Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
540
fxus61 kcle 082350
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
750 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains generally on track. the marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms has been expanded to include the eastern
lakeshore areas and includes more of northwest ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms return to the local area thursday night
and friday. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for northwest
ohio and extending east along the lakeshore thursday evening/night.

2) conditions dry out over the weekend with temperatures
trending above normal early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough moving
northeast through the ohio valley with moisture spreading north
ahead of it. meanwhile, a northern stream trough is moving into
the upper midwest and will cross lake erie thursday
evening/night. the airmass remains very dry this afternoon with
surface high pressure in place but the high is expected to
weaken on thursday as a cold front approaches from the north.
most of the day on thursday will be dry but can not rule out an
isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the lake breeze
in northeast ohio/northwest pennsylvania. otherwise a chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in northwest ohio by
late afternoon with coverage increasing thursday night as the
front approaches. ml cape values are forecast to reach 1500-2000
j/kg in nw ohio along with shear increasing thursday evening as
the shortwave trough passes aloft. the marginal risk (level 1
of 5) for severe weather has been expanded slightly to include
more of northwest ohio and now extends eastward along the
lakeshore which seems reasonable. the primary concern will be
wind gusts of 50-60 mph with thunderstorms thursday evening.

moisture advection will continue on thursday night with pw values
increasing to over 2 inches. will continue with high pops for
thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
possible. will need to monitor for pockets of locally heavy rainfall
with training of storms possible with the mean flow set up
nearly parallel to the storm motion.

on friday another shortwave will track through the ohio valley.
instability may be kept to modest values with higher cloud cover
expected. still expecting continued shower and thunderstorm activity
on friday as the surface front is slow to clear the area.

key message 2...
while a few showers may linger across the south on saturday,
the trend will be for drier conditions to develop over the
weekend with high pressure building to the north. low pops
remain across the south into saturday followed by a mostly dry
forecast through the extended.

while temperatures will be near normal over the weekend, a strong
upper level ridge tries to expand east into the great lakes early
next week. temperatures are forecast to surpass 90 degrees in
portions of the area but will depend on the our proximity to the
ridge. there is a larger spread in ensemble temperatures next week
based on if the ridge is overhead or if we are on the downstream
side of it. will be monitoring the overall pattern evolution over
the coming days.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
vfr conditions are now expected through the entire taf period.
afternoon cumulus clouds are fading and some intermittent mid-
to-high level clouds will be in and out of the airspace
overnight. the fog/mist/low stratus potential for thursday
morning has greatly decreased as high pressure over the area has
dried out the air mass significantly with dew points in the
lower 60s. unless low temperatures can get to near 60 degrees,
there is likely not enough moisture in the atmosphere to support
lower visibility or stratus.

a cold front will approach the region from the west for thursday
and mid-level clouds will enter during the afternoon hours. rain
arrival is starting to become more delayed and may not reach the
area until after 21z. some isolated showers and storms may pop
up along a lake breeze but it may be tough with how dry the
atmosphere is ahead of the cold front. with that, will just have
some vcsh conditions and keep conditions vfr.

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms
thursday afternoon through saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected to persist across lake erie
through the weekend. high pressure today and tomorrow will keep
winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots and waves in the
nearshore below 2 feet. thursday night, a cold front will sag
south of the lake marking a shift to west-northwest winds. there
is a potential for scattered thunderstorms during the evening
hours which may locally enhance winds and waves, but widespread
conditions should remain calm. the cold front continues to push
south on friday as high pressure returns from the north over the
lake. winds will gradually shift to northeasterly at 10-15 knots
on saturday and sunday afternoons with waves in the western
basin building to 1-3 feet. overnight winds will remain calm.
there are no anticipated marine headlines at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10/sullivan
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
388
fxus63 kiwx 082236
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
636 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

.key messages...

- quiet today with highs in the mid/upper 80s.

- thunderstorms are likely thursday evening and overnight.
isolated severe storms and heavy rain are possible with the
best chances south of us-30.

