Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 am edt mon mar 30 2026

.what has changed...
added some timing resolution to pops on tuesday, showing a period of
relatively drier weather during the day before convection moves in
from the northwest late tuesday and tuesday night. confidence in us
surging well into the warm sector on thursday is increasing,
with warmer temperatures and a window of drier weather that day.

&&

.key messages...
1) hit and miss shower and thunder chances at times through early
tuesday, followed by greater potential for showers and thunderstorms
late tuesday into early wednesday with a cold front. some storms late
tuesday into tuesday night may be severe.

2) the next system in our active pattern is expected thursday and
friday, with returning shower and storm chances and another brief
surge of warmer and more humid conditions.

3) unsettled weather continues this weekend as low pressure lifts
through the great lakes, bringing more fronts across the local area.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

most of the day monday will be dry but with a fair amount of cloud
cover driven by ongoing low-level warm air/moisture advection. highs
will push well into the 60s with some western sites likely touching
70. there will be enough of a low-level jet to yield modestly gusty
surface winds as mixing deepens this afternoon and early evening,
especially along/west of i-71 where peak gusts may reach 30 mph.

a flat/low-amplitude shortwave will zip across the central great
lakes this evening and tonight as elevated instability advects in
aloft. the combination of modest lift and increased moisture along
and ahead of the shortwave to go along with developing elevated
instability will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm
chances beginning late afternoon/early evening, with activity likely
peaking this evening and tonight. activity should diminish and/or
shift farther northeast late tonight into tuesday morning as a capped
warm sector becomes established across the area. the greatest rain
potential late today and tonight will stretch from the toledo area
east-southeast across lake erie into northeast oh and northwest pa,
with relatively lower pops and qpf amounts farther south and
southwest. some hi-res models suggest localized corridors of over
1.50" of rain may occur with more organized convection through early
tuesday across some of our northern and northeastern counties, though
that will largely be the exception with area average qpf more likely
to land in the 0.40-1.00" range across extreme northeast oh and
northwest pa in that timeframe, diminishing farther southwest. given
this, not expecting notable flooding concerns through tuesday
morning. as a decent elevated mixed layer (eml) works in overnight
tonight, bringing steeper mid-level lapse rates amid moderate deep-
layer shear, do not want to rule out a bit of hail with any elevated
convection. however, the overall severe weather risk will be
minimal tonight. lows tonight will be mild, ranging from the mid-
upper 50s east to lower 60s west.

once lingering showers/storms exit northeast tuesday morning, most
of the day will be dry, breezy, and quite warm. capping and a lack
of forcing in the open warm sector should lead to mainly dry weather
until convection potential along the approaching cold front works in
from the northwest late tuesday or tuesday evening. highs on tuesday
will push well into the mid-upper 70s for most, with a few sites
quite possibly touching 80 in we see enough sunshine and a long
enough window of rain-free conditions. wind gusts of 30-40 mph are
likely on tuesday in a warm/mixed airmass beneath a moderate low-
level jet, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible west of the i-71
corridor in the afternoon and early evening.

shower and storm potential increases from the northwest late tuesday
into tuesday night as large-scale forcing increases and a cold front
sags in. there is some disagreement over how quickly the cold front
and convective potential with it sinks into our area, with some
guidance suggesting this happens as early as late tuesday afternoon
across northwest oh while a majority of guidance suggests tuesday
evening/night is more likely. through the evening hours, a
combination of increasing forcing, moderate to strong low-mid level
flow and weakly capped or uncapped instability can support organized
surface-based convection along or just ahead of the front.
thereafter, the low-levels appear to stabilize enough to minimize
severe potential overnight tuesday night. if surface-based convection
is realized, 40-50kt of effective deep-layer shear, including strong
0-3km shear of over 40kt, along with weak to moderate instability (up
to 1500 j/kg of mlcape) and steep mid-level lapse rates (up to
7.5c/km) can support all modes of severe weather, with damaging winds
the most likely hazard followed by large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes. however, uncertainty remains over how quickly the
front can push in before the environment becomes less supportive of
severe weather. overall, the greatest potential for severe weather
is in the toledo area with gradually diminishing potential farther
southeast. the new spc day 2 outlook has a slight risk (level 2/5)
across the northern third of our area, diminishing to a marginal risk
(level 1/5) farther south. don`t feel this is unreasonable, though
the confidence in the slight risk is higher farther northwest with a
weakening trend likely southeast across our forecast area.

