Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
157
fxus61 kcle 191952
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
252 pm est mon jan 19 2026

.what has changed...
forecast confidence continues to increase that the coldest air
mass of this winter season will impact northern oh and nw pa
this friday and upcoming weekend. the following weather alerts
remain unchanged:

- wind advisory for portions of ne oh and nw pa remains in
effect until 7 pm this evening.
- winter weather advisory for lake-effect snow and blowing snow
in erie county, pa remains in effect until 7 am tuesday.
- the cold weather advisory for wind chills as cold as 15f to
20f below zero remains in effect until 12 pm tuesday for our
entire region.

&&

.key messages...
1) below-normal temperatures, overall, are expected through this
upcoming monday, january 26th.

2) blustery conditions persist into this early evening.

3) periods of lake-effect snow are expected downwind of lake
erie through this upcoming monday and should impact ne oh and nw
pa at times.

4) outside the lake-effect snow, periods of widespread
accumulating snow should impact our region through this upcoming
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
primarily below-normal temperatures are expected through sunday,
as net and deep troughing aloft, associated with an unusually-
cold air mass, persists over eastern canada and impacts at least
most of the eastern united states, including the great lakes
and oh valley. at the surface, our cwa is expected to primarily
reside in the cold sector based on the latest projected mid
latitude cyclone track. however, a warm front is still expected
to sweep ne`ward through our region tuesday night and be
followed by the e`ward passage of a strong cold front wednesday
evening into wednesday night. a stronger, reinforcing cold front
is expected to sweep se`ward through the lake erie region and
upper oh valley this friday.

prior to the warm front passage, lows are expected to reach the
single digits above 0f around daybreak tuesday, when wind
chills near -15f to -20f will be most widespread in our cwa.
afternoon highs should reach only 10f to the upper teens on
tuesday. lows should bottom-out near 5f to 10f with wind chills
as cold as 0f to -5f tuesday evening, before the warm front
ushers-in a warmer air mass originating over the gulf. on
wednesday, low-level waa in the warm sector should contribute
to highs reaching the lower to upper 30`s before the aforementioned
strong cold front passage. below-normal high and low
temperatures are then expected wedneday night through this
upcoming monday. for example, low temperatures should reach the
single digits below 0f in many northern oh and nw pa locales
around daybreak saturday and sunday, respectively. sub-zero
minimum wind chills will likely be a daily occurrence this
friday through monday. forecast trends will continue to be
monitored for the need for additional cold weather alerts.

key message 2...
behind the arctic front passage that occurred earlier today,
wsw`erly to w`erly surface winds will continue to gust up to 35
to 50 mph through this early evening due to the following: steep
low-level lapse rates and deep mechanical mixing of the boundary
layer amidst low-level winds/caa increasing with height,
respectively. the strongest gusts will continue to occur between
the lake erie shore and roughly i-90 in northeastern cuyahoga
county through erie county, pa due to the aforementioned reasons
combined with onshore surface flow amidst lake-induced
convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into the
stronger flow aloft. winds and gusts will ease noticeably around
and especially after sunset this evening as an arctic surface
ridge builds behind the front and the synoptic mslp gradient
relaxes gradually.

key message 3...
lake-effect snow (les) showers are expected to persist amidst a
cyclonic w`erly to wsw`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-
cold air over/downwind of the ~1c ice-free waters of lake erie
through this evening and thus impact much of the primary
snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa, especially along/near the lakeshore
due to frictional surface convergence. the les will be heavy at
times, with snowfall rates up to 1" per hour, due in part to
greater/deeper low-level moisture contributing to sizable lake-
induced instability. additional les accumulations are expected
to be 1-4". greatest additional snow accumulations are expected
in far-northeastern erie county, pa due to greater persistence
of les showers. considered expanding the winter weather advisory
w`ward and s`ward in the primary snowbelt, but the showery and
therefore periodic nature of the les and expected mean low-level
flow direction should limit additional snow accumulations to 3"
or less.

