Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
753
fxus61 kcle 012339
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
639 pm est mon dec 1 2025

.synopsis...
a high pressure ridge exits toward new england today. tonight
through midday tuesday, a low develops northeastward from the
northwestern gulf toward the mid-atlantic coast and extends a
trough into our region. later tuesday through tuesday night,
another ridge will affect our region as the embedded high
pressure center moves from the south-central united states
toward the southern appalachians.

&&

.near term /through tuesday night/...
a winter weather advisory has been issued for our entire
forecast area for widespread accumulating snow tonight into
tuesday morning. please see weather.gov/cle/winter for detailed
information regarding the advisory, including when and where it
is in effect.

dry weather is expected to persist in our cwa through sunset
this evening as a ridge at the surface and aloft, and associated
stabilizing subsidence, depart toward new england. between
sunset this evening and sunset tuesday evening, a trough axis
aloft should pivot e`ward from the upper ms valley and southern
great plains to lake ontario and the carolinas and be followed
by shortwave ridging building from the west. during tuesday
night, the subtle shortwave ridge will crest e`ward over our
region. at the surface, a low attendant to the trough aloft is
expected to move ne`ward from the northwestern gulf to atlantic
waters just south of nantucket tonight through sunset tuesday
evening and deepen amidst mslp falls that will accompany
divergence aloft, downstream of the mid/upper-level trough
axis. this low will extend a surface trough into our region
tonight through about midday tuesday. later on tuesday through
tuesday night, a surface ridge will build from the upper ms
valley and eventually crest e`ward over our area. this weather
pattern at the surface and aloft will maintain an unusually-cold
air mass across our region. lows tonight will settle into the
lower 20`s to lower 30`s, while daytime highs on tuesday will
reach the lower to mid 30`s. tuesday night`s lows should reach
the upper teens to mid 20`s around daybreak wednesday.

widespread snow, associated with the low pressure system`s warm
conveyor belt undergoing moist isentropic ascent aloft, is
expected to overspread our entire cwa and reach the surface via
the wet-bulb affect generally from west to east between about 7
pm est this evening and midnight tonight. the snow is expected
to be steady to heavy at times with maximum snowfall rates of
0.5" to 1.0" per hour since moderately-strong or strong and
maximized ascent should be collocated with a cloudy dgz about
0.5 km to 1 km thick at times. the widespread snow should exit
our region from west to east between about 6 am and 11 am
tuesday morning. note: a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level
atmospheric column over ~6c lake erie, the seeder-feeder
process, and weak lake-induced instability amidst a nw`erly to
n`erly mean low-level flow should allow a period of steady to
heavy lake-enhanced snow to impact locations generally south of
central and eastern lake erie from about daybreak through late
morning on tuesday. snowfall totals of 2-6" are expected in our
cwa. the greatest totals are expected in/near the snowbelt of ne
oh/nw pa due to lake-enhancement. from about midday tuesday
through tuesday night, primarily dry weather is expected as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the
west. however, isolated to scattered lake-effect snow (les)
showers, steady to heavy at times per model sounding data,
should impact the snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa through the first few
wee hours of wednesday morning as the mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of lake erie backs
from nnw`erly to sw`erly. these les showers should result in
highly-variable additional snow accumulations of a trace to two
inches.

&&

.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
odds favor dry weather on wednesday as the ridge at the surface
and aloft exits e`ward. despite weak low-level waa on the
backside of the ridge, daytime highs should reach only the
lower to mid 30`s as abundant cloud cover and widespread fresh
snow cover limit daytime warming. during wednesday night, a
shortwave trough should move e`ward across the great lakes and
vicinity, including our cwa. at the surface, the attendant cold
front is expected to sweep se`ward across lake erie, northern
oh, and nw pa. periods of snow are expected due to the
following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough
axis; convergence/moist ascent along the surface portion and
upper-reaches of the front. this round of snow should total a
coating to two inches in our cwa. low-level caa behind the front
should contribute to lows reaching the mid teens to mid 20`s
around daybreak thursday.

primarily dry weather is expected on thursday through thursday
night as another ridge builds e`ward from the upper midwest and
then crests e`ward over/near our cwa. however, a nw`erly mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of
lake erie should allow scattered les to impact the ne oh/nw pa
snowbelt and vicinity thursday morning through afternoon. the les
should then dissipate by around sunset thursday evening as
lake-induced cape wanes via synoptic low-level dry air advection
and a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the ridge.
fresh accumulations from the les should be one inch or less. net
low-level caa should contribute to daytime highs only in the
20`s on thursday. partial clearing, low humidity at/near the
surface, and weak or calm surface winds should contribute to
efficient radiational cooling late thursday afternoon through
daybreak friday, when lows should reach mainly the 5f to 15f
range.

