Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
640 pm est sat jan 31 2026

.what has changed...
cold temperatures are still anticipated through sunday night,
however the likelihood of the issuance of cold weather
advisories the next two nights remains low. confidence in
accumulating snow late next week continues to slowly increase,
however overall confidence in accumulations and resulting
impacts is still low.

&&

.key messages...
1) cold weather will continue through sunday night with
temperatures below 20 degrees and overnight lows near to below
zero. wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder are
expected tonight into sunday morning and will allow for
continued frostbite and exposure risks.

2) light snow chances remain through tonight and again on monday,
which could produce some marginal travel impacts.

3) there is increasing potential for active winter weather late
next week. accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are
possible, but confidence remains low at this time.&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an arctic air mass will remain in place over the area through
the remainder of the weekend, resulting in continued frigid
temperatures. widespread cloud cover across the area has
resulted in teens in the single digits and teens this afternoon
and expect lows in the 0 to -5 degree range tonight. winds will
be a bit more elevated with northwest winds reaching 5 to 10
mph in several locations, resulting in minimum wind chills
between -5 and -15 degrees tonight. the colder wind chills
closer to -15 degrees (possibly a little bit colder in
localized areas) will occur in typical cold spots, which is
supported by 12z href probabilities. similar to last night,
cloud cover may limit radiational cooling which could lead to
warmer minimum temperatures and warmer wind chills. will need
to keep an eye on satellite and wind trends; a cold weather
advisory may need to be introduced for tonight if winds trend
higher and/or clouds clear more than currently anticipated.

temperatures will be slightly warmer (widespread mid to upper
teens) during the day sunday and sunday night will feature one
last night of near zero to subzero temperatures for at least a
couple of days. sunday night`s wind chills will generally be in
the -5 to -10 degree range, although once again the typical cold
spots may be a few degrees cooler. do not anticipate needing a
cold weather advisory at this point. expect temperatures to
"warm" into the 20s during the day monday.

despite the lack of cold weather headlines, the continued cold
will continue to produce similar impacts on infrastructure,
people, and animals through at least the end of the weekend.
some impacts may persist into the work week as temps stay below
freezing.

key message 2...
an upper trough has pushed south across lake erie and residual
moisture behind the feature will produce continued chances of
light snow showers through this evening. have certainly seen a
downward trend in snowfall rates and dendrite size with the loss
of the best forcing, so any additional accumulations should be
minimal. however, given the sub-freezing pavement temperatures,
any snowfall rates that are higher than flurries will likely
produce at least a dusting on roadways which could result in
additional slippery travel. more persistent snow may also
produce brief reductions in visibility.

snow showers will diminish by sunday morning at the latest and
the next disturbance will bring low-end chances of light snow
showers to the entire area on monday with some lake-enhanced
snow showers (influenced by the open water on upstream great
lakes) possible into early tuesday. accumulations should be
light and any impacts would be similar to today.

key message 3...
deterministic guidance continues to suggest the potential for
widespread snowfall and the return of cold weather as low
pressure pushes southeast from the upper great lakes late in the
week. however, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the evolution and track of the low and the resulting
placement and timing of snow accumulations/impacts across the
area. any impacts would likely occur at some point between thursday
night and friday evening. stay tuned for updates!

&&


.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
saturated 925mb air will primarily drive mvfr ceilings for much
of the duration of the taf, and sites currently not mvfr will
likely get there over the next few hours. high pressure will
build in from the south and sky cover will decrease through
sunday with few-sct prevailing. north/northwest winds 7-10kts.

outlook...periodic non-vfr due to low clouds and/or snow
expected through this wednesday.

&&

.marine...
in the dead of winter and surprisingly no flags are expected
throughout this marine forecast package. wind speeds are expected to
remain between 5 to 15 knots. northernly winds will slowly back to
the west tonight through monday as the high pressure moves east from
the mid mississippi valley across the tennessee valley. winds will
finally veer to the west monday night through tuesday as a very weak
cold front tracks east across lake erie. behind the front, west to
northwest winds are expected through wednesday as another ridge
builds into the region. persistent cold air in place and a
relatively weak wind flow will allow extensive ice cover on lake
erie to expand and thicken further through the middle of next
week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...26
marine...fz

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
644 pm est sat jan 31 2026

.key messages...

- wind chills tonight through sunday morning of -10f to -15f. a
cold weather advisory is in effect for some counties.

- a clipper system monday brings less than 1 inch of snow, but
could cause slippery travel for the morning and evening
commutes.

- not as cold this week with high temperatures well into the 20s
at times.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 pm est sat jan 31 2026

clouds and snow showers (flurries) continue to sink south this
afternoon as friday`s upper-level trough is now pivoting across the
florida panhandle. model guidance suggests expansive high pressure
along the ks-ok border back builds north through the midwest bringing
calm conditions and decreasing clouds. these light winds were a
double-edge sword when deciding on a cold weather advisory for about
half of the forecast area. light wind will allow temperatures to
radiate out amid fresh snowpack while also altering the air
temperature needed to meet or exceed a -15f wind chill. conditions
are overall marginal, but clearing skies and fresh snow were the tip
in favor of a headline. sunday features mostly sunny skies in the
eastern half of the cwa and temperatures in the 20s.

