Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
930
fxus61 kcle 211134
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
734 am edt thu may 21 2026

.what has changed...
not much has changed with this forecast update. we are still
expecting an unsettled and stormy memorial day weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) below average temperatures will linger through today and
tonight.

2) multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
impact the holiday weekend. heavy rainfall with totals of 1-1.5
inches may result in localized flooding.

3) summer-like temperatures will return by the middle of next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cool canadian high pressure system will build down across the
great lakes today into tonight from southern ontario. sky
conditions will remain mostly cloudy to partly cloudy due to
high and mid level clouds streaming in from the lower ohio
valley. a cool and brisk northeast flow today will keep high
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for most of the area.
overnight low temperatures tonight will drop back down into the
middle to upper 40s.

key message 2...
the beginning of a wet and unsettled weather pattern will start
to impact the region later on friday. a stalled frontal boundary
located near the lower ohio valley will start to lift northward
as a warm front on friday. rain chances in the form of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase from south to
north friday afternoon and evening. likely to definite pops will
overspread the area friday night. isolated thunder will be
possible but no organized severe convection is expected at this
time. high pops between 80 and 100 percent is expected to
continue into saturday across the area. high pops will lingering
into saturday evening with a gradual tapering off of rain
chances from west to east during the overnight. a surface trough
will linger over the region sunday and monday with scattered to
likely pops sunday afternoon through monday afternoon. overall
rainfall totals friday through monday will average between 1
and 1.5 inches with isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible.
this period of heavy rainfall may lead to some isolated
localized flooding or elevated water rises on area streams and
rivers. temperatures this weekend into memorial day will
eventually climb into the 70s to near 80 degrees.

key message 3...
by middle of next week, an upper level ridge will develop over
the eastern great lakes region tuesday into wednesday. high
moisture content will linger underneath the ridge with
temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s areawide.
isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection will be possible
through the middle of next week given the tropical like airmass.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
a few lingering showers and ceilings in the 4-6k foot range
towards central oh, south of mfd and cak, early this morning.
this lingering activity will continue to gradually exit to the
south-southeast this morning, with vfr conditions and just some
mid to high-level clouds then persisting through the tafs. winds
will remain northeast through the taf period... increasing to
10-15kt by this afternoon, with some gusts to 25kt near and
southwest of lake erie, including at tol, fdy, cle and eri.
winds will slacken and turn a bit more easterly tonight,
especially away from the lakeshore.

outlook...non-vfr expected at times in rain late friday through
saturday night. scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-
vfr conditions possible again on sunday and monday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions are expected through saturday, as a
tight pressure gradient develops between high pressure sliding
to the north and northeast of lake erie and low pressure
approaching from the west-southwest. the weak low pressure is
expected to track over or near the lake saturday into saturday
night, with a weak cold front crossing the lake sunday night.

north-northeast winds 15-20kt with waves mainly 2-4 feet this
morning will shift out of a more true northeast direction and
increase a bit further to 20-25kt this afternoon and evening.
waves will increase to 4-7 feet, especially in the central
basin. winds remain elevated between 15-25kt while gradually
veering more east-northeast on friday, east friday night, and
then more offshore out of the south into saturday. the largest
waves will gradually become focused farther west and offshore
later friday into saturday. winds will gradually diminish from
west to east saturday and saturday night as low pressure moves
through with waves gradually subsiding as well. small craft
advisories and beach hazards statements are in effect for all of
our nearshore waters and adjacent counties beginning 12z/8am
this morning, and have been extended in time and expire from
east to west friday evening through saturday morning as winds
shift offshore and diminish. we will need to watch the south-
southeast winds for localized enhancement and perhaps a renewed
small craft advisory east of cleveland on saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through saturday morning for ohz003-
007-009-010.
beach hazards statement through friday evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through friday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt friday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
625 am edt thu may 21 2026

.key messages...

- cooler, breezy, and dry conditions continue today with highs
only in the 60s.

- next chance for rain and a few storms arrive later friday
afternoon into the evening. while thunderstorms are possible,
severe storms are not expected. 0.50" to 1.00" of rainfall
will be possible friday into saturday.

