Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
742
fxus61 kcle 111148
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
748 am edt thu jun 11 2026

.what has changed...
issued a heat advisory for all counties in ohio as hot and humid
conditions persist.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through friday
before a cold front pushes across the region on friday.
precipitation chances return as another cold front moves through
the region on sunday.

2) hot and humid conditions ahead of the cold front with little
overnight relief anticipated. cooler weather behind a cold front
friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
warm and unstable air mass remains in place under a mid/upper level
ridge. some remnant showers and elevated thunderstorms will glide
east across the region through this morning, but expecting most
of the daytime hours to be dry for a majority of the forecast
area. can`t rule out pop up showers and thunderstorms,
particularly in southeastern zones, this afternoon and evening.
the main show comes later this evening as a decaying mcs will
track east towards western zones. most hi-res cams have the mcs
petering out as it reaches the i-75 corridor tonight between 11
pm thursday and 1 am friday. spc does have the entire area under
a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and the i-75 corridor under a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. the primary
severe weather hazard will be damaging wind gusts with a
secondary hazard of large hail, particularly in the slight risk
area.

the mcs will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate as it
pushes east across the forecast area during the overnight hours
tonight. storms may reinvigorate along the ohio/pennsylvania
border friday afternoon. spc has pulled our entire area out of
any severe weather outlook for friday as storms will likely
develop just east of our cwa border. dry weather is expected for
the remainder of friday into saturday as high pressure builds
overhead behind a surface cold front. another cold front will
sink south across the region on sunday bringing increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend and
begin next week.

key message 2...
another day of very hot and humid conditions before the
aforementioned cold front glides east on friday. have issued a heat
advisory from noon to 8 pm for all ohio counties in the cwa. peak
heat index values will reach 100f this afternoon as high
temperatures rise into the upper 80s to low 90s coupled with dew
points in the low 70s. peak heat indices will largely range between
95-100f this afternoon. some spots in the advisory may not "reach"
the 100f criteria, but heat-related impacts remain possible.

temperatures fall to the upper 70s to low 80s on friday behind the
warm front. high pressure and southerly return flow on saturday will
allow for highs to warm into the mid to upper 80s. cooler behind
sunday`s cold front with highs in the mid 70s through the middle of
next week.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along
the remnant boundary of a decayed mcs this morning into this
afternoon. there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty on
precipitation placement/coverage, but at this point it appears
that the best chance of showers/storms will be at
kmfd/kcak/kyng/keri late this morning into this afternoon.
kcle could experience a brief period of showers/storms before
18z. after a break in precipitation this evening, a decaying
complex of thunderstorms will move east into the area. the
strength and longevity of storms will likely rely on how
unstable the atmosphere is over the region (which will depend
on how things pan out this morning/afternoon), but at this point
it looks like the best chance of showers/storms will be at
ktol/kfdy after midnight with decreasing chances farther east
overnight.

as far as flight conditions go, vfr conditions are expected
outside of precip through tonight. any showers/storms will be
capable of producing non-vfr conditions in lower ceilings and
reduced visibilities in moderate to heavy rainfall. low-end vfr
ceilings are likely and mvfr ceilings are possible early friday
morning.

winds will be out of the southwest at 8 to 14 knots with
periodic gusts to 15 to 25 knots through the taf period. as
mentioned above, wind gusts will likely be stronger in
thunderstorms. llws will need to be considered if gusts struggle
to mix to the surface early friday morning.

outlook... non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms sunday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected on lake erie this
morning with winds briefly diminishing this afternoon into this
evening. southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots as a
cold front approaches from the west after midnight tonight. the
highest waves will likely be focused offshore so small craft
advisories likely won`t be needed unless winds trend a bit
higher, but there is be a moderate risk of rip currents from
cuyahoga county east as winds become a bit more westerly early
friday. periodic thunderstorms are possible through early friday
and winds and waves could be higher in thunderstorms.

winds will diminish friday afternoon and expect relatively light
west/southwest flow through the daytime hours saturday before
southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots ahead of an
approaching cold front late saturday into sunday. small craft
advisories and beach hazards statements may be needed as
elevated winds shift onshore behind the cold front sunday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 111023
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
623 am edt thu jun 11 2026

.key messages...

- high temperatures around 90 degrees coupled with humid
conditions are expected again today so a heat advisory has
been issued for the area. if venturing outside, be sure to
take breaks and stay hydrated.

- chances for severe weather exist again tonight. damaging wind,
hail, heavy rain, and a few tornadoes are possible with this
severe weather threat.

- next chances for showers and storms return saturday night with
another cool frontal passage, bringing cooler temperatures
into low/mid 70s to lower 80s along with decreased humidity
across the area sunday and monday.

