Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 100011
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
711 pm est fri jan 9 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes from the previous package. winds will quickly
diminish through this evening and overnight. snow totals have
been increased slightly (2 to 4 inches) across the snowbelt
late sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) gusty winds will quickly diminish this evening.

2) widespread rain returns saturday, followed by colder
temperatures and snow showers on sunday.

3) additional rain and/or snow showers are expected tuesday
night into wednesday, with precipitation transitioning to all
snow by wednesday night into thursday. some lake effect snow may
follow on thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

high pressure will quickly build from the west this evening and
overnight as low pressure exits northeast into quebec. wind
gusts remain elevated this afternoon, with recent observations
ranging anywhere from 45 to 55 mph, the highest of which are
located closer to the lakeshore. winds will quickly diminish
from west to east through this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight. lows will remain relatively mild for this
time of the year with temperatures in the 30s.


key message 2...

low pressure will move northeast into the great lakes region on
saturday and modestly deepen as flow becomes briefly cut-off in
the upper-levels. a mix of light and steady rain is expected
saturday afternoon and evening, with the highest totals around a
quarter of an inch located generally along and east of the i-71
corridor.

as the low exits northeast into quebec on sunday, a trough will
swing south across the region, ushering in a colder air mass
and a brief burst of snow, particularly across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania where some lake enhancement is
possible in the afternoon and evening. snow totals will
generally range in the 2 to 4 inch range across the snowbelt.
areas outside of the snowbelt may receive anywhere from a
dusting up to a quick inch. snow is not expected to fully
transition over to lake effect as flow quickly shifts to the
southwest late sunday night into monday as a clipper slides just
to the north of the area.

gusty winds are expected on sunday with the trough passage with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range in the late morning and
afternoon.


key message 3...

a large upper-level troughing regime appears favored to develop
across the eastern conus on wednesday, ushering in a return to
below average temperatures on thursday and beyond. initially, a
clipper system will bring rain mixed with snow across the area
tuesday night into wednesday. this system will extend a cold
front south through the region on wednesday, with rain quickly
transitioning to snow behind the front. although some lake
effect is possible behind the front on thursday, the intensity
remains uncertain given shallow moisture above 850 mb.

below average temperatures are anticipated on thursday and
friday with highs in the 20s and wind chills in the low teens to
single digits.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
winds and gusts are quickly subsiding this evening as low
pressure rapidly exits to the northeast and a ridge of high
pressure quickly slides across the area. mvfr ceilings will
persist area-wide overnight. some guidance continues to suggest
a brief period of ifr ceilings at sites such as mfd and cak
early saturday morning, but am sticking with mvfr in the tafs
for now given an inconsistent signal and lack of ifr upstream.
winds will generally shift from northwest this evening to
southeast overnight at <7 knots.

after a brief period where the mvfr ceilings may try scattering
out saturday morning, widespread rain and lower ceilings
quickly spread northeast between 17-20z. most sites will likely
experience a period of ifr ceilings and/or visibility during
the steadiest rain, with improvement towards and after 0z from
west to east. winds will be south-southeast at 5-10kt through
most of saturday afternoon, shifting more southwest late
saturday with gusts increasing saturday night.

outlook...non-vfr continues at times saturday evening in
lingering rain showers and low ceilings. non-vfr possible at
times area-wide in snow showers late saturday night and sunday,
persisting sunday night across far ne oh and nw pa.

&&

.marine...
strong westerly winds are expected across lake erie through this
evening before sharply decreasing to less than 10 knots after
sunset. small craft advisories and gale warnings remain in effect
for this.

quiet weather ensues on saturday followed by another batch of strong
westerly winds on sunday. small craft advisories are nearly a
guarantee at this point, though a short gale warning may be possible
in the eastern basin where winds may approach 35 knots at times late
saturday night into sunday. northwest winds on sunday gradually
dissipate to around 20 knots sunday night, before becoming southwest
and remaining 15 to 25 knots through at least wednesday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...sullivan
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 092356
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
656 pm est fri jan 9 2026

.key messages...

- a period of light rain expected on saturday, mixing with snow near
and north of the mi border. little to no snow accumulation.

- colder and breezy with scattered snow showers saturday night
into sunday. most areas will see little to no snow
accumulation, except for areas in northwest in and sw mi where
totals of 1-3" will be possible.

