Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
721 pm edt fri oct 23 2026

.what has changed...
fog looks widespread and locally dense in nw and north central
ohio again late tonight through midday saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable conditions will continue through next
week. fairly widespread, locally dense fog will impact nw and
north central ohio again tonight and to a lesser extent saturday
night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a well established mid/upper omega block will continue through
early next week, characterized by a couple of closed lows
rotating into the four corners region and rockies and another
trough and associated closed low gradually lifting northeastward
from the mid atlantic region, with a sharp ridge in between over
the central conus. the southern great lakes and ohio valley
regions will remain favorably placed beneath upper level
confluence, maintaining strong surface high pressure of canadian
origin. this surface high is centered over eastern ontario and
quebec this afternoon and will gradually progress south into the
southern appalachians and mid atlantic region by late sunday
and monday. this will continue the familiar pattern of mostly
clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures through
monday, but afternoon highs will be slightly warmer as a se
return flow develops (mid/upper 60s saturday and upper 60s/low
70s sunday and monday). the main weather impact will be
overnight and morning fog. light ne winds off lake erie again
this afternoon have advected slightly higher dew points into nw
and north central ohio, and this low-level moisture will aid in
small temp/dew point depressions and low-level saturation
beneath the strong inversion again tonight. the fog was locally
dense this morning across nw ohio and lingered through about
17z, so expect a similar scenario again late tonight through
saturday morning. the most widespread fog will occur in nw and
north central ohio, but patchy fog is possible elsewhere as
well. this same scenario will likely play out again saturday
night into sunday morning, but more of a se flow during the day
saturday should keep low- level moisture in-check, so do not
think it will be as widespread.

a weak cold front associated with a mid/upper shortwave dropping
through the eastern great lakes will drop through the area
monday, but very dry air should lead to a dry frontal passage.
cooler conditions are expected post front tuesday as another
canadian high builds down into the great lakes, but the pattern
looks to evolve into more of a quasi-zonal mid/upper flow
across the conus as the week progresses due to the low/trough
off the east coast pulling away and strong pacific jet extension
into the west coast. this will support a warming trend for mid
and late week.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
scattered cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening. the main
concern through the taf period will be the potential for dense fog
to develop again across nw ohio. flow off lake erie will trap
moisture below a shallow inversion overnight and dense fog will
likely impact tol and fdy between 10-14z. minor reductions to
visibility are also possible at mfd and cak but not expected to be
as bad. winds will be light or calm overnight, developing out of the
southeast on saturday morning.

outlook...patchy fog possible again at tol early sunday morning.
otherwise primarily vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions will continue through early next week
as high pressure over the eastern great lakes gradually slides
south to the mid atlantic and appalachians by late sunday and
monday. this will allow ne winds this afternoon to become light
e to se tonight and saturday before turning sse at 5-10 knots
saturday night into sunday. winds will turn sw at 5-10 knots
sunday night ahead of a weak cold front, then nw behind the
front monday afternoon, with speeds still in the 5-10 knot
range. we will need to watch for possible small craft conditions
monday night and tuesday as a canadian high building into the
central great lakes sets up ne winds near 20 knots, but expect
quiet conditions to return by wednesday as the high drifts
east.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...10
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 232338
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
738 pm edt fri oct 23 2026

.key messages...

- locally dense fog possible again early saturday morning,
especially northeast of fort wayne, in.

- tranquil fall weather continues with mild temperatures, light
winds, and sunshine.

- no rain chances until late next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1247 pm edt fri oct 23 2026

a largely stagnant synoptic pattern called an omega block will allow
for mild and dry conditions to continue. upper air observations
depict a large upper level ridge continuing to build over the
central conus this morning; as this feature gradually continues
to amplify in the coming days, it will shift eastward over the
great lakes. sinking air underneath the upper level ridge will
result our prolonged stretch of dry conditions, mild
temperatures, and light winds continuing. high temperatures will
be in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the low to mid 40s
each day. with the omega block expected to break down by the
middle of next week, there are some signals in long range model
guidance that a pattern change is ahead by the end of the month
into early november. warmer than normal temperatures are likely
to persist, however, a flip to more active, wetter weather is
possible by late next week just in time for halloween.

