Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
245 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is growing that any convection that develops will reach
the i-75 between 7 and 8 pm edt with the primary concern being gusty
wind and large hail. the line is expected to weaken as it moves
toward the i-71 corridor.&&

.key messages...
1) a line of convection will develop ahead of a cold front this
evening. some strong to severe storms are possible primarily across
the i-75 corridor.

2) above average temperatures return next week with highs once again
expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure continues to drift off the mid-atlantic coast
today, a cold front will approach the area as a low pressure system
begins to push east across the northern great lakes. ahead of this
cold front, a line of convection is expected to develop in the warm
sector of the low over illinois/indiana, moving into the cwa between
7 and 8 pm edt. current dewpoints over indiana in the upper 60s to
low 70s mixed with the ongoing diurnally heating and theta-e
advection ahead of the boundary will aid in storm development.
additionally, shear values of 20-30 knots should be able to aid in
storm maintenance as they push east. the primary concern with this
evening`s convection is gusty winds and large hail, although there
remains a non-zero tornado chance. the tricky part about the
forecast over the cleveland cwa is how far east these storms will
progress and remain strong to severe. given current model guidance
placing storms in near the i-75 corridor between 7-8pm, general
thinking is that corridor will see the greatest potential for severe
weather before the threat rapidly decreases further east with the
timing of convection becoming less diurnally favorable and
instability decreasing. spc has highlight the i-75 corridor in a
day 1 slight risk (2 of 5) for the storm potential and has also
highlighted portions of the region upstream in a recent mcd
highlighting the ongoing destabilization being observed. with any
storms that develop, there is also a chance for locally heavy
rainfall and due to this wpc has issued a day 1 marginal ero (1 of
4) for the northwest portion of the area.

as the front progresses east tonight, scattered showers are possible
along and east of i-71 but the severe threat will be minimal. this
boundary should reach into far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania by thursday morning when additional thunderstorms may
occur but should remain sub-severe given the weaker environment
earlier in the day.

key message 2...
high pressure returns to the area late friday into saturday and is
expected to persist into early next week. this should allow for a
prolonged period of dry weather over the area in addition to the
gradual warming of temperatures. highs on saturday will remain mild
in the upper 70s to low 80s before climbing into the upper 80s to
low 90s for monday and tuesday. with dewpoints lingering in the 60s,
it will be humid but overall heat indices shouldn`t exceed the mid-
90s. overnight lows saturday night will be in the 50s before they
climb into the mid to upper 60s by tuesday night.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
scattered cumulus clouds of 4-5k are in place this afternoon. a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach
tol towards 23z and fdy towards 00z. included a 2 hour tempo for
thunderstorms at those sites. conditions could drop to ifr in
heavy rain with gusts to 30-40 knots possible and isolated gusts
in excess of 50 knots. the line of thunderstorms is expected to
break up as it moves east so confidence is lower in the 03-06z
time frame. terminals in ne ohio and nw pennsylvania can expect
primarily scattered showers by late tonight. precipitation
should be limited to an hour or two at any location with vfr
sct-bkn clouds around 4-7k into thursday. winds will tend to be
southwesterly at 5-10 knots this afternoon with infrequent gusts
to 20 knots. winds will remain southwesterly tonight then shift
to northwesterly with the passage of a cold front on thursday.

outlook...isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible
into thursday at yng/eri. non-vfr possible in low ceilings and
a few showers moving off of lake erie thursday night into early
friday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds will increase to 10-20 knots tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. in addition, thunderstorms may approach
the western basin of lake erie this evening and may be strong to
severe between 6-10 pm. thunderstorms should weaken in intensity
as they cross lake erie overnight but could still lead to
erratic wind and wave conditions. winds shift to northerly
behind the front on thursday night at 10-15 knots but are
expected to decrease quickly on friday as high pressure builds
overhead. at this time we are not expected to reach advisory
criteria but choppy conditions and a moderate risk of rip
currents could be possible. the trough passage across the lake
could be sufficient for waterspouts to develop. generally good
marine conditions are expected for the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
109 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

.key messages...

- slight risk for severe weather continues today, mainly from
3pm edt to 10pm edt. damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and
isolated large hail to 1 inch diameter are the primary risks.
overall risk for tornado continues to drop, but cannot be
ruled out with initial development of stronger storms.

- seasonable temperatures continue thursday with a very low
chance of an afternoon shower (less than 15 percent).

- becoming warmer and more humid for the weekend.

