Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
658 pm est mon jan 12 2026

.what has changed...
snowfall is trending a little higher wednesday afternoon through
thursday, with a faster transition from rain to snow on
wednesday. temperatures wednesday night and thursday are also
trending colder.

&&

.key messages...
1) a mild and breezy day is expected tuesday with a quick shot
of rain showers in the afternoon and evening, especially in ne
ohio and nw pa.

2) widespread rain will arrive early wednesday transitioning to
snow by early afternoon, with snow continuing into thursday
while gradually transitioning to lake effect snow thursday
afternoon into thursday night.

3) temperatures will rapidly fall wednesday afternoon, with
below zero wind chills likely wednesday night into thursday.

4) even colder air is possible this weekend into early next week
as well as additional rounds of snow.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a rather strong northern stream mid/upper shortwave trough will
dive through the upper midwest and great lakes tuesday and
tuesday night, with the associated surface low passing north of
lake superior tuesday and lifting through eastern ontario
tuesday night. as the warm front lifts through the region
tuesday morning ahead of the system, strengthening warm air
advection and a tight pressure gradient will lead to gusty sw
winds developing. decent mixing into a 45-50 knot low-level jet
as temperatures warm will allow winds to increase to 15-20
knots with gusts of 25-30 knots. locally stronger gusts are
possible tuesday afternoon in nw ohio and near downslope favored
areas near the lakeshore. in terms of rainfall with this system,
that will not be very impactful since there is a lack of
moisture. some light rain will occur with a frontogenesis band
tuesday afternoon and evening as mid-level forcing from the
right entrance of a 120-130 knot upper jet streak squeezes out a
band of showers along the weak trailing cold front. the bulk of
this will likely move through between about 21z and 03z tuesday
evening, with the greatest coverage in ne ohio and nw pa.
temperatures will warm into the low/mid 40s in the warm sector
tuesday afternoon, and this will be the last mild day for quite
some time.

key message 2...
the big system of the week will arrive early wednesday and will
signal a return to winter, with impacts lingering through
thursday night. as the mid/upper trough over the great lakes
continues to deepen wednesday, a second cold front will plow
through the great lakes and ohio valley regions. this front will
slow as shortwave energy diving into the base of the digging
longwave trough combined with a strong pool of trailing arctic
air triggers a wave of low pressure to develop on the front.
this low will develop in the vicinity of the lower ohio valley
wednesday morning and lift into new england by thursday morning
while transferring its energy to a strengthening coastal low. as
moisture advection and isentropic ascent increase early
wednesday, widespread rain will spread in before sunrise. this
rain will changeover to snow from west to east, starting in nw
ohio wednesday morning, with the changeover reaching the oh/pa
border by 21z. this has trended several hours faster compared to
previous forecast guidance, so confidence is increasing for
widespread, accumulating snow wednesday. given the faster
changeover, snowfall amounts have been slightly increased.

the heaviest and most widespread snow will likely fall
wednesday afternoon into thursday morning as the mid-level
deformation zone pivots through the region with deep wraparound
moisture and strong mid-level vorticity. this combined with lake
enhancement from a nw boundary layer flow across lake erie and
850 mb temps crashing to -19 to -21 c will boost snowfall. this
will significantly impact the wednesday evening commute, with
additional impacts lingering for the thursday morning commute as
the steadiest snow winds down from west to east. besides the
falling snow, nw winds gusting up to 25 knots at times will also
lead to blowing snow and poor visibilities.

total snowfall wednesday through thursday afternoon should at
least average 1-3 inches areawide, with 4-6 inches possible in
parts of north central and ne ohio through nw pa.

as the deeper moisture exits from mid thursday morning through
the afternoon, the synoptic snow will transition to lake-effect
snow as the nw flow and strong cold air advection continues.
this will be more localized as is typical for lake-effect, but
additional accumulations are likely in upslope favored regions
of the primary and secondary snowbelts in ne ohio and nw pa
thursday afternoon. this will gradually end thursday night as
shortwave ridging briefly builds into the region.

