Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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530
fxus61 kcle 011134
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
734 am edt thu oct 1 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
increased rain chances before sunrise this morning near the
lakeshore, and slightly increased rain chances tonight into
friday afternoon. also increased winds on lake erie this
morning through friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) light rain lingers near the lakeshore early this morning,
then very warm today followed by a soaking rain tonight into
friday.

2) cool and dry weather this weekend through mid next week.
frost headlines are possible monday night and tuesday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
rain showers overperformed this past evening and early this
morning in a zone of broad warm air advection and isentropic
ascent along and north of a warm front. this band of light rain
is gradually lifting north with the frontal boundary, but
increased pops along the lakeshore of northern ohio and nw pa
through 14z this morning to reflect a slower exit. additional
qpf will only be a trace to few hundredths of an inch.

by mid morning, any remaining showers will exit nw pa as the
area becomes firmly in the warm sector. a tightening pressure
gradient between surface high pressure over the mid atlantic
region and a cold front approaching from the western great lakes
will lead to gusty ssw winds over 20 knots at times, and this
combined with 850 mb temps rising to 17-18 c will boost highs
into the low 80s this afternoon. the aforementioned cold front
is associated with a deepening mid/upper trough over the
northern plains and northern/central great lakes, leading to
strong height falls over the southern great lakes and ohio
valley by tonight. this trough still looks to absorb the old
cut off low that impacted the desert southwest earlier in the
week, but the jet support and resultant surface wave on the
frontal boundary is trending weaker. this will result in more of
a frontal passage rain event tonight as opposed to a surface
wave riding along the boundary, so qpf is trending lighter.
nevertheless, the front will be slow to cross the region given
the strength of the ridge at the surface and aloft over the mid
atlantic and se conus, so expect the band of rain showers to
last from tonight into friday afternoon, only slowly ending from
nw to se. the right entrance of a modest 80+ knot h3 jet
rounding the base of the trough also supports enough
dynamics/frontogenesis for widespread rain showers tonight into
friday, so slightly increased pops from 23z this evening through
18z friday as the rain slowly sinks nw to se. minor instability
this evening could cause isolated thunder, but this will
largely be stratiform rain. overall, looking at 0.40 to 0.80
inches of qpf across the region, with the highest amounts in nw
ohio and near the lakeshore.

drier air will quickly work into the region friday evening and
friday night, but it will be the start of a much cooler pattern
as the elongated mid/upper trough takes up residence from the
northern plains through the great lakes and northeast conus, and
a strong canadian high at the surface builds down across the
great lakes. this will lead to a chilly night friday night, with
lows dipping into the low/mid 40s.

key message 2...
the mid/upper trough and canadian high will remain across the
great lakes saturday before another reinforcing shortwave and
associated surface low tracking near hudson bay brings another
cold front through the region sunday, effectively reloading the
trough and allowing an even more impressive 1025-1030 mb surface
high to build down from the upper midwest early next week. this
will keep cool and dry conditions in place, with temperatures
eventually averaging 10 degrees below normal monday and tuesday.
expect highs in the mid 60s saturday to slightly rebound into
the upper 60s to near 70 sunday before dropping into the upper
50s/low 60s monday and tuesday. lows in the mid 30s to low 40s
monday night and tuesday night could support the first frost of
the season in portions of interior north central and ne ohio and
nw pa. gradual moderation is expected by wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
the main message for aviation weather today is vfr conditions
are expected to continue today into this evening with high and
mid level clouds above 6000 feet through this evening. a cold
front with widespread rain showers will move in late tonight
through the end of this taf period or 12z friday morning. there
will be gradual lowering of ceilings after 03z this evening for
nwoh and later in time after 06z tonight neoh and nwpa. forecast
confidence is lower end mvfr is expected but there may be lower
into ifr towards towards the very end of the taf period or
closer to the 09z to 12z friday timeframe. rain showers will
also reduce visibility 3sm to 5sm during the late night hours.
winds will be southerly to southwesterly 8 to 13 knots later
today with afternoon gusts up to 20 knots ahead of the
approaching cold front through 00z. the winds will shift out of
the west to northwest late in the night around 10 knots late
tonight towards 12z friday morning.

outlook...non-vfr likely with rain showers and lower ceilings
behind a cold front late thursday night through late friday
morning.

