Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 111209
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
709 am est wed nov 11 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
rain chances and amounts for tonight have increased, especially
across northern portions of the area. little change to the "big
picture" thursday through saturday, though some minor adjustments
were made to precip chances/amounts/types and temperatures.

&&

.key messages...
1) after a dry day today, a period of rain is expected across
the entire area tonight into early thursday morning. it turns
breezy and cooler on thursday as occasional showers continue.

2) lake effect showers continue thursday night into the
weekend as western portions of the area dry out. snow will mix
in at times, especially away from lake erie, though the risk for
impactful accumulations remains low.

3) dry weather with a slow warming trend early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mid-upper level clouds will stream in today ahead of a digging
trough and developing low pressure, though we should remain
rain-free through the day with afternoon highs of 55-60.

this forecaster thinks it`s fair to say "the party"...in this
case, a prolonged period of relatively warm and dry weather to
start the fall...is over starting this evening. a cold front
will sink south across the area late this afternoon into this
evening, with deepening low pressure tracking just to our south
across the upper ohio valley overnight tonight. as guidance
finally converges on the final track/intensity of this low, rain
chances and amounts have been nudged up a bit as it`s looking
like the expected swath of rain just north/northwest of the low
will track right across our forecast area. this will be a
rather compact system moving through fairly quickly, which will
limit rain amounts to a point. however, there will be a brief
period of low-mid level frontogenesis as thermal packing takes
place just north-northwest of the low tonight which should
support more organized/banded rain. there may be just a touch
of elevated instability as well, which can support a bit of a
convective component. the forecast has a swath of 0.20-0.40" of
rain focused on a findlay-cleveland-erie line through early
thursday with a bit less outside of that. locally higher amounts
over 0.50" are possible, with guidance still disagreeing
slightly on exactly where the greatest swath of rain tracks.
lows tonight are expected to fall into the low-mid 40s.

unsettled weather continues area-wide beneath the deepening
upper-level trough on thursday as low pressure transfers to
off the northern mid atlantic coast. as temperatures aloft
continue cooling through thursday and sufficient synoptic
moisture lingers, lake effect showers are expected to develop
early in the morning and continue through the day. with
initially northeast winds the lake effect will focus south-
southwest of the lake, farther west/southwest into north central
ohio than is normal. outside of the lake effect, an inverted
surface trough extending into the great lakes behind the
departing low pressure is expected to drop across the area
thursday afternoon or evening as an embedded shortwave aloft
also rotates through the region. this will likely bring a more
organized batch of showers to the entire area and also cause
ongoing lake effect to briefly enhance with the trough passage.
additional rain amounts thursday will generally be under a
quarter-inch, though it`s possible locations near and just
southwest of cleveland see more due to lake enhancement.
temperatures will rise no more than a few degrees and may even
cool later in the afternoon, with highs staying in the 40s. it
will be blustery with northerly winds gusting 20-30 mph.

key message 2...
once the inverted trough sinks south of the area thursday
evening, shower activity is expected to become primarily lake-
driven for the end of the week and into the weekend. upper
troughing will be deepest overhead thursday night and friday
before slowly weakening and moving east this weekend. initially
north-northeast winds thursday night are expected to gradually
back more northerly on friday and more northwesterly through the
weekend. conditions will be most conducive to lake effect
overnight thursday night through early saturday beneath the
heart of the upper trough. during this timeframe, 500mb
temperatures will bottom out at around -30c over 12-15c lake
waters as synoptic moisture lingers. the mid-levels will start
to gradually warm and dry on saturday, though it is expected to
be a slow ramp down of lake effect with activity not expected to
completely end until sunday night or early monday when the
surface ridge axis builds into the area. outside of the lake
effect, there may still be a few sprinkles or light showers
across northwest oh on friday beneath the deep troughing aloft.
conditions should trend completely dry across western portions
of the area for the weekend.

the main focus for more organized/intense lake effect is
expected to be a connection to lake huron. this connection is
expected to initially set-up west of cleveland (and perhaps
briefly as far west as sandusky and mansfield) thursday night
into friday. from there, it will gradually shift east across the
cleveland metro area later friday into early saturday and into
the more traditional snowbelt of far northeast oh and northwest
pa through the weekend. outside of this connection there will be
some less-organized lake effect at times. the most precip will
tend to fall in the higher terrain immediately downwind of the
lake given the short fetch. lake effect will ebb and flow in
terms of organized and intensity through the event as various
subtle vort maxes or shortwaves rotate through. there are hints
that lake effect may peak in intensity early friday, and then
again late friday afternoon through early saturday.

