Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
719 pm est wed dec 31 2025

.synopsis...
strengthening low pressure will move through the eastern great
lakes tonight, dragging an arctic cold front through the region.
weak high pressure will build into the ohio valley thursday and
remain through the weekend while a trough of low pressure
remains across the great lakes. a weak clipper system will then
move through the great lakes monday.

&&

.near term /through thursday night/...

evening clipper and linear snow squall:

mid afternoon water vapor loops show the mid/upper shortwave
associated with this clipper low diving through the western and
central great lakes. as this shortwave continues to dive into
the southern great lakes this evening, light snow will break out
in the 21-22z timeframe from nw to se due to broad forcing for
ascent beneath the exit region of a 140+ knot h3 jet streak.
this will bring areawide snow for the evening, but the period of
interest continues to be a potential intense linear snow squall
along the arctic front mid to late evening. a lake-effect snow
band that dropped a narrow strip of heavy snow along the
lakeshore areas of lake and ashtabula counties this morning and
early this afternoon has mostly drifted offshore ahead of the
arctic front. as the front crosses the lake this evening, it
will capture the lake-effect band and rapidly push it inland
which will be our potential snow squall set up. rap bufkit
forecast soundings show deepening instability in the 00z to 03z
timeframe as 850-700 mb temps cool with resultant lake induced
equilibrium levels rising above 7000 feet. this combined with
strong omega (lift) through a saturated dgz and strong low-level
convergence along the front all support the snow squall. timing
has slowed slightly among href cams, and expect the squall to
push onshore from ktol to keri in the 01-02z timeframe, reaching
a kfdy to kcak and kyng line by 02-03z and clearing the u.s. 30
corridor by 04z. this will bring a brief period of heavy snow
and gusty winds above 35 knots supporting whiteout conditions.
given the timing of this coinciding with new years eve
festivities, we continue to heavily message the snow squall.

lake-effect tonight through thursday:

behind the arctic front and snow squall, weak shortwave ridging
and associated drier air and subsidence should largely shut down
the snowfall, so expect most areas to be dry from about 06z
tonight through thursday. northwesterly boundary layer flow and
moderate lake induced instability as equilibrium levels hover
around 6-7 thousand feet will generate scattered snow showers
and flurries in the higher terrain, inland primary snowbelt of
far ne ohio and nw pa, but additional accumulations will be
about 1 inch or less. the exception will be in southern and
eastern portions of erie county and northern crawford county
where a well-modeled lake huron band could put down an
additional 3 to 5 inches tonight and early thursday morning
before drifting east into ny as the flow backs.

snowfall totals:

as stated above, the bulk of the snow will occur this evening
and early tonight associated with the clipper and lake enhanced
snow squall along the arctic front. expect additional amounts of
2 to 5 inches in much of north central and ne ohio where the
winter weather advisory is in effect. far eastern cuyahoga
county could see as much as 6 inches of additional snow, with
generally 4 to 7 additional inches across lake, geauga, and
ashtabula counties where lake-effect snow warning remains in
effect. the bigger totals will be in nw pa where an additional
5-10 inches (locally up to 12) is expected. the greatest amounts
will be in southern and eastern erie county and northern
crawford county. outside of these headline areas, amounts of 1
to 3 inches are expected in the rest of north central and
northwest ohio.

additional lake-effect snow thursday night:

after the break for most areas thursday, another weak mid/upper
shortwave/clipper will progress through the great lakes thursday
night. increasing moisture and convergence ahead of the
associated surface trough and well-aligned westerly flow will
generate an impressive band near or just offshore of ne ohio and
nw pa. there is uncertainty in the placement of this band and
how far inland it will push, but another period of deep moisture
and lift through the dgz and increasing equilibrium levels
supports at least a short window of heavy snow in parts of lake,
northern geauga, ashtabula, erie, and northern crawford counties
(if it makes it that far south). have additional amounts of 2
to 5 inches for now thursday night into friday morning, with the
greatest amounts in erie county. this may need additional
advisories.

