Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
651
fxus61 kcle 221942
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
342 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers continue to exit through this evening, leaving a
period of dry and pleasant weather through wednesday.

2) potential for showers and thunderstorms returns wednesday
night into thursday ahead of a cold front.

3) intermittent potential for rain this weekend into early next
week, with a gradual warming trend beginning on sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
weak low pressure over the upper ohio valley this afternoon will
transfer to off the mid atlantic coast tonight into tuesday,
with high pressure building into the great lakes for tuesday and
wednesday. we will continue to gradually dry out through this
evening, though may not see significant clearing until later
tonight into early tuesday from west to east. tuesday and
wednesday will be dry and pleasant, though with potential for
some radiation fog tuesday night into early wednesday.

key message 2...
a low amplitude shortwave trough and associated weak low
pressure will track through the great lakes wednesday night
and thursday. this will lift a warm front across the local area
late wednesday night/early thursday, followed quickly by a cold
front thursday afternoon and evening.

potential for showers and perhaps a bit of thunder spread in
from the west wednesday night ahead of the approaching warm
front. there will be some support in the form of the exit region
of an incoming jet streak and modest low to mid-level warm air
advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with a bit
of elevated instability trying to advect in from the west. so,
not expecting a particularly widespread or heavy rain wednesday
night or early thursday but there`s enough to have a chance
mentioned. the cold front is favored to cross thursday
afternoon or early evening. models exhibit some disagreement
regarding the exact timing of the frontal passage and amount of
forcing for ascent with the shortwave passing just to our north
on thursday and exiting to the east later in the day. however,
the frontal timing during peak heating hours supports another
round of at least scattered showers and storms from roughly
sandusky to marion points east thursday afternoon and early
evening. mid-level lapse rates will likely be modest, though
sufficient heating could allow moderate instability to develop
with moderate deep-layer shear. overall, we are eying thursday
afternoon and evening for another round of at least scattered
convection across parts of our area. some potential for severe
weather may pan out, especially if the front is slow enough to
allow for convection to develop and begin maturing across
central and eastern portions of our area.

key message 3...
thursday`s front will likely settle into the ohio valley by
friday morning, and will waiver just to our south through the
weekend and early next week. while high pressure over the
northeast will try to keep us rain-free, waves tracking along
the front may lift it back far enough north at times to bring
rain potential, especially farther south across our area.
ridging aloft gradually starts building from the central and
into the eastern u.s. by early next week, signaling what should
be a gradual but more prolonged warming trend.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
mixed-bag of mvfr and ifr across the taf sites this afternoon,
mainly associated with low ceilings, though some lower vsbys
will remain possible in rain showers over the next couple of
hours, primarily east of the i-71 corridor. can`t rule out a few
rumbles of thunder, but the overall chances are low. otherwise,
ceilings will gradually lift to vfr through this evening from
west to east. attention then turns towards tonight into tuesday
morning, particularly along and east of the i-77 corridor where
an area of ifr ceilings and mist/fog will develop. a few pockets
of lifr ceilings cannot be ruled out, especially at cak/yng/eri
and may be added in future taf updates. conditions will
gradually improve to vfr through tuesday morning.

winds are generally out of the north to northeast this
afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. winds will remain out of the north to
northeast through the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday night into thursday, and again on friday night into
saturday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions continue across the central and eastern
basin of lake erie into this evening, with waves remaining in
the 3 to 4-foot range and thus will keep the current headlines
in place. marine conditions will gradually improve through this
evening as north to northeast winds subside to around 10 knots
overnight. for the week ahead, generally quiet marine conditions
are expected with periods of light, onshore flow of 10 knots or
less expected through wednesday. winds will briefly become
south to southwest on thursday, 10 to 15 knots, before shifting
back to the northwest behind a cold front on friday, around 10
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
ohz010>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
150
fxus63 kiwx 221830
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
230 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

.key messages...

- large waves and dangerous currents are expected on southern
lake michigan beaches today. those visiting the beach are
advised to stay out of the water and away from piers.

- another round of rain is expected late wed into thu and a few
thunderstorms are possible. severe weather is not expected at
this time.

- temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the week
and will be above normal by sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

a dynamic low pressure system exiting the region is resulting in
improving conditions across the area. northerly winds wrapping
around the backside of the departing low will allow cooler,
drier air to filter into the region, keeping temperatures below
normal for the next few days. skies will clear from west to east
this evening, and good radiational cooling will bring overnight
lows in the low to mid 50s. tuesday will be mild with highs in
the mid 70s.

the low-level flow shifts to the southwest again on wednesday,
and warm air advection ahead of the next weather system will
facilitate highs in the upper 70s. showers and storms return
wednesday evening, but with only marginal shear and instability,
severe weather is not expected, although brief heavy downpours
are possible. scattered showers will remain possible thursday
through saturday as a series of shortwaves move through the
region. high pressure builds back into the midwest on sunday and
monday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 113 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

broken to overcast skies persist on the backside of the
departing low, causing mvfr conditions at the terminals.
ceilings should start to lift to vfr around 20z as drier air
advects in from the north. breezy north to northeast winds will
continue through the evening then become light overnight. skies
will also clear overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through late tonight for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
700
fxus63 kdtx 221901
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
301 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather expected tonight and tuesday.

- slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue through mid to
late week.

- the next chance of rain arrives wednesday evening and lingers into
thursday.

- warming temperatures this weekend with additional rain chances.

&&

.discussion...

low pressure peels away from the ohio valley toward the east coast
this evening, drawing the deeper column moisture along with it. this
has led to a gradual decrease in cloud cover from north to south,
although northeast flow off of lake huron maintains a healthy cover
of diurnal cumulus through the early evening. waning cyclonic
influence and inbound surface high pressure cause winds to back
northerly tonight, which helps shut off the lake influence in favor
of mostly clear skies overnight.

pair of pv anomalies over canada and ridging over sw conus govern
the height field through most of the week, maintaining a broad
longwave troughing pattern and seasonably cool conditions with
daytime highs in the mid-upper 70s. highest confidence in dry
weather is tuesday as pwat values drop to 0.6" with a deep layer of
static stability in the lowest 15.0 kft. main item of uncertainty
for tuesday is cloud cover, which may come in the form of high cloud
advecting in from the dakotas and/or a scattered boundary layer cu
field. mixture of sun and filtered sunshine thus expected for
tuesday.

trailing pv anomaly currently over saskatchewan reaches the
international border wednesday morning, leading to top-down theta-e
advection into lower michigan during the day. cloud cover thus
expected to increase, especially in the afternoon and evening.
remnant anticyclonic influence keeps much of the detroit area dry
through the daylight hours wednesday, with the best shot at earlier
rain chances for the saginaw valley/thumb on the nose of the upper
level jet streak. forecast soundings depict disjointed column
moisture through most of wednesday night, as moisture transport will
likely be disrupted to some degree by widespread convection over
southern conus. highest pops are thus anchored to the passage of the
cold front itself between 00z and 12z thursday. thunderstorms are in
play with this activity, although soundings are not particularly
impressive from a convective standpoint as lapse rates only briefly
peak around 6.5 c/km which caps mucape ~500 j/kg. in general most
areas see up to a couple tenths of an inch of qpf, although some
higher outliers exist mainly in solutions that bring the occluding
low directly overhead. lingering showers/a few thunderstorms
possible into thursday afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes
and the low stalls over lake huron.

drier conditions return for friday as surface high pressure and mid-
level ridging briefly build into the great lakes. still several
upstream shortwaves on deck, forming the next opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend. meanwhile, an anomalous low
arrives onshore the pacific northwest this weekend with decent
agreement in its timing between ensemble members and cluster
analysis. there are some differences in how deep it carves across
western conus, which will then impact downstream ridge amplification
over the eastern half of the country. while this generally signals a
warm up early next week, the magnitude of the warm up is uncertain.

&&

.marine...

as the upper ohio valley system continues to move east, the wind
really isn`t up enough to keep the sca for lake erie and will cancel
that early. the northeast wind will increase more than it is going
at 18z, specifically around 03z to 07z overnight, but not enough to
keep the sca. wind direction will continue to back north to
northwest in the wake of the low through the early week period as
high pressure builds in. lighter winds are expected tomorrow and
wednesday. winds will then increase to around 10 knots from the
south and southwest late wednesday and into thursday ahead of the
next low pressure and frontal system.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1250 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

aviation...

remnant mvfr clouds continue across the detroit airspace. farther
north, drying near the surface has resulted in a reduced coverage
vfr cumulus field. continued drying across the airspace will occur
as the boundary layer continues to grow and more aggressive mixing
takes shape. northerly winds will increase as a result - and
contain a modest gust component - while the clouds continue to thin
and fade. very quiet conditions will establish tonight into tuesday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected tonight and tuesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft early this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......rbp
aviation.....mann


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.