Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 160446
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1246 am edt mon mar 16 2026

.what has changed...
the wind advisory has been expanded to include the rest of our
southeast counties to account for a brief period of stronger wind
gusts in proximity to the cold frontal passage monday morning. the
remaining wind headlines have been extended through early monday
evening to capture strong southwesterly wind gusts behind the front.
continued refinement has taken place to the snowfall forecast across
the snowbelt for monday night into tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) southerly winds will remain gusty at times through early monday.
winds shift southwest and stay strong through the day monday,
gradually easing monday night. showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm along a cold front may also briefly enhance wind gusts
late tonight and early monday, mainly across northwest and north
central ohio.

2) wintry weather returns late monday and tuesday with wind chills
dropping into the single digits. accumulating snow is likely in the
primary snowbelt region, with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

3) limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend
expected wednesday through saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1...

southerly winds are quickly turning gusty this afternoon as daytime
heating allows mixing to deepen into a strengthening low-level jet
overhead. a wind advisory has kicked in for much of the area, with a
high wind warning for erie county pa. a couple of 50kt/58 mph gusts
are possible in northwest ohio through late this afternoon as has
been observed to our southwest, though think this would be on a
brief and localized basis so am holding with the advisory there.

a very strong low-level jet (65-75kt at 850mb, 40-55kt at 925mb)
will remain in place through early monday ahead of an approaching
cold front. the overall strongest winds in this regime will occur in
erie county pa this evening through pre-dawn monday, where
downsloping will bring potential for some gusts over warning
criteria of 50kt/58 mph, particularly across the northwestern third
of the county between the ridge tops and lakeshore. some downsloping
will occur close to the northeast oh lakeshore as far west as the
cleveland area, though to a somewhat lesser magnitude with
occasional advisory-level (40-49kt or 46-57 mph) gusts favored in
this area. elsewhere, wind gusts will likely lull at times overnight
in the overall warm advection regime as the near-surface cools and
stabilizes a bit, though it will remain gusty at times.

we`ll likely see some uptick in wind gusts from west to east late
tonight into early monday as the front progresses through. a
marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) remains in place
west of the i-77 corridor for overnight tonight. while there`s good
agreement at this point that meager (<100 j/kg of sbcape) will be in
place across the local area with convection expected to be weakening
as it comes in, a lack of a stronger near-surface inversion and
strong linear forcing along the front may allow a somewhat
organized, low-topped qlcs to push into the western half of our area
before completely weakening. if this pans out, any more formidable
line segments could locally enhance winds to severe limits (50kt/58
mph or greater) and bring potential for tree/power-line damage. it`s
worth noting that given the meager instability, any severe weather
may occur in the absence of lightning. confidence in severe weather
remains low to medium, and feel the marginal risk for damaging winds
covers it well. even without convection, the quick pressure
rise/couplet with the front and vertical motion associated with the
cold front itself may also help force stronger wind gusts, perhaps
back into advisory range, to the ground in proximity to the frontal
passage. confidence in advisory-level non-convective winds occurring
with the frontal passage is not high, especially in our southeastern
counties, though did expand the wind advisory to include the entire
forecast area to be in collaboration with surrounding wfos.

behind the cold front, strong cold advection along with a decent
pressure gradient and quick pressure rises will support continued
gusty southwest winds on monday. flow aloft appears marginally
strong enough to support some advisory-level gusts, especially west
of the i-71 corridor and along the lakeshore. have gone ahead and
extended most of the wind headlines through early monday evening,
save for our far southeastern counties. one more extension may be
needed along the eastern lakeshore into monday night, though will
allow future shifts to better evaluate that possibility.

outside of a passing shower late this evening or tonight, we will
remain dry and warm until the cold front brings a relatively narrow
band of rain to the area late tonight into monday morning. overall
rain amounts remain modest and have perhaps trended a bit lower,
generally in a 0.10-0.40" range.

key message #2...

