Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
631
fxus61 kcle 031144
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
744 am edt fri jul 3 2026

.what has changed...
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area later today. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) of severe weather for the entire area on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dangerous heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot this weekend.

2) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later
today with better opportunities for rainfall this weekend into
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
we have one more day today of very hot and humid weather
conditions before we start to see some relief. there are already
signs that the "heat dome" which has been over the ohio valley
and mid-atlantic region is beginning to break down and shift
southward away from our area. there are some scattered
convection just northwest of our area this morning which is one
indication that the ridge of high pressure is weakening.

as for today, isolated to widely scattered convection over
southern lower michigan may track across lake erie later this
morning and skirt by our lakeshore. this weaker convection may
leave out an out flow boundary for new showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon and push further into northern ohio
and nwpa. high temperatures will climb back into the middle to
upper 90s areawide. the heat index will once again be between
100 and 107 degrees this afternoon. the ongoing extreme heat
warning for northern ohio and heat advisory for nwpa looks good
at this time with no changes needed. due to added cloud cover
and higher pops this weekend, high temperatures will not be as
hot in the middle 80s to low 90s. more seasonable warm
temperatures are expected to continue through much of next week
with daily highs in the middle to upper 80s.

key message 2...
our rain chances will gradually increase starting this afternoon
and evening as the area becomes more influenced by the
westerly flow over the top of the exiting ridge of high
pressure. afternoon and evening pops will increase between 30 to
50 percent later today. widely scattered convection will be
possible across much of the area later today in the vicinity of
residual outflows from overnight activity and local lake breeze
enhancement. deep layer shear and flow will support the
potential for a few strong clusters of convection which may
produce damaging wind gusts. spc has the entire area in a slight
risk later today for severe storms with damaging wind gusts as
the main threat.

pops will increase to likely for much of the area saturday
afternoon and evening. now this does not mean a complete wash
out for july 4th plans, but it does mean that there will likely
be scattered showers and storms throughout the afternoon and
evening. spc has the area in a marginal risk day 2 outlook for a
few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts on
saturday. the best chance of pops and more widespread chances
for showers and storms will be on sunday. pops will increase
between 75 and 90 percent sunday afternoon and evening. a couple
stronger storms with damaging wind gusts may also be possible.
the airmass will be very moist this weekend with pwats of 1.5 to
2 inches. any convection that is slow moving or training over
the same area will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall both saturday and sunday.

an upper level trough will continue to slowly track eastward
across the great lakes region on monday with an associated cold
front. pops will remain high monday for scattered convection.
slightly drier weather will follow by the middle of next week
before rain chances increase again towards the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is expected to prevail through the tafs outside of
convection. upstream activity has dissipated this morning,
leaving a clean slate to start the day. a few storms may try
developing along a lake breeze boundary northeast of cleveland
early to mid-afternoon, potentially impacting eri. otherwise,
scattered storms are favored to develop across far northern ohio
or lake erie along an old outflow boundary late this afternoon
into this evening and move east-southeast into the area, before
dissipating and/or exiting late evening into the overnight.
confidence in impacts to any given terminal remains on the
lower side, as widespread thunderstorms are not expected and
forcing is weak. the signal appears solid enough to go with a
tempo at tol, with continued vcsh and prob30 groups at the other
terminals. expect more refinement as confidence in terminals
potentially impacted vs not increases. we should then be dry
and vfr for most of tonight, but will need to watch for
additional clusters of showers/storms to arrive from the west-
northwest late tonight into early saturday. for now confidence
is too low to include in any tafs, but future cycles may need to
add something after roughly 9z saturday.

winds will be out of the west-southwest and under 15kt through
the period outside of any convection. locally stronger wind
gusts over 40kt may occur in/near thunderstorms.

outlook...occasional shower and storm potential continues this
weekend ahead of a cold front. weak low pressure moves overhead
sunday night into monday, continuing occasional shower/thunder
potential and possibly bringing non-vfr ceilings.

&&

.marine...
winds will remain generally southerly or southwesterly at under
15kt through sunday, keeping waves in the 1 to 2 foot range.
lake breezes will flip winds a bit more onshore each afternoon,
especially northeast of cleveland, which may push choppiness
into the nearshore waters. occasional potential for
thunderstorms exists this afternoon through the weekend. briefly
higher winds and waves will accompany any thunderstorms over the
lake. low pressure tracks over or just south of lake erie
sunday night into monday, bringing winds around to a more
easterly and then northerly direction at 15kt or less. this will
push some choppiness into the nearshore waters, but expected to
remain below headline criteria through the forecast.

&&

.climate...
dangerous heat and humidity is expected again today. record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
302
fxus63 kiwx 031726
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

.key messages...

- the extreme heat warning continues through this evening across
northwest ohio, along with portions of northern indiana mainly
east of i-69 and south of us 24. a heat advisory is is effect
elsewhere. heat indices will range from the upper 90s to
around 105 (highest in the warning area).

