Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
726 pm edt tue apr 21 2026

.what has changed...
not much has changed. main chances for rain over the next week are
tonight, late friday into early saturday, and monday into tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and perhaps some thunder are likely tonight, with a few
afternoon showers/storms possible towards central ohio on wednesday.
the concern for heavy rain and/or severe weather is very low.

2) the next round of rain is favored late friday into saturday,
again with minimal concerns for severe weather and/or flooding.

3) unsettled weather returns monday and tuesday of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a low-amplitude shortwave will dive east-southeast across the region
tonight, pulling a weak cold front across the local area wednesday
morning. the front will stall just south-southwest of our forecast
area wednesday afternoon as weak high pressure builds in locally.

synoptic lift along and ahead of the shortwave and approaching front
will interact with a modest pool of elevated instability (<500 j/kg
of mucape) to bring scattered to numerous showers to the area late
this evening into the overnight tonight, quickly settling to the
east-southeast by early wednesday. there should be enough elevated
instability for some rumbles of thunder tonight, but severe weather
and/or flooding are not concerns. the front will stall very close to
our southwestern counties wednesday afternoon, and as instability
builds isolated to scattered showers/thunder will likely re-develop
along it. most of our area will remain dry as light winds turn off of
lake erie, leading to a cooler/more stable environment. however, a
low shower/thunder chance is evident across our southwestern counties
wednesday afternoon. there is again a minimal to nil severe weather
risk. slow storm motion could allow a couple of spots to see an inch
of rain in our far southwest late wednesday, though this would be
quite isolated and the risk for flooding is also minimal.

it will be much milder tonight, with lows mainly settling into the
50s. highs on wednesday will range from the 60s closer to the lake in
northeast oh and northwest pa to the mid 70s along i-75 and across
our southern counties towards central oh. lows will range from the
40s east to the low-mid 50s in our southwest wednesday night.

key message 2...

an omega block type pattern will develop across much of central and
eastern north america the second half of this week as closed lows
aloft park over the northern rockies and over the canadian maritimes,
with ridging in between. a flat shortwave and associated weak
surface low is expected to work east across the region late friday
into saturday. this will slowly lift our stalled front back northeast
late thursday into early friday as a warm front, followed by a cold
front friday night into saturday. while a stray shower can`t be ruled
out with the lifting warm front thursday afternoon through friday
morning, most of the area will remain rain-free until greater rain
chances arrive from the west ahead of the approaching cold front
later friday and friday night. greatest rain chances are friday night
into early saturday, diminishing from west to east through the day
saturday. given the blocking pattern the system will be slow moving,
and it is possible saturday is a rather damp day across at least the
eastern half or so of the area. there is not much concern for severe
weather or flooding with this system, though with the slow-moving
nature of the system and what will likely be at least some weak
convective component to the rain it`s possible portions of the area
see locally over an inch of rain from late friday into saturday.

aside from perhaps the eastern lakeshore, much of the area is
expected to push well into the 70s for highs thursday and friday with
seasonably mild overnight lows mainly in the 50s, with perhaps some
40s across our eastern counties. saturday will be a cooler day with
highs expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer west).

key message 3...

a period of drier weather is likely saturday night through sunday
night as high pressure briefly slides across the area. the blocking
pattern breaks down early next week as a shortwave ejects into the
central plains on monday and lifts east-northeast into the great
lakes tuesday. this will bring renewed chances for rain to the area.
heavy rain and/or severe weather potential are uncertain this far
out, though the dynamics do appear at least somewhat supportive.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
a cold front continues to meander southeast into the area this
evening, bringing with it an area of light rain showers. these
showers will impact nw oh first before slowly spreading
southeast through the area. there is a non-zero potential for
thunder, so opted to handle the scattered convection with
tempos. by 08z wednesday, all showers should depart to the east,
allowing for dry conditions to build in. post-frontal low
ceilings are possible with ceilings of 2-3kft developing for a
period late tonight into wednesday morning. as increasing mixing
occurs on wednesday, ceilings should once again lift and allow
for vfr conditions to return.

southwest winds this evening of 10-12 knots will continue to
produce periodic wind gusts up to 20 knots into the early
overnight hours. as the cold front moves southeast, winds will
gradually back to northwesterly and begin to weaken, eventually
becoming light and variable by the end of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and storms
friday and saturday.

&&

.marine...
southerly elevated flow 12-18 knots this afternoon will
gradually turn northwesterly through wednesday morning as a cold
front moves south across the lake. onshore winds should remain
light with wave heights remaining 2 feet or less. light and
variable flow is expected under high pressure wednesday night
into thursday before the high exits to the east thursday night.
low pressure approaches the region from the west friday and
saturday allowing easterly to northeasterly flow to increase to
10-15 knots ahead of the system on friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...04
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 pm edt tue apr 21 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and storms are expected this evening and early
overnight. small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain possible.

- additional chances for rain and storms return tomorrow
afternoon (20-30% chances south of us 30) and on friday
(40-80% chances area- wide).

