Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
383
fxus61 kcle 282308
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
708 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes made to the forecast at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) low rain chances remain for eastern areas tonight before
more widespread rain enters for wednesday.

2) a cool weather pattern will take hold for the end of the week
into the weekend with low confidence and low coverage rain
chances and the potential for frost/freeze.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front continues crossing the forecast area this
afternoon and will exit this evening. along and ahead of the
front, there is a more robust, diurnally-driven cumulus field
that has occasionally overachieved into spotty showers. with
some areas of ne oh and nw pa reaching the upper 60s to lower
70s, there could be some scattered rain development until the
front passes and will keep a 20-40% pop over the next couple of
hours. for tonight into wednesday, a low pressure system will
develop over the southern us and move northeast along the cold
front and into the region. widespread showers are expected with
this system and have maintained categorical pops for much of the
area. rain should generally be one inch or less and does not
pose a significant flooding threat at this time. the forecast
area will be on the cold side of the low and cold front and
thunderstorm chances are low and are favored to the east.

key message 2...
the pattern for thursday and beyond will be a cool, spring
pattern with a closed upper low over the great lakes region and
eastern canada through the weekend. this system will allow for
temperatures to remain below normal. some waves of energy with
this low will move through the region and could spark some
isolated rain chances but there is low confidence in potential
and coverage at this time. the cooler temperatures across the
region with the upper low will allow for lows in the 30s and
this could allow for some frost/freeze chances nightly. true
frost chances could be limited with clouds across the region but
temperatures dipping into the lower 30s would present the freeze
opportunity for some folks.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are expected this evening but mvfr ceilings will
move in by wednesday morning. lower end mvfr to ifr ceilings and
conditions are expected later wednesday morning through
wednesday afternoon. widespread rain showers are expected to
move in wednesday morning through the afternoon with 2sm to 5sm
visibilities. winds will start out northwesterly 5 to 10 knots
this evening. winds will shift around to the north and northeast
on wednesday 5 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers possible on thursday
night/friday morning.

&&

.marine...
winds and waves across lake erie have continued to subside this
afternoon into the evening and drop below small craft criteria.
overnight, winds will become light at less than 10 knots across the
lake and veer to be out of the north. by tomorrow evening, winds
will increase slightly to 10-15 knots out of the north-northwest.
waves will build as a response to around 3 feet in the near shore
with the on shore winds. through the end of the week, quiet marine
conditions are expected with winds varying between north to
northwest at 5-10 knots and waves being less than 3 feet. over the
weekend, winds should back to be out of the west at 10-20 knots as
high pressure moves to the south of the region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
115
fxus63 kiwx 290119
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
919 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

.key messages...

- cooler wednesday through saturday with highs in the 50s to
around 60 degrees.

- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.
the highest potential for freezing conditions will be friday
night into saturday morning.

- light rain possible sunday night through tuesday. additional
flooding from this rain not expected.

&&

.update...
issued at 915 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

upstream water vapor imagery this evening depicts a couple of
short waves of interest heading into late tonight/wednesday.
these disturbances will shift from corn belt to the southern
great lakes by daybreak as a mid/upper jet streak cutting
through base of the upper trough induces some weak cyclogenesis
across the ohio valley. this evolution will allow a low level
trough axis and accompanying low level fgen axis to reach the
i-69 corridor late tonight into early wednesday morning. likely
pops were maintained across south/southeast portions of the area
following this forcing and where some slightly better low level
moisture should exist. a secondary maximum in rain shower
coverage is possible for a brief time across northwest indiana
late tonight as the lead ia short wave allows a stronger mid
level front/mid level fgen axis to push across the southern
great lakes. moisture will be more limited with this feature,
but northwest portions of the forecast area should be more
favorable aligned with stronger upper level vort advection. some
upward adjustment to pops may be needed for a brief time in the
northwest, but rainfall amounts will be quite light. a lull in
rain showers is expected mid/late morning wednesday with
possibility of some isolated/scattered shower redevelopment on
wednesday afternoon given large scale cyclonic flow and very
weak sfc based instability.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 149 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

a series of mid & upper-level disturbances will bring one more
chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the region
from late tonight through wednesday. models are in good agreement
with most areas seeing at least measurable precipitation, although
the best chance (>50%) of at least 0.25 inch appears to be focused
mainly along/south of us-24 per the latest href suite. not expecting
this additional rainfall to result in any increase to ongoing hydro
concerns. otherwise, precipitation chances appear to be fairly low
through the remainder of the week, though a light shower or two may
be possible at times with a few passing waves if sufficient moisture
is present. general troughiness aloft will keep temperatures on the
cooler side for some time, with a threat for frost over the next few
days starting wednesday night. the best chance for a possible freeze
currently looks to be friday night into saturday morning, but
overall confidence in a hard freeze is low at this time.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 729 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

an overall relatively low impact aviation weather period with
main focuses on rain chances late tonight into wednesday am
along with potential of some mvfr cigs.

