Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
868
fxus61 kcle 091105
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
705 am edt tue jun 9 2026

.what has changed...
decreased qpf through wednesday morning as coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be fairly isolated to
scattered.

&&

.key messages...
1) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into the
weekend. highest chances for precipitation will be this afternoon
and evening and thursday afternoon and evening.

2) summertime heat and humidity enter the region with peak heat
index values approaching 100 degrees by mid-week. slightly cooler
behind a cold front friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a shortwave aloft coupled with a surface warm front will lift
east across the upper ohio valley today. showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move through the region through the day today.
coverage of showers/storms will remain isolated to scattered
with pops generally in the 40-60% range through tonight. near
record high pwat values in a moisture rich airmass will provide
a favorable environment for any shower/storm that develops to be
capable of producing heavy rainfall. given remaining
uncertainty with timing and coverage of showers/storms, any
flooding potential will be very localized or confined to areas
where training showers/storms occur.

any storms that occur this afternoon and evening should remain below
severe limits, but can`t rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm
given moderate instability (800-1200 j/kg sbcape) and deep-layer
shear of 20-25 knots. as for wednesday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening hours
given the moist and unstable airmass. the 00z href shows increased
instability (2000-2500 j/kg sbcape) and deep-layer shear increasing
to 25-30 knots. a few severe storms may be possible with primary
hazards of damaging wind gusts and large hail. spc has highlighted
our cwa in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on
wednesday.

a cold front will push towards the region during the day on thursday
with another period of afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected
to develop ahead of the front. spc has included the entire forecast
in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on thursday.

key message 2...
anticipate a period of above normal temperatures with hot and humid
conditions through the end of the week. summertime temperatures with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be coupled with
dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. heat indices will also be
on the rise through the week with peak heat index values approaching
100f wednesday and thursday. limited overnight relief as overnight
lows will settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s. early season heat is
oftentimes more dangerous and can pose a greater risk for heat-
related illness. stay hydrated and take frequent breaks out of the
sun and in cooled locations! temperatures will fall behind cold
front on friday with cooler highs in the mid 80s expected through
the weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
the message from the previous taf issuance continues to hold
true. isolated to scattered convection possible at any point
during the forecast period, but confidence is low on it
affecting specific terminals with any sort of timing due to its
relative disorganization. utilized prob30 in a few instances as
prevailing and tempo are not advisable in this set up. in the
end, towering cumulus will be in and around the area today.
ceilings will lower to primarily mvfr this morning/afternoon,
and possibly to ifr at a couple terminals tonight. winds to gust
15-25kts out of the southwest during peak heating this
afternoon.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms through friday.

&&

.marine...
offshore winds today increase to 15kts with wave heights increasing
to 1-2ft away from shore in the nearshore zones. beginning tonight,
these winds will become southwesterly 10-15kts through friday. wave
heights in the western and central basins, where southwesterly winds
are more offshore in nature, will be less than a foot adjacent to
the shore and will increase to 1-2ft away from shore in the
nearshore zones. cleveland eastward, wave heights will be 1-2ft for
the entire nearshore zone with winds parallel to the shoreline.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
424
fxus63 kiwx 091158
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
758 am edt tue jun 9 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity on the increase through thursday, with highs
in the mid-upper 80s and low 90s. heat indices on wednesday
and thursday will be around 100 degrees. lows will be in the
60s, low- mid 70s.

- daily chances (generally 40-80 percent) for showers and storms
this week. severe weather potential exists for both wednesday
and thursday during the late afternoon-evening and overnight
hours. there is higher confidence in the threat materializing
thursday evening into the overnight hours, especially west of
i 69. damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. a
tornado or two may be possible, especially thursday
evening/night.

- lower chances (20-30 percent) for showers and storms return
sunday afternoon into monday, with temps cooling into the low
to mid 80s with decreased humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 542 am edt tue jun 9 2026

main change from previous forecast: spc outlooks today-thu have been
upgraded from their previous status.

-today: a marginal risk/general thunder...marginal risk only in
white county, in this afternoon. isolated strong to severe storms
are possible, but confidence is low due to a lack of large scale
support.

-wednesday afternoon-overnight: a slight risk of severe weather for
areas along and north of us 24, mainly west of i 69. there is a
marginal risk elsewhere. damaging winds and large hail are the main
threat. confidence is low to medium in severe weather occurring.

