Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 310819
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
419 am edt tue mar 31 2026

.what has changed...
adjustments were made to temperatures, winds/gusts, rain chances and
amounts over the next several days based on the latest guidance.
there have been no wholesale changes to the general messaging.

&&

.key messages...
1) rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and tonight as a cold front progresses through the region. some
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may be severe.

2) a general 0.75 to 1.50" of rain is expected through wednesday with
locally higher amounts with any training thunderstorms. this rain
may cause some flooding, mainly in typically more prone locations.

3) the next system lifts through the great lakes thursday and
friday, bringing another push of warmer temperatures and periodic
shower/thunder potential. overall, this looks like a lower-impact
system locally.

4) the weather pattern remains active this weekend as another low
pressure lifts through the great lakes, dragging a stronger cold
front through the local area. warmer conditions with shower and storm
chances will continue ahead of the cold front.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
a combination of a low-amplitude shortwave and decaying convection
may bring scattered showers/thunder across lake erie and portions of
adjacent northern ohio/northwestern pennsylvania early this morning.
confidence is not extremely high given upstream radar/satellite
trends overnight. after this, there should be at least a few if not
several hours of completely dry, warm, and breezy/windy weather
across the area ahead of the next round of convective potential tied
to an approaching cold front. highs will surge well into the mid-
upper 70s today, with a few sites possibly reaching 80. wind gusts of
30-40 mph (strongest west of i-71) remain likely this afternoon,
with a few gusts over 40 mph possible in northwest oh.

the main convective potential will be later this afternoon and
evening. a number of models on monday suggested that convection may
develop in northeast oh/northwest pa in the early-mid afternoon
today, potentially sparked by an outflow boundary from ongoing
upstream convection. overnight guidance has generally backed off on
this scenario, though some models (especially the rrfs) still do
have convection well-ahead of the front this afternoon. a flat
shortwave and right-entrance quadrant of an upper-level jet streak
will spread greater large scale lift in from the west late this
afternoon into this evening as the front also approaches. this will
yield greater convective potential spreading in from the west-
northwest late this afternoon and this evening. the front pushes
through tonight into early wednesday, though it will be a rather
shallow front. isentropic lift over the shallow/sloped frontal
surface should continue some rain and even thunder chances overnight
tonight into wednesday on the cold side of the front, particularly
late tonight and wednesday morning as another modest shortwave moves
through and enhances the large scale lift for several hours.

environmentally, fairly strong surface heating beneath an elevated
mixed layer (eml) plume will likely yield very steep (8-9c/km) 0-3km
lapse rates with moderately steep (6.5-7.5c/km) 500-700mb lapse
rates aloft. however, rather modest moisture profiles will likely
limit the amount of instability to 500-1000 j/kg of mlcape, with
locally up to 1500 j/kg of sufficient low-level moisture pooling can
occur ahead of the front. deep-layer shear will increase to a
respectable 40-50kt this afternoon and evening, including 30-40kt of
0-3km shear and effective storm relative helicity values in the
150-250 m2/s2 range. given initially modest forcing and deep-layer
shear vectors that cross the incoming front at a 45-60 degree angle,
initial activity will likely be cellular/discrete. gradually
increasing forcing with time, along with well-mixed low-levels
supporting sub-cloud evaporation and cold pool development, should
allow for gradual upscale growth into small lines/clusters this
evening. initial cellular convection will likely include rotating
updrafts and some supercells, capable of large hail and isolated
damaging winds. as upscale growth occurs, the hail potential will
decrease as wind potential increases. while the amount of shear can
support both supercellular and qlcs tornadoes, high lcl heights and
veered surface flow should keep the tornado risk fairly limited.

