Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
492
fxus61 kcle 101103
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
703 am edt wed jun 10 2026

.what has changed...
expanded the heat advisory to include portions of north central
ohio, including the cleveland metro.

&&

.key messages...
1) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a
cold front that will push across the region on friday. limited to
isolated risks for heavy rainfall and severe weather.

2) hot and humid conditions ahead of the cold front with little
overnight relief anticipated. daily heat index values will peak near
100f across portions of the forecast area today and thursday. cooler
behind a cold front friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a shortwave aloft will move east early this morning allowing
for any remaining scattered showers and thunderstorms to exit
the region. there may be some lingering showers/storms across
northwest pennsylvania through late this morning. a mid/upper
level ridge will build across the region today which will likely
bring a period of dry weather through this afternoon. a very
moist and unstable airmass remains in place with the latest
href showing moderate instability of 2000-2700 j/kg sbcape.
latest hi-res guidance shows the potential for a few isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing later this evening in
this favorable environment. a few severe storms may be possible
with primary hazards of damaging wind gusts and large hail. spc
has highlighted our cwa in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather today.

by late tonight into early thursday morning a number of hi-res
models continue to show an mcs diving southeast from the upper
great lakes towards the ohio valley. still a fair amount of
uncertainty with the evolution of the mcs as it may be weakening
as it pushes towards the forecast area. depending on the
trajectory of the weakening mcs, there may be some lingering
showers/storms early thursday morning. however, the bulk of
thursday looks fairly dry outside of any isolated showers/storms
that may develop in the afternoon/evening giving the hot and
humid airmass.

more organized convection will be possible late thursday night into
friday as a strong cold front pushes east into the region. the
timing of the frontal passage will heavily influence the threat for
severe weather. as of right now, the entire area is under a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) across
northwest ohio thursday through thursday night. additionally,
spc has a cig1 hatching for damaging wind gusts of 65+ knots
associated thunderstorms moving into the western portion of our
forecast area along and ahead of the cold front. damaging winds
will be the primary threat in any severe weather with embedded
tornadoes and large hail as secondary risks. the severe weather
threat continues during the day on friday as the cold front
moves through the region. the majority of the forecast area is
under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with a slight risk (level 2
of 5) for northwest pennsylvania. damaging wind gusts will be
the primary hazard on friday.

the airmass remains very moist ahead of the front so locally
heavy rain will remain a concern with any convection until it
clears. convection should remain disorganized or sporadic
enough to continue limiting the potential for flooding, though
flash flooding may be an issue in any training or repeated
storms over the same area.

we`ll dry out behind the cold front friday night into the weekend.
some low end precipitation chances return on sunday into early
next week as another cold front enters the region.

key message 2...
hot and humid conditions continue across the region today and
thursday before the aforementioned cold front glides east. highs
today will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the
forecast area. some lingering showers and/or cloud cover will
likely keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the mid 80s for
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. opted to
expand the heat advisory for this afternoon/early evening east
to include counties along and west of i-71. peak heat indices
will largely range between 95-100f this afternoon. some spots in
the advisory may not reach the 100f criteria, but given the
early season nature and lack of overnight relief heat-related
impacts are a concern.

highs will once again rise into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on
thursday with peak heat index values in the mid 90s. still some
uncertainty for if a heat advisory will be needed again on
thursday given lingering cloud cover and/or showers from
wednesday night`s convection. temperatures will fall behind cold
front on friday with cooler highs in the low to mid 80s
expected through the weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
currently in the wake of some overnight convection as of 11z
this morning, and the rest of the trailing stratiform
precipitation is waning. vfr for the most part at this point,
and expect it to stay there as the sun rises and the boundary
layer begins to mix. southwest winds today under 12kts will
increase to have gusts of 15-25kts later today and into tonight.
there is a potential for another complex of storms tonight, and
have that covered with prob30 for cle-mfd and east.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through friday. another period of non-
vfr conditions is possible in showers and thunderstorms sunday
afternoon.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 10-20kts prevail through early friday with wave
heights less than 2ft in the nearshore zones. friday, a cold
front sweeps across lake erie with winds becoming westerly
15-20kts and wave heights 2-3ft in the central and eastern
basins, less than 2ft in the western basin nearshore zones.
winds become southwesterly again for the weekend 10-20kts and
wave heights 2ft or less as high pressure builds over the ohio
valley.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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091
fxus63 kiwx 101019
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
619 am edt wed jun 10 2026

.key messages...

- a heat advisory is in effect for the area as heat indices
around 100 degrees will be common this afternoon. temperatures
reach 90 degrees and it`ll be humid. if you`re outside today,
be sure to take breaks and stay hydrated. it is possible that
heat indices reach 100 degrees again thursday in some spots.

- chances for severe weather exist tonight and again thursday
night. damaging wind, hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two
are possible for both severe weather threats.

