Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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155
fxus61 kcle 011918
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
318 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

.what has changed...
the rainfall forecast has trended higher for portions of ne oh/nw pa
sunday. however, confidence in the location of the heaviest
rainfall and the resulting greatest flooding risk is still
relatively low at this point.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of rain with some thunderstorms are expected
through sunday. heavy rainfall will be possible at times with
some flash flooding potential on sunday. isolated strong to
severe storms are also possible sunday afternoon into sunday
evening.

2) periodic scattered rain chances and near normal temperatures
are expected next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will slowly shift east across the midwest through
sunday, bringing multiple rounds of rain to the local area for
the rest of the weekend. any precipitation this afternoon into
the start of this evening will be light, although rainfall rates
will likely pick up as better moisture lifts into the area
tonight. a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but severe
weather is not anticipated tonight. by early sunday morning,
most spots across the area will see at least a quarter of an
inch of rain with locations along and west of i-75 likely
receiving up to 0.75" of rain. there are some signals for
training and locally higher amounts of 1-2" along the far
western fringe of the local area, although that higher
precipitation axis may be to the west of the cwa. will need to
keep an eye on where swaths of heavier rain occur, but in
general this initial round of rain will largely serve as a
primer for heavy rainfall on sunday.

a break in precipitation (or at least, lower coverage in shower
activity) is likely sunday morning, especially across north-
central ohio. by the afternoon, better upper level support will
move over the region, allowing additional showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move east through the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening. this will be the window for the
heaviest rainfall and likely the greatest flash flooding risk.
most of the area will receive 0.5 to 0.75" of additional
rainfall sunday afternoon/evening with some areas possibly
receiving 2 or more inches of rainfall where showers and
thunderstorms train. latest guidance suggests that the highest
rain amounts could fall across portions of ne oh/nw pa which
would result in an enhanced flash flooding risk, but will need
to see how high res models trend over the next 12-18 hours. have
opted against issuing a flood watch with this update since
confidence in the placement of the heaviest rainfall/greatest
training potential is still medium at best. would like to see
where the heaviest rain occurs tonight before making a final
decision on any headlines. on sunday, there is a slight risk
(level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall/flash flooding across the
majority of the local area.

there is still potential for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms sunday afternoon into sunday evening. jet support
will increase sunday afternoon as the low meanders eastward into
the ohio valley, resulting in increased shear. there`s still
some uncertainty with how much we destabilize given the
potential for morning showers/thunderstorms. if we manage to
clear out between rounds of rain then instability will be
higher, but any lingering showers/clouds could result in lower
instability and a lower severe weather threat. based on the
shear profile/wind field, any thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado sunday
afternoon/evening. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of
severe weather.

key message 2...
the low will finally lift northeast of the area on monday,
although persistent upper troughing will result continued
chances of rain showers through much of monday. a brief period
of dry weather is anticipated on tuesday before rain chances
increase as a shortwave lifts into the region wednesday.
scattered rain chances continue through the end of the week as
an upper trough shifts east into the area thursday/friday.
temperatures will generally be near normal with highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s anticipated.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
low pressure moving into the area brings scattered shra/tsra,
and the challenge for the forecast was the timing at each
terminal. tried to limit the tsra as much as possible in the end
and keeping restrictions within mvfr, but a stronger cluster of
storms may require /amd to ifr visibilities briefly. ceilings
will lower from mvfr and likely to ifr in places by dawn sunday.

outlook...occasional non-vfr in showers and thunderstorms into
sunday night. isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
with potential for non-vfr continue monday through wednesday,
primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
low pressure will move west to east south of lake erie tonight into
sunday, with winds becoming northeasterly around 10kts tonight,
increasing to 15-20kts sunday and sunday night. western and central
basin wave heights will increase to 3-5ft sunday night, decreasing
to 1-3ft as northeasterly winds persist through tuesday. winds turn
light and variable wednesday with wave heights less than a foot.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 012320
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
720 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

.key messages...

- showers and some embedded thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and continue tonight. there is a marginal risk of severe
storms this afternoon into this evening south of us route 24 for an
isolated wind threat. a flood watch has been issued for northern
indiana from early this evening through sunday afternoon. localized
rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches are possible where rain shower
bands tend to anchor in the same locations for a time tonight into
sunday morning. the greatest threat of flooding is generally along
and south of us route 24.

