Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
601
fxus61 kcle 290000
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 pm est sun dec 28 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure will deepen as it tracks east through the great
lakes tonight, extending a strong cold front across the area on
monday. a trough will linger behind the front into at least
mid- week. another low pressure system will move east through
the great lakes on wednesday, extending a cold front across the
area into thursday.

&&

.near term /through monday night/...
changes with this package include the issuance of winter weather
advisories across portions of northeast ohio and the upgrade to
lake effect snow warnings for inland northwest pennsylvania.
confidence is also increasing for snow squalls monday afternoon
and evening across the entire area.

the latest water vapor imagery reveals a rapidly-deepening
surface low across il this afternoon, with surface observations
showing a strong temperature gradient (30 to 40f in some spots)
in the vicinity of the cold front. upstream and behind the cold
front across the central plains, already seeing several snow
squall warnings and road impacts which is perhaps a preview of
what`s to come across our area by monday afternoon and evening.
for this evening, still monitoring a low-confidence severe wind
threat with showers and isolated thunder along and ahead of the
strong approaching cold front, though weak instability will
generally keep the overall severe threat isolated and limited.

colder air will filter behind the cold front, with rain quickly
transitioning to snow by mid-monday morning as temperatures drop
from the low 60s to the mid-20s. low- level lapse rates will
steepen with mixing heights expected to reach somewhere between
850 and 925 mb. this will result in surface wind gusts to reach
between 50 and 60 mph through monday, with the higher end of
gusts found in the high wind warning area.

a strong surface trough will swing southeast through michigan
and into the eastern great lakes by monday afternoon and evening,
resulting in a period of impactful lake enhanced snow across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania into monday night.
lake enhanced processes will fully transition to lake effect by
late monday night into tuesday as 850mb temperatures fall to
around -15 to -16c with favorable boundary layer shear profiles
in place. snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour are
expected at times across inland northwest pennsylvania where a
lake effect warning is in effect with total snow accumulations
up to 10 inches. whiteouts and difficult travel conditions are
possible across the warning area, especially monday evening when
winds will still be gusting between 45 and 50 mph. for the
advisory area across northeast ohio, snow accumulations will
generally range between 3 and 7 inches, though can`t rule out
isolated higher amounts, particularly in eastern inland
ashtabula and geauga counties. will continue to monitor forecast
trends to see if any warning upgrades are needed for those
areas. there is also a low to medium chance that current
advisories may need to be extended an additional tier of
counties to cover the combination of snowfall and blowing snow.

across the entire area, confidence is increasing for snow
squalls monday afternoon and evening, associated with the strong
surface trough. the latest guidance indicates an extremely
favorable environment for snow squalls which could cause brief
whiteouts and quickly coat roadways with snow. be sure to
monitor the latest forecasts and heed any warnings if traveling
across the region monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.short term /tuesday through wednesday night/...
a clipper system will sweep east through the great lakes on
wednesday. southwest winds will increase ahead of the clipper
tuesday night, with the heaviest lake effect snow favored to
reside northeast of the area into western ny. however, accumulating
snow is expected to return by late wednesday as this clipper
system extends a cold front across the area into new year`s
eve. the highest snow totals will be found across the snowbelt,
though much of the area should see at least an inch.

wind chills in the short term period will remain in the low
teens to single digits.

&&

.long term /thursday through sunday/...
a somewhat quieter, albeit cold, pattern is favored for the long
term period as several areas of high pressure build southeast
across the midwest and great lakes. upper-level troughing will
keep things relatively cold at the surface with temperatures at
or below freezing. the coldest temperatures will be found late
thursday night into friday morning with wind chills in the low
single digits to near-zero.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
conditions have popped up to vfr for most of the area with just
some mvfr limited to near lake erie, where rain continues to
persist. a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is about
halfway through indiana and those will continue east and track
across some of the terminals tonight. ts will favor areas
further northwest as the line will diminish as it moves east
overnight and have vcts for ktol, kfdy, and kcle. mvfr ceilings
are starting to spread into the area ahead of this line and
will progress east through all of the terminals. the rain should
clear to the east in the middle of the night and there should be
a break in the precipitation. there could be some ifr floating
across the region but confidence in a ceiling at any particular
time is low.

a reinforcing cold front will enter monday late morning/early
afternoon with a push of snow and stronger winds across the
region. this feature will have the best potential to bring the
40 to 50 kt wind gusts that have been advertised. however, this
front will also bring a band of snow across the region and start
the lake effect snow machine. expect a window of ifr in snow
during monday afternoon at all terminals. locations in ne oh/nw
pa will have more sustained ifr with lake effect snow showers
continuing into monday night.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings will continue into monday night and
tuesday. non-vfr conditions across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania in lake effect snow showers through at least
thursday.

