Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
846 pm est mon jan 26 2026

.what has changed...
based on latest trends in observations and nwp model guidance,
made the following changes to our forecast: decreased forecast
cloud cover through the first several predawn hours of tuesday
morning; decreased forecast low temperatures slightly for early
tuesday morning. please see key messages and discussion for
further details.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake-effect snow across the cleveland metro and snowbelt
will wind down from west to east this evening into tonight as
snow showers occurring farther inland also exit, leaving mainly
dry weather across the area for tonight.

2) minimum wind chills of -20 to -30 degrees are in the
forecast tonight into early tuesday. an extreme cold warning
remains in effect for the entire area until 11 am tuesday.

3) light snow is expected areawide on tuesday, with lake-
enhanced snow producing slightly higher snow accumulations
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. some blowing
snow is also likely due to wind gusts of 25-35 mph, especially
west of the i-71 corridor tuesday morning. the light snow
accumulations and blowing snow may result in travel impacts.

4) prolonged cold is expected through the weekend creating
elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.
additional cold weather headlines will be needed.

5) generally limited precipitation chances after tuesday

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

light to locally moderate lake-effect snow has been ongoing amid
west-northwest flow from lorain and northern medina counties
points east across northeast oh much of today and has expanded
east into northwest pa this afternoon. this snow is driven by
some synoptic lift and moisture associated with a shortwave
moving through this afternoon, shoreline convergence and
upslope, and limited but still-present fluxes off the icy lake.
the snow is not particularly intense but is very efficient/
high-ratio, and has been causing some roadway accumulations when
it`s been more intense. this lake effect is not going to last
too much longer, with a notable downtrend expected through this
evening as the shortwave moves east and low-level ridging builds
in. it`s possible a few spots see another inch or two of fluffy
snow late this afternoon into this evening. for now the winter
wx advisory expires at 4 pm, and it will be a "game time
decision" regarding if part of that needs to be extended at all.

outside of the snowbelt, some very modest low-level instability
is combining with weak synoptic lift from the shortwave and
moisture from lake michigan to generate flurries and a few snow
showers. this activity has increased early-mid afternoon across
the akron/canton and youngstown areas as the shortwave moves
through and is beginning to diminish farther west. overall,
this activity is also expected to end through this evening,
leaving a dry rest of the night across the area. there will be a
short window for some clearer skies tonight before clouds
increase from the northwest into early tuesday morning.

key message 2...

there has been little change to the temperature, wind, and wind
chill forecast for tonight into early tuesday. while conditions
aren`t ideal for radiational cooling, a period of relatively
lighter winds through the first half of tonight and a window of
clearer sky (especially outside of any lingering lake effect
clouds) over our fresh and deep snowpack will support low
temperatures between about 2f and -8f, with the coldest values
across our southern and southeastern counties. winds will shift
to southwesterly overnight and increase to 12-22 mph (strongest
west of the i-71 corridor) late tonight into early tuesday.
this all yields minimum wind chills tonight in the range of
about -20f to -30f prior to sunrise. thus, extreme cold warning
criteria (wind chills of -25f or colder) are expected to be
reached in a large portion of our cwa. note: the prolonged
frigid conditions support an increased risk of infrastructure
damage (such as burst pipes and dead batteries).

key message 3...

a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex will swing southeast
through the great lakes tonight and tuesday. in response at the
surface, a weak surface low will track through the upper great
lakes. a warm front extending from this low will lift into the
area tuesday morning, quickly followed by the low`s trailing
cold front late tuesday afternoon and evening. these features
will help bring snow chances and gusty winds to the local area.