with the stagnant pattern locked in place, clear skies and light
northeasterly flow off of lake erie will likely yield some patchy
dense advection fog overnight into early saturday morning. best
chances for fog will likely be northeast of fort wayne, in as this
is where the smallest dewpoint depressions and best moisture will be
for fog to form. much like the past few nights, the best timeframe
for dense fog will be between 3 am to 10 am edt saturday, with the
lowest visibilities around daybreak. a sps or dense fog advisory may
be needed overnight depending on trends and where any fog
develops.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 735 pm edt fri oct 23 2026

continued mid level ridging across the central part of the conus
paired with surface high pressure pushing eastward presents the
local weather for this taf period. this allows high clouds to
attempt to come in through the forecast period. additionally,
continued light east winds will allow for another formation of
fog overnight and into saturday morning as marine air is
advected westward from lake erie. there is still some question
about the intensity of fog and if a southerly wind component can
keep fog north of fwa or not. therefore, will go with a tempo
of 2sm at fwa for now, but it is very possible future tafs have
prevailing fog in there. for comparison, the high pressure
center was in southeast canada this morning, which didn`t see
fog extend to fwa. that high pressure center is expected to be
farther south saturday am, which is where the southerly wind
component comes from on the western side of the high.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1057 pm edt fri oct 23 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for dense fog development each of the
daybreak periods through monday. any patchy/dense fog is expected to
dissipate by around 10 am each morning.

- mild and dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure centered to the east will continue to mark conditions
this taf period. attention remains on potential for some degree of
fog and/or low stratus to develop as low level moisture flux occurs
with prevailing low level easterly flow off the upstream lakes. the
overall environment not nearly as favorable as noted last night,
with the contribution from lake huron more limited. with that,
expectation for a response off lake erie will maintain greater
potential across portions of the detroit airspace. forecast will
continue to offer a window for lifr conditions in fog and low
stratus here. to the north, better setup for mbs given closer
proximity to saginaw bay, while some recent model guidance suggests
lower likelihood at ptk/fnt. any lower restriction will
progressively vacate through late morning, leaving another day of
mostly clear skies with light winds saturday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 349 pm edt fri oct 23 2026

discussion...

persistence forecast as ridging aloft with surface high pressure
maintains influence over the great lakes. expecting the blocking
pattern to hold through this weekend. models pointing toward this
mid-upper level pattern breaking down into zonal flow early-mid
week, but surface high pressure will continue to influence the
regional weather.

fog will again be the main concern tonight as it has been the last
few nights within this pattern. flow remains easterly tonight with
lake erie supplying the lower level moisture with clear skies
providing the favorable radiational cooling for fog development.
there is some indication on some model soundings that there is a
little more dry air at the surface compared to last night, at least
for eastern portions of the cwa. however, patchy fog will be
possible across most of the forecast area tonight. fog potential
will be in the forecast for each night and the following morning
through the weekend with the typical lifting of fog by around mid
or late morning.

thermal profiles moderate a little bit through the weekend.
temperatures generally around the mid 60s today and tomorrow will
climb to around 70 degrees for sunday. the low that flattens the
ridge aloft will send a backdoor cold front through the region early
next week and bring cooler temperatures. the front will have very
little moisture to work with, so expecting a dry frontal passage.
temperatures at 850mb drop into the single digit c range during the
early week. tuesday offering mid 50s to low 60s high for tuesday.
gulf/southeast us ridge directs any precipitations chances to our
west and north during the mid-week period as well.

marine...

controlling high pressure continues to migrate south over quebec,
moving into new england by tonight. light southeasterly winds trend
lower overnight, followed by a minor southerly shift into saturday.
speeds gradually tick upwards over the weekend as the surface ridge
maintains control from the east and the surface pressure gradient
constricts. an approaching cold front could briefly stall out over
the straits on sunday, which would conclude a prolonged streak of
dry weather. confidence remains low for rainfall with this boundary,
before it weakens and traverses the rest of the basin sunday night
into monday. a post-frontal northerly wind shift ensues, followed by
a few additional opportunities for some stray showers next week.
several waves of low pressure are expected to track northeast from
the plains through the upper midwest monday through wednesday. winds
and waves should remain below headline criteria through this period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.