Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
642 am est fri nov 13 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were
needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect showers are expected through the weekend. a
rain/snow mix is likely tonight with light snow accumulations
possible in spots.

2) dry weather will return early next week with temperatures
rising above normal.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the gloomy weather pattern will continue as cyclonic flow aloft
persists over the northeastern conus through much of the
weekend. the current round of lake effect rain showers will
largely taper off through early this morning before shower
coverage increases as the next piece of energy pivots across the
region later this morning into this afternoon. by friday night,
steering flow will shift to the northwest and focus the
precipitation into northeast ohio. there will be plenty of
lake-induced instability with lake temperatures right around 13c
and 850mb temps likely falling to around -6c tonight, so precip
rates may be efficient at times. expect rain as the primary
ptype through early this evening before mixing with and possibly
even transitioning to snow after 7 pm/00z tonight. the main
challenge with the forecast is how cold temperatures get
overnight tonight; northwest flow off of the (relatively) warm
lake will most likely keep temperatures just above freezing.
with that in mind, snow will likely struggle to accumulate. the
current forecast has a trace to roughly half an inch across the
central highlands and into the secondary snowbelt areas of
interior ne oh/nw pa with locally higher amounts of around an
inch possible. a few high res models suggest that higher
amounts of at least a couple inches are possible where bands of
snow persist, especially in the event of a lake huron moisture
connection, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in where
exactly that could occur since it will probably be very
isolated. will need to keep an eye on guidance trends,
especially forecast overnight temperatures trend even a couple
of degrees cooler. either way, impacts to travel aren`t expected
at this point since wet snow accumulations will largely be
confined to grassy and elevated surfaces.

precip will transition back to rain during the day saturday as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s and rain
chances will likely increase across nw pa during this time. a
few wet snowflakes may mix with rain in nw pa late saturday
night, but a cold rain is generally favored as the upper trough
slowly starts to push east of the area and 850mb temps
increase. expect precipitation to gradually dwindle throughout
the day thursday as 850mb moisture decreases and a ridge starts
building in from the west.

key message 2...
high pressure will build into the region by early next week with
dry weather expected monday onwards. temperatures will slowly
increase throughout the week as the high gradually shifts east
with highs in the mid to upper 40s on monday giving way to above
normal mid to upper 50s by thursday.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
overcast skies persist with a mix of vfr and mvfr ceilings this
morning. light rain showers over northwest ohio will spread to
the rest of the forecast area by this afternoon as lake effect
precipitation further develops. rain may occasionally produce
non-vfr visibilities, primarily in the 3-5 sm range. ceilings
will tend to be mvfr, though occasional ifr ceilings will be
possible, especially near kmfd.

as air temperatures cool down tonight, snow could mix in with
rain, mainly for inland locations. this may impact kcak and kyng
with ifr or lower visibilities, and perhaps a light coating of
slushy snow accumulations. otherwise, precipitation transitions
back to rain during the day saturday.

north flow around 10 knots become northwest tonight around 5-7
knots.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend.

&&

.marine...
north to northeast winds around 20 knots are expected this
morning before becoming more north/northwest and briefly
diminishing to 10 to 15 knots for a period this afternoon.
however, winds are expected to increase to 20 to 25 knots in the
western and central basins tonight through most of the weekend.
small craft advisories remain in effect through this afternoon,
but additional headlines (or extensions of existing headlines)
will likely be needed in a future update. the lake-induced
instability will result in a chance of waterspouts wherever
showers occur through saturday morning. by then, winds will
likely be too high for waterspout development. northwest winds
will likely diminish to 10 to 15 knots during the day sunday and
10 knots or less by monday. wind direction will shift to the
west/southwest monday through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
lez144>147.
small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez148-
149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...saunders
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
643 am est fri nov 13 2026

.key messages...

- light lake effect/enhanced rain showers, possibly mixed with
some snow, will continue early this morning across southwest
lower michigan and northwest indiana. no snow accumulation is
expected as most of the lake effect precipitation will remain
anchored across extreme northwest indiana/far northeast
illinois.

- a more dominant band of lake effect rain and snow showers is expected
to shift east into northwest indiana and southwest lower
michigan late tonight into saturday morning. some localized
light snow accumulations of less than an inch are possible
inland and mainly across grassy areas.

