Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
641 pm est mon feb 23 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast, with generally
an additional 1 to 4 inches of snow expected through tonight.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake enhanced snow will continue through tonight across the
snowbelt, with the greatest travel impacts expected generally
south of the i-90 corridor. single digit wind chills will
briefly return tonight into tuesday morning.

2) a clipper system will bring another round of snow across the
region tuesday night into wednesday, with the highest amounts
found across northwest pennsylvania.

3) another low pressure system will move east through the ohio
valley on thursday which could bring another round of snow
across the area, though confidence in the track remains
uncertain.

4) a brief warm-up is expected by friday and saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
lake enhanced snow, moderate to heavy at times, continues across
the snowbelt this afternoon, aided by mid-level synoptic
moisture stemming from the nor`easter off of new england. the
latest alpw imagery suggests the low and mid-level moisture
support will gradually weaken through this evening as an upper-
level ridge begins to build east into the great lakes. the most
persistent lake enhanced snow continues to be found generally
south of the i-90 corridor, in the favored inland upslope areas
aided by north to northwest boundary layer flow. travel impacts
remain fairly isolated this afternoon given the high late
february sun angle, though conditions may briefly deteriorate
later this evening after sunset, particularly across far
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. additional snowfall
amounts through tonight will range between 1 and 4 inches.

mainly single digit wind chills will return across the area
tonight into tuesday morning, with perhaps some isolated sub-
zero values found across northwest pennsylvania.


key message 2...
a clipper system will sweep southeast through the great lakes
tuesday night into wednesday, bringing a brief period of snow
across the area. the highest snow totals are expected across
northwest pennsylvania, most likely ranging between 2 to 4
inches. elsewhere, marginal surface temperatures and lower
confidence in precipitation coverage will likely result in an
inch or less of snow. by wednesday afternoon, temperatures will
climb into the upper 30s to perhaps lower 40s near the us-30
corridor as the clipper system briefly lifts a warm front north
through the area. however, temperatures will quickly fall back
into the 20s or perhaps upper teens wednesday night as a cold
front moves east through the area.


key message 3...
a low pressure system will move east through the ohio valley on
thursday, with medium to high confidence on the dominant precipitation
type being snow. however, there remains uncertainty on the track
and northern extent of precipitation coverage, evident by low
probabilities (10 to 30%) for the area to receive at least 2
inches of snow. this system will continue to be monitored over
the next couple of days, though the overall trend appears to be
a southward shift in the low track.


key message 4...
a split flow upper-level regime will persist across the central
and eastern conus towards the end of the week into the weekend.
surface high pressure in place across the ohio valley will lead
to mostly sunny skies with slightly above average temperatures
in the 40s on friday to the upper 40s and lower 50s by
saturday. temperatures will drop back below average into the 30s
behind a cold front on sunday.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions across northwest ohio terminals as a ridge of
high pressure builds across the area. elsewhere, primarily mvfr
ceilings with patchy ifr visibilities in areas of light to
moderate lake enhanced snow. expect for ifr reductions to
diminish over the next hour or so across northeast ohio
terminals as snow exits from west to east. as the snow
diminishes tonight, lingering mvfr ceilings are expected through
early tuesday afternoon. ceilings will begin to lift to vfr
around 16z/tue.

northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots will
diminish to 8-12 knots sustained late tonight. winds shift
southwesterly by tuesday morning and will increase to 10-15
knots with gusts 20-30 knots possible by late tuesday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr in snow and low clouds expected tuesday night
into early wednesday morning. non-vfr may return again on
thursday as another system moves through the region.

&&

.marine...
windy northwest flow as a result of a lingering surface trough
will continue to break up the fast ice that had developed,
leaving some open water areas across lake erie. these northwest
winds of 20-25 knots today will gradually weaken to 10-15 knots
tonight before a ridge builds over the area and winds shift to
southwesterly on tuesday. winds will once again strengthen
across the lake to 20-25 knots, tuesday afternoon into wednesday
morning before a cold front pushes east wednesday morning,
shifting these gusty winds to more westerly. calmer marine
conditions will arrive wednesday night with west winds of 10-15
knots expected which will persist into friday.

while much of the lake does remain ice covered and small craft
advisories remain suspended, waves in ice free areas may build
to 3-6 feet during the strongest periods of wind. in addition,
with every wind shift will come additional movement of ice which
may close current shipping lanes or result in ice breaking off
of the shoreline.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz009-
019.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est tuesday for ohz010>014-
020-021-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 am est tuesday for paz001-003.
winter storm warning until 7 am est tuesday for paz002.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...13
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 240011
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
711 pm est mon feb 23 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers will continue to diminish into early evening.
additional snow accumulations are expected to be an inch or
less.

