Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion...updated
national weather service cleveland oh
628 am est wed dec 10 2025

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.synopsis...
an active weather pattern in store as a strong low pressure system
moves through the great lakes region. the low will drag a cold front
east across the local area wednesday night into thursday. a surface
trough lingers across lake erie on friday while a weak low pressure
system moves through the ohio valley. another cold front
crosses the region on saturday before high pressure enters on
sunday.

&&

.near term /through thursday/...
deepening low pressure will glide through the southern great lakes
region through the near term. the low will move a cold front east
across the local area during the afternoon/evening today. initial
burst of precipitation will continue to spread across the region.
generally expecting mostly rain across the western half of the
forecast area, a rain/snow mix along the i-71 corridor, and wet snow
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the snowfall
forecast has trended slightly higher across northeast ohio and have
opted to issue a winter weather advisory for geauga and ashtabula
counties where 3-6" of snowfall is expected. expect for a snowy and
slick commute wednesday morning given the timing of highest snowfall
rates with the greatest impacts expected in the winter weather
advisory area.

a brief dry slot moves overhead late this morning/early afternoon
behind the initial push of precipitation before the cold front pushes
east later this afternoon/evening. precipitation should transition
to all snow with the frontal passage as temperatures drop. most
of the area will see an inch of less of snowfall with the cold
front through temperatures will rapidly fall which may lead to
some slick spots on roadways during the evening commute.
snowfall will diminish from west to east with the frontal
passage before lake effect snow develops wednesday evening
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. generally
anticipate an additional 2-4" across northeast ohio, 3-5" across
crawford county pa, and 5-10" across erie county pa with lake
effect snowfall wednesday night through thursday. have upgraded
the winter weather advisory for erie county pa to a winter storm
warning as snowfall amounts through the duration of the event
could exceed 10-14" where lake effect bands persist. given that
the event is a mix of both synoptic and lake enhanced snow,
opted for a winter storm warning as opposed to a lake effect
snow warning.

highs today in the upper 30s to lower 40s before lows fall into the
upper teens to lower 20s tonight behind the cold front. remaining
chilly in the upper 20s on thursday.

&&

.short term /thursday night through saturday night/...
any lingering lake effect snow showers will diminish thursday night
into friday morning as a drier airmass and high pressure move
into the region. another clipper will approach the region from
the northwest while weakening on friday. the system will graze
the local forecast area to the southwest but can`t rule out
some light snow across southwestern portions of the forecast
area friday morning. another low pressure system and associated
cold front will impact the great lakes region on saturday
bringing an additional chance for areawide snow showers
saturday and lake-effect snow returning saturday night. highs
in the upper 20s on friday fall into the low to mid 20s on
saturday. overnight lows in the teens are expected thursday and
friday night. much colder on saturday night with single digit to
lower 10s expected.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
an arctic airmass will impact the region on sunday with most
guidance showing 850mb temperatures falling to the -18 to -20c
range. this cold air aloft coupled with fairly saturated mid/low
levels and northwesterly mean layer flow suggest that lake effect
snow mentioned above will likely continue into the day on sunday
before high pressure glides through the region on monday. highs in
the teens to low 20s with chilly overnight lows in the single digits
sunday night. the high will exit to the east through early next week
allowing for temperatures to moderate into the upper 20s by tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
aviation weather conditions vary greatly across the area this
morning and will be that way through much of today into
tonight. the overall message for aviation weather is expect
variable and changing conditions with mostly lower end mvfr to
ifr ceilings and visibility today into this evening. a strong
clipper system is bring a light rain/snow mix across the area
today with strong gusty winds as well. the general trend will be
falling ceilings through mvfr to ifr today for all taf
locations. there will be periods of rain and or rain/snow mix at
times for most of the taf sites that will bring down
visibilities to 2sm to 5sm. it is likely that yng and eri will
stay mostly snow today into tonight.

