Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
396
fxus61 kcle 161903
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
303 pm edt fri oct 16 2026

.what has changed...
a freeze watch has been issued for most of the forecast area for
late saturday night into sunday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain and gusty winds continue into saturday in the wake of a cold
front.

2) dry conditions with colder air behind the front as high pressure
builds into the region. a freeze watch has been issued saturday
night into sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
areawide rain showers and gusty winds 25-30 mph continue through
this afternoon and evening as a surface trough remains draped
across the region. as the trough continues to sink south across
northern ohio, rain showers will transition into lake effect
rain downwind of lake erie and lake huron tonight into early
saturday morning. given the lake huron connection, the primary
area of lake effect rain showers will remain situated between
the i-71 and i-77 corridors. any remaining gusty winds will
gradually diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure
gradually builds into the region.


key message 2...
aforementioned high pressure will build into the area from the
west this weekend leading to a period of dry but cold
conditions. effective radiative cooling under the high on
saturday night will lead to widespread low temperatures in the
low to mid 30s and possibly the upper 20s in some locations. a
freeze watch has been issued for nearly all zones in the
forecast area with the exception of lake county and the
lakeshore zones of ashtabula and erie county pa where lows may
be a bit warmer given the proximity to the relatively warmer
waters of lake erie. temperatures will begin to moderate into
early next week as high pressure builds to the east of the
region.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
areawide rain showers is expected to continue through the rest
of the day today, before the broader rain shield exits to the
east by this evening. rain will mainly consist of 4-6+ sm but
some heavier showers could briefly produce visibility down to
1-2sm at times. mainly mvfr ceilings are expected, though
patchy ifr ceilings are possible.

by late this evening into early tonight, lake effect rain
showers are expected across portions of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. there will be one or two primary bands
near kcle/kmfd and then into northwest pennsylvania.

high pressure builds in late tonight into saturday, with skies
becoming mostly sunny through the day.

northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots become
north this evening, and then gradually diminish through the day
saturday.

outlook...mainly vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions continue under the surface trough as
west to northwest winds remain between 25-30 knots and wave
heights up to 6-9 feet. small craft advisories remain in effect
across the entire lake saturday late morning and early
afternoon. north winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 knots
saturday night into sunday with wave heights subsiding to 3 feet
or less under high pressure. light winds of 10 knots or less
are expected sunday into the middle of next week as high
pressure remains in control.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze watch from late saturday night through sunday morning
for ohz003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...freeze watch from late saturday night through sunday morning
for paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt saturday for lez142-143-
149.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt saturday for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
471
fxus63 kiwx 161924
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
324 pm edt fri oct 16 2026

.key messages...

- gusty winds as high as 25 to 35 mph can be expected late this afternoon
into early this evening (slightly higher gusts possible near
lake michigan shoreline briefly).

- patchy frost possible tonight for south central lower michigan into
portions of northern indiana. widespread frost is expected
saturday night into sunday morning with a potential of
temperatures dropping to the freezing mark, especially east of
interstate 69.

- after the below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures
rebound back above normal for much of next work week with dry
weather expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt fri oct 16 2026

showers associated with some strong low/mid level frontogenesis
forcing will continue to exit northwest ohio the remainder
afternoon. the primary focus for additional rainfall will remain
back across northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan where
secondary surface trough associated with strong positively tilted
upper trough is augmenting lake effect rain showers. the focus for
these lake effect/enhanced rain showers will shift to northwest
indiana this evening as low level winds veer northerly behind the
secondary sfc trough. a wind advisory remains in effect through this
evening for laporte and berrien counties, although the window for 35
mph plus gusts may be confined to a 20 to 23z timeframe.
boundary layer mixing may be tempered a bit by the very moist
profiles in place, and thus confidence is beginning to diminish
somewhat in realizing advisory level winds, particularly after
00z as a lake-induced thermal trough is likely to sharpen and
weaken the low level height gradient. at this time will continue
the wind advisory and will defer to next shift to monitor for
possible cancellation depending on how trends evolve. lake
effect rain showers may persist into the early overnight hours
across northwest indiana as thermal troughing response over
southern lake michigan matures this evening.

