Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
764
fxus61 kcle 232331
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the upcoming forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania this evening into
early tonight. locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small
hail is possible this evening.

2) cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers
continue across parts of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through early tuesday.

3) scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible wednesday
night into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper-level low remains situated over the great lakes region
today with the occluded surface low right along the
ontario/quebec border. a compact mid-level shortwave trough is
working its way around western edge of the upper low and will
approach the forecast from the north this evening. paired with
the left exit region of a jet streak over the western great
lakes and we have solid forcing for ascent and pretty good
confidence in timing and areal extent of precipitation this
evening into early tonight.

we start with scattered showers and storms areawide this
afternoon as mlcape exceeds 250 j/kg underneath the jet streak
forcing. the impending shortwave will focus a better period of
thunderstorm development roughly along and northeast of i-80 in
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania between 7 pm and 12
am. this is where mlcape will be greatest (>500 j/kg) and
exists the chance for organized convection that will have the
potential for lightning, gusty winds (most likely in the 40-50
mph range), small hail, and heavy rain.

while the mid-level speed max will be offset to the southwest,
effective bulk shear of around 25-35 knots should be sufficient
for an organized convection. deep layer shear should be enough
to produce strong winds but lack of dcape and waning low-level
lapse rates is likely to make 40-50 mph gusts more common rather
than 58+ mph (severe thunderstorm warning criteria). small hail
is likely to be pretty common in most thunderstorms this
evening, aided by low freezing heights around 8-9kft and modest
mid-level lapse rates. large hail at or exceeding 1" is unlikely
but possible with any rotating updrafts.

heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms with minor flooding
possible is low-lying or flood-prone areas. precipitation is
unlikely to reach amounts for flash flooding.

key message 2..
below normal temperatures continue through at least tuesday with
lake effect rain showers continuing tonight through tuesday
morning. rain is likely to be more more persistent in northwest
pennsylvania, compared to the "snowbelt" region of northeast
ohio where rain showers will be more intermittent.

key message 3...
temperatures and humidity build back to near normal wednesday
and thursday ahead of our next upper-level trough and low
pressure system. scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected wednesday night into thursday with pops peaking in the
40-60% range. can`t completely rule out severe weather, but at
this point most storms look to remain sub-severe.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr is expected across the western terminals through the taf
period as periodic lake effect showers and clouds impact
terminals from kcle eastward. a round of showers/thunderstorms
are moving over lake erie currently and will impact kcle and
keri through the next few hours. stronger gusts to around 30
knots out of the northwest are possible if thunderstorms impact
station. lingering showers are possible, especially at keri,
behind the thunderstorms. confidence is lower in showers impact
kyng and kcak. all terminals except keri will dry out after
midnight tonight with vfr ceilings expected across the region
tomorrow.

gusts will begin to subside over the next hour and will be
sustained at around 10 knots out of the west-northwest. winds
will pick up again around 14-15z tomorrow and gusts up to 20
knots are expected throughout the day.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lake effect rain and/or low
ceilings in far ne oh and nw pa monday into tuesday. non-vfr
may return in showers and thunderstorms wednesday night into
thursday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will continue across much of lake erie
through monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25
knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. marine conditions will
gradually improve monday night into tuesday as winds subside to 10
knots or less. winds will shift towards the south to southwest on
wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by thursday.

a few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across
the central and eastern basin of lake erie through this evening,
associated with showers and thunderstorms. there is also a risk for
waterspouts into tuesday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through monday afternoon for ohz009-
010.
beach hazards statement through monday evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through monday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until midnight edt monday night for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...23
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
211
fxus63 kiwx 232220
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

.key messages...

- breezy prior to sunset with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
mph.

- dangerous swimming conditions through this evening on
southern lake michigan with a high swim risk.

- seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity through
tuesday.

