Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
994
fxus61 kcle 121952
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
352 pm edt fri jun 12 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) quiet weather will continue through saturday with warming
temperatures.

2) widespread showers and thunderstorms expected saturday night
into sunday, with an active pattern continuing through next
week that will bring multiple precipitation chances and variable
temperatures.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
broad mid/upper troughing over the northern tier of the conus
will continue to supply cooler conditions through tonight, and
as surface high pressure drifts across the ohio valley, the
clear skies and relatively light winds will allow for a
refreshingly cool night as lows dip into the upper 50s/low 60s.

the surface high will quickly shift into the mid atlantic region
saturday as the active mid/upper trough over the northern tier
sends another shortwave and associated cold front into the great
lakes. this will allow for southerly return flow, boosting highs
into the mid/upper 80s in most areas saturday, except low 80s
will persist in far ne ohio and nw pa. the good news is that dew
points will remain tolerable, so it will still be a fairly
pleasant day under lots of sunshine.

key message 2...
the aforementioned mid/upper shortwave will drop through the
central and southern great lakes saturday night and sunday
morning, with coupling of two 80-90+ knot h3 jet streaks
inducing a strengthening surface low near southern ontario
sunday morning that will lift through the eastern great lakes
through the day. this will drag a strong cold front through the
region by midday sunday. the jet coupling and associated strong
upper divergence will lead to unseasonably strong frontogenetic
forcing, so rain should be pretty widespread late saturday night
into much of sunday before drying out from west to east sunday
night. abundant cloud cover and rain combined with the early day
frontal passage should greatly limit any severe weather threat,
but pwats increasing to seasonably high values of 1.25 to 1.50
inches along with the forcing and weak instability could lead
to some moderate to heavy rain in embedded convection. this
will take care of the recently dry conditions for those who have
missed out on the convection of the past few days. the current,
projected track of the low and best forcing beneath the coupled
jet structure would place the heaviest swath of qpf near the
lakeshore, where amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are possible, with
lesser amounts of a few tenths to up to 0.50 inch farther south.
this will be fine tuned with later forecasts.

much cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake of
the front sunday night into tuesday as the mid/upper trough
deepens across the central and eastern conus and surface high
pressure takes control. this will support highs mainly in the
70s and lows in the 50s. however, that broad mid/upper longwave
trough will keep the pattern active as additional shortwaves
rounding its base send reinforcing cold fronts across the
region. a weak cold front tuesday night into wednesday could
bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but the more interesting
shortwave and associated cold front looks to be wednesday night
or thursday, when stronger jet support induces a deepening
surface low. this could bring stronger thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall depending on the frontal timing, degree of shear, and
how much instability can advect northward. temperatures mid to
late next week will be a bit variable due to the frontal
passages, but generally upper 70s to low 80s are expected.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with vfr to persist
through the taf period. only anticipating isolated pockets of
few to sct ceilings around ~4kft through sunset. otherwise,
mainly clear skies overnight, with high cirrus filling in by
saturday afternoon. winds are out of the west this afternoon,
10 to 15 knots with gusts generally around 20 to 22 knots. winds
will diminish to 5 knots or less overnight, increasing again
out of the southwest saturday afternoon, 10 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms on sunday.
non-vfr chances may return tuesday afternoon and evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, becoming more likely late
wednesday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
marine conditions will gradually improve this evening as west
winds shift towards the southwest and subside to less than 15
knots. winds will shift towards the northwest behind a cold
front late sunday into monday with waves nearing 3 feet.
although the small craft potential remains low for this time
frame, it is non-zero. a higher risk for more widespread
hazardous marine conditions will arrive by mid-week as a strong
low pressure system develops and moves east into the great lakes
region wednesday into thursday. will continue to monitor trends
for this system, though there is potential for west to
southwest winds to exceed 30 knots at times.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
865
fxus63 kiwx 122034
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
434 pm edt fri jun 12 2026

.key messages...

- drier and cooler weather is in place for today and the first
part of saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- a marginal risk for severe weather edges into areas west of
us-69 for saturday night. the main risk is damaging wind, but
hail and heavy rain are possible. the risk is expected to wane
farther east of i-69.

- the middle of next week looks cooler than normal and
unsettled with chances for showers and storms increasing
tuesday and through the remainder of the week.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt fri jun 12 2026

much drier airmass has moved into the area, surface dew points
about 20 degrees less with values in the mid-50s today and
mostly clear skies with a zonal flow aloft. also, a bit cooler
with highs topping out in the mid 70s today. this comfortable
weather will spill over into tomorrow albeit slightly warmer.
high temperatures for saturday will be in 80s with just a slight
increase in humidities, dew points in the 60s.

