Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
050
fxus61 kcle 291141
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
641 am est sat nov 29 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure will move northeast through the central great lakes
tonight into sunday, dragging a surface trough across the area
sunday night. weak high pressure will build across the region on
monday. another low pressure system will move northeast from the
gulf coast to the mid-atlantic on tuesday. a strong cold front
will move south through the great lakes late wednesday into
thursday.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
main concern for the near term period will be a period of
moderate to heavy wet snow across northwest ohio later this
evening ahead of a warm front, particularly between 6 and 10
pm. the highest snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour will
be found in lucas county where a winter storm warning remains in
effect for storm total accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. in the
advisory areas along the i-75 corridor, snowfall rates of up to
0.75 inch per hour will be more common. the spatial extent of
the headlines remains unchanged, though the start time has been
pushed back 5 hours from 10 am to 3 pm as this is when the
potential for significant accumulations becomes more likely.

outside of the headline areas, 1 to 3 inches of wet snow is
likely. snowfall rates may reach 0.5 inch per hour across
northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania tonight into sunday
morning. will need to continue to monitor snowfall trends across
inland northwest pennsylvania as the colder air mass in place
may result in higher snow totals closer to 3 or perhaps 4
inches.

low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves northeast through
the great lakes on sunday, with hodographs indicating strong
warm air advection behind the warm front, increasing temperatures
into the mid to perhaps upper 30s by mid to late sunday
morning. cooler air will return by sunday afternoon and evening
as a surface trough quickly sweeps east through the area. winds
may gust in the 30 to 35 mph range ahead of the trough later
this evening and overnight, increasing to 35 to 40 mph by early
sunday afternoon in the wake of cold air advection. will likely
have another brief period of moderate snow with the trough
passage across far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
sunday evening which could result in an additional 1 to 2
inches of accumulation.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
main concern for the short term period will be the potential for
an area-wide snow late monday night into tuesday as a coastal
storm takes shape near the mid-atlantic. at this time, areas
generally along and east of the i-71 corridor have the highest
chances (40 to 50%) of seeing at least 4 inches of snow.
probabilities remain on the lower end (15 to 20%) for 6 inches
of snow, but certainly bears monitoring.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
a strong cold front will move south though the great lakes late
wednesday into thursday, ushering in a cold air mass across the
region, though recent guidance is suggesting this may be more
of a glancing blow as high pressure quickly builds east across
the midwest late thursday into friday. nonetheless, much of the
area could see wind chills in the single digits late thursday
night into friday morning in addition to some high-slr lake
effect snow across the snowbelt behind the front on thursday.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
widespread vfr with some lake effect ceilings at around 3500-5000
ft agl will continue through much of this morning, although
ceilings should rise for a period this afternoon. low pressure
will lift towards the region late this afternoon into this
evening and worsening flight conditions will move northeast into
the region through the remainder of the taf period. snow will
move into ktol/kfdy at around 21z before reaching kcle/kcak near
or shortly after 00z and keri by about 03z. several hours of
snow are expected with warm air advection allowing snow to mix
with rain at ktol/kfdy/kmfd at around 09z sunday. this trend
should continue northeast after the end of the taf period.

flight conditions in precipitation should largely be mvfr with
pockets of ifr vsbys, however most guidance suggests that
ceilings will gradually lower to ifr at most terminals in the
warm sector of the low overnight. will need to monitor upstream
trends and make adjustments to the tafs as needed.

winds will become south/southeasterly and increase to 5 to 10
knots this morning into this afternoon. southeast winds will
develop this evening with sustained winds increasing to 6 to 12
knots. winds will then increase significantly after about 03z
sunday; sustained winds will reach 15 to 20 knots with gusts to
25 to 35 knots anticipated by the end of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are expected as a low pressure system
traverses the region sunday through early monday. there is potential
for prolonged non-vfr conditions in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania due to lake effect snow/rain showers. non-vfr
conditions will be possible again with another low pressure system
on tuesday.

