Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
712
fxus61 kcle 132107
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
407 pm est tue jan 13 2026

.what has changed...
snowfall amounts wednesday through thursday have slightly
increased across the primary and secondary snowbelts of ne ohio,
as well as in nw pa. a winter weather advisory has been issued
for cuyahoga, lake, geauga, and ashtabula counties in ohio from
14z wednesday through 00z friday and for erie and crawford
counties in pa from 16z wednesday through 06z friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain will develop early wednesday morning and quickly
change to snow by midday, with snow continuing into wednesday
night. this could cause a messy evening commute.

2) temperatures will rapidly fall below freezing wednesday morning
and into the teens wednesday night into thursday with below
zero wind chills, posing a minor cold exposure risk.

3) lake-effect snow will continue in the snowbelts of ne ohio and
nw pa thursday, and this will result in additional
accumulations and locally hazardous travel conditions.

4) additional rounds of light snow are expected friday through early
next week, with temperatures trending even colder this weekend
and early next week. this will likely lead to the coldest air of
the season and wind chills well below zero at times.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
we will return to winter wednesday as a large mid/upper trough digs
through the great lakes and ohio valley regions. the initial
northern stream low associated with this trough will progress
across ontario and quebec through the day, dragging an arctic
cold front through our region wednesday morning. as the
mid/upper trough digs, shortwave energy in the base of the
trough will support surface cyclogenesis on the arctic frontal
boundary over the lower ohio valley wednesday morning. this low
will lift toward the new england region through the day while
quickly transferring its energy to a coastal low by wednesday
night. as the low develops, increasing moisture advection and
isentropic lift will lead to widespread rain spreading into the
region by sunrise wednesday. cold air advection behind the
arctic front and wet bulbing will quickly change this rain to
snow from west to east wednesday morning. most of the area will
be snow by 15z, with the oh/pa border seeing snow by 17z. this
will set up a messy evening commute. the heaviest snow will fall
wednesday afternoon and evening across the primary and
secondary snowbelts of ne ohio and across nw pa as 850 mb temps
falling below -15 c combined with nw boundary layer flow and
deep wraparound moisture leads to lake enhancement. this will
be especially notable in southern cuyahoga, northern summit,
northern portage, geauga, southern lake, inland ashtabula,
southern erie, and crawford counties where upsloping will lead
to higher snowfall amounts. the lake enhanced synoptic snow will
gradually wind down from west to east wednesday night.

key message 2...
non-diurnal temperatures will occur wednesday as temperatures
quickly fall behind the arctic front. highs will occur around
sunrise, when upper 30s to around 40 are expected, then fall
through the 20s in the afternoon. this could cause a flash
freeze on any wet roads, sidewalks, and surfaces that are not
treated, but the biggest impacts from the flash freeze will
likely occur just after the morning commute. as 850 mb temps
drop to -19 to -21 c wednesday night and thursday, temperatures
will continue to plummet into the teens. highs thursday will
struggle to reach the 20s, with below zero wind chills wednesday
night and thursday morning. while this is not at criteria for a
cold weather headline, it will still pose a cold exposure risk.
people should limit time outdoors and dress in layers if you
need to go out.

key message 3...
as the lake enhanced synoptic snow ends late wednesday night, we
will transition to lake-effect snow by thursday morning, and
this will continue into early thursday night before ending. nw
boundary layer flow will support multiple bands across the
primary and secondary snowbelts of ne ohio, as well as nw pa.
the very cold 850 mb temps will lead to plenty of lake induced
instability, but the main question mark is the degree of
leftover boundary layer moisture. forecast soundings are
trending drier as the coastal low takes over, and with a short
fetch, this should keep additional snow amounts thursday from
getting out of hand. the total snowfall from wednesday through
thursday should stay in the advisory range for the most part,
with 2 to 5 inches across the primary and secondary snowbelts of
ne ohio and 3 to 7 inches across inland nw pa. the wildcard is a
potential lake huron band into eastern erie county during the
day thursday. some href guidance and the 12z rgem is higher on
snowfall totals in that area, but given the lower confidence in
the moisture profile, kept snowfall in the advisory range at
this time. this will be monitored for locally higher snow.
shortwave ridging will bring the snow showers to an end thursday
night. outside of the snowbelt areas, total snowfall wednesday
through thursday should average 1 to 3 inches in north central
ohio and 1 inch or less in nw ohio.

