Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
733
fxus61 kcle 220745
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
345 am edt tue sep 22 2026

.what has changed...
increased the coverage of patchy drizzle and light showers for
today. raised chances of precipitation for central and northwest
ohio on wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) occasional showers will continue at times through wednesday with
below normal temperatures.

2) dry conditions will return to end the week with cool overnight
low temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure north of
the great lakes this morning while an inverted surface trough
extends from the ohio valley to northeast ohio. only a few light
showers are coming off the western basin of lake erie in a
region of favorable low level convergence that are shallow and mainly
visible on the dtw terminal radar. otherwise, there is a lack
of deep moisture overhead this morning but veering flow in the
moist low levels may support patchy drizzle, especially for
areas from akron to youngstown. later this afternoon the surface
trough retrogrades westward and moisture increases at 700mb
across ne ohio. several models suggest scattered light showers
will return across northeast ohio where lift continues along
the 850mb front. high temperatures will be similar to monday in
the low to mid 60s. in addition northeast winds will be breezy
downwind of lake erie along the lakeshore and in northwest ohio
with gusts to around 30 mph.

tonight will start off relatively quiet before the upper level
trough seen over iowa this morning deepens across the ohio valley.
scattered showers will expand after midnight as the trough
closes off across southern indiana. good coverage of showers are
expected initially along the i-77 corridor then drifting
westward through the day. there will also be a slight chance of
thunderstorms with elevated instability as the cold pool aloft
moves overhead. showers are expected to diminish quickly through
the evening.

key message 2...
high pressure over canada will expand south of the great lakes
on thursday as the upper level trough deepens along the east
coast. clouds will scatter out thursday with lots of sun over
the weekend. the forecast is dry through next monday with
temperatures gradually warming back towards normal. overnight
lows will be cool, generally in the low to mid 40s on thursday
night and friday night, then upper 40s(inland) to near
50(lakeshore) for the weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
a similar pattern as observed on monday is expected to persist
into tuesday as scattered light rain showers remain possible for
much of the day. in addition, many terminals are already non-vfr
this morning with low ceilings being the primary driver of these
conditions. there is isolated areas of 4sm or less with mist
being reported, but given the breezy conditions not expected
much in terms of fog. there remains quite a bit of uncertainty
in the aviation forecast given the expected scattered nature of
showers and uncertainty with how far north low ceilings will
push. have opted to handle much of the precipitation chances
with tempo/prob30. overall, aviation conditions across the area
today will likely bounce around flight categories. the only
exception is keri which should remain vfr.

northeast winds of 10-15 knots this morning will become gusty
in the 20-25 knot range by this afternoon. the strongest gusts
will occur nearest the lakeshore and along the i75 corridor.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds of 20-30 knots continue on lake erie today and small
craft advisories and a beach hazard statement for a high swim risk
remain in effect. waves of 5 to 9 feet are forecast with peak
waves across the central basin. given the strong convergence
over the western basin, there is also a low end threat of
waterspouts. winds become more easterly tonight and gradually
start to decrease on the east end of the lake. the small craft
advisory will end for the pennsylvania waters at 11 pm while
remaining in effect through 10 pm wednesday for the ohio
waters. we will need to monitor wave heights on wednesday and
may be able to cancel the small craft advisory a little early
for areas east of cleveland.

northeast winds of 10-20 knots expected on thursday ahead of high
pressure building south across the great lakes. conditions will be
choppy and may approach small craft and beach hazards criteria
for a brief window on thursday evening. the high will be more
directly overhead as the weekend progresses with improving
marine conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for ohz003-
007-009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez142>148.
small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...04
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
962
fxus63 kiwx 221006
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
606 am edt tue sep 22 2026

.key messages...

- extended stretch of seasonably cool conditions will persist
through the weekend.

- a few pockets of light rain showers possible today into
wednesday, best chances (20-30%) over northeast in and
northwest oh.