- there is a moderate swim risk for southwest lower michigan
lake michigan beaches today, and again for thursday for all of
southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 108 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

main focus remains on near term as shower and thunderstorm activity
should slowly increase this afternoon into early evening ahead of a
sfc front. a stronger storm developed over lk mi and has been moving
across van buren into kalamazoo counties in mi. some attempt at
further development sw is noted, but they are struggling due to a
lack of upper support. the trough will continue east with a modest,
yet marginally sufficient shear profile to allow for some increase in
intensity with time. with the best lift remaining north, cells will
tend to grow rather quickly, but then struggle to maintain
themselves outside of any storm or outflow interactions. best window
still appears to be 19-20z to maybe as late as 2z. locally damaging
winds, marginally severe hail (freezing levels rather high today)
and a very low chance for an isolated brief tornado in the early
stages of development. swody1 slight risk was maintained across most
of the area. flooding concerns appear very limited given expected
coverage and duration.

another weak mid level trough will pass through during peak heating
thursday afternoon. some limited instability and moisture will still
exist mainly across se sections to bring a small chance for a shower
or storm in the 20-24z thu time frame. will continue with silent 14
pops in these areas for now.

thursday night through the weekend will feature a change in the
upper level flow to more of a semi-zonal setup as another northern
stream trough digs in the pacific nw. as a result, dry and
seasonably warm weather will settle in with highs in the 80s, lows
in the 60s and somewhat elevated, but tolerable humidity values. the
aformentioned trough looks to move into the dakotas by monday, but
then be shunted ne as a 595 dm high across the se u.s edges north.
model blend continues to throw in some token slgt chc pops as it
struggles with waves that pass nearby, but likely cause no real
impact.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1226 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

cold front remains on target to bring a chance for scattered
convection to ksbn btw 18-21z and kfwa 21-00z this afternoon,
best chances at kfwa. brief vis/cig reductions and gusty winds
can be expected if storms track over either terminal. southwest
winds will gust 15-20 knots pre-frontal this afternoon, becoming
light and westerly later tonight. primary vfr conditions are
anticipated otherwise tonight into thursday, though some patchy
ground br could settle in for a time later tonight at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
313 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

.key messages...

- a broken line of thunderstorms tracks through se michigan between 4
pm and 9 pm this evening. a few strong to severe storms are
possible.

- an isolated shower is possible thursday afternoon, then drier and
less humid conditions are expected through friday and saturday.

- a warming trend brings above normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.discussion...

a couple of thunderstorm clusters have developed over western lower
michigan this afternoon along a continuous line of agitated cumulus
that stretches from northern mi back toward central illinois. the
trend so far has been for cells to be short-lived as they move off
the boundary and away from the instability axis, which is anchored
closely to the cold front itself. local cloud trends are quite
stable still, reflecting remnants of the 850-600mb stable layer that
was sampled in the 12z kdtx sounding.

expectations for the afternoon-evening are still largely on track
where coverage increases to become a broken line of showers and
storms. any deeper convective growth is likely confined to a window
of about 4pm-9pm as moisture convergence sweeps through ahead of the
front and overlaps with weakening shear profiles. the lack of deep
layer shear favors a pulsey/multicellular nature rather than strong
cold pool organization, meaning isolated downburst and hail
potential as cores collapse. given the environment, higher
confidence in a strong-severe storm exists near the ohio border
where instability is greatest although all of se mi is in at least a
marginal risk for severe weather. veered south/southwest flow is
generally less favorable for the streamwise vorticity needed for
tornadoes with a west-east mean wind. that said, there has been weak
mid-level rotation noted upstream so cannot rule out supercellular
structures, mainly early on as shear is at its peak.

the cold front sweeps through late this evening, bringing an end to
thunderstorm chances overnight. a quieter pattern then develops
thursday into the weekend as surface high pressure fills in post
cold front. northwest flow and return of thermal troughing take
advantage of warmer lake temperatures to generate partial coverage
of stratocumulus thursday, which could squeeze out low-topped shower
activity. moisture availability then wanes friday into the weekend
as the high drifts overhead, with winds then shifting to the
southwest by saturday in response. dry conditions thus expected.
coolest high temperatures of the period expected thursday-friday as
h8 temperatures drop into the lower teens across lower mi, equating
to highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

the emergence of sw flow saturday then kicks off a warming trend
that peaks early next week. gfs and euro mos guidance are in line
with the extended nbm, projecting high temperatures near 90 degrees
monday-tuesday. this pairs with a gulf connection where moisture
transport is accelerated sunday through tuesday as low level jet
winds increase to 30-35 knots. this establishes breezy southwest
flow (~25 to 30 mph) during peak heating each day, as well as an
increase in shower and thunderstorm chances across the great lakes.

&&

.marine...

scattered showers and thunderstorms work across the area this
evening in advance of an approaching cold front. an isolated strong
wind gust is possible particularly towards the southern great lakes.
cold front eventually crosses the region late evening-tonight
flipping around winds to the nw for thursday. moderate cool
advection follows with peak gusts between 20-25kts over the northern
portions of lake huron daytime thursday before high pressure begins
to build in. said high then drifts overhead friday and saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1240 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

aviation...

south-southwest winds around 10 knots and vfr cu will prevail this
afternoon ahead of a cold front, which will continue to trigger
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as it passes through
southeast michigan early his evening. adjusted timing of possible
thunderstorms a bit earlier based on current trends and attempted to
narrow the time range, as storms look progressive tracking east;
activity should exit all taf sites by mid-evening. expect a dry slot
and partial clearing through the rest of the evening and most of the
night. however, light west-northwest cold advection flow will likely
be sufficient for low clouds (borderline mvfr/vfr) to spread into
the northern taf sites by sunrise thursday, and then into southern
sites later in the morning before cloud bases rise and clouds
scatter out in the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...a thunderstorm or two is likely to pass through
the detroit airspace between 21-01z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low-medium for thunderstorms late this afternoon/early evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.