Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1212 am est tue nov 3 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) warming trend tuesday and wednesday.

2) showers expected ahead of and with a cold front wednesday into
wednesday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
expansive high pressure will drift off the mid atlantic coastal
region providing the southern great lakes with deep southerly flow
in the next couple of days. with 850mb temperatures climbing into
the lower teens with warm air advection, expecting high temperatures
10-20 degrees above normal for tuesday and wednesday, possibly
pushing record highs in places tuesday. wednesday should lag a bit
with the potential introduction of showers into the region ahead of
the cold front marching in from the west.

key message 2...
deep upper low will push from the southern high plains towards the
upper mississippi valley, driving a pacific cold front west to east
into the cwa. line of showers moves into the western zones after 15z
wednesday. looking at the low level f-gen for this system, it
appears the system may turn weakly frontolytic as it moves through
the cwa wednesday, with the line possibly becoming more scattered as
it does so. this would correlate with the occluding nature of the
surface and upper level low pressure systems, but still expect
precipitation for all zones of the cwa and will need to watch for
the development of surface waves along the cold front. temperatures
back down towards normal for the end of the week and into the
weekend with continued upper level troughing over the cwa and off
and on rain chances during this time as well.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
a band of lower clouds and some light showers is lifting
northeast across the area right now, bringing a period of mvfr
ceilings with some occasional ifr also observed. drier air and
higher ceilings will lift in from the south-southwest this
morning, allowing conditions to return to vfr. vfr is then
expected to persist through the remainder of the tafs. the main
challenge with this set of tafs was timing the improvement to
vfr, and some amds may be needed early this morning. south-
southeast winds in the 5-10kt range will shift south-southwest
and increase slightly to 8-14kt with some 20-25kt gusts tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
offshore winds 10-20kts through early wednesday ahead of a cold
front will mean wave heights increase progressively away from shore.
in general, 2ft or less for the nearshore zones, and 2-4ft in the
open water zones should be expected during this time. a cold front
late wednesday/wednesday night turns winds more southwesterly 10-
20kts through thursday, with wave heights in the nearshore zones
east of cleveland now in the 1-3ft range while wave height forecast
s for the other zones remains the same.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sullivan
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1153 pm est mon nov 2 2026

.key messages...

- some patchy drizzle or light rain showers/sprinkles continue
at times this evening.

- much better chances for rain (80-100%) arrive late tuesday
night into early wednesday. rainfall amounts are generally
expected to be one quarter of an inch or less.

- highs will be well into the 70s on tuesday with breezy
conditions but otherwise highs remain around 60 the rest of
the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 pm est mon nov 2 2026

broad advective forcing continues across the region with water vapor
imagery and near term hi-res guidance initializations depicting
next weak short wave across the mid ms valley. this should
allow for a few more waves of drizzle and possibly a few light
rain showers this evening but most locations will be dry or
experience just trace amounts. as mentioned in previous
discussion, guidance has struggled today with temps with a
maintenance in blended guidance of a warm bias. extensive low
clouds and occasional very light drizzle have resulted in
temperatures hovering from the 55 to 60 degree range for most
locations. temperatures are expected to show little movement
through the night tonight as warm advection offsets most of
diurnal tendencies. overnight, the aforementioned lead short
wave should shift east of the area allowing for mid/upper level
height rises to build back in from the west.

the attention for tuesday will be on evolution of large scale
upper trough, and in particular the upper height minimum across
the southern plains that will lift north as an upper jet streak
progresses through the downstream portion of this trough.
moisture transport will steadily increase in advance of this
trough tonight into tuesday, but with better mid/upper dynamics
displaced well west/southwest, will maintain a dry forecast
through the day. windy and warm conditions will be the main
story on tuesday as near term buffer soundings suggest some
potential of tapping into 30 to 35 knot top of boundary layer
flow across northwest/portions of north central indiana during
the afternoon hours. thickening mid cloud and moistening low/mid
levels could result in mixing heights not being maximized
however. based on magnitude of low level thermals alone, highs
should approach record levels in the middle 70s for tuesday.

categorical pops have been maintained for tuesday night into
wednesday am due to the combination of initial llj forcing
followed by passage of cold front. while cannot completely rule
out an isolated storm with some very weak elevated instability
tuesday night, any instability of note will likely be confined
well south across the lower ms valley. with stronger upper
dynamics expected to bypass the area to the southwest/south,
frontal convergence fields are a bit weaker across the local
area with a camp of guidance still suggesting more limited
rainfall amounts. given progressive nature of llj axis and low
level baroclinic zone, this does not look to be a significant
hydro event.

dry slot punches into the area from southwest to northeast on
wednesday, withs some additional rain showers possible
thursday night through friday as better moisture profiles wrap
around the slowly eastward meandering upper low. some lake
enhancement is expected with the rain showers, but instability
depths are quite limited without any push of dramatically colder
mid level air.

the large scale pattern will favor additional influence from an
eastern pacific jet streak in closing off another system across
central conus for the weekend but confidence in timing these
additional rain chances is low. given expected weak
baroclinicity in this pattern and preference to systems more
vertically stacked in nature, no significant rainfall events
are anticipated through the next 7 days. temperatures should
trend near normal by this weekend into early next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1149 pm est mon nov 2 2026

updated the 06z tafs to reflect the lingering ifr ceilings which
are still anticipated to improve within the critical taf
period. observations over north-central indiana depict improving
conditions as the preexisting low-level moisture plume lifts
northward in response an upper-level low lifts through oklahoma.
rain chances are best just beyond this taf period. llws is
increasingly marginal based on time- height cross sections, but
this carries on largely unchanged (delayed with the ceiling
improvement).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 am tuesday to 7 am est wednesday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1157 pm est mon nov 2 2026

.key messages...

