Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 170759
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
259 am est tue feb 17 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) above average temperatures expected through friday with seasonal
temperatures this weekend into early next week.

2) series of low pressure system will pass through the region
through the weekend bringing rain showers on wednesday and thursday
night, and possible snow showers this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
temperatures through friday will remain above average due to upper
level ridging over the eastern conus and persistent west to
southwesterly flow over the region. wednesday will be the warmest
day of the week with high probability of temperatures hitting the
low to mid 60s during the day. this will be in part due to a warm
front moving south to north across the area ahead of an approaching
low pressure system. temperatures will moderate slightly behind the
low and rain showers on wednesday, but highs will stay above average
in the 50s. another low pressure system will pass through the great
lakes region on friday sweeping a cold front that will drop
temperatures to be more seasonal. highs will be in the 40s on
saturday before dropping into the 30s for sunday and for the start
of next week.

additional impacts include potential ice jams along rivers and
streams throughout the region. accompanied by the rain showers on
wednesday, there is a possibility of seeing a minor river response
as frozen rivers begin to deteriorate and break apart. will continue
to monitor the rivers over the next few days for potential flooding
concerns.

key message 2...
rain showers return to the region on wednesday as a low pressure
system enters into the western great lakes. a warm front will lift
north through the region wednesday morning followed by a weak cold
front wednesday afternoon into the evening. there is higher
probability of rain showers along the warm front as it pushes into
the northern portion of the cwa as that will be where the strongest
frontogenesis will be. the cold front will enter from the west in
the afternoon and bring more widespread potential for rainfall.
generally, qpf is around a 0.10" to 0.20" for the majority of the
area. the highest amounts will be in northeastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania as they could see 0.30" to 0.40". there
will be a minor amounts of cape (250-400 j/kg) with this system
so can`t rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder or two
during the afternoon. winds will be gusty during the day
supported by a 40-50 knot llj across the region. gusts will be
around 30 to 40mph with the strongest winds expected in western
ohio during the afternoon with frontal passage.

another chance for precipitation will be thursday evening into
friday as another low moves northeast from the mid-mississippi
valley into the great lakes. rain showers will begin late thursday
evening as a warm front passes through and will be followed quickly
by the cold front. any precipitation should end by friday
afternoon/early evening. as colder air moves in behind the system,
any lingering rain showers will change over to a rain snow mix, then
over to snow completely later in the evening given that
precipitation is still occurring. snow chances will return again on
sunday as an upper level low moves through the great lakes region
with possible lake enhanced snow showers behind the system to begin
next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
low stratus continues across the region early this morning but
has struggled to translate to fog with surface winds continuing
around 10 knots with occasional gusts to 20 kts. this low
stratus deck will continue through the overnight but may
actually shrink with time. some of the stratus may become fog in
the south but may end up missing the terminals. conditions will
again slowly mix out late this morning into the afternoon and
non-vfr conditions may persist until 15-17z at kcak and kyng,
perhaps others. a mid-level cloud deck will enter the region and
should allow for prevailing vfr at all terminals with light
southwest winds.

outlook...non-vfr conditions possible wednesday and thursday
night into friday in rain showers.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds on lake erie will shift out of the northeast this
afternoon. easterly winds increase to 10-20 knots tonight, then veer
to southwesterly at 15-20 knots on wednesday as a warm front lifts
north across lake erie. another enhanced window of winds is expected
thursday night into friday as easterly winds of 15-20 knots become
southwesterly at 20-25 knots with the passage of a cold front.

multiple periods with elevated winds along with much above normal
temperatures across the region this week will continue to rot the
ice with ice floes expected. shore ice may break off and any
available shipping channels may be closed. it is important for
people to stay off the ice this week or risk getting stranded. in
addition, the warmer air overspreading the cold lake will result in
areas of fog this afternoon and on wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...sefcovic
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 170712
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
212 am est tue feb 17 2026

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s
through thursday.

- rain showers are likely tonight into wednesday morning, and
again thursday into thursday night.

- cooler by this weekend with chances for rain and snow showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 am est tue feb 17 2026

slightly stronger southerly flow on the backside of sfc high
pressure, and areas of mid-high clouds in a broad waa regime,
should reduce the fog threat for most this morning when compared
to yesterday. another mild/dry day otherwise today as shortwave
ridging overspreads in advance of an upper trough and sfc low
lifting northeast into the upper midwest and western great lakes
tonight into wednesday. a relatively deep corridor of moist
isentropic ascent will precede this wave under the left exit
region of an incoming ~160 kt upper jet later this evening
through wednesday morning. better low level convergence near a
developing frontal zone primarily sets up just north of the
area, though still expect at least scattered/numerous showers
given the sufficient moisture advection and incoming steeper mid
level lapse rates. rainfall amounts should overall remain on
the light side (<0.20", heaviest north), though localized
heavier amounts cannot be ruled out in any gusty convective
elements wed am. dry slot and associated warm sector should
become well established then by wed pm with breezy/mild
conditions (near record high temps) behind a dry line type
feature.

additional chances for rain and perhaps some thunder will increase
thursday into thursday night as a secondary shortwave emerges out of
the rockies and rotates a deepening sfc low northward into the
western and northern great lakes. a colder, more seasonable, air
mass will then rotate in behind this system later friday into the
weekend. several shortwaves will also rotate through in this colder
cyclonic flow with periodic chances for snow showers.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 102 am est tue feb 17 2026

a sheared upper level vort max across the great lakes will allow
sfc trough/cold front to make some southward progress across the
southern great lakes overnight. however, sheared nature of this
wave and upstream mid level ridging building from the west will
not allow this boundary to make significant southward push as
it loses its integrity across central/southern lower michigan.
given relatively weak pre-frontal flow, some concern for patchy
fog formation this morning, but warm advection induced mid
clouds and broad nature of warm advection will make this
potential less widespread than yesterday morning. did continue
trend of previous taf issuance with the 06z issuance in a more
optimistic vsby/cig forecast (short duration mvfr, tempo ifr).
confidence in ifr conditions continues to diminish some with
time, so will continue to assess this potential overnight for
possible amendments. poor mixing today will keep sfc wind speeds
generally less than 10 knots. for tonight, attention turns to
more potent upper level trough across central conus with more
appreciable low level moisture advection after 00z. some
advection wing rain is possible in the evening for ksbn
vicinity, with more widespread rain and greater potential of
more ifr cigs after this forecast valid period into early
wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 170447
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1147 pm est mon feb 16 2026

.key messages...

