Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 252327
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
727 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

.what has changed...
there are no changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather will continue early this week
before a warming trend mid to late week and eventually chances
for rain next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the impressive stretch of dry weather and near normal
temperatures continues today and will last for the early part of
the work week as the omega block gradually breaks down. a
northern stream mid/upper shortwave trough, currently over the
northern great lakes, will slide through ontario, quebec, and
the eastern great lakes monday but will quickly deamplify due to
strengthening quasi-zonal flow across the conus. this will allow
the large surface high to retreat southwest from its position
along the east coast this afternoon into the tennessee valley
monday, which will allow a weak cold front on the western edge
of the shortwave to drop in from the north monday afternoon.
this front will wash out over the cwa due to the mid/upper flow
rapidly turning quasi-zonal, but strong canadian high pressure
at the surface building in behind it across the great lakes
monday night and tuesday will advect noticeably cooler air into
the region, especially near the lakeshore given gusty ne winds.
expect highs tuesday to fall into the upper 50s/low 60s near
the lakeshore, with mid/upper 60s further south, which will be
cooler compared to monday.

the developing quasi-zonal flow pattern mentioned above will be
in full force by wednesday and will continue into next weekend
as a subtropical pacific jet extension, a response to the
powerful el nino, pumps extensive shortwave energy into the west
coast. this will eventually carve out a mid/upper trough and
associated large closed low along the west coast next weekend,
helping to build a broad mid/upper ridge over the eastern conus.
as this all occurs, the canadian surface high over the great
lakes tuesday will retreat off the new england coast the second
half of the week, supporting deepening southerly return flow.
the end result will be a warming trend wednesday into next
weekend, with temperatures 10 degrees above normal at times.
this will also allow the dry weather to continue until a
potential cold front late saturday into sunday, however, there
could be a few showers thursday night in far ne ohio and nw pa
as a northern stream shortwave and weak cold front try to brush
the region. any qpf would be very light until a more widespread
chance for rain late saturday into sunday depending on phasing
between northern and southern stream energy.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
widespread vfr conditions will continue through this period with
light and variable winds expected. patchy fog is possible monday
morning, but confidence is too low to include in any taf.

outlook...patchy fog is possible monday morning, but otherwise
primarily vfr expected through thursday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions will continue on lake erie for one more
day as weak pressure gradients support continued light winds.
high pressure drifting into the tennessee valley tonight and an
approaching cold front will turn winds sw at 5-10 knots until
turning n at 5-10 knots by monday afternoon and evening behind
the front. strong canadian high pressure building over the
central and eastern great lakes monday night and tuesday will
bring a period of stronger 15-20 knot winds, and these could
build waves to around 3.5 or 4 feet in the western and central
basins. we are continuing to monitor for a potential small craft
headline monday night into tuesday. winds will turn light again
tuesday night and wednesday before sw winds increase to 10-15
knots wednesday night and thursday, with w to sw winds then
continuing through the end of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...04
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 252329
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
729 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather persists through the week with highs
generally in the 70s and lows around 50.

- the next chance of widespread rain does not arrive until
saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

surface high pressure continues to be displaced south, now over the
delmarva, in response to a deep low east of the hudson bay. the
associated cold front is bisecting northern lake michigan and this
front slides southeast through time, stalling out atop the
aformentioned high. the result is increasing high clouds tonight
through monday. these high clouds may limit radiational cooling
tonight, reducing the overall fog risk, yet cannot completely
discount at least patchy fog overnight. as northeast flow becomes
established monday evening, cooler on tuesday especially north
of us 30 in the vicinity of the stalled out front. this
northeast flow in place early tuesday morning may bring a lake
erie marine layer well inland resulting in areas of dense fog.

