Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1156 pm est fri mar 6 2026

.what has changed...
the evolution of ongoing showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
approaching cold front saturday morning remains uncertain, which
continues to limit confidence in how organized the local severe
thunderstorm threat will be saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated shower/thunder chances through early saturday, with
greater coverage of showers and storms expected to develop late
saturday morning and afternoon. a few storms may turn severe,
particularly between 12 pm and 5 pm east of the i-71 corridor.
potential for organized severe weather remains uncertain.

2) the next period of unsettled weather is expected tuesday into
wednesday, with the greatest potential for rain and perhaps more
thunderstorms expected tuesday night into wednesday.

3) above average temperatures will continue through tuesday
night. temperatures will return back to near or slightly below
normal by late wednesday into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a couple subtle pushes of low-level theta-e advection are
expected through early saturday...one pushing across northwest
oh early this afternoon and expected to progress east-northeast
into this evening...and another expected to push east across the
area later this evening and overnight. each may provide enough
forcing for isolated shower/thunder potential at times through
early saturday, though the general flavor of the forecast will
be mainly dry (and quite warm/humid by early march standards!)
through the rest of today and tonight. it will be remarkably
mild tonight with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s to
low 60s, outside of the chillier immediate lakeshore.

the main focus for rain and thunder potential, along with a risk
for severe weather, remains during the day saturday along and
ahead of a cold front that will sweep through. however, the
impact of pre-frontal convection that will likely be ongoing
saturday morning on the severe threat remains uncertain,
leading to lower confidence in that severe potential.

guidance is in good agreement that convection will be ongoing
just to our west along a pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary
ahead of an approaching cold front to start saturday morning,
with mainly dry (and warm) weather expected to start saturday
across the area. this activity is expected to continue east into
northwest ohio by later saturday morning, likely on a weakening
trend through the late morning during the diurnal convective
minimum. by midday/early afternoon, destabilization and
gradually increasing forcing (evidenced by subtle 500mb height
falls and the approaching right-entrance quadrant of a 150kt
upper jet streak) will lead to convection increasing in coverage
and intensity along the advancing pre-frontal trough/outflow
boundary. there`s also good agreement that comparatively weaker
showers/storms will try to develop along the cold front itself,
pushing into northwest ohio later saturday afternoon and
progressing east-southeast across the local area through
saturday evening. given all of this, am generally expecting two
rounds of convective potential to sweep east across the area
saturday into saturday evening with a brief lull in between.

where the uncertainty comes in is how quickly that first/pre-
frontal round of convection moves east across the area. the
more conducive thermodynamic will exist ahead of this activity,
with weaker heating and somewhat weaker mid-level lapse rates
behind it. if this initial activity advances through faster it
will have less time to intensify and organize across our area,
keeping the greater severe threat to our southeast. a number of
12z models suggest that, lowering confidence in severe
potential locally. it is a fine line as convection will likely
start upticking by midday, so even a slightly slower trend (as
several earlier hrrr runs showed) could lead to a round of
organized convection with severe potential as far west as about
the i-71 corridor. the environment ahead of the pre-frontal
trough is expected to feature modest (500-1000 j/kg of mlcape)
instability, somewhat steep (~6.5c/km) mid-level lapse rates,
reasonably well-mixed low-levels (sfc-3km lapse rates
~8.0c/km), and moderate effective bulk shear (~40-45kt). quickly
increasing but largely unidirectional low-level wind profiles
should supply ~40kt of 0-3km shear and 150-200 m2/s2 of
effective srh. the uncapped instability, increasing forcing, and
deep-layer shear largely paralleling the surface boundaries
argue for a mainly messy/linear storm mode, with short line
segments likely favored after what may be a brief, early window
of semi-discrete activity. this adds up to potential for an
organized damaging wind threat with more robust line segments,
with a non-zero (but not incredibly high) tornado risk given
sufficient low-level shear for mesovort development. there may
be some hail, especially with any more discrete cells, though
that`s more of a secondary threat. given lingering uncertainty,
the day 2 spc convective outlook remains unchanged with a
slight risk (level 2/5, driven by damaging wind potential)
primarily east of the i-71 corridor...the location of ongoing
convection early saturday and how quickly it moves east across
the area will be critical to the overall severe threat.

