Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
194
fxus61 kcle 240715
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
315 am edt sat oct 24 2026

.what has changed...
dense fog has taken hold in northwest ohio and a dense fog
advisory has been issued until 10 am. any frost and freeze
concerns are becoming more limited this morning and sunday
morning to just areas that are no longer in the growing season
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry, seasonable weather will continue through the first half
of next week. dense fog will impact northwest ohio this morning.
frost and freeze chances the next two mornings will be limited
to northeast ohio and northwest pa, where the growing season has
ended.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure to the east of the area will allow for dry weather
to continue through sunday. while a weak, dry cold front will
enter on monday, another high pressure system will return on
tuesday, keeping the pattern dry and seasonable. this morning,
the main concern will be the trapped near surface moisture in
northwest ohio, which has turned into dense fog. a dense fog
advisory is in effect until 10 am. in northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania, temperatures will fall into the upper
20s to mid 30s this morning and sunday morning, allowing for a
frost/freeze setup. however, most of these counties are no
longer in the growing season and will not have headlines issued.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
patchy dense fog and low stratus have developed across
northwest ohio terminals early today and will continue to impact
ktol and kfdy through this morning. some sct low stratus may
briefly impact kmfd and kcak. otherwise, anticipate for vfr to
continue across all terminals under high pressure. calm winds
through this morning will become southeast 5-8 knots this
morning.

outlook...patchy fog possible again early sunday morning.
otherwise primarily vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
high pressure east of lake erie today will allow for easterly
winds up to 10 kts develop over the lake. as high pressure
shifts south on sunday, winds will become offshore around 10
kts. a weak cold front will cross the lake for monday, allowing
for west winds around 10 kts. high pressure will enter behind
this front starting on monday night and northeast flow will be
quick to return. winds on monday night into tuesday may reach 15
kts. northeast winds will diminish into wednesday as high
pressure moves nearby.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for ohz003-
006>008-017-018-027.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
020
fxus63 kiwx 240640
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
240 am edt sat oct 24 2026

.key messages...

- dense fog will impacts portions of the area through late
morning. an advisory is in effect.

- otherwise, pleasant weather persists through the upcoming week
with highs around 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 240 am edt sat oct 24 2026

another day with fog as the only sensible weather concern. latest
satellite and surface obs show dense fog rapidly expanding across
our eastern cwa thanks to another night of light easterly flow off
lake erie and prime radiational cooling. high clouds that were in
place earlier thanks to upstream trough have now largely dissipated
for most of the area and see no reason why fog won`t continue to
expand and persist through the late morning as suggested by plethora
of latest guidance. only question is how far west and south it will
build. with light e to even ese flow, confidence is not high for our
southwest zones. latest satellite shows a rapid expansion to the nw
but very little southward expansion. issued a dense fog advisory but
left off the far west and southern counties for now. will continue
to monitor obs and expand as necessary. surface winds finally veer
to the south tonight and more high clouds should limit fog potential
(save perhaps for our extreme ne areas where lake erie could still
be a factor).

highs today a near carbon copy from yesterday given no thermal
advection. highs do creep up a few degrees sun and mon as very light
southerly flow/minor waa takes shape. a weak backdoor front then
brings a brief return to cool easterly flow for tue but waa
increases again for wed and thu as a decaying cold front approaches
the region. this front looks to stall and wash out just to our nw
with just some very low chances for light rain near lake mi thu into
fri. better rain chances arrive over the weekend but there is still
a high degree of spread regarding exact timing and amounts.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 130 am edt sat oct 24 2026

