Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
465
fxus61 kcle 262349
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
749 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

.what has changed...
we are still expecting temperatures to warm up and feel more
like spring on monday ahead of a cold front. the next round of
soaking rainfall for the area will arrive monday night with
showers and isolated thunder. forecast confidence is increasing
for a much cooler weather pattern to develop over the great
lakes region for the end of this week through next weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) a nice warm up in temperatures will arrive on monday before
a cold front moves in monday night into early tuesday with
widespread showers and isolated thunder possible.

2) a much cooler weather pattern will likely develop over the
great lakes and ohio valley region towards the end of this
weekend and continue through next weekend. there may be the
potential for frost and temperatures dropping down to freezing
for a few nights late this week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the low stratus cloud deck is starting to slowly erode away this
mid-afternoon. a northeast flow off of lake erie today has been
helping with prolonging the low clouds over much of northern
ohio. skies have cleared out on the edges of our cwa in nwpa and
far nwoh. the expectation for the rest of the afternoon is for
the clouds to continue to scattered out with most areas seeing
some sunshine by early evening before sunset. a surface high
pressure over central quebec canada is building down into our
area this afternoon and tonight. skies will be mostly clear to
partly cloudy tonight with overnight low temps in the 40s
areawide.

southerly flow will increase tomorrow in response to the high
pressure system exiting the region and a low pressure system
that will track through the upper midwest into the western
great lakes. skies will be mostly sunny monday but high level
clouds will increase by monday evening from the west. high
temperatures will warm up nicely in the middle to upper 70s
monday afternoon. a cold front will approach from the west
monday night with showers likely and isolated thunder possible.
at this time, we are expecting the severe weather threat to
stay west of our area monday night. the thermodynamics looks
weak over out area as the cold front moves in late monday night.
we will likely see numerous showers and some general thunder
possible overnight monday into early tuesday. the actual cold
front slows down somewhat and will move through the area during
the late morning or midday on tuesday. we will keep in chance
pops on tuesday for scattered showers. we will squeeze out one
more warm day with high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s for
tuesday. another low pressure system will track across the upper
ohio valley on wednesday with more rain showers. over the 2 day
period from monday night through wednesday evening, we are
expecting total rainfall amounts to average around 1 inch for
much of the area with some locations possibly receiving a little
over an inch.

key message 2...
a big shift in the weather pattern will take shape for later
this week and bring much cooler weather through next weekend. a
large upper level trough will develop over the great lakes and
ohio valley starting wednesday and linger through next weekend.
the overall forecast will have high temperatures in the 50s
wednesday through the weekend with skies being cloudy than
clear due to the upper level trough overhead. low temperatures
will start off the 40s by midweek and towards the end of the
week dropping down into the 30s areawide for several nights. we
may have a few nights with the potential of frost and some
freezing temperatures possible too. due to the start of the
growing season, we may be looking at the need for frost and
freeze headlines later this week. there may be some rain showers
on friday with another reinforcing cold front moving through
the great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with mainly vfr to persist
through the taf period. only period of concern for non-vfr
conditions is towards the end of the taf period across the i-75
corridor (tol/fdy) with approaching rain showers, though
confidence is low on direct impacts. additional rain/t-storms
may need to be included along the i-75 corridor in the next taf
package after 0z tuesday.

winds will gradually shift from the east to northeast this
evening, 5 to 7 knots, to the southeast by mid-monday morning,
increasing to 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22
knots. will need to monitor wind trends towards the end of the
taf period, and especially after 0z tuesday in the following taf
package as some guidance is hinting at some stronger south to
southeast winds with the decaying convection.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms monday
night into tuesday. non-vfr likely again in showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a high pressure ridge exits slowly e`ward from the lake erie
region through monday. waves of 3 feet or less are expected as
winds around 5 to 15 knots veer gradually from ne`erly to
se`erly. note: patchy fog over the western and central basins is
expected to dissipate by early evening as drier air overspreads
the lake generally from the northeast.

during monday night through tuesday night, a low should wobble
nne`ward from the upper mississippi valley to hudson bay and
deepen. a warm front should sweep ne`ward across lake erie
monday night through tuesday morning and cause winds as strong
as about 15 to 25 knots to veer from se`erly to s`erly to
sw`erly. waves should build to as large as 4 to 8 feet and will
trend largest in open u.s. waters and on waters based on
forecast fetch. a small craft advisory, primarily for wind, will
likely be needed. the low`s trailing cold front should sweep
e`ward across lake erie late tuesday afternoon through tuesday
night and cause s`erly to sw`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to
veer to n`erly to ne`erly and ease steadily to around 5 to 15
knots by daybreak wednesday morning. accordingly, waves are
expected to subside steadily to 3 feet or less by daybreak.

