Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
036
fxus61 kcle 271235
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 am est tue jan 27 2026

.what has changed...
forecast confidence has increased in wind chill values below -15
f tonight, so a cold weather advisory was issued for the entire
area from 7 pm this evening until 11 am wednesday morning. the
forecast has trended colder for friday and saturday, and some
climate sites may see record cold low temperatures.

&&

.key messages...
1 dangerous wind chills as low as -27 f will bring significant
cold exposure risks to the entire area this morning.

2) light snow is expected areawide today, with some blowing
snow west of i-71 and along the lakeshore. the light snow
accumulations and blowing snow may result in travel impacts.

3) prolonged cold is expected through the weekend creating
elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

4) generally limited snow chances after today.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
current observations (as of 07z) have surface temperatures
around 3 to -4 f with wind chills generally around -15 to -25.
the lowest temperatures and wind chills are likely to occur over
the next couple hours before gradually warming to above criteria
by later this morning. an extreme cold warning remains in effect
across the entire cwa through 11 am.

key message 2...
an upper-level trough and associated surface low will swing
southeast across the great lakes region today. snow associated
with this system will come in a couple waves. first, with
isentropic lift ahead of the front this morning, and then
with and behind the cold front itself. the snow this morning will
likely come as steady light snow for a few hours between
13-16z. this snow will mainly impact east of i-77, but could
briefly extend as far west as toledo-mansfield area. even though
snow will be light, roads should become snow-covered.

additional snow is expected along and behind the cold front late
this morning into the early afternoon. steep low-level lapse
rates and weak instability will contribute to snow becoming more
showery with some snow squall potential east of i-77 where low-
level frontogenesis will be at its greatest. conditions will be
more variable during this time frame, with a slightly better
chance at brief low visibility and moderate snow rates.

in total most of the area will likely see at least of a dusting
of light, powdery snow, with 1 to 2 inches expected along and
east of i-77, where snow is likely to be most persistent.
localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches could be possible in
the higher terrain in the primary snow belt, where orographic
lift and some lake enhancement is expected. impacts to roads
and travel are likely.

outside of the snow accumulations, southwest gusty winds will
lead to some blowing and drifting of the deep snowpack today,
especially west of i-71 where the strongest wind gusts of 30-40
mph will be possible this morning. folks that live west of i-71
should be prepared for some impacts to the commute this morning
from the blowing and drifting.

key message 3...
very cold temperatures continue tonight into wednesday morning,
though perhaps not quite as cold as this morning. confidence is
quite high in much the area dipping below -15 wind chills
tonight, so a cold weather advisory has been issued for the
entire area from 7 pm this evening through 11 am wednesday

prolonged cold continues through the rest of this week and into
the weekend with air temperatures regularly sinking below zero
and wind chills in the -10 to -20 range. day time high
temperatures will struggle to exceed 10 degrees, and will
finally "warm up" to the mid to upper 10s by sunday. coldest
temperatures and wind chills are likely to be thursday night
into friday morning, and again friday night into saturday
morning when wind chills could dip down to -20 and low
temperatures could break daily records. additional cold weather
headlines are likely.

this ongoing and continued stretch of cold ambient temperatures
averaging below 16 degrees will bring increased risk of
infrastructure impacts due to the cold, such as burst pipes,
water main breaks, and dead batteries. the prolonged nature of
the cold will also pose a continued and increasing risk of
exposure to more vulnerable populations.

key message 4...
with a frozen lake and very cold, dry synoptic weather pattern,
only small chances for light snow exist beyond today`s system.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
light snow will spread across all terminals this morning as a
clipper system passes through the great lakes. this will bring
cigs and visibilities down to mvfr. a burst of heavy snow is
possible along the cold front this afternoon which could bring
ifr or lower for about 30 minutes or so. used tempo groups to
try and time this. otherwise, the snow will mainly be light with
areas of blowing snow too given the deep snowpack. conditions
will improve this evening and tonight as the snow ends, but
lake effect snow showers will linger longer at keri (until 06z
or so).

sw winds will gust to 25-35 knots at times today before turning
wnw and decreasing to 10-15 knots this evening and tonight.

outlook...additional periods of snow with non-vfr are expected
through this saturday. greatest chances exist in ne oh and nw
pa, where periodic lake-effect snow downwind of mainly ice-covered
lake erie should occur.

