Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
965
fxus61 kcle 201727
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
127 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through at least early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the weather pattern will stay relatively stagnant through the
next several days as high pressure maintains influence over the
region. this will result in dry weather through at least early
next week in addition to near normal temperatures. highs will
be in the 60s with lows in the 30s and lower 40s each day,
although temperatures may begin to warm towards the end of the
weekend as the high starts to shift east. the only notable
hazard over the next several days will be related to frost
potential with efficient radiational cooling occurring most
nights. that said, the best chance of frost will be in locations
where the growing season has already ended. will need to keep
an eye on how temperatures trend in typical cold spots across
wayne/ashland/holmes counties tonight into early wednesday
morning, but there`s potential for patchy fog and lower stratus
which could throw a wrench in radiational cooling/frost coverage
in that area.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
primarily vfr conditions will continue across the region
through the taf period outside of patchy fog tonight into
wednesday morning at tol/fdy. have ifr to lifr conditions in the
taf with this forecast package.

northeast winds 5-8 knots will continue through this evening
before becoming light and variable tonight. maintained a
northerly to northeasterly lake breeze of 8-12 knots at cle/eri
through this evening.

outlook...outside of overnight patchy fog, mainly vfr is expected
through sunday.

&&

.marine...
winds will shift northeast over the lake today and increase to
10-15kt, with a brief period of 15-20kt winds east of the
islands this evening. waves will increase to 1 to 3 feet this
afternoon through tonight, with a brief period of 2 to 4 footers
this evening east of the islands. conditions will be near small
craft advisory criteria for a few hours - holding off on the
headline early this morning, but will continue evaluating in
case winds/waves trend slightly higher. lighter and more
variable winds with little wave activity for wednesday and
wednesday night. north-northeast winds to around 10kt develop on
thursday and will build some chop, with winds expected to shift
more northeast and increase to 15-20kt for a time thursday night
into friday. 2-4 or 3-5 footers will likely build and a small
craft advisory may be needed, especially in the central basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...13
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
648
fxus63 kiwx 201651
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1251 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

.key messages...

- dense fog possible early wednesday morning, especially along and
east of i-69.

- tranquil fall weather continues with mild temperatures and
sunshine through this week into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1245 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

with high pressure over southern ontario and prominent upper level
ridging over the central conus expected to build into the great
lakes over the next several days, a tranquil week is ahead. expect
lots of sunshine, light winds, and highs generally in the upper 60s
to low 70s each day. little to no rainfall is expected over the next
7 days and mainly dry conditions look to continue through at least
the end of the month. we may see some showers out of a cold frontal
passage early next week but for now chances remain very low (15% or
less).

despite some clouds over northwest ohio and northeast indiana
overnight with a weak backdoor cold front from lake erie,
patchy to widespread dense fog is possible overnight into
wednesday morning. light easterly flow may allow for advection
fog to develop, especially along and east of i-69. forecast
soundings indicate potential for small dewpoint depressions as
temperatures and dewpoints are both expected to be in the low to
mid 40s tonight. the best timeframe for dense fog will be
between 3 am to 9 am edt wednesday, with the lowest visibilities
at or just before daybreak. current nbm probabilities are about
20-30% for visibilities less than 3 miles while href guidance
suggests visibilities may go down to less than 1 mile especially
in nw ohio; given that there are still uncertainties and that
fog can be quite fickle to forecast, future shifts may need to
hoist an sps or even a dense fog advisory depending on how low
visibilities drop.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1152 am edt tue oct 20 2026

continuation of vfr conditions and light winds as high pressure dominates.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
166
fxus63 kdtx 201720
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
120 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with mild afternoon highs and cool morning lows will
persist into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure in place through the forecast period maintaining clear
to mostly clear skies and light winds. with winds turning light and
variable overnight, favorable setup for fog development across se
mi. no clear signal where densest fog could form given the variable
winds so for now opted for mvfr vsbys for all sites with a tempo ifr
early wednesday morning to highlight window for lowest potential
visibilities. anything that does form overnight should burn off by
the latter half of wednesday morning. one caveat is any true dense
fog could linger into the early afternoon given the late october sun
angle (similar to what occurred in eastern wisconsin today).

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue oct 20 2026

discussion...

an elongated sfc to mid level ridge axis extending across the great
lakes region today through wednesday will maintain the persistent
dry pattern across the forecast area. a northern stream short wave
forecast to track across northern ontario wednesday will drive a
weakening sfc cold front into the great lakes region wed night. this
frontal boundary will essentially wash out as long wave ridge
amplification takes hold across the central us thurs into friday,
resulting in rebounding mid level heights across lower mi. this will
strengthen the large low-mid level anticyclone across much of the
eastern us, the influence of which will affect se mi through saturday
sustaining dry conditions with relatively little cloud cover.

the dry ambient airmass will continue to support relatively cool
nights with ample afternoon sunshine today through saturday.
forecast mixing depths and thermal profiles remain supportive of
afternoon highs from the mid 60s to lower 70s today through
thursday. sfc high pressure is forecast to strengthen to 1035mb
across quebec by friday. this may drive a slightly cooler airmass
across the eastern great lakes, warranting a little lower forecast
highs on friday. with the center of the sfc high pressure already
centered across ne ontario and quebec, light easterly winds off the
lakes will contribute to some enhanced fog potential. there are some
indications in the hi res suite for some degree of fog expansion
across the thumb this morning. a more notable moisture push tonight
into wed morning may allow a more expansive advective fog event off
lake erie, with the stronger easterly flow possibly supporting the
better fog chances farther west toward adrian and ann arbor.

there is indication in ecwmf and gfs ensemble members that a forecast
deeper upper wave tracking across central canada sunday into early
next week will break down the ridging across the great lakes,
suggesting a possible pattern change for next week.

marine...

the influence of high pressure sustains benign marine conditions
today and through the week. an uptick in easterly wind occurs across
northern lake huron this morning as the center of the high pressure
strengthens just north of georgian bay, with gusts up to 20 kt. wind
weakens by this afternoon then gradually veers to southwest by
wednesday afternoon. a dry cold front washes out overhead wednesday
night with another broad area of high pressure then taking residence
through the end of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sc
marine.......tf


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.