Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
722 am edt thu jul 2 2026

.what has changed...
there were no major changes with this forecast update. near
record heat expected again today. extreme heat warning for
northern ohio and heat advisory for northwest pennsylvania will
continue through friday evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) dangerous heat and humidity persist through the end of the week.

2) daily chances for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
return this evening onward with better probability this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a large summertime high pressure ridge or "heat dome" is
currently over the lower ohio valley this morning. this ridge of
high pressure will continue to bring very hot temperatures and
humidity across the region through friday. temperatures are
expected to be in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees once
again this afternoon. toledo and cleveland have the best chance
of either to break or tie their daily record high temperatures
for thursday, july 2nd. all the other daily climate sites will
be closer to their record highs, within a couple degrees. see
the climate section below for more info. the heat index will be
between 100 and 108 degrees later today. friday`s high
temperatures will be back in the middle to upper 90s and the
heat index between 100 and 107. the ongoing extreme heat warning
and heat advisory through friday evening looks good at this
time and no changes are needed. this ridge will weaken somewhat
and flatten out by the weekend as it shifts off the southeastern
u.s. temperatures will be slightly lower but still rather hot
in the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. by early and middle
of next week, temperatures will be closer to seasonable warm
weather for early july in the middle and upper 80s areawide.

key message 2...
the first chance for a few widely scattered showers and storms
may be possible this evening across far neoh and nwpa. the
chance for pops will be 20 to 30 percent at best. there will be
a little disturbance that will try to ride over the top of the
ridge of high pressure this evening which could spark off some
widely scattered convection. later on friday, the ridge of high
pressure will start to pull away allowing for the main
westerlies to shift southward and closer to the eastern great
lakes region. the chances for scattered convection will increase
by late friday afternoon into the overnight. spc has mentioned
our entire area for a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the
potential of isolated severe storms. the main threat will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail with any of the strongest
convection. we will continue to remain in that westerlies flow
aloft over the weekend which will bring off and on chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the max
heating of the afternoon and evening. a couple stronger storms
could be possible over the weekend as well. a lingering mid
level trough may hang over the eastern great lakes through the
middle of next week and bring the chance for daily pop-up
convection in the forecast. we will hold on to daily pops of 20
to 30 percent into early to middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
few clouds at fl035-050 possible today, but likely no ceilings
once again. no convective activity potential for another day or
so. winds at tol/fdy could gust 15-20kts, but for terminals
further east, should stay near or below 12kts. clearing again
tonight.

outlook...there is a very low chance of thunderstorms thursday
night. greater potential for scattered storms friday through
sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each
day.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 10-15kts will persist through the weekend, and wave
heights will generally be around a foot or less in the nearshore
zones of lake erie. with low pressure moving into the region after
sunday, onshore flow will prevail for monday and tuesday around
10kts with wave heights 1-2ft. daily thunderstorm chances return
friday through the weekend.

&&

.climate...
very hot and humid weather is expected through friday. record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt friday for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt friday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
624 am edt thu jul 2 2026

.key messages...

- the extreme heat warning remains in effect area-wide through this
evening. highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices between
100 to 110 degrees are expected this afternoon.

- heat indices may exceed 100 degrees again on friday, but heat
indices will be dependent on extent of afternoon clouds and
any scattered showers and storms. additional heat headlines
may be needed for friday.

- there is a slight risk of severe storms friday north of us
route 24, and a marginal risk of severe storms friday south
of us route 24. isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts
appears to be the primary threat, but isolated large hail
cannot be ruled out. isolated strong to severe storms are also
possible during the afternoon and evening hours for saturday
and sunday.

- hot and humid conditions persist for the 4th of july, but heat
indices will be highly dependent on cloud coverage and
coverage of showers and storms.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 320 am edt thu jul 2 2026

for ongoing headlines, the extreme heat warning will be maintained
area-wide through this evening. as will be discussed below, heat
headlines in some form will likely need to be extended into
friday, but convective potential continues to provide some
challenges to heat forecast for friday.

a complex of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing early this morning
from southeast minnesota into northern lower michigan. these
thunderstorms are occuring along northern periphery of mid level
ridging that has maintained dry conditions locally over the past
several days. an outflow boundary emanating from this convection is
currently approaching southeast wisconsin as of 07z this
morning. this boundary is expected to slow its southeast
progress and become more shallow in nature as it likely stalls
across the southern great lakes region this morning. there is a
non-zero chance for an isolated shower or storm to develop along
this residual boundary this morning across far nw in to s lower
mi, but would suspect as this boundary becomes more divorced
from stronger mid/upper level forcing, additional convection
will be hard to come by given convergence fields becoming less
defined through time. thus, will maintain some silent 10 pops
across the far north/northwest this morning. it is possible the
southern periphery of convectively enhanced vort max could
track across se lower michigan this afternoon which could help
initiate an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the residual
outflow boundary north of us 6. however, once again, confidence
in this scenario is quite low given potential of some weak
surfaced based cin likely to persist.