- there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather this
afternoon into this evening, with the greatest potential of
severe storms from 3pm edt to 11pm edt. damaging wind gusts,
lightning, and locally heavy rain are the main threats, but
isolated large hail cannot be ruled out.

- hot and humid for the 4th of july with up to 70% chances for
showers and storms. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. isolated storms are most likely from 2pm
edt to 11pm edt. with isolated damaging wind gusts, heavy
rain, and lightning as the main threats. an isolated severe
storm may exist once again sunday afternoon, but confidence is
lower.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 357 am edt fri jul 3 2026

outflow dominated convective complex is progressing across northwest
indiana into southwest lower michigan early this morning. a few
outflow boundaries have passed across northwest portions of the
forecast area early this morning. this outflow is helping to sustain
convection early this morning as it approaches the south bend area,
along with a pocket of enhanced 30-40 knots of effective shear via
some convective enhancement of the short wave. this convective
complex does still have a 2500 j/kg mlcape axis to work with across
far northern in/southern lower mi this morning, although some weak
downstream mlcin will continue to develop through the remainder of
the overnight. forcing with the outflow will likely be enough to
overcome this weak cin however, which could very well allow for
eastward maintenance of the convection through most of far northern
indiana and souther lower michigan. these storms are not expected to
be severe this morning with a possibility of some isolated
gusts to 40 to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall. 0-3km shear
vectors are somewhat impressive (southwest around 30 knots)
which could pose some concern for brief mesovort, but increasing
elevated/outflow dominant nature of this complex should lessen
severe potential this morning.

the am storms will leave behind an outflow boundary that could serve
as a focus for isolated-scattered storm development after 18z this
afternoon, although bulk of cam guidance does still maintain later
timing toward 20z and beyond as another convectively enhanced short
wave emerges from ia/central plains. impressive instability
profiles (mlcapes on order of 2500-3000 j/kg) will be in place
this afternoon and approach of this short wave toward evening
could also enhance convection along remnant outflows. shear
profiles will be less favorable severe weather ingredient today,
with shear profiles gradually waning this morning with
departure of am vort max. one thing that may need to be watched
today is the potential for a favorable wet microburst
environment given high capes and steep 0- 3km lapse rates. some
relatively drier mid level theta-e air may also be working along
northwest periphery of the suppressed mid level ridge that
could enhanced sfc to mid level theta-e differentials for some
localized microbursts, particularly if convection can develop
during the afternoon to early evening hours. a slight risk of
severe storms (level 2 of 5) has been maintained today with
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain still appearing as
the main threats. given low shear environment, outflows from
late afternoon/early evening convection may sustain some renewed
convective development through the overnight hours given slow
moving nature to upstream short wave.

some indications for saturday that some very subtle mid level height
rises could develop for first part of the day in wake of the short
wave/mcv late tonight. this does lead to some low confidence in
convective evolution for saturday. shear profiles should be
marginal, with moderate afternoon instability still likely. a
trigger is somewhat murky at this forecast distance, with old
outflows possibly playing some role once again. this setup still
supports a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for saturday afternoon/early
evening with once again an isolated wind threat.

some consideration was given to extending heat headlines into
saturday for far south/southeast areas, but complications from
convective potential and derived heat indices from forecast
grids yielding peak afternoon heat indices around 100 across
these locations argue for maintaining heat headlines as is for
now.

predictability in convective details drops off further for sunday
and monday as a pair of synoptic waves will likely undergo some
convective modification once again, but overall pattern and timing
of this forcing would support isolated-scattered convection again on
sunday. instability will likely be more limited on sunday in
comparison to today and saturday, and with persistence of marginal
shear profiles, an isolated severe threat is of lower confidence on
sunday.

scattered pops were maintained for monday although recent guidance
trends could result in quicker transition to dry conditions as
negative height anomaly begins to shift off to the east.
temps/humidity levels should transition to more seasonable
levels for early next week. additional shower and storm chances
still look good later in the week as a series of pacific waves
and slightly stronger northern tier westerlies shifts into the
great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 125 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

the ridge of high pressure across the southeastern us buckles today
allowing an increased chance for showers and storms. the chance
moves into the sbn by around 20 or 21z and closer to 22z or 23z at
fwa so will have some mvfr conditions to account for that, but there
could also be some ifr conditions due to the heavy rain potential. a
period of sustained winds reaching 10 to 12 kts occurs this
afternoon before relaxing this evening. stronger storms should be
out of the area by around 3z. however, more storms that could
still be strong may re-enter/reform there not too long
afterwards as another disturbance moves into the area. will also
handle this chance with another prob30 group.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for inz009-
017-018-022>027-032>034.
heat advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt saturday for
inz009-017-018-022>027-032>034.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
heat advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt saturday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
339
fxus63 kdtx 031044
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
644 am edt fri jul 3 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid conditions will persist through friday afternoon.

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast from late tonight
through friday night. there is a chance for strong to severe storms
through this period.

- locally heavy rain and minor flooding is possible late friday and
friday night due to thunderstorms.

