Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 072358
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
658 pm est sun dec 7 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will build east across the region on monday. low
pressure will move into the upper great lakes on tuesday and
weaken followed by a stronger clipper system moving through the
central great lakes on wednesday.

&&

.near term /through monday night/...
a light snow continues across northern portions of the area late
this afternoon as a cold front is pushing south across the region.
temperatures at mid afternoon are near or just above freezing
and road temperatures tend to be a couple degrees warmer. this
will have a limiting effect on accumulations with generally a
half inch or less in northeast ohio with locally up to an inch
and a half for favored upslope areas in nw pennsylvania. much of
this is expected on grassy or untreated elevated surfaces that
may be cooler or anywhere that snow may still be falling just
past sunset. water vapor imagery shows dry air aloft already
spreading west to east across the area as shortwave energy
passes and the snow is really expected to wane between 6-9 pm.

flow behind the cold front will veer to north northeast and clouds
will linger downwind of lake huron across north central ohio,
gradually shifting west with time. high pressure builds overhead
monday with partly cloudy skies and some periods of sun. high
temperatures will be in the upper 20s monday except low to mid
20s in nw pennsylvania where thermal profiles are running a few
degrees cooler. skies start off mostly clear monday evening and
the light winds will allow temperatures to quickly fall with
lows ranging from the single digits in pa to low teens in ohio.

&&

.short term /tuesday through wednesday night/...
as the weekend trough pulls away, a series of shortwave troughs will
move through the northwest flow aloft towards the great lakes
region. the first low pressure system will reach the upper great
lakes on tuesday. a 50+ knot low level jet will overspread the area
on tuesday morning with warm advection increasing. although it may
take some time for the low levels to saturate, some light snow is
expected to develop across northeastern portions of the area. minor
accumulation of a dusting to an inch are possible with
temperatures trending warmer. southwesterly winds will also be
breezy as we attempt to mix into the stronger flow aloft.
inversion heights will likely be 2000 feet or higher and expect
to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph as the warm front lifts north
during the late morning and early afternoon.

chances of precipitation decrease tuesday evening with dry air
aloft and weak ridging at the surface before a stronger clipper
system approaches the area wednesday morning. while some spread
exists between solutions, a 988 mb surface low is forecast to
cross southern lake michigan early wednesday. the surface
pressure gradient tightens and a near 60 knot low level jet
moves overhead, but mixing depths are expected to be very
shallow at 1000 feet or less with 850mb temperatures around 0 c
in the warm sector. windy conditions still expected but wind
gusts may take until the cold front arrives from the northwest
late in the afternoon to really increase. the gfs shows a
compact trough from the surface to 700mb swinging southeast
across the area and wind gusts of 40 mph or higher could
accompany this secondary push of cold air. we will tend to be on
the warm side of this clipper initially with precipitation
arriving as rain or quickly transitioning to rain in the pre-
dawn hours of wednesday. rain will be the primary precipitation
type into early afternoon before starting to mix with or
transition back over to snow on wednesday afternoon.

the upper level trough axis is east of the area by thursday morning
but some differences exist in mid-range models on how quickly the
trough pulls away. this may result in a loss of deep moisture on
wednesday night but in general expect to see lake effect snow
showers develop in a northwest flow regime. it is too far far out to
have a handle on accumulations but light to moderate lake effect
snows are possible as 850mb temperatures fall to -10 to -12c.

&&

.long term /thursday through sunday/...
the long term forecast begins with a broad longwave trough in place
across the eastern united states. another piece of energy dives
south from the arctic, likely bringing the coldest air of the
season. temperatures at 850mb look to fall to around -18c west of
the great lakes and possibly maintaining temperatures near that cold
across lake erie. while differences in model spread exist, all long
range models have a very cold airmass overhead next weekend with
good potential for lake effect snows in the northwesterly flow.
how quickly the trough pulls away will impact how much snow is
possible in the primary and secondary snowbelt next weekend and
could see some lighter snow amounts area wide with the cold
front. there is high confidence in below normal temperatures
through next weekend and may remain below 30 degrees through the
entire long term forecast. by sunday, some areas may not even
reach 20 degrees.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
light snow has mostly exited the area, leaving behind a stratus
deck in the 1,000-3,000 ft range. patchy mist/freezing rain has
left a few areas of non-vfr visibilities as well. dry air
intruding from the north should allow for conditions to continue
improving, with mostly vfr conditions expected areawide by late
tonight. some lake effect clouds with mvfr ceilings could
briefly impact kcle, kmfd, and kfdy monday morning. vfr expected
areawide thereafter.

north winds of 7-13 knots continue through early tonight, with
some 20 kt gusts near the lake. winds gradually shift more
east-northeast at 5-10kt on monday, with light and variable
winds monday night.