rain and some elevated convection are expected to spread south-
southeast across the rest of the area later tuesday night into
wednesday along and behind the frontal passage. area average rain
amounts of 0.60-1.20" are forecast across the northern half of our
area late tuesday into wednesday, diminishing to the south. locally
up to 2.00" may occur with especially organized or training
convection. this round of rain will likely cause area
streams/creeks/rivers to rise more sharply, with a few more prone
points possibly reaching minor flood...though overall, widespread
flooding is not expected.

a brief period of drier weather is possible behind the front later
wednesday morning and afternoon ahead of the next system. a notable
airmass change is likely behind the front, with forecast highs on
wednesday ranging from the 40s near lake erie to perhaps the lower
60s well inland. there is some uncertainty regarding if our southern
counties are still rather mild wednesday morning, though it should be
noticeably cooler than tuesday overall at the end of the day.

key message #2:

the next trough starts digging into the plains quickly wednesday and
wednesday night, causing heights to rise locally and sending our
prior cold front back northeast as a warm front late wednesday and
wednesday night. another round of showers and some elevated
convection will occur along and ahead of the warm front late
wednesday into wednesday night.

the trough to our west takes on a negative tilt and lifts northeast
into the upper great lakes thursday into thursday night, pulling a
deepening low pressure across the central great lakes. thursday is
looking more likely to be a drier and very warm day as we get well
into the warm sector. some pops linger on thursday, especially across
lake erie and northeast oh/northwest pa early in the day, and then
increasing from the west-northwest ahead of the approaching cold
front late in the day. however, there should be some dry breaks with
highs surging well into the 70s...with lower 80s possible if we end
up seeing enough dry time and sunshine.

rain potential should increase from the west-northwest late thursday
and thursday night as the low passes to our north and drags the cold
front into the local area. this cold front has trended slower in
recent runs of guidance, leading to forecast highs for friday
trending a bit warmer as pops also trend higher. pops will need to
remain fairly high on friday until the front can clear.

overall, this system isn`t particularly alarming from a severe
weather or heavy rain/flooding perspective. however, there may be
enough rain area-wide to keep rivers a bit elevated.

key message #3:

any period of drier weather behind the thursday-friday system won`t
last too long, as models agree on a fairly impressive trough ejecting
into the plains friday night and saturday and shifting into the upper
great lakes on sunday. this will drive yet another low pressure
towards the upper great lakes saturday into sunday. this low looks to
lift our front back north as a warm front friday night into saturday,
followed by another cold frontal passage saturday night or sunday.
rain amounts and severe potential will depend on the exact track and
strength of the low, along with the timing of the cold front. given
that, it`s too early to speculate on potential hazards with the
weekend system. however, it`s safe to say our unsettled/active
pattern from this week will continue through the weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
a mid-level, vfr cloud deck continues across the region this
morning, although the ceiling flavor is trending more broken
than overcast, especially near lake erie. winds will increase
over the next hour or two, ending the llws threat this morning.
with increasing moisture into the region, ceilings should fall a
bit this afternoon to 3-5 kft for most of the terminals. some
rain will enter from the northwest, moving along the warm front.
the rain will impact the northeast terminals the most with some
mvfr ceilings and visibility. there is a bit more confidence in
some ts into keri tonight and have introduced a brief vcts
period. rain should exit after midnight but mvfr ceilings will
continue to spread south through the terminals. a strong low
level jet will return tonight and allow for llws conditions to
also return for most terminals. during the daytime on tuesday,
conditions should trend back to vfr across the area and mixing
should end the llws threat but wind gusts at the terminals may
end up in the 25-35 kt range.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday. additional periods of non-vfr conditions
possible in rain on thursday and friday.

