Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
965
fxus61 kcle 241809
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
209 pm edt fri jul 24 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) mostly dry conditions expected through saturday with patchy dense
fog possible overnight.

2) a series of troughs will traverse the region beginning on sunday,
bringing multiple rounds of showers and storms to the area through
mid next week. some storms may be strong to severe with the greatest
chance of severe weather on monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure remains dominant over the area, the majority of the
area should remain dry through saturday. the exception to this may
be across counties east of i-77 on saturday as increased moisture
pushes north over an area of weak isentropic lift. any showers that
do develop should remain light and short lived given weak forcing
and the thunder potential remains minimal. highs on saturday will be
a bit warmer, climbing into the low to mid 80s.

during the overnight period tonight and saturday night, patchy fog
is possible especially south of us-30 where low level moisture will
increase under an inversion. confidence in the extent or density
remains low due to some lingering clouds possible tonight. overnight
lows will drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s both nights.

key message 2...
beginning on sunday, the dominant upper level ridge will begin to
sink south across the southern plains which will allow a trough to
dig over great lakes region. this upper level trough in conjunction
with multiple mid-level shortwaves will provide synoptic energy to
support periods of rainfall and thunderstorms through the middle of
next week. initially on sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible especially in the afternoon with the aide of
daytime instability, but overall impacts should remain minimal. the
greatest potential for severe weather will be on monday as a
moistening deep layer ahead of a cold front will push north across
the area as a mid-level shortwave pushes east. increased moisture
coupled with daytime heating should result in adequate instability
across the entire area. in addition, by monday the area will be
situated under the left exit region of the upper level jet, further
enhancing lift and increasing deep layer sheer. these conditions
should result in clusters of thunderstorms developing with some of
them reaching strong to severe thresholds. there remains some
uncertainty in the forecast this far out, especially with how any
sunday night precipitation may impact the forecast on monday. if
showers and clouds linger into monday morning, there will likely be
a diminished threat a bit given reduced instability. will have to
closely monitor the evolution of model guidance over the next few
days to get a better handle on storm potential monday, but for now
spc has issued a day 4 swo with the entire area highlighted in
15%.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours
with some high levels clouds drifting through our skies. there
could be some patchy light fog towards the pre-dawn hours of
saturday morning. we have that potential in tempo groups for
mfd, cak, and yng from 07 through 11z saturday morning with 3sm
to 5sm. otherwise, aviation weather should be fairly quiet.
winds will be east or northeast this afternoon 5 to 10 knots
becoming light and variable overnight.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
overall marine weather conditions will be good on lake erie for
this weekend. northeasterly flow 10 to 15 knots will continue
for this afternoon for the central and 10 knots less for the
rest of the lake. waves will be 1 to 2 feet in the central basin
and a foot or less elsewhere through tonight. winds will be
light and variable 10 knots or less on saturday with ideal
boating conditions. waves around a foot are expected saturday
into tomorrow night. southwest flow returns sunday through
monday around 10 knots. southerly to southwesterly flow will
increase 15 to 20 knots ahead of a cold front by monday night
and tuesday morning. behind the frontal passage tuesday, winds
will shift from the northwest 10 to 20 knots and slightly higher
waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
474
fxus63 kiwx 241748
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
148 pm edt fri jul 24 2026

.key messages...

- gradually warmer over the next several days. hot and humid
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by sunday and monday.

- a couple rounds of rain and storms are possible late sunday
through early tuesday (30-60% chance of showers/storms).
severe weather is possible but low confidence on exact details
at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1045 am edt fri jul 24 2026

a decaying area of showers is noted over far western illinois late
this morning, slowly drifting east, and nws chicago is reporting
sprinkles. progress will be limited, however, due to a stout
dry layer below 18,000 ft courtesy of retreating high pressure
now over northeast pa. i did note that some hrrr runs attempt to
bring light rain to the far southwest forecast area. while
forecast soundings attempt to saturate in the upper- levels, dry
air elsewhere in the profile preclude introducing any showers
to today`s forecast. instead, variable cloudiness today with
high temperatures just a touch warmer than yesterday thanks to
southerly return flow on aformentioned high pressure.

the primary periods of interest continue to be sunday night and
monday night with the risk of severe thunderstorms, and the hot,
humid conditions. a 598dm ridge over the four corners amplifies
by this time, spreading a 50-70 knot 500-mb jet over the great
lakes. this, amid a hot, humid environment yields very large
cape values and bulk shear near 40 knots. these items await a
trigger for convection in the form of an upper-level vorticity
maximum, the incoming upper-level jet, or, more likely,
lingering mcvs or outflow boundaries from prior convection.
these finer details are a bit futile to chase at this distance
and remain to be seen, so, messaging and uncertainty carry on
largely unchanged. given the anticipated storm mode (squall line
or mcs), damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard sunday
night and again monday night.

