Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
392
fxus61 kcle 031741
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1241 pm est tue nov 3 2026

.what has changed...
rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing
a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.

2) an upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern
continuing into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as
a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure track east into the lower great lakes and ohio valley
region. moisture transport from the gulf will increase area
pwats on wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th
percentile for early november at regional sites. widespread
showers are expected to enter from the west wednesday morning
and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west
to east in the evening. can`t rule out a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms tomorrow as sbcape values may briefly increase to
a few hundred j/kg in the morning and early afternoon. severe
threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability
amount. overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50
inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts
of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of us-30.
additionally, a 40-50 llj will move overhead tomorrow and allow
for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 mph.

key message 2...
there will likely be a window of dry weather on thursday as the
trough lifts north before another trough sinks south thursday
night into friday. this secondary trough will lead to occasional
chances for showers downwind of lake erie through the weekend
and into early next week. cooler temperatures expected this
weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
areawide vfr will continue through the remainder of the day
today and overnight tonight. breezy southerly to southwesterly
winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots will continue this
afternoon before diminishing to 8-12 knots this evening. a cold
front will approach terminals from the west tomorrow morning
bringing areawide showers to the region. anticipate for ceilings
to reduce to mvfr with patchy ifr as the front arrives. a strong
llj will move overhead during the late morning and afternoon
hours which will allow for southerly winds to increase to 12-18
knots sustained with gusts 20-30 knots possible across taf
sites. llws may briefly be possible across western taf sites
given the 40-50 knot southerly/southwesterly llj, but opted to
leave out of the taf with this issuance.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across lake erie today
into tomorrow morning. a 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead
the lower great lakes during the day tomorrow which may
increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots wednesday afternoon and
evening. given the southerly component, the highest wave heights
of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the
higher wind speeds. winds shift southwesterly behind a cold
front wednesday night into thursday before diminishing to 10-15
knots by thursday evening. winds turn northwesterly in the wake
of a trough friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally
between 10 and 20 knots. conditions, particularly in the central
basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
173
fxus63 kiwx 031723
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
issued by national weather service grand rapids mi
1223 pm est tue nov 3 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and dry today with record-challenging warmth. southerly
wind gusts of 25 mph to perhaps 35 mph.

- rain arrives from west to east late tonight. breezy with
lingering showers through wednesday.

- not as warm to end the week with lake enhanced showers at
times.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 249 am est tue nov 3 2026

a well defined upper-level trough is lifting north-northeast through
kansas early this morning. closer to home, low stratus and patchy
drizzle continues to lift north through michigan in response to this
lifting cyclone. stout warm air advection has brought steadily
rising temperatures on this shift with an increasing number of 60-
degree readings (normal high today is only 55). that said, morning
temperatures will be a nice spring board for afternoon highs that
will challenge the day`s records: 76 degrees in 2003 and 1987 (2003
record was only at fort wayne). rather cloudy immediately upstream,
but clearing is noted across the ohio river. this could be enough
later today to truly challenge the record. cloud cover will also
dictate afternoon mixing of the low-level jet. forecast soundings
depict a narrow window after 1pm where guidance attempts to mix down
35 mph gusts. overall today, breezy, decreasing clouds (especially
along and east of the i-69 corridor) and dry.

rain slowly arrives from west to east tuesday night according to
available near-term models (rip href, nam et. al.). northwest ohio
could very well be dry until after daybreak wednesday as low
pressure becomes stacked beneath the parent upper-low, slowing the
cold front`s arrival. breezy conditions persist into wednesday
morning as the low-level jet remains amplified over northwest ohio.
a dry slot from this low slowly works its way east permitting some
afternoon dry hours. cooler air behind this system seeps in
wednesday night through thursday along with lake-enhanced showers.
highs in the 60s wednesday and thursday give way to highs in the 50s
friday through the weekend. this whole system exits later saturday
ending the lake-enhanced shower chance.

beyond the weekend, subtle northwest flow results in temperatures
fairly close to normal and opportunities for 20% pops at times as
weak disturbances ripple through the flow. subtle ridging is noted
over the southern and central us, which, if building into the
midwest could later induce a more zonal flow locally. however, the
core global models are teasing chilly canadian high pressure after
veteran`s day.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1222 pm est tue nov 3 2026

satellite shows earlier widespread stratus has cleared the
terminals with few to sct clouds expected through the evening in
the 3-6kft range. clouds increase in coverage overnight with the
approach of a cold front, with a few hours of llws favored ahead
of the front as winds near 2kft approach 45 knots. this front
will also bring rain showers after 09z continuing through the
end of the taf period. the combination of showers and increasing
low-level moisture will cause conditions to deteriorate to mvfr,
with cigs possibly falling below 2kft after 14z (best chance at
fwa). in addition, south to south-southeast winds will be
gusting to 25 knots throughout the forecast period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...thomas

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
667
fxus63 kdtx 031728
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1228 pm est tue nov 3 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy today with near record high temperatures and gusty
winds up to 30 mph.

