Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
480
fxus61 kcle 062348
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
748 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

.what has changed...
late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms have developed and have
produced sporadic wind damage and hail. a severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect for western portions of the area until 11 pm
this evening. key message 1 has been updated to reflect the
increase in severe weather potential. patchy fog has also been
added to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through this
evening. damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain are the
primary hazards.

2.) after a brief cool down sunday, heat will build next week. the
combination of air temperatures and humidity may cause heat indices
to exceed 100 by thursday and friday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

as of about 730 pm edt, a line of showers and thunderstorms
extended from ottawa county through northern
ashland/southwestern medina counties with isolated to scattered
storms present to the south and southwest of this line. as of
now, the strongest storms are on the leading/southeastern end of
this line where there is more instability to work with. storms
may produce damaging wind gusts and hail over the next couple of
hours, but generally expect convection to weaken with the loss
of diurnal instability over the next couple of hours,
especially to the northwest where storms have trained and worked
the atmosphere over. the main line of storms is following a
somewhat tight instability gradient so expect showers and storms
to continue a southeastward progression. a severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect for portions of northern ohio through 11 pm
tonight, but it`s likely that some (if not all) of the watch
will be gradually cleared as the severe weather risk continues
to dwindle. will need to keep an eye on hydro since storms are
training a bit, although the more rural landscape and dry
antecedent conditions will likely prevent a significant
flooding risk.

key message 2...

the first official heat wave of the season is likely next week
(temperatures greater than or equal to 90 for 3 or more consecutive
days). after a brief cool down sunday as the mid/upper trough axis
digs through the eastern great lakes and northeast u.s. and canadian
high pressure at the surface builds across the great lakes, an
upstream mid/upper ridge will build eastward from the plains. this
ridge will become strongest across the eastern conus thursday
through saturday ahead of a mid/upper trough swinging from the
northern rockies through the northern plains.

expect high temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s monday then
low 90s tuesday as dew points increase. this will yield heat indices
well into the 90s tuesday. an old cut off low/shortwave ejecting out
of the southern plains and into the great lakes region late tuesday
into wednesday will lead to greater coverage of convection and cloud
cover, so temperatures wednesday should briefly back off into the
mid/upper 80s. however, expect the hottest conditions thursday and
friday as the ridge axis strengthens overhead and sw flow deepens.
temperatures solidly into the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s
will yield heat indices potentially over 100 degrees thursday and
friday. the nws heatrisk map shows widespread major impacts
wednesday through saturday due to the cumulative effects, so heat
headlines may be needed late in the week.

widely scattered convection will continue in the hot and humid
airmass thursday and friday, but a potential for more organized
convection may occur saturday as the upstream trough and associated
cold front start to break the heat.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across portions
of northern ohio, but it`s possible that convection misses most
taf sites before weakening with the loss of diurnal instability.
have vcsh/prob30 groups for terminals that may see some
showers/storms early in the taf period and will make amendments
if confidence in precipitation increases at any given site. any
showers/storms could produce non-vfr conditions in heavy
rainfall rates and lower ceilings. dry weather is expected by
04z, although inland terminals may experience mvfr/ifr
conditions in low stratus/fog early sunday morning.

winds will become light and variable tonight before becoming
north/northeast at 5 to 10 knots during the day sunday.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early tuesday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
strong southwest flow continues over the eastern half of lake
erie this afternoon ahead of a cold front. elevated waves will
persist through this evening and the small craft advisory and
beach hazards statement can continue through 8 pm. the cold
front will cross the lake tonight and winds will shift to the
north with light onshore flow. this light north wind will
continue through sunday. a warm front will approach the lake for
monday and shift winds to the east. this front will cross the
lake for tuesday and southerly offshore flow will be favored.
southwest flow will be favored on wednesday and thursday with
the lake in the warm sector of a low pressure system. winds may
increase to 15 to 20 kts during afternoon hours with the best
mixing. overall, not expecting any marine headlines after
tonight.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15/garuckas
aviation...15
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 062221
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
621 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

.key messages...

