Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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973
fxus61 kcle 140755
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
355 am edt mon sep 14 2026

.what has changed...
there is now a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
on tuesday across northwest ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and cooler today as canadian high pressure quickly moves east
across the great lakes region.

2) chances for showers and return tuesday and continue through
thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a taste of fall expected today as canadian high pressure quickly
pushes eastward across the region. dry conditions persist through
the day today. high temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees
across much of the forecast area with low 70s most likely across the
i-75 corridor. chilly low temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. as the high exits to the east, southerly return flow will
put the region back into the warm sector by tuesday.

key message 2...
low pressure moving east across ontario will lift a warm front
across the forecast area on tuesday. the bulk of the area should
remain dry during the day on tuesday with the exception of zones in
northwest ohio. scattered strong to severe storms will approach from
the west tuesday afternoon and evening bringing a localized risk of
damaging wind gusts. counties along the i-75 corridor are in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms on tuesday. locally
heavy rainfall is possible across northwest ohio given pwats
increasing to 1.75-2.00 inches tuesday evening.

the system will then drag a cold front east across the region
tuesday night before the front stalls across the region wednesday
and thursday. scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected both
days as the stationary front remains draped across the northern ohio
valley. showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall across the region as areawide pwats range between 1.75-2.25
inches through mid/late week. the wpc has our entire forecast area
under a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall
wednesday and thursday. the stationary front will dive south
thursday night into friday allowing for any remaining precipitation
chances to decrease by the end of the week.

highs temperatures through this week will rise into the upper 70s to
lower 80s with warm overnight lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
a cold front moving southeast of the terminals this morning with
high pressure building into the region has allowed for all rain
to exit east. some low vfr clouds remain over the eastern
airspace and with cold air advection over warm lake erie, there
will be continued lake clouds over this area through early this
afternoon. otherwise, clear conditions are expected elsewhere
with northerly flow across the region. high pressure will shift
east tonight and winds will shift to the east then southeast
with high clouds entering late.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms tuesday
through thursday.

&&

.marine...
conditions along and west of the islands have improved as high
pressure begins to take hold. have expired the small craft advisory
and beach hazards statement for the western basin with the 4 am
forecast package. the scy and bhs remains in effect for the central
and eastern basins, and neighboring lakeshore zones, through 10 am
this morning as buoys continue to report winds 15-20 knots and waves
3-6 feet.

there remains the potential for waterspouts to develop across the
central and eastern basins of lake erie early this morning into the
late morning hours.

conditions will improve through this morning as high pressure builds
across the region leading to light and variable winds by this
evening. winds turn offshore at 10-18 knots tuesday with wave
heights in nearshore zones 2 feet or less. winds turn northerly but
decrease to 10-15 knots tuesday night into wednesday as a cold front
moves across lake erie. no additional marine headlines are expected
through the end of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for
ohz010>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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974
fxus63 kiwx 140557
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
157 am edt mon sep 14 2026

.key messages...

- cooler monday with highs in the 70s with comfortable humidity
levels and sun.

- turning hot and humid tuesday and wednesday. rain and storms
possible tuesday afternoon through wednesday with 30-70%
chances.

- there is a marginal risk for isolated severe storms on
tuesday. main threat is damaging winds if storms become severe.
confidence is low at this time.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 141 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

despite the nbm having no pops today, the href is in good agreement
that widely scattered showers will occur in northwest indiana and
southwest lower michigan from 20z-00z tonight as an upper level
trough and attendant 500mb shortwave that passes through the great
lakes. rainfall amounts should be light, less than 0.10" for most
locations. surface observations show that the surface cold front
associated with this upper level system already passed through the
area this morning. incoming high pressure behind the front means the
pressure gradient will increase over the area this afternoon and
evening, with wind gusts up to 20-25 mph sunday afternoon and
evening. strong northwest flow and caa behind the front will make
for a pleasant night tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
a very fall-like day is ahead monday with highs only in the low to
mid 70s, comfortable humidity, and some filtered sunshine as high
pressure will be directly overhead.

if you have plans to head to se lake michigan beaches today, stay
out of the water! there is a high swim risk and a beach hazards
statement is in effect until 03z monday. behind the cold frontal
passage this morning, dangerous swimming conditions have developed
and are expected to persist through tonight for southeastern lake
michigan beaches in berrien and la porte counties. buoy observations
offshore of washington park beach and silver beach show waves of 3-4
ft as of early afternoon. moderate to strong rip and structural
currents are expected. hazardous swimming conditions may occur again
on tuesday.

an upper level ridge will build across the central and eastern conus
over the next several days. with waa and southwesterly moisture
transport from the gulf, heat and humidity will build on tuesday
underneath the peak of the upper level ridge over the great lakes.
our far southwest will be the warmest with temperatures in the low
90s for highs tuesday and peak heat indices approaching heat
advisory criteria at around 97-98 degrees. confidence is low
for peak heat indices due to chances for rain/storms (see below)
and clouds, so will hold off on any heat headlines for now.

