Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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402
fxus61 kcle 121931
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
331 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in strong southwesterly winds tomorrow has increased
enough to upgrade the entire area to a high wind warning from early
friday morning through friday evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) strong winds and a chance of showers expected tomorrow as low
pressure pushes east across the great lakes.

2) active pattern continues into early next week as a strong low
pressure system moves through the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
deepening low pressure will glide east across the lower great
lakes tonight through friday. the low will initially lift a warm
front across the local area overnight tonight. light snow
showers late tonight will eventually transition to all rain by
friday afternoon behind the warm front. aloft a strong llj
characterized by 850mb winds 60-70 knots across western zones
and 40-50 knots across eastern zones will move overhead early
friday morning. latest guidance continues to show mixing heights
to almost 850mb which would certainly mix down the strong llj to
the surface, particularly in any showers. hi-res models have
been persistent in showing a large swath of the forecast area
with upwards of 50 kt (58+ mph) wind gusts through friday along
and ahead of a cold front associated with the low pressure
system. as such, the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high
wind warning across the entire forecast area through tomorrow
evening. winds will begin to diminish behind the frontal passage
tomorrow night.

key message #2:
high pressure briefly returns on saturday before another low
pressure system approaches the region sunday into early next week.
the low will lift a warm front north across the region during the
day on sunday with snow showers transitioning to all rain behind the
front. additionally, highs on sunday will warm into the mid to upper
60s. warm weather doesn`t last long as the low pushes northeastward
and drags a cold front east across the region on sunday night into
monday. precipitation will change back over to snow with the frontal
passage. can`t rule out another period of breezy conditions early next
week with this low pressure system. current nbm probabilities of
wind gusts reaching wind advisory criteria (46+ mph) generally range
between 40-70% across the forecast area. will need to keep an eye on
this timeframe for any potential wind headlines.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
a sct-bkn deck of cumulus clouds with scattered light rain/snow
showers is expanding southeast across northern ohio. any showers
should be both brief and light so only included at tol for now
but can`t rule out needing to add to a few other terminals if
activity holds together. west northwest winds are breezy this
afternoon and gusting to around 25 knots through 23z. a ridge
will build east overnight with strong low pressure approaching
from the upper midwest for friday. the main concern for the taf
period will be very strong winds developing on friday.
southerly winds will begin to increase between 09-12z with
initial gusts to 30-35 knots, before ramping up considerably
with sustained winds of 28-30 knots and gusts of 40-50 knots.
winds will be southerly but shift to the southwest with the
passage of a cold front towards the end of the taf period.
clouds are generally expected to be vfr with the possible
exception being at eri where showers are the most likely on
friday. introduced showers in the vicinity around 17z but that
will need to be refined.

one consideration early friday morning is a couple hour window
where low level wind sheer could be a problem. surface winds are
generally expected to increase concurrent with a strong low
level jet aloft and tightening surface pressure gradient ahead
of low pressure moving into the upper great lakes. if surface
winds are slow to increase then low level wind sheer will need
to be introduced with 50 knot winds near 2k feet.

outlook...non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow showers
saturday night into sunday. non-vfr may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on monday.

&&

.marine...
current round of small craft advisories will expire at 4 pm but
a gale warning is already in effect for friday and friday night.
southerly winds increase rapidly on friday morning with gales
beginning between 12-15z on the western basin and 17-20z on the
eastern basin. winds could gust as high as 50 knots during this
time with winds shifting from southerly to southwesterly with
the passage of a cold front during the afternoon. the strong
winds are likely to result in low water conditions on the
western basin with water levels falling as much as 1-2 feet
below low water datum. a low water advisory is already in
effect from 8 am friday to 4 am saturday with the lowest
conditions expected friday evening. with most of the ice gone on
lake erie, waves of 8-12 feet are possible with the gale.

while conditions are forecast to rapidly improve on saturday as
high pressure moves east across the region, another strong low
pressure system is forecast to track northeast across lower
michigan and lake huron on monday. this will present another
window of very strong winds and gales remain possible. a very
strong cold front will move northeast across lake erie during
the day on monday. the track and strength of this system will be
monitored over the coming days with low water conditions
possible again on monday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind warning from 5 am to 8 pm edt friday for ohz003-
006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
high wind warning from 8 am to 8 pm edt friday for ohz011>014-
020>023-031>033-038-089.
pa...high wind warning from 8 am to 8 pm edt friday for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning from 8 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for
lez142>147-162>167.
low water advisory from 8 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for
lez142>144-162>164.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez145>149.
gale warning from noon friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez148-
149-168-169.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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191
fxus63 kiwx 121743
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
143 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

.key messages...