&&

.marine...
frequent wind shifts and variable speeds are expected on ice covered
lake erie this week as a series of weak systems impact the region.
sw winds will increase to 20-30 knots this morning ahead of a
clipper and associated cold front. winds will veer to w behind the
front this afternoon and evening, turning sw again tonight and
decreasing to 10-15 knots. sw winds will increase to 15-25 knots
wednesday ahead of another clipper and cold front that moves through
wednesday night veering winds to w while decreasing to 10-15 knots.
w winds of 10-15 knots will continue thursday, becoming nw at 5-10
knots thursday night and friday. winds will turn nnw by saturday and
slightly increase to 10-15 knots.

as mentioned, lake erie is now 100% ice covered. the latest ice
analysis shows that the majority of the ice is thin, but the deep
arctic air entrenched across the region will allow the ice to slowly
thicken through this weekend. the fluctuating wind speeds and
directions may lead to some shifting of the ice fields, but as the
ice continues to thicken, it will become more anchored in place.

&&

.climate...
record low temperatures are possible on thursday and friday.
here are the daily record low minimum temperatures for january
29 and 30th:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-29 -9(1963) -14(1977) -17(1873) -13(1977) -12(1977) -10(1977)
01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme cold warning until 11 am est this morning for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
wednesday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
pa...extreme cold warning until 11 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
wednesday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
822
fxus63 kiwx 270951
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
451 am est tue jan 27 2026

.key messages...

- areas of blowing and drifting snow today.

- lake effect snow showers (1-3") today into this evening along
and north of the indiana toll road.

- wind chills as low as 20 below zero this morning. periodic
wind chills of around 15 to 20 below are also possible at
times through the remainder of the work week.

- additional lake effect snow chances wednesday through friday,
with higher chances on friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 220 am est tue jan 27 2026

tight low level height gradient under a clipper system
tracking through the northern great lakes will provide 25-35 mph
gusts, early morning advisory level wind chills, and concerns for
areas of blowing/drifting snow today. confidence in how much
lofting/blowing of recent fluffy snow and potential vis restrictions
remains uncertain, though expect rural/open areas to see at least
nuisance type impacts to travel. opted to continue with a sps for
most of the area to cover this threat. the exception remains along
and north of the in toll road where the winter wx advisory was
retained. this is due to a combination of deeper snow cover and
renewed les accums (1-3") along and behind a trailing cold front mid
morning through this evening. inversion heights and trajectories
are not nearly as favorable this time, though forecast soundings
show enough saturation with respect to ice and omega into
upper portions of the dgz for a 1-3" type snow within wnw flow
multibands. post-frontal boundary layer saturation, lake moisture
augmentation, and steepening lapse rates should also allow scattered
snow showers and flurries to blossom well inland during the day today
with a light dusting of snow possible in some areas.

winds likely diminish to under 10 knots tonight into wednesday with
ambient temps falling to either side of zero degrees fahrenheit
(coldest south). this will bring wind chills into the -10 to -20
range during this time which will likely result in the need for
another cold weather advisory (criteria is -15 or colder) for most.
low level flow trajectories back more to the wsw otherwise later
tonight into wednesday focusing lingering light les closer to the
lake in berrien/cass counties.

periodic les chances and prolonged periods of sub-zero wind chills
look to persist into the second half of the week within this
cold/cyclonic northwest flow regime. the period(s) to watch for more
significant lake effect snow still appear to be in the thursday night
through early saturday timeframe. a polar vort lobe drops south
through the great lakes and ohio valley with more northerly flow
trajectories. this could support some heavier les banding, though
confidence is low at this forecast range. some moderation follows
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 450 am est tue jan 27 2026

winds are expected to frequently gust to 25-30 knots today, starting
southwest this morning, then veering to the west-northwest behind a
cold front toward midday. this will likely result in areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibilities in mainly rural/open
areas, though cannot rule out a period of blsn at the terminals
during the day. lake effect snow showers/flurries and primarily
mvfr flight conditions likely develop today into this evening
at mainly ksbn otherwise with variable vis restrictions anticipated.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ this morning
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening
for inz005-103-104-203-204.
oh...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
miz078>081-177-277.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz078-
079-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
489
fxus63 kdtx 271057
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
557 am est tue jan 27 2026

.key messages...

- a cold weather advisory is in effect this morning for the first
episode of dangerous cold wind chills.

- snow showers today are expected to produce a dusting to less than
an inch of accumulation, with a low chance for isolated snow
squalls.

- windchills thursday morning are expected to be in the 10 to 15
degree below zero range and windchills friday morning are expected
to be in the 15 to 20 degree below zero range.

