Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued
for the entire area through 10 pm edt. the threat of severe storms
for tonight has increased to an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. a flood watch has been
issued until midnight for portions of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania that have already received heavy rain over the last 24
hours.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening. the primary threat will be damaging winds but large and a
tornado or two are also possible. thunderstorms will also produce
heavy rain and could result in flash flooding, especially for area
that have received heavy rain over the last 24 hours.

2) the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will continue on
friday, especially across southern portions of the area.

3) cooler and drier weather is expected for the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
considerable instability has developed across the region this
afternoon with ml cape values of 2500-3000 j/kg. an mcs is
taking shape over lower michigan and is going to be the driving
feature for severe thunderstorms to affect the area this
evening. a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the
entire area through 10 pm and a flood watch has been issued for
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through
midnight.

the mcs is moving southeast around the periphery of the upper level
ridge. a bullseye of 40-50 knots of effective shear is forecast to
move from michigan across lake erie towards cleveland and the
northeast lakeshore. damaging wind gusts to 70 mph will be the
primary hazard this evening, although isolated stronger wind
gusts are possible, especially with bowing line segments or cold
pool acceleration. large hail and a tornado or two are also
possible given the strong shear and lift in the column. latest
cams do indicate more of a linear feature that looks fairly
progressive through the evening. in this case, the potential
for training storms may be somewhat lower. portions of northeast
ohio received up to 2 inches of rain this morning while
portions of northwest pa and especially erie county has received
2-5 inches of rain over the last 36 hours. this recent rainfall
will lead to wet antecedent conditions and flooding or flash
flooding will be faster to develop.

the southward extent of storms is less certain, especially south of
route 30 in nw ohio. if storms can extend farther south, dcape
values are very high in the 1200-1400 j/kg range, making downbursts
very concerning.

this activity will push southeast of the area by 10 pm but a
boundary will remain from lower michigan towards central ohio.
additional shortwave energy is expected to round the ridge overnight
and showers could continue along with scattered thunderstorms. any
thunderstorms late tonight should pose a lower threat of severe
weather.

key message 2...
the timing and coverage of storms this evening and late tonight
will have an impact on severe weather potential on friday. one
shortwave could pass early friday morning with a second through
midday on friday. some models indicate that southern portions of
the area could destabilize again between the first and second
round with a few severe thunderstorms possible on friday,
especially along and south of the route 30 corridor. the
potential for stronger storms would be a little earlier in the
day, from late morning through mid-afternoon.

the cold front has trended slower to clear the local area, thus
prolonging the potential for showers and thunderstorms. another
round is possible across nw ohio on friday night and even into
saturday now. this should shift south with time on saturday as we
finally see a cap developing with increasing subsidence.

key message 3...
high pressure over the great lakes will begin to
build in from the north on saturday, firmly taking hold of the area
for sunday and monday. a drier airmass will accompany high pressure
with temperatures settling back to seasonal norms in the upper 70s
to near 80 degrees.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
the main message for aviation weather will be variable mvfr/ifr
conditions this evening with showers and thunderstorms ending.
conditions range from vfr over nwoh to mvfr/ifr this evening.
conditions will improve as the convection ends from west to east
later this evening. mvfr to ifr ceilings may redevelop after
06z overnight, especially for tol, cle, cak, and yng. ceilings
will eventually improve to vfr later friday morning through the
afternoon/evening. there is a may be additional convection that
develops between 16z and 21z friday afternoon. winds will be
somewhat light and variable overnight becoming westerly or
southwesterly later in the taf period between 5 and 10 knots.

outlook... non-vfr possible in rounds of showers/storms through
friday evening.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet conditions are expected on lake erie through
friday outside of rounds of thunderstorms. a quasi-stationary
front draped west- east across the lake this afternoon and
evening will push slowly south as a cold front tonight and
friday. this will keep winds on the lake light and variable
through friday afternoon before becoming more steadily n at 5-10
knots. stronger ne winds of 10-20 knots are expected late
friday night through sunday as canadian high pressure builds
across the great lakes. this will build wave heights to 2 to 3
feet in the western and central basins at times, and we may be
near small craft advisory criteria. lighter, mainly e winds,
are expected sunday night through tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch until midnight edt tonight for ohz012>014-023-089.
pa...flood watch until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...77
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
657 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity continue through with peak heat indices
around 100 degrees.

- 20-30% chance of thunderstorms tonight. another chance for
storms occurs early friday and potentially again friday
afternoon/evening.

- thunderstorms are in the forecast again for saturday.

