Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
173
fxus61 kcle 111803
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
103 pm est sun jan 11 2026

.what has changed...
the winter weather advisory has been expanded to include more of
ne oh/nw pa with lake, geauga, and ashtabula counties under the
advisory until 7 pm and erie and crawford counties in pa under
the advisory until 1 am.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect snow, gusty winds, and seasonably cool
temperatures expected today.

2) windy conditions possible tuesday afternoon.

3) a deepening trough across the eastern us will impact the area
on wednesday as an associated strong cold front pushes east
across the area. this cold front will usher in below normal
temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the winter weather advisory has been expanded to include more of
ne oh/nw pa with lake, geauga, and ashtabula counties under the
advisory until 7 pm and erie and crawford counties in pa under
the advisory until 1 am. 1 to 3 inches of snow is occurring with
a band of heavy snow moving through the region and an additional
1 to 3+ inches is expected with lake effect snow this afternoon
and evening. this will bring the storm total snow to 3 to 6
inches by this evening for the advisory areas.

previous key message 1 discussion...
as an upper level trough shifts south and pushes east this
morning, an area of light to moderate snow will move east across
the area. general accumulations of 1 inch or less are expected
with this push of snow. within the heaviest bands of snow,
visibilities and road conditions may quickly diminish and
motorists should use caution.

by mid-morning, the trough axis will push east of the area,
allowing for a surface trough to become established over the
area. winds with this trough will become more west to
northwesterly, allowing for an onshore flow to develop across
neoh and nwpa. with much of lake erie remaining unfrozen, 850mb
temperatures of -11 to -12c will allow for enough instability to
develop, resulting in lake effect snow. the biggest uncertainty
is in the moisture throughout the low and mid levels. initially
this morning, models suggest a push of drier air pushing over
the area before mid-level level moisture returns this afternoon.
as a result, expect the heaviest lake effect snow showers to
develop this afternoon into the early evening. snowfall totals
with this update remain nearly the same with 1-3 inches expected
across the neoh snowbelt and crawford county pa. locally higher
amounts of 3-5 inches is possible across erie county pa. lake
effect snow should quickly end tonight as high pressure builds
in.

in addition to the snowfall potential, gusty winds from the
southwest to west will gradually shift to northwesterly by this
evening. sustained winds of 15-20 mph are expected with gusts up
to 35 mph possible. the strongest wind gusts will likely be
isolated to western counties where the strong portion of the llj
will be centered and along the immediate lakeshore. in areas of
snowfall, these gusty winds could result in patchy blowing snow
which could further make travel hazardous. high temperatures
today will be in the low to mid 30s, but with the gusty winds
the apparent temperatures will feel closer to mid teens to low
20s.

key message 2...

on tuesday, a deepening low pressure system will gradually shift
into the western great lakes region with above normal
temperatures ahead of a system expected to usher in an arctic
airmass. high temperatures on tuesday are expected to climb into
the low to mid 40s with wednesday`s highs likely occurring
overnight tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. this strong
temperature gradient will aid in the development of a strong llj
and the ultimate ramping up of winds from the southwest across
the area on tuesday. sustained winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with gusts up to 35-40 mph possible.

key message 3...

a deepening trough digging south across the eastern us will
impact the entire area on wednesday into thursday as an
associate surface low tracks across the great lakes region.
ahead of a strong cold front early wednesday, widespread rain
showers are expected. as this boundary moves east, a much colder
airmass will move into the area, allowing for a fairly quick
transition from rain to snow. cannot rule out some mixed
precipitation or areas of snow squalls. during this transition,
it will be important to watch how quickly temperatures fall for
any additional hazards to become a concern, such as black ice.

