Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
890
fxus61 kcle 111901
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
301 pm edt tue aug 11 2026

.what has changed...
a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of
northwest and north-central ohio until 8 pm, mainly for damaging
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. a flood watch remains in effect for
portions of north-central and northeast ohio into wednesday morning
as torrential rainfall and isolated flash flooding also remain
possible.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through
thursday night. the greatest potential for strong to severe
storms and isolated flooding will be this afternoon and evening
across portions of northwest and north-central ohio.

2) unsettled weather will return saturday night through
sunday as a low pressure systems brings another round of showers
and storms to the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a loosely-
organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving east into
portions of northwest and north-central ohio this afternoon.
for the most part, peak wind gusts within this cluster are
generally below 50 mph and non-severe, supported by weak mlcape
around 1000 j/kg and gradually warming cloud tops, though
isolated severe wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain possible
into this evening given the strong shear in place, especially
across the severe thunderstorm watch area which is in place
until 8 pm. otherwise, main concern will be the moderate to
heavy rain associated with the stratiform convection approaching
the area, with radar estimating rates in excess of 2 inches per
hour which could result in minor/nuisance flooding given the
already- saturated ground across much of the area. a flood watch
remains in effect into wednesday morning. showers and storms
should exit east of the area by around 10/11 pm, with some
patches of fog possible overnight.

the next chance for showers and thunderstorms appears to be
wednesday night into thursday as a weak trough slides south
across the area. not anticipating anything severe, though could
see a few stronger storms with small hail or wind gusts
approaching 50 mph, especially across northeast ohio. this
trough is expected to stall near or just south of the us-30
corridor thursday afternoon or evening. another wave of low
pressure will move east along this boundary thursday night, with
heavy rain being the primary concern. there remains some
uncertainty with the boundary placement (could be further south)
and therefore the flooding threat.

key message 2...
the next period for unsettled weather will be saturday night
into sunday as a low pressure system moves east through the
great lakes, extending a cold front across the area sunday
night. will continue to monitor the threat for any stronger
storms, especially sunday afternoon with the latest guidance
suggesting a potent 700 mb shortwave of 30 to 35 knots entering
the area.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
convection is moving into western ohio currently and is on a
southeasterly track. expecting impacts to most terminals through
00z this evening, with less confidence in impacts with eastern
terminals. as thunderstorms move over the terminals, ifr
conditions with strong, west to southwesterly winds are likely
for an hour or two. behind the thunderstorms, conditions will
likely become non-vfr as ceilings drop. fog is expected across
much of the region beginning around 06z, with patchy fog closer
for kcle and keri. lifr visibility is possible for kcak and kyng
for a few hours early tomorrow morning before dissipating after
13z. low vfr to mvfr ceilings are possible after the fog
dissipates through midday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms thursday
into thursday night. non- vfr possible again in showers and
thunderstorms saturday afternoon into sunday.

&&

.marine...
showers and thunderstorms are possible across lake erie this
afternoon and evening as a feature moves south of the lake. strong
winds and frequent lightning is possible as this moves through.
conditions will improve late this evening and winds will be
generally out of the southwest at 5-10 knots. by late thursday night
into friday morning, winds will shift to be out of the north-
northeast at around 10-15 knots. a warm front will lift north across
the lake late saturday evening and winds will shift to be out of the
south-southeast at 10-15 knots. a cold front will follow sunday
night and winds will shift to be out of the northwest at 10-15
knots. waves through the week will generally be less than 2 feet
through thursday evening, then building to around 1-3 feet through
the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch through wednesday morning for ohz003-006>011-
017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
261
fxus63 kiwx 111657
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1257 pm edt tue aug 11 2026

.key messages...

- strong to severe storms, accompanied by damaging winds, looks
to continue and spread further into the rest of the area by
early afternoon into this evening. all threats are possible
however the main threats will be wind and hail as well as
heavy rainfall.

- the potential for flooding will increase into this afternoon
due to both recent heavy rainfall and additional heavy
rainfall through this evening. a flood watch is currently in
effect for most of the area.

