Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 062325
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
725 pm edt tue oct 6 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through
saturday night.

2) rain chances return sunday into monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the remainder
of the week and beginning of the weekend. high pressure over the
ohio valley and lower great lakes will exit to the east as a cold
front swings southeast across the region wednesday evening. most of
the forecast area will remain dry with the frontal passage outside
of low-end pops in lake enhanced rain showers across northwest
pennsylvania wednesday night. another area of high pressure
builds overhead behind the cold front which will continue the
prolonged dry conditions through saturday night.

high temperature through the period will generally remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. slightly warmer highs possible wednesday and
saturday in the mid 70s as a warm front will lift across the
region both days.

key message 2...
by sunday, a disturbance originating from the
gulf will move north towards the tennessee and ohio valleys
bringing increased tropical moisture to the region. if the
forecasted track persists, widespread rainfall is expected
sunday into monday. will continue to monitor forecast trends
with this disturbance in the coming days.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr are expected through the taf period. high pressure drifting
to the east will allow southerly flow to develop tonight,
becoming southwesterly during the day tomorrow and increasing to
around 12 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

a cold front will swing through during the afternoon/evening
hours on wednesday, with a period of sct/bkn clouds around
4,000-8,000 ft and winds becoming more westerly.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain showers on sunday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions under high pressure will come to an end
tonight as southwesterly winds increase to 15-25 knots ahead of
a cold front. a small craft advisory has been issued from the
islands to willowick through wednesday afternoon and from
willowick to ripley ny through wednesday night. elevated
southwesterly winds persist through wednesday evening before
winds shift west-northwesterly and decrease to 10-15 knots by
late wednesday. choppy conditions may continue into early thursday
morning across the central basin with wave heights of 2-4 feet
possible before wave heights subside by thursday afternoon.
onshore flow 10-15 knots continues through friday afternoon
before winds shift southerly and remain offshore at 10-15 knots
through the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm edt wednesday for
lez144>146.
small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...garuckas/saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 061808
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
208 pm edt tue oct 6 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions are expected through this work week.

- high temperatures will alternate between above and below
normal. on wednesday, temperatures south of us 24 may reach
the low-80s.

- the next opportunity for rain is late this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt tue oct 6 2026

dry weather persists through the start of the weekend, yet autumn
temperatures transition to late-summer warmth at times. high
pressure is now centered over the steel city (pit) permitting mild
southerly flow to ease in. aloft, on water vapor, an upper-level
ridge over ca and wa has buckled the jet stream through the northern
plains and upper midwest. this allows a progressive weather pattern
to take shape this week and ultimately results in tug-of-war with
high temperatures. a few spots south of us 24 may see highs in the
low-80s wednesday afternoon, yet we`ll cool back down about 8 to 10
degrees on thursday, only to warm back up toward 80 degrees
saturday.

aside from temperatures, eyes are also on the western gulf where the
national hurricane center is monitoring an area for tropical cyclone
development. global model guidance suggests remnants from this
emerging system could arrive to at least the southeast portions of
the forecast area late this weekend. nothing to be alarmed about at
this distance with an in-house blend of global models suggesting
about a 30-40% chance of measurable rainfall. with a strong ridge
building over the central us, a westward drift of the lingering rain
shield appears unlikely. to the north, a frontal boundary pushing
into the northern great lakes this weekend will provide further
steering influence of any tropical remains. incoming rain would
prove inconvenient for harvest activities.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1208 pm edt tue oct 6 2026

high pressure overhead continues to provide tranquil and dry
conditions. expect vfr ceilings through the taf period (with
very few clouds at all) with southwest winds between 5-10 knots.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 062248
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
648 pm edt tue oct 6 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend wednesday with temperatures in the 70s.

- mainly dry conditions with seasonable temperatures thursday and
friday.

- turning warmer again next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a broad region of elevated warm air advection will support a few
intervals of mid and high based clouds during the night and into the
morning hours. an approaching surface warm front and departure of
surface high pressure to the east will sustain a light south-
southwest wind throughout the night. some borderline llws is possible
at fnt and mbs overnight. the chances don`t seem to warrant the
mention in the tafs just yet. a weak cold front will pass across se
mi wed afternoon. little moisture will limit cloud coverage to just
scattered to perhaps broken vfr based strato along/ahead of the
front. diurnal mixing will be supportive of afternoon wind gusts
around 20 knots.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast today and tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 257 pm edt tue oct 6 2026

discussion...

notably milder conditions arrive tonight, established within a
meaningful window of warm air advection under persistent low level
southwest flow. this pattern emerging within the immediate
downstream moderating warm sector ahead of an inbound cold front set
to arrive wednesday. this in combination with periodic thicker mid
level cloud lends to low temperatures wednesday morning arriving a
solid +10-15 degrees warmer than that noted this morning. existing
system relative isentropic ascent lacks in greater moisture quality,
while better forcing remains displaced to the north. there remains a
small subset of the model solution space that offer a lower
probability for a few widely scattered showers/sprinkles to develop
overnight, mainly across the saginaw bay region and northern thumb.

modest height falls emanating south of a closed system lifting thru
hudson bay will draw the associated lead cold front across southeast
michigan wednesday. limited moisture quality and lack of larger
scale dynamics or frontal convergence still suggest a dry frontal
passage. daytime heating effectively counters any meaningful initial
cold air advection during the diurnal heating cycle. this will allow
highs to push into the lower to middle 70s. some modest late day
gustiness to the post-frontal westerly wind. secondary stronger cold
frontal passage set for wednesday night as the main vorticity lobe
glances across the northern great lakes. this may again offer a lower
probability for shower production mainly north of i-69 during the
overnight hours. outgoing forecast holding with dry conditions at
this stage.

broad, high-latitude surface ridge centered near northern ontario
will expand southward into the great lakes basin thursday, becoming
fully entrenched over southeast michigan thursday night into friday.
the deep layer stability held within this environment affords dry
conditions to finish the work week. coolest conditions thursday as
850 mb temps dip into the lower single digits within the immediate
post-frontal environment. strong radiational cooling prospects
thursday night likely bring low temperatures back into the 30s for
some locations. strengthening southerly flow within the background
of an aggressive increase in upper level heights will then lead to a
more significant warming trend for this weekend. this will push
temperatures well above early october normals by sunday as readings
climb well into the 70s. strong ridging aloft ensures dry conditions
through at least the first half of the weekend. attention for the
back half of the weekend will focus on behavior of a deeper plume of
moisture currently projected to accompany a stronger mid level
circulation out of the western gulf. an upward revision in forecast
precipitation chances plausible sunday as confidence in system
trajectory improves.

marine...

south-southwest winds strengthen this evening into tonight as the
northern ontario low pressure tracks closer tightening the local
gradient. ongoing warm advection acts as a limiting factor to peak
wind gusts with both model soundings and local probabilistic
guidance being fairly low on gale potential (<20%). given the longer
fetch across central/north-central lake huron, can`t rule out a few
gusts to low-end gales early tonight but winds are expected to peak
more in the low 30kt range. as such, will continue to hold off on
any gale warnings. small craft advisories remain in effect through
wednesday morning for the saginaw bay/port austin waters due to
these winds and subsequent waves. surface cold front eventually
crosses wednesday flipping flow to the northwest with persistent
james bay troughing maintaining moderate gusts (20-30kts) through
thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt wednesday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.