Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
392
fxus61 kcle 161034
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
issued by national weather service buffalo ny
634 am edt tue jun 16 2026

.what has changed...
minimal changes made this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a strong low pressure system will develop and move east through
the great lakes wednesday night into thursday. some severe storms
and gusty winds are possible.

2) a compact system will move east through the central great lakes
this afternoon into early wednesday, bringing showers and
thunderstorms into the area. a few storms may be strong to
severe across northwest ohio.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1... anomalously low pressure for mid-june will pass
east across the great lakes late wednesday and thursday pushing
across a warm front early wednesday. ample moisture will advect
into the region ahead of a cold frontal passage wednesday night
into thursday morning supporting showers and thunderstorms to
expand east in coverage.

while the best instability and corresponding severe weather
risk continues to correlate south and southwest of the forecast
area due to more favorable diurnal timing, a robust wind field
from a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet overhead will support
organized convection and strong to severe thunderstorms
overnight even with limited instability. meso-scale features
and parameters are just starting to shine a light to the
evolution of the system and given its earlier stages, there will
likely be organized convection with strong to severe
thunderstorms wednesday night into early thursday morning. a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms continues
for locations generally along and west of i-77, and a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for the areas east of i-77 to roughly
northeastern ohio and northwest pennsylvania state line. in
addition to the severe thunderstorm potential, there is also the
potential for heavy rain as pwat values are expected to rise to
around 2 inches with the potential for training storms if the
mean flow becomes southwesterly. this being said, there is a
slight risk for excessive rainfall for much of ohio and a
marginal risk along the far eastern and southeastern areas.

outside of the thunderstorm potential, the wind field will be
poignant for this time of the year, and therefor support gusty
non-thunderstorm winds late wednesday night through thursday.
expect gusts of 30 to 40 mph area wide, with a period of 45mph
gusts possible during peak diurnal mixing thursday afternoon.
this being said, will need to continue to monitor forecast
trends; a wind advisory can`t be ruled out at some point for
thursday.

key message 2... a weak trough will pass east across northern
ohio and northwest pennsylvania this afternoon and into early
wednesday, supporting some scattered showers and thunderstorms
to pass across northwest ohio this afternoon before spreading
east across the remainder of the area through the evening hours.
shower/thunderstorm chances will decrease and taper off from
west to east during the later half of tonight. due to the timing
of convection, the best areas for severe thunderstorms capable
of producing, damaging winds will lie across far northwest ohio
mainly west of i-75 where a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms remains in place. as the activity progresses east,
and with the loss of diurnal effect, strong to severe thunderstorms
will lose their potency and pass in the form of showers with a
few rumbles of thunder for the remainder of the area.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
ridge axis of surface high pressure entering the northeast will
continue to support widespread vfr conditions this morning
despite some cirrus advecting overhead of northern ohio.

winds will become southwest early this morning and be less than
10 knots. southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots later
this morning with gusts 15-25 knots by this afternoon.

showers and thunderstorms will pass from west to east across the
area late this afternoon and through this evening. the western
taf sites (ktol and kfdy) will have the potential to see the
stronger of the storms, though thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
for the remainder of the taf sites as the system passes east
this evening. even with the passage of thunderstorms,
conditions will drop to low end vfr.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
forecast tuesday night through friday.

saturday...mainly vfr. mainly dry with a slight chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon.

&&

.marine...
a light chop will continue into this morning before winds
freshen to 15 to 20 knots as a warm front lifts north this
evening. these conditions are expected to persist through much
of wednesday, however given the offshore flow waves should
remain 1 to 3 feet across the near shore zones through
wednesday. will continue to have to monitor trend in winds for
the potential need of headlines, though at this time this
potential appears marginal.

the most hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact lake
erie late wednesday evening and into the overnight hours as a
deepening surface low centered over the region will support
south-southwest winds of 20 to 30 knots across the entire basin
and therefore result in increasing waves to over 6 feet and
possible touching 10 feet at times in the open waters. these
conditions should drastically improve throughout the day
thursday, but it is highly advised to remain off of lake erie
late wednesday through much of thursday given the extremely
dangerous conditions to small crafts and the increasing likelihood
of strong rip currents. will continue to monitor trends in this
storm system to determine appropriate headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...eaj
aviation...eaj
marine...eaj

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
389
fxus63 kiwx 160959
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
559 am edt tue jun 16 2026

.key messages...

- a marginal risk for severe weather exists for today with
damaging winds and hail the main threats, but a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

- a moderate risk for severe weather exists for wednesday into
wednesday night. damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes,
and localized flooding are all potential threats.

