Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
367
fxus61 kcle 182333
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
733 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

.key messages...
1) a line of severe thunderstorms will move across the area this
evening, with most of the storms in the 4 to 9 pm window. a few
scattered storms are possible this afternoon ahead of the line. main
hazard is damaging winds and heavy rainfall, but isolated tornadoes
and hail up to quarter size are possible.

2) additional showers and thunderstorms are likely monday night and
tuesday. storms may be strong to severe, primarily on tuesday.

3) cooler and less humid sunday and monday, brief return to heat and
humidity tuesday, then more significant cooling the rest of the
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a very active summer evening is on tap as a strong cold front
crosses the region and interacts with a hot, moist, and unstable
airmass to bring widespread strong to severe thunderstorms. early
afternoon satellite and water vapor loops show a significant
mid/upper shortwave trough digging into the southern great lakes
with an associated 1000 mb surface low ne of georgian bay. this
shortwave will swing through the eastern great lakes this evening,
with the left exit of a 90+ knot h3 jet streak and somewhat
negatively tilting trough deepening the low to 990 mb by tonight as
it lifts toward the canadian maritimes. the trailing cold front
looks to progress southeastward across lake erie, northern
ohio, and northwest pa between 21 and 03z this evening. forecast
soundings have shown little to no capping in the warm sector
today, and convective temperatures have already been reached
with air temps in the upper 80s to around 90 and dew points in
the low to mid 70s. heating of this very moist low-level airmass
is resulting in mlcape values pushing 3000 j/kg and surface
based cape as high as 5000 j/kg. this has already initiated
convection in nw pa and along and south of the u.s. 30 corridor
where a weak surface boundary has locally enhanced convergence.
this convection is primarily a locally heavy rain risk, but an
occasional downburst is possible given steep low-level lapse
rates of 7.5 to 8 c/km.

the main show will come immediately along and ahead of the cold
front where strong forcing for ascent will trigger a qlcs in
southern lower michigan and ontario province. this line will
propagate southeastward across lake erie and much of northern
ohio and nw pa this evening, with the greatest risk for severe
weather in the 20 to 01z (4 to 9 pm window). mid-level flow will
strengthen as the front approaches, with deep layer (0-6 km)
bulk shear increasing to around 35 knots. this combined with the
impressive aforementioned thermodynamics will be more than
sufficient for organized, sustained updrafts. the orientation of
the deep layer shear vector is somewhat parallel to the expected
orientation of the line overall. this may cause parts of the
line to sag across the area and backbuild a bit, leading to a
sneaky heavy rain risk since pwats will be nearing 2 inches, but
the overall threat remains damaging winds. any parts of the line
that can orient more n to s will be more normal to the deep
layer and 0-3 km shear vectors, and this will cause those
portions of the line to surge out and bow. where these surges
occur will have the most widespread damaging winds, with pockets
of 70+ mph possible. mid-level dry air (dcape around 1200 j/kg)
will further air in downdraft strength and associated wind risk.
the surges/bows combined with low-level (0-1 km) shear
marginally favorable at 15-20 knots could support a couple of
brief qlcs tornadoes. finally, any embedded areas of rotation
will help to sustain taller updrafts for pockets of hail, but
high freezing levels should keep the largest stones around
quarter size.

the convection will quickly exit the area by midnight tonight,
with dry conditions the rest of the night through monday as
canadian high pressure builds across the great lakes.

key message 2...
after a quick shot of canadian high pressure monday, another
strong mid/upper shortwave will dive from the upper midwest
monday night through the southern and eastern great lakes
tuesday as a longwave trough and associated closed low deepen
across the great lakes and northeast conus. this continues to
look like another dynamic system for mid summer with the
potential for severe weather tuesday ahead of the strong cold
front as a deepening surface low lifts up toward hudson bay.
however, the timing, location, and evolution of the tuesday
storms remain uncertain because a low-level jet monday night
will probably initiate convection (possibly an mcs) upstream
along a retreating warm front. this activity could linger
tuesday morning and disrupt the heating, as well as put down
outflow boundaries that could cause new convection to initiate
southeast of our area. maintained high pops for showers and
thunderstorms monday night and tuesday afternoon, but details
will need to be worked out. rapid drying is expected tuesday
night in most areas, although showers could linger in ne ohio
and nw pa into wednesday due to the deepening mid/upper trough
and associated cool air aloft/cyclonic flow across the warm lakes.

