Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
644
fxus61 kcle 081032
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
632 am edt fri may 8 2026

.what has changed...
no major deviations from the previous forecast at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of showers are expected through sunday with a
series of fronts moving through the region. rainfall amounts will be
less than one inch with no flooding impacts expected.

2) below normal temperatures are expected early next week with frost
chances on sunday night and monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an unsettled weather pattern is shaping up for this weekend
with several fronts moving through, bringing intermittent rain
chances. for today, some showers are moving through the area
this morning ahead of a warm front. these will largely fizzle
out as they enter a relatively dry air mass. the warm front will
move through later today and with the isentropic lift behind
the front, some more widespread showers will develop late this
afternoon through tonight. coverage will be highest in the
southern portion of the forecast area, but most of the area
should see at least a little bit of rain. for saturday,
expecting a dry start to the day with good mixing in the warm
sector. temperatures will rise well into the 60s and there
should be some 70s to allow for a brief window of a few nice
hours during the day on saturday. however, that will likely be
short-lived for most as a shortwave will round the broader upper
trough moving through the region. this will support the first
cold front through the region which will bring some shower
activity across the area and have a mix of high chance to
categorical pops. some scattered shower activity will persist on
saturday night, although coverage will be much less than
earlier in the day. for sunday, another lobe of the upper trough
will enter and support a stronger cold front through the
region. this will initiate some more scattered showers before
high pressure enters from the northwest on sunday night.

key message 2...
behind the pair of cold fronts this weekend, temperatures will
return to below normal early next week, feeling more like early-
to-mid april. low temperatures on sunday night and monday night
will be in the 30s and 40s. with a dry and clearing air mass,
there will be the potential for frost on sunday and monday
nights, mainly where temperatures can get into the low-to-mid
30s. high temperatures will be in the 50s on monday. some
locations may try to reach the lower 60s by tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
w`erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and net surface
troughing affect our region through 12z/sat. our regional
surface winds will vary between s`erly and w`erly around 5 to 15
knots. vfr are expected for the time being as variable amounts
of low/mid/upper-level cloudiness accompany the aforementioned
disturbances. isolated and mainly light rain showers associated
with one of the aforementioned disturbances are expected to
impact lake erie, ne oh, nw pa, and vicinity through ~13z/fri.

between ~16z/fri and ~06z/sat, widespread light to moderate rain
should overspread our region generally from the west-southwest
in advance of the axis of a stronger shortwave disturbance
aloft. widespread ceilings mainly in the 2kft to 5kft agl range
should accompany this rain, but occasional ifr ceilings are
possible. visibility should vary between vfr and mvfr in this
rain. note: isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into early evening, but confidence in storms impacting any taf
site is low. the widespread rain should begin to exit generally
e`ward from our region after ~02z/sat and the back edge of this
rain should become located near a kjhw to kyng to kcmh line by
12z/sat. behind this rain, widespread ifr ceilings are expected
through 12z/sat. weaker surface winds around 5 knots and
lingering low-level moisture from the rainfall should allow
radiation mist or fog to form through 12z/sat, especially in
northern oh.

outlook...periods of rain with non-vfr are expected this weekend
and during the pm hours of this tuesday. scattered thunderstorms
are possible this saturday afternoon into saturday night.

&&

.marine...
primarily s`erly to w`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected
on lake erie through saturday afternoon as the axes of subtle
troughs advance e`ward across the lake. these winds may flirt with
20 knots at time saturday afternoon. during saturday evening
through saturday night, a cold front should sweep se`ward across
lake erie and cause sw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer
toward nw`erly. however, these winds may flirt with 20 knots at
times saturday evening. waves should trend 3 feet or less, but
occasional 4 footers are possible saturday afternoon through
evening. behind the cold front, a ridge should affect lake erie as
the embedded high pressure center moves from the canadian prairies
toward atlantic waters near nc on sunday through tuesday. primarily
nw`erly to n`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on sunday through
monday should become variable in direction monday night through
tuesday. waves should trend 3 feet or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
853
fxus63 kiwx 081038
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
638 am edt fri may 8 2026

.key messages...

- periods of light showers into saturday night.

- highs in the 60s today and around 70 saturday.

- seasonably cool early next week with highs near 60.

