Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1204 am est sun nov 30 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure will move northeast through the central great lakes
tonight into sunday, dragging a surface trough across the area
sunday night. weak high pressure will build across the region on
monday. another low pressure system will move northeast from the
gulf coast to the mid-atlantic on tuesday. a strong cold front
will move south through the great lakes late wednesday into
thursday.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
virga is overspreading northern ohio from the west on radar early
this afternoon, with snow expected to begin reaching the ground along
the i-75 corridor around 3 pm before spreading east into the rest of
this area this evening and tonight. aside from a slight decrease in
forecast snowfall (talking all of few tenths of an inch lower in
general) outside of northwest ohio, there`s been no notable change to
the general forecast, impacts, or headlines with this forecast cycle.
temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s early this
afternoon with dew points in the 10s, suggesting temperatures will be
near freezing when snow arrives over the next several hours and
quickly dip a few degrees due to wet bulbing. a slow warming trend
then arrives later this evening into the overnight. air and ground
temperatures will support snow accumulations on roadways pretty
quickly once steadier snow pushes in.

a look at various water vapor, satellite, radar and observational
data depicts a flat but fairly potent/classic, negatively tilted
shortwave trough and associated maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving
through the mid-mississippi valley this afternoon, with the whole
system expected to slide east-northeast into the southern great lakes
tonight into sunday. to the west, the steadiest and heaviest snow is
occurring from northern il into northern/central in, on the nose of
the stronger low to mid-level (i.e. 850 to 600mb) jet and warm
advection. in this area, good isentropic upglide along with some
pockets of low-mid level frontogenesis are leading to moderate to
strong lift, with some of this lift intersecting the dendritic growth
zone. this has led to a fairly solid shield of moderate to locally
heavy snow (with some embedded banded snow) in this area. as the
system lifts east-northeast, this zone of lift will spread across
western and northern portions of our forecast area late this
afternoon through this evening, bringing an initial period of snow
and likely the heaviest and most efficient snow of the event,
especially across northwest ohio. increasingly dry low-levels and
more separation from the responsible shortwave and low pressure will
lead to snow potential with this initial band this evening becoming
more questionable farther east and southeast towards the mt vernon -
canton - youngstown corridor. once this initial band of lift and snow
pushes northeast and out of the area into the overnight snow will
continue amid general warm air advection ahead of the approaching
mid-latitude cyclone, though mid-level moisture and lift will decrease
in this regime, leading to a lower ratio/less efficient snow and
generally lighter precipitation rates. some breaks in the snow are
likely late tonight into sunday morning as the dry slot spreads in,
though a band of precip is expected to swing west to east across the
area sunday morning along the system`s trailing cold front.

because the initial band of fluffier snow this evening will generally
be weaker with eastern/southeastern extend across our forecast area,
and because the snow the remainder of the event will be lower ratio
and lighter (as surface temperatures also climb towards and above
freezing from south-southwest to north-northeast between 1 am and 8
am), lowered snow amounts just slightly across most of our forecast
area outside of northwest ohio. in northwest ohio, hi-res and
regional models depict a few hours of potentially heavy snow as the
initial band of mid-level lift pushes through this evening, primarily
between 6 pm and 10 pm. based on modeled qpf rates and forecast
soundings showing moderate to strong lift briefly maximizing in the
dendritic growth zone, snow rates of 1 to 1.5" per hour remain likely
for at least a brief window in the toledo area, potentially impacting
surrounding counties such as wood, ottawa and sandusky as well. rates
will gradually become less impressive to the southeast, though may
briefly reach 0.5" per hour with the initial east-northeast moving
band of snow as far southeast as roughly a mt gilead-akron-warren
type line. snow rates overnight tonight into early sunday will mainly
be less than 0.5" per hour, though precipitation will take on a bit of
a convective component late tonight into sunday morning ahead of the
cold front so some briefer bursts of modestly higher rates are not
impossible. warm air aloft will tickle locations south of a marion-
warren line late tonight into early sunday, which may allow just a bit
of sleet to mix in. surface temperatures will also be warming by then
and any sleet looks brief, so it shouldn`t be too impactful and did
not include in the forecast. snow will likely mix with some "plain
rain" sunday morning ahead of the cold front as surface temperatures
briefly spike into the mid-upper 30s, especially outside of the toledo
area and outside of the higher terrain in northeast oh/northwest pa,
before cold air advection kicks in behind the cold front, leading to
steady or slowly falling temperatures through the afternoon.