during tuesday morning through tuesday night, the les, amidst
continued favorable thermodynamics, should shift back n`ward and
out of our region as mean low-level flow backs to sw`erly ahead
of another shortwave trough poised to approach the lake erie
region generally from the west. most of wednesday should
feature a brief hiatus from les as the warm sector overspreads
lake erie and causes ice-free lake surface to 850 mb temperature
differences to shrink to less than 13c for a time. renewed les
development is expected wednesday night through thursday night,
amidst a favorable thermodynamic environment and w`erly to
sw`erly mean low-level flow behind the strong cold front
passage. thus, the les should impact at least portions of the
primary snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa at times and produce up to
several inches of fresh snow accumulation. thermodynamics and
kinematics should remain favorable for periods of les this
friday through upcoming monday. multiple shortwave trough
passages should cause mean low-level flow to vary between
primarily sw`erly and nw`erly. therefore, les should impact ne
oh and nw pa at times. however, exact mean low-level flow
direction and les placement, intensity, and amounts remain
uncertain at this time. note: surface winds should remain strong
enough over lake erie to prevent the lake from freezing-over
completely through early next week.

key message 4...
periods of widespread snow, outside the aforementioned les,
should impact northern oh and nw pa overnight tuesday night
through next sunday due to moist isentropic ascent ahead of
shortwave trough axes, moist isentropic ascent along the upper-
reaches of the warm front tuesday night, and low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the expected cold front passages
wednesday evening into wednesday night and again on friday. our
official snowfall forecast, which is valid through thursday
night, calls for a coating to 3" of fresh snow accumulation
outside the les. the general snow should yield additional
accumulations this friday through upcoming weekend, but exact
amounts remain uncertain at this juncture.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
a band of heavy lake enhanced snow is ongoing across lake erie
along the northeast ohio shoreline and focused towards erie
pennsylvania. erie is likely to experience occasional heavy
snow showers with visibilities as low as a quarter mile at times
through late afternoon, then starting to decrease as this band
continues to lift north over the lake this evening. elsewhere
snow is decreasing and becoming light but areas of blowing snow
are still contributing to occasional ifr visibilities down to 1
mile with west southwest winds gusting to 30-35 knots. will
hold onto the lower conditions through the afternoon with
visibilities starting to improve after 22z as wind gusts start
to drop off. high pressure will build in from the southwest
overnight and we may see some breaks in the clouds at times,
particularly towards findlay. otherwise, much of the area will
hold onto a stratocu deck of 2500-3500 feet overnight.

outlook...areawide light snow is expected on wednesday,
followed by lake effect snow impacting northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania wednesday night into thursday. areawide
light snow may occur on friday.

&&

.marine...
marine conditions will be very rough with unsettled weather on
lake erie this week. there will be 3 main marine hazards that we
are expecting to be have impacts on lake erie over the next
several days. a low pressure system is tracking across the upper
great lakes this morning with an arctic cold front that will
sweep across lake erie by midday. strong southwesterly to
westerly winds will increase 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 45
knots over lake erie today behind the cold front. in the open
water that remain ice free, waves will build 10 to 15 feet
today. areas that are closer to the nearshore marine zones will
be 5 to 9 feet that are ice free. there is currently ice along
the entire southern shore of lake erie which extends outward
from the immediate lakeshore from cleveland to northwest
pennsylvania. most of the western basin of lake erie west of
cleveland and around the islands is now ice covered with limited
open water.

gale warnings go into effect early this morning and continue into
the evening and or overnight hours. the gale warnings will slowly be
taken down from west to east across lake erie as the winds slightly
decrease below that threshold. west to southwest winds will remain
elevated 20 to 30 knots late tonight through the middle of the week.
wave heights will also remain elevated and very rough through almost
the entire week. there is a heavy freezing spray warning today
though much of tuesday for the central and eastern basin of lake
erie. with the combination of strong gusty winds and arctic cold
temperatures, heavy freezing spray will be likely in the open waters
of lake erie. the other marine concern is for the western basin from
the lake erie islands to the toledo area in regards to water levels
that will likely fall today below the critical mark for safe marine
navigation. there is the potential for4 the water levels to fall
several feet below the critical mark. but there is some uncertainty
on how this will play out due to most of the lake is ice covered in
the western basin. the lowest water levels will occur this afternoon
into the early evening before they slowly rebound back upward later
tonight.

there will be another weather system wednesday into thursday that
will bring an increase in west to southwest winds nearing gales
potentially. during that timeframe of stronger winds, water levels
in the western basin may drop again to near or below the critical
mark. strong gusty winds and very rough conditions will continue
through the end of this week.

