Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
438
fxus61 kcle 061919
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
319 pm edt sun sep 6 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry with slowly warming temperatures through tuesday.

2) a brief period of heat and humidity will arrive on wednesday
with showers and thunderstorms late wednesday into thursday.

3) cooler end to the week, but heat and humidity build again
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an omega block will continue across the lower 48 through the
rest of the holiday weekend, characterized by mid/upper troughs
over the pacific northwest and eastern great lakes/new england
and a broad mid/upper ridge in between over the plains. this
will keep the southern great lakes and ohio valley under
favorable upper level confluence to maintain a large surface
high of canadian origin overhead. as a result, the very pleasant
temperatures and low humidity found across the area this
afternoon will continue through labor day monday. expect another
cool night tonight, with lows in the low/mid 50s inland from the
lake and upper 50s to near 60 along the lakeshore. a slightly
warmer day is expected monday, but still comfortable with highs
in the mid 70s to around 80.

the large canadian high will drift east into the mid atlantic
region monday night and tuesday as the central conus mid/upper
ridge expands east into the ohio and tennessee valleys in
response to shortwave energy ejecting into the northern plains.
this will set up return southerly flow and resultant warm air
advection, so temperatures and dew points will be noticeably
higher tuesday. look for highs to get back into the low/mid 80s.

key message 2...
the mid/upper ridge will become firmly established across the
ohio and tennessee valleys (briefly) tuesday night and wednesday
as the aforementioned shortwave progresses into the great lakes.
strong warm air advection ahead of the accompanying cold front
and 850 mb temps warming to 17-18 c beneath the thermal ridge
will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90 wednesday, and
dew points in the low 70s will yield heat indices in the
low/mid 90s. the ridge will already be flattening wednesday
evening as the shortwave digs into the central great lakes. this
will push the cold front through the region late wednesday
evening or wednesday night. there will likely be a narrow ribbon
of moderate to strong instability given the heat and humidity,
and this coupled with the right entrance region of a 120-130
knot upper jet streak crossing lower michigan should support
organized convection. will need to monitor for strong to severe
storms wednesday evening into wednesday night, but the main
uncertainty continues to be convective coverage. a second
mid/upper shortwave crossing the great lakes thursday will
likely stall the cold frontal boundary over northern or central
ohio in response to a surface wave tracking along it, and this
will keep decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the
area thursday before drying out thursday night.

key message 3...
canadian high pressure will finally build into the southern
great lakes and ohio valley thursday night and friday and push
the boundary south of the area, supporting cooler and less humid
conditions. however, renewed mid/upper troughing pushing into
the western conus next weekend will build and expand the
stubborn central conus mid/upper ridge back into the great lakes
and ohio valley. this will cause heat and humidity to build back
into the area next weekend, with highs in the 70s friday warming
into at least the mid 80s for the weekend.


&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
some low vfr clouds have developed across the region with
incoming high pressure into the region and cooler air over warm
lake erie. there may be some intermittent ceilings around 3-5
kft but clouds should remain few/sct through the evening. clouds
will clear with the diurnal cycle ending. clouds will return on
monday morning with cold air advection over the lake. winds will
largely be northeasterly through the period. a land breeze may
develop tonight and allow for southeast flow at keri.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and storms on wednesday
and lingering into thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the southern great lakes will keep a decent
northeasterly gradient over the lake through labor day monday,
so kept ne winds in the 15-20 knot range the rest of this
afternoon and again monday afternoon. this will build wave
heights to 2 to 3 feet in the central basin with a moderate
risk of rip currents at times. winds will become light e to se
monday night and tuesday then sw at 15-25 knots late tuesday
night and wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. small craft
advisories may be needed wednesday. winds will turn w to nw and
decrease to 15-20 knots behind the front wednesday night and
thursday, going light by friday as high pressure returns.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sefcovic
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
077
fxus63 kiwx 061722
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
122 pm edt sun sep 6 2026

.key messages...

- the upcoming 7 days will feature a continued struggle between dry
and somewhat cooler conditions vs warmer and more humid weather.

