Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
147 pm est wed feb 11 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast. a more
prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this
weekend into next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily light snow showers will persist across portions of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania into thursday night
with minimal impacts expected.

2) a more prolonged period of above average temperatures will
return this weekend and continue into next week.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

regional satellite and radar observations reveal mid-level
moisture returning across the region, resulting in drizzle
transitioning back to generally light snow showers across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the 850
mb air mass will gradually become colder over the next 12 hours,
dropping from about -10 degrees c this afternoon to near -15
degrees c by early thursday morning.

although lake erie remains ice covered, lake-induced moisture
from lake huron should allow snow showers to persist across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through
much of thursday. at least initially, poor moisture within the
dgz should largely limit efficient snow processes into this
evening. as the air mass cools overnight, dgz moisture will
increase, particularly across inland northwest pennsylvania
where 1 to 2 inches of snow could fall by thursday morning.
otherwise, generally limited accumulations are expected as
temperatures remain rather marginal amidst weak snowfall rates.

.key message 2...
above average temperatures are poised to return by saturday as a
large upper-level ridge begins to take shape across much of the
central and eastern conus. this upper-level ridge will likely
remain in place into tuesday, though may begin to briefly break
down as a strong trough approaches the midwest by wednesday.

in terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid-40s for the
weekend will increase further into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
early next week. minimal precipitation is expected through
tuesday which does bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on
area rivers and a melting snowpack.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
bkn/ovc clouds are observed across the area with ceilings mainly
in the 2,500 to 3,500 ft range, though mostly under 3,000 ft.
ceilings are generally expected to stay in that range, though
gradually improving conditions with fewer clouds by thursday
morning, especially in northwest ohio. light snow showers are
expected through tonight before gradually diminishing during the
day thursday. isolated lower visibilities (in the 2 to 5 sm
range) may be possible at times. winds around 10 to 14 knots
with gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected through this evening
before diminishing to around 7 to 10 knots tonight into
thursday.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain on sunday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered, though recent satellite
imagery depicts several large cracks that have developed in the ice
over the central basin. west-northwest winds will remain slightly
elevated at 15-20kt through this evening, before gradually subsiding
to 10-15kt tonight and thursday. winds decrease to under 10kt late
thursday into early friday, before increasing to 15-25kt out of the
southwest friday afternoon and evening. winds should be fairly light
this weekend with high pressure moving near lake erie late saturday.
ice will get pushed to the east-southeast through thursday, before
getting pushed northeast friday and friday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
147 pm est wed feb 11 2026

.key messages...

- quiet and dry through the work week with near normal temperatures.

- the persistent snowpack will continue to gradually melt this week.

- low chances for rain on sunday (20-30%), mainly along and south of
us 30.

- mild air returns early next week with highs in the 50s! &&

.discussion...
issued at 146 pm est wed feb 11 2026

there are no significant weather concerns in the next 7 days. winter
will continue to take a hiatus with a mostly dry week ahead and
steadily warming temperatures.

high pressure is building across the central conus today, which
means quiet and dry weather is expected to continue. yesterday`s
mild temperatures in the 40s contributed to a high rate of melting
for our persistent snowpack. after nearly three weeks of snow cover,
there has been a lot of melting in the past 24 hours! intermittent
sunshine, a higher sun angle, and temperatures above freezing will
aid in additional melting of the snowpack over the next several
days. the aforementioned high pressure will move into the great
lakes by the end of the week, suppressing any chances for
precipitation. expect highs in the low to mid 30s over the next few
days, with a gradual warm up to the 40s by the weekend.

upstream satellite imagery shows additional clouds that are expected
to advect in overnight. given that there is still some snowpack (1-
3" along and south of us 30 and i-69; 6-9" near the south bend area
and into sw lower michigan), advection fog may develop thursday
morning as a result of additional moisture near the surface due to
snowmelt. models vary widely with some having no restrictions to
visibility (thus no fog development) and others showing high
probabilities for visibility as low as 0.5 mile or less (some
members of the href). confidence is low but fog may develop downwind
of lake michigan, mainly between 06-13z thursday. in addition, with
temperatures falling into the low 20s tonight, any snowmelt today
will refreeze, creating concerns for black ice. watch out for
patches of black ice on bridges, overpasses, sidewalks, and
secondary roads during the thursday morning commute!

the next (and only) chance for precipitation comes late saturday
night into sunday. recent gfs and ecmwf runs depict an upper
level trough developing as it moves onshore to california on
friday, eventually becoming highly amplified and potentially
even cutoff from the jetstream over the southeastern us over the
weekend. ensemble guidance still varies on exact track and
timing, although confidence is increasing that this system will
track well south of the area and we may not get any
precipitation out of it. with building high pressure over
ontario this weekend, this may suppress all activity to our
south. with the upper level low tracking through the southeast
us, our area will likely be on the northern fringes of any
precipitation. for now, have kept 20-30% pops mainly south of us
30. better chances for rain will be in central and southern
indiana and ohio on sunday.

