Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 140626
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
226 am edt sun jun 14 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing confidence in isolated strong to severe
storms developing along and east of i77 this afternoon. primary
concern remains strong, gusty winds, although an embedded spin
up tornado is possible.

&&

.key messages...
1) spc has issued a day 1 slight risk for portions of the mahoning
valley and a marginal risk as far west as the i77 corridor given the
increasing potential for severe weather this afternoon. there
remains some uncertainty regarding how showers this morning will
impact future convection.

2) an active pattern will bring additional chances of precipitation
this week with increasing confidence in a potent low impacting the
area late wednesday into thursday. some strong to severe storms are
possible, especially wednesday night into thursday.

3) cooler temperatures expected to persist this week into next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
today, a cold front will push east across the area bringing the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. initial showers
this morning should primarily be a result from decaying convection
upstream and weak isentropic lift pushing north from south of the
area. given the overall weak environment this morning, chances for
thunder are fairly limited.

a second round of more organized convection is expected to move
across the area this afternoon into the evening hours along and
ahead of the aforementioned cold front. this round of convection
will be support by a strong short-wave pushing along the southern
edge of an upper level trough and a strong prefrontal llj of 20-30
knots. in addition, increased southwest flow will increase dewpoints
today into the 60s. the best environment for any severe weather
looks to be along and east of i77 in ohio and into nw pennsylvania
where there is the best chance for some destabilization between
rounds of rain. overall convection is expected to remain linear as
it pushes east with the primary concern being strong wind gusts. spc
has also now highlighted the aforementioned portion of the cwa in a
2% tor for today given the potential for embedded rotation within
the line. the overall outlook from spc has not changed much this
morning with portions of the mahoning valley in a day 1 slight risk
with a marginal extending further wester to the i77 corridor. it is
worth noting that there is some uncertainty regarding how the
initial round of precipitation this morning will impact later
convection chances as there is a potential it acts to stabilize the
environment a bit more than currently forecast.

in addition to the severe potential today, there is a potential for
localized heavy rainfall within the strongest storms. pwat values
climbing to 1.5-1.7 inches with generally skinny cape profiles
suggests the potential for heavy rain, although given the cooler air
advecting in, the warm cloud layers throughout the day should
gradually decrease. overall impacts should be limited to localized
ponding on roadways and in typical flood prone areas. any additional
flooding concerns should be limited to areas that see multiple
rounds of heavy precipitation today. to highlight this heavy rain
potential, wpc has issued a day 1 marginal ero for the entire
area.

key message 2...
the general pattern this week will consist of a broad upper level
trough across the eastern two-thirds of the country with multiple
embedded shortwaves expected to move east along the trough. this
will result in multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms,
including late tuesday into wednesday as a weak boundary pushes
east.

the more notable, and potentially significant, system to impact the
area is forecast to occur wednesday into thursday. a surface low
originating near the lee of the rockies is expected to strengthen as
it pushes east-northeast into the great lakes region on wednesday.
this potent surface low will be centered over the southern portion
of the region, pushing a warm front east late wednesday followed
promptly by a cold front. some model are beginning to suggest this
low beginning to occlude just north of the area, potentially leaving
northern ohio near the triple point. synoptically, this system will
be supported with strong mid-level energy coupled with a very strong
upper level jet. although there remains quite a bit of uncertainty
with this system given how far out it is, there is growing concern
regarding the severe weather potential wednesday night as a strong
llj (some models suggesting up to 60 knots) nudge northeast, further
enhancing the already strong support for storm development. with the
strong southwest flow, increased moisture advection will quickly
increase dewpoints into the 60s overnight. the biggest uncertainty
regarding this system at this point is how much instability the area
will have to work with given the diurnally unfavorable timing.
models continue to suggest that areas to the west of the cwa may see
better instability, but confidence is low that this would hinder
strong to severe convection over the area. the storm prediction
center continues to highlight northern ohio in the day 5 swo.

in addition to the potential for severe weather, the area will
likely be impacted by an anomalous strong wind field for this time
of year. given the llj and mixing heights, the entire area could see
sustained winds of 20-25 mph with localized gusts in excess of 45
mph wednesday night through thursday.