warming back into the mid-70s wednesday as the cold front moves off
and high pressure resumes its relentless grip over the eastern
conus (here, nine days and counting rain-free. guidance
continues to advertise some fractures in this blocking pattern
with another front attempting to move to the midwest. the in-
house blend threatens some 20% pops over the greater south bend
area as early as thursday, but the meager forcing and abundance
of preceding dry air leaves me doubtful. instead, as advertised
in this space this morning, the next best chance for any
meaningful rain is not until saturday night or sunday as a
trough lifts in from the southern plains. the advertised 60%
pops could be a touch high at this distance with guidance
threatening a brief high- over- low block over the midwest,
passing the aformented trough south. stay tuned.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 725 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

trajectories rotated around from out of the east to southerly this
morning and will see a westerly component take affect tonight. this
is as the surface high slides southward the upper ridge slides
southeastward allowing a cold front front to get closer to the area.
this setup provides less of a chance for fog area-wide so will keep
it out of these tafs. this is even as fwa sees favorable cross-over
temps and light winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 252253
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
653 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather continues through early next week with temperatures
slightly above normal, despite a weak and dry cold front sagging
southward across the region tonight into monday.

- potential for fog tonight mainly southern areas, with a better
opportunity for patchy fog or low clouds developing across the thumb
and tri-cities region monday night.

- the next appreciable chance for measurable rainfall holds off
until thursday, mainly for areas across the northern half of
southeast michigan.

&&

.aviation...

window of limited cloud cover this evening as existing cirrus
briefly thins ahead of a weak cold front. modest wind from the south
during this time. this boundary will gradually sag into the region
overnight and monday. existing gradient combined with renewed
increase in cirrus will provide a notable less favorable overall
environment for fog formation during the early hours. despite this,
forecast leans into persistence with expectation for at least some
potential mainly across the detroit corridor as winds lighten and
thickening cloud holds off a bit later into the night. thicker mid
cloud to mark the early day period with the frontal passage, with a
wind shift to northerly affording some saturation within the lower
layers and an associated reduction in ceiling height with time
through the time. confidence in cigs below vfr remains low given the
general retention of drier conditions below 3000 ft.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm this morning.

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm edt sun oct 25 2026

discussion...

a strong upper-level ridge over the western gulf coast states will
be slow to break down over the next several days as it drifts east.
the southern great lakes will reside on the northern fringe of this
ridge. a weak and dry cold front looks to sink south tonight into
monday as expansive high pressure (1034 mb) builds over northern
ontario. not much cooler air will reach the southern michigan
border, as 850 mb temps hold in the upper single digits to near 10 c
early next week.

cooler air and light easterly flow will infiltrate the northern half
of the cwa, which could be conducive for fog or low cloud
development over the thumb and tri-cities regions monday night. for
tonight, potential fog development looks to be confined to the
southern half of the cwa. however, with light southwest flow ahead
of the cold front, prospects appear much lower compared to the past
couple of days without the marine influence in play.

today marks the 9th consecutive dry day in a row, and it continues
to look like we will be hard pressed to generate measurable
rainfall. the best chance over the next 5 days looks to be on
thursday, as euro ensembles indicate chances increasing to at or
above 50 percent for a hundredth of an inch across the northern half
of the cwa. with the upper-level wave and jet energy just beginning
to track into the gulf of alaska at the present time, sticking with
the lower-chance pops of the nbm is reasonable.

marine...

a moisture-starved cold front is approaching lake huron this
afternoon. latest radar data shows a few scattered light showers
along a trough axis over central huron, well ahead of the boundary.
broader coverage of showers exists along the boundary, near the
straits. the front will take the course of the night to advance
across the central waterways, featuring decreasing chances for
additional rainfall. post-frontal northerly flow ensues resulting in
rising winds and waves. depending on when flow turns more
northeasterly, there could be a brief period of max waves heights
above 5 feet for portions of saginaw bay and southern lake huron
where fetch is maximized. therefore, a short-fused small craft
advisory may be needed monday evening. high pressure then translates
southeastward across ontario on tuesday, before settling over new
england by wednesday. winds will slowly veer easterly during this
time. several additional waves of low pressure are expected to track
northeastward from the plains through the upper midwest during the
the mid-late week time-fram, with winds and waves largely holding
below headline criteria.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.