Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
205 am edt thu jul 2 2026

.what has changed...
there were no major changes with this forecast update. near
record heat expected again today. extreme heat warning for
northern ohio and heat advisory for northwest pennsylvania will
continue through friday evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) dangerous heat and humidity persist through the end of the week.

2) daily chances for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
return this evening onward with better probability this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a large summertime high pressure ridge or "heat dome" is
currently over the lower ohio valley this morning. this ridge of
high pressure will continue to bring very hot temperatures and
humidity across the region through friday. temperatures are
expected to be in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees once
again this afternoon. toledo and cleveland have the best chance
of either to break or tie their daily record high temperatures
for thursday, july 2nd. all the other daily climate sites will
be closer to their record highs, within a couple degrees. see
the climate section below for more info. the heat index will be
between 100 and 108 degrees later today. friday`s high
temperatures will be back in the middle to upper 90s and the
heat index between 100 and 107. the ongoing extreme heat warning
and heat advisory through friday evening looks good at this
time and no changes are needed. this ridge will weaken somewhat
and flatten out by the weekend as it shifts off the southeastern
u.s. temperatures will be slightly lower but still rather hot
in the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. by early and middle
of next week, temperatures will be closer to seasonable warm
weather for early july in the middle and upper 80s areawide.

key message 2...
the first chance for a few widely scattered showers and storms
may be possible this evening across far neoh and nwpa. the
chance for pops will be 20 to 30 percent at best. there will be
a little disturbance that will try to ride over the top of the
ridge of high pressure this evening which could spark off some
widely scattered convection. later on friday, the ridge of high
pressure will start to pull away allowing for the main
westerlies to shift southward and closer to the eastern great
lakes region. the chances for scattered convection will increase
by late friday afternoon into the overnight. spc has mentioned
our entire area for a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the
potential of isolated severe storms. the main threat will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail with any of the strongest
convection. we will continue to remain in that westerlies flow
aloft over the weekend which will bring off and on chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the max
heating of the afternoon and evening. a couple stronger storms
could be possible over the weekend as well. a lingering mid
level trough may hang over the eastern great lakes through the
middle of next week and bring the chance for daily pop-up
convection in the forecast. we will hold on to daily pops of 20
to 30 percent into early to middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr. few-sct cumulus formation in the daytime heating hours
fl035-050. southwest winds could gust 15-20kts fdy/tol, but
further east terminals should remain under 12kts. convective
chances possible, but after the 06z friday time frame.

outlook...there is a very low chance of thunderstorms thursday
night. greater potential for scattered storms friday through
sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each
day.

&&

.marine...
with high pressure to the south, pleasant marine conditions are
expected with southwest flow averaging 10 knots through the
period. there could be a lake breeze that develops east of
cleveland each afternoon, which would allow for minor shifts in
wind direction and brief 2 ft waves that would be short-lived.

&&

.climate...
very hot and humid weather is expected through friday. record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt friday for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt friday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
142 am edt thu jul 2 2026

.key messages...

- the extreme heat warning remains in effect area-wide through thursday
evening. highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices between
100 to 110 degrees are expected this afternoon and again
thursday.

- near record warm overnight lows in the mid 70s will offer little
to no relief at night.

- heat indices may exceed 100 degrees again on friday, but heat indices
will be dependent on extent of afternoon clouds and any
scattered showers and storms.

- highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for the 4th of july with up
to 60% chances for scattered rain and storms in the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm edt wed jul 1 2026

