Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
442
fxus61 kcle 271849
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
249 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast. precipitation chances
for thursday continue to trend later.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue through wednesday with dry,
seasonable weather expected. precipitation returns thursday with low
confidence in timing.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to build across the northern great lakes
through wednesday with pleasant, seasonable weather expected.
temperatures through then will be in the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows down into the low to mid 50s. the low pressure off
the east coast currently will start to drift westward this evening
and there will be a low chance in precipitation across far ne oh and
nw pa, but confidence is low since there will be plenty of dry air
across the region to compete with. the next chance for precipitation
will be with a low pressure system moving into the region from the
west on thursday. there`s still low confidence on this system as
model guidance has continued to vary with timing as it moves
eastward.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr is expected across the area through late tonight before
patchy inland fog and low stratus develop and mid-level clouds
move in from the east late tonight into early monday. ifr
conditions are likely at kmfd early monday morning, although
there is a low-end chance that sub-vfr conditions briefly
impact kcak/kcle. there`s some uncertainty with how low
ceilings get during the day monday at kcak/kyng/keri. at the
moment, ceilings will probably be around 3500 ft, although mvfr
ceilings are possible, especially at keri. some guidance
suggests that ceilings might even dip as low as ifr, but would
like to see how guidance and observations trend before becoming
more pessimistic with the forecast.

winds will be out of the north at 8 to 14 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots through early this evening before winds diminish
to 10 knots or less tonight through the rest of the taf period.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. non-
vfr possible in scattered showers on thursday and friday.

&&

.marine...
there will be choppy conditions across lake erie beginning this
evening with onshore winds increasing to 10-20 knots and waves
building to 2-4 feet. this will continue through monday afternoon
when the winds and waves begin to subside to less than 10 knots and
less than 2 feet across the lake. high pressure will build back
overhead during the middle of the week and winds will then shift to
be out of the south by tuesday night at 5-10 knots. low pressure
begins to move into the region early thursday and winds will
increase out of the south-southwest to 10-15 knots through the late
evening.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
668
fxus63 kiwx 271744
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
144 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions persist through at least tuesday with slowly
moderating temperatures.

- the next chance (50-70%) of rain arrives on thursday.
thunderstorms are possible but severe weather and heavy rain
are not expected.

- confidence in the forecast beyond thursday is low but it does
appear to trend toward cooler and drier weather returning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

very little change in the forecast over the next 24-48 hours as
surface and upper air pattern remains relatively stagnant thanks to
bookend lows over new england and california. this leaves persistent
mid/upper level ridging over the great lakes. these features do
slowly drift eastward during this time with some modest return flow
starting later tue but overall a lean toward persistence is
warranted, especially for monday. this entails another night of good
radiational cooling (though probably not quite as cold as last
night) followed by a large diurnal swing into monday. continued
previous trend of significantly reducing nbm dewpoints and enhancing
the diurnal temp ranges a bit. some patchy fog possible again
tonight but the signals in guidance are mixed and muted with another
day of deep mixing/drying this afternoon so will hold off on
mentioning fog in the forecast for now. with slowly increasing
return flow and deep mixing tue-wed, highs could make a run at upper
70s/around 80f.

still a fair degree of variability in numerical guidance heading
into the latter half of the week. uncertainty centers around
california closed low interacting with the remnants of hurricane
polo. the speed of a northern stream upper jet traversing canada is
also in question and the interaction of these features will dictate
our sensible weather late-week. earlier noted trend toward a slower
jet/trough and associated surface boundary continued in the 12z
suite, suggesting precip may not start here until well into thu.
reasonable agreement on this within the ensemble guidance so nbm
pop`s remain very low wed into wed night but do want to see more
temporal consistency before latching on entirely. there has also
been a trend toward a more progressive frontal passage late thu that
may clear our area entirely by fri. this would alleviate any heavy
rain concerns. severe weather chances also seem very low given lack
of strong midlevel forcing along the actual surface front and
overall modest low level moisture/instability as we enter oct.
however, would still like to see more temporal consistency before
latching on to any one scenario. still plenty of details to work out
for late-week but overall the risk of strong storms/heavy rain does
appear low.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1132 am edt sun sep 27 2026

light winds will prevail again with no major flight concerns. as
has been the case the past couple of mornings, can`t rule out
some patchy shallow fog or stratus. not worth any mention at
this point with low confidence if any of the sites will be
impacted.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
890
fxus63 kdtx 271900
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into wednesday.

