Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
985
fxus61 kcle 081739
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
139 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

.what has changed...
a marginal risk for severe weather has been added across
northwest ohio and lake erie for late thursday.

&&

.key messages...
1) tranquil conditions expected until later thursday.

2) showers and thunderstorms are expected at times late thursday
through friday. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a
few storms to produce damaging wind gusts over northwestern
portions of the area thursday evening. locally heavy rainfall is
also possible with some storms late thursday into friday.

3) a period of drier weather with limited precipitation chances
is expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
brief ridging surface and aloft today into early thursday. for
today, will be on the lookout for patchy fog first thing this
morning. a mainly dry and somewhat warm day is expected today
with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s (slightly cooler in
the far northeast, perhaps touching 90 in toledo). can`t rule
out a stray shower or storm over the hills of northwest pa this
afternoon, but that should be it. quiet weather persists tonight
as any showers/storms with a weak ohio valley shortwave stay to
our south. lows will mainly settle in the 60s with perhaps just
a bit of patchy fog in the usual inland valleys overnight.

key message 2...
unsettled weather returns late thursday into friday as a cold
front gradually approaches and crosses the area. a good portion
of thursday will remain dry. a shortwave tracking through the
upper ohio valley will spark scattered showers/storms that may
affect far eastern ohio and inland northwestern pa during the
afternoon. otherwise, convection will likely develop closer to
the approaching cold front from lower mi into northern in during
peak heating hours on thursday, with a shortwave moving across
the southern great lakes during the afternoon and evening
encouraging this development. this activity will likely spread
towards northwest oh and lake erie late thursday afternoon or
evening. it is somewhat uncertain if this activity can progress
east-southeast across more of the area later thursday evening as
it begins outrunning the front, though the southern reaches of
lift associated with the aforementioned shortwave and a modest
but moist west-southwesterly low-level jet may allow activity to
maintain across the area thursday evening into thursday night.

the front itself slowly crosses lake erie late thursday night or
early friday, and then gradually sags across the area through
friday afternoon or early evening before clearing. there are
some hints that convection may re-develop along the front over
or near lake erie late thursday night or early friday morning.
this is not as confident, but either way there will likely be a
blossoming of showers and storms along and south of the front
during the day friday as we see heating of the moist pre-frontal
airmass. shower/storm chances will decrease from north to south
friday afternoon and evening as the front clears the area.

in terms of severe weather potential, it is overall on the lower
side with this system. the spc has included northwest oh and
lake erie in a day 2 marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated
damaging wind gusts late thursday. 20-25 knots of deep-layer
shear and a strongly heated and mixed low-level airmass could
support loose convective organization and cold pool development,
which can support the marginal damaging wind risk. otherwise,
the environment features marginal and skinny instability
profiles and overall limited wind shear, which argues against a
more significant severe weather threat. the environment does
become conducive to efficient rain rates with any convection
late thursday into friday as precipitable water values climb to
near 1.80", with warm mid-levels supporting skinnier instability
profiles. a modest west-southwest low-level jet feeding into the
sagging west-east oriented cold front could also support a
little bit of training. while coverage and placement of
convection becomes more uncertain thursday night into friday,
will need to keep in mind the potential for an isolated heavy
rain and flash flooding risk. the wpc does have a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall/flash flooding thursday into friday.

key message 3...
the late week front may still be close enough by to maintain a
low risk for showers or a storm in our far southern counties on
saturday. otherwise, high pressure builds into the southern
great lakes through the weekend, providing for a more prolonged
period of tranquil conditions. strong ridging is expected to
build over the plains late this weekend into early next week.
northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of this ridge will
become established across the area, though dry conditions
associated with continued surface high pressure should limit
the potential for convection to spill in from the northwest
through monday and tuesday. a warming trend is expected early
next week as said ridge tries expanding to the east, but there
is uncertainty over how quickly troughing over new england gets
kicked out which will affect our temperatures.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
patchy mvfr ceilings are being observed across the mahoning
valley this afternoon as diurnal cu have developed. these
heights should continue to lift this afternoon, leaving all
terminals in vfr conditions for much of the period. the
exception to this will be kmfd, kcak, and kyng which may once
again see a mix of fog/low stratus that impacts terminals
between 09z and sunrise. with moisture gradually diminishing,
confidence is not as high as prior days so opted to handle the
potential with a tempo. light and variable winds are expected to
continue through thursday morning before increasing to 5-10
knots from the west-southwest by late morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms
thursday afternoon through saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected to persist across lake erie
through the weekend. high pressure today and tomorrow will keep
winds from the southwest at 5-10 knots and waves in the
nearshore below 2 feet. thursday night, a cold front will sag
south of the lake marking a shift to west-northwest winds. there
is a potential for scattered thunderstorms during the evening
hours which may locally enhance winds and waves, but widespread
conditions should remain calm. the cold front continues to push
south on friday as high pressure returns from the north over the
lake. winds will gradually shift to northeasterly at 10-15 knots
on saturday and sunday afternoons with waves in the western
basin building to 1-3 feet. overnight winds will remain calm.
there are no anticipated marine headlines at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
140
fxus63 kiwx 081753
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
153 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

.key messages...

