Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
645
fxus61 kcle 181051
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
651 am edt sat apr 18 2026

.what has changed...
the conditional severe weather threat remains on track for
today, depending on how our area recovers from incoming rain and
clouds this morning. there is very high confidence in the need
for frost/freeze headlines on sunday and monday nights.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers with some thunderstorms with severe potential are
expected this afternoon, mainly between noon and 6 pm. damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two are all possible
with storms. the greatest potential for severe storms is in
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

2) a cold air mass enters for sunday and monday, bringing below
normal temperatures to the area. residual rain will be in place
on sunday with some changeover to snow on sunday night. the
colder air will allow for frost/freeze potential on sunday and
monday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
early this morning, a qlcs line of storms is moving across
indiana, weakening as it pushes east into a more stable
atmosphere. storms are beginning to transition to an elevated
status as a strong outflow boundary is developing and pushing
ahead of the main convective cores. the remnants of this line of
thunderstorms will enter northwest ohio later this morning and
continue eastward, modifying the air mass ahead of the cold
front today.

the main show for today will begin closer to the noon hour as a
new round of showers with some thunderstorms will develop with
energy moving aloft ahead of the main cold front. this boundary
will be the feature where showers and storms focus on
redeveloping in north central ohio. the wind field ahead of the
front will be favorable for severe weather with 40-50 kts of
southerly 925 mb flow and 60-70 kts of westerly 500 mb flow
aloft that will sustain storms. however, the question of the day
just comes down to thermodynamics of the atmosphere for the
amount and intensity of thunderstorms. the region dried out
significantly on friday and surface dew points are barely
reaching 50 degrees early this morning. the remnant convection
entering this morning will add some moisture to the region, but
there will be some dependency on the southerly low level jet to
try and advect better moisture into the region. the other
question will then be how much instability will be in place. the
remnant convection this morning will introduce clouds and may
taper afternoon temperatures. therefore, mid-to-upper 70s may
only be achieved in the eastern third of the forecast area,
which is where any activity could pick up later today.

in short, the severe threat for today remains conditional for
the eastern two-thirds of the area with the potential for an
organized severe weather threat or busting to just be some perky
showers and some embedded thunder with the cold front. the area
remains outlooked with a slight risk from spc and all severe
hazards remain possible, although damaging winds will be the
most likely threat. the timing for the strongest storms remains
focused in the noon to 6 pm time frame. rain chances will
persist behind the main convection tonight with the upper trough
moving through the region.

key message 2...
this evening`s cold frontal passage will be a jolting change
after several days of 70 and 80 degree high temperatures. once
clouds and precipitation move out of the region, temperatures
will fall into the 30s across the area tonight. if winds can
settle down a bit, there is even a small chance for the need
for additional frost mention in the forecast and maybe a frost
advisory for western areas.

for sunday, a residual trough over the area will allow for
light, scattered rain showers to continue, mostly focused in the
upslope areas, downwind of lake erie in ne oh and nw pa. on
sunday night, colder air aloft along with some lake enhancement
will allow for rain to persist in ne oh and nw pa with some
changeover to snow becoming more likely and have push more snow
mentions in the forecast. overall, accumulations will be
negligible, given warm surface/pavement temperatures that will
need to be overcome. high temperatures on sunday will be a mix
of upper 40s to mid 50s. low temperatures on sunday night will
be in the upper 20s and lower 30s with widespread frost
expected. the growing season is in effect for the entire
forecast area and frost/freeze headlines will be needed for a
large portion of the forecast area.

dry conditions are expected for monday with incoming high
pressure. high temperatures will be cool in the 40s. lows on
monday night will be in the 20s and 30s with widespread frost
expected again. another round of frost/freeze headlines will be
needed for the area.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
the main concerns for aviation weather over the next 24 hours
will be the scattered convection associated with the cold front
moving through the area today. conditions will eventually become
mvfr later this morning through the afternoon. the timing of
the potential for scattered convection is mentioned in the tafs
from east to west during this morning through the afternoon.
tempo groups are highlighting the timing of potential impacts of
mvfr to lower end mvfr due to the convection. behind the front,
mvfr ceilings and scattered showers are expected through
this afternoon and evening. winds will increase through
this morning 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. by midday into
the afternoon, winds will become southwesterly 15 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots. the gusts will relax after 00z
this evening but remain westerly around 10 to 12 knots.