- low chances for a few storms friday and saturday but turning
dry and hot again next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 151 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

the main forecast concern over the next 24 to 48 hours continues to
be the increased potential for convection w/ the passage of a weak
mid-level short wave from thursday evening through friday am. little
has changed w/ regard to the overall forecast thinking as confidence
has increased in a more southeastward trajectory of the short wave,
leaving the bulk of our cwa with very meager instability/shear
profiles while the most ripe theta-e air mass (and better wind
profiles) remain well to the south. still think the focus area will
remain south of us-30, but still some uncertainty here w/ mesoscale
influences. as such, not comfortable trending pops downward at this
point even though it seems central and southern il/in may be in a
more favorable position. there remain some hints at a nocturnal mcs
tracking across the region overnight, possibly impacting a set of
our southern zones. would anticipate heavy rain and localized
flooding to be the primary hazard for this event, but a couple
strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. /hammer

previous discussion (issued at 138 am edt wed jul 8 2026):

another tranquil weather day today as broad mid/upper level ridging
and low level theta-e sink remain centered directly over our cwa.
some patchy fog is possible this morning but limited near-surface
moisture and some clouds in the se will keep coverage and density in
check. highs today likely very similar to yesterday though perhaps a
degree or two warmer given some subtle waa and airmass modification
under strong july sun. lows tonight only in the mid/upper 60s due to
slowly increasing low level moisture and a slightly warmer afternoon.

main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential thu evening/
overnight. a weak (convectively modified) midlevel shortwave will
approach the area thu evening. a modest increase in low level sw
flow ahead of this wave will bring better moisture into the region
but it`s worth noting far better theta-e surge remains focused over
central and southern il/in. midlevel lapse rates remain paltry and 0-
1km mlcape values likely struggle to get much above 1000 j/kg.
wind/shear profiles are also light with only around 20 kts of flow
at 850mb and 0-6km bulk shear values are 25-30 kts at best. these
parameters are marginally supportive of a few strong/severe storms.
however, expect coverage of strong storms to remain low given weak
mid/upper level support for upward ascent and better moisture
convergence focused to our south. the best chances for a few strong
storms currently appear to be roughly 22-04z south of us-30 but that
could change over the next 24-36 hours. will also have to keep an
eye on the overnight hours as some solutions send an mcs through
central il/in late thu night into fri morning that could clip our
southern zones with some heavy rain. still think better chances for
this will be just south of our area along the main moisture gradient
but confidence isn`t high and will watch this closely over the next
few forecast cycles.

the rest of the forecast is mainly quiet. a few sct storms will be
possible again late friday and perhaps on sat. friday`s chances will
be dependent on exact timing and evolution of potential morning mcs
but suspect a return to dry/stable ne flow behind this wave will
keep most of the area dry for most of this time. again, best chances
for a stray shower/storm will be south of us-30. no severe weather
expected given even more marginal instability and shear profiles.

large/strong (600+ dam) midlevel ridge then expected to develop over
the central conus early next week and likely nose into our region at
some point. still some disagreement here with gfs keeping the ridge
just to our west and allowing a backdoor cold front midweek while
ecmwf (and to a lesser extent the canadian) bulldoze the ridge into
our region leaving us hotter and drier. slight preference for the
latter but overall no changes to the concensus initialization at
this time. /agd

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 632 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

vfr cigs/vsbys through the remainder of this taf period. mid
clouds begin to increase ahead of an incoming disturbance that
will move through just beyond this period. southwesterly winds
around 10 kts becoming breezy with gusts up to 18 kts after 18z
thu.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight cdt tonight for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd/hammer
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
308
fxus63 kdtx 090007
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
807 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance of showers and non-severe thunderstorms along
and north of i-69 this evening and tonight.

- thunderstorms will spread southward while increasing in coverage
and intensity thursday and thursday night. isolated damaging wind
gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards. the best
chance for the marginally severe storms looks to be across the
detroit metro area and points south thursday afternoon and evening.

- dry weather with near-normal temperatures settles in for the
weekend.

- a heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+
degrees).

