Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
312
fxus61 kcle 041825
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
225 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing for a few strong to severe storms this
afternoon (3 to 7 pm), generally along and east of the us-30 and i-
71 corridors. the forecast is also briefly trending drier across
much of the area between 9 pm and midnight.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon, mainly along
and east of the us-30 and i-71 corridors between 3 to 7 pm. some
storms may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts.

2) periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through monday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding is possible.

3) temperatures will return back to near normal into early next
week, before becoming slightly above normal towards mid to late
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest surface and satellite observations reveal a boundary
roughly draped sw to ne along the i-71 corridor early this
afternoon, in addition to a developing lake breeze generally
along the i-90 corridor east of cleveland. anticipate an uptick
in showers and thunderstorms in this general area over the next
couple of hours before storms exit to the southeast. attention
will then turn further south and southeast for potential
additional development closer to the us-30 corridor (still east
of i-71), later this afternoon and early evening as the boundary
becomes more w to e- oriented and stalls. although for the most
part, deep layer shear is lacking, (25 to 30 knots located
across northwest pennsylvania), other thermodynamic parameters
(strong sbcape, dcape, and low-level lapse rates) remain
favorable for a damaging wind gust threat and perhaps some
organized clusters this afternoon and early evening, especially
across northeast ohio into northwest pennsylvania, mainly
between 3 and 7 pm.

in terms of precipitation coverage later this evening after 8 pm,
and particularly between 9 and midnight, rain chances appear to be
decreasing across much of the area as stable air briefly enters the
region. will still need to monitor the potential for residual
convective debris both from the north (ontario/lake erie) and the
west (indiana), though the overall trend appears to favor a briefly-
drier forecast during this timeframe.

key message 2...
the story over the next several days will be the potential for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across
the region as a weak low pressure system gradually moves east
from the midwest into the ohio valley through monday. the main
concern with any showers and thunderstorms will be the heavy
rain threat, given a lack of steering flow less than 15 knots,
skinny cape profiles, and anomalously-high pwats around 1.80
inches. some isolated flash flooding (mainly rate-driven up to
2" per hour) is possible where storms persist, though given the
continued chances into monday, will also need to monitor area
rivers for some minor rises. at this time, the overall severe
weather threat remains low sunday into monday given the lack of
flow, though can`t rule out some isolated instances of wet
downbursts in the strongest cells.

key message 3...
the heat advisory remains in effect across much of the area
into this evening as heat indices remain elevated in the 90s to
near 100. anticipate a slight improvement in the overall weather
pattern over the next week as temperatures moderate back to
around normal (low to mid-80s), though maximum heat indices will
remain elevated in the upper 80s to lower 90s. temperatures may
rise slightly above normal by mid to late week in the upper 80s
to near 90., though heat indices should remain below 100.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
showers and eventual storms are developing over northern ohio
this afternoon and will expand in coverage over the next several
hours. the best areas for storms will be kmfd, kcak, and kyng
which are south of the lake breeze boundary and another surface
boundary moving through north central ohio. the best window for
impacts to a terminal will be 19z-23z. storms should stay just
southeast of kcle given the lake breeze. later tonight, some
storms in indiana should develop and may pass close to ktol
after dark. there should then be some reprieve in convection
this evening into the first part of tonight. then, a low
pressure system and cold front will start to move into the
region for sunday and bring widespread rain to the region. there
could be some heavier rain that may bring some mvfr vsby and
ceilings around daybreak to most of the terminals. some
backbuilding of rain with the low across the region is expected
and hard to give confidence when rain will end/break across the
region and have just kept tafs simple with rain through the end
of the taf period for most. winds will shift to the west then
northwest with the boundaries moving through the area. winds
will then vary overnight into sunday with the low moving through
the region but should eventually settle on northeast flow for
sunday.

outlook...weak low pressure and a cold front move across the
region sunday and monday, bringing occasional showers and
thunderstorms. non-vfr ceilings and visibility also possible
sunday night into monday.

