Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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120
fxus61 kcle 232332
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
732 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

.what has changed...
minor adjustments based on latest guidance, though overall we`re
still looking at late friday into early saturday followed by
later monday into tuesday for the main upcoming rain chances.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and some thunderstorms are likely later friday into
early saturday. the overall concern for severe weather and heavy
rain is low, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated
damaging winds in place across northwest oh for late friday.

2) after quiet weather to end the weekend, the next low pressure
brings shower and storm potential late monday into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a front remains draped across the area this afternoon, extending from
near the western lakeshore to just south of cleveland to just north
of youngstown. it has mainly been another dry, warm, mostly sunny day
though we are beginning to see a few showers/storms developing in the
vicinity of the central highlands. this mainly isolated activity
remains possible through the early evening along and southwest of the
front. not expecting any severe weather this evening, though enough
for a slight chance mention in the forecast for parts of the area.
after any pop-up showers/storms dissipate, it will turn into a dry
night tonight with lows mainly settling into the mid to upper 50s,
except upper 40s/lower 50s across far northeast oh and northwest pa.
some limited fog isn`t ruled out in typical valley locations very
late tonight into early friday, though should be quite sparse.

a gradually weakening shortwave, associated surface low, and trailing
cold front will move east across the southern great lakes/upper ohio
valley late friday into early saturday, bringing more widespread
shower and storm activity. shortwave ridging will be overhead to
start on friday before getting flattened and exiting east into
friday night. the front (likely enhanced by a lake breeze during the
afternoon) will lift north of most of the area, but will likely get
hung up across the northeast corner of oh and erie county pa. so
while most of the area will enjoy a mainly dry, warm friday in the
warm sector, erie will likely stay in the 60s. a few showers/storms
may also develop near that front across the northeast corner of the
area friday afternoon. elsewhere, most of the day friday should
remain rain-free with highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80.

greater forcing pushes in from the west into friday night as the
shortwave and cold front move in from the west and flattens any
remaining ridging aloft. this will bring more organized shower and
storm potential in from the west. there`s good agreement in an
organized band of showers/storms moving into northwest oh late friday
afternoon or evening from the west. activity will likely gradually
weaken as it moves across the area friday night, due to the shortwave
itself slowly weakening and nocturnal stabilization. still, everyone
should see some rain friday night with the greatest confidence in
thunder and higher overall qpf amounts across northwest oh. drier
weather gradually spreads in from west to east late friday night into
saturday. the shortwave and surface low will slow while departing,
so far northeast oh and northwest pa may end up rather cloudy/
somewhat damp for most of saturday. locations farther west should
see drier and gradually sunnier weather work in sooner on saturday.
lows friday night will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. it will
trend cooler behind the cold front for saturday, with highs expected
to range from the 50s near the lake across northeast oh and northwest
pa to the mid-upper 60s well inland.

the potential for severe weather and heavy rain with this system
remain limited. average qpf amounts of generally 0.30-0.60" are in
the forecast, with locally an inch not ruled out if localized
training or repeating showers/storms occur. in terms of severe
potential, low-level inverted-v soundings friday afternoon/early
evening and modest flow aloft could support gusty outflow winds with
any more-organized storms pushing into northwest oh. however, the
overall thermodynamics and kinematics are very marginal (at best) for
severe weather, so am not expecting an organized threat. the spc
marginal risk (level 1/5) for damaging winds across western portions
of our area should sufficiently cover the severe weather threat.

key message 2...
some clouds and lingering light showers may persist across northwest
pa into saturday night...otherwise, dry weather is expected saturday
night through monday morning as high pressure slides across the great
lakes/northeast and southeastern canada. it will remain cooler for
the second half of the weekend, with lows in the 40s and highs in the
60s. fairly potent (990-995mb) low pressure will lift into the upper
great lakes monday night into tuesday. a warm front will lift through
late monday or monday night ahead of this low, followed quickly by
an occluding cold front in the vicinity of tuesday morning. much of
monday looks dry, before shower and storm chances move in from the
west late monday or monday night. rain chances likely linger into
tuesday before exiting east. as implied by the strength of the low
this system will have some better dynamics with it, to the point
where it likely will produce organized severe weather to our west on
monday. impression at this time is that the timing of the front
earlier on tuesday should limit severe weather and heavy rain
potential locally, though will still need to keep an eye on that
overall evolution as we get closer.

