Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
702 am est sun jan 25 2026

.what has changed...
snow has moved into all areas a couple of hours faster this
morning but now looks to end faster tonight. the bulk of the
widespread snow will be over by midnight with just some
lingering light snow through the night. forecast snowfall
totals have increased to 10-15 inches across the region, with
the greatest amounts on a mt. vernon to meadville line.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread heavy snow will bring major travel impacts to the
region today before tapering off tonight. lake enhanced snow
showers will linger in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
monday, with additional light snow accumulations expected.

2) temperatures will drop below zero monday night and tuesday
morning with wind chill values of -10 to -20 bringing a
significant cold exposure risk.

3) prolonged cold with occasional light snow is expected
through next weekend, creating elevated risks for cold exposure
and damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the much talked about snowstorm is underway this morning.
regional radar and surface observations indicate that snow is
reaching the ground areawide. snow has been steadily increasing
here at the office over the past hour. the snow began a couple
of hours faster than previous forecasts since wet bulb effects
were able to moisten the low-levels, and this faster start is
part of the reason why snowfall amounts have been increased.

the snow so far has been driven by broad moisture advection and
isentropic ascent in the mid-levels, with infrared satellite and
water vapor loops currently showing a broad conveyor belt of
mid-level moisture streaming from the texas gulf coast
northeast through the tennessee and ohio valleys. as the
remnants of the southern stream mid/upper shortwave fully phase
with the northern stream mid/upper trough digging through the
central conus later this morning, a coupled mid/upper jet
structure will develop over the mississippi valley vicinity and
move toward the ohio valley. the very strong upper divergence
beneath this coupled jet will strengthen mid-level (700-500 mb)
frontogenetic forcing, and this will set up a band of much
heavier snowfall to the immediate nw of the track of the
deepening surface to 850 mb low. the latest nam, rap, and href
guidance remain consistent in tracking the surface low from east
tennessee this morning through northern and central west
virginia by late afternoon, with the 850 low following a path
just to the nw of that. this gives high confidence that the band
of heaviest snowfall beneath the aforementioned mid-level
frontogenesis will set up along a mt. vernon to meadville line
from about mid morning through evening. snowfall rates will
increase to about 1 inch per hour during this window, and this
combined with the faster start this morning will lead to storm
totals of 10-15 inches. even farther nw on the edge of this
enhanced frontogenesis band, the overall synoptic lift and
moisture advection combined with the dry snow ratios greater
than 20:1 will lead to a solid 8 to 13 inches in much of north
central and ne ohio and nw pa, with 7 to 10 inches in far nw
ohio, so increased the forecast areawide. one other thing to
point out is thunder snow potential. looked at a rap forecast
sounding near youngstown for this afternoon which will be right
within that frontogenesis band. the sounding did not show any
instability, but given the degree of forcing and moisture
advection in that area (the sweet spot), would not be surprised
if some -epv develops and causes some convective snow bursts
with a clap of thunder. this will be the largest and most
widespread snowstorm to impact our area since february 2022!

the snow will rapidly taper off from west to east tonight as the
low and associated forcing move toward the new jersey coast and
a coastal low attempts to take over. this process will strip
away the moisture faster, which is why the synoptic snow will
end faster tonight than previously forecasted other than some
lingering light snow showers. nevertheless, travel impacts will
continue through the night as nw winds increase to 15-25 knots,
with occasional gusts to near 30 knots, allowing for some minor
blowing and drifting of the dry, fluffy snow. this will
especially be true in nw ohio and near the lakeshore. after a
lull much of the night, some wraparound moisture and strong cold
air advection across lakes huron and erie will set up some lake
enhanced and lake-effect snow showers in upslope favored regions
of the inland primary snowbelt of ne ohio and nw pa. this will
develop by 09-12z monday and continue through midday monday.
confidence in the amount of lake enhanced/effect snow has
decreased since there is no lingering trowal feature, the best
moisture strips away quickly, there is quite a bit of boundary
layer shear, and lake erie is ice-covered. this will probably
limit additional snow accumulations across the snowbelt monday
to 1 to 2 inches, with locally up to 3. the snow showers will
shift up the shoreline monday afternoon as the flow backs to sw
before ending by monday night.

