Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
847
fxus61 kcle 042346
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
746 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

.what has changed...
near term severe threat has significantly diminished due to
convection over the area this morning and early afternoon. best
window for impactful convection over the area is later this
evening if the atmosphere destabilizes upstream.

&&

.key messages...
1) severe and heavy rainfall threat has continued to shift
south and west of the area this afternoon, with a more uncertain
severe weather threat later this evening.

2) aside from some possible showers and storms saturday, dry
conditions will persist through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the severe weather threat this afternoon has quickly diminished
across most of the forecast area, as convective overturning has
stabilized the airmass over northern ohio. instability gradient
has shifted south of the forecast area this afternoon, and
weakening convection across northeast indiana into northwest
ohio may further reinforce the outflow boundary southward.

cams have struggled to assimilate ongoing convection/precip
over the past 12 hours, but the focus for potential severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall is with any development
upstream/over the area in the 00z-03z time frame. however,
confidence is decreasing on the magnitude of severe weather with
instability shunted south and west of the area and limited time
for recovery/advection into the local area. storms will be
mostly elevated during this timeframe, with some hail and heavy
rainfall possible. if storms develop rooted in the boundary
layer, there could be a damaging wind risk and a brief window
for a tornado, although confidence is low and decreasing at the
moment. heavy rainfall would also be a threat with additional
development, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas with
training storms and/or areas with saturated soils due to recent
heavy rainfall.

key message 2...
the pesky frontal boundary that has been focused over the area
most of this week will finally push south of the area late
saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the north
behind a southeast moving shortwave from the lower great lakes
to the mid atlantic. as the front departs, a few
isolated/scattered showers and storms may impact the area through
midday saturday before dry conditions persist under the high
through at least tuesday. seasonable temperatures expected
through monday before a brief warmup into midweek. a weak cold
front should move southeast through the area sometime mid to
late week before additional high pressure returns to the area by
the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
showers may move southeast across the western half of the area
later tonight with the highest confidence at kfdy and areas to
the southwest. confidence in the probability of showers is much
lower to the northeast so amendments may be needed if
guidance/radar trends more east/northeast over the next several
hours. otherwise, most taf sites will experience vfr conditions
through this evening with ceilings lowering and areas of fog
developing late tonight and especially early saturday morning.
ifr conditions in lower ceilings and fog are expected at most
terminals with lifr conditions possible across interior ne
oh/nw pa. keri will likely experience slightly better conditions
(but still mvfr). fog will lift by mid-morning saturday with
stratus clearing and vfr conditions developing during the
afternoon.

winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming
north/northeast and increasing to 6 to 12 knots saturday
afternoon.

outlook...non- vfr possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
waves around a foot or less through today, followed by a cold
front coming through tonight. winds then come around to the
northeast 10-15 knots and wave heights increasing to 2-3 ft
saturday afternoon through sunday night. there is a chance for
locally stronger winds in the central basin sunday afternoon,
especially east of the islands towards the vicinity of
cleveland. northeast winds continue into monday before gradually
veering to south and southwest tuesday into tuesday night.
southwest winds may strengthen to around 20 knots, becoming west
and northwest as a cold front crosses the lake on thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...15
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
787
fxus63 kiwx 050425
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1225 am edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- 30-60% chance for scattered thunderstorms this morning, best
chances early north of us 30. locally damaging winds are
possible with the stronger storms, especially over northwest
ohio.

- a dry and cooler pattern emerges sunday through tuesday.

&&

.update...
issued at 955 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

first signs of convection near the il/wi border as of 0140z,
near the rockford area. mid level wave and a very unstable
environment in the vicinity of a sfc boundary has aided in this
development. last several runs of the hrrr, and other available
guidance, has been in good agreement in at least scattered
convection growing upscale into areas mainly along and north of
the us 30 corridor overnight into early saturday morning
(04-09z), primarily on the cool side of the aforementioned
frontal boundary extending east into northern in and central oh.
the cape profile remains impressive, while deeper layer
shear/forcing is once again on the marginal side. the question
is how quickly this activity can organize into a cold pool
driven mcs with an associated wind and non-zero tornado threat.
latest guidance favors portions of our ne in and nw oh counties
for this potential (near/north of fort wayne area southeast to
the van wert/lima/ ottawa), though plenty of uncertainty remains
given forcing uncertainties and how quickly any bowing segment
can materialize.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 226 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

models continue to point towards a transition to a drier and
somewhat cooler pattern, but as has been the case the past several
days confidence in the finer details of this remain uncertain.

the quasi-stationary boundary remains in place from southern wi to
northern parts of our forecast area and into ohio with a series of
outflow boundaries from multiple clusters of storms south of the
boundary. a line of showers and storms moved off the lake and
was progressing se, but has underwent a weakening trend over the
past hour or so. additional storms are trying to get going along
a outflow boundary in portions of cass co to jay county in.
expect widely scattered to scattered storms to persist ahead of
these area with a window of little/no convection. somewhat
better upper level dynamics and another wave arrive this evening
with limited consensus on isol-sct storms re-developing, but
timing, strength and location differences persist. will keep any
pops no higher than chance across mainly ne half of the area
this evening with a slow southward trend overnight (and
decreasing pops). slight risk for severe continues, but
confidence in overall threat is also low as best shear likely to
remain near the front. for saturday, wherever the front finally
settles in late am into the afternoon will likely see at least
some isolated to maybe scattered development. model blend is
rather messy and although tempted to make some changes, just not
enough confidence mess with anything.