it is rather uncertain how dry we end up for wednesday and thursday,
as the front may stall across the upper ohio valley behind the early
week system. if the front does stall closer to the local area, some
rain may return later in the week as indicated by some 30% mentions
in the forecast for wednesday and thursday. as that 30% also
implies, there`s a very realistic scenario in which the front sweeps
far enough south to simply dry out. either way, we should trend a
bit cooler for wednesday and thursday with overall low impact wx.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
thunderstorms have winded down across the region and quieter
weather is expected overnight as high clouds remain with vfr
conditions. vfr is expected through much of the taf period. by
later tomorrow a cold front will enter from the west bringing
showers and thunderstorms, though only have this in for ktol and
kcle at this time. there may be some scattered
showers/thunderstorms across eastern oh tomorrow, but confidence
is low in the coverage so opted to leave it out.

winds will be light and variable overnight at around 5 knots.
tomorrow morning, winds will be primarily out of the southwest
at 5-10 knots. keri and kcle will be impacted by a lake breeze
tomorrow afternoon as well shifting winds to the north-
northeast.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
possible friday afternoon through saturday morning and on
monday.

&&

.marine...
winds and waves are still expected to stay below marine headline
criteria through early next week due to relatively weak pressure
gradients. light e to se winds tonight will quickly turn ene at
10-20 knots friday as a warm front stalls over the lake. these
will be the strongest winds of the next 5 days. the winds will
gradually turn n at 5-10 knots friday night as a weak low
crosses the lake, with n to ne winds averaging 5-15 knots
persisting saturday and sunday as high pressure builds into the
great lakes. e to se winds will gradually increase monday as a
warm front approaches the lake, turning w to sw by tuesday as a
cold front crosses the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...23
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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835
fxus63 kiwx 232217
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
617 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered and thunderstorms are expected late overnight
and into friday. marginally severe storms are possible friday.

- unseasonably mild today and friday with highs in the 70s to
around 80 degrees.

- dry this weekend. the remaining flooded fields will have a
relatively brief chance to dry out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 241 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

the stage will be getting set for an active weather day friday as
strong impulses approach an environment that will be becoming
increasing more unstable with modest deep-layer shear. in
addition to the instability, precipitable water values will be
topping out between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. a narrow atmospheric
river will translate over the area friday afternoon, adding to
the potential for locally heavy rainfall in addition to the
damaging wind threat.

the potential for heavy rain will continue early next week as
a strong impulse reaches the area. wpc indicated rainfall amounts
around 1.00 inch across the entire forecast area monday into
monday night. these rainfall amounts will add to the potential
for renewed river flooding. at the present time, 6 of the area
rivers were in "action" stage and 3 of the area rivers were in
"flood" stage.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 617 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

vfr conditions and southerly winds around 10 knots anticipated
pre-frontal into tonight. a convective outflow does attempt to
survive into northern in after daybreak tomorrow morning with a
non-zero chance for a few lingering showers. better chances for
scattered showers and storms will come in the afternoon if
enough heating is achieved along a cold front. restrictions into
ifr-mvfr will be possible during this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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434
fxus63 kdtx 232337
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
737 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry the rest of today, although an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out before 9 pm.

- above normal temperatures continue today and friday with highs in
the 70s.

- a frontal boundary tracks across lower michigan friday evening
leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms; isolated gusty
winds of 50+ mph and hail near 1 inch possible.

- becoming drier over the weekend with highs falling into the 50s
and 60s.

