Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 031734
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
134 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

.what has changed...
a heat advisory has been issued for central and northwestern ohio
for this afternoon.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat and humidity continues for one more day across central and
northwestern ohio with heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s.

2) rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue today through early
saturday morning with the potential of storms being severe today and
friday.

3) quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
elevated heat risk will continue for one more day across central and
northwestern ohio today before temperatures begin to moderate friday
into the weekend. the ridge is slowly beginning to retreat to the
southwest as low pressure moves north of the great lakes to the
east. 850mb temperatures will still be around 20-22c for the western
half of the cwa resulting in surface temperatures to be in the low
90s. dew points again will be elevated in the low to mid 70s that
will push heat indices to around 100f this afternoon into the early
evening. there`s some uncertainty with the eastern extent of the
elevated heat indices as precipitation is expected over the course
of the day today. current guidance suggests that precipitation will
be scattered in eastern ohio through the morning and into the
afternoon that will help keep heat indices down overall to the east.
whereas western ohio should be free of any scattered precipitation
so temperatures will have the chance to climb before precipitation
is expected in the early evening. by that time, more widespread
precipitation is expected to move in from the northwest that
will temper heat indices this evening. based on this, a heat advisory
has been issued for central and western ohio for this afternoon
into the evening. overnight, temperatures will still be warm
with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, though will not rise as
much on friday due to the rounds of precipitation expected
throughout the day. a cold front will move south across the
region late friday into early saturday and temperatures will
regulate back to around seasonal for the weekend and into early
next week.

key message 2...
more rounds of thunderstorms and potential severe weather will
continue through today and friday and, to a lesser extent,
saturday morning. there will be isolated morning convection
across the eastern portion of the cwa that should exit to the
east with the shortwave. another shortwave is expected to move
into the region this afternoon/evening bringing support for more
thunderstorms and severe weather potential. instability will
still be elevated with mlcape around 1500-2000 j/kg and bulk
shear of 30-35 knots. lapse rates will also climb to around
7.0-7.5 c/km with daytime heating. this will promote downburst
potential across the region during the afternoon and evening for
any storms that start to develop. the better chance for showers
and thunderstorms will be in the later evening into the
overnight with the shortwave. clusters of thunderstorms are
possible with this that will bring the threat for damaging wind
gusts and large hail. an isolated tornado is possible as well as
0-1km shear vectors increase ahead of the feature. spc has
highlighted the entire area today in a slight risk (level 2 out
of 5) for severe weather due to this. the shortwave should exit
to the southeast early friday morning and a brief break is
expected ahead of the next shortwave.

this shortwave will enter the region from the northwest mid-morning
friday moving to the southeast. the ridge will have retreat to the
southwest more by this time so the thunderstorm chances will have
moved along with it to be more focused on the central and western
portions of the cwa. there won`t be much recover in the atmosphere
between the previous shortwave and this one, so the severe weather
threat will be lower. that being said, there will still be plenty of
instability, especially in central and northwestern ohio that will
help support any severe weather. there`s still some discrepancies
among the models for friday in regards to timing and coverage, but
generally, coverage should be lower, limiting the overall severe
weather impacts. a cold front will be associated with this shortwave
as it pushes to the south through early saturday. the front will be
slow to move out of the area, so lingering showers and thunderstorms
are possible into early saturday morning.

in addition to the severe weather potential, there will be the
chance for heavy rain and flooding in places that see persistent
rainfall. with the elevated cape, pwats will be around 1.50-2.00"
across the region that will give enough support for the flooding
potential. generally, the time frame that looks to be the most
susceptible to flooding will be tonight into friday.

key message 3...
high pressure will begin to build across the region saturday
afternoon and persist through early next week. building south from
canada, this will drop high temperatures to a more pleasant upper
70s to low 80s with lower humidity. overnight lows will be down into
the upper 50s to low 60s as well.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
challenging forecast in terms of timing multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms that are expected to move through the
region between this evening and friday afternoon. the complex of
thunderstorms currently organizing in western lower michigan is
expected to turn ese and move across lake erie this evening.
this complex will impact most of northern ohio and nw pa with
torrential rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. tried to
tweak the timing of this with tempo groups, and generally expect
it to impact ktol, kcle, and keri between 22 and 01z. the
storms should be weaker with southward extent, but confidence
is increasing that they will at least clip kfdy, kmfd, kcak, and
kyng between roughly 00 and 02z.

