Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
128
fxus61 kcle 011057
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
657 am edt wed jul 1 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast and trends for this
cycle.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat and humidity increase slightly for today and thursday, and
linger through friday.

2) upper level ridge providing the heat will break down and retreat
back south, leaving the region in a more zonal flow pattern and
returning to convective chances beginning friday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper ridge now firmly anchored over the ohio valley and will
continue to see heat build into the region. dewpoints are in the 70s
and will largely stay there the next couple of days, or at the very
least the upper 60s. 850mb temperatures will push the mid 20s. with
another day of ground/surface drying and these slightly higher 850mb
temperatures, thinking is that upper 90s will be more prevalent
today and thursday as well. still have some breezier conditions,
especially out in the western zones, and overall, will keep max
temperatures across the cwa under 100f. last day of the extreme eat
looks to be friday, although there are signs pointing to the upper
level ridge possibly breaking down somewhat on friday. going with
mainly mid 90s for friday, but could see it more like lower 90s
depending on what the upper level ridge does. no changes to the
warnings and advisories that are already in place.

key message 2...
a bit cooler into the weekend in a more zonal flow aloft where
temperatures will be more in the upper 80s saturday into sunday.
but, as has been mentioned in previous forecasts, convective chances
likely to return to the region. elevated instability exists
currently, and will continue into the weekend. column rh is severely
lacking while in this upper level ridge, but expect moisture to
increase this weekend in the zonal flow aloft. surface based
instability would likely have to contend with a boundary layer cap,
not unexpected given the heat, so forcing mechanisms would have to
be above this cap. in the end, high end pops for the convective
chances friday through the weekend, and will have to evaluate severe
potential as friday nears.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are expected today and tonight. some diurnal
cumulus (4-5 kft) will develop this afternoon, mainly closer to
the lakeshore in ne oh and nw pa. winds will remain southwest
through the period to 10 kts with a couple spots having 20 kts
during the afternoon hours.

outlook...low risk for thunderstorms thursday evening. greater
potential for scattered storms friday through sunday, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

&&

.marine...
with high pressure to the south, pleasant marine conditions are
expected with southwest flow averaging 10 knots through the
period. there could be a lake breeze that develops east of
cleveland each afternoon, which would allow for minor shifts in
wind direction and brief 2 ft waves that would be short-lived.
shower and thunderstorm activity will return starting on
thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.climate...
very hot and humid weather is expected through friday. record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
525
fxus63 kiwx 011011
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
611 am edt wed jul 1 2026

.key messages...

- extreme heat warning remains in effect area-wide through
thursday evening. daily highs in the 90s and heat indices
between 103 to 110 degrees are expected.

- near record warm overnight lows in the mid 70s will offer little
to no relief from the heat at night.

- heat indices may exceed 100 degrees again on friday, but heat
indices will be dependent on extent of afternoon clouds and
any scattered showers and storms.

- highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for the 4th of july with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected (40-60%)

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt wed jul 1 2026

persistence forecast utilized for today with overall little movement
in mean position of mid/upper level ridging across the oh/tn
valleys. as was the case yesterday some light shallow fog is
trying to develop this morning given excessive sfc/near sfc dew
points. some patchy stratus is possible through daybreak, but
coverage is expected to be much more limited in comparison to
yesterday morning. otherwise today, broad weak synoptic scale
subsidence and a very warm 850-700 mb layer should suppress any
convective development, with greater potential of showers and
thunderstorms expected in vicinity of a plume of much higher
low level theta-e air from southern minnesota through northern
lower michigan. with good deal of insolation today and little
change in thermodynamics from yesterday, would expect another
afternoon of peak heat indices in the 103 to 110 degree range
and will be locally determined by extent of local mixing/dew
point trends. near term forecast soundings do show another
afternoon of potentially mixing up to levels that would support
some 20 mph afternoon gusts, but would expect these gusts to
quickly diminish toward 00z this evening. little relief from the
extreme heat is expected tonight with another night of mins in
the mid-upper 70s given the very high moisture content airmass
in place.

the mid/upper level ridge axis is expected to exhibit some slight
eastward progression tonight with the more favorable short wave
track remaining from the upper midwest into the northern great
lakes. convection and convective high cloud debris will likely
remain displaced northwest of the local area into tonight, with
another night of mainly clear skies.

the passage of these more pronounced mid level convectively enhanced
short waves just north of the local area could provide some slight
suppression to the mean ridging by thursday, with slightly cooler
low level thermals by this time. this would be a very modest
moderation if at all however, with low level thermal progs still
supporting heat indices at least into the 100 to 105 degree range
once again thursday afternoon. it is possible there could be just
enough ridge suppression by later thursday night that some remnants
of upstream convection or outflow forced convection could clip
the southern great lakes, but confidence in this scenario is
quite low at this time and will depend on exactly how upstream
mid level synoptic impulses are modified by upstream convection.

by friday, the 596 dm upper ridge should begin to move to the mid
atlantic region with greater potential of a more flattened upper
ridge across the southern great lakes. the extent of convective
influence on this suppression remains a low confidence item for this
forecast, which has a corresponding low confidence impact on high
temps for friday. if showers/storms remain of lesser coverage for
friday, it is certainly possible another day of heat indices
around 100 may be realized and may necessitate a temporal
extension of the extreme heat warning into friday eventually. in
addition to the potential of heat indices around 100, some
isolated severe potential may evolve during the afternoon
through early overnight hours as convective inhibition for sfc
based parcels will likely be largely eroded by this time. deep
layer shear will likely be more marginal however, and the exact
magnitude of shear profiles will be dependent on existence of
any small scale convectively enhanced short waves with locally
stronger shear profiles.

