Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
495
fxus61 kcle 281736
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1236 pm est fri nov 28 2025

.synopsis...
a trough will linger over the region through today before high
pressure very briefly builds east over the area late tonight into
early saturday. the next system will lift northeast across the
region late saturday through sunday with high pressure returning
on monday.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
445 am update...
snowfall rates have largely diminished in lorain and lake
counties, although light snow will likely continue through this
morning as bands of snow focus inland. opted to cancel the
winter weather advisory for lorain county since impacts will
remain minimal outside of lingering slick spots. lake county
has missed the majority of the snowfall during this event,
however continued light to periodically moderate snow may
produce slick conditions so opted to downgrade the lake effect
snow warning to a winter weather advisory. will continue to
monitor radar trends over the next several hours, but additional
downgrades/cancellations are possible, especially close to the
lakeshore.

previous discussion...

lake effect snow will continue through the near term period with
the highest accumulations occurring across the primary and
secondary snowbelt regions of ne oh and nw pa. multiple bands of
snow are currently present across ne oh/nw pa early this morning
with the heaviest snowfall rates occurring in eastern cuyahoga
county, geauga county, northern portage/trumbull counties, and
erie/crawford counties (pa). snowfall rates will be up to 1 inch
per hour at times, although there could be isolated higher
snowfall rates early this morning. lake effect snow should
diminish in intensity and continue to push inland later this
morning as lift decreases in the dgz and winds become a bit more
northwesterly. lake effect snow showers should start to diminish
after midnight as high pressure starts to build east into the
region, although lingering light snow showers will remain
possible across the primary snowbelt through late tonight.

additional snowfall totals of 5 to 7 inches are possible across
the higher terrain of eastern cuyahoga, geauga, and
erie/crawford counties with locally higher amounts possible
where bands of heavier snow persist. slightly lower snow amounts
of 3 to 5 inches are likely in the snowbelt region, including
northern summit/portage counties and trumbull county. snow
amounts will be much lower closer to the lakeshore from lake
county through erie county, pa. the majority of the snow
accumulation will occur with the higher snowfall rates this
morning. wind gusts have diminished considerably, however
west/northwest wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph will likely produce
blowing/drifting snow through this afternoon. winter headlines
are unchanged with this update, but will probably be able to
start trimming down warnings/advisories as the morning
progresses.

light snow showers downwind from lake michigan are possible
outside of the snowbelt today, but impactful accumulations are
not anticipated. today`s highs will be in the lower 30s areawide
with overnight lows willing into the lower 20s and upper teens.
apparent temps will be in the teens and lower 20s during the day
today.

&&

.short term /saturday through monday night/...
any lingering lake effect precip should largely diminish by
early saturday morning and there will be a very brief period of
widespread dry weather saturday morning/early saturday afternoon
before the next system begins to impact the local area by late
saturday afternoon. low pressure will lift northeast from the
mid-mississippi valley saturday night and track across the
central great lakes early sunday. isentropic ascent ahead of the
low will allow stratiform snow to spread across the local area
late saturday afternoon through saturday evening with warm air
advection causing snow to mix with and/or transition to rain
sunday morning into sunday afternoon. the highest snowfall
totals will likely occur to the west of the local area, although
the western fringe of the cwa will be on the fringe of the
higher snowfall totals and higher impacts. most of the area
will see 1 to 3 inches of wet synoptic snow accumulation
saturday afternoon through saturday night, but locations
northwest of a line from roughly findlay to port clinton may
see snowfall totals as high as 4 to 6 inches, depending on where
the gradient of the heavier snowfall rates sets up. confidence
in advisory amounts of snow is gradually increasing, although
confidence in warning amounts is still too low to consider the
issuance of a winter storm watch.

the low`s cold front will move east across the area at some
point sunday afternoon or evening with lake-enhanced snow
showers developing with the return of cold air advection sunday
night. lake-enhanced snow accumulations appear to be somewhat
marginal and snow should generally be short-lived as high
pressure builds in behind the low during the day monday. with
that being said, the approach of the next disturbance will
likely push additional snow changes into the area late monday
night.

temperatures will briefly warm into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees sunday with colder highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s
expected for monday. lows will be in the upper teens/lower 20s
sunday night and the lower 20s monday night.

