Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
789
fxus61 kcle 161942
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
342 pm edt mon mar 16 2026

.what has changed...
the potential for accumulating synoptic snow this evening across
eastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania has continued to increase,
transitioning to lake effect snow later tonight and tuesday. a winter
weather advisory has been issued for most of the primary snowbelt,
with a winter storm warning for southern erie county pa. farther
west, snow showers and a few snow squalls remain likely into early
tonight. adjustments have been made to the remaining wind advisories
as we approach the end of the windy weather.

&&

.key messages...
1) strong gusty winds will gradually subside tonight into tuesday.

2) a sudden return to wintry weather will take place through the rest
of today and into tonight across the area. a quick-hitting system
snow will impact eastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania this
evening. elsewhere, scattered snow showers and perhaps a few snow
squalls are expected late this afternoon into tonight. travel impacts
are possible across the area as the sun sets and temperatures drop.

3) lake effect snow will develop across the primary west flow
snowbelt tonight and continue tuesday, tapering off tuesday night.

4) unseasonably cold conditions through tuesday night.

5) limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend
expected wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1...

a wind advisory remains in effect until 8 pm today for northern and
western portions of our forecast area, and until 8 am tuesday for
lake, northern ashtabula, and northern erie counties. winds have been
generally gusting 40-50 mph (strongest in the wind advisory) and
will gradually relax starting this evening as the low-levels begin
stabilizing after sunset, and as flow aloft eases a bit. the
exception will be the eastern lakeshore, where the "warm" lake will
allow deeper mixing and stronger gusts to continue. with one more
push of stronger flow aloft overnight tonight into early tuesday,
expect occasional advisory-level gusts to around 50 mph to continue
near the lakeshore through early tuesday.

key message #2...

while the lake effect snow and associated headlines certainly catch
the eye and grab the attention, do not want to neglect the rest of
the area as we`ll all see some snow through this evening, which
along with lingering gusty winds and plunging temperatures can lead
to travel impacts...a shock to the system after the recent warmth.

starting with the synoptic snow across our east: a brief period of
impressive lift ahead of an amplifying and negatively tilted
shortwave, including decent mid-level frontogenesis briefly
intersecting the dendritic growth zone, will lift northeast across
eastern oh and western pa through this evening. rain/snow is
beginning to spread in quickly this afternoon, and will quickly turn
steadier/heavier and change to all snow between 4-6 pm. while the
warm ground will initially stave off impacts to roads, expect that to
quickly change around and after sunset as temperatures plunge into
the 20s. along with continued gusty winds, am expecting travel
impacts east of i-77 (especially from mahoning county to ashtabula
county points east) from this synoptic snow after 5 or 6 pm. the
steady snow should quickly exit between 9 pm and 11 pm. this synoptic
snow may drop up to an inch as far west as near i-77, increasing to
1-3" across far eastern ohio and to 2-4" (perhaps a touch more on
the hilltops) across northwest pa.

elsewhere, there are plenty of snow showers on radar to our west and
these will quickly spread east into and across our forecast area as
the aforementioned upper-level shortwave and a sharp low-mid level
trough axis swing through this evening. the low-levels will remain a
bit unstable through this evening, given sufficient low-level
moisture and steep low-level lapse rates in the lowest 8-10k feet.
anyone can see a quick, light accumulation of snow with these snow
showers as temperatures drop into the 20s through this evening, with
locally an inch or two possible (in short order) if a more organized
heavy snow shower or squall can develop along the trough axis. until
6 or 7 pm the warm ground should keep any road impacts to a minimum,
but after that time potential for more intense snow showers to cover
roads will increase. along with visibility issues, which will be
enhanced by the lingering gusty winds, some impacts to travel are
likely across much of our forecast area this evening. as temperatures
continue plunging overnight, untreated surfaces can turn icy. it is
worth noting that these snow showers/squalls will continue all the
way east across our area, so our eastern counties will likely see
some snow from the synoptic snow shield first followed quickly by
these trailing snow showers and squalls.

flow off of lake michigan and troughing aloft will combine to allow
flurries and some snow showers to continue overnight tonight into
tuesday across parts of our forecast area, with potential for another
little uptick early tuesday as another trough moves through. this
activity should diminish tuesday afternoon into tuesday evening as
surface ridging builds in from the southwest.

key message #3...