outlook...brief/spotty non-vfr possible in scattered rain and
snow showers early sunday morning through the first half of
sunday night. non-vfr possible tuesday night and wednesday in
rain showers.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly winds will increase saturday morning
through the afternoon 15 to 20 knots ahead of a cold front.
behind the cold front saturday night, winds will become westerly
15 to 20 knots. a small craft advisory will likely be needed
saturday night into sunday. winds on sunday will be westerly 15
to 20 knots then oscillate between westerly to northwesterly
while dissipating to 10-15 knots by sunday night as high
pressure builds overhead. by monday, winds will be northwesterly
around 10 knots. a southerly flow of winds 10 to 20 knots will
return late monday night into tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
647
fxus63 kiwx 181028
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
628 am edt sat apr 18 2026

.key messages...


- periods of rain this morning, but then no widespread rain
chances are expected until thursday night into friday.

- much cooler temperatures arrive and persist into early next
week with chances for near or below freezing temps sunday and
monday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 252 am edt sat apr 18 2026

tonight and saturday:
the risk for severe weather has ended for tonight. storms have
lost the instability as evident by the latest lightning trends,
and are now reduced to mainly rain showers. these rain showers
will persist overnight into saturday morning as an upper level
trough to the west will still provide widespread forcing for
ascent, but precipitation chances end from west to east on
saturday as cooler and drier air move across the region in the
wake of a cold front.

one change to the forecast was to add some sprinkles to the
forecast for areas along and inland from the lakeshore. forecast
soundings show stratus with a narrow area of instability, so
could have some of the clouds produce light precipitation.

sunday through friday:
seasonably cool temperatures will last through the weekend, with
highs on sunday struggling to reach 50. a weak shortwave will
move across the region, and bring small chances (20 percent) for
a few rain showers. on sunday night high pressure will build in,
leading to clear skies and light winds, with overnight lows
falling below freezing by monday morning. mondays highs will
rebound to near 50s.

looking ahead, high pressure will move eastward, and return flow
will bring spring-like temperatures back across the area. highs
on tuesday will be in the low 70s, mid 70s wednesday, and near
80 by thursday.

as for precipitation chances, there is a small chance (15 to 20
percent) a boundary could spark a few showers and thunderstorms
tuesday into wednesday. more widespread rain chances (50 to 60
percent) return late thursday into friday and a larger storm
system approaches from the west. the long range machine learning
guidance does indicate this system could produce severe weather
across the central conus, but that is too far out in the future
to have much confidence in when or where.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 619 am edt sat apr 18 2026

existing tafs were on track overall, requiring only minor
adjustments. rain and embedded thunderstorms continue to
gradually track east ahead of a cold front, which is currently
exiting illinois. wind becomes northwesterly behind this and
breezy. cannot rule out brief period of ifr ceilings on either
side of this front, but mvfr or fuel-alternate represents most
of the upstream observations. look for isolated showers near
ksbn off the lake late this afternoon as an upper-level vort max
rotates through. a return to vfr is anticipated as high
pressure settles in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...nws
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
090
fxus63 kdtx 181030
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
630 am edt sat apr 18 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a few thunderstorms expected this morning ahead of a
strong cold front, with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- much colder arrives tonight through monday. frost/freeze
conditions are likely during this period.

- temperatures warm back toward normal tuesday through the rest of
the week.

