Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
102 pm est mon jan 26 2026

.what has changed...
increased the snow forecast for today`s lake-effect snow, and
we`re now looking at an additional 1-3 inches of snow across
the snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. also
increased the snow forecast for tuesday`s clipper. generally
expecting most of the area to get at least a dusting of snow,
with an additional 1-3 inches of snow across the snowbelt.
finally, the extreme cold watch was upgraded to an extreme cold
warning, with wind chills forecast to reach -25 across much of
the area tonight into tuesday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake-effect snow continues across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania, causing poor road conditions to linger
through this evening.

2) dangerous wind chills down to -25 f are expected to bring
significant cold exposure risks to the entire area tonight into
tuesday morning.

3) light snow is expected areawide on tuesday, with lake-
enhanced snow producing light snow accumulations across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. this may produce
minor travel impacts.

4) prolonged cold is expected through the weekend creating
elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low- level moisture wrapping around the departing 850mb low
continues to linger across the area. cold air over lake effect
has produced minor lake-induced cape, which along with
orographic lift, has produced light, accumulating snowfall
across the primary snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania early this morning. area cameras and traffic speed
information indicates that travel impacts remain due to snow-
covered roads (including major highways) from yesterday`s major
winter storm, especially in the cleveland-akron metro area.

upstream, and upper-level trough resides over the northern great
lakes and upper midwest. this trough will move southeast across
the great lakes, further producing lift and deeper moisture up
700mb. 850mb temperatures should further cool down this morning
to around -18 c, which as the upper-level trough approaches,
should re-intensify the lake-effect snow across the primary
snowbelt. despite lake erie being nearly ice-covered (latest
analysis has lake erie at 92% ice-covered), additional moisture
and warmth can be provided through thin ice, and cracks in the
ice. additional snow accumulations of around 1 to 3 inches are
expected in the primary snowbelt with localized higher amounts
of 3 to 4 inches possible in eastern cuyahoga, southern lake,
northern geauga, and erie, pa south of i-90. where it snows,
expect minor travel impacts to persist through this evening.

as a result, the winter storm warning has been downgraded to a
winter weather advisory and extended through 4 pm today to
better reflect the ongoing but lower-end travel impacts from
lingering snow cover and light lake effect snowfall.

key message 2...
the upper-level trough departs to the east, and an arctic
airmass associated with surface high pressure centered over
texas will extend northeastward towards the lower great lakes
region. as the ridge builds in, should see an area of clearing
skies, and aided by a deep snowpack, should see temperatures
plummet below zero areawide. the temperature forecast trended
lower with this forecast package, especially in central and
east-central ohio where low temperatures could dip to -5 or
lower. breezy southwest winds develop early tuesday morning
behind the departing surface ridge, which when combined with the
cold air temperatures will produce dangerous wind chills down
to -25. the extreme cold watch was upgraded to an extreme cold
warning for the entire area from 7 pm this evening through 11 am
tuesday morning.

key message 3...
a clipper system swings southeast across the great lakes on
tuesday with sufficient cold air and moisture depth for brief,
light snow across the area tuesday morning. breezy southwest
winds tuesday morning may result in patchy blowing or drifting
snow, especially west of i-71 where wind gusts of 30-35 mph will
be possible. this will transition to lake effect snow showers
for the primary snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania where an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow and
minor travel impacts are expected.

key message 4...
an upper-level trough remains over much of the eastern conus
through the end of the week, with stubborn anomalously cold
temperatures across the great lakes region through the weekend.
the recent snow storm has produced a deep snowpack areawide,
which should further enhance cold temperatures across the area. air
temperatures at or below zero will be common through saturday
with minimum wind chill values ranging between -10 and -25,
increasing the risk of frostbite or hypothermia. additional
cold weather advisories or extreme cold warnings are likely.

infrastructure impacts from cold air temperatures tend to
increase for longer duration events, especially when the daily
average temperature dips below 16 degrees (this is a local
criteria) for multiple days. this results in increased
likelihood of burst frozen pipes, dead car batteries, power
outages, increased chances for carbon monoxide poisoning (from
improper use of secondary sources of heat) and structure fires.

additionally, we will likely start to see ice develop and
thicken on area rivers.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
light lake effect snow showers continue across the snowbelt of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. snow showers will
occasional drop visibilities to ifr and will linger in ohio
until possibly as late as 00z and return to eri this afternoon
and continue until as late as 04z. we may even get occasional
snow showers with moisture off lake michigan into fdy and later
tol but these are displaying poorly on radar and even harder to
time. we will tend to dry with skies scattering out from the
southwest overnight, then have a brief window of snow on tuesday
morning as a clipper system moves through the great lakes
region. winds will generally be westerly at 10-15 knots, backing
to southwesterly overnight with speeds increasing to around 15
knots with gusts of 20-30 knots on tuesday morning.

outlook...additional periods of snow with non-vfr are likely
through friday. greatest chances exist in ne oh and nw pa, where
periodic lake-effect snow downwind of mainly ice-covered lake
erie should occur.

