Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
629 pm est thu feb 19 2026

.what has changed...
a couple strong to sever thunderstorms are possible this
evening into the overnight with large hail possible. strong
gusty winds are likely behind a cold front on friday. a colder
weather pattern will return this weekend and continue into next
week with scattered chances for light snow.

&&

.key messages...
1) a developing storm system over the ohio valley will bring the
scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight.
a couple strong to severe storms may be possible with large hail
as the main threat.

2)strong gusty winds from the west will follow the passage of a
cold front friday morning.

3) colder and seasonable-like temperatures will return this
weekend through next week along with chances for scattered snow
showers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the unseasonable mild weather over the region will give fuel to
a developing storm system over the ohio valley this evening into
overnight. there is a stalled frontal boundary that stretches
from nwoh eastward along southern lakeshore of lake erie this
afternoon. north of this boundary, temperatures are stuck in the
30s. south of this surface boundary, temps have climbed into the
upper 50s and lower 60s. a developing surface low is currently
over the cornbelt region of the midwest. this low pressure
system will deepen as it track northeastward towards lake
michigan tonight.

our attention later this evening into the overnight will be
watching the strong to severe convection that is currently
developing over the lower and central ohio valley this
afternoon. the better thermodynamics and setup for severe
weather will remain southwest of our local area down closer to
the ohio river this afternoon and evening. that area of stormy
weather will eventually move northeast into northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania late this evening through very early
friday morning. we are expecting this convection to weaken for
the most part as it moves into our local area later tonight.
scattered "general" thunderstorms are very possible tonight.
there is a limited or marginal threat for a couple stronger
storms with large hail as the main severe weather hazard.
average qpf expected this evening through early friday morning
will be a quarter to half an inch of rainfall.


key message 2...
a strong low pressure system will deepen to around 988 mb by
later friday morning over central lake michigan. a rather strong
cold front will sweep from west to east across the area friday
morning. the cold frontal passage will be around 12z for nwoh
and quickly push eastward and pass through nwpa before noon.
temperatures will start off mild in the 50s friday morning and
steadily fall after the cold front passage into 30s by late
afternoon and evening. later in the friday afternoon and
evening, scattered snow flurries or snow showers will be
possible as the cold air advection and wrap around moisture
from the storm system pushes into the area. there will likely be
a good push of gusty winds up to 45 mph with the actual cold
front pushing through. gusty west winds will follow the frontal
passage through the rest of the day friday 20 to 30 mph with
gusts over 40 mph for neoh and nwpa. we have issued a wind
advisory for areas along and west of i-71 for strong winds of 25
to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible on friday.

key message 3...
forecast model guidance shows a big weather pattern change with
an upper level trough developing over the great lakes and
eastern u.s. this weekend into next week. this pattern with the
trough over the region will bring colder but seasonable
temperatures for the middle and end of february. the trough over
the great lakes will favor colder air moving over the lakes
which will develop scattered lake effect snow showers this
weekend continuing through monday night or early tuesday. light
snowfall accumulations of a few inches could be possible for the
favor snowbelt region. high temperatures will generally be in
the 30s and overnight low temperatures in the teens and 20s.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
southeast winds gusting to 35kts expected at eri in downsloping
conditions as low pressure approaches, ahead of a cold front.

elsewhere, fog and low stratus currently at fdy/tol will have
showers moving into the picture around the 02z time frame. this
activity is currently in west central indiana as of 2330z and is
moving east northeastward, and will need to watch to see if
thunder persists into our area. if so, it will need amds to for
the taf as no terminals are currently carrying tsra for now.
otherwise, showers will move through the entire area tonight in
generally a 4 or 5 hour window. for tol/fdy, this will actually
improve flight conditions, but terminals further east not in low
stratus and fog will have deteriorating flight conditions in
showers. cold front follows after the showers, and winds
increase out of the southwest gusting to 35kts while ceilings
improve, but lingering mvfr on the back side of the front is not
out of the question towards the end of the taf period.

outlook...this system will move near the east coast friday night,
with a weak trough lingering over lake erie and a ridge building to
the south. expect periods of non-vfr conditions throughout the
weekend, with the snow returning sunday and monday enhanced by a
vigorous coastal low pressure system exiting the mid atlantic. high
pressure will build across the region tuesday.

