Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
980
fxus61 kcle 260645
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
245 am edt mon oct 26 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast continues to remain unchanged with this forecast
package.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather will continue for much of the week with just
limited rain chances on thursday night and a better chance of
rain as early as saturday night. high temperatures will be in
the 70s at times this week, which is about 10-15 degrees above
normal for the last week of october.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure to the south of the region will keep moisture
away from the area as a weak cold front enters and washes out
overhead. weather will remain dry despite the front in the
region with 40s dew points in place. high temperatures today
will be in the 70s but will cool off a bit on tuesday behind the
front, especially areas closest to lake erie. high pressure
returns from the north for tuesday and wednesday, retaining dry
weather across the region. this system will push east of the
area by thursday, allowing a warm front through the area. high
temperatures on thursday will be the warmest for the week, up
to the mid 70s in some spots. a cold front will approach on
thursday night and may bring some rain to ne oh/nw pa, but the
best upper level support may be northeast of the area. high
pressure will return for friday and saturday with more dry
weather and 60s/70s. the next rain system will approach on
saturday night and may be more of a story for sunday.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions will continue across taf sites through the
period. southerly winds 3-5 knots early this morning will shift
westerly this afternoon and northerly this evening while
remaining at 8 knots or less.

outlook...primarily vfr expected through friday.

&&

.marine...
winds will start offshore this morning before a weak cold front
crosses the lake, shifting winds to the west then northwest at
10 kts or less. high pressure will be quick to build in from the
north tonight into tuesday, bringing northeast winds of 10 to 15
kts and waves of 1 to 3 ft. high pressure will move east on
tuesday, shifting winds to the east with time. the system will
sink south along the east coast and winds will return to the
south on wednesday. a warm front will cross the lake for
thursday and stronger southwest flow will return to the lake at
10 to 15 kts. another weak cold front will cross the lake on
thursday night and winds will shift to the northwest for friday.
overall, no marine headlines are expected on the lake at this
time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
214
fxus63 kiwx 260531
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
131 am edt mon oct 26 2026

.key messages...

- warm and dry conditions persist for much of this week with highs
in the 70s and lows around 50.

- there is a chance for light rain near lake michigan on
thursday with a better chance for more widespread rain early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 am edt mon oct 26 2026

a weak convergent boundary is noted on radar mosaic and surface obs
just to our northwest this morning. this front is associated with an
upper low crossing hudson bay and is becoming increasingly diffuse
as the parent forcing zips east and strong mid/upper ridge holds
over the ohio valley. no rain is expected locally, just a steady
stream of high clouds given incredibly dry and stable low levels.
our area does see a wind shift later today into tonight to nne and
eventually east. will have to keep an eye on fog potential given
return of lake erie contribution but ample high clouds may limit
development as is occurring now. highs today still reach low 70s
ahead of the front and flow veers back to a more southerly direction
by tue afternoon so highs on tue are still around 70 (slightly
cooler far ne).

s/sw flow and warm/moist air advection ramp up again tue night
through thu as another front take aims at the region. a more
southward track of the parent trough and a much better prefrontal
llj/theta-e surge suggest at least some chances for rain on thu. the
trough is still well to the north though and local areas remain
relatively dry and stable. best chances for some light rain will be
in our far nw thu afternoon. latest nbm even throws in a chance for
thunder in our nw but not expecting anything significant and areas
along/south of us-24 likely remain dry. highs do climb near 80 on
thu, which is the record (set in 2024).

upper ridge finally breaks down this weekend with potential for a
southern stream trough to tap into better moisture and bring our
best chances for rain in a while. still a ton of spread regarding
the timing and evolution though. halloween still looks mostly dry
but nbm is maintaining some slight chance pops. better chances
arrive sunday into monday but confidence on timing and amounts
couldn`t be much lower.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 130 am edt mon oct 26 2026

a large scale upper trough working across south central canada
is allowing a weak cold front to sag south across the great
lakes region. this front is expected to be shallow in nature as
far south as northern indiana, with more aggressive southern
push limited by the fact the forcing with the upper wave will
already be waning later this morning. this front is expected to
lose its integrity today but should provide a weak northerly sfc
wind component at ksbn this afternoon. a narrow zone of post-
frontal mvfr low clouds may accompany this front, but the
greater potential of this appears to be across west central
lower mi into northeast illinois. vfr conditions should hold
through this period, with fog potential looking significantly
lower than previous few nights.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
219
fxus63 kdtx 260748
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
348 am edt mon oct 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather continues today through thursday.

