Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 251722
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
122 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

.what has changed...
there are no changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather will continue through much of the
week. fog will remain in northwest ohio and along lake erie this
morning. frost is also occurring this morning in extreme northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania, where the growing season has ended.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure over the east coast will continue to dominate the
region and allow for dry, seasonable weather. this system will
move southwest through the central appalachians and into the
tennessee valley on monday. this will allow for a weak cold
front to enter the area before quickly washing out overhead. a
new high pressure system will enter from the north on tuesday
and settle over the new england states through at least
thursday. overall, the dry pattern is expected to continue for
the bulk of the week. the only main weather impacts may end up
being this morning with some fog in northwest ohio and some
frost in extreme northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the
fog appears too limited for a headline. the frost is in zones
that have ended their growing seasons.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
widespread vfr conditions are expected through this entire
period as the threat for any fog significantly diminishes
tonight. there is a non-zero chance for isolated reductions in
visibility to mvfr distances, but confidence is too low to
include in any taf at this point. mostly clear skies with light
and variable winds are forecast.

outlook...patchy fog is possible monday morning, but otherwise
primarily vfr expected through thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure east of lake erie and translating southwestward
will allow for southerly flow over the lake today, averaging 10
kts. a weak cold front will cross the lake on monday, allowing
for winds to shift to the west and northwest. high pressure will
return from the north on monday night into tuesday, bringing a
period of elevated northeast flow of 10 to 15 kts. as high
pressure moves overhead and then east of the area, winds will
favor a more easterly direction on tuesday before becoming
offshore again on wednesday and thursday. overall, weather
conditions seem benign through the forecast period and no marine
headlines are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 251721
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
121 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog are possible in northwest ohio and northeast
indiana this morning.

- dry and pleasant weather persists through the week with highs
generally in the 70s and lows around 50.

- the next chance of widespread rain does not arrive until
saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 154 am edt sun oct 25 2026

yet another day where fog is the only main forecast concern. this
morning`s fog forecast is more challenging than yesterday because
winds have veered to a more southerly direction and we lost
good lake erie contribution. still, excellent radiational
cooling conditions exist with the loss of any upper level clouds
and some moisture appears to still be bleeding into northwest
oh from the lake. guidance continues to show a narrow swath of
dense fog developing along the maumee river with some
observational evidence starting to support this idea. confidence
in widespread dense fog is much lower this morning and for now
seems to be more of a localized, sps-level event. will continue
to monitor obs closely through the morning and consider a dense
fog advisory for the fort wayne to wauseon corridor if necessary.

lack of widespread fog and some light southerly flow/waa today
should push highs into the low 70s for most with some mid 70s
possible in the far sw. afternoon rh values drop to around 35
percent and dry fine fuels will continue to support some concern for
small field fires (limited by very light winds). winds veer even
more for monday morning and while some patchy fog may still be
possible given light winds, not expecting any widespread/dense fog
at this time, especially as crossover temps may be harder to exceed
for monday morning. a weak front washes out across our north on
monday and a brief return to cool ne flow arrives tue morning. this
will be another day to watch for possible fog development given ene
flow over the very warm lakes. light s/sw flow returns wed and thu
ahead of the next front and highs surge well into the 70s (possibly
near 80 far sw). this front also washes out across our north as
parent trough lifts into quebec and ridge holds firm over the
ohio valley. a few sprinkles are possible in our far nw on thu
but chances are low and impacts nil. sw flow quickly recharges
heading into halloween with highs well into the 70s and mainly
dry conditions. will have to watch the next decent system
arriving sat night into sunday for more widespread rain chances.
still plenty of time for subtle changes but for now best
chances for rain appear later saturday night into sunday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 120 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

risk of stratus/fog remains rather low resulting in a vfr taf
for both sites.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 251738
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
138 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather continues through early next week with temperatures
slightly above normal, despite a weak and dry cold front sagging
southward across the region tonight into monday.

- potential for fog tonight mainly southern areas, with a better
opportunity for patchy fog or low clouds developing across the thumb
and tri-cities region monday night.

- the next appreciable chance for measurable rainfall holds off
until thursday, mainly for areas across the northern half of
southeast michigan.

&&

.aviation...

surface high pressure will slowly edge out of the forecast area as a
zonal upper level jet axis progressively builds southward over the
northern great lakes. a weak frontal boundary within a corridor of
broader deformation will push due southward tonight clearing through
southeast michigan by 18z monday. forecast data has been very
consistent in showing strong anticyclonic curvature to flow
trajectories through the lower level front thus limiting synoptic
scale ascent. pooled moisture in advance of the front leads to a
fog potential tonight despite more potential for higher clouds to
dissuade near surface saturation. will err with the nam that cloud
will be transparent enough and prefer a persistence forecast (lifr)
at the lower elevation detroit terminals at daybreak.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 am edt sun oct 25 2026

discussion...

high pressure centered on the mid atlantic coast extends back across
the ohio valley while remaining the primary weather influence in se
mi today. as has been the case the last few mornings, fog is once
again a factor leading up to sunrise with a slightly different
footprint each night depending on boundary layer wind direction. the
se component this morning has a plume augmented by lake erie and st
clair moisture moving inland leading up to forecast issuance time.
hi-res model wind guidance indicates continued veering of the
boundary layer flow that favors a shift toward the north and east
during the early morning. the dense fog advisory factors this in
although with a chance for additional refinement on areal coverage
based on observations leading up to sunrise.

conditions otherwise exhibit thickening mid and high clouds moving
in ahead of the midwest frontal system. the leading low to mid level
moisture axis is also producing pockets of radar returns from nw
lower mi back into southern wi. model depictions of theta-e
advection are modest over top of dry air below 700 mb leaving little
more than virga indications through the day. high temperatures near
70 are the weather highlight, averaging 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for late october.

the surface cold front is slightly more productive as it enters
northern lower mi this evening with the chance for a sprinkle
grazing saginaw bay and northern thumb by sunrise monday. even that
tends to fade as the low level frontal zone settles farther south
from mid level short wave and upper level jet support that is well
north in canada. the system lacks moisture but does carry in enough
cooler air to drop temperatures back down toward more typical late
october readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s monday afternoon and
lows in the mid 30s to around 40 by tuesday morning.

the mid to late week period is set for resumption of above normal
temperatures as low pressure organizes across the plains and central
canada. the early week great lakes front stalls in the ohio valley
and is then pulled back north across the area by the plains to
midwest low pressure system. solutions among the 25/00z models are
once again lean on qpf due to limited forcing this far east along
the warm front. prospects for rain look better along the trailing
cold front expected in lower mi late thursday into friday.

marine...

an uptick in southwest winds over lake huron is anticipated today,
ahead of a cold front that will slowly drop south across the region
later today through tonight. overall, the front is progged to weaken
and slow down as it moves through. thus, shower chances are highest
up across northern portions of lake huron today. by morning monday,
post-frontal northerly winds will prevail across lake huron. as the
front continues to sag southward these north winds will gradually
take over across lake st. clair and the michigan waters of lake erie
during the day monday. with the return of onshore flow, waves build
to around 2-3 feet along the lake huron shoreline. falling short of
small craft concerns, but something to keep an eye on.

high pressure quickly transits the region monday night into tuesday,
moving across eastern canada and into new england area. this
trajectory puts us in a favorable environmental for more onshore
flow as north winds become northeast and easterly monday night
through tuesday. the pattern then becomes more progressive, with a
series of low pressure systems tracking through the western great
lakes region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.