Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
265
fxus61 kcle 061424
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1024 am edt sat jun 6 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) showers and storms expected today ahead of a cold front that will
track through the region tonight with potentially severe level
storms.

2.) heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the great lakes.

&&

.discussion...
update...
increased pops to likely and categorical across the western and
southern counties through early afternoon as an mcs propagates
southeastward across the area. this complex is not being modeled
well at all by the cams, but it appears to be an old mcv that
regenerated a new line of convection due to downstream heating.
strong warm air advection is rapidly raising dew points into the
mid 60s this morning, and with plenty of sunshine ahead of the
line and the increasing low-level moisture, expect it to
continue southeastward across the area. surface based cape is
marginal (around 1000 j/kg), but with around 30 knots of
effective bulk shear oriented normal to the line, there will be
a marginal threat for severe winds at times from about findlay
to mt. vernon.

this morning complex results in a high amount of uncertainty
regarding the redevelopment of convection ahead of the cold
front this afternoon and evening. it is possible that a trailing
outflow boundary causes all new convection to develop south of
our cwa for the late afternoon and evening, so this will be
reevaluated with this afternoon`s forecast package.


key message 1...
showers moving through michigan and southern ontario due to a
prefrontal surface trough and the emergence of a low level jet will
likely begin to dip southward into our cwa over the next several
hours. these will be largely low qpf producers and scattered in
nature, and not every location will receive rain this morning. as we
get into the daytime hours, flow aloft becomes cyclonic, and with
daytime heating, expecting not only a significant increase in the
instability, but a lowering of the cape as well. column rh could lag
a bit, but do not expect that to be an inhibiting factor to
convection today. models now showing an increase in the 0-6km bulk
shear compared to last night with 50kts, and could now see this
development becoming a line or cluster of storms moving mainly
northwest to southeast through the cwa. expecting mainly damaging
winds as a the threat, and this potentially severe convection should
initiate after 18z when insolation has had time to destabilize after
morning cloud cover exits.

key message 2...
high pressure in the wake of the cold front sunday and monday in
slightly cooler weather and convective chances returning tuesday
thanks to a relatively high amplitude upper level trough axis moving
through. another more persistent upper level ridge will move in for
the rest of the forecast period, through the end of the week, and
will mark a period where very warm temperatures should build in
along with higher dewpoints that eclipse 70f for much of the cwa
thursday and friday. will need to watch the apparent temperatures
for the end of next week with those higher dewpoints and
temperatures in place.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
initial push of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
east across the region this morning. have maintained tempo
groups for tsra across most taf sites through ~15z/sat. there
will be a brief break in precipitation late this morning into
early this afternoon. thunderstorms will redevelop this
afternoon along a line south of lake erie as a cold front pushes
south across the region. maintained prob30 for lakeshore taf
sites as convection may develop just south of them. elsewhere,
have tempo groups to time out non-vfr impacts in thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.

any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop and move over a
terminal will be capable of producing mvfr ceilings and/or
visibilities. any afternoon/evening thunderstorm may reach
severe limits and cause strong wind gusts and large hail.

southwest winds have decreased slightly early this morning to
8-12 knots but they are expected to increase later this morning
to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. locally higher wind gusts
possible in strong to severe thunderstorms. winds will turn
westerly while decreasing to 8 knots or less tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in patchy fog early sunday morning.
periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms monday night through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds increase to 15-20 knots ahead of the passage of
a cold front this evening. wave heights are expected to build
to 3-6 feet across the open waters and in the nearshore zones
of the eastern basin. have issued a small craft advisory and
beach hazards statement though this evening. as the cold front
moves south across the region showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening. high pressure builds
overhead behind the cold front allowing for northerly winds to
decrease to 10 knots or less on sunday. easterly flow increases
to 10-15 knots on monday before southerly flow returns on
tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas/26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
456
fxus63 kiwx 061630
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1230 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

.key messages...

- increasingly humid with 60-80% chances for showers and storms
this afternoon and evening.

- there is a slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) along
and south of us 30 today. best chances for severe weather will
be between 3-9 pm edt with damaging winds and large hail as
the main threats.