any convection that spreads in from the west during the late
afternoon/early evening along the cold front itself will be in a
very marginal thermodynamic environment with weak/skinny
instability profiles. however, strong forcing and deep-layer
shear could allow for at least an isolated severe threat late
saturday afternoon and early evening with any cold frontal
convection. the potential for stronger convection on the cold
front is generally low, but could increase a bit if the first
round exits quicker. a marginal risk (level 1/5) covers our
western counties between both potential rounds of convection.

area average qpf through saturday evening is mainly modest,
generally in the 0.10-0.40" range (highest southeast). locally
1.00-2.00" may occur if any parts of the area see multiple
storms or brief training convection, though those higher amounts
would be the exception rather than the rule. shower and storm
potential exits to the southeast saturday night with the cold
front. highs will surge into the upper 60s/lower 70s on saturday
(warmer if the initial round of convection holds off slightly
longer). lows saturday night return to the 40s behind the front.


key message 2...
dry weather is favored for sunday and monday. an amplifying
trough is expected to approach the region on wednesday and move
through wednesday night and thursday. moisture return begins on
tuesday amid deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the
incoming trough. a developing low pressure and trailing cold
front are expected to cross late tuesday night or wednesday.
some shower/thunder potential is possible tuesday as warmer and
more humid air returns, though the greatest coverage is likely
tuesday night into wednesday. trends in qpf and the timing of
the front will be monitored for flooding/severe related hazards.
at the least, there`s decent potential for a widespread
wetting/beneficial rain. guidance currently has the front
progressing through earlier in the day wednesday which would
limit any severe threat, though given that`s still several days
out trends in the timing of the front remain possible.

key message 3...
temperatures will largely be stuck in the 50s on sunday behind
this weekend`s cold front, rebounding into the 60s to perhaps
low 70s for highs on monday and tuesday. wednesday will likely
be a transition day as the cold front moves through, with highs
on thursday near or a bit below normal, possibly staying in the
30s across parts of the area. friday likely sees temperatures
trend back up, though that appears to be short-lived with
ensembles suggesting a pattern change around mid-march.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
a band of thunderstorms are moving across the lake shore late
tonight that have been producing gusts of 20-30 knots. there`s a
low probability of impacting kcle and keri, though should stay
north of the terminals. a strong llj will move into the region
tonight as low pressure moves in the great lakes. as an
inversion sets up tonight, this llj will create llws starting
before midnight and persisting through the mid morning when
boundary layer mixing starts with daytime heating. winds will
begin gusting as well up to 30-35 knots out of the southwest
ahead of an approaching cold front.

there will be convection entering from the west and impacting
the western terminals around 15z and exiting past the eastern
terminals by 20z. the cold front is expected to move into the
region around 22z and winds will shift to be out of the west to
northwest behind. winds will shift at all terminals by 04z. in
between the convection and front there will likely be showery
rain across the region that could bring vis down to non-vfr.

outlook...non-vfr expected in low ceilings behind the cold front
on saturday night.

&&

.marine...
mobile pack ice continues to dominate lake erie with warmer
temperatures and higher dewpoints aiding in further melting. patchy
dense fog remains an issue into this evening and possibly again
during the overnight. wave heights limited by the aforementioned
mobile pack ice, which will shift around with winds increasing out
of the ssw tonight into saturday 20-35kts. thunderstorms possible
saturday as a cold front works its way across lake erie later in the
day. winds become westerly 10-20kts saturday night, returning to
southwesterly monday through tuesday 15-25kts.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 8 am est saturday for lez142>149-
162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...23
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1222 am est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...

- a round of showers and storms (80%+) tracks through later
tonight into saturday morning. a few strong to severe storms
are possible with the threats of isolated wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph and marginally severe hail.

