Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
516
fxus61 kcle 072359
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
659 pm est sat mar 7 2026

.what has changed...
the tornado watch has been canceled and severe thunderstorms are
no longer expected for the rest of the day.

&&

.key messages...
1) the next period of unsettled weather is expected tuesday
night through wednesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy
rain and perhaps a few stronger thunderstorms. light snow is
also possible with this system wednesday night.

2) a clipper system will move east through the upper great
lakes on friday which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local
area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a digging upper-level trough and intensifying jet streak are
expected on wednesday, favoring a deepening low pressure as it
tracks from the mid-mississippi valley towards southern ontario.
periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected with the warm
front initially as it lifts northward across the area tuesday
night. there could be a few stronger storms with the warm front
depending on the timing (afternoon/evening = better shot at
strong storms....if it`s late at night, strong storms unlikely).

most model guidance have our entire forecast area well within
the warm sector on wednesday, with breezy southwest flow (50-60%
chance of gusts > 30 kts) and very warm conditions (highs in the
low 70s; could be close to record highs). strong forcing will
lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms, with a
very favorable wind field for organized, severe convection.
severe thunderstorms are tough to forecast, so while synoptic
conditions are favorable with the current suite of model
guidance, it will likely come to smaller-scale details, which
will be ironed out as we get closer.

a very strong cold front will swing through sometime wednesday
evening, with an impressive temperature drop forecast as highs
in the low 70s wednesday afternoon drop to lows around 30
wednesday night. some residual moisture will allow for some snow
showers wednesday night with light snow accumulations not out of
the question. the latest nbm has a 30-50% chance of >1" of snow
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania (15-30% chance
elsewhere).

key message 2...
low pressure is expected to swing through the northern great
lakes friday into saturday. some light rain (maybe some snow
early) is possible with a warm front on friday. breezy
conditions (40-70% chance > 30 kts, highest in northwest ohio)
and above normal temperatures (mid 50s friday afternoon) are
expected behind the warm front on friday, before a rain to snow
transition of precipitation is expected with a cold front on
saturday.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
at 00z a cold front extends from near detroit to fort wayne
indiana and is moving southeast. the remnants of the afternoon
rain are just about to exit the eastern portions of the forecast
area while light rain showers along the cold front are expected
to move west to east across the area between 00-07z. conditions
are vfr ahead of the front but will lower to mvfr as the front
arrives. most of the rain showers will tend to be light but
visibilities may occasionally drop to mvfr. a few locations may
see brief ifr conditions but only included a tempo where it is
most likely at mfd. winds are expected to gust to 20-25 knots
along and behind the front with a wind shift from southwest to
westerly.

on sunday morning, a surface ridge will build in from the
southwest and subsidence along with considerable drying should
allow for clouds to scatter out from west to east between
14-17z. southwest winds will be breezy again on sunday with
gusts to 20-25 knots.

outlook...non-vfr is likely with showers and thunderstorms
tuesday night into wednesday followed by a rain/snow mix
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds around 20 knots or so continue through this
evening before a cold front swings and winds weaken to around 10
knots tonight as high pressure briefly builds in. high pressure
moves off to the east, with southwest flow around 10-15 knots
continuing through tuesday. a deepening low pressure system is
expected to move just north of the lake on wednesday, with
south to southwest flow increasing to around 20 to 25 knots on
the lake. warm and breezy conditions through this period is
likely to accelerate ice decay. a strong cold front will follow
with northwest winds of 20-30 knots likely wednesday night into
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...10/saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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327
fxus63 kiwx 072324
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
624 pm est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...


- more rain and thunderstorms are expected tuesday night into
wednesday. there is potential for heavy rain and severe storms
with this system but confidence in details is very low this
far out.

- cooler temperatures briefly return behind today`s cold front
but warm back to near 70 degrees for monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 pm est sat mar 7 2026

primary surface cold front associated with approaching positively-
tiled midlevel trough is currently entering our cwa. mesoanalysis
shows very limited instability ahead of this front with only a few
hundred j/kg of mlcape. hi-res forecast soundings further show a
sharp warm nose around 750mb, likely due to passage of morning
convection. some minor surface-based destabilization remains
possible into this afternoon but that inversion will be difficult to
overcome and not currently expecting any severe storms to develop.
however, winds in the top of the boundary layer are around 45 knots
so expect there will be a few 40-45mph gusts as this front passes.
given the short window at any one location, will plan to handle with
sps`s along the line as needed vs. a widespread wind advisory. this
cold front will exit our se zones around 00z with dry weather then
expected until late tuesday. lows tonight drop into the 30s but
temps rebound quickly on sun as mid/upper flow becomes highly zonal
and waa slowly ramps up in strong wsw flow. highs will be near 70f on
mon and well into the 70s on tue ahead of the next trough.

tue night/wed bears watching as an upper level low currently
developing off baja california phases with a northern stream pacific
jet/trough. the net result is what becomes a very strong, negatively
tilted trough with near 988mb surface low lifting into quebec. ahead
of this trough, ample moisture will lift north into the warm front
tue night. heavy rain is likely somewhere from our cwa into central
mi. will also have to keep an eye on severe weather potential with
ample shear/helicity along the warm front. instability is much more
questionable, especially if the best ascent does not arrive until
06z or later as currently suggested. will also have to watch the
cold frontal passage during the day wed. hard to nail down mesoscale
details this far out but tue night through wed is certainly worth
watching. colder air returns quickly late wed and precip may even
end as some brief snow showers. another system is then possible on
fri but guidance still shows a lot of variability with this system
so confidence is low.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 621 pm est sat mar 7 2026

a cold front is now east of kfwa. wind gusts are expected to
gradually diminish within the next few hours and momentum
transfer softens. time-height cross sections are soupy for the
overnight period and expansive mvfr stratus is noted upstream
across il and extreme eastern ia. as a result, i did slow
ceiling improvement by a couple of hours. wind gusts increase
again midday sunday with decent mixing from a 40-knot low-
level jet as clouds depart.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 072359
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
659 pm est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder return this evening
as a cold front works through southeast michigan.