&&

.marine...
a warm front associated with a strong low pressure system over the
midwest has moved north across much of lake erie this afternoon,
allowing for a sustained south-southeast flow of 15-20 knots to
become established. as the center of the low tracks northeast
through the central great lakes region tonight, a very strong cold
front will push east. ahead of the cold front, winds will quickly
ramp up to 25-35 knot gales before backing and increasing to 40-50
knot storms by monday morning. as a result, a gale warning is in
effect for all of lake erie, which will then be upgraded to a storm
warning for the central and eastern basins monday morning. these
strong winds will result in waves building to 7 to 10 feet along the
nearshore with waves 13 to 17 feet in the open waters. in the
eastern basin, which will lie at the end of a long fetch, highest
waves may reach in excess of 25 feet. in addition to strong winds
and high waves, the sustained southwesterly flow will result in
water levels falling below the critical mark for safe navigation
across the western basin. the current water level forecast bottoms
out at 4 feet below low water datum, however could see water levels
fall as low as 6 feet below low water datum. on the back end of this
low pressure, strong gradient will continue to influence the area on
monday evening into tuesday which will need additional marine
headlines, but the storm warning will likely be able to expire
monday evening.

hazardous marine conditions with winds of at least 20-25 knots will
persist into thursday as the trough associated with the departing
low continues to influence the area. winds through the period will
generally be from the west-northwest with wave heights generally 4-6
feet. the next period of relatively quiet marine conditions looks to
be next weekend as high pressure builds over the area, but
confidence is not high given how far out that is.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind warning from 1 am to 10 pm est monday for ohz003-
006>009-017>019.
high wind warning from 4 am monday to 1 am est tuesday for
ohz010>014-089.
winter weather advisory from 10 am monday to 1 pm est tuesday
for ohz011>014-021>023-089.
wind advisory from 4 am monday to 1 am est tuesday for
ohz020>023-030>033-038.
wind advisory from 1 am to 10 pm est monday for ohz027>029-036-
037-047.
pa...high wind warning from 4 am monday to 1 am est tuesday for
paz001-002.
wind advisory from 4 am monday to 1 am est tuesday for paz003.
winter weather advisory from 10 am monday to 4 pm est tuesday
for paz001.
lake effect snow warning from 10 am monday to 4 pm est tuesday
for paz002-003.
marine...gale warning from 1 am monday to 7 am est tuesday for
lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory from 1 am monday to 1 am est tuesday for
lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning from 1 am to 8 am est monday for lez145>147-
165>167.
storm warning from 8 am to 7 pm est monday for lez145>147-
165>167.
gale warning from 3 am to 10 am est monday for lez148-149-168-
169.
storm warning from 10 am to 9 pm est monday for lez148-149-168-
169.

&&

$$

synopsis...kahn
near term...kahn
short term...kahn
long term...kahn
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 290120
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
820 pm est sun dec 28 2025

.key messages...
- showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will affect
areas east of interstate 69 through midnight tonight. severe
weather is not expected at this time, but a few gusts to
around 40 mph are possible with these showers.

- westerly wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph develop tonight and
persist through monday. wind gusts will be stronger along the
lake michigan shoreline.

- lake effect snow late tonight through monday, combined with
strong wind gusts, will result in treacherous travel
conditions in northwest indiana and southwest michigan.

&&

.update...
issued at 820 pm est sun dec 28 2025

severe weather potential continues to wane this evening and the
tornado watch that was in effect for northwest/portions of north
central indiana has been cancelled. frontally forced showers
persist this evening east of interstate 69 corridor. these
showers are continuing to experience some weakening instability
fields this evening, although kinematics remain quite
impressive. the waning instability should limit additional
severe threat east of i-69, but will be monitoring remnants of
what appears to be a smaller scale mcv approaching se allen
county oh as of 0115z with radar indicating some broad weak
rotation with this feature. given strength of wind fields and
40+ knots of line-normal westerly shear, cannot discount a
mesovort developing or a mesovort developing aloft possibly
helping to mix down a stray stronger 40+ mph wind gust across
far ne indiana/nw ohio. otherwise, forecast remains on track
with strong synoptic westerly gusts in wake of this front, and
these strong gusts will continue to overspread the area
overnight.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 240 pm est sun dec 28 2025

a deepening low pressure system centered over far western illinois
tracks through the great lakes over the next 24 hours. heavy rain
gives way to a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening
along the cold front. this is followed by temperatures falling some
30 degrees in a matter of hours tonight resulting in a flash freeze,
wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph, and developing lake effect snow.

