Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 181752
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1252 pm est sun jan 18 2026

.what has changed...
9:30 am est jan 18th:
increased pop`s to 20% to 40% across northern oh and nw pa to
account for potential light snow showers amidst moist isentropic
ascent preceding a low/mid-level shortwave trough axis. this
shortwave trough axis is expected to sweep e`ward through our cwa
early this afternoon through early evening. any snow accumulations
are expected to be less than one inch. please see discussion below
for further details.

6:34 am est jan 18th:
there are no impactful changes regarding this morning`s forecast
update. we are expecting a blast of frigid weather monday
through tuesday night with dangerous cold wind chills
possible. we will be watching closely for the development of a
lake effect snow band over the central and eastern basin of lake
erie monday into tuesday. this potential lake effect snow may
try wobble closer to the lakeshore of far northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania late monday into tuesday with some
accumulating snowfall.

&&

.key messages...
1) the main weather story over the next few days will be the
frigid weather heading this way monday through tuesday night
with dangerous cold wind chills as low as -10f to -20f possible.

2) a lake effect snow event will develop with very cold
southwesterly flow over lake erie late tonight through tuesday
evening. this particular lake effect setup will mainly impact
southwestern new york. the band of lake effect snow may wobble
towards the lakeshore of far neoh and nwpa late monday into
tuesday with some accumulating snowfall.

3) outside the lake-effect snow, there may be several waves of
light snow showers from fast moving low pressure systems
tracking across the great lakes this week and bring some light
snowfall.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the coldest weather so far for this winter season is heading our
way. this blast of frigid temperatures will arrive tomorrow and
continue through tuesday night. an arctic front will move
across the region early monday. the daily high temperature for
monday will likely occur early monday morning before the arctic
frontal passage. most areas may climb briefly into the low 20s
monday morning ahead of the front. temperatures will slowly
fall behind the front through teens and into the upper single
digits during the afternoon and evening. wind chill values will
drop below zero between -5f and -10f by late afternoon.

an arctic high pressure system will move from the midwest and
build into the ohio valley monday night and tuesday. we are
expecting the coldest temperatures monday night into early
tuesday morning dropping down around or on either side of zero.
some locations may drop a degree or two below zero for the
overnight low temperature. there will be a breezy from the
west-southwest 8 to 15 mph monday night into tuesday morning
that will likely cause dangerous wind chills between -10f and
-20f. we will likely need a cold weather advisory if forecast
continues to trend this way. despite skies being mostly sunny
to partly cloudy on tuesday, temperatures will only reach into
the lower and middle teens for highs. wind chills will still
hovering around zero during tuesday afternoon. it will again
be very cold tuesday night with overnight lows dropping back
into the single digits areawide. we will recover fairly nicely
with temperatures rebounding into the lower 30 on wednesday.

key message 2...
an arctic airmass will move over lake erie monday through
tuesday evening. the overall low and mid level flow of this
cold airmass will be from the west-southwest which generally
favors a setup for lake effect snow to be more impactful towards
southwestern new york. the forecast model guidance is in fair
agreement that the lake effect snow will start to develop and
organize over the central and eastern basin of lake erie by
monday morning. this lake effect snow will be near or just
offshore of the lakeshore of far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania neoh/nwpa with its trajectory heading towards the
eastern end of lake erie and southwestern new york. we will have
to watch this band of lake effect closely and nowcast the
forecast late monday into tuesday. some of the forecast
guidance like the latest hi-res models do show the potential for
this lake effect to wobble a little southward monday evening
through tuesday morning. there is at least some potential for
some accumulating snowfall for areas closer to the lakeshore of
ashtabula county and erie county pa. three to five inches of
snowfall may be possible if this lake effect brushes along that
lakeshore for a period of time before shifting back
northeastward. the rest of the primary snowbelt closer to the
lakeshore may see some passing light snow showers from lake
effect but any snowfall will be light an inch or two.

key message 3...
there will be several chances this upcoming week for some
general light snow and scattered snow showers periodically
starting tonight. a low pressure system will track across the
great lakes tonight through tomorrow and push an arctic cold
front through area early monday. as this weather system and
front moves through the region tonight through tomorrow, it will
bring scattered snow showers areawide. any snowfall will remain
light with around an inch or less possible for most locations of
northern ohio and nwpa for this weather system. there could be
some minor travel impacts and slick road conditions for the
monday morning commute with the scattered snow showers.

