Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
989
fxus61 kcle 141754
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1254 pm est sat nov 14 2026

.what has changed...
there are no forecast changes with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect rain/snow showers are expected to continue
through sunday.


2) high pressure will build in for much of next week with
drier, seasonable weather expected. temperatures may rise above
normal by late next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level trough remains over the the northeast conus and
eastern great lakes region this afternoon. a cold northerly
will continue over the eastern great lakes today through early
sunday. scattered lake effect rain showers, mixing with wet snow
at times, will continue across the snowbelt of northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania this afternoon through early sunday.
little to no accumulation is expected with the wet snow. drier
air will start to move into the area later on sunday which will
shut off the lake effect precip. high temperatures today and
sunday will be in the 40s. tonight`s low temperatures will be
in the lower to middle 30s.

key message 2...
high pressure will build over the region early next week and
linger through the end of the week. mostly quiet and dry weather
is in the forecast through much of the upcoming week. high
temperatures will start out seasonable in the upper 40s to lower
50s. by the middle and end of the week, high temperatures will
be above average in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
wide spread mvfr with pockets of ifr/lifr expected through the taf
period as lake effect showers continue across ne oh and nw pa.
ceilings will generally be 015-025 with winds around 10 knots from
290-320 through the overnight hours. showers are possible at ktol,
though probability is low given there will be some dry mid-level air
beginning to mix in. sites from kcle eastward, will see off and on
lake effect showers from this afternoon into tomorrow morning. kyng
could briefly drop down to lifr this afternoon in the showers given
the wind direction and upslope. showers should begin to taper off
around 15z tomorrow morning but non-vfr ceilings will continue.
winds will shift to be 330-360 at 8-12 knots from 15z onward as
well.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania into monday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories will remain in effect from the islands
east to conneaut oh through late sunday morning and from
conneaut oh to ripley ny until early sunday morning. winds will
be from the northwest 15 to 25 knots today into tonight.
northwest winds will relax 10 to 15 knots later on sunday and
continue into sunday night. winds will shift from the west 10
knots or less on monday. by tuesday, winds will become
southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots. similar flow will
persist through wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 4 am est sunday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...23
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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519
fxus63 kiwx 141755
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1255 pm est sat nov 14 2026

.key messages...

- scattered lake effect rain showers/drizzle will diminish
through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening with
mostly cloudy skies expected. a few light rain showers near
lake michigan will be possible into late tonight.

- below normal temperatures continue today through the weekend
followed by slowly moderating temperatures into the low to mid
60s by the end of the upcoming work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1240 pm est sat nov 14 2026

with the north to northwesterly flow in place the pesky lake
effect rain showers and drizzle will continue into this evening
and areas near lake michigan may still see a few light rain
showers/sprinkles into late tonight as drier air is entrained on
the eastern side of the high amplitude ridging that is slowly
moving eastward into the region. however, lake effect clouds
will stick around through most of the day sunday. temperatures
on sunday will remain cool with high temperatures remaining
mostly in the mid to upper 40s with the clouds keeping solar
insolation in check.

but as the ridging continues to push eastward into the area a
gradual warming trend will commence monday onward with slight
warming each day along with decreasing cloud cover into the
beginning of the work week. highs monday through wednesday will
warm into the 50s, and by thursday high temperatures will get
back into the low to mid 60s into the weekend. a bit of
uncertainty in the longer term as guidance is rather quick to
break down the high amplitude ridging over the central conus
which may be too progressive with this type of pattern.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 630 am est sat nov 14 2026

predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions at the terminals, with the
best potential for any rain/snow showers at ksbn this morning.
as of right now, light rain is reported with a temp around 34
degrees at ksbn, with ceilings around 2500 ft. upstream
observations and model guidance suggest there is potential for
ceilings to drop to 1500-2000 ft this morning with vis around
5sm, so have a tempo until 16z to accommodate this. guidance is
conflicted with respect to how long the potential exists for
these lower thresholds and showers (some take the precip/lower
ceilings just northeast of the terminal after 16z), so have a
prob30 to cover this. otherwise, mvfr conditions approach with a
trough this afternoon and evening, bringing even kfwa down to
mvfr (they are temporarily clear/vfr right now). some of the
guidance suggests a lake influence all the way inland with a
boost in lift from the trough creating rain showers this
afternoon, but it`s tough to say how impactful they will be
given incoming dry air. have a prob30 at kfwa for the most
likely time period of any showers, with potential for ceilings
around 2kft.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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201
fxus63 kdtx 141720
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1220 pm est sat nov 14 2026

.key messages...

- a narrow corridor of lake effect rain showers (briefly mixed with
melting snow) persists today and tonight, mainly along the southern
lake huron shoreline.