- rain chances may linger through the week, especially south of us-
30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1122 am edt tue aug 11 2026

will focus on the near term for this discussion with a rather
busy morning with the continuation of convective activity along
a boundary draped from the west out over northern il and then
in a southeasterly orientation into our southern portions of the
cwa. the activity has currently been developing along this
boundary and training over the same areas which has increased
the threat of flash flooding and areal flooding in those areas.
this will only be exasperated further with the expectation of
the storms continuing across that area into the this evening
with periods of heavy rainfall to continue. a flash flood watch
is in effect until 8 pm edt for all of the indiana and ohio
counties in our cwa. also, with a large convective bow structure
sitting northern il and pushing eastward into the area this
will help push convection further north and southward from the
boundary expanding the areal coverage to the rest of the cwa
into this late afternoon and early evening.
showers/thunderstorms may continue beyond that especially the
southerly half of the cwa into the overnight hours.

with the very moist airmass in place and plenty of instability
ranging from around 1500 j/kg to the eastern portions of the
area to around 4500 j/kg for our west and southwest portions of
the area. bulk shear values of 40 to 50 kts with even a few
pockets around 60 kts pushing into the area from the west with
the mcs disturbance currently over northern il. the increased
shear looks to keep the things more organized and will be
interesting to see how this evolves as it pushes through the
area. all threats are on the table but damaging winds and the
heavy rainfall seems to be the main expected threats at this
time, but with marginal sr helicity values around 100 m2/s2
tornadic spin-ups would be possible especially along the main
bowing structure and potential bookend vorticies. the helicity
values do look to peak later this afternoon in the rear of this
bowing structure so will need to watch out for storms that may
develop in it`s wake later today for the potential for spin-ups.
spc does currently have a majority of our cwa, especially the
southwestern half under an enhanced risk for severe storms
today and a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the
entire cwa until 5 pm edt this evening.

the main boundary pushes southward tonight and will see the
shower/thunderstorm activity do the same with the better chances
for mainly our southern portions of the cwa (mainly south of
us-30 and most likely south of us-24). spc does have a marginal
risk for severe storms for our far southern portions of the cwa.

with this stagnant ring of fire/zonal flow pattern to continue
through the end of the week and into the weekend periods of
showers/storms will be possible each day across the area with
afternoons and evening periods with the greater chances.
seasonable temperatures will also remain the theme. however, will
be watching for ridging from the south to push northward which
will make for warmer temperatures and more humid conditions but
still a decent amount of uncertainty on the longer range
forecast.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1255 pm edt tue aug 11 2026

maturing convective complex and bow echo to move through ksbn
17-18z and 18-19z with a period of lifr/ifr and potentially
40-50 kt or more wind gusts, best chances at ksbn where the line
may be more balanced. trailing stratiform rain/embedded thunder
then follows for an hour or two before drying and eventual
improvement back into vfr. light/calm winds and moist
conditions along the trailing boundary likely support stratus/br
filling in later tonight into tomorrow morning otherwise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
897
fxus63 kdtx 111946
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
346 pm edt tue aug 11 2026

.key messages...

- isolated thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon and
evening with a low probability for severe weather and localized
heavy rainfall.

- the potential exists for showers and thunderstorms to develop both
wednesday and thursday.

- drier conditions develop friday through most of saturday.

- renewed chance of storms and potential for heavy rainfall by
saturday night into sunday.

&&

.discussion...

fast west-northwest upper flow remains directed across the great
lakes tonight through thursday as the synoptic pattern holds
relatively stagnant over much of the continent. this maintains a
modestly unstable environment with periodic chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity each day, but details on timing and placement
will continue to be governed by smaller scale perturbations within
the upper flow. thus, this part of the forecast continues to carry
relatively low confidence for the local area. the greater threat of
severe weather and heavy rainfall will continue to be favored over
the ohio valley through midweek.

for the near term, a mature mcv is driving decaying convection
across northern oh along a cape gradient reinforced by remnant
outflow from a morning mcs. the orientation of this gradient and
corfidi vectors favor further ese propagation to continue along this
corridor to our south. the northern edge of remnant convection is
curling across areas south of i-94 with an isolated threat of a
gusty winds to 40 mph and localized heavier rainfall, but this
threat is rapidly sinking south of the border. otherwise, stratiform
rain passes across areas south of i-96 over the next few hours with
upstream observations indicating potential for a few embedded
lightning strikes.

