Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
447
fxus61 kcle 122020
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
320 pm est fri dec 12 2025

.synopsis...
a cold front crosses through early saturday, quickly followed by a
clipper that will track through the ohio valley saturday evening.
troughing lingers over the great lakes on sunday before high pressure
builds in for monday.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
a majority of tonight will feature mostly cloudy and chilly but quiet
conditions. lows are generally expected to bottom out in the low to
mid 20s, with some 10s across the higher terrain of the snowbelt and
perhaps out west of toledo. a shortwave will move into the great lakes
late tonight and push a cold front into the local area. the front
probably won`t quite get to cleveland by 12z/7 am saturday. a few
flurries or snow showers may occur across northern counties as the
front approaches, particularly near the erie pa lakeshore. any
accumulations of snow through 7 am saturday will be minimal.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
-lake effect snow (initial rates <1" per hour) pushes onshore
northeast of cleveland behind a cold front saturday morning.
-a clipper brings light snow to much of the area saturday afternoon
and evening, with heavier amounts focused south of us 30.
-lake effect intensifies along and near i-90 northeast of cleveland
late saturday afternoon and evening, with peak snow rates of 1-1.5"
per hour within bands. lake effect spreads farther inland late
saturday night into sunday before winding down late sunday night.
-coldest air of the young winter so far arrives saturday night.

the main focus for the weekend will be a clipper bringing at least a
light accumulation of snow to the entire area saturday afternoon and
evening, followed by lake effect snow that lingers into sunday night
southeast of lake erie. an assortment of winter weather advisories and
lake effect snow warnings have been issued (the reasoning for a lake
effect warning vs. winter storm is the large majority of the snow in
these counties being caused or enhanced by the lake). there has been a
subtle trend to nudge the clipper and its associated swath of snow
just a bit farther south/southeast with the latest run of guidance,
not enough to change the message much. there has not been notable
change to the general lake effect setup, aside from increased hi-res
guidance coming into range and allowing for some better fine-tuning.

outside of the snow...

temperatures on saturday will reach their highs in the morning to
around midday, ranging from the mid 20s to near 30, warmest east of
i-71. temperatures will likely slide slowly through the afternoon.
lows saturday night will range from the upper single digits to 10s.
highs on sunday will range from the upper 10s to mid 20s, with lows
sunday night again the single digits to 10s. wind gusts of up to 35
mph are possible near the eastern lakeshore on saturday, with
occasional gusts 20-30 mph elsewhere this weekend. this could lead to
a bit of blowing/drifting snow, though the biggest story will be wind
chills, falling to 0 to -10 degrees saturday night/early sunday and a
slightly "less cold" -5 to 5 degrees sunday night/early monday.

for areas not impacted by the lake enhanced / effect snow...

the first half of saturday outside of the snowbelt will be mostly
cloudy and chilly but quiet ahead of the clipper. do have a low
chance for flurries or snow showers across much of the area early
saturday as the cold front mentioned at the end of the near term
crosses. this should not lead to much snow as the bulk of the forcing
is missing the area to the north, perhaps some localized dustings.

widespread snow with the clipper will spread in quickly between 1-5 pm
saturday. today`s guidance has trended perhaps slightly more
suppressed with the shortwave responsible for the clipper (due to the
lobe of the polar vortex pressing into the great lakes a bit more),
though not enough to notably change the forecast or messaging. the
greatest mid-level frontogenesis/lift and hence heaviest snowfall is
expected to setup along and south of i-70 late saturday afternoon and
evening, though some of this stronger lift may briefly get into
southern portions of our area. this is a quick hitter, with the
widespread snow expected to exit between 8 pm - midnight saturday
night, giving way to hit/miss lingering snow showers outside of the
snowbelt. the highest snow to liquid ratios will likely reside across
southern portions of our area, where the lift is most likely to
intersect the dendritic growth zone (dgz) at times. farther north,
particularly towards toledo, the strongest lift will likely stay above
the dgz, meaning a lower ratio and more "dusty" snow. qpf has been
nudged just a touch south with this update. overall snowfall with the
clipper is generally 0.5-2" across the toledo area, increasing to 1-3"
across the rest of northwest ohio over towards findlay/norwalk and
2-4" across the rest of the area. it will be cold and this snow will
stick to roads, slowing travel late saturday into saturday night
across much of the area. in collaboration with surrounding offices,
hoisted an advisory for the clipper snow where at least a solid 3" or
more of snow is in the forecast for a county.

for locations impacted by the lake effect snow...

