Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
213
fxus61 kcle 172312
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
712 pm edt tue mar 17 2026

.what has changed...
a combination of lake effect snow and scattered instability snow
showers continue across most of the forecast area this afternoon.
instability snow showers will weaken this evening as the sun sets,
with lake effect snow gradually shifting northeast up the lakeshore
and weakening tonight.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect snow continues into tonight, but will gradually
wind down by wednesday across the primary snowbelt region.
instability snow showers ongoing outside of the snowbelt this
afternoon will also diminish quickly this evening.

2) low-impact weather with light precipitation chances and milder
overall temperatures starting wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1...

regarding the lake effect, activity has become much less organized
and more cellular this afternoon, though there are still two somewhat
more coherent bands. one band stretches from northern cuyahoga county
into southern lake/geauga/southern ashtabula/northern trumbull, with
the other coming into northeastern ashtabula county and extending
east across erie county pa. conditions will generally become less
conducive (i.e. increasing dry air, decreasing instability and
lowering inversion heights) for lake effect snow through tonight as
low-level ridging builds in. however, there may be some slight
increase in organization this evening as convergence increases along
the eastern lakeshore and accumulating snow may not stop in erie
county pa until early wednesday morning. the overall message is we
are past the peak of the lake effect event but there will be some
additional accumulation...perhaps locally an inch or two in far
northeast oh this evening, and perhaps locally 1 to 3" in northwest
pa through the night tonight. all ohio winter headlines expire at 5
pm this evening, with the expectation that additional accumulations
and impacts will be minor. pa headlines remain in effect until 5 am
wednesday, with some thought that crawford may be dropped earlier.

scattered instability snow showers farther inland across northern
ohio are being enhanced by one last subtle trough passage this
afternoon, and should quickly subside this evening once the trough
clears and as the sun goes down. until this snow showers subside,
localized/brief visibility reductions to as low as 1/4 of a mile and
perhaps a quick coating of snow can pose a travel hazard.

lows tonight will mainly settle into the 10s to near 20.

key message #2...

ridging will gradually build over the western and central u.s. over
the next several days as troughing persists over new england. our
area will reside near the gradient between building warmth to our
west and southwest and lingering chill to our east/northeast. this
will lead to a milder trend overall, followed by what appears to be a
larger chunk of colder air arriving sunday or monday. there will be a
few mainly minor precipitation chances through early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
the main concern for aviation will be in the very near term with
the scattered lake effect snow showers this evening. these snow
showers will gradually decrease between 00z and 04z this
evening. conditions will be variable between vfr to localized
and brief ifr/lifr with heavier burst of snow. after the snow
showers dissipate late this evening, mainly vfr conditions are
expected for the remainder of the taf period. winds will start
out from the west 5 to 12 knots becoming southerly later in the
taf period 10 to 15 knots. gusts will return by midday wednesday
through the end of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr returns wednesday afternoon into thursday
with the next warm front.

&&

.marine...
marine conditions are slowly improving across lake erie this evening
as winds diminish to less than 15 knots overnight. the end times for
the remaining headlines remain valid. winds will then shift to the
south on wednesday, increasing to around 15 knots and persisting
into thursday. generally light and variable flow of 10 knots or less
will arrive on friday into saturday, followed by another round of
south to southwest flow of around 15 knots on sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory until 5 am edt wednesday for paz001-
003.
winter storm warning until 5 am edt wednesday for paz002.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
958
fxus63 kiwx 172310
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
710 pm edt tue mar 17 2026

.key messages...

- light snow develops before daybreak wednesday. a weak system
could bring up to a half inch of snow accumulation during
wednesday morning, especially west of i-69.

- a return of mild conditions for the weekend with a low
probability (less than 20 percent) of some rain accompanying a
warm front friday.

