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Lucas and Wood Counties

link
000
fxus61 kcle 290757
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
357 am edt fri mar 29 2024

.synopsis...
high pressure remains in control through the afternoon. a warm
front moves into the region overnight with a weakening ripple
of low pressure moving eastward along it through saturday
evening. a cold front crosses the region from west to east
saturday afternoon into the evening, high pressure briefly
wedges overhead from the north on sunday.

&&

.near term /through saturday/...
decent piece of jet energy digging into the upper level trough
that is just east of the area. not all that much moisture to
lift at the lower levels. however there is enough middle level
moisture to allow for cloud cover across the southern half of
the cwa from findlay to canton.

skies should clear through mid morning with sunshine expected
into the afternoon. the sun will gradually become filtered by
late afternoon through sunset as clouds increase from the
southwest. these clouds continue to thicken and gradually lower
into the overnight hours as a warm front lifts into northern
ohio by sunrise saturday. isentropic lift should spread rain
across the region from southwest to northeast through sunrise.
there may be just enough elevated instability to allow for the
mention of some thunder. seems like it could be isolated to
scattered in coverage.

highs today will range from the lower 40`s across nw pa to the
upper 50`s across the southwestern cwa. lows tonight may dip to
the upper 20`s early across nw pa. the remainder of the region
should remain in the 30`s to lower 40`s.

warm front will become the path that weakening low pressure
tracks along on saturday. current thinking is that the boundary
remain south of the lake with the main area of lift/rainfall
moving across the region from west to east through early
afternoon. there could be some elevated instability over the
region so will mention thunderstorms, but coverage of thunder
likely remains isolated to scattered. the steadier rain may
then linger across ne oh into nw pa into the late afternoon with
precipitation ending across the west as a weakening cold front
sags southward toward southern ohio where it will stall. cloud
cover and the rain will assist with tempering the increase in
warmth. however highs will still range from the lower 50`s
across nw pa to the mid 60s in the vicinity of findlay.

&&

.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
a shortwave will exit to the east saturday night into early sunday,
allowing most precip to exit the area as the frontal boundary sags
south into the ohio valley and high pressure briefly builds over the
region. most of the area should experience dry weather sunday
morning and perhaps into sunday afternoon before the boundary begins
to lift north as a warm front sunday night and another shortwave
ejects east into the region as a surface low begins to take shape
over the plains. likely to categorical pops return to most of the
cwa during this time and continue into monday as a series of
disturbances ripple across the warm front, although there is still a
bit of uncertainty in the northward propagation of the warm front
and the resulting northward extent of the highest pops. there may be
a few periods of dry weather in the northern half of the cwa
especially monday afternoon and early afternoon, but the next round
of rain will likely arrive from the west by monday night as a trough
advances east towards the cwa.

there`s still concern for heavy rainfall/training precipitation
leading to flooding sunday night through monday; pw values will be
unseasonably high and forecast soundings indicate deep moisture in
addition to the potential of flow being nearly parallel to the warm
front. any precip prior to sunday night will only help prime
rivers/soils and soil moisture is already relatively high (30 to 60%
as of writing) across the area.

as of now, the severe weather threat is low since the warm front
might only nose into the southern portion of the cwa before the
trough approaches monday evening into monday night. however, as
stated above, there`s still uncertainty in the northward propagation
of the warm front; the severe weather threat may increase if the
warm sector shifts farther north. regardless, there may be
sufficient instability for thunderstorms.

temperatures warm during the short term period with highs reaching
the upper 50s to lower 60s in the southern half of the area sunday
and especially monday. temperatures will generally be in the low to
mid 50s closer to lake erie with the coolest temps downwind from
lake erie. expect lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s sunday night
and slightly warmer lows monday night.

&&

.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
active weather continues into the long term period. the
aforementioned trough will continue to dig into the upper midwest
before developing into a vertically stacked low somewhere over the
midwest tuesday and possibly lifting near or over the cwa tuesday
night. despite uncertainty in the track of the low, most
deterministic guidance has the low phasing into a coastal low off
the mid-atlantic coast at some point wednesday or wednesday night.
to make a long story short, it appears that the soggy (and breezy)
weather could continue through the majority of the long term period
with periodic synoptic rain showers likely through wednesday and
lake-enhanced rain/snow showers potentially developing as cold air
advection settles in on the backside of the low wednesday night into
thursday morning.

