Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1255 pm est sun dec 7 2025

.synopsis...
a weak clipper system will move across the region today pushing
a cold front through the area this evening. high pressure will
build into the region late tonight and monday. a stronger
clipper and low pressure system will move through the great
lakes on wednesday.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
the main weather message...
-light snow accumulations up to 1 inch are possible today,
primarily north of highway 30.
-minor travel impacts maybe possible today into this evening.
-a few lake-enhanced snow showers may linger this evening across
the snowbelt.

a weak clipper system is currently over the cornbelt of the
midwest and tracking in our direction for later today. while it
may appear a little more ominous on the regional radars this
morning, this system will slowly weaken as it tracks over our
area today. ahead of the approaching system, there is a light
southerly flow this morning. there is also a shallow layer of
moisture below 850 mb this morning. this shallow moisture layer is
associated with low stratus deck over the region and some
patchy fog over central and western ohio this morning. there is
limited potential for some patchy light freezing drizzle or
mist this morning before the light snow arrives. but do to low
confidence, we have left it out of the forecast at this time.

upper level support and moisture with this clipper coming
through today will be limited. forecast model guidance is
showing possibly up to a tenth of an inch of qpf over our area
today. given that this system will move through during the day
with temperatures near or just slightly below freezing, a
dusting to around 1 inch of snowfall may be possible. the better
chance for light accumulations will be primarily north of
highway 30 today.

as this weak low pressure system moves through the eastern great
lakes late today, it will push a cold front through as well.
winds will become northwesterly 10 to 15 mph by this evening.
a push of colder air will also follow behind the cold frontal
passage this evening with 850 mb falling down to around -14c.
there may be a few lake enhanced snow showers lingering around
into this evening for the snowbelt region. another 1 inch of
light snowfall may be possible for the primary snowbelt through
this evening. high temperatures today will be in the lower to
middle 30s today before the cold front arrives.

high pressure will build over the region late tonight into
monday. overnight low temperatures will drop back down into the
teens with a few single digits possible where skies clear out.
monday will be a quiet weather day with a mix of clouds and
peaks of sun. it will be cold monday with high temperatures only
in the middle to upper 20s.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday night/...
high pressure will exit the region towards the new england coast
on tuesday. another fast moving clipper and low pressure system
will track through the upper great lakes on tuesday. there will
be an increase in cloud cover and gusty southerly to
southwesterly winds on tuesday. southwest winds will be 15 to 25
mph with gusts up to 35 mph. another round of light precip will
arrive with the tuesday clipper system, starting as light snow
but mixing with or changing to light rain later in the day as
milder air pushes in from the southwest. the better chance for
precip on tuesday will be further north near the lakeshore and
areas of neoh and nwpa. some minor light snowfall up to 1 inch
may be possible on tuesday before the precip changes over to
rain by tuesday evening and night. high temperatures tuesday
will climb above freezing into the middle and upper 30s.

the parade of clipper systems continues for wednesday with a
stronger low pressure system that track through the great lakes
region. we will be on the milder side initially for the
wednesday clipper. gusty southwesterly winds will continue on
wednesday 15 to 25 mph, gusts up to 40 mph. rain showers will be
likely on wednesday with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower
40s during the day. another cold front will move late wednesday
with another shot of colder air. rain will change back to light
snow showers wednesday evening. colder air aloft will spill
over lake erie with a flare up lake enhanced and or lake effect
snow showers wednesday night for the snowbelt. some minor
accumulations will be possible.

&&

.long term /thursday through saturday/...
the long range model guidance show a very unsettled, wintry and
cold weather pattern for the end of the week into next weekend.
a large and deep upper level trough will continue it`s grip
over the great lakes region and much of the eastern conus. the
parade of fast moving clippers and reinforcing shots of cold air
will be the main weather theme through next weekend. another
clipper may move through late thursday through early friday and
another one over the weekend. light snowfall accumulations will
be possible for all of northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania
associated with the system snow. a deeper cyclonic flow under
the upper level trough may develop over the great lakes region
friday through next weekend and bring a decent setup of lake
effect snow for both the primary and secondary snowbelt. stay
tuned!