total snow amounts through sunday morning of 5-7" remain for lucas
county, with 3-5" across the rest of the winter weather advisory area
across northwest ohio. a note, toledo express airport has not
recorded a 4"+ snow since january 25, 2023 or a 6"+ snow since
february 2-3, 2022. the period of heavy rates expected this evening
will lead to very difficult travel conditions in the toledo area. this
may be a bit of a shock to the system for residents there after
lacking a 4"+ snowfall the last two winters, even if it`s a struggle
to quite get to the technical 6" warning criteria in lucas county.
elsewhere, amounts of 1-3" are in the forecast farther east/southeast,
highest in the higher terrain of the snowbelt and diminishing to near
or slightly under 1" towards mt vernon, canton and youngstown.
anywhere across the area can experience some slick spots when snow
comes down and potentially accumulates on area roadways tonight.

after a relative dry break behind the cold front later sunday morning
into sunday afternoon, a secondary surface trough and vort max will
cross sunday evening. this may bring a few flurries or snow showers
area-wide, with some lake enhancement bringing locally up to a couple
inches in the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt. while an
overall light amount of precip/snow, this could lead to slick
conditions as air temperatures fall below freezing and into the 20s
sunday evening and night. lows by monday morning will range from the
upper 20s in northwest and central ohio to the mid 20s near lake erie.

wind gusts will increase out of the south late tonight into sunday
morning, with a brief push of strong west-southwest winds along and
just behind the cold front sunday morning into the afternoon. in
general, 30-40 mph gust wording will handle this. downslope winds in
erie county pa may briefly exceed 40 mph early sunday morning. the
strong push of winds along and just behind the cold front may also
briefly exceed 40 mph across northwest ohio and then near the lake
erie shoreline farther east. for now no wind advisories are behind
issued, though will need to monitor the eastern lakeshore forecast
zones in particular for marginal wind advisory potential, mainly just
behind the cold front. a brief window of blowing snow is possible late
tonight as wind gusts increase and before the period of above-
freezing temperatures makes the snow on the ground less blowable.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
high pressure slides through on monday, leading to a brief period of
dry and quiet weather with high temperatures remaining colder than
average in the low to mid 30s.

the next system will bring some snow to the area overnight monday
night into tuesday, with some minor lake effect lingering into tuesday
night across the snowbelt. while the amount of snow accumulation is
somewhat uncertain (but more likely on the lighter side), there is
increasing confidence (70-80%) in much of the area seeing measurable
snow. this snow will largely hit monday night into early tuesday with
air and ground temperatures expected to be well-below freezing. this
will lead to a likelihood of snow accumulation on roadways (especially
those that aren`t treated) and potential impacts to the tuesday
morning commute, even if we only see a light overall accumulation.

