Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 pm est sat dec 13 2025

...near term update and 0z taf discussion...

.synopsis...
a trough lingers near lake erie through sunday. a ridge will
build into the ohio valley and into our region sunday night
through monday before departing to the east coast midweek.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
- lake-effect snow warning remains in effect for nwpa until 7
am est monday morning.
- lake-effect snow warning remains in effect for the primary
snowbelt of neoh including cuyahoga county until 7 am est
monday morning.
- winter weather advisory remains in effect for the secondary
snowbelt of neoh until 7 am est monday morning.
- winter weather advisory remains in effect for stark and
mahoning counties until 7 pm est sunday evening.
- winter weather advisory across portions of northern and
central ohio remains in effect until 7 am est sunday morning.

7:25 pm update:

the clipper is producing mainly light snow across the area with
early reports from between 5pm and 7pm ranging from 0.5 to 2.5"
across most of the area, with closer to 4" already per one
spotter in knox county. it is still snowing, with locations east
of i-71 likely to add another inch or two (towards youngstown)
of snow from the clipper before it quickly exits into the
overnight. locations west of i-71 are already on the downtrend
and likely don`t have more than another tr-1" left. parts of
erie county pa have also seen higher reports upwards of 5" due
to lake effect snow today. overall the clipper is performing
near expectations, with snow amounts near the northeastern
lakeshore perhaps off to a slightly slower start.

as alluded to above, the clipper snow will not be long for this
area as the jet support quickly shifts to the east over the next
few hours and as dry low-level air advects in from the
northwest. roads are varied across the area with secondary and
less traveled roads generally worse off than the main roads.
outside of the lake effect, expect slow but generally manageable
travel to continue tonight with snow tapering off over the next
few hours but cold temperatures doing road crews no favors.
unless there is a push from surrounding wfos to drop advisories
for the clipper early we will likely leave them up through the
night to account for continued less-than-stellar road
conditions even as the snow winds down.

as for the lake enhanced/effect snow, wsw flow banding did hit
northern erie county pa half decently today, bringing reports of
2 to 5" of snowfall there. otherwise, have seen some moderate
lake enhanced snow develop near the cleveland area and up the
i-90 corridor in northeast oh this evening amid westerly flow. a
subtle trough will push onshore over the next hour or two
(through about 10 pm) and should push the lake-enhanced snow
slightly farther south across the cleveland area and snowbelt.
there may be a brief lull closer to midnight as some brief
subsidence moves overhead. however, signs point to a couple of
bands (perhaps as far west as lorain county) taking shape in
west-northwest flow pre-dawn sunday.

good synoptic support, upstream moisture connections, and
moderate to extreme lake-induced instability beneath the core
of the upper trough will all favor lake effect snow on sunday.
the one potential downside is there will be a few subtle troughs
that push through, so winds will be shifting and bands may
struggle to sit in a spot for too long at a time...however,
expect very squall conditions across the primary and secondary
snowbelt, perhaps pushing as far south as canton and youngstown
at times, on sunday. wind gusts will also pick up to 25-35 mph
which will further reduce visibility in bands and blow snow on
the ground around. still am not confident enough in band
placement and persistence on sunday to upgrade any additional
counties to lake effect snow warnings at this exact moment.
however, am worried about signs of a band from lorain county
into medina-summit-western portage at times, especially late
tonight through about midday sunday, and then a band perhaps
from the eastern cleveland suburbs that extends into portage at
times mainly during the day sunday. also will need to see if a
lake huron connected band may clip trumbull county later sunday
afternoon or evening. these will all be things we closely
evaluate with incoming guidance.

previous discussion...

the coldest weather of this winter season so far is moving into
our region this weekend. there is a large and strong upper
level trough that is currently digging out across the great
lakes and much of the eastern u.s. this upper level trough is
bringing down another arctic blast and will crank up the lake
effect snow machine today through sunday night and monday
morning.

a rather decent clipper system is currently rounding the base of
the upper level and tracking through the ohio valley this
afternoon into tonight. widespread system snow will impact the
entire area this afternoon into tonight. 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall is expected for locations outside of the snowbelt and
areas that are not in the winter weather advisory from the
clipper system. on the backside of the clipper system tonight,
arctic airmass will move over the great lakes tonight. the
widespread system snow will transition to lake snow shower and
squalls later tonight and continue through sunday night or
monday morning. 850 mb temps will fall tonight into sunday to
around -22c if not a little colder. both the primary and
secondary snowbelt will see the lake effect snow later tonight
through early monday morning. overall the areas of the snowbelt
that have winter weather advisories will see generally 3 to 7
inches of snowfall total from both the system snow and lake
effect snow through sunday night. for areas of the snowbelt that
have a lake effect snow warning will see generally 6 to 12
inches of snowfall today from both system snow and the lake
effect through monday morning. there could be few spots in the
snowbelt of nwpa that end up over a foot of snowfall total
through monday morning.

