Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
865
fxus61 kcle 280741
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
341 am edt sat mar 28 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing confidence in a window of showers and
thunderstorms on tuesday night into wednesday morning with a
cold front.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow will move across the area early this morning with no
impacts expected. temperatures will remain below normal through
tonight.

2) an unsettled weather pattern is expected next week with above
normal temperatures and periodic rain and storm chances. the best
window for storms appears to be on tuesday night. there is also a
higher confidence window for rain on thursday into thursday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a shortwave is moving through the great lakes region early this
morning and some snow is featured over michigan with this
feature. snow will slide southeast with the upper level wave,
but the snow is entering a drier atmosphere and only some minor
snow showers may make it to the american side of lake erie
during the pre-dawn hours. have maintained a slight chance pop
for snow. behind the shortwave, dry weather is expected with
high pressure across the region. temperatures will remain cool
with highs in the 30s and 40s today and 20s and 30s tonight.

key message 2...
temperatures will ramp up on sunday and monday with a pair of
warm fronts moving through the region, allowing for 50s on
sunday and 60s/70s on monday and tuesday. there is lowering
confidence on rain chances on monday and the first half of
tuesday in the warm sector. some isentropic lift with the
warmer, moist air could pop some showers and storms, especially
if the warm front doesn`t clear lake erie. however, any
precipitation would be lower in coverage.

for tuesday night into wednesday, a cold front will cross the
region and should allow for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. therefore, will have a refined window
of higher pops and thunder chances in the forecast. while early
for specifics, there could be some excitement with convection on
tuesday night, if a 50 kt low level jet can be realized into the
area ahead of the cold front. something to stay tuned for...

there should be a reprieve in rain chances on wednesday behind
the cold front with temperatures returning toward normal in the
50s. a low pressure system will move through the ohio valley on
thursday and allow for warmer temperatures and another window
for widespread rain. there are still some timing differences
among model guidance and it is possible that this system slows
into thursday night or even friday with the rain.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
a trough crossing the region through this morning will bring
occasional broken vfr ceilings along with a few flurries or snow
showers. some snow showers may bring brief visibility or ceiling
restrictions to mvfr, with vfr generally prevailing otherwise.
this trough exits later this morning with high pressure building
in this afternoon, allowing for the flurry/snow shower potential
to end and clearing out the skies. generally northwest winds at
5-10kt through this morning shift southwest this afternoon,
shifting closer to south tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible starting on monday with rain
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
a re-enforcing trough is crossing the lake early this morning,
with a brief push of around 15kt winds expected behind it. after
a brief lull, winds shift southwest this afternoon and evening
and again increase to 10-15kt, perhaps a bit stronger across the
eastern basin for a few hours early this evening. waves will be
slightly elevated in the 1 to 3 foot range today. winds remain
south-southwest at 15kt or less through monday, leading to
relatively good marine conditions on the lake. a strong cold
front approaches monday night and tuesday from the northwest,
crossing the lake tuesday night. south-southwest winds will
increase to 15-25kt ahead of the front, flipping northwesterly
behind it. small craft advisories will likely be needed ahead of
and with that cold front. unsettled marine conditions may
quickly return midweek and beyond in an active pattern.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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629
fxus63 kiwx 280722
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
322 am edt sat mar 28 2026

.key messages...

- steadily increasing temperatures over the next few days.
tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the
mid to upper 70s.

- rain and storm chances monday night through early wednesday.
highest chances, including an opportunity for strong to
severe storms, will be tuesday evening (60-80%).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 321 am edt sat mar 28 2026

an expansive high pressure system is centered over plains, with dry
conditions continuing across much of the midwest and the
central conus. clear skies and light winds have allowed for
plenty of radiational cooling to take place overnight with
temperatures down in the 20s this morning. temperatures will
remain slightly cooler than normal this afternoon with highs
only in the low to mid 40s. with building surface high pressure
and upper level ridging aloft moving into the great lakes,
expect conditions to remain dry through the day on monday.

our attention then turns to the active weather pattern ahead this
week with increasingly mild temperatures and several opportunities
for rainfall. prevailing southerly winds over the next several days
will allow for temperatures to steadily warm. strong waa peaks on
tuesday with highs in the 70s, although locations south of us 24 may
reach 80 degrees. moisture return will be gradual, but by tuesday,
dewpoints should be in the upper 50s to maybe even low 60s across
the area. chances for rain arrive monday night as a warm front lifts
north across northern indiana and a surface low tracks across the
midwest into the upper great lakes; with a breezy and warm tuesday
ahead, we are monitoring potential for storms that could be strong
to severe with the system`s attendant cold front on tuesday evening
into early wednesday. destabilization and thunderstorm development
should occur sometime tuesday afternoon/evening within the warm
sector. models are also coming into better agreement that the low
level jet will ramp up tuesday evening. spc had mentioned the lake
michigan vicinity in their day 4-8 discussion yesterday as being a
favorable area for strong to severe storms...looking at model
guidance now, i would not be surprised if our area is included in a
day 4 outlook later this morning as models come to a decent
consensus. with the right entrance of the upper level jet overhead
and a positively tilted 500 mb trough, the synoptic environment
is decently favorable. however, there are a lot of uncertainties
as to whether the front will come through during a diurnally
favorable timeframe, what storm mode may be, and how much
instability and moisture there will be. like with the past few
march severe weather events we have had, this may be another
high shear, low cape setup.