&&

.marine...
offshore flow will be favored through tuesday evening with a
warm front crossing the lake and southwest return flow surging
across the region. winds may be a bit more muted during the
daytime hours today as the front lifts over the lake. tonight,
expecting winds in the 15 to 20 kt range as a low level jet
enters the region, along with some shower and storm activity.
tuesday should be an efficient mixing day and winds should at
least stay in the 15 to 20 kt range but could even accelerate
further to 25 kts. a small craft advisory remains possible
tonight into tuesday with the enhanced southwest flow.

for tuesday night into wednesday, a cold front will cross the
lake and northwest flow will return to the basin. winds with the
cold advection do not appear all that strong on wednesday and
any increased wave activity may be brief late tuesday night.
this cold front will hover over the area on wednesday and lift
north on thursday. this will allow for easterly flow on
wednesday night and offshore southerly flow to return on
thursday. the thursday warm sector appears efficient again and
15 to 20 kts of offshore flow seems likely at this time. a cold
front will move through on friday and winds will shift to the
northwest and weaken.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am edt mon mar 30 2026

.key messages...

- isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening across
northeast indiana and northwest ohio (~20% chance).

- additional storms are likely to develop (30-50% chances) north of
i-80/i-90 late tonight into early tuesday morning.

- best chances for rain/storms comes tuesday afternoon/evening into
early wednesday (60-90% chances).

- a few storms could be strong to severe tonight/early tuesday and
again tuesday afternoon/evening.

- very mild temperatures today and tuesday with highs in the 70s.
locations south of us 24 may reach 80 on tuesday.

- cooler wednesday, then mild again with additional opportunties
for rain through next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 241 am edt mon mar 30 2026

a very active week is ahead with mild temperatures and several
opportunties for rain and storms, including potential for
severe weather. temperatures climb into the 70s this afternoon
and 850mb moisture transport ramps up today as strong waa and
southerly winds advect warm, moist air from the gulf into the
upper great lakes region. dewpoints this afternoon and evening
will be in the mid 50s to near 60. a warm front will lift north
across northern indiana this afternoon and evening. amid zonal
flow aloft and aided by several small shortwave ripples at
500mb, isolated thunderstorms may develop between 18-00z across
northeast indiana and northwest ohio. chances for rain and
storms then increase north of i-80/i-90 overnight into early
tuesday morning as the warm front continues north into lower
michigan and a surface low tracks across the midwest into the
upper great lakes. a stronger 500mb shortwave will push across
lower michigan between 03-12z tuesday. a few storms could be
strong to severe late monday night into early tuesday morning;
there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
across lower michigan. best chances for thunderstorm activity
(30- 50% between 06-12z tuesday) will be concentrated mainly
north of i- 80/i-90 where elevated instability will be present
and there will be lift in the vicinity of the warm front.
additionally, forecast soundings depict steep mid level lapse
rates anywhere from 7-9 c/km, which would promote a threat for
hail if the storms materialize. it is entirely possible that a
strong cap could prevent severe storms from forming entirely
monday night into early tuesday.

southerly winds persist tuesday with gusts to 30-35 mph, especially
by the afternoon and evening. with our area firmly in the warm
sector on tuesday, highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s area-
wide. locations south of us 24 have the best chances of reaching 80
degrees or higher. with a breezy and warm tuesday ahead, we are
monitoring potential for thunderstorm development with a cold front
on tuesday afternoon/evening into early wednesday. destabilization
should occur sometime tuesday afternoon/evening within the warm
sector in northern indiana and lower michigan. the northern
half of our forecast area is in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather on tuesday. with southwest surface flow and
zonal winds aloft, 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts will exist all day
tuesday. models show sbcape values of 1500-2000 j/kg tuesday
afternoon and evening, it is just a question of if and when we
break the cap. moderately steep mid level lapse rates around 7
c/km will be supportive for severe weather tuesday afternoon and
evening (18-03z), but quickly diminish after sunset. while we
may start with a discrete storm or two near lake michigan
tuesday afternoon, storm mode should largely favor a linear
setup with bowing segments/clusters ahead of the cold front,
which would favor damaging wind and hail threats with a
isolated, non-zero tornado threat as well. low level waa will
promote 0-1 km srh values of 200-300 m2/s2 across our forecast
area throughout the evening. in line with this, spc has our
entire area under a 2% tornado risk with cig1 hatching. this
means that while the overall tornado threat is rather low, it it
not zero and if a tornado were to develop, it could be strong
(up to ef2 intensity). the tornado threat would mainly exist if
a storm were able to remain discrete tuesday afternoon/evening.
main concerns for severe weather will be the damaging wind and
hail threats.