a trough will eject out into the plains sunday night into monday, with
two shortwaves expected to phase over the midwest monday into monday
evening within this trough. this will allow the trough to gradually
sharpen as it lifts east-northeast across the ohio valley and southern
great lakes monday night into early tuesday, with some interaction
also expected between the trough and the sub-tropical jet stream by
tuesday. disagreement among guidance lies both in how well the two
shortwaves phase over the midwest on monday and in how much
interaction occurs between our trough and the sub-tropical jet late
monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf remains generally less phased
overall, depicting a more progressive system with lighter qpf/snow in
our forecast area. the nam is the most aggressive all around, and does
not have much support from other global models or ensembles. the gfs
and cmc offer more of a middle ground, with somewhat more interaction
with the sub-tropical jet late monday night into tuesday across the
area. the difference between these solutions would be a light, sub-
advisory (likely 2 inches or less for most) from the unphased ecmwf
idea to a solid accumulating snow (perhaps 2 to 4 inches for most) if
a gfs/cmc like middle ground pans out. the nam offers potential for
more snow, potentially 6"+, but only a couple of ensemble members
depict similar situations with that amount of snow above the 90th
percentile of the current envelope. in general, have seen the european
and its ensemble trend slightly more amplified in recent runs while
the nam (and to a lesser extent the gfs) trend a bit flatter. it seems
like models are trying to converge towards the middle ground
solution, though further time to trend remains.

the take-home message at this point is that odds of an accumulating
snow that has some travel impacts overnight monday night into tuesday
morning are increasing. confidence in exact amounts remains lower,
though odds for over 1" across the area per latest nbm guidance are
60-80% (slightly lower north/higher south) with odds for over 4"
generally 20-40%, highest south/east. some potential for advisories
is on the table if we trend towards the somewhat snowier solution.

lows monday night will generally be in the mid 20s, with highs on
tuesday in the low to mid 30s. lows tuesday night will range from the
mid-upper 10s across most inland locales to the mid 20s near the
eastern lakeshore.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
the next cold front crosses wednesday night into thursday, bringing
potential for a few snow showers area-wide followed by some lake
effect amid west-northwest winds to the snowbelt. this looks like a
quick hit, with high pressure quickly building in thursday night.
however, 850mb temperatures briefly falling to -15c to -17c (per the
ecmwf and cmc) could allow for a relatively short window of somewhat
impactful, fluffy lake effect. the next system approaches from the
west to end the week, but significant uncertainty is present on model
guidance regarding both the progression east of that trough and how
cold it remains ahead of it over the eastern/northeastern u.s.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
heaviest snow showers are nearly out of the local area with the
majority of taf sites rebounding to vfr. light snow showers will
return from west to east over the next few hours bringing a
return to mvfr cigs/vis areawide. these snow showers will
transition to a rain/snow mix between 09z/sun and 13z/sun. a
cold front crosses eastward which will allow for remaining
rain/snow showers to diminish between 13z/sun and 15z/sun. mvfr
to ifr ceilings are expected to linger behind the cold front
through the taf window. lingering surface troughing will allow
for lake effect snow showers to develop downwind of lake erie
near the end of the taf window. have a prob30 for reductions to
cig/vis in lake effect snow showers at keri late sunday
afternoon.

southeasterly surface winds generally 10-15 knots sustained
with gusts 20-25 knots. ahead of the cold front(~10z/sun), winds
shift southerly and increase to 15-20 knots sustained with
gusts to 25-30 knots. behind the cold front winds turn westerly
and remain elevated sunday morning and afternoon. peak wind
gusts are expected to occur between 15z/sun and 21z/sun with
gusts 30-35 knots possible during this time frame. wind speeds
remain elevated but will decrease slightly as a narrow ridge of
high pressure begins to spread overhead near the end of the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr with periodic precip, mainly in the form of
snow, are expected sunday afternoon through this thursday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory in effect for nearshore u.s. waters:
- from 7 pm today to 1 am est monday from maumee bay to reno
beach
- from 7 pm today to 4 am sunday from reno beach to willowick
- from 10 pm today to 7 am sunday from willowick to ripley

gale warning in effect for u.s. waters:
- from 4 am sunday to 4 pm sunday from reno beach to vermilion
- from 4 am sunday to 7 pm sunday from vermilion to willowick
- from 7 am sunday to 1 am monday from willowick to buffalo

low water advisory in effect for u.s. waters:
- from 3 am sunday to 10 pm sunday from maumee bay to vermilion

