Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
303
fxus61 kcle 090716
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
316 am edt sun aug 9 2026

.what has changed...
a day 1 spc marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather has been
expanded through the entire area tonight, and a slight risk (2 of 5)
has been added to nw ohio. a day 1 wpc slight risk (1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall has been slightly expanded into more of nw ohio
tonight, and a day 3 slight risk for excessive rainfall has been
expanded to most of the area tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) briefly quiet and less humid today followed by multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms tonight through wednesday. confidence is
low on the timing, location, and intensity of each round of storms,
but rainfall totals could add up in some areas, and some of the
storms could produce severe weather.

2) turning gradually drier, cooler, and less humid wednesday night
through saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak cold front will continue to settle south
toward the ohio river this morning as weak surface high pressure
builds across the southern great lakes. this will allow dew points
to run about 10 degrees cooler today making for noticeably less
humid conditions, but temperatures will remain very warm with highs
in the mid/upper 80s again.

the well advertised very active pattern will begin tonight as the
surface high drifts east and allows the front to lift back north as
a warm front in response to a mid/upper shortwave dropping into the
upper midwest. this shortwave will be one of many that will progress
through a wnw mid/upper flow pattern between a broad ridge
covering the southern plains and mid mississippi valley and
broad trough over southern canada and the great lakes. each
shortwave will interact with the frontal boundary as it becomes
quasi-stationary across the southern great lakes and ohio
valley regions, bringing multiple rounds of convection tonight
through wednesday. unfortunately, the forecast has become even
more uncertain in terms of the timing, location, and intensity
of each round of convection since each thunderstorm complex
(mcs) will move the location of the front and also lay down
outflow boundaries which will affect the evolution and track of
future complexes. despite the high uncertainty and resulting low
confidence forecast, attempted to describe some individual
periods below.

tonight and monday morning: this period is trending somewhat
more impactful, and the day 1 spc marginal risk (1 of 5) for
severe weather has been expanded through the entire area
tonight, and a slight risk (2 of 5) has been added to nw ohio,
along with a small expansion of the wpc day 1 slight risk for
excessive rainfall into more of nw ohio. the initial shortwave
moving into the upper midwest tonight will ignite an mcs over
the western great lakes this evening, where a 30-40 knot low-
level jet will focus strong warm/moist/theta e advection into
the frontal boundary. the past few runs of the href members and
rrfs have struggled with the evolution and track of this mcs
(and will continue to do so in this entire pattern), but
consensus is becoming more aligned with the idea that it will
move at least into nw ohio late tonight and possibly roll
through the lakeshore counties in the pre-dawn hours monday
morning along the retreating frontal boundary. instability will
be weaker tonight and early monday morning compared to the
source region for this complex to the west, so the most intense
portion of the system may dive south through illinois and
indiana, but slowly increasing low-level moisture and
instability through the night coupled with increasing mid-level
flow ahead of the approaching shortwave should be enough to
support some damaging wind risk, and pwats rising back to 1.5 to
2 inches definitely support torrential rainfall with any
thunderstorms. so, potential is growing for thunderstorms late
tonight and early monday morning to have decent organization
and produce some scattered wind damage and heavy rainfall.

monday afternoon and monday night: this period is trending drier
since the greater coverage and organization of the convection
early monday morning should push the boundary back southwest and
also lay down outflow boundaries. this will likely cause new
convection to initiate farther southwest monday evening and
monday night. the shortwave will continue to progress through
the central great lakes monday afternoon and evening, with a
30-40 knot low-level jet response focusing warm/moist/theta e
advection into the front and outflow boundaries. this will
ignite another mcs monday evening or early monday night, but
consensus is growing that the bulk of the activity will be
confined to areas along and south of a findlay to mount vernon
line, and some href members even have it entirely southwest of
our cwa. while the threat of organized convection is decreasing
for most of our area monday evening through monday night,
noteworthy deep layer effective shear of 35-40 knots along with
the low-level jet aligned increasingly parallel to the main
boundary supports both severe weather (mainly damaging winds but
a couple of tornadoes) and torrential rainfall/flash flooding
from backbuilding convection wherever it develops and tracks. it
will be important to continue to check the latest forecast for
monday evening and monday night since the convection will be
significant wherever it ends up being.

