Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
448
fxus61 kcle 051836
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
236 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were made with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) our weather pattern will eventually become more unsettled
with increasingly better chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the end of this week and into the weekend.

2) temperatures will generally be near or just slightly above
average through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the high pressure system which brought nice, fair weather to the
area over the past couple of days is slowly losing influence
over us as it drift eastward today. a weak and broad low
pressure system has moved up from the southeastern u.s. into the
mid- appalachian and mid-atlantic region today. we are on the
northwest fringes of this weather system. it has brought back
some moisture into our atmosphere, especially over eastern ohio
and northwester pennsylvania. we currently have scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of east central
and northeast ohio as well as nwpa this afternoon, generally
along and east of the i-77 corridor. the rest of the area will
remain rainfree and partly cloudy for the remainder of this
afternoon and evening. the scattered convection over neoh and
nwpa this afternoon will gradually decrease in coverage and move
eastward out of the area this evening.

the next weather system to impact the area will be a weak and
slow moving cold front that is currently located from the
central great lakes region down into the cornbelt belt of iowa.
there will also be a change in our weather pattern with a broad
upper level trough slowly shifting from the north central u.s
eastward into the great lakes region later this week into the
weekend. we will be near the base of this broad upper level
trough for several days starting thursday through the weekend.
we will be watching for little mid-level disturbances or weak
short-wave troughs to round the base of the broader upper level
trough to bring us multiple rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. this weather pattern setup
looks increasingly likely it will continue to be somewhat
unsettled going into early next week as well.

the weak cold front will move closer to our area from the west
tomorrow and eventually stall out over the area or just
northwest of us. this frontal boundary will help in pooling of
moisture along and ahead of it over the next several days with
pwat values up to 1.8 inch at times. we will have scattered pops
across much of the area thursday, especially during the
afternoon and evening. most of the convection will be diurnally
driven with the daytime heating. there will be a slightly better
mid-level disturbance to interact with the frontal boundary on
friday which will bring higher rain chances. some of that
convection on friday may linger into friday night with likely
pops. given the higher moisture content that is expected to be
around, localized heavy rainfall may be possible with any slow
moving and training of storms. we will keep the higher pops in
the forecast through the weekend. saturday afternoon/evening and
sunday evening/overnight will be the two time frames that we
will have the highest rain chances for showers and storms. it
appears that the stalled frontal boundary will stick around and
bring unsettled weather monday and perhaps into tuesday with
higher pops in the forecast. we may finally see a drier forecast
return by the middle of next week as the front gets a push to
move out of our area. it is very possible that we have several
inches of rainfall across the area this weekend into early next
week.

key message 2...
temperatures are expected to be near or at just slightly above
average for early august standards through the weekend into
early next week. high temperatures will generally be in the
lower to middle 80s thursday through monday with overnight low
temps in the 60s. we may see temperatures drop a few degrees by
the middle of next week when a cold front pushes through the
area.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
scattered thunderstorms will develop near cak, yng, and eri this
afternoon. a few storms may produce ifr visibility and gusty
winds. confidence is high in thunderstorms producing at least
scattered gusts to 25 knots but can`t rule out a stronger storm
or two producing gusts exceeding 40 knots. most storms are
likely to dissipate by 00z but a few showers and storms could
potentially linger through at late as 03z.

vfr conditions will return areawide tonight, and continue
through at least thursday morning. some patchy fog or low
ceilings is possible wherever rain is most persistent this
evening (so most likely at cak and yng) but confidence was too
low to add to tafs at this time. scattered showers with an
isolated embedded thunderstorms is possible thursday afternoon,
and is mostly likely in northwest ohio after 18z.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through
monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours for
each day.

&&

.marine...
light winds expected to continue on lake erie with a light lake
breeze thursday afternoon. southwest winds on friday and
increase to 10-15 knots friday night ahead of a cold front.
occasional veering southwesterly to westerly is possible as the
front lingers in the vicinity of the lake over the weekend.
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region
thursday evening and continue into early next week, producing
localized erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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896
fxus63 kiwx 051821
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
221 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions through early evening especially southeast of
intestate 90 corridor.

- chances (30-70 percent) for showers and storms this evening
and persist at times into through thursday and into friday
morning. locally heavy rain is possible.

- low chances for showers and storms saturday into tuesday (20-40
percent).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 151 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

for this forecast period did further trend lower with pops and
further pushed back timing as uncertainty remains high in the
exact evolution of this abnormal synoptic setup. the slow
moving, weakening, and washed out cool frontal boundary with
fairly low amounts of forcing and instability less than 2000
j/kg is not being handled well at all by guidance. there still
is the chance for some locally heavy rainfall at times if
thunderstorms can develop and drift slowly along the boundary in
pretty unidirectional flow and as the environment is rich in
moisture with pwats 1.5 to 2 inches available. however, the
higher rainfall amounts will be very localized and hit or miss
with the showers nature. wpc still has portions of our are under
a marginal risk for exceeding flash flood guidance tonight
through friday morning. this event sure has the earmarks of
having bust potential especially with the increased uncertainty
and a majority of the troughs energy being pushed well north of
the area into canada.

