Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
139
fxus61 kcle 191104
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
704 am edt sun jul 19 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are likely late monday through
tuesday. storms may be strong to severe on tuesday.

2) cooler temperatures and patchy wildfire smoke return today
with a brief warmup expected monday into tuesday. below normal
temperatures return for mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will briefly build over the region today through
much of monday before exiting to the east monday night. the
departure of the high will allow a warm front to lift into a
region as an unseasonably dynamic low pressure system tracks
east to the north of the upper great lakes. a weakening complex
of thunderstorms may move southeast into the area late monday
night into early tuesday morning, which could leave behind
boundaries for additional convection development as a strong
cold front moves into the area during the day and possibly into
tuesday evening. the dynamic wind field will provide plenty of
shear to support organized convection, although there is still
uncertainty in instability given the potential for early day
showers/storms and residual clouds. regardless, there is
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms at some point on
tuesday, although confidence in the timing/placement of strong
storms is still low due to uncertainty in mesoscale features and
the trajectory of monday night`s weakening convection. it`s
possible that the greater severe weather risk will be to the
southeast of the local area.

storms should exit to the east by tuesday night, although
continued upper level troughing could lead to additional lake-
enhanced rain showers into wednesday.

key message 2...
after a period of hot and humid weather, temperatures will be
much more comfortable with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and
dew points in the 50s expected. tonight`s lows will be the
coolest in quite some time with widespread 50s anticipated.
northerly flow will bring some wildfire smoke into the area
today and possibly into tonight. conditions may be a bit hazy at
times, but impacts to visibilities/air quality will not be as
severe as the last several days.

temperatures will warm up by a few degrees monday/tuesday with
humidity returning in the warm sector tuesday. cloud cover and
precipitation may result in cooler temperatures than currently
forecast on tuesday, but as mentioned in the first key message
discussion, there is some uncertainty in precipitation timing
and placement in addition to cloud cover during the day tuesday.
cold air advection behind the strong cold front will cause
temperatures to fall to below normal values wednesday/thursday
with temps gradually recovering starting friday.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
mixed-bag of vfr and mvfr conditions across the taf sites this
morning, associated with pockets of lower vsbys due to wildfire
haze/smoke. anticipate vsbys to gradually improve to vfr by mid-
morning, though 6sm haze may linger through much of the day and
potentially overnight.

winds will remain out of the north today, 8 to 10 knots,
becoming light and variable this evening. winds at cle/eri may
favor a slight southerly direction overnight as a weak land
breeze develops.

outlook...pockets of non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms
monday night through tuesday. some thunderstorms tuesday
afternoon and evening may contain strong wind gusts. residual
non-vfr possible on wednesday on rain showers across the eastern
half of the area.

&&

.marine...
marine conditions will gradually improve across the lake this
morning as winds subside to 10 knots or less by the afternoon.
the next period of concern for rough marine conditions and
marine headlines will be on tuesday as southwest winds of 15 to
25 knots develop ahead of a cold front. rough marine conditions
will continue through wednesday as winds shift towards the
northwest behind the front, around 20 knots, ushering in waves
of 3 to 5 feet. in addition, strong thunderstorm wind gusts are
possible across lake erie monday night into tuesday ahead of the
front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 8 am edt this morning for
ohz009>012-089.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for
lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
889
fxus63 kiwx 191021
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
621 am edt sun jul 19 2026

.key messages...

- smoke from canadian wildfires will continue to bring periods
of poor air quality and reduced visibility through at least
monday.

- moderate swim risk conditions are expected along lake mi
beaches in berrien county, mi and la porte county, in this
morning. dangerous waves and currents are possible. conditions
look to improve further through the day.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms return monday
night into tuesday. some of the storms may become strong to
severe.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 359 am edt sun jul 19 2026

pretty quiet day weather wise today in the wake of the cool
front that pushed through last evening. highs right around 80
today and will be noticeably drier with dew points in the upper
50s to low 60s. with the northwest flow aloft, smoke from the
wildfires in northern minnesota and canada will transit aloft
but without the ridging to cap things off some mixing out should
occur during the days for near surface but in the evenings and
overnights could see some of the smoke make it`s way back to
the surface.