some lake effect will spread onshore along the i-90 corridor northeast
of cleveland saturday morning with and behind the initial cold frontal
passage, as mean boundary-layer flow shifts from southwest to closer
to due west. the initial lake effect setup through early saturday
afternoon will not be all that impressive, with lake-induced
equilibrium level (el) heights only rising to 6-8k feet, bringing
instability and lift only into the lower portions of the dgz.
instability will be rather marginal initially, with mid-level
moisture also lacking. still, there may be enough of a burst of snow
at least into erie county pa to have some impact (perhaps a quick 1 to
3"), so began the les warning for northwest pa at 12z/7 am saturday.
opted to begin all ohio headlines at 18z/1 pm, as any snow with the
initial push saturday morning along i-90 in oh will be fairly minor.
the lake effect likely lulls for a few hours late saturday morning and
early afternoon behind the cold front in some brief subsidence.

a more general light snow will overspread the snowbelt of northeast
ohio and northwest pa as a clipper goes by. not to repeat too much
from above, though this has nudged south perhaps just a tick in latest
guidance, not enough to substantially change the forecast. the clipper
looks to bring a general 1-3" of snow (without lake enhancement) to
the cleveland metro area and primary/secondary snowbelt region late
saturday afternoon and evening before exiting.

the increased synoptic moisture and lift with the clipper will help to
re-invigorate the lake snow (technically lake enhanced) later
saturday afternoon and saturday evening. lake-induced instability
still will not be deep at this point with lake-induced els hanging in
the 6-8k foot range...however, falling 850mb temperatures of -13 to
16c the first half of saturday night will support increasing low-
level instability over the ~3c lake waters (east of the islands) and
will also push the dgz lower and into the relatively shallow lake-
enhanced snow bands, increasing snow:liquid ratios within the lake
snow. with mean boundary layer flow in the 270-290 degree range (west
to slightly north of due west) over the lake and hi-res models
depicting decent convergence along the shoreline from near cleveland
up i-90, this suggests lake enhanced bands becoming more intense and
efficient near and just inland from the lakeshore late saturday
afternoon and evening. rates may reach 1" per hour at times...mainly
from northern/eastern cuyahoga county into lake, northern/central
geauga, ashtabula, erie, and northern crawford. this is yet another
event where the amount of snowfall near the lakeshore in lake,
ashtabula, and erie counties is not a slam dunk forecast...though if
the lakeshore does get heavy snow, it`d most likely be in this window
late saturday afternoon and evening. if the banding settles just south
of the lakeshore in this window the forecast there will bust too
high. still, given clear potential for banding to impact locations
closer to the lake early in the event did include the lakeshore zones
in the warning, even if confidence isn`t quite as high as just inland.

a relative lull is expected in the lake effect overnight saturday
night into pre-dawn sunday. not that it`ll entirely stop, though as
winds veer a bit more northwesterly behind a trough passage and as we
get into brief subsidence behind the clipper the snow will probably
push farther inland...perhaps getting into northeast lorain, more of
cuyahoga, southern geauga, northeastern summit, northern portage, and
trumbull...but also lose some organization overnight saturday night.

lake effect likely re-organizes sunday morning. the core of the upper
trough and cold air aloft will rotate over the area during the day
sunday. an increase in synoptic moisture and lift ahead of the main
upper trough axis should combine with rapidly cooling temperatures
aloft to support the lake effect as we get into sunday morning. winds
will veer more northwesterly on sunday and even north-northwest for a
time sunday evening and night. the shortening fetch and inherently dry
nature of arctic airmasses does lead to some question of the quality
and organization of lake effect snow on sunday, though guidance
currently depicts some synoptic moisture/support along with upstream
moisture connections to other lakes, which would help to offset those
concerns. after another subtle shortwave rotates through late sunday
on the backside of the departing upper trough, ridging starts build
from the west sunday night into monday. the snow forecast for sunday
and sunday night is still a bit far out for higher res guidance to
latch onto, so do expect some adjustments as we come into range.
however, expect a high snow:liquid ratio to persist on sunday as
forecast soundings show the strongest instability, moisture, and lift
intersecting the dgz at times. it`s worth noting that the airmass will
be cold/dry enough that snow ratios will likely be lower outside of
organized/deeper bands, with small flakes and a "dustier" snow.
however the heavier bands, which will likely be very dependent on
upstream connections (to lakes huron and michigan) as winds veer
northwesterly, should produce very fluffy snow and efficient
accumulations. a fairly intense band with connection to lake huron may
take most of sunday night to weaken across either far northeast oh or
northwest pa, though expect other activity to start losing steam
sunday evening. the northwest winds will support the bulk of
accumulations occurring across inland and higher terrain portions of
the primary and secondary snowbelt, with some hints at occasional
banding as far southwest as lorain/medina/stark/mahoning on sunday.

