Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
706 am edt tue oct 13 2026

.what has changed...
probability of record breaking high temperatures today continues to
increase.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled weather is expected begin this morning through
wednesday evening with record breaking high temperatures likely
today.

2) strong low pressure system is expected to move through the region
on friday with rain, strong winds, and the coldest air of the season
so far. temperatures will likely drop to at or below freezing for
sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a low pressure system will begin to track through the upper great
lakes today after a warm front lifted north yesterday. this will
have some weak shortwave energy to the south of the low center that
will traverse across lake erie. this will reach down across
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania early this morning
with isolated rain showers and possible rumble of thunder or two.
this energy will exit to the east quickly and high pressure will
nose in from the south this afternoon. the surface high will be
situated to the south-southeast allowing from sufficient waa to occur
across the region in the form of westerly low level winds.
temperatures as a result will rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s
with the warmest temperatures across western ohio, west of i-71. out
of the climate sites, all but youngstown and erie, pa are forecast
to either tie or break the record highs for today. details on each
sites record high temperatures can be found in the climate section
below.

late tuesday night into wednesday morning, a secondary cold front
associated with the low to the north will sweep north to south
across the region. rain showers and possible thunderstorms are
expected to begin in western ohio after midnight and increase in
coverage into the morning hours tomorrow. the best chance for
thunderstorms will be across central ohio during the afternoon on
wednesday as the front will be making its way through. given the
timeframe of frontal passage, there will be limited instability so
thunderstorm chances across northern ohio will be lower.
additionally, not expecting more than general thunderstorms at this
time, though moderate to heavy rain showers will be possible.
the cold front should settle across the ohio valley wednesday
evening and rain/thunderstorm chances will decrease into
thursday as high pressure builds in briefly to the north.
temperatures will also be muted with the rainfall and highs will
reach into the upper 60s to low 70s across northern ohio and
increasing to the upper 70s further south.

key message 2...
after the brief break in rain, a strong low pressure system is
expected to move through the great lakes thursday night into friday.
an upper level trough will begin to deepen across the eastern
canadian prairies thursday morning and strengthen as it move
eastward. models have come into better agreement on the timing of
the trough and how it interacts with the cut off low across the
southwestern conus. the trough axis should reach the great lakes by
friday evening and the associated surface low will begin deepening
rapidly. in addition to the widespread rain showers that began
thursday evening, as the low deepens and the cold front passes
through, winds will begin increasing out of the northwest with gusts
up to 40 mph likely throughout the day on friday. behind frontal
passage, there will be a sharp temperature gradient dropping
temperatures down to the coldest of the season so far. temperatures
by saturday morning will be down into the 30s with some areas in
northwestern pennsylvania dropping below freezing. sunday morning
will expected more widespread temperatures at or below freezing.
frost/freeze headlines are likely for both days.

model trends have high pressure building into the region quicker
late saturday night with any lingering precipitation clearing out
earlier in the day. depending on how quickly the high does build in,
some showers across northwestern pennsylvania may have a few
snowflakes mixed in. with the high building in, skies should clear
out rather quickly since there will be ample dry air moving in.
temperatures will begin to regulate as well being near seasonal for
sunday and the start of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
a few light rain showers are possible just after 12z near keri
or kyng but otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected today
with breezy southwest winds with gusts to 25 knots this
afternoon.

a cold front approaches from the north tonight, with showers
likely early wednesday morning. timing and coverage is a bit
uncertain at this point, though non-vfr will be possible with
heavier showers. isolated thunderstorms are also but confidence
was too low to add to tafs at this time. at the same time, mvfr
ceilings to the east expand westward into northwest
pennsylvania, including keri.

outlook...intermittent non-vfr is likely wednesday with
widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. additional
non-vfr in rain is likely thursday afternoon through friday
night with wind gusts exceeding 30 knots on friday.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie this morning will increase to 10-20 knots out
of the southwest with low pressure moving to the north and high
pressure to the south of the region. the strongest winds are
expected to be out in the open waters of the central and eastern
basins. areas along the near shore, mainly from cleveland points
east, could see winds approach 20 knots if the flow shifts more
westerly. with the current forecast, not expecting sustained winds
to do so but will need to monitor if there will be a need for a
small craft advisory. with the increased winds, waves will build to
be 3-5 feet in the open waters and 2 feet or less in the near shore
zones. high pressure builds in briefly late tonight and winds will
shift to be northwesterly and weaken to less than 10 knots. by
thursday morning, winds will shift to be out of the northeast,
increasing to 10-15 knots.

