Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
379
fxus61 kcle 081112
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
612 am est mon dec 8 2025

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.synopsis...
high pressure will move through the region today. a
series of low pressure systems will move through the region for the
middle of the week with a weaker low on tuesday, followed by a
stronger low on wednesday. high pressure will briefly return for
thursday before more unsettled weather for the weekend.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
cold northerly flow ahead of high pressure has allowed for some
clouds and light snow showers to develop with some lake effect off
lakes huron and erie. the amount of moisture in the region with the
surface high approaching is very limited so any impacts are just
some clouds and a couple flakes in the air but do not expect any
accumulations this morning. for the daytime hours today into
tonight, expecting dry weather across the region with high
pressure in place. temperatures will continue to be below normal
with this surface high bringing more cold air to the region over
a light snow pack. temperatures tonight will be in the teens to
upper single digits. with just some light winds, wind chills
could be near to just below zero in spots.

&&

.short term /tuesday through thursday night/...
the middle of this week continues to appear active with a
sequence of troughs and a pair of low pressure systems expected
to move through the great lakes. for tuesday, an initial
shortwave will dig into the region and support a weaker low
pressure system through the northern great lakes. the forecast
area will be on the periphery of this system with a warm front
passing through the area on tuesday afternoon and evening. there
will be some snow for ne ohio and nw pa with the warm front with
an inch or so possible in nw pa by tuesday evening.

for tuesday night, the area will be in a warm advection
pattern, as the next, stronger upper trough and low pressure
enter for wednesday. precipitation will enter tuesday night with
this system and with some warmer temperatures in the 30s to
lower 40s, expect a transition to rain for most of the forecast
area with the onset of this system. some snow may stick around
nw pa, where another inch of snow could accumulate. on wednesday
afternoon, this system will pass to the east and extend a cold
front across the area, allowing for rain to change to snow for
all locations and some minor accumulations will be expected
across the board. some lake enhancement will allow for another
inch or two of snow in ne oh/nw pa by wednesday night. another
concern for the tuesday night through wednesday night period
will be winds as a strong low level jet will move through the
region with the low pressure system and cold front. wind gusts
as strong as 40-45 mph are possible on land and there is
potential for a wind advisory, depending on the low pressure
system track.

for thursday, there still is uncertainty on how much snow will
be in the region behind these systems. the end track of the
wednesday system will determine how long a trough will remain
over lake erie to allow for some lake enhanced snow into the
eastern half of the area before high pressure and a low level
ridge build into the region and allow for snow chances off lake
erie to end. will maintain a generic mix of pops across the area
until these features can be resolved. overall, not expecting too
much snow for thursday.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
the long term forecast will continue the cold and unsettled
pattern that has been featured so far in december. there are
some model disagreements on timing and strength of systems.
however, in general, a low pressure system will move through the
great lakes region on friday, ushering another reinforcing shot
of cold air across the local area while allowing for some
widespread light snow. behind this system, some component of a
surface trough will set up over the region and allow for lake
effect snow for saturday and sunday with the best chance for
accumulations in the traditional areas of ne ohio and nw pa. if
some of the colder model solutions like the 00z gfs can be
realized, there would be some potential for some significant
lake effect snows in the great lakes region. however, there is
too much spread in the guidance at this time to say anything
more than that the lake effect machine will be going this
weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
mainly vfr ceilings and conditions are expected today through
tonight. high and mid level clouds will drifting through our
skies but mainly above 10k feet. winds will be from the
northeast to east today 5 to 10 knots. winds will become
southerly tonight 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr is expected again with snow on tuesday which
will gradually transition to rain by wednesday morning. rain
will transition back over to snow wednesday evening through
thursday. gusty winds are likely tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions on lake erie will be very unsettled
and rough throughout this week, especially tuesday through
wednesday night. high pressure is currently building over the
great lakes region this morning. winds are starting out from the
northeast 15 to 20 knots this morning with waves of 3 to 5
feet. there is a small craft advisory through mid morning for
the central and eastern nearshore marine zones. winds and waves
will relax later today becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots and 1 to
3 feet. winds will become southerly tonight 10 to 15 knots and
waves 1 to 3 feet.

a low pressure system will track across the upper great lakes
region on tuesday with an increasing southerly flow 15 to 30
knots and waves building 5 to 8 feet in the nearshore zones,
higher in the open waters. additional small craft advisories
will be likely on tuesday. there is some potential of winds
approaching gales on tuesday in the open water. marine conditions
will further deteriorate tuesday night into wednesday ahead of
stronger low pressure system tracking through the great lakes
region. southwest gales 35 to 40 knot increasing likely tuesday
night through wednesday for most of the central and eastern
basin of lake erie. waves will further increase 8 to 14, if not
higher in the open water tuesday night into wednesday. a strong
cold front will switch the winds from the northwest 15 to 25
knots wednesday night into thursday and waves 4 to 8 feet.
additional sca will likely be needed wednesday night through
thursday. another strong cold front will move across the lake
friday into saturday with gusty northwest winds 15 to 30 knots
and higher waves. additional marine headlines will be likely
late this week into the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
lez144>147.
small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lez148-
149.

