Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 271130
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
630 am est sat dec 27 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure builds across the region today through saturday night.
a low pressure system will deepen over the mid-mississippi valley
and move east dragging a strong cold front through the region early
on monday. troughing will linger behind the front over eastern lake
erie.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
high pressure will briefly build into the region today as and upper
level ridge builds over the central conus. these features will
progress eastward through sunday morning with quiet weather
expected. today`s temperatures will warm up into the mid to upper
30s with some areas hitting 40 with mostly cloudy skies to accompany
the warmer temperatures. early sunday the ridge will build off
towards the east coast as an upper level trough deepens over the
north central great plains. at the surface, a low pressure system
will begin to take shape in the mid-mississippi valley and move
northeastward into the great lakes region. a warm front will move
north through the region during the afternoon on sunday bringing
with it widespread rain and much warmer temperatures. refer to the
short term section for impacts with this system as the majority of
them will occur sunday night through monday. highs on sunday will be
well into the 50s with even some low 60s making an appearance.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
sunday night the low pressure system will deepen rapidly down to
near 975mb by monday morning as it enters the great lakes region.
there will be plenty of impacts to talk about with this system as it
moves through.

to start, the precipitation should be ongoing across northern ohio
into pennsylvania with the warm frontal passage and ahead of the
cold front. some models, mainly the canadian, have been showing
increased total qpf across those locations of well over 2 inches
through monday afternoon. most of the other models have been around
1-1.5 inches of total qpf. nbm probabilities of precipitation over
1.5 inches have dropped over the past couple of runs, though are
still sitting around 40-50% for the areas near the lake shore from
cleveland up through erie, pa. a feature working in favor of lower
qpf for this system will be a couple of things. firstly, after the
warm front passes through, the majority of the precipitation looks
to stay north over lake erie. can`t rule out it lingering a touch
further south around the lake shore, hence the probabilities
mentioned above, but the trends have shown the northern progression.
additionally, the cold front should pass through fairly quickly
monday morning and the large bulk of precipitation falling as rain
should taper off. with all of that said, wpc has the entirety of the
lake shore within a marginal ero and will need to monitor this as it
develops.

the second impact with this system will be the strong wind
potential. winds across the region will be on the rise monday
morning as the low rapidly deepens and the pressure gradient
strengthens with low level winds around 50-60 knots at and
around 5k feet. mixing levels will be just below that level
though and could mix gusts of 40-45mph down to the surface.
currently, probabilities of gusts in excess of 45mph are around
30-50% for western ohio and along the lake shore and 20-30% for
gusts over 50mph. potential for a wind advisory for those
locations is increasing and will most likely be needed. winds
will stay elevated, but below advisory criteria through tuesday
before tapering off tuesday evening.

lastly for impacts with the cold front, there is a low chance for
severe weather, in the form of strong to damaging wind gusts across
the region. models have shown a fairly thin qlcs feature forming
along the cold front which will move through the region early monday
morning. there will be a minor instability with the warming from the
passing warm front earlier on sunday that will generate mucape
around 100-300 j/kg. as mentioned, the main concern will be the rain
showers mixing down severe level gusts, though confidence is low
given the minor instability and is also noted in the spc day 2
severe weather outlook with much of the region being located in a
marginal risk.

behind the cold front, temperatures will begin to plummet as 850mb
temperatures of -14c to -16c move in to the region. the high for
monday should be around or just after midnight around the mid to
upper 50s and fall to the mid 20s by the evening. additionally with
the influx of cold air, the rain will being to change over to snow
throughout the morning and be all snow by the afternoon. outside of
the snowbelts will have accumulation around an inch, though could be
higher in some spots as a connection to lake michigan may form and
impact some western counties. within the snowbelt, consistent lake
effect snow is expected through the remainder of the short term and
into the long term periods. at this time, there is increasing
confidence in headline level snow accumulation across the snowbelts
with higher totals possible in northwestern pennsylvania as north to
northwesterly flow will allow for a connection to lake huron.

