Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
516
fxus61 kcle 201145
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
745 am edt sat jun 20 2026

.what has changed...
while widespread rain is still expected sunday night and monday, the
qpf forecast for sunday night and monday has started to trend
lower.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon.

2) widespread rain of 1-1.5 inches is forecast for sunday night into
monday. rises on area rivers are likely with the potential for a
couple to approach minor flood levels. ponding of water on
roadways is also likely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

scattered showers are noted upstream across michigan ahead of a
shortwave crossing northern lake michigan. in addition, a few
thunderstorms are also ongoing early this morning south of lake
michigan where moisture advection is focused. expecting to see a few
showers near lake erie this morning moving southeast. both coverage
of showers and potential for scattered thunderstorms are expected to
increase as these move inland across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania, generally between noon and 4 pm. instability will be a
limiting factor today with surface based cape of only 500-700j/kg.
some shear is present but dry air in the mid-levels will likely
limit storm intensity. a couple wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible
with thunderstorms.

key message 2...

the next rain making system arrives sunday night as a shortwave
races east across the plains towards the local area. surface low
pressure of 1006 mb will approach from the west ahead of the
shortwave late sunday night. rain is expected to expand west to east
across the area sunday night with a 40-45 knot low level jet
providing a good focus for isentropic ascent. deep moisture and
efficient rainfall will contribute to several hours of steady rain.
thunderstorms are more likely to arrive early monday morning as the
warm front lifts north into central ohio. occasional showers are
expected to continue on the northern flank of the low through the
day on monday.

overall the rainfall forecast has trended slightly lower with this
system over the last 24-48 hours. we are looking for rainfall
ranging from 0.75" towards erie pennsylvania with locally around
1.5" closer to central ohio. uncertainty in the forecast is
a result of how upstream convection will influence moisture
transport and coverage/duration of rain across the local area.
convection is expected to fire from indiana southwest into
missouri on sunday and build southward with time. this area to
our southwest is highlighted for both a slight risk of severe
weather and a moderate risk of excessive rainfall. the excessive
rainfall outlook for the local area has trended down with just
a few of our southwestern counties included in the slight risk
of excessive rainfall(level 2 of 5) while the rest of the area
is in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 5). in
addition, dry air in the mid-levels now looks to arrive overhead
early monday. still expect rises on area rivers, especially
where rainfall exceeds an inch. this could be enough to push a
river or two to action stage but confidence is lower in a couple
of the southern rivers reaching minor flooding. ground
conditions will certainly get soggy with ponding of water likely
during higher rates. will monitor for localized flooding in
poor drainage areas or if training of thunderstorms occurs.
temperatures continue to trend down for monday with cloudy skies
and lingering showers. temperatures are forecast to remain
slightly below normal through next week.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
a few showers are being observed on radar this morning, but dry
air is not allowing these to reach the ground, so kept all
terminals dry and vfr this morning. a better potential for
scattered showers will occur this afternoon as the mid/upper
shortwave and associated cold front pass across the region.
confidence remains low on any cells impacting a terminal, but
the best potential is at kmfd, kcak, and kyng, so kept vcsh
there. any briefly heavy downpour could drop cigs and vis to
mvfr or lower, but for the most part, vfr will continue this
afternoon and through tonight.

light w winds early this morning will increase to 10-15 knots
this afternoon, gusting up to 25 knots at times. w winds will
become light again tonight.

outlook...showers and thunderstorms are possible sunday
afternoon through tuesday morning with the potential for non-vfr
coverage.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions are expected on lake erie today and most of
sunday, with w winds of 5-10 knots this morning increasing to
10-15 knots this afternoon before turning light and variable
tonight into sunday afternoon. conditions will start to change
sunday evening as low pressure moving out of the mississippi
valley lifts a warm front to just south of the lakeshore sunday
night. this will support e winds increasing to 15-25 knots
sunday night, turning ne at 15-25 knots monday behind the
trailing cold front as the low progresses toward the mid
atlantic. nne winds will then gradually decrease monday night,
turning nnw at 5-10 knots tuesday through wednesday as high
pressure builds down across the great lakes. small craft
advisories are likely sunday night and monday, with the highest
winds and waves expected in the western and central basins.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
971
fxus63 kiwx 201040
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- a moderate swim risk is in effect for berrien county beaches
today. waves of 2-3 ft and currents are expected.

- widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected
late sunday. most locations will receive 0.5-1.5" of rain with
pockets of 2" or more possible along and south of us-24.

- highs will remain in the 70s for much of the upcoming week
with additional chances for rain mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 am edt sat jun 20 2026

weak shortwave currently shearing out just north of our cwa. a few
showers noted in radar/surface obs but dry/stable low levels and
weak forcing keeping coverage and amounts very limited. this
activity is expected to exit our se zones right around 12z with
mostly sunny skies for the rest of today and into the early
overnight. peak solstice sun angle will likely once again push highs
very near 80f despite cool-ish 850mb temps.

late sunday remains the primary focus for this forecast package as a
more formidable shortwave ejects out of the central plains. right
entrance upper jet dynamics will yield increasing low level
warm/moist air advection into at least our southern zones by late
afternoon. earlier noted trend toward a surface low track just south
of our cwa continued in the 00z guidance and lowers the risk of
severe weather. there are still a few exceptions (such as the 3km
nam) which still lift the surface low into our area. while it
certainly still bears watching, this is looking more like an
outlier. of slightly greater concern is the potential for some
pockets of heavier rain in our se zones. still looks like a
widespread 0.5-1.5" for our cwa (lowest north) with some potential
for pockets of 2" or more in our southeast where better moisture
convergence will reside. a more southern track limits even the
elevated instability though with poor midlevel lapse rates and pw
values stay generally below 2" outside of our far s/se. a flood
watch may eventually be needed for parts of our south but
uncertainty with instability/rainfall amounts results in confidence
too low for watch issuance at this time. our forecast area also
luckily missed out on the very heavy rain which fell over southern
indiana wed night and we should be able to handle 1-2" of rain with
minimal impacts.