the other impact from this arctic blast will the very cold
weather and wind chills to deal with. overnight low
temperatures tonight will drop down into the single digits away
from the immediate lakeshore. most areas tomorrow will not make
it out of the teens for daytime high temperatures. sunday night
low temperatures will be back down in the single digits and
lower teens. wind chill values will be -10f to 10 f later
tonight through monday morning.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
there will be break in this recent active winter pattern for
early next week. the deep upper level trough over the great
lakes and ohio valley will lift out and the weather pattern will
become will more zonal from west to east. a large high pressure
system will slowly track across the eastern u.s. monday and
tuesday before exiting the east coast late tuesday evening. the
cold airmass over the ohio valley and great lakes region will
slowly modify early next week. high temps on monday will still
be very cold in the lower to middle 20s. the high temps by
tuesday will crack the freezing mark for most locations into the
lower and middle 30s.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
the slow warming trend will continue for the middle and end of
next week. the fast pace and active weather pattern will be
somewhat zonal with several more storm systems riding the
jetstream from west to east along or near the u.s./canada
border. on the front end these weather systems will be a brief
warm up to above temperatures followed by another shot of colder
air brought from canada. we actually have more potential and
higher chances of rain rather than wintry weather with these
systems late next week into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
steady snow with a clipper bringing ifr to lifr vsby and
generally mvfr ceilings to the entire area, outside of extreme
northwest oh (such as tol) where dry low-level air has allowed
vfr to mainly prevail. snow with the clipper will exit to the
east-southeast through 5 or 6z, allowing most terminals to
briefly return to vfr vsby with mvfr ceilings. attention quickly
turns to lake effect, which will impact eri and cle most
frequently through early sunday evening. however, as winds turn
northwest and an upper trough swings through, bands will get
pushed well-inland towards cak and yng later sunday morning
through early sunday evening as well. as always, lake effect
will bring widely variable conditions across much of northeast
oh and northwest pa late tonight through sunday with ifr to lifr
vsby and quick snow accumulations beneath bands, with little
vsby restriction outside of bands. outside of the lake effect
off of lake erie, some flurries or light snow showers may drift
into the tol/fdy/mfd area at times late tonight through sunday
afternoon, though vfr vsby will largely prevail. mvfr ceilings
will be fairly predominant across the area through sunday.

west to northwest winds of 6-12kt with a few 20kt gusts along
the lake erie shoreline continue tonight, shifting a bit more
northwesterly and increasing to 10-18kt with gusts 25-30kt late
sunday morning and afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are possible with lake effect snow
showers in northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania
through monday night.

&&

.marine...
winds across the lake this afternoon have been steadily
increasing and currently are at 20-25 knots and gusting up to 30
knots out of the west to southwest and as a result, waves have
built to 5-8 feet. the small craft advisory is still in effect
for the entire nearshore zones for lake erie due to the elevated
winds and waves. additionally, with the western winds, there is
potential for low water east of the islands this afternoon into
the early evening. as of 230pm, the water level is at 6.3
inches below the low water datum with the critical mark at 8
inches below low water datum. if the water levels do go below
the critical mark, it will be brief as winds will begin to
subside going into the evening tonight. another low probability
hazard to be aware of is freezing spray in the central and
eastern basins. water temperatures have dropped down below 40
degrees across much of the lake and with air temperatures
dropping into the upper teens and winds staying above 20 knots,
there will be a marginal risk for freezing spray through sunday
night.

winds will start to veer to become more northwesterly saturday night
through sunday night and begin to weaken briefly by monday morning
to less than 20 knots. there will be a timeframe during the day
sunday where winds will increase up to 30 knots across the central
basin, but will decrease by the evening. during the day monday,
winds will increase out of the southwest with high pressure building
to the south and a low pressure moving to the north. winds will be
25-30 knots during this time and begin to weaken monday night down
to 10-15 knots by tuesday morning. waves will also be elevated at 6-
9 feet, but mainly in the open water zones with the southwesterly
flow. winds will increase again to 20-30 knots across the lake on
wednesday with a low pressure system moving to the north. there is
increasing potential for gales across the lake on thursday as a
stronger low pressure system will move north of the region near the
end of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 am est monday for ohz010-
020>023.
lake effect snow warning until 7 am est monday for ohz011>014-
089.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est sunday for ohz029>031-
036>038-047.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est sunday for ohz032-033.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 7 am est monday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 7 am est monday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...77
near term...77/sullivan
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
711 pm est sat dec 13 2025

.key messages...