- lower chances (20-30 percent) for showers and storms return
saturday night, with temps cooling into the low to mid 80s
with decreased humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 316 am edt wed jun 10 2026

a warm front pushes northeastward within this warm advection pattern
and that helps to continue the push of warm and humid air into the
area. low 90 degree forecast high temps as well as dew points
surpassing 70 degrees allows for 100 degree heat indices. this
covers a good portion of the us-24/i-69 corridor already where
there`s greater confidence of surpassing 100 degrees. given the
arrival of the warm front and if any debris clouds remain, there is
some lesser confidence of heat advisory criteria west of where the
headline is issued. with this level of heat and humidity though,
headline or not, it`s expected to be oppressive out there.
additionally, thursday could attain heat advisory levels again.
greatest confidence is east of i-69, but it will also depend on the
amount of debris clouds left over.

slight height rises occur during the day today as mid level ridging
moves through the area. this is expected to keep the area rain-free
for the most part as minimal forcing resides across the area until
this evening and the early overnight period. at this point, as a
trough over the western conus and northern plains gains a negative
tilt, forcing reaches this far east and cams light up with a surface
reflection of a squall line. timing still comes with some
uncertainty. will it be before 00z or after 00z that this line gets
into our area? there`s also some potential for some showers and
storms to ignite out in front of the main line. additionally,
there`s some potential for a second line to get into the area during
the overnight as well. this probably continues after 6z, but begins
to wane as we approach 12z thu. pockets of 30 kts of effective shear
as well as pockets of effective helicity totaling over 200
units will be possible as these systems approach our west. this
would indicate that damaging winds and some hail would be the
main threats, but should these systems become rooted to the
boundary there`s a chance some embedded rotation could occur if
they maintain themselves into the overnight. there is some
uncertainty with their maintenance as they advance eastward
during the overnight, though. spc has maintained a slight risk
for wednesday/night.

for thursday evening and night, a shortwave rounds the base of the
trough in the west and a surface low pressure is kicked
northeastward into the western great lakes. once again, modest
height rises/ mid level ridging appear to cap individual cell
formation during the day thursday, but we`ll be watching what
happens to our west in il. with ample instability reaching at least
1500 to 2500 and potentially as high as 3500 to 4500 j/kg of mucape
along with shear reaching 30+ kts, the atmosphere brings the
potential for a potent thunderstorm event thursday evening,
especially if thunderstorms hold off during the day and the
atmosphere remains untarnished. guidance appears to show a squall
line approaching with the potential to produce damaging wind and
maybe some hail and we`ll also have to watch for embedded vorticies
again with some low level turning present. spc has expanded the
enhanced risk of severe weather eastward some. this system
would have a run time of 9pm to 3am as advertised by the latest
nam.

cooler and drier air is expected to come in for saturday. however,
the trough that was to our west deepens into an upper low north of
the great lakes and this pushes another spoke of vorticity through
the area saturday night. this may be enough to cause showers and
thunderstorms with some instability and possibly some shear.
however, it`s during a little more of an unfavorable time, at
night.

finally by sunday, a return to cooler and drier weather takes hold.
highs in the 70s with dew points in the 50s are forecast for this
period.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 614 am edt wed jun 10 2026

the area is in weaker forcing to start this taf period. however, as
a trough rotates in the western conus towards the upper mississippi
valley, thunderstorms begin to erupt to our west later this
afternoon. plenty of disagreement still exists in model output,
but some type of squall line (or maybe a couple) looks to move
through this evening. damaging wind appears to be the most
possible threat, but hail cannot be ruled out. better low level
turning arrives around 00z or slightly thereafter, this
evening, so it is possible a tornado could form. will use some
prob30s for the thunderstorm chances this evening. gusty winds
between 20 and 30 kts will be possible today out of the
southwest ahead of the thunderstorms, but will couch them with
strong sustained winds for now. have left out llws for now given
tsra potential tonight, but that may need to be added into
future issuances.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory from noon edt /11 am cdt/ today to 8 pm edt /7
pm cdt/ this evening for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 101115
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
715 am edt wed jun 10 2026

.key messages...

- a heat advisory is in effect today for areas south of m-59. heat
indices peak near 100 degrees today and again thursday.

- there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and
overnight. isolated damaging winds are the main threat.

