Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
827 am edt thu apr 2 2026

.what has changed...
no changes to the general messaging. monitoring for shower and storm
potential (along with accompanying severe weather/heavy rain risks)
late this afternoon/evening, late friday afternoon/evening, and again
late saturday into saturday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers/thunder lift northeast across the area through
midday today, followed by a significant warming trend this
afternoon. additional shower/thunder potential moves in from the
west late today and tonight, with a minimal severe weather risk.

2) continued shower and thunder potential friday and friday night as
a front pushes into the area and then stalls on friday, before
lifting north into saturday. some uncertainty exists regarding the
placement of the stalled front and favored location for shower and
storm potential late friday into friday night. locally heavy rainfall
may accompany some storms.

3) a strong cold front sweeps through late saturday and saturday
night. a band of showers/storms with at least a low severe weather
and heavy rain risk likely accompanies the front, with warm and
breezy conditions continuing ahead of it.

4) much cooler and generally low impact weather is expected from
sunday through the first half of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder will lift east-
northeast across the area through about midday along and ahead of a
warm front. not expecting any severe weather or a substantial enough
amount of rain to re-aggravate any ongoing flooding. some patchy
dense fog is developing early this morning, and may not completely
until the front clears a given location. it will remain chilly ahead
of the front, with temperatures quickly surging this afternoon once
the front lifts through. outside of perhaps erie, much of the area
will push well into the 70s today. parts of north central and
northeast oh, which should see the strongest warming this afternoon,
will push into the upper 70s to close to 80. with dew points in the
upper 50s/lower 60s behind the warm front, it will feel warm and
humid for early april. wind gusts of 25-35 mph are likely this
afternoon and early evening, especially west of i-77.

there will be renewed convective potential later this afternoon
through tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
some guidance suggests loosely organized showers/storms firing from
eastern oh into pa late this afternoon or evening, likely along the
leading edge of a surge of higher theta-e air. sufficient instability
and deep-layer shear are expected for a marginal wind/hail threat
with convection in our eastern counties late today or this evening,
though confidence in this convection occurring is low-medium in such
a weakly forced regime.

attention then turns to the west ahead of an approaching cold front
this evening through tonight. showers/storms are expected to develop
and organize well to our west this afternoon, with whatever is left
of the activity pushing into our area this evening and tonight. the
environment is supportive of organized convection and severe
potential to our west this afternoon and early evening. decreasing
instability overnight, the surface front not even approaching toledo
until friday morning, and greater large scale forcing only grazing
us (stronger forcing stays to our west/northwest) all argue against
robust convection spreading across our area. while a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather from the spc does get into our
northwest oh counties with damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
possible, this should be a lower-end threat for our area and should
not carry well east overnight. in fact, confidence in substantial
rain occurring decreases east across the area overnight tonight. the
main window for any severe weather in our northwest oh counties
appears to be between 8 pm and midnight. while the area can not take
much rain at the moment, area-average qpf tonight is under a quarter-
inch with guidance suggesting localized peak amounts will remain
under an inch. this suggests we should not re-new flooding issues
through tonight. it will be quite mild tonight with lows in the 60s.

key message #2:

the cold front that approaches tonight should push into at least
northwest oh and over lake erie friday morning, though will be losing
momentum as low-mid level heights begin rising behind the shortwave
that tracks through the great lakes tonight. the front will likely
push into and then stall across northern ohio on friday, remain
nearly stationary friday night as increasing south-southwest flow
south of the front tries to counteract a push of cooler air from the
north, and then start lifting back north by early saturday.

some lingering showers may be ongoing from eastern oh into pa friday
morning, with a general minimum in rain potential otherwise expected
friday morning. the forecast for friday afternoon-night is
deceptively tricky. it will remain warm and humid with potential for
showers and storms along and south of the front, with cooler and
drier weather north of the front. some models stall the front over
far northern portions of the area, which makes sense given the height
rises that will be ongoing on friday...however, other models show
the front continuing to move through before stalling across our
southern counties towards route 30 friday evening. gut feeling is
that the front will stall farther north given the height rises, but
if we do see a greater push of north-northeast winds off the lake the
height rises may not matter as that would push the front south.