&&

$$

synopsis...sefcovic
near term...sefcovic
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
817
fxus63 kiwx 081133
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
633 am est mon dec 8 2025

.key messages...

- cold wind chills tonight from -1f to +5f.

- seasonably mild temperatures with periods of snow and a rain
mix into early wednesday. travel impacts appear limited.

- turning very cold again late this weekend with highs only in
the teens.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 415 am est mon dec 8 2025

the duration of the cold airmass has reached day 11 today (since
november 27th). the fort wayne temperature has averaged only
18.8 degrees so far this month with has been an incredible 15.5
degrees below normal. the enso pattern is "...transitioning
from a weak la nina..." into 2026 per cpc update. given this
pattern and given persistence, another arctic air intrusion is
expected to arrive wednesday. the temperatures early this
morning have been dipping below zero once again. with this
pattern and airmass in place, the forecast area is on the
threshold of this next cold intrusion. rwis data/traffic wise
indicated pavement temperatures were in the teens. given the
low sun angle for december, the incredibly large "cold anomaly"
ongoing ground temps and current snow cover, any snow or ice
melting on roads should be limited through tuesday.

these cold ground conditions will provide an interesting
unfolding of the travel conditions tuesday night into wednesday
as surface air temperatures rise briefly above freezing. some
icing is possible on roads before the pavement temperatures rise
briefly above freezing on rural and secondary roads. readings
should drop below freezing wednesday evening and stay well
below freezing into early next week. chances form mainly light
snow will persist through the weekend as several weak
disturbances top the upstream ridge and race southeast into the
forecast area per 00z gfs. heavy snow is not expected, but there
could be travel issues given the light to possibly moderate
snow falling on secondary and rural roads.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 620 am est mon dec 8 2025

vfr conditions expected at the terminals through the period,
with mainly mid-high level clouds to contend with until late
tonight at ksbn when the next system approaches the area. e-ne
winds this morning shifting to the s-sw late tonight, with a
tightening pressure gradient towards the 6-12z timeframe-
especially at ksbn. ssw winds at around 13kts will may
intermittently gust to around 21kts. most of the guidance holds
off on snowfall until after 12z, however a few of the high res
solutions suggest around 10-12z. have a prob 30 group for 9z
onward, with ceilings down to around 3500ft possible (quickly
deteriorating to mvfr beyond 12z). kfwa will see a slight uptick
in winds towards 8-12z, but mvfr ceilings won`t reach the
terminal until probably 15z tue am (just beyond the taf period).


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
840
fxus63 kdtx 081151
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
651 am est mon dec 8 2025

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures persist today with morning wind chills
near or below zero.

- isolated lake effect snow showers along the southern lake huron
coastline through the morning hours.

- active wintry stretch commences late tonight or early tuesday
morning with additional opportunities for accumulating snow, ranging
from 0.3-1.5 inches.

- areas of light freezing rain/drizzle possible during the day
tuesday as temperatures rise to around the freezing mark.

- snow then briefly returns tuesday night before changing over to
liquid rain for most of southeast michigan; areas along/north of m-
46 could maintain all snow leading to accumulations in excess of 3
inches.

- colder air returns wednesday evening with a bit of additional
light snow possible, followed by the next arctic airmass heading
into the weekend.

- periodic lake effect snow chances exist from thursday onward.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions generally prevail through the taf period with two
windows to see strato-cu development near or slightly below 3kft.
this first will be through the late morning to early afternoon when
diurnal heating aids in some boundary layer cloud development, with
any early day clouds mixing out in the late afternoon to early
evening hours. some weak convergence could help sustain some
lingering strato-cu across kptk-kfnt into the evening. there is a
secondary window for when winds veer southerly, which will push low-
end clouds derived from lake erie north across the metro terminals
up through kptk. confidence in the sustainment of any lake erie
derived clouds as they traverse north is low. otherwise winds remain
light today under 10 knots.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this morning and again late
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 421 am est mon dec 8 2025

discussion...