after the mcs departs, outflow on the northern flank meets a diffuse
stationary front positioned across southern lower mi and may provide
the trigger for additional isolated to widely scattered smaller
scale and disorganized convection south of i-69 the rest of the
afternoon. the thick cirrus shield associated with the mcs has
dampened afternoon destabilization, but latest mesoanalysis
advertises 500 to 1000 j/kg of mlcape given sfc dew points in the
lower 70s and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 c/km. the main
window for convection will be through about 8pm with any lingering
activity tapering off by 10pm. included a patchy fog mention tonight
as the front lingers in the area with higher humidity and clearing
skies.

subtle height falls on wednesday cause a weak surface
trough/convergence axis to sink south from northern lower into the
saginaw valley and thumb vicinity during the afternoon. this may be
enough to trigger convection, and with the active jet overhead there
will be a threat for isolated strong to severe wind or hail as well
as a localized downpour. hi-res ml guidance favors a window between
3pm and 9pm for any stronger convection. the favored area for
convection on thursday looks to again set up south of the area
toward the ohio valley.

by late thursday into friday, the large scale pattern will begin to
evolve with the western conus ridge amplifying over the rockies.
surface high pressure builds across northern ontario on friday then
migrates south into the great lakes to provide more tranquil and
slightly cooler weather through most of saturday. this is followed
by a more potent system set to track across the great lakes on
sunday. its warm front arrives late saturday, bringing a chance of
showers and storms by late evening. ensemble qpf output indicates a
threat for heavy rainfall somewhere in the vicinity - 13z nbm
advertises 30% for over 1 inch for parts of lower mi by 00z mon.

&&

.marine...

weak wind fields will remain in place through thursday as a frontal
boundary hangs around the great lakes region before dropping south
thursday night. periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms will
persist through that timeframe. any strong thunderstorms will have
the potential to produce hail and winds in excess of 35 knots. with
the lighter winds, there are some weak signals for patchy dense fog
over lake huron at times, through confidence remains low.

a large area of high pressure builds into northern ontario thursday
night, allowing north-northeast winds to increase on friday. winds
are expected to reach at least 20 knots over southern lake huron,
which may allow waves to approach 4 feet over the southern basin.
the ridge extending from the high slides through friday evening,
supporting lighter winds into saturday morning. southerly winds will
then peak out around 20 knots ahead of a cold front saturday night,
with winds shifting to west on sunday behind the front.

&&

.hydrology...

slow-moving thunderstorms embedded within a broader area of light
rain will continue across areas south of i-94 through 5pm, bringing
a threat for localized heavy rainfall in excess of 1 inch.
additional isolated thunderstorms are possible to develop this
afternoon and evening, mainly south of i-69. these storms would also
be slow-moving and pose a threat of localized heavy rainfall and
isolated totals up to around 1 inch. minor flooding in urban and poor
drainage areas is possible through this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 138 pm edt tue aug 11 2026

aviation...

a line of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern indiana, with the
bulk of the severe activity expected to remain south of the
terminals this afternoon and evening. the northern portions of the
line, however, may redevelop with frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes and an isolated strong to severe damaging wind threat. this
activity is most likely to impact dtw/det/yip, but may reach as far
north as fnt. time of arrival is between roughly 19z and 00z.
outside of thunder chances, upstream cloud heights have fallen to
between 1.0 and 3.0 kft agl, which will work east with the
thunderstorm complex. light east-southeast flow has held on longer
than projected, and will likely hold until the mcv comes through
before switching to the southwest. clearing skies atop wet ground
and calm winds tonight may lead to radiative fog development
wednesday morning.

d21/dtw convection... the northern edge of a thunderstorm complex
clips southern portions of the d21 airspace. the main concern is
frequent cloud to ground lightning, but there is an isolated
damaging wind threat as well. timing is most likely between 20z and
23z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.

* moderate for ceilings 5000 feet or less through 00z.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......sf
hydrology....tf
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.