Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
648 am est mon dec 1 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will build east across the region today. low pressure
originating near the gulf coast will extend a surface trough into
the ohio valley monday night into early tuesday, before tracking
northeast off the mid-atlantic coast. high pressure will build east
across the region tuesday night and wednesday ahead of a cold front
that will push south across the area early thursday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
satellite imagery shows one remaining band of clouds extending from
lake huron with clearing skies across much of lake erie. snow
showers are showing a downward trend in intensity across erie
county, pa and the winter weather advisory looks on track to expire
on schedule at 7 am. the weather today will be quiet with high cloud
overspreading the area while stratocu remains across ne ohio and nw
pennsylvania.

attention then turns to the trough swinging east across the plains
today before lifting across northeast ohio tonight. at the surface
low pressure will originate along the gulf coast and track northeast
towards the mid-atlantic through tuesday. before that occurs,
most models show an inverted trough extending north into eastern
ohio and some high resolution models even depict a weak
secondary low tracking across west virginia on tuesday morning.
a considerable layer of dry air between 850-700mb spreads north
across the area this afternoon and will need to be overcome
before any precipitation reaches the ground tonight. favorable
isentropic ascent spreads west to east across the area from
02-06z with light snow developing. snow is forecast to increase
in intensity towards 06z as the shortwave trough approaches from
the mid-mississippi valley and frontogenesis ramps up in the
850-700mb layer. snowfall rates of a half to three quarters of
an inch spread northeast across the area generally between
midnight and 9 am producing a few quick inches of snow. there
looks to be a banded component to this system which means a
swath of 3-6 inches is possible while areas outside this heavier
band could be a little lower than forecast in the 1-3" range.
best guess at this point is for the heavier band to be in the
vicinity of mount vernon to akron to meadville, but this could
vary northwest or southeast by a couple tiers of counties and
have gone with a more broad brushed snowfall forecast. the
timing of the snow is more problematic from north central ohio
to northwest pennsylvania as it will be falling late tonight and
into the morning commute on tuesday. intensity of snow will
drop off quickly from west to east on tuesday morning as a dry
slot wraps into the system in the 700-500mb layer. sometimes
these dry-slots are faster than expected as a 150 knot upper
level jet streak slides east of the area by 12z and that will be
something to monitor. liquid qpf is forecast to range from
around 2 tenths towards toledo to 4 tenths across the snowbelt
region which is why portions of nw ohio are not included in the
advisory. snow ratios of 10-14:1 will result in a widespread
2-5" of snow. both the 00z gfs and ecmwf are a little lower on
qpf while several of the high resolution models are hinting at
the banded precipitation developing and will favor some of those
solutions.

deeper moisture pulls away on tuesday morning which leaves some
question regarding lake effect snow potential in the northwesterly
flow continuing through the afternoon. lift looks to be
shallow(below 5k feet) but models sounding off lake erie suggest
equilibrium levels of 7-8k over the lake which would have sufficient
depth for ice nuclei. will keep 50-70 percent pops going across the
snowbelt tuesday afternoon with additional minor accumulations of 1-
2" possible where bands set up. this was the reason for keeping the
winter weather advisory in effect through 7 pm across the snowbelt
although the heaviest snow is expected during the early morning
hours.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
flow backs on tuesday night and any lingering snow showers should
diminish as moisture depth continues to dwindle. high pressure will
build east across the ohio valley wednesday with partly cloudy
skies, southwesterly flow, and warm advection. another upper level
trough will traverse the great lakes region wednesday night, pushing
a cold front south across the area. as moisture overspread lake erie
ahead of this system, lake effect snow showers will develop, then
push inland wednesday night into thursday am. snowfall amounts look
to be a half inch or less along the cold front except as high as 1-2
inches in the snowbelt south of lake erie. high temperatures on
thursday will occur during the morning and fall during the
afternoon. with a brisk northwest wind, wind chills on thursday will
be in the teens. winds drop off thursday night as high pressure
quickly builds in but allows for the coldest night of the year with
lows of 5-10 degrees except in the teens near lake erie.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
a cool pattern with below normal temperatures looks to continue
through the weekend. a broad longwave trough is in place from the
northern plains to new england with poor model agreement with
regards to shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft. it looks
as if the storm track starts off south of the region and pops have
trended lower to start the long term. we will need to monitor trends
over the coming days for the potential for additional snow showers
in this cooler pattern.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
mainly vfr across the taf sites this morning with widespread
deterioration to ifr later this evening and overnight as snow
moves from west to east through the area. confidence is highest
in vsbys falling between 1 to 2sm areawide, with a narrow
corridor of vsbys potentially falling as low as 1/2sm early
tuesday morning.

