Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
759 pm edt sat may 2 2026

.what has changed...
our day shift issued a frost advisory and freeze warning from 11
pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for all of northern oh and nw
pa. based on latest trends in observations, including radar
data, and nwp model guidance, periodic sprinkles are possible
early this evening and then periodic snow flurries are possible
late this evening through about daybreak sunday as a shortwave
trough axis moves se`ward across our region late this evening
through about daybreak sunday morning. this precip will
primarily result from moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of
the shortwave trough axis, releasing weak potential instability
in and near the 850-700 mb layer. in addition, very light lake-
effect precip is possible through about daybreak sunday in
north- central oh and especially ne oh and nw pa as an
unusually-cold mean low-level flow backs from nw`erly to w`erly
over/downwind of ~11c lake erie, yet weak lake-induced cape
wanes gradually via the following: low- level dry air advection
on the synoptic- scale; a lowering subsidence inversion
accompanying a ridge at the surface and aloft that will build
behind the shortwave trough. however, the chance of measurable
precipitation and measurable snowfall remains very low, so
elected to maintain pop`s of mainly less than 15% through
daybreak sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) some improvements coming to the temperatures into monday.

2) strong frontal system midweek brings more rain to the area and
temperatures back down into the 50s and likely not drying out until
after thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
frost/freeze expected tonight.

while the main upper trough bringing chilly and wet weather to the
region the past couple of days exits, high pressure moving west to
east south of the cwa will finally get east enough to bring a warm
advective pattern. 850mb temperatures that have been below zero will
creep above zero with low level warm air advection for monday and
tuesday, and will see temperature improvements each day,
accordingly. some low end shower activity is possible sunday night
in some short lived isentropic lift mainly at 290k. an upper level
wave brings shower/storm chances ahead of a strengthening frontal
system late monday into tuesday. could see temperatures in the
70s in places on monday.

key message 2...
ahead of the cold front, showers and storms to become more
numerous. as the front moves into the southern great lakes, forward
progress of the system will likely be slowed as waves of surface low
pressure develop along the front. this will serve to lengthen the
amount of time that the rain chances settle over the cwa as those
waves of low pressure keep the front from pushing eastward. high
pops will linger with the front through wednesday before finally
exiting, only to be followed by a trailing upper trough axis
thursday as broad low pressure aloft reclaims the great lakes.
temperatures back below normal and into the 50s for the end of the
week before finally showing slow improvement again into the
weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
aloft, w`erly to nw`erly flow is expected through 00z/mon as a
shortwave ridge builds from the upper midwest and vicinity, and
eventually settles over our region. ahead of this ridge, a
subtle shortwave trough axis will move se`ward across our
region between ~03z/sun and ~12z/sun. at the surface, the ridge
builds slowly from the western great lakes, lower mo valley,
and vicinity. our regional surface winds trend light and
variable through ~08z/sun. thereafter, sw`erly to wsw`erly
surface winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected through 00z/mon
and should gust up to about 20 to 25 knots at times, especially
between ~14z/sun and ~22z/sun.

vfr and scattered to broken low/mid/upper-level cloudiness are
expected through the taf period. primarily dry weather is
expected through ~00z/mon. however, periodic and scattered
sprinkles and/or snow flurries are expected ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave trough axis. in addition, periodic and
scattered lake-effect sprinkles and/or snow flurries are
possible generally southeast of lake erie through ~06z/sun and
then generally east of the lake through ~12z/sun.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected sunday
night through thursday. occasional thunderstorms are expected
during the afternoon into nighttime hours of monday, tuesday,
and wednesday, respectively.

&&

.marine...
some lingering 2 footers out there early this afternoon after a
push of 10-15kt northerly winds this morning, but those are
decreasing with tranquil marine conditions taking over. west-
southwest winds increase modestly to 10-15kt overnight tonight,
trending a bit stronger (15-20kt) on sunday. winds may exceed
20kt at times sunday and especially sunday night, building 3-5
foot waves in the open waters. south-southwest winds briefly
slacken to 10-15kt during the day monday, increasing to 15-25kt
again monday night into tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. winds flip northerly behind the front late tuesday into
tuesday night, diminishing into wednesday. the impression is
that small craft advisories may be needed at times for stronger
southwest winds late sunday/sunday night, and again monday night
and tuesday through the frontal passage. any advisories would
be marginal and future shifts will evaluate the potential need.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
ohz003-006>009-011-012-017-018-027-036-089.
freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
ohz010-013-014-019>023-028>033-037-038-047.
pa...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
paz001.
freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for
paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...jaszka
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
650 pm edt sat may 2 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory has been issued east of in-15, where
temperatures dip into the mid to upper 30s tonight.

- milder and breezy on sunday with a slight chance (20-30%) for
a few rain showers in the afternoon/evening.

- warm and breezy on monday with chances (40%) for showers and
storms increasing late in the day on monday into monday night.
a few storms could become strong to severe.