tuesday and tuesday night: uncertainty becomes really high by
the time we get to this period of the forecast, but the synoptic
frontal boundary remaining quasi-stationary and wavering around
the southern great lakes and ohio valley combined with what
appears to be one or two additional shortwaves will ignite
additional scattered convection during peak heating and mcs
clusters at night. whether the convection ends up south of our
cwa (possible scenario due to all of the outflow from previous
convection) or into parts of our area, excessive rain totals and
flash flooding will be a growing concern because this will be
the third day of potential heavy rain. the expansion of the wpc day
3 slight risk for excessive rainfall into most of the area
tuesday and tuesday night is reasonable based on the uncertainty
in location but potential for rainfall accumulations to be high
by the time this period arrives depending on where all of the
individual rounds end up.

wednesday and wednesday night: the shortwave train should
finally flatten the southern conus ridge enough by this period
that the trough across the great lakes and northeast conus will
finally be able to deepen enough to begin to push the active
boundary south of the area. one more day of convection and heavy
rainfall is possible over or just south of the cwa wednesday
before the drier air begins to work in wednesday night.

key message 2...
the deepening mid/upper trough across the great lakes and
northeast conus wednesday night through the start of the weekend
combined with canadian high pressure at the surface gradually
sliding down across the great lakes and pushing the frontal
boundary into the ohio river valley will yield drier, cooler,
and less humid conditions. highs will be in the mid to upper 70s
by friday and saturday with lows in the 50s away from the lake.


&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
as a cold front exits to the east, high pressure will build over
the area allowing for dry conditions for much of the period. as
this system enters, skies are clearing and will remain generally
clear through this evening. with residual moisture in the
region, some mvfr visibility may develop at terminals that had
rain on saturday and can decouple before sunrise. there will be
a chance for mvfr at all terminals but kcle and keri and have
tempo groups in the tafs.

for the end of the taf period, the first in a series of systems
will reach the area bringing increasing cloudiness before
showers and storms arrive to the region. the only terminal with
a chance for any ts is ktol and have a vcts there. otherwise,
will need to refine storm timing and aviation impacts in later
taf packages.

winds through the period will be light and generally
southwesterly.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected through
thursday as several rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms move across the airspace. some storms could be
strong to severe during this timeframe, especially on monday.

&&

.marine...
northwest flow is present over the lake this morning with a cold
front exiting the region. high pressure will briefly build over
the lake today and flow will shift to the southwest by this
afternoon. for tonight through wednesday, the weather pattern
appears fairly unsettled with several weak low pressure systems
moving over or just south of the area. these systems will allow
for southwest to west flow to persist through the middle of the
week and will bring periodic shower and storm chances. there may
be some marine headlines needed with the storm chances over the
lake. a cold front will cross the area by thursday and high
pressure will build into the region toward the end of the week,
allowing for northwest flow to take over. there could be some 2
to 3 ft waves with the cold frontal passage, which may lead to a
brief moderate swimming risk.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
935
fxus63 kiwx 090702
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
302 am edt sun aug 9 2026

.key messages...

- severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight present the
risk of flash flooding and damaging wind gusts. tornadoes
cannot be ruled out.