otherwise for today, persistence forecast maintained for
temperature/heat index forecast although some slight moderation of
low level temperatures is possible today as the mid/upper level
ridge gets slightly suppressed by the convectively enhanced short
wave tracking across the southern great lakes. if temps are slightly
cooler today, this could be offset by dew points which could be
slightly higher in spots today in comparison to yesterday. this
should produce another day of peak afternoon heat indices from
100 to 110 and the extreme heat warning will be maintained
through this evening.

for tonight, will need to watch for the possibility of another
convectively enhanced short wave to impact the region. this
potential will be higher in comparison to this morning as the
mid/upper ridge continues to slowly get suppressed providing a
more favorable track into the local area. the source region of
this next short wave will likely emanate from ongoing convection
this morning downstream of a central plains short wave. some
higher low level theta-e air will also continue to wrap
anticyclonically into the region tonight as the height maximum
with the upper level ridge begins to shift into the mid atlantic
states by daybreak friday. the far north remains in swody2
marginal risk, which would likely be in association with an
isolated late wind risk tonight. somewhat unfavorable diurnal
timing and uncertainty in strength of this vort max leads to low
confidence in any isolated severe risk tonight across the
north. confidence is a little higher that some type of loosely
organized sps level complex of showers and storms could work
across the region late.

friday will feature both convective and potential heat concerns once
again. several additional progressive short waves are progged to
shift east out of the northern rockies into the corn belt region for
friday. the weak cin which may be present today should be eroded
by friday due to suppression of mid/upper level ridge and
concern will be for afternoon/evening hours for scattered
thunderstorm development downstream of yet another likely
convectively aided vort max. much of the north of us route 24
portion of cwa has been included in a slight risk of severe
storms for friday, with a marginal risk of severe storms
elsewhere. earlier indications may suggest areas north of us-6
with the greatest potential of strong/severe storms which could
represent best overlay of instability and slightly better shear
profiles across the southern great lakes. steep 0-3km lapse
rates and potential precip-loading/unidirectional wind profiles
suggest damaging wind gusts would be the greatest potential
threat friday afternoon/evening.

a challenge for friday will be how temp/heat index forecast is
impacted by the convective potential. some thought was given this
morning of extending the extreme heat warning through friday. upon
collaboration with surrounding offices, have opted to hold off at
this time given convective uncertainties, particularly if any
organized outflow boundary can push through friday am. the southeast
third of the area appears at this forecast distance to have best
chance of an additional day of 100+ heat indices. as mentioned in
previous discussion this could very well be a case where warnings
are extended into friday across the southeast, with advisory
scenario elsewhere.

on saturday, a somewhat more pronounced synoptic wave could eject
out of western conus longwave trough and will slowly track across
mid/upper ms valley and western great lakes through sunday,
eventually taking a cool front south through the area. some isolated
severe potential is possible this weekend, but confidence in details
very low at this point given low predictability with convective
enhancement of these short waves.

precip chances should lessen early next week as broad low level
anticyclone settles across the great lakes. medium range guidances
does suggest some uptick in northern tier westerlies middle to late
next work week with warming conditions and additional convective
chances as additional short wave progress through northern tier
flow.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 620 am edt thu jul 2 2026

convective potential through this period will continue to be the
primary aviation forecast concern this cycle. the more vigorous
convection in association with overnight convective complex
from se mn to the northern great lakes continues to backbuild
early this morning across extreme se mn and southwest wi.
additional scattered showers and isolated storms have formed
along an associated southeast sinking outflow boundary across se
wisconsin. this outflow boundary should gradually slow its
southeast speed this morning with still a good deal of
uncertainty whether any convection can develop along it across
northwest/portions of north central in. this boundary will be
settling into an area of much weak forcing with the convective
enhancement to the short wave likely remaining to the north
across the great lakes. confidence remains too low for taf
inclusion of showers and thunderstorms this morning at ksbn. it
is possible during peak heating this boundary could be a focal
point for an isolated storm, but greater confidence at this time
would be across south central/southeast lower michigan where
some weak synoptic contribution is possible. otherwise for
today, south-southwest winds around 10 knots will increase in
gustiness this afternoon, with strongest gusts around 20 knots
expected at ksbn.

for tonight, an additional convectively enhanced short wave is
expected to round the dampening upper ridge from the central
plains and possibly provide forcing for scattered showers and
storms across the southwest great lakes later this
evening/overnight. still some question as to the strength of
this convective vort max tonight, so have limited mention at
ksbn to prob30. confidence in showers/storms remains lower at
kfwa and will likely omit mention with the 12z tafs.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
616 am edt thu jul 2 2026

.key messages...

