Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
800 pm edt thu oct 15 2026

.what has changed...
minimal changes made to the forecast with this package.

&&

.key messages...
1) there will be a chance for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts
north across the region tonight. a few storms could produce strong
gusts upwards of 50 mph.

2) a cold front will sweep through the region early friday as low
pressure moves through the great lakes bringing the chance for rain
and gusty winds.

3) coldest air of the season is expected friday night and saturday
night with frost/freeze conditions expected on sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will move northeast through the great lakes region this
evening. a warm front will lift northeast across the local forecast
area this evening into the overnight hours. showers with isolated
thunderstorms are expected to enter the area from the west with the
warm front this evening. there will be minimal instability (~500
j/kg) but plenty of bulk shear given a strong low level jet of 40-50
knots with the warm front. the potential for an isolated strong
storm capable of producing a localized 50 mph or greater wind gust,
particularly across northwest and north central ohio. spc has
maintained this area in their swody1 outlook. the potential for any
strong to severe storm will diminish through the overnight hours as
instability wanes.

key message 2...
a cold front will glide east through the morning hours on friday as
the aforementioned low continues to lift northeast across the lower
great lakes. latest hi-res guidance show a line of showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping east of i-71 after sunrise on friday
along and ahead of the cold front. the line of showers and scattered
storms will exit to the east across noon on friday but expect for
lingering lake enhanced showers to linger through friday night
downwind of the lake as a surface trough drapes itself across the
local area. overall rainfall amounts with range between 0.25-0.50"
with the highest amounts confined to northwest pennsylvania and the
cleveland metro given the longer duration lake enhanced rainfall
with a lake huron connection. locally higher rainfall possible in
any thunderstorm.

in addition to rainfall, winds and gusts will increase with the
frontal passage in the caa regime. strong southwesterly winds will
peak at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph in the early morning
hours on friday. the strongest winds are expected across northwest
ohio and along the lakeshore. winds will turn northerly by friday
night but remain elevated before high pressure builds overhead on
saturday and winds decrease.

key message 3...
a much cooler airmass will be in place behind the cold front as
temperatures friday night into saturday morning fall into the mid
30s. the frost potential remains limited given strong wind speeds,
lingering rain showers and persistent cloud cover. by saturday
night, lows fall into the low 30s across much of the forecast area
with a mainly clear sky under high pressure. the probabilities for
frost remain high outside of locations near the lakeshore given the
relatively warm waters.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
showers will continue to progress east and northeastward into
all terminals over the next 3 hours ahead of a warm front. the
only terminal that remains vfr is keri, but expect that site to
fall to mvfr by 02z. this will lead to frequent rain showers
overnight and mvfr cigs and vis, with eventually some ifr
around the pre-dawn hours. periods of showers will continue
friday in the wake of a strong cold front that will cross the
region in the morning. this will keep conditions mvfr, and
briefly lower in heavier showers. ktol, kfdy, and kmfd will try
to dry out in the late afternoon and evening, but lake
enhancement will keep showers going farther east.

light se winds this evening will turn sw and increase to 15-20
knots over the next 6 hours. low-level wind shear is possible as
the winds first increase above the surface, especially at ktol,
kfdy, kmfd, and kcle where a low-level jet noses overhead. by
the pre-dawn hours, surface gusts should reduce low-level wind
shear. winds will quickly veer west late tonight and friday
morning in the wake of the cold front, with w winds of 15-25
knots gusting to 30 knots at times through friday afternoon.
winds will eventually turn nw and slowly diminish friday
evening.

outlook...occasional non-vfr expected to continue in periods of
rain showers and lower ceilings through friday night. winds may
gust over 30kt at times through early saturday.

&&

.marine...
east winds 10-15 knots will turn become southwesterly while
increasing to 20-25 knots as a warm front lifts northeast across the
lake this evening. a cold front will sweep east across the lake
friday morning leading to winds turning northeasterly by late friday
afternoon. wave heights will build to 5-10 feet during this time
frame. a secondary trough will remain draped across lake erie friday
night which will lead to winds to shift northerly around 25-30 knots
with waves of 8-11 feet. small craft advisories for the entire lake
have been issued from tonight through saturday morning. high
pressure builds into the region on saturday allowing for winds to
decrease and wave heights to subside through the daytime hours.
winds 10-15 knots turn southwesterly and continue through
monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am friday to 11 am edt saturday
for lez142-143-149.
small craft advisory from 2 am friday to 4 pm edt saturday for
lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...garuckas
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
757 pm edt thu oct 15 2026

.key messages...

- an area of rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will
overspread the area into the evening. scattered stronger
showers and storms are expected mid to late evening in advance
of a cold front south of us-24.

- there is a marginal risk of severe storms through midnight et
mainly south of us route 24. the main threat would be isolated
damaging wind gusts, but confidence in severe weather is low.

