Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
946
fxus61 kcle 052336
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
736 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

.what has changed...
slightly increased chances for lake-effect rain showers late
tonight and sunday morning in nw and north central ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler and much less humid conditions will move in tonight,
and a ne flow will bring lake-effect showers to nw and north
central ohio late tonight into sunday morning.

2) seasonable and dry weather is expected sunday afternoon
through the rest of the holiday weekend before a brief period
of hot, humid, and unsettled weather returns mid week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mid/upper water vapor loops this afternoon show the broad
ridge finally being shunted farther west into the plains as a
trough deepens across the great lakes and northeast u.s. this
will bring the much anticipated airmass change by this evening
and tonight as canadian high pressure at the surface builds down
across the great lakes. a secondary cold front currently sinking
south and west through the area is advecting in the lower dew
points, with surface observations falling into the 50s in far ne
ohio and nw pa. these lower dew points will continue to spread
south and west behind the front through the evening.

the drier air and high pressure will allow for a pleasantly
cool night, with lows in the low/mid 50s away from the lake.
this will set up a much different day sunday, with skies
becoming mostly sunny and highs only in the mid/upper 70s. the
one caveat to the cooler, quieter weather is growing potential
for lake-effect rain showers tonight through sunday morning. ne
boundary layer flow will lead to bands of showers impacting nw
and north central ohio, especially between the islands and
toledo, but areas immediately near the lakeshore from lorain to
erie, pa could be clipped by brief showers as well. increased
pops for this potential late tonight into sunday morning. the
long northeasterly fetch and 850 mb temps falling below 10 c
will support a few hundred joules of lake induced cape, and low-
level convergence will also aid in band development, so
confidence is increasing for showers. relatively shallow low-
level moisture should at least keep the activity fairly light.
otherwise, the seasonably cool and dry weather will continue
through labor day monday.

key message 2...
the large canadian high will drift into the mid atlantic tuesday
and tuesday night as the central conus mid/upper ridge once
again expands east into the ohio and tennessee valleys. this
will set up return southerly flow and advect the hot and humid
air back into the area for midweek. highs tuesday will get back
into the low/mid 80s with a noticeable increase in humidity, and
some 90s are possible wednesday as the heat and humidity becomes
firmly reestablished. shortwave energy topping the building
ridge tuesday night/wednesday morning combined with a low-level
jet impinging on the lifting warm front could spark some showers
and thunderstorms in ne ohio and nw pa, but left things dry at
this time. better potential for showers and thunderstorms will
come late wednesday and wednesday night as a strong northern
stream mid/upper shortwave trough digs into the great lakes with
a deep associated surface low progressing through northern
ontario and quebec. this will push a cold front through the
region wednesday night. depending on timing of the frontal
passage, strong to severe storms will be possible since jet
dynamics look impressive. the front will be slow to push south,
so expect showers to continue thursday, especially south of a
findlay to youngstown line before canadian high pressure returns
friday and saturday. so, after the brief midweek heat and storms,
cooler, drier, and less humid air will return thursday through
saturday.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
terminals have dried out with widespread improvement to vfr this
evening. by early sunday morning some patchy fog may develop
along the i-75 corridor. a brief period of mvfr visibilites is
possible at ktol/kfdy through daybreak. outside of any fog,
widespread vfr is expected across terminals through the taf
period. sct/bkn ceilings of 5kft remain possible during sunday
afternoon.

north to northeast winds of 5-10 knots will become light and
variable overnight tonight. north to northeast winds return
sunday morning and continue through the period with occasional
gusts nearest the lakeshore on sunday up to 20 knots.

outlook...non- vfr possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
as a cold front moves south of the area today, north to
northeast winds will gradually increase to 10-20 knots into
monday. this wind direction should result in waves building
across the central basin to 2-4 feet. there may need to be a
small craft advisory, especially for sunday afternoon, but given
the overall weak flow and very marginal conditions opted to not
issue one now. calm conditions return monday evening through
tuesday before a more robust low pressure system impacts the
region on wednesday. the increased gradient with this midweek
system should increase southwest winds to 20-25 knots and will
likely require additional marine headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...13
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
920
fxus63 kiwx 052234
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- second half of the holiday weekend will be dry and seasonably
pleasant.

