Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
725 pm est tue dec 9 2025

.synopsis...
a warm front lifts through the area early wednesday ahead of strong
low pressure tracking through the central great lakes. a strong cold
front crosses late wednesday behind this low pressure. weak low
pressure tracks through the ohio valley friday, with a cold front
crossing the area on saturday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
-accumulating wet snow across the higher terrain of northeast oh and
northwest pa late tonight into early wednesday, with road impacts to
the wednesday morning commute in the higher elevations. the rest of
the area will see a cold rain or rain/snow mix.
-southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph late tonight and wednesday.
-strong cold front late wednesday afternoon and evening brings snow
showers to much of the area and falling temperatures. snow will be
enhanced along the front by lake erie, with lake effect snow showers
developing behind the front across northeast oh and northwest pa.

lingering flurries and snow showers across far northeast oh and
northwest pa this afternoon will continue to exit. a few flurries or
a bit of freezing drizzle may linger into the evening in the higher
terrain of northwest pa, but should not be impactful. this will leave
a brief period of quiet weather across the area.

a strong clipper (sub 990mb) will swing through the southern great
lakes on wednesday. this will lift a warm front across the local area
early wednesday. an initial cold front will cross late wednesday
morning and early afternoon, with a trailing cold front late
wednesday afternoon/evening that will usher much colder air back in.
the general progression remains an initial thump of cold rain and wet
snow late tonight into early wednesday, a dry slot with more showery
and intermittent precipitation (mainly rain) for several hours during
the day wednesday, followed by snow showers (enhanced by the lake)
along the strong cold front late wednesday afternoon and evening. lake
effect then takes over wednesday night as the clipper exits.

precipitation will quickly spread in from the west-northwest very late
this evening through the overnight. surface temperatures will reach
their lows early tonight, in the upper 20s/lower 30s east of the i-71
corridor (low to mid 30s along the immediate lakeshore) and mid 30s to
the west. temperatures will then hold steady or just slowly rise
tonight (a brief period of wet-bulb/dynamic cooling as steadier precip
spreads in may briefly interrupt the warming) into early wednesday.
temperatures aloft have trended slightly cooler across northwest pa
per model forecast soundings, though a warm nose may still initially
exist farther west across ohio. overall, expect precipitation to
arrive as mainly or all snow in pa and a rain/snow mix in ohio. there
could be brief pockets of freezing rain in northeast oh where surface
temperatures will be coldest, but this should be spotty and not last
long. precipitation should change to mainly snow as far west as
roughly the i-71 corridor for a time early wednesday morning when
rates are heaviest, with mainly rain or just some brief mix with snow
to the west of that. still am concerned that a period of strong lift,
with this lift intersecting the dendritic growth zone (dgz), will
lead to a brief (3-6 hour) window of moderate to heavy snow between
3-11 am from west to east across northeast oh/northwest pa, especially
in the higher elevations. as a dry slot spreads in wednesday morning
and low-level warm advection continues we should see snow become
lighter and more intermittent and change to mainly rain.

the snowfall forecast through wednesday morning has not changed much,
aside from a modest increase in the higher terrain of the snowbelt.
3-5" is expected across the higher terrain of northwest pa with 1-3"
across northeast oh east of i-77, with lighter amounts near the lake.
some light (<1" of slushy snow) accumulations are in the forecast as
far west as the higher terrain near mansfield. there is just not
enough snow in the forecast to expand the winter weather advisory into
ohio, though the peak snow rates will be coinciding with the wednesday
morning commute and the ground is cold, meaning the near or slightly
above freezing surface temperatures may not matter much. essentially,
those in the higher terrain of northeast oh and northwest pa should
plan on a snowy and slick commute wednesday morning, with the greatest
amounts and impacts in the advisory. surrounding areas (such as
cleveland/akron/youngstown) may at least see a brief period of slushy
travel during the commute given the timing of the burst of west snow,
even if snow amounts in these cities are around or under an inch.

