Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
599
fxus61 kcle 190600
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
200 am edt mon oct 19 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a remarkably stagnant and tranquil weather pattern is in store
for the foreseeable future. through the work week the local
area will be sandwiched between ridging aloft over the central
u.s. and troughing over the northeast. this will support general
surface high pressure, dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
ridging aloft is expected to shift east this weekend, keeping
us dry but likely allowing temperatures to trend a bit warmer.
highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s will be the
general theme. frost headlines are unchanged early this morning
where the growing season is still active. given a dry airmass
with generally favorable radiational cooling conditions some
additional frost is likely at times in coming nights, including
tonight, particularly across southern/eastern portions of our
area that typically see the strongest radiational cooling.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr across the taf sites early this morning with vfr to persist
through the taf period. for the most part, winds will be light
and variable or favor a slight southerly direction through the
taf period. a weak lake breeze this afternoon may briefly
impact cle/eri with northerly winds around 5 knots.

outlook...outside of patchy overnight fog, mainly vfr expected
through friday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 5-15kt early this morning become light and
variable this afternoon. winds shift northeast tonight and
increase to 10-15kt tuesday into tuesday night, with potential
to briefly exceed 15kt late tuesday/early tuesday night. the
northeast winds will stir up 2 to 3 foot waves tuesday into
tuesday night, with lower potential for a brief window of 4
footers focused on the central basin if winds trend slightly
stronger. winds generally remain north to northeast through the
end of the week but should diminish enough wednesday and
thursday for waves to subside to under 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz003-006-008-
010-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
217
fxus63 kiwx 190406
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1206 am edt mon oct 19 2026

.key messages...

- another cool night with lows in the mid 30s and areas of frost
expected.

- a frost advisory is in effect for our indiana and ohio
counties late tonight into early monday morning. the growing
season has ended for the state of michigan.

- dry and pleasant weather persists through the entire week with
highs around 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain in sight.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

main forecast concern for this package is overnight lows and
subsequent frost headlines. surface gradient tightened a bit today
as low pressure and a weak front crossed northern ontario. however,
the gradient relaxes substantially overnight as front exits and high
pressure rebuilds over the great lakes. calm winds and clear skies
set the stage for ideal radiational cooling. most 12z guidance has
upper 30s for lows tonight but roughly 25% has mid 30s and there are
a few members (10%) suggesting 33-34f possible. given ideal
radiational cooling and recent performance, decided to lean toward
the 25th percentile with 35-37f for most locations. surface
dewpoints are a little low for a widespread/heavy frost but areas of
frost will certainly be possible. much of our cwa (especially our
southern half) did not experience a widespread, killing freeze the
past two nights. therefore, the growing season will continue for in
and oh and a frost advisory has been issued for tonight/early mon.
colder temps and climatology supported an end to the growing season
for the state of michigan so no headlines will be issued there.

a gradual moderating trend is still expected this week as high
pressure slowly drifts east. highs on mon climb into the upper 60s
and hover around 70f through the weekend. the gradient remains weak
monday night but there are indications of some passing high clouds
and a slightly warmer afternoon should keep overnight lows in the
upper 30s/near 40f for most. after monday night, lows remains safely
in the 40s the rest of the week. don`t anticipate needing another
frost advisory at this time. afternoon rh values near 30 percent are
possible each day but winds remain light and will minimize fire wx
concerns. there is virtually no rain in sight for the next 10 days.
weak fronts pass to the north wed and sun but strong ridging remains
locked over the ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1206 am edt mon oct 19 2026

vfr with mainly clear skies and light winds through the taf
cycle and beyond.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory until 9 am edt /8 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
111
fxus63 kdtx 190700
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 am edt mon oct 19 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with mild afternoon highs and cool morning lows will
persist into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

the persistent subsidence the last couple of days has resulted in an
extremely dry airmass across se mi. the 00z kdtx sounding had an
impressively dry precipitable water value of 0.22 inches. the
resident moisture starved airmass will hold in place over se mi for
several more days within persistent low to mid level anticyclonic
flow across much of the eastern us, ensuring a dry forecast with
mainly clear skies through the end of the week into if not through
the weekend.

rising 500mb geopotential heights across the upper midwest and great
lakes region today into tuesday will strengthen the low-mid level
anticyclonic flow across the great lakes, with gradually
strengthening sfc high pressure becoming centered north of lake
huron tonight, then expanding toward southern quebec by tuesday
afternoon. an elongated ridge axis will extend through lower mi,
ensuring weaker winds in comparison to yesterday. similar thermal
profiles and afternoon mixing depths will support daytime highs
generally in the mid 60s to around 70 today through thursday. the
dry airmass and light winds will support ideal radiation cooling
potential, dropping nighttime lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s for
the next several nights. with the repositioning of sfc high pressure
to the northeast of the region, light east-northeast winds off the
lakes may drive a little higher moisture into the boundary layer, the
result of which being a chance for some shallow fog the next couple
nights.

a progressive northern stream trough forecast to track across
northern ontario and hudson bay wednesday will drive a weakening
front into the northern great lakes thursday. rapid long wave ridge
amplification forecast across the central us will effectively allow
sfc high pressure redevelopment across the great lakes, eroding any
remnant sfc frontal feature and sustaining dry conditions. further
strengthening of the surface high into eastern canada and new england
on friday will attempt to advect slightly cooler air into se mi,
justifying slightly cooler forecast highs friday before southerly
return flow trajectories drive a little warmer back into se mi for
the weekend.

&&

.marine...

the pressure gradient relaxes through this morning as high pressure
coalesces over the great lakes. this causes gusty southwest wind to
quickly diminish with wave heights subsiding through late morning.
the high pressure stalls over the region through tuesday while
shifting toward southern quebec - favoring emergence of a modest
east to northeast wind. high pressure then looks to strengthen
overhead again midweek, maintaining tranquil marine weather through
the end of week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1150 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

aviation...

drainage flow off of strong surface high pressure to the south and
east of southeast michigan will maintain vfr conditions throughout
the period. model data supports flow trajectories to be strongly
anticyclonic throughout the period. there is little to no signal for
any fog monday morning, and latest moisture progs suggest high cloud
will only become possible after 22z monday.

d21/dtw convection...there will be no thunderstorms through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......tf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.