Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
610
fxus61 kcle 141353
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
953 am edt tue apr 14 2026

.what has changed...
convection has developed along a line extending from near erie,
pa southwest towards marion, oh. this line has developed along a
theta-e gradient and is expected to push out of the area over
the next few hours. there is not expected to be any severe
storms with this line.

in addition, spc has extended the enhanced risk into the far
reaches of nwoh, clipping lucas county in our area. this risk is
primarily concerning the overnight convection as models are
slowly coming into more agreement that an mcs will develop over
wi/mi and push east-southeast overnight. the decaying remnants
of this mcs may clip the northern portion of the cwa, which is
where the highest concern for severe weather is. will continue
to monitor the 12z guidance for additional changes to the
forecast. as of now, all hazards will be at play tonight with
strong winds the biggest concern.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of storms likely today through thursday. storms
may be strong to severe at times, best chance this evening into
tonight and on wednesday afternoon/evening.

2) multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain may result in flooding,
especially on wednesday.

3) above normal temperatures expected through saturday with cooler
temperatures returning towards the end of the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
unsettled weather with periodic showers and thunderstorm
complexes are expected through thursday as a frontal boundary
wavers to the north of the local area and a series of shortwaves
move across the boundary. given the lack of forcing with the
best upper level support to the north of the area, convection
over the next couple of days will rely on mesoscale features
and the resulting confidence in timing, placement, and strengths
of storms remains low at this time.

round 1 (early today): the actual first round of storms has
exited the area, however the upstream convection over southern
wisconsin and michigan will need to be monitored through this
morning. it`s possible that the overnight convection has left
some lingering boundaries across the area so will need to keep
an eye on the potential for enhanced convergence as this
weakening convection moves in. it`s possible that the atmosphere
is still stabilized due to lingering cloud cover and a mid-
level cap, but some elevated instability remains in place.
either way, will need to keep an eye on the potential for
elevated storms that could produce gusty winds and hail this
morning into this afternoon.

round 2 (this evening/tonight): the severe weather potential
later this afternoon into tonight will depend on how the early-
day convection pans out. early-day convection may help stabilize
things later this evening. on the other hand, the convection
could leave behind boundaries and a source for convergence for
evening convection maintenance and growth. additional convection
will move in from the northwest this evening into tonight,
although there is some potential for scattered showers and
storms developing out ahead of the main line of convection at
some point early to mid evening. there`s quite a bit of
disagreement in the forecast amongst cams, but overall
confidence in the potential for precipitation in general is high
for tonight. despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, relatively
high shear values due to a 50 knot llj moving into the northern
portion of the cwa and deep moisture will result in a favorable
environment for thunderstorm maintenance. with this round,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard but large hail
and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the wind field and
lapse rates. generally expect a weakening trend as the storms
move into the area overnight. if stability stays in place, it
may be more of a heavy rain scenario (see key message 2). there
is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across
northern ohio with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over the
remainder of the local area.

round 3 (wednesday): the air mass will change very little on
wednesday and if anything, moisture will increase and forcing
may increase slightly as the aforementioned frontal boundary
sags a bit further south. moist and deep west/southwest flow
will likely produce sufficient destabilization for scattered
showers and storms on wednesday and cams suggest that yet
another complex of storms will traverse east across the local
area wednesday afternoon into wednesday evening. as with
previous days, damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in
these storms, although the severe weather threat will depend on
mesoscale features that have not yet been resolved. there is a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across interior ne
oh and nw pa with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere.

round 4 (thursday): additional showers and storms are possible
as a cold front pushes east across the local area thursday into
early friday. instability may be a bit lower during this
timeframe, but the upper level support will allow for potential
for organized convection ahead of or along the cold front. there
is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on
thursday.

a brief break in convection is expected on friday, but showers
and storm chances return on saturday as a cold front approaches
and moves east across the region. will need to keep an eye on
potential for organized storms on saturday in the upcoming days.

key message 2...
moderate to heavy rainfall rates will accompany thunderstorms
through thursday. the deep, moist west/southwest flow will
produce precipitable water values between 1.2 and 1.5 inches
(possibly higher at times) through early thursday. to add some
context for how unseasonably high these pwats are, the 90th
percentile for pwats at surrounding upper air sounding sites for
mid-april are generally under an inch with daily maxima of up
to about 1.25 inches. storms should be relatively progressive
today into tonight, although the efficient rainfall rates and
multiple opportunities for storms could cause some rises on
rivers/creeks/streams and cause some minor flooding issues in
urban/poor drainage areas. any precipitation today and tonight
will help prime waterways and soils for additional precipitation
on wednesday. as of early this morning, 1-hr ffg values across
the area are generally up to 1.5 inches (with locally higher
values up to 2 inches) with 3-hr ffg values of generally 1.75-3
inches. expect these values to decrease with any heavier
rainfall this evening/tonight. there`s also some potential for
backbuilding/training wednesday into wednesday night, which
would increase flooding concerns for localized areas. confidence
in qpf (especially axes of higher qpf values) is low and will
depend on where storms occur, but several cams have at least 1
to 2 inches of qpf across portions of the area through early
thursday with locally higher amounts possible where repeated
rounds of rain occur.

