Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
766
fxus61 kcle 082003
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
403 pm edt mon jun 8 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in locally heavy rainfall resulting in localized
flooding is increasing for tuesday. temperatures will also be a
few degrees lower tuesday due to the clouds and precipitation.

&&

.key messages...
1) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight into the
weekend. highest chances for precipitation will be tuesday
afternoon and late thursday afternoon through friday morning.

2) hot and humid wednesday and thursday with heat indices near
or over 100 in some areas followed by slightly cooler and less
humid conditions friday through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an active weather day is expected tuesday as a mid-level
shortwave and associated vort max lift through the great lakes
and temporarily create a weakness in the mid/upper ridge. the
surface low tied to this feature is currently spinning over the
mid mississippi valley, with a warm front extending southeast
across the ohio river valley. this low will slowly lift through
the western and central great lakes late tonight and tuesday
allowing the warm front to bulge gradually northeastward into
the southern great lakes. this warm front will usher in much
richer low-level moisture, with pwats surging to near 2 inches
(near max daily climatology for june 9) as dew points rise into
the low 70s. this low-level moisture combined with slightly
cooler 850-700 mb temps as the mid-level shortwave progresses by
will allow for decent coverage of diurnal convection with
daytime heating tuesday.

initial showers and a few thunderstorms will move sw to ne
across the region late tonight and early tuesday morning as warm
air advection and isentropic ascent increase ahead of the warm
front. these will be low-impact, but brief heavy rain could
occur in the strongest cells. the greatest coverage of
convection is expected tuesday afternoon and evening as weak
upper diffluence on the se flank of the shortwave overspreads
the region and interacts with daytime heating (moderate
instability of 1000-1500 mlcape). given the very moist
environment described above and a skinny cape profile, very
heavy/efficient rainfall will occur within any thunderstorms.
this could produce localized flash flooding of low-lying and
poor drainage areas, particularly if any training occurs. the
good news is that antecedent conditions are mostly dry, but
training with these types of rainfall rates could still cause
localized issues. contemplated a flash flood watch with
neighboring offices, but the location of the heaviest rainfall
is highly uncertain. cams generally show scattered convection
and offer differing solutions on location. in general, the
heaviest showers and storms should start in nw and north central
ohio around midday and slowly shift to near the pa border by
evening ahead of a weak surface trough/cold front trailing from
the low. given the coverage and location uncertainties, opted to
just message the threat in the hwo, weather story, and social
media.

severe weather is generally not expected tuesday afternoon and
evening, but deep layer effective shear of 20-25 knots and an
increase in 0-1 and 0-3 srh to 100-150 m2/s2 could be just
enough to cause some rotation within some of the convection, so
cannot rule out a brief spin up tornado somewhere, especially
since lcl heights will be low given the water loaded
environment.

the mid/upper ridge will become reestablished wednesday and
thursday over the eastern conus ahead of a strong mid/upper
trough progressing into the northern plains. this combined with
strong deep layer wsw flow will advect an elevated mixed layer
(eml) across the region and reduce the coverage of convection,
especially wednesday. nevertheless, some widely scattered
diurnal convection will develop again wednesday afternoon, with
better chances thursday afternoon and evening as the ridge
starts to break down ahead of the mid/upper trough and
associated cold front. as this front crosses the region late
thursday night and friday morning, a more organized line of
showers and thunderstorms is possible. this could produce
another round of heavy rainfall in some areas. the overnight and
morning timing is not favorable for widespread severe weather,
but a decaying squall line with damaging wind potential will
need to be monitored, especially for nw ohio which is currently
on the edge of a day 4 severe weather outlook from the spc.
quasi-zonal flow behind this front will cause the boundary to
become quasi-stationary near the region late friday and
saturday followed by a stronger cold front sunday, so a few
isolated showers/storms could continue friday afternoon through
saturday, then a better chance saturday night and sunday with
the next cold front.

