Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
299
fxus61 kcle 121121
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
721 am edt fri jun 12 2026

.what has changed...
some lingering convection is ongoing across northeast ohio as
a cold front begins to push across the area this morning. the
convection has significantly weakened and the environment has
become less conducive to severe weather, allowing for the severe
thunderstorm watch to be canceled this morning. a few strong
storms with gusty winds remain possible, but should remain
isolated.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler and drier weather will move in today as the cold front
departs east. pleasant temperatures will persist into next week.

2) the next chance of widespread showers will be sunday as a cold
front pushes east, but an active weather pattern will result in
additional precipitation and storm chances into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as a robust cold front pushes east across the area tonight, a cooler
and drier airmass will begin to spread across the area allowing for
friday highs to be in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the
50s to low 60s. in addition to cooler daytime highs, overnight lows
will follow a similar trend with friday night temperatures dropping
into the upper 50s to low 60s. this will be a nice reprieve from the
unseasonably hot temperatures over the last few days and are
expected to persist into next week as a broad troughing pattern
lingers over the great lakes region. additional cooling will occur
towards the end of the weekend into next week as another cold front
pushes east on sunday and highs drop into the 70s by monday with
overnight lows falling into the 50s.

key message 2...
on friday, a surface ridge will nudge northeast into the area,
allowing for showers and lingering storms to end from west to east
into the afternoon. by saturday, a very broad upper level trough
will become established across the region with models suggesting it
lingering into next week. along this broad trough, multiple
shortwaves are expected to move along the axis, providing periods of
upper level support for showers and convection across northern ohio
and northwest pennsylvania. the first of these disturbance will push
east on sunday, moving an associated cold front east. models diverge
a bit on the exact timing of the frontal passage on sunday which
will likely be a determining factor in strength of any storms that
do develop. cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms,
especially if they occur in the afternoon hours during more
diurnally favorable timing. after sunday, additional shortwaves may
bring showers and storms to the area on tuesday and again on
thursday. at this point, not expecting any widespread severe
convection or flooding concerns.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
a cold front will continue to progress east across the area this
morning. mvfr ceilings associated with the front will clear
ktol/kfdy shortly and terminals to the east will likely
experience 2 to 3 hours of mvfr ceilings early in the taf period
before ceilings rise to vfr by late morning. vfr will prevail
through the remainder of the taf period.

winds will be out of west at 8 to 14 knots with gusts to 20 to
25 knots through early this evening before becoming light and
variable after 00z tonight.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
possible sunday and tuesday.

&&

.marine...
west winds to 15 to 25 knots are expected this morning and small
craft advisories and beach hazards statements remain in effect
early this morning through this afternoon. west/southwest winds
will diminish below 15 knots by this evening. similar flow will
continue through saturday with west/southwest winds increasing
to 15 to 20 knots ahead of the next cold front sunday morning
and shifting to the northwest behind the front sunday
afternoon. additional small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements will likely be needed during this time. west/southwest
winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected monday and tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 11 am edt this morning for
ohz007-009.
beach hazards statement until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
ohz010-011.
beach hazards statement until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lez145-
146.
small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
227
fxus63 kiwx 121009
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
609 am edt fri jun 12 2026

.key messages...

- drier and cooler weather is in place for today and the first
part of saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- a marginal risk for severe weather edges into areas west of
in-15 for saturday night. the main risk is damaging wind, but
hail and heavy rain are possible. the risk is expected to wane
farther east of in-15.

- the middle of next week looks unsettled again with chances for
showers and storms tuesday and wednesday.

- a moderate swim risk exists along the southeast lake michigan
shoreline friday as waves reach 1 to 3 feet. breaking waves
and currents are expected. stay away from dangerous areas like
piers, breakwalls, and river outlets. always have a flotation
device with you in the water.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 309 am edt fri jun 12 2026

as the main area of vorticity from thursday`s storms pinwheels away
from the area this morning and surface high pressure passes by to
our south, drier and cooler air to move into the area. this results
in upper 70s to low 80s for high temperatures and dew points
that fall back into the upper 50s and low 60s.

for saturday, trajectories turn more southerly as a vort max
pinwheels around the upper low in south-central canada. this brings
another theta-e plume towards the area and allows for dew points
into the 60s mainly during the afternoon and highs back towards the
low to mid 80s.

instability begins to wane as we head into the overnight hours from
over 1000 j/kg during the day to under 1000 j/kg at night and shear
appears to be dropping as well. this would tend to pose a problem
for severe weather, but thunderstorms are still possible. still
think spc`s marginal risk is decent at this point and also like the
area since it appears the longer into the night that we go the worse
the severe weather ingredients get.

