Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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815
fxus61 kcle 091154
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
654 am est mon nov 9 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
the probability of precipitation has increased a bit thursday
through saturday as models and ensembles slowly converge on a
solution, though details remain of lower confidence.

&&

.key messages...
1) outside of a few light showers into northwest pa today, dry
and somewhat mild weather is expected through midweek.

2) rain chances ramp up area-wide wednesday night and thursday.
cooler air flows in for friday and the weekend as a combination
of lingering wrap-around moisture and lake enhancement allows
shower chances to continue, especially from north central and
northeast oh into northwest pa. while snow may mix in at times
starting friday, impactful accumulations are rather unlikely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front crossing the area early this morning will exit to
the southeast by sunrise. chilly northwest flow is supporting
lake effect clouds into far northeast oh and northwest pa this
morning, with a few showers into pa where moisture is a bit
deeper. locations west/southwest of roughly a cleveland-canton
line will see a mostly sunny day. with the low-level ridge axis
not really pushing into northeast oh/northwest pa until this
evening some lake effect clouds will continue flowing in for
much of the day, with continued minor shower chances in
northwest pa. west-northwest winds will be a bit brisk,
especially through early this afternoon. there will be another
cold frontal passage on tuesday, though it`s expected to be a
dry frontal passage with little airmass change. highs in the 50s
with lows in the 30s/40s (largely above freezing) are expected
through wednesday. tuesday will be the warm day, when portions
of the area will likely get into the 60s.

key message 2...
a notable pattern amplification is still on track for the end of
the week across the eastern u.s., bringing a return to more
notable precipitation chances and the chilliest airmass we`ve
seen so far this fall...and potentially some wet snowflakes.

ridging will amplify from the eastern slope of the rockies
towards hudson bay starting on wednesday, with a shortwave
expected to round the amplifying ridge and drop into the great
lakes and ohio valley wednesday night and thursday. this
shortwave will bring an injection of polar (not arctic) air
into the eastern conus while interacting/phasing with another
wave in the sub-tropical jet thursday into friday. this will
lead to a large, deepening, slow-moving trough over the eastern
u.s. and southeastern canada late week into the weekend. ridging
over the north atlantic and a closed low near newfoundland,
often referred to as a -nao, further supports a deep and slow-
moving trough over the east that will be slow to exit. at the
surface, a cold front is likely to cross the area late wednesday
night or thursday as developing low pressure tracks through the
ohio valley. this developing low pressure is expected to really
begin deepening near the mid atlantic coast thursday night into
friday. chilly, moist cyclonic flow is expected to continue
behind the low beneath troughing aloft through saturday and
into sunday...there is improving agreement that surface ridging
will begin working in on sunday but that the ridge axis won`t
really move into the local area until sunday night or monday.

in terms of sensible weather, there are decent odds for rain
showers wednesday night into thursday as the front and
developing low move through the region. behind this, an
inverted trough axis is likely to extend towards the great lakes
beneath the deepening upper-level trough into friday. this will
keep synoptic precip going, especially across eastern portions
of the area. synoptic precip is likely to shift east friday
night into the weekend, though some amount of north-northwest
flow lake effect will continue and keep shower chances in the
forecast south-southeast of the lake until the surface ridge
axis works in sunday night or monday. compared to prior runs,
agreement among the non-gfs operational models and ensembles,
including ai versions, has increased a bit. the gfs, with a much
stronger and slower surface low that amplifies west of the
appalachians, is an outlier, with most other guidance coming
into better agreement on the general scenario laid out above,
with the low deepening well to our east but troughing
maintaining influence through the weekend. still, the phasing
of shortwaves and development of low pressure is something
guidance struggles with, so will watch for any adjustments back
towards a more amplified solution that could increase qpf
thursday and friday over the next few cycles. there`s also
improving agreement that some lake effect precip will continue
through the weekend, though the impression is that precip
should become more hit/miss and confined to areas downwind of
the lake this weekend as we gradually lose synoptic moisture.

