Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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028
fxus61 kcle 071044
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
644 am edt tue jul 7 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no significant changes with this update. the next system to
affect the area will be a cold front late this week.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated to scattered showers and storms expected across
southern and eastern portions of the area this afternoon.

2) the next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
thursday into friday as a cold front moves across the area.
heavy rain is possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the broad/weak low that has brought active weather to the area
since sunday will continue to gradually exit to the east-
southeast today, allowing for a much drier and somewhat sunnier
forecast. some patchy fog early this morning should quickly lift
after sunrise. otherwise, a few sprinkles or minor showers may
impact portions of northern ohio (mainly in the hills south of
lake erie) this morning, with isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms favored to develop this afternoon across
interior eastern ohio and into interior western pennsylvania.
coverage will be much lower than recent days, and the atmosphere
isn`t quite as supportive of torrential rainfall. storm motions
will be slow so can`t rule out some localized minor flooding if
we do see a few storms develop, but overall the concern is much
lower in both extent and magnitude than recent days.

any shower/thunder activity should quickly exit to the southeast
and/or dissipate with sunset this evening. there appears to be
greater potential for radiational cooling and a humid airmass to
team up to allow for some fog to develop tonight into early
wednesday morning. wednesday should be a tranquil/dry day as a
shortwave ridge axis slides across the region. just a small
chance for a very isolated afternoon shower across interior
northwest pa. tranquil conditions continue wednesday night, with
perhaps a bit of fog again though likely more localized if any.

highs today will generally reach the low to mid 80s, perhaps
slightly warmer in toledo. highs will tick up a couple degrees
or so for wednesday, well into the 80s across the area.
overnight lows mainly in the 60s the next couple of nights,
though locations along the lake (especially cleveland) may
struggle to dip below 70. while dew points won`t be quite as
tropical as the last number of days, it`ll still be on the humid
side with values generally in the mid-upper 60s today/wednesday.

key message 2...
a modest trough will dig into the northeast to end the week,
pushing a cold front across the local area on friday. as the
prior discussion mentioned, there has been a noticeable trend
to slow down the front`s passage a bit over the last few model
cycles. initial shower and storm chances return to the forecast
thursday afternoon as a warm, humid, and modestly unstable
airmass returns to the region ahead of the approaching front.
large scale forcing on thursday will be modest, though there are
hints of a weak shortwave or vort max moving through the upper
ohio valley. overall, confidence in some precip across the area
thursday afternoon is medium-high, though coverage may end up
remaining on the isolated to scattered side given the lack of
forcing. greater potential is evident thursday night as
convection that develops closer to the approaching front spreads
east-southeast into the area. with the humid airmass in place
and warm lake, there is potential for convection to maintain
itself overnight. with the front likely not crossing the area
until friday and not completely exiting to our south until
friday evening, expect at least some re-development of showers
and storms on friday. coverage of activity on friday has
potential to be decent if the front continues to slow,
especially across southern portions of the area.

any severe weather threat thursday into friday appears fairly
marginal, given warm mid-levels leading to marginal and skinny
instability profiles. flow aloft will be weak on thursday,
providing for very limited amounts of shear. flow aloft does
increase a bit on friday, perhaps offering marginally more
shear for a non-zero (but likely still lower-end) severe threat.
the environment does become conducive to torrential rain rates
within convection thursday night into friday, as precipitable
water values climb to around 1.80" amid a warm atmosphere, with
modest and generally westerly flow aloft supporting slower storm
motions and perhaps a bit of training along/ahead of the
sagging front. will watch for at least localized potential for
heavy rain and flash flooding yet again if we`re able to see
organized convection thursday night or friday.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
the main message for aviation weather with this taf update will
be vfr conditions across the area later this morning through
this evening. some mvfr to ifr ceilings will be around early
this morning but give way to vfr ceilings by midday into the
early afternoon. some mvfr conditions may return again with
light fog and ceilings after 06z tonight. winds will be light
and variable or from the north 4 to 8 knots during this taf
time window.

