Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 am edt tue aug 25 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
cold front wednesday night through thursday.

2) warm and mostly quite weather expected for the end of the
week and weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure is over the ohio valley this morning and will
continue to build into our area today through early wednesday.
there are still some lake effect clouds and a couple isolated
lake effect showers this morning lingering over far northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the flow aloft will shift from
northerly to more westerly today and a weak upper level ridge
will move over the region today into tonight. the lake effect
clouds will eventually clear out later today. the rest of the
area will see a very nice, sunny day with high temperatures in
the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. quiet and fair weather is
expected tonight into most of wednesday with high temperatures
a couple degrees warmer. a weak cold front will approach the
area wednesday night with scattered showers and storms moving
into nwoh by late evening. there is a severe weather risk west
of our local area but that threat quickly diminishes wednesday
night as those storms will weaken by the time they move into
nwoh. the cold front will slowly move across the area on
thursday. there will be a redevelopment of showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. the severe weather threat will
very low due weak thermodynamics thursday. drier weather will
move in behind the thursday evening, but there could be a few
isolated lake enhanced showers near the lakeshore thursday
night.


key message 2..
warmer temperatures and more nice weather will return friday
through the weekend. high pressure will build back into the
region friday and weekend. high temperatures on friday will
range from the middle 70s to lower 80s. mostly sunny and late
summer very weather will be around this weekend with
temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s. that very weather
may continue into early next week. the next chance for showers
and possible storms will be early next week with another cold
front dropping through the great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
still some clouds and a few showers coming off the lake into the
eri vicinity, though this should finally end for good through
the rest of the morning. some mvfr cigs and perhaps vsby are
possible within any showers across northwest pa. there is a bit
of patchy fog early this morning, though it`s not impacting any
taf sites and should quickly improve by 13-14z. otherwise, vfr
is ongoing and will continue, with a scattered cumulus deck
around 4000-5000 feet likely filling back in for a few hours
this afternoon across northeast oh and northwest pa. light and
variable winds early this morning will shift north-northwest and
increase to 4-8kt this afternoon, then light out of a more
southerly direction at <7kt tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
winds and waves are on the decrease early this morning across
the lake. northwest winds are in the 8 to 15kt range early this
morning, and will continue to gradually come down from west to
east through the morning hours. waves of 1 to 3 feet early will
continue to subside to under 2 feet by midday. winds shift
southerly tonight through wednesday night ahead of an
approaching cold front, increasing to 10-15 knots at times.
winds shift more west-southwest at 10-15 knots on thursday as
the front passes. winds will subside behind the front thursday
afternoon. waves will build to 1 to 3 feet at times late tonight
through thursday afternoon, though winds and waves are currently
favored to remain below small craft advisory criteria.
confidence in thunderstorms with the frontal passage is low to
medium, with any thunderstorms capable of producing briefly
higher winds/waves. winds shift more north-northeast thursday
night into the start of the weekend as high pressure tracks
across the central great lakes. speeds should remain under 20
knots but may increase to 10-15 knots at times, enough to
perhaps build 1 to 3 foot waves towards the southern shore.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
715 am edt tue aug 25 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and much lower
humidity continue today. patchy fog this morning.

- 40-70% chances for rain and storms wednesday afternoon and
evening. there is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather
with all hazards possible. medium confidence.

- there is a 20 percent chance for showers and storms thursday
afternoon along and south of us 24, mainly east of interstate
69. there is a moderate swim risk on lake michigan beaches in
la porte co, in and berrien co, mi. waves of 2-3 feet and
currents expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 512 am edt tue aug 25 2026

surface high pressure/upper level ridge in place over much of the
area today and tonight will keep weather quiet. expect partly to
mostly clear skies, light winds, and highs in the 70s, low 80s.
overnight lows will be in the 50s. patchy fog is possible this
morning.

spc marginal to slight risk for severe storms wed...

