Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
928
fxus61 kcle 161937
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
337 pm edt thu jul 16 2026

.what has changed...
significant wildfire smoke is expected to continue through
friday, and this will keep high temperatures several degrees
cooler than the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) wildfire smoke will produce poor air quality and reduce
visibilities through friday.

2) periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected friday
afternoon through saturday and again tuesday into wednesday.
the storms saturday afternoon and evening could be severe.

3) very warm temperatures will persist through saturday before
cooler weather arrives sunday through next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
today has been an incredibly rare day across northern ohio and
northwest pa as dense wildfire smoke continues to funnel across
the region, originating from hundreds of active fires burning in
nw ontario province. mid afternoon visibilities are averaging
0.5 to 1 mile, with the worst visibilities near lake erie and
across northeast ohio and northwest pa. the mid/upper ridge
currently elongated from the corn belt through the tennessee
valley will remain largely in place through friday to the west
of mid/upper longwave troughing over eastern canada and new
england. the associated nw flow aloft will keep the smoke plume
funneling into our area through friday. the latest hrrr smoke
plume forecast shows similar conditions to today for much of
friday, so expect another day of poor visibilities and air
quality. additionally, the smoke kept temperatures a solid 5
degrees cooler than forecasted this afternoon, and expect a
similar outcome friday, so lowered high temperatures to
generally be mid/upper 80s.

a warm front will lift across the region friday evening through
friday night in response to a strong mid/upper shortwave
progressing into the upper midwest and northern great lakes.
this will turn the low-level flow southerly and start to scour
out the smoke, so expect slow improvement friday night.

key message 2...
a major pattern change will take place this weekend as the
mid/upper longwave trough over eastern canada and new england
deepens into the great lakes and retrogrades the large mid/upper
ridge back into the plains and intermountain west. this trough
will be deepened in part by a strong shortwave dropping from the
upper midwest and northern great lakes friday night through the
southern and eastern great lakes by saturday night. this system
will have plenty of dynamics when combined with the heat and
humidity to support severe weather.

a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the ohio valley friday
will retreat northeastward across the region friday evening and
friday night in response to the approaching shortwave trough.
this will usher the 70 plus degree dew points back into the
area. strong warm/moist/theta e advection on the nose of a 30
knot west-southwest low-level jet will generate scattered
convection late friday afternoon through friday night from west
to east along and ahead of the warm front, where isentropic
ascent will be maximized. generally do not expect severe weather
with this round due to limited shear, but enough instability
will be in place where a few stronger storms with gusty winds
and small hail cannot be ruled out.

any lingering showers should quickly move out saturday morning
as the region becomes entrenched in the warm sector. this will
set up a hot and humid day and allow for at least moderate
instability ahead of the shortwave and associated strong cold
front. depending on any lingering smoke or convective debris
cloudiness, surface based cape could push 3000 j/kg in the
afternoon, and this combined with deep layer shear increasing to
30 to 35 knots will support organized severe convection. timing
wise, it looks like convective temps will be reached by 19z to
allow for scattered cells to begin developing, and then a broken
line or qlcs could drop across lake erie and much of northern
ohio and nw pa during the evening ahead of the cold front. this
timing and evolution is supported by the latest runs of the href
and rrfs. the wind profile looks to be unidirectional, and with
shear vectors oriented nw to se (normal to the line of
convection), there could be surges and bows to enhance the wind
risk. low-level srh is unimpressive, but cannot rule out a brief
spin up qlcs tornado given the potential for surges/bows in the
line. the latest swody3 slight risk continues to look good,
with the primary hazard being damaging winds.

rapid drying is expected behind the front saturday night, with
dry conditions sunday and monday as canadian high pressure
builds across the great lakes. however, the mid/upper longwave
trough over the eastern conus/great lakes will continue to
deepen through mid week as a couple of shortwaves drop through
it, and expect another cold frontal passage tuesday into
wednesday. this will bring the next potential for showers and
thunderstorms.

key message 3...
very warm temperatures will continue friday with highs in the
mid/upper 80s, although these will be muted by the smoke and
lower dew points. saturday will be the most unpleasant as the
humidity surges back in and temperatures warm into the upper 80s
to low 90s. this will support heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100 again. the deepening trough sunday through mid next
week will bring much cooler, more pleasant weather, with highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s, which will be
below normal for mid july.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
poor aviation conditions continue across the region with reduced
visibilites due to wildfire smoke moving southeast from canada.
widespread ifr visibility, with patchy lifr, is anticipated to
continue through tonight and into early friday morning. expect
near-surface smoke to slowly improve from southwest to northeast
friday into saturday. still some uncertainty when the smoke
will dissipate but expect mvfr visibilities to linger across
central and eastern taf sites. have the highest confidence in
vfr returning on friday at western terminals.

