Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
583
fxus61 kcle 300009
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
809 pm edt sun mar 29 2026

.what has changed...
increased the coverage but not the magnitude of pops tonight
slightly in the isentropic lift light rain.

&&

.key messages...
1) after some isentropic lift rain/shower activity tonight and
monday night, a strong cold front comes through early tuesday
night.

2) unsettled/wet conditions dominate the forecast after wednesday as
frontal boundaries and low pressure returns for the end of the
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a defined area of isentropic lift will move through the cwa tonight,
continuing with the pops from the previous forecast. likely a brief
break into the middle part of the day tuesday, and then more
isentropic lift becoming more defined heading into the evening
hours. pops on the increase as this forcing moves northeastward,
putting the bulk of the activity mainly north of the cwa tonight
with the exception of the northeastern cwa zones. with the tuesday
evening/tuesday night cold front, likely to be another high shear
environment for the convective potential with at least elevated cape
in play. as mentioned yesterday, still have time for some of those
more specific details and the severe potential, with only a marginal
risk on day 3 for the northern portion of the cwa. downpours working
their way into the fold as well in high precipitation efficiency
vertical profiles and pwat values more mid to late spring-like in
the 1.25-1.50 inch range. sharply cooler once again behind the cold
front for wednesday.

key message 2...
cold front will push down into the ohio valley wednesday, but
cyclogenesis to the southwest will bring it back north as a warm
front wednesday night and thursday, then likely draped over the cwa
as a stationary front through early friday. the long and short of it
is that an unsettled wet pattern will occupy much of the forecast
beyond wednesday with off and on rain through the period. with no
vegetation out yet and in continued high pwat setups, will need to
watch the overall accumulation of rainfall through the period for
high stream/creek/river levels and ponding of water, especially
after the tuesday night weather. much of this will depend on the
frequency of the rain, and also the duration of the breaks in
between. not expecting widespread issues at this moment in the
forecast, however. temperatures after wednesday will trend above
normal again into the next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
conditions are starting off vfr this evening with a broken mid
level cloud deck and southwest winds of 5-10 knots tonight.
moisture increases with a low level jet overnight and there is
potential for a few sprinkles or showers at mfd or cak but
chances are below 40 percent and expected to be light. we do
have a window of low level wind sheer in the forecast with
inversion heights around 1500 and winds increasing to 35-40
knots at that level between 07-14z. surface winds become breezy
with gusts to 22 knots on monday between 15-22z. ceilings will
gradually lower through the day on monday with mvfr developing
during the afternoon to early evening. an expansion of showers
is also expected monday afternoon into the evening and have
included light rain showers at mfd/cle/cak/yng/eri. a few
moderate showers or a rumble of thunder is also possible but
think better chances for thunderstorms will be beyond the end of
the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers or isolated thunderstorms
late monday through early tuesday. additional non-vfr likely in
more widespread showers and thunderstorms tuesday night into
wednesday with periods of non-vfr conditions continuing in
occasional showers through friday.

&&

.marine...
south to southwest winds 15 knots or less will continue through
monday and there may be a period where winds increase slightly
late tonight into early monday. southwest winds will increase to
around 15 to 20 knots monday night through tuesday night,
although a few spots (highest confidence in the open waters of
the lake) will likely reach 20 to 25 knots. small craft
advisories will most likely be needed for portions of the lake
during this time and the hazardous conditions may continue as
winds gradually diminish and become northwest behind a cold
front late tuesday into early wednesday. a brief lull in
headlines is likely midday wednesday through wednesday evening
before winds once again increase thursday through friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...10
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
556
fxus63 kiwx 292248
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
648 pm edt sun mar 29 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend continues into monday and tuesday.

- shower and thunderstorm chances return monday night through
early wednesday. highest chances, including an opportunity
for strong to severe storms, will be late tuesday afternoon
into tuesday evening (70-90%).

