Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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002
fxus61 kcle 160711
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
311 am edt fri oct 16 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes this forecast package.

&&

.key messages...
1) a cold front will bring rain and gusty winds across the area
today into saturday.

2) colder air will arrive behind the front tonight through
saturday. frost/freeze headlines are likely saturday night into
sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar imagery and surface observations reveal pre-
frontal activity exiting east of the area early this morning,
while more widespread rain approaches from the west associated
with a cold front. given the unfavorable timing of the front
this morning, the threat for any stronger showers or storms
across our area appears low. a reinforcing cold front/secondary
trough will arrive from the northwest later this afternoon and
evening, bringing another round of rain and colder air across
the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling as low
as -6 to -7 degrees c by saturday morning. a period of lake
effect rain is likely to develop downwind of lakes huron and
erie, especially later tonight into saturday morning between the
i-71/i-77 corridors.

winds will remain elevated for much of the day in the 25 to 30
mph range, though will be most gusty (up to 40 mph) with the
frontal passage this morning, and with the secondary trough
later this afternoon and evening.

key message 2...
high pressure will gradually build from the west on saturday,
setting the stage for a prolonged period of generally quiet
weather through the upcoming week. the cold air mass in place
with the building high should result in efficient radiative
cooling, especially saturday night into sunday morning where
temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s or even upper
20s in some spots. at the minimum, a widespread frost is
expected across much of the area and headlines will be needed.
frost conditions may return again sunday night into monday as
high pressure continues to influence the weather, though lows
may be slightly more moderated in the mid to upper 30s with
increasing warm air advection.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
it will be an unsettled taf period with showers and low ceilings
at times. a cold front will cross from west to east between
10-13z this morning. ahead of the front there are some widely
scattered, mainly light showers, with ceilings ranging widely
from mostly mvfr/vfr to some ifr/lifr at eastern locations such
as cak/yng. a broken line of gusty showers may develop along
the front itself, especially in the cle/eri/cak/yng vicinity.
behind the front ceilings should all settle into an mvfr range
(perhaps brief ifr right behind the front at some sites), with a
more widespread batch of light rain showers expected to fill in
13-17z and continue through the afternoon. a secondary front is
expected to drop south-southeast across the area between 20-0z
this evening. some more moderate showers can accompany this
secondary front, followed by a brief lull in rain at most sites
as mvfr ceilings persist into tonight. north-northwest winds
aligning over lake erie will allow light to moderate lake
effect rain showers to develop later this evening and continue
into the overnight, especially in the vicinity of cle.

winds are initially south-southwest at 7-15kt with some gusts to
around 25kt. have low-level wind shear included at all sites
initially with a 40-50kt low-level jet overhead and marginal to
no mixing. winds shift west at 10-15kt with 25-30kt gusts with
the first front, then more northerly this evening and tonight
behind the secondary front. winds will remain 10-15kt tonight,
but will be stronger (15-20kt with 30kt gusts) closer to lake
erie, especially impacting cle and eri.

outlook...occasional non-vfr expected to continue in periods of
rain showers and lower ceilings through friday night. winds may
gust over 30kt at times through early saturday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will arrive across lake erie this
morning as a cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of 25
to 30 knots with periodic gale force gusts likely behind a
secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. conditions
will improve through saturday morning as north winds gradually
subside to 15 to 25 knots becoming west to southwest, 10 to 15
knots, by saturday night into sunday. generally light winds 10
knots or less are expected sunday through mid-next week as high
pressure influences much of the weather pattern.

water levels may briefly near the critical mark of 5 inches
above low water datum across the western basin early this
morning, though levels are expected to quickly rise later this
morning as winds shift more to the west to northwest behind the
cold front.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt saturday for lez142-143-
149.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt saturday for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...sullivan
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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654
fxus63 kiwx 160706
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
306 am edt fri oct 16 2026

.key messages...

- turning much cooler and windy for today with lake effect rain
showers expected. the strongest wind gusts are expected
downwind of lake michigan across berrien and la porte counties
where gusts to 45 mph are likely friday afternoon and
evening. a wind advisory has been hoisted as a result.

- chances for frost are best on saturday night, however some
frost cannot be ruled out tonight.

