Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
303 am est wed jan 28 2026

.what has changed...
pops, qpf, and snow amounts have trended up slightly through
thursday evening downwind of lake erie in northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. impact should be limited with no more
than 1 to 2 inches of snow through the next couple days.
additionally, a cold weather advisory was issued for portions of
north central, northeast, and northwest ohio from 7 pm this
evening to 11 am thursday.

&&

.key messages...
1) extended cold weather, including the potential for record
low temperatures, will continue through the weekend, allowing
for elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to
infrastructure.

2) periodic light snow may impact parts of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the end of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the main message for this week continues to be the prolonged
cold spell that we are in the middle of. wind chills this
morning are still projected to get down to around -15 across
most of the forecast area, though lake clouds from lake michigan
has kept temperatures a bit warmer along and near the i-75
corridor in northwest ohio. a cold weather advisory remains in
effect areawide through 11 am this morning.

while wind speeds will be fairly similar tonight, temperatures
are expected to be a bit milder compared to this morning,
contributing to milder wind chills. even so, a cold weather
advisory was issued from 7 pm this evening to 11 am thursday for
portions of north central, northeast, and northwest ohio from 7
pm this evening to 11 am thursday. this is a lower confidence
advisory compared to the last few cold weather headlines, mainly
due to a slightly warmer airmass and the potential for lake
effect clouds keeping temperatures a bit warmer than forecast.
even so, was fairly generous with areal extent of this advisory
mainly due to the duration of cold weather, and the increased
levels of impacts that it can pose.

the coldest air temperatures of the forecast are expected
thursday night into friday morning and again friday night into
saturday morning when lows are in the -5 to -10 range. forecast
minimum temperatures are near record lows for each of these
dates. record lows would require clear skies and calm
conditions for favorable radiational cooling; however, there is
a lot of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast, mainly because
low-level moisture and lake effect clouds are difficult to
forecast, especially given ice development on the lakes. lower
wind speeds are forecast, though should still contribute to wind
chills at or below -15 each of these days for most of the area.

temperatures remain cold and below normal through early next
week, though a warming trend to contribute to improving
conditions.

this extended period of cold temperatures will bring increased
risk of infrastructure impacts due to the cold, including burst
pipes, water main breaks, and dead batteries. the prolonged
nature of the cold will also pose a continued risk of exposure
to more vulnerable populations. these impacts will continue
through at least monday.

key message 2...
a broader upper-level trough remains over much of the eastern
conus with northwest flow of cold air aloft continuing through
the week. subtle mid-level shortwave troughs will swing through
at various points, producing increased chances of light snow
showers at various points this week. even though lake erie is
mostly ice-covered, cracks in the lake erie ice (along with
added low-level moisture from upstream great lakes) continues
to contribute to low-level moisture downwind of lake erie. the
best chance at some light snow will be wednesday afternoon when
deeper moisture up to 700 mb will accompany one of the aforementioned
shortwave troughs, with a better shot at light snow
accumulations in the snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. at this point, only an inch of additional snow
accumulation is expected, but wouldn`t be surprised to see some
highly localized amounts of 2 or 3 inches in the higher of erie,
pa. impacts to travel should be minimal.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
at the surface, a ridge builds into our region from the northern
and central great plains as a trough lingers over and very near
the great lakes through 06z/thurs. our regional surface winds
trend sw`erly to w`erly around 5 to 15 knots through the taf
period. gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at times,
especially from ~17z/wed to ~00z/thurs. isolated to widespread
low clouds with bases mainly near 2kft to 3.5kft agl are
expected through 06z/thurs. mainly dry weather and vfr
visibility are expected. however, isolated to scattered and
periodic lake erie lake-effect snow (les) showers are expected
to impact ne oh and nw pa through 06z/thurs as mean low-level
flow varies between nw`erly and sw`erly. primarily mvfr are
forecast with these les showers, but brief ifr to lifr are
possible after ~20z/wed.

outlook...additional periods of non-vfr with low clouds and
snow showers are expected through this weekend. greatest
chances exist in ne oh and nw pa, where periodic lake-effect
snow downwind of mainly ice-covered lake erie should occur.

