Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
737 am edt wed may 20 2026

.what has changed...
scattered showers will be slower to diminish today, lingering into
this afternoon for some areas. increased northeast winds on
thursday, especially near the lakeshore and in northwest ohio.
lowered high temperatures across the northeast on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures expected today and thursday.

2) widespread rain of 1-1.5 inches is expected late friday into
saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms over
the weekend. area rivers will experience some rises and a couple may
experience minor flooding.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
at 4 am a cold front was located across lake erie into
northwest ohio. this front will push south this morning ushering
in a dramatically cooler airmass. high temperatures for the day
are occurring early this morning with temperatures falling
through midday. temperatures at 850mb will fall by approximately
10c between tuesday afternoon and wednesday afternoon with
afternoon values in the upper 50s to low 60s with a cool north
wind. for some areas this will be 25-30 degrees lower than
yesterday.

in addition, skies will be mostly cloudy as moisture continues to
stream northeast overhead. a tightly packed frontal boundary in
the 925-850mb layer will trail the surface front into this
afternoon, prolonging shower activity. additional showers will
generally be light although some elevated instability will
remain into the morning and will maintain a slight chance of a
thunderstorm across the south.

high pressure will strengthen over the upper great lakes tonight
into thursday. thursday will have a good deal of sun which will help
temperatures recover into the 60s. locations near lake erie will be
influenced by a brisk northeast wind off the lake, limiting
temperatures to the lower 60s.

key message 2...
high pressure will build to new england on friday as a shortwave
trough lifts from the gulf coast to the ohio valley. a good
deal of moisture advection will spread north into the region as
a surface trough moves north to the ohio valley by 00z sat.
overrunning will lead to a northward expansion of rain through
the day on friday, becoming widespread by evening. there is high
confidence in rain on friday night, becoming focused more
across the east on saturday as the trough continues north across
lake erie. rainfall from friday and saturday looks to be in the
1-1.5 inch range but adjustments are likely. this rain will
lead to rises on rivers and perhaps a couple rivers experiencing
minor flooding.

temperatures on friday are generally expected to be cool in the 60s,
but will be impacted by the timing of rain. the above mentioned
trough does lift a warm front north into the area on saturday with
southerly flow and decreasing showers later in the day bringing a
return of warmer temperatures, mainly across the southern and
western portion of the local area. dryer air looks to move overhead
sunday morning before moisture and instability increase again during
the afternoon. temperatures continue to climb as the warm front
lifts north. scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
cold front continuing to push southeast across the area this
morning, with a brief period of ifr or lower ceilings along and
just behind the front. ceilings will gradually lift through mvfr
and eventually to vfr from north to south through this afternoon
as drier air filters in, though it will be a gradual process
especially farther south. occasional showers and light rain will
be around through this afternoon, ceiling restrictions will be
more common but some mvfr visibility is possible too. showers
will be most focused south of tol-cle-eri (though cle will see
some this morning) and gradually decrease this afternoon into
this evening as drier air filters in. winds will be out of the
north-northeast at close to 10kt today and this evening,
decreasing a bit tonight.

outlook...non-vfr expected at times in rain late friday through
saturday night. scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief
non-vfr again possible sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as
a cold front crosses the lake. winds will briefly increase to
around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning,
which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves
being driven towards the shore. winds briefly lull this
afternoon. a stronger pressure gradient is expected thursday
into friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of lake
erie. winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt.
winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at
times thursday and thursday night. winds gradually turn more
easterly and then southeasterly friday and friday night,
remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late friday night or early
saturday. small craft advisories and beach hazards statements
will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning
overnight tonight or early thursday. will not hoist those with
this package but they will be coming today at some point.

looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds
may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on
saturday. winds will trend lighter for sunday and monday and
eventually come around to the northwest. it will be unsettled
with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms saturday
and sunday, with a drying trend likely by monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
525 am edt wed may 20 2026

.key messages...

- cooler and drier today into thursday with highs only in the
60s.

- next chance for rain and a few storms arrive friday.

