Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 111129
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 am edt sat jul 11 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) patchy fog possible for areas along and east of the i-71 corridor
with low end chances for precipitation through saturday evening.

2) high pressure builds into the region on sunday with dry weather
and above average temperatures likely through next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
showers and thunderstorms will continue to taper off across western
ohio over the next few hours as the frontal boundary to drifts to
the south. with plenty of low level moisture due to the
precipitation today and calm winds overnight, there will be
potential for patchy fog to develop across the region. generally,
areas along and to the east of the i-71 corridor could see fog this
morning with increasing probability further east. youngstown and
sites just across the boarder into pennsylvania are already seeing
visibility drop down to less than half a mile. will continue to
monitor trends over the coming hours to see how widespread fog may
develop. by mid morning, any fog should clear out and conditions
will improve.

the frontal boundary across the ohio valley will have more upper
level support this afternoon as a vort max moves west to east
through the region. this will bring low end precipitation chances
mainly to areas south of us route 30. isolated nuisance flooding is
possible in some of the stronger storms due to the slow storm
motion, but the better probability will be to the south. as the
upper level support moves off to the east, precipitation chances
will decrease into the evening to be dry by tonight.

key message 2...
a strong upper level ridge will begin to build across central conus
on sunday with surface high pressure building across the great
lakes. flow across the region will be fairly weak through monday,
but will shift to be out of the west by tuesday and temperatures
will increase to be above average for the middle of the week. given
the placement of the ridge, there won`t be as much moisture being
pulled up north, so dew points should stay lower compared to last
week limiting elevated heat indices. regardless, probabilistic heat
risk increases into the major category for portion of the region
starting tuesday as heat indices will still climb into the mid 90s.
concurrently, a trough will develop across eastern canada and conus
that will bring west-northwesterly flow across the eastern great
lakes. unlikely to bring any precipitation to the region, it may
assist in keeping temperatures down a few degrees across eastern
ohio into pennsylvania.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
areas of fog and ifr (or lower) ceilings are expected through
the overnight hours through to about 1-2 hours after sunrise
this morning. visibilities as low as 1/4 sm and ceilings down to
200-300 ft will be possible. duration and persistence of fog is
expected to be greatest at and near kyng.

scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
along and south of us-30. added a tempo tsra for kmfd and kcak
for this. convection dissipated by 00z, with quiet weather
tonight. patchy br is possible at kyng, kcak, and kmfd.

light and variable winds this morning will become 8-12 knots
out of the northeast with sporadic gusts to 20 knots. slightly
stronger winds are expected near the lake erie shoreline. winds
gradually diminish to around 5 knots by tonight.

outlook...non-vfr with patchy fog possible early monday
morning.

&&

.marine...
northeasterly winds expected today through sunday. conditions
will be choppy but expected to be just below small craft
advisory criteria with 2 to 4 foot waves. northeast winds
decrease tonight then increase again on sunday afternoon with
winds around 15 knots and waves around 2 to 4 feet again.

a moderate risk for rip currents is expected from the islands
eastward to geneva-on-the lake after 1 pm today and again
sunday. swimming is discouraged for both of these periods.

marine conditions improve monday as high pressure builds
overhead. winds become southwest tuesday as high pressure
departs to the southeast. waves generally expected to be less
than 1 foot. by wednesday, winds turn more westerly, with waves
potentially increasing to 2-3 feet in the eastern basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 110930
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
530 am edt sat jul 11 2026

.key messages...

- there is low chance (20-30%) for widely scattered showers and
storms south of us 30 today.

- less humid and and dry on sunday.

- dry and trending warmer next week with highs into the upper
80s to mid 90s by tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 am edt sat jul 11 2026

a trend toward drier and less humid conditions will be the story
this weekend as a slow moving, convectively enhanced mid-level
impulse, bypasses off to the south in the vicinity of a subtle
convergence zone sagging into southern portions of il/in/oh
today. with that said, widely scattered showers/storms cannot be
ruled out south of us 30 today in an area of weak deformation
and differential heating.

a pattern shift back to july heat remains the focus into next week
as an expansive upper level ridge and capped theta-e axis folds east
over the upper midwest and western/southern great lakes. luckily the
more focused moisture return should remain shunted off the southwest
which should keep heat indices from getting out of control like our
previous heat wave. still expect highs into the upper 80s to mid 90s
by tuesday and wednesday, with peak pm heat indices mid 90s to near
100f.

ensembles generally agree on blocking breaking down and retrograding
westward late in the week into next weekend which could bring a
frontal boundary and associated chances for convection back into the
forecast.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 530 am edt sat jul 11 2026

widely scattered showers and storms will generally fester
south of the terminals near a weak front today. kfwa appears to
be close to enough to this boundary for a period of mvfr to low
vfr restrictions this morning, though confidence remains low.
vfr otherwise as drier air continues to make slow inroads into
northern in this weekend.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 111054
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
654 am edt sat jul 11 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather and near-normal temperatures this weekend.

- high confidence for above normal temperatures (90+) next week.

&&

.aviation...

the main aviation concern over the next 6 hours is a small pocket of
ifr stratus spreading west across fnt/ptk. det is currently right on
the southern edge of this stratus, so added scattered mentions of
ifr clouds for now. given the current westward trajectory of these
ifr ceilings, right now do not expect them to make it into dtw or
yip. however, we may still see a brief window this morning where mvfr
ceilings develop across the southern terminals, so did leave the
tempo in there for now.

otherwise, we remain in between high pressure off to our northwest
and low pressure well south of the region, so we will maintain
northeast flow throughout this taf period. cloud cover will
gradually diminish throughout the day as drier air moves into the
region. tonight through sunday, skies are expected to remain mostly
clear. at this time, no concerns for any br/fg development tonight
given the drier air mass moving in for the weekend.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through late morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 307 am edt sat jul 11 2026

discussion...

an extended period of dry weather along with increasing temperature
trends will lead to above normal temperature with highs in the 90s
by next week. a strong heat dome located across the continental west
and centered over the rockies will fold over into the midwest/ great
lakes through the weekend and into next week as multiple mid-level
waves carve through the southern and central canadian provinces. for
this weekend, mid-level heights increase as diffuse high pressure
settles across the great lakes, with the elongated pressure axis of
around 1022mb pivoting over southern michigan sunday into monday.
there is just enough low-level moisture to likely support some
afternoon cu this afternoon which will lead to mostly sunny skies
tomorrow. seasonal normal temperatures expected this weekend
characterized by highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

upper-level ridge axis will fold into the great lakes monday
into tuesday, greatly enhancing mid-level subsidence as 850 mb
temperatures of 20-22c arrives overhead. this will promote extended
periods of sunshine, while the arrival of the thermal ridge brings
likely chances to see highs aoa 90 as early as monday, but most
favorable by tuesday. temperatures reaching into the mid 90s will be
most plausible across the urban metro region with an additional
signal located across the tri-cities. the latter of which coincides
with the core of the low-level thermal ridge, where deep mixing may
be augmented locally by weak downslope flow into the saginaw valley.
continuation of above normal temperatures will be possible thursday
and friday but high uncertainty to achieve 90+ given better
northwest to southeast orientation of 500mb height contours. this
increases probabilities for upstream convection and/or cloud debris
to progress into se mi, modifying temperatures, especially with any
precipitation.

marine...

high pressure situated over the northern great lakes region will
gradually strengthen and shift southward saturday into sunday. this
will lead to quieter marine conditions through the entire weekend.
lighter northeast winds today will become variable as the high
passes overhead.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....ja
discussion...am
marine.......ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.