Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
341 pm edt mon aug 31 2026

.what has changed...
a heat advisory has been issued from a cleveland-akron-wooster-
mt vernon line points west from tuesday afternoon through
wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) it will be humid with a couple of rain chances through midday
tuesday, but with limited overall impacts/hazards.

2) hot and humid conditions are expected tuesday afternoon
through thursday, with peak heat index values ranging from the
mid 90s to lower 100s and limited overnight relief.

3) an unsettled pattern with multiple risks for thunderstorms
is expected late tuesday through friday. there is considerable
uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of thunderstorms,
but severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a very warm and humid monday afternoon across the area with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s in pa to the upper 80s
in marion and dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s. low
impact weather is expected through tuesday morning, though do
note it will be a muggy night with lows mainly staying up in the
lower to mid 70s with dew points only slightly cooler than that.
a weak shortwave glancing the region may continue to cause a few
light showers (and perhaps a stray storm) across the area
through early this evening before exiting east-southeast.
another shortwave will glance the region late tonight/early
tuesday, which will combine with ongoing warm air/moisture
advection to spark some showers and possibly an isolated storm
late tonight into early tuesday. any showers will exit to the
southeast by midday tuesday.

key message 2...
meteorological fall technically starts on tuesday, but it will
not feel like it with a heat advisory in effect for a good chunk
of the forecast area. upper ridging will reach peak amplitude
across the central and eastern u.s. tuesday and wednesday,
before shifting southwest as troughing builds over the northeast
thursday and friday. a very warm and humid airmass (pwats
climbing to nearly 2.00" and 850mb temperatures topping out at
20-22c) will support what is hopefully the season`s last round
of excessive heat across the local area through thursday.

high temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s on
tuesday with dew points in the low to mid 70s. wednesday appears
to be the hottest day, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to
mid 90s with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s. thursday
will still be quite warm but trend a bit cooler farther north,
with highs forecast to range from the mid 80s to lower 90s with
dew points mainly in the lower 70s. there is some potential for
lingering cloud cover, afternoon convection, and a lake breeze
to keep far northeast oh and northwest pa slightly cooler on
tuesday. convection potential does add some uncertainty for
wednesday and thursday. current consensus is that any lingering
convection will clear early wednesday, with any renewed
activity largely holding off until after peak heating. thursday
appears to have the greatest potential for convection to keep
temperatures cooler than forecast.

arguments for the heat being hazardous/impactful include warm/
humid nights providing for limited relief, the multi-day
duration, and some school buildings not having air conditioning
across the area. so while forecast peak heat index values are
on the lower end for a heat advisory and there is some
uncertainty, opted for a heat advisory from the cleveland-
akron area points west for tuesday and wednesday where
confidence is overall the highest in peak heat index values
nearing or reaching 100 degrees both days. we may need to expand
the advisory east to include more of our eastern ohio counties
for wednesday, but these areas look a bit cooler on tuesday than
areas farther west so left them out for now. parts of the
advisory may need to continue through thursday, though
uncertainty regarding the timing of the cold frontal passage and
convective potential are too high to do that yet.

key message 3...
the local area will be located on the edge of a heat ridge
through much of the week as a front waivers to our north through
wednesday and pushes south thursday and friday. this will place
us in a potentially active corridor of weather for most of the
week, though overall confidence in the timing and location of
greater thunderstorm potential remains low. with that said, an
elevated mixed layer (eml) plume will lead to steeper mid-level
lapse rates atop very warm and humid low-levels, fueling
moderate to very strong instability across the area from tuesday
afternoon until the cold front tries crossing thursday into
friday. west-northwest flow aloft will also be moderately
strong, providing sufficient shear for organized and potentially
severe convection. precipitable water values climbing to
1.70-2.00" in this very warm environment will also support
torrential rain rates within convection and potential for heavy
rain/flash flooding with any training or repeated rounds of
convection through the week.

starting with tuesday and tuesday night, it`s possible much of
the afternoon and evening hours are dry as there is a distinct
lack of large-scale forcing during that time. however, there`s
good agreement in very strong and only weakly capped instability
developing tuesday afternoon/evening. there may be some triggers
for afternoon/evening convection, mainly in the form of a lake
breeze near the northeastern lakeshore and potentially a
differential heating boundary left behind by morning clouds/
showers. these boundaries may support a few storms developing
during the afternoon or evening, mainly across northeastern
portions of our area. greater potential for storms may arrive
overnight tuesday night into very early wednesday morning as a
shortwave glances the region, potentially sparking thunderstorms
upstream that track into the local area. the greatest overall
chances for storms late tuesday and tuesday night will be across
northern portions of the area (including lake erie, northeast
oh, and northwest pa) with chances diminishing to the southwest.

