Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
543
fxus61 kcle 280808
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
308 am est sat feb 28 2026

.what has changed...
weather has trended warmer and wetter starting tuesday through
next weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow is likely tonight, though road impacts will be
limited.

2) wet and warm conditions are expected tuesday through next
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
1) a weak shortwave moving through, along with forcing from the
right-entrance region of an upper-level jet, will be the focus
for precipitation development tonight. cold air advection with
northerly flow should keep precipitation type mostly snow,
though a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain could be
briefly possibly for our far southern counties in central ohio
(knox-holmes area). the 00z nam is the most aggressive with
mixed precipitation there, as it produces a more developed low-
level low and subsequent warm nose aloft. with that said,
antecedent road/ground temperatures will probably be warm enough
to limit impacts. elsewhere, snow amounts are unlikely to
amount to much, with less than an inch.

2) an upper-level ridge moves from the southwest conus towards
the eastern conus by tuesday, where it will become established
through the rest of the week and into next weekend. meanwhile,
an upper-level trough follows, moving lee of the rockies by
tuesday. in response, return flow of gulf air will bring warm,
moist conditions northward, setting up a strong theta-e gradient
with a warm front over us and favorable conditions for a period
of moderate to possibly heavy rain (at times).

rain showers may come as early as late monday night. there is a
chance that precipitation initially falls as freezing rain
before temperatures warm up into the 40s. the greatest qpf
signal right now is for tuesday and tuesday night where the nbm
has a 50-75 of qpf > 1". the 90th percentile, which can be
considered a reasonable worse case scenario, is around 1.75".
antecedent conditions are fairly dry as river flow is relatively
low, and parts of northwest ohio (including lucas, wood, and
parts of hancock and ottawa) are actually still under a d3
extreme drought. so while this is a notable qpf signal, flooding
appears unlikely.

broad southwest flow will persist through the rest of the
week, resulting in continued warming temperatures and several
periods of rain showers. it`s likely we see multiple days of
highs in to 60s from thursday through saturday. with repeated
rainfall, higher soil moisture could provide more favorable
antecedent conditions for flooding by late week, but the
details are a little fuzzy at this point. csu ml shows this
potential, with a >5% chance of excessive rainfall thursday and
friday (consistent with an isolated flooding threat).

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
the main aviation weather concern for this 06z taf update will
be for some non-convective low level wind shear until about 09z
or 10z overnight. mainly vfr conditions and ceilings are
expected for this taf period through saturday afternoon and
early evening. mvfr ceilings and visibility will move in late
saturday evening towards the end of the taf period with areas
of light snow.

winds will be from the south- southwest 11-15 knots across the
area with gusts of 20-25 knots possible overnight. as a cold
front moves closer to the area later tonight, a strong llj of
40-50 knots will develop ahead of this front. have included a
period of llws at all terminals due to the magnitude of the jet
until 09-10z saturday morning. as the cold front pushes east
saturday morning, winds will become northwesterly at 5-10
knots. by saturday evening, winds will become north-
northeasterly 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow saturday night into early
sunday and again sunday night into monday, mainly along and
south of us-30. periods of non-vfr conditions are possible
throughout next week as an active pattern becomes established.

&&

.marine...
the central basin is now open with western basin ice coverage
continuing to diminish. whereas the eastern basin remains mostly
ice covered, though significant cracks in the coverage exist. a
prolonged period of mild temperatures, unsettled weather, and
gusty winds will continue to diminish ice coverage, shift around
the remaining ice sheet, and cause additional fractures.

elevated southwesterly winds 15-20 knots will quickly become
northerly while decreasing to 10-15 knots behind a cold front
this morning. winds shift northeasterly tonight remaining
between 10 and 15 knots. winds return northerly as high pressure
builds overhead sunday night. as the high builds to the east on
monday, winds turn easterly with offshore flow expected monday
night through tuesday. no marine headlines as small craft
advisories remain suspended at this time. waves in ice-free
areas across the open waters may build to 2-4 feet at times this
weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...77
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
297
fxus63 kiwx 280640
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
140 am est sat feb 28 2026

.key messages...

- light snowfall (1 inch or less) this afternoon/evening,
primarily north of the indiana toll road. farther south,
rain/snow showers will affect areas east and south of fort
wayne late sat.

- glancing blow to the south with snow chances (20-30%) sunday
night into early monday morning, mainly south of us-30.

- a mild and wet pattern sets up next week. periods of moderate
to heavy rain is possible by mid to late work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 am est sat feb 28 2026

a cold front will continue to work its way through the area
during the overnight hours, leading to a steady decline in temps
to the upper 20s / low 30s by daybreak. a disturbance dropping
out of the northern plains will bring the chance for snow this
afternoon and evening, primarily across michigan. there should
be a pretty sharp gradient on the southern edge of the
precipitation initially where low-level saturation is not aided
by isentropic accent and fgen forcing (likely around the mi/in
border). accumulation of roughly an inch or less can be
expected, with minimal impacts. by late evening, pop coverage
will expand south and east as scattered rain/snow showers move
into the area thanks to an uptick in pwats and synoptic forcing.


surface high pressure dominates the northeast and upper ohio
valley to start the week. this will help to shunt a disturbance
just to our south sunday night into monday morning, with a bulk
of the weather remaining over central/southern indiana. while
some slick spots along and south of us-24 can`t be ruled out
for the monday morning commute, the expectation is little to no
snowfall accumulation will occur.

the rest of the week looks active as several chances for
precipitation occurs under a gradually warming temperature
regime. monday night into tuesday will feature mixed precip
types, followed by a transition over to rain as the precip type
through the remainder of the week. with 2-3+ inches of qpf
possible by the end of the week, it will be a welcome sight for
the many drought stricken places in central indiana and
northwest ohio. our attention will then need to shift to the
possibility of spring flooding as we are expected to remain in a
wet pattern through much of march.