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms thursday
afternoon through saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
a weak area of high pressure will build over lake erie today
through wednesday. the flow will be from the north to northeast
today and tonight 5 to 15 knots with waves of 1 to 3 feet. the
flow becomes a little weaker and variable by wednesday less
than 10 knots and waves less than 2 feet. southwesterly flow 8
to 12 knots will return thursday ahead of a cold front with
waves 1 to 2 feet in the nearshore water. a push of
northwesterly winds around 10 knots and waves up to 2 feet will
follow the passage of the cold front on friday. no marine
headlines are anticipated through the end of this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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630
fxus63 kiwx 071003
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
603 am edt tue jul 7 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures are expected through the remainder of
the week. temperatures and humidity levels may creep upward
late this weekend into early next week.

- dry conditions are expected today through early thursday.
chances of showers and storms will increase later thursday
into friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 335 am edt tue jul 7 2026

the very slow moving mid/upper level trough that has produced
multiple days of scattered showers and storms is now slowly pushing
across the eastern great lakes region this morning. a broad
upper vort filament extends to the southwest across central
indiana, trailing back to a closed low feature across northeast
arkansas. mid/upper level ridging will begin to build back into
the southern great lakes region in the wake of this broad
negative upper height anomaly with an associated broad low level
anticyclone building in from the northwest through wednesday.
the progression of this wave pattern and northerly low level
flow east of the ridge axis will allow for a drier airmass
across central/northern lower mi (~0.60 pwats in 00z apx raob)
to advect southward across the local area. this drier airmass
combined with broad synoptic scale subsidence will provide
pleasant conditions today. highs should be 2 to 5 degrees warmer
than yesterday based mostly on increased insolation.

light/calm winds and mainly clear skies are expected tonight as
anticyclone builds east. may need to watch for some patchy fog
potential across far ne in/nw oh early wednesday on eastern
periphery of the high building eastward. some high clouds may also
clip southern/southeast portion of the forecast area in association
with eastward migration of the lower ms valley cut-off low which
could also help limit fog formation.

wednesday should largely feature similar conditions to that of
tuesday with perhaps another degree or two of warming with
modification of low level airmass in subsidence regime. dew points
will remain in check in low-mid 60s however.

for wednesday night into thursday, an upper level short wave
currently lifting across id/western mt will help deamplify western
conus upper ridge and this short wave is expected to dampen across
the northern great lakes wed pm. dry conditions will persist through
wednesday night as better low level moisture transport remains
confined to the plains into the upper ms valley. best moisture
convergence across the central plains could give rise to another
convectively enhanced vort max shifting eastward into il/in thursday
afternoon into friday. at the same time, guidance is in general
agreement that upstream western conus ridge will start to amplify
again which raises some question as to how far north and east
pocket of better instability can reach during this period from
the mid ms valley. this low amplitude flattened flow pattern
will provide some better westerly shear by the late wed/thu
period, but instability magnitudes is an item of lower
confidence with possibility that effective low level boundary
and reservoir of better instability could be confined west and
southwest of the local area. more veered westerly deep layer
flow by thursday could yield some weak propagation vectors, and
with high pwat airmass in place by this time, cannot rule out
some decent rainfall amounts late thursday/friday. however, some
possibility exists that areas west/southwest of the local area
may be most favored for heavier rainfall.

some low pops were maintained into saturday given uncertainty in
evolution of any convective enhancement to short waves,
although by this time, bulk of guidance suggests drying trend as
effective frontal boundary may slip south of the area. medium
range guidance continues to suggest more pronounced
amplification of the central conus ridge by late weekend into
early next week that should support a warming trend toward the
end of the period with some increase in humidity. it is possible
some upward adjustments may be needed to temps by next monday
with deterministic/ensemble guidance starting to come into a
little better agreement by next monday regarding this scenario.
after monday, confidence begins to wane as ensemble spreads
become more dramatic in the handling of the extent of strength
of waves topping this ridge affecting the longitudinal placement
of the ridge axis by the middle of next week. mainly dry
conditions have been maintained for the weekend into monday
when guidance exhibits this stronger agreement in ridge
placement.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 600 am edt tue jul 7 2026

