Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
705 am est fri jan 16 2026

.what has changed...
there is high forecast confidence that a very cold weather
outbreak is coming to the great lakes region later this weekend
into next week. confidence is also increasing for the potential
of impactful lake effect snow off of lake erie early next week
with a west to southwest wind. initially the lake effect will
focus the heaviest snow towards southwestern new york, but
there is increasing potential for impactful snow to move into
northeast oh and northwest pa for a time period monday into
tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) a low pressure system will track across the upper great
lakes and bring the chance for scattered light snow showers
today through saturday. there will be a brief period of slightly
milder temperatures today through early saturday before much
colder weather returns.

2) a prolonged period of frigid weather will arrive saturday
night through tuesday night. high temperatures will be in the
10s and overnight low temperatures in the single digits to
slightly below zero. the coldest weather and potential for
dangerous wind chills is expected monday through tuesday.

3) an arctic cold front may bring light snow showers to the
area early next week. impactful lake effect snow is possible
late sunday night through tuesday night for far northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
we will have a brief period of milder temperature today through
early saturday before the weather becomes frigid for several
days. the upper level weather pattern has been this persistent
trough over the great lakes and ohio valley region. this upper
level trough will become stronger and deep as we head into this
weekend through next week. a low pressure system will track
across the upper great lakes today through saturday. ahead of
this low pressure system, there will be a brief push of milder
weather with high temperatures today and early saturday reaching
near or slightly above the freezing mark. today and early
tomorrow will be the warmest weather we have in the forecast for
a good while. this low pressure system today into the weekend
will bring a chance for scattered light snow shower across the
area. any snowfall amounts today through tomorrow will be very
light up to an inch.

key message 2...
ready or not...some frigid weather is coming our way later this
weekend into early next week. there is high forecast confidence
for this cold weather outbreak. an arctic front will move
through the great lakes and ohio valley late saturday, ushering
in an arctic airmass through tuesday. the coldest temperatures
and potential for dangerous wind chills will be monday through
tuesday. high temperatures will only be in the 10s monday and
tuesday. there may be some locations in northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania that may not get out of the single digits
for high temperatures. overnight low temperatures will be in the
single digits monday and tuesday night. the coldest night will
likely be monday night with some locations going below zero for
low temps. dangerous wind chills are likely monday through
tuesday with values potentially between -10f and -20f. a cold
weather advisory may be needed monday into tuesday.

key message 3...
impactful lake effect snow will likely develop as arctic
airmass moves over the great lakes late sunday night through
tuesday night. initially this potential lake effect snow will be
towards southwestern new york with a southwesterly wind flow
off lake erie. this low level flow will become more westerly
monday into tuesday which will steer the potential lake effect
snow into far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. there
is increasing forecast confidence for heavy lake effect snow to
impact these areas early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with deterioration to mvfr
and ifr from west to east in low ceilings and vsbys from snow
this afternoon and evening. a narrow band of snow showers moving
west to east may impact the taf sites this afternoon, though the
more widespread snow is expected to arrive by this evening,
generally along and east of the i-71 corridor. the highest
confidence for persistent ifr vsbys with this area of snow is at
cak/yng. following this area of snow, low vsbys will remain
possible overnight, albeit more in transient snow showers.
confidence in placement of these snow showers is too low for
any prevailing or tempo mention at this time.

winds are generally out of the south this morning, 10 to 12
knots. winds will increase out of the south to southwest through
this morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts
of 20 to 25 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers east of i-71 on
saturday, and again on monday. non-vfr may linger in lake effect
snow across ne oh and nw pa on tuesday.

&&

.marine...
an active marine period is in store as multiple systems move through
the great lakes into next week. ice continues to grow across the
western basin of lake erie, thus will largely be focusing on the
central and eastern basins in this discussion.

elevated south to southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots will return by
this afternoon, with a brief lull expected late this evening and
overnight as winds diminish to around 15 knots. small craft
advisories will need to be re-issued once the current headlines
expire tonight as west to southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots arrive
on saturday, increasing to 25 to 30 knots by late sunday into
monday. confidence is increasing for gales on monday into tuesday as
west to southwest winds increase further into the 30 to 35 knot
range. in addition, an arctic airmass will arrive across the great
lakes on monday, increasing the risk for heavy freezing spray during
this timeframe. winds will subside slightly to 20 to 25 knots and
favor a southwest direction by wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez146-
147.
small craft advisory until 1 am est saturday for lez148-149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
621 am est fri jan 16 2026

.key messages...
- a series of disturbances provides a couple chances for light
snow showers today and again this evening. while accumulations
stay between 1 and 2.5 inches, highest north, breezy winds up
to 25 to 30 mph may allow for blowing and drifting of snow.