- windy conditions will develop tuesday with some drifting snow
possible across open and rural areas.

- a fast moving system may bring a dusting of snow accumulation
tuesday night.

- snow chances return for late wednesday night into thursday.
some snow accumulation is possible, especially along and
south of us route 24. confidence in the northward extent of
snow accumulation is low at this time however.

- moderating temperatures for late work week, but turning colder
for the weekend with some additional chances of snow.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 338 pm est mon feb 23 2026

strong mid level subsidence has overspread the southern great lakes
this afternoon as short wave ridging builds across the western great
lakes. upper portions of the dgz continue to dry out this afternoon
under the influence of this strong subsidence, and this drying in
snow production layer should continue to lead to downward trend in
lake effect snow shower intensity through the remainder of the
afternoon. the winter weather advisory will be allowed to expire at
21z this afternoon, although some lingering snow showers and patchy
drifting snow will be possible through early evening.

a highly progressive pattern will characterize the remainder of the
work week. a low level anticyclone will shift east across the area
this evening with return southerly flow setting up quickly for
tuesday. low temperatures tonight will be somewhat tricky as
lake effect clouds could linger and eventually will be replaced
with higher level cloud cover. coldest mins should be across the
northeast where some clearing is expected this evening, while
remainder of the area may stay up in upper teens to around 20.

temps should moderate back close to normal for tuesday via
strong warm advection. forecast soundings depict a good chance
of mixing down some 30 knot 925 mb flow by the afternoon. with
recent snowfall across the region, some concern of some patchy
blowing and drifting snow with winds of this magnitude. the
warmer temps tuesday could alleviate this issue somewhat, and
limit the potential to drifting snow concerns for rural, open
areas.

another fast moving system will reach the southern great lakes by
tuesday evening. strong isentropic upglide will precede this short
wave for tuesday afternoon/early evening, but much of this initial
lift may be spent on saturation processes. it does appear a narrow
window of measurable precip potential is possible tuesday
evening into the early overnight as the upper wave approaches
and begins to interact with low level front for some brief,
deeper moisture profiles. upward adjustments to pops are
possible for portion of far ne in/nw ohio with this system, but
precip cut-off may be quite sharp given synoptic setup. given
short duration of deep moisture, any precip could end as a
period of some drizzle later tuesday night.

the next system to watch will be a second short wave emanating from
eastern pacific cut-off upper low. guidance has had a difficult time
with run to run continuity with the northward extent and
amplitude of this short wave. the overall trend past few model
cycles has been for more suppressed sfc reflection. the previous
short wave passage early wednesday should lay out a strong
baroclinic zone across the region, and given pre-existing strong
baroclinicity, it would not take much isentropic ascent over
this boundary to at least generate some light snow across at
least southern portions of the forecast area. high chance-low
likely pops still seem in order for southern areas with this
system, with a potential of a few inches of snow if a slightly
more northern track verifies.

not much change made to the extended forecast this cycle, with
continued high confidence in warming trend thu/fri, followed by
another cold front intrusion for the weekend with return of near
normal temperatures. given longwave eastern pacific ridging likely
being maintained into the weekend, and a favorable orientation to
stronger downstream baroclinic zone across central conus,
additional chances of snow will be maintained toward end of the
period.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 630 pm est mon feb 23 2026

a long fetch across lake superior and lake michigan was helping
clouds to develop and light snow to move inland. at the beginning
of the taf, light snow was still occurring at fwa. very strong
warm and dry air advection above the boundary will help scatter
out the lower clouds and end any remaining snow. winds will
decouple and become light early this evening; however, winds
will increase from the south early tuesday ahead of the next
trof and cold front. the cold front will still be northwest of
sbn at the end of the taf period. winds will become rather
strong during the day tuesday as the surface pressure gradient
tightens. wind gusts by early afternoon should be close to 30
knots. desi (dynamic ensemble scenarios) supports (>60%) wind
gusts between 25 and 35 mph.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 240009
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
709 pm est mon feb 23 2026

.key messages...

- colder conditions today and tonight. minimum wind chill
early tuesday morning ranging from 0 to 5 degrees.