a low will deepen, overall, as it moves from near the ia/mo
border to southwestern quebec late this afternoon through sunset
sunday evening. this low track will allow an occluded front to
sweep e`ward across lake erie between roughly daybreak and early
afternoon on sunday. primarily se`erly to s`erly winds around 5
to 15 knots late this afternoon will freshen to around 15 to 25
knots this evening. accordingly, waves will build to as large as
4 to 7 feet in open u.s. waters, but remain 3 feet or less in
nearshore u.s. waters due to the short fetch. between midnight
and daybreak sunday morning, winds will become s`erly to sw`erly
and freshen to around 25 to 35 knots. waves will build to as
large as 5 to 11 feet in open u.s. waters and 5 feet or less in
nearshore u.s. waters. the largest nearshore waves are expected
around 5 nm offshore given forecast fetch. on sunday, sw`erly
winds as strong as 30 to 40 knots veer to w`erly as the occluded
front sweeps e`ward across lake erie. waves as large as 5 to 15
feet or so are expected. the largest waves are forecast in the
open waters of the central and eastern basins.

during sunday night, the aforementioned low should wobble
ne`ward to near the mouth of the st. lawrence river and weaken
as a ridge overspreads lake erie from the north-central united
states. w`erly winds around 25 to 35 knots, initially, become
w`erly to nw`erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots by daybreak monday.
simultaneously, initial waves as large as 5 to 15 feet should
subside gradually to 4 feet or less. on monday, the ridge is
expected to move e`ward across lake erie and allow w`erly to
nw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to back to s`erly. any
lingering 4 footers should subside to 3 feet or less by late
morning.

during monday night through tuesday, a low should deepen as it
wobbles ne`ward from the northwestern gulf to atlantic waters
near the delmarva peninsula and extends a trough over lake erie.
winds around 5 to 15 knots should vary between s`erly and
nw`erly over the lake as waves remain 3 feet or less. on
tuesday night through wednesday, another ridge should build from
the lower oh valley and vicinity as a cold front approaches
lake erie from the northwest. during tuesday night, the
interaction between the building ridge and frontal trough should
allow primarily nw`erly winds to back toward sw`erly and
freshen to around 10 to 20 knots as waves build to as large as 4
feet (largest waves expected in open waters of the central
basin). on wednesday, the continued interaction between the
building ridge and frontal trough should allow sw`erly winds to
freshen further to 20 to 30 knots as waves build to as large as
5 to 10 feet. forecast trends will be monitored for the need of
a small craft advisory.

the cold front should sweep se`ward across lake erie wednesday
night. sw`erly winds around 20 to 30 knots and waves as large as
5 to 10 feet are expected ahead of the front. behind the front,
w`erly to nw`erly winds should ease gradually to around 10 to
20 knots overnight wednesday night through thursday as a ridge
builds from the upper midwest. waves should subside gradually to
5 feet or less by sunset thursday evening.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for ohz003.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est sunday for ohz006>008-
017-018-027.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lez142.
low water advisory from 3 am to 10 pm est sunday for
lez142>144-162>164.
small craft advisory until 4 am est sunday for lez143>146.
gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est sunday for lez143-144-163-
164.
gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est sunday for lez145-146-165-
166.
small craft advisory until 7 am est sunday for lez147>149.
gale warning from 7 am sunday to 1 am est monday for
lez147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...13
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1130 pm est sat nov 29 2025

.key messages...

- widespread snow will persist through sunday morning w/
significant accumulations expected.

- snow will begin diminishing in coverage and intensity
overnight, but lake effect snow showers are expected to
develop again on sunday with some additional travel impacts
expected.

- another round of light snow is possible monday night into early
tuesday followed by a stronger intrusion of cold air later in
the week.