heavy rain and dense fog along the warm front is slowly lifting
north. a couple of storms earlier this afternoon across central
il did produce damaging wind gusts and small hail. locally,
isolated thunderstorms have struggled with a lack of instability
and poor lapse rates. 50 dbz cores were only reaching about
14,000 ft, perhaps good enough for pea size hail. for the rest
of the evening, we`ll continue to watch the upstream warm
sector across western and central il. clouds have thinned here
somewhat and mucape of about 500 j/kg is noted. this plume of
instability is forecast to lift northeast along with the low,
but this plume does get squeezed off through time as the cold
front undercuts the warm sector. confidence in severe weather
occuring remains low. bulk shear of 60 knots is certainly
impressive, as are dew points near 60, but meager instability
and lapse rates remain limitations. we`ll continue to monitor
upstream convective activity. should a line of storms develop
and survive into western indiana, all hazards would be possible.

the cold front, currently approaching st. louis, is already
producing 35-40 knot wind gusts. the low-level wind field is
forecast to strengthen further as the low deepens through time,
increasing confidence in the existing wind advisory. the cold front
moves through from about 7pm est to 1am est west to east,
respectively, and wind gusts will increase through the night.
gusts of 45 to 50 mph will be common. a high wind warning was
considered for berrien and la porte counties (wind gusts of 58
mph, sustained 40 mph), but available wind gust probabilities
truly favor wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, with decreasing
probabilities at 58 mph (40-60% probability for small section
of berrien county, compared to 80-90% probability for wind
advisory criteria). thus, the most representative headline
remains the wind advisory, with a nonzero chance for wind gusts
to 60 mph at the immediate lake shore. wind gusts begin to
diminish area- wide monday afternoon. temperatures falling about
30 degrees in 6 hours tonight raises the concern for a flash
freeze. confidence is medium at best, given it is unclear how
much evaporation may occur prior to cold air settling in.

lastly, a winter weather advisory was hoisted for southwest michigan
and northwest indiana counties typically impacted by northwest flow
lake effect. lake effect snow quickly ramps up after 1am and tapers
off after 7pm est monday. even with about 2" of snow on the low-end
of this advisory, paired with 45-50mph wind gusts, hazardous travel
conditions are expected. totals as great as 5" to 6" are anticipated
in southwest michigan. strong winds limit forecast confidence
somewhat as significant shredding of dendrites will occur. however,
wind gusts do decrease through time which may increase accumulation
rates later on in the event.

remaining cold for the week ahead with clippers possible on
wednesday and thursday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 526 pm est sun dec 28 2025

line of gusty showers and some embedded thunder track through
early this evening along a strong cold front. ifr to mvfr
conditions will generally prevail with gusts in excess of 40
knots possible in more robust showers/convection before 01z at
ksbn and 02z at kfwa. post-frontal cold advection and a deepening
low tracking into the great lakes then provides strong westerly
winds tonight into tomorrow with a trend toward mainly mvfr
cigs. ksbn will see lake enhanced snow settle in later tonight
into monday with accumulations, blowing snow and times of
lifr/ifr visbys.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ monday for inz005>009-
012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216.
winter weather advisory from 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday to
1 am est /midnight cst/ tuesday for inz005-103-104-204.
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est monday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory until 7 pm est monday for miz078>081-177-277.
winter weather advisory from 1 am monday to 1 am est tuesday
for miz078-079-177-277.
marine...storm warning until 4 pm est monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...brown
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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555
fxus63 kdtx 290005
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
705 pm est sun dec 28 2025

.key messages...

- rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. marginal
risk of severe storms along and south of i-94 producing damaging
winds.

- westerly winds 25-35 mph, occasionally gusting 45-60 mph tonight
through early monday evening. high wind warning in effect with
power outages expected.

- snow showers/snow squalls are also expected monday, producing 1 to
2 inches of accumulation. travel will be difficult with the strong
winds, poor visibility in squalls, and snow covered roads.

- seasonably cold conditions with wind chills in the single digits
and teens will occur monday through the end of the week.

&&

.aviation...

strong low pressure entering southern lake michigan this evening has
a warm front extending eastward across lower mi and a cold front
south into indiana. rain showers diminish off the afternoon peak and
lifr/vlifr restriction follows the warm front as it moves northward.
the cold front then brings a band and/or clusters of showers across
se mi mid to late evening with some lingering thunderstorm
potential. upstream radar and lightning detection suggest the area
mainly from ptk to dtw has the best chance for an isolated and quick-
hitting storm until the frontal passage toward midnight.

the low pressure center deepening across northern lower mi and
northern lake huron is on schedule to produce powerful wind across
the entire great lakes late tonight and monday. sw gusts quickly
ramp up into the 40 kt range while inbound colder air lifts ceiling
into the mvfr range. lake effect snow showers activate toward
sunrise and then continue during the morning with scattered to
numerous mvfr coverage. a burst of ifr intensity is expected along
and behind a reinforcing arctic cold front that sweeps past mbs
shortly after sunrise and then through dtw around noon. wind shifts
nw behind the arctic front and wind gusts continue in the mid to
upper 40 knot range. mvfr ceiling and visibility continue during the
afternoon until snow showers diminish into monday evening.

for dtw... a strong cold front is on schedule to pass through by
midnight. it brings very windy conditions with initial gusts around
35 knots quickly ramping up to 45+ knots during the late night. snow
showers increase coverage and intensity during monday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling below 5000 feet tonight and monday.