in terms of precip types, it will become cold enough aloft
thursday night through saturday night for snow to mix in with
the rain, especially away from the lake and during the overnight
and morning hours. the main uncertainty involves milder surface
temperatures, owing to a lack of arctic influence and
modification from the mild great lake waters. in general, am
expecting temperatures thursday, friday, and saturday nights to
bottom out in the low-mid 30s away from the lake where lake
effect clouds/showers continue. it will be difficult to see
temperatures dip to freezing or below where lake effect
continues, though a few spots above 1200` elevation may. chillier
sub-freezing values are more likely across western portions of
our area each night where clouds may dry clearing out at times.
locations closer to the lake will struggle to fall below the
upper 30s or lower 40s. daytime highs will only reach the upper
30s and lower 40s on friday, before inching up a degree or two
each day but staying in the 40s saturday and sunday.

given strong instability and cold air aloft through early
saturday, more convective lake effect will be able to mix with
graupel or wet snow even during the daytime hours and
potentially near the lakeshore as well. however, given the
marginal low-level thermals, the greatest potential for precip
to mix with or change to all snow for a length of time will be
during the overnight/morning hours and away from lake erie. the
odds for impactful accumulations remain quite low and the
official forecast has no more than very light amounts away from
the lake. however, it`s possible measurable snow occurs in parts
of the area, mainly beneath any stronger lake huron connection
early friday and again friday night into early saturday. amounts
would not be more than a localized inch or two, but given the
conducive setup and convective nature amounts higher than what
we can put in the forecast this far in advance are possible.
outside of this more intense huron-connected band, it`s possible
the higher terrain east of i-79 in pennsylvania is cold enough
to see a light dusting of snow one of those nights.

key message 3...
there`s good agreement that this weekend`s trough will continue
exiting east the first half of next week as a ridge builds east
out of the central u.s. surface high pressure is likely to move
overhead the first half of next week, leading to a period of dry
and tranquil weather as temperatures very slowly moderate.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
the main message for aviation weather will be vfr conditions
expected today into this evening. high and mid level clouds will
increase today followed by gradual lowering of ceilings this
evening through tonight. eventually mvfr ceilings will move from
west to east into the area overnight. a developing low pressure
system and cold front will track across the area tonight with
rain showers likely. mvfr visibility 3sm to 5sm will be
possible later tonight associated with the rain showers.
with the low pressure system tracking across the region late
today into tonight, winds will shift around during the next 24
hours. winds will start out as a light southerly flow gradually
becoming northeasterly later today into tonight. winds will
eventually become northerly by thursday morning behind the cold
front.

outlook...non-vfr will be likely with low ceilings and periods
of rain showers thursday and friday, then lingering across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through the weekend.
some wet snow showers may also be possible at the end of the
week and weekend. wind gusts to 35 mph are possible on thursday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will cross the lake late this afternoon, with
deepening low pressure tracking through the upper ohio valley
tonight. a trough will linger behind the departing low through
the end of the week before high pressure slowly builds in from
the west to end the weekend and start next week. after a
tranquil day today, northeast winds will ramp up to 15-20kt
tonight. winds will shift more northerly and increase to 20-30kt
on thursday. waves are expected to peak at 4 to 7 feet thursday
into thursday night. winds will gradually shift more northwest
friday and through the weekend, remaining elevated at 15-25kt
through early saturday before slowly relaxing through the
weekend. we will need high-end small craft advisories for all
nearshore waters starting tonight or early thursday. the risk
of a gale on thursday remains non-zero but under 20%. there is
some uncertainty regarding how long the advisories will need to
run and the lake will be tranquil through the day today, so will
let the day shift take a look at one more run of guidance
before hoisting the scas.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 111025
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
525 am est wed nov 11 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers develop and spread across the area this afternoon
and early evening. an isolated thunderstorm possible portions
of northwest indiana this afternoon and early evening with
isolated wind gusts of over 40 mph possible with any showers
or isolated storms.

- lake effect showers impact areas mainly west of us-31 in
northwest indiana and far southwest lower michigan thursday
through friday night. snow is expected to mix in by late
thursday night into friday morning. additional lake effect
snow showers are possible early saturday. some slushy snow
accumulations are possible with the lake effect, mainly early
friday morning across northwest indiana.

