Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
995
fxus61 kcle 181958
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
358 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) lingering showers and gusty winds expected through tonight.
a wind advisory remains in effect through 6 pm this evening.

2) mainly dry with isolated showers possible on friday. widespread
rain chances sunday and monday. below average temperatures are
expected to stick around.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure system will continue to exit to the northeast while the
upper level trough glides east across the region this evening.
winds aloft remain between 35-45 knots this afternoon which will
maintain breezy to gusty conditions, particularly along the
lake erie lakeshore in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. area sustained winds remain generally westerly at
20-30 mph with occasional gusts of 35-40 mph. have maintained
the wind advisory for portions of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through 6 pm this evening. winds will decrease
through tonight as high pressure enters from the west.

aside from the gusty conditions, a surface cold front will
continue to exit to the east this afternoon. some isolated
showers will remain possible along and east of the i-71 corridor
through this evening.

key message 2...
any lingering showers will diminish later this evening as high
pressure begins to build across the region from the west. expect for
friday and saturday to remain primarily dry. however, some isolated
afternoon showers may develop across inland portions of the forecast
area on friday.

more widespread rain showers will come sunday night into monday as
another low pressure system moves through the upper ohio valley on
monday. latest nbm probabilities for 1.50+ inches rainfall sunday
night into monday generally range between 50-60% for the majority of
the forecast area. with that, wpc has included the western two-
thirds of our forecast area in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall during that timeframe.

cooler conditions expected this weekend into early next week behind
today`s cold front. highs will generally rise into the mid to upper
70s each afternoon with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
at the surface, a cold front appeared to extend sw`ward from
north and west of keri to east and south of klnn to north and
west of kmfd to east and south of kmnn. this front continues
moving e`ward and should exit the rest of our region by
~20z/thurs. behind the front, a ridge builds slowly from the
northern and central great plains through 18z/fri. ahead of the
cold front, our regional surface winds trend sw`erly to w`erly,
while w`erly to wnw`erly winds are expected behind the front.
surface winds around 15 to 20 knots, gusting up to 25 to 35
knots, are expected through 00z/fri. thereafter, winds are
expected to be around 5 to 10 knots through 18z/fri. isolated
wind gusts up to 20 knots are expected after 14z/fri.

primarily vfr and dry weather are expected through 18z/fri.
however, isolated rain showers with brief mvfr are possible
along and ahead of the cold front, including at kcak and kyng,
through this late afternoon. note: scattered to broken diurnal
cumuliform clouds with bases near 5kft agl are expected through
this early evening and again late fri morning through 18z/fri.

outlook...isolated showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
possible friday afternoon through early evening. periodic
thunderstorms and/or showers with non-vfr are also possible
saturday morning through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
the low water advisory has been cancelled and the gale warning will
be allowed to expire at 6 pm edt this evening. will continue to
reevaluate the small craft advisory and beach hazards statement
already in effect based on trends in observations and our official
forecast. a trough lingers over lake erie through friday as its
parent and potent low wobbles ene`ward from southern qc to nb.
wsw`erly to wnw`erly winds initially around 20 to 30 knots ease to
around 10 to 15 knots by midnight tonight. waves initially as large
as 5 to 10 feet with occasional 12 footers should subside to 4 feet
or less by midnight tonight and then to 3 feet or less by daybreak
friday. on friday, wsw`erly to wnw`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots,
flirting with 20 knots at times are expected. waves of mainly 3 feet
or less with occasional 4 footers are forecast.

during friday night through saturday night, a high pressure ridge
overspreads lake erie slowly and from the west. this ridge should be
accompanied by primarily w`erly to nw`erly winds around 10 to 15
knots. waves of 3 feet or less are expected. on sunday, the ridge
will crest e`ward across lake erie and be accompanied by variable
winds around 5 to 10 knots. these winds are expected to trend
onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake
breeze development. waves should be 2 feet or less.

during sunday night through monday, a trough should affect lake erie
as a deepening low wobbles ene`ward from the mid ms valley toward
central ny. winds should become se`erly to e`erly and freshen to
around 15 to 25 knots sunday night before backing toward n`erly and
easing slightly to around 10 to 20 knots on monday. waves as large
as 3 to 5 feet are expected. a small craft advisory will likely be
needed. n`erly to w`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should impact
lake erie monday night through tuesday as a ridge builds from the
north-central united states and vicinity. waves of mainly 3 feet or
less are forecast, but occasional 4 footers are expected monday
night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
007-009>012-089.
wind advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ohz011>014-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001.
wind advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez142>144.
gale warning until 6 pm edt this evening for lez145>149-
165>169.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
892
fxus63 kiwx 181738
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
138 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

.key messages...


- continued seasonably cool into next week.