- a dry pattern takes over sunday through tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 204 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

we continue to have this strong ridge across the southeast into the
end of the work week with high heat (18c+ 850 mb temps that are
conducive to 90f sfc temps with mixing and 70 degree dew points)
that look to continue until we can get some weather in here or a
weakness forms in the upper ridging.

we do have the risk of severe weather today (slight risk from spc)
that with the high heat and instability could produce some severe
weather, primarily west of in-15 and north of us-6 where the better
shear seems to reside. the better flow is north and west of the area
and the nam seems to want to spark some stronger convection in the
18z window across wi today and move it southeast into the evening.
if we can get some good convergence to get some ascent within the
better jet kinematics to the north, that would seem to be enough to
erode the cap and spark some thunderstorms across the area. an
outflow boundary pushes into the area and pushes southeastward and
likely becomes a focus for storms this afternoon. the hrrr and the
rap don`t seem too enthusiastic about it though and so will continue
with the low 20 to 30 percent chance pops that have a threat for
wind, hail.

this puts the area in a bit of a bind for what to do for friday as
far as heat headlines go. since this depends on if overnight
convection can happen or not, do not have a lot of confidence.
individual model guidance seems to place the best chance (35 to 40%)
for heat headlines across pulaski and fulton, white to miami, and
perhaps starke county as well, in indiana for friday, but there is
some chance for areas along and south of us-30. this would be mostly
removed from where thunderstorms are possible on friday at least
where model qpf is being resolved. the issue is that models are all
over the place with the location of the low level jet for friday,
which also provides lower confidence for heat headlines. after
collaboration with neighboring counties have settled with the first
five counties mentioned above in a heat advisory for friday where
the highest confidence resides with respect to storm potential and
heat index forecast. it is possible that some tweaking takes
place in following forecast shifts once storm potential and
cloud debris becomes better realized.

the nam and gfs have model confluence around a low level jet (of
different magnitudes) diving southeast through the area, likely in
conjunction with a convective wave friday evening/night. the ecmwf
does resolve some qpf associated with the low level warm advection,
but those are lower in magnitude than the gfs and nam providing
lower confidence again.

there does appear to be better model agreement around a backdoor
cold front that would bring heat relief and push thunderstorm
chances farther southwest as the upper ridging buckles and a mid
level trough works into the northeast us saturday night/sunday time
frame. this would keep the area dry from sunday through tuesday.

we`re back into the high heat and humidity by wednesday as another
ridge builds into the western conus and pushes eastward toward our
area. a wave approaching for tuesday evening/night may bring our
next chance for showers and storms. another trough winds through
thursday providing another rain and taking away the heat. it is
possible that the heat sort of jockeys around lasts longer than just
a day, but this one day heat chance looks most likely at this
point.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 657 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

dry/vfr with light winds for most of tonight as composite
outflow boundary and associated convection has cleared off to
the south. there are low chances (20-30%) for scattered
showers/storms later tonight into friday as additional
convection could top the upper ridge in the vicinity of the
primary theta-e ridge, though confidence in timing is too low
for mention in the taf at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012-014-017-018-024>027-032>034-103-104-116-
203-204-216.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt friday for inz013-015-020-022-023.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
725 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

.key messages...

- additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast overnight into
friday morning with potential for another round late friday
afternoon or evening. isolated storms may be strong to severe.

- more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity are slated to
return this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

the se mi terminal corridor enters a pause on thunderstorms for the
bulk of tonight while the parent frontal boundary settles slightly
closer to the in/oh border. storm debris clouds had a wide range of
ceiling immediately trailing the system which are now shifting into
more of a post frontal pattern for the late night and friday
morning. this ranges from borderline ifr/mvfr ongoing toward mbs to
a chance for lifr/ifr fog toward dtw where clearing sky and light
wind combine with saturated ground conditions.

the ceiling and visibility restrictions linger well into friday
morning in and around a stray shower or thunderstorm late tonight,
along with a chance for another more organized system with severe
intensity after sunrise. the plan is to hold on with prob30s for the
morning while monitoring upstream conditions for later timing,
intensity, and location updates. the morning storms, assuming they
survive from the midwest, move south of the in/oh border for the
afternoon. they leave the front still in the vicinity and a factor
in cloud coverage through friday evening.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for a stray thunderstorm
across d21 during the late night, and then another chance of an
organized storm system friday morning. the best timing estimate is
from about 13z to 16z followed by improved conditions friday
afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and friday.

* moderate for 200 ft ceiling and/or 1/2 sm visibility around
sunrise.

