Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
768
fxus61 kcle 201125
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
725 am edt mon jul 20 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front
tonight through tuesday. severe storms are possible, though
uncertainty remains on timing and coverage.

2) a brief cool-down is expected mid-week, before temperatures
return near or slightly above normal by the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an unseasonbly-potent shortwave will track east across the
midwest and ohio valley tonight into tuesday, associated with a
broad upper-level trough rotating east through the upper great
lakes. at the surface, a warm front will lift northeast across
the area tonight, followed by a strong cold front tuesday night.
the latest spc swody2 outlook has much of the area in a slight
risk, with a small sliver across the southeast in an enhanced
risk for damaging wind gust potential.

the main concern with this system will be the potential for
severe storms, given the strong environmental shear profiles,
though a large amount of uncertainty remains on both coverage
and timing. the latest hires ensemble guidance suggests a
nocturnal convective complex may immediately follow the warm
front on the nose of a potent 700 mb shortwave tuesday morning
across north- central ohio. redevelopment of this complex of
storms is possible by late morning, (around 11 am) generally
along and east of the i-71 corridor, exiting east into
pennsylvania by roughly 2 pm. in this case, any additional
severe threat later in the afternoon or evening would be
limited. this scenario appears the more likely one, given the
overall dynamics of this system. the favored storm mode with
this scenario would be a larger mesoscale convective complex
with a more widespread damaging wind threat and potentially a
few embedded tornadoes.

a second, but lower likelihood, scenario would be that the
nocturnal complex mostly dissipates by tuesday morning,
resulting in greater destabilization ahead of the cold front and
a slightly later initiation time for thunderstorms, roughly 2
pm, and exiting east of the area by 7 to 8 pm. this scenario
would favor more mixed storm modes such as line segments and
supercells given the slightly better shear/instability overlap
(more of an all-hazards threat, including damaging wind gusts, a
few tornadoes, and large hail).

key message 2...
a much cooler air mass will enter the region behind the cold
front on wednesday, with highs falling into the low 70s (and
some places upper 60s) on wednesday, only marginally increasing into
the mid-70s by thursday. by the end of the week into the
weekend, a large upper-level ridge will develop across the
southwest conus and expand eastward into the midwest/great
lakes. temperatures will return to near or slightly above normal
in the mid to upper-80s by saturday and sunday.

mainly dry weather is favored for this period, though shower and
thunderstorm chances may begin to increase by late sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
other than a brief period of mvfr vsbys in haze due to wildfire
smoke early this morning, vfr is expected through late tonight.
patchy smoke will likely stick around through roughly 00z
today, but do not anticipate significant reductions in vsbys
during the day today. a weakening complex of thunderstorms will
move southeast into the local area after 06z tuesday and could
reach as far east as kcle/kmfd by 12z. have prevailing showers
with prob30 groups for thunderstorms/mvfr conditions for
ktol/kfdy and prob30 groups for showers for kcle/kmfd towards
the end of the taf period. vfr is expected outside of showers
and thunderstorms.

winds will be light and variable early this morning with light
south/southwest flow developing by mid to late morning. a lake
breeze will allow more northerly winds to 5 to 10 knots develop
this afternoon into this evening. south/southwest winds will
likely increase overnight with gusts to 20 to 25 knots likely
across nw oh and along the lakeshore towards the end of the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms through
tuesday afternoon. some thunderstorms tuesday afternoon may
contain strong wind gusts. residual non-vfr possible on
wednesday in rain showers across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions are expected today, but south/southwest
winds will begin to increase tonight as a warm front crosses the
lake and a cold front approaches from the west. by 8 am or so
tuesday morning, southwest winds to 15 to 25 knots (strongest
winds in the open waters) are expected with waves likely
building to 2 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters of the central
and eastern basins of the lake. small craft advisories will
likely be needed during the day tuesday and probably through
much of wednesday as flow shifts to the northwest behind the
cold front. winds will diminish wednesday evening/night and
expect much better marine conditions as winds remain below 10
knots thursday/friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 201726
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

.key messages...

