Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
196
fxus61 kcle 131807
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
207 pm edt mon jul 13 2026

.what has changed...
opted to issue a heat advisory for northwest ohio and portions of
north central ohio for tuesday. additional heat advisories may be
needed for wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat and humidity will build early this week with peak heat index
values in the mid 90s to low 100s.

2) periodic showers and thunderstorms return late this week and
continue into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
closed off 99th percentile mid/upper level high centered over the
upper midwest will gradually drift southward into the great lakes
and ohio valley region. heat and humidity are expected to build
across the region tuesday into wednesday as 850mb temperatures, also
99th percentile, peak near 23-25c. have issued a heat advisory for
northwest ohio and portions of north central ohio, including
cuyahoga county, for tuesday as heat index values rise to 100-103 f.
another day of heat headlines will likely be needed on wednesday for
a similar geographical extent, but opted to hold off on issuing for
wednesday with this forecast package. widespread major heatrisk
(level 3 of 4) is expected both tuesday and wednesday. ensure that
you remain hydrated and consider adjusting outdoor plans to the
cooler parts of the day.

the upper high will gradually flatten and dissipate over the ohio
valley mid/late this week. a cold front passes south wednesday night
but it will remain warm with highs in the 90s. however, peak heat
index values will lower to the mid 90s for thursday and friday.

key message 2...
the upper level ridge moves west as an upper level trough
and surface cold front sink south from the northeast towards
the eastern great lakes near the end of the week. shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase friday evening through the
weekend in the wake of the cold front. some thunderstorms this
weekend may reach strong to severe limits but confidence in
timing and extent remains low given lower confidence in
magnitude, track, and timing of the aforementioned upper level
trough.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
widespread vfr conditions will persist through this period as
high pressure remains dominant over the area. diurnal, scattered
cu are possible this afternoon into the evening, but should
remain above 4kft. overnight, skies clear out before another
round of cu develops late tuesday morning into the afternoon
hours. kcle and keri are currently being impacted by a lake
breeze that developed with north-northwest winds around 10 knots
being observed. as the sun sets, all winds will become light and
variable through the overnight hours. winds will increase to
5-10 knots from the west-southwest mid-morning on tuesday.

outlook...vfr favored through thursday. non-vfr chances increase
starting late friday into the weekend with showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected under high pressure. light
winds will become southwesterly and increase to 10-15 knots
overnight tonight and persist through wednesday morning. winds
shift westerly during the day wednesday before turning northerly
behind a cold front wednesday evening. northerly winds wednesday
night through thursday afternoon should remain at 10 knots or
less. waves may build to around 2 feet with the onshore flow but
are otherwise expected to remain at 2 feet or less through the
week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt tuesday for ohz003-006>011-
017>019.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...04
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
312
fxus63 kiwx 132236
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
636 pm edt mon jul 13 2026

.key messages...

- high heat is forecast for tuesday and wednesday with heat
indices around or above 100f. a heat advisory has been issued
for tuesday. it is possible that the high heat continues into
the later part of the work week as well.

- the potential for showers and thunderstorms (20-40%) enters the
forecast late this week into this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 137 pm edt mon jul 13 2026

the short term weather is dominated by a ridge of high pressure over
the area. over the course of this week, a trough builds into the
northeastern us and this buckles the ridge strength potentially
bringing cooler weather and probably brings more unsettled weather
by the end of the week.

the first issue in the short term is the heat potential tuesday and
wednesday. the 850 mb temperatures conducive to 90f high temps with
maximum mixing actually build into the area today as 850 mb surpass
18c. however, with east winds, drier humidity remains across the
area. there is actually some possibility that 70f degree dew points
begin poking into northwestern parts of the area this evening as
sfc temperatures begin to drop with the sunset. for tuesday,
850 mb temperatures surpass 23c which often leads to 95f with
maximum mixing and 70f dew points push farther into the area
during the day. the greatest confidence is in areas north of
us-24 seeing this combination of 90+f high temps and 70f dew
points that leads to 100- 105f heat indices. as such, have
hoisted heat advisory headlines for that area. this gives the
next shift one last look to fine tune headlines before onset.
for wednesday, it is interesting to see that the gfs is cooler
than the ecmwf as the gfs keeps 850 mb temps cooler than the
ecmwf`s 23+c. meanwhile, it would appear that the ecmwf mixes
dew points back into the 60s in some areas wednesday. perhaps
the evapotranspiration factor could be lower since many of
those areas with corn have not received rain in a while. given
this uncertainty have stood down from heat headlines for
wednesday. the other issue is the amount of drying that takes
place on thursday. confidence is still relatively low on its
placement and this could affect both temp and dew points in the
area. the ecmwf indicates there could also be mixing issues even
if the front doesn`t make it into the area. when the overnight
heat indices struggle to drop below 72f or so, little relief is
felt overnight, and when daytime heat indices are around 100f or
so during the daytime, three consecutive days of such
conditions can put a strain on society. the lower confidence of
a third day of heat surpassing heat advisory thresholds as well
as overnight heat indices being more like 70 or 71f disqualifies
this event from that the excessive heat warning criteria when
looking at it this far out. it is interesting to see that 70f
does still push its way into the area at least through sunday
and is possible at least into next week depending on what model
you look at. at the same time, buckling the ridge would provide
less confidence in seeing the high heat continue.