tuesday will be the warmest day of the period with highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. cooler temps arrive for mid to late week
with highs in the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s anticipated
wednesday and thursday. overnight lows will most likely dip into the
lower 30s wednesday night.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
ceilings down to around 5000 feet will occur near and south of
a kmnn to kmfd to canton line through 10z. these clouds then
decrease and move east of the region with an upper level jet.
vfr conditions are expected areawide into the evening. ceilings
increase and gradually lower from the southwest to northeast
through the overnight hours as a warm front approaches northern
oh. showers may reach kfdy and ktol by 06z then spread eastward
through sunrise. cant rule out some thunder but believe the
coverage will be isolated to scattered at best. will not include
this in the 06z taf`s but may by 12z.

winds should be light and variable through mid morning. speeds
increase from the west by afternoon at around 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and/or lower ceilings on
saturday, then lingering across ne oh into nw pa into sunday
morning. additional non-vfr likely monday into tuesday.
thunderstorms possible saturday afternoon/evening and on
monday.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds 6 to 12 knots continue through this afternoon before
shifting to the southwest this afternoon into this evening. winds
will likely briefly increase to 15 to 20 knots in the far eastern
basin of the lake late this afternoon, but the highest waves will
likely be focused northeast into the ny waters of lake erie so opted
to not issue a small craft advisory with this update. winds become
southeasterly and diminish below 15 knots tonight into saturday
before shifting to the northwest and increasing to 10 to 20 knots
saturday night, which could result in a brief/marginal small craft
advisory before winds and waves decrease by early sunday morning.
light and variable winds continue through sunday, but northeast flow
develops over the lake sunday night through tuesday morning. winds
may briefly approach 20 knots in the open waters, however as of now
the highest waves will be primarily confined to the canadian waters.
the next small craft advisory may be needed as early as tuesday
afternoon as winds shift to the northwest, but currently have sub-
advisory winds and waves until wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
ny...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...mm
near term...mm
short term...maines
long term...maines
aviation...mm
marine...maines

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
000
fxus63 kiwx 290558
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
158 am edt fri mar 29 2024

.key messages...

* warming continues into tomorrow with highs mid 50s to mid 60s

* showers and chances for storms friday night into saturday morning

* several rounds of rain and storms expected late sunday through
tuesday. hydro concerns may arise during this time

&&

.discussion...
issued at 215 pm edt thu mar 28 2024

tonight into friday will feature mainly dry and warmer wx as upper
ridging expands over the central us. there remains non-zero
chances for a few sprinkles/showers tonight south of us 30 as a
weak mid level impulse tops a developing baroclinic zone lifting
into these areas. the weak forcing in conjunction with a very
dry sub-cloud layer doesn`t bode well for anything more than a
10-20% type pop. friday will be a pleasant late march day with
low amplitude ridging through the column. the frontal zone does
linger in the vicinity with highs mid-upper 50s north to the
low-mid 60s south.

a periodically active/wet pattern will become established friday
night through tuesday as moisture streams northward into an
oscillating west-east oriented frontal zone. this will occur under a
series of mid level impulses that will eject east in advance of a
deep western conus longwave trough modeled to release east through
the local area by tuesday.

the first modest shortwave and associated moisture convergence on
the nose of a ~50 kt low level jet will bring showers and chances
for elevated convection friday night as a sfc frontal wave likely
tracks east near the mi border. no severe threat with this wave,
though wouldn`t be surprised if there is some small hail and locally
heavy rainfall rates. shower/storm intensity and coverage then wanes
from west to east mid morning through early afternoon on saturday as
the frontal wave shifts off to the east. this will force the frontal
zone south toward the oh river by saturday night and sunday morning
with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions anticipated.

the baroclinic zone will become increasingly active sunday night
through tuesday as the approaching upper trough takes on a positive
tilt with low pressure tracking east through the oh valley by later
monday and tuesday. rounds of rain and embedded thunder are likely
in this regime, especially given the abundance of moisture getting
pulled north into the frontal system. at this range models continue
to differ on where exactly the axis of heavier rain and potential
hydro issues will set up (overhead or just south). current
projections also favor areas to the south for strong/severe
convection monday into tuesday, though this and heavy rainfall
will need to be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 142 am edt fri mar 29 2024

vfr conditions with light and somewhat variable winds are
expected at the taf sites. surface high pressure over the
terminals will keep both sites dry, with mainly high cloud cover
to contend with. towards the end of the period, a warm front
will lift northward and bring us chances for rain showers. a few
thunderstorms are not out of the question, especially after 6z,
however left out of the taf for now given lower confidence on
timing and extent of coverage.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
000
fxus63 kdtx 290747
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
347 am edt fri mar 29 2024

.key messages...

- mostly sunny and seasonal temperatures today.