winds are generally light and variable this morning, less than 5
knots. winds will gradually favor an easterly direction later
this morning and afternoon, 5 to 7 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in lingering low ceilings and/or lake
effect snow tuesday night into wednesday morning. non-vfr likely
again wednesday evening and overnight in snow along a cold
front. non-vfr possible in scattered snow showers on friday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected for the first half of this week
as weak high pressure and/or weak troughing persists over the
lower great lakes region with winds less than 15 knots expected.
small craft advisories will be needed across lake erie wednesday
through thursday as southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots arrive ahead
of a cold front on wednesday, shifting towards the west to
northwest, 20 to 25 knots, behind the front on thursday. winds will
favor a southwest direction by the end of the week, 15 to 20
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 10 am est
tuesday for ohz009-017>019-027-028-036.
winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 1 pm est
tuesday for ohz010-029>033-037-038-047.
winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm est
tuesday for ohz011>014-020>023-089.
pa...winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est tuesday for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...10
near term...10
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
638 am est mon dec 1 2025

.key messages...

- patchy fog can be expected across portions of the area this
morning. the fog may be locally dense early morning.

- snow is expected to overspread the area late this afternoon
and tonight. snow accumulations are expected to range from an
inch or two across southern lower michigan to 2 to 4 inches
across much of northern indiana and northwest ohio.

- some lingering lake effect snow showers could persist into tuesday
morning but are not expected to bring significant additional
accumulations.

- additional snow chances for midweek followed by much colder
air.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 406 am est mon dec 1 2025

another system will bring widespread snow to the area tonight, with
a total of 1 to 4 inches expected. a locally higher amount is
possible especially along and south of us route 24 corridor where a
locally stronger band could set up. a winter weather advisory is in
effect tonight for northern indiana and northwest ohio.

lake effect snow showers have diminished early this morning as
inversion heights have lowered and snow growth region has dried out.
there could be some lingering very light drizzle or flurries across
far nw in/southwest lower mi through daybreak, but no additional
snow accumulation is expected. the other near term issue has been
some patchy dense fog across the area. radiational cooling over
wet/warmer snowpack has been conducive for some shallow fog,
locally dense. have issued an sps to cover this with low
confidence that coverage will warrant headlines at this time.

the busy weather pattern continues late this afternoon and
especially tonight as a positively tilted upper trough ejects out of
the rockies. the progressive nature of this trough leads to a
limited window of significant low moisture return in wake of
yesterday`s system with the strongest low level moisture
transport likely shunted southeast of the area into tonight.
however, some brief respectable mid level moisture return is
anticipated as far north as northern in/northwest ohio into
this evening with 700 mb mixing ratios increasing to 2-3 g/kg.
this isentropic forcing should quickly transition to more
frontogenetic in nature this evening as a strong mid level
baroclinic zone shifts into the area downstream of the mid level
trough. the initial isentropic lift will largely be spent on
top-down saturation, but strong 700-500 mb uvms should
overspread the area this evening in association with this mid
level baroclinic zone/fgen.

model cross sections continue to depict low static stability
just above the this mid/upper level frontogenesis forcing and
strong westerly unidirectional shear in this positively tilted
trough set-up could be conducive for some embedded stronger
banding. the favorable overlap of 700-500 mb lift with the dgz
and potential of strong lift in this layer could support some
impressive snow to liquid ratios around 20:1, especially in any
better banding that develops. the limitations to snow
accumulation tonight include the less than impressive low level
moisture profiles and progressive nature of mid level
trough/brief residence time of deeper moisture profiles. href
composite analysis would suggest best mesoband potential roughly
along and south of the us 24 corridor where greatest confidence
in advisory level snow accumulations exist tonight. however,
given potential of good snow ratios and collaboration with
surrounding offices have included all of northern in/northwest
oh in a winter weather advisory for 2-4" of snow localized
higher amounts possible particularly along/south of us route 24.
impacts may be somewhat mitigated by timing of most of
accumulation between monday evening/tuesday am commutes and the
fact that winds will be quite light with this system. some lake
effect snow showers are expected to develop as colder air is
drawn southward early tuesday morning, but sharp low/mid level
drying and strong subsidence should limit overall accumulation
potential.

a quick shot of some westerly warm advection ensues for tuesday
night/wednesday am before a stronger upper vort lobe drops across
southern ontario/northern great lakes bringing a strong cold front
southward. some minor accumulations are likely given large scale
forcing/frontal response but residence time of supportive moisture
profiles still appears very limited. looking ahead, medium range
guidance remains consistent in broad idea of several northwest flow
disturbances from sw canada bringing periodic shots of cold air
advection and a maintenance of below normal temperatures/snow
chances through the long term period.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 630 am est mon dec 1 2025

patchy fog was over northeast indiana and northwest ohio. dense
fog was at fwa at the time of the taf with the visibility
varying from near 0 to 1/2sm. given obs and trends and
conditional climatology data, fwa will be very slow to lift.
went with improvement starting at 15z. snow will spread into
the area tonight with visibilities below 2sm, especially at fwa.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for inz005>009-017-018-024>027-032>034-116-216.
winter weather advisory from 5 pm est /4 pm cst/ this
afternoon to 7 am est /6 am cst/ tuesday for inz012>015-
020-022-023-103-104-203-204.
oh...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
556 am est mon dec 1 2025

.key messages...