the positively tilted nature of the upper trough should allow for
synoptic scale mid level subsidence to build in quickly later
this evening and overnight resulting in expected diminishing
cloud trend outside of lingering lake effect. low levels should
remain well mixed into the early evening hours with some better
potential of decoupling overnight. this introduces the risk of
some patchy frost development and temperatures dropping into
the low-mid 30s tonight. the best chance of frost formation
still appears to be across much of southern lower michigan into
portions of north central indiana situated between more delayed
cloud cover decrease in the west with lake effect, and slightly
better mixing persisting east of i-69 into the overnight.

quiet weather is expected on sunday as the southern great lakes and
ohio valley will be positioned downstream of broad longwave ridge
axis across central conus allowing for extended synoptic scale
subsidence. sfc anticyclone will overspread the region late
saturday afternoon into saturday evening with some lighter
southwest return flow setting up across the western great lakes
by sunday morning. frost/freeze potential will need to be
considered again for this period. some minor modification of low
level thermal trough is expected saturday but mainly clear
skies and light winds should allow for good radiational cooling
saturday night and a potential of temperatures dropping to the
freezing mark. best chances based on timing of the high pressure
still appear to be east of i-69 where a freeze watch has been
issued. some combination of frost advisories and/or freeze
warnings will likely be needed saturday night.

upper flow pattern will become more stagnant and blocked in
nature for much of next week with little overall progression in
mean positioning of central conus ridge. gradual day to day
moderation and max temperatures in upper 60s to lower 70s and
dry conditions will prevail for much of next week. cannot
completely rule out some patchy frost concerns sunday and monday
nights, but this is a low confidence item at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 144 pm edt fri oct 16 2026

998mb low is over the interior northeast, taking its trailing
cloud layer with it. below, lake enhanced stratus lingers along
with plenty of lake effect rain showers. model guidance suggests,
and water vapor indicates, a thermal trough is working its way
south of lake michigan which has resulted in an uptick in lake
effect activity. as a result, a fairly steady period of showers
is anticipated at ksbn in the near-term, with this activity
arriving soon after to kfwa.

guidance is in fair agreement that lake effect activity
dissipates near or beyond 00z as nne flow becomes dominant.
mvfr ceilings gradually scatter out along with decreasing wind
speeds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 4 am to 9 am edt saturday for inz005>009-
014-017-104-116-204-216.
freeze watch from late saturday night through sunday morning
for inz006>009-017-018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
wind advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for inz103-203.
oh...freeze watch from late saturday night through sunday morning
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...frost advisory from 4 am to 9 am edt saturday for miz078>081.
wind advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for miz177-277.
marine...gale warning until 2 am edt saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
970
fxus63 kdtx 161901
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
301 pm edt fri oct 16 2026

.key messages...

- chance of showers with gusty northwest winds this evening.

- turning colder tonight with low temperatures saturday morning
reaching the low to mid 30s. this will lead to some areas of frost.

- cooler conditions exist saturday, then turning warmer sunday into
next week. no rain expected through this time.

&&

.discussion...

high amplitude longwave trough on pace to pivot across the region
this evening. strong cold front attendant to the main height fall
center noted accelerating southeast across the local area this
afternoon. a few pockets of showers will continue to emerge over the
next several hours as the frontal slope and trailing cold air
advection engage sufficient resident moisture depth. improvement in
mixing depth within the immediate wake of this front will also
provide a greater window for gusts to exceed 30 mph during the
evening hours, particularly across the northern thumb. a secondary
brief lake effect response likely off lake huron, as a short window
for meaningful shower production occurs within a zone of convergence
along the eastern thumb through at least the first half of the night
before low level flow veers sufficiently to direct activity
offshore. progressive clearing trend through the back half of the
night as the notably colder/drier post-frontal environment gains
traction with time. latest nbm guidance offers a general spread in
projected low temperature saturday morning ranging from sub-freezing
in the saginaw valley to mid 30s portions of metro detroit and near
the immediate shoreline locations. while a persistent low level
gradient may prove more detrimental at times for frost formation, in
collaboration with neighboring offices still operating within the
end of the growing season, will elect to highlight appropriate
frost/freeze headlines based on projected low temperature.

