Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 pm edt fri may 15 2026

.what has changed...
timing and impacts of thunderstorms for saturday have become more
refined. otherwise, no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend with a
passing warm front with a few possible strong storms on saturday.
additional rain/thunderstorm chances increase again mid-week with a
cold front passage.

2) there will much warmer temperatures across the region monday and
tuesday being on the southern side of the warm front.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
late this evening a warm front will lift north across the region
with temperatures and dew points increasing behind it. there will be
a remnant complex moving across northern indiana up into michigan
that will enter northern ohio around 12z tomorrow morning. this
feature may have some stronger storms along with it as it enters the
cwa with bulk shear of around 35-45 knots and mucape values being
marginal around 500-1000 j/kg. lapse rates will be lacking given the
time of day this feature will pass through as well.
showers/thunderstorms may have a brief lull as the morning
precipitation exits off to the east by mid-day. in the afternoon,
there will be a weak shortwave moving across the ohio valley that
will help support additional showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon
into the evening. with the break in precipitation mentioned above,
there may be some opportunity for instability to increase in the
western two-thirds of the cwa and less so with the eastern portion
given showers may linger over into peak heating preventing ample
warming. regardless, with the morning precipitation across the
region, how much the area clears out and destabilizes again will be
the main question. though with decent flow aloft, as mentioned above
with the bulk shear, there has been a marginal risk of severe
weather introduced for the western two-thirds of northern ohio for
saturday. this is due to the isolated strong to damaging wind threat
across the region with the morning convection as there is less
confidence during the afternoon/evening in potential strong to
severe weather. showers and thunderstorms will begin to exit out
to the east saturday evening as the shortwave support moves off.

with the warm front stalling out to the north of the region by
sunday morning, there will continue to be some shower and
thunderstorm chances, though will generally be on the low end. an
additional shortwave may pass through the region sunday afternoon
that could help support a few more showers as well. precipitation
chances decrease into monday as the drier air moves into the region.

precipitation chances return to the region mid-week as a low
pressure system enters the great lakes region. pop chances will
increase tuesday ahead of the low and with increase moisture flow.
there still some uncertainty of when the cold front will be and will
impact any thunderstorm chances across the region. additionally,
there looks to be some potential for severe weather with this system
on tuesday, so will need to monitor how it progresses as the forcing
with the cold front will be key to the development.

key message #2:
as the warm front lifts north of the region tonight, temperatures
will begin to warm to be well above average by monday and tuesday.
850 temperatures will rise to 16-18c across the region that will
help support highs in the mid to upper 80s with a few spots possibly
touching 90. the warmest of the days will be monday as there will be
clear skies allowing for temperatures to warm. tuesday won`t be
quite as warm as cloud cover will begin to move into the region from
the west, though highs will still be around the mid 80s.
additionally, dew points will climb as well with the increased south
to southwesterly flow across the region. dew points will climb up
into the low to mid 60s on monday and close to 70 on tuesday. not
expecting any heat related headlines for either day, though given
how early in the season it is, there will be a heat risk. from the
nws heat risk product, it has been highlighting the region with
moderate heat risk for both monday and tuesday, and approaches major
in a few locations for heat related impacts. with moderate level
heat risk, this highlights days with increased impacts due to heat,
and to promote precautions for outdoor plans and/or those with heat
sensitivities. temperatures will begin to moderate wednesday as a
cold front moves through the region with precipitation expected.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
widespread vfr conditions will persist through tonight as high
pressure persists. late tonight into early saturday morning, a
warm front is expected to push north across the area bringing
the potential for widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles
of thunder to all terminals. precipitation should begin around
12z before spreading further east. as the boundary lifts north,
a strong llj will creep into the area, increasing winds from the
south-southwest to 12-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
possible from late morning through the afternoon. the strongest
gusts should be isolated to terminals along and west of i-71.

another round of showers and storms is possible in the afternoon
as a cold front approaches the area from the west. this second
round of showers will bring widespread mvfr ceilings and
possible reductions in visibilities within the heaviest showers.
cannot rule out additional thunder, however the thunder
potential will be highly dependent on how quickly the atmosphere
rebounds from earlier convection. any storms that develop will
have strong gusty winds associated with them.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. non-vfr to return on tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
winds become south 10-20kts tonight into saturday with a warm
front moving across the lake, then southwesterly 10-20kts
through late saturday. wave heights less than 2ft nearshore, but
2-4ft in the open water zones. a stationary front over lake erie
sunday brings variable winds less than 10kts and waves continued
less than 2ft, and then back to offshore early next week
15-20kts monday and tuesday, where wave heights once again will
increase with distance from shore.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...04
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
123 am edt sat may 16 2026

.key messages...

