Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
004
fxus61 kcle 161150
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
750 am edt wed sep 16 2026

.what has changed...
there is now a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms and a
slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for locations
roughly along and south of us-30.

.key messages...

1) periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through thursday as
a front wavers across the ohio valley.

2) unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. heavy
rainfall and localized flooding are possible on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the region
today. showers and thunderstorms over lake erie will eventually move
onshore early this morning and sink south across northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through this morning. the front will stall
south of the forecast area this evening with additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms continuing as shortwaves aloft move over
the region. there remains some potential for an isolated strong to
severe storm along and south of us-30 this afternoon and evening.
spc has placed that portion of the forecast area in the swody1
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the threat of damaging wind gusts.
hard to flush out specifics regarding timing and placement of
additional rounds beyond this evening given discrepancies within the
various 00z cams. maintained at least a chance pop in the forecast
with this update.

additionally, heavy rainfall remains a threat as showers and storms
train over the same locations and with area pwats rising into the
2.0-2.25 inch range. wpc has included the southern half of the
forecast area in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall
today. both the href and refs lpmm/pmm highlight the potential for a
locally higher swath of heavy rainfall along the us 30 corridor.

the front will sag south during the day thursday as canadian high
pressure builds overhead from the north. the forecast is continuing
to trend drier thursday night through friday.

key message 2...
high pressure exits to the east saturday as a low moves east across
the upper midwest into the great lakes. the low will lift a warm
front northeast across the region saturday before another cold front
sinks southeast saturday night into sunday. main concern for this
timeframe will be the heavy rainfall threat. area pwats remain high
with the potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall across lower michigan
into northern ohio. wpc has maintained a slight risk (level 2 of 4)
across the western half of the forecast area for saturday.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
as one batch of showers and some embedded thunderstorms exits
east into western pennsylvania, a larger area of rain and some
embedded thunderstorms is congealing over western ohio and
indiana. this will spread east this morning but may wane a bit
in intensity as it enters our more stable airspace. this batch
of rain and its remnants will usher in lowering ceilings across
the area with most locations getting to mvfr. outside of
nowcasting current convection, it is hard to pinpoint how much,
if any, ts will develop later this afternoon and evening and
have left out of the tafs due to low confidence. however,
additional rain activity will be expected this afternoon with
some amount of mvfr impacts. tonight, the front will sag south
and allow a slightly cooler air mass into the area. this will
allow for the overnight batch of rain to potentially lower
ceilings further into the ifr range for some folks. winds are
starting generally southerly to easterly but will shift around
to the north to northeast through the day with the front sagging
southward.

outlook...non-vfr possible at times in scattered showers/storms
through thursday night. non-vfr possible with showers and
thunderstorms saturday into sunday.

&&

.marine...
flow will oscillate between northerly to northeasterly while
remaining between 10-15 knots today through thursday. northerly
onshore flow increases to 12-18 knots thursday night into friday
which may briefly lead to choppy conditions across nearshore zones
in the central basin. friday evening into sunday winds will waver
between easterly to northeasterly at 12-18 knots. wave heights may
build to 2-4 feet across the nearshore zones in the eastern basin on
sunday under northwest flow 15-20 knots. numerous rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across the lake now through
thursday and again saturday into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
749
fxus63 kiwx 161517
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1117 am edt wed sep 16 2026

.key messages...

- humid with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
thursday, best chances this morning, and then again later
tonight into thursday morning (50-80%).

- locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible today into thursday.

- dry and less humid conditions on friday followed by renewed
opportunties for rain and storms this weekend.

&&

.update...
issued at 1112 am edt wed sep 16 2026

area of rain continues to move east with overall intensity
slowly on the decrease. a few storms remain moving across wells
and adams county where a flash flood warning was issued given
the swath of 2 to close to 4 inches of rain in southern parts of
these areas. once this area shifts east over the next couple of
hours, models seem to agree on any additional development to be
limited near after 18z through 5z thu. plan to maintain some
slight chc or chc pops as i wouldn`t be surprised to see a
pop up or 2 in this period. vis sat and obs shows some things
spots or limited clearing back across central il that will work
east. this could potentially increase the threat for additional
development in southern area.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 207 am edt wed sep 16 2026

a frontal boundary and ~2 inch pwat axis will hover in west to
east fashion over the area through at least thursday with
periodic shower/storm chances. locally heavy rainfall/flash
flooding will be the primary concern given the high moisture
content and potential for several rounds of slow moving
convection.

favorable right entrance region upper support, in conjunction
with an incoming convectively augmented mid level impulse
(potential mcv), should keep at least scattered convection in
the vicinity of the theta-e ridge this morning, especially
across northern in and northwest oh. rainfall rates have been
impressive (over an inch in 10-15 minutes), so will continue to
monitor flooding going forward.