- a few light sprinkles possible this afternoon. light rain
chances return on saturday. more widespread moderate rain is
expected on sunday into monday. a few thunderstorms will be
possible.

- periodic rainfall chances into the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1254 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

below normal temperatures with periodic chances of
showers/t-storms will be the theme into next week with a low
pressure system centered over central canada providing cyclonic
flow into the great lakes region. this will continue to allow
for the synoptic cooling and weak disturbances to push eastward
into the area along with surface dew points remaining mainly in
the mid 50s to low 60s, which will keep low temperatures in the
same range over the next several days. a few remaining
sprinkles possible this evening with low clouds in place in the
wake of yesterday`s system but will start to give away to some
clearing with drier mid level flow from the north.

the next chances of showers arrives on saturday with a weak
shortwave but the better chances for a more widespread and
hearty rainfall will begin on sunday and continue into monday
as a stronger shortwave pushes eastward through the cyclonic
flow aloft. a few rumbles of thunder will be possible mainly for
the southern half of the cwa with a bit better instability
further south and pwats around 1.7 inches making for any
convective showers/storms fairly efficient. wpc currently has
precipitation amounts of 1 to 2 inches over our cwa for sunday
into monday. a break in precipitation will return tuesday but
looks like another disturbance pushes into the region on
wednesday with another shot of showers/storms.


&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1218 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

a post-frontal, broken, cu field should largely be in the low
vfr category this afternoon, save for ksbn where times of high
mvfr will remain possible through 18-19z. this cloud cover and gusty
west winds will diminish otherwise into tonight with vfr
conditions anticipated.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 7 pm cdt this evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
624
fxus63 kdtx 181946
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
346 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

.key messages...

- breezy today with westerly wind gusts of up to 35 mph and a few
isolated showers possible through remainder of the afternoon.

- dry friday with scattered showers and isolated general
thunderstorms on saturday.

- additional rainfall chances focused across lower michigan sunday
evening into monday.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

cooler cyclonic flow over the area today with an 115+ knot upper
level jet extending out of the pacnw through the eastern great lakes.
this has supported a high coverage of clouds across the area this
afternoon. steepened lower level lapse rates have also supported
gusty winds to around 35 to 40 mph. gusty conditions should ease this
evening as stable conditions develop with the inbound surface high
pressure and the stronger lower level jet winds move off to the east.
while the environment is lacking deeper moisture, the northwest flow
and weak caa presents low end pops for possible isolated shower
activity through remainder of the afternoon. a cloud clearing trend
is expected tonight bring mostly clear skies and lows down into the
low/mid 50s.

surface high pressure with low amplitude low level ridge will lead
to dry conditions for tomorrow. less cloud cover and slightly warmer
850 mb temperatures should lead afternoon high temperatures
generally around the mid 70s. a weak shortwave is progged to pass
within the northwest flow of the broader trough and arrive locally
on saturday. slight improvement in moisture with marginally improved
instability and lapse rates should be enough to support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. the better environment for
thunderstorms looks focused north of i-69.

stable conditions will mark the start of sunday as a convective
system organizes upstream around the mid-mississippi river forced by
a mid-level wave passing through the central plains, strong low
level jet, and moisture convergence. the northern periphery of this
mcs looks to clip lower michigan sunday evening into monday.
forecast shows weak lapse rates and little to no instability, so a
severe weather threat should be limited with heavy rainfall being
the main focus. there is still room for a shift in the rainfall
axis, but heaviest rainfall is currently forecast to set up across
in and oh. temperature forecast over the weekend into next week
looks somewhat steady with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in
the 50s.

&&

.marine...

breezy west flow persists for the remaining daylight hours in the
wake of a departing low pressure system. wind gusts ranging between
20-30 knots will be likely and small craft advisories remain in
place through tonight. a ridge of high pressure will build in late
tonight through tomorrow morning which will relax the pressure
gradient and will reduce wind speeds and gust potential. an upper-
level disturbance quickly passes through in the morning and early
afternoon which will bring chances for rain showers and a low chance
for an embedded thunderstorm. a weak area of high pressure will then
hold through the weekend before low pressure arrives over the ohio
valley early monday morning, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances
along with elevated wind gusts, particularly across the southern
great lakes through lake erie and lake st. clair.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 104 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

aviation...

westerly winds gusting to 30-35 knots this afternoon will drop below
10 knots tonight, before ramping back up friday with gusts peaking
around 25 knots. deeper boundary layer mixing this afternoon should
yield mostly clear skies this evening, but there is some indication
for renewed vfr cloud development overnight and especially friday
with steepening low level lapse rates from surface heating.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5 kft this afternoon and then
again tomorrow afternoon.

* medium for crosswind operations this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......am
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.