outlook...non-vfr is expected again with snow on tuesday which
will gradually transition to rain by wednesday morning. rain
will transition back over to snow wednesday evening through
thursday. gusty winds are likely tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.marine...
light northwest winds this afternoon will quickly shift northerly
and increase to 15-25 knots this evening, then gradually shift more
east-northeasterly through tonight and into monday. winds will
remain elevated at 15-20kt through tonight before decreasing more on
monday, falling below 15kt across the entire lake by late morning.
waves will increase to 2-5 feet this evening and persist through
early monday before subsiding to 1-3 feet by late monday morning.
small craft advisories remain as posted east of the islands for this
evening and tonight, expiring at 7 am monday east of geneva-on-the-
lake and at 10 am to the west. sustained winds may briefly reach
20kt in the western basin this evening, though the duration of any
advisory-level conditions is expected to be too brief to expand the
advisory west of the islands. winds will continue gradually veering
to an east and then southeast direction at <15kt through monday.

rough marine conditions are expected late monday night through
wednesday night. an initial weaker low pressure will track through
the northern great lakes on tuesday, lifting a warm front across
lake erie. winds will shift south-southeast to south-southwest and
increase to 15-25kt late monday night into early tuesday as the warm
front crosses the lake. south-southwest winds will peak at 25-35kt
during the day tuesday, with 30-60% confidence in marginally
reaching gale-force winds across the central and eastern portions of
the lake. there is some question on how well the very strong winds
aloft will mix down in a warm advection (upglide) regime on tuesday,
which leads to the medium confidence in reaching a gale. winds
remain south-southwest and lull slightly (to 20-30kt) tuesday
evening/night. stronger low pressure tracks through the central
great lakes late tuesday night through wednesday, pushing a cold
front across the lake wednesday afternoon. southwest winds increase
to 30-40kt ahead of the front late tuesday night into wednesday,
before shifting northwest at 25-35kt late wednesday and gradually
subsiding wednesday night as low pressure exits. confidence in gales
on wednesday is higher given the involvement of a cold front,
stronger winds aloft, and generally stronger low pressure...at 20-
40% in the western basin and 50-80%+ across the central and eastern
basin. a low water advisory will be needed tuesday into wednesday
for the western basin as we get closer. gale watches will be issued
within the next couple of forecast cycles for at least the central
and eastern basins...given somewhat lower confidence in reaching
gales on tuesday and a brief lull tuesday evening held off on
starting gale headlines for now, though they are coming.

after a brief period of quieter conditions thursday into early
friday, another period of stronger west-northwest winds is likely
friday or saturday behind a strong cold front which will usher in
arctic air for the weekend. more headlines will be needed...

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lez144>147.
small craft advisory until 7 am est monday for lez148-149.

&&

$$

synopsis...10
near term...10
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...saunders
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 072327
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
627 pm est sun dec 7 2025

.key messages...

- cold wind chills tonight and monday night, -10f to +5f.

- warmer temperatures with periods of snow and a rain mix
tuesday and wednesday.

- turning very cold again late this week with highs in the
teens.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 228 pm est sun dec 7 2025

in the wake of the clipper type system that had brought the
burst of snowfall earlier today and continues to move
eastward another shot of arctic air will spill southward into
the area tonight. some light flurries/snow showers may accompany
initially the cold airmass as it pushes southward across the cwa.
low temperatures tonight will drop down into the single digits
and wind chill readings will drop below zero ranging from about
-5 to -10 degrees. as we have said in previous discussions one
should dress properly for the cold as exposed skin could become
frost bitten in a very short time. also, don`t forget the pets
or livestock and protect them.

this cold air remains through monday with highs only in the
lower to mid 20s and overnight into tuesday morning lows will be
slightly warmer than monday morning with lows right around 10
degrees with wind chills near zero. however, warm air advection
ahead of another shortwave moving southeastward in the
northwesterly flow aloft will help to moderate temperatures
fairly quickly on tuesday with highs getting into the mid to
upper 30s. will have to see if temperatures may be a bit dulled
by the snowy ground cover. also will be keeping an eye to see
if we get a bit of advection fog especially during the overnight
periods tuesday through wednesday. this disturbance will also
bring periods of increased chances of rain/snow mix. there will
be periods where it could switch over to mainly rain showers.
the other potential here would be some freezing rain due to the
very cold surfaces from the recent deep freeze.

thursday a deeper trough pushes south out of canada and we will
see yet another punch of arctic air into the weekend. thursday
highs will drop back into the mid 20s and low temperatures by
friday morning back into the low teens across the area. friday`s highs
slightly colder with values only getting into the lower 20s.
but becoming even colder by the weekend with single digit lows
for both saturday and sunday morning. highs on saturday and
sunday will only reach the mid teens.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 622 pm est sun dec 7 2025

clearing line working south out of mi and likely to arrive at
both sites over the next couple of hours. opted to have
predominate vfr conditions and a tempo for a few hours to handle
this. once the clearing arrives, no major flight conditions
anticipated through the remainder of the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 072333
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
633 pm est sun dec 7 2025

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures continue this week, with the coldest air
expected monday morning when wind chills drop to or below zero.

