Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
397
fxus61 kcle 032343
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
743 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

.what has changed...
have added some fog to the forecast for late tonight and early
tuesday morning, but otherwise the forecast remains on track and
no impactful changes were needed.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather expected through tuesday before shower and
thunderstorm chances return wednesday through late week. near normal
temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will maintain influence over the region through
tuesday, resulting in widespread dry weather over the next
couple of days. patchy to areas of radiation fog are possible
at inland locations primarily across ne oh/nw pa due to clear
skies and light winds, but as of now the likelihood of
significant impacts to visibilities is low.

rain chances will increase as a shortwave/weakening upper low
lifts north/northeast from the ohio valley on wednesday.
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible primarily in
the southeastern part of the area wednesday afternoon/evening,
but it`s still possible that most locations remain dry until an
upper trough and frontal boundary approach from the west
thursday and move across the area on friday. will need to keep
an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall late in the week given
mean flow parallel to the frontal boundary and forecast dew
points in the upper 60s and possibly lower 70s. there`s also
some potential for organized and perhaps strong thunderstorms at
some point late in the week, but confidence in the timing and
placement of synoptic features and the resulting thunderstorm
chances is still low at this point in the forecast cycle. rain
chances continue through the upcoming weekend as a series of
disturbances potentially cross the area.

temperatures will be near normal for the next several days with
temps possibly increasing to slightly above normal values over
the weekend. highs will be in the 80s each day with overnight
lows in the 60s, although tonight will be an exception with lows
in the 50s.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
high pressure will remain in place through tuesday, with
widespread vfr conditions and light/variable winds across the
region tonight. there is a moderate risk for patchy mvfr/ifr
fog development overnight, however, any fog that does develop
will be short-lived and will dissipate quickly after sunrise.
few-sct cumulus with bases 030-050 are possible tuesday
afternoon.

outlook...periods of showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
conditions will develop across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania wednesday afternoon and evening. showers, and
occasional storms, will become more widespread across the
region thursday, and continue through the weekend.

&&

.marine...
winds become variable under 10kts tonight through wednesday as
high pressure drifts further away from the southern great lakes.
wave heights less than a foot mornings and evenings, but could
be around a foot or so during the afternoon hours through
wednesday. southwest winds 10kts expected thursday and friday
with wave heights around a foot for the central and eastern
basin, and less than a foot in the western basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...27
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
773
fxus63 kiwx 032325
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
725 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions into wednesday. expect partly to mostly clear
skies and light winds. highs will range from 77 to 86 degrees,
warmest wednesday.

- chances for showers and storms return wednesday night and
persist into the weekend. the best potential (~30-60 percent)
will be wednesday night into thursday, then periods of
showers with generally lower chances (~20 to 40 percent)
through the weekend. highs will be in the 80s thursday into
the weekend, warmest sunday.

- warmer and more humid airmass moves into the region early next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 118 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

upper level ridge axis sitting right over the region and then
goes back southwestward into the four corners region. this will
keep mostly clear skies across the area through wednesday
morning. pretty seasonable temperatures will also continue
across the area with highs in the upper 70s near lake michigan
and low 80s elsewhere through wednesday.

troughing centered over central canada will begin to push
south and eastward into the upper midwest and then into the
great lakes and will increase chances for showers/thunderstorms
for mainly the northwestern parts of the cwa by wednesday
evening and spread southeastward over the rest of the area
by early thursday as a cold front pushes through. the better
chances for precipitation at this time will be on thursday with
generally 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation across the
area. wpc has our cwa under a marginal chance of exceeding flash
flood guidance for wednesday night through thursday with pwats
of around 1.5" to almost 2" and surface dew points in the 70s along
and ahead of the frontal boundary. so will need to watch
carefully on how this develops over the next few days. a more
cyclonic flow to zonal flow then remains over the area well into
the weekend. this will bring the potential for periods of
showers/thunderstorms especially during the afternoon/early
evening periods.

ridging then develops over the southeast conus by monday and
builds northward into our area. this will bring warmer and more
humid conditions across the region next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 724 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

high pressure will bring tranquil conditions through the period.
some patchy ground fog remains possible again tue morning but
confidence in impacts is too low to include in the taf`s.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
423
fxus63 kdtx 032249
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
649 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

.key messages...

- more sunshine tomorrow with highs in the 80s.

- the next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives wednesday
afternoon (north of m-59). better coverage is expected wednesday
night and thursday.

- mainly dry weather is expected to start the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

dry and stable conditions will prevail through tuesday as high
pressure maintains influence across the region. this will support
mainly clear skies outside of a limited coverage of high based
diurnal vfr cu tuesday. light and variable winds exist tonight, then
emerging from the south with a modest wind speed tuesday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through tuesday
afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 240 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

discussion...

a much drier airmass is in place over southeast michigan today, as
the 12z dtx sounding checked in with a pw value of 0.72 inches and
28 c dew point depression at 700 mb. the 850-700 mb theta-e trough
will mostly hold in place through wednesday morning, as southeast
michigan lies in between the moisture axis from the advancing cold
front to the west and the large upper-level low/atlantic moisture
over southeastern united states. ultimately, the moisture axis with
the cold front will swing through wednesday night into thursday as
broad trough axis over the northern plains swings through the great
lakes region thursday into friday. timing, of course, plays a key
role in how much instability/cape will be in place to support
possible thunderstorms. at this point, cape/bulk shear profiles are
not overly impressive and remain on the lower side, so expecting
mainly non-severe storms with perhaps a marginal risk at best if
optimal timing works out. regardless, euro ensembles still show high
probability (~70 percent) of a tenth of an inch of more of qpf in
the wednesday evening through thursday evening time frame as the
front slowly tracks from northwest to southeast. even if the surface
front slips just south of the michigan border by friday morning, a
stronger shortwave lagging behind could still be sufficient to
trigger additional showers on friday south of m-59. both 12z
canadian and euro are showing similar solutions with this shortwave.

not much to note with respect to temperatures, as highs reach into
the 80s each day through the weekend, with mins mainly in the upper
50s to mid 60s (outside of tonight when mins fall into the 50s).

marine...

high pressure is firmly established across the central great lakes
today offering dry weather and light winds. winds decrease further
tonight while backing south-southwesterly by tuesday as the center
of the surface ridge slides across lake erie into appalachia. a weak
cold front will move in from the west and briefly stall out over
lake huron wednesday. this provides the first opportunity for
showers and a few thunderstorms for the latter half of the week.
several disturbances are expected to ripple through atop the
boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through thursday as the
front resumes forward progress toward the southern waterways. the
pressure gradient response appears minor through this period,
ensuring no long-fused headlines before the end of the week. drier
weather may briefly return friday and/or saturday, but the front
will stall out again in the vicinity, keeping low chances for
thunder nearby.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.