Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 pm edt sun jul 26 2026

.what has changed...
scattered showers with isolated thunder have developed across
portions of the mahoning valley this evening. increased the
potential for showers through sunset in this area. no severe
weather is expected.

&&

.key messages...
1) chances for showers and thunderstorms increase today with severe
weather potential late tonight and late monday evening. afterwards,
periodic showers possible across ne oh and nw pa into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the upper level ridge across the central conus continues to build as
a series of shortwaves move around the northern periphery through
the middle of the week. firstly, there is a slight chance for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening, though coverage should be minimal. late tonight into
early monday morning, the first of the shortwaves will move just
west of the region and precipitation chances will increase.
current guidance has an mcs tracking along a thermal gradient
that is situated northwest to southeast across indiana. recent
trends have this feature not impacting northwestern ohio until
monday morning, if the precipitation does reach this far east.
any storms that do reach the area have the potential for strong
to severe winds, and as a result, much of the region is under a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather on spc`s day
1 severe weather outlook.

there will be a lull in precipitation into the afternoon on monday
before the second shortwave ahead of a surface low pressure tracks
through the great lakes region to the southeast. the upper level
ridge, and thermal gradient will have shifted to the east a little
more as well. out ahead of the surface low, bulk shear vectors will
be out of the northwest at 40-50 knots that will support strong to
severe thunderstorms monday evening. as the front approaches late
monday night, storms will develop into a more linear mode. damaging
winds will be the main threat throughout the event, especially with
the linear mode, but can`t rule out any large hail given the
strength of the deep layer shear and instability in any cells
developing ahead of the line. there is still some uncertainty given
how the 12z models have handled this feature, with the hrrr keeping
it well to the west and the nam nest developing it across central
michigan and moving into northern ohio. in addition, how long
precipitation lingers through the morning and coverage of any late
evening storms may inhibit storm development with the front. highest
confidence currently is in northwestern ohio to cleveland, south
through the mansfield area for damaging wind impacts. spc
currently has the entire area in a slight risk (level 2 out of
5) for severe weather with the main driver being the damaging
wind threat.

behind the cold front tuesday morning, a surface trough will linger
across the eastern portion of the region with strong northerly flow
expected. residual moisture is expected, primarily across
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania that will aid in
lake effect showers developing. periodic showers are possible across
the aforementioned area through at least wednesday when drier air
moves into the region from the west with high pressure.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr conditions will persist over the next few hours with mostly
clear skies with the exception across the mahoning valley where
some diurnal cu and associated showers are currently moving
south. these scattered cloud decks are ranging between
3500-5000 ft but any further lowering may result in a brief
period of mvfr at kyng and kcak, but given low confidence did
not include in the taf. tonight the potential for patchy fog
returns across inland terminals as moisture values continue to
creep up. opted to lower those terminals to 5sm with this
update, but in isolated areas visibilities may be reduced to
3-4sm at times. near sunrise, the fog should quickly lift as
temperatures and winds increase. there is a non-zero chance for
additional showers and storms across the northern terminals,
especially ktol as a decaying mcs sags south. confidence in
spatial extent remains low and may be isolated west of the area.
additional storms and non-vfr conditions will once again be
possible monday late afternoon into the evening, but given low
confidence in timing and extent opted to handle this potential
with mvfr prob30.

light and variable winds tonight will become southwesterly at
7-11 knots by monday afternoon with isolated gusts up to 20
knots possible at western terminals.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms monday morning through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
mainly light winds and waves will continue on lake erie through
monday, except for locally higher in and near any thunderstorms
that drop across the lake tonight through early tuesday morning.
confidence in thunderstorms tonight is low, but confidence and
potential is higher monday and especially monday night as one or
two clusters may drop across the lake.

otherwise, w winds will increase to 10-15 knots monday night as
a strong cold front crosses lake erie, with winds becoming nnw
and increasing to 15-25 knots tuesday. nnw winds will continue
at 15-25 knots at times through wednesday, so small craft
headlines and beach hazard statements for rip currents are
likely tuesday through wednesday. nnw winds will gradually
diminish to 5-10 knots by early thursday, becoming light and
variable friday as high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04/23
aviation...04
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
728 pm edt sun jul 26 2026

.key messages...