key message 2...
hot and humid conditions are still expected wednesday and
thursday under the strong mid/upper ridge and deep wsw flow. h85
temps of 20-22 c advecting into the region, decent mixing, and
ensemble guidance all support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
this combined with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s will
yield heat indices near or over 100f in some areas. early season
heat can be more dangerous, so extra precautions will need to be
taken to stay cool and hydrated. temperatures and dew points
will begin to fall behind the cold front friday, but it will
remain seasonably warm and humid until the second cold front
brings more significantly cooler and drier air by sunday and
monday.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
for this afternoon, we`re watching an area of cumulus clouds
that have developed across parts of northwest ohio (thinking the
kmfd-kfdy-ktol area). a few models have some isolated to
scattered showers, with a low chance for lightning. limited
coverage and low confidence precedes a tsra mention in the taf
at this time.

an area of showers and thunderstorms near an advancing warm
front is expected to move across the area tonight and tomorrow.
this is some confidence in an area of showers with embedded
isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight. confidence is
higher in our western taf sites (ktol/kfdy) for lightning, where
a tempo tsra was included. picked a four hour window where it
was most likely, but there is a low chance of it occurring for
most of tonight. there is also a low chance for lightning at
kmfd/kcle but the risk of lightning decreases the farther east
you go into our forecast area tonight. periods of mvfr & ifr
ceilings/visibilities are possible tonight, and is most likely
to occur at western taf sites.

for tomorrow, showers are likely to linger across eastern taf
sites (kyng/keri), followed by additional development of showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon somewhere in western ohio
(confidence very low in the location for this).

southerly winds less than 10 knots are expected this afternoon,
except for locations impacted by a lake breeze (mainly
keri/kcle, maybe ktol). that continues tonight before strong
southerly flow develops tuesday afternoon, with gusts to around
20-25 knots possible.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms through friday.

&&

.marine...
east to northeast flow around 15 knots continues through early
tonight before weakening and become south to southeast tonight
ahead of an approaching warm front. the warm front works its way
eastward across the lake tuesday afternoon through tuesday
night, with winds becoming southwest around 10 to 15 knots and
persisting through at least friday morning before a cold front
crosses lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
785
fxus63 kiwx 081742
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
142 pm edt mon jun 8 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity is on the increase through thursday, with
highs in the mid-upper 80s and 90s and lows in the 60s to mid
70s. heat indices on wednesday and thursday will be around 100
degrees. a greater than 50 percent chance for 90 degree high
temps exists on wednesday for a large part of the forecast
area.

- daily chances (generally 40-80 percent) for showers and storms
this week. spc has portions of our area in a marginal risk for
severe weather for wednesday evening into wednesday night,
with damaging winds the main threat. severe weather is also
possible on thursday. confidence in severe weather occurring
is low to medium.

- lower chances (20-50 percent) for showers and storms continue
through the weekend, with temps cooling into the low to mid
80s by sunday and decreasing humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1159 am edt mon jun 8 2026

between today and wednesday, a slowly southeastward moving high
pressure system takes over in the bermuda high area and sets up a
relatively weak southeastern conus ridge. this puts the area in a
warm advection pattern that continues into late week when a cold
front pushes through thursday night or friday morning. meanwhile, a
moderately vigorous shortwave that`s slowly weakening moves
northeastward through the great lakes into into canada by wednesday.
as a result, unsettled weather in the form of showers and
thunderstorms will be common as 70 degree dew points creep into the
area and mucape reaches to between 1000 to 2000 j/kg at times during
this period. the wednesday and thursday period seems to have the
greatest instability as it passes 2000 j/kg of mucape.

for this afternoon into tonight, a more moist airmass pushes into
the area and the hrrr seems to show cells pushing into areas west of
i-69 before dissipating. with the 70 degree dew points pushing in at
the surface and 850 mb dew points running from 10 to 15c, this will
create an environment for locally heavy rain.

for tuesday, both the nam and the gfs have the greatest effective
shear (30 to 40 kts) in what appears to be the time where
suppression behind the vort max moves in and weak height rises
appear to ensue. so that while we have moisture, instability, shear,
and an eml advecting in, the limiting factor for tuesday`s chance
for thunderstorms to go severe will be lift. there are periods of
large scale ascent advecting through in the progressive flow so
maybe that could be enough to set something off? this may mean
tuesday`s severe weather chance will rely on advecting in already
strong storms if it`s going to produce severe weather.

