Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
794
fxus61 kcle 062345
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
645 pm est fri nov 6 2026

.what has changed...
increased lake effect pops downwind of lake erie this weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler with periods of lake effect showers through the weekend.

2) turning milder next week with unsettled weather returning late
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level low pressure will dive southeast across the lower great
lakes region tonight through saturday. at the surface, a cold front
has swept east across the local forecast area this morning leaving
gusty northwest flow in its wake. anticipate for a period of
scattered lake effect rain showers to continue across the
traditional snowbelt through saturday night. lake effect showers
will briefly exit saturday night into sunday morning as a ridge of
high pressure builds overhead from the southwest. another upper
level shortwave will dive southeast across the eastern great lakes
sunday into monday with lake effect showers downwind of lake
erie in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
additionally, it will remain gusty through the weekend with
northwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 mph on saturday and
southwesterly to westerly winds gusting up to 35 mph on sunday.

remaining cooler this weekend with low temperatures tonight through
sunday falling into the low to mid 30s. high temperatures in the
upper 40s to lower 50s on saturday will warm into the mid to upper
50s by sunday.

key message 2...
the first half of next week looks mainly dry and mild as surface
high pressure remains across the ohio valley. another upper trough
will dig south into the region later in the week. however, current
medium range models have some differences in exact timing. for now,
expect for unsettled weather to return at some point later next
week.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
a brief period of mostly vfr is observed right now, though
widespread mvfr ceilings will fill back in, along with rain
showers in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania tonight.
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible at times
09-18z saturday, mainly at and near kyng and keri, which could
could bring brief ifr conditions at times with visibility and
ceilings.

ceilings will begin to scatter out saturday afternoon across
northwest ohio as high pressure builds in from the west.

west-northwest winds around 6-10 knots overnight will increase
to 10-12 knots with gusts around 20 knots during the daytime on
saturday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers in far northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania sunday afternoon through monday
morning. otherwise, mostly vfr conditions are expected.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds remain elevated at 15-20 knots this afternoon
and will increase to 20-25 knots tonight. northwest winds 15-25
knots on saturday will turn southwesterly saturday night into
sunday. winds may briefly touch 25-30 knots another cold front
will swing across the lake sunday night which will allow for
winds to return northwesterly at 20-25 knots. wave heights
through this weekend will largely range between 4-8 feet,
primarily east of the islands. a small craft advisory remains in
effect for all nearshore zones through the weekend, except the
western basin which expires at 10 am saturday morning. surface
high pressure builds overhead early next week which will allow
for winds to decrease below small craft criteria.

there is also a risk of waterspouts through the weekend given
the cold air aloft and potential for persistent lake effect
showers.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
345
fxus63 kiwx 062330
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 pm est fri nov 6 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers will continue
through tonight, mainly for areas west of interstate 69 in
northern in and southwest mi.

- seasonably cool conditions continue into saturday night
before a slow warming trends commences, with highs in the 60s
by tuesday.

- cooler temperatures return for the second half of the week.

- no significant precipitation expected saturday through friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm est fri nov 6 2026

well defined upper low centered near saginaw bay (lower mi) with
several weak disturbances/troughs rotating around the feature as it
drifts slowly ese reaching western ny by 12z sat. weakly convergent
flow along the eastern shores is keeping the main area of rain
showers from south haven to south bend. instability and favorable
fetch peak into mid afternoon with combination of lowering inversion
heights, departing low and core of coldest air shifting east should
lead to a downward trend into tonight. kept some lingering pops into
the overnight before ending. temperatures tonight will drop into the
low to mid 30s, coldest outside of any lake effect cloud cover.

low level waa will commence on saturday, but bulk of greatest
increase will occur in the afternoon, limiting impacts on afternoon
highs to the lower 50s. after one more cold night in the lower 30s,
high temps will begin to rebound a few degrees each day into tuesday
with a return to above normal levels (low to mid 60s) by tuesday.

a semi zonal upper flow will be interrupted by a northern stream
wave, with a front pushing into the area by wednesday. the trough
will deepen into the second half of the week with additional waves
move through the flow. the main impact appears to be a return to
near or somewhat below normal temperatures to end the work week.
some lake effect shower chances could arrive thu/fri, but overall
flow right now may favor portions of far nw indiana into ne
illinois.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 630 pm est fri nov 6 2026

lake effect rain showers and stratus will continue through the
late evening as cool n/nw flow persists. expect a general trend
toward mvfr ceilings overnight as the boundary layer slowly cools
but pockets of vfr will remain possible through the evening.
rain ends around 06z but mvfr ceilings will persist through
early sat afternoon before winds back and dry air advection
scatters the low cloud deck.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
698
fxus63 kdtx 062318
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
618 pm est fri nov 6 2026

.key messages...