mid-level warm air advection and isentropic lift will drive an
initial batch of snow that will spread in from the northwest
between ~5 am and ~9 am. much of the area stands a chance to see
a light amount of snow (up to an inch) with this initial batch
of snow, with potential for a few spots in northeast oh to see
an inch or two of snow through midday. this snow will not be
much, but with the cold will try to stick to roads and bring
some minor travel impacts. it will remain mainly cloudy behind
this initial batch of snow, with some continued weak warm air
advection in the low-mid levels supporting continued potential
for off/on flurries or light snow into the afternoon. snow
potential ramps back up later in the afternoon and into the
early evening along and ahead of the cold front. as the front
moves through, the combination of low-level convergence with the
front itself and weak instability in the lowest ~7k feet may
support some briefly moderate to heavy snow showers/squalls...
particularly from lorain county points east across the snowbelt,
where limited fluxes off the lake combined with some shoreline
convergence/upslope will give activity along the front a boost.
the primary hazard with the cold front will be a short-lived
but quick visibility drop and accumulation of snow on roads
during the late afternoon or early evening, especially across
parts of northeast oh and northwest pa. overall snowfall tuesday
into tuesday evening will range from an inch or less across the
western half of the area to 1-3" across northeast oh and
northwest pa. while not enough for an advisory, do plan on some
snow accumulations on roads and slower travel at times.

outside of the snow accumulations, gusty winds will lead to
some blowing and drifting of our fresh and deep snowpack late
tonight and tuesday. southwest winds will turn gusty after 5 am
tuesday, with 25-35 mph gusts likely, strongest west of the i-71
corridor. winds will gradually veer more westerly tuesday
afternoon with gusts 20-30 mph continuing. some blowing and
drifting snow is likely area-wide, with the greatest impacts
west of the i-71 corridor where stronger gusts and a more open
landscape will encourage more blowing and drifting snow. folks
across northwest and north central oh west of i-71 should be
prepared for some impacts to the tuesday morning commute from
the blowing and drifting. would like more confidence in wind
gusts over 35 mph to go with an advisory for blowing snow
impacts, so held off, though it was considered and will at the
least add a mention to the hazardous weather outlook.

key message 4...

the continued story through this weekend will be our prolonged
stretch of very cold/frigid temperatures. after a very slight
"warm up" ahead of the cold front on tuesday, more frigid air
returns tuesday night. a re-enforcing shot of frigid arctic air
then arrives thursday night. while we won`t sniff freezing over
the next week or more, some moderation in the temperatures does
look likely by the start of next week.

in terms of daily highs...tuesday will reach the mid 10s to near
20, cooling to the upper single digits/lower 10s wednesday and
thursday, staying well into the single digits on friday, and
gradually moderating into the 10s this weekend. overnight lows
will generally range from 0 to -10 tuesday night to -5 to 5
wednesday night, before cooling to -5 to -15 thursday night.
widespread lows of 0 to -10 are expected friday night, with slow
moderation saturday and sunday nights. at the least, parts of
the area will likely get below 0 again on saturday night. the
deep snowpack will support low temperatures colder than guidance
if we see a night with favorable conditions for radiational
cooling (clear skies/light winds). currently, the most likely
nights for this to happen appear to be tuesday and thursday
nights, with some potential friday night as well if we don`t see
too many clouds. this ongoing and continued stretch of cold
ambient temperatures averaging below 16 degrees will bring
increased risk of infrastructure impacts due to the cold, such
as burst pipes, water main breaks, and dead batteries. the
prolonged nature of the cold will also pose a continued and
increasing risk of exposure to more vulnerable populations.

additional cold weather headlines will be needed beyond the
current extreme cold warning. keeping in mind that advisory
criteria is a wind chill or ambient temperature of -15 to -24,
with a warning criteria of -25 or colder, most nights will be
close to or in the range for an advisory from tuesday night
through saturday night. there is some potential for warning-
level cold thursday night into early friday. these cold wind
chills bring risk for frostbite and hypothermia for those who
are outside without proper cold weather gear, including pets.

key message 5...