showers exit mon morning and expect dry conditions through tue.
persistent negative height anomaly over eastern canada will maintain
cool wnw flow with highs in the 70s through fri. several weak
midlevel perturbations will also yield periodic chances for rain and
a few storms mid-late week. a return to more typical summer weather
looks to arrive next weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 640 am edt sat jun 20 2026

light rain will exit kfwa within the hour as parent shortwave
weakens and exits. midlevel clouds will continue to scatter
through the morning and vfr conditions are expected through the
period. wnw winds may gust 20-25 kts again this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
688
fxus63 kdtx 201107
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
707 am edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and a rumble of thunder this morning gain greater
coverage toward the tri cities and thumb. there is a better chance
for an ordinary thunderstorm this afternoon north of i-69.

- dry tonight and sunday.

- broader coverage of showers and thunderstorms develop sunday night,
especially south of i-94.

- showers linger monday morning then dry in the afternoon and
evening.

- cooler than normal temperatures are expected through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

a mix of mid and high clouds carry a stray shower or rumble of
thunder around the area this morning. limited initial cumulus
development starts out with scattered mvfr bases as daytime heating
ramps up until building into broken vfr coverage this afternoon.
this leads into renewed development of showers mainly from ptk
northward. weak surface low pressure focuses instability for a
better chance of thunderstorms toward fnt and mbs but without
clearly defined timing. a specific thunderstorm mention is better
added in later updates based on observational trends and until
activity fades around sunset.

upper midwest high pressure builds into lower mi late tonight. it is
preceded by a light nw wind and a lingering mid/high cloud
component. these together delay fog potential until a shallow mvfr
restriction develops closer to sunrise, again mainly in the fnt to
mbs area where wet ground can augment surface based moisture.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorm potential holds north of dtw
toward the northern fringe of d21 this afternoon and evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 am edt sat jun 20 2026

discussion...

modest surface low pressure traversing lower mi has pockets of
showers ongoing during the late night. the surface system is tied to
a compact mid/upper level short wave producing some elevated
moisture transport to fuel the observed shower pattern which
contains a stray rumble of thunder. this wave quickly shears
eastward during the morning and leaves behind larger scale mid/upper
level deformation over lower mi that is connected to a larger closed
low in central canada. the resulting neutral to slightly upward
vertical motion in this zone allows the lingering surface low/trough
to be the focus of new shower/storm development during peak
afternoon heating, mainly toward the tri cities and thumb. the new
00z href and model soundings advertise low density surface based
cape hovering around 500 j/kg by mid afternoon, just enough for an
isolated ordinary thunderstorm until activity fades with sunset.

a subtle short wave ridge and diffuse surface high pressure
maintains dry weather for the rest of tonight and through sunday.
consensus of 00z deterministic models then keeps the current central
rockies system on time to reach the ohio valley sunday night. the
mid/upper level wave initiates textbook lee side surface
cyclogenesis during the day which sweeps up readily accessible gulf
moisture to fuel convection. central plains mcs development is
likely as a result which propagates into the mid ms/lower oh valley
during sunday. the resulting hybrid short wave/mcv keeps the oh
valley surface to low level frontal zone active sunday night while
an elevated pattern of moisture transport grazes lower mi. the
forecast question over the last few cycles has been how far north
showers/storms will be able to reach into lower mi while the system
shears quickly eastward during the night and early monday. the low
level jet is directed more toward the oh/tn valleys keeping the 850-
700 mb flow weaker and quick to flip nw over the great lakes later
sunday night. these larger scale trends continue to favor a sharp
rainfall gradient with limited northward extent. deterministic
regional model consensus of 1 inch event totals are now near or just
south of the ohio border decreasing to just trace amounts toward the
i-69 corridor. this is likely to be reflected in nbm runs over the
next few model cycles.

dry weather holds monday afternoon and night as slightly cooler
north wind develops over lower mi on the heels of the ohio valley
system. surface high pressure influence then lasts through tuesday
followed quickly by the next midwest low pressure system for
wednesday.

marine...

a ridge of high pressure will build in this morning which will
support light winds through the day. a diffuse area of high pressure
will then remain over the great lakes through this weekend and will
maintain the lighter winds. periodic rain showers will be possible
today as an upper-level disturbance holds over the region. a low
pressure system will then arrive over the ohio valley and southern
great lakes tomorrow night. this will bring the next likely chances
for rain, embedded thunderstorms and elevated winds centered late
tomorrow through monday morning. most of this activity is expected
to be concentrated across lake erie up to lake st. clair.

hydrology...

scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms produce generally less
than 0.25 inch of rainfall today. dry weather tonight and sunday
leads into a more widespread shower and thunderstorm pattern that
increases sunday evening and continues into monday morning, mainly
south of i-69. stronger low pressure tracking through the ohio
valley pulls gulf moisture northward into southern lower mi resulting
in periods of heavier showers and thunderstorms. rainfall totals
from sunset sunday evening until noon monday have a chance to reach
around 1 inch, mainly from the ohio border northward but holding
south of the i-94 corridor. totals drop off quickly across metro
detroit to less than 0.25 inch toward the m-59 corridor. this
scenario presents a low threat of flooding limited to minor ponding
of water on roads and in other prone areas until the rain ends by
monday afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...bt
marine.......am
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.