the cold front will sweep though much of our forecast area from
northwest to southeast late tuesday into early wednesday. the
frontal boundary may stall out over our southeast, somewhere in the
us 30 or us 24 vicinity. winds along and south of us 24 will still
be southwesterly out ahead of the front, so i have some concerns
about a flooding threat developing early wednesday morning as those
surface winds will be parallel to the incoming cold/stationary
front. the atmosphere will be saturated with low and mid level rh of
80-90%. precipitable water values are 1.25-1.5" between 03-09z
wednesday and as aforementioned, strong moisture transport at 850mb
will be bringing in very warm and moisture air. forecast soundings
south of us 24 also show tall, skinny cape profiles and deep,
warm cloud layer >10,000 ft. all of this points towards
potential flooding concerns developing south of us 24 (and maybe
even as far north as us 30), depending on the exact timing and
forward speed of the cold front.

temperatures crash on the backside of the front on wednesday, with
highs likely being reached for the day around midnight. temperatures
will then be in the 40s during the afternoon wednesday. mild air
then returns as temperatures quickly moderate back into the 70s by
thursday afternoon. the active weather pattern continues with
additional chances for rain on thursday as another warm front lifts
across the area from south to north. more rain is possible next
weekend too as our active weather pattern looks to continue into
early april.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 635 am edt mon mar 30 2026

vfr conditions and s-sw winds are expected at the terminals
through the period. gusts up to around 25 knots are possible at
both sites this afternoon, and again later tonight at kfwa.
ceilings should linger between 4000-5000ft, with periods of
scattered clouds. llws up to 40 knots tonight, and then up to 50
knots by tonight as a strong llj ramps up. low confidence in
rain/storm chances this afternoon/eve-models bouncing around
with firing off a few storms just northeast of kfwa. introduced
a prob30 for this period in the event the area of showers/storms
develops closer to the terminal. otherwise, better chances
later tonight (especially at ksbn) as storms develop along a
boundary near the toll road. some guidance brings these into
kfwa after 8z, closest to 12z, but many leave the chances out
all together. have vcsh/prob30s to account for these between
6-11z at ksbn, and 8-12z at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am tuesday to 2 pm edt wednesday
for lmz043.
small craft advisory from 8 am tuesday to 8 pm edt wednesday
for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1234 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend is on schedule for highs in the 60s today and in
the 70s tuesday.

- the warmer air fuels an active period of showers and thunderstorms
beginning tonight. a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms
remains in place for hail as the primary hazard.

- there is a slight risk for greater coverage of severe
thunderstorms and for all hazards tuesday. damaging wind is the
primary but also including potential for large hail and tornadoes.

- a strong cold front fuels storms but also a chance for excessive
rainfall. there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall mainly
along and south of m-46 tuesday afternoon and evening.

- after the front tuesday night, temperatures drop back to normal or
slightly below normal for wednesday through late week.

- the weather pattern the remains active late week into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

strengthening southwest winds will increase moisture and instability
across southern lower michigan through tonight. steep mid-level
lapse rates and a low-level jet will likely trigger showers and
thunderstorms, primarily focused near mbs and fnt. southern taf
sites will likely remain drier overnight due to a mid-level dry
slot. will maintain the low level shear mention in southern tafs
overnight.

while a few isolated storms are possible early this evening as a
warm front lifts north, widespread low clouds are unlikely unless
precipitation develops, as surface dew points are currently low (but
expected to reach the 50s). a wave of low pressure tracking along a
frontal boundary will push a cold front south through the day
tomorrow. while the exact timing remains uncertain, expect either a
continuation of overnight activity or renewed storm development
tomorrow afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 ft this evening through tuesday morning,
then medium.