key message 3...
persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal
temperatures through saturday. instead of normal lower 60s for
highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in
areas that clear out a bit today and wednesday. cooler
temperatures may materialize with persistent cloud cover and
precipitation. it will be quite muggy thanks to dew points in
the lower 60s. temperatures will temporarily moderate to below
normal values in the 50s sunday and monday, but guidance favors
a warming trend by the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
active stretch of weather expected through the taf period with
multiple possible rounds of thunderstorms, some strong to severe
possible. the first round of showers with some embedded thunder
will enter from the northwest this morning. guidance has trended
a bit earlier so have -tsra or -shra begin ~12z and exit this
afternoon ~18z. have timed out impacts to terminals with the
initial round of convection using prob30 groups across western
terminals and tempo groups for -shra across eastern terminals.
the development on the next round of thunderstorms may hinge on
what occurs this morning and early afternoon. as of right now,
these thunderstorms will develop along and east of cle around
03z/wed with a stronger area of thunderstorms pushing southward
across lake erie starting at ~04-06z/wed. for the taf, opted for
a prob30 group at all taf sites for the evening/overnight
possible convection. strong to damaging wind gusts and ifr/mvfr
reductions to cigs/vis will be possible in any stronger
thunderstorm that moves over a terminal in this later timeframe.

elevated southwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts 20-30 knots
will remain in place through this evening. highest wind gusts
will occur this afternoon and in any convection. winds shift
southerly tonight and diminish to 10 knots or less through the
overnight hours.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected in
showers and thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly winds remain elevated between 15-20
knots through today. given the offshore component, the highest
wave heights will remain across the open waters of lake erie.
southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain across
the lake through the end of the week as multiple systems move
through the region. periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
will be present through thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04/15
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
344
fxus63 kiwx 141227
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
827 am edt tue apr 14 2026

.key messages...

- a complex of showers and thunderstorms will shift southeast
across the southern great lakes this morning bringing a
potential of some gusty winds and brief heavy rain. some
uncertainty persists with how far southeast this band of
showers and thunderstorms will survive this morning.

- isolated storms are possible this afternoon, especially across northwest
into portions of north central in. however great chances of
thunderstorms will be this evening into the early morning
hours wednesday. there is a slight risk of severe storms
tonight with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to 1 to 2
inches in diameter as primary threats. an isolated tornado is
possible, but of lower confidence.

- locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight into wednesday which
may result in some renewed areal and river flooding concerns.

- above normal temperatures will continue into this first part of
weekend before a cold front brings below normal temperatures.

&&

.update...
issued at 821 am edt tue apr 14 2026

quick update to the grids to increase pops this morning based on
current radar trends.

the outflow boundary that was responsible for the uptick in
overnight showers/storms has accelerated south, ending the
threat of convection with that feature for the time being. an
area of showers and storms was working through ne il into nw
indiana with some new development ahead of it. it still remains
uncertain how far east this will make it before weakening. no
severe threat is expected with this activity, with locally heavy
rain and maybe some gusty winds the main concern. pops are
highest in the west with a decreasing trend eastward with
everything done by 18z (if not before). most likely the
afternoon and early evening hours will be precip free as it will
take time to destabilize once again. the outflow boundary is
likely to modulate back north and could be a focus for some
isolated storms. however, the greatest concerns still exist
later this evening into the overnight hours with some signals
indicating a somewhat increased threat for damaging winds as the
upstream convection races east. something to sort out in the
afternoon package.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 322 am edt tue apr 14 2026

a complicated forecast over the next 72 hours with several rounds of
convection possible. severe weather is possible each day through
thursday, with greatest confidence in scattered severe storms
tonight.

