Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
962
fxus61 kcle 091820
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
120 pm est mon feb 9 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in lake effect snow tuesday night into thursday is
increasing, so have increased precipitation chances and
qpf/snowfall amounts. there`s also low-end potential of a brief
period of mixed precipitation across nw pa late tonight into
tuesday morning, but any impacts should be marginal.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of lake effect snow showers likely across portions
of the snowbelt region of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania tuesday night into thursday.

2) temperatures will trend warmer but remain close to normal
for the majority of the forecast period.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
a warm front will begin to lift northeast into the area late
tonight into tuesday morning, followed by a cold front on
tuesday afternoon. most of the area will experience dry weather
through tuesday afternoon, although there is a low-end chance of
a very brief period of mixed precipitation (including light freezing
rain and/or sleet mixing with snow) across portions of nw pa
tonight into early tuesday morning. any impacts should be
minimal given the short duration of freezing precipitation.

periodic lake effect snow showers will return to the snowbelt
region of ne oh/nw pa tuesday through at least thursday morning as
cold air advection develops over lake erie late tuesday night.
generally expect light snowfall rates with maximum 30 to 36
hour snowfall totals of 2 to 5 inches likely across the higher
terrain of inland northwest pennsylvania and lesser amounts
elsewhere. the extended duration of snowfall will result in
less impacts and headlines aren`t expected at this time,
although there may be periods of snow-covered roadways and/or
reduced visibility in any heavier snow bands that develop.

.key message 2...
while a few spots have touched freezing in the last week, most
locations will see their first day with temperatures above
freezing in quite some time on tuesday as highs climb into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. cold air advection will cause
temperatures to dip wednesday and thursday, although
temperatures certainly won`t be as bitterly cold as recent days.
temperatures will likely rise above freezing and stay above
freezing by the weekend, but temps may vary depending on the
exact track of a system that will lift along the east coast and
perhaps the local area sometime late this weekend. precipitation
is likely with this system, although precipitation type will
depend on temperatures.

the gradually warming temperatures will result in a relatively
gradual thaw/melt in snowpack and river ice. while minor ice
jam issues cannot be completely ruled out over the weekend, the
thaw should be gradual enough to preclude a significant ice jam
flooding risk. at the very least, ice is not expected to grow on
area rivers/streams/creeks.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
as high pressure persist over the area, conditions in this taf
period should remain vfr for all terminals. clouds near 6kft
will continue to spread east this afternoon, eventually
blanketing the area. winds will remain under 10 knots out of
the south- southeast through tonight. they will gain a more
southerly component on tuesday morning as a warm front lifts
north, increasing to 7-12 knots with local gusts up to 20 knots.
possible. did opt to mention llws for ktol from 12-15z which is
when the llj will push north, but little to no mixing will
initially limit gusts at the surface. after that, handled wind
concerns with gusts.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers across ne oh and nw
pa tuesday afternoon into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains nearly completely ice-covered with a notable
crack observed on satellite extending from cleveland to points
northeast. winds tonight will remain south-southeasterly at less
than 10 knots. winds will shift to become south-southwesterly on
tuesday and increase to 10-15 knots as a warm front lifts north.
as an associated cold front sweeps east late tuesday into
wednesday, winds will back to become west-northwesterly and
increase 13-20 knots. winds will gradually weaken to below 15
knots for thursday into the start of the weekend. ice will be
prone to some movement east of the lake erie islands this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
708
fxus63 kiwx 091908
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
208 pm est mon feb 9 2026

.key messages...

- quiet weather is expected this week. the next chance of
precipitation is not until late saturday into sunday.

- warmer this week. highs most days will be in the 30s and low
40s, except this tuesday and next monday when highs could
reach the mid 40s for areas further south and west. this will
support a gradual melt of the existing snowpack.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 143 pm est mon feb 9 2026

quiet weather continues with upper level ridging over the
central conus moving eastward and building into the region.
some moderation in temperatures towards more normal levels.
current normal highs for fort wayne is at 34 degrees and normal
lows at 19 degrees with south bend values at 33 and 15
respectively. tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of this week
with high temperatures getting close to the 40 degree mark. of
course this will feel balmy compared to what we have been
enduring over the last several weeks. otherwise, high temperatures
this week will generally sit around the low 30s each day and
the snowpack will keep temperatures on the cooler side.

with a more split flow aloft energy will primarily pass well
north or well south of our area for most of the week. a weak
trough does move southeast into the region by the weekend from
western canada and will move a few disturbances through the
northwesterly flow into the area increasing chances of
precipitation beginning saturday into sunday. periods of light
snow showers and even a bit of rain may mix in but we will
continue to monitor as we get closer to nail down the exact
details and thermal profiles as it does appear the rain/snow
line sets up over our cwa.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1239 pm est mon feb 9 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period, with
llws of 45-50 knots overnight into tuesday morning. stratus deck
around 4-5kft is slowly shifting southeastward, with sct-bkn
ceilings around 25kft building in from the west-northwest. winds
will veer from the e-se to the southwest through tomorrow
morning, then shift west behind a cold front that passes
through. mvfr ceilings are most likely at kfwa, with guidance
suggesting around 1500-3000 ft. for now, started with bkn025 at
15z given the lower end ceilings are most likely closer to 18z.
there are a few models depicting light snow showers at kfwa
during this period as well, however held off on any mention for
now given low confidence.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
486
fxus63 kdtx 091950
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
250 pm est mon feb 9 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for a brief period of wintry mix north of the
m 46 corridor tonight. the most likely time window if it were to
develop is between 10pm and 2am. no widespread impacts are
anticipated.

