Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
899
fxus61 kcle 052328
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were made with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) our weather pattern will eventually become more unsettled
with increasingly better chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the end of this week and into the weekend.

2) temperatures will generally be near or just slightly above
average through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the high pressure system which brought nice, fair weather to the
area over the past couple of days is slowly losing influence
over us as it drift eastward today. a weak and broad low
pressure system has moved up from the southeastern u.s. into the
mid- appalachian and mid-atlantic region today. we are on the
northwest fringes of this weather system. it has brought back
some moisture into our atmosphere, especially over eastern ohio
and northwester pennsylvania. we currently have scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of east central
and northeast ohio as well as nwpa this afternoon, generally
along and east of the i-77 corridor. the rest of the area will
remain rainfree and partly cloudy for the remainder of this
afternoon and evening. the scattered convection over neoh and
nwpa this afternoon will gradually decrease in coverage and move
eastward out of the area this evening.

the next weather system to impact the area will be a weak and
slow moving cold front that is currently located from the
central great lakes region down into the cornbelt belt of iowa.
there will also be a change in our weather pattern with a broad
upper level trough slowly shifting from the north central u.s
eastward into the great lakes region later this week into the
weekend. we will be near the base of this broad upper level
trough for several days starting thursday through the weekend.
we will be watching for little mid-level disturbances or weak
short-wave troughs to round the base of the broader upper level
trough to bring us multiple rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. this weather pattern setup
looks increasingly likely it will continue to be somewhat
unsettled going into early next week as well.

the weak cold front will move closer to our area from the west
tomorrow and eventually stall out over the area or just
northwest of us. this frontal boundary will help in pooling of
moisture along and ahead of it over the next several days with
pwat values up to 1.8 inch at times. we will have scattered pops
across much of the area thursday, especially during the
afternoon and evening. most of the convection will be diurnally
driven with the daytime heating. there will be a slightly better
mid-level disturbance to interact with the frontal boundary on
friday which will bring higher rain chances. some of that
convection on friday may linger into friday night with likely
pops. given the higher moisture content that is expected to be
around, localized heavy rainfall may be possible with any slow
moving and training of storms. we will keep the higher pops in
the forecast through the weekend. saturday afternoon/evening and
sunday evening/overnight will be the two time frames that we
will have the highest rain chances for showers and storms. it
appears that the stalled frontal boundary will stick around and
bring unsettled weather monday and perhaps into tuesday with
higher pops in the forecast. we may finally see a drier forecast
return by the middle of next week as the front gets a push to
move out of our area. it is very possible that we have several
inches of rainfall across the area this weekend into early next
week.

key message 2...
temperatures are expected to be near or at just slightly above
average for early august standards through the weekend into
early next week. high temperatures will generally be in the
lower to middle 80s thursday through monday with overnight low
temps in the 60s. we may see temperatures drop a few degrees by
the middle of next week when a cold front pushes through the
area.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
showers exiting the area and should be out of eri/yng shortly.
vfr. mid level clouds holding on overnight for the eastern
terminals, then cumulus field fl050 again thursday. shra/tsra
too low for mention wednesday for this issuance, but isolated
convection possible. winds remain under 10kts.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through
monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours for
each day.

&&

.marine...
light winds expected to continue on lake erie with a light lake
breeze thursday afternoon. southwest winds on friday and
increase to 10-15 knots friday night ahead of a cold front.
occasional veering southwesterly to westerly is possible as the
front lingers in the vicinity of the lake over the weekend.
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region
thursday evening and continue into early next week, producing
localized erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...26
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
170
fxus63 kiwx 052306
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
706 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions through early evening especially southeast of
intestate 90 corridor.

- chances (30-70 percent) for showers and storms this evening
and persist at times into through thursday and into friday
morning. locally heavy rain is possible.

- low chances for showers and storms saturday into tuesday (20-40
percent).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 151 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

for this forecast period did further trend lower with pops and
further pushed back timing as uncertainty remains high in the
exact evolution of this abnormal synoptic setup. the slow
moving, weakening, and washed out cool frontal boundary with
fairly low amounts of forcing and instability less than 2000
j/kg is not being handled well at all by guidance. there still
is the chance for some locally heavy rainfall at times if
thunderstorms can develop and drift slowly along the boundary in
pretty unidirectional flow and as the environment is rich in
moisture with pwats 1.5 to 2 inches available. however, the
higher rainfall amounts will be very localized and hit or miss
with the showers nature. wpc still has portions of our are under
a marginal risk for exceeding flash flood guidance tonight
through friday morning. this event sure has the earmarks of
having bust potential especially with the increased uncertainty
and a majority of the troughs energy being pushed well north of
the area into canada.

