Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
954
fxus61 kcle 181729
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
129 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

.what has changed...
the enhanced risk for today has been expanded westward to
include most of the local area. damaging wind gusts remain the
main hazard with storms today. otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening. scattered storms will could be strong to severe with
damaging winds being the primary hazard.

2) additional showers and thunderstorms are likely late monday and
tuesday. storms may be strong to severe, primarily on tuesday.

3) today will be the last day with hot temperatures before
temperatures cool down sunday.

&&

.discussion...
update...
tweaked pops this morning to account for the widely scattered
convection in the warm sector. this appears to be tied to a weak
wind shift or outflow boundary, and expect it to push largely s
and e of the area by 15 to 16z. no severe weather and minimal
lightning is anticipated with this activity. mainly dry
conditions will otherwise dominate late this morning through mid
afternoon until convection starts to develop ahead of the cold
front, with the main show likely to be between 4 and 9 pm. see
key message 1 below for details.


key message 1...
a warm front will lift east of the area this morning, pushing
any lingering smoke to the east. from there, the cwa will be in
the warm sector as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
isolated showers/thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through this
morning, although confidence in the coverage/placement is low.
showers and thunderstorms will develop with a pre-frontal trough
this afternoon before pushing southeast across the cwa into the
evening.

there`s still potential for severe weather this afternoon into this
evening (roughly 2-3 pm through about 9 pm) given the unstable and
moist air mass in place across the region. mlcape values of 2500-
3000+ j/kg will be in place during peak diurnal heating and some mid-
level dry air (and dcape values of around 800-1000 j/kg) will
contribute to a damaging wind gust threat, which may be scattered to
widespread depending on how organized storms become. effective
bulk shear will increase to 30 to 40 knots as the cold front
advances into the region which will allow any initial cellular
convection to congeal into clusters/line segments. a few
tornadoes can`t be ruled out across portions of ne oh/nw pa,
where the wind field and low level shear (albeit marginal) will
be a bit more favorable. isolated instances of large hail can`t
be ruled out, primarily in storms with taller/rotating updrafts.
in summary, damaging wind gusts are definitely the most
likely/widespread hazard with tornadoes being a secondary
hazard. an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather is in
place across most of the area.

torrential rainfall rates are likely in storms given pwat values up
to 2 inches, however storm motion will be relatively fast which will
help mitigate the flash flood risk. there may be ponding/minor
flooding in poor drainage/urban areas and around the most responsive
creeks/streams, but overall the flash flood risk is low.

another round of showers and isolated storms may push off of lake
erie with the cold front later this evening, but the atmosphere
will be worked over so do not anticipate severe weather. dry
weather will return for sunday.

key message 2...
high pressure will produce dry weather through at least early
monday before shower and thunderstorm chances return as the next
system moves across the region late monday through tuesday.
there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty with the trajectory and
timing of a developing upper level low to the north of the area
during this time, which will impact storm placement/timing.
there will likely be sufficient forcing for organized showers
and thunderstorms and possibly severe thunderstorms at some
point on tuesday (likely during the day), although confidence in
instability is low this far out.

key message 3...
today will feature one last day of well above normal
temperatures before cooler temps arrive behind the cold front
sunday. highs will be in the 80s and lower 90s with the hottest
temps expected across nw oh and in urban areas. dew points will
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s and as a result heat index
values will be in the 90s. apparent temps may attempt to briefly
flirt with 100 degrees in a few spots along/west of i-71,
although confidence in heat advisory criteria being met is low
due to potential for showers/thunderstorms during peak diurnal
heating. sunday will feel much different with highs in the 70s
to around 80 degrees and sunday night`s lows falling into the
lower 60s and 50s. temps briefly warm to around normal
monday/tuesday, but daytime temps in the 70s will return for mid
to late week.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
warm front has swept to the northeast. only residual wildfire haze
was affecting ktol. otherwise, smoke and low ceilings have eroded
this morning. visible satellite displayed a cu field over nc/ne oh
and w pa with isolated sh over central ohio.

this afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of a cold front, potentially impacting all taf sites with a brief
window of lower vsbys and gusty to strong winds. highest confidence
in thunderstorm coverage and the potential for wind gusts to exceed
40 knots. have inserted gusts up to 35 to 40 knots in the window
from 19z to 01z in a tempo group for all taf sites this afternoon.
additional scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are
possible with the cold front later in the evening as it sweeps south
through the area.

gusty southwest winds of 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will
continue through 22z for most sites outside of convection. winds
will abruptly shift towards the north behind the cold front later
this evening and overnight, around 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible with haze/smoke on sunday and monday. non-
vfr becoming more likely in showers and thunderstorms monday night
through tuesday. some thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and evening
may contain strong wind gusts. residual non-vfr possible on
wednesday on rain showers across the eastern half of the area.


