Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
859
fxus61 kcle 120526
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1226 am est fri dec 12 2025

.synopsis...
weak high pressure will briefly build into the ohio valley
tonight before a fast moving clipper system dives through the
ohio valley friday. another clipper system and arctic cold front
will move through the region saturday, with a trough lingering
across the great lakes sunday. high pressure will build in for
monday and tuesday.

&&

.near term /through today/...
lake-effect snow showers continue across northern ohio and nw pa
this afternoon in the broad cold, cyclonic flow. regional radar
loops show multiple bands across both the inland primary and
secondary snowbelts with upstream connections to lakes superior
and michigan, as well as a lake huron connection into the pa/ny
border. the bands are only loosely organized since pop up snow
showers are occurring in most areas between these bands due to
the very cold air aloft (-13 c at 850 mb and -35 c at 500 mb).
this will keep snow amounts in check the rest of the afternoon
and evening, but abundant moisture and lift into the dgz as
well as lake induced equilibrium levels of 8-10 thousand feet
will support bursts of moderate to briefly heavy snowfall.

moving into tonight, a mid-level jet max and associated weak
surface low will drop out of the upper midwest. this weak
clipper will dive into the ohio valley friday morning, and as it
passes by to the south, it will disrupt the boundary layer flow
across the lake and introduce shear, which will gradually weaken
the lingering lake-effect snow. however, rap and nam bufkit
forecast soundings continue to show favorable lift and moisture
through the dgz and inversion levels remaining elevated most of
the night. href guidance also suggests a period of low-level
convergence near cuyahoga county e/se into geauga, portage, and
trumbull as well as a persistent lake huron connection swinging
into erie and crawford pa counties at times. this should all cause
lake-effect snow showers to stubbornly continue most of the
night, even in a weakening form. adjusted additional snowfall
amounts to 1 to 3 inches across eastern cuyahoga, geauga,
northern portage, and trumbull counties, with 2 to 4 inches
across crawford county pa (highest ne), and 2 to 5 inches
across erie county pa (highest s and e). additional snowfall
through tonight will be 1 inch or less around these areas. with
this being said, extended the advisory for geauga and southern
ashtabula counties to 09z (4 am) friday to match the end times
of the headlines in erie and crawford counties. inversion levels
lowering to around 5 thousand feet after 10z friday will finally
shut down lingering snow showers and flurries by mid morning.

as touched on above, the weak clipper low will pass south of the
region friday morning and afternoon, so limited pops to slight
chance along and south of u.s. 30, with only 0.1 inch or less
of snow accumulation. this will set up briefly dry conditions
areawide friday evening into the first half of friday night
before a strong mid/upper trough and associated h5 closed low
dropping into the northern great lakes drags an arctic cold
front toward the region. strong frontogenetic forcing from a
135-145 knot h3 jet streak will produce a band of snow showers
along the arctic front, so have chance pops gradually moving
into northern ohio late friday night. additionally, a well-
aligned wsw boundary layer flow will lead to a strong lake-
effect band developing over lake erie, and this band could push
onshore in far ne ohio and nw pa toward sunrise saturday, so
have likely to categorical pops there by saturday morning.

&&

.short term /tonight through sunday night/...
the arctic front discussed above will progress through the
region saturday morning, with the deep mid/upper trough and
closed low digging southward through the great lakes through the
day. details in terms of snowfall amounts and exact timing
remain uncertain, but the combination of a burst of snow with
the front fusing with a lake-effect band pushing inland will
likely produce a short window of moderate to heavy snowfall.
would not be surprised if a quick 1-2 inches of snow accumulates
saturday morning in much of ne ohio and nw pa as the band pushes
inland. w to wnw flow and strong cold air advection will then
set up for the rest of the day, so impactful lake-effect snow
could continue east of cleveland through nw pa at times saturday
afternoon and evening after a brief lull. if this were not
enough, another mid-level shortwave will rotate through the
base of the digging trough saturday afternoon and evening
supporting another fast moving clipper low. this will bring some
areawide snow accumulation saturday afternoon and evening
outside of the lake-effect. nbm probabilistic snowfall of 3
inches or greater has been trending the highest probabilities
toward central ohio, so have some 1 to 2 inch snowfall amounts
along and south of u.s. 30 as a starting point saturday
afternoon and evening, with generally 1 inch or less farther
north. regardless of exact amounts, it will snow in all areas in
some capacity along with gusty winds of 20-25 knots, so some
hazardous travel is likely saturday afternoon and evening
areawide.

