Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
089
fxus61 kcle 070650
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
250 am edt sun jun 7 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) next chances for showers/storms come from an upper level trough
centered around the tuesday time frame.

2.) heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the great lakes.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
cold front should be south of the cwa by mid morning today with high
pressure building on for today through monday as it moves from the
northern great lakes towards long island. slightly cooler today as a
result. tuesday will see a brief return to upper level troughing
combined with a warm front that will move through the cwa. pops on
the increase as a result for showers and storms, but for now, the
focus of this activity will be the potential for heavy rain. the
convection itself should be scattered overall, but a subtle low
level jet with a significant influx of low level moisture will
appear, and pwat values could climb above 2 inches. dewpoints will
climb above 70f and vertical profiles indicate that high
precipitation efficiency is likely, so downpours could be an issue,
especially in a convective training or backbuilding situation. still
have time for these details to continue to unfold.

key message 2...
for the rest of the week, another upper level ridge builds into the
great lakes, and temperatures will remain on the higher side with
dewpoints also elevated as well in the lower 70s. will need to watch
for apparent t values to eclipse the 100f mark with temperatures
that could reach the lower 90s. isolated to scattered convection can
be expected during daytime heating hours for the end of thee week,
and then more organized threats friday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
showers and storms have exited the region with clear skies and
vfr conditions under high pressure behind the cold front. patchy
fog is expected to develop overnight tonight given yesterday`s
rainfall and calm winds. have tempo groups in at all taf sites
except ktol and keri for mvfr/ifr visibilities from ~08z/sun through
12z/sun. expect for any fog to dissipate this morning giving
way to vfr conditions through the remainder of the taf period.

light and variable winds overnight tonight will become northerly
to northeasterly at 5-10 knots this morning.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early tuesday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue to build over the lake today giving
way to light onshore flow. winds turn easterly while increasing
to 5-15 knots on monday. a warm front approaches the lake on
tuesday allowing for winds to shift southerly while remaining
between 10-15 knots. southerly to southwesterly flow will
continue through the remainder of the week. not anticipating any
marine headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
670
fxus63 kiwx 070558
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
158 am edt sun jun 7 2026

.key messages...

- daily periodic chances for showers and storms possible through next
weekend, especially monday into tuesday night with 60-80%
chances.

- hot and humid, especially from wednesday into next weekend.
first 90+ degree day of the year likely by late next week.

&&

.update...
issued at 620 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

weak surface frontal boundary slowly pushing south this evening
and serving as impetus for sct storms. while surging low level
moisture is generating mlcape`s in excess of 2k j/kg, overall
synoptic support for ascent is quickly dwindling as midlevel
trough and embedded shortwave to our ne shift further east.
shear is marginal, particularly in the lower levels and midlevel
lapse rates are less than 6 c/km. updrafts will likely continue
to struggle in an almost subsident background environment but
degree of instability still leads to concerns for some isolated
severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds this evening.
hi-res cam`s also show this activity continuing to expand and
strengthen over the next 2-3 hours with some better organization
possible as updrafts grow in scale. given a new watch issued
for portions of northern ohio and the fact that the best
forcing/shear resides there, went ahead and expanded the watch
to include four more of our ohio counties.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1226 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

visible satellite imagery illustrates that clearing is ongoing for
our forecast area as of midday. a cold front currently extends from
rockford, il over lake michigan to grand haven, mi. out ahead of it,
an outflow boundary is noted in the wpc surface analysis over
la porte and berrien counties. large scale ascent amidst an
unstable environment will allow for scattered discrete storms to
develop along that remnant outflow boundary as the cold front
pushes southward. severe weather is most likely today during
peak heating hours (3 pm edt and onwards). concerns yesterday
and overnight were that coverage and intensity of storms would
depend on how the morning evolved. the environment has recovered
favorably behind morning convection with 2500 j/kg of sbcape
noted in northwest indiana with an uncapped environment. 0- 6km
shear has increased as well to around 35-40 kts. however, it is
important to note that lapse rates are meager in both the low
and mid levels at only around 6-6.5 c/km. recent surface observations
show that increased moisture has worked into the area with
dewpoints around 70 and increased waa due to southwesterly winds.
increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the
low to mid 80s today) to support explosive sbcape of up to 3000
j/kg. no towering cumulus can be seen on satellite yet, but
convective initiation should occur in the next few hours mainly
along and south of i-80/i-90. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather is in place across northwest ohio and northern
indiana, mainly along and south of us 30 where the greatest
coverage of storms is expected. despite lapse rates not being as
steep as previously forecast, scattered instances of damaging
wind and hail are still expected today along and south of us 30
given aforementioned favorable shear and instability. with pwats
around 1.5", even sub-severe storms will likely be efficient
rainfall producers today with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr.