&&

.marine...
nw winds early this morning will gradually shift to wsw by this
evening with speeds increasing to 10-20 knots. sw winds will further
increase to 20-30 knots late tonight and tuesday ahead of a clipper
system and associated cold front dropping through the great lakes.
winds will turn wnw behind the front tuesday evening and tuesday
night, with speeds decreasing to 10-15 knots. another clipper
approaching the region will back winds on the lake to sw at 10-20
knots wednesday before turning nw and decreasing to 10-15 knots
behind the associated cold front wednesday night and thursday. nw
winds of 10-15 knots will then continue through friday.

lake erie is mostly ice covered, and the ice will continue to
thicken this week as a deep arctic airmass remains entrenched across
the region. the shifting wind directions may also cause the ice to
shift, especially during the periods of stronger sw winds tonight
and tuesday and again wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme cold warning from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
tuesday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
ohz010>014-020>023-089.
pa...extreme cold warning from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
tuesday for paz001>003.
winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...10
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1242 pm est mon jan 26 2026

.key messages...

- winter storm warnings and advisories for lake effect snow
remain in effect through this afternoon. travel will be
hazardous for the morning commute. if travelling, drive with
caution. prepare for slick and snow covered roads, with sudden
reductions in visibility when driving through lake effect
snow bands.

- a cold weather advisory is in effect for southwestern portions
of the area through this afternoon. wind chills as cold as 20
below are expected in the advisory area. the advisory expands
across the remainder of the area tonight into tuesday morning,
with wind chills as low as 15 to 25 below zero expected.

- additional system and lake effect snows (west-northwest wind
favored snowbelts) are expected through the week, with
continued bitter cold. accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
possible tonight into wednesday, mainly for areas north of us
6 (highest in michigan).

&&

.update...
issued at 1130 am est mon jan 26 2026

lake effect snow bands are finally starting to exhibit much less
organization over the past hour. passage of the synoptic scale
mid/upper level trough and weakening low level convergence
should allow this diminishing trend to continue through the
remainder of the morning/early afternoon. if current trends
hold, may be able to allow winter weather headlines to expire at
18z. looking ahead, some travel impacts are possible again
later tonight int early tuesday as another surge of reinforcing
cold air allows for more snow showers. with westerly flow regime
by this time, band organization will not be as impressive as
this morning, but an inch or two of additional snow is possible.
this new snow combined with gusty west winds to around 30 mph
early tuesday will likely lead to some more travel concerns,
especially for areas which have the deeper snowpack from the
heavy lake effect snow over the past 12 hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 646 am est mon jan 26 2026

the main changes made to the forecast overnight were:

1. cancelled the winter storm warning for la porte county, in as the
lake effect snow band should remain to the northeast of the area.
light snow is possible through early afternoon, with accumulations
of 1 inch or less.

2. i extended the time of all remaining winter storm warnings and
advisories to 1 pm est this afternoon. furthermore, i expanded the
winter storm warning into cass county, mi and the winter weather
advisory into elkhart county, in. additional accumulations of 2-5
inches are likely-with the greatest totals ending up wherever the
band continues to focus this morning into early afternoon.


more details...

winter storm warnings/advisories: somewhat conflicting model
guidance for the evolution of the lake enhanced snow band
impacting the area this morning into the afternoon made for some
tricky decisions with regards to today`s headlines. at 6 am i
received a report from abc 57 of 5.9" since 9 pm est last night
when the band was peaking. a spotter in st. joseph, mi also
called around the same time with a total of 5.3 inches over the
past 12 hours. as of 6:20, we received a report from wsbt
indicating 8" totals from just the overnight hours in rolling
prairie, in. right now the band looks pretty healthy but not as
intense-with around 1-2sm visibility being reported where it has
been over the last hour or so (kekm/ksbn/kbeh around 1 1/2sm,
and further inland near k65/kgsh/kasw between 2- 3sm).