the cold front moves through by sunday morning and this brings
another cool and dry air push that brings highs down to the 70s for
sunday and monday and dew points into the upper 40s and 50s. breezes
behind the front on sunday reach 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon
especially east of in-15.

more vorticity drops southward in the mid level trough for tuesday
and this allows for showers and thunderstorms. another chance for
thunderstorms exists later wednesday or wednesday night as a
vigorous shortwave accompanies an upper low. a cold front pushes
through during this time and drier weather returns by friday and
quite possibly for thursday as well.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 608 am edt fri jun 12 2026

as the main area of vorticity from thursday`s storms pinwheels away
from the area this morning and surface high pressure passes by to
our south, drier and cooler air to move into the area. this results
in mostly clear skies and vfr conditions. the left over thermal
gradient contributes to an excited low level jet and that paired
with strong low level lapse rates encourage mixing of 20 to 25
kt gusts down to the surface level.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
214
fxus63 kdtx 121030
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
630 am edt fri jun 12 2026

.key messages...

- sunny, breezy, and less humid today.

- warmer on saturday with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms saturday night into early sunday. isolated storms may
be strong to severe.

- dry and relatively cooler conditions early next week before
another active, stormy pattern commences midweek.

&&

.aviation...

shallow cool air advection following in the wake of last nights
thunderstorm complex resulted in a large area of mvfr based stratus.
ongoing post frontal dry air advection is already scouring these
clouds out. this and diurnal mixing will erode any lingering mvfr
deck this morning, leaving just scattered diurnal cu based in the 4-
5 foot range based on latest forecast soundings. increased daytime
mixing depth will support westerly wind gusts around 20 knots
through the day.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not expected across the
detroit metro airspace this morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 340 am edt fri jun 12 2026

discussion...

a cold front is working across the central lower peninsula at press
time, driven by a potent shortwave taking on a negative tilt as it
races across the northern great lakes. deeper convection has been
ushered east of the area and remaining showers will remain light and
spotty through the early morning. cold advection ensues through the
rest of the morning with 850mb temp falling to 9 to 11 c by this
afternoon and sfc dew points lowering to a more comfortable level in
the 50s. morning post-frontal lower clouds give way to a good amount
of insolation today with the mid june sun angle boosting temps to
around 80 degrees. breezy west wind will peak in the 25 to 30 mph
range then diminish tonight.

a closed upper low takes shape over northern ontario this weekend,
directing a zonally oriented jet streak across the great lakes on
saturday. subsidence on the anticyclonically sheared side produces a
broad ridge of high pressure over the ohio valley which provides a
cap over se mi and keeps conditions dry and warm through the day.
southwest return flow wrapping around the high advects in higher
boundary layer moisture with steep mid-level lapse rates
contributing to increasing instability into the evening. a weakly
forced cold front will migrate southward across northern lower mi
through the evening before reaching the saginaw valley close to
midnight. availability of surface based instability is not
guaranteed given unfavorable diurnal timing, but bears monitoring as
a 35 to 40 kt llj works in ahead of the front. isolated strong to
severe storms will be possible overnight given the favorable sfc-1km
and sfc-6km shear profiles, with highest probability directed over
the saginaw valley and thumb. otherwise, rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms will be likely for most of the area overnight into
sunday morning.

the front clears metro detroit by midday sunday with much cooler and
drier air filtering in through the day. high static stability and
zonal flow at the base of the northern ontario upper trough maintain
seasonable and benign conditions through early week. southwest flow
emerges tuesday to bring in the next bout of warm/moist advection
ahead of a cold front slated to pass through between late tuesday
and early wednesday. this will be the next window for showers and
storms. a deeper, compact low is then advertised to track through
the great lakes wednesday night into thursday with additional
showers and storms.

marine...

a cold front will finish pushing east of the area this morning
allowing for high pressure to build in across the southern lakes.
another cold front will start moving toward the north western lakes
which will help keep a fairly tight pressure gradient across the
region today. winds will increase from the southwest, turning more
westerly, behind the front offering a period of gusts to near 30
knots for saginaw bay and the tip of the thumb through this morning
so a small craft advisory is in effect. the second cold front will
help keep elevated southwesterly winds across the lakes through much
of saturday before the front then sweeps east by sunday morning.
winds will stay elevated around 20 knots, but out of the northwest
sunday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until noon edt today for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until noon edt today for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.