Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
796
fxus61 kcle 091142
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
742 am edt thu apr 9 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a front will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms to the
region this afternoon. more widespread showers expected friday
as the front sweeps through the region.

2) above normal temperatures sunday through midweek with
continued shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will approach the region today as low pressure tracks
northeast across quebec. some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front,
mainly north of us-30. some thunderstorms may be capable of
producing gusty winds as mucape values are forecast to reach
500-750 j/kg coupled with 25-30 knots of bulk shear. however,
not anticipating thunderstorms to reach severe limits. spc has
maintained general thunder across the forecast area for today.

the front and its accompanying showers and thunderstorms will
briefly lift north and stall over lake erie tonight. another
shortwave aloft will enter the region for friday which will push the
stalled front south through the day friday. expect coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to increase on friday. not
anticipating any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop as
instability will be minimal. overall qpf for friday will be less
than 0.50 inches which will curb any threat of flooding.

key message 2...
high pressure builds overhead on saturday behind the frontal passage
discussed above. slightly cooler on saturday behind the front before
a warming trend begins sunday through midweek. afternoon highs will
rise into the 70s sunday through wednesday. in addition to the above
average temperatures, this pattern change will usher in numerous
chances for showers and thunderstorms and multiple shortwaves aloft
eject out of the plains into the ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
vfr is anticipated through at least mid to late afternoon
today. by that point, a cold front will bring scattered showers
and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms into northern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania, which will be capable of producing
non-vfr conditions. there`s some uncertainty in the timing of
the best opportunity of showers; a few high res guidance members
suggest that storms will develop earlier this afternoon, whereas
others depict showers/storms primarily developing this evening.
the forecast is more optimistic for kfdy/kmfd/kcak and have
opted for a prob30 or dry forecast for these terminals since
latest guidance favors the vast majority of precipitation
remaining to the north of these terminals. can`t rule out some
gusty winds to 30+ knots in any stronger storms that develop.
showers will likely lift north towards the end of the taf
period. vfr is expected outside of precipitation.

winds will be out of the south/southwest at 10 to 15 knots with
locally higher winds likely at kfdy/kcle/keri through mid to
late morning. a llj will produce llws for the first hour or two
of the taf period before increasing mixing and gusts to 20 to 30
knots decrease the llws potential by 15z. winds will diminish
this afternoon with sustained wind speeds of 10 knots or less
expected by no later than 00z friday. another round of llws is
likely across most of the area as winds aloft increase early
friday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms through friday evening and again sunday night
through monday.

&&

.marine...
offshore winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected this morning with
the highest winds expected in the open waters and eastern basin.
there may be a brief period this morning where winds in the
nearshore zone from conneaut, oh to ripley, ny approach or
marginally exceed 20 knots, however at this point the duration
of small craft advisory conditions is too low to warrant a
headline at this point. will continue to monitor wind
speeds/waves and may need to consider issuing a brief advisory
for this morning if winds trend higher than currently
anticipated. winds will diminish to 12 knots or less and become
west/southwest by early this evening with wind direction
becoming more variable as a frontal boundary wavers over or in
the vicinity of the lake late tonight through friday morning.
winds will become northwesterly but remain below 15 knots as the
cold front finally moves southeast away from lake erie friday
afternoon. winds will be relatively light and variable over the
weekend, although marginal small craft advisories may be needed
late sunday into monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
646
fxus63 kiwx 091037
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
637 am edt thu apr 9 2026

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures once again today but cooler on
friday. temperatures moderate back into the mid-upper 70s
again for early next week.

- rain chances this morning (30-50%) across northwest indiana
into southwest lower michigan. showers should become more
isolated with southeast extent late morning into this
afternoon.

- rain showers increase in coverage tonight from nw indiana into
southern lower michigan and drop southeast into ne indiana/nw
ohio on friday. greatest potential of rainfall amounts in
excess of 0.50" north of us route 6. some secondary rises on
area rivers possible, but overall hydro impacts from this
additional rain is expected to be minor.

