Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
551 pm est sun mar 1 2026

.what has changed...
confidence continues to increase in wet and warm conditions
tuesday onward.

&&

.key messages...
1) a chilly night is expected tonight with temperatures in the
teens for most of the area. light northeast flow could allow for
wind chill values in the single digits, allowing for a limited
exposure risk.

2) a brief period of freezing rain remains possible tuesday
morning, but potential impacts remain limited at this time.

3) warmer conditions with multiple rounds of rain are expected
tuesday through next weekend, bringing the potential for nuisance
flooding and rising water levels on area rivers and creeks.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
cold advective flow has persisted across the region today and
temperatures have continuously run below much of the model
guidance, especially with the northerly flow off lake covered
lake erie in ne oh and nw pa. the northern half of the area will
be lucky to achieve 30 degrees this afternoon. this
underperformance today is setting the stage for a chilly night
as clouds will diminish and temperatures will radiate out. many
areas will get into the teens for lows but some sheltered areas
of ne oh and nw pa will likely see single digit temperatures.
some light northerly flow may allow for wind chill values in the
single digits tonight, which could allow for a limited exposure
risk for those outdoors overnight.

key message 2...
a warm front will enter the forecast area on monday night into
tuesday. this feature will bring the first round of several
rounds of precipitation to the region this week. for tuesday
morning, there is the potential for some of this precipitation
to overrun the warm front. this would be in an area with
surface temperatures below freezing with lows on tuesday
morning expected to be in the upper 20s. with precipitation
being rain in the warm nose of the warm front, any liquid
precipitation reaching the surface would be freezing rain until
temperatures improve later on tuesday morning. therefore, a
freezing rain threat remains for tuesday morning, but the
potential impacts appear limited at this time. any initial
precipitation overrunning the front will be light and the
characterization may be more freezing drizzle than rain. in
addition, the front is going to advance north across the area
quickly, even when interacting with the cold lake erie, as there
will be support with a mid-level wave moving through the region.
the front may be slower in far nw oh and nw pa/far ne oh, where
freezing rain may last longer. these areas would be the ones to
be concerned about for any freezing rain impacts, if they
materialize.

key message 3...
the forecast for a mild and wet weather week continues for
tuesday onward. once the warm front clears the region on
tuesday, temperatures will build upward into the 60s and perhaps
even to near-record temperatures on friday. however, we know
that warm weather in ohio and nw pa in early march doesn`t
happen for free and the payment will be that the mild
temperatures will also be accompanied by several rounds of rain
that will move through the region through the weekend. overall,
the character of the rain will be periodic. believe that much of
the area will get about an inch of rain through tuesday night
and another inch or so on wednesday into wednesday night. there
could be some thunderstorms with the rain on wednesday and it
could be an efficient inch of rain moving across the region,
which could lead to some nuisance flooding. the main low will
move through on thursday, allowing for some additional rainfall,
but qpf amounts may be lower with a progressing system. there
appears to be a break in the rain developing on friday before
the next system on friday night, which could bring more
thunderstorms and rainfall that would persist into saturday.
overall, the flooding threat seems low at this time, as two
inches of rain or so over several days can likely be handled by
most areas and may allow for area rivers and creeks to be
restored, especially in nw ohio where a drought persists. if
these rounds of rain become more intense or closer together in
timing, then the flooding threat could increase.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions will prevail for this taf update. scattered to
broken high level cirrus will drift through our skies tonight
into monday. winds will be from the north-northeast 5-10 knots
becoming more easterly later in the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr likely in periods of rain tuesday through
friday.

&&

.marine...
overall quiet marine conditions are expected through the week other
than wind shifts. high pressure strengthening across the southern
great lakes region tonight and drifting east monday will lead to ne
winds of 5-10 knots tonight turning e monday, then se to ese at 5-10
knots monday night and tuesday. generally e winds are then expected
at 5-10 knots tuesday night and wednesday before turning s to sw and
increasing to 10-15 knots by thursday and friday ahead of a stronger
cold front and associated low pressure system.

the overall e flow through mid week will likely push the
broken/rotted ice westward into or toward the western basin, where
warmer water temperatures will aid in further melting of the ice.
the remaining ice is then likely to shift back toward the central
and eastern basins late in the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
601 pm est sun mar 1 2026

.key messages...

- steadily increasing temperatures each day this week with highs in
the upper 60s to potentially low 70s by late week.

- a wet and soggy week is ahead with several systems expected to
produce moderate to heavy rainfall.

- monitoring potential for minor to moderate flooding, especially in
areas where drought is ongoing.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 140 pm est sun mar 1 2026

a large area of canadian high pressure is centered over and building
across ontario and the great lakes region. this high pressure system
will keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal this afternoon
with highs only in the low to mid 30s to start march. with easterly
winds, we had some flurries this morning advecting off of lake erie.
with building high pressure overhead though, expect conditions to
remain dry through monday. a system will pass to our south across
the ohio river valley tonight into early monday; grant, blackford
and jay counties in north-central indiana have the best chances of
getting a passing snow shower or flurry on monday morning on the far
northern periphery of this system.

