Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
709
fxus61 kcle 181121
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
721 am edt thu sep 18 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure briefly weakens tonight and friday, allowing a
backdoor cold front to move southwest across the area during the day
friday. high pressure builds back into the northeast for saturday. a
warm front lifts across the area saturday night and sunday.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
warm and quiet persists today as high pressure weakens a bit but
remains in control. as of 2:00 am a small area of dense fog has
developed near the oh/pa border between ashtabula and erie/crawford
counties. expect some expansion of fog through sunrise, particularly
across low-lying portions of northeast oh and northwest pa, though
a bit of patchy fog could fill in across the typical lower-lying/
rural locations and river valleys farther west too. will monitor the
potential need for a special wx statement or (less likely) a dense
fog advisory over the coming hours across parts of northeast oh and
northwest pa if dense fog starts getting more widespread. once fog
lifts by 9 or 10 am this morning, mostly sunny skies are expected
sans some afternoon cumulus. highs will range from the upper 70s in
extreme northeast oh and northwest pa to the mid to upper 80s
towards the i-75 corridor and marion. minimum rh values will fall to
25-35% well-inland from lake erie this afternoon, though with
fairly light north to northwest winds of 50-10 mph. minimum rh
values will stay 40-50% near and east of the lake.

high pressure will break down briefly tonight as a backdoor cold
front drops in from the north, before pushing south-southwest across
the area through friday. some showers/storms will likely develop
well to our north/northwest across northern lower michigan this
afternoon along the front and drop southeast towards northeast
oh/northwest pa the first half of tonight. the expectation is that
the dry and stable airmass locally will lead to this activity
falling apart before it can make it in, precluding a mentionable pop
for showers in the forecast. however, can not totally rule out some
dying sprinkles making it in late this evening from the northwest.
the front itself will reach the southern lake erie shoreline in the
cleveland area around dawn friday. there will likely be some
increase in clouds with the front, but continue to expect a dry
frontal passage overall. lows tonight will stay up a few more
degrees than recent nights, ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
some patchy fog is possible tonight, though it should be limited.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
a backdoor cold front will be pushing onshore from the north-
northeast friday morning, and will push south-southwest across the
area through the afternoon. there will be an increase in clouds
along and behind the front as some modest moist isentropic lift
occurs in the low-mid levels atop the shallow front. some models
suggest a few sprinkles or showers may try developing due to this
isentropic lift in the afternoon across our southern or western
counties closer to the front. continue to run with a dry forecast
for friday given fairly limited amounts of moisture and lift, though
it will be cloudier, somewhat breezier and slightly cooler than
recent days...and can not entirely rule out needing to throw in a
sprinkle mention or slight chance (20%) shower mention if model
agreement improves. either way, nothing impactful/beneficial. highs
on friday will get dialed back a bit due to the increased clouds and
modest push of cold air advection, expected to range from the low-
mid 70s in far northeast oh and northwest pa to the mid 80s towards
findlay and marion. minimum rh values will dip to 30-40% towards
findlay-marion-mt. vernon friday afternoon, but will be higher
elsewhere. winds will turn north-northeast at 7-15 mph.

the backdoor front is expected to stall across western/southern ohio
friday night and saturday before lifting back northeast as a warm
front saturday night into early sunday. dry, mostly clear, and
cooler conditions are expected for friday night as high pressure
builds southeast out of canada and into new england. fog should be
limited to deeper river valleys friday night/early saturday. lows
will dip well into the 40s from interior portions of far northeast
oh into northwest pa. values will trend milder farther west, with
the i-75 corridor struggling to cool past the upper 50s. dry and
warm conditions are forecast for saturday with highs bouncing back
a bit, ranging from the mid 70s in erie to the upper 70s to mid 80s
elsewhere...warmest towards findlay-mt. vernon. minimum rh values
will again dip to 30-40% inland from the lake saturday. will need to
monitor for an isolated shower or storm saturday afternoon or
evening across our southwest counties in closer proximity to the
front, as modest instability combined with lift from a weak
approaching shortwave may interact with the front to allow for some
limited convection to pop. the current forecast is dry as most
models suggest that high pressure anchored to our northeast and dry
air will dominate, but it`s something to monitor. otherwise, dry
weather will persist through saturday night with lows trending
milder as the warm front brings an airmass change and more
clouds...lows are expected to range form the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
more unsettled weather is expected for the long term with
occasional shower/thunder chances returning to the forecast, though
any dents in the developing drought appear more more cosmetic in
nature than anything else.