- a period of accumulating snow (1-3", locally higher far south)
for areas mainly along and south of us 30 in in, and areas
south of us 24 in nw oh, through the early evening.

- 1-3" of lake effect snow expected tonight into sunday morning in
northwest in and southwest mi.

- below zero wind chills tonight and sunday night, with values
of -15 to -20 south of us-30 tonight.

- warmer temperatures by tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 133 pm est sat dec 13 2025

accumulating snow moving through the southern half of the area
this afternoon into early this evening. a mid level perturbation
and associated corridor of pacific moisture is driving this
swath of snow, with noted baroclinic enhancement within the
right entrance region of a ~140 kt upper level jet. these
features are phasing with an impressive polar vort lobe flirting
with the northern shores of lake superior. the quick clipper
movement likely holds snow totals to 1-3" for the southern half
of the forecast area, with locally 3-5" up against our bordering
counties with ind. sfc temps in the mid-upper teens will make
for slick travel into the early evening.

arctic air fully wraps in tonight into sunday with dangerous wind
chills and les in our northwest flow snow belts. strong dry
advection from the upper midwest and a low dgz favor small flake
size within the le plume despite impressive delta t magnitudes,
though there could be a period later this evening into early sunday
morning where better flake size will be possible. overall
expectations remain unchanged with snow amounts generally in the 1-
3" range in the south bend area and southwest mi. reduced
visibilities and snow covered roads will create hazardous travel
in spots. this lake plume likely keeps wind chills from
reaching advisory criteria (15 below or colder) for most
locations along and north of us 30, with areas to the south in
in experiencing wind chills as cold as -20f sunday am with no
changes to the cold weather advisory.

a warm advection regime develops sunday night and continues
through mid week as sfc high pressure settles off to the
southeast under flattening flow aloft. with that said, sub-zero
wind chills will persist into sunday night and monday morning as
the near sfc arctic wedge is slow to erode with increasing
southwest winds. probs for advisory or colder wind chills by
this time are relatively low per href/nbm probs, but any minor
adjustments to temps and winds could easier push values to -15f
or colder for a time. dry otherwise as waa induced snow likely
bypasses northeast later sun night-monday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 650 pm est sat dec 13 2025

the system snow is currently diminishing for both taf sites and
will continue to do so through the remainder of the evening
tonight. as this disturbance moves eastward caa will be on the
increase within a west to northwesterly flow and this will lead
to a transition to lake effect snow showers for ksbn which will
mainly be light in nature however a few bursts of heavier
showers will be possible through 20z sunday before diminishing.
during the heavier showers and expected small snowflake size
some vsby reductions down to ifr will be possible but the main
expectation will be for mvfr vsbys and cigs for ksbn through
20z sun when cigs/vsbys return to vfr category. for kfwa, with
the system snow moving out the expectation will be for just some
light snowshowers with perhaps some light snow showers from the
steel mill to the northwest of the terminal possible. vsbys
should improve to vfr by 01z sun and cigs will remain mvfr
through 23z sun before improving to vfr. temperatures will be
very cold for airport operations with wind chills down to around
-15 degrees f overnight into sunday morning with the gusty west
to northwesterly winds with gusts around 20 kts for both taf
sites.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from midnight tonight to 1 pm est sunday
for inz013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for inz020-
022-023-032>034.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
648 pm est sat dec 13 2025

.key messages...

- bitter cold temperatures for the weekend into monday. the coldest
period will be tonight and sunday morning when actual air
temperatures bottom out at zero to 5f above. expect wind chills to
range between -15f to -10f by sunday morning.

- snow showers along the eastern thumb shoreline on sunday with
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible.

- a dramatic warmup is forecast tuesday to thursday next week with
temps rising over 40 degrees thursday, setting the stage for rain.

