Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
354
fxus61 kcle 111815
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
215 pm edt sat jul 11 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) a stationary boundary lingering across central ohio will continue
to be the focus of scattered thunderstorms today. heavy rain with
these storms will remain the primary concern.

2) high pressure returns tonight, bringing dry weather and above
average temperatures to the area through at least midweek.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a stationary boundary extending west-east across central ohio
continues to be the focus for additional convection this
afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough pushes southeast
towards ky/tn. as diurnal heating continues to increase this
afternoon, expected an increase in storm coverage due to an
increase in instability. the primary concern with all of these
storms is the threat of heavy rain and subsequent flooding
concerns. pwat values of 1.5 to 2 inches across the area couple
with deepening warm cloud layers and a flow parallel to the
boundary may result in local flash flooding concerns, especially
in areas where storms begin to train or in areas impacted
multiple times. these storms are also moving rather slow which
will prolong the duration of rainfall with rainfall totals of 1
to 2 inches possible. will continue to monitor the convection
this afternoon and the potential for flooding. the weather
prediction center has issued multiple mesoscale precipitation
discussions today highlighting this concern.

this evening, the boundary should become more progressive as it
pushes south, allowing for the chances of showers and storms to
diminish across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. behind
the departing front high pressure will build south and mark the
end of precipitation chances for a bit.

key message 2...
high pressure will become establishes over the area late tonight
into sunday, marking the start of a period of dry conditions
through at least midweek before a more active pattern returns
late this week into the weekend. with this dominant high and
associated ridge, temperatures will climb into the 90s by
wednesday with heat indices approaching 100 degrees(f) across
western counties. given multiple days of hot conditions with
overnight lows only falling into the upper 60s to low 70s, by
tuesday and wednesday there is moderate to high heat risk across
the area. elevated heat risks are possible into thursday
although confidence is lower as synoptic flow gains a more
northerly component. by friday, conditions begin to cool a bit
and the heat risk diminishes to minor. will continue to monitor
the forecast and trends in moisture in the coming days to
determine extent of impact expected with this mid-july push of
heat.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
scattered showers, mainly along and south of us-30, are expected
to develop and push south across southern terminals
(kfdy/kmfd/kcak) between 18z/sat and 22z/sat. maintained tsra tempos
for those terminals this afternoon and evening. still can`t rule
out patchy fog developing overnight tonight at sites where
rainfall occurs, but not enough confidence to put in the taf at
this time.

northeast winds 8-12 knots this afternoon and evening will
diminish to 5 knots or less tonight. northeast winds will again
increase to 8-12 knots late sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr in patchy fog possible early monday morning.
non-vfr possible on thursday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
choppy conditions expected for the remainder of today through
sunday as northeast winds around 15 knots will allow for wave
heights to build to 2-4 feet in the central basin. a moderate
risk of rip currents remains across the central basin through
sunday evening. swimming is discouraged.

high pressure builds over the great lakes region for next week
leading to improving marine conditions. light and variable
winds on monday become southwest by tuesday as high pressure
exits to the east. southwest winds 10-15 knots turn west on
wednesday with wave heights building to 2-3 feet in the eastern
basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
939
fxus63 kiwx 111757
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
157 pm edt sat jul 11 2026

.key messages...

- areas south of us-24 have a 20 to 30 percent chance to see
rainfall into this evening. heavy rain leading to flooding is
a possibility there.

- becoming drier and warmer between later tonight and next
week. a return to 90f degree high temperatures and 70f dew
points looks possible for tuesday and wednesday of next week.

- there is a moderate swim risk for beaches along the lake
michigan shoreline in la porte county, in. breaking waves and
currents are expected. heed the advice of lifeguards and never
swim alone.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 147 pm edt sat jul 11 2026

a cold front is still caught up around the area today as a
convectively enhanced shortwave passes by to the southwest. moisture
continues to reside just south of the forecast area, south of what
appears to be a left over outflow from yesterday. convergence
resides just south of the forecast area this morning where
convection is taking place. we`ll have to watch for such areas of
convergence today into this evening as there`s some potential for
them to push into the southern 1 to 2 rows of counties of our
forecast area into this evening. there`s still 1500 to 2500 j/kg of
sbcape on the nam and some low level moisture to work with
indicating some heavy rain and gusty wind potential.

that convectively enhanced shortwave saunters into southern indiana
and western kentucky sunday morning and this allows the drier air to
filter into the area from the north behind the cold front. low level
east winds and surface high pressure also help to keep the area dry
through at least monday.