- daily periodic chances for showers and storms possible through next
weekend, especially monday into tuesday night with 60-80%
chances.

- hot and humid, especially from wednesday into next weekend. first
90+ degree day of the year likely by late next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1226 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

visible satellite imagery illustrates that clearing is ongoing for
our forecast area as of midday. a cold front currently extends from
rockford, il over lake michigan to grand haven, mi. out ahead of it,
an outflow boundary is noted in the wpc surface analysis over
la porte and berrien counties. large scale ascent amidst an
unstable environment will allow for scattered discrete storms to
develop along that remnant outflow boundary as the cold front
pushes southward. severe weather is most likely today during
peak heating hours (3 pm edt and onwards). concerns yesterday
and overnight were that coverage and intensity of storms would
depend on how the morning evolved. the environment has recovered
favorably behind morning convection with 2500 j/kg of sbcape
noted in northwest indiana with an uncapped environment. 0- 6km
shear has increased as well to around 35-40 kts. however, it is
important to note that lapse rates are meager in both the low
and mid levels at only around 6-6.5 c/km. recent surface observations
show that increased moisture has worked into the area with
dewpoints around 70 and increased waa due to southwesterly winds.
increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the
low to mid 80s today) to support explosive sbcape of up to 3000
j/kg. no towering cumulus can be seen on satellite yet, but
convective initiation should occur in the next few hours mainly
along and south of i-80/i-90. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather is in place across northwest ohio and northern
indiana, mainly along and south of us 30 where the greatest
coverage of storms is expected. despite lapse rates not being as
steep as previously forecast, scattered instances of damaging
wind and hail are still expected today along and south of us 30
given aforementioned favorable shear and instability. with pwats
around 1.5", even sub-severe storms will likely be efficient
rainfall producers today with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr.

the aforementioned cold front will stall over our forecast area
(most likely the us 24 corridor) overnight into sunday morning,
resulting in lingering showers and storms. as instability builds
during the daytime, chances for precipitation creep back up in the
vicinity of the stalled front, mainly along and south of us 30. high
pressure centered over ontario will keep lower michigan mainly dry
tomorrow. highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

the stationary front then is pulled northward as a developing low
pressure system lifts into the upper midwest into wisconsin on
monday. this frontal system will bring renewed chances for rain and
storms as high as 60-80% area-wide, mainly monday afternoon through
tuesday.

it will then become hot and humid, especially from wednesday onwards
into next weekend. as an upper level ridge builds across the central
conus, summer-like temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are
anticipated. the first 90+ degree day is likely for many locations
by the end of the week. heat indices may approach 100 degrees during
peak heating hours. depending on the amplitude and center of
the upper level ridge, there could be daily periodic chances for
rain/storms by mid to late in the week. for now, have kept nbm
low chances (20-40% each day) for wednesday and beyond in the
forecast due to low confidence.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1213 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

inherited tafs are overall in good shape for the 18z cycle. ksbn
continues to look dry for the remainder of day; cannot
completely rule out an isolated -tsra prior to 23z, yet most
guidance suggests storms develop south of ksbn. the prob30 group
continues at kfwa as there remains uncertainty with the
coverage of storms this afternoon. satellite will be monitored
closely these next few hours. otherwise, at both sites, wind is
light and variable for a time overnight before becoming easterly
with high pressure setting to our north.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
354
fxus63 kdtx 061717
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
117 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

.key messages...

- isolated thunderstorm redevelopment possible this afternoon. there
is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail.

- dry sunday and monday followed by building heat with reoccurring
periods of thunderstorms tuesday onward.

&&

.aviation...

low level vfr cu field in place across the southern tafs sites (dtw-
yip-det) with modest low level convergence and sufficient
instability around to potentially allow for isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, but confidence
remains low in storms directly impacting terminals. surface pressure
gradient has weakened compared to this morning, which will make for
lower westerly winds speeds, mostly under 10 knots.

drier air this evening allows for clear skies with light northerly
winds trending northeast sunday morning. thus, there is some concern
the prolonged flow off lake huron could be sufficient to generate
low stratus by sunrise, with mbs standing the best chance of being
impacted. introduced few-sct015 group in the northern tafs for now
to advertise this possibilty, as confidence is low. otherwise,
mostly clear skies expected tomorrow, with just a touch (few-sct) of
diurnal vfr cu development.

d21/dtw convection...low probability for an isolated thunderstorm
through 21z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms this afternoon.