&&

.marine...
north to northwest flow will continue over the lake this
afternoon into this evening behind a lake breeze. a low pressure
system will enter for sunday and northeast flow will develop
over the lake and strengthen to 15 kts and waves will build to 2
to 3 ft over the western and central basins. this unfavorable
flow will continue into monday and weaken on tuesday with winds
of 10 kts or less. high pressure will build from the west for
wednesday and thursday and switch winds back to southerly,
offshore flow. there is potential for a small craft advisory
with the northeast flow for sunday and monday if winds can
increase just a touch from the current forecast.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
568
fxus63 kiwx 041817
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
217 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight risk for severe weather today, mainly along
and south of us 24. damaging winds will be the main threat
with strong to severe storms expected between 4-11 pm edt.

- scattered thunderstorm potential continues into sunday; a few storms
may produce gusty winds but severe storms are not expected at
this time.

- dry conditions are expected for the early to middle part of next
week with continued warmth as highs remain in the 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 215 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

happy 4th of july! there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather today along and south of us 24 in indiana and ohio. we are
monitoring a remnant mcv located over eastern ia/western il as of
early this afternoon. storms have developed across northern and
central illinois ahead of this feature and track east/southeast into
our area. satellite imagery shows clearing ongoing across northern
indiana with destabilization expected to occur in the next few
hours. surface observations show temperatures in the mid 70s
with dewpoints around 70 degrees as of 2 pm edt. amidst a
moderately unstable hot and humid airmass overhead, multicell
storm clusters are expected to pose a damaging wind threat
between 4-11 pm edt mainly along and south of us 30. with highs
expected in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, storms should be able to tap into 2000-2500 j/kg of
sbcape. forecast soundings are not as impressive as yesterday
but they do once again depict inverted v profiles with dcape
above 1000 j/kg, which indicates a favorable environment for
damaging winds. other favorable parameters include low level
lapse rates in excess of 8 c/km and pwats around 1.5". even if
storms stay sub- severe, heavy rain and lightning will still be
hazards. isolated instances of flooding may occur given recent
heavy rainfall, saturated ground, and slow storm motions given
weak shear. if you have any outdoor plans for the 4th of july
today and tonight, stay safe and stay cool!

convection evolution is uncertain on sunday due to uncertainty on
placement of remnant outflow boundaries from today`s convection, but
have continued pops for tomorrow afternoon and evening between 40-
70%. another moderate instability with weak shear setup is likely
given that we will be warm and humid once again. scattered storms
may develop in the afternoon and evening that produce gusty winds,
but widespread severe weather is not expected for sunday. given slow
storm motions, i would not be surprised to see heavy rain and
isolated instances of flooding. isolated to scattered storms may
linger into monday, especially along and east of i-69, where 20-40%
pops have been maintained.

a high pressure system then builds into the midwest and great lakes
starting on the later half of the day monday. dry conditions are
expected for the early to middle part of next week with continued
warmth as highs remain in the 80s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 128 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

we`ll be watching areas to our west again this afternoon for more
potential for strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. morning clouds
broke giving time for instability and heat to regenerate. a
relatively strong vort max (for hot weather) approaches this evening
providing the chance from 20 to 04z or so (maybe ending around
6z at fwa). there`s still some question on eastward and
northward extent of rain/storm coverage, so will use prob30
groups for this chance. showers may also attempt to erupt again
on sunday with the potential for thunder as well. especially if
it does rain this afternoon into tonight, there could be some
fog potential, but it looks to evaporate not too long after
sunset perhaps owing to its potential shallow-nature. it could
also be a thin stratus layer, but sustained winds appear too
weak to go that route for this issuance.

winds are more west and northwesterly today through tomorrow with
sustained winds weaker than 10 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
239
fxus63 kdtx 041922
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
322 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms today with an
isolated risk for strong to severe storms through 10 pm.

- additional chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight
into sunday as a low pressure system drifts south of the state.
there is an even lower chance for isolated strong to severe storms.

- there is a localized heavy rainfall threat today and sunday.

- heat and humidity remain to start the weekend but at more
manageable levels with highs in the mid 80s and heat indices in the
low to mid 90s today.

