Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
642
fxus61 kcle 211211
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
711 am est wed jan 21 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is slowly increasing for widespread accumulating
snow on sunday. sub-zero wind chills will return on friday and
persist into early next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) a widespread snow is expected today with the highest totals found
across northwest pennsylvania. temperatures will warm near or
above freezing by this afternoon and evening, followed by a cold
front and gusty winds later tonight.

2) a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills is expected
beginning this friday and will likely extend into early next
week.

3) we are continuing to monitor potential impacts across our
area from a developing system across the southern conus this
weekend. confidence is slowly increasing for widespread
accumulating snow on sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a clipper system will bring a period of widespread snow from
west to east across the area today. generally light totals of
0.5 to 2 inches are expected along and ahead of a warm front as
temperatures quickly warm into the low to mid-30s by this
afternoon. higher storm total snow amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
expected across northwest pennsylvania into thursday morning -
a majority of which should fall this afternoon and evening with
the warm front. snow rates will generally range between 0.5 and
0.75 of an inch per hour, though brief 1 inch per hour rates
cannot be ruled out, especially early this afternoon.

light snow and/or freezing drizzle is possible late this evening
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania behind the
warm front as mid- level moisture dries out. snow should become
the predominate precipitation type once again by late overnight
into thursday morning as mid-level moisture returns with a cold
front passage. winds have been trending higher in recent model
runs behind the cold front tonight and will be something to
monitor in the next forecast package, especially across
northwest ohio and along the lakeshore where brief 40 to 45 mph
wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

key message 2...

a brief relief to the cold will arrive today as a clipper
system moves east through the great lakes, lifting a warm front
across the area and ushering in temperatures near or even
slightly above freezing this afternoon and evening.

looking ahead, a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills is
expected towards the end of the week into early next week as a
strong cold front moves through the area on friday. the coldest
temperatures are expected late friday into saturday, with
medium-high to high confidence (60 to 80%) for wind chills to
drop below -15 degrees f. ambient surface temperatures will also
remain cold, with medium-high to high confidence (70 to 100%)
for daytime high temperatures to be at or below 16 degrees f,
especially on friday and saturday.


key message 3...

finally, we are keeping an eye on a developing system across the
southern conus this weekend and its potential impacts to our
area. confidence in a widespread accumulating snow continues to
increase, with medium confidence (40 to 50%) for at least 2
inches of snow, up from 10 to 20% in last night`s model cycle,
particularly east of the i-71 corridor. probabilities remain low
to medium low (20 to 30%) for at least 4 inches of snow, though
the overall synoptic pattern suggests this upward trend may
continue with plenty of moisture and cold air in place.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
the main aviation weather concern with this 12z taf update will
be impacts from scattered light snow moving across the area
today bringing mvfr to brief ifr conditions at times. overall
conditions are starting off this morning vfr to some mvfr with
some areas of light snow. bands of light snow will move into
nwoh over the next few hours and progress eastward into neoh and
nwpa later this morning through the early afternoon. we will see
3sm to 6sm visibilities from the light snow and generally
ceilings between 2500 to 3500 feet for all tafs today. the
timing in the tafs highlights an east to west time window,
morning impacts for nwoh and midday to afternoon impacts for
neoh and nwpa. the light snow will linger into this evening and
overnight for the snowbelt area with mvfr to lower end mvfr
expected. outside of the snowbelt, broken to overcast ceilings
on either side of 3000 feet are expected this evening and
overnight.

winds are starting out this morning from the south 8 to 12
knots. winds will become southwesterly and increase this morning
into midday between 15 to 22 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
possible. the gusty winds will continue into tonight and become
westerly overnight behind a cold front.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with lake effect snow showers
in the primary snowbelt of neoh and nwpa thursday through
friday. the potential is increasing for areawide light snow and
non- vfr saturday night through sunday night.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions will continue to be rough with strong
gusty winds through the end the week. currently the western third of
lake erie is now mostly ice covered as well as the nearshore water
from cleveland eastward to northwest pennsylvania. open water in the
central and eastern basin of lake erie still remain at this time.
another low pressure system will move across the great lakes region
today into tonight with a cold frontal passage. winds will increase
again this morning 15 to 25 knots from the southwest. behind the
cold front tonight, winds will be westerly 20 to 30 knots. we may
have a short time period late tonight into thursday morning with
winds approaching gales over the central and eastern basin. westerly
winds will continue 15 to 25 thursday into thursday night. another
arctic cold front will sweep across the great lakes late thursday
night into early friday morning with winds shifting northwesterly 15
to 25 knots through friday night. waves heights will increase with
very rough conditions out over the open and ice free water of the
central and eastern basin today through friday night. there is the
potential that water levels in the far western basin may drop again
near or below the critical mark for safe marine navigation due the
stronger southwest to westerly winds later today through thursday.