- smoke from canadian wildfires will continue to bring periods
of poor air quality and reduced visibility through at least
today.

- there is a 30-60% chance of thunderstorms tonight with a cold
front moving into the area. storms may become strong to
severe. confidence in severe weather occurring is low. storms
may redevelop tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 322 am edt mon jul 20 2026

today will mainly be dry with an increase in southerly flow
ahead well advertised shortwave disturbance pushing
southeasterly with the cyclonic flow on the eastern periphery of
the broad ridging over the central conus. a cold front
associated with this disturbance is still progged to drop
through the area later tonight with still some uncertainty on
the exact timing and strength of the storms as they push into
the northwestern portions of the cwa. still looking like around
10 pm edt for the front to arrive into the area but some
isolated storms could develop just ahead of the front a little
earlier than that time. a forecasted 125 kt 200 mb jet max will
push through the region later tonight helping bolster the
dynamics with the storms that develop across northern il and wi
later today and this could help to keep storms a bit stronger as
they push into our area. but, there will be a loss of most of
the available surface instability with the arrival being well
after sunset. mid level lapse rates around 7-8 deg/km though may
help to keep convection more elevated. bulk shear values of
only around 25 to 30 kts also does keep storms less organized at
that time. so questions on how intense storms will be once they
arrive still exist. the same timing dilemma also brings
confidence lower for any storms along the frontal boundary
tuesday late morning into the afternoon. the better chances do
seem to be the far southeastern portions of the cwa with better
diurnal warming available in those areas. spc still does have
parts of our area within a slight risk for storms tonight and
tuesday. showers and thunderstorms seem like a good bet across
our area with this system but again the strength of the storms
will be questionable.

in the wake of the cold front late tuesday a cooler and drier
airmass will push into the area with a northwesterly flow aloft
through friday. this keeps temperatures cooler with highs
ranging in the 70s for wednesday through friday with a few lower
80s sprinkling in on friday. upper flow smoke intrusion is
likely to return with the northwesterly flow aloft and in the
overnight periods may make it`s way closer to the surface so
will need to watch for that. ridging over the central conus
begins to push eastward into the region so will see a warming
trend this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s into the
beginning of next week when the next chances for precipitation
look to increase.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 124 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

chances for thunderstorms enter the area around midnight this
evening. there is some question about their intensity and whether or
not they`ll be able to continue much farther southeastward to sbn,
let alone get to fwa. at this point, plan to use prob30 for sbn and
while the chances are lower for fwa than sbn, will use prob30 for
fwa as well. the outflow boundary/cold front pushes southeastward
and probably gets far enough south of fwa to keep them out of
thunderstorm chances on tuesday, but will leave this to
following taf issuances. also plan to any mention of smoke out
of the tafs due to weaker concentration of particles. there
could be some smoke-induced mvfr visby across maybe sbn
tomorrow morning depending on where storms linger or the outflow
boundary gets through, but don`t have enough confidence to
place that in this issuance.

otherwise, expect southwest winds to become more westerly tuesday
morning. gusts to 25 kts will be possible tuesday with the low level
jet overhead. a few gusts to 25 kts will be possible at sbn
overnight tonight, but that really depends on thunderstorm chances.
will cover that more in the sustained wind section instead.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078>081-
177-277.
beach hazards statement from late tonight through late
wednesday night for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am tuesday to 1 am edt thursday
for lmz043.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 201004
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
604 am edt mon jul 20 2026

.key messages...

- a statewide air quality alert is in effect through today
with lingering wildfire smoke across michigan.

- showers and thunderstorms tonight will pose an isolated risk for
severe weather.

- mostly dry with temperatures at or just below average during the
mid-late week period.