* low for thunderstorms through tomorrow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 am edt mon mar 30 2026

discussion...

the next stage of the warming trend is on schedule for today as most
of se mi remains in the building warm sector east of the large
central plains low pressure system. the tri cities and northern
thumb are the exceptions where the northern great lakes cold front
leaks into the area late in the day. href mean shows this occurring
late in the day and likely after mbs reaches mid 60s for afternoon
highs. onshore wind develops a few hours earlier along the northern
thumb shoreline which holds readings there in the lower 50s. mid and
upper 60s are reachable across the rest of se mi even as clouds
thicken during the afternoon, and even with a stray shower toward
metro detroit.

the late day to early evening showers in the south are the first
sign of accelerating moisture transport from the ohio valley into
lower mi tonight. surface pressure falls within the plains to
midwest low pressure system support considerable strengthening of
the low level jet shown in model theta-e and wind in the 850-700 mb
layer after sunset. the moisture transport occurs within an
increasingly unstable mid level thermal profile drawn in from a pool
of 700-500 mb lapse rate averaging 8 c/km in current early morning
hourly mesoanalysis across a wide area of the central and southern
plains. href mean projections indicate this moisture/lapse rate
combination lifts mucape into the 1000-1500 j/kg range over se mi
after midnight extending westward to where mucape exceeds 2000 j/kg
over wi/il. the chance for elevated supercells then arises when
added to the strong westerly wind profile offering effective bulk
shear in the 40 kt range. the small slight risk area upstream into a
larger marginal risk area across southern lower mi appears very
reasonable given the potential for 1+ inch hail in this setup. there
is also a chance for a stray damaging surface wind gust as model
soundings show stable surface based temperature profiles during the
evening becoming more neutral after midnight. a sneaky high surface
wind gust could occur from the base of the low level jet even
outside of convection late tonight and tuesday morning.

a short break in activity is expected tuesday morning as nocturnal
showers/storms move into the northern great lakes, along and north
of the central lower mi warm front. this opens up the warm sector to
better daytime heating as low level rh projections also show less
cloud cover to contend with early in the day. preference is then to
lean toward higher end href mean mucape estimates likely exceeding
1500 j/kg to go along with a still outstanding wind profile still
offering 60 kts at 500 mb. the tornado risk is tied to better low
level directional shear near the central lower mi warm front and
with any discrete warm sector cells tracking in the direction of
their ffd. storms then grow upscale into linear modes to ramp up the
damaging wind threat along and ahead of the cold front mid afternoon
into tuesday evening. a marginal risk for excessive rainfall also
continues for this phase of the event along and east of the cold
front until it exits south/east tuesday evening.

post frontal showers linger toward the ohio border late tuesday
night and wednesday morning while the surface front settles into the
ohio valley. this frontal zone remains the focus of an active
weather pattern for the area from wednesday night through late week.
the next central plains low pressure system reactivates moisture
transport back into lower mi wednesday night with a chance for a
short period of rain/snow mix or wintry mix until the low pressure
center tracks west and pulls warmer air back northward during
thursday.

marine...

broad southwest flow will veer to the east for most of lake huron by
this evening as the next low pressure system and its warm front gain
influence locally. the shift in flow will also be accompanied by an
expansion of showers and elevated thunderstorms overnight into
tuesday morning, where hail will be the primary threats. the surface
low tracks across northern michigan tuesday afternoon, drawing a
cold front across lower michigan and adjacent marine waters in its
wake. a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
along the frontal passage tuesday evening, in which localized gusts
in excess of 35 knots will be possible. elevated winds and/or waves
will be driven mainly by thunderstorm activity, as otherwise stable
conditions prevent gusts from mixing to the surface. a cooler post-
frontal airmass then moves in mid-week as flow shifts to the
northwest tuesday night with the fropa. high pressure then drifts
across ontario wednesday, causing winds to veer around the southern
edge of the high before the next system lifts into the area
thursday.

hydrology...

showers and scattered thunderstorms expand across se michigan
tonight then continue tuesday after a relative break in the morning.
rainfall amounts average around 0.25 inch tonight with an additional
0.25-0.5 during tuesday. there is a chance for localized totals near
1 inch south of i-69 and across metro detroit where a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall remains in place late tuesday and tuesday
evening. this is when showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
have greater potential to line up along a strong cold front crossing
the area. the rainfall occurs during a short enough time span to
raise the chance for ponding of water on roads and minor flooding in
urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...bt
marine.......mv
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.