Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
341 am edt mon may 11 2026

.what has changed...
a frost advisory remains in effect for inland ashtabula,
trumbull, and mahoning counties in ne oh and crawford and
southern erie counties in nw pa until 8 am edt this morning. our
low temperature forecast has trended colder for tuesday morning.
a frost advisory or freeze warning will likely be need for most
of our cwa. the rest of the forecast is essentially unchanged.

&&

.key messages...
1.) below-average temperatures, overall, are expected through
this thursday night. frost remains a concern this morning and
overnight tonight into tuesday morning.

2.) unsettled weather, including periodic thunderstorms,
returns tuesday evening through thursday.

3.) a warming trend is expected on friday through monday, may
18th.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the
north-central united states and vicinity through tonight and
then crests e`ward across our region on tuesday. mainly dry
weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
ridge. net low-level caa persists through tonight, which will
contribute to continued below-average temperatures. highs late
this afternoon are expected to reach only the 50`s to lower
60`s. mainly clear sky, weak or calm surface winds, and low
humidity accompanying the ridge will promote efficient
radiational cooling this evening through daybreak tuesday, when
lows are expected to reach the lower to mid 30`s across much of
our cwa, inland from lake erie. frost formation is expected in
nw pa and much of northern oh, inland from the lake. many of our
zones will likely require a frost advisory or freeze warning.
will let the day shift reevaluate this potential. as our region
becomes located along the western flank of the ridge at the
surface and aloft on tuesday, net low-level waa will develop
across northern oh and nw pa. even so, increasing cloud cover
amidst moist isentropic ascent, ahead of a trough axis aloft
that will approach from the upper midwest and vicinity, will
contribute to highs reaching the upper 50`s to upper 60`s. this
increasing cloud cover may produce sprinkles over and very near
lake erie around sunset tuesday evening.

the ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward tuesday night
through wednesday night as the aforementioned trough aloft
overspreads our region as its axis moves from the upper midwest
to near lake ontario and the central appalachians. at the
surface, the attendant low should wobble ese`ward from the
northwestern great lakes to northeastern ny, which should allow
a surface warm front to sweep ne`ward across our cwa tuesday
night before a surface cold front sweeps e`ward through our
region wednesday through wednesday night. behind the cold front,
a surface ridge builds from the north-central united states
through thursday night, while the mid/upper-level portion of
this ridge should begin to build from the west by thursday
night.

net low-level waa ahead of the warm front and within the warm
sector will contribute to overnight lows reaching the upper
40`s to mid 50`s tuesday night. abundant cloud cover associated
with the low pressure system should limit daytime highs to the
lower to mid 60`s on wednesday, ahead of the cold front. net
low-level caa behind the cold front should contribute to lows
reaching the 40`s around daybreak thursday and friday,
respectively. highs should reach only the 50`s to lower 60`s
late thursday afternoon.

key message 2...
periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, are expected tuesday
night through wednesday due to the following: isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front tapping into abundant
moisture originating over the southern gulf stream and gulf;
convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold front; moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the cold front.
occasional thunderstorms are expected tuesday evening through
early wednesday evening as weak cape, including elevated cape,
is released by the aforementioned lifting mechanisms. during
wednesday night into early thursday, precip is expected to
transition to lake-enhanced/effect rain over and generally
southeast of lake erie, especially central and eastern portions
of the lake, as a primarily nw`erly mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air becomes established over/downwind
of the ~12c lake, at least weak lake-induced cape forms, and the
seeder-feeder process occurs at times amidst a sufficiently-
cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column ahead of shortwave
trough axes embedded in the aforementioned trough aloft. between
daybreak and nightfall on thursday, lingering lake-effect rain
showers should end from west to east and give way to dry weather
region-wide by thursday night as lake-induced cape wanes via
low-level dry air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion
accompanying the ridge that will build from the north-central
united states and vicinity.

