Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
716 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast. trailing showers/stratiform rain
may inhibit further storm development further west, but there is
time for the atmosphere to recover slightly prior to this
evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) cold front late sunday into early sunday night brings the next round
of convection.

2) warm sector returns tuesday through thursday after a cool monday
bringing unsettled conditions back into the fold.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front pushing through the area has brought mainly showers but
also a few embedded thunderstorm this morning. trailing showers,
stratiform rain driven by pva aloft continue this afternoon and
early evening when activity should overall be on the wane across the
cwa. potential fog into the overnight hours developing late where it
rained today but could be inhibited by lingering clouds in the
eastern cwa, so this could end up being more of western cwa issue.
brief warm sector residence time into sunday when a cold front
enters from the northwest. low/mid level frontogenesis should be on
the increase as the front is tracking through, and see these
increases in the southeastern zones of the cwa. that is when a line
of convection with the front is expected to form, likely just south
and east of the lakeshore areas east of cleveland associated with a
small pocket of a low level jet maximum and increasing instability
from dewpoints near 70f at the surface and a 3-5c surge at 850mb
coinciding with the aforementioned low level jet. sufficient 0-6km
shear should organize storms into a line ahead of the cold front.
there is a potential for severe as a result, but ultimately, these
should exit the cwa fairly quickly with forward motion to the
southeast.

key message 2...
very cool day monday in a much cooler airmass behind the late sunday
cold front, with 70f tough to come by for the eastern half of the
cwa. this will be short-lived, however, with canadian high pressure
that was over the area monday shifting quickly eastward and back
into return flow and quickly warming temperatures again through
midweek. warm front likely to set up along the fetch of lake erie or
near it into the same time frame, bringing unsettled weather back
with dewpoints up from the lower 50s to possibly the lower 70s and
air temperatures into the mid 80s. expecting unsettled weather as a
result with off and on convection from tuesday night through at
least thursday for the area.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
predominately vfr conditions have returned across the area as
showers drift east. some clearing in ceilings tonight coupled
with calm winds will result in fog/low stratus development
likely beginning in the next couple hours. patchy dense fog is
possible, especially for inland terminals where vsbys could drop
below 2sm. in addition, ceilings will trend downward as low
stratus develops and some bkn ceilings below 1kft are possible.
after sunrise sunday morning, the fog will begin to lift and
most terminals should recover to vfr before another line of
showers and storms pushes east sunday afternoon. conditions may
locally become non-vfr within these showers.

winds 10 knots or less will persist through the taf period,
beginning this afternoon from the southwest before becoming
west-northwest by sunday morning. gusts up to 20 knots will be
possible for ktol sunday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms sunday
afternoon and evening. non-vfr again possible in scattered
showers/storms tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
offshore winds tonight become west southwesterly 10kts sunday ahead
of a late sunday cold frontal passage. high pressure behind the cold
front turns winds northerly 15-25kts and wave heights quickly
building to 3-6ft sunday night through monday where a small craft
advisory will likely be needed. with high pressure quickly moving
eastwards, winds return to offshore flow 15-20kts into midweek and
wave heights nearshore less than 2ft.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...04
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
743 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

.key messages...

- isolated showers and storms possible through the afternoon, mainly
south of us 24.

- light rain showers sunday afternoon possible with 20-30% chances.

- cooler monday with highs in the 70s.

- turning warmer and humid tuesday and wednesday. additional rain
and storm chances (40-70%) late tuesday into wednesday.

- there is a high swim risk forecast on sunday for southeast
lake mi beaches. dangerous swimming conditions expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

surface observations show a warm front and 500 mb shortwave draped
across northern indiana. waa and increased moisture transport have
allowed for scattered showers and a few storms to persist through
the morning and early afternoon, mainly along and south of us 24.
still holding onto 20-40% chance pops until about 21-22z this
afternoon as the warm front will continue lifting northeastward. an
isolated storm or two will be possible due to surface based
instability of around 1000 j/kg this afternoon. shear and low/mid
level lapse rates will be too weak for any organized strong or
severe storms. northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan will
likely remain dry today. there is quite the contrast in sky cover on
visible satellite imagery across the area, with clear skies in the
vicinity of lake michigan and overcast skies mainly along and east
of i-69. cloud cover is expected to keep highs in the low 80s today
along and south of us 24, while temperatures should climb into the
mid to maybe even upper 80s in locations that have stayed dry so far
today.

the rest of the weekend appears mainly dry except for 20-30% chances
for widely scattered showers and storms sunday afternoon with a cold
frontal passage and associated upper level trough that passes
through the great lakes. rainfall amounts should be light, less than
0.10" for most locations. incoming high pressure behind the front
will create a tightening pressure gradient over the area, with
wind gusts up to 20-25 mph sunday afternoon and evening. caa
associated with northwest flow behind the front will make for a
pleasant sunday night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. a
very fall-like day is ahead monday with highs only in the low
70s.

if you have plans to head to se lake michigan beaches on sunday,
stay safe! behind the cold frontal passage, dangerous swimming
conditions are expected for southeastern lake michigan beaches in
berrien and la porte counties. caa and northwesterly flow sunday
behind the front will promote onshore flow and waves of 3-5 ft,
meaning the swim risk will be high for both la porte and berrien
counties. moderate to strong rip and structural currents are
expected.

