Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 232341
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
741 pm edt mon mar 23 2026

.what has changed...
monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms with heavy
rainfall late thursday into thursday evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) light lake enhanced snow showers will gradually diminish tonight
as high pressure builds east. dry and mild conditions expected
tuesday and wednesday.

2) active weather returns on thursday as a strong cold front pushes
through the great lakes region. scattered to numerous thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall are both possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level shortwave will exit to the east tonight as a ridge of
high pressure builds across the ohio valley and lower great lakes.
lingering lake enhanced rain/snow showers will diminish through this
evening.

dry and mild conditions develop under the building ridge of high
pressure tuesday and wednesday. temperatures will warm through mid-
week under southerly return flow. highs in the upper 40s to lower
50s on tuesday will warm into the mid 50s to low 60s by
wednesday.

key message 2...
a strong cold front will push south across the region late thursday
into thursday night. scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be
possible with the frontal passage. ahead of the front 500+ j/kg of
sbcape will develop in addition to strong deep-layer shear 50-60
knots. this will likely support strong to severe thunderstorms
across a portion of the forecast area. in addition to convective
potential, any storms that develop will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall as pwat values rise to 1.00-1.25 inches on
thursday, well above the 90th percentile for late march when
compared to soundings from dtx, iln, and pit. will continue to
monitor this timeframe for both severe and flooding concerns as
the week progresses.

highs ahead of the cold front on thursday will warm into the upper
60s to mid 70s. temperatures plummet behind the cold front with lows
thursday night near freezing. high pressure returns friday into the
weekend where highs friday in the 40s will warm into the upper
50s/lower 60s by monday.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
a trough is pushing south across the area early this evening,
focusing a batch of snow showers that is currently impacting
much of north central/northeast oh...including cle, cak, yng and
to a lesser extent mfd. snow showers should push south of cle
soon, and depart the rest by 2-3z. until snow showers exit
brief vsby drops to 1-3sm will continue, with occasional mvfr
ceilings too. outside of the snow showers it is vfr, though most
have a ceiling around 5,000 feet. expect all to improve to vfr
as the snow exits, and expect the ceilings to scatter out
through the remainder of the evening as high pressure builds in.
vfr will then continue through tuesday.

north-northwest winds of 6-12kt (with a few gusts to around
20kt, especially at cle and eri) this evening will go mainly
light and variable overnight, then shift south-southwest at
5-10kt on tuesday. a lake breeze will likely flip winds onshore
out of the north-northwest at cle and eri by mid-late afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr are possible with periodic rain and/or snow
this wednesday night through friday. thunderstorms are possible
thursday afternoon through evening.

&&

.marine...
north winds to 10 to 20 knots will persist on lake erie through
this evening before quickly diminishing and becoming
northeasterly later tonight. a marginal small craft advisory
remains in place from willowick, oh to ripley, ny until 10 pm
this evening. the highest waves up to 5 feet are expected west
of erie, pa. winds will be relatively light and variable
tuesday with flow becoming offshore at 10 knots or less late
tuesday through wednesday. winds may increase by several knots
wednesday evening through thursday, although additional small
craft advisories are not expected until winds shift to the north
and increase to 15 to 25 knots behind a strong cold front late
thursday into friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sullivan
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 232218
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 pm edt mon mar 23 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend tuesday through thursday.

- a strong cold front brings chances (50-80%) for showers and
storms thursday afternoon into thursday evening. there is the
potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- colder air funnels back in on friday, with gradual moderation
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 125 pm edt mon mar 23 2026

typical late march temperature rollercoaster pattern will continue
through the period with the next good opportunity (50-80%) for
showers and storms thursday afternoon-evening.

it will be chilly tonight as surface high pressure moves through.
temperatures then recover nicely tuesday through thursday as return
southerly flow develops behind the exiting sfc high, with southwest
conus upper ridging also expanding east toward the lower-middle ms
river valleys during this time. proximity to a strong pacific jet
stream to the north may bring some mid-high level clouds through at
times which may affect how warm we get each day. opted not to stray
away from the nbm as a result.

