Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
011
fxus61 kcle 221129
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 am edt fri may 22 2026

.what has changed...
forecast model guidance has trended a little slower and wetter
for the weather system that will move across the area later
today through saturday night. temperatures are expected to warm
up and feel more like summer later next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) a slow low pressure system will track from the lower ohio
valley into the eastern great lakes later today through
saturday night bringing widespread moderate to locally heavy
rainfall for the holiday weekend. there may a potential for
localized minor flooding impacts to low lying areas and
locations with poor drainage.

2) by early to middle of next week, a warmer summer-like
weather pattern will develop over the great lakes and ohio
valley region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
our weather will start out with fair conditions and dry this
friday morning, but a weather system will quickly approach from
the southern u.s. bringing a soggy start to our memorial day
weekend. the low pressure system that will impact our weekend
weather is currently near the mid-mississippi valley this
morning. ahead of that system, clouds will increase and thicken
throughout today. our afternoon temperatures will climb into
the middle and upper 60s with some locations possibly reaching
70 degrees.

the wet storm system will track northeastward into the ohio
valley later today and tonight. the surface low will track
towards northwest ohio and western lake erie by saturday
afternoon. scattered showers and isolated thunder will develop
south of our area later today and advance northward into
northern ohio late this afternoon into the evening. widespread
areas of showers and isolated thunder will spread across the
entire area overnight into saturday morning.

this system will have alot of tropical moisture to work with.
it is bringing some very rich moisture content with pw values
approaching 1.6" tonight into saturday, which is near the max
value for climatology at the end of may standards. storm total
rainfall amounts will average from 1.0-1.5 inches. some
locations closer to the highway 30 corridor and southward into
central ohio and northeastern ohio may end of with up to 2
inches of rainfall this weekend. there are some concerns for a
localized flooding threat for the usual prone spots that are
low lying and have poor drainage. the localized flood threat
will be something we will monitor and nowcast as this rain event
unfolds.

there are some indications from the high-res models that as the
surface low lifts northeastward across lake erie late saturday
afternoon/evening, some scattered convection may try to develop
over eastern ohio. but this broken line of convection will be
just general thunder and we are not expecting anything organized
or strong at this time. saturday`s high temperatures will have a
wider range from west to east. western areas may reach up into
the lower 70s saturday afternoon, but it will be cooler eastward
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for far neoh and nwpa where the
steadier rain holds on longer through the day.

another weak surface trough of low pressure will swing from west
to east across the area sunday into early monday with additional
chances for scattered showers and isolated thunder. temperatures
will start to climb upward sunday and monday with highs in the
middle to upper 70s. some parts of the area will start to see
drier weather try to move in from north to south during the day
monday or later monday afternoon.

key message 2...
the overall weather pattern shifts in a big way by early to
middle of next week which favors summer-like temperatures. the
model guidance for next week has been showing fairly good
agreement on a psuedo omega block weather pattern developing
over the north central conus, eventually shifting slowly
eastward over the great lakes region by next weekend. this
pattern will favor warmer weather with highs into the 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s. it will also favor lower rain
chances but not completely zero. it will finally start feeling
like summer and that very warm weather may last for multiple
days.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
tafs are currently vfr with some high and mid level clouds across
the region. low pressure will begin to move north into the region
tomorrow morning and ceilings of 3-6kft will develop around 13-
16z. there will be pockets of mvfr ceilings developing mid day,
primarily in the southern taf sites of kfdy, kmfd, kcak, and
kyng. through the day mvfr ceilings will spread northward, then
drop down to ifr with the incoming rain showers. timing of the
rain continues to trend slower with onset for the southern taf
sites 21-23z and 01-02z for northern ones. rain showers are
anticipated through the end of the taf period at this point with
prolonged mvfr/ifr ceilings and visibility. only kcle at this
point has rain ending around 15z on saturday, though ceilings
will still be non-vfr.

winds will be primarily out of the east-northeast at 8-15 knots
through the majority of the taf period as the surface low will
have yet to move this far north. there will be a period of gusty
winds of 20-25 knots tomorrow during the day before easing a
bit in the evening. winds will also begin to shift to be out of
the southeast late tonight with the approaching low.

outlook...non-vfr expected at times friday evening through
late saturday evening. non-vfr possible late sunday into monday.

&&

.marine...
unsettled marine conditions will continue through late saturday
night with a small craft advisory and beach hazard statements
currently in effect. winds will be primarily out of the east to
northeast across the lake through late saturday night ahead of the a
surface low pressure system. in the central and western basins,
winds will be between 20-25 knots and in the eastern basin be around
15-20 knots. by late friday night, winds will shift to be more
southeasterly and be 15-25 knots across the lake. during this time,
waves will build to be around 5-8 feet across the central and
eastern basins.

by saturday evening, low pressure will track across the region and
shift to be out of the south, then out of the west to southwest by
sunday morning. winds will begin to diminish from west to east
throughout the day saturday with the eastern basin hanging on to
elevated with of around 20 knots into late saturday night. a
headline extension may be needed if winds continue trend higher
through saturday evening. by sunday, winds and waves will have
diminished and are expected to be light and variable through mid
week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through saturday morning for ohz003-
007-009-010.
beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
865
fxus63 kiwx 221019
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
619 am edt fri may 22 2026

.key messages...

- warmer with showers and scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into saturday. storms not severe, but locally heavy
rainfall likely. highs in the upper 60s to low 70s each day.

- scattered showers & isolated storms at times through early
next week.

