Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 242343
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
743 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

.what has changed...
temperatures have trended a little bit cooler for tonight, but
otherwise no significant changes were needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather and fall temperatures are expected through
tuesday with rain chances returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will maintain influence over the region through
early next week, resulting in prolonged dry weather and slightly
below normal temperatures through tuesday. tonight will be the
chilliest night of the week with widespread lows in the low to
mid 40s expected at inland locations. a few spots across
interior nw pa, particularly in valleys, will likely dip into
the upper 30s and there is a chance that a few spots across
interior ne oh drop below 40 degrees early friday morning. as
far as frost potential goes, 925mb flow may be a bit too high to
allow for frost development. however, if flow lightens enough,
there will definitely be sufficient clearing for very isolated
instances of frost, particularly across far eastern
erie/crawford counties in pa and perhaps typical cold spots
across interior ne oh.

high temperatures will generally be in the 60s through monday or
tuesday, although temps across the western half of the area will
likely warm into the lower 70s saturday through monday.
widespread low 70s are expected by the middle of next week.

the next chance of rain will arrive wednesday through thursday
as a low pressure system moves across the great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
high pressure building south into the region will provide vfr
conditions through the taf period. winds will generally be
northeast through the region, increasing to 10 to 12 kts during
the daytime hours. high clouds will build into the region from
the west during the day on friday but should fizzle out by
evening.

outlook...mainly vfr favored through tuesday, though periods of
overnight patchy fog are possible.

&&

.marine...
a period of northeast winds to 15 to 20 knots is expected in the
central and western basins late this afternoon into this
evening, which will produce a moderate swim risk and waves of 2
to 4 feet tonight. small craft advisory conditions may very
briefly occur from roughly the islands to geneva-on-the-lake
this evening. by late tonight, winds will become southeasterly
and diminish to 10 knots or less, although winds will once again
become northeast and increase to 10 to 15 knots during the day
friday. similar flow will persist through the weekend with wind
direction periodically becoming more northerly. waves will
generally be 1 to 3 feet friday through the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sefcovic
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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959
fxus63 kiwx 242256
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
656 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the
weekend with the coolest conditions expected on friday.
temperatures will moderate early next week to near normal.

- an extended period of dry weather is expected through
tuesday, with next rain chances not until the middle of next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 336 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

poor mixing with easterly flow in place has allowed some low clouds
to hold on across western and southern portions of the forecast area
this afternoon. continued southeast progression of the southeast us
upper trough will allow background upper ridging across central
conus to eventually build eastward across the western great lakes
and ohio valley through saturday. this evolutions should allow low
clouds to diminish this evening as much drier low level air
advects in from the east. this should leave mostly clear/partly
cloudy skies developing this evening with low clouds having
longest residence time across nw indiana. in addition, some
increase in high level clouds is expected from west to east
later tonight into early friday. however, arrival time of this
thicker cloud cover should still be late enough for most
locations to dip into the 40s. warmest temps are expected across
far northwest indiana where low clouds will have some extra
residence time tonight along with a quicker replacement by
higher cloud cover. this could keep lows closer to 50 or in the
lower 50s for these locations.

very little progression in the mid/upper level pattern is expected
friday through sunday with a stable longwave pattern developing that
will feature primary short wave storm track across southwest canada.
the upper ridge axis should remain displaced west of the local area
through the weekend which will keep a broad low level anticyclone
anchored across the great lakes. weak easterly flow on southern
periphery of this high will allow for weak low level thermal
advections through the weekend with only a slight daily moderation
in temperatures to the lower 70s for saturday and sunday.

the quiet weather will continue into the early next week as next
upstream short wave still appears to be get dampened in background
upper ridging. prospects for more of a full latitude eastern pacific
trough still look on track for the tuesday-early thursday. however,
some fairly large timing discrepancies persist among the various
deterministic/ensemble guidance with operational gfs being a
fast outlier, even compared to gefs. a focused period of higher
pops will likely be needed at some point for some period early
to middle of next week as forecast confidence in timing begins
to increase.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 654 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

visible satellite imagery shows rapid clearing of cloud cover
from east to west this evening. both terminals should see vfr
ceilings by 00z as clouds quickly dissipate. winds will be light
around 5 kts out of the east/northeast overnight with mostly clear
skies. additional cloud cover will move in from upstream
tomorrow morning and last through the day tomorrow, however, vfr
ceilings are expected to prevail.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 250413
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1213 am edt fri sep 25 2026

.key messages...

- an extended period of dry weather with seasonable temperatures
lasts through the weekend and early next week.

- the next chance of rain arrives with a low pressure system and
cold front projected to reach the great lakes wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

strengthening mid to upper level low pressure over the mid atlantic
region will cause the rex block to readjust during the next 24
hours. the change will help the center of surface high pressure to
retrograde from quebec into the central great lakes by mid afternoon
friday. persistent easterly flow and moisture fluxing off of lake
ontario and lake erie will bring the potential for some vfr or mvfr
cloud friday morning. low confidence exists in ocarinas and will
leave out of the taf forecast.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 pm edt thu sep 24 2026

discussion...

surface high pressure is locked in from southern quebec across the
great lakes which has dry and stable conditions entrenched across
lower mi today. a classic early fall day is the result with
temperatures near normal and wind speed down a notch compared to
wednesday. early day shallow cumulus is long gone by mid afternoon
allowing full sun to lift temperatures to highs around 70. clear sky
and light wind follow tonight which set up favorable radiational
cooling conditions as high pressure is centered more overhead
compared to recent days. this supports guidance offering lows in the
lower 40s over a large area of se mi outside of metro detroit. one
or two upper 30s reports are also in reach from the typically cooler
locations around se mi by sunrise friday.

double checking upstream conditions today shows a band of showers
extending from the upper midwest into the central plains associated
with a weak mid level wave and surface trough. model projections
show this system quickly overwhelmed by larger scale ridge
development as the long wave blocking pattern shifts configuration
tonight and friday. the moisture axis is reduced to a band of mixed
high clouds tracking across the central great lakes friday afternoon
and evening. dry and stable conditions are then solidified during
the weekend as the mid/upper level ridge and surface high pressure
strengthen over the great lakes while the nor`easter matures on the
mid atlantic coast.

consensus of extended time range models indicates changes beginning
monday as the nor`easter moves slowly up the coast monday night and
tuesday. this promotes deamplification of the trailing mid/upper
level ridge over the great lakes in a transition toward greater
influence of the westerlies that carry multiple short waves across
canada during the mid week period. it takes until wednesday for the
lead wave and surface system to reach the great lakes and bring the
next chance of rain to lower mi. models also produce a cut-off low
around the 4 corners to southern plains which is positioned to
intercept much of the tropical moisture from "polo" remnants mid to
late next week.

marine...

the expansion of a strong canadian high pressure system derived from
quebec and ontario into the great lakes will provide an extended
period of light winds and dry weather through early next week. some
periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be possible across
southern lake huron through this extended time frame, but otherwise,
wind gust potential at or below 15 knots is expected. wind direction
will mainly hold from the northeast as high pressure fills in across
michigan.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.