Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 051127
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
727 am edt sat sep 5 2026

.what has changed...
the severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled as of 6 am. no
additional strong to severe storms are expected for the
remainder of today.

&&

.key messages...
1) thunderstorms (some strong to severe) will continue to move
southeast across the area over the next several hours, mainly
impacting locations on a line from findlay to mount vernon.

2) seasonable and dry weather is expected for much of the
holiday weekend. a brief period of unsettled weather may return
by mid- next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite reveals an organized cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms moving southeast along a narrow
instability gradient across portions of northwest and north-
central ohio early this morning, supported by modest northwest
shear of 30 to 35 knots. damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph remain
the primary concern with this area of convection as it exits
south and east of the area by around sunrise. a severe
thunderstorm watch remains in effect for this area until 8 am.

otherwise, a cold front will move south through the area today,
ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass into the region.
this could result in some scattered showers or isolated
thunderstorms, though strong to severe storms are not expected.

key message 2...
high pressure will begin to build south across the great lakes
late saturday and persist into early next week. the latest
trends favor seasonable and mainly dry weather during this
timeframe with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and less
humidity.

will then begin watching the next system by mid-next week as
another upper-level ridge builds east across the central and
eastern conus, followed by the passage of a strong upper-level
trough moving east through the upper great lakes. shower and
thunderstorms chances will increase beginning wednesday
afternoon and evening, with the potential continuing into
thursday, though uncertainty remains on storm coverage.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
low stratus gradually lifts to vfr through the afternoon hours
today, and will expect more isolated convection to fire after
16z today. chances too low for tempo or prob30, but an amd or
two may have to be utilized as storms form. as a cold front
continues to push south of the region, winds become n/ne with
gusts to 15kts possible.

outlook...non- vfr possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
waves increase in the wake of a cold front moving towards the
ohio valley today as high pressure moves in from the north as
northeast winds 10-20kts become dominant and heights 2-4ft this
weekend. monday, winds ease but wave heights remain around 2ft.
winds finally offshore tuesday 5-10kts, and wave heights a foot
or less into wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 051049
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
649 am edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- lingering low chances (10-30%) for showers and storms today,
mainly early this morning.

- dry and cooler sunday into early next week.

- the next low chance for showers and storms arrives wednesday
into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 314 am edt sat sep 5 2026

convective complex over far ne il and nw oh should exit the area to
the southeast by 9-10z. an isolated strong-severe cell (wind)
remains possible, though activity likely to remain largely outflow
dominant in our area. lower chances (10-30%) for a few showers and
storms linger during the daylight hours today as the primary
frontal zone shifts south through the area. another humid day
otherwise along/south of us 30 in in where peak pm heat indices
are expected to top out in the 90s.

canadian high pressure builds in from the northeast by saturday
afternoon ushering in cooler and less humid air into the area.
meanwhile, the upper-level ridge is displaced well over the
central and northern plains. high pressure remains in place
through monday, but the upepr-level ridge is expanding back
eastward overhead by this time. this occurs as a trough moves
well inland to the pacific northwest. temperatures warm well
into the 80s monday but dry weather looks to prevail with a lack
of forcing mechanism.

midweek, low pressure occludes manitoba/ontario while a trailing
frontal boundary spills into the midwest. this represents our best
chance for rain and storms in the forecast period, but not quite a
slam-dunk given poor moisture transport. the upper-level ridge
still lingers over the southern plains and looks to expand overhead
late in the week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 649 am edt sat sep 5 2026

rain and thunderstorms will exit the area within the next hour
or so. an mvfr cloud deck is seeping south and will continue to
do so this morning. timing is a touch murky at kfwa as they`re
still under the influence of departing thunderstorms. ceilings
gradually improve through the afternoon as high pressure settles
in. overnight, wind and some lingering clouds may limit any
radiation fog.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 051032
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
632 am edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity are slated to
return today through monday.

- next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives tuesday night
into wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

subtle trailing elevated frontal forcing in the wake of the
convective complex over ohio will sustain a few light showers this
morning. otherwise, high pressure gradually expanding across the
northern great lakes will except greater influence across se mi
during the course of the day. remnant low level moisture may allow
some additional mvfr based cloud development this morning. low level
dry air advection under light northeast winds associated with the
sfc high and diurnal mixing will erode any remnant low clouds by
afternoon, leaving some higher vfr based strato cu before the push of
dry air clears out cloud cover toward evening.

d21/dtw convection...morning thunderstorm activity will remain well
south of the airspace. no additional thunderstorms are expected
through the remainder of the taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 312 am edt sat sep 5 2026

discussion...

the front lit up with convection overnight along the mi/in border
and with the help of a remnant convectively forced meso-low looks
like it will continue its upscale growth as it tracks south and west
of se mi toward morning. there`s still a chance lenawee and monroe
can get clipped by northern reaches of the convective cluster as the
low tried to track eastward just south of the border, but this
current convection will force the more potent instability axis
southwest of the area, making it harder to sustain itself into the
cwa. will keep a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of i94 through
the early morning to account for this potential, whether we get
clipped by the strong storms or more of elevated convection further
up the frontal slope utilizing the 1000 j/kg mucape. other area to
watch will be closer to the i69 corridor where there is another
convergence axis on the north edge of the shear with elevated cape
in the area as well. cams have been trying to generate some
scattered showers for the several cycles and current regional radar
shows a few showers trying to get going so will carry a low end pop
through the late morning to account for potential activity carrying
on until drier air under the sinking high pressure system can end
the showers for the rest of the weekend. severe weather is not
anticipated due to elevated nature of any storms that develop.

heights then build through the day as the amplified ridge over the
plains drifts eastward over the great lakes. at the same time, a
retrograding upper low over the east coast of canada will force a
surface high south and west over the great lakes bringing a less
humid and cooler airmass. dewpoints will hover in the upper 50s to
low 60s with highs in the upper 70s saturday though monday. next
chance of precip arrives wednesday as a strong pacific wave flattens
the longwave ridge after pushing the ridge axis across the state.
the associated surface low well to the north over ontario sends a
cold front down through the great lakes. warm advection ahead of the
front tuesday will raise max temps back into the low 80s with mid to
upper 80s on wednesday before the fropa. this front will again bring
a cooler airmass with highs dropping into the mid 70s for thursday.

marine...

high pressure anchored over ontario will increase influence through
this weekend. this will bring drier and more stable conditions.
prevailing wind from the northeast may bring a modest increase in
wave action along portions of the lake huron nearshore waters, but
these are expected to remain below advisory levels at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.