key message 2...
a deep mid/upper trough will be reinforced across the central
and eastern conus in the wake of the storm downstream of
persistent strong ridging offshore of the west coast extending
up to alaska. this will send a renewed pool of arctic air into
much of the country east of the rockies as cross polar flow
continues. this combined with fresh, deep snowpack and sw winds
eliminating any warming from lake erie will allow for widespread
below zero temperatures monday night and tuesday morning. the
current forecasted lows may not be cold enough (it has been
trending colder), so we could see temperatures below -5 to -10
in a number of locations if trends continue. this along with sw
winds gusting to 15-25 knots at times will produce wind chills
as low as -20, so cold weather headlines will be needed monday
night into tuesday.

key message 3...
the aforementioned ridge/trough pattern and cross polar flow
will keep arctic air locked in place through next weekend. this
will be the coldest stretch of weather since late december 2017
through early january 2018. daily highs will struggle to rise
out of the low and mid teens through next saturday, with some
single digit highs on wednesday and thursday. lows will fall
below zero each night, with wind chills of -10 to -20 at times.
this prolonged cold will significantly increase risks for cold
exposure and infrastructure damage. in terms of snow chances,
frequent weak shortwave troughs and clipper-type systems will
bring bouts of light synoptic snow areawide, with periods of
lake- effect snow showers in the ne ohio and nw pa snowbelts.
details of these systems are unclear at this time, but the most
defined systems look to be late tuesday and wednesday night.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
widespread is ongoing with visibilities ranging from 1 1/2 sm to
as low as 1/4 sm at times. as deeper moisture arrives from the
southwest, should see visibilities under 1 sm become more
persistent later this morning and through the afternoon, with
periodic visibilities down to 1/4sm at times. snow ends from
west to east this evening and by midnight, leaving behind a
stratus deck with mvfr ceilings. lake effect snow is likely to
develop across portions of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania monday morning into monday afternoon, with variable
visibilities between 1-4 sm. cyclonic flow around 10-12 knots
become northwest tonight through monday.

outlook...during the rest of monday through thursday,
additional periods of snow with non-vfr are possible, especially
in ne oh and nw pa, where periodic lake-effect snow may occur
downwind of mainly ice-covered lake erie.

&&

.marine...
east-northeast flow becomes 15-20 knots today. winds become
northwest on monday and then southwest on tuesday. southwest winds
should generally be around 20-30 knots, though there is a very low
chance for gales (5-10%), especially in the far eastern basin. there
is also a low chance for low water in the western basin as well.
west winds of around 15 knots on wednesday become northwest thursday
into the weekend.

ice will continue to thicken through next weekend as several bouts
of cold air impact the region. stronger southwest winds on tuesday
may break up and shift the ice northeastward away from the
southwestern shoreline of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning until 7 am est monday for ohz003-006>008-
017.
winter storm warning until 10 am est monday for ohz009>014-
018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...winter storm warning until 1 pm est monday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1011 am est sun jan 25 2026

.key messages...
- winter storm warnings and advisories remain in effect today
into tonight, with some advisories lingering through monday
morning for lake effect snow behind the exiting system. travel
will be impacted today into monday morning, so if you must
travel allow for extra time to reach your destination

- a cold weather advisory is in effect for southwestern
portions of the area tonight into monday afternoon. wind
chills as cold as 20 below are expected in the advisory area.
the advisory may be expanded and/or extended into tuesday
morning as wind chills fall to 15 to 25 below zero.

- temperatures will remain well below freezing for at least the
next 7 days, with periods of sub zero wind chills along with
some lake effect snow showers.