- dry thursday through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 am edt tue sep 22 2026

a broad ~1030 mb sfc high anchored over ontario, the northern great
lakes and quebec will continue to provide a feed of cool
easterly flow through the remainder of the week. clouds and
pockets of lighter rain showers will also remain in the forecast
through wednesday as deeper moisture lingers in the lowest 10
kft, and an upper level vort over iowa meanders east into the
lower great lakes. best chances for measurable light rain
(20-30%) will be this afternoon into wednesday along and east
of the interstate 69 corridor where slightly better moisture
profiles will linger.

the second half of the week into the upcoming weekend then features
more in the way of sunshine and gradual air mass modification as the
upper vort exits off to the east, eventually phasing into a larger
low pressure system just off the mid atlantic coast. this blocking
pattern will favor ridging/subsidence over the local area.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 606 am edt tue sep 22 2026

somewhat breezy east-northeast low level flow will linger on the
southern fringes of high pressure through the period, with gusts
up to near 20 knots common mid morning into this afternoon.
slightly drier conditions at ksbn should ensure vfr through much
of the period, while mvfr cigs likely linger at kfwa closer to
an inverted trough. this feature in tandem with an incoming vort
max may allow pockets of light rain to impact kfwa this
afternoon into tonight, though chances remain too low for a
mention at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through late tonight for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
302
fxus63 kdtx 220955
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
555 am edt tue sep 22 2026

.key messages...

- extended stretch of seasonably cool conditions will exist thru the
mid-week period.

- aside from a low chance of rain tonight and wednesday mainly south
of i-94, dry conditions are expected through next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure dominates the northern great lakes while a stalled
frontal zone remains in place across the ohio valley. the resident
pressure gradient maintains northeast wind at 10-15 kt today with
gusts again reaching the 20-25 kt range. latest observations show
mvfr stratus streaming from western lake erie across much of nw oh.
as the cloud bearing wind veers easterly this morning, this stratus
is forecast to migrate northward toward metro detroit. this brings
likely mvfr ceilings to the southern taf sites with some uncertainty
whether the stratus will reach as far north as kptk. elsewhere,
prevailing vfr is favored. a weak upper low then migrates across the
southern great lakes late this evening into wednesday morning. this
allows additional widespread mvfr ceilings and a few light showers
to spread across western lake erie into the forecast area for early
wednesday.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not anticipated through the
forecast.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 318 am edt tue sep 22 2026

discussion...

mid-week conditions to remain governed generally by split mid level
flow, featuring a broad upper high anchored over ontario and a weak
closed low drifting from the midwest today to the eastern ohio
valley by thursday. at the surface, a strong 1028 mb anticyclone
centered to the north maintains strong control over region,
effectively maintaining a moderately firm low level east-northeast
low level gradient. with little evidence of meaningful thermal
advection, this ensures an extended stretch of below average
temperatures. a more noteworthy gradient in high temperature where
warmer conditions reside toward the north expected both today and
wednesday, owing to greater likelihood for higher cloud coverage to
exist with southward extent. this gradient likely more pronounced
wednesday, as the aforementioned passing upper low works to draw a
plume of higher moisture northward into southern sections tonight and
wednesday. narrow axis of weak mid level deformation and low level
convergence flanking the north side of this system will support a low
end chance for light shower production overnight into wednesday. a
very dry ambient profile will certainly fight the northward
advancement of measurable precipitation, leaving the highest
probability for rain to remain concentrated along/south of the i-94
corridor.

as the mid level trough translates eastward, upper heights climb
accordingly for the end of the week downstream of higher amplitude
upper ridging building over the plains. this will establish an
extended period of deep layer dry and stable conditions under strong
subsidence as ridging dominates throughout the column. no
precipitation is forecast through the upcoming weekend as upper
ridging maintains control. temperatures still edged slightly on the
cooler side of average thursday and friday, before a moderating
thermal profile under full insolation and increasing thicknesses
lift highs back into the lower 70s by this weekend. radiational
cooling under clear skies will keep overnight lows generally in the
mid to upper 40s. next meaningful chance of rain unlikely to come
until at least the middle of next week.

marine...

modest east-northeasterly gradient wind field persists over the
central great lakes through wednesday as an expansive 30.60 inhg
high pressure system builds into quebec. this sustains elevated
wave action for most of the waterways, therefore, a small craft
advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters. expect another
diurnal contribution to elevated gustiness, briefly exceeding 30
knots this afternoon. additionally, upper level energy intersecting
a stalled elevated frontal boundary could offer some sporadic light
shower chances over the far southern waterways (i.e. lake st. clair
and western erie) tonight. a weak low pressure system should emerge
over the northern portion of the ohio valley on wednesday, altering
the pressure and moisture fields. this could lead to slightly
broader coverage of showers for the south-central great lakes on
wednesday while wind speeds gradually start to decline for the
latter half of the week. an extension to the small craft advisories
may still be needed for a subset of the nearshores.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...mr
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.