Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
844
fxus61 kcle 120458
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1158 pm est wed feb 11 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast. a more
prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this
weekend into next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily light snow showers will persist across portions of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania into thursday night
with minimal impacts expected.

2) a more prolonged period of above average temperatures will
return this weekend and continue into next week.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

regional satellite and radar observations reveal mid-level
moisture returning across the region, resulting in drizzle
transitioning back to generally light snow showers across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the 850
mb air mass will gradually become colder over the next 12 hours,
dropping from about -10 degrees c this afternoon to near -15
degrees c by early thursday morning.

although lake erie remains ice covered, lake-induced moisture
from lake huron should allow snow showers to persist across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through
much of thursday. at least initially, poor moisture within the
dgz should largely limit efficient snow processes into this
evening. as the air mass cools overnight, dgz moisture will
increase, particularly across inland northwest pennsylvania
where 1 to 2 inches of snow could fall by thursday morning.
otherwise, generally limited accumulations are expected as
temperatures remain rather marginal amidst weak snowfall rates.

.key message 2...
above average temperatures are poised to return by saturday as a
large upper-level ridge begins to take shape across much of the
central and eastern conus. this upper-level ridge will likely
remain in place into tuesday, though may begin to briefly break
down as a strong trough approaches the midwest by wednesday.

in terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid-40s for the
weekend will increase further into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
early next week. minimal precipitation is expected through
tuesday which does bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on
area rivers and a melting snowpack.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
conditions have trended toward more vfr cigs this morning across
nw and north central ohio as drier air looks to win out, so
pulled back on the mvfr at ktol, kfdy, kmfd, and kcle. there
could still be periods of mvfr at kmfd and kcle from mid morning
into the afternoon, especially at kmfd, but confidence has
decreased. mvfr still looks to dominate farther east at kcak,
kyng, and keri where deeper moisture and light lake-effect snow
showers will continue this morning. the snow showers will
persist into the afternoon at keri before finally ending, but
the cigs will be slower to improve.

nw winds will diminish to 5-10 knots early this morning, with
nw winds then continuing to average 5-10 knots through the day.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain on sunday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered. west-northwest winds of around
15 to 20 knots will gradually diminish to less than 10 knots by
thursday night as high pressure to our west gradually builds in and
becomes centered over the area. high pressure departs to the east on
friday, allowing southwest winds of around 15 knots to develop.
there are a few models that depict stronger winds of 20 to 25 knots,
which could increase the risk of cracks developing in the ice on
lake erie and shifting northeastward away from the shoreline. winds
generally weaken over the weekend, with westerly flow on saturday
changing over to easterly flow on sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
985
fxus63 kiwx 120644
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
144 am est thu feb 12 2026

.key messages...

- patchy fog this morning along with increasing clouds today.

- there is a 20-30% chance of rain saturday night through
sunday, primarily south of us 30.

- trending warmer this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 143 am est thu feb 12 2026

high pressure centered over illinois will provide tranquil
conditions today. the primary near-term forecast challenges are
patchy fog early this morning and forecast highs this afternoon.
so far fog has been confined to the far northwest forecast
zones where northwest flow off the lake may be enhancing low-
level moisture profiles. sites further inland have had instances
of similarly small dew point depressions (2f) but no fog
reports so far. forecast soundings do depict a subsidence
inversion which will trap any low-level moisture flux. overall,
do not expect widespread fog this morning as it will be confined
to areas such as la porte, south bend, and even plymouth, in.

high clouds slowly stream in today as low pressure moves over
the great basin. 850mb temperatures (and 500mb heights) will be
slightly warmer (higher) than yesterday while morning lows are
certainly colder. model guidance has struggled these past couple
of days with the pattern change, thus, have increased
temperatures today to nearly match those of wednesday.

no sensible weather concerns until saturday night where southern
portions of the forecast area have a 20-30% chance of rain that
lingers into sunday. the trough responsible for the anticipated
surface low will continue to work its way inland today, while
also within the time frame of medium-range guidance bolstering
forecast confidence. the in- house blend jives well with
available deterministic and ensemble guidance in its southern-
cwa solution, offering about a 40% chance of measurable (>=0.01")
rainfall. given recent/ongoing snow melt and heavy rain
elsewhere in the state, the local flood concern appears minimal
at this time.

