Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
633
fxus61 kcle 061803
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
103 pm est fri nov 6 2026

.what has changed...
increased lake effect pops downwind of lake erie this weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler with periods of lake effect showers through the weekend.

2) turning milder next week with unsettled weather returning late
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level low pressure will dive southeast across the lower great
lakes region tonight through saturday. at the surface, a cold front
has swept east across the local forecast area this morning leaving
gusty northwest flow in its wake. anticipate for a period of
scattered lake effect rain showers to continue across the
traditional snowbelt through saturday night. lake effect showers
will briefly exit saturday night into sunday morning as a ridge of
high pressure builds overhead from the southwest. another upper
level shortwave will dive southeast across the eastern great lakes
sunday into monday with lake effect showers downwind of lake
erie in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
additionally, it will remain gusty through the weekend with
northwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 mph on saturday and
southwesterly to westerly winds gusting up to 35 mph on sunday.

remaining cooler this weekend with low temperatures tonight through
sunday falling into the low to mid 30s. high temperatures in the
upper 40s to lower 50s on saturday will warm into the mid to upper
50s by sunday.

key message 2...
the first half of next week looks mainly dry and mild as surface
high pressure remains across the ohio valley. another upper trough
will dig south into the region later in the week. however, current
medium range models have some differences in exact timing. for now,
expect for unsettled weather to return at some point later next
week.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
a cold front continues to work its way eastward across the area
this afternoon, with light showers and mvfr ceilings east of
i-77 right now. a brief period of mostly vfr is expected as the
cold front sweeps through (we`re already seeing this
approximately west of i-77) though widespread mvfr ceilings
will fill back in, along with rain showers in northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania tonight. periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible at times 09-18z saturday, mainly at
and near kyng and keri, which could could bring ifr conditions
at times with visibility and ceilings.

west-northwest winds around 10-12 knots with gusts to 20-25
knots during this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, subsiding to
around 6-10 knots overnight.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers in far northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania sunday afternoon through monday
morning. otherwise, mostly vfr conditions are expected.

&&

.marine...

northwest winds remain elevated at 15-20 knots this afternoon
and will increase to 20-25 knots tonight. northwest winds 15-25
knots on saturday will turn southwesterly saturday night into
sunday. winds may briefly touch 25-30 knots another cold front
will swing across the lake sunday night which will allow for
winds to return northwesterly at 20-25 knots. wave heights
through this weekend will largely range between 4-8 feet,
primarily east of the islands. a small craft advisory remains in
effect for all nearshore zones through the weekend, except the
western basin which expires at 10 am saturday morning. surface
high pressure builds overhead early next week which will allow
for winds to decrease below small craft criteria.

there is also a risk of waterspouts through the weekend given
the cold air aloft and potential for persistent lake effect
showers.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez145>148.
small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
653
fxus63 kiwx 061811
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
111 pm est fri nov 6 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers will continue
this afternoon then taper off into tonight, mainly for areas
west of interstate 69 in northern in and southwest mi.

- seasonably cool conditions continue into saturday night
before a slow warming trends commences, with highs in the 60s
by tuesday.

- cooler temperatures return for the second half of the week.

- no significant precipitation expected saturday through friday.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm est fri nov 6 2026

well defined upper low centered near saginaw bay (lower mi) with
several weak disturbances/troughs rotating around the feature as it
drifts slowly ese reaching western ny by 12z sat. weakly convergent
flow along the eastern shores is keeping the main area of rain
showers from south haven to south bend. instability and favorable
fetch peak into mid afternoon with combination of lowering inversion
heights, departing low and core of coldest air shifting east should
lead to a downward trend into tonight. kept some lingering pops into
the overnight before ending. temperatures tonight will drop into the
low to mid 30s, coldest outside of any lake effect cloud cover.

low level waa will commence on saturday, but bulk of greatest
increase will occur in the afternoon, limiting impacts on afternoon
highs to the lower 50s. after one more cold night in the lower 30s,
high temps will begin to rebound a few degrees each day into tuesday
with a return to above normal levels (low to mid 60s) by tuesday.

a semi zonal upper flow will be interrupted by a northern stream
wave, with a front pushing into the area by wednesday. the trough
will deepen into the second half of the week with additional waves
move through the flow. the main impact appears to be a return to
near or somewhat below normal temperatures to end the work week.
some lake effect shower chances could arrive thu/fri, but overall
flow right now may favor portions of far nw indiana into ne
illinois.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1213 pm est fri nov 6 2026

northwesterly flow will continue to produce light lake effect
rain showers to areas downstream from lake michigan. therefore, keep
mvfr cigs through saturday morning for ksbn. with the lake
effect showers remaining west of kfwa did keep the forecast dry,
although mvfr ceilings are forecast late tonight/early saturday.
winds will increase this afternoon with gusts around 20 kts
possible, than decrease again to around 10 kts or less overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
054
fxus63 kdtx 061828
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
128 pm est fri nov 6 2026

.key messages...

