Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
287
fxus61 kcle 071150
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
650 am est sat nov 7 2026

.what has changed...
no significant forecast changes were made with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler with periods of lake effect rain showers today into
tonight.

2) turning milder into next week with unsettled weather
returning late next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level trough is currently over the eastern great lakes
this morning. scattered lake effect rain showers will be around
today into this evening, mainly impacting the snowbelt region of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. high temperatures
will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. skies will start to
clear from the west to east late tonight into early sunday
morning. temperatures will drop tonight into the 30s away from
the immediate lakeshore.


key message 2...
high pressure will start to build into the ohio valley sunday
and remain through mid week. mainly dry and milder weather will
be expected for the first half of next week. another upper
trough will dig south into the region later in the week. there
is the potential for unsettled weather to return at some point
later next week and colder weather.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
widespread mvfr ceilings are observed this morning. lake
enhanced rain showers continue to impact portions of northeast
oh and northwest pa, particularly at eri but with some impacts
to yng and cle too. the rain showers are bringing non-vfr vis,
mainly into the mvfr range but with some brief ifr with heavier
showers. eri will be in and out of showers through the first
half of tonight, with an ongoing uptick in activity and another
potential uptick later this afternoon/evening after a relative
lull. for cle, there may be one more uptick in showers capable
of vis restrictions mid-late morning. yng also stands to see
potential for heavier showers with vis reductions later this
morning into the early afternoon. a drying trend will gradually
bring ceilings up through mvfr and to vfr from west to east
this afternoon into tonight...a similar drying trend will also
gradually cause the lake enhanced showers to shift east and
diminish later today into tonight. improvement will be slowest
across northeast oh/northwest pa, with vfr not expected until
late tonight or early sunday at cak/yng/eri.

northwest winds generally in the 6-12kt range (with some 20-25kt
gusts, especially at eri) will shift southwest tonight while
diminishing to under 10kt.

outlook...mainly vfr expected. rain showers with potential for
non-vfr are likely across far northeast oh and northwest pa
sunday night into monday.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds remain elevated at 15-25 knots today. winds will
turn southwesterly 15-25 knots tonight into sunday. another
cold front will move across the lake sunday night with northwest
winds at 20-25 knots. wave heights through this weekend will
largely range between 4-8 feet, primarily east of the islands. a
small craft advisory remains in effect for all nearshore zones
through the weekend, except the western basin which expires at
10 am saturday morning. surface high pressure builds overhead
early next week which will allow for winds to decrease below
small craft criteria.

there is also a risk of waterspouts today into this evening
given the cold air aloft and potential for persistent lake
effect showers.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
886
fxus63 kiwx 071005
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
505 am est sat nov 7 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably cool conditions continue today into tonight.

- a slow warming trend commences sunday through tuesday, with highs
in the 60s by tuesday.

- cooler temperatures return for the second half of next week.

- dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 214 am est sat nov 7 2026

heights will be on the rise and warm advection will commence today
into tonight as a well defined upper low exits east through the
eastern great lakes and new england. lake clouds will linger
for much of the day in lingering nw flow, though partial
afternoon clearing and waa could allow temps to recover into the
low-mid 50s.

several northern stream shortwaves and associated mid-upper level
jet streaks bypass north-northeast of the area sunday through
tuesday allowing for dry conditions, a gradual warming trend, and
somewhat breezy conditions at times.

ensemble guidance continues to come into better agreement in a
deeper negative height anomaly emerging over the eastern conus by
the second half of next week. this likely draws a cold front through
the area around wednesday with another shot of cooler/breezy wx
thursday through saturday. chances for measurable rain appear on the
low side however with flow trajectories favoring far nw in and ne il
around thu-fri for higher lake effect rain chances.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 504 am est sat nov 7 2026

lake plume will continue to offer high mvfr to low vfr cigs this
morning into the early afternoon. clearing thereafter with
westerly winds up to near 10 knots diminishing to around 5
knots tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
080
fxus63 kdtx 071141
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
641 am est sat nov 7 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers taper off this morning with mostly cloudy and
seasonable conditions the rest of the day.