there will be a lull most of the overnight, and that should
allow for at least mvfr mist in some of the typical spots
(ktol, kfdy, kmfd), but some additional showers may dive into
the ktol area late. confidence is low on that. there is better
potential for another round of activity entering nw ohio after
16z friday, so started to add shra and vcts to ktol, kfdy, and kcle
after 18z. mainly vfr is expected outside of the mist and
rounds of storms.

sw winds of 5-10 knots this afternoon will turn light s tonight
then w to wnw at 5-10 knots by mid friday morning.

outlook... non-vfr possible in rounds of showers/storms through
friday evening.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet conditions are expected on lake erie through
friday outside of rounds of thunderstorms. a quasi-stationary
front draped west- east across the lake this afternoon and
evening will push slowly south as a cold front tonight and
friday. this will keep winds on the lake light and variable
through friday afternoon before becoming more steadily n at 5-10
knots. stronger ne winds of 10-20 knots are expected late
friday night through sunday as canadian high pressure builds
across the great lakes. this will build wave heights to 2 to 3
feet in the western and central basins at times, and we may be
near small craft advisory criteria. lighter, mainly e winds,
are expected sunday night through tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>008-
017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
flood watch until midnight edt tonight for ohz012>014-023-089.
pa...flood watch until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 031807
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
207 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity continue through with peak heat indices
around 100 degrees.

- 20-30% chance of thunderstorms starting this afternoon and
continuing into the evening. another chance for storms occurs
early friday and potentially again friday afternoon/evening.

- thunderstorms are in the forecast again for saturday.

- a dry pattern takes over sunday through tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 204 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

we continue to have this strong ridge across the southeast into the
end of the work week with high heat (18c+ 850 mb temps that are
conducive to 90f sfc temps with mixing and 70 degree dew points)
that look to continue until we can get some weather in here or a
weakness forms in the upper ridging.

we do have the risk of severe weather today (slight risk from spc)
that with the high heat and instability could produce some severe
weather, primarily west of in-15 and north of us-6 where the better
shear seems to reside. the better flow is north and west of the area
and the nam seems to want to spark some stronger convection in the
18z window across wi today and move it southeast into the evening.
if we can get some good convergence to get some ascent within the
better jet kinematics to the north, that would seem to be enough to
erode the cap and spark some thunderstorms across the area. an
outflow boundary pushes into the area and pushes southeastward and
likely becomes a focus for storms this afternoon. the hrrr and the
rap don`t seem too enthusiastic about it though and so will continue
with the low 20 to 30 percent chance pops that have a threat for
wind, hail.

this puts the area in a bit of a bind for what to do for friday as
far as heat headlines go. since this depends on if overnight
convection can happen or not, do not have a lot of confidence.
individual model guidance seems to place the best chance (35 to 40%)
for heat headlines across pulaski and fulton, white to miami, and
perhaps starke county as well, in indiana for friday, but there is
some chance for areas along and south of us-30. this would be mostly
removed from where thunderstorms are possible on friday at least
where model qpf is being resolved. the issue is that models are all
over the place with the location of the low level jet for friday,
which also provides lower confidence for heat headlines. after
collaboration with neighboring counties have settled with the first
five counties mentioned above in a heat advisory for friday where
the highest confidence resides with respect to storm potential and
heat index forecast. it is possible that some tweaking takes
place in following forecast shifts once storm potential and
cloud debris becomes better realized.

the nam and gfs have model confluence around a low level jet (of
different magnitudes) diving southeast through the area, likely in
conjunction with a convective wave friday evening/night. the ecmwf
does resolve some qpf associated with the low level warm advection,
but those are lower in magnitude than the gfs and nam providing
lower confidence again.

there does appear to be better model agreement around a backdoor
cold front that would bring heat relief and push thunderstorm
chances farther southwest as the upper ridging buckles and a mid
level trough works into the northeast us saturday night/sunday time
frame. this would keep the area dry from sunday through tuesday.