northerly to northwesterly winds 5-10 knots this afternoon and
evening will become light and variable overnight tonight. winds
will begin to favor a southerly component by the end of the taf
window.

outlook...non-vfr visibility through friday due to canadian
wildfire smoke. non-vfr likely friday night through saturday
night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
generally northerly winds 5-10 knots over lake erie will become
light and variable overnight tonight. have extended the dense
smoke advisory for all lake erie zones through 4 am friday. the
advisory may need to be further extended in time with future
shifts as canadian wildfire smoke lingers.

a warm front will lift east across the lake friday night into
saturday leading to southwesterly winds increasing to 10-20
knots and wave heights building to 1-3 feet across the open
waters. a cold front will cross south on saturday which will
turn elevated winds northwesterly and allow for wave heights in
nearshore zones to build to 2-4 feet. high pressure builds
overhead sunday into monday allowing for northerly winds to
decrease to 10 knots or less while gradually turning
southeasterly. another cold front will push across lake erie on
tuesday likely leading to a window of elevated wind speeds and
wave heights tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...dense smoke advisory until 4 am edt friday for lez142>149-
162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 161807
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
207 pm edt thu jul 16 2026

.key messages...

- air quality alerts continue today and into friday, in part
due to smoky conditions.

- increasing chance (30% to 70%) for showers and thunderstorms
by friday afternoon. storms may produce heavy rain.

- thunderstorms on saturday afternoon may produce damaging wind
gusts.

- not as warm starting sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 204 pm edt thu jul 16 2026

surface high pressure beneath a subtle sag in northwesterly flow
aloft has ushered in plenty of wildfire smoke over our area. based
on surface visibility observations, near-surface smoke has been most
prevalent north of us 30, especially along the southern michigan
state line. there, visibility has been below 2 miles most of
today, with instances of 1 mile visibility. this has also
notably limited temperatures today. within the heat advisory,
some upper-80s are noted with heat indicies in the mid-90s. as
we approach peak- heating, we`ll keep the (marginal) heat
advisory in place for now. available forecast guidance
indicates these smoky conditions may spread further south
tonight and remain in place after sunrise friday. however,
conditions may improve as the day progresses as surface high
pressure drifts east in response to an incoming upper great
lakes trough and an advancing warm front.

look for increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon as a warm front advances from the southwest. shear will be
incredibly limited (less than 20 knots) keeping the severe
weather risk in check. in contrast, due to an overall absence
of upper-level flow, slow-moving storms may produce heavy
rainfall as pwats push 2 inches by the afternoon.

a marginal to slight risk of severe storms is highlighted by the
storm prediction center for saturday. a well-organized upper-
level low sweeps through wisconsin and michigan amid an
environment with plenty of instability (>1,500 j/kg) and only
marginal shear shy of 30 knots. guidance generally suggests
discrete storms along a cold front may mature into linear
segments, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts.

high pressure briefly settles in sunday and monday bringing cooler
and less humid conditions. energetic northwest flow spills over the
great lakes by midweek presenting renewed chances for wet weather
while keeping afternoon high temperatures near-normal (mid-80s)
or just a few degrees shy of normal.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 200 pm edt thu jul 16 2026

deteriorating conditions have been noted at terminals through
early this afternoon, particularly at ksbn which has
transitioned to ifr vsbys in smoke from canadian wildfires.
forecast confidence in vsby trends is on the low side, although
concern that is that at least mvfr vsbys will linger through
much of this taf period. the possibility exists for some
improvement at ksbn late afternoon/early evening to mvfr, but
would expect some early morning friday deterioration with
smoke/br combination. a short wave trough approaching from the
west will allow a weak boundary across north central il/west
central in to retreat northeast as a warm frontal feature on
friday. this should tend to help improve sfc vsbys toward end of
this forecast valid period, but will result in increased risk
of scattered showers and thunderstorms friday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ friday night
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-104-116-
204-216.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for inz013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt friday
night for inz020.
air quality alert until midnight cdt friday night for inz103-
203.
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt friday night for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...dense smoke advisory until 8 pm edt friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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669
fxus63 kdtx 161955
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
355 pm edt thu jul 16 2026

.key messages...

- the air quality alert remains in effect for the rest of today
through friday due to persistence of wildfire smoke causing
hazardous air quality.