&&

.marine...
hazardous marine conditions will return to lake erie tonight as
strong low pressure lifts northeast into the central great lakes.
offshore winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots tonight with
southwest winds developing and increasing to 30 to 35+ knots in the
open waters of the western basin and both the open waters and
nearshore zones east of the lake erie islands sunday morning
through sunday evening. winds may briefly approach 40 knots in the
open waters of the eastern and central basins. small craft
advisories have been hoisted ahead of the stronger winds this
evening into tonight with gale watches in effect sunday morning into
sunday night (late sunday afternoon in the western basin). a small
craft advisory remains in effect from willowick east to ripley, ny
until 12z/7 am this morning, however a small craft advisory for the
next round of strong winds will be issued upon these zones upon
expiration. water levels will drop in the western basin of lake erie
as gales develop on sunday and a low water advisory will likely be
needed in a subsequent update. northwest winds should diminish
pretty quickly monday morning and winds will gradually become light
and shift offshore by monday afternoon.

southwest winds to around 5 to 10 knots will likely develop late
monday into tuesday with northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots
anticipated behind weak low pressure tuesday afternoon into tuesday
night. winds will increase in response to an approaching cold front
during the day wednesday and marine headlines will likely be needed
at some point wednesday afternoon through thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
sunday for ohz003.
winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
sunday for ohz006>008-017-018-027.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 am est monday
for lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est sunday
for lez144>146.
gale watch from late tonight through late sunday night for
lez144>146-164>166.
small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for
lez147>149.
gale watch from sunday morning through late sunday night for
lez147>149-167>169.
gale watch from late tonight through sunday afternoon for
lez162-163.

&&

$$

synopsis...kahn
near term...kahn
short term...kahn
long term...kahn
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
421
fxus63 kiwx 291117
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
617 am est sat nov 29 2025

.key messages...

- snow is expected to overspread northwest indiana and
southwest lower michigan this morning and across the remainder
of the area into early to mid afternoon.

- winter storm warnings remain in effect for most of the area
with the heaviest snowfall rates greatest impacts expected
late this afternoon into this evening.

- snow diminishes overnight tonight, but lake effect snow
showers are expected to develop again on sunday with some
additional travel impacts expected.

- another fast moving system may bring light snow accumulations
monday night into early tuesday followed by a stronger cold
intrusion thu/fri.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 414 am est sat nov 29 2025

just some minor forecast changes made this morning, but overall
messaging remains intact with period of heaviest snowfall and
greatest impacts late this afternoon into this evening. the winter
storm warning and winter weather advisories areas remain intact with
some minor adjustments to ending times of the headlines on sunday.
winter storm warning headlines continue into sunday afternoon mainly
for lake effect snow favored areas in phase 2 of this system.

a quick ramp-up of isentropic ascent is expected through the
remainder of the morning hours. an expansive precip shield has
already developed across the lower/mid ms river valley this
morning. near term progs of 290k surface depict strongest
isentropic lift across northern missouri/west central illinois
as of 08z. short term progs take zone of strongest ascent on
this surface into northwest indiana/southwest lower michigan by
18z. track of this advective/isentropic forcing may be a little
more muted across far southeast portions of the forecast area
this afternoon. initial low level thermal/moisture profiles and
285k condensation pressure deficit analysis suggests that this
saturation process could take a bit longer than previously
expected, particularly across eastern half/southeast portions of
the forecast area where isentropic forcing is slightly weaker.
have made some minor adjustments to start time of headlines
(pushed back 3 hours across the east), although snow
accumulations across northwest ohio may not occur until the mid
afternoon hours today. some localized low level fgen at nose of
stronger low level flow could enhance late morning through mid
afternoon snow accumulations for some areas west of i-69.

