Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
144 am edt sat aug 22 2026

...06z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track. low chance for precipitation in nw oh
late this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
saturday afternoon and evening with a low end severe threat.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight and, with
greater coverage, saturday afternoon and evening with a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather.

2) lingering showers in ne oh and nw pa likely sunday through monday
with below average temperatures expected across the region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure continues to build off to into eastern canada through
the end of the today as a surface low pressure system enters the
western great lakes. this system will bring widespread precipitation
and severe weather potential to the region saturday afternoon into
the evening. ahead of this system, a shortwave is expected to move
through the southern great lakes that will generate some low end
potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly for western and north
central ohio. through the early morning there may be some lingering
showers across western ohio that will be dissipating as the move
eastward into the mid morning hours. this could inhibit the overall
severe weather threat later in the afternoon and evening depending
on how quickly the showers dissipate and cloud cover clears.

ahead of the surface cold front, there will be a pre-frontal that
will move through the region and be the support for severe weather
to develop off of. models have been in decent agreement of the
timing of storms starting in north central ohio in the late
afternoon and moving eastward through the late evening. there will
be decent instability in the form of around 1500 j/kg of mlcape with
low level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km. though, the limited amount of
shear will be a limiting factor for severe weather potential as
there will be around 20-30 knots of bulk shear. the main threats for
this system will be damaging winds within downbursts with a
secondary threat of large hail possible. the cold front will pass
through late saturday evening into early sunday morning, though with
the atmosphere being worked over with the pre-frontal trough, severe
weather is not expected with the passage.

overall precipitation accumulation has remained on track with
previous forecast runs with between 0.25" and 0.75" expected, with
the higher end amounts across northeastern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania. flash flooding potential is on the lower end for this
system, though a quick inch or two of rain is possible in the
stronger storms that could bring some nuisance flooding. overall,
the severe weather threat and widespread precipitation is expected
to end before daybreak on sunday.

key message 2...
behind the cold front passage early sunday morning there will be a
lingering trough that sets up across eastern lake erie that persists
through monday. a much cooler canadian high pressure will begin to
build into the western great lakes on sunday as well that will usher
in unseasonably cooler temperatures. with the lake relatively warm
still, lake effect showers are likely across the primary snowbelt
region. showers will persist through monday with chances decreasing
into tuesday as upper level ridge builds in to the ohio valley that
will shift flow across lake erie to be more westerly than
northwesterly.

temperatures as a result of the canadian high pressure building in
will drop to be below average for sunday and monday before beginning
to rebound tuesday. highs across the region on sunday will be in the
upper 60s in northwest pennsylvania to the mid 70s in northwestern
ohio. monday, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler before
everyone warms back up into the mid 70s on tuesday. overnight lows
will be down into the mid to low 50s sunday and monday before they
rise back up to near normal.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
the primary concerns and possible impacts for our local
aviation weather at area airports will be the potential for a
round of scattered convection this afternoon into the early
evening. there is a marginal risk for a couple strong to severe
storms ahead of an approaching cold front later today. there is
some isolated convection with a warm front early this morning
which could impact cle briefly between 06z and 09z with vcts or
-tsra. there will be a lull in shower and storm chances through
late this morning. the cold front will start to move into nwoh
around midday to early afternoon. there are prob30 groups for a
5 to 6 hour time window from west to east between 16z this
afternoon to 01z this evening. any heavier showers and storm
that impacts a taf site will likely have a brief period of mvfr
to ifr visibility reductions and ceilings with cb around 3k
feet near the frontal passage. the convection should move
eastward out of the neoh and nwpa after 00z scattered lake
enhanced rain showers will likely develop around cle, yng, and
eri later this evening into the overnight with possible mvfr
ceilings and visibility at times.

winds will start out from the south or southwest this morning 5
to 10 knots. southwest winds will slightly increase 8 to 12
knots by midday through the afternoon/evening with gusts up to
20 knots possible. any isolated strong to severe convection may
have some isolated higher wind gusts up to 45 knots this
afternoon. winds will switch from the west-northwest late this
evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr conditions will be likely sunday through
monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated
thunder possible for areas downwind of lake erie in northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
onshore flow out of the northeast ends this evening, turning
offshore tonight less than 10kts and wave heights coming down
below 1ft. a cold front approaches saturday with increasing
storm chances, and passage across the lake expected in the
evening. winds become northwesterly 15-25kts through sunday
night with wave heights climbing to 3-6ft and will likely need a
small craft advisory for the central and eastern basins. with
this being a cooler airmass over the warmer lake, waterspouts
could become an issue during this same time frame. winds ease
and become offshore midweek, bringing wave heights down.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
219 am edt sat aug 22 2026

.key messages...