- cooler midweek with additional opportunties for rain thursday
through next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 205 pm edt sun mar 29 2026

southerly winds will continue to usher in warmer, and eventually
more moist air into early next week on the western periphery of a
broad eastern conus surface high. a warm front and theta-e ridge
lifts in monday night into early tuesday morning morning, while in
the mid levels several small scale perturbations track east into the
lower great lakes. whether this slug of moisture will be enough to
overcome a capping inversion at the base of an eml near the warm
front remains uncertain, thus have retained chance pops (20-50%,
highest north) for scattered convection during this time. the
presence of 35-45 knots of effective shear and steep mid level lapse
rates could pose a hail and gusty wind threat if thunderstorms
develop.

warm sector likely becomes firmly established for a time on tuesday
as a stronger shortwave tracking east along the us/canada border
induces a weak sfc frontal wave over the central/northern great
lakes. the system cold front then slowly drops through the area from
north to south late tuesday afternoon into tuesday night with
showers and thunderstorms expected along it or any pre-frontal
features. additional moisture/lift with any small scale
impulses, frontal forcing, and what could be up to 1500 j/kg of
mlcape will provide a conductive environment for showers and
storms during this time. could also see another window for a few
strong to severe storms late tuesday afternoon into tuesday
evening given the progged instability and 35-45 knots of deep
layer shear.

ensembles generally favor cooler temps into wednesday as the frontal
boundary settles off the south. the pattern thereafter looks
periodically wet as several low pressure systems take aim on the
midwest.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 645 pm edt sun mar 29 2026

vfr conditions expected to dominate prior to the arrival of a
warm front passing through monday afternoon. this will bring
decreasing ceilings into the upper end of mvfr, but any showers
and storms appear to wait until after the valid period. have
left some marginal llws at both sites overnight as llj begins to
ramp up prior to daytime mixing of stronger wind gusts to the
ground.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen/fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
286
fxus63 kdtx 300358
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1158 pm edt sun mar 29 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend through the early week with 60s on monday and into
the lower 70s tuesday.

- monday night and tuesday afternoon/evening hold the next chance for
rain and thunderstorms. an isolated storm could approach severe
intensity monday night. continued severe weather potential exists
on tuesday afternoon and evening. marginal risk of severe weather
is in place covering both periods with hail and wind as the main
threats.

- temperatures drop back to normal or slightly below normal for
wednesday through late week.

- pattern remains active mid-late week and into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions overnight as some intervals of thicker mid and high
level cloud lift through at times. greater potential for cloud
featured across the 5 to 6 kft level to arrive during the early and
mid morning hours, particularly across the detroit airspace. some
strengthening of wind will occur off the surface as the low level
jet arrives, but sufficiently mixed surface flow precludes a mention
of low level wind shear at this time. prevailing wind direction
remains from the southwest. higher based vfr cloud likely to persist
throughout monday under sustained warm/moist air advection. some
lowering below 5000 ft will be possible during the afternoon and
evening hours. the advective process may allow for widely scattered
showers to develop by evening. there will also be a low probability
for thunderstorm development.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 ft monday afternoon and evening.

* low for thunderstorms monday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 344 pm edt sun mar 29 2026

discussion...

surface high pressure translates off the mid-atlantic coast today
while southwest return flow ushers in warmer air and eventually
greater moisture to the region. thermal moderation is evident this
afternoon with temperatures into the 50s. stable conditions will
keep the weather free of precipitation through the remainder of the
day into tomorrow. clearing tonight favors radiational cooling
potential, but should be somewhat limited by the overnight gradient
flow. lows tonight should hold mostly in the 40s with localized
upper 30s possible.

another appreciable jump in temperatures tomorrow with low
variability in the surface temperature spread that points towards
temperatures in the 60s for most of southeast michigan. a sagging
frontal boundary near north/central michigan may lead to a period of
onshore flow across the tri-cities/northern thumb. that would keep
temperatures a little cooler along the lakeshore areas if it sags
far enough south. noticeable moisture will also arrive with surface
dewpoints climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s and good low-mid
level moisture transport sending 850mb dewpoints to 5-10c. this
comes with increasing cloud cover and sets the stage for increasing
precipitation chances.

