Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
758 pm edt sun oct 11 2026

.what has changed...
drizzle and mist is expected to linger longer this evening into
tonight. record high temperatures are looking increasingly likely
tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) the remnants of isaias will move away this evening, but drizzle
and mist will linger through the first half of the night, along with
areas of fog.

2) record high temperatures are likely tuesday ahead of a cold front
that will bring showers and thunderstorms tuesday night into
wednesday.

3) briefly drier wednesday night into thursday before a strong cold
front brings rain, gusty winds, and the coldest air of the season
friday into saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the remnant low of isaias is centered over west
virginia this afternoon, while a weak mid/upper trough axis that has
been helping to steer the remnants is centered over the southern
great lakes and ohio valley. as the trough axis progresses east
tonight, the remnant low will be transported east into the mid
atlantic region before exiting offshore monday morning.

the bulk of the rain has shifted into central pa, but abundant low-
level moisture and some pva from the mid/upper trough overhead is
keeping bands of light showers and drizzle from north central ohio
through ne ohio and nw pa. this light shower activity and drizzle
will gradually pivot east this evening and tonight, but given the
amount of low-level moisture lingering beneath the trough axis, feel
that drizzle will be stubborn to end even after the actual rain
showers end. trended the forecast toward longer periods of drizzle
and mist gradually ending from west to east through 06z tonight, but
low clouds and patchy fog are likely all night. drying of the
boundary layer in the wake of the trough should gradually break up
the low clouds monday morning, and expect increasing sunshine by
afternoon as mid/upper ridging expands over the central and eastern
conus and surface high pressure strengthens across the appalachians
and se conus in response to deep mid/upper troughing progressing
further into the western conus. this will set up increasing warm air
advection to boost highs well above normal monday afternoon, with
upper 70s/low 80s in nw ohio and low/mid 70s in ne ohio and nw pa.

key message 2...
the warmth that starts monday afternoon will really
peak tuesday as the mid/upper ridge further amplifies over the
eastern conus ahead of the western trough evolving into a closed low
near the four corners region. strengthening warm/moist advection and
isentropic ascent combined with a mid/upper shortwave and surface
low crossing the central great lakes could drive a few showers north
of a retreating warm front monday night into early tuesday morning.
these could brush the lakeshore counties of northern ohio and nw pa,
but the bulk of any rain should be over lake erie and southern
ontario. impressive warmth is likely in the warm sector tuesday
afternoon, with probabilities increasing for record highs in parts
of the region as temperatures reach the mid 80s in nw and north
central ohio and upper 70s/low 80s in ne ohio and nw pa. the best
chance to exceed the records will be at ktol and kcle. see climate
section for details.

the ridge will start to flatten tuesday evening and night as a
northern stream mid/upper trough drops across the central and
eastern great lakes. this will push a cold front slowly south into
the area tuesday night, but the front will become quasi-stationary
late tuesday night into wednesday morning as the combination of
strong ridging to the south and energy emanating out of the
four corners closed low riding the boundary holds it up. a few
showers and thunderstorms could occur late tuesday afternoon and
evening in ne ohio and nw pa as forcing increases ahead of the
approaching shortwave and 110+ knot jet, but the bulk of the
rain will occur late tuesday night into wednesday as the
boundary gradually sags south and the energy from the west rides
along it. the sagging front and precip will keep temperatures
cooler wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s north and
low/mid 70s south.