it will remain very warm/mild until the cold front crosses very late
tonight or monday morning, with many areas staying in the upper 50s
or lower 60s until the front crosses. temperatures will then quickly
fall on monday, dipping below freezing from west to east during the
late afternoon and early evening. by early tuesday, air temperatures
will bottom out between the upper 10s and lower 20s with wind chills
dipping into the single digits. while not overly hazardous on its
own, this will be quite jarring after recent (and ongoing as of this
writing!) temperatures in the 70s and could affect outdoor st
patrick`s day plans. highs on tuesday will mostly stay in the 20s,
with another night tuesday night where large portions of the area
will see air temperatures reach the 10s for lows.

with the cold comes snow potential. while the greatest potential for
inches of accumulation will reside in parts of the snowbelt, much of
the area stands to see at least a bit of the white stuff. the band
of rain along the front will slow before exiting our eastern counties
monday afternoon, in response to the base of the incoming upper
trough taking on a more neutral to negative tilt. this will allow the
cold air to catch it enough that our far eastern counties may see a
brief period of wet synoptic snow later monday afternoon/early
evening. warm ground and marginal air temperatures should preclude
any roadway impacts before sunset, though some locations may see some
slushy/grassy accumulations from the synoptic snow from far eastern
ohio into northwest pa. otherwise, scattered snow showers are likely
area-wide beneath the upper level trough with some moisture
connection to lake michigan, particularly late monday afternoon into
the first half of monday night as a sharp low-mid level trough axis
swings through. the synoptic lift with the trough passage, weak low-
level instability, and gusty background winds may allow snow showers
late monday afternoon or evening to be a bit "squally". as
temperatures quickly plunge well below freezing into monday evening,
slick spots can develop on roads across the area where more
organized/intense snow showers occur.

shifting into the snowbelt, we are still looking at a brief window
monday night into tuesday morning where conditions appear conducive
for some late-season lake effect snow. expect lake effect snow to
begin developing and pushing onshore late monday evening as winds
align out of a west to slightly north of due west direction behind
the passage of a low-mid level trough axis, with this general flow
persisting until tuesday afternoon when low-level ridging starts
pushing in and backing the flow more southwesterly.

there is about a 15 hour window window starting around 8 pm monday
in which moderate lake-induced instability, good moisture/lift in the
preferred dendritic growth zone, limited wind shear, multiple
upstream lake moisture connections, and good convergence along the
lakeshore near or just east of cleveland will support moderate to
heavy snow (peak rates around 1" per hour) within more organized lake
effect snow bands. the main limiting factor is strong boundary layer
winds over the lake (gale or near gale-force) until early tuesday,
which may impact band organization or at the least push snow farther
inland. the secondary limiting factor is the time of year, with a
strong negative diurnal influence on lake effect processes during the
afternoon hours, limiting the window during which good accumulations
can occur. ultimately, continued to refine the snowfall forecast as
higher resolution guidance comes into range and have a general 2 to
5" snowfall forecast across the primary snowbelt. the higher amounts
will likely be found in the higher terrain away from the lakeshore,
with most of the snow falling monday night into tuesday morning but
with some lighter snow continuing into tuesday night along the
lakeshore. advisories may be needed for the snow, especially keeping
in mind that snow/impacts may peak during the tuesday am commute.

key message #3:

the late taste of winter will be short-lived, with highs returning to
the 50s thursday into friday and even some 60s becoming possible into
the weekend. minor precipitation chances are in the forecast for
parts of the area on wednesday, thursday, and later friday into
friday night. the precipitation on wednesday may fall in the form of
snow, though confidence in measurable precip is low as the system
will be weakening as it comes in...with any snow not expected to be
impactful during the daytime hours in mid-march.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
convection to the west continuing a slow eastward trek ahead of a
potent cold front that will work its way through the region late
tonight into monday. winds southerly/southeasterly 30-40kts become
southwesterly 35-45kts once the cold front passes through. the line
of convection, even without tsra, could enhance these wind gusts
briefly upon passage, and brief ifr/mvfr visibilities are also
possible with shra. ceilings lower to mvfr in the wake of the cold
front monday for the bulk of the period. late snow showers possible
with ifr at cak/yng/eri as colder air spills in and the trailing
upper level trough moves through the southern great lakes.

