Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
956
fxus61 kcle 231134
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
634 am est mon feb 23 2026

.what has changed...
have raised snow amounts in southeastern cuyahoga and northern
geauga counties to have isolated 6-7" totals for the ongoing
lake enhanced snow event. there is increasing potential for
additional winter weather headlines for tuesday night into
wednesday for nw pa with a clipper system.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake enhanced snow will continue through tonight across the
region. the greatest snow amounts and potential travel impacts
will be from north central ohio to northwest pa, mainly in the
higher elevations south and east of cleveland and southeast of
erie.

2) a clipper system will bring another round of snow to the area
on tuesday night into wednesday. the highest snow amounts and
possible travel impacts will be in northwest pa. another round
of winter weather advisories may be needed.

3) the local area will be on the cold side of a strong low
pressure system moving through the ohio valley on thursday. this
system will bring widespread accumulating snowfall that could
have more travel impacts. while there is increasing confidence
in snow as the precipitation type, the low track remains in
question, which will have implications on how much snow will be
expected.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper trough over the eastern united states is supporting a
large low pressure system and blizzard up the east coast.
locally, this system is more tame allowing for persistent snow
showers across the region that has so far produced 1 to 3 inches
of snow over the last 24 hours. some upslope and lake
enhancement will accelerate this morning and allow for an
additional 2 to 5 inches of snow with higher in nw pa. some of
the 36-to-48 hour snow totals will start to become problematic
in the range of 3 to 6 inches in winter weather advisory areas
and over 6 inches in the higher hills of erie county, pa. there
was some brief consideration for an upgrade to a winter storm
warning for cuyahoga and geauga counties, as some isolated
totals in the hills of northern geauga and eastern and southern
cuyahoga could creep over the 6 inch mark. however, the advisory
messaging of a potentially messy morning commute today has been
out there and the impacts of this longer duration event may not
limp higher into the warning category, so have opted to stay
put with the current suite of winter headlines for the area.

key message 2...
a clipper system will dive southeast across the great lakes on
tuesday night into wednesday. this system will bring additional
snow to the forecast area with the highest snow expected out
east in nw pa. current forecast totals for pa will be in the
range of 2 to 4 inches and there is potential for another set of
winter weather advisories to be issued. the one caveat for this
system will be the amount of warm air advecting into the region.
overall, the warm nose of temperatures above freezing aloft will
likely fall just short of the local forecast area, allowing for
only snow. however, these warmer temperatures will cut snow
ratios considerably and allow for less efficient snowfall. if
these warmer temperatures trend further north, then advisories
may be off the table for nw pa.

key message 3...
there has been a persistent signal for a low pressure system to
move through the ohio valley on thursday with a broader upper
trough moving through the central and eastern united states. the
trends over the last couple of model cycles have been that the
local area will be on the colder side of this system and any
precipitation is favoring snow at this time. while p-type
consensus is building, there are still issues with the eventual
track of the surface low with overall trends keeping this system
fairly far south - to the point where the forecast area could
end up staying dry with precipitation staying south, closer to
the low path. this system will need to be monitored over the
next couple of days, as there is potential for widespread
accumulating snowfall and a non-zero chance for impacts and
winter headlines.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
mvfr/ifr conditions are expected in lake-enhanced snow and
clouds through the majority of the taf period. periodic lifr
conditions are possible in pockets of moderate snow this
morning, best chance at kcle/keri. snowfall rates should
gradually diminish this afternoon into this evening, allowing
conditions to improve to at least mvfr. vfr conditions will
likely develop at ktol/kfdy by late afternoon or early evening
with vfr spreading to kmfd tonight.

northwest winds to 12 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to
periodically 30 knots are expected during the day today. winds
will diminish to 8 to 14 knots this evening before diminishing
to 10 knots or less at around 06z tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr in snow and low clouds expected tuesday night
into early wednesday morning. non-vfr may return again on
thursday as another system moves through the region.

&&

.marine...
breezy northwest winds in response to deep low pressure off the
new england coast are expected today. the strongest winds of 20
to 25 and possibly as high as 30 knots are expected from
roughly east of the islands to conneaut with slightly lighter
winds to 15 to 25 knots expected west and east. while small
craft advisories remain suspended due to ice on lake erie, waves
in ice free areas in the central basin may build as high as 3
to 6 feet this afternoon into early this evening. the northwest
winds will likely cause ice in the open waters to shift towards
the lakeshore. northwest winds will diminish this evening with
sustained winds to about 10 to 15 knots expected by late
tonight. offshore flow will develop and deepen on tuesday with
west/southwest winds to 20 to 25 knots expected tuesday night
through wednesday. west winds will once again diminish to 10 to
15 knots wednesday night before becoming variable by late week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz009-
019.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est tuesday for ohz010>014-
020-021-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 am est tuesday for paz001-003.
winter storm warning until 7 am est tuesday for paz002.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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311
fxus63 kiwx 231147
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
647 am est mon feb 23 2026

.key messages...