- dry weather returns for sunday and monday, but more showers
and storms expected for tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm est fri mar 6 2026

warm front nearing the mi border will continue to lift north this
afternoon and evening with fog giving way to near record warmth and
increasingly breezy southwest winds. will have to monitor chances
(20-50%) for a few showers/storms to clip areas mainly north of the
us 24 corridor late this afternoon/evening as a subtle mid level
impulse lifts into the western great lakes and trailing outflow from
upstream convection attempts to fold east into the lower great
lakes. overall forcing is weak, but ramping background flow and up
to 1000 j/kg of mlcape continues to hint at the low chance (marginal
svr risk / 5%) for an isolated strong-to-severe storm. somewhat
breezy and unseasonably mild the story otherwise into much of the
overnight with temperatures generally holding in the low-mid 60s.

better prospects for a round of showers and storms arrives later
tonight into saturday morning from west to east as the main upper
level trough lifts northeast toward the western/northern great lakes
sending a pre-frontal trough and moisture axis through. a
convectively induced shortwave could also enhance rain/thunder
coverage during this time, though expectations are for this incoming
convection to come through in a weakened state due to outpacing
stronger upper level support and unfavorable diurnal timing. with
that said, still cannot rule out a marginally strong to severe storm
given the pre-frontal 60f dewpoint air and strong background flow.
saturday afternoon will then feature the passage of the system cold
front with breezy/mild conditions and the chance (30-40%) for
renewed shower/iso storm development along the front. air mass will
likely be pretty worked over with limited instability for the cold
front limiting coverage and the severe threat.

sunday into much of next week will feature a transition to quasi-
zonal flow with several strong upper level jet streaks traversing
the northern tier of the lower 48. sunday and monday are a couple of
dry days with temps likely recovering up to near 70f early next
week. ensemble and deterministic model solutions then continue to
point to later tuesday into wednesday morning for the next good
chance for a period of rain and embedded thunder as buckle in the
jet sends a decent frontal wave through. cooler, yet still above
normal, weather then to follow behind this system for the second half
of the week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 1219 am est sat mar 7 2026

we are watching ongoing convection out of iowa and missouri
that is expected to lift north and move into northern indiana by
daybreak. for now, conditions remain dry and quiet with
variable winds. winds will become increasingly gusty out of the
south over the next several hours again with gusts as high as 25
kts possible. the best chances for mvfr ceilings and
visibilities with showers and storms will be between 10-13z at
ksbn and 11-14z at kfwa. showers and storms will most impactful
this morning, although there may be a brief resurgence this
afternoon with an incoming cold front between 18-22z. confidence
is lower on this afternoon round so have left those chances
mainly in prob30 groups for both terminals. winds diminish after
sunset tonight and shift to be coming from the west.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1250 am est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...


- showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning into
early afternoon. there is a low risk of severe weather with these
storms.

- warm and windy with southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph today.

- above average temperatures are expected through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

southwest winds have largely scattered out the persistent low clouds
from earlier and will bring a period of vfr conditions for the early
morning hours. llws concerns remain into tonight with weak surface
winds and strong low level jet aloft, though gusty winds will
eventually pick up ahead of the inbound cold front. next round of
showers and thunderstorms arrives after 12z this ahead of said cold
front. line of showers/thunderstorms will move into mbs around 13z
and spread across the remaining terminals throughout the morning
bringing likely mvfr conditions with ifr possible at times as the
system rolls through. winds become gusty out of the southwest at 30
to 35 knots by mid-morning as better mixing develops. line of
convection moves east early this afternoon with gusty west winds to
around 25 knots through the rest of this afternoon tomorrow as mvfr
ceilings look to hold through bulk of the day.

for dtw... low clouds have mostly cleared out with a few lingering
showers over the next couple of hours. stronger thunderstorm
potential will begin around 14-15z this and clearing east early
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight. high this
morning and afternoon.