a strong upper level ridge continues to bring very hot and
humid conditions through at least thursday, possibly friday. as
surface high pressure strengthens over the southeast us,
southwest flow into our area continues to usher in very humid
air with dewpoints in the mid 70s currently. surface
observations show temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s now,
with temperatures likely climbing a few degrees higher this
afternoon for highs under mostly sunny skies. the extreme heat
warning remains in effect area-wide through sunset tomorrow.
daytime highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s this
afternoon and again thursday with peak afternoon heat indices
between 100 to 110 degrees both days. near record warm lows in
the mid 70s over the next few nights will offer very little to
no reprieve from the heat. due to the duration and intensity of
the heatwave, heatrisk will be maxed out at major to extreme
across the area today and again on thursday, meaning the heat
can impact anyone regardless of adequate cooling or hydration.
our forecast currently still has peak heat indices above 100
degrees again on friday, especially along and east of i-69.
there was collaboration today with neighboring offices as to
whether or not the extreme heat warning should be extended
through friday. the decision was made for our area to wait on a
decision due to potential for rain/storms on friday. lingering
cloud cover and any rain/storms in the area may limit peak heat
indices below criteria. there may end up being a scenario where
the eastern part of the area has the extreme heat warning
extended for friday and the western half has a heat advisory.

as the upper level ridge flattens and begins to break down on friday
and into the weekend, rain/storm chances return to our area just in
time for the 4th of july weekend. exact details are uncertain and
confidence is very low in exact timing/placement of rain/storms, but
we will have to monitor for complexes of storms (mcss) that ride the
periphery of the flattening ridge. model guidance is split but
chances for rain/storms could return as early as friday morning
depending on upstream convection. some models (especially the ecmwf
and gem) hint at a decaying mcs moving in from illinois friday
morning/afternoon. however, nbm probabilities only have about 40-50%
chances for measurable rainfall (0.01") in any 6 hr period on
friday. better confidence in convection arrives by the holiday
weekend since we will finally have a stationary front in the
vicinity to provide a source of lift for storms. as of right now, it
does not appear like july 4th will be a complete washout. however,
precipitation chances will likely be diurnal, favoring the afternoon
and evening timeframe for the highest pops of up to 60% on july 4th.
scattered showers and storms are possible on the 4th of july with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. while it may be slightly `cooler`
into early next week with highs in the 80s, the long term pattern
continues to favor above normal temperatures through mid july.
periodic chances for rain/storms next week as zonal flow aloft
continues.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 140 am edt thu jul 2 2026

widespread showers and storms continue early this morning along
an axis from southeast minnesota to the northern lake michigan
vicinity. mid level ridging across the ohio valley should hold
enough strength this morning to keep focus for showers and
storms well northwest of the terminals. however, may need to
watch progress of southeast progressing outflow boundary from
this convection, and if can reach as far south as the southern
great lakes. this outflow could kick off an isolated shower or
storm during the day today, but confidence in occurrence and
limited coverage still suggests omitting mention from tafs is
best course of action at this time. chances of showers and
storms may tend to increase late in this forecast valid period
this evening as mid level ridge becomes slightly more suppressed
and as another convectively enhanced impulse tops the ridge
across the corn belt. otherwise, cannot completely rule out some
brief mvfr vsbys in light shallow fog early this morning, but
vfr conditions should hold through the period. in similar
fashion to yesterday, peak mixing this afternoon should yield
southwest winds around 20 knots at ksbn where gradient should be
a bit more pronounced.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1152 pm edt wed jul 1 2026

.key messages...

- an extreme heat warning remains in effect through 8 pm thursday,
with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s and daily heat
indices at or above 105 degrees.

- a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms on thursday.

- friday will also be hot and humid with high temperatures in the
lower to mid 90s, but coverage of thunderstorms increases during the
afternoon and evening hours; a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms exists across most of southeast michigan friday.

- showers and thunderstorms will continue at times over the weekend
as a marginal severe risk persist on saturday; isolated flooding
will also be possible.

- a gradual cool down gets underway on saturday, with highs finally
dropping below 90f on sunday.