temperatures:

lows tonight will fall into the teens to single digits, with
highs thursday in the upper teens to low 20s in the deep arctic
airmass. this will lead to subzero wind chills tonight and
thursday morning. lows thursday night will generally be in the
teens.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
the lake-effect snow from thursday night/friday morning should
shift up the shoreline during the afternoon as the boundary
layer flow backs ahead of a more defined area of surface ridging
building into the ohio valley late friday through saturday. this
will support mainly dry conditions friday afternoon through the
weekend. however, continued broad mid/upper troughing over the
great lakes and northeast conus and cyclonic flow around the
hudson bay low will keep arctic air in place, with weak
shortwaves continuing to pivot through the great lakes during
the weekend. this will keep lake-effect snow bands going through
the weekend, but a primarily sw to wsw boundary layer flow will
direct the bulk of this into western ny. kept chance pops in nw
pa at times from friday afternoon into sunday for snow showers
to occasionally drift into that area, but otherwise, it will be
dry and cold to start 2026.

highs will be stuck in the mid to upper 20s friday and saturday,
with lows in the teens friday night and saturday night.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
surface ridging will maintain dry conditions sunday outside of
some lake-effect snow showers/flurries in nw pa. a weak clipper
system still looks to drop through the great lakes monday into
monday night, so maintained chances for snow showers, mainly in
far northern ohio and nw pa. this system has been trending
weaker and warmer, so do not expect much accumulation.
thereafter, the lingering great lakes and northeast conus trough
will lift out for mid and late week as a quasi-zonal pacific-
based pattern takes over much of the country, so tuesday and
wednesday continue to trend warmer, and this warming may
continue the rest of the week leading to a short break in
winter. highs in the low to mid 30s monday will likely reach the
low 40s tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
wnw`erly to nw`erly and predominantly cyclonic flow aloft, and
embedded disturbances, affect our region through 00z/fri. at the
surface, an arctic front will sweep se`ward through our region
between ~00z/thurs and ~05z/thurs. behind the front, a ridge
builds from the north-central united states and vicinity into
much of our region as a trough lingers over lake erie and
vicinity through 00z/fri. ahead of the front, our regional
surface winds trend sw`erly around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 20 to 25 knots. behind the front, nw`erly winds around 5 to
15 knots back gradually toward wsw`erly through 00z/fri in
response to the building ridge. the nw`erly winds will gust up
to 20 to 25 knots at times for several hours behind the front.

widespread snow, steady to heavy at times, associated with the
disturbances aloft, arctic front, and lake-enhancement downwind of
lake erie, will impact our region this evening. this widespread snow
should end from northwest to southeast between ~03z/thurs and
~08z/thurs following the passage of the front at the surface and
aloft. in addition, a narrower band of steady to heavy snow is
expected along the surface front and should be accompanied by
surface winds as strong as 20 knots gusting up to 30 knots for a
brief time period. visibility will range between mvfr and lifr in
the widespread snow and ceilings will range between mvfr and ifr
in/near this snow. behind the widespread snow, widespread ceilings
in the 2kft to 3.5kft agl range, primarily dry weather, and mainly
vfr visibility are expected to accompany the building surface ridge.
however, multiple bands of lake-effect snow (les) of varying
intensity are expected to stream generally se`ward from lake
erie and impact ne oh/nw pa and vicinity through ~13z/thurs.
thereafter, les will stream generally ese`ward and then e`ward
from lake erie and impact far-ne oh, nw pa, and vicinity as mean
low-level flow backs from nw`erly to w`erly. visibility should
vary between mainly mvfr and lifr in the les.

outlook...lake-effect snow with non-vfr should impact portions
of ne oh and nw pa thursday night into friday and again this
sunday. in addition, periods of widespread snow with non-vfr may
impact portions of northern oh and nw pa thursday night and
again this sunday night into monday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will continue across much of the lake
tonight into thursday as a cold front ushers in northwest winds of
25 to 30 knots. elevated west to northwest flow of 20 to 25 knots
will persist across the eastern and perhaps portions of the central
basin through friday night. conditions will gradually improve by
saturday as west to northwest flow diminishes to 10 to 15 knots
through sunday. winds will shift towards the southwest by monday, 10
to 15 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 am est thursday for ohz010-011-
020>023-031>033.
lake effect snow warning until 7 am est thursday for
ohz012>014-089.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est thursday for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est thursday for lez143>145.
small craft advisory until 4 am est saturday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...garuckas
near term...garuckas
short term...garuckas
long term...garuckas
aviation...jaszka
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service northern indiana
848 pm est wed dec 31 2025

.key messages...