- dry and trending warmer early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 157 pm est fri jan 9 2026

winds rapidly diminish this afternoon into early this evening as
weak low level ridging briefly makes an appearance between systems.
for saturday, ascent will increase through the column in response to
an upper low digging southeast through minnesota and wisconsin,
and a separate southern stream shortwave getting absorbed
northeast into the oh valley and southern great lakes. this
upward motion should allow for a least light precipitation to
accompany a low level trough east through the local area on
saturday, though there are hints in a split overhead as more
pronounced forcing bypasses west and better moisture quality
remains locked up well to the east. ptype looks to be a mix of
rain and snow near/north of the mi border with primarily light
rain elsewhere for a time along the aforementioned trough.
temperatures generally in the mid 30s to near 40 otherwise on
saturday.

the development and deepening of surface low pressure to the
northeast saturday night into sunday will allow a colder/blustery
air mass to wrap in. several vort lobes will also pivot through late
saturday into saturday with scattered snow showers, transitioning to
pure les in our nw flow snow belts into sunday morning. several
inches of snow accumulation will be possible in these areas during
this time with minor travel impacts possible.

a northwest flow regime will generally be in place next week. monday
into tuesday will feature a decent rebound in temps as clipper-type
systems track north with the local area in a warm advection regime
north of sfc high pressure. medium range models have remained
relatively consistent in a cold front dropping through later tuesday
into tuesday night with light rain changing to snow showers post-
frontal. there could be a robust, yet brief, lake response sometime
wednesday into wednesday night as deep/cold northerly flow follows
in post-frontal.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 638 pm est fri jan 9 2026

area of clearing attempted to work into ksbn as weak subsidence
moves in. however, satellite and obs data shows stratus quickly
filling back in with cigs solid in the mvfr range. slowed down
the departure of the low clouds, with eventual trend toward vfr
still appearing on track, just delayed. kfwa may very well
remain in mvfr cigs through the overnight hours given proximity
to deeper moisture to the se of the site.

any potential improvement will quickly disappear on saturday as
another fast moving front moves through, solid mvfr and at times
ifr cigs (also vsby at ksbn) expected near/after 15z at ksbn and
a few hours later at kfwa. ptype looks to be a mix of rain and
snow prior to fropa, then maybe ending as a bit of snow before
the deeper mstr and lift departs. winds will pick up out of the
west and northwest post frontal with gusts to 25 kts, maybe
somewhat higher as caa commences.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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857
fxus63 kdtx 100009
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
709 pm est fri jan 9 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snow is expected across much of southeast michigan
saturday afternoon and saturday night. snowfall amounts will vary
with 1 to 3 inches possible along and north of i 69. highest amounts
will be possible over midland, bay and huron counties. lesser
amounts are expected to the south across metro detroit with the
potential for melting.

- there is a chance for snow showers with some brief snow squalls
saturday night and early sunday mainly along and south of i 96. low
confidence in timing and coverage.

- northwest winds of 30 to 35 mph will be possible sunday.

- below normal temperatures developing for the middle to end of next
week.

&&

.aviation...

northwest flow persists behind the departed low pressure, but speeds
(and gusts) have dropped off sharply within a relaxed pressure
gradient and weaker low-level winds. the orientation of lower column
flow maintains a bkn-ovc mvfr lake-modified stratocumulus deck
through at least the first half of the overnight hours, before
responding to shortwave ridging that slides through. this flips flow
southerly, sometime around 09z. the next low pressure system will
already be approaching from the west by saturday afternoon. expect
ceilings to fill back in and lower to mvfr or ifr before
visibilities decrease as precipitation gets underway. sites from ptk
north are more likely to remain all snow at the start of the event,
while further south, higher chances exists for rain, or a rain/snow
mix at onset. precipitation likely holds off until after 15z,
beginning later with further southeast extent to around 18z. the
system`s cold front moves through saturday evening veering winds
westerly. this activates cold advection, leading to steeper lapse
rates and gusty winds to around 25 knots by saturday night.

for dtw...mvfr ceilings for most of tonight, then vfr until saturday
afternoon as rain/snow arrives. winds back westerly saturday night
with mvfr to ifr ceilings and additional lake effect snow showers.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 feet overnight, then high
saturday afternoon and evening.