- mild over the next several days with highs in the 70s today
through friday. seasonable in the 60s by the weekend into next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 223 pm edt tue apr 21 2026

visible satellite and radar imagery shows a line of developing
showers and storms across southern wisconsin and central lake
michigan ahead of an incoming cold front. aided by a 500mb
shortwave, these storms are expected to move from northwest to
southeast across our forecast area between 4 pm edt today to 2 am
edt wednesday. strong southerly wind gusts and low level waa have
boosted afternoon temperatures up into the mid to low 70s today.
however, given limited instability (~500 j/kg at most) and a cap
depicted in forecast soundings, severe weather will be incredibly
isolated today. moisture will also be rather limited with peak
dewpoints of only 50-55 degrees this evening. spc did add a marginal
risk west of us 31 for wind, but if an isolated storm does become
severe, it should be short lived. as rain and storms progress to the
southeast this evening, mid level lapse rates will be between 7-8
c/km. this would support small hail in any of the tallest storm
cores. heavy rain will also be possible in any storms. the
aforementioned cold front is expected to stall in the vicinity of
the us 30 corridor around 06z. showers and storms will only last for
a few hours in any given location today and tonight, but south of us
24 may see lingering storms until about 09z. depending on where
exactly the cold front stalls and how quickly it pushes southeast
during the day tomorrow, scattered storms may redevelop along the
stalled boundary wednesday south of us 30 between 2-8 pm edt. storms
will be hit or miss, but with an uncapped environment, slightly
improved moisture with dewpoints around 60 degrees, and up to 1000
j/kg of sbcape, i would not be surprised to see gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy rain.

temperatures will become increasingly mild midweek through friday
with highs in the mid to upper 70s each day. our area will be warm
and dry thursday amidst brief yet amplified upper level ridging
building in across the upper great lakes. a deepening low pressure
system will traverse the northern plains into manitoba on thursday.
the system`s attendant cold front will move through our area by
friday, bringing rain and maybe another chance for storms. aided by
a potential gulf connection, southerly winds will improve moisture
return and boost dewpoints into the low to mid 60s on friday.
depending on what time the front moves through (late morning vs
afternoon/evening), the better environment for storms may be
displaced from the frontal passage. severe weather is not expected
for friday at this time.

high pressure builds in for the weekend, with northerly winds
ushering in more seasonable air. highs will likely be in the 60s by
the weekend and continuing into early next week. an active weather
pattern looks to resume early next week with several additional
chances for rain.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 616 pm edt tue apr 21 2026

slowing, narrow, line of convection over ksbn as of 22z will
make its way down into kfwa btw 00-04z this evening with ifr to
mvfr vis restrictions possible in heavier thundershowers. dry
therafter with mvfr to low vfr cigs likely settling in near a
weak front late tonight into wednesday morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
630 pm edt tue apr 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers with some possible embedded thunderstorms this evening.
severe weather is not anticipated.

- above normal temperatures through the middle of the week.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms friday.

&&

.aviation...

the northern edge of the cluster of showers/thunderstorms will track
across the far southern sections of metro detroit through 00z before
exiting southeast. observational trends suggest limited low level
moisture in the wake of this convection, with a lack of evidence for
any mvfr conditions this evening. a cold front will move from north
to south across se mi overnight. this front will largely be dry,
marked by a wind shift to the nnw. some subtle low level moisture in
the post frontal environment may support a brief intervals of mvfr
based fog or a few to scattered low clouds in metro detroit where
moisture quality will be a little better.

for dtw/d21 convection...remnant convection will exit southeast of
the southern portions of the detroit metro airspace by 01z. there
has been little if any lightning out of these showers.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 319 pm edt tue apr 21 2026

discussion...

isolated to scattered showers have developed along an elevated cold
front/upper wave with narrow forcing between 750-650mb. the rain
showers, which now extend through the tri-cities and thumb, will
progress through se mi this evening. overall convective buoyancy
is weak with only a couple hundred j/kg mucape to work with within a
weakly capped environment. surface dew point depressions around 25
degrees under a mini- inverted v sounding brings low-end potential
for isolated wind gusts to 40 mph with any convective development.
some small hail will also be possible noting 1-6km bulk shear values
around 25-30 knots. thunderstorm development will be most favorable
south of m59 where the modest cape gradient resides.

shower chances end late tonight as the line exits south of the state
with diffuse high pressure filing in overnight. this will support
clear skies through the morning hours along with light winds.
accounting for the expansion of light shower development this
evening, some patchy fog or a haze will be possible closer to
daybreak given the clearing trends, but overall, model trends for
decreasing visibilities remain very low at this time. influence of
the diffuse high pressure system with daytime mixing will promote
clear skies through tomorrow afternoon allowing temperatures to peak
aoa 70 degrees. the exception will be under the lake influence across
portions of the tri-cities and thumb, where northerly flow caps
temperature highs in the 50s to 60s.

expansion of a closed low system across the west coast inland and
phasing with a mid-level wave across the western canadian provinces
will reinforce a strong longwave ridge across the midwest and great
lakes. 850mb temperatures around 12c set up across the great lakes
thursday and friday as the ridge axis approaches and moves across
the state. this will support above normal temperatures with daytime
highs in or nearing the 70s for thurs-fri, with cooler temperatures
within the lake shadow. there will be a low-end chance for a pop-up
shower thursday with the passing of a weak shortwave and increasingly
likely chances for showers and storms friday into saturday once the
trailing trough and cold front approaches the great lakes.

marine...

a weak disturbance passes over the region this afternoon and
evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms tracking near
southern lake huron, lake st. clair and western lake erie. a weaker
pressure gradient offers lighter wind than experienced this morning,
but localized higher gusts will be possible in any storms. a weak
cold front clears the area tonight with light north to northwest
wind following. light wind carries through wednesday into early
thursday as high pressure settles in. the next low begins to take
shape over the northern plains on wednesday, eventually sending a
warm front into the great lakes late thursday into friday. this
brings moderate southeast flow and the next chance for showers and
storms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...am
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.