Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
310
fxus61 kcle 081739
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1239 pm est sun nov 8 2026

.what has changed...
no significant forecast changes were made with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will build in and turn milder early this week.

2) colder temperatures and unsettled weather will return towards
the end of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure over the lower ohio valley will start to build
into the area today. most of the cloud cover has eroded away
across northwest and north central ohio. lingering lake effect
clouds are still holding on to far neoh and nwpa this morning.
high temperatures will be seasonable today in the middle to
upper 50s. a weak cold front will brush by to the northeast
tonight and bring a few scattered rain showers to far neoh and
nwpa. monday`s high temperatures will be similar as today in the
lower to middle 50s. high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern through mid week with high temperatures in the
middle 50s to lower 60s through wednesday. dry weather is
expected monday through wednesday afternoon.

key message 2...
model guidance indicates the potential for an unsettled and
colder weather pattern by the end of this week. there are some
forecast model differences and uncertainty thursday through
saturday. the main message for the long term forecast period
will be that a deep upper level trough will develop and dig
across the great lakes and much of the eastern u.s. thursday
through saturday. a low pressure system and cold front will
sweep through the ohio valley into the new england region
thursday into friday. the track and strength of this system
will have an impact on what type of weather we see. right now,
we will mention colder temperatures and the likely chance for
rain wednesday night and thursday, possibly mixed with some wet
snow at times thursday night through saturday. high temps will
be in the 40s and overnight temps in the 30s.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr conditions are favored through the majority of the taf
period, although mid-level clouds will increase across ne oh/nw
pa as a cold front pushes southeast across the area later
tonight. scattered showers are likely at keri later tonight and
possibly into early monday morning which may briefly result in
mvfr conditions in lower ceilings and reduced visibilities if a
heavier shower moves over the terminal. otherwise, lake effect
clouds in the 3500 to 5000 ft agl range will persist at ne
oh/nw pa terminals through the end of the taf period.

winds will be quite breezy through 18z monday. southwest surface
winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots are
expected this afternoon with flow becoming more westerly and
diminishing diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to
25 knots near 00z tonight. winds will likely remain elevated
along the immediate lakeshore (including keri) through monday
morning with periodic gusts to 25 to 30 knots likely. northwest
winds will develop behind the front monday morning.

outlook...non-vfr likely in rain showers and low ceilings
wednesday night through friday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories are in effect today through monday
afternoon. a surface pressure gradient will increase today leading
to southwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. wave
heights will subsequently build to 5-8 feet across the nearshore
waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of the central and
eastern basins today. a weak cold front will swing southeastward
across the lake tonight into early monday morning causing
winds to return from the northwest 20 to 25 knots. high
pressure build in and remain in control monday with wind speeds
decreasing 10 to 20 knots and wave heights subsiding to 2 feet
or less by monday night.

there will likely be a brief window tuesday with southwesterly
winds increasing 20 to 25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet.
another set of small craft advisories may be needed for the
central and eastern basins. a stronger low pressure may develop
and track across the upper ohio valley later this week with
stronger winds and higher waves again on lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 3 pm est monday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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797
fxus63 kiwx 081754
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1254 pm est sun nov 8 2026

.key messages...

- remaining dry with normal to above normal temperatures through
tuesday.

- trending cooler late wednesday through friday with chances for
mainly rain, late wednesday afternoon into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1246 pm est sun nov 8 2026

the pattern across the conus starts with a trough across the east
and ridge in the southwest that waves are moving eastward overtop
of. one such trough vacated the area this morning bringing
subsidence into monday. a brief period of warm advection later
monday into monday night is overtaken by a brief period cold
advection as another wave passes by to our north in the northwest
flow. not much surface cooling occurs as the cold front washes out
across the area and it`s a dry frontal passage.

this series of waves has been able to affect the ridge in the west
so that by the time the next wave overtops it, it`s able to dive
farther southward. at the same time, an upper low in eastern canada
will help to push some cold air in behind this wave so that it`ll
likely be rain at the start here later wednesday. then, we`ll have
to watch for the timing of the cold air arrival and if there`s going
to be some low level moisture to tap into. lake effect precipitation
could change to snow thursday night into friday as the cold air
makes it to the surface. 850 mb temperatures get to -4 to -8c
thursday night, which is right around what`s needed to produce lake
effect snow. trajectories will also matter for where the snow bands
end up. that will be out of the area by sunday night or monday as
surface high pressure noses in. those 850 mb temps don`t rise above
freezing until we get to next week. gfs soundings are normally dry
that far out so it`ll be interesting to see how the short range
guidance handles it and this will help to address whether snow is
heavy enough to overcome antecedant warm air. the nbm has about a 20-
30 percent chance of measureable (>0.1") of snow late thu night-fri
am. the nbm has high temperatures rebounding back into the 40s at
least by the weekend and potentially as early as friday meaning the
snow should disappear quickly especially if that dry air remains in
atmospheric column. wind gusts also increase to 25 to 40 mph on
thursday with 25 to 30 mph gusts still possible friday and saturday.

