Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
096
fxus61 kcle 261140
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 am edt sat sep 26 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes needed to the prior forecast or
messaging.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly dry weather and fall temperatures are expected
through tuesday with scattered rain chances returning by the
middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
fall weather with dry conditions is expected through tuesday
evening as high pressure affects the region. the exception may
be sunday evening when a few light rain showers may briefly
drift in from the east across northwest pennsylvania. temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal over the next several
days with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s each day. by late wednesday, weak low
pressure will move into the midwest and great lakes region.
forecast has trended drier on wednesday with only isolated rain
showers, increasing a bit in coverage on thursday and friday. no
thunderstorms are forecast.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr will continue through sunday morning as high pressure
remains anchored over the great lakes. high cirrus in ne ohio
and nw pa this morning will move out this afternoon allowing for
clear skies everywhere.

light ne winds this morning will increase to 5-10 knots this
afternoon, becoming light again tonight.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of overnight patchy fog are possible.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds to 10 to 15 knots with periods of winds close
to 20 knots are expected through monday morning with light and
variable flow monday afternoon through tuesday evening. waves in
the central and western basins will generally be between 1 and
3 ft through early monday morning, though the forecast has
trended a bit higher for sunday afternoon into sunday night when
the likelihood for 20 knots winds and some 4 ft waves could be
possible.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
023
fxus63 kiwx 261007
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
607 am edt sat sep 26 2026

.key messages...

- this weekend, cool, crisp mornings give way to afternoon
temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s. temperatures trend warmer
into the early work week.

- dry conditions persist until early wednesday morning.

- rain chances take over from the mid work week potentially
continuing into the weekend. uncertainty still remains with
heavy rain/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 am edt sat sep 26 2026

a relatively vigorous shortwave continues to sink southward through
the day today doing nothing more than providing a few clouds to the
area. the column is rather dry as surface high pressure noses in
from the north. still the area looks entrenched on the western side
of a rex block as a strong upper low deepens along the east coast
and a high pressure system sits in southeastern canada. this block
helps to dampen a wave as it approaches from the west sunday
night/monday and this allows dry weather to continue as another
surface high approaches from the west later monday into monday
night. finally, a pacific wave approaches the northern plains and
western great lakes between monday and tuesday helping to kick the
stalled strong area of low pressure along the east coast out to sea.

this opens to the door to increased moisture as a mid level wave
with its strongest support in the upper jet more in canada and a
shearing area of vorticity to its south that tries to edge into the
area into tuesday night. the best columnar moisture swings through
northern and western areas late tuesday night into early wednesday
morning. models currently only have mid 50s to low 60s dew points
moving in during that time, but 850 mb dew points do surpass 10c.
the ecmwf has minimal mucape to work with. this all seems to
indicate issues with moisture working into the region overall and
potentially some issues with dry air choking moisture transport up
and to the surface even with a moisture connection to the gulf.

after the prior wave moves through into at least the first part of
wednesday, it appears there`s a bit of a break in rain until the
washed out front from wednesday moves back northward as a warm front
for thursday. this front stalls out across the area and serves as a
focus for showers from thursday into the weekend. storm potential
will be dependent on the eventual location of the front, as
better instability could stay south of the area. surface dew
points reach 65f thursday and friday the ecmwf has good large
scale ascent across the area thursday am as well as parts of
friday and saturday. there is still plenty of disagreement
between when a cutoff low in the southwest makes it up here, but
sometime between friday and saturday looks likely. if there was
one day that looks like there could be some stronger
thunderstorms, it`s saturday, but we have a long time to get
there yet.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 606 am edt sat sep 26 2026

surface high pressure to the north of the area keeps dry air
entrenched overhead and helps the area retain vfr conditions
through the period. winds stay out of the northeast and will be
light, staying less than 10 kts sustained.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
308
fxus63 kdtx 261020
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
620 am edt sat sep 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather persists through the weekend and into the first half of
next week with temperatures near normal.

- the next chance for rainfall arrives ahead of a low pressure system
and cold front on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

highly localized pockets of shallow fog have developed across the
airspace this morning given onshore flow from lake huron, although
terminal sites at issuance remain vfr. any expansion of impacts from
this lake moisture will be brief as a dry and stable airmass is in
place with diurnal mixing about to begin. main cloud trends today
then just become high cloud moving in from ontario, which is getting
wrapped around the deep low off the atlantic coast. high pressure
overhead however maintains dry weather and light northeast flow that
shifts to the north by monday morning.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 441 am edt sat sep 26 2026

discussion...

noticeably warmer today amidst a decreasing cloud fraction and
slowing northeasterly winds. the latter comes in response to the
surface pressure gradient becoming more diffuse over the great
lakes, positioned beneath the full-column upper midwest ridge that
should build northeastward to center over ontario/quebec. this also
aids in pushing out a meandering low-amplitude inverted shortwave
trough responsible for lingering mid/high cloud. overlaying 500 mb
geopotential heights from the 00z deterministic medium-range
solutions, southeast michigan situates along the interface between
vicinity ridging and the western extent of a broad warm-core
nor`easter, expected to stall over the lower hudson valley until
monday. the net result will be the advection of cool and dry air
from canada, yielding a rain-free forecast through the weekend for
the local area. the 26.00z kdtx raob sampled this moisture-starved
airmass between 20 kft agl and yesterday`s boundary-layer. with a
measured pwat of just 0.28 inches, a record low was observed for the
date/time pairing. forecast soundings do indicate slight recovery in
tropospheric moisture, with periods of high cloud today, and perhaps
a diurnal cumulus response sunday afternoon.

the existing composite ridge axis extending from the gulf into east-
central canada preserves surface high pressure into monday and most
of tuesday next week. with little-to-no surface wind and 850 mb
temperatures holding near 10c, highs should easily reach the lower
70s both days. the surface gradient could become reestablished as
early as tuesday afternoon, taking on a south-southwesterly vector
ahead of the next precipitating system. a well-advertised, potent
pacific longwave trough eventually digs onshore over california,
absorbing what becomes of eastern pacific hurricane polo. this
phased wave then ejects across the plains, deflecting a lower
amplitude embedded northern stream shortwave over lower michigan
late tuesday into wednesday. moisture advection from the southern
system will lead to a marked uptick in thetae, eventually priming
the column for a few rounds of showers wednesday and perhaps
thursday. high variance exists amongst nwp qpf projections, affected
by the differing track and evolution of the various competing
synoptic waves. several deterministic solutions suggest little to no
rainfall south of i-69, even through 00z friday (e.g. 00z gem, icon,
and ukmet).

marine...

high pressure will hold over the great lakes through early next
week. some periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be
possible across southern lake huron this today and tomorrow, but
otherwise, wind gust potential to or below 15 knots is expected for
most locations. wind direction will mainly hold from the north to
northeast with high pressure in place.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.