Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
327 am est thu jan 29 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains on track with sustained cold weather
through sunday night. there will be intermittent low chances
for light snow through saturday night. there is increasing
confidence in a slight pattern shift to allow for less frigid,
but still below normal temperatures, next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) very cold weather persists through sunday night with nightly air
temperatures below zero and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero
or colder. the air temperatures may approach record low values
on friday and saturday mornings. the cold weather will continue
to pose a significant risk of exposure to people and animals
and damage to infrastructure.

2) there are intermittent snow chances through saturday night,
mainly today, friday night, and saturday, with lake effect snow
and the arctic high pressure enter the region. there may be some
low end travel impacts with any repetitive shower activity.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
while a surface trough remains in the region today, a strong
arctic high pressure system will begin advancing southward
today, reaching the us/canada boarder in the upper midwest by
friday morning. this surface high will continue to expand south
and east through the weekend and allow for a reinforcing shot of
colder air through the region. high temperatures will stay below
20 degrees through sunday and low temperatures will be near to
below zero nightly through sunday night.

for this morning, a mix of clouds from the trough and upstream
lake effect has covered a large portion of the area. this has
allowed for slightly "milder" air temperatures staying above
zero. these clouds will push south through daybreak and there
may be a brief drop below zero and combined with 10 kts of wind,
there will be a short window for wind chills of -15f or so.
therefore, will maintain the cold weather advisory through 11 am
for a portion of northeast ohio.

for tonight into friday, less clouds and colder air advecting
into the region will allow for more widespread and longer
lasting temperatures below zero. however, with the advancement
of the surface high, winds will calm in the decoupling
atmosphere and the ambient temperature and wind chill will
likely be the same. therefore, while the air temperatures may be
colder, the wind chills may be less frigid than recent days.
therefore, have not issued a cold weather advisory for tonight
into friday. if some slightly stronger winds can develop on the
higher elevations of northern ohio and nw pa, there could be a
portion of the area that could briefly hit advisory levels, but
confidence is low on the headline need at this time.

for friday night into saturday, this period will be the coldest
of the entire stretch with potential record-breaking low
temperatures in the -5 to -15f range for the forecast area.
however, these values are going to be achieved only if high
pressure allows for a a fully decoupled atmosphere and there can
be a brief period without clouds or snow showers to interrupt
the temperature drop. this seems likely to happen for most of
the forecast area with some waning confidence in nw pa and far
ne oh. if the surface high does allow for these temperatures to
drop, there will be very little wind across the region until
closer to daybreak on saturday as the upper trough axis crosses
the region. overall, there continues to be support for at least
another cold weather advisory for friday night. if winds pick up
more than currently anticipated, there is an outside chance for
an extreme cold headline.

with 4 additional days of temperatures of 20 degrees or colder
expected, the strain from the cold will increase daily. this
prolonged stretch of cold conditions will result in increased
infrastructure problems, including burst pipes and dead car
batteries. there will be additional stress on people and
animals, as well. folks should continue to limit time outdoors
and wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and other
impacts from cold exposure, including hypothermia. pets and
other animals should have limited time outdoors.

there will be a slight "pattern break" behind the high pressure
system next week. high temperatures in the 20s are currently
expected with a warm front behind the system and low
temperatures will rise above zero. however, temperatures are
not expected above freezing any time soon.

key message 2...
there will be several low chances for snow for portions of the
area through saturday night with lake effect snow continuing to
flare across the region and several waves of energy moving
through ahead of the arctic surface high. snow early this
morning through today will be a function of a surface trough
remaining across the area and some lake enhancement through some
of the small remaining cracks in lake erie and upstream
connections to lakes michigan and superior. only expecting a few
tenths of snow in the worst case scenario. overall, the
aggregate air mass across the region is very dry and not
expecting efficient snows at this time.

