Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 021853
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
253 pm edt thu jul 2 2026

.what has changed...
there is now an areawide slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe
weather on friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dangerous heat and humidity persist through the end of the week.

2) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return this evening
onward.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
heat and humidity continue one more day before the ridge of high
pressure breaks down. extreme heat warning for all of ohio and heat
advisory for northwest pennsylvania remain in effect through 8 pm
friday evening. overnight lows tonight and friday night will remain
in the 70s. forecast high temperatures on friday rise into the mid
90s areawide with heat index values of 100-108f. temperatures will
remain warm this weekend, but slightly lower in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. heat index values may top out around 100f on saturday,
but will be largely dependent on coverage of any showers and storms.
with the continued heat and limited overnight relief, the majority
of the forecast area remains under extreme heatrisk (level 4 of 4).
for people without effective cooling, especially heat-sensitive
groups, this level of heat can be deadly.

key message 2...
slight chance to chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for tonight as a disturbance rides over the top of
the ridge. any precipitation should occur after 8 pm tonight
and remain confined to lakeshore zones in northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. the spc has included counties along the
lakeshore in their day 1 marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather as any stronger thunderstorm that develops may be
capable of producing strong to damaging winds.

chances for showers and thunderstorms should increase tomorrow as
the ridge of high pressure exits the region. spc has upgraded the
day 2 severe weather outlook to a slight risk (level 2 of 5) across
the entire area with a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. best
potential for showers and thunderstorms will occur during evening
hours. however, the confidence in exact timing and placement of
strong to severe storms remains low at this time given weak forcing
aloft. strong to severe storms will remain possible through the
weekend as multiple shortwaves aloft move overhead. spc has
introduced a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for saturday. will hang on
to daily pops in the slight chance to chance range into early next
week.

given the very moist airmass in place with pwats of 1.5 to 2 inches
any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall both saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
few/sct cumulus clouds around 5 kft will continue this afternoon
and are expected again friday afternoon. southwest winds around
8-12 knots during the afternoon hours today and tomorrow with
lower winds (around 5 knots) tonight. gusts up to 20 knots are
possible during the afternoon.

there is a very low chance for thunderstorms near keri tonight.

outlook...greater potential for scattered storms friday through
sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each
day.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds around 10-15 knots will persist through the
weekend, and wave heights will generally be around a foot or a
less in the nearshore zones of lake erie, with some potential
for 2 ft waves with the effect of the lake breeze during the
afternoon. with low pressure moving into the region after
sunday, east to northeast flow on monday becomes northerly on
tuesday, with winds speeds around 10 knots.

&&

.climate...
very hot and humid weather is expected through friday. record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt friday for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt friday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 021811
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
211 pm edt thu jul 2 2026

.key messages...

- the extreme heat warning remains in effect area-wide through
this evening. highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices
between 100 to 110 degrees are expected this afternoon.

- the extreme heat warning continues through friday evening
mainly along and south of us 24. a heat advisory has been
issued for friday for the rest of the forecast area. peak heat
indices friday afternoon are expected to be between 100 to
105 degrees, highest in the warning area.

- there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on friday.
scattered storms are most likely between 2-11 pm edt with
damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and lightning as the main
threats.

- hot and humid for the 4th of july with up to 70% chances for
showers and storms. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. isolated storms are most likely between
2-11 pm edt with damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and
lightning as the main threats.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 210 pm edt thu jul 2 2026

one more day of dry conditions today before the expansive upper
level ridges begins to break down and flatten out, allowing for
rain/storm chances to return friday and into the holiday weekend.
high heat and humid continues today with the extreme heat warning in
effect area-wide. temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 80s
with dewpoints in the mid 70s. expect peak heat indices to 110
degrees this afternoon as temperatures once again climb into the low
to mid 90s for highs amidst mostly sunny skies.

an mcs is expected to develop later tonight in wi/il/ia and dive
southeast as the ridge weakens. this complex of storms is expected
to weaken but may survive long enough to yield some sps worthy
storms in our far northwest (especially la porte and berrien
counties) overnight. confidence is low as this system would arrive
at a diurnally unfavorable time and the environment is expected to
be capped overnight, but an isolated threat for strong winds is
still possible.

