Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
271
fxus61 kcle 121152
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
752 am edt wed aug 12 2026

.what has changed...
there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for
northeast ohio and northwest pa today. some showers and storms
could be strong to severe with gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of showers and storms remain possible through
thursday night. some showers and storms could be strong to
severe in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania this
afternoon with gusty winds and large hail. broader coverage of
showers and storms are possible in central ohio on thursday
afternoon and evening; locally heavy rain and nuisance flooding
is possible.

2) showers and storms could return as early as saturday
afternoon. rain coverage will increase into sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the northwest flow pattern aloft and stalled front to the
southwest will continue to dictate the weather across the area
through thursday night. for today, a mid-level shortwave will
ripple through the northwest flow this afternoon. this will
support a surface trough the will move through the eastern great
lakes and flare up showers and storms in northeast ohio and
northwest pa this afternoon and evening. with better lift in
this area and some instability, some storms could be stronger
with gusty winds and large hail, but any severe event would be
isolated. further southwest, the shortwave will reinvigorate
showers and storms along the front in indiana and southwest
ohio. some of these could spread into northwest and central ohio
this afternoon. any afternoon and evening activity should
largely wipe out instability and any large development tonight,
but some stray showers may develop over and near the lake with
some isentropic lift over the area.

for thursday into thursday night, the front to the southwest
will try to lift north and get into central ohio, if not into
the southwest portions of the forecast area. one more shortwave
will ripple through the northwest flow aloft and allow for more
rain and storms to develop. believe that any storms with any
bite to them will be southwest of the forecast area with the
better instability. however, any storms will have heavy rain and
the potential for localized flooding does exist. high pressure
will build from the northwest for friday, pushing the front and
rain chances out of the area.

key message 2...
the upper ridge over the ohio and tennessee valleys will recede
south a bit on saturday into sunday and allow for northwest flow
on the northeast side of the ridge. this will allow for a series
of shortwaves to move through the region starting as early as
saturday afternoon with most impacts on saturday night into
sunday. these shortwaves will support shower and storm chances
across the area. there is a non-zero chance for strong to severe
storms on sunday with a more organized surface low moving
through the eastern great lakes region. temperatures ahead of
the low and sunday convection could get into the mid 80s.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
fog will slowly burn off through mid morning, but cigs are
trending more pessimistic in much of the region through the
afternoon, so expanded the duration of mvfr cigs, except for
keri which should be mainly vfr. scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and evening. all
sites have the potential to see some brief rain, but maintained
the mentions at ktol, kfdy, kmfd, kcle, kcak, and kyng where
chances are highest. keri may see a shower, but confidence was
too low for the taf. moving into tonight, vfr should dominate
until fog and mist start to form once again. kept visibilities
in the mvfr to ifr range, but it is possible these will be
lowered as confidence increases.

light and variable winds early this morning will become sw at
5-10 knots this afternoon and evening before turning light again
tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms thursday
into thursday night. non- vfr possible again in showers and
thunderstorms saturday afternoon into sunday.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through thursday as
the active frontal boundary slowly shifts south and high
pressure attempts to briefly build into the great lakes. sw
winds of 5-10 knots today will become light and variable tonight
and thursday before turning ne and increasing to 5-15 knots by
friday and friday night as the high becomes better established.
winds will back to e to se saturday and eventually turn s to sw
by sunday as a warm front lifts north, with speeds increasing to
10-20 knots sunday.`

scattered thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and
waves this evening and again this weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
958
fxus63 kiwx 121040
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt wed aug 12 2026

.key messages...

- several more rounds of storms are expected today through late
thursday.

- some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds and
heavy rain possible. the best chances today are generally
south of us-30.

- a flood watch remains in effect for areas along and south of
us-30 today.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 am edt wed aug 12 2026

another challenging and very low confidence convection forecast for
today. latest surface obs and mesoanalysis show frontal boundary
draped right along our southern cwa border. north of this front some
patchy fog has developed but visibilities are highly variable and
guidance suggests that will continue through the morning as cloud
cover increases so no plans for a dense fog advisory at this time.
this front will slowly lift ne through the early morning as the
nocturnal llj ramps up. already seeing some convection fire along
this front but luckily it remains elevated with virtually no surface-
based instability in our area. will still have to keep an eye on
this activity through the early morning though with some low-end
potential for hail and heavy rain in a region already water-logged.
hi-res cam`s are struggling immensely to capture this activity and
subsequently predict evolution through the early morning. forecast
confidence is low but based on overall mesoscale setup expect this
activity to continue and slowly expand ne through the early morning
as the llj intensifies and pushes very high theta-e air back into
our cwa (850mb dewpoints in excess of 16c).

there could be a brief lull during the late morning but attention
this turns to the potential for another mcs associated with
convection currently over sd. here again confidence is not high but
hi-res guidance shows a little better agreement in an mcs tracking
through at least our southern half around midday. unfortunately all
of the ingredients will be similar to yesterday (very high
instability and deep-layer shear) and a damaging squall line is a
possibility. slight southward displacement of frontal boundary may
support a focus more toward central in as reflected in the latest
swody1. however, it should be noted that several hi-res members
track this mcs further north with a track, timing, and intensity
eerily similar to yesterday. straight-line winds would again be the
main concern but hail and an embedded tornado can`t be ruled out.

the other issue will be heavy rain. placement of the front and
convection predicted by several guidance members unfortunately
suggest the same area hit hard with heavy rain yesterday could be in
line to get another round of heavy rain today. earlier noted
convective uncertainties remain but felt confidence enough to extend
the flood watch for our southern zones that received significant
rain yesterday. ran the flood watch until 03z to match up with
neighbors but if the midday convection plays out as expected it
could be canceled early.

