Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
746
fxus61 kcle 161140
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 am edt sun aug 16 2026

.what has changed...
the risk for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall is
decreasing, due to highest rainfall amount displaced just south
of our forecast area. therefore, the flood watch has been
cancelled. heavy rain will still likely accompany scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and could pose an isolated,
localized flash flood risk.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this
evening with heavy rain potentially leading to localized
flooding. a few stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

2) a line of showers and thunderstorms will move southeast
across the area on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
latest satellite imagery shows an mcv located over the central
portion of our forecast area. scattered rain showers accompany
this mcv and will continue through the this morning before the
mcv departs to the east by sunrise. very limited instability
should prevent additional heavy rain and subsequent flash flood
threat through most of this morning. therefore, the flood watch
has been cancelled a few hours early.

another shortwave is working its way across northern illinois
and will become the focus for additional convective development
this afternoon. most hi-res models are keying in convection
beginning to develop near the i-75 corridor early this
afternoon, and growing upscale as it moves eastward across the
rest of the area. sufficient build-up of moderate instability
and the presence of deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should
support a marginal severe weather threat. strong gusty winds
will be the primary severe weather hazard.

an extremely humid airmass characterized by pwat in the 2-2.25"
range and surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will support
efficient, heavy rainfall within any thunderstorm that traverses
the area. progressive nature of convection this afternoon should
prevent a widespread flooding issue, but particularly vulnerable
areas (such as urban areas, or locations that have received
excessive rainfall in the past few days) could pose a localized
flash flood risk.

isolated to scattered rain showers will linger sunday night
into monday morning across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania.

key message 2...
a cold front will move southeastward across the area on
wednesday, with a line of showers thunderstorms moving impacting
the region. confidence continues to increase in area/timing,
with pops increasing to 60-80% areawide, particularly during the
afternoon hours. severe weather is a possibility, though its
questionable how much instability there will be to work with.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
patchy fog and low stratus are present across the area and
currently have a mixed bag of flight conditions early this
morning. conditions should improve throughout the morning,
although patchy mvfr/ifr may persist through the remainder of
the morning. the next round of showers and storms will push
east into the vicinity of ktol/kfdy by mid to late morning
before reaching eastern terminals by late afternoon. there is
still uncertainty in the exact timing and placement of
showers/storms so have prevailing showers with prob30 groups for
thunderstorms for the time being. any afternoon/evening showers
and storms could produce non-vfr ceilings and visibilities. low
clouds and lake-enhanced rain showers will most likely develop
at eastern terminals behind the precip this evening, which would
produce non-vfr conditions.

winds will shift to the southwest this morning into this
afternoon with sustained winds increasing to about 10 knots this
afternoon. periodic gusts to 20 knots are possible this
afternoon into early this evening, primarily at ktol/kfdy/kmfd.
wind gusts may be variable and higher in thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening. winds will become westerly after
00z before shifting to the northwest towards the end of the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and lower
ceilings across ne oh and nw pa through early monday morning.
non-vfr possible wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
winds on lake erie will shift to the southwest and increase to
10 to 15 knots during the day today before becoming
northwesterly behind a cold front by early monday morning. flow
briefly becomes light and variable late monday into early
tuesday and expect southwest flow between 10 and 15 knots
tuesday evening into early wednesday morning. winds will then
shift to the northwest and diminish behind another cold front
during the day wednesday. light onshore flow is expected for
much of thursday. at this point, marine headlines are not
expected over the next few days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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259
fxus63 kiwx 161740
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
140 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon through
tonight. a few strong storms capable of gusty winds may be
possible south of us 24.

- dry monday and tuesday with highs in the upper 70s.

- the next chances for rain and storms arrive tuesday night into
wednesday. at this time, the severe weather and flooding risks
are very low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 101 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

while satellite and radar trends shows diminishing showers early
this afternoon, widely scattered showers and storms are expected
to redevelop this afternoon and evening, pivoting around the
axis of an area of low pressure centered over lower michigan.
while i can`t completely rule out the chances for a strong to
severe storm this afternoon and evening south of us 24,
confidence is very low. moderately instability is favorable for
thunderstorm development, but shear and lapse rates are poor.
this will likely end up being a similar scenario to yesterday
where clusters of storms may produce brief gusty winds but not
reach severe thresholds. cams show one final round of scattered
showers and storms this evening into tonight developing over
northwest indiana with a weak trailing cold front, but rain and
storm chances will come to an end by daybreak monday. clouds are
expected to linger overnight and clearing will commence behind
the frontal passage.

there is high confidence that our active weather pattern finally
comes to an end! monday and tuesday will be dry as an area of high
pressure builds into and across the great lakes. temperatures will
be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
dewpoints on monday and tuesday during peak diurnal heating hours
will only be in the low to mid 60s, which will feel much more
refreshing than our past week of low to mid 70s dewpoints!

