Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 162338
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
738 pm edt wed sep 16 2026

.what has changed...
there continues to be a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
storms and a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall
for locations roughly along and south of us-224.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through thursday as
a front oscillates about the ohio valley.

2) unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. heavy
rainfall and localized flooding are possible late saturday,
potentially lingering in east-central and central ohio into
early sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a slow-moving front continues to slowly drift to the south
across the ohio valley, including across parts of northern and
northeast oh. periodic showers and storms are expected through
the day today into tonight, with locally heavy rain and isolated
flooding remaining the primary concern. anomalous pws on the
order of 200+% of seasonal norms remain draped across the
region. this, combined with very deep warm cloud depths, provide
an environment conducive for torrential downpours and localized
flooding, especially in the more persistent or training
activity. this is most likely across parts of northwest/west-
central ohio through this evening, but the greatest coverage
will spread east into north-central ohio late this evening into
tonight.

there is also the potential for a few strong to severe storms
today as well, primarily late afternoon through this evening
near/south of us highway 224 into parts of north-central and
northwest oh. given the steep low level lapse rates but rather
marginal midlevel lapse rates, the primary concern with this
activity will be strong to isolated damaging wind gusts,
especially from 21z to 03z. it is important to note that
scattered to numerous storms are expected to persist past 03z,
although the severe risk will be waning late into the evening.
the heavy rain and flash flood potential will probably increase
a bit after dark through the overnight with fairly widespread
coverage expected during this time frame, particularly for
north-central oh.

although there may be subtle episodic wobbles in the front
position into the day thursday, very little pronounced movement
in the moist airmass is expected until thursday night into
early friday. the front will sag south thursday night as
canadian high pressure builds overhead from the north. the
forecast is trending drier thursday night through friday.

key message 2...
high pressure and tranquil weather will build into northern and
northeast oh thursday night through the day friday, with drier
air and seasonable temperatures.

the front will surge back to the north into the daytime
saturday, bringing anomolously-high pws back north with it.
this will allow for a reintroduction of shower and storm
chances, particularly by late in the day into saturday night as
s/w energy works e through the southern great lakes. widespread
storms are expected once again, particularly saturday evening
through the overnight, with some potential for activity to
linger into the daytime sunday.

the min concern for this time frame will be the heavy rainfall
threat. area pws remain high with the potential for 1-3 inches
of rainfall across lower michigan into northern ohio. wpc has
maintained a slight risk (level 2 of 4) across northwestern and
north-central oh for saturday (ending 12z sunday).

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
rain showers and thunderstorms continue to move through central
ohio. thunderstorms are moving to the east-southeast and are
impacting kmfd for the next couple of hours, then kcak and kyng
within a few hours. these have been dropping visibility down to
mvfr/ifr conditions briefly before rebounding to vfr. in
addition, there could be gusty winds near 30 knots with
thunderstorms. showers and thunderstorms should taper off over
the next several hours.

ceilings will drop at all terminals overnight tonight down to
ifr conditions and persist through the morning. recovery to mvfr
is not expected until 10-14z and will continue through the taf
period. there is a chance for showers tomorrow afternoon across
the southern terminals, though confidence is low.

winds will be fairly light across the region at less than 5
knots through much of the taf period and vary between southerly
and westerly. by tomorrow morning, winds will become primarily
out of the west to northwest at 5-10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms
saturday through sunday.

&&

.marine...
flow is becoming northerly to northeasterly between 10-15
knots through thursday. northerly onshore flow increases to
12-18 knots thursday night into friday, which may briefly lead
to choppy conditions across nearshore zones in the central
basin. for friday evening into sunday, winds will waver between
easterly to northeasterly at 12-18 knots. wave heights may
build to 2-4 feet across the nearshore zones in the eastern
basin on sunday under northwest flow 15-20 knots. northeast flow
will increase to about 25kts by sunday night. numerous rounds
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the lake
now through thursday and again saturday into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...23
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 162342
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
742 pm edt wed sep 16 2026

.key messages...

- 1 or 2 additional rounds of showers and storms are possible,
mainly late tonight into thursday morning. heavy rain and
associated flooding potential are the greatest concern,
especially in areas that experienced heavy rain over the past
24 hours. flood watch in effect for parts of northern indiana

- dry and less humid conditions on friday followed by renewed
opportunties for rain and storms this weekend.

&&

.update...
issued at 318 pm edt wed sep 16 2026

after further discussion with surrounding offices, it was
decided to hoist a flood watch from midnight through 2 pm et
thursday for the area that experienced the highest rainfall
amounts over the past 24 hours (grant, blackford, jay, wells and
adams counties). some areas to the nw and n also had pockets of
higher amounts and it could be argued to include them, but given
the greatest likihood for additional precip holding off till
towards thur morning will defer to later shifts. no other
changes have been made.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 pm edt wed sep 16 2026

a small window of drier conditions should unfold for the next 6 to 9
hours for many areas in the wake of the departing mcv and associated
precip. upstream across il a few showers are developing and can`t
rule out widely scattered showers and storms later today into this
evening in areas that see limited clearing (mainly se). spc has
maintained the marginal risk for severe in our se with a low chance
for some locally gusty winds from any more organized storms that
produce wet microbursts, much like yesterday.