- mild conditions continue wednesday with light rain likely.

&&

.aviation...

low pressure and connecting cold fronts stretch from northern
ontario to the gulf coast, roughly along the ms valley this
afternoon. an equally broad warm sector also extends from the se
states into the great lakes which has broken mid level vfr clouds
established across southern lower mi. recent satellite trends
indicate decreasing coverage of the mid cloud layer as it tracks ne,
replaced by a scattered daytime heating component.

s-sw wind gusting near 30 kts is also a result of maximum boundary
layer mixing through peak heating this afternoon. the gust component
lingers less frequently after sunset within a neutral boundary layer
thermal profile which then stabilizes toward midnight. there is some
llws indicated in model soundings but not quite to the intensity for
a mention in the forecast. the aviation weather highlight shifts to
the moisture axis and bands of showers moving in from the midwest
and also developing northward from the ohio valley late tonight and
wednesday morning. this brings a lengthy period of mixed mvfr/ifr
ceiling and mostly mvfr visibility until the cold front sweeps
through late wednesday.

for dtw... wind gusting near 30 kts this afternoon holds from the sw
direction while diminishing this evening. coverage of vfr ceiling
above 5000 ft is also on the decrease this afternoon setting up
scattered sky condition this evening. clouds quickly increase and
drop below 5000 ft again after midnight trending down to mvfr by
sunrise and then ifr during wednesday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 302 am est tue nov 3 2026

discussion...

a period of high magnitude warmth by early november standards set to
emerge over the next 24 hours. this development driven by increasing
depth of southerly flow within an increasing upper level height
field. this occurs in response to the establishment and gradual
northeast ejection of a deep closed low now over the central plains.
early day low cloud will give way to a mix of sun and clouds today
as the existing warm front surges north of the area and associated
warm air advection strengthens with time. a modestly mixed profile
will certainly support peak afternoon readings well into the 70s -
nearing record territory of mid 70s most locations. some gustiness
to the prevailing south flow expected, peaking in excess of 30 mph
at times. very mild conditions to prevail into tonight, as readings
struggle to dip much below 60 degrees - a solid 20 degrees above
average.

aforementioned closed mid level system forecast to slowly lift from
the central plains to near lake superior thru thursday. greater
northward moisture transport occurs within the belt of deeper
southerly flow immediately downstream and out ahead of the attendant
cold front, with the northern extent reaching southeast michigan by
early wednesday. while better moisture quality may tend to hold
across the ohio valley, this process will bring an increasing
probability for light shower development throughout the daylight
period. mild resident thermal profile still entrenched with shower
potential simply taking the edge off slightly relative to the peak
noted tuesday. highs upper 60s to near 70 degrees, with gusty
southerly conditions again reaching 30 mph at times. cold front
moves through wednesday night, offering another window for some
frontally forced pockets of showers to develop.

area settles within the dry slot for thursday as the system slowly
occludes to the northwest. modest cold air advection initially with
low level flow still out of the southwest, leaving temperatures
still above average during the day. a strong mid level wave of polar
origin will dig southward into the existing height fall center as
the entire trough axis pivots thru the area thursday night into
friday. an uptick in shower production plausible with a model signal
for some degree of fgen to emerge as the secondary frontal zone sags
southeast beneath the parent upper trough. notably cooler and
potentially unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend period, as
the existing upper trough exits while a trailing wave anchors the
next shot for meaningful rain toward the end of the weekend.

marine...

broad low pressure consolidates over the western great lakes tonight
before occluding on wednesday. this system directs moderate
southerly wind across the region today into tomorrow, though the
inbound warm air will result in increasing low-level stability over
the lakes that will limit the higher magnitude wind from mixing
down. gusts to 25 kt are expected over the open waters of lake
huron, while the nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt
given shorter fetch. similar conditions persist into wednesday with
a slight uptick in wind speed while wind direction backs to
southeast. this will likely necessitate a small craft advisory along
the thumb shoreline as wave heights build over 4 feet. a cold front
brings high coverage of light showers across the area late in the
day and into wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind
the front. the weakening low pressure slowly meanders across the
western great lakes on thursday before a stronger cold front tracks
southward across the region on friday. this brings moderate north
and northeast winds that shift northwest by saturday, as well as
additional light rainfall.

climate...

record high max temperatures for november 3rd:

detroit: 76 degrees (set in 2015)
flint: 79 degrees (set in 2015)
saginaw: 74 degrees (set in 2015)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...mr
marine.......tf
climate......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.