Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
563
fxus61 kcle 271347
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
947 am edt mon apr 27 2026

.what has changed...
increased pop`s slightly early this evening through overnight
tonight since, for example, weak cape, including elevated cape,
and at least moderate effective bulk shear should allow upstream
organized showers and thunderstorms, over the mid ms valley and
vicinity as of 9:45 am edt, to persist generally ne`ward or
ene`ward and overspread our cwa beginning early this evening,
between 5 pm and 8 pm. in addition, increased forecast high
temperatures slightly for this late afternoon in the erie, pa
area. here, expect the combination of daytime heating amidst 850
mb temperatures moderating to near 10c by this late afternoon
and persistent downslope surface winds to allow highs to easily
reach the lower 70`s despite an increase in primarily
mid/upper-level cloud cover from the west this afternoon as
subtle shortwave trough axes aloft are preceded by moist
isentropic ascent.

&&

.key messages...
1) decaying storms will push into the area ahead of a cold front
tonight, bringing the potential for gusty winds across the area.

2) a cooler weather pattern returns midweek into early may. there
will be multiple overnight periods when the potential for frost will
arise as temperatures approach freezing.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a potent low pressure system is expected to impact parts of the
midwest today, bringing the potential for widespread convection
upstream of the area ahead of a cold front. this cold front is
expected to slowly push east through the day and into the evening
hours, pushing the aforementioned showers and storms east as well.
this robust low is expected to remain intact, however given the
diurnally unfavorable timing of storms reaching the area, there will
be limited concern for severe potential today. these storms should
be significantly weakening as they move into the cwa as the bulk of
forcing and the axis of greatest instability should remain south of
the area. with that being said, there is a strong llj of 50-60 knots
that is expected to push east ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. mixing layer heights should remain fairly elevated given the
ongoing convection, which may allow some of these showers and
thunderstorms to mix some of the llj down to the surface. these
gusts should remain fairly isolated in nature and likely associated
with the most well developed storms. in the day 1 outlook by spc,
the area is highlighted in general thunder, further messaging the
isolated potential for any severe threat as the decaying storms push
east, but still worth noting the wind threat.

in addition to gusty winds, periods of heavy rainfall, especially
across the southern tier of counties may lead to localized
reductions in visibilities and ponding on roadways. the overall
flooding concern however is minimal given the progressive nature of
the system. will continue to monitor upstream convection today and
destabilization over the cwa for any shift in the severe
potential.

key message 2...
after this robust system early in the week, a strong cold front will
act to usher in a canadian high with much cooler characteristics.
this will lead to a roller coast of temperatures with highs today
climbing into the mid to upper 70s, but only reaching into the 50s
by wednesday. overnight lows will follow a similar trend with
overnight lows wednesday night dropping into the 30s to low 40s.
these overnight temperatures are expected to continue to cool, with
some areas reaching into the low the mid 30s at times, especially on
nights when skies are clear and radiational cooling can be enhanced.
these temperatures will likely lead to local frost and possible
freeze concerns, impacting vegetation that has already begun to grow
given the early spring warm up. will continue to monitor for extent
and magnitude of this potential and the need for any headlines.
these below average temperatures look to stick around with the
entire area highlight in the cpc day 6-10 outlook for below normal
temperatures (this outlook covers may2 to 6).

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
winds will be on the increase today out of the southeast
15-20kts, then increasing to 20-30kts after 18z ahead of a cold
front that will be moving into the region from the west. after
03z tuesday, winds will become more southerly. expecting mvfr
visibilities in -shra, and eventually mvfr ceilings once the
showers saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere which will
be an hour or two after beginning. leaving -tsra out of the
prevailing forecast in the taf, but isolated thunder is
expected.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and low ceilings tuesday.
non-vfr likely again in showers and thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southeasterly winds 10-20kts today become southerly 20-30kts
ahead of a cold front tonight with wave heights increasing away
from shore at 1-3ft and 3-5ft in the open water zones.
behind the cold front, winds become onshore eventually late
tuesday around 10-15kts with nearshore wave heights 1-3ft
wednesday through friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04/jaszka
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
239
fxus63 kiwx 271420
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1020 am edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms will develop today, some storms
accompanied by strong to damaging winds late today and early
tonight. locally heavy rainfall likely.

- warm today with highs in the 70s then trending cooler the
remainder of the week with highs in the 50s.

