Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
755 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

.what has changed...
qpf for tonight into monday has trended a bit lower with this
update, but otherwise the forecast is on track and no significant
changes were needed.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain is expected and thunderstorms are possible
tonight into monday. rain may be moderate at times.

2) dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected through
early to mid week with temperatures warming and rain chances
returning late week into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will move east across the ohio valley and far southern
reaches of the forecast area late tonight into monday. showers will
attempt to overspread the region late this afternoon into this
evening, although it will likely remain virga for several hours due
to dry lower levels. precipitation will likely become a bit
more scattered with periodic dry periods near or shortly after
12z/8 am monday morning, although some cams (including the 12z
hrrr) have dry air working into the region earlier than that.
rain could be moderate at times, however qpf has trended down
further. around an inch of rain is possible across portions of
northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania with locally higher
amounts possible, although locations south of u.s. route 30 may
only see up to 0.75 inches of rain at most. some nuisance
ponding cannot be ruled out in low-lying and poor drainage areas
that get over an inch of rain, but the flooding risk is
relatively low at this point.

elevated thunderstorms remain possible tonight into early monday,
although severe weather is not anticipated. showers and isolated
thunderstorms may perk up a bit during peak diurnal heating east of
i-71, although instability will likely largely be to the southeast
of the local area.

key message 2...
below normal temperatures are expected monday and in more zonal
flow tuesday and wednesday. highs will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s monday before rising into the mid to upper 70s by
wednesday. temps moderate late week into the weekend with highs
likely returning to the mid 80s in many spots by sunday. dry
weather will return to the region monday night through wednesday
with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances returning as a
series of disturbances move across the region wednesday night
through the weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
rain over indiana and illinois will continue to spread east
tonight with a low pressure system moving through the ohio
valley. the active portion of the system with thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall will remain south of the terminals tonight.
however, an area of stratiform rain has developed north of the
low and continues to expand in a deformation zone in northern
illinois and indiana. this rain will spread into the airspace
tonight, bringing mvfr and eventually ifr conditions to the
terminals. with the low pressure system, a dry slot is
developing and will encroach into the airspace late tonight into
monday and may allow for a reprieve of the most pessimistic
conditions, especially for kmfd, kcak, and kyng. rain will exit
by the end of the taf period for most with ceilings improving to
mvfr. winds through the period will start generally easterly and
shift around to the north with the low pressure system passage.

outlook...non-vfr continues into monday night with low
ceilings. non-vfr possible again in rain showers wednesday
night through thursday night.

&&

.marine...
low pressure will track out of the mississippi valley tonight
and across northern ohio on monday, departing to the east monday
evening and night. this low pressure is not extremely strong,
but the track will be favorable for elevated east to north
winds across lake erie. winds will quickly shift east this
evening and increase to 15-25kt across the western and central
basins overnight tonight, peak at 20-25kt across much of the
lake monday morning and afternoon while gradually shifting more
northeast, then decrease from west to east late monday into
monday night while shifting northerly. waves will peak at 4 to
7 feet across the central basin on monday. have made some minor
adjustments to the timing of the small craft advisory and beach
hazards statement, and expanded the headlines to include
ashtabula county and erie county pa. generally tranquil marine
conditions are on tap tuesday and wednesday with high pressure.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 4 am edt monday through monday
afternoon for ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement from 4 am edt monday through monday
evening for ohz009>011.
beach hazards statement from monday morning through monday
evening for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from monday morning through monday
evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm edt monday for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt monday for
lez144>146.
small craft advisory from 8 am to 10 pm edt monday for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
144 am edt mon jun 22 2026

.key messages...

- steady rain will exit the area later this morning with just a
low chance for isolated showers later today.

- large waves and dangerous currents are expected on southern
lake michigan beaches today. those visiting the beach are
advised to stay out of the water and away from piers.