the aforementioned cold front will stall over our forecast area
(most likely the us 24 corridor) overnight into sunday morning,
resulting in lingering showers and storms. as instability builds
during the daytime, chances for precipitation creep back up in the
vicinity of the stalled front, mainly along and south of us 30. high
pressure centered over ontario will keep lower michigan mainly dry
tomorrow. highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

the stationary front then is pulled northward as a developing low
pressure system lifts into the upper midwest into wisconsin on
monday. this frontal system will bring renewed chances for rain and
storms as high as 60-80% area-wide, mainly monday afternoon through
tuesday.

it will then become hot and humid, especially from wednesday onwards
into next weekend. as an upper level ridge builds across the central
conus, summer-like temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are
anticipated. the first 90+ degree day is likely for many locations
by the end of the week. heat indices may approach 100 degrees during
peak heating hours. depending on the amplitude and center of
the upper level ridge, there could be daily periodic chances for
rain/storms by mid to late in the week. for now, have kept nbm
low chances (20-40% each day) for wednesday and beyond in the
forecast due to low confidence.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 149 am edt sun jun 7 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period, with
most convection along a frontal boundary to the south of the
terminals. mvfr/ifr seems more likely at kfwa with lingering low
level moisture and nearly calm winds, especially if the cloud
cover is limited to scattered where we can radiate a little bit.
just north kgwb is reporting 1sm visibility, and ksmd had a
brief dip to 1/4sm before returning to 10sm. some of the
guidance does tank kfwa to 1/4-1/2sm vis, but didn`t feel
confident enough to go that low yet. will monitor and amend as
needed in the coming hours if trends seem to be dipping below
ifr.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...agd
discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
535
fxus63 kdtx 070332
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1132 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

.key messages...

- dry sunday and monday followed by building heat with reoccurring
periods of thunderstorms tuesday onward.

&&

.aviation...

expanding surface high pressure across the great lakes region
tonight through sunday will ensure dry conditions with light
northeasterly winds through the taf period. limited low level
moisture will likely only support few diurnal cu sunday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms will impact the airspace
through the taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

discussion...

subsidence in the wake of overnight convection brought partly to
mostly sunny skies for much of the area today, with drier air
filtering southward behind a weak frontal boundary. this boundary is
currently stalled from north of jackson to downriver, marking the
northern extent of dew points in the mid to upper 60s. convergence
has capitalized on instability south of the front and caused several
thundershowers to develop so far this afternoon. mean flow will
steer this activity south and east over the next several hours
before it exits the area. lightning and gusty winds are possible
south of i-94 through about 6pm, but confidence is low for severe
weather at this time. satellite imagery north of the boundary
suggests very low probability for additional convection that far
north.

weak height rises and confluent flow aloft promote broad subsidence
overnight into sunday morning, offering mostly clear skies and light
winds. could see some lake cloud move into the thumb early sunday
morning, otherwise surface high pressure building in favors mostly
sunny conditions tomorrow. upper ridging amplifies overhead with
stable and dry conditions holding into early monday. the upper ridge
axis then quickly passes east on monday as a southern plains cutoff
low lifts into the midwest. gulf moisture will accompany this system
and gradually advect into the area monday into monday night. the
bulk of lref grand ensemble membership maintains dry conditions into
early tuesday, but the gefs (and 06.12z operational gfs) are quicker
with the inbound wave and bring a chance for showers as soon as late
monday evening.

deep southerly flow directs the moisture plume across the area on
tuesday with high confidence in showers and storms as the wave
passes overhead. available soundings show several factors that could
point toward localized heavy rain potential: deep saturation and
weak flow through the column, deep warm cloud layer >10kft, and pwat
rising over 1.75" or near the daily record. bulk of latest ensemble
output produces qpf between 0.25" and 1.00" but a few members
indicate the potential for over 1.50". the lack of instability and
absence of llj forcing/moisture advection should keep these heavier
amounts isolated. severe weather is also not likely given moist
adiabatic lapse rates and weak wind shear, but could see precip-
loaded downdrafts that produce gusty winds at times.

southwest return flow emerges in the wake of tuesday`s wave, with
850mb temps forecast to increase to around 20c wednesday into
thursday. absent of cloud and convection, these values support highs
in the lower 90s. available guidance shows high surface moisture and
weak capping, so daily chances for convection are noteworthy and may
interfere with reaching the higher end of temperature guidance
currently reflected in the forecast. if stronger capping emerges and
dry conditions look more favorable, heat headlines would be a
consideration for the mid to late week period.

marine...

a high pressure system to expand from ontario into the eastern great
lakes today into tomorrow which will diminish the elevated wind
speeds (gusts 20 to 25 knots) across lake huron overnight. light
north to northeasterly flow holds tomorrow with winds veering east
to southeast by monday. low pressure to then enter tuesday into
wednesday which will bring some unsettled weather including periodic
rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms. winds still generally
remain light through time time frame with gusts holding aoa 20 knots
outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.