- quiet today with highs in the mid/upper 80s.

- thunderstorms are likely thursday evening and overnight.
isolated severe storms and heavy rain are possible with the
best chances south of us-30.

- low chances for a few storms friday and saturday but turning
dry and hot again next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 151 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

the main forecast concern over the next 24 to 48 hours continues to
be the increased potential for convection w/ the passage of a weak
mid-level short wave from thursday evening through friday am. little
has changed w/ regard to the overall forecast thinking as confidence
has increased in a more southeastward trajectory of the short wave,
leaving the bulk of our cwa with very meager instability/shear
profiles while the most ripe theta-e air mass (and better wind
profiles) remain well to the south. still think the focus area will
remain south of us-30, but still some uncertainty here w/ mesoscale
influences. as such, not comfortable trending pops downward at this
point even though it seems central and southern il/in may be in a
more favorable position. there remain some hints at a nocturnal mcs
tracking across the region overnight, possibly impacting a set of
our southern zones. would anticipate heavy rain and localized
flooding to be the primary hazard for this event, but a couple
strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. /hammer

previous discussion (issued at 138 am edt wed jul 8 2026):

another tranquil weather day today as broad mid/upper level ridging
and low level theta-e sink remain centered directly over our cwa.
some patchy fog is possible this morning but limited near-surface
moisture and some clouds in the se will keep coverage and density in
check. highs today likely very similar to yesterday though perhaps a
degree or two warmer given some subtle waa and airmass modification
under strong july sun. lows tonight only in the mid/upper 60s due to
slowly increasing low level moisture and a slightly warmer afternoon.

main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential thu evening/
overnight. a weak (convectively modified) midlevel shortwave will
approach the area thu evening. a modest increase in low level sw
flow ahead of this wave will bring better moisture into the region
but it`s worth noting far better theta-e surge remains focused over
central and southern il/in. midlevel lapse rates remain paltry and 0-
1km mlcape values likely struggle to get much above 1000 j/kg.
wind/shear profiles are also light with only around 20 kts of flow
at 850mb and 0-6km bulk shear values are 25-30 kts at best. these
parameters are marginally supportive of a few strong/severe storms.
however, expect coverage of strong storms to remain low given weak
mid/upper level support for upward ascent and better moisture
convergence focused to our south. the best chances for a few strong
storms currently appear to be roughly 22-04z south of us-30 but that
could change over the next 24-36 hours. will also have to keep an
eye on the overnight hours as some solutions send an mcs through
central il/in late thu night into fri morning that could clip our
southern zones with some heavy rain. still think better chances for
this will be just south of our area along the main moisture gradient
but confidence isn`t high and will watch this closely over the next
few forecast cycles.

the rest of the forecast is mainly quiet. a few sct storms will be
possible again late friday and perhaps on sat. friday`s chances will
be dependent on exact timing and evolution of potential morning mcs
but suspect a return to dry/stable ne flow behind this wave will
keep most of the area dry for most of this time. again, best chances
for a stray shower/storm will be south of us-30. no severe weather
expected given even more marginal instability and shear profiles.

large/strong (600+ dam) midlevel ridge then expected to develop over
the central conus early next week and likely nose into our region at
some point. still some disagreement here with gfs keeping the ridge
just to our west and allowing a backdoor cold front midweek while
ecmwf (and to a lesser extent the canadian) bulldoze the ridge into
our region leaving us hotter and drier. slight preference for the
latter but overall no changes to the concensus initialization at
this time. /agd

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 107 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

vfr conditions will prevail through the period. a few fair
weather cu this afternoon and very high cirrus. mid level clouds
will start to increase on thursday morning in advance of the
next weather system. light southwest winds will also start to
increase on thursday, but will generally remain around 10 kts
or less.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight cdt tonight for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer/agd
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
070
fxus63 kdtx 081806
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
206 pm edt wed jul 8 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance of showers and ordinary thunderstorms toward the
tri cities and northern thumb tonight.

- thunderstorms spread southward while increasing coverage and
intensity thursday and thursday night. an isolated damaging wind
gust and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards in
thunderstorms.

- dry weather with near normal temperatures settle in friday through
the weekend.

- a heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+
degrees).