- much above normal temperatures expected early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt thu apr 9 2026

a band of rain showers continues to progress slowly southeast early
this morning from west central michigan into northeast illinois.
these showers are developing along pre-frontal forcing axis where a
narrow axis of low level moisture convergence is aiding showers.
these showers are also developing along southern periphery of upper
height falls which are centered across the northern great lakes
this morning. a secondary band of broken rain showers is also
noted immediately behind sfc front from southwest wisconsin
to northern lake michigan vicinity. through time this morning,
the stronger mid/upper level forcing associated with ontario
upper level wave will shift across eastern great lakes/southeast
canada as the primary upper level trough lifts northeast across
the james bay area. rain shower coverage is expected to be
limited late this morning into this afternoon as this larger
scale forcing becomes more divorced from slowing pre-frontal
moisture axis/associated cold front. did keep some slight chance
pops in place this afternoon as a result. thunder potential
this afternoon appears relatively low given limited instability
and lack of larger scale forcing. some weak surface based cape
of 200-500 j/kg may set up across central portions of the
forecast area this afternoon so cannot completely discount an
isolated storm. perhaps best chance of an isolated storm would
be if a differential heating zone can setup across far ne in/nw
ohio with lesser cloud cover far southeast. otherwise, for today
it will be mild with highs well into the 70s to the south of
the stalling frontal zone. breezy/windy conditions should also
develop again along and south of us route 24 where these warmer
temps will promote some better mixing.

some uptick in shower coverage is expected this evening as a broad
upstream mid level trough begins to induce stronger low level
flow over the stalled boundary across the southern great lakes.
this setup should eventually turn into a southeast sagging
boundary/low level fgen forcing scenario late tonight into
friday as the mid level trough tracks across the great lakes
region. weak mid level lapse rates should limit thunder
potential tonight into friday, with best chance of few embedded
storms late this evening/early overnight. sharpening
frontogenesis forcing tonight/early friday will have the
potential to produce at least a narrow axis of 0.50"+ of
rainfall north of us route 6 corridor, but lesser rain amounts
are expected for southern locations as stronger frontal forcing
should be migrating across the eastern great lakes friday
morning. area hydrographs do show some response to this
forecasted rain, but overall response is expected to be minor in
nature and currently not anticipated to have significant impact
on the ongoing river flooding.

seasonable temps are expected on saturday due to friday frontal
passage, with temperatures expected to be near seasonable levels.
mid level height rises in wake of friday mid level trough should
yield quiet weather conditions at least through first half of the
weekend. the second half of the weekend will feature a return of
stronger low level warm advection with more favored short wave track
expected from the central plains to the upper ms valley/northern
great lakes. by sunday night into monday, mid to high chance pops
(40-50%) will be maintained as central conus theta-e ridge shifts
across the region. some uncertainty still exists with shower chances
during this period due to likelihood stronger forcing will be
displaced northwest/north of the local area.

for next week, medium range guidance is in decent agreement that
split flow across eastern pacific will yield a stronger southern
stream upper trough which will eventually reach central conus by
next wednesday. confidence remains high in much above normal
temperatures continuing into tuesday with broad warm sector across
southern great lakes/ohio valley. weaker embedded short waves are
possible early next week in stronger westerly flow regime that could
induce periodic shower/storm chances considering some steepening of
mid level lapse rates anticipated during this period. present
indications would suggest perhaps best chances of more organized
convective chance by middle of next week when the western conus
upper trough ejects northeast. however, recent trend in ensemble
guidance points toward downstream upper ridging potentially holding
stronger across eastern third of the country into middle of next
week which could allow for some dampening of this upper trough
across the great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 630 am edt thu apr 9 2026

light rain showers will affect the ksbn vicinity for the first
few hours of this taf valid period as a zone of pre-frontal
forcing shifts across northeast indiana. the stronger mid and
upper level forcing is displaced well to the north and northeast
across upper great lakes into southeast ontario this morning
which should result in more limited coverage of showers heading
toward the late morning hours. a narrow axis of 200-500 j/kg
surface based cape may develop in kfwa vicinity just in advance
of this slowing cool frontal boundary this afternoon. with a
lack of forcing, confidence is on the low side concerning
diurnal redevelopment, although kfwa appears to be in a more
favorable position with respect to weak instability axis for a
isolated-scattered shower redevelopment. given limited
instability and uncertainty with coverage, have opted to refrain
from thunder mention at kfwa, although probabilities for an
isolated storm are non-zero at kfwa.

for tonight, low level flow will ramp back up in response to a
broader mid level trough digging across north central conus.
this increased low level flow will likely interact with stalled
boundary for increased shower coverage later tonight, with
perhaps an isolated storm. given boundary placement, would
expect ksbn to have the higher chances for showers tonight
although instability magnitudes still appear quite limited.
otherwise, will hold onto llws at kfwa for first few hours of
taf valid period this morning, and will reintroduce llws tonight
for both ksbn/kfwa as this low level jet strengthens.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
383
fxus63 kdtx 090940
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
540 am edt thu apr 9 2026

.key messages...

- a slow moving cold front brings and band of light rain showers
with broken coverage this morning.

- another round of rain showers with wider coverage and greater
intensity develops early tomorrow morning.

- dry weather and cooler but still near normal temperatures follow
behind the front friday afternoon and saturday.

