Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 100018
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
818 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected near
the lakeshore this evening into tonight followed by more
widespread rain friday. severe weather is not expected.

2) much above normal temperatures sunday through most of next week
with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances continue
to affect our region through daybreak friday. at the surface, a
front has stalled in vicinity of the toledo metro area and the
southern shore of lake erie in our cwa. after about 9 pm edt
this evening, the front is expected to begin to shift back
n`ward as a warm front and become located near the northern
shore of lake erie by daybreak friday as one frontal low
wobbles e`ward across northern qc and another frontal low
wobbles ne`ward from northern ks to southeastern lower mi.
primarily dry weather is expected through daybreak friday as the
boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal cooling. however,
isolated rain showers are expected over and very near lake erie
in our cwa, especially prior to midnight edt tonight, as moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the front releases
weak and elevated cape. low temperatures should reach mainly the
lower to mid 50`s around daybreak friday as net low-level waa
behind the front contributes to somewhat limited nocturnal
cooling.

expect favorable mid/upper-level jet streak dynamics and
associated large-scale tropospheric ascent to permit the
coverage of rainfall to be much more widespread on friday as
the weak low crosses the southern great lakes and pushes the
front generally southward as a cold front in our cwa. the right
entrance region of a 90-100 knot h3 jet streak crossing lower
michigan will generate a swath of fairly steady rain across
illinois, indiana, and lower michigan friday morning that will
slowly sink across the region during the day. in terms of
timing, expect rain to reach a sandusky to findlay line by 14z
and an erie, pa to mansfield line by 18z. the swath of rain
showers will then continue sinking slowly southward the rest of
the afternoon and evening. abundant cloud cover and rain will
keep instability very low friday, so while isolated
thunderstorms are possible in our southern counties friday
afternoon, no severe weather is expected. any storms will
produce locally heavier rain. total rainfall on friday should
average 0.35 inches or less in our cwa, but localized higher
amounts are possible from thunderstorms. even so, flooding is
not expected. a few peeks of sunshine and low-level waa ahead of
the cold front should allow daytime highs to reach mainly the
60`s to lower 70`s.

key message 2...
the frontal boundary will briefly be forced south to the ohio
river valley saturday behind the low as canadian high pressure
at the surface builds down across the great lakes. this will
bring cooler temperatures, especially near the lakeshore, as
low-level winds turn ne. the change will be short lived though
as the front already lifts back northward sunday in response to
a strong mid/upper low progressing into the california/oregon
coasts forcing strong amplification of mid/upper ridging over
the eastern conus. this will set up a broad southwesterly flow
pattern through most of next week leading to very warm and
increasingly humid conditions. temperatures will climb into the
low to upper 70s sunday and monday and upper 70s to low 80s
tuesday and wednesday. the next cold front continues to trend
slower, so temperatures will likely stay well into the 70s
through thursday.

in addition to this being an unseasonably warm pattern, it will
also be an active pattern as the aforementioned closed low
slowly progresses into the plains by midweek and evolves into a
broad mid/upper trough. this will eject weak shortwaves across
the mississippi and ohio valleys in the broad sw flow, and given
the increasing low-level moisture and instability, periods of
showers and thunderstorms will result. there will not be much in
the way of forcing until the main piece of the remnant trough
approaches toward the end of the week, so expect convection to
be scattered and peak during the afternoon/evening diurnal
cycles until perhaps a more organized round toward wednesday or
thursday depending on how the trough and associated cold front
evolve. again, the trend has been slower.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
w`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region
through 00z/sat. variable amounts of low/mid/upper-level cloud
cover will precede the disturbances` axes. at the surface, a
front has stalled in vicinity of ktol and the southern shore of
lake erie as of 23:30z/thurs. this front should begin to drift
n`ward as a warm front after 00z/fri and near the northern shore
of lake erie by 12z/fri as a low wobbles ne`ward from northern
ks to southeastern lower mi. the low should then wobble farther
ne`ward to near the qc/me border and strengthen through
00z/sat. this should allow the trailing cold front to sweep
se`ward across our region between ~16z/fri and 00z/sat. behind
the cold front, a ridge builds from the north-central united
states.

prior to the cold front passage, our regional surface
winds should trend s`erly to sw`erly around 5 to 15 knots and
gust up to about 25 knots at times after ~14z/fri. note: the
development of a nocturnal and sw`erly low-level jet of ~40 to
60 knots at/near 925 mb is expected to result in a period of
low-level wind shear overnight tonight until ~14z/fri. behind
the cold front, our regional surface winds veer to nw`erly and
then toward n`erly while remaining around 5 to 15 knots in
response to the building ridge.

