Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 am edt tue may 26 2026

.what has changed...
there are no major changes as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure remains over the region with dry weather and
seasonable temperatures for the majority of the week. there is a
low chance of showers on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure remains across the region this morning and will
slowly build off to the east throughout the day into early
wednesday. some patchy fog is possible along the lake shore and
in north-central and northwestern ohio through mid-morning.

a weak low pressure system will push northward into the ohio
river valley on wednesday that will bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. this will mainly be confined to the area
south of us 30, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible to the north. this will be dependent on how much of the
mid to low level dry air erodes away throughout the day. a cold
front will push southward across the region wednesday afternoon
and evening though expecting it to be dry along and behind the
front. high pressure builds in from the north on thursday and
will persist through the weekend as upper level ridging builds
from the west.

temperatures will gradually increase through wednesday with
highs into the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows into the
upper 50s to low 60s. behind the cold front, high temperatures
will drop down into the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
patchy areas of fog will quickly burn off this morning by 13z.
vfr conditions are expect today into this evening. some light
fog of 3sm to 5sm may be possible again late tonight into early
wednesday morning. winds will be somewhat light and variable
during this taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers in central ohio on
wednesday.

&&

.marine...
overall marine weather will be fairly quiet on lake erie this
week. ther are some areas of dense fog on the central and
eastern nearshore waters of the lake this morning. this marine
layer fog should burn off quickly after sunrise this morning. a
weak area of pressure is over lake erie today. winds will be
northerly to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots today through
wednesday. a cold front will push southward across the lake late
wednesday. slightly stronger winds from the north to northeast
5-15 knots are expected wednesday night and thursday. winds will
become light and variable again by friday. waves will generally
be 1 to 2 feet or less this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1213 pm edt tue may 26 2026

.key messages...

- warm with highs generally in the low 80s through wednesday,
then in the mid to upper 70s thursday through this weekend.

- low chance for showers and isolated storms on wednesday
(10-40%, mainly south of us 30), dry conditions are favored
through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 325 am edt tue may 26 2026

at this time, still watching our eastern third of the cwa for
any development of mist/fog. winds have been calm which is
likely mitigating the needed mixing to have any notable mist/fog
development. this also should keep condensation near surface
leading to patches of ground fog and direct dew deposition
instead. also, high clouds are streaming northward from a
shortwave currently centered over southern illinois which could
help reduce the amount of radiational cooling.

otherwise, shaping up to be a fairly quiet stretch weather-wise
over the next several days. at this time the only potential for
precipitation will be late tonight through wednesday afternoon
with the aforementioned shortwave over southern il that will
move eastward and just brush the southern portion of our area
with a few rain showers and even a few rumbles of thunder
especially in the afternoon. this threat of precipitation should
stay south of us-30 and the better chances will be south of
us-24. now at the same time a trough swinging southeast over
eastern ontario canada and the eastern great lakes will bring
fairly low chances of a shower/thunderstorm over our far
northeastern michigan and ohio counties late wednesday.

from thursday onward, dry conditions and near to slightly above
normal temperatures (highs in the 70s) will be in store across
the region as a blocky omega pattern develops over central north
america. the next question will be when does this block start to
break down and guidance is likely to push for a more
progressive outcome even though blocks can set up longer than
the models expect it to. for now in the longer term dry weather
is a likely bet.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1210 pm edt tue may 26 2026

high pressure over eastern indiana remains largely in control of
weather conditions during this taf period. high clouds have cast
over both sites this afternoon associated with a weak upper-
level disturbance lifting through the mid-mississippi valley.
late in the taf period, cannot completely rule out
-shra at kfwa, but a stout mid-level dry layer and
meager/disjointed forcing may preclude any measurable rainfall.

wind at or below 5kts through the taf period thanks to high
pressure. opted to remove 6sm br from kfwa due to high clouds
and a weaker inversion than previous nights.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert from 11 pm this evening to 11 pm cdt
wednesday for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1252 pm edt tue may 26 2026

.key messages...

- summer-like temperatures expected through wednesday. these
conditions will bring a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late
wednesday.

- a return to more seasonable temperatures thursday through next
weekend. no rain currently expected during this time.

&&

.aviation...

expect primarily high clouds around this afternoon and evening with
southwest winds. winds will be strongest at mbs, where gusts to 20
knots are expected. a dry cold front will sink south tonight,
resulting in light northerly or variable winds into wednesday. the
front is forecast to stall near the southern michigan border
tomorrow, which could serve as the focus for a few showers/isolated
thunderstorms late in the day.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance of a thunderstorm late tomorrow
afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 am edt tue may 26 2026

discussion...

light southeasterly flow off lake erie late tonight has been enough
to pool moisture across monroe and southern metro detroit to
generate areas of dense fog. this fog will hold through daybreak
before diurnal heating dissipates it latter half of the morning.

similar setup today as yesterday as the region remains under the
influence of high pressure centered near lake erie. continuing warm
advection nudges 850mb temps up a few degrees compared to memorial
day supporting widespread low to mid 80 highs. mid-level flow around
the high keeps the main advection directed toward central mi
allowing temps across the saginaw valley into the western thumb to
make a run into the upper 80s.

a front sagging out of the northern great lakes eventually begins to
drop through the northern cwa (north of i-69) as a shallow backdoor
cold front late tuesday night-early wednesday. the weak, shallow
nature of the initial boundary brings little fanfare with its
arrival, with only a shift to light north-northeasterly winds being
the main change. this looks to change by late afternoon-evening as a
compact shortwave drops through the western/central great lakes
driving the primary frontal slope into the area. timing window
favors areas south of m-59 to see at least a few hundred j/kg of
mlcape by fropa offering a shot at widely scattered showers/isolated
thunder. for areas north, earlier arrival lends to lesser diurnal
instability availability and more isolated rain chances.

frontal passage ushers in a cooler, albeit more seasonably average
airmass to close out the week. broad northern ontario high pressure
builds across the central great lakes daytime thursday and slowly
sinks towards the ohio valley by the weekend. resultant late week
conditions will be characterized by highs in the 70s, lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s, and dry conditions.

marine...

high pressure over the region is drifting southward and will settle
across the southern great lakes and ohio valley today. a cold front
will be dropping southward through lake superior early in the day
before reaching central lake huron this evening when it could touch
off a few showers and thunderstorms. it will continue southward
tonight into wednesday passing through lake erie wednesday
afternoon. another area of high pressure builds into the region
behind the front and will lead to varying winds throughout the end
of the week. there may be periods with enhanced onshore northeast
winds, which may elevate wave activity in nearshore zones at times.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...kdk
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.