Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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576
fxus61 kcle 281717
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
117 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

.what has changed...
rain no longer expected on thursday, with pops trending higher
late thursday night into friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather continues with temperatures rising to to upper
70s and low 80s wednesday and thursday.

2) rain showers return thursday night into friday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to build into the area, becoming
centered over the lower great lakes region on tuesday. dry and
seasonable weather is expected to continue.

southwest flow develops on the backside of the departing high on
wednesday, with above normal temperatures expected on wednesday
and thursday as highs rise to the upper 70s wednesday afternoon
and around 80 thursday afternoon.

key message 2...
a weakening southern-stream disturbance over the southwest will
become increasingly sheared through midweek, with associated
moisture spreading northeastward within strengthening
southwesterly flow. a northern-stream trough crossing ontario
thursday into friday will drive a cold front across the region.
the combination of increasing moisture and frontal forcing
should result in increasing shower changes thursday night into
friday.

model guidance continues to trend towards a slower system with a
lower qpf solution. thursday is now expected to be dry with rain
showers with most of the mainstream global nwp starting to bring
rain showers into the northern and western parts of the forecast
area thursday night. the ai models, including the ecwmf aifs and
aigfs have slower solutions and have tended to outperform their
physically derived counterparts (gfs/ecmwf), so would expect
the forecast to continue trending drier thursday night with a
better chance of rain showers on friday instead. overall qpf is
likely to be light (most model guidance at or less than 0.5"
qpf) and thunderstorms are very unlikely due to the lack of
instability expected.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
broken mid-level clouds will persist across portions of ne
oh/nw pa through early this evening, but any remaining mvfr
conditions should improve to vfr near or shortly after 00z. by
late tonight/early tuesday morning, additional fog and low
stratus will develop across the area. most terminals will
experience a period of mvfr/ifr conditions, although inland
terminals and possibly keri could have lifr visibilities and
ceilings between roughly 09z and 12z tuesday morning. conditions
will gradually improve tuesday morning into tuesday afternoon.

winds will be out of the north at 5 to 10 knots through early
this evening before becoming light and variable through the end
of the taf period.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. non-
vfr possible in scattered showers thursday through saturday.

&&

.marine...
as north winds diminish, 2-3 ft waves this morning will improve
to nearly calm conditions by late this afternoon. these
conditions will continue through at least tuesday evening as
high pressure remains overhead.

southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots develops tuesday night as
high pressure departs to the east, continuing through wednesday
night. flow strengthens to 15 to to 20 knots and becomes
southwesterly on thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...15
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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397
fxus63 kiwx 281747
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
147 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather continues through wednesday with
highs in the 70s to around 80.

- rain is expected late thursday into early friday. around an
inch is anticipated for most locations. no severe weather or
significant flooding is expected.

- rain showers may linger into the weekend but confidence is
low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 147 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

another day with a largely persistence forecast as midlevel ridge
and associated surface anticyclone remain locked over the great
lakes. new england upper low finally opens up and lifts toward the
canadian maritimes tomorrow allowing our ridge to drift eastward and
southwest return flow to increase by late in the day. one more
clear/calm night first though with lows in the upper 40s to around
50f. patchy fog is possible once again but crossover temps may be a
little harder to exceed than previous nights. not expecting any
widespread, dense fog but nearly ideal radiational cooling always
raises the possibility for some localized impacts as we have seen
the past two days.

attention then turns to the northern stream pacific jet currently
entering british columbia and the upper low digging through
california. the eastward migration of these two features will drive
our sensible weather through the second half of the week. the
initial cold front still looks to stall to our northwest on wed as
it becomes increasingly divorced from the leading midlevel shortwave
and strong southwest flow develops in the upper midwest downstream
of ejecting upper low. can`t entirely rule out a stray shower in our
far nw wed evening but by and large expect one more day of dry and
pleasant weather with highs near 80f. this front doesn`t really
cross our area until late thu, possibly extending into fri, as we
await the arrival of a secondary, much more potent northern stream
trough. good 850mb theta-e will be pumped into the region ahead of
the southern stream upper low by thu but surface dewpoints are still
only in the low/mid 60s with poor lapse rates aloft yielding very
meager instability profiles. this is especially true if precip holds
off until thu night as is currently trending. some embedded
thunderstorms certainly possible but severe weather is not expected.
marginal instability will aid rain coverage/intensity but without a
strong convective element expect more of a widespread, moderate rain
event. rain amounts around an inch are likely for most with pockets
of 1.5" possible. given recent stretch of dry weather, our area
should be able to tolerate that with minimal impacts. still some
uncertainty with the weekend forecast and whether or not this
frontal boundary completely clears our cwa as remnant upper low/
moisture plume slowly eject eastward. no changes to concensus
initialization here.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1259 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