- winter weather advisories remain in effect for lake effect
snow for portions of northwest and north central indiana along
with southwest lower michigan through 1 pm est today.

- additional lake effect snow accumulations through monday
afternoon of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. impacts for this mornings commute are likely.

- rain and snow chances return for wednesday and thursday but
confidence in exact details such as precip amounts and types
remain low. temperatures trend warmer later in the work week
behind this system.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 304 am est mon feb 23 2026

les continues this morning however a more multi-band mode has
since became a single band of moderate snowfall over eastern
berrien mi, and st. joseph, in counties as of 3 am est. this
band looks to slowly pivot further westward through the morning
period and a band of light snow will extend even further south
beyond the areas of moderate lake effect snowfall. 1 to 3 inches
of additional snowfall is expected within the main band of
moderate intensity snowfall. northerly winds will also remain
elevated through this afternoon and continue to create patches
of blowing or drifting of fallen snow with gusts up to 30 mph
especially for areas near lake michigan. les will continue to
gradually diminish through this afternoon as the main energy
associated with the trough pushes south and eastward. the winter
weather advisory for berrien and cass counties in mi and la
porte, st. joseph, marshall, and starke counties in in will
remain in effect through 1 pm est today. some light lake effect
snowfall may continue for a short time after the conclusion of
the advisory but additional accumulations will be light. with
the cold northerly flow in place and recent snowfall high
temperatures today will remain in the mid 20s to lower 30s. low
temperatures overnight will be cold and drop into the mid to
upper teens however to complicate matters some continued lake
effect clouds over the western half of the cwa may keep
temperatures slightly warmer than further east where less clouds
will be in place.

tuesday temperatures will moderate slightly with shortwave
ridging pushing in over the region. high temperatures will get
into the mid to upper 30s with a few locations seeing low 40s
however temperatures will remain somewhat muted with the
snowfall now in place. another trough skirts just to the north
of the area tuesday afternoon into wednesday with initially some
light snow showers mainly north of us-20 and then with some
light rain beginning to mix in and pushing further
south and eastward tuesday evening. lows wednesday morning will
drop into the mid to upper 20s which should allow for any light
rain mixing in to return to light snow showers. highs for
wednesday will range from the low 30s to upper 30s with a few
locations in our far southern parts of the cwa getting into the
low 40s. there still is a large amount of uncertainty in the
wednesday through thursday time period with guidance wavering
the last couple of nights with the exact evolution of the
complicated upper level pattern and how/if a disturbance from
the pacific northwest slips southeastward into the central conus
by thursday. it still appears a trough does push into the region
late wednesday night into thursday with the rain/snow line near
the southern parts of the cwa however any deviation or changes
as we get closer to the mid-week could create fairly large
changes to the amount/type of precipitation expected.

as previous discussions have addressed a zonal pattern aloft
will develop over most of the central conus and warming
temperatures for friday/saturday with high temperatures in the
mid 40s to low 50s still expected. by sunday, another trough
approaches the region and will see a return to near normal high
temperatures for sunday/monday with highs in the mid and upper
30s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 636 am est mon feb 23 2026

for ksbn, predominantly mvfr/ifr conditions to start the period,
with potential for lifr (or less) with the lake effect band
about to move into the terminal. the band has primarily lingered
between ksbn/kekm overnight-so uncertainty as to how low the
ceilings/visibilities are within it-however when it crossed kbeh
this morning it dropped to 1/4sm with 700ft ceilings. have a
tempo to account for drop to around 1/2sm for now, likely moving
out by 15z. after this, expect fluctuations between high end-
mvfr and vfr conditions with ceilings of 2500-5000ft. n-nw winds
gusting to around 25 knots are possible through the afternoon
before diminishing overnight.

at kfwa, there could be a brief period this morning of snow/mvfr
visibilities associated with the passing trough (have tempo for
this). otherwise, expect ceilings to fluctuate between mvfr/vfr
conditions through the period. nw winds gusting to around 25
knots are possible through the afternoon before shifting west
and diminishing overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est /noon cst/ this
afternoon for inz012-014-103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
miz078-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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009
fxus63 kdtx 231026
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
526 am est mon feb 23 2026

.key messages...

- colder conditions today and tonight. minimum wind chill
early tuesday morning ranging from 0 to 5 degrees.

