Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
136 am est sun nov 8 2026

.what has changed...
no significant forecast changes were made with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will build in and turn milder early this week.

2) colder temperatures and unsettled weather will return towards
the end of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure over the lower ohio valley will start to build
into the area today. most of the cloud cover has eroded away
across northwest and north central ohio. lingering lake effect
clouds are still holding on to far neoh and nwpa this morning.
high temperatures will be seasonable today in the middle to
upper 50s. a weak cold front will brush by to the northeast
tonight and bring a few scattered rain showers to far neoh and
nwpa. monday`s high temperatures will be similar as today in the
lower to middle 50s. high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern through mid week with high temperatures in the
middle 50s to lower 60s through wednesday. dry weather is
expected monday through wednesday afternoon.

key message 2...
model guidance indicate the potential for an unsettled and
colder weather pattern by the end of this week. there are some
forecast model differences and uncertainty thursday through
saturday. the main message for the long term forecast period
will be an deep upper level trough will develop and dig across
the great lakes and much of the eastern u.s. thursday through
saturday. a low pressure system and cold front will sweep
through the ohio valley into the new england region thursday
into friday. depending on the track and strength of this system
will have an impact on what type of weather we will see. right
now, we will mention colder temperatures and the likely chance
for rain and possible mixed with some wet snow at times
thursday through saturday. high temps will be in the 40s and
overnight temps in the 30s.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
any lingering mvfr ceilings in lake effect stratus will
gradually clear out overnight. from there, vfr is expected
through sunday before ceilings lower across portions of ne oh/nw
pa after 00z monday. a few showers are possible at keri after
00z monday, although the better chance of showers will likely
hold off until after the taf period. conditions may very briefly
drop to mvfr in showers and lower ceilings at keri towards 06z,
but confidence is too low to include non-vfr conditions in the
taf at this point.

winds will be out of the west/southwest at 5 to 10 knots
overnight. by late sunday morning, southwest winds will increase
to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots with similar flow
continuing through early evening. by 00z monday, winds will be
more westerly with sustained winds between 10 and 15 knots and
gusts to 20 to 25 knots. winds may remain elevated along the
immediate shore of lake erie through the end of the taf period.

outlook...rain showers with potential for
non-vfr are likely across far northeast oh and northwest pa late
sunday night into monday. non-vfr is possible areawide wednesday
night through thursday with rain showers.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories are in effect today through monday
afternoon. a surface pressure gradient will increase today leading
to southwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. wave
heights will subsequently build to 5-8 feet across the nearshore
waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of the central and
eastern basins today. a weak cold front will swing southeastward
across the lake tonight into early monday morning causing
winds to return from the northwest 20 to 25 knots. high
pressure build in and remain in control monday with wind speeds
decreasing 10 to 20 knots and wave heights subsiding to 2 feet
or less by monday night.

there will likely be a brief window tuesday with southwesterly
winds increasing 20 to 25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet.
another set of small craft advisories may be needed for the
central and eastern basins. a stronger low pressure may develop
and track across the upper ohio valley later this week with
stronger winds and higher waves again on lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 3 pm est monday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
217 am est sun nov 8 2026

.key messages...

- becoming breezy today with highs in the mid-upper 50s.

- remaining dry into monday and tuesday with gradual warming.

- trending cooler late wednesday through friday with chances
for rain, mainly late wednesday afternoon into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 217 am est sun nov 8 2026

low level height field tightens today in response to a system
passing off to the north with diurnal mixing supporting a few
late morning/afternoon westerly gusts up to 25-30 mph. this
system does force a weak front through later today into tonight.
no threat for rain however given the dry column and overall
weak ascent. low amplitude west-northwest flow aloft persists
otherwise into tuesday with quiet wx and gradual warming.

a deep upper level trough remains on target to dig into the eastern
us late wednesday through saturday with deepening northerly flow
and colder temperatures. the last several model cycles have been
farther north with the leading wave and sfc reflection wednesday
afternoon-night with increasing prospects for a period of rain.
this low exits east into thursday and friday with colder
northerly flow in its wake. rounds of mid level dpva and deep
northerly flow with 850 mb temps down to near -5c looking should
support a healthy long lake axis response during this time into
far nw in and possibly sw mi. the lake modified mixed layer
could cool just enough for the first snowflakes to mix in
further inland later thursday night.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1234 am est sun nov 8 2026

vfr conditions expected through the remainder of this taf
period. a few lower clouds possible and a cold front will brush
our northern parts of the area overnight that could increase
lower clouds, but drier air in place should keep chances
minimized of that development so left that out of the tafs at
this time. westerly to southwesterly winds after 14-15z will
become gusty with gusts up to around 25 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am est monday for lmz043.
small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am est
monday for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
559 am est sun nov 8 2026

.key messages...