- accumulating snow late tuesday through wednesday morning. snow
totals ranging from one half to 2 inches, with highest amounts
across the saginaw valley and northern thumb.

- seasonable temperatures through the midweek period.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure will slide across the region today continuing to scour
out any remaining stratocu this evening. gusty northwest winds will
slowly back to the southwest by morning as the high passes. we could
see some enhance cloud cover in the morning as the lake mi stratus
gets pushed east across the state, but low confidence in how it
holds together so will monitor at this point. quiet otherwise until
the clipper diving southeast across northern great lakes brings
enhanced cloud cover and a few hours of snow tuesday evening toward
the end of the taf period.

for dtw...none.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 259 pm est mon feb 23 2026

discussion...

subtle backing of low-level winds to the northwest will retain cold
air across michigan with 850 temperatures down to -15c. this will
bring cold overnight temperatures with lows in the single digits
across the thumb and low teens elsewhere. there is a low possibility
for development of a snow band just offshore to briefly glance the
tip of the thumb in huron county as these winds back, which may
amount to light accumulations before continued backing pushes any
banding features back offshore.

dry conditions for the bulk of the day as highs return to normal
values in the 30s. attention will turn to a clipper system that will
enter se mi tomorrow night. initially, some light returns will be
possible late tomorrow night favored across the tri-cities and
northern thumb along an elevated warm front as subtle isentropic
ascent turns more favorable. continued progression of the clipper
system will then drive a cold front across se mi through early
wednesday morning, which will result in the better snow accumulation
potential. the main forcing will be found along the elevated frontal
boundary with most intense lift between 800-400 mb with enhancement
from the associated mid-level wave. this system will be quick
hitting from northwest to southeast between roughly 23z to 06z wed,
limiting snow accumulation potential to around an inch or less. there
may be a brief 30-60 min of enhanced snowfall rates, given mesoscale
banding aligned along the elevated front. this can account for a
very quick half-inch to inch of snow accumulation, outside of the
broader ascent/lighter snowfall.

a lull in snowfall is expected in the wake of the clipper system,
however, the lagged surface caa will increase through the morning
hours as a secondary mid-level wave traverses over se mi. lake
enhanced moisture will move inland given large land/lake delta t
while overland thermodynamics turn more favorable noting uptick in
surface cape and negative 0-2km theta-e lapse rates. this will bring
snow shower potential with the possibility for embedded heavier snow
showers or convective snow squalls, most favorable m59 north. an
additional half-inch to an inch of new accumulation will be possible
under any heavier snow showers. this activity leading to snow
accumulation ends through the afternoon once mid-level subsidence
increases, shrinking convective depths. the continuation of west
flow with the subsidence does bring the chance for flurries for the
remainder of the day until low-level streamlines upstream turn more
southerly by late wednesday night.

thursday morning has been a time of interest regarding snowfall
potential across southern michigan but has been contingent on where
a baroclinic zone aligns across the ohio valley and where
precipitation from overrunning will set up. the vast majority of
deterministic and ensembles have shifted the precipitation shield
south of the state line owing to less amplification of the upstream
troughing across the plains, which in turn holds the better moisture
and isentropic ascent to the south. there is still a subset of
ensembles (<25%) that clip southern michigan with snow which is
highlighted in the latest nbm pops, with retains the chance to see
snow. otherwise, temperatures hold right around the average through
the midweek period with highs in the low 30s and lows in the 20s,
with increasing temperature trends to end the week with highs in the
40s.

marine...

gusty northwest winds subside this evening as high pressure builds
in from the west. sustained winds drop below 10 knots overnight,
reducing moisture flux off of lake huron and bringing and end to
snow showers. high pressure influence will be short-lived as the
next clipper system quickly moves toward the great lakes tuesday
afternoon, shifting winds to the south. a strong low level jet (50-
55 knots) accompanies this system, although will be anchored to warm
advection that leads to stability across the cold/ice covered
waters. guidance keeps winds elevated, especially with the low level
jet max coming through after peak diurnal mixing. these factors
limit confidence in gusts being able to exceed 30 knots. much higher
confidence in the snow potential with this system, with potential
for rates to exceed a half inch per hour tuesday evening. winds veer
to the west with the passage of a cold front early wednesday
morning, which will subside through the day as high pressure returns
wednesday night. forecast confidence decreases into the late week
period as the next low tracks across the ohio valley, but with
variability in its exact track and impacts to the great lakes
region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...am
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.