there will likely be a period of lake enhanced snow late this evening
as the snow showers and squalls associated with the trough axis
discussed above move across the lake and then east-southeast into the
primary snowbelt. temperatures aloft will be quickly cooling as
sufficient synoptic moisture lingers, supporting increasing intensity
and efficiency of any snow flowing off the lake this evening. some
hi-res models suggest that briefly more organized west to east band
or two may play out from near cleveland points east during the first
half of tonight, which could allow snow rates on the order of 1" per
hour to briefly focus across parts of the cleveland area and primary
snowbelt early on in this event.

there should be a brief period around midnight tonight where lake
effect snow loses organization and intensity due to a brief period of
subsidence behind this evening`s trough passage. another trough
approaches pre-dawn tuesday into tuesday morning, which should allow
more focused lake effect bands to re-develop amid continued west to
slightly west-northwest flow. most models indicate multiple upstream
moisture connections taking shape tuesday morning. activity likely
peaks in organization and intensity again tuesday morning, before
subsidence behind the trough and negative diurnal influence during
the afternoon hours causes activity to lose organization tuesday
afternoon. plentiful moisture, instability, and lift (including in
the dendritic growth zone), minimal shear, and weakening flow over
the lake can support 1"+ per hour rates in organized bands tuesday
morning. there is some question of if these organized bands will be
ongoing during the tuesday am commute or if they`ll really rip just
after the commute. some commute impacts should be planned for from
cleveland points east-northeast tuesday morning, though a couple
hours` worth of difference in when the bands organize will determine
how significant those commute impacts are. with a west to slightly
north of due west flow tuesday morning, suspect we`ll see one band
from near cleveland points east-southeast into geauga and towards
northern trumbull (possibly clipping northern portage), with another
band focused closer to erie county pa. there will likely be be a
significant change in accumulations and conditions heading
east/northeast across the cleveland metro.

lake effect snow will gradually shift towards the eastern lakeshore
tuesday evening and night as ridging builds in, with some
accumulations likely continuing tuesday night near the lakeshore but
at a reduced rate as moisture and instability decrease.

these were not easy advisory and warning decisions for a number of
reasons. the low-levels look slightly dry during this event and
winds over the lake stay quite strong through early tuesday. there
will also likely be periods where subsidence and/or diurnal factors
negatively influence the snow. however, the thermodynamics are
supportive of intense and efficient lake effect when organized bands
are able to establish. overall, suspect the heavier snow will be
pushed well inland. upgraded southern erie county pa to a warning, as
they will do well with the synoptic snow this evening and have the
longest fetch/most terrain to work with. went with an advisory
everywhere else in the primary snowbelt, and added trumbull. where
organized bands can sit for any amount of time, additional
accumulations from the lake effect of over 6" and perhaps up to 12"
are doable through tuesday or tuesday night...if band organization
struggles, additional amounts from the lake effect will be on the
order of a more spread out couple/few inches. there were enough
negative considerations to mainly stick with advisories, though
future shifts will need to closely monitor for organized
banding/localized overperforming and be ready to upgrade if needed.
ran the pa headlines through most of tuesday night, though expect
limited impacts in ohio after about midday tuesday.

key message #4...

temperatures will plunge into the 20s quickly this evening, with lows
in the upper 10s/lower 20s tonight with minimum wind chills in the
single digits. highs on tuesday will mainly stay in the 20s. lows
tuesday night will fall into the 10s for most of the area but with
minimal wind/wind chill consideration. while these values are well
shy of headline criteria, the cold will be quite jarring and should
be a consideration for those with outdoor holiday plans on tuesday.

key message #5...

no significant changes to the forecast were made beyond the next
couple of days, with a gradual warming trend and low-impact weather
expected through most of the weekend. a more organized system may
move through sunday into monday.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
conditions are quickly changing across the airspace this
afternoon with a cold front sweeping east of the area and rain
exiting stage right. meanwhile, several new sources for snow are
beginning to move into the region with a band of snow moving
northeast through ohio and some hybrid wrap around snow with
lake enhancement off lake michigan entering western ohio. these
features will merge over the area this evening and allow for
most of the terminals to receive some snow with higher impact
and non-vfr expected more likely further east. despite the snow,
ceilings will be mainly vfr with some mvfr in ne oh/nw pa,
primarily with the more persistent snow tonight into tuesday.
overnight into tuesday, the event will transition to a more
traditional lake enhanced snow event off lake erie. the primary
impacts will be to keri and kyng with intermittent ifr in snow.
any impacts to kcle or kcak will be more fleeting, depending on
the final wind direction off the lake.

winds through the period will remain elevated with southwest
flow and gusts to 40 kts expected through this evening. winds
will shift more westerly tonight into tuesday with gusts
remaining in the 25 to 35 kt range.

outlook...lake effect snow showers continue on tuesday with
non-vfr. non- vfr returns late tuesday night into wednesday
night with the next warm front.

