Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
142
fxus61 kcle 041824
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
224 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

.what has changed...
near term severe threat has significantly diminished due to
convection over the area this morning and early afternoon. best
window for impactful convection over the area is later this
evening if the atmosphere destabilizes upstream.

&&

.key messages...
1) severe and heavy rainfall threat has continued to shift
south and west of the area this afternoon, with a more uncertain
severe weather threat later this evening.

2) aside from some possible showers and storms saturday, dry
conditions will persist through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the severe weather threat this afternoon has quickly diminished
across most of the forecast area, as convective overturning has
stabilized the airmass over northern ohio. instability gradient
has shifted south of the forecast area this afternoon, and
weakening convection across northeast indiana into northwest
ohio may further reinforce the outflow boundary southward.

cams have struggled to assimilate ongoing convection/precip
over the past 12 hours, but the focus for potential severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall is with any development
upstream/over the area in the 00z-03z time frame. however,
confidence is decreasing on the magnitude of severe weather with
instability shunted south and west of the area and limited time
for recovery/advection into the local area. storms will be
mostly elevated during this timeframe, with some hail and heavy
rainfall possible. if storms develop rooted in the boundary
layer, there could be a damaging wind risk and a brief window
for a tornado, although confidence is low and decreasing at the
moment. heavy rainfall would also be a threat with additional
development, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas with
training storms and/or areas with saturated soils due to recent
heavy rainfall.

key message 2...
the pesky frontal boundary that has been focused over the area
most of this week will finally push south of the area late
saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the north
behind a southeast moving shortwave from the lower great lakes
to the mid atlantic. as the front departs, a few
isolated/scattered showers and storms may impact the area through
midday saturday before dry conditions persist under the high
through at least tuesday. seasonable temperatures expected
through monday before a brief warmup into midweek. a weak cold
front should move southeast through the area sometime mid to
late week before additional high pressure returns to the area by
the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
rain showers with isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across
parts of the area, with expectations for them to dissipate over
the next couple hours. a few mvfr clouds are lingering across
far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania over the next hour
or two, but otherwise should be vfr through at least 00z.

additional thunderstorms may develop near kfdy, ktol, and kmfd
between 00-10z but at this point it`s very low confidence in
this occurrence. elsewhere, mvfr/ifr ceilings and visibilities
will likely develop areawide tonight, with a low chance for lifr
or lower in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. any ifr
that develops will improve to mvfr by late morning with vfr
becoming more common early saturday afternoon.

light and variable winds become northeast 8-10 knots late
saturday morning through the afternoon. winds may be stronger by
1-3 knots closer to the lake erie shoreline.

outlook...non-vfr possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
waves around a foot or less through today, followed by a cold
front coming through tonight. winds then come around to the
northeast 10-15 knots and wave heights increasing to 2-3 ft
saturday afternoon through sunday night. there is a chance for
locally stronger winds in the central basin sunday afternoon,
especially east of the islands towards the vicinity of
cleveland. northeast winds continue into monday before gradually
veering to south and southwest tuesday into tuesday night.
southwest winds may strengthen to around 20 knots, becoming west
and northwest as a cold front crosses the lake on thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...03
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
159
fxus63 kiwx 041826
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
226 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

.key messages...

- heat indices around 100 degrees will persist into this evening
in areas not fortunate enough to see a brief shower or storm.
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s are possible south of
route 30 saturday.

- 20-40% chance of thunderstorms continues into tonight with low
confidence on location, coverage and timing. locally damaging
winds are possible with the stronger storms.

- a dry pattern takes over sunday through tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 226 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

models continue to point towards a transition to a drier and
somewhat cooler pattern, but as has been the case the past several
days confidence in the finer details of this remain uncertain.

the quasi-stationary boundary remains in place from southern wi to
northern parts of our forecast area and into ohio with a series of
outflow boundaries from multiple clusters of storms south of the
boundary. a line of showers and storms moved off the lake and
was progressing se, but has underwent a weakening trend over the
past hour or so. additional storms are trying to get going along
a outflow boundary in portions of cass co to jay county in.
expect widely scattered to scattered storms to persist ahead of
these area with a window of little/no convection. somewhat
better upper level dynamics and another wave arrive this evening
with limited consensus on isol-sct storms re-developing, but
timing, strength and location differences persist. will keep any
pops no higher than chance across mainly ne half of the area
this evening with a slow southward trend overnight (and
decreasing pops). slight risk for severe continues, but
confidence in overall threat is also low as best shear likely to
remain near the front. for saturday, wherever the front finally
settles in late am into the afternoon will likely see at least
some isolated to maybe scattered development. model blend is
rather messy and although tempted to make some changes, just not
enough confidence mess with anything.

