Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 080656
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
256 am edt sat aug 8 2026

.what has changed...
showers and thunderstorms have trended a little more widespread
early this morning. a slight risk for excessive rainfall (level
2 of 4) has been added for monday and monday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours early
this morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front late this afternoon and evening.

2) strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible
monday and monday night, with periods of heavy rain possibly
lingering tuesday.

3) turning gradually drier, cooler, and less humid wednesday into
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the familiar pattern remains this morning
characterized by a broad mid/upper trough over south central canada
and the northern plains into the great lakes and a broad mid/upper
ridge over the desert southwest and southern plains. this is keeping
active wnw mid/upper flow in place across the southern great lakes
and ohio valley overtop a quasi-stationary east-west front.

the next in the train of reinforcing shortwaves is moving into
western ohio early this morning. rap analysis hints at a weak
surface wave tied to this mid/upper shortwave that is traversing the
frontal boundary, and the boundary is retreating northward this
morning in response. weak warm air/theta e advection and 500-1000
joules of mlcape in the presence of a very moist environment is
triggering a large area of convection along the slowly retreating
front this morning. this is being aided by upper diffluence and mid-
level pva, so expect showers and thunderstorms to be widespread
again this morning as they slowly lift east and northeast. given
pwats near 2 inches, skinny cape, and high freezing levels with deep
warm cloud layers, torrential rainfall will accompany the
convection, so will need to monitor for localized flooding this
morning, particularly if heavy rain occurs in spots that saw it
yesterday. much of the lakeshore from erie and lorain counties
through central and southern cuyahoga county measured 1 to 3 inches
of rain since thursday night, so these areas will be vulnerable if
the convection can build farther north this morning.

this morning activity will exit nw pa by about 14z, and expect a
lull with quite a bit of sunshine into this afternoon allowing
temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s ahead of the trailing
cold front. this front is trending a few hours slower since it
parallels the mid/upper flow but should sink across the region this
evening. pooling low-level moisture along the boundary (dew points
70-75 f) beneath a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates around 7
c/km will combine with the surface heating to yield strong
instability this afternoon and evening. rap and nam forecast
soundings suggest near 3000 joules of mlcape will be possible by mid
to late afternoon, and with just enough deep layer effective shear
for loose convective organization (0-6 km shear around 25 knots),
could see a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds late
this afternoon and evening. the main question is convective
coverage. forecast soundings show quite a bit of dry air, and while
this could aid downburst potential (dcape near 1000 joules), it may
be too dry to get a lot of storm coverage. the thinking is that
there will be a broken line of convection that will move ese across
the area in the 21-03z timeframe, with a few widely scattered cells
possible ahead of the line.

key message 2...
weak surface high pressure will briefly build in
tonight and sunday, pushing the front to near the ohio river and
allowing somewhat less humid air to filter in (dew points in the
low/mid 60s), however, the front will retreat back north as a warm
front sunday night in response to a much more potent mid/upper
shortwave dropping into the upper midwest. this will bring the rich
low-level moisture back into the region for sunday night and monday
and possibly fuel an organized severe weather and heavy rainfall
event.

confidence continues to be low in terms of how convection will play
out sunday night through monday night, so this set up has a
high ceiling but also high bust potential. as the potent
shortwave drops into the upper midwest sunday evening, a 30-40
knot low-level jet and northeast periphery of a stout eml
should trigger a severe mcs that will propagate ese into
northern illinois, northern indiana, and lower michigan along
the strong instability gradient. this mcs will be outrunning the
best instability and upper support by the time it reaches
northern ohio overnight sunday night, but instability will be
slowly increasing as the frontal boundary retreats north, so
expect it to affect northern ohio in some fashion sunday night,
with potential for gusty winds and heavy downpours. best chance
for this will be in nw ohio. the bigger impact from this mcs
will be how it affects convective redevelopment monday. the
shortwave is expected to continue east across the central and
southern great lakes monday with a resultant increase in mid-
level flow yielding 40-50 knots of deep layer effective shear.
this mid-level jet will encourage a low-level jet response by
monday evening to possibly ignite a new mcs over southern lower
michigan, lake erie, and northern ohio ahead of a cold front,
but the location and strength of this development depends on how
much cloud debris and showers from sunday night linger into
monday. if clouds and leftover showers are widespread into
monday afternoon, instability will be reduced, and the new
convection may be less organized or develop outside of our area.
however, if the sunday night activity clears out quickly monday
morning allowing for strong destabilization, then a potent
severe weather and heavy rainfall set up could materialize
monday evening into monday night. the strong shear and
potentially strong instability could support widespread and
significant wind damage, as well as embedded tornadoes if the
higher ceiling can be reached, and a persistent westerly
nocturnal low-level jet oriented increasingly parallel to the
sagging cold front by monday night also supports backbuilding
and training convection with an associated flash flood risk. a
wpc slight risk for excessive rainfall has been introduced for
most of the area monday and monday night, and the area also
remains in an spc severe weather outlook.