there remains differences in the location and timing of this
system amongst long range models which will likely impact the
precipitation type and timing as well. the 2 uncertainties at
this point is how fast does this low shift east as current
models suggest it will slowly meander and how far south does the
surface low shift towards the ohio valley. all models do seem to
be in agreement however that a much colder airmass will bring
the return of below normal temperatures to the area for the end
of the week. once this trough axis and surface low shift east,
there is a potential for lake effect snow showers to occur
across the snowbelt.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
lake-effect snow showers will continue across much of ne ohio
and nw pa through the rest of the afternoon before slowly fading
this evening. this will bring prevailing mvfr, with occasional
ifr as well. the snow showers across nw and north central ohio
around ktol, kfdy, and kmfd will be much more intermittent, but
mvfr will prevail even there the rest of the afternoon. drier
air gradually works into the area tonight, with vfr returning
from west to east. chances for snow showers and mvfr will hold
the longest at keri, but they should be vfr by mid morning
monday. this will set up a break in the weather with vfr into
monday afternoon.

wnw winds of 15-20 knots will gust to 20-30 knots this afternoon
before slowly diminishing to 10-15 knots tonight and turning w.
winds will become sw and quickly increase again to 15-20 knots
with gusts over 20 knots monday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain/snow showers tuesday and
wednesday, with lake effect snow showers possible in ne oh and
nw pa on thursday and friday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front has reached the western basin early this morning
and will cross the lake over the next few hours. winds with this
initial front have been underperforming and most of the lake is
not even achieving small craft advisory level winds, let alone
gales. however, a secondary cold front will enter later this
morning into the afternoon. this second front should allow for
an uptick in winds with the potential for gale force winds to 35
kts for the eastern half of the lake, as winds shift to the west
then northwest. with that, will maintain the current headlines,
but will note that this event is underachieving and can see
headlines get pulled back before the 7 pm end times.

for tonight and beyond, the windy and unsettled pattern will
continue across the lake this week and believe that there will
be several opportunities for additional marine headlines. a
surface ridge building in tonight into monday will bring
elevated southwest winds of 20 kts and the ongoing small craft
advisory may need to be extended further in time. the pressure
gradient with this ridge will weaken on monday night and should
allow for 10 to 15 kt winds and at least one period without a
need for a marine headline. for tuesday, a warm front will lift
across the lake and elevated southwest flow of 15 to 25 kts will
return and a small craft advisory may be needed. a cold front
will cross the lake on wednesday and onshore flow of 15 to 20
kts will overtake the lake and allow for waves over 4 ft,
possibly necessitating any small craft advisories to continue.
high pressure will begin entering on thursday and allow for flow
below 20 kts and waves to subside, likely allowing for a period
or two without a marine headline.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
ohz012>014-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 1 am est monday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez144-
145.
gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez146>149-
166>169.

&&

$$

discussion...04/sefcovic
aviation...garuckas
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
778
fxus63 kiwx 111734
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1234 pm est sun jan 11 2026

.key messages...
- snow chances through late morning, especially near lake
michigan. around 1-2 inches of accumulation are expected along
and north of the toll road. there may be brief reductions in
visibility within snow bands or showers. roads may be slick
and snow covered at times, especially this morning.

- northwest winds will gust up to around 30 to 35 mph today.
temperatures in the 20s, low 30s this morning will climb into
the low to mid 30s this afternoon. gusty winds will make it
feel more like the single digits and teens this morning, and
the 20s this afternoon.

- dry with variable cloud cover tonight into monday night.
highs will be in the upper 30s and low 40s monday, then rise
into the mid-upper 40s by tuesday. the next chance for
precipitation will be tuesday, with an active weather pattern
bringing additional chances through the weekend.