dry air takes over into the first half of next week after the
cool/wetter air moves eastward as mid level ridging/surface high
pressure slide southeastward.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1243 pm est sun nov 8 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals with west-southwest
flow shifting more northwest through the period. gusts around
25 knots or so are expected through early evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am est monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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870
fxus63 kdtx 081803
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
103 pm est sun nov 8 2026

.key messages...

- milder and breezy today with gusts up to 30 mph.

- gradual warm up early this week with highs climbing into the low
60s tuesday.

- rain chances increase late this week ahead of a cool down.

&&

.aviation...

low pressure passing to the north with an attendant cold front is
leading to increasingly southwest to west wind gradient this
afternoon. wind gusts of 25-30 knots is expected through the
remainder of the afternoon. increased low level moisture ahead of
this front is bringing a corridor of mvfr ceilings, but should
remain focused north of the south metro terminals for the next
couple hours. have maintained tempo groups for these ceilings.
eventual lifting to low vfr for the taf sites later this afternoon
into tonight. gusts ease but will stay sustained to around 10 knots.
dry frontal passage expected with maybe some spotty showers nearby
to the east of kmbs and kfnt.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am est sun nov 8 2026

discussion...

a dry and stable airmass remains in place this morning after an
extended period of clear skies and subsequent radiative cooling
overnight. temperatures have dropped into the low-mid 30s as of 3
am, with another few hours of cooling expected to bring lows into
the upper 20s in some spots. the decoupled boundary layer sits
beneath ongoing waa where h8 temperatures peak at 7-8 c, meaning as
diurnal mixing erodes the inversion, temperatures climb into the mid
50s. veering vertical wind profiles also show strengthening low
level winds throughout the day, which the growing boundary layer
will tap into to produce breezy wsw winds gusting to 30 mph during
the daylight hours.

looking at goes-19 satellite imagery, a band of mid-high cloud is
accelerating eastward into lower michigan on the nose of a 90-95
knot upper level jet (noted as the dry slot in mid level wv
imagery). this moisture corridor represents the lead edge of height
falls associated with the mature stacked low over western ontario,
which sends a weak surface front across se michigan by early this
afternoon. while the frontal passage itself will be dry, subsequent
cold advection will add to the moisture pool by establishing
moisture flux off of the lake aggregate. hi-res models show a
convergence signal over the saginaw valley/thumb which could lead to
shower activity across these portions of the forecast area, so long
as lake effect bands do not set up entirely offshore. elsewhere,
stratus expands south for mostly cloudy skies overnight.

cloud cover and lake induced showers linger into monday morning
before moisture is scoured out by the brief influence of high
pressure. surface pressure during the first half of the week
fluctuates between 1010-1020mb in a progressive, low amplitude
pressure pattern. the weak nature of the waves has little impact on
temperature prospects, with tuesday actually being the warmest day
of the period (highs in the low 60s) despite a surface trough
passing through earlier in the day. reliance on pacific moisture
just does not provide enough depth for any meaningful rain chances
over land through wednesday.

a more pronounced pattern shift arrives late in the week as a much
stronger low slides across the ohio valley, followed by colder
canadian air crashing in from the north. this could introduce our
first shot at mixed precipitation with the arrival of the coldest
air of the season.

marine...

strengthening gradient flow materializes across the central great
lakes today as the next low pressure system clips the northern
waterways through early monday. this initially supports breezy
southwesterly winds with gusts peaking between 25 and 30 knots,
considering the initial stable warm advection regime. however, as
this low exits, winds will veer to the northwest behind the
attendant cold front, ushering in the next dose of colder air.
instability then builds over the warmer lake waters which deepens
mixing depths and taps into stronger flow above the lake surface. a
gale warning remains in effect given the cold advection and
consensus in lower column wind speeds. gusts should hover near the
gale threshold across the northern half of lake huron this evening
through early monday. meanwhile, small craft advisories are in
effect for the southern huron nearshores. expect periods of gusts
at/above 25 knots and waves in excess of 4 feet. quick shifts to
shortwave ridging monday and then back to a troughing pattern with a
dry frontal passage develops early next week, with lower potential
to reach marine headline criteria.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est monday for lhz361-
362.

small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.