Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
926
fxus61 kcle 091157
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
757 am edt sun aug 9 2026

.what has changed...
a day 1 spc marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather has been
expanded through the entire area tonight, and a slight risk (2 of 5)
has been added to nw ohio. a day 1 wpc slight risk (1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall has been slightly expanded into more of nw ohio
tonight, and a day 3 slight risk for excessive rainfall has been
expanded to most of the area tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) briefly quiet and less humid today followed by multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms tonight through wednesday. confidence is
low on the timing, location, and intensity of each round of storms,
but rainfall totals could add up in some areas, and some of the
storms could produce severe weather.

2) turning gradually drier, cooler, and less humid wednesday night
through saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak cold front will continue to settle south
toward the ohio river this morning as weak surface high pressure
builds across the southern great lakes. this will allow dew points
to run about 10 degrees cooler today making for noticeably less
humid conditions, but temperatures will remain very warm with highs
in the mid/upper 80s again.

the well advertised very active pattern will begin tonight as the
surface high drifts east and allows the front to lift back north as
a warm front in response to a mid/upper shortwave dropping into the
upper midwest. this shortwave will be one of many that will progress
through a wnw mid/upper flow pattern between a broad ridge
covering the southern plains and mid mississippi valley and
broad trough over southern canada and the great lakes. each
shortwave will interact with the frontal boundary as it becomes
quasi-stationary across the southern great lakes and ohio
valley regions, bringing multiple rounds of convection tonight
through wednesday. unfortunately, the forecast has become even
more uncertain in terms of the timing, location, and intensity
of each round of convection since each thunderstorm complex
(mcs) will move the location of the front and also lay down
outflow boundaries which will affect the evolution and track of
future complexes. despite the high uncertainty and resulting low
confidence forecast, attempted to describe some individual
periods below.

tonight and monday morning: this period is trending somewhat
more impactful, and the day 1 spc marginal risk (1 of 5) for
severe weather has been expanded through the entire area
tonight, and a slight risk (2 of 5) has been added to nw ohio,
along with a small expansion of the wpc day 1 slight risk for
excessive rainfall into more of nw ohio. the initial shortwave
moving into the upper midwest tonight will ignite an mcs over
the western great lakes this evening, where a 30-40 knot low-
level jet will focus strong warm/moist/theta e advection into
the frontal boundary. the past few runs of the href members and
rrfs have struggled with the evolution and track of this mcs
(and will continue to do so in this entire pattern), but
consensus is becoming more aligned with the idea that it will
move at least into nw ohio late tonight and possibly roll
through the lakeshore counties in the pre-dawn hours monday
morning along the retreating frontal boundary. instability will
be weaker tonight and early monday morning compared to the
source region for this complex to the west, so the most intense
portion of the system may dive south through illinois and
indiana, but slowly increasing low-level moisture and
instability through the night coupled with increasing mid-level
flow ahead of the approaching shortwave should be enough to
support some damaging wind risk, and pwats rising back to 1.5 to
2 inches definitely support torrential rainfall with any
thunderstorms. so, potential is growing for thunderstorms late
tonight and early monday morning to have decent organization
and produce some scattered wind damage and heavy rainfall.

monday afternoon and monday night: this period is trending drier
since the greater coverage and organization of the convection
early monday morning should push the boundary back southwest and
also lay down outflow boundaries. this will likely cause new
convection to initiate farther southwest monday evening and
monday night. the shortwave will continue to progress through
the central great lakes monday afternoon and evening, with a
30-40 knot low-level jet response focusing warm/moist/theta e
advection into the front and outflow boundaries. this will
ignite another mcs monday evening or early monday night, but
consensus is growing that the bulk of the activity will be
confined to areas along and south of a findlay to mount vernon
line, and some href members even have it entirely southwest of
our cwa. while the threat of organized convection is decreasing
for most of our area monday evening through monday night,
noteworthy deep layer effective shear of 35-40 knots along with
the low-level jet aligned increasingly parallel to the main
boundary supports both severe weather (mainly damaging winds but
a couple of tornadoes) and torrential rainfall/flash flooding
from backbuilding convection wherever it develops and tracks. it
will be important to continue to check the latest forecast for
monday evening and monday night since the convection will be
significant wherever it ends up being.

