Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
712 am edt sun apr 12 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled weather pattern this week will result in multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) above average temperatures return today and persist through
the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface low pressure pushing across the upper midwest today will
lift a warm front northeast through the local forecast area
today. simultaneously, a shortwave aloft will glide east across
lower michigan and the lower great lakes region. the majority of
the forecast area should remain dry today, but can`t rule out a
stray shower clipping lakeshore zones given the location of the
support aloft. any qpf from the showers will be minimal.

shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by monday as the
aforementioned low drags a cold front east across the region.
ahead of the cold front, the region will solidly be in the warm
sector which will yield mucape values of 400-700 j/kg. can`t
rule out the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop, though spc continues to highlight our forecast area in
a general thunder (i.e. no severe threat) for monday. will
continue to monitor any future updates or adjustments to the
swody for that timeframe. in addition to shower/thunderstorm
chances, it will be breezy today and monday. southerly to
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to gust to
30-35 mph each afternoon.

a series of low pressure systems and surface boundaries will
linger across the great lakes and ohio valley regions through
the rest of this week. this will keep chance pops in the
forecast for the foreseeable future. heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe storms both remain possible with
this forecast update. the timeframe of note will be midweek
where the best synoptic support and afternoon destabilization
exist. wpc has highlighted portions of northwest ohio in their
days 4 and 5 excessive rainfall outlook. given the progressive
nature of these systems, not expecting any major flooding
concerns at this point, even with the antecedent wet conditions
from recent rainfall.

key message 2...
as the warm front lifts northeast, high temperatures this
afternoon will rise into the 70s areawide. high temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s will continue through this week.
overnight lows will also remain warm in the upper 50s to lower
60s each night.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions in scattered to broken high clouds are expected
through about 06z monday before showers begin to move east into
nw oh. the showers will overspread most of the area through 12z
monday. non-vfr conditions are likely in lower
visibilities/ceilings in more persistent rain, although
confidence in the placement and timing of any ifr conditions
remains low at this point. winds will be out of the southeast at
10 knots or less for the first couple of hours of the forecast
period before becoming south/southwest and increasing to 10 to
20 knots near or shortly after 15z. gusts to 20 to 30 knots are
likely with the highest gusts closer to 30 knots expected at
ktol/kfdy. a strong low level jet will move over the region
after 00z tonight and expect a period of llws and perhaps a
period of lower surface gusts through early monday morning.

outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are expected in periodic
showers and thunderstorms monday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southeast winds at around 10 knots are expected this morning
before shifting to the southwest behind a warm front this
afternoon and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening through
monday. there may be periods where winds very briefly exceed 20
knots through monday afternoon, although offshore flow will
focus the higher waves into the open waters of the lake. with
that being said, winds may be just westerly enough to produce
waves just over 4 feet in the nearshore waters of the eastern
basin monday morning into monday afternoon and a brief small
craft advisory may be needed during that timeframe. winds will
diminish to about 10 knots monday night, however periods of
elevated winds will likely persist through thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 am edt sun apr 12 2026

.key messages...

* today will mark the beginning of an extended period of much
above normal temperatures. highs today will range from 75 to
80.

* windy today with peak afternoon gusts as high as 35 to 40 mph
at times.

* an active period of showers and thunderstorm chances through
the middle of the week. greatest probability of showers and
storms is tuesday night and wednesday (60-80%). there is a
potential of severe weather, mainly late tuesday afternoon and
night along with wednesday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 324 am edt sun apr 12 2026

scattered showers have developed across lower michigan this morning
in response to a retreating low level warm frontal boundary.
stronger moisture transport is displaced well to the west of the
local area this morning however, along an axis from central
oklahoma to central iowa. the strongest isentropic upglide this
morning should continue through around 12z, with focus for
additional showers likely shifting north of the area after this
time. the overall forecast scenario has not changed much for
today with the entire area quickly become entrenched in broad
warm sector.

near term forecast soundings suggest deep mixing profiles today
which should allow from 35 knot boundary layer winds to mix to the
sfc. given recent guidance trends and collaboration with surrounding
offices, did slightly nudge up wind gusts today to around 35
mph, although a few higher gusts are possible particularly from
northwest indiana to southwest lower michigan where href
guidance depicts 30- 40% probs of wind gusts over 40 mph. this
deep mixing and stronger warm advection from this morning should
allows highs to reach into the 75 to 80 degree range most
locations.