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions across southeast michigan this evening with light
winds of less than 10 knots out of the west-southwest and lingering
few/sct clouds around 5-7kft. a slow moving frontal boundary will
lead to increasingly lower ceilings and shower and thunderstorm
chances mid to late tomorrow morning with the thunderstorm chances
focused mainly in the afternoon. will maintain the prob30 chances
until there is greater confidence in coverage. mbs will likely see
an earlier time window for thunderstorms tomorrow, but may also
seeing showers this evening as activity develops across central
michigan this evening. coverage looks too sparse at this time to
include any prob30/tempo for showers this evening at mbs.

d21/dtw convection...scattered thunderstorms remain possible
thursday afternoon within the 17-21z window. most likely start time
is around 19z. two or three total rounds of storms are possible
before friday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunder thursday afternoon and/or evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 309 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

discussion...

gradual height falls into tomorrow as a series of upper level
disturbances track through the great lakes region, helping to slowly
drive the cold front and moisture plume over the northern great
lakes south. although the 850-700 mb theta-e ridge does weaken and
becomes less organized tomorrow. will continue to favor the bulk of
the shower and thunderstorm activity over the north half of the cwa
this evening into tomorrow morning. in line with the 12z hrrr,
it looks like the bulk of activity in the late afternoon will reside
over the detroit metro area and locations south. bulk of model
solutions still only indicating mlcapes up around 1000 j/kg with
weak wind shear (25 knots or less of 0-6 km bulk shear). nam remains
one of the more aggressive solutions, with mlcapes of 1500-2000
j/kg. with higher dcape values and machine learning highlighting
detroit metro area with damaging wind threat, marginal risk still
looks justified. with weak mid level lapse rates and weaker wind
fields, we would expect mostly strong, sub-severe thunderstorms with
heavy downpours.

the cold front looks to reach the southern michigan border by 12z
friday, and then more or less holds stationary or washes out. there
is a low chance of some spotty leftover showers across south half of
the cwa friday morning, with a diurnal flareup possible in the
afternoon as main 500 mb trough axis crosses lake michigan.

a building upper level ridge (~600 dam at 500 mb) will establish
over the northern plains this weekend. the ridge center looks to be
far enough west that the central great lakes will remain on the
fringe and susceptible to a shortwave or two diving southeast from
central canada, triggering isolated-scattered showers for the second
half of the weekend into monday. the upper level ridge then looks to
fold over and an extension of the west-east axis arrives for tuesday
and lingers in wednesday. highs in the low to mid 90s looks likely
both those days, but with manageable dew pts in the low to mid 60s
expected, heat indices look to fall short of 100 degrees.

marine...

southern lake huron, lake st. clair and lake erie shore look to
remain relatively calm this evening through the overnight hours with
a light breeze out of the southwest. northern lake huron and the
saginaw bay area have the possibility of some rain showers tonight,
along with some modest wind flow veering from the south to southwest
through the overnight hours. winds can be expected to be in the 10
to 15 knot range this afternoon/evening, with gusts of 20 knots
possible. any thunderstorm threat this evening would be limited to
the bay area, where locally strong wind gusts could occur.

tomorrow we expect to have a weak low pressure system trek across
north lower michigan, bringing the chance for showers and even an
isolated severe weather threat from saginaw bay down to the lake
erie shore. the main threat for any thunderstorms that could develop
tomorrow would be damaging wind gusts. nonetheless lake huron and
saginaw bay can expect light winds veering from the southwest to the
north throughout the day tomorrow, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots
possible depending on the positioning of the low pressure tomorrow.
lake st. clair and lake erie shore can expect light winds as well
tomorrow veering from the southwest to the west throughout the day
tomorrow.

friday onwards a high pressure system is expected to develop over
the region, bringing warmer and calmer weather throughout the
weekend.

hydrology...

a slow moving cold front settles through southern lower michigan
thursday and thursday night, serving as the focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms, mainly thursday afternoon and evening,
with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. basin average
rainfall of a quarter to half an inch is expected, with a chance of
near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. the
slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of
thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within
a few hours time. flooding potential in this scenario is still
limited to minor flooding of urban and other prone areas. scattered
showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into friday, mainly
south of m-59, before coming to an end friday evening.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......zb/tf
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.