- after near normal highs on friday in the low to mid 30s, a
trend to much colder conditions is in store for the weekend
into early next week with sub-zero wind chills at times. the
coldest conditions are expected from sunday night through
tuesday.

- additional chances of lake effect snow showers for the weekend
into early next weekend, especially across southern lower
michigan.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 414 am est fri jan 16 2026

a series of vort maxes look to move through the forecast area
between this morning and next week.

the first, a surface low pressure system that dove southeast from
canada towards the great lakes overnight and today shifts eastward
saturday morning. an occluded front moved through into early this
morning, but only a few areas saw snow showers with how much dry air
was within it/ in the antecedant area. warm advection will now take
over through the day ahead of a cold front and colocated vigorous
shortwave expected to move through today into the evening.
temperatures look to rise into the low 30s today, but it appears
that surface ptype looks to stay snow for most of the time period.
saturation within the column appears to be an issue today and that
will likely restrict snow accumulation. there`s an outside chance at
some drizzle/freezing drizzle, but it would be of low confidence and
for a short enough duration to leave it out of the accumulation
grids for now. additionally, am noting some convective showers this
evening into tonight with the snow squall parameter lighting up and
some sbcape along and just in front of the cold front. still have 1
to 2.5 inch storm total snow with the highest in northern berrien,
especially with the lake enhancement possible there this
evening/tonight. additionally, some 20 to 30 mph gusts could occur
with some mixing today and that could allow for some blowing and
drifting of snow.

for saturday, with the upper low just to our west, the main
vorticity lines the base of the trough, which is outside of the
area, and this allows for a day of a mix of sun and clouds. there
may be some signal of lake enhanced showers for berrien and cass, mi
but the bulk of the area looks dry. it`ll be cool on saturday with
highs only in the low to mid 20s. the back edge of the trough moves
through the tear drop of lake mi saturday night and may finish off
with a brief period of lake enhanced showers before pulling
away.

a brief period of mid level ridging moves through sunday allowing
the lake effect snow to begin to slacken back a little bit. then,
another 2 shortwaves follow for sunday night with some more lake
enhanced snow showers. the second shortwave is more vigorous than
the first one. the ecmwf and gfs both appear to be on the drier side
with these waves though and trajectories appear to have more of a
westerly component to them to keep lake enhanced snow mainly in
areas along and north of us-6 into monday. lake enhanced inversions
will be meager at lower than 850 mb and with 20c or less delta ts
restricting lake effect snow output from today until we can get to
sunday night/monday. at this point, delta t values at least begin to
achieve 25c up to 850 mb with the colder air.

mid level height rises and surface high pressure poke in monday
night and tuesday allowing for a drying trend. however, once again,
a clipper system appears to be hot on its heals for tuesday night
and wednesday. the aigfs is way early whereas the gfs is later than
the ecmwf for this system so there is still some timing differences
to iron out.

a downward trend of temperatures is expected from today to
monday/monday night with cold weather advisory wind chills possible
monday morning and monday night. 850 mb temperatures drop into the
negative 25c territory during this time frame.

thereafter, the trough across the northern tier of the conus is
expected to retract east and northward as high pressure traverses
from the plains through the ohio valley to the east coast. this
allows for a drying period for later next week. the next system
could move in between friday and saturday (1/23-1/24)

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 620 am est fri jan 16 2026

shortwave and associated cold front will cross the area this
morning with some brief light snow. trend in upstream obs has
been a faster and weaker evolution and updated the taf`s
accordingly. some brief ifr is still possible at ksbn but
chances now appear lower and expect mvfr to prevail at kfwa.
light snow will exit by 18z but additional scattered snow
showers are possible after 00z. ceilings will continue to hover
in mvfr category for most of the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
642 am est fri jan 16 2026

.key messages...

- widespread accumulating snow peaks in coverage midday and this
afternoon with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. scattered lake effect
snow showers tonight.

- becoming colder saturday and sunday with additional scattered lake
effect snow showers. widespread light snowfall likely sunday night
into monday morning.

- frigid and blustery conditions monday through wednesday with wind
chills holding near or below 0f and additional snow showers.
dangerously cold wind chills near -15f will be possible tuesday
morning.