key message 3...
a warming trend is expected this friday through monday, may 18th
as our region becomes located within a net low-level waa regime,
along the western flank of the aforementioned ridge at the
surface and aloft. moderating temperatures should include
daytime highs moderating from the 60`s and 70`s on friday to
the 80`s on monday. periodic showers and thunderstorms are
possible daily, especially during the afternoon through early
evening hours, as a low-level return flow of moist air
originating over the gulf becomes established, the boundary
layer destabilizes via daytime heating each day, and multiple
shortwave troughs embedded in the primarily sw`erly flow aloft
and attendant surface trough axes traverse our region.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions are expected to persist through the taf period.
an initial round of mid-level clouds will exit to the east this
morning and allow for just some high cirrus during late morning
hours. some lower vfr ceilings may return during the afternoon
with some moisture between 4 and 8 kft pushing south through the
airspace. high ceilings will return by evening with diurnal
cooling eliminating the afternoon cumulus field. winds during
the period will be light at 10 kts or less. wind direction will
be variable overnight before settling on a northerly component
for monday.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms late
tuesday through wednesday with lingering rain and low ceilings
through thursday. non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms on friday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue building from the northwest today and
allow for light northerly flow on the lake. this high will shift
east on tuesday and allow for light easterly flow on the lake. the
main window for lake impacts will be from tuesday night through
thursday with a low pressure system moving through the region. this
system will enter the northwest great lakes on tuesday afternoon and
extend a warm front across the lake on tuesday night. strong
southwest flow is expected to develop over the lake on tuesday night
with 15 to 25 kts of flow and a small craft advisory may be needed.
the low will move southeast toward the lake on wednesday and allow
for westerly flow of 10 to 20 kts across the basin. this low will
extend a cold front across the lake on wednesday night and 15 to 20
kts northwest flow will become favored behind the feature. these
elevated northwest winds will continue into thursday. with the
stronger onshore flow, some elevated waves of 3 to 4 ft are possible
and there is a non-zero chance for a small craft advisory,
especially if winds trend higher. high pressure will enter the
region for thursday night into friday. northerly flow will trend
lighter for thursday night before shifting to light southerly flow
for friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for ohz014-023-033.
pa...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
153 am edt mon may 11 2026

.key messages...

- frost most possible tuesday morning north of the toll road.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and
evening. the threat for severe weather is low.

- warm to end the work week, but rain will also be possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sun may 10 2026

dry and cooler air enters the area from the north as surface high
pressure noses southward. with 850 mb temperatures falling down
around 0c by 12z, the question of frost enters the mind. with an
upper low over in eastern canada, a shortwave rounds the base of its
trough through the great lakes tonight. this brings mid level cloud
cover that probably helps to keep the area warmer for a good amount
of tonight and calls into question the severity of the frost for the
area. at this point, it looks like the best chance for any frost
tonight is in outlying areas in our michigan counties: berrien to
hillsdale. will cover this with an sps for tonight. with the
low pressure system arriving tuesday, it is possible that cloud
cover and an increased pressure gradient affects frost chances
on monday night. the pressure gradient really increases between
6z and 12z so if the temperature can get to 38 or 39 degrees
early enough, maybe we can get some frost started before that
arrives early monday morning. otherwise, the best chance for
frost would be north of the toll road and probably closer to
i-69, away from the developing pressure gradient.

the aforementioned arrival of a low pressure system brings chances
for rain as early as tuesday morning. it is interesting to see dew
points in the upper 20s and 30s tuesday morning, but we rise to
widespread 40s by the early afternoon. it begs the question about
how much rain will be after to fall with the initial moistening of
the column. finally, the warm front pushes into our southwest and
the wet-biased nam has got 500 j/kg of mucape with it, whereas the
ecmwf is rather devoid of instability. this would seem to lessen the
chance for severe weather with its arrival. there is a moisture axis
that swings through with pwats around and just above 1inch as well
as sfc dew points approaching 60f and 850 mb dew points approaching
10c. if this materializes, there could be some locally heavy rain,
but the reduced convective element may take away some of the rain`s
oomph leaving it as more nuisance than anything.

we`ll be in the comma head of the low pressure system for wednesday,
but a bit of a lake shadow eats away at our better low level lapse
rates. still, towards the area of us-30 and i-69, it is possible
that we see some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts during the afternoon.
otherwise, expect dry weather from later wednesday through thursday
as surface high pressure pushes through.

for friday, a pacific trough comes in, but is slowly weakening in
what looks like an upper low. as it approaches the great lakes, it
deepens back into an upper low by saturday night with some rain
around later friday to friday night as a warm front pushes through.
a lot better instability gets into the area for saturday with dew
points reaching well into the 60s ahead of a cold front and we have
some shear to work with, which points to a potential severe weather
event. we could also see some 80 degree high temperatures on
saturday. subsidence follows for sunday behind the low allowing a
return to dry weather.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 152 am edt mon may 11 2026

a mid level trough digging across the western great lakes this
morning will bring some reinforcing cold air advection and the
possibility of some patchy vfr low clouds through early
afternoon along a zone of weakly pooled low level moisture with
the low level trough axis. sfc high pressure overspreading the
region today will lead to north northwest winds 10 knots or less
becoming light and variable this evening. vfr conditions are
expected to persist through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
355 am edt mon may 11 2026

.key messages...