with a frozen lake and very cold, dry synoptic weather pattern,
only small chances for light snow exist beyond tuesday`s system.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
aloft, an e`ward-moving ridge axis approaches and then crosses
our region through 12z/tues. thereafter, a se`ward-moving
trough axis approaches and then traverses most of our region
before it nears the eastern border of our area by 00z/wed. at
the surface, the ridge continues affecting our region as a
reinforcing cold front approaches from the north-central united
states and vicinity. this front should sweep se`ward through
our region between ~19z/tues and 00z/wed. behind the front,
another ridge builds from the north-central united states and
vicinity. ahead of the front, our regional surface winds trend
sw`erly to w`erly around 10 to 15 knots and should gust up to 20
to 25 knots at times, especially after ~12z/tues. behind the
front, w`erly to wnw`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots, gusting
up to 25 knots, are expected.

ahead of the cold front, isolated to broken low-level clouds
with bases near 2kft agl are expected. lingering and light
lake-effect snow (les) should stream generally e`ward from lake
erie and impact far-ne oh and nw pa, including keri, through
~06z/tues. mvfr ceilings and mainly mvfr visibility are
expected with the les. the les should then shift offshore our
region after ~06z/tues as mean low-level flow backs from w`erly
to sw`erly. widespread light snow and associated mvfr
ceilings/visibility preceding the aforementioned trough axis
aloft should overspread our region generally from northwest to
southeast between ~10z/tues and ~14z/tues. in addition, a band
of steady to heavy snow with ifr or worse visibility should
accompany the cold front passage. behind the front, mvfr
ceilings are expected with primarily dry weather and vfr
visibility. however, les showers should stream generally se`ward
from lake erie and impact much of ne oh and nw pa, including
kcle, kyng, and keri. visibility as low as mvfr is expected with
these les showers.

outlook...additional periods of snow with non-vfr are expected
through this saturday. greatest chances exist in ne oh and nw
pa, where periodic lake-effect snow downwind of mainly ice-covered
lake erie should occur.

&&

.marine...
winds will back to southwesterly tonight ahead of an approaching
clipper system and increase to 30 knots on tuesday. winds will veer
to westerly tuesday evening and then decrease tuesday night. winds
remain in the 15-25 knot range on wednesday as another trough
crosses lake erie. winds will tend to decrease to 10-15 knots from
thursday into the weekend as ridging tries to expand east into the
great lakes while remaining focused over the upper midwest.

lake erie is mostly ice covered, and the ice will continue to
thicken this week as well below normal temperatures continue across
the region. some shifting of the ice is possible during periods of
stronger winds which may close any remaining channels, especially
tonight.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme cold warning until 11 am est tuesday for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...extreme cold warning until 11 am est tuesday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/sullivan
aviation...jaszka
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
623 pm est mon jan 26 2026

.key messages...
- some patchy blowing and drifting snow continues through early
evening, but blowing and drifting snow is expected to become
more widespread late tonight into tuesday. peak wind gusts to
30 to 35 mph late tonight and monday will result in blowing
and drifting snow and pockets of significantly reduced
visibilities. some light snow accumulations of an inch or two
possible north of the toll road late tonight into tuesday.

- wind chills as low as 15 below to 25 below tonight. periodic
wind chills of around 15 to 20 below are also possible at
times through the remainder of the work week.

- additional lake effect snow chances wednesday through friday,
with higher chances on friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 237 pm est mon jan 26 2026

passage of a mid level wave is ushering in much drier low level air
to the great lakes/ohio valley this afternoon via backing low level
winds associated with an incoming low level ridge axis. the next
upstream upper trough is already inducing some weak cyclogenesis
across southwest ontario, and this wave and associated cold
front will be primary forcing mechanisms for additional snow
showers late tonight into tuesday. this event will feature much
less organization in terms of lake response given more shallow
lake induced instability depths and a more west-northwest fetch
in comparison to this morning. progressive synoptic forcing and
somewhat limited moisture profiles/limited fetch should limit
additional lake effect/enhancement accums to the 1 to 3 inch
range late tonight into tuesday evening, with greatest impacts
from falling snow in the 10- 16z period.