&&

.aviation...

outflow from thunderstorm activity across northern lower michigan is
slowly sagging south towards mbs late this evening. this may bring a
brief wind shift during the early morning hours at mbs. otherwise,
mostly clear skies overnight will give way to another sunny day with
ample heating and mixing on thursday. by about 16/18z, expect a
diurnal flareup of cumulus around 4-5kft with breezy southwest winds
yet again.

continued to maintain a dry forecast for all terminal, given the
uncertainty in thunderstorm development (timing and placement)
thursday afternoon through thursday night. most of the area looks to
become uncapped thursday afternoon, so it will be a matter of where
local forcing is in play. the going forecast is still too isolated
to warrant a prob30 or tempo mention for tsra, but may need to be
included in subsequent taf updates.

d21/dtw convection...there is an isolated thunderstorm potential for
the d21 airspace on thursday afternoon/night.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for thunderstorm potential thursday afternoon/evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 359 pm edt wed jul 1 2026

discussion...

the upper level pattern is evolving as anticipated today with 500 mb
height anomalies on the order of +10 to +12 dam in place over
southeast michigan. this heat dome stems from a governing
anticyclone now centered over the heart of appalachia, marked by a
central geopotential height of approximately 597 dam. although high
temperatures will likely come up a bit short today (mid 90s),
dewpoints have overachieved (upper 70s) which keeps heat indices
near forecast. widespread +100f his were already reached prior to
noon, and dewpoints have been slow to mix out this afternoon. no
changes to the excessive heat warning for the rest of today or
tonight.

a bowing segment of storms maintained form and intensity crossing
lake michigan and northern lower. the southern end of the line was
able to survive into the cwa, clipping bay and huron counties.
modified pops accordingly to account for what remains of the storms
testing the instability gradient. activity should exit into lake
huron by 21z. for tonight, lows should easily challenge record warm
minimums for july 2nd as readings only retreat into the mid or upper
70s. a low-end risk exists early thursday morning for storms over
the northern edge extending from upstream convection over wisconsin.
low confidence exists for another southerly push from an initial
eastward trajectory.

given the slight eastward drift in the longwave ridge, and a cluster
of upper lows/vortmaxes centered over northern ontario/southern
hudson bay, a broad region of enhanced westerlies positioned between
the features sags slightly southward over lower michigan thursday.
this leads to improvement in shear (+30 knots 0-6 km), more so for
the tri-cities and thumb regions. the cap should weaken with time
which supports chance pops across the rest of southeast michigan by
thursday evening, but cams are highly variable in ci. severe threat
will be highly conditional. should storms develop, sbcape values of
2-3 kj/kg will support rapid updraft development and
intensification. spc swody2 highlights a wind and hail threat across
the cwa. temperature-wise, the gradient will be a bit more defined
with lower 850 mb temperatures over the northern half than the
southern half of the area, but still expect area-wide apparent
temperatures back into the 100-105f range.

the airmass will gradually trend more favorably for convection into
the back half of the week and into the weekend as the humid airmass
stays locked in while subsidence wanes with the
weakening/retrograding ridge. models show potential for broader
coverage of storms friday afternoon and possibly overnight,
dependent on both the track/evolution of upstream mcss and timing of
the diurnal adjustments to instability. latest consensus model data
suggests potential remains for heat indices to break 100f again
friday. the main question will be whether to extend the current
excessive heat warning, or to add a heat advisory to the end. a
decision will likely be made before the expiration of the current
headline tomorrow evening.

deeper column moisture will support increasing rainfall rates over
the weekend, but the complexity of the mesoscale-driven environment
muddies any details on timing. weak surface low saturday night into
sunday as a shortwave trough helps guide a change in atmospheric
state. winds to flip northwesterly sunday with a chance for highs to
drop into the 80s.

marine...

a hot and humid air mass resides over the region today and through
the rest of the week. prevailing wind remains from the south and
southwest at 10 to 15 kt with gusts generally capped around or below
20 kt due to higher stability over the relatively cooler water. the
heat dome will maintain very low chances for precipitation for lake
st. clair and lake erie, but lake huron will reside near the edge of
the cap which offers potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms
tonight and thursday. isolated severe thunderstorms will be
possible, capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and
large hail. the cap migrates farther south by friday which brings
higher chances for storms to the rest of the region. a cold front
then sags south on saturday, bringing a wind shift to the north and
maintaining the potential for scattered to numerous showers and
storms.

climate...

daily records for this week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....ja
discussion...kgk
marine.......tf
climate......mv/kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.