tuesday and tuesday night: uncertainty becomes really high by
the time we get to this period of the forecast, but the synoptic
frontal boundary remaining quasi-stationary and wavering around
the southern great lakes and ohio valley combined with what
appears to be one or two additional shortwaves will ignite
additional scattered convection during peak heating and mcs
clusters at night. whether the convection ends up south of our
cwa (possible scenario due to all of the outflow from previous
convection) or into parts of our area, excessive rain totals and
flash flooding will be a growing concern because this will be
the third day of potential heavy rain. the expansion of the wpc day
3 slight risk for excessive rainfall into most of the area
tuesday and tuesday night is reasonable based on the uncertainty
in location but potential for rainfall accumulations to be high
by the time this period arrives depending on where all of the
individual rounds end up.

wednesday and wednesday night: the shortwave train should
finally flatten the southern conus ridge enough by this period
that the trough across the great lakes and northeast conus will
finally be able to deepen enough to begin to push the active
boundary south of the area. one more day of convection and heavy
rainfall is possible over or just south of the cwa wednesday
before the drier air begins to work in wednesday night.

key message 2...
the deepening mid/upper trough across the great lakes and
northeast conus wednesday night through the start of the weekend
combined with canadian high pressure at the surface gradually
sliding down across the great lakes and pushing the frontal
boundary into the ohio river valley will yield drier, cooler,
and less humid conditions. highs will be in the mid to upper 70s
by friday and saturday with lows in the 50s away from the lake.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
outside of some brief fog and mist in ne oh and nw pa,
conditions will trend to clear with high pressure entering the
region. there are some lake clouds in ne oh that will largely
avoid the terminals. winds will be light and southwest for much
of the day.

after midnight, the first in a series of systems will reach the
area bringing increasing cloudiness before showers and storms
arrive to the region. have begun to expand mentions of vcts and
higher impact prob30s when there could be higher confidence in
impacts due to ts. there is still a fair amount of uncertainty
in the ts potential late tonight into monday and this time
period may need to be refined further.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected through
thursday as several rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms move across the airspace. some storms could be
strong to severe during this timeframe, especially on monday.

&&

.marine...
northwest flow is present over the lake this morning with a cold
front exiting the region. high pressure will briefly build over
the lake today and flow will shift to the southwest by this
afternoon. for tonight through wednesday, the weather pattern
appears fairly unsettled with several weak low pressure systems
moving over or just south of the area. these systems will allow
for southwest to west flow to persist through the middle of the
week and will bring periodic shower and storm chances. there may
be some marine headlines needed with the storm chances over the
lake. a cold front will cross the area by thursday and high
pressure will build into the region toward the end of the week,
allowing for northwest flow to take over. there could be some 2
to 3 ft waves with the cold frontal passage, which may lead to a
brief moderate swimming risk.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
402
fxus63 kiwx 091706
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
106 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

.key messages...

- there remains the potential for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. damaging winds, flash flooding and an
isolated tornado possible.

- additional severe thunderstorms and flooding possible monday
afternoon into monday night.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1243 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

focus remains on convective evolution and intensity late this
afternoon into tonight. surface warm front is on schedule in
reaching to near the mi border during this time, allowing for a
muggy and unstable air mass to settle in for most locations under
perturbed west-northwest flow aloft.