we get into a dry slot wednesday morning and early afternoon behind
the initial slug of precip, though it won`t be an especially clean dry
slot. scattered showers (mainly rain) will continue off and on,
particularly along a cold front that will cross late morning into the
afternoon from west to east. a broken band of weak convective showers
(that may bring enhanced wind gusts and brief small hail or graupel)
is still likely along that front. highs will reach the upper 30s and
low 40s around midday wednesday before starting to slowly fall through
the afternoon behind the initial cold front. wind gusts will still
ramp up out of the south-southwest beneath a strong low-level jet late
tonight into early wednesday and remain gusty through the day while
gradually shifting more westerly. gusts of 35 to 45 mph are generally
expected to handle it, with the strongest flow aloft occurring early
wednesday in a warm advection regime with ongoing precipitation (none
of which is favorable for efficiently mixing down stronger winds).
so, while forecast gusts do approach wind advisory criteria and one or
two such gusts can`t be ruled out, continued to hold off on issuing a
wind advisory with this update. wind gusts will remain elevated into
early wednesday evening before gradually diminishing.

a stronger cold front, associated with a sharp low-mid level trough
axis behind the departing clipper, will cross late wednesday afternoon
and evening. scattered to numerous snow showers are still likely
area-wide with this feature, with a more coherent burst of lake
enhanced snow southeast of lake erie across northeast oh and northwest
pa. most of the area will see minimal (under 1") accumulation with
this front, with a quick inch or two in the snowbelt with it. not much
snow, but temperatures will quickly drop below freezing wednesday
evening which along with even a light amount of snow could contribute
to slick or icy conditions across a good chunk of the area. outside of
developing lake effect off of lake erie into the snowbelt and a few
flurries pushing off of lake michigan into our western counties
overnight, dry conditions are expected to take hold wednesday night.
lows will generally reach the low to mid 20s, with a few 10s west.

lake effect snow will start developing quickly later wednesday evening
and night as some lingering low-level synoptic moisture combines with
quickly cooling temperatures aloft. forecast soundings depict marginal
instability and fairly dry low-levels back towards cleveland, which
along with a more northwest flow (short fetch) will limit the
intensity of activity for most of the snowbelt...particularly in ohio.
however, soundings are a bit more favorable towards erie which could
allow for a more intense band of snow with connection to lake huron to
develop overnight across northwest pa. while it won`t be the most snow
ever for these areas, a few inches may occur overnight if an
organized band connected to lake huron can develop. with lake
accumulating lake effect then continuing in the forecast through
thursday night, extended the end time of the advisories until 4 am
friday to cover the lake effect.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
-lake effect snow continues across far northeast oh and northwest pa
thursday into thursday night.
-a clipper tracking through the ohio valley may spread light snow into
southwestern portions of the area late thursday night into friday.

the main story for thursday and much of thursday night will be cold
but mainly dry conditions across the area outside of continuing lake
effect snow across the primary snowbelt. it will still be mostly
cloudy across the area, with some (non-accumulating) flurries also a
possibility into thursday across northwest oh off of lake michigan.
highs are expected to range from the mid 20s to near 30 on thursday,
with lows thursday night ranging from the mid 10s to mid 20s.

into the primary snowbelt the focus will remain continuing lake effect
snow through a good portion of thursday night, with enough ridging
expected to build in by early friday to put a significant lid on any
remaining activity. a moderate to heavy band of snow with connection
to lake huron may still be impacting eastern erie county pa early
thursday, but then likely shifts into western ny. am expecting fairly
disorganized and light activity outside of this lake huron connection
initially, though as winds gradually back more westerly (increasing
fetch) and bring moisture from lake michigan into play there should be
some uptick in organization and intensity thursday afternoon and
evening, particularly across the higher terrain of inland erie county
and northern crawford county. lowering inversion heights and a drier
airmass are shown by all guidance overnight thursday night into early
friday as high pressure builds in, meaning the main window for lake
effect in this forecast period will likely be thursday afternoon
through the first half of thursday night. overall this is not the most
impressive lake effect setup, though favorable snow ratios may help
contribute to another few inches of fluffy snow across parts of inland
northwest pa where organized banding is able to develop thursday into
thursday night. there will be some activity into ohio as far west as
the cleveland area as well though it will be on the lighter side, with
perhaps locally up to a couple inches of additional snow thursday and
thursday night where bands are able to develop east of cleveland.

it will be mostly cloudy on friday as a clipper drives through the
ohio valley. this clipper will be weakening and just graze our area,
but may bring some light snow to our southwestern counties in the
vicinity of friday morning. otherwise, continued backing flow should
gradually push any lingering lake effect in extreme northeast oh and
northwest pa out into lake erie through the day friday. highs on
friday are expected to reach the upper 20s and lower 30s.

