Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
940
fxus61 kcle 030710
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
210 am est tue mar 3 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in accumulating freezing rain across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania this morning has increased. a winter weather
advisory has been issued for portions of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through 10 am this morning. additionally,
the flooding risk has decreased as the axis of highest qpf has
shifted south of the forecast area.

&&

.key messages...
1) accumulating freezing rain will briefly impact northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania this morning before transitioning to all rain
later this morning.

2) trending warmer with multiple rounds of rain expected today
through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will continue to lift north across the ohio valley with
primarily light rain showers moving through the local area this
morning. along the leading edge of precipitation, some light
freezing rain/drizzle will be possible across portions of northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania. overall accumulations will
generally range between a light glaze to a few hundredths of an
inch. have issued a winter weather advisory across northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania where highest accumulations will
likely occur. anticipate for any freezing rain to transition to
all rain between 8 and 10 am this morning. periods of rain
showers will move across the region through tonight as the warm
front becomes stationary across the local area this afternoon
and evening. rain should gradually diminish later tonight as the
front sinks south of the forecast area.

key message 2...
the aforementioned warm front will waver across the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. multiple
disturbances will track through the area along the front bringing
periods of rain showers to the region. the southward shift of the
stalled front has largely shifted the axis of higher qpf amounts
south of the local area. the latest forecast now has generally 0.25
to 1 inch of rainfall across the region with locally higher
amounts 1 to 1.5 inches along and south of us 30. with the
southern shift of the stalled boundary the flooding risk has
decreased, but will likely see some rises to area rivers and
creeks. latest nasa sport guidance keeps nearly all local creeks
and streams below action stage. there may be enough instability
wednesday into thursday for some thunderstorms to develop. the
better potential for strong to severe storms will be over the
weekend ahead of a cold front.

temperatures will warm throughout the week with highs in the 40s
today warming into the 60s thursday and friday. highs in the 60s
expected again on saturday with some southeastern zones making a run
at low 70s.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
the main aviation weather concern with this 06z taf update will
be conditions deteriorating down to ifr and the potential for
a few hours of light freezing rain through early tuesday morning.
the overall trend will be ceilings lowering ifr later through
the early morning hours of tuesday. widespread ifr to some
possible lifr ceilings will be around for tuesday and through
the end of this taf period. there will also be widespread areas
of light fog/mist/drizzle causing visibility reduction of 2sm to
5sm early tuesday morning through the late evening. scattered
light rain showers will move in late tonight through tuesday.
with the onset of the light rain showers could be some light freezing
rain before temperatures warm up above the freezing mark. we
have this potential mentioned in prob30 groups for most of the
tafs into early tuesday morning. winds will start out easterly
5 to 10 knots before winds becoming southeasterly to southerly
tuesday morning. wind will shift more westerly to northwesterly by
the end for the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr likely continues into tuesday night with rain
showers or drizzle. occasional periods of rain late wednesday
through saturday will likely bring additional non-vfr
conditions.

&&

.marine...
primarily light (15kt or less) east to northeast winds are
expected through wednesday evening across the lake. ice will
continue to want to drift west through wednesday evening. winds
gradually shift more east and then south wednesday night and
thursday as a warm front lifts towards and across lake erie.
winds then shift more south-southwest friday into the weekend. a
period of stronger southwesterly winds (to 20kt or so) is
possible friday or saturday. the wind shift will cause ice to
drift more north-northeasterly late week through the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
ohz012>014-022-023.
pa...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...77
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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580
fxus63 kiwx 030528
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1228 am est tue mar 3 2026

.key messages...

- becoming unseasonably mild thursday through saturday with highs in
the 60s to around 70 degrees.

- an extended very wet period will start tuesday with periods of
rain and isolated thunderstorms.

- rises on rivers are expected. some rivers may eventually reach
action or flood stage late this week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm est mon mar 2 2026

the upper level pattern will become somewhat zonal into wednesday
morning, resulting in little change in sfc temperatures into tuesday
night with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s (coldest
tonight). a warm front will attempt to work north across indiana and
ohio over the next 24 to 48 hours, but will face a fair amount of
resistance with a lack of any deeper waves to help move it along.
models trends overall have been confining the better chances for
measurable rainfall to central/southern in and oh starting late
tonight and persisting into wednesday. that being said, we will
still reside on the northern fringe of the overrunning moisture
which may spell a period of lighter rainfall for areas mainly along
and south of us-30. uncertainty remains as to how fast the
lighter precip advances north while temperatures north of us-30
are near/below freezing late tonight into first thing tuesday
morning. as a result, wx grids still reflect a mention of
freezing rain and/or snow for a few hours in these area, but
impacts if any would be brief.

the first shot of more meaningful moisture and associated increase
in rain chances arrives wednesday night into thursday as a trough,
currently located in northern ca, works east to nebraska by 12z wed.
a modest increase in heights will allow the frontal boundary and
associated overrunning precipitation to work further north.
highest pops will reside in this period for the area with
rainfall tapering off by thursday evening.

the active pattern will continue as a deep upper low stalls out over
the sw u.s. an even stronger surge of warm and moist air will
commence with the warm front eventually working well north into the
area. a weaker northern stream wave will arrive, accompanied by a
cool front (more expecting a drop in dewpoints vs temperatures as it
passes). better chances for showers and even some thunderstorms
exists in this period with uncertainty on the best timing and
overall amounts of precip. as a result, expected precip chances in
this period to vary quite a bit in the coming days until models can
hopefully hone in on a better solution.

few if any hydro concerns are expected given the lower flow of the
rivers, low levels in lakes and dry ground waiting to soak up the
light to moderate rain rainfall. as we get later in the week and
beyond we will need to more closely monitor the situation as
repeated round of rainfall could cause issues (moreso with respect
to rivers and maybe some low areas vs more significant flooding).