- areas of dense fog are forecast monday and tuesday mornings.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of next week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...

deep layer subsidence across lower mi will persist through tuesday
as a broad ridge hold in place. the departure of the upper low over
the mid atlantic across new england on tuesday and height falls
across the upper midwest will actually amplify the mid level ridge
across lower mi, which will only strengthen the subsidence. forecast
mixing depths on model soundings and probabilistic temperature data
suggest a continuation of afternoon high temperatures in the low to
mid 70s monday and tuesday, while the large scale subsidence will
support abundant afternoon sunshine. late night and morning fog will
be the primary forecast concerns the next few mornings. nne flow off
lake huron will persist through tonight. given the response off the
lake this morning and considering dewpoints across the region are a
few degrees higher than yesterday, another stratus/fog plume off
lake huron and saginaw bay is forecast to develop tonight/monday
morning. a little stronger winds atop the nocturnal inversion and
slight backing of the winds toward the north may advect the
stratus/fog layer farther south into metro detroit. the low level
wind fields will be much weaker mon night/tuesday morning as high
pressure settles overhead, reducing the risk of advective fog.
however, residual moisture in the nocturnal boundary layer capped by
ideal radiative cooling potential will raise the risk of pure
radiation fog development.

phasing of a southern stream long wave trough with the remnants of
hurricane polo will transport a tropical moisture plume into the
southern and central high plains tuesday and will increase moisture
advection into a low to mid level frontal boundary forecast to
progress across the upper midwest and great lakes region in the
thursday to friday time frame. the front will be driven across the
region in response to the northern stream wave tracking across nrn
ontario. differences in amplitude and timing of this wave leads to
large spread among the model ensembles in timing the frontal system
across lower mi. trends in the latest probabilistic guidance are
supporting a later timing, leading to higher chances of an all out
dry and warm day wednesday. the potential for good frontal dynamics
within the high theta e axis along the front will support a good
chance for rain. within the latest probability space, that is
expected sometime in the thursday to friday time frame. high spread
in ensemble 24 hour forecast qfp values (ranging anywhere from a
quarter inch to 2 inches) is a result of the variation in ensemble
members as to how progressive this front will be across the southern
lakes.

&&

.marine...

high pressure now situated over the great lakes will hold through
tuesday. some periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be
possible across southern lake huron this evening. otherwise, wind
gust potential to or below 15 knots is expected for most locations.
wind direction will mainly hold from the north to northeast with
high pressure in place. a warm front will then move through on
tuesday which will shift wind direction from the south to southwest.
this will also bring the next chance for some rain showers or
thunderstorms wednesday and thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1259 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

aviation...

fog potential late tonight into monday morning remains the main
aviation concern; otherwise clear to mostly clear skies will be the
rule. dense morning fog at fnt and ptk finally dissipated late in
the morning/around noon. however, surface dew pts remain elevated in
the 50s (2-5 degrees higher compared to 24 hours ago). low level
northeast flow off lake huron will persist through tonight. however,
the actual flow at the surface looks to become a bit more north-
northwest, which adds uncertainty on the areal extent of the
expected fog, as it may be more confined to the thumb region. with
support from lamp guidance, confidence in dense fog is highest at
fnt once again, with some potential at both mbs/ptk. confidence in
fog developing over the southern tafs remains low, so mention has
been left out.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......am
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.