&&

.aviation...

rain showers will impact southeast michigan in advance of a cold
front that will push across the area between 14-17z. continued
moisture advection will support mvfr ceilings in rain this morning
with midlevel moisture persisting across the region until 19-21z
this afternoon. significant dry air advection is forecasted after
03z this evening leading to skc conditions tonight. southwest winds
this morning will veer to the west northwest after the cold front
this afternoon. wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will be possible.

dtw/d21 convection...the potential for thunderstorms is winding down
quickly this morning. the potential for rain showers and an isolated
rumble of thunder does remain possible through approximately 18z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 ft this early this morning through
much of this afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms through 18z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 318 am edt sat apr 18 2026

discussion...

pre-frontal line of showers and thunderstorms continues to fall
apart, with the past hour or so of observations showing warming
cloud tops, decreasing reflectivity cores, and almost a complete
loss in lightning activity. this line is at the lead edge of a
moisture plume that extends back to a strong cold front that will
sweep through later this morning. showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue through the morning until said front comes through,
some of which may produce gusty winds to 40 mph especially close to
the front. high temperatures in the 60s will be observed during the
morning hours, followed by quickly falling temperatures through the
afternoon. isentropic plan view shows the strongest column drying
after 00z, keeping cloud cover and pockets of drizzle around through
much of the afternoon. there is a sharp moisture gradient that then
clears out most of the column moisture late this evening.

mos guidance and forecast soundings both support clearing potential
overnight as a major pattern shift occurs with the arrival of the
thermal trough and height fall center. dewpoints in the upper 20s
and winds under 10 knots overnight support temperatures near
freezing with more rural areas having potential to fall below
freezing. for the daytime period, impressive surface destabilization
emerges late sunday morning. deep layer of 7.0-7.5 c/km lapse rates
up to ~15.0 kft agl generates a few hundred j/kg of mlcape, even as
high temperatures only peak in the upper 40s. westerly winds will
become breezy (30-35 mph) in this environment. the environment will
also be suitable for scattered showers (rain and snow) as wet bulb
zero heights are only around 1.0 kft agl. shower potential will be
greatest in the late morning-afternoon as a low amplitude shortwave
ripples overhead, adding enough moisture to engage the instability.
the convective component of this setup may produce graupel/small
hail and even a few rumbles of thunder.

coldest period of the week will be monday morning, with temperatures
falling into the 20s. this will be another highly efficient
radiative cooling setup, this time with h8 temperatures in the
negative teens making freeze headlines likely. despite below normal
temperatures, surface high pressure affords a dry day monday with
plenty of sunshine.

as the surface high departs, southerly flow on its western flank re-
establishes broad return flow throughout central conus into the
great lakes region. this supports a warm up tuesday onward, as highs
climb back toward/above normal into the upper 60s-low 70s for the
rest of the work week. warm advection appears to win out against a
washed out northern stream cold front that settles across lower mi
mid-week. h8 temperatures only drop briefly by a couple of degrees,
while disjointed moisture supports very low end pops attm. a more
unstable pattern then develops toward the end of the work week.

marine...

early morning southerly winds peak 25-30kts as remnant convection
ahead of an approaching cold front cross the central great lakes. a
couple gusts to or above 34kts are possible as storms move in and
weaken overlake thermal stability. front eventually crosses late
morning flipping flow to the west-northwest with gusts along and in
the immediate wake of the front likewise able to peak around 25-
30kts. while a modest weakening of wind (lowering 10kts or so)
occurs for the evening due a weakening gradient, the arrival of the
main core of the colder trailing airmass sunday reinvigorates
northwesterly winds supporting another period of gusts near 30kts.
small craft advisories remain in effect around the thumb through
this evening as a result of the stronger winds/higher wave action
with another period of advisories potentially warranted latter part
of sunday over the same waters. strong high pressure then slides
across the central great lakes for monday.

hydrology...

a cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms will track across the
region this morning ahead of a strong cold front. rainfall amounts
are expected to hold between a quarter to half inch. in light of
recent rains and saturated soils, any additional rainfall may lead to
some ponding or localized minor flooding. current projections
suggest any higher rainfall amounts will be too localized to worsen
ongoing river flooding across the saginaw basin.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mv
marine.......kdk
hydrology....mv/sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.