Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 pm edt wed aug 12 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the west this
afternoon and continue into this evening. the primary concern is
heavy rain and isolated flash flooding, especially across northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

2) showers and thunderstorms will return saturday night through
sunday with a low pressure system and cold front. some stronger
storms are possible sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite imagery depict
another large cluster of showers and thunderstorms towards the west
across indiana, with spc mesoanalysis revealing a tight mlcape
gradient oriented generally nnw to sse. convection trends have
already begun following this gradient, with the stronger and more
organized storms beginning to dip further south across indiana and
southwest ohio. modest residual westerly 850 mb flow of 30 to 35
knots across northwest ohio may allow for some showers and storms to
redevelop this afternoon, though the threat for any stronger storms
across our area appears to be decreasing. there is a somewhat low
potential for some heavier rain and isolated flash flooding later
this evening as a trough swings south through the eastern great
lakes, as the arriving 850 mb jet may result in a stalled boundary
somewhere across far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

otherwise, the heavy rain threat for thursday night into friday
appears to be decreasing as qpf guidance continues to trend further
south into the ohio valley. could still see some scattered showers
and storms thursday night into friday, particularly along or near
the us-30 corridor, but the overall heavy rain threat appears to be
decreasing.

key message 2...
the next period for unsettled weather will be
saturday night through sunday as a low pressure system moves east
through the great lakes, extending a cold front across the area
sunday night. will continue to monitor the threat for any stronger
storms, especially sunday afternoon with the latest guidance
suggesting a potent 700 mb shortwave of 35 to 40 knots entering the
area.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
gradual improvement in ceilings from mvfr to vfr is occurring
from northwest to southeast this evening. lower confidence in
keri ceilings improving to vfr given lingering showers and
thunderstorms moving east across northeast ohio/northwest pa.
elsewhere, vfr conditions will deteriorate to ifr, with patchy
lifr, in areas of fog overnight tonight. highest confidence in
ifr or lower conditions will be western terminals (including
mfd). any fog that does develop overnight tonight will dissipate
thursday morning allowing for conditions to slowly improve back
to vfr by late morning/early afternoon. some showers and storms
may begin to approach terminals from the southwest thursday
evening and have put vcsh in the kfdy/ktol and the 30-hr kcle
taf.

southwest to west winds 5-10 knots will become light and
variable overnight tonight. winds turn northwesterly thursday
morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms thursday
evening into thursday night. non-vfr possible again in showers
and thunderstorms saturday afternoon into sunday.

&&

.marine...
showers and thunderstorms are possible across lake erie this
afternoon into the evening as a feature moves west to east across
the region. precipitation will move to the east by late tonight with
quiet conditions expected through saturday evening. winds today will
be out of the southwest at 10-15 knots before shifting to be out of
the north at 10-15 knots by thursday morning. winds will become
light throughout the day thursday, around 5 knots and shift to be
out of the east at 5-10 knots by friday through saturday evening. a
warm front will move over the lake saturday night and winds will
shift to be out of the south at 5-15 knots, then the associated cold
front will move across the lake shifting winds to be out of the
northwest at 10-15 knots by sunday evening. waves through thursday
evening will be less than 1 foot and build to 1-3 feet friday
through monday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...13
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
638 pm edt wed aug 12 2026

.key messages...

- showers/thunderstorms will continue to move through the area
this afternoon but will see chances for precipitation
diminish into the evening.

- a flood watch remains in effect for areas along and south of
us-30 through 11 pm edt.

- patchy fog will be possible overnight tonight into thursday
morning.

- periods of showers/thunderstorms will be possible over the
next several days, especially during the afternoon hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt wed aug 12 2026

well another day of showers/thunderstorms today with thankfully
less severity with less impressive environmental conditions
available to work with. however, the flooding impacts seem to be
the main concern going into this afternoon/evening period with
another stratiform rain event in the wake of this afternoons
eastward progression of a linear storm feature. a swath of storm
totals over the last several days of 5 to 10 inches of rainfall
across our western parts of the cwa around pulaski county in
indiana and orientated southeastward down into the grant,
blackford, and jay counties in indiana. a flash flood watch
continues for areas mainly south of us-30 until 11 pm edt
tonight as additional rainfall will exacerbate any flooding
impacts in these areas.

the good news is we should see a break in the precipitation
tonight and through thursday morning which will help to let
things dry out a bit. however, this break will also increase
chances of misty and foggy conditions overnight with the very
moist surface layer from the recent rainfall along with light
and variable winds across the area. confidence on the areal
coverage is not high at this time but where fog does develop
could become dense at least for a short period.

with the pesky zonal upper level pattern still status quo
thorough at least the next several days we will have periods of
increased chances of showers and storms each day especially in
the afternoon to evening periods. temperatures also looks to
remain seasonable during this forecast period.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 634 pm edt wed aug 12 2026

conditions will remain dry through at least the first half of
the taf period. with the ground saturated from recent rainfall,
light winds expected overnight, and satellite imagery showing
clearing approaching from upstream, dense fog is expected to
develop overnight. fog may develop as early as 06z and last
through daybreak. lifr ceilings and visibilities are likely with
dense fog between 06-12z thursday. while visibilities improve
quickly after daybreak (around 12z), ceilings may remain ifr
through the morning hours. another round of heavy rain and
scattered storms is possible thursday afternoon evening,
starting between 18-21z. within any storms, mvfr ceilings and
visibilities will be possible.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 11 pm edt /10 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-203-216.
oh...flood watch until 11 pm edt this evening for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
659 pm edt wed aug 12 2026

.key messages...

