Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

.what has changed...
no major forecast changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) pleasant fall conditions expected to continue through the
weekend. patchy frost possible tonight into early tuesday
morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a canadian high pressure will linger over the area through
tuesday before a weak cold front begins to push east across the
area late wednesday into thursday. this frontal boundary is not
expected to result in any precipitation. ahead of it on
wednesday, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s
before falling back into the upper 60s to low 70s on friday. low
temperatures will be quite cool, especially tonight into tuesday
morning as amplified radiational cooling results in some areas
dropping into the upper 30s especially in the typical cooler
spots. continue to opt for holding off on a frost advisory given
the expected scattered nature. will continue to monitor
conditions over the next couple hours.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr continues. winds nearly calm overnight become southwesterly less
than 10kts tuesday. few-sct cumulus fl040 off lake erie at
eastern terminals tonight and tuesday. no ceilings in forecast
but low potential at eri between 10-16z.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected most of this week.

&&

.marine...
the small craft advisory has been cancelled for the nearshore
waters from avon to geneva-on-the-lake.

gusty northwest winds across the eastern basin of 15-20 knots
will continue into tonight, resulting in waves of 3-5 feet
pushing into the nearshore. these winds are expected to persist
a bit longer than previously forecast, so the small craft
advisory has been extended until 4z tuesday for the waters from
geneva-on-the-lake to ripley new york. as the high pressure
becomes more dominant over the area, winds will weaken across
lake erie to 5-10 knots through tuesday. late tuesday, a low
pressure is expected to move east across canada, ultimately
moving a cold front east late wednesday into thursday. ahead of
this boundary, increased gradient will result in southwest winds
of 20-25 knots tuesday night through wednesday. this will
likely need an additional small craft advisory. as the cold
front pushes east, winds will back to be northwesterly and
weaken to 10-15 knots. high pressure returns by the end of the
week and allow variable winds of 5-10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez148-149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...26
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions are expected through this work week.

- after starting out with slightly below normal high temps,
highs slightly above normal take over for the end of the work
week.

- cold tuesday morning with lows dipping down to the 30s for
some areas north of us-6.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 103 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

surface high pressure moves through tonight and shifts off the east,
tuesday. this opens the door for warm advection to be on our
doorstep. warm advection often pairs with entering cloud cover,
usually of the mid to upper cloud variety. this time, both the rap
and the nam are picking up on 850 mb moisture that remains overhead
for a good portion of the area before some upper moisture pushes
into northwestern areas. if that 850 mb moisture can condense into
clouds, that really becomes a problem for creating frost overnight
tonight because it affects especially those areas that have a chance
to dip down into the upper 30s. chances are at about 15 to 25
percent of less than 38f across parts of st joseph, branch, and
hillsdale counties of mi. if about 3 hours of such
temperatures occurs, frost becomes more possible, but today`s
models came in a little warmer making it less possible. soil
moisture content is lower across the area that could receive the
frost and therefore, could enhance radiational cooling. if
radiational cooling is able to take effect because cloud cover
stays away long enough or altogether and winds slacken enough to
allow decoupling, this frost still occur. it probably stays
more relegated to outlying areas though. at this point, given
the above combination of factors, have held off with any frost
headlines. with the warm advection that ensues tuesday, temps
are forecast to warm through wednesday, when mid to upper 70s
are possible.

a cold front washes out wednesday to thursday and brings high
temps back to the upper 60s and low 70s for thursday and friday.
then, another trough enters the western us and warm advection
brings us back securely into the 70s for saturday with low 80s
possible on sunday. the warm front is producing rain in model
output for friday night/saturday morning, but it appears to be
too dry in our area to see the rain. it`s also interesting to
see that the system in the south that tried to get up to the
area next sunday to provide some rain is staying just south of
the area as the dry air hangs tough. as long as this lasts, it
could be until the following week before we see any appreciable
rain.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 630 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

high pressure will bring light winds and vfr conditions to the
area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
805 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- frost advisory tonight for areas along and north of i-69.

- seasonably average temperatures return for the midweek period with
little to no rain chances.

- much above normal temperatures possible by next sunday.

&&

.aviation...

prevailing vfr conditions with clear skies for bulk of tonight.
northwest winds will continue to weaken this evening and trend toward
calm late tonight. winds shift southerly tomorrow morning while
holding at or below 10 knots for much of the day. a few higher gusts
towards 20 knots will be possible across kmbs and possibly kfnt.
sct/bkn coverage of mid and high clouds will also exist tomorrow as
the next plume of moisture arrives.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through tuesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 325 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

discussion...

confluent flow amidst a rising mid-level height field prolongs a
period of deep subsidence over the region into this evening. mostly
clear skies today have been augmented by shallow lake effect clouds
within breezy northwest cold advection. as the anticylone works in
tonight and early tuesday, winds go nearly calm and the cold
advection ceases. max temps only in the lower 60s this afternoon and
dew points mixing into the 30s will prime temps to quickly fall into
the 40s this evening before settling into the 30s overnight for most
areas away from the metro detroit heat island and immediate
lakeshores. given the expectation for decoupling of the boundary
layer, deep layer dry air, and mostly clear skies, frost formation
will be likely for much of northern se mi early tuesday morning.
highest confidence in this will be along and north of the i-69
corridor where the surface ridge tracks and nbm hourly probabilities
for temps below 37f have jumped to the 70 to 90% range. thin high
cloud still likely to make an appearance before dawn, but shouldn`t
dampen frost prospects much. a frost advisory has been issued in
collaboration with neighboring offices.

notable warm advection commences daytime tuesday as the ridge axis
passes east and milder air is drawn northward by the next wave
passing into northern ontario. system relative isentropic ascent
spreads overhead in waves through the day, but the best dynamics and
moisture advection are displaced well north of the local area.
ensemble space shows potential for a few sprinkles as far south as
the saginaw bay region, otherwise just some passing mid and high
clouds at times as milder air brings highs into the mid to upper 60s.

the system`s cold front is modeled to sink across the area wednesday
afternoon, through an environment that continues to lack deeper
moisture and upper support for ascent. a wedge of higher 1000-850mb
theta-e precedes the front, allowing temps to peak in the lower 70s
before they fall into the 40s behind the front wednesday night.
slightly cooler, but seasonable temperatures dominate the late week
as a broad thermal trough settles over much of the great lakes. some
lake effect showers possible in this pattern, but the bulk are
forecast to hold across the northern lakes. a stronger ridge is
favored to develop over the region this weekend, with a broad
midwest llj advecting much warmer temperatures into the vicinity by
sunday. solution spread remains high in the ensemble space, but
fairly high confidence exists for highs in the 70s and a handful of
ensemble members suggest potential for temperatures in the lower 80s.

marine...

high pressure currently building in from the western great lakes
drifts over the region tonight through early tuesday promoting
rapidly diminishing winds. influence of said high quickly wanes
daytime tuesday as low pressure slides across northern ontario
resulting in strengthening south-southwest wind locally. typical
uncertainty wrt to thermal stability given active warm advection.
forecast soundings advertise borderline neutral to slightly stable
conditions near the water when the strongest gradient arrives early
tuesday night. a few gusts to gales are possible over the north-
central waters given the favorable long fetch but local
probabilistic guidance continues to downplay a multi-hour period of
gales (<20% chance). running forecast will favor peak gusts in the
low 30kt range with no gale headlines, though small advisories are
likely for the saginaw bay/tip of the thumb. surface cold front
eventually crosses wednesday flipping flow to the northwest with
persistent james bay troughing maintaining moderate gusts (20-30kts)
through thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.