Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 032329
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast has changed little. confidence continues to
increase that periods of showers and thunderstorms will impact
our region friday night through saturday night. some of the
storms may be severe saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.key messages...
1.) dry conditions and a warming trend persist through this
friday.

2.) periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected this friday
night through saturday night, along and ahead of a cold front.

3.) current odds favor dry weather and another gradual warming
trend during sunday through wednesday of the upcoming week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a ridge at the surface and aloft continues to affect our region
through friday. aloft, the ridge axis should move from the
western great lakes and north-central gulf coast toward the
eastern seaboard. simultaneously, the attendant surface high
pressure center should wobble sse`ward from the south-central
great lakes to atlantic waters near the carolinas. dry weather
persists as stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge
continues to affect our cwa. on the synoptic-scale, net low-level
warm/moist air advection from the gulf and a warming trend will
impact northern oh and nw pa as we become located along the
western flank of the low-level portion of the ridge. late
afternoon highs are expected to reach mainly the mid 70`s to mid
80`s on thursday and mainly the upper 70`s to mid 80`s on
friday. the coolest highs are expected along and within several
miles of the lake erie shore from lorain county, oh through erie
county, pa on thursday and from northeastern cuyahoga county,
oh through erie county, pa on friday due to lake breeze
development each late morning through early evening. overnight
lows should reach mainly the 50`s around daybreak thursday and
mainly the 60`s around daybreak friday.

key message 2...
aloft, the aforementioned ridge exits e`ward friday night
through saturday night and gives way to cyclonic w`erly to
nw`erly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances over our
region as a primary trough axis moves from near western on and
the upper midwest to near new england and the delmarva
peninsula. at the surface, ridging exits generally se`ward
before a cold front sweeps se`ward through our region during
saturday evening through the predawn hours of sunday morning.
the front will be preceded by a low-level return flow of warm,
humid, and unstable air originating over the gulf. behind the
front, a surface ridge begins to build from the upper great
lakes. periodic and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected as weak to moderate instability, including elevated
cape, is released by the following: low-level convergence/moist
ascent along surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave
disturbances and along the surface cold front; moist isentropic
ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and along the
upper-reaches of the cold front. some thunderstorms may become
severe this saturday afternoon into the evening as the
warm/moist sector boundary layer destabilizes via peeks of
sunshine and daytime heating, and moderate to strong deep-layer
bulk shear resides in our region. periods of torrential
rainfall amidst unusually-high pwat`s in the warm/moist sector
are expected. however, the flash flood threat still appears to
be minimal since w`erly mean mid-level flow should be fairly-
strong and not largely-parallel to the front.

overnight lows should reach the 60`s around daybreak saturday
and be followed by late afternoon highs in the upper 70`s to mid
80`s as abundant cloud cover ahead of the primary trough axis
aloft should limit daytime heating. weak and net low-level caa
behind the cold front should contribute to lows reaching the
upper 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak sunday.

key message 3...
current odds favor dry weather for sunday through wednesday of
the upcoming week as ridging at the surface and aloft affects
our cwa and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. at the
surface, the high pressure center should wobble generally
se`ward from the northern great lakes to near the delmarva
peninsula, while the ridge axis aloft should move from the upper
midwest and north-central gulf coast toward the eastern
seaboard. accordingly, net low-level caa on sunday should give
way to net low-level waa by monday through wednesday. late
afternoon highs in mainly the mid 70`s to lower 80`s on sunday
should moderate to mainly the 80`s on wednesday. overnight lows
should moderate from mainly the 50`s to lower 60`s around
daybreak monday to mainly the lower to mid 60`s around daybreak
wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
high pressure remains in control, allowing for vfr and mainly
clear conditions to continue through the taf period. light and
variable winds tonight shift southwest and increase to 6-12kt
thursday afternoon. winds will be a bit more westerly at eri due
to a lake breeze. there is uncertainty regarding if the lake
breeze will get to cle in the afternoon, which would lead to a
temporary flip to n-nw winds. the taf currently maintains the sw
winds, but will continue to evaluate in future updates.

outlook...scattered thunderstorms with non-vfr likely at times
on saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the region through friday will allow for
fairly benign marine conditions. light and variable winds will
continue on the lake today and tonight with dry and clear
weather. while dry weather will continue through friday, winds
will shift around to the southwest for thursday and then increase
slightly with good afternoon mixing on friday up to the 10 to
15 kt range. a low pressure system will enter the region for the
weekend, bringing some storm chances. southwest winds will
continue on saturday before a cold front sweeps through on
saturday night, bringing northerly flow to the region for
sunday. no marine headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sullivan
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 032327
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
727 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

.key messages...

- trending warmer into thursday and friday with highs into the 80s.

- chances (20-50%) for showers and storms enter the forecast north
of the us 24 corridor friday afternoon into friday evening.

- better rain and storm chances (50-80%) area-wide on saturday with
heavy downpours and lightning the primary threats.

