Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
214 am edt tue may 19 2026

.what has changed...
the slight risk for tuesday has been expanded to include nearly
the entire forecast area. otherwise, no significant changes
were made with this forecast package.

&&

.key messages...
1) the hottest temperatures of the year thus far will continue
through tuesday. the heat will break behind a cold front on
wednesday with below normal temperatures continuing into
thursday.

2) a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in northwest
ohio and possibly close to the lakeshore this afternoon into
early this evening. another round of strong to severe storms is
possible on tuesday afternoon and evening.

3) unsettled weather with periods of rain expected and
thunderstorms possible over the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
deep warm air advection will remain in place across the area
over the next couple of days, resulting in above normal to near
record temperatures across the area through tuesday.
temperatures will remain in the 80s to around 90 degrees through
the remainder of this afternoon with temps into the upper 60s
and lower 70s tonight. temperatures will decrease a bit faster
in locations that receive rain (most likely nw oh) this
afternoon. temperatures will once again rise into the 80s and
possibly touch 90 degrees tuesday afternoon, although confidence
in temps reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s (and possibly
touching record values) is slightly lower than today due to low-
end chances of morning showers, afternoon convection, and
increased cloud cover. dew points will likely be a bit higher on
tuesday afternoon so it will definitely feel muggy. those
spending time outside this afternoon and during the day tuesday
should wear light/loose-fitting clothing and hydrate and
sensitive groups should consider limiting time outdoors during
peak heating.

temperatures will cool down for mid to late week with highs in
the 60s expected wednesday and thursday.

key message 2...
as of 230 pm edt, a line of severe thunderstorms was moving
east across indiana. there is a very tight instability gradient
that ends just within the western fringe of the local area so
anticipate storms to quickly weaken as they encounter less
instability later this afternoon and early this evening.
nonetheless, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are
possible, especially in the slight risk (level 2 of 5) area
that`s in place across the toledo area as the storms move in
over the next couple of hours. isolated stronger storms are
possible in the northern portion of the area where there is a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat, however large hail is possible
and a quick spin-up can`t be ruled out in the slight risk area.

once convection weakens this evening, scattered showers may
persist across nw oh through the overnight hours with low-end
pops expanding east across the local area tuesday morning. the
moist, unstable air mass will remain in place over the area on
tuesday, especially if the forecast trends drier and sunnier
than currently forecast. mlcape values will likely exceed 2000
j/kg by peak heating tuesday with effective bulk shear values
likely increasing to 30+ knots as a cold front advances east
towards the area tuesday afternoon. scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely tuesday afternoon into tuesday evening,
although there`s some uncertainty in the placement of convective
initiation and exact timing of thunderstorms. thunderstorm
development will likely rely on early day cloud cover and any
showers that develop tuesday morning. given the instability and
shear profile, storms may be strong to severe and there is a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across nearly the
entire area. damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern,
but some storms may produce large hail. a few tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

key message 3...
a period of dry weather is expected wednesday through thursday
before precipitation chances increase friday through the
holiday weekend as weak low pressure and a frontal boundary
slowly drift north across the ohio valley. there`s still quite a
bit of uncertainty in the timing and coverage of showers (and
possibly a few thunderstorms) over memorial day weekend, but at
the moment it looks like the best chances of precipitation will
occur friday night and sunday into monday. confidence in the
likelihood of hazardous weather is low this far out, but will
continue to monitor trends in guidance and adjust the
forecast/key messages as necessary.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions early this morning. the main focus of the tafs
remains shower/thunderstorm potential. a few showers are
possible between about 11-18z from west to east. activity should
be fairly sparse and restrictions would be brief and limited, so
at the moment only included vcsh. attention then turns to
thunderstorms that are likely to develop late this afternoon and
spread east across the area through this evening ahead of a cold
front. there is some amount of uncertainty with the timing and
placement of these storms if earlier activity ends up more
robust than expected. the current tafs assume that earlier
activity won`t be too detrimental to the main thunderstorm
threat this evening, and has ts included at all sites with
tempos for more significant restrictions and wind gusts with
thunderstorms. showers likely linger into tonight as the cold
front pushes into the area, though convective potential should
decrease by late this evening. mvfr ceilings are likely behind
the cold front, which begins getting into the tafs at tol/cle.

south-southwest winds of 6-12kt will continue through early this
morning. have low-level wind shear in at several locations given
a 40-45kt southwesterly low-level jet and poor low-level mixing.
winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning
and this afternoon as low-level wind shear ends. some
thunderstorms late today into tonight may be severe with
isolated peak gusts over 50kt possible with any severe storms.

outlook...non-vfr continues into wednesday in lower ceilings and
possibly rain showers. non-vfr possible in showers friday into
saturday.

