Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
975
fxus61 kcle 040457
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1157 pm est tue feb 3 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast package. the main
concern continues to be the potential for a widespread light to
moderate accumulating snow across the region on friday, followed by
another blast of arctic air this weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) confidence remains medium to medium-high on a widespread light to
moderate accumulating snow on friday, though uncertainty remains on
the placement of the higher-end snow amounts. minor travel
impacts are expected.

2) sub-zero wind chills will return across the region this weekend,
with the coldest values expected friday night into saturday morning.

3) light snow will continue into this evening, particularly across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania, as a cold front moves
south through the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a potent clipper system will move southeast through the great lakes
on friday, sweeping an arctic cold front across the region friday
night into saturday. this system will also lift a warm front
northeast into the area friday afternoon, and will be one feature to
watch for any localized higher snowfall amounts, particularly
immediately along or ahead of the front. areas behind the front may
briefly warm near or even slightly above freezing in the afternoon,
before temperatures plummet area-wide to the single digits or even
sub-zero friday night - more on that in key message #2.

confidence remains medium to medium-high (50 to 70%) for a 2 to 4-
inch snowfall across much of the area east of the i-75 corridor on
friday, with the heaviest snow expected to fall friday morning into
the early afternoon. the higher-end of totals will most likely be
found across the snowbelt where some lake-enhancement is possible
behind the arctic front friday evening and overnight.

key message 2...

an arctic cold front will follow friday`s clipper system, with
temperatures quickly dropping into the single digits to even sub-
zero friday night into saturday morning. a combination of cold
temperatures and gusty winds behind the front will likely result in
dangerously-cold wind chills of -15 to -24 degrees f into saturday
morning. confidence remains rather high for this occurrence, 60 to
90%, particularly across northeast ohio into northwest pennsylvania.

for the rest of the weekend, sub-zero wind chills of generally -5 to
-10 degrees f are expected to persist in the overnight and early
morning hours into monday morning.

key message 3...

satellite and radar signatures continue to suggest weak lake-
enhancement across the snowbelt as boundary-layer flow remains
westerly ahead of an approaching cold front. the latest observations
indicate the cold front is quickly moving southeast across eastern
michigan and ontario. anticipate a brief up-tick in snow showers
across the region later this afternoon and evening along the front,
though accumulations should be relatively light, generally an inch
or less. high pressure building from the west on wednesday should
allow any remaining snow showers to diminish, albeit periodic lake
effect clouds may persist.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
a stratus deck with ceilings in the 1,500-3,500 ft range are
expected to continue through pretty much the entire taf period.
satellite observations reveal much more expansive cloud cover
across the great lakes compared to what most model guidance are
initializing with, so went quite a bit more pessimistic compared
to models. there could be some breaks here or there, or
improvements to ceilings, but overall, the expectation is for
most of the forecast to be mvfr ceilings.

outlook...periods of non-vfr expected in low-level clouds and/or
snow showers through thursday. non-vfr likely thursday night
into friday evening as a clipper brings snow areawide. northwest
wind gusts of 30-35 knots will be possible friday evening.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered with the latest analysis
indicating 95 percent coverage. this coverage along with the
thickness of the ice sheet is expected to continue to expand as
below average temperatures linger through this weekend.

a cold front will push east this evening with winds becoming
north-northwesterly at 5-10 knots tonight. high pressure will
build over the area tonight, maintaining these winds into
thursday. on friday, a warm front will lift north across lake
erie, shifting winds to become southwesterly at 10-15 knots. a
strong cold front will push east lake friday, shifting winds to
northwesterly and increasing them to 20 to 30 knots into
saturday. high pressure returns this weekend and winds will
weaken to 10-15 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
346
fxus63 kiwx 032356
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
656 pm est tue feb 3 2026

.key messages...

- cold tonight with low temperatures expected in the single digits
above zero for many locations.

- low chances of light snow (20-30%) for thursday, with greatest
chances (50-70%) late thursday night into friday.

- temperatures moderate by friday, but colder conditions return for
weekend.

