Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
643
fxus61 kcle 142008
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
408 pm edt sun jun 14 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will continue
to move east and exit the area by around 7 pm. damaging wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph are the greatest concern.

2) a stronger low pressure system will develop and move east through
the great lakes wednesday night into thursday. some stronger storms
and gusty winds are possible.

3) a compact system will move east through the central great lakes
tuesday night into wednesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms
into the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
currently tracking the evolution of strong to severe storms
across the area this afternoon, with perhaps the most potent
storms still located just north of the area over lake erie.
believe this specific storm cluster, located generally north of
lorain/cuyahoga counties over lake erie, will be the most
capable of producing 70+ mph winds over the next couple of hours
as it eventually enters portions of lake, ashtabula, and the
northwest pennsylvania counties. mlcape values continue to hover
around 1000 j/kg, though the synoptic wind field still remains
favorable for organized thunderstorms, particularly across far
northeast ohio into northwest pennsylvania where 700 mb flow is
nearing 40 to 45 knots ahead of the advancing cold front.
damaging wind gusts still appear to be the primary hazard with
any stronger storms, though a brief embedded spin-up or two
remain possible as well, particularly closer to the oh/pa
border.

a quite chilly air mass will arrive behind the front tonight into
monday morning, with 850 mb temperatures falling to around 4 degrees
c. a lingering trough behind the front combined with the chilly air
mass may result in some scattered lake-enhanced rain showers across
portions of northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania into monday
morning. can`t rule out some spots across northwest pennsylvania
struggling to reach the 60-degree mark on monday.

key message 2...
continuing to monitor the potential for a highly-anomalous low
pressure system to develop and move east through the great lakes
late wednesday into thursday. model guidance is beginning to
come into agreement for mid to upper-level trough placement and
strength, though specific surface features still remain
uncertain. low-level moisture is forecast to quickly increase
ahead of the advancing surface low wednesday night, with dew
points climbing into the 60s.

at this time, it appears the most favorable cape/shear overlap
(reflected by ens probs of mucape > 1000 j/jg) and the highest
potential for severe weather wednesday night into thursday will
reside just to the south and southwest of the area, though lowering
this threshold to 500 j/kg does yield some concern further north
into our area. will continue to monitor trends for this potentially
significant system.

in addition to the threat of strong to severe storms, we may also
have to contend with the strong associated wind field of this
system, with probs increasing (30 to 50%) for wind gusts to exceed
45 mph, especially thursday afternoon.

.key message 3...
a compact shortwave will move east through the central great lakes
late tuesday into wednesday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms
moving east into the area tuesday evening and overnight. at this
time, the greatest risk for any stronger storms appears to be just
west of the i-75 corridor, with wind gusts being the primary
concern, though will continue to monitor trends for any impacts to
our area.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
at 17:20z/sun, a surface cold front had just swept se`ward
across ktol. this front will continue moving se`ward and should
exit the rest of our region by 22z/sun. behind the front, a
surface high pressure ridge builds from the northern great
plains and vicinity through 18z/mon. ahead of the front, our
regional surface winds trend sw`erly around 10 to 15 knots and
will gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times. behind the front, winds
veer to w`erly to nw`erly around 10 to 15 knots and will gust
up to 20 knots at times, especially prior to 00z/mon.

isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead of the surface front, while a line of showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the surface cold front. brief mvfr
to lifr and torrential rainfall will accompany these showers and
storms. these showers and especially storms will likely produce
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 55 knots. some of
these storms may produce hail up to half dollar-size. behind the
surface cold front, widespread mvfr to perhaps ifr ceilings and
periods of steady to heavy rain with vfr to mvfr visibility,
associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front, are
expected to persist for several hours before exiting generally
e`ward. isolated thunderstorms may be embedded in this
widespread rain.

once the widespread rain exits our region, primarily dry weather
and vfr are expected through 18z/mon. however, scattered to
broken lake-effect stratocumuli with bases near 2.5kft to 4kft
agl are expected to stream generally se`ward from lake erie
through about mid-morning on mon. these stratocumuli should
produce light to occasionally moderate rain showers through
~13z/mon and cause visibility to vary between vfr and mvfr.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
forecast tuesday afternoon through this friday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front continues to sweep se`ward across lake erie through
this late afternoon. behind the front, another high pressure
ridge builds from the northern great plains through monday.
primarily sw`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots ahead of the cold
front veer to nw`erly behind the front. these nw`erly winds may
flirt with 20 knots at times through the first couple of
predawn hours of monday morning. the nw`erly winds then ease
slightly to around 10 to 15 knots and back gradually to sw`erly
later monday morning through sunset monday evening as the high
pressure ridge axis moves e`ward across lake erie. waves of
mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers are
possible behind the cold front through the first few predawn
hours of monday morning. refrained from issuing a small craft
advisory since forecast conditions are marginal.