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
a band of light snow is impacting northwest ohio and points
east-northeast near lake erie and into northwest pa as of 18z.
due to small flake size, this otherwise very light snow is
effectively reducing vsby to ifr, with low mvfr to ifr ceilings
also observed under the snow. conditions are in a higher mvfr to
vfr range farther southeast at mfd, cak, and yng where it is
not yet snowing, and quickly improve to mvfr and eventually vfr
behind the back edge of the snow in mi. expect a period of lower
vsby (likely ifr) and ceilings (ifr to low mvfr) to sweep east-
southeast across cle, cak, and yng over the next few hours.
meanwhile, expect tol and fdy to begin improving over the next
few hours, with improvement continuing to the southeast after 0z
as the snow dissipates/exits. am expecting limited lake effect
snow to flow south-southwest off of lake erie through early
monday, probably just some flurries but could locally maintain
some mvfr ceilings. all will continue improving to vfr on monday
as lingering lake effect clouds dissipate as high pressure
briefly builds in.

light winds this afternoon will increase out of the north at
7-13 knots this evening, with some 20kt gusts near the lake.
winds gradually shift more east-northeast at 5-10kt overnight
tonight into monday.

outlook...non-vfr is expected again with snow on tuesday which
will gradually transition to rain by wednesday morning. rain
will transition back over to snow wednesday evening through
thursday. gusty winds are likely tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.marine...
weak low pressure will move through the region today, eventually
passing to new england by tonight. as this system powers through,
onshore flow will increase to 15 to 20 kts and allow for waves to
build to the 4 to 5 ft range. therefore, will go with a small craft
advisory for tonight into monday morning. there will be a very brief
reprieve in winds on monday with high pressure entering the region.
once this feature pushes east on monday night, strong offshore flow
will begin to develop as a low pressure system enters the great
lakes for tuesday. this tuesday system has remained persistent in
being a quick-hitting low through the region with a 50 kt low level
jet moving over the lake during the daytime hours. this should
likely translate to gale force winds at the surface and have
southwest winds up to 40 kts. for wednesday, a stronger low pressure
system will enter the region and the stronger surface pressure
gradient and a 60 kt low level jet over the lake will allow for gale
force winds to continue with the potential for 40 to 45 kt sustained
winds on the lake. waves during this period may reach 15 ft or more
with this setup. with the strong southwest flow, low water levels in
the western basin of lake erie will be a concern and low water
advisories will likely be needed. the low and associated cold front
will east of the area on wednesday night and winds will shift to
onshore and weaken. elevated waves should continue into thursday and
marine headlines would persist to at least thursday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lez144>147.
small craft advisory until 3 am est monday for lez148-149.

&&

$$

synopsis...77
near term...77
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1202 pm est sun dec 7 2025

.key messages...

- snow will continue to diminish early this afternoon with
little to no additional accumulation.

- cold wind chills tonight and monday night, -15f to +5f.

- snow and rain mix tuesday and wednesday.

- turning very cold late this week with highs in the teens.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 421 am est sun dec 7 2025

snow was just reaching the area west of highway 31 early this
morning at 4 am est. upstream visibilities were generally 3/4sm
to 2sm with locally 1/4sm +sn over the northern 1/3rd of il.
given the latest surface observations, indot data, radar
indications, observed snowfall amounts upstream, model forecast
and the latest trends, made a couple of generally minor updates
to the forecast including slightly higher snowfall amounts and a
slightly more northern track. the heaviest snow amounts will
fall north of highway 30 and west of highway 31. northern
laporte is expected to receive around 4 inches of snow. lighter
amounts are expected east and south of this area. have handled
this system with a special weather statement.

otherwise, much colder air will spread back into the area behind
the snow. winds should remain under 10 mph through monday with
wind chills falling below zero tonight and around zero monday
night. temperatures should recover above freezing tuesday and
wednesday before another surge of cold air brings wind chills as
low as -15f friday and saturday nights . chances for light snow
will continue through the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1202 pm est sun dec 7 2025

light snow and predominately ifr conditions will taper off
shortly after issuance at kfwa, though ifr to mvfr cigs should
linger through the remainder of the afternoon before drier air
advects in behind this morning`s clipper system. snow has
generally ended at ksbn with gradual improvement into mvfr/vfr
this afternoon. vfr/dry otherwise tonight into tomorrow morning
with light winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1149 am est sun dec 7 2025

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures continue this week, with the coldest air
expected monday morning when wind chills drop to or below zero.

- active weather pattern returns tuesday with additional
opportunities for accumulating snow, and even some rain (tuesday
night).

- abnormally cold conditions settle back in by thursday with lake
effect snow chances through the end of the week.

&&

.aviation...

the region of light snow will exit southeast of the area by 18z.
colder and drier air will then advect across se mi during the
afternoon within nnw winds of 8 to 15 knots. model guidance suggests
some lingering and/or redevelopment of mvfr strato cu in the wake of
the region of light snow due to some remnant moisture under the low
level inversion. as cold air deepens during the afternoon/evening,
lifting inversion heights will trend ceilings to vfr. north flow and
continued low level cold and dry air advection is likely to support
partial to full clearing this evening into the overnight.

for dtw...ongoing radar trends are showing a rapid degrease in snow
coverage and intensity. nothing more than a few flurries is expected
after 18z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today. low tonight. moderate
monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 359 am est sun dec 7 2025

discussion...

