Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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008
fxus61 kcle 191156
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
756 am edt tue may 19 2026

.what has changed...
slowed down the timing of thunderstorms for this afternoon with the
main window for stronger storms between 5 pm in the west and 10
pm in the east. lowered high temperatures across the north by a
couple degrees behind the front on wednesday. chances of a
widespread rain continue to increase for friday and friday
night.

&&

.key messages...
1) hot and humid conditions continue today with showers and
thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into tonight. there is a
slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with thunderstorms
today with scattered pockets of damaging winds the main hazard.

2) much cooler air will arrive behind a cold front for wednesday and
thursday. high temperatures on wednesday will be 20-30 degrees
cooler than tuesday.

3) widespread rain is expected friday afternoon and night with
unsettled conditions continuing into the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure is located over the upper peninsula of michigan
early this morning and is forecast to continue northeast today.
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across wisconsin and
western illinois but are expected weaken through early morning
as they continue to move eastward. meanwhile the local area is
located in the warm sector with high temperatures forecast to
reach the upper 80s again this afternoon and dewpoints gradually
creeping upward into the mid 60s by this afternoon. this will
result in slightly more humid conditions than monday but with
fairly similar heat index values near 90 degrees.

instability ahead of the eastward moving trough is expected to
weaken through early this morning then start to build across eastern
indiana and ohio for the afternoon. ml cape values of 1500-2000 j/kg
are expected in nw ohio with closer to 1200 j/kg in the east. a
shortwave moves through the upper great lakes late this afternoon
and a pre-frontal surface trough advances into nw ohio and is
expected to serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. while a
stray shower is possible earlier in the day, the main area of
activity is expected to develop towards 5 pm near toledo and
spread eastward through the evening. high level cloud may
outpace the better forcing but as we get towards evening that
may not be as significant. overall expecting a corridor of
20-30 knots of 0-6km shear which could support scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms. damaging winds are expected to be the
primary hazard but can not rule out a few reports of hail or an
isolated tornado, mainly if surface winds back sufficiently
ahead of the trough. locally heavy rain is also expected with
thunderstorms tonight with pockets of 0.50" to 1.25" as storm
motion may be parallel to the flow aloft.

key message 2...
the above mentioned cold front will extend from roughly youngstown
to marion by wednesday morning, quickly pushing south of the area.
high temperatures in the south will occur early in the morning with
falling temperatures while locations along the i-75 corridor may be
able to achieve some late afternoon warming. with that said,
lowered high temperatures from lorain to cleveland to erie where
highs may not reach 60 degrees with flow off the lake. overall
highs temperatures on wednesday will range from 20-28 degrees
cooler than what was experienced on tuesday. showers will be
limited to the far south by afternoon with diminishing trends.
any clearing is likely to be late in the day. the cool airmass
will remain for thursday with a brisk wind off lake erie.

key message 3...
long range models are coming into better agreement late this week.
an upper level trough will move east of the rocky mountains with
shortwave energy lifting north through the ohio valley. moisture
streaming north results in overrunning across ohio which expands
into northern ohio during the afternoon and evening on friday. this
is expected to be a healthy push of rain as the warm front lifts
north into saturday. temperatures on friday will still be cooler in
the 60s, before hopefully trending warmer into the 70s on saturday.
the qpf forecast from friday through saturday ranges from three
quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. the rain may become more
intermittent by saturday afternoon but scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into sunday. although timing
varies between models, eventually the trough will lift northeast
through the great lakes region with drier air arriving from the
west and reducing potential for showers and storms in the late
sunday-monday time frame.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
scattered showers are ongoing this morning across parts of the
area. there may be some brief restrictions and isolated
lightning with this activity. still expecting several hours of
dry and vfr conditions later this morning and this afternoon
before another round of convection this evening ahead of a cold
front. am expecting thunderstorms to impact most terminals this
evening, with a brief period of vsby restrictions and potential
for pockets of strong wind gusts over 40kt with the stronger
storms. still a bit of uncertainty with this later round of
storms if shower activity earlier in the day is more significant
or prolonged than expected, but still leaning towards the
evening round of storms being the main show with this set of
tafs. showers linger through most of tonight as the cold front
crosses from northwest to southeast but with diminishing
thunderstorm potential. low mvfr to even some ifr ceilings
likely arrive early wednesday behind the cold front.

winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning
and this afternoon. winds shift north-northwest behind the cold
front late tonight into early wednesday.

outlook...non-vfr continues into wednesday in lower ceilings and
possibly rain showers. non-vfr possible in showers friday into
saturday.