after a long period of dry weather, the nbm has chances for rain
showing up friday afternoon in what appears to be a pop convection
scenario. as an mcs moves from the upper great lakes towards the mid
atlantic/northeast friday night, there could be some afternoon
convection saturday afternoon. the gfs brings the cold front through
the area saturday night, but the ecmwf keeps the area in the better
heating into next week keeping rain chances across the area.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 634 pm edt mon jul 13 2026

very few changes needed for the 00z tafs. high pressure overhead
will continue to bring light winds and vfr ceilings. winds
become light and calm overnight, picking back up around 5kts by
tuesday afternoon with diurnal heating.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert from midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight to
midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tuesday night for inz005-012>015-
022-023-104-116-204-216.
heat advisory from noon edt /11 am cdt/ to 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/
tuesday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>024-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
air quality alert until midnight cdt tuesday night for inz103-
203.
oh...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt tuesday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016.
mi...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt tuesday for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
744
fxus63 kdtx 131850
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
250 pm edt mon jul 13 2026

.key messages...

- heat builds during the early half of the week with highs in the
mid to upper 90s through wednesday.

- peak heat expected tuesday with highs in the upper 90s and heat
indices near or above 100 degrees. a heat advisory has been
issued for all of southeast michigan noon to 8pm tuesday.

- potential for showers and thunderstorms exists late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

mid-upper ridging across the north-central plains has begun the
process of folding into the central great lakes today supporting
widespread highs in the lower 90s. a notable uptick in humidity
accompanies this airmass as the resident upper 50-lower 60 dewpoints
are replaced by upper 60s-lower 70s pushing heat indexes firmly into
the mid/upper 90s. this also leads resultant overnight lows to only
fall to around 70.

600dam ridge axis is fully folded into southern lower mi drawing the
core of the upper plains heat dome overhead with local 850mb temps
making a run near 25c by late morning. active subsidence combined
with elevated warm advection sets up a strong inversion between 4-
6kft firmly capping the region for any pop-up convection. main
update with this forecast package was to flip the current extreme
heat watch to a heat advisory for tuesday afternoon-evening. while
the nbm continues to remain bullish on highs in the low 100s, local
probabilistic guidance has been more muted instead favoring upper
90s which shifts peak heat indices from the mid 100s to closer to
100-105 range. given the performance from earlier heat waves this
summer, am skeptical of the magnitude of the nbm actual/apparent
temperatures especially as diving into historical climo data for
dtw/fnt/mbs only shows the sites hitting warning criteria (105f heat
index) 15-19 days since 2000. while can`t rule out a few locations
within the saginaw valley or metro detroit touching 105f heat
indices, not expecting the 3 hour duration to warrant a warning over
an advisory.

still hot again wednesday though with the mid-level ridge axis now
directed into the ohio valley by this point, the core of the airmass
is likewise shifted towards northern oh/far southern se mi. areas
south of m-59 likely still see highs in the upper 90s with areas
north falling closer to the mid 90s as a weak cold front sags south.
in a similar vein to tuesday, some of these southernmost locales
could see heat indices touch 105, however duration is expected to
fall short with 100-105 forecast to be predominant. for areas, north
heat indices looking to top out around the 95-100 degree range. at
least portions of the cwa will require another heat advisory however
will take headlines day by day.

late week is marked by continuing southward compression of the mid-
level ridge by troughing across the hudson bay/eastern canada. se mi
looking to reside on the northeast fringe which offers a chance at
near advisory heat indices, at least for urban areas, though also
begins to open the door for embedded shortwaves to clip the region
particularly friday into the weekend as ridging breaks down and
cyclonic return flow develops. any potential convection/mcs tracks
are highly dependent on the exact compression of the ridge which
carries low confidence this far out.

&&

.marine...

hot airmass (850 mb temps in the mid-twenties) will track into the
central great lakes from the northwest through tomorrow, leading to
stable low level profiles. this should hold the max westerly winds
in the 20 to 25 knot range, with the highest winds across northern
third of lake huron due to the channeling through the straits. a
mainly dry backdoor cold front dropping south tuesday night into
wednesday will allow winds to veer to the northwest behind the
front, but still only topping out around 20 knots wednesday evening
over the north half of lake huron. northwest winds at or below 20
knots holds on thursday. the forecast on friday and saturday
unravels due to conflicting model guidance regarding the location
and magnitude of a surface low moving through the great lakes
region. this has significant impact not only on wind speeds, but
also on wind direction, along with bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 101 pm edt mon jul 13 2026

aviation...

high pressure is entrenched overhead with a ridge aloft allowing dry
weather and vfr to persist through the taf period. light winds
generally out of the southwest hold through tuesday, with the
exception of det where lake breeze development causes wind direction
to back se late afternoon-early evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt tuesday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......sf
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.