Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
576
fxus61 kcle 202344
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
744 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

.what has changed...
slightly decreased storm total rainfall amounts across portions of
central ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
evening.

2) widespread rainfall expected sunday night through monday which
may result in rises on area rivers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are
developing and will remain possible through the remainder of
this afternoon and early evening as a shortwave aloft pushes
through the region. highest coverage for showers and storms
will occur along and east of the i-71 corridor where the best
instability, albeit fairly weak at 400-700 j/kg, exists. locally
stronger but sub- severe thunderstorms may be capable of
producing isolated wind gusts of 30-40 mph and small hail.

key message 2...

widespread rainfall will overspread the ohio valley sunday night
through monday as a shortwave aloft moves across the region. at the
surface, the center of the low pressure is expected to track due
east across northern ohio on monday. this system will be moisture
rich as pwat values will range between 1.25-1.75 inches, which are
above the 90th percentile for mid/late june. overall qpf amounts
continue to decrease slightly with current storm total rainfall
amounts ranging between 0.75-1.25 inches. slightly higher amounts of
1.25-1.50 inches are possible near the i-75 corridor and along the
lakeshore. some embedded thunderstorms will be possible monday
morning, though the best instability remains south of the forecast
area. localized flooding may be possible in any convection and/or
showers/storms that train over the same area. the majority of the
forecast area remains in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall with a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for the western
third of the forecast area.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
high pressure will build into the region this evening into the
overnight and allow for vfr conditions with mostly clear
conditions and light west flow. some mid-level ceilings will be
in and out of the keri terminal but should remain vfr. a low
pressure system will approach from the west on sunday and a
mid-level cloud deck will push across the entire region ahead of
it. the first bit of rain will reach the western terminals of
ktol and kfdy just before the end of the taf period but any
non-vfr should be later on sunday night. rain should also reach
kcle in the 30-hour taf but any non-vfr would be later on monday
morning. winds will shift around to the east or southeast with
the incoming rain toward the end of the forecast period.

outlook...non-vfr likely sunday night into monday with rain.

&&

.marine...
a cold front is sweeping across the lake through this evening,
shifting winds to a west-northwest direction...generally 10-15kt
in the ohio waters and 10kt or less to the east. these winds may
briefly perk up to 15 to nearly 20kt late this afternoon into
this evening in parts of the western and central basin before
shifting more northwesterly and gradually diminishing overnight
tonight into early sunday. waves of 1 to 3 feet will generally
handle things through tonight, with the greatest chance for some
3 footers in the central basin this evening. winds gradually
flip around to the south on sunday, to the east-northeast sunday
night, and more northeast to north on sunday as weak low
pressure tracks through the northern ohio valley. winds will
become elevated 15-25kt sunday night into monday, and with the e
to n direction we`ll likely need small craft advisories and
beach hazards statements for a number of our nearshore/coastal
zones. calmer conditions return by tuesday behind this system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
902
fxus63 kiwx 210013
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
813 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected
late sunday. most locations will receive 0.5-1.5" of rain with
pockets of 2" or more possible along and south of us-24.

- a high swim risk is expected for southeast lake michigan
beaches on monday afternoon into tuesday morning.

- highs will remain in the 70s for much of the upcoming week
with additional chances for rain mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 132 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

not a whole lot of changes to the ongoing forecast this shift.
pretty nice spring day today with shortwave ridging rippling
through the continued cyclonic flow over the area associated
with the broad low pressure circulation over ontario, canada.

the next disturbance moving eastward out of the rockies into the
plains states overnight tonight will begin to move into the cwa
by sunday early afternoon into our western portions of the area
first before spreading north and eastward into the remainder of
the cwa through the afternoon and early evening hours. with
still a more southern track with this system the main impacts
look to be further south with the center of the circulation
moving through southern in. this will put a more easterly flow
over our area and main deformation band that will lead to mainly
light to moderate rainfall. virtually very little instability
will be present over northern in however with some better
lifting and mid level flow available over central in some
embedded thunderstorms across our far southern tier of counties
will be possible. a strong to even severe thunderstorm cannot be
totally excluded at this time. spc currently has a marginal
risk of severe storms over the southern portions of the cwa for
sunday. with a pretty juicy environment (pwats around 1.7
inches) this should be a fairly efficient rain producer.
expectations right now are about 1 to 2 inches of precipitation
for this event, perhaps a few locations may see up to 3 inches
especially if some thunderstorms move through those areas. wpc
has a slight risk for the excessive rainfall outlook for sunday
over our area. confidence is still not high that we could see
the heavier amounts so did refrain from hoisting any flood
watches to our area.

rainfall looks to begin ending from the northwest to the
southwest on monday before another break in the action with
another shortwave ridge moving into the area on tuesday before
our next shortwave disturbance moves through on wednesday. this
system looks to have a more northerly track this time and
moisture will be a bit harder to come by so not looking as
productive as this next system but will continue to monitor as
we go out in time.

highs this week still look to remain in the 70s look to at
least through friday. however, looking further out it appears
an omega type blocky pattern may develop over central canada
with broad ridging building into the central conus which looks
to bring us more summerlike weather conditions beginning next
weekend and if the block does indeed develop we could be stuck
in that mode for a bit.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 800 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

an eastern pacific short wave and accompanying jet streak will
emerge across the lee of the rockies this evening. strong
downstream low level moisture convergence associated with low
level jet will continue to allow for expanding coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across the plains tonight. this
stronger southerly flow and stronger moisture transport will
shift eastward on sunday will reach northern indiana during the
afternoon. overall low amplitude of this short wave will make
significant northward progression of sfc warm front difficult
sunday afternoon into sunday night with this front expected to
remain south of the us route 24 corridor. nonetheless, elevated
warm frontal feature and strong moisture transport along with
some destablization aloft will result in widespread showers and
a few embedded storms (greater chance at kfwa sunday night)
late sunday afternoon through the early morning hours monday.
instability will be quite limited due to southward suppressed
warm frontal feature. to the north of this front, east winds
will become gusty to around 20 knots toward the end of this
forecast valid period. vfr conditions should persist through 00z
monday but should deteriorate to mvfr and eventually ifr beyond
this forecast valid period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
527
fxus63 kdtx 202319
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
719 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible north of
i 69 into the early evening.

