Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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799
fxus61 kcle 180640
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
240 am edt sat apr 18 2026

.what has changed...
the conditional severe weather threat remains on track for
today, depending on how our area recovers from incoming rain and
clouds this morning. there is very high confidence in the need
for frost/freeze headlines on sunday and monday nights.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers with some thunderstorms with severe potential are
expected this afternoon, mainly between noon and 6 pm. damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two are all possible
with storms. the greatest potential for severe storms is in
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

2) a cold air mass enters for sunday and monday, bringing below
normal temperatures to the area. residual rain will be in place
on sunday with some changeover to snow on sunday night. the
colder air will allow for frost/freeze potential on sunday and
monday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
early this morning, a qlcs line of storms is moving across
indiana, weakening as it pushes east into a more stable
atmosphere. storms are beginning to transition to an elevated
status as a strong outflow boundary is developing and pushing
ahead of the main convective cores. the remnants of this line of
thunderstorms will enter northwest ohio later this morning and
continue eastward, modifying the air mass ahead of the cold
front today.

the main show for today will begin closer to the noon hour as a
new round of showers with some thunderstorms will develop with
energy moving aloft ahead of the main cold front. this boundary
will be the feature where showers and storms focus on
redeveloping in north central ohio. the wind field ahead of the
front will be favorable for severe weather with 40-50 kts of
southerly 925 mb flow and 60-70 kts of westerly 500 mb flow
aloft that will sustain storms. however, the question of the day
just comes down to thermodynamics of the atmosphere for the
amount and intensity of thunderstorms. the region dried out
significantly on friday and surface dew points are barely
reaching 50 degrees early this morning. the remnant convection
entering this morning will add some moisture to the region, but
there will be some dependency on the southerly low level jet to
try and advect better moisture into the region. the other
question will then be how much instability will be in place. the
remnant convection this morning will introduce clouds and may
taper afternoon temperatures. therefore, mid-to-upper 70s may
only be achieved in the eastern third of the forecast area,
which is where any activity could pick up later today.

in short, the severe threat for today remains conditional for
the eastern two-thirds of the area with the potential for an
organized severe weather threat or busting to just be some perky
showers and some embedded thunder with the cold front. the area
remains outlooked with a slight risk from spc and all severe
hazards remain possible, although damaging winds will be the
most likely threat. the timing for the strongest storms remains
focused in the noon to 6 pm time frame. rain chances will
persist behind the main convection tonight with the upper trough
moving through the region.

key message 2...
this evening`s cold frontal passage will be a jolting change
after several days of 70 and 80 degree high temperatures. once
clouds and precipitation move out of the region, temperatures
will fall into the 30s across the area tonight. if winds can
settle down a bit, there is even a small chance for the need
for additional frost mention in the forecast and maybe a frost
advisory for western areas.

for sunday, a residual trough over the area will allow for
light, scattered rain showers to continue, mostly focused in the
upslope areas, downwind of lake erie in ne oh and nw pa. on
sunday night, colder air aloft along with some lake enhancement
will allow for rain to persist in ne oh and nw pa with some
changeover to snow becoming more likely and have push more snow
mentions in the forecast. overall, accumulations will be
negligible, given warm surface/pavement temperatures that will
need to be overcome. high temperatures on sunday will be a mix
of upper 40s to mid 50s. low temperatures on sunday night will
be in the upper 20s and lower 30s with widespread frost
expected. the growing season is in effect for the entire
forecast area and frost/freeze headlines will be needed for a
large portion of the forecast area.

dry conditions are expected for monday with incoming high
pressure. high temperatures will be cool in the 40s. lows on
monday night will be in the 20s and 30s with widespread frost
expected again. another round of frost/freeze headlines will be
needed for the area.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
conditions are starting off vfr this late evening but will
become mvfr as a cold front moves into the region saturday
morning. the main concerns for aviation weather over the next 24
hours will be the scattered convection associated with the cold
front moving through the area on saturday and some non-
convective low level wind shear through early saturday morning.
the timing of the potential for scattered convection is
mentioned in the tafs from east to west during this early
morning and again this afternoon. tempo groups are highlighting
the timing of potential impacts of mvfr to lower end mvfr due to
the convection. behind the front, mvfr ceilings and scattered
showers are expected through saturday afternoon and evening.
winds will increase through saturday morning 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots. later saturday morning into the afternoon,
winds will become southwesterly 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to
30 knots. the gusts will relax after 00z saturday evening but
remain westerly around 10 to 12 knots.

