Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
681
fxus61 kcle 202326
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
726 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

.what has changed...
made minor adjustments to slow the eastward progression of pops
on saturday. raised pops in the east on sunday. trended high
temperatures down slightly sunday and monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will drift south
across inland portions of the area late this afternoon.

2) the next stretch of active weather will come saturday with
expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening. isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts are possible. additional showers and thunderstorms will
linger across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania saturday
night and sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure is located over maryland and virginia this
afternoon with cyclonic flow extending back across northern ohio
behind a cold front. while the airmass is undergoing drying, an
agitated cu field can be seen on satellite imagery from near
canton to bowling green. scattered showers are expected along
this southward drifting boundary this afternoon with generally
isolated coverage of thunderstorms. storms should begin to
diminish or push south of the area towards 7 pm.

key message 2...
following a dry day on friday, moisture will increase ahead of
a cold front on saturday. coverage of showers will be limited on
saturday morning but expected to see considerable expansion
during the afternoon as instability develop with a surface cold
front moving east and a potent upper level trough digging across
lake michigan. slowed down the eastward expansion of pops
slightly but do expect 70-80 percent coverage shifting east
through the afternoon and evening. the upper level cold pool
with 500mb temperatures of -14 to -16c will pivot east overhead
saturday night and should maintain some coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, especially over the warm waters of lake erie.
depending on the progress of the surface front, some low level
convergence could provide an added focus across lake erie. a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast for
saturday with a low end threat of both damaging wind gusts and
large hail. in addition, if any west to east bands of showers
and thunderstorms become stationary off the lake into nw
pennsylvania then a heavy rain threat could develop.

will need to make adjustments to pops on sunday/sunday night based
on available moisture and energy moving through the trough aloft.
850mb temperatures fall to around 8c on sunday and trended high
temperatures down a degree or two for both sunday and monday. there
is some spread among the long range models with respect to the
progression of the trough on monday. surface high pressure and dry
conditions are expected on tuesday.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
mostly vfr conditions are expected through the taf period with
high pressure building into the region. clouds are clearing out
significantly with high pressure coming from the northwest. some
mvfr fog/mist is possible at kfdy and kmfd with recent rainfall
and a decoupling atmosphere. light northeast winds will be
expected through the first half of the period. winds will shift
to the southeast during the day on friday but will be extremely
light. a modified lake breeze will develop on friday afternoon,
shifting flow to the northeast for keri and kcle.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms on
saturday. non-vfr conditions may continue saturday night into
sunday in lake enhanced showers and storms across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
slightly elevated northeast winds 10-15 knots will continue
through this evening. wave heights in the western and central
basins may briefly increase to 1-3 feet. by this evening, high
pressure builds overhead allowing for winds to shift easterly to
southeasterly while decreasing to 5-10 knots friday into
saturday. ahead of an approaching low pressure system this
weekend winds will shift southwesterly on saturday. a cold front
will push east across the region saturday night into sunday with
winds turning northwesterly in the wake of the front.
northwesterly winds increase to 15-20 knots by sunday with
onshore flow likely leading to wave heights building to 2-4 feet
in the central and eastern basins sunday and sunday night.
marine headlines may be needed to end the weekend before high
pressure builds overhead early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
432
fxus63 kiwx 202357
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
757 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

.key messages...

- 30-80% chances for rain and storms arrives friday night into saturday.
highest chances in northwest ohio. the risks for severe
weather and flooding are low.

- dangerous swimming conditions expected for southeast lake
michigan beaches on saturday and sunday with high swim risks
both days.

- dry weather returns sunday and monday with below normal
temperatures and low humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 138 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

mainly dry conditions continue, however, isolated showers and storms
remain possible through sunset, especially east of i-69 in northeast
indiana and northwest ohio. a trough coming off of lake michigan and
a low departing off to our southeast in ohio should allow for a zone
of moisture convergence to set up near i-69 between now and 02z
tonight. surface observations already show northwest flow coming off
of lake michigan in northern indiana and northeast/east flow off of
lake erie in northwest ohio. visible satellite imagery already shows
scattered cumulus clouds developing in the general convergence zone
area. we have had a few widely isolated showers already today in
northwest ohio so we will have to monitor to see if spatial extent
and coverage increases through sunset. after sunset, expect light
easterly winds to persist overnight with mostly clear skies and lows
near 60 degrees.

the next chances for rain and storms comes with a cold frontal
passage on saturday. an upper level trough will dig through the
great lakes starting friday afternoon, with an attendant cold front
sweeping through the forecast area during the day saturday.
scattered rain and storms ahead of the front arrive in northwest
indiana and southwest lower michigan around 06z, gradually becoming
more numerous eastward into northwest indiana and northwest ohio as
the upper level trough amplifies during the morning and afternoon.
have maintained pops between 30-80% on saturday, with the highest
chances in northwest ohio. given a more diurnally favorable
timeframe east of i-69, a corridor of up to 1500 mucape and 25-30
kts of 0-6 km shear will support storms capable of gusty winds and
small hail, although severe weather is not expected at this time.
isolated to scattered lake effect showers may persist downwind of
lake michigan with northwest flow behind the front late saturday
night into early sunday.