forecast uncertainty increases friday night. it will probably be a
mainly dry night between systems. however, disagreement on whether the
next cold front (with a chance of snow showers and lake effect behind
it) will cross very late friday night or on saturday is enough that
blended model guidance (which is largely the basis of our forecast)
brought increased pops for snow late friday night, especially across
the primary snowbelt. lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s are forecast.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
-high confidence in very cold weather this weekend, with highs
struggling to exceed 20 and lows in the single digits and 10s. wind
chills may dip below 0 degrees at times.
-a strong cold front and passing clipper system may bring light snow
accumulations area-wide saturday or saturday evening, with lake
effect into the snowbelt saturday night and sunday.

a cold front is expected to cross late friday night or saturday
morning, bringing with it a chance for snow showers area-wide with
greater potential for snow across far northeast oh and northwest pa
due to contribution from lake erie. models are in agreement that
another shortwave/clipper, with a tap to truly arctic air behind it,
will cross late saturday into saturday night. however, there is some
disagreement regarding where a swath of fluffy accumulating snow will
track with that feature. either way, there`s increasing confidence in
west-northwest flow lake effect snow organizing/intensifying saturday
night and sunday as the deepest cold air moves through the region.
lake effect looks to continue into at least sunday night, though
should diminish or potentially even shut off on monday as high
pressure slides through the region. quieter weather is then expected
for early next week on the backside of the high pressure.

the highest-confidence and most widespread impact will be cold
temperatures saturday through early monday. daytime highs may still
reach the mid-upper 20s on saturday but will struggle to exceed 20 on
sunday. overnight lows in the single digits and 10s are expected
saturday and sunday nights with wind chills likely dipping below 0
across at least portions of the area. temperatures should start to
gradually moderate on monday and tuesday, though are currently not
forecast to get above freezing through the end of the 7-day forecast.

what remains less confident is snow potential. guidance is trying to
key in on a swath of fluffy accumulating snow impacting a good portion
of our forecast area saturday afternoon and evening, though enough
variability exists among ensemble members still to keep confidence in
this affecting the area more in the "medium" range. we are not talking
a big snow, but a typical 1-3/2-4" fluffy clipper snow appears in
play wherever the swath of snow ends up tracking. some lake effect may
be ongoing on saturday, though is most favored late saturday through
sunday night. variation remains on guidance regarding the exact wind
direction, depth of cold air, and amount of moisture to work with.
however, we seem to be trending towards a decent period of west-
northwest flow saturday night through sunday night with most guidance
showing 850mb temperatures dipping to -16 to -20c on sunday. this
suggests potential for an impactful accumulation of fluffy lake
effect favoring inland portions of the snowbelt. however, still need
to allow details to become clearer before speculating more than that.
those in the snowbelt region of northeast oh and northwest pa should
continue to monitor the forecast for the second half of this weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
active weather and poor aviation conditions are expected
through the taf period. ceilings are improving to vfr at most
terminals this evening. a strong clipper system over the upper
midwest will cross lower michigan on wednesday, lifting a warm
front north across the area overnight. precipitation will arrive
from west to east overnight as this system approaches with
varying types of precipitation. precipitation looks likely to
start as snow at tol after 03z with a rain/snow mix at mfd/cle
and beginning as snow at cak/yng/eri. fdy is likely to begin as
rain. as the warm front lifts north, more sites will transition
to rain overnight with a rain/snow mix persisting through the
day at yng/eri. ifr ceilings and low visibilities are expected
behind the warm front during the day on wednesday and can not
rule out patchy fog with visibilities below one mile at times.

a cold front will arrive from northwest to southeast as the
clipper continues east into quebec during the afternoon. the
cold front will cause a transition back to a rain/snow mix,
except perhaps all snow at terminals in the northeast late in
the period.

winds will be a concern through the taf period. winds will
increase overnight as the gradient tightens and as a 50+ knot
low level jet passes overhead. most terminals will see wind
gusts of 25-35 knots by 12z. if these do not materialize, may
need to add in low level wind sheer to the forecast with speeds
of 40-50 knots for a few hours. winds will peak behind the cold
front as mixing heights increase, bringing some stronger gusts
of 30-40 knots down to the surface during the afternoon,
especially along and west of i-71.

outlook...non-vfr is expected to continue for portions of the
area wednesday night in snow showers. periods of snow showers
will continue in the snowbelt with a widespread snow possible
with another cold front saturday evening.