guidance has been fairly consistent with handling of this system
although some slight dprog/dt trends could have an impact. some
guidance appears a bit more disjointed in handling of mid/upper
level system, with a likely diabatically generated mid level pv
anomaly pushing through this afternoon deriving from ongoing mo/il
precip. a tendency to perhaps slightly less phasing of primary
synoptic trough and this diabatically generated interior anomaly
appears to be trending solution to slightly weaker (albeit still
quite strong) kinematic fields and consequently just slightly
weaker northward moisture transport. latest suite of guidance
also may not be quite as supportive for csi type banding given
some weaker unidirectional mid level wind shear resulting from
the above guidance trends. nonetheless, very strong advective
fields and increasing synoptic scale support via primary upper
trough and left exit region of central conus upper jet streak
should support greatest snowfall rates in the 21z-02z time
period this evening. 00z href suite also points to this time
period as greatest probs of experiencing 1-2 inch/hour snowfall
rates for a time. the strong warm/moist advection will result
in a highly elevated dgz, although with some respectable depth
of 3-5k feet in the mid levels across far nw in/sw lower
michigan. however, overall snow efficiency still appears to be
limited with this system across most of the area given strongest
lift in lower reaches of dgz and more limited time window of
better dgz moisture quality. event average 9-12 snow to liquid
ratio was maintained in this forecast with warning level snow
amounts dependent on the high qpf nature of this system. some
concern that relatively narrow window of strongest forcing
mechanisms late afternoon/evening and inefficient snow
production could lead to lower than forecasted snow amounts,
particularly east of i-69. at this time have made only minor
adjustments to forecasted snow amounts through tonight, with
just a slightly lower trend in most places. highest
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through 12z sunday are still
forecasted for northwest third of the area where some cross-
hair signature of mid level lift/dgz is noted in forecast
time/height sections. some consideration given to transitioning
the warning to an advisory south of us route 24 across far
northeast indiana/northwest ohio but will allow dayshift to
assess trends this morning.

a mid level dry slot still looks to overspread the area
overnight into early sunday morning, with a quick tapering of
snow across most of the area and a likely transition to light
snow/areas of drizzle with drying dgz and near sfc wet bulbs
warming to near freezing across south/southeast areas. a quick
transition to stronger low level caa ensues for sunday morning
and afternoon as stronger upper vort lobe drops across the
southern great lakes. this should allow for at least a 6 to 9
hour period of favorable lake effect snow showers for additional
accumulations/impacts with gusty caa-induced winds also
expected. some higher res guidance also suggests potential of
mesovort-type feature to accompany a sharper low level trough
passage across southern lake michigan sunday morning/midday.
have maintained the winter storm warning headline into sunday
afternoon for areas possibly impacted by lake effect snow, and
have expired the warning by 15z sunday for remainder of the
area. this timing may need to be moved up further as most of the
synoptic accumulating snow could depart after 09z sunday
morning. lake effect snow showers should wane sunday evening.

monday will feature quiet conditions as a progressive low level
anticyclone sweeps across the area, but attention quickly turns to a
lower amplitude fast moving system for monday night/early tuesday.
primary low level baroclinic zone and better moisture will be
initially suppressed well south, but a period of northward moisture
transport is expected across the ohio valley ahead of this system.
guidance differs with details in the amplitude of this wave and
northward extent of sfc reflection/moisture return. even if a
more suppressed sfc reflection verifies, would expect a strong
mid level baroclinic zone to be in place locally, with fgen band
likely to affect area with some additional snow accumulations
monday night/early tuesday that could bring an additional 1-3"
of snow across the area. thus, have accepted the sharp ramp-up
in pops for this period suggested by the model blended guidance.

no major changes to the extended forecast at this time with
fuller latitude longwave trough bringing stronger cold frontal
push for the wed-thu timeframe. some single digit lows are
possible thursday night under the influence of sfc high
pressure, also aided by potential of some light additional fresh
snowcover with the frontal forcing. some moderation in
temperatures is possible by next weekend, but still below normal
for early december.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 615 am est sat nov 29 2025

few changes made to the 12z tafs. a significant winter storm
will impact the area today through sunday. snow will begin to
overspread the area after 12z this morning from west to east and
ceilings will quickly lower from vfr to ifr. snow continues
throughout the afternoon with the heaviest snow expected between
21z today to 03z sunday at both kfwa and ksbn. heavy snow will
result in ifr to potentially lifr ceilings and visibilities
throughout the afternoon and evening. moderate snow and ifr
visibilities continue into the early morning hours on sunday.
some rain may mix in at times after 09z sunday at kfwa. in
addition to the snowfall, south winds will be breezy all day
today. winds will be out of the southeast today, shifting to
become southwest overnight into early sunday. winds will be
sustained around 15 kts this afternoon and evening with gusts up
to 25 to 30 kts, especially after sunset tonight and into early
sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm warning until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ sunday for
inz005-006-012-014-103-104-116-203-204.
winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est
sunday for inz007-008.
winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to 10 am est
sunday for inz009-017-018-025>027-033-034.
winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for inz013-015-020-
022>024-032-216.
oh...winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to 10 am est
sunday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am est
sunday for ohz025.
mi...winter storm warning until 7 pm est sunday for miz078-079-177-
277.
winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est
sunday for miz080.
winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to 10 am est
sunday for miz081.
marine...small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
sunday for lmz043-046.
gale watch from sunday morning through sunday evening for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
870
fxus63 kdtx 291527
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1027 am est sat nov 29 2025