- slightly milder and breezy on sunday.

- temperatures stay on the warmer side of average through mid week
before a cool down arrives late week.

&&

.aviation...

a compact low now over eastern lake erie continues to govern
conditions across the airspace this morning. the primary impact has
been efficient moisture flux off the lakes resulting in broad mvfr
ceilings nearly everywhere except the corridor from mbs to dtw where
a narrow slice of vfr exists. the expectation through the morning is
for upstream mvfr ceilings to be drawn into the airspace as winds
shift from northwest to west. the exact timing of this is uncertain,
although hi-res models are focusing in on the 12z-14z period. mixing
in the boundary layer will help lift the stratocu above 2000 feet by
early afternoon, with an aggressive dry slot moving in this
afternoon to push the stratus into ontario. vfr then expected
tonight as winds settle out of the wsw. heading into sunday morning,
a cold front will be making inroads toward the airspace. this leads
to strengthening wsw flow near the end of the taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning becoming low by this
evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 406 am est sat nov 7 2026

discussion...

deep, closed upper low pressure over eastern lake erie tracks
eastward toward new england through the day with moist cyclonic flow
maintained in its wake across southeast mi. morning stratus evolves
into stratocumulus as daytime mixing commences, with mostly cloudy
skies prevailing through the day. scattered early morning showers
will move out leaving dry conditions the rest of the day save for a
spotty sprinkle or two. the cold core of the system has already
departed and will allow for high temps to rebound slightly compared
to yesterday, landing in the lower 50s. a tight corridor of
isentropic downglide accompanies the arrival of anticyclonic flow
this afternoon, leading to rapid drying and the eventual clearing of
remaining clouds this evening. favorable radiating conditions cause
temperatures to quickly drop this evening, settling into the lower
30s and upper 20s overnight.

a pacific jet streak arriving into the pnw causes the next canadian
shortwave to amplify as it tracks from southern manitoba into the
great lakes on sunday. this wave induces a period of warm air
advection on breezy southwesterly wind sunday morning. temperatures
rebound into the mid 50s while afternoon wind becomes gusty to
around 30 mph. the attendant surface low passes northeast of
georgian bay late sunday, dragging a cold front across the area. the
greater lift tied to upper height falls and pva will focus over lake
huron, but a slight chance (20%) of light showers will exist along
and behind the front sunday evening.

cold air advection behind the sunday wave is short-lived and
temperatures will stay on the mild side into the mid-week. a
progressive upper air pattern persists through this period with a
shortwave ridge cresting overhead monday before the next trough
arrives on tuesday. fropa tied to this wave also looks mostly dry as
the bulk of forcing slides north of the local area. by the end of
the week, more persistent troughing develops across the great lakes
and eastern conus. this will favor temperatures falling on the
cooler side of average. northerly flow shows potential for lake
effect rain and snow showers at times.

marine...

low pressure now located across the eastern great lakes will wash
out across new england today. this will allow wind speeds to
decrease through the late morning and afternoon hours and will bring
light winds well into the evening. this window for lighter winds
will be short-lived as a second low pressure system pushes from the
central canadian provinces into southern ontario and quebec
tomorrow. this will initially support breezy southwest flow with
gusts at or below 30 knots, taking into consideration the more
stable conditions under the stream of warm air aloft. however, as
this low departs, winds will veer to the northwest, ushering in
another round of cold air. the boost in instability over the warmer
lake waters will help mixing depths tap the stronger winds aloft.
this brings increasing confidence for gust to gales tomorrow
afternoon through monday morning across northern lake huron. a gale
watch remains in effect. for locations south, small craft advisories
will be likely for the saginaw bay and portions of the lake huron
shoreline as gust potential around 25 knots will be possible, in
addition to the elevated wave heights across the outer saginaw bay
and thumb under the initial southwest flow.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lhz422.

gale watch from sunday afternoon through monday morning for lhz361-
362.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...tf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.