Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
852
fxus61 kcle 301617
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1217 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

...18z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
there were no changes needed with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will allow for quiet and near-normal
temperatures into this weekend.

2) scattered periods of showers are expected next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a departing cold front early this morning will allow for high
pressure to build southeast across the area today. a few light
showers are possible across far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania early this morning before dry conditions and near-
normal temperatures return today. highs today will be a bit cooler
than recent days with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly
sunny skies. on saturday, highs will be in the low 60s with
increasing cloud cover expected. overnight lows tonight will be the
coldest in northwest pennsylvania with temperatures falling into the
low to mid 30s, but elsewhere will remain in the 40s. lows on
saturday night will be milder, falling into the mid to upper 40s.

key message 2...
as the aforementioned high pressure drifts towards the mid-atlantic
coast on sunday, a weak warm front will lift north across the area
bringing the potential for isolated, light rain showers. the
associated low pressure and upper level trough are expected to
slowly build east into the region through midweek, increasing
the potential for showers mid to late week. overall confidence
in the best timing for showers is low given model divergence in
the progression of the system as the dominant ridging pattern
recently observed slowly becomes progressive. temperatures
through the period will continue to remain above normal with
high peaking on tuesday and wednesday when temperatures climb
into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through tuesday/...
for the most part, vfr ceilings will continue through this taf
period. eri may have some mvfr ceilings this afternoon. winds
will start out from the north 5 to 10 knots becoming easterly
tonight into saturday.

outlook...apart from low rain chances monday into tuesday,
mainly vfr expected through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
this morning, a weak cold front will continue to depart to the east,
leaving elevated northwest winds behind the boundary across the
central basin of lake erie. onshore winds of 15-20 knots are
forecast allowing waves to build to 3-5 feet from vermilion to
conneaut oh. as a result, a small craft advisory has been issued for
these nearshore waters through 10z this morning.

behind this departing boundary, high pressure will begin to build
southeast across lake erie which will allow winds to weaken to 5-10
knots and slowly a more easterly component into saturday. on sunday,
a weak warm front will lift north allowing for winds to become south-
southwesterly at 5-10 knots which are expected to persist through
monday. as the parent low pressure slowly drifts towards the region,
increased gradient on tuesday will allow for the southerly winds to
increase to 10-15 knots before strengthening a bit more on tuesday
night. these elevated winds will likely occur off and on throughout
the week as the pattern becomes more progressive. at this point any
potential for marine headlines remains low given the marginal
conditions expected, but will need to continue to monitor the trend
in winds over the coming days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...77
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
019
fxus63 kiwx 301704
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
104 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

.key messages...

- chances for a few showers or sprinkles exists late tonight
into the weekend. little, if any impacts expected for
saturday evening.

- highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s should dominate much of
the period.

- brief warm up mid week, with better chances for rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 103 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

the spell of 70+ degree temps has ended for the time being, with the
airmass behind yesterday`s cold front shaving off about 10 degrees
in high temps going into the weekend (low to mid 60s, maybe a few
upper 60s by monday). drier low levels remain in place with
dewpoints in the 40s and surrounding soundings shows fairly dry
conditions below 850 mb. hi-res models continue to show some
spurious light showers/sprinkles for later this afternoon into
sat afternoon as an elevated warm front attempts to work north
towards the region. 295-305k isentropic surfaces show decent
lift and low cpds, but then impacts of dry air below that leads
to a lower confidence forecast on measurable precip. northern
areas will be on the edge of the rrq of a 90 kt jet streak which
may help give a little more kick to the lift. model blend has
backed off on timing of arrival overnight with differences in
models on where and when some light shower activity could take
shape with some indications of a diurnal uptick by the hrrr/rap
in the afternoon. will continue with no more than chc pops into
saturday afternoon with best chances on saturday. hopefully,
whatever is around will be gone by the time trick or treaters
hit the streets.

