Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
886
fxus61 kcle 150649
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
249 am edt wed jul 15 2026

.what has changed...
wildfire smoke is expected to affect the region wednesday night
into thursday. there is uncertainty but it could linger into
friday and saturday. the probability for showers and
thunderstorms has increased (now 60-80%) saturday but decreased
sunday (now 10-20%).

&&

.key messages...
1) peak heat indices of 95 to 105 degrees are expected today
resulting in major heatrisk (level 3 of 4) areawide.

2) wildfire smoke to affect the region tonight and thursday.

3) periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected friday
through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mid/upper-level high continues to affect the region with hot and
humid conditions today. highs in the low to mid 90s are expected
areawide with heat indices ranging from the mid 90s in the
lakeshore areas of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania to
as high as 104 in parts of northwest ohio. major heatrisk (level
3 of 4) will affect the entire forecast area today. this
means that heat-related illnesses could impact much of the
population without effective cooling or hydration. the heat
advisory is unchanged and remains in effect from 12 pm through
8 pm today.

key message 2...
smoke from wildfires in northern minnesota and ontario is
projected to impact the region starting wednesday evening, and
will spread south across the area late wednesday night into
thursday. expect reduced air quality and hazy conditions. smoke
could linger through at late as saturday, though there is a high
degree of uncertainty due to limited model data beyond thursday.

key message 3...
the mid/upper ridge will start to become suppressed farther
southwest into the ohio and tennessee valleys wednesday night
and thursday in response to a mid/upper trough deepening over
eastern canada, setting up broad northwest flow aloft over our
region this weekend into early next week.

a shortwave will move southeast across the area on saturday.
this will promote the development of storms late friday
afternoon, spreading eastward through friday night. the best
forcing for ascent will be on saturday as the shortwave gets
closer, with a more likely period of showers and thunderstorms
saturday afternoon through saturday night. modest mid-level flow
and instability would support a severe weather threat. however,
there is some uncertainty with timing and strength of this
system. even so, model guidance are starting to pinpoint
saturday as the day to watch.

after a mostly dry period on sunday, another shortwave is set to
bring more periodic showers and thunderstorms monday into
tuesday.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are seen across the region with scattered high
clouds. the main impact during this taf period and the following
days are the potential for wildfire smoke across the region. current
models have the smoke moving in late tonight and persisting through
the day on thursday. though models have slowed down the onset of
smoke in the region which is translated in the current issuance of
tafs with 5sm hz at ktol, kcle, and keri. other taf sites to the
south will see reduced visibility later in the day thursday.

winds across the region tonight will be fairly light at around 5
knots out of the west-southwest. there will be an increase in winds
to around 10 knots out of the west by 13-14z this morning and
persist through the day. winds will become light and variable after
00z tonight.

outlook...non-vfr visibility possible tonight through thursday
due to wildfire smoke. non-vfr likely friday night through
saturday night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
wind and waves across lake erie this morning will continue to
diminish to less than 10 knots and less than 2 feet as high
pressure builds into the region throughout the day. a weak cold
front will move north to south across the lake late tonight and
winds will shift to be out of the north at 5-10 knots and waves
around a foot or less. through late friday night, winds will
generally be around 5 knots and variable. a warm front will move
north through the region saturday morning and winds will shift
to be out of the south at around 10 knots. unsettled weather is
expected throughout the weekend as a low pressure system moves
through. winds will veer around to the north behind the low and
cold front on sunday and increase to 10-15 knots with waves
building along the shoreline as well.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
494
fxus63 kiwx 150802
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
402 am edt wed jul 15 2026

.key messages...

- hot conditions continue this week.

- chances for showers and storms return late this week into this
weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 340 am edt wed jul 15 2026

not many changes to the ongoing forecast this shift with things
on pretty good track. with the longitudinally elongated ridging
still in place across the central conus including our area, the
hot conditions look to continue. we have a heat advisory in
effect today across the entire area through this evening. dew
points in the lower 70s and high temperatures in the 90s across
the area today will provide heat indices from about 100 to 105.

some questions on exact high temperatures due to high level
smoke pushing southward into the area from the north which has
originated from canada wildfires. the smoke could potentially keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler with slightly less solar
insolation not that it will make for big changes in the hot
conditions but could make it slightly less oppressive. with the
ridging slow to break down the heat looks to linger into the end
of the week albeit slightly cooler.