we will break into the warm sector on sunday as the warm front exits
to the northeast. sunday will be warm and mainly dry, though with
dew points creeping up several degrees towards 60. the grids have a
slight chance (20%) for showers/thunder across most of the area on
sunday, though slight chances are "silent" in forecast products that
far in the future so you won`t see it in the text. the combination
of modest instability, any mesoscale boundaries (such as the lake
breeze), and very weak large scale ascent (evident via subtle 500mb
height falls after 18z) could be enough for a few showers or (non-
severe) storms to pop during the afternoon and early evening. any
activity that develops sunday to our west (closer to the front and
better forcing) may drift in before completely falling apart sunday
night, for which the forecast a 20-40% pop (highest northwest).

the broad pattern for monday and tuesday will feature ridging
persisting across the southeast as troughing digs into the plains
states, with a weak shortwave working across the great lakes ahead
of the larger trough diving into the plains. we are expected to
remain in the open warm sector for monday and most of tuesday given
ridging holding strong over the southeast. the trough over the
plains is expected to close off and begin drifting east-southeast by
wednesday. this will likely erode the ridging enough from the west
for a cold front to approach late tuesday or wednesday, though
models and ensembles do not agree on the specifics...common for a
pattern featuring a closed-off low nearly a week out...leading to
lower confidence in the pop and temperature forecast that far out.

pops have increased a bit for monday afternoon and evening, into the
40-60% range (highest across western and northern counties). while
no frontal passages are expected, there is increasing agreement in a
belt of large-scale lift working across the area monday or monday
night as a weak shortwave works through the great lakes. this could
combine with a modestly humid and unstable airmass to allow for
better coverage of showers/thunder. the forecast maintains fairly
general chance pops (20-30% at night, 30-50% each day) tuesday and
wednesday given the prospect of an approaching cold front but low
confidence in the details. temperatures should remain above average
for at least monday and tuesday, though may trend a bit cooler by
wednesday depending on timing of the cold front. in terms of
potential rain coverage and amounts, the prospects for at least
some rain potential a few days in a row starting as early as sunday
(potentially peaking monday-tuesday) is encouraging. however,
forcing may remain modest for most of this period with rain largely
driven by convection, which is inherently hit or miss (and quite
often the heavier rain amounts with convection are the exception
rather than the rule). for perspective on this, nbm ensemble 10th
percentile qpf amounts through wednesday morning (10% chance of less
per the ensemble) range from 0.00 to 0.10" across the area, meaning
some solutions still lead to very little rainfall across parts of
the area. however, the 90th percentile (10% chance of more)
generally ranges from 1.25-1.75", suggesting parts of the area may
see beneficial rain...likely tied to any more organized convection.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
patchy fog has developed across parts of the area and is
expected to last through ~13z. kyng is the primary taf site to
experience visibility restrictions down to 1/4 sm, though kfdy
and ktol may see brief mvfr visibilities.

once fog dissipates, should see vfr conditions with sunny skies.
a cold front moves in from the north late tonight, with mvfr/ifr
possibly accompanying the front. for now, only included mvfr
ceilings at keri where confidence was highest.

winds will generally be light and variable, though an afternoon
lake breeze will produce slightly stronger northwest winds of
5-10 knots in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania,
including keri, kcle, kyng, and kcak.

