Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
640 am edt fri aug 21 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
added a low chance for showers/thunder in parts of northwest oh
late this afternoon and evening. the overall forecast for the
active period saturday into sunday remains similar, though did
expand shower chances outside of the "snowbelt" on sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly dry weather is expected through early saturday. a few
showers or storms are possible across parts of northwest and
north central ohio late this afternoon into tonight.

2) scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move across the area saturday afternoon and evening. there is a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe thunderstorms, with
damaging winds and hail the main risks. locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

3) below average temperatures arrive for sunday and monday, with
periodic lake-enhanced rain showers east-southeast of lake erie.
a few isolated showers will remain possible across the rest of the
area on sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface high pressure begins exiting to the east-northeast
through the day today. a plume of higher theta-e air is expected
to build across western and central oh by this afternoon and
evening, allowing modest but uncapped instability to develop
through the afternoon as heating occurs. a shortwave is diving
out of the upper midwest early this morning and will swing
across the area this afternoon and evening with an accompanying
surface trough. some hi-res models are depicting isolated to
widely scattered convection in response. overall, there`s enough
there to add a 20- 30% type chance for showers/thunder across
parts of northwest and north central oh after 5 pm, with some
activity potentially lingering through the evening and well into
the night amid weak warm air advection. modest forcing/
instability along with weak shear precludes a severe threat.
the rest of the area is favored to remain dry through early
saturday. highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s today,
with lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

key message 2...
active weather is expected saturday afternoon and evening as a
seasonably deep trough digs into the great lakes, allowing low
pressure to gradually deepen as it tracks from michigan into
southern ontario and drags a strong cold front through the area.

there`s decent agreement that a pre-frontal trough will push
east across the area saturday afternoon, with the strong cold
front itself pushing into northwest oh late in the afternoon and
pushing southeast across and then out of the area through the
evening. some large scale ascent begins spreading in ahead of
the digging trough by midday/early afternoon, with the greatest
support during the late afternoon and early evening as a vort
max rounds the base of the digging trough and rotates into
northern ohio. it is likely that showers and storms will begin
developing around midday or early afternoon along both the cold
front and pre-frontal trough, along with perhaps along a lake
breeze near the lakeshore from cleveland points northeast.
activity should peak in coverage and intensity during the late
afternoon and early evening hours before exiting to the
southeast with the front and transitioning to lake-enhanced
showers saturday night. overall, much of the area should see a
shower or storm saturday afternoon or evening with two rounds
possible across parts of the area in quick succession.

while mid-level lapse rates will remain weak at 6.0c/km or
less, some heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (pwats
increasing to ~1.5" ahead of the cold front) should yield
moderate instability (1000-2000 j/kg of mlcape) saturday
afternoon. along with 20-30 knots of effective deep-layer shear
and increasing forcing, this is an environment that is on the
lower end of what can support organized convection with a severe
weather threat. activity along the pre-frontal trough becoming
more widespread earlier in the afternoon could sap some of the
thermodynamics from the atmosphere ahead of the cold front and
greater forcing that arrive during the late afternoon and early
evening. given the lower-end environment and potential for pre-
frontal convection to muddy the picture, the current spc day 2
outlook maintains a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather across the entire area on saturday. the primary threats
would be marginally severe wind gusts or hail with a few
stronger storms. a bit more heating and/or widespread convection
holding off until later in the afternoon when the cold front
and greater forcing arrive would be items that could increase
the severe threat a bit from the current outlook.

storm motion will be from the west-southeast saturday afternoon
and evening, fairly parallel to the advancing cold front. the
thermodynamics don`t look overwhelmingly conducive for efficient
rain rates, but given the potential for some spots to see two
rounds of storms and/or a bit of training we`ll need to monitor
for locally heavier rain saturday afternoon/evening. area-
average qpf of generally 0.25-0.75" is expected with this
system, but locally up to 2-3" amounts are feasible if there`s
any training or repeated rounds given the environment.

highs on saturday will generally be in the upper 70s or lower
80s, though it will briefly feel more muggy as dew points climb
into the mid-upper 60s for a few hours ahead of the cold front.

