Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
651 pm edt tue oct 27 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from
isolated rain showers thursday night, will continue through
saturday.

2) rain chances return sunday and into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure displaced just to our north will gradually drift
eastward toward the east coast on wednesday and thursday.
southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring
well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in
40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on
thursday (see climate section below).

a low pressure system located well to the north near the georgian
bay will bring a cold front across the area thursday night.
moisture will be severely lacking and weak forcing will limit
rain potential, with only isolated rain showers expected
thursday night. rain chances are bit higher (40-50%) in erie, pa
where lake erie may provide a bit more low-level
moisture/convergence.

high pressure builds back in friday and saturday, and ushering
"cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the
60s and lows in the 40s/50s.

key message 2...
as high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift
brings rain chances back sunday and into early next week.
ensemble qpf mean calls for around 0.25" with very low
probabilities of an isolated 1", which means this rain won`t be
very impactful. however, long-range ensemble guidance is hinting
at a potential pattern shift with rain chances continuing next
week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions will continue through wednesday as high pressure
lingers over the area. northeast winds of 3-8 knots will become
light and variable over the next few hours. by early afternoon
on wednesday, winds will have shifted to become southwesterly at
3-9 knots through the end of the period. bkn high ceilings are
expected to spread across the entire area but will not impact
aviation conditions.

outlook...primarily vfr expected through saturday.

&&

.marine...
northeast to east winds 10-15 knots will continue today with wave
heights 1-3 ft decreasing to 1 ft by tonight. high pressure
returns wednesday as winds become light and variable. southerly
to southwesterly winds increase to 10-15 knots wednesday night
into thursday before become northwest and northerly thursday
night following a cold frontal passage. there may be a brief
period of 2-4 waves thursday morning, especially in the central
basin. otherwise, high pressure brings light and variable winds
on friday, becoming easterly by saturday.

&&

.climate...
we are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on
thursday. here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on october 29th:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...04
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
727 pm edt tue oct 27 2026

.key messages...

- patchy to areas of fog again possible but this time mainly for
northwest oh and northeastern in locations

- warm and dry conditions persist through tomorrow with highs
generally in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

- light rain is possible on thursday. the best chances (50-80%) will
be near lake michigan.

- better chances for widespread rain arrive on sunday but
forecast confidence for this period is low.

- more active pattern looks to develop next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 234 pm edt tue oct 27 2026

once again looking at the potential for some fog development
overnight tonight with a light easterly wind that may allow for
moisture to advect westward into northwestern oh and
northeastern in locations. patchy to areas of dense fog will be
possible in these locations. subsequent shifts will be
monitoring for this occurrence as there is still some
uncertainty due to winds as if they are lighter than expected
not too much advection will occur but if winds slightly stronger
than more moisture would work it`s way into the area increasing
the chances and locations that may see fog development tonight.


much above normal temperatures look to continue through thursday
but a cool frontal boundary associated with a weak disturbance will
arrive on thursday and begin to push a more zonal synoptic flow
aloft over the region which will also be accompanied by
increasing clouds. highs into the low to mid 70s wednesday and
thursday then highs mainly in the 60s expected each day into
next week with the increase in cloud cover. a few weak
disturbances ripple through the westerly flow bringing chances
for light rain showers on halloween and again on sunday. on
halloween, the better chances will be over the northwestern
portions of the area but amounts look fairly light so likely not
too impactful to any festivities. on sunday, most of the area
will have a chance for some light showers.

sunday into next week a fairly complicated synoptic pattern
looks to converge across the central conus with both a southern
circulation/trof and a northern trof and circulation over
central southern canada. this looks to bring a much active
pattern to the area. latest guidance has a more temporarily
cutoff southern feature due to the lack of phasing but systems
are expected to potentially phase and this could bring a much
colder airmass into the great lakes region later next week. will
be watching to see how this evolves over the next few days as
this looks to be a potentially impactful system.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 726 pm edt tue oct 27 2026

southeast winds prevail during the overnight and this may make fog
possible as trajectories carry the marine air inland. upper cloud
densities lessen through the overnight and cross-over temps become
favorable at fwa meaning the fog possibilities are not
negligible there. however, given these factors, chances are
small enough to not include it in tafs. it is very possible that
fog is more shallow ground fog and only minimally impactful.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
743 pm edt tue oct 27 2026

.key messages...

