Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
791
fxus61 kcle 011902
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
302 pm edt tue sep 1 2026

.what has changed...
main change to the forecast was to expand the heat advisory for
wednesday to include all of northern ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) hot and humid conditions are expected over the next few days with
heat indices approaching the low 100s. little relief is expected
overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

2) there is potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms tonight
through friday with daily chances for severe weather and heavy
rain.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level ridge persists across the eastern conus allowing for
continued heat and humidity to impact the region through thursday.
temperatures at 850mb remain warm in the 20-22c range wednesday
before lowering slightly into the 18-20c range by thursday. daily
afternoon highs warm into the low 90s on wednesday and upper
80s on thursday. there will be little overnight relief as lows
settle in the low 70s each night. despite the potential for
early morning convection, have expanded the heat advisory to
include the remaining counties in northern ohio for wednesday.
confidence in morning showers and storms remains high, however
guidance continues to show rapid clearing of lingering cloud
cover by late wednesday morning. there should be enough clearing
to allow for temperatures to warm and heat index values to rise
into the upper 90s to lower 100s. additionally the entire
forecast area remains under major heatrisk (level 3 of 4) on
wednesday. heat lingers into thursday but confidence is
currently too low to extend the heat advisory beyond wednesday
night.

key message 2...
a series of ridge riders will continue to crest atop the upper ridge
axis through thursday. these shortwaves will provide numerous
chances for showers and thunderstorms into the end of the week.
daily chances for strong to severe storms exist given amble
instability (2000 j/kg mlcape) and favorable bulk shear (30-35
knots) in the warm and moist environment. some of the latest
cams have hinted at isolated showers and storms entering
northwest ohio tonight though there is low confidence in any
strong to severe storms this evening. hi-res guidance continues
to show storms pushing into northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania before daybreak on wednesday. strong to severe
storms are likely with the early morning round, particularly
where the swody1 slight risk (level 2 of 5) exists. primary
hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. some
additional isolated showers and storms will remain possible in
the wake of the morning convection, mainly across eastern zones,
given the continued unstable and moist environment.

by wednesday night, a cold front will begin to push southward across
lake erie providing another window for strong to severe storms to
impact the region. there remains a swody2 slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe thunderstorms on wednesday. primary hazards in
thunderstorms associated with the cold front wednesday night will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail. there is a lower chance for
tornadoes. fairly widespread showers and storms will be ongoing
thursday into friday. the severe weather threat area shifts further
south to central ohio by thursday as the cold front sinks southward.
trending drier by the weekend as canadian high pressure builds over
the region.

with the warm and moist environment, pwats will range between
1.5-2 inches. any thunderstorms that move across the region
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. localized flooding
is possible where repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
regional radars depict scattered showers extending from lake
michigan towards nw ohio. these showers may impact tol at times
through 20z with a low probability of a thunderstorm. otherwise,
can not rule out an isolated shower elsewhere but the trend
will be towards mainly scattered mid-level clouds until late
tonight. southwest winds may gust to 20 knots at times through
22z.

the next window of concern will be generally after 09z
when showers and thunderstorms move northwest to southeast
across lake erie towards northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. confidence is highest at eri but showers or
thunderstorms could also reach cle and yng. thunderstorms in
this time frame do have the potential to be strong to severe
with brief ifr conditions and a wind shift to the northwest.
by mid-morning, skies are expected to scatter out with generally
vfr conditions. isolated showers/thunderstorms may be possible
later on wednesday but confidence is low at this time. winds
will tend to be 10 knots or less out of the southwest except in
the vicinity of thunderstorms.

outlook...a cold front will settle south into area wednesday
night with thunderstorms possible, especially across ne ohio and
nw pennsylvania. the chance for thunderstorms will continue
thursday into friday with very low probabilities lingering into
the weekend.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds with good marine conditions are expected on
lake erie through midnight. there is some potential for stronger
thunderstorms to cross mainly the central and east half of lake
erie in the pre-dawn hours of wednesday which could lead to
erratic wind and wave conditions. another round of stronger
thunderstorms are also possible wednesday night as a cold front
settles south.

a gradual wind shift to the north will occur by thursday night
with winds decreasing into friday. northeast flow over the
weekend could result in some choppy conditions with waves of 3
feet or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz003-006>011-
017>021-027>031-036-037-047.
heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz012>014-
022-023-032-033-038-089.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
127 pm edt tue sep 1 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity continue through at least midweek with peak heat
indices around 100 degrees.