outlook...brief/spotty non-vfr possible in scattered rain and
snow showers early sunday morning through the first half of
sunday night. non-vfr possible tuesday night and wednesday in
rain showers.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly winds will increase saturday morning
through the afternoon 15 to 20 knots ahead of a cold front.
behind the cold front saturday night, winds will become westerly
15 to 20 knots. a small craft advisory will likely be needed
saturday night into sunday. winds on sunday will be westerly 15
to 20 knots then oscillate between westerly to northwesterly
while dissipating to 10-15 knots by sunday night as high
pressure builds overhead. by monday, winds will be northwesterly
around 10 knots. a southerly flow of winds 10 to 20 knots will
return late monday night into tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 180556
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
156 am edt sat apr 18 2026

.key messages...

- 2am edt update - severe weather threat decreasing.

- some hydro concerns will exist tonight as locally heavy rain
accompanies the line of storms. overall qpf amounts and
expected duration should limit additional impacts, but some
areas could see localized flooding issues. thereafter, no
additional significant rain chances are expected into next
week.

- much cooler temperatures arrive and persist into early next
week with chances for near or below freezing temps sunday and
monday morning.

- rain chances may return towards the end of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 226 pm edt fri apr 17 2026

primary forecast focus is on the well advertised strong to
severe storm threat this evening into the overnight hours in
association with a strong cold front and plentiful upper level
support. dry conditions are expected through the remainder of
the afternoon and most likely to near or just after 00z. numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop upstream (some already
underway from minnesota to ne missouri) in a strongly favorable
environment for all modes of severe. as these storms races ene,
they should congeal into 1 or more lines and most likely
establish strong cold pools as they move across il and
eventually into portions of indiana. it remains to be seen just
how strong they are as they arrive later this evening, but
concerns have increased some that they make it roughly half way
through the area before weakening somewhat. this is depicted by
some expansion east of the slight and marginal risk areas in the
dy1 outlook. by this point, hail should not be a concern, with
areas of wind damage (60 to 70 mph) as well as some brief
tornadoes will be the main concern. the main severe threat
should wrap up in the 6-8z time frame with lingering stratiform
rain behind the main line. pops have been adjusted for a
somewhat faster trend given the impacts of the cold pool pushing
the line along sooner than previous indications. with regards
to hydro issues, a flood watch was contemplated given the
potential for 0.5" to 1" of rain (locally higher possible), but
with the line being so progressive feel the concerns will be
rather limited and can just be handled by flood advisories or
warnings as needed.

the front will stall out some saturday as another wave moves
along it. the severe threat should remain to our east but some
showers and maybe a storm are still possible in se areas,
especially early. after that, we enter a less active period into
at least the middle of next week with the only concern being the
monitoring of colder temperatures and frost/freeze potential
sunday and monday morning. will sort that out after we get this
system out of here.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 149 am edt sat apr 18 2026

main change to the tafs was to narrow down the timing of
thunder based on the current trends. once the line of storms
moves through, the chance for thunder decreases, so tried to
time this line, and then have a prolonged period of showers
after that. otherwise expect mvfr ceilings with west winds
becoming northwest saturday morning, with ceilings starting to
lift to vfr levels saturday afternoon. one other change was to
add a prob30 for some light rain showers saturday evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...nws

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 180544
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
144 am edt sat apr 18 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through this
morning.

- much colder air will advance into the region saturday into sunday.
there is a chance of showers sunday afternoon. frost/freeze
conditions are likely sunday night.

&&

.aviation...

the line of thunderstorms is on the doorstep of southeast michigan
to start this taf period and will spread through the terminal
corridor through 10-11z. llws remains a concern both ahead of the
line and as the line moves through. pockets of mvfr ceilings and
visibility reduction will be associated with the line. scattered
showers look probable in the wake of the thunderstorm activity, thus
have a light rain prevailing group through the morning. winds turn
out of the west while becoming gusty to around 25 knots this morning
while widespread mvfr ceilings fill in behind front. a gradual west
to east clearing should arrive late this afternoon/evening as winds
decrease after 00z.

dtw/d21 convection...a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected between 7-11z this morning. intensity is expected to be
weakening significantly as it outpaces the instability, so the
severe weather threat still appears low.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 ft this early this morning through
much of this afternoon.

