Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
355
fxus61 kcle 151207
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
707 am est sun feb 15 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) above average temperatures expected through friday resulting in
melting the remaining snow pack and potential localized ice jams on
area rivers.

2) periodic precipitation expected this week, with the greatest
chance on wednesday and possible rain/snow mix to snow towards the
end of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
behind a departing surface low pressure system, high pressure and
upper level ridging will build into the eastern conus through early
next week. this will allow for persistent westerly to southwesterly
flow across the region and surface temperatures will gradually
increase to be above average through that time frame. highs today
will reach into the low to mid 40s, with monday and tuesday seeing
highs in the mid to upper 40s and the central ohio counties seeing
the mid 50s. wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as a warm
front will lift south to north across the region early in the day
and increase southwesterly flow. highs on wednesday will be in the
50s, with the western portion of the cwa up into the low 60s.
overnight lows will follow a similar trend, generally staying in the
upper 30s to low 40s most nights.

the increasing temperatures do bring some potential impacts to the
region in the form of snow melt and ice jams. the remaining snow
pack will melt with temperatures finally above freezing, and will
create minor run-off into local streams and rivers. this could
potentially cause rivers to rise and with the ice deteriorating
and breaking apart, could lead to localized ice jams. will need
to monitor this for the next several days.

key message 2...
periodic showers are expected starting today through the forecast
period. low pressure will be moving to the south of the region today
that will bring a low chance for precipitation across the southern
tier of counties in the cwa. any precipitation should end by the
afternoon and move off to the east. rain chances will return in far
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania monday night into
tuesday morning as a shortwave system and surface troughing move
across eastern lake erie. currently, rain chances are fairly low
during this time frame.

another round of rain showers are expected on wednesday with a more
potent system moving through the great lakes region. with
temperatures warming due to the warm front moving through early that
morning, all of the precipitation will fall as rain. there is some
instability with this system, so a rumble of thunder or two is
possible during the day. thursday is expected to be dry for the most
part, with some lingering showers possible in the morning. friday
picks right back up with precipitation as a low pressure system
moves through the great lakes. precipitation will start off as rain
and transition over to a mix then a wet snow by friday
night/saturday morning with caa behind the departing cold front.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
regional radars show rain gradually spreading northeast across
central ohio this morning. this area of rain is expected to just
clip mfd/yng today with the most prolonged rain at cak between
13-17z. observations upstream are deteriorating both in terms of
ceilings and visibilities. will continue with a mention of ifr
at mfd/cak this afternoon after the rain ends. for tonight,

the degree of clearing this evening is tricky as deeper moisture
pulls away. for areas that clear, patchy fog or low stratus may
try to develop as we continue to melt the snowpack with moist
boundary layer conditions. winds will be light through the
period but could see wind shifts off lake erie at cle and eri
this afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr continuing through monday morning. non-vfr
possible in rain wednesday.

&&

.marine...
winds on lake erie are expected to be 15 knots or less through
monday night. winds develop out of the southeast tuesday night ahead
of the next system and veer to south/southwest on wednesday at 15 to
25 knots. lake erie remains mostly ice covered with a large crack
located east of kelly`s island. above normal temperatures are
expected for the first half of the week, peaking in the upper 50s on
wednesday. this will start to rot the ice and could see more
movement of the ice with the stronger winds on wednesday. persons
should stay off lake erie ice given the forecast for above normal
temperatures and increasing winds this week.

another system moves into the central great lakes thursday night
through friday night with a prolonged period of winds of 20-30
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
389
fxus63 kiwx 151143
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
643 am est sun feb 15 2026

.key messages...

- above average temperatures continue through midweek then turn
colder toward the end of the week.

- rain showers are likely late tuesday night into wednesday
morning. additional chances (30-60%) for rain then late
thursday into friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 201 am est sun feb 15 2026

expansive rain shield on the northern fringe of a deep south low
pressure center may yet clip areas south of the us 24 corridor with
a period of light rain this morning, best chances (40-60%) marion to
portland in before 10 am. dry and warmer conditions the story
otherwise through tuesday as the polar jet remains displaced off to
the north allowing for a feed a milder air into the great lakes
region.

a warm front remains on target to lift through the area later
tuesday night into wednesday morning as shortwave energy and a
developing sfc low eject northeast into the upper midwest and
western great lakes. deepening, moist, southwest flow undercutting
this system will advect a ~1" pwat air mass into the aforementioned
warm front with showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder likely
clipping portions of the forecast area during this time. the bulk of
the forecast area could get solidly into the warm sector by
wednesday afternoon with gusty southwest winds and some filtered
sunshine potentially pushing high temps well into the 60s.

the next jet streak and shortwave ejects out of the western us then
later thursday into friday with another developing low taking a
slightly more suppressed track over or just north of the forecast
area during this time with breezy conditions and additional chances
for rain showers. cooler wx then settles in behind this system next
weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 640 am est sun feb 15 2026

a cut-off mid and upper level system across the lower ms valley
coupled with a weaker northern stream trough has allowed an area
of better low level moisture transport to nudge into central
indiana this morning. kfwa has marked the northern fringe of
some ifr cigs early this morning. it does appear based on
evolution of these waves that moisture transport has reached
its farthest northward extent with a likelihood that kfwa should
start to see improvements in cigs this morning. did include an
hour or two of additional ifr cig potential at kfwa, but greater
potential through remainder of the morning may remain just
south of kfwa. some mvfr vsbys are possible at ksbn given trend
to clearing skies, and greater potential of mvfr cigs are
likely to remain south of this terminal. another weaker upstream
mid level wave will not all the low level moisture gradient to
change its placement too much today, and this gradient may serve
as a delineation as to the greater potential of fog/stratus
development tonight. current indications would suggest most
favored location of this gradient between ksbn and kfwa, with a
higher fog potential tonight at kfwa. toward daybreak monday,
low level height gradient should begin to strengthen which could
transition an initial fog setup to more of a stratus setup
toward the end of the period. at this forecast distance, did
trend kfwa to ifr conditions late tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
919
fxus63 kdtx 151043
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
543 am est sun feb 15 2026

.key messages...

