Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
353
fxus61 kcle 141734
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1234 pm est sat feb 14 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes made to the previous forecast. the weather
pattern continues to look more active with multiple opportunities
for light rain from wednesday through friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures are expected across the local area
today and will persist through the week. the snowpack across the
region will melt during this time.

2) the weather pattern becomes more active during the second half of
the week with multiple rounds of light rain possible between
wednesday and friday. rises on area rivers could increase the
potential for localized ice jams to develop.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

heights rebound across the area today as a ridge builds east through
the ohio valley. weak warm advection continues with southerly
surface winds and a continued moderation of the airmass.
temperatures will tend to be in the mid to upper 40s over the
weekend with locally cooler conditions expected in pa. after the
passage of a shortwave on sunday night, a broad upper ridge
expands from the rocky mountains to near the east coast of the
united states. temperatures creep up above 50 degrees in
northern ohio for monday and tuesday with the warmest forecast
temperatures on wednesday as a warm front lifts north of lake
erie. the local area is expected to get into the warm sector
with breezy southwest winds and temperatures near 60 degrees
towards central ohio. the consensus indicates that the above
normal temperatures will persist through at least friday.

remaining snow across the region is expected to melt as temperatures
soar to well above normal values. dewpoints start to climb above
freezing on sunday and even surpass 40 degrees across much of the
area for tuesday and wednesday. the melting snow will contribute to
some run-off and generally minor rises on area rivers.

.key message 2...

an upper level trough lifts out of the plains from tuesday into
wednesday as a 150 knot upper level jet approaches from the
four corners region. surface low pressure fills while lifting
out of the plains towards the upper midwest. showers associated
with overrunning along a warm front will extend east from the
low towards northern ohio, lifting northeast through the day. a
gradient is expected in the coverage of precipitation across
the area with better coverage near lake erie and even more so
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. precipitation
totals are generally forecast to be a third of an inch or less
with locally up to a half inch possible in pennsylvania.

another system looks to follow on the heels of this one, with low
pressure tracking out of the plains towards the central great lakes
thursday night and friday. the exact track of the system will
influence the amount of precipitation to expect and this will be
something to watch for the end of the week. the combination of
thermal break up from the warm conditions and run-off from
snowmelt and rain could combine to break up ice on area rivers.
this could result in the development of localized ice jams and
conditions will be monitored closely this week.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
vfr through most of tonight. clouds overspread and lower from
the south as a low pressure system moves across the southeastern
us. precipitation shield could get into the southern terminals,
and will carry some restrictions from lowering ceilings and
visibility issues in -ra and light winds. the most likely
candidate for this is mfd. other terminals fdy/cak/yng may lose
these mvfr/ifr conditions if the precipitation shield forecast
sinks a bit further south. winds light and variable to
southwesterly less than 10kts.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie is still mostly ice covered. there`s a break in the ice
just east of the islands to about vermilion, oh that extends north
through the open water zones. more degradation in the ice coverage
is expected over the next several days with a light southwesterly
wind and temperatures staying near and above freezing. currently the
winds are sitting around 10 to 15 knots across the lake and will
diminish into the early morning hours becoming less than 5 knots and
variable through monday morning. stronger winds of around 15 to 25
knots are possible wednesday into thursday next week with a passing
low pressure system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...23
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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953
fxus63 kiwx 141726
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1226 pm est sat feb 14 2026

.key messages...

- chance (30-50%) for light rain tonight into sunday morning
along and south of the us 30 corridor.

- above normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

- an active pattern develops during the mid to late week periods
with periodic chances (30-60%) for rain and gusty winds.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 132 am est sat feb 14 2026

stretch of early spring-like wx and above normal temps remain the
story through the middle of the week under low amplitude split flow
aloft. weak elevated deformation and deeper moisture on the northern
fringes of a southern stream system clips areas mainly south of the
us 30 corridor tonight into sunday morning with a period of light
rain still possible (30-50%). dry otherwise through at least
tuesday.

a more active west-southwest flow regime emerges during the mid to
late week periods given a transition to western conus troughing and
southeast us ridging aloft. moisture advects into a developing
baroclinic zone from the central plains into the lower great lakes.
piecemeal ejections of sheared shortwave energy out of the western
conus longwave trough will aid in the development of precipitation
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary and any developing sfc
reflections. initial development comes tuesday night into wednesday
for showers and perhaps a few embedded storms, though a large
portion of the area could end up drier and warmer within the warm
sector. several more shortwaves and moisture surges take aim on the
region then into the second half of the week into next weekend with
additional chances for precipitation (mainly rain), and a trend
toward cooler temps with the main baroclinic zone eventually
forced farther south toward the oh river.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1225 pm est sat feb 14 2026

