Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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507
fxus61 kcle 161901
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
301 pm edt sat may 16 2026

.what has changed...
no significant chances were made to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms
possible tonight through sunday and again late tuesday into
wednesday.

2) warmer weather expected sunday into mid-week with near record
highs possible early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
it will remain unsettled across the region tonight through
sunday as a series of shortwaves will move overhead. ongoing
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to push east
across the forecast are through this evening giving way to a
brief period of dry weather tonight. hi- res models are having a
fairly difficult time with precipitation chances tomorrow as
another shortwave moves overhead. for now, stuck with slight
chance to chance pops in the forecast sunday afternoon and early
evening to account for any isolated showers/thunderstorms that
may develop along a warm front.

precipitation chances will return late tuesday through wednesday as
a strong cold front swings east. some prefrontal showers and storms
will be possible during the day on tuesday with more widespread
precipitation chances along the cold front. expect for temperatures
behind the cold front on wednesday and thursday to fall roughly 10-
15 degrees.

key message 2...
broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer
conditions to end the weekend and begin early next week. highs
warm into the upper 80s areawide on monday and mid 80s by
tuesday. temperatures through the first half of may have been
below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat
to feel noticeably warm. peak heat index values will range
between the upper 80s to lower 90s. take steps to reduce time in
the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
multiple rounds of light showers will move east across the
eastern portion of area through early this evening. a few
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out primarily at keri this
afternoon, but as of now it appears that the majority of the
area is stabilized from early day convection so the overall
thunderstorm risk is low across most of the area at this point.
in general, flight conditions will be vfr/mvfr in somewhat lower
ceilings and showers through this afternoon with a period of
clearing likely this evening, although mvfr ceilings may persist
across interior ne oh/nw pa through late this evening. light
winds and lingering low-level moisture will result in lower
stratus and patchy fog, best chance at kmfd/kyng and possibly
kcak early sunday morning with improving conditions expected
after daybreak.

winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts
to 25 knots through early this evening with locally stronger
winds possible in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
winds diminish below 10 knots overnight before becoming a bit
more southerly and increasing to 5 to 10 knots by late
morning/early afternoon sunday. winds will be variable close to
the lakeshore on sunday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in isolated showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. non-vfr likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late
tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected this afternoon
with winds diminishing below 15 knots later this evening. winds
will be light and variable for a period during the day sunday before
flow shifts to the southwest on monday. periods of elevated
winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected during the day monday and
tuesday with the strongest winds likely in the western basin of
the lake. small craft advisories may be needed early in the
week, especially if winds trend higher. winds will shift to the
northwest behind a cold front on wednesday with flow becoming
more north/northeast wednesday night into thursday. winds/waves
should remain below small craft advisory criteria for most of
this time, although there may be a brief period of small craft
advisory conditions as onshore winds increase in the western and
central basins on wednesday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 161756
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
156 pm edt sat may 16 2026

.key messages...

- 20% to 30% chance of an isolated thunderstorm prior to
sunset.

- very warm through at least tuesday with frequent chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

- thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall and damaging wind
gusts, primarily on monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm edt sat may 16 2026

this morning`s showers and thunderstorms have shifted east and skies
have cleared nicely as of midday. a narrow area of cumulus is noted
along the us 30 corridor, perhaps an indicator of an outflow
boundary. upper-level support for any afternoon or evening
thunderstorms is generally non existent, with 500 mb and 850 mb
jets located well to our north and southwest, respectively. thus,
despite surface cape swelling toward 1,500 j/kg this afternoon, the
modest trigger of a lingering outflow boundary leaves much to
be desired for renewed storm chances. can`t completely rule out
an isolated storm before sunset (20-30% chance) but overall,
not impressed and have coordinated with spc to reduce the extent
of the marginal severe weather risk today.

tonight, organized convection is expected over mo, ia, and
eventually into il. like yesterday, how this evolves offers
uncertainty. however, using the same synoptic methodology as
yesterday, the overnight period appears to be primarily dry.
toward sunrise, 500mb flow improves over il and could be a
forcing mechanism to sustain any ongoing convection there. yet,
despite the synoptic forcing, instability values of only 500
j/kg will be a limiting factor while shear improves to 30
knots.

a warm front, currently running east/west through lafayette, lifts
north early sunday morning as well, but given the dearth of
instability, high resolution guidance does little in terms of any
convection along the front. thus, have maintained only a 20% chance
of showers and thunderstorms to blend with neighbors. sunday
appears primarily dry and warm.

monday and tuesday remain murky but feature favorable severe
weather ingredients. the primary question is whether or not
convection fires monday afternoon from a prefrontal trough that
lifts in. should this trough become the focus for severe storms,
damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard via steep
low- level lapse rates. afternoon storms would then squash the
overnight severe risk. the slow-moving cold front creeps through
our area tuesday serving as a continued focus for severe
storms. however, plenty of cloud debris is expected throughout
the day owing to any preceding convection. this will limit
instability values. heavy rain rates of at least 1" per hour
remain a concern early this week. overall, entering a period of
active weather that will require taking things one day at time
owing to mesoscale nuances.

cooler behind the front with highs some 20-degrees cooler; only in
the mid-60s wednesday and thursday. high pressure wednesday and
thursday becomes displaced over the eastern great lakes for next
weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 152 pm edt sat may 16 2026

vfr to mvfr conditions expected at the terminals this period.
expect mvfr ceilings of 1500ft at kfwa this afternoon to
gradually improve to vfr with time. wsw winds shift more s-sw
through the period, with intermittent gusts up to around
23kts. most model guidance keeps any shower/t-storm activity to
be south of kfwa, but there are a couple models that generate it
further north along us 30-left out of the taf for now given very
low confidence.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 161716
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
116 pm edt sat may 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms this
morning with lingering showers and thunderstorms possible this
afternoon across the south.