.key message 3...
cooler temperatures arrive today and are expected to stick
around as a dominant ridging pattern develops over the western
us. highs today will only climb into the mid to upper 70s before
overnight lows fall into the 50s for much of the area. in
portions of nw pa, overnight lows may fall into the mid to upper
40s, which is well below average for this time of year. these
unseasonably cool temperatures are expected to stick around with
the cpc 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both suggesting below
average temperatures into the end of june.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
scattered light showers may lift northeast across the area
overnight, but do not anticipate any impacts to cigs/vsbys given
the relatively dry lower levels. there`s a chance of shower
coverage and isolated thunderstorm chances increasing after 12z
this morning, but most models have trended drier for this
morning. the potential for cold frontal thunderstorms has
trended later as well and as of now it appears that storms will
be at ktol/kfdy at around 17z and kyng by 20z. in general, the
best chance of non-vfr vsbys/cigs will occur with the storms and
frontal passage, however cold air advection behind showers and
thunderstorms may result in lingering mvfr ceilings ne oh/nw pa
terminals through 06z monday.

winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 knots overnight
before shifting to the northwest and increasing to 10 to 15
knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots behind the cold front this
afternoon into this evening. afternoon/early evening storms
could produce gusts to 30 to 40 knots with locally higher gusts
possible in stronger storms. winds will diminish a bit after 00z
monday.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
forecast tuesday afternoon through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with
winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early sunday. a
cold front will cross the lake on sunday, allowing winds to
shift to the northwest. a period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is
likely in the western basin of lake erie sunday
afternoon/evening, but confidence in small craft advisory
conditions occurring is low at this point. headlines may be
needed if winds trend a bit higher.

from there, small craft advisories/beach hazards statements may
be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching
strong cold front wednesday. nbm guidance suggests that winds
could reach or exceed 30 knots on thursday so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
117 am edt sun jun 14 2026

.key messages...

- a marginal risk for severe weather remains intact for tonight,
mainly to the west of interstate 69. the primary risk is for
isolated damaging wind gusts and some brief heavy downpours,
but isolated large hail is possible. the main timeframe of
this isolated severe weather risk is roughly from 10 pm edt
to 4am edt.

- dry and cooler conditions to begin next week, temperatures
moderate some into the middle of the week but there will be
increased chances of showers and storms for the tuesday
through thursday period.

- there is a high swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
sunday into sunday evening. life threatening waves and
currents are expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 334 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

the potential of isolated severe storms continues to be the main
short term forecast concern.

isolated to scattered showers and storms have formed this afternoon
from central il into portions of northeast illinois. these
showers have developed along the leading edge of an amplifying
low level theta-e ridge nosing to the southern lake michigan
vicinity this afternoon. convective coverage appears to be
enhanced across central il due to some contribution of a
convectively enhanced vort max moving across these locations.
downstream airmass locally is more stable at this time, but
gradual eastward advection of this low level higher theta-e air
should lead to some destabilization from west to east. some pre-
frontal confluence should provide best moisture pooling into
this evening from northeast illinois into southwest lower
michigan where an mlcape axis of 1500 j/kg is expected to reach.
while diurnal timing of storms is somewhat unfavorable for
severe weather, the southern great lakes do appear to be
situated at southern extent of stronger westerlies with rap
short term progs suggesting 30 to 35 knots of effective shear
early this evening across far n in/s lower mi. the potential
exists for isolated convection across the west as early as 22
or 23z, but showers and storms should become more numerous late
evening into the overnight, particularly along the pre-frontal
confluent axis across the northwest where instability should be
maximized. some modest mid level lapse rates of around 7 deg
c/km also should advect into the region and should also help
sustain some modest mlcape past peak diurnal timing. overall
setup still appears marginal for severe storms with areas west
of i-69 still appearing to be in best juxtaposition of
shear/instability for isolated severe threat. isolated wind
appears to be primary threat but cannot rule out a narrow window
of isolated marginally severe hail in the 03z-06z timeframe at
the leading edge of slightly steeper plume of mid level lapse
rates. scattered showers/embedded storms should continue into
sunday morning as lagging mid/upper level trough interacts with
low/mid level baroclinic. the greater potential of severe
weather on sunday still appears to remain focused east of the
local area given frontal progression east of the area by peak
diurnal timing. otherwise, it will be much cooler on sunday with
breezy conditions.