- widespread showers arrive saturday morning. some rumbles of
thunder will be possible.

- additional showers will again be possible sunday and monday while
temperatures settle near seasonal averages.

&&

.discussion...

a diffuse high pressure system over the great lakes with antecedent
dry conditions highlighted by an expansive dry low-level airmass
within water vapor imagery have supported clear skies through the
overnight hours. this brings a chilly start to the day, where
temperatures now reside in the upper 20s. little change to the
synoptic pattern outside of some gradually building heights within
the mid-level ridge will continue to support dry weather and clear
conditions through the day. a subtle increase in warm air advection
coupled with solar insolation will support daytime highs in the low
to mid 50s, with some locally cooler temperatures across the thumb.

low-level warm air advection will then ramp up tonight into early
tomorrow morning in response to an upper wave and low pressure
system that builds into the midwest. a 60 knots low level jet from
h850 through h700 will build in across indiana and ohio just
downstream of the low pressure, which will advect the nose of gulf
moisture into the southern michigan. forcing along the nose of this
jet will be maximized south of the state line, but will clip
portions of se mi south of i-94 by the mid-morning hours. this will
also elicit a decent frontogenetic response across mi, generally
from fremont to monroe, with frontolysis taking place through the
late morning hours, given the unfavorable zonality of the llj across
indiana and ohio. taking into consideration mid-level forcing from
the upper-level shortwave and even a couple hours of upper-level
divergence from right entrance dynamics from the extension of the
atlantic jet, the expectation is for widespread rain to fill in over
se mi through the morning hours. have increased pop values for all
of se mi, placing categorical (>80%) south of m59, where the low-
level forcing is maximized. some rumbles of thunder will be possible
here, respecting the deeper layer forcing, but sbcape/mucape will not
be present which is an inhibiting factor. locations north will
likely see lighter rain (70% chance) through the morning as a
secondary sheared wave moves in along the cyclonically sheared side
of an approaching jet stream.

there are some questions as to how well temperatures will recover
within the wake of the passing low/wave. there is higher confidence
that warmer air and stronger mechanical mixing, tapping into warmer
air aloft, will fill in along or south of i-94 in the afternoon,
promoting temperature highs in the mid to upper 50s. the question is
how far north the warm nose will get into se mi. the 10th percentile
within the eps has max highs of 44-45 degrees across arb to dtw,
supporting a lower-end possibility that the warm sector fails to
breach up to i-94. locations removed from the warm sector (highest
probability along and north of i-69) will likely stay capped in the
40s with sustained drizzle possible noting boundary layer moisture
extending through 5kft.

high pressure will build back in across the great lakes sunday
morning into the early afternoon, producing dry weather with highs
in the low 50s. the main feature to watch through the early week
period (late sunday to early tuesday morning) will be the baroclinic
zone and stationary front that is expected to set up somewhere over
southern michigan or down across the northern ohio river valley.
this will be the focal point for prolonged rainfall, heavy at times,
from overrunning along the front. ensemble variance is large at this
time regarding where exactly the front will settle. through the
midweek period, an upper-level wave will carve into the midwest,
enhancing the longwave trough pattern across the eastern us. this
will bring additional chances for precipitation (rain to a rain/snow
mix) during the midweek period.

&&

.marine...

a narrow ridge of high pressure extending southeast from manitoba
drifts over the region today, resulting in predominantly wnw winds
at around 10 to 15 knots. the next low pressure moves through the
southern great lakes on saturday, bringing rain and snow to parts of
the region. winds organize out of the e/ne ahead of the system early
saturday then shift to nw as it passes by to the south saturday
night. high pressure builds in early sunday with benign weather and
light, variable winds. this will be short-lived as multiple
disturbances then track across the region sunday night through the
early week. at this time winds look to remain below marine headline
criteria.

&&

.hydrology...

widespread rainfall will move in across se mi through saturday
morning. the heaviest rainfall is expected to fall along or south of
the i-94 corridor, where rainfall totals around a quarter-inch will
be possible. rainfall totals around a half-inch cannot be ruled out,
but will likely stayed confined to or south of the state line. rain
is expected to exit the region through saturday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1133 pm edt thu mar 28 2024

aviation...

vfr conditions hold tonight and friday, as dry and stable low level
conditions maintain a stretch of clear skies. modest winds remain
from the west tonight, persisting into friday. high cloud thickness
as winds flip to a light easterly flow in advance of a warm front
early friday night. shower potential increases with an associated
reduction in cloud base starting saturday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......tf
hydrology....am
aviation.....mr


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The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.