- 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms arrive tonight
through saturday. an isolated strong storm capable of gusty
winds and brief heavy rain is possible west of us-31 late this
evening and east of i-69 saturday afternoon.

- dangerous swimming conditions expected for southeast lake
michigan beaches on saturday and sunday with high swim risks
both days. northwest winds will gust to 30 mph with waves of 3
to 5 feet.

- dry weather returns sunday and monday with below normal
temperatures and low humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 132 pm edt fri aug 21 2026

an upper level low over the hudson bay will be the focus of the
forecast for the next 36-48 hours, as the attendant cold front with
this system sweeps through our area and brings periodic chances for
rain and storms tonight through early sunday. mainly dry conditions
are expected to continue this afternoon, however, isolated
showers and storms remain possible through sunset east of i-69
with a leading 500 mb shortwave associated with the upper level
low. scattered cumulus development is already noted on visible
satellite imagery this afternoon. isolated showers are also
likely in the vicinity of lake michigan this afternoon where a
dying convection complex from upstream is moving in. into this
evening, with the cold front still back in wisconsin and the
upper level trough expected to begin to dig into the great
lakes, we will have to watch what additional development there
is upstream over southern wisconsin and northern illinois. cams
are in fairly good agreement in a cluster of storms developing
this evening to our northwest and diving southeast after sunset.
given that shear and instability will wane after sunset, these
storms should be diminishing by the time they reach northwest
and north central indiana tonight. can`t rule out an isolated
gusty storm or two but not expecting much if any severe threat.
locations along and east of i-69 will remain dry until daybreak
saturday.

showers gradually become more numerous as the front pushes eastward
and as the upper level trough amplifies during the morning and early
afternoon hours on saturday. have maintained pops between 30-60% on
saturday, with the highest chances in northwest ohio. with the front
expected to come through between the morning and early afternoon
hours, this is not the most favorable diurnal timeframe for storms.
again, can`t rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in
northwest ohio) as a corridor of up to 1500 mlcape could develop
east of i-69, but the likelihood of organized severe weather
tomorrow is low given marginal shear of 20-30 kts and poor low/mid
level lapse rates. with a tightening pressure gradient and strong
cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing front on saturday
evening, i wouldn`t be surprised if widely scattered lake effect
showers develop downwind of lake michigan for several hours late
saturday into early sunday. winds will be breezy out of the
northwest through the remainder of the weekend with northwest winds
gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph.

the aforementioned frontal passage is expected to stir up southern
lake michigan, generating large waves and dangerous currents
throughout the weekend. northwest, onshore flow with northwest winds
gusting to 30 mph will allow for waves to build to 3 to 5 feet with
strong currents expected. high swim risks will be in place both days
this weekend. beach hazards statements will need to be issued this
afternoon for berrien and la porte counties at least for saturday.
there will be a lull in winds and possibly waves overnight before
dangerous conditions ramp up again into sunday, with additional
headlines likely needed. heed beach flags/lifeguards and stay
out of the water!

high pressure builds into the great lakes and midwest regions again
by sunday, giving us the first taste of fall as temperatures and
dewpoints fall to comfortable levels. temperatures will be slightly
below normal on sunday and monday with highs in the low to mid 70s
with northwest flow behind the cold frontal passage. a few crisp
nights are ahead sunday night and monday night with lows in the low
to mid 50s. with much drier air building in, dewpoints only in the
50s will make for several nice days! another cold front moves in
wednesday with low chances (20-30%) for rain/storms maintained.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 156 am edt sat aug 22 2026

expect predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions at the terminals,
with quick periods of ifr possible. a cold front will pass from
west to east through the period, with potential for showers,
storms, and br/fog development. so far this evening has been
fairly quiet with respect to t-storm activity along the cold
front just west of lake mi. have tempos in for any
showers/storms and 3-5sm br, first at ksbn then at kfwa. mvfr
ceilings move in behind the front and then eventually break to
vfr by mid-late afternoon.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from 10 am cdt this morning through
sunday evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 11 am edt this morning through
sunday evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1208 am edt sat aug 22 2026

.key messages...

