Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
141
fxus61 kcle 191843
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
143 pm est thu feb 19 2026

.what has changed...
expanded the dense fog advisory for northern ohio as visibility has
dropped to less than a quarter mile. strong thunderstorms are
possible this evening and tonight. gusty southwest winds are likely
during the day on friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dense fog advisory in effect for northern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania until 9am and could impact the morning commute.

2) above average temperatures and strong thunderstorms possible late
this evening into early friday morning. strong winds likely along
and behind the cold front friday afternoon.

3) seasonable temperatures return this weekend with snow showers
possible through monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dense fog has formed along a stationary boundary that has begun to
drift southward across northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.
colder air is moving south behind the boundary that has dropped
surface temperatures close to saturation and with winds becoming
light and variable, has allowed for fog to form. in the southern
portion of the cwa, patchy fog will be possible with an inversion in
place and the low levels being saturated from the precipitation
earlier today. fog should begin to dissipate mid morning today
though could impact the morning commute.

key message 2...
temperatures today will rise up into the upper 50s to low 60s
as southerly flow takes hold across the region with an
approaching low pressure system. this low will enter the great
lakes region late thursday evening, tracking northeasterly from
the mid-mississippi valley. the low will be occluding as it
enters the region, so the warm sector influence will be minimal
before the cold front sweeps through. though with that, there
will be some instability ahead of the frontal system. this will
mainly be confined to the western half of the cwa and lower as
the system progress eastward overnight. mucape will be around
300-500 j/kg with decent bulk shear supported by a llj of 35-45
knots will allow for an environment conducive of producing small
hail. spc has put the western portion of the cwa within a
marginal risk for severe weather, anchored by the hail threat.
in addition to the severe threat, there will be a decent amount
of qpf across the region. currently, the forecast has a quarter
to half inch of qpf from late thursday night through friday
afternoon. within thunderstorms, higher amounts of rainfall are
possible. the severe weather threat should diminish early
morning on friday.

after frontal passage, the upper level trough will still be working
through the great lakes throughout the day on friday. temperatures
will still be warm, up into the low to mid 50s with westerly flow
over the region, but there will be strong pressure gradient to go
along with it. a llj of 40-50 knots will support gusty winds across
the region friday afternoon. strongest winds, generally west of the
i-71 corridor, will be 20-25 mph sustained with gusts around 40 mph.
to the east, winds will be around 15-20 mph with gusts around 30
mph. winds will begin to diminish late friday evening as the upper
level low moves off to the northeast.

key message 3...
as the low pressure system moves off to the east, flow across
the region will shift to be out of the west to northwest
bringing more seasonable temperatures to the region. an upper
level trough will linger over the great lakes through the
weekend and into early next week reinforcing the flow.
temperatures will drop down into the low 40s on saturday before
dropping more to be in the low to mid 30s sunday into next week.
overnight lows will be in the 20s for that time period.
regardless, saturday should stay dry until a low pressure system
moves to the east up the eastern seaboard. precipitation will
return early sunday morning in the form on snow showers as
moisture is pulled across the great lakes region. snow
accumulation is likely, mainly in the eastern half of the cwa,
though light amounts possible to the west. accumulation is be
dependent on how the low develops and tracks off to the east.
the main player for snow accumulation will be with the lake
enhanced snow showers within the snow belt that could develop
with the wrap around moisture. it is likely that this will
continue through tuesday until ridging starts to build in and
precipitation wanes.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
a stationary front will sink south of lake erie today, as lifr
fog/stratus briefly improves to mvfr across the area. widespread
dissipation of fog/stratus south of the boundary is unlikely,
however, given continued boundary layer saturation, colder surface
temperatures, and little mixing. therefore, expect to see ifr and
patchy lifr conditions return this evening.

showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon in
the warm sector southwest of the boundary ahead of a vigorous low
pressure system. development will spread out of the ms valley and
into the oh valley, and push the stationary front north and eastward
tonight. this will increase the chance of showers and isolated,
embedded thunderstorms at most terminals, with most convection
elevated. therefore, small hail and winds gusting above 30 knots are
likely in stronger storms.

