Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
711 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

.what has changed...
added frost to the forecast for portions of the area on thursday
night and friday night. chances of rain have trended up for
friday, especially south of a line from findlay to youngstown.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend with
patchy frost on thursday night and greater coverage of frost on
friday night.

2) opportunities for showers will linger through the end of the week
within this cooler pattern.

3) the weather pattern trends gradually warmer with the potential
for thunderstorms next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

low pressure is over western pennsylvania and the associated cold
front is south of the area this afternoon. temperatures range from
the upper 40s near the lakeshore to mid 50s inland. this will be the
beginning of a cooler pattern as an upper level trough sets up over
the great lakes region through saturday. cold advection will
continue overnight with 850mb temperatures falling to around -2c for
thursday and friday before trending slightly cooler for saturday.
normal highs at the end of april are in the mid 60s but we will tend
to see high temperatures limited to the low to mid 50s for the next
3 days. ample cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures near 40
degrees and do not expect to have any issues with frost. more breaks
are expected in the cloud cover from thursday night through saturday
night which will allow for colder overnight lows and potential for
frost. for thursday night the frost looks to primarily effect
northwest pennsylvania while coverage of frost on friday night looks
to encompass most inland areas. a ridge of high pressure will build
overhead friday night with low temperatures generally in the low 30s
but could drop below freezing for inland portions of northwest
pennsylvania. frost/freeze headlines may be needed but will depend
on the degree of clearing over the next few nights.

key message 2...

rain associated with the cold front is exiting the area to the east
this afternoon while additional showers have developed upstream in
northern indiana and western lower michigan along a trailing surface
trough. these showers are expected to reach northwest ohio this
evening then decrease in coverage as the trough swings southeast
across north central ohio overnight. this axis of moisture will
remain a focus for showers to develop on thursday afternoon with
steep low level lapse rates and a minimal amount of instability.

a shortwave trough will round the base of the upper level ridge
thursday night into friday. weak low pressure will slide from
illinois across indiana and ohio bringing a swath of rain thursday
night into friday. chances of rain have trended up with this system,
with greatest potential focused along and south of route 30.

key message 3...

the persistent upper level trough finally shifts off the east
coast on sunday night, and temperatures trend back towards
normal on monday. showers and thunderstorms are possible both
along a warm front and then ahead of a cold front later monday
as the next trough moves through the northwest flow aloft.
temperatures trend warmer again on wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms possible again.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
widespread mvfr to ifr ceilings will continue overnight into
thursday morning. ceilings will gradually improve to mvfr/vfr
later thursday afternoon/evening. yng and eri may have several
more hours of lifr ceilings this evening before climbing to the
ifr category. patchy drizzle and light mist will keep visibility
around 2sm to 5sm this evening and overnight. winds will
generally be from the north to northwest 5 to 10 knots through
the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and low ceilings late
thursday night into friday morning.

&&

.marine...
north to northwesterly flow expected through saturday evening
across lake erie. winds will be generally 5-15 knots during that
time with periods of lighter winds possible friday morning.
waves will continue to be 1-3 feet across that lake as well. by
sunday, high pressure will build in south of the region and
winds will be 10-15 knots and shift to be westerly then
southwesterly by the evening into monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...77
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1220 am edt thu apr 30 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers gradually taper overnight, with another chance
(30-40%) of rain showers thursday evening into early friday.

- below normal temperatures are expected into the start of the
weekend with moderation closer to normal into next week.

- frost may impact sensitive vegetation friday night into early
saturday morning.

&&

.update...
issued at 926 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

no major changes anticipated to the previous forecast this
evening. a reinforcing upper level trough will build southeast
in wake of departing eastern great lakes trough. this evolution
should allow for maintenance of inverted trough type feature
across northwest ohio into far south central lower michigan into
the early overnight with continued scattered shower coverage.
some higher coverage pops were maintained a bit longer across
the far northeast into the early overnight, but otherwise no
significant changes to pops. the secondary upper trough will
allow for reinforcing push of low level caa tonight, but this
should keep just enough low level mixing in place in combination
with cloud cover to prevent any widespread frost concerns.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 158 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

a general west to northwest flow aloft will keep the region in a
cooler and much less active pattern for the next 7 days or more.
that`s not to say there isn`t a few items to look at, but in
comparison to the past several weeks it is a welcome breather.

a series of weak disturbances will help keep periods of clouds and
even some lighter showers around this afternoon/evening as well as
later thursday afternoon into thursday night. qpf amounts will be on
the light side and not cause any concerns with the hydro issues
still in play for some areas. temperatures will be chilly (and
generally below normal) for late april and in comparison to recent
times. although lows both tonight and thursday night will dip into
the 30s, cloud cover, light precip and a modest breeze should limit
any frost potential.