key message 3...
mid/upper troughing across the great lakes and northeast conus
sunday and monday combined with canadian high pressure at the
surface will bring cooler, less humid air, with highs in the mid
70s to around 80 sunday and low to mid 80s monday. this will set
up a refreshingly cool night sunday night, with lows in the mid
50s to around 60. a brief surge of heat and humidity will return
ahead of the significant shortwave tuesday, as a warm front
lifting across the area monday night and tuesday morning brings
70+ f dew points back into the area. however, the cooling behind
the cold front tuesday night looks even more significant as the
deep trough/upper low takes up residence over the great lakes.
this will drop highs into mainly the 70s wednesday through the
end of the week, with lows in the 50s.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
a cold front was located over lake erie, northeast to southwest.
northwest winds were present across southeast michigan and
ontario. most of the convection was south of the taf sites.
however, there was a line showers and embedded thunderstorms
located from kcle to kelleys island and movement was not
perpendicular to the line but southeast. as a result, will carry
a tempo group for ts at kcle and vcts at kmfd. have removed ts
from ktol and kfdy this evening. the cold front will move
southeast with northwest winds behind the front. this will
create a short period of low level windshear at kcak and kyng
00z through 02z. cold front will push through all taf sites by
03z with shifting to the north behind the cold front around 10
knots. vfr conditions are expected for all taf sites after 04z
through sunday 00z.

outlook...non-vfr possible with haze/smoke on sunday and monday. non-
vfr becoming more likely in showers and thunderstorms monday night
through tuesday. some thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and evening
may contain strong wind gusts. residual non-vfr possible on
wednesday on rain showers across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will continue across lake erie this
afternoon as southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a
cold front. winds will shift towards the north behind the front
later this evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, before diminishing
to less than 10 knots by sunday afternoon. no changes in this this
package with the small craft and beach hazards for the central
basin, and maintain zones west towards the islands, mainly for cold
air advection later this evening and overnight.

on tuesday, rough marine conditions will arrive with southwest winds
of 15 to 25 knots ahead of a cold front. headlines are likely
tuesday through wednesday as winds shift towards the northwest
behind the cold front, around 20 knots.

strong thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across lake erie this
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through sunday morning for ohz009-010.
beach hazards statement through sunday morning for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt sunday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 8 am edt sunday for lez146>148.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...fz
marine...fz

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
182
fxus63 kiwx 182356
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
756 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

.key messages...

- smoke from canadian wildfires will continue to bring periods
of poor air quality and reduced visibility through at least
monday.

- high swim risk conditions are expected along lake mi beaches
in berrien county, mi and la porte county, in this evening
into late tonight. dangerous waves and currents are expected.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms return monday
night into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1241 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

main focus of forecast remains on arrival of a cold front, set to
bring a round of strong to severe storms this afternoon and early
evening. in the wake of the front, northerly winds which will bring
cooler and less humid air as well a high swim risk for the se lake
michigan beaches.

initiation has occurred a few hours ahead of schedule with a broken
line of non-severe showers and storms from cass county, mi west to
chicago. spc recently issued a mesoscale discussion highlighting
the concerns and trends for the next several hours. to sum it
up, sufficient instability (over 2000 j/kg of sbcape and a
narrow band of around 1000 j/kg of dcape) is already in place to
allow continued organization over the next several hours as
they move sse with primarily a damaging wind threat with the
stronger storms. sufficient low and mid level lapse rates will
allow for hail production, but freezing levels aoa 15,000 ft may
lead to increased wet microburst potential with embedded
smaller hail. movement will be somewhat faster than yesterday,
but pwats above 1.75" will allow for some isolated hydro
concerns, especially in isolated areas that received 2 to 7
inches of rain over the past 24 hours. maintaining a period of
high likely pops along and ahead of the front.

the front will clear the area this evening with increasing nw winds
to bring a peak to dangerous swim conditions for all beaches along
se lake michigan. beach hazard statements remain in effect into
sunday. winds will shift more ne with time and slowly reduce the
risk sunday night.

