Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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Fulton and Henry Counties

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112
fxus63 kiwx 172340
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
740 pm edt wed jun 17 2026

.key messages...

- heavy rain and an isolated severe thunderstorm are possible
this evening.

- a tornado watch was issued some counties south of us 24 where
there is the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms.

- quiet weather is expected thursday through saturday.

&&

.update...
issued at 655 pm edt wed jun 17 2026

the overall severe weather risk appears to be gradually
diminishing over northern indiana, yet we remain vigilant over
the tornado watch area.

an upper- level trough and cold front remain to our west, while
our near term environment remains limited due to steady rain
and capping. despite this, a small area of embeded
thunderstorms persists along the indiana toll road, perhaps on
the cusp on a lingering mcv from morning activity. convection
there has been shallow with a strong wind field aloft. yet, to
this point, heavy rain has been the observed impact. behind this
area of rain, the in- house warn on forecast suggest the best
instability will quickly fade south, limiting any renewed
convection risk after this current period of heavy rain and
thunder.

farther south, toward white county, showers have continued to
percolate in the vicinity of a 60-jet 850mb jet. with strong
low-level flow, we remain alert for an severe thunderstorm
development within the tornado watch area, as guidance
continues to offer glimpses that renewed convection there is
possible. time is running out, and thus if any severe storms
occur, they ought to develop prior to sunset.

lastly, a wind advisory was hoisted for what appeared to be a
developing wake low over chicago`s area earlier in the
afternoon. (gusty winds were observed and instances of damager
and power outages were noted). this has failed to materialize
any further and will likely result in the wind advisory being
canceled earlier than advertised.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt wed jun 17 2026

an mcs moving in from illinois is currently moving into the
region and acting to hold the warm front and better instability
south of the area. however, as this weakens this afternoon, a
strong surge of warm/moist air advection will push northward.
thunderstorms over central illinois will then stream in from the
southwest around 20z. this will be the beginning of what we have
previously been referring to as "round 2" of storms with a
significant severe potential, especially damaging winds and
tornadoes. the greatest threat for severe weather will
generally be south of us-30 as a strong cold front comes in
22-23z. this will be accompanied by extreme wind shear and
effective srh on the order of 900 m2/s2. it will be important to
remain vigilant given the potential for strong tornadoes. also,
while the highest tornado probabilities remain south of us-30
and west of i-69 where better instability resides, with the warm
front approaching the michigan border where the better helicity
exists, the tornado threat could be just as high or higher if
any minor instability develops there. in addition to the tornado
threat, will also have to watch potential for wake low
development which could bring damaging winds behind the line of
storms into the late evening. regardless of wake low
development, it will be breezy into the overnight and on
thursday. hail threat is a bit lower today given poor lapse
rates but any organized supercell will still be capable of
generating some large hail.

also of concern is the possibility of heavy rain/flooding given the
potential for multiple rounds of convection training east-west
across the area today. pw values reach or exceed 2 inches with a
very moist profile throughout the column. warm cloud layers and mbe
velocities are on the marginal side for a significant flooding
threat and storm motions will be fast. however, still see potential
for a quick 2-3 inches in some locations (particularly in our nw)
and this will be capable of at least isolated pockets of flooding
and impacts. have therefore maintained a flood watch for areas
along and north of us-24. (flood risk appears a bit lower south
of 24).

outside of some gusty winds tomorrow, no weather concerns for
thursday-saturday. another system appears possible on sunday but
focus remained on today`s hazards.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 732 pm edt wed jun 17 2026

mvfr conditions this evening with scattered rain showers and
low ceilings. rain showers will end this evening, but the low
clouds should linger overnight and into thursday morning. there
is a small chance for thunder as well, but for now did not
include a mention in the tafs. winds will start out southerly,
but become southwest overnight and eventually northwest on
thursday. this northwest wind will bring in drier air and vfr
conditions thursday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 2 am edt /1 am cdt/ thursday for inz005>009-
012>015-017-018-020-022>025-103-104-116-203-204-216.
beach hazards statement from 1 am cdt thursday through
thursday evening for inz103.
oh...flood watch until 2 am edt thursday for ohz001-002-004-005-015.
mi...flood watch until 2 am edt thursday for miz078>081-177-277.
beach hazards statement from 2 am edt thursday through
thursday evening for miz177-277.
marine...gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...brown
discussion...cobb
aviation...nws

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
983
fxus63 kdtx 172350
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
750 pm edt wed jun 17 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected this evening. heavy
rainfall is likely which may lead to localized flooding, especially
in urban areas. a flood watch is in effect for areas south of
m-46.

- there is also some potential for severe weather in the same area
tonight. if severe weather occurs it would be isolated damaging
wind gusts with isolated tornadoes possible.

- breezy on thursday with westerly wind gusts of up to 35 mph.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the week
and this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

strong low pressure system will cross lower michigan tonight forcing
southeast surface winds to increase through the evening, then flip
to westerly before daybreak - then become gusty thursday. mvfr
ceilings upstream over southwest and central lower michigan will
filter in over the next few hours. widespread light rain from flint
south will also persist and increase in intensity. expectations are
for additional fresh development of showers and thunderstorms after
01z, which will persist until after midnight. coverage and intensity
still remains rather unclear given southeast michigan is in a
favorable dynamical position, but deep moisture and instability are
somewhat limited north of the dominant convection across the i-70
corridor. a few showers may sprout across the airspace thursday
afternoon - but coverage is expected to be limited.

d21/dtw convection...scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 01z. coverage expansion and duration is still very uncertain,
even at this short lead time. main forcing for showers and storms
will exit the airspace around 05z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5kft tonight and thursday.