a weak disturbance moving into the area through the upper level
flow beginning thursday late afternoon and evening look to
bring chances for showers/thunderstorms into friday starting
across the southwestern portions of the area before spreading
northeastward. a better chance for storms then moves into the
area in the form of a trough that ripples southward from canada
on the eastern periphery of a high amplitude upper level ridge
across the central conus northward into western central canada.
still a bit of uncertainty on exact timing and how much moisture
may steam northward due to the ridging, but the afternoon and
evening times each day into the weekend looks to bring showers
and thunderstorms. a cold frontal boundary is expected to push
southward on monday and will bring a shot of cooler than normal
temperatures by the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 137 am edt wed jul 15 2026

vfr conditions expected through this taf period with high
pressure firmly in place over the region. some canadian
wildfire smoke in the upper levels has been drifting over the
region but is not expected to mix down and impact surface
visibilities at this time. light variable to northwestern winds
less than 10 kts through the forecast.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory from noon edt /11 am cdt/ today to 8 pm edt /7
pm cdt/ this evening for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for inz020.
air quality alert until midnight cdt tonight for inz103-203.
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
609
fxus63 kdtx 150715
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
315 am edt wed jul 15 2026

.key messages...

- the heat advisory is in effect until 8 pm edt.

- egle has declared an air quality alert today due to canadian
wildfire smoke reaching the surface and the resultant rise in
pm2.5.

- a few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening.

- increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms friday and
saturday.

&&

.discussion...

an expansive plume of ontario wildfire smoke will spread south
across the region today, reaching the northern forecast area during
the late morning and afternoon hours before expanding south later
this evening. arrival of smoke coinciding with the greater portion
of the diurnal heating cycle could temper projected forecast highs by
1-3f, relative to adjacent locations that stave off the smoke a
little longer. of higher impact, light northerly flow off lake huron
and northeast flow off saginaw bay will further blunt max temperature
potential. this combination will likely bring temperature high
values a little closer to normal values within the thumb and
locations just downwind of the bay. for the majority of locations
outside of the lake and early day smoke influence, well above normal
temperatures return with highs peaking in the mid 90s, possibly upper
90s within the urban corridors. this will produce heat indices aoa
100 degrees and as a result, a heat advisory remains in effect until
8pm edt.

most locations are expected to remain dry under mostly sunny skies
beneath an elevated mixed layer cap. however, a brief window emerges
between roughly 20z (4pm) to 02z (10pm) when the cap relaxes
somewhat in the vicinity of a weak low-level convergence axis
setting up from near jackson northwest towards lansing and grand
rapids. this introduces a low chance (15-20%) of an isolated shower
or thunderstorm, favored along and/or south of the i-696 to i-96
corridor. the aforementioned cap and dry mid-levels bring low
confidence for ci leading to organized convection. however, this
environment will be sitting on 2000-3000 j/kg of cape and around 30
knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. should an isolated storm overcome the
cap and exhibit organization, it would be capable of producing
localized strong wind gusts. this remains a highly conditional
scenario.

the influence of an expansive lake breeze/back door cold front late
tonight will bring some mild relief for overnight temperatures
producing more seasonal values with lows dropping to the low to mid
60s outside of the urban metro region. diffuse high pressure under
strong mid- level subsidence will bring dry conditions tomorrow and
haze with the lingering wildfire smoke. the expansion of wildfire
smoke across se mi will likely temper forecasted high potential
again, bringing some higher confidence for highs holding in the mid
to upper 80s, outside of the urban metro region and saginaw valley
where 90s may be achievable. the lower humidity values will preclude
any heat headlines tomorrow. increasing chances for showers and
storms enter friday and saturday will arrival of some better gulf
moisture along with eventual passage upper-level wave/low pressure
system.

&&

.marine...

hot high pressure retains partial influence over the central great
lakes early this morning. a weak backdoor front drops through today
allowing winds to eventually veer to the northwest behind the front.
wind speeds still only top out around 20 knots through this evening,
more so over the northern half of lake huron. a couple pop-up storms
are possible along the frontal boundary and/or any lake breeze
development late this afternoon. the probability of severe weather
with any isolated storms is low. northwest winds at or below 20
knots expected thursday. lower confidence forecast through the
weekend due to conflicting model guidance regarding the location and
magnitude of a weak surface low passing through lower michigan will
impact wind trends and thunderstorm potential. prevailing winds
should remain below criteria through the forecast period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1141 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

aviation...

strong high pressure aloft will sustain vfr conditions with light
winds into at least early wednesday afternoon. increased low level
convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface front dropping into the
area from the north late wednesday afternoon will only support a low
(less than 20 percent) probability for showers/thunderstorms. the
hrrr near-surface smoke density model suggests the wildfire smoke
from the ongoing fires just north-northwest of lake superior will be
driven across srn lower mi from north to south wed afternoon. the
projected high density of the smoke is likely to result in mvfr based
visibility restrictions.

d21/dtw convection... isolated convection is forecast across mainly
the central and southern portions of the airspace wednesday evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms wednesday evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......kgk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.