there will be a weather system mid-week that could bring light
snow and scattered snow showers to the area. it will arrive
late wednesday through thursday with another low pressure
system that will track across the great lakes and a trailing cold
front sweeping through the region. there could be some light
snowfall around an inch or two with the mid week system that
could have some minor travel impacts as well.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
outside of tol and fdy who will continue to see mainly mvfr
ceilings this afernoon, vfr persists though with some ceilings
of 040-050 floating around parts of the area. clouds will fill
in and lower to mvfr tonight with snow arriving late evening
into the overnight with a clipper system. this snow will likely
be accompanied by mainly mvfr ceilings and a period of ifr vsby,
with accumulations of an inch or two across the area. snow will
become lighter into monday morning, though an arctic front
sweeping through from west-east 12-18z could bring scattered
snow showers and squalls with brief but impactful vsby drops.
confidence in that increases farther east across the area,
though some snow showers could accompany the front anywhere.
drier weather returns into monday afternoon from the
west/southwest, though mvfr ceilings may not clear as quickly.

southwest winds 7-15kt this afternoon shift a bit more south-
southwest at 5-10kt tonight. these winds increase to 10-15kt
with gusts 20-25kt ahead of the arctic front early monday, then
shift more west-southwest and increase to 15-25kt with gusts
30-35kt (up to 40kt near the eastern lake erie shoreline) behind
the front later monday morning/afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers on wednesday into
thursday. non-vfr may linger across ne oh and nw pa through
thursday.

&&

.marine...
an active marine period is in store as several systems move
across the great lakes. the most impactful period appears to be
monday into tuesday as an arctic cold front ushers in west to
southwest winds of 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 45 knots
possible, particularly across the central and eastern basins of lake
erie. in this update, the gale watch has been upgraded to a gale
warning, and a heavy freezing spray warning has been issued for the
ice-free areas of the central and eastern basins as lake air
temperatures fall into the low teens behind the front on monday and
monday night. a low water advisory will also likely be needed for
the western basin given the favorable southwest fetch.

winds will begin to subside on tuesday, though elevated
southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots will remain possible across the
eastern basin through much of the day. another period of
elevated southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots is possible wednesday
into thursday, before winds subside to less than 20 knots by
friday.

generally moderate ice growth is expected across lake erie over
the next several days, with the limiting factor to rapid ice
growth being strong winds. this will also likely cause
significant drifting of existing ice.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est monday for lez142>145-
162>165.
small craft advisory until 7 am est monday for lez146>149.
gale warning from 7 am monday to 1 am est tuesday for
lez146>149-166>169.
heavy freezing spray warning from 7 am monday to 1 am est
tuesday for lez146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

discussion...77/jaszka
aviation...sullivan
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 181719
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1219 pm est sun jan 18 2026

.key messages...
- light snow showers continue today. additional light snow
accumulations of up to 1 inch possible.

- a disturbance moving through this evening into early tuesday
morning brings lake effect snow accumulations of 2 to 6
inches mainly north us-6 and system snow accumulations of up
to an inch later this afternoon through tonight. hazardous
driving conditions are possible from low visibility due to
snow and gusty winds as well as slick roads. a winter weather
advisory has been issued for berrien and cass counties in
michigan for tonight through monday morning.

- subzero single digit wind chills expected tonight, and
dangerously cold wind chills of 10 to 20 below sunday night
and monday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 345 am est sun jan 18 2026

