Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 011736
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
136 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

.what has changed...
increased rain chances before sunrise this morning near the
lakeshore, and slightly increased rain chances tonight into
friday afternoon. also increased winds on lake erie this
morning through friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) light rain lingers near the lakeshore early this morning,
then very warm today followed by a soaking rain tonight into
friday.

2) cool and dry weather this weekend through mid next week.
frost headlines are possible monday night and tuesday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
rain showers overperformed this past evening and early this
morning in a zone of broad warm air advection and isentropic
ascent along and north of a warm front. this band of light rain
is gradually lifting north with the frontal boundary, but
increased pops along the lakeshore of northern ohio and nw pa
through 14z this morning to reflect a slower exit. additional
qpf will only be a trace to few hundredths of an inch.

by mid morning, any remaining showers will exit nw pa as the
area becomes firmly in the warm sector. a tightening pressure
gradient between surface high pressure over the mid atlantic
region and a cold front approaching from the western great lakes
will lead to gusty ssw winds over 20 knots at times, and this
combined with 850 mb temps rising to 17-18 c will boost highs
into the low 80s this afternoon. the aforementioned cold front
is associated with a deepening mid/upper trough over the
northern plains and northern/central great lakes, leading to
strong height falls over the southern great lakes and ohio
valley by tonight. this trough still looks to absorb the old
cut off low that impacted the desert southwest earlier in the
week, but the jet support and resultant surface wave on the
frontal boundary is trending weaker. this will result in more of
a frontal passage rain event tonight as opposed to a surface
wave riding along the boundary, so qpf is trending lighter.
nevertheless, the front will be slow to cross the region given
the strength of the ridge at the surface and aloft over the mid
atlantic and se conus, so expect the band of rain showers to
last from tonight into friday afternoon, only slowly ending from
nw to se. the right entrance of a modest 80+ knot h3 jet
rounding the base of the trough also supports enough
dynamics/frontogenesis for widespread rain showers tonight into
friday, so slightly increased pops from 23z this evening through
18z friday as the rain slowly sinks nw to se. minor instability
this evening could cause isolated thunder, but this will
largely be stratiform rain. overall, looking at 0.40 to 0.80
inches of qpf across the region, with the highest amounts in nw
ohio and near the lakeshore.

drier air will quickly work into the region friday evening and
friday night, but it will be the start of a much cooler pattern
as the elongated mid/upper trough takes up residence from the
northern plains through the great lakes and northeast conus, and
a strong canadian high at the surface builds down across the
great lakes. this will lead to a chilly night friday night, with
lows dipping into the low/mid 40s.

key message 2...
the mid/upper trough and canadian high will remain across the
great lakes saturday before another reinforcing shortwave and
associated surface low tracking near hudson bay brings another
cold front through the region sunday, effectively reloading the
trough and allowing an even more impressive 1025-1030 mb surface
high to build down from the upper midwest early next week. this
will keep cool and dry conditions in place, with temperatures
eventually averaging 10 degrees below normal monday and tuesday.
expect highs in the mid 60s saturday to slightly rebound into
the upper 60s to near 70 sunday before dropping into the upper
50s/low 60s monday and tuesday. lows in the mid 30s to low 40s
monday night and tuesday night could support the first frost of
the season in portions of interior north central and ne ohio and
nw pa. gradual moderation is expected by wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions will deteriorate to ifr as steady rain showers
push eastward across terminals tonight into friday morning.
latest href and glamp guidance continues to show high confidence
in ifr ceilings with the frontal passage. visibilites will also
fall to mvfr in rain showers. southerly to southwesterly winds
8-12 knots this afternoon and evening will shift northwesterly
behind the cold front remaining between 8-12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely with rain showers and lower ceilings
behind a cold front late tonight through late friday morning.