key message 4...
deep troughing will continue across central and eastern north
america through early next week, with a series of clipper
systems and lake-effect snow keeping the pattern very cold and
active. temperatures will rebound into the low 30s friday and
saturday ahead of a pretty strong mid/upper shortwave and
associated surface low crossing the great lakes. this clipper
will bring widespread light snow late friday into early
saturday, with additional lake-effect snow possible saturday and
sunday in far ne ohio and nw pa, although wsw boundary layer
flow may keep the bulk of this in western ny. the clipper itself
is trending more potent and will need to be watched for higher
snow amounts than currently forecasted. another and colder push
of arctic air will follow the clipper late saturday and sunday,
with temperatures falling back through the teens and low 20s.
another clipper monday will bring additional snow and even
colder air for next week, with lake-effect snow showers
continuing at times. temperatures monday and tuesday will likely
stay in the teens. below zero overnight and morning wind chills
are likely saturday night and sunday night, and these wind
chills will be even colder early next week, so cold weather
advisories will be possible.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
as a low pressure system approaches from the west, expecting
flight categories to deteriorate through the taf period.
starting off vfr, although overcast fl090-120 for the most part
across the region, and winds continue to gust in the 20-30kt
range for most terminals. warm frontal passage, dry later this
afternoon, and then a cold front comes through after 10z or so
tonight from the northwest. this will increase chances for
precipitation that may start out with rain at first, but will
likely change to snow fairly quickly. ceilings lower with the
cold front, and visibilities will as well in snow. ifr at times
after 12z wednesday should be expected, but as snow goes,
visibilities can be variable and may need to add tempo groups.

outlook...non-vfr expected to continue into wednesday night and
thursday, most numerous east of the i-71 corridor in lake effect
snow showers. non-vfr likely in snow showers on friday and
saturday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 20-30kts with wave heights 4-8ft in the central and
eastern basins of lake erie ahead of a pair of cold fronts will
become northwesterly 20-30kts wednesday through wednesday night and
wave heights continuing at 4-8ft. small craft advisories through
this period are in effect through the early part of thursday. winds
southwesterly/offshore 15-25kts thursday night through friday keep
the wave heights in the open water zones around 4-8ft once again,
but in the nearshore zones around 1-2ft.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 9 am wednesday to 7 pm est
thursday for ohz011>014-089.
pa...winter weather advisory from 11 am wednesday to 1 am est
friday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 1 pm est thursday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
208
fxus63 kiwx 131922
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
222 pm est tue jan 13 2026

.key messages...

- winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories have
replaced the previous winter storm watch. headlines are in
effect from 7 am edt wednesday to 1 pm edt thursday.

- snow accumulations of 4-8" are expected wednesday morning
through thursday afternoon, with the highest amounts in
berrien, la porte, and st joseph counties.

- strong northwesterly winds will gust as high as 35 to 40 mph
on wednesday, especially near lake michigan. within lake
effect snow bands, a combo of falling and blowing snow will
lead to visibilities near zero.

- travel will be treacherous, especially for the wednesday
evening and thursday morning commutes. avoid or postpone
travel, if possible, from wednesday afternoon through
thursday morning.

- additional snow accumulations of 1-3" are likely friday
morning. lake effect snow possible through the weekend.