the energy from the upper low and its associated area of deformation
slide east away from the area this morning and the lower lake mi
area dries out, trajectories turn more southward, and instability
dissipates allowing snow to dissipate as well. surface high pressure
and slight mid level height rises allow for a break in the wintry
weather until it returns again later this afternoon. this time, a
clipper system and associated vigorous shortwave dives southeastward
out of canada toward the mid mississippi valley region by this
evening. it does look like there will be a period of system snow in
advance of lake effect snow accumulating less than 1" of new snow
away from lake mi adjacent locations, but more like 1 to 2" in
berrien county where lake enhancement helps to increase totals.
trajectories remain out of the southwest until not too long after
midnight tonight, when more west-northwesterly trajectories 280-290
degrees take over. decent low level moisture and wind convergence
pair with negative theta-e lapse rates, inversion heights around
7500 to 8500 ft, and delta t values between 20 and 25c to excite the
lake effect snow machine. inversion heights drop to more like 4000
ft around midday or early afternoon monday indicating the intensity
of snow may weaken some and the low level moisture also appears to
dry out to some extent during the afternoon even as the snow
lingers. light snow likely continues downwind of lake mi monday
night and into midday tuesday when southerly trajectories take over,
low level moisture dries out, and theta-e instability dissipates.
all told, over 36 hours, have 3 to 6 inches of snow mainly north of
us-6, but especially in berrien and cass, mi counties. the other
factor in the hazards with this snow event is the gusty winds, which
look to blow at between 25 and 35 mph in our southern lower mi
counties until later monday afternoon. this would cause lowered
visibility from blowing snow with it getting ripped apart as well as
from what the falling snow would do on its own and can cause
drifting of snow on n-s roads with this fine dry snow consistency.
one issue with the snow ratios that could happen is that the dgz and
omega are below the best saturation area meaning the snow ratio
could be lower (although the beh location could have modeled marine
influence meaning it could be modeled too warm). due to these
conditions, a winter weather advisory has been issued for
berrien and cass counties in michigan for the time frame where
the most hazardous conditions are expected tonight through
monday morning.

the other hazard moving in monday is the cold air. 850 mb
temperatures drop into the -20s celsius and this cold air paired
with the gusty winds allows cold wind chills to reach -10 to -15f.
it may arrive too late monday morning to get cold weather advisory
criteria and have diurnal heating and lake clouds influencing final
temperatures. however, tuesday has much lower winds with the low
pressure area now farther east of the area, but also lower
temperatures so the max wind and min temperatures don`t line up
nicely during this scenario. warm advection is also beginning
to arrive tuesday morning so that highs, especially south of
us-30, have a good chance at being 5 to 10 degrees f warmer.

the warm advection signals the influence of our next system already,
from the plains, and there`s still differences in the placement of
the surface low for late tuesday night/wednesday. pops and snow
amounts vary but will carry the nbm pops to indicate the chance for
some precipitation during this midweek time period.

still another clipper system dives down from canada wednesday night
and thursday providing another allotment of cold air and keeping the
lake effect snow going.

another system looks to develop for friday and saturday time period.
the track for this system still needs ironing out as it could pass
south of the area. even if it develops overhead, it may wait until
it`s passed the area. have allowed the nbm pops to continue for this
system as well.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1215 pm est sun jan 18 2026

weak shortwave will continue to support some mvfr stratus and
flurries. a much stronger, system arrives tonight with another
round of light snow. ifr visibilities still appear likely,
particularly at ksbn given lake contribution. increased west-
southwest winds will also cause blowing snow, especially on
monday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
monday for miz078-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est monday for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning from 1 am monday to 7 am est
tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd/cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 181708
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1208 pm est sun jan 18 2026

.key messages...

- next chance of widespread accumulating snow showers will be
tonight into monday, when 1-3" inches is expected.

- frigid and blustery conditions monday with potential for snow
squalls and winds gusting 30-40 mph.

- dangerously cold wind chills of -5 to -15f monday night into
tuesday morning.

- another light round of snow likely on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

the region of mvfr based stratus across srn mi and nrn indiana has
been within a thermal profile conducive to flurry/light snow
production. low level southwest flow this afternoon will drive a
little more low level dry air into the region, likely resulting in
more variability to ceilings and a decrease in the coverage of
flurries. an inbound upper short wave will then bring a region light
snow into se mi between 00z and 02z this evening. the light snow will
transition to occasional snow showers overnight into monday morning
as a surge of arctic air advances across the region. current
indications are for some higher intensity snow showers to impact the
kfnt and kptk terminals around/shortly before daybreak monday.

for dtw...the light snow is forecast to begin around 01z this
evening and persist to 06z, dropping a dusting to half inch of
accumulation. more variability in ceilings and visibilities due to
occasional snow showers will then persist through monday morning.
wind will turn westerly after 14z and rapidly increase in intensity,
with gusts over 30 knots expected by monday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. high tonight and monday.

