Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
972
fxus61 kcle 251832
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
232 pm edt sat jul 25 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast. there is still potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms sunday and especially monday,
but confidence in timing and placement of storms remains low.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across
the area sunday through wednesday. storms may occasionally be
strong to severe sunday through monday night with the highest
confidence on monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry weather will continue through at least early sunday before
an unsettled weather pattern unfolds sunday through monday
night.

a ridge will be in place to the west of the local area through
monday with a trough setting up across the northeastern conus.
a series of disturbances will crest the ridge sunday through
monday night, resulting in multiple chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the start of the week. there`s still quite
a bit of uncertainty in the timing/placement of thunderstorms
and the resulting severe weather threat across the local area.
thunderstorm chances and the trajectories of any mcs activity
will rely on mesoscale features that have yet to be resolved.

some cams suggest that scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms
could develop southeast of lake erie sunday afternoon. there may be
an isolated severe weather threat during that time given the
increasing moisture and instability across the area, but the
threat is pretty isolated at this point. meanwhile, an mcs will
follow an instability gradient and push south/southeast from
the upper midwest during peak heating before either clipping or
missing the local area just to the west sunday evening or
overnight. will need to continue to monitor cams and adjust the
forecast as needed; as of now confidence in severe weather
potential sunday is low and the threat is conditional. there is
a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across most
local ohio zones.

confidence in thunderstorms is higher for monday since the ridge
will be shifting east into a more favorable position for
convection making it into the area. there may be periodic
showers/thunderstorms throughout the day monday, although
thunderstorm chances will rely on how sunday night/early monday
morning pans out. another mcs will likely push southeast or
develop along remnant boundaries across the region at some point
late in the day monday into monday night. deep layer shear will
be higher on monday thanks to better upper level support as a
cold front approaches so there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
of severe weather across the entire area monday/monday night.
damaging wind gusts will most likely be the main threat. will
continue to keep an eye on model trends and update the
forecast/messaging as confidence in timing and coverage
increases.

shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into tuesday with lake-
enhanced rain showers/thunderstorms possibly continuing across
ne oh/nw pa into wednesday due to persistent troughing overhead.
dry weather will return by early thursday as high pressure
briefly builds in from the west.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
vfr will prevail through the taf cycle, but periodic high and
mid-level clouds will stream into the region tonight and sunday
morning as a warm front slowly moves eastward toward the region.
this warm front is associated with an expanding mid/upper ridge
centered over the central and southern plains and will serve as
a focus for clusters of convection to track along as they dive
southeastward along the eastern periphery of the thermal ridge
and associated instability/theta e gradient. this convection
will remain west of all terminals through early sunday afternoon
but will need to be watched after the taf period as the gradient
attempts to nudge slightly farther eastward.

w to nw winds of 5-10 knots this afternoon will become light
southerly tonight then w at 5-10 knots again by late sunday
morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through monday with
generally light winds. the exception will be any thunderstorms
that can slide across the lake sunday evening and especially
sunday night and monday as a very active warm frontal boundary
pushes slightly farther east into the area ahead of a low
pressure system and strong cold front expected to cross monday
night. any thunderstorms could contain severe winds.

stronger synoptic winds will develop behind the cold front
tuesday. w winds will increase to 15-20 knots monday night,
turning nnw at 15-25 knots tuesday and tuesday night before nnw
winds gradually decrease wednesday and wednesday night.
however, winds may remain sub 20 knots through wednesday
evening. small craft advisories and beach hazard statements for
rip currents will be needed tuesday and possibly through
wednesday evening. winds will become light northerly by
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
783
fxus63 kiwx 251822
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
222 pm edt sat jul 25 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by sunday and
monday.

- severe storms possible both sunday night and again monday
night. damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

-not as hot by midweek and mainly dry.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 222 pm edt sat jul 25 2026

another pleasant afternoon on the fringe of northeast us high
pressure. stratus as seeped into our area from earlier convection
elsewhere in the midwest which he limited temperatures toward
monticello and logansport. highs well into the 80s on sunday (cloud
debris permitting) as upper-level heights rise as a strong ridge to
our west noses in.

status quo once more for severe weather concerns sunday night and
monday. 12z cam runs remain split on any convection sunday night,
with the hrrr and fv3 perhaps appearing as outliers with robust
convection within our forecast area. forecast soundings continue to
depict an environment ripe for convection awaiting an ample trigger.
cape will be plentiful, even during the overnight hours at greater
than 1,500 j/kg, 0-6km shear in excess of 40 knots, and mid-level
lapse rates near 8c/km. the possibility of decaying convection over
far northeast iowa sunday morning will need to be monitored as any
outflow or lingering mcv could serve as a forcing mechanism for our
local area sunday night. as mentioned in the preceding afd, the
thunderstorm risk is confined to the overnight hours consisting
primarily of damaging wind gusts. confidence in severe storms
occurring sunday night is still low given a general absence of
convection in most cams, but cannot completely wave the "all clear"
flag given the anticipated mesoscale nuances to come sunday.