&&

.update...
issued at 707 pm est sat nov 29 2025

snow amounts so far have been right around what was expected.
area of better instability aloft is moving into the region so
precip is transitioning to more banded/cellular and that will
continue through 06z. convection well to our south is
interrupting northward moisture transport a bit but there are
still pockets of heavy snow moving into our area through 06z.
after 06z, midlevel moisture will be lost and surface temps will
climb just above freezing in our se half. thus, precip will
transition to drizzle before ending from west to east in the
06-12z window. overall forecast remains on track and only minor
updates to slightly lower overnight total snow amounts. still
expecting a brief window of favorable lake effect parameters
roughly 15z-00z sunday which could easily drop another 2-5" in
our nw zones yielding storm total amounts over a foot. also
added a blowing snow mention. already getting reports of
blowing/drifting snow and wind speeds will only increase through
sunday. no changes to headlines at this point.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm est sat nov 29 2025

the inherited forecast remains very much on track w/ minimal changes
necessary to ongoing messaging. snow has already overspread much of
the area this afternoon and will likely continue to increase in
intensity over the next several hours. heaviest snowfall still seems
likely to occur in the 21z to 06z time frame as a strong vort energy
and mid-level speed max interact with broad, intense isentropic lift
across a large portion of the cwa. greatest accumulations should be
found north of us-24 with a rather sharp gradient expected to the
south courtesy of the impressive low-level warm air advection regime
potentially allowing rain to mix in with the snow for a time, which
would significantly impact total accumulations. naturally, this will
also influence the character of the snow which is expected to be
very heavy and wet, especially later in the event with the main waa
push. slrs will transition from near 12:1 early to around 8:1 late
this evening. a short burst of convectively enhanced heavy
snowfall rates (thundersnow cannot be entirely ruled out) may
occur during the mid/late evening hours w/ the main push of warm
advection aloft. overall, still looking at decent probabilities
of 6-10 inches of total (system) snowfall accumulation mainly
focused along/north of us-24. localized lake effect bands on
sunday may push total accumulations into the 12-14 inch range
closer to lake michigan.

please refer to the previous forecast discussion for a more detailed
meteorological overview. /hammer

previous discussion (issued 414 am est sat nov 29 2025):

just some minor forecast changes made this morning, but overall
messaging remains intact with period of heaviest snowfall and
greatest impacts late this afternoon into this evening. the winter
storm warning and winter weather advisories areas remain intact with
some minor adjustments to ending times of the headlines on sunday.
winter storm warning headlines continue into sunday afternoon mainly
for lake effect snow favored areas in phase 2 of this system.

a quick ramp-up of isentropic ascent is expected through the
remainder of the morning hours. an expansive precip shield has
already developed across the lower/mid ms river valley this morning.
near term progs of 290k surface depict strongest isentropic lift
across northern missouri/west central illinois as of 08z. short term
progs take zone of strongest ascent on this surface into northwest
indiana/southwest lower michigan by 18z. track of this
advective/isentropic forcing may be a little more muted across far
southeast portions of the forecast area this afternoon. initial low
level thermal/moisture profiles and 285k condensation pressure
deficit analysis suggests that this saturation process could take a
bit longer than previously expected, particularly across eastern
half/southeast portions of the forecast area where isentropic
forcing is slightly weaker. have made some minor adjustments to
start time of headlines (pushed back 3 hours across the east),
although snow accumulations across northwest ohio may not occur
until the mid afternoon hours today. some localized low level fgen
at nose of stronger low level flow could enhance late morning
through mid afternoon snow accumulations for some areas west of i-69.

