Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
499
fxus61 kcle 102350
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
750 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with this update. hot and
humid conditions will continue through tomorrow.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
ahead of a cold front that will push across the region friday.


2) hot and humid conditions ahead of the cold front with little
overnight relief anticipated. cooler weather behind a cold
front friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level trough is currently over the north central u.s.
and the western great lakes region. there is a small upper level
ridge over the ohio valley today. our area is ahead of a cold
front that is located over the upper midwest and across the
cornbelt region. looking ahead for the rest of the afternoon and
evening, mostly dry weather conditions are expected. there could
be a few widely scattered pop-up showers or thunderstorms
through the evening hours. our attention will be looking
westward later this evening and overnight for a decaying mcs
that may potentially move into our area. high-res forecast
guidance is somewhat uncertain on timing and coverage of this
possible complex of convection. spc does have the entire area in
a marginal risk for severe storms and far nwoh in a slight risk.
the main severe weather hazard would be damaging wind gusts.
again forecast confidence on timing and scope of possible
convection is somewhat uncertain.

the weather pattern for tomorrow will be similar as today. the
area will be will be on the warm side of an advancing cold front
through the great lakes and midwest. some widely scattered
convection may be possible during the daytime heating. pops and
rain chances look higher for thursday night into early friday
morning as convection from the west moves across the area with
the associated cold front. again, spc has the area in a marginal
risk for severe storms with the main threat being damaging wind
gusts.

high pressure will build into the area later friday and saturday
with drier weather. another cold front will move across the area
early sunday with a chance for showers. an upper level trough
will develop over the great lakes region by next week with
scattered chances for showers.

key message 2...
the heat and humidity will stick around through thursday
evening. the current heat advisory for north central and
northwest ohio will remain in effect through this evening. high
temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s this
afternoon. the heat index will be up to 100 degrees, especially
in the heat advisory area. overnight low temperatures tonight
will not bring much relief in the lower to middle 70s.
tomorrow`s high temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s
and lower 90s with the heat index approaching 100 degrees again.
additional heat advisories may be needed for north central and
northwest ohio again thursday. a cold front will knock the
temperatures down a little for friday into the weekend. an upper
level trough will develop over the great lakes and ohio valley
by early next week with cooler temperatures in the 70s for
highs.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
thunderstorm activity ongoing right now across north-central and
northeast ohio. in general, expect this activity to grow upscale
and dive southeast. this is most likely to impact kcle/kcak, and
then possibly kyng over the next several hours. there is lower
confidence that storms reach keri or kmfd.

another line of storms over indiana is moving eastward towards
the area, though this line has lost of lot of intensity, with
very little lightning at this point. at this point, it looks to
mainly impact ktol/kfdy with rain, gusty winds, and a very low
probability of lightning. additional thunderstorm activity is
possible late tonight, but there is very low confidence and
wasn`t included in the tafs just yet.

winds are generally out of the southwest this evening, 8 to 12
knots. winds will begin to favor a more westerly direction late
thursday morning and afternoon, 8 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in a line of showers and
thunderstorms thursday night, particularly west of the i-71
corridor. non-vfr may return in scattered showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
the next marine concern will be late thursday night into friday
as a cold front briefly ushers in west winds of around 20
knots. at the minimum, a moderate rip risk is likely early
friday, especially across the central and eastern basin with
waves of 2 to 4 feet. a lower potential for rough marine
conditions is also possible late saturday night into sunday as
another cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of around
15 knots.

there will also be a few chances for strong thunderstorms
impacting the lake with gusty winds over the next several days.
the first chance for strong storms will be late this evening
and overnight, with a higher likelihood thursday night into
friday morning as a line of showers and storms moves east into
the area.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...saunders
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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366
fxus63 kiwx 110213
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1013 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

.key messages...

- high temperatures around 90 degrees coupled with humid
conditions are expected again thursday. it is possible another
heat advisory will be issued for portions, if not all, of the
area. if venturing outside, be sure to take breaks and stay
hydrated. it is likely that heat indices will reach 100
degrees again thursday for several locations.

- chances for severe weather exist tonight and again thursday
night. damaging wind, hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two
are possible for both severe weather threats.

- next chances for showers and storms return saturday night with
another cool frontal passage, bringing cooler temperatures
into low/mid 70s to lower 80s along with decreased humidity
across the area sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.update...
issued at 741 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

outflow dominant line of weakening convection now just west of
the interstate 69 corridor will continue east toward northwest
oh over the next several hours. gusts with the outflow have
generally be up to 40-50 mph, though a few 55 mph plus gusts
have been measured with more pronounced isolated cells along the
composite outflow. some isolated wind damage will remain
possible with this line, though a gradual weakening trend
remains possible as this activity continues to outrun better
mid-upper level forcing/shear. forecast remains on track
otherwise with the second round after midnight likely not nearly
as formidable as this first round has worked over the air mass.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 242 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

