Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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656
fxus61 kcle 022242
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
542 pm est mon nov 2 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) warming trend tuesday and wednesday.

2) showers expected ahead of and with a cold front wednesday into
wednesday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
expansive high pressure will drift off the mid atlantic coastal
region providing the southern great lakes with deep southerly flow
in the next couple of days. with 850mb temperatures climbing into
the lower teens with warm air advection, expecting high temperatures
10-20 degrees above normal for tuesday and wednesday, possibly
pushing record highs in places tuesday. wednesday should lag a bit
with the potential introduction of showers into the region ahead of
the cold front marching in from the west.

key message 2...
deep upper low will push from the southern high plains towards the
upper mississippi valley, driving a pacific cold front west to east
into the cwa. line of showers moves into the western zones after 15z
wednesday. looking at the low level f-gen for this system, it
appears the system may turn weakly frontolytic as it moves through
the cwa wednesday, with the line possibly becoming more scattered as
it does so. this would correlate with the occluding nature of the
surface and upper level low pressure systems, but still expect
precipitation for all zones of the cwa and will need to watch for
the development of surface waves along the cold front. temperatures
back down towards normal for the end of the week and into the
weekend with continued upper level troughing over the cwa and off
and on rain chances during this time as well.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
overall vfr to mvfr ceilings are expected for this taf period.
there is one exception at mfd this evening for ifr ceilings
trough 03z before improving to mvfr overnight. most of north
central and northwest ohio will have mvfr ceilings overnight
improving to vfr ceilings by early tuesday morning. taf sites
across neoh and nwpa are seeing vfr ceilings. vfr ceilings are
expected for all taf sites midday tuesday through the end of the
time period. winds will be southerly 5 to 10 knots overnight.
southerly winds will increase 10 to 14 knots on tuesday with
gusts up to 22 knots during the afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
offshore winds 10-20kts through early wednesday ahead of a cold
front will mean wave heights increase progressively away from shore.
in general, 2ft or less for the nearshore zones, and 2-4ft in the
open water zones should be expected during this time. a cold front
late wednesday/wednesday night turns winds more southwesterly 10-
20kts through thursday, with wave heights in the nearshore zones
east of cleveland now in the 1-3ft range while wave height forecast
s for the other zones remains the same.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...77
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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865
fxus63 kiwx 022301
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
601 pm est mon nov 2 2026

.key messages...

- some patchy drizzle or light rain showers/sprinkles will likely
continue at times through this evening.

- much better chances for rain (80-100%) arrive late tuesday
night into early wednesday. rainfall amounts are generally
expected to be one quarter of an inch or less.

- highs will be well into the 70s on tuesday with breezy
conditions but otherwise highs remain around 60 the rest of
the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 pm est mon nov 2 2026

broad advective forcing continues across the region with water vapor
imagery and near term hi-res guidance initializations depicting
next weak short wave across the mid ms valley. this should
allow for a few more waves of drizzle and possibly a few light
rain showers this evening but most locations will be dry or
experience just trace amounts. as mentioned in previous
discussion, guidance has struggled today with temps with a
maintenance in blended guidance of a warm bias. extensive low
clouds and occasional very light drizzle have resulted in
temperatures hovering from the 55 to 60 degree range for most
locations. temperatures are expected to show little movement
through the night tonight as warm advection offsets most of
diurnal tendencies. overnight, the aforementioned lead short
wave should shift east of the area allowing for mid/upper level
height rises to build back in from the west.

the attention for tuesday will be on evolution of large scale
upper trough, and in particular the upper height minimum across
the southern plains that will lift north as an upper jet streak
progresses through the downstream portion of this trough.
moisture transport will steadily increase in advance of this
trough tonight into tuesday, but with better mid/upper dynamics
displaced well west/southwest, will maintain a dry forecast
through the day. windy and warm conditions will be the main
story on tuesday as near term buffer soundings suggest some
potential of tapping into 30 to 35 knot top of boundary layer
flow across northwest/portions of north central indiana during
the afternoon hours. thickening mid cloud and moistening low/mid
levels could result in mixing heights not being maximized
however. based on magnitude of low level thermals alone, highs
should approach record levels in the middle 70s for tuesday.

categorical pops have been maintained for tuesday night into
wednesday am due to the combination of initial llj forcing
followed by passage of cold front. while cannot completely rule
out an isolated storm with some very weak elevated instability
tuesday night, any instability of note will likely be confined
well south across the lower ms valley. with stronger upper
dynamics expected to bypass the area to the southwest/south,
frontal convergence fields are a bit weaker across the local
area with a camp of guidance still suggesting more limited
rainfall amounts. given progressive nature of llj axis and low
level baroclinic zone, this does not look to be a significant
hydro event.

dry slot punches into the area from southwest to northeast on
wednesday, withs some additional rain showers possible
thursday night through friday as better moisture profiles wrap
around the slowly eastward meandering upper low. some lake
enhancement is expected with the rain showers, but instability
depths are quite limited without any push of dramatically colder
mid level air.

the large scale pattern will favor additional influence from an
eastern pacific jet streak in closing off another system across
central conus for the weekend but confidence in timing these
additional rain chances is low. given expected weak
baroclinicity in this pattern and preference to systems more
vertically stacked in nature, no significant rainfall events
are anticipated through the next 7 days. temperatures should
trend near normal by this weekend into early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 600 pm est mon nov 2 2026

low level southerly flow ramps up tonight into tuesday in advance of
an approaching upper level trough and cold front. low mvfr, possibly
brief ifr, cigs should improve into low vfr later tonight into
tuesday from se to nw. marginal llws otherwise overnight gives way
to breezy southerly sfc gusts up to near 25 knots mid morning into
tuesday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 am tuesday to 7 am est wednesday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
331 pm est mon nov 2 2026

.key messages...