- mild tuesday with near record high temperatures in the mid to upper
70s.

- breezy tuesday with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

- mild conditions continue wednesday with increasing potential for
light rain.

&&

.aviation...

elongated area of low pressure over central conus continues to
govern conditions across the airspace overnight into tuesday.
widespread mvfr ceilings have started to flirt with ifr, with a more
cohesive plume of ifr upstream and lifting into se michigan. dry air
however is observed over indiana and will begin to eat into the ifr
ceilings by 09z at dtw/det/yip up to mbs by around 12z. models are
aggressive in drying the low levels with the expectation for low vfr
ceilings by daybreak for most of the airspace. arrival of the
surface warm front tuesday morning veers winds to the southwest with
strengthening gradient bringing sustained wind speeds toward 15
knots by mid-day. low vfr continues to erode through the day,
resulting in at least partial clearing by afternoon.

for dtw...mvfr ceilings have been flirting with ifr over the past
couple of hours, with a broader area of ifr upstream that is on
track to reach dtw around 06z. drier air is pushing north into
indiana, with time of arrival tools and model guidance suggesting an
aggressive drying trend to bring ceilings back to mvfr/low vfr
between 09z-12z. ceilings are then forecast to lift above 5000 feet
by tuesday afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings 5000 ft or less tonight. moderate tuesday
morning becoming low tuesday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 331 pm est mon nov 2 2026

discussion...

a large upper level trough will move into the plains today and will
be the focus of the weather locally for the next several days. it
slows it`s eastward progress today as additional shortwave energy
both from the southern stream and diving southward down the backside
of the trough helps try to close off the base of the trough tonight.
the system will first present us with a few very warm days with near
record highs on tuesday ahead of the trough. the stacked trough then
cuts off and slowly drifts over the area through the latter half of
the week present a few chances for rain heading into the weekend and
cooler temps, albeit near normal for early november.

the upper level ridge axis crossed the area last night opening the
door for southerly flow to kick up and begin the warm advection
process. combine this with heights building aloft and even with the
wealth of cloud cover, temps will climb into the 60s today and low
to mid 70s on tuesday as the low level jet really ramps up. 850mb
temps will rise into the low teens after being around 9c today.
record highs in the mid to upper 70s look to be possible. winds will
be another issue on tuesday as the low level jet around 35 knots
down to 1500ft could be mixed to the surface. soundings and
probabilistic guidance supports gusts to around 30 knots.

we could see some light rain showers as the warm front lifts through
the area tonight. we`ve seen some blips on radar through the day
which is all virga, but the front will offer better support but
location of the frontal showers this afternoon lines up pretty well
with hires models so best chance for any precip would be over the
saginaw valley and thumb with lesser chances to the se. slight
chance to chance pops will continue to cover this portion of the
event. chances go down on tuesday as we get solidly in the warm
sector while the warm front lights up and expands across the u.p.
and northern great lakes.

closed and occluding upper low then lifts into the upper ms valley
tuesday night into wednesday which will push the moisture axis
through lower mi bringing widespread rain to the area through the
day. cold front pushes through early wednesday night bringing
another line of showers through the area before we dry out some the
rest of the night. dewpoints will rise to around 60f and pwats climb
to around 1.3 inches so there will be some moisture to work with.
qpf looks lean though without greater forcing as the instability
gets held southeast of us and the low tracks to the north. looking
for generally around a quarter inch.

dry slotting in between short wave troughs rotating around the
broader low, will lead to a drier day thursday. thermal trough will
be over the area with 850mb temps down to 4-6c which will knock
highs back to around 60f during the day, which is still above
normal. the longwave trough itself then drifts over the region on
friday with residual moisture axis bringing another round of light
rain or drizzle through the day.

marine...

broad low pressure over the plains will consolidate over the western
great lakes late tuesday. a warm front passes northward across the
region tonight with southerly wind speed increasing through early
tuesday. the inbound warm air will promote increasing low-level
stability over the lakes and prevent higher winds from mixing down,
but by early afternoon gusts as high as 25 to 30 kt are expected
over the open waters of lake huron. given limited fetch, the
nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt. similar
conditions persist into wednesday with slight backing to wind
direction over southern lake huron which may necessitate a small
craft advisory along the thumb shoreline. a cold front brings high
coverage of light showers across the area late in the day and into
wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind the front. the
weakening low slowly meanders across the western great lakes on
thursday before a stronger cold front tracks southward across the
region on friday. this brings moderate north and northeast winds
that shift northwest by saturday.

climate...

record high max temperatures for november 3rd:

detroit: 76 degrees (set in 2015)
flint: 79 degrees (set in 2015)
saginaw: 74 degrees (set in 2015)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...drk
marine.......tf
climate......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.