&&

.update...
issued at 1000 am est sun jan 25 2026

previous forecast remains on track and no substantial changes
expected for the first period at this time.

widespread snow continues across the region, with trends over
past 2 to 4 hours of some short lived bursts of heavier snow in
brief enhanced banding. much of this banding is tied to mid
level frontogenesis which is being enhanced by a lead mid level
trough and a mid level speed max gaining strength across the
ohio valley. snowfall accumulations across the region vary from
a few inches across the northwest to the 4 to 7 inch range
across southeast half of the area across in/oh. where this mid
level fgen/banding has occurred, some brief but sharp
enhancements to snow to liquid ratios have occurred. storm total
amounts in much of the winter storm warning area may be
somewhat homogeneous as more optimal snow growth profiles and
deeper dgz have been slightly displaced from the best low level
moisture across the far southeast. would suspect as we enter
the 16-17z timeframe, the potential for better banding will
shift southeast of the area as lingering fgen becomes very
highly elevated around 500 mb and located in thermal profiles
colder than the dgz. this is also supported in nbm short term
probabilistic data with percentages of over 40% of snowfall
rates of 0.5 to 1" per hour shifting southeast of nw oh by 17z.
a few storm total amounts in the transition zone between
warning/advisory may approach the 6 to 8 inch range where snow
production has been most efficient, but not planning on any
immediate changes to headlines as lack of a higher end
blowing/drifting snow concern and expectation of more a steady,
light additional snow accumulation scenario argues for more of
an advisory level impact across se portions of the winter
weather advisory area.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 657 am est sun jan 25 2026

the main changes made to the forecast overnight were:

1. extended the winter storm advisories through 7 am et monday
morning for northern la porte and st. joseph counties in indiana-and
berrien, cass and st. joseph counties in michigan. a lake effect
snow band will cross into northern/southern la porte this evening
behind the system and shift east-northeastward overnight into monday
afternoon. lake effect snow will persist beyond this time in
berrien/cass/st. joseph, mi but didn`t want to have too many
segments in the current winter storm warnings/advisories. beyond 7
am et, the band is primarily in mi and the in counties may be able
to just drop. this also provides extra time to do a more thorough
analysis of the later periods, as the focus tonight was on the
winter storm. i suspect the advisory may need to be extended through
15-18z monday for the michigan counties-all depending on how quickly
the band moves and how intense it is.

2. cold weather advisory was issued for the southwestern in counties
(southern la porte down through southern kosciusko and jay/adams
county). wind chills as cold as 20 below are expected through monday
afternoon. we`ll see a brief period of relief before we drop down to
15 to 25 below for much of the forecast area monday night into
tuesday morning. additional headlines will be needed (further
northwest is on the threshold of advisory criteria).

more details...

system snow...

current headlines remain the same as far as the warnings and most of
the advisories outside of the lake effect potential late tonight-mon
am. overnight (as far as we know...haven`t received a ton of reports
yet) we got more snow than expected in some areas beneath a w-e
oriented snow band that initially developed around 1 am et along a
line from rensselaer to portland, in then lifted north into north
central in (including our pulaski, fulton, whitley, kosciusko and
allen co) and nw ohio (van wert, paulding, putnam co) by around 2-4
am. as it continued northeastward from there the eastern edge became
less intense, with a focus remaining from allen co in through
kosciusko/marshall/starke counties. it remained in these areas
for a bit-focusing more in kosciusko area before lifting
northeastward and diminishing somewhat. as synoptic
forcing/upper level divergence increased we began to see the
stronger more widespread system snow blossom (where we are now),
with the higher reflectivities along/south of us 24 or so. as
far as what we`ve received so far...we had a report from fort
wayne, in of 3 inches, our office had 3.6 inches (as of now),
and nappanee/elkhart area had about 1.0 as of 4-5 am am et (has
been snowing since then). we had a report of 2.6" in whitley
county as well (columbia city, in). we received a report from
bluffton, in around midnight that had an inch.

expecting the bulk of the snow for this system to occur over the
next 6-12 hours-with the far southeast areas seeing the greatest
totals (additional 5-7"). central advisory areas will see closer to
4 to 7 inches of additional accumulation, with the higher values
closer to us 24 and eastward from i 69. elsewhere, between 2 and 5
additional inches expected.

