Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
085
fxus61 kcle 130657
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
257 am edt fri mar 13 2026

.what has changed...
with the latest forecast, there is a potential for snow showers to
nudge a bit further south this morning, impacting areas extending
from cleveland to erie. little to no accumulation is expected. high
confidence remains in strong winds today with little changes needed
to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) strong winds are expected today which may result in downed trees
and power lines. widespread power outages remain possible today.
scattered rain/snow showers are also possible, especially across
northern counties.

2) another robust low pressure system will impact the region on
sunday and monday, brining another round of strong winds. this
system will have more widespread precipitation.


&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
confidence is high that a high wind event will occur today
across the area, likely resulting in areas of downed trees and
powerlines and the potential for widespread power outages. hi-
res model guidance is persistent in a strong 850mb llj of 50-60
knots pushing across the area. winds will quickly ramp up today
as the mixing layer deepens and lapse rates steepen. current
models continue to suggest mixing heights increasing to almost
850mb this afternoon, leaving a direct path for this llj to mix
to the surface. sustained winds today will reach 25 to 35 mph,
with gusts of 50 to 60 mph likely. the winds gusts will peak
this afternoon. isolated `power showers` are also possible as
any shower that develops will aid in mixing these strong winds
to the surface. with that being said, much of the shower
potential should be focused across the northern counties and
lake erie, although cannot rule out a stray shower further
south. to account for these hazardous conditions, a high wind
warning remains in effect for the entire area today. additional
elevated winds across far neoh and nwpa tonight have warranted
an extension in the headline tonight with those counties now
expiring at 2am edt. winds will return to 5 to 15 mph by
saturday morning, lingering from the northwest.

key message #2:
on sunday, a deepening low pressure system will begin to move
northeast into the great lakes region, moving a warm front north
early sunday. this system will become centered over the region on
monday, moving a strong cold front east. given the very strong
pressure gradient that is expected, confidence continues to increase
in another round of widespread, strong winds.

winds will begin to ramp up sunday afternoon behind the warm front
as temperatures climb into the 60s. along the warm front, scattered
rain/snow showers are possible, although little to no accumulation
is expected. winds will gradually back starting sunday night as a
strong cold front is expected to begin to push east. a strong llj of
50 to 60 knots will push across the area, only enhancing surface
winds. current forecast suggests sustained winds of 25-35 mph with
peak gusts of 40-50 mph possible monday.

in addition, ahead and along this cold front, more widespread rain
showers are expected and given the strong dynamic set-up, cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder. these widespread showers will
progress east throughout the day on monday, gradually transitioning
back to snow monday afternoon as a caa regime sets in. this means
that high temperatures for the day will likely occur monday morning,
reaching into the 50s to 60s before quickly falling into the 20s
overnight. initial snowfall accumulations should remain minimal
given the warmer antecedent conditions, but as showers approach
eastern counties monday evening, caa coupled with a setting sun may
result in snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
a strong low pressure system progressing east through the
central great lakes today will bring high sw to w winds to all
terminals. s to sw winds will increase to 15-20 knots with gusts
of 30-35 knots by 10-12z this morning before further increasing
to 25-30 knots with gusts of 45-50 knots by 13-16z. winds will
gradually turn to the w this afternoon behind the trailing cold
front, with gusts of 45-50 knots continuing. gusts over 50 knots
are possible this afternoon in nw and north central ohio, as
well as near lake erie. at this time, confidence was highest to
put gusts over 50 knots in the kfdy taf. w winds will gradually
diminish this evening.

the bulk of the precip with this system will pass north of the
region, but a band of light snow will lift across the area mid
to late this morning. not sure how much will reach the ground
due to dry air, so kept most terminals vcsh. the best chance to
see snow and periods of mvfr/ifr later this morning is at keri.
additional, scattered rain/snow showers are expected behind the
front this evening, with the best chances for this at kcle and
keri.

outlook...non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow showers
saturday night into sunday. non-vfr may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on monday with lake effect snow possible
monday night into tuesday.

