Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
716 pm est tue jan 20 2026

.what has changed...
a winter weather advisory for widespread snow accumulations of 3
to 5 inches has been issued for erie and crawford counties in
nw pa. the advisory is in effect from 10 am tomorrow to 7 am est
thursday.

&&

.key messages...
1) below-normal temperatures, overall, persist through tuesday,
january 27th. daily sub-zero minimum wind chills are forecast
this friday through next tuesday. saturday appears to be the
coldest day.

2) periods of accumulating snow are expected in our region
overnight tonight through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
primarily below-normal temperatures are expected through next
tuesday, as net and deep troughing aloft, associated with an
unusually-cold air mass, persists over eastern canada and
impacts at least most of the eastern united states, including
the great lakes and oh valley. at the surface, our cwa is
expected to primarily reside in the cold sector based on the
latest projected mid latitude cyclone track. however, a warm
front is still expected to sweep ne`ward through our region
tonight and be followed by the e`ward passage of a strong cold
front wednesday evening through the predawn hours of thursday
morning. a stronger, reinforcing cold front is expected to
sweep se`ward through the lake erie region and upper oh valley
this friday.

prior to the warm front passage ushering-in a warmer air mass
originating over the gulf, lows should bottom-out near 5f to 10f
with wind chills as cold as 0f to around -5f this evening.
temperatures should then moderate to mainly the lower teens to
mid 20`s by daybreak wednesday as strong low-level waa follows
the front. on wednesday, low-level waa in the warm sector
should contribute to highs reaching the lower to upper 30`s
before the aforementioned strong cold front passage. below-normal
high and low temperatures are then expected wedneday night
through this upcoming tuesday. for example, low temperatures
should reach the single digits below 0f in many northern oh and
nw pa locales around daybreak saturday. sub-zero minimum wind
chills will likely be a daily occurrence this friday through
tuesday. forecast trends will continue to be monitored for the
need for additional cold weather alerts.

key message 2...
primarily fair weather is expected through this evening as an
arctic ridge exits e`ward and a sw`erly mean low-level flow
directs lingering lake erie lake-effect snow (les) into portions
of western ny. however, the les may brush the lakeshore
periodically in erie county, pa, but any snow accumulations will
be less than 1". otherwise, multiple shortwave disturbances
embedded in primarily w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft will affect
our region tonight through next week tuesday. widespread snow
is expected to reach the surface via the wet-bulb effect and
traverse our region generally from west to east from about
midnight tonight through wednesday afternoon as moist isentropic
ascent occurs along the upper-reaches of the aforementioned
warm front and ahead of a shortwave trough axis. the snow should
be steady to heavy at times, especially during wednesday
morning through early afternoon, as a sw`erly jet of 40 to 55
knots at/near 925 to 850 mb enhances the isentropic ascent and
results in moderate to strong, maximized ascent in a cloudy dgz
about 1 to 2 km thick. note: a surface-based melting layer
should develop in the warm sector and become deep enough for
rain to mix with snow at times wednesday afternoon into early
evening, especially well-south in our cwa.

during wednesday night, the strong cold front passage should be
preceded by additional moist isentropic ascent-related snow and
accompanied by one or multiple bands of snow showers, steady to
heavy at times, as low-level convergence and moist ascent along
the front release at least weak potential instability in the
lowest ~1 km agl. behind the front, a sufficiently-cold/moist
cyclonic w`erly to wsw`erly mean low-level flow over/downwind
of the ~1c ice-free waters of lake erie will permit renewed
development of les. this les is expected to impact the primary
snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa at times, especially along/near the
lakeshore east of cleveland due to frictional surface convergence.
the les should be heavy at times as deep low-level moisture
promotes greater lake-induced instability. fresh snow
accumulations through daybreak thursday are expected to be
mainly a coating to 3 inches in northern oh and 3 to 5 inches in
nw pa. however, localized totals of 4 inches are possible in
the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt of ne oh.

