Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
453
fxus61 kcle 270748
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
348 am edt mon apr 27 2026

.what has changed...
with this update, beginning to monitor the potential for some gusty
winds as decaying storms enter the area this evening. overall severe
potential is limited, but cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder
and gusty showers.

&&

.key messages...
1) decaying storms will push into the area ahead of a cold front
tonight, bringing the potential for gusty winds across the area.

2) a cooler weather pattern returns midweek into early may. there
will be multiple overnight periods when the potential for frost will
arise as temperatures approach freezing.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a potent low pressure system is expected to impact parts of the
midwest today, bringing the potential for widespread convection
upstream of the area ahead of a cold front. this cold front is
expected to slowly push east through the day and into the evening
hours, pushing the aforementioned showers and storms east as well.
this robust low is expected to remain intact, however given the
diurnally unfavorable timing of storms reaching the area, there will
be limited concern for severe potential today. these storms should
be significantly weakening as they move into the cwa as the bulk of
forcing and the axis of greatest instability should remain south of
the area. with that being said, there is a strong llj of 50-60 knots
that is expected to push east ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. mixing layer heights should remain fairly elevated given the
ongoing convection, which may allow some of these showers and
thunderstorms to mix some of the llj down to the surface. these
gusts should remain fairly isolated in nature and likely associated
with the most well developed storms. in the day 1 outlook by spc,
the area is highlighted in general thunder, further messaging the
isolated potential for any severe threat as the decaying storms push
east, but still worth noting the wind threat.

in addition to gusty winds, periods of heavy rainfall, especially
across the southern tier of counties may lead to localized
reductions in visibilities and ponding on roadways. the overall
flooding concern however is minimal given the progressive nature of
the system. will continue to monitor upstream convection today and
destabilization over the cwa for any shift in the severe
potential.

key message 2...
after this robust system early in the week, a strong cold front will
act to usher in a canadian high with much cooler characteristics.
this will lead to a roller coast of temperatures with highs today
climbing into the mid to upper 70s, but only reaching into the 50s
by wednesday. overnight lows will follow a similar trend with
overnight lows wednesday night dropping into the 30s to low 40s.
these overnight temperatures are expected to continue to cool, with
some areas reaching into the low the mid 30s at times, especially on
nights when skies are clear and radiational cooling can be enhanced.
these temperatures will likely lead to local frost and possible
freeze concerns, impacting vegetation that has already begun to grow
given the early spring warm up. will continue to monitor for extent
and magnitude of this potential and the need for any headlines.
these below average temperatures look to stick around with the
entire area highlight in the cpc day 6-10 outlook for below normal
temperatures (this outlook covers may2 to 6).

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr dominant. winds on the increase out of the southeast
through the period, with gusts reaching 20-30kts ahead of a low
pressure system moving into the region from the west. clouds
gradually lower and showers move in from the west, only reaching
the western terminals at fdy and tol by the very end of the taf
period. mvfr ceilings possible for the last hour of the taf at
fdy/tol.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms monday
night through tuesday. non-vfr likely again in showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southeasterly winds 10-20kts today become southerly 20-30kts
ahead of a cold front tonight with wave heights increasing away
from shore at 1-3ft and 3-5ft in the open water zones.
behind the cold front, winds become onshore eventually late
tuesday around 10-15kts with nearshore wave heights 1-3ft
wednesday through friday.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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842
fxus63 kiwx 270756
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
356 am edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms will develop today, some storms
accompanied by strong to damaging winds late today and early
tonight. locally heavy rainfall likely.

- warm today with highs in the 70s.

- dry and cool wednesday through saturday with highs in the 50s.

- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 355 am edt mon apr 27 2026

the greatest forecast challenges looming ahead include timing
and coverage of strong to severe storms later today and tonight.
the leading upstream convective cluster had already moved into
western il at the time of this writing (3am edt). moisture
will surge north into northern indiana later today ahead of
this activity with dew points in the 60s given the latest hrrr
model data. given all of the characteristics of the upstream
airmass, an 80 knot mid level jet and the associated kinematics
with this system, severe thunderstorms are expected late today
into early tonight with damaging winds the greatest threat.

a fairly strong low level cap should erode quickly as this
strong system approaches from the west. showers and thunderstorms
will fill in rapidly west of the forecast area this morning. the
activity will intensify and move east as the potential for damaging
winds increases. the best chances for severe storms is expected
to be from about 3pm to 9pm edt.

much colder air will settle across the forecast area late this
week bringing the likelihood for frost and the potential for
freezing temperatures. given the recent mild temperatures and
the development of sensitive vegetation, frost and possibly
freeze headlines will likely be needed during this time.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 130 am edt mon apr 27 2026

several rounds of thunderstorms are expected later today as a
potent shortwave lifts into the region. the first round is
associated with waa and upstream convection lifting into the
area roughly 18-23z. confidence in thunderstorms impacting the
terminals is lower with this first round and will therefore hold
with prob30. there is higher confidence in the second round
expected after 00z but there is still some uncertainty in the
exact timing and placement of the strongest storms during this
period. thunderstorms are likely at some point but will need to
continue to fine-tune the timing in later forecasts as upstream
convection evolves.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 am edt
tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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388
fxus63 kdtx 270732
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
332 am edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- warmer today with mostly dry conditions through the bulk of the
day.