&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will arrive across lake erie today as
southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold front.
winds will shift towards the north behind the front later this
evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, before diminishing to
less than 10 knots by sunday afternoon. in this package, have
extended the small craft and beach hazards for the central
basin, and added a couple of zones west towards the islands,
mainly for the onshore flow later this evening and overnight.
another period for rough marine conditions will arrive on
tuesday as southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a
cold front. will likely need another round of marine headlines
tuesday through wednesday as winds shift towards the northwest
behind the cold front, around 20 knots.

strong thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across lake erie
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 10 pm edt this evening through
sunday morning for ohz009-010.
beach hazards statement through sunday morning for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 8 am edt
sunday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 8 am edt sunday for lez146>148.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas/15
aviation...fz
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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149
fxus63 kiwx 181657
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1257 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

.key messages...

- line of showers and thunderstorms will bring a risk for
damaging winds, isolated large hail and heavy rainfall into
early this evening.

- smoke from canadian wildfires will continue to bring periods
of poor air quality and reduced visibility through at least
monday.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms return monday
night into tuesday.

- high swim risk conditions are expected by this afternoon along
lake mi beaches in berrien county, mi and la porte county, in
by late afternoon and evening. moderate swim risk conditions
are expected before that. dangerous waves and currents are
expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1241 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

main focus of forecast remains on arrival of a cold front, set to
bring a round of strong to severe storms this afternoon and early
evening. in the wake of the front, northerly winds which will bring
cooler and less humid air as well a high swim risk for the se lake
michigan beaches.

initiation has occurred a few hours ahead of schedule with a broken
line of non-severe showers and storms from cass county, mi west to
chicago. spc recently issued a mesoscale discussion highlighting
the concerns and trends for the next several hours. to sum it
up, sufficient instability (over 2000 j/kg of sbcape and a
narrow band of around 1000 j/kg of dcape) is already in place to
allow continued organization over the next several hours as
they move sse with primarily a damaging wind threat with the
stronger storms. sufficient low and mid level lapse rates will
allow for hail production, but freezing levels aoa 15,000 ft may
lead to increased wet microburst potential with embedded
smaller hail. movement will be somewhat faster than yesterday,
but pwats above 1.75" will allow for some isolated hydro
concerns, especially in isolated areas that received 2 to 7
inches of rain over the past 24 hours. maintaining a period of
high likely pops along and ahead of the front.

the front will clear the area this evening with increasing nw winds
to bring a peak to dangerous swim conditions for all beaches along
se lake michigan. beach hazard statements remain in effect into
sunday. winds will shift more ne with time and slowly reduce the
risk sunday night.

cooler and slightly less humid conditions arrive behind the front as
the heat dome shifts west and we end up in a nw flow aloft which
persists through the remainder of the period. as is often the case
with these nw flow setups, one or more convective complexes are
likely to develop upstream and may move across portions of the
region. the main potential right now look to reside with a stronger
trough arriving later monday into tuesday which will likely bring
some showers and storms and maybe a risk of severe weather,
depending on the timing of the feature.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1256 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

a se moving cold front will bring a window of flight impacts
(right at the start of the period at ksbn and a few hours later
at kfwa) from both the threat of thunderstorms and possibly
locally gusty winds (especially at kfwa). any impacts should be
brief with winds becoming nw in the wake of the front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
beach hazards statement from 7 pm cdt this evening through
late tonight for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt sunday
night for miz078>081-177-277.
beach hazards statement from 5 pm edt this afternoon through
late tonight for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt sunday for lmz043.
small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
sunday for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher/norman

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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751
fxus63 kdtx 181752
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
152 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

.key messages...

- there is a marginal to slight risk of severe intensity
thunderstorms as coverage becomes numerous this afternoon.

- an air quality alert remains in effect north of i-69 today due to
wildfire smoke returning from the north this afternoon. a statewide
air quality alert has been issued for sunday.

- dry weather with cooler temperatures and lower humidity moves in by
sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a cold front is currently tracking south across the airspace and
generating strong to severe thunderstorms over the thumb region,
north and east of all terminals at the moment. as this front tracks
south it will encounter a warm and unstable airmass and potentially
trigger additional storms on its western flank. this broken line of
storms will track south across the airspace between now and 21z,
capable of producing damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail, and
frequent lightning. winds shift sharply to the northwest as the
front comes through by this evening, bringing smoke back into the
region. visibility reductions are possible, but confidence was too
low to include in the taf with this issuance.

d21/dtw convection...a broken line of thunderstorms has developed
over the saginaw valley and is tracking east-southeast into a warm
and unstable environment. additional thunderstorms have started to
develop ahead of the line as well. the most likely window for storms
at dtw is between 19z and 21z, although could linger through 00z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