a convective complex is ongoing this morning across wisconsin to the
lake michigan vicinity with an associated outflow boundary
extending from northeast iowa to far southeast wisconsin. this
convective system has shown signs of both downwind propagation
(eastward across east central wisconsin) and upwind propagation
(southeastward across south central wisconsin). a strong low
level jet feeding into this boundary should help sustain
additional convection and southeast push of the outflow to
southern lake michigan this morning. the tendency over next few
hours may be for increasing trend in stronger cores to be
displaced further behind outflow boundary due to some stronger
downstream mlcin across the southern great lakes. may need to
watch for potential of isolated severe gust across primarily
southern lower michigan this morning where more of a forward
propagation may be favored, but a higher confidence potential
does exist across nw in/southern lower mi for some 40+ mph wind
gusts this morning. there have been some instances of small
scale circulations developing at leading edge of the line across
se wisconsin in qlcs type setup. if forward propagating system
can reach southern lower michigan this morning cannot completely
rule out similar evolution where westerly 30-35 knot 0-3 km
shear vector has a more favorable orientation, but more limited
instability with southward extent and more likely more parallel
orientation of shear vectors to line through time may limit
this potential.

another thing to monitor for today could be possibility of some
small scale convectively enhanced short wave kicking northeast
out of eastern missouri this morning which could interact with
the southward dropping outflow boundary across northeast or east
central illinois. timing of this interaction would probably be
late morning/midday period in unfavorable timing in terms of
peak diurnal instability, but may need to watch for some uptick
in convection across far west/southwest late morning given steep
mid level lapse rates in place.

overall forecast thinking has not changed greatly for the primary
severe weather threat period tonight. the outflow boundary will
likely stall from ne illinois into portions of iwx forecast area
this morning, with instability recovery likely by late
afternoon as this instability gradient is advected back
northward via stronger low/mid level flow associated with
convectively enhanced short waves to the southwest. some
isolated stronger storms are possible in vicinity of this
instability gradient as it lifts north, but the possibility
exists for weak cin to hold.

by this evening low level flow will back some to the southwest
in response to a progressive wave across working across the
upper midwest. this should yield a pocket of strong 925-850 mb
moisture convergence from eastern ia into southern wi this
evening which looks prime for convection initiation. some lower
confidence still persists in how convection will evolve tonight,
whether a coherent cold pool and southeast propagating
convective system occurs, or if storms remain just slightly
elevated north of the composite boundary. supercell wind
profiles will likely be in place again by this evening as a
stronger mid level jet lifts across northeast il late afternoon
with a wind/hail threat. best combination of shear/instability
still looks possible across nw in/sw lower mi where all severe
hazards would appear more likely, although helicity profiles
more favorable for tornadoes may be displaced west across
northern il where shear may be augmented by the low/mid level
jet. as mentioned, still uncertainty with details in convective
mode tonight, but overall key themes from previous forecast
remain intact. some heavy rain potential may materialize later
tonight as potential outflow with southern great lakes storms
could become more favorably oriented parallel to veering low
level westerly flow.

it is difficult to get into too much detail regarding severe
potential for wed/thu as this be highly dependent on previous day`s
convective evolution and hard to resolve smaller individual
smaller scale waves in this pattern. this situation is a
complex one as stubbornness of longwave ridging to break down
across eastern conus results in multiple upstream short waves
shearing out as they encounter this ridge, and also an added
increased susceptibility to convectively enhanced short waves
from southern plains/lower ms valley. instability profiles will
likely be more limited for wednesday and thursday, although at
least wednesday should still feature respectable wind shear
profiles that could allow for at least an isolated severe
threat. some small increase in instability is possible thursday
as upper ridge finally appears to be broken down by stronger mid
level wave, but shear profiles may become a bit more marginal by
this time.

the extended period of above normal temperatures will continue
through the first part of the weekend. medium range guidance is
starting to come into a little better agreement in timing frontal
passage with next more substantial longwave trough for first part of
the weekend. much too early for details, but some strong/severe
threat could accompany frontal convection saturday depending on
timing. may also need to watch for periods of strong synoptic winds
this weekend in both pre-frontal and post-frontal environments.
cooler, below normal temperatures should build in for second half of
weekend into next monday, but residence time of this cooler air
looks to be limited.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 628 am edt tue apr 14 2026

an outflow boundary from the organized convective complex across
wisconsin has lost much of its momentum this morning across
north central indiana. an additional convectively enhanced
short wave lifting out of northern missouri will likely interact
with this lingering outflow for additional storms in vicinity
of the boundary and in a more elevated sense behind it. this
greater precip threat should diminish late morning/midday.
there is a potential for an isolated storm along the old outflow
boundary this afternoon, although some capping and weaker large
scale forcing should limit this overall threat. it still
appears as though favored convective initiation should occur
across nrn il/srn wi later tonight and likely propagating into
northern indiana late evening. still some uncertainty persists
regarding convective mode and whether storms may develop a cold
pool and sink south, or remain mainly confined across far
northern indiana for much of the night. given this uncertainty
will keep prob30 tsra mention going at this forecast distance.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
320
fxus63 kdtx 140923
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
523 am edt tue apr 14 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tuesday night,
mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. storms will be capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

- there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms wednesday and
still another round of storms possible thursday.

