Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
148
fxus61 kcle 191755
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
155 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

.what has changed...
with this update, slowed the progression of showers east across
the area today given current trends and placement of the
boundaries. widespread precipitation is still expected tonight
into sunday with similar rainfall totals as previous forecasts.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers with isolated thunderstorms will gradually spread east
across the area today, becoming more widespread tonight. heavy
rainfall and localized flooding remain the primary concerns.

2) an unsettled weather pattern lingers through much of next week
bringing the potential for multiple rounds of precipitation and
cooler temperatures.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
this morning, a mid-level ridge over the gulf coast is resulting in a
near zonal flow over much of the upper us with a developing trough
over the rocky mountain region. widespread showers are being
observed upstream of the area as an upper level shortwave provides
energy for development on the northern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. this pattern will slowly drift east, resulting
in the showers to gradually spread east across the area today.
initial showers this morning are expected to only impact the
western/southwestern counties as development and storm motion
follows the instability gradient. however, with a weakening high
pressure centered over the northern great lakes pushes east, a warm
front associated with a surface low over midwest will be able to
nudge further north towards the cwa. this boundary will likely
become the focus for additional shower development and will
ultimately act as a path that the low pressure will follow into the
southern great lakes region. as this boundary and the low get closer
to the area tonight, showers are expected to become widespread
across the entire area with periods of heavy rain possible
overnight. on sunday, this low will drag a strong cold front
southeast through the area, again enhancing shower and possible
thunderstorms development along it. conditions should begin to dry
out from north to south on sunday afternoon as this boundary pushes
through.

there remains some uncertainty with this forecast, especially in
regards to how far north the aforementioned warm front will lift,
however confidence continue to grow in regards to the potential for
heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding. the current
forecast through sunday afternoon has 1-1.5 inches of rain falling
along a line from cleveland to youngstown and west with portions of
far ne oh and nw pa expected to get between 0.75-1 inch of rainfall.
deepening warm cloud layers and anonymously high pwat values are
expected to couple with storm motion parallel to the flow and result
in showers training. in areas impacted by this training, high qpf
values can be expected. to highlight this concern, wpc has placed
much of the area in a day 1 slight (2 of 4) ero with portions of ne
oh and nw pa in a day 1 marginal (1 of 4) ero. given the potential
for showers, widespread cloud cover, and the area likely staying
north of the warm front, there is minimal risk of severe weather
although a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. high
temperatures today and sunday will climb into the 70s with overnight
lows tonight dropping into the 60s.

key message 2...
an active weather pattern is expected to persist through much of
next week as multiple midlevel troughs move east across the northern
us, bringing the chance for multiple rounds of precipitation and the
first real taste of fall. some models have continued to suggest a
cut off low developing over the region midweek and persisting
through late week. this pattern would support a northerly flow,
keeping cool temperatures around, but given model divergence this
far out and the inherent uncertainty, timing of any precipitation
after midweek and the exact temperatures may adjust some in coming
forecasts. the current forecast suggests that highs beginning on
monday into next weekend will be in the 60s with overnight lows
dropping into the 50s with patches in the 40s across nwpa.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
multiple rounds of rain showers with a low embedded thunder risk
through the taf period. initially, we are starting with mainly
vfr conditions with pockets of mvfr/ifr due to mainly lower
visibilities this afternoon/evening but will trend towards
ifr/lifr late tonight into sunday due to lower ceilings.
heavier rain accompanied by isolated lightning will be difficult
to predict in this pattern but is most most likely very late
tonight into sunday morning.

southeast winds of 5-10 knots will trend toward southwest
tonight before becoming north by late sunday morning into early
sunday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
as high pressure begins to shift out of the region, a warm front is
expected to slowly push north towards the southern great lakes
today. this will allow winds to remain from the east at 5-15 knots
with nearshore waves 2 feet or less. this aforementioned front will
act as a path for a low pressure system to travel from the midwest
towards lake erie by sunday. this will result in shifting and
strengthening winds to be from the northeast at 15-20 knots by sunday
afternoon. this will result in waves building to 3-5 feet and this
period will likely be the start of prolonged hazardous marine
conditions across lake erie. as this low slowly shifts east, a
surface trough with a strong gradient will result in northeast winds
increasing to 20-25 knots beginning sunday night and possibly
persisting into mid-week. at times, these winds may even approach
gales, although the timing and duration of that potential remains
low. as these winds increase and persist, waves across lake erie are
expected to build to 6-8 feet with locally higher waves possible.
this period will be extremely dangerous to small crafts and will
likely increase rip currents along the southern shore of the lake. a
long duration small craft advisory will be needed as well as a beach
hazards statement through at least wednesday and will have to
monitor for any additional time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...saunders
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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941
fxus63 kiwx 191832
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
232 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

.key messages...

- several rounds of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms this weekend.
a flash flood watch remains in effect for portions of the
forecast area.

- low chances for scattered rain showers linger into the first half
of next week.