behind the cold front, a trough should linger over lake erie on
wednesday as a secondary low along the front tracks ne`ward,
south through east of the lake, and deepens somewhat. ne`erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots should back toward nw`erly and may
flirt with 20 knots at times, especially during the pm hours.
waves should remain mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4
footers are possible. during wednesday night through friday, a
ridge should build from the north-central united states and
vicinity. winds should vary between w`erly and n`erly and mainly
be in the 5 to 15 knot range. however, winds may flirt with 20
knots at times wednesday night. waves of mainly 3 feet or less
are expected, but occasional 4 footers are possible wednesday
night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
737
fxus63 kiwx 262347
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
747 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy monday with highs near 80 degrees. scattered rain
and non-severe storms could occur around midday and into the
afternoon.

- severe weather is possible with a second round of storms later monday,
mainly between 8 pm edt monday to 2 am edt tuesday west of in
15. damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main
threats.

- heavy rainfall monday night may lead to isolated instances of
areal flooding and minor rises on area rivers.

- cooler air is ahead next week to begin may! highs only in the
50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s will be possible
by the middle to end of next week. near freezing temperatures
at night may damage early season crops and plants!

&&

.discussion...
issued at 233 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across much
of northwest and north-central indiana on monday, although
uncertainty remains. a warm front is expected to lift northward
through our area monday afternoon, with breezy southerly winds and
waa boosting highs to at least the low to mid 70s. southerly low
level moisture return from the gulf will also boost dewpoints into
the low 60s monday evening. we will be closely monitoring remnant
convection that comes out of the missouri/iowa/illinois overnight
and tomorrow morning, as where this tracks and how much it holds
together will influence the environment over our area on monday.
most hi-res model guidance brings in a midday/early afternoon round
of scattered showers and storms to our forecast area leftover from
the remnant missouri/illinois mcs to our west. given that
instability will be near zero, any storms associated with round 1
should be non-severe. this convection may disrupt the peak heating
hours and how much (if any) airmass recovery occurs monday afternoon
and evening. unfortunately, hi-res model guidance diverges a lot on
a solution for on what happens after round 1. additional development
of storms monday evening will be conditional on what occurs with
round 1. some models still bring in a potent line of strong to
severe storms in for round 2 monday evening and others depict
that round 1 completely depletes our forecast area of any severe
potential later on in the day. spc has maintained the slight
risk for severe weather mainly west of in 15 for our area, which
i do think is warranted. this is a low confidence but high
ceiling event, especially for our far western counties. even if
midday convection does stabilize our environment somewhat,
shear and helicity remain impressive monday evening. forecast
soundings point towards potential for a high shear, low cape
setup. veering wind profiles monday night yield impressive
looking hodographs, especially west of us 31. while 40-50 kts of
bulk shear is often sufficient for severe weather, some hi-res
model guidance has 70+ kts of bulk shear monday evening when the
llj ramps up. breezy southerly winds at the surface and lots of
vertical wind shear will also allow for impressive 0-1 srh
values of up to 500 m2/s2! despite a loss of instability after
sunset (only 500 j/kg sbcape), there does appear to be decent
potential for severe weather given the high magnitudes of shear
and helicity that could be present west of us 31. the main
threats will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes,
with a lesser threat for hail due to waning instability. there
is also potential for heavy rain and efficient rainfall rates
over 2"/hr. with pwats near 1.50" (which is around the 99th
percentile climatology for april 27th), ample low level
moisture, and forecast sounding depicting a deep, warm cloud
layer, flooding will be possible late in the day on monday into
monday night. total qpf across our forecast area is expected to
be between 0.50" to 1.50" by early tuesday morning. heavy
rainfall may lead to isolated instances of areal flooding and
minor rises on area rivers.

an unseasonably cool airmass will filter into the great lakes region
by the middle to end of next week as an upper level low develops
over the northeast. with dominant northerly flow, the climate
prediction center has high probabilities (50-70%) for cooler
than normal temperatures by the end of april into early may.
highs only in the 50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s
will be possible by the middle to end of next week. the growing
season has already begun for our forecast area as of mid-april.
near freezing temperatures at night may damage early season
crops and plants! frost/freeze headlines may be needed,
especially thursday and friday nights.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 745 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

an upper level short wave ejecting out of the rockies and a
developing low level jet shifting from west to east from the
central plains into the mid ms valley overnight should allow for
showers and storms to overspread central/southern il overnight
and into at least portions of central/southern in on friday.
given primary instability axis should be confined to southern
illinois/southwest indiana, confidence is low in thunder
potential as far north as terminals through most of the daytime
on monday. with potential of some weak sfc based instability
developing and possibility of small scale convective vorts
lifting across the region, did include a prob30 tsra mention
later in the afternoon. better chance of storms still appears
toward the end and just beyond this forecast valid period as
upper trough ejects across western great lakes with zone of
better pre-frontal forcing shifting across northern indiana. it
will become windy on monday in response to fairly strong low
pressure developing across western great lakes. this synoptic
setup could be conducive to a brief window of wind gusts of 40+
mph for a brief time later monday afternoon/early evening even
outside of thunderstorms, but confidence in this scenario is low
at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am monday to 11 am edt tuesday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
687
fxus63 kdtx 262241
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
641 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions through tonight.