weak height rises on the northern fringes of a stout upper level
ridge suggest some overall subsidence this afternoon into this
evening. held with lower pops as a result during this time, but
still cannot rule out widely scattered convection within any pockets
of greater heating, mainly near the us 24 corridor. later tonight
into thursday morning then features increasing chances for
another round of storms and potential hydro issues as renewed
warm advection ensues within another low level jet.

the bulk of available model guidance does push the effective frontal
zone off to south-southwest by thursday night into friday with brief
dry and less humid conditions. rain/storm chances then return
this weekend as piecemeal shortwave energy ejects east out of
the intermountain west, forcing the boundary and instability
axis back north into the lower great lakes.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 536 am edt wed sep 16 2026

smaller scale, convectively enhanced, mid level impulses will drive
waves of convection through northern in this morning. this
activity will remain along and north of a frontal zone
stalled out over the area. high moisture content will continue
to induce locally heavy rainfall rates and brief times of
lifr/ifr visby`s, especially in and around kfwa. coverage of
rain and embedded storms should wane this afternoon with mvfr to
low vfr stratocu likely filling in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
953
fxus63 kdtx 161047
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
647 am edt wed sep 16 2026

.key messages...

- rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the midweek period.

- the weekend indicates showery weather but mild temperatures
saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a mix of mvfr ceiling and fog follows passage of the cold front
early this morning. brief ifr ceiling/fog is quickly lifting as wind
direction flips ne and surface td drops below 60. mvfr fog is
equally brief, however mvfr ceiling has greater staying power
through the morning at mbs and into the afternoon toward dtw, closer
to the cold front as it moves into ontario/northern ohio. the dtw
corridor also has the best chance for a shower or rumble of thunder
throughout the day. ongoing activity is expected to hold on while
tracking in from northern indiana, then predictability on timing
decreases this afternoon. farther north, the inbound high pressure
air mass has just enough dry air to combine with daytime heating and
nudge the borderline mvfr/vfr cloud edge south of mbs mid to late
afternoon.

thunderstorms are most active along the surface front stalled across
central in/oh tonight, however a more elevated pattern of showers
with a rumble of thunder continues with scattered coverage over the
dtw corridor. there is a chance activity expands northward toward
fnt later in the night. persistence and/or northward expansion of
mvfr ceiling is also an important forecast consideration late
tonight and thursday morning.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for a rumble of thunder
within pockets of showers this morning. thunderstorm potential then
has lower predictability on timing and location this afternoon as
the cold front moves farther into in/oh.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

* low for thunderstorms this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt wed sep 16 2026

discussion...

very strong h5 599 dam mid-upper level high pressure over southeast
us will slowly retrograde to portions of east texas and ok by
friday. the upper level jet axis over eastern canada will be slow to
move which will keep the baroclinic zone in relatively close
proximity to southeast michigan through at least the end of the week
and beginning of the upcoming weekend.

for today, plan view perspective of thetae shows the near surface
extension of the frontal zone slipping southward to the ohio border
while the 900-700mb frontal surface remains farther north between
the i 96-i 69 corridors. differences exist with regards to the north
south extent of shower/convective development later today. consensus
of many of the models including namnest and hrdps initiates deep
convection to the south of in/oh state line, whereas the ecmwf
brings qpf (from weaker elevated showers) much father north through
much of southeast michigan. system relative flow trajectories
highlight a coherent 925-850mb cyclonic circulation emerging today
near south bend that will track eastward increasing convergence.
models suggest shower activity approaching after 14z with spotty
activity in an around the area this afternoon. out of respect for
the elevated portion of the frontal zone and the progged
convergence, will keep inherited broad brushed pops.

despite little north to south movement of the upper level jet axis,
the entrance region and confluence aloft will support stable surface
high pressure late thursday and friday. strong likelihood that
increasing anticyclonic flow trajectories will result in lower
dewpoints into the 50s. a comfortable couple of days.

right entrance region to very large jet entrance brings the
potential for upstream convection to ride eastward through lower
michigan. there has been a subset of solutions that have a mcs
developing over the plains states friday and arriving over southeast
michigan midday saturday. breadth of synoptic scale forcing with
time of year suggests heavy rainfall potential. the latest excessive
rainfall outlook products have been highlighting a slight risk for a
good portion of southeast michigan. given the structure an
organization of the thetae ridge a wave will act upon, the setup
looks good. the current forecast as 80-90% pops for saturday.
another trough structure does look to suppress heights and cause a
cold front to slip southward for sunday.

marine...

a weak cold front gradually settles across the southern great lakes
this morning, shifting wind direction to north and northeast in its
wake with brief gustiness to around 15-20 kt over lake huron. high
pressure passes across the northern great lakes today, favoring
lighter winds and dry weather through the afternoon. the cold front
stalls near the southern great lakes this evening, sustaining a
chance for showers and storms mainly near lake erie into tonight and
thursday. the gradient strengthens thursday evening as another area
of high pressure builds into northern ontario, producing an uptick
in northerly winds early friday morning. given the long fetch into
southern lake huron, will monitor the need for a small craft
advisory for high waves reaching the nearshore waters friday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...cb
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.