- low confidence on any severe thunderstorms tonight into
sunrise monday. if storms maintain strength into our area,
damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

- improved confidence in severe thunderstorms monday afternoon
and evening. damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.
tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

- hot on monday with highs near 90s and an afternoon heat index
approach 100 for western northern indiana.

- dangerous waves and currents expected on tuesday at southeast
lake michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 pm edt sun jul 26 2026

filtered sunshine this afternoon now that morning stratus has mixed
out; more humid as well with dew points in the low-70s. all eyes on
the upper great lakes this afternoon where thunderstorms are
underway in extreme northwest minnesota. as to be expected, cams
this morning have varied wildly run-to-run regarding the evolution
of upstream storms these next 24 hours. the general concensus
is that embedded mid-and-upper level disturbances passing
through energetic northwesterly flow will spark afternoon and
evening thunderstorms over the upper midwest today. storms then spill
sse atop a strong ridge in the lee of the rockies. this track
generally keeps the most robust thunderstorms over wisconsin and
illinois tonight, but there are intermittent runs that send a
decaying complex of storms through west-central michigan.

with fading instability tonight, waning bulk shear values, lagging
upper-level support, and a weakening rise/fall couplet on pressure-
change plots, there is medium-high confidence that upstream activity
weakens as it perhaps limps into to the western- third of the
forecast area after midnight. alternatively, it could be dry all
night given the best forcing is well north. also uncertain is
whether or not a second complex of storms can quickly develop
tonight over wi, drifting in locally after sunrise monday. some
cams have these two complexes comically close to one other,
raising significant questions about how quickly the atmosphere
could recover. we`ll retain some pops monday morning to account
for this possibility, but confidence is low for severe storms
tonight through sunrise monday.

monday afternoon and monday night is our best opportunity for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
an approaching 50-60 knot 500-mb jet dives in by late afternoon,
likely sparking storms over southern wi or central mi which
organize and drop south through our area. severe weather
parameters remain favorable, including enhanced areas of srh,
introducing a chance for embedded tornadoes. any morning
activity will directly impact how the afternoon evolves, but the
current timing of 2pm to 2am monday appears on track. hot on
monday as well with highs near 90, especially in the western
half of northern in. afternoon heat indicies will approach 100
degrees, but the possibility of cloud debris and thunderstorms
limits confidence in any heat- related headlines.

not as hot the rest of the week as troughing and surface high
pressure settle over the eastern great lakes. high pressure
softens toward next weekend, introducing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 726 pm edt sun jul 26 2026

the area is in a sort of suppressed (read: subsidence) pattern as a
stronger shortwave departs to the east of the area and only weak
shortwaves attempt to round closer to the height max of the ridge.
it is possible that convection forms over the upper mississippi
valley forms around 6z and approaches the area from the
north/northwest between 12 and 15z monday with ample shear and
around 1500 j/kg of mucape. on the other hand, there appears to
be a low pressure system that approaches during the early
afternoon, monday, and that may be enough to set off
thunderstorms during afternoon. as such, will still keep a
mention of thunderstorms for the 12z time monday out and there
is a model camp for around 00z monday evening for thunderstorms,
but that`s at the end of this taf period so will leave that out
as well. additionally, will keep vfr conditions in place with
southwest winds prevailing and sustained 10+ kts winds during
monday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
705 pm edt sun jul 26 2026

.key messages...

- a stray shower or thunderstorm early this evening gives way to a
dry and warm night.

- additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm clip the area toward
sunrise or early in the morning. an isolated strong storm capable
of damaging winds is possible though overall potential is low.

- better chances for storms monday evening ahead of an approaching
cold front. a few severe storms producing damaging wind gusts are
possible.

- more seasonably average airmass returns for midweek.