mainly dry weather and vfr are expected for the time being.
however, periods of light to moderate rain and isolated
thunderstorms with brief mvfr to ifr are possible along and near
the southern shore of lake erie through ~05z/fri as the
aforementioned stalled front eventually begins to shift n`ward.
this includes ktol, kcle, and keri. ahead of and along the cold
front at the surface and aloft, widespread light to moderate
rain and lower ceilings should overspread our region generally
from west to east between ~13z/fri and ~17z/fri. once the rain
arrives, conditions should deteriorate to mvfr to ifr fairly
quickly. as the surface ridge builds behind the cold front, rain
should end generally from northwest to southeast at/near ktol
and kcle after ~21z/fri, but widespread mvfr to ifr ceilings
should persist.

outlook...non-vfr expected with periodic rain showers friday
night and again this sunday through tuesday. periodic
thunderstorms should occur this sunday through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will drop down into the southern great lakes this
evening, and will push completely through the region friday.
offshore winds will become onshore behind the cold front as wave
heights increase to the 1-3ft range through saturday. winds become
offshore once again through sunday night, and then increase out of
the southwest to the 15-25kts range monday through tuesday. during
that time frame, wave heights will increase rapidly with distance
from shore and will be in the 3-5ft range in the open water
zones.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas/jaszka
aviation...jaszka
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 092315
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
715 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

.key messages...

- cooler temperatures arrive friday w/ increased chances for measurable
rainfall across much of the area. there is a 40-60 percent
probability of at least 0.5 inch of rainfall from late tonight
through friday, mainly north of us-6.

- trending warmer and generally drier through the weekend.

- daily chances for showers and thunderstorms can be expected next
week as numerous disturbances pass through the area. an
occasional risk for strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

minimal changes made to the inherited forecast for this cycle w/ the
main near-term focus continuing to be centered on the next chance
for widespread rainfall impacting a large part of the area tonight
through friday. the highest probabilities (40-60%) for greater
totals still look to remain focused over northern areas (mainly
north of us-6), heaviest in the 06z to 15z time frame. while the
best chance of showers and storms will occur overnight with the
frontal passage, a subset of available guidance suggests some low-
end potential for an earlier round of convection between 00z and 06z
on the nose of a surge of low-level warm air advection early this
evening. have opted to maintain 20-30 percent pops across northern
zones for this reason. otherwise, previous forecast thinking remains
largely on track through the period. / hammer

previous discussion (330 am edt thu apr 9 2026):

some uptick in shower coverage is expected this evening as a broad
upstream mid level trough begins to induce stronger low level flow
over the stalled boundary across the southern great lakes.
this setup should eventually turn into a southeast sagging
boundary/low level fgen forcing scenario late tonight into friday as
the mid level trough tracks across the great lakes region. weak mid
level lapse rates should limit thunder potential tonight into
friday, with best chance of few embedded storms late this
evening/early overnight. sharpening frontogenesis forcing
tonight/early friday will have the potential to produce at least a
narrow axis of 0.50"+ of rainfall north of us route 6 corridor, but
lesser rain amounts are expected for southern locations as stronger
frontal forcing should be migrating across the eastern great lakes
friday morning. area hydrographs do show some response to this
forecasted rain, but overall response is expected to be minor in
nature and currently not anticipated to have significant impact on
the ongoing river flooding.

seasonable temps are expected on saturday due to friday frontal
passage, with temperatures expected to be near seasonable levels.
mid level height rises in wake of friday mid level trough should
yield quiet weather conditions at least through first half of the
weekend. the second half of the weekend will feature a return of
stronger low level warm advection with more favored short wave track
expected from the central plains to the upper ms valley/northern
great lakes. by sunday night into monday, mid to high chance pops
(40-50%) will be maintained as central conus theta-e ridge shifts
across the region. some uncertainty still exists with shower chances
during this period due to likelihood stronger forcing will be
displaced northwest/north of the local area.

for next week, medium range guidance is in decent agreement that
split flow across eastern pacific will yield a stronger southern
stream upper trough which will eventually reach central conus by
next wednesday. confidence remains high in much above normal
temperatures continuing into tuesday with broad warm sector across
southern great lakes/ohio valley. weaker embedded short waves are
possible early next week in stronger westerly flow regime that could
induce periodic shower/storm chances considering some steepening of
mid level lapse rates anticipated during this period. present
indications would suggest perhaps best chances of more organized
convective chance by middle of next week when the western conus
upper trough ejects northeast. however, recent trend in ensemble
guidance points toward downstream upper ridging potentially holding
stronger across eastern third of the country into middle of next
week which could allow for some dampening of this upper trough
across the great lakes region. / marsili

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 653 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

a weak front was over northern indiana with showers developing
in the cooler air on the northern side of the front. a series of
impulses will race east with the upper flow. these impulses will
bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to northern indiana through
friday. along with the showers and storms, wind shear is expected
tonight. low levels will saturate tonight, especially at sbn
where ifr ceilings are expected by late tonight. surface high
pressure over the upper midwest will build into the region and
help clear out the lower layers at sbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 100000
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
800 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

.key messages...

- another round of rain showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
develops mainly after midnight tonight lasting through tomorrow
morning.