- there is a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms
thursday night. damaging winds, large hail, and spin-up tornadoes
are all possible.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

moisture rich environment this morning is resulting in ifr/lifr
conditions with low stratus and fog across much of southeast
michigan. humid airmass is reinforced across the area today with the
progression of a low pressure system off to the northwest. this will
maintain a degree of broken clouds that should improve somewhat as
daytime mixing improves. have adjusted tafs to a more pessimistic
improvement in the morning though with lower clouds holding on for a
few more hours this morning. vfr ceilings should eventually develop
this afternoon under a bkn ceiling. have introduced a prob30 this
evening for the potential convective system that will try push into
the area after 00z. may also need to keep an eye on convection that
can kick off prior to 00z if the cap can be overcome. thunderstorms
will be in play, but confidence is not high enough yet to time them
in the tafs.

d21/dtw convection...there will be potential for a convective system
or remnants of a convective system to arrive this evening. low
confidence in thunderstorms at this time. there remains low
potential for activity to develop prior to 00z as well.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet this morning. moderate this
afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 440 am edt wed jun 10 2026

discussion...

departing pv anomaly noted over northern lake huron this morning via
nt microphysics imagery, with most of the low level moisture
concentrated around the low in northern michigan. clearer conditions
observed over the southern half of the lower peninsula in part due
to a slow exit of nocturnal convection/cloud debris. strong
subsidence signature observed upstream, which will move over top a
moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s-low 70s) and afford
a brief window around sunrise for fog and/or low stratus
development. this should mix out quickly after day break in favor of
clearing skies.

weak mid level height rises expected to maintain subsident profiles
through much of the day. this allows plenty of solar insolation to
support high temperatures into the low 90s. dewpoint gradient from
north-south across the cwa thus responsible for the spread in heat
indices, ranging from upper 90s for the saginaw valley/thumb to 100
degrees south of m-59. subsidence also establishes a capping
inversion from 5.0-15.0 kft agl through much of the day, preventing
convection from disrupting diurnal heating. the heat advisory for
the detroit metro area thus remains unchanged.

next opportunity for strong-severe thunderstorms arrives this
evening-overnight. subset of solutions break the cap early this
evening, although this scenario seems less likely given the absence
of moisture advection/organized ascent. thunderstorm chances then
increase after 00z with the arrival of the first of a series of
potential decaying mcss overnight. all of these complexes develop
along the surface trough that moves from the plains into the upper
midwest today before propagating into the downstream instability
pool. first of these mcss is the most likely to pose a severe threat
to se michigan, but will struggle to maintain cold pool strength as
it encounters subsidence and waning daylight. if the complex holds
together, damaging winds are the greatest threat with hail as a
secondary threat. while instability struggles, environmental wind
fields will actually become more favorable overnight with increasing
sw low level jet winds and mid-level flow. thus cannot entirely rule
out low level rotation as hodographs gain curvature.

low predictability in additional shower/storm chances after the lead
mcs overnight, which depends on if instability can rebound over the
upper midwest this afternoon and generate more convection along the
surface trough. thus have pops continuing overnight, although with
limited severe potential as the first mcs clears out instability.

thursday begins in similar fashion to today as post-convective
subsidence lingers while mid-level heights build modestly. it will
be another day of heat and humidity with highs in the low 90s and
heat indices again touching 100 degrees (heat advisory threshold)
while a capping inversion limits thunderstorm potential during the
day. severe weather threat will be looming however as a squall line
develops along the ms river valley in the afternoon and accelerates
toward lower michigan thursday night. swody2 has se michigan split
between an enhanced risk west of i-75 and a slight risk east.
several factors have to align in order for the line to impact se
michigan at its full intensity, with a necessary condition being the
northward expansion of the instability axis into an otherwise
dry/stable column. with plenty of instability, this line has
potential to produce damaging winds over 70 mph, spin up tornadoes,
and large hail across se michigan with a time of arrival after
midnight. however, if advection is disrupted this could mean the
line falls apart before reaching us or even dives south of michigan
altogether.

the system`s cold front sweeps through early friday morning,
bringing a cooler pattern to the great lakes friday through next
week, reinforced by another cold frontal passage saturday night.
highs friday-saturday in the 80s will drop into the 70s sunday into
early next week. the next chance of showers/storms occurs with the
frontal passage.

marine...

a weak low pressure system will depart lake huron this morning,
leaving a frontal boundary stalled across the central great lakes.
very humid air in place will maintain pockets of dense fog across
the cool open waters of lake huron and a dense fog advisory is in
effect this morning. a lull in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected much of the day with light westerly winds that back to
southerly tonight as the stalled front lifts back northward. a
disturbance arrives tonight, bringing the next window for showers
and storms, some of which may be severe with wind gusts in excess of
50 kt and large hail. a similar setup will exist for thursday night
ahead of a cold front. this front will pass through early friday
morning, bringing an uptick in westerly winds in its wake as well as
a brief period of drier conditions to start the weekend.

hydrology...

a moisture-rich environment remains in place today and thursday with
multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the next
two days. progressive nature of expected thunderstorms generally
limits widespread flooding concerns, although heavy downpours with
rainfall rates over an inch per hour will be possible. localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but is mostly confined to low-
lying, urban, or flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for miz069-
070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...dense fog advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lhz361>363-
462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......tf
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.