- warm and breezy again sunday and monday, but drier.

- widespread precipitation likely late tuesday through wednesday
with showers, thunderstorms, and snow possible.

&&

.aviation...

thin line of showers associated with the cold front is moving
through southeast michigan, though will be mostly clear of the
southern terminals to start the taf period. predominately mvfr
ceilings accompany this front while southwest winds remain gusty to
around 25-30 knots. wind will shift out of the west with time this
evening behind the front while gradually declining in strength.
expect mfr stratus to hold through the night before clearing looks to
occur in the 12-15z window tomorrow. vfr will then prevail under
mostly clear skies. mixing potential will offer gusts to around 25
knots by late tomorrow morning through the afternoon as wind
direction returns out of the southwest.

for dtw...mvfr ceilings likely to hold through bulk of tonight with
clearing skies towards 14z tomorrow morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight. low sunday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 344 pm est sat mar 7 2026

discussion...

warm sector, marked by temperatures in the mid 60s (dewpoints in the
upper 50s), is becoming less favorable for late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. midday cape (250-500 j/kg) has already
peaked, and will continue to trend lower as a cold front and its
associated frontal circulations pass through. based on the location
of a lower michigan surface obs wind shift, the boundary is now
approaching the western cwa border with weak shower activity noted
in kdtx/kgrr reflectivity data. drier air has already filled into
the mid-levels while slight warming of the 800-700 mb layer has led
to weak stabilization and capping. additional scattered showers with
a few rumbles of thunder are still possible this evening, but
convective intensity has trended lower suggesting minimal severe
risk. late morning spc swody1 update removed the marginal risk
overlap for southeast michigan, and even the mention of general
thunder. flow turns zonal in the wake of the front tonight with high
confidence in dry conditions tonight, after 03z. 850 mb temperatures
crash below 0c late overnight with the airmass transition, capable
of producing lows in the 30s.

the active pattern persists sunday with 980 mb low pressure crossing
central ontario. prognostics indicate constriction of the pressure
gradient on sunday as winds back southwesterly. prevailing speeds
should broadly rise in the 20 mph range by midday as low-level winds
increase further. mixing depths will remain fairly shallow, even
during the diurnal maximum. 40-50 knot flow should stay trapped
above 875 mb (3 kft agl), but 35 knot flow could mix down and
produce a period of gusts ranging from 30-40 mph. the nocturnal
inversion settles in quickly sunday evening ending the higher-end
gusts. seasonably mild conditions extend into sunday as the latest
forecast indicates highs in the upper 50s. suppressing high pressure
over the southeast washes out as a split-flow configuration begins
to emerge within the broader vicinity of the great lakes region. no
precipitation concerns monday with temperatures being the main
story. warm and breezy southwest flow helps lift 850 mb temperatures
into positive double digit (celsius) territory supporting daytime
highs in the upper 60s.

an amplified pattern evolves upstream mid-week as a cut-off upper
low over the four corners region dislodges, quickly phasing with the
northern stream jet. rapid deepening of an embedded shortwave
feature leads to aggressive height falls across the midwest and a
sharp uptick in confluent southwest flow. this leads to an influx of
low-level thetae convergence and elevated nocturnal stability, late
tuesday into wednesday. potential exists for thunderstorms during
this time, but lapse rates are unimpressive and timing of low-level
saturation is in question. wrap-around moisture and a much colder
airmass fills in as the surface low exits into southern ontario
wednesday evening, which favors some post-frontal snowfall into
thursday. if current 2m temperature trends hold, accumulations will
be possible once ground temperatures drop.

marine...

cold frontal passage this evening clears out persistent fog as
moderate, cooler west-northwest flow develops in its wake. as is
typical in this wind direction, strongest winds occur over the
northern third of lake huron where gusts peak around 30kts.
potential to reach 34kts over these waters continues to be too low
to warrant any headlines. winds over the remainder of the region
instead hold at or below 25kts. departing low pressure allows winds
to weaken overnight before another stronger low tracks over northern
ontario sunday. locally, the passage of this ontario low shifts
winds back to the southwest sunday morning as 50-60kt flow develops
aloft. thermal profiles however hold on the neutral to slightly
stable side inhibiting the degree momentum is able to mix down to
the surface. while a couple gusts to entry-level gales are possible
over the central waters of lake huron (including the saginaw bay),
confidence is low given the thermal profile. instead, peak gusts
around 30kts are most likely. a diffuse pressure gradient sets up
across the central great lakes by late monday as the ontario low
reaches northern quebec allowing winds to turn lighter through
tuesday. active pattern and stronger flow return by midweek as
deepening plains low pressure tracks over the central/southern great
lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.