Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 052335
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing confidence for accumulating snowfall in
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania on monday night with
increasing potential for a couple inches of snow in the higher
elevations of erie county, pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) a cold pattern will continue across the region through tuesday
with scattered precipitation chances and below normal temperatures.
some snow is possible tonight, but a more clear transition to snow
is expected on monday evening with light snowfall accumulation
expected in ne oh and nw pa.

2) the pattern will shift in the middle of the week with
temperatures returning to normal. dry weather is expected on
wednesday and most of thursday. rain chances may return late in the
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
overall, conditions will be overcast and cool through this
evening with a couple isolated showers that may ripple through
with a surface trough near the area. high pressure will build
from the southwest tonight and allow for a window of dry
weather. temperatures will fall into the 30s with some cold air
advection on the northeast side of the surface high and elevated
winds will have wind chills in the 20s. for monday, an upper
trough will move through the region with a weak surface low and
cold front moving southeast through the forecast area. some rain
showers will be possible, especially in the eastern half of the
forecast area. with broader lift aloft, cold advection over a
warming lake erie, and upslope components in the hills of ne oh
and pa, expecting rain to persist, eventually transitioning to
snow in this region. have continued to maintain pops higher than
the nbm with a broad area of 50%+. not unreasonable to see a
couple tenths of qpf in this region and having accumulating
snowfall. continuing a general theme of 1-3" but some locations
in erie county, pa may try to overachieve if snow showers can
persist. given recent warmth and decreasing nighttime hours,
surface/pavement temperatures will need to fall before
accumulations start becoming impactful and the first half inch
to inch of snow may melt off. lows on monday night will be in
the 20s with wind chills in the teens.


key message 2...
a cold high pressure system enters on tuesday, drying out the
region. this system will shift east for wednesday, keeping dry
conditions in place but allowing temperatures to recover into
the 50s. the next system continues a slowing trend and thursday
is starting to look like a dry day with temperatures above
normal in the mid-to-upper 60s. the next system will enter for
friday and saturday, bringing the next areawide chance of rain.
there could be some potential for storms at the end of the week,
but there is still time to sort out some of those details.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
generally expect broken ceilings between 3500 and 5000 ft agl
for the first couple of hours of the taf period, but a period
of clearing is likely later this evening into the overnight
hours. an area of showers will move east/southeast into the
western part of the local area at about 08z monday before
reaching eastern terminals by 12-13z. largely expect rain at
most terminals, but a rain/snow mix is more likely at keri/ktol.
expect ceilings to drop to mvfr with periods of non-vfr
visibilities in precipitation, especially in locations that
receive a rain/snow mix. there will probably be a lull in precip
for a couple of hours before scattered diurnal showers develop
monday afternoon into monday evening. opted for vcsh at all
terminals east of ktol/kfdy since confidence in any showers
moving directly over terminals is too low to put in
prevailing/tempo groups for precipitation. ceilings may recover
to vfr outside of ne oh/nw pa on monday afternoon.

winds will be out of the west/northwest at around 10 knots for
the first couple of hours of the taf period before diminishing
below 10 knots and becoming more southwesterly overnight. winds
will once again shift to the west/northwest and increase to 10
to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots on monday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr likely monday night into tuesday morning in
rain and/or snow showers, particularly across the snowbelt.
non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers thursday night into
friday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will persist across lake erie into this
evening with west winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 6 feet.
conditions will briefly improve tonight into monday as winds
diminish, though rough conditions may return again monday night into
tuesday as northwest flow of 20 knots arrives across the lake.
another small craft advisory will be needed during this timeframe. a
longer stretch of quieter marine conditions will arrive on wednesday
as high pressure builds across the region. offshore flow will return
across lake erie on thursday into friday, 15 to 25 knots, though
odds of a small craft advisory are low at this time with the highest
winds located in the open waters.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...15
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 052240
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

.key messages...

- notably colder to begin the week. tuesday morning will see
morning lows in the 20s with highs only in the 40s.

- there is a 20-30% chance of light rain showers late tonight
through the monday morning commute.

- becoming warm and spring-like wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 211 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

clouds are gradually clearing from west to east as yesterday`s cold
front tracks east. increasing clouds tonight as a shortwave
drops in from minnesota. while dew points are only in the
upper-20s, temperatures falling tonight into the 30s will help
narrow the gap, while pacific moisture advection and ample
forcing aides in a quick moistening of the profile. a cold
column could bring a couple of snow flakes. otherwise, a quick
dose of rain late tonight through the morning commute from west
to east is expected.

for the remainder of monday, the main vorticity maximum lies across
central michigan, likely keeping any lingering precipitation
north of our forecast area. cold high pressure sets up over the
great lakes monday night when lows will tumble well into the
20s; our coldest night of the week. the michigan state extension
office indicates a few fruit varieties could be susceptible to
these lows in the mid- 20s. back to 1990, our median last
28 degree hard freeze is april 11- 20. so, through that lens,
this cold is still within the bounds of climatology.