outlook...non-vfr will be possible with patchy fog and low
ceilings early friday morning. non-vfr with scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible sunday afternoon through at
least tuesday.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds are expected through tonight, though
there may be a few hours this afternoon of around 10 knots
onshore flow with a lake breeze. a cold front crosses the lake
very late tonight into friday morning, with winds becoming
east-northeast behind it. these winds should generally be around
10 knots, though lake breeze enhancement will increase these
winds to 15 knots during the afternoon. this east-northeast flow
continues through saturday and saturday night, with speeds of
around 15-20 knots expected. it`s possible we may need a small
craft advisory and beach hazard statement for at least part of
lake erie on saturday. should see winds become south to
southwest on sunday as high pressure moves off to the east
coast, with these conditions persisting through at least
tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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283
fxus63 kiwx 181014
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
614 am edt thu sep 18 2025

.key messages...

- remaining warm through the weekend with above normal high
temperatures in the 80s.

- chances of rain return for the weekend, especially later
sunday into early monday (50-60%).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt thu sep 18 2025

a warm and dry weather pattern will continue through friday. an
upper level ridge will move very little over the next 24 to 36
hours and will remain situated from southwest ontario into the
ohio valley. this ridge is positioned between a larger negative
upper height anomaly across the northern plains and a broad
upper trough across southeast canada. a weak short wave dropping
southeast on the southern periphery of this southeast canadian
height anomaly will allow a weak sfc front to drop across the
southern great lakes tonight, but this front will become
divorced from the stronger southeast canadian forcing.
otherwise today, low level thermal fields remain similar to that
of yesterday. some minor increases in mid level moisture may
spill over the ridge into the southern great lakes, but any mid
cloud cover should be limited and not have any significant
impact on highs today. persistence forecast utilized once again
today for a first estimate of today`s high temps, generally in
the mid 80s but a little cooler near lake michigan where a weak
lake breeze should develop once again.

aforementioned sfc trough should gradually lose its integrity as it
drops across the southern great lakes tonight. main impacts from
this front locally could be a slightly more favorable setup for fog
development tonight, particularly across northeast half of the area
where low level flow trajectories could once again aid in a weak low
level moisture influence from lake huron/erie. given what has been a
favorable fog pattern, and perhaps some better near sfc rh from
effects of this weak front, will go ahead and include a patchy fog
mention tonight.

for late friday into saturday, main forecast challenge will be
resolving the magnitude of moisture return and extent of mid/upper
level forcing that is able to advance eastward from the plains. a
mid/upper level disturbance across the northern plains this morning
will continue to be enhanced diabatically today with additional
convective development across the central plains later today
helping to sharpen a lead short wave that should work into the
western great lakes later friday into saturday. run to run
consistency in guidance has been a challenge in this pattern
given dependence on diabatic processes, but trend over past few
guidance iterations has been for enough elevated moisture return
due to the lead central plains short wave and northern plains
dampening upper disturbance to allow for at least isolated
shower potential late friday night into saturday. broad flow
pattern with northeast conus anticyclone may also enhance some
broad low level confluence that could aid in isolated shower
development.

best chances of rain still appear to be in the later sunday/monday
timeframe as additional pacific energy allows stronger southwesterly
flow to advect some anomalous deep layer moisture into the
region. of low confidence is the strength of this next pacific
short wave late weekend/monday but better advective
forcing/anomalous moisture seem to support a trend in ensemble
guidance of greater measurable rain chances late sunday into
monday.

the predictability in the precip forecast wanes sharply post-
monday. medium range guidance is in general agreement of a
significant negative upper height anomaly closing off in a
blocked pattern across central conus middle of next week, but
placement/depth of this feature is of very low confidence so an
extended period of low-mid chance pops was left for much of the
remainder of the long term period. this overall pattern should
favor trend of temps back to more seasonable levels next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 611 am edt thu sep 18 2025

plenty of mvfr to ifr visibilities being reported across
northern indiana and adjacent areas. duration of these reduced
visibilities have generally be brief and highly variable.
existing tafs remained on track at this hour.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
738
fxus63 kdtx 181005
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
605 am edt thu sep 18 2025

.key messages...