behind the clipper, boundary layer flow will turn nnw for
saturday night and sunday behind a secondary front, with 850 mb
temps crashing to -20 c. this will push ongoing lake-effect snow
east of cleveland farther west into the secondary snowbelt, with
multi-banded lake-effect impacting both the inland primary and
secondary snowbelts saturday night through sunday night. the
arctic airmass looks very dry, so this may limit the intensity
of bands saturday night through sunday night, but the
combination of the snow saturday and lingering lake-effect
through sunday night will likely necessitate headlines this
weekend. this will continue to be monitored, as several inches
of snow could accumulate in the primary and secondary snowbelts
this weekend.

finally, this will be the coldest airmass of the young winter
season, with highs in the low/upper 20s saturday falling into
the mid teens/low 20s sunday. lows saturday night and sunday
night will fall into the single digits to low teens, with wind
chill values below -5 f in some areas saturday night and sunday
morning and below 0 f sunday night.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
lingering lake-effect snow showers will continue in ne ohio and
nw pa monday in continued cyclonic flow as the deep eastern
conus trough gradually lifts out, but a large area of surface
high pressure sliding through the ohio valley monday night and
tuesday will shut down the activity. this high will set up
offshore of the east coast for mid and late week, and this
combined with the mid/upper flow becoming quasi-zonal across the
country will allow the arctic air to retreat as milder pacific-
based air takes over. the next storm system approaching the
great lakes region by late wednesday and thursday will bring
rain as the precip type as temperatures warm.

highs in the low/mid 20s monday will warm into the upper 20s to
low 30s tuesday, with upper 30s to low 40s wednesday and low to
mid 40s thursday.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
remaining lake effect snow showers across northeast ohio will
continue to weaken in intensity overnight. lingering snow is
mainly focused towards yng but cak is also experiencing a little
snow at the start of the period. expecting any additional snow
at cle to be flurries or very light. eri is seeing a break in
snow between bands and any additional snow overnight will be
hard to time. ceilings are mainly vfr except mvfr where light
snow is falling. there is some dry air starting to sneak in and
could see some breaks in the clouds at mfd/cak but confidence is
low in that. winds are 10 knots or less at all sites and will
tend to back to southwesterly or southerly by friday morning.

outlook...non-vfr is likely in periods of snow as a series of
systems cross the area through the weekend with the best chance
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories continue near and east of vermilion, though
conditions on lake erie are expected to gradually improve through
tonight as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds in.

southwest winds develop friday night, with peak wind speeds of
around 25-30 knots expected saturday morning with and
immediately following the passage of a cold front. waves of 5-9
feet are likely east of the islands through the day saturday.
winds of 15 to 25 knots generally becomes northwest by saturday
evening and continue through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
ohz013-014.
pa...winter weather advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
paz003.
winter storm warning until 4 am est early this morning for
paz002.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...garuckas
near term...garuckas
short term...garuckas
long term...garuckas
aviation...10
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
689
fxus63 kiwx 120533
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1233 am est fri dec 12 2025

.key messages...

- overnight, there is a slight chance (20%) of snow across far
southern portions of the forecast area, including white and
cass counties in indiana.

- periods of light system snow and lake effect snow friday
night through sunday night.

- very cold temperatures are expected this weekend. there is at
least a 50 percent probability of wind chills at or below -20
degrees f on sunday morning over much of the area.

