Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
730 pm edt wed apr 1 2026

.what has changed...
residual flooding on area streams and rivers due to recent
heavy rainfall will continue into tonight, lingering into
friday. additional rainfall is expected through tonight which
may slow down the water runoff through our local drainage
basins. an active and unsettled weather pattern will continue
through the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) an active storm track will continue across the midwest and
great lakes region through this weekend. there will be a series
of frontal boundaries oscillating southward as a cold front and
northward as a warm front tonight through saturday night.

2) a strong cold front will move through the region saturday
evening which could bring the potential for another round of
strong to severe storms. a colder weather pattern will move in
behind the front sunday into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
our weather pattern will remain unsettled and stormy at times
today through saturday night. the latest upper level weather
charts shows a large ridge of high pressure holding firmly over
off the east coast and a trough across the western and central
u.s. this weather pattern and setup will not change much until
later this weekend.

the cold front that recent came through the area is now down
across southern ohio. this frontal boundary will stall out near
the ohio river this evening before it starts to lift back
northward late tonight and thursday morning as a warm front. we
have a moist southwesterly flow overhead in the mid and upper
levels that will continue to advect in moisture to interact with
a series of frontal boundary over the next few days. the over
running flow over the stalling front across the ohio valley will
bring additional chances for showers and isolated thunder
possible for the rest of today into tonight. there should be a
gradual decrease in pops late this evening. but as the warm
front starts to lift north late tonight into early thursday
morning, pops will increase again for most of north central and
northwest ohio. scattered showers are expected with an isolated
thunderstorm or two possible by early thursday morning.
organized severe weather is not expected tonight or tomorrow
morning, but any additional rainfall on top of soggy ground
conditions may delay or slow down the drainage of flood waters.
temperatures tonight will hold steady in the upper 30s to low
40s for the rest of the afternoon into tonight. some patchy fog
may be possible tonight, especially as the warm front starts to
lift back northward early thursday morning.

the warm front will lift through thursday. a warm southerly
flow will bring back temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
thursday afternoon. the high-res forecast guidance shows a few
isolated to widely scattered showers and general t`storms may
pop up around the area thursday afternoon into the evening. a
low pressure system will track through the great lakes thursday
night and try to move a cold front into our area. the setup for
severe weather thursday will stay mostly west of our local area.
the cold front will move into nwoh late thursday evening, the
overall dynamics and support for organized convection will
diminish as showers and storms move into the i-75 corridor of
western ohio. spc as the i-75 corridor and westward into nwoh in
a marginal (level 1 out of 5 threat) for seeing a couple strong
to severe storms. if the convection can remain organized into
nwoh, the main severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts
and localized heavy downpours. the cold front will lose support
for moving southeastward across our local area late thursday
night/early friday morning. this front will briefly stall out
nearby across northern ohio and nwpa on friday before it lifts
back northward as a warm front friday night. most of the area
will remain spring like on friday with temperatures in the 70s.
additional widely scattered showers and isolated thunder will
remain in the possible friday into friday night with the
oscillating frontal boundary in the area before it lifts back
out as a warm front.

the next weather system that will bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms across the region will arrive late
saturday. a strong upper level trough will swing out from the
central plains and into the great lakes region on saturday. a
low pressure system will track through the great lakes late
saturday into saturday night with a trailing strong cold front.
we will be warm and breezy ahead of the cold front and storm
system on saturday. high temperatures will easily reach the
middle to upper 70s with a few spots possibly reaching 80
degrees. while it is still 3 days out until this weather system
impacts the area, medium range forecast guidance does show some
potential for severe weather ahead of the cold front saturday
evening. we will monitor forecast trends and that potential over
the next couple of days. additional localized heavy rainfall
will again be possible late saturday into saturday night which
could cause another isolated flooding threat.


