Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
330 pm edt fri may 1 2026

.what has changed...
for tonight into saturday morning, a freeze warning has been
issued for southern erie and crawford counties in pa and a frost
advisory has been issued for most of northern oh. the advisory
excludes erie, lorain, medina, summit, and cuyahoga counties.
the potential for additional precipitation, mainly in the form
of rain, has increased this evening into saturday morning,
especially along and near lake erie in northern oh.

&&

.key messages...
1.) unusually-cold air temperatures persist through this
saturday night. frost and periodic sub-freezing air
temperatures remain a concern. in addition, periodic
precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, is expected through
saturday afternoon.

2.) near-normal to above-normal air temperatures return sunday
through tuesday night, when multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are possible.

3.) below-normal air temperatures return wednesday through
friday, may 8th. additional periods of rain are forecast.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through saturday as a mid/upper-
level low drifts e`ward over west-central qc. at the surface, a
high pressure ridge builds slowly from the north-central united
states and vicinity. this weather pattern evolution at the
surface and aloft will maintain a caa regime and unusually-cold
air temperatures across our region. partial clearing and easing
surface winds tonight will allow low temperatures to mainly
reach the lower to mid 30`s saturday morning where the freeze
warning and frost advisory are in effect. elsewhere, including
the lake erie islands, lows in the upper 30`s to lower 40`s are
expected as lake-effect cloud cover contributes to less
nocturnal cooling. on saturday, partly to mostly cloudy sky and
peeks of sunshine should be accompanied by afternoon highs
reaching only the mid 40`s to lower 50`s.

widespread rain associated with moist isentropic ascent aloft,
ahead of a shortwave trough axis, will continue to depart our
cwa generally from west to east through this early evening.
primarily dry weather is then expected through saturday courtesy
of stabilizing subsidence accompanying the building ridge.
however, moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of a separate
shortwave trough axis, should generate isolated to scattered
showers late this afternoon through early saturday afternoon as
the shortwave trough axis advances from the western great lakes
toward western ny and western pa. a mainly nw`erly mean low-level
flow of unusually-cold and sufficiently-moist air over/downwind
of ~11c lake erie and the development of weak lake-induced
instability should allow periodic lake-effect rain showers to
stream generally se`ward across portions of nw oh and especially
ne oh and nw pa during this mid-evening through early saturday
afternoon before lake-effect precip ends in response to lake-
induced cape waning via a lowering subsidence inversion. rain
should be the predominant precip type this evening into
saturday, but rain may mix with or change to wet snow at times
overnight tonight into saturday morning in the higher terrain of
ne oh and nw pa. any snow accumulations are expected to be less
than 0.5" and confined to the higher terrain of nw pa.

during saturday night, nw`erly flow aloft and dry weather are
expected as a shortwave ridge builds from the western great
lakes and the surface portion of the ridge continues to build
from the west. considerable clearing and weak or calm surface
winds will contribute to significant nocturnal cooling.
accordingly, lows should reach mainly the upper 20`s to mid 30`s
and areas of frost are expected to form around daybreak sunday.
another frost advisory and freeze warning will be needed.

key message 2...

on sunday, the ridge at the surface and aloft will depart e`ward
and allow a warm front to sweep n`ward through our region. the
warm front passage is expected to be dry due to a relatively-dry
low-level atmospheric column. waa at the surface and aloft, along
the backside of the ridge, will contribute to late afternoon
highs reaching the mid 50`s to lower 60`s.

primarily cyclonic and sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances should impact our region sunday night
through tuesday night. at the surface, the aforementioned ridge
will continue to exit generally e`ward, subtle surface trough
axes, tied to the shortwave troughs aloft, will traverse our
area, and a cold front should sweep se`ward through our region
tuesday evening through tuesday night. periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected as weak to moderate cape, including
elevated cape, is released by low-level convergence/moist ascent
along the surface trough axes and cold front, and by moist
isentropic ascent aloft ahead of shortwave trough axes. ahead of
the cold front, low-level waa should be accompanied by lows
reaching the 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak monday, late
afternoon highs reaching the 60`s to lower 70`s on monday,
overnight lows reaching the 50`s around daybreak tuesday, and
late afternoon highs reaching the 60`s to 70f on tuesday. lows
should reach the 40`s around daybreak wednesday as colder air
overspreads our region behind the cold front.

key message 3...