an upper level ridge will continue to slowly build across the
western great lakes this morning, with large scale subsidence
persisting today and tonight. dry weather is expected through
this period. light winds and lingering low level moisture has
allowed some patchy shallow fog to develop, particularly along
and south of us route 24. some very brief mvfr vsby restrictions
are possible at kfwa to begin the period, but otherwise vfr
conditions are expected through the period. cannot completely
discount some patchy shallow fog once again early wednesday
morning, but confidence is too low to include with the 12z tafs.
a surface anticyclone building into the region will provide
light north winds less than 10 knots today, becoming light
and variable/calm this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 070957
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
557 am edt tue jul 7 2026

.key messages...

- typical summer day today with highs in the mid 80s before above
normal temperatures in the upper 80s return wednesday into
thursday.

- next chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive thursday.
accompanying humid airmass will support a threat for locally heavy
rainfall with any storm.

- unsettled weather could linger late week with temperatures
returning near normal.

&&

.aviation...

a large area of weak high pressure extends from the central plains,
across the great lakes, and into ontario/quebec today. the ridge is
to the north and west of the se mi terminal corridor resulting in ne
low level wind into the region modified slightly by a lake breeze
component along the dtw corridor late this afternoon. dry weather
conditions are otherwise firmly in place while borderline vfr/mvfr
clouds are behind schedule on arrival or development from lake huron
and southern ontario. clear sky and patches of lower predictability
mvfr stratus during the morning become a scattered to broken field
of typical fair weather cumulus this afternoon.

clouds diminish this evening with the loss of daytime instability
and the wind becomes light and variable as the surface high settles
overhead. this presents a favorable scenario for shallow but near ifr
fog around sunrise wednesday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast today or
tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 307 am edt tue jul 7 2026

discussion...

surface high pressure is firmly in place across lower mi today
setting a fairly typical summer day locally. mostly sunny-partly
cloudy skies allow temperatures to nudge a couple degrees warmer
from yesterday with highs topping out in the mid 80s under only
light nne winds. center of this high eventually drifts directly over
se mi tonight turning winds calm as diurnal cloud dissipates. with
modest near surface moisture still in place (td in the lower 60s),
some areas of fog are possible late tonight into early wednesday
morning before quickly burning off with sunrise.

warming trend continues wednesday as central conus upper ridging is
flattened into the great lakes by a trough ejecting out of the
northern rockies. deeper layer, albeit light, southwest flow draws
16-17c 850mb temps over se mi supporting highs in the upper 80s.
height falls tied to this trough work into the area by thursday
morning however with slow progression of the attendant cold front
over the northern lake michigan, rain chances for the bulk of the
area (essentially outside the saginaw valley/thumb) don`t arrive
until afternoon. as such, these southern areas will see longer
duration of solar insolation allowing highs to again reach the upper
80s. earlier arrival of cloud/showers in the north look to cap temps
more towards the lower to mid 80s. scattered thundestorms within the
broader shower activity is probable, especially in the south given
the pm arrival, with long range models suggesting several hundred
j/kg of mlcape available. any severe potential however looking to be
hamstrung by mediocre wind profiles with soundings only advertising
~25kts of largely unidirectional shear. environment will be similar
to this past sunday`s wrt to localized heavy rainfall/flooding
threats as pw returns to around 1.75" in addition to warm cloud
depths in excess of 10kft and storm motions only around 20kts.

surface cold front eventually crosses the area friday ending the
heaviest rain chances. that said, weak post frontal northerly winds
could be slow to clear out humidity allowing persistent light
showers to linger for at least part of the day. to what degree drier
weather returns later friday into saturday also is dependent on a
secondary shortwave embedded within the zonal flow across the
central conus. still some disagreements in longer range model
solutions in the exact track, though a more northerly outcome would
keep wetter conditions around into the first part of the weekend.

marine...

high pressure to hold across the great lakes today which will
support light winds. this system will wash out across the appalachia
region during the midweek period, but the overall pressure gradient
will remain weak over the great lakes, maintaining lighter wind
speeds. a low pressure system and cold front will move through the
region thursday, bringing the next chance for rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.