high pressure is overhead tuesday resulting in the coldest high
temperatures of the week; low-to-mid 40s. this shifts east by
wednesday in response to strong low pressure developing over the
canadian rockies. warm air advection quickly ramps up and we`ll be
in the 60s and 70s midweek.

we`ll keep a close eye on what could be a wet pattern late week. the
aformentioned low pressure sends a cold front through the midwest
that stalls against a strong southeast us ridge. the combination of
gulf moisture advection and the stalled front could spawn additional
heavy rain. the magnitude of the high pressure will be critical in
potentially steering this rain farther north out of the forecast
area.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 619 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

clearing skies will be temporary this evening before a
disturbance pushes southeast over the area and increasing
clouds. cigs will lower between 09z and 11z mon and increase
chances of light rain showers with lowering of the vsbys in the
showers through 12z to 15z mon. as the disturbance moves
eastward out of the area some lake induced cloudiness should
remain through 18z mon when vfr cigs return. northwest winds
will remain gusty with gusts up to 25 kts through the taf
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 060358
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1158 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of colder conditions will exist tonight through tuesday
with temperatures remaining below normal during this time.

- potential for a mix of light rain and snow exists late tonight and
again monday afternoon into monday night. a dusting of accumulation
on grassy surfaces will be possible.

- the next good chance for rain will be thursday into friday.

&&

.aviation...

a pair of cold fronts will drop through the region overnight and
monday afternoon providing two windows of light rain/snow and mvfr
conditions. the obs upstream with the front currently over southern
wi are not dropping much with many reporting vfr still. this will
affect the local region mainly before 12z. a second stronger wave
will pass over the area monday afternoon which will again present a
window to produce a rain/snow mix. there is better frontal forcing
which should result in a better organized band of precip sliding
through for a couple hours. more scattered activity will be possible
before and after the frontal band. mvfr cigs and possibly vsbys will
be possible with this activity.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft initially but high again
after 08z through monday.

* moderate for ptype to be rain/snow mix monday morning and monday
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 321 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

discussion...

a brief interval of below to well below normal temperatures can be
expected the next couple days as the great lakes region resides
along the southern edge of the broad upper level trough under deep
layer northwest flow. brief mid level subsidence/negative
differential vorticity advection will sustain dry conditions through
the first half of the night and will allow some partial clearing
this evening. a mid level short wave impulse now over nrn mn will
quickly move across se mi overnight. the resulting large scale scale
ascent and deep layer moisture will support a chance of showers.
steep mid level lapses rates will result in a convective component
to the showers. a subtle low level warm layer will advect into the
southern portions of the area overnight, supporting a rain or
rain/snow mix in the south. the thermal profile will be cold enough
to support wet/melting snow in the north.

the passage of this wave will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold
air monday into tuesday. steepening low level lapse rates as a
result of cold air advection and daytime heating monday will result
in expanding diurnal cu and showers mon afternoon. while temps are
expected to rebound into the 40s across most of the area, low wet
bulb zero heights will support some snow in the heavier convective
showers, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
given forecast weak surface based instability, some of these showers
may produce brief intense snowfall rates. there is some indication
in a few hi res solutions of an expanding region of low level
convergence developing along a surface cold front/trough axis
sliding south monday evening/night, warranting a lingering chance of
snow showers. the push of cold air behind this is quite impressive
for early april as 850mb temps drop into the negative teens. this
will drive mon night lows into the 20s and will warrant tuesday
highs only in the 30s to near 40. strong high pressure expanding
across the region will at least support dry conditions on tuesday.

a warming trend will then ensue wednesday into thursday within the
return flow of the departing sfc high and in advance of a closed mid
level wave forecast to move along the cntl us/canadian border
region. as this wave lifts north of the region, it is forecast to
drag an associated cold front into lower mi, paralleling the mid
level flow. the broad array of ensemble guidance generally suggests
high chances for rain late in the week due to the projected slow
movement of this front.

marine...

the pressure gradient and cold advection weaken tonight, allowing
wnw wind to subside and current headlines to expire. a clipper
system passes through on monday bringing snow showers and an uptick
in north to northwest winds monday night in its wake. gusts monday
night are forecast to peak between 25 and 30 kt before weakening
tuesday morning. high pressure builds in briefly on tuesday, then
flow strengthens out of the south on wednesday as the next low
pressure system tracks into the upper midwest. this system will send
a slow-moving cold front across the great lakes thursday and friday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm monday to 10 am edt tuesday for
lhz421.

small craft advisory from 4 pm monday to 4 am edt tuesday for
lhz422.

small craft advisory from 8 pm monday to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...sc
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.