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1228 am est tue mar 3 2026

low level moisture is steadily increasing ahead of the next
system. low-end mvfr ceilings are expected through most of this
period with ifr likely at kfwa during the day. ifr is possible
at ksbn but confidence is not high that far north. rain showers
will also be possible (again best chances at kfwa) but
confidence is not high and ceilings will drive aviation
impacts today regardless of whether or not it rains. freezing
rain is not expected as precip will not arrive until after
sunrise when temperatures climb above freezing. slowly
improving conditions expected tue night as drier air moves
south.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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501
fxus63 kdtx 030358
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1058 pm est mon mar 2 2026

.key messages...

- potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the
forecast.

- there is a slight chance for a couple periods of freezing rain
tuesday morning and tuesday night.

- warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on tuesday
and wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

weak surface ridging maintains vfr overnight while moisture pools
along a warm front across the ohio valley. this moisture will lift
northward tuesday morning, reaching the detroit terminals in the 12
to 15z time frame and expanding up to the i-69 corridor and briefly
toward the mbs vicinity in the afternoon. upstream observations and
model guidance indicate high probability for mvfr ceilings for most
of the area and moderate confidence in ifr across metro detroit.
pockets of light drizzle/mist remain a possibility mainly near
detroit as well but are not in the tafs due to low confidence on
occurrence or aviation impact. if any precip occurs with the initial
surge of moisture during the morning, freezing drizzle would be
possible before temps rise above freezing. light wind through the
day tuesday with another area of high pressure easing in from the
west by the evening. this will introduce drier air, but ceilings may
linger across the southeast into early wednesday morning.

for dtw...approximately 10% probability for freezing drizzle exists
between 11 and 16z. otherwise, mvfr ceilings become likely by mid
morning and persist into tuesday night. window for ifr is centered
between 18 and 00z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet after 12z tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm est mon mar 2 2026

discussion...

western periphery of a strong high pressure system centered over new
england has supported cloudless skies across southern michigan as
return flow gradually starts to advect in warmer temperatures
derived from the ohio valley. this has allowed temperatures to peak
in the low to mid-30s which is still below normal, however, this
will be the start of progressively warmer temperatures that continue
through the week.

for tonight and overnight, mainly dry conditions are expected to
persist for most of se mi given the lack of forcing under zonal flow
aloft. the possible exception will be across the mi/oh border up
through the northern metro region as low level moisture gradually
fills in across southern michigan under weak isentropic ascent.
modeled soundings still do not fully saturate the shallow boundary
layer thus leading to low confidence for any precipitation, however,
there is some concern that south-southeast flow could pull in some
shallow moisture off of lake erie. if this were to materialize,
soundings do highlight freezing mist/freezing drizzle as the main
p-type give surface temperatures below freezing and a 4kft wedge of
temperatures above freezing aloft with a maxt of 2.6c, where the bulk
of the low-level saturation exists. given this, will maintain a 15%
chance for freezing drizzle through the mid to late morning hours,
with trace amounts of ice accumulation possible.

temperatures rise above freezing by the afternoon, ending all
freezing drizzle concerns. low-end chances (20-30%) for a rain
shower or two will hold through the remainder of the day favored
i-69 south given continued advancement of the low-level moisture and
position of the elevated frontal boundary. highs peak in the 40s.

zonal mid-level flow holds through wednesday as high pressure
briefly fills back in across the state. this bring dry conditions
through at least the first half of the day while return flow from
the quick moving system ushers in warmer temperatures, pushing highs
in the mid to upper 40s, possible low 50s through the interior of
the cwa. this will also act to push low-level moisture back through
southern michigan, bringing low-end chances for rain showers.
increasing confidence for rain enters thursday through friday
morning as a slow-moving mid-level wave travels through the central
plains and into the southern great lakes. this wave will induce a
weak low pressure system and will drive the surface frontal boundary
into southern michigan, bringing likely rain chances. a more active
period of weather continues as a secondary stronger wave from the
four corners progresses towards the great lakes over the weekend,
possibly phasing with a secondary northern stream wave. this will
work to bring like the warmest temperatures of the week with 850mb
temperatures aoa 10c and surface temperatures aoa 60 degrees.
trailing the warmer weather will be the arrival of the wave and low,
bringing rain and thunderstorm chances saturday.

marine...

high pressure over the northeast governs conditions across the
central great lakes this evening. this provides modest southerly
flow over lake huron, but weaker easterly winds across the southern
waterways. winds broadly diminish late tonight into tuesday while an
area of troughing extends eastward through the ohio valley.
potential exists for a bit of freezing drizzle across parts of lake
st. clair and western erie early tuesday morning before changing
over to liquid rain midday. split-flow eventually arises over the
region tuesday leading to light and variable winds by tuesday
evening and through the overnight hours. dry weather and light winds
return wednesday morning as high pressure briefly spills across
lower michigan. easterly winds rise by thursday as a rain producing
warm low lifts into the south while canadian high pressure builds
into james bay. the northern half of lake huron resides within the
strongest pressure gradient with sustained winds in excess of 20
knots, but gust delta is narrow given increasing low-level stability.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.