* moderate to exceed crosswind thresholds monday morning and
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 am est sun jan 18 2026

discussion...

first wave of arctic air has arrived overnight after dropping into
the ohio valley with the cyclonic flow then drawing it back
northward into far southern mi. this has lead to falling dewpoints
into the single digits lifting up across the ohio border. lingering
band of moisture and snow showers up through mid mi continues to
lose intensity into the early morning with mainly flurries
persisting but still some fine lines of convergence helping bring
some 2-4sm snow at times. dry southwesterly flow will continue into
the day further scouring out the moisture depth ahead of the next
clipper that will slide through tonight. still with a trough axis in
the vicinity and subsidence inversion aloft trapping the low level
moisture, it`s looking likely that we`ll stay overcast today with
highs only in the low to mid 20s.

next chance of widespread snow comes tonight as a clipper dives
through the longwave trough encompassing the region. though the
leading mid level vort max digs south of the area, the surface low
sets up well to our north over lake superior, deepening as it phases
with the lingering lake trough over the waters and additional mid
level support moves in. initial prefrontal trough and leading theta
e push comes through soon after 00z this evening. some additional
mid level deformation support slides through on the north side of
the mid level wave skirting through ohio as well. moisture depth
once saturated will rise to over 15kft with the arctic air
steepening low level lapse rates through the dgz which will be
between 2-5kft. qpf amounts still reside around 0.1 inch and with
the decent forcing and high snow to liquid ratios in excess 20:1
with the arctic airmass, 1 to 2 inches should be possible overnight.
main arctic front then sweeps through prior to 12z monday. in
addition to the continues strong frontal forcing and low level lapse
rates, this front will drag the sw to ne oriented lake convergence
axis eastward across lower mi. mixing depths get a big boost up to
around 8-9kft which is all lining up for a decent lake effect day
across southern mi. though initially getting pushed toward the i94
corridor, the westerly flow looks to organize it between i94 and m59
into the afternoon before mid level moisture gets stripped out with
weak ridging trying to slide through the area. so the lake
convergence axis will be offset somewhat by the arctic air cooling
the airmass below the dgz leading to smaller flakes. wind gusts will
possibly reach 30-40 mph with the high mixing depths accessing 40
knots aloft which will lead to blowing and drifting snow in addition
to potential snow squalls. snow totals for the day monday will be
difficult to pinpoint due to the dependency on the location of the
lake band. would expect a broad footprint of totals of 0.5-1.0
inches with locally higher totals in the vicinity of the band.

temperatures will be another issue through the front half of the
week with the arctic airmass in the negative teens today, dipping
further to below -20c on monday and monday night. with temps in the
teens during the day monday and tuesday and dropping to around 0f
monday night with the winds present, wind chill values will be at or
below 0f for the most part these days. monday night remains the
focus for the coldest wind chill potential with negative teens noted
in the thumb and near the ohio border, but lingering lake effect
clouds centered around m59 will lead to slightly warmer values in
the -10 to -5f range.

longwave trough flattens tuesday into wednesday with heights
increasing and a strong surface high to the south bringing warmer
air back to the region with highs back around 30 on wednesday. any
break in the active weather post arctic outbreak looks short as the
next system is already targeting the area for wednesday bringing
another round of snow.

marine...

a partial slackening of the gradient this morning allows southwest
winds to edge down slightly, toward the 20-25kt range. next clipper
quickly arrives over the northern great lakes latter part of today
deepening as it slides into eastern ontario. associated arctic front
is then set to drop across the central great lakes monday afternoon
ushering in the coldest airmass of the winter season thus far and
widespread snow showers/squalls. gradient looks to respond most over
the southern great lakes, given the low center near manitoulin
island, with west-southwest gale potential developing by monday
morning before the arrival of the actual cold front. for lake huron,
a roughly 3-5hr window for gales comes immediately along/following
the arctic front monday afternoon-evening with post frontal mixing
partially mixing down a 40-45kt llj forecast to develop at the base
of the low. gale watches remain in effect from the central waters of
lake huron down to lake erie as a result. areas of moderate to heavy
freezing spray also likely in this timeframe.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning from 7 am to 10 pm est monday for
lhz361>363-462>464.

gale warning from 11 am to 10 pm est monday for lhz362-363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est monday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.