Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
160
fxus61 kcle 110541
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
141 am edt sun oct 11 2026

.what has changed...
winds have further trended up along the lakeshore from cuyahoga
to erie county, pa tonight and sunday morning. wind gusts of 35
to 45 mph are likely at times. rainfall amounts have slightly
decreased tonight and sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight
through sunday associated with the remnants of isaias. winds
will be highest along the lakeshore from cuyahoga to erie
county, pa, where gusts of 35-45 mph are possible.

2) unseasonable warmth monday and tuesday before a cold front
moves in late tuesday, bringing some showers and thunderstorms.

3) cooler and unsettled the rest of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
quiet and pleasantly mild conditions will continue for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening as surface high pressure
over new england gradually departs east. this will start to
strengthen the southeasterly pressure gradient between the high
and the remnant low of isaias, so some gusts up to 20 or 25 mph
are possible by mid evening, especially where downsloping is
favored in a se low-level flow set up from northern cuyahoga
county to northern erie county, pa. otherwise, clouds will just
continue to increase.

the main impacts from isaias will occur tonight and sunday as a
strong mid/upper trough progressing into the west coast deepens
mid-level southwesterly flow across the central conus. this
mid-level jet will start to eject the remnants of isaias ene at
a pretty good clip. the remnant low is currently moving into
middle tennessee and will lift across west virgina sunday
afternoon before exiting the mid atlantic coast sunday night. in
terms of winds, breezy conditions are still expected as the
pressure gradient tightens and an area of 35-40 knot 850-925 mb
winds moves overhead late tonight and sunday morning. however,
rap forecast soundings show conditions becoming fairly saturated
rapidly after 06z, and this combined with a slowly weakening
wind field will limit most gusts to around 30 mph. the exception
will be where the se low-level flow set up leads to downsloping
from northern cuyahoga county to northern erie county, pa. this
will locally increase wind gusts, so gusts to 35-45 mph are
possible there. winds will increase after 06z, with peak gusts
in the 08 to 18z sunday window. winds will turn n to ne behind
the departing low late sunday afternoon and rapidly diminish. in
terms of rain, the shield of steady rain is still expected to
lift across the region tonight and sunday morning, with
additional showers wrapping around the back side sunday
afternoon. however, qpf is trending lower due to a slightly
farther se track of the low and mid-level dry air wrapping
farther north. some locally heavy convective banding is still
possible, especially along a kcak to kyng line, but most of the
rain will be light to moderate stratiform. there remains an
unusually high amount of qpf variability in href and rrfs
guidance and individual members, including run to run flips, so
confidence in exact rainfall amounts is lower than normal. the
overall trend has been lower, so used a blend of nbm and wpc for
the final qpf forecast which is a close compromise of href and
rrfs ensemble qpf. this gives a few tenths to 0.25 inch in nw
ohio, 0.50 to 0.75 inch in north central ohio, and 0.75 to 1
inch in ne ohio (east of i-77) and nw pa. probabilities for
locally higher amounts are greatest near that kcak to kyng line.
these rainfall amounts and low stream flows combined with drying
ground should prevent any flooding except for areas that may
have blocked drains or culverts. the showers will start to move
in from south to north after 03z, with the steadiest rain in the
06z to 15z sunday window. the rain will be more intermittent
sunday afternoon as the low pulls away.

after drying out sunday evening, it is possible to see some
additional scattered, light showers sunday night as an inverted
surface trough and some low-level moisture hangs back across the
area. this is shown by a few href members, so added low pops
sunday night. another showers will quickly end by monday
morning.

key message 2...
broad mid/upper ridging will briefly flex over the eastern conus
monday and tuesday as the aforementioned western conus trough
evolves into a cut off low. this combined with surface high
pressure settling over the mid atlantic region will support deep
southerly flow and well above normal temperatures. look for
highs to reach the 75 to 80 degree range in nw ohio monday and
upper 60s to low 70s in ne ohio and nw pa. most of the cwa will
see mid 70s to low 80s tuesday. a shortwave dropping through the
central/eastern great lakes late tuesday into wednesday will
push a cold front into the region. this front is trending slower
as the cut off low over the west keeps mid/upper ridging in
place across the tennessee valley and southeast conus. the front
should still manage to push through late tuesday or tuesday
night before stalling near the ohio valley, so showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. there will be
some instability ahead of the front to support thunder given the
warmth, but a later trend should limit any strong/severe
potential. will need to watch for gusty winds though given
favorable shear.

