Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
701 pm edt sun mar 22 2026

.what has changed...
the likelihood of afternoon convection is decreasing due to
widespread cloud cover and lack of instability. as of now, it
appears that the best chance of severe weather will occur in the
southern part of the local area this evening, although it`s
possible that the majority of the strong to severe storms remain
to the south/southeast of the local area.

&&

.key messages...
1.) isolated to scattered strong to severe storms possible
primarily in the southern portion of the forecast area this
evening.

2.) variable temperatures expected for most of the week with
periodic precipitation chances occurring tonight and mid to late
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will continue to move southeast across the local
area this afternoon. showers are likely along the cold front
this afternoon, although widespread cloud cover, dry air, and
lack of instability will likely hinder any thunderstorm
development. the best chance of storms will likely be along the
southeastern border or to the southeast of the local area, but
thunderstorms will likely hold off until later this evening.

confidence in convection is slightly higher for this evening,
although once again there`s still uncertainty in where storms
will initiate. showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
behind the cold front at around 8 pm this evening before
exiting to the southeast by midnight, however mid-level dry air
may once again inhibit convection development. there`s also a
chance that storms develop near the southeastern border of the
cwa and strengthen after exiting the cwa. the best instability
will likely be in the southern half of the local area, primarily
from u.s. route 30 south. there will be a sharp cutoff in shear
values close to the lakeshore, however 0-6km shear values of
30-40+ knots support storm mode of a more organized line or
supercells. at this point, instability will be elevated and
lapse rates are relatively high so large hail will be the
primary hazard, although surrounding upper air soundings suggest
that dry low-level air could produce a risk of
downbursts/damaging wind gusts. will need to keep a close eye on
mesoanalysis/satellite data over the next several hours and
will make adjustments to the forecast as needed. either way,
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather along
and south of a line from roughly marion to warren, oh with a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) north from roughly findlay, oh to
meadville, pa (including cleveland). the best potential for
severe weather will be in the enhanced risk area to the
southeast of the forecast area.

key message 2...
cold air advection and lingering troughing over the lower great
lakes will result in low-end chances of light snow showers
across ne oh and nw pa late tonight through monday afternoon,
although accumulations beyond a dusting on grassy/elevated
surfaces are not expected. from there, dry weather is favored
monday night through early wednesday evening as high pressure
builds over the region. periodic showers are likely as the next
system approaches and crosses the region late wednesday through
thursday evening. a few thunderstorms are possible with cold
front passage on thursday or thursday night, but still quite a
bit of uncertainty with frontal passage timing and the
resulting precipitation chances. dry weather is favored for the
weekend.

temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit during the week with the
coldest high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s
anticipated monday/friday and the warmest highs in the 60s and
lower 70s anticipated on thursday.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
the main aviation concern and expectations for this 00z taf
update will be for variable flight categories this evening with
a trend downward from vfr to low end mvfr/ifr. scattered showers
will move in this evening. some thunderstorms are possible and
mentioned in the tafs at fdy, mfd, cak, and yng through 03z or
04z. ceilings will gradually lower this evening into the low end
mvfr or ifr. the best potential for ifr will be at cak, yng,
eri, cle, and mfd. ceilings will start to lift into mvfr monday
morning into the afternoon. some ceilings will scattered out
over nwoh by late in the taf period. winds will be northerly 10
to 15 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots during the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr conditions possible wednesday into thursday
with scattered rain showers.

&&

.marine...
a cold front continues to slowly drift south across the are this
afternoon, allowing winds across lake erie to become northerly
at 10 to 20 knots. the strong winds remain isolated to the
western basin right now. as the cold front moves further south,
winds will gain more of a northwesterly component with winds up
to 20 knots spreading east across the central basin. this
gustier onshore flow will result in waves building to 3-5 feet
across the central basin late tonight into early monday morning.
as a result, a brief small craft advisory has been issued to
highlight this hazard.

as the parent low moves off the mid-atlantic coast on monday,
northwest winds will weaken to 10-15 knots. high pressure builds
over the region tuesday, shifting winds once again to be from
the south-southwest at 5-10 knots which will persist through
much of wednesday. another low pressure system is forecast to
move east through the region thursday into friday, increasing
winds to 15 to 20 knots once again. this period will need to be
monitored for any additional marine headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt monday for lez144>146.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
950 pm edt sun mar 22 2026

.key messages...

- highs drop into the 40s on monday but slowly recover back to
the 70s by thursday.