for wednesday, a few relatively weak shortwaves move through in the
flow and as mentioned earlier, strong instability is across the area
with plenty of moisture. we`ve also got a lingering eml. perhaps
this environment is enough to get some severe weather because, while
it appears the better shear may stay to our west, we may be able to
advect stronger storms into the area and have the better mid level
lapse rates maintain severity of the storms. the better large scale
ascent does appear to stay in mi though. damaging wind and some hail
will be the most likely possibility with helicity lacking in the
hodograph, but flooding cannot be ruled out from the repeated storm
chances and moist atmospheric column.

for thursday, a strong shortwave moves from the central rockies late
wednesday night up into the northwest great lakes late thursday.
this pushes a relatively strong surface low pressure system into the
area thursday. again, strong instability and moisture will be around
the area, but the low`s track may keep it just far enough west to
restrict forcing to northwest of the area until thursday night/
friday with the cold front. by this time, we`ve lost the eml and we
still only have 20 kts of effective shear at most. so, again severe
weather could be possible, but we`d have to rely on cell collisions
or advecting in something elsewhere to produce something
substantial.

another aspect of this period is that as the bermuda high pressure
system sets up, warmth and moisture moves towards the area. at the
same time that we have the 70 degree dew points, we`ve also got 850
mb temperatures that surpass 18c, which with good mixing would make
90 degree surface temperatures also possible creating a heat
advisory situation. of course, the fly in this ointment is the
thunderstorm chances. the closer we get to wednesday and thursday,
the better chance we`d have an idea about if thunderstorms or cloud
cover would around to affect our warming for these days. on
wednesday, the greatest chance to see 90 degree temps is highest (50
to 100%) west of in-15 and along us-24. elsewhere has more like 30
to 50% chance, mainly north of us-24 and east of in-15. thursday`s
chance is more marginal with areas east of i-69 having the best
chance (greater than 50% chance). additionally, wednesday night has
min apparent temperatures bottoming out around the low 70s which
indicates the difficulty to see any recovery (cooling) period at
night. the cold front pushes through friday and allows highs to fall
back into the 80s and 70s into the following monday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 140 pm edt mon jun 8 2026

no significant changes to previous forecast. vfr conditions to
start the period, with brief dips to mvfr/ifr this afternoon and
evening as showers and storms move through the terminals. more
persistent mvfr to ifr conditions towards the end of the period
as a system moves through the area. ceilings could drop towards
the 400-600 ft level, but for now only have them dropping to 700
ft for now.

regarding shower/thunderstorm activity, timing/specific location
continues to be difficult to pin down, but handled with prob30s
until convection begins to develop on radar. for now have most
activity from 20z-21z start time, and persisting into the
overnight hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd/cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
028
fxus63 kdtx 081905
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
305 pm edt mon jun 8 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms tonight and tuesday will pose a locally heavy
rainfall threat. the potential exists for isolated damaging wind gusts with any
thunderstorm activity tuesday afternoon and evening.

- heat and humidity will build over southeast michigan for wednesday and
thursday. afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s with heat
indices potentially climbing into the upper 90s. a heat advisory may eventually
be needed.

- thunderstorms will be possible wednesday and thursday. the most likely
timeframe for organized severe thunderstorms may be late thursday as a cold
front approaches the area.

- not as warm and much less humid friday and next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

deep column high pressure will build out of the eastern great lakes
towards the eastern seaboard tonight. in response, gradient flow
will steadily veer to the south by tuesday. the main narrative over
the next 24 to 36 hours will be rich thetae advection into the
forecast area that will cause pwats to climb toward 2.00 inches.
surface dewpoints on tuesday are expected to be in the low 70s.
scattered, high based shower chances begin this evening with lead
spoke of absolute vorticity lifting into the area. modest cooling
above 12.0 kft agl should result in weak elevated instability that
could support a shower or rumble of thunder. static stability in the
lowest 8.0 kft agl will limit any strong thunderstorm threat today.