quiet weather is expected for sunday night into monday as the cooler
and drier airmass settles into the region. another upper level
short wave is expected to dive south from south central canada
monday night into tuesday with some renewed convective forcing.
however, the opportunity for any significant moisture transport
appears to be limited given the overall westerly flow regime.
showers and storms appear likely on tuesday, although with some
moisture limitations have some concern that blended pops may be
a bit aggressive. by the middle of the week, more significant
pacific energy should top western conus ridge and set up a
potential of better northward surge of low level theta-gradient
into the local area, with perhaps a chance of better
shower/storm organization heading into wednesday/thursday. as
previous forecast mentioned, still a good deal of uncertainty
here with where exact frontal/warm frontal placement will be for
middle of week with some convective modulation of this position
possible. a break in shower/storm chances appears likely for
thursday and friday, but the potential of additional nw flow
waves and likely existence of stronger low/mid level theta-e
somewhere in the vicinity in this pattern argues for additional
precip chances by later next weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 106 am edt sun jun 14 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions at the terminals this
period, with potential for drops to ifr in any heavier showers
or storms. incoming cold front with showers and storms along it
(storms weakening in intensity as of this writing) will cross
from west to east today. as of this moment a decent storm was
drifting eastward towards the lake mi shoreline, and could
impact ksbn within the next couple hours (if it survives on the
north end). additional showers/storms are possible as the front
gets on land, with a weakening trend through the morning (may
not reach kfwa, but it`s possible we at least get rain
showers/mvfr ceilings). otherwise, convection could build up
once again in the east towards the 14-18z timeframe (kfwa), so
have a prob30 group for the later timing. once the front passes
through expect a wind shift from sw to nw through the day, with
gusts up to 25-30kts possible through mid-late afternoon. expect
clearing skies towards the overnight hours, with winds
lightening up.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from 7 am cdt this morning through
this evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for miz177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1153 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a few strong thunderstorms move through southeast
michigan late tonight and in the morning.

- dry monday, but showers and possible storms return tuesday
afternoon and late wednesday/wednesday night.

- heaviest rainfall looks to be wednesday night, with the potential
to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.aviation...

the mid and high clouds across southern lower mi remain vfr along
and ahead of the cold front settling down from northern lower mi
late tonight. the front remains the focus for expanding coverage of
showers and thunderstorms as it moves through lower mi placing the
best chance of stronger storms toward fnt and mbs where greater
instability holds on longer after midnight. showers grow in coverage
and continue through the morning while storm intensity gradually
weakens as the pattern settles across the rest of se mi through
sunrise.

the added boundary layer moisture provided by the showers/storms
promotes expansion of mvfr ceiling along and behind the front. this
becomes the prevailing condition from the initial wind shift at dtw
to the more northerly wind shift near mbs early in the morning.
improvement into low end vfr follows for the afternoon while renewed
instability keeps scattered showers in play as the wind field
becomes a more general nw flow of cooler and less humid air. showers
diminish while pockets of vfr ceiling below 5000 ft linger into
sunday evening.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance of thunderstorms within
an expanding area of showers late tonight and sunday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for a thunderstorm late tonight and in the morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 937 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

update...

expansion of showers and thunderstorms is on track to occur across
central and southern lower mi, developing both overhead and from the
west toward midnight. the best chance for strong to severe storms is
from midnight until about 3 am, followed by increasing coverage of
showers but decreasing intensity of storms through sunday morning.