- mild tuesday with near record high temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s.

- breezy tuesday with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

- mild conditions continue wednesday with increasing potential for
light rain.

&&

.discussion...

a large upper level trough will move into the plains today and will
be the focus of the weather locally for the next several days. it
slows it`s eastward progress today as additional shortwave energy
both from the southern stream and diving southward down the backside
of the trough helps try to close off the base of the trough tonight.
the system will first present us with a few very warm days with near
record highs on tuesday ahead of the trough. the stacked trough then
cuts off and slowly drifts over the area through the latter half of
the week present a few chances for rain heading into the weekend and
cooler temps, albeit near normal for early november.

the upper level ridge axis crossed the area last night opening the
door for southerly flow to kick up and begin the warm advection
process. combine this with heights building aloft and even with the
wealth of cloud cover, temps will climb into the 60s today and low
to mid 70s on tuesday as the low level jet really ramps up. 850mb
temps will rise into the low teens after being around 9c today.
record highs in the mid to upper 70s look to be possible. winds will
be another issue on tuesday as the low level jet around 35 knots
down to 1500ft could be mixed to the surface. soundings and
probabilistic guidance supports gusts to around 30 knots.

we could see some light rain showers as the warm front lifts through
the area tonight. we`ve seen some blips on radar through the day
which is all virga, but the front will offer better support but
location of the frontal showers this afternoon lines up pretty well
with hires models so best chance for any precip would be over the
saginaw valley and thumb with lesser chances to the se. slight
chance to chance pops will continue to cover this portion of the
event. chances go down on tuesday as we get solidly in the warm
sector while the warm front lights up and expands across the u.p.
and northern great lakes.

closed and occluding upper low then lifts into the upper ms valley
tuesday night into wednesday which will push the moisture axis
through lower mi bringing widespread rain to the area through the
day. cold front pushes through early wednesday night bringing
another line of showers through the area before we dry out some the
rest of the night. dewpoints will rise to around 60f and pwats climb
to around 1.3 inches so there will be some moisture to work with.
qpf looks lean though without greater forcing as the instability
gets held southeast of us and the low tracks to the north. looking
for generally around a quarter inch.

dry slotting in between short wave troughs rotating around the
broader low, will lead to a drier day thursday. thermal trough will
be over the area with 850mb temps down to 4-6c which will knock
highs back to around 60f during the day, which is still above
normal. the longwave trough itself then drifts over the region on
friday with residual moisture axis bringing another round of light
rain or drizzle through the day.

&&

.marine...

broad low pressure over the plains will consolidate over the western
great lakes late tuesday. a warm front passes northward across the
region tonight with southerly wind speed increasing through early
tuesday. the inbound warm air will promote increasing low-level
stability over the lakes and prevent higher winds from mixing down,
but by early afternoon gusts as high as 25 to 30 kt are expected
over the open waters of lake huron. given limited fetch, the
nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt. similar
conditions persist into wednesday with slight backing to wind
direction over southern lake huron which may necessitate a small
craft advisory along the thumb shoreline. a cold front brings high
coverage of light showers across the area late in the day and into
wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind the front. the
weakening low slowly meanders across the western great lakes on
thursday before a stronger cold front tracks southward across the
region on friday. this brings moderate north and northeast winds
that shift northwest by saturday.

&&

.climate...

record high max temperatures for november 3rd:

detroit: 76 degrees (set in 2015)
flint: 79 degrees (set in 2015)
saginaw: 74 degrees (set in 2015)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1242 pm est mon nov 2 2026

aviation...

a complex of low pressure spans the entire plains states into
central canada today, and this is the focus of aviation conditions
in the great lakes today through tuesday. the system has a primary
low center near the sd/mn border with a warm front extending into
the ohio valley that is accumulating a generous supply of moisture
drawn northward from the gulf coast. a broad expanse of mvfr ceiling
is the result which is moving northward across southern lower mi
this afternoon. these clouds settle into ifr this evening with some
pockets of drizzle as the low level jet ramps up. drizzle is better
added to the forecast as observational trends dictate, however the
ifr mention has plentiful support from the ohio valley to the
midwest.

a south to north break back into vfr follows across the area
late tonight and tuesday morning as the system warm sector builds
into the region. model projections capture the pattern reasonably
well and bring vfr ceiling up toward mbs during tuesday morning. the
current ms valley moisture axis then feeds additional clouds into the
warm sector for sub 5000 ft vfr during the afternoon north of dtw.
warm sector boundary layer mixing also leads to sw gusts near 30
knots from mid afternoon into tuesday evening.

for dtw... mvfr ceiling solidifies this afternoon and then drops
into ifr this evening until a transition back to vfr late tonight or
early tuesday morning. the vfr return is initially ceiling below
5000 ft which becomes scattered during tuesday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings 5000 ft or less this afternoon and tonight.
moderate to low tuesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......tf
climate......tf
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.