behind these storm chances, upper-level troughing over the eastern
great lakes nudges the four corners ridge westward giving us a break
from heat and storms. however, there are indications the ridge
builds to the east through the week, renewing our local chance of
storms.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 148 pm edt fri jul 24 2026

vfr conditions are expected through the taf period with no impactful
weather. diurnal cu will gradually dissipate towards sunset leaving
behind widespread high cirrus. winds will remain variable through
the taf period at 5kts or less with a predominately northerly
direction through tonight before becoming southerly tomorrow.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...nws

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
562
fxus63 kdtx 241910
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
310 pm edt fri jul 24 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with near normal temperatures are expected through
saturday.

- heat and humidity build back into the region sunday-monday with
highs around 90 degrees and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

- isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible sunday, with
a more organized strong to severe weather threat looking to arrive
monday.

&&

.discussion...

another pleasant day today as surface high pressure remains centered
over the central great lakes with most areas seeing highs around 80.
skies clear again overnight with the loss of diurnal cu allowing
lows again to fall towards the mid-upper 50s. surface ridge axis
shifts over southern ontario saturday setting up light southwesterly
low level return flow pushing temps back around late july averages
in the mid 80s. this shift also marks the expansion of broad central
conus mid-level ridging into the far western great lakes setting the
stage for a more active close of the weekend locally as a series of
ridge riding shortwaves drop into the region.

first of these waves sweeps across lower mi saturday evening with no
fanfare given the resident dry airmass. its passage however does
begin to fold in a piece of the richer theta-e airmass over the
upper midwest with gradual advection top-down in the column over the
course of saturday night. lower level moisture looks to become
established by early sunday morning, coinciding with the arrival of
the second wave, supporting scattered shower chances, particularly
over the saginaw valley who reside under the left exit region of the
upper midwestern jet streak. a few embedded thunderstorms not out of
the question as several j/kg of elevated instability accompany this
moisture advection. this activity wanes by midday sunday as the wave
reaches lake erie/northern oh leading more importantly to a window
for afternoon destabilization ahead of the next wave reaching the
area in the evening. while se mi is only under the edge of spc`s day
3 marginal currently, this shortwave shouldn`t be discounted with
current mid-range model solutions all advertising an arrival in the
~21-00z timeframe (nam is a touch later towards 03z). favorable
timing within the diurnal window would support mlcape values between
1000-1300 j/kg with bulk shear around 35-40kts. the main potential
limiting factor, seen best in the 12z rrfs, is a more robust morning
convective scenario resulting in stronger trailing
subsidence/capping that any evening convection would need to
overcome first.

some lingering showers/storms are possible to start monday morning
though the main convective chances come late monday as the next wave
reaches the western great lakes. timing window is more muddled as
model solutions range from late monday afternoon (canadian/nam) to
monday night (gfs/ecmwf). that said, this system brings the
strongest kinematics of any in the wave train as a mid-level trough
digs into the upper great lakes. as such, even in the overnight
arrival scenarios, organized severe convection would be in play (all
of se mi is under a spc day 4 15% risk outlook).

&&

.marine...

high pressure remains centered over the central great lakes this
evening maintaining light southerly winds outside of some shoreline
effects towards thunder bay. influence of said high wanes over the
course of saturday as a series of systems are set to drop out of the
upper midwest into the great lakes. first chances for a few
thunderstorms arrive late saturday night-sunday morning though
greater potential for scattered storms, including a strong to
severe storm, is expected sunday night.

the next notable storm system arrives on monday, as low pressure
tracks across the northern great lakes. strong thunderstorms are
possible as the cold front works through the central great lakes
during the evening hours. northerly winds behind this system late
monday night into tuesday have the potential to reach 25 knots over
southern lake huron.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 145 pm edt fri jul 24 2026

aviation...

low impact weather prevails today as high pressure remains well
established across the airspace. the center of the surface high is
currently parked over southeast michigan, but drifting eastward,
which has kept winds rather light and variable. flow should trend
more south-southwesterly with time today. diurnal cumulus has
blossomed with sct-bkn coverage above 5 kft agl. the loss of daytime
heating this evening will cause low clouds to quickly dissipate by
nightfall. some high cirrus debris may stream through aloft tonight,
while winds trend toward calm. vfr cumulus clouds return between 15z
and 16z saturday with winds becoming more uniform and southwesterly
as the high breakdowns over northern ohio.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......sf/kdk
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.