&&

.marine...
strong low pressure passing through the central great lakes
today will bring solid gale conditions to all of lake erie. s to
sw winds will increase to 30-35 knots this morning before
further increasing to 30-40 knots this afternoon while becoming
wsw. gusts to 50 knots are still expected this afternoon. this
will build wave heights to 10-13 feet in the central and eastern
basins and 6-9 feet in the western basin. gale warnings remain
in effect through 08z saturday for the entire lake, with a low
water advisory for the western basin as the wsw winds drop water
levels 1-2 feet below low water datum.

the winds will slowly diminish tonight into saturday morning and
will become light and variable during the day saturday as high
pressure builds across the region. e winds will increase to
15-20 knots saturday night, becoming se and further increasing
to 20-30 knots by late sunday. winds will then turn s sunday
night and eventually wsw monday afternoon while further
increasing to 30-40 knots as another strong low crosses the
region, so gales look likely again sunday night into monday. w
winds will gradually diminish monday night into tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
high wind warning from 8 am this morning to 2 am edt saturday
for ohz011>014-089.
high wind warning from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for ohz020>023-031>033-038.
pa...high wind warning from 8 am this morning to 2 am edt saturday
for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning from 8 am this morning to 4 am edt saturday for
lez142>147-162>167.
low water advisory from 8 am this morning to 4 am edt saturday
for lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning from noon today to 4 am edt saturday for lez148-
149-168-169.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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905
fxus63 kiwx 130650
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
250 am edt fri mar 13 2026

.key messages...

- high wind warning is in effect for gusts up to 60 mph.

- a strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms late
sunday into sunday night, followed by strong winds and snow on
monday. accumulating snow is expected, mainly in northwest in
and southwest mi.

- temperatures mid 60s to near 70 on sunday will crash into the 20s
by monday. tuesday morning wind chills near 0.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 249 am edt fri mar 13 2026

a powerhouse low moves through the great lakes today bringing a
sharp increase in wind gusts this morning that persists through the
day. southwesterly wind gusts by sunrise (45-50mph) become westerly
prior to noon and reach their peak intensity during the midday hours
(50-60 mph). wind gusts diminish near sunset. some guidance suggests
wind gusts of 45 mph could linger in northwest ohio just beyond our
8pm edt expiration time of the high wind warning; trends will be
monitored.

the 992mb low, currently over western mn, is already producing
widespread 45-55 knot (52-63 mph) wind gusts in the wake of its
associated cold front(s). this is well correlated to a 925-mb jet of
similar magnitude working its way through the dakotas. this jet
might lose a few knots of its punch through time as the parent
trough flattens through time, but nonetheless, a very impressive
setup for wind today with the ~990mb low contrasting with a
1024mb high over the southeast us, and mixing this afternoon
tapping into the 60+ knot jet at 850mb (4k ft agl).

along with the wind, a brief period rain/snow is possible this
morning, primarily along and north of the us 6 corridor. a stout
dry layer is so far preventing hydrometeors from reaching the ground
as of this early-morning writing. but, racing across iowa is a
strong but narrow area of rain showers. despite the 12-degree
dew point depressions there, rain is reaching the ground. the
duration of precipitation will be brief locally and little to no
snow accumulation is expected. this afternoon, there could be a
brief period of lake-enhanced snow but duration will be brief
as well, in part due to the overwhelming wind profile today.

the next storm system of interest takes shape during the latter part
of the weekend as low pressure deepens over the central us. an
amplified trough over the plains places us in the warm sector
starting early sunday morning. where this warm front sets up will be
the focus for rain (even some early-am snow showers in southern
mi). as the front progresses north during the day, a period of
dry weather is anticipated before the cold front sweeps through
sunday night and monday. during the dry period,another round of
gusty winds is possible (40-70% chance of 40mph wind gusts).
showers, and a few thunderstorms, along the cold front
depending on instability profiles could produce locally damaging
wind gusts as well. then, by monday morning, rain changing to
snow looks to result in 1-2 inches of snow area-wide before lake
effect snow adds to the total for westerly/northwesterly flow
locations. once again, the sunday to monday period will feature
a 30 to 40 degree temperature change with temperatures monday
tumbling into the 30s.