- below normal temperatures thursday through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 340 am est wed nov 11 2026

water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a sharp upper level
short wave across western iowa. an eastern pacific jet streak
progressing through the base of this trough will induce sfc
cyclogenesis across southeast iowa/west central illinois this
morning into this afternoon as sfc reflection reaches east central
indiana by this evening. low level winds will back this afternoon in
advance of this trough and strengthening low level flow in this
deepening phase will allow for northward push to low/mid level theta-
e boundary currently displaced to the south-southwest of the local
area. given strongly forced nature to this setup and respectable low-
mid level rh developing, have maintained likely rain shower pops
from west to east this afternoon into this evening. while there is a
period of stronger advection this afternoon, the short duration of
this advection will make it difficult to realize any appreciable
instability. moistening low and mid levels combined with maintenance
of some drier sub-cloud air could provide some favorable
theta-e differentials for a period of gusty winds associated
with the showers (perhaps sps level gusts over 40 mph) late this
afternoon into early this evening. maturing nature to low level
baroclinic zone and sharpness of low/mid level trough may
support a deformation- band of rain into this evening. otherwise
today, the warm advection regime will provide above normal
temperatures despite the increased cloud over with highs from
the mid 50s north to low to mid 60s south.

passage of the initial upper trough this evening will set the stage
for favorable storm track for several additional disturbances in
northerly upper flow to bring reinforcing shots of cold air
into the southern great lakes region later tonight into friday.
lake effect rain showers are expected to start as early as later
this evening as shallow lake induced instability develops.
initially this lake effect may manifest as cellular convective
mode given some synoptic low level troughing expected across the
southern great lakes and shallow nature to instability depth.
the more impressive synoptic trough will dive south across the
southern great lakes on thursday, with a period of isolated to
scattered rain showers area-wide as this trough drops south. in
the wake of this disturbance, flow profiles should begin to
align more favorably down long-axis of lake michigan for a more
dominant single band event thursday night into friday. lake
temperatures remain above normal, generally in the 80-90
percentile for mid november. while this will aid in lake induced
instability, it does also raise questions of low level thermal
modification downwind of lake michigan and influences on precip
types. have generally followed idea of most of higher-res
guidance in greater potential of snow overnight a bit away from
the lakeshore where this modification of low level thermals will
not be as dramatic. after 06z thursday night, depth of cold air
should overcome marginal low level wet bulbs for a period of
mainly snow shower ptypes especially away from the lakeshore.
there are also some indications that another synoptic mid/upper
trough could be rotating cyclonically across the western great
lakes which could provide some increased lift to nudge areas to
snow ptype for a brief window closer to the lakeshore also. of
course, plenty of uncertainties as to exact low level flow
trajectories and timing of this mid level short waves, but
confidence is increasing in the potential of some localized
inland slushy accumulations of an inch or two across portions of
nw indiana and possibly far sw lower michigan early friday
morning.

loss of stronger synoptic forcing during the day thursday combined
with diurnal tendencies should take p-types back to rain during the
day as low level flow trajectories remain favorable for an extended
period of lake effect precipitation. another upper level spoke to
the broad upper level negative height anomaly is progged to dive
south to the southern great lakes friday night into early saturday.
low level gradient will be a bit weaker by this time which could
support some land breeze sharpening of lake effect banding. the main
question for friday night/saturday am will be potential of enough
low level airmass modification to keep p-types as mainly rain.
one wildcard will be if stronger low level lift induced by
stronger convergence with possible land breeze enhancement can
be enough to changeover precip types for a time. depth of lake
induced instability does appear to start to diminish during the
overnight hours friday night. there is also some question as to
whether favored area of banding may shift west of the local
area briefly friday night in response to the stronger synoptic
forcing.

lake effect rain showers continue saturday but should be in a
diminishing state saturday afternoon as inversion heights
continue to crash with the approach of the low level ridge
axis. thermal advections will be weak through the weekend which
will keep below normal temperatures in place. the longwave
ridging across central conus should begin to shift off to the
east middle of next week which will allow some moderation of
temperatures and potentially some additional rain chances in the
day 7 to 9 period.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 524 am est wed nov 11 2026

vfr outside of some early morning patchy fog through mid afternoon.
a frontal zone and developing sfc reflection then drop through
ksbn late this afternoon/early this evening, and kfwa this evening
with showers and northerly winds up to near 12 knots (briefly
gusting 20 knots plus) along and behind. ceilings drop into the
low vfr or high mvfr category during this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 am est wed nov 11 2026

.key messages...

- light rain overspreads se mi this afternoon and evening.

- a much colder airmass arrives thursday, triggering gusty north wind
and lake effect rain/snow showers thursday through saturday. minor
wet snow accumulations will be possible in the thumb.