broad sfc pressure falls associated with low level waa will shift
across the great lakes overnight and eventually to the eastern great
lakes daybreak tuesday. tightening low level height gradient and
migration of these pressure falls should result in an abrupt
increase in southwest wind gusts overnight with a potential of some
30+ mph gusts in the 08-14z timeframe coinciding with rise/fall
couplet in isallobaric gradient and approach of low level cold
front. given the very dry/flurry nature and 20-30:1 snow to
liquid ratio of recent snow, in particular lake effect snow,
there is a concern for some blowing and drifting snow with
impacts likely across especially rural/open areas. upon
expiration of the winter weather advisories/warnings this
morning, did go ahead and include a winter weather advisory for
laporte/st. joseph/elkhart in in, along with berrien/cass/st.
joseph in counties for late tonight through tuesday evening.
this was done where additional light accumulations are maximized
and where confidence in impacts are the greatest. did issue an
sps for the remainder of the area highlighting this potential.

in terms of temperatures/wind chills, some good temp drops are
possible early evening as winds slacken for a brief time and where
mostly clear skies persist. temperatures should level out this
evening and then rise overnight as waa strengthens, but wind
chills will still be bitterly cold as increases in wind speeds
offset these leveling temp trends. no changes anticipated at
this time to the cold weather advisory.

the continuous stream of upper troughs dropping through
downstream portion of the eastern pacific ridge will continue
later wednesday with another push of low level cold advection
and more lake effect snow showers. lake parameters look even
more marginal with this wave with a bit more suppressed
inversion heights and depth of instability. perhaps best chance
of additional lake effect snow showers will be sometime late
work week with several disturbances rotating through broad
eastern conus negative upper height anomaly help to create more
favorable northerly trajectories.

additional periods of potential cold weather advisory conditions
will likely arise through remainder of the work week. present
indications in medium range guidance still point toward better
chance of at least some moderation in temps this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 622 pm est mon jan 26 2026

mid level ridging quickly gives way to another upper low and
associated vorticity by early tuesday morning allowing a return to
lake effect snow late tonight/early tuesday morning. for sbn, a
boundary moving through in the 7 to 9z window may cause an initial
burst of snow before lake effect snow gets going midday into the
afternoon. at this point, am most confidence in mvfr cigs, but there
is some lowered confidence due to trajectories about if the snow can
stay just to the north of sbn. fwa may get in on that initial burst
of snow from the boundary moving through, but it may also stay just
south of the lake effect snow. will also include mvfr cigs, but keep
lowered visby due to snow out of fwa`s tafs as well. the recent snow
and gusty winds do not take into account any blowing snow impacts to
terminals.

expect southwest winds to veer towards westerly mid to late morning.
gusts also pick up pretty quickly in the taf period, acquiring 23 to
28 kt gusts, slowly waning by the evening hours. will also have a
brief period of llws at the terminals as a warm front washes out
overhead, but with lapse rates building quickly tuesday am, will
also end it early.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ tuesday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
winter weather advisory from 1 am est /midnight cst/ to 7 pm
est /6 pm cst/ tuesday for inz005-103-104-203-204.
oh...cold weather advisory until 10 am est tuesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est tuesday for miz078>081-
177-277.
winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est tuesday for
miz078-079-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
705 pm est mon jan 26 2026

.key messages...

- frigid conditions monday through friday with wind chills
occasionally reaching 15 below zero or colder. a cold weather
advisory is in effect this evening through tuesday morning for the
first episode of dangerous cold wind chills.

- snow showers around on tuesday are expected to produce a dusting
to an inch of accumulation, with a low chance for isolated snow
squalls.

- a chance of light snow showers exists on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

mvfr to low vfr lake effect clouds containing flurries linger this
evening before a ridge tries to scatter these low clouds/flurries
early tonight. the next trough and frontal boundary will drive
through southeast michigan tomorrow first bringing an uptick in
snowfall roughly between 08z to 12z. light snow seems likely to
persist as the front follows the lead burst of snow. mvfr conditions
look most likely with the morning activity, but brief ifr conditions
will be possible. the surge of arctic air through the afternoon
brings greater activation of lake michigan resulting in greater
coverage of mvfr ceilings and scattered lake effect snow activity.
greatest focus for afternoon lake effect snow showers will be between
17z to 22z. southwest winds tonight will gust towards 25 knots as
the initial snowfall arrives then back towards the west while
remaining gusty to around 20 knots tuesday afternoon.

for dtw...next round of snowfall arrives early tuesday around 09-12z
with lower ceilings and visibilities most likely to mvfr, though
brief ifr will be possible. additional snow showers possible through
the afternoon and evening as the front passes through and lake
effect ramps up again.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet early tonight. high
by around 09z tuesday and through the afternoon.