s`erly to sw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or
less are expected monday night through wednesday as the
aforementioned ridge exits e`ward. however, these winds may
flirt with 20 knots at times tuesday night into wednesday
morning. thus, waves up to 4 to 5 feet are possible at times in
open u.s. waters tuesday night through wednesday morning.
during wednesday night through thursday, a potent low should
wobble ene`ward from the upper ms valley to southern qc. in
response, a warm front should sweep ne`ward across lake erie
wednesday night and be accompanied by sse`erly to sw`erly winds
freshening to around 20 to 30 knots. these winds may flirt with
35 knots at times. waves should build to as large as 5 to 10
feet with occasional 12 footers. the projected low track should
allow a cold front to sweep e`ward across lake erie on
thursday. the cold front passage should cause winds around 20 to
30 knots, perhaps flirting with 35 knots at times, to veer to
w`erly. waves as large as 5 to 10 feet with occasional 12
footers are forecast. based on latest official forecast trends,
confidence remains high in the eventual need for a small craft
advisory and beach hazards statement. will continue to monitor
official forecast trends for a potential gale and the possible
eventual need for a low water advisory.

behind the cold front, a high pressure ridge should build slowly
from the north-central united states and vicinity through
friday. accordingly, w`erly to nw`erly winds should ease
gradually to around 10 to 15 knots and waves should subside to
3 feet or less by daybreak friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
631
fxus63 kiwx 141945
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
345 pm edt sun jun 14 2026

.key messages...

- gusty northwest winds behind a cold front will diminish in speed
early this evening.

- there is a high swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
into this evening. life threatening waves and currents are
expected.

- dry and cool weather persists into monday and monday night.

- chances for showers and thunderstorms return tuesday into thursday.
a marginal risk for severe weather exists for tuesday and a
slight risk exists for wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 344 pm edt sun jun 14 2026

a break in the active pattern is in store to begin the week, but
additional chances of showers and thunderstorms can be expected for
the tuesday through thursday period.

surface cold front has exited the local area as of 19z with primary
instability axis now situated from south central to north central
ohio. the threat of severe weather has ended locally with just
another hour or two of light shower potential as lagging mid/upper
level trough interacts with elevated frontal boundary. otherwise
heading into this evening strong low level subsidence and increasing
low level dry air advection should result in decreasing clouds. a
lull in wind gusts has been noted in wake of the convective line
that went through ne in/nw oh, but gradually deepening mixed layer
under cold air advection influence should result in at least a brief
window later this afternoon of stronger 25 to 35 mph wind gusts.

another upper level trough from the dakotas will sink southeast into
the mid ms valley tonight but will have little in the way of
moisture to work with. a broad anticyclone will settle across the
ohio valley behind this short wave for monday with below normal
temperatures and low humidity values.

there has been a consistent guidance signal of a northwest flow wave
dropping through downstream portion of western conus ridge for
tuesday into the great lakes region. overall amplitude of this
pattern will keep flow more westerly preceding this short wave which
will ultimately limit any notable moisture return. this should limit
moisture availability in terms of severe weather potential but
overall shear profiles should be sufficient for a marginal wind/hail
given broad deep largely unidirectional westerly shear.

medium range guidance still suggests much more aggressive
dampening of western conus ridge later in the week as a 140+
knot upper jet streak noses across the dakotas tuesday night. a
40-50 knot southwesterly low level jet should develop across
mo/il/ia on wednesday with potential strong moisture convergence
into this region. categorical pops were maintained for later
wednesday into wednesday night as local area may be positioned
on a fairly strong instability gradient with this synoptic setup
that would favor propagation of upstream convection into the
local area. the main question regarding severe weather potential
for wednesday will be exact west-east (warm frontal) boundary
placement and just how strong low level mass fields are. gfs
deterministic runs seem to be influenced by a large degree of
influences from diabatic process and potential convective
feedback impacts on mass fields which make this determination
difficult at this forecast distance. shear profiles should be
robust however, so will have to monitor this period going
forward.

