Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
751 am edt wed apr 22 2026

.what has changed...
the storm prediction center has added a marginal risk (level 1
of 5) for the potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and early evening across northwest ohio into
central ohio. the rest of the forecast through the weekend into
early next week will continue with warmer than average
temperatures and several chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.key messages...
1) there is the potential for a couple strong to severe storms
later this afternoon into the evening for nwoh into central
ohio. spc has added a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather later today.

2) warmer temperatures will continue through the end of the
week. the next chance for widespread rainfall will arrive late
friday through early saturday with a cold front tracking across
the region.


3) more unsettled weather is in the forecast early next week
with another weather system which will bring showers and
thunderstorms with widespread rainfall across the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak front has drifted southward into the lower great lakes
and is in the process of stalling out today. this weak front is
rather ill-defined but is located from west to east across the
local area. there are some scattered showers and isolated
thunder this morning across parts of neoh and nwpa which is
associated with this boundary. most of these scattered showers
will slowly drift out of the area and fade away later this
morning. skies will be variable sun and clouds at times but
overall it will be a decent day for most of the area. temperatures
will climb in the 70s for much of northern ohio into nwpa. the
immediate lakeshore may stay in the 60s due to a light onshore
flow and weak lake breeze later today.

the latest high-res near term model guidance has indicated the
potential for some scattered convection to redevelop near the
front later this afternoon into the evening. this potential is
mainly for northwest ohio into central ohio where this boundary
will stall out later today. this potential for a few stronger to
isolated severe convection to develop today is why spc has nwoh
and ncoh highlighted in a marginal risk for severe storms
(level 1 of 5) with the main threat being large hail up to the
size of quarters and isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
forecast model guidance indicates around 2000 jules of mlcape
will develop during the afternoon. bulk shear values are
marginal around 30 knots later today. there is also a weak mid
level disturbance in the 500 mb flow near chicago this morning
that will move eastward across the area and help in the
development of scattered afternoon convection along the weak
front. the storm mode expected will be clusters of storms and
should decrease in coverage by late evening around or after
sunset.


key message 2...
the stalled front will lift northeastward late thursday as a
warm front. it may try again to spark off a couple isolated
showers or storms thursday afternoon over north central and
northeast ohio. but the coverage should be limited and
unorganized convection with pops around 20 percent on thursday.
temperatures will climb in the middle to upper 70s with some
locations reach 80 degrees possibly thursday. a southerly flow
will become more established and start to increase by friday
ahead of an approaching cold front tracking eastward across the
midwest into the great lakes region. most of the day friday
looks dry but rain chances will start to creep back into the
forecast friday afternoon and especially towards the
evening/overnight. high temperatures will be back in the middle
70s to near 80 areawide before the rain chances move in late in
the day. the cold front will track across friday night with
widespread showers and isolated thunder. it will bring
widespread light to moderate rainfall for the entire area with
average amounts up to half an inch possible. high pressure and
slightly cooler temperatures will return this weekend but
continue to remain seasonable mild in the middle to upper 60s.

key message 3...
the next weather system to impact the region with unsettled, wet
conditions will move in next monday through tuesday. the medium
range model guidance is a little uncertain on the timing and
overall evolution of how to handle that possible low pressure
system. but the general expectations will be a well developed
surface low pressure system that develops over the midwest and
tracks through the upper ohio valley and lower great lakes late
monday into early tuesday. more april showers will be around
early next week and maybe some breezy conditions as well.
temperatures will still continue to be seasonable mild to warm
and above average for late april standards going into early
next week.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a weak cold front will sag south this morning and allow for low
vfr clouds to exit stage right. this afternoon will feature
light westerly winds with generally clear skies. some convection
should develop over northern indiana this afternoon and spread
southeast over northwest ohio. the highest confidence in ts at a
location is just kfdy and have maintained a prob30. any rain is
conditional at ktol and kmfd and will continue to omit from the
tafs. high pressure will build in tonight and allow for clearing
conditions with light easterly winds. some fog will be possible
in northwest and north central ohio, mainly where any rain
tracks this afternoon and evening.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and storms
friday and saturday.

&&

.marine...
benign weather and generally light winds remain expected on
lake erie through the forecast period. conditions are starting
off quiet with light southwesterly flow ahead of a front. this
front should eventually allow for winds to become onshore today.
high pressure building from the north tonight will shift winds
to the east/northeast through thursday. this surface high will
shift east on thursday night and allow for light southerly flow
to be favored near the shoreline. a low pressure system will
target the region for friday and saturday. southeast to east
flow will increase ahead of this system on friday. the low will
then move southeast across the lake on saturday and winds will
shift around to the north, where they should remain for the
weekend, as high pressure builds into the great lakes. no marine
weather headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt wed apr 22 2026

.key messages...

- strong storms late today and tonight with gusty winds mainly
north of i-80 from 3p to 9p.

- unseasonably mild today through friday with highs in the mid
70s to around 80 degrees.

