Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
361
fxus61 kcle 021810
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
210 pm edt tue jun 2 2026

.what has changed...
dry and seasonable weather conditions continue through friday
and no major changes to the forecast are needed at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions continue with temperatures gradually warming
through friday.

2) the weather pattern will change for the weekend, allowing for
showers and storm chances for friday night through sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure over the great lakes region will allow for
continued dry and seasonable weather. temperatures will be in
the 70s through wednesday and increasing into the 80s for
thursday and friday, as high pressure shifts east. with the
weekend system starting to enter the region on friday, clouds
will start to spread across the area, which allows for lower
confidence in the temperature forecast and will maintain
temperatures and heat index values less than 90 degrees.

key message 2...
a pattern change is expected for the weekend with an upper
trough entering from the northwest, breaking up the blocking
ridge and supporting a low pressure system and cold front
through the great lakes region. overall, the theme remains the
same with this system allowing for scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances through the weekend. given the timing of
the low pressure system and energy of the upper trough axis,
there may be better coverage on saturday afternoon and evening.
severe potential continues to be low, but conditional, as
convection would be over the area during peak heating as the
best forcing moves through the region. will need to see how much
moisture and jet support can get into the area to support any
organized severe weather threat.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period. north to
northeast flow is re-establishing itself this afternoon and some
gusts to 20 to 25 kts are expected through early evening. some
scattered diurnal cumulus is also developing and will fade
tonight. light and variable flow will be expected tonight into
wednesday with dry and generally clear conditions.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms friday
night through sunday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure north of lake erie will continue to allow for
northeast flow and some choppy 2 to 3 ft waves through this
evening, especially over the central basin between the lake erie
islands and fairport harbor. high pressure will sag south for
wednesday, allowing for light and variable flow on the lake and
pleasant marine conditions. high pressure moves east for
thursday and friday, opening up the lake to southwest, offshore
flow with 10 to 15 kts during the afternoon hours. low pressure
system and cold front arrives for the weekend with shower and
storm chances for the lake. southwest flow will continue on
saturday but shift to generally weak northwest flow for sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
338
fxus63 kiwx 022323
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
723 pm edt tue jun 2 2026

.key messages...

- pleasant early summer weather with temperatures gradually on
the rise through the remainder of the week.

- chances for showers and thunderstorms (40-70%) friday night
into saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 138 pm edt tue jun 2 2026

a sprawling low level anticyclone, currently centered over the
western/northern great lakes at ~1030 mb, will sink slowly south to
overhead by wednesday, and off to the southeast by thursday and
friday. this will allow our stretch of pleasant weather to persist
through at least friday morning. temperatures will gradually climb,
especially by thursday and friday when increasing southwesterly flow
on the backside of the aforementioned high pressure system will
advect in warmer air. the more dramatic increase in column moisture
appears delayed until later friday and saturday. this incoming high
theta-e air in conjunction with several mid level disturbances
traversing the area in flattened quasi-zonal flow aloft could yield
periodic scattered showers and storms, particularly on saturday with
heavier downpours possible. the bulk of available model guidance
suggests a return to drier wx sunday into early next week in wake of
saturday`s wave, though did retain nbm`s low chance pops given
limited ensemble support for a frontal boundary to linger in the
vicinity.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 722 pm edt tue jun 2 2026

surface high pressure passing through allows dry weather and for vfr
conditions as well as light winds that obtain more of a southerly
component by end of day wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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692
fxus63 kdtx 022318
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
718 pm edt tue jun 2 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warm through mid week.

- the next chance of rain develops friday and continues through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr under patchy thin cirrus with light wind is the prevailing
condition tonight and wednesday morning. surface high pressure
expands even more over lower mi while the mid level ridge holds over
the midwest to western great lakes. this allows the less common
setup of cirrus leaking in from the east as the only notable weather
to mention. a few high based cumulus and/or altocu develop wednesday
afternoon while light and variable wind gains a southerly component
with some lake breeze modification late in the day.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms tonight through wednesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 334 pm edt tue jun 2 2026

discussion...

a seasonably strong 1020 mb surface high will remain anchored over
the great lakes today and tomorrow, supporting continued subsidence,
light winds, and a dry/stable column. unidirectional northeast flow
through the low-levels did produce strong 0-3km lapse rates which
have aided in sparse cu development across the irish hills and metro
region. the few-sct cloud deck will erode around sunset, leading to
clear skies overnight with lows right around 50 degrees. the overall
longwave omega block pattern will start to break down tomorrow as
the meandering closed low system across the rockies releases
eastward ahead of a deepening pacific nw trough. this will fold the
ridge axis across the great lakes tomorrow and will greatly reduce
amplification of the wave. this will mute the influence of northeast
flow tomorrow and will allow temperatures to push into the 80s under
mostly sunny conditions, outside of some translucent cirrus that
will stream in through the day. winds back to the southwest on
thursday which fold the warmer temperatures in the plains into the
great lakes, pushing highs in the mid to upper 80s.

the next likely chance for rain and some thunderstorms will enter
friday into saturday once the pacific nw wave extends into the
midwest, eventually pushing the trough into michigan. confidence
turns lower surrounding pop chances into early next week pending the
arrival and placement of a low pressure system originating from
texas. this is projected to stall out south of michigan as high
pressure drops from canada into michigan.

marine...

high pressure sits atop the great lakes region throughout today into
wednesday. as the high pressure moves overhead, light winds from the
northeast become variable. by thursday, winds out of the southwest
are expected as the high moves into the mid-atlantic. the next
chance of rain and thunderstorms are greatest friday night into
saturday as a cold front approaches the area, which is expected to
bring breezy conditions as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...am
marine.......mv/to


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.