Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
315 am est mon jan 5 2026

.what has changed...
precipitation chances were increased to account for potential
post-frontal lake-enhanced rain/snow showers late tuesday night
into early wednesday morning. otherwise, no significant changes
needed.

&&

.key messages...
1) a weak shortwave may produce scattered light snow showers
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania early this
morning.

2) warming temperatures and a wet weather pattern tuesday
through saturday will result in a melting snowpack across the
area.

3) seasonable temperatures and chances of lake effect snow
return late in the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a weak shortwave may produce scattered light snow showers
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania early this
morning.

the shortwave will move east across lake erie early this
morning, which could result in light snow showers across ne
oh/nw pa. however, a ridge building into the region will likely
push the best low level moisture to the north of the local
area, which would result in the majority of the precipitation
remaining outside of the cwa. as of now, it appears that erie
county, pa will have the best shot at seeing light snow showers,
although little or no snow accumulation is expected. dry
weather is anticipated by mid to late morning and will persist
through tonight.

key message 2...

warming temperatures and a wet weather pattern tuesday through
saturday will result in a melting snowpack across the area.

the local area will be in the warm sector early tuesday as low
pressure lifts northeast into the upper midwest. tuesday will be
the first day of the warming trend with highs in the 40s.
isentropic ascent ahead of the low will produce rain ahead of
the low during the day tuesday with the highest pops across ne
oh/nw pa. the cold front will cross the cwa tuesday evening
before clearing to the east by early wednesday morning. there
will probably be a brief period of scattered lake-enhanced
rain/snow showers late tuesday into early wednesday due to upper
troughing being slow to exit, however the setup for lake-
induced precip looks unimpressive with relatively warm 850mb
temperatures and weak lapse rates. at best, it will likely be a
rain/snow mix or wet snow with minimal accumulations expect.

a dry break is anticipated on wednesday as an upper ridge builds
east into the region. the ridge axis will likely cross the area
on thursday, followed by a warm front late thursday into friday
as low pressure lifts northeast out of the central plains. this
will result in a significant warming trend and a prolonged
period of wet weather as the low lifts northeast through
saturday. there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing
and placement of the low and the resulting pops/qpf friday and
saturday so the broad likely/categorical (55 percent and above)
pops will likely change as confidence increases. regardless,
temperatures in the 50s thursday/friday (and possibly lower 60s
in far southern zones friday) in addition to rain falling on
what remains of the snowpack across ne oh/nw pa will result in
increased runoff and possibly rises on more responsive
creeks/rivers and/or ponding in poor drainage areas.
temperatures will be above freezing starting today, so that will
help mitigate any flooding concerns since there will be a
somewhat gradual erosion of the snowpack.

key message 3...

seasonable temperatures and chances of lake effect snow return
late in the weekend.

the aforementioned low will push a cold front across the cwa
saturday, followed by a reinforcing cold front saturday night
into sunday. this will usher near to slightly below normal
temperatures back into the region by sunday. lingering cyclonic
flow aloft could produce lake effect snow showers across ne oh
and nw pa towards the end of the weekend. at this point,
confidence in synoptic and mesoscale features is still too low
to speculate on the exact placement/duration of lake effect snow
showers and resulting accumulations.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
mvfr ceilings have become limited to just nw pa early this
morning with high pressure moving east and a low pressure system
passing to the north. this system to the north will allow for
some mid-level clouds to spread across the northern half of the
area over the next few hours and through the overnight. these
clouds will move over lake erie and may provide the catalyst for
some snow showers to develop and push near keri. still low
confidence in much happening other than a couple flakes and a
slightly longer period of mvfr to the terminals. mid-level
clouds and any remaining mvfr should move out by daybreak,
allowing for vfr conditions with southwest winds. a weak cold
front will move through nw pa this afternoon and may bring some
more mvfr ceilings into keri for late in the taf period. these
mvfr ceilings may expand southwest, but it appears unclear if
these will reach kyng or kcle.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings will continue into monday night.
non- vfr likely on tuesday in rain showers and low ceilings with
low ceilings lingering through wednesday. non- vfr possible in
widespread rain showers late thursday through friday.

&&

.marine...
south to southwest winds of 10-20 knots are expected today as a warm
front lifts north across lake erie. on tuesday low pressure will
pass north of lake erie with southwesterly winds veering to
northwesterly at 15-25 knots in the evening. a small craft advisory
may be needed east of willowick on tuesday night as waves are
expected to build to 3 to 5 feet. nearshore waters west of willowick
are primarily ice covered. some deterioration of the ice fields are
possible this week as temperatures warm above normal.

the next window of impactful marine conditions comes this weekend as
a strengthening low pressure system tracks from the southern plains
across the central great lakes. uncertainty remains in the timing
and track of this system but elevated winds to 30 knots are
possible. small craft advisories will likely be needed with a
lesser chance of gale force winds.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sefcovic
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
307 am est mon jan 5 2026

.key messages...

