Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
808
fxus61 kcle 212005
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
405 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

.what has changed...
morning and early afternoon rain and storms have exited the
area. we are now monitoring for storms to track into at least
portions of the area this evening as a cold front moves in from
the northwest.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, especially
across northeast oh and northwest pa. a few storms may be
severe, with damaging winds the greatest risk.

2) anomalously-cool air mass arrives on wednesday with lake-
effect showers possible.

3) temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the first two rounds of convection have departed the area. a
cold front extends from southeast lower mi into northern indiana
and will sweep southeast across the area this evening. organized
convection is ongoing from the thumb of michigan into southern
ontario, with a few more isolated cells farther southwest along
the front. the thunderstorms occurring from mi into on are being
aided by a vort max that`s very evident on water vapor imagery.

the thinking is that isolated to scattered convection will play
out this evening across our area. the greatest confidence,
coverage, and potential severity is expected from far northeast
oh into northwest pa, as the more organized activity aided by
the vort max from mi into on builds east-southeast. very dry
mid-levels, a warm layer around 600mb, and weaker forcing make
coverage and severity of any convection farther west-southwest
across our area more questionable. mlcape of 1000-2000 j/kg,
dcape values increasing to 700-1000 j/kg (higher west), and
effective bulk shear values remaining in the 40-50kt range can
support organized convection with a severe threat through this
evening, especially across far northeast oh and northwest pa.
potential limitations include the generally poor mid-levels
mentioned above (especially farther west), more modest low-level
lapse rates farther east across our area due to limited
heating, and effective storm relative helicity (srh) values
gradually weakening to 100-150 m2/s2.

overall, there`s greater confidence in convection with
potential for a couple or few severe storms across far northeast
oh and northwest pa after 4 pm. damaging winds would be the
main hazard, though a bit of hail and perhaps a low-end tornado
threat can`t be fully ruled out here. farther west, closer to
and west of the i-77 corridor, more isolated storms are favored
as the front moves through this evening with lower confidence in
any severe weather threat. the environment can support a
damaging wind risk if we see any storms that are deep/organized
enough to become severe farther west, though overall confidence
is lower. any severe risk should diminish by 9 pm, though a few
showers/storms may linger through about midnight as the front
continues across the area and as we potentially see a lake
enhanced shower or storm come off the lake behind the front.

key message 2...
quite the airmass change behind the front as we head into
wednesday. 850mb temperatures will dip to around 8c on
wednesday, supporting surface highs struggling to get much above
70. overnight lows will dip into the 50s and lower 60s tonight,
and then well into the 50s wednesday and thursday nights.
typical colder spots from interior eastern oh into interior pa
should see some 40s one or both of those nights.

it will be chilly enough aloft for some lake effect clouds and
rain showers to come off the lake in the north-northwest flow
overnight tonight through wednesday. this is not a particularly
noteworthy lake effect setup, just enough for meteorologists and
enthusiasts to look at the satellite and radar late tonight or
wednesday and remark "oh, there`s some lake effect on july
22nd". lake effect should largely wind down by wednesday night,
though guidance suggests that a land breeze may focus some lake
effect near the south shore of lake erie through early thursday,
so the forecast maintains some low pops through early thursday.

key message 3...
troughing will gradually lift out of the northeast through this
weekend, allowing our temperatures to gradually warm from the
end of this week into early next week. temperatures may climb
back to above normal by sunday. there is some disagreement over
when the next system comes in, it`s possible monday is quite
warm before the next cold front moves through. mainly dry
weather is expected through the weekend, with more organized
shower and thunderstorm potential returning monday into tuesday
as the next shortwave and cold front drop in.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
showers and thunderstorms are exiting out to the east currently with
mvfr ceilings behind to a line from kcle down through kmfd. any
remaining thunderstorms could drop visibility and ceilings down to
ifr conditions temporarily before rebounding to mvfr. vfr conditions
are seen to the west at ktol and kfdy with a range of scattered to
broken deck from 2-5kft. a cold front will sweep in from the west
late this evening, with possible showers and thunderstorms,
generally east of kcle and kmfd which could bring conditions down to
non-vfr. the majority of precipitation will exit to the east after
midnight with possible lake effect showers at kcle and kyng
overnight into tomorrow morning. there`s potential after the cold
front moves through for ceilings to drop down to mvfr as far west
and south as kmfd and east through keri and kyng with the lake
effect.

winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10-15 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots. within any thunderstorms, gusts as high as 35
knots will be possible. winds will shift with the cold front late
this evening to be out of the north-northwest at around 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the end of the taf
period.

outlook...residual non-vfr possible through late wednesday
evening in lake effect rain showers and clouds across the
eastern half of the area.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are currently around 15-25 knots out of the
west-southwest with waves 2-5 feet with the upper end of those
occurring over the open waters. a strong cold front will pass west to
east across the lake late this evening and winds will shift to be
out of the northwest at 15-25 knots. waves will build as a result
within the near shore zones east of the islands to 3-5 feet with
occasionally waves around 6 feet. a small craft advisory is
currently active for all near shore zones to account for the current
conditions and for the conditions behind the front. the zones to the
west of the islands will see improvements shortly after frontal
passage and the small craft will last until 4am tomorrow morning.
for areas to the east, conditions won`t improve until late wednesday
night. there will be increase rip risk as well from lorain co east
through erie, pa with the increased winds and waves through late
wednesday night as well. for wednesday, there is a marginal risk for
waterspouts within showers as the lake is fairly warm and a colder
air mass moves in from the north. conditions will improve early
thursday morning through saturday night as high pressure builds into
the region. winds will decrease to less than 10 knots by thursday
morning with waves subsiding to less than 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for
ohz010>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt wednesday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 212344
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
743 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

.key messages...

- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake
michigan beaches through wednesday night. stay dry when waves
are high.

- dry, cooler and less humid conditions expected through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 133 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

a secondary cold front moving in from the northwest will kick
off another round of showers and storms across the forecast
area this afternoon. with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
and temperatures rising into the mid 80s, conditions are ripe
for a few storms with heavy rain. mucape is 2000-3000 j/kg and
there is moderate shear around 40 kts, so cannot rule out
isolated damaging wind gusts, but confidence is low in severe
weather. however, this front will sag to the south-southwest
through the evening and subsidence and cooler/drier air will
follow, suppressing convection.

winds will shift to the north behind the front tonight, and lake
enhanced clouds and showers are expected to develop off of
southern lake michigan late tonight and into wednesday with the
cooler air aloft and warmer lake temperatures in place. lows on
wednesday
morning will be in the 50s while parts of lake michigan surface
water temperatures are currently in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
not expecting much of accumulation from any of the showers but
will be enough to keep areas near the lake damp on wednesday.
otherwise mild and dry conditions will prevail through saturday
with the storm track staying south of the area. high pressure
will start to build in on sunday and temperature will warm back
into the upper 80s. moisture will also return with a chance for
showers and storms sunday night and monday as a series of
shortwaves is forecast to ride over the top of the ridge into
the great lakes and ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 710 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

lake-enhanced cloudiness and perhaps a few light showers will be
the primary aviation highlight through the taf period, generally
resulting in bkn-ovc sky coverage around 3500-5000 feet agl
tonight through much of the day on wednesday. confidence remains
low whether this will result in mvfr ceilings, particularly at
ksbn. have opted to continue with a vfr forecast with 3500 foot
ceilings, though occasional lowering to 2500-3000 feet cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through thursday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late wednesday night for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...hammer

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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739
fxus63 kdtx 212312
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
712 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

.key messages...

- there remains an isolated risk for strong thunderstorms early this
evening with the passage of a cold front.

- dry conditions with temperatures dipping below average during the
mid to late week period.

- next chance of precipitation saturday night into sunday.

&&

.aviation...

the primary cold front, crossing the i-69 corridor at forecast
issuance, moves quickly through the rest of se mi this evening.
convection consists of a few struggling showers out ahead of the
front with a broken line of showers along the front itself. surface
based cape of 1000-1500 j/kg generally south of i-69 still requires
monitoring for an isolated stronger storm along lingering outflows
and before the front exits into ontario and ohio before midnight.

dry weather post front turns the forecast toward cloud trends for
the late night and wednesday morning. early evening observations
show scattered to broken mvfr coverage immediately post front where
strong cold and dry air advection maintains a well mixed boundary
layer. mvfr ceiling solidifies farther north in northern lower and
the u.p. which has a chance to make downslope into the saginaw
valley after midnight and then down toward ptk before sunrise.
daytime heating and cooler/dry nw flow gusting near 20 knots then
quickly mix out remaining clouds by afternoon leaving
scattered/shallow cumulus until evening.

d21/dtw convection... the evening time window for thunderstorms
closes as the primary cold front exits the dtw area from 02z-03z.
thunderstorms are then not in the forecast for the rest of tonight
and wednesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and wednesday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

discussion...

surface cold front begins the process of dropping through the region
this evening maintaining scattered convection across the north for
the early evening before shifting south for the latter half.
available instability decreases through the rest of the day (mlcape
falling from ~2000 j/kg towards 1400 j/kg) resulting in lessening
coverage as the evening progresses. coverage is expected to be more
isolated to widely scattered in nature once the front reaches the
southern half of the area late evening- partly from arrival late in
the diurnal window and partly from drier air in place (dewpoints in
the lower 60s vs the northern upper 60s). any strong to severe storm
chance remains isolated at best as mlcape falls sub 1500 j/kg with
shear values holding around 25-30kts.

frontal passage ushers in a markedly cooler airmass as 850mb temps
fall from mid teens to mid single digits (c) overnight dropping lows
toward the lower 50s. upper troughing and associated thermal
troughing settles across the great lakes for the midweek period
leading to seasonably cool temperatures. coolest day of the week is
wednesday where highs only reach the lower 70s with overnight lows
around 50, some 10-15 degrees below normal for late july. trough
axis shifts east over southern ontario by thursday allowing for
slight warming (850mb in the upper single digits c) supporting high
temps closer to the mid/upper 70s.

warm advection eventually redevelops friday as quasi-zonal mid-upper
flow expands across the great lakes allowing highs to return around
80. building upper ridging over the central conus this weekend
drives a weak periphery shortwave into the great lakes late saturday
night-sunday offering the area`s next shot seeing some scattered
rain. upper 80s also look to make a return late weekend/early next
week as upper ridging builds east into the central great lakes.

marine...

upper level disturbance tracking across northern michigan has led to
numerous thunderstorms across lake huron and saginaw bay. a few of
these storms have exhibited strong to severe potential, with
damaging winds of 35 to 50 knots and frequent lightning the main
concerns through early evening. a cold front tracking through this
evening then clears out remaining instability to bring decreasing
thunderstorm coverage, while also shifting winds to the northwest. a
quick pop in wind gusts toward gale force arrives this evening,
centered around 00z (8pm local) just along/behind the frontal
passage. still thinking the duration of gales will be short enough
to fall below warning criteria, but will monitor observations
closely for a short-fused product. strong cold advection will
continue through wednesday, maintaining breezy northwest flow
through the day and keeping small craft advisories in effect. beach
hazards statements are also likely again wednesday. high pressure
then fills in for the latter half of the week, resulting in a
quieter pattern for the great lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt wednesday for lhz422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.