Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
752 pm edt tue apr 14 2026

.what has changed...
scattered thunderstorms are moving into the area on the
northern fringe of a stronger complex moving into west central
ohio. hail has been the primary threat upstream but an isolated
severe wind threat is also possible over the next couple hours.
an enhanced risk now clips far nw oh with strong winds the
primary concern, but large hail and a tornado or two still
possible.

confidence continues to increase in the heavy rainfall potential
trough wednesday night. a flood watch has been issued across nw oh
from 00z wednesday to 12z thursday.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through thursday
with an additional potential on saturday as the active pattern
continues. all hazards are at play.

2) there is increasing concern about the potential for flooding
across the area. a flood watch has been issued for portions
northwest ohio.

3) above normal temperatures will continue through saturday
before cooler temperatures return sunday into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a very active pattern will bring the potential for multiple rounds
of severe weather today, wednesday, thursday and again on saturday.
focusing on the remainder of today/tonight first, there is currently
a slight risk across much of the area (marginal risk in nwpa) for
the potential of strong to severe storms producing strong winds,
large hail, and non-zero potential for tornadoes. the atmosphere
appears to be destabilizing quickly this afternoon after the morning
round of convection moved east. dewpoints have climbed into the 60s
with strong southwest waa. patches of clearly skies are also being
observed, further enhancing the daytime heating. as a result, sbcape
has already climbed to 1000 to 2000 j/kg across the western
counties, allowing for an area of storms to develop. these storms
may continue to ride the theta-e gradient towards the northeast, but
are expected to weaken as the environment becomes less conducive.
with that being said, these pop up showers will likely be possible
through much of the afternoon, even with an overall lack of large
scale support.

the larger concern for severe weather across northern ohio will be
tonight as a llj and mid-level shortwave traverse the region. these
components should enhance ongoing convection upstream of the area,
which will ultimately push east. best thought on timing at this
point is onset near toledo between 3-5z wednesday, gradually
spreading east. the path of the system should closely mirror the
warm front that will be established north of the area, keeping the
greatest severe potential along and north of us30. with that being
said, strong outflow colliding with an unstable atmosphere further
south will have the potential for additional convection to develop
along those boundaries, which is the primary reason spc has shifted
the day 1 severe outlook further south. through tonight there will
be many moving parts that will have to be monitored, making this
forecast extremely tricky and maintaining rather low confidence at
this point. all hazards will be at play, although the tornado threat
should be isolated to any storms that develop ahead of the main mcs.

now shifting to the remainder of the week. multiple shortwaves and
surface low pressures are expected to traverse the region, bringing
the potential for additional severe weather on both wednesday and
thursday. both days, the severe potential will be highly dependent
on how well the atmosphere recovers after overnight/early morning
convection. on wednesday, right now the best timing looks to be in
the afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being strong
winds, although large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
spc has highlighted much of the area in a day 2 slight risk. on
thursday, a slightly more defined, yet still weak cold front will
push east early in the day. this frontal boundary would likely be
the focus of any convection and to highlight this spc has pus the
western portion of the area in a marginal risk.

last but not least, there is also a severe weather potential on
saturday as a deepening upper level trough pushes into the region
with strong synoptic support and a strong cold front pushing east.
given this is rather far out, not going to dive into the details as
they will likely change, but to highlight this risk spc has
highlight much of the cwa in a 15% probability of severe weather on
day 5.

tldr: there are multiple chances of severe weather through thursday
with all hazards at play. timing and intensity remain uncertain at
this point. a potent trough will push east this weekend, moving a
strong cold front east on saturday and resulting in another
potential round of severe weather. spc has highlighted all of these
concerns in the various severe weather outlooks.

key message 2...
with this very warm and moist airmass, similar more to late
spring/early summer conditions, heavy rainfall associated with
convection is likely. modeled pwat values of 1.25-2" are expected to
persist into thursday as sustain southwesterly flow continues to
stream deep layer moisture across the region. although qpf totals
remain very uncertain, especially given the uncertainty in the
various rounds of convection, there is a good chance of very
efficient rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour in the strongest storms.
these rates are supported by a deepening warm cloud layer and
periods where a skinny cape profile are predominant in modeled
soundings. in addition, some of the convection should be enhanced by
a strengthening llj that nudges northeast into the region, which
will further enhance heavy rainfall potential. these conditions
combined with recent heavy precipitation across the area may result
in localized flooding and rises in streams and rivers, especially in
areas that receive multiple rounds of convection. given the
increasing confidence in the heavy rainfall potential, a flood watch
has been issued for portions of nw oh beginning at 00z wednesday
through 12z thursday. will have to continue to monitor the evolution
of storms over the next 48 hours to determine any additional
hydrologic headline needed.