cyclonic w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs should
impact the southern great lakes and oh valley on wednesday
through friday and be accompanied by primarily below-normal air
temperatures. this pattern should allow net surface troughing
to affect our cwa. periodic rain showers are forecast due to
moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of shortwave trough axes,
and low-level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough
axes.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
rain continues across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
this afternoon. this is on the northwest side of low pressure
over eastern ohio. rain will diminish through 22z as low
pressure tracks into new york this evening. some ifr ceilings will
accompany the rain over the next few hours before lifting to
mvfr and then vfr for tonight. winds are transitioning to
northwest/north behind the above mentioned low through 20z but
will tend to remain 10 knots or less.

while some breaks in the clouds are expected tonight, lake
effect clouds and showers are expected to develop off of central
lake erie and may impact cle, with lesser confidence of reaching
mfd or cak between 06-15z. clouds will tend to break away from
the lake by afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms late monday through wednesday as a cold front
moves southeast across the area.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon will decrease
tonight. winds back to southwesterly on saturday night as high
pressure settles south to the ohio valley. winds increase to
15-20 knots by sunday night but flow will be offshore through
monday. winds shift to northerly behind a cold front on tuesday
night and a window of small craft advisories may be needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt saturday for ohz003-
006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-089.
frost advisory from 10 pm this evening to 9 am edt saturday
for ohz012>014-022-023-032-033.
pa...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt saturday for paz001.
freeze warning from 10 pm this evening to 9 am edt saturday
for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
140 pm edt fri may 1 2026

.key messages...

- a few showers moving through this afternoon, look to dissipate
by this evening.

- a combination of a freeze warning and frost advisory has been
issued for our area for tonight as temperatures settle in the
30s and potentially into the upper 20s.

- additional frost/freeze conditions possible early sunday as well
before warmer temperatures arrive sunday into monday.

- opportunities for showers and storms return early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 102 pm edt fri may 1 2026

the main upper low across the northern great lakes/south-central
canada slowly lifts northeastward saturday into saturday night. this
allows occasional spokes of vorticity to swing through the area with
the first one pushing eastward this morning. some remnant
instability helped along by the colder air arriving aloft, as
opposed to what has been enhanced surface warming, continues to
enhance light showers or drizzle this afternoon.

with the upper low placed where it is, it`s also in a good spot to
continue pushing cool air into the area. with 850 mb temperatures
down around -5c tonight, hints at decoupling in nam bufkit
soundings, and winds going light to calm between 00z and 06z, an
attempt at a freeze will be made. model probabilities of 30f across
the area appear slightly lower than yesterday and this may be
because of the chance for clouds to come into northwestern areas.
given the dry air arriving from the northwest, it may be that a
sudden drop through the 30s towards freezing occurs, but clouds
arriving from the northwest may provide a bit of a blanket to
keep us at or potentially slightly above freezing, thus adding
some uncertainty. still the greatest chance to see below
freezing temperatures is across the heart of our forecast area. as
we head into the daytime saturday, surface high pressure moving
in dries things out and we achieve the low 50s for highs.

we`ve got another opportunity for freezing/frost sunday morning,
which can still happen even as warm advection begins moving in late
during the overnight (as happens this time). it does appear that the
better chance for frost/freeze will be shifted eastward, east of
in-15, compared to what is forecast for tonight. it may be more
of a widespread frost with outlying areas receiving a freeze,
though. clouds look to arrive again towards morning, sunday,
with a theta-e plume and weak low/weak vort max arriving during
the afternoon. so, even though the nam and gfs want to bring the
rain in here during the morning, am a little bit more inclined
to keep our forecast of afternoon arrival running.

sunday night lows are warmer as the warm advection helps to cause a
warming trend with low 70s for highs on monday. a deepening low
pressure system dives southward from canada and ends up in the
northern great lakes. this pushes a frontal boundary southward which
draws gulf moisture towards the area. it still looks like sfc dew
points stay below 60f while 850 mb dew points stay below 10c and
pwats are only around 1", which leans around normal and tends to put
a ceiling on heavier rain chances. additionally, it appears that an
eml moves through during sunday night, but mixes out monday morning.
we`ll have some effective shear to work with as well as some low
level turning, but both instability and shear appear to drop off
after sunset, which points to this scenario being limited by
instability since we don`t have moisture or mid level lapse rates to
help sustain after sunset. the one thing to watch will be the series
of fronts/boundaries coming down and serving as places for storms to
become rooted for spinups during the afternoon/evening or a hydro
issue into the overnight. depending on where the front stalls, rain
chances will be possible, especially for areas south of us-24
tuesday and wednesday (perhaps with a sfc low developing on the
series of fronts in the area), but severe chances appear low with
the front having moved through.

