Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
762
fxus61 kcle 131845
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
145 pm est fri feb 13 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast. a more
prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this
weekend and into next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) a more prolonged period of above average temperatures will
return this weekend and continue into next week.

2) rain is likely on wednesday, and possibly again thursday
night into friday as a pair of systems move through the region.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

above average temperatures are poised to return on saturday as
a large upper-level ridge develops across much of the central
and eastern conus. the latest guidance suggests that this ridge
should persist through at least mid-week as a more dominant
upper- level trough develops across the western conus.

in terms of temperatures, highs in the 40s for the weekend will
increase further into the low to mid-50s by early next week. the
warmest day appears to be on wednesday with temperatures reaching
the upper 50s to lower 60s in some spots behind a warm front.
minimal precipitation is expected through wednesday which does
bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on area rivers and a
melting snowpack.

.key message 2...

a period of widespread rain is likely on wednesday as a low
pressure system lifts a warm front north through the area. rainfall
amounts will generally be a quarter of an inch or less, with
higher amounts closer to a third of an inch found across
northeast ohio into northwest pennsylvania. another system is
expected to take a similar track northeast into the midwest by
thursday night into friday which may bring another round of
widespread rain into the area. once again, rainfall amounts
should be generally light, generally a quarter of an inch or
less.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
clear skies persist through this evening. a weak surface trough
swings through and clips northwest pennsylvania. a brief period
of light snow showers will be possible there with overcast mvfr
ceilings. mid-level clouds could briefly extend westward into
ohio tonight with the trough. mvfr that develop in northwest
pennsylvania late tonight may linger through saturday morning
and even early saturday afternoon. these mvfr clouds could
expand southwest towards kcle/kyng area but there is some
uncertainty with this. patchy fog/mist could develop elsewhere
late tonight into saturday morning, which is most likely in
northwest ohio. light southwest winds less than 10 knots through
tonight become light and variable on saturday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered, though above normal
temperatures will deteriorate lake ice through the end of next
week. winds are relatively quiet through the next several days,
aside from a brief period of ~15 knot southwesterly winds
tonight. stronger winds around 15 to 25 knots are possible
wednesday into thursday as a the region is impacted by a low
pressure system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
950
fxus63 kiwx 131848
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
148 pm est fri feb 13 2026

.key messages...

- patchy fog possible again tonight.

- 20-40% chances for rain saturday night into sunday morning, mainly
along and south of us 30. amounts less than 0.10".

- highs in the 40s this weekend; several days with highs in the 50s
likely next week.

- an active weather pattern returns with additional chances for rain
and gusty winds for the later half of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 147 pm est fri feb 13 2026

high pressure over much of the eastern conus is bringing quiet and
dry conditions across our forecast area today. skies are expected to
remain mostly clear overnight, which sets the stage for another
night with fog potential. much like last night, winds are expected
to diminish after sunset. patchy dense radiation fog will be
possible across the area, much like the past few nights. models
vary widely with visibility on saturday morning. my only
hesitation is that dewpoint depressions may end up being a few
degrees more than what they have been over the past few nights,
which may limit fog development. confidence is low but the best
opportunity for any fog to develop would be between 06-13z
saturday.

over the past few days, have been mentioning the presence of a
strong upper level trough and associated surface low across the
southern us. well now, it appears that this system will be so far
south that it will be unable to provide adequate moisture to support
anything more than very light rain. in fact, high-res model guidance
continues to trend downwards on both precip chances and qpf. south
of us 30 will be on the far northern periphery of the system, with
light rain possible late saturday into early sunday. amounts will be
vry light, only a few hundredths in most places, if any rain is
observed at all. with mid level dry air to overcome, it may
just end up as virga. low chances for rain (15-25%) still exist
for late saturday into sunday morning, although best chances now
will be south of us 24. areas along and north of us 30 will
stay dry.

a strong upper level ridge is then expected to build across the
central and eastern conus into early next week. confidence continues
to increase for well above normal temperatures for the early and
middle parts of next week. the latest cpc 6-10 day temperature
outlook continues to highlight high probabilities (70-90% chances)
for above normal temperatures. ensemble models highs climb into the
40s over the weekend and then into the 50s by early next week. the
warmest day will likely be wednesday before the ridge flattens out;
widespread highs in the low 50s are possible along and south of us
30 as a warm front lifts north. highs in the 50s are likely; some
locations south of us 24 may even make a run at 60 degrees! a more
active pattern looks to resume with gusty winds, rain, and maybe
even some embedded thunder developing along and north of the
aforementioned warm front. above normal temperatures continue
through at least late next week with perhaps additional chances for
rain with a system on thursday/friday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1224 pm est fri feb 13 2026