the front looks to be slow to sink south tuesday as it remains
aligned parallel to the wnw mid/upper flow, and additional shortwave
energy and remnant outflow boundaries interacting with it in the
continued moist environment could support additional thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall, so maintained high pops through tuesday.

key message 3...
the broad mid/upper trough will continue to slowly
deepen across the great lakes and northeast conus wednesday into
next weekend as a series of shortwaves gradually force the southern
conus ridge into the 4 corners region and help the longwave trough
to carve out as a closed low becomes established near hudson bay.
this will continue to push the active frontal boundary slowly
southward, so have gradually decreasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms mid to late week. this will also allow progressively
cooler and less humid conditions to filter in, with highs in the 70s
by thursday and friday and lows dipping into the 50s in some areas.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the airspace from
southwest to northeast. storms have already largely cleared kfdy
and will miss ktol to the southeast. otherwise, some mix of ts
and heavier rain should reach the remaining terminals this
morning and have timed it across the area. there should be a
break in convective activity later this morning, which will have
a mix of low vfr and mvfr ceilings across the region. a sluggish
cold front will enter from the northwest later today and
generate some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.
coverage will be problematic to have high confidence in placing
at a terminal and have timed some prob30s across the area when
there could be the best timing. this timing could slow as the
front is slowing down across the region. behind the storms and
cold front, ceilings will clear and winds will shift to the
west. there may be some mvfr fog/mist considerations toward the
end of the taf period but will consider for future taf
issuances.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms sunday night through tuesday. some storms could be
strong to severe during this timeframe, especially on monday.

&&

.marine...
southwest flow will maintain across the lake today ahead of a
cold front. the cold front will cross the lake tonight bringing
some scattered shower and storm activity to the region, followed
by northwest flow on the lake tonight. a brief ridge will build
into the region and return southwest flow to the lake on sunday.
a series of low pressure systems with shower and thunderstorm
chances will move through the region on sunday night through
tuesday. winds on the lake will start southwest and become
westerly on tuesday. a weak ridge will reenter the region on
wednesday and bring light but variable flow over the lake.
overall, any marine headlines through the period will be tied to
shower and thunderstorm activity and probably not winds/waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 081020
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 am edt sat aug 8 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight chance (20%) for a brief shower or storm
today.

- an active pattern brings periodic chances (50-70%) for
thunderstorms later sunday into early next week. heavy rain
and chances for strong to severe storms possible with this
activity, best chances during the afternoon and evening hours
of sunday and monday.


- seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 338 am edt sat aug 8 2026

last of the showers/storms in far se areas have finally moved
away. focus shifts to a cool front located from ne wisconsin to
eastern ia. a few showers and storms have been observed in
eastern ia as well as over lk mi, but are struggling at this
point. for the most part, the front should pass through with
little overall fanfare, but a few showers/storms could pop up
along the front as it drops se with the best chances closer to
i-69 and points east. have kept pops confined to slgt chc to
chc. behind the front, slightly cooler and less humid air will
arrive for sat night into early sunday.

signs continue to point towards a potentially active pattern
starting as early as sunday afternoon and persisting into
tuesday with both heavy rain and severe weather in play as the
cool front stalls and then pushes back north as a warm front in
response to low pressure moving into wi by 00z mon. an unstable
environment will be in place sunday afternoon and evening,
although models differ on the degree of instability and shear.
in addition, evolution of convective development varies with
some developing in the afternoon or evening and others develop
upstream across wi and move in during the evening or overnight
hours. dcape should be in the 1000 to 1200 j/kg with at least 25
to 30 kts of shear. spc has upgraded to a slight risk (2 out of
5) from eastern ia into the western half of the forecast area,
mainly for a wind threat and non zero chance for an isolated
tornado. given the concerns for the exact evolution of
convection, have not made many changes with focus on late
afternoon into evening period. potential for training of
convection in a high pwat environment could lead to some
flooding concerns with wpc maintaining the slight risk of
excessive rain across the area.