- a more significant moderating temperature trend expected next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 pm est tue feb 3 2026

an upper level short wave continues to sink southeast across west
central illinois this afternoon. downstream stronger low/mid level
frontogenesis forcing has slipped southeast of the local area and
should no longer pose a chance for any additional snow accumulation
this afternoon/evening. otherwise tonight, a weak sfc trough/low
level cold front will drop southeast across the eastern great lakes
with some renewed low level caa/dry air advection. this should allow
for partly cloudy to clear skies developing tonight, and this
combination of at least partial clearing, cold advection, and good
decoupling should promote much colder temperatures tonight with
single digit lows. some concern that favored cold spots could really
crash this evening, but age of snowpack could limit these extremes.
if temps do drop off more than forecast, winds should be on the
light side, so minimum wind chills should be in check tonight around
zero. some weak lake response is expected tonight given the cold
advection, but would expect this to manifest more as mid-lake band
given anticipated development of land breeze, weakening flow, and
positioning of lake aggregate trough.

broad low level thermal troughing will remain anchored from the mid
ms valley to the eastern great lakes on wednesday as an expansive
low level anticyclone settles into the region. while magnitude of
low level thermal progs are not nearly as cold as post-frontal
situations of past few weeks, overall poor mixing in this setup
should limit highs to the 20 to 25 degree range. the next large
scale upper trough will shift across the western great lakes late in
the day wednesday, but moisture profiles will be scant and very
shallow. approach and passage of this trough could shift any weak
mid lake convergent band back eastward across sw lower mi/nw indiana
but given such limited moisture depths/shallow inversion heights,
this would likely manifest as just some light snow showers or
flurries.

an amplified longwave pattern persists into thursday with a 582 dm
upper ridge across western conus and several small scale
perturbations carving out negative upper height anomaly across se
canada. guidance continues trend of depicting two separate nw flow
waves topping the ridge and diving southeast into the region, one
for thursday morning, and the second for late thursday night into
early friday. the amplitude of this pattern and effects from the
aforementioned broad low level anticyclone will allow for limited
low/mid level moisture in this pattern. with the first wave early
thursday, some mass convergence at nose of a westerly low level jet
and strengthening low level waa could allow some prospects of light
precip to reach as far south as us 6 corridor, but confidence in
precip is low at this time. better precip chances still look to
be in the later thursday night/friday period as a 150 knot
upper speed max dives southeast allowing better push of arctic
air into the eastern great lakes. stronger low level convergence
and brief period of strong dpva with the upper vorticity should
allow snow to spread across much of lower mi/northeast
in/northwest oh. deep moisture profiles with better rh in dgz
still look to be of limited duration (2-4 hours), but a quick
inch or two of accumulation is possible early friday. this setup
could yield some flags for snow squall potential, but the very
limited moisture setup might suggest that better rh in dgz is
lost by the time steeper low level lapse rates and stronger wind
gusts develop. if some snow squall potential materializes, this
may be maximized across the eastern great lakes.

below normal temps build back in behind this system friday night
into saturday, with weak warming trend through the weekend as mean
ridge axis slowly shifts eastward. the wildcard for the weekend will
be potential of any additional nw flow waves while the upper ridge
axis is far enough west of the area. this could support additional
light snow chance at some point later saturday/early sunday given
expected strong baroclinicity with any nw flow wave, but
confidence is on the very low side given low predictability of
these low amplitude progressive waves. a sharper warming trend
still looks to be in store for next week as medium range
guidance consensus favors longwave troughing across the western
conus by middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 649 pm est tue feb 3 2026

vfr to mvfr conditions at the terminals this period. as previous
discussion alluded to, the model guidance continues to show the
clearing from dry air to the north infiltrating both terminals.
there is an area of clearing on satellite between kbiv and kdtw,
but behind that is another mvfr deck of ceilings between
2500-3500 feet. over northern in/il/oh ceilings are still socked
in around 2500-3000 ft, with a couple locations near toledo at
3500 ft. flow should remain north-northeast, which would keep
lower clouds closer to the lake locked in longer before the more
northeasterly flow develops. i`m skeptical clouds will clear out
for a long period given the ceilings behind the clearing on
satellite-so opted to keep at least tempos of mvfr until later
in the period.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
844
fxus63 kdtx 040507
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1207 am est wed feb 4 2026

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures persist through most of the week.