- each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.aviation...

showers and thunderstorms exiting the state 11-14z. borderline
mvfr/vfr low clouds leftover for a good portion of the day. a
pronounced mid level dry slot is expected to reside over southeast
michigan this afternoon, which should help limit any potential
convection from going up. uncertainty if the low vfr/borderline mvfr
clouds will mix out today underneath this general subsidence.
increasing low level southwest flow (gusts 20-30 knots) and
instability should once again spawn a thunderstorm complex over or
in the vicinity of southern wisconsin late in the day with potential
arrival over southeast michigan in the late evening. activity will
likely persist through the night as the southwest low level jet
continues to feed moisture and instability into the region.

dtw/d21 convection...showers and thunderstorm exit shortly after taf
time. the bulk of the day looks to be dry before another round of
storms develops late this evening and especially overnight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5000 feet today, high tonight.

* low for thunderstorms today, then becoming medium late this
evening and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 306 am edt tue apr 14 2026

discussion...

the well advertised, several day long, active stretch of weather is
underway. the warm front has become established across northern mi
with the broad surface low back over iowa. the most recent mid level
wave ejecting from the longwave trough over the western conus
pairing with a strong low level jet has resulted in an expansive
line of convection spanning from northern mi back into southern mn
early this morning. the best instability and shear remain to the
west but as the jet strengthens and pushes east, it will bring
increasing levels of shear and instability into southern mi.
forecast starts with severe thunderstorm watch #107 across mid mi to
account for the current upstream activity tracking through the
region overnight. this will mostly be for a hail and wind threat.

last of the overnight convection should be east of the area for the
most part by 12z this morning leaving us in a bit of a lull through
the early part of the day. many of the hires models still show
hints of precip along the warm front at times this afternoon which
wouldn`t be out of the question with the strength of warm air
advection and wealth of instability (2k j/kg) present, but we`ll
lack stronger upper level forcing until later this afternoon and
evening when the next mid level shortwave and convectively driven
surface low ripple along the front through southern mi. spc
continues to have the whole area in a slight risk of severe storms
which looks to target the 00-06z window this evening into tonight.
with similar overall setup, forcing, low level jet, moisture
quality, cape, 40 knots of shear, and steep mid level lapse rates,
etc to what is going on in the midwest and great lakes tonight, see
no reason this risk should change moving forward. risks will be
large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. even after the
initial convective cluster rolls through, the upper level trough
will drift over the midwest by late tuesday night which will steer
additional mid level energy across the area with the stall front
still draped across mid mi. this keeps southern mi in a marginal
risk for additional severe weather on wednesday.

additionally, a growing threat will be for possible flooding. with
pwats up around 1.25 inches or more through the period, and surface
dewpoints in the 60s, there will be ample moisture for these storms
to use. qpf during the period of time from tuesday night through
wednesday night is around 1.5 inches across the whole cwa. with the
potential for convection training over the same locations, some
local probabilistic guidance shows the potential for 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall during this time. this combined with previous ground
soaking rain over the last week and several rivers already running
high could lead to flooding concerns. wpc has a portion of the area
in a slight risk on tuesday and marginal risk on wednesday.

upper level trough will cross the area on thursday providing yet
another chance for storms. mild conditions continue on friday but we
should get a break from precip with increasing heights aloft and
surface ridging sliding through. this looks to be a short lived
break though as the next deep trough is already working east across
the plains which will be additional precip chances through the
weekend.

marine...

showers and thunderstorms exit east this morning in favor of drier
weather by afternoon. southwest flow reemerges across the south with
a gradual veering trend in wind direction to the north as a warm
front settles near saginaw bay. this front will be the focus for
another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop late this
evening and overnight. some of these storms may be strong to severe,
capable of large hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts over 34 knots.
this unsettled pattern persist into the mid-week period. wind and
wave concerns will mainly be tied to thunderstorm activity.

hydrology...

an active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms tonight through thursday. each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused
areas of thunderstorms develop. rainfall amounts of half an inch to
an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. additional
rainfall between a half and one and a half inches currently forecast
to fall between wednesday and thursday. while widespread flooding is
not expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and
urban areas along with rises on area rivers are possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...drk
marine.......mv
hydrology....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.