Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
287
fxus61 kcle 201943
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
243 pm est thu nov 20 2025

.synopsis...
a weak warm front continues to drift northward through our
region through this early evening. otherwise a high pressure
ridge continues to exit generally eastward as a cold front
approaches from the western great lakes and vicinity. the cold
front should sweep eastward through northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania late friday morning through evening and will be
followed by a ridge building from the upper midwest and vicinity
through saturday.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft is expected through friday night as
embedded shortwave trough axes move generally e`ward or se`ward
over our region. moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave
trough axes will contribute to continued partly to mostly cloudy
sky over our area. at the surface, a weak warm front was
located near the oh shore of lake erie and appeared to extend
generally e`ward into southern erie county pa at 2:25 pm est.
this front will continue moving generally n`ward and should
exit the rest of our cwa by sunset this evening. otherwise, a
high pressure ridge continues to exit e`ward before a cold front
sweeps e`ward through northern oh and nw pa late friday morning
through evening. behind the cold front, a ridge builds from the
upper midwest and vicinity through daybreak saturday.

abundant cloud cover and low-level waa behind the warm front
and ahead of the cold front should be accompanied by lows
reaching mainly the mid 30`s to mid 40`s around daybreak friday.
very weak or calm surface winds and sufficient humidity at/near
the surface may allow stratus to expand downward to the surface
via nocturnal cooling and yield at least patchy fog formation
after midnight tonight and through daybreak friday, especially
from roughly i-86 at the ny/pa line to marion, oh and points
south in our cwa. a few peeks of sunshine and continued low-level
waa ahead of the cold front should allow friday`s daytime highs
to reach the upper 40`s to mid 50`s. any fog will dissipate by
late morning, following the onset of diurnal convective mixing
of the boundary layer. for friday night, low-level caa behind
the cold front should allow lows to reach mainly the lower to
upper 30`s around daybreak saturday.

dry weather is expected to persist for the time being as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the departing surface ridge
and a rather dry atmospheric column at/near 5kft to 8kft msl
contributes to a dry warm front passage. however, after midnight
tonight, isolated rain showers are possible in northern oh,
roughly along and south of the u.s. route 30 corridor. then on
friday into friday night, additional isolated to scattered rain
showers should occur, especially in roughly the southern-half of
our cwa. precip overnight tonight through friday night will be
associated with at least one of the following: moist isentropic
ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes; low-level frontogenetical
deformation aloft and associated moist ascent over/near the oh
valley given the expected evolution of the weather pattern at
the surface and aloft over the midwest, great lakes, and
vicinity; convergence/moist ascent along the cold front. precip
associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front is still
expected to begin to exit our region generally from west to east
friday evening and complete its exit from our cwa by daybreak
saturday. sufficient caa at the surface and aloft may allow rain
to mix with or change to wet snow before precip ends, especially
in nw pa. any snow accumulations are expected to be a trace.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
during this time period, an amplifying ridge aloft should build
from the southern great plains and eventually the central and
northern plains as well. at the surface, the ridge should
continue to affect our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from the western great lakes to the central
appalachians. dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. intervals of sunshine amidst continued
low-level caa should be accompanied by late afternoon highs in
the 40`s on saturday. given the projected track of the surface
high pressure center, low-level waa should impact our region
saturday night through sunday night and allow a rather
moisture-starved warm front to sweep ne`ward through our cwa
saturday night. overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s
to mid 30`s during the predawn hours of sunday morning. a mainly
clear to partly cloudy sky, overall, should contribute to late
afternoon highs in the upper 40`s to mid 50`s on sunday. during
sunday night, lows should reach mainly the lower 30`s to lower
40`s around daybreak monday.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
on monday, the aforementioned ridge aloft should crest e`ward
over our region as the surface portion of the ridge exits
e`ward. current odds now favor fair weather on monday. late
afternoon highs should reach the upper 40`s to mid 50`s. during
monday night through thanksgiving, cyclonic flow aloft and
embedded shortwave troughs should impact the lake erie region,
upper oh valley, and vicinity. this flow aloft should be mainly
sw`erly to w`erly, but should shift to nw`erly on thanksgiving,
when the axis of a particularly-strong shortwave trough should move
e`ward through our area. at the surface, net troughing should impact
our region monday night through thanksgiving. in addition, a cold
front associated with a rather strong shortwave trough should sweep
generally e`ward through our cwa tuesday night through wednesday.

overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30`s to mid 40`s
around daybreak tuesday and be followed by daytime highs in the
50`s as low-level waa continues in our region. lows should reach
mainly the upper 30`s to mid 40`s overnight tuesday night and
be followed by daytime highs in the upper 40`s to lower 50`s on
wednesday. the warmest highs on wednesday should occur farther
east in our cwa, prior to the cold front passage. caa at the
surface and aloft should occur in earnest behind the cold front.
this caa regime should contribute to lows reaching mainly the
mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak thanksgiving morning
and daytime highs reaching only the mid 30`s to lower 40`s for
the holiday.