upgraded the watch to a warning from cuyahoga county points east,
though note that the warning in ohio kicks in at 18z/1 pm saturday.
the potential for west-east bands to bring 1" per hour snow rates late
saturday into saturday night, along with storm total accumulations of
6-12" from eastern cuyahoga county points east (locally up to 14" in
southern erie county), supports the warning. as mentioned above, there
is some "bust" potential in lakeshore zones given the second portion
of the event will favor inland locales, though the lakeshore
communities do have a chance to see heavy snow early on in the event.
also included surrounding counties (lorain, medina, summit, stark,
portage, trumbull and mahoning) in an advisory for a combination of
snow from the clipper and lake effect. the end times to these
headlines are staggered between late sunday and early monday. will
need to monitor medina, summit, portage, and trumbull for some warning
upgrades as we get into the event. would like to see hi-res models
come into range and better pin down where heavier bands may extend
into these secondary snowbelt counties before attempting any warnings.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
-after a cold monday, generally quiet weather with a moderating trend
is expected through wednesday. the next rain chance is thursday.

there may be a bit of lingering lake effect snow across far northeast
ohio and northwest pa early monday, but it`ll be on its way out. we`ll
still be in the thick of the cold on monday, though a notable warming
trend begins on tuesday. a fairly quiet first half of the week is
expected, with a cold front bringing a high likelihood for rain late
wednesday night and thursday. a brief cold snap may follow the front
to end the week, though the general pattern will be turning much more
zonal so a prolonged cold stretch is not expected.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
the persistent overcast will continue to erode from southwest to
northeast this afternoon, so expect kcak and kyng to be vfr
within the next hour, with kcle and keri becoming vfr by 20 to
21z. this will unfortunately not last long as clouds quickly
fill back in tonight ahead of an arctic cold front dropping
through the great lakes and a low pressure system (clipper)
approaching from the midwest. mvfr should return to ktol, kfdy,
and kmfd by 03z and to the rest of the terminals by 06 to 07z.
cannot rule out some brief passing snow showers or flurries
overnight at ktol, kfdy, and kmfd, but these terminals will be
mainly dry with just mvfr cigs until snow with the clipper
moves in saturday afternoon. it will be another story at kcle,
kcak, kyng, and keri as the arctic front pushes a band of
intense lake-effect snow showers inland saturday morning. this
band will 100% impact keri, so have a period of lifr with
visibilities below 1/2 mile saturday morning as it gradually
sinks south in the 09-15z timeframe, but timing is more
uncertain for kcle, kcak, and kyng. it is also not certain how
far inland the band will reach. so with this in mind, used tempo
groups for snow showers and 3sm visibilities saturday morning
at those terminals. mvfr or lower will then continue at all
sites after the taf period as areawide light snow from the
clipper system moves east into the region saturday afternoon.

light s to sw winds this afternoon will slowly veer to wsw by
saturday morning and increase to 10-15 knots. wsw winds will
continue at 10-15 knots saturday, gusting to 20-25 knots at
times.

outlook...non-vfr with areawide snow is expected saturday
afternoon into saturday night. lake effect snow will continue
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through monday
night.

&&

.marine...
active marine conditions will return to lake erie tonight as an
arctic cold front crosses the lake saturday morning. ahead of this
front, wsw winds will increase to 20-30 knots tonight into early
saturday morning. after the passage of the front, w winds will
slightly decrease to 15-25 knots from mid morning saturday through
the evening before turning nw and increasing again to 20-30 knots
saturday night and sunday behind a secondary front. this will build
wave heights to 5-9 feet in the central and eastern basins at times
saturday through sunday. winds will gradually decrease sunday night
while becoming w. hoisted small craft advisories late tonight
through monday morning, except have the far western basin from
maumee bay to the islands expiring at 18z saturday since there
should be a roughly 9 hour break in the winds there saturday
afternoon and evening before potentially increasing enough again for
another issuance saturday night into sunday.

after a short break monday morning, wsw winds will increase to 20-30
knots again in the afternoon before decreasing monday night, so
another short small craft headline will be needed for monday. sw
winds will average 10-20 knots monday night and tuesday, but another
system moving into the great lakes tuesday night into wednesday
could raise winds to 15-25 knots again, so additional small craft
headlines will be needed for mid week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 1 pm saturday to 7 am est monday
for ohz010-020>023.
lake effect snow warning from 1 pm saturday to 7 am est monday
for ohz011>014-089.
winter weather advisory from 1 pm saturday to 7 am est sunday
for ohz029>031-036>038-047.
winter weather advisory from 1 pm saturday to 7 pm est sunday
for ohz032-033.
pa...lake effect snow warning from 7 am saturday to 7 am est monday
for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
626
fxus63 kiwx 121941 cca
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
241 pm est fri dec 12 2025

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers tonight, primarily for berrien
county. accumulations of less than one inch.