morning low temperatures to start tuesday will be down in the high
teens to low 20s across the region with highs during the day being
not much warmer in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
lake effect snow showers across the snowbelts are expected to
continue through much of the long term as a trough develops over
eastern lake erie. there will be periods of off an on lake effect,
though a weak low pressure system is expected around mid-week that
will reinforce the lake effect machine. in additions, this system
could bring widespread light snow accumulation to the region, so
will need to monitor it for changes. temperatures will also stay
cold due to the large upper level trough over eastern canada. highs
will struggle to reach the 30s through the end of the week and
overnight lows will be down in the teens.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
areawide mvfr to ifr in low ceilings with patchy mvfr to ifr br
across southeastern taf sites this morning. expect for any
remaining ifr ceilings at terminals to lift to mvfr this
afternoon as drier air moves across terminals under high
pressure. ifr will redevelop tonight as low level moisture
increases again ahead of an approaching low pressure system. the
low will bring areawide rain showers to western terminals early
sunday morning with rain showers reaching kcle after 12z/sun as
it pushes east throughout the day. have begun introducing lines
at ktol/kfdy and in the 30-hour kcle taf to account for ifr
ceilings and mvfr to ifr visibilities in rain showers.

light and variable winds 5 knots or less will eventually favor
an east component late this morning/early this afternoon while
increasing to 5-10 knots. winds turn southeasterly and increase
to 8-12 knots ahead of the approaching low tonight into early
sunday.

outlook...non-vfr expected in areawide rain showers on sunday as
low pressure moves towards the region. the low will drag a cold
front east across terminals sunday night into monday which will
transition rain to snow. the strong cold front will lead to
westerly wind gusts to increase to 30-30 knots on monday. non-
vfr possible in snow showers and low ceilings across northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania monday through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a brief ridge of high pressure across the eastern great lakes will
exit to the east today. northerly winds 10-15 knots this morning and
afternoon will eventually ease to 10 knots or less while turning
easterly this evening. by sunday, southeasterly winds 10-15 knots in
the morning will increase to 15-20 knots and turn southerly by
sunday afternoon ahead of a deepening low pressure system. the low
will glide from the central plains into the great lakes bringing a
period of strong southwesterly to westerly winds to the region
beginning sunday night/monday morning. the low will drag a cold
front east across the lake as it deepens early monday. westerly
winds increase substantially to 35-40+ knots during the day on
monday in the cold air advection regime. have hoisted a gale watch
east of the islands early monday morning through tuesday evening.
there remains a non-zero chance for storm force winds on lake erie
given the dynamics of this low pressure system. will continue to
monitor trends in the forecast over the next few cycles. the strong
southwesterly winds will also pose a threat for low water in the
western basin of lake erie.

northwesterly winds 30-35+ knots on tuesday behind the passing low.
winds will gradually return westerly through the day tuesday but
will remain elevated at 20-30 knots through the forecast period as a
trough lingers across the great lakes region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...gale watch from late sunday night through tuesday evening for
lez144>149-164>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...23
near term...23
short term...23
long term...23
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 271123
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
623 am est sat dec 27 2025

.key messages...
- unseasonably mild sunday with highs around 60 to 65.

- spc has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms sunday south
of the toll road.

- turning sharply colder sunday night with a flash freeze with
lows near 20.

- very cold monday through saturday with highs mainly in the
20s. wind chill temperatures will frequently range from 10
below zero to 10 above.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 357 am est sat dec 27 2025

a very active pattern is ahead through early next week. this
pattern includes a wide variety of weather composed of a chance
for strong to possibly severe storms with isolated tornados
sunday, a flash freeze early monday, and very cold temperatures
accompanied by wind chills through the week to end the year
2025 and to begin 2026. very moist air will stream northeast
into the forecast area this weekend. precipitable water values
will approach 1.50 inches which is around a inch above normals.
high shear/low topped convection is expected sunday. storms will
be capable of marginally severe gusty winds to 50 mph and
locally heavy rainfall. rainfall amounts by monday evening
should be around an inch. antecedently dry conditions do not
favor flooding. grounds may still remain at least partially
frozen due to the recent anomalously cold weather the past few
weeks. some minor ponding of water is likely where rainfall
amounts are higher.