lake effect snow...

lake effect snow band for tonight (currently over lake mi/milwaukee
area) will shift back eastward with west-northwest flow behind the
system. models have decent qpf (0.1-0.15")with this band, especially
as it moves into laporte and starke from 7 pm-1 am et, and then even
into cass/berrien counties through about 10 am as the trough axis
moves in-with the southern extent becoming more limited with time.
it moves on to st. joseph, mi around 10am-1 pm et...dissipating as
it moves east. much of that initial snowfall in the western counties
is captured within the snow forecast sent out this morning (through
1 am tonight). my snow totals beyond the 1 am time frame assumed a
faster moving band and i did limit qpf to 0.12 in the places i was
most confident the band would persist, with a tight gradient around
that. i suspect based on the current models that i may be underdoing
the forecast for some areas...especially northern berrien/cass, mi
which is enhanced during the time the upper trough swings through (8
am-12pm, perhaps longer). some of the models had more like 0.25" in
the far nw cass/ne berrien counties for qpf in that period...which
would significantly raise the 1-2 inch forecast i have for that time
significantly. for simplicity (as mentioned above), i limited the
advisory time for these areas so that the in counties and system
snow drops off, with plans to possibly extend to the 10 am-1 pm et
monday period. once the current winter storm tapers off, we`ll look
further into monday with the latest high-res guidance.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 657 am est sun jan 25 2026

steady light to moderate snow with primarily ifr to lifr visbys will
persist today as a storm system lifts through the region. drier air
will filter into the terminals by ~00z with a trend toward mainly
dry conditions and mvfr to low vfr cigs. this improvement may be
brief however at ksbn as lake effect snow pivots in after midnight
with periods of reduced visbys possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday
for inz005>008-012>015-020-116-203-216.
winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
cold weather advisory from 1 am est /midnight cst/ to 1 pm est
/noon cst/ monday for inz012>015-020-022>027-032>034-203-
216.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est /6 am cst/ monday for
inz103-104-204.
oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 am est monday for miz080-081.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est monday for miz078-079-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...mcd
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1004 am est sun jan 25 2026

.key messages...

- a winter storm warning is in effect for monroe county, and winter
weather advisory along and south of the m 59 corridor as well as the
eastern thumb.

- light snow chances exist both tuesday and wednesday. fluffy snow
accumulations of up to 2 inches will be possible each day.

- very cold conditions continue next week with wind chills
occasionally dipping to 10 to 15 below zero.

&&

.update...

the going forecast appears to be in pretty good shape, and no
changes to headlines and amounts. the snow did come in a bit faster
last night. on the flip side, the snow looks to be diminishing
quickly early this evening, with bulk of the snow accumulation over
by around 00z. headlines (outside of the potential lake effect) may
be cancelled before midnight. upper level pv advection now through
about 21z will provide some decent snowfall rates around half an
inch per hour, but snow to liquid ratios in the mid teens should
keep rates under 1" per hour. 1-3 inches has already fallen south of
m-59, and additional 2-4 looks reasonable. will take a longer look at
the lake effect potential form lake huron with the afternoon
package. certainly a signal for the strong low level convergence/lift
to track through the northern thumb region overnight, which could
lead to brief period of heavy snow. however, looks like there will be
enough movement to keep totals in check. the significant ice cover
over southern lake huron should also limit moisture flux.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 555 am est sun jan 25 2026

aviation...

snowfall continues to overspread the terminals this morning with mbs
the last holdout. visibilities will deteriorate through the morning
hours with periods of ifr likely, especially for the southern three
sites (dtw/det/yip), although midday visibilities could also drop to
ifr for ptk/fnt during the peak of the event. ceilings continue to
steadily lower, but should stay mvfr for most of the day. wind
speeds hold around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, backing from
ne to nw by tonight. the heaviest snowfall and impact to visibility
should occur between 14z and 21z today with peak rates. conditions
improve this evening as the system moves east, but a few light snow
showers or flurries linger overnight before drier air arrives late
and scatters out the stratocumulus deck.

for dtw...accumulating snowfall continues until 23z this evening.
ifr conditions are expected with periods of lifr during the peak of
snowfall rates. light flurries possible with mvfr through 09z
monday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through 09z monday.