- showers and thunderstorms expected mainly after 8pm this evening
into tomorrow morning.

- stretch of below average temperatures latter half of the week.

&&

.discussion...

mid-upper level ridge axis slides east this morning with mostly dry
and stable conditions expected to hold through today. lower level
flow will gradually settle out of the east this morning and
eventually southeast by this afternoon in response to the upstream
low pressure system and the high pressure to the east. this will
bring a more notable increase in warm air advection today as 850mb
flow turns southerly and draw in 850mb temperatures of 11-12c with
925mb temperatures peaking at around 15c this afternoon. mixing
profiles support daytime high temperatures in the low-mid 70s for
inland areas while slightly cooler temperatures will exists along
the lakeshores give the onshore flow. the approaching warm front
arrival with the increasing mid level moisture noted by the
increasing mid-high clouds may allow for isolated showers/sprinkles
this afternoon. no need to increasing pops due to the dry and stable
surface conditions as 15-20% should suffice in western portions of
the cwa. increasing pressure gradient and mixing heights will bring
wind gust potential up to 30-35 mph later this afternoon with the
higher end of the spectrum mainly across the saginaw valley and
thumb.

the low pressure system across the mid mississippi valley will eject
northeastward throughout today reaching lake superior area by early
tomorrow morning. ongoing convection associated with this system
will be driven through the midwest during the evening. still some
differences in the hi-res space in regards to exact arrival of
convection depending on how activity evolves through the evening.
activity should arrive to southeast michigan in the 23-03z window
with likely rain and a chance for thunderstorms along the warm
frontal zone into the overnight. strong instability will be lacking
with the bulk of activity moving through at the diurnal minimum, but
there may be enough instability to support elevated thunderstorms.
of note, several solutions point towards a generally weakening and
waning coverage by the time it arrive locally given the lack of
instability. pwats arriving within the main corridor of higher
thetae are up to near 1.25 inches, which supports average rainfall
amounts in the 0.20-0.50" range. latest guidance has lowered qpf
amounts across the eastern half of the cwa resulting from that model
signal for waning coverage and intensity. any thunderstorm that can
manage to maintain some strength could still produce rainfall
amounts greater than a half inch given the available moisture. the
systems cold front will push through mid-late morning tomorrow,
which will maintain chances for precipitation through the morning.

cooler and drier air will settle into the region in the wake of the
morning cold front tomorrow with afternoon highs dipping slightly
into the upper 50s across the north to low-mid 60s across the south.
a southern stream wave triggers a low pressure system along the
frontal zone that lifts across the ohio valley tomorrow night into
wednesday. while drier air will have entered the region, enough
favorable forcing with the system may produce scattered light
showers across parts of the area, mainly south and east portions of
the cwa. bulk of activity with that system is currently
forecast to hold south of the state.

broad troughing extends out from central canada during the remainder
of the week that will carry periodic embedded waves over michigan.
the result will be at least occasional low chances for precipitation
in the form of isolated to scattered light rain showers during this
period. otherwise, expect most of the area to stay dry for the late
week. troughing and persistent north to northwest flow during this
time likely brings slightly below normal temperatures with highs in
the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.marine...

high pressure remains overhead to start the day before gradually
departing to the east late this afternoon-evening. as this occurs,
southeasterly winds begin to strength as the next low lifts out of
the central plains towards the northern great lakes. a 45-60kt llj
develops over the central great lakes tonight however accompanying
warm advection promotes a stable overlake thermal profile limiting
mixing potential. local probabilistic guidance only advertises
around a 30% chance to reach 34kts. given the thermal profile,
confidence is not high enough that lake huron will see 3 consecutive
hours of gales to warrant a warning. that said, can`t rule out some
gusts near 34kts, particularly over the north-central waters where
fetch is maximized. slightly better potential for strong gusts comes
with the arrival of showers and storms late night-early tuesday as
rain promotes a shift towards more neutral profiles, however this
set-up would warrant short-fused special marine warnings over gales.
small craft advisories are in effect for all nearshore waters this
evening into tuesday due to winds/waves. system`s cold front crosses
daytime tuesday ending storm chances as well as flipping winds to
the northwest. rapidly weakening pressure gradient on the backedge
of the low keeps these winds under 30kts as weak high pressure
briefly follows.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1146 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

aviation...

strong high pressure over the eastern great lakes will maintain vfr
conditions through tonight through mon afternoon. light east winds
through daybreak will become southeast on monday with afternoon
gusts over 20 knots as the gradient and low level wind fields
increase.

d21/dtw convection...widespread convection is forecast to develop
across illinois and indiana monday evening and then move into
southern michigan late monday evening into the early morning hours
on tuesday. convection is likely to be linear and/or clusters.
instability will be less across the d21 airspace, so overall
convective coverage is forecast to weaken as storms advance to the
east.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in thunderstorms monday night.

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet monday night.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt tuesday
for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt tuesday
for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.