Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
229 am edt fri jul 3 2026

.what has changed...
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area later today. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) of severe weather for the entire area on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dangerous heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot this weekend.

2) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later
today with better opportunities for rainfall this weekend into
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
we have one more day today of very hot and humid weather
conditions before we start to see some relief. there are already
signs that the "heat dome" which has been over the ohio valley
and mid-atlantic region is beginning to break down and shift
southward away from our area. there are some scattered
convection just northwest of our area this morning which is one
indication that the ridge of high pressure is weakening.

as for today, isolated to widely scattered convection over
southern lower michigan may track across lake erie later this
morning and skirt by our lakeshore. this weaker convection may
leave out an out flow boundary for new showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon and push further into northern ohio
and nwpa. high temperatures will climb back into the middle to
upper 90s areawide. the heat index will once again be between
100 and 107 degrees this afternoon. the ongoing extreme heat
warning for northern ohio and heat advisory for nwpa looks good
at this time with no changes needed. due to added cloud cover
and higher pops this weekend, high temperatures will not be as
hot in the middle 80s to low 90s. more seasonable warm
temperatures are expected to continue through much of next week
with daily highs in the middle to upper 80s.

key message 2...
our rain chances will gradually increase starting this afternoon
and evening as the area becomes more influenced by the
westerly flow over the top of the exiting ridge of high
pressure. afternoon and evening pops will increase between 30 to
50 percent later today. widely scattered convection will be
possible across much of the area later today in the vicinity of
residual outflows from overnight activity and local lake breeze
enhancement. deep layer shear and flow will support the
potential for a few strong clusters of convection which may
produce damaging wind gusts. spc has the entire area in a slight
risk later today for severe storms with damaging wind gusts as
the main threat.

pops will increase to likely for much of the area saturday
afternoon and evening. now this does not mean a complete wash
out for july 4th plans, but it does mean that there will likely
be scattered showers and storms throughout the afternoon and
evening. spc has the area in a marginal risk day 2 outlook for a
few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts on
saturday. the best chance of pops and more widespread chances
for showers and storms will be on sunday. pops will increase
between 75 and 90 percent sunday afternoon and evening. a couple
stronger storms with damaging wind gusts may also be possible.
the airmass will be very moist this weekend with pwats of 1.5 to
2 inches. any convection that is slow moving or training over
the same area will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall both saturday and sunday.

an upper level trough will continue to slowly track eastward
across the great lakes region on monday with an associated cold
front. pops will remain high monday for scattered convection.
slightly drier weather will follow by the middle of next week
before rain chances increase again towards the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is expected to prevail through the taf period outside of
convection. convection is ongoing as of 6z from southern lower
mi west-southwest across northern il and into ia. this ongoing
convection is favored to either weaken or slide north of tol-
cle-eri this morning. there are low odds (10-20%) that
convection persists and tracks farther south than expected, too
low for inclusion in the tafs but may require amds early this
morning if trends change. the next (and greater) potential for
convection is later this afternoon and evening. confidence in
this evolution is low, depending on how this morning`s lingering
activity across the great lakes plays out. the general thinking
is that a combination of a lake breeze near the eastern lake
erie shoreline and lingering boundaries from earlier activity
just to our west-northwest will favor additional scattered
thunderstorm development starting around 19-20z, with activity
sinking east-southeast into/across the area before exiting
and/or dissipating overnight tonight. due to lower confidence
handled with a window of vcsh and prob30 for tsra to give some
idea on timing, but expect refinement as we get closer and
impacts to given terminals can be better assessed.

winds will be out of the west-southwest and under 15kt through
the period outside of any convection. locally stronger wind
gusts over 40kt may occur in/near thunderstorms.

outlook...occasional shower and storm potential continues this
weekend ahead of a cold front. weak low pressure moves overhead
sunday night into monday, continuing occasional shower/thunder
potential and possibly bringing non-vfr ceilings.

