Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
741 am edt sat may 16 2026

.what has changed...
timing of rain has slowed by a couple hours this morning. trended
high temperatures down slightly today and warmer on sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected today with a
lesser chance on sunday.

2) temperatures warm through the weekend, peaking with summer-like
conditions on monday and tuesday. a few locations may approach
record values.

3) potential for showers and thunderstorms return late tuesday into
wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
shortwave energy will lift northeast across the
area today with moisture advection focused around the ridge up the
mississippi and ohio valleys. early this morning we are watching
convection ongoing across lake michigan that will continue to track
to the northeast. in addition, scattered showers are starting to
spread northeast into the lower ohio valley where low level jet
energy is focused. while the airmass overhead is dry this morning,
significant theta-e advection up through 700mb is expected to spread
east across the local area by early afternoon. moistening of the
column will result in an expansion of showers, although latest model
trends from the 06z hrrr suggest it may be a couple hours slower
than previously thought. up to 500 j/kg of mu cape does spread
overhead this morning and could see a few elevated thunderstorms
through early afternoon. after that, timing of showers and
thunderstorms becomes a little more difficult and will be impacted
by the first round and ability to recover. the general thought is
for some modest instability to develop in nw ohio and see scattered
thunderstorms develop as stronger shortwave energy passes to the
north. development to the east is expected to continue through the
afternoon as the area is caught in a broad area of convergence
between energy moving around the ridge and the trough passing across
the upper great lakes. most of the area(excluding ne ohio and nw
pennsylvania) has been included in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. while not the most impressive set-up,
0-6km shear of 25-30 knots could be sufficient for a low end wind
threat with a few gusts of 50-60 mph possible later this afternoon.

the moisture axis will remain overhead on sunday morning and then
lift north as a warm front through the afternoon. weak convergence
along this axis could support additional scattered thunderstorms
across mainly the northern half of the area on sunday afternoon.

key message #2:
the flow aloft amplifies over the weekend with a ridge with
500mb height of 585 dm expanding north across lake erie. the
warm front will be located well north of the area on monday with
850mb temperatures of 16-18c overhead. while sunday will be
warm with temperatures in the mid 80s, monday and tuesday will
be hot as highs reach the upper 80s and possibly 90 degrees.
temperatures through the first half of may have averaged 6-8
degrees below normal so this first blast of summer heat will
feel quite warm. temperatures will even approach record values
at some locations on monday and tuesday (see the climate section
below). monday is expected to be dry and mostly sunny aside
from a very low chance pop in nw ohio. clouds and chances for
thunderstorms return on tuesday.

key message #3:
low pressure will track through the upper great lakes on
tuesday. most of the day will be dry but a prefrontal trough
associated with this feature could kick off showers and
thunderstorms on tuesday afternoon. timing will be impacted by
energy lifting out of the rocky mountain trough across the great
lakes region. potential for showers and thunderstorms continues
tuesday night into wednesday as the upper level ridge breaks
down with an eventual cold frontal passage on wednesday. highs
on wednesday are already forecast to be 10-12 degrees cooler on
wednesday but they may need to trend down based on timing of the
cold front.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr across the board as we approach 12z. a warm front will lift
east-northeast across the area through early this afternoon.
still am expecting at least scattered showers and perhaps a bit
of thunder to fill in along it, especially from cle-cak points
east. as a disturbance moves through shortly behind the warm
front, maintain some vicinity showers in most tafs through the
afternoon. it is uncertain how widespread any shower activity
will be and if there will be much thunder this afternoon, due to
the likelihood that clouds and rain arriving through this
morning will limit how much instability can build. the greatest
potential for showers and some thunder through the afternoon and
early evening will be at southern/southeastern terminals such
as cak and yng, though even here am only using a prob30 due to
lower confidence. shower/storm potential diminishes tonight.
there is some potential for lower ceilings/visibility to develop
late tonight/early sunday with a humid airmass building in and
light winds overnight, though confidence in ifr or lower
conditions is low. included some mvfr br at cak and yng for now.

winds will turn southwest today, increasing to 10-18kt with
gusts 20-25kt during the midday and afternoon hours. winds
become lighter and lose their gusts this evening and tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms sunday
afternoon and evening, though chances are lower. non-vfr likely
at times in showers/thunderstorms late tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
south to southwest winds in the 10-20kt range are expected over
the lake today. winds may be a bit gusty at times in the
nearshore late this morning and this afternoon...current
impression is any gustier winds will be too short-lived for a
small craft advisory, though trends will be monitored. either
way, waves up to 2 feet in the nearshore waters and 2 to 4 feet
in the open waters through early this evening. winds and waves
diminish tonight into early sunday, with winds turning more
easterly at under 15kt on sunday. winds turn back to a more
south to southwest direction monday and tuesday. winds will
generally be 10-20kt early this week over the lake, but will
need to watch for winds to briefly reach 20kt sustained with
higher gusts monday and tuesday afternoons, particularly in the
western nearshore waters. waves will generally be 2 to 4 feet in
the open waters and up to 2 feet in the nearshore early in the
week. can not rule out some eventual consideration for a small
craft advisory monday or tuesday afternoons in the stronger
south-southwest winds, especially west of cleveland.
thunderstorm potential increases tuesday and tuesday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
534 am edt sat may 16 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend continues with highs in the low 80s this weekend
then mid to upper 80s monday and tuesday.