- light accumulating snow tonight. highest accumulation from metro
detroit southward, with 1 to 2 inches expected.

- temperatures will remain below normal throughout the week. the
coldest conditions arrive thursday and friday with wind chill of
single digits to lower teens.

- arctic front will bring the potential for light snow late
wednesday, with some minor accumulation possible.

&&

.aviation...

weak high pressure passing through the southern great lakes this
morning offers prevailing vfr across all terminals today. a lake
michigan stratus deck between 4 and 5 kft will continue to percolate
eastward into the area early today before beginning to shift to the
north as light southerly flow becomes established this afternoon. a
low pressure system passing through the ohio valley will produce
widespread light snow tonight with mvfr and ifr conditions expected
late evening and overnight. wind will remain very light through the
event with minor accumulations of 1 to 2 inches focused from metro
detroit and south. snowfall will taper off tuesday morning but
additional low level moisture will lag behind the system which may
maintain mvfr ceilings at times through the day tuesday.

for dtw...arrival of light snow is expected after 02z with ifr
conditions favored between 05z and 10z tonight. some model data
supports a brief period of vfr tuesday morning as the system
departs, but preference is to hold on to mvfr through the morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this morning, low this
afternoon, then high this evening and overnight.

* high for precipitation type as snow tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 313 am est mon dec 1 2025

discussion...

energetic north pacific jet undercutting broader upper level
troughing emanating south of a predominant central canadian polar
low ensures an extended stretch of higher magnitude cold by early
december standards along with potential interludes of at least light
accumulating snowfall during this 7 day forecast period. low and mid
level ridging entrenched locally early this morning, immediately
downstream of a broadening corridor of height falls lifting across
the plains. this maintains a window of dry and stable conditions for
the daylight period today. entrenched 850 mb temperatures below
-10c, translating into highs mainly aob 30 degrees.

light snowfall event arrives tonight. an increase in mid level
southwest flow ahead of the approaching height fall gradient
associated with a weak pv feature will establish a weak corridor of
moist isentropic ascent starting this evening. inbound moisture
quality proves sufficient in establishing adequate saturation to
generate light snow for most locations, but some areas generally
north of i-69 will likely maintain a much drier profile and could
lack depth to allow light snow production to reach the surface.
roughly a 6-9 hour event window centered between 03z and 12z
tonight. distribution in accumulation potential from north to south
ranging from a dusting to 2 inches, highest amounts focused south of
i-94.

after transient high pressure yields seasonably cold but benign
conditions tuesday, attention shifts to the arrival of an arctic
front late wednesday into wednesday night as a piece of the polar
low wobbles southward into the great lakes. gusty pre-frontal
southwest gradient emerges for the daylight period, as weak thermal
ridging noses into the region. peak gust potential into the 30 to 35
mph range with dependence of degree of mixing. little opportunity
for greater moisture recovery given mid level flow from a westerly
trajectory, so expectation remains for a limited response in terms
of snowfall production with a frontal passage currently projected
for the late evening hours.

significantly colder conditions thursday and friday. this arctic
intrusion will feature temperatures that are a solid 20 degrees
below average, leaving minimum wind chill friday morning at or below
zero most locations. series of shortwaves anchored with the active
pacific jet will stream east/southeast with time friday into next
weekend. very difficult pattern evolution to offer any meaningful
definition to potential opportunities for accumulating snow, given
an unsettled solution space in terms of strength, positioning and
timing of governing features. it remains within the envelop of
outcomes for this period to remain mostly dry and simply cold or
become active with one or more chances for accumulation.

marine...

high pressure slides across the ohio valley/southern great lakes
today maintaining light winds for the southern half of the region.
as for the northern half, broad low pressure over the hudson bay
compresses the gradient across the northern great lakes preventing a
true relaxation of the wind field resulting in persistent southwest
gusts up near 20kts into tonight. a system trailing the high crosses
the ohio valley late today-tuesday offering light snow chances but
otherwise brings minimal local marine impacts. next significant
system arrives wednesday as a strong arctic cold front drops out of
northern ontario resulting in both strong preceding southwest winds
and trailing northwesterly winds as the coldest air of the season
thus far moves over the great lakes. currently, greatest chances
(~40-50%) at seeing gusts to gales occur during the preceding
southwest aided by longer fetch over the central portions huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.