&&

.long term /tuesday through friday/...
additional snow chances continue across the area on tuesday as
an upper trough moves east across the local area. dry weather is
favored for most of the area on wednesday as high pressure
builds east over the region, however the next disturbance could
deliver lake-enhanced snow showers to the snowbelt region late
wednesday into thursday. guidance suggests that temperatures
will largely remain below normal through the long term period.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
lake effect snow showers will still be an issue for the first
half of the taf period with cle/yng in fluctuating observations
in and out of the activity. eri still has -shsn possible as does
cak, but for the most part, the main areas of concern will
remain at cle and yng. amds possible with ongoing trends as
cellular lake snow shower enhancement is currently ongoing as of
1730z over lake erie, but also note that observations could jump
multiple flight categories.

winds also continue out of the west gusting 20-30kts. these
gradually ease overnight. ceilings and visibilities fluctuate
in and out of lake effect as well. away from the lake effect,
mvfr ceilings, what is left of them, will become vfr, as will
the lake effect terminals eventually as the snow shuts down
tonight.

outlook...a low pressure system will enter the great lakes
region this weekend, bringing light to moderate snowfall
areawide and non-vfr late saturday afternoon through sunday
morning, with lake effect snow lingering across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania through monday. another weather
system may bring another chance of snow and non-vfr on tuesday.

&&

.marine...
a gale warning remains in effect on the eastern half of lake erie
until 10 am this morning. when that expires, small craft advisories
will be needed through late tonight on the eastern half of the lake
which will match up with the remaining small craft advisories on the
western basin in effect through this evening. the low water advisory
on the western basin was able to expire at 4 am. water levels
are slightly above the critical mark early this morning but are
expected to gradually improve through the day.

marine conditions are forecast to be good on saturday before
increasing again saturday night into sunday as low pressure tracks
through the central great lakes. this system will pull a cold front
east across lake erie on sunday and a window of gale force winds is
possible, mainly on the central and eastern portions of the lake.
will let the current warnings end before considering a gale watch
for sunday but that may need to be considered.

high pressure returns sunday night into monday with improving
conditions. we will need to monitor the track of another low
pressure system tracking from the gulf coast up the east side of the
appalachians on tuesday which could yield in an increase in
northerly winds and possible small craft advisories for the middle
of next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est this evening for
ohz011-013-014-022-023.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz021.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 1 am est saturday for paz002-
003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez142>146.
small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lez147>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...15
near term...15
short term...15
long term...15
aviation...26
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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281
fxus63 kiwx 281104
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
604 am est fri nov 28 2025

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers continue this morning with localized
additional snow accumulations of an inch or two before
tapering late morning. slick road conditions likely to
persist this morning.

- snow overspreads the area saturday and continues saturday
night. the snow is expected to be heavy at times particularly
saturday afternoon into the evening hours. hazardous holiday
travel is expected due to the potential of moderate to heavy
snow, particularly north of us route 24.

- snow showers will continue into sunday, transitioning to lake effect
snow showers with some additional travel impacts possible.

