Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
334 pm est thu nov 12 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track with no major changes.

&&

.key messages...
1) second round of rain showers with lake-enhancement this
afternoon.

2) lake effect rain and rain/snow mix expected early friday morning
through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface low pressure begins to exit out to the east this afternoon,
moving into the new england region. there will be cold air advecting
in behind the low that will steadily keep temperatures down in the
mid to upper 40s throughout the day. this will help with some lake
enhanced rain showers that will mainly impact the western portion of
the cwa this afternoon as winds will be out of north-northeast.
generally expecting around 0.20-0.40" of qpf for areas west of the i-
71 corridor with the highest amounts centered around
huron/lorain/medina/richland/ashland counties. there will still be
some residual precipitation across northeastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania this afternoon into the evening, though
overall accumulation should be lower than to the west. as
temperatures begin to drop further after sunset, there could be some
rain/snow mix across the higher elevations of northwestern
pennsylvania. not anticipating any accumulation during this time
period as the ground temperatures will still be above freezing
given the warm stretch we`ve had over the past few weeks. winds
will begin backing to be more out of the north by late tonight
early friday morning creating a lull in the precipitation during
that time.

key message 2...
late this evening into early friday morning a shortwave will drop
down through the great lakes rotating around the upper level low
that will bring reinforcing cold air into the region. 850mb
temperatures will drop down to around -6c and 500mb temperatures
down to -25c to -30c by friday morning. this, on top of the lake
temperature being in the mid to upper 50s, will support the
development of lake effect showers across much of the region. flow
will shift around to be predominantly out of the north throughout
the day friday behind the shortwave. lingering precipitation will
continue across northwestern pennsylvania friday morning, and with
flow at that point still east of north, there will be some
connection from the northeast that will help fuel those showers.
there will be some rain/snow mix in that area through the morning,
especially in the higher elevations of pennsylvania though most of
it will be rain.

as the flow shifts to be out of the north friday afternoon/evening,
a lake effect band will begin to develop across the highlands region
of northwestern ohio. flow will continue to shift to be more west of
north by friday night and the band will shift to cover more of north-
central ohio for the overnight period into saturday. temperatures
will begin to drop as well with the cooler air moving in with lows
down into the upper 20s to low 30s. though, with the marine layer
staying warmer due to the warm lake, areas near the lake shore
should stay well above freezing through the period. with that,
expecting that area to stay with rain with precipitation falls. the
line from rain to a rain/snow mix will begin around the higher
elevations of northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania, in the
typical snow belt regions. the axis will continue to shift to the
east as flow shifts to be northwesterly into saturday. qpf
wise, from friday evening onwards, expecting the highest levels
to be across the snow belt areas, generally around 0.25-0.50"
inches. this will be supported by a connection with lake huron
at this point with the shift in the flow. additionally, with
temperatures lower friday night into saturday, this will
transition parts of the region to more snow than rain fall.
though, with the warmer ground not expecting much accumulation,
generally less than inch. a few places across northwestern
pennsylvania could see a couple of inches. the majority of the
area will see a fairly wet, sloppy snow during this event.

lake effect showers will continue across northeastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania saturday into sunday. an upper level ridge
will begin to build into the region late saturday that will shift
the flow to be more northwesterly through saturday night. this will
create a multiple band set up for that region. drier air will begin
to move in as well with the ridge building in that will assist in
limiting moisture and qpf overall across the area where
precipitation is continuing. there maybe another burst of moisture
sunday during the day as another shortwave moves through the western
new york and pennsylvania region that could bring a quick hit to the
northeastern parts of the cwa. this will move out by sunday
afternoon and precipitation will begin to diminish. some lingering
precipitation is possible across northwest pennsylvania but little
to no accumulation is expected.

any precipitation is expected to end by early monday morning as the
ridge and surface high pressure builds over the region. dry weather
is expected afterwards with seasonable temperatures for the
beginning of the week.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
rain showers continue primarily along and east of i-71 this
afternoon. a mix of vfr to mvfr ceilings continue with the
expectation of ceilings reducing to mvfr over the next few
hours as rain showers spread westward as a trough moves south
across the region. behind the trough, showers will become more
lake effect in nature with some wet snow possibly mixing in
during the overnight timeframe.

winds will generally vary between northwest to northeast through
the taf period. sustained wind speeds of 10-15 knots will be
common with periods of isolated gusts to 20-25 knots possible,
primarily closer to lake erie.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend. some wet snow
showers may also be possible tonight through saturday night.