&&

.aviation...

wave of light snow has crossed into the southern terminals this
morning leading to a minor vfr decrease in visibilities. ceilings
have lowered to mvfr at all terminals, and should mainly hold at
this classification for the bulk of the daylight hours. snow shower
character transitions to lake effect by the midday hours as low-
level winds veer northwesterly with the passing great lakes system.
this affords slightly higher potential to reach ifr visibilities
during any briefly higher snowfall rates. southwest winds veer wnw
with time, gusting to around 25 knots. snowfall tapers off around
nightfall with scattering ceilings and weaker winds settling
westerly for the overnight hours.

for dtw...light snow at times today, mainly vfr visibilities with
mvfr ceilings. additional light lake effect possible wednesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 until 00z.

* high in precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 am est tue jan 27 2026

discussion...

steady drop in temperatures during the late evening with a
southwesterly gradient wind of 20 to 30 mph was sufficient to cause
windchills of 15 to 20 below zero across southeast michigan. the
coldest windchills have occurred over the southern forecast area,
south of the i 69 corridor as cloud was able to temper the surface
temperature drop across the north. while windchills will likely rise
heading into sunrise, will keep the cold weather advisory in effect.

upper level low pressure circulation digging into lake superior is
sending a wave of 750-600mb warm advection through southeast
michigan during the pre-dawn hours. upstream radar mosaic and
surface observations earlier supported widespread visibility
restrictions in falling snow of 1/4-2sm. heaviest activity has
occurred in closer proximity to the radar sites (lower elevation
sampling) with an obvious lake michigan moisture enhancement
contribution. z values have weakened as the warm advection wave
pushes through southeast michigan and snowfall rates will be less.
forecast soundings support fairly high static stability from the
surface up to 12.0 kft agl this morning. nonetheless, will continue
numerous/likely wording for light snow with accumulations this
morning with just a couple of tenths of accumulation with low liquid
equivalent. significant cold advection in the 2.0 to 6.0 kft agl
layer is forecasted to occur during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. steep, conditionally unstable lapse rates are
highlighted in the forecast soundings so snow showers or isolated
snow squalls will be possible. latest hires time lagged ensemble
supports surface winds in the post cold front environment early this
afternoon of 25 to 35 mph. still some question on the coverage of
snow shower banding and how far eastward any snow bands will
progress or extend. preference was again to go with a high pop/low
qpf this afternoon. the grids will have total snowfall amounts today
of around 1/2 inch. locally higher amounts will be possible
particularly north of the i 69 corridor dependent on duration of
banding this afternoon.

the arctic pattern is forecasted to persist throughout the remainder
of the work week and at least into the first half of the upcoming
weekend. not a lot of moisture advection is forecasted during the
coming days, but given the thermal profile will likely see chances
for perpetual flurries or at times light snow showers. the big
forecast question will be the need for additional cold weather and
windchill headlines this week. for tonight/wednesday morning, the
cold air intrusion is shown to undergo a quick moderation with
850mb temperatures warming a few degrees to -18-19c. do think
clearing will take place tonight so the question comes down to
surface winds. data suggests a surface wind of around 5 mph late
tonight and latest 5.0 nbm places 50th percentile for apparent
temperatures at around -8 to -10f tomorrow morning. will not be
issuing a cold weather advisory for wednesday morning this forecast
package. the next arctic intrusion will reinforce the eastern noam
trough and bring 850mb temperatures down to -22c for thursday and
friday. the current forecast has low temperatures thursday morning
between 0 to 5 below, with readings friday morning of between 7 to
10 below. windchills are expected to bet 12 to 15 below zero
thursday morning and 15 to 20 degrees below zero friday morning. cold
weather advisories will likely be needed at some point during the
late week.

some filling of the trough with rising geopotential thickness
supports not as extreme temperatures this weekend. still cold,
however, with below normal temperatures windchills sat/sun night
ranging 5 below zero to 5 above zero. no significant moisture
advection or precipitation event anticipated.

marine...

another arctic front will track through the central great lakes
today. southwest winds ahead of the front early this morning, with
gusts around 30 knots expected. a few brief gusts to marginal gales
over the open waters of central lake huron are also in play. snow
showers will accompany the front, transitioning to localized lake
effect activity this evening and tonight over lake huron
with northwest winds leading to a lake superior-norther lake huron
connection. low level winds back to the west by wednesday morning
and look to be around 20 knots or less through the day, as yet
another arctic front and cold airmass arrives. very cold airmass
(negative mid 20s at 850 mb) will lead to lake induced trough on
thursday, with northerly winds kicking in to finish the work week.
wind speeds look to remain under 30 knots.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz048-049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...cb
marine.......cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.