initial wave of light snow along preceding isentropic upsloping is
starting to work in from the west early this morning. the adjacent
low pressure system and inverted trough axis should hold well to the
southwest, over northern indiana, and track east across the ohio
valley. this setup will lead to minor accumulations by midday.
snowfall rates are not expected to be overly impressive given
deficiencies in column saturation (lack of sustained supersaturation
wrt ice through the dgz) and weak dynamic ascent (gradual height
falls). still, isolated areas of brief moderate snowfall rates,
capable of up to a third of an inch per hour cannot be ruled out,
particularly between 10z and 14z this morning. depth of the
marginally saturated dgz per forecast soundings (roughly 6-10 kft
agl) suggests sufficient nucleation and hydrometeor growth aloft to
broadly produce slrs above climatological averages, likely into the
13:1 to 15:1 range.

model spread in qpf has decreased significantly as the event horizon
approaches. deterministic and ensemble agreement is shown for most
areas receiving 0.05-0.15 inches of swe. the nssl/gsl cams were much
more bullish (up to a half inch of liquid) have fallen into line.
nbm (v4.3) 50th percentile has shown a decrease from most prior runs
over the last 24 hours, now in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range by 00z this
evening (90th percentile shows a range of 2 to 4 inches). the higher
totals are mainly expected for the western portion of cwa
(along/west of us-23), but portions of the thumb could approach 2
inches once the reinforcing shot of cold air (upon a shift to nw
flow) arrives later in the day. period of shore-parallel winds poses
the best chance for additional accumulations along the southern
huron coastline. decreasing cloud cover and stronger anticyclonic
flow from 1032 mb high pressure moving into the upper midwest leads
to a chilly night. lows in the mid single digits to lower teens
(metro detroit), modified (warmer) by mild over-lake water
temperatures (superior/michigan).

the arctic airmass combined with the last bit of gradient flow will
cause early morning wind chills to approach 0f, possibly slightly
below for areas west (clouds cleared out sooner). the lower
tropospheric ridge passes over lower michigan on monday leading to
subsidence, but mid and upper clouds will be present as shortwave
troughing aloft passes overhead. highs will be capped in the 20s for
most areas, some 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals.

active pattern returns midweek with the next quick-hitting system
arriving late monday night. model progs reveal a negatively tilted
compact speed-max rolling into the upper midwest along a western
conus longwave ridge. this vortmax digs into the state amidst
reorientation of the sub-700 mb height field, southwesterly. this
helps advect a plume of moisture into southern lower heading into
tuesday morning. precipitation type concerns have decreased given a
cold onset, therefore snow is favored, even while temperatures lift
above freezing tuesday afternoon. most of the snowfall should occur
during the morning hours with the better accumulation potential
further north, closer to the surface reflection. latest guidance has
a gradient of over an inch north of m-46 to perhaps a coating south
of i-94 where temperatures have a higher chance of lifting several
degrees above freezing by tuesday afternoon.

the next pacific wave arrives in quick succession tuesday night into
wednesday with a warmer airmass. temperatures could hold steady near
the freezing mark overnight as the next round of precipitation gets
underway. latest sounding data shows higher confidence in snow at
onset, switching over to primarily rain late tuesday night into
wednesday morning once mid-level dry air strips out dgz layer
moisture during ensuing zonal flow. while most of the lower column
will be saturated and sub-freezing, a lack of ice nuclei will be the
main factor in the nocturnal change-over. the surface low pivots
across northern lower wednesday morning with a trailing cold front
which results in winds veering northwesterly. some lake effect snow
is possible wednesday night.

colder post-frontal airmass and occasionally favorable trajectories
maintain lake effect snow chances through the end of the workweek.
the next release of arctic air is set to arrive friday night into
saturday, marked by 850 mb temperatures in the minus teens (celsius).

marine...

light winds around this morning as a ridge of high pressure has
arrived over the central great lakes. weakening low pressure
tracking through the ohio valley will bring widespread light snow
this morning, trending toward more localized snow squalls over lake
huron late in the day as 850 mb temps lower into the negative mid
teens. northwest winds gusting between 25-30 knots appear likely
late in the day. however, winds then look to veer to the north-
northeast fairly quickly and weaken sunday night as high pressure
quickly builds in for monday morning. none-the-less, large waves of
6+ feet will build over the southern lake huron. some of these
larger waves will clip the nearshore waters of lake huron as winds
veer around, and small craft advisories are in effect late this
afternoon into into monday morning for outer saginaw bay and the
nearshore waters of lake huron from port austin to port huron.

brief southwest gales possible on tuesday as low pressure tracks
through the northern great lakes. a larger and stronger low pressure
system is then on track to move through lower michigan tuesday night
into wednesday producing widespread snow and even changing
precipitation to rain over lake st. clair and lake erie. rush of
cold air behind the passage of the low will support strong northwest
winds late wednesday and wednesday evening. isolated, brief gusts to
gales will be possible, but the pressure gradient quickly relaxes by
thursday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 10 am est monday
for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.