Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
384
fxus61 kcle 141836
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
236 pm edt thu may 14 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast. warming trend to commence as
expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) warming trend with summer-like conditions early next week.

2) slightly cooler mid week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
significant upper level pattern change with the exit of the upper
level trough that cooled the region down today into the 50s and 60s
once again, with 40s over nw pa. temperatures rebound to near normal
friday in zonal flow aloft, which will become upper level ridging
through the weekend into early next week. 850mb temperatures by
monday will have climbed into the upper teens, translating to near
90f in places for the warmest weather of the season so far. a
stationary front will drape itself in the vicinity of the cwa
saturday through sunday with a return for showers and storms, where
a marginal threat for severe clips the far western zones for late
saturday. this stationary boundary becomes a warm front sunday
night, assisting in the warm up for early next week that will be
characterized by well above normal temperatures. dewpoints to climb
to late spring/summer values in the 65-70f range as convective
chances increase tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

key message 2...
another upper trough digs into the great lakes for the end of the
week, dropping temperatures back to normal or slightly below normal
for the area, but this will not be a return to the cooler type
weather that has plagued the area for the first half of may. rain
chances will continue behind the cold front through wednesday night
before largely coming to an end thursday and temperatures closer to
the 70f mark for thursday.



&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
lake enhanced cloud cover will continue to push to the east
through tonight as high pressure builds over the region.
lingering mvfr ceilings across eastern sites (kyng/keri) will
exit through the evening and overnight hours. elsewhere, expect
vfr conditions to continue through the taf period.

gusty northwest winds 20-30 knots across terminals this
afternoon will become light and variable overnight tonight.
expect winds to turn generally southwest to south friday
morning/early afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms saturday afternoon and evening. additional non-vfr
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms sunday
afternoon and evening, though chances are lower.

&&

.marine...
onshore flow 15-20 knots will continue through this evening
allowing for wave heights of 3 to 5 feet to remain across the
central basin. have extended the small craft advisory through 4
pm this afternoon. high pressure will build overhead allowing
for improving marine conditions for friday. southwest winds 5 to
15 knots will return on saturday and continue through the
weekend. there remains the potential for showers and
thunderstorms on the lake this weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
835
fxus63 kiwx 141825
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
225 pm edt thu may 14 2026

.key messages...

- periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms starts friday
and continues into tuesday or wednesday of next week.

- greatest chance for severe weather appears to be on monday
(slight risk), but we also already have a marginal risk of
severe weather for saturday.

- increasing warmth and humidity is forecast for between
saturday and tuesday. a 40% chance for highs of at least 80
degrees exists for areas south of us-30 on saturday and a high
chance (at least 80%) for 80 degree high temperatures exists
along and south of us-24 on tuesday. a majority of the area
surpasses 80 degrees on sunday and monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 216 pm edt thu may 14 2026

lower theta-e airmass pushes through the area today as surface high
pressure slides eastward. we were able to dip down into the mid to
upper 30s last night with the light winds and mostly clear skies.
850 mb temperatures warm from 0c this morning to 7c friday morning
and we have high clouds knocking on the door during the overnight,
which should allow a bit of a floor for temperatures above 40
degrees.

then, mid level ridging on the high`s tail and weak height falls
paired with low level moisture advection signify an attempt to
produce rain friday morning. the modest shortwave paired with this
activity is quickly through the area though and that rain should be
through the area by midday or the early afternoon.

a theta-e plume pushes into the area friday night and early saturday
morning and a shortwave arrives in the flow later friday night to
saturday morning with the potential to produce rain again. the nam
appears to be stronger with available shear for saturday morning
with 25 to 35 kts whereas the ecmwf and gfs appear to be closer to
20 to 30 kts. instability and moisture content increase during the
morning with dew points reaching 60f and mucape surpassing 1000
j/kg. there will also be pockets of better moisture in the low to
mid levels of the atmospheric column allowing for a heavy rain
potential. there is lift available with times of large scale ascent.
weak mbe vectors and boundary parallel flow may allow for
backbuilding or training. through the day, the heavy rain parameters
and moisture content appear to dry out some so even as the vectors
appear to zero each other out, heavy rain may be harder to come by
at all. perhaps there could also be some moisture loaded cores
dropping out to create marginally severe wind gusts. dcape increases
through the afternoon.

the biggest thing to worry about sunday is that a warm front moves
northward so instability moves into the area with 1000 to 2000 j/kg
of mucape and 20 to 30 kts of effective shear (highest near lk mi).
forcing will be the limiting factor of this, but if a lake breeze
can develop (may be unlikely given southeast sfc winds), perhaps
there`d be enough forcing to start some thunderstorms.

a much better moisture surge comes in for monday with sfc dew points
reaching the upper 60s to low 70s fahrenheit and a low level jet
filling across the area. in theory and in pattern recognition, this
would bring the best chance for severe weather between saturday and
tuesday, but shear is a limiting factor. we`ve got 1000+ j/kg of
mucape, but only the gfs introduces a pocket of 30 kts of effective
shear during the evening. so, we`ll have to use cell collisions and
boundary interactions to get necessary lift. an eml works in sunday
night into monday morning and that may also be able to help create
larger hail despite a lack of shear.