- cooler next week with highs only in the 60s monday through
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

active weather will continue through the weekend and periods of
rain will remain possible through at least midweek. a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary that is currently located just south
of the forecast area will be the focus for moderate to heavy
rain over the next 24 hours as a series of shortwaves move over
the region in near zonal flow. we are currently experiencing a
general lull in precip coverage/chances which will last through
mid evening before the next upper level impulse arrives. another
shortwave and theta-e surge is expected tonight, focusing
locally heavy rain and embedded thunder mainly along and north
of the us 30 corridor. another round then sunday afternoon/evening
is possible, especially if/where any boundary layer heating can
occur, resulting in heavier convective elements. localized
lowland and river/stream flooding, along with flash flooding,
remains a concern given the saturated ground and opportunties
for training elevated convection in this very moist 1.8-2.2 inch
pwat air mass. no changes were made to the flood watch for now
(in effect through sunday morning). latest guidance does favor
areas north of the us 30 corridor for higher probs for 1-3"
plus. luckily there are lower probabilities to the south, though
any additional rain in areas just south of fort wayne will
further exacerbate ongoing high water issues.

drier conditions are forecast for monday, although a weak
shortwave will move through monday afternoon bringing some light
rain showers, mainly south of us 30. then, a slow moving
through that is currently situated over the northern rockies
will make its way eastward over the next several days and
finally move into the great lakes on tuesday. as the low crosses
the area going into wednesday, periodic showers will continue,
and possibly persist into thursday and friday. high pressure
ridging will move in behind this system for mild and dry weather
next weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 133 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

a slow weakening trend in shower/storm activity has been noted
with the last band of showers now passing over kfwa. can`t rule
out a shower or 2 popping at times, but for the most most we
should see a lull in precip until after 00z sun. plenty of low
clouds will remain around, although there has been occasional
jumps to mvfr and even ifr upstream which are hard to capture in
tafs. have tried to capture trends as best as possible through 1
to 2z before precip chances return. main focus will be at ksbn
as additional showers and storms either form overhead or develop
over lk mi and n il and move in overnight. general ifr and
possibly lifr cigs can be expected with chances for thunder
mixed in. have left prob30 for actual thunder threat until we
can hopefully time out a better window for greater impacts. kfwa
could see much of the precip hold off till 6z or after so have
went more conservative here.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through sunday morning for inz005>009-012-014-015-
017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch through sunday morning for ohz015-024.
mi...flood watch through sunday morning for miz078>080-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel/cobb
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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326
fxus63 kdtx 191952
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
352 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

.key messages...

- periods of rain return tonight though sunday morning with locally
heavier rainfall possible at times, and a few thunderstorms.

- fog settles in overnight, becoming locally dense at times.

- lingering showers exit by midday sunday, followed by a cool and
cloudy pattern into the middle of the week.

- areas of showers are possible again late tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

modest mid/upper level westerlies reside over the northern great
lakes and ontario this afternoon while lower column flow orients
more southwesterly. this has led to steady moisture advection and
broad morning shower activity, most of which has briefly tapered
off. the main concern for this evening and overnight will be the
positioning of an elevated warm front which will anchor additional
shower activity, including the potential for a few thunderstorms.
latest nwp tendencies indicate a southward shift in this axis,
favoring areas south of i-96/696 by late evening. cape metrics are
meager at best with lapse rates aob 6.0 c/km. no severe weather
expected with any embedded thunderstorm structures. however,
boundary-layer condensation pressure deficits indicate a high
likelihood for areas of overnight fog. potential exists for locally
dense patches at times, therefore, a dense fog advisory may be
needed on short notice.

the large-scale pattern remains intact to start the day sunday as
the geopotential height field stays perturbed. expect additional
rounds of showers and perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder as the
warm sector aloft begins to retreat. split flow moves in from west
to east overhead after 18z, leading to subsidence/drying. meanwhile,
1028 mb surface high pressure builds from manitoba into central
ontario, backing gradient flow northeasterly. this helps promote
further drying from north to south, dissolving lingering midday
shower activity confined to areas south of i-94. some clouds may
linger into sunday night, but temperatures should still hold around
5-10 degrees below climatological averages.

unsettled conditions persist over the ohio valley early next week,
although the expectation is that the ridge should remain strong
enough and in proximity to southeast michigan to prevent much
spillover of showers into the lower peninsula. thermal troughing
expands further across the midwest, marked by 850 mb temperatures in
the mid single digits (celsius), which suggests daily highs closer
to 10f below normal through wednesday if not longer. a shortwave
feature aloft could close off somewhere over the northern ohio
valley late tuesday into wednesday. this would present the next
opportunity for additional rainfall, in slightly more widespread
fashion.

&&

.marine...

stalled frontal boundary maintains shower chances over the southern
great lakes through sunday. expansion of strong high pressure over
northern ontario finally shunts this front deeper into the ohio
valley. locally, the central great lakes reside on the edge of this
high resulting in a respectable gradient across the region
throughout the entirety of the early week period. this supports
moderate northeasterly through tuesday before shifting more easterly
by wednesday (while maintaining strength). while gales currently
look unlikely, onshore flow warrants long duration small craft
advisories for all nearshore waters.

&&

.hydrology...

additional showers are expected overnight, some of which will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, more so for areas south of m-59
where potential exists for training/repeated showers. morning
rainfall was less productive than prior expectations, therefore
tonight`s flood threat is slightly lower. however, tonight`s shower
activity could lead to localized new rainfall totals in excess of 1
inch. current data suggests the i-94 corridor to the ohio border
will experience the highest chances for the highest rainfall rates.
ponding in low-lying areas and urban flooding are the primary
threats, with minor rises on area rivers and streams likely.
additional lighter showers may continue through sunday morning,
before precipitation tapers off sunday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1239 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

aviation...

quasi-stationary elevated frontal zone will remain draped across the
southern great lakes region through the forecast period. plenty of
low-level moisture to generate areas of ifr ceilings within the
current batch of light rain move across the central and southern
portions of the southeast michigan airspace. rain will taper off
later this afternoon - however, ceilings will remain mvfr to
occasional ifr into tonight. another batch of rain with embedded
convection will expect to squeeze east out of southern wisconsin and
northern illinois tonight - with the best coverage across the
detroit terminal airspace. winds will remain easterly through sunday.

d21/dtw convection...low potential exists for an isolated embedded
thunderstorm within periods of showers tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000-ft this afternoon through tonight.

* low in thunderstorms through tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from noon sunday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm sunday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm sunday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
hydrology....kgk
aviation.....mann


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.