* moderate for thunderstorms this evening.

* low for crosswind operations thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 339 pm edt wed jun 17 2026

discussion...

our strong june upper wave clearly located over the upper ms river
valley will move across lower mi tonight. the associated nose 130kt
jet with the strong june surface low around 990 mbs also moves
across lower mi tonight. this brings large scale forcing and lift
along and just north of the track of this surface low. 12z model
suite is a little farther north with this forcing generally between
m-59 and m-46. the complicating feature is the residual il mcs and
its affects on the surrounding area through the afternoon and into
the evening and the impacts on the anticipated wx.

the 12z models had a decent handle on this morning`s evolution of
this system which forced the outflow boundary well south into
central or even southern il. a wake low has developed over northern
il with several peak gusts around 50kts. the evolution of this
feature will be watched to see if a short-fused wind headline might
be needed late this afternoon, especially for the metro detroit
area. anticipate that it is stable enough over se mi that a wind
headline won`t be needed.

the combination of that outflow boundary being that far south with
the warming mid levels from the mcv and evaporative cooling from the
stratiform precipitation doesn`t allow much if any instability to
build anywhere in or around se mi. the region will be left for the
forcing from the upper wave to destabilize the mid layers of the
atmosphere and see if we can have enough of a neutral low level
profile to allow for some tornado potential or isolated wind to
reach the surface. between 00z and 06z there is some model agreement
that potential still exists as mucapes get up to 500-100 j/kg with
the 0-1km richardson number getting down to around 0.25 for some
potential connection to the surface. the severe weather outlooks
are warranted by also are very conditional on those elements coming
together this evening.

there continues to be the threat of heavy rain, but even that threat
is more conditional. the best forcing on the nose of the low level
jet brings in the high theta-e air from 925-850 mbs. this is also
the favorable location where 3-6 hours of training of convection
could occur and that is likely to be along and just north of the
track of the surface low. 12z guidance has shifted that threat
farther to the north. have expanded the flood watch to account for
that and will keep it in place for metro detroit given the large
urban footprint that doesn`t require as much rainfall to create
flooding issues.

in the wake of our overnight system, gusty winds will be the concern
late tonight into the first half of thursday especially for metro
detroit on south. there is good wind in the column with around 40
kts at 925 to 850 mbs with model soundings indicating steeper low
level lapse rates allowing mixing. local probabilities suggest wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph but not likely to reach 45 mph advisory
level. otherwise a cool day with a chance of a morning shower and a
slow decrease in clouds during the afternoon.

surface high pressure moves into lower michigan on friday for a
quiet, seasonably cool mid june day. the next system moves in on
saturday but it is relatively weak with limited moisture so our
chance pops will only be around 30 percent. another brief break
until the next strong wave impacts the area late sunday and sunday.
12z gfs and ecmwf suggest just the southern few tiers of counties in
lower mi to get the stratiform rain and showers with this system.
then it dries out early next week with a slow warming trend with
rising heights.

marine...

a strong low pressure system is expected to trek across southern
michigan tonight, with that bringing along the low threat for some
thunderstorms capable of strong damaging wind gusts and potentially
a waterspout or two as well. western lake erie and lake st. clair
have the potential to see isolated wind gusts of 40+ knots this
evening into the overnight hours, both with and outside of
thunderstorm potential, with wind direction taking a gradual shift
from southernly flow this evening to more westerly flow tomorrow
morning. once the cold front passes through after midnight tonight
the region could still experience 25 to 30 knot gusts through the
early morning to afternoon hours tomorrow. in southern lake huron
and the saginaw bay there is the potential for brief gust to gale
winds late tonight, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected through
tomorrow morning. overall the threat remains across the whole region
for scattered to numerous showers from now until the early morning
hours, with the possibility of some embedded thunderstorms that
could lead to an isolated chance of severe weather, the main hazard
being wind gusts of 45+ knots and potentially a waterspout or two as
well.

winds gradually diminish tomorrow evening as the low-level winds
diminish, however, there will be a continued chance for some rain
showers through the afternoon. northwest flow continues through
friday which will place the stronger winds across northern lake
huron with gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible. high pressure briefly
settles in friday night to saturday morning, relaxing wind speeds.

hydrology...

a strong low pressure system will arrive this evening, producing
widespread rainfall with numerous heavy thunderstorms through late
tonight. rainfall totals up to 1 inch are likely for much of se mi,
and isolated areas may receive 1 to 3 inches. most of this rainfall
is expected to occur in 4 hours or less, currently centered between
8pm and 2am. rainfall rates will likely exceed 1"/hr at times. the
most likely area to get the heavier rainfall has shifted farther
north to areas around pontiac, flint and possibly as far north as
saginaw and caro. this rainfall may pose a flash flooding threat,
mainly in urban areas, and rises on rivers and streams can be
expected. the flood watch has been expanded for areas along m-46 and
i-69. the watch continues for areas south of m-59 mainly due to
most of those locations being more urban with less rainfall still
leading to flooding concerns.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch until 4 am edt thursday for miz053>055-060>063-068>070-
075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for lez444.

low water advisory from 4 am to 4 pm edt thursday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...rbp
marine.......zb/am
hydrology....rbp


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.