Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
999
fxus61 kcle 201838
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
138 pm est fri feb 20 2026

.what has changed...
winds across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania trended
slightly higher this afternoon. we expanded the wind advisory
for all of northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.key messages...
1) gusty winds are expected behind a cold front this afternoon.

2) more seasonable temperatures and potential for accumulating snow
return to the area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the cold front has completely pushed through the area as of
midday. strong, gusty winds have followed behind the cold front
with measured wind gusts between 45 to 55 mph areawide. we
expanded the wind advisory for all of northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania in effect until 7 pm this evening. high
temperatures for today have already occurred this morning
reaching the middle to upper 50s. the milder weather is now gone
for a while. temperatures are crashing behind the front and will
fall into the 30s this afternoon. scattered snow flurries will
move in from west to east across the area this afternoon and
evening. there is the potential for some scattered lake effect
snow showers to develop this evening and overnight for the
snowbelt of far neoh and nwpa. a dusting to an inch or two is
possible towards nwpa by saturday morning.

key message 2...
the colder and more winter like weather pattern will return
this weekend into early next due to an upper level trough that
will develop over the great lakes and ohio valley region.
saturday will be mostly dry but overcast and chilly. high
temperatures will be in the 30s. the upper level trough really
sharpens up by saturday night and sunday. colder flow will move
over the great lakes. the ice on lake erie has opened up quite
a bit away from the lakeshore. we will see scattered light snow
showers areawide starting saturday night and continue through
monday. scattered lake effect or lake enhanced snow showers will
develop and favor both the primary and secondary snowbelt sunday
morning through through monday night. snowfall totals will
average 1 to 2 inches for areas outside of the snowbelt. areas
in the snowbelt may see 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up
to 6 inches possible. high temperatures will generally be in the
30s and overnight lows in the teens and 20s. a broad trough will
continue over the great lakes region by the middle of next week
with temperatures moderating into the 40s.


&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
a strong occluded front is making its way across the area this
afternoon, bringing with it strong winds. ahead of the boundary
there are primarily vfr ceilings are being observed, but along
and behind the front there are widespread mvfr ceilings. these
ceilings will push east, keeping all terminals in mvfr
conditions for the bulk of this taf period. this front will also
bring the potential for some light rain/snow showers,
especially across the eastern terminals. opted to include a
chance of rain/snow in tempos for kyng and keri near 00z then
persist at keri through 08z saturday.

as previously mentioned, strong winds are expected with this
cold front across the area. winds sustained from the southwest
at 20-30 knots will periodically gust up to 40 knots this
afternoon. after 00z these winds will gain a more westerly
component and very slowly begin to weaken in strength with 30
knot gusts possible through 06z and 20 knots possible through
12z saturday. after that, area winds will become sustained at
10-12 knots through the end of the period.

outlook...non-vfr conditions continue into the weekend with low
ceilings on saturday and snow returning sunday and monday.

&&

.marine...
a low pressure system will continue to slowly drift east today
into tonight, keeping elevated winds possible across lake erie.
observations this afternoon are generally from the southwest
sustained at 20-25 knots, gusting up to 35-40 knots at times.
these strong winds are expected to persist through the evening,
keeping the risk of ice floes across lake erie elevated. any ice
that breaks/shifts has the potential to strand people who are on
the ice or close shipping lanes. it is still strongly encouraged
to stay off the ice today.

as this low shifts east, a lingering surface trough will result
in winds shifting to become northwesterly by sunday at 10-15
knots. this surface trough will merge with a strong low pressure
system that is expected to move up the east coast sunday into
monday, gradually increasing the gradient across lake erie.
winds from the north-northwest will increase late sunday into
monday to be sustained at 20-25 knots. these winds will weaken
on tuesday as a surface ridge nudges north to be sustained at
10-15 knots. another low pressure system is expected to impact
the region midweek.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
145
fxus63 kiwx 201928
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
228 pm est fri feb 20 2026

.key messages...

- snow/drizzle dissipates by tonight allowing for a dry
saturday.

- snow returns saturday through much of monday with around 4
inches possible mainly across laporte and berrien county, but
also across northwestern st joseph county.

- another system arrives tuesday into tuesday night with light
snow

- trending warmer for the end of the work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 205 pm est fri feb 20 2026

the vigorous shortwave associated with the upper low causing the
precipitation across the area today shifts east-northeastward toward
upstate ny and this continues to open the access point for cold air
to enter the region. subsidence behind the wave, allows this
snow/drizzle mix to shut off this afternoon into the evening as dry
air pushes in from the southwest. expect winds to calm down this
evening as the llj pushes eastward and mixing relaxes. we`re also
back to the cool weather as lows tonight drop back into the mid to
upper 20s tonight.

after a dry day saturday, moisture returns later saturday as another
shortwave approaches from the southwest. there are signs that precip
may pick up later afternoon or the evening as lake enhanced
instability returns and, that paired with lift and convergence,
allows for a return of lake effect snow. lake enhanced inversion
heights rise quickly after 00z saturday evening, reaching 5 to 6 kft
by around 6z. however, delta ts are still relatively modest at
around 15 degrees. there is some transience to any bands that form
with a sfc trough or two moving through and there may be a
preference towards a multibanded structure. moisture begins to dry
out sunday night/monday allowing a drop in inversion heights at that
point. there`s fairly decent agreement in advisory level snowfall
for berrien, laporte, and northern parts of st joseph county between
6z sat night to 6z sun night. lake effect snow is expected to slowly
push out later monday/monday night as sfc high pressure arrives, dry
air takes over, and trajectories change to more southerly.