during thursday through thursday night, odds favor fair weather
in most of our cwa as a surface ridge noses ne`ward into our
region. however, lake erie les will persist amidst a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment, and should impact the
primary snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa periodically as mean low-
level flow varies between sw`erly and w`erly due to shortwave
trough passages. on friday, the passage of the stronger,
reinforcing cold front may be accompanied by at least isolated
snow showers, heavy at times, due to the same aforementioned
reasons as wednesday night`s front passage. the front`s passage
will cause les to shift from generally east of lake erie to
generally southeast of the lake, where les should then persist
into friday night. thus, les should eventually impact the entire
snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa and vicinity. the les should be steady
to heavy at times thursday through friday night amidst periods
of greater low-level moisture and lake-induced instability,
respectively. our latest snowfall forecast for the daylight
hours of thursday through friday night calls for 1 inch or less
outside the les and 1 to 6 inches in the primary snowbelt;
greatest amounts farther to the northeast.

additional periods of accumulating snow are possible this
weekend due, in part to moist isentropic ascent ahead of
additional shortwave trough axes. accumulations remain uncertain
at this juncture. favorable thermodynamics and kinematics
should allow les to persist, but all of the following are
uncertain: evolution of mean low-level flow direction and ice
cover on lake erie; les placement, intensity, and amounts.
note: surface winds should remain strong enough to prevent lake
erie from freezing over completely through early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
the area will start with vfr conditions and light south to
southwest winds with high pressure over the ohio valley. this
system will shift east tonight, allowing a warm front through
the terminals. this front will bring mid-level clouds overnight
and then some snow showers with lower vfr ceilings by morning.
winds will also increase with 20 to 30 kt wind gusts in the warm
sector. snow intensity will increase, allowing for visibility
to be below 6 miles, and mvfr ceilings will enter during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. there could be some
periods of ifr visibility in heavier snow. there will be a break
in the snow before a cold front enters later on wednesday and
additional lake enhanced snow impacts mainly ne oh and nw pa.
ceilings will continue to fall during the afternoon and evening
and would not be surprised to see some ifr ceilings across the
eastern half of the area.

outlook...non-vfr in lake effect snow impacting ne oh and nw pa
wednesday night through friday. areawide light snow and non-vfr
are possible on saturday night into sunday.

&&

.marine...
no small craft advisories will be issued while the nearshore areas
are predominantly ice covered, so this will be the case going
forward for now. ice covers the western third of lake erie, and for
only the open water zones roughly from cleveland east remain ice
free. offshore winds 20-30kts become southwesterly wednesday through
thursday at 20-30kts, so the ice free open water areas will have a
range of 3-6ft waves to contend with through friday night.
lingering heavy freezing spray concerns east of willowick are
expected to cease by this late evening in response to continued
easing of winds. thus, the heavy freezing spray warning is now
in effect until 10 pm this evening for u.s. waters east of
willowick.

the nearshore ice is not fastened to the shoreline, so it is
possible that this ice in the central and eastern basins gets pushed
around slightly into open water areas in the offshore winds.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 10 am wednesday to 7 am est
thursday for paz001>003.
marine...heavy freezing spray warning until 10 pm est this evening for
lez147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sefcovic
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
646 pm est tue jan 20 2026

.key messages...
- light snow accumulations are expected late tuesday night into
wednesday morning. there is a 30 to 50 percent probability of
greater than 3 inches of snow accumulation across primarily
our michigan counties.

- after a brief warm-up on wednesday, a bitterly cold arctic air
mass is poised to return later this week through the weekend.
there is a high probability (greater than 80%) that daytime
highs on friday and saturday will remain in the single digits.
some areas may struggle to get above zero.