&&

.aviation...

a last gasp isolated shower or thunderstorm is limited to the ptk
and dtw areas as daytime heating subsides early this evening. this
is where moderate cumulus has the greatest concentration and is
nearby diffuse lake breeze convergence zones hugging lake st clair
and western lake erie. otherwise, it is just vfr under nearly opaque
high altitude forest fire smoke and cirrus debris streaming in from
the north this evening.

the cirrus debris source is thunderstorms ongoing from eastern lake
superior across northern mn, which remain the forecast focus for se
mi late tonight and monday morning. northern mn storms, or
subsequent nocturnal development, have the best chance to survive
into the southern great lakes while feeding off the east flank of
the midwest instability axis. should this occur, then timing is
closer to or after sunrise and likely grazing western lower mi.
these trends will be monitored while turning toward the next batch
of surface based storms that develop overhead or move in from the
north late monday and monday evening.

d21/dtw convection... a diminishing chance lingers for an isolated
thunderstorm early this evening (20 percent). ongoing storms in the
upper midwest and northern great lakes remain more likely to stay
west of the airfield monday morning. isolated to scattered storms
redevelop monday afternoon and evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight and monday.

* low for thunderstorms this evening, monday morning, and monday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt sun jul 26 2026

discussion...

heat and humidity have returned today with most of the area now
seeing temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. model
advertised elevated warm layer was sampled by the 12z kdtx raob at
725mb providing a modest cap to convective potential this evening.
while cams suggest around 1000 j/kg of both sb/mlcape available late
day, they struggle to overcome said cap and generate much more than
an isolated pop-up shower/storm. afternoon radar trends appear to
confirm this with only isolated pop-up light showers thus far. as
such, its more likely that the vast majority of the area stays dry
this evening. the conditional severe chance if any updraft can break
through the warm layer is likewise low this evening as column winds
below 700mb hold aob 20kts confining the bulk of shear above 3km.
for the late evening-overnight period, there has been notable
convergence amongst high-res models in the cape gradient failing to
cross lake michigan, instead stalling along the wi shoreline. this
results in developing mcs(s) over the western lake superior basin to
exhibit a due south drift in track along lake michigan entirely
missing se mi (aside from perhaps some light trailing stratiform
showers clipping portions cwa). while the forecast tonight will
still keep a slight chance (15-20%) mention for rain, severe chances
are now looking to be minimal.

how exactly monday panes out will depend on the progression of
tonight`s storms over the western great lakes, in large part their
affects on the cape gradient. with the current favored scenario of a
lake michigan track, this effectively pinches off southern lower mi
instability confining main reservoir to wi/il monday. with weak
lower level winds still in place, advection of this gradient east is
slow, not reaching central southern mi until monday late afternoon
pushing the main local convective window back towards ~22-00z. still
a good spread in outcomes wrt to the robustness of said convection
however given the stronger synoptic setup (ie mid-level trough
digging into the central great lakes and an associated surface cold
front dropping south) would expect at least scattered thunderstorm
coverage locally. for severe potential, forecast soundings show only
marginal improvements in low level winds relative to today (~5kt
increase) again confining the majority of shear around/above 3km.
magnitude of available instability is still uncertain given the
dependency of advection, but shear profile does not lend confidence
in severe storm chances.

marine...

still opportunity for isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms to
go up the rest of the evening and tonight, as the central great
lakes resides on the outer fringe of a very strong upper level ridge
centered near the four corners region. a low pressure system then
tracks across the northern great lakes during monday. thunderstorm
activity continues to increase in coverage and intensity with this
system, especially along the trailing cold front that brings a
chance of severe thunderstorms as it moves through the region.
outside of storms, wind and waves are low until the northerly wind
shift post front late monday night into tuesday when speeds likely
reach 25 to 30 knots over southern lake huron. small craft
advisories will likely be needed as elevated waves build over the
southern lake huron basin. winds slowly diminish on wednesday as
large area of high pressure over the western great lakes slowly
advances east, arriving on thursday. this will assure dry conditions
for those days.

hydrology...

convective rainfall chances will increase monday afternoon and peak
monday evening. locally intense rainfall rates will be possible with
any convection. there is the potential for a couple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms over some areas during this time period.
probabilities for a quarter to one inch of rain are moderate to
high. the chances for locations to exceed an inch are low (less than
20 percent) at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......sf
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.