- temperatures and humidity will increase somewhat tuesday into
wednesday, but not to the levels of this past week.

- chances for showers and storms (20 to 30%) return mainly
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

the holiday weekend started off on the warm, humid and for some
stormy side. however, the pesky upper ridge aiding in this pattern
will retrograde somewhat and allow a brief return to more seasonable
temperatures (around 80 in the afternoon and 50s at night) through
the remainder of the extended weekend. thereafter, the ridge tries
to edge back ne tuesday allowing slightly warmer and more humid
conditions to return (still dry). a trough scoots across the
northern us mid week, flattening out the ridge and allowing a weak
boundary to linger in the area with some low end chances for showers
and storms mainly wed night into thursday.

additional waves pass north of the area, helping to limit the ridge
from building back in (dangerous heat and humidity remains south of
the area) with possibly some chances for showers and storms with
each wave into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 634 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

a brief period of mvfr ceilings remain possible early this
evening near a southward sinking low level trough. vfr/dry
otherwise tonight into sunday as northeasterly winds (5-10
knots) usher in a drier/cooler air mass.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
911
fxus63 kdtx 052300
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
700 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures with lower humidity with exist through early
next week.

- next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

cold front has cleared much of the southeast michigan airspace.
incoming high pressure is driving northeast flow with a substantial
amount of drying occuring in the surface layer. winds near the
surface will take some time this evening to calm out - thus duration
of fog formation window will be somewhat limited. so, aside from
some ground fog formation - not anticipating impactful reductions in
visibility. diurnal cumulus will quickly develop sunday - however
coverage is expected to remain scattered in nature.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not expected through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 339 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

discussion...

broad area of surface high pressure continues to build south from
ontario late this afternoon and will maintain influence throughout
the remainder of the weekend. lingering axis of higher low level
moisture quality still extends from near grand rapids southeast into
the i-94 to ohio border corridor late this afternoon. there remains
potential for a few isolated showers to emerge yet through peak
heating along this gradient through early evening. otherwise, deep
layer stability and subsidence will dominate through this period.
lingering late day diurnal cu will fade into the evening with the
loss of daytime heating and steady influx of drier air. low
temperatures overnight will range from the mid-50s across northern
and rural areas to the lower 60s closer to the detroit metro area.
high pressure anchors directly over the central great lakes on
sunday. mostly sunny skies during the day will yield seasonable
highs in the upper 70s with dew points remaining comfortably in the
50s.

low-to-mid level ridging over the central plains will drift eastward
directly over the great lakes early in the week. broad subsidence
and a very dry atmospheric column will maintain abundant sunshine
and pleasant conditions across southeast michigan on monday. high
temperatures will remain at near seasonal norms in the upper 70s
with dew points remaining capped in the upper 50s to lower 60s. by
tuesday, the high pressure center shifts east toward the atlantic
seaboard, allowing low-level flow to veer around to the south-
southwest. warm air advection across the ohio valley will lift
daytime highs back into the lower 80s. the daytime hours on tuesday
are expected to remain mostly dry under warm return flow, though
high clouds will gradually thicken from west to east by late
afternoon.

a strong pacific upper-level disturbance will traverse southern
canada, flattening the great lakes ridge and driving a surface low
across ontario. an accompanying cold front will sweep south through
lower michigan wednesday. moisture return ahead of the boundary will
push dew points back up, supporting the next round of scattered
showers and rumbles of thunder starting late tuesday night and
peaking on wednesday. temperatures will spike into the mid-to-upper
80s wednesday ahead of the frontal passage before cooler, drier air
returns for the second half of the week.

marine...

favorable marine conditions are forecast through the weekend as high
pressure builds south from central ontario, eventually settling over
lake huron. this should promote stable and mainly dry conditions
into early next week as more tranquil conditions take root. the next
chance for increasing winds and waves arrives tuesday night into
wednesday ahead of a low pressure system. the stronger gulf-
modified southwesterly flow and the low`s associated warm/cold
fronts should lead to rising thunderstorm chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...mr
marine.......mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.