Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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098
fxus61 kcle 261858
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
258 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes as quiet weather continues.

&&

.key messages...
1) layer rh remains at such a level that precipitation will be hard to
come by in any appreciable amounts until the late weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
zero precipitation cold front will be south of the cwa this
evening/tonight, with only anafrontal cloud cover to show for it and
wind shifts. as high pressure centered in quebec builds back into
the region for tuesday, winds out of the northeast will have the
most significant effect on temperatures, with the lakeshore areas
down several degrees into the low to mid 60s. otherwise, temperature
decreases further inland in the wake of the cold front will be
minimal.

another cold front moves in from the northwest for late thursday
into thursday night. as mentioned above, the column rh is low, and
with the main energy of the low pressure system moving through
northern ontario and central quebec, shower chances will be on the
decrease as the front moves into ohio. ultimately, chances will be
mainly isolated, and only bare minimum qpf is expected, primarily in
ne oh/nw pa. it will not be until the weekend when a pattern change
brings more of a spring-like pattern with a warm sector developing
and a feed of moisture form the gulf. this will increase convective
chance going into the latter half of the weekend. until that point
in time, expect above normal temperatures from wednesday onward, and
widespread 70s for this late october time frame.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
widespread vfr conditions will continue through this period
across all taf sites. sct high clouds are expected to build in
later tonight into tuesday. northeast winds of 5-8 knots will
linger through this afternoon before becoming light and variable
tonight.

outlook...primarily vfr expected through friday.

&&

.marine...
in the wake of a cold front, winds northeasterly 10-20kts tonight
into tuesday bring wave heights to 2-4ft, gradually decreasing to 1-
3ft tuesday night. as high pressure moves southeast of lake erie,
winds become offshore and will remain offshore through the end of
the week below 10kts through wednesday with wave heights less than a
foot, and then 10-20kts thursday into thursday night ahead of the
next cold front with wave heights increasing to 1-3ft. winds
offshore once again friday behind the cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...04
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 261833
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
233 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

.key messages...

- some patchy fog possible especially for southeastern portions
of the area overnight tonight. a few locations could become
dense.

- warm and dry conditions persist for much of this week with
highs in the 70s and lows around 50.

- there is a chance for light rain near lake michigan on
thursday with a better chance for more widespread rain early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 158 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

fairly quiet pattern continues across the area. main concern
for this shift has been the potential for fog overnight tonight
into tomorrow morning. a west to east weak stationary boundary
feature currently is in place over northern in. right now the
current thinking is that the southwestern portions of the cwa
have the better chance at fog as winds further north and east
look to be a bit stronger keeping the lower levels better mixed
and amount of moisture will also be lower in those locations
which will help to keep fog development at bay. the other
question is how much mid level clouds associated along the
boundary develops which would also hinder radiational cooling.
that is why there is a bit of uncertainty with this forecast in
particular as any wavering of the boundary would change things.
so will be keeping a close eye on things tonight.

otherwise, dry conditions will primarily continue with a fairly zonal
flow aloft in place through the remainder of the week. however,
on thursday a weak disturbance ripples through just to the north
of the area and may bring light rain showers and even a rumble
of thunder for areas mainly north of us-6 and especially for
areas near and adjacent to lake michigan. temperatures through
the week look to remain above normal with highs in the 70s and
lows generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. next week the longer
range guidance does show the pattern in place now beginning to
break down and becoming potentially more active. the 6-10 day
outlook does show above average chances for precipitation and
much above normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1235 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

a weak cold front is seeping into far northwest indiana this
afternoon. through time, this will allow winds to veer and
become northeasterly tonight, followed by southeasterly tuesday.
no rain is expected with this front. marine fog from lake
michigan will be monitored this afternoon, but this is so far
seeping southwest. tonight, we`ll monitor for any marine fog
from lake erie (low confidence).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 261948
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
348 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

.key messages...

- cooler temperatures can be expected tuesday.

- mild weather will then prevail through the rest of the week.

- there is a chance for light rain thursday and thursday night.

&&

.discussion...

the surface cold front will exit south of the state by late
afternoon. the shallow low level frontal circulation and lack of
upper level forcing has maintained a dry fropa across se mi today.
the cold front has been driven southward as a 1035mb sfc high
expands across northern ontario. this high will sustain low level
anticyclonic flow across se mi through tuesday as it drifts toward
srn quebec, resulting in continued dry weather across se mi. post
frontal cold air advection will drop 925mb temps down into the
single digits tonight. a light gradient flow and occasional mid/high
clouds will offer some limit to radiational cooling tonight,
supporting lows from the upper 30s in the thumb to mid 40s in
detroit. residual shallow cold air within east-southeasterly sfc
winds will limit daytime mixing on tuesday, supporting daytime highs
of mid 50s in the thumb to low 60s across metro detroit south.

occasional mid/high clouds will persist into wednesday as a broad
mid level warm air advection regime envelops the region within
emerging deep layer southwest flow. an embedded short wave impulse is
forecast to lift into the great lakes region from the southwest
wednesday. model cross sections indicate elevated and shallow moist
isentropic ascent associated with this feature, not supportive of
rain. veering of the surface winds toward the south on wednesday
with the continued eastward departure of the surface high will drive
925mb temps into the teens. probabilistic guidance is well clustered
on highs into the low 70s wednesday within the pattern, roughly 15
degree above seasonal norms.

a northern stream short wave will drive a sfc cold front into lower
mi on thursday. there are indications that the deep layer frontal
structure will weaken/become frontolytic as it tracks across se mi
thurs/thurs night. nonetheless, a narrow axis of deep layer moisture
with some steeper mid level lapse rates will warrant a chance of
showers. probabilistic guidance suggests the better chances will be
across the tri cities and thumb. strong indications within the data
indicate that if it were to rain, qpf amounts will be a few
hundredths of an inch at best. strengthening southwest flow in
advance of the front will set the stage for a mild day thursday as
model soundings and prob guidance support highs in the low to mid
70s. any semblance of post frontal cold air advection looks brief as
the northern stream jet retreats to the north allowing mild air to
remain entrenched across the great lakes region.

&&

.marine...

ongoing post frontal cold air advection is boosting northerly wind
gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range across southern lake huron.
recent runs of the wave model are suggesting significant waves across
the southern basin and portions of outer saginaw reaching 3 feet
this evening, with max wave heights in the 4 to 5 foot range. while
somewhat borderline, a short fused small craft advisory has been
issued for this evening.

winds and waves will decrease overnight and will veer more easterly
associated with strong high pressure expanding to the north of lake
huron. the high will become centered over new england by wednesday.
this and an approaching cold front from the northwest will result in
south-southwesterly winds across the lakes. an increase in the
southwest gradient immediately ahead of the front on thursday will
boost wind gusts to 20 to 25 knots. while the wind response may be
tempered a bit by the warm air advection across the lakes, the
southwest flow may lead to another round of hazardous conditions to
small craft on saginaw bay.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 138 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

aviation...

forcing along an elevated frontal boundary will likely aid in the
production of some localized low-lying vfr clouds from kfnt down
into the metro terminals through the evening hours. the signal to
achieve mvfr cig heights has been relatively weak, but cannot rule
out some sparse development heading into the evening hours. the
forcing responsible for any localized shallow cloud bases will stall
near kyip to kdtw overnight as low-level winds veer to the
southeast. veering winds could help bring in residual moisture from
lake erie, bringing a low confidence setup for mvfr overnight and
through daybreak. given the subtle forcing and weak moisture
advection off the lake, will preclude any mentioned of mvfr cigs at
this time.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft today.


&&


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......sc
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.