guidance has been fairly consistent with handling of this system
although some slight dprog/dt trends could have an impact. some
guidance appears a bit more disjointed in handling of mid/upper
level system, with a likely diabatically generated mid level pv
anomaly pushing through this afternoon deriving from ongoing mo/il
precip. a tendency to perhaps slightly less phasing of primary
synoptic trough and this diabatically generated interior anomaly
appears to be trending solution to slightly weaker (albeit still
quite strong) kinematic fields and consequently just slightly weaker
northward moisture transport. latest suite of guidance also may not
be quite as supportive for csi type banding given some weaker
unidirectional mid level wind shear resulting from the above
guidance trends. nonetheless, very strong advective fields and
increasing synoptic scale support via primary upper trough and left
exit region of central conus upper jet streak should support
greatest snowfall rates in the 21z-02z time period this evening. 00z
href suite also points to this time period as greatest probs of
experiencing 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates for a time. the strong
warm/moist advection will result in a highly elevated dgz, although
with some respectable depth of 3-5k feet in the mid levels across
far nw in/sw lower michigan. however, overall snow efficiency still
appears to be limited with this system across most of the area given
strongest lift in lower reaches of dgz and more limited time window
of better dgz moisture quality. event average 9-12 snow to liquid
ratio was maintained in this forecast with warning level snow
amounts dependent on the high qpf nature of this system. some
concern that relatively narrow window of strongest forcing
mechanisms late afternoon/evening and inefficient snow production
could lead to lower than forecasted snow amounts, particularly east
of i-69. at this time have made only minor adjustments to forecasted
snow amounts through tonight, with just a slightly lower trend in
most places. highest accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through 12z
sunday are still forecasted for northwest third of the area where
some cross-hair signature of mid level lift/dgz is noted in forecast
time/height sections. some consideration given to transitioning the
warning to an advisory south of us route 24 across far northeast
indiana/northwest ohio but will allow dayshift to assess trends this
morning.

a mid level dry slot still looks to overspread the area overnight
into early sunday morning, with a quick tapering of snow across most
of the area and a likely transition to light snow/areas of drizzle
with drying dgz and near sfc wet bulbs warming to near freezing
across south/southeast areas. a quick transition to stronger low
level caa ensues for sunday morning and afternoon as stronger upper
vort lobe drops across the southern great lakes. this should allow
for at least a 6 to 9 hour period of favorable lake effect snow
showers for additional accumulations/impacts with gusty caa-induced
winds also expected. some higher res guidance also suggests
potential of mesovort-type feature to accompany a sharper low level
trough passage across southern lake michigan sunday morning/midday.
have maintained the winter storm warning headline into sunday
afternoon for areas possibly impacted by lake effect snow, and have
expired the warning by 15z sunday for remainder of the area. this
timing may need to be moved up further as most of the synoptic
accumulating snow could depart after 09z sunday morning. lake effect
snow showers should wane sunday evening.

monday will feature quiet conditions as a progressive low level
anticyclone sweeps across the area, but attention quickly turns to a
lower amplitude fast moving system for monday night/early tuesday.
primary low level baroclinic zone and better moisture will be
initially suppressed well south, but a period of northward moisture
transport is expected across the ohio valley ahead of this system.
guidance differs with details in the amplitude of this wave and
northward extent of sfc reflection/moisture return. even if a more
suppressed sfc reflection verifies, would expect a strong mid level
baroclinic zone to be in place locally, with fgen band likely to
affect area with some additional snow accumulations monday
night/early tuesday that could bring an additional 1-3" of snow
across the area. thus, have accepted the sharp ramp-up in pops for
this period suggested by the model blended guidance.

no major changes to the extended forecast at this time with fuller
latitude longwave trough bringing stronger cold frontal push for the
wed-thu timeframe. some single digit lows are possible thursday
night under the influence of sfc high pressure, also aided by
potential of some light additional fresh snowcover with the frontal
forcing. some moderation in temperatures is possible by next
weekend, but still below normal for early december. /marsili

