Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
102
fxus61 kcle 251907
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
307 pm edt thu jun 25 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in severe weather east of i-71 has increased for this
afternoon, with an spc slight risk expected. the probability for
areawide rainfall and qpf > 1" has increased friday evening into
friday night. confidence is increasing in a significant and long
duration heat wave next week, with heat indices likely near or
exceeding 100 degrees for multiple days.

&&

.key messages...
1) there is a chance for a few strong to severe storms east of i-71
between 3 and 7 pm today.

2) areawide rain expected friday afternoon through friday night.
heavy rain is possible south of us-30.

2) significant heat and humidity builds next week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees, especially in northwest
ohio.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
great lakes region (noted on water vapor satellite imagery), with
its attendant surface low into west-central lower michigan.

morning convection still lingers near youngstown area (as of ~18z)
but should exit shortly. this morning`s convection left behind
a slightly worked over environment, but broad southwest flow
should yield quick recovery of the atmosphere. latest
mesoanalysis reveals pooling of low-level moisture and surface
convergence along and in the vicinity of the i-71 corridor,
which is confirmed by a building cumulus field on satellite,
especially the area south of mansfield. this is likely where we
see convective initiation over the next hour or two (by 4 pm).
convection will initially begin as a broken line and shear
vector angled around 45 degree to the forcing mechanism (pre-
frontal trough) may actually favor keeping things
clustered/multicellular initially instead of growing upscale
quickly. we are also seeing additional convection developing
farther west near the i-75 corridor and that may also continue
to develop further.

the combination of strong deep-layer shear and modest instability
expected will favor strong to severe thunderstorms with this cluster
of storms. primary weather hazard will be strong to damaging winds
within the strongest storms, but large hail and a few tornado are
also possible, especially if storm mode can remain a bit more
discrete.

key message 2...
the cold front swings through tonight, stalling just south of
the forecast area tonight. low pressure that develops over the
southern great plains and mid-mississippi valley moves east-
northeast along this boundary and across ohio friday night into
saturday morning. overall trends in synoptic features has
trended just a bit farther north, with this forecast package
increasing the pop and qpf forecast, with a slightly greater
risk of heavy rain and localized flooding for areas south of
us-30. we`ll have to monitor trends in the system because a
further northward trend could yield greater impacts.

key message 3...
an upper-level ridge builds into the eastern conus next week as
ensembles key in on location and strength of this feature. the
594 dam 500mb heights will be centered over the ohio valley, but
500mb heights will actually be most anomalous over lower great
lakes. this will result in significant build up of heat and
humidity through all of next week (at least monday-friday).
there is high confidence in most of the area reaching multiple
days of temperatures > 90 and heat indices > 100, with >50%
chance of temperatures > 95 and heat indices > 105 especially
along and west of i-71 (particularly the toledo-findlay area).

sometimes confidence is a bit lower due to thunderstorm chances
but with the positioning of the upper-level ridge, it`s
becoming less and less likely that storms develop at least
through wednesday.

one thing to point out is that the impacts of heat tend to
increase with duration. heat impacts will likely be at their
great wednesday onward as we see consecutive days of extreme
heat and very little relief overnight (with lows in the low to
mid 70s).

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
mainly vfr across the taf sites this afternoon, with
deterioration to mvfr and ifr possible in showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front. already seeing some convection developing just west of
the region across indiana, though could also see another area
develop near the i-71 corridor in the next couple of hours. the
highest confidence for direct shower and thunderstorm impacts is
at mfd/cak/yng where tempo groups currently reside. some
thunderstorms could be strong to severe with wind gusts in the
40 to 45-knot range in addition to quarter-size hail.

elsewhere, confidence in direct tsra impacts are lower, so went
with a brief window of vcts at this time. following the shower
and thunderstorm threat later this evening and overnight, some
patchy fog may develop, particularly east of the i-71 corridor
where rain is likely to be most widespread, though confidence
remains on the lower end.

winds are generally favoring a west to southwest direction this
afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. winds will become mainly light and
less than 5 knots overnight and into friday. a lake breeze is
expected to develop at cle/eri late friday morning with north to
northwest winds of around 8 knots.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms friday night into saturday.

&&

.marine...
main concern into this evening will be the threat for some stronger
wind gusts associated with thunderstorms. otherwise, generally quiet
marine conditions are expected through the weekend and into early
next week, though we will need to monitor wind trends on saturday as
a low pressure system slides east through the ohio valley. at this
point, not anticipating northeast winds to exceed 15 knots.
following saturday, mainly light east to southeast flow around 10
knots is expected through monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
403
fxus63 kiwx 252218
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 pm edt thu jun 25 2026

.key messages...

- rain arrives late friday morning through friday night,
heaviest along and south of the us 24 corridor.

- becoming hot and humid next week with highs in the 90s and
heat indicies near 100 as early as monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 114 pm edt thu jun 25 2026

a series of disturbances and associated sfc lows will impact the
area over the next 24 to 36 hours before we shift to an overall
drier and much warmer period late this weekend and especially next
week.

an area of low pressure is located in nw lower mi with a cold front
(more of a dewpoint front and wind shift) moving through our far nw
portions of the area. a line of cu is apparent on vis satellite and
these could increase in coverage and eventually bring a chance for
some widely scattered showers or storms as it moves se through the
remainder of the afternoon. in addition, a stray shower or storm
could develop well ahead of the front where some agitated cu has
been located near a leftover boundary (mainly se of i-69). no severe
weather is expected, but some brief heavy rain and maybe locally
gusty winds cannot be ruled out. in the wake of the front, less
humid conditions return briefly with the front temporarily stalling
to our south before another upper level wave allows the front to
push back north. still some variance in models on how far north an
area of overrunning rain/rainshowers (isolated thunder) gets as the
main sfc low tracks across central in. highest pops remain related
to locations south of us 30 and moreso us-24 with rainfall amounts
of one half to 1" possible far south then tapering quickly to the
north. any severe threat will remain near or south of the low track,
so we should be in the clear for this system.