&&

.marine...
winds will remain generally southerly or southwesterly at under
15kt through sunday, keeping waves in the 1 to 2 foot range.
lake breezes will flip winds a bit more onshore each afternoon,
especially northeast of cleveland, which may push choppiness
into the nearshore waters. occasional potential for
thunderstorms exists this afternoon through the weekend. briefly
higher winds and waves will accompany any thunderstorms over the
lake. low pressure tracks over or just south of lake erie
sunday night into monday, bringing winds around to a more
easterly and then northerly direction at 15kt or less. this will
push some choppiness into the nearshore waters, but expected to
remain below headline criteria through the forecast.

&&

.climate...
dangerous heat and humid weather is expected again today.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those
records for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
404 am edt fri jul 3 2026

.key messages...

- the extreme heat warning continues through this evening across
northwest ohio, along with portions of northern indiana mainly
east of i-69 and south of us 24. a heat advisory is is effect
elsewhere. heat indices will range from the upper 90s to
around 105 (highest in the warning area).

- there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather this
afternoon into this evening, with the greatest potential of
severe storms from 3pm edt to 11pm edt. damaging wind gusts,
lightning, and locally heavy rain are the main threats, but
isolated large hail cannot be ruled out.

- hot and humid for the 4th of july with up to 70% chances for
showers and storms. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. isolated storms are most likely from 2pm
edt to 11pm edt. with isolated damaging wind gusts, heavy
rain, and lightning as the main threats. an isolated severe
storm may exist once again sunday afternoon, but confidence is
lower.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 357 am edt fri jul 3 2026

outflow dominated convective complex is progressing across northwest
indiana into southwest lower michigan early this morning. a few
outflow boundaries have passed across northwest portions of the
forecast area early this morning. this outflow is helping to sustain
convection early this morning as it approaches the south bend area,
along with a pocket of enhanced 30-40 knots of effective shear via
some convective enhancement of the short wave. this convective
complex does still have a 2500 j/kg mlcape axis to work with across
far northern in/southern lower mi this morning, although some weak
downstream mlcin will continue to develop through the remainder of
the overnight. forcing with the outflow will likely be enough to
overcome this weak cin however, which could very well allow for
eastward maintenance of the convection through most of far northern
indiana and souther lower michigan. these storms are not expected to
be severe this morning with a possibility of some isolated
gusts to 40 to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall. 0-3km shear
vectors are somewhat impressive (southwest around 30 knots)
which could pose some concern for brief mesovort, but increasing
elevated/outflow dominant nature of this complex should lessen
severe potential this morning.

the am storms will leave behind an outflow boundary that could serve
as a focus for isolated-scattered storm development after 18z this
afternoon, although bulk of cam guidance does still maintain later
timing toward 20z and beyond as another convectively enhanced short
wave emerges from ia/central plains. impressive instability
profiles (mlcapes on order of 2500-3000 j/kg) will be in place
this afternoon and approach of this short wave toward evening
could also enhance convection along remnant outflows. shear
profiles will be less favorable severe weather ingredient today,
with shear profiles gradually waning this morning with
departure of am vort max. one thing that may need to be watched
today is the potential for a favorable wet microburst
environment given high capes and steep 0- 3km lapse rates. some
relatively drier mid level theta-e air may also be working along
northwest periphery of the suppressed mid level ridge that
could enhanced sfc to mid level theta-e differentials for some
localized microbursts, particularly if convection can develop
during the afternoon to early evening hours. a slight risk of
severe storms (level 2 of 5) has been maintained today with
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain still appearing as
the main threats. given low shear environment, outflows from
late afternoon/early evening convection may sustain some renewed
convective development through the overnight hours given slow
moving nature to upstream short wave.

some indications for saturday that some very subtle mid level height
rises could develop for first part of the day in wake of the short
wave/mcv late tonight. this does lead to some low confidence in
convective evolution for saturday. shear profiles should be
marginal, with moderate afternoon instability still likely. a
trigger is somewhat murky at this forecast distance, with old
outflows possibly playing some role once again. this setup still
supports a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for saturday afternoon/early
evening with once again an isolated wind threat.

