Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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109
fxus61 kcle 040808
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
408 am edt sun oct 4 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) outside of a low chance of a few showers across ne oh/nw pa
tonight, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected
through the next several days.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will move east across the area late today and into
tonight, delivering low-end rain chances to portions of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. any rain
amounts will be light. otherwise, dry weather is generally
favored across the area for the next several days thanks to
mid-level dry air with the frontal passage and high pressure
building over the region through the middle of the week.

temperatures will fluctuate a bit this week, although highs will
largely be in the 60s and lower 70s. monday will be the coolest
day of the week with highs in the low to mid 60s expected.
overnight lows will be quite cold monday night due to efficient
radiational cooling with forecast temps falling into the upper
30s and lower 40s. locally colder temperatures as chilly as the
mid 30s are possible in typical cold spots monday night
including portions of interior nw pa and the central highlands,
where there could be patchy to areas of frost. this will be the
first opportunity for frost headlines, although there is still
uncertainty with how widespread any frost will be. otherwise,
overnight lows will be in the 40s each night.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
vfr is expected through sunday evening. winds will be light and
variable early in the period becoming westerly 5 to 10 knots
sunday afternoon and evening.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected into early this week.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds around 10 knots are expected ahead of a cold
front today before quickly shifting to the northwest and
increasing to around 20 knots behind the front tonight. a small
craft advisory has been issued from midnight tonight until noon
monday from vermilion oh to ripley ny, where waves will be 3 to
5 feet. winds may remain elevated through monday evening so an
extension for portions of the eastern basin may be needed. winds
will become variable and diminish below 10 knots monday night
with southwest winds to 5 to 10 knots expected for tuesday. a
cold front will approach from the west on wednesday which will
make winds increase to 10 to 20 knots. guidance favors winds to
15 knots or less and becoming more westerly by thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from midnight tonight to noon edt monday
for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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697
fxus63 kiwx 040653
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
253 am edt sun oct 4 2026

.key messages...

- primarily dry conditions are expected for the next several
days.

- sunday, notable temperature difference northwest to southeast
as a cold front moves through. highs will range from the
mid-60s to mid-70s, respectively.

- cold tuesday morning with lows in the 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 231 am edt sun oct 4 2026

weak disturbance moving eastward across lake michigan this
morning with clouds and a few rain showers associated with it.
did add some light rain showers this morning over northern half
of berrien county in michigan where a few showers may make it
to the surface as it pushes through. radar imagery does show
some returns especially over the lake but with the drier low
levels much of it is likely virga. also, adjusted low
temperatures up this morning by a few degrees as waa ahead of
this disturbance along with some moisture indicated by slightly
higher surface dew points. this and the addition of some clouds
moving through with the disturbance will keep temperatures a tad
warmer than originally expected this morning. temperatures
currently as of 2:30 am edt are still in the low 50s here at the
office.

a cold front behind this disturbance will move through the area
later today and this will keep high temperatures a bit cooler
(in the upper 60s) for northwestern areas while highs will warm
into the low 70s further south and east. clearing skies will
also take place later today with the cooler and drier airmass
moving into the area behind the cool front.

dry weather will then be expected through the remainder of the
work week into next weekend and a cooler start to the week with
lows back into the 40s on monday morning with highs then only
getting into the low to mid 60s. then a reinforcing shot of
drier and cooler air arrives monday night with temperatures
dropping into the low 40s and even getting in some locations to
the upper 30s. will still have to watch this carefully as
clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational
cooling and if a bit drier air moves in would allow for a bit
colder temperatures perhaps into the mid 30s for some locations.
still would recommend if you have temperature sensitive plants
or animals that you protect them monday night into tuesday
morning out of an abundance of caution.

a northwesterly flow aloft envelopes the region by midweek
becoming more zonal late in the week with a high amplitude ridge
building eastward into the central conus by next weekend. this
will provide for a warming trend from tuesday into next weekend
with highs by saturday and sunday getting into the mid to upper
70s. perhaps a few locations along the southern tier of our cwa
could see close to 80. the next chance of precipitation looks to
be late in the weekend with a southern stream disturbance from
texas moving northeastward into the region.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 124 am edt sun oct 4 2026

a weak cold front is currently approaching the area but very dry
low levels will limit the impact. passing midlevel clouds and a
wind shift will be the only noticeable effects. otherwise, a
few diurnal cu/stratocu on sunday but conditions will remain vfr
with northwest wind gusts generally less than 20 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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734
fxus63 kdtx 040845
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
445 am edt sun oct 4 2026

.key messages...

