Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
184
fxus61 kcle 200746
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
346 am edt sun sep 20 2026

.what has changed...
although precipitation chances linger, have opted to lower qpf
totals over the next 36 hours to better reflect the dwindling
chances for thunderstorms and associated heavy rain tonight. some
embedded thunderstorms are possible sunday with the cold front.
general totals should be between 0.3-0.8 inches in most places with
the heaviest axis of precipitation now just to the southwest of the
cwa.

&&

.key messages...
1) shower coverage should gradually increase this morning before
becoming more widespread today. isolated thunderstorms today may
bring locally heavy rainfall which could result in isolated flooding
concerns. the axis of heaviest precipitation extends from near
toledo towards mount vernon and areas west.

2) first taste of fall arrives this week with periodic rain chances,
especially on tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
in previous forecasts, a warm front was expected to push north of
the area late saturday, however looking at recent surface analysis
this boundary appears to have stayed south of the area. as a result,
the bulk of heavy precipitation has remained out of the area with
the highest totals reaching toledo at almost 1" so far. this warm
front may nudge a bit more north today as a low pressure system
moves along it towards the cwa. this cold front will move a cold
front across the area this afternoon. as a result, there remains an
elevated potential for heavy rainfall, especially within any
thunderstorms that develop, however the widespread heavy rain is no
longer expected as the primary precipitation mode should remain more
stratiform tonight. as a result, have opted to lower qpf with this
forecast package to generally be 0.3-0.8 inches of precipitation
with a higher axis around 1 inch extending from toledo southeast
towards mount vernon. some of these areas have already received a
decent bit of rain on saturday which will result in saturated
antecedent conditions. however, given recent low levels on area
rivers and the more stratiform type of precipitation the area should
mostly handle the additional rainfall. overall, today will be quite
a dreary day and will also mark the transition into a week of fall
like conditions. highs today will climb into the upper 60s across
northern counties and into the mid to upper 70s across southern
counties. overnight lows should drop into the low to mid 50s with
the exception of portions of nwpa which may even see temperatures
fall into the 40s.

key message 2...
as the system today departs east, a canadian high pressure will
nudge south across much of the great lakes region while a surface
trough linger across the ohio valley. the placement of these systems
will leave the cwa right in the middle. this positioning will allow
for a cooler airmass to arrive and high temperatures fall into the
60s this week with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. chances for
precipitation on monday should be isolated to the far southern
counties, but shower potential ramps back up on tuesday and
wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough moves east, nudging the
surface high north and providing support for the potential
development of additional showers. this high will push back south
for the end of the work week. in addition, the positioning of the
area on the gradient between the trough and high pressure will
result in breezy conditions this week with the strongest winds
expected along the i-75 corridor.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
broad low pressure with a stationary front is in place across
the region. while ceilings range from vfr to ifr at 06z, the
trend will be towards ifr by dawn as the front pushes south. scattered
showers will cross the local area and be hard to time overnight.
rain will expand in coverage and spread west to east across the
area between 10-19z with moderate rain at times. there will be
a chance of thunderstorms extending in an arc across fdy/mfd but
could extend as far north as tol/cle/cak. brief heavy rain is
possible with thunderstorms. ifr will be favored in nw ohio
while ceilings will try to lift to mvfr towards yng/eri this
afternoon. showers will tend to dissipate from north to south
during the afternoon. skies may try to scatter out at eri
after 00z monday as high pressure strengthens to the north but
confidence is low in that.

winds will be variable overnight with the frontal boundary
residing in the area. most sites will eventually transition to a
northwest then northerly wind as the front sags south today.
winds at tol/cle/eri may exceed 10 knots with gusts possible
this afternoon and evening with increasing flow on lake erie.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
a low pressure system is expected to move northeast along a stalled
boundary that remains south of lake erie. this will initially allow
for winds to remain from the north-northeast at 5-10 knots through
this afternoon. as this low shifts east and moves a cold front
across the area, winds will begin to ramp up from the northeast to
20-25 knots in the western basin tonight. this will initially allow
waves to build to 4-6 feet. on monday morning, lake erie will fall
under a gradient between a canadian high to the north and a surface
trough across the ohio valley. as a result, winds are expected to
quickly ramp up on monday to be sustained at 20-30 knots from the
northeast. this increase in winds will result in waves building to 5-
7 feet, approaching 10 feet at times. these strong winds are
expected to persist through at least wednesday before the high is
able to push further south on thursday and allow for a transition to
calmer conditions. as a result, a small craft advisory has been
issued for the southern lakeshore of lake erie beginning tonight
through wednesday evening. given the elevated wave heights and
strong winds, there is an increase in rip current potential so a
beach hazards statement has also been issued. these conditions are
expected to be very dangerous and people should avoid going onto the
lake for the start of this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from this evening through wednesday
evening for ohz003-007-009>011.
beach hazards statement from late tonight through wednesday
evening for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from monday morning through wednesday
evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 pm edt
wednesday for lez142>146.
small craft advisory from 2 am monday to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez147-148.
small craft advisory from 8 am monday to 8 pm edt tuesday for
lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
092
fxus63 kiwx 201156
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
756 am edt sun sep 20 2026

.key messages...

- periods of rain and chances for embedded thunder lingering
into today and tonight. localized heavy rainfall rates and
flooding will remain possible.

- a drier pattern sets up next week, though light showers and
drizzle may linger into monday and tuesday.