&&

.marine...
a series of systems will cross lake erie over the next several days,
resulting in a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions.

southwest winds to 20 to 30 knots are expected this afternoon
through tonight with winds increasing further by early wednesday
morning as a strong cold front approaches from the west. marginal
gales are likely primarily east of the islands wednesday morning
through early wednesday evening with the highest winds anticipated
in the open waters of the central basin. gale warnings remain in
effect for the open and nearshore waters from reno beach east from
09z/4 am to 00z/7 pm wednesday with a small craft advisory in effect
from maumee bay to reno beach through wednesday night.

confidence in the potential for low water in the western basin has
decreased. favorable conditions for low water scenarios typically
involve more west-southwest to west winds (starting at 240 to 250
degrees) and the window for favorable winds will only be for a brief
period wednesday morning. the critical mark for safe navigation at
toledo is currently 8 inches below low water datum and latest leofs
guidance places the minimum water level near that level wednesday
morning, which suggests a relatively low confidence forecast. will
need to keep an eye on guidance and observations though; a low water
advisory may need to be issued at some point late tonight or early
wednesday morning, especially if the wind takes on a more westerly
component longer than currently anticipated.

winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front late
wednesday afternoon into wednesday evening and small craft
advisories will be needed after the gale warning ends and as winds
remain in the 20 to 30 knot range through much of thursday. winds
will gradually diminish thursday night into friday morning and
headlines will likely end as south/southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots
develop during the day friday. headlines will likely return to the
lake as an arctic front moves across the lake late friday into
saturday with stronger winds persisting into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 1 am wednesday to 4 am est friday
for paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez142.
small craft advisory until 4 am est wednesday for lez143>149.
gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est wednesday for lez143>149-
163>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...10
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 pm est tue dec 9 2025

.key messages...

- gusty southwest winds late this evening, becoming northwest behind
a cold front on wednesday (gusts 35-40+).

- periods of rain and snow late this evening into wednesday. wet snow
accumulations (near 1") possible tonight north of us 30. snow
accumulations near 1" near lake mi wednesday afternoon-
evening. minor travel impacts possible.

- the pattern remains active late this week into the upcoming
weekend with cold temperatures and periodic snow chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 242 pm est tue dec 9 2025

a strong hybrid clipper system with a ~990 mb low pressure system
takes an east-southeast track through southern wi and southern lower
mi tonight into wednesday morning bringing gusty winds and
precipitation. the initial precipitation develops on the leading
edge of a 50-60 kt llj later this evening into early wednesday
morning, especially along and north of the us 30 corridor.
model vertical thermal profiles suggest liquid/rain as the primary
ptype for most. the exception appears to be far northeast in, south-
central mi and far northwest oh where a brief period of accumulating
wet snow appears likely sometime in the 04-08z timeframe, best
chances around hillsdale/angola/coldwater where a sloppy inch or
two of snow cannot be ruled out. lower probability and concern
for a brief period of freezing rain at onset elsewhere this
evening as ground temperatures likely warm just above freezing.
however, the recent cold stretch and snow cover could delay
expected warming just enough for a quick glaze of ice mid
evening into the early overnight (low confidence). lastly, sfc
wind gusts within the ramping llj should generally be limited to
30-35 mph in this waa regime.

mid level dry slot briefly makes inroads later tonight through mid
morning wednesday with a trend toward a more showery/drizzle
setup with temps in the mid-upper 30s. the system cold front and
wrap around moisture then races southeast through the local
area mid morning through mid afternoon on wednesday. gusty winds
and snow showers, potentially squally in nature, will accompany
this feature. there could be a 1-3 hour window where a few
gusts push near wind advisory criteria with the frontal passage.
a transition to lake effect snow showers/squalls in the caa
regime likely does bring some light snow accumulations and
minor travel disruptions (vis restrictions) wednesday afternoon-
evening with an inch or two possible in northwest in and
southwest mi.

