Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
752 am edt wed mar 11 2026

.what has changed...
severe thunderstorms remain a concern for today with damaging
winds as the main threat. our wind gust forecast continues to
trend upward for friday`s strong clipper-type low pressure
system.

&&

.key messages...
1.) severe thunderstorms are possible today including the threat
for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding possible.

2.) big temperature swings and periods of unsettled weather
expected late week through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
the severe weather potential for later today is somewhat
uncertain and depends on what happens with this morning`s
convection that is moving into northwest ohio. almost the entire
area remains in a slight risk for severe storms for today. there
is a weakening mcs moving into nwoh and the toledo area this
early morning. there is a frontal boundary that has barely
slipped southward into nwoh as well. south of this front,
temperatures are in the 60s and north of this front temps in the
40s.

over the next few hours and through sunrise, the potential for
an isolated strong to severe storm will be mainly confined to
nwoh. the forecast is a little more murky on how the convection
will evolve later in the day. we kinda like the solution from
the latest 3km nam. scattered showers and storms will develop
later this morning across much of northern ohio and track
eastward into nwpa by midday. a broken line of convection will
develop by midday or early afternoon over nwoh with the actual
cold front pushing through. this line of convection will
continuing to track eastward across the area during the
afternoon. the best potential for severe weather looks to be
east of i-75 and south of the ohio turnpike later today.
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main threat
followed by an isolated tornado or two threat. some large hail
may be possible. any kinks or surges in the line of convection
will favor a damaging wind threat and a qlcs tornado threat as
well. locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding may be
possible. the front will clear through the area by early evening
with rain tapering off from west to east.

key message #2:
it will turn colder on thursday. the next system will be a
strong clipper-type low pressure that will track through the
great lakes on friday. some brief light rain showers may be
possible with the system on friday. temperatures will be milder
in the 50s. the bigger weather impact from the system on friday
will be with the wind. southwest to westerly winds will increase
20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph very possible. the wind
gusts have trends upward for friday and will be monitoring for a
potential wind advisory needed for most of the area.

the weather will be quiet on saturday before a bigger weather
system impacts the region sunday through monday. a deep upper
level trough will develop over the region sunday into monday. a
strong low pressure system will track from the midwest into the
southern/eastern great lakes late sunday into sunday night. a
trailing strong cold front will move through the area sunday
evening. temperatures will warm up into the 60s sunday afternoon
ahead of this strong storm system. rain showers will be likely
with the frontal passage late sunday. temperatures will crash
behind the front into the mid 20s to around 30 sunday night.
rain will change over to snow sunday night from west to east.
the system light snow will transition to lake effect snow
showers favoring both the primary and secondary snowbelt monday
through early tuesday. some accumulations are possible. it will
be much colder early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
mixed-bag of mvfr and ifr across the taf sites this morning,
associated with both low ceilings and vsbys from showers and
thunderstorms. main concern over the next several hours will be
monitoring a cluster of intensifying thunderstorms across
southern indiana which could impact all taf sites except tol.
currently have brief tsra tempo groups with gusts up to 35
knots, though if trends continue, peak gusts could be higher in
the 40 to 45-knot range in some spots. otherwise, confidence is
increasing that afternoon thunderstorm redevelopment should be
south and southeast of the area, so have removed any additional
tsra mention. however, could still see low-end mvfr or pockets
of ifr vsbys in moderate to heavier bursts of rain along or
ahead of the cold front later this afternoon and evening.

winds are generally out of the south to southwest this morning,
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. winds will increase
through this morning and afternoon, 15 to 20 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots. winds will abruptly shift towards the west to
northwest behind the cold front this evening, 15 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered rain/snow showers on
friday. gusty west to southwest winds of at least 35 to 40 knots
are expected on friday. non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow
showers saturday night into sunday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories have been issued across lake erie as
south to southwest winds increase ahead of a cold front to 20 to
25 knots this afternoon, then shift towards the west to
northwest behind the front later this evening and overnight, 20
to 25 knots. winds will gradually diminish to 15 knots or less
by thursday afternoon. the next period of concern is on friday
as a potent low pressure system moves east through the great
lakes. confidence is increasing for gale conditions across lake
erie and a watch may be needed in the next couple of forecast
cycles. if gale conditions do develop, the west to southwest
flow would likely necessitate the need for low water advisories
across the western basin of the lake.

the final period of concern is towards the end of the weekend
late sunday into monday as another low pressure system tracks
east through the great lakes, extending a strong cold front
through the area. west winds continue to trend stronger with
this system, with high confidence for at least small craft
conditions to develop across lake erie.