hot and humid today which will help to set up a couple more
bouts of rain and storms later today with another shortwave
rippling through the westerly flow aloft supplying a lifting
mechanism which will come in two parts. the first part will come
into the western parts of the cwa around 6 pm edt and quickly
push eastward through the rest of the area. this will be
followed by a second impulse around midnight edt. storms with
may be strong with even a few becoming severe. the limiting
factor will once again be the lower amount of shear available,
bulk shear values of 20 to 30 kts will be present so some storms
may exhibit organization. current radar imagery has a linear
mcs pushing eastward across western il/wi attm. current thinking
is that the better forcing/energy with the first impulse pushes
northeastward and will stay north of the area with a weaker line
pushing across the area. expectations for the second bout
pushing through late tonight should generally be weaker than the
first with less than ideal diurnal timing. however, main impacts
for both sets tonight will be gusty winds and moderate to heavy
rainfall. a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. spc has our
area currently under a slight risk for severe storms.

tomorrow we will once again see the hot/humid conditions with
dew points and temperatures slightly less than what we saw
today. will decide overnight on if another heat advisory may be
needed. as said yesterday, either way it will be uncomfortable
especially since we have not had much of this heat/humidity
prior to this week. this continued heat and humidity on thursday
will set the table for another chance at severe weather late on
thursday. this looks generally a better set-up for organized
storms as the main focus for the storms will be a cold front
associated with a low pressure circulation pushing northeastward
through southern wi. the cold front will push eastward into the
western portions of the cwa late in the evening tomorrow with
current timing looking right around 10 pm edt. this frontal
boundary will also allow for better lifting mechanism and a
better shear profile. low level shear around 40 to 50 kts and
helicity values around 250-300 m2/s2. also some of the forecast profile
data has effective layer stp values around 4 to 5. the thinking
is this will be a linear convective system along the boundary
with the potential for qlcs type spin ups especially for the
western portions and northern half of the cwa. so will need to
really watch this system and definitely looks interesting. spc
currently has a portion of our area in an enhanced risk for
severe weather. all threats look to be on the table with this
event including tornadoes.

cooler and drier airmass will push in behind the cold frontal
boundary on friday. highs on friday and saturday will range from
the upper 70s to mid 80s. looking like a nice couple of spring
days on friday and saturday with mostly sunny skies in store.
another cool front will approach the area late saturday into
sunday morning and bring another batch of showers and
thunderstorms with storms at this time not expected to become
severe. the front will bring a cooler airmass into the area with
high temperatures on sunday afternoon through the middle of
next week in the 70s. a shortwave moving through a zonal flow
aloft will bring a small chance of showers with perhaps a rumble
of thunder or two late monday into tuesday morning. a trough
looks to set up over the great lakes region and will bring
periods of showers to the area on tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 741 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

trailing stratiform vfr rain and embedded thunder will likely
linger through 01z at ksbn. the leading outflow dominant line
of convection likely gets into kfwa between 00-01z with gusts up
to near 40 kts possible on its leading edge. a period of rain
and thunder then likely follows for an hour. a lull is expected
later this evening before another weaker area of showers and
embedded thunder tracks through after midnight (5-9z) with
primarily vfr conditions continuing to prevail. dry then later
tonight into tomorrow otherwise with southwesterly winds picking
in the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...steinwedel
discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
868
fxus63 kdtx 110402
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1202 am edt thu jun 11 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms
thursday night. damaging winds, large hail, and spin-up tornadoes
are all possible.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr under mid and high convective debris clouds is accompanied by
south to sw wind n the 5 to 10 knot range, which keep fog from
becoming much of a factor until closer to sunrise. this is when
showers that are expanding upstream at forecast issuance spread over
se mi with scattered to numerous coverage. the extra boundary layer
moisture supports mvfr fog and stratus through mid morning.

the terminal corridor is fully in the warm sector of low pressure
spanning from northern ontario into the midwest during the day.
building daytime instability quickly lifts any lingering fog and
stratus by mid morning. heat and humidity set the stage for the next
round of thunderstorms currently projected for later thursday
evening.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for a stray thunderstorm
within expanding clusters of showers during the late night.
additional storms then hold off until later thursday evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight and thursday
morning.

* moderate for thunderstorms late tonight and thursday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 932 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

update...

the mcs crossing se mi at issuance time has benefited considerably
from new cell growth on the leading edge of the cold pool fueled by
mlcape of 2500-3000 j/kg. the new cells continued to grow quickly
upscale to reinforce damaging wind within the system, especially
north of i-69. locations to the south will experience more sporadic
damaging wind gusts left over from the original cold pool along the
less organized south fringe of the system before it exits into
ontario from 11 pm to midnight.

farther upstream, late evening hourly mesoanalysis shows a broad
pool of rain-cooled air stabilizing conditions back into wi/il
leaving the instability axis aligned more west to east into the ohio
valley. this guides the central il mcs sewd and south of the mi
border during the night. as this occurs, instability returning
northward through ia/wi feeds elevated moisture transport over the
lower mi meso-high, and this leads to a new round of showers and
thunderstorms developing overhead with scattered to numerous
coverage that linger through mid morning. locally heavy rainfall is
the primary hazard with this activity.