- dangerous swimming conditions are expected at lake michigan
beaches along the la porte county, in and berrien county, mi
shoreline. life- threatening waves and currents are expected,
especially sunday. a beach hazards statement is in effect. for
details, visit www.weather.gov/greatlakes/beachhazards

- conditions dry out from northwest to southeast later sunday into
sunday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 321 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

after an initial band of rain that swept from west to east across
the area this morning, most of the local area has remained dry
through mid afternoon due to the influence of a mid level dry slot.
vorticity advection associated with mid/upper level low across
central il is beginning to push eastward. an instability axis of
1000-1500 j/kg sbcape is continuing to nudge northward in modest
southerly flow regime downstream if this il disturbance and should
allow for continued shower and storm development across northern
indiana over the next several hours. a pocket of stronger effective
shear on the order of 30-35 knots may end up just skirting far
south/southeast portions of the forecast area across far ne in/nw oh
early this evening which is also coincident with pocket of 100-150 0-
1km srh. some isolated wind threat is possible in a brief window
late this afternoon/early evening far south/southeast, but currently
expecting greater potential of isolated-scattered severe storms to
remain across central in.

the potential of heavy rainfall will likely be the primary impact
locally. an impressive low level theta-e ridge that shifted into the
area this morning is acquiring more of a west-northwest to
east-southeast orientation in response to induced cyclonic flow
from upstream il mid/upper level low. this should create
favorable deep moisture profiles and efficient warm rain
processes tonight into early sunday. showers and embedded
storms should fill in across northern in through early evening
especially along and south of us 24, with an eventual pivot in
orientation of most favored rain shower axis to sw-ne oriented
from west central in to as possibly as far east as nw ohio late
evening/early overnight as deformation forcing begins to sharpen
up. this setup should provide favorable low level moisture
convergence for a relatively extended duration tonight into
early sunday morning.

earlier today, some highly efficient rainfall accumulation was noted
across nw indiana with the leading band of showers, with some
locations picking up a quick 1 to 2 inches. earlier today, did go
ahead and issue a flood watch for potential of flash flooding/areal
flooding for all of in counties from 21z this afternoon to 21z
friday, although greatest potential of heavy rain is roughly
from early this evening through mid morning sunday. given the
above evolution, the far north/northwest portions of the flood
watch may be at a bit lower confidence level for flooding rains
given increasing signals that the favored deformation forcing
axis may reside from southwest portions of the forecast area
through far ne in. did exclude nw oh counties as part of the
initial flood watch issuance, but an eastward extension of the
watch may be needed at some point. one mitigating factor to
flood potential tonight could be relatively dry antecedent
conditions, but if higher rainfall rates are able to anchor in
deformation region tonight, this will still likely lead to some
flooding issues for a portion of the area.

strength of deformation should tend to weaken sunday
afternoon/evening as responsible mid/upper level trough begins to
become attenuated and more sheared. conditions should dry out from
ne to se later sunday afternoon into sunday evening with a quieter
weather pattern through tuesday as a longwave mid/upper level ridge
shifts across ontario and the western great lakes. an active series
of pacific waves across south central canada/dakotas will dampen
this ridge middle of the week with local area possibly in a favored
theta-e gradient region for periodic waves in west-northwest upper
flow for additional shower/storm chances through much of the long
term period.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 720 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

potent mid/upper level low continues to swing through central in
with dry/stable ne flow locally. better low level moisture is
still expected to pivot into northern in later tonight and
multiple rounds of showers/isolated storms are expected at kfwa
as well as a trend toward ifr ceilings. thunderstorm coverage
will remain low and plan to hold with just a prob30 mention for
now. chances for storms and ifr ceilings are much lower at ksbn
where the drier ne flow is expected to persist longer but still
expect some low-end mvfr ceilings late tonight into early
sunday. conditions slowly improve back to vfr by late sunday
afternoon as upper low weakens and drifts se.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through sunday afternoon for inz005>009-012>015-
017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
beach hazards statement through monday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through monday morning for miz277.
beach hazards statement from sunday afternoon through monday
morning for miz177.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 012303
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast
into sunday. for this evening, the main area of concern for
thunderstorms and heavy rain are along/north of m-59 and up into the
i-69 corridor.

