Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
203
fxus61 kcle 222320
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
720 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

.what has changed...
as temperatures quickly cool again tonight, the chance for
patchy dense fog will return, especially west of i-71, into
friday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions will persist into next week with the potential
for widespread frost and possibly some areas of freeze saturday
morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a dominant upper level ridge and associated strong surface high
will continue to influence the weather across the area into
early next week. dry conditions with seasonable temperatures
will keep the weather pleasant across the area. there is a
chance for patchy dense fog late tonight into friday morning and
some lingering moisture gets trapped in an inversion. the fog
potential should be isolated to areas west of i-71. in addition,
friday and saturday nights will see a widespread drop in
temperatures into the 30s for much of the area, possibly
touching the upper 20s at times. this will likely result in
widespread frost potential both nights with isolated areas of
freeze potential. both nights may need a frost/freeze headline,
but will wait for tomorrow to ensure trends in models persist.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is expected through tonight. patchy fog and low stratus will
likely develop at inland terminals again early friday morning,
primarily at ktol/kfdy/kcak. during this time, there will
probably be a mixed bag of lifr/ifr/mvfr conditions. any
fog/stratus will lift by mid to late morning. winds will be out
of the north through early evening before becoming calm tonight.
east/northeast winds to 5 to 10 knots will develop by mid-
afternoon friday.

outlook...periods of overnight patchy dense fog may impact taf
sites through the weekend. otherwise, primarily vfr is
expected.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue to push east into the area, allowing
for north-northeast flow of 5-10 knots to persist through
friday. as high pressure shifts on saturday, winds will become
southeasterly at 5-10 knots through at least sunday before
gaining a more westerly component by monday. waves through the
entire period should remain 2 feet or less. overall, quiet
marine conditions are expected to persist with no headlines
expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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179
fxus63 kiwx 222239
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
639 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

.key messages...

- locally dense fog possible again early friday morning, especially
northeast of fort wayne, in.

- tranquil fall weather continues with mild temperatures, light
winds, and sunshine.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 127 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

a largely stagnant synoptic pattern will allow for mild and dry
conditions to continue likely through the end of october. upper
air observations reveal a large upper level ridge building over
the central conus this morning; as it gradually continues to
build, the ridge will shift eastward in the coming days. an
omega block pattern is likely to setup with sinking air
underneath the ridge yielding lots of sun, mild temperatures,
and light winds. with an expansive area of surface high pressure
also expected to anchor over the eastern us, this pattern will
likely remain through the weekend into early next week. expect
several days of rinse and repeat weather with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s and lows in the low to mid 40s each day.

very few changes were made to the forecast today as a persistence
forecast was largely utilized through early next week. no rainfall
is expected over the next 7 days; it is starting to become evident
that while a cold front may move through around next tuesday, there
will not be sufficient forcing and moisture available for any
rainfall with it. towards the middle of next week, temperature
generally trend towards normal with highs around 60 degrees as
the aforementioned synoptic pattern breaks down.

with the stagnant pattern locked in place, clear skies, and light
flow will likely yield some patchy dense fog overnight into early
friday morning. best chances for fog will likely be northeast of
fort wayne, in. much like the past few nights, the best timeframe
for dense fog will be between 3 am to 10 am edt friday, with the
lowest visibilities around daybreak. a sps or dense fog advisory may
be needed overnight depending on trends and where any fog
develops.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 638 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

vfr conditions anticipated for both taf sites through this
period. there will be a threat of stratus/fog overnight and
expected to remain to the east/north of kfwa and well away from
ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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134
fxus63 kdtx 222257
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for dense fog development each of the
daybreak periods friday through monday. any fog that will develop is
expected to dissipate or lift by 10 am.

- mild and dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure will maintain residence throughout the region this
period as it settles into quebec. associated veering of wind toward
the northeast and then east with time through friday morning will
set the stage for some degree of low level moisture advection off
the upstream lakes tonight. evidence of this already underway across
sagainw bay in the form of lower stratus, suggesting a high
likelihood for fog/low stratus expansion into portions of central
and southeast michigan throughout the night. forecast will continue
to highlight a window for ifr to lifr conditions to emerge during
the early morning hours. potential does exist for a period of dense
fog to develop, with visibility below 1/4 mile. a gradual
improvement in conditions late morning as daytime heating works to
lift and clear any lingering low stratus and fog. vfr conditions
with a limited diurnal cu production for the remainder of friday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 244 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

discussion...

an anomalous upper level ridge advancing into central sections of
far northern canada will open the door to the rapid amplification of
an omega block over the central contiguous united states for the end
of the work week. upper level high pressure will then stall out and
impact the forecast area through monday of next week. quite the
structure with h3 heights reaching 588 dam over portions of the
lower peninsula this weekend and +13c 850mb temperatures advecting
well into hudson bay. ideal mid autumn conditions with high
temperatures reaching the middle to upper 60s, 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, and lows falling into the 40s.

the only weather of significance the next few days will be br and fog
chances during the daybreak periods. a better setup for fog will be
friday morning with onshore flow advecting a marine airmass inland.
the relatively warm lakes will offer higher dewpoints that combined
with weak flow will provide for saturation potential. surface
condensation pressure deficits support fog beginning in the tip of
the thumb tonight before expanding southeastward through all of the
area. the fog potential for saturday morning looks to be the
greatest near lake erie before expanding westward. could see a
scenario where the detroit urban heat islands remain just warm
enough to dissuade the fog formation. persistent light easterly wind
should bring more fog chances sunday morning. will likely add areas
of fog in the forecast for tonight/friday morning and maintain the
patchy mention this weekend.

models suggest the amplitude of the omega will shear off or flatten
by monday. indications are that a weak cold front could push
southward invof southeast michigan, however, current data suggests a
dominance of anticyclonic flow trajectories that will not favor
large scale synoptic ascent. preference is for a dry forecast through
next wednesday.

marine...

high pressure influence persists over the central great lakes today
as a surface ridge begins to build and center over quebec.
northerly winds veer easterly tonight with speeds generally aob 10
knots, becoming southeasterly by friday afternoon/evening. winds turn
southerly into the weekend with a slight uptick in speeds as the
stretch of tranquil and mainly dry conditions continue into next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.