few to potentially scattered mid level clouds move through in the
wnw mid-upper flow and with the developing inversion potentially
trapping any meltwater from snow, this would make stratus or fog
possible tonight. lav guidance seems to indicate that fwa has
favorable cross-over temps and while sbn doesn`t quite hit the
threshold, it still could if it radiates cooler with the few clouds
around. bufkit also shows shallow moisture at both sbn and fwa
indicative of fog, but one or both of those sites could just have
shallow fog given the depth of the moisture profile. aviation
guidance indicates some fog would be possible, mainly at sbn, to the
tune of mvfr magnitude. will put a tempo group in for sbn with mvfr
visby in line with aviation guidance. as happened yesterday, this
fog could end up at fwa instead though, and that`s what the namnest
shows.

winds will continue to remain out of the southwest for the taf
period with winds staying at or below 10 kts, strongest this
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
250
fxus63 kdtx 132035
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
335 pm est fri feb 13 2026

.key messages...

- no precipitation expected through the weekend.

- above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

&&

.discussion...

dry and warm weather will carry us through the weekend as wave after
wave within the southern stream of the jet continues to build
stronger ridging through the central plains gaining more of a
stronghold over the great lakes. this shift in the southern stream
is forcing the colder air back up into canada while also pushing the
northern stream wave train north of the region. this combined with a
southern stream cutoff low drifting east across texas holding
associated active weather to our south, will leave se mi in a void
between the two more active weather regions.

for this evening into tonight there is a trough draped across
northern lake huron that will continue weakening while the mid level
shortwave dives to the southeast away from the region. while there
is a chance of seeing a few snowflakes or rain/snow mix this evening
over the northern thumb, but the dry resident airmass will make it
tough for much other than clouds from occuring. temps have risen
into the upper 30s to 40f this afternoon across much of the area but
the northern thumb is holding around freezing. dewpoints down in the
teens and low 20s will set the bar for low temps potential tonight.
continued warm air advection will likely add a degree or two to
these values though.

northern and southern streams continue to jockey for control over
the region through the rest of the weekend leading to a slowly
moderating airmass with low 40s saturday and low-mid 40s sunday.
early week northward surge with the jet will bring a little warmer
air for monday with max temps of 50 possible. some fluctuation
through mid week but temps should remain above 40 through thursday.

next chance of precipitation look arrive tuesday night and wednesday
as isentropic ascent above a baroclinic zone that should hold just
to our south. this leads to a long duration precip event where a
mixed precip scenario may setup over lower mi. early on the
deterministic gfs and ecmwf are far apart in outcomes with gfs
setting up mixed precip over northern lower and up whereas the ecmwf
is across southern mi. gfs would lead to warmer rain setup for se mi
whereas the ecmwf would keep us cooler with mixed precip possible.
we`ll advertise high pops at this point with models agreeing on the
general setup, and monitor trends for ptype through the next few
days.

&&

.marine...

a clipper system over lake huron will exit to the east later this
evening with snow coming to an end and wind shifting to nw at around
10 to 15 kt. high pressure becomes dominant on saturday with light
and variable winds. relatively benign marine weather persists into
early next week with the prevailing storm track situated south of
the great lakes. the next weak clipper/trough moves through the
northern great lakes on sunday with just a slight uptick in s to ssw
wind to around 10 to 15 kt expected. a period of more active weather
is possible by the middle of next week with multiple low pressure
systems tracking through the region.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1238 pm est fri feb 13 2026

aviation...

high pressure centered over the ohio valley will maintain favorable
aviation conditions across the terminals today and most of tonight.
a low pressure system crossing the northern great lakes offers a
slightly higher cloud fraction for mbs, and possibly fnt, but vfr
conditions are still expected to persist. winds (generally) aob 10
knots veer from sw to w this evening, before trending toward calm by
saturday morning. some evidence of weak low-level moisture advection
could increase low clouds based from 3-4 kft agl, but still expect
more sct than bkn conditions overnight. should low clouds
underachieve, morning mvfr fog would be possible given dew points
and nocturnal cooling potential. opted to introduce a 6sm vfr
visibility reduction for saturday morning. high clouds fill in later
in the day as a low pressure system moves across the mid-mississippi
valley. winds remain light and variable on saturday with diffuse
surface high pressure over lower michigan. light flow organizes
southeasterly.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into saturday
morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......tf
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.