the vorticity-filled trough swings through the area wednesday night
into the weekend and brings opportunities for scattered instability
showers caused by the cooler upper air as opposed to warmer sfc air
that we`ve been having. highs in the 50s and 60s appear common and
frost may be possible wednesday or thursday night next week as temps
threaten the 30s at night then.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 131 pm edt fri may 1 2026

mainly vfr category diurnal clouds currently over the area in
the wake of the disturbance that brought the rainfall overnight
will see incoming ridging bring lighter winds and clearing
skies. vfr conditions expected through the remainder of the taf
forecast with diurnal cumulus again developing mainly for kfwa
after 16z sat. a few remaining diurnally driven northwesterly
gusts around 20 kts possible for ksbn this afternoon but will
see winds at both sites trend lighter into the overnight period
before a slight increase returns for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...freeze warning from 2 am edt /1 am cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am cdt/
saturday for inz005>009-014-017-018-024>027-103-104-116-
203-204-216.
frost advisory from 2 am edt /1 am cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am cdt/
saturday for inz012-013-015-020-022-023-032>034.
oh...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am edt saturday for ohz001-004-
015-024.
frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt saturday for ohz002-005-
016-025.
mi...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am edt saturday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
256 pm edt fri may 1 2026

.key messages...

- scattered light rain showers are possible this afternoon.

- a freeze warning is in effect for all of southeast michigan
tonight.

- only stray shower chance saturday though most stay dry. dry
conditions hold through early sunday before rain and thunderstorm
chances rise early next week.

&&

.discussion...

pattern remains unchanged today with southern lower mi holding under
broad upper troughing with weak caa supporting a widely scattered
coverage of light showers/sprinkles. lingering showers wind down
around sunset as diurnal instability wanes however exactly how much
of the accompanying cloud cover clears tonight carries a high degree
of uncertainty with a healthy spread amongst the high res solution
space. there is fairly good agreement that areas west of i-75/us-23
stand the best chance at true clearing and subsequent sub-freezing
temps. for areas east, there is some potential for enough meaningful
cloud to remain to keep temps near or slightly above 32. with that
said, will err on the cooler side in coordination with neighbor wfos
and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning.

largely a persistence forecast saturday as thermal troughing holds
over the state for one last day capping highs around 50f. passage of
a trailing vort max offers a slight chance for a few isolated/widely
scattered afternoon showers however forecast soundings advertise a
shallower saturation layer relative to previous days keeping any
coverage minimal.

trough influence breaks down saturday night as zonal or quasi-zonal
mid-level flow develops allowing elevated theta-e advection to be
drawn into lower mi sunday. light scattered shower chances increase
latter half of the day sunday as a weak embedded shortwave crosses
into the great lakes. main warm advection arrives early monday as
deep layer southwesterly flow is established in response to an
alaskan wave digging into the northern plains. 850mb temps rise from
4-5c mon am to 8-9c by mon pm supporting highs returning to the 60s
to around 70. associated surface cold front looks to arrive over the
central great lakes monday evening-night bringing the area`s next
shot at wider spread showers and thunderstorms. while a general
active, cooler pattern is favored for much of the week, how
progressive this surface front and parent upper trough are is still
unclear this far out.

&&

.marine...

a large and slow moving upper level low will stall over the great
lakes through upcoming weekend. meanwhile we`ll have a broad area of
high pressure at the surface. this combination will lead to a fairly
quiet stretch of marine weather with mainly clouds and light winds
(gusts under 15 knots) through saturday with an opportunity for a
light shower mainly in the afternoon hours. wind direction holds
from the north to northwest through saturday before wind direction
backs to the southwest sunday and holds through early next week as a
warm front passes through the great lakes. gusts on sunday could
reach 25 knots on sunday behind the front in some of the nearshore
zones. there will be additional chances for rain showers and a low
chance for an embedded thunderstorm early next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 118 pm edt fri may 1 2026

aviation...

light northwest winds (up to around 10 knots) this afternoon brings
modest drier air, lifting cloud bases 4-8 kft range. seasonally cold
air aloft and diurnal heating will still offer up isolated-scattered
light showers this afternoon into early evening hours. left a
residual mid cloud deck in for the overnight hours, but confidence is
low, and may end up being mostly clear. diurnal heating tomorrow
likely leads to some vfr flat cu, and may be enough to produce cigs
over southern tafs where there is a little better moisture.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for cigs aoa 5000 feet through this evening, then low.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am edt saturday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......drk
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.