key message 3...
another impact with this midweek system will be the strong blast
of arctic air. morning highs in the upper 30s to around 40
wednesday will fall through the 20s in the afternoon, with lows
in the teens wednesday night. temperatures are trending colder
thursday, with highs only in the teens to low 20s. this will
support wind chills between 0 and -5 wednesday night into
thursday morning and subzero again thursday night.

key message 4...
arctic air will remain in place this weekend and into next week,
and likely beyond, as the mid/upper air pattern strongly
amplifies over north america. the pattern will feature a strong
mid/upper ridge in the ne pacific and alaska, with a downstream
deep mid/upper trough over central and eastern north america.
this is a classic pattern for cross polar flow to send a lot of
arctic air through central and eastern parts of the united
states, and the coldest air of the winter usually occurs with
such patterns. after a brief warm up to the upper 20s to around
30 friday and saturday, expect highs in the teens and low 20s
to return sunday and monday, with several days of below zero
wind chills likely again.

several clipper systems will bring bouts of at least light snow
friday through early next week, with locally heavy lake-effect
snow likely in the primary snowbelt east of cleveland through nw
pa as well.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with vfr to persist
through the taf period. light rain showers are possible at eri
tuesday afternoon, though no vsby impacts are expected.

otherwise, the main concern will be the potential for gusty
south to southwest winds on tuesday. winds will increase to 15
to 22 knots, with periodic gusts of 30 to 35 knots likely late
tuesday morning and afternoon. a marginal window for llws is
possible overnight as west to southwest 925 mb winds of 35 to
40 knots briefly arrive across the area, though opted against
inclusion at this time. stronger 925 mb southwest winds of 45
knots will arrive late tuesday morning and afternoon, though
elevated surface winds greater than 15 knots precludes llws
mention.

outlook...non-vfr expected in rain late tuesday night into
wednesday. non-vfr will continue into thursday as rain
transitions to snow showers late wednesday, most numerous east
of the i-71 corridor. non-vfr may return in snow showers on
friday, and again on saturday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds will ease slightly and briefly tonight dropping to
10-20kts and keeping the higher wave heights of 3-6ft well east of
the islands and out beyond the nearshore water zones. small craft
advisories will drop this evening into tonight, but likely only for
a short period of time. southwest winds again increase tuesday ahead
of a pair of cold fronts to 20-30kts, and wave heights 3-5ft again
east of the islands. the second and stronger cold front wednesday
brings a wind shift to northwesterly at 20-30kts and wave heights in
the 4-8ft range in the central basin and 3-6ft in the eastern and
western basins. winds return to offshore directions by friday at
around 15-25kts, keeping the open waters at 3-6ft but the nearshore
zones 1-2ft.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 3 am est tuesday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 pm est mon jan 12 2026

.key messages...
- breezy with slight chances (20-30%) for light rain tuesday
afternoon and evening. highs will be in the mid to upper 40s.
rain may mix with snow late tuesday night north of us 24 as
temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

- lake effect snow will develop wednesday and persist into
thursday for north-northwest wind favored snowbelts. it`s
possible that locations in southern berrien, la porte, and
starke counties see greater than 6 inches of accumulation by
thursday pm.

- the wednesday pm and thursday am commutes are most likely to
be impacted by the lake effect snow. northwest winds gusting
up to 35 mph may also create blowing and drifting snow.

- colder with another chance for accumulating snow area-wide friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 312 pm est mon jan 12 2026

high pressure centered over the mid mississippi river valley is
providing dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and even some
sunshine today across our forecast area! enjoy it while it lasts
because an active weather pattern is ahead this week with chances
for rain and also several opportunties for accumulating snow.

a deepening low pressure system will traverse through the upper
great lakes region midweek. by tuesday afternoon, waa will boost
temperatures into the mid 40s. within the warm sector of this
system, any precipitation that falls tuesday afternoon will be rain.
as we will be on the periphery of this system tracking north of the
great lakes, rainfall is expected to be light. tuesday night, a cold
front sweeping through will drop temperatures into the upper 30s.
wedneday`s high temperature will be reached before daybreak as a
secondary stronger cold front moves through; temperatures will fall
throughout wednesday in the wake of the front.