- cold with highs only in the teens and lows in the single
digits by sunday and monday. wind chills below zero possible
at night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 218 pm est tue jan 13 2026

today...

a large low pressure system currently centered over ontario will
provide ample opportunities for precipitation (mainly snow)
through thursday. a surface trough is currently pivoting through
the area providing lift, but with limited moisture to work
with, not much is happening. light reflectivity returns have
been showing up on radar over the past few hours but surface
observations reveal that none of it has reached the ground this
afternoon. with waa boosting highs into the 40s this afternoon,
any precipitation that does fall will be sprinkles or light
rain.

tonight through wednesday morning...

the low is expected to deepen as it traverses north of the great
lakes region tonight and into early wednesday. the system`s
attendant cold front sweeps through tonight which means that
temperatures will be falling wednesday in the wake of the front.
wednesday`s high temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 will
likely be reached shortly after midnight tonight. with a tightening
pressure gradient on the backside of the low, gusty northwest winds
will develop early wednesday morning before daybreak. northwest wind
gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph are possible. a secondary stronger
cold front moves through around 12z wednesday. this will intensify
caa and help temperatures to continue to fall wednesday morning.
some rain/snow mix will likely accompany these two fronts, although
precipitation amounts will be light tonight into early
wednesday (only a few hundredths of qpf). a brief period of
synoptic (system) snow may accompany the secondary cold front
between 09-15z wednesday, bringing around 0.5-1" of snow to the
entire forecast area.

wednesday morning to thursday morning...

confidence is increasing for an impactful lake effect snow event to
develop for northwest indiana and potentially far southwest lower
michigan wednesday morning lasting through at least thursday
morning. in the wake of the cold fronts wednesday morning,
temperatures will be within a few degrees above or below of the
freezing mark. caa and strong low level convergent
north/northwesterly winds will allow for lake effect snow to develop
downwind of lake michigan between 12-15z wednesday. with strong
north/northwest winds, a lake superior-lake michigan connection is
likely to develop, which will allow for n-s oriented lake effect
snow bands to persist fairly far inland away from the lake. latest
hi-res model guidance keeps much of the lake effect snow confined
along/west of us 31 in indiana, but i wouldn`t be surprised if lake
effect reaches as far south as the i-70 corridor in central indiana
(some runs of the hrrr extrapolate lake effect as far south as
louisville by wednesday evening!)

delta t`s will be as high as 17-18c with cold air moving over the
still relatively mild and unfrozen lake michigan (water temps
between 1-3c). in addition, parameters appear favorable for periods
of moderate to heavy lake effect snow, especially later wednesday
into early thursday. forecast soundings at benton harbor and
michigan city depict increasing lift and saturation within the dgz,
especially after 18z wednesday inversion heights rise during the day
wednesday to around 8000 ft. a potent upper level trough pivoting
through wednesday night will help to increase instability and large-
scale ascent, and help to intensify snow rates. at times, snowfall
rates will be 1-2" per hour. after 00z thursday, hi-res model
guidance favors a bi-modal lake effect snow band setup. right now,
the thinking is maybe one lake effect snow band goes through
northern berrien, cass [mi], and st joseph [in], and maybe into
elkhart counties and the other goes through portions of la
porte, starke, marshall, and possibly as far south as pulaski
and fulton counties in indiana. nevertheless, berrien, la porte,
and st joesph counties will likely be where the highest snow
totals are. amounts will vary widely over a small area with a
sharp cutoff between light snow and the heaviest lake effect
snow likely occurring within a 20- 30 mile span. slrs are
currently forecast to be around 20:1 but i wouldn`t be surprised
if slrs overperform with the lake effect band(s) and someone
ends up getting closer to a 30:1 ratio downwind of lake
michigan.

the previous winter storm watch has been upgraded to
warning/advisory headlines. a winter storm warning will be in effect
from 7 am edt wednesday to 1 pm edt thursday for berrien, la porte,
and st joseph counties. snow accumulations of 6-8" are expected,
with locally higher amounts possible. somewhere in the warning area
will likely have over a foot of snow. elsewhere, a winter weather
advisory has been issued for cass, starke, and marshall counties.
snow accumulations in the advisory area will generally be between 2-
6". snow amounts will be highly variable from west to east across
cass county, mi.

