Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
426
fxus61 kcle 201804
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
204 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

.what has changed...
slightly decreased storm total rainfall amounts across portions of
central ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
evening.

2) widespread rainfall expected sunday night through monday which
may result in rises on area rivers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are
developing and will remain possible through the remainder of
this afternoon and early evening as a shortwave aloft pushes
through the region. highest coverage for showers and storms
will occur along and east of the i-71 corridor where the best
instability, albeit fairly weak at 400-700 j/kg, exists. locally
stronger but sub- severe thunderstorms may be capable of
producing isolated wind gusts of 30-40 mph and small hail.

key message 2...

widespread rainfall will overspread the ohio valley sunday night
through monday as a shortwave aloft moves across the region. at the
surface, the center of the low pressure is expected to track due
east across northern ohio on monday. this system will be moisture
rich as pwat values will range between 1.25-1.75 inches, which are
above the 90th percentile for mid/late june. overall qpf amounts
continue to decrease slightly with current storm total rainfall
amounts ranging between 0.75-1.25 inches. slightly higher amounts of
1.25-1.50 inches are possible near the i-75 corridor and along the
lakeshore. some embedded thunderstorms will be possible monday
morning, though the best instability remains south of the forecast
area. localized flooding may be possible in any convection and/or
showers/storms that train over the same area. the majority of the
forecast area remains in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall with a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for the western
third of the forecast area.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
a shortwave aloft and surface cold front will move across the
area through early this evening. this will shift southwest winds
more westerly, and focus scattered showers and a few storms
across southeastern portions of the area, possibly affecting yng
and cak. storms can produce brief ifr or lower vsby and isolated
gusty winds (up to 40kt) and small hail. this activity will
sweep off to the east this evening, leaving dry and vfr
conditions from the remainder of the tafs. southwest to west
winds this afternoon of 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt are
ongoing, becoming light (<7kt) tonight into sunday.

outlook...non-vfr likely sunday night into monday with rain.

&&

.marine...
a cold front is sweeping across the lake through this evening,
shifting winds to a west-northwest direction...generally 10-15kt
in the ohio waters and 10kt or less to the east. these winds may
briefly perk up to 15 to nearly 20kt late this afternoon into
this evening in parts of the western and central basin before
shifting more northwesterly and gradually diminishing overnight
tonight into early sunday. waves of 1 to 3 feet will generally
handle things through tonight, with the greatest chance for some
3 footers in the central basin this evening. winds gradually
flip around to the south on sunday, to the east-northeast sunday
night, and more northeast to north on sunday as weak low
pressure tracks through the northern ohio valley. winds will
become elevated 15-25kt sunday night into monday, and with the e
to n direction we`ll likely need small craft advisories and
beach hazards statements for a number of our nearshore/coastal
zones. calmer conditions return by tuesday behind this system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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256
fxus63 kiwx 201822
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
222 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- a moderate swim risk is in effect for berrien county beaches
this afternoon. waves of 2-3 ft and currents are expected and
conditions should improve into this evening.

- widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected
late sunday. most locations will receive 0.5-1.5" of rain with
pockets of 2" or more possible along and south of us-24.

- a high swim risk is expected for southeast lake michigan
beaches on monday afternoon into tuesday morning.

- highs will remain in the 70s for much of the upcoming week
with additional chances for rain mid to late week.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 132 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

not a whole lot of changes to the ongoing forecast this shift.
pretty nice spring day today with shortwave ridging rippling
through the continued cyclonic flow over the area associated
with the broad low pressure circulation over ontario, canada.

the next disturbance moving eastward out of the rockies into the
plains states overnight tonight will begin to move into the cwa
by sunday early afternoon into our western portions of the area
first before spreading north and eastward into the remainder of
the cwa through the afternoon and early evening hours. with
still a more southern track with this system the main impacts
look to be further south with the center of the circulation
moving through southern in. this will put a more easterly flow
over our area and main deformation band that will lead to mainly
light to moderate rainfall. virtually very little instability
will be present over northern in however with some better
lifting and mid level flow available over central in some
embedded thunderstorms across our far southern tier of counties
will be possible. a strong to even severe thunderstorm cannot be
totally excluded at this time. spc currently has a marginal
risk of severe storms over the southern portions of the cwa for
sunday. with a pretty juicy environment (pwats around 1.7
inches) this should be a fairly efficient rain producer.
expectations right now are about 1 to 2 inches of precipitation
for this event, perhaps a few locations may see up to 3 inches
especially if some thunderstorms move through those areas. wpc
has a slight risk for the excessive rainfall outlook for sunday
over our area. confidence is still not high that we could see
the heavier amounts so did refrain from hoisting any flood
watches to our area.

rainfall looks to begin ending from the northwest to the
southwest on monday before another break in the action with
another shortwave ridge moving into the area on tuesday before
our next shortwave disturbance moves through on wednesday. this
system looks to have a more northerly track this time and
moisture will be a bit harder to come by so not looking as
productive as this next system but will continue to monitor as
we go out in time.

highs this week still look to remain in the 70s look to at
least through friday. however, looking further out it appears
an omega type blocky pattern may develop over central canada
with broad ridging building into the central conus which looks
to bring us more summerlike weather conditions beginning next
weekend and if the block does indeed develop we could be stuck
in that mode for a bit.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1213 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

vfr through the period. west-northwest winds gusting 15-25
knots at times this afternoon will become light and variable
tonight as weak sfc ridging settles in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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250
fxus63 kdtx 201803
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
203 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible north
of i 69 this afternoon and into the early evening.

