Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
744
fxus61 kcle 242355
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
755 pm edt sun may 24 2026

.what has changed...
pops have trended up across the east for this afternoon and evening
with potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. lowered
temperatures across the northeast lakeshore areas on memorial day
with northerly winds off lake erie. chances of precipitation have
shifted more inland on wednesday and trended down.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers with scattered thunderstorms will fill in late this
afternoon into this evening with heavy rainfall possible across
inland northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. training could
lead to localized flooding in the southeast.

2) memorial day will be dry and warmer.

3) warmer temperatures in the low 80s expected tuesday and wednesday
with a trend towards normal for the remainder of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak area of surface low pressure is located over
eastern indiana this afternoon and will move northeast across
northern ohio through the evening. this is ahead of a broad trough
aloft that is lifting from the mid-mississippi valley into the
central great lakes. an axis of high precipitable water values of
around 1.75 inches extends into the ohio valley and will advect into
northeast ohio this evening. showers are moving northward out of
central ohio and have raised pops for this evening, especially
across central and eastern portions of the forecast area. most
unstable cape values are forecast to increase to 500-700 j/kg across
southern portions of the area but instability will be limited due to
abundant cloud cover and a nearly saturated column as shown by model
sounding from cak-yng. scattered thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage after 4 pm with efficient rainfall rates.
the qpf forecast is generally for a half inch to an inch for
inland areas east of i-77 but localized pockets of 2 inches or
more are possible. this could result in rises on the eagle creek
near phalanx station or the killbuck creek. storm motion will
be to the northeast at around 20 knots so some movement is
expected but training is also possible. following the heavy
rainfall, patchy fog may develop overnight.

another area of showers is located across lower michigan and indiana
associated with the forcing aloft. these are expected to move into
nw ohio but with a general decrease in coverage.

key message 2...
after the trough passes to the north tonight, high pressure
will build south into the area on monday. mostly cloudy skies
to start the day will scatter out through the afternoon.
temperatures will be near seasonal normals with slightly cooler
values downwind of lake erie with a north wind.

key message 3...
an upper level ridge builds overhead tuesday and wednesday and
temperatures climb into the lower 80s. models have trended drier
with moisture in the low levels on wednesday. a trough is still
expected to swing south across the eastern great lakes and
could provide enough support for a few showers or thunderstorms.
a low pop remains near the route 30 corridor.

temperatures trend cooler behind the back door cold front for
thursday. later in the week model spread increases with the 12z
gfs bringing a closed upper low into the eastern great lakes
while the other long range models favor a ridge across the great
lakes and a trough off the new england coast. the 12z
operational run is deeper than the gfs ensemble but does
indicate an opportunity to be influenced by some cooler air next
weekend. ecmwf ensembles show nearly a 20 degree spread in high
temperatures for cle for next weekend so confidence is below
normal at this time.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
primarily a mix of mvfr to vfr conditions across the area with a
few pockets of ifr and lifr as rain persists generally along and
west of i-71. should see rain exit the area to the east by
around midnight as a cold front sweeps though. a few light
showers could linger across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania tonight.

widespread lifr conditions are expected with low ceilings and
visibility reductions to 1 sm or less are expected late tonight
through monday morning. fog is likely with the glamp showing
around a 20-25% chance of dense fog with visibility down to 1/4
sm.

conditions should quickly improve to vfr by late morning or
early afternoon on monday, with vfr conditions expected through
the rest of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers in central ohio on
wednesday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions expected through the remainder of the
holiday weekend as high pressure builds across the region. light
and variable winds, under 10 knots, and waves of 1 foot or less
are expected to persist through mid-week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
995
fxus63 kiwx 242355
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
755 pm edt sun may 24 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog developing overnight. patchy dense fog is
possible. a marine dense fog advisory is in effect for the
lake michigan nearshore. otherwise, clearing clouds with lows
in the 50s.

- dry and trending warmer monday into tuesday. low rain chances
(10-30%) return on wednesday.

- seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions thursday
through next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt sun may 24 2026

showers and a few embedded thunderstorms just west of the interstate
69 corridor in northern in and southwest mi as of 18z will continue
to track east through the remainder of the forecast area this
afternoon into early this evening. the bulk of this activity is
anchored to a surface trough enhanced by a shortwave and associated
weak 30 kt mid level jetlet lifting east-northeaset through the
lower great lakes. skinny/tall cape and near 1.50 inch precipitable
water values will likely support some heavier downpours and a few
lightning strikes. marginal instability and weak lapse rates will
act to keep any convection well below severe limits.

a drier, subsident air mass will filter in tonight through tuesday
behind today`s system with high pressure generally in control. fog
will be possible early monday given lingering near sfc moisture,
light winds and mainly clear skies. sunnier skies in this regime
will allow for warmer daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
warmest on tuesday.