&&

.aviation...

quiet to start the day with a couple hours of haze/shallow fog under
the high pressure dome before deeper mixing kicks in and end any
vsby restrictions. clouds will steadily be thickening as upstream
convection increases in coverage sending clouds over the region. mid
level trough will swing through tonight bringing a period of showers
and thunderstorms overnight. will continue with the prob30 for now
as models are not convinced in some widespread convective line
rolling through, so will hedge toward a broken line which introduces
lower confidence. northern sites will have about a 3 hour window for
convection but the detroit area sites could have a longer duration,
or multiple rounds as the initial batch rolls through, then the
surface cold front tries to develop a second round tuesday morning.
southwest winds today will veer more westerly behind the convection
and gust to near 25 knots tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through monday
evening. the chances for thunderstorms increase during the early
morning hours tuesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms late monday night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am edt mon jul 20 2026

discussion...

high pressure will drifts off the mid-atlantic coast today leading
to increasing southwest return flow. influence from this high
pressure will bring dry and around average temperatures this
afternoon. highs today should land in the low 80s for most the area.
there remains haze/smoke from wildfires hanging around to the west
and parts of the state today that will pivot back through the area as
winds become southwesterly. some improvements to the air quality are
expected compared to the last several days, but concentrations still
may be in the unhealthy for sensitive groups aqi range per egle.
thus, an air quality alert remains in place through today.

prospects for showers and thunderstorms increase tonight as a potent
canadian shortwave and cold front swing across the region. models do
point to a vort max that will round the western conus ridge ahead of
this wave early this evening, but lack of instability and moisture
availability should keep the area mostly dry until later tonight.
hires models depict blossoming convection occuring west of lake
michigan that arrives as a broken line into southeast michigan.
there is some uncertainty in regards to timing with convection first
arriving between 04-06z across the saginaw valley and spreading
southeastward to the detroit metro region in the 10-12z window. the
greater uncertainty remains the available instability in the 06-12z
window as convection is expected to arrive with the greater synoptic
support outpacing the instability. this would lean towards a
weakening of any more organized convection as it moves into southeast
michigan. though, moisture quality is expected to improve with pwats
to near 2.00 inches along with increasing deep layer shear and
steepening mid- level lapse rates. this at least supports high pops
for showers with embedded thunderstorms that will pose an isolated
severe weather risk. convective outlook continues to carry a marginal
risk for all of southeast michigan with a small portion of slight
risk across far northwest portions of the cwa. damaging wind gusts
and brief heavy downpours are the main threats.

system`s cold front will be trailing behind the lead wave of
thunderstorms in the morning and push through during the day.
destabilization will be questionable post morning thunderstorms. if
frontal timing lags enough, additional thunderstorms will be
possible that may pose an isolated severe risk. favored area would
be far southeast portions of the cwa (roughly along and south of a
port huron to adrian line).

passage of the front will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures
for wednesday with 850mb temperatures falling to below 10c resulting
in daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. surface high
pressure should keep conditions mostly dry mid-week even with broad
cyclonic flow aloft from the eastern canadian closed mid-upper low.
the only exception may be across the thumb where a few showers early
wednesday may be possible as a shortwave drops across the north
central great lakes. michigan will remain under a dry and cooler
northwest flow into the late week period while residing between the
east canadian trough and the western conus ridge. this brings
temperatures roughly around average to close out the work week while
limiting convective chances.

marine...

high pressure influence wanes across the central great lakes today
with dry initial conditions. unsettled weather builds in this
evening and overnight, as a strong low pressure system tracks across
central/southern ontario. gusty winds ahead of the attendant front
will lead to a period of small craft advisory conditions,
particularly across saginaw bay, where southwesterly flow channels
more efficiently. a small craft advisory has been issued for the bay
with additional small craft advisories extending across the rest of
the nearshore zones with time, as flow veers westerly, then
northwesterly. potential exists for showers and thunderstorms to
overspread the waterways as the front moves through, supporting
periods of locally higher winds and waves. showery/stormy conditions
could persist on tuesday before high pressure from alberta/manitoba
builds in by tuesday evening, producing a drying effect. tighter
gradient flow arises tuesday afternoon with an energetic
northwesterly low-level jet favoring non-zero potential for a period
of gusts to gales for portions of the huron basin through wednesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt wednesday
for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 4 am tuesday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.