- although a chance of rain returns tuesday night into
wednesday, the bulk of the period tuesday through this weekend
appears to be dry.

- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.

&&

.update...
issued at 1020 am edt mon apr 27 2026

focus continues on 1 or 2 rounds of thunderstorms with
uncertainty remaining as to coverage, duration and intensity
with each one.

regional radars show a narrow area of showers trying to take
shape from west of chicago to near terra haute. lack of strong
lift and deeper moisture is limiting this area to sprinkles at
best. the main focus remains on the area of showers and storms
from eastern ia southeast into western kentucky. cams generally
keep this together as it moves ne, reaching west and southwest
areas around 18z or so and then expanding across the area.
another line of storms was moving across n missouri and may
catch up with the above noted area. a rather messy setup may
evolve this afternoon with a non-zero threat of strong to
locally severe storms, but maybe more of a hydro concern as some
of the cams do suggest redevelopment or lingering precip across
the area for several hours. will need to make some modification
to pops over the next hour or 2 to possibly expand/increase
through the afternoon. trends for any increase in severe weather
will be monitored (brand new severe thunderstorm watch out for
central and southern il).

much uncertainty remains for later this evening into the
overnight hours with the evolution of the main show upstream
where a moderate risk has now been introduced across portions
of southwest il into southwest mo where supercells will develop
and expand/congeal into 1 or more clusters/lines that work
towards the area this evening. impacts from round 1 leave
questions as to the quality of the airmass as these move in. the
greatest severe threat remains with this second round when
better dynamics and possibly instability will exist.

last, but not least, there are signals of a wake low with the
departure of the first area of convection. hrrr has been the
most persistent with some gust potential of 40 to 50 mph
(locally higher) for a few hours this afternoon. at the present
time, no headlines or significant changes in winds are being
made but trends will be closely monitored.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 355 am edt mon apr 27 2026

the greatest forecast challenges looming ahead include timing
and coverage of strong to severe storms later today and tonight.
the leading upstream convective cluster had already moved into
western il at the time of this writing (3am edt). moisture
will surge north into northern indiana later today ahead of
this activity with dew points in the 60s given the latest hrrr
model data. given all of the characteristics of the upstream
airmass, an 80 knot mid level jet and the associated kinematics
with this system, severe thunderstorms are expected late today
into early tonight with damaging winds the greatest threat.

a fairly strong low level cap should erode quickly as this
strong system approaches from the west. showers and thunderstorms
will fill in rapidly west of the forecast area this morning. the
activity will intensify and move east as the potential for damaging
winds increases. the best chances for severe storms is expected
to be from about 3pm to 9pm edt.

much colder air will settle across the forecast area late this
week bringing the likelihood for frost and the potential for
freezing temperatures. given the recent mild temperatures and
the development of sensitive vegetation, frost and possibly
freeze headlines will likely be needed during this time.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 650 am edt mon apr 27 2026

two rounds of storms still expected today as a strong wave lifts
through the region. the first round arrives 18-22z with lower
chances for thunderstorms. the better chances will be with the
second round after 00z. kfwa has the best chance of storms and
it is possible there is very little gap between the two rounds
there. storms exit by 06z but mvfr stratus will linger well into
tuesday morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
627
fxus63 kdtx 270959
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
559 am edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- warmer today with mostly dry conditions through the bulk of the
day.

- showers and thunderstorms expected mainly after 8pm this evening
into tomorrow morning.

- stretch of below average temperatures latter half of the week.

&&

.aviation...

southeast mi remains under the influence of upper ridging through
the daylight period which promotes prevailing vfr. the gradient in
place gradually increases, resulting in an uptick in southeast wind
magnitude this afternoon with gusts on the order of 25 kt at times.
a surge of low- and mid-level moisture arrives along a warm front
late this evening into the overnight period, with scattered to
numerous showers likely with embedded thunderstorms possible.
instability will be remain low, so a weakening trend is expected
with this convection. low-level wind shear may be a concern
overnight as a 50 kt llj passes through the 1-2 kft layer, but near-
surface wind is currently expected to remain sufficiently gusty to
mitigate widespread llws. mid-level ceilings develop this afternoon
and trend toward mvfr early tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection...several windows for upstream convection to
approach the area, currently centered on 22 to 02z and 04 to 07z.
instability will be a limiting factor locally and convection is
expected to exhibit a weakening trend with eastward progression.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms tonight.

* moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet after midnight, high tuesday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 am edt mon apr 27 2026

discussion...

mid-upper level ridge axis slides east this morning with mostly dry
and stable conditions expected to hold through today. lower level
flow will gradually settle out of the east this morning and
eventually southeast by this afternoon in response to the upstream
low pressure system and the high pressure to the east. this will
bring a more notable increase in warm air advection today as 850mb
flow turns southerly and draw in 850mb temperatures of 11-12c with
925mb temperatures peaking at around 15c this afternoon. mixing
profiles support daytime high temperatures in the low-mid 70s for
inland areas while slightly cooler temperatures will exists along
the lakeshores give the onshore flow. the approaching warm front
arrival with the increasing mid level moisture noted by the
increasing mid-high clouds may allow for isolated showers/sprinkles
this afternoon. no need to increasing pops due to the dry and stable
surface conditions as 15-20% should suffice in western portions of
the cwa. increasing pressure gradient and mixing heights will bring
wind gust potential up to 30-35 mph later this afternoon with the
higher end of the spectrum mainly across the saginaw valley and
thumb.

the low pressure system across the mid mississippi valley will eject
northeastward throughout today reaching lake superior area by early
tomorrow morning. ongoing convection associated with this system
will be driven through the midwest during the evening. still some
differences in the hi-res space in regards to exact arrival of
convection depending on how activity evolves through the evening.
activity should arrive to southeast michigan in the 23-03z window
with likely rain and a chance for thunderstorms along the warm
frontal zone into the overnight. strong instability will be lacking
with the bulk of activity moving through at the diurnal minimum, but
there may be enough instability to support elevated thunderstorms.
of note, several solutions point towards a generally weakening and
waning coverage by the time it arrive locally given the lack of
instability. pwats arriving within the main corridor of higher
thetae are up to near 1.25 inches, which supports average rainfall
amounts in the 0.20-0.50" range. latest guidance has lowered qpf
amounts across the eastern half of the cwa resulting from that model
signal for waning coverage and intensity. any thunderstorm that can
manage to maintain some strength could still produce rainfall
amounts greater than a half inch given the available moisture. the
systems cold front will push through mid-late morning tomorrow,
which will maintain chances for precipitation through the morning.

cooler and drier air will settle into the region in the wake of the
morning cold front tomorrow with afternoon highs dipping slightly
into the upper 50s across the north to low-mid 60s across the south.
a southern stream wave triggers a low pressure system along the
frontal zone that lifts across the ohio valley tomorrow night into
wednesday. while drier air will have entered the region, enough
favorable forcing with the system may produce scattered light
showers across parts of the area, mainly south and east portions of
the cwa. bulk of activity with that system is currently
forecast to hold south of the state.

broad troughing extends out from central canada during the remainder
of the week that will carry periodic embedded waves over michigan.
the result will be at least occasional low chances for precipitation
in the form of isolated to scattered light rain showers during this
period. otherwise, expect most of the area to stay dry for the late
week. troughing and persistent north to northwest flow during this
time likely brings slightly below normal temperatures with highs in
the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

marine...

high pressure remains overhead to start the day before gradually
departing to the east late this afternoon-evening. as this occurs,
southeasterly winds begin to strength as the next low lifts out of
the central plains towards the northern great lakes. a 45-60kt llj
develops over the central great lakes tonight however accompanying
warm advection promotes a stable overlake thermal profile limiting
mixing potential. local probabilistic guidance only advertises
around a 30% chance to reach 34kts. given the thermal profile,
confidence is not high enough that lake huron will see 3 consecutive
hours of gales to warrant a warning. that said, can`t rule out some
gusts near 34kts, particularly over the north-central waters where
fetch is maximized. slightly better potential for strong gusts comes
with the arrival of showers and storms late night-early tuesday as
rain promotes a shift towards more neutral profiles, however this
set-up would warrant short-fused special marine warnings over gales.
small craft advisories are in effect for all nearshore waters this
evening into tuesday due to winds/waves. system`s cold front crosses
daytime tuesday ending storm chances as well as flipping winds to
the northwest. rapidly weakening pressure gradient on the backedge
of the low keeps these winds under 30kts as weak high pressure
briefly follows.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt tuesday
for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt tuesday
for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.