- there will be periodic chances of lake effect snow showers
from wednesday night through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 209 pm est tue jan 20 2026

the inherited forecast remains on track for the afternoon forecast
package w/ mid-level height rises contributing to a relative lull in
precipitation as temperatures rebound into the teens. the main focus
in the near term continues to be snow chances for tonight w/ the
next clipper system. it does seem the trajectory of the mid-level
moisture plume has trended slightly northward, with the main focus
area cutting off on the very northern fringe of our cwa. high-res
guidance still suggests decent probabilities of 2-4 inches across
the northern half of berrien, cass, and st joseph (mi), so have
opted for a winter weather advisory for our michigan counties w/
this forecast package. elsewhere, snowfall accumulations should
generally be less than one inch. expect snow chances to diminish
quickly heading into the afternoon on wednesday. concerning the
upcoming cold snap, gefs plumes suggest h85 temperatures bottoming
out around 12z friday w/ 25th %iles around -27 c. efi values for
tmin trend lower heading into the first half of the weekend with sot
values approaching 1, so tend to lean more toward those colder h85
temperatures which could support daytime highs on friday struggling
to get much warmer than +5 f, if that, with lows likely below zero.
cold weather headlines will likely be necessary over the course of
the next few days. /hammer

previous discussion:

height rises and mid level ridging allow for suppression of
widespread precipitation even for the lake belt from later today
into tonight. however, a clipper system already introduces snow
chances to the area later tuesday night and that continues
wednesday. this is when the better moisture plume arrives, and this
one has a connection to the gulf. as such, it looks like 3 to 6
inches of snow is most possible north of the toll road late tuesday
night into wednesday. energetic lapse rates and a departing low
pressure system allow for a chance for gusty winds 30 to 40 mph
especially in the i-69 corridor in the morning.

what may be a brief break in the weather wednesday afternoon and
evening quickly reverts back to precipitation as a little drier
clipper pushes through wednesday night. this one shows signs of a
moisture plume, but it doesn`t appear to have a gulf connection like
the previous one does. the nam appears to have some sbcape and
excited snow squall parameter including some energetic low level
lapse rates that continue into the overnight hours.

the sheared area of vorticity behind the aforementioned clipper
system remains near the tear drop of lake mi with times of caa
through the area allowing for times of lake enhancement between
wednesday evening and thursday evening. on the whole, these chances
look to be weak and light, but the the thursday night and friday
lake enhanced profiles appear more respectable.

for thursday night, a vort max rounds the base of the trough and
pushes another dry clipper system through the area. this looks to
affect trajectories across lake mi and likely keeps the lake
enhancement going into the weekend. the other story is the much
colder air arriving friday morning with -25 to -30c 850 mb temps
moving across the area. the good thing this time is that with the
arrival of the strong 1050 mb high pressure system, the air will be
cold, but the winds will be more relaxed than our recent cold
airmass departing. highs friday and saturday struggle to get into
the teens and lows friday night through sunday night are in the
single digits above and below zero. this would make cold wind
advisory threshold wind chills possible again overnight. /roller

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 631 pm est tue jan 20 2026

vfr conditions give way to deteriorating conditions as a
clipper system moves through. broad surface low is over nebraska
with a warm front extending east, bisecting the southern-third
of il. there is medium confidence on the start time for snow as
low- level dry air and relatively modest forcing decreases
confidence. the low-level jet ramps up to about 40-45 knots
after 09z, but duration is somewhat short and a lack of
inversion suggests turbulence in lieu of llws.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory from 1 am to 10 am est wednesday for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
653 pm est tue jan 20 2026

.key messages...

- winter weather advisory in effect from 3 am to 1 pm wednesday.
total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with highest amounts
between i-94 and i-69.

- chance of snow showers wednesday night and thursday, with some
minor accumulation possible.

- dangerously cold wind chill expected again friday into the
weekend. minimum wind chill below -10f expected each morning.

