Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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779
fxus61 kcle 271834
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
234 pm edt wed may 27 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain showers and widespread clouds will gradually exit the
area into this evening.

2) mainly quiet, dry, and seasonable weather is expected into
mid-next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest surface observations depict a surface warm front
located just south of the us-30 corridor as a cold front moves
south across southern ontario this afternoon. residual showers
and widespread cloudiness resulting from weak isentropic ascent
north of the warm front will gradually dissipate and exit the
area into this evening as the cold front moves south through the
region overnight. slightly cooler temperatures in the 60s to
lower 70s are expected behind the front on thursday with a
modest north breeze of 10 to 15 mph.

key message 2...
the overall pattern favors a relatively quiet and dry period of
weather into mid-next week as an omega block develops across
the conus. for the most part, our area will generally be located
on the western periphery of the upper-level trough. high temperatures
will range between 70 and 80, with slightly cooler overnight
temperatures in the 40s possible saturday night into sunday
morning as a cold front moves south across the area. can`t rule
out some isolated rain showers beginning early next week, though
confidence in coverage is low.


&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
vfr is expected at all terminals through thursday afternoon as a
cold front drops across the region this afternoon and evening
and strong high pressure builds across the great lakes in its
wake. a few lingering showers could impact kmfd through 20z this
afternoon, but expect slowly improving conditions at kmfd, kcak,
and kyng through this evening when the current bkn to ovc
ceilings of 4 to 6 thousand feet will scatter out.

light and variable winds this afternoon will become n to ne at
about 3 to 5 knots tonight, increasing to 10-15 knots thursday
with some gusts to 20 knots by afternoon.

outlook...vfr is largely favored from thursday through monday.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet marine conditions are expected through early
next week on lake erie as strong canadian high pressure builds
across the great lakes tonight and thursday and largely remains
in place. winds will become light ne tonight and increase to
10-20 knots thursday before turning sw at 5-15 knots friday. we
will need to monitor the friday night and saturday period when
another push of n to ne winds could approach 15-25 knots. this
is the only period over the next 5 days when small craft
headlines may be needed. even without headlines, waves will
reach 3 feet leading to choppy conditions for saturday. winds
will turn light sunday through monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 271934
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
334 pm edt wed may 27 2026

.key messages...

- there is a high swim risk and beach hazards statement in
effect for southern lake michigan from late tonight through
thursday evening.

- mainly dry conditions are expected through early next week.

- temperatures will be near seasonable levels through early next
week.

- persistent northeast to east winds into the weekend will keep
humidity levels on the low side into monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt wed may 27 2026

rain showers continue to dissipate this afternoon south of us route
24. the sheared upper level vort max/warm frontal feature that
allowed a band of moderate rainfall to reach as far north as the us
route 24 corridor has continued to shear and attenuate as it
encounters weak westerly upper flow across the southern great lakes.
the influence of the west-northwest flow downstream of the central
conus upper ridge axis should continue to suppress lingering better
low level moisture convergence into east central in/southwest oh
through the remainder of the afternoon. southward sinking slightly
drier low level air across northeast indiana should also aid in the
end to scattered shower activity across the south through the
remainder of the afternoon.

looking upstream. a more substantial upper level wave is progressing
southeast across the northern great lakes. some patchy mid level
cloud development per satellite imagery this afternoon in traverse
city mi area is likely marking leading edge of some better elevated
lift with this short wave. near term guidance continues to hint
at inverted low level trough feature developing across central
lower mi downstream of this wave. this could be enough to yield
a weak 200- 500 j/kg mucape axis across central lower into
southeast lower mi into early this evening following this pocket
of weak moisture pooling with the inverted trough. prospects in
realizing this instability due to overall limited moisture
still appear to be quite low, although can`t completely rule out
an isolated shower south central lower michigan in the 00z-03z
timeframe. otherwise skies will clear tonight as cold advection
gradually ramps up from north to south overnight. this cold
advection overnight could keep just enough weak low level
shallow mixing in place coupled with dry air advection to
prevent significant fog concerns.

an expansive low level anticyclone will settle across the region
thursday and thursday night, and broad low/mid level subsidence
should assure mostly sunny conditions for thursday with
seasonable temperatures, although onshore flow and cold lake
michigan waters should keep highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s
near lake michigan.

all indications still point to omega block pattern persisting into
the weekend, with a stable longwave pattern in place. mean central
conus ridge positioning from upper ms valley into south
central canada should keep local area on far western periphery
of the eastern great lakes thermal trough with temperatures just
slightly above normal for most of the period.