attention then turns to another cold front pushing into the
area from the west late saturday which will bring increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms into the area as it pushes
eastward through the area. at this time, spc does have our area
under a slight risk for severe weather mainly west of the i-69
corridor. the timing of the arrival of the cold front will be
late in the evening once again but there is some uncertainty on
the exact timing which looks to be from 9 pm to 11 pm edt.
forecasted environment has sb cape values above 1500 j/kg and
sr helicity around 100 m2/s2 but the limiting factor here will
be the available shear with values around 20-25 kts. pwats
around 1.5 inches will also be available. main threats would be
gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours with this event.


troughing then sets up over the great lakes region in the wake
of the frontal passage through most of next week. this will
keep temperatures slightly cooler than average with high
temperatures mainly in the 70s and also periods of showers and
thunderstorms beginning on tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 608 am edt fri jun 12 2026

drier and cooler airmass now in place and mainly vfr conditions
expected through this taf period outside of mvfr cigs around
3 kft after 00z through 12z sat. southwesterly winds with gusts
around 20 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
594
fxus63 kdtx 121935
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
335 pm edt fri jun 12 2026

.key messages...

- warm and dry during the day on saturday, then showers and
thunderstorms move in saturday night into early sunday.

- drier and cooler conditions early next week before another active
pattern commences midweek.

&&

.discussion...

post-frontal airmass characterized by surface dewpoints falling into
the 50s and a 10c reduction in 850 mb temperatures have led to more
seasonable conditions across southeast michigan. column winds
organize out of the west while geopotential heights rise aloft,
ensuring continued subsidence and dry weather. 12.12z kdtx raob
revealed a deep layer of dry air from 0.5-8.0 km agl, with a max
dewpoint depression of 46c near 4.5 km agl. broad 1016 mb surface
high pressure rolls eastward from the plains into the lower ohio
valley by this evening backing winds wsw. afternoon gusts of 25-30
mph drop off after the boundary-layer decouples by nightfall. clear
skies tonight with lower dewpoints allow for efficient longwave
cooling, with lows dropping into the 50s by saturday morning.

low cloud fraction to start and backing southwesterly gulf-modified
flow within the low levels will culminate in saturday being the
warmest day of the forecast period. 850 mb temperatures rebound into
the teens with ample insolation lifting 2 m temperatures into the
mid-upper 80s. a quasi-rex block pattern emerges over the eastern
half of conus with southern lower michigan residing near the
stronger kinematics within the unified jet axis. favorable mixing
profile leads to another day of diurnal gustiness, generally
southwesterly at 25-30 mph. an enhanced low-level jet response over
the thumb and tri-cities could favor gusts approaching 40 mph at
times before sunset.

a medium wavelength trough of pacific origin digs into the upper
midwest, phasing with an embedded shortwave revolving around the
ontario upper low. this leads to a packet of height falls moving
through the great lakes late saturday into sunday. as the composite
wave works through aloft, it forces a cold frontal passage overnight
into sunday morning. pre-frontal theta-e advection will be present
helping to destabilize the frontal slope with steepening mid-level
lapse rates resulting in mlcapes in excess of 1 kj/kg. however, 0-6
km bulk shear will be falling during the evening and overnight hours
as the front arrives, limiting the overall intensity of convection,
while instability weakens. at this time, a mix of gusty showers and
a few thunderstorms are most likely to progress through the region
following some pattern of linearity with low potential for
hazardous/severe wind.

the progression of overnight convection should slow, thus, lingering
decaying showers could remain over some eastern locations sunday
morning. once the front finishes clearing out, noticeable cooler air
backfills into the forecast area through the rest of the day. highs
top out in the 70s with dewpoints eventually retreating into the 40s
by the end of the day. dry, cool, and breezy weather persists monday
and into tuesday morning with a zonal flow configuration aloft. the
next chance for rainfall returns for the second half of tuesday with
the next speed max. a much stronger wave could impact lower michigan
mid-late week with strong geostrophic flow and upper level
divergence.

&&

.marine...

high pressure is building across the southern lakes today while the
next cold front starts moving toward western lake superior. this
will help keep a fairly tight pressure gradient in place across the
region today. winds will remain elevated from the southwest offering
a period of gusts to 25 to 30 knots for saginaw bay and the tip of
the thumb during the afternoon saturday so we`ll issue a small craft
advisory. the front then sweeps east by sunday morning. winds will
stay elevated around 20 knots, but out of the northwest sunday.

&&

.hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms move through from west to east saturday
night into sunday ahead of a cold front. total basin rainfall
amounts of quarter to a third of an inch expected. no widespread
flooding concerns exist, although heavy downpours with rainfall
rates up to an inch per hour may be possible. localized flooding of
low-lying or poor drainage areas possible.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 335 pm edt fri jun 12 2026

aviation...

increasing mixing depths allowing winds to gusts above 20 knots this
afternoon. upper level wave/cold pool tracking through northern
lower michigan could allowing for some passing mid clouds (5+ kft)
this evening and tonight, higher confidence over the northern taf
sites. southwest winds ramp up tomorrow ahead of a cold front, with
gusts of 25-30 knots expected in the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not expected.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt saturday for lhz421-
422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......drk
hydrology....kgk
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.