- the next window for accumulating snow arrives thursday night
through friday.

- arctic air returns this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

late evening observations indicate considerable coverage of mvfr
ceiling still over lower mi leading up to midnight. the great lakes
aggregate is the primary contributor to the cloud supply which is
locked into the boundary layer as weak midwest high pressure builds
into the region. nw surface wind and northerly cloud layer wind
occur ahead of this weak high pressure extension which also promotes
larger breaks of clear sky at times, especially toward the mbs area
where a downslope wind component is most pronounced. cloud layer
wind remains from the n-nw during the day which keeps lake michigan
involved in cloud development while the presence of surface high
pressure adds some uncertainty on the eastward extent of ceiling
coverage. there is potential for larger breaks to occur and then
fill in with a daytime "heating" component and an eventual
improvement of ceiling into the lower range of vfr into wednesday
evening.

for dtw... ceiling near the vfr/mvfr threshold is expected to hold
during the late night and morning, and then build higher into vfr
with some breaks developing in the afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight and in the
morning, moderate wednesday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 pm est tue feb 3 2026

discussion...

the passage of the early day arctic cold front will result in a
quieter pattern in terms of precipitation as drier air fills in
across the area. the last of the light snow showers come to an end
this afternoon as thinning of the cloud field with the northwesterly
flow persists. flurries may hang on a bit longer into the early
evening as last of the moisture is squeezed out of the low levels.
dewpoints have already fallen into the single digits behind the
front at the surface while subsidence from high pressure building
into the area will help dry out the air above. the clearing of the
skies with the cold pool sliding overhead (-13c at 850mb) with the
healthy snow pack across the area will all lead to another night of
effective cooling with lows forecast to drop into the low single
digits above zero. with winds on the lighter side, wind chill values
will be limited to between -5 to 5f.

little relief in temperatures on wednesday as the high centered to
our west keeps a cool northerly flow over southern mi. a shortwave
ridge aloft will only act to neutralize any larger scale height
falls due to the broader long wave trough dropping over the region.
highs will remain below normal around 20f with lows falling into the
mid-upper single digits.

next chance of snow comes thursday into friday as the next shortwave
clipper races through the great lakes on the nose of a 150 knot jet
max. compact mid level vort max will barrel into the middle of the
trough as the parent mid level low will be over far northern
ontario. precip chances start late in the day thursday as weak
isentropic ascent arrives ahead of the developing warm front with
southwesterly flow improving moisture quality. top down saturation
may result in some flurries later in the day with best chances
across our northern counties. chances for accumulating snow come
overnight into friday mainly from 06-18z as first the mid level wave
and upper level forcing arrives, followed by the cold front friday
morning. best chances and rates are more in the 09-15z range tied
to the low level circulation developing along the frontal boundary.
current probabilistic guidance centers around 0.1 inch of qpf and
broad area of 1 to 2 inches of snow and a potential band of around 3
inches tied closer to the low center wherever it tracks. with the
strength of the wave and proximity to the baroclinic zone, models
are showing temps on friday increasing to around 32f in the warm
sector before the cold front sweeps through. this would be the first
time in a few weeks some locations saw temps at or above freezing.
dtw hit 33 on jan 21st with fnt and mbs hitting 33 on jan 17th.

yet another round of arctic air is expected this weekend with 850mb
temps falling back to around -20c locally with -30c just east of
lake huron. so expect another round of lows down to around zero
friday night with wind chills below zero. highs will only rise into
the teens saturday and 20s on sunday.

marine...

moderate northwesterly winds and colder air will continue as the
clipper system pushes off towards the east. strongest winds remain
over the northern and central portions of lake huron, given the
fetch, where winds of 15-20kts are most likely though gusts in the
20-25kt range are possible over the north-central waters- which also
would support some areas of freezing spray in ice-free waters. high
pressure dropping out of canada then expands over the region on
wednesday promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds. another
clipper swinging out of northern ontario is expected to draw an
arctic cold front over the central great lakes late friday-saturday.
strong trailing cold advection looks to offer the next shot at gales
and heavy freezing spray (for whatever ice-free waters are still
there by that point) over lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk/ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.