&&

.marine...
a robust low pressure system and associated cold front will continue
to exit the region this evening. this system will continue to bring
strong synoptic winds with the strong low level jet and pressure
rises behind the surface low. gale force winds are starting to be
achieved across lake erie and winds may increase a touch further to
40 kts this evening. therefore, the gale warnings will continue as
previously issued. strong southwest flow has allowed for water
levels to drop in the western basin of lake erie to about 2 feet
below low water datum. water levels will remain below the critical
mark for safe navigation tonight and the low water advisory will
also remain as previously issued.

high pressure will build into the region for tuesday and allow for a
reduced pressure gradient and winds should ease across the lake.
there will still be 15 to 20 kts of west flow in the system
transition and the gale warning will need to be replaced with a
small craft advisory. southwest flow should be relax to 10 to 15 kts
on tuesday night and end any marine hazards. a warm front will cross
the lake on wednesday and southerly flow will be around 15 kts for
most of the day. it may be more difficult to mix down any stronger
winds with the cold lake and a marginally warmer air mass. high
pressure will enter the region for thursday and light southwest flow
will be expected on the lake. low pressure with a cold front will
enter for friday and winds will shift to the northwest and increase.
the resultant waves could rise to 3 to 4 ft and a small craft
advisory may be needed. high pressure and a warm front will enter
for saturday, allowing for easterly flow before the warm frontal
passage.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>011-
013-014-017>020-027>030-036-037.
winter weather advisory until 2 pm edt tuesday for ohz011>014-
023-089.
wind advisory until 8 am edt tuesday for ohz012-089.
pa...wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz002-003.
wind advisory until 8 am edt tuesday for paz001.
winter weather advisory until 5 am edt wednesday for paz001-
003.
winter storm warning until 5 am edt wednesday for paz002.
marine...gale warning until 8 am edt tuesday for lez142>149-162>169.
low water advisory until 8 am edt tuesday for lez142>144-
162>164.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
030
fxus63 kiwx 162324
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
724 pm edt mon mar 16 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers persists into tuesday morning. paired
with west wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, travel will become
treacherous at times. a winter weather advisory is in effect
for counties near/surrounding lake michigan.

- very cold tuesday morning with wind chills near to slightly
above zero.

- a weak disturbance will bring light snow showers across the
area late tuesday into wednesday morning.

- a return to above normal high temperatures late in the week
into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 231 pm edt mon mar 16 2026

a spectacular flip in temperatures from yesterday`s highs in the
70s to today near freezing temperatures today and lake effect
snow showers across the area with a strong upper level low
pushing through the great lakes region. temperatures will be
colder yet tonight with lows by tuesday morning sinking into the
teens. with still breezy to gusty northwesterly winds will see
wind chills down to near zero degrees early tuesday. with the
gusty winds and lake effect snows with around 3 to 5 inches with
a few locally higher amounts for areas near and surrounding
lake michigan a winter weather advisory will continue through
tuesday morning to address that fact. most areas outside of the
advisory will see accumulations up to 2 inches by tuesday
morning.

a weak disturbance will ripple through the northwesterly flow
behind this deep trough that will move into the northeast. this
disturbance will bring some nuisance light snow showers across
the area tuesday night into wednesday morning. less than an inch
expected with that disturbance and most areas seeing around just a
trace.

strong/broad ridging over the southwest conus/northern mexico
will begin to push northeastward and will allow for synoptic
warming across the region with the ridge axis pushing well north
into central canada. a warming trend from wednesday into the
weekend with high temperatures by thursday back into the 50s
with a few rain showers possible and then warmer yet on friday
and saturday with generally dry conditions and highs getting
into the 60s. slightly cooler on sunday with another disturbance
pushing into the northern great lakes.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 723 pm edt mon mar 16 2026

a large trough full of embedded vorticity pushes through the area
between this evening and tuesday allowing for the ongoing lake
effect snow. off and on snow showers has caused reductions in
visibility across both terminals today and would expect that to
actually become fewer and further between for fwa tonight. as the
daytime instability pushes away this evening, a multibanded setup of
lake effect snow will still be able to cause times of mvfr cigs as
well as times of mvfr and ifr visby at sbn. also expect gusts to
slowly relax this evening from the 30s of kts to the 20s of kts.
expect snow to dissipate during the morning hours tuesday
allowing a return to vfr conditions everywhere.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ tuesday
for inz005-006-103-104-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 11 am edt tuesday for miz078-079-
177-277.
marine...gale warning until 5 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
527
fxus63 kdtx 162247
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
647 pm edt mon mar 16 2026

.key messages...