a somewhat more pronounced trough pushes through friday, bringing
with it additional caa and more importantly clearing skies as well
as diminishing winds. this will set the stage for widespread frost
development with some areas in the ne possibly going below freezing
for a light freeze. too early for any headlines, but suspect at
least a frost advisory will be hoisted at some point with maybe a
need for a freeze watch/warning. the cool conditions will persist
into saturday before the deeper trough begins to push north and some
moderation back to more normal temperatures (60s) arrive.
disturbances will still move through the flow and bring some chances
for showers next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1220 am edt thu apr 30 2026

cool cyclonic flow on the backside of an exiting upper level
impulse will keep mvfr cigs locked in through daybreak at kfwa,
while latest satellite/ob trends showing this cloud deck already
clearing ksbn to the east. could see this fill back in for a
time here early this morning, though confidence in this
occurring is low. primarily vfr then at both sites through most
of the day on thursday in between systems. rain showers and
reductions back into low vfr or mvfr then into thursday night as
the next upper level wave tracks through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1157 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

.key messages...

- showers diminish before sunrise tonight. there are additional
minor chances for light rain each afternoon both thursday and
friday.

- a stretch of well below average temperatures will exist through
this weekend and bring potential for frost/freeze conditions each
morning friday through sunday.

&&

.aviation...

showers increasing coverage over sw lower mi leading up to midnight
are on the west flank of an intense smaller scale mid level
circulation that has supported activity over se mi for much of the
evening. the upstream development moves eastward while shrinking in
coverage but still demands accounting for along the terminal
corridor for much of the late night period. the extra boundary layer
moisture also sustains borderline mvfr/vfr ceiling in and near the
associated nw-se surface pressure trough as it gradually fills
toward sunrise. a more neutral nw low level wind then works to bring
a low cloud decrease down from northern lower mi while mid clouds
linger during the morning. it is a cooler flow that is subject to a
daytime instability boost of cumulus that develops into broken
ceiling in the lower range of vfr by afternoon. a stray shower is
also favored in this setup but with coverage and duration too low
for a terminal mention from mid afternoon into thursday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet tonight and thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 241 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

discussion...

a notably cooler environment firmly entrenched today, as an initial
period of meaningful large scale height falls occur atop prevailing
low level northeast flow. associated broad, weak ascent within the
moist cyclonic flow will maintain some pockets of light rain or
drizzle into the early evening hours. potential for an uptick in
coverage early tonight, as greater height falls tied to an inbound
higher amplitude wave shifts an inverted surface trough toward the
area. overall moisture quality and depth supportive of a chaotic
coverage and will continue to highlight potential thru the early
morning hours. the likelihood for a higher coverage of cloud cover
to linger well into the night, combined with a persistent light
gradient, will provide a higher prospective floor for low thursday
morning. forecast will continue to highlight readings ranging from
mid 30s to lower 40s. some patchy frost plausible in this
environment, but widespread coverage appears unlikely.

upper low forecast to anchor north of lake superior over the next 24
hours, effectively maintaining a stretch of cooler and potentially
unsettled conditions to finish the work week. brief bouts of pva as
weak shortwave energy transit the existing mid level cyclonic
periphery may combine with steepening diurnally enhanced lapse rates
to offer a lower probability for shower production both thursday and
friday. slightly greater signal exists friday, as highlighted by
latest blended model guidance. coldest conditions this period likely
noted friday, as a secondary window of cold air advection drags 850
mb temperatures below -5c. highs ranging from mid 40s to lower 50s.
frost/freeze considerations will exist, particularly fri night as
overnight temperatures more definitely push below freezing early
saturday morning.

higher magnitude cold for early may standards will exist through
saturday within deep layer northwest flow. daylight temperatures
again struggling to eclipse 50 degrees. resident polar thermal
profile will steadily vacate starting sunday within the backdrop of
modest height rises and brief warm air advection as low level flow
emerges from the southwest within the immediate wake of exiting
surface ridging. a more seasonable airmass then entrenched heading
into early next week. large scale pattern maintains some level of
general troughiness with a favorable trajectory for additional mid
level impulses to pivot through, suggesting a potentially wet
pattern may emerge at times during the early week period.

marine...

upper troughing holds across the great lakes through the remainder
of the work week maintaining cooler, unsettled weather though little
to no thunderstorm chances as a result. low pressure lifting out of
the ohio valley into the eastern great lakes shifts winds from the
northeast to northwest tonight with this flow direction largely
holding through friday. speeds stay on the modest side owing to a
fairly diffuse gradient with gusts holding at or below 20kts. period
of high pressure favored to emerge this weekend before the unsettled
pattern returns to start next work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.