warmer and much more humid for tuesday. old, convectively augmented
low pressure circulation will drift slowly eastward from southern
wisconsin through northern lower michigan and the northern lake
huron basin. southeast michigan will be situated solidly within the
moisture transport axis for the first half of the day before a weak
cold front feature pushes across between 20-04z. projected cape
values tuesday afternoon are expected peak in the 1750-2250 j/kg
range with 0-6km bulk shear 25 knots. low shear limits convective
organization and convective vigor potential but high pwats suggests
wet microbursts and water loading possibly leading to an isolated
damaging wind gust threat between 19-04z time window. a bigger
threat may be isolated flooding potential with heavy downpours. the
latest spc day 2 outlook has southeast michigan designated as
general thunderstorm.

a longwave ridge will expand in wavelength while centering over the
central great lakes wednesday and into at least the first part of
thursday. the associated geopotential thickness increase will result
in another uptick in surface temperatures reaching 90 degrees or
more for wednesday and thursday with heat indices well into the 90s
and potentially making a run at 100 degrees. heat headlines may be
needed. 800-600mb lapse rates are forecasted to be steep enough to
result in sbcape reaching 3000 j/kg. from a dynamics perspective
model signal supports larger scale subsidence and capping with the
ridge parked overhead and episodic anticyclonic vorticity advection
timed out for both midday periods wednesday and thursday. the low
confidence portion of the forecast hinges on the subsequent tracking
of any upstream mcs tracking towards lower michigan. the important
note for wednesday is 0-6km bulk shear values at 20 knots or less
for the entire period bringing question to whether or not convection
will be organized if it does make a run at southeast michigan. the
latest swody2 has a marginal risk designation merely brushing up
again southeast michigan. the period of most concern for strong to
severe thunderstorms may be thursday evening and thursday night as
the upper level trough advances towards the state. models support
stronger wind field aloft and kinematics finally arriving late with
850mb winds climbing above 50 knots. the latest day4 outlook for spc
has southeast michigan designated as 15% for severe thunderstorms.
more seasonable weather conditions look likely for friday and the
upcoming weekend as a cold front sweeps out the humidity.

&&

.marine...

high pressure over new england migrates to the mid-atlantic this
evening, maintaining southeast wind on the order of 10 kt into
tonight. weak low pressure tracks into southern lake michigan on
tuesday before passing across lake huron tuesday night. this brings
in a humid air mass with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms during this period. winds will carry a degree of
variability as the low tracks through, but remain around 10 kt
outside of any localized higher gusts within storms. a warm and
unstable air mass will take residence wednesday and thursday,
bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. flow will
be predominantly out of the west and southwest with potential for
gusts upwards of 20 kt at times.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt mon jun 8 2026

aviation...

column moistening is underway this afternoon as flow organizes out
of the south (above 5 kft agl), responding to an inbound shortwave
drifting across wisconsin, toward lake michigan. lots of dry air
still exists, delaying the time until elevated showers are able to
precipitate and lift into the terminals this evening/overnight ahead
of an elevated warm frontal boundary. instability will struggle to
materialize at the start, favoring initial thunderless convective
showers. models disagree as to when moisture and mid-level cooling
will suffice for convection to develop more broadly, and with
stronger updrafts to support thunder. tempo-ed in an initial window
for -tsra late tonight into the early hours on tuesday (09-13z) when
conditions appear more ripe. low confidence in the coverage of
thunder with this initial round. a lull in activity will be possible
mid-morning tuesday before the boundary layer matures heading into
the afternoon hours. this favors initiation of the next round of
scattered thunderstorms after 17z. in terms of cig/vsby concerns,
ceilings fill in and lower to mvfr with time tonight. should
thunderstorms cross a terminal, expect brief ifr drops in
visibilities.

d21/dtw convection...there is a low chance for thunderstorms late
tonight into early tuesday morning. low confidence in the first wave
of possible convection reaching dtw, or at least while being capable
of producing thunder. tempo-ed in -tsra from 09-13z. better coverage
of thunder arises through the tuesday afternoon diurnal cycle, thus
a prob30 for convection was added after 17z tuesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this evening, then
high overnight and tuesday.

* low to medium for thunderstorms 09z through 13z tuesday, then
medium after 17z tuesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......tf
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.