Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
157
fxus61 kcle 170612
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
212 am edt sun may 17 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms
possible tonight through sunday and again late tuesday into
wednesday.

2) warmer weather expected sunday into mid-week with near record
highs possible early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
it will remain unsettled across the region tonight through
sunday as a series of shortwaves will move overhead. ongoing
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to push east
across the forecast are through this evening giving way to a
brief period of dry weather tonight. hi- res models are having a
fairly difficult time with precipitation chances tomorrow as
another shortwave moves overhead. for now, stuck with slight
chance to chance pops in the forecast sunday afternoon and early
evening to account for any isolated showers/thunderstorms that
may develop along a warm front.

precipitation chances will return late tuesday through wednesday as
a strong cold front swings east. some prefrontal showers and storms
will be possible during the day on tuesday with more widespread
precipitation chances along the cold front. expect for temperatures
behind the cold front on wednesday and thursday to fall roughly 10-
15 degrees.

key message 2...
broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer
conditions to end the weekend and begin early next week. highs
warm into the upper 80s areawide on monday and mid 80s by
tuesday. temperatures through the first half of may have been
below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat
to feel noticeably warm. peak heat index values will range
between the upper 80s to lower 90s. take steps to reduce time in
the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
a little patchy fog with mvfr visibilities is possible at
mfd/cak/yng early in the period before cirrus thickens
overnight so expecting the fog to be brief. after that
expecting primarily vfr conditions through the period with the
exception being if a shower or thunderstorm impacts an airport. coverage
of any precipitation is expected to be low today and did not
include in any of the tafs. if probabilities of precipitation
increase may need to add to a terminal for an hour or two this
afternoon. otherwise, most sites will have a vfr sct-bkn cloud
deck of 3500-5000 feet between 17-21z. a warm front lifts north
tonight with clearing skies.

winds will be southwesterly at 5-10 knots overnight with western
terminals more likely to see some gusts of 18-20 knots between
17-21z. eri also seems likely to see a wind shift off the lake
at 280-290 degrees for the afternoon and include this lake
breeze. winds will drop below 10 knots again tonight and back
to southerly.

outlook...non-vfr possible in isolated showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. non-vfr likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late
tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
light southwest winds today will back to southeasterly at 10-15
knots tonight. southwesterly winds on monday increase to 10-20
knots on the western half of the lake. winds may ramp up just a
little more on tuesday ahead of a cold front and will need to
monitor the need for a small craft advisory. the offshore flow
will keep the higher waves over the open waters on tuesday with
winds decreasing as the flow shifts to northwesterly behind the
front on wednesday. conditions will be somewhat choppy with 2-4
foot waves wednesday night into thursday with northeasterly flow
ahead of high pressure building to the north.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 170459
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1259 am edt sun may 17 2026

.key messages...

- very warm through at least tuesday with highs near or above 80
and a muggier feel to the air.

- thunderstorm chances increase monday into tuesday. locally
heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts are possible, primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.update...
issued at 838 pm edt sat may 16 2026

warm and muggy air has settled into the area with dewpoints in
the 60s (even some mid to upper 60s where rainfall occurred
earlier today). convection well south of the area was weakening
with loss of daytime heating, with the primary focus well to the
west across portions of ia and northern mo. easterly movement
of the area has been quite slow as s to se llj keeps the
stronger cells rooted in the area general area. with time the
flow slowly shifts, but the strongest flow remains displaced
well west of us and noses somewhat to the ne into portions of wi
towards morning. while i suspect late tonight will be
completely dry. i will leave some token 15 pops in the far west
and north as the area of showers and storms possibly clip these
areas.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm edt sat may 16 2026

this morning`s showers and thunderstorms have shifted east and skies
have cleared nicely as of midday. a narrow area of cumulus is noted
along the us 30 corridor, perhaps an indicator of an outflow
boundary. upper-level support for any afternoon or evening
thunderstorms is generally non existent, with 500 mb and 850 mb
jets located well to our north and southwest, respectively. thus,
despite surface cape swelling toward 1,500 j/kg this afternoon, the
modest trigger of a lingering outflow boundary leaves much to
be desired for renewed storm chances. can`t completely rule out
an isolated storm before sunset (20-30% chance) but overall,
not impressed and have coordinated with spc to reduce the extent
of the marginal severe weather risk today.

tonight, organized convection is expected over mo, ia, and
eventually into il. like yesterday, how this evolves offers
uncertainty. however, using the same synoptic methodology as
yesterday, the overnight period appears to be primarily dry.
toward sunrise, 500mb flow improves over il and could be a
forcing mechanism to sustain any ongoing convection there. yet,
despite the synoptic forcing, instability values of only 500
j/kg will be a limiting factor while shear improves to 30
knots.

a warm front, currently running east/west through lafayette, lifts
north early sunday morning as well, but given the dearth of
instability, high resolution guidance does little in terms of any
convection along the front. thus, have maintained only a 20% chance
of showers and thunderstorms to blend with neighbors. sunday
appears primarily dry and warm.

monday and tuesday remain murky but feature favorable severe
weather ingredients. the primary question is whether or not
convection fires monday afternoon from a prefrontal trough that
lifts in. should this trough become the focus for severe storms,
damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard via steep
low- level lapse rates. afternoon storms would then squash the
overnight severe risk. the slow-moving cold front creeps through
our area tuesday serving as a continued focus for severe
storms. however, plenty of cloud debris is expected throughout
the day owing to any preceding convection. this will limit
instability values. heavy rain rates of at least 1" per hour
remain a concern early this week. overall, entering a period of
active weather that will require taking things one day at time
owing to mesoscale nuances.