an arctic airmass will continue to flow over the great lakes and
over lake erie for much of this week. the coldest temperatures will
arrive late this weekend through next weekend which will contribute
in ice formation. generally moderate ice growth is expected across
lake erie this week into the weekend, with the limiting factor to
rapid ice growth being strong winds. this will also likely cause
significant drifting of existing weaker ice.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until noon est tuesday for ohz003-
006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037.
cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to noon est
tuesday for ohz010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089.
wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz011-012-014-
089.
pa...cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to noon est
tuesday for paz001>003.
wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for paz001-002.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est tuesday for paz001-002.
marine...gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez142>145-
162>165.
low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning until 1 am est tuesday for lez146>149-166>169.
heavy freezing spray warning until 1 pm est tuesday for
lez146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...10
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
776
fxus63 kiwx 191720
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1220 pm est mon jan 19 2026

.key messages...
- lake effect snow continues today on into tuesday. the heaviest
falls this morning and continues to weaken through the period.
additional snow amounts total 2 to 4 inches across the
advisory locations in mi, whereas less than 2 inches
additional snow is forecast for the indiana counties in the
advisory.

- dangerous wind chills around 15 below zero expected late today
through early tuesday.

- another fast moving system will bring some light snow
accumulations tuesday night into early wednesday, especially
along and north of the toll road. still, another system
provides snow and lake effect snow for wednesday night and
thursday.

- temperatures moderate back into the lower 30s briefly
wednesday, but temperatures turn colder once again for latter
portions of work week into next weekend.

&&

.update...
issued at 1040 am est mon jan 19 2026

a vigorous snow band associated with post-frontal arctic
boundary has transitioned more into a lake effect snow setup
this morning. a low level baroclinic zone appears to have been
sharpened due to southern great lakes thermal modification to
produce a narrow band of low level fgen that aided in a strong
snow band that pushed across portions of north central/northeast
indiana. this band also was co-located at the leading edge of a
strong 500 mb vorticity advection. the low level fgen forcing
has weakened with eastward extent which has allowed this
synoptically forced band to transition to more of a pure lake
effect setup. even areas which experienced very light snow
accumulations of an inch or less, post-frontal wind gusts to 30
to 35 mph will result in patchy/areas of blowing snow into this
afternoon. the strongest winds have been noted briefly along
strongest isallobaric gradient with the arctic front (40-45
mph), but these magnitudes are beginning to depart nw ohio.

lake effect snow showers will continue in westerly fetch regime
through the afternoon, although snow accumulation efficiency may
struggle somewhat as thermal profiles fall out of the optimal
dgz region due to the strength of caa. multiband setup should
produce variable accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (locally 4?) of
additional accumulations north of i-80 into this afternoon. did
extend the winter weather advisory into branch and hillsdale
based on some observational impacts from even light snow amounts
this morning.

given slightly stronger winds than expected, did go ahead and
move up all of the cold weather advisories to be valid at
current time, with no change to ending time (14z tuesday am).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 308 am est mon jan 19 2026

cold air advection was entering the area this morning behind the
arctic front and this sets up two hazards for monday.

the first of which is the snow. lake effect snow is underway across
the area as southwest winds veer more west northwesterly today.
favorable trajectories, ample theta-e instability, and low level
moisture all make the atmosphere conducive to lake effect snow.
initial lake induced inversion up between 7500 and 8500 ft fall
slowly during the day today indicating the intensity of lake effect
snow is expected to slowly slacken through the period, which is also
evident by the general tendency to lose low level moisture. another
negative for this is that while we have good omega cross hairs with
the dgz, the moisture is actually much higher in the atmosphere
meaning we`re getting more plates than dendrites lowering the slr a
little. still, given the cold air, the dry snow and gusty winds,
initially gusting 30 to 35 mph that do relax a little to more like
25 to 30 mph by day`s end, allow for hazardous driving due to
lowered visibility from blowing snow, but also from drifting snow,
especially on n-s roads. as a strong shortwave crosses lake mi this
morning it looks to turn those trajectories more westerly and
increase snow rates until around 12 or 13z when the surface trough
pushes eastward away from the lake influence. light lake effect snow
is expected to continue this afternoon into early tuesday.

the other hazard is the very cold air. a cold weather advisory
has been issued for wind chills that dip down to -15f. it is a
delayed arrival from what one would normally expect, which is to
get the deepest cold in the early morning and then have
temperatures increase during the day diurnally. this time, we
actually the coldest wind chills mid morning before the winds
slowly relax, but the temperatures stay in the mid to upper
single digits and low teens through the day today. given the 850
mb stay in the -20s celsius today and tonight, we have the cold
weather advisory lasting into tuesday morning. temperatures are
securely into the mid to potentially lower single digits away
from the lake cloud blanket, but the winds are 10 to 20 mph
weaker tuesday am. high pressure passing by to our south tuesday
morning allows waa to begin to work into the area so, while
today`s highs struggle to get out of the teens, low 20f degree
temperatures begin to poke into our southwest tuesday afternoon.