&&

.marine...
colder air has returned over the lake with a stationary front
now south of the lake this morning. this colder air has taken
advantage of some added low level moisture, courtesy of the
initial warm frontal passage on wednesday, and dense fog has
developed on the lake. this fog will last through the morning
hours and a marine dense fog advisory has been issued through
noon. outside of the fog, the lake should stay relatively steady
state with light east flow and cooler temperatures over the lake
for much of the day.

for friday, a low pressure system will advance the stationary
front north again with some oomph in a 45 kt low level jet and
some warm advection once again to get temperatures into the 50s.
this will allow for ice to continue to weaken across the lake
and strong southwest winds around 25 to 30 kts will allow for
movement of the ice fields. any ice floes will be hazardous to
folks on lake erie and may block or close established shipping
channels. people are urged to stay off the lake erie.

the low pressure system will weaken over the region on saturday
and southwest flow will fall to around 10 to 15 kts. a strong
low pressure system will move up the east coast on sunday into
monday and enhance the pressure gradient of the trough over the
region, allowing for 15 to 20 kts of northwest flow on sunday
and monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>012-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
pa...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142>149-
162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...26
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
740 pm est thu feb 19 2026

.key messages...

- the severe weather risk is decreasing. isolated thunderstorms
tonight may produce hail.

- a wind advisory is in effect for friday as 50 percent chance
for 45 mph gusts during the day. with the cold air arriving
and showers possible, expect rain to mix with or change over
to snow.

- snow and lake effect snow is expected sunday and monday with
accumulating snow possible downwind of lake mi.

&&

.update...
issued at 728 pm est thu feb 19 2026

thunderstorms are ongoing across central indiana within the
warm sector of a low centered over northern mo. activity is
steadily drifting east-northeast and poses a minimal threat to
our forecast area. severe weather parameters, mainly
instability, are weakening at this hour thus reducing our local
risk. observations along the us-24 corridor has been locked into
the cool sector and fog has been problematic for some as well.
isolated warm spots include lima, portland, and marion which are
in line for some rain as the central indiana activity passes
by, with any severe risk remaining well south of those
locations.

i did pass my concern on to the storm prediction center for
consideration. one item they mentioned worth monitoring is
upstream activity over central il. modest elevated cape profiles
there are forecast to diminish within a few hours as well,
making a poor case for our local area as well. cannot completely
rule out thunderstorms tonight producing small hail, but, the
overall risk of severe weather for the remainder of the night
appears minimal.

circling back to fog for a moment, fog persists over a number of
counties in the vicinity of the in-oh-mi line. southern counties
have improved as the warm front and associated rain have
arrived. however, far northern locations such as hillsdale, mi
present uncertainty with the low-level inversion holding strong
until any rain arrives. a special weather statement addresses
the fog for now, but trends will be monitored for any upgrades
this evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 218 pm est thu feb 19 2026