&&

.marine...
winds on lake erie will quickly turn sw again this morning and
increase to 15-20 knots through the day as another cold front
approaches the lake. as the front passes across the lake tonight,
winds will veer to w and decrease to 10-15 knots, with w winds of 10-
15 knots continuing thursday before turning nw at 5-10 knots
thursday night through friday night. winds will veer to nnw and
increase to 10-15 knots saturday, backing to w again by late sunday
with 10-15 knot speeds continuing.

the deep arctic airmass entrenched across the great lakes region
will allow ice on lake erie to further expand and thicken through
the weekend. this will help to anchor the ice in place, effectively
reducing the movement of the ice despite the changes in wind speed
and direction.

&&

.climate...
record low temperatures are possible on friday and saturday. here
are the daily record low minimum temperatures for january 30 and 31:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019)
01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
thursday for ohz006-008-009-017>019-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...cold weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...jaszka
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
226 am est wed jan 28 2026

.key messages...

- arctic air remains locked in through this weekend with bouts
of sub-zero wind chills.

- coverage of lake effect snow showers increase in northwest in
and southwest mi late this afternoon through thursday morning
with minor accumulations (generally <1") possible.

- a more intense lake effect snow band may clip southwest
berrien and la porte counties friday night into saturday am
(low confidence).

- temperatures will slowly moderate sunday through the middle of
next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 226 am est wed jan 28 2026

times of sub-zero wind chills (near advisory) and les chances will
remain the wx story through at least saturday as cold northwest
flow holds over the midwest.

for the les chances, ongoing/subtle low level backing and
drying has supported a trend toward lighter snow showers and
flurries with little additional accumulation/impact through most
of today. the flow veers to the wnw with a more pronounced lake
aggregate trough and slight bump to inversion heights late this
afternoon through thursday morning. the result should be an
increase to snow shower coverage during this time in our wnw les
belts. cloud layer will be within at least the upper portion of
the dgz which could help support some light accums (generally
<1"), with the dry/arctic air mass and lacking parcel residence
time limiting factors for a more robust response.

the better potential for more impactful les still appears to be in
late thursday night through saturday morning periods in our
northerly flow belts as arctic high pressure drops south into the
central us. initial development may be somewhat disorganized to start
on friday as an upper level vort lobe an associated trough drops
south with an unfavorably sheared wind profile. the bulk of this
profile does become north-northeast with 850 mb temps near -20c
friday night into saturday morning, possibly allowing a formidable
single band to wobble across far northeast il and far northwest
in. this could clip mainly southwest berrien and la porte counties
for a time with heavier snow. still plenty of uncertainty at this
range, but something to monitor.

medium range models have remain consistent in finally releasing the
core of the arctic air off to the northeast sunday into early next
week. temps will gradually respond, potentially nearing 30f for
highs by the middle of next week. there are periodic chances for
light snow otherwise next week as broad upper troughing lingers
and a few shortwaves track through with light waa drive precip.


&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1220 am est wed jan 28 2026

subtle backing of low level winds ahead of the next shortwave
arriving late morning will bring a brief end to lake effect snow
and mvfr conditions at ksbn. however, winds veer again by late
in the period and expect more light lake effect snow and mvfr
ceilings at ksbn, especially around and just after 06z thu. the
exact start time remains uncertain but chances steadily increase
through the end of this forecast period. dry/vfr conditions
expected to persist at kfwa through the period though some bkn 4
kft stratus is possible at times, especially around midday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ this morning
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
oh...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
400 am est wed jan 28 2026

.key messages...

- very cold conditions continue today with wind chills below zero.

- potential remains for light snow showers to develop with localized
accumulations of a dusting to a quarter inch possible.

- wind chills late tonight and thursday morning drop into the 10 to
15 degrees below zero range, and then 15 to 20 degree below zero
range friday and saturday morning.