&&

.climate...
daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records march 11th.
here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate sites for
march 11th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt
thursday for lez142>144.
small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
thursday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 am edt wed mar 11 2026

.key messages...

- tonight into early wednesday, the severe threat is decreasing,
but heavy rain and flooding threat continues. the best
chances northern half of the forecast area where a flood watch
remains in effect.

- friday, confidence increasing in the chance for strong winds (45+
mph).

- late saturday into early monday, we`re watching the potential
for a large storm system is likely to bring wintry weather
across the great lakes region, but the exact location is
uncertain. as of now, the most favored track for accumulating
snow is north of the forecast area, across michigan.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 am edt wed mar 11 2026

tonight and wednesday. the main concern is the risk for heavy rain
from multiple rounds of thunderstorms overnight. there is also a risk
for severe weather, but that will be on the decline overnight.
damaging wind is the primary threat, with tornado being a close
second threat. the risk for hail is low.

as we go through the overnight hours, storms should weaken as the
instability decreases and the storms become more linear along an
approaching cold front. this will signal the transition from severe
weather to heavy rain. this front will slowly migrate southeast
across the region on wednesday. so expect showers and thunderstorms
to be widespread wednesday morning, and gradually decrease in
coverage during the afternoon as the front moves through. however,
northwest winds and cold air advection will lead to scattered
showers, especially near the lakeshore, wednesday afternoon and
evening. thermal profiles do cool off, so could see some snow
showers mix in at times, but little to no accumulation is expected.

wednesday night through friday. winds will decrease overnight as
high pressure builds across the region. this will lead to chilly
night, with lows falling into the mid to upper 20s. on thursday,
southwest winds will increase throughout the day ahead of a potent
storm system that will bring chances for rain (50 to 60 percent
north, 10 to 20 percent south) thursday night. however, the
strongest winds will be behind the cold front on friday when
westerly wind gust near 45 mph are possible. did increase the winds
toward the higher end of the forecast guidance, and it appears that
a wind advisory will be needed if things remain on track.

saturday through tuesday... we`re watching the potential for a large
storm system to move across the great lakes this coming weekend and
bring rain to the south, and a band of heavy snow to the north. this
storm is still several days away, so the track will change, but
confidence is at least medium that there will be storm to bring
impactful winter weather to some locations. at this point, the more
likely location for accumulating snow is north of the region, across
michigan. in addition to the potential for winter weather, there
will be thunderstorms in the warm sector of the storm, but that also
depends on the track of the surface low, and we`ll have a better
handle on it as we get closer to the weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 629 am edt wed mar 11 2026

scattered thunderstorms will be the main concern this morning
into this afternoon with severe thunderstorms possible mainly
southeast of the i-69 corridor. low level wind shear will also
be possible for kfwa through 14z or so with veering winds from
southerly to northwesterly winds increasing this morning into
the afternoon with gusts around 30 kts with the slow moving
boundary moving southeastward and exiting the area. mvfr to ifr
cigs will linger through the day with vsbys mainly mvfr but
expecting a period of ifr vsby for ksbn between 18z and 01z thu.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 pm edt
thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
736 am edt wed mar 11 2026

.key messages...

- a flood watch is in effect for southern parts of southeast mi
through early afternoon. additional rounds of showers and storms are
expected through the day and may produce heavy rainfall.

- a winter weather advisory is in effect for the tri cities region
and northern thumb this morning due to freezing rain. ice
accumulations of up to 0.10 inch is expected to result in travel
impacts early this morning.

- accumulating snow is likely friday morning and strong winds in
excess of 40 mph are possible during the day friday.

- another round of accumulating snow and strong winds is
increasingly likely saturday night through sunday.

&&

.aviation...

convectively reinforced surface warm frontal boundary is in place
along the ohio border this morning and has served as a focus for
deeper thunderstorm activity. warm air resides just above the
surface and is contributing to a convectively unstable environment
above 5.0 kft agl. models still support a surface low pressure
center lifting across far southeast michigan this morning in
response to greatest upper level jet forcing. included tempo for
thunderstorms at the southern taf sites through 15z. ifr and lifr
conditions will then hold until a cold front passes through all
of the areas around 17z. winds turn to the northwest 15 to 25 knots
after 17z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through the forecast.