- after below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures
will warm back above normal early next week. additionally, dry
weather looks to persist through much of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 257 am edt fri oct 16 2026

as a mid level trough digs across the central us, an upper low gets
shoved northeastward pushing a surface low into southeast
canada/northeast us. at the same time, a 1040 mb surface high slides
southeastward into the central conus. the presence of this strong
surface high often indicates the arrival of a cooler airmass and
that is the case this time. given our departure of above normal
temperatures and the arrival of this cool airmass, we`ll have some
hazards to contend with today and this weekend. first, yesterday`s
cold front shifts eastward and the vigorous vort max associated with
the mid level trough dives through lk mi late this afternoon into
this evening. given the warm lake and the 850 mb temps dipping to
around or below 0c, lake enhancement is expected to cause rain.
a surface trough is expected to swing through the southeast
area of lk mi around 18z with ample low level moisture, low
level wind convergence, and building lake enhanced instability.
given the movement of this trough and swiveling trajectories
from northwest to north, the area with the best chance to see
"higher" qpf is southern berrien into laporte where 0.25 to 0.5"
is forecast, tapering off the farther away from the lake you
are. the heaviest of the rain appears to get into berrien county
midday (15 or 16z) and continues swiveling southward through
the afternoon and into the evening. the other hazard is wind
gusts, which look to get underway along lk mi- adjacent
locations around 19 or 20z before pulling away around 3z. given
the surface trough, there could be some isentropic downglide
enough to work an isolated 45 kt gust down to the surface.
otherwise, it appears that frequent gusts between 30 and 40 mph
will be possible during that time as low level lapse rates
become conducive. the strongest of the gusts are adjacent to the
lake, tapering off the farther away you get. this is why the
wind advisory was hoisted for lk mi- adjacent locales.

the mention of the cold air also brings to mind the chance for
frost. especially with overnight lows dropping into the 30s from
from tonight/sat am to sunday night/mon am and potentially
again tue am. the main issue with friday night/sat am is the
gradient which could keep winds strong enough to eliminate
formation of frost. a lesser possibility is lake clouds hang on,
but would probably lean towards subsidence on the eastern side
of the lake clouds removing them. clouds appear to already be
dissipating on the nam by around 6 to 9z for maybe all of our
counties (lowest confidence on laporte to white county line).
this would give areas along or about in-15 north of us-24 on
into mi the best chance to see frost tonight. surface high
pressure continues to poke into the area saturday morning with
the stronger gradient lurking to our north. so, cloud cover
appears less of factor. it`s often that as return flow begins to
occur that we get our best frost chances as winds slacken, but
the boundary layer is able to get back to what it was the
previous night or potentially colder. so, saturday night has the
best chance for frost. there is also the possibility of a
freeze primarily along and south of us-24 sun am with a couple
hours of temps right around there then.

surface high pressure then becomes stagnant across the eastern conus
as blocking builds across the atlantic. the nao/ao both drop
negative during this time. the upper jet also retreats back up into
canada. a slow moving trough moves into the western conus, but takes
its time arriving into the area potentially continuing to provide
dry weather into next weekend. temperatures trend warmer with highs
returning to the 70s during the next work week and lows warming
slowly through the 40s.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1222 am edt fri oct 16 2026

cold front moves through with showers and gusty westerly winds
early this morning. mainly mvfr ceilings anticipated, though
brief periods of ifr remain possible. ceilings likely hover in
mvfr daybreak through the early afternoon with westerly winds
gusting up to around 20 knots. a secondary trough drops through
this afternoon with increasing rain coverage, particularly at
ksbn where lake enhancement kicks in. winds become more
northerly and remain gusty then into this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm cdt this
evening for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...wind advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt this
evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 11 am this morning to 2 am edt saturday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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836
fxus63 kdtx 160743
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
343 am edt fri oct 16 2026

.key messages...

- breezy conditions (gusts 30-40 mph), periods of rain showers, and
decreasing temperatures through the day.

- frost/freeze conditions are likely saturday morning for portions
of se mi.

- dry with above normal temperatures next week.