&&

.update...
issued at 1014 am est sun jan 11 2026

a cold, breezy, and snow showery day is ahead. radar imagery
currently shows light radar returns downwind of lake michigan,
indicative of the scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries
that are ongoing. visibilities don`t appear to be impacted much
as many sites are reporting light snow with visibilities still
up around 10 miles. although this is a caa regime,
west/northwest winds have struggled to mix down to the surface
this morning, so have lowered the forecast winds slightly to
account for this. winds may still sporadically gust as high as
25 to 30 mph throughout the afternoon. gusty winds will also
allow for some blowing and drifting snow to occur, especially on
n-s oriented roads today. winds diminish and any remaining snow
will taper off this evening as dry air works into the area.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 425 am est sun jan 11 2026

an upper level low centered over southern ontario/quebec this
morning, with an elongated trough dropping southwest across the cwa
into southern in/oh/il. this trough will pivot east through late
morning, bringing snow showers to much of the forecast area. a
second shortwave (currently over northern mi/upper mi/northern wi)
will then drop through around 15-18z, bringing additional chances
for snow (especially near lake mi with a bit of lake enhancement)
through mid afternoon. there may be a brief lull in snow activity
between the two waves. meanwhile, an upper level ridge builds in
behind the exiting system, eventually crashing inversion
heights/lift by mid-late afternoon (starting in the w-nw). this will
bring an end to any precipitation chances until tuesday as the
ridge/surface high builds in overhead. light to moderate winds this
morning in ne in and nw oh will shift west northwest and gust
between 25-30 knots through the day-with strongest gusts behind the
passing surface cold front/trough as we cold advect. temps drop into
the low-mid 20s (upper 20s nw oh) this morning before rising into
the low-mid 30s. blustery winds will make it feel more like we are
starting out in the single digits and teens this morning-and the low
20s this afternoon.

accumulations wise, expect a total of 1-2 inches (max along toll
road and north into mi), with lesser amounts elsewhere. roads may be
slick and snow covered this morning due to last nights
snowfall/ongoing snowfall today-so be cautious. reductions in
visibility are also expected at times if driving through snow bands
or showers-especially with gusty winds.

dry conditions tonight into monday night with variable cloud cover.
monday will be breezy as winds shift southwest ahead of a passing
wave to the north of our area. lows tonight and monday night will be
in the 20s and low 30s. highs monday will be in the mid-upper 30s.

another active pattern sets up tuesday into the weekend-with a broad
upper level trough overspreading the great lakes region once again.
the first surface low/sharp upper level trough/vort max moves
through tuesday afternoon into thursday, eventually developing into
a closed upper low over southern il/in/ky/tn towards the end of the
period. mild temperatures tuesday, with highs in the mid-upper 40s,
will lead to mostly rain chances through tuesday night (though could
see a rain/snow mix late). expect a mix wednesday that changes to
snow wednesday night into thursday as temps fall from the mid-upper
30s wednesday afternoon into the teens and 20s wednesday night into
thursday (mid-upper 20s by afternoon).

while we may see a brief break in precipitation chances thursday
afternoon into friday as a brief ridge moves through (pops focused
near lake mi), we have yet another upper low (or sharp trough) that
drops into generally the same area as the mid week low, lingering
through the weekend. daytime temperatures in the 20s-30s with
overnight lows in the teens will keep precipitation type as snow.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1225 pm est sun jan 11 2026

lake effect clouds will keep mvfr cigs for both taf sites
through 08z sun or so. lake effect snow showers are expected to
diminish over the next several hours through 21z sat but before
so there may be periods of mvfr vsbys for both taf sites in
light snow. after 08z sun, vfr conditions return accompanied by
gusty southwesterly winds with gusts around 25 kts through a
majority of the remaining taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-046.
small craft advisory until 4 pm est monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...johnson
discussion...mcd
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
224
fxus63 kdtx 111702
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1202 pm est sun jan 11 2026

.key messages...

- drier with seasonable temperatures this afternoon as northwest
winds gust 30 to 35 mph.

- warming trend early next week, with temperatures peaking in the
40s tuesday. a good chance of rain tuesday afternoon and evening.

- next chance of snow wednesday and wednesday night as arctic air
moves into the region. much colder conditions persist through the
end of the week.

