Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
439
fxus61 kcle 190028
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
828 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

.what has changed...
there were no changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight through
wednesday.

2) an unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms likely..

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure today will gradually shift east as a weak cold front
associated with a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest
tonight. light showers are possible beginning around midnight for
the toledo area and then spreading east into wednesday morning. the
best support for shower develop should be along and north of us-30
initially before becoming more widespread wednesday
afternoon/evening. the remains minimal thunder potential through
wednesday morning as the airmass remains fairly stable, but as
diurnal heating increase into the afternoon chances of thunder will
increase. at this point, given the disjointed timing between the
upper level support and the surface heating, the severe potential
remains limited. conditions should dry out by thursday morning as
high pressure returns. highs today through thursday will be in the
mid 70 to low 80s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s to
low 60s.

key message 2...
the high pressure system impacting the area on thursday and friday
will push east this weekend as a deepening trough and associated
surface low are expected to impact the area. models are becoming
more consistent with the cold front pushing east late saturday with
showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. this would put
shower and thunderstorms across the area saturday afternoon into
sunday morning. although exact timing remains uncertain, given the
strong dynamics including a strong upper level jet and vort max,
will likely see thunderstorms at some point. if the best synoptic
energy coincides with the best diurnal heating, some of these storms
may become strong to severe. will need to keep an eye on this system
in the coming days to determine the potential severe risk this
weekend. temperatures are expected to remain consistent, climbing
into the upper 70s to low 80s for highs and falling into the upper
50s to low 60s for overnight lows.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
conditions are starting out vfr with some high level clouds
across the region. a cold front will enter from the northwest
tonight into wednesday and bring decreasing ceiling heights and
some shower activity during the morning hours. there will be a
window for some mvfr ceilings behind the first batch of rain on
wednesday. some more rain may enter from the southwest late
tomorrow afternoon and evening but coverage will be low. winds
will be generally southwesterly through the period but could be
briefly westerly at times.

outlook...non-vfr possible on saturday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie will remain fairly quiet as winds
with be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots this
evening, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight into
wednesday morning. waves will be choppy, though the highest
waves 2 to 4 feet will stay in the open waters with the near
shore seeing 2 feet or less. winds will shift to be
northerly behind a cold front on wednesday and diminish to 5 to
10 knots and persist through thursday night. waves will be 1 to
3 feet and possibly around 4 feet in the near shore with the
front and right after, then will diminish. friday, winds will
shift to be southerly at 5 to 10 knots, then shift to be
northwesterly late saturday night behind a cold front,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

there will be potential for showers and thunderstorms across
lake erie wednesday and saturday that could bring higher winds
and waves within the storms. there is higher confidence in
thunderstorms impacting the lake on saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
636
fxus63 kiwx 190033
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
833 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

.key messages...

- the next chance of rain arrives tonight and persists through
wednesday.

- severe weather is not expected but a few strong storms may be
possible in far nw in/sw mi late this evening into the early
overnight. the primary threat is brief heavy downpours and
wind gusts to 50 mph. while brief higher rain rates are
possible, rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy
tonight.

- after pleasant conditions thursday and friday, more light rain
is expected on saturday.