- improvement of smoke concentration begins friday night as wind
shifts sw after passage of a warm front.

- thunderstorm potential increases with scattered coverage friday and
friday night. severe intensity is not expected.

- there is a marginal risk of severe intensity thunderstorms as
coverage becomes numerous saturday afternoon and evening.

- dry weather with cooler temperatures and lower humidity moves in
by sunday.

&&

.discussion...

afternoon goes west and recently restored goes east satellite
imagery show the expansive plume of forest fire smoke extending from
the mn/ontario border, over the great lakes, and into the mid
atlantic states. the plume is fortified by stable high pressure
similarly aligned which is only allowing incremental visibility
improvement as a proxy for density/concentration. boundary layer
mixing is clearly also limited by the cooling effect of the smoke on
daytime heating that is limiting temperatures to the lower and mid
80s most locations. nocturnal surface layer stabilization after
sunset combines with just a slow eastward drift of high pressure to
maintain similar smoke density tonight and friday morning.

the next low pressure system, organizing in the northern plains
tonight, moves into the upper midwest friday. it offers an
opportunity for smoke improvement over lower mi but not until friday
night as the surface warm front approaches from the mid ms/oh
valleys. until then, href and refs mean qpf projects convection
along and west of the warm front friday afternoon which matches up
well with hi-res versions of the nam and rap. this timing has sub-
severe thunderstorms moving from the west toward se mi with isolated
to scattered coverage late in the day and friday evening. the warm
front then moves sw to ne to help displace the smokey air mass into
ontario late friday night.

the warm front moves into ontario as low pressure reaches just north
of the straits by saturday morning. there is good model agreement on
this solution which places nocturnal/elevated convection mainly over
the northern great lakes and northern ontario friday night, and
places se mi in the warm sector of the system through saturday
morning. the trailing cold front is strongly supported for this time
of year by the parent mid level short wave tracking over the
northern great lakes, enough to maintain a band of showers and
thunderstorms along the front friday night and saturday morning as
the front moves through northern lower mi. refs mean surface based
cape is in the 1000-2000 j/kg range as the front enters central and
se mi during the morning rising to around 2500 j/kg saturday
afternoon. the broad instability axis combines with the southern
fringe of faster flow aloft to set up a respectable storm
environment. model forecasts of 0-6 km bulk shear averaging 30 knots
presents an opportunity for organized thunderstorms saturday
afternoon until the front exits into ontario and ohio saturday
evening. spc maintains a marginal risk for severe storms in se mi in
the day 3 update and this looks solid.

passage of the cold front saturday evening ushers in dry weather
with cooler and less humid conditions sunday into early next week.
extended range global models project a prolonged period of mid level
trough development from hudson bay into southern ontario. low
pressure systems track through this long wave pattern and reinforce
cooler air across lower mi during the early to mid week period. this
results in temperatures closer to, or even below normal, with lower
potential for thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...

dense smoke due to canadian wildfires persists across the entire
central great lakes today and into tomorrow. this supports the
continuation of a dense smoke advisory until 4 am friday for
visibilities aob 1 nm. additional extensions in time may still be
needed. weak high pressure influence over the central great lakes
maintains light north-northwest winds through this afternoon,
although speeds may approach 20 knots over the northern half of lake
huron where the pressure gradient is more constricted. weak low
pressures systems emerge over the northern plains and mid-
mississippi valley tonight, eventually converging over the great
lakes with time on friday. this leads to more active weather with
periods of showers and thunderstorms arriving later in the day.
prevailing winds should generally remain below headline criteria
through the forecast period, with one exception being marginal small
craft advisory gusts over saginaw bay and/or the thumb nearshores
saturday afternoon. this arises within the wake of a cold front
associated with a secondary, and more robust, low pressure system
passing through the straits on saturday. high pressure builds back
into the region late saturday and sunday supporting drier conditions.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 130 pm edt thu jul 16 2026

aviation...

smoke remains entrenched across the region today and tonight with
only minimal improvements to current conditions expected. smoke
thickness has limited the effects of diurnal mixing with most sites
still mvfr cigs with lifr vsbys early this afternoon. given the lack
of improvement thus far, went pessimistic with potential improvement
to low vfr cigs/ifr vsbys. would expect a regression in conditions
again overnight as smoke is aids in generating areas of fog to mix
in.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today.

* moderate for vsbys below 1/2sm early this afternoon, low by late
afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...dense smoke advisory until 4 am edt friday for lhz361>363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...dense smoke advisory until 4 am edt friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense smoke advisory until 4 am edt friday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......kgk
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.