we`re back into the high heat and humidity by wednesday as another
ridge builds into the western conus and pushes eastward toward our
area. a wave approaching for tuesday evening/night may bring our
next chance for showers and storms. another trough winds through
thursday providing another rain and taking away the heat. it is
possible that the heat sort of jockeys around lasts longer than just
a day, but this one day heat chance looks most likely at this
point.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1217 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

thunderstorms over northern illinois may move into the sbn area
as early as 18z and could last through early evening. this wave
will approach fwa around 21z. there could then be another round
of convection affecting both terminals friday morning.
confidence is marginal on exact timing of these features, but do
expect both sites will see some activity over the next 24 hours.
conditions will generally remain vfr, but could lower to mvfr in
heavier storms. winds will be light 5-10 kts out of the
southwest, shifting more south-southeasterly tonight, then back
southwest on friday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012-014-017-018-024>027-032>034-103-104-116-
203-204-216.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt friday for inz013-015-020-022-023.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 031753
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
153 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

.key messages...

- warm and humid again today with heat indices in the 90s, the
warmest of which will be found closer to the mi/oh border and into
the metro region.

- there is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather today. severe
weather development will be possible at all times today, but most
favorable timing will be this afternoon into late tonight.

- shower and thunderstorm chances continue into tomorrow.

&&

.aviation...

a hot and humid airmass has led to blossoming convection along a
convergence axis that stretches from roughly ludington to detroit.
this boundary has and will continue to be the focus for
thunderstorms today and tonight, with a thunderstorm complex ongoing
near kmbs at issuance. this feature will ride the boundary southeast
and impact most terminal sites between now and roughly 22z this
evening. light and variable flow persists outside of thunderstorm
activity, but quickly ramps up to 40-50 knots in thunderstorms with
additional hazards including large hail and an isolated tornado
threat. once convective activity clears out this evening, a clearing
trend is expected overnight and, depending on the extent of this
clearing, could result in low stratus/fog development tonight-friday
morning given the moist boundary layer. thunderstorm activity
continues into friday in which severe weather continues to be
possible.

d21/dtw convection... a thunderstorm complex currently near kmbs
will track southeast along a convergence axis through the afternoon,
bringing potential for severe thunderstorms to all terminals between
now and 22z. damaging winds in excess of 50 knots are the main
threat, but large hail in excess of 1 inch and an isolated tornado
are possible as well.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less early this afternoon. moderate
after 00z tonight.

* high for thunderstorms between now and 22z this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 958 am edt thu sep 3 2026

update...

a wealth of elevated instability resides over most of the region
this morning with the 12z dtx raob depicting steep lapse rates of
7.6 c/km between 780 mb and 610 mb, fueling over 2500 j/kg of
mucape. observed ebwd of 33 kt with a straight hodograph is plenty
for organization of updrafts this morning - evidenced by the mature
convection in the lansing vicinity. this activity will continue to
track ese along an instability gradient and remnant outflow, though
longevity of current intensity carries some uncertainty. current
trajectories carry storms between the i-69 and i-94 corridors through
12pm with potential for isolated instances of severe wind and hail
production, as well as locally torrential rainfall.

this activity will fortify the outflow boundary bisecting the area,
which may then serve as a focus for convection initiation later this
afternoon as a ridge-running shortwave tracks overhead. perusal of
morning guidance doesn`t capture this evolution very well but
continues to highlight increasing likelihood for upstream convection
west of lake michigan to grow upscale as it tracks through during
the peak in diurnal instability. the morning discussion outlines
this scenario well, and will note that the updated spc day 1 swo
expanded the 15% severe wind contour northward to include areas
south of a line from midland/bay city to marysville. the update also
introduced a cig1 area south of i-69, indicating increasing
potential for significant severe winds in excess of 74 mph.

prev discussion...
issued at 345 am edt thu sep 3 2026

discussion...