- dry today with cooler temperatures compared to recent days.

- mild temperatures return through the rest of the week highlighted
by highs around 70 wednesday and in the lower to mid 70s thursday.

- there is a chance of showers thursday afternoon and thursday night.

- dry and continued mild friday.

&&

.aviation...

combination of ese flow off of lake erie/st. clair under a mid-high
cloud deck leads to a tricky fog forecast for tonight. surface
dewpoints still around 50 degrees are expected to be reinforced
throughout the night by lake moisture, which in combination with
nearly calm surface winds should be able to offset the less
efficient cooling potential due to cloud cover. thus the inherited
mvfr restrictions for br wednesday morning are reasonable, mainly
for the detroit vicinity terminals. otherwise, light ese winds will
veer to the sw wednesday while an upper level wave passes through in
the morning. this eventually scours out moisture for the afternoon
leading to clearing skies and another day of quiet weather across
the airspace.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 pm edt tue oct 27 2026

discussion...

high pressure centered over the ontario/quebec border will progress
east/southeast into new england as a shortwave trough moves in from
the central plains into the great lakes. this combination will drive
a warm front across michigan tomorrow with low-level flow veering
from southeast to southwest in the wake of the front. this will usher
in warmer temperatures tomorrow and thursday with forecasted highs
peaking in the 70s. for this evening, stable conditions maintain dry
weather under broken mid to high level cloud cover. overnight, there
is a weak to moderate signal for shallow fog or very low-lying
stratus focused on a convergent boundary as the aforementioned winds
start veering. any fog/stratus would be most prominent around or
near ann arbor and into the urban metro and north metro region,
factoring in shallow moisture advection from lake erie and lake st.
clair. the one caveat for fog development will be the arrival and
thickening of mid-level cloud cover ahead of the approaching
shortwave. some sprinkles or a weak rain shower cannot be ruled out
with the arrival of this wave. some secondary fog chances will be
possible across the tri-cities, coinciding with a brief period of
more effective radiational cooling as the trailing edge of the mid-
level cloud shield exits, but this will trend very close to daybreak.
any fog or shallow stratus will rapidly erode after daybreak under
the established southwest flow.

the next chance for rain showers will enter thursday afternoon and
evening as a cold front progresses across se mi. there will be a
ribbon of enhanced theta-e ahead of the front bringing precipitation
chance for all locations. the better moisture is confined to 925 to
750mb and overall forcing remains weak. this will limit coverage and
will produce weak qpf output for any showers observed, with totals
ranging between trace amounts up to several hundredths of an inch
with any rain observed. otherwise, breezy conditions just ahead and
in the wake of the front with gusts around 25 to 30 mph expected.
passage of the front will moderate temperatures slightly to end the
week but above normal conditions are still expected with highs in the
low to mid 60s. above normal temperatures continue through the
weekend and into early next week.

marine...

east winds to veer southeast to southwest tonight and overnight
after the passage of a warm front. winds generally remain light in
the wake of the front with some localized higher gust found within
the north-central portion of lake huron, where fetch is more
favorable. a cold front is then on track to progress over the great
lakes on thursday which will continue to veer winds from southwest
to northwest. prior to the arrival of the cold front, breezy
southwest flow with gusts around 25 knots will be likely on
thursday, especially through central lake huron. the better gust
potential will then transition towards northern lake huron late
thursday into friday morning as flow veers to the northwest. high
pressure then builds in this weekend, leading to a period of light
winds into early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...am
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.