Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
348
fxus61 kcle 171056
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
656 am edt fri jul 17 2026

.what has changed...
overall, the forecast remains on track. confidence in strong to
severe storms saturday afternoon/evening continues to increase,
although there is still uncertainty in timing.

&&

.key messages...
1) wildfire smoke will produce poor air quality and reduce
visibilities today.

2) a few showers/storms are possible as early as this evening. strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible saturday afternoon into
early saturday evening.

3) very warm temperatures will persist through saturday before
cooler weather arrives for sunday and the middle next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
northwest flow will pull additional wildfire smoke into the
area through much of today, resulting in continued reduced
visibilities and unhealthy to hazardous air quality conditions.
visibilities will likely be reduced to 1 to 2 miles through at
least this morning with locally worse visibilities possible.
local and state partnering agencies have issued air quality
alerts areawide through midnight tonight. conditions should
gradually improve from the southwest this afternoon into tonight
as flow becomes more south/southwesterly in response to a warm
front lifting into the region. by the predawn hours saturday
morning, it`s possible that patchy smoke is only present across
far nw pa. in addition, any precipitation should help improve
air quality.

key message 2...
shower and thunderstorm chances will return as the
aforementioned warm front lifts northeast into the region this
evening and tonight, although confidence in coverage/placement
of storms is low at this point. storms should be relatively
elevated later this evening and it`s possible that precip
struggles to develop due to the stabilizing effects from the
wildfire smoke. any stronger storms should largely remain to the
southwest of the area this evening. showers/storms should exit
to the east by mid-morning saturday, although some cams have
showers/storms lingering in the warm sector throughout the
morning. by saturday afternoon, additional showers/storms will
develop with a pre-frontal trough as low pressure deepens to
the north of the area. the storms will push southeast across the
area as a cold front begins to move southeast into the local
area early saturday evening.

conditions still appear to be favorable for organized convection
saturday afternoon into saturday evening. strong southwest flow
will advect moisture into the region with pwat values increasing
to 1.5 to 2 inches and dew points rising into the upper 60s and
lower 70s by saturday afternoon. if showers and remaining
clouds move out of the area in the morning, mlcape values will
likely reach 2500-3000 j/kg during the afternoon, which would
certainly support a damaging wind gust threat. a llj will move
over the region and expect shear values of 30 to 40 knots with
the highest shear values close to the lakeshore and over ne
oh/nw pa. as a result, storm mode will likely be a qlcs with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. a few brief tornadoes
can`t be ruled along the leading edge of the line given the
shear profile. the entire area is in a slight risk (level 2 of
5) of severe weather, although locations generally along and
east of i-71 are highlighted with greater probabilities of
damaging wind gusts and a slightly more enhanced tornado risk
due to the higher shear values.

dry weather will return for sunday, although shower and
thunderstorm chances increase as the next system crosses the
area late monday into tuesday.

key message 3...
smoke will help mitigate hazardous temperatures today, but
still expect highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of
the area. temperatures may be a few degrees warmer on saturday
and heat index values may flirt with 100 degrees over portions
of northwestern and north-central ohio saturday afternoon. that
said, there may be clouds and showers/storms around during peak
heating which would result in cooler maximum temperature/heat
index values. at this point, confidence in heat index values
reaching heat advisory criteria is low and isolated.
temperatures will cool considerably sunday; highs will only be
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. temps will warm by several degrees
monday and tuesday before below normal temps return for mid to
late next week.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
widespread ifr continues across the taf sites this morning,
associated with wildfire smoke. gradual improvement to mvfr and
eventually vfr is expected from west to east towards the end of
the taf period as a warm front lifts northeast across the
region, though anticipate ifr smoke to persist for much of the
day. recent model trends indicate a slight uptick in shower and
thunderstorm coverage along the warm front tonight, and may need
prob30/tempo groups at some point if trends persist.