dry air with upper ridging gives way to height falls as a low
pressure system passes by to the south. some uncertainty over how
far north precipitation is able to get, but think fwa gets precip
and it stays south of sbn. mvfr flight conditions appear to be most
likely as rain down in missouri this morning was causing those
conditions. aviation guidance does hint that ifr could be possible
due to lowered visibility, but given some question on northern
extent and only a trace of snow left to increase moisture content
for fog at fwa, am a little bit more skeptical of those further
reduced visby readings. there is also plenty of dry low level air
that will need to be overcome and so have left off mvfr cigs with
this issuance. it is possible that fwa gets into it, but don`t have
enough confidence in that given current obs in rain over missouri.

winds look to stay out of the south for the bulk of the taf period
with sustained winds staying below 10 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
233
fxus63 kdtx 141727
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1227 pm est sat feb 14 2026

.key messages...

- no precipitation expected through the weekend.

- chance for some freezing fog development overnight.

- above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

weak and variable flow regime is in place over southeast michigan
today and tonight as weak surface ridge axis will transition into a
weak surface col. have seen a slow lifting of ceilings and
visibility improvements at kmbs early today. after the first hour of
the taf period , vfr conditions are expected at all sites this
afternoon and evening. weak easterly flow tonight with boundary
layer moisture from snow melt brings the potential for fog sunday
morning. split southern stream jet axis in vicinity of far southern
lower michigan does complicate the setup with the potential for high
cloud cirrus. per nam, condensation pressure deficits, greatest
signal for lifr fog appears it may be at kmbs again tonight,
however, signal out of the rgem suggests areas downwind of a very
cold and ice covered lake erie could observe dense fog at daybreak.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into sunday
morning.

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight and sunday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 am est sat feb 14 2026

discussion...

a diffuse area of high pressure has settled across the great lakes
which has brought about clear conditions this morning and will lead
to another round of dry weather through the day. for the afternoon,
the temperature high forecast is nuanced and will be predicated on
the degree of inland advancement of the stratus deck now over lake
huron and northern lower michigan. low level flow will veer through
the morning which will accelerate the expansion of the status towards
the tri- cities and northern thumb where it will likely stall out
and eventually scour and deflect back into lake huron as flow begins
to back southwest through the afternoon. influence of both the
northerly flow and overcast conditions for part of the peak diurnal
cycle will have the ability to cap highs in the 30s. for locations
south of the stratus deck, especially closer to the mi/oh border and
metro region, the stronger insolation through a building translucent
cirrus deck and mixing out of the nocturnal inversion with inversion
heights peaking around 7c will push temperatures highs in the 40s,
with highs in the mid to upper 40s not out of the question.

overnight, calm to light winds at the surface and clear skies will
bring the chance for fog development overnight. with temperatures
dropping below the freezing mark, some periodic freezing fog will be
possible. statistical mos guidance lends support for fog development
overnight, possibly dense at times, however, confidence on coverage
is low at this time. will introduce patchy freezing fog to this
forecast package noting the conducive environment for potential
development.

the trend of above normal temperatures and quieter weather will
continue through the early week period. the next probable window for
precipitation will enter between late tuesday night to wednesday as
a pacific wave arrives onshore, inducing low pressure as it traverse
across the rockies, with the low pressure system forecasted to enter
the midwest. ensemble qpf means between the cmce/gefs/eps ensemble
set and respective deterministic output brings high confidence that
the great lakes region will see precipitation, owing to the large
footprint of isentropic ascent along the elongated baroclinic zone.

the higher uncertainty will surround around precipitation type as
cluster phase space analysis continues to highlight the degree of
troughing across the plains as the main point of uncertainty. this
will have impacts on the final track of the low pressure system and
thus degree of warm sector influence across se mi. latest trends
highly a less progressive and thus warmer environment for se mi,
favoring rain as the p-type for a greater portion of the cwa. this
can be seen in the warmer temperatures and shrinking of
interquartile spread within the eps through the metro region, but
overall would need better sampling of the wave to increase
confidence on these early trends. any progressive/cooler solutions
will favor chances for rain/snow or freezing rain. there will be
additional chances for precipitation including some wintry weather
thursday into friday as a secondary wave and low pressure system
moves in through the midwest/great lakes.

marine...

a weak pressure pattern holds across the region this weekend into
early next week as the dominant storm tracks remain directed to the
north and south. this maintains overall benign and mild conditions.
a weak clipper/trough moves into the northern great lakes on sunday
with a slight uptick in s to ssw wind to around 10 to 15 kt. a
similar weak system moves through on monday as well. a period of
more active weather is then likely by the middle of next week with
multiple low pressure systems tracking through the region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.