sunday through tuesday still appear to be cooler and less humid with
more pleasant highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s
as the upper level ridge retrogrades slightly to the west. this
doesn`t last long with a push back northeast occuring for the second
half of the week and subsequent return to chances for convection
and/or increasing heat and humidity.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 140 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

main area of concern is the continued convection opportunities this
evening into saturday morning as a weak area of low pressure forms
in southern lower michigan in warm advection and shifts towards
ohio. this storm track appears more conducive to providing storm
chances to fwa as opposed to sbn, although it cannot be ruled
out there. given this opportunity, and with aviation guidance
pointing to some reduced flight conditions, will include that in
tafs as well. prevailing southwest winds may briefly change for
a few hours as outflow boundaries push through the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz004-005-015-
016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
632
fxus63 kdtx 041824
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
224 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

.key messages...

- there remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
tonight. while widespread severe weather is not expected, an
isolated stronger storm will be possible.

- more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity are slated to
return this weekend.

&&

.discussion...

ongoing elevated convective activity fixated along a lingering
baroclinic zone and within the background of continued sufficient
mid level instability will settle to the south over the next couple
hours. lack of meaningful daytime heating within the immediate wake
of the earlier activity offering a more notable reduction in
available instability moving forward. this occurs within an
environment seemingly lacking in greater tangible forced ascent as
more pronounced shortwave energy embedded within the mean mid level
northwest flow traverses south and west the area. little evidence
within short range model guidance to suggest additional larger scale
redevelopment will occur at least through the back half of the peak
heating cycle. a more localized response remains plausible,
particularly near the ohio border, given closer proximity to the
deeper instability reservoir. it would be within this environment
that s secondary, isolated opportunity remains for more organized
cells to emerge locally or track in from southern wi late this
evening into early tonight /22z-04z/ across that corridor. forecast
maintains a lower end chance mention most locations through the
night, accounting for the presence of some elevated instability
/highest with westward extent/ and sufficiently moist boundary layer
conditions to support an early morning flare-up of showers.

the surface frontal zone sags south of the michigan/ohio border
through saturday morning. isentropic upglide and lingering low-level
convergence along the stalling frontal boundary will keep a low-end
chance for scattered showers or an isolated rumble of thunder
focused primarily across the southern tier of counties (m-59
southward to the ohio border) early saturday. otherwise,
significantly less supportive airmass as available instability lacks
as surface dew points scour out into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
expect decreasing cloud cover from north to south through the
afternoon as surface high pressure expands over the upper great
lakes. onshore lake-breeze components off lake huron will keep
eastern and coastal areas cooler. high temperatures more comfortably
top out in the mid-to-upper 70s saturday. high confidence then
exists in dry and benign conditions holding through the remainder of
the weekend as expansive high pressure centers directly over lower
michigan. the deep layer stability held with this environment
ensures limited cloud production, while temperatures hover near-
normal for early september.

low to mid level ridging will continue to mark conditions during the
early week period. associated deep layer stability with a very dry
profile ensures benign weather, with the incremental increase in the
mid level height field netting a very modest warming trend but with
temps still seasonable. low-level return flow around the backside of
the departing surface high pushes 850 mb temperatures back into the
+16 to +18c range by wednesday afternoon. an associated increase in
low level moisture quality likely to commence at the same time ahead
of an inbound cold front tied to a northern stream shortwave moving
across ontario. this will bring the next chance for meaningful
rainfall, followed by a more notable cooling trend directed for the
end of next week.

&&

.marine...

greatest thunderstorm potential will generally remain south of the
waterways through tonight, although an isolated storm cannot be
ruled out. otherwise, high pressure anchored over ontario will
increase influence heading into the weekend. this will bring drier
and more stable conditions. prevailing wind from the northeast may
bring a modest increase in wave action along portions of the lake
huron nearshore waters, but are expected to remain below advisory
levels at this time.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 151 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

aviation...

the frontal boundary and associated instability responsible for
convection yesterday/this morning have started to settle south
toward the ohio border. this pushes the main corridor of
thunderstorms chances south of the terminals through the afternoon-
evening, with just a low chance for redevelopment in the local
airspace. as the front drops south, moisture pooling and weak
gradient flow will afford another opportunity for low stratus/fog
development overnight. daytime mixing attempts to scatter this out
saturday afternoon, although the ne flow component off the lake
could cause stratus to linger in some spots.

d21/dtw convection... the main instability pool has shifted south of
dtw/d21 leaving just a low chance for thunderstorm redevelopment
this afternoon-evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and saturday morning.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......mr
aviation.....mv

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.