- turning much cooler and windy for friday with some lake effect
rain showers expected. the strongest wind gusts are expected
downwind of lake michigan across berrien and la porte counties
where gusts to 45 mph are likely friday afternoon and
evening.

- there are chances of frost both friday night and saturday night.

- after below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures
will warm back above normal early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 pm edt thu oct 15 2026

low level warm/moist advection is increasing this afternoon as a
mid/upper ridge axis shifts across the eastern great lakes. low
level flow will continue to strengthen over the next several hours
with some pockets of better low level moisture convergence
associated with speed convergence overspreads the area. surface
low pressure across ne missouri will deepen some as a pair of
upper level short waves advance east from central conus. the
first of these waves is across the central plains this afternoon
and will rapidly get ingested northeast into stronger west-
southwest flow downstream of a more potent/dynamic upper level
trough currently digging across the dakotas.

this evolution still looks inline to support a rapidly
northward lifting warm front through this evening with a sharp
increase in low level moisture and northward shift of pool of
better instability from southeast mo into southern in/western
ky. it still appears as though locations in local area south of
us route 24 will have a brief window of weak mlcapes (100-300
j/kg) in the 01z-05z timeframe tonight. some weak prefrontal
trough forcing may contribute to more scattered convection after
initial bands of rain showers later this afternoon/early
evening, with an environment potentially with some near sfc
based instability to work with. while instability magnitudes
will remain quite weak, robust low level and deep layer shear
profiles will build in from the southwest, so will still have to
be watching for some isolated strong-severe potential mid-late
evening and possibly into early overnight for areas south of
us-24. the more favorable combination of cape/shear still looks
to be displaced south from southern il to central in where some
isolated tornado potential cannot be ruled out given low level
shear profiles. confidence in severe weather potential as far
north as local area remains on the low side, but will continue
to monitor far southern locations later this evening/early
overnight. a good deal of cloud cover/limited instability and
stronger forcing displaced west and northwest of local area may
be limiting factors for isolated severe threat.

sfc low pressure will continue to deepen friday morning across
far se ontario/quebec as the more potent northern plains trough
approaches the western great lakes. low level height gradient,
while strong on friday, does not look as strong as several
forecast cycles ago as a secondary west-east low level trough
axis will be dropping into the region friday afternoon. wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph will look reasonable for most of the area
with an exception of potential 40+ mph gusts closer to lake
michigan shoreline. a wind advisory has been issued for berrien
mi and laporte in counties for friday 18z to saturday 03z. the
potential strongest winds look to be in the 18z-00z period
following secondary trough passage, with warm lake waters
helping post-frontal mixing. after 00z confidence in stronger
wind gusts begins to diminish somewhat as some thermal
modification of mass fields could lead to weak lake aggregate
trough and a slackening of the gradient. this process should
prolong the potential of lake effect rain showers into friday
night across nw in and perhaps far sw lower mi.

the strong negative upper height anomaly will be progressive through
the region with expansive longwave upper ridge spreading across
central conus saturday. a few nights of frost potential still look
on track. on friday night there could be an area across central
portions of the forecast area that may be situated between
lingering lake effect clouds to the west, and lingering better
mixing to the east to allow for some patchy frost. saturday
night/sunday am will also feature patchy frost potential, with
best chances across approx se 2/3rd of the area as weak return
southwest flow develops across western/southern great lakes.

much of next work week looks much quieter weather-wise as
primary storm track remains across southern canada while
longwave ridging dominates central part of the country.
confidence is high in gradual warm up to above normal levels
during the early to middle portions of next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 753 pm edt thu oct 15 2026

light showers overspreading the evening with mainly mvfr
ceilings/vis expected, with potential dips to ifr within heavier
showers. isolated storms are still possible at kfwa, but as of
this writing it seems they may focus further south and east of
the terminal so left them out for now. expect continued on and
off shower activity through the day friday as a secondary trough
moves through. otherwise, increasing winds shifting from s-se to
w-nw through the period, with gusts up to around 25-30 knots
(strongest at ksbn).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 1 pm to 10 pm cdt friday for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...wind advisory from 2 pm to 11 pm edt friday for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt
friday for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 11 am friday to 2 am edt saturday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
755 pm edt thu oct 15 2026

.key messages...

- showers expand in coverage and intensity overnight.

- a cold front delivers gusty winds (+35 mph) and chillier conditions
friday, with periods of showers.

- frost/freeze conditions are possible friday night into saturday
morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s.

- turning drier over the weekend and through the first half of next
week with a gradual warm-up starting sunday.