- milder and breezy today with gusts up to 30 mph.

- gradual warm up early this week with highs climbing into the low
60s tuesday.

- rain chances increase late this week ahead of a cool down.

&&

.aviation...

low pressure passing north of the great lakes contributes to a
strengthening pressure gradient today. southwest wind becomes gusty
to between 25 and 30 kt mid morning, veering westerly this afternoon
ahead of a cold front. moisture pools in ahead of the front with
boundary layer clouds developing overhead. potential exists for mvfr
ceilings - mainly north of metro detroit. frontal passage is dry
with a shift to northwesterly wind this evening. broken lower vfr
ceilings are favored tonight as wind magnitude wanes. spotty showers
will mainly target the thumb and saginaw bay vicinity.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am est sun nov 8 2026

discussion...

a dry and stable airmass remains in place this morning after an
extended period of clear skies and subsequent radiative cooling
overnight. temperatures have dropped into the low-mid 30s as of 3
am, with another few hours of cooling expected to bring lows into
the upper 20s in some spots. the decoupled boundary layer sits
beneath ongoing waa where h8 temperatures peak at 7-8 c, meaning as
diurnal mixing erodes the inversion, temperatures climb into the mid
50s. veering vertical wind profiles also show strengthening low
level winds throughout the day, which the growing boundary layer
will tap into to produce breezy wsw winds gusting to 30 mph during
the daylight hours.

looking at goes-19 satellite imagery, a band of mid-high cloud is
accelerating eastward into lower michigan on the nose of a 90-95
knot upper level jet (noted as the dry slot in mid level wv
imagery). this moisture corridor represents the lead edge of height
falls associated with the mature stacked low over western ontario,
which sends a weak surface front across se michigan by early this
afternoon. while the frontal passage itself will be dry, subsequent
cold advection will add to the moisture pool by establishing
moisture flux off of the lake aggregate. hi-res models show a
convergence signal over the saginaw valley/thumb which could lead to
shower activity across these portions of the forecast area, so long
as lake effect bands do not set up entirely offshore. elsewhere,
stratus expands south for mostly cloudy skies overnight.

cloud cover and lake induced showers linger into monday morning
before moisture is scoured out by the brief influence of high
pressure. surface pressure during the first half of the week
fluctuates between 1010-1020mb in a progressive, low amplitude
pressure pattern. the weak nature of the waves has little impact on
temperature prospects, with tuesday actually being the warmest day
of the period (highs in the low 60s) despite a surface trough
passing through earlier in the day. reliance on pacific moisture
just does not provide enough depth for any meaningful rain chances
over land through wednesday.

a more pronounced pattern shift arrives late in the week as a much
stronger low slides across the ohio valley, followed by colder
canadian air crashing in from the north. this could introduce our
first shot at mixed precipitation with the arrival of the coldest
air of the season.

marine...

strengthening gradient flow materializes across the central great
lakes today as the next low pressure system clips the northern
waterways through early monday. this initially supports breezy
southwesterly winds with gusts peaking between 25 and 30 knots,
considering the initial stable warm advection regime. however, as
this low exits, winds will veer to the northwest behind the
attendant cold front, ushering in the next dose of colder air.
instability then builds over the warmer lake waters which deepens
mixing depths and taps into stronger flow above the lake surface. a
gale warning remains in effect given the cold advection and
consensus in lower column wind speeds. gusts should hover near the
gale threshold across the northern half of lake huron this evening
through early monday. meanwhile, small craft advisories are in
effect for the southern huron nearshores. expect periods of gusts
at/above 25 knots and waves in excess of 4 feet. quick shifts to
shortwave ridging monday and then back to a troughing pattern with a
dry frontal passage develops early next week, with lower potential
to reach marine headline criteria.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est monday for lhz361-
362.

small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est monday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...mv
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.