some consideration was given to extending heat headlines into
saturday for far south/southeast areas, but complications from
convective potential and derived heat indices from forecast
grids yielding peak afternoon heat indices around 100 across
these locations argue for maintaining heat headlines as is for
now.

predictability in convective details drops off further for sunday
and monday as a pair of synoptic waves will likely undergo some
convective modification once again, but overall pattern and timing
of this forcing would support isolated-scattered convection again on
sunday. instability will likely be more limited on sunday in
comparison to today and saturday, and with persistence of marginal
shear profiles, an isolated severe threat is of lower confidence on
sunday.

scattered pops were maintained for monday although recent guidance
trends could result in quicker transition to dry conditions as
negative height anomaly begins to shift off to the east.
temps/humidity levels should transition to more seasonable
levels for early next week. additional shower and storm chances
still look good later in the week as a series of pacific waves
and slightly stronger northern tier westerlies shifts into the
great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 155 am edt fri jul 3 2026

convective potential will continue to be the primary aviation
weather concern. a cluster of showers and thunderstorms across
northeast illinois into southwest lower michigan has kicked an
outflow boundary southward that has just passed through ksbn
vicinity. showers and a few storms have attempted to develop
along this outflow boundary, but development of some weak mlcin
overnight may tend to limit coverage and result in some
diminishment of upstream convection as it pushes east. with
continued low confidence in near term, have indicated a prob30
thunder mention at ksbn with a potential outflow boundary could
be a focal point, and the possibility that convective complex
across northeast illinois survives eastward. a more organized
round of convection is still expected late this afternoon into
this evening as another convectively enhanced short wave from
the plains rounds the flattening upper ridge and interacts with
an unstable airmass. some uncertainties persist regarding where
leftover outflow boundaries from this morning`s convection will
be located and also timing the convectively enhanced short wave.
could see isolated-scattered storms develop toward 19-20z along
remnant outflow boundary that may begin to slowly retreat
northward across far northern indiana. better chance of storms
still looks to be in the 22z-03z timeframe as the short wave
approaches. given the uncertainties mentioned, will limit
afternoon/evening convection at terminals to a prob30 for now.
outside of any heavier showers and storms, vfr conditions should
hold through this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for inz009-
017-018-022>027-032>034.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
336 am edt fri jul 3 2026

.key messages...

- an extreme heat warning is in effect through this evening for
counties along and south of i69. a heat advisory is in effect for
the remaining counties.

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast today and
tonight. there is a chance for strong to severe storms through this
period.

- locally heavy rain and minor flooding is possible through tonight
as well.

- while temperatures will be less hot and more seasonable this
weekend, the chances for showers and thunderstorms, with an isolated
risk for strong to severe storms, will continue saturday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...

there`s been a shift in the longwave pattern the last day or so with
the strong upper low locked over central canada shifting eastward
and shearing out a bit across ontario and quebec. this in turn is
flattening the ridge over the great lakes and forcing the highest
heights southward as more zonal flow builds over the region. the
resident heat dome will linger over the area one more day though
increased chances of convection and additional cloud cover will lead
to slightly improved conditions over the previous few days. this
will also force the upper level jet southward across lower mi as
well which will lead to high pops and possible rounds of convection.

residual heat across the region with 850mb temps around 20c and
500mb heights around 590dam will lead to another hot day. overnight
temps will again hold into the mid 70s which will help warm to the
low to mid 90s once again. dewpoints still in the low to mid 70s
today as well will result in heat indices from about 95 (north) to
105 (south). compounding effects of several days of excessive heat
will make these slightly improved conditions for some location still
dangerous. this lead to another extreme heat warning being issued
for most of se mi. a few counties north of m46 are farther north of
the outflow boundaries located across southern lower mi now so
dewpoints and temps will be a bit lower and it was decided to go
with a heat advisory for those counties.

