Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
709
fxus61 kcle 112358
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
758 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

.what has changed...
rain chances have increased a bit for saturday, but otherwise
the forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were
needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on saturday
and possibly on sunday. there is limited potential for severe
weather each day.

2) warm weather is expected on tuesday and wednesday with
additional shower and storm chances possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will lift into the region on saturday, allowing
showers to spread east into the region throughout the day. there
may be just enough destabilization for some embedded
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening, although
widespread cloud cover and rain may prevent destabilization that
would be sufficient for stronger storms. as of now, the best
instability will be to the east and southeast of the area,
although a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out, especially if
shower/cloud coverage ends up being lower than expected in
eastern zones during peak diurnal instability saturday
afternoon. there will likely be a break in showers/storms
saturday night before scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms potentially develop as a cold front moves
southeast across the area at some point on sunday. there will
definitely be better forcing/shear on sunday afternoon which may
support some organized showers/storms, although there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty in cloud cover, moisture,
instability, and the exact timing of the cold front. spc has
placed locations generally east of i-75 in a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) of severe weather sunday.

key message 2...
dry weather will return to the region for monday, however
unsettled weather with periods of showers and storms will return
to the region tuesday night through late week as a series of
disturbances move across the area. a warm and humid air mass
with daytime temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s
and lower 70s will be in place over the region, which may allow
for the potential for stronger storms and maybe heavy rainfall.
that said, it`s still a bit too far out to have high confidence
in the timing/placement of storms and any associated hazards.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions into early saturday. a weak system will track
east-northeast across the area on saturday, bringing a few hour
long period of showers with perhaps some thunder to most taf
sites. confidence is highest at mfd, cak, and yng and lowest at
tol. thunder potential is high enough to mention in tafs at cak
and yng, lower elsewhere (so no inclusion) but not zero either.
the batch of showers can be accompanied by occasional vsby and
cig restrictions mainly to mvfr, with brief ifr vsby possible
with any heavier showers or thunder. the showers will exit to
the east into saturday evening. just beyond the end of the tafs,
a period of mainly vfr is expected the first half of saturday
night. light winds and a humid airmass may support some fog
into early sunday morning, to be addressed in future cycles.

light east-northeast winds at under 10kt this evening shift
southeast overnight and south-southwest on saturday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms sunday
afternoon and evening. non-vfr again possible in scattered
showers/storms tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
east winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and evening will shift
to the southeast ahead of a warm front early saturday morning.
flow will then become more southwesterly behind the warm front
by saturday afternoon with winds in the open waters potentially
increasing to 10 to 15 knots late saturday night.
north/northwest winds will develop behind a cold front sunday
evening with winds likely increasing to 15 to 20 knots for a
period late sunday evening through early monday. based on
current wind/wave forecast, small craft advisories and beach
hazards statements will likely be needed for portions of the
lake during this time. winds will diminish throughout the day
monday with southeast winds expected by monday evening. offshore
flow is expected on tuesday, though winds will likely remain
below small craft advisory criteria. winds may become more
variable by wednesday, but they should remain relatively light.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sullivan
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
010
fxus63 kiwx 112324
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
724 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable through tonight.

- scattered showers are likely (with an isolated storm or two possible)
along and south of us 24 saturday morning through early
afternoon. nw indiana and far sw lower michigan will remain
dry.

- warmer and humid by midweek. low chances for rain and storms
(20%) late sunday into monday, with better chances (30-60%)
late tuesday into wednesday.

- there is a moderate swim risk forecast on sunday for southeast
lake mi beaches. breaking waves and currents are expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

surface high pressure overhead the great lakes region is making for
a beautiful end to the work week today with lower humidity,
seasonable temperatures, and some sunshine. high level clouds can be
seen advecting northward on visible satellite imagery but dry
conditions are expected to prevail today and tonight. light
southeasterly winds and waa will boost temperatures into the upper
70s to low 80s this afternoon.

a stationary front currently centered over the ohio river valley
will be the focus for 40-60% chances for rain and storms on
saturday. scattered showers are likely with potentially a
thunderstorm or two on saturday, mainly for the southeastern half of
our forecast area. this feature will lift north as a warm front on
saturday with an attendant 500mb shortwave. then, an upper level
trough and surface cold front will move through the great lakes
region later saturday evening. increased waa and moisture transport
alongside lift from the warm front will spark chances for showers
and storms, especially along and south of us 24 in indiana and
ohio. scattered showers are expected to begin before daybreak
between 06- 09z saturday and end around 18-21z). severe weather
is not expected at this time, however, an isolated storm or two
will be possible due to surface based instability of up to 1000
j/kg by midday saturday. shear and low/mid level lapse rates
will be too weak for any organized severe weather. northwest
indiana and southwest lower michigan will likely remain dry, as
the cold front likely passes through early saturday morning
prior to peak diurnal heating. high temperatures will be in the
low to mid 80s area-wide on saturday.