- warmer weather returns next week.

&&

.update...
issued at 903 pm est thu dec 11 2025

have updated the forecast this evening to depict less than 1/2 inch
of snow across far southern counties and have limited pops to only a
slight chance (20%).

clipper system moving from central il through south-central in this
evening is on track to overall miss our forecast area. water vapor
imagery depicts a steady northwest to southeast track while high
resolution guidance shows the best upper-level forcing confined to
southern il and eastern mo. local dew point depressions as great as
nine degrees beneath weak mosaic radar returns bolster confidence
that snowfall will pass to our south. there is a small area of
expanding radar returns across the greater davenport, ia, area where
dew point depressions are much smaller. however, given thick cloud
cover, a quick drop in our temperature profiles into the teens this
early in the night is not expected, nor is there enough forcing to
saturate or wet-bulb the column. time-height cross sections depict a
deep, mid-level dry layer as well. all of these ingredients (or lack
thereof) necessitated this forecast update. &&

.discussion...
issued at 220 pm est thu dec 11 2025

no major changes to the inherited forecast this afternoon. a few
light snow showers persist across the cwa w/ some local enhancements
noted in and around the fort wayne metro area likely courtesy of
added moisture/condensation nuclei induced by steam from nearby
industrial facilities. in general, most activity has been
limited to flurries or a quick burst of light to moderate snow
with no notable impacts reported. still anticipating the quick
passage of another clipper system tonight, with frontogenetic
forcing and isentropic ascent very briefly allowing snow to
spread into our far southwestern zones. trends in high-res
models have continued to signal a southward shift in the band of
accumulating snowfall w/ href members suggesting around a
60-70% probability of at least one half inch of snow. the hrrr
has consistently trended south over the past several runs w/ the
18z iteration keeping any notable accumulation entirely south
of the cwa. did consider an sps for a quick 1-2 inch snowfall,
but given the forecast trends decided to hold off on this
messaging for now.

quiet weather on friday will give way to a more active weekend, but
winter impacts should still be relatively marginal for most. first
short wave disturbance passes friday night into saturday morning
with lake enhanced snow developing in westerly flow. some snow
showers may spread into the us-6 corridor as well, but the best
chance for any accumulation would likely be found across
berrien/cass counties in mi. even so, current ensemble suites
suggest likely accumulations in the 1-3 inch range with lesser
chances of advisory level amounts. the second and more vigorous
short wave arrives saturday night w/ the best forcing focused mainly
south of us-30. the parade of clipper systems naturally results in a
low predictability storm track with each subsequent wave being
influenced by the previous, so considerable uncertainty still
exists with regard to the overall degree of winter travel
impacts from this system. nonetheless, some additional
accumulation is probable. one thing is for certain, much colder
air will filter in behind this system. 75th percentile gefs h85
temperatures plunge to -20 deg c by 12z sunday, strongly
suggesting potential for temperatures in the single digits (both
above and below zero) with wind chills possibly approaching
cold weather advisory criteria. will need to monitor for a
potential lake response saturday night into sunday.

a pattern shift is still expected beyond monday of next week w/
highs climbing above freezing and periods of rain expected through
mid-week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1233 am est fri dec 12 2025

clipper system currently passing safely south of the terminals
with just a 3kft stratus deck to contend with through the early
morning. brief scattering/lifting of the stratus deck is
anticipated during the day before another shortwave arrives
friday night. this wave will bring more mvfr stratus and
perhaps some light snow for ksbn being closer to lake mi and the
better forcing. much lower confidence in snow at kfwa and will
hold dry there for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...brown
discussion...hammer
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
344
fxus63 kdtx 120508
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1208 am est fri dec 12 2025

.key messages...

- bitter cold temperatures for the weekend into monday.

- the coldest period looks to be saturday night and sunday morning
when wind chill readings dropping to 5 to 15 degrees below zero.

- a couple opportunities to get a little light snow, particularly
this evening/tonight and on monday.