- another round of rain is expected late wed into thu and a few
thunderstorms are possible. severe weather is not expected at
this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 am edt mon jun 22 2026

1005mb surface low continues to move through central in and will
shift into oh later this morning. a fairly complicated mid/upper
level pattern with one remnant vort max rippling though our cwa
while a more prominent wave crosses the tn valley and becomes the
focus for renewed convection well to our south later today. very
impressive (esp by june standards) deformation/fgen around 850mb on
the north side of this surface low capitalizing on some marginal
elevated instability and resulting in a band of moderate rain
roughly along/just north of the toll road currently where an
advisory was issued. this activity will weaken through the early
morning though with focus shifting to lower portions of the front in
our central/south through the early morning before low exits
entirely around 12z. some pockets of 2-3+" remain possible even in
our central/south through the early morning but overall rainfall
rates haven`t been excessive and should only result in isolated
areas of minor/nuisance flooding through the early morning. the bulk
of this rain should exit shortly after 12z. there could be a few
isolated showers through the afternoon as that remnant vort max
passes overhead but coverage and amounts will be very limited.

dry/quiet weather persists from tonight through early wed. cool
northerly flow results in highs only mid/upper 70s on tue despite
nearly full june sun. next midlevel wave digs into the great lakes
from the canadian prairies late wed and sends a weak cold front
through the region. a closed midlevel low is actually expected to
form over the northern great lakes and this front will take well
into thu before fully clearing our area. theta-e return and
associated instability is limited for area, especially given current
expectations for a primarily nocturnal frontal passage. will keep an
eye on the potential for a few strong storms both wed evening and
thu afternoon but for now the severe risk appears low. this front is
then slated to stall somewhere south of our area thu night-early
sat. the exact location still shows some variability in latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance but trend is for just enough of
a southward push to keep best precip chances south of our cwa. the
front will eventually surge back north as a warm front this weekend
as a very high amplitude ridge develops over the great lakes for
early next week. details remain hazy this far out but general
pattern recognition would suggest a few storms with the warm front
but then transitioning to a hot and dry pattern early next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 144 am edt mon jun 22 2026

a compact but fairly strong upper level short wave will continue to
track across the western/southern great lakes this morning. the
eastward progression of this feature has resulted in tightening of a
low/mid level baroclinic zone across northern indiana which has been
conducive for bands of heavier rainfall affecting ksbn area. the
strongest low/mid level fgen forcing in this setup will continue to
shift east of ksbn through the remainder of the night which should
take heavier rainfall rates east of the terminal. a mid level dry
slot shifting east east across west central in should tend to make
showers more scattered after 09z at kfwa. deformation forcing on
backside of this system and slow retreat of this low/mid level
frontal boundary will prolong better rain chances at kfwa through
the early morning hours. not much change to previous forecast in
transition to ifr conditions early this morning, with improvement
from nw to se as the low level baroclinic zone and dry air advection
shift southeast across northern indiana through the day. ifr
conditions are expected to be more prolonged at kfwa (through late
morning or possibly midday). gusty east winds to begin the period
will back to the north today as the slow moving sfc reflection of
this system tracks into south central ohio by early this
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from 7 am cdt this morning through
late tonight for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from this afternoon through late
tonight for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
tuesday for lmz043.
small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 5 am edt
tuesday for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1156 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers increase coverage tonight, especially south of detroit
where rainfall totals range from 1.0 to 1.25 inch. lesser amounts
to the north.

- showers linger monday morning then dry weather follows in the
afternoon and evening.

- cooler than normal temperatures continue through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

deeper plume of moisture evident north of a low pressure system
tracking across the ohio valley will expand across southeast
michigan thru the early-mid morning hours. this will translate into
widespread rainfall, with an accompanying decline in ceiling height
with time. upstream observational trends paired with recent model
guidance continue to support an eventual decline in ifr at ptk and
the detroit corridor late tonight. mvfr conditions most likely at
fnt, while mbs hovers at the fringe of mvfr/low vfr for a brief time
near daybreak. some reduction of visibility into the 2 to 4 mile
range will also be possible. little evidence of thunderstorms
activity thus far, suggesting elevated instability lacks to support
a greater possibility and will refrain from any mention. prevailing
winds emerging from the east/northeast overnight, then turning
modestly gusty on monday. gradual improvement in conditions as rain
tapers off by late morning and daytime mixing ensues. this will
bring a progressive transition from mvfr back into vfr with a
lingering coverage of high based cu for the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms potential remains very low for
late tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and most of monday.