there still appears to be two windows for convection, though
there might not be much of a break between them. the first
window is late this afternoon into early this evening as a small
scale bowing segment and mcv (currently near milwaukee)
continues east-southeast interacting with the warm front and
substantial mucape axis. new, scattered, sfc based cell growth
appears likely along its outflow in the vicinity of the mi state
line 20-01z. marginal deep layer shear profiles expected here
initially, along with forcing and colder temps aloft bypassing
north may allow weak capping to limit coverage and intensity
somewhat. that said, ~2000 j/kg of mlcape and the current
forward momentum of the cluster could support a damaging wind
and non-zero tornado threat into mainly southwest mi and far
northern in during this time.

the second window comes later this evening into the overnight hours
as the warm front becomes invigorated by an incoming small scale
impulse and deeper moisture advection on the nose of a ~40 kt
low level jet. there still may be a damaging wind threat with
any bowing segments given the lingering mucape and increasing
deep layer shear, with an isolated tornado still not out of the
question. the bigger concern by this time with be the flash
flood potential given the potential for training/backbuilding
and a deep warm cloud layer wherever the composite outflow
stalls. this placement will depend on how the late afternoon-
early evening activity evolves (strength of cold pool/outflow
uncertain). this will need to be closely monitored regardless
given the hybrid maddox/frontal flash flood look to this.

this periodically stormy pattern will likely continue into at least
monday and tuesday as several small scale perturbations track east-
southeast in the vicinity of the lingering frontal zone and
associated mucape axis. forecast specifics are very uncertain in
this kind of pattern (take it one day at a time) given the subtle
nature to the forcing mechanisms and the influence of previous
convective episodes on where exactly the frontal boundary sets up
for the next round. as for monday, expect a lull monday morning
before chances for severe storms increase during the afternoon hours
as strong diurnal boundary layer destabilization develops under 30-
40 kts of 0-6 km shear. damaging winds appear to the primary threat,
with another round of training storms and flash potential monday
night as the low level jet ramps back up.

trends in guidance continue to favor a trend toward drier/less
active conditions mid to late week as previous episodes of
convection hopefully force the effective boundary off to the
south.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1248 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

a convectively enhanced short wave across southeast wisconsin
will continue eastward into lower michigan through this
afternoon. low level flow will gradually increase to the south
of mcv-like feature across wisconsin with additional cells
expected to develop along an outflow boundary dropping across
northern illinois. some uncertainty remains with how convection
will continue to develop but would expect given ample downstream
destabilization that convective development is likely into nw
indiana in the 20z-23z timeframe. no major changes anticipated
to the tsra mention at ksbn. thunder potential at kfwa may be a
bit more delayed until later this evening without outflow
boundary expected to stall across northern indiana and
interacting with llj for additional storms. the potential exists
for these storms to grow upscale into southward/southeastward
propagating mcs overnight, but timing/location are still of
somewhat lower confidence. a stronger instability gradient will
likely be positioned across northern indiana on monday setting
the stage for additional storms/thunderstorm complexes during
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
472
fxus63 kdtx 091806
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
206 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

.key messages...

- one or possibly two rounds of showers and thundestorms are
expected to track through southeast michigan this evening and
tonight. isolated storms will be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts, hail, and flooding rainfall. locations near the southern
michigan border carry the highest risk.

- seasonable temperatures continue into mid week, with chances for
thunderstorms primarily focused near the southern michigan border
monday night and tuesday.

- dry weather is expected to end work week.

&&

.aviation...

storm system approaching from the west will move into an environment
with less instability. uncertainty exists in regards to the
maintenance of this system into the southeast michigan corridor and
if enough instability can be drawn up into the area as system moves
east. current timing if it holds together could put it an hour or
two earlier, but models that have the best handle on this system puts
the better thunderstorm activity in around 22-23z and after while
placing stronger storms south of terminals. have adjusted timing
slightly based on this and will amened as needed with southern
terminals holding best chance to see any stronger thunderstorm
activity. vfr conditions with overcast high clouds preceding activity
this afternoon under a s-sw wind up to 10 knots with a chance for
continued support of showers and thunderstorms into the early part of
tonight. mvfr to borderline mvfr ceilings will follow late
tonight/tomorrow morning as winds become more westerly.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms through bulk of this
afternoon. upstream storms over lake michigan have developed, but
uncertainty in maintenance in strongest storms into the metro area
remains relatively high. best chance remains towards 23z and into
early tonight for any thunderstorm activity.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 am edt sun aug 9 2026

discussion...