a pretty stagnant pattern seems to set up over the area with
troughing remaining in place to the north of the region and
cyclonic to zonal flow aloft will remain over the area. this
will keep the high temperature trend stable with seasonal
values in the low to mid 80s well into next week. there will
also be periods of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon early evening time frame but with the convective
nature will be again a hit or miss coverage.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 702 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

radar shows a narrow lines of showers and storms entering
northwest indiana and southwest michigan as of the top of the
hour. while the line is weakening, a strong storm will be
possible in the next hour at ksbn, with potential for mvfr
ceilings and visibilities. a slow moving cold front will
continue to bring scattered opportunities for rain and storms
overnight and into the day thursday, although confidence is low
on exactly when and where these chances will occur. have added a
few prob30 groups in at ksbn and kfwa; best chances for rain and
storms at ksbn will be between now and 12z thursday while the
best chances at kfwa start around 12z thursday and continue into
the afternoon. in any storms, mvfr ceilings and visibilities
will be possible. winds remain out of the southwest for the
duration of the taf forecast period around 5 to 10 kts.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
262
fxus63 kdtx 052317
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
717 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and thunderstorms move into the tri cities
today, expanding across the rest of se michigan tonight.

- an unsettled pattern continues thursday into the weekend with
periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

- temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

slow moving cold front remains over far western mi supporting only
widely scattered showers thus far this evening. radar obs have shown
some scattered thunderstorms develop over sw lower mi tied to a wave
rippling along the frontal boundary. this is still expected to offer
scattered shower/storm chances near all terminals overnight.
increasing low level moisture along the front offers a window for at
least patchy fog development late tonight over the northern
terminals. ceilings lower into thursday morning as moisture
increases with mvfr likely front ptk-north,

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for a few thunderstorms
still work across the northern d21 airspace tonight, though
currently not expecting this activity to reach dtw.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings below 5kft this evening, moderate tonight into
thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

discussion...

deformation stretches from hudson bay low pressure into the southern
plains, observed as a continuous band of cloud cover and line of
convection that bisects mid michigan. this boundary will very slowly
drift into se michigan this evening and overnight, and has already
started to generate low-topped showers over sw lower mi and a line of
convection across northern lower mi. so far have seen limited
evidence of deep convective growth, effectively limiting severe
chances this evening. the dry airmass is even more prevalent
southeast of the cloud shield, which currently spans from sturgis-
howell-bad axe and is a good delineation for rain potential this
evening. while the cloud shield is expected to expand east into the
detroit metro region overnight, rain chances hold off until
overnight-early thursday morning given the dry column in place (pw
~1.6" at mbs versus ~0.6" at dtw). even then, duration of rain
chances will mainly be tied to a glancing bout of moisture advection
as a wave travels from iowa to northern michigan early thursday
morning. thus highest pops exist in the tri cities and thumb.

higher confidence cloud cover keeps overnight lows several degrees
above normal--in the mid to upper 60s, which is close to afternoon
dewpoints across the tri cities and thumb regions. mos guidance is
highlighting a brief window for fog around daybreak, mainly across
the north where rainfall has saturated soils.

the surface trough lingers just to our west thursday, keeping a weak
convergence zone in tact before fully washing out friday. this
brings slightly cooler air into the region both due to the leftover
post-frontal airmass and dynamic cooling, with highs forecast to be
in the low 80s thursday and mid 80s friday. thermodynamic profiles
are right on the cusp of being unstable both days, but may struggle
to break the cap as mid-level dry air surges in behind the departing
wave. the best opportunities for convection both days will thus come
if one of the many perturbations in the wave train slides through
during the peak heating cycle. this provides the best support for
mid-level moisture/cooling as well as a more organized wind field
for updraft sustenance. not out of the question for a stronger cell
to produce gusty winds, but this is an outlier scenario in the model
distribution. periods of dry weather are expected to emerge between
episodes of rain, and may even see some pockets of sunshine.

longwave troughing stays entrenched across eastern conus through the
weekend, transitioning to a zonal pattern aloft by early next week
as the atlantic high dislodges. continued influence of the high
through the weekend maintains a gulf moisture connection, keeping
conditions unsettled as the wave train also persists. this supports
a continued pattern of oscillating wet and dry periods into the
weekend, while convective influence makes it difficult to pinpoint
timing. models at the moment are targeting late morning-early
evening timing on saturday for a frontal passage, which would be the
most focused period of ascent this weekend. high temperatures stay
seasonable in the mid 80s through the weekend as well.

marine...

a slow moving cold front will bring rain showers and a low chance
for some isolated thunderstorms across the great lakes through
tomorrow. for today, activity will primarily be focused across lake
huron and the saginaw bay, with increasing rain chances expanding
farther south into tomorrow as the front progresses. winds generally
remain light, shifting northwest or west after the passage of the
front. high pressure builds in in the wake of the front, with a
second cold front moving through friday to saturday. this will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms leading into and
through the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...mv
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.