&&

.aviation...

a few pockets of mvfr ceilings are holding on this evening along and
north of i-69. greater clearing is anticipated tonight as clouds try
and scatter out in the 03-07z window tonight. very cold airmass
moving across michigan this morning will allow coverage of lake
clouds to expand tomorrow morning. ceilings look like they will be
on the border of mvfr and low vfr for tomorrow. winds will become
gusty out of the northwest to 20-25 knots during the mid morning
through the early afternoon while a few lake effect light snow
showers/flurries also be possible. ptk to mbs is the corridor that
is most likely to see this activity and have introduced a prob30
group starting shortly after 12z tomorrow morning. any snow shower
activity should end mid afternoon. winds ease towards the late
afternoon and early evening.

for dtw...low clouds have become scattered across dtw this evening
and expect this to hold through tonight. bkn to ovc ceilings expand
across metro by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon supported by
the very cold airmass. may see occasional flurries, but chances too
low to include mention at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight, medium tomorrow morning
and afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm est sat dec 13 2025

discussion...

a shortwave pivoting around the base of the upper low sinking into
the northern great lakes is driving a region of frontal ascent and
widespread snow across the ohio valley this afternoon. the high-
based northern reach of the snow shield is currently pivoting along
the stateline where up to a dusting of accumulation will be possible
before light snow tapers off this evening. 925mb temps are analyzed
at -14 to -16c and will continue to fall toward -18c through tonight
as a surge of arctic air overtakes the great lakes. the cold
advection will keep the gradient wind active and prevent the surface
layer from fully decoupling, resulting in lows between 0 and 5f
sunday morning. with the persistent wind around 10 to 15 mph, wind
chill dips as low as -10 to -15f for a few hours overnight.

the core of the coldest air will pass to the south sunday morning
with temperatures rebounding into the lower 20s by sunday afternoon,
though wind chills will remain very cold in the single digits. dcva
attendant to the inbound upper low sends a surface trough north to
south across the state during the morning. models show enough
shallow ascent and supersaturation along this feature to warrant 20-
30% pops north of m-59. just a dusting of fluffy accumulation is
favored with this activity. included a localized 40-60% pop along
the eastern shoreline of the thumb where there is moderate
confidence in the trough sending the lake huron convergence
axis/snow band inland during the day. if this occurs, snow
accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is likely there. another cold night
sunday night with lows around 10f and wind chill near 0f.

the next shortwave passes overhead on monday within energetic
northwest flow, with model trends over the past 24 hours showing a
southwestward shift in forcing, sufficient for light snowfall mainly
during the morning. highest pops are over northern and eastern areas
where the wave and isentropic ascent engage with the nnw-sse
oriented elevated frontal slope. there are some differences among
guidance regarding strength of 700-850mb flow/warming, which will
affect the depth/integrity of the dgz and resultant slrs.
accumulations on the order of 1 to 2 inches in the thumb and a
dusting elsewhere are supported by the bulk of ensemble guidance.
despite rising temps aloft, the low-level thermal trough looks to be
locked in place monday with highs still struggling to break 20f.

a substantial warming trend ensues tuesday into thursday as
pervasive eastern north america troughing gives way to zonal flow
aloft. the next shortwave tracks over the northern great lakes early
wednesday, sending a surface low well north of se mi and inducing a
strong positive thickness trend tuesday into tuesday night. a
trailing cold front passes through on wednesday offering a very low
chance for showers and only weak and short-lived cold advection. a
stronger low dropping in from the canadian prairie then produces an
even stronger warm advective response with high confidence in temps
into the 40s on thursday. widespread showers are likely to accompany
this system.

marine...

the arctic front is now east of the area which has let the cold air
begin to filter into the region through the day. the coldest of the
arctic air will arrive overnight into sunday morning with a
secondary front turning winds a bit more to the northwest from west.
wind speeds will continue to be in the mid 20 knot range with gusts
up to around 30 knots. the northwesterly flow will push the higher
waves along the lake huron shoreline of the thumb resulting in small
craft advisories the rest of the day through sunday night. the cold
airmass and elevated winds will also lead to potential snow squalls
and freezing spray as well during this time. monday will again
feature elevated wind speeds as the next system tracking through
southern canada runs up against a high pressure system centered over
much of the eastern conus. the tightening of the prefrontal gradient
along with cold unstable air will lead to another period of wind
gusts nearing gale force. currently there is a large spread in the
model guidance solutions as to what max gusts will be achievable but
several hours of gales may be possible monday afternoon.

climate...

the record low min temps for sunday, december 14th.

detroit: -1 degrees (set in 1914)
flint: 0 degrees (set in 1944)
saginaw: -7 degrees (set in 1917)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 7 am sunday to 4 am est monday for lhz442-
443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...tf
marine.......drk
climate......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.