as this system moves through the great lakes, an associated
cold front will sweep the region friday, which will help bring
ceilings back above lifr/ifr thresholds by late morning.
southeasterly winds will shift southwesterly through the day,
gusting above 20kts, with conditions remaining sub-vfr behind
the front as well.

outlook...this system will move near the east coast friday night,
with a weak trough lingering over lake erie and a ridge building to
the south. expect periods of non-vfr conditions throughout the
weekend, with the snow returning sunday and monday enhanced by a
vigorous coastal low pressure system exiting the mid atlantic. high
pressure will build across the region tuesday.

&&

.marine...
the stationary front just south of lake erie will allow for a push
of cooler air to settle in at the surface and, coupled with ample
low level moisture and modest warm air aloft, will help sustain low
fog/stratus over the lake through the early afternoon. dense fog
should diminish by early afternoon, but may return overnight and
early friday morning across the western basin ahead of an
approaching cold front.

a storm system currently moving out of the midwest will advance
toward the oh valley today, and into the great lakes tomorrow. this
will push the stationary front north and east, allowing for strong
cold frontal passage on friday, winds with this front will approach
gale conditions, but gusts should generally remain at/below 30
knots. this will cause movement in the ice fields, as well as the
potential for low water west of the erie islands, and people are
encouraged to stay off the ice. ice floes may also block shipping
channels.

this low pressure system will move across lake huron friday night,
as the associated frontal boundary pushes toward the east coast,
and will dissipate into a trough across the lake through
monday. winds will decrease below 20 knots and eventually become
northwesterly by early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>012-
017>020-027>030-036-037.
pa...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
793
fxus63 kiwx 191732
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1232 pm est thu feb 19 2026

.key messages...

- highs in the 60s today are within 5 degrees of record levels.

- showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this evening. the
main threat will be locally gusty winds and small hail.

- cooler air arrives friday with snow becoming more likely,
especially by sunday morning.

&&

.update...
issued at 818 am est thu feb 19 2026

first round of storms this morning weakened and are pushing
northward in conjunction with the 925 mb theta-e gradient.
earlier runs of the hrrr pointed to some initiation in our west
as a wave invigorates overhead later this morning into midday so
we`ll be watching that. should storms erupt in that environment,
there would only be a couple hundred joules of mucape to work
with and there may be some pockets of 30 kts of shear. the
environment is probably going to take some time to rebuild and
so more current runs of the hrrr have been just more keen on
reigniting storms between 20 and 00z later this afternoon as the
better forcing arrives. better mucape (500 to 1000 j/kg) are
expected to exist at that time with a better area of 30+ kts of
effective shear returning as well. still this afternoon`s window
looks to be the main window for severe weather as long as
something doesn`t fire during the midday time frame and leave
behind a worked over environment or debris clouds. hail and wind
would be the main threats with the afternoon storms should they
materialize, but a tornado cannot be ruled out especially with
various boundaries laid out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 159 am est thu feb 19 2026

one last day of much above normal temperatures in this stretch
of warmth within a southwesterly flow aloft as a trough pushes
southeasterly into the region with highs today in the mid 50s to
mid 60s for southern portions of our cwa. a few convective
showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible this
morning especially over our southwestern and southern portions
of the cwa but the better chances for thunderstorms will be
later this afternoon into the evening hours as the better lift
associated with the trough pushes into the area. current 07z
regional radar imagery does have a couple of thunderstorms
developing over central il over vermilion and champaign
counties. these will slowly push to the northeast into our
southwestern counties over the next several hours this morning.
current dew points over the area are in the low 30s but we will
see an influx in moisture pushing northward into the area today
with dew points increasing into the mid 50s especially for our
southern tier of counties later this afternoon.

spc currently has a majority of our cwa under a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for their latest day 1 convective
outlook. there is also a fairly small sliver of slight risk in
place for our most southern tier of counties. the main threats
will be gusty outflow winds, small hail, and even a tornado or
two would be possible. the one limiting factor seems to be the
instability as surface based cape is very limited but the
mucape values are around 300-450 j/kg. bulk shear values will be
sufficient for some organization with 35 to 45 knot values. the
most likely time for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be
from about 3 pm to 9 pm est.