- temperatures remain at or slightly above normal today and tuesday,
despite a shallow cold front sagging southward across the region.

- a low chance of fog or low clouds across the thumb and tri-cities
tonight and tuesday morning.

- a renewed warming trend begins wednesday and thursday as high
temperatures return to the 70s.

- the next chance for measurable rainfall holds off until thursday
night and friday along the next weak cold front.

&&

.discussion...

a weakly forced cold front lean on moisture is the weather highlight
for se mi today. the initial wind shift passes through the tri
cities and northern thumb leading up to sunrise while any remaining
pockets of rain continue dissipating. the front lacks moisture and
is just too far south of the ontario mid level trough and upper jet
to sustain precipitation, however clouds are plentiful along and
behind the surface boundary. this helps sharpen an already
respectable boundary layer temperature gradient, but which takes
nearly the entire day to reach the ohio border. the weak and slow
low level cold advection allows another day of above normal high
temperatures south of i-69, and especially from metro detroit to the
ohio border where highs around 70 are once again in reach. boundary
layer cold advection then gains traction tonight as the surface
front settles into the ohio valley and high pressure slides across
northern ontario to strengthen ne flow into the central great lakes.
low to mid level frontal clouds linger overhead with the chance for
a stratocu component inland from lake huron. guidance temperatures
still only drop to normal lows in the upper 30s tri cities and thumb
to mid 40s metro detroit southward by sunrise.

tuesday ends up being cooler compared to recent days, however still
at or slightly above normal. mid level clouds hold through the day
within the mid levels of the frontal zone stalled overhead while the
surface boundary remains located across the ohio valley. the clouds
combine with steady ne wind into lower mi to produce high
temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. broad low pressure
developing from the central plains into central canada then begins a
new warming trend across the midwest which spreads into the great
lakes wednesday. there are additional clouds but still not much sign
of rain in the warm advection pattern among the 26/00z models,
however guidance temperatures quickly return to around 70 wednesday
afternoon and lower to mid 70s thursday. records are in the upper
70s for thursday/29th as recently as 2024.

the larger scale upper air pattern maintains a split flow in the
northern stream jet during the late week which directs surface low
tracks from the sw states into central canada and then eastward.
this keeps the associated cold fronts more benign upon reaching
lower mi with the next one projected for thursday night into friday.
it presents the next chance of rain but not much of a temperature
drop by friday. nbm guidance high temperatures hold in the mid to
upper 60s through the weekend, ahead of these low tracks and in sw
flow off high pressure pinned near the mid atlantic coast.

&&

.marine...

a dry cold frontal passage will clear into the eastern great lakes
this morning resulting northerly post-frontal flow. the surface
pressure gradient should sufficiently constrict for an uptick in
winds and waves heading into the evening hours. a brief period of
occasional wave heights above 5 feet may develop for outer bay and
portions of the southern lake huron shoreline, where fetch is
maximized. a short-fused small craft advisory may still be needed
this evening. high pressure then translates southeastward across
ontario on tuesday, before settling over new england by wednesday.
in response, local winds will veer easterly. several additional
waves of low pressure are expected to track northeastward from the
plains through the upper midwest during the the mid-late week time-
frame, but winds and waves largely hold below headline criteria.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1146 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

aviation...

a weak cold front remains on pace to gradually sag across the region
late tonight and monday. existing pre-frontal low level southwest
gradient combined with renewed increase in cirrus will provide a
notably less favorable overall environment for fog formation during
the early hours. despite this, forecast leans into persistence with
expectation for at least some potential mainly across the detroit
corridor as winds lighten and thickening cloud holds off a bit later
into the night. thicker mid cloud to mark the early day period with
the frontal passage, with a wind shift to northerly affording some
saturation within the lower layers and an associated reduction in
ceiling height with time through the time. confidence in cigs below
vfr remains low given the general retention of drier conditions
below 3000 ft.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm monday morning.

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft monday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.