sunday through tuesday still appear to be cooler and less humid with
more pleasant highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s
as the upper level ridge retrogrades slightly to the west. this
doesn`t last long with a push back northeast occuring for the second
half of the week and subsequent return to chances for convection
and/or increasing heat and humidity.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 1225 am edt sat sep 5 2026

scattered convection over southern lake mi and southwest mi will
attempt to organize and slide east-southeast along a frontal
zone early this morning. confidence on whether this activity
clips kfwa and ksbn with brief gusty winds and vis restrictions
through 09-10z remains on the low side with tempo/prob30
mentions retained. model guidance continues to suggest a period
of mvfr cigs/vis toward daybreak into the midday saturday
otherwise with no changes made.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...steinwedel
discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
970
fxus63 kdtx 050402
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1202 am edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- there remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
tonight. while widespread severe weather is not expected, an
isolated stronger storm is possible.

- more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity are slated to
return this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms transition to more of
nocturnal and elevated character during the late night, especially
now that the surface front is stalled well to the south and west of
se mi. that is where the stronger storms are preferred which is also
where greater instability resides. this far east along the terminal
corridor, pockets of showers and isolated thunderstorms develop
overhead or move in from northern lower mi throughout the night into
saturday morning as moisture percolates within elevated portions of
the frontal zone.

late evening observations also show mvfr ceiling progress running
behind schedule toward mbs and into the thumb after the initial ne
wind release. however, there is enough open sky above to allow some
boundary layer cooling and low cloud expansion during the late night
as weak ne wind continues with a general origin off lake huron.
larger scale surface high pressure then begins a southward surge of
dry air from ontario leading to displacement of low clouds from the
mbs area early to mid morning and from dtw late morning to early
afternoon factoring in a brief increase at the onset of daytime
heating.

d21/dtw convection... the chance for strong thunderstorms is
expected to remain west and south of dtw leaving pockets of showers
and a low chance for a rumble of thunder overhead or moving in from
the north during the late night and early morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and saturday morning. low
saturday afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 224 pm edt fri sep 4 2026

discussion...

ongoing elevated convective activity fixated along a lingering
baroclinic zone and within the background of continued sufficient
mid level instability will settle to the south over the next couple
hours. lack of meaningful daytime heating within the immediate wake
of the earlier activity offering a more notable reduction in
available instability moving forward. this occurs within an
environment seemingly lacking in greater tangible forced ascent as
more pronounced shortwave energy embedded within the mean mid level
northwest flow traverses south and west the area. little evidence
within short range model guidance to suggest additional larger scale
redevelopment will occur at least through the back half of the peak
heating cycle. a more localized response remains plausible,
particularly near the ohio border, given closer proximity to the
deeper instability reservoir. it would be within this environment
that s secondary, isolated opportunity remains for more organized
cells to emerge locally or track in from southern wi late this
evening into early tonight /22z-04z/ across that corridor. forecast
maintains a lower end chance mention most locations through the
night, accounting for the presence of some elevated instability
/highest with westward extent/ and sufficiently moist boundary layer
conditions to support an early morning flare-up of showers.

the surface frontal zone sags south of the michigan/ohio border
through saturday morning. isentropic upglide and lingering low-level
convergence along the stalling frontal boundary will keep a low-end
chance for scattered showers or an isolated rumble of thunder
focused primarily across the southern tier of counties (m-59
southward to the ohio border) early saturday. otherwise,
significantly less supportive airmass as available instability lacks
as surface dew points scour out into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
expect decreasing cloud cover from north to south through the
afternoon as surface high pressure expands over the upper great
lakes. onshore lake-breeze components off lake huron will keep
eastern and coastal areas cooler. high temperatures more comfortably
top out in the mid-to-upper 70s saturday. high confidence then
exists in dry and benign conditions holding through the remainder of
the weekend as expansive high pressure centers directly over lower
michigan. the deep layer stability held with this environment
ensures limited cloud production, while temperatures hover near-
normal for early september.

low to mid level ridging will continue to mark conditions during the
early week period. associated deep layer stability with a very dry
profile ensures benign weather, with the incremental increase in the
mid level height field netting a very modest warming trend but with
temps still seasonable. low-level return flow around the backside of
the departing surface high pushes 850 mb temperatures back into the
+16 to +18c range by wednesday afternoon. an associated increase in
low level moisture quality likely to commence at the same time ahead
of an inbound cold front tied to a northern stream shortwave moving
across ontario. this will bring the next chance for meaningful
rainfall, followed by a more notable cooling trend directed for the
end of next week.

marine...

greatest thunderstorm potential will generally remain south of the
waterways through tonight, although an isolated storm cannot be
ruled out. otherwise, high pressure anchored over ontario will
increase influence heading into the weekend. this will bring drier
and more stable conditions. prevailing wind from the northeast may
bring a modest increase in wave action along portions of the lake
huron nearshore waters, but are expected to remain below advisory
levels at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...mr
marine.......mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.