for this morning... spc mesoanalysis continues to showcase mucape
values around 2000 j/kg along with 35-40 knots of effective bulk
shear with sufficient mid-level lapse rates around 5.5-6c/km. these
conditions have supported repeated rounds of thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, primarily along and and between m59 to i94.
initiation has taken place along a quasi-stationary frontal zone
which has been reinforced from prior convective outflow. additional
showers and storms remain possible through this morning as this
boundary provides a mechanism for ascent within this subtropical
airmass. given the degree of elevated instability and bulk shear,
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through
the morning.

warm and humid conditions are again expected this afternoon
dewpoints again holding in the upper 60s to low 70s. current
thinking is that temperatures will be slightly lower relative to
yesterday which decreases probabilities to reach heat advisory
thresholds. additionally, given where the frontal boundary is, some
potential exists for showers and thunderstorms through the late
morning and into the afternoon which if materialized, could temper
temperatures locally. although several hi-res solutions continue to
retain an early day period of clearing and stronger insolation.
regardless, temperatures will be capable of pushing back into the
upper 80s to low 90s through the mi/oh border into the metro region
with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

for this afternoon and evening, se mi will be susceptible to renewed
thunderstorm activity. one possible scenario will stream from
activity upstream across wisconsin or the western great lakes as a
strengthening llj pools moisture and enhances convergence along the
stalled frontal zone. mean flow and forecasted storm motion would
carry this activity se towards lower michigan through the afternoon
and evening, placing all of se mi within the corridor for potential
strong to severe thunderstorm development. surface based instability
will increase with southward extend. sbcape around 1500-2000 j/kg is
possible near the mi/oh border and tapers towards 1000 j/kg north of
i-69. deep layer shear around 30-35 knots remains solid for
organized convection with all storm modes possible.

damaging wind gusts will remain the primary hazard when taking into
account strong low-level lapse rates, high pw, and strong buoyancy.
this will support efficient precipitation loading for wet
microbursts and/or consolidation of outflows with cold pool dynamics
that can support bowing segments. isolate large hail also remains
possible given improving mid-level lapse rates approaching 6.5c/km.
a large portion of se mi has been upgraded to a slight risk in the
latest swody 1, aligned where the better daytime instability is
projected to reside.

additional rounds of showers and storms then becomes increasingly
likely late tonight into friday morning as an elevated warm front
strengthens from se wi into lower michigan. this has been a pretty
robust signal in the latest 00z runs. the boost in low to mid-level
theta a with convergence along this boundary will help support an
area of showers and storms overnight. while surface base instability
diminishes during this time, elevated instability and strong shear
holds which will maintain potential for organized convection. storm
threat would transition to hail given the more elevated nature of
this activity along with localized heavy rainfall and flooding,
especially with any repeated convection along the boundary. some
uncertainty resides how far east this activity will extend, but the
trends still take activity to or south of m59 overnight.

friday will again offer additional chances for rain and thunderstorm
before ridge amplification across the plains aids in reinforcing
high pressure over the great lakes, which will work to decrease rain
and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

marine...

winds and waves remain below threshold criteria across the central
great lakes, aside from a few thunderstorms passing through a very
muggy air mass this afternoon and evening. gradient winds will shift
from southwest to northwest once a weak cold front drops
southeastward through region. convective chances decrease a bit
overnight within the wake of the slowing front, and winds could
briefly trend towards calm. a low confidence forecast persist
through the end of the week and early this weekend as a ridge over
central conus remains quasi-stationary. this offers several
additional opportunities for periods of showers and thunderstorms.
mws and smw headlines will continued to be used to address short-
term local watercraft concerns. no long-fused headline concerns
through the weekend, although areas of dense fog could become an
issue again late tonight into thursday morning for portions of the
waterways.

hydrology...

there will be multiple chances for thunderstorm development through
the entirety of the day today, with the afternoon and evening hours
affording the best time frame for some better coverage. given that
se mi remains in a subtropical air mass, precipitation rates will be
very efficient with any thunderstorms. a quick 1-2" of rainfall will
be possible with any stronger thunderstorms which would lead to
localized flooding concerns. overnight, there is a signal for
showers or thunderstorm development to then set up around or south
of m59, which will be capable of producing an additional 1-2+" of
rainfall pending where this rainfall axis sets up.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
update.......tf
discussion...am
marine.......kgk
hydrology....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.