Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
202 am edt tue sep 29 2026

.what has changed...
increased fog potential in north central and ne ohio and nw pa
early this morning, especially inland from lake erie.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly dry conditions with slowly warming temperatures
expected through thursday.

2) widespread showers expected thursday night into friday with
the passage of a cold front.

3) high pressure brings brief drying saturday and much cooler
temperatures before another cold front brings additional
showers sunday into monday and even cooler temperatures.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the picture perfect stretch of fall weather will continue for a
few more days, but a changing mid/upper air pattern will result
in warming temperatures. the persistent surface high over the
great lakes will drift into the mid atlantic today as the big
east coast low finally weakens and ejects toward nova scotia.
this will allow the mid/upper ridge over the center of the
country to build east across the ohio valley and eastern great
lakes today through thursday, eventually resulting in a strong
eastern conus mid/upper ridge and strong surface high over the
carolinas and western atlantic by thursday. at the same time, a
closed mid/upper low over the desert southwest today will slowly
lift into the central plains by thursday and begin to phase
with a deepening northern stream mid/upper trough over the
northern rockies and northern plains.

this set up will result in deepening southerly flow and
resultant warm air advection. highs will warm into the low/mid
70s areawide today, then mid/upper 70s wednesday. upper 70s/low
80s are expected by thursday, and it will be noticeably more
humid, with dew points in the low/mid 60s.

much of this time period through thursday should stay dry with
just increasing clouds wednesday and thursday, but increasing
moisture advection and isentropic ascent ahead of a cold front
slowly sinking south through the central great lakes in
response to the digging trough could lead to some rain showers
in the far northern counties wednesday night. the namnest and
rrfs bring some showers across the area wednesday night into
thursday morning, while other cams, the nam12, ecmwf, and gfs
remain mainly dry. at this time, stuck with dry nbm pops
wednesday night into thursday morning, but may need to
eventually introduce some showers if the trend continues.

key message 2...
the aforementioned cold front will begin to sag south through
the region thursday night and friday. the front will be very
slow to progress through due to the aforementioned closed low
phasing with the digging northern stream trough, resulting in a
weak surface wave on the front thursday night and friday. this
surface wave will have synoptic support from the right entrance
region of a 100-120+ knot h3 jet streak over lower michigan, so
expect enhanced moisture advection and isentropic ascent along
the front to drive a band of widespread showers. isolated
thunder cannot be ruled out, but given the time of year and very
little instability projected, this will mainly be a stratiform
rain event. early qpf estimates give 0.25 to 0.75 inches across
the region, so no flooding is expected. the greatest
probabilities to exceed 1 inch appear to be in nw ohio and near
the lakeshore areas. the clouds and precip will hold
temperatures down friday, so expect highs in the upper 60s/low
70s.

key message 3...
canadian high pressure building down across the great lakes in
the wake of the cold front will allow the area to dry out friday
night and saturday, but it will be much cooler as the longwave
mid/upper trough carves out across the northern plains, great
lakes, and northeast. highs saturday will only reach the mid
60s. a strong, reinforcing shortwave trough dropping through the
broader longwave trough sunday will further deepen the broad
trough and push another cold front through the region. showers
are expected with the frontal passage, but the shortwave and
deepening trough may lead to cyclogenesis over the
appalachians/mid atlantic that would have a larger shield of
rain. confidence is low 5 days out, so nbm pops look reasonable
sunday, with the highest chances in eastern ohio and western
pa. nevertheless, it will dry out sunday night and monday, but
some of the coolest temperatures of the season so far are
expected as an impressive 1035 mb surface high drops into the
upper midwest. highs monday will only be in the upper 50s/low
60s. this could set up frost potential early next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
a few clouds around 5kft linger across southern and eastern fringes
of the forecast area, but otherwise clear skies are observed. patchy
br/fg is possible through just after sunrise this morning, with the
most likely place for fog development at kyng. vfr is otherwise
expected as mostly clear skies persist alongside light and variable
winds through the rest of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers thursday night through
the weekend.