confidence is increasing for an impactful lake effect snow event to
develop for northwest indiana and potentially far southwest lower
michigan during the day wednesday through at least thursday morning.
in the wake of the cold front wednesday morning, temperatures will
fall to at or just below freezing. caa and strong low level
convergent north/northwesterly winds will allow for a single
dominant lake effect snow band to develop downwind of lake michigan
around daybreak wednesday. winds may initially start out northwest
before becoming north-northwest or possibly due north. with this in
mind, the lake effect snow band will likely extend pretty far inland
due to the elongated fetch over lake michigan. wouldn`t be
surprised either if a lake superior to lake michigan connection
develops. delta t`s will be as high as 17-18c with cold air
moving over the still relatively mild and unfrozen lake michigan
(water temps between 1-3c). in addition, parameters appear
favorable for periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow
within the single band. forecast soundings at benton harbor and
michigan city depict increasing lift and saturation within the
dgz, especially wednesday afternoon and evening. inversion
heights rise during the day wednesday to around 8000 ft. a
potent upper level trough pivoting through wednesday night will
help to increase instability and large- scale ascent, and may
also help to intensify snow rates. at times, snowfall rates
could be over 1" per hour. this kind of setup with an elongated
northerly fetch and possible lake superior connection favors the
bullseye of lake effect snow amounts to be in northwest
indiana. overall, snow amounts of at least 6" appear likely
for southern berrien, la porte, and starke counties in
northwest indiana. portions of surrounding counties to the south
and east are in the 4-6" range. i did consider issuing a winter
storm watch with this forecast package; la porte county will
definitely need one, it is just a question of which surrounding
counties need one too. decided to hold off on this shift due to
uncertainty on exact band placement and how far the inland
extent may be. it is also going to be windy on the backside of
the deepening low pressure system, with northwest winds gusting
as high as 30 to 35 mph on wednesday. this will not only further
reduce visibilities within any strong lake effect bands but
also will allow for blowing and drifting snow. the wednesday
evening and thursday morning commutes will likely be impacted.
depending on how long it takes for lake effect snow to taper
off, the thursday evening commute may also be slick and slow-
going.

colder air follows for the end of the week into the weekend with yet
another system on the horizon. in quick succession with the midweek
system, yet another area of low pressure tracks through the great
lakes region. with colder air in place, a combo of accumulating
system and lake effect snow is possible area-wide on friday and
saturday. it will be windy again, which will drop wind chills below
zero at times (especially at night). colder air continues into early
next week with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 629 pm est mon jan 12 2026

dry weather continues on the heels of surface high pressure within
an area of slight mid level height rises overnight into early
tuesday. the ecmwf indicates substantial height falls for during the
day tuesday as a shortwave traverses eastward just north of the area
and also has some precip with in an area of 850 mb moist advection.
however, there`s some uncertainty with this an it appears the ecmwf
is alone with this solution (although the aigfs is wetter than the
gfs at that time). rap time sections indicate much of the atmosphere
below 700 mb will be dry so will lean vfr with these tafs.

winds continue out of the ssw during this period and have their
greatest chance to achieve 25 to 30 kt gusts midday into the
afternoon given deepening lapse rates. will also be including some
llws in these tafs with the low level jet around.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est tuesday for lmz043-
046.
gale watch from wednesday morning through late wednesday night
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
617 pm est mon jan 12 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and mild on tuesday with a slight chance of wintry mix in
the morning followed by scattered light rain showers.

- snow showers wednesday and wednesday night as arctic air moves
into the region. accumulations between a dusting and 2 inches for
most locations, with 3 inches possible along the lake huron
shoreline.

- much colder late this week and into next weekend. thursday and
friday morning wind chill around zero degrees.