some signal still remains for some retrogression of blocked pattern
to allow weak backdoor cool front feature some time early next week,
but confidence in westward extent of this better low level cold
advection is still quite low with a possibility that much colder low
level temps will remain confined to the eastern great lakes. cannot
completely rule out low shower chances with potential backdoor cool
front early next week, but very limited moisture and uncertainty
with westward extent of retrogression argue for keeping bulk of
forecast dry with near normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1251 pm edt wed may 27 2026

a stationary front lingered over central indiana. the surface
flow north of the front over northern indiana was generally
light from the northeast. a weak pressure gradient will remain
over the area during the taf period. the low and mid levels will
remain dry with cloud cover limited to just high clouds. vfr
conditions are expected to prevail through the taf period with
winds generally 5 to 8 knots from the northeast.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until 11 pm cdt this evening for inz103-203.
beach hazards statement from 1 am cdt thursday through late
thursday night for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 2 am edt thursday through
thursday evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am to 8 pm edt thursday for lmz043.
small craft advisory from 2 am thursday to 2 am edt friday for
lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 271920
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 pm edt wed may 27 2026

.key messages...

- low chance remains for isolated evening showers or thunderstorms,
south of a line from howell to grosse isle.

- temperatures return closer to late may normals thursday through the
weekend, with the exception of a brief warm-up friday.

- after today, the only chance for rain will be late sunday into
monday morning.

&&

.discussion...

a weak backdoor cold front slows from southern lower michigan into
the northern ohio valley. several competing synoptic factors will
affect the development of conditional isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms for portions of southeast michigan. a positively
tilted shortwave trough embedded within northern stream flow
descends on the region, overcoming the blocking influence of an
anticyclone anchored over the central atlantic. poor model consensus
exists regarding instability through the rest of the afternoon, as
large dewpoint depressions inhibit destabilization. the highest
potential for convective initiation will be located in the vicinity
of the frontal slope where dewpoints of 60f are still possible. tall
and skinny cape profiles with an inverted-v shape below 5 kft (dcape
in excess of 700 j/kg) lead to a low-end wind threat should
sufficiently deep updrafts arise. the lack of moisture and shear
limit the intensity and coverage of storms, should any arise. based
on the latest frontal positioning, any convection that materializes
should be confined to points near and south of a line from howell to
grosse ile. anomalous high temperatures repeat today, in the lower
80s outside the lake huron shadow, or about 10f above normal. loss
of daylight quickly diminishes any thundershower activity, followed
by post-frontal cooling and further drying overnight.

lower michigan will reside within the proximity of the inflection
point of the northern stream jet thursday morning with gradual
mid/upper height rises building throughout the day. a ridge axis
marked by 500 mb heights of 585+ dam centers between manitoba and
florida, remaining nearly stationary into the weekend, while
troughing lingers over northeastern noam. encroachment of warmer air
aids in lifting/mixing 850 mb temperatures into the teens (celsius)
friday, before the thermal gradient drifts back toward the west.
highs in the 70s are then expected to continue through at least the
first half of next week as the pattern remains locked-in. near-zero
pops thursday through sunday with high pressure parked squarely over
the state. some semblance of an opportunity for rain late sunday
into monday as a zonally oriented trough axis descends due-south
from hudson bay, triggering nocturnal ascent amidst weak theta-e
advection from the upper midwest. medium-range
deterministic/ensemble/ml/al models very in generating qpf with this
setup.

&&

.marine...

as high pressure expands from northern ontario into lake superior
tonight, there will be an increase in the north-norhteast winds
across the eastern lakes. wind gusts will reach or exceed 20 knots
in the warmer nearshore waters. this will boost wave heights,
leading to hazardous conditions to small craft. winds and waves will
decrease late thursday into thursday night as the surface high
gradually sinks southward into the ohio valley by friday. a weak
surface cold front will then push across lake huron friday night, in
advance of another strong high pressure system. this may result in
another period of hazardous small craft conditions in the
nearshores.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1258 pm edt wed may 27 2026

aviation...

the weak front across southern lower mi is pausing southward
progress as a trailing mid level wave catches up from the upper
midwest this afternoon. the wave and front combine to maintain a
chance of showers along the terminal corridor, mainly after 21z
until daytime instability fades by mid evening. there is a better
chance for greater shower coverage toward dtw where the front is
still overhead or nearby to the south during late afternoon, however
thunderstorm coverage and duration is still too limited for a place
in the forecast. conditions are otherwise vfr through tonight as the
frontal zone is free of low clouds and the upstream northerly flow
is so far not activating sub 5000 ft cloud development. this leads
into a brief time window for a stray pocket of mvfr stratocu after
sunrise that quickly mixes out or up into scattered shallow cumulus
in a strengthening ne wind field by thursday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... a weak front maintains a slight chance for a
thunderstorm late this afternoon and early evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for an isolated thunderstorm mainly 22-02z.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......sc
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.