the near term features convective showers as an upper low resides
across the upper mississippi valley and northern plains regions. to
its south, a sfc low meanders northeastward for this evening/
overnight. with the low that far west, it`ll be down to the
boundaries moving northward or stalling and weaker
shortwaves/convergence in the flow to cause thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. the main limiting factor is going to be
instability given early season timeframe and lingering cloud
debris from morning convection. freezing level has been fairly
low at around 6 kft, but does make some sense given time of
year. mid level lapse rates around 7c/km are appreciable and
have likely factored into large hail being the main threat from
this morning`s storms. the other factor has been that many of
the morning storms have been elevated with mid level instability
supporting the hail and limiting the downdraft magnitudes with
the inversion in the low levels. on the other hand, shear has
been something that storms have been able to tap into with
around 30 kts of effective shear available and this also appears
to the case for into this evening. it still looks like the 21
to 01z window is the time to watch for strong to severe storms
to form again as moist convergence and the arrival of shortwaves
bring the potential to reignite storms again. it`ll be
interesting to see where initiation occurs because storms this
morning focused across the southwest and east- central
locations. clouds have already begun to erode in central il/in
areas ahead of our next wave. this area of convective showers
evacuates the area 3-6z according to the hrrr. there could be
one more axis of instability that swings through between 5 and
9z ahead of the the cold front swinging through. it still
appears that hail and damaging winds will be the main threat,
although a tornado cannot be ruled out if sunshine is able to
cut through the clouds and allow for more surface-based storms.

the atmospheric column cools down and dew points drop for friday.
however, an intensifying shortwave approaches lake mi 12z friday
morning and this does appear to have some weak instability with
soundings indicating steep 1000 to 850 mb low level lapse rates
potentially showing the possibility of graupel, hail, or maybe snow
mixed with rain as the column cools back down to freezing.
additionally, because of the caa and mixing into a 40 to 50 kt
llj, have issued a wind advisory for the area. 40 to 50 mph
winds wind gusts will be possible at times. the cold front
moving through late tonight/early tomorrow morning is one
negative that allows for a lower ceiling on gusts. subsidence
behind this vigorous shortwave stops precipitation friday
afternoon as the shortwave trekking towards the friday
night/saturday morning halts producing precipitation.

an upper low deepens over the great lakes saturday night/sunday and
trajectories turn to be more northwesterly as theta-e lapse rates
get better and the column moistens. this sets the stage for lake
effect snow. inversion heights up around 5 to 6 kft during the day
sunday could allow for some moderate snow, but delta ts are only 15
to 20c. it is interesting that the ecmwf indicates a 24 hr total
over winter advisory thresholds downwind of the lake. the snow would
continue through a good portion of monday.

temperatures warm ahead of a cold front for wednesday, which brings
some combination of rain and snow to the area.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 615 pm est thu feb 19 2026

persistent, dense fog has developed at kfwa on the north edge of
a slowly advancing warm front, perhaps with marine influence
from lake erie. signals are murky for how long this may
persist, with 50-degree dew points not too far away. overall, at
both sites, a period of rain and perhaps a thunderstorm is
expected this evening followed by increasing wind speeds after
12z in the wake of a cold front racing through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 7 am est /6 am cst/ to 7 pm est /6 pm cst/
friday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est friday for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...brown
discussion...roller
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
656 pm est thu feb 19 2026

.key messages...

- rain with isolated thunderstorms will occur tonight.

- gusty southwest winds are forecast friday afternoon and evening. a
wind advisory is in effect for the southern half of the forecast
area.

- a little colder temperatures will occur this weekend with
occasional chances for light snow.

&&

.aviation...

after a period of improved conditions across the area in the wake of
afternoon showers, fog is spreading back in from east to west early
this evening. for what it`s worth models and guidance is not as
strongly suggestive of a long duration dense fog event like last
night as additional moisture starts working up from the south later
this evening which could bring showers with it. this could slightly
improve vsbys as it did today and last evening. regardless, looks
like ifr/lifr cigs will hold through much of the night until area of
low pressure to the sw lifts up through lake mi and pulls an
occluded warm front up through the region. this could bring a period
of more widespread showers and also a period of strong winds from
the southwest with gusts of 30-40 knots during the afternoon.

for dtw... lifr fog and low cloud filled back in this afternoon and
should remain in place til around midnight when rain could begin.
cigs look to remain lifr but could see an improvement in vsbys
within the rain. rain chances carry through the morning with an
additional chance in the afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate to high for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below
1/2sm through this evening.