at 500mb, an upper level trough is digging southwestward from
ontario into wi/il/ia..and this will swing across our cwa today-
exiting by around 21-00z (followed by an upper level ridge). dry air
is advancing into our southwest with the expanding surface high,
while at the same time a surface trough axis is dropping
southeastward over the lower great lakes and southern mi-with the
base on the lake mi shoreline just north of us. the upper level
trough/surface trough will provide an uptick to the band this
morning (around 8-10 am et)-though where the band focuses and how
much of an uptick we`ll see is debatable. some of the models show
the band breaking up or becoming lighter this morning with the
expansion of the ridge south-so there might be a little bit of a
lull or disorganized look before the main trough arrives and
refocuses the band. models vary quite a bit as to how this takes
shape. the hrrr shows an "l" shape from berrien/cass into
elkhart- with the southern edge eventually eroding and becoming
more focused over lower mi, travelling eastward into st. joseph
county, mi. the qpf values for the hrrr are as high as another
tenth or maybe even as much as 0.15-0.20" in northeastern
berrien/western cass co, in...with around 0.05-0.10" in western
st. joseph co, mi. we`ll also see continued light system snow
associated with the trough through the early afternoon before
dry air takes hold. other guidance suggests slightly more or
less than the hrrr qpf...or has the maximum somewhere in
berrien/cass/elkhart or st. joseph briefly before shifting east.
went middle of the road for the liquid equivalent--and with the
inversion heights maintaining between 6- 8kft through late
morning and lift maximized in the better-saturated dgz with the
trough passage-opted for snow ratios around 17-20:1. this gave
me around 2-5" from 5 am onward (so some has already fallen as
of this writing). the potential for greater than or equal to 2
inches of snow today (lake effect/trough combined) was
widespread over berrien, cass, mi and northern st. joseph,
in...and through northern portions of elkhart, in. st. joseph mi
was focused further west (and best snow potential later this am
into early afternoon). potential for greater than 4" was
focused in far northern st. joseph, in and cass/berrien county
mi.

these probabilities led to my decision to expand the advisory and
upgrade cass, mi to a warning. even if we don`t reach the maximum of
an additional 4-5"...the conditions within the band once it reforms
could be treacherous for travel in an area with major
interstates...including i 94, i 80-90, i 196, and other key roads
like us 12 and us 31. the morning commute will be impacted-so be
cautious if driving today. visibility at klwa right now where the
trough is providing support has dropped to around 3/4sm.

otherwise, continued the cold air advisories-one through today in
the sw to account for this mornings wind chills/tonight and tue am,
and the other for the remaining cwa beginning at 6 pm et and
continuing into tue am. wind chills of -15 to -25 are expected,
coldest tonight into tue am (especially east of us 31).

tonight into wednesday night we have a trough move through and lake
effect developing in areas favored by w-nw winds. accumulations of 1
to 3 inches are possible tonight into wednesday, mainly for areas
north of us 6 (highest in michigan). locations north of us 30 will
see a half inch or less. cold weather will persist through the week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1237 pm est mon jan 26 2026

improving conditions underway at ksbn as persistent lake effect
snow showers finally shifting east. vsbys may still bounce
around for a few hours, but overall trends back to vfr are in
store. vfr conditions should dominate at kfwa as well for most,
if not all of the period.

another trough arrives later tonight into tuesday with
increasing winds and additional lake effect snowshowers. these
most likely will remain north of ksbn, but trends will need to
be monitored in coming issuances. blowing/drifting snow could be
a bigger issue for runway clearing and vsbys at times, but are
not reflected in the tafs.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
inz005-104-204.
winter weather advisory from 4 am est /3 am cst/ to 7 pm est
/6 pm cst/ tuesday for inz005-103-104-203-204.
cold weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am est
tuesday for inz005>009-104-204.
cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ tuesday for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-116-203-216.
oh...cold weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am est
tuesday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
miz079.
winter weather advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est tuesday for
miz078-079-177-277.
cold weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am est
tuesday for miz078>081-177-277.
winter storm warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for miz078-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...mcd
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
105 pm est mon jan 26 2026

.key messages...

- frigid conditions monday through friday with wind chills
occasionally reaching 15 below zero or colder. a cold weather
advisory is in effect this evening through tuesday morning for the
first episode of dangerous cold wind chills.

- snow showers around on tuesday are expected to produce a dusting
to 2 inches of accumulation, with a low chance for isolated snow
squalls.