- a moderate swim risk exists along the southeast lake michigan
shoreline today and friday as waves reach 2 to 4 feet.
breaking waves and currents are expected. stay away from
dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls, and river outlets.
always have a flotation device with you in the water.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 337 am edt thu jun 11 2026

a shortwave rounds the base of the mid level trough in the west and
approaches the area this afternoon and tonight. as it does so, the
outflow boundary from yesterday`s storms situated across our areas
serves as a dividing line between higher and lower dew points than
70 degrees. the gfs even keeps the better 850 mb airmass south of
that boundary. the daytime appears to be enough to push the boundary
farther north to allow for another warm and humid airmass that does
two things:

#1, it makes for another day where a heat advisory could be
necessary as heat indices exceed 100 degrees east of i-69 and other
areas have heat indices surpass the mid 90s. there`s some question
how high dew points get west of in-15 (the hrrr/rap/nam get to 75
degrees) and there`s also some question about when that boundary
lifts northward to allow warmer temps into the area. given this is
now the second day of such heat indices as well as the information
above, thought it prudent to issue another heat advisory across the
area.

#2 is that we have a very unstable airmass across the area with the
nam showing greater than 4000 j/kg of sbcape so the atmosphere is
expected to have plenty of instability in the warm sector. the one
interesting thing is that the nam still shows the outflow boundary
across the area as late as late afternoon. this could be interesting
for surface based cells if that remains the case as this tends to be
more conducive to rotating cells if they can become rooted to the
boundary. there is some question about if cells can erupt out in
front of the main squall line and if that does happen perhaps that
could eat away at the heat and instability for storms as well as for
the heat advisory. nam and hrrr bufkit soundings indicate we`re
capped in the morning. we finally get the warmer 700 mb airmass (and
better 7+ c/km mid level lapse rates) after 18z and this could help
with hail and damaging wind potential. that thermal boundary is
north into mi by the time the cold front arrives according to the
nam. 30+ kts of effective shear arrive with the cold front, but 200
to 400 units of effective helicity arrive in areas west of in-15 by
late afternoon. this would help with embedded circulations within
the squall line and make this more of a qlcs. given the lack of pre-
frontal cells forecast as well as the progressive nature of the
squall line, would think there would be a lower chance for flooding,
but the atmosphere is so moist with the 70 degree dew points and 850
mb dew points above 10c that it cannot be completely taken off the
table with this convective environment. the squall line looks like
it should be through the area by 3 to 4 am.

friday looks drier (50 degree dew points) and cooler (highs around
80 degrees), but as the wave that causes our thursday night storms
pushes northeastward, another wave dives southward from canada and
picks up some moisture from our south and west. as the plume swings
through saturday night, dew points in the upper 60s allow for mucape
values between 1500 and 2000 j/kg. storms are likely elevated at
this point given the formation of a low level inversion on nam and
gfs soundings, but mid level lapse rates could reach 6.5 c/km for a
period so perhaps some hail could form. we could probably also eek
out some heavy rain given the moist profiles. i`m initially
skeptical of a damaging wind threat with this, but things could
change. spc has put the area in a marginal risk of severe weather
for this period.

the upper low still remains across eastern canada during the next
work week and so while we look drier and a little cooler, it doesn`t
look like another prolonged dry period. in fact, there`s some model
confluence on rain by tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 623 am edt thu jun 11 2026

another warm and humid day that starts with some scattered to broken
low cloudiness around. otherwise, we`ll be waiting until likely
after 00z for our chance for thunderstorms to arrive to the area.
these look to be intense with enough moisture in the atmospheric
column to produce ifr conditions or worse so will put that into a
prevailing group as confidence is at least medium that it comes
through at sbn. this is expected to have damaging wind with it
and may have embedded tornadic circulations. this moves through
the area by 7 or 8z. there`s lesser confidence downstream at fwa
so have gone with low mvfr there. drier conditions follow this
system for friday. we`ll also have some gusty winds to 25 kts
ahead of the line this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory from noon edt /11 am cdt/ today to 8 pm edt /7
pm cdt/ this evening for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 111118
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
718 am edt thu jun 11 2026

.key messages...

- next round of rain moves through the area between now and 8 am.
there is a slight chance of thunder with this band.

- a heat advisory is in effect again today for areas south of m-59.
heat indices peak near 100 degrees this afternoon.