- gradual warming and humid conditions with highs in the 70s to
low 80s with periods of showers and thunderstorms this
holiday weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 226 am edt thu may 21 2026

one last dry weather day today with shortwave ridging in place,
still remaining cooler than normal values with highs only in
the 60s. breezy to gusty easterly winds today with gusts around
25 mph. on friday, a trough moving in from the southwest will
bring chances of rain showers into the area from the south and
will push northward through the day with moisture advecting
northward. surface dew points will go from the 40s today and
will quickly moisten up on friday and increase into the 50s and
60s by friday evening. further increases will make for humid
conditions on saturday with values into the upper 60s to low
70s. saturday will also be breezy to gusty with slightly higher
gusts from the southeast than today with gusts up to around 30
mph. wpc has our area in a marginal risk of exceeding flash
flood guidance late friday into saturday. total rainfall
accumulations will run about 0.50" to 0.75" for areas northwest
of about i-69 corridor and range about 0.75" to 1.00" southeast
of the corridor. so a good hearty rainfall is expected with the
very moist influx into the disturbance.

this rainfall and disturbance will also be accompanied by
warming temperatures for friday into the weekend. highs into the
mid 60s to low 70s on friday and then 70s on saturday and
warmer yet with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on sunday into
the memorial day holiday. periods of rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms expected through the weekend and into the middle
of next week. best chances for thunderstorms to mix in will be
the afternoon hours each day. severe thunderstorms are not
expected through this forecast period. the holiday weekend still
does not look like a complete washout with breaks in the
showers. however, fairly difficult to pinpoint where and when
the convective showers will exactly develop.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 624 am edt thu may 21 2026

vfr conditions expected through this taf period. easterly winds
with gusts around 20 kts today.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 211016
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
616 am edt thu may 21 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool through friday.

- rain returns by friday night and continues into saturday morning.

- a little milder this weekend, with chances for thunderstorms
saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions prevail today and tonight as the resident environment
maintains dry and stable conditions within the lowest levels. some
intevals of high based cloud will funnel through at times, with a
particular focus across fnt/mbs per latest satellite trends.
existing east-northeast wind south of expansive high pressure
anchored over the northern great lakes will offer some modest gust
potential during peak heating.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 407 am edt thu may 21 2026

discussion...

broad isentropic descent around the periphery of a sprawling
anticyclone over the northern great lakes maintains dry and stable
conditions today into tomorrow. the surface high over lake superior
slowly migrates east over the next 36 hours, maintaining light
northeast wind that veers to easterly on friday. cool air within
this pattern holds temperatures on the lower side of average, with
highs in the 60s for most of the area and 50s near the lakeshores. a
good amount of sun this morning gives way to high clouds arriving
this afternoon within the upper jet entrance region. lows tonight
settle into the 40s with the northeast gradient wind persisting.

a convective shortwave over central tx this morning ejects northeast
today, carrying a humid air mass through the tennessee and ohio
valleys that reaches the southern great lakes late friday. initially
dry mid and low levels are favored to hold rain chances at bay until
early evening or after sunset, then rain will spread in from the
south as isentropic ascent on the north flank of the wave gains
traction. the inbound air mass is characterized by 850mb dew point
of 10 to 12c and pwat between 1.25 and 1.50", so a round of soaking
rain is likely friday night through early saturday. lapse rates
through the column during this period are weak and instability will
be minimal, so thunderstorms are not currently anticipated.

the steadiest rain is expected to move out by midday saturday, then
additional scattered to numerous showers are likely into saturday
afternoon. there is still noteworthy variance among ensemble
solutions regarding surface low strength and track on saturday. more
progressive solutions tend to bring in drier air and an earlier end
to precip, while slower solutions keep a higher coverage of showers
and some thunderstorms around even into the evening. will maintain
40-70% pops with respect for the mid-level wave tracking overhead,
but this period may be subject to revisions.

another upper wave passes through on sunday bringing another window
for showers and thunderstorms. a warming trend follows next week
with good consensus among grand ensemble 500mb progs in depicting an
omega blocking ridge setting up over ontario by mid to late week.
governing subsident environment during this period favors mainly dry
conditions, but placement near the edge of the cap brings low end
potential for occasional showers and storms.

marine...

high pressure centered over the northern great lakes will hold
through tonight. winds will be out of northeast today and largely
below 20 knots. the exception will be lake erie where fetch down the
long axis of the lake will locally increase winds and waves in the
western basin, and a long duration small craft advisory has been
issued. the next low pressure system will lift into the region from
the south late friday into saturday which will bring the next
potential for showers and thunderstorms. winds continue out of the
northeast on friday but will increase as the gradient tightens
between the existing high and approaching low. gusts may reach 30
knots through that period.

hydrology...

a round of steady soaking rainfall is forecast to spread across
southeast mi from south to north friday evening into saturday
morning as low pressure lifts in from the mid mississippi valley.
additional showers and some thunderstorms are possible saturday
afternoon but carry less certainty at this time. forecast rainfall
totals range generally between a half inch and 1 inch during this
event. overall dry conditions for much of the area over the
past 30 days suggests the potential for flooding is low.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt saturday
for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......drk
hydrology....tf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.