the parade of clipper systems in energetic northwest flow will
persist through the second half of the week into the upcoming
weekend with periodic snow chances. these appear to be your more
typical clipper systems that produce a rather narrow band of
accumulating snows along a tight baroclinic zone. the first of these
disturbances looks to zip through thursday night into friday
morning. latest model guidance does continue to suggest mid-level
fgen snow clipping areas mainly southwest of us 30, though subtle
adjustments north or south remain possible. another one then
follows in around saturday-saturday night per ensembles with
additional snow accums in or near our forecast area. sub-zero
wind chills and les the possible into sunday behind this 2nd
wave. this pattern does finally look to break just beyond this
forecast period.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 633 pm est tue dec 9 2025

a low pressure system passes through the great lakes, but north of
our area tonight into wednesday morning. this spreads rain and, at
times, snow across the area. this is also expected to reduce flight
conditions into ifr and visby into mvfr. could see brief periods of
ifr visby as well as the snow works its way back into the area with
cold air arriving changing the ptype back over, but there`s not
enough confidence with this issuance to include that lower visby.
will also include some llws as the 55 to 60 kt llj moves through the
area overnight. expect southwest winds to eventually veer
northwesterly as warm sector transitions to post-cold frontal. some
25 to 35 kt will not be out of the question wednesday am to midday
with the strongest gusts located along the front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est wednesday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
649 pm est tue dec 9 2025

.key messages...

- a winter weather advisory is now in effect tonight through wednesday
afternoon north of m-46. snowfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are
expected.

- areas south of m-59 will see a changeover to rain wednesday
morning that keeps snowfall totals in the 1 to 4 inch range.

- snow tapers off wednesday afternoon with temperatures dropping
into the teens thursday morning.

- active pattern continues late this week-weekend with potential for
additional round of light accumulating snow and sub-zero morning
wind chills.

&&

.aviation...

widespread mvfr ceilings with pockets of ifr exist ahead of a winter
system arriving later this evening. snow is expected to pick up
around 03z or shortly after with a potential for heavy snow in the
05z to 09z resulting in widespread ifr to lifr conditions. p-type
starts as snow for all terminals with an expectation across ptk and
the southern detroit terminals for a transition to wet snow/rain mix
around 09z. ifr to lifr conditions hold through tomorrow morning and
possibly into early afternoon. a cold front will pass through
tomorrow bringing increasing southwest wind late tonight and then a
post frontal gusty northwest wind by early afternoon. northwest gusts
may reach 30 knots at times. the front will also bring a changeover
back to snow showers by around 13z with any light snow showers or
flurries tapering off through tomorrow afternoon.

for dtw...higher snowfall rates with lifr conditions remain favored
between 04z and 09z tonight before transition to wet snow/rain mix
by around 09z. transition still carries some uncertainty if colder
temperatures prevail. snow showers then become favored after 13z
with decreasing precipitation trend through the late morning and
afternoon. a wind shift to nw is currently expected between 17 and
19z wednesday with gusts up to 30 knots at times.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through the forecast period.

* high for precipitation type as snow this evening and overnight.
medium for a transition to rain or rain/snow early tomorrow
morning, then high for a transition back to snow after 12z
tomorrow morning.

* low for ceiling/visibility at or below 200 ft / 1/2 mile overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 411 pm est tue dec 9 2025

discussion...

aside from some lingering snow showers/freezing drizzle across the
north, main forecast update this afternoon was the southward
expansion of the winter weather advisory down to the i-69 corridor.
the 12z model suite showed a notable southward shift in the surface
low track, especially in the hi-res data, with the low pressure
center shifting as far as 200 miles south compared to previous
cycles. this draws the freezing line down toward the i-69/m-59
corridors, allowing a longer duration of snow with lower chances of
rain mixing in across the saginaw valley/thumb region. details
discussed below:

1. areas along/north of the m-46 corridor: a winter weather advisory
remains in effect, with snowfall forecasts trending up. with the
track of the surface low now projected to be along/just south of
this corridor, it is positioned favorably in the northern quadrants
of the low to see all snow for a longer duration. further, there is
banding potential given the strong convergence signature along the
warm front and steep mid-level lapse rates (3-6km agl lapse rates
over 7 c/km) that would act to constrict and strengthen the frontal
circulation. peak snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible,
primarily between midnight to 6am, with snowfall totals of 3 to 6
inches likely. if banding does develop, we will come close to the
6"/9 hr warning threshold (e.g. 12z.hrrr solution). a short-fused
upgrade to a warning may be needed as observations warrant,
especially given that these areas have fallen short of forecast
highs this afternoon (still in the upper 20s vs low 30s forecast).