- increasing temperature trends this weekend into early next week.
high confidence for temperatures in the mid-upper 80s monday and
tuesday.

- multiple opportunities for thunderstorms into early next week.
greatest thunderstorm risk will be monday afternoon/evening with a
marginal to slight risk for severe weather in place for all of
southeast michigan.

&&

.aviation...

the last batch of showers were moving through just ahead of a trof
and associated with a weak mid level low pressure moving through
southeast lower mi. these should end by 20z for the detroit area taf
sites. there remains a very low chance one of the convective
elements could produces some thunder, but chances are low enough to
leave out of the 18z tafs.

after that, just some sct diurnal cumulus to form this afternoon
with winds gusty to around 30 knots as they go from southwest to
west. the wind dimishes overnight as a warm fornt sets up around the
i-96 corridor. while a hi-res run or two suggest that a shower could
develop near the front toward daybreak, will leave it that small
chance out but add some scattered stratocu. sunday morning will
feature plenty of mid layer cloud above 100kt until better low level
moisture moves into to bring some broken ceilings above 3k feet
toward 18z.

d21/dtw convection... the probability for a thunderstorm developing
early this afternoon remains very low.


.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms early saturday afternoon.

* low for ceilings aob 5000ft saturday afternoon through sunday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 am edt sat may 16 2026

discussion...

the convective complex that developed across iowa last evening will
continue its march eastward into michigan this morning. this system
will be riding the low level jet with a healthy moisture transport
and a mid level wave. relatively high pops (50% or greater) remains
in the forecast this morning with convection expected to move
through locally during the 10z to 15z time frame. though, nearly all
of the hi-res models showing significant weakening of these showers
and thunderstorms as they move off of lake michigan and arrive with
very limited surface instability, if any, in place. this will keep
the severe weather potential very low through the morning. a chance
for general thunderstorms will remain given the steep mid level lapse
rates and elevated instability noted with the 500+ j/kg of mucape.
the weakening trend also leads to a weak rainfall signal with qpf on
the order of around a tenth of an inch or less across southeast
michigan through the morning hours.

a low end chance for precipitation will exist into the early
afternoon tomorrow, but soundings point towards a weak cap at or
slightly above 5kft. this should help limit any convective response
that would try to take advantage of the better daytime instability
that will be present as dewpoints rise into the 60s. any activity
would more than likely be towards the southern border with higher
coverage holding south of the state. greater warm air advection will
arrive as well and help daytime temperatures reach upper 70s to low
80s.

a mid-upper ridge will amplify over the great sunday into monday as
a result of a pacnw trough organizing over the rockies. a warm
frontal feature is set to lift northward on sunday as an embedded
shortwave lifts out of the plains through the ridging. this will at
least offer a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day
with added ascent along the warm front and supporting mid level
wave. hi-res model signal does not seem that excited about the
prospects of thunderstorms on sunday along the warm front across
southeast michigan. will be something to monitor given the favorable
diurnal timing with increasing instability noted with the warm and
moist advection, increasing shear profiles and steepening lapse
rates. southeast michigan remains in general thunder for the day 2
convective outlook as of now, but seems plausible that isolated
strong thunderstorms could be in play during the day sunday. will
continue to monitor the hi-res trends.

passing of the warm front sunday will continue the warming trend
through tuesday as deep south to southwest flow sets up and ushers
in 850mb temperatures on the order of 15-17c and 925mb temperatures
to around 20c for monday and tuesday. the result will be summer-like
temperatures each afternoon in the mid to upper 80s with 90s possible
depending on the cloud and precipitation trends. greatest chance for
90s will be across the detroit metro areas. mid 60s dewpoints will
also accompany the heat while supporting additional chances for
thunderstorms monday afternoon into tuesday. monday
afternoon/evening activity will be supported by the strong thetae
surge. the moisture will have gulf ties and pwats will climb towards
1.75 inches bringing potential for heavy rainfall. the environment
will be increasingly supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms
across parts of southeast michigan with favorable shear and
instability. a day 3 marginal to slight risk is now in place across
all of southeast michigan. thunderstorm threat continues on tuesday
ahead of a cold front. still a few days to refine details on the
severe weather potential early week. cold front eventually sweep
through, bringing temperatures back toward more normal values by
wednesday. high pressure will also build into the region resulting in
a period of dry weather mid to late week.

marine...

a line of thunderstorms tracks across lower michigan over the next
several hours, reaching the local marine zones around daybreak. most
storms remain elevated, although a few storms will be capable of
gusty winds in excess of 30 knots. the leading line clears out by
mid-morning, with a weaker signal for additional storms to fire
early this afternoon along the lingering surface trough. drier
conditions emerge late afternoon-evening while high pressure sends a
cold front south across the great lakes tonight. this front clashes
with the warmer airmass/ridge over se conus, with the southern
stream eventually winning out for sunday through early next week.
split flow sunday flips fully to the southwest monday and tuesday
ushering in a seasonably warm and unstable airmass. the main marine
concern will be potential for several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, although breezy southerly winds are expected to
develop along the nearshores (gusting 20 to 30 knots).

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....rbp
discussion...aa
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.