&&

.marine...
south-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the
lake overnight tonight. winds will generally be in the 10-20kt
range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this
afternoon. will go with a small craft advisory from cuyahoga
county points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as
gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. waves of
1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open
waters today. thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this
afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt
and locally up to 50kt over the lake. winds whip around to the
north-northeast late tonight into wednesday at 10-17kt behind
the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. winds increase to
15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into thursday and
easterly into friday as strong high pressure passes north and
northeast of the lake. east-northeast winds often perform well
in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the
forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is
looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore
waters late this week.

&&

.climate...
high temperatures today and tuesday will approach record values.
the following are the records for may 18 and 19 at local climate
sites.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
259 am edt tue may 19 2026

.key messages...

- strong to severe storms are possible today between 3-11 pm
edt.

- damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the
main threats. low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated
tornado.

- warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. highs only in
the 60s wednesday and thursday.

- next chance for rain and a few storms arrive friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 259 am edt tue may 19 2026

satellite and radar imagery currently shows a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms entering illinois. this activity is expected to
weaken as it moves east, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled
out around daybreak (15-20% chances) in our forecast area. ahead of
an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be possible
this afternoon and evening. our area will be well into the warm
sector today; dewpoints will increase to around 70 degrees in
response to a strong southwest llj ramping up throughout the day.
moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the mid to upper
80s) to support sbcape of 2000-2500 j/kg. destabilization should
occur this afternoon, with chances for strong to severe storms
highest between 3-11 pm edt today. the greatest risk area will be
along and south of us 24, where a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather is in place. spc actually pulled the slight risk from
our northwest half of the forecast area, which i agree with as the
us 24 corridor will have ample time to heat up and destabilize this
afternoon before the cold front arrives. shear is still expected to
be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it
will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. with weaker
shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line
segments. given dcape of around 1000 j/kg this afternoon and evening
and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 c/km, damaging winds will be
the main threat today. in addition, forecast soundings do show some
veering between 0-1km, low level srh up to 200 m2/s2, and lcls below
1000m, so an isolated tornado is possible today. this potential is
greatest in nw ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and
destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from
west to east. with pwats around 1.25-1.5", even if storm clusters
are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in
excess of 1"/hr.

it will be noticeably drier with much more seasonable conditions
midweek behind the cold front. high pressure builds in on
wednesday and thursday across the great lakes region. highs will
be in the 60s and it will feel much cooler than the previous
stretch of warm and humid days. next chance for rain and a few
storms arrive friday as a low pressure system lifts into the
ohio river valley. highs friday and saturday will be in the 70s.
summer-like temperatures in the 80s return by late in the
weekend into early next week with additional daily periodic
chances for rain/storms.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 106 am edt tue may 19 2026

vfr conditions will continue through midday. winds have
diminished to around 10 kts for now, but will quickly ramp up
after sunrise and through the morning hours. breezy southwesterly
winds will gust as high as 30 kts today, even outside of any
showers or storms. an approaching cold front will bring chances
for showers and storms today, but confidence is low on exactly
where. the strongest storms may end up east of in-15 towards
kfwa, but have maintained a prob30 at ksbn for 17-20z and a few
hours later at kfwa from 19-22z. mvfr ceilings and visibilities
will be possible within any storms. the main threats today will
be heavy rain and damaging wind gusts up to 50kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
310 am edt tue may 19 2026

.key messages...

- warm and humid conditions exist again today which supports a risk
of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. the
strongest storms are capable of damaging wind, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

- a cold front tuesday night ushers in dry and cooler weather for
wednesday and thursday.

- the next chance of rain arrives late friday and friday night.