&&

.aviation...

high cloud has been expanding across southeast michigan this morning
while the next weather system churns upstream. observations with
this system so far are showing drier low levels than models, which
holds true locally as well where dewpoints are generally in the low-
mid 30s. this should favor vfr ceilings through the daytime hours,
although a band of rain is forecast to develop between ptk and mbs
where rain will try to saturate the column fully. the northern half
of the airspace will see a lowering ceiling trend earlier in the
night (between 00z-04z) to mvfr. dtw/yip/det will hold on to the dry
air longer and may struggle for most of the night to generate any
meaningful low level moisture. eventually though, the extensive
stratus plume currently over southern ontario will dive south in
addition to lake moisture to lower ceilings by early thursday. by
this point, winds will have organized uniformly out of the
northwest. by 12z thursday, an inverted surface trough begins to
release south and reaches mbs before the end of the taf period
characterized by a sharp wind shift to the northeast.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet late this afternoon-
evening. high tonight into thursday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 410 am est wed nov 11 2026

discussion...

pseudo-zonal flow maintains benign conditions across the region this
morning before a significant pattern shift arrives later today and
carries through the late week. this shift is driven by a powerful
pacific jet streak working into western bc, causing downstream
trough amplification from hudson bay all the way down to the mid-
atlantic states. a shortwave embedded within nw flow over the
midwest first reaches the local area this evening with the attendant
height falls and pva ushering in deepening moisture with time. this
brings a 40-60% chance of mainly light rain late afternoon and into
this evening. a second shortwave originating from central canada
reaches the great lakes late this evening, marking the lead edge of
an arctic air mass. as these two waves merge overhead, a deepening
low will emerge east of the area and facilitate a period of
prolonged northerly cold air advection thursday into saturday.

the initial cold front is marked by an uptick in convective rain
shower coverage and gusty northeast winds thursday morning. this
precip works through from north to south with a brief lull before
the inbound cold air induces enough over-lake instability for lake
effect showers to kick off. prolonged nne sfc-850mb flow maintained
over lake huron allows a multi-band character to emerge thursday
evening, reaching peak strength friday morning as the next spoke of
pva arrives within deep cyclonic flow wrapping around the sprawling
upper low retrograding into the northern great lakes. these bands
will be predisposed to set up over the western/central thumb and far
eastern thumb, including the port huron vicinity. daytime
temperatures hold in the 40s on thursday with rain the predominant p-
type, then melting snow gradually takes over thursday night into
friday.

850mb temps fall to around -6c thursday night, setting up delta-t
over the lake of nearly 20c. model soundings highlight 400-700 j/kg
of lake induced cape and impressive boundary layer omega supporting
localized moderate to heavy precip rates where the bands ultimately
set up through friday morning. despite the colder air and heavier
rates, ambient dew points in the lower 30s and near record high
water temperatures (mid to upper 50s f) in the lake huron southern
basin will result in significant melting of hydrometeors. immediate
lakeshore areas stay mild enough to see nil snow accumulation, but
just a few miles inland wbz heights falling below 1000 ft will offer
potential for pockets of wet accumulations on grassy surfaces to
around 1" by noon friday. this is supported by 70-80% probability
for minor accumulations in nbm and refs ensemble data. a small
handful of individual ensemble members and operational model runs
advertise extreme snowfall amounts but these appear to be driven by
unrealistic slrs given the anticipated thermal profile and warm
ground.

synoptic flow backs to nnw friday night, saturday, and likely into
sunday which confines the lake effect banding to the northeastern
thumb. elsewhere, subsidence maintains dry conditions and looks to
eventually reduce coverage of lake effect clouds. the 850mb thermal
trough keeps temps on the cool side of normal through the weekend -
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s/lower 30s. a period of
rebounding heights ensues early next week as the longwave trough
releases eastward. this favors dry and stable conditions with a
gradual warming trend.

marine...

high pressure influence gradually exits the central great lakes
today with weak/variable flow while the next low pressure system
deepens and takes aim at the ohio valley. winds pick up considerably
over the waterways tonight as the system moves east. expect modest-
strong north-northeasterly flow, with a heightened wind and wave
response. latest model data continues to advertise a brief period of
gusts to near gales thursday morning for portions of lake huron, but
still looks marginal enough to preclude any gale-related headlines.
small craft advisories are in effect for all nearshore waters for
thursday. persistent troughing keeps winds elevated friday, albeit
with even lower chances for gales. extensions will likely be needed
for some of the small crafts, depending on how long the constricted
gradient holds on. potential exists for a waterspout or two during
this time-frame as shower activity arises.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 pm est thursday for lhz421-422-
441.

small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm est thursday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.