- mostly cloudy skies expected elsewhere through the weekend.

- brisk morning winds drop wind chills into the 20s (isolated upper
teens) sunday morning.

- dry weather expected area-wide monday through thursday with a
steady warming trend.

&&

.aviation...

surface high pressure spans a broad area from northern ontario to
the gulf coast, along the ms river valley, but is slow to move
eastward this afternoon and tonight. this maintains nw flow that is
cold enough to support widespread activation of great lakes clouds
across lower mi through at least sunday morning. satellite and
surface observations leading into this afternoon report mvfr below
2000 ft across the region that grinds up above 2000 ft with a few
breaks at times during peak daytime heating. model soundings
indicate an adequate subsidence inversion developing just in time to
trap broken mvfr tonight and sunday morning. another round of
diurnal enhancement fights against inbound high pressure for slow
improvement sunday afternoon.

for dtw... ceiling remains below 5000 ft during any breaks of mvfr
this afternoon. nw wind off the slightly higher terrain is also
capable of producing mvfr ceiling variability tonight through
sunday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 232 am est sat nov 14 2026

discussion...

the synoptic environment continues to evolve as expected given the
highly amplified omega block draped across conus. southeast michigan
remains positioned near the eastern longwave trough axis which will
undergo a restructuring during the course of the day. the primary
upper low is expected to become absorbed by a retrograding 528 dam
500 mb low tracking southwestward along the st. lawrence river,
which then settles over the northeast this evening. meanwhile,
upstream longwave ridging drifts eastward, easing into the upper
midwest/minnesota. this results in the local area becoming
positioned between the complementary waves while an embedded speed
max transits due south over the central great lakes. the cva induces
subtle forcing aloft to maintain localized areas of lake effect
precipitation for most of the day. however, coverage will be limited
to the eastern thumb and locations along the immediate southern lake
huron shoreline, after northerly flow backs north-northwesterly
later today.

thermodynamically, deterministic solutions indicate slight
degradation of the existing thermal trough as weak warm advection
slips in from the encroaching ridge. 850 mb temperatures should lift
by 2 or 3 c today, but still anomalously cold, resulting in highs
only in the mid 40s. regarding precipitation type within the narrow
corridor of lake effect showers, forecast soundings reveal eventual
drying through the dgz as flow backs between 5 and 7 kft agl. this
limits the likelihood for ice nuclei, therefore, rain is the
preferred hydrometeor form as the day progresses. note that some
snowflakes could still mix in during the morning hours today given
deeper saturation depths. not as chilly overnight thanks to
insulating lake stratocumulus, but still colder than normal.

the lower tropospheric anticyclone builds northeastward out of the
mid-mississippi valley sunday, weakening boundary layer flow. lower
column winds now look to retain a northwesterly, if not north-
northwesterly trajectory well into the afternoon hours, but the lack
of shear should suffice in concluding residual lake effect
precipitation by mid afternoon. likewise, lake induced clouds will
linger into sunday evening, and likely into the overnight hours.
significant column drying and subsidence ensue sunday night as the
longwave ridge crosses overhead. 1030 mb surface high pressure
gradually builds into the ohio valley with time which flips weak
gradient flow southwesterly.

temperatures moderate throughout next week as the ridge flattens but
lingers from southern appalachia into the southeast. this preserves
an increasingly confluent stream of milder gulf-modified air from
the southwest. a progressive pacific wave unblocks the pattern and
is what causes the ridge to de-amplify, but mid-range guidance
continues to delay the arrival of embedded shorter wavelength
cyclonic features until thursday or friday. still, most of the qpf
associated with the passing surface reflection tracking across the
up/lake superior also holds farther north. solutions also differ in
the passage of the attendant cold front, with warm advection
possibly hanging on as the next wave`s deeper core preserves
southwesterly flow into the weekend. global models suggests 850 mb
temperatures could make a run at 10c late next week, suggesting 2m
temperatures above 60f may be achievable. some ensembles families
support this case, in addition to the lack of measurable
precipitation before the weekend.

marine...

northwest flow holds today which will sustain breezy conditions
across lake huron. gusts ranging between 20 to 25 knots are
expected. ongoing lake effect rain bands will also continue across
the southern lake huron basin through the day. the small craft
advisories remain in effect from the outer saginaw bay to port
huron, aligned where elevated wave heights reside. an isolated
waterspout cannot be ruled out with any stronger rain shower. high
pressure to then build in over the great lakes starting tomorrow.
this will end lake effect precipitation across southern lake huron
by the afternoon as wind speeds decrease. the influence of high
pressure will bring an extended period of dry weather through the
midweek period along with lighter winds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.