it is also going to be windy on the backside of the deepening low
pressure system, with northwest winds intensify wednesday and
gust as high as 35 to 40 mph on wednesday. whiteout conditions
will be possible at times with visibilities near zero,
especially in the warning area. blowing and drifting snow is
also likely for both n-s and e-w oriented roads. as conditions
deteriorate wednesday, travel will become treacherous. the
wednesday evening and thursday morning commutes will be impacted
by snow, rapidly reduced visibilities, and strong northwesterly
wind gusts. avoid or postpone travel, if possible, from
wednesday afternoon through thursday morning.

thursday evening...

a brief lull in precipitation develops for about 6-12 hours thursday
afternoon and evening. subsidence gradually works in thursday
afternoon and cuts off any lingering lake effect snow. depending on
how long it takes for lake effect snow to fully taper off, the
thursday evening commute may also be slick and hazardous.

friday and into the weekend...

in quick succession with the midweek lake effect event, yet another
area of low pressure tracks through the great lakes region on
friday. with colder air in place, a combo of accumulating system and
lake effect snow is possible area-wide on friday and saturday. snow
on friday will be during the first half of the day. the friday
morning commute will likely be hazardous as snow will already be
falling before daybreak friday. snow accumulations of 1-2" are
possible area-wide, with isolated 3" amounts north of us 30. lake
effect snow then develops and persists through the weekend, although
it may not be as intense as the midweek event. it will be windy
again too, with northwest winds gusting as high as 20 to 30 mph at
times friday, saturday, and sunday. highs will be in the 20s with
lows in the single digits both days this weekend. wind chills below
zero at times (especially at night). colder air continues into early
next week with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits on
monday and tuesday as well.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1134 am est tue jan 13 2026

shortwave tracking east into the great lakes will provide the
terminals with breezy pre-frontal southwest winds and mid level
cloud cover this afternoon. vfr otherwise before a secondary
wave and associated cold front drops through later tonight
with gusty northwest winds, snow showers and mvfr cigs into
much of the day on wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 7 am est /6 am cst/ wednesday to
1 pm est /noon cst/ thursday for inz012-014.
winter storm warning from 7 am est /6 am cst/ wednesday to 1
pm est /noon cst/ thursday for inz103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory from 7 am wednesday to 1 pm est
thursday for miz078.
winter storm warning from 7 am wednesday to 1 pm est thursday
for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est wednesday for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 4 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
826
fxus63 kdtx 132324
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
624 pm est tue jan 13 2026

.key messages...

- rain quickly transitioning to snow early wednesday morning with
light snow showers lingering through the afternoon. accumulations
between a dusting to an half inch for most locations, with isolated
amounts near 1 inch.

- a winter storm watch is in effect for eastern huron and
northeastern sanilac counties late wednesday afternoon through
thursday morning due to the potential for persistent onshore lake
effect bands. accumulations of 5-7" possible for these eastern
lakeshore areas.

- much colder late this week and into next weekend. thursday morning
wind chills reach negative single digits for most areas.

- periodic chances for snow will exist friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a midlevel trough will amplify over the great lakes and northwestern
ontario tonight sending a series of cold fronts through southeast
michigan tonight and wednesday. initial cold air advection is
responsible for vfr stratus now emerging downwind of lake
michigan and mvfr stratocumulus deck now building southward through
mbs and the thumb. secondary cold front will be much stronger and is
timed through the cwa between 10 and 15z. there is some model signal
that near surface saturation may result in some light drizzle
activity with surface temperatures above freezing in advance of the
front. snow showers and potential very brief snow squalls then
appear possible immediately behind the shallow cold front. have
included a tempo group for ifr conditions. then good model signal
for improving conditions with dry air for the late morning and
afternoon hours before main vorticity maximum clips the forecast
area between 21-24z. additional snow showers will be possible during
the late afternoon but coverage is very low confidence.

for dtw... light snow flurries and drizzle appear possible 9-12z
wednesday morning before the a strong cold front pushes through the
area. snow showers and potential very brief snow squalls will be
possible 12-15z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet today, medium tonight.