ridge of high pressure anchored over the region early this morning
will maintain influence heading into sunday as it slowly vacates to
the east. this provides a brief window for deeper layer stability to
exist within the background of prevailing lower amplitude mid level
west-northwest flow. this will support dry conditions with a high
degree of insolation potential through the afternoon hours. emerging
low level southerly flow will initiate a modest period of warm air
advection through the daylight period. this will bring highs into
the middle and upper 80s, but with a more manageable humidity level
noted with a dewpoint generally hovering near 60 degrees.

attention for the evening period turns to behavior of convective
activity now organizing over the upper miss valley within a zone of
deeper moist/warm air advection and along one of several mid level
impulses embedded within the mean flow. model guidance offers a
general consensus for this activity to maintain some form of
integrity as translates downstream today, reaching the local area
during the evening hours. higher likelihood for this activity to
arrive in a weakening state as instability really diminishes with
eastward extent, perhaps even falling apart or becoming focused over
a smaller footprint. forecast will scale precipitation chances down
into the chance to lower likely category for the 22z-04z window and
allow near term trends to dictate further revision. greater moisture
advection occurs within the wake of this wave overnight, initiating
a secondary opportunity for convective expansion along the existing
frontal boundary/outflow extending across southern lower mi. while
there may be a tendency for greater expansion to build southward
into the deeper instability residing south of the state line, the
potential certainly exists for some clusters of marginally surface
based cells to work eastward into mainly areas south of i-96 during
the overnight hours. spc continues to highlight this corridor for an
isolated risk of damaging winds and hail. in addition, potential for
some training of cells along the boundary will offer the possibility
for areas of heavier rainfall and a localized flash flooding threat.

forecast for monday carries strong dependence on behavior of the
overnight activity both locally and upstream. there is currently
strong evidence across the model spectrum that the more meaningful
forced ascent and deeper instability will generally remain to the
south and west during the day. there remains at least a lower
probability for mainly southern sections to be vulnerable for
renewed diurnal development should more tangible forced ascent
materialize. latest nbm corroborates this noted trend with a sizable
downward revision in forecast precip chances for the monday period.
this casts considerable doubt on prospective severe convective
chances. there perhaps is greater potential for another round of
convective expansion monday night into tuesday over the northern
ohio valley, which could spill into southern lower mi as bouts of
greater moist/warm air advection occur along the oscillating
boundary and within any passing shortwave. in a nutshell, the early
week precip forecast carries very low predictability and likely will
require additional revision. temperatures during this period will
remain seasonable for mid august.

marine...

high pressure slides east across the region tonight into sunday,
with west-northwest winds becoming south and southwest by sunday
morning. south winds increase sunday across northern lake huron, to
around 20-25 knots. the uptick in winds on sunday over the saginaw
bay will bring 2-3 feet waves, but conditions look to fall just
short of small craft advisory criteria at this time. much of sunday
remains dry, but sunday evening through early next week an active
pattern will bring back chances for organized thunderstorms as a
slow moving frontal boundary sets up across the southern great lakes
region and lingers through mid week. by the end of the week, high
pressure builds south from central canada.

hydrology...

one or more rounds of thunderstorms will track toward the region
this evening and overnight. low confidence exists on possible
trajectory, duration and coverage of any activity, with greater
overall potential perhaps developing mainly south and west of the
area. if thunderstorms do impact se michigan, there will be
potential for training thunderstorms capable of rainfall rates in
excess of an inch per hour. localized flash flooding will be
possible, especially if heavy rainfall impacts urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mr
marine.......ja
hydrology....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.