a strong low pressure system will approach the region early
friday and winds will shift to be out of the south briefly then
out of the northwest behind the cold front friday morning. the
low will deepen rapidly as it moves through and winds will
increase to near gales, if not over gales for the central basin,
friday afternoon through saturday morning. gale warnings are
likely during that timeframe with small craft advisory needed
into early sunday morning. winds will be diminishing at that
time to 10- 15 knots as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.climate...
temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
northwest and north central ohio on tuesday. records for october 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.


date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
wednesday for lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
645 am edt tue oct 13 2026

.key messages...

- unseasonably warm conditions continue into tuesday with record
or near record high temperatures expected. tuesday may also
approach record warm minimum temperatures for the date.

- additional periods of greater rain shower chances (40-70%)
arrive in two waves, one for tuesday night into early
wednesday afternoon and another wave on thursday
afternoon/evening. a few thunderstorms are possible.

- turning much cooler for friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 209 am edt tue oct 13 2026

low pressure, currently over wi, will continue to track slowly east
reaching northern lk huron by 18z tue. a quasi stationary boundary
has been responsible for showers and even a few storms, but so far
these have remained well north of our area. a cold front trails the
low into eastern ia. this will be our focus over the next 24 to 36
hours as it shifts slowly east and eventually stalls out as it
becomes parallel to the flow. we will remain entrenched in the warm
sector of the system with one more day of well above normal
temperatures as highs climb into the 80s. bit of mid/high level
cloud cover may limit overall warming and keep temps from getting
too out of hand. that being said, records at fwa (84 in 1975 and
1899) and sbn (86 set in 1975) could be in jeopardy.

increasing moisture begins to arrive west of the area along the cold
front with another weak wave taking shape across il/ia and then
drifting east along the stalling front. strong to locally severe
storms will develop where the greatest shear and instability exists
late afternoon into the evening hours. this activity should drift
east and impact the area sometime overnight into early wednesday,
with the rap/hrrr faster (near/after 6z) and nam closer to 12z. have
limited pops to likely and during the overnight hours before a slow
downward trend in coverage and intensity is likely (unless the nam
works out). showalters indicate a plume of elevated instability, but
limited lapse rates and shear which should keep thunder chances on
the lower side. precip chances should decrease during the afternoon
and into wed evening as the front washes out and wave moves away.

focus then shifts to the larger trough which will reside across the
sw us. models seem to have finally come into some agreement on
phasing of northern and southern stream waves and eventual
cyclogenesis with the sfc low tracking near/northwest of the area.
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase again thurs afternoon
into thurs evening before dry slow works in late thursday night. a
breezy day will be in store friday as nw winds wrap around the low
and usher in colder air for fri and sat.

any cold air should be brief as pattern begins to deamplify into
next week with a return to near or possibly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 645 am edt tue oct 13 2026

elevated warm/moist air advection will support periods of mid
and upper level clouds today but lower levels remain dry and vfr
will persist. a weak front will bring chances for rain late
tonight but low level moisture remains limited and latest
guidance holds vfr through 12z wed. westerly winds may gust up
to 20-25 kts (highest at kfwa) during peak afternoon mixing.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
446 am edt tue oct 13 2026

.key messages...

- breezy with well above normal warmth today.

- scattered showers tonight into tomorrow south of i-69.

- turning more seasonable tomorrow into thursday with additional
rainfall thursday afternoon into thursday night.

- strong cold front brings more windy conditions friday as
conditions becomes chillier friday night into saturday.