&&

.marine...
ssw winds will increase on lake erie behind a warm front this
morning, with speeds of 10-15 knots through the day. these winds
will quickly turn n and briefly reach 15-25 knots late tonight
behind a strong cold front, so issued a short-fused small craft
advisory from 03-14z friday from the islands to conneaut where
criteria is most likely to be reached (winds and 3-5 foot
waves), but it will be choppy everywhere. n winds briefly
decrease to 10-15 knots friday morning through the afternoon
before briefly nearing 20 knots again friday evening, so another
headline may be needed friday evening into early friday night.

ne winds will average 5-15 knots by saturday as high pressure
builds across the great lakes before turning s at 5-10 knots
early sunday ahead of another cold front. winds then turn w and
eventually nw behind the front late sunday and increase to at
least 15-20 knots sunday night into monday, so another period of
small craft headlines will be possible. getting to be that time
of year!

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 am edt
friday for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...13
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 011803
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
203 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

.key messages...

- rain and isolated thunderstorms this evening through mid-
morning friday. rainfall totals on either side of 1 inch.

- notably cooler friday through the weekend with highs in the
60s.

- very crisp tuesday morning with lows in the 30s (70% chance).


&&

.discussion...
issued at 202 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

warm, breezy, with increasing clouds for the remainder of the day
followed by rain and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front sags
southeast. excellent moisture return from the gulf is evident on
water vapor, as anticyclonic flow off a southeast us ridge funnels
moisture poleward against a low swirling over the ok panhandle.
forecast soundings overnight depict an impressive warm-cloud layer
of 12,000 ft, indicative of a moisture-rich atmosphere. boundary-
parallel flow through the column will limit the front`s forward
speed. as a result, fairly high confidence in rainfall amounts
tonight through late-morning friday on either side of 1". some high-
resolution ensembles have a few stripes of 2" totals which is
certainly possible from any isoalted thunderstorms that bubble up.
yet overall, with 10-day observed rainfall of less than 0.50", the
general feeling is that the forecast area can handle this rainfall.
we can address any near-term flood concerns with flood advisories as
needed.

circling back to thunder for a moment, the best time for an isoalted
thunderstorm is from about 4pm to 10pm edt when a narrow ribbon of
instability is maximized; still shy of 1,000 j/kg. tonight`s rain
looks to be primary rain event for the next seven days. low pressure
through ontario threatens to bring showers sunday to central and
northern michigan, while a second system takes a similar path late
next week.

sharply cooler behind the front resulting in highs friday through
the weekend only in the 60s with canadian high pressure moving in.
as mentioned here this morning, tuesday morning looks absolutely
crisp with lows in the 30s. advertised lows could be 2 to 3 degrees
on the cold side of available guidance (shy of the 25th percentile),
but within the realm of possibility. fear not, as temperatures appear
poised to rebound late in the week as upper-level troughing moves
east.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 120 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

a cut-off upper level low across central plains will continue to
get ingested by a more progressive northern stream flow across
the great lakes region into early friday. the combination of the
eastward progression of this feature and a weaker northern
stream upper level short wave trough kicking out of the corn
belt will allow for a southeast sagging low level frontal zone
to push across northern indiana tonight into early friday.
evolution of these features will allow for strengthening axis of
925-850 mb fgen forcing late this afternoon from central il into
south central lower michigan. some convective cells could
develop along a differential heating zone across far northern
indiana, with an eventual transition to more of a solid rainband
this evening. some weak surface based instability (200-500 j/kg)
could yield isolated thunder potential between 21z-00z but point
probabilities are too low at this time to include with the 18z
tafs. cigs should deteriorate to ifr later tonight as the
baroclinic zone drops south with a northwest to southeast
improvement back to vfr friday morning as drier low level air
works in behind the front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am to 11 pm edt friday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 011729
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
129 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

.key messages...

- coverage and intensity of showers increase across se michigan
tonight.

- there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall until showers end
with the passage of a cold front friday morning.

- low temperatures are projected to reach the mid to upper 30s north
of metro detroit by saturday morning.

- cool temperatures continue through the weekend.

- there is a low chance for a short period of light rain sunday.