&&

.update...
issued at 830 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

broad pre-frontal confluence and low-mid level theta-e advection
have allowed a band of showers and storms to form along a modest
mlcape axis. this instability axis from eastern iowa into
southeast wisconsin should build southeast into sw lower
mi/northwest indiana through 04z. instability may become
slightly elevated through time progressing through late evening.
this leads to some question as to maintenance of stronger 50-60
mph gusts currently being observed with this line across se
wisconsin. a 50-60 knot speed max at 500 mb is progressing
through a low amplitude upper trough across the southern great
lakes tonight with plenty of low level and deep layer shear to
sustain this convection through at least lower michigan/far
northern indiana, at least partially compensating for more
marginal instability. there also could be some mcv-type feature
forming on northern periphery of this convection across se
wisconsin that could help sustain storms through 05z-06z. based
on current trends, did increase pops to categorical across the
northwest with expectation that some temporal window exists late
evening/early overnight for 40-50 mph gusts across sw lower
michigan/northwest indiana, with a gradual weakening with
east/southeast extent overnight as some boundary layer
destablization occurs and better mlcape axis gets pinched off
to the west. in addition to the potential of gusty winds, some
brief heavy rainfall is expected that could lead to some
localized ponding. however, overall progressive should keep
rainfall amounts in check most locations. it is possible some
localized 1+" inch amounts could be realized across far nw
indiana/sw lower michigan.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 206 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

not a lot of wholesale changes to this forecast period. cool
front currently sitting over southcentral mi and orientated to
the southwest into central il still on schedule to begin pushing
southeastward into the area this evening. looks like after 6 pm
edt chances for some light showers increase out ahead of the
incoming frontal boundary for our far northwestern parts of the
cwa before some scattered thunderstorms along the front push in
shortly afterwards and continues to move southeastward through
the area overnight into wednesday. forecasted instability,
mainly elevated, with values less than 1000 j/kg coupled with
decent shear values ahead of and along the front with values
around 70-80 kts, and surface dew points currently in the 60s
across the area. expectation in this environment with the later
diurnal timing that some of the storms may become strong but
would trend weaker through the evening as the front
southeastward.

on wednesday, depending on the exact position of the frontal
boundary, which at this time will most likely be over our far
south/southeastern parts of the cwa. which if this does pan out
then there will be afternoon slight chances of showers and
storms mainly for the southern half of the cwa with the close
proximity of the frontal boundary to provide a bit of lift.
however, severe storms are not expected with most of the area to
the north of the boundary with a less than ideal environment
especially with a drier airmass pushing in from the north in the
wake of the front by wednesday afternoon and evening. zonal flow
aloft across the region will bring slightly cooler temperatures
across the area into friday with highs in the upper 70s
expected. fairly nice weather with comfortable conditions will
be in place for thursday and friday before another cool front
associated with a trough dropping southeastward into the great
lakes arrives late friday and into saturday increasing chances
once again for showers and storms and before pushing quickly
eastward.

by sunday, ridging over the central conus then begins to
build northward into the region bringing another period of dry
weather and a slight warming trend into next week with highs
back into the low 80s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 725 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

pre-frontal confluence and a broad, low amplitude mid/upper
level trough have allowed a band of showers and storms to
develop this evening across southern wisconsin. these storms are
developing along a 1000-1500 j/kg mlcape axis. through time the
better low level theta-e advection should become pinched off
across the corn belt region, with instability axis dropping
across the southern great lakes in a more moderate form late
this evening into the early overnight. despite the limited
instability, an upper jet streak nosing across the southern
great lakes this evening will provide ample shear to keep some
convective organization going with this line as it enters
northwest indiana after 03z. the general expectation is for a
brief period of storms at ksbn in the 03z-05z with some gusts to
30 to 35 knots possible with the storms. given stronger upper
forcing lags well back to the nw across the dakotas/northern mn,
some question as to the longevity into kfwa overnight and will
continue for now with prob30 mention given lesser elevated
instability.

associated frontal boundary will become a bit more diffuse and
slow moving into wednesday but could trigger some additional
showers/isolated storms at kfwa in the afternoon. confidence in
frontal placement and availability instability is lon the low
side, so will limit mention to prob30 shra at this forecast
distance. will maintain mention of mvfr conditions late tonight
in vicinity of the front, particularly at ksbn, although
confidence is on the lower side in terms of duration. any mvfr
cigs should improve late morning with diurnal mixing.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...andersen
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
862
fxus63 kdtx 190001
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
801 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

.key messages...

- some showers and a few thunderstorms tonight with isolated
marginally severe gusts possible.