-thursday afternoon-overnight: an enhanced risk of severe
weather for the far western forecast area (especially west of
in 15/us 31) and a slight to marginal risk elsewhere,
decreasing threat with eastward extent. damaging winds and
large hail are the main threat. a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out-especially in the enhanced area. confidence is medium
in severe weather occurring.

details...

today...as of this writing, there are numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with a northward lifting warm front--mainly
west of i 69 but especially west of us 31. expect this activity to
lift north and east through the late morning hours, with southwest
winds shifting west and lightening up behind a weakening trough late
this afternoon and evening. intensity should weaken as the boundary
moves eastward through the morning as we are into the more stable
time of day initially, with redevelopment possible this afternoon
along the incoming boundary during daytime heating. models disagree
on the exact placement of the showers/any storms, though they all
have some sort of activity today. that being said, some locations
may see more prolonged gaps in more scattered-numerous coverage than
others-with partly to mostly cloudy skies. spc clipped our far sw
cwa (white county, in) in a marginal risk today as they are closer
to the best axis of instability. suspect we`ll see potential into
the afternoon for a couple stronger storms further west/south as mid-
level lapse rates steepen to about 7c/km. gusty winds and some large
hail are possible-mainly close to the small marginal risk.
confidence is lower in the exact placement as models are quite
variable with where the focus will become if it doesn`t end up being
more widely scattered/isolated. highs will climb into the mid-upper
80s for most areas today with heat indices entering into the upper
80s, low-mid 90s for area mainly along and south of us 24. of
course, these could end up lower if we have more expansive cloud
cover and shower/storm coverage.

for wednesday...spc outlook is a slight risk for severe weather in
areas along and north of us 24, mainly west of i 69. there is a
marginal risk elsewhere. damaging winds and large hail are the main
threat. confidence is low to medium in severe weather occurring-best
potential in the slight risk area. our area is on the periphery of
the upper level ridge/surface high to the se by wednesday
afternoon/evening. shortwaves ripple through this flow in the
morning/early afternoon so there may be some activity through early
afternoon in portions of the area (per the rap and a few other
models). the hrrr stays mostly dry except a few cells popping with
daytime heating in mid-late afternoon (isolated). it brings in a
line or cluster of storms in the far west/northwest (especially near
lake mi) sometime between 5pm and 11pm edt. given there is abundant
moisture/instability around and if we can break through the initial
ridging aloft (with a shortwave or two to limit capping)...there
could be scattered/isolated strong-severe storms. the shear
increases towards the afternoon, in addition to steeper (7-8c/km)
500-700mb lapse rates building in from the west certainly by late
evening. damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat (15 percent
probs at spc)--larger hail will be more likely further west of our
area. spc does have the area along the lake mi shore and into
northern cass county, mi in the 2 percent tornado
probabilities...with 25-40kt 0-6km bulk shear/and a bit of helicity
along the incoming boundary. per the spc discussion the storms could
initially be more supercellular in il etc and move eastward where
they transition to more of a line segment with our indiana classic
spin ups possible. it`s possible we see little-no activity until
after 8 pm edt, then a drop off in intensity after 11 pm edt as
conditions become less favorable. given uncertainty in the storm
mode at the point of entry into our cwa and the later timing
possibility-confidence is low to medium (greatest in the far west).

high temperatures/heat indices wednesday will depend on the amount
of convection/cloud cover that may limit temperatures...but for now
have mid-upper 80s and a couple spots in the low 90s for highs. this
brings heat indices up to around 100 degrees. an advisory will be
needed if we can materialize these temps. held off for now given
lower confidence in early daytime clouds/weather.

for thursday afternoon/overnight...spc has an enhanced risk of
severe weather for the far western forecast area (especially west of
in 15/us 31) and a slight to marginal risk elsewhere, decreasing
threat with eastward extent. damaging winds and large hail are the
main threat. a tornado or two cannot be ruled out-especially in the
enhanced area. confidence is medium in severe weather occurring. the
majority of the day could end up being dry as we are beneath a bit
of ridging in the mid/upper levels, so beyond some morning activity
lingering or just a few isolated afternoon cells popping in the
blistering heat/humidity during the late afternoon, the main show
will likely be after sunset. highs thursday will be in the upper 80s
and low-mid 90s (hottest just inland from lake mi and in nw oh).
heat indices once again will be around 100 degrees, possibly
prompting the need for a heat advisory (especially given wed may
also be advisory level).

storms take off in mn/wi/il and progress eastward within a strongly
forced and moist, unstable environment with high deep layer
shear/strong low level shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. these
storms (likely supercells and/or bowing segments) will move east-
northeast with a surface low through the overnight. models did slow
the progression of this system/associated storms from previous
runs...which means we are on the border of less favorable timing for
severe threat in terms of maximized instability. outside of maybe a
few isolated storms popping in the afternoon, it`s probably going to
be closer to 8-10 pm edt before the greatest threat arrives in the
west. per the nam and a couple others...it could be as late as 11 pm
to 1 am edt for the enhanced area further west, progressing e-se
into the morning.