friday features both heat and convection, with higher confidence now
in both threats. it appears as if the convection, as of now, may not
impact peak diurnal heating (especially in our eastern half of the
area). given that high temperatures should still make it to the
upper 80s to mid 90s (highest in northwest ohio), heat headlines
have been issued for friday. the extreme heat warning was extended
until sunset friday along and south of us 24, while a heat advisory
was issued for the rest of the forecast area. peak heat indices
friday afternoon are expected to be between 100 to 105 degrees,
highest in the warning area. heatrisk is still showing major to
extreme for friday with our long duration heatwave continuing. high
heat and humidity is expected to fuel scattered rain/storms.
convective initiation is expected to occur between 19z-22z friday
along a remnant outflow boundary leftover from morning convection.
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on friday,
with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. multicell clusters of
storms may also be aided by an mcv moving through the great lakes.
microburst potential is favorable friday afternoon/evening,
especially given that the high heat and humidity could yield
explosive sbcape values of up to 4000 j/kg. other favorable
parameters include low level lapse rates in excess of 8 c/km and
pwats around 1.5". forecast soundings depict inverted v profiles
with dcape above 1000 j/kg, which also indicates elevated potential
for microbursts. in addition to the damaging wind threat tomorrow,
heavy rainfall and lightning will be hazards as well.

july 4th will not be a complete washout, however, there is still a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. saturday marks the
beginning of our slight cool down, with highs in the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. humid conditions stick around for the holiday though
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. with a stationary front in the
vicinity, continued heat and humidity will aid in thunderstorm
development by the afternoon and evening hours saturday. isolated
damaging wind gusts would be the main threat again in any strong
to severe storms; even if storms stay sub-severe, heavy rain and
lightning will still be hazards.

a trough ejecting out of the western us could bring additional
chances for showers and storms on sunday. while it may be slightly
`cooler` into early next week with highs in the 80s, the long term
pattern continues to favor above normal temperatures through mid
july. periodic chances for rain/storms next week as zonal flow aloft
continues.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 134 pm edt thu jul 2 2026

the ridge in the southeast us will continue to prevent storm
initiation around the area today into the first part of tonight. the
hrrr and the namnest both have storms dying upon vacating lk mi in
the 5 to 9z window, which may have some sps level winds (30 to maybe
50 mph) in the sbn area. otherwise, vfr conditions are expected to
prevail. southwest winds continue through the period, although, sbn
could get a quick bump more westerly as the outflow boundary goes
through. a lake breeze has initiated some showers that may
escalate to thunderstorms this afternoon, but it`s uncertain how
close to sbn they get so have left them out of the tafs at this
time. additionally, 10 kt sustained winds will be possible this
afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 kts as mixing into the llj
occurs.

we`ve also had some haze/ground fog each morning of the last few.
this one appears to be the first that dipped below 6sm and it was
only for an hour at sbn. this and the potential for convection
friday morning provides lesser confidence in morning haze/ground fog.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 1 am edt /midnight cdt/ friday for
inz005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
heat advisory from 1 am edt /midnight cdt/ to 8 pm edt /7 pm
cdt/ friday for inz005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt friday for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt friday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning until 1 am edt friday for miz078>081-177-
277.
heat advisory from 1 am to 8 pm edt friday for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 021900
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 pm edt thu jul 2 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid conditions will persist through friday afternoon.

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast from late tonight
through friday night. there is a chance for strong to severe storms
through this period.

- locally heavy rain and minor flooding is possible late friday and
friday night due to thunderstorms.

- while temperatures will be a litter cooler this weekend, the
chances for showers and thunderstorms, with an isolated risk for
strong to severe storms, will continue saturday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...

the 596dam ridge centered over the central appalachians continues to
drive heat and humidity across se mi. over the next couple of days,
mid level height falls across ern canada and numerous convective
complexes and associated short wave features across the upper
midwest/great lakes will suppress the ridge slightly southward. this
will result in an overall cooling trend over the next couple of
days, although shower/thunderstorm chances will be on the increase.

after convective outflow drove a little drier air into the boundary
layer across portions of the northern counties this morning, diurnal
heating and advection under sw flow still drove heat indices into
the mid 90s to low 100s over most of se mi this afternoon. recent
acars soundings continue to suggest much of se mi is fairly well
capped. departing mid level short wave features across the thumb and
southern lake huron this evening may cause some localized weakening
of the cap, thus supporting the risk of some isolated convection in
these areas. there is also some concern that the ongoing convergence
axis near the indiana border may support some localized weakening of
the cap south of the i-94 corridor this evening. otherwise, short
wave ridging/negative vorticity advection in the mid levels will
continue to suppress convective development across most of se mi
this evening.