colder temperatures will begin to push into the region from the
northwest on friday and highs will only get into the low 40s to
low 50s for our far southeastern portion of the area. lows by
saturday morning will get back down into the low 30s to upper
20s. light rain showers mainly north of us-30 will begin to
change over to snow showers by friday evening. high temperatures
over the weekend will remain in the low to mid 30s with lows in
the upper 20s each morning. another trough will move through
late saturday through sunday and will bring another chance for
snow showers across the area. this will also bring another
reinforcing shot of colder air for monday with highs in the
lower 30s and low temperatures on monday and tuesday mornings
only in the low 20s to upper teens. of course, this will not
seem so bad compared to the very cold we had at the beginning of
the month. broad ridging across the central conus will begin to
push eastward into the region once again by tuesday and we will
see another warming trend into the middle of next week with
highs warming into the mid and upper 40s with a few locations
near 50 degrees on wednesday and thursday. chances for more
rainfall will increase for the end of next week with another
trough making residence over the great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1224 pm est thu feb 19 2026

round 2 of convection slowly winding down with clearing now
observed at ksbn which is likely to persist through 00z. kfwa is
on the edge of the stratus deck and may very well remain firmly
entrenched in it for a while. a lone thunderstorm was west of
kfwa moving ene. ne winds ahead of the storm suggests it may
weaken with time, but can`t rule out a brief impact with some
lightning. kept a prob30 for a shower but left mention of
thunder out for now.

an arc of showers and maybe some storms will sweep sw to ne
across the area near/after 00z. strongest storms should remain
well south of both sites. a strong cold front arrives towards
12z with a shift to sw winds and rapid increase in wind gusts
with peak winds in the 15-21z time frame of 35 kts or locally
more possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 7 am est /6 am cst/ to 7 pm est /6 pm cst/
friday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est friday for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...roller
discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
562
fxus63 kdtx 191757
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1257 pm est thu feb 19 2026

.key messages...

- chance for rain showers today through friday morning. low chance
for an embedded thunderstorm. chance for snow showers friday
afternoon and evening.

- southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph will be possible friday afternoon
across portions of southeast michigan.

- light snow chances for southeast michigan late sunday and monday.

&&

.aviation...

region of dense fog remains rooted over metro detroit showing little
signs of improvement thus far today. due to this, went much more
pessimistic on vsbys/cigs through the early tonight keeping lifr
prevailing for ptk and the detroit terminals unless obs begin to
show otherwise. to the north, vfr conditions have taken hold for the
afternoon with elevated light showers gradually working into the i-
69 corridor. northern edge of this rain could clip mbs however main
rain chances are focused from fnt south. some uncertainty with how
ceilings behave this evening for these northern terminals,
particularly fnt, once showers vacate with models adamant in lower
mvfr to near ifr cloud developing, which is partially seen in
upstream obs over northern in. renewed widespread fog/mist develop
for all terminals tonight as low pressure lifts into lower mi.
attendant occluded front lifts through late tonight into friday
morning bringing numerous showers and an isolated thunder chance
before clearing mid friday morning. strong southwesterly quickly
follow daytime friday with gusts 30-35kts.

for dtw... lifr fog and low cloud have held firm showing little
signs of improvement. while some improvement in visibilities to ifr
remain possible this afternoon as light showers cross, ample low
level moisture favors continuing low cloud through tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate to high for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below
1/2sm through this evening.