- a chance of snow showers exists on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions for several hours today until a possible round of
lake effect makes it across the state this evening. will keep a mvfr
tempo going for a few hours until some better signal in radar images
starts coming in. skies will attempt to clear out, at least in the
low levels, tonight for a bit as ridging slides across the state but
the next trough is already approaching which will bring a period of
lower clouds and light snow from about 08-12z. light snow may
persist through the day as the front will follow a few hours later
and additional lake bands will look to develop in the evening again.
westerly flow today will back to the southwest this evening through
much of the rest of the forecast. gusts will reach 20 knots this
afternoon and near 25 knots tonight.

for dtw...light snow showers this evening are possible which could
result in a period of mvfr. steadier snowfall arrives early tuesday
around 09-12z with lower ceilings and visibilities likely. at this
point mvfr looks most likely but could get some brief ifr
visibilities within the snow showers. additional snow showers
possible through the afternoon and evening with as a front passes
through and then lake effect begins.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. high
later tonight into tuesday.

* high in precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 326 am est mon jan 26 2026

discussion...

direct absolute vorticity advection within composite trough axis has
resulted in a firming of deformation forcing across southeast
michigan early this morning. both kdtx and caset z products showed
steady increase in returns the past 4-6 hours with measured reports
of high liquid to snow ratios of upwards of 20:1 to 30:1. nwp signal
suggests its going to take a couple more hours for the deformation
axis to pivot and sweep out of the region. will be interesting to
look at storm total snow reports in the thumb with this latest
overnight round on top of the lake enhancement from sunday. the
winter weather advisory remains in effect for huron and sanilac
counties through 10am. travel will be impacted this morning and no
changes will be made to the headlines. just very weak isentropic
descent is forecasted today with a delayed dry air advection response
in the midlevels. not expecting any synoptic scale support for lift
today but some supersaturation with respect to ice within the
dendritic growth zone will yield flurries from time to time.

brief shortwave ridging will build across the state this evening as
southeast michigan resides on the northern edge of the gradient to
the surface high passing through the southern united states. good
signal for southwesterly winds increasing into the 15 to 25 knot
range. dry lower column should allow for a quick temperature drop
allowing windchills to drop into the 10 to 20 degree below zero
range by midnight for most of the forecast area. a cold weather
advisory is in effect from 7 pm tonight until 10 am tuesday.
amplified clipper shortwave is then forecasted to dig right through
southeast michigan during the 9-14z time window tuesday morning.
decent warm advection response will support lift for a time, but the
real limiting factor will be an extremely narrow corridor of
saturation between 800-650mb. deterministic guidance is really
struggling with qpf amounts. looks to be a high pop/low qpf setup
and will carry snow accumulations early tuesday of around a half
inch. will likely see windchills rise a few degrees around daybreak
with the cloud and snow.

midlevel arctic intrusion of -25c will push through the area
tuesday afternoon and tuesday evening. differential warm advection
is then anticipated late tuesday night. there is question and
uncertainty with how much lake effect cloud will make it into
southeast michigan from lake michigan as the models could be
overforecasting the saturation. raw model guidance and the current
forecast is calling for windspeeds of around 5 knots wednesday
morning. it will be a real close call for windchills to fall to -15c
wednesday morning. adjustments to the temperature/windchill forecast
will likely occur.

a second and larger, colder arctic intrusion is forecasted to dig
straight southward into the great lakes thursday and friday. coldest
of the airmass, 850mb temperatures of -22 to -25c look to be
overhead friday morning. current windchill forecast thursday morning
has values dropping to -15f for most of the area and -20f for
friday. additional windchill headlines appear likely for the end of
the week. low confidence exists on how the cold anomaly will
transition and evolve out of the area. latest data suggests the
arctic air will push into the southeast united states and mid
atlantic. this scenario may result in a pattern change with quiet
weather and moderating temperatures next weekend, a solution the
deterministic ecmwf, gfs, and cmc all agree on.

marine...

light snow continues across the southern great lakes as an expansive
low pressure system progresses through the appalachia region.
departure of this system will reinforce arctic air across the great
lakes tomorrow and through the midweek period. this will again boost
overlake instability, promoting a steep mixing layer that will bring
breezy conditions for the next several days. wind gusts ranging 20
to 30 knots will be likely through this period, with some of these
higher end gusts entering tuesday morning ahead of a clipper system.
moderate freezing spray will be possible. lake effect snow banding
will be likely across the southern lake huron basin tonight into
tomorrow morning, with widespread light snow possible with the
aforementioned clipper system.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est tuesday
for miz048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...cb
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.