key message 3...
the front will briefly push into the ohio valley
wednesday night and early thursday as canadian high pressure ridges
down from the upper great lakes leading to seasonably cool and drier
conditions. however, the front will quickly lift back north as a
warm front late thursday and thursday night ahead of a potentially
significant storm system. the old four corners cut off low will
attempt to phase with a strong northern stream mid/upper trough
diving into the northern plains and upper midwest thursday night and
friday, resulting in a rapidly deepening surface low crossing the
lower great lakes friday and strong cold frontal passage. there
remains uncertainty on the strength of this system and resultant
push of cold air in its wake due to differences in how much the
northern stream trough can phase with the old cut off low, but
ensemble guidance and general pattern recognition suggests at least
a seasonably strong fall storm system and the coldest air of the
season so far. widespread rain is likely friday followed by falling
temperatures late friday into saturday and lingering lake effect
showers. depending on the strength of this system, wind headlines
are certainly possible. slow moderation by sunday.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
the main impact/forecast challenge is primarily lingering low
ceilings tonight and monday morning, along with some patchy mist
or drizzle that may cause brief vis restrictions. ceilings have
been bouncing some but largely remain in the ifr to low mvfr
range. do want to caution that there will likely be some
continued "bouncing" of conditions beyond what can be depicted
within the tafs, but some general trends are expected. out west
at tol/fdy, ceilings have climbed to mvfr and should hold there
in the near term. the potential exists for a brief period of
partial overnight clearing, though guidance suggests any brief
partial clearing may quickly give way to a few more hours of ifr
conditions early monday. farther east (including all taf sites
from cle-mfd east) am generally expecting ceilings to hold
steady or lower a bit more through early monday, before
improvement to vfr from west to east late monday morning/early
afternoon. a subtle trough axis currently stretches from lake
erie into north central oh and will pivot east-southeast
overnight through most locations from cle-mfd points east. this
trough may be enough of a feature to bring some passing
sprinkles with lower ceilings and visibility, which was
included all taf sites from cle-mfd points east.

winds generally are out of a north to northeast direction this
evening, but will come around to the northwest tonight and then
more west-southwest monday. winds tonight will generally be
under 7 knots, increasing modestly to 6-12kt monday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible tuesday and wednesday in showers/
thunderstorms associated with a cold front.

&&

.marine...
winds on lake erie will continue to veer ne this evening then nw
tonight while decreasing to under 5 knots as the remnants of
isaias pull away. sw winds will then increase to 10-15 knots by
late monday as a low pressure system crosses the central great
lakes and warm front lifts across the lake. these sw winds will
further increase to 15-20 knots monday night and tuesday until
diminishing behind a cold front tuesday night and shifting nw.
light winds early wednesday will gradually give way to stronger
n winds of 10-15 knots wednesday afternoon, turning ne at 15-20
knots wednesday night and thursday as high pressure builds
across the upper great lakes.

after a brief lull in winds, a strong storm system looks to
impact the great lakes friday into saturday. gales are possible
with this system, but there remains uncertainty on the exact
track and strength which will be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.climate...
temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
northwest and north central ohio on tuesday. records for october 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.


date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sullivan
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
725 pm edt sun oct 11 2026

.key messages...

- warm on monday and tuesday with highs generally in the 80s.

- low chances (10-30%) for a few showers and storms along and
north of the michigan stateline monday night.

- additional chances (40-70%) of showers arrives tuesday night
through thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 pm edt sun oct 11 2026

ridging through the column will provide a trend toward mostly clear
skies and light winds tonight. this may allow for patchy fog/stratus
development overnight into early monday, especially over ne in and
nw oh where lows will likely dip below xover values.

return flow and associated strong waa on the backside of the exiting
ridge will set the stage for breezy ssw winds and highs into the 80s
monday into tuesday. a low amplitude, mid level impulse has
consistently been modeled to track east through the upper midwest
and central great lakes monday night into tuesday morning.
associated theta-e advection and slight graze of mid level ascent
support retaining low chances (10-30%) for a few showers/storms in
the far north during this time.

a west to east oriented frontal zone tied to the aforementioned
shortwave sags south into the area later tuesday afternoon into
wednesday. an additional surge of deeper moisture and several upper
level waves ejecting east out of an intermountain west upper low
likely activates the front with increasing rain/embedded thunder
chances. highest pops (60-70%) favor areas south of the us 30
corridor. cooler, yet, still above normal temps otherwise into
wednesday.

ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to differ on
whether a stronger storm system develops into the great lakes in
response to potential phasing (or not) of southern and northern
stream waves thursday into friday. this brings inherent uncertainty
regarding precip chances and the magnitude of winds and caa behind a
cold front friday into saturday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 719 pm edt sun oct 11 2026

clouds from the remnants of hurricane isaias have been slow to
depart and are still over kfwa. there is now low confidence that
it will completely clear out before fog sets in later tonight. winds
will be light and variable overnight, and with moisture
lingering near the surface and mostly clear skies, patchy dense
fog is expected to develop. mvfr/ifr visibilities will therefore
be possible at kfwa. despite clear skies and light winds also at
ksbn, do not expect much fog since they missed out on the recent
rain and remain very dry. could see some haze though closer to
morning.

as strong high pressure builds over the region on monday,
southwest winds will increase, and could gust to around 20 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
645 pm edt sun oct 11 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions tonight with some areas of fog possible.