- mild temperatures will persist through thursday.

- the next round of precipitation is on schedule for tuesday night
and wednesday. all rain is expected with a low chance for freezing
rain north of m 46.

- a rain/snow mix moves in by friday followed by a temperature drop
back toward mid/late february normals this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

weak cold frontal boundary on track to ease into the region
overnight. notable increase in mid level cloud during the early-mid
morning hours. this occurs as visibility again dips within patchy
areas of fog development. high cloud coverage may mitigate a greater
response in terms of dense fog, but expectation again tonight for a
mix of mvfr and ifr visibility restrictions to prevail for most
locations through the morning hours. in addition, expansion region
of lower status building southward out of northern lower michigan
behind the front may provide mainly mbs with a period of very low
stratus late this morning. any stratus development will prove slow
to lift and scatter tuesday. light southwest wind emerging from the
east tuesday. renewed expansion of lowers stratus expected within
moistening easterly flow tonight, with rain increasing in coverage
by early wednesday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight into
tuesday morning.

* low for cig at or below 5000 feet late tonight thru tuesday
morning. high tuesday night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 315 pm est mon feb 16 2026

discussion...

a cluster of showers and thunderstorms traversed northern lower mi
today, associated with a compact mid level short wave. current
observational trends indicate the rain remaining north of the thumb
late this afternoon. south of this feature, southerly flow has
driven an axis of warm low level air across se mi. enough diurnal
mixing has occurred today to drive temps into the 50s over much of
the forecast area. weak sfc low pressure trailing the precipitation
across the northern lakes will track east of lake huron tonight and
will drive a weak cold front into se mi. weakening of the sfc flow,
nocturnal cooling and ample boundary layer moisture will provide
favorable conditions for fog and low stratus development. sfc high
pressure will expand across lake huron on tuesday, allowing an
easterly component to the surface winds. this will suppress tuesday
highs a bit in relation to today, with forecast highs in the 40s
(30s near the lake huron shore).

an upper wave will translate across the midwest tues night and
across lower mi wednesday. excellent deep layer moist isentropic
ascent will proceed this wave, aided by the ageostrophic response
within the exit region of a 160 knot upper jet. the ascent will be
focused overnight tuesday into wednesday morning. this combined with
efficient gulf moisture transport will support widespread rain. wet
bulb cooling within the easterly flow may allow temps to drop below
freezing for a time across portions of midland/bay/huron counties
tues night. this will warrant a mention of freezing rain in these
areas. given the surge of warm air, the risk for anything more than
a glaze of icing looks minimal. steepening mid level lapse rates
within the ascent will also support a slight chance of
thunderstorms. the passage of the mid level trough will allow mid
level drying to take hold during the latter half of the day
wednesday. the upper wave is forecast to become more elongated
across the northern lakes wednesday. this and the icy waters of the
great lakes will limit the northward progress of the associated warm
front into se mi wednesday. model guidance is supportive of highs
reaching the upper 50s/lower 60s south and upper 30s/lower 40s
across the northern saginaw valley and thumb.

there is reasonable model agreement showing a secondary wave
emerging in the lee of the central rockies and rotating into the
great lakes thurs night into friday, proving the next chance for
precipitation, mainly rain. seasonally cold air is forecast to
circulate around this system and into se mi friday/saturday.

marine...

widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms exit into ontario over
the next hour or so, driven by the surface low that is currently
tracking across northern michigan. this low pushes into lake huron
this evening while a strong inversion just off the deck caps gusts
around 20 knots. the system`s cold front sags across lower michigan
overnight, eventually setting up a deformation axis that splits flow
from northwest across lake huron to southwest across lake erie.
meanwhile, the next low pressure system deepens upstream causing
winds to organize out of the east-southeast locally by tuesday
night. elevated portions of the warm front expand across the
waterways wednesday, but enough depth to the cold air remains in
place across northern lake huron to mix down enhanced low level jet
winds. a gale watch has been issued north of sturgeon point as
easterly gusts reach 35 to 40 knots for most of the daytime hours
wednesday. marine areas south of sturgeon point likely see rain with
this system, with increasing chances for wintry mix to the north.
next round of elevated wind potential comes friday as another low
pressure system impacts the great lakes region.

hydrology...

widespread rain will precede an upper wave and associated warm front
tuesday night into wednesday. there has been a slight reduction in
forecast rainfall totals in the latest probabilistic guidance,
suggesting low to moderate probabilities for one quarter to one half
inch of rain south of i-95 and low to moderate probabilities for a
half to three quarters inch north. the rain will occur on top of a
melting snowpack that has a snow water equivalent analysis ranging
between 0.5" to 1". the combination of rain and snow melt on frozen
ground may lead to rises on area streams and rivers. ponding of
water on roads is also possible, especially where drains could be
blocked by snow and/or winter debris.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from late tuesday night through wednesday afternoon for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sc
marine.......mv
hydrology....sc

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.