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am edt sat jun 6 2026

discussion...

ongoing line of convection stretches from lapeer to coldwater,
marching steadily eastward at 45 mph. this line continues to decay as
it encounters a more stable environment over se michigan. nonetheless,
most locations see measurable rain before the line departs into
ontario by 10z (6am). drier air then filters in for the morning
hours, with pockets of clearing possible especially across the north
given trends over northern lower michigan/wisconsin.

weak cold front slowly drops across southern michigan through the
day, noted by a subtle veering trend in wind direction and lowering
dewpoints. not much of an impact on temperature prospects, as most
areas are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. the
front reaches the i-94 corridor around the time that boundary layer
destabilization begins early this afternoon, coincident with a
renewed region of large scale ascent as a second embedded wave
ripples along the ohio border. this wave should help isolated cells
break through the remnant subsidence bubble from this morning`s
convection. the strongest updrafts will be able to take advantage of
mid-level dry air (dcape over 1000 j/kg) and lapse rates ~6.5 c/km,
capable of producing isolated damaging winds and large hail. outside
of isolated thunderstorm activity along/south of i-94, most of se
michigan stays dry after this morning round of convection exits.

post-frontal anticyclonic flow develops this evening, clearing out
moisture with pwat values dropping to roughly 0.7" by sunday
morning. this establishes a sharp moisture gradient upstream that
will stall on the periphery of the high through at least monday
morning. locally, a dry and stable column affords plenty of sunshine
sunday and early monday while 500mb heights approach an anomalous
590 dam overhead (99th percentile climatologically). daytime highs
in the low to mid 80s will be the coolest we see through the rest of
the forecast period.

ridge amplification will quickly be disrupted by the slow migration
of a pacific wave toward the great lakes, releasing the moisture
gradient into se michigan monday afternoon. modest height falls then
peak tuesday while moisture transport ramps up to bring the next
opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area.
main concern for tuesday is a heavy rainfall threat as a very
moisture-rich environment develops (low 70s dewpoints and pwat of
2.0 inches) alongside tall/skinny cape profiles and weak cloud layer
winds. wpc maintains a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across
lower michigan. the severe threat will be much more isolated and
mainly the result of any precipitation-loaded downbursts given weak
column winds.

return flow becomes well established wednesday onward as 850mb
temperatures climb toward 20 c. this leads to a warming trend in
which highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat
indices nearing 100 degrees given the humid antecedent airmass.
destabilization is expected each day leading to daily afternoon-
evening thunderstorm chances, which introduces uncertainty to the
high temperature forecast. nonetheless, next week brings several
flavors of impactful weather to watch: heat, heavy rain, and
thunderstorm potential.

marine...

weak surface low tracking through northern lake huron early this
morning taking the bulk of the showers with it. bulk of the day
today looks dry, with light, mostly westerly winds today. however, a
weak cold front will sink southward late in the day, serving as the
focal point for scattered, potentially marginally severe
thunderstorms, with the highest probability over lake st. clair and
lake erie. very light northeast flow and dry conditions will follow
for saturday night and sunday. warm and humid weather returns early
next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms on tuesday. an upper
level ridge will become reestablished for the mid week period,
resulting in mainly light winds and and hot temperatures through the
end of the work week.

hydrology...

a line of decaying showers and thunderstorms impacts se michigan
early this morning with rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.75" possible.
isolated thunderstorms may then redevelop early this afternoon
(primarily south of i-94), bringing localized daily rainfall amounts
over an inch. the extended period of dry conditions recently
suggests the potential for flooding is low, but isolated flooding
will be possible if any of the higher amounts affect the typical
flood prone locations in urban areas. additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected next week as an extended stretch of warm
and unstable conditions develop. heavy rain will be possible tuesday
onward.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...mv
marine.......sf
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.