&&

.aviation...

last pockets of light showers are vacating the area early this
morning setting the stage for a vfr, mostly sunny day for the bulk
of the terminals. a lingering frontal boundary over northern lower
mi keeps lower vfr cloud cover near mbs with guidance suggesting it
gradually expands back of the airport by afternoon. respectable
remnant gradient over southern lower mi today leads to a breezier
day with southwest gusts able to reach peak gusts of 25-30kts during
the daylight hours. aforementioned frontal boundary sags south
through the area overnight as a shortwave tracks across the northern
ohio valley. this offers another round of scattered showers with
isolated thunder chances mainly south of i-69.

d21/dtw convection... passing wave to the south as a weak cold front
sags through tonight offers a low chance for isolated thunder
however probability at the airport is too low to currently mention
in taf.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 359 am edt tue oct 13 2026

discussion...

lingering elevated shower and thunderstorms are moving across
central/northern lower michigan and lake huron early this morning.
this activity has been forced by moist isentropic ascent with the
increasing nocturnal jet atop a west to east frontal zone. elevated
instability brought embedded thunder as this activity rolled
through. bulk of activity has pushed east of the forecast area with
a few lingering showers and thunderstorms expected to be out of the
area by 8 am.

still good agreement that a period of drying will occur in the wake
of this mornings precipitation as surface low pressure tracks across
and east of northern lower michigan. with skies clearing across much
of the area for bulk of the peak heating period, high temperatures
will again make a run into the 80s as s-sw winds maintain warm
advection for one more day. the sagging cold front will hold off
long enough across the south for high temperatures to make a run at
the record high temperature for october 13th at dtw (see climate
section). mixing ahead of the cold front and tightened pressure
gradient will bring wind gusts this afternoon up to 25-30 mph. cold
front settles along the southern mi border this evening allowing
overnight lows to fall into the 50s.

this cold front is forecast to stall out around the southern mi
border tonight into wednesday while the gulf ridge holds in place.
this will maintain a west-southwest flow regime allowing for
additional gulf moisture to stream into the ohio valley. shortwave
energy is forecast to eject out of the rockies east of a closed mid
level low along this frontal zone developing additional focused
south of i-69 starting by or shortly after midnight and continuing
through morning with greater focus along mi/oh border with time.
limited instability north of the frontal boundary brings a low
chance for a rumble of thunder mainly during the overnight period.
post frontal airmass will offer afternoon temperatures in the 60s
for most of the forecast area. it looks like dry conditions will
prevail for wednesday afternoon as surface high pressure moves
across the upper midwest bringing northerly flow that will drive the
nearby boundary further south.

more typical fall temperatures expected to hold into thursday. a
merging split flow pattern with a strong canadian trough and a wave
lifting out of the central plains will yield an influx of more gulf
moisture as the short term pattern becomes increasingly more dynamic
over the great lakes. a surge of likely widespread rainfall will
push into southeast michigan thursday afternoon into thursday night
with a cold front sweeping through friday morning. in addition to
the strong cold advection behind the front and the potential for
lingering lake enhanced rain showers, expect a windy friday as gusts
may reach 30-40 mph. temperatures towards -8c at 850 mb arrive
friday night offering temperatures down into the low 30s to start
saturday morning. drier conditions develop saturday with
temperatures still about 10 degrees below normal for saturday
afternoon. inbound high amplitude ridge does allow for a rather
quick recovery back towards more normal temperatures for sunday.

marine...

low pressure will travel through northern lower michigan this
morning. this approaching system will strengthen the pressure
gradient, increasing the magnitude of southwest flow across southern
lake huron, lake st. clair, and lake erie. more tempered northerly
flow will be found across northern lake huron through the morning.
conditions remain very stable under southwest flow as air
temperatures remain very warm for this time of year, so any elevated
gusts will likely be infrequent to start. there will be a window in
the later afternoon and evening hours where winds back to the west
as low pressure departs the region. this window of backed flow is
where elevated mixing depths just will be high enough to where gusts
around 20 to 25 knots are possible. small craft advisories are in
effect from the saginaw bay to port huron for this potential. any
elevated winds will then quickly diminish in the later evening hours
as the pressure gradient rapidly weakens.

a cold front will then push through the great lakes wednesday,
stalling across southern michigan by the afternoon. the favorable
northwest fetch will produce wind gusts 20 to 30 knots across
northern lake huron. high pressure to then build in through thursday
which will bring a period of light winds for the day. confidence is
increasing for a strong cold front to pass friday into saturday.
instability will increase over the lakes in the wake of the front as
cold air flows over the warmer waters. coupled with longer duration
northwest flow, a high-end gale event is looking increasingly likely
to end the week.

climate...

record high max temperatures for october 13th:

detroit: 83 degrees (set in 1975)
flint: 83 degrees (set in 1975)
saginaw: 86 degrees (set in 1930)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...aa
marine.......am
climate......aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.