-there is a marginal/isolated risk of strong/severe thunderstorms
this afternoon.

- breezy and cooler conditions arrive sunday with a lingering chance
for showers.

- dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures start off the
week on monday.

&&

.aviation...

predominately vfr ceilings through the early morning hours as
increased moisture supports higher coverage of mid/high clouds while
winds hold out of the s to se. there remains low potential for stray
rain showers through the early morning hours, but coverage remains
low enough to preclude mention through remainder of tonight. better
chance resides across fnt/mbs during the mid to late morning hours.
cold front mid-day will bring widespread coverage of showers with
scattered thunderstorms along with potential for mvfr ceilings with
the passage of the front. winds become westerly by the afternoon and
increase up to around 10 knots then becoming northwesterly in the
evening.

d21/dtw convection... very limited chance for an isolated
thunderstorm remainder of tonight and low enough to leave mention
out of tafs. increasing coverage of convection is expected to occur
after noon with the highest probability between 18 and 23z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for thunderstorms tonight. moderate after 18z today.

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. moderate in the
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 pm edt fri aug 21 2026

discussion...

a couple meso scale vorticity centers apparent on the latest
radar/satellite composite which have emerged from earlier convection
across eastern wisconsin will track across southern and central
lower mi late this afternoon. this added pva with the advection of a
narrow moisture and instability axis into se mi will support a
chance for convection late this afternoon and evening. ongoing deep
layer moisture and weak elevated instability advection in advance of
the longer wavelength inbound trough will sustain chances for
convection across the entire forecast area through the night. cloud
cover and boundary layer moisture advection will lead to a milder
night in relation to last night with min temps largely in the 60s.

amplification of the longer wavelength trough will persist through
the weekend with the main mid level positive vorticity axis forecast
to pass across se mi during peak daytime heating saturday. the
resident moist axis and diurnal heating will contribute to weak
instability by early saturday afternoon. this will support high
chances for showers/thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon.
cloud cover and potential early day showers will limit daytime highs
to the 70s. ml cape values are therefore forecast to remain at or
below 1500 j/kg. this and 0-6km bulk shear values at or below 25
knots will mitigate the severe weather risk. there has been some
trends toward a little steeper mid level lapse rates saturday, which
could lead to some higher downdraft cape potential warranting an
isolated risk for some stronger/severe convection. mean total
forecast qpf values have increased slightly over the last few model
cycle, now around 4 tenths of an inch. high end totals (95th
percentile) of 1 to 1.25 inches are possible within any slow moving
convection.

the 12z model suite has trended toward the evolution of a deeper
more closed upper low over the eastern great lakes sunday into
monday resulting from better phasing with secondary mid level pv
anomaly dropping down from northern ontario sat night. this will
drive a respectable thermal trough (850mb temps down to the single
digits) across lower mi sunday which now looks to persist into
monday. this will ensure seasonally cool (almost fall-like)
temperatures to finish the weekend and start the new week. steep low
level lapse rates and moisture flux off the great lakes will
contribute to ample cloud cover sunday. this secondary short
wave/positive pv anomaly is now forecast to brush across se mi sun
afternoon. despite an overall lack of deep layer moisture, this wave
may allow a brief uptick in convective cloud depth, offering at
least a chance for some afternoon showers. a progressive northern
stream wave is forecast to bring the next chance for
showers/thunderstorms mid week (wed/thurs time frame). ensemble
members still show a fair amount of spread among timing and precip
chances with this system .

marine...

the departure of high pressure into the continental northeast will
allow winds across the great lakes to back to the southwest this
afternoon with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances building in
across northern lake huron ahead of the next cold front. the cold
front will progress across the great lakes through tomorrow morning
and afternoon, expanding rain and thunderstorm chances across the
remainder of the forecasted area. winds will continue to veer to the
northwest in the wake of the passing front, and will increase in
intensity and remain elevated through sunday as cooler is ushered
in. wind gusts will likely range around 25 to 30 knots through the
weekend. the switch in wind direction from the northwest will
quickly build wave heights in and around the thumb which will likely
result in the issuance of small craft advisories by sunday morning.
high pressure builds back in monday and tuesday which will bring
about lighter winds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.