key message #2:
after the strong cold frontal passage saturday night, we have a
big weather pattern change that will be colder and not feeling
so spring like for the later half of the weekend into early next
week. a large upper level trough will develop over the great
lakes and ohio valley regions sunday through the middle of next
week . below average temperatures along with off and on
scattered chances for some light rain showers and light snow
showers from moisture coming off the great lakes underneath the
cold trough. generally highs in the 40s and 50s and overnight
low temps in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
currently in ifr ceilings this evening that will persist for
much of the front end of the forecast. the bulk of the light
rain is finally going to be moving out over the first few hours
of the taf, and left with only isolated rain chances during the
early part of the overnight period. a warm front then comes
through late tonight into early morning thursday with another
batch of showers, and used tempo for this in some cases. only
expecting mvfr visibilities with this, but ceilings should
remain ifr. warm front passes to the north, and should get
dramatic improvements as low stratus dissolves/lifts fairly
rapidly to vfr and rain chances end.

winds northeast winds with some gusts this evening become
easterly overnight, then southerly behind the warm front
thursday, with the exception of eri where winds will be
southeasterly in the afternoon.

outlook...additional periods of non-vfr conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms late thursday into thursday night.
non-vfr possible on friday through saturday night with rain and
low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
main change to the forecast was to slightly increase the northeast
winds (18 to 20 knots) across lake erie this evening into thursday
morning which has resulted in the issuance of a small craft advisory
for much of the lake. conditions will improve across the lake
thursday afternoon as a warm front lifts north, shifting flow back
towards the south to southwest, 15 to 20 knots. elevated south to
southwest flow will persist into friday afternoon. otherwise, the
next period of concern will be on sunday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 25 knots. a small craft advisory will likely be
needed on sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm edt thursday for lez143>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...26
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
747 pm edt wed apr 1 2026

.key messages...

- additional rain and isolated thunderstorms tonight will
worsen any ongoing flooding. however, the heaviest rain is
forecast to be west of indiana state route 15.

- breezy on thursday with a 60% to 80% chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon. confidence is low in
severe weather occuring, but heavy rain, damaging wind gusts
and a tornado are the primary hazards.

- additional showers and thunderstorms friday and saturday;
remaining warm.

&&

.update...
issued at 738 pm edt wed apr 1 2026

steady rainfall has shifted east of the area, with a blossoming
area of light rain/drizzle oriented west to east from knox to
our office and towards defiance. this appears to be associated
with lingering low level moisture and some decent low level
isentropic lift well ahead of the warm front. added some drizzle
earlier to the forecast and will watch trends to see if this
needs to be expanded. otherwise, we await the northward push of
the warm front and eventual expansion of showers and some
thunderstorms from the sw. cams seem to suggest that much of the
activity into the overnight may end up more widely scattered
with maybe far nw areas being clipped as the main axis orients
from se wisconsin into il. have not made any changes yet to the
forecast since isentropic lift does further increase through the
night, but something to keep an eye on.

otherwise no other changes needed.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 247 pm edt wed apr 1 2026

a break in the moderate rain along a slow-moving warm front for the
late afternoon and early evening. rainfall amounts of 2-4" from
about knox, in through napoleon and continental ohio has resulted
in widespread field flooding and rising water (or overflowing of) on
area waterways. there is some concern for flooding rain tonight
through mid-morning thursday as the warm front lifts north, but
not quite a slam dunk scenario. thankfully, the greatest rain
totals tonight (about 0.50-1") look to be mainly west of sr 15
in indiana, which is dislocated from worst of the flooding
reports we`ve received so far. rain tonight will also be
progressive, resulting in a shorter residence time. area- wide,
tonight`s rain will total about +/-0.25" to 0.50", with higher
amounts in thunderstorms.

very warm and breezy on thursday with the warm front now to our
north. a wind advisory was considered for western counties, yet the
duration appears brief (6 hours or less) and guidance appears most
aligned with wind gusts near 40 mph rather than 45 mph. the extent
of afternoon mixing is uncertain given abundant clouds to begin the
day. will pass this on to the next shift for additional consideration.