waa ensues tuesday as a clipper system dives into mi. look for more
snow between tuesday afternoon and tuesday night. the next system is
hot on its tails with a combination of snow and rain for wednesday
afternoon and night (the aigfs aligns more with gem/ecmwf timing
than traditional gfs). friday looks drier as high pressure passes by
to the south.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1230 pm est fri feb 20 2026

majority of the precipitation has departed both sites. can`t
rule out some lighter snowshowers/flurries for a few hours at
ksbn so have left the vcsh mention in. gusty winds will slowly
diminish later this afternoon into this evening. cloud cover is
expected to stick around at both sites as upper low continues to
send additional waves through the flow. trend towards vfr still
appear likely after 6z, but could end up more a higher end mvfr.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
328
fxus63 kdtx 202041
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
341 pm est fri feb 20 2026

.key messages...

- a wind advisory remains in effect along/south of i-69 today for
southwesterly gusts to 45 mph.

- seasonably cooler this weekend with light snow likely saturday
night and on sunday. an inch to localized 2 inches is most likely.

- cold monday into monday night with wind chill in the single digits
at times.

- additional opportunities for snowfall late tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

center of low pressure has migrated over northern lower mi with kdtx
vad wind profile starting to sample 50 kt within its llj the past
hour. abundant stratus is limiting mixing depths which has dampened
the surface wind response compared to earlier today, but will hold on
to the wind advisory as the llj peaks overhead over the next few
hours. wind magnitude will then ease through the evening as mixing
depths shrink and the llj departs east. the gradient will remain in
place through tonight as the low stalls over lake huron, supportive
of gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range much of the night. moisture will
continue to wrap around the occluded system to produce pockets of
light rain, drizzle, and light snow through this evening. southern
areas should trend dry overnight, but the thumb and tri-cities have a
20 to 30% chance for additional light snow through saturday morning.
any minor accumulations should be limited to grassy surfaces.

complex upper air pattern tonight into saturday with an amplified
ridge over ontario squeezed between troughing over new england and
the northern plains. as today`s upper low shears out and departs
into new england, the great lakes region is left within a relative
col which allows inverted sfc-700mb troughing to be orphaned off
overhead through the weekend. cool, cyclonic flow persists across
the state with widespread stratus remaining pervasive. temperatures
saturday will be relatively mild with highs in the mid 30s to lower
40s, then sunday will be a return to typical mid february with lower
to mid 30s.

a series of shortwaves will dig from the northern plains into the
tennessee valley this weekend, dislodging the resident troughing
while inducing localized height falls and cold advection across the
state late saturday night and sunday. a lobe of the sfc trough is
modeled to sink southward sunday morning and bring a round of light
snowfall to much of se mi. temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30
will allow for minor accumulations of around an inch before noon.
coverage of snow will decrease during the afternoon but additional
lobes of vorticity aloft with offer the potential for more localized
intervals of snow showers continuing into sunday evening. fresh cold
advection behind the morning trough will result in steep low-level
lapse rates and weak instability intersecting the dgz, with models
also indicating pockets of 900-800mb omega as well. so some locally
heavier snow showers will be possible at times sunday afternoon and
evening, with quick localized accumulations of an additional inch
where any occur.

temperatures trend downward for monday and monday night within
continued cool cyclonic flow, but chances for snow look slim as
height rises commence. the middle of next week looks to be an active
period with several windows for additional precip. the first occurs
late tuesday into tuesday night when a quick hitting warm advection
/ isentropic ascent snow event is noted in the bulk of guidance.
ensemble members support a general 1 to 3 inch type of event with
details to be gleaned in further forecast cycles. another low
pressure system is shown in the vicinity late wednesday into
thursday with much higher model spread instilling low confidence on
specifics, but additional precip and gusty winds will be possible.

&&

.marine...

ongoing gale warnings for lake st clair and western lake erie remain
unchanged as southwest winds gust to 35-40 knots through the
evening. an occluded front remains stationary near sturgeon point,
steering the surface low into north-central lake huron by this
evening. arrival of the low relaxes the pressure gradient enough to
to reduce wind speeds and gusts below headline thresholds. poleward
of the front, flow is ene but will become more northerly with the
arrival of the low which should also briefly reduce precipitation
chances tonight. by saturday morning, northwest flow inland and
northeast flow over water sets up a convergence axis that utilizes
the lake superior moisture connection to produce band of lake effect
snow that stretches into north-central lake huron. as the low
weakens and eventually departs into ontario sunday, this axis
combines with an upper level disturbance to expand snow shower
coverage south into the rest of the waterways. lack of gust
potential limits concerns for snow squalls, although intense bursts
of snow within the band will still be possible. winds increase again
on monday as the gradient tightens with a brief shift to high
pressure early week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1245 pm est fri feb 20 2026

aviation...

westerly gradient flow is in place across all of southeast michigan
this afternoon with winds at many locations of 25 to 35 knots.
relatively moist conditions in the lowest 5.0 kft agl has limited
mixing depths today and suspect that wind gusts in excess of 40
knots will become increasingly isolated. boundary layer convergence
due to horizontal convective rolls will support some -rasn this
afternoon with surface temperatures in the middle 30s. strong model
signal for mvfr ceilings throughout most of the period.

for dtw...west wind of 25 to 35 knots with some small window yet for
40 knot gusts. potential exists for -rasn this afternoon. no
accumulation expected.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* high for ptype of melting snow this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory until 9 pm est this evening for miz060>062-068>070-
075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lhz421-441-443.

lake st clair...gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......mv
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.