&&

.marine...
south-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the
lake overnight tonight. winds will generally be in the 10-20kt
range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this
afternoon. will go with a small craft advisory from erie county
oh points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as
gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. waves of
1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open
waters today. thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this
afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt
and locally up to 50kt over the lake. winds whip around to the
north- northeast late tonight into wednesday at 10-17kt behind
the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. winds increase to
15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into thursday and
easterly into friday as strong high pressure passes north and
northeast of the lake. east-northeast winds often perform well
in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the
forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is
looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore
waters late this week.

&&

.climate...
a record high temperature occurred at erie, pennsylvania on monday.
high temperatures today will approach record values at some locations
again. the following are the records for may 19.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>144.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 191016
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
616 am edt tue may 19 2026

.key messages...

- strong to severe storms are possible today between 3-11 pm
edt.

- damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the
main threats. low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated
tornado.

- warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. highs only in
the 60s wednesday and thursday.

- next chance for rain and a few storms arrive friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 259 am edt tue may 19 2026

satellite and radar imagery currently shows a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms entering illinois. this activity is expected to
weaken as it moves east, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled
out around daybreak (15-20% chances) in our forecast area. ahead of
an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be possible
this afternoon and evening. our area will be well into the warm
sector today; dewpoints will increase to around 70 degrees in
response to a strong southwest llj ramping up throughout the day.
moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the mid to upper
80s) to support sbcape of 2000-2500 j/kg. destabilization should
occur this afternoon, with chances for strong to severe storms
highest between 3-11 pm edt today. the greatest risk area will be
along and south of us 24, where a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather is in place. spc actually pulled the slight risk from
our northwest half of the forecast area, which i agree with as the
us 24 corridor will have ample time to heat up and destabilize this
afternoon before the cold front arrives. shear is still expected to
be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it
will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. with weaker
shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line
segments. given dcape of around 1000 j/kg this afternoon and evening
and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 c/km, damaging winds will be
the main threat today. in addition, forecast soundings do show some
veering between 0-1km, low level srh up to 200 m2/s2, and lcls below
1000m, so an isolated tornado is possible today. this potential is
greatest in nw ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and
destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from
west to east. with pwats around 1.25-1.5", even if storm clusters
are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in
excess of 1"/hr.

it will be noticeably drier with much more seasonable conditions
midweek behind the cold front. high pressure builds in on
wednesday and thursday across the great lakes region. highs will
be in the 60s and it will feel much cooler than the previous
stretch of warm and humid days. next chance for rain and a few
storms arrive friday as a low pressure system lifts into the
ohio river valley. highs friday and saturday will be in the 70s.
summer-like temperatures in the 80s return by late in the
weekend into early next week with additional daily periodic
chances for rain/storms.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 614 am edt tue may 19 2026

no changes needed to the 12 tafs. vfr conditions will continue
through midday. winds have diminished to around 10 kts for now,
but will quickly ramp up after sunrise and through the morning
hours to be sustained between 15 to 20 kts. breezy
southwesterly winds will gust as high as 30 kts today, even
outside of any showers or storms. an approaching cold front will
allow for scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon
and evening, with the highest confidence for any strong to
severe storms being along and south of us 24 towards kfwa. have
maintained a prob30 at ksbn for 17-20z and a few hours later at
kfwa from 19-22z. mvfr ceilings and visibilities will be
possible within any storms. the main threats today will be heavy
rain and damaging wind gusts up to 50kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 191346
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
946 am edt tue may 19 2026

.key messages...

- warm and humid conditions exist again today which supports a risk
of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. the
strongest storms are capable of damaging wind, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

- a cold front tuesday night ushers in dry and cooler weather for
wednesday and thursday.

- the next chance of rain arrives late friday and friday night.

&&

.update...

no significant changes to the inherited forecast.

a subtle shortwave lifting northeast out of the western ohio valley
is expected to provide a focus for late afternoon storm development.
unidirectional moderate southwest flow exists ahead of a cold front
this afternoon with mlcape at or above 1500 j/kg, mainly south of i-
69. a pre-frontal surface trough should allow for renewed convective
development in the uncapped environment during peak heating of the
day (3-7 pm). the bulk of hi-res solutions indicate multicells
becoming a scattered to broken line of convection, with good
agreement on the progressive nature of the activity pushing east
rather quickly. like yesterday, localized/scattered damaging wind
gusts should be the dominant hazard. however, the actual cold front
will have to track through during the evening hours, and additional
storms will be possible with any leftover instability. at the very
least, expect scattered showers before the front clears the state
and low-level dry air surges in, sending surface dew points down
into the 30s/40s for wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 602 am edt tue may 19 2026

aviation...