it currently appears that any lingering activity will exit
early wednesday, leaving a period of drier weather through the
day. a shortwave will approach and move through late wednesday
and wednesday night as the surface cold front approaches from
the north. the current forecast favors potential for isolated to
scattered storms to try developing late wednesday afternoon or
evening, especially along the lake breeze or any boundaries left
by earlier convection, with greater potential sagging in from
the north/northwest later wednesday night. will need to closely
monitor this progression as hi-res models that run out through
wednesday (such as the 12z rrfs) do offer some potential for
organized convection to arrive as early as wednesday afternoon.

the same general pattern persists on thursday and possibly even
for friday, though details become quite murky by then and it`s
possible the front clears at least parts of our area. the
general theme is that unsettled weather remains in the forecast
for thursday and friday with lingering potential for organized
and potentially severe convection along and ahead of the front.
the greatest concern will gradually shift towards our
southwestern counties thursday and friday. the hope is that
high pressure to the northeast presses in enough to push the
front out of the area this weekend. confidence in that scenario
is not high so some lower rain chances remain in the forecast
for saturday and sunday, especially farther south and west.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
isolated rain showers with vfr conditions are possible over the
next couple but should dissipate as they move southeast. light
rain showers could linger in northwest pennsylvania tonight but
otherwise vfr is expected. isolated to scattered showers could
develop tuesday morning approximately 11-15z with some better
chance at non-vfr occurring, though this is very low confidence
at this point.

outlook...several rounds of thunderstorms are possible across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania tuesday through
wednesday night, with a better chance at showers and storms
elsewhere in the area thursday and thursday night.

&&

.marine...
broad southwest flow is expected as the warm front pushes northeast
of lake erie, and will continue through at least wednesday night
before a cold front moves south across the lake on thursday. there
are a couple periods that winds could briefly reach 20 knots though
small craft advisories are not expected at this time. through the
week, there will be multiple chances for thunderstorms, though
timing if very uncertain at this point. any thunderstorms that do
occur could become strong to severe with a good chance of producing
winds > 34 knots and hail > 0.75".

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from 2 pm tuesday to 8 pm edt wednesday for
ohz003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036-037-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
209 pm edt mon aug 31 2026

.key messages...

- heat indices of 100 to 105 are forecasted tuesday and
wednesday afternoon in northern indiana and northwestern ohio.
a heat advisory is in effect.

- chances for showers and isolated storms will diminish through
the afternoon.

- isolated thunderstorms are possible tuesday afternoon and
again wednesday afternoon and evening, with the greatest
chances north of us route 6. locally gusty winds are possible,
but confidence is low on overall chances.

- hotter and more humid conditions build through midweek,
peaking tuesday into wednesday when afternoon heat indices may
reach to around 100 degrees. heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100 may linger into thursday mainly to the south of us
route 30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 pm edt mon aug 31 2026

main changes from recent forecasts was somewhat higher
confidence in main axis of storms and impacts of heat/humidity
tue-wed.

scattered to at times numerous showers have dotted the skies
through the morning, with the main area slowly starting to shift
east. additional development appears to be trying to expand
in portions of nw il to west central lower mi in association
with a weak mid-level wave. models doing poorly on handling
this, so confidence regarding evolution on the lower side.
suspect at least some cin should be in place with the morning
showers, but a pocket of clearing is noted that may help
overcome some of that. most likely this will remain west and
north of the area, but trends will need to be watched for
possible inclusion of pops in nw areas.

focus then shifts to concerns for heat and humidity as upper
level ridge builds north and shifts the axis of showers/storms
into wi/mi through mid week. models seem to be leaning towards
this trend, but concerns still linger some given low confidence
in model handling of subsequent waves and pops. also, spc has
maintained the marginal risk for severe storms across the
northern half of the area (possibly overdone). after much
collaboration, it was decided to hoist a heat advisory from 16z
tue through 00z thu for all of northern indiana and northwestern
ohio where the greatest confidence exists for heat indices of
around 100 degrees to possibly as high as 105 degrees. greatest
confidence does exist on wed for criteria being met, but close
enough to just go with both days. concerns could linger across
southern areas thursday, but was decided to defer to later
forecasts.