&&

.aviation...

winds turning southwest to southerly tonight will direct lower level
lake clouds currently across mbs/fnt further to the north. it looks
like mbs will likely holding onto lower vfr ceilings, possibly mvfr
at times, with vfr skies for terminals to the south. low pressure
will then move into the region tonight bringing widespread light snow
to southeast michigan. snow spreads into the area between 07z-10z
with a peak in snowfall focused between 11z-15z tomorrow morning.
there still remains a chance for a pocket of dry air to reach the
southern metro terminals, which may cut into terminals and shorten
timing of peak snowfall rates. snowfall accumulations across
terminals will be between 1 to 3 inches with the higher end of these
totals most likely favored across ptk and fnt. expect predominately mvfr
to ifr conditions as snowfall moves through. following the system
snowfall will be lake effect snow that kicks in around 16z and likely
last through the afternoon while winds increase out of the southwest.
vsby likely improves with the period of lake effect, but ceilings
still likely hold at mvfr.

for dtw...light snow is expected to move in after 07z tonight, with
steadiest rates forecast between 10z and 15z wednesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and wednesday morning.

* high for precip type as snow tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 349 pm est tue jan 20 2026

discussion...

high amplitude longwave wave troughing of arctic origin will briefly
retreat northward over the next 36 hours, affording a window of
meaningful northwest flow to yield yet another clipper system for
late tonight and wednesday. arctic air entrenched late this
afternoon maintaining a wind chill invof zero degrees. coldest
conditions noted this evening, as a brief window of favorable
radiational cooling provides a dip in temps before a pattern of warm
air advection emerges overnight. minimum in wind chill around
-5c before rising through the night.

strengthening advective process with time nets a period of stronger
moist isentropic ascent immediately downstream of the inbound wave
during the morning hours wednesday. this leads to widespread
accumulating snowfall for the wednesday morning commute. cross
section analysis suggests a window of productive snow growth as
maximum upward vertical motion insects a favorable thermal profile.
onset expected within the 07z-10z window from west to east, with a
peak in snowfall rate in the mid-late morning hours before tapering
off by early afternoon. projected qpf arrives within the .10-.20"
range most locations, yielding a general swath of accumulation of 1
to 3 inches - highest amounts between i-94 and i-69. worthy advisory
level setup given the timing. prolonged warm air advection will lift
temperatures toward the freezing mark by afternoon. south to
southwest wind gusting 25 mph thru the day.

additional shortwave energy working through broader cyclonic flow
lifts across the region wednesday night and thursday. this will
occur as an initial weaker period of cold air advection develops.
ill-defined environment to offer a greater signal for snow
potential, but overall conditions will be conducive to some degree
of snow shower development with augmentation from ongoing lake
moisture flux. forecast will continue to highlight broad, minor
accumulation potential of a dusting to half an inch at this stage.
little diurnal temperature recovery thursday as the advective
process gains traction. this will park readings mainly in the teens
to lower 20s, with daylight wind chill back in the single digits.

organized southward penetration of the polar low to near lake
superior thursday night and friday sets the stage for the strongest
arctic intrusion this winter. pronounced nocturnal cold air
advection will aggressively send wind chill spiraling downward
thursday night, landing a minimum in apparent temperature friday
morning to around/below -10f. moisture quality remains lean, but the
arctic frontal passage and trailing height falls may offer a limited
opportunity for snow shower development during this time.

high magnitude cold will mark conditions friday into next weekend.
minimum in 850 mb temperatures around -30c entrenched on friday
means high temperatures of single digits - or near record territory
for a record low maximum for the day. coldest conditions likely
friday night-saturday morning with a headline worthy wind chill
bottoming out below -15f. a very dry and stable profile through the
first half of the weekend with sprawling high pressure in control.
eye on the potential winter storm brewing for the southern conus for
the latter half of the weekend, as the far northern expanse of
associated mid level level dynamics and accompanying deeper moisture
may pivot nearby just to the south.

marine...

broad high pressure out of the tennessee valley has provided a
period of drier conditions today with modest westerly gradient winds
persisting. large-scale troughing takes over again tomorrow with an
embedded system bringing slightly milder conditions and additional
snowfall. gales are possible thursday, mainly for portions of
southern lake huron, as the next arctic airmass moves in. this may
also require some combination of small craft advisories for portions
of the nearshore waters, and renewed heavy freezing spray warnings
for the open waters of lake huron. much colder conditions settle in
for the weekend with additional periods of snowfall, northwest flow,
and freezing spray.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 3 am to 1 pm est wednesday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mr
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.