- highs in the 50s and 60s likely late in the week into the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 pm edt tue mar 17 2026

an upper level sheared vorticity max has shifted east of lake
michigan this afternoon which is promoting some deeper synoptic
scale downward vertical motion. scattered lake effect snow showers
persist mainly across south central lower michigan, northeast
indiana, and far northwest ohio and are being aided by a -35 to -40
deg c 500 mb cold core trough. some brief vsby reductions are
possible through the remainder of the afternoon under one of these
convective snow showers but overall trend should be a diminishing
one after 21 or 22z.

looking upstream, another upper level speed max across the northern
plains will dive southeast through the downstream portion of the
western conus longwave ridge tonight while a zone of moderate to
strong warm advection continues to shift east from the upper ms
valley and the corn belt. top-down saturation will take some time in
this synoptic pattern as some very dry low level air is currently
advecting into the local area this afternoon. by late tonight into
early wednesday, a westerly flow regime with this short wave should
provide some increase in pacific moisture and a brief period of
better low/mid level rh. some question still remains about the
eastward extent of measurable snowfall late tonight into early
wednesday due to these brief favorable moisture profiles and overall
weak nature to the short wave forcing/upper jet. isentropic progs
also suggest that isentropic forcing does wane somewhat as it moves
across western portions of the forecast area in the 06-12z
timeframe. the better pacific moisture also lags this stronger
isentropic ascent and really does not arrive locally until midday
wednesday. given these factors, believe that most areas will see one
half inch or less of snow accumulation with this system, with
highest pops and best chance of these light accumulations across
western portions of the area. precip could even end as a brief
period of drizzle with dgz drying out fairly quickly late
morning to midday.

as previous discussion mentioned, we will be prone to several
weak clippers given upstream longwave ridge position, with the
next chance by early thursday morning. difficult at this time to
narrow down any more focused/narrow bands of fgen forcing in
this pattern, but thermal profiles do look more supportive of
light rain early thursday. wet bulb processes could yield just a
very brief period of some snow at precip onset but confidence
in this is very low.

looking ahead for late thursday into the weekend, guidance indicates
increasing dampening of the upstream longwave ridging via a series
of eastern pacific disturbances. this flow deamplification and
eastward progression of mean ridge axis should favor sharp trend
back to above normal temps for the weekend. some conflicting signals
in guidance regarding potential next clipper late friday that could
have some higher low level theta-e air to work with. have kept
pops below mentionable levels at this time, but it is possible
combination of a clipper-like system and stronger low level
theta-e ridging nosing into the area could provide some rain
chances late friday/early saturday.

some additional suppression of this longwave ridge is expected
late weekend with expected frontal passage some time sunday.
slow moving nature of this front could promote some anafront
characteristics with some post-frontal rain possible on sunday.
however, slight chance pops have been maintained for this period
with a good deal of uncertainty in frontal timing and quality
of pooled moisture lagging behind the front. a trend back to
more seasonable temps is then expected early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 704 pm edt tue mar 17 2026

dry conditions will prevail for this evening and early
overnight. winds will slowly relax this evening as they shift to
become southwest/southerly. a weak system moves in around 09z,
with light snow expected to fall at both kfwa and ksbn during
the morning hours. mvfr ceilings and visibilities will be
possible at times, especially between 10-15z. snow exits by
midday. skies remain overcast for the rest of the day
wednesday, although vfr ceilings will return by the afternoon.
winds will also begin to increase tomorrow afternoon out of the
south with gusts as high as 20-25 kts as a tightening pressure
gradient sets up over the great lakes as existin high pressure
slides east over the east coast.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
224
fxus63 kdtx 172315
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
715 pm edt tue mar 17 2026

.key messages...

- chance of light snow wednesday. little to no accumulation
expected.

- warming conditions during the late week period, with additional
chances for light precipitation.