- accumulating snow late tuesday and tuesday night. snow totals
ranging from one half to 2 inches, with highest amounts across the
saginaw valley and northern thumb.

- seasonable temperatures through the midweek period, with the next
chance of snow late wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.aviation...

improvements expected across the terminals today as stubborn low
pressure to the east fully dislodges, allowing high pressure from
the plains to eventually build in. snowfall continues to taper off
this morning, generally holding just east of the taf sites, thus
snowfall mentions have been changed to vfr showers to account for
lingering flurries. main forecast consideration is focused on
ceiling trends which are currently stalled in the mvfr range.
eventually, drier air fills in this evening behind a passing arctic
front which paves the way for cloud bases to rise and potentially
scatter out which translates to vfr conditions overnight. modest
winds hold from nnw near 15 knots today with gusts around 25 knots.
winds trend lower overnight, backing westerly, and eventually
southwest into tuesday morning.

for dtw...flurries through the morning hours, turning drier by
midday. mvfr ceilings expected to hold until late evening with
modest winds from 320 degrees, gusting to 25 knots.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning, then moderate
through this evening.

* high for precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am est mon feb 23 2026

discussion...

broad mid level circulation and associated large scale forced ascent
finally vacates toward the east coast today. some lingering pockets
of light snow showers will exist yet this morning as this process
unfolds and within the background of increasing cold air advection
as flow deepens out of the north. additional accumulation remains
minor and focused primarily across the thumb region as weak lake
moisture flux continues to contribute to better moisture quality.
otherwise, expansive stratus still featuring a narrowing moist layer
saturated with respect to ice and parked within the dgz will maintain
intermittent flurries today. the inbound polar airmass yields the
coldest daylight conditions this work week. highs broadly distributed
in the 20s, with wind chill ranging from 5 to 15 degrees. forecast
will highlight a window for some pockets of open sky tonight, as
increasing subsidence works to lower the inversion. regardless,
expectation for low temperatures to bottom out in the single digits
to lower teens most locations tuesday morning.

clipper system set to arrive late tuesday into tuesday night.
building upper heights in conjunction within emerging low level
southerly flow elicits a solid pattern of warm air advection
tuesday. this effectively lifts most locations back toward the
freezing mark by late in the day. narrow axis of greater moist
isentropic ascent flanking the lead edge of inbound wave will sweep
through tuesday afternoon. mixed signal yet on whether moisture
quality proves adequate to generate a meaningful response in terms
of snow production or if the ambient profile is too dry. forecast
simply outlines a chance for snow prior to 00z, greater probability
with northward extent. notably stronger ascent then arrives 00z-06z
early tuesday night as the southern extent of the main height fall
center anchors along the left exit region of a 150 knot upper jet.
greater forcing again edged higher with northward extent, lending to
a general gradient in projected qpf from .10" north to under .05"
south. this translates into accumulation potential ranging from a
couple inches north of m-46 to half inch or less for parts of metro
detroit on southward. chance of light snow showers into wednesday as
cold air advection briefly grips the region.

energetic central pacific upper jet stream will direct another
progressive, mid level wave across the central conus during the
midweek period. high variability remains across the collective
ensemble model solution space in terms of trajectory and strength of
this system. assessment of the eps/geps solutions point to a
predominant trend toward a flatter and more southerly solution,
leaving southeast michigan positioned along the northern fringe of
associated mid level dynamics /if anything at all/. the
interquartile range in qpf captures this in showing a spread from
nothing to around 0.15" up through roughly the m-59 corridor for
thursday. gefs holding a more bullish scenario at this stage.
outgoing forecast maintains simply a chance mention for snow across
the thursday period. otherwise, seasonable temperatures entrenched
wed-thu, with a warming trend outlooked for friday ahead of another
clipper expected to shear across the northern great lakes early next
weekend.

marine...

expansive pressure gradient extends from the atlantic coast into the
great lakes region as a strong low lifts into new england. this
gradient is responsible for northerly flow sustained around 25-30
knots. the enhanced flow and thermal trough in place generate heavy
freezing spray through much of the day, prompting a warning north of
sturgeon point. high pressure then briefly fills in tonight-tuesday
to back winds to the southwest and relax sustained winds below 10
knots by tuesday morning. this quieter marine period will be short-
lived as a clipper system quickly arrives tuesday afternoon. a
strong low level jet (45-50 knots) accompanies this clipper, but
will struggle to mix gusts to the surface amidst cold water
temperatures and stable conditions. a brief period for gale force
gusts does exist tuesday night, but confidence is too low for a
watch at this time given the aforementioned stability and
progressive nature of the jet. this clipper also brings another
round of snow to the region. high pressure then returns mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...mr
marine.......mv

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.