a strong arctic high pressure system will build over the great lakes
friday through saturday night. winds will actually decrease to
around 10 knots under that high pressure early in the weekend. a
potential storm system and low pressure system will move into the
ohio valley and mid-atlantic region late this weekend into early
next week with winds shifting northeasterly winds by sunday 10 to 15
knots.

ice formation and rapid growth is likely to continue or accelerate
with the upcoming very cold weather late this week through next
week. the nearshore ice is not fastened to the shoreline, so it is
possible that this ice in the central and eastern basins gets pushed
around slightly into open water areas in the offshore winds.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est
thursday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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797
fxus63 kiwx 211142
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am est wed jan 21 2026

.key messages...

- light snow moves out this morning. then, after a brief break,
some more snow showers will be possible this evening. gusty
winds between 20 and 30 mph will be possible, especially
southeast of us-24 today. there is a 15% to 30% chance that
winds may exceed 35 mph tonight. these winds could cause
blowing and drifting snow making driving hazardous.

- after a brief warm-up today, a bitterly cold arctic air mass
is poised to return later this week through the weekend. there
is a high probability (greater than 70% north of us-24 friday
and north of us-30 on saturday) that daytime highs on friday
and saturday will remain in the single digits. some areas may
struggle to get above zero.

- there will be periodic chances for lake enhanced snow showers
tonight through the weekend. an additional 1-2 inches of snow
is possible in far southwest lower mi tonight. less than 1
inch expected elsewhere.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 252 am est wed jan 21 2026

a couple things that may ultimately restrict the amount of snow that
falls out of this morning`s clipper include dry low levels allowing
evaporation and a little bit of a mismatch in the omega/moisture/dgz
leading too less (not an elimination) dendrites being formed and
lowering slrs. dry air on the back end of the lake effect snow
and the sunny skies we got on tuesday probably contributed to
this with the moisture plume arriving late to contribute to a
juicy low. the hi-res models began picking up on this last night
whereas the low-res models continued to maintain a lower
gradient in snow totals for this event.

moving forward, the vort max from this system rises northward today
and gives way to another clipper system for this evening. today`s
fight south of us-30 between the cooler moist air and the drier
potentially warmer air will affect how warm temperatures get
today. would guess 10 degree td depressions would make it harder
to precipitate and make that area able to warm into the mid to
upper 30s for highs today.

for tonight`s system, a worse moisture plume than this morning`s
system allows for a thinner moisture profile, but the air is cold
enough that it`s still enough for snow. omega appears to be in the
dgz, but is below the moisture so that cross-hair is offset
contributing to lower ratios. while the vort max pinwheels around
the base of the trough, the general motion once it reaches lake mi
is more towards our north. it does bring a cold front through the
region between 3 and 9z this evening. the nam is highlighting
this with the snow squall parameter and there are some better
low level lapse rates with it, which would bring to mind some
more gusty snow showers. will include some pops for this, but
there may be some low level moisture problems with this system
again leaving widely scattered snow showers. as this second
clipper moves through, snow showers will be most likely in our
mi counties where some lake enhancement is possible after 3z and
continuing into early thursday morning. given weak delta ts,
dry low levels, and shallow inversion heights, only have up to
an additional inch from this second clipper system tonight. at
the very least, the increased lapse rates today allow mixing
but it never really gets high enough to tap into the 40 to 45 kt
llj with the early departure of the jet before lapse rates get
high enough. this does leave the possibility for 30 to 40 mph
gusts today, with the highest south of us-24. when the second
clipper system moves in, it actually appears that better lapse
rates will be able to continue into the overnight period.
however, it still appears to struggle with rising into the llj
again. 30 to 40 mph gusts will be possible with the highest
gusts occurring along the front.