the main upper trough axis will push through on friday night
into saturday and allow for flow to shift northerly. the trough
itself may flare up some snow showers across the region. more
importantly, this trough will allow for the lake huron fetch to
enter the forecast area more fully. with that, have some low
pops to address the snow potential. will need to see if
coverage/persistent of snow will increase and if pops need to be
pushed to chance for portions of saturday. again, the overall
air mass is dry with this arctic pattern, so not expecting too
much snow.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
a mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area
tonight with mvfr ceilings and visibilities occurring at
terminals impacted with snowfall. the snow will continue to be
fairly isolated to those terminals downstream of lake erie,
including kcle and keri, however some lake effect snow coming
off of lake michigan may impact ktol. outside of the areas of
light snow, ceilings generally range from 3-5kft, periodically
resulting in terminals bouncing between vfr and mvfr. this will
likely remain the case for much of this taf period.

current southwest winds of 5-10 knots will gradually become
northwesterly at 5-10 knots by thursday afternoon. by the end
of this taf period, winds are expected to become light and
variable.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through this weekend with the
exception of diurnal low-end vfr or mvfr ceilings and transient
light snow showers. a more widespread non-vfr threat may arrive
on monday in snow showers with a clipper.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through early
next week as a strong arctic high builds overhead. w winds this
morning will slowly veer nw this afternoon and decrease to 5-10
knots, with winds becoming light and variable tonight and nnw
friday. nnw winds will slightly increase to 10-15 knots saturday
into saturday night before turning wnw and decreasing to 5-10 knots
sunday. winds will turn sw and increase to 10-15 knots monday ahead
of a trough progressing through the great lakes.

the arctic airmass and relatively light wind field across the region
will allow ice on lake erie to further expand and thicken through
the weekend.

&&

.climate...
record low temperatures are possible on friday and saturday. here
are the daily record low minimum temperatures for january 30 and 31:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019)
01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for ohz006-
008-009-017>019-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
555 am est thu jan 29 2026

.key messages...
- stretch of significant cold lingers through this weekend
with wind chills frequently below zero.

- scattered lake effect snow showers continue today along and
north of us 30 in in and mi. a coating to 1 inch possible,
mainly near lake mi.

- the potential for a period of heavier lake effect snow
increases into mainly la porte in and southwest berrien mi
counties friday night into saturday morning. (medium
confidence)

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 am est thu jan 29 2026

long duration cold snap continues through this weekend with periods
of sub-zero wind chills during mainly the overnight and morning
hours. les remains the primary focus otherwise with nuisance type
snow showers and flurries persisting through the day today across
favored wnw snow belts. this lake plume should continue to have
convective depths well into the dgz, though light flow and
diminishing influence of a subtle lake aggregate trough should
generally keep amounts less than an inch, and focused closer to
the lake.

attention later tonight through saturday morning then turns to
potential periods of more impactful/intense les in far nw in and far
southwest mi (primary la porte and southwest berrien counties).
synoptically, the feature of interest aloft will be a west to east
oriented polar trough dropping south from hudson bay. this feature
likely aids in the development of a lake-induced meso-low that could
clip areas near the lake with a brief period of heavier snowfall
rates late thursday night into friday morning. the key thereafter
will then turn to a wobbling single/convergent band that develops
behind this feature in northerly flow. there is increasing
confidence in a northeasterly component to the boundary layer flow
which should effectively push the lake plume west of the area during
the day friday. trajectories become more northerly though into
friday night and saturday morning which likely brings the single
band back east to near our border with lot. this definitely has the
potential to be a healthy single band with intense snowfall rates
given the long lake convergence and favorable alignment of saturation
and lift within the snow growth region. considered a 4th period
winter storm watch for la porte county, but opted to hold off for
now with better probs (30-50% or greater) for warning level
snow/impacts more into lake/porter in counties.

the core of the arctic air finally lifts out next week allowing for
a gradual trend toward more temperate conditions, though still below
average for early february. broad troughing holds on otherwise with
a couple of weaker shortwaves taking aim on the region for light
snow chances. guidance generally favors monday and wednesday for
timing of these waves and snow chances (30-50%).