&&

.aviation...

lake assisted snow showers that dotted the area today are quickly
diminishing. furthermore, the cloud shield will also start to show
signs of decay over the next several hours - as convective forcing
ends. though, it will take the balance of the evening to see this
process carry out. meanwhile, mid/high level clouds are already on
the western horizon, as the next system darts southeast across the
western lakes region during the forecast period. the main influence
from this system will be lowering and thickening clouds wednesday
morning into the afternoon. probably a few flurries floating about,
but the system will be weakening dramatically on its arrival, so not
much in the way of sustainable precipitation. otherwise, the flow
will flip around to the south and gather a some fresh gusts during
the morning and afternoon hours - reaching the 20-25 kt window.

for dtw... the cloud deck will hover around 5-kft this evening while
it thins in coverage. this same layer will gather clouds again
through the post-dawn hours on wednesday, with the greatest
opportunity to lower during the midday hours.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet early this evening and
wednesday after 12z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 311 pm edt tue mar 17 2026

discussion...

arctic airmass entrenched locally this afternoon, solidified by a
dip in 850 mb temperature around -18c within the backside of high
amplitude upper troughing. secondary period of cold air advection
into daytime heating will maintain steep lapse rates at a deep
convective depth through the early evening hours. supportive
environment within the background of ongoing weak lake moisture flux
to maintain a scattered coverage of snow shower activity through
sunset. minor accumulation potential within any briefly heavier
pockets, but of limited overall duration at any one location.
reduction in moisture depth from west to east early tonight as low
level flow backs to southwesterly will then favor a period of dry
conditions 03z-10z. magnitude of cold held within the resident
airmass will again support minimum wind chill of single digits to
lower teens wednesday morning.

energetic northern pacific upper jet stream will direct a series of
lower amplitude mid level waves across the northern conus during the
latter half of the week. lead wave set to shear across the local
area wednesday. narrow axis of meaningful moist isentropic ascent
will emerge out ahead of the wave across the upper midwest tonight.
both the moisture quality and associated forcing remain weak, but
sufficient to maintain a moderate potential for light snow
production with a focus during the morning period, greatest with
southward extent. any accumulation remains minor. modest warm air
advection will bring temperatures back into the middle and upper
30s wed afternoon.

slightly more dynamic mid level impulse will traverse the region
thursday. higher quality moisture advection under stronger low level
southwest flow affords a greater response along the inbound warm
frontal boundary. pace of warming diurnally relative to the
precipitation onset thursday morning will govern both scale and
duration of snow or rain/snow mix as precipitation type, before
adequate warming ensures all rain the rest of the day. no
accumulation currently expected. outgoing forecast will continue to
highlight a peak in temperature of mid 40s to around 50 as the
thermal ridge takes brief residence.

lower amplitude mid level northwest flow will deliver one final wave
friday. entry level precipitation mention at this stage to account
for associated frontal forcing and modest moisture quality. this
system may carry greater potential north of the area and further
revision likely. otherwise, generally moderating thermal profile
with continued pacific influence lifts temperatures back above
average to end the work week. warmest conditions likely heading into
the first half of the weekend as upper heights continue to slowly
build atop meaningful southwest flow.

marine...

westerly winds dropping to 15 knots or less tonight as surface
ridging extending from high pressure over the ohio valley arrives.

moderate southerly winds return on wednesday as return flow around
the high kicks in, and low pressure tracks through northern ontario
wednesday night. gusts at least to 25 knots, with potential to
briefly reach 30 knots over the open waters in the afternoon hours.

light winds return thursday-friday as a weak frontal boundary washes
out on thursday. a warm front will then arrive on friday, bringing a
better chance of precipitation.

warm airmass (7-10 c at 850 mb) in place on saturday favors winds
aob 20 knots with limited mixing/stable low levels. next cold front
on track to move through saturday evening, with good low level cold
advection and gusty northerly winds for saturday night. none-the-
less, bulk of euro ensemble members suggests winds only topping out
around 25 knots. even so, unstable low level profiles and longer
fetch will result in large waves building over the southern lake
huron basin, with waves aoa 4 feet impacting the nearshore waters.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...mr
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.