Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
513
fxus61 kcle 081853
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
253 pm edt thu oct 8 2026

.what has changed...
the timing for any rain and minor wind impacts in the area from
hurricane isaias has slowed a bit with most of the impacts
occurring on sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure across the region will allow for dry conditions
to continue with slowly increasing temperatures. overnight frost
chances will remain low with moderating nightly temperatures.

2) rain and elevated wind gusts are expected on sunday with the
remnants of hurricane isaias moving through the ohio valley. any
flooding concerns will be extremely localized given the recent
dry spell and limited to the southeastern portions of the
forecast area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to build over the area today and
last through saturday, allowing for dry conditions through the
first half of the weekend. with high pressure overhead and light
flow across the region, temperatures will dip into the 40s and
some upper 30s in sheltered locations but frost potential will
be low with highs in the 60s and 70s this afternoon. as high
pressure shifts to the east on friday and saturday, southerly
flow and warm advection into the region will allow for
temperatures to get a bump into the 70s and maybe some 80s for
saturday with increasing nightly temperatures.

one minor concern through end of the week will be dry
conditions during the afternoon hours with relative humidity
values in the 25-40% range for most areas with peak afternoon
heating and mixing. given the recent dry spell for much of the
area, fuel moisture is on the lower end, especially in northwest
and central ohio. given this and marginally conducive weather
conditions, there could be some fire spread concerns if a fire
were to develop. however, all conditions with the weather and
fuels remain too marginal for a headline or even a special
weather statement.

key message 2...
the main weather concern for the forecast period will be what
happens with hurricane isaias in the gulf of america. isaias
will move north and make landfall along the gulf coast on friday
night. the main circulation will slow in the tennessee valley
this weekend, but the moisture from the system will be picked up
by the flow aloft, allowing for rain to spread north ahead of
the center of the circulation. this would allow for rain to
enter the forecast area after midnight on saturday night,
continuing through the day on sunday. winds will increase on
sunday with the advancing remnant low with gusts of 30-40 mph
possible. total rainfall will be variable across the forecast
area with the potential for a sharp gradient of rainfall
depending on where the main rainfall axis aligns. areas of
northwest ohio may struggle to see a quarter inch of rain or so,
whereas southeastern areas could see over an inch and locally
higher approaching 1.5-2 inches. given low river flows and the
recent dry pattern, flooding will be localized and nuisance at
worst over the local area.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are expected to continue through this taf period.
winds this afternoon will be from the west-northwest at 10-12
knots, occasionally gusting up to 20 knots. once the sun sets,
winds will weaken to light and variable and persist through the
end of the period. a sct cu field with bases between 4-6kft has
developed across the eastern portion of the area, resulting in
few to sct cloud decks this afternoon but once the sun sets,
conditions will stabilize and clear skies will persist.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain showers on sunday.

&&

.marine...
brisk west to northwest flow continues over the eastern half of
lake erie with winds of 15 to 20 kts and waves in the 3 to 5 ft
range. will maintain part of the small craft advisory for the
eastern basin but will chop off the western portion of the
advisory as winds and waves have been less problematic in ohio.
high pressure building into the region will continue to decrease
flow for friday, allowing a pleasant marine weather day. high
pressure will push east for saturday and southerly flow will be
expected. this southeast flow will increase for saturday night
into sunday with the approach of the remnants of hurricane
isaias. winds will shift to the northwest with the passage of
the remnant low on monday. there is potential for a small craft
advisory to be needed for the remnants of isaias on sunday into
monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez146.
small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
744
fxus63 kiwx 081736
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
136 pm edt thu oct 8 2026

.key messages...

- a few sprinkles are possible toward lake michigan friday.

- more widespread light rain is expected early sunday,
especially east of i-69, associated with the remnants of
isaias. no significant impacts are anticipated.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 135 pm edt thu oct 8 2026

remaining quiet across the nation`s midsection this afternoon with
mid-latitude flow focused across the far northern conus while a
subtropical ridge is noted over florida and the carolinas. in the
coming week, we`ll see a variety of modest temperature swings with
increasing chances for rain.

this afternoon, relative humidity values have tumbled toward 35-45%
thanks to deep mixing from aloft. a few wind gusts near 20 to 25 mph
are sprouting up on surface observations. in light of the recent dry
spell, these ingredients amount to a nonzero risk of fire weather
conditions.