&&

.discussion...

an cold front is in the process of clearing se mi and will bring
about breezy conditions, steadily falling temperatures, and periodic
rain showers for today. the departure of low pressure from michigan
into ontario and quebec will have cold air advection ramp up through
the day as low level flow backs from west to north-northwest. the
advection of cooler air will greatly dampen or nullify the typical
diurnal peak in temperatures this afternoon as they fall from the
50s-60s this morning into the 40s by the evening. this will be
reinforced from a secondary cold front that will progress across se
mi late this morning into the early afternoon hours. passage of this
secondary frontal boundary will further increase mixing depths,
producing breezy conditions with gusts ranging between 30-35 mph.
some isolated potential to 40 mph will be possible after the passage
of the secondary cold front, but the absence of appreciable stronger
wind speeds within the mixed layer lowers confidence for higher
frequency gusts to 40+ mph. the exception will be within the thumb
given reduced surface friction along the lake as flow backs to the
nnw.

retainment of appreciable low-level moisture wrapped in cyclonic
flow coupled with shallow instability within the mixed layer will
support drizzle and rain shower chances through the afternoon and
evening hours. coverage of rain showers will start to decrease in
the evening hours for most locations as flow backs to the north,
which cuts off the additive moisture advection derived from lake
michigan. consequently, coverage will likely increase around the
lake huron shoreline once wind direction orients more favorably off
of lake huron. the enhanced pocket of shallow instability coming off
the lake will supplement moisture advection onshore. notably
stronger lapse rates extending through 700mb and positive buoyancy
extending through the -10c isotherm could support more vigorous
convective shower development and/or isolated thunderstorms, capable
of producing small hail.

strong high pressure will rapidly build in from west to east
overnight which will scour and advect out low-level stratus as dry
air works in. clear skies coupled with the early day cold air
advection will bring chilly overnight lows. efficient radiational
cooling drop temperatures into the low to mid 30s, bringing high
potential for patchy to widespread frost. the coldest temperatures
will be found across the interior of se mi through the tri-cities
where temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are possible. below
normal temperatures hold tomorrow afternoon with highs capped in the
low to mid 50s.

high pressure then sets up and expands over the midwest and great
lakes next week which will bring an extended period of dry weather.
temperatures rebound back to above normal values in the mid to upper
60s, possibly low 70s, by the late week period. this will bring a
period of idyllic fall weather under mostly clear skies for a greater
portion of next week.

&&

.marine...

deepening low pressure tracks across central/southern lake huron
this morning before quickly departing east today. the system sends a
strong cold front southward across the region with wind shifting to
n/nnw in its wake. cold advection over the lakes brings increasing
instability through the day with lake effect showers and gusty
northerly flow ensuing. the strongest core of winds aloft arrives
late afternoon and this evening with gusts to gales up to 40 kt on
lake huron, especially across the southern basin where fetch is
maximized. a gale warning remains in effect for all of lake huron.
farther south to lakes st. clair and erie, brief gusts to 35 kt will
be possible late this evening but expectation is for most gusts to
hold near or below 30 kt given shorter fetch.

wind magnitude begins to subside after midnight and continues to
weaken through saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure extends
in from the midwest. the ridge then quickly shifts into the ohio
valley, pairing with a deep low over northern ontario to produce a
strong wsw pressure gradient over the local area late saturday into
sunday. sunday afternoon remains a target for potential gusts to
gales over saginaw bay and central lake huron. the high pressure
then gradually expands northward to bring more tranquil marine
conditions early next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1059 pm edt thu oct 15 2026

aviation...

surface low pressure is currently observed over the southern lake
michigan basin, with local wind direction still out of the southeast
ahead of the sfc warm front. ongoing shower activity is tied to the
elevated warm front sweeping through, while the surface warm front
arrives in the next couple of hours and shifts winds to the
southwest. this will also be accompanied by ceilings lowering to ifr
and possibly flirting with lifr briefly. the greatest cig/vsby
restrictions are expected with the passage of the low overnight,
which peels away around daybreak to support a gradual return to low
mvfr conditions friday morning. winds veer to the west by friday
morning with a second wind shift to the nnw occurring in the
afternoon as a post-frontal trough pivots through se michigan. cold
advection immediately behind this system affords a well-mixed
boundary layer to preclude wind shear concerns, but results in gusty
winds of 25 to 30 knots that persist tonight into friday. a
transition to vfr is then expected friday evening-overnight, but
will depend on the extent of lake moisture flux throughout the
daytime hours.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not expected during the taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the taf period.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt saturday for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......tf
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.