am not expecting rain amounts or wind gusts to be especially
impactful with this system though it will be wet, somewhat
blustery, and generally unpleasant. the main talking point has
been potential for some snow across the area, as it would be the
first of the season. it should be too warm for the synoptic
precip to mix with snow through most of thursday night. 850mb
temperatures bottom out at -4 to -7c friday and saturday as
deeper cold works in, with moderation starting on sunday.
temperatures aloft can support snow by late thursday night or
friday, though the low-levels will be "warmer" given the lack of
arctic influence and modification from the still-mild great
lakes. mainly rain is expected though wet snow or graupel may
mix in at times, mainly away from the lake and during the
overnight/morning hours. notable accumulations are unlikely,
though will need to monitor the higher terrain for a low-
confidence light accumulation scenario if steadier precip/snow
can occur during an overnight or early morning period. in
general, highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s are likely late
week and into this weekend. the nbm low temperatures are
probably a bit too chilly thursday and friday nights, especially
farther east where clouds/precip will be more widespread.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
the main message for aviation weather with this morning`s taf
update will be vfr conditions expected for northern ohio
through the next 24 hours. lingering lake effect clouds will
continue around eri for today with borderline mvfr to vfr
ceilings expected. overcast to broken ceilings are also expected
for today at yng but ceilings should be 3500 feet or higher.
fair weather skies are expected for the rest of the area with
mostly clear conditions. passing clouds coming off the lake will
bring partly cloudy skies for cle and cak eastward into neoh
but also staying vfr today.

winds will be from the west or west-northwest today 7 to 11
knots for most of the area. around yng and eri, slightly higher
winds 10 to 15 knots will be expected this morning through the
afternoon, gusts up to 25 knots possible. winds will shift
south- southwesterly 5 to 10 knots by this evening.

outlook...non-vfr will be likely with low stratus ceilings and
periods of rain showers wednesday night through saturday. some
wet snow showers may also be possible late week along with gusty
winds up to 35 mph.

&&

.marine...
brisk northwest winds across the lake early this morning are
expected to gradually shift west-southwest and subside today as
brief high pressure builds in. rough conditions prompting small
craft advisories are ongoing early this morning, though will
gradually improve from west to east through the day. will
continue evaluating the end time of the advisories, as waves may
not fall below 4 feet before some of the current expirations.

winds increase back to 20-25kt out of the southwest tonight
ahead of a cold front, with winds veering more west-northwest on
tuesday behind the front. another round of small craft
advisories will be needed, though won`t be issued until later
this afternoon given the ongoing headlines. the next round of
rough conditions will be thursday and friday, with brisk
northeast winds shifting north-northwest behind developing low
pressure. more small craft advisories will be needed for this
period, with lower but non-zero potential for a marginal gale.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez144-
145.
small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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111
fxus63 kiwx 091118
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 am est mon nov 9 2026

.key messages...

- remaining dry with above normal temperatures today into tuesday.

- a chance for rain (40-70%) late wednesday into thursday.

- cooler weather and lingering chances for lake effect showers into
thursday night and friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 213 am est mon nov 9 2026

tranquil wx conditions and warmer than average temperatures will
persist today into tuesday on the southern fringes of broad west-
northwest flow aloft. a substantial pattern change then ushers in a
cooler and more unsettled pattern late wednesday through saturday as
an upper jet streak dives down into the ms valley, eventually
carving out an unseasonably strong 500 mb height minimum into the
great lakes and northeast. a leading, compact upper wave in this
transition still looks to send a developing frontal wave southeast
into the oh valley and central appalachians late wednesday into
thursday morning. dynamic nature to the wave and pacific origins
likely allows for an area of more substantial rain coverage,
though guidance still diverges regarding the track of the system
currently over the north pacific. opted to hold with nbm mid
chance pops for now given the lingering uncertainty.

moist and chilly cyclonic flow behind the departing low
pressure center will keep clouds and shower chances in the
forecast then into thursday afternoon and friday. this regime
also sets up a favorable lake effect response parallel to the
long axis of lake mi later thursday through as late as saturday
morning into far nw in/sw mi and ne il. progged thermal profiles
support rain as the primary precipitation type, though it does
seem likely that snowflakes may mix in at times inland. ridging
builds back sunday into the first half of next week with a
return to dry wx and warming temps.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 615 am est mon nov 9 2026

an area of patchy fog has developed around lagrange county in
indiana. otherwise, vfr conditions are expected for both taf
sites through this forecast period. light southwesterly winds
will become more southerly late this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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174
fxus63 kdtx 091057
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
557 am est mon nov 9 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend today and tuesday with highs around 60 degrees
tuesday.