* moderate in thunderstorms between 18z and 22z today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1006 am edt sat jul 18 2026

update...

mid-morning surface analysis shows a west-east oriented cold front
easing southeastward across mid mi. thunderstorms ahead of the front
have thus far been sub-severe but outflow may provide a trigger for
additional convection in the thumb as cin decreases the rest of the
morning. radar and satellite imagery also indicate fresh convective
growth beginning to percolate along the front in clare and osceola
counties. these will be the areas to watch for development over the
next couple hours.

the 12z dtx raob showed modest lapse rates through the column but
with high near-surface moisture that will provide fuel for deep
convection - observed mucape is already over 2000 j/kg. of note is a
very dry layer between 750mb and 350mb that should initially inhibit
stronger convection. rh will increase through this layer as moisture
pools ahead of the cold front, and dry air entrainment should be
less of a limiting factor for updraft strength past noon. dcape over
1000 j/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates continue to point to
a damaging wind threat as the primary hazard today. scattered
coverage of strong to severe storms remains favored south and east of
a line from sandusky to owosso mainly between 12p and 4p. will note
several 12z cams (with support from 00z and 06z runs) tend to target
areas east of i-75 with the highest coverage of thunderstorms today -
this appears to be tied to a corridor of higher moisture and
elevated instability tracking through this area. adjusted pops
slightly to account for this trend, otherwise the going forecast
remains in good shape.

prev discussion...
issued at 341 am edt sat jul 18 2026

discussion...

a low pressure system tracking across ontario, just north of lake
superior will bring a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms today
locally as the cold front drops through se mi. much of the guidance
has remained fairly consistent the last couple runs in terms of the
parameter space and storm potential, though the cams continue to
offer the typical variety of scenarios ranging from a dry afternoon
to multiple lines of storms. spc day 1 has remained unchanged as it
transitioned from the previous day 2 outlook. even the wind, hail
and tornado risks remain unchanged at 15-30%, 5%, and 2%
respectively. this is all reasonable taking account the instability
and dynamics present with the setup today. the front will be over
mid mi around sun up, fighting capping and lack of instability so
low risk of strong to severe early. southwesterly flow will advect
instability ahead of the front which the front will then compact as
it pushes se. strong low level lapse rates (but weaker in the mid
levels) along with daytime heating should help a few storms break
the cap out ahead of the front. cape builds as the front sinks
toward the metro detroit area peaking around 2500-3000 j/kg with
bulk shear increasing to around 35-40 knots later in the afternoon.
hodographs initially have some turning before low level jet perks up
later making longer, straighter hodographs. this would lead to any
isolated cells merging and becoming linear through most of the
event. damaging wind will be the main threat with hail and isolated
tornadoes possible as well. very moisture rich environment with
pwats around 2 inches and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
will lead to efficient rain makers, but a fast storm motion around
40-50 mph should help offset any flooding risk with progressive
storms. timing still looks to be mainly in the noon to 4pm window
with an hour or so buffer on either side.

high pressure builds back into the region tonight through sunday with
northerly winds tonight bringing cooler and drier air into the area.
there is a chance some smoke could get pulled back over the region,
but unsure as to how much would be surface based verse elevated so
will be something to watch. models show the plume of smoke setting
up more to our west by the end of the weekend.

the ridge breaks down locally and rebuilds over the western conus
through the first half of the week. this put the jet and
northwesterly flow over the region presenting a couple opportunities
for storms mid week. troughing over the region will help keep temps
down, with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.

marine...

still monitoring upstream convection associated with weak low
pressure systems approaching northern lower michigan and the lower
ohio valley. some of this activity should reach lake huron late this
evening and early tonight. latest hi-res models indicate a weakening
trend for these showers and thunderstorms, once they reach the
waterways. a warm front lifts into the central great lakes this
evening and overnight marking a south-southwesterly wind shift which
pushes the wildfire smoke plume back into canada, improving
visibilities. a secondary, and more robust, low pressure system
passes through the straits and across northern lake huron saturday
morning. this drags an attendant cold front through the region with
time, causing winds to veer northwesterly. pre-frontal
(southwesterly) gusts over saginaw bay are now expected to exceed 25
knots, therefore a small craft advisory is in effect. extensions are
possible for the rest of the lake huron nearshores with later
updates to account for stronger post-frontal gusts during the
afternoon hours. additionally, isolated brief gusts to gales cannot
be ruled out over central huron later on saturday, but confidence is
too low for a gale warning. high pressure then builds back into the
region late saturday and sunday supporting drier conditions and
prevailing winds below headline criteria for rest of the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
update.......tf
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.