* low for thunderstorms after 13z friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 325 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

discussion...

an organized mcs prompted severe thunderstorm watch 648 which
remains in effect until 7pm. this complex is tracking southeast
along a stalled frontal boundary north of a subtropical air mass.
sfc dew points south of the boundary sit in the lower to mid 70s,
with steep mid-level lapse rates fueling 2000 to 3000 j/kg of
sbcape. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear has been more than
sufficient for bowing segments and transient embedded supercellular
structures. a few stronger updrafts will have the potential to
produce large hail, but the current storm mode favors wind gusts of
60 to 75 mph as the primary threat. a tornado or two also can`t be
ruled out, especially where any segments deviate s to sse to
capitalize on enhanced srh that exists near metro detroit.

heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be a threat through the
event as pwat sits 2 inches and a deep warm cloud layer depth to 12-
13 kft supports efficient rainfall processes. while most convection
has been relatively progressive which limits residence time of
heavier rates, the environment supports rates of 1 to 2 inches per
hour. corfidi vector magnitude weakens to 10 kt suggesting potential
for backbuilding and training convection that may produce pockets of
rainfall in excess of 2 inches within a few hours. if this occurs
over urban areas and/or locations that have received heavy rain in
the past 24 hours, flooding will be a concern. after the complex
exits, a period of subsidence supports a lull through the late
evening with potential for fog development overnight.

the next shortwave spills over the upstream ridge axis overnight
before passing over lower mi between 09z and 18z friday. this wave
pulls the nearby reservoir of higher theta-e back ne and toward the
area, tightening the instability gradient in place. this offers a
favored corridor for nocturnal convection to go upscale and track
ese through the early to mid morning, with a veering llj supplying a
feed of subtropical moisture into the elevated frontal boundary.
should an organized cold pool capable of overcoming developing cin
emerge upstream, available hi-res ml guidance does support potential
for isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. given
unfavorable diurnal timing and limited surface-based instability,
the favored scenario is for a weakening trend and relatively muted
severe potential. the environment remains supportive of localized
torrential rainfall with any convection overnight into friday
morning.

the frontal zone migrates slightly southward on friday, its
placement and the subsequent orientation of the instability axis
dictating where additional convection may become favored by friday
afternoon and evening. a majority of cams place this corridor across
western lower mi, intersecting areas as far north as m-59. a similar
environment in place offers potential for another round of strong to
severe storms if convection materializes. the swody2 highlights a
marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow with support from hi-res
ml guidance.

the upper air pattern evolves into a large scale omega block by
saturday, likely holding in place through the weekend with an
amplified ridge extending from texas into the northern plains. our
placement within the northwest flow downstream of the ridge axis
keeps some potential for showers/storms in the south on saturday,
but expansive high pressure is then shown to dominate the great
lakes by the latter half of the weekend and into the early work
week. this will bring the return of a more seasonable air mass with
lower humidity.

marine...

a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the region through
this evening offering potential for additional severe weather,
particularly from the st. clair river down to western lake erie.
prevailing winds and waves stay below threshold criteria as the
gradient remains weak, but the very unstable/muggy air mass favors
rapid development of strong to severe storms. such storms will be
capable of gusts in excess of 40 knots and/or hail in excess of 0.75
inches. mwss and smws will continued to be used to address short-
term local watercraft concerns. hi-res models indicate the waterways
should begin to stabilize by approximately 00z this evening. a lull
in activity is expected for part of the overnight period with winds
becoming light and variable, if not weakly easterly. a low
confidence forecast continues into friday with additional rounds of
convection likely for portions of the central great lakes. the first
round of storms could reach saginaw bay as early as 10z friday,
followed by a secondary round further south friday evening. no long-
fused headline concerns expected through the weekend once the ridge
over central conus eventually dislodges. gusts should remain just
below small craft advisory criteria saturday, albeit with increasing
wave energy given onshore flow. drier weather is forecast for
saturday and sunday.

hydrology...

a mature thunderstorm complex is tracking southeastward across the
area this afternoon. a subtropical air mass in place allows for
torrential rainfall rates of over 1 inch per hour, but relatively
brief residence time of these rates has mitigated a more widespread
flooding threat thus far. there is the potential for some training
or backbuilding of storms this afternoon which would result in
pockets of amounts in excess of 2 inches. this would support a
localized flooding threat especially if this occurs over any urban
areas or locations that received heavy rain already in the past 24
hours. there is a signal for another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop overnight into friday morning, which will
be capable of producing up to an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall for localized areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
hydrology....tf


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.