- cooler today with pockets of light rain and drizzle, especially
across the thumb. a northwest breeze keeps wind chill around 40
degrees.

- dry weather helps temperatures rise a few degrees above normal
again during the weekend and early next week.

&&

.aviation...

a sharp upper level wave continues to sweep over the terminals with
system ascent sustaining scattered shallow convective showers as
pockets of light rainfall. most of this precipitation has evaporated
before reaching the surface but a few of these showers could still
offer a brief mvfr visibility reduction. some ceilings have lifted
this afternoon, generally holding at low-end vfr, while additional
lower cloud could preserve mvfr conditions from ptk north into the
evening hours. light showers should continue with higher coverage
further north, including some additional drops to mvfr conditions.
showers then taper overnight while ceilings fill in and descend with
time. longer period of mvfr becomes likely late tonight into
saturday morning with perhaps some low-end ifr potential. modest
winds linger between 270 and 330 degrees, but the on-going gusts
near 20 knots drop-off nocturnally. drier conditions arrive saturday
in the wake of the wave with low-level drying eventually scattering
out lower column ceilings during the afternoon hours for eventual
prevailing vfr.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through saturday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 415 am est fri nov 6 2026

discussion...

a deep upper low is advancing across lower mi this morning with an
impressive presentation to the closed circulation noted in satellite
wv imagery. fgen associated with the aggressive height falls and pva
exits to the east over the next hour with a surge of dry air aloft
quickly working in from the northwest. this brings an end to the
light to moderate rainfall, with a lull in precip until mid morning
when deeper moisture sweeps back across the area. cool northwest
wind with pockets of lake enhanced light rain and/or drizzle bring a
raw, grungy day with temperatures to struggling to reach 50 degrees
this afternoon.

as the deep cyclonic circulation passes overhead, a surface mesolow
is forecast to drop across lake huron this afternoon and evening.
this brings a strongly forced mesoscale band of rain within the
trowal/deformation axis into the vicinity of the eastern thumb.
given the scale of forcing, placement of the heaviest rain carries
uncertainty but confidence has increased for rainfall totals in
excess of 0.50" from port austin to port hope and harbor beach. a
small handful of hi-res solutions and individual members of ens and
geps ensembles indicate potential for localized areas to receive
over 1 inch in the event the mesolow is slower to pass into the
ontario peninsula tonight. surface temps in the 40s and wet bulb
zero heights as low as 2000 ft offer high confidence in rain as the
ptype.

light rain may linger into saturday morning along the thumb
shoreline, otherwise negative vorticity advection ensues in the wake
of the departing upper low to cease precip chances. moist cyclonic
flow below 800mb keeps a good amount of clouds around saturday and
thermal troughing helps hold high temps in the lower 50s. shortwave
ridging crests over the area saturday night before the next trough
arrives from the northwest on sunday. this wave is also deep but
more progressive, targeting lake huron with its main height fall
corridor. light rain may brush the thumb, but the main impact
locally will be a breezy westerly wind as the system passes to the
north. milder conditions develop sunday into tuesday as positive
upper height anomalies prevail over the upper midwest and great
lakes. this period is generally devoid of organized forcing,
favoring dry conditions.

marine...

trough of low pressure remains stretched from quebec southwestward
through the central great lakes early this morning. an upper low
drifting south overnight is causing the surface trough to close into
a low over central lake huron this morning before the whole system
drifts off to the south for the weekend. a trailing trough axis will
get pulled through the area later today as well. winds will be
variable from lake to lake today with the circulation right over
huron. lakes erie and st clair will remain in the northwesterly flow
through the day with the track of the low, while northern huron get
into gusty northeasterly winds north of the low. the cold air
advection is helping to increase mixing depths over the water and
will help keep the winds speeds and waves elevated through this time
across lake huron. this will all lead to an extended period of small
craft advisories across much of the waters now through saturday
morning. will need to watch western lake erie tonight into saturday
morning for brief period of winds gusts to around 25 knots.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lhz422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est saturday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...tf
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.