Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
717
fxus61 kcle 152338
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
738 pm edt tue sep 15 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) shower and thunderstorms chances increase late tonight across
northwestern ohio with a few strong storms possible.

2) unsettled weather continues through the week as a frontal
boundary wavers across the ohio valley.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure continues to build off to the east this afternoon and
evening as a low pressure system moves through northern ontario. as
the low moves to the east, the corresponding warm front has moved
north through the region this afternoon with the cold front passing
through late tonight into wednesday morning. precipitation chances
will start to increase with the frontal passage in northwestern ohio
and spread across the lake shore to the east. more towards central
ohio will remain fairly dry for now as an upper level ridge sits
over the southeast conus and the shortwaves supporting precipitation
will move along the northern periphery. as for the precipitation
chances overnight tonight, there will be a marginal chance for
severe weather across northwestern ohio, but given the time frame
the front will be moving through, instability will be limited. there
will be around 500 j/kg of mlcape, around 30 knots of bulk shear,
and dcape will be limited as well at roughly 600-800. so overall,
the severe weather chances will be on the lower end, but not zero if
a thunderstorm can strengthen enough to have stronger wind gusts.
with that, spc has placed the majority of northwestern ohio in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with the main threat being
damaging winds. severe threat should dwindle into the morning hours
tomorrow. additionally, there will be a low chance of a heavy rain
threat for northwestern ohio with these thunderstorms as pwat values
will climb to around 2 inches in the area. with instability and
lapse rates lacking though, the risk will be low, but not zero for
any thunderstorm to drop a quick 1-2 inches of rain.

key message 2...
the cold front will continue to push southward wednesday morning
though will be fairly weak. there will be little air mass change
expected with it and should stall out across the ohio valley
wednesday evening. not expecting any thunderstorms to be severe
during the day wednesday as lapse rates will be lacking across the
region. there may be a few storms that generate some strong gusts
though as instability will be higher with daytime heating and dew
points will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. rounds of
precipitation is expected through thursday evening. currently there
is some variance in model guidance as to where the front sets up to
the south and where the shortwaves are that will support
thunderstorms. there will also continue to be a heavy rain threat
through thursday as pwat values will still be around 2 inches, but
with lapse rates on the lower end, the heavy rain threat will be on
the lower end. that being said, with more instability across the
region tomorrow and thursday, there will be a little more help
getting some thunderstorms to produce heavy rain. by thursday
evening into friday morning, the frontal boundary will push further
south as high pressure builds in from the north across the great
lakes and precipitation chances will decrease to end the week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
a cold front will begin to move towards the western taf sites
over the next several hours and conditions will deteriorate.
showers and thunderstorms are expected in ktol by 02z and will
progress east to southeastward through the morning. the front
will weaken as it moves into northern ohio, so confidence is
lower on kmfd, kcak, and kyng being impacted. ceilings will drop
from west to east as well through the morning with every site
being 5kft and below by mid morning. another round of
showers/thunderstorms are possible later in the taf period, but
confidence is low in impacts to terminals and timing. there will
be very little recovery for ceilings above 5kft during this taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr possible at times in scattered showers/storms
through thursday night. non-vfr possible with showers and
thunderstorms saturday into sunday.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are currently around 5-15 knots out of the
south behind a warm front that passed through earlier today. winds
will diminish through the evening tonight down to 5-10 knots then
shift to be out of the north as a cold front will pass over the
lake. winds will generally be light around 5-10 knots and waver
between northerly and easterly through thursday evening. there will
increase to 10-15 knots out of the north friday morning as high
pressure starts to build in from the north then shift to the east
throughout the day friday into the weekend. waves throughout the
week should be 2 feet or less across the lake, though choppier
conditions are possible during period of stronger winds. rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are possible across the lake through
thursday evening with occasional gusts and higher waves possible
within the storms.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
449
fxus63 kiwx 152334
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
734 pm edt tue sep 15 2026

.key messages...

- warm and humid conditions to persist into thursday with
chances for showers and thunderstorms (40 to 70%) through the
period. challenges continue determining the most favorable
periods, location and impacts across the area.

- if storms can organize or interact into this evening, a few
could produce strong to locally severe wind gusts with the
greatest chance between 6 pm and midnight et.