- additional severe thunderstorms are possible monday afternoon
and evening.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 301 am edt sun aug 9 2026

plenty of uncertainty in the forecast today, yet, depending on which
solution verifies, heavy rainfall may prove the most likely hazard
this evening along the indiana-michigan state line. this is in
addition to the damaging wind gust and tornado risk from severe
thunderstorms this afternoon (low confidence) and overnight (medium
confidence).

as it goes here in northern indiana, rounds of storms are highly
dependent on how any convection earlier in the day evolves. early
this morning, the area to watch is over the nd-sd state line where a
growing complex of storms exists. this complex drifts east and into
northeast il and into in this afternoon. preexisting high pressure
may be the element guidance is struggling with, especially in
contrast to the incoming warm front which is timed well to support
afternoon convection. mid-level lapse rates of about 6.8 c/km could
be better. aloft, a 45-knot jet could be enough to sustain storms,
yet the best upper-level support is well north across the upper
great lakes. ensemble high resolution guidance generally suggests a
weakening line of convection arrives by mid-afternoon and presents a
non-zero chance for damaging wind gusts amid 1500 j/kg of cape and
about 30 knots of shear.

given the anticipated modest state of this afternoon`s convection,
round two overnight could prove more potent. starting with
the heavy rain concern, multiple forecast models are latching onto a
complex of rain and storms that becomes anchored over south-
central lake michigan extending east through the indiana-michigan
state line. storms develop along the warm front amid a strengthening
low-level jet. michiana communities from la porte and michigan city,
east to the greater elkhart-goshen metro areas could be at risk for
urban flooding from rain rates of at least 1" per hour
(likely more) and rainfall totals in excess of 2-2.5
inches if forecasts verify. boundary-parallel flow (which is
especially weak and convergent at the surface), 500-mb dew point
depressions of 1 to 2 c indicate a very deep moisture profile,
along with warm cloud depths nearing 14,000 ft. swift 850-mb flow of
about 30-40 knots and generally dry recent conditions may work to
reduce the flood risk. nonetheless, if training storms can
develop, heavy rain and localized urban flooding are a concern
tonight.

in addition to the flooding threat, any supercells that develop in
the vicinity of the warm front pose a risk for all hazards including
tornadoes. lapse rates once again pose a challenge, as does overall
storm evolution, but 0-1km srh of nearly 300 m2/s2 results in
shallow but looping hodographs. the previously mentioned
moisture-rich atmosphere may prove challenging for hail, but as
storms congeal into a line, damaging wind gusts would become the
primary hazard through early monday morning.

we`ll face another possible round of severe thunderstorms late
monday afternoon and evening as energetic upper-level flow remains in
place. this too could pose a heavy rain risk with many of the same
ingredients in place. tuesday will be worth watching for more
storms until high pressure finally noes in by wednesday to steer
this active pattern elsewhere. late-week low pressure brings another
chance for storms. high temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal through the 7-day period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1253 am edt sun aug 9 2026

pockets of stratus and fog are noted on rgb satellite over
central indiana and northern ohio. dew point depressions are
variable over the area and there are still enough indications
to suggest br/fg this morning.

a developing thunderstorm complex over the nd- sd state line
will be worth watching this morning. embedded within west-
northwest flow, this feature is anticipated to track into
illinois and indiana by the afternoon. significant timing and
strength differences remain in the high resolution forecast
guidance, thus, confidence is low in how this evolves. however,
there is enough agreement to suggest the inherited prob30 at
ksbn for tsra is worth keeping and slowing down by 2 hours. this
first round of tsra still appears to miss kfwa due to the
anticipated weakening trend.

a second complex of storms is in the cards early monday
morning, but given low confidence in the first round, how
anything evolves around 04z monday is questionable.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
099
fxus63 kdtx 090645
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
245 am edt sun aug 9 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions today.

- chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight.
isolated storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail. in addition, heavy rainfall will be possible.

