Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
225
fxus61 kcle 241955
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
255 pm est tue feb 24 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains largely unchanged compared to this
morning`s full update. a winter weather advisory remains in
effect for crawford and southern erie counties in nw pa from 7
pm this evening to 1 pm est wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) a clipper-type low pressure system is still expected to
deliver a widespread accumulating snow to our region this
evening into early wednesday morning. greatest snow accumulations
are still expected in nw pa.

2.) a progressive weather pattern is expected on wednesday
through next week tuesday. it will include bouts of below-normal
and above-normal air temperatures.

&&

.discussion...

1.) a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to
exit e`ward through this evening. during this evening through
daybreak wednesday, a shortwave trough axis aloft should move
from the western great lakes and vicinity to near western
ny and western pa. just ahead of the shortwave trough axis
aloft, a very weak surface cold front will traverse our region.
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis
aloft is expected to allow widespread snow to blossom over our
cwa between roughly 8 pm and midnight tonight. the aforementioned
cold front should sweep generally e`ward through our region
between about midnight and daybreak wednesday morning. low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the front will likely act as a
focus for the development of additional snow showers. given the
expected progression of the surface cold front and shortwave
trough axis aloft, the widespread snow should end generally from
west to east between midnight and roughly daybreak wednesday
morning as both features are followed by stabilizing subsidence
accompanying another ridge that will build from the west. the
snow is expected to be moderate to heavy at times, even outside
the winter weather advisory, since the moist isentropic ascent
should be moderate to strong and maximized in a cloudy dgz ~1 km
deep, or at cloud temperatures just colder than the dgz, for at
least an hour or two. the longest-duration heavier snow, which
should last for several hours, is expected to impact nw pa. as a
result, snowfall totals are expected to reach 2-5" in nw pa,
1-3" in ne oh, and mainly 1" or less elsewhere in our cwa.
overnight lows should reach the lower 20`s to lower 30`s.

2.) w`erly flow aloft is expected over northern oh and nw pa on
wednesday through friday night. wednesday through wednesday
night should be mainly dry as stabilizing subsidence accompanies
the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft that should
continue to build from the upper midwest and vicinity. peeks of
sunshine should contribute to high temperatures reaching the
mid 30`s to mid 40`s wednesday afternoon. for context, normal
highs are near 40f and normal lows are near 25f this time of
year in our cwa. continued net low-level caa behind the above-
mentioned cold front should contribute to the development of
light lake-effect snow (les) showers over lake erie and
extending generally e`ward across the primary snowbelt of ne oh
and nw pa. the les should end around midnight wednesday night as
drier air at the surface and aloft arrives from the west and a
lowering subsidence inversion causes lake-induced cape to wane
significantly. this les should yield fresh snow accumulations
of 1" or less. lows should reach mainly the mid teens to lower
20`s around daybreak thursday morning. latest odds now favor dry
weather on thursday through friday night as the ridge at the
surface and aloft should eventually crest e`ward across our
region. rather abundant sunshine and the development of net low-
level waa on the backside of the surface ridge axis should
allow late afternoon highs to reach the lower 30`s to lower 40`s
on thursday and the lower 40`s to lower 50`s on friday.
overnight lows should reach the upper teens to mid 20`s thursday
night and the 30`s friday night.

w`erly flow aloft should persist over our region this weekend
through next week tuesday. at the surface and aloft, the polar
front should waver in/near the great lakes region and upper oh
valley as multiple mid-latitude cyclones develop/evolve along
the front. periods of precip, mainly in the form of rain and/or
snow are expected, especially saturday night through tuesday,
along the front and ahead of shortwave trough axes embedded in
the flow aloft. on saturday, highs should reach the lower 40`s
to lower 50`s amidst low-level waa ahead of a late-day cold
front passage. mainly colder-than-normal temperatures should
impact our region saturday night through monday night. on
tuesday, a warm front may sweep generally n`ward through our
region and allow our highs to be near-normal.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
a few lingering light snow showers remain across neoh and nwpa
as the associated trough continues to push east. these snow
showers are no longer causing reductions to visibilities,
however widespread mvfr ceilings are being reported across the
area. as the ridge becomes more dominant this afternoon, there
should be a brief period of vfr conditions at all terminals, but
they will be short lived as another clipper system impacts
terminals tonight. snowfall chances begin to increase near 03z
in nwoh before spreading southeast across the entire area.
visibilities will likely drop to mvfr distances with this
clipper with a non-zero chance of ifr/lifr visibilities where
the heaviest bands persist. most terminals will remain non-vfr
through the period with far western terminals possibly
rebounding to vfr by late wednesday morning.