- warming trend tomorrow with dry conditions during the day.

- showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow night into tuesday.

- stretch of below average temperatures latter half of the week.

&&

.aviation...

strong high pressure over the eastern great lakes will maintain vfr
conditions tonight through mon afternoon. with ongoing erosion of
the low cloud deck over portions of western lake erie, the chances
of any remnant clouds making inroads into metro detroit overnight as
the low level flow turns southeast is very low. the southeast
gradient will increase on monday, driving afternoon wind gusts over
20 knots.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 318 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

discussion...

deep layer stability held within existing low-mid level ridging
maintains benign weather conditions to wrap up the weekend. late day
temperatures arriving in the vicinity of average under a high degree
of insolation. upper ridge axis slides east tonight, affording an
increase in magnitude of upper level southwest flow with time. this
will initiate a respectable window of 850-500 mb warm air advection.
a dearth in available moisture ensures this process remains
inconsequential in terms of rainfall potential, but will work to
moderate the thermal profile. lows in the low to mid 40s.

substantial corridor of higher magnitude warm air advection ongoing
upstream ahead of an inbound mid level wave expected to maintain
some degree of elevated convection over the midwest monday morning.
this activity will spill eastward with time through the day, but
likely arrives locally as little more than some thicker high based
cloud and perhaps a brief shower/sprinkle, owing to unsupportive
lower level thermodynamics still held within dry/stable southeast
boundary layer flow. the advective process will lead to a meaningful
warming trend to start the week. given the projected increase noted
at 925 mb within a modestly mixed profile, highs of low to mid 70s
on target except within the immediate proximity of the colder lake
waters where temperatures will hold in the 60s.

aforementioned mid-level wave and associated cold front are
projected to sweep through the region early tuesday. organized
convective development and expansion expected throughout the midwest
by monday evening. evolution from there becomes increasingly
uncertain, but there remains a higher probability for some degree of
this activity to anchor along the warm front and arrive locally
during the early morning hours tuesday /02z-08z/. low level
instability remains virtually non-existent by this time, leaving any
remnant convective clusters as elevated and possibly diminishing in
coverage with time. while the thermodynamics are capped by the early
morning timing, magnitude of forcing as precipitable water values
near 1.25 inches suggest heavy downpours are possible. projected
rainfall generally within the .25-.50" range, locally up to .75"
possible. very brief warm sector intrusion /mid-upper 50s dewpoints/
mid-late morning tuesday before the cold front lifts through. some
model evidence exists for a secondary window for a lower coverage of
convection to develop with the frontal passage. expect a drying
trend in the wake of the front, with some clearing possible by late
afternoon. highs will hover in the low-to-mid 60s.

trailing mid level wave lifts across the ohio valley tuesday night
into wednesday. given projected trajectory at this stage, southeast
michigan could become favorably positioned for a period of stronger
mid level forcing along the northwest flank. outgoing forecast still
maintains a more conservative stance, highlighting a modest chance
of rain across mainly southern/eastern sections this period.
otherwise, broad longwave troughing to become established over
central canada, placing southeast michigan in a persistent west-to-
northwest flow pattern for the remainder of the week. occasional
bouts of pva rotating around the base of the canadian low may
trigger a stray light shower, but most areas will remain dry. mid-
level heights will gradually decline through friday. this ensures
below average temperatures will exist heading into the first weekend
of may.

marine...

high pressure holds over the region through early monday maintaining
benign marine conditions. southeasterly winds strength latter half
of monday as the next low lifts out of the central plains towards
the northern great lakes. while a 45-60kt llj develops over the
central great lakes monday night, accompanying warm advection should
promote a stable overlake thermal profile limiting mixing potential.
local probabilistic guidance continues to hold chances around 30% to
reach 34kts so have held off on a gale watch. arrival of showers and
storms late night-early tuesday does offer potential for profiles to
turn more neutral, however this set-up would warrant short-fused
special marine warnings over gale headlines. system`s cold front
crosses daytime tuesday ending storm chances as well as flipping
winds to the northwest. rapidly weakening pressure gradient on the
backedge of the low keeps these winds under 30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.