similarly, no significant changes in thinking to monday night, but
perhaps a better concensus that this round is the one to watch for
our area now that the four corners ridge is farther east. again, the
devil is in the mesoscale details that remain to be seen. high
pressure descends from central canada later tuesday and through
wednesday offering a break from hot and stormy conditions. the
western us ridge remains in place, but troughing over the great
lakes keeps temperatures seasonable with intermittent chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1130 am edt sat jul 25 2026

low level moisture plume just west of the terminals will slowly
advect eastward tonight given light westerly flow. high degree
of spread in numerical guidance concerning exact ceiling heights
and fog potential. held with conservative mvfr forecast for now
but ifr is not entirely out of the question. clearing expected
by sunday afternoon with any thunderstorm potential well after
this forecast window.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
314
fxus63 kdtx 251925
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
325 pm edt sat jul 25 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity build back into the region sunday-monday with
highs around 90 degrees and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

- isolated strong to severe thunderstorms sunday evening/night, with
a more organized severe weather threat arriving late monday.
damaging winds are the primary hazard both days.

&&

.discussion...

influence of high pressure is waning this afternoon as amplifying
central conus ridging builds across the midwest. this mid-upper
pattern shift allows a ridge running wave train to drop into the
central great lakes through the remainder of the weekend and monday
offering multiple chances for storms locally.

expansive coverage of stratus crossing lake michigan demarcates the
lead edge of the first of these shortwaves which is set to cross se
mi this evening. dry resident airmass in place (12z kdtx raob showed
0.72" of pw) precludes any rain chances with the main consequence
instead being the initiation of moisture advection into southern
lower mi through tonight. lower level moisture is established by
sunday morning tied to the arrival a second wave offering the
chances for scattered showers and isolated thunder first over the
saginaw valley. chances then shift south of the course of the
morning as the shortwave and the left exit region of an upper
midwestern jet streak shift southeast. some afternoon-evening
redevelopment remains possible from peak heating though better
convective signal comes late evening-sunday night when northern mi
convection drops south into/near the area. any storms that do manage
to develop in the evening stand the best shot at becoming strong to
severe with ~1000j/kg of mlcape still available and shear 35-40kts.
while instability partially wanes by time of any northern mi
convection reaches the area, shear holds unchanged maintaining
organization and isolated severe potential. primary hazards would be
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall with hail being a
lesser secondary threat. all of se mi is under a marginal risk from
spc.

model signal early monday still muddled with mid-range solutions
highly varied in the degree of lingering morning showers/storms
which affects the magnitude of available instability late day. that
said, confidence is still higher, relative to prior waves, for
monday evening/night in organized severe potential as a mid-level
trough digs into the northern great lakes. in addition to the
stronger synoptic kinematics, attendant surface cold front dropping
through the state also provides more robust forcing mechanism
resulting in good model agreement for mcs development. its exact
placement/track however is the main point of uncertainty with a wide
range of outcomes currently advertised in the model suite ranging
from west mi to eastern lake huron. given the convective mode,
severe wind gusts are the primary hazard with a low but non-zero
chance for a qlcs tornado. all of se mi remains under a day 3 slight
risk from spc.

low pressure peels east of the region by tuesday leaving cooler,
drier airmass in its place as 850mb temps fall to lower teens c with
sub 60f dewpoints. resultant midweek highs hold slightly below
average in the lower 80s including some upper 70s possible
wednesday. surface high pressure sinking out of northern ontario
promotes clearer skies supporting another period of pleasant
weather.

&&

.marine...

light southerly winds draw warmer air and greater instability into
the central great lakes leading to increasing thunderstorm activity
on sunday, including the chance for a strong to severe storm sunday
night. the primary low pressure system then tracks across the
northern great lakes during monday. thunderstorm activity continues
to increase coverage and intensity with this system, especially
along the trailing cold front that brings a chance of strong to
severe thunderstorms as it moves through the region. outside of
storms, wind and waves are low until the northerly wind shift post
front late monday night into tuesday when speeds likely reach 25 to
30 knots over southern lake huron. if the low deepens enough over
the eastern great lakes tuesday evening, a short period of gales
could even come into play. winds slowly diminish on wednesday as
large area of high pressure over the western great lakes slowly
advances east, arriving on thursday. this will assure dry conditions
for those days.

&&

.hydrology...

several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible sunday into
early next week. an increasingly humid and unstable airmass will
lead to rainfall rates over an inch per hour in some thunderstorms.
recent dry weather and low soil saturation will help mitigate
widespread flooding concerns, although localized flash flooding of
low-lying, urban, and other flood-prone areas remains possible if
thunderstorms repeatedly impact the same locations.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 256 pm edt sat jul 25 2026

aviation...

low impact weather prevails today, even as high pressure influence
breaks down and gives way to upstream low pressure. winds remain
rather light for the rest of today, organizing out of the west-
southwest. standard diurnal cumulus response with sct-bkn coverage
above 5 kft agl (vfr), prior to the loss of daytime heating this
evening. low clouds dissipate early tonight as mid-level clouds try
to fill-in aloft, atop light surface flow settling out of the west.
forecast uncertainty increases sunday as chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be on the rise. confidence in coverage and timing
remain low, therefore tempos and prob30s were not included this
cycle.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are possible sunday afternoon
and evening. confidence in coverage and timing remain low.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunder sunday afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......sf
hydrology....mv
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.