* high in precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 308 pm est mon jan 26 2026

discussion...

sunny morning skies have given way to increasing cloud streaming in
off lake michigan. afternoon wind shift from northwesterly to
westerly allows lake effect snow showers that had been largely
confined to the west mi shore to release east over se mi. with winds
continuing to rotate to southwesterly by evening, lake moisture is
quickly cutoff confining main snow shower potential today to this
afternoon release. overall the scattered, transient nature will keep
accumulations minor with most areas seeing only a dusting to a few
tenths of an inch of new snow with half inch amounts confined to
heaviest snow showers.

southwesterly wind strengthen this evening into tonight in response
to another clipper sliding over the northern great lakes. this in
combination with lows falling into the single digits, including
negative single digits towards the ohio border where clearer skies
are favored for the first half of the night, drop wind chills into
the 10 to 20 below zero overnight into tuesday morning. midland and
far northern bay counties still expected to see the `warmest` wind
chills, holding in the negative single digits instead, due to
southwesterly flow drawing in the lake michigan plume. pre-frontal
trough works across southern lower mi between 08-12z bringing a
widespread area of light snow. models continue to struggle to
generate qpf with this feature owing to a general lack of available
moisture, both residual and advected, and subsequent shallow column
saturation. running forecast will continue to favor the higher pop-
lower qpf setup with accumulations up to around a half inch. the
actual arctic frontal boundary then drops through se mi between 14-
18z offering another window for more organized snow shower activity.
while high-res models suggest some degree of lake moisture
augmentation, soundings still show rather lackluster
moisture/saturation keeping coverage rather narrow along the frontal
boundary itself. can`t rule out an embedded snow squall or two with
modeled snow squall parameter values at or above 2 and column wind
fields still holding 30-40kts around fropa. additional accumulations
during this timeframe also forecast to only be up to around a half
inch at most. trailing lake effect potential looks to be brief and
limited, only really persisting through the evening, as winds
quickly weaken and turn west-southwest by night.

airmass following the front sees 850mb temps fall to -22c by tuesday
night setting up another round of low temps near 0f. weakening of
winds under 10mph however keeps feels-like temps more borderline for
cold weather advisory criteria (ie wind chills aob -15f) with the
current forecast ranging -10 to -15. given the advisory still in
effect for tonight and the current borderline forecast, no headlines
were considered with this package as further refinements are likely
as we get closer.

a better surge of arctic air is set to arrive thursday-friday as the
governing james bay upper low pivots into northern ontario drawing
the airmass due south over the great lakes. 850mb temps around
-25c expand over the central great lakes daytime thursday capping
highs for it and friday in the lower teens. thursday night likely
will be the coldest night of the week as actual temps fall 5 to 10
below zero. with temperatures this cold, any amount of wind will
bring feels-like temps towards the 15 to 20 below zero range with
another cold weather advisory looking likely into friday morning.

marine...

another arctic front will track through the central great lakes
tomorrow. winds become southwest tonight ahead of the front, with
gusts around 30 knots expected. a few brief gusts to marginal gales
over the open waters of central lake huron are also in play. snow
showers will accompany the front, transitioning to localized lake
effect activity tuesday evening and night over lake huron
with northwest winds leading to a lake superior-norther lake huron
connection. low level winds back to the west by wednesday morning
and look to be around 20 knots or less through the day, as yet
another arctic front and cold airmass arrives. very cold airmass
(negative mid 20s at 850 mb) will lead to lake induced trough on
thursday, with northerly winds kicking in to finish the work week.
wind speeds look to remain under 30 knots.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est tuesday for miz048-049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.