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight and friday.

* high for ptype of all rain.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 321 pm est thu feb 19 2026

discussion...

a weak short wave impulse and localized region of mid level
frontogenetical forcing will continue on its northeastward
trajectory across the forecast area late this afternoon. steep mid
level lapse rates has provided some scattered thunderstorms with a
few reports of small hail. the eastern half of the forecast area
remains influenced by the very stable marine layer and has continued
to see low stratus and fog. there has been good erosion of this fog
layer across the western sections of the forecast area. this may
continue to work east during the early evening before nocturnal
cooling and persistent easterly flow likely leads to a re expansion
of the low stratus and fog. the easterly wind fields will increase
during the night, which adds enough uncertainty as to dense fog
potential to refrain from an advisory issuance at this time.

rapid amplification of the mid level wave over nw kansas into a
compact upper low is forecast as it lifts into se wisconsin by fri
morning. respectable deep layer ascent will be driven across srn mi
overnight into friday morning along a preceding mid level vorticity
axis. broad upper divergence within the exit region of a 150 knot
upper jet combined with the mid level height falls will support an
axis of widespread showers traversing the region from south to
north. given continued steep mid level lapse rates, isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible.

the upper low will track across northern lower mi during the day
friday. the mid level dry slot will end the rain chances early-mid
friday morning. wrap around moisture will arrive during the
afternoon within the axis of cold air. the lack of moisture depth
will limit the chances of diurnal showers. aggressive cold air
advection from late fri morning into the afternoon will transition
the stable low level profile to unstable, thus fostering better
mixing. this will be most notable during the afternoon as the depth
of cold air and daytime mixing steepen low level lapse rates. the
compact nature of the low to mid level low will result in a strong
low level wind field across the southern lakes. model soundings have
a solid region of 40 to 50 knots at the top of the mixed layer from
generally owosso to flint to lapeer and points south. there has been
a gradual increase amongst the probabilistic guidance for wind gusts
around 45 mph. this and in coordination with sounding offices will
justify a wind advisory across the south half of the forecast area
friday. after morning temps in the 40s, temps will drop into the 30s
fri afternoon as cold air filters into the area.

the upper wave is forecast to shear apart as it slides across the
eastern lakes friday night into saturday. lingering low level
troughing along a low to mid level moisture axis across central
michigan will open the door to snow shower chances across the north.
marginally cold temps in the 30s will keep accumulations little to
none. although there is some model disagreement with respect to
placement of a rapidly deepening low pressure system over the mid
atlantic and northeast sunday, respectable agreement is shown
holding some degree of mid and low level troughing across lower mi
within a region of deep moisture. this will support a good chance
for light snow, with some minor accumulations possible.

marine...

drier air is attempting to work in from the west, and has started to
mix fog above one mile this afternoon. east flow persists and
strengthens tonight as the next low lifts toward the great lakes
friday. the low reaches the lake michigan basin friday morning,
lifting an occluded front and widespread precipitation across the
local waters. winds in the warm sector veer from the east-southeast
to the southwest, with the low/front reaching saginaw bay by friday
afternoon. opportunities for gales exist as this system works
through friday, both north of the warm front and in the warm sector
itself. for northern lake huron, stability and track of the low keep
enough uncertainty in the forecast to keep gale headlines as a watch
rather than upgrading to a warning at this time. the low has slowed
down in recent model runs, so opted to extend the end time to 00z.
increasing concern exists for gale potential for western lake erie
and possibly up to lake st clair as the warm sector boosts mixing
depths in the midst of a 50-55 knot low level jet. the low then
weakens friday night before peeling off into ontario by saturday
morning. cyclonic flow holds in place through the weekend, while
additional disturbances aloft keep wintry precipitation in play.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory from 10 am to 9 pm est friday for miz060>062-068>070-
075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale watch from 4 am est friday through friday evening for lhz361-
362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...dense fog advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...sc
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.