- low chances for showers and storms (15-20%) north of i-80/i-90 tonight
and wednesday. if an isolated storm or two develops, it could
produce gusty to damaging winds. low confidence at this time.

- 30-50% chances for showers and storms area-wide later in the
week on thursday and friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1250 pm edt tue sep 1 2026

happy september 1st and start to meteorological fall! summer shows
no signs of slowing down as we start september, with an expansive
upper level ridge overhead expected to bring hot and humid
conditions through much of this week. a heat advisory remains in
effect for the entire forecast area through 8 pm edt wednesday. our
late summer/early fall heatwave brings high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s through at least midweek. with return flow off
of the gulf due to surface high pressure centered over the southeast
conus, high humidity is expected to persist through at least
midweek. despite the unexpected showers and storms this morning,
clearing is already ongoing this afternoon per visible
satellite imagery, which will allow for temperatures to climb
into at least the mid to upper 80s for highs today slightly
warmer wednesday with highs in the low 90s with the peak of the
ridge overhead. heat indices are expected to be at or slightly
above 100 degrees, especially this afternoon and again wednesday
afternoon. there will be minimal relief overnight with near
record lows in the mid 70s. heat indices around 100 degrees may
persist along and south of us 30 into thursday, so the heat
advisory may need extended in a future forecast update.

considerable uncertainty remains in regards to rain and storms
chances this week. all models have struggled with this pattern
over the past few days; a majority of recent runs of hi-res
guidance have been misleading, keeping the upper level ridge
well to our north whereas in reality, our area (especially the
northern half) has been on that periphery as well. we had
scattered showers and storms in the vicinity of the us 30
corridor this morning and none of the models showed anything
occuring. models have been taking the rain/storm chances north
out of our area, which has created challenges and considerable
uncertainty in regards to what to do with pops over the next few
days. the nbm wants to hold off on any rain for our lower
michigan counties until early thursday at the earliest. however,
i cannot rule out at least isolated shower/storm development in
our forecast area (especially north of i-80/i-90) tonight and
wednesday, where i have added broad 15-20% pops. should any
storms develop, heat and humidity should fuel mlcape values of
up to 3000-4000 j/kg and steeping low level lapse rates. spc
does have at least the northern/northeast half of our area in a
marginal risk each day through thursday with the main risk being
gusty to damaging winds. confidence is low given the
aforementioned uncertainty with models. better chances (30-50%)
for rain/storms area- wide are in the forecast for later
thursday into friday as the upper level ridge gradually
flattens, although uncertainty still remains in the forecast
several days out given the recent unreliable model guidance. our
far southwest counties have the best chances for remaining
completely dry this week with heat and humidity continuing
through late in the week. by the weekend, temperatures trend
closer towards normal with highs in the low 80s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 112 pm edt tue sep 1 2026

northern indiana is caught between strong high pressure to the
south and a deep low over central canada. so with moist zonal
flow across the region, transient weak shortwaves will continue
to bring showers and thunderstorms that are not being depicted
well by the models. currently, convection is mainly over southwest
lower michigan and is expected to remain north of sbn. that
said, both terminals are forecast to remain dry and vfr through
the next 24 hours with mainly sct-bkn high clouds and southwest
winds 5-10 kts. sbn could still see some more activity this
evening, but confidence is low. have better confidence that fwa
will stay dry, although there is a chance for some morning haze
on wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ wednesday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt wednesday for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
303 pm edt tue sep 1 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid conditions through tomorrow.

- a marginal risk for severe weather is in place through tonight,
with a slight risk for tomorrow and tomorrow night.

- more shower and thunderstorm chances thursday and friday.