key message 3...
as mentioned above, the front will become quasi-stationary near
the ohio valley by wednesday and linger through the end of the
week as it runs into lingering mid/upper ridging. high pressure
over the northern great lakes will bring seasonably cooler and
drier overall air, but occasional showers are still possible
given the boundary nearby. the next more significant system may
come friday as a stronger northern stream mid/upper trough
captures the old western conus cut off low and potentially leads
to a strong frontal passage across the great lakes. this would
bring better chances for rain, gusty winds, and potentially the
coolest air of the season so far late friday into saturday if
it materializes.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
conditions across the region are currently vfr though are
expected to deteriorate within the next few hours as low
ceilings progress northward. there will be a transition period
as ceilings drop to mvfr then ifr by 10-12z for most terminals.
kcle and keri should take longer to drop down to non-vfr
ceilings with downsloping assisting in keeping it elevated.
kcle will drop by around 20z this afternoon. there`s low
confidence in when keri will drop to non-vfr, though should stay
elevated through the taf period. once ceilings drop to ifr, it
will persist through the taf period as there will be periodic
rain/drizzle across the region keeping them down. ifr visibility
is possible at times during heavier showers, though should not
last long when it occurs.

winds will be out of the east, 080-130, at 8-13 knots across
the region into the morning before weakening to around 5-10
knots. keri will have a more of a southeasterly, 130-150, wind
and with downsloping, could see gusts upwards of 20 knots
through 17z. winds will gradually back to be out of the
northeast, 020-050, during this afternoon and remain 5-10 knots.
after 00z, winds will shift to be more northwesterly, 310-340,
and weaken to less than 5 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected in low ceilings sunday night into
monday, with improving conditions from west to east throughout
monday. non-vfr possible tuesday and wednesday in
showers/thunderstorms associated with a cold front.

&&

.marine...
southeasterly winds will increase on lake erie tonight and
sunday morning as the remnants of isaias pass to the south.
winds in the 15-20 knot range are mostly expected, with periods
of 20-25 knots possible from avon point to ripley. issued
marginal small craft advisories tonight from avon point to
ripley, with the best potential for criteria to be reach at
times between about 02 and 10z. winds will rapidly decrease
sunday morning, becoming ne at 5-10 knots by late afternoon then
nw at 5-10 knots sunday night.

light winds are expected monday as high pressure builds in
before ssw winds increase to 15-25 knots monday night and
tuesday ahead of a cold front. winds will turn nw behind the
front tuesday night and decrease before a period of possibly
stronger ne winds by late wednesday and thursday as high
pressure tries to build from the north.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...23
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
918
fxus63 kiwx 110613
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
213 am edt sun oct 11 2026

.key messages...

- a few light showers may occur in areas mainly along and east
of interstate 69 this morning.

- warm on monday and tuesday with highs generally in the 80s.

- low chances (10-30%) for a few showers and storms late monday
night into tuesday morning north of the toll road.

- additional chances (40-60%) of showers arrives wednesday into
thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 am edt sun oct 11 2026

upper low from remnants of tc isaias centered across western tn with
the bulk of the moisture surging northeast. across the area,
inverted trough/weak deformation zone has allowed for rather
lackluster development of showers with a few spots seeing trace
amounts or maybe a few hundredths. while a small window still exists
over the next 6 to 9 hours for a bit more coverage, doesn`t look
overly promising with pops lowered into chc range. any precip should
exit by afternoon, but clouds are likely to linger in eastern areas
which will limit high temperatures in these areas.

925 mb moisture will be slow to depart this evening and into the
overnight hours. if clearing can happen fast enough overnight in
eastern areas, overnight lows should drop below crossover temps with
at least some patchy fog developing. although these factors seem
logical, lack of rainfall may limit the boundary layer moisture
somewhat. will leave patchy mention for now.

yet another strong surge of waa commences monday and tuesday ahead
of a wave. main sfc low tracks north of the area with a cool front
trying to move into northern areas, which will bring somewhat of a
temp gradient with temps well in the 80s south and 70s north. given
the low track will be north and moisture somewhat limited, any low
end pops will be confined mainly in lower mi. the frontal boundary
will drift south wed into thur which may bring slightly better
chances for showers as waves travel west to east. models continue to
vary on whether northern and southern stream troughs will phase with
gfs/canadian phasing while ec keep main southern stream wave cutoff
to the west. this not only brings uncertainty to precip chances, but
also the degree of caa in the wake of the cold front on friday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 123 am edt sun oct 11 2026

tropical moisture continues to slowly lift n/ne through the
morning hours and expect ceiling heights to lower at both
terminals but upstream obs indicate this is taking slightly
longer than models suggest. for kfwa, rain showers may be more
limited than previously expected but low-end mvfr ceilings are
still likely by 09z with a brief period of ifr possible 14-18z.
ksbn will be right on the edge of the mvfr ceilings roughly
11-15z but decided to hold vfr for now given upstream obs. both
terminals clear out by late afternoon/evening. fog is possible
at kfwa monday morning but likely just beyond this forecast
window.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
048
fxus63 kdtx 110332
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1132 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

.key messages...