seasonably cold airmass entrenched to start the weekend period,
marked but sub-freezing temperatures at 850 mb. surface ridging in
control beneath prevailing mid level northwest flow affords deep
layer dry and stable conditions, translating into a high degree of
insolation potential. despite this, existing thermal profile will
simply support highs of lower 50s - or a solid 10 degrees below
average. light winds emerging from the southwest saturday night as
the surface ridge slips east. this may offer some limitation to
radiational cooling potential, but with minimum temps sunday morning
still arriving in the mid 30s given the magnitude of the existing
colder profile. this will afford some areas of frost. ensuing
warming trend starting sunday as existing low level southwest flow
establish a pattern of warm air advection beneath a building upper
height field. the strength of the advective process will bring
temperatures back closer to average for mid october.

a high magnitude deep layer dry and stable environment will exist
through much of the upcoming work week, as conditions remain
governed by low and mid level ridging. this ensures precipitation
free conditions during this time. moderating thermal profile
magnified by existing upper ridging will lend to above average
temperatures throughout this period. highs mid 60s to around 70
degrees, with minimum temps in the 40s.

&&

.marine...

strong cold advection is ongoing this afternoon as low pressure
quickly departs to the east. as the depth of cold air increases over
the warm lakes, increasing instability and the strengthening
northerly wind field will allow stronger gusts to reach the surface
through this evening. model guidance is still in line with max gusts
on the order of 35 to 40 kt over lake huron, especially over the
southern basin where fetch is maximized. confidence has increased to
see a period of marginal gales over lake st. clair as well, and the
gale warning has been expanded to include lake st. clair as well as
all of lake huron. a small craft advisory remains in effect for
western lake erie. wind magnitude begins to subside after midnight
and continues to weaken through saturday morning as a ridge of high
pressure extends in from the midwest. the ridge then quickly shifts
into the ohio valley, pairing with a deep low over hudson bay to
produce a strong wsw pressure gradient over the local area late
saturday into sunday. sunday afternoon remains a target for
potential gusts to 35 kt gales over saginaw bay and central lake
huron. will allow current headlines to expire before issuing any
additional headlines for this period. the high pressure then
gradually expands northward to bring more tranquil marine conditions
early next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 225 pm edt fri oct 16 2026

aviation...

nuanced aviation forecast this afternoon given the highly variable
environment as it relates to ceilings, gusts, and shower potential.
during this on-going lull, winds have trended weaker with a distinct
absence in gusts, but this should be temporary as the secondary cold
front makes further inroads this evening. the upstream cold advection
steepens temperature profiles and promotes renewed mixing, favoring
gusts in excess of 25 knots, at times. gradient winds also respond
accordingly, both in increased magnitude and veered directionality,
eventually becoming northerly. could see brief heavier rainfall
rates with the shower activity positioned along the front, before
drier air eventually fills in behind the boundary. lake moisture
flux complicates the drying/clearing rate, but should eventually see
an aggressive decrease in cloud coverage overnight to reach a skc
condition. gusts also drop-off nocturnally as stabilization occurs
in tandem with the departure of the stronger low-level wind field,
while prevailing speeds appear slightly slower to respond. high
pressure builds rapidly from the plains to appalachia on saturday
ensuring a low cloud fraction, weaker winds, and a shift back to wsw
flow.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast today or tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet today and through the
first half of tonight.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded today.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning from 3 am to 8 am edt saturday for miz047-048-053-
054-060>062.

frost advisory from 3 am to 8 am edt saturday for miz049-055-063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......tf
aviation.....kgk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.