&&

.marine...
ssw winds will increase on lake erie behind a warm front this
morning, with speeds of 10-15 knots through the day. these winds
will quickly turn n and briefly reach 15-25 knots late tonight
behind a strong cold front, so issued a short-fused small craft
advisory from 03-14z friday from the islands to conneaut where
criteria is most likely to be reached (winds and 3-5 foot
waves), but it will be choppy everywhere. n winds briefly
decrease to 10-15 knots friday morning through the afternoon
before briefly nearing 20 knots again friday evening, so another
headline may be needed friday evening into early friday night.

ne winds will average 5-15 knots by saturday as high pressure
builds across the great lakes before turning s at 5-10 knots
early sunday ahead of another cold front. winds then turn w and
eventually nw behind the front late sunday and increase to at
least 15-20 knots sunday night into monday, so another period of
small craft headlines will be possible. getting to be that time
of year!

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 am edt
friday for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...77
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 011020
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 am edt thu oct 1 2026

.key messages...

- window of mostly dry weather outside of a few scattered
showers will come to an end by this afternoon. chances for
showers (50-90%) and an isolated thunderstorms return this
afternoon into the overnight period. locally heavy rain is
possible, but overall flood concerns continue to appear low
at this time.

- dry conditions are expected this weekend into early next week,
with highs in the 60s, low 70s (warmest further south).
overnight lows will drop into the 40s. tuesday morning looks
to be the coldest night with lows dropping into the upper 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 415 am edt thu oct 1 2026

synoptic pattern continues to shift with the ridging to the
southeast pushing eastward over the next day or so. troughing
over the northern conus will push southeast into the great
lakes region and push the band of recent rain that has been in
place just to our north and west south through the cwa beginning
today through tomorrow morning in the form of a cold front. a
few embedded thunderstorms are possible with this frontal
passage but lack of any decent shear and instability any storms
should remain weak but in any storms heavy downpours will be
possible especially with pwat values around 1.75 to 2 inches.
wpc ero has our area mainly under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall but a small area mostly for the western portions of the
cwa is under a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

in the wake of the front on friday morning into the early
afternoon cooler temperatures and drier conditions will arrive
and with a more zonal flow in place aloft shall continue through
the weekend into next week. highs each day mainly in the 60s
with a few locations far south getting close to the 70 degree
mark. lows will also drop into the 40s each night beginning
saturday morning. the coldest morning looks to be tuesday with
lows getting into the upper 30s. time to make sure your furnaces
are tuned up for the season.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 618 am edt thu oct 1 2026

vfr conditions expected to continue through the first half of
the period or so with scattered light rain showers moving
through just south of the main boundary that will begin to push
southward later today bringing a more consolidated band of
rain showers through the remainder of the taf period and
lowering cigs to mvfr to ifr cats after 21z for ksbn and after
03z fri with the cool frontal boundary pushing southward through
the cwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 011039
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
639 am edt thu oct 1 2026

.key messages...

- warmer and much more humid today with periods of showers.

- coverage and intensity of rainfall increases later today with a
chance for locally heavy rain this evening and early tonight.

- cooler temperatures and drier weather arrives midday friday,
continuing through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.aviation...

broad moisture advection is observed from the gulf into the upper
midwest/great lakes this morning. se michigan resides on the eastern
periphery of the moisture gradient where stubborn low level dry air
has maintained mostly vfr conditions and light intensity showers.
these conditions will persist across much of the airspace into the
afternoon, aside from mbs where ongoing mvfr restrictions are
expected to continue. ceilings then begin to lower this afternoon-
evening from nw to se as the deformation axis finally dislodges east
as a cold front, bringing enough low level moisture to overcome the
dry air. greatest moisture pooling hugs the front, which is likely
to have a band of heavy rain associated with it. combination of
tropical moisture and heavy rain affords a period of sub-1.0 kft
ceiling potential and vsby reductions invof the frontal passage.
forecast soundings point toward an abrupt drop in cigs/vsby, leaving
uncertainty as to exactly when this begins/how long it lasts. an
aggressive drying trend post-front then scours out low cloud and
rain around daybreak friday, allowing quick improvements to cloud
trends friday morning.

d21/dtw convection...low potential for thunderstorms through this
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings below 5000 feet this morning becoming high after
00z this evening.