- warmer temperatures move in sunday and monday but also with an
active rainfall pattern early next week.

&&

.aviation...

cold front on pace to slowly sag southeast across the area today.
the frontal passage will be accompanied by a narrow axis of higher
mid level moisture, with some pockets of light shower production.
retention of a dry low level environment maintains support for
prevailing vfr throughout this time. winds today increasing from the
southwest, with gustiness into the 25 knot range at times. a period
mostly skies or thinning cirrus for the afternoon hours, before mid
cloud thickens again this evening ahead of a deeper surge of
moisture. shower expected to expand in coverage tonight and continue
into early friday. potential for a period of mvfr or lower
conditions friday morning. winds flipping to the northeast/east
overnight as the elevated frontal zone strengthens over the region.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft today. medium late tonight
into friday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 209 am edt thu apr 9 2026

discussion...

the line of rain showers now moving in across the tri-cities will
continue to progress across southeast michigan through the morning
hours with an advancing cold front. better coverage is expected
across the tri- cities and thumb, aligned with the stronger forcing.
frontolytic tendencies increase as the front progresses towards the
metro region and into the mi/oh border later this morning and into
the early afternoon hours. expectation is for the line of rain
showers to hold up reasonable well this morning with some waning
coverage possible late this morning before the frontal boundary
stalls out around the state line in the afternoon. the stalled
boundary will support the low chance for lingering rain showers
through the afternoon and evening across monroe and lenawee counties.
high pressure briefly fills in in the wake of the cold front,
promoting clearing trends and sunshine across most of the cwa. the
exception will again be near or south of i-94 where the stalled
boundary will maintain the chances for more persistent cloud cover.
steep low level lapse rates during daylight hours will efficiently
mix into the stronger winds aloft, bringing breezy conditions with
gusts peaking around 35 mph.

aforementioned front will will lift back north tomorrow morning as
a nocturnal jet expands across southern michigan. forcing along the
front and strong unbalanced flow on the nose of the jet will generate
widespread rain showers across se mi through the morning. a rumble
of thunder cannot be ruled out where the forcing is maximized but
overall the environment remains stable, promoting mainly rain
showers. a strong high pressure system builds in late friday into
saturday. building subsidence ends rain chances through friday
afternoon, leading to partly sunny/mostly cloudy conditions as
lingering boundary layer moisture holds under an established
inversion. high pressure centers over the great lakes saturday.
strong subsidence with daytime mixing will scour out clouds, leading
to sunny skies and seasonal temperatures.

departure of high pressure into new england and western atlantic
with development and passage of low pressure over the northern
plains will set up a moderate pressure gradient over the great lakes
and will usher in much warmer temperatures from the plains into the
region along with along with an uptick in moisture. this will bring
a period of above normal temperature, likely with highs in the 60s to
low 70s at times, along with unsettled weather. passage of the warm
front and trailing short wave brings the chance for rain showers on
sunday and monday. additional chances for precipitation will exist
tuesday with glancing shortwaves, and again through the midweek
period with the passage of a cold front. overall, above average
temperatures with multiple rain and thunderstorm chances are expected
through the early to mid week period.

marine...

southerly flow gradually decreases this morning and veers toward the
west throughout the day, behind an ontario low pressure system and
its associated cold front. strong low level flow tied to the passing
low also departs which ensues peak morning gusts stay below gales,
particularly for central lake huron where there was prior concern.
the wave response becomes less prominent as the day continues, but
still exceed small craft advisory criteria for the southern huron
nearshore zones, therefore an advisory remains in effect. rounds of
showers decrease from northwest to southeast today, with low
potential for thunder. a wave lifting out of the plains leads to
additional opportunities for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
tonight and friday, while some light snowfall is more likely for the
north/central huron basin. high pressure then builds out of the
upper midwest to start the weekend with drier and weaker northwest
flow. active weather will be possible again sunday through tuesday
due to several passing disturbances. potential exists for gusts to
gales, mainly late sunday into monday.

hydrology...

a cold front brings a band of rain showers first into the tri cities
this morning morning which then moves to the south and east across
the rest of se michigan during the day. broken coverage of showers
produces rainfall totals generally less than 0.2 inch as the band
weakens while moving through the region and then exits by late
afternoon. a second round of showers develops mainly after midnight
thursday night and lasts through friday morning. this system brings
higher rainfall amounts over a wider area averaging about 0.5 inch in
a 6 to 12 hour time window. there is a chance for localized totals
near 1 inch where embedded thunderstorms occur before this pattern
also exits southward and eastward friday afternoon. flooding
potential remains low with this event, although the new rainfall
could slightly delay drainage from river and stream systems after the
heavy rain that occurred last weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...am
marine.......kgk
hydrology....am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.