mid level height rises take over and surface high pressure
nudges in, tending to suppress weather for thursday as
trajectories become more southerly. another weak system does
appear to come in for thursday evening and a brief uptick in
moisture along the boundary may be enough to supply some
scattered snow showers. the nam snow squall parameter is
lighting this up and there`s some adequate sbcape and low level
lapse rates to supply a gusty snow shower/ snow squall
situation. gusts during this time could reach 30 to 40 mph and
potentially 45 mph along the front as it swings through.

a vigorous shortwave follows for later thu night/friday and this
looks to invigorate the lake effect belts again. initially, it
appears that inversion heights are back up to around 7500 to 8500
ft, but nam profiles have dry low levels. i`d be curious if that
moistens up in the future runs. better low level moisture arrives
early friday morning, but by that point, inversion heights appear to
be more down around 5000 ft. delta t values are between 25 to 30c
indicating enough temperature differential and instability.

the other talking point for friday will be the cold as a 1050 mb
high drops south from canada and -25 to -30c at 850 mb temperatures
swing through the area. friday morning lows drop to the single
digits and highs struggle to get much higher than 10 degrees. we`ll
also have a bit of a breeze to work with with these temperatures to
make -10 to -20f wind chills possible again. with high pressure
moving in for saturday and sunday, high temperatures are able to
trend warmer with highs either side of 10 degrees on saturday and
mid teens on sunday. sometimes, the low temperatures can lag the
warming at the low levels of the atmosphere evidenced by some
warming noticeable by 12z saturday with -20 to -25c around instead
of securely around -25c at 850 mb.

we`ll need to watch the placement of the high pressure system, which
may shunt the moisture plume from a developing low across the
south/southeastern us just to our south. models currently depict the
moisture plume arriving sunday with snow. however, adjustment in
models has already happened and will continue to happen with this
dynamic system so it`s too early to lock in anything at this
point.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 635 am est wed jan 21 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions, with potential for ifr
conditions within snow showers this morning into early
afternoon. ceilings should linger around 5kft through late
morning when we see additional snow showers/mvfr ceilings with
a cold front through early/mid afternoon (ksbn to kfwa). s-sw
winds shift west through the period, with gusts up to around
25-30kts possible at times. suspect visibilities will remain
between 2-5sm for the most part during snow-with potential to
drop to around 1sm briefly at ksbn (especially if wind leads to
blowing/drifting in addition to falling snow). llws this morning
and then again later tonight at kfwa during periods of
decoupling.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est thursday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
502
fxus63 kdtx 211141
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
641 am est wed jan 21 2026

.key messages...

- winter weather advisory in effect until 1 pm wednesday. total snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with highest amounts between i-94
and i-69.

- chance of snow showers tonight and thursday, with additional
accumulations up to an inch.

- dangerously cold conditions friday into this weekend. minimum wind
chill below -10f expected friday, saturday, and sunday morning.

&&

.aviation...

active stretch of weather across the region through tonight.
initially we have a warm front lifting into se mi ahead of a low
approaching southern lake mi. this is resulting in widespread mvfr
cigs with ifr vsbys in the heavier snow showers. best moisture exits
the area around 15z with lingering light snow around, mainly across
the northern sites. cold front will sweep through this afternoon
providing another window of possible moderate snow showers,
especially north of ptk. all the while, dry air is surging into the
area from the south which has been pushing vfr cigs into southern
mi. hires models are picking up on this drier air so will hedge
forecast to slightly more optimistic cigs this afternoon. yet
another cold front will sweep through tonight around 4-9z which will
again present a window for light snow accumulations with higher
chances for mbs and fnt. winds will start off out of the south
before turning to the southwest and gusting to 25 knots behind the
first front this afternoon. second front will bring in drier air and
turn winds more westerly.

for dtw...snow has spread across the region with the bulk of the
activity and accumulation occuring in the first few hours of the
forecast. trends were for drier air to ease into southern mi which
will shift snow totals a bit lower, closer to 2 inches. possibly
less if the trend north continues. light snow is possible again this
afternoon with the cold front pulling lake effect across the state
but currently the better snow looks to hold north.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet through today and tonight.