- light snow, along with some patchy freezing drizzle, will slowly
taper off this evening. light snow showers are possible into the
overnight hours closer to lake michigan. additional
accumulations should be an inch or less.

- falling temperatures the remainder of the night will freeze any
remaining moisture on untreated roads. use caution overnight if
attending any new years celebrations.

- seasonably cold and mainly dry thursday through this weekend.

&&

.update...
issued at 828 pm est wed dec 31 2025

leading edge of the arctic front well defined on radar,
currently from knox to warsaw to napoleon. as the band passes
overhead, highly variable vsbys have been occurring with pockets
of 1/4 to 1/2 mile for a few minutes before improving. as the
colder air filters in, any wet, untreated roads are beginning to
freeze over, with reports of icy conditions north of the toll
road into lower mi. ahead of the front, overall returns have
been slowly decreasing but light snow still being reported.
behind the front, returns have also been decreasing, but enough
low level moisture and lift is resulting in light snow and even
some freezing drizzle. the back edge of the precip, extending
from benton harbor to marshall mi, will translate se bringing an
end to the measurable precip for most areas. confidence in lake
response is still rather low despite favorable delta t`s as
depth of moisture isn`t overly favorable. will try to clean up
the forecast for the next several hours to adjust for current
trends.

if you are out for any new years celebrations overnight, make
sure to allow plenty of time to reach your destinations and err
on the side of caution for travel if there are any mitigating
circumstances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 108 pm est wed dec 31 2025

a vigorous mid level pv anomaly will drop southeast through the
eastern great lakes this afternoon into tonight. associated
height falls along with a subtle mid level impulse and favorable
left exit upper jet support (130 kt 250 mb jet) undercutting
this pv anomaly in northwest flow will allow light snow to
blossom over the local area between 19-22z. a brief period of
heavier snow showers (or possibly a few snow squalls) then
becomes a concern from north to south in the roughly the 22-03z
window along a sharpening low level baroclinic zone. 0-1 km
theta-e lapse rates near -1 to -2 k/km immediately along this
fgen response, maximized from the michigan border southeast
through northeast in and northwest oh with the greatest
potential for a few snow squalls. quick movement will hold snow
totals in the 0.5-2" range for most, with some lake enhancement
bringing totals more into the 2-3" around south bend and
southwest mi. untreated roads are likely slick and snow covered
for most this evening.

post-frontal caa and northwest flow will filter in then into
thursday with widely scattered lake effect flurries and snow
showers, mainly tonight in our typical nw flow les belts where an
additional inch of snow may fall. another low amplitude perturbation
follows through the great lakes later thursday into thursday night
with additional chances for snow flurries. the remainder of the week
into early next week appears relatively quiet and warmer otherwise
as heights relax into a lower amplitude west-northwest split flow
regime.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 447 pm est wed dec 31 2025

main focus remains area area of light snow impacting both sites
into this evening. highly variable vsbys are expected in heavier
bands of snow showers. over ifr conditions to dominate with
occasional lifr in heavier bands through the first few hours of
the valid period. conditions do slowly improve thereafter,
especially at kfwa where brief window of lake effect will remain
confined in the ksbn area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
633 pm est wed dec 31 2025

.key messages...

- area of light snow persist mainly along and south of m-59 through
the evening hours. additional accumulation of up to an inch.

- windchills are expected to range in the single digits below zero
late tonight and thursday morning.

- seasonally cold weather will persist into the weekend. windchills are
expected to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above
zero.

- flurries or light snow chances are possible both saturday and
sunday nights.