a weak warm front along with increasing 850-mb flow will be the
focus for isolated showers or sprinkles (20-30% chance) on friday,
primarily over the greater south bend and michiana area. cross
sections remain rather dry below 8,000 ft while the best low-level
forcing is across illinois. dry conditions will prevail toward and
east of the i-69 corridor. in the wake of the front, far southern
areas will once again make a run for 80 degrees.

our primary rain chance this forecast period continues to be from
any remnants of hurricane isaias, yet not everyone sees rain. rain
chances are greatest along and east of i-69 with rain amounts
generally less then 0.5" saturday night through sunday. overall, no
significant impacts expected from isaias. it will be very warm
saturday (widespread low-80s) as a 582dm ridge builds over the
midwest. not quite as warm to follow sunday with clouds and cyclonic
northerly flow in play.

a cold front is in the cards for the middle of next week, while the
conus becomes dominated by a deep, cold trough descending over the
northern plains and a strong subtropical ridge to the southeast.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1205 pm edt thu oct 8 2026

high pressure continues to provide tranquil and dry conditions.
expect vfr ceilings through the taf period with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. west winds around 10 kts will become calm
late this evening and overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
443
fxus63 kdtx 082246
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
646 pm edt thu oct 8 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with cool to seasonable temperatures today and
friday; chilly tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

- much warmer saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees.

- next significant chance of rain arrives for the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

mainly clear evening skies and very dry low level air will result in
a rapid cooling/stabilizing boundary layer post sunset. this will
allow a quick decrease in wind speeds. large high pressure will hold
across the southern great lakes and ohio valley through friday,
sustaining relatively light winds and vfr conditions.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 pm edt thu oct 8 2026

discussion...

longwave pattern consists of a ridge over the western half of the
conus and troughing over the northeastern conus with the great lakes
transitioning out of the trough tonight. dry northwesterly flow and
surface ridging will keep the area quiet tonight with the main
question being how cold does it get with the thermal trough overhead
dipping below 5c at 850mb? center of the high will be to just to the
south with gradient winds likely remaining in the 5 knot range
overnight. there will also be some passing high cloud, but may not
be enough to blanket the area to keep temps up. afternoon min
dewpoints have fallen into the upper 30s which shows the potential
for low temps tonight which still look to fall to around 40.

heights begin to rise friday allow for a slight increase in temps,
though they will likely remain in the 60s again. low impact feature
we continue to watch in the model space is a shortwave riding along
the elevated warm front that will lift through friday night. the
shortwave looks to activate over ia and northern il friday afternoon
with as the low level jet surges northward into it. as the wave
drifts east though it separates from the jet which remains west of
lake mi so should see a weakening trend with any showers over lower
mi, possibly no rain at all, but there is still a good theta e surge
which could be enough to bring some showers along the state line
after 00z saturday.

still looking at a warm up on saturday as southwesterly flow ramps
up behind the warm front and the thermal ridge folds into the great
lakes. ecmwf has cooled off a few degrees since yesterday with 850mb
temps peaking around 15-16c instead of 18c that was advertised
previously. gfs is still in the 16-17c range. so will keep highs in
the upper 70s and we`ll see if 80s will still be possible as we get
closer.

later in the weekend will be dictated by the track of the remnants
of hurricane isaias which is forecast to lift northward toward the
ohio valley through the weekend before getting shunted off to the
east. still indications that some degree of the outer portions of
the northern precip shield will lift into southern mi before pealing
off to the east, but now it appears the deeper plume of moisture
will stay to the southeast limiting potential for heavier rainfall
locally.

marine...

peak afternoon gustiness wanes into the evening hours as the boundary-
layer collapses. gusts have largely been kept in-check, therefore no
marine headlines are planned through the near-term period. high
pressure becomes firmly established in the vicinity of the central
great lakes as a ridge spills eastward out of the mid/upper
mississippi valley and the jet/trough overhead exits. markedly lower
gradient winds arrive friday with the surface ridge axis oriented
from wisconsin to virginia. return flow eventually ensues with a
southerly wind shift on friday. the next forecast concern depends on
the timing and track of the remnants of hurricane isaias. winds are
generally expected to hold below threshold criteria once the system
lifts through the ohio valley. however, can`t completely rule out a
few gusts near gale-force over the northern huron basin later on
saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.