- light snow saturday afternoon (accumulations 1 to 3 inches),
transitioning to lake effect snow showers saturday night into
sunday (additional 2-4").

- wind chills of -15 or colder saturday night and sunday night.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 228 pm est fri dec 12 2025

primary topics of interest this afternoon are 1) incoming clipper
system saturday afternoon and night (snow duration ~6 hours),
followed by lake effect snow, and 2) below-zero wind chills saturday
night and sunday night.

a compact but strengthening upper-level disturbance races across the
northern rockies this afternoon, arriving on our doorstep saturday
afternoon just as an upper-level low drops due south from ontario.
this results in a strengthening area of frontogenesis across central
indiana. forecast soundings depict a shallow dry layer saturating
quickly amid this highly-forced environment and a deepening
dendritic growth zone through time (approaching 500mb after 21z/4pm
est). given the continental polar source region of this air mass,
snow ratios will be high (+/-15:1) resulting in efficient
accumulation despite the brief residence time. snow amounts of 2" to
3" are expected south of us 24 while most of the forecast area will
see 1-2" from this clipper. the exception will be south-central
michigan which will generally miss both the clipper and subsequent
lake effect. wind from the northwest near 10 mph saturday will
result in some blowing and drifting. wind gusts near 20mph will be
confined to those downwind of lake michigan. synoptic ("system")
snow ends before midnight. an advisory was considered for my far
southern indiana counties, but seeing such low-end advisory amounts
amid an above-average snow season so far made me less enthused for
headlines. the incoming shift may update as needed, especially if
the storm track shifts north.

in the wake of this clipper, lake effect snow develops saturday
evening and persists through sunday. this is preceded by a brief
period of lake effect snow tonight, primarily for berrien county and
those along the toll road. equilibrium levels are shallow (< 5k ft)
with an elevated and poorly saturated dgz. thus, amounts by daybreak
saturday will be less than 1". given this < 1" accumulation for
tonight, opted to delay any headline issuance for the time being.
for lake effect snow saturday afternoon through sunday, accumulation
will favor berrien, cass (mi) la porte, and st. joseph (in)
counties. lake effect parameters will be most favorable saturday
night / early sunday morning.

outside of the lake effect snow, temperatures will plummet saturday
night as skies clear and canadian high pressure becomes established
over the ohio valley. those near white and cass (in) counties will
see lows below zero while the remainder of the forecast area will
see single-digit lows. being at the mercy of decreasing clouds, this
decreases forecast confidence for the issuance of any cold weather
advisories at this time. sunday night, with lake effect clouds
decreasing, all areas are expected to be on either side of 0. wind
chills of -15 to -20 may warrant a cold weather advisory.

thawing out tuesday through thursday as upper-level ridging moves
in. highs will creep into the 40s wednesday and thursday. low
pressure moves through the upper midwest late in the week bringing
renewed chances for rain and snow.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1244 pm est fri dec 12 2025

patchy mvfr stratus continues across northern indiana to begin
this period with greatest coverage roughly from knox in to fort
wayne in. conditions have temporarily improved to vfr at south
bend, but subtle southwest flow/low level theta-e northward
moisture transport into early this evening in advance of a
western great lakes upper level short wave should allow patchy
mvfr cigs to affect ksbn later this afternoon into this evening.
slight veering of low level winds in response to this short
wave passage (better fetch for lake enhancement) and some
increase in inversion heights could promote some snow showers at
ksbn. greater confidence in snow is still with system snow for
saturday. this system will be highly sheared in nature and will
feed off tight 700-500 mb baroclinicity/fgen. the heaviest snow
is expected to remain south of the terminals but a period of
snow is expected at both terminals with at least mvfr/ifr vsby
restrictions. best chance of vsbys <1sm during the saturday
afternoon period is at kfwa given proximity of the elevated
frontal zone.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
742
fxus63 kdtx 122030
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
330 pm est fri dec 12 2025

.key messages...

- bitter cold temperatures for the weekend into monday. the coldest
period will be saturday night and sunday morning. expect wind
chills to range between -15f to -10f by sunday morning.