- narrow band of light showers possible this morning mainly north of
i-69.

- seasonable highs today near 70 degrees.

- below normal temperatures arrive monday with highs only near 60
and lows falling into the 30s. chance for frost is possible monday
night particularly over the saginaw valley/thumb.

&&

.aviation...

mainly mid level clouds are present this morning, with some higher
based light showers working through areas mainly north of m-59.
southerly winds will shift to the west this afternoon, increasing at
or above 10 knots. a sct-bkn vfr cu deck is expected, which may
linger into the evening as cold advection kicks in. winds will veer
around to the northwest tonight, staying somewhat elevated in the
5-10 knot range. there could even be some transient, narrow lower
clouds as a lake superior to lake michigan moisture connection sets
up.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast this period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 309 am edt sun oct 4 2026

discussion...

deep potential vorticity troughing with phased upper level jet
dynamics will push across southeast michigan early today. forecasted
height fields support negative tilting of the axis as it arrives but
with the strongest 1000-500mb height falls passing to the north and
east of the upper peninsula. a late timing of the deepening,
relative to southeast michigan, results in an extremely narrow
ribbon of moisture with shallow midlevel saturation. forecast
soundings support very dry air in the lowest 10.0 kft agl. modestly
better lapse rates above 12.0 kft agl resides over the northern cwa
between 9-13z. the better potential to measure is north of the i 69
corridor with much of the area at less than 40% to exceed a 6 hourly
rate of 0.05 inches of liquid. forecasted pops may be a little low
for the tri cities and thumb but given the amount of dry air in the
low levels will maintain the inherited. gradient flow with mixing
will result in a bump for surface winds this afternoon. west to
northwest this afternoon of 15 to 25 mph. highs today will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, the true cold front not pushing through the
area until this evening.

sharp geopotential height rises over the great lakes region will
support surface high pressure monday and tuesday. much cooler
weather is expected monday with highs in the upper 50s to around 60
despite full sunshine. heart of the anticyclone will be overhead
monday night with dewpoints forecasted to drop into the middle 30s.
with a calm wind environment the likelihood is high that a frost
advisory will be needed tuesday morning for at least a portion of
the forecast area.

the next upper level jet packet with a cyclonically curved exit
region will push into the great lakes late tuesday and wednesday.
will need to monitor the southward extent to the absolute vorticity
advection as it relates to the pop forecast. the current forecast for
the probability of precipitation is low for the midweek period. the
forecast area looks to be perilously close to troughing which offers
uncertainty for pops heading into next weekend. temperatures look to
be around normal next weekend.

marine...

high pressure over the central and eastern great lakes region will
gradually move over the northeast through the end of the weekend as
low pressure tracks east across southern ontario, remaining north of
lake superior. while this low is progged to remain well north of the
area, it is expected to intensify as it moves east towards the james
bay area. this will result in a large-scale uptick in winds over the
region and a window for low-end gales over northern lake huron
sunday night and monday morning as cold air advection ushers in a
higher potential for destabilizing the boundary layer over the open
waters and mixing down stronger winds.

further south on lake st. clair and the nearshore waters of lake
erie, similar south winds to start the day will become west and
eventually northwesterly by the end of the day. winds will also
increase sunday night into monday; however, they will not be as
strong that far south and currently look to remain below small craft
advisory levels. winds gradually weaken late monday into tuesday as
a transient area of high pressure briefly moves through the region.
we then see another system track north of the area, but will bring
another uptick in winds for mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from this evening through monday morning for lhz361-362.

small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 am edt monday for
lhz421.

small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 pm edt monday for
lhz441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...cb
marine.......cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.