- next opportunity for rain and storms arrives wednesday
afternoon and evening (30-60% chance).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1241 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

we are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy
conditions, and cooler temperatures! a low pressure system has
departed the upper great lakes region and is currently located over
southern ontario. isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on
radar this afternoon as the system`s attendant mid level trough
pivots through northern indiana. northwest cyclonic flow and delta
ts of ~14c (water temps ~24c, 10c at 850mb tonight) over lake
michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until
sunset. in addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from
the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to
generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and
evening. northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with
gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. breezy conditions and
caa will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast lake
michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening.
a beach hazards statement is in effect for la porte and berrien
counties through 11 pm edt tonight. there is a high swim risk today
with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. strong rip and
structural currents are also expected! if your weekend plans include
heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings
from lifeguards and stay out of the water!

an area of high pressure located over the midwest with build into
the great lakes region early in the week. much lower humidity and
several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing
early fall-like days. highs on monday will be in the mid to upper
70s and highs on tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually
warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. clear skies
and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are
ahead! get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows monday and tuesday
morning will only be in the low 50s!

wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain
and storms. an upper level trough deepens over the great lakes and a
surface cold front is expected to move through. there are have
30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms wednesday, with
the highest chances along and north of the us 30 corridor. this
setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the
vorticity maximum is located further north across michigan so
our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. instability
appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. we
will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather
and flooding risks are low. high pressure returns late in the
week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 623 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

pressure gradient between low pressure swirling over ontario
and high pressure over the ozarks eases this evening allowing
for light wind during the overnight hours. wind gusts return
monday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 10 pm cdt this evening for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
409
fxus63 kdtx 232356
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
756 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers
into tonight.

- dry weather monday into tuesday with a warming trend. the next
chance of showers and storms is possible late wednesday and thursday.

&&

.aviation...

scattered showers should conclude by 00z at taf sites on the
backside of the trough. cold northwest flow is expected to support
scattered low/mid clouds through tonight, but should remain
predominately vfr ceilings. winds will continue out of the northwest
this evening with gusts decreasing back towards 10 knots or below.
subtle shift towards the westerly direction late tonight will turn
back towards the nw for tomorrow afternoon as gusts pick back up to
around 25 knots. ceilings hold to around 4-5kft during the morning
and afternoon peak heating period.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms expected tonight or tomorrow.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 345 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

discussion...

stacked low pressure system spinning just to our east over southern
ontario will lift northeast into quebec overnight. we`re dealing
with cold advection on the backside of the low today with a strong
mid level wave passing over this afternoon before the low finally
departs. atmosphere utilizing the low level moisture one last time
this afternoon with a round of scattered showers before ridging
pushes in and dries out the mid levels ending precip chances later
this evening. spc mesoanalysis shows around 250 j/kg of cape mainly
in the thumb with a band of low level convergence stretching from
mbs to phn. this has been enough to generate some showers in the
area. weak mid level lapse rates and little instability should help
minimize much of any lightning. cool night in store as dewpoints
have already fallen to around 50 and even the mid 40s across
northern mi. once the diurnal clouds mix out we should clear out for
the most part. questionable area will be the eastern thumb where the
cloud shield from the upper low continues to reach back toward the
area. clouds would help hold those temps up a few degrees if the
clouds never release.

surface high builds in tonight for monday and tuesday while upper
level heights also inch upwards. we`ll keep the northwesterly flow
monday helping to hold highs temps on the cool side again in the mid
70s, but the ridge axis passes on tuesday allowing for some warmer
return flow to get us back up toward 80.

next trough affect the region mid week with a warm front pushing
north of the area tuesday evening tied to a low passing through the
northern great lakes. upper level waves start ejecting out of the
trough over the region wednesday leading to increasing chances of
rainfall before the main trough axis and cold front sweep through
early thursday.

marine...

post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist through tomorrow as
cooler air is ushered into the great lakes. wind gusts ranging
between 20 to 30 knots are expected during this window, along with
some isolated gust potential to 35 knots through this evening,
focused mainly across north-central and central lake huron. given
the lower confidence for any longer duration gale potential, will
continue to preclude any issuance of gale products. increasing
coverage of rain showers will be likely tonight into tomorrow
morning across lake huron, including a very low chance for
waterspouts along any convergence axis. high pressure will then
begin building into the great lakes monday evening, centering over
the region by tuesday. this will diminish wind speeds tomorrow
night, leading to light winds by tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through monday afternoon for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt monday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...drk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.