Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
503
fxus61 kcle 201116
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
716 am edt tue oct 20 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through at least the
beginning of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
quite a quiescent weather pattern remains in place for the
foreseeable future. through the work week the local
area will be sandwiched between ridging aloft over the central
u.s. and troughing over the northeast. this will support general
surface high pressure, dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
ridging aloft is expected to shift east this weekend, keeping
us dry but likely allowing temperatures to trend a bit warmer.
splendid weather for outdoor fall activities is expected this
weekend. highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s will
be the general theme, though we may see some lower 70s by sunday.
inland locales will see additional opportunities for frost over
the coming nights, especially farther east. for tuesday night
into wednesday morning the greatest potential for frost looks to
be across far northeast oh and northwest pa where the growing
season has ended away from the lakeshore...though there will
likely be some frost farther west towards interior north
central oh, and we may need an advisory for at least a handful
of counties where the growing season has not been deemed "over".
will let the day shift take a better look at that potential.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with mainly vfr to
persist through the taf period. patchy fog is possible tonight
into wednesday morning and could impact tol/fdy with non-vfr
vsbys. have introduced mvfr conditions in this update,
thoughcan`t rule out ifr conditions in future packages.

winds are generally light and variable this morning, less than
5 knots. winds will favor a northeast direction this afternoon,
5 to 8 knots before becoming light and variable again tonight.

outlook...outside of overnight patchy fog, mainly vfr is expected
through saturday.

&&

.marine...
winds will shift northeast over the lake today and increase to
10-15kt, with a brief period of 15-20kt winds east of the
islands this evening. waves will increase to 1 to 3 feet this
afternoon through tonight, with a brief period of 2 to 4 footers
this evening east of the islands. conditions will be near small
craft advisory criteria for a few hours - holding off on the
headline early this morning, but will continue evaluating in
case winds/waves trend slightly higher. lighter and more
variable winds with little wave activity for wednesday and
wednesday night. north-northeast winds to around 10kt develop on
thursday and will build some chop, with winds expected to shift
more northeast and increase to 15-20kt for a time thursday night
into friday. 2-4 or 3-5 footers will likely build and a small
craft advisory may be needed, especially in the central basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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151
fxus63 kiwx 200935
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
535 am edt tue oct 20 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather persists through the entire week with
highs either side of 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain until
next week at the earliest.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 am edt tue oct 20 2026

upper flow across area east of the rockies is relatively weak as mid
level ridging and a couple surface high pressure centers pair to
keep the area dry. as the first high pressure center moves into
southeast canada from the northern great lakes, a backdoor cold
front sets up east of mi and north of oh, which may be able to
advect marine air into our east potentially setting them up for
morning fog wed am. another northern stream wave and trailing
surface high pass by to the north of the area wed through thu time
frame. because the front washes out across the area wed night,
minimal lowering of temps occurs for friday (from mid 60s to low 70s
thu to low to upper 60s fri). with the mid level ridging still
staunchly in place across the plains states and mississippi valley,
troughing in the west struggles to advance eastward and surface lows
take a north-northeasterly track into southcentral canada. so, it
could be until the first part of the next work week before we
get our next rain into the area. there are hints that the mid
level ridge finally pushes eastward at this time and this helps
some combination of a diving wave within the northern stream and
some southern stream moisture to make it up this way to provide
rain.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 533 am edt tue oct 20 2026

surface high pressure over the northern great lakes pushing east
pairs with mid level ridging to quell rain chances during the taf
period. this pattern allows prevailing east winds through the bulk
of this period. a few hours of patchy fog will be possible this
morning, but appears to be staying away from the terminals. as
a backdoor front settles east of mi and north of oh, hi- res
guidance is producing advection fog that could affect fwa wed
am. will project sbn stays out of the fog in this taf issuance.
otherwise, expect vfr conditions prevail through the rest of
the taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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551
fxus63 kdtx 200833
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
433 am edt tue oct 20 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with mild afternoon highs and cool morning lows will
persist into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

satellite imagery and in-situ observations highlight expansion of
shallow fog expanding from the saginaw bay inland due to moisture
advection from northeast flow coupled with light winds and clear
skies. fog is holding just north of kmbs but a southward expansion
remains possible prior to daybreak which would bring visibility
restrictions down to ifr-lifr. hi-res model output also highlights
the possibility of fog pushing into kfnt closer to 11-13z, but given
this timing coincides with sunrise, confidence is lower regarding
this and any subsequent visibility restrictions. any fog observed
will burn off after sunrise, leading to clear skies and light winds
for the remainder of the day.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue oct 20 2026

discussion...

an elongated sfc to mid level ridge axis extending across the great
lakes region today through wednesday will maintain the persistent
dry pattern across the forecast area. a northern stream short wave
forecast to track across northern ontario wednesday will drive a
weakening sfc cold front into the great lakes region wed night. this
frontal boundary will essentially wash out as long wave ridge
amplification takes hold across the central us thurs into friday,
resulting in rebounding mid level heights across lower mi. this will
strengthen the large low-mid level anticyclone across much of the
eastern us, the influence of which will affect se mi through saturday
sustaining dry conditions with relatively little cloud cover.

the dry ambient airmass will continue to support relatively cool
nights with ample afternoon sunshine today through saturday.
forecast mixing depths and thermal profiles remain supportive of
afternoon highs from the mid 60s to lower 70s today through
thursday. sfc high pressure is forecast to strengthen to 1035mb
across quebec by friday. this may drive a slightly cooler airmass
across the eastern great lakes, warranting a little lower forecast
highs on friday. with the center of the sfc high pressure already
centered across ne ontario and quebec, light easterly winds off the
lakes will contribute to some enhanced fog potential. there are some
indications in the hi res suite for some degree of fog expansion
across the thumb this morning. a more notable moisture push tonight
into wed morning may allow a more expansive advective fog event off
lake erie, with the stronger easterly flow possibly supporting the
better fog chances farther west toward adrian and ann arbor.

there is indication in ecwmf and gfs ensemble members that a forecast
deeper upper wave tracking across central canada sunday into early
next week will break down the ridging across the great lakes,
suggesting a possible pattern change for next week.

marine...

the influence of high pressure sustains benign marine conditions
today and through the week. an uptick in easterly wind occurs across
northern lake huron this morning as the center of the high pressure
strengthens just north of georgian bay, with gusts up to 20 kt. wind
weakens by this afternoon then gradually veers to southwest by
wednesday afternoon. a dry cold front washes out overhead wednesday
night with another broad area of high pressure then taking residence
through the end of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...sc
marine.......tf


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