- higher-end chances (50-60%) for light snow overnight. snow
accumulations will range from trace amounts up to a half-inch. a
second chance (30-50%) for snow returns tomorrow afternoon and
evening from i-94 south. up to an additional half-inch will be
possible.

- a dramatic warmup is then forecasted tuesday-thursday next week,
as temps likely push aoa 40 degrees, setting the stage for potential
rain.

&&

.discussion...

for the remainder of the afternoon and evening... a stratus deck has
filled back in across se mi which will sustain into the overnight
hours under an established low-level inversion. overnight, a strong
pv anomaly now extending into northern minnesota will continue to
drive south into the northern great lakes. this will push a cold
front over michigan through the morning hours and will bring the
chance for light accumulating snow. both the shallow moist
isentropic ascent up through 750mb ahead of the front and shallow
convergence along the cold front itself will provide forcing for
light snow chances overnight. snowfall totals will range from trace
amounts, up to a half-inch, with snow chances ending by 12z.

strong cold air advection behind the front will bring decreasing
temperatures through the day and will maintain a shallow but stark
mixing layer which will produce wind gusts on the order of 20 to 30
mph. cold temperatures in conjunction with breezy conditions will
produce wind chills around 0 degrees to the low single digits across
se mi by the afternoon hours. flurries will remain possible given
the shallow but strong lllr and sufficient 0-1km moisture, but
moisture depths are too shallow to sustain accumulation. the one
exception will be around i-94 and locations south in the afternoon
and early evening as an upper-level wave rounds into the ohio
valley. the northern precipitation shield of this feature has low-
end chances to clip southern michigan which can bring light
accumulations up to a half-inch. the updated forecast will hold pop
values to 20% up around the i-94, increasing to 50% near the border.

the upper-level wave will continue to deepen across the great lakes
through the weekend which will reinforce this significant cold air
intrusion. while the magnitude of the wind speeds are not out of the
normal, ensemble v-wind anomalies highlight the rarity of a
sustained due-northerly fetch for mid-december, maximizing cold air
transport. 850mb temperatures drop to near -20c and 700 mb
temperatures to -26c by sunday morning. temperatures drop to around
the 0 degree mark sunday morning with wind chills ranging from -15f
to -10f. a cold weather advisory will be under consideration for
parts or all of the cwa for sunday morning. temperatures remain
capped in the 20s for a high on sunday, returning into the single
digits overnight, with a return back into the 20s by monday.
overall, expect temperatures to run roughly 20 to 25 degrees below
normal through monday.

a pacific wave will arrive onshore by the midweek which will deepen
east of the rockies before arriving across michigan thursday. flow
will back to the southwest in response to this wave, bringing
temperatures back to near normal values tuesday and likely above
normal wednesday-thursday, with thursday having the best chance to
see temperatures peak aoa 40 degrees. while near the end of the
forecast package, ensembles are showing moderate convergence
highlighting moderate ivt ahead of a cold front on thursday,
bringing increasing confidence for rain showers.

&&

.marine...

southwesterly winds will be slowly increasing through the rest of
the day and overnight ahead of an approaching arctic front tied to a
low pressure system that will track across ontario tonight. winds
will turn westerly overnight behind the front and will increase with
gusts up to 30 knots possible across parts of central and southern
lake huron. winds will remain elevated in the upper 20 knot range
through saturday with the coldest of the arctic air arriving late
saturday and overnight which will cause a boost to the winds to
around 30 knots across the southern basin. at this time, guidance
suggests we`ll stay below 35 knot gales but that will be something
to watch in the coming days. a long duration small craft advisory is
in effect this evening through monday morning to account for this
cold unstable airmass and period of wind and waves. the cold airmass
and elevated winds will also lead to potential snow squalls and
freezing spray as well.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1148 am est fri dec 12 2025

aviation...

sfc high pressure over se mi and dry ambient airmass has caused a
general erosion of the stratus across much of se mi. developing
southwest flow in advance of an approaching cold front will focus
the stratus deck across the mbs and fnt region this afternoon.
forecast expansion of the low clouds late this afternoon evening will
increase chances for low cloud re expansion across the remainder of
the terminals later in the day. the cold front is forecast to track
across se mi between 06z and 12z saturday morning. frontal
convergence and enhancement off lake mi will support an area of light
snow showers along/in advance of the front. the overall brief period
of stronger forcing will keep snow accums less than an inch.

for dtw...the window of opportunity for snow showers will be between
06z and 10z. a forecast weakening of the forcing as the front moves
across se mi suggests just a potential for a dusting of accumulation
overnight

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon. moderate tonight
and low sunday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am est monday for
lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est saturday
for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......drk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.