after a primarily dry day (especially south of us 24 where rain ends
earliest) we`ll be monitoring for afternoon thunderstorms to develop
over northwest indiana along a meager prefrontal area. despite bulk
shear of about 40 knots, mucape will be limited to barely 500j/kg.
in this prefrontal area, forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates
near 6.5 c/km and a generally unidirectional wind profile. this
decreases forecast confidence in the evolution of any severe weather
from the prefrontal environment. along the cold front, low-level
hodographs and mid-level lapse rates have improved, yet instability
remains paltry. additionally, the environment could be worked over
by the preceding showers/storms. overall, low confidence on the
slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tomorrow. general thinking
remains damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, from about 5pm to
11pm edt.

there are additional opportunities for severe storms both friday and
perhaps saturday when we remain in the warm sector preceding another
cold frontal passage saturday afternoon. sharply colder but
mercifully dry sunday. high pressure attempts to take shape over the
great lakes through wednesday, but energetic northwest flow
attempts to send clippers through the region. however, happy to
report that heavy precipitation is not expected sunday through
wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 738 pm edt wed apr 1 2026

mvfr/ifr conditions to linger at both sites as abundant low
level moisture remains in place and increasing lift arrives
tonight ahead of a warm front. some question on coverage and
timing of shower (isolated thunder) overnight so slowed down
arrival of showers a bit and opted for some tempos with greatest
concentration possibly occurring west of ksbn.

warm front surges north by afternoon with the area firmly placed
in the warm sector. thunderstorms will develop upstream across
il and mo and move northeast towards the area. opted for a tempo
at ksbn towards the end of the period for showers as some
concerns exist on timing/coverage/intensity of convection ahead
of the cold front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 5 am edt
friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...brown
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1201 am edt thu apr 2 2026

.key messages...

- much warmer thursday with morning shower chances and perhaps a
rumble of thunder.

- additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely thursday
evening and overnight, but the highest chances for strong to
marginally severe storms will mainly reside west of us-23.

- turning drier with continued warmth on friday, followed by
additional showers and thunderstorms friday night and saturday.

- below normal temperatures return sunday into early next week with
a few additional showers.

&&

.aviation...

a stalled warm front across the ohio valley tied to a low pressure
system over iowa will result in deteriorating conditions through the
forecast period. an initial band of showers and elevated
thunderstorms will pass through this morning roughly 11-14z. in
addition to the precipitation, cigs will drop to ifr being just
north of the front, and vsbys will also fall into mvfr range. warm
front will push north later in the day with gust winds veering
slowly from ne to se today and increasing around 00z out of the s as
the warm sector pushes through. the low will pass to our north
thursday night with additional chances of thunderstorms tonight
ahead of, and along the cold front. best chance at this point looks
to be around 01-05z for the first band but additional showers and
storms may follow.

for dtw...a couple opportunities for convection in the forecast.
first will come in the morning thursday generally from 11-14z as
elevated band of storms pushes north through the region. after a
lull in activity through the afternoon and into the evening, a cold
front will start working across lower mi offer one or more
additional bands of storms thursday night. first chance looks to be
around 01-05z, but additional storms may follow.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight through thursday
night.

* medium for thunderstorm activity between 11-14z thursday, medium
again after 00z thursday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 403 pm edt wed apr 1 2026

discussion...

stalled frontal boundary over the ohio valley remains in place
through this evening providing an extended corridor of low-level
convergence while perturbed mid-level geopotential heights ripple
through aloft. this leads to persistent shower activity, generally
south of i-94 as supporting axis of thetae advection remains
fixated. latest model data suggests the swath of showers could
linger throughout much of the overnight period, particularly near
the michigan/ohio border. the stationary front eventually dislodges
toward southern lower michigan late tonight as it transitions into a
warm front, once it interfaces with surface low pressure ejecting
from the plains.