- high wind warning on friday for gusts up to 60 mph.

- a strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms late
sunday into sunday night, followed by strong winds and snow on
monday. snow accumulations/impacts possible, mainly in
northwest in and southwest mi.

- temperatures mid 60s to near 70 on sunday will crash into the 20s
by monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 143 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

several powerhouse ~170 kt upper jets emanating from the north
pacific will drive a couple strong storm systems through the region
through early next week. strong left exit upper forcing within the
nose of the first jetlet will force a compact/vigorous shortwave,
and associated sub-990 mb clipper, east through northern mi on
friday. an impressive wind field will accompany this powerful low
later tonight into friday with frequent advisory level gusts (45-55
mph) anticipated area-wide. whether a few warning level gusts up to
60 mph can be achieved is the main point of contention for a wind
advisory versus high wind warning. initially from the southwest
a ~70 kt 850 mb jet passes through from west to east later
tonight into friday morning. this largely produces advisory
level gusts given the stability and more limited momentum
transfer in these early morning llj/waa regimes. however, the
tail end of this does look to be into areas along/east of i-69
by late morning/early afternoon when more effective diurnal
mixing could produce 50 kt plus gusts. deepest mixing with less
cloud cover and a more westerly component then into afternoon
will keep the high winds going with 925 mb winds 45-50 kts.
forecast soundings, particularly the gfs, support a high wind
warning, while probabilistic data from the href and nbm are more
in line with a high end advisory. splitting hairs really with
true warning level gradient wind events rare in these parts.
with all that said, per collaboration with surrounding offices,
and the rather impressive soundings and momentum transfer progs,
did opt for a high wind warning.

the next dynamic upper jet digs much more meridionally forcing a
digging trough into the central us sunday, with eventually negative
tilt liftout through the ohio valley and great lakes sunday night
into monday. this will support a rapid cyclogenetic response with
sfc low track northeast from mo/western il sunday pm to near lake
huron by monday. leading warn advection wing may clip areas mainly
near and north of the mi stateline with a brief period of snow
(little to no accums) saturday night north of the system warm front.
warm sector then builds in during the day on sunday with breezy/warm
condition before the deepening low and cold front swings through
with rain/wind and chances for thunderstorms late sunday into sunday
night. somewhat lacking low level moisture return and lapse rates
will hopefully limit the threat for severe storms, though the degree
of forcing/flow and potential for at least some weak instability
makes this something to monitor going forward. sharply
colder/blustery air will wrap in later sunday night into monday with
snow showers, especially in nw in and sw mi where some lake
enhancement may allow for accumulations/impacts. track and intensity
differences obviously linger at this forecast range in model land
which will determine how windy/snowy conditions will be on the
backside of this deep cyclone.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1228 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

vfr with westerly winds potentially gusting up to near 20 knots
at times this afternoon. winds diminish briefly this evening
before ramping up significantly later tonight into friday as a
vigorous clipper system tracks east through northern michigan.
southwest winds in the morning will veer more westerly during
the day friday with frequent gusts in excess of 40 knots
anticipated. leading corridor of lift will bring some mid level
cloud cover and chances (30-50%) for a mixture of light
rain/snow to mainly ksbn otherwise later tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...high wind warning from 5 am edt /4 am cdt/ to 8 pm edt /7 pm
cdt/ friday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...high wind warning from 5 am to 8 pm edt friday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...high wind warning from 5 am to 8 pm edt friday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...gale warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 am edt friday for
lmz043-046.
gale warning from 5 pm to 11 pm edt friday for lmz043-046.
storm warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 121902
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
302 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snow is likely overnight into friday morning, with 1
to 3 inches forecast north of m-59.

- a high wind warning is in effect from 5 am to 10 pm friday for
southwest wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

- another round of accumulating snow is likely saturday night into
early sunday. thunderstorms are then possible sunday night with
strong winds late sunday into monday.

- much colder monday through wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s
and lows in the teens to potentially single digits.