cooler behind the front with highs some 20-degrees cooler; only in
the mid-60s wednesday and thursday. high pressure wednesday and
thursday becomes displaced over the eastern great lakes for next
weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1256 am edt sun may 17 2026

have maintained dry conditions and vfr ceilings for the 06z tafs
as confidence increases that sunday will remain dry. scattered
high clouds are moving through on the eastern fringes of ongoing
convection across missouri, iowa, and illinois. this convection
should bypass the area to northeast in the morning as it lifts
northward along a stalled boundary. sunday will be dry and
breezy. waa will cap winds somewhat but southerly winds are
still expected to gust as high as 18-22 kts during peak diurnal
heating.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 170247
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1047 pm edt sat may 16 2026

.key messages...

- increasing temperature trends this weekend into early next week.
high confidence for temperatures in the mid-upper 80s monday and
tuesday.

- multiple opportunities for thunderstorms into early next week.
greatest thunderstorm risk will be monday afternoon/evening with a
marginal to slight risk for severe weather in place for all of
southeast michigan.

&&

.aviation...

warm frontal boundary lifts through the region this morning
strengthening moisture transport into southern lower mi thickening
mid-cloud (5-10kft) and perhaps some scattered low cloud. areas
north of ptk still look to stand the best chance for scattered
showers/storms developing this afternoon-evening given the frontal
boundary still lingering nearby. that said, some model guidance
continues to suggest convection towards detroit by evening so have
maintained prob30 groups for all terminals.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast tonight through
sunday morning. there is a low chance for scattered thunderstorms by
sunday evening but better potential looks to be to the north.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms sunday evening.

* low for ceilings aob 5000ft through sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 408 pm edt sat may 16 2026

discussion...

quiet weather expected the rest of today and through most, if not
all, of the overnight as we fall in between mid level waves with a
brief period of zonal flow aloft. there is a very limited amount of
support for some isolated nocturnal showers to develop along a former
cold front stalling across southern lower mi. instability is weak
and elevated, lapse rates are poor, and moisture quality is poor
with pwats around 0.75 inch. warming low levels will also create a
cap which will add to challenges. this time of year though, with
this pattern, all it would take is some weak small scale impulse to
spark something.

warm advection ramps up sunday as the stalled front gets pushed back
north as a warm front tied to a developing low pressure system over
the plains. strong low level jet surging north along the mississippi
river tonight will force the front northward sunday afternoon with
the eastern tail of it lifting through se mi. there is a narrow axis
of vorticity aloft pivoting through the area as well but only a weak
axis of 700mb theta e over the region. warm advection will lead to
pretty deep cap from 850 to 750 mb with surface temps rising into
the low 80s. spc day 2 has expanded the region of marginal risk
across the northern half of the cwa to account for the warm front,
modest shear aloft around 30 knots, and skinny elevated instability
around 500-1000 j/kg. elevated hailers would be the primary threat
with wind a far second owning to the deep layer of capping the wind
would have to punch through. timing would be between 1 and 9 pm.
models are hinting at a shortwave or convective cluster riding east
along the front through mid mi after about 22z so something else to
watch for.

sunday night into monday looks to be quiet as we are solidly in the
warm sector with 850mb temps rising into the mid to upper teens c.
mondays high temps will be in the mid to upper 80s and depending on
cloud cover, some guidance has been leaning toward 90. this may be
hard to achieve though as models are also showing upstream
convection on the prefrontal trough pushing east through the day
which may bring some showers or thunderstorms to the area during the
afternoon. the cloud debris at a minimum should temper max t
potential. spc day 2 has se mi in moderate to slight risk of severe
storms for late monday and monday night. continued warm air
advection with a surge of theta e after 21z will increase cape
values to around 1500 j/kg with strong lapse rates in the mid levels
and in the bl with only a small cap around 800mb to contend with.

convective chances will continue on tuesday, as well as the heat, as
the cold front won`t pass through til tuesday night. spc day 4
continues the slight risk over the region. the passage of the cold
front and high pressure building into the region out of the northern
plains with very broad troughing over the great lakes will lead to
cooler conditions for the middle to end of the week with highs back
down hovering around 70.

marine...

breezy southwest flow is ongoing with drying conditions as a surface
trough exits into ontario. gusts briefly peak around 25 knots along
the lake huron shoreline this afternoon, but subside this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. a cold front then settles south
across the great lakes tonight, stalling over southern lake huron
sunday and flipping winds to the northwest for the majority of the
open waters. the stalled front will be the focus for additional
thunderstorm chances beginning sunday afternoon, some of which may
produce wind gusts in excess of 35 knots and hail to one inch. the
front then lifts back north as a warm front sunday night, pushing
thunderstorms into northern lake huron by monday morning. unsettled
conditions continue monday-tuesday as a warm and unstable airmass
takes hold, with thunderstorm chances existing both days. breezy
southerly flow is also expected early in the week, especially near
the shoreline where gusts may exceed 30 knots at times. small craft
advisories will likely be needed. a cold front then tracks through
the area mid-week, followed by high pressure.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...drk
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.