- periodic chances for snow will exist friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions this evening through tonight as ridging builds across
the area in advance of the next system. patches of mid/high cloud
will stream across the area at times through tonight. a warm front
will develop over the area on its way north on tuesday. this will
bring lowering of the clouds but mainly still vfr. some signal for
the front to produce light rain during the day but the wealth of dry
air in the lower levels will make anything more than virga hard to
come by. chances of precip are less than 20% for most sites so will
not mention at this time. winds will become gusty once again in the
afternoon with gusts to 25 to 30 knots. chance for mvfr cigs late in
the forecast as a cold front approaches.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet through tuesday, medium for tuesday
night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 pm est mon jan 12 2026

discussion...

a mid-level shortwave ridge supports benign conditions the rest of
the day into tonight with nva and anticyclonic flow maintaining
higher stability across the area. wind becomes less gusty overnight
but a persistent gradient keeps southwest wind and elevated warm
advection active overnight. lows will be mild, near 30.

the next low will be steered across the northern great lakes on
tuesday by a mid-level wave dropping in within larger scale
troughing over the eastern conus. an elevated warm front will
develop overhead and attempt to produce light precipitation during
the morning, but will have to contend with a lot of dry air in
place. temps will sit tenuously close to or just below freezing
through around 9am, which brings potential for light wintry mix
should precip develop. given the limited moisture during this
window, virga will be the most likely outcome. any additional precip
that develops through mid to late morning would trend from a
rain/snow mix to just rain as temps rise toward the upper 30s and
lower 40s for a high.

the gradient will tighten further ahead of the inbound low,
producing breezy conditions through the daylight hours tomorrow.
latest guidance has trended upward for wind magnitude, and boundary
layer wind progs will support gusts to 35 to 40 mph from late
morning to mid afternoon. the mid-level vort max passes overhead mid
to late afternoon with trailing filaments of pv following throughout
the night. with slightly more moisture to work with, this will
warrant a chance for scattered light rain showers into tuesday night.

amplified ridging over the western conus directs a potent wave
southward across the great lakes on wednesday. an attendant arctic
front will track north to south across the state wednesday morning
with 850mb temps plummeting from around 0c to around -20c by
wednesday night. early day highs in the 30s fall to the teens by the
evening hours. the front will provide a focus for snow showers with
steepening lapse rates, increasing low-level fgen, and even some
instability developing ahead of it suggestive of potential for a
brief burst of heavier rates for parts of the area. snow squall
parameter has shown an increasing trend, so this period bears
monitoring for possible localized impacts to the wednesday morning
commute. accumulations of a dusting to around 1 inch would be
possible along with drops in visibility.

the continued cold advection will maintain a chance of additional
snow showers wednesday afternoon into wednesday night. attention
during this period turns to the eastern shoreline of the thumb where
n to nnw wind off lake huron may bring lake effect activity onshore
at times. ensemble data supports accumulations of around 2 to 3
inches for this area by thursday morning. a relative lull in snow
showers is likely on thursday but then wintry weather continues
friday and all the way into early next week as a series of low
amplitude waves track through the resident longwave trough. this
offers fairly high confidence in snow shower activity, but low
confidence on timing and amount specifics for now. the pattern
reinforces the arctic air supply with 850mb temps held 5 to 10
degrees below normal as we approach the climatological coldest part
of the season. wind chills will generally range from -10 to 20f
through early next week with values near 0 on thursday and friday
mornings.

marine...

modest southwesterly flow decreases this evening, before the
gradient tightens ahead of the next clipper system. the small craft
advisories will be allowed to expire. flow increases and turns
southerly tuesday which brings potential for renewed small craft
advisories across portions of the southern lake huron nearshores. 35-
50 knot flow moves into the lowest 3 kft, but gusts may be held in-
check by lower column stability. still, cannot completely rule out
isolated gusts to gales tuesday. the low ejects into quebec by
wednesday morning which forces a rather potent cold frontal across
the central great lakes. potential exists for a post-frontal gales
on wednesday with the ensuing cold advection, but the low-level wind
field is weaker and displaced further south. winds speeds decrease
thursday, then flip southerly by friday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.