- increasing humidity and moisture through the weekend allow for
daily periodic rain and storm chances.

- scattered storms this afternoon and evening will pose threats for
heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.

- strong to severe storms possible again on monday and tuesday
as wet and stormy conditions linger into midweek. spc has
introduced a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on
monday, mainly north of us 30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 341 am edt sat may 16 2026

satellite and radar imagery shows strong to severe thunderstorms
persisting across southern wisconsin and northern illinois early
this morning ahead of a cold front. this activity will track east in
the coming hours arriving to central lower michigan just before
daybreak, outrunning the more favorable environment still to our
west. hi-res model guidance depicts storms bypassing us to the
north until later in the day, when another surge of rain and
storms arrives from the southwest. should any storms make it
into our area, steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8c and mucape
of up to 750-1000 j/kg will promote isolated opportunties for
small hail and gusty winds. i expect these storms to remain sub-
severe, with additional activity coming later in the morning
and afternoon hours as storms redevelop. should the morning
round to our north put out an outflow boundary, storms may
redevelop this afternoon aside a better plume of moisture and
instability as an upper level disturbance moves through indiana.
a moist and warm airmass will overspread the area today and the
gulf connection continues to develop with breezy southerly
winds and continued waa. highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
dewpoints rising to around 60 will provide an increasingly
favorable environment for marginally severe storms. should any
strong to severe storms develop, of which the greatest chances
(30-60%) will be along and south us 30, the main threats will be
heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gusts as mucape
increases to 1000-2000 j/kg throughout the day. winds parallel
to the stalled boundary could yield backbuilding or training;
with pwats above 1.5", rainfall rates should easily be 1-2" per
hour at times. limiting factors today include a lack of
organized shear (only about 30 kts of bulk shear) and mostly
cloudy skies today (lack of sunshine for destabilization).

while daily periodic chances for rain and storms exist through early
next week, sunday has the lowest chances. the stalled boundary gets
pulled northward as an upper level trough deepens across the western
us. isolated rain and storms will be possible (20-30% chances) in
the morning. i`ve held onto the nbm pops for the morning to align
with neighboring offices, but wouldn`t be surprised if they are
reduced with subsequent shifts given increasing confidence that much
of the daytime hours will be dry as we end up well in the warm
sector of the next system that arrives early in the week. highs
climb into the low to mid 80s with southwest winds pulling in more
moisture into the ohio river valley and upper great lakes regions.

the hot and humid pattern continues with additional opportunties
for severe weather as deterministic and ensemble model guidance
shows a much more progressive, active pattern into early next
week. moisture surges monday with strong moisture transport off
of the gulf as dewpoints climb well into the upper 60s and highs
rise to the mid to upper 80s with pwats of 1.5" to 2". our
forecast area continues to be part of an expansive warm sector
by monday with breezy southerly winds allowing for an
impressively strong gulf connection extending into the great
lakes and ohio river valley regions. as the aforementioned upper
level trough digs across the central plains, scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms may develop, especially in the
afternoon/evening into the early overnight hours. spc has
introduced a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on
monday, mainly north of us 30. sbcape of 2000-2500 j/kg will be
present during peak heating late monday afternoon, although
there is uncertainty in how much and how quickly it could wane.
a strong llj will ramp up in the afternoon and evening as low
level lapse rates steepen too. the potential for high
instability, strong moisture transport, and favorable
atmospheric dynamics indicate that all hazards will be possible
monday as an organized severe weather event could take shape.

depending on what happens monday and how much the atmosphere can
recover tuesday, the cold frontal passage then may also spark
another opportunity for strong to severe storms. the timing of
the cold front is uncertain as it slows down due to high
pressure building in the atlantic offshore of the southeast us.
cooler, drier weather follows midweek in the wake of the cold
frontal passage.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 532 am edt sat may 16 2026

storms have bypassed us to the north this morning, although a
new wave of showers and a few embbedded storms is approaching
from the southwest out of central indiana. have kept in a prob30
group at ksbn and kfwa for storms this morning, although the
best chances will likely be along and south of us 30. greatest
chances for any redevelopment along a stalled boundary this
afternoon will be at kfwa, where a prob30 has been maintained
for 16z to 21z although confidence is low. main threats will be
isolated strong wind gusts of 40-50 kts and heavy rain. in both
rounds of storms, mvfr ceilings and visibilities will be
possible. southerly winds will ramp up later throughout the
morning, sustained around 12-15 kts and gusting up to 20-25 kts
by the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
546 am edt sat may 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms this
morning with lingering showers and thunderstorms possible this
afternoon across the south.

- increasing temperature trends this weekend into early next week.
high confidence for temperatures in the mid-upper 80s monday and
tuesday.