- mainly dry sunday into monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 133 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

an expansive low level anticyclone overhead will sink off to the
southeast by thursday and friday. this will allow our stretch of
pleasant weather to end the week with warmer highs into the low
to mid 80s as southwesterly flow ramps up on the backside of
the aforementioned surface high. a more dramatic increase in
column moisture remains delayed until later friday and saturday.
this incoming high theta-e air in conjunction with several mid
level disturbances traversing the area in flattened quasi-zonal
flow aloft could yield periodic scattered showers and storms,
particularly on saturday with heavier downpours possible. the
bulk of available model guidance suggests a return to drier wx
sunday into early next week as the frontal boundary and
associated moisture axis likely gets shunted just to the south
and west of the iwx cwa.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 727 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

surface high pressure continues sinking southeastward toward the
southeast conus through this taf period. as the mid level ridge
overhead breaks down, warm advection moves in from the west
increasing surface dew points. even with all of this, by the time we
get to thursday evening, the nearest more vigorous shortwave is more
towards the mid to upper mississippi valley yet. as such, will
continue with vfr conditions through the taf period.

given the evolution of the surface high pressure system, southeast
winds veer southwesterly later tonight and into thursday. strong
lapse rates and good surface heating allows for the possibility of
wind gusts reaching 20 kts at sbn by day`s end.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 032310
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
710 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warm through tomorrow.

- periods of scattered to numerous rain showers with some embedded
thunderstorms likely friday into saturday.

&&

.aviation...

vfr under bands of cirrus this evening is accompanied by weak lake
breeze modification of light wind tied to the center of surface high
pressure overhead. the wind gradually transitions to light southerly
tonight as high pressure begins a shift toward the atlantic coast.
high pressure departure is tied to mid-upper level ridge progression
as decay of the recent blocking pattern accelerates tonight and
thursday. increasing sw wind is the weather highlight for se mi
during this time as it initiates the first stage of boundary layer
moisture increase that lifts surface td into the 50s thursday
afternoon, compared to readings mostly around 40 today. this adds
scattered high-based cumulus to go along with cirrus streamers in
the cloud profile during the afternoon into thursday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms tonight through thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 343 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

discussion...

a seasonably strong 1027mb high pressure system now over the
southern great lakes and ohio river valley will expand into the
appalachia region tonight into tomorrow in response to the breakdown
of the longwave ridge across the central conus. the closed low
across the northern rockies has started to carve into the ridge as
it travels eastward, ahead of the arrival of a pacific nw trough.
this brings continued stability across se mi which will sustain dry
weather tonight and tomorrow. temperatures now in the low 80s cool
into the mid 50s overnight under mostly clear skies. the slight
increase in magnitude of southwest flow will stream the warmer
temperatures across the plains into michigan, pushing highs into the
mid to upper 80s tomorrow. outside of periodic translucent cirrus
through the day and what will likely be a meager attempt at few-sct
cu development given limited moisture in the column.

the streak of dry weather will end friday into saturday as a series
of shortwave troughs move across the state bringing high-end chances
for multiple rounds of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
weak upper-jet structure along with poor amplitude of the trough and
moderated baroclinicity precludes any strong mention of severe
thunderstorm potential. global models do highlight 0-6km shear
values around 30 knots aligned with 500-1000 j/kg cape during the
afternoon hours, so cannot totally rule out some stronger storm
potential. this will be highly dictated on prior day/morning
activity rain and cloud cover, but bears watching once within the hi-
res output window.

the last of the upper-level waves will depart on sunday bringing
mostly dry conditions to start the week, outside of some very low
chances for a pop-up afternoon shower under a weakly capped
environment for sunday. an upper low across texas will open and
travel north into the midwest early next week which will aid in the
development of a strong ridge across michigan on monday, bringing
dry conditions. confidence then turns much lower regarding potential
duration of dry weather along with above normal temperatures and
will be pending the speed of the upper-level ridge along with the
associated high pressure system just east of the ridge axis. the
latest pop values hold aob 20% tue-wed which would allow highs to
push into the upper 80s assuming the dry forecast. latest 12z ecmwf
and aifs (including time lagged 24 hr aifs) highlight the potential
for early breakdown of the ridge, bringing shower and thunderstorm
chances tue-wed. this scenario would cap highs in the low to mid
80s.

marine...

a high pressure system continues to sit atop the great lakes region
today into tomorrow morning. this high pressure system is then
expected to deteriorate during the early afternoon hours as a low
pressure system approaches the area. light wind flow is expected to
shift overnight from southernly to southeasterly in all regions.
thursday evening the coast of lake erie will have light winds
varying from the southeast to southwest. southern lake huron and
lake st. clair will experience relatively light winds out of the
south thursday evening into the morning hours. saginaw bay will
experience more moderate southwesterly winds thursday afternoon into
the overnight hours, with wind gusts up to 20 knots possible. north
lake huron is expected to have moderate winds as well from the
south, with gusts upwards of 25 knots possible, in the afternoon
hours, with a gradual shift to lighter winds and more southwesterly
flow expected overnight thursday into friday morning.

winds are expected to be modest out of the southwest friday for the
shore of lake erie, lake st. clair, and southern lake huron, with
gusts up to 20 knots possible. saginaw bay is also expected to have
modest flow out of the southwest, with persistent winds of up to 20
knots possible, along with gusts of up to 25 knots possible as well.
north lake huron is expected to have relatively calmer winds out of
the south friday, with gusts of 20 knots possible closer to the
shore.

light winds are expected to shift from southwesterly to northernly
saturday in the lake huron area, with gusts of up to 20 knots
possible in the bay area. lake st. claire and the coast of lake erie
are expected to gradually shift from southwesterly to westerly flow
saturday, with gusts of 20 knots possible in the morning hours.

rain showers are expected for all regions friday evening as a cold
front associated with this low pressure system treks across the
great lakes region. scattered showers are possible throughout the
day saturday as this low pressure system departs our area.
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...am
marine.......zo/kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.