Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
412
fxus61 kcle 051150
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
750 am edt tue may 5 2026

.what has changed...
the axis of heaviest rainfall through tonight has shifted
slightly southeast and confidence is increasing for some
nuisance and/or minor river flooding.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
across the region today and tonight. confidence is increasing
for some nuisance and/or minor river flooding.

2) a chilly air mass will return across the region mid to late
week with another round of frost conditions possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

an area of weak low pressure will develop along a slow- moving
cold front which is currently located in the vicinity of
southern lake michigan early this morning. widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
front this afternoon into tonight. thunderstorm chances and the
heavy rain threat will be highest ahead of the front, generally
east of the i-71 corridor. the latest guidance indicates this
area could receive up to 1.5 inches of rain into early wednesday
morning, with some isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible.
area soundings support a modest heavy rain potential with
saturated and skinny-cape profiles, in addition to southwest
cloud layer flow paralleling the front. given the already
saturated ground, characterized by 3-hour ffgs just under 2
inches across much of the area, confidence is increasing for at
least some instances of nuisance flooding and/or minor river
rises. more significant water issues cannot be ruled out if
rainfall totals trend any higher and will be something to
monitor.

key message 3...

behind the cold front on wednesday, temperatures will mainly
trend below normal through the end of the week and into the
weekend with 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 and -2c
wednesday into friday morning. this will bring some frost
potential across the region both wednesday and thursday nights
as low temperatures drop into the 30s. rain chances will return
friday night into saturday, and again on sunday as a pair of low
pressure systems move through the region. another round of
chilly temperatures appear likely by early next week behind
these systems.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
widespread rain is still on track to develop late this morning
through this afternoon from west to east, with a few
thunderstorms possible on the front edge at north central and ne
terminals. the timing of the steadiest rain has trended a
couple of hours slower, so pushed back the prevailing rain
showers and tempo groups for thunder. this is especially the
case at kcak, kyng, and keri where it probably will not rain
much until this afternoon. once rain arrives, a slow drop in
cigs and vis to mvfr and eventually ifr will occur. slow
improvement is expected from west to east tonight, but rain and
ifr is likely to hang on in north central and ne ohio through nw
pa until the end of the taf period.

s to sw winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times this morning
before gradually turning nw late this morning through the
afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. wind speeds
will decrease through the afternoon, becoming ne around 3 to 5
knots by early tonight then back to n to nw late tonight.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected
through saturday. occasional thunderstorms are possible friday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
relatively quiet conditions are expected on lake erie the rest of
the week, with no marine headlines expected. sw winds of 10-15 knots
this morning will veer to nw behind a cold front this afternoon and
decrease to 5-10 knots. ne winds of 5-10 knots are then expected
tonight, becoming light and variable wednesday and wednesday night.
w winds will increase to 10-15 knots by late thursday before turning
sw at 10-15 knots by friday. the strongest winds of the entire
period will likely occur friday night into saturday, when sw winds
of 15-20 knots are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
714
fxus63 kiwx 050901
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
501 am edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers will remain possible this morning.

- widespread rain develops this afternoon into this evening,
mainly along and south of the us 24 corridor.

- below normal temperatures mid week with rain chances (30-60%)
returning friday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 am edt tue may 5 2026

scattered showers will remain possible this morning behind a
convective outflow, and in the vicinity of a sfc cold front dropping
through from northwest to southeast. a few rumbles of thunder will
also remain possible, mainly in our far southeast (portland in to
lima-ottawa oh).

increasing upper level divergence/forcing and incoming shortwave
energy on the southern fringe of a stalling upper midwest upper
trough will result in a strengthening baroclinic zone along and
southeast of the us 24 corridor this afternoon into this evening.
good moisture transport into this developing corridor of elevated
frontogenesis should allow widespread rain to develop during this
time. there will be a sharp cut-off to the rain with much of nw in
and sw mi potentially rain-free during the pm hours as drier low
level undercuts the frontal circulation. cool and mainly cloudy
otherwise today with temperatures generally in the 50s.

below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are anticipated
wednesday and thursday within a broad trough axis. heights do relax
a bit friday into the upcoming weekend signaling a slight warmup to
temperatures more typical for early may. west-northwest flow will
persist however, sending several shortwaves and frontal systems
through the region. timing of these waves per a model consensus
favors friday-friday evening and saturday night-sunday for the
best chances (30-60%) for rain.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 500 am edt tue may 5 2026

sfc cold front nearing ksbn will drop southeast through kfwa this
morning with scattered showers, particularly at ksbn along the
elevated portion of the frontal slope. mainly vfr otherwise this
morning. more widespread rain likely develops this afternoon into
this evening at kfwa as a frontal waves develops. better prospects
for more significant cig/vis restrictions will be just south of kfwa,
with ksbn vfr and potentially dry by this time as drier air begins
to make inroads.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
710
fxus63 kdtx 050958
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
558 am edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- much cooler temperatures will prevail for the rest of the work
week.