.key messages...

- a winter storm warning and winter weather advisory are in effect
for widespread 5 to 8 inches of snowfall starting this afternoon and
continuing overnight. the heaviest snowfall rates are expected this
evening.

- below normal temperatures continue through next week. highs in the
20s and overnight lows in the teens will be prevalent from monday
onward.

- light accumulating snow is forecast monday night and tuesday
morning with 1 to 2 inches possible for metro detroit and areas
south.

&&

.update...

no changes to the forecast or headlines are planned here at the late
morning update time. 29.12z kdtx raob captured very dry air in the
lowest 10.0 kft agl that will require time to saturate. snowflakes
have begun to reach the ground at kalamazoo and ionia so a
precipitation onset time between 18-21z seems on track. consensus of
29.12z numerical weather prediction continues to support 0.5 to 0.6
inch total liquid equivalent for much of southeast michigan.
uncertainty does exist with regards to what the liquid to snow ratios
will be observed at, but a general 5 to 8 inch snowfall forecast
highlighted in the winter weather message continues to be reasonable.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 638 am est sat nov 29 2025

aviation...

some reduction of lingering vfr cloud of lake origin may occur early
today as flow backs to southwesterly. otherwise, benign aviation
conditions prior to 20z today as surface ridging traverses the
region. widespread accumulating snow arrives late this afternoon and
continues through sunday morning. light intensity snow develops
within the 20z-22z window, with a peak in intensity expected during
the late evening hours. ifr visibility restriction with some
fluctuation of ceiling height within mvfr/ifr in falling snow during
this time, with the most intense bursts potentially leading to some
brief intervals of lifr between 23z and 05z. ifr conditions in
generally light snow persists into the early-mid morning hours.
winds prevailing from the southeast at around 10-12 knots throughout
this snowfall event.

for dtw... more impactful snow arrives this evening, dropping
conditions from vfr to ifr within a few hours. potential exists for
lifr conditions and visibilities aob 1/2 sm during the peak of the
event, most likely between 01z and 04z sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft thru early afternoon, then
high mid afternoon into tonight.

* medium for visibility at or below 1/2 sm late this evening.

prev discussion...
issued at 422 am est sat nov 29 2025

discussion...

a pacific wave is emerging over the rockies this morning, digging
into the central plains and producing widespread snow over the
midwest. this snow will spread into the local area this afternoon
through tonight as the wave contracts and lifts into the great
lakes. elevated isentropic ascent is already underway this morning,
evidenced by the high cloud moving in on ir imagery. this marks the
beginning of a top-down saturation process that should bring the
first flakes around or shortly after noon, with increasing rates
late afternoon into the evening. temps will briefly rise toward 32f
this afternoon but will stay below freezing once steady snow begins,
so melting is not anticipated at the onset.

a number of factors contribute to synoptic and mesoscale ascent with
this system, offering high confidence in impactful snowfall and
periods of heavy rates this evening. a corridor of pva targets lower
mi late this afternoon and evening, while the coupled upper jet
induces a broad area of upper divergence supportive of synoptic
lift. system relative analysis indicates deep layer moist isentropic
ascent in the lower to mid levels. the forcing is shown to collapse
into mesoscale processes this evening as sharp frontal forcing
accompanies the inbound mid-level wave. this is noted in highly
unbalanced flow emerging along the 280-310 k surfaces and reflected
in a sharp fgen response that works in from the southwest between 23
and 03z. this marks the peak in the event with rates of 0.50 to
0.75"/hr, possibly approaching 1"/hr in spots, but this magnitude of
forcing should be relatively transient at any given location. hi-res
models have been targeting areas south of i-94 with the greatest
rates during this period, and href snowband probability tracker
offers added confidence in this with some signs that upstream
banding may stay intact into the area.