- cooler temperatures return beyond monday with periods of rain
(50-80%) tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm edt sat may 2 2026

high pressure continues to sink south and east of the forecast area
over the next 24 hours and this allows warmer air and clouds to come
in to the area in the mid levels. this pushes the axis of cold air
slightly eastward and provides a bit of a floor for temperatures
tonight. additionally, warming winds may pick up early sunday
morning to stunt radiational cooling and preclude frost chances
altogether. given possibility of mid to upper 30 low
temperatures tonight, still went with a frost advisory mainly
for areas east of in-15.

with a cold front sliding through on sunday, some showers swing
through. with how dry dew points are, rising from the 20s saturday
night back into the 40s by day`s end sunday, it may be enough to
delay the rain until the afternoon at the earliest. because
everything comes into the area piecemeal, rainfall amounts appear
fairly inconsequential.

dewpoints continue to rise overnight and into monday, but they never
really hit 60 degrees. additionally, the pockets of the better
moisture attempt to get into the area during the daytime according
to the nam, but they`re really not enough to help provide a better
moisture profile for heavy rain potential. it is interesting to see
the nam indicating what appears to be a warm front attempt to lift
northward later in the day in conjunction with the low level jet to
bring in better mid level lapse rates and maintain better shear (30
kts of effective shear and some low level turning of winds), but we
don`t really have any large scale ascent to aide in better lift
across the area until we get to tuesday. this would tend to make the
limiting factor be that the ingredients need to line up for strong
to severe storms. is the late day lifting warm front enough to help
initiate strong to severe storms? it`s hard to say. agree with the
spc that the main severe threats appear to be hail and wind, but a
tornado cannot be ruled out.

by the time we get to tuesday and wednesday, there appears to be a
bottleneck in the flow over the atlantic and it appears the front
moving through the area stalls over the ohio river valley somewhere,
which means its ultimate location matters if we are going to get
substantial rain or not. as such, there are still differences in
timing and placement during this period and into thursday. right
now, the best chance for 1 inch or more rainfall appears to lie in
the 24 hours prior to 12z wednesday and mainly south of us-24. this
corresponds to where and when the best large scale ascent moves
through this area.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 645 pm edt sat may 2 2026

quiet weather continues this evening with high pressure across
the mid mississippi river valley. winds will diminish after
sunset. skies are clearing downwind of lake michigan per
visible satellite imagery, although additional high clouds may
filter in overnight. winds quickly increase sunday morning as a
result of a tightening pressure gradient; southwest winds will
be sustained around 15 kt, with gusts as high as 25 to maybe
even 30 kts through the afternoon. a disturbance brings chances
for light rain showers between 18-00z tomorrow. nevertheless,
vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the taf forecast
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for inz006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for miz079>081.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt sunday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt sat may 2 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect tonight from midnight to 8am.

- breezy with moderating temperatures and some scattered showers
sunday.

- abnormally warm monday with chances for showers and some embedded
thunderstorms, more so late monday into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

the center of surface high pressure settles into the ohio valley
placing se mi between it and low pressure in northern ontario
tonight. evidence of this trend shows up first in light wind backing
sw with a brief decrease in clouds this evening. a gradual return of
vfr mid and high clouds follows after midnight through sunday
morning with a light rain shower in the fnt to mbs area toward noon.
sw wind becomes the weather highlight as gusts approach 30 knots
sunday afternoon under still vfr mid level clouds into sunday
evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 351 pm edt sat may 2 2026

discussion...

high pressure centered over the plains is extending northeastward
into the great lakes under a broad upper level trough resulting in a
cool and cloudy day. highs today only reaching around 50f will set
the stage for another cool night once the diurnally driven cu mixes
out this evening. issued a frost advisory from midnight to 8am
tonight given the high pressure overhead, clearing skies this
evening, lingering thermal trough, and dewpoints falling into the
mid-upper 20s. still not a slam dunk advisory as an approaching
shortwave trough over the midwest will bring a developing warm front
up towards se mi which could bring some mid cloud back in early
sunday morning. in addition winds don`t look to go calm and will
start increasing sunday morning. still should be enough opportunity
for some frost development tonight before temps trend warmer to
start the week.

the weak mid level shortwave will rotate around the broader upper
low (centered to the north) and through lower mi sunday. a
developing warm front will lift through the area early providing
some forcing along with theta e advection along with increasing
winds as low level jet ramps up to around 35 knots. best chances for
rain will be across the north with much of the southern half of the
cwa likely remaining dry through the day. mixing depths to around
7kft will tap into the llj which will lead to a gusty afternoon with
winds to around 30 mph. the increasing southwesterly winds will
provide a boost in temps with highs back up to around 60. the wave
shears apart overnight with the best focus passing both north and
south of the local area so shower chances remain, but probably more
of scattered activity at best.

monday will be quiet in terms of precip and warm with temps in the
70s as the upper low pivots around the pattern becomes briefly zonal
with slight ridging until the next stronger trough moves into the
region on monday night into tuesday. warm sector slides into
southern mi after 00z tuesday with the nose of the next llj moving
across the state line. this looks to accompany a low spinning up
along the cold front resulting in increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. instability climbs with mucape reaching 1000-1500
j/kg. pwats rise just above 1 inch with surface dewpoints topping
out around 50f. spc day 3 outlook has se mi in a general
thunderstorm risk with sliver of the area south of i94 in a marginal
risk. main risk looks to be elevated thunderstorms producing large
hail but a few strong gusts would be possible. the front remains
draped across the area tuesday, finally pushing east overnight so
rain chances will continue through mid week. thermal trough remains
overhead through the end of the week which will direct weak mid
level waves through the area keeping chances of precip around.

marine...

a diffuse area of high pressure will continue to build in across the
great lakes today which will retain lighter north to northwesterly
flow along with low-end chances for an isolated rain shower. a warm
front will move through tomorrow which will back winds to the south-
southwest as wind speeds elevate through the day. locally stronger
winds will be found within the saginaw bay through central lake
huron given the favorable fetch with localized gust potential around
30 knots, but all nearshore locations will approach or achieve gusts
of 20 to 25 knots. small craft advisories have been issued as a
result. wind speeds diminish late tomorrow night through monday
morning, but return with similar intensity during daylight hours
which will likely result in another round of small craft advisories.
rain showers will be possible tomorrow and monday with a very low
chance for a rumble of thunder.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt sunday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm edt sunday for lhz441>443.

small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm edt sunday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm edt sunday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.