- more snow is possible monday night into early tuesday, but
confidence in snow accumulations is low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 354 am est fri nov 28 2025

the primary forecast concern will be approaching winter storm for
saturday into saturday night. a winter storm watch will be
maintained for the same areas, with a sharp northwest to southeast
cut-off in snow amounts anticipated. however, confidence remains on
the low to medium side where this gradient will lay out.

multiple lake effect snow bands persist this morning with the
dominant band extending from eastern berrien/western cass mi
counties through northeast kosciusko/northern whitley counties
in northern indiana as 0830z. lake effect parameters are still
fairly impressive, with inversion heights around 8k feet and
lake induced equilibrium heights between 10-15k feet. toward
daybreak, near term forecast soundings suggest some drying out
of the dgz with some synoptic scale subsidence building in
behind departing larger scale mid/upper level trough. inversion
heights also will lower through mid morning. the above evolution
should result in lake effect snow showers becoming more
cellular in nature after daybreak with lessening potential of
significant additional accumulation after 14z. will continue
with the winter weather advisory for berrien/cass/st. joseph
counties in southern lower michigan through 12z, and will likely
extend the sps for surroundings counties to continue to mention
potential of slick road conditions this morning.

otherwise for today, much below normal temperatures expected as low
level thermal trough remains anchored across the ohio valley/eastern
great lakes. skies should be mostly sunny outside of the lingering
lake effect clouds.

...winter storm for saturday into sunday...

the upper level disturbance which will be responsible for
impactful winter weather saturday into sunday is currently
making its way across the pacific northwest with indications in
water vapor imagery this morning of an upper jet streak digging
through upstream portion of this trough. this feature will be
quite progressive as it eventually digs and amplifies across the
northern rockies tonight/early saturday. low level south-
southwest flow will increase sharply in response to this short
wave later tonight into saturday morning with the nose of this
low level jet impinging on east central il/nw indiana late
saturday morning. a strong retreating low level baroclinic zone
and some speed convergence with this low level jet should induce
some type of advective/frontogenetic snow wing across the
western great lakes into nw indiana saturday morning. strong
isentropic ascent will further strengthen during the afternoon,
with 295k isentropic progs indicating 30-45 knots of southerly
flow by 18z saturday along with mixing ratios on this surface an
impressive 3-4 g/kg. always a tricky forecast item in narrowing
down the exact placement of this initial low level
fgen/advective forced band, but some decent snow rates of 0.5-1"
per hour appear possible given strength of this forcing. above
large scale forcing mechanisms should allow snow to overspread
the area from west to east during the late morning/afternoon
hours.

the most impactful period with this system still appears to be
the late afternoon through evening time period saturday as
upper level vorticity advection with upstream vort and continued
strong warm/moist advection continues across the area. the
21z-03z time period saturday afternoon/evening could end up
being the period of greatest impact. model time/height sections
saturday evening indicate the strongest 700-500 mb lift
affecting the area, with best cross hair signature of co-located
upward vertical motion and elevated dgz across approximately
northwest third of the area. the nose of an elevated dry punch
and the stronger undirectional mid/upper flow fields by saturday
evening may also be enough to realize some csi type banding
saturday evening which is also the best timing in href signal
for snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour centered around
00z. confidence in this banding setup is somewhat on the low
side however, as supportive kinematic profiles for this type of
setup will be somewhat dependent on how the mid level, low
predictability diabatic pv anomaly evolves.

overall track of low level reflection of this system is often not
associated with classic winter storm setup locally, but the
impressive advective fields and deepening nature to compact upper
level system are likely to compensate somewhat. it does appear after
06z saturday night that near sfc wet bulbs might overwhelm profiles
to support rain/snow mix or snow/drizzle mix across far southeast
areas as mid level dry slot surges across the ohio river valley.
this precip type concern and the fact that snow production
efficiency will likely be optimized far northern in/southern lower
mi still looks to produce potential of a strong snowfall gradient
from northwest to southeast in terms of storm total. storm total
amounts in the 6-10" range still look quite possible across
approximately northwest half of the area with some possible
localized higher amounts if any of the above mesoscale factors
come into play. additional impactful snow is possible sunday
with a transition to at least a brief period of lake effect snow
showers. given this is still primarily a 3rd period concern,
and uncertainty with placement of gradient in snow
amounts/impacts, will hold with a winter storm watch this
morning for previously issued counties.

