Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
114
fxus61 kcle 180416
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1116 pm est wed dec 17 2025

.synopsis...
a weak cold front will move out of the great lakes region into
new england this afternoon and evening, followed by a deep low
pressure system transiting the upper midwest and northern great
lakes thursday. high pressure will build across the region
saturday with a cold front passing through sunday.

&&

.near term /through thursday/...
an upper-level trough and low pressure system currently
impacting the pacific northwest will make it way eastward across
the great plains and upper midwest today, transiting the
northern great lakes by thursday. this system will phase with a
southern stream jet lifting north across the tennessee valley.
an associated warm front will lift northward across the southern
great lakes tonight, placing our region within the warm sector
tomorrow. highs are expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s
thursday. onset of rainfall across the region has slowed
slightly, with precipitation expected area-wide tomorrow
afternoon into the overnight hours. rainfall of a half inch is
likely thursday, with two thirds of an inch across areas south
and east.

southerly flow continues into thursday, with a warm sector low-
level jet of 50-60 knots. modest instability coupled with the
llj will increase the likelihood of low topped convection and a
fast moving squall line along/ahead of the frontal boundary.
winds thursday will frequently gust to 30-40 mph, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. a few isolated gusts to
45-50 mph are possible, especially across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania where downsloping will aid stronger
gusts. however, the strongest flow aloft is expected during
precipitation, which is likely to stabilize the boundary layer
resulting in reduced mixing and precluding any stronger gusts. a
wind advisory has been issued for erie county, pa where higher
gusts have the best potential to be realized.

&&

.short term /thursday night through saturday night/...
this system will move eastward across the northern great lakes
and into western ontario thursday night into friday, allowing
for cold air behind the front to rapidly drop temperatures
below freezing by friday morning. scattered snow showers are
expected during the day friday, with lake-induced instability
resulting in snow showers across the primary snowbelt of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through the day
friday. these snow bands will gradually diminish friday night,
with accumulations of 3-5" expected in northwest pennsylvania,
and 1-3" in northeast ohio.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
a "see-saw" pattern will persist through the long term, with high
pressure exiting the region sunday as another system moves
across the northern great lakes into ontario. an associated cold
front will bring mild/breezy conditions but little to no
precipitation. high pressure builds in monday with near normal
temperatures expected, followed by a weak cold frontal passage
tuesday with a slight chance of rain.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with deterioration to
non-vfr likely towards the end of the taf period. a line of
heavy rain associated with a cold front will move west to east
across the area towards the end of the taf period late thursday
evening, bringing a brief period of gusty winds and ifr vsbys.

otherwise, the main concern for the taf period will be the
potential for widespread llws beginning late tonight and
persisting through late thursday morning and perhaps even into
the afternoon hours. a strong south to southwest low-level jet
of 40 to 50 knots will overspread the region, with surface
winds generally favoring a south to even southeast direction at
times, 10 to 15 knots. as the trough approaches by late
thursday afternoon, surface winds will increase to 20 to 22
knots, and shift more towards the south, decreasing the llws
threat. south winds will occasionally gust around 35 knots
across the taf sites thursday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr likely in snow showers on friday. west winds
may also gust in the 30 to 35 knot range on friday. mainly vfr
expected for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory remains in effect until 7 pm today from
vermilion to ripley
- gale watch has been issued from 7 pm thursday evening to 7 pm
friday evening from vermilion to ripley

note: the latest available ice analysis indicates most of the
western basin of lake erie, including sandusky bay, is ice-covered.
the following wave height forecast values are for ice-free waters.
milder weather today and tomorrow, along with periodic and
relatively-strong winds today through friday, should cause the ice
to decay.

elevated westerly winds will continue to abate from west the east
this afternoon. small craft advisory remains in effect from
willowick eastward until 7 pm. a lull in elevated winds is expected
with winds dropping below sca criteria after 00z thu. a deep surface
low will approach lake superior overnight. winds will become
southerly and approach sca criteria across the central part of lake
erie by 09z thursday and rest of the lake by 12z thursday. will
allow the existing sca to expire and issue a new sca for this
separate wind event for the lake early thursday.

south winds of 20 to 25 knots thursday morning will increase to 25
to 30 knots thursday afternoon. surface low is expected to push east
dragging a cold front across the lake thursday evening after 00z
friday. ample warm air advection ahead of the front along with
strengthening low level winds will allow the southerly low level
winds to increase 45 knots thursday afternoon. cloud cover and cool
waters will prevent those winds from completely mixing down. later
packages will have monitor the southerly winds thursday afternoon.

another lull in winds is expected thursday evening before the cold
front pushes through the lake between 03z and 09z friday. westerly
boundary layer winds 35 to 40 knots with cold air advection will mix
down on the lake and yield gale force winds late thursday through
friday evening. issued a gale watch from vermilion to east to new
york waters 00z fri to 00z sat

prolong strong westerly winds will displace lake level from the
western basin late thursday through friday. a seiche is likely late
thursday into friday and will likely prompt a low water advisory for
the western basin.