the frontal boundary lingers across the same general area into
tuesday and possibly wednesday, with its position each day
likely influenced by impacts of subtle waves, mcvs and outflow
boundaries making for a challenging forecast. slight risk of
severe (focus on damaging winds) and excessive rainfall
continues across the forecast area. way too many variables that
far out to mess with anything in the forecast.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 612 am edt sat aug 8 2026

while widely scattered showers and storms remain possible with a
cold front (as well as a brief period of mvfr conditions) have
continued with dry tafs and at most a brief tempo at ksbn for
some lower clouds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 081036 cca
afddtx

area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 am edt sat aug 8 2026

.key messages...

- isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue this morning and afternoon. better coverage of showers and
storms possible late tomorrow into monday.

- temperatures remain seasonable through this weekend, with highs
mainly in the 80s.

&&

.aviation...

inbound frontal boundary on pace to move across southeast michigan
during the late morning and early afternoon hours. narrow plume of
low level moisture resulting in some areas of ifr across the detroit
airspace. this exists as a narrow axis of elevated convection
advances eastward out ahead of the front. enough evidence per latest
radar and satellite trends to highlight a brief window for possible
thunderstorms across all locations except mbs mainly between 12z and
13z this morning. this moisture combined with daytime heating will
work to lift any lingering lower stratus into a broader diurnal cu
field through the midday period. the timing of the front suggests
limited additional potential for convective development today and
will refrain from any additional mention unless further evidence
offers a more clear signal for the afternoon. the immediate post-
frontal environment will offer some gustiness to prevailing west-
northwest winds. drier and more stable conditions arrive tonight as
high pressure builds into the region. this will bring clear skies
with winds veering to northwest.

d21/dtw convection... low potential for a thunderstorm this morning
between 12z and 13z. very low potential this afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 ft this morning. low this afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 327 am edt sat aug 8 2026

discussion...

a weak cold front will progress across se mi this afternoon and
provide the primary focus for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorm development. around 1500 j/kg of sbcape will be
available ahead and along of the boundary although deep-layer shear
remains on the weaker side at 20 knots or less. this will favor
pulse-type convection with limited organization. some better
coverage will be possible within the thumb, aided by localized
convergence near the land/lake interface. the severe weather threat
remains very low, but steep-low level lapse rates and elevated dcape
values will support the low-end risk for a localized strong wet
microburst with any robust development. shower and thunderstorm
chances end after the passage of the front this evening.

forecast confidence decreases considerably tomorrow into monday as
attention turns to convective development upstream across the upper
midwest. strengthening low-level south flow will bring enhanced
moisture transport across iowa and minnesota, supporting
thunderstorms along the nose of the llj. propagation of the
forecasted mcs east or southeast will place the great lakes region
at risk for shower and thunderstorm potential by later in the day on
sunday. surface-based instability in this setup looks limited
locally, especially by the later evening hours, although building
elevated instability will be capable of sustaining thunderstorm
potential. elevated activity would also bring potential for locally
heavy rainfall and hail.

evolution of storms leading into monday will then be highly
dependent on sunday activity as outflow boundaries will have
substantial influence on monday instability and subsequent storm
development. should any outflow settle south of the state line,
higher stability over michigan affords much higher probabilities for
more limited storm development. where conversely a lingering
boundary across the cwa could be a focal point for multiple rounds of
renewed thunderstorm development, potentially strong given the better
shear, along with localized heavy rainfall with any thunderstorm
training.

marine...

most marine areas will remain dry with only a slight chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm going through the day as a cold
front pushes across the region. winds will generally remain on the
lighter side outside of any thunderstorm activity that does occur.
southerly flow will turn northwest going through the day on saturday
behind the departing cold front and may briefly top at or above 20
knots over northern lake huron. high pressure then builds back in
late saturday into sunday before switching back to the south ahead
of another system set to impact the region monday. rain and
thunderstorm activity will remain low through the weekend, with
better chances for unsettled weather coming in at the start of next
week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...am
marine.......ss

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.