sustained convective development is forecast across the upper
midwest tonight as nocturnal low level inflow intensifies. corfidi
vectors and thickness diffluence suggests a quasi stationary or
regenerative mcs upstream. however, hi res solutions indicate
several short wave impulses allowing for some forward propagating
convective elements into lower mi. forecast 0-3km mu cape up to 2500
j/kg as a result of the steep mid level lapse rates will warrant an
isolated severe risk out of any overnight storm.

based on various probabilistic temperature guidance, the excessive
heat warning was extended through friday along/south of i 69. the
expectation is for a heat advisory to be issued for the saginaw
valley and thumb region once the current warning expires. given
uncertainty on convection timing and coverage, there is the
possibility that the night shift or fri morning shift may have to
make some additional adjustments to these heat headlines. per
several hi res solutions, building instability during the day friday
will support ml cape values up to 2500 j/kg across at least the
south half of the forecast area. this degree of instability with 0-
6km bulk shear values around 25 knots will warrant a risk of
strong/severe storms. subtle cooling in the mid levels will weaken
the cap. this and inbound short wave features will aid in convective
development friday afternoon into friday night. the west-east
orientation of the low level baroclinic zone and steady feed of
moisture and instability raises the potential for training
convection and thus locally heavy rainfall.

short wave amplification is forecast across the western great lakes
over the weekend. there remains ample spread among the model suite
and ensemble members with respect to the timing and amplitude of
this wave. this leads to considerable uncertainty as to precise
timing of convection across se mi. the will result in an overall
high pop forecast this weekend, although there is likely to be dry
periods. weak to moderate instability will warrant a risk of
strong/severe storms through the weekend.

&&

.marine...

high pressure remains nearly stationary over the southern
appalachians through the late week, maintaining a feed of a hot and
humid air into the great lakes. prevailing wind remains from the
south and southwest at 10 to 15 kt with gusts generally capped
around or below 20 kt. isolated storms are possible through tonight,
mainly around lake huron, but stable conditions across the region
keep the probability low. an uptick in shower/storm coverage is
forecast friday and this weekend as the cap weakens and the
predominant storm track shifts south. isolated severe thunderstorms
will be possible, capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 50 kt
and large hail. a cold front sinks south on saturday, bringing light
north to northeast wind that tends to veer east by sunday.

&&

.hydrology...

clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to develop friday afternoon
into friday night. while there is some uncertainty as to the
location of the more persistent thunderstorms, current forecast
indications are that locations south of the i-69 corridor have the
better potential for thunderstorms. if thunderstorms do development,
they are most likely to become oriented west to east with a good
chance for storms to train over the same area. there is expected to
be a wide range in rainfall totals across the region. localized areas
of one inch or more of rain is possible in areas that see the
persistent thunderstorm activity. rainfall rates in these areas are
likely to reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. if these storms set up over
urbanized areas, localized flooding is possible. additional periods
of showers and thunderstorms are forecast saturday and sunday, which
will add to rainfall totals. higher amounts will again be localized.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1252 pm edt thu jul 2 2026

aviation...

a broad area of high pressure centered on the se states continues to
funnel hot and humid air into lower mi today. part of the building
daytime heat was a few hours of late morning mvfr cumulus that
struggled to produce a ceiling and is now mixing into regular
scattered coverage for the afternoon. details on thunderstorm
potential also remain elusive in terms of timing and coverage,
especially since the morning outflow boundary washed out before
producing any new convection. there is a low chance for lake breeze
focused convection this afternoon and evening, and then a late night
time window during which storms from the midwest move in while
dissipating. it is still best to add a storm mention in later
updates should a trend solidify predictability. conditions are
otherwise vfr this afternoon through tonight and friday morning.

d21/dtw convection... there is an isolated thunderstorm potential
for the d21 airspace this afternoon and evening, and again late
tonight and friday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorm potential this afternoon through friday
morning.

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-
053>055.

extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt friday for miz060>063-068>070-
075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......tf
hydrology....sc
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.