* high in precipitation type as snow.

* medium in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2 sm in falling
snow after 14z.

prev discussion...
issued at 355 am est sun jan 25 2026

discussion...

coupled upper level jet dynamics with strong anticyclonic curvature
to the forward +180 kt streak will guide 850-700m baroclinic
wave/circulation through the northern ohio river valley while
locking in the northern fringes of the deformation axis over
southeast michigan today. much of the forecast reasoning provided in
earlier discussions remains valid. the inherited grids were largely
maintained with a few upward revisions to the pops. as previous
discussions have stated, the gradient of the liquid equivalent in
close proximity to the area presents a challenge. survey of the
25.00z nwp with context provided by the 5.0 nbm snowfall percentiles
suggests no substantial trends or changes to the storm total qpf for
much of southeast michigan. overall, thinking stands at .25 to .40
inch range event total. limitations on the upper end for snowfall
amounts, are compromised ice crystal microphysics with more of a
fine sugar type habit thus far and snowfall ratios that are
forecasted at/around 14:1. forecast soundings show relatively high
stability for much of today between a deep 2.5 and 20.0 kft agl
which suggests the system here locally is really going to rely on
forced ascent with any true upright warm frontal structure well to
the southeast of toledo. supersaturation with respect to ice is very
deep and the overall forecast and messaging is in good shape. storm
total snowfall of 5-8 inches for monroe county, 4-7 inches for
lenawee, washtenaw, and wayne, and 2-4 inches with isolated 5 inches
amounts along the m 59 corridor. in-house timed lagged ensemble data
suggests very little potential to reach inch per hour rates and so
additional warning upgrades were made.

the one significant change to the forecast was to expand the winter
weather advisory for huron and sanilac counties in effect until 10am
monday. raw output of hi resolution cams suggests lake effect
banding will push into and swing through eastern sections of the
thumb in vicinity of the lake huron shoreline. there is uncertainty
in timing, but guidance suggests the potential between 03-14z
monday. 00z runs of the hrrr, arw, and mpas all are fairly bullish
on qpf amounts over huron and sanilac counties. for posterity, there
is a very lean qpf signal in the both the aigfs and ecmwf aifs.
forecast soundings show convective heights rising to 8.0 kft agl
with uvv signal intersecting the dendritic growth zone. for
messaging, snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches will be possible.

the big narrative for the upcoming week remains the continuation of
the below normal temperatures winter pattern. current guidance
supports forecasted windchill values of -10 to -17f for tuesday,
wednesday and thursday mornings. refinements will be made in the
coming days as conditions will obviously be dependent on wind
forecasts and the expected cloud cover. windchill or cold weather
advisories may be needed at some point. highs throughout the weak are
expected to reach the teens above zero, which is approximately 10 to
15 degrees below normal.

the other item to address is the potential for light snow during
each of the days tuesday and wednesday. current offered guidance is
extremely lean on both pops (only a chance) and snow amounts. up to
2 inches of snowfall appears possible/reasonable with very high
liquid to snow ratios and very low qpf. dynamics for tuesday will be
tied to direct absolute vorticity advection from amplified
shortwave, while dynamics wednesday appears arise from thermal
surface troughing developing under a strong polar vorticity trough
aloft.

marine...

light winds hold through the day as a strong high pressure departs
into into quebec. light snow to continue across the southern great
lakes as an expansive low pressure winter storm system moves through
the appalachia region. embedded lake effect snow bands will also be
likely through central and southern lake huron into monday, where
some rapid reductions in visibility will be possible. cold air is
reinforced within the wake of this low across the great lakes early
next week, which will bring the return of elevated wind gusts
through the midweek period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am est monday for miz049-055.

winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for miz063-
068>070-075-076-082.

winter storm warning until midnight est tonight for miz083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......sf
aviation.....kgk
discussion...cb
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.