- cooler next week with highs only in the 60s monday through
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 246 am edt sun sep 20 2026

an upstream shortwave will track east into the area today continuing
to provide a steady feed of moist isentropic ascent into a lingering
west to east oriented baroclinic zone. this will keep areas of rain,
low clouds and drizzle around for most of today into this evening.
the saving grace regarding flooding so far has been lacking rainfall
rates with the main mucape axis remaining off to the southwest. this
may change however today given radar trends over northern il
associated with the incoming shortwave that hint at an uptick in
more robust rain and chances for embedded thunder, with
model/ob/radar trends pointing to areas mainly along and north of
the us 30 corridor this morning for heavier rainfall rates and flood
impacts. a slight shift more into the southern half of the forecast
area then possible this afternoon-evening where differential heating
near the sfc portion of the front likely produces some heavier
convective elements in areas that cannot take on any more rain. have
opted to extend the flood watch through 18z today, with further
extension potentially needed.

the story then for much of next week will turn to a persistent feed
of drier, cooler east-northeast flow on the southern fringe of high
pressure laying out across the northern great lakes. the main
moisture axis shifts south of the area monday into tuesday in this
regime. however, trailing shortwave energy in broad cyclonic flow
aloft may support a few flare ups in shower/drizzle activity,
especially on monday south of us 30.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 748 am edt sun sep 20 2026

an instability gradient has gradually lifted back northward this
morning and should remain anchored across northern indiana
through the early evening hours. clusters of showers and
thunderstorms have formed along this instability gradient with
the most prominent area expected to affect kfwa between 13 and
14z this morning. some question aos to coverage of showers and
thunderstorms late morning into early afternoon, but water
vapor/ir imagery does suggest another upstream wave approaching
eastern iowa and northwest illinois that will likely augment
precip coverage later this afternoon and evening. large scale
frontal forcing will also increase this afternoon which will
likely cause renewed coverage of showers/embedded storms. ifr or
briefly improved cigs in stronger convective elements will
continue through much of the day, with greater confidence in
improvement not until later this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 2 pm edt /1 pm cdt/ this afternoon for
inz005>009-012-014-015-017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ohz015-024.
mi...flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for miz078>080-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
877
fxus63 kdtx 201003
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
603 am edt sun sep 20 2026

.key messages...

- periods of rain this morning, with lingering rain chances then
focused mainly south of i-96 this afternoon.

- seasonably cool conditions will persist into the middle of week.

- areas of showers are possible again tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

an elevated nearly stationary frontal boundary remains draped across
southern michigan this morning, providing a focus for abundant
moisture today. rain will spread across the metro detroit terminals
early in the forecast with coverage gradually shrinking southward
toward the i-94 corridor and stateline this afternoon. the main
aviation concern will be widespread lifr ceilings this morning. as
high pressure establishes north of lake superior, dry northeast wind
will help gradually lift ceilings through the course of the day. vfr
eventually becomes favored by mid afternoon in the north and by this
evening toward detroit. wind remains steady out of the northeast
through tonight and gains increasing gustiness monday morning.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not anticipated through the
forecast.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through this morning.
medium this afternoon, then low tonight.

* low for ceilings to fall below 200 ft prior to 13z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt sun sep 20 2026

discussion...

early morning upper air analysis shows an elevated frontal zone
still anchored locally early this morning, draped within prevalent
lower amplitude mid level westerly flow. pockets of showers continue
to percolate along the frontal slope and within an environment
featuring higher magnitude low level moisture quality. shortwave
energy noted on water vapor ejecting out of the mid mississippi
valley will effectively augment the existing background ascent,
maintaining a high probability for additional intervals of shower
development to occur today. increasing influence of drying low level
northeast flow as high pressure gains traction to the north likely
establishes a tight north-south gradient for precipitation chances
once the morning round diminishes coverage. greatest chances from
midday into the evening focused generally along/south of the i-94
corridor. cooler resident thermal profile entrenched within this
environment ensures high temperatures again arrive mainly in the mid-
upper 60s.

increasing depth to prevailing east-northeast flow will establish a
period of generally dry and stable conditions early next week as
high pressure stays anchored to the north. latest nbm guidance still
offers a very low probability for showers to develop near the ohio
border monday, acknowledging the lingering presence of deeper
moisture looming just to the south. some modest cold air advection
tonight will effectively reinforce the seasonably cooler resident
airmass. highs both monday and tuesday projected within the 60-65f
range, with lows dipping into the 40s tue morning for most locations
outside of the detroit urban areas. some degree of diurnally
enhanced gustiness to the wind each afternoon, peaking into the 25
to 30 mph range.

broader mid level troughing will expand across the northern great
lakes within the tue night and wednesday window, as a closed mid
level system pivots southeast into the ohio valley. there remains a
subset of the model solution space that suggests this interaction
within continued deep layer east flow may effectively draw deeper
moisture back westward into portions of southeast michigan. assuming
some form of weak ascent/deformation can emerge, this may present an
opportunity for shower production. greater potential will eastward
extent, with the outgoing currently peaking chances wednesday
afternoon. seasonably cool conditions will otherwise likely prevail
through the end of the week.

marine...

stalled frontal boundary maintains shower chances over the southern
great lakes today before expansion of strong high pressure over
northern ontario finally shunts this front deeper into the ohio
valley. locally, the central great lakes reside on the southern edge
of this high resulting in a respectable gradient across the region
throughout the entirety of the early week period. this supports
moderate northeasterly through tuesday before shifting more easterly
by wednesday (while maintaining strength). while gales look
unlikely, onshore flow warrants long duration small craft advisories
for all nearshore waters.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.