&&

.marine...
high pressure slowly drifting toward the mid atlantic today will
bring one more day of light winds on lake erie before ssw winds
increase to 10-15 knots late tonight into wednesday in response
to the gradient tightening between the high setting up along the
east coast and a cold front slowly sinking into the great lakes
from the northwest. after a brief lull wednesday afternoon and
evening, ssw winds will increase again to 10-20 knots wednesday
night and thursday while turning more sw. the cold front will
slowly sink across the lake thursday night turning winds to the
n, and expect n winds to increase to 15-20 knots friday, then
turn ne and further increase to 15-25 knots friday night into
saturday. this will build at least 2-4 foot waves friday night
and saturday in the central basin, and winds and waves will
likely trend higher, so expect that small craft advisories will
be needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...saunders
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
130 am edt tue sep 29 2026

.key messages...

- while it is possible spotty showers creep into areas north of
us-6 on wednesday, a majority of the area remains dry.

- rain is expected late thursday into early friday. around an
inch is anticipated for most locations. no severe weather or
significant flooding is expected.

- a warming trend takes mid to upper 70 degree high temps today
into the 80s for areas south of us-30 by thursday.

- trends are towards a dry and cooler weekend which looks to
continue into next week.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 125 am edt tue sep 29 2026

surface high pressure is shifting east underneath mid level ridging
and this keeps the area dry once again. one thing that does happen,
though, is that warm advection commences bringing a return to upper
cloudiness for this evening and tonight. this warm advection also
helps southern areas get into the upper 70s to around 80 degree
highs for wednesday. this is especially the case because the
vorticity is more focused to our north and west as opposed to
overhead. the best of the instability (still less than 100
j/kg of mucape) finally arrives around 00z in our northwest, but
surface dew points are still below 60f and the best forcing has
moved more northeastward instead of eastward into southwest lower
mi. all of this to say that it is possible that rain gets into the
area wednesday afternoon/evening, but severe weather is expected to
be limited and thunderstorm chances are low, if not non-existent.
this is why we have good chances to see those 80 degree highs on
wednesday is that, despite cloud cover, we have limited rain chances
down south there. by the time we get to thursday, the stalled front
to our west slides eastward slowly as a trough moves east-
southeastward across southern canada. later thursday and thursday
night is our best thunderstorm chance of this rainy period as the
nam brings through areas of instability up to 1000 j/kg of mucape.

rain may linger into friday morning, otherwise, the trend will be to
dry out friday afternoon as a surface high pressure system moves in.
this dry period also looks to last a while as the later
saturday/saturday night rain chance doesn`t have much model
agreement at this point. so, a series of high pressure systems move
through and the area remains underneath an area of subsidence as a
result.

highs in the 70s to around 80 today through thursday, trend lower,
behind the cold front thursday night, allowing for a return to highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s for friday through early next
week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 125 am edt tue sep 29 2026

as mentioned in previous taf issuances, we`ll be watching for dense
fog again early in this taf perio. last night, cool northerly
drainage flow brought marine air south from lk mi and ag fog formed
allowing for fog and patchy dense fog. nam bufkit soundings indicate
perhaps fwa is more shallow ground fog, whereas sbn gets denser fog.
however, lav guidance indicates it`s fwa that gets the denser fog.
this creates quite a bit of uncertainty with these tafs. the one
thing is that fog will likely show its hand in the first few hours
of this taf period so we may have some sign on where and how dense
fog may get. at this point, given the uncertainty, have continued
with previous forecast. will try to quickly amend when the
observations show differently.

otherwise, surface high pressure is shifting east underneath mid
level ridging and this keeps the area rain-free once again and cloud
free for the first part of the taf period. one thing that does
happen, though, is that warm advection commences bringing a return
to upper cloudiness for tuesday evening. as such, expect north winds
to become more southerly this morning, staying below 10 kts
sustained through the day again.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
349 am edt tue sep 29 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog possible this morning.

- dry and pleasant conditions again today.