- heavy rainfall is likely somewhere over northern indiana,
southeast lower michigan or northwest ohio overnight tonight and
sunday. there is still uncertainty in where this axis will develop.
it could reach as far north as ann arbor to port huron and bring
flooding concerns, especially over urban areas.

- dry weather returns on monday, but it may become unsettled again
for parts of next week with chances of showers. temperatures will be
close to average for early august.

&&

.aviation...

a frontal boundary extending northeast of low pressure tracking
through the ohio valley will remain the focus for shower production
thru early tonight, mainly across fnt/mbs. the most intense showers
will bring brief reduction of visibility and lower of cloud base into
mvfr/ifr. otherwise, observational trends suggest predominant vfr
will persist through at least the remainder of the evening as
additional pockets of showers pivot around the low. expectation
remains for some degree of lower cloud development to emerge as
saturation increases within the lower levels during the early-mid
morning hours. this will occur as the focus for shower development
shifts to the detroit airspace up through ptk. a lower probability
remains for embedded thunderstorms to develop anytime sunday
morning, but confidence in occurrence remains quite low. northeast
winds with gusts aoa 20 knots are expected during the day on sunday.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance of thunderstorms
overnight and sunday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less through the evening. moderate to
high overnight and sunday.

* low for thunderstorms through taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 319 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

discussion...

a west-east axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms has begun to
develop this afternoon along an broad axis of surface convergence as
deeper moisture lifts north. this area is currently along/near the m-
59 corridor and expected to slowly lift north towards the i-69
corridor through this evening. this mornings raob from dtx showed
pwats above the 90th percentile for this time of year and a narrow
pocket of elevated instability between 1-6km. latest rap analysis
also shows this area generally uncapped, thus this pocket of
instability is likely now surface based. while instability is not
all too impressive, the warm, moist environment remains favorable
for higher rainfall rates with any thunderstorm activity. rainfall
this afternoon and into tonight will be highly variable and
dependent on where slow moving thunderstorm activity tracks.

afternoon surface and satellite analysis show both the surface and
upper-level low across central illinois. with the low already having
occluded across the midwest and the upper-level wave becoming
cutoff, it will be very slow to move east over the next 24-36 hours.
another wave of energy is progged to dig south across the region
tonight and through sunday, helping move the system along to the
east. with these two waves of energy approaching the area through
sunday, there remain uncertainties in how the potential for heavy
rain and training convection evolve. there will be multiple rounds of
large-scale ascent that move through the region, which will favor a
few windows of convection that look to remain loosely organized.
thus, it remains very difficult to pinpoint where any axis of
training convection could set up and bring possible urban flooding
concerns, so have opted to hold off on a flood watch. expect at least
0.5-1 inch of rain late tonight through sunday. locally higher
totals if we get into a training scenario with embedded
thunderstorms.

early next week, high pressure moves in behind the departing system
and we should have a few drier days with seasonable temperatures in
the lower 80s. with warm air advection moving back into the region
ahead of another system tracking east across the upper great lakes
and central canada, we should see a gradual warming trend through
mid to late week.

marine...

northeast flow picks up across the central great lakes tonight and
especially sunday afternoon as a low pressure system over the lower
ohio valley lifts northeastward. strongest flow will channel across
saginaw bay leading to small craft advisory conditions. similar
concerns for the rest of the lake huron nearshore, but will
reconsider an extension with the evening update. chances for rain
and thunderstorms continue through the remainder of the weekend as
the low and its associated frontal features approach. isolated
storms could produce locally strong winds and elevated waves today
through sunday. high pressure influence becomes entrenched across
the region monday offering drier weather and weaker winds, with
headline-free conditions.

hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are
forecast this afternoon into sunday. heavy rainfall rates are still
possible, especially with any thunderstorm activity. localized
rainfall totals may exceed 2 inch where persistent training
convective activity develops. this may lead to isolated flooding
concerns this weekend, particularly in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 am to 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...ja
marine.......kgk
hydrology....ja

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.