Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
195
fxus61 kcle 271150
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
750 am edt sun sep 27 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast has trended towards being dry this evening and
across the area wednesday. rain not expected until thursday now.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily dry, seasonal weather continues through wednesday,
with scattered rain showers returning by thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
seasonal weather continues continue today and through early
this week. a few sprinkles are possible this evening into
tonight across northwest pennsylvania but otherwise should be
dry through midweek. the forecast has trended towards being dry
wednesday, with rain showers expected thursday onwards as
scattered rain showers develop ahead a cold front that
approaches from the northwest.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
patchy fog has developed along and around us 30 this morning
and has briefly impacted kmfd. expect mvfr to ifr vis over the
next hour or two before the fog lifts. kcak and kyng could
briefly dip to at least mvfr too, but not confident enough to
put in those tafs. otherwise, mainly vfr is expected through the
taf cycle as high pressure remains in control. mvfr cigs will
try to move into keri late tonight associated with mid-level
clouds streaming westward from the east coast storm, but this is
trending slower.

ne winds will increase to 5-15 knots late this morning through
the afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 knots at times in north
central and ne ohio. winds will quickly diminish after sunset.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog are possible. non-vfr possible in
scattered showers on thursday.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds to 10 to 15 knots with periods of winds close
to 20 knots are expected through monday morning. waves east of
the islands will generally in the 2 to 3 ft range through monday
morning, through some 4 ft waves will possible, especially this
evening. light and variable flow is expected monday afternoon
through tuesday evening before become southerly 10 to 15 knots
tuesday night through wednesday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
839
fxus63 kiwx 271004
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
604 am edt sun sep 27 2026

.key messages...

- cool and dry conditions persist through tuesday.

- rain chances return wednesday through the weekend.

- the most likely chance for thunderstorms capable of heavy rain
is friday into the weekend. however, confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 128 am edt sun sep 27 2026

a diffuse area of vorticity runs into the vigorous shortwave
associated with the nor`easter along the east coast and this allows
for minimal impacts on our dry weather at hand as surface high
pressure and mid level ridging continue to remain in control of the
weather. 850 mb temperatures remain between 10 and 13c, warmest west
of in-15, until tuesday night and really the key to temperatures
increasing will be low level lapse rates which are the best on
monday east of i-69, but also reach 7+c/km today and tuesday. this
helps to keep high temperatures in the 70 to 75f range through
monday. finally, warmer mid teens 850 mb temps work into the area
tuesday through thursday with mid 70s more common across our
southwest counties and southern 1 row of counties. this is as a
higher theta-e plume swings through the area during this time frame.

the aforementioned theta-e plume also brings in enough moisture to
return talk about rain in the forecast again. by the time we get to
wednesday, the strong nor`easter along the east coast has pushed
eastward into the atlantic and a diffuse area of vorticity
associated with a positively tilted trough aloft and a surface warm
warm front enters the area. these warm fronts are synonymous with
having issues with dry air when it comes to causing precipitation,
especially when dry surface anticyclones have been in place overhead
like we`ve had. models continue to struggle with timing the
precipitation into the area with the ecmwf being the only med range
model causing precip across the area late tue night into early thu,
and it appears to be quite dry in its own right. finally, both the
gfs/aigfs/cmc all begin to push more rain into the area thu and this
is when the ecmwf finally brings its better moisture (65f dew
points, 10+c 850 mb dew points) through the area. during this whole
time, tue through late work week, mucape stays below 100 j/kg which
means the convective element remains missing through this whole time
period where rain chances are heightened. the ecmwf has a period of
weak large scale ascent moving into the area wednesday morning as
well as at times between thursday and the weekend. models now appear
to be much slower bringing the cutoff low in the south northward
toward the area, waiting until the weekend to do so and that`s why
the ecmwf has so much more large scale ascent to work with during
the weekend. as we head into the late week period, we`ll also have
to see where a cold front sets up because if it is just to our
south, we likely avoid the better moisture advection into the area
and surface high pressure is our main weather maker. in summary, for
this wednesday into the weekend period, rain appears possible at
times, but heavy rain and stronger storms appears harder to come by.
the greatest chance for heavy rain would be the later friday through
sunday period as long as a stalled front sets up just right across
the area. in line with the late week/weekend chance for rain, our
highs in the 70s forecast leading up to this period are expected to
be cooler, more like in the mid to upper 60s. at least our lows in
the 40s warm into the 50s and, at times, 60s with the rain around.