- rain chances increase late wednesday into thursday, with an
unsettled pattern continuing into the weekend.

- a much colder airmass arrives thursday, triggering lake effect
rain and snow showers late thursday through saturday.

&&

.aviation...

a ridge of high pressure builds into the area today, promoting dry
and stable conditions. pockets of lower vfr ceiling at 3 to 4 kft
will gradually work out of the area from west to east, leaving just
increasing coverage of high cloud later in the day. northwest wind
holds at or below 10 kt and backs to southwest this evening as the
ridge axis passes through. a weak low tracks north of the great
lakes tonight, sending a dry cold front across the region early
tuesday morning. there is some signal for shallow boundary layer
moisture along the front but models generally favor ceiling-free
skies.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 402 am est mon nov 9 2026

discussion...

lake aggregate stratus and light shower activity associated with the
departing low continue to impact the northern saginaw valley and
thumb this morning. will see this moisture vacate se michigan
through the morning as high pressure drifts overhead and winds back
to the southwest. the backing winds initiate a period of warm
advection this afternoon that boosts h8 temperatures by roughly +5
c, although slightly displaced from peak heating so highs still only
reach the mid 50s. another low amplitude wave and weak front quickly
move through tonight, although the surface trough is shallow with
minimal impact on the thermal gradient. tuesday is another dry day,
with an even deeper layer of static stability than today. this
affords plenty of sunshine and full realization of the warm
advection to bring highs into the low 60s.

the back half of the work week becomes more unsettled, driven on the
large scale by amplification of the geopotential height field.
longwave troughing becomes established across eastern conus, with
the bulk of height falls occurring wednesday as a pacific wave
ejects out of the intermountain west. the ensemble envelope is still
clustered into a few different solutions, depending on if the
surface low takes a direct path toward se michigan or dives south
across the ohio valley. both solutions generate rain opportunities
for se michigan, although the latter is associated with elevated
frontal forcing and would likely result in a narrower area of
precipitation. nbm chance pops are reflective of the uncertainty,
including some of the dry solutions as well where the low tracks
even further south across the tennessee valley.

higher confidence item with this setup is the strong cold advection
that follows thursday into the weekend. highs during this timeframe
will be in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. coldest
morning looks to be saturday, corresponding to the core of the
thermal trough settling overhead. the strength of cold advection
will also activate lake moisture flux behind the low, with northerly
flow showing a convergent signal across the major axis of lake huron
especially friday. even with above freezing temperatures, dewpoints
hovering near 32 f and wet bulb zero heights between 1.0-2.0 kft agl
mean snowflakes cannot be ruled out especially if higher intensity
rates develop.

one of the key features of this time period will be a deep upper low
that anchors over quebec, causing any inbound shortwaves to shear
out and fragment as they encounter the sharp deformation zone on the
western flank of the low. this causes each impulse to deflect south
into the upper midwest/great lakes region, where any phased or well-
timed impulse could provide enough synoptic ascent to enhance the
lake effect. this equates to an unsettled precipitation forecast
thursday into the weekend even for interior portions of lower
michigan.

marine...

low pressure over western quebec and its cold front exit the central
great lakes early this morning. cold advection slowly wanes,
although favorable mixing depths above relatively warm lake waters
may allow a few morning gusts to approach gale-force for the central
lake huron waters. higher winds and waves will be slower to decline
across the southern huron nearshore zones, supporting an extension
of small craft advisories until later today. occasional wave heights
will hold well above 4 feet into the midday hours. the pattern
quickly shifts and becomes more stable as high pressure briefly
builds in later today, leading to backing southwesterly. troughing
returns tuesday as the next clipper brushes the northern shores of
lake superior, with its attendant cold front passing through and
shifting winds toward the wnw. note that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. some potential exists for additional
small craft advisories. high pressure then returns tuesday night
into wednesday with weaker winds and lower wave heights.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...mv
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.