* high for precip type as snow through today and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 411 am est wed jan 21 2026

discussion...

a clipper system is arriving from the west early this morning,
bringing widespread light snowfall to the area through the morning
commute and into the midday period. this occurs as a mid-level
trough engages the baroclinic zone draped from the ohio valley into
the midwest, inducing a corridor of deep layer isentropic ascent as
the surface low forces the warm front northward. the snow will
continue blossoming in coverage over the next couple hours, peaking
between roughly 6 and 10 am, then begin to wane early afternoon as
the dry slot rides in aloft. global ensemble data has remained
relatively stable with regard to qpf, but have noted a slightly
drier and farther north trend in 00z hi-res guidance. signal is not
strong enough to deviate much from the prior messaging of 1 to 3
inches, which still looks like a good range for the bulk of the
area. did nudge accumulations down slightly for areas south of i-94
where potential is greatest for dry air to cut into rates this
morning. the higher end of the forecast range, and potentially up to
around 4 inches, is still targeted near the m-59 corridor. with
travel impacts likely through midday, no changes to the winter
weather advisory which will remain in effect until 1 pm.

warm advection on breezy southwest flow will cause temperatures to
rise from the mid teens this morning into a brief period of near 30
degrees, then the cold front passes through to send temps back into
the 20s this evening. low-level moisture lingering after the bulk of
the snowfall departs may be sufficient to produce pockets of drizzle
or flurries this afternoon, otherwise drier conditions are expected
in between waves. a trailing shortwave will then pass overhead late
this evening, sending in another cold front with a boost in low-
level moisture and forcing to bring a chance for snow showers
overnight. expect the bulk of these showers to focus north of m-59
where there is some signal for a brief but notable flare-up in
fgen/omega along the front, as well as slightly better moisture
availability. additional accumulations on the order of 0.5 to 1"
will be possible where showers track. potential is also there for
higher amounts if a band becomes briefly stationary, but this
carries low predictability.

fresh cold advection engages the lake effect to carry pockets of
snow showers or just flurries across the state on thursday amidst
blustery west flow keeping wind chill in the single digits. an
uptick in snow squall parameter highlights an environment supportive
of localized squall activity should any more robust showers emerge,
but the background rising height field offers little synoptic
support for this through the day. another arctic front arriving in
the evening signals slightly better support for snow shower activity.

in the wake of the thursday night front, temps tumble to the single
digits and stay locked there through the day friday as 850mb temps
plunge to near -30c. this value sits below the moving average of
daily min in the spc sounding archive and is within 5 degrees of the
all time record low. another blustery day with a persistent westerly
gradient on friday, keeping wind chill near -10f or below from
before dawn into the afternoon. arctic high pressure then builds in
from the west friday night, reducing the wind chill factor but
simultaneously allowing actual temp to crater well below zero early
saturday morning. if the current forecast verifies with highs in the
single digits and lows in the negative teens, this will be the
coldest period since january 2019. an expansive winter storm
impacting the southern conus this weekend will lift toward the
eastern seaboard on sunday, with some guidance extending its
moisture shield into the southern and eastern great lakes. for now,
a 30% chance pop is warranted.

marine...

large-scale troughing becomes reestablished over the central great
lakes today as an embedded disturbance delivers slightly milder
conditions and additional snowfall. while gradient winds will remain
elevated, small craft advisories are no longer needed as the
nearshore waters have all become ice covered. isolated gusts to
gales are possible thursday afternoon for portions of central and
southern lake huron as the next arctic front pushes through. since
persistent gales are not expected, no gale watch was issued at this
time. renewed freezing spray concerns arise for portions of the lake
huron open waters, thus heavy freezing spray warnings may be needed.
much colder conditions settle in behind the front by friday (and for
much of the weekend) providing additional periods of snowfall and
elevated northwest flow.

climate...

the record low max temps for friday, january 23rd.

detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1883)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1959)
saginaw: 3 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
climate......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.