* moderate for rain/snow mix saturday afternoon, then high
for snow saturday evening/night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 pm est fri jan 9 2026

discussion...

non-convective peak winds of 55 to 65 mph occurred over a greater
portion of the southern forecast area from detroit southward in an
approximate 60 minute period between 1030-1130am. steep lapse rates
that resulted from the combination of daytime heating and the
initial near surface cold advection allowed for the efficient
downward momentum transport of the strong kinematic profile aloft.
over the next hour, a secondary wind shift to the northwest will
occur along the trailing trough axis. forecasted wind fields project
some lingering gusty wind potential the next hour before falling
off/weakening rapidly by 22z. the wind advisory will be allowed to
expire at 4pm.

differential cyclonic vorticity advection, anticyclonic curvature to
the upper level jet axis, and downstream shortwave ridging will
support surface high pressure over southeast michigan tonight. plan
view of relative humidity on isentropic surfaces supports deep dry
air advection with well defined system relative isentropic downglide
through 12z saturday morning. some light br/hz will be possible
around daybreak with light winds, but no significant signal exists
for dense fog.

impressive merger of two absolute vorticity centers will cause
cyclogenesis over lower michigan late saturday afternoon and
saturday night. the most notable aspect of the system is an
extremely progressive and dominant upper level jet streak that
flashes eastward carrying the greatest height falls through ohio/pa
before transferring cyclogenesis to the east coast. locally, the net
result is a pseudo barotropic low pressure system that will have at
least some brief warm conveyor connection. the forecast question for
the saturday system now appears to have evolved toward one of qpf
amounts. midlevel moisture progs out of both the 09.12z gfs and nam
suggest a 6-8 hour period of midlevel moisture/saturation that will
swing through southeast michigan before midlevel dry slot lifts
northward again through all of the cwa. the 00z control run of the
ecmwf and the greater 06z eps suite were significant outliers with
deeper moisture and a longer precipitation duration due to persistent
trowal/deformation forcing. the latest 09.12z control run of the
ecmwf has since backed off this solution. marked differences exist in
qpf and snow amounts between nbm v5.0 and nbm v4.3. preference is
sided with a strong nwp consensus for light amounts of qpf. this does
remain in good agreement with the inherited grids.

the other trend is for a colder solution space supporting snow as a
precipitation type saturday night and sunday. consensus of model
solutions shows a very strong wet bulb cooling potential between 2.0
and 5.0 kft agl for all areas including southern metro detroit.
forecasted surface temperatures still remain mild for the daytime,
but forecast soundings suggest it will be extremely shallow. peak of
the event appears between 16z sat and 00z sunday. the potential then
exists for show showers and or brief snow squalls saturday night as
the vorticity max tracks directly through far southern lower
michigan. uncertainty exists on coverage due to mesoscale processes
that will likely have interaction with convergence pulling away from
lake michigan. wrap around snow chances will then be possible sunday.
low confidence on coverage again sunday as latest model data
suggests composite trough axis will already be drifting east of the
cwa. geopotential heights filling with a transition to confluence
aloft should support synoptic scale subsidence late sunday. the
messaging for this event will be 1 to 3 inches of snowfall possible
for areas along and north of i 69 with highest amounts expected in
bay and midland counties. less than 2 inches of snowfall is expected
south of i 69 but that will account for the entire 24 hour period
18z saturday to 18z sunday.

strong northwest gradient flow in the wake of the system will bring
another period of stronger winds to southeast michigan sunday. a
weaker kinematic field than this previous system with less dynamic
frontal passage limits the forecasted winds into the 30 to 35 mph
range. confluence aloft should lead to quiet high pressure monday
before a series of troughs begin to descend into the great lakes
tuesday and the middle of next week.

marine...

a cold front has now cleared the great lakes which will sustain
breezy northwest flow into the evening. the better cold air
advection and thus region of enhanced over lake instability will
reside across northern and central lake huron, which will maintain
gust to gales through the evening. high pressure does rapidly fill
in across the region late tonight into tomorrow morning, which will
quickly diminish wind potential, leading to light winds overnight.

a second low pressure system will then move through starting
saturday which will bring widespread snow to the great lakes.
departure of this low into canada will bring another cold front
across the region with a renewed push of cold air air which will
bring elevated winds through sunday. gusts around 30 knots are
increasingly likely across portions of lake huron by sunday morning,
with some low-end chances for gust to gales through the central and
southern basin. small craft advisories will be likely across the
outer saginaw bay through northern thumb as northwest flow brings
elevated wave heights. a brief ridge of high pressure builds in late
sunday to monday morning, decreasing wind speeds while winds back to
the southwest.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...cb
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.