outlook...lake effect snow showers and possible squalls will
impact the snowbelt of neoh and nwpa monday night into tuesday
with non-vfr.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions are expected to be very rough today
through tuesday. a small craft advisory is currently in effect
today into tonight. a gale warning will take in effect for all
of lake erie monday morning through tuesday morning. southerly
winds will increase 25 to 30 knots today and tonight.
southwester to westerly gales 35 to 40 knots will move over lake
erie monday through tuesday morning. gusts monday will be up to
50 knots likely. waves will be increase with the highest over
the open basin up to 15 feet or more. winds will slowly ease
down tuesday into tuesday night but remain from the west 15 to
25 knots. additional sca will likely be needed after the gale
warning. winds and waves will be on the lighter side mid to end
of next week, southerly around 10 knots

as the strong winds shift southwesterly to westerly behind the
strong cold front monday morning, water levels will likely drop
in the western basin of lake erie. a low water advisory has
been issued monday morning through tuesday morning as water
levels are expected to drop below the critical mark for safe
marine navigation.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>031-036-037-047-089.
wind advisory until 11 am edt this morning for ohz032-033-038.
pa...wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz003.
high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for
lez142>149.
gale warning from 8 am this morning to 8 am edt tuesday for
lez142>149-162>169.
low water advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 am edt tuesday
for lez142>144-162>164.

&&

$$

discussion...10/sullivan
aviation...26
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 160506
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
106 am edt mon mar 16 2026

.key messages...

- a wind advisory remains in effect through this evening for
southerly wind gusts up to 55 mph.

- a line of showers and thunderstorms moves through from west
to east this evening. damaging wind gusts are the primary
hazard.

- breezy, cold, with lake effect snow on monday. wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph with snow will result in worsening travel
conditions monday. a winter weather advisory is in effect.

- very cold through at least wednesday morning with morning wind
chills ranging from about 0 to 15 degrees.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm edt sun mar 15 2026

little change in thinking into tonight through tuesday morning as a
major early spring storm system tracks through the region. as of
17z, a ~993 mb sfc low was analyzed near the ia/il border. this
feature will continue to deepen east-northeast as its mid level
shortwave takes on a negative tilt and eventually closes off a deep
tropospheric low center north through the western and northern great
lakes tonight into monday.

system warm sector continues to build north this afternoon with
strong southerly winds and temperatures surging well into the 60s to
near 70 for most locations. weakening showers will clip far nw
in and sw mi this afternoon, with most remaining dry with high
end advisory level wind gusts (up to 55 mph) anticipated at
times.

a more organized line of gusty showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms remains on target to slide east through the area this
evening into the early overnight along an incoming strong cold
front. the strength of the low level wind field with 850 mb
magnitude up around 70 knots does continue to support spc`s slight
risk for iso-sct damaging winds with more robust low topped
convective elements. the potential saving grace this go around is
the overall dearth of instability this far north with models still
only in the low-mid 50s for sfc dewpoints pooled along the front.
may very well just end up just behind a line of showers with gusts
40-50 mph.

blustery and sharply colder air wraps in under what should be a ~980
mb low into northern michigan late tonight into monday. wind whipped
snow showers should also be flying later monday morning through
monday evening cwa-wide as low level lapse steepen under the
eastward advancing deformation/upper trough axis. expect minor
accums and brief vis reductions outside of our les belts during this
time. no changes to the winter weather advisory for our northwest
flow les belts monday into tuesday morning from a combination of 2-
5" of accumulating snow, temps well below freezing, and gusty winds
helping to create reduced visbys and blowing snow. wind chills are
the story otherwise into monday night and tuesday, around zero
degrees fahrenheit.

ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to point to late
tuesday night into wednesday morning for the next opportunity for
light snow as a clipper system drops through in northwest flow. the
flow pattern then looks to flatten out a bit thereafter supporting a
warming trend for the second half of the week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 104 am edt mon mar 16 2026

the chance for thunder has decreased, so removed it from the
tafs. the main concern now is a wind shift as a front passes
through, with mvfr/ifr ceilings near 1000 ft. this will last
through the overnight hours into monday morning.

on monday, winds will become more northwest, and should have
snow showers throughout the day. toward the afternoon,
confidence increasing in some heavier bands of snow, so
continued with the prob30 for lower visibility less than a mile
at times.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 8 am edt /7 am cdt/ this morning
to 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ tuesday for inz005-006-103-104-
204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory from 8 am this morning to 11 am edt
tuesday for miz078-079-177-277.
marine...gale warning until 5 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...nws

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1139 pm edt sun mar 15 2026

.key messages...

- strong winds develop late this afternoon and continue
intermittently tonight. a wind advisory is in effect for all of se
michigan.

- a band of showers with scattered thunderstorms moves through lower
michigan tonight. an isolated storm could approach severe intensity
and a marginal risk is in place for all of southeast michigan for
mainly a damaging wind threat.

- hazardous wind gusts continue monday as arctic air sends
temperatures from the 50s monday morning into the 20s by monday
evening. arctic air also brings increasing chances for lake effect
snow showers and possible snow squalls monday afternoon.

- wind chills bottom out around zero tuesday morning with highs only
in the mid to upper 20s tuesday afternoon.

&&

.aviation...

rapidly deepening low pressure will track from nw indiana late this
evening across the saginaw valley and thumb region toward 12z
monday. this has been a little south and eastward shift, which has
driven the colder air farther south, reaching all the way to kfnt.
based on the track of the low, the metro detroit terminals should
remain in the warm sector through the overnight, maintaining gusty
south winds. the approaching moisture surge within the warm conveyor
will sustain ample showers during the overnight. based on upstream
radar and waning instability, expecting only isolated thunderstorm
risk through the overnight. strong cold air advection wrapping
around the departing surface low will drive another round of strong
winds monday, gusting over 35 knots at times.

for dtw...there will be a tendency for the south winds to decrease
at times as the more widespread rain moves overhead overnight. there
will be an abrupt wind increase out of the southwest after 12z. a
shift in the wind direction from sw to w is then forecast between
21z and 00z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet..

* low in thunderstorms overnight.

* high in precip type as snow monday afternoon.

* moderate in crosswind exceedence late monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 403 pm edt sun mar 15 2026

discussion...

the wind advisory is expanded across all of se mi and extended
through monday evening with this afternoon`s forecast update.
satellite and surface observations so far today are tracking the
well-mixed warm sector from the ohio valley into lower mi this
afternoon and evening. peak gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range have
been prevalent across il/in and reached the ohio border stations as
of 3 pm. similar gust conditions are expected to push farther north
into se mi during late afternoon and evening. the northward
elongation of the deepening low pressure center is the key in this
case to overcome the customary influence of the eastern great lakes
to delay northward progress of the warm front, although it still has
a stabilizing influence closer to the shorelines and with northward
extent. advisory level gusts become more intermittent after sunset
as model soundings indicate some perishable boundary layer
stability. gust frequency increases again after midnight as thermal
profiles become more neutral, as the low level jet peaks overhead,
and as showers increase across the area. this is followed by a wind
surge with the cold front and then hazardous gusts that continue
through monday as cold air surges into the region and the primary
surface low drops to near 980 mb depth in northern lower mi monday
afternoon.