periods of showers are expected monday night through
thanksgiving due, in part to the following: moist isentropic
ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes; convergence and moist
ascent along surface trough axes and the cold front. behind the
cold front, a sufficiently-cold/moist mean low-level flow over
and downwind of ~8c lake erie should become established and
support lake-effect precip generation wednesday through thanksgiving,
which has been a signal in nwp model guidance for at least the
past 48-hours. the direction of the mean low-level flow remains
highly uncertain, but the latest available runs of the gem and
ecmwf models, which are typically quite accurate and reliable,
suggest the mean low-level flow will primarily be w`erly.
something to monitor closely in the coming days. given expected
evolution of the atmospheric column, including the vertical
profile of wet-bulb temperature, rain should be the predominant
precip type monday night through wednesday. however, rain may
mix with wet snow at times, especially monday night into tuesday
morning in interior nw pa. caa at the surface and aloft should
contribute to rain mixing with or changing to snow in a general
west to east manner wednesday night through thanksgiving.
accumulating snow is possible. while it is way too soon to
discuss specific snow amounts, we will continue to closely
monitor trends in deterministic models and ensemble forecast
systems, including probabilistic forecasts from nbm, over the
coming days.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
overall mvfr to ifr ceilings will be around during the next 24
hours. conditions vary from vfr to lifr early this afternoon.
yng is slowly coming out of lifr ceilings from morning dense
fog. conditions at yng will only improve into the lower end of
mvfr later this afternoon and evening before ifr ceilings move
back in late tonight into early friday morning. other taf sites
like tol, mfd, and cak will stay mostly in the lower end mvfr
ceilings through the evening with the potential of ifr ceilings
coming back later tonight into friday morning. elsewhere
ceilings will be in the mvfr to lower end mvfr throughout much
of this taf period. there will be some gradual improvement
towards late friday morning and midday or by the end of this 24
hours taf period but staying in the mvfr category. some light
fog may be possible again later tonight for mfd between 2sm and
5sm. also light fog may be possible again at cak and yng between
3sm and 5sm. winds will remain light and variable becoming
southwesterly around 5 knots later in the period.


outlook...non-vfr conditions may persist with low stratus and
scattered showers friday into friday night.

&&

.marine...
the general weather pattern will favor several wind shifts over lake
erie due to the passage of frontal boundaries. winds are southerly 5
to 10 knots this afternoon/evening but will become southwesterly 10
to 20 knots overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. waves will
start out 1 to 2 feet but build late tonight 2 to 4 feet in the open
water for a brief period. winds will continue southwesterly 10 to 15
knots on friday becoming westerly later in the day. waves on friday
will be 1 to 3 feet. northerly winds will return behind a weak cold
front friday night 10 to 15 knots and continue into saturday with
waves of 1 to 3 feet. winds will become southwesterly saturday night
and increase 10 to 15 knots ahead of another approaching cold front.
southwest winds will further increase 15 to 20 knots on sunday with
waves 2 to 5 feet. headlines are not expected through saturday, but
small craft advisories may be needed on sunday. high pressure builds
back in sunday night into monday with lighter winds and decreasing
waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
085
fxus63 kiwx 201931
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
231 pm est thu nov 20 2025

.key messages...

- areas of drizzle and fog continue into friday.

- rain chances friday afternoon through friday night, with
highest chances (60-80%) mainly south of us-24.

- mild and pleasant weather this weekend. more active pattern by
midweek with colder temperatures arriving by thanksgiving.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 227 pm est thu nov 20 2025

low-level warm air advection is overspreading the area as we are
sandwiched between broad ridging over the gulf and shallow
troughing moving through manitoba. the morning hours have been
plagued by fog/drizzle and overall gloomy weather. winds should
eventually mix the lowest of layers out over the next couple of
hours, but 12z href sounding profiles suggest a moist inversion
layer will likely persist through the day. given that and weak
low- level accent, will keep fog/drizzle in the forecast with
the expectation that visibilities may be more impacted tomorrow
morning than they were today.

tomorrow, forcing from the right front entrance of a departing jet,
coupled with isentropic accent and associated moisture plume
coming up from the south, will lead to stratiform rain with the
pop gradient going from north (10-20% s michigan) to south
(60-80%). generally only 0.1 to 0.25 inches is expected. given
the cloud cover and moisture throughout the day, will keep high
temps on the lower side of guidance. surface high pressure
builds in over the weekend with clearing skies and mild temps.

focus shifts to next week where a more active pattern looks to set
up across the region. the first round of precipitation looks to be
from a shortwave that will be moving out of the desert southwest and
meeting up with the polar jet over the northern plains. rain will be
the precipitation type with monday night into tuesday`s rain. the
main area of cold area will likely not arrive until wednesday, which
will usher in below average temperatures from thanksgiving and into
the weekend. while nothing major looks to be on the horizon, as
always, be sure to check the forecast next week if you have
thanksgiving travel plans as the active pattern and cold air will
support snow chances during the peak travel period.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1130 am est thu nov 20 2025

weak warm advection over a saturated inversion may allow for
times of drizzle and visibilities reduced to 1-3 miles to
persist through the period, mainly at ksbn. light winds and
cigs generally ifr to low mvfr are not likely to improve until
the next shortwave stirs up the atmosphere on friday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...norman
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
740
fxus63 kdtx 201957
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
257 pm est thu nov 20 2025

.key messages...