- increasingly humid with 60-80% chances for showers and storms
this evening.

- there is a slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) along
and south of us 24 today. best chances for severe weather
will be between 3-9 pm edt with damaging winds and large hail
as the main threats.

- daily periodic chances for showers and storms possible through next
weekend, especially monday into tuesday night with 60-80%
chances.

- hot and humid, especially from wednesday into next weekend. first
90+ degree day of the year likely by late next week.

&&

.update...
issued at 620 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

weak surface frontal boundary slowly pushing south this evening
and serving as impetus for sct storms. while surging low level
moisture is generating mlcape`s in excess of 2k j/kg, overall
synoptic support for ascent is quickly dwindling as midlevel
trough and embedded shortwave to our ne shift further east.
shear is marginal, particularly in the lower levels and midlevel
lapse rates are less than 6 c/km. updrafts will likely continue
to struggle in an almost subsident background environment but
degree of instability still leads to concerns for some isolated
severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds this evening.
hi-res cam`s also show this activity continuing to expand and
strengthen over the next 2-3 hours with some better organization
possible as updrafts grow in scale. given a new watch issued
for portions of northern ohio and the fact that the best
forcing/shear resides there, went ahead and expanded the watch
to include four more of our ohio counties.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1226 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

visible satellite imagery illustrates that clearing is ongoing for
our forecast area as of midday. a cold front currently extends from
rockford, il over lake michigan to grand haven, mi. out ahead of it,
an outflow boundary is noted in the wpc surface analysis over
la porte and berrien counties. large scale ascent amidst an
unstable environment will allow for scattered discrete storms to
develop along that remnant outflow boundary as the cold front
pushes southward. severe weather is most likely today during
peak heating hours (3 pm edt and onwards). concerns yesterday
and overnight were that coverage and intensity of storms would
depend on how the morning evolved. the environment has recovered
favorably behind morning convection with 2500 j/kg of sbcape
noted in northwest indiana with an uncapped environment. 0- 6km
shear has increased as well to around 35-40 kts. however, it is
important to note that lapse rates are meager in both the low
and mid levels at only around 6-6.5 c/km. recent surface observations
show that increased moisture has worked into the area with
dewpoints around 70 and increased waa due to southwesterly winds.
increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the
low to mid 80s today) to support explosive sbcape of up to 3000
j/kg. no towering cumulus can be seen on satellite yet, but
convective initiation should occur in the next few hours mainly
along and south of i-80/i-90. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather is in place across northwest ohio and northern
indiana, mainly along and south of us 30 where the greatest
coverage of storms is expected. despite lapse rates not being as
steep as previously forecast, scattered instances of damaging
wind and hail are still expected today along and south of us 30
given aforementioned favorable shear and instability. with pwats
around 1.5", even sub-severe storms will likely be efficient
rainfall producers today with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr.

the aforementioned cold front will stall over our forecast area
(most likely the us 24 corridor) overnight into sunday morning,
resulting in lingering showers and storms. as instability builds
during the daytime, chances for precipitation creep back up in the
vicinity of the stalled front, mainly along and south of us 30. high
pressure centered over ontario will keep lower michigan mainly dry
tomorrow. highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

the stationary front then is pulled northward as a developing low
pressure system lifts into the upper midwest into wisconsin on
monday. this frontal system will bring renewed chances for rain and
storms as high as 60-80% area-wide, mainly monday afternoon through
tuesday.

it will then become hot and humid, especially from wednesday onwards
into next weekend. as an upper level ridge builds across the central
conus, summer-like temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are
anticipated. the first 90+ degree day is likely for many locations
by the end of the week. heat indices may approach 100 degrees during
peak heating hours. depending on the amplitude and center of
the upper level ridge, there could be daily periodic chances for
rain/storms by mid to late in the week. for now, have kept nbm
low chances (20-40% each day) for wednesday and beyond in the
forecast due to low confidence.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 620 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

weak cold front continues to slowly push south and generate some
scattered storms. the front has cleared ksbn but will likely
bring a few storms to kfwa in the 00-03z timeframe. mainly
dry/vfr conditions are expected thereafter. this front does
stall just south of the area overnight and eventually lift back
north but any additional convection should remain s/sw of the
terminals for this period. there is some concern for patchy
fog/br at kfwa early sunday morning but confidence is low at
this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...agd
discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
954
fxus63 kdtx 062242
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
642 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

.key messages...