* low for thunderstorms this evening and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 434 am edt thu oct 1 2026

discussion...

significant tropospheric moistening was sampled via the 01.00z kdtx
raob, marked by vertical continuity in saturation and a measured
pwat of 1.70 inches. this modified tropically sourced air mass has
allowed overnight showers to percolate with ease beneath sustained
perturbed flow aloft. the latest forcing mechanism has been
attributed to a series of shortwave impulses positioned ahead of an
inbound longwave trough moving eastward over southern canada, and
downstream of a southern conus closed low. the southern wave has
been responsible for the influx of eastern pacific and gulf
moisture, upholding the appropriate environment for this extended
period of rainfall.

the low-level jet moisture connection is fully engaged early this
morning, with both increasing magnitude (30+ knots) and trajectory
continuity. latest progs indicate the confluent stream arcs back to
texas where the remnants of hurricane polo merge with gulf-wide
theta-e advection. additionally, the two synoptic waves will begin
to phase during the pm hours, leading to a rise in upper-level
divergence and local theta-e convergence. this lends continued
concern for the localized risk of heavy rainfall later today,
especially as a cold front extending from the northern system tracks
southeastward across lower michigan. the period of greatest concern
will be as the frontal slope engages the peak in low-level moisture
transport late this afternoon into the evening timeframe, while the
system`s deformation axis centers overhead. see the hydrology
section for additional details.

latest nwp suite indicates peak 3-hourly rainfall rates between 00z
and 06z tonight as the front pushes through. winds flip
northwesterly immediately behind the surface front tonight, although
showers will be slower to clear. once aggressive post-frontal system-
relative isentropic downglide builds in, rainfall will quickly
conclude. dry weather is then forecast by mid-morning friday as the
great lakes reside downstream of building 1028 mb high pressure
moving into the upper midwest. seasonably cool and dry as the ridge
dominates. a clipper system could bring a few sprinkles through
sunday morning, while thermal troughing persists. 850 mb
temperatures crater early next week, with sub-0c values possible.
morning frost concerns may arise should lows drop into the upper 30s.

marine...

southwesterly winds will continue out ahead of an approaching cold
front, which arrives and stalls over southern lower michigan today.
with warm advection leading to more stable profiles and showers
moving through during this timeframe, wind gusts are expected to top
out only around 25 knots. with the front hung up until night, the
post frontal cold advection now looks slower; thus, the potential for
northwest wind gusts reaching or exceeding 25 knots looks to be late
in the day on friday as 850 mb temps lower into the mid single
digits by friday.

a large area of high pressure then builds in behind the departing
cold front on friday into saturday. this will bring lighter winds
for the first half of the weekend. a stronger low tracking through
the northern great lakes for the second half of the weekend brings
another opportunity for winds to reach or exceed 25 knots over lake
huron.

hydrology...

a mid to late week rainfall episode continues today, peaking this
evening and early tonight. it occurs as tropical moisture streams
into lower michigan, along and ahead of an approaching midwest cold
front. a more persistent band of rain is established across the area
this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region by
tonight, when moisture parameters peak. high confidence in rainfall
totals up to 1 inch and medium confidence in totals over an inch.
the low-end chance for system rainfall totals to reach 2 inches
requires a slower frontal passage, leading to a longer window for
persistent rainfall. the chance exists for minor flooding of low-
lying areas and ponding on roads across the region until the rain
quickly ends post-front friday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf/ss/kgk
hydrology....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.