Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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163
fxus61 kcle 170627
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
227 am edt mon aug 17 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains on track and no major changes were needed
with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) the next chance of widespread showers and storms will be with
a cold front on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will move east across the area this morning.
scattered showers are possible this morning with a few
thunderstorms possible near the front in southern zones during
peak diurnal heating this afternoon. the best instability will
be to the south of the cwa so severe weather is not expected.

from there, dry weather is expected tonight through much of
tuesday night. by early wednesday morning, rain chances will
increase ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. showers
will progress southeastward across the area wednesday morning
into the afternoon and there may be some convection inland from
lake erie during the afternoon. overall, instability seems
meager in comparison to recent days and guidance suggests that
qpf will be relatively light so the chance of severe weather and
heavy rainfall are low at this point. a dry and cooler air mass
will arrive behind the front thursday and friday with below
normal highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s expected.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
overcast conditions linger through the overnight period with
widely variable ceilings ranging from vfr 5,000 ft ceilings to
lifr ceilings as low as 200 ft. patchy br/fg is also expected.
lifr is most likely where greatest rain occured yesterday
afternoon, including near kyng and kcak.

conditions will gradually improve after sunrise through the rest
of the morning hours, giving way to sct/bkn clouds in the
3,000-5,000 ft range. clouds will continue to scatter out
through the rest of the afternoon/evening with vfr conditions
expected.

outlook...non-vfr possible on wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
winds ahead of a cold front are starting southwest to west
around 10 knots. winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold
front overnight with 10 to 15 kts of onshore flow expected.
waves may bump up a bit, but incoming high pressure will quickly
taper off the northwest flow to 10 kts or less on monday and
allow for any waves to diminish. high pressure will move south
of the lake for tuesday and light southerly flow will return to
the lake. a cold front will approach and cross the lake for
wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and storms and winds
shifting from southerly to northwesterly. cool high pressure
will be in place for thursday and friday and maintain light
north to northeast flow across the basin through the end of the
week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...saunders
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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897
fxus63 kiwx 170746
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
346 am edt mon aug 17 2026

.key messages...

- isolated showers and storms will slowly exit our area this
morning.

- the next chance of rain arrives tuesday night into wednesday.
severe weather is not expected and the risk of heavy rain is
currently low.

- there is a moderate swim risk for southern lake michigan
beaches today.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 346 am edt mon aug 17 2026

isolated showers and storms continue this morning thanks to one last
remnant mcv ejecting out of ia/il and a weak surface cold front
crossing our cwa very slowly. the best negative theta-e advection
doesn`t start until after 12z and doesn`t fully encapsulate our se
cwa until late afternoon. have therefore added some low chance pop`s
south of us-24 through mid-afternoon. no substantive impacts
anticipated with these storms. poor moisture/instability and weak
forcing will limit both coverage and intensity. highs today remain
in the mid 70s to around 80 with increasing sun from north to south.
there will be a fairly sharp gradient in dewpoints/humidity from
low/mid 60s north to low 70s south. lows tonight will be on the cool
side with at least partial clearing, light winds, and lower
dewpoints yielding mid/upper 50s.

most of tue will remain dry but the next chance of rain arrives tue
night as an upper low crosses northern ontario and sends another
cold front through the region. moisture return ahead of this front
is not great given predominately westerly flow and diurnal timing
remains unfavorable for deep convection, especially given midlevel
lapse rates below 6 c/km. there`s still a low chance storms could
sneak into our far nw prior to sunset tue evening and may pose an
isolated threat for gusty winds as suggested by some 00z cam`s but
regardless not expecting severe weather at this time. this front
becomes increasingly orphaned from parent forcing by early wed and
most ensemble guidance maintains some precip chances for at least
our southern zones through the day wed. here again, both forcing and
instability are on the meager side for an organized severe weather
threat. even the potential for heavy rain seems on the low side
given lackluster moisture and forcing. our southern cwa will likely
still be highly susceptible to any heavy rain though and there are
some hints it could be possible early wed thanks to mean flow
largely parallel to the front. will watch this aspect of the
forecast closely.

high pressure/dry conditions return wed night and persist through at
least fri. the next trough/cold front passes on sat with what looks
to be light rain/low thunder chances. there is still a lot of spread
on how exactly this weekend system evolves but strong northerly flow
behind it could bring the coolest air we have seen in some time
(850mb temps potentially below 10c).