additionally, for our area, mid level lapse rates remain around 6.5-
7c/km...but it depends on the model (some have 5.5 to 6.5c/km at
least in our area...not as favorable). storms will diminish in
intensity somewhat as they go eastward into the overnight/early fri
am hours. with any supercells or bowing segments of course comes the
potential for a tornado or two, which is certainly possible given
the abundant low level moisture and strong ll shear. confidence
stays medium due to the aforementioned timing delays.

friday into early next week will be cooler and less humid, with low-
end (20-30 percent) chances for showers and storms mainly fri am and
again sun/mon. highs will be in the upper 70s, low-mid 80s with the
coolest and least humid conditions towards sun/mon.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 746 am edt tue jun 9 2026

predominantly mvfr to ifr conditions to start the period, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms at both terminals. breezy
southwest winds this afternoon shift west-northwest and become
light overnight. rain this morning has come to an end at ksbn,
with upstream ceilings of 400-700 ft (vis 4-5sm) expected to
creep further eastward. this should improve after 15z where we
see a lull in any significant activity and ceilings lift to
high-end mvfr/vfr for the afternoon. have vcts 18-00z as models
generate afternoon convection with the weak wave/surface
boundary moving through at peak heating. mvfr/ifr
ceilings/visibilities are possible with any heavier
showers/storms.

at kfwa, rain is just now impacting the terminal with bkn015
ceilings. upstream an area of convection just near south whitley
and rochester, in is expanding eastward, with lightningcast
probabilities for kfwa in the 10-30 percent range within the
hour. have -shra/vcts and a tempo in through 15z, along with
potential for 700 ft ceilings/2-3sm visibilities. it is possible
lightning trends decrease in the next half

similarly to ksbn, expect a lull in activity after 16z or so
with mvfr ceilings becoming vfr. thunderstorm activity is a
little less certain in terms of timing, but have the prob 30 in
from 19-01z at first with gusty winds possible/ifr vis. have
another prob30 after 01z as many of the models keep rain and/or
convection around the terminal through at least 3z if not
slightly later.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
766
fxus63 kdtx 091348
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
948 am edt tue jun 9 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening will
pose a locally heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gust threat.

- heat and humidity builds in wednesday and thursday. afternoon
temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s with heat indices
potentially climbing into the upper 90s. a heat advisory may
eventually be needed.

- thunderstorms will be possible wednesday and thursday. the greater
severe thunderstorm threat will be late thursday/thursday night with
a slight risk in place for all of southeast michigan.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend.

&&

.update...

the 09.12z kdtx raob sampled a thermodynamic profile that contained
a fair amount of subsaturated air and residual static stability in
the lowest 10.0 kft agl. progs on isentropic surfaces suggests a
high amount of moisture exists immediately upstream tied to a pseudo
moisture transport axis arcing from the midlevel pv
maximum/convectively augmented low pressure circulation now lifting
through east central wisconsin. observationally this tracks with the
line of shower activity immediately at the doorstep aligning to this
moisture axis. precipitation chances will increase through the
midday period as this spoke pushes to the east or northeast through
the area. no severe weather is anticipated in the immediate now term.

later this afternoon, anticipated breaks in the clouds should allow
june insolation to steepen lapse rates considerably in the 1000-
850mb layer. forecast soundings suggest that while cape profiles
will remain skinny, equilibrium heights should have no problem
reaching 35.0 kft agl and sbcapes should reach 1250-1500 j/kg. with
any deep convection and pwats reaching near 2.0 inches the concern
will be water loading/wet microbursts from cell collapses. isolated
strong to possibly severe wind gusts may become possible during the
late afternoon and early evening. something to monitor.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 606 am edt tue jun 9 2026

aviation...

an area of heavy rain continues to fill in over southwest lower
michigan this morning, and will steadily march east toward the
airspace over the next several hours. time of arrival tool has rain
reaching most areas between 13-14z, with the exception of mbs which
may see showers and possibly a thunderstorm as early as 12z.
lightning with this activity is sparse so far, but may develop
before it reaches the airspace. better opportunity for thunderstorms
arrives after 16z, tied to the peak heating cycle, and lingers
through roughly 02z tonight. that said, convection will come in
waves with breaks in between. the latest taf update targets an early
afternoon and evening wave of convection, but should note that
timing still carries low predictability and these windows may shift
with subsequent forecast updates. thunderstorm chances decrease
tonight into wednesday morning as drier air fills into the area and
winds become westerly.

d21/dtw convection...rain reaches dtw between 13-14z, with a low but
chance for thunder. thunderstorm chances then increase through the
afternoon, with convection expected to come in waves with dry periods
in between. the first of these waves is anticipated this afternoon
(roughly 18-21z) with a second, lower confidence window this evening
(23z-02z). drier conditions then expected to develop overnight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight. medium wednesday
morning.