showers become widespread across the area during the evening with
isolated to scattered stronger thunderstorms still to evaluate going
through the night. taking cues from afternoon observations and
hourly mesoanalysis shows a few lightning strikes now in far sw
lower mi feeding into deeper convection along the cold front
trailing off into the mid ms valley. mucape is still sub 500 j/kg at
mid afternoon which is captured well by the 12z href that shows the
surface based instability axis moving into and then collapsing over
southern lower mi. various hi-res models seem to acknowledge the
instability trends with solutions that show convection in a more
organized linear mode to the west and south this afternoon tending
to become more cellular to the north into lower mi while maintaining
some structure toward the ohio valley. the wind profile remains
worthy of respect for any surface based cell that can survive the
shear, and a marginal risk for severe intensity remains in place for
the area until the cold front sweeps through toward sunrise monday
morning.

monday carries a return to winter for the great lakes as cold air
surges into the region. the wind advisory highlights 45 to 50 mph
wind gusts, however the parent low pressure system is increasingly
supportive of lake enhanced snow showers/squalls during the
afternoon into monday evening. model soundings indicate convective
depth approaching 10 kft by mid afternoon aided by the 500 mb trough
and cold core reaching down to near -35 c. mid march daytime heating
also contributes to the steep lapse rate below cloud base and the
strong wind field adds a component to the snow squall equation while
direction shifts sw to nw by evening. the forecast is leaned toward
greater coverage making it into se mi from the lake michigan
shoreline, and a localized quick inch of accumulation is in reach
where any location gets more than one snow shower.

cold air is then rooted in the great lakes for the mid week period
highlighted by wind chill around zero tuesday morning. the next
round of snow still looks light in mid week model data and marks the
beginning of a late week warming trend.

marine...

an anomalously strong low pressure system will travel from southern
lake michigan late this evening, strengthening as it moves in across
northern lake huron by tomorrow morning and afternoon. this will
bring a wide array of unsettled conditions, including extended
windows for gust to gales, rain showers, snow showers, and highly
localized freezing rain/sleet chances.

for this afternoon... a warm front and associated strong low-level
jet now over southern michigan will continue to push north, stalling
around north-central lake huron by this evening. stability has
quickly increased across the southern great lakes with the advent of
warmer temperatures which hold gust potential to below gales. the
exception remains across north and north central lake huron as a
more neutral thermal profiles have allowed for strong winds aloft to
mix down.

for this evening... the approaching low pressure system will rapidly
increase the strength of the pressure gradient over the eastern
great lakes. the strength of the pressure gradient alone will likely
still support elevated gusts around 25 to 30 knots despite southern
locations being in the warm sector. for locations north across north-
central and northern lake huron, a lull in gust to gales will be
possible favored in the late evening and early morning hours monday
as the center of the low arrives overhead. in this window, freezing
rain to sleet will be possible across northern lake huron, with rain
and some isolated thunderstorm chances holding for locations south.

as the low departs the region late tomorrow into tuesday morning, a
strong cold front delivering arctic air arrives over the great
lakes. this will produce a well mixed environment and will bring the
most favorable conditions to see gust to gales for all locations,
down through lake st. clair and lake erie. the intrusion of cold air
will also convert any rain showers back over to snow showers and
will bring the likely chance for heavy freezing spray. a heavy
freezing spray warning has been issued for all of lake huron.
additionally, isolated squalls will be possible monday afternoon and
evening, favored across the southern lake huron basin, lake st.
clair, and lake erie. gale potential lasts through at least tuesday
morning before a brief ridge of high pressure fills in by tuesday
afternoon, ending gales. gale warnings are in effect for all marine
zones.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory until midnight edt monday night for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 11 am edt tuesday for lhz361>363-441>443-462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning from 2 pm monday to 5 pm edt tuesday
for lhz361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lhz421-422.

gale warning from 8 am monday to 11 am edt tuesday for lhz421-422.

low water advisory from 8 am monday to 4 am edt tuesday for lhz422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 5 am edt monday for lcz460.

gale warning from 5 am monday to 11 am edt tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 5 am edt monday for lez444.

gale warning from 5 am monday to 11 am edt tuesday for lez444.

low water advisory from 8 am monday to 8 am edt tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.