Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
165
fxus61 kcle 272317
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
617 pm est fri feb 27 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast swath of precipitation associated with a
disturbance aloft continues to shift southward this sunday
night into monday. as a result, very little or no snow
accumulation is expected in our cwa during that time period
with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1.) mainly dry and relatively-mild weather persists through
saturday.

2.) snow is expected saturday night. total snow accumulations
should be mainly one inch or less.

3.) after a brief period of quiet weather during the day on
sunday, periods of unsettled weather are expected to return
sunday night through this upcoming friday.

&&

.discussion...
1.) a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to
exit e`ward through saturday as cyclonic w`erly flow aloft
becomes established over our region. in addition, a surface cold
front starved of low-level moisture and exhibiting a subtle
slope should sweep se`ward through our region saturday morning.
behind the front, a weak surface ridge should nose into our
region from the north-central united states and vicinity.
mainly dry weather is expected through saturday, including
during the cold front passage itself. however, ahead of the
front, a nocturnal ssw`erly low-level jet of ~40 to 60 knots
at/near 925 mb should develop, undergo moist isentropic ascent,
and trigger isolated to scattered rain showers during the
predawn hours of saturday morning, especially east of our i-75
corridor counties. lows are expected to reach mainly the mid
30`s to near 40f overnight tonight. on saturday, late afternoon
highs should reach the upper 30`s to lower 50`s amidst peeks of
sunshine and very weak low-level caa behind the front. a notable
s`erly gradient in forecast high temperatures exists due to
expected lake erie lake breeze development during the late
morning through early evening, amidst a weak synoptic mslp
gradient, and the fact that ice-free lake surface temperatures
are ~34f.

2.) during saturday night, cyclonic w`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances affect our region as the aforementioned
surface ridge continues to nose into our region. the cold air
mass deepens as the upper-reaches of the aforementioned cold
front sweep se`ward through our region, which should be
accompanied by a frontogenetical deformation zone. moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and
associated with the frontogenetical convergence zone should
trigger a fairly brief period of precip, mainly in the form of
snow, across our region. however, snow may mix with rain
initially roughly along and south of u.s. route 30 before the
atmospheric column cools sufficiently via nocturnal cooling, the
wet-bulb effect, and caa at the surface and aloft for precip
type to become all snow. a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-
level atmospheric column and nnw`erly mean low-level flow
over/downwind of the ~1c ice-free waters of lake erie, weak
lake-induced cape, and the seeder-feeder process should permit
a few hours of lake-enhanced snow (lens) to occur generally
south of lake erie, especially the central and eastern portions
of the lake, before much drier air at the surface and aloft
overspreads our area. total snow accumulations are still
expected to be mainly 1" or less in our cwa, but localized
totals of 2-3" are not out of the question due to the lens.
overnight lows should reach mainly the upper teens to mid 20`s
around daybreak sunday.

3.) stabilizing subsidence and dry weather are still expected to
impact our region on sunday as w`erly flow aloft becomes
anticyclonic briefly as a shortwave ridge moves e`ward across
our region and the surface ridge continues to build from the
upper midwest and vicinity. late afternoon highs should reach
only the 20`s in nw pa and mainly the mid 20`s to mid 30`s in
northern oh amidst continued low-level caa. note: normal highs
are near 40f and normal lows are near 25f this time of year in
our cwa. during sunday night through monday night, mainly
cyclonic w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
should affect our region as we remain within the cold sector,
the aforementioned surface ridge continues to affect our cwa,
and the embedded high pressure center moves from near the
central great lakes toward the gulf of maine. primarily below-
normal air temperatures are expected. moist isentropic ascent
ahead of a stronger shortwave trough axis may allow periods of
light precip, mainly in the form of snow, to impact our region
sunday night through monday. however, the latest trends in nwp
model guidance continue to depict a s`ward shift in the strongest
forcing for ascent and greatest precip amounts. based on these
latest model trends, very little or no snow accumulation is
expected in our region. during monday night, a warm front
should approach from the tn and oh valleys. moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the front should trigger
precip. this precip may change from snow to freezing rain to
plain rain as strengthening low-level waa with height causes an
elevated melting layer to form, deepen, and eventually become
surface-based. however, forecast confidence is low regarding
precip types and amounts. stay tuned to continued forecast
updates for sunday night through monday night.

weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft remains less
certain this tuesday through friday given sizable spread in nwp
model guidance. in general, cyclonic w`erly to sw`erly flow
aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should affect northern
oh and nw pa. a warm front should sweep generally n`ward
through our region on tuesday and allow near-normal to above-
normal high temperatures to return. near-normal or above-normal
temperatures should then affect our region tuesday night through
friday as the aforementioned front potentially wavers between
the great lakes and roughly the oh valley as multiple mid-latitude
cyclones develop and move generally e`ward along the front, yet
primarily waa at the surface and aloft affects our region.
periods of precip, mainly in the form of rain, are expected
tuesday through friday due, in part to moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the front and ahead of shortwave
trough axes.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
the main aviation weather concern for this 00z taf update will
be for some non-convective low level wind shear between 03z and
10z overnight. mainly vfr conditions and ceilings are expected
for this taf period. ceilings will generally be 10k or above
tonight through saturday afternoon. winds will be from the
south-southwest and gradually ramp up to 12-15 knots across the
area with gusts of 20-25 knots possible overnight. as a cold
front moves closer to the area tonight, a strong llj of 40-50
knots will develop. have included a period of llws at all
terminals due to the magnitude of the jet within the period of
3-10z saturday. as the cold front pushes east saturday morning,
winds will become west-northwesterly at 5-10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow saturday night into sunday
and again sunday night into monday, mainly along and south of
us-30. periods of non-vfr conditions are possible throughout next
week as an active pattern becomes established.

&&

.marine...
with mostly clear skies today, there was an excellent view from
satellite of the remaining ice across lake erie. much of the
central basin is now open with the western basin ice quickly
diminishing. in the eastern basin, the vast majority of ice
still exists, however it is important to note that significant
ice cracks are occurring, especially near the lakeshore. as an
active pattern continues through next week, multiple periods of
gusty winds will continue to shift the ice and fracture it even
more.

the first system will occur tonight as a low pressure moving
across the region pushes a cold front east across lake erie.
southwest winds this afternoon will increase to 15-20 knots
before backing to westerly by saturday morning. high pressure
will nudge over the area saturday night, shifting winds to
become north-northwesterly at 10-15 knots. this high will remain
dominant into tuesday. it is worth noting that small craft
advisories remain suspended at this time, but waves within open
waters may build to 2-4 feet at times.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...77
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
862
fxus63 kiwx 280033
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
733 pm est fri feb 27 2026

.key messages...

- 20-45% chances for light snow saturday evening into early
sunday, highest north and east of fort wayne. snow
accumulations up to 0.5".

- 20-40% chances for light accumulating snow along and south of
us 30 sunday evening into monday morning. snow accumulations
up to 1".

- a mild and wet pattern sets up next week. moderate to heavy
rain is possible by mid to late in the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 137 pm est fri feb 27 2026

gusty southwest winds and moderate waa have boosted temperatures
into the 50s area-wide this afternoon! enjoy the mild air while it
briefly lasts, as colder air and two opportunities for light
snow are ahead this weekend into early next week. a cold front
currently positioned over the upper midwest will sweep through
the area overnight. winds have not been quite as gusty today as
originally anticipated, however, southwest wind gusts should
pick up to 25-30 mph ahead of the front early overnight with a
tightening surface pressure gradient. temperatures will be
slightly cooler tomorrow (although still slightly above normal)
in the 40s with conditions remaining dry through the daytime
hours.