- a dramatic warmup is then forecasted tuesday-thursday next week,
as temps likely push past 40 degrees, setting us up for potential
rain.

&&

.aviation...

trapped lake moisture continues to support low clouds across the
terminal corridor early tonight with a wider coverage of mvfr
ceilings holding southwest. some uncertainty to cloud trends during
the early morning hours, but soundings suggest predominately vfr will
hold. though, there does remains a chance for occasional mvfr
ceilings across the area. observational trends are showing a nw to se
clearing line stretching across the saginaw valley and thumb. this
may bring a period of lower cloud coverage to mbs with uncertainty
how far south this reaches before high cloud coverage eventually
regains traction. have kept greater coverage from fnt south for now.
winds remain light through the night and variable at times. a
southwest wind develops this afternoon with increasing chances for
light snow showers after 00z this evening.

for dtw...mainly vfr ceilings with brief mvfr drops possible.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through the morning hours.
low to medium this afternoon.


&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 pm est thu dec 11 2025

discussion...

an overall backing of the low level flow toward the west and a
lowering of the inversion will allow a decrease in the coverage of
snow showers and flurries this evening. there is likely to be good
deal of strato cu through the night trapped under the low level
inversion. this should hold min temps largely in the teens despite
the resident cold airmass. the potential for a few breaks in the
saginaw valley/thumb will warrant a little colder temps in this
region. a low amplitude short wave is still forecast to traverse the
ohio valley tonight and friday, with the associated snowfall well
south of the forecast area. broad mid level subsidence through both
confluence and weak negative vorticity advection will maintain a dry
forecast across se mi friday. even with some potential breaks in
strato cu field, cold air locked in place will hold highs in the
mid/upper 20s.

an approaching upper low from the northwest will spread mid level
height falls across lower mi friday evening. a narrow axis of mid
level moisture in advance of the upper low will support a brief
period of respectable lake effect off lake michigan. a backing of
the low level flow from southwest to west friday evening will drive
some of the lake effect into se mi, enhanced by the period of large
scale ascent and deep layer moisture. the duration of light snow or
any potential heavier bursts of snow showers which release off lake
michigan will be brief, which will keep total snow accumulations
minimal. model blended solutions suggest snowfall amounts of a
dusting to half inch. even the 90th percentile has total accums of
just an inch. this lends to support to high probabilities for snow,
with low qpf/snow accum potential.

as the upper low tracks across the northern lakes saturday/saturday
night, forecast amplification within the larger scale trough will
drive an early season blast of extremely cold arctic air into the
region. 850mb temps are forecast to plunge toward -20c saturday
afternoon, with the extreme cold holding over the region into
monday. daytime highs will largely be in the teens to near 20 with
nighttime lows in the single digits. the cold air advection on
saturday and the lake aggregate troughing on sunday will maintain
some elevated wind speeds through the weekend, with gusts over 25 mph
at times. this will result in some sub zero wind chill readings,
especially during the morning hours. while the moisture flux off the
lakes will support some lake effect, limited inversion heights and
the very dry and cold arctic airmass suggest that mainly some
flurries may make their way into se mi this weekend. a pattern shift
next week continues to offer high probabilities for a warming trend
wednesday into thursday, with highs possibly into the 40s.

marine...

elongated area of high pressure is over the region today, wedged in
between a strong low over the far northeast conus and second area of
low pressure developing over the western plains. the resultant
northwesterly gradient will remain elevated due to cold air
filtering into the area but below gale force with the lack of
stronger gradient support. small craft advisories continue through
this evening to account for elevated wave heights from the
persistent northwesterly flow. winds will remain lower into friday
before the next clipper tracks through ontario friday night into
saturday, pulling an arctic front through the region friday night.
this cold airmass will again bring increased winds with sporadic
gusts to gales possible over lake huron during the weekend as 850 mb
temps plummet to -20 c, supporting snow squalls and freezing spray
as well. another round of small craft advisories seem likely at a
minimum through the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.