- warming further sunday into next week with highs ranging
from 75 to 85 each day.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 254 am edt fri may 22 2026

for the most part the forecast is still on track. one thing that
has slightly changed is the forecasted precipitation amounts
with values trending lower over the last several model runs.
the current thinking is the disturbance sliding a bit further
east than previous runs. the current precipitation forecast has
generally around 0.50" for most locations northwest of the i-69
corridor and slightly higher amounts towards the 0.75" mark.
there is likely to be locally higher amounts especially where
any thunderstorms develop.

otherwise, still looking at warming gradually through the
weekend and increasing moisture today into saturday with dew
point values getting into the upper 50s and even mid to upper
60s in the southeastern parts of the cwa. this will make for
humid conditions and make for generally uncomfortable
conditions. the pattern holds fairly steady with bouts of
scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms each day into
next week, better chances will be in the afternoon periods
especially for any thunderstorm activity. highs by memorial day
and through next week will get into the lower to mid 80s. air
conditioning use will be on an uptick over the next several
days to help mitigate the impacts of the moist airmass in
place.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 613 am edt fri may 22 2026

vfr conditions expected through 14z for kfwa and 20z fri for
ksbn with an influx of low level moisture pushing northward
associated with a disturbance moving out of the southwest
bringing mvfr cigs. light rain and showers look to make it into
kfwa between 22z fri through 00z sat accompanied by lower ifr
cigs. ksbn cigs lower to ifr cat after 02z sat and rain showers
push into the terminal. there is the possibility for a few
embedded thunderstorms mainly after 02z sat however confidence
is low in timing and coverage. easterly winds becoming gusty
after 12z to 14z with gusts around 25 kts at times.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
127
fxus63 kdtx 221042
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
642 am edt fri may 22 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool today

- rain returns tomorrow morning. locally heavy rainfall around an
inch is possible from monroe to port huron.

- warming trend next week with temperatures back to normal values.

&&

.aviation...

mid cloud, already in place over se mi, will continue to stream into
the region through the rest of the morning. low pressure lifting
out of the tennessee valley towards the southern great lakes will
result in a gradual expansion of lower sub 5kft cloud from south to
north over the course of the afternoon/early evening. ceilings
continue to drop near mvfr territory late evening-tonight with
showers developing overnight. with the low center set to track near
detroit-toledo, a moisture rich near surface layer likely supports
low mvfr to ifr ceilings by saturday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated for the current
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000ft through early afternoon, high
by late afternoon into saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 344 am edt fri may 22 2026

discussion...

the 1030 mb high pressure system centrally located over the border
of ontario and quebec will continue to track east-northeast over
quebec through the day. southwestern periphery of this system will
maintain dry conditions across se mi under east flow which will
bring slightly below normal temperatures with highs in the mid to
upper 60s. development of low pressure around ark-la-tex will bring
the next round of rain as low pressure progresses northeast into the
ohio valley, centering over the southeastern corner of michigan/west
lake erie by saturday afternoon.

widespread rain will move into se mi through the morning hours as a
strengthening low-level jet draws higher theta-e air northward into
the region. isentropic ascent through the low-levels and added
support from an associated mid-level wave will generate a wide
footprint of of rain showers across the cwa. locally higher rainfall
totals are expected generally along or south of a line from port-
huron to adrian. this will be tied to the possibility for enhanced
rainfall rates from the 850-700 mb frontogenetic response northeast
of the surface low, where this low-level jet and isentropic ascent
is maximized. the recent 00z guidance does place the better fgen
potential just east of the forecasting area, lowing confidence for a
swath of highly localized rainfall exceeding an inch, however,
ensemble guidance and some cams still support this lower end
potential to achieve an inch rainfall. please see the hydrology
section for additional details. otherwise, slightly breezy for both
today and tomorrow with wind gusts ranging between 20 to 25, isolated
30 mph.

rainfall rates decrease through the afternoon and evening hours but
light rain shower potential persist as low pressure tracks into lake
huron, washing out across lake ontario. limited thermal advection
and rain chances hold temperatures below normal tomorrow. it would
not be surprising to see daytime temperatures struggle to move out of
the 50s with copious cloud cover and rain. a lull in rain chances
will be likely overnight, with renewed chances again sunday afternoon
and evening as a mid-level wave and very weak cold front traverses
over the state. confidence in coverage of any rain showers is much
lower on sunday given the more nebulous forcing. a return to more
normal temperatures will be most likely by sunday, and then back into
the upper 70s to low 80s through the early to mid week period as
high pressure builds into the great lakes. there will be some low-end
rain chances from glancing shortwaves, but there is no strong signal
for widespread rain/severe weather in the forecast period after the
weekend.

marine...

high pressure centered to the northeast of the great lakes region
will slowly shift eastward through the day. this will continue to
allow for dry conditions across the marine zones through the early
evening. northeast winds shift to more easterly and increase going
through the day on friday as a low pressure system lifts towards the
region from the south. this will allow the pressure gradient to
tighten, allowing for winds to strengthen as the region resides in
between the departing high pressure and low pressure systems. rain
and thunderstorms chances increase late friday into saturday as the
center of the low approaches the southern great lakes region.
easterly winds will continue to be gusty through saturday, with
potential for gusts to reach up to 30 knots. small craft advisories
are in effect for all the nearshore marine zones through saturday
morning.

hydrology...

a round of steady soaking rainfall is forecast to spread across
southeast mi from south to north saturday morning as low pressure
lifts in from the mid mississippi valley. forecast rainfall totals
range generally between a quarter inch and three quarter inch during
this event. locally higher rainfall totals of an inch or greater are
possible from monroe to port huron. overall dry conditions for much
of the area over the past 30 days suggests the potential for
flooding is low.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement from 10 am edt this morning through
saturday afternoon for miz048.

beach hazards statement through saturday morning for miz083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt saturday
for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt saturday
for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...am
marine.......ss
hydrology....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.