* very low for thunderstorms late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 328 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

discussion...

the hybrid baroclinic cyclone and mesoscale convective system is
currently tracking out of missouri and into illinois early this
afternoon. there has been a strong and very consistent model
consensus that supports a split in the forcing with deep boundary
rooted convection tracking to the southeast across far southern
indiana into portions of kentucky, while seasonably strong 850mb
and 700mb frontogenesis lifts northeastward towards the far western
lake erie basin. confidence is high the main synoptic scale lift and
frontogenesis will favor this northern route as it is driven by
strengthening and very rapidly organizing right entrance region jet
dynamics. the low confidence portion for tonight remains how high up
or what level the frontogenesis will activate. the current nam nest
suggests the center line of the 850mb fgen axis will set up to the
south of the michigan ohio stateline, whereas the 700mb fgen axis
tracks near lenawee and monroe counties while eclipsing wayne
county. consensus of models suggests qpf amounts of 1.00 to 1.33 of
inch will be likely with some peak amounts of 2.00 inch in isolated
locations mainly across south central to southwest lower michigan.
was really agonizing over the decision to issue a flood watch,
however a number of factors argue against it. the factors include:
dry antecedent soil conditions, not expecting to reach 6 hour qpf
amounts exceeding flash flood guidance of 2.25 inches, qpf axis
forecasted south of metro detroit, narrow qpf axis at a county wide
or less, and no connection to true surface based instability
reservoir.

lead deformation/warm advection light rainfall chances begin after
22z across the southern cwa, then increasing significantly after 01-
2z this evening. early activity looks to have a more stratiform look
based on hires depictions. subset of model guidance points to a wave
of low pressure causing a tighter cyclonic circulation to lift
northeastward at monroe county between 8-12z. it is with this
compact convergence forcing that will bring the highest rainfall
rates especially if there is more localized deformation response
along the northern flank. survey of model data suggests a top end of
rainfall rates could be up to 0.50" per hour. breadth of upper level
jet forcing is expected to allow precipitation to expand over much of
the area through the m 46 corridor.

last of shearing deformation is expected to push east of southeast
michigan by/after 18z monday. guidance continues to suggest some
brief potential for a light shower over eastern sections of the
forecast area between 20-23z. difficult to include a pop later in
the day with only a brief opportunity to achieve some reasonable
convective depth with strong subsidence down to 7.0 kft agl. spotty
at best. winds should be come well mixed in the dry advection,
holding northeasterly to northerly at 15 to 25 mph into the early
evening. winds are then expected to lie down quickly after 00-01z.

surface ridge axis will build across southeast michigan tuesday
through midday wednesday. highs are expected to be in the upper 70s
(2 to 5 degrees below normal) with modest surface dewpoints in the
middle 50s.

longwave trough and upper level jet axis settles into the central
great lakes by late wednesday. models are suggesting a very broad
cyclonic circulation which limits predictability because of timing
in internal absolute vorticity maxima. at this vantage point,
interesting to look at the eps dataset which has mean values
relatively close to the 75th percentile. potential exists for a
mainly dry stretch of weather next weekend near normal summerlike
weather.

marine...

a compact low pressure system will travel east across the ohio
valley tonight into tomorrow morning. this will elevate east to
southeast flow across lake erie, bringing wind gust potential around
25 knots along with increasing wave heights. a small craft advisory
remains in place. some isolated wind gusts 20 to 25 knots will be
possible across lake st. clair overnight, with lower magnitude wind
speeds across lake huron and the saginaw bay. this system will also
bring widespread rain, heavy at times, across the southern great
lakes. wind direction backs north to northwest in the wake of the
low through the early week period as high pressure builds in.
lighter winds are expected tuesday and wednesday.

hydrology...

compact low pressure system will bring widespread rain to southeast
michigan this evening and tonight. total rainfall amounts of 1.00 to
1.25 inch appear likely for far southern sections of cwa with the
potential for isolated amounts of up to 2.00 inches. peak of the
rainfall is expected between 3am to 8am. with no expectation for
rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance, flooding impacts are
expected to be limited to ponding of water on roadways and flooding
of poor drainage areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 4 am to 5 pm edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......cb
hydrology....cb

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.