- very warm this weekend with highs in the low 80s.

- showers and thunderstorms at time this weekend and into monday
pose a risk for heavy rainfall and instances of damaging wind
gusts.

- wet and stormy conditions linger into the middle of next
week.

&&

.update...
issued at 735 pm edt fri may 15 2026

several thunderstorms have already developed and rapidly
intensified upstream across sw iowa into se minnesota. models
still agree on further development as they move east and the llj
ramps up. what remains uncertain is what condition they will be
in by the time the reach our western counties later tonight. no
major changes to forecast for the time being, but trends will be
observed into the overnight hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 152 pm edt fri may 15 2026

an active forecast lies ahead but is one muddied by elements of
uncertainty. low pressure over the manitoba/quebec line has a
cold front spreading through the central plains this afternoon.
this cold front is the focus for showers and thunderstorms later
today well to our west. this activity tracks east overnight
arriving to southern lake michigan just before daybreak
saturday. high resolution guidance varies notably with how this
progresses. i have some preference to members that offer a
weakening trend as the line reaches southern michigan. this
occurs as the primary 500-mb jet (75 kts) is focused well north
across the up during the early- morning hours. rising heights
are noted at 500mb as well. in contrast, there is a blossoming
40-knot 850mb jet over northern il. a narrow corridor of 1,000
j/kg mucape paired with 30 knots of bulk shear yields a non-zero
chance for early morning isolated severe storms, but the lack
of upper-level support may be the greatest limiting factor.

as this area of showers and storms tracks east after daybreak
saturday, or perhaps bypasses north, the aformentioned cold front is
now stalled east-west across the forecast area and will be the
focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. boundary- parallel
flow increases the risk of training (backbuilding) thunderstorms
which can result in instances of flooding. our airmass will be
plenty warm and humid, with dew points in the 60s and pwats in
excess of 1.6"; high confidence in rain rates of 1" per hour
saturday afternoon. because of lingering cloud cover, it will
take time for instability to rebuild, struggling to reach 1,000
j/kg paired with about 30 knots of shear. overall, a marginal
risk of isolated damaging wind gusts saturday afternoon, with
heavy rainfall the greater concern.

this front is kicked poleward saturday night as the warm sector
amplifies in response to a trough digging in over the four corner
region. increasing confidence in a mainly-dry sunday as showers and
storms become focused elsewhere in the midwest and upper great
lakes, but will hold on to nbm populated 20-30% pops. monday
still appears to be the "best" day overall for severe
thunderstorms, but timing remains uncertain. a prefrontal
shortwave could be the focus for afternoon storms, well ahead of
the cold front that moves through overnight. in the afternoon,
steep low-level lapse rates present a damaging wind gust concern
from thunderstorms while a unidirectional wind profile, along
with elevated cloud bases, limits the overall tornado concern.
boundary-parallel flow will continue to pose a risk for heavy
rainfall in this warm, humid environment.

the cold front slowly moves through tuesday and wednesday, its
eastward progress slowed by strong subtropical high pressure. thus,
a rainy and stormy start to the week that lingers into at least
wednesday before high pressure pushes in for the late-week
period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 115 am edt sat may 16 2026

thunderstorms continue to our west in southern wisconsin and
northern illinois. as these storms progress eastward early this
morning, they should get into lower michigan around 08-09z. it
is unknown if they will maintain their strength or make it into
northern indiana, but have maintained a tempo group at ksbn to
account for this possibility. considerable uncertainty remains
as to what happens later this afternoon/evening, but if these
pre-daybreak storms produce an outflow boundary, storms may
redvelop later this afternoon along it. greatest
chances will be at kfwa, where a prob30 has been maintained for
this afternoon and early evening. main threats will be isolated
strong wind gusts of 40-50 kts and heavy rain. in both rounds
of storms, mvfr ceilings and visibilities will be possible.
southerly winds will ramp up later this morning, sustained
around 12-15 kts and gusting up to 20-25 kts by the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1153 pm edt fri may 15 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will be
possible overnight.