thereafter, additional chances for convection and/or heat
concerns will hinge on the position of the upper level ridge
resulting in sporadic pops into the weekend and somewhat cooler
temperatures.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1224 pm edt mon aug 31 2026

as an upper level ridge continues to build overhead, scattered
light rain showers will diminish throughout the afternoon. have
kept in a prob30 at kfwa until 20z to account for any lingering
rain. vfr ceilings are expected to persist through the taf
forecast period, with clearing commencing this evening around
sunset. southwesterly winds may gust as high as 15-20 kts this
afternoon, with winds becoming light overnight. dry conditions
persist through tuesday as well.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory from 2 pm edt /1 pm cdt/ tuesday to 8 pm edt /7
pm cdt/ wednesday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory from 2 pm tuesday to 8 pm edt wednesday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
321 pm edt mon aug 31 2026

.key messages...

- very warm or hot and humid conditions develop tuesday and
wednesday, though cloud cover and storm potential introduce
uncertainty into peak daily temperatures and heat indices.

- periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
much of the week. tuesday carries a marginal risk for severe
weather, with wednesday carrying a marginal to slight risk.

&&

.discussion...

southeast michigan will remain on the outer fringe of a strong upper
level ridge (~597 dam at 500m mb) centered over kentucky/tennessee
tuesday-wednesday. this presents a challenging temperature forecast
as clouds and convection could impact the maxes, as they have done
the past couple of days. high-res models are continuing to struggle
with the extent of showers and thunderstorms, and preference was to
include a low chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight and
tomorrow. a shortwave is tracking through the midwest this afternoon
and will round the weak ridge axis in place across western/central
great lakes tonight. there is a good 850-700 mb theta-e ridge/deep
moisture axis straddling the southern michigan border, and with
another subtle moisture surge late tonight along and south of i-94
corridor. at the very least, would expect some convective debris
lingering through the morning hours, which raises concern the max
temps make not make it into the lower 90s and will end up closer to
90 degrees. thus, confidence was not high enough to issue a heat a
advisory for the possible heat indices of 95-100 degrees. some drying
and warming in the mid levels is expected tomorrow afternoon, which
should serve as some semblance of a cap, though it is still not
totally clear if it will hold completely. if a remnant boundary or
lake breeze is able to get something going, isolated severe storms
are possible with mlcape of 2000+ j/kg advertised and favorable 0-6
km bulk shear of 40+ knots. both severe wind and hail possible with
the high degree of instability and updraft strength.

meanwhile, a seasonably strong upper level low is tracking through
central canada and will slowly fill as it tracks through northwest
ontario late tomorrow. uncertainty remains on how well it will drive
a surface frontal boundary meandering over the great lakes region
south. upper level disturbance(s) coming out of the four corners
region look to arrive into the western/central great lakes tuesday
night and especially wednesday. exact timing will be important for
severe chances, and spc day 3 outlook continues to highlight a
slight risk for severe storms. bulk shear will be very high, and
there is a legit chance for convection to develop tuesday night into
wednesday morning, once again impacting maxes and severe chances.
there still is not enough of a southward push to the front for
thursday, so a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms remains
possible as the ridge axis builds back over the mississippi river
valley to end the workweek.

&&

.marine...

low pressure system over southern manitoba has an occluded front
reaching down into northern minnesota with a warm front then
extending east through the straits and northern lake huron. a series
of mid level disturbances have been initiating rounds of showers and
thunderstorms which will continue to occur through wednesday until
the cold front drops through. any break in the rain will be short
lived as the front lifts back north on thursday providing additional
chances of storms. winds will be fluctuating alot this week with the
frequency of frontal passages. the weak gradient will keep speeds
down through the week though with max wind gusts rarely touching 20
knots. the slightly cooler air over the waters brings chances of
waterspouts with any of the storms over the lakes this week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 122 pm edt mon aug 31 2026

aviation...

organized rain chances will persist into the afternoon with elevated
warm front and deep thetae advection occuring over the central great
lakes. subsidence in the wake warm front will lead to convective
inhibition in the lowest 5.0 kft agl this evening and tonight. low
confidence then moving forward with lower predictability as
instability will provide a possibility for convection at any point in
the taf forecast cycle. there is a few hiresolution runs that
suggest some elevated thunderstorm chances for the the northern
forecast area including mbs. will maintain a dry forecast for the
detroit terminals and monitor the latest guidance. vfr conditions are
anticipated for the period tonight and early tuesday.

d21/dtw convection...the presence of instability aloft tonight will
support a low chance (<30 percent) of convection across the airspace
throughout the taf period. low confidence in occurrence and/or
timing.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and early tuesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......drk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.