Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
192
fxus61 kcle 291124
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 am edt wed jul 29 2026

.what has changed...
no significant forecast changes this morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure in control through the end of the week.

2) upper trough moves into the great lakes for the weekend bringing a
return to chances for showers/storms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level ridge axis moves into the great lakes for the end of the
week as high pressure settles into the region at the surface. the
upper trough that has moved east of the area continues to bring lake
enhanced cloud cover ashore in breezy northerly flow, and should end
after 12z this morning except for nw pa where some cloud cover could
hang on into the afternoon aided by mixing. expecting mostly clear
conditions today otherwise in a cooler and slightly lower dewpoint
airmass. this airmass will modify each day with slightly higher
temperatures into the low to mid 80s by friday. meanwhile, thursday
will be sunny once again while friday has increasing cirrus
cloud cover from the west.


key message 2...
an upper level trough will track into the southern great lakes from
the upper mississippi valley while generating surface low pressure
over the mid mississippi valley. an inverted surface trough from the
surface low will set up over the cwa for saturday and sunday,
bringing back higher dewpoints, a return of low/mid level moisture,
and patchy, weak instability in a pattern that will not progress
much during that period. in the end, expecting temperatures to
remain in the low to mid 80s for the weekend and chance pops
with some uncertainties in the coverage and timing.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
widespread vfr conditions are expected through the taf period.
areas of few/sct low ceilings (2-3 kft) will continue across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania terminals through late
morning. widespread skc is anticipated by this afternoon as
high pressure builds overhead.

northerly to northwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 knots are
expected again during the late morning and afternoon hours
today. winds will diminish after sunset this evening to 10 knots
or less, remaining northerly.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected saturday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.marine...
elevated northerly winds 15-25 knots continue across the lake
through tonight before diminishing overnight thursday into
friday morning as high pressure builds overhead. given the
stronger onshore flow, wave heights in the central and eastern
basins of 4-7 feet remain. small craft advisory and beach hazard
statement remain in effect through late tonight. conditions
will be hazardous for small craft in addition to the high risk
of rip currents. swimming is discouraged!

as the aforementioned high pressure system builds overhead,
winds will decrease and become light and variable by friday.
winds turn easterly saturday and sunday as low pressure passes
south of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through late tonight for ohz009>012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt thursday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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734
fxus63 kiwx 290952
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
552 am edt wed jul 29 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable weather continues with low humidity.

- dangerous swimming conditions persist for southeastern lake michigan
beaches with high waves and currents through this morning.

- chances for rain and storms increase to 40-60% late friday into
saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1258 am edt wed jul 29 2026

dry conditions, low humidity, sunshine, and seasonable temperatures
are expected again today and for the next several days. high
temperatures will be about 5 degrees below normal today only topping
out in the upper 70s to low 80s. locations closer to lake michigan
in northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan may not even get
out of the mid 70s today. several more seasonable and dry days are
expected through friday as high pressure builds into the great lakes
region midweek. expect highs to gradually warm by a few degrees each
day through friday as the airmass moderates.

dangerous swimming conditions persist for southeast lake michigan
beaches for at least the first half of the day today. a beach
hazards statement remains in effect for la porte county, in and
berrien county, mi through daybreak. buoys offshore of the southeast
shoreline show wave heights around 5 to 6 feet currently. a downward
trend is expected later this morning with waves diminishing to 2 to
3 feet. heed warnings from lifeguards and beach flags!

it will be dry at least through the first half of the day friday; an
incoming frontal system over the central plains will move into the
mid mississippi river valley by late friday night into saturday,
with increasing chances (40-60%) for rain/storms returning to our
forecast area. there are some signs in the long term model guidance
that this incoming system may stall for a few days to our south. a
large upper level trough may form over the great lakes and down
into the mid mississippi river valley, becoming cutoff from the
main jet stream. because of this possibility, have retained nbm
pops which feature intermittent low chances (20-30%) for
showers sunday and monday as well as cooler temperatures with
highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 551 am edt wed jul 29 2026

no changes made for the 12z tafs. high pressure building across
the upper midwest continues to keep conditions dry with very few
clouds and vfr ceilings. winds will prevail from the north
through the duration of the taf forecast period; winds will be
around 5 kts this morning, increasing to around 10 kts by this
afternoon.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 7 am cdt this morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 8 am edt this morning for miz177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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551
fxus63 kdtx 291628
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1228 pm edt wed jul 29 2026

.key messages...

- near normal temperatures and dry conditions over the next couple
days.

- chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure continues to move into southern lower mi with dry air
at nearly all levels. there is just enough boundary layer moisture
to support few/sct high base cumulus clouds this afternoon and
expect similar conditions on thursday. north winds of 10-15 kts with
gusts around 20 kts will continue this afternoon. these winds will
decrease this evening and overnight. light winds expected on
thursday as the high pressure settles over the area.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and
thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 am edt wed jul 29 2026

discussion...

high pressure currently over wisconsin will govern local conditions
over the next several days, ensuring a dry and seasonable period for
se michigan. northerly flow maintains h8 temperatures in the low
teens atop lake temperatures of 20+ c, which will be enough to keep
lake moisture flux active over lake huron and generate pockets of
diurnal cumulus this afternoon. outside of this, mostly sunny skies
are expected. lingering cyclonic influence from the new england low
keeps an elevated wind field aloft that the boundary layer will tap
into this afternoon. breezy conditions with gusts up to 25 mph are
possible. a very similar day is in store for thursday as the surface
high makes little eastward progress, although less breezy as the
more relaxed high pressure gradient gains influence.

next wave to impact the great lakes will be en route today and
thursday as it rounds the crest of the 595 dam ridge over central
conus. this will accelerate eastern progress of the ridge while also
attempting to dislodge the thermal trough. the warm tongue will
gradually lose strength though as it encounters deep troughing over
eastern conus, meaning a less aggressive warm up than what we saw
earlier this month--into the upper 80s for friday.

the wave then brings the next opportunity for showers and thunder to
se michigan friday night. model consistency then breaks down for the
weekend, differing in if the wave stays progressive or cuts off over
the ohio valley. either way, se michigan looks to spend time under
the deformation axis to keep cloud cover and rain chances in the
forecast for at least part of the weekend. only a handful of dry
members exist for saturday in the 00z ensemble suite, although that
number increases sunday. ensemble members also largely favor
temperatures to hold aob normal (mid-80s) for the weekend before a
warm up is expected early next week.

marine...

northerly flow persists today as we sit within the pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western great lakes and low pressure
stalled over new england. wind speed of 15 to 20 kt will be common
with gusts to 25 kt possible at times across southern lake huron.
the long fetch keeps wave heights elevated and small craft
advisories remain in effect for the lake huron nearshore waters. dry
conditions persist today into thursday with wind and waves gradually
subsiding on thursday as the high pressure builds overhead. a chance
of scattered showers and storms then arrives late friday and
saturday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz049-055-
063.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....rbp
discussion...mv
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.