light and variable winds will continue through this morning,
before increasing out of the south to southwest behind a warm
front this evening and overnight, 5 to 7 knots. a lake breeze
will develop at cle/eri early this afternoon, resulting in
north to northwest winds of 6 to 8 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a cold front saturday afternoon and evening. a few storms
could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts approaching 50
knots.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will return across lake erie on saturday
as southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold
front. winds will shift towards the north behind the front
saturday evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, before
diminishing to less than 10 knots sunday afternoon. small crafts
will likely be needed as early as saturday morning with the
stronger offshore winds, particularly across the central and
eastern basins, transitioning to both a wind and wave concern
by saturday evening and overnight with the onshore flow. another
period for rough marine conditions will arrive on tuesday as
southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold front.
rough marine conditions appear favored to persist into wednesday
behind the cold front with north to northwest flow of 20 to 25
knots.

confidence is increasing for strong thunderstorm wind gusts ahead
of a cold front saturday afternoon and evening across lake
erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz003-
006>009-017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...dense smoke advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
072
fxus63 kiwx 171025
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
625 am edt fri jul 17 2026

.key messages...

- air quality alerts continue today and into friday, in part
due to smoky conditions.

- increasing chance (30% to 70%) for showers and thunderstorms
by friday afternoon. storms may produce heavy rain.

- thunderstorms on saturday afternoon may produce damaging wind
gusts.

- not as warm starting sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 402 am edt fri jul 17 2026

a quasi-stationary/cool frontal boundary is currently draped
from the northwest to the southeast just south of our cwa. this
boundary helped to kick off a couple of isolated instability
thunderstorms last evening that were nearly stationary and
produced heavy downpours with pws of 1.5 to 1.75 inches over
the area. forecasted pws later today and on saturday push
closer to 2 inches with increased southerly flow and a bit of
moisture advection as surface dew points increase back into the
70s on saturday. shear values today will top out around 25 kts
while on saturday values about double to around 50 kts. dcapes
values today will top out around 2000 j/kg while tomorrow values
increase to around 3000 j/kg. today spc has a marginal risk of
severe storms over our southeastern portions of the area with
the boundary still in the vicinity. however, tomorrow better
synoptic forcing arrives with a shortwave pushing into the area
with an accompanying cold front and this will all lead to the
potential of stronger storms. spc currently has our area with
marginal to slight risks for severe storms. the main threats
look to be gusty outflow winds and heavy downpours that can lead
to localized nuisance flooding especially today with steering
flow on the weak side.

smoke and poor air quality continue today but should see a bit
more improvement later today as the flow increases aloft ahead
of the incoming shortwave. heat and humidity also continues
today and saturday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. in
the wake of the cold front sunday and monday will see a break
in the heat and humidity with highs in the lower 80s each day
and drier dew points ranging in the upper 50s to lower 60s. a
break in precipitation will also take place sunday through the
most of the day monday before another trough and cold front drops
into the region on monday evening into tuesday bringing another
batch of showers and thunderstorms as well as even cooler
temperatures arrive for the middle of next week with highs only
in the 70s on wednesday and thursday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 619 am edt fri jul 17 2026

smoke/haze continues to reduce vsbys at the surface around 1
mile. ifr visibilities continue this morning at both ksbn and
at kfwa but will fluctuate and see slow improvement with diurnal
warming and slight increase in wind speeds. southerly winds
less than 10 kts today. smoke is still expected to begin to disperse
this afternoon as winds increase ahead of an incoming shortwave
disturbance. after 18z today, scattered showers and storms with
mvfr cigs and vsbys in the heavier downpours possible at both
terminals.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-104-116-
204-216.
air quality alert until midnight cdt tonight for inz103-203.
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...dense smoke advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
302
fxus63 kdtx 171101
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
701 am edt fri jul 17 2026

.key messages...

- the air quality alert remains in effect through midnight tonight
due to persistence of wildfire smoke causing hazardous air quality.

- improvement of smoke concentration begins tonight as wind shifts
sw after passage of a warm front.

- thunderstorm potential increases with scattered coverage friday
and friday night. severe intensity is not expected.

- there is a marginal to slight risk of severe intensity
thunderstorms as coverage becomes numerous saturday afternoon and
evening.

- dry weather with cooler temperatures and lower humidity moves in
by sunday.