an upper level ridge will amplify across the central and eastern
conus early next week. surface high pressure builds over the eastern
us on tuesday, with return flow and moisture from the gulf ushering
in warmer than normal temperatures and humid conditions underneath
the peak of the upper level ridge over the great lakes. our far
southwest will be the warmest with temperatures in the upper 80s for
highs tuesday and peak heat indices around 95. another frontal
system likely approaches by midweek with zonal flow aloft as the
ridge breaks down. have maintained likely pops of 40-70% tuesday
evening through wednesday. there are still some uncertainties with
this system in regards to exact timing and placement of the cold
front. this system may be slow moving or potentially even stall to
our northwest (still mixed model guidance results on how fast it
actually comes through our area or not). rain/storm chances midweek
will be highly dependent on where the periphery of the ridge ends up
(which model guidance has routinely struggled with in recent
months). with forcing expected to be weak as of now, severe weather
is not expected at this time, but we will have to monitor trends in
the coming days.

our forecast area looks to remain sandwiched between hot and humid
air to our south and cooler, drier air to our north for the
foreseeable future, with a trend towards drier than normal
conditions by late september.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 742 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

a cold front continues to slowly push through the area during this
taf period. given the proximity of the front before nightfall to the
north of fwa and with some sunshine allowing for warming, could see
some radiational cooling and therefore some fog at fwa given winds
becoming light overnight. however, with the front traversing
through, the tighter theta-e gradient could be enough to limit the
extent of fog. have greatest confidence in mvfr magnitude at this
point. otherwise, vfr prevails. southwest winds veer northwesterly
overnight and gusts from 20 to 25 kts will be possible sunday
afternoon with the increased gradient.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from sunday morning through sunday
evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from sunday morning through sunday
evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am to 11 pm edt sunday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

.key messages...

- potential for a few showers to develop sunday afternoon primarily
north of i-69.

- cool sunday night: low temperatures fall into the 40s sunday night
as high pressure and cooler air settles over the area.

- unsettled midweek: warmer and humid conditions return early next
week, bringing multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms tuesday
through thursday.

&&

.aviation...

standard decline in lingering diurnal vfr cu with loss of daytime
heating early this evening, as an increase in mid level moisture
brings a noted uptick in higher based cloud coverage for the
remainder of the evening. this occurs ahead of a cold frontal
boundary set to sag into the region during the early-mid morning
hours. improving low level moisture along the frontal zone will
support a period of mvfr cloud development late tonight -
particularly from ptk northward. post-frontal wind shift to north-
northeast for the morning period. drying boundary layer conditions
will effectively lift and scatter this cloud field through the day.
conditions may become favorable for a lower coverage of showers,
with a rumble of thunder sunday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are expected through sunday
morning. very low potential sunday afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less after midnight tonight
through sunday morning.

* very low for an isolated thunderstorm sunday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

discussion...

850-700mb moisture gradient collocated with general midlevel
stretching deformation served as a focus for midlevel altocumulus
congestus development during the late morning hours along a line
from manchester to harbor beach. a secondary diffuse surface based
warm front is also lifting northward out of ohio into portions of
southeast michigan for the early afternoon. residual convective
inhibition off of the high pressure from recent days is forecasted
to hold in some fashion between 4.0-10.0 kft agl. so there will be
some background deterrent for upward motion due to the capping
inversion. poor model signal exists but 75-90th percentile of nbm 12
hour qpf progs does suggest some sporadic, isolated shower activity
this afternoon. do think that the low potential for a thunderstorm
will come after 20z south of the i 69 corridor along the surface
based front. daytime heating with the richer boundary layer moisture
suggests mlcape of around 1000 j/kg will be possible with 0-6km bulk
shear of 25 knots or less. no severe weather is anticipated.

surface cold front and dewpoint gradient will begin a journey
southward tonight that will slow down in vicinity of southeast
michigan. models suggests a backdoor cold front working southward
overnight before stalling in the thumb. complex setup for early
sunday with midlevel ridging component overhead as surface ridging
tries to expand eastward. composite trough axis with shortwave then
digs into southeast michigan but really appears to be out of phase
with any of the favorable dynamics of the upper level jet streak.
low chance of showers and/or rumble of thunder appears inevitable
sunday afternoon but will likely require true absolute vorticity
advection. as a result, precipitation chances sunday look to hold
off until after 20z with some very modest midlevel fgen.

much less humid air will be ushered into southeast michigan with
cooler temperatures for monday. strong surface high pressure is
progged so any instability type shower potential should be highly
limited to any lake effect activity. clear skies with highs around
70 degrees.

surface high pressure will remain very progressive tracking out of
lower michigan by tuesday. models show significant warm air and
dewpoint advection for tuesday with highs climbing back above 80.
details need to be ironed out yet but greatest dynamic support for
ascent appears likely for northern wisconsin and the u.p. associated
with strong upper level jet forcing. dipole subsidence under strong
extension to upper level ridge may hold for a time tuesday before a
far reaching baroclinic/frontal zone sags southward into the
northern forecast area. a wet period then appears in store with
convection possible/persisting along the edge of the instability
reservoir. there is a model signal that suggests a wave of
frontogenesis and low pressure will work through the northern great
lakes region late wednesday and wednesday night. will need to
monitor for possible thunderstorm/mcs potential.

marine...

high pressure over eastern portions of the great lakes region will
continue to push eastward this afternoon. at the same time, low
pressure over northern ontario has been pulling a cold front over
northern portions of the great lakes bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. the front will move off to the east overnight as a
short period of dry weather before isolated shower chances come back
in by sunday afternoon. moderate trailing northwest flow develops
over northern lake huron during the daytime on sunday with peak
gusts between 25 to 30 knots. a more dynamic system then lifts out
of the plains and over the northern great lakes monday night into
tuesday. preceding warm, humid airmass will fuel better scattered
storm chances during this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......ss

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.