&&

.long term /friday through monday/...
current odds favor dry weather on friday as the ridge mentioned
in the short-term discussion exits e`ward. daytime highs should
reach only the mid 20`s to lower 30`s. cyclonic sw`erly to
nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
affect our region friday night through monday as a longwave
trough associated with a reinforcing cold air mass becomes
established over eastern canada and the eastern united states.
at the surface, net troughing should become established and
multiple surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave
disturbances should sweep through northern oh and nw pa. periods
of snow showers are possible due to moist isentropic ascent
ahead of the shortwave trough axes and convergence/moist ascent
along the surface trough axes. in addition, the evolution of the
air mass and mean low-level flow should allow periods of les to
target the ne oh/nw pa snowbelt and vicinity later saturday
through monday. overnight low temperatures should reach the
teens or 20`s friday, saturday, and sunday nights, respectively.
daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 30`s this weekend
and the mid 20`s to lower 30`s on monday.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
areawide vfr conditions will rapidly tank to ifr, even lifr at
times, as widespread snow showers move east across the region.
looking at observations upstream in central and northern
indiana, ceilings and visibilites have fallen to ifr/lifr in
moderate to heavy snow showers. the expectation is for these
snow showers to move into northern ohio terminals over the next
few hours. have kept similar onset timing across terminals with
snow arriving at tol/fdy around 00-02z/tue, mfd/cle 02-05z/tue,
and reaching eastern taf sites cak/yng/eri 03-06z/tue.
confidence in ifr to lifr conditions remains high with snow
showers as peak snowfall rates will exceed 1/2" to 1" per hour.
snow will exit to the east tuesday morning (~11-15z/tue) with
some lingering lake effect persisting across the typical
snowbelt terminals through tuesday afternoon. expect for ifr to
lifr ceilings to lift to mvfr through the day on tuesday behind
the snow showers.

winds remain light and under 10 knots through the taf period.
generally easterly winds this evening will favor a northerly to
northwesterly component tuesday morning.

outlook...non-vfr may linger in lake effect snow showers through
tuesday evening, with ceilings remaining non-vfr until early
wednesday. non-vfr likely again wednesday evening and overnight
in snow along a cold front. non-vfr possible in scattered snow
showers on friday.

&&

.marine...
winds will be light (<10kt) out of the south to southeast through
early tuesday morning. a trough will drop across lake erie tuesday
morning as low pressure deepens off the mid atlantic coast, shifting
winds around to the north-northwest at 10-15kt. high pressure
briefly slides through the ohio valley tonight and wednesday,
shifting winds southwesterly. winds ramp up to 10-20kt late tonight
and further increase to 20-30kt by wednesday afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. winds shift northwesterly late
wednesday night into thursday at 15-25kt behind the cold front. high
pressure quickly builds from the west late thursday and thursday
night, allowing winds to decrease as they shift south-southwest.
small craft advisories will be needed wednesday into thursday in
association with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 10 am est tuesday for ohz003-
006>009-017>019-027-028-036.
winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 1 pm est
tuesday for ohz010-029>033-037-038-047.
winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm est
tuesday for ohz011>014-020>023-089.
pa...winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est tuesday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...13
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 012320
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 pm est mon dec 1 2025

.key messages...

- accumulating snow tonight, generally between 2 and 4 inches,
highest along and south of us 24.

- additional light snow chances (20-70%) late wednesday afternoon
into wednesday night, mainly near lake michigan.

- sub-zero wind chills expected thursday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 141 pm est mon dec 1 2025

tonight`s synoptic snow event remains on target as a potent
positively tiled upper trough and shot of mainly mid level
moisture/ascent swing east through the ohio valley and lower great
lakes. the initial corridor of moist isentropic ascent likely
allowing top down saturation for light snow into most of our in and
mi zones 22-00z, reaching nw oh by 00-01z per latest hrrr/ob trends.
the more pronounced slab of deeper mid level ascent and elevated
fgen on the northern fringes of a 60-70 kt 700 mb jet progress
through this evening into early tuesday with the bulk of the
accumulating snow. progressive nature to the wave, and limited low
level moisture return, should keep snow amounts/rates from getting
out of hand despite a relatively deep/saturated dgz. did opt to
retain higher slr`s near 15:1 given this deeper dgz, which when
combined with a model qpf average in 0.15-0.25" still gives a
general 2-4" type snow total, highest along the us 24 corridor where
localized higher amounts up to 5" appear possible within more
intense mesobanding.

any les activity in wake of the system should be uneventful as large
scale subsidence and backing/diminishing winds takes a toll on
inversion heights. a period of weak warm advection then emerges
within increasing southwest flow into tuesday night and wednesday
with dry conditions prevailing. this occurs in advance of an arctic
cold front expected to drop through wednesday night in response to a
piece of the polar low pivoting through the northern great lakes.
some snow may accompany the frontal passage late wednesday afternoon
into wednesday night despite the lacking moisture recovery, best
chances near lake mi where enhancement is expected for a time.
arctic air funnels in behind the front for thursday and thursday
night, with sub-zero wind chills anticipated by thursday night.

ensemble guidance overall continues to suggest a northwest flow
regime into this weekend and early next week with below normal temps
persisting. a series of mid level impulses look to be anchored
within an active pacific jet during this time. this could bring a
few opportunities for snow, though timing and track of these
features at this range is of low confidence.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 620 pm est mon dec 1 2025

widespread light/moderate snow spreading across the area this
evening as a broad midlevel trough swings through the region.
main change to the forecast was to push up the timing some based
on latest obs and hi-res guidance. periods of 1/2sm visibility
are likely (especially at kfwa) until 05z. snow will exit the
area around 09z but low stratus will likely remain through much
of the period. there is low confidence in the exact ceiling
height forecast though. some brief lake effect snow is also
possible at ksbn tue morning but conditions are not favorable
and most hi-res now shows it missing the terminal. will leave
in a prob30 for now but that could be removed.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 7 am est tuesday for inz005>009-
017-018-024>027-032>034-116-216.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est /6 am cst/ tuesday for
inz012>015-020-022-023-103-104-203-204.
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 am est tuesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 012359
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
659 pm est mon dec 1 2025

.key messages...