slrs are anticipated to be near or slightly below climo at 11 or
12:1 to start the event late this afternoon as the dgz will be
relatively high at 10 to 15 kft agl with much of the omega focused
below this level. higher slrs (~15:1) will accompany the evening
burst as deeper lift intersects with the dgz. afterward into the
overnight, rates will subside but the higher slrs will persist
across most of the area as the dgz lowers slightly and
supersaturation wrt ice increases. this should produce
larger/fluffier flakes. the exception will be the far southeast
areas from monroe toward mt. clemens and port huron where the warm
advective wing of the inbound low will bring rising temperatures to
the lowest 10 kft which will increase riming, reduce slrs, and cut
into accumulations. a brief changeover to rain is noted in several
solutions as sfc wet bulb temp creeps to near 33f between 09 and
12z. otherwise, snowfall will continue through the early morning
hours before ascent begins to wane mid to late morning sunday.
additional lake enhanced snow may clip the northern thumb sunday
afternoon with up to an additional inch.

overall, little change to the previous messaging with this system
and no changes to the headlines in place. widespread 5 to 8"
snowfall totals are forecast across the area over a 15 to 18 hour
period. areas west of us-23 are the most likely areas to see 7 or 8"
given longer duration of snowfall into sunday morning and higher
slrs overnight. did consider expanding the winter storm warning into
monroe/wayne/oakland where the evening burst of snow brings
potential to exceed 5" in 6 hours for isolated locations. however
based on the latest data with the href 6-hr lpmm qpf trending down
from the previous run, this outcome carries low confidence and feel
more comfortable with the advisory currently in place.

gusty nw flow follows the system on sunday with gusts of around 30
kt expected through the afternoon. high pressure arrives on monday
to provide calmer but colder conditions with morning lows in the
teens and highs struggling to reach 30. the next wave in this active
pattern is modeled to arrive late monday into tuesday, with the bulk
of the forcing displaced well to our south and east. light
accumulating snow is still possible, particularly for metro detroit
and areas south, where 1 to 2 inches is in the latest forecast. the
next arctic front then brings another chance for lighter
accumulating snow wednesday night into thursday.

marine...

light winds to start the day as the region remains under the
influence of departing high pressure. this changes by evening as the
next low ejecting out of the midwest begins to encroach on the great
lakes. winds organize out of the south-southeast with a steady
strengthening through the late evening hours as the low center
reaches lower mi. while this flow carries some warmer air north,
magnitude is not enough to set up a truly stable overlake thermal
profile allowing a portion of a 50kt low level jet to mix down to
the surface over the southern great lakes and southern third of lake
huron (roughly south of port austin). gusts tonight for these waters
likely top out around 30kts with a sporadic gust to gale force not
completely out of the question particularly over st clair/erie. for
the rest of the central great lakes, winds peak closer to the 20-25kt
range. low is forecast to track northeast directly over lake huron
sunday morning and eventually into the georgian bay/ontario by sunday
afternoon. this allows a secondary arctic cold front to drop across
the great lakes late sunday afternoon-evening ushering in renewed
cold air advection on nw flow. a sharp increase in northwest gusts
accompany this frontal passage supporting solid potential (60-80%)
for a 4-6hr period of 35kt gusts over northern/central lake huron
late day sunday. a gale watch remains in effect for all open waters
north of harbor beach as a result. some occasional gales are possible
over the open waters south of harbor beach however given the
northwesterly wind direction, confidence in 3 consecutive hours of
34kt gusts is still too low at this time to include in the watch.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 10 am est sunday
for miz047-048-053-060-068-075-082.

winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
sunday for miz049-054-055-061>063-069-070-076-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 2 pm to 10 pm est sunday for lhz362-363-441-
462>464.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est monday for
lhz421-442-443.

small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm est sunday for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 pm est sunday for
lhz441.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm est sunday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm est sunday for
lez444.

low water advisory from 3 am to 10 pm est sunday for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......cb
aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.