- a moderate swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches is
present today and a high swim risk appears likely for
thursday.

- dry weather returns for friday and saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 am edt tue jun 16 2026

after ending the day monday with dew points in the 40s, especially
in areas east of in-15, dew points are expected to rise into the 50s
today. short range models have two lines of convection moving
through the area today. the first is along the return moisture plume
and the second is back with the cold front. this first of showers
and storms swinging in around 17 or 18z is expected to have only
around 500 j/kg of cape with relatively weak shear (better south
than north) in this inverted-v type environment so it comes with
less confidence in any severe weather occurring, but if shear is
slightly higher, it`s possible a gusty to damaging wind event is
observed. the second line of storms, associated with the cold front,
swinging in around 21z is expected to have better instability
(around 1500 j/kg) and around 25 to 30 kts of shear, which would
point to a better environment for damaging winds and perhaps
some hail. this second line`s instability is contingent on any
cloud debris from the first line being removed though. there is
enough low level turning of the wind and low enough lcls that a
tornado cannot be ruled out from the line of convection
associated with the cold front. also, gusty winds 25 to 35 mph
will be possible today as a low level jet swings through.

the eventual location of the cold front tuesday night is forecast
down in mo, but the front`s location later in the day and into the
overnight has been trending northward over the last couple of the
gfs runs. even the hrrr attempts to push the warm front into the
area starting around 22z wednesday evening. however, both the hrrr
and the nam attempt to push what appears to be an mcs into the area
around midday as a vort max develops overhead. if this puts out a
cold pool, it may be tough get destabilization/recovery ahead of the
following cold front. if we do, the low level jet is very strong and
low level turning appears very conducive to a damaging wind and
tornado environment. but again, trying to get parcels up into the
better shear with limited instability may be difficult. given the
mcs and then squall line evolution, this may be enough to get heavy
rain across the area. we`ve been so dry so that we can probably take
some rain into the soils. models have about a 20 to 40 percent
chance of 2 inches of rain in 24 hours ending 12z thursday, which is
helped along by the pwats reaching 2 inches wednesday evening as the
theta-e plume swings through.

one other aspect of this is that there is a 17 mb pressure fall in
6 hrs over the area wednesday evening, which appears to be as
the first mcs is leaving the area. usually models display the
possibility of a wake low by indicating subsidence in model
soundings, but that doesn`t appear to be the case in hrrr
soundings. this may may be an indication it doesn`t happen.
something to keep an eye on.

given the strength of the wave and its path across lk mi, there
could be some rain that attempts to form thursday. the nam has
500 j/kg of sbcape within this area so it would probably just
lean showers and, at best, non-severe storms.

friday and saturday are dry as mid level ridging and surface high
pressure pass through. the next chance for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms comes sunday as the next wave ejects off the
rockies.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 529 am edt tue jun 16 2026

two opportunities for showers and storms occur today as two
convective lines swing through, the second along a cold front. there
is some question about the severity and southern extent of the first
line, but the second line looks to have the most confidence to be
the stronger of the two. given this, will go with a prob30 group for
mvfr conditions with both lines individually, but lower for the
second line. damaging wind and hail are the main threats, but a
tornado cannot be ruled out.

additionally, southwest gusts to 25 to 30 kts will be possible
through the day today.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
112
fxus63 kdtx 161128
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
728 am edt tue jun 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and early
evening. isolated storms may be strong to severe.

- widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected wednesday evening
and wednesday night. heavy rainfall is likely which may lead to
localized flooding, especially in urban areas. the potential also
exists for severe weather, mainly south of i-94.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the week
and next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions are anticipated throughout the morning hours with
residual dry flow from the high pressure system to the south and
east. well mixed boundary layer conditions with southwest winds 10
to 20 knots at midday. prefrontal moisture advection will then
result in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development
after 19z this afternoon. an additional line of thunderstorms will be
possible along a cold front between 23-03 with ifr visibility
restrictions.

d21/dtw convection... a potential for thunderstorm exists after 19z
this afternoon with a potential for strong to severe between 21-02z
this evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon.