where this becomes critical is in evaluating shower and storm
potential friday afternoon through friday night. models that are
more progressive with the front, such as the hrrr/arw/rrfs, have more
limited shower and storm potential that is focused across our
southern and southeastern counties friday afternoon into friday
night. models that stall the front farther north, such as the
nam/rgem/ecmwf, are more generally aggressive/widespread with shower
and storm potential late friday afternoon through friday night. even
with weak forcing, am expecting the warm/humid and uncapped airmass
to allow convection to start developing friday afternoon. activity is
likely to continue through the night as the front becomes better-
defined and as a modest southwesterly low-level jet develops. again
though, exact placement and coverage are question marks. the
environment (weak to moderate instability with about 30kt of deep-
layer shear) can support a marginal wind/hail risk with more robust
storms friday afternoon/early evening, covered by an spc marginal
risk (level 1/5) for a good portion of our area. instability profiles
get skinny friday night with precipitable water values climbing over
1.25" (well above 90th percentile of climatology for this time of
year), supporting increasingly efficient rain rates within any
convection. the stalled/tightening front should continue to act as a
trigger for convection through much of friday night, with the warm
and moist southwesterly low-level jet perhaps allowing for localized
back-building and training. so, if we do end up seeing greater
coverage of convection, flooding/flash flooding can become a greater
concern on top of soils that will still be fairly saturated.

with the slower front, much of the area should push well into the 70s
on friday with dew points remaining in the low-mid 60s ahead of the
front. locations near the lakeshore may be in for a sudden
temperature drop when/if the front pushes onshore off the lake friday
afternoon or early evening, with noted uncertainty regarding the
timing and southward push of the front.

key message #3:

a much deeper trough pushes into the great lakes saturday and sunday,
driving stronger low pressure through the region. the approach of
this stronger system will lift the front well north as a warm front
into early saturday. as the trough digs it will push a much stronger
cold front across the area late saturday or saturday night.

we should briefly break into a mainly dry warm sector on saturday,
after perhaps some lingering showers/storms near the warm front
across our northern counties early in the day. it will be warm and
breezy on saturday, with highs again well into the 70s with an 80
degree reading not ruled out if we see enough dry time/sun. there is
high confidence in a band of rain/storms moving in along and just
behind the front late saturday and saturday night.

while forcing will be strong, especially saturday night, somewhat
meager/skinny instability profiles to go along with the stronger
deep-layer shear being displaced behind the front could limit severe
potential. a narrow overlap of more favorable shear and some
instability may play out near the front, especially saturday night as
forcing and flow aloft maximize over our area. given that, the spc
has outlined much of our area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather for later saturday through saturday night. it`s worth
noting that given increasing forcing at night, the setting of the sun
will not make as large of a difference with severe potential.
overall, feel this is a lower-end threat for locally damaging winds
as things currently stand. while forcing increases saturday night the
front will keep moving, with average qpf values generally in the
0.30-0.70" range (highest east) and locally up to 1" or so possible
in more robust convection. the amount of rain on its own is not that
concerning from a flooding perspective, though the rain with the
cold front saturday night could worsen any still ongoing flooding.

key message #4:

a period of much cooler weather with lighter precipitation chances
settles in sunday through the first half of next week. a few showers
may linger on sunday. a re-enforcing shortwave and cold front are
expected monday into monday night, with 850mb temperatures
potentially dipping to -10c on tuesday. strong high pressure moves
overhead tuesday night before shifting east on wednesday.

scattered showers may accompany the cold front monday afternoon into
monday night area-wide, with greater potential southeast of lake
erie. minor lake effect may linger into tuesday before high pressure
has a chance to really build in. showers during the day monday will
largely fall as rain, though it will be cold enough aloft that
showers can have a bit of a convective flavor and produce some
graupel or very small hail (not sleet). lingering lake effect behind
the front late monday night into tuesday would likely fall as mainly
snow...though the cold airmass is not deep or moist enough for a
noteworthy amount of lake effect snow, meaning light accumulations at
most. unfortunately, the pops outside of areas downwind of lake erie
are too low to get a forecast mention in our point and click or zone
forecast products monday afternoon and evening, and we do not
directly control those extended grids at the wfo level anymore.

highs will return to the 40s and 50s sunday through wednesday, with
overnight lows mainly in the 30s...and likely 20s tuesday night
across much of the area with high pressure overhead.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
ifr and low ifr conditions are in place to start the forecast
with patchy fog across central and northeast ohio. fog is
starting to improve as a band of showers lifts north. the
showers are associated with a warm front that will lift north of
the area this morning allowing for conditions to improve through
18z with primarily vfr after that time. winds will veer from
east northeast to southerly today with winds gusting to between
20 to 30 knots this afternoon and occasionally into tonight.
surface winds may drop off for a period of time this evening, so
have a brief window of low level wind shear in the tafs. later
tonight there is potential for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to sweep west to east. have added low chances for
showers in several terminals and will need to update timing as
confidence increases.

