Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
776
fxus61 kcle 241103
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
703 am edt fri apr 24 2026

.what has changed...
some minor timing adjustments for the convection today, and a slight
increase in low end pop coverage prior to the main line with the
cold front late this evening into tonight.

&&

.key messages...
1) a lingering stationary front followed by a cold front brings shower
and storm chances to the cwa later today and into tonight.

2) high pressure this weekend followed by another low pressure
system/cold front monday night through tuesday which brings the next
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a stationary front will linger over far ne oh/nw pa today as low
pressure and a cold front move in from the northwest. warm sector
dewpoints in the 50s today with temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s areawide equates to marginal instability but still enough
for a convective threat today. impeding the threat to some degree
will be a decaying low level jet as the system approaches and sharp
upper level ridging. for the afternoon hours, there will be a
modest amount of elevated cape along with the troughing at the
surface which could result in some afternoon convection, but the
main limiting factor is the amount of dry air in the column rising
air would have to overcome. this is a low threat overall through the
afternoon hours, but not zero, and have a large coverage of slight
chance pops during this time frame. the main batch of convection
will be later in the evening when the flow aloft abruptly turns
southwesterly and some upper level support finally comes into the
mix. however, as mentioned previously, the lower level dynamics will
be phasing out, and only a sliver of the low level jet will remain,
around 30-35kts. with just enough 0-6km bulk shear around 25-30kts
and column rh increasing, some organized convection with a wind
threat is possible. this wind threat may be most likely to occur at
the onset later this evening as inverted v soundings will dominate
the boundary layer structure prior to the saturating in
precipitation. some pops linger into saturday without a thunder
threat with the exiting of the low pressure system. temperatures
fall off 10-20 degrees from friday to saturday.

key message 2...
high pressure builds through the weekend with the cooler
temperatures, rebounding again monday ahead of the next low
pressure system. upper level ridging returns monday, and this is
when the warm air advection will really begin to take hold
again. temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s for
monday, and low pressure moving in from southwest for late
monday into monday night. this is the next convective chance for
the cwa with possibly better organization as it looks to be a
stronger overall surface system, but these details will come out
in subsequent forecasts. temperatures drop for the middle/end
of the week in what could be an extended period of normal to
slightly cooler than normal weather.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
widespread vfr conditions are expected to continue for much of
today ahead of a cold front that will impact the area this
evening. showers and storms associated with this boundary should
begin to impact western terminals near 20z before spreading
east. there is higher confidence in thunder potential further
west, however opted to put in at least vcts at most terminals
into the overnight hours. diminished visibilities are possible,
especially within the strongest storms, but should rebound to
vfr. conditions will begin to decline post front as caa pushes
over the area and both ceilings and visibilities begin diminish
to at least mvfr conditions with patchy fog possible at
terminals where precipitation has ended.

winds tonight will be light and variable before increasing to
5-10 knots from the southwest this afternoon. the exception will
be kcle and keri which have the potential to be impacted by a
light lake breeze. confidence is not as high at kcle compared to
keri, but given the late timing of the front, it is possible.
behind the boundary winds will remain 5-10 knots but shift to
northwesterly.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
possible this afternoon through saturday morning and again on
monday.

&&

.marine...
east to northeast winds of 5-10 knots will impact lake erie
today, allowing waves to build to 1-2 feet across the central
and western basins. a cold front will push east this evening
into the overnight hour, allowing for winds to gain a more
northerly component but remains 5-10 knots. these conditions are
expected to persist through the weekend before winds ramp up in
association with a strong low pressure system that moves through
the western great lakes region for the start of next week. winds
look to increase to 15-20 knots for a period of time late monday
into tuesday, which may need a small craft advisory.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
061
fxus63 kiwx 241042
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am edt fri apr 24 2026

.key messages...

- marginally severe storms possible late today and early
tonight.

- above to much above normal temperatures near 70 to around 80
through monday.

- dry this weekend then numerous chances for rain next week
with the best chance for rain monday night.

- additional rainfall next week is likely to prolong river
flooding and keep numerous rivers above "action" stage.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 315 am edt fri apr 24 2026

an upper level disturbance associated with a cold front will
move east across the forecast area late today and tonight.
precipitable water values will increase rapidly with the
highest values in the pw axis that will be translating over the
forecast area between 1.2 to 1.5 inches. these high values
support rainfall rates that are likely to reach up to 3"/hr;
however, the storms should be moving fast enough to limit the
flood/flash flood potential. in addition to the flood potential,
there is a damaging wind threat. the storm prediction center
has expanded the "marginal" severe risk west to include almost
the entire forecast area. bufkit soundings indicate parcels
should reach an eql of about 25k feet. unidirectional flow with
daytime heating favors wind gusts reaching between 45 to 55 mph
with the stronger storms between 3p and 9p edt.

unseasonably mild weather will persist through saturday. gfs
temperature anomalies on the 00z run reach as highs as +10c.
these temperature anomalies support high from around 70 to 80
degrees. a mild but wet pattern is farther ahead early next
week as upper level disturbances eject east and northeast out of
some deeper troffing upstream. the model blend has the highest
chances for rain monday night.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 642 am edt fri apr 24 2026

initial line of convection dissipating as expected given diurnal
instability minimum and lack of good forcing. a few showers
possible around ksbn during the next few hours but no impact
anticipated. better chance for thunderstorms (esp at kfwa)
arrives with cold front this afternoon/early evening. vfr will
persist outside of any thunderstorms, though.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
592
fxus63 kdtx 241053
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
653 am edt fri apr 24 2026

.key messages...