- below normal temperatures continue today through the weekend
followed by slowly moderating temperatures into the mid and
upper 50s by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 318 am est fri nov 13 2026

dominant single lake effect band continues to affect extreme nw
indiana early this morning in the gary vicinity. some synoptic
enhanced light precipitation extends east across the local area from
south bend vicinity into southern lower michigan. this area of light
precip appears tied to a lagging secondary low level baroclinic zone
and weak accompanying low level frontogenesis forcing. through the
morning, this band of precip should tend to diminish with near term
low level fgen progs depicting some weakening of this synoptic
forcing.

the dominant band across far nw indiana may try to exhibit some
slight eastward adjustment after daybreak as a broader synoptic
scale upper level short wave drops south across the mid ms valley.
some subtle uptick in low level fgen forcing could aid in some
eastward development this morning as 950-900 mb speed convergence
associated with better northerly flow working south across western
great lakes interacts with thermally modified mass fields over
far southern lake michigan. the more pronounced low level cold
advection this morning working across the western shore of lake
michigan will continue to allow for development of a weak
northerly low level jet across western lake michigan and a
pronounced horizontal shearing zone across the western third of
the lake. this should keep the higher precip rates and dominant
single band anchored along this horizontal shearing instability
axis through the morning hours to the west of the local area.
with some uncertainty in other synoptic factors coming into play
discussed above, did maintain some low to mid range chance pops
extreme west, but not expecting any snow accumulation locally
at this time.

by this afternoon southward passage of another upper level trough
across the western great lakes will likely allow for better lake
effect precip to shift back to the chicago metro area into portions
of far nw indiana. did maintain high chance/low likely rain pops
across far western portions of the forecast area this afternoon, but
it is possible this can be adjusted downward depending on trends.
otherwise for today, little temperature recovery is expected given
weak ongoing cold advection and cloud cover. between clouds across
the west and a possible maintenance of higher cloud cover in east
with lake huron connection, a zone from southwest lower michigan
into the us-15 corridor could experience some sun today. highs will
likely be limited to the low-mid 40s.

for tonight, there should be a lull in the parade of stronger short
waves rotating through the broad negative upper height anomaly which
should allow for some backing of the flow to eventually take better
lake effect precip chances into nw indiana/sw lower mi later tonight
into saturday am. thermal profiles and sfc/near sfc wet bulbs do
appear on the marginal side of rain vs snow in modified airmass
downwind of warmer lake michigan waters. it also appears by late
tonight, some drying of the dgz should take place which will make
snowfall production less efficient and possibly promote more of a
cellular character. did maintain some light accums across la porte
of less than a half inch across mainly grassy areas farther inland,
but currently not expecting any significant travel impacts. lake
effect rain showers in scattered fashion may continue into midday
saturday but should become less organized and cellular through time.

a weak short wave spilling down the central conus/south central
canadian ridge may cause some isolated-scattered light lake effect
rain again by saturday evening, but otherwise dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the weekend as a stable longwave
pattern featuring central conus ridging remains established. this
pattern will be characterized by weak baroclinicity and little day
to day thermal advection. this will promote continued below normal
temperatures through the weekend. looking ahead to next week, the
broad eastern conus negative upper height anomaly should finally
begin to break down allowing for eastward progression of the
longwave ridge as stronger pacific systems moves inland.
temperatures should moderate back to above normal in this pattern
for middle and latter portions of next work week. while thee are
some indications a stronger eastern pacific wave will dampen the
longwave ridge, better quality low level moisture should remain
confined to the southern/central plains so a dry forecast has been
maintained through this forecast valid period.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 641 am est fri nov 13 2026

predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions are expected at the
terminals this morning, with light rain showers at kfwa coming
to an end within the hour. otherwise, light northerly flow
shifts more west-northwest at kfwa through the period, and more
northwest at ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 am est fri nov 13 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect showers return today with some periods of snow mixing
in, mainly during the morning hours.

- minor slushy coating of accumulation is possible across parts of
the thumb and st. clair river vicinity.

- showers steadily shift offshore tonight and saturday, then
turning drier and warm next week.

&&

.aviation...

inverted surface trough with corresponding low convergence has
remained to the east of the taf sites this morning. radar trends
overnight have kept lake effect activity close to the shoreline.
surface observation have shown little evidence yet of a changeover
to snow with dewpoints only slowly settling into the lower 30s. snow
will become increasingly possible as colder air advection takes hold
but a lack of deep moisture should result in light amounts through
the morning. daytime heating with increasing convective depths
brings a better chance 17-23z. prevailing mvfr ceilings is
anticipated. surface high pressure will build towards lower michigan
this evening causing the inverted lake aggregate troughing to fill
or erode. vfr ceilings tonight.

for dtw...light precipitation amounts is expected through this
morning with a rain snow mix possible. chances for precipitation
increase only modestly this afternoon with diurnal heating.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through this afternoon.