a clipper system tracks through the upper great lakes on monday. the
best moisture is located near the low center across far southern
ontario. this greatly reduces local snow amounts as this breezes
through. an elevated dgz (located about 5-8k ft higher than recent
days) along with antecedent dry air points to a quick hitting
dose of light snow (< 1") that begins right near the monday
morning commute in the greater south bend area. lake enhancement
could increase snowfall rates for a brief time for lake-
adjacent counties. while low snow amounts are anticipated,
travel conditions could be hazardous at times monday. snow ends
from west to east monday afternoon, with snow perhaps lingering
in fort wayne for the monday evening commute.

northwest flow behind this clipper lacks any prolonged arctic
bite with wind vectors parallel to 850mb isotherms. this means
temperatures will continue to climb well into the 20s not only
on monday, but tuesday as well. northwest flow sharpens
wednesday in response to a developing low over the ohio valley
that is poised to pass south of our forecast area at this time.
yet, because of the northwest flow, cannot rule out a period of
lake effect snow with a tight 850-mb thermal gradient noted.

late week, we continue to monitor a developing low dropping out of
canada and into michigan which threatens to bring a period of snow
to our area friday/saturday, with colder temperatures in its
wake.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 638 pm est sat jan 31 2026

predominantly vfr conditions for the taf, with the exception of
mvfr ceilings at kfwa this evening. a broad cloud shield
(ceilings 2500-3500ft) extends from hillsdale, mi southwest
into columbia city, in and marion, in. clearing thanks to
subsidence behind the exiting wave is expanding south and
eastward-so have a tempo at kfwa to account for this clearing
over the next three hours. otherwise, expect clear skies and
maybe a few high clouds into the day tomorrow.

some of the guidance suggests either a brief period of mvfr
ceilings and/or br development in the 12-15z timeframe at both
terminals...however confidence was too low to include in the taf
for now. there is some br at kc65 in plymouth, in (5sm), but
outside of that the sites are 10sm. it`s certainly possible with
n-nw winds becoming light and variable until tomorrow afternoon,
when they strengthen from the s-sw to around 5-10kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est sunday for
inz006>009-017-018-022>027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est sunday for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est sunday for miz080-
081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
556 pm est sat jan 31 2026

.key messages...

- cold overnight with wind chills ranging between -15f to -5f.

- sunshine tomorrow leads to temps climbing into the low-mid 20s,
with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

- chance for snow showers monday with expected snow accumulations
under an inch.

&&

.aviation...

the clearing line is making steady southward progress across se mi.
based on extrapoloation from satellite the clearing should advance
across the metro detroit terminals in the 00z to 01z time frame.
however, subtle veering of the winds over central and southern lake
huron to the nne after 00z may drive some additional mvfr based lake
clouds into the metro detroit terminals overnight. there is enough
hi res guidance to support this that a tempo group will be warranted
for ptk and all the detroit terminals, with det possibly
experiencing the more prolonged period low clouds. surface riding
and dry air will take hold across se mi on sunday, supporting clear
skies and light winds.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 351 pm est sat jan 31 2026

discussion...

subtle backing of low-level flow from northeast to north-northeast
will continue to advect dry air across the western half of the cwa
which has and will erode cloud cover. some reinforcement or
reinvigoration of cloud cover across the eastern third of the cwa
will be likely late tonight and through the mid morning hours as the
influence of lake huron remains in tact, tapping into the ice free
areas through the central basin. this will have implications on
overnight temperature trends, with cloud free regions quickly
dropping towards the 0 degree mark and into the negative single
digits for overnight lows. insulation from low-level cloud will hold
overnight temperatures in the positive single digits, but any
clearing observed through the overnight hours will quickly plummet
temperatures towards or below the 0 degree mark. regardless, the
trend of very cold temperatures continues, and communities should
expect highly variable wind chills that range between -5 to -15f
before daybreak.

a ridge of high pressure builds over the great lakes tomorrow with
ridge axis centering right over michigan by the afternoon. this will
erode any lingering cloud cover, bringing mostly sunny skies through
the day. the exception will be along the lake huron shoreline, where
the north-northwest flow may help maintain some linger cloud cover
through the first half of the day before passage of the trough axis
shifts flow from the west. weak solar insolation will help boost
temperatures into the low 20s for a high. cold again overnight monday
morning with lows in the single digits and wind chills near zero or
below.

passage of a weak shortwave and extended pv filament will bring snow
chance from west to east across se mi from 11z to 18z on monday. the
combination of antecedent dry conditions with deep column dry air
and weak forcing looks to keep snow totals in check with this
initial push of snow, under an inch and likely to a half-inch or less.
diurnal influence will help support weak surface instability under
the backdrop of mid- level subsidence which brings increasing chances
for lake effect snow showers in the wake of the passing trough
through the evening which can bring localized enhanced totals to an
additional dusting. lake effect chances to end late monday into early
tuesday morning, with lower confidence for renewed lake effect
chances tuesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave clips northern
lower michigan under decreasing h850 temperatures.

the strongest signal for snow chances will be late thursday into
friday morning as a clipper system drops into the midwest and great
lakes. pending the final track of the low, the stronger west flow
will allow for milder air across the plains to advect through the
southern great lakes, bringing the chance to see the warmest
temperatures of the week towards the freezing mark. the pacific
moisture associated with this system brings elevated chances for
accumulating snowfall over an inch, with nbm probabilistic data
showing ~60 percent chance for an inch or greater.

marine...

northerly winds weaken through the evening as the northern edge of
plains high pressure expands over the central great lakes. this high
brings light (<15kt) winds to close out the weekend. a weak clipper
arrives late day monday but aside for scattered light snow showers,
brings minimal marine impacts with accompanying winds holding at or
below 20kts. another high dropping out of the upper midwest then
follows for midweek bringing quiet marine weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...am
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.