- mainly dry and cloudy the rest of today with temperatures holding
near-steady overnight.

- pockets of light rain or drizzle possible late tonight through
early friday morning, moreso for the tri-cities and thumb areas.

- mainly dry conditions again this weekend with a warming trend by
sunday.

- increased precipitation chances arrive during the first half of
next week.

&&

.discussion...

warmer air filters into lower michigan this afternoon due to return
flow from surface high pressure approaching the mid-atlantic.
surface winds veer wsw this evening and overnight, reflecting 925 mb
flow trends. temperatures should level off by midnight due to warm
advection. meanwhile, a low pressure system deepens and tracks east
into southern hudson bay. the system`s cold front gets shoved across
the region early friday morning as shortwave troughing within the
base of the polar jet deamplifies after interference due to spill-
over mid-level ridging exiting the plains. local precipitation
response appears marginal given an abundance of dry air aloft.
however, sufficient low-level saturation may promote a more
favorable environment for light rain/sprinkles before the front
clears out, around 13z friday. qpf shouldn`t exceed a hundredth for
most areas, more likely for the tri-cities and the tip of the thumb.

southeast michigan remains positioned along the interface between
thermal troughing over ontario and greater thicknesses encompassing
the southeast, including portions of the ohio valley on friday. 850
mb temperatures should generally reside in the low to mid single
digits within a south to north thermal gradient. expect highs above
climatological normals for most areas, ranging from the upper 40s to
low 50s. surface ridge expands from the dakotas, centering over the
upper midwest by friday evening. this veers gradient flow nnw friday
night as 1021 mb surface high centers over central wisconsin. just
to the south, a low amplitude shortwave slides through the northern
reaches of the ohio valley leading to shower development. latest
model consensus affords higher confidence in the dry continental
airmass winning out for all of southern lower, therefore dry pops
were included for almost the entire cwa. the one exception resides
along the immediate mi/oh border, with a thin stripe of slight
chance.

a more seasonable airmass settles returns on saturday with highs in
the mid 40s. broader anticyclonic influence ensures dry conditions.
flow flips southerly for the second half of the weekend as the
oscillatory pattern in temperature trends persists. low-level thetae
advection then surges into the great lakes on sunday. not expecting
much in the way of rainfall with the passing trough given the lack
of deeper column moisture, marked by pwats of around 0.25 inches.
next opportunity for meaningful precipitation comes early next week
after a stalled southern stream pacific closed low ejects into
central conus, possibly phasing with a northern stream wave as the
synoptic pattern becomes more progressive. the milder airmass likely
lingers through mid-week.

&&

.marine...

southwesterly winds continue to gradually increase through the
evening in response to low pressure tracking over northern ontario.
strongest winds develop late evening-early tonight when gusts peak
around 20-25kts across northern/central portions of lake huron.
winds over the southern half of the region hold closer the 15-20kts.
associated cold front crosses the region late tonight offering
scattered rain shower chances as well as ushering in renewed colder
nw flow. with the region residing on the fringe of this system, only
modest cold advection follows keeping gusts sub 30kts across the
northern and central portions of lake huron with the southern half
of the region peaking closer to 20kts. some higher wave action clips
the tip of the thumb friday night warranting the need for small
craft advisories. high pressure then briefly works in by friday
night bringing light winds to start the weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1234 pm est thu nov 20 2025

aviation...

surface high pressure retreating out of the area with an increase in
westerly kinematics has resulted in return flow and deep saturation
within the lowest 4-5 kft agl. prevailing mvfr ceilings are in place
across much of the area with a few brief exceptions. based on
satellite trends will prefer mvfr conditions to hold throughout the
day into tonight. midlevel thetae advection is forecasted this
evening in advance of the cold front which will only bolster the
ceilings tonight. the cold front is forecasted to pass through mbs
at approximately 12z, then through the detroit terminals sometime
between 15-18z. lower confidence does exist at the end of the period
and beyond as moisture could become too shallow to maintain a cloud
deck. however, some slowing of the front is expected across far
southern lower michigan and prefer prevailing ceilings for the
detroit terminals.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in cigs aob 5kft today and tonight. medium confidence friday
afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.