a rather stagnant, near omega blocking pattern settles in midweek
into next weekend in the mid to upper levels, with troughing into
the northwest us and anomalous ridging in the upper midwest and
south-central canada. this transition does send a backdoor cold
front south toward the area on wednesday, while at the same time a
moisture-laden 700mb impulse and warm front attempts to lift north
toward the us 30 corridor. these features will bring low chances (10-
30%, highest south of us 30) for showers and a few storms on
wednesday, with the remainder of the week/weekend likely dry with
seasonable temps and lower humidity as the merged fronts likely
settle off to the southwest.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 744 pm edt sun may 24 2026

expect predominantly vfr conditions through this evening, then
expect br/fg and/or low ceiling development overnight at both
terminals, with ifr/lifr conditions expected (especially at
ksbn). vlifr visibilities are possible at both ksbn and kfwa,
but felt more confident in ksbn dropping to 1/4sm so have a
tempo between 9-12z dropping to 1/4sm bkn003. for now, kept kfwa
lifr just at/above airfield landing minimums. otherwise,
decreasing clouds at both sites, with kfwa seeing the back edge
of the mvfr as of this writing (broken ceilings 2500-3000ft).
have a tempo for mvfr and slightly stronger winds until 2z.
expect calm/variable winds overnight shifting east-southeast
through the morning at both sites, with improvement to mvfr
after sunrise and then vfr by late morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
395
fxus63 kdtx 242334
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
734 pm edt sun may 24 2026

.key messages...

- an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross the area
this afternoon.

- summer-like temperatures memorial day through wednesday, with low
chances for precipitation. this warm up will be followed by a cool
down, with seasonable temperature late week and through next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

deep lapse rates near moist adiabatic resulted in potential
instability and a cluster of elevated showers over metro detroit the
past hour. low confidence exists in cloud trends early this evening
with enough daylight hours left to cause a small amount of
insolation. recent rain will likely lead to additional low level
saturation and broken stratocumulus. will maintain a more pessimistic
mvfr ceiling into the evening. low confidence exists then late
tonight regarding any fog potential. center of surface high pressure
does build into far southern lower michigan late which could result
in a favorable conditions for a surface inversion. however, could
very well end up with more of a low ifr stratus deck and the
guidance is mixed particularly for the detroit taf sites. will
maintain the inherited ifr visibility restrictions and monitor
trends. daytime mixing monday should allow clouds to mix out and
prefer low sky fraction.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight. low monday.

* low for visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings at less than 300 ft.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt sun may 24 2026

discussion...

as mid-level troughing continues to sweep through the region today,
the ongoing cluster/line of showers and embedded storms will
continue to move east across the area. low level moisture looks to
hang around into the overnight hours, but we should start to see
these pesky, lingering low clouds scatter out tomorrow morning.

another weak trough is progged to move east across the upper great
lakes monday through tuesday. ahead of and south of this next
shortwave, we will see strengthening warm air advection and a
significant warm up compared to the weekend. models are fairly
consistent with 925mb temperatures around 18c advecting into the
area on monday, and then further increasing to 20-22c by tuesday.
with good mixing processes at play each day, this warm air advection
will help support temperatures warming into the upper 70s and lower
80s for memorial day and then mid to upper 80s for tuesday. the
warmest conditions over the next two days are expected up across the
tri-cities and portions of the thumb. there is a very low chance
(<15%) that showers or storms develop during the afternoon hours on
memorial day up across the tri-cities and thumb region. moisture
transport and forcing are more impressive further north.

by tuesday, a weak cold front extending off of low pressure well
northeast of the region slowly drops south across northern michigan.
mid-level flow is fairly unidirectional along the frontal boundary,
so don`t expect it to move north/south much during the day. thus,
have maintained a dry forecast. by wednesday, this front will get
start to feel the influence of another shortwave digging south across
ontario into quebec, and will finally drop south across the area.
this will bring the next best chance for showers and thunderstorms to
the area. ahead of the front, temperature on wednesday likely climb
into the 80s for much of the area, but some areas may not warm as
much depending on the timing of the backdoor cold front.

high pressure builds in behind the cold front ushering in drier and
more seasonable conditions through the end of the week and into
next weekend. daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows dropping
down into the 40s/50s are expected.

marine...

light winds continue to prevail across the region. high pressure
builds into the area tonight and remains in place through tuesday,
favoring the development of southwest flow across the central great
lakes. southwest winds may increase across the saginaw bay area on
tuesday, with southwest winds increasing to around 20 knots. by
wednesday, high pressure becomes quite elongated, stretching across
the ohio valley and into the northeast. a cold front then drops south
across the area late wednesday, with the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. the mid-week cold front is not expected to be
particularly strong, so currently not anticipating any significant
ramp up of winds behind the front. another area of high pressure
builds into the region behind the front and will lead to varying
winds throughout the end of the week. there may be periods with
enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave activity in
nearshore zones at times.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...ja
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.