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 132 am edt mon aug 17 2026

weak cold front continues to slowly cross the area this morning.
showers and storms remain possible at kfwa through the late
morning but coverage will be very limited given poor moisture
and forcing. will therefore hold off on mentioning anything in
the taf. mvfr ceilings likely (especially at kfwa) this morning
given some caa and residual boundary layer moisture. return to
vfr by the afternoon with clearing skies and light winds to end
the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 170729
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
329 am edt mon aug 17 2026

.key messages...

- dry, seasonably average conditions for the early week period.

- some scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible tuesday late
afternoon-evening in saginaw valley and thumb. wider spread showers
cross tuesday night with the arrival of the next cold front.

-slightly below normal temperatures from midweek into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

cold front currently residing near detroit at time of discussion
finishes clearing south of the area early this morning with
satellite obs showing developing stratus over the northern cwa.
ongoing weak cold advection supports the expansion of this low cloud
across the bulk of the region by mid-morning before diurnal heating
and improving mixing heights gradually scatter it this afternoon.
cooler airmass (850mb temps 11-12c) in combination with the healthy
coverage of am cloud cover hold highs right around average in the
low 80s. similar day in store for tuesday albeit a few degrees
warmer with sunnier skies to start the day before clouds return late
day marking the arrival of another cold frontal boundary sagging
through the great lakes.

prefrontal trough centered over northern lower mi looks to slide
across northern lake huron tuesday late afternoon-evening with the
saginaw valley/thumb sitting near its southern edge. favorable
timing within the diurnal window offers several hundred j/kg of
mlcape to be in place over the northern portions of the cwa
supporting chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms. wider spread
rain chances arrive tuesday night with the frontal boundary itself.
showers are predominate with isolated thunder given only a few
hundred j/kg of elevated instability available. bulk of activity
pushes out of se mi by the daylight hours wednesday morning though
some lingering pockets of light showers/drizzle are possible through
the morning as the elevated portions of the frontal slope are slow
to vacate.

cold frontal passage brings a reinforcing push of cooler air as
850mb temps fall to around 10c. as such, slightly below normal
temperatures are favored from wednesday on with highs in 70s to low
80s and overnight lows in the 50s. arrival of a respectable mid-
level shortwave from the canadian prairie amplifies the upper trough
over the great lakes next weekend maintaining slightly below normal
temps as well as offering additional rain chances.

&&

.marine...

high pressure is building into the region in the wake of sunday`s
cold front. the winds have become northwesterly while increasing to
15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots across lake huron. the
increased northwesterly winds will reach lake st clair and lake erie
by morning but gusts should only top out in the 15 to 20 knot range.
the winds increase will cause waves to increase to 3 to 5 feet in
the nearshore zones of lake huron thus a small craft advisory has
been issued through this morning. the area of high pressure will
persist through most of tuesday keeping the northerly flow around
but at tempered speeds. next chance of thunderstorms comes late
tuesday with the next cold front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1149 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

aviation...

925mb cold front is poised to push southward through southeast
michigan between 06-12z this morning. low level cold advection will
help steepen near surface lapse rates and lead to mvfr stratus over
all of the area. given trends this evening did push the onset of the
mvfr cigs back a couple of hours. cloud is expected to hold into the
day on monday before rising mixing heights cause ceilings to lift
low vfr .

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are anticipated at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling below 5000 feet tonight and monday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until noon edt today for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......drk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.