another shot of low level caa later thursday should suppress this
front enough for cooler/drier conditions late work week/early next
weekend, but agreement in medium range guidance begins to break down
by next weekend in terms of extent of blocking across south
central/eastern canada and how far north any return advective
forcing can reach. guidance consensus would suggest some
additional chances of showers/storms by late next weekend with
near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 207 pm edt sun jun 14 2026

surface cold front has cleared the terminals as of 18z with
primary instability axis departing ne indiana. the potential of
thunder at the terminals as come to an end, with a potential of
an hour or two of intermittent rain showers at kfwa through 19z
or 20z with some low level fgen lagging behind the sfc front.
lagging upper level trough could also prolong a few isolated
showers into mid-late afternoon. some mvfr cigs will likely
persist through 20z with post- frontal caa but otherwise dry air
advection and strong low level subsidence should result in
improving trends later this afternoon. deepening mixed layer
with caa should allow for period of synoptic 25+ knot gusts mid-
late afternoon with gusts diminishing toward 00z. quiet weather
expected for monday with core of sfc anticyclone drifting across
the ohio valley.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 10 pm cdt this evening for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
891
fxus63 kdtx 141931
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
331 pm edt sun jun 14 2026

.key messages...

- seasonally cool temperatures persist this week.

- dry monday, but showers and storms return tuesday
afternoon/evening and again wednesday afternoon into wednesday
night.

-heaviest rainfall is expected wednesday night, with widespread
amounts in excess of 1 inch possible.

- windy conditions arrive on thursday, with wind gusts potentially
reaching or exceeding 40 mph.

&&

.discussion...

thunderstorms and showers are exiting the central great lakes, as
mlcapes did end up exceeding 1000 j/kg over wayne/monroe counties
earlier, allowing for a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms. much quieter weather will settle in for the next 24
hours as northwest upper-level confluent flow takes hold. a strong
shortwave will track through the ohio valley on monday, but will
miss southern lower michigan entirely as a dry airmass prevails.

a deep upper-level low anchored over/near hudson will dominate the
atmospheric pattern through the upcoming week. this setup will
maintain a persistent northwesterly flow aloft, keeping the
temperatures seasonably cool across southeast michigan. the primary
forecast challenges revolve around the timing of distinct shortwave
troughs pivoting around the main upper-level low.

medium range models remain in pretty good agreement indicating a
good 1-2 punch of upper level support late tuesday/evening,
and then again wednesday evening/night. the wednesday night system
looks to be the stronger of the two, bringing a heavy rain
threat (with totals potentially exceeding 1 inch) and
strong to severe thunderstorms. the 12z euro indicates a
seasonably strong surface low tracking through central/northwest
lower michigan, which raises concerns for severe weather given
exceptional 0-6 km bulk shear on the order of 65-75 knots.
fortunately, the clean warm sector and deeper instability should
have difficult time pushing past the southern michigan
border, with more of an occulded structure setting up.

this strong system slowly exits thursday, leaving residual troughing
and cool northwest flow to keep low shower chances and below-normal
a temperatures through friday. a tight pressure gradient and deeper
boundary-layer mixing on thursday will support a windy day, with the
potential to reach or exceed 40 mph per the euro ensemble mean.

&&

.marine...

showers and thunderstorms have exited into southern ontario and the
eastern great lakes this afternoon as low pressure continues
eastward. the post-frontal airmass has also veered weakening
gradient winds north/northwesterly. this current lull in winds/gusts
fades tonight as slightly stronger lower column flow moves over the
waterways. this should mainly impact portions of saginaw bay and the
thumb nearshores, with gusts approaching 25 knots. a small craft
advisory remains in place through monday morning. drier conditions
take hold tonight and monday as high pressure migrates across the
southeast. this causes flow to flip southwesterly monday night into
tuesday, ahead of the next low and cold front. expect showers and
storms to reach the central waterways by tuesday afternoon with the
next wave. a brief break in activity ensues wednesday, followed by a
secondary stronger system wednesday night into thursday. a higher
likelihood exists for more intense convection with the wednesday
night system. seasonably strong gradient winds will also accompany
the low, with gusts to gales possible thursday, after mixing
profiles improve featuring 45-60 knot flow within the lowest 1-5 kft
layer.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt sun jun 14 2026

aviation...

the strong convection has pushed east of the area but light showers
remain over ptk and points southeastward. the rest of the showers
should come to an end around 19z, leading to drier northwest flow
the rest of the afternoon. there continues to be a signal in the
hires models for a mid level trough and wrap around moisture around
this mornings low to initiate a few isolated showers later this
afternoon at least for mbs, fnt, and ptk. will leave the prob30 for
now and adjust as needed. skies will be a bit chaotic this afternoon
as multiple layers of clouds tied to the low push east. once the
drier air grabs hold this evening should have a strong clearing
trend overnight. some diurnal cu will be possible monday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast tonight and
monday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. low
tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until noon edt monday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.