- wind advisory remains in effect through this evening. temperatures
fall into the teens and lingering gusty winds results in wind chill
values bottoming out near zero late tonight into early tuesday
morning.

- stronger, more focused areas of lake effect snow showers may bring
periods of reduced visibility though this evening.

- tuesday remains unseasonable cold with highs in the 20s.
temperatures moderate through the end of the week, along with
additional low chances for precipitation.

&&

.aviation...

respectable mixing depths will sustain gusty westerly winds through
the rest of the evening. the eastward departure of the strong low
pressure system tonight will sustain a gradual decrease in wind
speeds/gusts overnight into tuesday morning. the coverage of snow
showers will decrease this evening as a mid level trough axis exits
east and the diurnal heating component is lost. continued moisture
flux off the lakes will remain supportive of some lingering snow
showers into the overnight, likely with a transition from more
cellular convective snow to more banded structures. the
northwesterly wind direction over lake michigan will keep the higher
chances for snow showers largely west of the terminals.

for dtw...westerly wind gusts over 30 knots will persist through the
evening, before decreasing overnight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet.

* high in precip type as snow this afternoon.

* high in crosswind exceedence this evening and early tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 pm edt mon mar 16 2026

discussion...

the main forecast concern through this evening resides with widely
scattered snow showers, continued gusty winds, and falling
temperatures. wind gusts of 35-45 mph will linger through this
evening so opted to leave the wind advisory going. as southwest
winds become more westerly and northwesterly through tonight, cold
air advection continues to stream into the area. this incoming
colder air has already allowed for widely scattered snow showers to
develop this afternoon. expect these trends to continue into the
evening hours. it is not out of the question that more robust snow
showers may be capable of significantly reducing visibilities. we
should start to see the coverage of snow showers wane as we lose
daytime heating. as the colder air moves in, temperatures fall into
the teens and wind chill values bottom out around zero degrees. a
few spots across the thumb may see wind chill values fall below
zero, where gustier northwest winds linger overnight.

overnight into tuesday morning, the main surface low departs the
region. with lingering lake effect snow downwind of lake michigan, we
may have to deal with a few areas of lingering snow showers into
tuesday morning. while the longwave trough departs the region, the
lingering pocket of cold air aloft will keep daytime heights in the
20s on tuesday with high-based flurries or very light snow showers
possible.

the middle/end of the week temperatures will moderate as the pocket
of cold air exits to the northeast. daytime highs will steadily warm
from mid/upper 30s on wednesday to 40s/50s thursday and friday. we
will be keeping an eye on a few shortwaves that dig southeast across
the great lakes region during this stretch. guidance is not in good
agreement with the strength and or timing of these shortwaves (and
no surprise) this lack of agreement worsens through the weekend and
into early next week. thus, we have low-end pops in the forecast
almost every day.

marine...

strong low pressure (988 mb) now exiting northern lake
huron/georgian bay this afternoon. strong southwest gales (40+
knots) have been observed across central and southern lake huron, as
well as lake st. clair and lake erie. the gale warning remains in
great shape, as winds shift northwest in the wake of the low. very
cold airmass for mid march standards to move over the lake huron
this evening/tonight, as 850 mb temps lower into the negative low to
mid 20s. this will assure deep mixing to support the gale force wind
gusts overnight. the thermal through axis to exit east after
midnight. this bitter cold airmass will be conducive to heavy
freezing spray into tuesday before winds diminish sufficiently and
airmass begins to modify.

high pressure to slide through the ohio valley tomorrow, with the
pronounced surface ridging extending north by evening. this is
provide a lull in winds, under 20 knots. however, moderate southwest
winds to return on wednesday as return flow around the high kicks
in, and low pressure tracks through northern ontario wednesday
night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory until midnight edt tonight for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 11 am edt tuesday for lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning until 5 pm edt tuesday for lhz361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.

low water advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning until 11 am edt tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 11 am edt tuesday for lez444.

low water advisory until 8 am edt tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...ja
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.