Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
183
fxus61 kcle 182309
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
709 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure and cold temperatures tonight will be sufficient
for another round of frost development. most of the forecast
area, excluding the lakeshore, and areas where the growing
season has ended; see the latest public information statement
for which counties. otherwise, no precipitation is expected
through the next 7 days with highs in the 60s and overnight lows
in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
high pressure over the region will keep conditions vfr with
light southerly winds, generally 5 kts or less, through the
period.

outlook...vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
south to southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots tonight becoming
light and variable monday and monday night. northeast flow
around 10 to 15 knots develops tuesday into tuesday night, with
waves around 2 to 3 feet. quiet conditions on lake erie return
wednesday and thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt monday for ohz003-006-008-
010-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...03
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
056
fxus63 kiwx 182332
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
732 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

.key messages...

- another cool night with lows in the mid 30s and areas of frost
expected.

- a frost advisory is in effect for our indiana and ohio
counties late tonight into early monday morning. the growing
season has ended for the state of michigan.

- dry and pleasant weather persists through the entire week with
highs around 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain in sight.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

main forecast concern for this package is overnight lows and
subsequent frost headlines. surface gradient tightened a bit today
as low pressure and a weak front crossed northern ontario. however,
the gradient relaxes substantially overnight as front exits and high
pressure rebuilds over the great lakes. calm winds and clear skies
set the stage for ideal radiational cooling. most 12z guidance has
upper 30s for lows tonight but roughly 25% has mid 30s and there are
a few members (10%) suggesting 33-34f possible. given ideal
radiational cooling and recent performance, decided to lean toward
the 25th percentile with 35-37f for most locations. surface
dewpoints are a little low for a widespread/heavy frost but areas of
frost will certainly be possible. much of our cwa (especially our
southern half) did not experience a widespread, killing freeze the
past two nights. therefore, the growing season will continue for in
and oh and a frost advisory has been issued for tonight/early mon.
colder temps and climatology supported an end to the growing season
for the state of michigan so no headlines will be issued there.

a gradual moderating trend is still expected this week as high
pressure slowly drifts east. highs on mon climb into the upper 60s
and hover around 70f through the weekend. the gradient remains weak
monday night but there are indications of some passing high clouds
and a slightly warmer afternoon should keep overnight lows in the
upper 30s/near 40f for most. after monday night, lows remains safely
in the 40s the rest of the week. don`t anticipate needing another
frost advisory at this time. afternoon rh values near 30 percent are
possible each day but winds remain light and will minimize fire wx
concerns. there is virtually no rain in sight for the next 10 days.
weak fronts pass to the north wed and sun but strong ridging remains
locked over the ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 730 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

vfr conditions at the terminals this period, light southerly
and/or variable flow expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 1 am edt /midnight cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am
cdt/ monday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
923
fxus63 kdtx 182339
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
739 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

.key messages...

- wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph diminish with sunset this evening.

- dry weather and mild temperatures hold firm through the week.

&&

.aviation...

drainage flow off of strong surface high pressure to the south and
east of southeast michigan will maintain vfr conditions throughout
the period. model data supports strongly anticyclonic flow
trajectories throughout the period. there is little to no signal for
any fog monday morning, and latest moisture progs suggest high cloud
will only become possible after 22z monday.

d21/dtw convection...there will be no thunderstorms through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

discussion...

another outstanding mid october day is in progress across the great
lakes courtesy of ohio valley high pressure and a dry cold front
entering the upper midwest. sw wind gusting 20 to 30 mph between
these systems, with a full sun assist, is lifting temperatures
toward mid 60s highs, a few degrees above normal for oct 18. mild
and dry air remain inbound this evening until gusts decouple around
sunset. a little more wind toward the ohio border and a little less
toward the tri cities, compared to last night, create a more uniform
field of low temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
there is a chance for patchy frost in wind sheltered areas through
sunrise monday.

more of the same pleasant fall weather is on tap during monday
through mid week as a maturing split flow upper air configuration
favors a ridge centered on the midwest and great lakes. the northern
stream hudson bay low also leaves the midwest cold front to
dissipate in the northern lakes in favor of reinforced high pressure
through tuesday. extension of the warming trend is the weather
highlight with strong support across model guidance. highs in the
mid to upper 60s are only held in check by weaker sw flow/warm
advection monday shifting to light easterly tuesday.

the warming trend peaks wednesday as highs near 70 are reachable in
a low level wind field that returns sw ahead of the next northern
stream cold front. this front approaches the northern great lakes
wednesday night and has a chance to settle into southern lower mi
thursday. model consensus illustrates a moisture-starved boundary
capable of a cloud increase but minimal potential for rain before
the front dissipates in favor of slightly cooler high pressure
heading into next weekend.

marine...

gusty southwest wind continues through this evening as we sit
between high pressure over the mid-atlantic and deep low pressure
over hudson bay. observations across the area align with latest
forecast information showing gusts of 20 to 30 kt over lake huron. a
slight uptick in wind magnitude is expected through the rest of the
afternoon as mixing depths reach their peak, but low-level stability
is still expected to hold the highest momentum aloft. 50%
probability exists for gusts to reach 35 kt gales at times in the
longer fetch from outer saginaw bay to central lake huron through
midnight. any gales are not expected to be continuous enough to
warrant a gale warning. wind then begins to subside overnight as the
gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the great lakes. this
ridge stalls across the area bringing tranquil marine weather at
least through the middle of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.