strong frontogenesis will then accompany the first opportunity
for snowfall late saturday evening into early sunday morning.
aided by a 50 mb shortwave, a clipper type system will dive
through the upper midwest and into the western great lakes
region saturday evening. scattered snow showers will overspread
the area mainly after 00z sunday, with 20-45% chances for precip
(greatest north and east of fort wayne). depending on
temperatures at the surface, areas along and south of us 30 may
see a rain/snow mix as opposed to just snow. qpf will be very
light with this system (likely 0.10" or less), which in turn
leads to light snowfall accumulations of 0.5" or less.
regardless, snow may create slick roads and reduced
visibilities at times saturday evening into the overnight hours.
northwest low-level convergent flow on the backside of the
system may elicit a brief lake response from 06-12z sunday near
lake michigan. i`ve added in 15-20% pops along berrien and la
porte counties to account for this potential. model guidance
shows a weak single band developing over southern lake michigan,
bringing light lake effect snow anywhere from milwaukee, wi to
holland, mi depending on the model run. lake effect snow
accumulations will be brief and light, if any.

another system developing across the mid mississippi river and ohio
river valley will bring a second opportunity for snow sunday
evening into the first half of the day on monday. with caa and colder
temperatures (falling into the 20s sunday night) due to
canadian high pressure to the north, this system could bring
snow to parts of the area. some uncertainty still remains on the
strength of incoming high pressure to our north on monday; this
developing high pressure may be able to push this system
completely south of the area although have kept 20-40% pops in
for now. our cwa will be on the northern periphery of this
system, meaning that locations along and south of us 30 will
have the best chances for seeing accumulating light snow. snow
amounts will once again be minor, likely 0.5" to 1" (highest in
north-central indiana near our border with nws indy).

a mild and wet weather pattern emerges for the first week of march
with several opportunities for rain mid to late week.
temperatures steadily climb in the early to middle part of next
week, although there may be a sharp north-south temperature
gradient each day depending on how far north the aforementioned
mid mississippi river valley system gets on monday. by the
middle of the week, high pressure will be over the east coast
and mid atlantic, setting the stage for milder air and gulf
moisture to be advected into our area. several opportunties for
rain are on the table for tuesday through friday, possibly even
becoming moderate to heavy at times. highest confidence in heavy
rain comes late in the week, when pwats climb to over 1" and
southwesterly flow advects 50-55 degrees dewpoints. embedded
thunderstorms may also occur thursday and friday due to elevated
instability. by mid to late in the week, temperatures rise to
be above normal in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 731 pm est fri feb 27 2026

vfr conditions continue through the remainder of the period.
did keep the marginal llws conditions in early this evening.
winds then diminish and veer northwesterly behind a cold front
pushing through overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
447
fxus63 kdtx 272352
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 pm est fri feb 27 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy this evening with southwesterly gusts to around 30
mph, then weakening after dark.

- accumulating snowfall expected late saturday with totals of a half
inch to two inches by sunday morning.

- colder and drier on sunday, followed by an extended warming trend
during the upcoming workweek.

- the next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

low amplitude shortwave ridging will build across southeast michigan
this evening. low-midlevel warm advection to the south of the
dynamic shortwave invof lake superior will result in some higher
static stability in the 2.0-6.0 kft agl layer early tonight. a cold
front will then push across the area after 06z which may steepen
lapse rates for some isolated shower activity east of the terminals.
cold advection will then become increasingly shallow resulting in
strengthening midlevel static stability my 12z saturday morning. low
confidence exists in saturation and cloud below the inversion at 2.5
kft agl around daybreak. will look at guidance this evening. no real
model signal for gusty winds saturday with top down saturation
occurring in the afternoon. frontogenetic light snow band is expected
to push into the area after 22z saturday. some uncertainty on the
preferred track of the snow.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening, moderate saturday
daybreak.

* high in precipitation type of snow saturday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 312 pm est fri feb 27 2026

discussion...

southwest flow and warm advection help capitalize on a low afternoon
cloud fraction to boost high temperatures into the low to mid 50s.
meanwhile, a closed low through 400 mb tracks across central ontario
this evening and overnight which pulls an enhanced low-level wind
field across lower michigan. timing of this feature lags the diurnal
cycle, limiting the efficiency of mixing down 40+ knot flow from 1-
1.5 kft agl. forecast soundings still offer at least some potential
for an uptick in gusts late tonight or early saturday, after the
passage of a (mainly) dry cold front. the frontal passage also
causes gradient flow to veer wnw, initiating cold advection and weak
lower column instability for gusts to exceed 20 mph through the
early morning hours. can`t completely rule out a few nocturnal
sprinkles along the frontal slope (01-05z). anticyclonically curved
downglide reinforces subsidence in the wake of the frontal passage,
which could lead to a brief period of clear skies prior to sunrise.