looking at the low level warmth and moisture picture, the area is in
a relative theta-e trough on monday between an approaching area of
warm air from the northwest (which is a little unusual) and the
stalled cold front to our south. models still keep the area dry on
monday even as a relatively weak vorticity streamer pushes through
the area. the monday through wednesday period sees high temps trend
from the upper 80s into the low to mid 90s. the sfc humidity is
where more of the questions result. the nbm has been advertising dew
points staying from the mid 60s to around 70f on tuesday whereas
some of the individual models have been advertising a chance to
break through the 70f mark on tuesday. this would make tuesday have
a better chance to see heat headlines as long as pop storms stay
away like they`ve been forecast to. it would join wednesday that has
been shown in models to have more confidence to reach that 70 to
maybe even 75f threshold of dew points. the crop evapotranspiration
moisture may not be completely captured by models and that may be
contributing to underdoing moisture especially since this airmass is
coming in from an area which is normally drier and different from
the gulf, which may be more easily seen as humid.

trying to judge when rain gets into the area is another tough
conversation to have as the interplay between a trough building into
the eastern conus fights with the ridge across the central conus for
control of conus weather. some sort of model confluence of bringing
rain into the area takes place on thursday as some combination of
the remnants of the convection from today wrap back northwestward
and combine with energy sliding southward from the trough in the
east. things really start to diverge after thursday, though, as a
trough in the west breaks down the ridge and shoves it eastward on
the gfs. on the other hand, the ecmwf keeps the ridge in place but
brings ridge riders into the area for the weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 153 pm edt sat jul 11 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals, with temporary
mvfr ceilings at kfwa this afternoon. expect ceilings around
2000-2500 ft for the next hour or so before lifting towards
low-end vfr. winds out of the e-ne will be light through the
period(variable at times tonight). showers and thunderstorms are
possible mainly at kfwa which is closer to a stalled boundary,
but didn`t feel confident enough to add a tempo/prob30 given
most of the storms are confined further south at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
845
fxus63 kdtx 111948
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
348 pm edt sat jul 11 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry and near-normal temperatures this weekend.

- high confidence for above normal temperatures (90+) next week.

- shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the second half of
the work week.

&&

.discussion...

surface high pressure builds into the northeastern quadrant of conus
today and sunday under a region of modest mid-level height rises. a
seasonable airmass is currently in place with the 12z.kdtx raob
observing pwat of 1.10" and h8 temperature of 14 c, falling within
the interquartile range of sounding climatology. this equates to
near normal temperatures in the mid-80s today, with a slight warming
trend into sunday. cloud trends will be the only real forecast
challenge this weekend amidst lake moisture influence in the ne flow
regime and high cloud streaming in from the ohio valley low. the
latter becomes less influential sunday with the low peeling off
toward the atlantic coast, leaving just localized potential for lake
induced stratus/patchy fog development by sunday morning.

warming trend peaks during the first half of the week as the 600 dam
ridge over the dakotas/upper midwest folds into the great lakes.
position of the ridge forces gulf moisture to carve west into the
plains/rockies before pivoting around the ridge and into se
michigan, compromising the moisture quality. this does two things
for us: 1. keeps dewpoints aob 70 degrees, and 2. keeps
thermodynamic profiles capped for the first half of the week. so
even as temperatures climb into the mid-90s, heat indices largely
look to remain below 100 degrees. lack of moisture also limits
convective chances, with projected soundings appearing too dry and
capped for any meaningful rain/storm chances until mid-week.

back half of the week carries lower predictability in both
temperature trends and storm chances. much of this is related to how
the ridge evolves, with the gfs favoring a more persistent, strong
ridge than the euro solution. this ultimately influences how the
next pacific wave behaves, which moves onshore the pacific northwest
mid-week. regardless of which scenario verifies, mean wind is
forecast to shift to the northwest mid-week and puts se michigan
within a favored corridor for mcs propagation as we often see in
these ridging patterns. so although there are still details to work
out, an overall increase in thunderstorm chances is expected from
thursday into the weekend as the ridge breaks down and a more
dynamic setup emerges.

&&

.marine...

broad area of high pressure will continue to allow for quiet marine
conditions through the weekend. this high pressure will gradually
strengthen going into sunday. lighter northeast winds today will
become variable as the high passes overhead.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1248 pm edt sat jul 11 2026

aviation...

high pressure centered on the northern great lakes maintains ne wind
over lower mi that is bringing in air with gradually lower moisture
content today and tonight. in the meantime, there is a generous
cumulus response to daytime heating as surface td lingers in the mid
60s this afternoon. this combines with a component of high clouds
along the dtw corridor tied to the front stalled in the ohio valley
and these continue west to east over that area. both the cumulus and
cirrus diminish this evening as surface high pressure reinforces a
dry ne wind that is projected to carry surface td down into the 50s
during the night. this limits fog potential under otherwise clear sky
tonight and sunday morning.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are forecast today through
sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......ss
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.