Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
369
fxus61 kcle 051957
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
257 pm est thu nov 5 2026

.what has changed...
overall forecast expectations are unchanged for this issuance.

&&

.key messages...
1) another cold front, showers, and turning cooler through the early
part of the weekend.

2) turning milder once again into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
pattern turns busier in the wake of the second cold front coming
through tonight, and a closed upper low dropping into the southern
great lakes. line of showers with the front tonight, then a
transition to cold air advection showers with low level flows off of
lake erie friday through saturday night. showers in the wake of the
front will primarily involve the lake effect areas with near surface
f-gen occurring downstream of non-zero values of 0-2km cape over
lake erie. moderate rain showers for short periods of time will not
be out of the question as a result. 850mb temperatures below zero
will translate to upper 40s away from the lakeshore saturday and
lower 50s along the lakeshore, but still far too warm for any frozen
precipitation in the forecast. upper low and favorable low level
flows off the lake will exit sunday as high pressure builds over the
tennessee valley.

key message 2...
upper pattern more zonal through early next week, so this will keep
the warming trend on the gradual side without any significant
meridional swings to the upper level pattern. dry weather returns to
the fold with 60s back in the forecast for monday and tuesday.
looking at another brief and modest cool down into the end of next
week.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with deterioration to
mvfr from west to east across the area along and behind a cold
front late tonight into friday morning. brief, isolated pockets
of ifr are expected in low ceilings and rain showers along the
front and have this reflected in tempo groups. mvfr ceilings
will likely linger across the area into friday afternoon behind
the front.

winds are generally out of the southwest this afternoon, 10 to
15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. winds will shift
towards the west to northwest behind a cold front late tonight
into friday morning, 10 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in lake effect rain showers and low
ceilings friday night through saturday.

&&

.marine...
turbulent forecast for lake erie. southwest wind 15-25kts turns
northwesterly friday 15-25kts behind a cold front tonight. wave
heights increase once again 3-6ft friday through saturday. winds
return to southwesterly 15-25kts for saturday night and sunday with
wave heights remaining 3-5ft east of cleveland. another cold front
sunday night brings northwest winds back at 10-20kts and waves back
to 3-5ft.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...kahn
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
770
fxus63 kiwx 051843
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
143 pm est thu nov 5 2026

.key messages...

- patchy drizzle and light showers through the evening commute.
better chances (30 to 70%) for showers this evening.

- lake effect rainshowers late tonight into friday.

- seasonably cold this weekend with highs in the 50s. cold
sunday morning with lows near freezing.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 127 pm est thu nov 5 2026

cold front is located from nw lower mi to nw illinois with
coldest air lagging somewhat behind. area of weak lift ahead of
the front was allowing for some patchy drizzle or very light
showers. questions remain as to timing of the front and arrival
of colder temps and upper level/sfc troughs that will aid in
lake effect development. models vary anywhere from 00z fri to 3z
fri for fropa in the nw and taking several hours to work
across. greatest pops should focus either side of the front
where forcing is strongest with a return to lesser coverage
(possibly brief end) to showers. have tried to capture in pops
as best as possible. the larger challenge comes with transition
from a lake enhanced setup to pure lake effect. original signals
were closer to 12z fri, but signs seem to suggest this could be
delayed by at least a few hours as we await some of the
stronger troughs. still appears to be a window for 1 or 2 single
bands at the peak of the event friday afternoon. have also made
some changes with regards to timing and position, but
confidence is on the lower side on exact evolution. precip will
be in the form of rain, and as mentioned by the mid forecaster
some pretty stout instability could materialize resulting in
localized heavier rain amounts and maybe a bit of graupel if
sufficient height can be obtained. away from the lake, dry
conditions should settle in several hours behind the front.
can`t rule out some sprinkles or light showers with the passage
of each trough, but moisture will be more limited. temperatures
will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 50s and lows in the
30s heading into the weekend.

no changes in the latter period as high pressure will dominate
into mid week. pattern suggests we could be on the edge of a
more active flow with shower chances mid to late week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1239 pm est thu nov 5 2026

a complicated interaction between three areas of vorticity controls
our weather at the local level for this taf period. mvfr cigs will
still be possible this afternoon as our main upper low slowly
meanders northeastward and dampens out. those cigs will be more
probable at sbn than fwa, but will become even more probable overall
as a cold front pushes through the area. this is in conjunction with
a vigorous shortwave sliding southeastward down lk mi. that doesn`t
really get to the tear drop of the lake until around 12z tonight and
there`s not a whole lot of lake induced instability with only around
15 to 20c delta t. so would expect a multicellular disorganized area
of lake effect rain to get under way friday. a combination of
trajectories and wind convergence appear to take the best area of
precipitation south of fwa, but mostly through sbn with a quick time
period potentially west of sbn. this would lead to a continuation of
mvfr cigs and times of mvfr visby, especially as the main cold front
swings through. overall, trajectories will be veering from
southwesterly to northwesterly through the period. additionally,
focused on either side of fropa, sustained winds above 10 kts will
be likely.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
955
fxus63 kdtx 052047
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
347 pm est thu nov 5 2026

.key messages...