cooler and slightly less humid conditions arrive behind the front as
the heat dome shifts west and we end up in a nw flow aloft which
persists through the remainder of the period. as is often the case
with these nw flow setups, one or more convective complexes are
likely to develop upstream and may move across portions of the
region. the main potential right now look to reside with a stronger
trough arriving later monday into tuesday which will likely bring
some showers and storms and maybe a risk of severe weather,
depending on the timing of the feature.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 752 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

predominantly vfr conditions outside of hz/fu from wildfires
filtering back in. uncertain as to how low the visibility will
drop later at night, guidance suggests an initial drop to 4-6sm
(currently happening at ksbn) and then improvement back to 6sm
or greater later tonight. expect kfwa to drop to 5-6sm at some
point (closer to 3z), based on the immediate upstream obs from
the n-nw. otherwise, decreasing lower-mid level cloud cover
tonight, then high clouds return later on (sct-bkn).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ sunday night
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
beach hazards statement until 4 am cdt sunday for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt sunday
night for miz078>081-177-277.
beach hazards statement until 5 am edt sunday for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
993
fxus63 kdtx 182242
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
642 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

.key messages...

- a severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for parts of
southeast mi this afternoon and early evening.

- an air quality alert is in effect north of i-69 today due to
wildfire smoke returning from the north this afternoon. a statewide
air quality alert has been issued for sunday.

- benign weather sunday and monday before the next round of showers
and thunderstorms arrives monday night into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

the cold front has now exited south of metro detroit. ongoing dry
stable air advection will inhibit additional convective activity.
post frontal gusty winds within ongoing cold air advection will
gradually degrease during the evening as daytime mixing ceases. the
post frontal north-northwest flow has however driven the smoke plume
back into se mi. this will result in mvfr visibilities tonight into
early sun morning. most recent hrrr near-surface smoke model suggest
the north-northeast flow on sunday will drive the smoke out of much
of se mi during the course of the day.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the next
30 hours.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

discussion...

today`s cold front has reached northern metro detroit and will
continue to advance southward before exiting the area by early
evening. the bulk of deep convection along the front so far this
afternoon has been east of i-75 where deeper moisture and better
frontal convergence appear to have set up. a severe thunderstorm
watch remains in effect for areas south of the front as we continue
to monitor additional development. wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph will
be the primary threat. based on current trends, suspect we will be
able to end the watch locally before the current 8pm expiration
time. behind the front, breezy northwest wind has pulled down some
of the northern great lakes wildfire smoke plume. this will take
residence through the evening into tonight. current visibility and
aqi observations indicate a lower concentration of pm2.5 than was
seen earlier this week.

weak mid-level height rises allow high pressure to build into the
great lakes on sunday, with northeast flow through much of the day
bringing in a dry air mass with seasonable temps. one or more
additional bands of wildfire smoke will likely work across the area
but available models generally show a decreasing trend in
concentration with time. the high passes into the mid-atlantic on
monday with southwest return flow bringing rising thicknesses and
slightly higher temps. another dry day is forecast as deeper
moisture will hold farther upstream until monday evening. a
shortwave ushers in a plume of deeper moisture along the surface
warm front monday night and brings the next round of showers and
thunderstorms. severe prospects are uncertain given the mainly
nocturnal timing, but some pockets of heavy rain will be possible.
the cold front will lag behind, likely passing through during the
day tuesday. this leaves the door open for some additional
convection tuesday but chances may be hampered by the activity
monday night and tuesday morning.

the upper air pattern shows an amplified trough tracking across
northern ontario and the great lakes tuesday into wednesday. 850mb
temps are modeled to fall to the single digits c by wednesday, which
favors cooler highs in the 70s. deep cyclonic flow and passing
shortwaves aloft bring potential for showers. northwest flow remains
pervasive over the region into the late week as a strong ridge
dominates the western conus - this keeps seasonable temperatures and
lower humidity around locally.

marine...

cold front settles south of the region this evening. a brief period
of gusty post-frontal northwest winds will exist through early
tonight, with an accompanying increase in wave action along the
nearshore waters. this will maintain a period of small craft
conditions lasting into tonight. benign weather conditions with
lighter winds will then exist sunday as high pressure builds across
the area. unsettled conditions may develop again by late monday and
monday night, as a strong low pressure system tracks across ontario.
gusty winds ahead of the attendant front may lead to small craft
advisory conditions monday, particularly across saginaw bay.
potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase during this
time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.