- repeated rounds of showers and storms could lead to some areas
experiencing hydrologic concerns.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 pm edt tue sep 15 2026

the potential exists for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms into thursday as a slow moving and eventually quasi
stationary boundary sets up across the area. this leads to an
overall low confidence forecast and a more initially conservative
approach, especially in later periods.

in the near term, scattered showers and storms have continued to
develop and move ne across far nw areas with some indications on
satellite development may calm down in this area as the frontal
boundary shifts northeast. low level moisture is increasing with an
axis of 500 to 1000 j/kg of mucape into sw areas ahead of a remnant
boundary/trough residing from central lower mi to near chicago and
then to quincy il. this will most likely be the focus for additional
showers and storms as we move through the remainder of the
afternoon into this evening with locations closer to lake mi
seeing activity first. the best shear will remain disconnected
from this boundary and best upper dynamics will push ne leaving
little for storms to work with in terms of organization. combine
that with decreasing, but not zero, instability after sunset
leads to low confidence on how long any convection survives as
well as risk for renewed development. while i suspect even
likely pops may be overdone into this evening, will leave them
in place during the most favorable window when a weak waves does
move in. although the marginal risk for severe continues (wind
threat), this may very well be more of a potential hydro issue
with time. initially, much of the area can take some rainfall,
but if any training occurs this could quickly change as pwats
over near 2" which could result on 1 to maybe 2 inch per hour
rates.

beyond tonight, consensus of surrounding offices was generally to
back away from any pops higher than chc given the lack of
consistency in the models, difficulty in timing specific waves and
location of the boundary. combination of soupy airmass (dewpoints
upper 60s to low 70s), generally uncapped atmosphere (assuming no
convective inhibition from other storm complexes) and pockets of
heating will lead to mainly diurnally driven development outside of
any mcvs or waves. one item to note is the sw to nw flow currently
in place will transition to more west east as the upper flow
flattens out. the chances for localized flooding may then increase
somewhat given the weak flow and risk for training. wpc keeps much
of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with wed
depicting slgt chc into parts of the area along the forecasted
location of the front.

forecast left untouched beyond thursday as the frontal boundary will
likely osculate across the area with 500 mb heights of 594 to 597
dm across the area which may be enough to push the boundary somewhat
further north. however, as we get to the weekend another trough will
slowly edge east and reach the western dakotas sunday with a series
of weak disturbances helping to displace the ridge south and
hopefully bring a break in the humidity. highest pops currently
reside sat/sat night and may be overdone (likely to some
categorical) but that far out no changes warranted.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 731 pm edt tue sep 15 2026

storms have initiated across the area with some tendency towards
producing storms across the northwest. additionally, models
have been struggling to maintain severity of storms beyond a 3z
time frame so would expect damaging wind potential to trail off,
but a flood potential could continue into the overnight. fwa
presents a little bit more uncertainty because there`s some
question about if storms ever do translate south. this could
happen if storms develop a cold pool across the north and shift
southeastward. think a prevailing or tempo group would serve the
north, but more of prob30 would illustrate the uncertainty at
fwa. perhaps there may be some better chances towards late
tonight into early wednesday of rain/storms shifting
southeastward for fwa. there is a shortwave that moves in
wednesday, but there`s also timing issues in the models and
blends of models just kind of provide an even chance across the
whole area. will just use another prob30 for both sites during
the rest of the day to highlight the chance. mvfr cigs appear to
have the best chance to be observed at least at some point in
the taf sites, but could see some drops into ifr with the
heavier rain especially at sbn. southwest winds veer northerly
overnight and then easterly by wednesday morning, but look to
stay below 10 kts sustained with minimal gusts away from any
storms.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
323
fxus63 kdtx 152341
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
741 pm edt tue sep 15 2026

.key messages...

- redevelopment of rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms will
be possible tonight and overnight, along or south of m59.

- there is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development
with this activity.

- rain and thunderstorm chances continue into the midweek period.