* medium for snow as a precipitation type this morning and
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 359 am est fri nov 13 2026

discussion...

a highly amplified omega pattern has settled in over the entirety of
conus this morning, with southeast michigan positioned within the
eastern longwave trough axis. the primary vicinity upper low
eventually centers over pennsylvania today, but its cyclonic wind
field will preserve northerly flow throughout the day. this
dislodges a pocket of colder canadian air across the broader great
lakes region, marked by 850 mb temperatures of 5 to 10 c below zero.
latest lake huron water temperatures are estimated around 10c,
yielding a delta of 15-20c. in combination with favorable fetch,
over lake instability supports the continuation of lake effect
showers through the morning hours, with an expansion in coverage
likely. forecast soundings still support a wide range of
precipitation outcomes given the underlying thermodynamics. the most
likely time-frame for snow to mix in or become established as the
dominant precipitation type is more likely to occur between 09z and
15z when the boundary-layer could support a nearly frozen parcel
path. the main limiting factor that could favor more persistence for
rainfall is the subtle backing of 850 mb/7 kft winds toward the nnw,
introducing a disruptive drying component at the top of the
saturation layer and the bottom of the dgz.

as for model trends, local probabilistic guidance and the nbm have
steeply declined in the spatial coverage of accumulating snow.
additionally, the areas that could see some accumulations, are now
expected to be more limited, mainly downstream of the thumb, and
along the immediate southern lake huron shoreline. this requires
more resilient convergence bands to persist, and then reorient with
the subtle backing of controlling lower column flow. a survey of
recent observations show a lag in cooling/drying which kept
dewpoints above freezing for many locations into the early morning
hours. at press time, no observing equipment were reporting
snowfall. the sites to keep an eye on for today should be kcfs,
kbax, and kphn. should dgz saturation, wet-bulb cooling, and
supporting forcing properly align with sufficient snowfall rates
materialize before temperatures diurnally rise, measurable snowfall
still possible for the aforementioned locations, but this scenario
is becoming less likely and primarily reserved for elevated
surfaces.

and snow-composed shower activity transitions to rain or melting
snow by late morning, and into the afternoon period as flow orients
nnw. this shifts most of the residual lake effect activity further
east, favoring the eastern portions of huron, sanilac, and
(northeastern) st. clair clair counties. temperatures should come in
5 to 10 f below normal, in the lower 40s, but with sustained winds
of 10 to 15 mph, wind chills will start out in the 20s for a few
locations. some lake effect precipitation will exists along the same
corridor overnight.

a secondary upper low within the eastern flank of the blocking
pattern will travel from north to south over the eastern half of the
great lakes, in tandem with a similarly oriented mid-level speed max
on saturday. lake-relevent trajectories should be more northwesterly
at this time, which limits the viability of lake effect showers. the
bulk of showers should again be limited to the st. clair river
vicinity. a couple degrees in thermal rebound could lift readings
into the mid 40s saturday, aided by weak warm advection.

the longwave ridge begins to move eastward into the area saturday
night, with the downstream inflection point overhead sunday. 1030 mb
surface high pressure builds into southern lower michigan with time.
the synoptic ridge then bisects the forecast area monday as surface
flow weakens and flips southwesterly as the center of the surface
wave tracks into eastern ohio. a warming trend is then forecast
through next week as the ridge feature anchors over southern
appalachia with milder gulf-modifed air lifting in. a progressive
and deepening pacific wave unblocks the configuration mid-week, but
is expected to pivot over the upper midwest, likely keeping the
local area dry through the forecast window.

marine...

northerly flow will hold today before backing northwest through the
weekend. this prolonged northerly flow will support efficient mixing
of some stronger winds aloft down to the surface as cooler air
remains in place. this will produce wind gusts around 25 knots along
with elevated wave heights along the lake huron shoreline, where
small craft advisories remain in effect. additionally, near surface
convergence has supported lake effect rain bands across the central
and southern lake huron basins, which will persist into tomorrow.
breezy conditions will start to wind down on sunday once high
pressure builds in over the southern great lakes. this will bring a
period of lighter winds along with dry weather early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est saturday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.