&&

.discussion...

higher magnitude warmth and humidity for mid may entrenched locally
early this morning, as the area holds within deep layer south-
southwest flow for one final day. forecast for today offers a more
muddled picture in terms of convective potential, scale and timing
relative to that noted yesterday. intermittent bouts of meaningful
moisture advection will deliver another surge of higher quality
theta-e early in the day, providing some potential for greater cloud
cover to exist along with the possibility for some pockets of
convective showers. with that, expectation for gradual boundary
layer destabilization with time as intervals of greater insolation
capitalize on the elevated dewpoint (mid-upper 60s), yielding
upwards of 1500 j/kg of mlcape by late afternoon. there is a
definitive model signal for higher instability to exist southeast of
a howell to sandusky line, but with the best instability (2000+ j/kg
of mlcape) remaining across ohio. convective focus most likely along
some composite pre-frontal trough or remnant convective vort max out
ahead of the main cold front within the 19z to 00z window, offering
the greatest potential for more meaningful updrafts to emerge mainly
within the aforementioned main instability gradient. background wind
field generally modest overall, but with potential again for some
local enhancement should the convective response be governed by a
stronger convective wave. this maintains an opportunity for organized
late day convective development carrying a risk for strong winds and
large hail. afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 80s/near 90
across portions of metro detroit and points south and mainly mid 80s
elsewhere. warm sector environment will again become diurnally gusty,
with winds reaching 30 to 35 mph from the southwest at times.

a few lingering showers around early tonight as the cold front
settles through the region. otherwise, turning notably drier and
cooler as the post-cold frontal environment settles into region
overnight into wednesday. deep layer stability held within
prevailing low to mid level ridging affords dry and seasonably cool
conditions lasting into thursday. a standard moderation of the
existing airmass then occurs friday under a high degree of
insolation and increasing upper height field, but still lacking in
meaningful warm air advection. highs the remainder of the week
mainly in the 60s. coldest readings noted thursday morning, reaching
into the mid and upper 30s in some locations.

southern stream shortwave forecast to eject from the southern plains
into the great lakes this weekend. increasing magnitude of mid level
southwest flow downstream of this wave will drive a notable surge of
moisture advection directly into lower michigan friday night. while
some higher based light showers are possible late friday as the
column gradually saturates, the main window for widespread,
meaningful rainfall will arrive friday evening and persist
overnight. model guidance is coalescing around a broad swath of
mainly stratiform rain with embedded elevated convective elements
sweeping from southwest to northeast across southeast michigan.
precipitation may carry over into early saturday, before chances
taper off into the afternoon. otherwise, generally seasonable
conditions for the weekend period.

&&

.marine...

a warm and humid airmass over the cooler waters of the great lakes
will support the development and expansion of dense marine fog.
sustainment of fog will be likely through the morning hours as a
strong inversion holds overhead, and will likely continue to some
degree through the early afternoon until a cold front mixes out the
layer. as a result, a dense fog advisory has been issued through the
afternoon. otherwise, calm to lighter winds hold overnight with some
limited chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. southwest
flow increases in magnitude during daylight hours tomorrow which
will bring wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots through the saginaw bay
and along the nearshore areas which have resulted in renewed small
craft advisories. the development of strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible again in the afternoon and evening, favored across
southern lake huron and locations south. wind gusts aoa 50 knots
will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. passage
of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds
from the southwest to northwest through the evening. high pressure
builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek
period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1142 pm edt mon may 18 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions in place tonight. strengthening southwesterly winds
this morning draws richer low level moisture back into se mi
supporting the developing of scattered low cloud (~2-3kft). there is
signal for widely scattered shower development along the nose of
this moisture offering a shot at light showers and borderline mvfr
cigs for the mid/late morning hours. an approaching cold front
reaches southern lower mi by afternoon bringing the next chances for
showers/storms. due to the morning shower/low cloud potential,
exactly how much the region is able to destabilize (which in turn
will affect the subsequent coverage of thunderstorms) is the main
point of uncertainty. as such, have maintained prob30s groups except
for mbs as confidence in convection developing that far to the
northwest is lowering, better potential looking towards detroit.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast tonight through
tuesday morning. there is a chance for scattered storms to develop
in the afternoon, ~20-00z, in advance of a cold front.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low-medium for thunderstorms tuesday afternoon/evening.

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight, medium by tuesday
morning through the day.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422-441>443.

dense fog advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz361>363-
462>464.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......mr
aviation.....kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.