- decreasing coverage of isolated showers into tonight with mostly
dry and cooler conditions tomorrow.

- dry with temperatures a few degrees above normal by sunday into
early next week.

&&

.aviation...

compact mesoscale low pressure system is currently digging southward
over the relatively warm waters of the southern lake huron basin.
good wraparound deformation forcing exists across some portions of
the area with light rain activity currently relegated to the thumb.
strong northerly winds have remained confined to the open waters.
the center of the low will remain vertically stacked as parent
vorticity maximum wobbles and digs southward to the eastern lake
erie basin by 12z saturday. loss of daytime heating and vertical
mixing this evening will result in lowering ceilings. an axis of
better low level moisture is expected to advect across the area
during the late evening and bring a chance for light showers or
drizzle. dry air advection and return of daytime mixing will result
in vfr sky conditions saturday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through saturday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 pm est fri nov 6 2026

discussion...

closed low pressure system swirls across the central and eastern
great lakes today. cold advection on the back side of this system
with the help of the relatively warmer lakes continues to maintain a
high degree of lake clouds and scattered rain showers/drizzle across
se mi this afternoon. iso-sct rain showers existed across much of se
mi earlier this afternoon with surface temperatures in the lower-mid
40s. the melting layer was and remains a little too elevated above
the surface across the forecast area to confidently put any chance of
snow into this evening/tonight, so rain p-type will be prevailing in
this forecast package. chance of precipitation will become focused
more across the thumb and east/central portions of the cwa heading
into tonight with high degree of cloud cover remaining. cold
advection supports low temperatures tonight down to around freezing.

low pressure will draw further to the east bringing an end to
precipitation chances for most of southeast michigan tomorrow
morning. though some precipitation chances may hang around across
far eastern portions towards the late morning hours. moist cyclonic
flow maintains a fair amount of clouds into tomorrow afternoon. a
shortwave ridge quickly moves over the area tomorrow night bringing
a period of warm advection with w-sw flow. the next canadian trough
will be rather progressive as it swings through behind the ridge. the
greatest height falls and lift remain far enough to the north that
best associated precipitation chances will hold mainly over lake
huron that potential clip the northern thumb. as it passes by,
westerly winds will become well mixed and offer a gusty winds of 25
to 30 mph on sunday.

the milder conditions moving into the great lakes on sunday will
carry into early next week. daytime highs into the mid-upper 50s for
monday with a slight increase into tuesday with highs forecast to
eclipse 60 degrees. passing ridge on monday will keep conditions dry
for the day. another wave monday night into early tuesday may offer
another glancing chance at rain across the north, but otherwise
mainly dry. long range models depict greater amplitude troughing mid
to late next week bringing better chances for precipitation and a
return to cooler/near to slightly below average temperatures.

marine...

a trough of low pressure continues to carve south across lake huron
which in turn has resulted in strengthening northwest flow both in
response to the well mixed boundary layer from cold air advection
and from the overall strength of the pressure gradient. gusts around
25 to 30 knots and rain showers will be likely across lake huron
through the evening, along with some isolated gust potential to
gales across central lake huron and closer the the thumb. given the
lower confidence for gale potential, will continue to preclude any
gale headlines. small craft advisories will remain in effect for
both elevated wind gusts and waves.

wind speeds will decrease through tomorrow as the aforementioned
trough of low pressure exits into new england. lighter winds will be
short-lived as a second low pressure system then pushes from the
central canadian provinces into southern ontario and quebec on
sunday. this will initially support breezy southwest flow with gusts
aob 30 knots given the more stable conditions under the warmer air
aloft. however, as this low departs, winds will veer to the
northwest, ushering in another round of cold air. the boost in
instability over the warmer lake waters will help mixing depths tap
the stronger winds aloft, bringing increasing confidence for gust to
gales sunday afternoon into monday morning. as a result, a gale
watch is now in effect for north and north-central lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from sunday afternoon through monday morning for lhz361-
362.

gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lhz363-421-441-462.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est saturday
for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lhz422.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est saturday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...aa
marine.......aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.