the greater concern lies with flooding potential later tonight into
thursday. most areas across n indiana and to a lesser extent nw ohio
have experienced multiple rounds of showers and storms and all signs
point towards another round overnight developing upstream and moving
ese along the quasi stationary boundary that will be draped across
the area. pwats continue around 2" and probably even higher with no
major change in air mass expected until later thursday into friday.
wpc has all but out mi counties in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall, which is very reasonable given the setup. while confidence
is somewhat higher on at least parts of the area being impacted,
some cams (especially the hrrr) develop 2 rounds with one shortly
after 6z across southern areas and then the upstream development
arriving towards 12z thu. while a flood watch could be easily
justified given the wet conditions and potential for another 1 to as
much as 3 inches in some spots, confidence on timing and location of
the heaviest precip remains low enough to hold off on any headlines.
pops have been adjusted to reflect trends with a larger,
broadbrushed likely area late tonight into thursday morning with
precip then ending from west to east.

late thursday into friday it still appears that much, if not all of
the area should see a breather in rain chances along with somewhat
lower humidity. late friday night into sat this changes as yet
another wave moves towards the region which forces the front back
north and brings rain chances with it. hydro concerns will likely
remain given the small window of drying.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 741 pm edt wed sep 16 2026

a shortwave lifts off to the east-northeast during the first 12
hours of this taf period which would normally usher in a period of
subsidence and quell overnight rain chances. unfortunately, a low
level jet arrives with continued warm advection and this may be just
enough to set off more showers and thunderstorms overnight. this
appears to run along and south of us-30, which lowers confidence in
rain activity near sbn, but doesn`t necessarily rule it out, and
puts fwa squarely in its cross-hairs. hrrr and refs guidance
both have chances between 6z and 10z, and rain chances expanded
in coverage especially by the time we reach 12z. this wave moves
through allowing dissipation of heavy rain some time during
thursday afternoon. during this time, mvfr conditions will be
the norm with sbn starting with it and fwa dropping down into it
not too long after taf period start. some ifr will be possible
in cigs as well as with dropped visibility in heavy rain. have
more confidence in ifr cigs overnight than visibility, but fwa
has the best chance to see ifr visby.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from midnight edt tonight through thursday
afternoon for inz026-027-032>034.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 162355
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
755 pm edt wed sep 16 2026

.key messages...

- light showers are likely tonight into thursday, primarily south of
m-59.

- a short-lived dry period is expected thursday night into friday.

- widespread showers return in earnest saturday into saturday night.
rainfall totals in excess of half an inch are likely, with the
potential for 1 inch or more.

&&

.aviation...

ceilings across the airspace have recently lifted to low vfr,
although satellite trends and short-range model forecasts suggest
this improvement will be brief. thus opted for a more pessimistic
forecast keeping mvfr prevailing conditions through the overnight
hours. light northeast flow continues to assist in moisture flux off
of lake huron, while additional moisture surges in from the west
into the elevated frontal zone. this keeps low stratus in place
while also bringing shower potential back into the airspace early
thursday morning. instability is confined to a relatively shallow
layer, meaning the chance for a rumble of thunder is very low with
this shower activity. the added moisture from showers and nocturnal
minimum may cause ceilings to lower briefly toward ifr around
daybreak before lifting back to mvfr to low vfr for most of
thursday.

d21/dtw convection...there is a very low chance for a rumble of
thunder between 06z and 12z thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through thursday.

* very low for thunderstorms between 06z and 12z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt wed sep 16 2026

discussion...

a strong upper level ridge (600 dam at 500 mb) will be retrograding
west through tennessee over the next day. deep pseudo-tropical
moisture (12z dtx sounding indicated a very impressive 7 c dew pt at
700 mb) will remain nearly stationary over far southern lower
michigan and the ohio river valley. it will not take much forcing to
initiate showers, and looks like a series of subtle shortwaves will
continue to track out of the midwest and track along/close to the
southern michigan border through thursday morning. the forecast is
skewed toward higher pops, as euro ensembles indicate a 24 hr qpf of
a tenth of an inch or more along and south of m-59 in the tonight-
thursday timeframe. instability looks modest into southern lower
michigan with weak mid level lapse rates, while more significant
cape holds south of border. thus, any thunderstorms that develop are
not expected to be severe, but will serve to enhance rainfall.

as the upper level ridge continues to track westward, the ridge axis
will extend into the northern plains, allowing upper level flow to
become west-northwest over the central great lakes later thursday.
this will support subsidence and a drying-out process as a
pronounced surface ridge, extending from strong high over northern
ontario, moves in for thursday night and friday.

however, showers will return in earnest for the weekend as low
pressure comes out of the central plains and deep pseudo tropical
moisture returns. euro ensembles indicate > 70% chance of half an
inch or more or rainfall, with 40-60% chance of one inch or more in
the saturday into saturday night timeframe. uncertainty if there
will be another substantial round of showers on sunday or monday, as
one last trailing upper level wave moves through, shearing out in
the process.

marine...

cooler north-northeasterly flow in place across the central great
lakes following this morning`s cold front. winds weaken into tonight
and stay on the lighter side (<20kts) through thursday as the
southern edge of northern ontario high pressure slides overhead. the
now stalled frontal boundary near the ohio border attempts to lift
back north as a warm front saturday as plains low pressure tracks
into the great lakes but likely only clears the southern great lakes
before the system tracks across lower mi. widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly focused over the
southern half of the region. a moderate gradient, supporting
easterly gusts 20-30kts, lingers behind the low sunday into the new
work week as the area holds between the stalled boundary over the
ohio valley and high pressure over northern ontario.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.