- clouds decreasing this morning, but increase again this
afternoon and tonight.

- today will mark the beginning of a warmer period with above normal
temperatures expected for much of the work week.

- fog is expected to develop tonight into wednesday with some areas
of drizzle and light rain also possible.

- rain showers become likely thursday into friday, turning
cooler for the weekend with some lingering rain/snow shower
chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 am est mon jan 5 2026

isentropic lift and a progressive mid level trough across the great
lakes has produced a wintry mix overnight across portions of central
lower michigan. some of this light precip may glance south central
michigan (primarily southeast lower michigan) through about 09z
as a narrow of axis of slightly enhanced low level moisture
accompanies the nose of stronger low level flow associated with
warm front. a weak glancing shot of low level caa won`t make
much southward progress across michigan this morning, but should
tend to enhance a low level baroclinic zone across southern
lower michigan. low level winds will back later this afternoon
in response to another fast moving mid level trough expected to
reach ia/northern mo by this evening. warm/moist advection over
this boundary should trend to promote redevelopment of low
clouds particularly along and north of us 6 given anticipated
frontal placement. otherwise, after decreasing clouds this
morning, some renewed mid and high clouds should overspread the
rest of the area this afternoon. several factors will be
competing in terms of temp forecast today, with continued
snowpack across the north acting to sharpen a low level
inversion with developing waa. this lingering snow cover will
likely limit temp rebound somewhat today across these locations,
but areas with less snowcover across the far south/southwest
should be able to warm into the low to possibly mid 40s.

for this evening, increasing near sfc moisture convergence with low
level jet impinging on stalled southern great lakes boundary should
result in expansion of stratus and eventually drizzle and fog as
bulk of this moisture recovery will be very shallow in nature.
the aforementioned mid ms valley short wave should shift across
northern indiana shortly after daybreak tuesday with a mid level
dry slot likely to punch across portions of ne in/nw oh. a
baggy/weak low level gradient accompanying this mid level trough
and gradually melting snowpack should support stratus/fog
potential through much of the day, although fog potential could
diminish in afternoon across southwest portions of the area
where snowpack is less and slightly warmer sfc temperatures are
expected. this patchy fog could very well linger into tuesday
night for many locations. low level cold advection behind
tuesday mid level trough should be weak and short-lived as mid
level height rises follow during the day wednesday with quick
transition back to low level waa. highs across the south
wednesday afternoon could push the 50 degree mark.

thursday and friday still appear to be the warmest days of this
forecast period as strong waa and eventual strong low level moisture
transport lift northward into ohio valley/southern great lakes.
while guidance continues to have expected large differences
regarding complex upper wave evolution for late work week into next
weekend, some broader scope ideas seem to be converging. a cut-off
upper low developing west of baja of ca today should eject northeast
in advance of primary eastern pacific trough to bring a good surge
of low level moisture transport and warm advection thursday, with
widespread rain expected to develop in this warm/moist advective
regime. this initial frontal wave should be followed by another low
level reflection developing across the mid ms valley friday in
response to digging larger scale synoptic trough across the southern
rockies.

the second phase of this system is much more uncertain in regards to
precip amounts/timing with a potential that best moisture could be
shunted well east and southeast in pre-frontal environment. this
system may tend to occlude across southern great lakes early weekend
with some likely instability rain/snow showers continuing with some
wrap around low/mid level moisture. confidence remains on the higher
side regarding trend back to colder, more seasonable temperatures
for the weekend in wake of this system. confidence in temps heading
into next week is on the lower side as multi-model ensemble mean
consensus points to local area being in vicinity of strong low level
baroclinicity with a northwest flow pattern that could bring some
additional clippers and would allow this baroclinic zone to waver
across the region.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1221 am est mon jan 5 2026

existing tafs generally carry on unchanged, with an additional
fm group to prolong mvfr ceilings late and advertise backing
winds.

a weak area of low pressure is passing through michigan early
this morning. vfr ceilings associated with this low give way to
mvfr ceilings later today as evidenced by ceilings across mn and
wi. late in the period, there is a nonzero chance for a brief
window of vfr ceilings according to model guidance. however, in
this pattern, the better play is typically to hold onto
ceilings as advertised.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am est this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
357 am est mon jan 5 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend gets underway today as high temperatures rise above
freezing for the first time since december 29th.