- light accumulating snow tonight. south of m-59, 1 to 3 inches of
accumulation expected, with monroe county seeing the highest total.
north of m-59, just a dusting to maybe a half an inch.

- temperatures will remain well below normal throughout the week. the
coldest conditions arrive thursday and friday with wind chill
values bottoming out at or below zero.

- arctic front will bring the potential for snow showers late
wednesday, with some minor accumulation possible.

&&

.aviation...

snowfall is lifting across the mi/oh state line as another quick-
hitting system arrives tonight. still a lot of dry air to overcome
in the lower portion of the column this evening before ceilings and
visibilities drop into mvfr territory. expect initial flurries to
begin within the next 90 minutes for dtw/yip, expanding to the
remaining terminals sequentially. the heart of the associated
moisture remains well to the south, over the tennessee valley,
tonight and tomorrow morning. this leads to a notable difference in
snowfall and flight restrictions from south to north. longer
duration for mvfr, including several hours of ifr, are most likely
for the southern sites. peak snowfall rates and visibility
reductions should occur between 02z and 05z. visibilities recover
before ceilings do tuesday morning with potential for ifr stratus
into the midday hours. weak gradient flow with light and variable
winds overnight, perhaps calm for a portion of the event. low clouds
scatter out tuesday afternoon.

for dtw... conditions decrease rapidly into ifr later this evening
with a 02z snow onset time on schedule and a 2 inch accumulation the
most likely number at dtw. snow ends around 12z tuesday morning
while mvfr lingers through midday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft after 01z and most of tuesday.

* high for precipitation type as snow tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 242 pm est mon dec 1 2025

discussion...

extremely dry airmass in place over southeast michigan this morning,
as 12z dtx sounding indicated a pw value of 0.11 inches, right
around the daily min record.

thick canopy of high clouds today, coupled with the cold start, has
resulted in temps holding around 30 degrees for the afternoon, a
good 10 degrees below normal.

still looking a light snow developing this evening/tonight with
decent moisture advection, height falls/upper level pv advection,
and mid level frontal circulation. top down saturation process may
take much of the evening to saturate the low levels however.
specific humidity in the 850-700 mb layer still on track to rise to
1.3 g/kg north to 1.75 g/kg along the southern michigan border.
despite some of the weak forcing(9-12 hr)/moisture being used up to
saturate the low levels, snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches are
expected south of m-59. areas which look to reach 3 inches is monroe
county and possibly southern wayne county, as the flow at the sfc to
925 mb is light southeast off of lake erie, which should help
accelerate the moistening of the low levels and enhance the qpf a
bit. north of m-59, pronounced surface ridging holding on through
the night, and would expect accumulations a half an inch or less.

shortwave ridging on tuesday with the next arctic front still on
track to move through late wednesday as a strong shortwave/spoke of
energy around the strong polar low near/over hudson bay rotates
through the northern great lakes wednesday night. with a little
moisture flux off lake michigan and good low level convergence with
the front, do think a line of snow showers will develop. low level
lapse rates steepen up and some modest cape is generated, which will
flirt with the dgz. as such, could become a borderline scenario for
snow squalls, as there does look to be 40 knots of flow at 850 mb.
exact timing of front and magnitude of the cold air sweeping in will
determine. right now, 850 mb temps progged to drop into the
-15 to -20 c range over the central great lakes thursday morning,
per 12z euro. temps likely hold in the lower 20s during thursday,
setting us up for mins of zero to 10 above thursday night. short
lived warming (but still below normal) ahead of another arctic front
on track to move through for the first half of the weekend, but
uncertainty with the southward push and how fast it washes out.

marine...

high pressure will continue to push off towards the east and away
from the great lakes this afternoon, while maintaining light winds
across the southern half of the region. over the northern great
lakes, persistent southwest flow will continue through tonight as
the broad low pressure system continues to reside over the hudson
bay region. a system trailing the high crosses the ohio valley late
this afternoon into tuesday offering light snow chances but
otherwise brings minimal local marine impacts. next significant
system arrives wednesday as a strong arctic cold front drops out of
northern ontario resulting in both strong preceding southwest winds
and trailing northwesterly winds as the coldest air of the season
thus far moves over the great lakes. currently, greatest chances
(~40-50%) at seeing gusts to gales occur during the preceding
southwest aided by longer fetch over the central portions huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk/ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
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