Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
024
fxus61 kcle 270646
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
246 am edt sun sep 27 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast has trended towards being dry this evening and
across the area wednesday. rain not expected until thursday now.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily dry, seasonal weather continues through wednesday,
with scattered rain showers returning by thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
seasonal weather continues continue today and through early
this week. a few sprinkles are possible this evening into
tonight across northwest pennsylvania but otherwise should be
dry through midweek. the forecast has trended towards being dry
wednesday, with rain showers expected thursday onwards as
scattered rain showers develop ahead a cold front that
approaches from the northwest.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
vfr will mainly prevail through the taf cycle as high pressure
remains anchored over the great lakes. scattered to broken high
level cirrus will continue across ne ohio and nw pa, and this
may lower to mvfr by the end of the period at keri late tonight,
but no impacts are expected before then. this is due to the
cloud shield from the east coast storm attempting to push west
into the area. the pressure gradient between this coastal storm
and the high over the great lakes will lead to slightly stronger
winds today, so expect light and variable winds early this
morning to become n at 5-15 knots late this morning through the
afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 knots developing in north central
and ne ohio impacting kcle, kmfd, kcak, kyng, and keri. the ne
winds will decrease after sunset this evening.

mvfr mist is possible at kmfd early this morning, but confidence
in fog is low.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog are possible. non-vfr possible in
scattered showers on thursday.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds to 10 to 15 knots with periods of winds close
to 20 knots are expected through monday morning. waves east of
the islands will generally in the 2 to 3 ft range through monday
morning, through some 4 ft waves will possible, especially this
evening. light and variable flow is expected monday afternoon
through tuesday evening before become southerly 10 to 15 knots
tuesday night through wednesday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
905
fxus63 kiwx 270530
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
130 am edt sun sep 27 2026

.key messages...

- cool and dry conditions persist through tuesday.

- rain chances return wednesday through the weekend.

- the most likely chance for thunderstorms capable of heavy rain
is friday into the weekend. however, confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 128 am edt sun sep 27 2026

a diffuse area of vorticity runs into the vigorous shortwave
associated with the nor`easter along the east coast and this allows
for minimal impacts on our dry weather at hand as surface high
pressure and mid level ridging continue to remain in control of the
weather. 850 mb temperatures remain between 10 and 13c, warmest west
of in-15, until tuesday night and really the key to temperatures
increasing will be low level lapse rates which are the best on
monday east of i-69, but also reach 7+c/km today and tuesday. this
helps to keep high temperatures in the 70 to 75f range through
monday. finally, warmer mid teens 850 mb temps work into the area
tuesday through thursday with mid 70s more common across our
southwest counties and southern 1 row of counties. this is as a
higher theta-e plume swings through the area during this time frame.

the aforementioned theta-e plume also brings in enough moisture to
return talk about rain in the forecast again. by the time we get to
wednesday, the strong nor`easter along the east coast has pushed
eastward into the atlantic and a diffuse area of vorticity
associated with a positively tilted trough aloft and a surface warm
warm front enters the area. these warm fronts are synonymous with
having issues with dry air when it comes to causing precipitation,
especially when dry surface anticyclones have been in place overhead
like we`ve had. models continue to struggle with timing the
precipitation into the area with the ecmwf being the only med range
model causing precip across the area late tue night into early thu,
and it appears to be quite dry in its own right. finally, both the
gfs/aigfs/cmc all begin to push more rain into the area thu and this
is when the ecmwf finally brings its better moisture (65f dew
points, 10+c 850 mb dew points) through the area. during this whole
time, tue through late work week, mucape stays below 100 j/kg which
means the convective element remains missing through this whole time
period where rain chances are heightened. the ecmwf has a period of
weak large scale ascent moving into the area wednesday morning as
well as at times between thursday and the weekend. models now appear
to be much slower bringing the cutoff low in the south northward
toward the area, waiting until the weekend to do so and that`s why
the ecmwf has so much more large scale ascent to work with during
the weekend. as we head into the late week period, we`ll also have
to see where a cold front sets up because if it is just to our
south, we likely avoid the better moisture advection into the area
and surface high pressure is our main weather maker. in summary, for
this wednesday into the weekend period, rain appears possible at
times, but heavy rain and stronger storms appears harder to come by.
the greatest chance for heavy rain would be the later friday through
sunday period as long as a stalled front sets up just right across
the area. in line with the late week/weekend chance for rain, our
highs in the 70s forecast leading up to this period are expected to
be cooler, more like in the mid to upper 60s. at least our lows in
the 40s warm into the 50s and, at times, 60s with the rain around.