southwest winds today will increase to 12-15 knots along and
west of i71 with gusts up to 25 knots possible. as the cold
front approaches after 00z tonight, winds will increase across
the entire area to 12-17 knots, gusting up to 25-30 knots.
locally higher gusts are possible at keri due to downslope
enhancement. as the front pushes east wednesday morning, winds
will weaken to 10-12 knots before increasing once again
wednesday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lingering light snow showers
across northwest pennsylvania during the day wednesday.
additional non-vfr possible in light snow as another disturbance
crosses the area thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest flow will increase across lake erie this afternoon
with winds of 20-25 knots expected by 06z as a strong cold front
pushes southeast. generally, these winds will persist into
wednesday, although slightly weaker winds are possible across
the eastern basin. high pressure will nudge over the area
wednesday night, shifting winds to be from the west-northwest
at 5-15 knots. winds become more variable at 5-10 knots thursday
afternoon as a low pressure system moves south of the area. on
friday, there should be a high pressure system over the area
with increasing winds on the western fringe from the southwest.
current forecast increases winds to 20-25 knots ahead of a cold
front expected friday night into saturday.

while small craft advisories remain suspended due to extensive
ice coverage across the majority of the lake, waves in ice free
areas may build to 3 to 6 feet during periods of stronger winds.
any wind shifts and elevated winds will result in movement of
lake ice, which could impact shipping lanes.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
wednesday for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
575
fxus63 kiwx 241835
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
135 pm est tue feb 24 2026

.key messages...

- gusty conditions causing drifting snow across open and rural
areas relaxes this evening.

- a fast moving system may bring a dusting of snow accumulation
this evening into tonight.

- warmer temperatures on friday and saturday turn colder for
later in the weekend with some additional chances of snow
possibly into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm est tue feb 24 2026

with surface high pressure in the gulf and low pressure across the
plains and great lakes regions, warm advection ensued today ahead of
a cold frontal passage this evening. gusty 25 to 40 mph winds today
relax this evening. in these waa setups, there`s weaker low level
lapse rates and lower mixing heights keeping gusts lower despite a
40 to 50 kt jet moving through. watch out for snow drifts on the way
home, especially in open areas. now, as the cold front moves through
this evening, some system snow showers are expected to occur, but
accumulations are expected to stay less than 1 inch.

yesterday`s highs in the upper 20s to around 30 became securely in
the mid to upper 30s today. highs cool slightly behind the cold
front for wednesday north of us-30, but actually warm up across
areas south of us-30. high pressure pokes in from the northwest
and heights rise wednesday causing a dry day.

the activity we`ve been tracking for wednesday night and thursday
has been trending south over time. have maintained a few tenths
of snow in our southern tier of counties, but can see that being
removed going forward.

warm advection moving through as a result of a low in south-central
canada allows for warmer temperatures on friday in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. friday looks dry with the influence from mid level height
rises and surface high pressure.

as the clipper that gave us waa on friday moves into the northern
great lakes, caa advection ensues behind a cold front it pushes
through friday night. this cools the single digit temps at 850
mb friday evening to negative single digit temps saturday
evening and allows for highs slightly cooler, primarily in the
40s, but a few 50s are possible south of us-30. while it`s dry
for the first part of saturday, there`s some sign that a clipper
system may try to ride along the baroclinic boundary that
remains around the region saturday night. some uncertainty
remains on track this far out because the location of the
boundary is still in question. either way, the boundary appears
to have some moisture connection to the gulf, which could help
with system strength. something to watch going forward.

surface high pressure dries things out again for sunday and
certainly makes it cooler with highs in the 30s and morning lows in
the 20s. then that baroclinic zone lights up with areas of low
pressure developing along it starting sunday night and continuing
into the middle of the next work week. temperatures trend warmer
with, probably, the first system having snow, but the trend will be
towards increasing rain chances as an upper low scoots into
southwestern conus and shoves the area of warmth and moisture in the
south northeastward, toward our area. given what has happened with
tomorrow night`s system, it is important to remember that model
evolution can change and model errors can be corrected over
time.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1124 am est tue feb 24 2026

southerly winds will pick up this afternoon into this evening,
gusting 25-30 knots at times. vfr and dry otherwise before a
cold front tracks through northern in tonight with the chance
(30-40%) for a 2-4 hour period of light snow. limited moisture
quality and northward bypass of more pronounced mid level
forcing brings into question whether snow accompanies the front
this far south. continued with a prob30 group for now given the
lacking confidence. winds veer to the wnw post-frontal with cigs
generally high mvfr to low vfr into wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
283
fxus63 kdtx 242006
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
306 pm est tue feb 24 2026

.key messages...