the spc now has our entire forecast area in a slight risk (level
2/5) for severe weather, with damaging winds and large hail leading
the way with tornadoes a lower (but non-zero) threat. the most
likely window for severe is between 4 pm and 10 pm coming in from
the west, though we will need to monitor for more limited activity a
bit earlier across northeast oh/northwest pa that may bring an
isolated severe risk. nocturnal cooling and convection gradually
working over the atmosphere should lead to decreasing severe
potential after 10 pm, though shear remains strong overnight so any
convection that can remain surface based could pose a lingering
isolated threat through about midnight. the main uncertainties evolve
around any afternoon convection potentially working over parts of
the area and limiting the later (and likely main) convective
potential. models also offer typical uncertainty over where
convection will fire closer to the cold front and then subsequently
track through our area. the overall setup certainly supports severe
potential later this afternoon into tonight, though with some typical
caveats/uncertainty, likely meaning that parts of the area will
largely skirt around trouble (as is common in most severe setups).

key message #2:

thus far, we`ve lucked out with heavier rain overnight ending up
north of our area and saving us initial some rain/qpf. however, the
combination of a slowly sagging front, deep-layer flow trending more
parallel to the boundary tuesday night into wednesday, skinny
instability profiles (especially tuesday night and beyond), and
precipitable water values climbing to around 1.25" (which is safely
above the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year) do
suggest that rain amounts may add up across parts of the area with
future rounds of convection later today into wednesday. most of the
area will likely see 0.75-1.50" of rain through wednesday, which on
its own would cause river rises and perhaps push a couple of prone
points towards minor flood. however, localized corridors of 2-3" of
rain are possible if any training occurs, which could lead to
isolated flash flooding and perhaps some river flooding if enough of
a basin sees those kinds of totals. confidence in widespread flooding
impacts remains too low for a flood watch at this time, though will
need to keep the potential for at least some limited impacts in mind
and monitor rainfall trends.

key message #3:

the next trough ejects out into the plains wednesday night, with this
trough taking on a negative tilt and lifting into the upper midwest
on thursday. this will drive another (fairly weak) area of low
pressure through the upper great lakes thursday night and friday.
tonight`s cold front will briefly settle across southern ohio on
wednesday, before lifting back north as a warm front ahead of the
next low wednesday night/early thursday. occasional shower (and
perhaps some thunder) potential continues along and north of the
front wednesday and wednesday night, with drier weather spreading in
from the south late wednesday night into thursday as the front lifts
through. it is now looking less likely that the front actually moves
back through on friday as a cold front, as the next low pressure
approaches quickly friday into saturday. however, periodic shower and
thunder chances along and ahead of the cold front will lead to
occasional rain potential across the area thursday and friday. it
will trend quite warm on thursday, with much of the area likely to
see highs top out between the mid 70s and lower 80s. friday also
looks more likely to again be in the 70s across the area, given the
front trending towards not even moving back through as a cold front.

overall, the thursday and friday timeframe doesn`t look extremely
concerning from a severe weather or heavy rain perspective. however,
it will remain unsettled overall with occasional rain potential.

key message #4:

unsettled weather continues this weekend as a more formidable upper
trough and associated surface low swing out of the plains and into
the great lakes. locally, it looks like this evolution will drag a
fairly strong cold front through between late saturday and early
sunday. it will remain very warm with shower and storm chances ahead
of the cold front. this will be a more dynamic system, so severe
weather and heavy rain potential with any cold frontal convection
will need to be evaluated over the coming days. with that said, an
overnight frontal passage could help limit that potential to an
extent. either way, much chillier and generally drier weather likely
returns for sunday and monday behind the front.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
an efficient warm sector early this morning is allowing for vfr
conditions and keeping rain well to the north for now. winds
across the area are mixing to the surface with gusts of 20 to 30
kts. will maintain a llws in the tafs as there is some
directional wind shear with the low level jet but it is fairly
close to 30 degrees. there is some rain and an isolated ts over
sw michigan this morning, but it should fizzle out or miss ktol.
therefore, have dry conditions through the morning hours for all
of the taf sites. winds in the warm sector will continue to mix
down and gusts of 30 to 35 kts remain on the table. showers and
storms will develop to the northwest and enter for this
afternoon and evening. it currently appears that there may be
two waves of convection this evening that will roll through the
terminals and have a broader rain mention for the second half of
the taf period with prob30s and tempos for the better windows
for thunderstorms and non-vfr conditions. behind the convection
tonight, the ceiling trend will be to non-vfr with winds
shifting to the northwest.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and low ceilings into
wednesday. additional periods of non-vfr conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms thursday through saturday.