another cold front approaches late tuesday and wednesday with zonal
flow aloft as the ridge gets suppressed. have maintained likely
pops of 40-70% tuesday afternoon through wednesday. there is a
marginal risk for severe weather on tuesday; isolated damaging
wind gusts will be possible due to up to 2000 j/kg of sbcape and
steepening low level lapse rates. with forcing expected to be
weak, this could be a limiting factor for strong to severe
storms. there are still some uncertainties with this system in
regards to exact timing and placement of the cold front.
rain/storm chances midweek will be highly dependent on where the
periphery of the ridge ends up (which model guidance has
routinely struggled with this same setup in recent months). the
boundary will likely stall somewhere across the great lakes or
ohio river valley as the upper level ridge shifts eastward, so
have maintained broad pops midweek of 30-50%.

given that the overall synoptic pattern this fall will be influenced
by a strong to potentially historic el nino, guidance is slowly
trending towards near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures
with drier than normal conditions for mid to late september.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 150 am edt mon sep 14 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals through tonight. light
and variable winds through morning, then shifting ese and
strengthening through late tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 3 am cdt early this morning for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 4 am edt early this morning for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 140757
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
357 am edt mon sep 14 2026

.key messages...

- sunny and cooler with low humidity today.

- a chance of showers and thunderstorms returns tuesday. the best
chance of storms is late afternoon and evening south of i-69.

- a chance of showers lingers wednesday before becoming more numerous
wednesday night and thursday.

- dry weather with temperatures around normal friday into next
weekend.

&&

.discussion...

the center of expansive surface high pressure drifts across central
lower mi to dominate conditions today. it has already delivered a
cool and dry air mass to the region as evidenced by temperature
observations dropping into the upper 40s outside of detroit and away
from the shorelines. also impressive is temperature guidance that
struggles to break 70 this afternoon despite full sun, although we
are getting closer to the equinox.

high clouds are on the increase this evening which signal a quick
transition to the next low pressure system. it is projected to move
out of the rockies and along the canadian border today and occlude
across nw ontario tonight. this track sets up the low level jet and
plume of moisture transport from the central plains into the
northern great lakes which then settles into central lower mi by
sunrise tuesday. behavior of regional and hi-res deterministic
models reflects a tendency for erosion of the precipitation pattern
by dry air lingering out ahead of the system. there is also some
breakup caused by the moisture axis outrunning the upper jet and mid
level short wave, both of which are positioned well to the north
across northern ontario and the northern great lakes. mostly chance
or scattered pop guidance in the nbm looks good in this regard until
flaring up later tuesday afternoon. daytime heating is projected to
boost convection by then, mainly across metro detroit to the ohio
border, as the cold front crosses the area into tuesday evening. the
spc day 2 outlook grazes lenawee and monroe counties in a marginal
risk for severe intensity.

the surface cold front makes it south of the in/oh border by
wednesday morning where it stalls and wavers across central in/oh
through wednesday night and thursday. this keeps a chance of showers
in the forecast for se mi, mainly south of i-69 as elevated portions
of the frontal zone are activated by southward expanding upper level
jet. the 00z models maintain a consensus on a more coherent mid
level short wave and surface low pressure reflection along the
stationary front late wednesday night and thursday. ml/ai runs of
the gfs and ecmwf help narrow down areas closer to the ohio border
for the highest pops and qpf, and in general agreement with the wpc
marginal outlook for excessive rainfall.

we get a break in showers/storms by friday in the subsidence wake of
the passing short wave. building surface high pressure drives the
frontal zone well down into the ohio valley where it takes most of
saturday to begin a northward return. global/extended range models
bring the next low pressure system back into the upper midwest
saturday and through lower mi sunday.

&&

.marine...

nw wind dropped off rapidly with the approach of broad surface high
pressure since midnight. the high moves across lower mi and lake
huron today on pace for a rapid transition of conditions ahead of the
next low pressure system. this system gains strength while tracking
across the canadian prairies tonight and tuesday, and eventually
reaches the hudson bay region by tuesday night/wednesday. southerly
flow out ahead of the system will increase across the north half of
lake huron with gusts now expected to reach gale force toward sunrise
tuesday and continuing through mid afternoon. concern for warm air
falling short of gales is balanced by model soundings that do
indicate a well mixed boundary layer within the inbound warmer air
mass, and this makes the wind profile capable of tapping into higher
gusts aloft. the gale watch is upgraded to a warning in this forecast
update with the same effective time of 4 am tonight through 4 pm
tuesday. it was also decided to include zone lh361 as gusts reach
offshore of presque isle and extend northward across the canadian
border. a band of showers and thunderstorms also accompanies this
gale event until pushed to the south and east by a cold front tuesday
night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1156 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

aviation...

dry and stable conditions overnight into monday as high pressure
builds into the region. this will support mainly clear skies, with
winds remaining modest from a northerly direction overnight and
monday morning. any diurnal cu will remain limited for the
afternoon. thickening high based cloud returns heading into monday
evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz361>363.

small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory from 2 am to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......ss/bt
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.