&&

.aviation...

area of snow will steadily vacate the region to the south over the
next 2-3 hours, as notably drier conditions develop with the passage
of an arctic front. lingering window for vfr cloud early tonight,
before pockets of clear sky emerge as magnitude of drying overwhelms
ongoing lake moisture flux within northwest flow. with that, there
remains potential for some intervals of vfr lake cloud and flurries
to migrate into the region overnight. a gusty post-frontal
northwest wind will mark conditions throughout the night, peaking
this evening around 25 knots. moisture will increase again thursday
afternoon as flow becomes westerly, offering a higher likelihood for
vfr cloud and the possibility for flurries.

for dtw...accumulating snow will persist through roughly 02z, before
drier conditions emerge thereafter.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet this evening. low overnight into
thursday morning.

* high for precipitation type of snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 240 pm est wed dec 31 2025


wave of isentropic lift and midlevel moisture advection will track
across southeast michigan this afternoon and tonight. deep column
saturation is anticipated, leading to widespread light to moderate
snow across all of southeast michigan in the 19-02z time window.
respectable large scale dynamics for lift with an already strong
potential vorticity anomaly digging at an almost due equatorward
trajectory. conservation of vorticity and the influence of
increasing cyclonic curvature is forecasted to result in sharpening
925-850mb and 850-700mb frontogenesis particularly over the southern
half of the cwa after 21z. steepened lapse rates between 1.5-4.0 kft
agl on the north side of the cold front, and supersaturation with
respect to ice will lead to the potential for some brief snow
squalls. uvvs through the dgz and surface temperatures in the 20s
supports high lsrs and a powdery snow at better than 16:1. eps data
for once shows a very tightly clustered solution space with regards
to snow amounts with the control, mean, and interquartile range
around 1.0 to 1.5 inches at detroit, pontiac, flint and bad axe. a
short duration of forcing is expected to be the limiting factor in
this event. snow covered and slippery roadways are certainly
possible and any communication of impacts will be better handled by
short fused products.

cold advection will drop temperatures into the single digits late
tonight and daybreak thursday. mixed northwesterly flow of 10 to 20
mph is expected to result in windchills in the single digits below
zero. cold troughing will then be in place and largely remain the
influence over the region going into the weekend. the control run of
the ecmwf has been bullish with some very light qpf spreading into
lower michigan thursday evening/night. decent enough phased upper
level jet forcing which should be good for seeding, but forecast
soundings show very little frontal structure aloft. with 850mb
temperatures around -15c, would not be surprised if there are virga
returns on radar with some flurries. added flurries to the forecast
but given the lack of any good qpf signal in the models and to
maintain collaboration will not increase pops.

differential geopotential height rises with confluence aloft will
largely support ridging at the surface friday and this wekeend. with
that stated, fast northwest flow is projected to direct some weak
shortwave energy into the region at times. one shortwave will be
saturday night, but the wave should undergo significant dampening as
it becomes increasingly detached away from the exit region forcing.
light snow shower chances saturday night mainly north of the area.
the next potential shortwave that is advertised over the region
early monday will have a potential for more synoptic scale lift
support. quick look at plan view progs show a much better setup for
warm air advection in addition to upper level jet forcing. highs
monday and tuesday look to be at or slightly above normal.

marine...

weak clipper system currently dropping through lower mi at time of
discussion drags an arctic cold front through the central/southern
great lakes this evening-early tonight. winds flip to the northwest
post-front with a 2-3hr uptick in wind gusts towards 30-35kts in the
immediate wake before slightly diminishing back towards 25-30kts for
the night. given the marginal nature in duration of gusts reaching
35kt gales, have continued to hold off on any headline for lake
huron. arctic air filtering south however supports areas of heavy
freezing spray, particularly across the northern half of lake huron,
warranting the issuance of a heavy freezing spray warning for these
waters. troughing influence holds across the great lakes thursday
into friday resulting in persistent moderate (20-30kts) wnw winds.
in combination with an arctic airmass lingering overhead, freezing
spray lingers through the end of the week. additional weak clippers
round the trough into the region this weekend bringing light snow
chances however a still fairly diffuse gradient keeps winds sub
25kts.

prev discussion...
issued at 234 pm est wed dec 31 2025

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 10 am est thursday for lhz361-
362.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est thursday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 am est thursday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.