Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
885
fxus61 kcle 261133
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
733 am edt sun jul 26 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast. there is still potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms today and especially monday,
but confidence in timing and placement of storms remains low.

&&

.key messages...
1) numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain possible
today through wednesday. storms may reach strong to severe limits,
particularly later today through monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
broad upper level ridge sprawled across the western and central
conus with deep troughing over the great lakes and eastern
conus will usher in a period of active weather through mid-week.
northwest flow will allow for a series of "ridge riders",
shortwaves aloft cresting over the ridge, to dive southeast into
the region. there will be numerous chances for showers and
thunderstorms, some strong to severe, beginning later today and
continuing through wednesday. there remains a fair amount of
uncertainty with the timing and coverage of thunderstorms given
a wide range of model solutions.

for today, some diurnal showers and thunderstorms may develop south
of the lake erie lakeshore this afternoon and evening. there may be
an isolated severe weather threat if we are able to destabilize
enough given robust deep layer shear of 30-40 knots. during the
late evening and overnight hours we will be monitoring the
progression of an mcs diving southeast across wisconsin and
lower michigan towards the lower great lakes region. this mcs
will be following an instability gradient and may just clip our
local forecast area to the west. future shifts will need to
monitor the latest hi-res guidance and upstream observations
with forecast updates likely needed for this timeframe. overall
confidence in severe weather today through overnight remains
low. the spc has maintained a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather today and tonight.

confidence in strong to severe storms increases on monday as a
surface low and cold front enter the region and provide additional
upper level support. much of the forecast for monday will heavily
depend on the outcome of the mcs tracking in the vicinity of the
region sunday night into monday morning. upstream storm development
looks most probable along the aforementioned cold front across lower
michigan during the late afternoon and evening hours. these storms
are expected to congeal into an mcs and sink south towards northern
indiana and western ohio by monday evening. damaging wind gusts
remain the primary threat in thunderstorms that move into the
forecast region monday evening. the spc continues to highlight the
entire area in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather with
a corridor of higher probabilities for damaging wind gusts extending
across the western two-thirds of the forecast area.

showers and thunderstorms remain possible on tuesday while the
surface low slowly exits the the east. we`ll begin to dry out
by wednesday as high pressure gradually enters from the west.
the exception will be a few showers across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania on wednesday in lingering troughing over
the lake.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
an mvfr stratus deck has developed and will envelop the western
terminals this morning into the early afternoon hours today
before scattering out and lifting above fl030. otherwise,
cumulus field to develop again with isolated showers/storms to
pop up, but far too low in chances for mention even in a prob30
or tempo and leaving them out for now. will need to watch
convective complexes tonight moving in from the northwest, but
look for those to fall apart on their way into the southern
great lakes, although shra could remain. winds wsw/w at 5-10kts.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms monday morning through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
west southwest winds today 10kts lead to waves around 1ft, with
southwesterly winds picking up monday into monday night. nearshore
zones will stay below 2ft for wave heights in those periods, but a
cold front coming through late monday night into tuesday morning
will bring winds out of the north 15-25kts, and a small craft
advisory is likely to be needed with wave heights 3-5ft through
wednesday night. wind speeds out of the north decrease to 10-15kts
thursday with wave heights gradually decreasing as well below sca
criteria with light and variable winds expected friday, and wave
heights finally less than 2ft.

there is a thunderstorm potential beginning late today through
tuesday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
849
fxus63 kiwx 260937 cca
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
537 am edt sun jul 26 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s today and
monday.

- strong to severe storms possible from 11 pm edt sunday to 7 am
edt monday. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- additional strong to severe storms possible monday, especially from
2 pm edt to 2 am edt tuesday. low confidence in exact track
and timing of storms. there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather with damaging winds as the primary threat
again.

- not as hot by midweek and mainly dry.