high pressure builds into the great lakes and midwest regions again
by sunday. temperatures will be slightly below normal on sunday and
monday with highs in the low to mid 70s with northwest flow behind
the cold frontal passage. a few crisp nights are ahead sunday night
and monday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. with much drier
air building in, dewpoints only in the 50s will make for several
nice days! another cold front moves in wednesday with low chances
(20-30%) for rain/storms maintained.

despite pleasant weather conditions expected on sunday, it will be a
dangerous day to head to the beach. the aforementioned frontal
passage is expected to stir up southern lake michigan, generating
large waves and dangerous currents throughout the weekend.
northwest, onshore flow will allow for waves to build to 3 to 5 feet
with strong currents expected. high swim risks will be in place both
days this weekend. heed beach flags/lifeguards and stay out of the
water! a beach hazards statement will likely be needed as we get
closer to the weekend and confidence increases in the wind/wave
forecast.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 754 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

an inverted low level trough feature has been a focal point for
isolated showers across northeast indiana this evening.
additional development has largely been guided by outflow
boundaries from these showers along a weak surface based
instability axis across northeast indiana. progression of this
outflow reinforced boundary has taken favored areas for shower
development south of kfwa, and no additional showers are
expected in kfwa vicinity this evening. mostly clear skies,
lingering low level moisture, and wet ground from recent
rainfall may lead to some patchy shallow fog formation once
again early friday morning with preferred area at this time
appearing to be generally along and south of the us route 24
corridor. no changes have been made to previous taf inclusion of
mvfr vsbys at kfwa early friday morning. some patchy ifr/mvfr
low clouds are also possible before daybreak, but confidence in
cigs was too low to include at this time. a mid level trough
will track across the area on friday with some increase in mid
level clouds expected. cannot completely rule out an isolated pm
shower (< 10 percent coverage) across ne indiana given
possibility of weak sfc based instability, but we will not
likely have a focusing mechanism quite as distinct as today`s
inverted trough feature. thus, dry tafs have been maintained
this cycle. winds will remain on the light side through the
period as a sfc ridge axis builds across the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
281
fxus63 kdtx 202357
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
757 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect the area saturday.

- cooler and breezy conditions arrive sunday with lingering shower
chances.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions are expected to prevail through tonight as high
pressure moves through michigan. a easterly wind component this
evening into tonight will eventually become southerly tomorrow
afternoon while holding between 5-10 knots. mainly scattered high
clouds tonight with increasing coverage towards tomorrow evening.
ceilings should remain vfr as increasing scattered mid clouds arrive
mid-day.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast for the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

discussion...

subtle mid level ridging developing over se mi tonight is forecast
to drift across the eastern great lakes friday. associated surface
high pressure and low level anticyclonic flow will hold across the
eastern great lakes through the day friday. the influence of this
system will maintain dry weather through the next 24 to 36 hours.
much like today, there will likely be areas of diurnally driven cu
and high based clouds on friday. light sse flow in the boundary
layer and diurnal mixing will support afternoon highs into the low
80s, which has fairly good support within the probabilistic
guidance. while south flow will begin advecting a little more
instability into the region friday afternoon, model soundings
indicate a strengthening mid level cap through the day which will
prove a formidable limiting factor on convective initiation.

long wave trough amplification across the great lakes saturday will
result in mid level height falls across se mi along with the passage
of a surface low and cold front. a plume of deep layer moisture
advection ahead of this trough late friday/friday night will drive
precipitable water values to 1.4 to 1.6 inches. the forced ascent
combined with the resident moisture and diurnal instability will
support a chance of showers/thunderstorms. the model prob space is
suggestive of high chances for rain saturday, over 80 percent.
within the probabilistic guidance, median qpf is around a quarter
inch, with a half inch to three quarters inch within the 90th
percentile. the chances for severe weather continue to look limited
(marginal risk/isolated) with sb cape values forecast to range from
800 to 1400 j/kg and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values of 20-30
knots.

post frontal northwest flow will drive cooler air across the great
lakes in the wake of the front; 850mb temps will drop into the
single digits on sunday. steep low level lapse rates the cool air
aloft will contribute to a healthy diurnal cu field on sunday. this
may support a few showers; the better chances will be across the
thumb given the added moisture flux off lake huron. the cool air and
daytime cloud cover will hold high temps in the 70s. remnant
northwest flow circulating around an eastern canadian upper low will
sustain seasonally cool temperatures into early next week. a
northern stream short wave will provide the next chance for
showers/thunderstorms during the middle of next week. at this stage
in the forecast there is still ample spread among ensemble members
with respect to timing and potential rainfall amounts.

marine...

surface high pressure lingers over ontario rest of today and friday,
maintaining an easterly component to the overall light wind field.
winds then veer to the south friday afternoon as a warm front lifts
into the great lakes. dry conditions are expected through the end of
the work week, followed by increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances through the day saturday as a low and its attendant cold
front sweep across lower michigan. this low strengthens as it moves
toward new england, strengthening post-frontal northwest flow and
elevating wind gusts toward 25-30 knots both sunday and monday. peak
gustiness is anticipated sunday afternoon-evening when cold
advection is strongest. quieter pattern returns briefly tuesday
before the next system arrives middle of next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.