- more storms friday and early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 301 am edt wed apr 22 2026

a front extended across far southern lower michigan. weak
surface convergence was occurring just north of the michigan
border along the front. storms will develop again this
afternoon is this area. surfaced based capes may reach 1500 to
2500 j/kg. the spc has placed much of the forecast area in a
marginal severe storm risk for wind gusts to 50 mph and hail up
to 3/4 inch. in the interim, patchy fog was developing north of
the michigan border. after coordination with grand rapids, will
continue to monitor and may issue a special weather statement
for the fog; however, a dense fog advisory is not likely to be
issued at this time.

unseasonably mild weather will persist through friday with highs
in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. upstream teleconnections
support an upper level ridge building north of the ohio over the
next few days. the latest gfs indicates heights will rise around
100 meters above normal over the eastern half of the conus. 850
mb temperature anomalies support these warm temperatures in the
70s to around 80 degrees.

in addition to the rain the rest of this week, additional
rainfall is expected early next week. wpc has widespread
rainfall amounts from around 0.75 to 1.00 inch monday and monday
night. at the time of this writing, several rivers were in
"action" and "flood" stage. depending how much rain falls in the
individual basins the rest of this week, river flooding may
persist the rest of this week and on into much of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 640 am edt wed apr 22 2026

weak frontal boundary remains draped across the area and will be
the focus for additional showers/storms this afternoon and
evening given marginal diurnal instability. best chances still
at kfwa but chances may need to be added for ksbn as well.
overall coverage will remain on the low side and therefore
holding with prob30. otherwise some mvfr ceilings possible this
morning at ksbn as boundary layer moisture starts to mix out.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 am edt wed apr 22 2026

.key messages...

- mild and mainly dry today aside from a low shower or thunderstorm
chance south of i-94.

- above normal temperatures through the second half of the week.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms friday.

&&

.aviation...

fog this morning has been relegated to portions of central lower
michigan. outside of some shallow ground development the first hour
of the taf period not widespread fog development is anticipated.
surface high pressure will expand into lower michigan resulting in
vfr conditions today. a weak cold front immediately south of the
area may become a focus for shower and isolated thunder development
between 24-00z. anticipating activity to remain to the southwest of
dtw this evening. vfr conditions tonight.

for dtw/d21 convection...none.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 355 am edt wed apr 22 2026

discussion...

broad deformation is in place across the great lakes this morning,
with residual frontal convergence noted in surface observations (sw
at dtw compared to nnw at mbs). the last of the frontal cloud band
has exited to our east, with clear skies observed across the cwa
this morning. some patchy fog is possible toward daybreak given the
efficient radiative cooling conditions, although observations have
shown limited coverage thus far.

surface high pressure slides across the northern great lakes today,
keeping most of se michigan mild, sunny, and capped. the exception
to this is near the ohio border where the aforementioned front is
expected to stall further north than in previous model runs. model
signal generates enough 925-700mb ascent and moisture convergence
along this frontal zone to erode the existing cap across the far
south. did add chance pops to align with the wedge of instability
that models are generating this afternoon, although still have pause
for convection reaching this far east given how dry the column is.
swody1 has designated a general thunder risk for se michigan. mid-
level height rises then expected tonight-thursday as longwave
ridging is pushed east by an expansive upper low west of the
mississippi. maximum h5 heights of 570-572 dam move overhead at peak
heating thursday, pushing daytime highs into the mid-upper 70s
through the end of the work week. column stability and lack of
moisture supports another generally dry day thursday.

the next opportunity for broad coverage showers and thunderstorms
arrives friday-saturday, orchestrated by the deep western conus
closed low. this low is currently off the pacific coast, and will
struggle to phase with a second northern stream wave until thursday
night. broad synoptic forcing across the eastern plains leads to
upscale growth along the occluded front thursday night, not reaching
se michigan until friday evening. by the time this happens, the wave
and surface reflection will be actively breaking away from the
parent low. forcing and moisture become more disjointed during this
process, and instability/shear parameters become less favorable for
organized convective potential. that said, if the surface low tracks
directly overhead that would augment ascent and low level wind shear
profiles. swody3 designates general thunder during this period.
ensemble member interquartile range for qpf ranges between 0.25" to
0.75".

high pressure fills in aggressively behind the front saturday-sunday
marking a return to drier conditions. daytime highs in the mid to
upper 60s this weekend will be closer to normal late april
standards.

marine...

a weak cold front settles south of lake erie this morning and
inbound high pressure allows north wind to gradually diminish
through the day. benign marine conditions prevail through tonight
and into early thursday. the next low begins to take shape over the
northern plains today, eventually sending the front back north as a
warm front late thursday into friday. this brings moderate southeast
flow and the next chance for showers and storms. the best chance for
thunderstorms and gusty southeast to east wind will be friday night
into saturday morning as low pressure moves in along the front.
another area of high pressure then builds in later this weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mv
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.