stay weather aware if you have plans to head to lake michigan on
sunday! behind the cold frontal passage on saturday, waves are
expected to increase for southeastern lake michigan beaches in
berrien and la porte counties. caa and northwesterly flow sunday
behind the front will yield onshore flow and waves of 2-3 ft,
meaning the swim risk will be moderate for both la porte and berrien
counties on sunday. breaking waves and currents are expected.

the rest of the weekend into early next week appears dry, with low
chances (20%) for rain/storms late sunday into monday morning with a
shortwave and associated upper level trough that passes through the
great lakes. with a potentially closed upper level low building
across the pacific northwest, this allows yet another upper level
ridge to amplify across the central and eastern conus early next
week. surface high pressure builds over the eastern us on tuesday
too, with return flow and moisture from the gulf ushering in warmer
than normal temperatures and humid conditions underneath the peak of
the upper level ridge over the great lakes. another frontal system
likely approaches late tuesday and wednesday, with additional
chances for rain and storms (30-60%). this system may be slow moving
or potentially even stall to our northwest (still mixed model
guidance results on if it actually comes through our area or not),
depending on how strong the upper level ridge is. there are no clear
signs of fall in any of the long range guidance as our forecast area
looks to remain sandwiched between hot and humid air to our south
and cooler, drier air to our north for the foreseeable future.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 723 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

surface high pressure slides east and mid level ridging transitions
to a trough swinging through by taf end time. this allows s winds to
become sw winds by the end of period and for showers and
thunderstorms to become possible at fwa after 9z, potentially with a
few dry hours before 18z. overall, it appears most hours lean vfr
through the period. however, there could be a period between 10 and
15z where thunderstorms bring some reduction into mvfr so will use a
prob30 group to indicate that potential.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
985
fxus63 kdtx 120256
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1056 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

.key messages...

- a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm saturday, otherwise a
quiet weekend, accompanied by normal temperatures.

- increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms next week.

&&

.aviation...

dry and stable conditions hold early this morning within light
southeast flow, ensuring continued vfr conditions with limited
overall cloud coverage. winds veer to southerly during the morning
period as a low pressure system tracks through the ohio valley. this
will offer a window for deeper moisture to arrive locally north of
this system, resulting in some increase in lower vfr cloud during
the morning. daytime heating will work to scatter out this cloud
field heading into the afternoon hours. prevailing winds from the
south-southwest, with modest afternoon gustiness possible
particularly from ptk northward. some increase in lower vfr cloud
will occur again as a cold front moves through saturday night.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and saturday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 331 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

discussion...

western periphery of high pressure centered over the eastern great
lakes will continue to support dry weather under mostly clear skies
for the remainder of the day. return flow from the departing high
pressure will allow the nose of enhanced low-level theta-e air to
lift into southern michigan. increasing moisture advection and weak
convergence aloft will provide a focus for elevated ascent,
supporting a chance for showers mainly around or south of i-94.
timing for this potential will be from the mid morning hours into
the early afternoon. a weak elongated shortwave will move through in
the afternoon providing an additional chance for a stray weak
shower, followed by a cold front late tomorrow night into early
sunday morning. overall forcing looks to remain weak for afternoon
and evening activity which will cap pop chances aob 15%. so while
mostly quiet, a light shower or stray activity cannot be ruled out.

a secondary cold front will enter sunday evening into early monday
morning which will be the focal point for showers/storm activity
pending where better forcing aligns along the front. nbm holds
chances (30%) across the tri-cities and thumb with a subset of
global models pushing this potential south across the southern half
of the cwa. in either case, pop values remain low with minimal qpf
potential. high pressure quickly builds in on monday supporting dry
weather. more active conditions will build in tuesday through the
midweek period. there is increasing convergence between models
highlighting a frontal boundary setting up across lower michigan.
longer residence time of this front will provide multiple chances
for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, pending the final
position of the boundary. otherwise, temperatures hold around
seasonal normal values today and through the weekend, with slightly
cooler temperatures building in briefly by monday after the passage
of the cold front.

marine...

high pressure will continue to bring benign marine conditions to the
region through saturday before unsettled weather comes back in. an
active pattern returns late saturday into sunday as a low pressure
lifts thought northern ontario drags a cold front across the area in
the morning. overnight/early day arrival and detachment from the
parent low greatly limit any shower/storm chances. moderate trailing
northwest flow develops over northern lake huron daytime sunday with
peak gusts between 25-30kts. this front looks to stall somewhere
near southern lake huron offering an isolated shower chance into
monday. a more dynamic system then lifts out of the plains and over
the northern great lakes monday night-tuesday. preceding warm, humid
airmass will fuel better scattered storm chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...am
marine.......kdk/ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.