key message 3...
as the calendar creeps towards september and a 2-3 standard
deviation 500mb trough digs over the great lakes, the airmass
behind saturday evening`s cold front will feel like an early
taste of fall. in fact, over lake erie water temperatures that
average slightly warmer than 25c at the moment, 850mb temps
tumbling to 7-10c and with 500mb temperatures of -17 to -20c
sunday into monday will support lake-enhanced rain showers as
moist cyclonic flow aligns out of the west-northwest behind
departing low pressure. a bit of thunder will remain possible
with more robust activity. the coverage/intensity of any lake-
enhanced showers will be maximized with any trough passages and
lull between troughs. there is some agreement in a trough
passage in the vicinity of sunday morning. confidence lowers
beyond that, though there are hints that another trough or two
may cross between sunday evening and early monday. lake-enhanced
showers should gradually decrease and begin shifting east-
northeast up the lake shore late sunday night and monday as low
pressure gradually exits and as ridging builds in, though there
remains some disagreement over how quickly that happens.

as is traditionally the case with west-northwest flow, lake-
enhanced rain will be most frequent and intense from the
cleveland metro area points east-northeast across the higher
terrain of the "snowbelt" of northeast oh and northwest pa. some
activity off the lake will be possible as far west as sandusky
at times, especially through sunday when moisture is deepest.
outside of the lake-enhanced showers it will be mainly dry,
though the colder air aloft and any trough passages may
encourage a few hit/miss showers across the entire area, mainly
through sunday evening. building ridging should allow areas
outside of lake-enhanced showers to dry out sunday night and
monday.

highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s sunday and
monday, coolest across northeast oh and northwest pa. overnight
lows will dip into the 50s for much of the area, with some 40s
monday night if we see sufficiently clear/calm conditions.

high pressure should bring at least a couple days of quieter
weather once it completely builds in early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
mainly vfr conditions and fair weather skies are expected for
this taf update. winds will be light from the east or southeast 5
to 8 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms on
saturday. non-vfr conditions may continue saturday night into
sunday in lake enhanced showers and storms across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions will nice today on lake erie with a
light northeast to easterly winds 5 to 10 knots and waves of 1
to 2 feet. a low pressure system and cold front will approach
the eastern great lakes on saturday. winds will become southerly
to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots saturday and waves 1 to 3 feet.
behind the cold frontal passage, northwest winds will increase
15 to 20 knots late saturday night into sunday and waves will
increase 2 to 4 feet. a small craft advisory may be needed for
saturday night through sunday. there may be some rip current
potential as well for the later half of the weekend and some
beach hazard statements may also be needed. there will also be
the potential for some waterspouts on sunday with colder air
aloft moving over the warmer lake water. high pressure will
build in on monday and tuesday. winds on monday will be 5 to 15
knots from the west with waves 1 to 3 feet. calmer wind and
waves are expected by tuesday underneath the high pressure
system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 am edt fri aug 21 2026

.key messages...

- periodic showers and storms are expected today through
saturday. an isolated strong storm capable of gusty winds and
brief heavy rain is possible west of us-31 this evening and
east of i-69 saturday afternoon.

- it will be breezy this weekend with gusts up to 30 mph and
highs only in the mid/upper 70s. these gusty winds will lead
to dangerous swimming conditions on lake michigan beaches.

- dry and tranquil weather is anticipated monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 am edt fri aug 21 2026

piecemeal arrival of seasonably deep mid/upper low this weekend will
lead to several periods of scattered showers/storms and some breezy
conditions. a few subtle vorticity shreds are expected to pass
through the area this afternoon and tonight on the leading edge of
this upper low. forcing for vertical ascent is incredibly weak this
afternoon but modest instability is expected given surface dewpoints
still in the solid mid 60s to perhaps upper 60s. this will likely
support some widely scattered showers during the afternoon across
our central and eastern zones (very similar to yesterday) before the
more notable shortwave/convective complex enters our nw cwa this
evening. all of the necessary parameters for deep/organized
convection are marginal so not expecting much impacts but do think
it`s worth carrying a 20 pop. (most locations will likely remain
dry.) the evening wave features a little better mid/upper level
support in the left exit region of approaching jet streak. however,
it will likely arrive closer to sunset and thus losing the modest
(highly diurnally-driven) instability. shear values are also on the
marginal side (around 20 kts) so while i can`t entirely rule out a
strong storm in our far western zones, the chances appear low.

will likely have some showers continue through the overnight and
into sat morning as the primary cold front passes. the main concern
for sat will be in our far eastern zones during the afternoon. here,
a favorable alignment of synoptic forcing along the cold front, some
healthy diurnal instability (driven by a moist boundary layer and
decent midlevel lapse rates), and perhaps marginally-sufficient
shear could lead to our best severe weather chances. the problem is
the surface front exits our cwa awfully early and the best midlevel
cva trails well behind this surface front. best severe chances may
end up just e/se of our cwa but it will be close. some gusty winds
expected behind this front sat afternoon with a few gusts up to 30
mph possible given a tight gradient and efficient postfrontal
mixing. deep, moist cyclonic flow then settles into the area sat
night into sun. nbm initialization came in dry but wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few isolated showers during these two periods.
similarly breezy sun afternoon in what will certainly feel like the
first taste of fall given dewpoints crashing to near 50f and highs
only in the mid 70s.