- areas of freezing fog can be locally dense through the morning
mainly north of i-69.

- above normal temperatures resume this afternoon and continue
through mid week.

- the next precipitation event is on schedule for tuesday night and
wednesday. it is an all rain event with wintry mix nearby to the
north of the tri cities and northern thumb.

&&

.aviation...

a broad cirrus shield presently in place across roughly port huron
to coldwater will continue to progress southeast through the morning
hours. the development and expansion of freezing fog north of the
cirrus shield has ramped up over through the mid-morning hours with
highly variable coverage and density, ranging from ifr to mvfr
visibility restrictions. decreasing visibility trends down to lifr
remain possible and would be most likely across kmbs and kfnt as
this is where better radiational cooling resides outside of the
cirrus. as the cirrus shield progresses out of southeast michigan,
some lowered visibility trends will be possible for locations south
just prior to sunrise. after sunrise, lingering freezing fog will
dissipate, leading to vfr conditions for the remainder of the day.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 343 am est sun feb 15 2026

discussion...

light and variable to calm wind and clear sky present a favorable
fog/freezing fog setup mainly north of m-46 leading up to sunrise,
and along and north of i-69 as cirrus peels away early in the
morning. locally dense visibility restriction is most likely in the
tri cities and northern thumb based on upstream observations and
persistence of clear sky and calm wind to wring out full radiational
cooling. visibility trends will be monitored for later updates.

for the rest of today we have a diffuse surface pressure pattern
across lower mi in between larger scale systems in the se states and
central canada. after the fog, prospects for clouds are tied to a
500 mb short wave within the larger scale zonal flow that moves over
lower mi this afternoon. it brings broken coverage of mid and high
clouds again mainly north of i-69 along with limited coverage of
stratocu within the weak surface pressure reflection late in the day
and this evening. still no precipitation indicated and the clouds
are only a minor obstacle to another round of warm afternoon
temperatures. highs in the mid to upper 40s look good inland from
the lakeshores with a few reports around 50 again toward metro
detroit and the ohio border where full sun is more likely.

surface high pressure builds in from the mid ms valley but with a
less favorable fog setup tonight, limited by increasing high clouds
and late developing south wind. the clouds thicken ahead of the next
northern stream short wave which also nudges the surface ridge
eastward before morning. the primary 500 mb wave is well north of
lake superior however secondary midwest low pressure produces a warm
front capable of a larger cloud footprint across the great lakes
during monday. mid level moisture transport also appears capable of
spotty light rain grazing the tri cities and northern thumb judging
by model depictions of theta-e advection. otherwise, the highlight
for monday is increasing sw wind that brings the next step in the
warming trend leading to afternoon highs reaching the lower 50s.

the monday system does have a trailing cold front which brings just
a minimal air mass change as arctic air is contained across canada.
wind veering sw to easterly combined with clouds nudge temperatures
down a few degrees tuesday but still well above normal for mid
february. nbm guidance does a reasonable job reflecting the effect
of wind direction with high temperatures limited to the mid 30s
along the lake huron shoreline to upper 40s interior west of i-75.

the front stalls south of the ohio border and quickly transitions to
a warm front that becomes the focus for the beginning of the main
precipitation event tuesday night and wednesday. mid range
deterministic solutions in the new 00z model run are in good
agreement on the current pacific coast closed low moving through the
rockies and into the plains by tuesday. this results in a broad area
of strong surface cyclogenesis that has access to the moisture from
gulf modified air that is strongly transported northward along and
north of the front tuesday night. generous qpf in widespread rain
showers are the result across southern lower mi as the warm front
moves northward but not entirely through the region until later
wednesday morning. there is enough cold air nearby to the north to
monitor for potential wintry mix in the tri cities and northern
thumb where evening low temperatures are near freezing at
precipitation onset then rise above after midnight.

rain continues wednesday morning until the mid level dry slot and
low level warm sector of the system surge into the area by
afternoon. guidance high temperatures are trending upward compared
to recent forecast cycles and are now in the lower 60s in the
detroit metro area compared to records the upper 60s for 18 feb.
readings drop back into the 40s and 50s for thursday as the track of
the next low pressure system is also west of lower mi. the long wave
trough axis also holds from central canada through the plains
helping keep arctic air out of the great lakes through friday.

marine...

a weakening trough settles into the great lakes today within a weak
pressure pattern overall, ensuring light wind and waves for ice-
free areas. areas of marine fog will be possible through the morning
with low predictability on location and longevity. south wind then
increases to around 10 to 15 kt on monday as a slightly stronger
trough arrives. a ridge of high pressure maintains benign conditions
through tuesday before a more active pattern takes shape from
wednesday into next weekend. a frontal boundary will stall in the
vicinity of the great lakes with multiple low pressure systems
bringing rain, snow, wintry mix, and potential for gusty easterly
winds during this period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...bt
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.