these rain chances look to be out of the area by the time we get to
early next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 128 am edt sun sep 27 2026

dry weather remains with the surface high pressure system nearby and
mid level ridging exerting its influence over the area. patchy fog
is possible this morning. high clouds have been a factor in keeping
denser fog at bay, but perhaps those clouds stay away enough to
allow for more than shallow ground fog and patchy deeper fog,
especially in agricultural areas, but probably away from taf sites.
winds back northerly from northeasterly early in the period and stay
below 10 kts sustained.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
753
fxus63 kdtx 270737
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
337 am edt sun sep 27 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into tuesday.

- localized fog is possible this morning and again monday morning.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of next week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...

a tranquil fall pattern continues for the next few days as high
pressure remains in control over se michigan. the origin of the
surface high however transitions away from quebec and toward the
emerging high pressure center over the upper midwest today. this
will reinforce the northeasterly winds that we have seen for the
past couple of days to maintain moisture flux off of lake huron. a
slight increase in wind speed and upstream moisture content over
ontario suggests slightly more aggressive moisture flux than
previous mornings. that said, synoptic scale moisture is still quite
minimal with the 27.00z kdtx sounding sampling pwat of 0.38" (10th
percentile per spc climatology). this has ultimately kept
fog/stratus localized to the thumb/saginaw valley. similar fog/low
stratus concerns will persist each morning until winds flip to the
south tuesday with the departure of the high.

otherwise, seasonable temperatures hold in the low 70s over the next
several days as the pattern remains at a standstill due to the
stalled nor`easter. no signs of any meaningful thickness advection
until tuesday when flow flips southwest as the east coast system
fills in and absorbs into the mean flow. by tuesday night, mid level
flow becomes zonal which opens the great lakes to a low amplitude
shortwave by early wednesday morning. majority of guidance brings
this pacific wave and its accompanying upper level moisture across
the state well ahead of low level gulf moisture. this keeps rain
chances low (<30%) for most of wednesday in favor of just increasing
cloud cover and possibly some virga. there remains disagreement in
model guidance regarding timing of the gulf moisture surge, which
will dictate when rain chances start to ramp up. this looks to be
sometime wednesday evening with rain chances then continuing through
thursday. return flow will eventually be cut off as a cold front is
dragged across northern conus by a northern stream low, which also
ushers in an even cooler airmass to start off october as highs will
only be in the mid-60s.

&&

.marine...

high pressure now situated over the great lakes will hold through
tuesday. some periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be
possible across southern lake huron this afternoon and evening, but
otherwise, wind gust potential to or below 15 knots is expected for
most locations. wind direction will mainly hold from the north to
northeast with high pressure in place.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1151 pm edt sat sep 26 2026

aviation...

enhancement and deepening of subsidence along the periphery of the
northeast us closed low pressure will keep stable conditions over
southeast michigan throughout the period. center of surface high
pressure will be in place over portions of wisconsin and northern
lower michigan. this will keep enough of a northeasterly gradient to
allow for some surface based lake huron moisture to advect and pool
over the northern forecast area. surface condensation pressure
deficits suggests a fog potential sunday morning outside of the
urban heat island. mos guidance is now more supportive of low
visibilities at fnt overnight. maintained the lighter br in the tafs
for the northern sites. any fog looks to burn off late sunday
morning with a very dry sub 5.0 kft agl layer in place across the
region.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......am
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.