- active weather pattern returns tuesday with additional
opportunities for accumulating snow, and even some rain by wednesday
morning.

- abnormally cold conditions settle back in by thursday with lake
effect snow chances through the end of the week.

&&

.aviation...

subtle cold air advection in the 1.5 to 4.0 kft agl layer has been
good enough to steepen lapse rates and generate some inconsequential
flurries from kptk southward. dry air advection will trail this by
an hour or so and will end any snowflakes. system relative
isentropic analysis supports highly efficient, very deep descent
tonight. forecast question is timing of scattering stratus and
clearing. daytime heating is expected to result in some boundary
layer cloud during the morning hours monday with cloud then lifting
for the afternoon. low confidence exists late monday afternoon with
the amount of transparency to mid to high cloud pushing in from the
northwest.

for dtw...flurries possible for an hour or two before clearing trend
pushes in from the north. mvfr cloud possible late monday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight. moderate monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 323 pm est sun dec 7 2025

discussion...

synoptic snowfall has ended across se mi this afternoon as the ohio
valley shortwave is supplanted by a new surface low developing
across the eastern great lakes. in its wake, north-northwest winds
draw in a renewed push of arctic air into the region and initiating
lake effect snow showers. while some of these flurries/light snow
showers push into se mi, increasingly dry airmass as well as
increasing subsidence limits infiltration this far removed from the
lake source. as such, the most of se mi will see dry conditions and
gradually clearing skies through the evening into early tonight. only
potential exception is the far eastern thumb who will reside on the
fringe of any lake effect bands over southern lake huron tonight.
combination of the ongoing cold advection and scattering cloud
promotes a very cold night with areas outside of the lakeshores and
metro detroit (who stay in the teens) falling into the single digits.
morning wind chills hover in the lower single digits with periods
dropping subzero even with the lighter winds under the high.

arctic high pressure is fully established for monday bringing a
brief reprieve in the active pattern though not wrt the much below
average temperatures. with the ridge axis not crossing the state
until monday night, thermal recovery is minimal as daytime highs
monday only top out in the mid 20s and monday night lows falling to
lower teens-upper single digits.

a baroclinic zone is set to linger over lower mi through next week
following the departure of high pressure late monday allowing a
series of clippers to track near or over the region almost everyday
into next weekend. first of these arrives tuesday morning with model
trends favoring a more southerly track over northern lower mi which
brings associated precip further south offering chances for all of
se mi. shift south also puts parent vort max over southern lower mi
resulting in stronger ascent and a higher potential snowfall rates
(towards 0.3"/hr). fast moving nature of this wave is the main
limiting factor however with this period of enhanced ascent/rates
only occuring over a specific location for 2-3hrs. should current
trends hold, end result would be another 1-2" type snowfall across
most of se mi, save for the southern third. is worth noting, a brief
transition to freezing drizzle at the tail-end of precip late
tuesday morning is possible with forecast soundings advertising rapid
mid-level drying de-saturating the dgz and reducing overall ice
nuclei for the still saturated low levels and sub-freezing surface
layer. given the prior snowfall, light qpf (by that point), and
afternoon temps climbing to around/just over freezing, impacts should
be minimal.

a stronger, more dynamic shortwave is then progged to sweep out of
the northern plains and directly over southern mi wednesday. this
current track allows a degree of milder air to be partially advected
into lower mi which would support initial lead snow tuesday night to
transition to rain-snow mix (northern areas) or all rain (southern
areas) by wednesday morning. finer detail on potential snow totals
will depend on the strength of lead ascent tuesday night, speed at
which the warm front lifts north, and exact track of the low center
determining the northward extent of warmer air/mixed precip, all of
which are too sensitive to be able to speak with certainty on this
far out.

marine...

cold air rushing into the central great lakes this evening, with the
deepest and coldest air over northern lake huron, with 850 mb temps
aob -16 c. good mixing depths will lead to wind gusts 20-30 knots
over much of lake huron before the strong surface high over the
midwest builds east tonight, reaching the region monday morning.
winds veer around to the north tonight will lead to large waves (>4
feet) building over the south lake huron basin, and small craft
advisories will continue through 10 am monday morning.

still looking at brief southwest gales possible on tuesday as low
pressure tracks through the northern great lakes. the strongest
winds looking to be over saginaw bay/central lake huron. snow will
likely cause some precip drag, which should help limit the magnitude
and duration of any gales that develop.

a larger and stronger low pressure system is then on track to move
through lower michigan tuesday night into wednesday producing
widespread snow and even rain over lake
st. clair and lake erie. the southwest low level jet ahead of the
looks to be very strong, and low level profiles do not appear to
warm quick enough to stabilize the near water surface. thus, it is
looking like increasing chance of gales of western lake erie, with
potential to briefly reach aoa 40 knots.

rush of cold air behind the passage of the low will then support
strong northwest winds late wednesday and wednesday evening.
isolated, brief gusts to gales will be possible,
but the pressure gradient quickly relaxes by thursday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kdk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.