- isolated thunderstorm development possible this afternoon, mainly
along and south of i-94. there is a marginal risk for damaging winds
and large hail.

- dry sunday and monday followed by building heat with reoccurring
periods of thunderstorms tuesday onward.

&&

.aviation...

the cold front has now exited south of the state. post frontal dry
air advection and subsidence will result in a continued clearing of
residual diurnal based cu. high pressure will expand into the area
from the north tonight, resulting in light northeast winds to
persist into sunday.

d21/dtw convection...the risk for additional thunderstorm
development this evening is now south of the airspace. so d21 will
remain free of convection.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 pm edt sat jun 6 2026

discussion...

subsidence in the wake of overnight convection brought partly to
mostly sunny skies for much of the area today, with drier air
filtering southward behind a weak frontal boundary. this boundary is
currently stalled from north of jackson to downriver, marking the
northern extent of dew points in the mid to upper 60s. convergence
has capitalized on instability south of the front and caused several
thundershowers to develop so far this afternoon. mean flow will
steer this activity south and east over the next several hours
before it exits the area. lightning and gusty winds are possible
south of i-94 through about 6pm, but confidence is low for severe
weather at this time. satellite imagery north of the boundary
suggests very low probability for additional convection that far
north.

weak height rises and confluent flow aloft promote broad subsidence
overnight into sunday morning, offering mostly clear skies and light
winds. could see some lake cloud move into the thumb early sunday
morning, otherwise surface high pressure building in favors mostly
sunny conditions tomorrow. upper ridging amplifies overhead with
stable and dry conditions holding into early monday. the upper ridge
axis then quickly passes east on monday as a southern plains cutoff
low lifts into the midwest. gulf moisture will accompany this system
and gradually advect into the area monday into monday night. the
bulk of lref grand ensemble membership maintains dry conditions into
early tuesday, but the gefs (and 06.12z operational gfs) are quicker
with the inbound wave and bring a chance for showers as soon as late
monday evening.

deep southerly flow directs the moisture plume across the area on
tuesday with high confidence in showers and storms as the wave
passes overhead. available soundings show several factors that could
point toward localized heavy rain potential: deep saturation and
weak flow through the column, deep warm cloud layer >10kft, and pwat
rising over 1.75" or near the daily record. bulk of latest ensemble
output produces qpf between 0.25" and 1.00" but a few members
indicate the potential for over 1.50". the lack of instability and
absence of llj forcing/moisture advection should keep these heavier
amounts isolated. severe weather is also not likely given moist
adiabatic lapse rates and weak wind shear, but could see precip-
loaded downdrafts that produce gusty winds at times.

southwest return flow emerges in the wake of tuesday`s wave, with
850mb temps forecast to increase to around 20c wednesday into
thursday. absent of cloud and convection, these values support highs
in the lower 90s. available guidance shows high surface moisture and
weak capping, so daily chances for convection are noteworthy and may
interfere with reaching the higher end of temperature guidance
currently reflected in the forecast. if stronger capping emerges and
dry conditions look more favorable, heat headlines would be a
consideration for the mid to late week period.

marine...

a high pressure system to expand from ontario into the eastern great
lakes today into tomorrow which will diminish the elevated wind
speeds (gusts 20 to 25 knots) across lake huron overnight. light
north to northeasterly flow holds tomorrow with winds veering east
to southeast by monday. low pressure to then enter tuesday into
wednesday which will bring some unsettled weather including periodic
rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms. winds still generally
remain light through time time frame with gusts holding aoa 20 knots
outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.