&&

.aviation...

wildfire smoke is expected to persist under weak surface flow
through bulk of today resulting in continued ifr visibility
restrictions. south to southwest winds will increase this afternoon
and begin to mix out smoke to some degree and possibly improve
surface visibility. there will also be a chance late this afternoon
to see scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm.
confidence is too low to include in tafs at this time. stronger
southwest flow kicks in tonight with models showing the thick near
surface smoke plume being shoved northeast of the terminal corridor.
have enough confidence to remove fu from the tafs tonight with
potential for a few/sct lower vfr clouds to move in behind the
exiting smoke plume.

d21/dtw convection...low chance for an isolated thunderstorm around
the dtw airspace this afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today.

* low in visibilities below 1/2 mile this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 404 am edt fri jul 17 2026

discussion...

we remain under the main plume of smoke from the wildfires burning
over northern mn and ontario to start the day. overnight, aqi scores
continue to hover in the 300-500 range which is the most dangerous
"hazardous" category. this will continue through the first part of
the day, before a warm front lifts through southern mi this evening,
flipping surface winds around to the southwest which should push the
denser smoke out of the region bringing improved conditions for
tonight. the air quality alert remains in effect through midnight
tonight.

attention then turns toward the next trough diving se through
central canada and into the northern great lakes saturday. this
trough will break down the ridge that`s been locked over the region
and bring the next chance of thunderstorms. the surface reflection
out ahead of the trough will track along the international border
today with a warm front extending se from northern mn to roughly chi
this morning. the front will get pulled northeast through southern
mi today. models continue to advertise isolated to scattered
coverage of thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening as
the front passes. very warm low levels will cap any early storms
from developing, with best timing of some elevated activity from
about 2p to 8p. spc continues to highlight the region as general
thunderstorm due to storms likely being elevated, low cape values
around 500 j/kg and shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. will have to
watch any storm that tries to latch onto the front itself though.

better chance of storms, and strong to severe storms, will come on
saturday as the cold front drop se through the region. frontal
timing look to be in the 10am (mid mi) to 4pm (detroit metro)
window. strong low level jet increasing to around 40 knots overhead
will help fuel storms. cape will surge to aoa 2500 j/kg per most
models with bulk shear exceeding 30 knots. there also looks to be
strong surface convergence and a narrow but intense vorticity axis
dropping through along the front. with the timing of the front
reaching metro detroit, spc day 2 has extended the slight risk area
northward to include locations along and south of a line from howell
to port huron. main risk will be damaging wind with a 2% tornado
risk as well. pwats nearing 2 inches with surface dewpoints in the
low 70s will offer plenty of moisture for storms to produce brief
heavy downpours, but progressive storm motion should reduce flooding
threats.

cooler conditions with northerly flow sets up in the wake of the
cold front starting saturday evening leading to high temps around 80
on sunday. ridge tries to build back eastward into the great lakes
early in the week, but another strong canada trough will suppress
the ridge and bring troughing over the region for the latter half of
the upcoming work week. there will be potential for storms on a
couple days as some mid level waves pass over, otherwise expecting
cool conditions with highs possibly struggling to rise out of the
70s.

marine...

visibility reductions to 1 nm or less persist across the entire
central great lakes today due to dense canadian wildfire smoke,
therefore, the dense smoke advisory has been extended. weak low
pressures systems emerge over the northern plains and lower ohio
valley this morning, eventually converging on the great lakes
region. this leads to more active weather with periods of showers
and thunderstorms later in the day. smoke begins to clear late
tonight as the southern system dissipates along a lifting warm
front, flipping winds south-southwesterly. a secondary, and more
robust, low pressure system passes through the straits and across
northern lake huron on saturday. this drags an attendant cold front
through the waterways, causing gusts within the southern lake huron
nearshores to exceed 25 knots. a small craft advisory may be needed
with subsequent forecast updates. high pressure then builds back
into the region late saturday and sunday supporting drier conditions
and prevailing winds below headline criteria for rest of the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense smoke advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz362-363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

dense smoke advisory until 9 am edt this morning for lhz361.

lake st clair...dense smoke advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense smoke advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.