- rain chances increase wednesday and continue through friday with
cooler temperatures expected friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

1018 mb surface high pressure drifts overhead this morning, causing
calm winds to organize out of the southwest by early afternoon. for
now, weak gradient flow and clear skies has led to early stages of
radiative fog development. the best signal for this holds over the
saginaw valley/thumb in closer proximity to lake moisture, but not
out of the question to see some patchy fog develop further south.
otherwise, expecting another sunny and dry fall day with highs in
the mid-70s.

in regards to our late week system, there have been a few notable
trends in the 18z/00z guidance. the first is wednesday, in which
models are trending toward a stronger southern stream low lifting
along the eastern conus ridge and into northern lower mi. the
stronger wave is able to flatten the western flank of the ridge to
bring forcing/moisture and thus rain chances into the saginaw
valley/thumb regions wednesday morning. there are still concerns
about how well the low levels can top-down saturate given the lag in
gulf moisture transport, but recent soundings show a shallower layer
of dry air. nbm pops have increased accordingly with 40-60% rain
chances showing up north of m-59 for wednesday. elsewhere, increasing
cloud cover is expected but greater depth to the dry air should keep
precipitation limited wednesday.

second trend has been a more uncertain forecast for wednesday night
into thursday as hurricane polo makes its extratropical transition
and sends a warm front into the great lakes. the trend has been for
the bulk of moisture transport to be anchored more closely to the
deformation axis, keeping it west of se michigan. disjointed column
moisture thus limits confidence in rain chances until the next wave
of moisture arrives thursday night. regardless of moisture
transport, the strong sw llj will ensure warmer temperatures thursday
with highs in the upper 70s and breezy conditions (20-25 mph gusts).

while model divergence increases daytime thursday, it then converges
again as the cold front slides through early friday morning and
connects with the shearing tropical moisture. this will be our best
chance at heavy rainfall as models hint at frontogenetic enhancement
to the precipitation axis, even as mucape holds under 500 j/kg. one
of the other notable trends in the guidance was the phasing of the
pacific closed low with the northern stream trough, which ultimately
delays the clearance of the surface trough to friday afternoon. this
keeps rain chances going through at least the first half of friday,
which combined with earlier start to precipitation wednesday boosts
qpf totals toward an inch or greater by friday night. this will
especially be the case north of m-59, where there has been an
increase in the number of 1+ inch ensemble member forecasts.

aggressive drying trend arrives friday night into saturday post-
front. assuming saturated ground and full clearing, radiative fog
potential returns saturday morning. encroaching thermal trough will
bring high temperatures for next weekend into the mid-60s with lows
in the 40s.

&&

.marine...

light and variable winds mainly under 15 knots today as high
pressure slowly slides east of the central great lakes. south to
southwest winds will then increase ahead of the next cold front,
which slowly moves through on thursday. with the warm advection
leading to more stable profiles and showers moving through during
this timeframe, wind gusts are expected to top out only around 25
knots. a better chance to briefly exceed 25 knots exists behind the
front thursday evening/night with cold advection, as 850 mb temps
lower into the mid single digits by friday morning.

another large area of high pressure building in on friday and
saturday will promote light winds for the first half of the weekend.
a stronger low tracking through the northern great lakes for the
second half of the weekend brings another opportunity for winds to
reach or exceed 25 knots over lake huron.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1145 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

aviation...

high amplitude h3 to h5 ridging will remain in place over the
central great lakes throughout the taf period. forecast data
supports the center of the surface anticyclone will arrive causing
the last of the northerly gradient component to break down.
expecting more in the way of calm and variable winds tuesday
morning. given time of year considerations with late season
evapotranspiration, br and fm remain a possibility. kept with the
inherited mention for tuesday morning. mos is decidedly more bullish
on lifr and ifr visibility restrictions at daybreak. forecasted
environmental profile supports cumulus development at the top of the
boundary layer tuesday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling/visibility at/below 200 ft / 1/2 sm early tuesday
morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......sf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.