- gradual warming with highs in the 70s with periods of showers
and thunderstorms this weekend into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 336 am edt wed may 20 2026

cold front has just about pushed completely through the area
overnight with a few light sprinkles accompanying the boundary.
a trace of precipitation was received here at the weather
office with the showers. today will run about 20 degrees cooler
in most areas with drier and cooler airmass with ridging
pushing in behind the front today. dew points will go from the
current values in the 50s to the 30s and 40s by this evening.
breezy to gusty conditions will prevail today and will be
messaging hazardous beach conditions possible along lake
michigan shoreline areas through this evening. high
temperatures today through friday will only get into the mid to
upper 60s across the area. perhaps a few locations may see the
low 70s by friday. lows overnight tonight and again on friday
morning will drop mainly into the 40s.

a slow moving shortwave moves northeastward on friday within
the southwesterly flow on the backside of the ridging that will
slide eastward. this will increase chances for rain showers and
even some embedded afternoon/evening thundershowers. this
activity will continue into the weekend with periods of showers
and afternoon thundershowers into the beginning of next week
with increasing temperatures due to thermal ridging over the
region. highs will gradually increase saturday through the
middle of next week with highs in the 70s saturday through
monday, a few areas will flirty with the lower 80s monday before
warming further with highs into the 80s for most locations on
tuesday and wednesday. at this time, the expectation will not
be for a complete washout this holiday weekend but with
convective showers it will be hard to pin down the exact timing
and locations that do receive them.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 524 am edt wed may 20 2026

vfr conditions expected through the remainder of this taf
period. a few light sprinkles possible this morning before
shortwave ridging pushes into the region. northerly winds with
gusts up to 20 kts possible after 17z wed.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through late tonight for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
646 am edt wed may 20 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool through friday.

- rain returns by friday night and continues into saturday.

&&

.aviation...

a notably cooler environment expanding across the area this morning.
this will maintain areas of lower stratus going forward this
morning. latest observational trends highlight a predominant mvfr
condition with this cloud field. this moisture will thin with time
as cloud base increases with daytime heating, offering a trend
toward lower vfr before eventually clearing this afternoon. some
lingering thicker upper level cloud may exist for the latter half
of the day. prevailing winds from the north to northeast at around
10 knots throughout the day. dry and stable conditions tonight a
high pressure builds into the area maintains widespread vfr with
little evidence of anything more than perhaps some patches of
cirrus at times.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are expected through thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. low this
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 356 am edt wed may 20 2026

discussion...

a surface cold front progressed across the area overnight and a
strong marine augmented pneumonia front continues to surge south and
west early this morning. an impressive 10 to 25 degree temperature
drop has been observed behind this feature. the frontal inversion
traps a stratus deck overhead early today, but this shows signs of
giving way with time as drier air arrives from the north. some
sunshine looks likely across the north later today but high cloud
remains more pervasive across the south. 850mb temps settle in the 1
to 3 c range today, carrying a much cooler day with highs in the
lower to mid 60s. north to northeast flow off lake huron holds temps
near the lakeshore in the 50s.

upper jet streak entrance region overhead gains an increasingly
anticyclonic orientation through the day, causing expansive high
pressure to spread from the midwest into the great lakes tonight.
another release of dense marine air spreads across the area late
this evening and sends temps down into the 40s and dew points into
the 30s. could see some patchy frost thursday morning in the cooler
locales of the saginaw valley and thumb if wind ends up going calm,
but expectation is for the persistent northeast gradient and a veil
of mid/high cloud to prevent widespread frost development.

light wind maintains a northerly component through much of thursday,
holding temperatures in a similar range compared to today. strong
deep layer stability and mid-level dry air ensure dry conditions
through the day and most of friday. slightly milder conditions are
forecast thursday night with more cloud cover in the vicinity.

longwave trough over the high plains helps direct a shortwave from
the western gulf coast toward the great lakes late friday. the
attendant surge of moisture brings relatively high confidence in
widespread stratiform rain friday night into saturday, with a
notable shift among the bulk of ensemble guidance toward a later
start time - likely after sunset friday. placement of steadiest rain
will be subject to the eventual track of low pressure and efficiency
of warm conveyor moisture advection, but will note 12z lref grand
ensemble probabilities target southeastern portions of the area with
a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch by saturday afternoon.

deep layer southwest flow ensues saturday as the wave lifts through,
with warm advection boosting temps back into the 70s to finish the
holiday weekend. another shortwave capitalizes on burgeoning
instability to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms sunday
afternoon/evening. a warming trend follows next week with good
consensus among grand ensemble 500mb progs in depicting an omega
blocking ridge setting up over ontario by late week.

marine...

high pressure will fill in across the great lakes this morning and
will slowly move across the region tomorrow before washing out
across the continental northeast by friday morning. this will bring
dry weather through the midweek period. northwest and north flow in
the wake of a cold front will bring some slightly elevated winds
across north and north-central lake huron with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
a heightened wave field reaching the thumb nearshore prompted a
small craft advisory this afternoon and evening. as the high
pressure system moves over the great lakes on thursday, winds will
begin to veer to the northeast and will hold northeast-east through
friday. the next low pressure system is then expected to enter the
great lakes late friday into saturday which will bring the next
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.