- dry weather and cooler but still near normal temperatures tomorrow
afternoon and saturday.

- warmer temperatures moving in sunday into mid-week come with an
active shower and thunderstorm pattern.

&&

.aviation...

a tightening gradient of geopotential heights in combination with a
marine release off of lake huron this evening will lead to a
strengthening baroclinic zone and easterly wind over much of the
forecast area. advent of warm advection with increasing low level jet
brings a low chance/tempo for showers at detroit taf sites between
3-6z with prevailing rain showers developing to the north of the
stationary front after 09z. strong low level jet and 850mb
frontogenesis leads to widespread rain from north to south between
05-15z rainfall rates are expected to be good enough for ifr
conditions/ceilings. low confidence exists in thunderstorms and will
monitor forecast trends. wave of low pressure should result in a
fairly abrupt end to rainfall late friday morning with organized
subsidence ending precipitation. mvfr stratus is expected for much of
the day friday.

for dtw...tempo for rain showers between 03-06z with prevailing ifr
rain 11-15z friday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight. high friday.

* low for thunderstorms this evening. low for thunderstorms friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 310 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

discussion...

cold front continues its progression through southeast michigan this
afternoon as shower coverage gradually wanes across the south. the
cold front is expected to stall out around the southern michigan by
the end of the end of this afternoon. high pressure settling in
behind the front brings clear skies across most of southeast
michigan. gusty afternoon winds from better mixing will decrease
into this evening as lower level flow weakens and the boundary layer
becomes more stable. low end pops(20-30%) and lingering clouds will
remain in the forecast early in the evening along the southern
boundary supported by weak ascent downstream of a mid level wave.

tonight will see increasing coverage of showers, mainly after
midnight, as the mid level wave moves along this front drawing it
northward and nocturnal low level jet ramps up. weak mid level lapse
rates and the lack of surface instability will limit the thunder
potential, but a few elevated embedded thunderstorms will be
possible. pwats increasing towards and inch and potentially reaching
one inch along a narrow corridor arriving with the low-mid level
thetae. a sw to ne axis of rainfall averaging 0.50 to 0.75 inches is
forecast through tomorrow morning, which will be focused across
central to northern portions of the cwa. any embedded thunderstorm
activity may be able to push localized amounts up towards one inch
of rainfall. rainfall rates should be held in check for the most
part given the lack of strong instability.

high pressure will build back into the region late friday bringing
an end to the precipitation chances, but lower level moisture
trapped under an inversion will keep higher coverage of clouds into
friday night. high pressure center moves directly over michigan
saturday morning with increasing subsidence bringing a cloud
clearing trend. temperatures settle down into the mid 50s for highs
during the afternoon to start the weekend under the mostly clear
skies.

sunday will see strong warm/moist advection driving by a low
pressure system that will track across the northern plains clipping
the northern great lakes over lake superior. temperatures at 850mb
will surge to 10+c offering well above normal temperatures sunday
afternoon in the 60s to low 70s. better moisture will also result in
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances saturday night/early sunday
morning along an advancing warm front. the trajectory of this system
will carry rain chances sunday evening into monday. pattern remains
active through the early half of the week with relatively high
confidence in above normal temperatures in the 70s at least through
tuesday. models depicting weaker embedded shortwaves early week with
the greater western conus trough ejecting into the plains toward mid-
week will be responsible for multiple rounds of rain and
thunderstorm chances during this period. mid-week period currently
holds the better organized convective potential, but will have to
see how the pattern shakes out with how the ridge across the eastern
conus may affect the inbound pacific trough. this would direct
greater convective potential to the west.

marine...

southerly flow gradually decreases this morning and veers toward the
west throughout the day, behind an ontario low pressure system and
its associated cold front. strong low level flow tied to the passing
low also departs which ensues peak morning gusts stay below gales,
particularly for central lake huron where there was prior concern.
the wave response becomes less prominent as the day continues, but
still exceed small craft advisory criteria for the southern huron
nearshore zones, therefore an advisory remains in effect. rounds of
showers decrease from northwest to southeast today, with low
potential for thunder. a wave lifting out of the plains leads to
additional opportunities for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
tonight and friday, while some light snowfall is more likely for the
north/central huron basin. high pressure then builds out of the
upper midwest to start the weekend with drier and weaker northwest
flow. active weather will be possible again sunday through tuesday
due to several passing disturbances. potential exists for gusts to
gales, mainly late sunday into monday.

hydrology...

another round of showers develops mainly after midnight tonight that
lasts through tomorrow morning before ending tomorrow afternoon.
this system brings a sw-ne rainfall axis with amounts focused mostly
across central and northern portions of southeast michigan. rainfall
totals average 0.50 to 0.75 inches in a 6 to 12 hour time window.
there is a chance for localized totals near 1 inch where embedded
thunderstorms may develop. flooding potential remains low with this
event, although the new rainfall could slightly delay drainage from
river and stream systems after the heavy rain that occurred last
weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.