- a few lingering showers are possible early wednesday, then turning
mainly dry through the end of the week.

- the next chance for showers and storms arrives friday night,
continuing into saturday.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will mark the start of this taf period and continue
through most of this evening as predominately mid/high clouds cover
the area with a west-southwest wind. a weak frontal boundary moving
across the region will lead to increasing coverage of showers
developing during the overnight hours. isolated thunderstorm chances
exist, but low probability will continue to preclude mention at this
time as activity is expected to be weakening as it arrives into the
terminal corridor. there will be a period of lower stratus in the
immediate wake of the frontal passage which should bring periods of
mvfr ceilings roughly between 08-13z. ceilings currently expected
to lift into vfr by late tomorrow morning with post frontal
northwesterly winds.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance of a thunderstorm tonight
mainly between 06z and 10z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening, medium
tonight, and high tomorrow morning.

* very low for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

discussion...

surface high pressure influence exits this evening as a cold front
continues to advance toward lower michigan tonight. a disjointed
line of showers and thunderstorms currently positioned along the
front should persist and grow in scale as the boundary approaches
southeast michigan. this results in a period of nocturnal convection
which should become more organized as the evening wears on, possibly
containing some multicell clusters and linear segments. one limiting
factor will be timing since the diurnal cycle will have already
peaked, but regardless, low-level cin should inhibit the path of
most surface-based parcels. aloft, mid-level lapse rates are more
supportive of instability, but with limited density as mucape values
should only reside within the 200-500 j/kg range. spc`s latest
swody1 added a marginal risk to more of lower michigan, extending
all the way across the plains, and up into montana. main concern
will be a rogue downdraft or two, resulting in a low-end chance for
isolated marginally severe gusts. machine learning datasets are
mixed on any severe potential.

the front slows wednesday, becoming quasi-stationary over the ohio
valley as the governing longwave composite trough axis aloft becomes
stalled. the placement of the surface convergence zone favors a
mainly dry forecast for wednesday, after any morning remnants clear
south. the post-frontal airmass will only be slightly cooler,
hindered by unfavorable wnw flow trajectories that delay the onset
of more robust cold advection. some evidence of a secondary weak
backdoor cold front trying to move in off lake huron, but diffuse
pressure field limits the cohesiveness of a material northeasterly
wind shift. between the backdoor front over the thumb, and the
stalled boundary just to the south, potential exists for additional
convection saturday. the 12z hrrr is the most aggressive cam in
generating wednesday afternoon convection along/north of i-69,
although it`s in the extreme minority as nbm pops are about zero
between 18z and 00z wednesday. note that the 18z hrrr fell in-line
with the rest of the hi-res space. mid-level perturbation within the
mean flow does offer weak synoptic support. areas to the far south
may see diurnal convection spill just north of the michigan/ohio
state line. no severe weather expected with any conditional
convection wednesday.

surface high pressure attempts to build more aggressively into lower
michigan on thursday, in spite of persistent vicinity longwave
troughing. lower column stability/drying and subtle warming aloft
make for a difficult setup for any shower activity to materialize.
temperatures persist near or a couple degrees above normal, in the
lower 80s. the next chance for showers and storms arrives friday
night, continuing into saturday as the next wave digs across the
high plains toward the ohio valley. thermal troughing fills in
afterwards, delivering slightly cooler than normal conditions into
early next week as 700 mb temperatures dip near/below 0c.

marine...

a cold front will pass from north to south across the great lakes
this evening and into the early morning hours which will veer wind
direction from southwest to northwest. showers and thunderstorms
will be likely with the passage of the front. there will be a low
chance for a stronger isolated thunderstorm capable of producing a
wind gust aoa 34 knots. this will be most favorable across lake
huron.

high pressure fills back in behind the front which will
maintain lighter wind speeds through thursday. additional chances
for showers and storms will return friday into the weekend with the
passage of a warm and subsequent cold front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.