key message 3...
as recently discussed in most of the afds, northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania continue to reside in a pattern of above
average temperatures with daily highs into the 70s and overnight lows
in the 60s. these temperatures will persist through saturday before
a strong cold front pushes east and cools temperatures back to near
average for this time of year. high temperatures on sunday and into
early next week will only climb into the 50s with overnight lows
dropping into the 30s. given the prolonged warmth the area has seen
this week, the growing season has officially begun for all of the
ohio counties in the cwa. with the cool down expected, will have to
monitor for any frost potential early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
cluster of thunderstorms moving into west central ohio has been
producing scattered large hail. thunderstorms are starting to
expand into north central ohio as moisture increases. ceilings
have generally been vfr upstream but could briefly drop to ifr
if the core of a storm moves overhead over the next couple
hours. expecting a general weakening trend as storms continue
to the northeast through 03z.

next we turn our attention to a larger complex of storms over
wisconsin. this larger complex of thunderstorms looks to
approach the toledo area after 05z and could be strong to severe
while also producing heavy rainfall. have tried to time this
feature southeast across the local area but uncertainty does
remain in storm evolution and refinements will likely be needed.
mvfr ceilings are possible for a few hours wednesday morning
behind the rain. it is unclear if this system will push through
or if rain will linger long into the morning. the boundary is
expected to lift north on wednesday afternoon and serve as the
focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.

southwest winds will remain breezy for much of the period. a low
level jet does increase to 40 knots near 2k feet overnight but
expecting enough surface winds to not include in the tafs at
this time.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected in
showers and thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie remain between 10-20 knots out of the
south to southwest today. as with previous days, the resultant
waves of 3-5 feet will be higher in the open waters and towards
canada. generally, winds will remain out of the southwest at
10-15 knots across the lake through friday. high pressure will
build into the region on friday and winds will become light at
around 5 knots and variable. by saturday, winds will increase
again out of the south to 15-20 knots as a warm front moves
north across the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch through thursday morning for ohz003-006>009-018-
019.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
807 pm edt tue apr 14 2026

.key messages...

- while confidence is high for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms into wednesday, it remains lower regarding
timing, placement and impacts in any given area. all modes of
severe weather are possible, with heightened concerns either
side of the mi/in state line.

- additional chances for showers and storms exist wednesday
night into saturday, but each days risk will key in on the
previous days outcomes.

- increasing concerns for at least some hydro issues with
swaths of locally heavy rain expected on already saturated
grounds and high river and lake levels. a flood watch has been
issued for portions of the area where the greatest confidence
exists at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt tue apr 14 2026

a very challenging forecast is in store over the next couple of days
as the active pattern continues. the focus for this package will
reside on the next 24 to 36 hours with minimal changes or discussion
on later periods.while cams vary considerably on evolution of
convection through tonight there is 2 general areas to keep an eye
on for both a severe threat and possibly a heavy rain threat.

skies have generally cleared out behind the morning area of showers
and storms, allowing for destabilization across the area (spc meso
indicating sbcape of 1500-2500 j/kg with higher levels to the west).
18z soundings from kilx and kdvn show a powder keg waiting with a
strong cap/eml to be overcome.

our first area of concern will be storms that fire most likely in
central il, but could also start along/south of us-24 along a
remnant outflow from this mornings convection. plenty of shear and
steep lapse rates will result in rapid intensification of the storms
which then move generally east with time. large hail would be the
main threat, but strong winds and possibly some tornado concerns are
in play as well. the window for this looks to be from 20z to maybe
2z. swomcd #422 goes into greater detail on concerns. have went with
chc pops for now in the south until we see how the convection sets
up. heavy rain would also be a concern with plenty of moisture in
place.

focus then shifts to expected rapid storm development somewhere in
the ne ia/nw il area in the near future. specifics can be found in
swomcd #419 highlighting an eventual tornado watch as far east as
the chicago area. it is this activity that will become our concern
late this evening into the overnight hours with cams all over the
place on the handling of it. sufficient signals do exist for the
northern third to half of the area most likely in the crosshairs of
1 or 2 batches of storms and an increased threat for severe weather
and heavy rainfall. spc upgraded locations n of us-6 earlier today
to enhanced with all modes possible (trending towards damaging winds
with time). the copious amount of rainfall expected could cause a
greater overall flood concern than the south given a longer
potential duration. a flood watch was issued earlier for the
northern half of the area where confidence in cover and intensity is
greater. that does not mean southern areas are not at risk for
flooding concerns. wpc excessive rainfall outlook placed the entire
area in a slight risk to highlight the concerns.