- an extreme heat warning remains in effect through this evening. it
will remain hot and humid on friday, with high temperatures in the
low to mid 90s.

- a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms exists this
afternoon through tonight, and continues friday and saturday.

- increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms on friday,
continuing at times over the weekend. will bring an isolated flood
threat.

- a gradual cool down begins on saturday, with highs finally
dropping into the 80s by sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a very moist and unstable background environment will provide the
underlying support to maintain at least a low probability for
thunderstorm development thru the taf period. upstream radar trends
show a lingering area of convection lifting across central lower mi.
there remains some potential for this activity to hold together and
push toward mainly mbs yet late this morning. otherwise, prospective
development possible at any location this afternoon into tonight. a
very low confidence setup in terms of offering greater detail on
timing or scale/location. at this stage, will continue to refrain
from offering a defined mention at any one location and allow trends
to develop and update as necessary. a brief mvfr to low vfr
diurnal cu likely to emerge as daytime heating takes hold, with
cloud base gradually lifting toward a higher based vfr deck with
time.

d21/dtw convection...there is an isolated thunderstorm potential for
the d21 airspace on thursday afternoon/night.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for thunderstorm potential this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 am edt thu jul 2 2026

discussion...

an extreme heat warning remains in effect through this evening,
though the northern half of the cwa may struggle to reach a 105 heat
index due to slightly lower temps and dew points. max temps
yesterday ended up in the mid to upper 90s, right on target, as the
00z dtx sounding indicated an 850 mb temp of 22 c. fortunately, some
drier low level air worked in from the south, dropping surface dew
pts into the upper 60s to lower 70s late in the day. this pocket of
drier air extending to 850 mb level will be exiting east this
morning as pseudo tropical moisture returns today. with the return
of higher surface dew pts (low-mid 70s) and moistening at 850 mb,
850 mb temps only progged to peak out around 21 c. thus, we are
looking at mostly mid 90s for high temperatures today (supported by
nam/ecm mos guidance). this holds especially true if convection
develops this afternoon, which remains a valid concern given the
level moisture advection and remnant outflow boundary from early
morning storms over northern lower michigan.

forecast soundings show cin getting eroded during the day or
dropping to minimal values. the preference is to carry at least
slight chance pop for thunderstorms this afternoon and especially
this evening. this is particularly true over the southern half of
the cwa, where steep mid level lapse rates persist, k indices push
into the 35-40 c along the southern michigan border, and upper level
pv advection works through western ohio. with mlcape in excess of
2000 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear in the 25-30 knot range, severe
storms are a distinct concern; the 00z rrfs indicates isolated
discrete storms late in the day.

the midwest storm breeding ground will remain active as multiple
shortwaves track out of the central plains this evening through
friday. as low level winds veer around from southwest to west this
evening/tonight, there is some concern for possible training of
storms along/close to the southern michigan border. however, plenty
of discrepancies remain regarding how fast upstream activity will
advance downstream and survive into southern lower michigan.

a high degree of uncertainty persists regarding temperatures and
timing of showers/thunderstorms on friday,though the nbm pops still
favors likely pops late in the day and evening. this delayed timing
would also allow heat indices to flirt with 105 degrees once again,
and will defer to the day shift to finalize heat headlines. later
timing would be more favorable for severe storms as well, but spc 2
outlook is marginal for now.

the pattern for the weekend looks wet as significant upper level
energy emerges from the rockies and a seasonably strong upper level
trough develops over the upper mississippi river valley by saturday.
the main question is will it advance east into the central great
lakes as two distinct pieces or as one main during the second half
of the weekend. canadian ensemble members favor a faster saturday
progression, showing 30-40% probability of a 24 hr qpf total >1"
over the detroit metro area, while the euro ensembles favor sunday.
either way, localized flooding will be a concern on either day.

marine...

high pressure remains nearly stationary over the southern
appalachians through the late week, maintaining a feed of a hot and
humid air into the great lakes. prevailing wind remains from the
south and southwest at 10 to 15 kt with gusts generally capped
around or below 20 kt due to higher stability over the relatively
cooler water. lake huron will reside near the edge of the cap which
offers potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today.
isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, capable of producing
wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail. the cap migrates
farther south by friday which brings higher chances for storms to
the rest of the region. a cold front then sags south on saturday,
bringing a wind shift to the north and maintaining the potential for
scattered showers and storms.

climate...

daily records for rest of the week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sf
marine.......tf
climate......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.