- rain chances today and tonight will be greatest across metro
detroit and points south.

&&

.aviation...

a lull in precipitation is underway this morning as a cold front
slowly migrates across the terminals. lower cloud fraction fills in
above 4 kft agl with the next round of rain. low confidence exists
regarding the timing and duration of additional showers today. the
first possibility mid-late morning with the arrival of the frontal
slope, although models have trended weaker in coverage/intensity of
these potential showers. the front clears the terminals midday and
then slows nearby, just to the southeast. meanwhile, mid-level
energy moves over the front while drawing in gulf moisture during
the pm hours. latest models are mixed in whether or not this second
wave forces additional rainfall over the southern terminals, our
just outside. should the activity spill into the southern taf sites,
heavier rainfall and thunder would be possible with brief mvfr/ifr
visibility reductions. 10-15 knot sustained winds undergo several
adjustments between wsw and wnw, before veering northerly overnight.
daytimes gusts should hold below 25 knots.

d21/dtw convection...low probability for thunderstorms persists late
this afternoon and evening, dependent on the northern edge of a
secondary precipitation response.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms from 18z-02z today/tonight.

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today, then low tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue may 5 2026

discussion...

mid level height falls across the northern great lakes this morning
resulting from short wave energy pivoting around the northern
ontario upper low will drive a surface cold front across se mi.
while somewhat ill-defined due to overnight convection and a weak
surface low which developed off the thumb region, the main surface
front will be east of the forecast area by early afternoon. some
residual boundary layer convergence, elevated frontal forcing and a
weak short wave lifting into the area from iowa will sustain a
chance of lingering showers during the day. shallow post frontal
cold air advection will drop temperatures into the 50s. the earlier
fropa across the saginaw valley and expectation for a thinner
afternoon cloud deck in this area will offer the potential for
daytime heating to boost late afternoon highs back around 60 in the
north.

the 00z model suite and their respective ensembles continue to show
variance as to the strength and position of a mid level short wave
impulse and corresponding enhancement in elevated frontogenesis
across se mi late this afternoon into early wed morning. the main
impact this will have on the forecast is how far into se mi a
secondary wave of rain expands on the cool side of the low level
baroclinic zone that will be draped across the eastern great lakes.
the ongoing upscale growth of the convective complex across central
illinois and indiana has not been handled well by much of the 00z
model suite. those hi res solutions which have a better handle on
this convection indicate a more easterly track to the forcing later
today , which would limit the better rain chances to along and
southeast of a downtown detroit to adrian line. cloud cover and a
lingering gradient flow will hold nighttime mins mainly in the 40s,
with some 30s possible north of the i-69 corridor where some
intervals of clearing are possible.

a secondary push of cold air is forecast on wednesday as long wave
troughing extends into the northern and western great lakes. while
drier air will advect into the boundary layer, model soundings
indicate enough moisture with the cold air aloft present to result
in an expanding diurnal cu field. cloud depth may enough to support
a few sprinkles or light showers by late afternoon. despite the
seasonally cold air aloft, steep daytime lapse rates and mixing
depths projected to reach 8k feet will support forecast highs in the
upper 50s to around 60, with cooler readings in the thumb and port
huron do to onshore winds. the persistence of the hudson bay upper
low and long wave troughing over the great lakes will sustain
seasonally cool conditions into the weekend. numerous short wave
impulses rotating across the region within the base of the longer
wavelength trough will support periodic chances for showers during
the latter half of the forecast period (friday thru monday).

marine...

a cold front will work across the great lakes this morning which
will briefly reorient winds north-northwest in the wake of the
front. winds to lessen in speed and become more variable during the
day today. tonight through thursday, winds will back from the
northeast to north and eventually from the west, as another area of
low pressure organizes south of the region and moves over the
continental northeast.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...sc
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.