trough currently moving onshore in s california will move northeast
in a weakened state, but will enough lift to bring another chance
for showers sunday afternoon, possibly lingering into monday.
thereafter, the deeper trough that has been discussed at length for
days will become the main challenge through much of the upcoming
week with focus on mid week. energy is still on the edge of the best
upper air sampling, but hopefully better agreement starts over the
weekend into early next week as it moves east. best signals still
point towards mid week being on the wetter side, but the main upper
low may remain sw of the area. while severe weather threat may be
low, still expected one or more rounds of precip. the active pattern
will likely persist into next weekend, but low confidence exists
given the plethora of differences in models.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1249 am edt fri oct 30 2026

a cold front has now exited the area which ultimately prompted a
brief period of marine-enhanced fog. this area of fog appears to
be drifting sse based on satellite and surface observations.
medium-high confidence this marine-modified air mass will
bypass kfwa. flow veers to become nne later this morning which
will disrupt the modified air mass. otherwise today, increasing
high clouds as a disorganized area of low pressure lifts into
the midwest. rain is possible at ksbn just beyond this taf
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
907
fxus63 kdtx 301002
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
602 am edt fri oct 30 2026

.key messages...

- cooler but still above normal temperatures today and saturday.

- low chance for a few light showers late saturday towards central
mi.

- warm conditions with humidity will be possible early to middle
next week.

&&

.aviation...

shallow post-frontal moisture advection within prevailing northwest
flow will maintain some filaments of lower stratus this morning.
observational and satellite trends suggest limited enough coverage
to maintain simply a scattered mention thru the duration of the
morning period. otherwise, increasingly dry and stable conditions
will offer mostly clear skies during the daylight period. high cloud
thickens and gradually lowers tonight as high pressure shifts
through the region. existing north to northwest wind turning light
and variable overnight.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft friday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 339 am edt fri oct 30 2026

discussion...

upper midwestern surface high pressure fully expands over lower mi
today promoting mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies and a light
northwest breeze. thermal troughing following yesterday`s cold front
only glances the area, focused towards lake huron, supporting a
`cool` day though still a few degrees above late october normals
with highs ranging mid-50s (thumb) to low 60s towards ohio.
generally favorable radiative cooling setup tonight as the center of
high pressure drifts overhead turning winds calm, though cirrus tied
to a developing warm front over the midwest will attempt to lift in
from sw mi. this likely results in a decent sw-ne gradient in
overnight lows with the northeastern half, where cloud cover will be
lesser, seeing lows well into the lower 30s whereas the southwestern
half see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

influence of said high holds for the bulk of the day saturday
maintaining dry conditions save for perhaps the ohio border area.
aforementioned warm front lifts into the upper mississippi/western
great lakes latter half of saturday before washing out saturday
night. accompanying moisture transport is directed west of lake
michigan as only the periphery of elevated theta-e reaches se mi.
given the resident dry airmass still in place from the prior high,
rain activity will struggle the further east it advances across the
state. as a result, areas closer to central/south-central mi stand
the best shot at seeing isolated to scattered light showers (only a
few hundreths of qpf at best) sat-sat night.

early week remains unclear wrt to rain chances as diffuse vorticity
(tied to the old front) works into ohio valley/southern great lakes.
secondary push of theta-e, now in the lower levels as well, offers a
low chance for scattered light showers early monday however weak
synoptic forcing acts as a limiting factor with some model solutions
remaining dry. mid-late week period characterized by large pacific
northwest upper trough slowly translating across the central conus.
slow moving attendant cold front eventually offers the areas next
chances for wider spread rainfall as well as at least a brief return
towards late fall temperatures.

marine...

northwest flow holds for most of the day in the wake of a cold
front. the cold air advection taking place behind the cold front
will elevated mixing depths, allowing stronger air aloft to mix down
which will sustain gusts ranging around 20 to 25 knots across lake
huron through the morning. localized gust potential up to 40 knots
will be possible across north and north-central lake huron where the
favorable fetch aligns. high pressure to then build in tonight and
into the weekend which will then bring a period of light winds. a
low pressure system will track across the plains early next week,
increasing chances for more active conditions across the great lakes
by the midweek period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.