- multiple opportunities for thunderstorms into early next week.
greatest thunderstorm risk will be monday afternoon/evening with a
marginal to slight risk for severe weather in place for all of
southeast michigan.

&&

.aviation...

latest radar and satellite trends suggest an inbound area of
convective activity will advance across mbs/fnt this morning. there
remains higher probability for thunderstorms to impact this corridor
through mid morning. otherwise, simply some high based showers
possible all areas this morning as a surge of higher quality
moisture enters the region today. a secondary narrow window for
convective development may emerge early this afternoon, with a focus
across the detroit corridor as increasing instability engages a
lingering frontal boundary. again, lower probability scenario lends
to lower confidence in occurrence. prevailing southerly winds
turning gusty into the afternoon, while shifting to west-southwest
with time. modest westerly flow this evening, becoming northeasterly
early sunday morning as a cold frontal boundary drops southward.
period of mainly clear skies early tonight, with cirrus then thicken
with time overnight.

d21/dtw convection... the probability for a thunderstorm developing
early this afternoon remains low.


.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms early saturday afternoon.

* low for ceilings aob 5000ft saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 am edt sat may 16 2026

discussion...

the convective complex that developed across iowa last evening will
continue its march eastward into michigan this morning. this system
will be riding the low level jet with a healthy moisture transport
and a mid level wave. relatively high pops (50% or greater) remains
in the forecast this morning with convection expected to move
through locally during the 10z to 15z time frame. though, nearly all
of the hi-res models showing significant weakening of these showers
and thunderstorms as they move off of lake michigan and arrive with
very limited surface instability, if any, in place. this will keep
the severe weather potential very low through the morning. a chance
for general thunderstorms will remain given the steep mid level lapse
rates and elevated instability noted with the 500+ j/kg of mucape.
the weakening trend also leads to a weak rainfall signal with qpf on
the order of around a tenth of an inch or less across southeast
michigan through the morning hours.

a low end chance for precipitation will exist into the early
afternoon tomorrow, but soundings point towards a weak cap at or
slightly above 5kft. this should help limit any convective response
that would try to take advantage of the better daytime instability
that will be present as dewpoints rise into the 60s. any activity
would more than likely be towards the southern border with higher
coverage holding south of the state. greater warm air advection will
arrive as well and help daytime temperatures reach upper 70s to low
80s.

a mid-upper ridge will amplify over the great sunday into monday as
a result of a pacnw trough organizing over the rockies. a warm
frontal feature is set to lift northward on sunday as an embedded
shortwave lifts out of the plains through the ridging. this will at
least offer a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day
with added ascent along the warm front and supporting mid level
wave. hi-res model signal does not seem that excited about the
prospects of thunderstorms on sunday along the warm front across
southeast michigan. will be something to monitor given the favorable
diurnal timing with increasing instability noted with the warm and
moist advection, increasing shear profiles and steepening lapse
rates. southeast michigan remains in general thunder for the day 2
convective outlook as of now, but seems plausible that isolated
strong thunderstorms could be in play during the day sunday. will
continue to monitor the hi-res trends.

passing of the warm front sunday will continue the warming trend
through tuesday as deep south to southwest flow sets up and ushers
in 850mb temperatures on the order of 15-17c and 925mb temperatures
to around 20c for monday and tuesday. the result will be summer-like
temperatures each afternoon in the mid to upper 80s with 90s possible
depending on the cloud and precipitation trends. greatest chance for
90s will be across the detroit metro areas. mid 60s dewpoints will
also accompany the heat while supporting additional chances for
thunderstorms monday afternoon into tuesday. monday
afternoon/evening activity will be supported by the strong thetae
surge. the moisture will have gulf ties and pwats will climb towards
1.75 inches bringing potential for heavy rainfall. the environment
will be increasingly supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms
across parts of southeast michigan with favorable shear and
instability. a day 3 marginal to slight risk is now in place across
all of southeast michigan. thunderstorm threat continues on tuesday
ahead of a cold front. still a few days to refine details on the
severe weather potential early week. cold front eventually sweep
through, bringing temperatures back toward more normal values by
wednesday. high pressure will also build into the region resulting in
a period of dry weather mid to late week.

marine...

a line of thunderstorms tracks across lower michigan over the next
several hours, reaching the local marine zones around daybreak. most
storms remain elevated, although a few storms will be capable of
gusty winds in excess of 30 knots. the leading line clears out by
mid-morning, with a weaker signal for additional storms to fire
early this afternoon along the lingering surface trough. drier
conditions emerge late afternoon-evening while high pressure sends a
cold front south across the great lakes tonight. this front clashes
with the warmer airmass/ridge over se conus, with the southern
stream eventually winning out for sunday through early next week.
split flow sunday flips fully to the southwest monday and tuesday
ushering in a seasonably warm and unstable airmass. the main marine
concern will be potential for several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, although breezy southerly winds are expected to
develop along the nearshores (gusting 20 to 30 knots).

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.