high pressure over the great lakes continues to promote light
wind and overall tranquil conditions. fog avoided the terminals
early this morning and was most dense immediately downwind of
lake michigan along the in-il line. for early tuesday morning,
forecast soundings show favorable radiational cooling but low-
level saturation is not quite achieved. high resolution guidance
is otherwise split on any coverage of br/fg. will pass on these
concerns to the incoming shift.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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719
fxus63 kdtx 281707
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
107 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into wednesday.

- areas of dense fog expected this morning and tuesday morning.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of the week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.aviation...

deep layer stability held within low and mid level ridging will
continue to limit cloud production this taf period. the surface high
is forecast to drift across the area tonight. not nearly as
favorable of an environment to encourage greater advective fog
development off lake huron as noted last night as prevailing wind
turns more variable. with that, the combination of a clear, light
wind and sufficient near surface saturation may encourage some areas
of radiational fog late tonight. forecast will continue to highlight
prospective ifr to mvfr visibility restrictions for all lcoation,
while affording further refinement to below ifr should trends become
more definitive on a greater coverage of dense fog.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling/visibility at/below 200 ft / 1/2 sm early tuesday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 am edt mon sep 28 2026

discussion...

fog development is following a similar temporal cadence to yesterday
as noted via nighttime microphysics rgb. the geographic footprint of
the fog plume, however, is taking on a more southerly drift given
the backed wind direction in comparison to yesterday while also
showing signs of mechanical turbulence. nonetheless, likely to see
another localized area of dense fog for the thumb areas and
northeast suburbs as winds go calmer toward daybreak. mos guidance
is also still on track for another round of fog tuesday morning, and
more bullish than the past few days as remnant moisture from the
deformation axis wraps around the high pressure center. this
coincides with the high pressure center moving overhead which will
minimize gradient flow for optimized radiative cooling/fog
potential. fog lifts and mixes out by mid-morning both today and
tuesday, extending the stretch of dry and seasonable fall weather
for se michigan. daytime highs both days expected to peak in the low-
mid 70s under plenty of sunshine.

a pattern shift begins tuesday on the western flank of the high
noted by a wind shift to the southwest. this leads to modest thermal
advection that peaks tuesday night, boosting h8 temperatures from 10
c to 15 c by wednesday morning. the first round of mid-level height
falls approaches early wednesday to bring thickening mid-level cloud
to the region. by this point the east coast system will be dislodged
and the low levels will be characterized by the western flank of
broad eastern conus high pressure. this will be quite effective in
stalling low level moisture transport to our west through much of
the day wednesday, keeping the majority of se michigan dry but
cloudy with virga. the trend toward a drier forecast wednesday also
boosts the temperature forecast for wednesday, with highs expected
to climb into the mid-upper 70s.

rain chances then increase wednesday night and persist through at
least thursday as northern stream troughing phases with the broad
deformation/trough axis over central conus. the low level height
field tightens quickly wednesday night as the trough approaches,
leading to strengthening llj winds to about 50 knots by thursday
morning. on its own this causes breezy sw flow across se michigan
thursday where gusts to 25 mph are possible. the enhanced sw flow
will also enhanced moisture transport into lower michigan, which
will be engaged by the deformation and approaching frontal forcing
to bring rain to the region thursday. forcing will be defined
primarily by deformation and waa while lapse rates stay moist
adiabatic, so expecting a light-moderate stratiform nature to
thursday`s rain chances. that said, the impressive moisture axis
(pwat nearly 2.0") will take most of the day to sink south across
lower michigan which could grind out 0.50-0.75" when all is said and
done. that said, preceding dry weather and long duration rainfall
limits flooding concerns with this rain.

a meaningful cool down is then expected friday into the weekend post-
front, with showers tapering off friday. there is still some
uncertainty as to how aggressively high pressure pushes in behind
the fropa, which keeps low rain chances going through friday.
temperature prospects for the weekend carry higher confidence, with
highs only reaching the mid 60s and lows back into the 40s to start
october.

marine...

high pressure to hold over the great lakes through tomorrow. this
will cap wind gusts to or below 15 knots for most locations. wind
direction will mainly hold from the north to northwest today but
will back to the south to southwest tomorrow after the passage of a
warm front. the next chance for rain and possible some thunderstorms
will return wednesday and thursday ahead of and along a cold front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.