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1130 pm est sat nov 29 2025

system snow associated with strong isentropic ascent in the warm
sector of passing low is now exiting and weakening. midlevel dry
slot will move over the area in the 06-09z window and bring an
end to moderate/heavy snow with slowly improving visibilities.
(some ifr stratus will still be possible through the early
morning, though.) lake effect snow showers are then expected at
ksbn for much of the day, though there will be break at times
with some uncertainty on exact timing and strength of lake
effect snow. lake effect snow showers may impact kfwa during the
afternoon as well but confidence is much lower there. both sites
will trend toward vfr by sunday evening as dry air finally
advects back into the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm warning until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ sunday for
inz005>008-012-014-103-104-116-203-204.
winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for inz009-013-015-
017-018-020-022>027-032>034-216.
oh...winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est sunday for ohz025.
mi...winter storm warning until 7 pm est sunday for miz078>080-177-
277.
winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for miz081.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am est monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...agd
discussion...hammer
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
346
fxus63 kdtx 300837
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
337 am est sun nov 30 2025

.key messages...

- a winter storm warning and winter weather advisory are in effect
thru 10 am. additional accumulation of up to 2 inches through the
morning hours.

- below normal temperatures continue through next week. highs in the
20s and overnight lows in the teens will be prevalent from monday
onward.

- light accumulating snow is forecast monday night and tuesday
morning with 1 to 2 inches possible for metro detroit and areas
south.

- dusting of snowfall or light snow accumulation will possible late
wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.discussion...

early morning surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low centered over
southern lake michigan, accelerating to the northeast in response to
the arrival of the main height fall center associated with
broadening longwave troughing. ongoing widespread area of light
intensity accumulating snow featured along the eastern flank and
within a broad region of ascent will maintain residence for several
more hours. noted brief uptick in forcing also materializes invof of
the sfc low and trailing frontal zone mid-late morning. this will
yield a longer duration window for additional accumulation mainly
from flint to the thumb and points northwestward. an additional one
to two inches of accumulation thru the morning, higher totals north
of metro detroit. ongoing winter headlines will remain in place
through the duration to capture the backend response.

brief period of drying offers some reduction in moisture depth
within the immediate wake of the lead cold front for midday.
limited cold air advection with this feature will sustain a
temperature near freezing. secondary stronger cold front forecast to
track north to south between 19z and 23z. narrow axis of greater
moisture quality along the advancing convergence zone will bring a
brief increase in snow shower potential during this time. best
ascent focused east of i-75 and north of detroit, with additional
accumulation of an inch or less mainly focused across the thumb
region. firm west-northwest gradient in the wake of the low, with
modest improvement in mixing depth within the backdrop of ongoing
weak caa affording daylight gustiness into the 30 mph range.

turning notably colder and drier tonight as northwest flow increases
depth along the downstream flank of inbound high pressure. model
guidance consensus lends support toward greater nocturnal clearing.
forecast tentatively highlights this potential, while acknowledging
the possibility for some degree of ongoing lake moisture flux to
allow some lake cloud to drift into portions of the area overnight.
assuming a meaningful window of clear sky to capitalize on the fresh
snow cover, then monday morning lows will arrive a solid 10+ degrees
below normal with values well in teens. this means a cold start to
the work week with highs again below average monday. benign wx
throughout the monday period with conditions governed by weak low
and mid level ridging.

next chance of light accumulating snow arrives monday night. a
stronger mid level wave noted on water vapor entering the pacific
northwest and additional minor shortwave energy still over british
columbia will progressively track across the conus in tandem over
the next 48 hours. fairly strong consensus still that these features
will maintain just enough separation through at least the se mi
latitude. this favors a more muted overall response locally, as
favorable upper jet positioning and associated deeper forced ascent
target the ohio valley. gradual moistening process through sustained
yet weak isentropic ascent will work against a very dry ambient
profile. assuming sufficient column saturation /most questionable
north/, then supportive environment exists for a light qpf event to
materialize overnight. highest probability outcome for a range in
accumulation from .5 to 2 inches, with highest amounts focused south
of i-94.

stretch of seasonably cold temperatures firmly entrenched heading
into the midweek period. arctic cold front tied to a vort max
sweeping across the northern great lakes will effectively reinforce
this early december cold. coldest conditions noted thursday and
friday, as highs hold in the 20s while overnight minimum wind chill
dips below zero friday morning. the late day frontal passage
wednesday offers potential for snow shower production, albeit again
working with a generally lean moisture profile. closed low churning
over the southwest conus will eventually eject downstream and may
offer a greater opportunity for accumulating snow friday night, but
still plenty of variance within the ensemble solution space with the
treatment of the governing dynamics.