&&

.marine...
elevated flow will be expected through at least saturday with a
low pressure system departing to the east and strong push of
colder air into the region. winds will start out of the
northeast at 20 to 30 kts as a low pressure system slowly moves
through the mid-atlantic states tonight. a cold front behind the
system will swing across the lake and allow for winds to become
more northerly late tonight into friday with winds settling
into the 15 to 20 kt range. a trough will remain over the lake
through saturday and allow for northwest flow in the 15 to 25 kt
range. resultant waves will build back over 4 ft and current
small craft advisories could be extended into the weekend. high
pressure will enter saturday night into sunday and start to
allow for winds to relax over the lake to below 15 kts, ending
any headline need. this system will pass over the lake on
monday, allowing for westerly flow. southerly flow will be
favored on tuesday, as the system departs to the east.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est friday for lez142-143-148-
149.
small craft advisory until 1 pm est friday for lez144>147.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
115 pm est thu nov 12 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect rain showers are expected to mix with and
changeover to snow late tonight into friday. another chance
for lake effect snow occurs friday night into saturday
morning. some light slushy accumulations are possible friday
and again saturday mainly on grassy surfaces. totals are
likely to stay under an inch.

- below normal temperatures today through the weekend followed
by slowly moderating temperatures into the mid and upper 50s
by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1253 pm est thu nov 12 2026

now, with the area under a broad trough, various shortwaves dive
southward through the great lakes region continuing to keep the lake
effect machine invigorated into sunday. during this time, the cold
air at 850 mb lags behind and slowly drops southward finally
reaching the lower great lakes thursday night or early friday
morning. as a shortwave traverses lk mi midday today, this pushes
the lake effect rain area westward, into lots area. some wavering of
trajectories wiggles the main band eastward for a short period of
time early friday morning and possibly again around 00z friday
evening providing additional uncertainty to the forecast. periods of
drier air under the convective moisture column as well as dgz
moistening issues at times during this period likely impinge on
rates and ratios even with some negative theta-e lapse rates and
lake-induced instability to work with. the saturation issues
could cause some drizzle to occur at times. if the band sits in
any one spot in our area, it could snow, but then the rates are
in question given questions about column saturation issues. the
final vigorous vort max pushes through the area saturday
morning and this is also the time that 850 mb temperatures warm
a degree or two and 1000-700 mb shear looks to increase by the
time we get to saturday and so even though trajectories attempt
to gain a more northwest direction, many factors contribute to
weaker snow, especially as trajectories waver minimizing the
band`s residence time in any one location. initially, it was
looking like friday`s snow was going to be the more impactful
dose. however, if there is saturation issues through the column,
then it may be saturday produces more accumulating snow, but
saturday`s snowfall total ceiling is fairly low given the above
points. right now, only have a couple tenths of snow for either
time period. additionally, maxts are expected to reach back into
the 40s both friday and saturday and those should limit
accumulations especially farther from the lake. roadways are
starting warm from our recent above normal temp spell and it
would take heavy rates to get them to accreting temperature.
given the above points, if it snows, it would probably be to
grassy areas only.

as surface high pressure and mid level continue to build into the
area from the west, trajectories gain more of a southerly component
shutting off the lake effect machine and drying out the area. given
the place of the surface high overtime, a transition to a warm
advection pattern takes over and high temperatures are able to
gradually warm back through the 40s to the 50s by tuesday or
wednesday. however, low temperatures overnight will be at or below
freezing starting even tonight and won`t rise above 32 again until
late week next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1231 pm est thu nov 12 2026

cyclonic, northwesterly flow continues this afternoon and
evening with winds sustained around 10-13 kts and gusts between
20-25 kts. lake effect rain showers continue downwind of lake
michigan in nw indiana, including at ksbn. another wave of
showers is likely to pass through ne indiana and nw ohio this
evening, including at kfwa, as a trough pivots through. mvfr
ceilings prevail through the early overnight hours, with a brief
period of ifr ceilings possible at kfwa as that trough comes
through around sunset. dry conditions return after 06z with a
gradual, slow return to vfr ceilings possible during the day
friday as the main lake effect band shifts west.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
358 pm est thu nov 12 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers continue this evening following passage of a cold
front this afternoon.

- air becomes sufficiently cold for lake effect rain/snow activation
late tonight and friday morning.

- minor slushy snow accumulation is likely across the thumb, mainly
near saginaw bay and near the lake huron shoreline, southward
toward the i-69 corridor.

- rain/snow showers gradually shift offshore friday night and
saturday with little additional snow accumulation.