the relatively non-impressive low level moisture transport
trajectories from the lower ms valley continue today, so afternoon
instability should be limited to a just a few hundred j/kg of
surface-based cape from nw in/sw lower mi this afternoon. stronger
forcing this afternoon should continue to be displaced west of the
area, at least until tonight when a stronger mid level short wave
ejects northeast across the western great lakes. northward
progression of this feature should eventually allow an axis of
better low level moisture across the mid ms rvr valley to
shift across the local area. no significant change made to previous
forecast grids with likely rain shower pops (60-80%) and slight
chance thunder pops tonight.

focus for monday through wednesday will turn to evolution of western
conus split flow pattern and its contribution to increase
shower/storm chances mon-wed. on monday, guidance has been
consistent in depicting a piece of southern stream upper trough
getting ingested into a more progressive northern stream trough
working across the northern plains/upper midwest by monday
night. with better advective/dynamic forcing northwest of local
area on monday, confidence is still relatively low on
thunderstorm coverage for monday afternoon/evening. did maintain
some low chance pops during the day monday with perhaps some
synoptic contribution in right entrance region of great lakes
jet streak south of the warm front. an item contributing to low
confidence in some steeper mid level lapse rates advecting into
the region monday which could act to cap convective development.
perhaps best chance of storms monday would be during the
nighttime when potential composite outflow could drop across
southern great lakes into early tuesday, or potential southward
propagation in upwind sense via low level jet feeding into the
southern great lakes.

greater chance of thunder still appears to be intact for tuesday and
wednesday, although expected uncertainties remain. overnight
monday/early tuesday convection across great lakes could have some
influence on composite boundary positioning which would be important
for favored initiation areas in the afternoon/evening. a
scenario could evolve where weak sfc based cin persists through
much of tuesday. tuesday evening could feature best convective
potential with synoptic setup more favorable by this time for a
mid level speed max to eject across the southern great lakes
downstream of the more pronounced upper wave across the central
rockies. if storms can develop, this would be a decently sheared
environment and combination of this shear and good level mid
level lapse rates aloft would conditionally make all severe
hazards possible for a time including some locally heavy rain
potential.

wednesday convective potential is even less clear at this time, but
will be in place given the slow evolution of the shearing rockies
short wave as it ejects northeast across the northern great lakes
into early thursday. convective debris from potential overnight
storms tuesday and likely weakening mid level lapse rates by this
time could limit instability magnitudes, but at least an
isolated strong/severe risk could evolve wed afternoon/evening.

dampening nature of this upper wave on thursday will result in no
break from the much above normal temperatures into friday as another
longwave trough digs across western conus friday. deterministic and
ensemble solutions are exhibiting quite a spread in the progression
of this wave and associated cold frontal boundary for next
weekend with ensemble means generally more progressive than
their deterministic counterpart. initial feeling is that the
slower idea may have some validity given nature of large scale
synoptic flow in being stubborn to break down the eastern conus
ridge resulting in slower, highly sheared nature of upper level
waves. depending on timing, this could yield another period of
convective potential early next weekend with the associated cold
front. a trend to cooler temperatures still looks likely
heading into early next week behind this cold front.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 630 am edt sun apr 12 2026

the stronger isentropic lift early this morning is lifting north
of northern indiana, with additional isolated showers likely to
affect areas north of the terminals. a warm front will quickly
shift north of the area this morning. despite strengthening
southerly flow in warm sector, moisture transport is not all
that impressive with primary low level moisture axis nosing into
the corn belt. without clear additional forcing mechanisms today
and better instability remaining west of the area, will keep
tafs dry through the day. a mid level trough lifting out of the
southern plains will allow this upstream moisture axis to shift
across the ohio valley and southern great lakes tonight bringing
a period of showers with perhaps an isolated storm.

deep mixing today in warm sector should promote south to
southwest gusts to 30 to 35 knots at times and eastward
translation of low level jet axis should keep some healthy gusts
going through the night tonight. will maintain a brief period
of llws to begin this forecast valid period at ksbn, with
marginal llws possibly being met again later tonight. will let
later shifts assess this potential.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
445 am edt sun apr 12 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a rumble of thunder this morning with rain chances
continuing across the north into the day.

- southwest wind gusting in the 30-40 mph range develops this
afternoon helping to lift temperatures into the 70s.

- warm and wet week ahead with highs reaching into the 70s each day
and daily storm chances.

- there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms monday night and
tuesday morning.

- locally heavy rainfall potential also increases during the mid
week period.