the cold front is expected to reach the area around midnight
sunday night and race east. strong gusty winds will be
associated with the passage of the front and behind the front.
flash freeze conditions are likely by early monday as the
interval between when the rain ends and when the temperatures
fall below freezing will be small. monday will be a very
blustery day with wind gusts approaching 50 mph and wind chills
around zero. current thinking is that cold weather headlines
will not be needed, but the cold weather will be highlighted in
the hazardous weather outlook product and social media products.
temperatures should remain below freezing the rest of the week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 623 am est sat dec 27 2025

high pressure evacuates the area in the first part of the taf period
giving way to encroaching low pressure especially for saturday
night. a majority of the taf will be characterized by a thin layer
of moisture causing stratus with mvfr and ifr cigs. some model
discrepancy between the timing of a warm frontal passage saturday
night existed a couple days ago, but the timing has since come
closer. still, the nam is the slowest to fropa while the ecmwf still
appears the quickest. this matters because there could be some
thunder with the arrival of the front tonight, although the better
severe threat would wait until sunday afternoon/evening as the
marginal severe threat from spc would indicate. with this stratus
layer, there`s still some question on the amount of instability
present for storms.

winds remain easterly through the taf period and slowly creep back
up to around 10 kts sustained later this afternoon/ evening,
although gusts will be hard to come by.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...storm watch from late sunday night through monday afternoon
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 271045
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
545 am est sat dec 27 2025

.key messages...

- rain chances increase early sunday morning. initial onset of
precipitaiton brings a chance for some freezing rain, more favorable
along or north of m59, before transitioning to all rain.

- widespread rainthrough the remainder of the day sunday. potential
exists for heavy rainfall to develop with totals ranging between 1-
2" pending where the heavy rain axis develops.

- a powerful arctic cold front moves through monday morning. flash
freeze potential exists behind the front, along with wind gusts of
45-55 mph and snow showers.

- colder conditions exist tuesday and wednesday. minimum wind chill
in the single digits.

&&

.aviation...

a broad region of mid level subsidence will reside across southeast
michigan through the day. this will sustain sfc high pressure across
the eastern great lakes, leading to light variable winds trending
light southeasterly this afternoon and evening. a solid stratus deck
has remained in place across much of the great lakes region, trapped
under a deep low level inversion. not much change in the inversion
is forecast through the day, suggesting a persistence forecast for
the stratus deck into tonight. there have been some fluctuations in
ceilings across the ifr/mvfr threshold. subtle dry air advection
into the boundary layer is expected to trend conditions toward
prevailing mvfr today.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling below 5000 feet today and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 am est sat dec 27 2025

discussion...

weak surface high pressure over the great lakes to quickly wash out
into ontario and quebec this afternoon. mid-level ridge to hold
across the state into the evening. stable conditions maintains dry
weather while an established strong low level inversion holds
widespread stratus. temperatures ride into the mid 30s for an
afternoon high.

a potent upper-level wave over british columbia will drive south
into the continental northwest through the day today. initial
cyclogenesis will commence over the rockies ahead of this feature as
flow interacts with the higher terrain. low pressure will begin to
take form late tonight into sunday morning over the central plains
and will track through the ohio valley early sunday. this will
initially remain broad and disorganized as the ~600mb dynamic
tropopause anomaly lags behind this surface feature. initial impacts
across se mi will be commencement of first some light precipitation
on the leading edge of the theta-e gradient as it progresses through
the mid morning hours sunday. surface temperatures will be close to
the freezing mark, increasingly so for the northern half of the cwa
with this initial precipitation arc while a warm nose above 0c holds
in place. this brings some lower end freezing rain concerns with
initial onset before temperatures work their way above freezing
through the later morning hours. quickly thereafter, deep-layer
isentropic ascent will commence over se mi and will likely hinge and
pivot near or south of i-69 as an elevated warm front briefly
becomes quasi- stationary. this will result in widespread rainfall,
the heaviest of which will fall along this pivot point, where totals
of 1-2" become increasingly likely by end of day tomorrow. a low
chance for isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the heaviest
rain axis. p-type will be all rain as temperatures steadily rises
into the 40s, up into the 50s closer to the metro region and mi/oh
border by the evening.