- temperatures are forecasted to reach near 40 on tuesday with
daytime readings near early february averages wednesday through
friday.

- widespread precipitation may return for the end of next weekend.

- no arctic air mass expected through next sunday.

&&

.discussion...

surface high pressure will retreat to upstate new york this evening
as exit region dynamics of the next upper level jet streak expands
across all of the central great lakes. steady erosion of static
stability in the 6.0 to 20.0 kft agl layer will occur opening the
door for a brief chance of precipitation between 3z-7z mainly along
and north of the m 46 corridor. survey of isentropic surfaces in the
plan view shows no great upright frontal structure, therefore
synoptic lift will be modest and gradual. model consensus for a warm
layer of +2 to +3 c between 3.0 to 5.0 kft agl noses into the far
north which has triggered many of the algorithms to suggest a wintry
mix including freezing rain. cold and dry air resides in the lowest
2.0 kft agl so sleet is preferred with the expectation that some of
the liquid drops will be working to saturate the column. with
regards to the qpf potential for the event this evening, many
datasets support negligible liquid equivalent amounts with the 50th
percentile of nbm 5.0 at 0.0 inch and the 75th percentile now only
showing 0.01 at the tip of the thumb. in-house time lagged ensemble
output has shown a substantial decreasing trend in hourly qpf
probabilities for bad axe with hourly qpf of 0.01 inch now at less
than 5 percent. both the aigfs and the ec-aifs are dry for our cwa
tonight. not expecting any widespread impacts with precipitation
tonight and will refrain from any winter weather headlines.

phasing of stronger shortwave and deeper midlevel trough in central
canada will cause surface low pressure to gather north of lake
superior tuesday. latest data supports the passage of a cold front
through southeast michigan between 18-00z. warmer temperatures will
occur ahead of the frontal passage with 40 degrees likely in metro
detroit tuesday afternoon. cold advection in the surface through 5.0
kft agl layer will then steepen lapse rates bringing at least some
low potential for snow showers. forecast soundings are very shallow
with saturation and casts doubt on ice nucleation. for forecast
continuity will maintain a dry forecast tuesday afternoon.

a dominant southern stream looks to take shape over the southwest
united states for the middle to end of the week with fairly low
amplitude flow over the upper midwest. the main weather influence
appears to be a slow moving surface anticyclone as it largely
remains parked overhead. daytime temperatures are expected to be
near february averages with lows dropping into the teens. active
pattern could then be in store for the end of next weekend as
guidance shows upper level troughing ejecting to the northeast.
plenty of uncertainly with the forecasted thermal profiles at this
juncture.

&&

.marine...

passage of a warm front is now ongoing across the great lakes which
has and will continue to produce widespread snow across the greater
portion of the northern great lakes, including north and central
lake huron. the associated low pressure system with this warm front
will progress from northern lake superior into lake ontario late
tonight into early wednesday morning. passage of this system will
then draw a cold front over the great lakes late tomorrow night
through wednesday morning. close proximity to the low pressure
system strengthens the pressure gradient over lake huron while
intrusion of cold air reinforces steeper mixing depths. this will
bring the likely chance to see wind gusts that range between 30 to
35 knots across north and north-central lake huron from 00z wed to
12z wed. confidence is still only low to moderate to see persistent
gust to gales, so will continue to preclude any gale products.
however, the trend has been upwards for gale potential, so a short
fused gale warning may be needed prior to the event.

high pressure to then build in over the region wednesday into
thursday, which will bring lighter winds to the area during the
midweek period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1257 pm est mon feb 9 2026

aviation...

vfr skies prevail into tonight as a high pressure to the east brings
a light south-southeast wind. there is an overcast deck at around
6kft this afternoon, which will gradually scatter out this evening.
low pressure moving across ontario offers some low potential to see
brief mixed precipitation across mbs this evening between 00z-06z.
confidence is pretty low, so will keep mention out for now.
conditions across the metro terminals are expected to stay dry this
evening into tonight. winds veer to the southwest tomorrow morning
and eventually out of the west tomorrow afternoon while increasing
in speed. ceilings also lower throughout tomorrow morning into the
afternoon. mvfr looking likely with possible ifr conditions for the
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings aob 5,000 ft by late morning tomorrow.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......am
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.