- showers increase coverage across the area tonight leading to an
active pattern that continues friday and friday night.

- temperatures return to a more typical range for early november but
are much cooler than recent days.

- dry weather helps temperatures rise a few degrees above normal
again during the weekend and early next week.

&&

.discussion...

a cooling trend is on schedule to bring temperatures back down to a
more typical range for early november during the late week. the
change is brought by low pressure and associated cold fronts
spanning the area from quebec, across the great lakes, and into the
midwest. smaller scale circulations within the long wave mid/upper
level trough are also regulating greater coverage of showers toward
the tri cities and northern thumb this afternoon. the pattern of
showers then shifts southward tonight along and ahead of the cold
front as it sweeps through se mi. low temperatures are projected to
drop down into the mid 30s north, but after rain ends late tonight.
lows hold up around 40 south of i-69 and across metro detroit to
ensure no precipitation type concerns, although freezing level drops
down close to 1000 ft in model soundings through friday morning.

an impressive round of mid to upper level height falls is shown in
satellite imagery this afternoon and model data tonight diving from
northern ontario into the central great lakes. this is the primary
driver of the frontal passage tonight before the system closes off
overhead during friday. scattered to numerous coverage of showers is
maintained by the strong 500 mb cyclonic circulation and cold core,
especially during the afternoon as surface temperatures strain
toward 50, and as the low moves slowly across southern lower mi.
temperatures at 500 mb hover around -22 c, about normal for this
time of year, but with the added boost from strong forcing and
daytime instability. shower coverage and intensity then pick up
considerably friday night as the low shifts eastward and the mid
level trowal/deformation wraps in from the northern great lakes.
increased model qpf reflects the 850-700 mb theta-e advection,
strong dynamics, and also a boost of enhancement from lake huron
before the moisture axis slides eastward saturday morning.

the 05/12z models show a faster than expected eastward progression
of the low pressure system considering its closed/amplified
character. the friday great lakes system reaches upstate ny during
saturday leaving lower mi dry with temperatures rising back a few
degrees above normal by sunday. midwest surface high pressure builds
into the great lakes as the northern stream westerlies shift back
north into canada. the resulting farther north low pressure track
takes the edge off the next cold front expected during the sunday
night/monday timeframe. guidance forecast temperatures around 60
look reasonable given this larger scale pattern holds through the
middle of next week.

&&

.marine...

trough of low pressure remains stretched from quebec southwestward
through the central great lakes today. an upper low will drift south
today causing the surface trough to close into a low over lake huron
friday before the whole system drifts off to the east for the
weekend. the trough will pull a cold front through the area later
this evening before the it wraps back up into a low. gusty southwest
winds today will flip around to the northwest friday into saturday
with more northerly winds across lake huron. the cold air advection
is helping to increase mixing depths over the water will help keep
the winds speeds and waves elevated through this time. this will
all lead to an extended period of small craft advisories across much
of the waters now through saturday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1210 pm est thu nov 5 2026

aviation...

cold air advection in the wake of a cold front coupled with the
broad troughing pattern will maintain copious cloud cover and cig
heights ranging around 2kft to 3.5kft. the boost in moisture
advection off of lake michigan has focused these lower-end mvfr
ceiling heights across kfnt to kmbs along with rain showers.

for the remainder of the afternoon and evening, rain shower chances
persist across these two aforementioned sites as the boosted mixing
depths help promote gust potential around 20 to 25 knots. tonight a
secondary cold front will push across se mi, which will result in a
quick flip from southwest flow to northwest flow along with rain
shower chances as a line of showers will be possible along this cold
front. a very brief period for ifr cigs (1-3 hours) will be possible
with the passage of the cold front, especially with any shower
activity. the reinforcement of colder air will sustain mvfr cigs
overnight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 2 am friday to 10 am est saturday for
lhz441.

small craft advisory from 9 am friday to 10 am est saturday for
lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......drk
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.