* moderate for thunderstorms at dtw mid-morning to early afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 242 pm est fri mar 6 2026

discussion...

the cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms now advancing across
the saginaw valley are tied to a mid level short wave impulse along
the leading edge of a plume of elevated instability. a stronger wave
tracking into central lake michigan this afternoon will track across
nrn lower mi this evening. the trailing moist axis combined with the
advection of weak elevated inability ongoing across srn mi will
support additional convective development this evening. a strong warm
front positioned along the mi/oh border will slowly be drawn
northward during the night under increasing southerly flow preceding
a surface wave lifting across the western great lakes. the warm
sector south this boundary is characterized by sfc temps in the 70s
and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. weak sfc based cape within this
warm sector will attempt to push into lenawee/washtenaw counties this
evening prior to nocturnal cooling, at least increasing the risk of
a severe storm given the strong wind fields. otherwise, evening
convection will largely be elevated atop a very stable boundary
layer, suggestive of hail as the main severe weather concern. with
upper 50/lower 60 degree sfc dewpoints advecting into se mi along the
warm front, areas of dense fog are likely to persist prior to the
arrival of the warm sector, especially within the lake erie/st clair
marine layer. the northward advancing warm front will also lead to
rising temps during the night.

an approaching upper level trough axis will drive an associated cold
front across se mi late saturday afternoon. there is strong
agreement among hi res guidance and ensemble members indicating lead
short wave features driving another round of convective saturday
morning. the coverage and duration of this will determine severe
convective chances and wind gust potential later in the day. ample
warm moist air will remain in place in advance of the cold front,
easily supporting highs in the 60s. a strongly sheared environment
will remain in place. at this point, it is questionable at to
whether there will be enough surface based instability to balance
the shear, especially if early day convection becomes a little more
widespread. for this reason, most of se mi remains in a marginal
risk for severe wx. daytime mixing potential will also support windy
conditions. available probabilistic guidance suggests enough
uncertainty as to whether mixing depths adequately reach into the 40-
45 knot low level wind fields to hold off on advisory criteria wind
gusts attm.

respectable yet shallow post frontal cold air advection will drive
temps into the 30s sun night. rebounding mid level heights and
steady warm air advection within west-southwest winds will result in
a steady warming trend sunday into monday under dry conditions.
highs in the 60s look highly probably on monday, with some ensemble
members still indicating a few locals reaching 70.

marine...

ongoing progression of a warm front across the great lakes will
continue to advect in higher surface moisture and given ongoing
dense fog across lake erie and lake st clair and factoring in
expanding moisture, have opted to expand the marine dense fog
advisory across all of lake huron and the saginaw bay and extend the
ongoing advisory for locations south. some improvement with
visibilities will be possible with any rain showers, however,
widespread improvement to conditions will be more likely with the
passage of a cold front which will move across the great lakes
through tomorrow afternoon.

widespread rain showers with a low chance for some embedded
thunderstorms will move in this evening across lake huron. a lull in
activity overnight, with a second round of rain showers and
thunderstorms chances expected through tomorrow morning ahead and
along the cold front. there will be a low-end chance for gusts to
reach gales along and immediately behind the cold front tomorrow
afternoon, but given the brevity for gale potential, will preclude
and issuance of gale products. any stronger thunderstorms will have
the capability to produce gusts in excess of 34 knots.

some additional low end chances for gust to gales will be possible
sunday morning and afternoon, but a near neutral thermal profiles
brings low confidence if stronger winds aloft will make it to the
surface. a strong warm front then pushes through monday morning,
which will bring breezy southwest flow with gusts around 30 knots.

hydrology...

probabilities show two time periods with the greatest/more
widespread rain potential; this evening and then again saturday
morning. 12-hour rain totals are most likely to fall into the one
quarter to three quarters inch range. some totals up to an inch are
possible across the saginaw valley and thumb regions. while this
will result in rises on area rivers, no flooding is forecast.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz361>363-421-
422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...dense fog advisory until 4 am est early this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense fog advisory until 4 am est early this morning for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......am
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.