a stagnant weather pattern is allowing for a repeat fog
potential setup through early this morning. satellite imagery
and sfc observations indicate an expanding area of stratus and
dense fog across northwest ohio, with a westward movement of 15
to 20 mph. this fog has been favored in a pattern with good
radiational cooling and a weak easterly flow regime from the
eastern great lakes. based on satellite and observational
trends, confidence continues to increase in dense fog potential
at kfwa from roughly 0730z to possibly mid morning. the greatest
uncertainty deals with westward extent of dense fog with some
higher res guidance suggesting pockets of dense fog as far west
as ksbn. given uncertainty, did limit mention to mvfr vsbys
trend by 10z at ksbn with tempo ifr vsbys. improvement this
morning will likely be slow at kfwa given very poor mixing
continuing. otherwise, quiet aviation weather today as an upper
ridge axis finally begins to shift eastward a bit, allowing for
eventual veering of low level flow to the south late this
period. the combination of this southerly flow and increased
high clouds tonight should limit coverage of the significant fog
for saturday night/early sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for inz005>009-
017-018-024>027-116-216.
oh...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz079>081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
721
fxus63 kdtx 240738
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
338 am edt sat oct 24 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for dense fog development sunday and monday
mornings. any patchy/dense fog is expected to dissipate by around 10
am each morning.

- high temperatures increase to around 70 on sunday before a dry
cold front drops us back into the upper 50s to low 60s monday and
tuesday.

- dry conditions through the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

fog again developed overnight but not as widespread as last night
due to the southeasterly winds keeping the bulk of the lake huron
moisture out of the picture. better moisture advection off lake erie
tonight still resulted in dense fog downwind of the lake. additional
fog did develop across parts of the thumb but more of the
radiational variety as temps fell into the mid 30s which was enough
with the elevated dewpoints from residual lake moisture. so a dense
fog advisory is in effect again this morning for two areas, the
thumb and near the ohio border. fog should start mixing out around
12-14z again like the past two days.

today will once again feature high pressure at the surface, which is
now centered over new england. meanwhile, a mid level ridge axis
will pass over the area today pulling the thermal ridge closer to
the area helping to increase highs a degree or two over yesterday,
which will carry into sunday where highs may then reach 70 across
much of the area. persistence forecasting with the high still
holding on over the region this time of year suggests we could deal
with another night of fog but conditions are not as favorable with
warmer temps overnight and some high cloud starting to stream in.

longwave pattern then starts to break down to end the weekend with
base of the west coast trough cutting off and then lifting northeast
through the plains through the start of the new week. this occurs
while a strong upper low tracks east across canada helping to
flatten the ridge across the great lakes. a cold front drops through
the state monday which will bring cooler temps back briefly mid week
but a new wave coming ashore the pacific nw looks to then reinforce
the west coast trough and in turn bulge the central conus ridge back
into the area bringing the warm air back. the overall pattern does
remain flatter though with several mid level waves rippling through
it after mid week which will bring some rain chances back to the
area.

&&

.marine...

controlling high pressure centers over new england today offering
light southerly winds. speeds gradually tick upwards over the
weekend as the surface ridge maintains control from the east and the
surface pressure gradient constricts. an approaching cold front
could briefly stall out over the straits on sunday, which would
conclude a prolonged streak of dry weather. confidence remains low
for rainfall with this boundary, before it weakens and traverses the
rest of the basin sunday night into monday. a post-frontal northerly
wind shift ensues, followed by a few additional opportunities for
some stray showers next week. several waves of low pressure are
expected to track northeast from the plains through the upper
midwest monday through wednesday. winds and waves should remain
below headline criteria through this period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1057 pm edt fri oct 23 2026

aviation...

high pressure centered to the east will continue to mark conditions
this taf period. attention remains on potential for some degree of
fog and/or low stratus to develop as low level moisture flux occurs
with prevailing low level easterly flow off the upstream lakes. the
overall environment not nearly as favorable as noted last night,
with the contribution from lake huron more limited. with that,
expectation for a response off lake erie will maintain greater
potential across portions of the detroit airspace. forecast will
continue to offer a window for lifr conditions in fog and low
stratus here. to the north, better setup for mbs given closer
proximity to saginaw bay, while some recent model guidance suggests
lower likelihood at ptk/fnt. any lower restriction will
progressively vacate through late morning, leaving another day of
mostly clear skies with light winds saturday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz049-054-055-
062-063-075-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.