a strong cold front will move through late this afternoon and
early evening. rain will change back over to all light snow and
lake effect snow showers late today into tonight. lake enhanced
and lake effect snow showers will return this evening and
overnight for the snowbelt, impacting cle, yng and eri. in the
lake effect snow showers tonight, ceilings will be in the mvfr
to ifr and visibilities varying from 1sm to 5sm at times. winds
will be elevated and gusty today into tonight. winds will start
out from the south-southwest this morning 15 to 25 knots with
gusts up to 35 knots very possible. winds will become westerly
to northwesterly behind the cold frontal passage late this
afternoon and evening 15 to 20 knots with gusts over 25 knots
into this evening.

outlook...non-vfr is expected to continue for portions of the
snowbelt in lake effect snow showers through thursday night.
widespread light snow and non-vfr likely with a weather system
and another cold front saturday. non-vfr likely this weekend
with lake effect snow in the snowbelt.

&&

.marine...
rough marine weather conditions are expected to continue through the
end of this week and into the weekend. a strong clipper low pressure
system is currently moving through the great lakes region and will
deepen to 988 mb as it tracks north of lake erie later today. winds
will increase from the south and southwest this morning 25 to 35
knots for most of the basin of lake erie. gale warnings will take
into effect at 4 am and continue through this evening. waves in the
open water will build 10 to 16 feet with occasional waves up to
20 feet. with the southwesterly gales today, water levels may
drop to near the critical mark for safe marine navigation on the
western basin of lake erie. we will keep an eye on trends and
monitor these lower water levels for the potential of a low
water advisory later today.

after the strong low pressure system passes by, a strong cold front
will move across the lake with northwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots
tonight. waves in the open water this evening will start out 8 to 15
but gradually subside to 5 to 9 feet late tonight. additional small
craft advisories will be needed and replace the gale warning when
they expire this evening. sca conditions will continue for thursday
into thursday night with west-northwesterly winds 15 to 30 knots and
waves 4 to 8 feet, occasionally up to 10 feet on thursday.
waves will gradually start to subside late thursday night
between 3 and 5 feet.

a brief break in between weather system will arrive on friday.
southwest winds 15 to 30 knots will develop on friday into friday
night ahead of the next approaching clipper system. we may have a
brief lull in sca conditions on friday but will likely see winds and
waves ramping back up ahead of the next system. another strong cold
front will arrive on saturday with west to northwest winds 15 to 30
knots and waves building higher again. small craft advisories will
likely be needed through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 9 pm est thursday for ohz013-014.
pa...winter storm warning until 4 am est friday for paz002.
winter weather advisory until 4 am est friday for paz003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez142.
gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez143>149-
163>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 am est wed dec 10 2025

.key messages...

- colder air returns later today and rain will end as some brief
light snow. 1-2" of lake effect snow is possible this evening
and overnight.

- 1-3" of snow is then expected mainly south of us-30 on
thursday night.

- more light snow is expected this weekend, along with very cold
air. wind chill values may drop below -10f sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 312 am est wed dec 10 2025

our cwa is now firmly in the warm sector of 990mb surface low
crossing southern lake mi. several peak gusts around 35 kts over the
last few hours as we almost mix into 50+ kt llj just above 900mb.
strong stable layer will prevent tapping into higher gusts though
and by the time mixing increases with cool/dry air advection later
today, the gradient will be much weaker. expect a few 35 kt gusts to
continue at times through the morning but should remain safely below
advisory criteria. almost entire cwa now reporting rain as well with
just hillsdale reporting 34f and -sn/up. warm air will continue
advecting north and bulk of precip through the morning will remain
liquid. of course, colder air does return by the afternoon as
surface low exits and northwesterly flow returns. precip will likely
end as some light snow especially in our northern zones but
little/no accumulation expected given commensurate arrival of dry
air and loss of forced ascent. any accumulating snow will be tied to
a brief window of marginally favorable conditions for les this
evening and overnight. nnw flow pushes 850mb temps to around -13c
tonight but inversion heights are a paltry 5 kft and 0-2km theta-e
lapse rates remain positive. a brief window of weak low level
convergence around 21z this afternoon will probably be the best
chance for a slightly more organized band. winds slowly back
overnight though further limiting the lake response. overall an
isolated 1-2" in our nw zones is all that is anticipated through thu
am. overnight lows do drop back into the teens. winds relax tonight
but remain steady near 10 mph yielding thu am wind chills in the
single digits.