- seasonable temperatures with periodic chances for thunderstorms
throughout the early week period

&&

.discussion...

ridge of high pressure anchored over the region early this morning
will maintain influence heading into sunday as it slowly vacates to
the east. this provides a brief window for deeper layer stability to
exist within the background of prevailing lower amplitude mid level
west-northwest flow. this will support dry conditions with a high
degree of insolation potential through the afternoon hours. emerging
low level southerly flow will initiate a modest period of warm air
advection through the daylight period. this will bring highs into
the middle and upper 80s, but with a more manageable humidity level
noted with a dewpoint generally hovering near 60 degrees.

attention for the evening period turns to behavior of convective
activity now organizing over the upper miss valley within a zone of
deeper moist/warm air advection and along one of several mid level
impulses embedded within the mean flow. model guidance offers a
general consensus for this activity to maintain some form of
integrity as translates downstream today, reaching the local area
during the evening hours. higher likelihood for this activity to
arrive in a weakening state as instability really diminishes with
eastward extent, perhaps even falling apart or becoming focused over
a smaller footprint. forecast will scale precipitation chances down
into the chance to lower likely category for the 22z-04z window and
allow near term trends to dictate further revision. greater moisture
advection occurs within the wake of this wave overnight, initiating
a secondary opportunity for convective expansion along the existing
frontal boundary/outflow extending across southern lower mi. while
there may be a tendency for greater expansion to build southward
into the deeper instability residing south of the state line, the
potential certainly exists for some clusters of marginally surface
based cells to work eastward into mainly areas south of i-96 during
the overnight hours. spc continues to highlight this corridor for an
isolated risk of damaging winds and hail. in addition, potential for
some training of cells along the boundary will offer the possibility
for areas of heavier rainfall and a localized flash flooding threat.

forecast for monday carries strong dependence on behavior of the
overnight activity both locally and upstream. there is currently
strong evidence across the model spectrum that the more meaningful
forced ascent and deeper instability will generally remain to the
south and west during the day. there remains at least a lower
probability for mainly southern sections to be vulnerable for
renewed diurnal development should more tangible forced ascent
materialize. latest nbm corroborates this noted trend with a sizable
downward revision in forecast precip chances for the monday period.
this casts considerable doubt on prospective severe convective
chances. there perhaps is greater potential for another round of
convective expansion monday night into tuesday over the northern
ohio valley, which could spill into southern lower mi as bouts of
greater moist/warm air advection occur along the oscillating
boundary and within any passing shortwave. in a nutshell, the early
week precip forecast carries very low predictability and likely will
require additional revision. temperatures during this period will
remain seasonable for mid august.

&&

.marine...

high pressure slides east across the region tonight into sunday,
with west-northwest winds becoming south and southwest by sunday
morning. south winds increase sunday across northern lake huron, to
around 20-25 knots. the uptick in winds on sunday over the saginaw
bay will bring 2-3 feet waves, but conditions look to fall just
short of small craft advisory criteria at this time. much of sunday
remains dry, but sunday evening through early next week an active
pattern will bring back chances for organized thunderstorms as a
slow moving frontal boundary sets up across the southern great lakes
region and lingers through mid week. by the end of the week, high
pressure builds south from central canada.

&&

.hydrology...

one or more rounds of thunderstorms will track toward the region
this evening and overnight. low confidence exists on possible
trajectory, duration and coverage of any activity, with greater
overall potential perhaps developing mainly south and west of the
area. if thunderstorms do impact se michigan, there will be
potential for training thunderstorms capable of rainfall rates in
excess of an inch per hour. localized flash flooding will be
possible, especially if heavy rainfall impacts urban areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1140 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

aviation...

high pressure promotes clearing skies and weakening winds through
tonight. influence of said high lingers through sunday morning
before upstream convection over the western great lakes approaches
the area in the evening. exactly how well this complex survives into
se mi, or the degree of redevelopment overnight behind it, carries a
good amount of uncertainty at this stage so continue to hold prob30
mentions.

d21/dtw convection... no convection forecast through sunday
afternoon. upstream storms over the western great lakes are expected
to track near/over se mi sunday evening/night though this carries a
high amount of uncertainty this far out.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 5000 ft through sunday afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms sunday evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......ja
hydrology....mr
aviation.....kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.