&&

.discussion...

active holiday weekend is underway across se michigan as heat and
humidity fuel thunderstorm chances today and sunday. extended
stretch of above normal temperatures has generally come to an end
with temperatures now in the mid 80s, and even cooler high
temperatures (low 80s) sunday through tuesday as a weak cold front
drops across lower michigan rest of today and tonight. this occurs
as high pressure expands south into ontario.

the front will be the main driver of scattered thunderstorm chances
this afternoon-evening. have already seen activity light up along
the convergence axis, which will migrate south between now and
roughly 02z (10pm) tonight. the main limiting factor to convective
vigor is the marginal instability profiles, as mid-level lapse rates
are only about 5.0-5.5 c/km. that said, if the outflow from these
storms can constructively merge into an organized cold pool this
could offset some of the instability limitations. latest thinking
from a severe standpoint is that these storms will be capable of
gusts 40-60 mph as they track south-southeast through the evening
hours. will also need to keep an eye on the mcs that is developing
over northern illinois. models have shifted slightly, now hinting at
the mcs clipping into lower mi later tonight. if this occurs, still
looking at wind as the main threat but would mean higher pops
continuing across the south overnight.

the perturbation driving this feature is forecast to move across the
ohio valley late tonight, with several additional waves then
forecast to follow in its footsteps until the main trough axis
arrives sunday afternoon. as this occurs, the mid level deformation
axis eventually forms into a closed low. all of these waves will be
capable of engaging the moisture-rich, unstable airmass to keep
showers and storms going overnight, particularly south of m-59. much
of this will be ongoing upstream activity that advects into the
area, similar to what we have seen over the past 24 hours.

arrival of the synoptic trough sunday afternoon strengthens the
signal for an extended period of deformation over se michigan. plan-
view wind plots show potential for a convergence axis to develop
over ontario, which would be capable of sending multiple rounds of
slow-moving showers/storms into the detroit metro region sunday.
this combined with the slow storm motion (~10 knots), a moisture-
rich environment (pwat of at least 1.8 inches, dewpoints in the low
70s), and modest instability all point toward a heightened heavy
rainfall risk starting sunday and ending when the deformation axis
pushes east. there will also be an isolated damaging wind threat due
to precipitation loaded cores. when this deformation axis dislodges
is inconsistent in the current model suite, ranging sometime between
sunday night and tuesday. this equates to a low predictability setup
for the early week period which could include persistent rain
chances. more details on the heavy rainfall threat in the hydrology
section.

cooler temperatures expected early next week, followed by another
heat spell mid-week as high pressure/upper level ridging build in.
nbm high temperatures once again approach 90 degrees, although se
michigan will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge which tends
to be more open to the storm track. this expecting an active late
week period.

&&

.marine...

ongoing progression of a cold front which has now cleared the saginaw
bay and southern lake huron will continue to progress south this
evening across lake st. clair and lake erie. this will pivot wind
direction from the northeast and will bring the continued chance for
isolated/scattered showers or thunderstorms. outside of any
thunderstorm development, ambient winds remain on the lighter side
this weekend and into early next week as high pressure system builds
in. additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist again tomorrow
across the southern great lakes, but otherwise the early week period
will remain dry.

&&

.hydrology...

several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist through
the holiday weekend within a favorable environment for heavy
rainfall. a swath of 1+ inch rainfall fell over the i-94 corridor
last night with half inch reports in many other locations. any
additional storms that develop within this environment will be slow-
moving and capable of rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour.
a heightened opportunity for heavy rainfall exists sunday and sunday
night with potential for a convergence axis to develop over ontario
and establish a band of training showers and storms into the urban
areas of the detroit metro region. this could result in localized
storm totals in excess of 2 inches. confidence in this type of
pattern however is low and the model signal is weak, but if this does
occur there is increased potential for flash flooding especially in
urban, low-lying, and flood prone areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1235 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

aviation...

ample boundary layer moisture has resulted in a widespread mvfr
based strato cu field early this afternoon. ongoing diurnal
heating/boundary layer growth will allow ceilings to trend toward
vfr during the afternoon. the heating in combination with the moist
boundary layer will result in weak to moderate instability this
afternoon/evening. a southward moving cold front this
afternoon/evening will enhance low level convergence, providing a
good chance for convective initiation. this is most likely in the
kfnt/kmbs area with the potential for the convergence to sink
southward across metro detroit this evening. weak mid level short
wave energy may support a few showers/isolated thunderstorms across
the metro detroit area again overnight.

d21/dtw convection...scattered to possibly numerous clusters of
thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly between 22z and 03z
across the airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in thunderstorms this evening. low overnight and sunday
morning.

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......am
hydrology....mv
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.