a ridge axis should quickly move in and allow winds to decrease
quickly friday. warm air advection and southerly winds will occur
saturday morning with winds reaching sca criteria saturday morning.
another cold front will sweep through sunday morning with strong
northwest wind reaching sca through sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory from 11 am thursday to 1 am est friday for
paz001-002.
marine...gale watch from thursday evening through friday evening for
lez144>149-164>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...garuckas/27
near term...garuckas/27
short term...garuckas/27
long term...garuckas/27
aviation...kahn
marine...fz

Fulton and Henry Counties

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813
fxus63 kiwx 172351
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 pm est wed dec 17 2025

.key messages...
- mild thursday with highs near 50. turning sharply colder
friday with highs near 25.

- rain changing to snow thursday night before ending friday. any
snow accumulations should be less than 1 inch.

- cold friday with highs near 25. seasonably mild saturday with
highs around 40 to 45.

- dry and cold sunday and monday with highs in the 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 207 pm est wed dec 17 2025

the previous forecast discussion adequately described the forecast
temperature changes over the next several days as "...a wild roller
coaster ride...". highs over the next few days will range from the
20s to the 50s. at the onset, mild air was spreading northeast over
snow covered ground. snow depths this morning were generally 3" or
less. snow water equivalent amounts were mainly less than half an
inch. combined rainfall and snow melt amounts through thursday night
should be mostly under 1 inch. given the very low river stages and
limited water from snow melting and rain falling, hydrologic issues
area not expected.

the strong cold front will bring the likelihood of a flash freeze
early thursday night. breezy to windy conditions will help
evaporate or sublimate water and ice, and should help limit traffic
issues. some concern with very strong winds mixing down with the
passage of the front. bufkit gfs indicated winds at sbn (south "
bend) up to 80 mph at only 2000 feet. the frontal inversion is
strong and will help limit mixing down of the higher momentum. rain
will change to light snow before ending early friday. snowfall
amounts should be around a half an inch of less (around half an inch
near and north of the michigan line to less than 1/2" over indiana
and ohio. as for the weekend into the middle of next week, conditions
should be mild and mainly dry sunday through wednesday with highs
in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 637 pm est wed dec 17 2025

vfr conditions early in this forecast period however winds and
moisture will be on the uptick after 08z thu for ksbn ahead of
an incoming cold frontal boundary with increase in chances of
precipitation, lowering cigs to mvfr, slight vsby drops in
precipitation, and low level wind shear into this afternoon.
kfwa will also see these impacts after 10z thu with lowering
cigs to mvfr after 13z thu with further moistening of the near
surface levels as the boundary transits eastward. further
lowering of cigs to ifr cats and periods of ifr vsbys in mist
and light precipitation after 13z for ksbn and after 21z thu for
kfwa. peak southerly wind gusts up to 30 to 35 knots expected
through thursday afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm est
thursday for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 7 pm thursday to 7 am est friday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
943
fxus63 kdtx 180432
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1132 pm est wed dec 17 2025

.key messages...

- mild with high temps in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees on
thursday.

- widespread rainfall is expected on thursday, along with gusty
winds of 30-40 mph into friday as well.

- there is the potential for any moisture on roadways to flash
freeze thursday night as arctic air moves back into the region.

- scattered-numerous light snow showers thursday night-friday
morning, with isolated embedded snow squalls possible into the
afternoon. snowfall accumulations up to an inch in the heaviest
activity. expect the friday morning commute to be impacted and allow
for extra time.

&&

.aviation...

respectable boundary layer cooling around metro detroit this evening
under clear skies and light winds has led to some mvfr fog. the fog
should remain shallow through the night as rapid strengthening of
the wind fields occur atop the shallow nighttime stable layer. these
increasing winds (40-50 knots at 1500 to 2000 feet) will continue to
warrant the mention of low level wind shear into the early morning
hours. subtle daytime heating and warm air advection into the
boundary layer will transition the low level wind shear to gusty
winds at the surface, with peak gusts expected to top 25 knots thurs
afternoon.

the increase in south wind fields will be preceding a strong sfc
cold front, forecast to pass across se mi late thurs afternoon and
evening. low level moisture across the lower ohio valley will lift
into srn mi during the course of the morning as a result of the
strengthening south flow. this will result in lowering ceiling
heights (mvfr to ifr) during the day thursday. broad large scale
ascent along/ahead of the cold front and associated upper level
trough will result in a widespread region of rain thurs afternoon
and early evening, with the potential for some shallow convection
along the surface cold front.

for dtw...the trajectory of the moisture transport suggests the
lower clouds (mvfr and ifr) will hold west of metro into thurs
afternoon. the cold front is forecast to pass across metro between
23z and 02z thurs evening. there is a chance for some high intensity
showers embedded within the broader region of light rain during this
time period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet thursday and thursday night.

* high in precipitation type being all rain thursday and thursday
evening.