mid level ridging and the waa`s southwest trajectories spell an end
to the lake effect snow tuesday afternoon. however, a clipper system
is hot on the waning precipitation`s heels for wednesday. a theta-e
plume and gulf connection is notable in models with this system as
it passes by just to the north of the area meaning it will have to
be interrogated for some snow accumulations as it passes by. it will
also have a lake enhancement response on its back side although it
does appear that the nam beh bufkit soundings indicate much weaker
lake induced instability and dry air in the lowest levels.

better omega cross hairs with overlaid moisture occurs for a
brief period wednesday night as another clipper moves through
the area, but there is also indications of riming on the flakes
with the omega center at or just below the dgz. this system has
a higher dew point plume, but does appear to have a weaker
connection to the gulf this time around, which would indicate
weaker accumulations than the wednesday system. the clipper
system is out of the area by thursday morning and there will be
a lake response on its back side.

it looks like still another clipper system arrives thursday night,
but that looks much drier and not with much gulf connection. there`s
also a lake response behind it again.

the cold that follows this clipper system for friday morning is
quite deep with the -25c contour passing through the area and the
negative 30c contour in play. further evidence to the strong
cold air is the anomalous 1050 mb high pressure system that
passes through the area saturday/saturday night.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1214 pm est mon jan 19 2026

in the wake of an arctic frontal passage this morning, gusty
west winds, blowing snow, and ongoing scattered lake effect are
making for an active start to the week. winds have been
sustained around 20 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts; winds will
gradually start to relax this evening, but gusts to 20 kts will
still be possible overnight, especially near lake michigan. as
scattered lake effect snow showers continue near and north of
i-80/i-90, the gusty west winds are also leading to areas of
blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility. until winds
start to diminish this evening, expect the blowing snow and
reduced visibilities to persist. visibilities are generally mvfr
away from the lake and ifr to potentially even lifr closer to
the lake (where winds are stronger and more snow is on the
ground to blow around). ksbn continues to see 1/4 mile
visibility as of midday, while kfwa has averaged about 3 miles.
lake effect tapers off this evening and skies will clear out
overnight away from the lake. expect winds to continue from the
west tomorrow, although not as strong as today.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening
for inz005-103-104-204.
cold weather advisory until 9 am est /8 am cst/ tuesday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...cold weather advisory until 9 am est tuesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 9 am est tuesday for miz080-081.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est tuesday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning until 7 am est tuesday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
064
fxus63 kdtx 191957
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
257 pm est mon jan 19 2026

.key messages...

- winter weather advisory in effect through tuesday morning for a
combination of winter hazards.

- potential for lake effect snow showers through tonight,
particularly between m 59 and i 94. accumulation from a dusting to
locally up to 2 inches possible.

- dangerously cold wind chills of -5 to -15f tonight into tuesday
morning.

- another round of accumulating snow arrives late tuesday night and
wednesday, impacting the am commute.

- arctic air returns friday and remains across the area through the
weekend. potential for minimum wind chill to fall below -15f
saturday and sunday mornings.

&&

.discussion...

high magnitude cold air advection well underway late this afternoon.
the ongoing advective process within a firm west-northwest gradient
contributing to cratering wind chill in blustery conditions as
improving convective depth captures a 30-35 knot wind field just off
the surface. gusts peaking into the 40 to 50 mph at times. lake
michigan moisture flux in west-northwest flow yielding a solid
downstream lake effect response within the background of mid level
cyclonic flow, as focused areas of convergence continue to direct
scattered to numerous bursts of snow showers into the typically
prone belt between i-69 and i-94. perpetuation of this activity
expected through tonight in some form, but with some nocturnal
contraction and possible strengthening of convergence supporting a
transition toward one or more dominant linear bands. inherent
variability in accumulation potential with expectation for some
fluctuation in trajectory, duration and magnitude. less ideal
microphysics with snow growth above the dgz may favor a drier and
more powdery/granular snow carrying less accumulation efficiency.
dusting to less than an inch most locations, but with locally higher
amounts plausible within heavier bursts within the m-59 to i-94
corridor. minimum in wind chill thursday morning arrives in the
vicinity of -10 to -15 most locations. the thumb region and areas
south of i-94 are most vulnerable to a dip below this mark. all told,
combination of lingering gustiness this evening, continued lake
effect potential and the notable drop in wind chill into tonight best
highlighted with the ongoing winter weather advisory to maintain a
consistent message.