* low in thunderstorms through 16z. moderate between 16z and 02z
this evening.

prev discussion...
issued at 404 am edt tue jun 9 2026

discussion...

mid level low pressure circulation will move across the upper
peninsula today and drag a weak frontal zone across southeast
michigan this afternoon. a few showers/isolated thunderstorms are
preceding this front this morning with the lead vorticity and thetae
advection. the low level jet will help carry and an impressive
moisture rich environment into the area today. pwats from observed
soundings last evening at ilx and dvn came in at 2.01 inches and 1.91
inches respectively. this airmass is arriving locally this morning
along with the low 70s dewpoints being observed lifting into lower
michigan. the moisture and inbound front will support high pops
across the area that increase this morning and carry into early
evening. favorable diurnal timing will yield cape values around 1500-
2000 j/kg helping support stronger updrafts. limiting factors that
will preclude a mention of a greater severe weather threat will be
weak bulk shear at 20-25 knots and weak lapse rates. the warm cloud
depths and moist adiabatic lapse rates point do point towards a
greater heavy rainfall threat, which in turn brings potential for
strong gusty winds from precip loaded downburst. guidance continues
to point towards pockets of 1-2 inches or greater of qpf that will be
possible focused between 16z and 04z today. confidence is low as to
where these localized higher totals will possibly fall. southeast
michigan remains in general thunderstorms for the spc convective
outlook for today.

ridging will translate over the central great lakes wednesday into
thursday. increasing southwest flow will carry an even warmer
airmass into the region with 850mb temperatures climbing to around
20c. this leads to an increase in surface temperatures reaching the
low 90s. add in the persisting humid airmass with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s and heat indices should approach 100 degrees
and bring potential for heat headlines. the other concern for
wednesday will be the severe weather potential, which appears to be
towards the later part of the day as a shortwave arrives on the
heals of the passing ridge. additional forcing from the increasing
low level jet may be enough to trigger convection in the backdrop of
greater subsidence and capping with the upper ridging. tail end of
the href suggests some convection is able to develop which would
pose mainly a wind and hail threat. strong instability (2000-3000
j/kg of mlcape) and steeper mid level lapse rates will be available,
but shear remains lacking wednesday evening. a marginal risk for all
of southeast michigan is in place for wednesday.

a brief lull in precip looks possible thursday afternoon with
afternoon conditions remaining hot and humid with heat indices again
approaching 100 degree. the greater severe weather threat is also
slated for late thursday and thursday night. a strong wave will
cross the western great lakes into ontario and send a cold front
through the region. timing will be less favorable after peak
heating, but models do offer enough instability with strong wind
fields yielding good shear and more favorable lapse rates. this set
up points towards a cold pool driven mcs along the front that would
arrive locally pending the environment remains favorable. a slight
risk for all of southeast michigan is in place for thursday.

the cold front sweeping through will drive the hot and humid airmass
off to the east and bring more seasonable conditions for friday into
the weekend. lower confidence forecast over the weekend as troughing
holds over the midwest brings low end precip chances. afternoon
temperatures by sunday are forecast to be back down into the 70s and
low 80s.

marine...

weak low pressure tracks across lower mi today and reaches lake
huron late this evening. scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the area with wind predominantly
out of the southeast near 10 kt. isolated storms may produce winds
in excess of 34 kt. a warm and unstable air mass will take residence
wednesday and thursday, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. prevailing wind will be out of the west and southwest
with potential for gusts upwards of 20 kt at times, especially over
the shallower, warmer waters of saginaw bay, western lake erie, and
lake st. clair. a cold front passes through the region on friday and
brings a brief period of drier conditions.

hydrology...

a moisture rich environment will pose a locally heavy rainfall
threat today. while most ensemble members put qpf amounts generally
within 0.25" to 0.75", the environment will be supportive of pockets
of 1.00" to 2.00" rainfall amounts or greater. highly variable
amounts can be expected across southeast michigan. convective
rainfall rates will have potential to reach 1.00" or greater at
times, especially during the afternoon and early evening. low
confidence exists as to where these heavier pockets of rainfall
would fall, but the environment will certainly support isolated
flash flooding potential especially if it occurs over any urban
areas or flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......cb
aviation.....mv
discussion...aa
marine.......tf
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.