outlook...additional periods of non-vfr conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms late tonight into friday. non-vfr
possible friday through saturday night with rain and low
ceilings with low ceiling continuing through sunday.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters
except towards maumee bay for 3 to 5 foot waves with northeast winds
of 15 to 20 knots through the morning. after that, a warm front will
lift north across lake erie and winds will shift around to the south
at 15-20 knots by tonight. the front will oscillate north and south
across lake erie through saturday before a stronger cold front
finally pushes east across lake erie saturday night saturday night
into sunday. this will be accompanied by west winds of 15 to 25
knots and waves building to 4 to 6 feet in the nearshore waters east
of vermilion. small craft advisories will likely be needed behind
the front on sunday. conditions improve monday as high pressure
builds into the ohio valley.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
lez143>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...10
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
645 am edt thu apr 2 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and a few storms persist this morning.

- a wind advisory will be in effect from 11 am to 8 pm edt today
in northern indiana and lower michigan. south winds may gust
as high as 45 mph.

- severe weather is possible this evening into tonight, mainly between
5-11 pm edt. there is a slight risk for severe weather with
damaging winds as the main threat. an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

- flooding concerns persist through the weekend with additional
rounds of rain and storms friday into saturday.

- mild over the next several days with highs in the 70s today through
saturday. cooler in the 40s for easter.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 346 am edt thu apr 2 2026

as of 06z this morning, scattered showers and a few embedded storms
are ongoing across the area. this activity is ahead of a warm front
that is lifting northward from the ohio river valley. small scale
500mb shortwave perturbations aloft and the approaching warm front
should allow for rain and storms to persist through the morning
hours, tapering off by 15z (except for maybe far nw indiana).
this warm front is associated with a deepening low pressure
system that is lifting into the upper midwest. as the warm front
move through and eventually clears our area late this morning,
i`d expect a broad warm sector to develop across illinois and
indiana as we end up in the dry slot of the low pressure system.
the low level jet will increase this morning to about 45-55 kts
by midday. i do expect mixing towards the surface to occur,
especially within the dry slot. surface southerly winds quickly
increase by late morning into the afternoon out of the south on
the backside of the warm front. a wind advisory will be in
effect for our indiana and michigan counties from 11 am to 8 pm
today with wind gusts up to 45 mph possible. there could be
lingering showers or clouds from morning convection but mild air
returns as temperatures quickly moderate back into the 70s by
this afternoon with strong low level waa. moisture transport at
850mb quickly increases this afternoon with dewpoints climbing
into the low to mid 60s.

the storm prediction center maintains the slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather along and north of us 24 for today. strong to
severe storms will likely move through our forecast area this
evening between 5-11 pm edt. a negatively tilted trough at 500 mb
and a 45-55kt low level jet at 850mb will aid in surface convergence
and enhanced lift ahead of and along the approaching cold front.
there are some uncertainties with tonight`s severe weather setup
given weak instability. some models show a slightly slower timing of
the cold frontal passage tonight, which would mean storm would be
displaced from the main source of lift/forcing mechanism. low level
wind shear ramps up today but most of the hi-res model guidance only
has about 500 j/kg of sbcape by this evening. mid level lapse rates
of about 7 c/km thursday evening also quickly diminish after sunset
with a loss of diurnal heating. destabilization is somewhat
uncertain due to the aforementioned potential for lingering showers
and clouds this afternoon. although with such strong wind shear, a
high shear, low cape setup is enough to mean that the severe weather
threat is not zero. a wind threat is likely to emerge with storms
this evening given such strong directional wind shear. i`d expect
the storm mode will mainly favor linear/bowing segments, which would
mean damaging winds and isolated tornadoes would be the main
hazards. low level vertical wind shear is evident in forecast
hodographs, which depict 0-1 km srh values of 200-300 m2/s2 across
our forecast area thursday evening into the early overnight. as for
the tornado threat, spc has our entire area under a 2% tornado risk
with cig1 hatching. while the overall tornado threat is rather low,
it it not zero and if a tornado were to develop, it could be strong
(up to ef2 intensity). embedded circulations/spin ups within any
bowing segment will be possible.