- dry for much of sunday. broader coverage of showers andt hunderstorms
will develop sunday night, especially south of i-94. heavy
rainfall is possible if the low pressure system tracks farther
north.

- showers linger monday morning then dry in the afternoon and evening.


- cooler than normal temperatures are expected through at least the middle
of next week.

&&

.aviation...

lingering window for possible shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity mainly across mbs over the next 1-2 hours, as instability
remains sufficient to sustain meaningful updrafts across this
corridor. otherwise, a gradual improvement in stability with time
will offer a period of vfr as existing high based diurnal cu
gradually fades through late evening. prevailing winds from the west-
northwest tonight gradually diminishing in magnitude. potential
exists for a brief period of shallow fog near daybreak, mainly
across fnt and mbs. forecast will continue to highlight mvfr
restrictions at these terminals. dry and stable conditions will
maintain benign conditions for the daylight period sunday. standard
higher based diurnal cu to emerge with daytime heating. low pressure
system tracking through the ohio valley will bring thickening mid
cloud and increasing rain chances around 00z, with a steady decline
in cloud base likely thereafter heading into the overnight period
sunday.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms expected through sunday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

discussion...

zonal to pseudo northwest flow will remain in place over southeast
michigan throughout much of the next 7 days leading to slightly
below normal temperatures across the region. a modest southern
stream jet impulse is forecasted to eject across the plains late
this weekend phasing with and entrance region to the upper level jet
axis over the upper midwest and great lakes.

forecast thoughts for this afternoon and early evening were provided
in prior discussions including the update. shower and thunderstorm
chances over the northern forecast area will bring the potential for
a heavy downpour and possibly some small hail.

weak upper level jetlet and potential vorticity anomaly is
forecasted to induce leeside cyclogenesis tonight invof colorado.
strong model consensus then exists that a hybrid baroclinic/mcv low
pressure system will then eject eastward through the mid mississippi
river valley late sunday afternoon and evening. some significant
details remain uncertain at this vantage point, including whether or
not the mcv will remain attached to any deeper 850-700mb thetae
axes. it remains likely that deep column, boundary layer rooted
convection will favor a track through central to southern illinois
and southern indiana based on href ensemble mean of cape. great
support for large scale ascent is expected to arrive here locally,
given the phasing of the northern stream and the
configuration/organization to the right entrance region dynamics.
details will needed to be sorted with notable and meaningful north
to south differences of most favorable 700mb and 850mb
frontogenesis. the nam and nam nest solutions are something to
monitor given the amount of qpf in the solutions (exceeding 1 inch)
for portions of far southeast michigan. additionally, the eps
dataset is very supportive of qpf amounts for southeast michigan
with the mean at dtw at over 1.00 inch and with the 90th percentile
at/above 2.50 inches. the current forecast has
categorical/widespread rain chances for areas south of the i 69
corridor sunday night. will forgo any flood watch this forecast
package and will allow for more model data. no severe weather is
anticipated with the sunday night system here in southeast michigan.

high confidence exists that shower and rain chances will end by
midday monday. subsidence and steep downward vertical motion is
forecasted after 18z which should lead to a quick clearing trend.
northeast gradient wind is forecasted which could hold on a touch
into the evening before laying down. highs monday only topping out
in the lower 70s, with temperatures lowering into the lower 60s by
midnight.

strong canadian ridge of high pressure is expected to build across
the state tuesday and early wednesday. deep pv reservoir and
troughing is shown to push eastward by wednesday reestablishign
troughing over the great lakes for the end of the week. it just
looks like a continuation of below normal temperatures at the end of
the period.

marine...

a diffuse area of high pressure will linger over the great lakes
through sunday, supporting a continuation of lighter winds. periodic
rain showers will be possible today as an upper-level disturbance
slowly moves across the region. a compact low pressure system will
through the ohio valley and southern great lakes region tomorrow
night. rain showers are expected to be concentrated across lake erie
up to lake st. clair. elevated northeasterly winds will increase
tomorrow night and persist through the daylight hours on monday. the
longer onshore fetch on lake erie will support higher waves by
daybreak monday.

hydrology...

unseasonably strong low pressure system is forecasted to eject
eastward through the mid mississippi river valley late sunday and
through portions of the ohio river valley sunday night. widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along the
northern periphery of the low pressure system and may bring heavy
rainfall. while uncertainty exists to the exact track of the heavy
rainfall, the potential exists for rainfall amounts to exceed 1 inch
across some portion of southern southeast michigan. the current
model consensus and forecast supports higher rainfall amounts south
of detroit along the ohio border. heavy rainfall and higher amounts
will be possible if the low pressure system tracks northward. if
heavy rainfall axis trends farther north, some potential for urban
flooding will exist.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......gem
hydrology....cb

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.