warm and humid conditions continue to feed into the region today as
low pressure tracks across the northern great lakes. highlighted
potential for intermittent mvfr ceilings and showers at times this
morning with a prob30 group. otherwise predominant vfr carries into
this afternoon with southwest wind becoming gusty to 25 to 30 kt.
the next round of convection becomes likely between 19z and 00z
ahead of a cold front. axis of highest instability targets mainly
southeastern portions of the forecast area, so did not include tsra
mention at kmbs. coverage of thunderstorms brings high enough
confidence for tempo groups for the metro detroit sites, and some
storms could be severe with strong wings the main threat. the cold
front passes through late evening with northwest flow ushering out
any lingering showers by midnight. a developing post-frontal
inversion brings potential for lower ceilings overnight into early
wednesday morning.

d21/dtw convection... window for scattered convective development is
focused between 19z and 00z today. storm motion will be west to east
around 40 kt. severe threat ends mid to late evening with cold
frontal passage currently timed around 04z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft today into tonight.

prev discussion...
issued at 310 am edt tue may 19 2026

discussion...

higher magnitude warmth and humidity for mid may entrenched locally
early this morning, as the area holds within deep layer south-
southwest flow for one final day. forecast for today offers a more
muddled picture in terms of convective potential, scale and timing
relative to that noted yesterday. intermittent bouts of meaningful
moisture advection will deliver another surge of higher quality
theta-e early in the day, providing some potential for greater cloud
cover to exist along with the possibility for some pockets of
convective showers. with that, expectation for gradual boundary
layer destabilization with time as intervals of greater insolation
capitalize on the elevated dewpoint (mid-upper 60s), yielding
upwards of 1500 j/kg of mlcape by late afternoon. there is a
definitive model signal for higher instability to exist southeast of
a howell to sandusky line, but with the best instability (2000+ j/kg
of mlcape) remaining across ohio. convective focus most likely along
some composite pre-frontal trough or remnant convective vort max out
ahead of the main cold front within the 19z to 00z window, offering
the greatest potential for more meaningful updrafts to emerge mainly
within the aforementioned main instability gradient. background wind
field generally modest overall, but with potential again for some
local enhancement should the convective response be governed by a
stronger convective wave. this maintains an opportunity for organized
late day convective development carrying a risk for strong winds and
large hail. afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 80s/near 90
across portions of metro detroit and points south and mainly mid 80s
elsewhere. warm sector environment will again become diurnally gusty,
with winds reaching 30 to 35 mph from the southwest at times.

a few lingering showers around early tonight as the cold front
settles through the region. otherwise, turning notably drier and
cooler as the post-cold frontal environment settles into region
overnight into wednesday. deep layer stability held within
prevailing low to mid level ridging affords dry and seasonably cool
conditions lasting into thursday. a standard moderation of the
existing airmass then occurs friday under a high degree of
insolation and increasing upper height field, but still lacking in
meaningful warm air advection. highs the remainder of the week
mainly in the 60s. coldest readings noted thursday morning, reaching
into the mid and upper 30s in some locations.

southern stream shortwave forecast to eject from the southern plains
into the great lakes this weekend. increasing magnitude of mid level
southwest flow downstream of this wave will drive a notable surge of
moisture advection directly into lower michigan friday night. while
some higher based light showers are possible late friday as the
column gradually saturates, the main window for widespread,
meaningful rainfall will arrive friday evening and persist
overnight. model guidance is coalescing around a broad swath of
mainly stratiform rain with embedded elevated convective elements
sweeping from southwest to northeast across southeast michigan.
precipitation may carry over into early saturday, before chances
taper off into the afternoon. otherwise, generally seasonable
conditions for the weekend period.

marine...

a warm and humid airmass over the cooler waters of the great lakes
will support the development and expansion of dense marine fog.
sustainment of fog will be likely through the morning hours as a
strong inversion holds overhead, and will likely continue to some
degree through the early afternoon until a cold front mixes out the
layer. as a result, a dense fog advisory has been issued through the
afternoon. otherwise, calm to lighter winds hold overnight with some
limited chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. southwest
flow increases in magnitude during daylight hours tomorrow which
will bring wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots through the saginaw bay
and along the nearshore areas which have resulted in renewed small
craft advisories. the development of strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible again in the afternoon and evening, favored across
southern lake huron and locations south. wind gusts aoa 50 knots
will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. passage
of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds
from the southwest to northwest through the evening. high pressure
builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek
period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

dense fog advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz361>363-
462>464.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......sf
aviation.....tf
discussion...mr
marine.......mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.