seasonably cooler conditions return saturday while clouds start to
fill in ahead of the next system. weak area of surface high pressure
slides from the eastern plains into the ohio valley as the next
phase of mid-level height falls arrives. axis of low-level thetae
convergence will be slow to move in from the west, closer to 21z
saturday as dewpoint depressions at 5 kft may still be in excess of
30c. however, the mid-levels should become saturated (with respect
to ice) earlier, and given an omega signal indicative of ascent, ice
nucleation quickly activates within the dgz. still, this process
appears to unfold later than previous forecasts, pushing back the
onset timing by an hour or two. confidence continues to increase in
dry conditions until later saturday afternoon. initial snowfall
should be rather light in intensity until column saturation depths
improve after 00z.

higher than usual spatial and temporal variability exists within the
solution space as onset timing now falls within 24 hours. as a
result, the outgoing snowfall totals carry low confidence of a half
inch along/south of i-94 to over 2 inches for the tri-cities.
overall, the preferred window for peak snowfall rates is now
expected between 00z and 04z saturday evening. areas north of m-46
currently exhibit the better potential for hourly rates to briefly
exceed 0.5 in/hr, and possibly approach 0.75 in/hr. still, this
scenario will be highly dependent on the placement of the maximum
zonally-oriented fgen enhancement. another complicating factor will
be 2m temperature trends. a distinct thermal gradient bisects the
cwa saturday with highs barely in the 30s for the northern half, and
possibly into low 40s for the south. should the primary snowfall
axis settle further south, a melting component will affect the front
end of the event, cutting down on accumulations. this problem will
be less prevalent with northward extent, thus favoring higher
totals, assuming the band materializes in the vicinity. from a qpf
perspective, the nbm (13z population) has shifted the highest liquid
totals (up to around a tenth of an inch) further north, mirroring
solutions such as the hrrr, rap, icon, and rrfs, but the 18z run has
reintroduced qpf in excess of a tenth for areas south given more 12z
hi-res support. regardless, with expected totals holding below 3
inches, no winter headlines are needed.

snow should conclude before sunrise sunday morning, followed by
lower tropospheric anticyclone influence sliding into the upper
midwest. the thermal gradient/secondary front then clears south
across southern lower sunday morning leading to greater homogeneity
in 850 mb temperatures in the negative teens celsius. sunday should
be the chilliest day of the 7-day forecast period as highs struggle
to surpass the freezing mark. the drier weather continues into
monday but winds flip from northerly to southeasterly as surface
high pressure translates over the lower peninsula, into the mid-
atlantic. the next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs
tuesday, followed by an extended warming trend during the upcoming
workweek.

marine...

moderate southwesterly winds this evening veer to the northwest
after midnight as an arctic cold front is driven across the central
great lakes by strong northern ontario low pressure. strong cold
advection behind the front supports a 5-8hr period of gales over the
northern third of lake huron with peak gusts ranging between 35-
40kts. while there is a subset of models that suggest a few hour
period immediately post-front of gusts in excess 40kts, these
probabilities have trended lower (~30%) in most recent runs. could
see a brief period of gusts to gales in the central waters of lake
huron along the front itself however duration doesn`t appear to be
long enough to warrant an expansion of the current warnings.
freezing spray develops overnight over most of the open waters of
lake huron in response to increasing waves with areas of heaving
freezing looking likely over the northern waters- a heavy freezing
spray warning has been issued tonight into saturday morning for the
same zones as the gale warning. gradient weakens fairly rapidly
through the day saturday dropping winds sub 30kts with sub 20kt flow
developing sunday as strong high pressure builds across the central
great lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 9 am est saturday for
lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning from 10 pm this evening to 9 am est
saturday for lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.