- much warmer today with temperatures in the upper 70s.

- next chance of rain arrives sunday, focused over the
southeasternmost areas, tied to the remnants of isaias.

- very mild, dry again monday with highs in the upper 70s to 80.

- scattered shower chances monday night-tuesday tied to a passing
cold front. this front brings a return to a more typical fall
pattern for the mid to late week period.

&&

.aviation...

remnants from hurricane isaias will lift across the southern and
central appalachians tonight and sunday. the northwestern edge of
the rain shield is forecast to extend partially into se mi on
sunday. weakening of the ascent will only support light rain. the
combination of low level moisture influx and evaporational cooling
of the low levels will result in high probabilities for ifr and mvfr
ceilings during much of the day sunday, with the exception of mbs
which will remain more entrenched in the drier air. recent model
trends continue to indicate a rapid northward expansion of mvfr and
ifr cloud bases from southern ohio into metro detroit during the 08z
to 12z time frame. upstream observational trends continue to lag the
onset slightly, which continues to suggest holding timing of the ifr
conditions into metro detroit around 13z.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

discussion...

main weather story of today is the landfall of isaias last evening
and its ongoing extratropical transition. while se michigan is
spared of the bulk of this system, the shield of high cloud outside
represents its northern edge. while moisture quality is expected to
degrade as the gulf moisture stream cuts off, models are still
generating light rain potential sunday with a thickening cloud deck
aloft. diabatic cooling leads to a cooler day sunday with
temperatures in the cloud shield holding below 70 degrees. slightly
warmer temperatures expected further inland as the remnants of isais
pivot east into the mid-atlantic by sunday afternoon. much drier air
then fills into the great lakes sunday night-monday, which currently
stretches from the southern plains to the upper midwest. strong
subsidence signature observed in 12z soundings (e.g. top/lmn/oun)
should be the airmass that advects into se michigan sunday night,
which combined with a moistened boundary layer/longer mid-october
nights could result in fog development monday morning.

drier day than expected monday as brief ridging slides overhead.
winds shift to the southwest with the passage of the ridge axis,
quickly leading to warm advection into se michigan monday. highs
thus warm into the upper 70s with highs possibly breaking 80 degrees
tuesday. the catch to this is another opportunity for rain beginning
late monday night and lingering through mid-week. this comes as
moisture pools along the deformation axis to our north, while return
flow sets up to the south. increasing llj winds monday night bring
in the initial wave of mid-level moisture, followed by increasing
synoptic support through the day tuesday as the llj, surface
low/cold front, and finally a strong ~110 knot upper level jet work
into se michigan. while moisture depth is not overly impressive on
its own, multiple lift mechanisms through the day will compensate
for this at least partially to keep rain chances going.
thermodynamic profiles show a strong elevated mixed layer (mid level
lapse rates ~7.0 c/km), so cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder
particularly as the front comes through during peak heating. swody3
has designated general thunder for most of the state.

passage of the cold front establishes strong cold advection across
the region between 00z wed thru 00z thu. for reference the 10.06z
ecmwf has h8 temps dropping from 15 c to 7 c. this brings surface
temps back toward normal values for mid-october by mid-week (mid-60s
highs and mid 40s temps). this cooler airmass is likely to keeping
cloud cover and possibly lake induced showers around through
wednesday given still warm lake temperatures in the teens and n/nw
flow. high pressure will eventually erode moisture ahead of a strong
low that draws even cooler temperatures into se michigan by next
weekend.

marine...

remnants from hurricane isaias has strengthened the pressure
gradient across the great lakes, resulting in breezy southeast flow
that will continue into tonight. gusts 20 to 25 knots are expected
through south and central lake huron, sporadically peaking around 30
knots over north-central lake huron where the fetch is more
favorable. small craft advisories remain in effect from port austin
to port sanilac with the elevated wave heights in effect. sporadic
gust to gales will be possible across north-central lake huron,
however, confidence in achieving gales remains very low noting high
stability over the lakes which will greatly hamper or nullify any
mixing of stronger winds aloft.

breezy conditions will subside through tomorrow as a ridge of high
pressure fills in. remnant moisture from the tropical system will
also bring the chance for rain showers overnight. on and off rain
showers and some low-end storm chances will be possible through next
week as a couple of systems moves through.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mv
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.