the upper level ridge breaks down and shifts eastward wednesday
along with the surface high as an upper level trough enters into the
upper great lakes. this trough will cross through our forecast area
and into the lower great lakes by thursday morning. the
corresponding surface low pressure crosses northern ontario/lake
superior wednesday, lifting into quebec by thursday afternoon. this
brings a cold front across our cwa wednesday afternoon into late
wednesday night/thu am. there could be a few showers/non-severe
storms during the late morning/early afternoon hours near lake mi
and in our mi counties before we see better forcing arrive with the
front. once that occurs, models develop a convective line of storms
(possibly initially discrete) that drift roughly east-southeastward
through late evening. the exact timing and point of initiation is
still slightly uncertain-some start the cells over lake mi and drift
them eastward along i 80-90 before filling in further southwestward
with time, others develop a broader line initially and eventually
weaken on the north end, pushing the greatest threat further
southwest. in some cases, it almost appears the lake breeze of lake
mi enhances the development, which would trigger storms further east
of the lakeshore counties. however, most of the guidance has the
best severe potential developing between 4 pm-12 am edt. forecast
wise, have broad 40-70 percent pops following this general trend as
a first start. given the earlier onset time to coincide with peak
heating, confidence is slightly higher in severe weather occurring
than previous forecasts. models are also slightly higher on mid-
level lapse rates (6.5c/km)...though they still aren`t really that
great. still, much of the guidance has about 1500-2500 j/kg of mixed
layer cape by the afternoon (some suggest higher further southwest).
0-6 km bulk shear is slightly higher than previous runs suggested as
well, on the order of 25-40 kts. this is enough for supercells to
develop (especially models indicating the higher end of that range).
with any supercell development, we have all hazards on the table,
including tornadoes. 0-1 km shear values (20 kts) and srh values
(around 100 or more), in combination with low lcl`s certainly
support that. these parameters were also part of the reason for
increased confidence in severe weather occurring (medium
confidence).

mostly dry outside of a low chance (20 percent) for showers and
storms along and south of us 24, mainly east of i 69 on thursday.
northwest winds behind the front will kick up lake mi waves to
around 2-3 feet, which is a moderate swim risk. currents are
expected. monitor the beach forecast for more details.

surface high pressure and weak ridging builds in friday into sunday,
allowing for mostly dry conditions. highs will be in the upper 70s,
low to mid 80s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 714 am edt tue aug 25 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals through the period,
with light winds and mainly high clouds to contend with.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
555 am edt tue aug 25 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend through the middle of the week with increased
humidity.

- next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive late wednesday.
an isolated strong storm possible wednesday evening.

- lingering chances for isolated showers/storms thursday afternoon.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure centered over southern lake michigan migrates into the
ohio valley today, promoting high stability and continued vfr
conditions. wind remains light with some directional variability
until predominantly southwest flow emerges in the afternoon.
meanwhile, the lake breeze offers a s or sse component at the metro
detroit sites. mainly sct coverage of diurnal cu this afternoon
below intervals of high cloud. vfr through tonight with a weak
gradient wind precluding a mention of any fog.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through today and
tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 331 am edt tue aug 25 2026

discussion...

progressive shortwave ridging aloft will push across the great lakes
today supporting surface high pressure. differential geopotential
height rises and increased thickness will support a notable uptick
in daytime temperatures. highs today are expected to be near 80
degrees which is right at lake august seasonal averages.

next pacific upper level jet packet and reasonably well organized
upper level low pressure circulation will dig into lower michigan
wednesday and wednesday night. residual stability and subsaturated
airmass between 3.5 and 9.0 kft agl will lead to quiet weather
conditions for early and midday wednesday. will likely be looking at
two thetae warm front structures the first bringing iso-sct showers
and virga 16-20z, the second associated with cyclonic flow and
greater convergence along a prefrontal trough at 23z wed to 05z thu.
wind progs suggest 850mb winds/llj increasing +30 knots immediately
in advance of the prefrontal trough contributing to 0-6km bulk shear
magnitudes of 30-35 knots. forecast soundings continue to show
statically stable conditions throughout the lowest 4.5 kft agl which
casts doubt on whether or not thunderstorm activity will be
elevated. regardless, marginal instability at around or less than
1000 j/kg limits much in the way of widespread severe weather.
latest swody2 has the majority of southeast michigan in a marginal
risk for severe weather primarily for the late afternoon and early
evening hours. a portion of western lenawee county is designated in
a slight risk for severe weather as there is some potential for
supercells to the southwest of the area.

models suggest a good amount of wave dampening which results in
nothing more than a spoke of absolute vorticity thursday. deep
cyclonic flow with steeper lapse rates aloft brings an isolated
chance of showers thursday afternoon. good confidence in additional
humidity on thursday with dewpoints then dropping behind a cold
front friday.

confidence appears to be increasing that any pacific shortwave
energy will wait until very late in the weekend. gfs has come more
in line with the ecmwf in keeping surface high pressure in place
saturday.

lower confidence exists regarding the forecast next weekend. there
is some global deterministic differences on when the next pacific
jet packet will push into the great lakes region. another very nice
late summer weekend looks likely.

marine...

high pressure will settle over the great lakes today and will
support light winds and dry weather. southwest flow will become
better established by tomorrow ahead of an upper-level disturbance
and cold front, which will increase wind speeds across lake huron
given the more favorable fetch. wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots
will be increasingly likely with the southwest flow as rain showers
and some thunderstorm begin to build in. shower and thunderstorm
chances will persist into thursday morning with the passage of the
front. post frontal northwest flow will take hold through the day on
thursday with low-end chances for rain showers. high pressure
then builds back in friday to end the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...cb
marine.......cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.