Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
057
fxus61 kcle 241719
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
119 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the prior forecast or messaging.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather with seasonable temperatures is expected through
tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
outside a few light showers during the pre-dawn hours from
marion to holmes county, quiet weather is expected today.
pleasant fall weather is expected through at least tuesday as
high pressure brings dry conditions and near normal
temperatures, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. overnight
lows could be a bit chilly, especially tonight where lows in the
40s are expected. would not be surprised to a see a couple of
the lower spots dip below 40 even. next chance of rain is not
until next week wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with mainly vfr to
persist through the taf period. brief patchy fog is possible
overnight, though low confidence in coverage precludes mention
at this time.

winds are out of the east to northeast this afternoon, 8 to 12
knots. some isolated gusts up to 20 knots will remain possible
over the next several hours, though opted against prevailing
inclusion given the gusts being mainly isolated and sporadic.
winds will become light and variable overnight, before
increasing out of the northeast again by friday morning, 7 to 9
knots.

outlook...mainly vfr favored through tuesday, though periods of
overnight patchy fog are possible.

&&

.marine...
east to northeast flow continues today around 10 to 15 knots,
with some potentially for locally enhanced winds near 20 knots
and potentially waves of 3 to 5 feet between sandusky and
willowick later this afternoon, especially north of cleveland.
for now, will let the current small craft advisory and beach
hazard statement expire on time, and closely monitor
observations for later this afternoon to see if headlines are
briefly needed.

otherwise, wind direction will tend to favor northeast this
weekend, though lower winds speeds will tend to generate waves
of 1 to 3, especially during the afternoon hours.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...kahn
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
049
fxus63 kiwx 241620
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1220 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

.key messages...

- slightly below normal temperatures (coolest on friday)
continue into the weekend with a return to slightly above
normal temperatures in the early to midweek period next week.

- an extended period of dry weather is expected today through
tuesday, with next rain chances not until the middle of next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 132 am edt thu sep 24 2026

our upper low that`s brought moisture into the area continues to
move southeastward slowly today so that it resides in the
mid-atlantic and southeastern states by this evening. vorticity
continues to dampen across the area today and with east winds,
a thin layer of cloudiness is expected to reside across the
area. this is until an area of dry air advection pushes through
this evening. rap time sections from last night which showed
this erosion of moisture below 850 mb last evening and hanged
onto low stratus, but it certainly makes sense that this
boundary coming through this evening would erode the thin layer
of lingering stratus.

following that, another vigorous upper shortwave dives southward
along the eastern coast of lk mi later fri. however, enough dry air
resides across the area that it should be a dry passage.
additionally, with it being on the front edge of a surface high
pressure system edging into the area, gradient winds look to stay
weak.

during this late week period, low teens celsius at 850 mb could
be tapped into to, with the best chance of this happening today
south of us-30 and west of us-31, where the better low level
lapse rates reside. otherwise, friday appears to have weaker
low level lapse rates allowing for sub-70f degree highs. highs
surpassing 70f appear to edge into the area for the weekend as
the shortwave dampens over lk mi and the vorticity from the
strong nor`easter across the northeast backs westward. lows are
expected to be securely in the 40s from friday night through
sunday night so it`ll feel cool at night then.

more substantial warm advection finally works its way into the
area between tuesday night and wednesday as a pacific trough
deepens and works northeastward. there`s some question on timing
of arrival of the warmer air so highs between tuesday and
wednesday still have some uncertainty. increasing confidence of
highs surpassing 70f area-wide on wednesday and perhaps
thursday as 20 to 30% chance for highs >79 degrees occur from
white county to jay county. thunderstorms could be possible
between tuesday night and thursday depending on the timing of
the system into the area.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1218 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

mvfr/fuel alternate cigs have settled into kfwa with a pocket of
vfr conditions at ksbn about to be replaced by mvfr cigs as
well. the stratus will drift slowly west and over time should
break down as drier air works in towards 00z fri. thereafter, no
flight concerns are expected at the present time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
306
fxus63 kdtx 241622
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1222 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

.key messages...

- an extended period of dry and generally seasonable weather
continues through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

moisture release off lake erie this morning under a deep low level
inversion led to some mvfr based strato cu across the detroit
terminals late this morning. ongoing mixing into very dry air just
above the inversion will continue the erosion of these early day low
clouds. this will leave clear skies and light winds to prevail
through the rest of the day. there will be a persistence of light
east-northeast low level flow tonight into friday as strong high
pressure remains anchored over quebec and ern ontario. there are
subtle indications that an additional moisture flux off lake erie
overnight into friday morning may support some additional mvfr based
clouds into metro detroit. there is not enough of a signal within the
model suite to carry a ceiling at this time. a mention of some
scattered low clouds does however seem justified.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 am edt thu sep 24 2026

discussion...

a rex block continues to drift over the eastern great lakes today
with broad surface high pressure anchored over southern quebec
providing strongly subsident and stable conditions. easterly wind
persists through the day but with slightly lower magnitude than
yesterday given a weakening gradient. this advects a drier air mass
in with pwat slated to fall below 0.50", bringing lots of sunshine.
high temperatures are forecast to land within a few degrees on either
side of 70 degrees. another clear, crisp fall evening is in store
with lows tonight falling well into the 40s outside of the urban
core.

by friday the rex block evolves into a coastal low but leaves
longwave ridging in control of the great lakes. a weakening upper
shortwave brings increasing coverage of high clouds late tonight
into friday which dampens high temps a few degrees compared to
today, but highly stable and dry conditions in the mid and low
levels ensure dry weather. as the coastal low drifts northward
toward new england this weekend, deep layer subsidence settles back
in across se michigan. this favors mainly clear skies and light wind
with high pressure established overhead. a good amount of sun and
air mass modification will facilitate a gradual warming trend
through the weekend. this stagnant patterns looks to hold through
monday before the coastal low finally begins to release east.

the next opportunity for more active weather targets the local area
between late tuesday and thursday as a pacific wave treks through.
there are a subset of solutions that carve out a cutoff low over the
four corners, leaving a disorganized frontal system to track through
the great lakes. other solutions carry a more amplified 500mb wave
directly across the region, producing a more dynamic surface low
with potential for thunder and/or stronger wind. for now, a chance
pop will be advertised for this broader mid-week period until
details come into focus.

marine...

a moderate pressure gradient responsible for brisk east to
northeasterly flow will ease through the morning and afternoon
hours. this will diminish wind speeds through the day, leading to
light winds by tonight. high pressure will slowly build in from
quebec and ontario and will center over the great lakes by friday.
this will bring an extended period of quieter weather that will
sustain light winds and dry conditions through the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.