- patchy to widespread frost north of highway 30 sunday night
and monday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 414 am edt fri may 8 2026

an anomalously cool pattern will persist as an upper low lingers
over eastern canada. 500 mb heights were around 400 meters below
normal from hudson bay into the upper great lakes. yesterday`s
temperatures were close to 10 degrees below normal. short wave
energy moving southeast in the cool pattern will generate showers
through saturday as the atmospheric environment remains saturated
or close to saturation from the surface to above 30,000 ft. another
in the series of these waves will bring scattered to numerous showers
to the forecast area today. there is above average of general model
agreement with timing and location of the showers this afternoon into
early tonight. the favored locations for rain will be south of the
michigan border.

this cool pattern will bring more chances for frost early next week.
temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid and upper 30s mainly
sunday night and monday night. vegetation development is likely
advanced for this time of year given the large number of growing
degree days (already near or exceeding 400 south of the michigan
border). headlines will likely be needed to cover low temperatures
these cold nights.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 635 am edt fri may 8 2026

a band of showers early this morning is oriented from northeast
illinois to the kmie area. while northern indiana appears to be
situated between two more pronounced mid/upper level short
waves early this morning, these showers appear to be feeding off
the leading edge of a zone of stronger low level theta-e
advection. with more veered low level flow this morning, there
should be a decent south to north cut-off with these showers,
with kfwa appearing to be best aligned with this advective
forcing for a period of light showers late this morning into
early afternoon.

forecast confidence is on the low side regarding evolution of
rain showers during the early-mid afternoon period, but all
indications still point to a stronger upstream short wave
beginning to affect northeast indiana this afternoon. backing
low level flow in advance of this wave should strengthen low
level moisture convergence for increased rain shower coverage
from the mid-late afternoon hours into this evening,
particularly at kfwa. showers should wane later this evening as
stronger forcing slips southeast with weak low level trough
passage. will limit precip mention to prob30 at ksbn, a bit more
divorced from better low level moisture and advective forcing.
did maintain a trend to some light fog/stratus redevelopment
tonight behind weak sfc trough, with kfwa better aligned with
more favorable low level moisture fields for mvfr conditions to
develop late this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
567
fxus63 kdtx 081057
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 am edt fri may 8 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures recover into the lower 60s this afternoon.

- turning even warmer on saturday, although scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop.

- below normal temperatures return sunday and likely persist through
mid-week.

&&

.aviation...

an eastward departing mid level wave pulls a weak front south of the
ohio border and leaves clear sky over se mi for the morning. wind is
light westerly between the ohio front and the next low pressure
system in the upper midwest. high clouds move into lower mi from
this system during the afternoon with patches of mid clouds near the
dtw corridor as daytime instability activates the front in ohio.
ceiling holds above 5000 ft until the upper midwest low moves into
the northern great lakes tonight. strengthening sw wind below 700 mb
generates moisture transport from the mid ms and oh valleys leading
to expansion of low to mid level clouds and a few showers after
midnight leading to borderline vfr/mvfr ceiling potential heading
into saturday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected today and tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and saturday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 am edt fri may 8 2026

discussion...

yesterday`s high temperatures remained in the 50s, despite the 00z
dtx sounding indicating mixing depths all the way up to 738 mb. a
strong shortwave/cold pool (-32 c at 500 mb) is exiting east of the
central great lakes early this morning. subsidence will allow for a
modification of the airmass over southern lower michigan, and highs
should have no problem climbing back into the lower 60s as low-level
winds become southwesterly. a series of more subtle shortwaves
tracking through the western great lakes this afternoon and tonight
will bring a very low chance of showers, mainly toward the southern
michigan border where there is better low-level moisture and
proximity to the 850 mb theta-e gradient over the ohio valley.

widespread higher chances of showers arrive saturday as a notable
cold front is on track to move through during peak heating of the
day. with 1000-850 mb cape around 500 j/kg and fairly steep mid-
level lapse rates, isolated thunderstorms producing small hail
appear likely.

deep cyclonic flow then develops for the second half of the weekend
into early next week, with 850 mb temps progged to bottom out in the
-2 to -4 c range monday morning. min temps likely drop into the 30s
sunday night and monday night; however, uncertainty remains
regarding whether persistent cloud cover will prevent widespread
frost/freeze conditions.

marine...

high pressure at the surface will result in a weak pressure gradient
and thus light winds, generally less than 15 knots, through friday.
mid levels remain active though with broad troughing over the region
directing a series of weak systems aloft across the area. the next
system will track through the ohio valley friday evening into the
overnight which will bring a period of showers to lake erie but
winds will remain light. a stronger system is still forecast to
track through the northern great lakes saturday which will pull a
cold front across the region saturday afternoon bringing increased
winds up to around 25 knots and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.