- much warmer conditions monday with highs near 80 degrees.

- well above average temperatures continue monday night and tuesday,
with a chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms.

- more typical fall weather mid to late week.

&&

.aviation...

while there has been some improvement in ceilings heights across
portions of se mi late this afternoon, recent guidance indicates
that ample moisture residing under a low level inversion will either
allow some degree of stratus redevelopment or will sustain the
existing stratus into the evening hours. the inversion will erode
overnight due to the advection of warm air in the low levels. this
will result in a clearing trend of the lower clouds, leaving a
shallow near surface stable layer. relatively high boundary layer
moisture will result in the potential for fog development during the
09z to 13z time frame, mainly across the metro detroit terminals
where the surface wind speeds are expected to be weaker. rapidly
increasing winds will erode morning fog as mixing depths build. low
level dry air advection will support vfr conditions through monday
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening. low overnight.

* low in visibilities and/or ceilings aob 1/2sm and/or 200 feet
monday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt sun oct 11 2026

discussion...

moist low level easterly flow entrenched locally late this
afternoon, maintained within the outer influence of the remnant
circulation of post-tropical cyclone isaias now ejecting northeast
across the southern ohio valley. any lingering pockets of light
showers/drizzle will end as meaningful mid level deformation
associated with this system vacates and moisture depth diminishes,
leaving simply extensive stratus heading into the evening period.
low to mid level ridging will then build into the region through the
night. combination of increasing magnitude of dry air advection and
general subsidence will support a clearing sky from northwest to
southeast. favorable environment will then emerge for some degree of
fog development late tonight. forecast will continue to highlight
patchy mention, but a more focused region could materialize should
winds fully decouple. overnight low temperatures will remain mild
for mid-october, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s across most
locations, with upper 50s held in the metro detroit urban corridor.

higher magnitude upper ridging briefly takes residence during the
early week period. this occurs as departing surface ridging affords
a shift toward low level southwest flow, offering a period of strong
warm air advection starting monday. a moderately mixed profile under
high insolation potential as 850 mb temperatures push into the mid
teens will translate into well above normal temperatures. highs
monday arriving in the upper 70s to lower 80s most locations. very
mild conditions persist into monday night with temps holding in the
60s, as a frontal boundary eases southward into the northern great
lakes. meaningful nocturnal window for moist isentropic ascent will
bring potential for some shower production during the overnight
hours. mid level instability increases during this time, supportive
of an isolated thunder mention. temperatures will remain a solid 10-
15 degrees above average tuesday as 850 mb temps peak near 18c ahead
of an inbound cold front. weak cold front slips through late
tuesday, which could offer a lower end probability for shower
development although greater ascent will remain positioned to the
north.

shortwave energy working across the lingering elevated frontal slope
will bring another opportunity for light rain development tuesday
night into early wednesday, with greater potential with southward
extent. otherwise, pattern transitions back to more seasonable
conditions for the latter half of the work week as transient low to
mid level ridging lifts through. potentially unsettled conditions
thursday night into friday as general split flow yields an influx of
moisture from the south with the possibility of interaction with a
more dynamic wave ejecting southeast. this northern stream wave will
provide a more noteworthy downward adjustment in temperature for
next weekend. highs likely parked in the 50s, with lows pushing well
into the 30s.

marine...

remnants from hurricane isaias will depart into new england this
evening which will be followed by a brief ridge of high pressure
building in over the great lakes. this will support lighter winds
across the region through tomorrow night. a weak low pressure system
will then move from the central plains into northern lower michigan
tomorrow into tuesday morning. some slightly elevated wind gusts
around 20 knots will be possible across northern lake huron with the
arrival of this system, along with rain and isolated thunderstorm
chances. a cold front will then push through on wednesday morning,
bringing additional chances for precipitation. northwest flow in the
wake of the front will support gust potential aoa 20 knots across
northern lake huron through wednesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mr
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.