* moderate for thunderstorms after 18z tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 408 am edt tue jun 16 2026

discussion...

dry and cool conditions this morning give way to a slight increase
in humidity and warmth compared to yesterday as an upstream low
pressure system advects higher theta-e air in on a breezy southwest
wind. an uncapped profile allows for convection to ensue early this
afternoon as forcing for ascent increases in advance of the mid-
level shortwave arriving from the west. a prefrontal trough appears
to be a focus for convection to organize into a broken line in the
19 to 23z window, then the cold front offers a second round of
convection between 23 and 04z tonight. wind shear through the lowest
6 km is initially weak at around 20 kt but increases to around 30
kt, and mlcape is not particularly noteworthy around 1000 j/kg or
less. isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with
inverted-v soundings and mid-level dry air supportive of wind gusts
of 40 to 60 mph as the most probable threat.

a vigorous wave diving out of the mean troughing centered over
manitoba will drive a powerful low across the great lakes wednesday
night. several solutions show a 500mb low closing off over
wisconsin, producing a sub-990mb surface low that is analyzed 4 to 5
standard deviations below normal for this time of year. tremendous
mass adjustment and lift will occur ahead of this wave with
widespread rainfall spreading in late wednesday afternoon into
wednesday night, followed by gusty winds thursday. the main threats
with this system appear to be heavy rainfall and flooding as well as
damaging wind gusts. deep moisture transport on the nose of the 60+
kt llj and through the column will quickly send pwat to the 1.50 to
2.00" range and warm cloud layer depth to 12 kft, making for
efficient rainfall production in any convection. fast storm motion
will be a limiting factor, but intense fgen along the w-e oriented
elevated warm front will still support a corridor of heavy rainfall
across the area. the most likely outcome will be rainfall totals
ranging between 1 and 2 inches for much of se mi, but upper tails of
ensemble qpf guidance and even 16.00z refs lpmm output hint at
potential for localized totals in excess of 3 inches. most of this
is expected to fall between 8pm and 2am.

will need to monitor the mesoscale environment late wednesday night
closely, as very strong forcing and wind shear will be in place. the
limiting factor for severe weather will be instability given moist
adiabatic lapse rates and static stability introduced by the feed of
warm air at 850mb. backed flow, high 0-1km srh, and low lcl heights
in the vicinity does bring concern for tornadoes if the warm front
lifts northward into the southern counties. damaging wind gusts
would also be likely given the low-level kinematics. still plenty of
finer detail to gather from additional hi-res runs today and
tonight, but initial runs this morning look to support heavy
convection south of the state line that may suppress the surface
front south. available ml guidance, with confirmation from the day 2
spc outlook, supports the conditional threat for severe weather
mainly south of i-94, but possibly up to the i-69 corridor.

the longwave trough axis slowly passes overhead from thursday into
friday night, maintaining cool weather for mid june standards.
chances for scattered afternoon showers and storms exist both days
as daytime heating capitalizes on steep lapse rates and continued
cyclonic flow. saturday may be an opportunity for drier conditions
as the jet stream lifts north and upper confluence gains traction,
but additional pva within the nw flow does still present a low-end
chance for another diurnal flare-up of isolated, weak convection.
forecast confidence decreases considerably by sunday and monday as
there will be multiple wave interactions in the vicinity. overall,
it does look favorable for a more active pattern to continue into
next week.

marine...

a small craft advisory is in effect for saginaw bay and the thumb
nearshore for gusty winds and elevated waves. drier conditions wane
this afternoon with the arrival of a low pressure system and it`s
attendant cold front, leading to showers and thunderstorms for the
central waterways later today. convection should hold-off until
after 1 pm and generally conclude before midnight as rainfall works
from west to east. a brief break in activity ensues wednesday as
shortwave ridging quickly passes over the region, followed by a
secondary stronger system wednesday night into thursday. more
intense convection is possible with the second system, capable of
damaging winds, and to a lesser extent, waterspouts and large hail.
seasonably strong gradient (non-thunderstorm) winds will accompany
the low with prevailing speeds climbing above 25 knots as the center
of the low approaches lake huron late wednesday night. gusts to
gales are probable for some portion of the lakes wednesday night
into thursday, after shallow mixing profiles deepen slightly, and 40-
50 knot flow materializes within the lowest 3 kft. winds decline a
bit and organize out of the west thursday evening through saturday,
accompanied by additional chances for showers.

hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast this
afternoon and evening. most areas will receive a quarter inch or
less of rainfall, and flooding is not likely today.

a seasonably strong low pressure system will then arrive late
wednesday, producing widespread rainfall with numerous heavy
thunderstorms through wednesday night. rainfall totals ranging
between 1 and 2 inches are likely for much of se mi, and isolated
areas may receive over 3 inches. most of this rainfall is expected
to occur in 6 hours or less, currently centered between 8pm and 2am.
this rainfall may pose a flash flooding threat, mainly in urban
areas, and rises on rivers and streams can be expected.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.