&&

.marine...
a warm front lies north of the lake this morning and while the
warm sector is doing well with winds on land. winds on the lake
are a touch muted with the dome of colder air thanks to chilly
lake temperatures. therefore, will continue to ride a 15 to 20
kt wind forecast through this evening and omit a small craft
advisory at this time. a cold front will sweep across the lake
tonight and winds will shift to the northwest and diminish. this
front will lift back north as a warm front on wednesday night,
allowing for enhanced easterly ahead of the front and then
southerly flow on thursday. a low pressure system will pass to
the northwest on thursday, enhancing the southerly flow a touch.
this low will pass a cold front across the lake on friday,
shifting winds to the southwest. this front will quickly lift
back north with another low pressure system moving through the
region for the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
321 am edt tue mar 31 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight risk for severe weather today (level 2 of 5).

- scattered strong to severe storms are likely to develop between 4-
8 pm edt, becoming more widespread after 8 pm edt.

- all hazards are possible today including damaging winds 60-70 mph,
1" diameter hail, and isolated tornadoes.

- near record warmth again today with highs in the mid 70s to near
80 degrees.

- much cooler wednesday with afternoon temperatures near 50.

- becoming mild again late in the week into the weekend with
additional chances for rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 320 am edt tue mar 31 2026

a very active week is ahead with mild temperatures and several
opportunties for rain and storms, including potential for
severe weather later today. our entire area is now under a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather per the storm
prediction center. a developing low pressure system will lift
through the upper midwest today, with its trailing cold front
sweeping through our forecast area later this evening. the
system`s attendant warm front is well north of our area across
northern lower michigan currently. temperatures have remained
very mild overnight only dropping into the mid 60s. increased
low level mixing is ongoing with increasing southwesterly winds
over the past few hours. 850mb moisture transport ramps up today
as strong waa and southwesterly winds advect warm, moist air
from the gulf into the upper great lakes region. southerly low
level winds persist today with gusts to 30-35 mph, especially by
this afternoon and evening. with our area firmly in the warm
sector today, highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s area-wide.
locations south of us 24 have the best chances of reaching 80
degrees or higher. dewpoints will be in low 60s by midday. amid
zonal flow aloft and aided by a 500mb shortwave lifting out of
eastern iowa/central illinois later this morning, scattered
convection may clip northwest indiana as it lifts from northern
illinois into lower michigan. this activity is expected to
produce an outflow boundary across northern. as the warm, moist
airmass destabilizes this afternoon, this outflow boundary
should be the focus of where storms develop this afternoon. hi-
res model guidance is all over the place and has yet to come to
a consensus on when and where exactly storms will develop this
afternoon. in an attempt to sift through all the potential
outcomes and determine what could happen today, i have medium
confidence in severe weather occuring but low confidence on the
exact onset. some models have storms developing as early as 2-4
pm edt while other don`t have storms developing until as late as
8 pm edt. with southwest surface flow and zonal winds aloft,
0-6km shear of 40-50 kts will exist all day today. models show
sbcape values of 1500-2000 j/kg this afternoon and evening; a
strong cap is in place now and should hold through the morning.
once the cap breaks and as the low level jet ramps up and we
continue to destabilize this afternoon, i think that convective
initiation should occur between 4-8 pm edt. scattered strong to
severe storms should get going ahead of the approaching cold
front, becoming more widespread after 8 pm edt. moderately steep
mid level lapse rates around 7 c/km will be supportive for
severe weather this afternoon and evening, but quickly diminish
after sunset. while we may start with discrete storms along the
outflow boundary this afternoon, as more storms pop up into the
evening ahead of the cold front, i`d expect a transition to more
of a linear setup with bowing segments/clusters. a mixed, messy
storm mode of both types may also occur as convection grows
upscale. low level vertical wind shear is evident in forecast
hodographs, which depict 0-1 km srh values of 200-300 m2/s2
across our forecast area throughout the evening. in line with
this, spc continues to have our entire area under a 2% tornado
risk with cig1 hatching. while the overall tornado threat is
rather low, it it not zero and if a tornado were to develop, it
could be strong (up to ef2 intensity). a strong tornado threat
would mainly exist if a storm were able to remain discrete this
afternoon/evening. an embedded brief, weak spin up or two is
also not out of the question within a linear/bowing segment.
main hazards though will be the damaging wind and hail threats.
wind gusts 6-70 mph and 1" diameter hail could occur within any
severe storm today.