a highly amplified upper-air pattern persists through the week with
our area on the fringe of a sharp temperature gradient. this
gradient would be the channel for passing shortwaves, including
a clipper system (snow) wednesday, attempting to suppress the
building four corners ridge. overall, am optimistic for a
gradual warming trend beyond midweek but the thermal gradient
and active jet stream results in murky details.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 135 am edt fri mar 13 2026

strong and compact midlevel vort max currently approaching the
great lakes. best forcing for ascent passes just north of the
area but a few sprinkles are possible (too warm for snow). very
dry low levels will keep conditions vfr through the period
though. main concern will be very strong winds through the day.
momentum transfer supports frequent gusts to 45kts at ksbn and
just shy of 50 kts at kfwa. wind direction initially from the
s/sw will steadily veer to wnw by late in the day. expect the
strongest gusts in the 15-18z window with a direction of right
around 260 degrees.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...high wind warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...gale warning until 5 am edt early this morning for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.
storm warning until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
855
fxus63 kdtx 130339
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1139 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snow is likely overnight into friday morning, with
brief intervals of heavy snow and reduced visibilities possible.

- a high wind warning is in effect from 5 am to 10 pm friday for
southwest wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

- another round of accumulating snow is likely saturday night into
early sunday. thunderstorms are then possible sunday night with
strong winds late sunday into monday.

- much colder monday through wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s
and lows in the teens to potentially single digits.

&&

.aviation...

a strong compact low pressure system will move across northern
michigan on friday. a period of good ascent will track across se mi
overnight into early/mid friday morning in advance of this system,
resulting in a period of snow. snowfall duration and intensity will
likely vary across the area, with periods of moderate to possibly
heavy snow possible from ptk up through mbs. this will result in
some accumulations. brief drying will be followed by occasional
rain/snow showers into the afternoon. a deepening mixed layer
combined with very strong low level wind fields will result in wsw
wind gusts over 40 knots at times friday.

for dtw...the most probable window for light snow will be between
08z and 14z. the ascent will be a little more brief at metro in
comparison to locals farther north. this should keep accumulations
under an inch. west-southwest winds will strengthen rapidly after
15z, with frequent gusts in the 40 to 50 knot range expected through
the afternoon. there will be a slight wind direction shift to the
west into the evening hours friday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet friday and friday night.

* moderate in precip type as all snow friday morning.

* moderate in crosswind thresholds being exceeded friday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 817 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

update...

upstream radar/satellite composit, recent trends within the
probobolistic guidance and recent runs of the hrrr are suggesting
some upward trends for potential snow accumulation overnight into
friday morning. of note is the rap indicating strongly unbalanced
flow in the mid levels, courtesy of strong advective processes along
the nose of a 76 knot 850mb speed max. the strongest ascent looks to
be focussed across the saginaw valley and thumb region. a plume of
steep mid level lapse rates is also forecast to rotate into the
region along the back edge of the strongest ascent, arriving roughly
around 12z. this will result in a brief window of enhanced elevated
convective instability, again better across the northern half of the
forecast area. this will increase the chances for a brief period of
higher snowfall rates. of note is the increase in chances for one
inch per hour rates generally along/north of the m 46 corridor
(saginaw to sandusky). a winter weather advisory has therefore been
issued in this area from 3 am to 11 am.

no changes will be made to the high wind warning with this evening
update. while the more persistent high winds are likely to occur
during the afternoon and evening, there are some solutions within
the model prob space which have a secondary peak in wind gusts in
the 6am to 10am time frame, concurrent with the interval of higher
intensity snow. this may result in a brief period of near blizzard
conditions, possibly limited to a degree by the high liquid content
of the snow.

prev discussion...
issued at 302 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

discussion...

active pattern in store through the upcoming weekend, as conditions
remain governed by an oscillating 140 knot upper jet core of north
pacific origin. this environment responsible for directing two
distinct, dynamic pv features toward the region. lead wave ejecting
across the northern plains early this afternoon on pace to arrive
locally late tonight into friday. no meaningful wx prior to midnight
as dry and stable conditions hold within existing surface ridging.
period of deep forced ascent tied to a combination of moist
isentropic ascent and pronounced dcva along the inbound height fall
gradient will then sweep across the lower peninsula during early-mid
morning hours. most meaningful response noted across central and
northern lower mi, but sufficient for all areas to witness a 4-6
hour burst of snow between roughly 1 and 8 am. potential for brief
hourly snowfall rate to exceed half inch per hour north of m-59.
this affords a quick accumulation of an inch or two across this
corridor, with moderate probability for a narrow axis north of m-46
to potentially exceed to 2 inches. healthy proportion of
accumulation confined to grassy/elevated surfaces given the warmer
pavement condition and air temp of 31-32 degrees and trending higher
with time, but expectation for a slushy accumulation to exist for
some during the morning commute.