- dry for much of sunday. broader coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will develop sunday night, especially south of i-94.
heavy rainfall is possible if the low pressure system tracks farther
north.

- showers linger monday morning then dry in the afternoon and
evening.

- cooler than normal temperatures are expected through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

zonal to pseudo northwest flow will remain in place over southeast
michigan throughout much of the next 7 days leading to slightly
below normal temperatures across the region. a modest southern
stream jet impulse is forecasted to eject across the plains late
this weekend phasing with and entrance region to the upper level jet
axis over the upper midwest and great lakes.

forecast thoughts for this afternoon and early evening were provided
in prior discussions including the update. shower and thunderstorm
chances over the northern forecast area will bring the potential for
a heavy downpour and possibly some small hail.

weak upper level jetlet and potential vorticity anomaly is
forecasted to induce leeside cyclogenesis tonight invof colorado.
strong model consensus then exists that a hybrid baroclinic/mcv low
pressure system will then eject eastward through the mid mississippi
river valley late sunday afternoon and evening. some significant
details remain uncertain at this vantage point, including whether or
not the mcv will remain attached to any deeper 850-700mb thetae
axes. it remains likely that deep column, boundary layer rooted
convection will favor a track through central to southern illinois
and southern indiana based on href ensemble mean of cape. great
support for large scale ascent is expected to arrive here locally,
given the phasing of the northern stream and the
configuration/organization to the right entrance region dynamics.
details will needed to be sorted with notable and meaningful north
to south differences of most favorable 700mb and 850mb
frontogenesis. the nam and nam nest solutions are something to
monitor given the amount of qpf in the solutions (exceeding 1 inch)
for portions of far southeast michigan. additionally, the eps
dataset is very supportive of qpf amounts for southeast michigan
with the mean at dtw at over 1.00 inch and with the 90th percentile
at/above 2.50 inches. the current forecast has
categorical/widespread rain chances for areas south of the i 69
corridor sunday night. will forgo any flood watch this forecast
package and will allow for more model data. no severe weather is
anticipated with the sunday night system here in southeast michigan.

high confidence exists that shower and rain chances will end by
midday monday. subsidence and steep downward vertical motion is
forecasted after 18z which should lead to a quick clearing trend.
northeast gradient wind is forecasted which could hold on a touch
into the evening before laying down. highs monday only topping out
in the lower 70s, with temperatures lowering into the lower 60s by
midnight.

strong canadian ridge of high pressure is expected to build across
the state tuesday and early wednesday. deep pv reservoir and
troughing is shown to push eastward by wednesday reestablishign
troughing over the great lakes for the end of the week. it just
looks like a continuation of below normal temperatures at the end of
the period.

&&

.marine...

a diffuse area of high pressure will linger over the great lakes
through sunday, supporting a continuation of lighter winds. periodic
rain showers will be possible today as an upper-level disturbance
slowly moves across the region. a compact low pressure system will
through the ohio valley and southern great lakes region tomorrow
night. rain showers are expected to be concentrated across lake erie
up to lake st. clair. elevated northeasterly winds will increase
tomorrow night and persist through the daylight hours on monday. the
longer onshore fetch on lake erie will support higher waves by
daybreak monday.

&&

.hydrology...

unseasonably strong low pressure system is forecasted to eject
eastward through the mid mississippi river valley late sunday and
through portions of the ohio river valley sunday night. widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along the
northern periphery of the low pressure system and may bring heavy
rainfall. while uncertainty exists to the exact track of the heavy
rainfall, the potential exists for rainfall amounts to exceed 1 inch
across some portion of southern southeast michigan. the current
model consensus and forecast supports higher rainfall amounts south
of detroit along the ohio border. heavy rainfall and higher amounts
will be possible if the low pressure system tracks northward. if
heavy rainfall axis trends farther north, some potential for urban
flooding will exist.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 122 pm edt sat jun 20 2026

aviation...

weak surface low will continue to move through lower mi this
afternoon and early evening. this in combination with modest
instability will keep widespread cumulus developing into showers
north of the detroit taf sites. there is enough instability that the
strongest showers could produce thunder, but should be isolated
enough to leave out of the ptk, fnt and mbs tafs. for those detroit
tafs, just expect the cumulus to become broken this afternoon.
otherwise, a gusty west wind of 10-15 knots will continue through
the afternoon and early evening.

with the surface low moving farther east and the loss of diurnal
heating, expect the showers to dissipate quickly just after 00z and
the cumulus to follow between 00z and 04z. upper midwest high
pressure builds into lower mi late tonight bringing mostly clear
skies and light northwest wind. will delay fog potential until a
shallow mvfr restriction develops closer to sunrise, mainly in the
fnt to mbs area where wet ground can augment surface based moisture.

the first half of sunday will feature few-sct diurnal cumulus
development as a thickening cirrus deck moves in ahead of the next
system for mainly sunday night.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorm potential holds north of dtw
toward the northern fringe of d21 for the remainder of this
afternoon and evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......gem
hydrology....cb
aviation.....rbp


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.