mid level height rises follow for sunday afternoon/evening with
diminishment in lake effect snow showers. something that may need to
be watched heading into the monday night/early tuesday timeframe is
the possibility of some elevated forcing with another highly
progressive eastern pacific wave. depending on track, this could
yield just enough of a mid level fgen response for some additional
snow accumulation.

for the long term, no real opportunity seems to exist for
significant moderation in temperatures as highly progressive pattern
and potential weaker clipper systems bring additional rounds of
reinforcing cold advection.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 600 am est fri nov 28 2025

lake effect snow showers continue this morning, but greater
impacts with the snow showers should remain north and east of
the terminals. through the early morning hours, synoptic scale
subsidence will increase which should dry out the dendritic
growth zone. this evolution should result more cellular mode for
lake effect after 13z. lowering inversion heights should result
in diminishing lake effect snow showers through midday.
otherwise, fairly quiet aviation weather this period with
primarily lingering vfr lake effect low clouds (although brief
mvfr cigs possible through mid morning). quiet weather is
expected this afternoon into tonight, but warm/moist
advection should result in snow overspreading northwest indiana
toward the end of this forecast period. greater chances at ksbn
should hold off until after 12z, so have limited this mention to
prob30 for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm watch from late tonight through sunday afternoon
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
oh...winter storm watch from late tonight through sunday afternoon
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
mi...winter storm watch from late tonight through sunday afternoon
for miz078>081-177-277.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for miz078-
079-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm est this evening for lmz043.
small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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991
fxus63 kdtx 281733
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1233 pm est fri nov 28 2025

.key messages...

- cold weather will persist through the weekend and into next week.
wind chills will be in the teens each morning and 20s during the day.

- widespread accumulating snow is forecast saturday afternoon into
sunday morning, with the peak of the event during saturday evening.
forecast totals are in the 4 to 7 inch range with the higher end of
the range most likely west of us-23.

- additional light snow is possible monday night.

&&

.aviation...

gusty west-northwest winds and diurnal cloud cover have increased
right on cue. ceilings through the afternoon will be high-based and
above 3kft. given the deeper mixing and pocket of cooler air aloft,
could see some flurries associated with afternoon diurnal cloud
cover as these ceilings are embedded within the dendritic growth
zone with a small pocket of instability to work with. later this
evening and through the overnight hours a surface ridge moves
overhead and brings lighter winds to the region. attention then
focuses on the arrival of winter weather for the latter half of
saturday. all terminals will see snow late saturday into sunday
morning. for now, have introduced mentions of light snow at dtw
around 21z on saturday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through 0300z this
evening.

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet by/around 2100z saturday.

* low for crosswind threshold exceedence today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 334 am est fri nov 28 2025

discussion...

cold cyclonic flow remains pervasive across the area today as broad
low pressure slowly treks across quebec toward the canadian
maritimes. continued wnw wind trajectories will favor advection of
lake cloud and occasional flurries through the first half of the
day. deep layer subsidence then gains a boost as the upper jet left
entrance region passes overhead, which should promote a clearing
trend later into the afternoon/evening. the thermal trough will be
positioned right over lower mi with 850mb temp at -13c, supportive
of highs right around freezing. with the persistent 20 to 30 mph
wind, wind chill will top out in the 20s.

a pacific wave tracking across the pnw this morning will be
responsible for our next bout of winter weather this weekend. this
wave will emerge over the rockies early on saturday, producing a sfc
low that tracks from the central plains northeast across the great
lakes saturday night into sunday. synoptically, this is a good set-
up for widespread accumulating snow as the wave drives an area of
pva directly across the area. coupled upper jet structure provides
broad upper divergence, while isentropic analysis indicates deep
layer moist system relative ascent from 925 to 550mb as the nose of
the theta-e ridge works in from the south. this ascent will begin to
ramp up saturday afternoon then peaks during the evening as fgen
contributes an uptick in forcing along the mid-level baroclinic
zone. precip production will then wind down sunday morning as the
ascent passes east and drier air begins to work in aloft.