the progression/pivot of the governing negatively tilted mid-level
shortwave trough drives the surface low toward the upper midwest
thursday morning. it crosses the upper mississippi valley around 12z
with an increasingly broad cyclonic flow field that establishes a
well-defined comma head structure. shower activity develops
significantly ahead of the surface front, amidst a favorably
structured isentropic ascent ramp, with coverage expanding
northeastward through the morning hours. the first raindrops should
reach lenawee county around 10z, and then overspread the rest of the
forecast area through 14z. potential exist for some embedded
thunderstorms through the first half of thursday as meager mucape
materializes for parcels originating at the top of the expanding
inversion layer (near 4 kft agl). no severe weather expected with
the initial round of elevated convection.

the lower tropospheric wind field becomes increasingly dynamic with
time thursday, marked by 40-50 knot flow down to 925 mb as confluent
southwest flow expands into the lower peninsula. forecast soundings
indicate strong static stability until the final 1 kft above the
surface, therefore, gusts should be kept in-check for most of the
day (below 30 mph). given the slow progression of the surface front,
gradient winds hold ese into the afternoon hours with sub-50f
dewpoints, at least through 18z. the most robust lower column
moisture and thermal advection reaches the tri-cities first, the
location that stands the best chance to overachieve on the frequency
of diurnal showers/storms.

winds shift southerly by thursday evening as the warm front moves
north, accompanied by an intense surge in dewpoints. most areas
should exceed 60f surface dewpoints by 00z thursday evening, but it
will not directly translate to a jump in instability (sbcape) as a
weak cap may hold near 5 kft agl. regardless, subtle mid-level
cooling should still help invigorate updraft velocities as upper
level divergence support moves in overhead. latest cams show some
agreement in more persistent scattered convection over the tri-
cities thursday evening while linear organization will be favored
along the nose of the llj, further south. shear and instability
maximize during this time, and anywhere that the remaining cap
erodes could exhibit a multi-hazard severe threat. isolated
convective gusts of 50+ mph and large hail (quarter-sized) are more
probable than a brief weak spin-up tornado since hodographs trend
less curved. the pre-frontal dry slot then moves in around 06z,
favoring a brief pause in thunderstorm activity. the final round of
showers develop friday morning along the decaying cold frontal slope.

split-flow briefly emerges within the lower levels friday as
shortwave ridging slides across the great lakes region. active
weather returns friday night and saturday as a closed low through
250 mb follows a familiar wave trajectory toward michigan.its warm
sector offers 11-13c 850 mb temperatures leading highs some 20
degrees above normal, both days. multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially saturday evening with a
productive cold frontal passage. timing of an impressive 0-1 km srh
field, conversion to surface-based instability, and pre-frontal
forcing saturday evening presents the greatest severe threat, but
low confidence in everything coming together on-schedule. becoming
more seasonable sunday through tuesday with decreasing winds, but
additional opportunities for showers.

marine...

the northeast gradient will increase today as the surface high over
quebec continues to push eastward. at the same time a warm front
approaches from the south from low pressure out over the central
plains. this will bring elevated waves into saginaw bay and across
the lake huron shoreline, where small craft advisories are in
effect. the low pressure is then forecast to track towards the
western great lakes later on thursday. as the low approaches, there
is a low probability for easterly winds to reach gale force late
thursday night into friday morning. rain showers will be likely
through the morning and afternoon along a warm front thursday with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms later in the day
leading into friday morning. some isolated thunderstorms may be
strong to severe, leading to wind gusts aoa 34 knots.

hydrology...

numerous opportunities exist for showers and thunderstorms late
tonight through sunday. higher potential for heavy rainfall exists
thursday morning, thursday night, saturday morning, and saturday
evening. showers and thunderstorms will be moving quickly, therefore
any flooding will be tied to locations that experience the highest
frequency of repeat showers/thunderstorms. for thursday, rainfall
totals range from a quarter inch over metro detroit to an inch
across the tri-cities. the qpf footprint is broader for saturday
with 0.50-0.75 inches expected across southeast michigan. flooding
should predominantly be limited to poor drainage and low-lying
areas, but the anomalously warm and humid atmosphere could support
locally higher rainfall rates that could lead to an increase in
flooding concerns. wpc excessive rainfall outlooks place portions of
southeast michigan within marginal risk areas, both days.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...kgk
marine.......ss/am
hydrology....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.