the cold front will sweep though much of our forecast area from
northwest to southeast later this evening into early wednesday. the
frontal boundary may stall out over our southeast, somewhere in the
us 30 vicinity. while our entire area technically has a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flooding today, winds along and
south of us 30 will still be southwesterly out ahead of the
front, so i have some concerns about a flooding threat
developing there late tonight into wednesday morning as those
surface winds will be parallel to the incoming cold/stationary
front. flooding will be possible given a saturated atmospheric
profile (low and mid level rh >80%), precipitable water values
of 1.25-1.5", and as aforementioned, strong moisture transport
at 850mb will be bringing in very warm and moisture air.
forecast soundings south of us 30 also show tall, skinny cape
profiles and a deep, warm cloud layer >10,000 ft. all of this
points towards potential flooding concerns developing along and
south of us 30, depending on the exact timing and forward speed
of the cold front. if the front is able to clear the area in a
relatively quick time span, the flooding threat will be lower.

temperatures crash on the backside of the front tonight, with
wednesday`s highs expected to occur at midnight. temperatures will
then be in the upper 40s to low 50s during the afternoon wednesday
with cyclonic northwest flow and caa on the backside of the front.
there may be some lingering rain and storms wednesday morning, but
then we end up in the dry slot of the next incoming system later in
the day. mild air then returns as temperatures quickly moderate back
into the 70s by thursday afternoon. the active weather pattern
continues with additional chances for rain on thursday as another
low pressure system lifts into the midwest and its attendant warm
front lifts across our area. more rain is possible next weekend too
as our active weather pattern looks to continue into early april.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 219 am edt tue mar 31 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals, with periods of
mvfr conditions possible later this afternoon into the overnight
hours as a cold front passes through. continued llws with warm
air advection/llj up to around 45-50 knots until morning.
southwest winds up to 25-30kts are expected through much of the
day, shifting west-northwest overnight and diminishing with
time. mvfr ceilings, potentially ifr, are possible as showers
and thunderstorms develop through the late afternoon/overnight
hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt wednesday for lmz043.
small craft advisory until 8 pm edt wednesday for lmz046.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
405 am edt tue mar 31 2026

.key messages...

- an isolated severe thunderstorm remains possible this morning
toward the tri cities and northern thumb.

- scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms redevelop over all
of se mi this afternoon. scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible with damaging wind the primary hazard but also including
potential for large hail and tornadoes.

- a strong cold front fuels storms but also a chance for excessive
rainfall. there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall
mainly along and south of m-46 this afternoon and evening.

- after the front tonight, temperatures drop back to normal or
slightly below normal for wednesday and wednesday night. a brief
period of wintry mixed precipitation is likely north of m-46
wednesday night until become all rain by sunrise thursday.

- another low pressure system brings rain and a chance of
thunderstorms thursday and thursday night.

&&

.discussion...

the overall northward shifting trend of late night convection
heading into sunrise leads to a morning pause and shifts the
forecast focus to severe storm potential this afternoon and evening.
low pressure consolidating in northern lower mi draws the warm front
northward and solidifies the warm sector across se mi for the cold
front to sweep through late today and this evening. consensus of hi-
res and regional models among the 00z runs suggest two phases in the
convective pattern this afternoon. the first is tied to activation
of the warm sector theta-e ridge early in the afternoon that is
forced by very broad mid level height falls and improved positioning
of the upper jet. this occurs as href mean surface based cape fails
to reach 1000 j/kg across se mi, partially due to cloud deprived
surface heating and partially due to early convective initiation.
morning cloud trends will be key to monitor for potential cape
overachievement, as much as possible given the low cape density
profiles in model soundings. otherwise, the wind and shear profiles
still look very favorable for storm organization with just enough
low level curvature to produce rotation in discrete storms that
evolve into linear modes later in the day.