&&

.aviation...

very light snow showers have exited as the cold front has passed,
with northwest winds gusting 25-30 knots this afternoon (below the
earlier peaks). difficult low cloud (mvfr) forecast the rest of the
day into evening hours, as conflicting signals whether the low clouds
will dissipate or hold on. ultimately, with low clouds still noted
over wisconsin and winds coming back around to the west this evening,
will err on the more pessimistic side and keep the low clouds in
through the evening, but periods of sct are possible. low level winds
then back around to the southwest tonight, which increase the
chances for low clouds to dissipate over the southern tafs, but
confidence is still shaky. will keep the low clouds in for mbs and
fnt. otherwise, mid clouds (7-12 kft) to work through southeast
michigan (5-12z monday) as upper level disturbance tracks through.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for cigs aob 5000 feet through this evening, low tonight.

* medium for westerly crosswind threshold being met this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 304 am est sun jan 11 2026

discussion...

closed mid level circulation centered over central lake huron
early this morning will wobble northeast over the next 24 hours.
this process will draw the low-mid level trough extension across
southeast michigan throughout the morning. burst of accumulating
snow associated with a lead wing of meaningful height falls and dcva
will fade, as attention shifts to expected improvement in moisture
depth and low level lapse rates going forward this morning as
convergence consolidates along the southward propagating wind shift
axis. this will continue to translate into some intervals of snow
showers throughout the mid-late morning period, with pockets of
higher intensity rates possible given a weakly unstable profile.
residence time likely caps accumulation potential overall. forecast
will continue to highlight a general dusting to half inch of
additional accumulation this morning.

drier conditions emerge as northwest flow increases depth and
magnitude early this afternoon, effectively reducing moisture
quality and ending snowfall chances. moisture depth may eventually
prove shallow enough to afford some peaks of sun late in the day.
resident thermal profile remains seasonable for mid january, with
highs peaking in the upper 20s to lower 30s. period of warm air
advection develops tonight as low level flow turns southwesterly
with passing surface ridging. this offers simply a limited drop in
nocturnal temperatures. weak clipper system glancing across the
great lakes late tonight/monday morning lacks in both available
moisture and associated forcing. perhaps a few flurries or brief
inconsequential light snow showers mainly across the thumb during
this time.

stretch of above average warmth will mark the early week period
under sustained low level southwest flow. temperatures peak this
forecast period tuesday, as readings push into the 40s most
locations. another clipper projected to arrive during the daylight
period. better moisture quality with this system overall, leading to
a good chance of light rain/drizzle lasting into the evening period.

pronounced period of cold air advection will encapsulate the region
midweek, as a stronger lobe of vorticity of arctic origin breaks off
the parent hudson bay low and digs southward. inbound arctic front
anchoring the lead edge of pronounced height falls will arrive
wednesday. high probability of snow across the wed and wed night
periods as governing forcing and the thermal advective process
facilitate a favorable environment. arctic air then entrenched
through the end of the week as high amplitude longwave troughing
engulfs much of the conus. single digit minimum wind chill currently
projected thu/fri mornings. additional mid level energy working
through the mean trough may leave conditions unsettled friday into
next weekend, depending on system trajectory, pace and magnitude. nbm
highlights both the prospects for more unsettled conditions but with
general uncertainty in offering a broad chance mention for snow
throughout this period. temperatures will definitively remain below
average into next weekend.

marine...

a surge of colder air has filled in in the wake of a cold front as
low pressure continues to exit through quebec. the advect of colder
air has enhanced over lake instability where favorable northwest
fetch brings likely gust to gales across central to southern lake
huron into the evening. gale warnings remain in place for the
aforementioned locations. continued backing of winds to the
northwest will rapidly increase wave heights within the saginaw bay
and across the lake huron shoreline, where small craft advisories
are in place. a brief ridge of high pressure will fill in tonight
and tomorrow morning, ending gale chances. conditions remain breezy
through they day tomorrow as the colder air holds. a second low
pressure system enters during the midweek period, bringing renewed
chances for unsettled weather and elevated winds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz363-462>464.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est monday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...mr
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.