- rain chances are somewhat limited, with the greatest
confidence of at least some measurable rainfall occurring wednesday
into wednesday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt sun sep 6 2026

visible satellite shows very clearly the dividing line being
represented by an are of stratus/stratocu from e ia into sw il and
to central ky. the muggy 70+ dewpoints are to the west of this and
60s (eventually some 50) dewpoints to the northeast. with time, this
higher moisture and temperatures will work back, arriving tuesday
and wednesday in response to a northern us disturbance set to
flatten the upper low and allow a warm front to surge back north.
dewpoints should return back into the 60s with some med range models
suggesting some 70s as well. this combined with a weak cold front
expected to pass through wed into wed night will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the area. some finer details still need
to be worked out regarding coverage, intensity and timing. model
blends have been rather conservative in past days, but have began to
introduce likely (60 to 70%) pops with decaying precip wed morning
nw and renewed development se in the afternoon/evening.

in the wake of this wave, temperatures and humidity levels should
fall once again as we await the next wave towards the weekend, which
right now looks to remain mainly nw of the area. lower pops exist in
this time frame for the time being.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 120 pm edt sun sep 6 2026

it is dry now that high pressure has taken over. dew points have
fallen back towards 60 degrees from around 70 degrees. given this
adjustment, fog potential enters the mind and fwa appears to have
favorable cross-over temperatures as well as radiational cooling in
bufkit soundings, but aviation guidance doesn`t seem to want to
create fog. perhaps dry advection has won out. will go with dry vfr
conditions for now, but still think it`s possible we end up with
some at least ground fog in places. otherwise, light east winds
continue into monday. &&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
953
fxus63 kdtx 061941
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
341 pm edt sun sep 6 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures with lower humidity with exist through
the early week.

- next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives tuesday night
into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

cool northeast flow over lake huron paired with early september sun
has produced steep low-level lapse rates and a healthy coverage of
diurnal cumulus today. benign conditions continue this evening, with
clouds giving way to clear skies tonight as high pressure
strengthens and eases farther south into the region. this is driven
by a rising geopotential height field associated with a longwave
ridge centered over the plains. as this ridge advances east into the
great lakes, increasing stability maintains tranquil weather through
labor day and into tuesday. clear skies and calm winds will bring
lows into the 50s each night, with lingering low-level moisture
offering potential for fog development. seasonable highs in the 70s
are expected again tomorrow, then a step up toward the lower 80s is
forecast for tuesday as flow emerges from the south/southeast.

the ridge flattens heading into midweek as a pacific wave tracks
across the canadian prairie. the dynamic forcing associated with
this wave will hold well to the north of the region, sending a
surface low across northern ontario tuesday night into wednesday.
southwest flow ahead of the trailing cold front will bring
increasing moisture and relatively high confidence for showers
tuesday night into wednesday. a few storms will be possible as well,
but models continue to favor weak lapse rates and muted instability.
boundary-parallel flow may contribute to some training of showers,
and deep moisture (pwat near 1.75" and 99th percentile integrated wv
transport per euro ensemble) brings potential for heavier rainfall
rates at times. however, the bulk of ensemble qpf output favors a
band of heavier rain farther south over the ohio valley where
stronger convection plays a role. breezy conditions follow frontal
passage on thursday morning, then high confidence exists for broad
high pressure to re-establish by late week, signaling the return of
pleasant early fall weather.

&&

.marine...

benign marine conditions continue through monday and part of tuesday
due to vicinity high pressure promoting atmospheric stability. the
next chance for increasing winds and waves arrives tuesday
afternoon, ahead of a seasonably strong low pressure system tracking
across southern canada into hudson bay. robust gulf-modified
southwesterly low-level flow and the associated warm (then cold)
front(s) should lead to rising thunderstorm chances midweek. pre-
frontal winds/waves should peak wednesday afternoon with the
possibility of borderline gusts to gales for portions of lake huron.
drier and cooler conditions are expected for the rest of the
workweek with elevated northwest flow. small craft advisories will
likely be needed on wednesday for most of the nearshore waters.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt sun sep 6 2026

aviation...

high pressure continues to expand into se michigan today with a
light northeast flow off of lake huron contributing to sct-bkn
diurnal cu this afternoon. this cloud cover should wane through the
evening before redeveloping again to a lesser extent monday.
otherwise, persistence forecast with light northeast flow expected
through the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not expected through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.