an upper level ridge is expected to build and strengthen across
the central and eastern conus early next week. there is
increasing confidence for well above normal temperatures monday
and onwards given a decent signal from long range ensemble
model guidance. highs in the 50s are likely; some locations
south of us 24 may even make a run at 60 degrees early next
week! a more active pattern looks to resume by the middle of
next week with chances for rain returning next wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1228 pm est wed feb 11 2026

with the area on the southern periphery of a trough and with
vorticity streaming by overhead, stratus was continuing to stream
southeast from lake mi, which may have been enhancing cloud
formation. a thin layer of moisture potentially from lake mi as well
as from snowmelt continues to remain trapped under the inversion in
some capacity through the taf period on rap time-sections so mvfr
conditions are expected to continue for a few hours this afternoon
at sbn, and a little longer at fwa, before vfr conditions take over.

winds continue to come in out of the northwest predominantly, but
wouldn`t be surprised for times of westerly winds with the area on
the periphery of cloud cover. a sinking mixing height and a slowly
weakening low level jet with surface high pressure pushing in allows
for weakening of sustained winds and gusts by mid afternoon or
evening. also, cannot rule out a period of reduced visibility
potentially into mvfr with haze from snowmelt occurring especially
as those winds are reduced this afternoon. sbn was able to drop to
7mi from 10mi so haze was there and it was at the iwx office as
well, but winds were around 10 kts sustained and clear skies as
opposed to overcast or broken so we`ll have to see what happens when
winds dip below 10 kts today if vis does as well.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1248 pm est wed feb 11 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with temperatures near average through thursday, then a
slight warm-up friday through this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

northwest flow (10-15 knots sustained) maintains a persistent lake
aggregate moisture plume across the great lakes. this has caused
ceilings to fluctuate between about 2.0 and 4.0 kft agl, while
squeezing out a few flurries across northern portions of the
airspace. main adjustment to the taf was to extend mvfr ceilings
through the overnight hours as inversion heights are expected to
lower and trap the lake moisture. high pressure builds into the
region thursday, allowing northwest flow to relax below 10 knots and
likely reducing moisture flux off of the lakes. opted for a more
optimistic cloud forecast thursday which scatters out mvfr early in
the afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through thursday morning.
medium by mid-day thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1120 am est wed feb 11 2026

update...

minor update this morning to include a slight chance/isolated
flurries through the afternoon into the early evening. a few
observations this afternoon warranted at least some mention in the
forecast. not expecting accumulation with activity.

prev discussion...
issued at 307 am est wed feb 11 2026

discussion...

remnant upper troughing over the great lakes maintains cooler
northwest flow into lower mi which likewise maintains a stream of
lake effect stratocu through the day. colder airmass (850mb temps
around -13c) is marginal for a lake response resulting in more muted
development off lake michigan and offering only scattered flurry
potential for se mi at best this afternoon. main impact instead is
thermally with cloud cover limiting insolation, combined with modest
caa, keeping highs below freezing (around 30) for the vast majority.
similar forecast for thursday as the western edge of upper troughing
lingers over the central great lakes offering no change in airmass.
midwest surface high pressure begins to expand over southern lower
mi through the day however supporting light nw winds as well as a
few more breaks in continuing lake effect cloud cover.

surface ridge axis crosses se mi by friday morning as low amplitude
upper ridging within spilt flow builds in from the plains. while
longer range models suggest some phasing of the northern/southern
streams, this flow pattern favors the then developing southern
stream shortwave tracking well to our south. probabilities of precip
tied to this system have steadily fallen with chances now under 20%.
instead, weekend is more likely characterized by weak surface high
pressure and dry conditions. upper pattern also keeps colder air
confined to northern ontario/eastern canada with local 850mb temps
holding around 0c through the weekend supporting above normal highs
around 40f. amplifying central conus upper ridging next work week
favors a continuation of above average temps going into mid-february.

marine...

low pressure will continue to progress from eastern lake ontario
into new england through the morning, which will maintain colder
northwest flow across the great lakes. the increased proximity to
low pressure and reinforcement of cold air has sustained a moderate
pressure gradient with elevated mixing depths. gusts to gales remain
possible across northern and north-central lake huron, where a gale
warning remains in effect.

high pressure to gradually build in late in the day today through
thursday which will end gale potential and will promote lighter
winds through the remainder of the midweek period. a clipper system
may encroach upon lake huron on friday which has potential to bring
wind gusts aoa 20 knots, but otherwise high pressure builds back in
over the weekend, maintaining lighter winds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
update.......aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.