&&

.discussion...

active pattern in store through the upcoming weekend, as conditions
remain governed by an oscillating 140 knot upper jet core of north
pacific origin. this environment responsible for directing two
distinct, dynamic pv features toward the region. lead wave ejecting
across the northern plains early this afternoon on pace to arrive
locally late tonight into friday. no meaningful wx prior to midnight
as dry and stable conditions hold within existing surface ridging.
period of deep forced ascent tied to a combination of moist
isentropic ascent and pronounced dcva along the inbound height fall
gradient will then sweep across the lower peninsula during early-mid
morning hours. most meaningful response noted across central and
northern lower mi, but sufficient for all areas to witness a 4-6
hour burst of snow between roughly 1 and 8 am. potential for brief
hourly snowfall rate to exceed half inch per hour north of m-59.
this affords a quick accumulation of an inch or two across this
corridor, with moderate probability for a narrow axis north of m-46
to potentially exceed to 2 inches. healthy proportion of
accumulation confined to grassy/elevated surfaces given the warmer
pavement condition and air temp of 31-32 degrees and trending higher
with time, but expectation for a slushy accumulation to exist for
some during the morning commute.

high magnitude, impactful wind event at the forefront for the friday
period. cold front accelerates through midday. high likelihood for
additional convective shower development as lapse rates briefly
steepen along the frontal convergence and within the immediate cold
air advection during the afternoon. sounding data supportive of a
mix of rain, melting snow and graupel within a chaotic coverage of
healthier convective cores as daylight temperatures recover into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. notable strengthening of the deep layer wind
field at the same time will establish a conducive environment for
strong southwesterly gusts, with peak gust magnitude potentially
enhanced by the shower production. absent of a more meaningful
convective response, a peak in gust magnitude will commence as 925
mb speed reaches near 60 knots around daybreak and again as mixing
depth peaks mid afternoon into the evening under ongoing cold air
advection/isentropic descent. in collaboration with surrounding
offices, belief that the probability is high enough to reach into
the 55 to 60 mph range to highlight the impact with a high
wind warning headline.

main baroclinic zone sags to the south friday night and saturday,
leaving a brief stretch of dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures this period. attention then turns to the potential
impacts of the dynamic mid level system forecast to deepen while
ejecting from the southern plains into the great lakes during the
latter half of the weekend. increasing depth to southwest flow
immediately downstream will draw the elevated warm front back into
the area saturday night and early sunday. sustained moist isentropic
ascent along the active portion of the frontal slope will establish
a band of accumulating snow across lower michigan during this time.
some model variability yet at this stage in both the placement and
duration window. probabilistic data currently indicates roughly a
50% chance for 2" in metro detroit, 3" along the i-69 corridor and
4+ inches across the saginaw valley and thumb.

higher impact winter storm conditions expected northwest/west of the
area given projection of low track across the heart of lower
michigan. assuming a progressive northward propagation of the warm
front sunday as the warm sector makes aggressive inroads along the
eastern flank, forecast favors a brief drying and notable warming
trend for the latter half of sunday. potential for temps to reach
mid 50s to mid 60s depending on pace of the warming relative to
lingering stability. convective potential along the trailing cold
front and along the interface of the inbound low sometime sunday
night. inherently strong kinematic field, but likely lacking on
instability given unfavorable early season nocturnal timing. turning
windy with increasing snow shower potential late monday and monday
night as colder air floods in behind this system. a much colder
airmass then entrenched tuesday, with temperatures a solid 10+
degrees below average. single digits lows possible some locations
wednesday morning.

&&

.marine...

a ridge of high pressure will briefly move across the great lakes
through the evening which will bring a short period of lighter winds
through tonight. attention quickly turns to a seasonably strong low
pressure system which will move across northern lower michigan and
central lake huron through tomorrow morning. a strong pressure
gradient will accompany this system and will result in a rapid
uptick in wind speeds and gusts through friday morning. periods of
sustained winds to gales and gusts to high-end gales will be likely
with this system, along with sustained periods of snow, heavy at
times, especially across central and northern lake huron. a very
strong low level jet fills in south of the low across lake erie and
possibly into lake st. clair. if mixing depths overachieve, sporadic
gusts to storm force will be possible and a short fused upgrade to a
storm warning may be needed.

a brief lull in gales will be possible directly under the low
pressure system as it passes central lake huron, however, cold air
fills in in the wake of the departing low which will sustain
favorable mixing depths and quickly bring renewed gales leading into
saturday morning. high pressure fills in for the later part of the
day saturday and will quickly diminish wind speeds.

a second very strong low pressure system is looking likely to impact
the southern great lakes sunday into monday. this will bring
increasing chances to see another round of gales along with winter
weather, including the chance for sustained heavy snow across
northern or central lake huron.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 103 pm edt thu mar 12 2026

aviation...

vfr diurnal cu holds through the rest of the day as weak induced
ridging passes overhead. breezy northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots
through sunset before weakening early tonight. low pressure tracking
across the northern great lakes will lead to light snow activity
after 07-08z tonight continuing into friday morning. higher snow
rates/totals favored from fnt-north with only a briefer window for
higher rates for the southern terminals.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight into friday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...high wind warning from 5 am to 10 pm edt friday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

low water advisory from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......am
aviation.....kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.