as troughing builds over the eastern us and an upper level ridge
builds over the western us, another chance for rain and storms comes
tuesday night into wednesday as a cold front slides from northwest
to southeast through our forecast area. as of now the risks for
flooding and severe weather are low, but i would not be surprised if
our forecast area is added into future spc outlooks as wednesday
gets closer. particularly, along and south of us 30 may be at risk
for isolated damaging wind gusts wednesday as the timing of the
frontal passage coincides with peak diurnal heating, although
confidence is low at this time.

high pressure then builds into the great lakes and midwest regions
again by the end of the week into next weekend. temperatures
remain near to just slightly below normal with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees through the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 137 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

modest mid-level disturbance is passing through ahead of a cold
front approaching northern il. thinning clouds ahead of these
features may foster isolated to scattered showers. confidence is
medium at best, thus, have limited this to a prob30. wind
settles down tonight and becomes northerly perhaps letting mvfr
stratus seep in from the north. the cold front clears the area
late in the taf period with any mvfr to ifr flight conditions
improving.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 161745
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
145 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered shower and thunderstorm chances this morning into early
evening mainly along/south of i-69. torrential rainfall and minor
localized flooding possible with any storm.

- additional scattered shower chances mainly north of i-69,
particularly in the thumb, this evening-early tonight as a cold
front crosses.

- dry, seasonably average conditions for the early week period.

- shower and storm chances return tuesday night into wednesday with
the arrival of the next cold front.

&&

.aviation...

convective system was exiting southeast michigan with the bulk of
the showers east of the taf sites. there remains a chance of showers
through the afternoon and early evening between that system and the
cold front across the straights area. plenty of low level moisture
this afternoon with mvfr ceilings across most of lower mi are ever
so slowly lifting with some breaks in the clouds. expect only slight
improvements for the rest of the afternoon. will keep most areas
mvfr ceilings although there could be brief periods of vfr ceilings.

once the front moves through the region between 00z and 06z, winds
turn from the west and become northwest or even nnw generally 5 to
10 knots. this wind should be enough to keep fog from forming. there
could be a brief break in the clouds, but there is low level
moisture to bring back ceiling between 1k and 2k feet after 06z.
this cloud deck lifts to a bkn cumulus ceiling around 3k feet monday
morning.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance for thundestorms through early
this evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet through the overnight.

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 am edt sun aug 16 2026

discussion...

ongoing convection across northern il/in is tied to the arrival of a
central plains shortwave that will slide along mi`s southern border
over the rest of the morning/early afternoon. while the majority of
convection is again expected south of the state where the stalled
frontal boundary resides, reinforcing moisture and modest mid-level
ascent supports scattered am shower chances over the southern half
of se mi. thunder chances during the morning activity will be quite
limited due to the lack of available instability (mucape <500j/kg).
this gradually changes by afternoon however as ongoing moisture
advection pushes surface dewpoints into the the lower 70s allowing
diurnal heating to generate mlcape between 1000-1500j/kg. increasing
instability combined with the modest synoptic support from the
passing shortwave supports scattered convective showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon, mainly along/south of i-69
given the location of the wave. severe storms are unlikely as weak
column winds keep shear sub-30kts in addition to abysmal mid-level
lapse aob 6 c/km. pwats in excess of 2" and warm cloud layers near
15kft however do offer the threat of torrential rainfall. that said,
the progressive nature of any convection plus the dry summer thus
far should keep flooding more localized to the typical floodprone
urban/low lying areas. storm chances wane by early evening in the
south as the shortwave departs east; though the arrival of a cold
front dropping out of northern mi shifts scattered shower chances
towards the northern half of se mi, particularly the thumb, this
evening-early tonight. late arrival in the diurnal window likely
keeps thunder more isolated.

passage of the aforementioned tonight ushers in a more seasonably
average airmass as dewpoints and 850mb temps return to around 60f
and lower teens c, respectively. as such, pleasant early week in
store with highs in the lower to mid 80s monday-tuesday and sunnier
skies.

broad hudson bay upper trough sends another cold front into the
great lakes midweek. currently, frontal timing and associated
preceding showers favored to work across se mi late tuesday night-
wednesday. cooler air follows to close out the work week with 850mb
temps hovering around 10c keeping highs slightly below normal by the
latter part of august standards.

marine...

as low pressure tracks north of the area it will push a cold front
through the central great lakes region later today and tonight.
ahead of the front, south winds prevail for much of the day around
10 to 20 knots. behind the cold front, northwest winds fill in and
increase across lake huron, and eventually down through lake st.
clair and the michigan waters of lake erie late tonight. the
strongest winds are expected across lake huron, especially the open
waters with 20-25 knot winds expected late sunday evening into early
monday morning. thus, will need to keep an eye on the wave forecast
and the potential for small craft advisories for nearshore waters
across the tip of the thumb of michigan. showers and thunderstorms
will be possible as this system moves through today through tonight.
the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the cold front later
this evening.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon edt monday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....rbp
discussion...kdk
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.