- increasing temperature trends this weekend into early next week.
high confidence for temperatures in the 80s monday and tuesday.

- multiple opportunities for thunderstorms over the weekend and
early next week with low confidence on timing and coverage.

&&

.aviation...

clear skies remain in place early tonight before currently ongoing
convection over the upper midwest is set to arrive early morning.
exactly how well this convection maintains itself into se mi still
carries uncertainty so have kept prob30 groups. that said, it does
look probable that there will be isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms crossing at least a portion of the area. dependent on
the morning activity, there is a window saturday afternoon for widely
scattered convective development towards the ohio border up into the
detroit area as a surface warm front lifts nearby- chances increase
with lesser morning rain.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms expected through early
tonight. an embedded thunderstorm will be possible with shower
activity 11-14z. thunderstorm redevelopment is possible between 16-
18z saturday afternoon, but confidence is very low in the wake of
the morning activity.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms saturday morning.

* moderate for ceilings aob 5000ft saturday morning, low by
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 243 pm edt fri may 15 2026

discussion...

quiet weather this afternoon and evening as mid-level clouds stream
out of the region early this evening, leading to a brief period of
clear skies a brief period of clear skies. lows drop into the low
50s.

attention for tonight will turn to convective initiation across the
plains, specifically monitoring upscale growth that is expected to
occur across iowa. a pseudo-stationary turning to slow moving front
will serve as the focus for initial storm development, with activity
expected to grow upscale and congeal into an mcs/mcv as it tracks
downstream. a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will support this
evolution by increasing moisture transport and maintaining elevated
instability into the system. a convectively enhanced shortwave
associated with the storm complex is projected to move just south of
the state line but latest hi-res output still retains high pop
coverage overnight across se mi given some degree of elevated frontal
convergence and associated ascent, noting a tightening theta- e
gradient over se mi 10-15z, coincident with strengthening backed
flow through the mid and upper-levels. strong mid-level lapse rates
and mucape ranging between 500-1000 j/kg will help support convective
updrafts and will sustain thunderstorm potential overnight. however
any convection will be far removed from surface based instability and
will remain elevated, and noting the strengthening inversion around
5kft, any severe weather potential will be very low.

low-end lingering shower potential will exist through the late
morning to early afternoon hours. most favorable near or south of
i-94, but a weakly capped environment looks to limit convective
potential through the day despite the uptick in instability. zonal
flow through the low to mid levels will usher in the warmer
temperatures across the plains into the great lakes, pushing daytime
highs in the mid 70s across the cwa, upper 70s into the urban metro
region and up through the tri- cities.

a northwest pacific wave will carve across the western us and
through the rockies sunday into monday which will amplify ridging
across the the great lakes and eastern us through the early week
period. this will push 850mb temperatures towards 17c and will open
up gulf moisture through the plains and great lakes both monday and
tuesday. some showers and storms will be possible sunday along the
leading edge of the warm front with the isentropic ascent, with
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms late monday into
tuesday. the uptick in warm air advection will help push
temperatures into the mid to upper 80s on monday with another round
of above normal temperatures on tuesday. latest nbm output shows
potential for temperatures to reach near 90 or 90 into the urban
metro area tuesday, but confidence in this is low as it will be
predicated in early day shower potential and coverage. a cold front
sweeps through on wednesday, returning temperatures to more normal
values while high pressure behind the front brings a period of dry
weather through the midweek.

marine...

low pressure tracks across ontario tonight, with a surface trough
extending well into the southern plains at issuance. this leads to
downstream strengthening of the pressure gradient and increasing
southwest flow locally through the evening. gusts peak around 20 to
25 knots. this system initially sends an elevated warm front across
the great lakes overnight, creating stable conditions over the cool
waters and allowing gusts to subside. meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms develop west of the great lakes this evening, reaching
the local waters around daybreak saturday. variable winds expected
as convection comes through, with localized gusts over 30 knots
possible. a weaker signal exists for a second round of thunderstorms
early saturday afternoon south of lake huron. drier conditions
emerge by saturday night with a brief period of split flow across
the lakes as a cold front drops in from the north and the southern
stream ridge strengthens. ultimately the southern stream wins out
and brings seasonably warm/unstable conditions to the great lakes
early next week. breezy southerly flow is expected monday-tuesday
along with shower and thunderstorm chances before a cold front
mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...am
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.