a pretty stagnant pattern seems to set up over the area with
troughing remaining in place to the north of the region and
cyclonic to zonal flow aloft will remain over the area. this
will keep the high temperature trend stable with seasonal
values in the low to mid 80s well into next week. there will
also be periods of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon early evening time frame but with the convective
nature will be again a hit or miss coverage.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 108 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

a tale of two tafs this afternoon: one-liner at kfwa while ksbn
faces episodes of -shra.

preexisting high pressure still exerts some influence over
eastern indiana, as evidenced by dew points in the low-60s.
modest low pressure of 1016mb over far northern lower michigan
is struggling to exert its trailing precipitation shield
eastward. a much better organized area of -shra is noted over
far western illinois and guidance has a fair handle on this,
bringing it toward ksbn near 00z. time height cross sections
depict modest forcing through the column which bolsters
confidence in -shra there.

as upper-level forcing lingers, but remains modest, a second
period of rain is probable near 12z. at fwa, lingering dry air
below 10k ft and poor forcing on time-heights really diminishes
any confidence in showers there. as a result, the inherited dry
taf continues. perhaps a better opportunity for -shra just
beyond 18z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
543
fxus63 kdtx 051748
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
148 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and thunderstorms move into the tri cities
today, expanding across the rest of se michigan tonight.

- an unsettled pattern continues thursday into the weekend with
periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.aviation...

a stationary front remains draped from northern lake huron
southwestward through chicago this afternoon. this front has been
responsible for some isolated light showers with the only lightning
flashes back west over lake mi. the next wave rippling along the
front will come thought mbs and fnt this afternoon which will bring
a better chance of showers. took lightning out of the taf for now
due to current lack of instability and likely lack of coverage
later. a larger wave will pass through lower mi tonight bringing
chances of showers and storms for all taf sites. will need to watch
for possible fog late tonight especially on the north/west side of
the precip shield where that sets up with the second wave. dense
clouds exist northwest of ptk with only few cu around the detroit
area this afternoon. clouds will expand and lower tonight with the
next wave.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast at dtw today through
tonight. there is still a chance a few storms graze the northern
reaches of d-21 tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings below 5kft today, moderate tonight into thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 340 am edt wed aug 5 2026

discussion...

a cold front is draped from the straits down to the milwaukee
vicinity this morning, orphaned off by parent low pressure quickly
racing across northern quebec. forward momentum carries the front
slowly eastward today, with a few nudges from several weak
shortwaves in the mid-level flow. one of these is passing across
lake michigan this morning, tied to jet entrance region ascent
aloft. shower production has increased along this segment of the
front - this activity mainly targets northern lower mi this morning
but also offers a 20-40% chance for some showers in the saginaw
valley before noon.

thickness advection via southwest flow and lots of insolation bring
an uptick in warmth for most of se mi compared to the past few days.
mid to upper 80s will be common for a high temp. meanwhile, higher
coverage of cloud closer the front should limit temps to the lower
80s in the saginaw valley. there will be a lull in upper forcing
during the day and low-level moisture looks to hold close to the
surface front just upstream, so confidence is relatively low on
development of additional showers in the cwa. afternoon convection
that develops in some cam solutions appear to be tied to a
differential heating boundary in the saginaw valley/i-69 corridor -
this may provide enough of a trigger absent of larger scale forcing
aloft. href and refs ensemble mean sbcape and bulk wind shear on the
order of 500 j/kg and 25 kt respectively would support disorganized
clusters of thunderstorms with little potential for severe weather.
otherwise, lack of low-level moisture and forcing should help keep
much of the area dry and warm today.

better signal for ascent works in late this evening and overnight as
a jet streak rounds the base of the longwave trough upstream, with
its entrance region passing overhead coincident with pva and height
falls between 00z and 09z. the highest pops (50-60%) set up
generally north and west of metro detroit overnight. some
showers/storms may produce localized heavy rainfall. the front
advances farther into se mi daytime thursday, with more favorable
diurnal timing and another mid-level disturbance supporting a 50-60%
pop mainly south and east of a line from owosso to sandusky. similar
instability and wind shear progs will bring potential for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms but limit chances for severe weather. the
front progresses south of the area thursday night with weak high
pressure offering a window for drier conditions. the front is then
shown to drift back northward on friday with another window for
scattered showers and storms.

unsettled conditions look likely to continue into the weekend and
possibly beyond as high pressure settles over the four corners and
low pressure over hudson bay maintains an active northwest flow
pattern into the great lakes. still time to gather details on more
specific windows of higher probability for precip, but this upper
pattern generally holds in place into early and possibly mid next
week.

marine...

a low pressure system slows over hudson bay today, with its extended
attendant cold front approaching the central great lakes from the
west. this provides the first opportunity for showers and a few
thunderstorms this week, as the boundary likely stalls over lake
huron tonight. several disturbances are then expected to ripple over
the boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through thursday. the
front should resume forward progress on friday with additional
chances for convection for the southern waterways. winds are
expected to remain below headline criteria through the rest of the
week. drier weather may briefly return for parts of friday and/or
saturday, but the front will stall out again in the vicinity,
keeping low chances for thunder through the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.