prev discussion...
issued at 315 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

discussion...

weak mid-level height rises have promoted scattering of morning
stratus allowing for respectable solar insolation from late morning
into this afternoon. weak warm front, that had been confined to
southern se mi, washes north in a downstream response to mid-upper
trough digging into the upper midwest/far western great lakes
through the rest of the afternoon expanding lower 70 dewpoints into
the northern cwa. despite this near-tropical near surface layer,
lingering capping inversion is expected to hold through the late
afternoon period. as we reach the early evening (~21z and after),
things get murkier wrt to the cap. an eml above 850mb, partially
sampled by ilx`s 12z raob, is progged to lift into southern lower
around roughly 21z. this feature brings steepening mid-level lapse
rates near or in excess of 7.5c/km as well as a ribbon of higher
theta-e on its lead nose. while model forecast soundings are still
spilt, there is an increasing subset that advertise this in
combination with diurnal boundary mixing/growth to weaken our cap
sufficiently to allow for at least isolated to widely scattered
convective initiation as lift associated with this buoyancy gradient
is able to connect thru to the lower level moisture. should this
occur, ample instability is available for convection with an mlcape
gradient ranging from 1500-2500j/kg and equilibrium levels between
35-40kft. main limiting factor for strong/severe storms is weaker
column wind profiles that will be largely uni-directional shear only
20-25kts at best. that said, given the humid airmass and a well
mixed boundary layer, an isolated strong wind gust would be
possible. hail threat, while non-zero, is lesser with freezing
levels near 15kft. additional hazard is torrential rainfall and
localized flooding given the aforementioned humid airmass and warm
cloud layers exceeding 10kft.

overnight period brings the next chances for showers and storms as a
series of mcs`s lift into the great lakes. first of these, currently
over wi/il, carries the best shot at any severe potential due to its
arrival window latter part of the evening into early tonight. while
there is significant uncertainty to what degree this complex holds
together all the way into se mi, dependent on cold pool maintenance,
arrival of a sw llj strengthens column wind and subsequent shear
profiles. as such, severe wind gusts would be possible with any
surviving convection through early tonight before the nocturnal
boundary layer can attempt to establish itself. a secondary
midwestern mcs looks to then cross or clip the region late tonight-
early thursday morning. minimal severe chances with this window of
showers/storms given the timing falling in the diurnal instability
minima. primary impact instead is clearing out area instability to
start thursday.

thursday is expected to be similar to today as post-convective
subsidence and diurnal mixing promote clearing skies through the
morning hours. airmass remains unchanged with dewpoints hovering in
the lower 70s with sunnier skies again allowing temperatures to
climb into the low 90s with heat indices rising to the upper 90s to
near 100.

attention then turns to severe potential thursday evening-night
where spc has the area under a day 2 slight/enhanced risk outlook.
strong pv core rounding the base of the upper midwest trough
thursday afternoon sparks convection along the attendant surface
cold front over the midwest/plains. there is high confidence this
convection to organize and grow upscale whilst crossing the
mississippi river region while approaching the great lakes/ohio
valley. where confidence is still low is in how much instability
builds back into se mi over the course of thursday. there has been a
notable shift in a number of cam outputs (ie arw, mpas, hrdps) for
the main instability to hold near the state line promoting a
southward drift in the squall favoring better severe wind potentials
over the southern portions of the cwa into in/oh. that said, still
have a set (ie hrrr, nssl, nam nest) that favor better northerly
advection and hold a more northerly track towards the central and
northern cwa-where the current day 2 enhanced risk is. regardless,
wind gusts to 70mph would be the primary hazard with qlcs tornadoes
being a secondary threat given the convective mode.

cold front crosses the area friday morning ending any lingering
showers and ushering in a more seasonably average airmass for friday
and saturday. a secondary cold front drops out of northern ontario
and through the central great lakes early sunday bringing the next
chances for wider spread showers/storms with cooler air following to
start the work week.

marine...

multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through thursday night. a front is currently draped across
region which will try to develop some convection this afternoon. a
larger complex of severe storms west of lake michigan is forecast to
track east-northeast across lower mi later this evening bringing the
next chance of severe storms to the area. could be a lull through
part of thursday before a low pressure system tracks from iowa
through the straits thursday evening into the overnight. this would
push a stronger cold front through the region with the next round of
storms. wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail would be the
main threats with these storms. this front will pass through early
friday morning, bringing an uptick in westerly winds in its wake as
well as a brief period of drier conditions to start the weekend.

hydrology...

a moisture-rich environment remains in place today and thursday with
multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the next
two days. progressive nature of expected thunderstorms generally
limits widespread flooding concerns, although heavy downpours with
rainfall rates over an inch per hour will be possible. localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but is mostly confined to low-
lying, urban, or flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
update.......bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......drk
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.