next clipper system arrives thu night with the next round of light
snow. cva forcing is much weaker with this system. expect a classic
clipper setup with just a brief and narrow region of waa/fgen
sliding through the region thu night. expect a fairly tight gradient
in qpf/snowfall given such narrow, modest forcing in an otherwise
dry/stable environment. several of the newest 00z deterministic runs
even suggest areas along/north of us-30 will remain entirely dry.
still some uncertainty in exact track based on ensemble guidance
though, so maintained some lower pop`s/qpf further north but do
expect the highest totals (likely 1-3") to remain south of us-30.

still expecting another clipper this weekend with very cold air.
details on snow amounts, particularly the lake effect component, are
difficult to pinpoint this far out but do expect temps around zero
and wind chills of -10 to -20f, especially sunday morning. luckily
this cold/snowy pattern looks to finally break by next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 620 am est wed dec 10 2025

low pressure center is currently passing north of the area and
rain will slowly taper off during the next few hours. as winds
switch around to northwest, colder air returns and a brief
period of snow with ifr stratus is possible before synoptic
precip ends this afternoon. lake effect snow will then be
possible during the late afternoon and evening. lake effect
parameters are not highly favorable and there is some
uncertainty in where exactly the bands set up. brief ifr may be
possible but will hold mvfr for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
607 am est wed dec 10 2025

.key messages...

- a winter weather advisory remains in through this afternoon along
and north of i-69 where snowfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are
expected.

- all rain or a mix of rain and snow showers occur along and south
of m-59 across metro detroit which change back to all snow by this
afternoon.

- snow tapers off this afternoon followed by colder air leading
temperatures down into the teens thursday morning.

- an active pattern continues late this week into the weekend as
arctic air digs in yet again. there is potential for sub-zero wind
chill and additional rounds of light accumulating snow.

&&

.aviation...

snow has changed to all rain at dtw while trending toward a
rain/snow mix at ptk and briefly at fnt. snow is past peak at mbs
but remains all snow as low pressure slides west to east about over
fnt during the morning. this surface low track keeps mbs at lifr and
fnt at ifr while brining a warm sector mvfr ceiling to dtw with sw
wind gusting around 30 knots. ceiling conditions improve as the
trailing band snow moves eastward and wind picks up from the n-nw
while passage of the cold front also changes rain back to all snow
for any remaining activity this afternoon until exiting eastward late
the day. passage of the low and cold front also bring nw gusts
increasing to around 30 knots that last well into this evening post
sunset as cold air surges back into the region. a few lake effect
cloud streamers make it into se mi late tonight but have low
predictability into thursday morning.

for dtw... light rain continues off and on during the morning and
then becomes mixed with and changes back to snow this afternoon. sw
develops gusts in the 30 knot range and then shifts n-nw around 18z
through tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through the forecast period.

* high for precipitation type as rain this morning, then high for a
transition back to snow after 18z this afternoon.

* moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold from 300-330 direction
this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 am est wed dec 10 2025

discussion...

snow spread rapidly across southern lower mi since late last evening
leading to a peak burst progressing from sw to ne across the area.
the heaviest snow is now exiting the m-59 corridor and setting up
across the tri cities and northern thumb at forecast issuance. an all
snow scenario remains focused there while a mix of rain and snow
reaches the i-69 corridor. snow has or is in the process of changing
to all rain south of m-59 across metro detroit to the ohio border.
these observational trends reflect how effective this low pressure
system is at drawing warm air northward to ultimately limit snow
accumulation. the advisory area is then unchanged with this forecast
update while monitoring the northern reaches of midland, bay, and
huron counties where a short fused warning upgrade remains possible.
the prospects of single digit snow ratio even that far north is the
deciding factor for holding off on the upgrade for now.