* high for thunderstorms between 07-11z this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 306 pm edt fri apr 17 2026

discussion...

the lingering influence of mid level ridging and surface high
pressure over the eastern great lakes will sustain dry conditions
through the evening. attention then turns to ongoing upscale
convective growth across the upper mississippi valley. this
convection is occurring within a region of rapid destabilization
ahead of a long wave trough and associated surface cold front. the
12z hi res guidance continues to suggest this convection outpacing
sfc instability advection as it tracks across lower mi overnight.
model soundings/plan views do however show an axis of elevated
instability tracking across se mi in the 06z to 12z time frame along
the lead edge of convectively induced short wave impulses. this will
warrant high chances of showers and thunderstorms. there has been a
weakening trend in forecast elevated instability, thus mitigating
the severe weather risk in line with the spc day1 outlook. mid level
thickness diffluence may result in some training, however the
progressive nature of the short wave impulses will limit the risk of
excessive rainfall overnight.

while the plume of elevated instability will exit east of the
forecast area shortly after 12z saturday, the main sfc cold front is
forecast to lag the elevated instability axis, advancing across se
mi late in the morning. boundary layer convergence is shown by
several hi res solutions to result in a line of showers along the
front. despite the shallow nature of this convection, some localized
gusty winds can not be ruled out. this front will mark a notable
airmass change across the region as the advancing longer wavelength
trough drives much colder and drier air across the great lakes this
weekend. 850mb temps will plunge into the negative single digits by
saturday evening. post frontal sfc temps will gradually drop into
the 40s sat aftn/evening. while lows are expected to dip down into
the 30s saturday night, the wnw gradient winds will limit the frost
potential.

there is reasonable model agreement in showing a mid level short
wave impulse traversing srn mi sunday within the base of the longer
wavelength trough. the region of ascent will be concurrent with
diurnal heating/instability. a mid level cold pool will also
contribute to steep mid level lapse rates. this will warrant a
chance of convection, possibly limited in coverage by extremely dry
air in the sub cloud layer. steep low level lapse rates will boost
afternoon highs well into the 40s, keeping precip type mainly rain.
weak instability with convective cloud depths likely reaching the
minus 20c isotherm may support some thunder and small hail. if some
heavier convective elements materialize, a brief interval of wet snow
can not be ruled out. the passage of this wave will result in a
reinforcing shot of cold air. ensemble guidance indicates a high
likelihood that sunday night low temps will drop into the mid to
upper 20s as high pressure expands overhead. some moderate in temps
is forecast early next week. ensemble members suggest any precip
associated with a secondary cold front mid week will be light given
the overall limited moisture.

marine...

winds organize and strengthen out of the southeast this evening in
response to low pressure tracking into northern ontario. moderate
southerly winds with peak gusts in the 25-30kt range expected
tonight before flipping to the west-northwest daytime saturday with
the passage of a respectable cold front. gusts along/immediately
following the front top out around 30kts. another round of showers
and thunderstorms are likely in advance of said front. core of the
colder trailing airmass arrives sunday reinvigorating northwesterly
winds supporting another period of gusts around 30kts. while a
couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential remains low
(<30%). small craft advisories are in effect around the thumb late
tonight into saturday as a result of the stronger winds/higher wave
action with another period of advisories looking warranted latter
part of sunday. strong high pressure then slides across the central
great lakes for monday.

hydrology...

a cluster of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
traverse the region overnight into early saturday morning. recent
model guidance have trended a little weaker with the overall
convection. current indications are for high probabilities for 12
hour rainfall amounts in the quarter to half inch range, with less
than 30 percent probabilities for rainfall totals of three quarters
to one inch. in light of recent rains and saturated soils, any
additional rainfall may lead to some localized minor flooding.
current projections suggest any higher rainfall amounts will be too
localized to worsen ongoing river flooding across the saginaw basin.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......kdk
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.