2. i-69/m-59 corridor: the winter weather advisory has been expanded
to include counties along the i-69 corridor (including cities of owosso,
flint, lapeer, port huron). southern shift of the freezing line
supports a longer duration snow with wet bulb zero heights holding
aob 2 kft for the majority of the precipitation event. a brief
transition to rain is possible, timed around the morning commute,
before changing back to snow mid-day as the system moves into ontario
and its cold front settles through the cwa. rates in excess of a
half inch per hour will be plausible, with a high liquid content to
the snow (wet snow) as temperatures are near the freezing mark (31-
33 degrees likely). the slight elevation difference of the irish
hills may warrant additional southward expansion to the advisory into
oakland county, where projected snowfall totals are in the 2-4 inch
range.

3. south of m-59 to the ohio border: no headlines are in effect as
there is still confidence in a transition from snow to rain early
wednesday morning. this cuts down on snowfall totals toward 1-2",
and will help limit impacts as the changeover is anticipated prior
to the morning commute. the period of snow p-type still could
see rates of a half inch per hour to result in quick accumulations,
although with a melting/compaction component given the warm temps. a
lull in precip is expected in the warm sector wednesday morning as
temperatures climb into the mid-30s before falling in the afternoon
as the low drags its cold front through lower michigan. this will
support a changeover back to snow as the system`s cold front settles
through lower michigan, with an additional dusting of snow possible
wed afternoon.

synoptic precipitation tapers off wednesday afternoon as the low
pushes further into ontario, leaving northwest flow in its wake that
becomes breezy (30-35 mph gusts). robust mid-level dry slot strips
most of the moisture from the dgz to prevent lake effect activity
from surviving this far away from the lakes wed evening. the one
exception will be near the lake huron shoreline where lake effect
snow showers may linger through the evening. temperatures fall below
freezing by early evening and continue to plummet into the teens by
thursday morning as the thermal trough clips across ontario. any
residual water (storm total liquid of 0.4-0.6 for reference) will
freeze given these temperatures. wind chills in the single digits are
expected thursday morning.

quieter conditions are in store thursday as high pressure builds
briefly into the ohio valley, but the broad longwave troughing
pattern remains a favorable storm track for additional clipper
systems and arctic air late week-this weekend. additional snowfall
accumulations and sub-zero wind chills are the main concern.

marine...

strong southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots this afternoon over the
central great lakes. isolated/stray gusts of 32-35 knots
even reported by a couple ships over lake huron. a surface trough
tracking through will allow for winds to diminish and veer to the
southwest-west this evening, as milder air also streams in.

a larger and stronger low pressure system remains on track to move
through lower michigan tonight into wednesday, producing
widespread snow and even rain over lake st. clair and lake erie. the
southwest low level jet ahead of the low looks to be very strong
(40+ at 925 mb/50+ knots at 850 mb) toward the southern michigan
border. still a very difficult call on the near lake surface
stability over over the nearshore waters of western lake erie, as
peak south-southwest winds look to be around 12z wednesday. with the
water temp near freezing over the nearshore waters and surface dew
pts rising into the low to mid 30s, anticipate just enough limited
mixing to keep gusts to gales less than 3 hours, as winds also look
to be more southwest/offshore. as usual with offshore flow nearing
gales, there will be heighten concern for low water conditions
across the western basin of lake erie.

rush of cold air behind the passage of the low in the afternoon
will then support strong northerly winds wednesday afternoon and
early wednesday evening. there is now another model support to
expected frequent gusts to marginal gales over most of southern lake
huron, and will go ahead with a gale warning. 850 mb temps lowering
to -16 c over northern lake huron will promote deep mixing and lake
induced troughing, which should keep gusts to gales going over the
open waters of lake huron, at least through midnight, before winds
gradually diminish through the rest of the night into thursday
morning. however, a 500 mb low tracking south along the
ontario/quebec border will re-enforce the cold air, and should
maintain sufficient mixing/gradient over lake huron to support gusts
in the 25 to 30 knot range out of the northwest during thursday.
surface ridge building in for thursday evening/night will lead to
much lighter winds, which should linger into friday as a wave of low
pressure track through the ohio valley. none-the-less, an
arctic front is on track to move through friday night, with
sporadic gusts to gales possible over lake huron during the weekend
as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 c, supporting snow squalls and
freezing spray as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
wednesday for miz047>049-053>055-060>063.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lhz422-443.

gale warning from 11 am wednesday to 3 am est thursday for lhz363-
462>464.

gale warning from 11 am to 11 pm est wednesday for lhz421-441-442.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.