notably warmer friday and into next week as upper-level ridging
takes shape. high temperatures in the 50s to near 60 remain on
the table and are among the 25th percentile of model guidance
(e.g., 75% chance that high temperature may be warmer than
currently advertised). an active northern stream jet presents an
increasing chance for rain by the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1245 am est thu feb 12 2026

northern indiana remains in the inflection zone of a western
conus longwave ridge and western atlantic troughing pattern.
this will keep the influence of a broad low level anticyclone in
place across the great lakes and ohio valley today. this ridge
will provide light winds through much of this forecast period.
given this light wind regime, cannot completely rule out some
patchy radiational fog at terminals this morning, but confidence
at terminals is too low to include at this time.

mid/upper level water vapor imagery early this morning depicts
a sheared vort max tracking across the great lakes which could
allow for minor episode of low level caa across eastern lower
michigan this morning with perhaps some diurnally enhanced
westward development of some 2000-3500 ft cu this afternoon. in
addition, a broad 850mb theta-e gradient will be shifting east
into northern indiana this afternoon due to the slight eastward
displacement of the low level ridge axis. this could yield sct-
bkn vfr clouds in the 5-6k ft layer. given the above will
maintain vfr forecast with just a mention of some few-sct mvfr
clouds this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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578
fxus63 kdtx 120454
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1154 pm est wed feb 11 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry with near average temperatures through tomorrow.

- slight warm-up friday through this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

gradual mid level warming across central lake michigan bringing an
end to meaningful moisture flux at the moment, allowing an eastward
propagating clearing line to push downstream overnight. existing
stratus still encompassing southeast michigan will persist into the
early morning hours, but with latest trends now suggesting greater
potential for a period of lower cloud coverage late tonight. higher
confidence for some clearing across the detroit corridor. areas from
ptk northward may continue to witness areas of stratus as northwest
flow directs additional moisture southeast. forecast will continue
to highlight some renewed expansion of stratus/stratocu with daytime
heating early thursday, before scattering during the latter half of
the day. cloud base will remain within the 2500 to 3500 ft range
through the period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less during the early morning hours.
medium late tonight and thursday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 314 pm est wed feb 11 2026

discussion...

an upper trough resides across eastern canada extending into the
northeast conus while a shortwave ridge and surface high pressure
move across the midwest. this setup will allow northwest winds to
persist into tonight, which will maintain a steady stream of lake
effect clouds. a few isolated flurries remain possible into early
evening with the cloud layer hovering around -12c. a few 9-10sm snow
observations have been noted this afternoon. lower level winds
decrease into the evening and less favorable mixing will ease any
gust potential over the course of the evening.

surface high pressure centers over the central great lakes tomorrow,
though the back side of the thermal trough still lingers. this will
keep daytime highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. the high pressure
will bring dry conditions with greater breaks in the clouds. friday
will see the high pressure ridge pass to the east and greater s-sw
lower level flow ushering in a slightly warmer airmass. this should
boost daytime highs to around 40 degrees for friday.

split flow will be over the region heading into the weekend with
weak mid-level height rises. chances remain low to see precipitation
over the weekend as a northern stream wave and southern stream wave
maintain enough separation for only minor phasing, if any, that
would occur over michigan. the southern stream low pressure center
will be moving across the southern gulf states with the northern
edge of associated precipitation up through the ohio valley. broader
qpf solutions bring less than 20% chance of rain to the southern
border sunday morning while activity with northern stream wave stays
focused north of lake huron. thus, it looks like the entire area is
more likely to stay dry for the weekend. only subtle changes to the
airmass will keep daily highs around 40 degrees and morning lows in
the 20s.

stronger surface high pressure moves back into the region as the
central conus ridge begins to drift over the midwest early next week.
this will keep the ongoing dry and above normal temperatures into
monday and tuesday. daytime highs by tuesday may be up to mid 40s.
best ensemble support for next chance of precipitation arrives mid
next week.

marine...

cold northwest flow persists across the central great lakes this
afternoon and evening, gradually decreasing in magnitude overnight
into thursday. high pressure passes across the western great lakes
thursday before shifting into the ohio valley on friday as a clipper
system tracks near northern lake huron. this system will bring an
uptick of southwest winds on friday with gusts up to 25 kt in the
afternoon. high pressure then passes over the region saturday and
sunday with lighter winds. a weak cold front may pass through late
sunday, but mainly dry conditions are favored into early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.