chilly start today with readings in the single digits, outside of
metro detroit and the lake huron coastline. initial wind chills will
not deviate much compared to temperatures given light to calm
gradient winds. sub-700 mb anticyclone passes over lower michigan
today leading to a layer of subsidence between 3 kft and 12 kft with
a maximum 35c dewpoint depression. meanwhile, moisture spills in
aloft along a low amplitude shortwave trough, leading to a canopy of
high clouds as lower column trajectories across the huron basin
generate patches of stratocumulus, downwind of the southern coast.
given the shallow mixed-layer and 925 mb temperatures around -10c,
daytime highs will struggle to break much beyond the mid-upper 20s
while the resident arctic airmass holds (10-15 degrees below
seasonal normals).

the surface pressure field transitions from high pressure to low
pressure dominant overnight as a clipper digs into the upper
midwest. gradient flow strengthens, starting out southerly, and
foreshadowing the consequential warm sector arrival within the
occlusion of the primary (southern) surface reflection. a plume of
pacific moisture associated with this circulation accompanies the
vortmax promoting the quick onset of nocturnal precipitation. the
elevated warm front modifies the lower levels, setting up an
inversion between the 2-6 kft agl layer. initial precipitation falls
as snow between 07z and 11z (from west to east). in spite of
nocturnal warming, surface temperatures should be plenty cold for
accumulation into the early morning hours on tuesday. dgz depths are
sufficient, but not much qpf to work with, so expect only a coating
to an inch. interesting note about the 07z nbm snowfall percentiles
through tuesday (18z). quite a big difference between the 50th and
75th percentiles, with 0.3-1.0 inches for the former, and 1.0-2.5
inches for the latter. outgoing forecast falls between the two
ranges. ensured a minimum accumulation of around a quarter inch, but
allowed for over an inch for the thumb where mixed precipitation
chances will be lower.

precipitation type concerns arise during the daylight hours tuesday
as forecast soundings reveal issues with dgz depth and duration of
saturation. after the initial burst of morning snow, the surface to
10 kft layer warms above -10c and begins to dry out (down to 5 kft)
upon increasing zonal flow. at the same time, the omega sign
reverses leading to subsidence within the mid-levels. this extends
to ice nucleation problems limiting snow generation aloft. higher
potential exists for an all-snow scenario north of i-69 which is
where the higher daytime qpf should fall. as for the southern half
of the forecast area, a mix of low slr (wet/fine snow) and freezing
drizzle could lead to a thin glaze of ice, generally atop existing
snowpack. temperatures will be near/above freezing late afternoon
and evening, so ice accretion will be more questionable on other
surfaces. high temperatures arrive around sunset.

the next vortmax and 985 mb surface low arrive tuesday night into
wednesday as the active quick-hitting pattern holds. temperatures
will be slow to drop below freezing early tuesday night as the next
round of precipitation gets underway. latest model data shows a
similar progression with snow to start before switching over to
primarily rain late tuesday night or early wednesday morning.
precipitation type differences exist between the northern and
southern parts of the cwa with a much lower likelihood for a liquid
transition to the north. higher snowfall totals are therefore
predicted along/north of m-46 where precipitation should continue
exclusively as snow all day wednesday. winter weather advisory
considerations will need to be made for the northern counties in
subsequent forecast updates. kept inherited nbm snowfall with totals
in the 3-5 inch range. further south, drying in the mid and upper
levels ensures a period of cold low stratus rain until midday. once
the system`s cold front swings through, expect a flip back to snow
across southeast michigan for the foreseeable future. additional
accumulations will be lighter along the back end of the event
wednesday and into thursday with temperatures dropping below normal
overnight.

the colder post-frontal airmass works in concert with periodic
trajectories for sufficient fetch for some lake effect snow chances
through the end of the workweek. some evidence exists for a third
clipper on friday, but positioning within the mean flow is
questionable as it would pertain to the local area. could get some
synoptic driven snow if things fall into place. the next release of
arctic air remains on track for arrival by saturday. 850 mb
temperatures could drop below -20c as colder than normal
temperatures lock-in for the weekend.

marine...

northerly winds continue to decrease this morning as high pressure
settles over the central great lakes, leading to light winds today,
but shifting to the southwest and then ramping up this evening.

still looking at brief southwest gales possible late tonight into
tuesday morning as low pressure tracks through the northern great
lakes. the strongest winds looking to be over saginaw bay/central
lake huron. snow will likely cause some precip drag, which should
help limit the magnitude and duration of any gales that develop.

a larger and stronger low pressure system is then on track to move
through lower michigan tuesday night into wednesday producing
widespread snow and even rain over lake
st. clair and lake erie. the southwest low level jet ahead of the
looks to be very strong, and low level profiles do not appear to
warm quick enough to stabilize the near water surface. thus, it is
looking like increasing chance of gales of western lake erie, with
potential to briefly reach aoa 40 knots.

rush of cold air behind the passage of the low will then support
strong northwest winds late wednesday and wednesday evening.
isolated, brief gusts to gales will be possible,
but the pressure gradient quickly relaxes by thursday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.