modest 24 hour recovery in the upper height field noted tuesday and
tuesday night, as the governing lower height anomaly temporarily
retreats northward. prevailing low level westerly flow with arctic
air entrenched will maintain some degree of downstream lake moisture
flux through the daylight period. the existing lake cloud maintains
the possibility for some very light snow/flurry production, but with
limited accumulation potential given unsupportive microphysics
inherent within the resident arctic profile. daylight wind chill
holding below zero degrees. the arctic cold will moderate slightly
into tuesday night as warm air advection briefly takes hold, with
coldest conditions likely during the evening before slowly rising.

shortwave noted on water vapor late this afternoon ejecting
southeast across british columbia projected to accelerate through
the base of the broader central canadian longwave trough over the
next 36 hours, reaching the great lakes wednesday morning.
associated ascent tied to ongoing warm air advection arrives locally
early wednesday morning. supportive moisture quality and depth to
generate a period of accumulating snow. probabilistic data points to
a general accumulation residing mainly within the 1 to 2 inch range.
the advective process will bring temps back into upper 20s/lower
30s, offering a brief reprieve before the trailing cold front
arrives late in the day. increase in wind magnitude within the
immediate post-frontal environment may bring some gustiness to 40
mph wed afternoon. yet another wave embedded within the northwest
flow could present a quick shot for accumulating snow thursday
morning.

polar low set to take residence just north of lake superior to
finish the work week. attendant arctic front marking the coldest air
of the season /850 mb temps below -30c/ currently projected to
arrive friday. the frontal feature, possibly in conjunction with
still less-defined shortwave energy, may offer another round of
light accumulating snow. more noteworthy will be the extended
stretch of high magnitude cold expected to persist through the
remainder of the forecast period and likely right through the end of
the month. multiple days of sub-zero wind chill with the likelihood
of headline worthy readings at times.

&&

.marine...

mature low pressure slides along the far northern lake huron
shoreline into eastern ontario this morning. strongest gradient
response occurs over the southern great lakes during this time
bringing potential gales across lakes st clair and erie through the
afternoon. for lake huron, gale potential remains tied to the arctic
cold front offering a 3-5hr window to see gusts in excess of 34kts.
given its proximity to the low center, the far northern waters
continue have the lowest chance to see gales with the bulk of
strongest winds expected over the central/southern open waters. due
to the stronger winds and cold airmass, heavy freezing spray is
likely in all non-ice covered waters of lake huron. while gales
taper off by monday evening with the departure of the clipper, the
region will remain under broad troughing over the eastern continent
allowing additional systems to track over/near the region
maintaining at least moderate winds (>20kts), snow showers, and
freezing spray through most of the week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1220 pm est mon jan 19 2026

aviation...

westerly winds sustained aoa 20 knots with gusts aoa 35+ knots
continue this afternoon, leading to some blowing snow and visibility
reduction at times. otherwise, chaotic ceilings and big breaks in
the clouds with still a risk of a snow squall hitting the airports
during the daytime hours, in addition to some light snow showers.
wind and coverage of activity diminishes this evening and tonight,
but concern for a narrow lake band(s) to set up between the m-59 and
i-94 corridors, which could put down an inch or more of fluffy snow.
ptk seems to have the best chance and longest duration for snow
shower activity tonight into tomorrow morning. still, there is a low
risk the band sets up around kyip/kdtw. either way, airmass is so
cold, going to be easy to get very light snow showers from time to
time into tuesday morning. mbs has the best chance of being ceiling
free through much of the night.

for dtw...vfr cigs outside of any periods of snow showers/blowing
snow reducing cigs and visibilities. with winds still gusting around
35 knots, can still expected short lived ifr/lifr visibilities in
snow showers and blowing snow in line with upstream obs for several
more hours. this evening and tonight remains a challenge determining
if terminal will be downwind of the lake michigan plume or just
south, and will leave in the prob30 mention for snow under 1 mile
until confidence increases one way or the other.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet through tomorrow.

* high to exceed crosswind threshold this afternoon.

* low in visibility below 1/2sm in blowing snow through 22z today.

* high for precip type being snow.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am est tuesday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 10 am est tuesday for lhz361>363-
462>464.

gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lhz362-363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez444.

low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.