temperatures saturday will be rising from around 20 at sunrise to
the lower 30s by the time the precip moves in. meanwhile the dry
boundary layer will still have dew points in the 20s, favoring all
snow at onset saturday afternoon. the dgz will be positioned mainly
between 10 and 15 kft agl, with the bulk of omega in model soundings
targeting just below this level. this all favors slrs near or
slightly below climo at around 11 or 12:1 through saturday evening.
this will be locally higher where any fgen flare-ups occur.
meanwhile the interquartile range of ensemble qpf is predominantly
between 0.30 and 0.50", but with a small handful of ensemble members
advertising 0.70"+. nbm statistical processes appear to be over
inflating the higher-end qpf probabilities based on a look at the
raw ensemble output. the higher amounts seem anomalous given strong
agreement among guidance of 850-700mb specific humidity peaking
around 2 to 2.5 g/kg and lack of stronger dynamics with this system.
that being said, qpf has trended up slightly the past few model
cycles, so will need to see if this trend continues.

00z ensemble and deterministic guidance are in very good agreement
with the low taking a sw-ne track across lower mi but some timing
and strength differences do exist, which would affect northward
moisture transport and organization and persistence of the
deformation/fgen response saturday evening. adjustments to the
forecast are expected today and tonight. additionally, the low track
across se mi does present a possible shorter window for accumulating
snow for far southeastern areas where a changeover to melting
snow/rain is possible by early sunday morning. at this time there is
high confidence in widespread advisory-level snowfall across the
area, and <50% confidence for >7" totals that would warrant a winter
storm watch with this package. this morning`s forecast will
highlight storm totals of 4 to 7" across most of the area. higher
totals in excess of 8" cannot be ruled out, particularly west of us-
23, but this outcome carries low confidence given some of the
moisture concerns noted above. wind will not be a major concern with
this system as the gradient will remain relatively weak as the low
pressure center works in.

gustier conditions ensue daytime sunday as cold advection follows in
the wake of the departing system, with gusts topping out around 25
to 30 mph. lighter snow showers will likely continue across parts of
the area but additional accumulation past noon will be relatively
light. high pressure building into the southern great lakes brings
nearly calm conditions sunday night into early monday. this paired
with fresh snow cover favors a very cold night with lows dipping
into the teens. 850mb temp progs hover near the 10th climatological
percentile into the early week, favoring continued cold conditions
with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. medium range guidance
highlights the next trough working across the midwest monday night,
presenting another opportunity for lighter snowfall as low pressure
tracks well to the south and east. there is also fair agreement
among guidance for a lobe of arctic air to surge southward out of
central canada during the wednesday/thursday period, perpetuating
the ongoing cold and active pattern.

marine...

influence of low pressure begins to slowly, but steadily wane
through the morning as the northern edge of ohio valley high
pressure begins expanding into the great lakes. gales over the open
waters of lake huron taper off by mid-morning with nw flow falling
below 30kts by late afternoon/evening. region then holds under said
high into the first half of saturday supporting a brief period of
light wind. active pattern quickly returns the second half of
saturday as low pressure coming out of the midwest is set to track
directly over the central great lakes saturday night-sunday bringing
widespread snow. in advance, winds organize out of the south-
southeast late day saturday with peak gusts falling around 20-25kts.
low reaches the georgian bay sunday afternoon ushering in renewed nw
flow as another surge of arctic air is drawn over the great lakes.
overall window for potential nw gales remains fairly narrow, a 3-6hr
period, sunday evening/early night due to the weaker low (relative
to wednesday`s system) as well as a fast progression into
northeastern canada. local probabilistic guidance is still holding
with a 30-40% chance to see gusts reach 35kts across the
northern/central waters of lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est saturday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz422-442-
443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....ja
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.