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 555 am est thu jan 29 2026

light northwest flow is maintaining some lake effect snow around
ksbn but very dry air/limited instability is keeping snowfall
rates very light. periodic mvfr visibilities are expected
through the morning with some very brief ifr not out of the
question. ceilings will likely continue to hover around 3kft at
both sites through the period. expect a brief break in lake
effect snow at ksbn this afternoon as convective depths continue
to drop but more snow is possible by the end of the period as
another shortwave approaches.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for
inz022>027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz016-
024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 291116
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
616 am est thu jan 29 2026

.key messages...

- wind chills minimize in the 10 to 15 degrees below zero range
friday and saturday mornings; wind chills near 20 below possible
for the thumb and tri-cities friday morning.

- intervals of flurries or light snow showers possible at times
today through saturday with minimal accumulation expected.

&&

.aviation...

upper level confluence is expected to weaken lake aggregate surface
troughing over the great lakes today. predominate vfr conditions
throughout the day for much of the area. cold air mass will bring
the potential for passing flurries or light snow but no significant
accumulations is anticipated. shortwave energy pushing due southward
from canada will sharpen another arctic front or dewpoint gradient
late tonight. there is some signal that surface convergence will
develop ahead of this front and lead to some better chances for snow
showers between 23-05z this evening. included prevailing groups at
all sites for mvfr snow. the better potential appears at kfnt and
kmbs but no significant accumulation is anticipated.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings around or below 5000 feet today.

* high in precipitation type of snow

* low in visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings of 200 ft.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 355 am est thu jan 29 2026

discussion...

large-scale geopotential height adjustments are underway this
morning over the eastern half of conus as a 500 mb low gets
dislodged and sheared by a retrograding inverted shortwave polar
trough and a 150+ knot unified jet core. this allows the cold air
reservoir from ontario and quebec to spill southward this morning.
even though the center of the cold airmass features a minimum 850 mb
temperature of minus 30c, the northern great lakes will moderate the
coldest air upon arrival in southeast michigan, generally between
minus 23c to minus 20c. slight moistening and cooling within the
boundary layer allows for a diurnal response in lake effect snow
showers. expect limited coverage today, likely in isolated to widely
scattered fashion later in the day as northwesterly low-level wind
field decreases. better potential resides over the southern half of
the forecast area this evening for brief light snowfall, after the
southern lake michigan thetae plume releases southeastward. little
to no accumulation expected.

another very cold night develops, although lake stratocumulus will
affect how chilly temperatures and wind chills get. model data has
continued to trend cloudier for most of the area, with the main
exception being the thumb, and possibly the tri-cities. further
south, the potential to approach/exceed cold weather advisory
criteria will be lower. a few additional flurries are possible early
tonight, with a lower column perturbation, but accumulations will be
light, if any.

similar thermodynamic profiles should be in place friday as the
inverted mid-level circulation carves through the plains. the
zonally oriented collapsing upper trough axis translates through
lower michigan causing flow to turn northerly. yet another
opportunity for pockets of light snow/flurries on friday as steep
surface-based lapse rates activate a shallow supersaturated cloud
layer (wrt ice). highs stay parked near the 10f mark, supported by
flow trajectories arcing back into the canadian prairies. this
upstream ridge takes an abrupt southward turn friday night into
saturday morning as the 1050 mb surface high builds into the
southern plains. this continues the advection of arctic air into the
great lakes with minus double digit wind chills again late friday
night into saturday morning. the axis of coldest air should reside
just southeast of lower michigan, therefore cold headlines are not
anticipated. llj winds increase, out of the northeast, on saturday
with lake effect snow potential off the huron basin for the thumb,
and possibly further inland. higher likelihood for flow-parallel
bands during the daylight hours saturday. the lake-modified air
should also help moderate temperatures, slightly, with highs in the
mid-upper teens. height rises arrive early next week, although
southern lower will reside invof the baroclinic zone.

marine...

the great lakes remain under broad upper troughing allowing arctic
air to hold across the waters. winds hold from the northwest at 10-
20kts with gusts up to 25kts through friday. trough influence keeps
lake effect snow showers active though directed at the canadian
waters and southern ontario. some areas of freezing spray are
possible through this timeframe in the ice-free waters however lack
of strong winds prevent any widespread heavy freezing spray from
developing. slowly moderating airmass and slightly lighter winds
continue to look to be in store for the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.