- high swim risk tuesday for southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 am edt sun jul 26 2026

continued waa and a moist airmass moving in from the west will make
for a hot and humid sunday. highs will be in the upper 80s to near
90 degrees with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. mid level stratus
are expected to persist through at least daybreak this morning, with
skies gradually clearing by the afternoon. skies may appear hazy at
times as smoke from ongoing wildfires in the pacific northwest
drifts in but remains elevated. no impacts to air quality or
visibility are expected.

the hot and humid conditions sunday and monday will fuel an unstable
environment for storms around the periphery of a building upper
level ridge over the central us. severe weather is possible late
tonight into early monday morning, then again monday afternoon
through monday night. 00z and 06z cam guidance is still split on
what exactly will occur, but the consensus is that timing is
trending slightly later on the first possible round of storms
tonight. some of the cams have storms entering our area as late as
daybreak monday. we will have to monitor upstream convection this
evening in wisconsin; if an mcs forms, this complex is expected to
move southeast overnight into early monday along the edge of the
upper level ridge. whether it maintains its strength into our area
is uncertain, hence a broad marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather that has been maintained by spc. if any storms do make it
into our area, damaging winds would be the main threat.

better chances for severe weather exist on monday with a slight risk
(level 2 of 5) and potentially more favorable diurnal timing. the
environment will be similar monday with a very unstable airmass
overhead due to the heat and humidity. should there be storms
in the area monday morning, lingering cloud debris could
certainty delay the timing but for now thinking severe weather
possible within a broad window of 2 pm edt monday to 2 am edt
tuesday. with up to 3000- 4000 j/kg sbcape, 30-50 kts of shear,
and 7-8 c/km mid level lapse rates, storms are expected to grow
upscale into a squall line or mature mcs and propagate
south/southeast through our forecast area. damaging winds will
once again be the main threat. a brief embedded tornado or two
will be possible as well as 0-1 srh values approach 150-200
m2/s2 monday evening into monday night ahead of the line.

tuesday and beyond will see a reprieve in the active weather pattern
as high pressure builds over the great lakes. dry and seasonable
with highs in the mid 80s midweek. intermittent rain/storm chances
by the end of the week.

additionally, as winds shift to become northwesterly on tuesday,
dangerous swimming conditions are expected to develop for southeast
lake michigan beaches on tuesday. waves of 3 to 5 feet tuesday
morning will build to 7 to 10 feet by tuesday afternoon/evening.
with direct onshore flow, strong structural, rip, and longshore
currents are expected. structural currents will be especially strong
on the north side of piers. stay out of the water and stay off of
the piers! beach hazards statements will likely be needed in the
coming days for la porte county, in and berrien county, mi.&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1254 am edt sun jul 26 2026

satellite imagery shows widespread stratus building across
northern indiana. ceilings have already dropped to around 3000
ft at both kfwa and ksbn. low end vfr to high end mvfr ceilings
are expected to persist through at least daybreak, with isolated
instances of ifr ceilings possible. underneath the cloud cover,
a moist airmass is advect in from the west, which means patchy
fog could develop. winds will be light and variable overnight,
increasing to around 10 kts out of the west by this afternoon.
dry conditions prevail with rain/storms not expected to return
until early monday morning.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 534 am edt sun jul 26 2026

few changes needed for the 12z tafs. variable ifr to mvfr
ceilings are expected to persist for another few hours with
stratus overhead. breaks in the clouds are noted to the west on
satellite with clearing expected to begin by 14-15z. winds will
be light and variable overnight, increasing to around 10 kts
out of the west by this afternoon. dry conditions prevail with
rain/storms not expected to return until early monday morning
around or after 06z. confidence is very low on exact timing and
track of storms, so will opt to hold off on any mention of
storms until the 18z tafs.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
987
fxus63 kdtx 260922
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
522 am edt sun jul 26 2026

.key messages...

- a little warmer and more humid today and monday.

- isolated strong to severe thunderstorms today, with a more
organized severe weather threat arriving late monday. damaging
winds are the primary hazard both days.