&&

.marine...

mature low pressure lifts northeast across lake huron into the
georgian bay/ontario over the course of the morning. this results in
veering winds across the southern great lakes from south-southeast
early this morning to the west-southwest by late morning. while a
few gusts to around gales are possible over these waters through the
morning, particularly lake erie, shift to offshore flow keeps better
gale potential out over the open waters. wind shift does however
lead to a rapid drop in water across the western erie basin with low
water advisories in effect through the bulk of today. as the low
departs for ontario, a secondary arctic cold front is drawn over the
central great lakes resulting in a sharp rise in northwesterly winds
by afternoon. 35-40kt gales remain likely across the central and
southern waters of lake huron into early this evening. a sporadic
gust to near gales is possible over far northern lake huron and the
saginaw bay however potential duration is too marginal to include in
the current gale warnings. for the remainder of the region, gusts
peak around 30kts.

sprawling ridge of high pressure aggressively builds in tonight
supporting diminishing winds. high center is set to swing across the
ohio valley monday maintaining light flow for the southern half of
the central lakes. as for the northern, broad low pressure over the
hudson bay compresses the gradient across the northern great lakes
preventing a true relaxation of the wind field resulting in
persistent southwest gusts up near 20kts monday/monday night. a
system trailing the high crosses the ohio valley late monday-tuesday
offering light snow chances but otherwise brings minimal local
marine impacts. next significant system arrives wednesday as a
strong arctic cold front drops out of northern ontario resulting in
both strong preceding southwest winds and trailing northwesterly
winds as the coldest air of the season thus far moves over the great
lakes.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1200 am est sun nov 30 2025

aviation...

snow continues across the terminals tonight with visibilities in the
ifr to lifr range, dependent on snowfall rates. visibilities will
gradually improve through the early morning hours as snowfall trends
lighter, and eventually becomes more scattered. potential persists
for a precipitation type changeover from all snow to a
snow/sleet/rain mix around sunrise for dtw/det/yip as drier air
expands downward from the mid-levels and the surface layer warms to
around or slightly above freezing, after winds take on a southerly
direction. ceilings should continue to remain low mvfr to ifr until
mid-morning while visibilities improve due to reduced snowflake size
and intensity. wind speeds are expected to increase this morning
with a rising gust component into the 20 knot range. the surface low
exits into lake huron this afternoon prior to the cold front
dropping through which veers winds westerly. gusts could peak near
30 knots. a few lake effect snow showers are possible sunday, but
coverage still looks low through the evening hours, before low
clouds begin to scatter out. high pressure starts to build in from
the eastern plains sunday evening.

for dtw... ifr to lifr conditions until sunday morning with
continued snowfall of varying intensity. a brief changeover from all
snow to a snow/sleet/rain mix is possible, generally between 10z and
12z before precipitation tapers off. gusty winds should avoid
directional concerns for crosswinds operations.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through sunday afternoon,
then medium sunday evening.

* low for visibility at or below 1/2 sm through 09z.

* high in precipitation type as snow through 10z sunday, then low to
medium from 10z to 12z, then high again for lake effect snowfall
the rest of the day.

* low for crosswind exceedence sunday afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm warning until 10 am est this morning for miz047-048-
053-060-068-075-082.

winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz049-054-
055-061>063-069-070-076-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz362-363-441-462>464.

small craft advisory until 7 am est monday for lhz421-442-443.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lhz422.

small craft advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for lhz441.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......kdk
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.