a high cape/marginal shear profile setup does look to be maintained
this holiday weekend into early next week with a potential of
several weak mid/upper level short waves progressing through the
dampened central conus ridge. strong/severe potential is difficult
to assess at this forecast distance given continued reliance on
convective enhancement to short waves for better shear profiles, but
have continued broadbrush low chance thunder pops through much of
the long term. hot and humid conditions will persist through next
week although likely not at advisory levels.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 610 am edt wed jul 1 2026

overall quiet aviation weather conditions expected this forecast
cycle. sfc dew points in the mid 70s this morning have been
conducive for some light fog this morning, but maintenance of
some southwesterly gradient has kept vsbys in the 6+ mile range.
cannot completely rule out brief mvfr vsbys through 11 or 12z,
but vfr conditions are expected through this period. in similar
fashion to yesterday, peak mixing this afternoon should yield
some southwest gusts to around 20 knots. these gusts should
diminish sharply after 23z as boundary layer decoupling
develops. focus for shower/thunderstorm activity will remain
north of the terminals into thursday am.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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031
fxus63 kdtx 010938
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
538 am edt wed jul 1 2026

.key messages...

- an extreme heat warning remains in effect through thursday, with high
temperatures reaching the mid 90s-to-upper 90s and heat indices at
or above 105 degrees each day.

- marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon north of i-69.

- friday will also be hot, with high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees,
but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to
develop in the afternoon.

- a good chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times
over the weekend, with temperatures gradually cooling down.

&&

.aviation...

strong influence of a large high pressure system centered over the
ohio valley will maintain a high degree of stability across the
region through tonight. this ensures widespread vfr conditions, with
a limited coverage of high based cumulus expected. potential exists
for convective development to occur across northern/central lower mi
this afternoon and evening, but with the current forecast favoring a
trajectory north of mbs. prevailing winds from the southwest,
turning modestly gusty during the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through wednesday
night.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 246 am edt wed jul 1 2026

discussion...

very hot and humid conditions will persist over the next couple of
days, but convection chances ramp up as we head into the weekend.

the upper level ridge center (597 dam at 500 mb) over kentucky will
hold nearly stationary or drift east into the mid-appalachians
through friday. however, the extension of the ridge axis into the
central great lakes folds over into the eastern great lakes today.
this allows for some modest heights falls over lower michigan.
particularly across northern lower michigan, there is heightened
concern for severe storms, where 0-6 km bulk shear values in excess
of 40 knots will reside. warm (12 c at 700 mb) and dry mid levels
over much or all of southeast michigan are expected to provide a
cap, but some activity could clip areas along/north of i-69 (see
arw/fv3). mlcapes in excess of 2000 j/kg support a marginal risk
with the southern edge of the stronger wind fields. damaging winds
being the main hazard.

yesterday`s high temperatures reached into the low to mid 90s,
despite considerable cloud cover for a good portion of the day. the
00z dtx sounding indicated an 850 mb temps of 21 c. today, the
southwest pressure gradient will be a bit better, allowing for
slightly better mixing and warmer 850 mb temp of 22 c. we are
expecting highs in the 94-98 degree range for most areas, as moist
low levels (surface dew pts in low to mid 70s) will make it
difficult to reach 100 degrees. none-the-less, should see heat
indices of 105+ degrees, and no changes are being made to the
extreme heat warning through thursday since the airmass remains
similar.

however, multiple shortwaves riding the northern edge of the ridge
will gradually erode the cap as the main moisture axis (pw values of
1.75-2 inches) sinks south. there is a slight concern for
convection to get going as early as thursday afternoon (marginal
risk of severe if storms do in fact develop), with a much higher
chance for likely activity friday afternoon. this makes heat
headline decisions for friday difficult, as temps should still
quickly reach and exceed 90 degrees with heat indices of 100+
degrees.

the very moist airmass holds into the first half of the weekend, and
there looks to be multiple shortwaves coming out of the rockies to
trigger showers and thunderstorms at times over the weekend. there
is concern for heavy rainfall with 700 mb dew pts of 2+ c, as wind
fields look to diminish on saturday, leading to slower storm
movement. however, confidenceremains low regarding the exact
location and amount of instability around.

marine...

a hot and humid air mass resides over the region today and through
the rest of the week. prevailing wind will be from the southwest at
10 to 15 kt with gusts generally capped around or below 20 kt due to
higher stability over the relatively cooler water. the heat dome
will maintain very low chances for precipitation for most of the
area, but northern and central lake huron will reside near the edge
of the cap which offers potential for multiple rounds of
thunderstorms today and tomorrow. severe thunderstorms will be
possible, capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and
large hail. the cap migrates farther south by late week which brings
higher chances for storms to the rest of the region by thursday and
friday.

climate...

daily records for the upcoming week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 96 (1931) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 98 (1933) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 99 (1964) 77 (2018)
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sf
marine.......tf
climate......sf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.