another shortwave trough makes its way southeastward into the
lower great lakes region late monday and an associated cold
front will push through the area monday night into tuesday. spc
currently has parts of our area under marginal to slight risk
for both monday night and again on tuesday. confidence is low on
the exact evolution as the timing seems less than ideal with any
strong to severe storms moving southeastward on monday in wi/il
not getting into the area until after 10 pm edt on monday, this
should mitigate the near surface instability with the downward
diurnal temperature trend. the same can be said for tuesday as
the front pushes southeastward through the remainder of the area
and looks to do so from about 10 am until 4 pm edt. so the
better instability looks to exist for areas in our farthest
southeastern parts of the cwa. forecasted bulk shear values at
this time also looks less than ideal with values less than 25
kts. the timing of the frontal passage also will have a big
impact on the exact evolution with a slower transition may make
for better timing and potential of stronger storms. so will
definitely need to watch this carefully but as of right now the
spc has parts of our ares under marginal to slight risk for
severe storms for both monday night and on tuesday.

with the cold front pushing through tuesday cooler and drier
weather will usher into the area through the rest of the week
with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s
wednesday through friday and just a few degrees warmer for
saturday and sunday with highs in the mid 80s. so a likely
welcomed return to more seasonable and comfortable weather.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 619 am edt sun jul 19 2026

mvfr vsby for ksbn through 13z today in smoke/haze. otherwise,
vfr conditions expected with light variable to northerly winds
around 5kts through the taf period for both sites.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
577
fxus63 kdtx 190947
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
547 am edt sun jul 19 2026

.key messages...

- a statewide air quality alert today as additional wildfire smoke
filters across michigan.

- the next round of showers and thunderstorms arrives monday night
into tuesday that poses a marginal risk for severe weather.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure will build across the area today resulting in light
winds and a few clouds aoa 5kft. could be some passing cirrus as
well. winds will start off northerly with the center of the high off
to the west, but will become light and southeasterly, or variable,
this evening as the ridge axis passes over before emerging out of
the southwest tonight into monday. big question today will be the
extent of smoke from the wildfires. models suggest the densest plume
should be overhead this morning before the northerly, then easterly
winds shunt the axis of smoke westward. obs don`t currently support
it but as we begin mixing this morning we might bring some down
toward the surface. so will begin with a hz mention with tempo for
vsby restrictions with the smoke, before bringing improved
conditions this afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the next
30 hours.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 am edt sun jul 19 2026

discussion...

post frontal northerly winds will usher in a cooler airmass today
bringing daytime highs down to a few degrees below seasonal norms.
high temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 70s to low
80s. the northerly winds will also allow wildfire smoke from canada
to linger over the state with another band of near-surface smoke
funneling down through southeast michigan early today. thus, the air
quality alert is in place again today and for all of southeast
michigan. smoke models do show lesser concentrations over much of
southeast michigan by this evening into tonight, but hanging out
over the western portion of the state.

high pressure moves across the state today and drifts off the mid-
atlantic coast tomorrow. this will bring stable conditions and a
forecast free of precipitation through tomorrow afternoon. passing of
the high pressure will lead to southwest return flow, which may draw
nearby wildfire smoke back into the area monday. it will also bring
warmer air back into the region along with slightly better moisture.
this will result in temperatures tomorrow afternoon right around
normal values. deeper moisture will arrive tomorrow night driven by
the mid-upper jet and a shortwave moving across the great lakes
will support the next chance at showers and thunderstorms. the
after midnight arrival will carry some uncertainty in regards to the
severe weather potential. however, models want to hang on to
instability during the arrival as bulk shear values also increase
with improving mid-level lapse rates. latest spc outlook has expanded
the marginal risk for severe weather through all of southeast
michigan with a sliver of slight risk across the far northwest
portion of the cwa. damaging winds and brief heavy downpours are
forecast to be the main threats.

trailing cold front during the day tuesday will keep a chance for
showers and possible thunderstorms during the early afternoon as a
secondary shortwave drops through the central great lakes. any
organized convection during this time frame will depend on how the
morning activity plays out and if there is enough instability that is
able to redevelop in the wake of morning convection. passage of the
cold front will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures for wednesday
with 850mb temperatures that fall to below 10c. the result will
daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. surface high
pressure should keep conditions mostly dry wednesday into thursday
with a chance for light spotty showers along a frontal boundary being
pushed south by an eastern canada trough.

marine...

post-frontal high pressure builds back into the central great lakes
today supporting drier conditions and a return to prevailing winds
below headline criteria through the rest of the weekend. unsettled
conditions may develop late monday and monday night, as a strong low
pressure system tracks across central/southern ontario. gusty winds
ahead of the attendant front may lead to a period of small craft
advisory conditions, particularly across saginaw bay where
southwesterly flow could channel more efficiently. potential for
showers and thunderstorms increases across the waterways with this
system, leading to periods of locally higher winds and waves.
showery weather could persist into tuesday before high pressure from
manitoba builds in tuesday night or wednesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.