Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
658
fxus61 kcle 311109
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
709 am edt sun may 31 2026

.what has changed...
the ongoing forecast remains fair weather and quiet with no
impactful changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) the forecast will remain dry with temperatures gradually
warming up through the middle and end of next week.

2) scattered showers and thunderstorms expected next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a series of high pressures move in from the north across the
great lakes region through wednesday before high pressure
departs to the southeast and off the atlantic coast towards the
end of the week. highs tend to be in the 70s, with temperatures
warming into the 80s thursday onward on the backside of the
departing high. daily afternoon lake breeze through thursday
will likely keep the lakeshore area a bit cooler.

key message 2...
the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns over the
weekend, with highest pops of around 30-50% as low pressure and
associated cold front moves across the area. early indications
in model data point towards towards little to no threat of
severe weather and flooding at this time.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with vfr to persist
through the taf period. winds will shift towards the north
behind a lake breeze in the early to mid-afternoon, 7 to 10
knots, mainly along and east of the i-71 corridor. otherwise,
winds will be generally light and variable.

outlook...vfr expected through thursday.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the upcoming
week as high pressure persists across the region. could see a
few brief periods of 2 to perhaps 3-foot waves with daily lake
breezes expected, particularly in the late afternoon. otherwise,
overall flow will generally remain light.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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727
fxus63 kiwx 311032
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
632 am edt sun may 31 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather will persist through the middle of
next week.

- trending warmer by thursday and friday with highs well into
the 80s.

- chances (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms friday
afternoon into saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 102 am edt sun may 31 2026

stagnant, pleasant pattern remains in control into mid week as
we await the breakdown of an omega block to our west. until
then, afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with
overnight lows in the 50s. the upper level pattern finally
begins to break down late in the week, allowing for a better
influx of both low level temps and moisture. 80s will return
thursday and into the weekend, although temperature variations
are likely as the increasing moisture and instability will
result in chances for showers and storms.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 622 am edt sun may 31 2026

easterly winds will persist with vfr conditions through the
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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098
fxus63 kdtx 310952
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
552 am edt sun may 31 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with lots of sunshine through the middle of the
upcoming week.

- seasonable conditions early this week becoming much warmer and
humid by friday.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure influence maintains favorable aviation conditions today
and tonight with light gradient winds veering from ne to wnw.
diurnal cumulus response should be muted given ambient dryness, but
some cloud fraction aloft could glance over the terminals at times,
above 20 kft agl. lake breeze could keep a se component to flow at
the detroit terminals, before winds trend toward calm overnight at
all taf sites.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through sunday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 340 am edt sun may 31 2026

discussion...

the much ballyhooed upper level blocking pattern remains in place
over central north america and will continue to hold off any
moisture return over the great lakes through the middle of the
upcoming week. a thinning of the omega block is forecasted on monday
as deep upper level trough will encroach on southeast michigan from
the north and east. however, heights will rebound quickly for the
middle of the week as the large amplitude ridge nudges eastward and
eventually takes on more of a rex block configuration. to put this
ridging event into perspective, the naefs data supports a high end
to climatological extreme event with, the heights (tue-wed) at all
of the levels, 1000-850-700-500mb at the 99.5 percentile. it isn`t
the surface anticyclone or mslp that has been unprecedented its been
the depth of the anticyclone that has persisted and encapsulated the
western great lakes. so, as this ridge finally folds over the
region, midlevel temperatures climb significantly resulting in
daytime highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal thursday through
sunday.

the main weather narrative for today through tuesday is extremely
comfortable weather with low humidity and highs in the middle to
upper 70s. humidity likely becomes noticeable late thursday and
friday with dewpoints climbing towards 60 degrees. uncertainty
exists with the next chance for meaningful precipitation chances as
there is some timing difference with regards to the reestablishment
of zonal flow over the great lakes. the latest forecast brings
chance pops into the area late friday and for next weekend.

marine...

light and variable winds expected today as high pressure settles
overhead, ensuring another day of dry weather. a weak cold front
then settles across the eastern great lakes tonight, reorganizing
flow out of the northeast. gusts may briefly touch 25 knots monday
afternoon over saginaw bay where flow aligns with the fetch of the
bay, but should hold below 20 knots elsewhere. extended stretch of
dry weather then persists through at least mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...cb
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.