our active weather pattern looks to continue late week into easter
weekend. friday night into saturday morning, another low pressure
system lifts into the upper midwest and it`s attendant cold front
moves through our area. the setup looks fairly similar to today,
although there are differences in timing. saturday`s rain and storm
chances will likely occur around midday, which is a less favorable
timeframe for severe weather. with rain and storms today and then
again over the next two days, concerns for flooding will persist
into the weekend. turn around, don`t drown if you encounter a
flooded roadway! rises on area rivers in minor to moderate flood
stage as also likely to continue. despite the soggy forecast, at
least mild temperatures persist too with highs in the 70s friday and
saturday. easter is looking much cooler following the cold frontal
passage with highs only in the 40s on sunday. we finally dry out
into early next week as high pressure works its way into the upper
great lakes.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 645 am edt thu apr 2 2026

rain associated with a warm front is currently lifting north of
the terminals. 500-700ft ceilings are expected through the late
morning before mixing out around 16z and becoming vfr by mid
afternoon. strengthening llj will bring some marginal llws this
morning before mixing out. gusts to around 35 kts expected
during the late afternoon as mixing increases. a cold front
will then cross the area tonight. a prefrontal trough is
expected to send a line of storms through the area around 00z
with mainly just showers along the actual cold front 06-09z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning to 8 pm
edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for inz005>009-012>015-017-
018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for miz078>080-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
705 am edt thu apr 2 2026

.key messages...

- generally cool through the afternoon before a warm front lifts
through this evening. showers and a few rumbles of thunder this
morning.

- additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely this evening
and overnight. highest chances for strong to severe storms will
reside west of us-23 with gradually decreasing chances further east
you are.

- drier and still mild friday, followed by additional showers and
thunderstorms friday night and saturday.

- below normal temperatures return sunday into early next week with a
few additional showers.

&&

.aviation...

the morning ohio valley warm front dominates aviation conditions
across se mi as it takes much of the day to move northward through
the area. higher levels of the frontal zone are already activated
with band of rain showers and rumble of thunder which continues to
expand northward over se mi during the morning along with
temperatures rising farther into the mid and upper 30s. mvfr ceiling
at forecast issuance drops into ifr first in the dtw area and also
expands northward during the morning dropping further into lifr as
the surface warm front approaches the ohio border. in addition to
low ceiling, observations to the south near the warm front also show
a visibility reduction in fog, especially where rain adds moisture
to the boundary layer. rain clears to the north of mbs around noon
while ceiling and visibility restrictions continue this afternoon as
the warm front is projected to reach near dtw toward 21z. conditions
struggle to break out of low flight categories until wind begins
veering s-sw late in the day, just as the first round of showers and
storms move in from the west for this evening. weakly stable to
neutral boundary layer thermal profiles raise wind gust potential in
the warm sector both in and around thunderstorms. prefrontal
convection is followed closely by the cold front late tonight and
more mvfr ceiling and westerly wind gusting in the 30 kt range
friday morning.

for dtw... low ceiling and visibility is punctuated by windows of
thunderstorm potential today and tonight. low storm probability
accompanies the morning band of showers followed by a lengthy break
this afternoon. storms become likely with a leading band by mid
evening and continue along and ahead of the inbound cold front
overnight. the front clears east of dtw toward 12z friday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today, moderate this evening,
then high late tonight and friday morning.

* low for thunderstorms this morning, moderate to high this evening,
and low late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 439 am edt thu apr 2 2026


mid-upper trough lifts into the midwest this morning lifting the
cold front still lingering over the ohio valley back north as a warm
front. elevated portions of this front are now beginning to reach se
mi at time of discussion supporting a broken band of light showers.
showers work northward over the rest of the morning with coverage
increasing over the central portions of the state, including over
the saginaw valley, owing to a lead arm of vorticity reaching west
mi. for portions of northern midland/bay counties- mainly the higher
elevations outside the saginaw valley, temperatures hold around
freezing for the first couple hours of precipitation maintaining a
shot for some lead wintry mix and minor icing up to a light glaze
before temps warm to transition to all rain. given the uncertainty
with borderline temperatures and the small areal coverage of the
counties, opted not to issue an advisory favoring an as needed short-
fused sps instead. elsewhere, a few rumbles of thunder within the
broader shower activity are possible this morning as elevated theta-e
advection into southern lower generates a few hundred j/kg of cape.
shower coverage lessens going into the afternoon as warm conveyor
isentropic ascent shifts over northern lower/lake huron.