the early afternoon phase of storms complicates expectations for
convective mode along the cold front by late afternoon and this
evening, mainly in terms of how much if any instability remains
after early day initiation. what is not in doubt is moisture
availability and sufficient forcing along the front that combine to
maintain a heavy rain threat as the front moves slowly but steadily
north to south across southern lower mi. the day 1 ero covers se mi
generally along and south of the i-69 corridor where href mean qpf
places greater potential for rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range
before the front settles south of the ohio border after midnight.

a few rain showers linger near the ohio border during wednesday
while the weather highlight becomes colder air inbound from james
bay high pressure. brisk northerly wind carries temperatures down
into the mid and upper 30s most areas by wednesday morning, and to
around the freezing mark toward the lake huron shoreline. daytime
recovery into the lower 40s inland from the lake is about all that
can be managed during the day. this temperature distribution then
leads into potential for a wintry mix of precipitation, mainly north
of m-46, as the next low pressure system approaches and interacts
with the ohio valley front. blended guidance maintains a
rain/snow/freezing rain mix but has backed off snow accumulation and
pushed light icing farther north toward us-10 before changing
everything over to all rain by sunrise thursday.

&&

.marine...

a frontal boundary draped across central lower mi will remain the
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity during the early part of
the day. a surface low tracking across the region will draw a cold
front across lower michigan and adjacent marine waters in its wake
during the afternoon and evening hours. a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal passage during this
time, in which localized gusts in excess of 35 knots will be
possible. elevated winds and/or waves will be driven mainly by
thunderstorm activity, as otherwise stable conditions prevent gusts
from mixing to the surface. a cooler post-frontal airmass then moves
in tonight and wednesday as flow shifts to the north-northeast with
the frontal passage. a period of onshore flow will bring elevated
wave activity into the nearshore waters during this time. northeast
to easterly wind will strengthen wednesday night and thursday as
widespread precipitation expands across the area ahead of a low
pressure system. potential for thunderstorms will increase again
late thursday and thursday night as the low tracks across the area.

&&

.hydrology...

an active period of showers and thunderstorms continues today and
this evening across se michigan with locally heavy rainfall likely,
mainly south of i-69 across metro detroit to the ohio border. model
probabilities remain high for total rainfall of 1/2 inch to 1 inch
across the region before ending tonight. there is however lower
probabilities for localized rainfall of 2 to 4 inches in areas of
more persistent thunderstorms. this threat area is farther south
toward metro detroit and the ohio border as the associated cold
front moves slowly across the area late this afternoon and this
evening. localized flooding is possible, especially in more
urbanized areas. the slow moving frontal boundary will linger across
the metro detroit and ann arbor areas late tonight into wednesday,
supporting additional chances for light rain. the rainfall pattern
remains active during the late week period as a series of fronts and
low pressure systems move across lower michigan, although with
additional totals generally less than 1 inch.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1215 am edt tue mar 31 2026

aviation...

a notable increase in low level moisture under sustained southwest
flow will maintain a weakly unstable environment overnight. this
will sustain a lower probability for some form of convective shower
and thunderstorm activity to develop near a frontal zone draped
across central lower mi and/or through downstream propagation of
ongoing activity over northern illinois. confidence in occurrence at
any one location remains low through tuesday morning and precludes a
defined mention outside of mbs early this morning. otherwise, vfr
under intervals of thicker mid-high based cloud into the morning
period. highest likelihood for thunderstorm development will focus
across the tuesday afternoon and evening periods, as a southward
sagging cold front engages increasingly unstable conditions. outgoing
forecast outlines the most likely window, with further refinement of
specific timing expected as confidence improves with time.

for dtw...very low probability for a shower or thunderstorm late
tonight and tuesday morning. the highest probability exists tuesday
afternoon and evening, with one or more rounds of convection
possible within this window.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 ft through tuesday morning, then medium
tuesday afternoon and evening.

* low for thunderstorms tuesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......mr
hydrology....bt
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.