&&

.aviation...

a weak trough is currently moving across the airspace, which has led
to lowering cloud bases and light shower activity. ceilings are
forecast to remain mostly low vfr, although pockets of mvfr may
briefly mix in early this morning. departure of the trough combined
with diurnal heating scatters out the cloud deck this afternoon.
instability will then attempt to build overhead, leading to isolated
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and early evening. low coverage
is anticipated in the absence of strong forcing, affording low
confidence in terminal impacts. another thunder opportunity arises
early monday morning as a thunderstorm complex tracks out of
wisconsin along the instability gradient. whether this impacts the
terminals will depend on how far east the instability gradient can
progress today/tonight, with some model solutions keeping the
complex west of the airspace.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance for thunderstorms during
peak heating this afternoon and evening. confidence remains low in
coverage and timing. a nocturnal thunderstorm complex may clip
portions of the airspace early monday morning, with the best window
for thunder between 09z and 13z. there is a chance this complex
stays west of the airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less through early afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. low monday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 am edt sun jul 26 2026

discussion...

prevailing northwest flow in the mid-upper levels will persist
across the great lakes region for the next couple days given the
position of the large mid level ridge extending across the rockies
and high plains.

an ongoing gradual influx of high low level theta e air will
contribute to a warmer and more humid day today. this in turn will
translate to building instability during the course of the day, with
various hi res solutions forecasting 0-1km mlcape values ranging
from 1k to 2k j/kg. the northwest flow will also contribute to a
strongly sheared environment, with 0-6km bulk shear values forecast
to range from 30 to 50 knots across se mi. model soundings indicate
a mid level warm layer resulting in a respectable degree of capping,
which will likely limit convective coverage today. subtle large
scale forcing via low a amplitude mid level short wave will offer a
potential for some erosion of the cap today, warranting low chance
pops. taking into consideration the deep layer shear and good
downdraft cape, any thunderstorm that initiates will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

recent cams solutions continue to indicate the potential for several
clusters of thunderstorms across the great lakes region tonight
through monday night. trends within the model solution space are
suggesting the higher convective probabilities tonight into the
first half of the day monday residing either over western lower mi
or wisconsin/illinois along an axis of high instability. within the
model probability space, convective potential across se mi increases
late monday afternoon into monday night. a stronger mid level short
wave and associated sfc front will provide the dynamic forcing to
trigger more widespread convection. a continued strongly sheared
environment will remain supportive of severe convection, the coverage
and intensity of which will rely on available instability. the
uncertainty in early day convective trends will play heavily into
late day available instability. the potential afternoon recovery in
temps with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70 suggest diurnal
recovery may be swift. for this reason, spc continues to have all of
se mi in a slight risk monday. the uncertainty in the evolution of
early day thunderstorm clusters has prevented an outlook upgrade at
this time.

amplification of the longer wavelength trough across the mid
atlantic/northeast toward mid week will drive slight cooler and
drier air across lower mi. increasing anticyclonic flow will also
warrant an overall dry forecast mid week.

marine...

light southwest winds draw warmer air and greater instability into
the central great lakes leading to increasing thunderstorm activity
today, including the chance for strong to severe storms this evening
and tonight. the primary low pressure system then tracks across the
northern great lakes during monday. thunderstorm activity continues
to increase coverage and intensity with this system, especially
along the trailing cold front that brings a chance of strong to
severe thunderstorms as it moves through the region. outside of
storms, wind and waves are low until the northerly wind shift post
front late monday night into tuesday when speeds likely reach 25 to
30 knots over southern lake huron. if the low deepens enough over
the eastern great lakes tuesday evening, a short period of gales
could even come into play. winds slowly diminish on wednesday as
large area of high pressure over the western great lakes slowly
advances east, arriving on thursday. this will assure dry conditions
for those days.

hydrology...

convective rainfall chances will increase monday afternoon and will
peak monday evening. locally intense rainfall rates will be possible
with any convection. there is the potential for a couple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms over some areas during this time period.
probabilities for a quarter to one inch of rain are moderate to
high. the chances for locations to exceed an inch are low (less than
20 percent) at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...sc
marine.......sf
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.