attention then turns to the late afternoon-evening timeframe with
the arrival of the surface warm front and prefrontal trough. likely
due to the surface low not reaching wi until ~00z, there remains
good model agreement for a weakly forced/slow moving surface warm
front that doesn`t reach the southernmost mi counties until ~20z.
given this model signal and typical climatology this time of year
with weakly driven warm fronts, its expected that preceding ese wind
off st clair and erie impinge on the front`s northward progression
over se mi (which is being picked up in high-res models). this
results in sbcape residing just to our south and west (as its able
to lift more freely over the central/western portions of the state)
through the first part of the evening. anything that manages to
initiate off the front in the late afternoon-early evening will
struggle to stay rooted in the surface layer as it pushes off the
boundary and into se mi as cooler ese winds maintain strong 0-1km
stability. main chances for wider spread showers/storms (and
outlooked severe potential) arrive latter half of the evening, after
~22-00z, when a prefrontal trough crosses lower mi. by this point,
frontal boundary looks to be buckling into areas west of us-23 as
llj fully establishes itself over southern lower (45-60kts down to
925mb). as a result, these areas stand the `best` shot to see a few
strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts around 60mph being
the primary threat though given the magnitude of column winds aloft,
gusts nearing 70mph can`t be ruled out. mid-level lapse rates aren`t
particularly impressive, around 6 c/km at best, limiting large (1")
hail potential. hodographs lose low level curvature as the evening
goes on, turning unidirectional, confining any tornado chance to the
lead line of storms- given favored linear storm mode, this would
likely be a qlcs tor type though again, low probability of actual
occurrence. for the remainder of the area, height falls associated
with the prefrontal trough dislodge and wash the warm front through,
however due to occuring around/after sunset, it does not result to a
marked response in sbcape with instability remaining largely
elevated. that said, this elevated instability should be enough to
partially maintain storms moving in from the west though probably
with a weakening trend further east they get. additionally the warm
front washing through does reduce earlier near-surface stability
providing less inhibition for gusts to reach the surface. as such,
outlooked slight risks have been expanded to encompass nearly all of
se mi. surface cold front eventually crosses the region late tonight-
friday morning supporting sparser (thunder)shower coverage.

a stronger mid-upper closed low ejecting out over the central plains
friday induces a downstream height rise response across the great
lakes stalling the aforementioned cold front either over southern se
mi or northern portions of in/oh. this trough takes a similar track
to today`s system placing the cwa again within the warm sector as
the stalled boundary lifts back north. showers and a few
thunderstorms are likely saturday as the low works across the
central great lakes with its cold front eventually crossing saturday
evening. while kinematics are favorable for severe storms (bulk
shear >40kts and srh >200 m2/s2), sufficient destabilization is
uncertain with mid-range models showing a wide spread. below normal
temperatures follow to close out the weekend/start the new work week
as 850mb temps fall to -8 to -10c keeping highs generally in the 40s
to around 50.

marine...

the northeast gradient will increase today as the surface high over
quebec continues to push eastward. at the same time a warm front
approaches from the south from low pressure out over the central
plains. this will bring elevated waves into saginaw bay and across
the lake huron shoreline, where small craft advisories are in
effect. the low pressure is then forecast to track towards the
western great lakes later today. as the low approaches, easterly
winds begin shifting to the south through this evening. there is a
low probability for winds to reach gale force late tonight over the
far northwestern waters of lake huron with gusts not expected to
reach the 3 consecutive hour criteria to warrant a headline.
additional low probability chance to reach gales over the saginaw
bay friday morning when flow briefly turns southwest (within broader
south to west veering). rain showers will be likely through the
morning and into the afternoon along a warm front with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms later in the day leading into
friday morning. some isolated thunderstorms may be strong to severe,
leading to wind gusts aoa 34 knots.

hydrology...

numerous opportunities exist for showers and thunderstorms today
through saturday night. main windows for potential heavy rainfall
are this morning north of i-69, this evening-early tonight across
the area, saturday morning, and saturday evening across the area.
showers and thunderstorms will be moving quickly, therefore any
flooding will be tied to locations that experience the highest
frequency of repeat showers/thunderstorms. for today, rainfall
totals range from a quarter inch over metro detroit to around an
inch across the tri-cities. the qpf footprint is broader for
saturday with 0.50-0.75 inches expected across southeast michigan
though some areas nearing 1 inch are possible. flooding should
predominantly be limited to poor drainage and low-lying areas, but
the anomalously warm and humid atmosphere could support locally
higher rainfall rates that could lead to an increase in flooding
concerns. wpc excessive rainfall outlooks place portions of
southeast michigan within marginal risk areas, both days.

prev discussion...
issued at 314 am edt thu apr 2 2026

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt friday for lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory until 10 am edt friday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......ss
hydrology....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.