attention will then turn back to the aforementioned wave/trough
feature as orientation turns from a positive to negative tilt,
catching up to the surface low, which will be a catalyst for rapid
deepening and significant pressure falls right over michigan.
pending any major timing adjustment, this would briefly bring peak
temperature highs closer to midnight with the stout southerly flow,
where a push into the mid to upper 50s will be possible closer to
the border, possible through the metro region, hinging on how far
north the surface warm front makes it. low pressure will continue to
deepen across the state before occluding across ontario. 12 hour
1000-500mb height falls show a -20dam change over lake huron by 12z
monday. rapid deepening and exit of the low will prog a powerful
arctic front with deep vertical continuity to sweep through monday
morning, which will result in a rapid 20+ degree temperatures drop
to below the freezing mark in a short 3-5 hour window.

first to note -- this will lead to some flash freeze concerns as
overnight lows settle in the mid 20s noting the prior day high-end
rainfall potential. while strong winds will accompany the front,
talked about shortly, there is concern that the magnitude of the
thermal drop will outpace any evaporation, even with early day
temperatures well above freezing. second, mixing depths immediately
sharpen with the frontal passage noting lapse rates toward 9.5c/km
up through 900mb, tapping into a magnified low-level jet. this will
facilitate highly efficient momentum transport and brings the likely
for initial wind gusts aoa 40 mph. after passage of the front, there
is a brief window where dry slotting will hamper precipitation, but
wrap around moisture from the low and introduction of lake moisture
off of lake huron will bring snow chances through the late morning
into the evening hours monday. windy conditions continue through the
day monday where peak gust potential between 45-55 mph is looking
increasingly likely as the great lakes reside in deep cyclonic flow
with a strong pressure gradient in place and strong llj overhead.
potential for some embedded squall-like snow showers will be in
possible during daylight hours. highly variable snowfall totals are
expected end of day monday with higher end amounts up to 1-2" inches.

into tuesday morning, breezy conditions continue along with lighter
snow shower potential, but magnitude of wind speeds decrease through
the day as low pressure vacates the area. monday highs peak in the
low 30s with tuesday highs in the mid 20s. wind chills drop into the
teens to single digits tuesday morning with the stronger winds.

marine...

a diffuse pressure pattern exists within a ridge extending into the
great lakes from quebec. this maintains tranquil conditions early
today with wind then organizing out of the southeast by this
afternoon as the ridge eases eastward. a strong low pressure system
will lift across the region sunday before crossing northern lake
huron sunday night into monday morning. southeast to east wind of
around 15 to 25 kt and widespread rainfall precedes this system,
then a strong cold front marks the arrival of arctic air on monday.
there is high likelihood for gusts to gales as strong west to
northwest wind ensues through the day, and a gale watch has been
issued. there is the potential for a brief period of gusts to
storm force on monday depending on the strength/track of the low.
snow squalls and freezing spray also develop on monday and are
likely to persist through the middle of next week as the arctic
northwest flow pattern persists.

hydrology...

widespread rain to expand across se mi throughout sunday. some
prolonged heavier rainfall is expected through the afternoon hours
generally along or south of i-69. basin averaged rainfall totals
around 1.5 inches are expected within this axis of heavier rain.
some localized higher totals nearing 2 inches will be possible with
any isolated thunderstorms. for locations north of this heavier rain
axis, accumulations generally hold under 1 inch. this could lead to
some minor flooding of prone low lying and urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from monday morning through tuesday morning for lhz361-
362.

gale watch from late sunday night through tuesday morning for
lhz363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...gale watch from monday morning through tuesday morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...am
marine.......tf
hydrology....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.