&&

.aviation...

stream of gulf moisture ahead of a cold front and passage of this
front will maintain widespread rain across kmbs through the evening
and will increase coverage across all other taf sites tonight. mvfr
to ifr cigs are expected with the onset of rain showers along with
likewise restrictions to visibility under the more moderate rainfall
intensity. there will be a low chance immediately along the front
for acute stronger rain showers within a 1-3 hour window that can
bring very brief periods of lifr cigs. otherwise, winds will quickly
back from southwest to northwest after the passage of the front with
rapid dry air advection bringing quick improvements to ceiling
heights in the wake of the front.

d21/dtw convection...low potential for thunderstorms through this
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 feet this evening.

* low for thunderstorms this evening and overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 434 am edt thu oct 1 2026

discussion...

significant tropospheric moistening was sampled via the 01.00z kdtx
raob, marked by vertical continuity in saturation and a measured
pwat of 1.70 inches. this modified tropically sourced air mass has
allowed overnight showers to percolate with ease beneath sustained
perturbed flow aloft. the latest forcing mechanism has been
attributed to a series of shortwave impulses positioned ahead of an
inbound longwave trough moving eastward over southern canada, and
downstream of a southern conus closed low. the southern wave has
been responsible for the influx of eastern pacific and gulf
moisture, upholding the appropriate environment for this extended
period of rainfall.

the low-level jet moisture connection is fully engaged early this
morning, with both increasing magnitude (30+ knots) and trajectory
continuity. latest progs indicate the confluent stream arcs back to
texas where the remnants of hurricane polo merge with gulf-wide
theta-e advection. additionally, the two synoptic waves will begin
to phase during the pm hours, leading to a rise in upper-level
divergence and local theta-e convergence. this lends continued
concern for the localized risk of heavy rainfall later today,
especially as a cold front extending from the northern system tracks
southeastward across lower michigan. the period of greatest concern
will be as the frontal slope engages the peak in low-level moisture
transport late this afternoon into the evening timeframe, while the
system`s deformation axis centers overhead. see the hydrology
section for additional details.

latest nwp suite indicates peak 3-hourly rainfall rates between 00z
and 06z tonight as the front pushes through. winds flip
northwesterly immediately behind the surface front tonight, although
showers will be slower to clear. once aggressive post-frontal system-
relative isentropic downglide builds in, rainfall will quickly
conclude. dry weather is then forecast by mid-morning friday as the
great lakes reside downstream of building 1028 mb high pressure
moving into the upper midwest. seasonably cool and dry as the ridge
dominates. a clipper system could bring a few sprinkles through
sunday morning, while thermal troughing persists. 850 mb
temperatures crater early next week, with sub-0c values possible.
morning frost concerns may arise should lows drop into the upper 30s.

marine...

southwesterly winds will continue out ahead of an approaching cold
front, which arrives and stalls over southern lower michigan today.
with warm advection leading to more stable profiles and showers
moving through during this timeframe, wind gusts are expected to top
out only around 25 knots. with the front hung up until night, the
post frontal cold advection now looks slower; thus, the potential for
northwest wind gusts reaching or exceeding 25 knots looks to be late
in the day on friday as 850 mb temps lower into the mid single
digits by friday.

a large area of high pressure then builds in behind the departing
cold front on friday into saturday. this will bring lighter winds
for the first half of the weekend. a stronger low tracking through
the northern great lakes for the second half of the weekend brings
another opportunity for winds to reach or exceed 25 knots over lake
huron.

hydrology...

a mid to late week rainfall episode continues today, peaking this
evening and early tonight. it occurs as tropical moisture streams
into lower michigan, along and ahead of an approaching midwest cold
front. a more persistent band of rain is established across the area
this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region by
tonight, when moisture parameters peak. high confidence in rainfall
totals up to 1 inch and medium confidence in totals over an inch.
the low-end chance for system rainfall totals to reach 2 inches
requires a slower frontal passage, leading to a longer window for
persistent rainfall. the chance exists for minor flooding of low-
lying areas and ponding on roads across the region until the rain
quickly ends post-front friday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt friday
for lhz421-443.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am edt saturday
for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf/ss/kgk
hydrology....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.