* low in crosswinds thresholds being exceeded after 08z friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 pm est wed dec 17 2025

discussion...

the active and progressive jet stream across the northern tier of
the conus will continue through the forecast period with one of the
strongest, most dynamic systems in a few weeks impacting the region
tomorrow into friday. this system will bring above normal
temperatures and moderate rainfall thursday, both of which will aide
in snow melt, and also elevated winds thursday and friday, rapidly
falling temps thursday night with light snow and possibly squalls
into friday before finally settling down for the weekend.

temperatures were able to touch 40 at most locations across se mi
today as heights rose a bit behind this mornings trough, aided by
clearing skies. as the upper level trough digs into the plains
tonight and deepens with the inbound 160 knot upper level jet,
downstream ridge amplification will lead to more rapidly building
heights and warm air advection with strong southerly low level jet
kicking in so expecting highs into the mid to upper 40s thursday.
some southern locations may touch 50 as well.

thursday will also be a wet day with prefrontal rain developing
through the day and possible convective rain along the strong cold
front in the evening. local probabilistic guidance shows above an
80% chance for all locations to receive a quarter inch of rainfall
from about 18-06z and mainly less than a 20% chance to reach a half
inch. national guidance falls in line with this as the mean value
for the 12 hour period is roughly 0.3-0.4 inches with 90% percentile
values reaching 0.5-0.6 inches. so current forecast for around 0.4
is very reasonable. adding snow melt which currently holds around 0.5-
1.0 inches of water, do expect some rises in local waterways but
current guidance suggests it won`t be enough to cause flooding.

frontal passage in the evening then opens the door for rapid cooling
with 850mb temps dropping from 6c at 00z, -2c at 06z and -11c by
12z. residual water on roads may rapidly freeze as air temps quickly
drop into the mid to upper 20s after dark. additionally, the strong
cold westerly winds will excite lake effect with bands of snow
working east across lower mi. still no real strong signal with low
level convergence which would suggest higher confidence for any
corridor to overachieve with lake effect bands setting up. still,
strong winds and snow overnight thursday into friday morning will
offer a chance for brief snow squalls. currently only thinking
around a half inch of snow is most likely as mixing depths are
topping out around 5kft. though this does pass through the dgz, it`s
a bit shallower than we`d like to see for higher end lake effect.

as briefly mentioned, winds will be elevated thursday and friday.
thursday will be prefrontal south/southeasterly winds but a strong
inversion will prevent mixing down the strongest of winds with most
models topping gusts off around 20-30 mph over land. friday winds
will be stronger as the cold advection helps mixing depths increase
to around 5kft. probabilistic guidance shows the only chance (less
than 20%) for the northern thumb to hit 45 mph with gusts. most of
the guidance centers in the 30-40 mph range. so an isolated gust
could reach wind advisory criteria, but doesn`t look to be the norm.

high pressure builds back across the ohio valley and up into mi
through the day friday and lingering through saturday. this will be
short lived though as the progressive pattern holds and the next low
tracking through ontario brings the next cold front through lower mi
saturday evening or overnight.

marine...

quiet conditions persist through the evening, followed by winds
quickly organizing out of the south overnight as low pressure tracks
along the conus-canada border. low level winds ahead of this low
intensify rapidly thursday, approaching 70 knots at 850mb. warm and
stable conditions prevent this magnitude of winds from reaching the
surface, but even the shallow mixing depths will still be capable of
35-40 knot gusts across the open waters. a gale warning has been
issued as a result. higher stability toward the shoreline keeps
gusts around 30 knots, although overachievement in mixing may
require an observation-based upgrade for the nearshore zones. the
low eventually draws a cold front across the great lakes thursday
evening, affording a brief lull in wind gusts before ramping back up
early friday morning as strong cold advection begins. the colder air
erodes stability to support a second wave of gale force gusts, this
time out of the west-northwest and for both the nearshore and open
waters. in addition to wind/wave concerns, the front will also focus
a band of rain showers across the great lakes thursday evening
followed by a transition to lake enhanced snow for friday. snow
squalls will be possible given the gusty winds. high pressure then
arrives friday night, bringing a brief reprieve from the active
stretch, although yet another low pressure system tracks through
ontario saturday night-sunday which carries additional gale
potential.

hydrology...

milder temperatures bring snow melt across the area and widespread
rainfall is expected thursday from late morning into the evening.
maximum snow water equivalent in the deeper snow pack is currently
around 1 inch. basin average rainfall totals around half an inch are
expected, which with the snow melt may lead to ponding on roadways.
rises on area rivers are likely late this week, but flood conditions
are not anticipated.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 7 pm est friday for lhz361>363-462.

small craft advisory until midnight est thursday night for lhz421-
441>443.

gale watch from late thursday night through friday evening for
lhz421-422-441>443.

low water advisory from 7 am thursday to 7 pm est friday for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 7 am thursday to midnight est thursday
night for lhz422.

gale warning from 7 am thursday to 7 pm est friday for lhz463-464.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 7 am thursday to 7 pm est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 7 am thursday to 7 pm est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......mv
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.