* medium for thunderstorms 12-15z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 417 am edt wed mar 11 2026

discussion...

an earlier line of elevated convection is exiting the area with the
stalled surface front now positioned over northwest ohio. severe
threat through the rest of the early morning is low as the rain-
cooled outflow and northeast wind should hold the surface based
instability south. 40-50 kt wsw flow noted in kdtx vwp data
continues to advect a feed of anomalous moisture into the elevated
frontal slope. pwat analyzed at 1.30" is near the daily max in spc
raob climatology. as the llj passes overhead early this morning,
expect the flare-up of convection over northern in to spread
northeast across the southern forecast area through midday. opted to
issue a flood watch for this area given heavy rainfall already
received, weak elevated instability, and increased likelihood for
training storms as corfidi vector magnitude falls below 10 kt. hi-
res ensemble data offers 50% confidence for areas to receive over 2"
of rain, which is higher than current flash flood guidance. this
suggests higher potential for flooding issues in urban areas and
along small streams. areas left out of the watch are not expected to
see as much additional rainfall from the next round.

automated observations overnight indicated intervals of freezing
rain across the saginaw valley and northern thumb, with dew points
there still holding in the lower 30s. widespread precip is departing
the area but with the additional precip expected later this morning,
will keep the winter weather advisory going. it is possible that
temperatures and dew points rise comfortably above freezing this
morning in which case the advisory may be canceled early.

additional pva lifts ne into the area today ahead of the inbound mid-
level trough that passes overhead late tonight. the surface low over
sw lower is progged to track ne from to near the st. clair river by
18z, with the warm sector briefly spreading up into the metro
detroit vicinity between 15 and 18z. poor lapse rates near moist
adiabatic will limit severe potential but can`t rule out isolated
gusty winds as the llj clips far se mi. as the low tracks through,
backside deformation forcing sustains another round of showers
before drier air arrives from the northwest through the afternoon.
there may be a couple hour window for light wintry mix as
temperatures fall into the 30s from nw to se. impacts are not
anticipated as any precip will be light. cooler conditions in the
20s tonight lead into a seasonable day thursday as upper level
confluence within a rising height field sustains mainly dry
conditions.

the next northern stream wave arrives friday morning, amplifying
upstream with an impressive corridor of height falls and pva
targeting southern lower mi. this kicks off deep layer isentropic
ascent to produce a quick hitting burst of precip overnight into the
friday morning commute - current timing is lined up between about
midnight and 8am. temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s at onset favor
snow initially before warm advection in the low levels brings
potential for a changeover to rain by mid-morning. latest ensemble
guidance supports a general 1 to 3 inch wet snowfall mainly along
and north of i-69, but possibly into the higher terrain along the
glacial ridge as well. areas farther south are more poised for a
dusting.

high confidence exists in a period of strong winds friday afternoon
as the highly dynamic system tracks across the northern great lakes.
an impressive gradient and strong subsidence/cold advection produce
40+ mph winds and may warrant a headline. the next round of higher
impact weather continues to come into focus for the sunday and
monday period. guidance has been consistent on depicting a vigorous
digging wave inducing strong synoptic ascent directly over the great
lakes as it takes on a negative tilt. isentropic ascent ramps up
saturday night to produce a band of snow over lower mi before the
surface low tracks across the area late sunday. depending on its
track, heavy precip and strong wind will be possible.

marine...

widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms continue today as low
pressure tracks along a frontal boundary from southern lake michigan
toward southern lake huron. cyclonic flow around the low transitions
to broader northwest flow tonight that introduces 30+ knot gust
potential as cold advection ramps up, albeit brief duration. active
stretch of weather continues for the latter half of the week, with a
return to wintry conditions. increasing confidence in gale potential
for friday as strong low pressure tracks across the great lakes,
alongside wintry precipitation.

hydrology...

a flood watch is in effect for counties along and south of m-59, as
well as southern st. clair county, through early afternoon.
additional thunderstorms are forecast to track over areas that
received heavy rainfall overnight. there is potential for training
storms and heavy rates of over 1" per hour to lead to flooding
concerns especially within low-lying and urban areas. 50% confidence
exists for localized storm total amounts of over 2". rises on area
rivers are expected across southeast mi over the next few days given
the widespread moderate to heavy rainfall since last evening.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz047>049-
053-054.

flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for miz063-068>070-075-
076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt thursday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt thursday
for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...tf
marine.......mv/tf
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.