Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
790
fxus61 kcle 131805
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
105 pm est thu nov 13 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will build into the ohio valley today and move east
through saturday. a warm front will move north across the region on
saturday with a cold front sweeping through late saturday into
sunday. high pressure will build across the region to start the
week.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
high pressure will begin to build into the region today as a larger
upper level ridge builds into central conus. any lingering lake
effect showers across northwestern pennsylvania have ended and the
main bands of precipitation coming off of lake huron are focused
more into new york. there will still be some lake effect clouds
across far northeastern ohio and pennsylvania, but chances for
precipitation going forward will be low to zero. high temperatures
today will be mid to upper 40s with areas out west seeing 50.
overnight lows tonight into friday will be down into the low 30s for
much of the region. pleasant weather is expected for the remainder
of the week as an expansive high pressure continues to build in the
southeastern quadrant of the conus. by midday friday, the high axis
will be off to the east of the region and flow will shift to be out
of the west-southwest and temperatures will begin to warm. highs on
friday will reach into the low to mid 50s for the western half of
the cwa and the eastern half being into the upper 40s.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
the upper level ridge will start to build off to the east friday
night into saturday with the accompanying surface high pressure
building south off the east coast. an upper level trough will deepen
across south-central canada at this time with a developing surface
low pressure system. during the day saturday a warm front will move
northeast across the region bringing an influx of moisture from the
southwest into the region. precipitation chances will increase
throughout the day as the front passes through with the highest
chances in eastern ohio and into pennsylvania. the corresponding cold
front will sweep through late saturday night into sunday with a more
widespread chance for precipitation for the region. behind the
front, precipitation will linger across the snowbelt due to an
influx of cold air from the northwest. rain will be the primary form
of precipitation throughout the day on sunday outside of any
elevated areas, but will change over to mainly snow with a
rain/snow mix closer to the lakeshore by sunday night as
temperatures fall.


for temperatures for the rest of the short term, on saturday highs
will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s with the passing warm front,
though could be muted some given the precipitation and widespread
cloud cover. sunday, highs will much lower down into the mid 40s.
overnight lows during the time period will be in the upper 30 to low
40s to start and drop into the upper 20s to low 30s with the caa
behind the cold front.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
canadian high pressure should build into the great lakes region to
start next week with temperatures below average. a feature to watch
during this time frame would be a shortwave moving across the
central conus. currently, models tend to vary on the progression of
this feature as it exists the western plains with some deamplifying
the wave and others having it persist eastward through the ohio
valley. saying that, if this feature continues into the ohio valley,
then it could bring another round of precipitation to the area on
tuesday. though at this time, the main precipitation type will be in
the form of rain. for temperatures, they will continue to be below
average across the region for both highs and overnight lows.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
breezy west winds will continue this afternoon across northern
ohio and northwest pennsylvania with sustained winds in the low
teens and gusts around 20 knots. high pressure will inhibit
ceilings across the region, with exiting low vmc ceilings at
keri this afternoon. gusty winds will diminish below 10 knots
shortly after sunset, with winds gradually becoming
southwesterly less than 7 knots overnight. winds will shift
southerly by morning ahead of an approaching warm front, with
mid level ceilings moving in from the southwest overnight. high
vmc ceilings will persist through the taf period, however, no
significant weather is expected.

outlook...marginal vmc conditions with rain is likely saturday
through sunday, with isolated thunderstorms possible in portions
of northeast ohio. marginal vmc or imc conditions are possible
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania sunday night into
monday in lake effect snow showers.

&&

.marine...
w to nw winds will remain elevated in the 15-25 knot range over
the central and eastern basins of lake erie today as a tight
pressure gradient remains stubborn between a lingering trough
over the eastern great lakes and ridge of high pressure building
northeastward from the mid mississippi valley. this will keep
wave heights in the 4 to 8 foot range this morning, gradually
diminishing this afternoon. the small craft advisory from the
islands to vermilion will expire at 12z this morning, but
extended the small craft advisory from vermilion to avon point
until 00z this evening. otherwise, the small craft advisory from
avon point to ripley, ny remains in effect through 08z friday. w
to nw winds diminish to 5-10 knots tonight while becoming s
friday. s winds then increase to 10-15 knots friday night,
turning sw and further increasing to 15-25 knots saturday ahead
of a strong cold front. winds turn wnw at 20-30 knots behind the
front saturday night and sunday, slowly diminishing sunday night
and monday, so another period of small craft headlines will be
needed saturday through at least sunday night and possibly into
monday. winds will be near gales saturday night and sunday in
the central and eastern basins given the deepening low lifting
into the eastern great lakes, strong cold air advection, and
post frontal pressure rises.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez145.
small craft advisory until 3 am est friday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...23
near term...23
short term...23
long term...23
aviation...27
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
710
fxus63 kiwx 131654
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1154 am est thu nov 13 2025

.key messages...

- trending warmer through the remainder of the week.