cooler temps are on the way for the weekend as convective outflows
push the heat and humidity further southward. highs will remain in
the 80s through the upcoming week, dipping to the low 80s by monday
before rising back to near 90 by mid week. but dewpoints down into
the 60s should make it feel more bearable.

as mentioned, convective chances are on the rise today and tomorrow
as the jet axis drops over the region and outflow boundaries reside
over the area as well. unstable atmosphere with around 2500 j/kg of
cape and some shear today around 20 knots (increasing to 30 knots
saturday) will help scattered storms get going along these
boundaries. pwats will be up around 2 inches and dewpoints in the
70s so plenty of moisture to work with, and as we saw in chicago
tonight, if storms can line up along a boundary we could get some
flooding concerns due to heavy rain. current activity tonight,
though weakening, will help keep the boundary across the south to
focus storms there. spc day 1 outlook highlights the state line with
the slight risk area with marginal across the rest of the area. any
storm could be strong to severe with moisture loading causing strong
downbursts and storm tops around 50kft have been presenting some
hail threat as well. cams are all over the place trying to produce
storms and mcss. hard to put any timing into the forecast outside of
stating the best timing looks to be first this morning across mid mi
tied to the convection west of lake mi tracking up that way though
should be weakening. then most models have a weak mid level trough
passing through this evening.

long wave trough tied to the low over quebec will try to pivot down
through the region saturday keeping convective chances going though
the day. strongest instability should be pushed south of the state
but models do still build around 2000 j/kg of cape with decent mid
level lapse rates and some shear. so cannot rule out some stronger
storms again.

&&

.marine...

a stalled frontal boundary is draped across the northern great lakes
where it will remain over the next 24 hours before beginning to sink
farther south on saturday. to the south of this boundary is a warm
and unstable air mass that will provide the fuel for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and saturday.
isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, capable of producing
wind gusts in excess of 34 kt. prevailing wind will be from the
southwest at 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt in the
shallower nearshore waters. as the cold front settles south on
saturday, wind direction will shift to north and northeast then veer
east by sunday. the unsettled pattern is likely to persist sunday
into monday as a weak low traverses the region, but ambient wind
magnitude is forecast to remain light.

&&

.hydrology...

clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and
tonight. while there is some uncertainty as to the location of the
more persistent thunderstorms, current forecast indications are that
locations south of the i-69 corridor have the better potential for
thunderstorms. if thunderstorms do development, they are most likely
to become oriented west to east with a good chance for storms to
train over the same area. there is expected to be a wide range in
rainfall totals across the region. localized areas of one inch or
more of rain is possible in areas that see the persistent
thunderstorm activity. rainfall rates in these areas are likely to
reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. if these storms set up over urbanized
areas, localized flooding is possible. additional periods of showers
and thunderstorms are forecast saturday and sunday, which will add
to rainfall totals. higher amounts will again be localized.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1152 pm edt thu jul 2 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions with west-southwest winds prevail through this taf
period, unless thunderstorm activity directly impacts a terminal.
ongoing storms across southwest michigan are the main aviation
concern over the next 6 to 8 hours. have updated ptk and fnt to
include a prob30 for tsra. given the latest trends, it appears those
two terminals will have the greatest chance at seeing thunderstorm
activity during early morning hours.

for later today/tonight, the risk for additional thunderstorms
exists. however, it remains difficult to pinpoint what terminals
will be impacted. while chances are greatest for dtw/yip/det, will
wait to see how convection moving through the region early this
morning impacts boundary positions and setup for additional
thunderstorm later this evening/night. it is possible thundestorms
activity slides just south of those terminals. thus, will hold off
on mentions for tsra late in this taf period for now.

d21/dtw convection...there is an increasing chance for thunderstorm
activity across the northern half of the d21 airspace through the
early morning hours on friday. additional chances are possible later
today/tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorm potential through friday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-053>055.

extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......tf
hydrology....sc
aviation.....ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.