&&

.discussion...

there are no big changes to expectations on the forecast for the
overall lake effect event late tonight through friday. the inverted
surface pressure trough overhead this afternoon moves southward as
the sharp mid level trough moves east this evening. ne low level
wind trailing the system carries colder air into lower mi, colder
but still on the mild side in lake effect context. this leaves the
larger scale thermal environment dominated by warm lake huron
temperatures, warm adjoining se mi land areas, and the air mass
itself as supported by observations upstream across ontario this
afternoon. this is expected to extend the transition timing of rain
to rain/snow mix to all snow that is otherwise on track for mainly
after midnight through sunrise. slushy accumulation up to 2 inches
toward the thumb shorelines is the outcome with greatest forecast
confidence.

as lake effect instability ramps up late tonight and friday morning,
model solutions still offer dominant band locations off the south
shore of saginaw bay and along the thumb shoreline of lake huron
down to about the i-69 corridor. convective depth in model soundings
peaks around 10 kft with high cape density that enables updrafts
induced by lake instability reaching well through the dgz and in
excess of -20c. along with a stray lightning strike, this amount of
instability and high moisture content produces a greater than normal
cellular/convective character within the areas of dominant band
coverage defined by the mean nne wind field, leading to some spatial
and temporal variation on the most intense lake effect snow showers.
the 12/12z nbm cycle seems to reflect some of this variation with a
slight downward trend on max qpf, max snow accumulation, and some
broadening of the qpf/snow footprint. as suggested by hi-res models
and ensembles, a window for accumulation overachievement is still in
play given the chance of a colder profile caused by the high
precipitation intensity. the lake effect is highly convective, but
also highly variable, which considerably reduces predictability and
better monitored for short fused forecast adjustments in later
updates. the best forecast message for this update carries forward an
inch or two of slushy accumulation with a chance for localized
higher totals until bands shift closer to the shoreline or offshore
during friday afternoon.

a transition toward a nw flow configuration across lower mi begins
friday night to further the offshore lake effect trend. additional
activity grazes the thumb shoreline while thermal profiles remain
relatively warm and convective depth gradually diminishes after
midnight through saturday morning. the best chance for additional
light, slushy accumulation is during the diurnal minimum friday
night and saturday morning. however, boundary layer thermal profiles
warm sufficiently in model soundings for an all rain precip type and
really don`t cool back to near or below freezing before bands shift
more fully into southern lake huron saturday afternoon.

the highly amplified mid/upper air pattern shifts slowly eastward
sunday into early next week. low level cold air is carried out of
the great lakes as high pressure moves overhead, deactivating the
lakes and decreasing clouds sunday night. normal high temperatures
are now in the mid to upper 40s which is in the range of advertised
guidance high temperatures that gradually warm back above normal
toward the mid week period.

&&

.marine...

northeast to north flow takes hold today in the wake of a departing
low pressure system which will usher in cooler air across the
seasonally warmer waters of lake huron. this will continue to
maintain breezy conditions across the great lakes where gusts around
20 to 30 knots are expected. localized stronger gust potential will
be possible through the saginaw bay this evening given the more
favorable northeast fetch. some isolated gusts to gales will be
possible during this time. otherwise, small craft advisories remain
in effect for all nearshore locations given the elevated gusts, in
addition to the elevated wave heights found within the saginaw bay
and lake huron shoreline.

wind gusts then decrease slightly overnight, but the maintenance of
northerly flow supporting cooler air temperatures will retain gusts
around 20 to 25 knots across lake huron. additionally, a couple of
prominent lake effect bands are expected to develop overnight across
the central and southern lake huron basin. precipitation type will
likely be rain over the water given the warmer lake temperatures,
but a rain/snow mix will be possible closer to the shoreline. an
isolated waterspout remains possible with rain shower activity. high
pressure to build in on sunday, relaxing wind speeds and ending lake
effect rain chances.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1243 pm est thu nov 12 2026

aviation...

surface trough continues to sink across lower mi maintaining
scattered shower chances through late afternoon. ceilings remain
chaotic ranging from high ifr to lower vfr though the bulk of the
area holds under mvfr skies into this evening. lake effect showers,
with some snow potentially mixing in, begin to develop late this
evening leading to transient pockets of precip and minor vsby
reductions. this is expected to transition into 2 dominant bands,
one off saginaw bay and southern lake huron, by early friday
morning. within the highest intensity positions of these bands most
if not all snow would be the primary p-type. currently, fnt/det
stand the best shot to be directly downwind so opted for prevailing
snow mention- det likely stays warm enough to allow for a mix rather
than all snow. driving lower level winds being to shift by friday
afternoon directing ongoing lake effect activity east of the
terminal corridor towards the st clair river/southern ontario.

for dtw... scattered rain shower chances persist through the
remainder of the afternoon before drier conditions return for the
evening. some pockets of light rain are possible late evening, tied
to developing lake effect, but low confidence that these track
overhead. main lake effect bands fully form by friday morning with
the closest favored more toward det. that said, pieces of this
activity could break off and reach dtw particularly late morning-
early afternoon. temperatures would be warm enough to support a rain-
snow mix in this outcome with minimal if any accumulation.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through friday afternoon.

* high for p-type as rain through 06z tonight. medium for rain-snow
with any precip after 06z into friday afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est saturday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......am
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.