attention thursday afternoon into thursday evening will turn to
chances for convection, potentially severe, as a mid level shortwave
drives a frontal wave through the area. this system appears to have
similar traits to yesterday`s front that produced scattered large
hail and wind reports across central in/oh. westerly flow aloft
should advect an impressive elevated mixed layer (eml) and
associated steep mid level lapse rates into the region. there will
also be ample shear and flow through the column to sustain updrafts
with upscale growth potential. the differences this go around
locally with be more favorable diurnal timing, slightly better low
level moisture return (sfc dewpoints near 60), and thus greater
instability magnitudes. questions at this fcst range are the exact
timing of the front and when/if strong capping at the base of the
eml breaches given somewhat modest frontal forcing. lots of
uncertainty, but this period bears watching for severe convection
given the favorable timing, shear and instability.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 607 pm edt mon mar 23 2026

subsidence and drier air was completely eroding the vfr stratocu
cloud deck at around 040. both fwa and sbn have scattered out at
the start of the taf period. the subsidence and dry air will
prevail through the end of the taf period at 00z helping to
sustain vfr conditions. have included wind shear at the sbn taf
due to recent pireps in the area and wind profiles indicating
wind shear. winds will decouple as the gradient slackens and
will help the winds to become light. winds will eventually
become southerly as the high pressure area continues to drift
east and as low pressure develops east of the front range over
the high plains.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 240348
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1148 pm edt mon mar 23 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend mid week with dry conditions expected tuesday and
possibly wednesday.

- the best chance of rain and possible thunderstorms arrives
thursday into thursday evening.

- temperatures cool back down below normal on friday before warming
back to more normal values over the course of the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

clear sky is solidly in place across lower mi leading up to midnight
thanks to high pressure moving overhead. it also brings light and
variable to calm wind for an ideal radiational cooling scenario,
however fog is not a concern considering surface td holds in the
teens most locations through the night. the very localized exception
could be the west end of lake erie which is always a good idea to
monitor for a stray patch of low clouds or fog that could occur
early in the morning. otherwise, high pressure drifts eastward
during the day while reaching back into the great lakes to maintain
dry air in the low levels leaving just high clouds to increase ahead
of the cold front entering the northern great lakes. sw wind
increases into the 10 to 20 knot range in the pressure gradient
between these systems during the afternoon, however dry weather
holds under thickening mid and high clouds into tuesday night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 pm edt mon mar 23 2026

discussion...

northwest winds will hold through the remainder of the afternoon
while ridging aloft and surface high pressure gain greater influence
into this evening. scattered snow showers will gradually decrease in
coverage as dry air erodes the lower level lake moisture and the
diurnal heating supporting these snow showers ends. model data
suggest that any mention of snow showers will be mostly done by
around 8 pm this evening, so will continue to leave mention out
beyond this time. the center of the surface high pressure will slide
over lower michigan tonight bringing clearing skies. this should set
up a favorable radiational cooling environment. while there will be
some subtle warm air advection with the passing of the ridge axis,
low temperatures tonight should still be able to achieve lower to mid
20s for most of the area.

tomorrow will see the surface high pressure move to the southeast as
a trailing low amplitude trough moves across ontario and the
northern great lakes. this system will have minimal impact locally
with better forcing tied closer to the mid level wave. the warm air
advection will counter the increased clouds from the wave to help
lift temperatures up compared to today. forecast afternoon
temperatures for tomorrow should reach into the 40s as 850mb
temperatures climb towards 0c.

wednesday and thursday will see greater warm advection ramp up each
day as stretch of zonal flow carries portions of the thermal ridge,
tied to the southwest conus high pressure ridge, into michigan. this
will help push temperatures up into the 50s for most areas with some
60s near the southern border for wednesday. for thursday, another
jump in daytime high temperatures with upper 50s into the 60s for
bulk of southeast michigan and some 70s achievable across the south.
meanwhile, a lower level baroclinic zone sets up across the northern
conus stretching across the central great lakes. embedded waves
riding the mid-upper jet within the zonal flow look to generate a
surface reflection wednesday night into thursday. the result will be
increasing rain chances mainly thursday and thursday evening along
with the prospects for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
ahead of an advancing cold front. cold air will offer a small chance
for some snow to mix in with the rain on the tail end of the event
late thursday night and friday morning. temperatures fall back below
normal for friday before a warming trend builds temperatures back up
over the weekend.

marine...

moderate northwest winds continue into the evening as midwestern
high pressure is slow to fully establish overhead. as a result,
small craft advisories have been extended through the evening before
waves begin to lessen overnight when winds finally weaken. said high
is quick to depart tuesday morning as a cold front tied to northern
ontario low pressure glances lake huron. the central great lakes
reside along the fringe of strong upper jet over the upper
midwest/superior through midweek offering periodic rain or rain-snow
showers and generally modest winds as low pressure systems pass just
to our north. a strong cold front is looking probable friday
ushering in a renewed shot of strong cold advection and a chance to
reach gales for a few hours (~35% currently).

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.