- a band of accumulating snow tracks through the region this evening,
with additional snow shower chances again by the mid to late
morning hours.

- snow total accumulations will range from around one-half
inch to 2 inches. the highest amounts are expected across the
saginaw valley and northern thumb.

- breezy with wind chills in the teens tomorrow.


&&

.discussion...

a quick hitting clipper system is on track to bring light snow
across se mi later this evening as the low pressure system travels
from lake superior into southeastern ontario. progression of this
system will drive a cold front across se mi tonight which will bring
the snow across the cwa from northwest to southeast between
roughly 23z to 05z.

the bulk of the forcing will derived along the elevated frontal
boundary between 700-400mb with enhancement from a mid-level wave.
the limiting factor for meaningful snow accumulation will be the
fast translation of the boundary. the bulk of snowfall accumulation
will likely be along the initial line of snow, where brief mesoscale
banding will be possible, which can account for a very quick half-
inch to an inch of accumulation in a 30-60 min window. outside of
this, broader ascent and lighter snowfall will be possible for an
extra hour or two. these higher amounts of around an inch will be
most likely through the tri cities and thumb where the ageostrophic
response along the front is stronger.

a lull in snowfall is expected in the wake of the clipper system
before lagged surface and near-surface caa picks up through the
morning as a secondary mid-level wave traverses overhead. lake
enhanced moisture will move inland given larger land/lake
temperature differences while the colder air turns near surface
thermodynamics more favorable for development of some snow showers,
noting stronger 0-2km theta-e lapse rates. some embedded heavier
snow showers or a convective snow squall will be possible through
the morning to afternoon hours which can bring an additional quick
half-inch to an inch of snow accumulation. this would be highly
localized pending the development of any stronger snow showers, and
would be most likely north of m59, aligned with the better moisture
axis. otherwise, flurries will be likely for all locations across se
mi as convective depths shrink through the evening. healthy boundary
layer mixing brings wind gusts of 30-35 mph during daylight hours,
bringing wind chills in the teens through the day. overnight low
temperatures drop into the teens thursday morning with wind chills
nearing the upper-single digits.

a diffuse area of high pressure brings dry conditions thursday with
limited precipitation chances continuing through the end of the
week. a clipper system set to impact the u.p. will back winds friday
into saturday, bringing above normal conditions for at least friday
with highs in the mid to upper 40s. the next stronger signal for
precipitation chances will be saturday into sunday morning once a
cold front gradually expands into and progresses through southern
michigan with forecasted temperatures at this time being cold enough
to support snow.

&&

.marine...

clipper system tracks across ontario this evening, drawing a 50-55
knot sw low level jet into the great lakes along with a band of
snow. guidance favors stable profiles due to warm air advection and
nocturnal timing of the jet, which prevents mixing of the strongest
gusts to the surface. frequent gusts thus expected to hold below 30
knots with a few sporadic gale force gusts possible, but will
monitor observations in case localized pockets of mixing develop.
cold front then tracks through the region wednesday morning,
shifting winds to the west and generating lake effect snow showers.
high pressure briefly returns wednesday night and thursday bringing
drier conditions to the area, with winds relaxing to 10 knots or
less and gradually back to the southwest. this is followed by
another low that sweeps across ontario friday-saturday, driving a
strong cold front across the region saturday morning. the frontal
passage will be one to watch for wind/wave impacts across the great
lakes.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1250 pm est tue feb 24 2026

aviation...

milder air makes northward progress into lower mi as sw wind
increases this afternoon. the transition initially supports spotty
coverage of mvfr ceiling that clears east of the terminal corridor
at or shortly after the start of the 18z forecast. vfr under
thickening mid and and high clouds then resumes for the afternoon
until the northern ontario low pressure system sends a pattern of
snow into the area this evening. ifr visibility first moves into the
mbs area toward 00z while sw wind holds gusts in the mid 20 kt
range. the pattern spreads toward fnt, ptk, and into the dtw
corridor during the evening with a few hours of ifr and light
accumulation at each site until exiting toward or shortly after
midnight. the trailing cold front brings reinforcing coverage of
mvfr ceiling and west wind still holding 25 knot gusts. lake
enhanced snow showers have greater coverage toward fnt and mbs late
tonight which spread across the rest of se mi with at least
scattered coverage during wednesday morning.

for dtw... vfr above 5000 ft precedes a round of snow on track to
arrive toward mid evening. a few hours of ifr visibility and about
1/2 inch of accumulation is expected before the pattern exits
eastward shortly after midnight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. high
tonight and wednesday.

* high for precipitation type as snow.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......mv
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.