our attention then turns to the active weather pattern ahead this
week with increasing mild temperatures and several opportunities for
moderate to heavy rainfall. temperatures steadily climb each day
this week, although there will be a ~10 degree temperature
difference from south to north. the warmest day of the week will
be friday, when some locations south of us 24 may reach 70
degrees! prevailing southerly winds this week will not only
usher in the mild air but also aid in abundant gulf moisture
return. pwats climb to over 1" and southwesterly flow advects in
dewpoints in the 50s. a parade of warm/stationary fronts will
lift through the central conus and into the great lakes,
providing periodic chances for rainfall each day tuesday through
friday. a brief period of freezing rain is possible tuesday
morning in our far northeast cwa on the leading edge of the
first incoming system as a warm front lifts through the mid
mississippi river valley. otherwise, the dominant precipitation
type will be rain area-wide after daybreak tuesday as
temperatures climb well above freezing into the mid 40s to mid
50s. additional chances for rain follow for wednesday, thursday,
and friday. there is a marginal risk (level 1/4) for flooding
each day tuesday through thursday mainly south of us 30.
embedded thunderstorms may also occur on wednesday and friday
due to elevated instability of ~500 j/kg. locally higher
rainfall amounts will be possible in any storms.

with widespread, soaking rainfall likely through the week,
flooding concerns will increase. models are in fairly good
agreement about 2- 4" in qpf falling over the next 5-7 days
across our forecast area. this will be a welcome reprieve from
the dry conditions we have experienced throughout the fall and
winter. south of us 24 has only seen 25-50% of normal
precipitation for the majority of the past 12 months. this is
also where severe to extreme drought has persisted since
september. given the antecedently dry conditions, rain will
help to replenish soil moisture, but it may be too much for the
ground to handle. uncertainties remain in just how much water
the abnormally dry ground will be able to handle before it runs
off. repeated rounds of rain over our forecast area may
overwhelm the then saturated ground and cause minor to moderate
flooding. rises on area rivers in at least minor flood stage are
expected, especially by late in the week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 557 pm est sun mar 1 2026

vfr conditions expected through the taf period. a disturbance
passing to the south of the area will bring an increase in mid
to upper level clouds by monday morning. easterly winds 10 mph
or less through the period.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
623 pm est sun mar 1 2026

.key messages...

- cold tonight. a gradual warming trend will then occur during the
week.

- chances for rain increase tuesday into thursday. there is a slight
chance for a couple periods of freezing rain tuesday morning and
tuesday night.

&&

.aviation...

surface high pressure will build from the northern great lakes to
southwest ontario tonight. remnant diurnal, lake enhanced
stratocumulus collected along portions of the northern cwa is
expected to fade with the loss of diurnal heating. the combination
of weak upper level confluence with differentially warming midlevel
temperatures will keep statically stable conditions in place monday.
vfr conditions are expected with nothing more than high cloud from
the passing ohio river valley system.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5000 ft early monday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm est sun mar 1 2026

discussion...

an arctic high with a surface pressure around 1038 to 1040 mb will
slide from the northern great lakes this afternoon to the eastern
great lakes/upstate new york by monday morning. the ongoing
northeasterly component to the low level wind fields will sustain
some lingering strato cu and flurries across the thumb and port
huron areas into the evening. otherwise, mainly clear skies and
light winds and very dry air low level air will drop nighttime mins
into the teens, with single digit readings likely in areas which
received fresh snow cover. mid level confluence across the great
lakes will sustain subsidence through a deep layer and surface
ridging across lower michigan through monday. this will ensure ample
sunshine. slight low level warm air advection and an early march sun
angle will push daytime temps into the 30s monday, with highs
possibly touching 40 away from the lakes.

short wave impulses and upper jet influence will invoke waves of
frontogenetical forcing along the lower tropospheric baroclinic zone
over the ohio valley monday into wednesday. there has been some model
disagreement with respect to the extent of forcing within the mid
level portions of the frontal zone over srn lower mi tuesday into
wednesday. there also remains a wide variation in ensemble solutions
with respect to precip chances over srn mi. overall model trends
have suggested the better rainfall potential will fall closer to the
low level front over the ohio valley. residual dry air across the
great lakes will also be a limiting factor for precip chances across
se mi. this has led to some slight downward adjustment to pops
tuesday into wednesday, especially north of the i-69 corridor. the
influx of warm air will be efficient enough to support a liquid
precip type. dry easterly flow in the boundary layer may however
keep sfc wet bulb temps at or below freezing over portions of the
area, especially tuesday morning and tuesday night. this at least
warrants a chance for some freezing rain.

a more amplified and compact mid level short wave is forecast to
eject out of the central rockies and track across the great lakes
region thursday. there has been considerable movement within the
model solution space with respect this feature. while there is some
better agreement among the 12z deterministic solutions, there is
likely to be additional model fluctuations over the next couple of
days. this wave would likely draw a decent moist plume into lower mi
and is suggestive of a mild and wet end of the work week.

marine...

expansive high pressure in place over the entire great lakes this
afternoon, supporting light winds tonight, ~10 knots. as the large
high pressure center moves off the east coast late tomorrow,
strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the great
lakes region. with the increase in low level stability, it appears
winds will top out just around 25 knots over lake huron. a weak low
tracking through the northern ohio valley brings mostly rain over
lake st. clair and lake erie, with dry weather and light winds
returning wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns.
another warm low producing rain looks to be arriving on thursday.
easterly winds ahead of this low over the northern half of lake
huron look to be at least moderate (potential gusts to 25 knots),
but the increasing low stability should keep winds from getting much
stronger.

little if any cold advection behind the low thursday night will
result in light winds, with enough lingering low level moisture
around to potentially support low clouds and drizzle.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sc
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.