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* high for ptype of all rain.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 949 am est thu feb 19 2026

update...

earlier forecast updates were issued to increase rain chances today
as a slow moving mid level short feature and trailing axis of mix
level deformation/frontal forcing lifts northeast across the forecast
area. an increase in the east-southeast flow and corresponding
downslope has allowed improvement in visibilities from flint/owosso
up through the saginaw valley. while diurnal heating may support some
slight improvement to visibilities across the eastern portions of
the forecast area, the easterly flow off the icy lakes will maintain
a strongly stable boundary layer capped by a very deep inversion. any
semblance of daytime mixing will be inefficient in allowing too
significant an improvement in the fog and low clouds across the east.
therefore afternoon temps have been nudged downward accordingly in
this area.

prev discussion...
issued at 331 am est thu feb 19 2026

discussion...

shallow boundary layer moisture under a strong inversion will
maintain expansive fog over all of se mi through at least the late
morning hours, with visibilities ranging between 1/4 mi to 3/4 mi.
daytime heating in conjunction with a subtle increase in wind speeds
and rain chances will attempt to improve visibilities through the
day. the inversion weakens but holds under increasing mid-level
clouds, which will maintain more murky conditions with low stratus
and patchy mist. given pretty inefficient mechanisms to erode fog
through the morning, have opted to extend the dense fog advisory
through 12pm and will let near-term trends dictate the need for any
early cancellation or extension. daytime highs have also been
lowered for this forecast package. thinking is that dense fog
lifting to stratus with an east flow component will hamper
meaningful temperature increases today, holding highs in the low to
mid 40s. there is still a signal for the interior through flint and
portions of the tri-cities to push towards the upper 40s, where a
small window for afternoon clearing resides.

renewed rain shower chances are likely through the day today given
the early morning cyclogenesis across the central rockies which has
spawned a low pressure system, on track to travel into the great
lakes through friday. trailing shortwave feature will aid in
strengthening low pressure across lake huron down to a seasonably
strong surface pressure around 990mb with occlusion taking place
shortly thereafter as the low progresses across central to northern
lower michigan. rain chances will be possible throughout the day,
but two main windows for better coverage will be this morning into
the afternoon and again late tonight into friday morning.

rain showers have developed right along a strong theta-e gradient
across northern indiana as a shortwave feature arrived overhead.
progression of the low pressure system will transition this
gradient/stalled low-level frontal boundary into michigan this
morning and afternoon. this boundary will likely stall out over
southern michigan, but continued progression of low pressure will
enhance system relative isentropic ascent through the low and mid
levels, increasing chances and coverage of rain showers late tonight
and overnight. some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible
given weaker mucape values of 100-250 j/kg.

cyclonic flow will accelerate the colder air situated over the
northern plain into michigan, the coldest of which will be found on
the southern flank of the low pressure system, wrapping around lake
michigan before nosing into southern michigan. temperatures to drop
through the day friday, with steeper acceleration farther south
across the cwa where the cooler air initially resides. this colder
air will also be tied to the stronger llj which lines up across
southern michigan and through the ohio valley. the stronger momentum
reservoir brings gust potential of 40-45 mph across southern
michigan with dampened potential (~30-35 mph) closer to the tri-
cities and thumb as improved mixing depths bisect the stronger winds
aloft. wrap around moisture also bring snow shower chances friday
afternoon into the evening.

low pressure weakens and washes out over the weekend with additional
shortwaves expected to carve into the plains and midwest over the
weekend. this will reinforce colder air, the coldest of which
arrives sunday and monday with 850 mb temperatures dropping to -12c.
these temperatures will be cold enough to support lake effect snow
chances sunday and monday with added support from glancing
shortwaves. colder temperatures last through the early week period.

marine...

areas of locally dense marine fog will decrease as drier air
attempts to lift in from the southwest. a brief lull in dynamics
ensues today as competing systems interface between the eastern
plains and upper midwest. southeasterly winds hold for most of the
day with slower speeds over lake st. clair and western erie,
compared to the huron basin. an accelerated low-level jet (+40
knots) is expected to return for the northern half of lake huron on
friday as the eastern plains wave deepens and ejects across lower
michigan. medium confidence exists in an additional round of gusts
to gales for lhz361 and lhz362, therefore a gale watch remains in
effect for the northern half of lake huron. additionally, this
system will produce more rounds of rain showers, and perhaps some
light snow for the northern waterways friday evening/night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

gale watch from late tonight through friday afternoon for lhz361-
362.

lake st clair...dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
update.......sc
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.