model differences emerge on tuesday as a wave ejects out of the
southwest. typical model biases show themselves with the ecmwf
taking longer to eject a wave out of the southwest and the gfs being
much faster with that evolution. the aigfs is closer to the ecmwf`s
speed. as a result of this difference, the gfs brings a cold front
through earlier tuesday, whereas the ecmwf holds on until wednesday
night. so, a tuesday or wednesday severe weather event is possible
with the cold frontal passage, but there still remains uncertainty
in timing it out.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 130 pm edt thu may 14 2026

high pressure and dry air in the low levels will maintain vfr
conditions through the period. mid/upper level clouds will
steadily increase overnight into friday as high pressure exits
and return flow develops but anticipate dry/vfr conditions
through this forecast period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
429
fxus63 kdtx 141848
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
248 pm edt thu may 14 2026

.key messages...

- dry end of the week conditions.

- heat and humidity setting up this weekend and continuing through
wednesday. the potential exists for temperatures in the middle 80s
monday and tuesday.

- multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with low
confidence on timing and coverage of rain.

&&

.discussion...

amplified upper level pattern that has resulted in cool below normal
conditions over the great lakes recently will persist for another 24
to 48 hours before shifting into an active, zonal northern stream
for southeast michigan. western periphery of closed 500mb low will
squeeze to the east this evening allowing the center of a surface
anticyclone to build overhead. moderation of 850mb temperatures
happens enough +3-6c tonight to keep low temperatures buoyed in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. no frost or freeze headlines will be issued.

pacific jet streak exit region and upper level low will impact far
northwestern ontario tonight and friday. absolute vorticity
filament will extend to the south and push across the forecast area
friday afternoon. thetae advection remains relegated to above 13.0
kft agl with strong static stability in the midlevels. high
confidence in nothing more than virga or a rogue sprinkle. highs
friday will reach around 70 degrees.

zonal ridging will build rapidly over southeast michigan by the
start of the day saturday with high confidence the main warm front
and baroclinic zone sharpens well to the north of lake superior and
lake huron. uncertainty exists with regards to the track and
longevity of upstream convection and associated mcv as it tracks
towards southeast michigan during the daytime saturday. from this
vantage point, greatest forcing will arrive in the form of moisture
transport or thetae advection as an apex in deeper 850mb to 500mb
thetae is directed through the area south of saginaw bay. a big
question exists on timing of the convective wave as a subset of
guidance (hrrr and hires gem) suggests arrival at/around daybreak
saturday. the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms saturday
is not only dependent on the timing (morning vs afternoon) but also
with the amount of debris cloud to limit destabilization in the
lowest 6.0 kft agl. the latest swody3 has southeast michigan
designated as general thunder, but it it something to monitor.

strong energy in the pacific northwest will lead to downstream ridge
amplification over the great lakes region beginning early sunday and
lasting through the early to midweek time period. good signal exists
amongst nwp that a broader llj exit region will force a secondary
warm front through lower michigan sunday. low confidence on whether
any convection will be able to survive over the area with indications
an anticyclonic vorticity bubble will roll through the area during
the daylight hours and enforce capping cin in the 2.0 to 6.0 kft agl
layer. with the most humid air of the season, the main narrative for
sunday through tuesday becomes one of summerlike conditions. the
current data suggests surface dewpoints in the 60s monday and
tuesday with heat indices well into the 80s (conditional to clouds).
will need to get closer to event time, but forecast soundings at
this range suggest relatively lower mixing heights monday that
could put the lid on compressional warming, keeping highs more in
the middle 80s rage. the upper level jet axis will then begin to
push eastwards towards lower michigan that will eventually bring the
area in target of upstream convection. very low confidence exists on
timing and duration of shower and thunderstorm activity late monday
through wednesday. the current day 5 slight risk that eclipses
portions of the cwa appears dependent on the amount of convective
instability that is being projected upstream over portions of
illinois eastward into southwest lower michigan.

&&

.marine...

high pressure drifts over the great lakes this evening, with
northwest flow continuing to subside as the gradient relaxes. flow
then shifts to the south-southeast early friday morning as the
surface ridge moves east. winds then become more organized through
the day friday, sustained around 15 to 20 knots by the evening as
the next surface trough approaches the great lakes region. this
system sends a wave of showers and thunderstorms into the area
saturday morning, with an unsettled pattern continuing into early
next week as the surface trough washes out over the midwest. winds
may become breezy at times through the weekend with gusts
approaching 25 knots.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt thu may 14 2026

aviation...

high pressure building into the area is resulting in widespread vfr
conditions. northerly winds are gusting into the 20 knot range which
should go light and variable overnight as the ridge axis passes
overhead. some diurnal cu popped up this afternoon but should clear
out this evening before cirrus starts streaming back in later
tonight which will slowly lower through the day friday.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are in the forecast today
through friday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......cb
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.