- scattered thunderstorms develop overhead this afternoon and
evening. isolated severe storms will be possible.

- mainly dry conditions develop thursday through most of saturday.

- renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms late saturday into
sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a composite outflow/backdoor front in the near surface environment
with deformation in the midlevels has created an axis of favored
ascent and thunderstorm development mainly north of i 69. nwp hires
signal suggests this convergence axis will lead to additional
showers and thunderstorms through approximately 2z between the m46
and i 69 corridors. there is less confidence that showers and
thunderstorms will be able to persist into northern portions of metro
detroit this evening. lack of flow with high surface based humidity
and evapotranspiration brings the potential for fog development
again late tonight and daybreak. low confidence in any ifr or lifr
conditions.

d21/dtw convection...there is low confidence that showers and
thunderstorms will push southward into dtw airspace this evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and thursday.

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 pm edt wed aug 12 2026

discussion...

the great lakes and ohio valley remained locked into an unsettled
deformation pattern again today, which steered yet another mcs
across the ohio valley. a lackluster showing locally with just a
brief flare up in shower activity near the state line already
decaying at issuance. that said, composite reflectivity does show
outflow emanating north from the complex which will be one of
several small-scale forcing mechanisms capable of triggering
additional convection this evening.

stable but moist low levels characterize the airmass across the
southern counties where surface dewpoints are near 70 degrees.
delineation in cloud cover throughout the day has set up an
impressive differential heating boundary around the i-94 corridor.
temperatures underneath the stratus deck are only in the low 70s
compared to low 80s in partial sun to the north. with 6.0-6.5 c/km
mid level lapse rates present across all of se michigan, instability
is tied to the moistened boundary layer conditions which are most
favorable where rain fell earlier today across the saginaw
valley/thumb region and near the lake huron shoreline. this also
happens to be where the nose of an upper level jet will connect with
low level troughing to present a more focused area of weak ascent
this evening.

current satellite trends show a few spots where towering cumulus is
attempting to gain traction, mainly along the lake breeze influence
from bad axe south. the existing stable layer is still broadly
preventing deep convective growth, as has been the case the past
several days, although a couple of deeper cores have developed along
the interacting lake breeze boundaries. expectation is for the
arrival of the synoptic ascent and lake breezes/outflow to piece
together enough ascent for more updrafts to break through the cap.
thus additional convection development is expected overhead through
the evening (roughly 22z-03z or 6pm-11pm edt). this will mainly
occur north of the m-59 corridor where instability is most
favorable. the deepest updrafts will have access to ~40 knots of 0-
6km bulk shear and cape density throughout the mid-levels. isolated
storms will thus be capable or 1+ inch hail and downbursts of 60+
mph. swody1 continues to highlight a marginal risk for much of the
area.

low confidence pattern lingers through the rest of the week into the
weekend as the deformation axis loiters over the ohio valley.
disjointed moisture and weak forcing will continue to struggle
generating convection, while a southward shift in the boundary
thursday favors a dry forecast for all of se michigan. this boundary
does attempt to lift back north friday-this weekend, but will be
competing with high pressure over ontario which keeps better
moisture/instability to our south and west. upstream convection may
still have an impact on cloud cover, while residual low level
moisture affords fog chances again thursday morning--both
influencing temperatures.

relief from this unsettled pattern finally arrives late this weekend-
early next week as low pressure ejects out of the northern rockies
into canada. this drives a cold front across the upper midwest and
great lakes which brings an increased chance of showers and storms
this weekend, but a bout of high pressure behind it. seasonable
temperatures in the low-mid 80s are expected throughout the 7-day
forecast period.

marine...

a stalled front near the southern michigan border will continue to
be a focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the next couple
days. lake st clair and lake erie have the highest chances of
convection affecting them being closer to the stalled front, but
periodic chances will continue further north as well. outside of any
convection, high pressure to the north of the front will provide
generally light northwesterly winds through thursday at 10 knots or
less. with the lighter winds, there are some weak signals for patchy
dense fog over lake huron at times, through confidence remains low.
on friday, the high pushes eastward across the central and eastern
great lakes which will favor an uptick in northeast winds. winds
then turn southerly late saturday and increase to around 20 knots
ahead of a cold front saturday night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mv
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.