&&

.discussion...

a very cold pattern continues today and into the weekend as an
arctic airmass remains entrenched over the great lakes, featuring
850 mb temperatures in the minus 20c range.

lake michigan stratocumulus spreads eastward early this morning as
low-level flow backs westerly. this should hold initial wind chills
at (or above) current values into the mid-morning hours of around
minus 10f. the next shortwave feature within the amplified eastern
noam trough axis will facilitate a period of cva. a lean, but
sufficiently moist, thetae plume spreads across lower michigan
during the latter half of the day. this aids in the development of
scattered lake-augmented snow showers. weak convergence enhancement
remains possible across the middle third of the cwa, corresponding
with the higher pops (between i-94 and i-69). overall accumulations
should be light and variable, conditional on areas that experience
the most frequent intersection of lake bands. low confidence in any
accumulations above a fluffy quarter inch. additional forcing marked
by a quick glancing surface trough over the thumb noted in several
deterministic solutions, supporting a lagged light snow response for
this evening. partial clearing then leads to nocturnal cooling with
reduced westerly gradient wind and lows dropping aob 0f. this sets
up marginal cold weather advisory conditions late tonight into
thursday morning with minimum apparent temperatures near, or
slightly warmer than, minus 15f.

governing 505 dam 500 mb low interfaces with a 150 knot jet streak
extending across the upper midwest on thursday after a retrograding
polar wave descends southwestward over hudson bay. the low-level
wind field weakens and veers nnw throughout the day which decreases
the efficiency and longevity of lake effect. still, weak ascent
within a well-mixed cold lower troposphere environment will maintain
low-end chances for flurry generation. the upper low eventually
broadens and shears zonally as the cold reservoir spills southward
with time on thursday. this eventually ushers in a reinforcing blast
of modified arctic air, attributed to the still partially unfrozen
great lakes. higher confidence exists in the cold weather advisory
conditions for the northern half of the cwa given an earlier arrival
of the next round of cold advection, and slightly higher wind
speeds. some portion of the forecast area will require cold weather
headlines.

the inverted mid-level circulation carves through the plains on
friday with a highly ageostrophic base, but less consequential
dynamics locally precludes any forced precipitation aside from
additional flurries. highs will struggle to get out of the single
digits amidst northerly flow trajectories arcing back into the
canadian prairies with similar overnight/morning wind chill concerns
and additional opportunities for flurries and/or light occasional
snow showers. impressive central surface high pressure near 1050 mb
tracks due south friday night into saturday keeping arctic air
flowing across the great lakes. minus double digit wind chills again
friday night into saturday morning.

&&

.marine...

brisk westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
this morning continue today as yet another arctic front and frigid
airmass arrives this evening. snow showers will accompany the front
over lake huron as it drops from north to south wednesday night.
very cold airmass (negative mid 20s at 850 mb) will lead to lake
induced trough and continued snow showers on thursday, with
northerly winds kicking in to finish the work week. wind speeds look
to remain under 30 knots. slowly moderating airmass and mostly light
winds look to be in store for the weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1137 pm est tue jan 27 2026

aviation...

an ongoing backing of the low level flow to the west is attempting
to drive the vfr based lake mi stratus deck back into se mi. while
the degree of dry air now over se mi may slow the eastward progress,
good ducting under the low level inversion should eventually bring
these clouds into the terminals during the overnight. the degree of
cold air within the moist layer will easily support some flurries
out of the cloud deck. a little more organized snow shower
activity is forecast wed afternoon into the evening as a little
deeper moisture advances across the area in advance of a secondary
push of arctic air. enhanced convergence will target more persistent
snow showers around ptk during the late morning and afternoon,
likely shifting across the metro detroit terminals late wed
afternoon/evening as slightly veering flow shifts the better
convergence axis south.

for dtw...some flurries will accompany the stratus into metro
overnight. the intensity is not expected to have any overall impacts
prior to daybreak.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet wednesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kgk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.