limited changes have been made into wednesday and wednesday night as
final evolution and impacts of overnight convection may dictate later
chances. spc has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms, with
the focus likely being the afternoon or evening hours. hydro
concerns could also be there (hence the watch in effect through 8 pm
wed.

a trough moves through with renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms. the severe threat doesn`t appear to be as high at
this point (marginal risk for the time being), but something to
watch. the trough will quickly exit with an increasing sw flow
behind it again as a much deeper trough moved across the plains are
into the area this weekend. additional severe storms appear possible
saturday with dy6 outlook placing a 15% prob for severe over the
area. behind the front, a shot of colder air and gusty winds arrives
for sunday and monday as highs drop into the 50s (some 40s?) before
moderation starts.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 753 pm edt tue apr 14 2026

the active weather pattern will continue with times of showers
and scattered thunderstorms through the period. anomalously mild
and very moist conditions for mid april will continue as diurnal
heating and weak disturbances continue to generate storms
upstream. mvfr to occasional ifr conditions are expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through wednesday evening for inz005>009-012-014-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch through wednesday evening for ohz001-002-004-005.
mi...flood watch through wednesday evening for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
805 pm edt tue apr 14 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- potential exists for thunderstorms to develop tonight, mainly
between 8 pm and 3 am. storms may become severe, capable of
producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

- there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms wednesday and
still another round of storms possible thursday.

- each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall. a flood watch is in effect for all areas tonight through
thursday night.

&&

.aviation...

sct to bkn clouds at 5kft or above start the taf period with a s to
sw wind at around 5 to 10 knots. thunderstorms are underway to the
west of lake michigan with come activity just starting to move over
the south central portion of the lake. thunderstorm activity is
expected to develop into a linear system and push into michigan
tonight, mainly in the 03z to 08z window. mbs and fnt would be the
first to see activity in that window given the expected southwest to
northeast orientation. confidence remains fairly high for a line of
storms with relatively high coverage to maintain tsra tempo groups
tonight. slight timing adjustments may still be needed as the line
approaches or if anything develops ahead of the line. there looks to
be a window by around mid to late morning for a period of dry
weather develops. shower and thunderstorm looks to redevelop to some
degree tomorrow.

dtw/d21 convection... fairly high likelihood for a line of
thunderstorms to move across much of southeast michigan affecting dtw
between 04z and 09z tonight. some uncertainty in intensity exists,
but damaging wind gusts will be the biggest threat.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight. medium wednesday morning.

* medium to high for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z.


&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 312 pm edt tue apr 14 2026

discussion...

evening/early tonight severe storm potential- enhanced risk south of
i-69, slight risk north of i-69:

remnant mcv over northern indiana that generated a few light showers
near the state border is pushing east of the region this afternoon
and most importantly, its associated cloud shield is likewise
peeling away. increasing insolation supports destabilization through
the late afternoon-early evening period with cams advertising a
southwesterly gradient from grand rapids to detroit where 1000-2000
j/kg of sbcape to develops along/south. additionally stalled frontal
boundary is lingering near the northern portions of the saginaw
valley this evening. these two features are the first to watch
before the arrival of then ongoing upstream convection from wi/ia
late evening. for the southern cape gradient, the fairly weak cap
looks to effectively erode between 00-02z supporting isolated to
perhaps scattered convective initiation over areas south of m-59.
for the stalled tri-cities frontal boundary, its associated
initiation depends on enough instability lifting that north which
favors a window more 01-03z. discrete storms that do manage to fire
in either region occur early enough to be fully surface based and be
working with at least 1000 j/kg of sbcape (likely more for the
southern storms) and very steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5-
8c/km. additionally wind profiles/hodographs show healthy curvature
in the lowest 1-2kft leading to between 100-200 m2/s2 of srh and 0-
1km bulk shear values nearing 25kts. all together, near-sunset
environment is favorable for surface-based storms with all hazards
in play, though exactly how much initiation actually occurs is
unclear. while the above is (potentially) occuring, upstream
convection undergoes upscale growth while crossing from wi into west
mi feed by a 45-55kt southwesterly llj congealing into a line of
storms (wind feed isn`t particularly strong true mcs development).
line motion is favored to trend southerly given the cape gradient
and southwesterly inflow. worth noting there is a subset of cams
like the 06z hrdps and 12z arw that favor more robust development
along the southerly flank resulting in the main line push dropping
southeast over northern il/in instead of se mi. that said, current
forecast remains with the main line dropping nw-se across the local
area late evening-early tonight, 03-07z. overnight arrival lends
concern for the ability for the line to maintain itself both in
strength and a surface layer root due to decreasing available
nocturnal instability and only modest inflow winds. should anything
maintain a surface connection, damaging wind gusts and an isolated
qlcs tornado would be the main hazards as low level winds maintain
favorable curvature in advance of the line.