&&

.aviation...

an elevated warm front now lifting across the area will sustain
scattered showers during the early to mid morning hours. the showers
will be a little more widespread across the kmbs terminal where the
ascent will be a little more persistent. residual low level dry air
will support prevailing vfr ceilings within the showers. this is
currently supported be regional observations. low level warm air
will then surge northward during the day. as the warm air expands
across the terminals, south-southwest winds will rapidly increase.
model soundings and probabilistic guidance suggests gusts around or
over 30 knots at times during peak heating in the mid to late
afternoon. limited nocturnal cooling within the persistent southerly
winds will sustain some degree of gustiness well into the night.

dtw/d21 convection... limited instability suggests only showers with
no thunderstorms across the airspace this morning. additional
showers are forecast overnight tonight. again limited instability
will maintain a very low risk of thunderstorms across the airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning. high overnight
tonight.

* low in thunderstorms late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 314 am edt sun apr 12 2026

discussion...

active stretch of weather starting today which will persist through
much of the coming week. a strong upper low over the west coast will
slowly drift eastward over the next few days, reaching the plains on
wednesday. meanwhile, a surface low develops over the central plains
and moves very little while its attendant warm front wavers about
through the great lakes and the cold front sags southward toward
texas. this setup will draw deep moisture from the gulf up through
the midwest/great lakes with persistent 40+ knot low level jet, with
shortwaves accelerating that to near 60 knots at times. the westward
placement of the surface low will tend to keep the better surface
based storms up through the plains and into the midwest, but the
upper level low ejecting several shortwaves through the great lakes
will act to draw better moisture and instability into the region at
times leading to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
thursday. besides storms this week, the other main story for the
week will be the much warmer airmass offering daily high temps into
the 70s, lows in the 50s, with dewpoints into the 50s and 60s much of
the week.

today will offer the first round of showers and storms as a
shortwave tracking across the up on the nose of a 50 knot jet sends
a cluster of storms along the isentropic arm extending eastward from
the low over the plains. this will mostly pass north of se mi but
during the morning the forcing will reach farther south and east
offering some showers and elevated storms locally before the warm
sector starts pushing into southern mi capping off additional
activity this afternoon. winds in the warm sector later this
afternoon will get gusty as the low level jet starts expanding into
the area as peak heating still has max mixed layer depths. model
soundings suggest we could mix down 30 knots or more for a couple
hours before sundown. cold front sweeps through the area later
tonight. the low will peal off to the north with the ribbon of
vorticity shearing to the northeast as well, so a weaken band of
showers will pass through tonight, possibly ending by 12z monday
morning. highest rainfall totals will be up through mid mi where qpf
could reach 1.2 to 1.4 inches. amounts taper off drastically
southward, with less than a tenth of an inch expected around the
detroit metro.

could see a lull in precip on monday as low amplitude mid level
ridge slides over with the main baroclinic zone well to the north
but the next short wave is already targeting the u.p. again tonight.
best chances for precip will again occur to the north, but expanding
area of elevated instability, a mid level vort max, and strong low
level jet could lead showers and storms expanding farther south
across much or all of the area. spc has us in a marginal risk of
severe weather for monday.

window for strong to severe surface based storms remains to be on
tuesday as a low ripples along the front laid across mid mi and the
main upper trough pushes into the mid ms valley. this will lead to a
high shear, good instability environment, surface/mid/and upper level
support, good moisture with pwats over 1.25 inches and surface
dewpoints into the 60s (some models advertising hitting 70). plenty
of time before this arrives to get more into the weeds with storm
potential and timing but spc already had most of se mi in the day4
15% area today. the mid/upper level troughs linger just to the west
wed and thurs as well offering additional storm chances.

marine...

winds organize from the south-southeast this morning as a return
flow configuration arises from departing high pressure. gradual
gradient constriction causes winds to increase, exceeding 20 knots
for the northern half of lake huron by sunrise. expect a more active
week of weather, beginning this morning, as showers move in ahead of
a decaying line of thunderstorms. locally higher winds and waves are
possible as convection works across the huron basin, but lower
column stability should limit overall gustiness. potential still
exists for brief gusts to gales late sunday into monday as a 65+
knot low-level jet crosses the central great lakes. the main area of
concern will be saginaw bay given funneling southwest flow and
slightly higher potential for mixing. winds respond accordingly,
therefore an initial round of small craft advisories are in effect,
with more possible for the adjacent waterways on monday. several
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the week due to a series of troughs, low pressure
systems, and fronts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt monday
for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am edt monday
for lhz441.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.