&&

.discussion...

a challenging forecast continues to plague the great lakes region.
a hot and humid air mass with a high degree of instability is in
place this afternoon. temperatures have reached into the upper 80s
to 90 degrees as of 2 pm, with heat indices well into the 90s. a
couple more hours left to increase those values as well. the broken
line of convection which was just south of the border this morning
within the northern edge of the 850-700 mb theta-e ridge has crept
northward into southwest lower michigan and will continue to drift
north, presenting a opportunity for showers and thunderstorms this
evening and tonight. the highest instability and wind shear are
actually located over center/northern lower michigan this afternoon
per spc mesoscale analysis, making areas north of m-46 probably the
greatest concern for isolated severe storm, but the entire cwa has a
marginal risk through tonight. once again, hi-res solutions continue
to underestimate the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

a couple opportunities exist for ridge runners as upper level
impulses eject out of the central/northern plains both wednesday and
thursday. growing consensus points to a shortwave tracking through
northern lower michigan tomorrow (15-19z), with a surface
front/reflection along or north of i-69 providing the focus. even
with this potential earlier timing, there will most likely be
sufficient instability around to support severe storms alongside
high 0-6 km bulk shear values aoa 50 knots. a slight risk of severe
weather remains in place for both large hail and damaging winds.
machine learning even highlights the northern thumb region for a
tornado threat, which is supported by 0-1 km bulk shear values
around 25 knots. if this faster timing materializes, max
temperatures could come up short of the outgoing forecast in the 90-
94 degree range; thus, confidence is not high enough to issue a heat
advisory, as peak values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
could be short-lived once again.

yet another upper level impulse will race through wednesday night or
thursday morning. coupled with nocturnal low level jet enhancement,
strong thunderstorms producing heavy rain become a concern.
although, at this time, there is no indication of training. none-the-
less, pw values aoa 1.75 inches and 700 mb dew pts still locally
nearing 5 c will certainly be supportive of locally heavy rain, with
another opportunity or two between thursday night and friday night.
confidence remains low, however. longwave pattern guidance for the
weekend indicates upper level confluent flow and subsequent high
pressure building in, trending the forecast in a drier direction.

&&

.marine...

a low pressure system now entering ontario will steer the weather
across the great lakes through mid week. the warm front is now east
of lake huron with the cold front approaching lake mi leaving us in
the hot and humid warm sector. though the airmass is mostly stable
at this time, it hasn`t taken much mid level energy to spark
clusters of storms the last few days. the cold front will slowly
enter lower mi and drift se today and tomorrow leading to additional
rounds of storms through wednesday night and even into thursday if
the front stalls over the area. the weak gradient will keep speeds
down through the week though with max wind gusts rarely touching 20
knots. the slightly cooler air over the waters brings chances of
waterspouts with any of the storms over the lakes this week. the
very humid airmass over the lakes will also lead to fog development
over the waters, mainly the north half of lake huron which will need
to be watched for another possible dense fog advisory tonight.

&&

.hydrology...

a humid air mass will bring a chance of heavy rainfall within any
strong thunderstorm that develops. however, areal coverage and exact
timing remain elusive across lower michigan. periodic chances of
storms will exist right through friday. any strong thunderstorm will
have the potential to produce a quick 1-2 inches of rain, which can
lead to localized minor flooding of roads and poor-drainage areas.
there are currently no indications of training storms, though more
extensive flooding would become a concern if a mature mcs develops.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt tue sep 1 2026

aviation...

deep capping layer around 4.0 kft agl and strong convective
inhibition is expected to limit thunderstorm activity across the
majority of southeast michigan this afternoon and evening. elevated
altocumulus/accas pushing off of lake michigan is associated with a
surge of 850-700mb thetae advection that will push towards the
detroit terminals between 18-21z. uncertainty exists whether or not
any of this elevated shower activity will breach the cap and become
surface based. if it were, then tsra would be possible late this
afternoon at dtw. will monitor trends. model signal then suggests
thunderstorms will be possible late this evening across the central
lake michigan basin. there is data that suggests tsra will be
possible at mbs and fnt tonight between 05-08z. included as a prob30
group. otherwise, very low confidence in convection occurrence and
timing exists in this pattern.

d21/dtw convection...will watch shower activity push towards and to
the south of dtw. decided to go with vcsh as current trajectory
suggests south and west of the terminal.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......drk
hydrology....sf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.