wednesday- marginal risk of severe:

exactly how wednesday morning plays out depends on the behavior of
this evening`s convection and where the line eventually peters out-
either over far southern se mi or over oh. the line pushing fully
into oh keeps the first half of the morning drier. regardless, the
local area remains entrenched in this mild/moist airmass with
continuing deep layer southwesterly flow. no strong forcing
mechanism to speak of wednesday with embedded pv anomalies instead
lifting into the state and spurring clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. airmass is conducive for instability to rebound back
near 1000 j/kg by afternoon with bulk shear remaining near 30-40kts
offering a shot an isolated storm borderline severe storm. damaging
wind gusts are main hazard, hail threat is hampered by anemic mid-
level lapse rates near or below 6c/km.

thursday- marginal risk south of m-59:

central plains mid-level trough eventually lifts into the central
great lakes providing stronger synoptic support for increasing
shower coverage late wednesday night-thursday morning. wave provides
stronger wind profiles pushing shear values towards 40-45kts.
inhibiting factor for storms is overnight arrival of the wave with
showers ongoing through the day reducing diurnal destabilization
potential. peak cape generally favored to hold in the 500-1000 j/kg
range and focused towards the state border where `best` chances for
an isolated strong storm will reside. shortwave eventually kicks
east thursday night tapering off lingering showers.

flooding concerns- flood watch for all se mi till thursday night:

spring thus far has already been quite wet for much of the area with
all 3 climate sites sitting above normal since march 1st: saginaw
+4.30", flint +3.78", detroit +0.88". in the past 10 days, all but
the southern portions of lenawee/monroe have seen between 1.5-4.5",
highest values north of m-59 where areal/river flooding occurred
last week. humid airmass maintains pwat values around 1.3" tonight
through the day wednesday before nudging higher towards 1.5-1.6"
wednesday night-thursday. with multiple additional rounds of showers
and storms this evening through thursday evening, qpf forecasts
within that timeframe are between 1-3" though higher amounts around
4" are possible depending on thunderstorm coverage and tracks. given
the antecedent conditions with this forecast, a flood watch has been
issued for all of se mi through thursday evening.

late week:

mid-level ridging works across the central great lakes daytime
friday finally provides a reprieve from rainy weather. this however
is shortlived as a broad mid-upper trough digs out of the northern
rockies into the upper midwest/northern great lakes. attendant
surface low sends a respectable cold front through the local area
saturday-saturday night. additional showers and thunderstorms are
likely in advance with afternoon arrival currently favored. region
is outlooked in a day 5 15% risk due to the strong wind profile and
modest diurnal destabilization potential. much cooler air follows as
850mb temps fall from +14c saturday to -8c by sunday morning and
eventually -10 sunday night as the core of thermal troughing
crosses. this results in overnight lows sunday night below freezing
in the upper 20s to around 30f. given the warm stretch this week,
growing season is likely to have started for most of the area which
would warrant frost/freeze headlines.

marine...

surface warm front has lifted back toward saginaw bay, with
southwest flow to the south of the front and east flow for points
north. patchy fog persists over portions of lake huron north of the
front, but overall dry weather is in place. the next round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over northern il/wi late this
afternoon and track east-southeast into the local waterways
overnight as a line. strong to severe storms are expected mainly
after 04z (midnight local time), with potential for damaging wind
gusts over 50 knots, large hail over 1 inch, and isolated
waterspouts. this line of storms exits east around sunrise
wednesday, but unsettled conditions are expected to continue into
the weekend. each round of thunderstorm activity brings potential
for localized erratic waves and gusty winds. widespread headlines
are not expected.

hydrology...

multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms start this evening and
continue off-on through thursday evening. each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused
areas of thunderstorms develop, which offers flooding concerns given
the already wet spring and saturated soils. forecast rainfall totals
from tonight to thursday night range 1-3" across se mi with
potential for 4" dependent on coverage/track of thunderstorms each
episode. a flood watch is in effect for the entirety of the region
into late thursday night as a result. widespread flooding chances
are tied if areas see repeated thunderstorms and carry low
confidence in occurrence, however flooding of low-lying, poor
drainage, and urban areas are likely as is creek and river flooding.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch through late thursday night for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......mv
hydrology....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.