- while temperatures will be less hot and more seasonable this
weekend, the chances for showers and thunderstorms, with an isolated
risk for strong to severe storms, will continue saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation...

remnant early morning convection over west mi is rapidly decaying as
it pushes east likely at best only offering a brief light
shower/drizzle near the start of the new forecast period for fnt. vfr
conditions remain in place today with cloud cover above 5kft.
thunderstorm chances begin to increase late afternoon as a series of
disturbances ride into the region as the ridge partially flattens.
that said, confidence in timing and overall coverage is low due to
weak overall forcing. high res models are all over the map so have
added prob30 groups for ptk south this evening where confidence is
slightly higher in some activity developing.

d21/dtw convection... isolated to scattered storms potentially
develop this evening near the detroit terminals. confidence in exact
coverage and timing is low but currently window of `best` chances
looks to be 22-02z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorm potential late this afternoon into early
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 336 am edt fri jul 3 2026

discussion...

there`s been a shift in the longwave pattern the last day or so with
the strong upper low locked over central canada shifting eastward
and shearing out a bit across ontario and quebec. this in turn is
flattening the ridge over the great lakes and forcing the highest
heights southward as more zonal flow builds over the region. the
resident heat dome will linger over the area one more day though
increased chances of convection and additional cloud cover will lead
to slightly improved conditions over the previous few days. this
will also force the upper level jet southward across lower mi as
well which will lead to high pops and possible rounds of convection.

residual heat across the region with 850mb temps around 20c and
500mb heights around 590dam will lead to another hot day. overnight
temps will again hold into the mid 70s which will help warm to the
low to mid 90s once again. dewpoints still in the low to mid 70s
today as well will result in heat indices from about 95 (north) to
105 (south). compounding effects of several days of excessive heat
will make these slightly improved conditions for some location still
dangerous. this lead to another extreme heat warning being issued
for most of se mi. a few counties north of m46 are farther north of
the outflow boundaries located across southern lower mi now so
dewpoints and temps will be a bit lower and it was decided to go
with a heat advisory for those counties.

cooler temps are on the way for the weekend as convective outflows
push the heat and humidity further southward. highs will remain in
the 80s through the upcoming week, dipping to the low 80s by monday
before rising back to near 90 by mid week. but dewpoints down into
the 60s should make it feel more bearable.

as mentioned, convective chances are on the rise today and tomorrow
as the jet axis drops over the region and outflow boundaries reside
over the area as well. unstable atmosphere with around 2500 j/kg of
cape and some shear today around 20 knots (increasing to 30 knots
saturday) will help scattered storms get going along these
boundaries. pwats will be up around 2 inches and dewpoints in the
70s so plenty of moisture to work with, and as we saw in chicago
tonight, if storms can line up along a boundary we could get some
flooding concerns due to heavy rain. current activity tonight,
though weakening, will help keep the boundary across the south to
focus storms there. spc day 1 outlook highlights the state line with
the slight risk area with marginal across the rest of the area. any
storm could be strong to severe with moisture loading causing strong
downbursts and storm tops around 50kft have been presenting some
hail threat as well. cams are all over the place trying to produce
storms and mcss. hard to put any timing into the forecast outside of
stating the best timing looks to be first this morning across mid mi
tied to the convection west of lake mi tracking up that way though
should be weakening. then most models have a weak mid level trough
passing through this evening.

long wave trough tied to the low over quebec will try to pivot down
through the region saturday keeping convective chances going though
the day. strongest instability should be pushed south of the state
but models do still build around 2000 j/kg of cape with decent mid
level lapse rates and some shear. so cannot rule out some stronger
storms again.

marine...

a stalled frontal boundary is draped across the northern great lakes
where it will remain over the next 24 hours before beginning to sink
farther south on saturday. to the south of this boundary is a warm
and unstable air mass that will provide the fuel for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and saturday.
isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, capable of producing
wind gusts in excess of 34 kt. prevailing wind will be from the
southwest at 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt in the
shallower nearshore waters. as the cold front settles south on
saturday, wind direction will shift to north and northeast then veer
east by sunday. the unsettled pattern is likely to persist sunday
into monday as a weak low traverses the region, but ambient wind
magnitude is forecast to remain light.

hydrology...

clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and
tonight. while there is some uncertainty as to the location of the
more persistent thunderstorms, current forecast indications are that
locations south of the i-69 corridor have the better potential for
thunderstorms. if thunderstorms do development, they are most likely
to become oriented west to east with a good chance for storms to
train over the same area. there is expected to be a wide range in
rainfall totals across the region. localized areas of one inch or
more of rain is possible in areas that see the persistent
thunderstorm activity. rainfall rates in these areas are likely to
reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. if these storms set up over urbanized
areas, localized flooding is possible. additional periods of showers
and thunderstorms are forecast saturday and sunday, which will add
to rainfall totals. higher amounts will again be localized.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-053>055.

extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...drk
marine.......tf
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.