these rain chances look to be out of the area by the time we get to
early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 602 am edt sun sep 27 2026

dry weather remains with the surface high pressure system nearby and
mid level ridging exerting its influence over the area. patchy fog
is around this morning, especially in agricultural areas, but
would expect that to evaporate by around 13z. this does look to
stay away from the terminals though. winds back northerly from
northeasterly early in the period and stay below 10 kts
sustained.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
573
fxus63 kdtx 271314
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
914 am edt sun sep 27 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into tuesday.

- localized fog is possible this morning and again monday morning.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of next week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.update...

given the depth of the morning fog and low stratus per satellite, it
will likely take until late morning for some areas to clear out
completely. there has also been enhanced convergence along the
shoreline of saginaw bay from the mouth of the saginaw river up to
sand point which has been sustaining a decent low cloud plume
downwind of the bay. it will take diurnal mixing over land to
diminish this ongoing lakeshore convergence region. while there are
still a few sites reporting less than 1/4 mile visibility, ongoing
daytime heating will allow steady sfc visibility improvement.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 552 am edt sun sep 27 2026

aviation...

morning satellite imagery shows a couple of narrow corridors of low
stratus/fog moving southward. short-lived lifr reductions remain
possible at fnt and ptk prior to sunrise. high pressure extending
from southern lake michigan to northern quebec then ensures vfr
conditions across the terminal airspace for the daylight hours
amidst light northerly winds (aob 10 knots). mainly clear skies
again tonight with weak gradient winds trending toward calm. only
foregoing aviation forecast concern relates to the prevalence of fog
again late tonight into monday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

prev discussion...
issued at 337 am edt sun sep 27 2026

discussion...

a tranquil fall pattern continues for the next few days as high
pressure remains in control over se michigan. the origin of the
surface high however transitions away from quebec and toward the
emerging high pressure center over the upper midwest today. this
will reinforce the northeasterly winds that we have seen for the
past couple of days to maintain moisture flux off of lake huron. a
slight increase in wind speed and upstream moisture content over
ontario suggests slightly more aggressive moisture flux than
previous mornings. that said, synoptic scale moisture is still quite
minimal with the 27.00z kdtx sounding sampling pwat of 0.38" (10th
percentile per spc climatology). this has ultimately kept
fog/stratus localized to the thumb/saginaw valley. similar fog/low
stratus concerns will persist each morning until winds flip to the
south tuesday with the departure of the high.

otherwise, seasonable temperatures hold in the low 70s over the next
several days as the pattern remains at a standstill due to the
stalled nor`easter. no signs of any meaningful thickness advection
until tuesday when flow flips southwest as the east coast system
fills in and absorbs into the mean flow. by tuesday night, mid level
flow becomes zonal which opens the great lakes to a low amplitude
shortwave by early wednesday morning. majority of guidance brings
this pacific wave and its accompanying upper level moisture across
the state well ahead of low level gulf moisture. this keeps rain
chances low (<30%) for most of wednesday in favor of just increasing
cloud cover and possibly some virga. there remains disagreement in
model guidance regarding timing of the gulf moisture surge, which
will dictate when rain chances start to ramp up. this looks to be
sometime wednesday evening with rain chances then continuing through
thursday. return flow will eventually be cut off as a cold front is
dragged across northern conus by a northern stream low, which also
ushers in an even cooler airmass to start off october as highs will
only be in the mid-60s.

marine...

high pressure now situated over the great lakes will hold through
tuesday. some periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be
possible across southern lake huron this afternoon and evening, but
otherwise, wind gust potential to or below 15 knots is expected for
most locations. wind direction will mainly hold from the north to
northeast with high pressure in place.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....kgk
discussion...mv
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.