&&

.aviation...

surface low pressure is analyzed roughly 80 miles west-southwest of
kord at issuance and will lift northeast through the course of the
night. for now, this has maintained a broad plume of mvfr stratus at
all terminal sites with vsby restrictions confined to the northern
portions of the airspace. expectation however is for upstream ifr
cigs/vsbys to move in tandem with the low pressure center and reach
the airspace late this evening-overnight (between 02z-05z). have not
seen any lightning so far with accompanying shower activity, but
there will be a brief opportunity for a few hundred j/kg of mucape
to lift into southern portions of the airspace between about 03z and
08z tonight. an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but
affords very low confidence in impacting any one terminal site. once
the surface low passes through around 06z, winds quickly shift to
the southwest and become gusty amidst a strong low level jet.
forecast soundings show the boundary layer to be fairly well-mixed,
favoring gusty 20-25 knot sw winds rather than materializing as low
level wind shear. gradual improvement in ceilings expected through
friday, but will be challenged by lake moisture as winds veer to the
northwest throughout the daytime hours.

d21/dtw convection...very low probability for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop before 08z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the taf period.

* low for thunder through 08z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 pm edt thu oct 15 2026

discussion...

high pressure exits as rain approaches, with showers now being
sampled via kdtx radar over western lower michigan. these initial
showers will first fill in over the tri-cities, before spreading
across the rest of southeast michigan this evening. this latest bout
of rainfall is tied to the downstream effects from the phasing of a
progressive northern stream longwave trough and a southern stream
low, now opening up over the lower missouri basin. meanwhile, the
resulting surface low is currently lifting across illinois,
deepening as it tracks toward lake michigan while sustaining a broad
region of showers under the wider cyclonic influence. warm/moist
advection is underway as a rich theta-e plume gets shoved into the
ohio valley, ahead of the inbound cold front. expect a sharp uptick
in coverage and rainfall rate after this plume engages the stronger
dynamics, once the elevated warm nose makes further inroads into the
region.

given the pace and trajectory of this low, timing issues do exist in
pairing the more robust forcing with a deeper moisture layer. hi-res
models still depict large differences in the deformation/fgen axis
of the higher rainfall amounts. it is still plausible for a narrow
stripe of 0.75+ inches of qpf to set up somewhere over the forecast
area, generally along a southwest to northeast line. the aggregated
nbm suite has this corridor bisecting the tri-cities and thumb
areas. timing-wise, the peak of the event should center between the
hours of 7 pm and 1 am. forecast soundings are not very bullish in
developing unstable layers, but still can`t completely rule out an
isolated rumble of thunder given upstream convective activity.
should also note that shower residence time ought to be higher over
the thumb once the lake effect influence takes root.

with the low exiting into lake huron around 09z friday, rainfall
should drop off quickly once the initial cold front works through.
this veers winds west-southwesterly through the first half of the
day with temperatures holding steady in the mid 50s. additional
showers will be possible friday afternoon as the secondary cold
front sweeps through, marked by a sharp northwesterly wind shift,
uptick in wind/gust speeds, and brisk cold advection. gusts in the
35-45 mph range may arise on friday. first, with the trailing low-
level jet overnight into the morning hours during a period of higher
stability, then again during the afternoon/evening once the mixed-
layer deepens from the frontal passage. the main area that could see
borderline wind advisory criteria exists over the thumb, given the
lower friction and northerly flow off lake huron. the instability
created by the front should also wring out lingering moisture in the
form of rain. any shower development associated with this activity
should be rather light and brief. aggressive post-frontal drying and
cooling then yields a clear and crisp night with many locations
likely to drop below freezing, more so outside of metro detroit.
frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed friday night into
saturday morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s.

drier conditions settle in over the weekend as surface high pressure
expands out of the plains. chilly, but less windy, on saturday with
highs about 10f below average, in the low-mid 50s. the surface ridge
then centers over appalachia saturday night into sunday, leading to
a local gradient wind shift toward the southwest. this helps boost
readings back up to seasonal normals (low-mid 60s) by sunday. rain-
free weather likely persists through the first half of next week
while split-flow situates overhead. expect highs to run a few
degrees above normal next week.

marine...

showers increase in coverage and southeast winds strengthen this
evening as low pressure approaches from the mid-mississippi valley.
as the system crosses southern lake michigan shortly after midnight,
its warm front lifts across lakes erie and st. clair which causes
wind direction to veer to southwest. a strong 40 to 50 kt low-level
jet passes over this area, supportive of wind gusts to around 30 kt
to reach the surface mainly before dawn. the deepening surface low
tracks across lake huron friday morning, pushing a strong cold front
southward across the region through the rest of the day. rapid cold
advection leads to increasing instability while northerly wind
direction offers favorable fetch down the long axis of lake huron.
this produces a powerful wind field that peaks late friday afternoon
into the evening. probabilities remain high for gusts to 35 to 40 kt
gales and a gale warning remains in effect for all of lake huron.
lake st. clair and western lake erie may see a brief period with
gusts to 35 kt, but given the unfavorable fetch, any gales are
expected to be brief.

lake effect showers and gusty northerly wind continue through friday
night before a ridge of high pressure builds into the ohio valley,
shifting wind to southwest saturday afternoon into sunday. a
tightening pressure gradient offers potential for winds to increase
back to gale force across saginaw bay and out into the open waters
of lake huron during the day sunday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 1 pm friday to 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.