- after today, the next chance of rain is not until thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt sun mar 22 2026

surface cold front currently draped generally along the us-24
corridor and will continue to slowly push south through the evening.
not much has changed regarding the thunderstorm potential this
evening. strong inversion around 800-750mb is effectively capping
any convection with even cu being highly limited. a secondary
shortwave will approach the region this evening and associated
height falls/caa will eventually weaken and saturate this inversion
with some residual mucape given steep midlevel lapse rates.
tightening thermal gradient/fgen within and just below this unstable
layer will supporting expanding showers after 21z and perhaps a few
storms developing south of us-24 around 00z. however, sfc-850mb caa
will already be well underway across even our far se by this point
and a very stable profile below 850mb will significantly limit any
potential damaging winds or tornadoes. still can`t rule out some
small hail but mucape values are 500-1000 j/kg at best so even that
should be limited. better chances exist just outside our cwa. any
storms that do develop in our area will quickly exit and expect dry
conditions everywhere by 03-04z. lows tonight drop to around 30f in
strong caa with highs tomorrow holding in the 40s (even some
upper 30s near the lake).

temps slowly recover tue-thu as canadian surface high drifts across
the region and return flow gradually ramps up on the backside. a
very similar system is then expected on thu with a brief period of
strong waa pushing highs into the 70s followed by a quick drop back
to march reality for friday. rain and thunderstorms likely at some
point with the best chances probably along the cold front late thu
evening. still a lot of details to work out regarding exact precip
timing and amounts though. the severe threat currently appears
limited due to poor instability profiles but that could change as
details are narrowed down in the coming days. return to dry/quiet
weather anticipated for next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 931 pm edt sun mar 22 2026

the cold front has moved well south - down to the ohio river.
however, showers and thunderstorms have former further north -
south of fwa where thunder was still being heard from the
distance. these storm will continue to move south and will move
away from the terminals. more light post-frontal showers were
over northern indiana. boundary level temperatures should be
cold enough for a rain/snow mix at sbn per bufkit data, so have
included this mix at the terminal. otherwise, mvfr clouds should
scatter out late tonight or early tuesday with vfr conditions
following.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm edt sun mar 22 2026

.key messages...

- areas of light rain today.

- colder and dry tonight and monday.

&&

.aviation...

se mi is now well to the north of the very active ohio valley
frontal zone that has left gusty north wind and colder air inbound
over the great lakes tonight. late evening satellite imagery shows
the colder air supporting extensive coverage of mvfr clouds from se
mi well north into northern ontario which hold through the morning.
there is also a chance for brief cloud breaks as ne wind backs
toward the nw and as gusts settle below 20 knots at times during the
late night. daytime instability then reinforces higher mvfr coverage
with a stray snow shower by afternoon. incoming 00z model soundings
show the diurnal component enhanced by steep boundary layer lapse
rate and convective depth up around 7500 ft. this gradually leads to
a cloud boost up to vfr below 5000 ft mid to late afternoon until
around sunset. midwest high pressure moves over lower mi to promote
a clearing trend monday night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight and monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 pm edt sun mar 22 2026

discussion...

the initial cold front has pushed south of the state line today but
elevated portions of the front continue to flare up resulting in a
band of scattered showers that will drift south through the
remainder of the day. part of the mid level fgen is spurred from the
secondary cold front dropping through the state today while
additional forcing comes from a mid level wave rippling along the
front just to our south. model soundings no longer show the strong
lapse rates through the mid levels of the column over parts of
southern mi this afternoon so the risk of any elevated thunderstorms
will be shifted southward closer to the border. when the two main
850mb fgen bands phase near toledo there could be a brief window for
some thunder.

the mid/upper level trough centers over the region tonight while
high pressure starts building in at the surface. 850mb temps fall to
-5 to -10c by monday morning but low stratus looks to get locked in
for the night reducing the potential for temps to bottom out. still
expecting lows into the mid to upper 20s tonight. northerly flow and
the thermal trough will keep temps down on monday as well, even as
clouds try to scatter out during the day allowing some sun late.
highs will likely hold in the mid to upper 30s for most locations
with some lower 40s near the ohio border. when you add in the
northwesterly winds gusting into the teens, we`ll get wind chills
below 30 for most locations through the daytime hours.

another cold front tries to drop through the state on tuesday but
looks to stall and get washed out over northern lower as it runs up
against the high now drifting toward the mid atlantic coast. strong
ridging over the southern conus will help steadily build heights
over the region leading to mid week warm up with temps reaching into
the 60s across most of the area on thursday. low pressure developing
over the central plains will introduce low pops late wednesday as
energy starts exiting the low and tracking along a developing warm
front near southern mi. better chances come thursday night into
friday as the next upper level trough pushes through southern canada
and pulls the low across the region. the cold front will bring
another notable drop in temps for the end of the week.

marine...

cold front has pushed south of the area late this afternoon ushering
in north to north-northeast flow in its wake. given the fetch, the
southern half of lake huron will see the strongest wind gusts (20-
25kts) this evening into early monday with the rest of the region
holding closer to the 15-20kt range. onshore flow brings higher wave
action into the thumb nearshore waters warranting small craft
advisories through the first half of the day monday. strong high
pressure builds in behind the front by monday afternoon allowing
winds to lighten. high is quick to depart tuesday morning as a cold
front tied to northern ontario low pressure glances lake huron
daytime tuesday. the central great lakes reside along the fringe of
strong upper jet over the upper midwest/superior through midweek
offering periodic rain or rain-snow showers and generally modest
winds as low pressure systems pass just to our north.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt monday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.