temperatures crash on the backside of the front on wednesday, with
highs likely being reached for the day around midnight.
temperatures will then be in the 40s during the day wednesday.
mild air then gradually returns as temperatures moderate into
next week. the active weather pattern continues with additional
chances for rain on thursday and saturday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 145 am edt sat mar 28 2026

vfr conditions are expected through the period at both terminals
with the ceilings around 7000ft slowly diminishing through the
night. light w-nw winds gradually drop to the s-sw by late
morning/early afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
606
fxus63 kdtx 280750
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
350 am edt sat mar 28 2026

.key messages...

- steady warming trend this weekend into early next week with dry
conditions. lower 70s will be possible by tuesday.

- shower chances arrive by monday night with showers and
thunderstorms then likely throughout much of the day tuesday. a
couple stronger storms could be possible.

- cooler midweek with slightly below average temperatures favored.

&&

.discussion...

cold start to the morning following last night`s shortwave passage
and the arrival of the core of thermal troughing. surface high
pressure tracks across the ohio valley today with se mi residing
under its northern edge. northwesterly winds veer to the southwest
by afternoon as the ridge axis shifts to our east gradually shunting
thermal troughing to ontario. result today is only a modest
recovery in temperatures as highs return to the lower 40s. warm air
advection continues into the early week as central conus upper
riding expands over the great lakes supporting warmer conditions
each day with highs sunday firmly in the 50s and 60s by monday.

a pacific northwest originating mid-upper shortwave ejects out of
the northern rockies into the northern plains spurring cyclogensis
over the upper midwest monday night. strengthening resultant warm
advection into southern lower mi late monday night-tuesday morning
ushers in upper 60s to mid 70s as 850mb temps reach 12-14c. model
trends have been for lesser shower coverage, at least in the south,
monday night with main ascent tied to the remnant stalled frontal
boundary/baroclinic zone over northern lower mi as it generates a
strong theta-e gradient with the arrival of the milder/moister
airmass. se mi resides within the warm sector of this system
throughout the day tuesday with periodic showers and thunderstorms
likely. whether some of these storms could become severe is
something to watch as longer range models generally all suggest at
least several hundred j/kg of mlcape (particularly in the south) and
mid-level lapse rates near 7c/km developing by afternoon. while
shear profiles aren`t quite in the same level of agreement, model
solutions range from 25-40kts which would be enough for organized
convection, to a varying degree, for any updrafts that occur.
surface cold front progged to cross southern lower mi latter half of
the evening into the first part of tuesday night enhancing coverage
of showers across the region as well as some additional scattered
embedded thundestorms.

parent upper troughing undergoes deamplification wednesday as quasi-
zonal upper flow develops over the great lakes. this stalls out the
surface cold front somewhere over the northern ohio valley and
offers only a glancing shot of cold advection for the local area as
the core of the airmass confined to canada/northern great lakes.
northerly flow lake huron likely keeps the thumb quite cool the 30s
to low 40s but the rest of the region currently looks able to see
highs only slightly below normal, ranging mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.marine...

a small craft advisory is in effect from outer bay to harbor beach
for occasional waves to 7 feet this morning, but the modest post-
cold frontal northwest flow mainly keeps higher waves over the open
waters of lake huron. a few additional flurries are possible this
morning. winds then weaken and back southwesterly through the rest
of the daylight period. winds/waves should remain in-check with dry
weather sunday and monday as high pressure builds into the region.
an extended window for showers and thunderstorms exists late monday
through tuesday. stronger prevailing winds are expected tuesday with
the arrival of a low pressure system, although widespread gale-froce
gusts are unlikely, at this time.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1152 pm edt fri mar 27 2026

aviation...

narrow region of light snow attendant to an inbound mid level wave
will work into southeast michigan over the next several hours. while
a gradual decline in coverage and intensity remains possible with
time, forecast will continue to highlight a brief one to two hour
window for some reduction of both ceiling height and visibility
between now and 08z. clearing skies in the wake as northwest wind
picks up in speed with some gustiness into the morning period. vfr
conditions prevail saturday within a more limited coverage of
diurnal cu and some thickening high based cloud in the afternoon.
northwest winds backing to southwesterly thru the day as high
pressure builds in from the west.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less during the early morning
hours. low after 09z.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.