&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 1222 am est sat feb 28 2026

cold front is currently passing through the area and primarily
vfr conditions are expected through the day saturday. there is
some chance for mvfr stratocu during daytime heating but suspect
degree of dry air in place will keep any lower clouds scattered.
some weak fgen is expected to move across the area saturday
evening and could bring some brief rain/snow and mvfr ceilings
but here again degree of dry air and overall weak forcing lowers
confidence in impacts. much better chance of mvfr ceilings is
expected late saturday night as caa ramps up.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...norman
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
166
fxus63 kdtx 280826
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
326 am est sat feb 28 2026

.key messages...

- cooler today with increasing cloud cover this afternoon.

- accumulating snowfall begins late this evening with totals of a
half inch to two inches by sunday morning. locally higher amounts
expected across the thumb due to lake enhancement.

- colder and drier on sunday, followed by an extended warming trend
during the upcoming workweek.

- the next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs tuesday
with a wintry mix possible.

&&

.discussion...

strong cold front departs this morning with cold advection rushing
into lower michigan in its wake. expecting the 12z.kdtx raob to
sample near 0 c h8 temperatures as a sharp thermal gradient sets up
north-south. this leads to a roughly 10-15 degree spread in forecast
highs for today, low 40s near the ohio border to upper 20s-low 30s
in the thumb-saginaw valley regions. limited cloud cover expected
through the morning hours as high based cirrus works across the
area. nighttime microphysics rgb however is already showing good
moisture flux off of lake superior in the cold advective regime,
which will combine with eastward flux of synoptic moisture to bring
increasingly cloudy skies to se michigan this afternoon.

aggressive shift in the solution space over the past 24 hours
regarding tonight`s system, with a downward trend in forecast
snowfall amounts noted. the overall driver of this trend comes from
the separation of the local deformation axis and the developing ohio
valley surface low. earlier model runs were phasing these features
and producing a tightly packed thermal gradient and strong fgen
circulation, with more recent model runs backing off significantly.
the surface low circulation is now forecast to be further south and
broader, keeping moisture transport to our south. a prominent 850-
700mb dry layer has been noted consistently in model runs which
holds off snow onset until after 00z (7pm), and with the latest
moisture trends reduces qpf especially south of i-96. snowfall
totals have trended below an inch toward the ohio border. northern
areas still have a shot to see 1 to 2 inches of accumulation as the
snowband advects into the area along the developing deformation
axis. weaker fgen signature favors more stability aloft, which takes
away much of the mesoscale forcing needed to overachieve in the
band. qpf is broadly 0.10-0.15", but with increasingly favorable
microphysics through the event as profiles cool and the dendritic
growth zone deepens. general trend will thus be toward large and
fluffy flakes leading to a couple inches of potential accumulation
before the band dissipates early sunday morning.

high pressure begins to settle into the northern plains sunday
morning, leading to a veering trend in wind profiles toward
northeast flow. the cold airmass and northeast flow activate
moisture flux off of lake huron, although with a muted response
given the current extent of ice cover. nonetheless, steep low level
lapse rates of 7 c/km intersect with deeply saturated rh (wrt ice)
profiles up to 12.0 kft agl. thus expecting some degree of lake
enhancement to generate additional accumulations for the thumb and
may push totals above 3 inches. inbound subsidence then lowers
inversion heights and strips away column moisture to decrease snow
shower coverage by sunday afternoon.

broader forecast for se michigan focuses on well below average
temperatures sunday and monday as the core of the thermal trough
settles overhead. lows drop into the teens sunday morning and single
digits monday morning, with potential for wind chills in the single
digits each day. the colder airmass is short-lived, however, as the
high pressure center drifts overhead and southwest flow initiates a
strong warm advective response. high pressure anchors off the
atlantic coast, establishing a gulf moisture feed as well. this
leads to the next low which ripples into se michigan tuesday.
initial indications are for wintry mix potential with this system as
warm air surges atop the existing cold/shallow airmass.

&&

.marine...

northwesterly winds begin to decrease by mid morning ending further
gale potential as northern ontario low pressure lifts into northern
quebec. gradient quickly weakens once this occurs with 20kt or less
flow looking likely by this afternoon. a weak mid-level wave swings
across the southern half of the region late today/tonight supporting
light snow showers but no increases to wind speeds. strong canadian
high pressure quickly follows maintaining lighter (sub-20kt wind) to
close out the weekend. active but milder pattern favored to develop
next work week limiting any stronger wind chances.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1154 pm est fri feb 27 2026

aviation...

low amplitude shortwave ridging will build across southeast michigan
this evening. low-midlevel warm advection to the south of the
dynamic shortwave invof lake superior will result in some higher
static stability in the 2.0-6.0 kft agl layer early tonight. a cold
front will then push across the area after 06z. saturation has been
adequate to provide for some modest elevated instability at
approximately 10.0 kft agl. have seen spotty shower development the
past hour and expect it to push east by 07z. post frontal cold
advection will then become increasingly shallow resulting in
strengthening midlevel static stability my 12z saturday morning. low
confidence exists in saturation and cloud below the inversion at 2.5
kft agl around daybreak. no real model signal for gusty winds
saturday with top down saturation occurring in the afternoon.
frontogenetic light snow band is expected to push into the area
after 22z saturday. some uncertainty on the preferred track of the
snow.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening, moderate saturday
daybreak.

* high in precipitation type of snow saturday evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 9 am est this morning for lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning until 9 am est this morning for lhz361-
362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......kdk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.