Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
239
fxus61 kcle 221738
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
138 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

.what has changed...
as temperatures quickly cool again tonight, the chance for
patchy dense fog will return, especially west of i-71, into
friday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions will persist into next week with the potential
for widespread frost and possibly some areas of freeze saturday
morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a dominant upper level ridge and associated strong surface high
will continue to influence the weather across the area into
early next week. dry conditions with seasonable temperatures
will keep the weather pleasant across the area. there is a
chance for patchy dense fog late tonight into friday morning and
some lingering moisture gets trapped in an inversion. the fog
potential should be isolated to areas west of i-71. in addition,
friday and saturday nights will see a widespread drop in
temperatures into the 30s for much of the area, possibly
touching the upper 20s at times. this will likely result in
widespread frost potential both nights with isolated areas of
freeze potential. both nights may need a frost/freeze headline,
but will wait for tomorrow to ensure trends in models persist.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr is expected through tonight. patchy fog and low stratus will
likely develop at inland terminals again early friday morning,
primarily at ktol/kfdy. during this time, there will probably be
a mixed bag of lifr/ifr/mvfr conditions. any fog/stratus will
lift by mid to late morning. winds will be out of the north
through early evening before becoming calm tonight.
east/northeast winds to 5 to 10 knots will develop at kcle/keri
friday morning/afternoon.

outlook...periods of overnight patchy dense fog may impact taf
sites through the weekend. otherwise, primarily vfr is
expected.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue to push east into the area, allowing
for north-northeast flow of 5-10 knots to persist through
friday. as high pressure shifts on saturday, winds will become
southeasterly at 5-10 knots through at least sunday before
gaining a more westerly component by monday. waves through the
entire period should remain 2 feet or less. overall, quiet
marine conditions are expected to persist with no headlines
expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
242
fxus63 kiwx 221728
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
128 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

.key messages...

- locally dense fog possible again early friday morning, especially
northeast of fort wayne, in.

- tranquil fall weather continues with mild temperatures, light
winds, and sunshine.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 127 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

a largely stagnant synoptic pattern will allow for mild and dry
conditions to continue likely through the end of october. upper
air observations reveal a large upper level ridge building over
the central conus this morning; as it gradually continues to
build, the ridge will shift eastward in the coming days. an
omega block pattern is likely to setup with sinking air
underneath the ridge yielding lots of sun, mild temperatures,
and light winds. with an expansive area of surface high pressure
also expected to anchor over the eastern us, this pattern will
likely remain through the weekend into early next week. expect
several days of rinse and repeat weather with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s and lows in the low to mid 40s each day.

very few changes were made to the forecast today as a persistence
forecast was largely utilized through early next week. no rainfall
is expected over the next 7 days; it is starting to become evident
that while a cold front may move through around next tuesday, there
will not be sufficient forcing and moisture available for any
rainfall with it. towards the middle of next week, temperature
generally trend towards normal with highs around 60 degrees as
the aforementioned synoptic pattern breaks down.

with the stagnant pattern locked in place, clear skies, and light
flow will likely yield some patchy dense fog overnight into early
friday morning. best chances for fog will likely be northeast of
fort wayne, in. much like the past few nights, the best timeframe
for dense fog will be between 3 am to 10 am edt friday, with the
lowest visibilities around daybreak. a sps or dense fog advisory may
be needed overnight depending on trends and where any fog
develops.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1239 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

no flight concerns anticipated with any threat of stratus/fog
overnight looking to remain to the east/north of kfwa and well
away from ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
790
fxus63 kdtx 221706
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
106 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for dense fog development each of the
daybreak periods friday through monday. any fog that will develop
is expected to dissipate or lift by 10 am.

- mild and dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure drifts toward quebec tonight, causing winds to veer
from north to southeast by friday morning. this draws the pool of
low level moisture currently to our north and east into the local
airspace late tonight into friday morning. a very dry airmass aloft
and calm east winds at the surface affords efficient radiative
cooling potential overnight with added moisture from the lakes. the
greatest vsby restrictions (possibly falling below 1/4 sm) are
expected across the saginaw valley downwind of saginaw bay. the
favorable setup keeps fog and/or low stratus around through mid-
morning before diurnal mixing leads to clearing skies by mid-day.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 am edt thu oct 22 2026

discussion...

longwave ridging over the central plains will strengthen and expand
into the great lakes through saturday in response to a closed low
near the four corners opening up across the rockies with and
interaction with additional upper level disturbances/troughing that
builds in across the pacific northwest. this will reinforce high
pressure across the great lakes resulting in persistence forecast to
end the week. highs will again push into the upper 60s today,
possibly peaking around 70 under mostly sunny skies. clear skies and
light winds overnight will likely lead to patchy or areas of fog,
possibly dense, given the supplementation of shallow low-level
moisture under the light northeast flow. fog likely expands from the
thumb and tri- cities before pushing into the interior of se mi
before lifting by daybreak. temperatures then return back into the
mid 60s for a high under sunny skies. outside of radiational fog
concerns in the mornings, above normal temperatures under mostly
clear skies persists into the weekend.

the upper level ridge will flatten monday into tuesday over the
great lakes with a cold front pushing over the state. limited
moisture under a weaker temperature gradient will not bring any
concrete rain chances thus pop values will remain sub 15%, however,
flattening of the upper-level will direct better moisture and cloud
coverage downstream. temperatures moderate back towards seasonal
normals through at least the early week period. ml-models are much
more progressive with the forecasted pacific trough by the middle of
next week relative to the deterministic counterparts, which would
again bring about above normal temperatures by the middle of next
week if they verify, as the warmer air across the plains streams
into the great lakes.

marine...

high pressure builds into the great lakes today behind a departing
weak surface trough. northeast wind becomes established this
afternoon, peaking around 10 to 15 kt. light flow veers around to
southeast on friday, then becomes more southerly on saturday as the
center of high pressure sinks southward from quebec toward new
england. a slight uptick in wind speeds will be possible this
weekend in advance of the next weak trough set to arrive from the
northwest.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...am
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.