overall convective potential monday evening through tuesday will be
the primary forecast concern. increasing ascent will arrive with the
strengthening low level jet winds into michigan as a central plains
low begins to migrate towards the midwest. some weak showers may be
possible across during the afternoon/early evening monday across the
southern half of southeast michigan, but the greater probability
with widespread coverage will be monday night from midnight through
mid tuesday morning. monday night will begin with elevated
convection supported by strong theta-e advection aided by the 50+
knot lower level jet. steep mid-level lapse rates, mucape above 1000
j/kg, and bulk shear to around 40 knots will be enough to support
elevated thunderstorms with hail as the main threat. some potential
for stronger winds also exists given the strong low level flow just
above the surface. a day 2 marginal risk of severe weather remains
in place for this potential.

progression of the low pressure into the midwest will lift the
frontal zone northward expanding the warm sector across southeast
michigan. still some question as to exact placement of the frontal
features by tuesday afternoon and the morning rain and clouds may
also limit potential for a stronger instability response. will
continue to monitor these trends, but models still advertising
surface based cape increasing to 500-1000 j/kg ahead of the cold
front supported by surface temperatures climbing to upper 60s and
low 70s. sufficient 0-6km bulk shear of 40+ knots and steep mid-
level lapse rates remains in place through the afternoon. if
convection can become surface based, there will at least be a low
tornado threat. however, shear vectors are not all that favorable
given the mostly unidirectional profiles. organized convective
potential along with pwats to around 1.25 inches will also bring a
localized heavy rain potential. spc has updated the day 3 outlook to
include a slight risk for tuesday afternoon/evening activity. this
update appears tied to the csu-ml and ncar ai nws convective hazard
forecast pages that continue to highlight the severe potential for
tuesday afternoon and evening with hail and wind being the main
threats. this event still carries some uncertainty and greater
confidence in overall hazard potential will come with more runs
within the hi-res window.

cold front is forecast to clear michigan by wednesday morning and
settling across central in/oh. this will drop temperatures back down
to normal or a few degrees below. precipitation may be sustained
along the southern michigan border during the early part of the day
as the boundary stalls out. another potentially impactful system may
set up thursday as a trough advances across the plains and triggers
development of a low pressure system along the frontal zone. cold
air will be hanging on across the northern half of the cwa early
thursday presenting a chance for rain/snow mix or some periods of
wintry mix before warmer air is driving northward. will have to keep
an eye on lower level thermal profile trends and progression of the
warmer air northward. if colder surface air wants to hold on longer
across parts of southeast michigan throughout the day, an increasing
chance for a longer duration of freezing rain will be possible. lref-
nh currently paints a ~20-30% chance of 0.1" of freezing rain
roughly along and northwest of a flint to bad axe line thursday by
late thursday afternoon. pattern remains active with models sending
another low pressure system through the region over the weekend.

marine...

southwest return flow has set up over the great lakes today as high
pressure settles into the mid-atlantic. influx of warmer air aloft
has established stable over-lake profiles to keep wind gusts capped
at 20 knots amidst modest gradient flow around 15 knots. offshore
flow directs elevated waves into the open waters through most of
monday. surface convergence along the warm front intensifies monday
night into tuesday morning, triggering showers and elevated
thunderstorms overnight which will be capable of hail and lightning.
the front also causes winds to veer to the east for portions of lake
huron, resulting in an uptick in wave heights tuesday. a strong cold
front then sweeps through tuesday afternoon-evening, drawing a line
of thunderstorms across the area. a few of these storms may be
strong to severe, with the main concern being wind gusts over 35
knots. post-frontal winds shift sharply to the northwest with high
pressure filling back in by mid-week and introducing snow chances
back into the forecast.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.