- readings do settle back below freezing tonight, and a low pressure
system brings a brief period of freezing rain tuesday morning.
light icing potential is greater toward the tri cities and
northern thumb.

- high temperatures are on schedule to climb steadily through the
40s mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...

the leading band of isentropic ascent delivered a respectable burst
of snow during the late night event that lasted 1-2 hrs north of
i-69 and about 30 minutes to the south toward m-59. elevated
convection then followed within the strong mid level vorticity
maximum which produced some high based and light mixed precipitation
on top of the new snow cover. the system is now exiting eastward and
has a strong field of subsidence trailing the short wave that is
stripping mid level moisture from the upper midwest into lower mi
during the morning. upstream observations indicate reports of mostly
fog but with accompanying radar reflectivity usually indicative of
freezing drizzle. projecting forward the supporting atmospheric
conditions points to adding patchy freezing drizzle to the forecast
for a few hours in se mi north of m-46. this also occurs on top of
freshly snow covered surfaces or surfaces already treated for snow
while producing the standard trace of glaze on objects. a diminishing
low level wind field with the inbound surface low/occlusion brings
an end to l/zl production as temperatures warm above freezing by
early afternoon. guidance highs in the mid to upper 30s are
reachable.

dry but cloudy weather tonight allows temperatures to settle back
below freezing toward sunrise tuesday morning, just as precipitation
from yet another strong short wave arrives in the great lakes. a
consensus of 00z deterministic models show good agreement on this
system exiting the central rockies today and also deepening across
the central plains on lee side cyclogenesis. warmer air is already
in place across the mid ms valley thanks to tonight`s system pulling
the primary frontal zone northward. the exception is the marginally
cold boundary layer across southern lower mi harboring freezing
temperatures for a few hours late tonight through mid tuesday
morning, especially in the higher terrain and toward the tri cities
and northern thumb. href mean soundings indicate a 6c warm nose
around 850 mb that holds up pretty well during top down saturation
to ensure a rapid transition to rain/freezing rain as precipitation
rate increases in se mi after 12z. this sets up a very narrow time
window for light icing from the ohio border northward to i-96/696
until warmer air surges in ahead of the surface low entering sw
lower mi. the track of the surface low generally along the i-69
corridor leads to a slower warming trend and a longer period of
freezing rain toward the tri cities and northern thumb. this will be
the area to monitor for potential advisory level icing should
blended temperature guidance prove too fast in warming above
freezing by early afternoon.

light rain trails the mid level wave tuesday evening followed
quickly by a ridge of high pressure that builds into lower mi from
the mid ms valley. this brings dry weather but just a gradual
decrease in low clouds. mid time range models indicate low clouds
exchanged for thickening high clouds wednesday afternoon and night.
longer range global models are then in good agreement on a pattern
of increasing/deepening southerly low level wind and a building mid
level ridge that shifts toward the atlantic coast thursday. the
result is the next step in the warming trend for the great lakes.
temperatures are firmly above freezing at night and rise through the
40s during the day in advance of the next low pressure system that
brings just rain to the area during the late week period.

&&

.marine...

clipper system vacates the great lakes region today, drawing its
broad area of snow into ontario by this afternoon. southerly winds
gain a slight westerly component through the afternoon as high
pressure begins to fill in, although winds remain light. the next
low is quickly on its heels, lifting into the region latter half of
tuesday. central pressure with this system is around 1000mb, but its
direct track through lower michigan keeps wind concerns outside of
the great lakes region. warming temperatures support all rain or a
rain-snow mix tuesday followed by another round of high pressure
that keeps the great lakes headline-free through the forecast
period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1155 pm est sun jan 4 2026

aviation...

some intervals of light snow associated with a warm front will lift
across central lower mi during the early morning. this will offer
periodic disruption of visibility at mainly mbs/fnt. brief light
snow showers/flurries plausible at ptk and the detroit corridor.
otherwise, lower stratus showing evidence of clearing per latest
satellite and observational trends. this will leave predominant vfr
with simply higher based cloud as the warm front exits late tonight
and monday morning. a greater eastward surge of low level moisture
will bring renewed mvfr conditions monday afternoon. potential
exists for further reduction in cloud base, with a component of fog
starting monday evening and continuing into the overnight period.
modest winds from the south tonight, becoming southwesterly monday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 5000 feet monday morning. high again monday
afternoon and evening.

* high for snow as precip type.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......mv
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.