- highs well into the 80s today outside of the thumb.

- a weak cold front brings chances for scattered showers and storms
focused north of i-69 this afternoon-evening.

- a little cooler friday into saturday. warmer with increasing rain
chances by the end of the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure maintains influence over southeast michigan early
today, ensuring continued vfr conditions with some pockets of higher
based cloud and generally light winds from the north-northwest. a
cold front will sag southward across the region this afternoon and
evening. an increase in low level moisture along the front will
bring the potential for a few showers to develop, particularly near
mbs and possibly fnt by evening. an isolated thunderstorm also
possible across this corridor wind shift to northeasterly with the
frontal passage. this trajectory may favor some degree of lower
stratus development tonight as moisture from lake huron infiltrates
the region.

for dtw/d21 convection...no thunderstorms expected through the taf
period.

threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 335 am edt thu sep 18 2025

discussion...

visible and water vapor satellite highlight the next shortwave set
to cross the great lakes today. trailing backdoor cold front sinks
through southern lower mi starting this afternoon through the
evening as the wave reaches southern ontario. lower level flow in
advance turns more westerly allowing a piece of the richer theta-a
airmass over the upper mississippi to be drawn over se mi pushing
surface td`s into the lower 60s. cam solutions have trended more
bullish on mlcape relative to prior night runs with most now
favoring several hundred j/kg by late afternoon focused north of i-
69. while the backdoor front itself isn`t particularly strong, given
its nature, afternoon timing during typical lake breeze development
offers enhancement of frontal forcing particularly near the saginaw
bay as the boundary turns into a hybrid cold front-lake breeze. as a
result, confidence is increasing for scattered showers and
thunderstorms (due to the higher available instability) to develop
over the tri-cities and western thumb around/after 18z this
afternoon. exactly how far south this convection survives late
afternoon-evening still carries uncertainty though have extended
chance pops (25%) to the i-69 corridor and slight chances (15%) to
the m-59 corridor.

modestly cooler friday as the front settles near the state border
setting up northeasterly flow into se mi. given the winds off lake
huron, the thumb will be the coolest area with highs ranging from
near 60 on the lakeshore to upper 60s-near 70 inland. areas south of
m-59 stand the see the warmest temps with highs still in the mid-
upper 70s to lower 80s towards the ohio border. mid-upper ridging
then is briefly re-established friday night-saturday maintaining the
dry pattern and above normal temps in the 70s and low 80s.

ridging pushes east of the region by late saturday as a warm front
tied to low pressure over the upper midwest lifts through the great
lakes. fropa brings the next shot to see a few scattered showers
though lingering dry airmass from prior high keeps these chances on
the lower side (<30%). better potential for wider spread rainfall
arrives sunday night-monday with the passage of the attendant weak
cold front. active pattern looks to continue into midweek as a
closed low of pacific northwest origin reaches the plains/ohio
valley, though this will depend on how progressive the trough is
with some long range solutions (like the ecwmf) advertising a stall
over the midwest/southern plains instead.

marine...

a cold front drops southward across the region today, reaching the
southern basin of lake huron by early afternoon and western lake
erie this evening. this will be marked by an increase in north to
northwest wind to around 10 to 15 kt. funneling effects on saginaw
bay will result in a localized northeast wind direction and locally
higher gusts of around 20 kt. strong high pressure then builds in
across northern ontario which produces northeast flow across the
region friday with sustained speed of 15 to 20 kt and gusts near 25
kt across saginaw bay and southern lake huron. wind veers to east
and southeast by saturday, with the higher magnitude of wind
shifting toward the northern lake huron basin.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......tf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.