the system has a very dynamic presentation in satellite and radar
imagery making it no wonder that so much warm air is being drawn
northward as it tracks roughly along the i-69 corridor during the
morning. the rain/snow line set up immediately on the south end of
lake mi before midnight and has since moved northward/eastward over
azo/btl to near lan and ptk at forecast issuance. this matches up
well with the surface low track combined with model 1000-850 mb
partial thickness that suggest the rain/snow line grazes the i-69
corridor with single digit snow ratio all the way up to m-46. refs
mean soundings show a substantial rain/snow mix up to fnt with
support from href mean precip type while sref mean soundings are
closer to all snow. at minimum, this supports a sharper single digit
snow ratio gradient north of m-46 into about 10:1 ratio toward the
northern fringe of the qpf axis across northern midland, bay, and
huron counties. the peak snow intensity is definitely advisory
worthy as strong theta-e advection occurs in a steep lapse rate
environment to focus high rate snow ahead of the low track where
accumulation up to around 6 inches is on target. totals drop off
into the 2 to 4 inch range south of i-69 toward the m-59 corridor
where mid level instability is promoting a more cellular character
in the pattern leading to a rain/snow shower mix, or just rain
showers south of the m-59 corridor after leaving about a 1-2 inch
accumulation across metro detroit since midnight.

strong sw low level jet forced isentropic ascent supports both the
leading pattern of snow while also leading to gusty surface wind
driving mild air into region. surface temperatures surge into the
upper 30s on sw gusts in the 30 mph range south of the surface low
track to support the full change over to rain. system forcing then
transitions to a deformation zone trailing the 500 mb trough and
along the cold front this afternoon. this transition has a pivot
point just north of saginaw bay during the morning and then slides
nw to se across southern lower mi. it is aligned along and behind
the surface cold front both of which bring a switch back to all snow
and about an additional 1 inch of accumulation before exiting into
ontario mid to late this afternoon.

colder air rushes back into the great lakes tonight through
thursday, although with a limited lake effect response still
reflected in model data. nw flow around the west flank of the larger
mid level trough is shown to generally carry dry air through the mid
levels for muted convective depth across the great lakes. the colder
temperatures end up as the weather highlight as readings drop into
the teens by thursday morning and only recover into the 20s
representing the next round of arctic air the just deepens during
the late week into the weekend.

marine...

wide spread snow and some rain to the south is ongoing as low
pressure tracks across southern lower michigan today. the
southwest low level jet ahead of the low looks to be very strong
(40+ at 925 mb/50+ knots at 850 mb) toward the southern michigan
border. still a very difficult call on the near lake surface
stability over over the nearshore waters of western lake erie, as
peak south-southwest winds look to be around 12z wednesday. with the
water temp near freezing over the nearshore waters and surface dew
pts rising into the low to mid 30s, anticipate just enough limited
mixing to keep gusts to gales less than 3 hours, as winds also look
to be more southwest/offshore. as usual with offshore flow nearing
gales, there will be heighten concern for low water conditions
across the western basin of lake erie.

rush of cold air behind the passage of the low in the afternoon
will then support strong northerly winds wednesday afternoon and
early wednesday evening. a gale warming remains in effect,
as model data continues to support frequent gusts to marginal gales
over most of southern lake huron. 850 mb temps lowering
to -16 c over northern lake huron will promote deep mixing and lake
induced troughing, which should keep gusts to gales going over the
open waters of lake huron, at least through midnight, before winds
gradually diminish through the rest of the night into thursday
morning. however, a 500 mb low tracking south along the
ontario/quebec border will re-enforce the cold air, and should
maintain sufficient mixing/gradient over lake huron to support gusts
in the 25 to 30 knot range out of the northwest during thursday.
surface ridge building in for thursday evening/night will lead to
much lighter winds, which should linger into friday as a wave of low
pressure track through the ohio valley. none-the-less, an
arctic front is on track to move through friday night, with
sporadic gusts to gales possible over lake huron during the weekend
as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 c, supporting snow squalls and
freezing spray as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lhz422-443.

gale warning from 11 am this morning to 3 am est thursday for
lhz363-462>464.

gale warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm est this evening for
lhz421-441-442.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...bt
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.