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

* high for crosswind threshold exceedence after midnight
through monday.

* high for precipitation type as rain tonight, then high for snow
through monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 230 pm est sun dec 28 2025

discussion...

strong pv anomaly tracking through the northern plains, helping to
direct record setting moisture/low level warmth for late december
standards into southeast michigan this evening (highs of the day
after 00z). 12z dtx sounding already indicated an 925 mb temp and
dew pt of 9 c. western ohio valley and eastern missouri had 925 mb
temps of 17-18 c, so seems reasonable for 14 c temps at 925 mb to
surge in early this evening south of m-59. with locations along and
south of the i-94 corridor getting into the warm sector, there is a
chance of wind gusts to 60 mph with any convection ahead/along the
cold front passing through during the evening hours. near surface
profiles still look slightly stable however, which may be enough to
prevent the strong wind gusts, in addition to the meager instability.

frontal passage around or just after midnight, as deepening surface
low tracks into lake huron tonight. strong high res model consensus
(rap/3k nam/arw/arw2/hrrr/euro) with the low deepening to around 975
mb by monday morning near georgian bay. with at least 55-60 knots of
flow at the 850 mb level, confidence is high in occasional wind
gusts of 45-55 mph throughout monday, with a surface trough passage
around mid day also likely providing a focus. steepening low level
lapse rates and inversion heights aoa 7 kft, along with much of the
cloud depth/minimal cape in the dgz will be conducive to snow
showers/squalls, and isolated wind gusts to 60 mph seem likely in the
convective rolls. with the soaked ground from today`s rainfall,
weakened tree limbs from the ice storm, and long duration of strong
wind gusts tonight through early tomorrow evening, have elected to go
with high wind warning for all of southeast michigan. expecting to
see a significant number of power outages. 6z euro ensemble meteograms
indicating close to the half members supporting 55-60 mph peak wind
gusts as well.

the strong winds and snow squalls will make for tough travel
conditions on monday, despite just an inch or two of snow
accumulation as 700 mb cold pool (-20 c)/trough axis tracks through.
any leftover standing water will also freeze for the monday morning
commute as temps fall into the upper 20s.

slow evolving upper level pattern the rest of the week, as massive
500 mb low (sub 500 dam) meanders/retrogrades west over eastern
canada/hudson bay. fast northwest flow with tight baroclinic zone in
place over the great lakes region will lead to a chance of light
snow with various upper level disturbances tracking through. a
gradual moderation of the airmass and height rises to end the work
week into the weekend, as temperatures likely approach the freezing
mark over the weekend.

marine...

a rapidly deepening low over southern lake michigan tracks northeast
and reaches northern lake huron by monday morning. the bulk of model
guidance produces a central pressure of 976 to 979mb, offering high
confidence for a high-end wind event overnight and through the day
monday. widespread rain continues through this evening with a few
thunderstorms - some of which may become severe, mainly near lake
erie. the system will be surrounded by a 50 to 60 kt wind field just
off the deck, with much of this magnitude brought downward by a
series of cold fronts. the first sweeps east across the southern
lakes late this evening with strong wsw wind ensuing through the
morning. widespread strong gales are expected with a few gusts to
storm force possible as well. arctic air then surges in from the
northwest monday morning to bring nw gales and storms across lake
huron. in coordination with neighboring offices including eccc,
opted to upgrade the gale warning for lake huron to a storm warning
for the event duration, with the peak of the event winding down late
monday evening. meanwhile, snow squalls increase in coverage and
freezing spray becomes heavy as the arctic air surges in. gales look
to taper off by noon on tuesday with a persistent northwest flow
pattern through the week bringing additional snow showers and
occasional freezing spray.

hydrology...

widespread rain with embedded heavier showers and a few
thunderstorms will impact southeast michigan into this evening.
total rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range, with the highest amounts
along and north of m-59. localized minor flooding of urban and low
lying areas will be possible, but 6 hour flash flood guidance is
above 2 inches across most areas, and even 2.5 to 3 inches over the
tri-cities region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...high wind warning from midnight tonight to 9 pm est monday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...storm warning from 4 am monday to 11 am est tuesday for lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning from 5 am monday to 11 am est tuesday
for lhz361>363.

storm warning from 1 am monday to 11 am est tuesday for lhz363-421-
422-441>443-462>464.

low water advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est monday for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning from 1 am monday to 7 am est tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 1 am monday to 7 am est tuesday for lez444.

low water advisory from 1 am monday to 1 am est tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......tf
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.