- warm today with highs in the 70s (60s near the lakeshore).

- numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the
strongest storms capable of producing isolated wind gusts up to 60
mph and localized heavy downpours.

- drier this weekend with seasonable temps.

- showers and thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions this morning as mid to high clouds are increasing down
stream of a low pressure system and cold front moving across the
midwest. models combined with the radar observations this morning
point towards a low chance for scattered showers this morning, enough
to keep mention out for now as activity should be isolated enough to
leave mention out of the tafs at this time. cold front progression
will bring likely showers with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening focused mostly between 18 and 02z. following the front
will be mvfr to ifr ceilings/vsbys as trapped low moisture supports
low clouds and patchy fog across southeast michigan tonight into
tomorrow morning.

for dtw...greatest thunderstorm potential across dtw currently will
be between 19z and 01z a the line of strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms move through. damaging wind gusts and locally heavy
downpours are the main threats.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate to high for thunderstorms this afternoon-evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 325 am edt fri apr 24 2026

discussion...

longwave ridging over the great lakes is beginning to break down
this morning as a broad closed low centered over southern
saskatchewan sends a lobe of vorticity across the midwest. a theta-e
ridge is advecting in on low- to mid-level southwest flow and will
set the stage for a couple opportunities for convection today. the
first is focused between 8am and noon as the decaying llj works in
to provide a 20 to 40% chance of showers. a rumble of thunder can`t
be ruled out for any more vigorous cells, but shallow convective
depths will preclude a thunder mention in the forecast later this
morning.

today will be another unseasonably warm and humid day as we sit
within the warm sector of a surface low that tracks across the lower
peninsula this evening. high temps are forecast to reach some 15 to
20 degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 70s for much of the
area. dew points likewise rise to around 60, promoting modest
afternoon/evening instability west of i-75. southeast wind will
dominate areas east of i-75 which keeps areas downwind of the lakes
cooler and more stable; highs mainly in the 60s.

the second round of convection, driven by pva working in atop the
inbound cold front, spreads across the area 4pm to 10pm. this period
carries much higher confidence in precip occurrence and coverage (70-
90%) given the frontal forcing, and thunder will be more probable
given modest instability. sbcape progs have trended up slightly with
the latest guidance (500 to 1000 j/kg), supportive of some strong to
marginally severe storms. weak bulk 0-6km wind shear (aob 20 kt)
will be a limiting factor, but may be sufficient for some
organization into multicell clusters along the front. spc day 1
marginal outlook aligns with available hi-res ensemble and ml
guidance which offers a low probability for wind gusts of 40 to 60
mph in the strongest storms. greatest potential for this will be
west of i-75 where the most instability and steepest low-level lapse
rates near will develop. the humid environment with pwat peaking
near 1.25 inches and relatively slow storm motion will support heavy
downpours and potential for localized minor flooding, particularly
if any urban areas see repeated storms.

the cold front pushes through during the late evening and overnight
which allows coverage of showers and storms to wane after 10pm.
marine layer augmented low-level moisture will get trapped beneath
the developing frontal inversion, bringing potential for patchy fog
and/or drizzle after midnight into saturday morning. cooler post-
frontal north to northeast flow persists through the rest of the
day, promoting mainly overcast skies and temps more characteristic
of late april, peaking in the 50s and lower 60s. shortwave ridging
strengthens overhead into sunday to maintain dry and seasonable
weather as surface high pressure extends south from northern
ontario/quebec.

upper low remains nearly stationary over the canadian prairie over
the weekend, eventually beginning to dislodge monday into tuesday.
this process helps eject a shortwave from the four corners into the
great lakes monday night into tuesday which serves as the next
window for convection. consensus of guidance tracks the ensuing
surface low northeast across the midwest and places se mi within a
narrow warm sector nearing occlusion monday night. strong pva signal
offers relatively high confidence in showers and thunderstorms
during this period. longwave troughing then looks to set up across
the region which points to a period of cooler conditions through the
rest of the week.

marine...

a warm front will continue to lift over great lakes region into the
morning. a low pressure system over the upper midwest will move into
the northern great lakes through the day and into saturday. this
will bring chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
region during this time as the cold front pushes through. ahead of
the low on friday, southeasterly winds strengthen with gusts around
30 kts over the northern most waters of lake huron as winds funnel
towards the straits. a few gusts to gales will be possible midday
but are mainly expected to focus within the nearshore waters.
another high pressure then builds in through the day on saturday and
through the remainder of the weekend.

hydrology...

a cold front tracks across southeast mi this evening into the
overnight hours, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. basin average rainfall amounts
are forecast to range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, although
localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible for any areas
that see repeated rounds of storms. ponding of water on roadways and
minor rises on streams and rivers will be the main impacts, but
localized minor flooding in urban and low lying areas cannot ruled
out.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...tf
marine.......ss
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.