- showers and thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday with a
return to above normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation...

a few pop-up thundershowers linger into the early evening though
coverage is low enough not to warrant inclusion at any terminals.
otherwise, vfr and dry conditions hold through the night in advance
of an approaching low/cold front. thicker mid cloud arrives friday
morning, with a low probability for some widely scattered showers.
main window for convection arrives in the afternoon-evening as the
cold front pushes into lower mi.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms early this evening. moderate friday
afternoon-evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 414 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

discussion...

the longwave ridge axis currently bisecting lower michigan will
begin to evolve from its omega block state tonight. a speed max
within the base of an upper low parked upstream will interface with
a southern stream jet streak over the four corners region, causing
the ridge to compress laterally. meanwhile, lower column dynamics
displaced east of the closed wave aloft support the advection of
higher thetae air into the region, but system-relative anticyclonic
isentropic descent creates unfavorable conditions for
destabilization. forecast soundings this evening do indicate
potential for meager sbcape amidst tenuous cap near 7 kft, but poor
mid-level lapse rates and aforementioned drying processes preclude
any upward revisions to pops, currently capped at 10 percent. should
an updraft break through the cap, it would most likely occur from 22-
01z, as a short-lived single-cell thunderstorm. mild temperatures
are forecast overnight, in the 50s (or about 10f above climo) which
are the result of increasing nocturnal cloud fraction and warm
advection.

broadening of the adjacent upper lows causes vorticity to gradually
extend into southern lower with time on friday. the system`s surface
low(s) track northeast across the state with pre-frontal troughing
touching off some showers friday morning. some residual weak
elevated instability with mucapes up to 100 j/kg could increase the
productivity of a few showers, therefore, increased pops from dry to
areas of chance from 12-14z. a midday lull in precipitation is
expected prior to the arrival of the cold front during the afternoon
and evening hours.

the front will likely still be over lake michigan by 18z friday,
based on the location of progged surface troughing/wind shift, but
warm sector instability will be building as moisture transport
maximizes. as expected, hi-res model space varies greatly in
coverage and intensity with the presence of preexisting convection,
new ci, and coverage as stronger dynamic support lags. the front
then progresses through southeast michigan by 00z friday evening
offering higher confidence in broader coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. areas west of us-23 are more likely to experience
strong to marginally severe storms as instability maximizes, and
better shear values ensue. gusty winds of 50+ mph and hail near 1
inch are possible. although storms may become better organized,
linearly, as convection moves eastward late friday evening,
intensity should be declining. winds shift from ssw to wnw behind
the front friday night with a muted thermodynamic response as
occlusion processes proceed.

broad range of high temperatures saturday with flow turning
northeasterly making for cooler conditions inland from lake huron,
while influence will be less prominent toward the southeast. 850 mb
temperatures closer to 10c reside near an inversion layer below 800
mb. no major precipitation concerns given ample mid-level dry air
and pwats dropping to around 0.40 inches. a few showers are possible
depending on the emergence/positioning of a deformation axis over
lakes superior and huron. afterwards, the western canada cyclonic
wave retrogrades while the other to east releases into the northern
atlantic leaving the great lakes within a weaker flow-field with
shortwave ridging overhead. this persists through sunday with the
next chance for showers/storms late monday into tuesday with the
arrival of a sharpening shortwave trough within an amplifying
southern stream wave. deterministics indicate surface central
pressure dropping to 990 mb.

marine...

the central great lakes will continue to hold under high pressure
this afternoon maintaining benign marine conditions. a warm front
will continue to move over southern portions of the great lakes this
evening. a low pressure system will develop over the upper midwest
and pushes in to the great lakes friday night into saturday. this
will bring chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms during
this time. ahead of the low on friday, southeasterly winds
strengthen with gusts around 30 kts possible over the northern
waters of lake huron as winds funnel towards the straits. another
high pressure then builds in later this weekend.

hydrology...

a frontal boundary tracks across the great lakes friday afternoon
through the overnight hours. basin average rainfall amounts are
expected to be between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, although localized
amounts over one inch remain possible, especially for areas
experiencing repeated rounds of showers/thunderstorms. ponding of
water on roadways and rises on area rivers will be the main impacts,
although localized minor flooding in urban and low lying areas
cannot ruled out.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...kgk
marine.......ss
hydrology....kgk/mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.