high magnitude, impactful wind event at the forefront for the friday
period. cold front accelerates through midday. high likelihood for
additional convective shower development as lapse rates briefly
steepen along the frontal convergence and within the immediate cold
air advection during the afternoon. sounding data supportive of a
mix of rain, melting snow and graupel within a chaotic coverage of
healthier convective cores as daylight temperatures recover into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. notable strengthening of the deep layer wind
field at the same time will establish a conducive environment for
strong southwesterly gusts, with peak gust magnitude potentially
enhanced by the shower production. absent of a more meaningful
convective response, a peak in gust magnitude will commence as 925
mb speed reaches near 60 knots around daybreak and again as mixing
depth peaks mid afternoon into the evening under ongoing cold air
advection/isentropic descent. in collaboration with surrounding
offices, belief that the probability is high enough to reach into
the 55 to 60 mph range to highlight the impact with a high
wind warning headline.

main baroclinic zone sags to the south friday night and saturday,
leaving a brief stretch of dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures this period. attention then turns to the potential
impacts of the dynamic mid level system forecast to deepen while
ejecting from the southern plains into the great lakes during the
latter half of the weekend. increasing depth to southwest flow
immediately downstream will draw the elevated warm front back into
the area saturday night and early sunday. sustained moist isentropic
ascent along the active portion of the frontal slope will establish
a band of accumulating snow across lower michigan during this time.
some model variability yet at this stage in both the placement and
duration window. probabilistic data currently indicates roughly a
50% chance for 2" in metro detroit, 3" along the i-69 corridor and
4+ inches across the saginaw valley and thumb.

higher impact winter storm conditions expected northwest/west of the
area given projection of low track across the heart of lower
michigan. assuming a progressive northward propagation of the warm
front sunday as the warm sector makes aggressive inroads along the
eastern flank, forecast favors a brief drying and notable warming
trend for the latter half of sunday. potential for temps to reach
mid 50s to mid 60s depending on pace of the warming relative to
lingering stability. convective potential along the trailing cold
front and along the interface of the inbound low sometime sunday
night. inherently strong kinematic field, but likely lacking on
instability given unfavorable early season nocturnal timing. turning
windy with increasing snow shower potential late monday and monday
night as colder air floods in behind this system. a much colder
airmass then entrenched tuesday, with temperatures a solid 10+
degrees below average. single digits lows possible some locations
wednesday morning.

marine...

a ridge of high pressure will briefly move across the great lakes
through the evening which will bring a short period of lighter winds
through tonight. attention quickly turns to a seasonably strong low
pressure system which will move across northern lower michigan and
central lake huron through tomorrow morning. a strong pressure
gradient will accompany this system and will result in a rapid
uptick in wind speeds and gusts through friday morning. periods of
sustained winds to gales and gusts to high-end gales will be likely
with this system, along with sustained periods of snow, heavy at
times, especially across central and northern lake huron. a very
strong low level jet fills in south of the low across lake erie and
possibly into lake st. clair. if mixing depths overachieve, sporadic
gusts to storm force will be possible and a short fused upgrade to a
storm warning may be needed.

a brief lull in gales will be possible directly under the low
pressure system as it passes central lake huron, however, cold air
fills in in the wake of the departing low which will sustain
favorable mixing depths and quickly bring renewed gales leading into
saturday morning. high pressure fills in for the later part of the
day saturday and will quickly diminish wind speeds.

a second very strong low pressure system is looking likely to impact
the southern great lakes sunday into monday. this will bring
increasing chances to see another round of gales along with winter
weather, including the chance for sustained heavy snow across
northern or central lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 3 am to 11 am edt friday for
miz047>049-053>055.

high wind warning from 5 am to 10 pm edt friday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

low water advisory from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
update.......sc
discussion...mr
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.