- a first look at the weekend indicates showery weather but mild
temperatures saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation...

latest trends show a convergence axis that stretches from arb into
northern indiana which has been the focus for thunderstorm
development southwest of the airspace. the thought is that these
storms will track northeast along the front and eventually reach the
airspace late tonight. time of arrival based on the cell currently
near kgsh is ~04z, moving into a plume of elevated instability as
sampled currently by the 00z kdtx sounding. elevated thunderstorm
potential thus lingers through the overnight hours, mainly across
the southern airspace with frontal forcing washing out overhead. the
remnant deformation axis establishes a low stratus deck early
wednesday morning. this cloud deck will be reinforced by light
northeast flow off of lake huron to support mvfr to low vfr cloud
for most of wednesday. mid-september sun angle may be enough to help
mix this out to a bkn or sct deck by afternoon, but the more robust
dry air struggles to move in before the end of the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...elevated thunderstorm potential increases late
this evening and lingers through early wednesday morning as cells
currently over northern indiana lift northeast along the weak
frontal zone. models and observational trends converge on a time
window between about 04-07z for the best chance of elevated
thunderstorms. heavy rainfall is the main concern, with a lower
threat for isolated wind gusts exceeding 35 knots.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this evening. high tonight and
wednesday.

* moderate in thunderstorms after 03z tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 pm edt tue sep 15 2026

discussion...

expansion of high pressure across the upper midwest will progress a
cold front into southern michigan where the boundary is then
expected to slow and stall out tonight. this will retain an area of
enhanced theta-e across southern michigan overnight, characterized
by pw values nearing 2" closer to the mi/oh border along with 850mb
dew points ranging between 12-14c. low level convergence and weak
shortwave impulses within this region of higher moisture will be the
focal point for renewed showers and possibly thunderstorms this
evening through at least tomorrow morning.

for tonight, expansion of renewed showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be more favorable around and south of m59. any arrival of
convection between 23z - 02z may be able to capitalize on a brief
increase in surface instability along the nose of enhanced theta-e
ahead of the cold front. this coupled with moderate low to mid level
lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear around 35 knots will bring some low
end chances for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. any
stronger development will be capable of producing localized stronger
wind gusts from a wet microburst. sr-hodographs also show a modest
streamwise component from 0-3 km, highlighting potential for some
better organization, but all said, poor buoyancy with unfavorable
timing of convective potential will be a major hindrance to any
robust convection. swody1 highlights a marginal risk for several
weather for this activity.

severe chances are then mitigated overnight once surface instability
wanes and conditions turn more elevated. zonal low to mid-level flow
will bring continuation of shower and storm potential overnight
through tomorrow afternoon. any repeated shower and thunderstorm
will have the low potential to bring localized flooding in flood
prone locations. see the hydrology section for additional details.

the frontal boundary will waver across southern michigan late
wednesday into thursday, providing additional chances for showers
and thunderstorms through the midweek period. some respite from rain
chances will be likely late thursday into friday as the southern
periphery of high pressure builds in across the great lakes, but
additional chances for showers and storms, possibly heavy rain, will
re-enter on saturday as storm complex derives from the plains
progresses into a stronger baroclinic zone. there is uncertainty
this far out regarding where any enhanced forcing will align, with
mid-range models highlighting anywhere from central michigan to
locations south into the ohio valley as potential zones for elevated
qpf.

marine...

an occluded low pressure system tracks into hudson bay this evening
with its southwesterly low-level jet easing out of the northern
great lakes with time. the core of the strongest winds has already
exited the area and the gale warning will be allowed to expire on
time at 4 pm. the system pushes a cold front across the area
overnight, causing southwesterly wind to quickly veer to north and
northeast by wednesday morning. ahead of the front this evening and
overnight, additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
be possible mainly for lake st. clair and western lake erie. an
isolated storm may be strong to severe with wind in excess of 34 kt
the main threat. high pressure passes to the north of the lakes on
wednesday, sustaining continued northeasterly flow of 10 to 15 kt. a
chance of showers and storms lingers around the southern great lakes
through wednesday and thursday as the cold front stalls in the
vicinity.

hydrology...

redevelopment and expansion of rain showers with some embedded
thunderstorms will be possible tonight and overnight, most favorable
along or south of m59. any thunderstorm development will be capable
of producing brief but heavy downpours. new rainfall totals from
this afternoon through tomorrow morning are expected to range between
a quarter-inch to a half-inch, however, any thunderstorm development
will likely produce highly localized totals that reach or exceed one
inch. this will bring a low chance for localized road flooding or
minor flooding of low-lying and urban area through tomorrow.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...am
marine.......tf
hydrology....am


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