northern indiana is positioned in somewhat of a col
region between pressure systems tonight. an upstream mid/upper
level short wave will provide large scale forcing for ascent
across the southern great lakes late tonight while a southward
displaced polar jet noses into mid ms valley. this will induce
some weak cyclogenesis across the ohio river valley overnight
into wed am. the induced low level flow from weak cyclogenesis
will allow for some enhancement to low-mid level frontogenesis
forcing overnight into wednesday morning. kfwa should be a bit
southward displaced from stronger upper forcing across the
southern great lakes but better aligned with better moisture and
low level frontogenesis while ksbn should have more marginal
low level moisture but be positioned in closer proximity to a
stronger mid level frontogenesis axis and vorticity advection
from upstream trough. will continue to carry prob30/tempo
mentions for showers later tonight into early wednesday. cannot
completely discount an isolated rumble of thunder given very
weak elevated instability, but not enough confidence in
occurrence/coverage to warrant taf mention at this time. will
continue with mention of mvfr cigs above 2k feet late tonight
into wed am before any lingering mvfr cigs likely improve to vfr
in the afternoon as drier low level air advects into the
region.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...hammer
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
937
fxus63 kdtx 282318
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
718 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

.key messages...

- rain shower chances return wednesday morning to early afternoon.

- much colder air arrives by late week and holds through the weekend
resulting in frost/freezing potential.

&&

.aviation...

inbound dry air and peak boundary layer mixing made good progress on
decreasing low clouds during late afternoon into early this evening.
this continues to support vfr clear to scattered coverage while the
surface cold front stalls in the ohio valley and another wave of low
pressure tracks along it later tonight. the frontal zone is shallow
and slopes back into southern lower mi around the 700 mb level which
becomes increasingly activated by vfr clouds and clusters of rain
showers as the mid level wave moves in from the mo valley. prospects
for mvfr ceiling are greater early in the morning when shower
coverage peaks and low level wind turns ne ahead of the ohio valley
surface low. widely scattered showers linger in the afternoon with
low predictability at the terminals while lower range vfr ceiling
holds into wednesday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this evening. moderate late
tonight. high wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 247 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

discussion...

localized mid-upper level positively tilted trough axis currently
lifting in quebec has allowed for a temporary bout of 1000-500mb
geopotential height rises over southeast michigan this afternoon.
plan view perspective of saturation on isentropic surfaces supports
steeper isentropic downglide and greater absolute dry air advection
occuring after 18z. with the drier air and mature boundary layer
late expectations are for a temporary clearing trend this evening.
temperatures should quickly fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
the late evening.

combination of approaching composite trough axis with emerging left
exit region dynamics off of southern stream jet streak will provide
synoptic scale support for ohio river valley low pressure system
late tonight and wednesday. while a signal exists in the moisture
progs for saturation and baroclinic leafing within the 850-500mb
layer extending up into southeast michigan, no significant
frontogenesis is progged locally across southeast michigan. as a
result, this is expected to be a low qpf event with perhaps a tenth
or two possible south of detroit. no big changes are anticipated to
the gridded forecast which has pops at 40--60% chance mainly between
08-18z.

a large upper level closed low pressure system and troughing is
forecasted to take residence and persist over areas from lake
superior northward to quebec and james bay from thursday through at
least the end of the period monday. the coldest stretch is
anticipated friday and saturday with 850mb temperatures of -6 to -
7c. frost and freeze headlines will at least need to be considered
wednesday through saturday nights with lows expected to be in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. persistent troughing will bring steep
midlevel lapse rates and a good pattern for afternoon precipitation
chances. most days will see a chance of rain, however, thursday
afternoon could see a few wet snowflakes across the thumb region as
the absolute vorticity maximum and cold air aloft emerges out on lake
huron.

marine...

exiting surface low pressure continues across james bay into
northern quebec tonight, causing the pressure gradient to steadily
relax. this eventually leads to weaker winds, veering
anticyclonically toward the north. remaining small craft advisory
should expire on-schedule as winds/waves respond to decreasing flow
into the evening hours. a more diffuse surface pressure field
emerges on wednesday as the central great lakes becomes positioned
between several weak surface high pressure centers to the west. mid-
level troughing likely persists overhead on wednesday with a weak
surface reflection lifting through the ohio valley. this lends
potential for periods of light showers, but a lack of instability
precludes any thunderstorm concerns. water-level winds generally
hold northwesterly through the rest of the workweek with additional
chances for weakly forced light precipitation. high pressure then
attempts to build in from central canada/conus over the weekend. low
predictability exists in the large-scale pattern evolution as
eastern canada low pressure retrogrades toward the great lakes. no
additional marine headlines are expected through saturday given
latest wind/wave trends.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...cb
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.