- there is a 20-40% chance of rain showers saturday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 218 am est thu nov 13 2025

upper-level ridging slowly amplifies overhead for the remainder of
the week, allowing the area to thaw out following our premature
winter episode. a low over the pacific northwest displaces
downstream ridging, allowing the ridge axis to be centered over
midwest on saturday when highs will be well into the 60s. preceding
this, highs in the 50s will be common this afternoon and closer to
60 friday. satellite from wednesday afternoon showed a significant
reduction in snow cover. some model guidance this morning depicted a
more expansive snow pack than reality, thus, i did nudge up
temperatures for this afternoon. neutral temperature advection at
850-mb but rising 500-mb heights were factors as well.

this ridge flattens saturday night as an upper-level low moves
through the canadian prairie and over to the upper great lakes. look
for a 20-40% chance of showers as early as saturday afternoon;
perhaps too early/fast given the preceding ridge and disjointed
moisture. the best co-location of forcing and pacific moisture is
over far northern mi and eastern ontario, thus throwing a wrench
into the local forecast confidence.

in the wake of the cold front, highs only in the 40s which is just
shy of normal for mid-november. canadian high pressure is slow to
shift east as an upper-level ridge moves in early next week. a
progressive upper-air pattern suggests at least a 30-40% chance of
rain showers by midweek.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1152 am est thu nov 13 2025

dry conditions and vfr ceilings are expected to prevail through
the duration of the taf period, but mid/high level clouds will
move in this evening and overnight in advance of a warm front
lifting north. west winds will shift to become southwest by the
evening and then eventually south by the early morning hours on
friday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
952
fxus63 kdtx 131759
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1259 pm est thu nov 13 2025

.key messages...

- mainly dry today and friday with a warming trend through saturday.

- precipitation chances rise saturday and saturday night.

- cooler conditions return early next week.

&&

.aviation...

area of dry and stable air occupies the local airspace today and
tonight as high pressure influence commands vfr conditions. goes
imagery reveals some streaks of high cirrus aloft to the southwest,
and model data indicates marginally sufficient upper level moisture
could lift into the region late afternoon and early evening, leading
to the possibility of ceilings above 20 kft agl. main forecast
concern through the rest of the daylight hours will be the strength
of westerly winds. gusts should peak in the 20-25 knot range as low-
level winds level-off and nocturnal stability cuts the mixing
connection shortly after sundown. mid level moisture then fills in
overnight resulting in broad coverage of ceilings near 10 kft agl
over the taf sites. this cloud is expected to linger through friday
morning before giving way to a sct-bkn cumulus field friday
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 am est thu nov 13 2025

discussion...

confluent flow aloft and the subsequent building ridge of high
pressure that pushes into southern michigan today will bring about
dry conditions along with extended periods of sunshine. some
residual cloud cover to hold on through the thumb this morning tied
to the plume of lake moisture flowing in from lake superior-huron,
but clouds will advect east and scour out as flow backs. while still
on the western fringe of the thermal trough, the coldest air now
resides well northeast of the great lakes. coupled with sunshine,
temperatures are forecast to peak around 50 degrees through a
greater portion of the cwa, and slightly cooler within the irish
hills and thumb.

overnight, longwave ridge across the greater plains will continue to
progress east as a southern wave streams over baja california while
a second wave starts to amplify and progress into the central
canadian provinces. this will allow for the pseudostationary front
positioned across the plains to accelerate east as a warm front,
which will bring progressively warmer temperatures to se mi through
the end of the week. an elevated warm front will progress over the
cwa friday morning which will bring a small window for some
thickening cloud cover along with sprinkles or very light and
fleeting showers. antecedent dry conditions and lack of sufficient
column moisture precludes any mention of measurable precipitation
for this time frame. the boost in waa and clearing of any early day
cloud cover will allow temperatures to push through the 50 degree
mark for daytime highs. as the northern stream wave accelerates south
into the northern great lakes, the warm airmass over the plains will
fold into michigan with 850 temperatures peaking around 10c between
12z sat - 18z sat, correlating to daytime highs in the 60s.

a strengthening low pressure system and lagged cold front does bring
the chance for rain showers saturday afternoon and evening, but with
ill defined structure under a well capped environment, rain
efficiency will be on the lower side. ensemble qpf ranging between
1" to .2" for total rain accumulation. mid-level lapse rates will
be quite steep around 7.5c/km, so while instability is lacking, a
rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. caa quickly ramps in in the
wake of the front, returning temperatures back into the 40s for a
high and 20s for a low early next week. unsettled conditions remain
possible through the week but predictability is low at this time as
michigan will be within the vicinity of a baroclinic zone, but any
sort of overrunning potential can be modulated from a polar high
that will attempt to push into the great lakes through the middle of
the week.

marine...

this morning will feature some stronger winds and wind gust
potential aligned through north to central lake huron, where the
cooler northwest flow aligns. periodic gusts to gales continues to be
possible through the mid-morning hours, but will preclude the
issuance of a short-fused gale warning as high pressure is expected
to build later this morning, diminishing wind speeds.

winds slowly but steadily weaken through the day as high pressure
gradually builds into the central great lakes. despite this, small
craft advisories remain in effect through the morning around the tip
of the thumb due to lingering elevated waves. said high drifts over
the great lakes through friday night maintaining drier weather and
lighter winds. next low tracking over northern ontario is set to
swing a cold front through the region saturday bringing rain-snow
chances back to the area. trailing cold airmass looks to be stronger
then the one wednesday supporting a good shot (~60-70%) at seeing nw
gales sunday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...am
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.