with plethora of near-term challenges and uncertainties, did not
spend a lot of time on the later periods. unfortunately, this front
hangs around through at least fri morning with potential for several
more rounds of convection. the front finally does briefly surge
north late fri into sat which would bring some temporary relief
before the associated cold front arrives sunday. behind this front,
a more lasting period of dry weather is anticipated for early next
week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 640 am edt wed aug 12 2026

nocturnal llj and associated theta-e advection lighting up
numerous showers and storms around kfwa this morning. this
activity should wane shortly after 12z but may persist slightly
longer. ceiling forecast remains low confidence given highly
variable obs and guidance across the area but low-end mvfr is
still likely for a time this morning. increasing confidence in
mcs passage around 18z with return to vfr/tranquil conditions by
late afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through this evening for inz012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-116-203-216.
oh...flood watch through this evening for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
451
fxus63 kdtx 121342
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
942 am edt wed aug 12 2026

.key messages...

- a cluster of thunderstorms over the thumb will exit into ontario by
mid-day.

- low probability for severe weather today with conditional
thunderstorm chances across the area.

- mainly dry conditions develop thursday through most of saturday.

- renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms late saturday into
sunday.

&&

.update...

quick update this morning to add near 100% pops across the thumb as
a cluster of thunderstorms moves across the area. based on upstream
mrms qpe, rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" will be plausible by
late morning. progressive nature to the cluster (storm motion of
40-45 mph) will push activity into ontario in the next 2-3 hours.
clearing noted behind the line paired with mixing of fog/low stratus
due to diurnal heating lends to decreasing cloud cover through the
afternoon.

several of the 09z-12z hi-res cycles hint at another possible window
of thunderstorm activity this afternoon-evening. forcing is tied to a
weak low level wave forecast to track across lower michigan and
effectively clear out the persistent convergence axis overhead. there
will also be a low chance for development on the northern edge of the
mcs currently over northern illinois in similar fashion to yesterday.
that said, the mcs position is already south of yesterday`s system
in an otherwise similar thermodynamic environment favoring the
scenarios which keep it south of the state line altogether. limiting
factor again today is subsidence in the 850-600mb layer which has
largely prevented convective initiation in this pattern so far.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 636 am edt wed aug 12 2026

aviation...

extensive area of fog and low stratus encompassing much of southeast
michigan early this morning. observational and satellite trends lend
support for continued ifr to lifr conditions at 12z. daytime heating
will steadily lift this moisture through 14z, leading to widespread
vfr for the remainder of the daylight period. there is lower
probability for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the late
afternoon and evening hours. slightly greater potential exists at
mbs and potentially fnt, as a backdoor cold front drops through the
area. modest winds from the southwest to west today, then becoming
north-northeast with the frontal passage late this evening.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorm activity is anticipated during
the taf forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less this morning.

prev discussion...
issued at 359 am edt wed aug 12 2026

discussion...

southeast michigan remains positioned along the active periphery of
a broad ridge currently centered over the southern plains. modest
northwest flow aloft lingers as several shortwave perturbations work
through the mean flow later today. the resident airmass remains
moist and conditionally unstable, characterized by surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s while a stalled frontal boundary lingers over lower
michigan. with dewpoint depressions near zero and little to know
gradient flow, areas of locally dense fog should continue for
several more hours early this morning. opted for a last minute dense
fog advisory along/south of i-69.

forecast confidence remains low regarding convective evolution over
the next 12 hours, in line with the last few days. latest cam
solutions imply preference toward a persistence forecast approach,
focusing on areas south of i-94 as a high plains mcs should survive
into the ohio valley. this runs contrary to spc`s marginal risk
highlighting locations north of i-94. however, scattered activity
cannot be ruled out for the northern portion of the cwa once the
aforementioned front drifts southward as a weak cold front. the
forcing along the frontal slope could trigger some attendant pop-up
showers/thunderstorms within an area of stronger shear, steeper mid-
level lapse rates, and higher instability. a water-loaded core or
overachieving updraft may suffice for a borderline severe wind gust
or hailstone. ai/ml models differ significantly, emphasizing the
uncertainty between both areas of focus. coverage should wane late
this evening or early tonight.

the existing synoptic ridge axis begins to roll eastward thursday,
but will be reinforced by amplification over western conus. mainly
dry conditions are forecast for thursday with high pressure building
in, albeit the ohio border area could still be susceptible to
glancing convection from the perpetual mcs train tracks rolling
through indiana and ohio. low predictability exists to close out the
week and over much of the weekend as flow weakens aloft and the
longwave ridge gets flattened by a canadian wave. the best chance
for another moisture/warm advection surge arrives late saturday into
early sunday as the canadian trough tracks into ontario with a cold
front extending into the great lakes. potential exists for organized
convection with the frontal passage. a wind shift from south to
northwest and a drop in temperatures and dewpoints to follow by
early next week.

marine...

weak wind fields will remain in place through thursday as a frontal
boundary hangs around the great lakes region before dropping south
thursday night. periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms will
persist through that timeframe. any strong thunderstorms will have
the potential to produce hail and winds in excess of 35 knots. with
the lighter winds, there are some weak signals for patchy dense fog
over lake huron at times, through confidence remains low.

a large area of high pressure builds into northern ontario thursday
night, allowing north-northeast winds to increase on friday. winds
are expected to reach at least 20 knots over southern lake huron,
which may allow waves to approach 4 feet over the southern basin.
the ridge extending from the high slides through friday evening,
supporting lighter winds into saturday morning. southerly winds will
then peak out around 20 knots ahead of a cold front saturday night,
with winds shifting to west on sunday behind the front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......mv
aviation.....mr
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
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