after friday night, the semi zonal upper level flow will transition
to massive ridging aloft and an eventual 592 to 596 dm upper level
high being centered over the area by next week. all signs still
point towards a rather dramatic warm up (much more summer like)
starting as early as monday, but moreso tuesday into thursday with
highs in the 90s and heat indices near or above 100 degrees. heat
headlines will be likely at some point next week. while the likihood
of convection is minimal, given the unstable environment, a stray
afternoon/evening shower or storm is possible and is depicted by the
spurious pops next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 618 pm edt thu jun 25 2026

vfr/dry conditions expected tonight into friday morning before
the northern fringes of a convectively aided low pressure system
clips kfwa with rain and mvfr conditions by friday afternoon/evening.
opted for a prob30 group at ksbn given much lower confidence in
restrictions and rain reaching this far north.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
276
fxus63 kdtx 252322
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
722 pm edt thu jun 25 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry friday with a chance for showers near the ohio border.
then a warming trend through the weekend.

- very hot and humid conditions are likely next week as heat indices
could exceed 100f, especially tues into the late week period.
potential exists for thunderstorms during this time as well.

&&

.aviation...

scattered convection is in the process of winding down this evening
with diurnal cu likewise dissipating. vfr skies hold through the
first half of the night before ongoing cold advection is expected to
support an increase in mvfr cloud cover late tonight. there has been
some model signal for area of mist/fog to develop early friday
morning with `best` chances over the northern terminals, so have
opted to include a vsby reduction to entry level mvfr from ptk
north. ceilings gradually lift over the course of the day friday
with scattering possible by evening if a passing low over the ohio
valley holds south of the state line.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast through friday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft early tonight, high late
tonight through friday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 313 pm edt thu jun 25 2026

discussion...

mid-upper troughing will be over the region today as a surface low
pressure system migrates slowly across the central great lakes.
despite more dry air that has filtered into the region, there will
be showers and thunderstorm potential for the remainder of the
afternoon until about 9-10 pm this evening. the environment will
become more supportive of better organization through this afternoon
compared to yesterday evening and last night. mean surface cape
across se mi per the href tops 1000 j/kg with areas across the tri-
cities and thumb approaching 2000 j/kg. lapse rates have steepened
to 6-7 c/km across the area as well. morning model suite still shows
some displacement of better 0-6 km bulk shear of 30 kts or greater
to south of the south of m-59 associated with the stronger 850 mb
flow. low level shear over the area will be very weak and well below
20 knots for most southeast mi. mid-level ascent atop the cold
frontal zone and low pressure track will focus higher coverage of
convection roughly across the tri-cities to port huron corridor and
points north. tall skinny cape profiles, weaker shear, with moderate
instability will offer a marginal risk for severe weather as
stronger isolated updrafts will be capable of producing strong to
severe downburst winds. secondary threat will be a hail if any
updrafts can maintain a longer duration organized updraft along with
some heavy downpours given the very slow storm motion. limiting
factor for heavy rain with the slow storm motion will be the lack of
deeper moisture. spc day 1 convective outlook maintains a similar
area for the marginal risk of severe weather laid across the tri-
cities/thumb and to the southeast into northern macomb and st clair
county. the clouds have cleared across the i-94/i-96 corridors,
which will pave the way for a run at 80 degrees across southern
portions of the cwa through this afternoons peak heating.

the system`s cold front will clear by this evening with high
pressure and subsidence to follow resulting in a largely pop free
forecast for the overnight period beyond 03z. a low amplitude will be
tracking across the ohio valley during the day tomorrow. most models
have the northern periphery of the precipitation grazing southern
michigan areas south of i-94. the nam is the outlier with the latest
12z solution showing a trend to a further north intrusion of the
precipitation. guidance has such trended such with 30% pop extending
up to the m-59 corridor. most other hi-res models keep it south, so
expect that most of the area should remain dry friday aided by the
local e-ne flow.

the main storyline in the extended will be the potential for extreme
heat starting monday through mid-week and potentially into the late
week as a high amplitude ridge develops and exhibits some staying
power over the central and eastern us. mean high temps on long
range/ai outputs are forecasting an impressive mid-upper 90s
scenario, especially during the tues-thurs period. this is when a
500 mb geopotential height nearing 600 dam centers of the ohio and
mid mississippi river valleys. within this heat dome will be high
humidity with dewpoints exceeding 70 degrees, resulting in heat
index values that should easily exceed 100 degrees for several
afternoons next week in this set up and likely heat headlines. there
again will be some convective potential during this time, which
could affect some of the daily highs and associated heat indices. it
will be monitored for both timing and locations in later forecasts.

marine...

a low pressure system over central lower mi this afternoon will
drift across southern lake huron this evening. scattered
thunderstorms have developed and will continue through the evening
hours under the low. weak pressure gradient is keeping wind gusts
mainly below 15 knots but could get a briefly stronger gust in the
vicinity of a thunderstorm. high pressure is already building into
the western lakes and will encompass most of the region by friday
morning. the high holds over most of the area through the weekend
but there is a low looking to clip the southern great lakes friday
afternoon and evening. the rain shield would most likely impact
lakes erie and st clair. once the high builds back across the region
friday night it will bring warmer and calmer weather along with it.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...aa
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.