- frost is likely again tonight.

- numerous to widespread showers with a rumble of thunder move in
tuesday afternoon and night.

- a warming trend carries temperatures above normal heading into next
weekend.

&&

.discussion...

great lakes weather is strongly influenced by cool central canadian
to midwest high pressure that moves overhead this afternoon and then
drifts eastward tonight. the surface high makes a more aggressive
move into lower mi after the larger scale mid level trough moves
eastward. the catalyst for progression is the passage of a small but
intense mid level circulation that moves overhead this morning. this
system is tapping the low to mid level theta-e gradient associated
with the ohio valley frontal remnants to bolster mid level cloud
production. a few sprinkles are also in play toward the ohio border
during the morning while the clouds linger with enough coverage to
substantially delay the diurnal heating influence on temperatures.
guidance max temps in the 50s look reasonable with the tri cities
down to i-69 having a chance to overachieve as sun breaks out
toward afternoon.

tonight starts out with high pressure centered over lower mi and a
pronounced 500 mb short wave ridge in place just west of lake mi.
confluent flow aloft forces deep subsidence across the central great
lakes leading to a higher confidence scenario for clear sky compared
to recent nights until cirrus arrives toward sunrise. the clear sky
and calm wind set up efficient radiational cooling and high
likelihood for another round of frost across the region except for
the immediate detroit area.

eastward departing high pressure and increasing clouds tuesday
morning are signs the next low pressure system is on schedule to
bring showers in by afternoon. this system is still moving out of
the canadian rockies this morning, however there is good agreement
among the 00z model runs that show the system benefiting from lee
side cyclogenesis and upstream longwave amplification today and
tonight. the strengthening process puts the system in good position
to accelerate northward transport of gulf modified air into
isentropic ascent along and ahead of the low track. general thunder
is supported by 850 mb li dropping to around 0c in weak elevated
instability across lower mi, ahead of the surface warm front still to
our west by 00z wednesday. the surface low and frontal system then
quickly move through the central great lakes tuesday night while the
500 mb trough attempts to close off over southern ontario. this trend
in the models is less progressive and maintains a cold core upper
trough/low influence over the central great lakes during wednesday.
mid may daytime heating then supports at least scattered showers over
se mi wednesday afternoon and evening.

despite the slower progression of the wednesday system, the late
week is still a transition period for the larger scale mid to upper
level pattern. extended range deterministic and ensemble systems
show good agreement on a solution that shows the mean flow shifting
from a high amplitude long wave trough over the great lakes and ne
states to more of a zonal configuration from coast to coast. the
height rises even into "just" a zonal flow add confidence to a
meaningful warming trend for the great lakes heading into the
weekend. a flip to above normal temperatures well into the 70s comes
at the expense of predictability on precipitation systems made
difficult by fast moving short waves within the larger scale zonal
flow.

&&

.marine...

high pressure influence holds over the region today and tonight
while maintaining light marine winds. next low is set to sweep
across the great lakes late tuesday bringing widespread showers and
a few chances for thunderstorms mainly over the southern great
lakes. in advance of the system, southerly winds strengthen though
with ongoing warm advection, thermal stability over the waters caps
peak gusts around 30kts. moderate nnw winds follow wednesday as
cooler air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing
gradient holds wind under 30kts. high pressure briefly follows to
close out the work week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1158 pm edt sun may 10 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions prevail through the taf period as conditions remain
dry and stable within the lowest levels. intervals of higher based
cloud within the 7 to 10k ft layer will drift through at times
overnight and monday as mid level energy funnels across the region.
winds becoming north-northwest overnight into monday as high
pressure builds across the northern great lakes. advancement of the
high to the east will bring a wind shift toward the east monday
evening, before becoming light and variable.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...frost advisory until 7 am edt this morning for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075.

lake huron...none.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......kdk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.