&&

.aviation...

area of low pressure will drop into the northern great lakes this
morning and then across northern lower mi through the day and
overnight. this system will cause conditions to deteriorate through
the day with varying cigs early as some lead bands of light snow
push through, but a cold front will sweep through this
afternoon/evening bringing a short window, around 4 hours, of ifr
and potentially lifr cigs and vsbys as a band of heavier snow passes
through. though light snow will exist through much of the day, this
period will result in 1-3 inches of accumulation across the area.
should temporarily dry out immediately behind the front this
evening, but then cold southwesterly winds will initiate lake effect
snow showers across lower mi. the bulk of the showers should favor
ptk, fnt and possibly mbs, with lower chances for the detroit taf
sites. will keep the prob30s going for those sites as a placeholder
for the potential lake effect activity.

for dtw... light snow or flurries ongoing should taper off around
13z before the better organized snow band works across the state
this afternoon. trends have been to push back the heaviest snow
slightly so will drop it back an hour to 18-21z. scattered lake
effect showers are possible overnight but coverage and confidence
will be better to the north of ptk so will hold off on any mention
at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft through the forecast.

* high for precipitation type of snow today and tonight.

* medium confidence in visibility restrictions to 1/2sm in falling
snow this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 409 am est fri jan 16 2026

discussion...

an upper low dropping into the midwest is driving the region of
light snowfall working in from the west early this morning. modest
isentropic ascent ahead of the low will continue to spread overhead
through mid morning which will gradually displace low-level dry air
to allow flurries and light snow to increase in coverage over the
next few hours. there has been a trend toward slightly lower amounts
this morning and just a dusting is most likely through the morning
commute. a peak in snowfall rates is still anticipated midday and
this afternoon as forcing ramps up in response to height falls/pva
with an amplified shortwave tracking directly overhead, coincident
with upper divergence within the left exit region of the upper jet.
this period of stronger ascent will be centered between 11am and 5pm
with rates becoming briefly moderate before the dry slot arrives and
provides a transition into a more scattered/lake effect character
this evening into tonight.

soundings show the dgz initially positioned around 8-10 kft agl with
a relatively deep isothermal layer around -9 to -10c beneath.
meanwhile surface temps rise from the teens this morning to the
lower 30s by this afternoon. omega is generally focused near or just
above the dgz, suggesting some dendrite production as well as some
riming on the way down. slrs are expected to be a bit higher than
climo, around 15:1. signal among ensembles offers high confidence in
qpf between 0.05 and 0.20" through 7pm, supportive of widespread
snow totals of 1 to 3 inches. did weigh issuing a winter weather
advisory considering snowfall timing with the evening commute, but
prefer to handle with spss given the brief nature and generally
minor impacts suggested by model data. hi-res ensemble qpf lpmm
targets the northern saginaw valley to receive near or over 0.20"
with this initial round which favors the higher end of the snowfall
range in this area and the potential to exceed 3 inches.

widespread accumulating snowfall ends by this evening with the
arrival of the dry slot, but then lake effect snow showers will
affect parts of the area through the night. low-level wind
convergence within the prevailing sw flow directs the best banding
along and north of the i-69 corridor where additional accumulations
of a dusting up to around 1 inch will be likely overnight.
persistent cyclonic flow aloft with arctic air wrapping around the
system and engaging lake michigan moisture flux brings additional
chances for lake effect snow showers through the day saturday with
relatively low confidence on placement of minor accumulation, but
again the sw flow would favor areas north of metro detroit. higher
confidence in an uptick in snow shower coverage exists saturday
night into sunday morning as passage of a surface trough offers a
more defined signal for shower activity. a general half inch to 1
inch accumulation is most likely through this period.

the next wave embedded in the persistent longwave troughing pattern
arrives sunday night, ushering in a reinforcement of arctic air with
850mb temps progged to drop to near -25c by late monday. widespread
light accumulating snow will be likely late sunday into monday with
blustery/squally conditions following during the day monday as the
arctic air mass surges in. frigid conditions monday last through
wednesday morning with wind chill holding below 0f for most of this
period. monday night/tuesday morning will be a target for potential
cold weather advisory headlines as wind chill bottoms out near -15f.
snow showers will also remain pervasive through the mid-week as the
dgz resides within the boundary layer and lake moisture continues to
wash over the state.

marine...

two main low pressure systems affect the great lakes over the next
few days. the first moves in from central canada early this morning
and through the day bringing a pattern of snow across the region.
increasing south wind ahead of this system helps displace arctic air
while still remaining cold enough for snow. wind speed remains below
gales as the center of low pressure moves slowly across upper
michigan and northern lake huron through saturday. this is followed
by a brief period of high pressure sunday and then the next low
sunday night into monday. this system brings a strong surge of arctic
air, and the next potential round of gales, that dominate conditions
across lake huron and lower michigan through early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.