* high for precipitation type of rain this afternoon. high for snow
after 06z wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 309 pm est tue jan 13 2026

discussion...

light showers pushed east of the region shortly before time of
discussion affording a dry start to the evening as the clipper over
the northern great lakes reaches eastern ontario. arrival of the
weak lead cold front after 00z this evening supports another round
of scattered light showers/drizzle mainly north of i-94 where
greater column moisture resides. wider spread precip chances quickly
follow overnight as the trailing arctic cold front drops through
southern lower mi between 08-14z. with only modest cold air
advection following the lead front, surface/wet bulb temperatures
are forecast to be just above freezing in the mid to lower 30s
keeping initial precipitation as rain (or rain-snow mix in heavier
activity). this however is expected to only last for an hour or so
from onset with a quick transition to all snow as temperatures
rapidly fall below freezing and into the 20s in the immediate wake
of the arctic front. limited available moisture confines the primary
accumulation window along the frontal circulation, which given the
higher likelihood for lead rain before transitioning, keeps
potential accumulations light- dusting to around a half inch with
higher amounts towards an inch being much more isolated.

additional light snow showers work across se mi wednesday morning
before the drier arctic airmass can sufficiently cut off lake
moisture penetrating this far south. minimal additional snowfall
expected, with most areas seeing a dusting at most. exception to
this still looking to be the easternmost thumb due to north-
northwest winds within the lake aggregate trough drawing long axis
lake huron banding near/overhead. while it carries high sensitivity
to any shift to more pure northwesterly flow, high-res model runs
continue to advertise enough of a northerly wind component to
maintain defined banding over areas along/east of a port austin-port
sanilac line from late wednesday afternoon through early thursday
morning. should these more persistent/longer duration solutions
manifest, there is concern these eastern lakeshore areas to be see
accumulations up to 5-7" by thursday morning. though more borderline
for a warning given the longer duration, opted to issue a winter
storm watch for eastern huron and northeastern sanilac counties
given the consistency amongst the high-res models for onshore
banding offering a shot to reach/exceed the 7" warning threshold.

core of the arctic airmass settles over the central great lakes
wednesday-thursday as 850mb temps fall to -17c. lows by thursday
morning fall to single digits with wind chills ranging from 0 to
-10f. highs thursday struggle to break into the 20s with some areas,
particularly the thumb, favored to only top out in the teens. some
moderation occurs friday in advance of the next clipper dropping out
of northern canada with temps recovering back towards freezing.
widespread accumulating snowfall (an inch or two) is likely with
this system friday followed by another round of scattered lake
effect snow showers/flurries and the return of arctic air for the
weekend.

marine...

gusty southwest winds through the afternoon begin to decrease
slightly this evening. isolated gusts to gales are possible within
the next few hours but observations thus far suggest lower column
stability will continue to hold the stronger magnitude winds aloft.
an arctic cold front will drop across the central great lakes
wednesday morning with wind shifting nw to n. winds again become
gusty to around 25 to 30 knots through the day which paired with
inbound arctic air will bring heavy freezing spray to lake huron,
where a heavy freezing spray warning is in effect. ensemble guidance
retains less than a 30% chance for gusts to gales across
central/southern lake huron wednesday afternoon and evening. lake
effect snow squalls will increase in coverage through the day as
well and persist into wednesday night and thursday. winds speeds
steadily decrease thursday with a passing surface ridge axis, then
flip southerly by friday ahead of the next clipper system.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm watch from wednesday afternoon through thursday
morning for miz049-055.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est
thursday for lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning from 11 am wednesday to 10 am est
thursday for lhz363-421-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kdk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.