mid evening surface analysis indicates the cold front settling just
south of the straits as low 60s td pools in the leading moisture
axis through central lower mi. this low level setup is shown in
hourly mesoanalysis and short term forecasts to support mlcape near
1000 j/kg north of i-69 until fading after 4 am through sunrise. the
approach of the mid level wave erases the subtle cap that has been
in place along the bulk of the front west of lake huron, and also
further improves an already stout wind field. the profile starts out
with moderate low level curvature and transitions quickly toward
more straight-line as the cold front fills in. convective mode has a
chance for at least elevated mesocyclone structure to support hail
and then damaging wind in any linear transitions with time. storm
intensity decreases while enough elevated instability remains to
support increasing coverage of showers as the front moves through
the region and the short wave overhead through sunday morning.

prev discussion...
issued at 312 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

discussion...

a seasonably strong polar upper-level low (541 dam at 500 mb)
residing over northern ontario looks to remain nearly stationary for
the next 7 days. this will allow the tracks of the upper-level wave
train with the prevailing jet stream to reside over or even south of
the great lakes region for the bulk of the extended period. this
setup will bring periodic chances of rain showers and possible
thunderstorms, along with near-normal (slightly below) temperatures.

the first round of activity will move through this evening into
sunday morning (from north to south), as a cold front slowly sinks
south. a narrow but healthy moisture plume (pw values up to 1.5
inches) and an 850-700 mb theta-e ridge are tracking through the
northern third of the cwa this evening. however, instability looks
to be modest, with mucapes around 1000 j/kg (better instability over
northern lower michigan with colder 500 mb temps). none-the-less,
with stronger mid-level winds (50-60 knots in the 700-500 mb layer)
and downdraft capes up around 1000 j/kg, isolated damaging winds can
not be ruled out- hence the marginal risk of severe storms north of
i-69. mid-level rates are decent as well, and with wet bulb zero
heights around 10kft, hail is possible as well. however, given the
weak cape and updraft strength, it may be difficult to get much more
than small hail.

the 500 mb shortwave trough axis clears southeast michigan sunday
afternoon, ensuring a dry end to the day as good post wave
subsidence kicks in. however, there has been a slower trend with the
passage; if this continues, enough diurnal instability may build
once again to warrant concern for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms, particularly over eastern sections of cwa.

a damping upper-level wave will move out of the midwest sunday
night, tracking along and south of the southern michigan border. the
environment will be too dry and stable to support any shower
activity over southern lower michigan on monday. a much stronger
upper-level wave pushing into the western great lakes on tuesday
should be sufficient to develop numerous showers and possible
thunderstorms tuesday afternoon into evening. yet another upper
level wave expected to follow quickly, arriving late wednesday and
supporting more rain showers by wednesday evening. euro ensembles
indicate a greater than 90 percent chance of a tenth of an inch or
more of qpf wednesday night, which is in line with the outgoing high
nbm pops.

marine...

several strong to severe thunderstorms are working across central
lake huron this afternoon leading to gusty winds and large hail,
addressed via smws. elsewhere, warming coastal water temperatures
beneath modest low-level winds facilitate favorable mixing this
afternoon, leading to gusts in excess of 25 knots. the small craft
advisory for saginaw bay and the thumb will remain in effect through
this evening due to gusty winds and elevated wave heights, before
the marine boundary-layer decouples. southwesterly gradient winds
then weaken and veer toward the northwest overnight as a cold front
crosses through the central great lakes. this boundary will also
lead to additional showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
strong to marginally severe late tonight and into sunday. winds will
stay elevated around 20 knots, but out of the northwest on sunday.
additional small craft advisories may be needed for saginaw bay and
the thumb during the afternoon/evening hours. breezy conditions
return each afternoon early next week, but dry weather should
prevail midday sunday through at least tuesday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
update.......bt
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.