- there is a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms
tonight, mainly between 8 pm and 3 am. damaging winds, large hail,
and spin-up tornadoes are all possible.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a weak area of showers and associated mid cloud will pass through
southeast michigan this morning. so far the bulk of this area has
stayed in vfr. trailing this area will be potential for some lower
mvfr, possibly ifr, ceiling development as low level moisture
remains high. daytime heating should eventually lift these ceilings
into vfr for the afternoon as another round of respectable daytime
cumulus is expected. a line of storms is then expected to develop
upstream and move across the terminal corridor between 02z and 06z
tonight. there is potential for this line to be weakening as it
arrives, so will go with tempo groups over a prevailing tsra for
now. cold front will eventually sweep through early tomorrow morning
leading to gusty winds and a wind shift out of the w to wnw.

d21/dtw convection... .

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling aob 5000 feet this morning and afternoon.

* moderate for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 419 am edt thu jun 11 2026

discussion...

isolated thunderstorm activity over the past hour or so has since
exited into ontario. more cohesive rain potential is on its way as
remnants of an mcs move across southern michigan this morning, with
the northern edge of the rain shield right along the i-69 corridor.
qpf amounts with this morning rainfall generally hold under a half
inch before exiting the area after 12z (8am).

hot and humid conditions return for the daytime hours, with heat
indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in the urban footprint.
mid-level height rises are not as aggressive as yesterday given
convective perturbations from this morning, while convection has
also cleared out low level moisture and has created quite a bit of
cloud debris upstream. these factors create a more uncertain
temperature/dewpoint forecast for the afternoon, with most areas
likely to see heat indices capped in the mid to upper 90s (temps in
the upper 80s-low 90s). the exception is the urban detroit footprint
where there is still an opportunity for the heat index to reach 100
degrees. opted for a heat advisory for these areas despite borderline
heat index values given major risk for heat-related impacts (nws
heatrisk tool) and wet bulb globe temperatures in the low 90s. dry
conditions expected through most of the day as ongoing convection
pushes the instability reservoir further south of the state line.

attention turns to the severe weather threat late evening and
overnight (roughly 8pm-3am). storms begin well upstream near low
pressure that is currently over kansas. this low will lift northeast
throughout the day, in phase with a negatively tilting pv anomaly
carving across the northern plains. the strong synoptic forcing
overlaps an area of impressive theta-e advection, initiating
convection this morning that quickly grows upscale into a squall
line reaching se michigan late this evening. most of the instability
currently over the midwest/great lakes is getting cleared out by the
mcs moving through missouri and illinois. this means instability
will need to be restored across the entire region ahead of the line
for it to survive this far east. the poleward motion of the surface
low helps this process, with most models bringing the warm
front/instability axis well into se michigan this evening. one thing
to watch will be convective initiation along the front, similar to
what we saw yesterday where isolated cells were able to break the
cap ahead of the main line.

should see the line accelerate into the instability plume through
the evening, with most models placing it on our doorstep between
9pm-midnight. at this point it will have a very mature cold pool,
which should be capable of surviving any weak nocturnal surface
inversion, especially earlier in the night. if the line is able to
maintain its full strength, this could be a high-impact severe
weather event with potential for bowing segments of 70+ mph straight-
line winds and embedded tornadic circulations. this is supported by
a strong low level jet (40-50 knots) and impressive 0-1km srh/low
level hodograph curvature. se michigan is on the eastern fringe of
the enhanced risk, given the tendency for storms to fall apart/become
elevated overnight. most hi-res models show the line decaying as it
moves across se michigan, similar to what we saw yesterday, but with
low predictability as to exactly when/where/if the line begins to
weaken.

this line of convection will be driven by a strong cold front that
sweeps across the area early friday morning. sharp moisture gradient
and isentropic downglide behind the frontal passage brings an abrupt
end to rain chances with skies quickly clearing around friday
morning. cooler temperatures prevail with highs friday around 80
degrees. slight warming trend saturday under a brief period of warm
advection ahead of another cold front saturday night. this system
brings the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms, followed
by an even milder airmass early next week with temperatures capped in
the 70s.

marine...

rain and a few thunderstorms this morning will exit the area around
12z (8 am local) in favor of drying conditions for most of the
daylight hours. southwest flow holds in place ahead of a strong cold
front that will approach the great lakes late tonight into early
friday morning. this is associated with a low pressure system that
reaches the straits around 00z tonight. the cold front brings a line
of strong to severe thunderstorms across the great lakes, with
potential for wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and large hail.
this front will pass through early friday morning, bringing an
uptick in westerly winds in its wake as well as a brief period of
drier conditions to start the weekend.

hydrology...

a moisture-rich environment remains in place today with additional
opportunities for rain this morning and again late this evening and
overnight. progressive nature of expected rain and thunderstorms
generally limits widespread flooding concerns, although heavy
downpours with rainfall rates over an inch per hour will be possible.
localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but is mostly confined
to low-lying, urban, or flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for miz069-
070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt friday
for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......mv/drk
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.