&&

.aviation...

diurnal cumulus field based from 4-6 kft agl has filled in this
afternoon with periods of sct-bkn coverage, amidst a deepening
boundary-layer. the high pressure influence preserves vfr conditions
through the rest of today, for all southeast michigan terminals.
winds remain light, aob 10 knots, generally holding from the west-
southwest. lighter overnight winds trend toward calm, late. a slow
moving frontal boundary will drift south across southern lower
michigan on thursday leading to showers and thunderstorms. at this
time, only have enough confidence that mbs and fnt will get showers
and storms before 18z thursday. did add prob30 groups to establish
an initial onset time for those terminals, with an earlier
introduction of rain for mbs. high degree of uncertainty with
overnight potential for perhaps several rounds of showers/storms
glancing mbs.

d21/dtw convection...scattered thunderstorms are possible as early
as 17z thursday afternoon, but are more likely to arrive/develop
closer to 19z. two or three total rounds of storms are possible
before friday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon.

* medium for thunder thursday afternoon and/or evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am edt wed jul 8 2026

discussion...

weak high pressure maintains control of conditions in se mi while
shifting toward the atlantic coast and se states today. after areas
of fog, morning sun allows full daytime heating into pockets of
cumulus for the afternoon. light sw wind then helps temperatures
finish near 90, a few degrees above normal for early july.

not far to the nw is the next cold front focusing showers/storms
along and ahead of it into the northern great lakes. consensus of
the new 00z regional/global deterministic models and hi-res
ensembles shows activity still north of mbs early this evening. this
assumes the ongoing upper midwest convection fades on schedule by
early afternoon, before the next round of surface based storms
develop farther west again during peak heating. the front and low
level moisture axis extend roughly from the straits into the central
plains late this afternoon ahead of the surface wave also on
schedule to ripple along the frontal zone tonight. the low amplitude
short wave and surface reflection delay the southward progress of
the front which is already subject to a mostly zonal large scale
mid/upper level configuration on the south fringe of the northern
stream westerlies. this timing limits shower/storm potential to the
tri cities and northern thumb later tonight and thursday morning, a
trend represented adequately in the nbm data.

slow southward progress of the front is also a consistent theme in
the latest model solutions for thursday and thursday night as the
boundary remains on the southern fringe of the northern stream
westerlies across canada. very slow progression of the long wave
pattern nudges the front southward into a favorable position to
focus convection across southern lower mi, especially during peak
heating in the afternoon and evening. predictability is low on
individual low amplitude short waves and/or mcvs, however the front
and leading moisture axis with moderate zonal flow aloft still
provide a favorable storm environment. href and refs mean surface
based cape are in good agreement with forecasts in the 1000-1500
j/kg range and with 0-6 km westerly bulk shear near 30 knots
adequate for low end multicell clusters capable of an isolated
damaging wind gust in line with the spc day2 marginal risk. however,
locally heavy rainfall may end up being the primary hazard as the
storm environment carries pw in the 1.5 to 2 inch range and
considering the slow pace of frontal passage.

the northern stream westerlies amplify just enough to build high
pressure over northern ontario into the northern great lakes early
friday. this pushes the front south of the ohio border after some
lingering showers during the morning. slightly cooler and less humid
air gains ground in the afternoon and especially friday night when
temperature guidance offers lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. a
lengthy period of dry weather follows for the weekend as the
northern ontario surface high builds into lower mi with temperatures
near or slightly above normal through sunday. a new round of heat is
then on track to increase over the great lakes as the mid/upper
level ridge builds over the central states. it is trending toward a
better position to block gulf/atlantic humidity, however a warming
trend appears solid for high temperatures returning into the lower
and mid 90s during the early to middle part of next week.

marine...

the high pressure system that was over the great lakes the last
several days will wash out across the appalachia region today which
veer wind direction to the south and southwest. a weak pressure
gradient will maintain light winds while conditions remain dry for
most locations, outside of some rain shower chances across the
northern great lakes today and tonight. a cold front will then move
through the region thursday which will bring scattered to numerous
rain showers along with some embedded thunderstorms. lingering rain
and thunderstorm chances will be possible on friday across the
southern great lakes before high pressure builds back in, providing
dry weather and light winds through the weekend.

hydrology...

a slow moving cold front settles through southern lower michigan
thursday and thursday night serving as the focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms, mainly thursday afternoon and evening,
with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. rainfall totals
averaging around 0.5 inch are most likely with a chance of near 1
inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. the slow
movement of the front could also produce more than one round of
thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within
a few hours time. flooding potential in this scenario is still
limited to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of urban and
other prone areas. showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers
into friday morning and then comes to an end friday afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...bt
marine.......am
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.