anticyclonic low/midlevel flow then settles into the region for mon
and tue yielding what should be tranquil weather days. will have to
keep an eye on sharp moisture gradient just to our sw but for now it
seems to remain safely far enough from our cwa borders. the next
chance of rain is associated with another decent shortwave entering
the great lakes late wed and sending another cold front through the
area.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 630 am edt fri aug 21 2026

patchy fog/stratus remain possible over the next 2 hours but
vfr is expected after 12z and continuing through most of the
period. isolated afternoon showers are possible around kfwa
thanks to warm/humid airmass but coverage is too low to mention
in the taf. better chance for a few storms at ksbn late tonight
as a cold front approaches the area but late arrival and overall
weak forcing leads to low confidence in exact timing and
coverage. plan to introduce a prob30 05-10z but hold with that
for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
721 am edt fri aug 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers increase coverage tonight with a chance of thunderstorms.

- showers become numerous to widespread saturday as a cold front
moves through the region. scattered thunderstorms present a marginal
risk of severe intensity saturday afternoon.

- breezy and cooler conditions arrive sunday with a lingering chance
for showers.

- dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures start off the
week on monday.

&&

.aviation...

the western periphery of surface high pressure will drift eastward
today as upper level troughing steadily strengthens over the great
lakes region. vfr conditions are anticipated through this afternoon
and evening. warm air and moisture advection will eventually center
over the forecast area this afternoon leading to increasing vfr
ceilings. approaching low pressure circulation will then bring a
chance of a shower or thunderstorm between 08-12z tonight.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorm is anticipated this forecast
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 407 am edt fri aug 21 2026

discussion...

today starts out with high pressure centered to our east but still
in control of conditions across se mi before it departs into the new
england states this afternoon. the very beginning of weak southerly
flow in the lower to mid levels shows signs of moisture transport in
patchy mid level clouds under cirrus streamers during the morning.
mid and high clouds then increase in the afternoon, mainly toward
the tri cities and west of i-75, as moisture transport increases
modestly ahead of midwest low pressure. guidance high temperatures
in the lower 80s are reachable given adequate sunshine at least
through early afternoon.

the leading low amplitude 500 mb trough could touch off a stray
shower late in the day, however potential becomes better organized
this evening as the trough combines with deeper and slightly
stronger sw flow within the warm sector moisture axis. shower
coverage is scattered to briefly numerous during the late night into
saturday morning as the center of low pressure reaches the straits
while pulling the cold front into lower mi. frontal timing remains
favorable for passage through se mi during saturday afternoon peak
heating with a boost of forcing from the primary mid level short
wave. however even then, href mean surface based cape struggles to
exceed 1500 j/kg at least partially due to high temperatures that
also strain to reach 80 across the region. this instability profile
combines with about 25 knots of westerly bulk shear for a standard
multicell convective mode that carries a marginal risk of
approaching severe intensity. numerous to widespread coverage of
showers focusing along the cold front has greater confidence until
the system exits eastward early saturday evening.

nw wind gusting around 25 mph post front reinforces cooler air
across the region sunday. a partly sunny/mostly cloudy sky with a
stray shower are expected for much of the day as the low level
thermal trough digs into the central great lakes. cold advection
brings 850 mb temps down into the single digits by sunday night
which makes low temperatures in the upper 40s reachable outside of
the larger metro areas by sunrise monday.

marine...

light easterly flow this morning gradually backs to the south-
southwest through the day as high pressure peels off into new
england. meanwhile, low pressure organizes upstream with shower and
thunderstorm chances beginning as early as this evening near the
mackinac straits. rain chances then spread across the rest of the
marine zones overnight-saturday. periods of dry weather mix with
multiple rounds of rain activity throughout the day before clearing
out saturday night as a cold front sweeps across the region. the
front quickly shifts winds from the south to the northwest, which
will pair with cold advection to produce gusty winds over lake huron
sunday and monday. strongest gusts around 30 knots are expected
sunday afternoon-evening, but will hold around 25 knots through
monday as well. elevated waves are also expected, likely to exceed
small craft advisory thresholds from at least outer bay to harbor
beach. a quieter pattern arrives tuesday, but is quickly followed by
the next system mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.