Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1234 pm est wed nov 11 2026

.what has changed...
rain chances and amounts for tonight have increased, especially
across northern portions of the area. little change to the "big
picture" thursday through saturday, though some minor adjustments
were made to precip chances/amounts/types and temperatures.

&&

.key messages...
1) after a dry day today, a period of rain is expected across
the entire area tonight into early thursday morning. it turns
breezy and cooler on thursday as occasional showers continue.

2) lake effect showers continue thursday night into the
weekend as western portions of the area dry out. snow will mix
in at times, especially away from lake erie, though the risk for
impactful accumulations remains low.

3) dry weather with a slow warming trend early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mid-upper level clouds will stream in today ahead of a digging
trough and developing low pressure, though we should remain
rain-free through the day with afternoon highs of 55-60.

this forecaster thinks it`s fair to say "the party"...in this
case, a prolonged period of relatively warm and dry weather to
start the fall...is over starting this evening. a cold front
will sink south across the area late this afternoon into this
evening, with deepening low pressure tracking just to our south
across the upper ohio valley overnight tonight. as guidance
finally converges on the final track/intensity of this low, rain
chances and amounts have been nudged up a bit as it`s looking
like the expected swath of rain just north/northwest of the low
will track right across our forecast area. this will be a
rather compact system moving through fairly quickly, which will
limit rain amounts to a point. however, there will be a brief
period of low-mid level frontogenesis as thermal packing takes
place just north-northwest of the low tonight which should
support more organized/banded rain. there may be just a touch
of elevated instability as well, which can support a bit of a
convective component. the forecast has a swath of 0.20-0.40" of
rain focused on a findlay-cleveland-erie line through early
thursday with a bit less outside of that. locally higher amounts
over 0.50" are possible, with guidance still disagreeing
slightly on exactly where the greatest swath of rain tracks.
lows tonight are expected to fall into the low-mid 40s.

unsettled weather continues area-wide beneath the deepening
upper-level trough on thursday as low pressure transfers to
off the northern mid atlantic coast. as temperatures aloft
continue cooling through thursday and sufficient synoptic
moisture lingers, lake effect showers are expected to develop
early in the morning and continue through the day. with
initially northeast winds the lake effect will focus south-
southwest of the lake, farther west/southwest into north central
ohio than is normal. outside of the lake effect, an inverted
surface trough extending into the great lakes behind the
departing low pressure is expected to drop across the area
thursday afternoon or evening as an embedded shortwave aloft
also rotates through the region. this will likely bring a more
organized batch of showers to the entire area and also cause
ongoing lake effect to briefly enhance with the trough passage.
additional rain amounts thursday will generally be under a
quarter-inch, though it`s possible locations near and just
southwest of cleveland see more due to lake enhancement.
temperatures will rise no more than a few degrees and may even
cool later in the afternoon, with highs staying in the 40s. it
will be blustery with northerly winds gusting 20-30 mph.

key message 2...
once the inverted trough sinks south of the area thursday
evening, shower activity is expected to become primarily lake-
driven for the end of the week and into the weekend. upper
troughing will be deepest overhead thursday night and friday
before slowly weakening and moving east this weekend. initially
north-northeast winds thursday night are expected to gradually
back more northerly on friday and more northwesterly through the
weekend. conditions will be most conducive to lake effect
overnight thursday night through early saturday beneath the
heart of the upper trough. during this timeframe, 500mb
temperatures will bottom out at around -30c over 12-15c lake
waters as synoptic moisture lingers. the mid-levels will start
to gradually warm and dry on saturday, though it is expected to
be a slow ramp down of lake effect with activity not expected to
completely end until sunday night or early monday when the
surface ridge axis builds into the area. outside of the lake
effect, there may still be a few sprinkles or light showers
across northwest oh on friday beneath the deep troughing aloft.
conditions should trend completely dry across western portions
of the area for the weekend.

the main focus for more organized/intense lake effect is
expected to be a connection to lake huron. this connection is
expected to initially set-up west of cleveland (and perhaps
briefly as far west as sandusky and mansfield) thursday night
into friday. from there, it will gradually shift east across the
cleveland metro area later friday into early saturday and into
the more traditional snowbelt of far northeast oh and northwest
pa through the weekend. outside of this connection there will be
some less-organized lake effect at times. the most precip will
tend to fall in the higher terrain immediately downwind of the
lake given the short fetch. lake effect will ebb and flow in
terms of organized and intensity through the event as various
subtle vort maxes or shortwaves rotate through. there are hints
that lake effect may peak in intensity early friday, and then
again late friday afternoon through early saturday.

in terms of precip types, it will become cold enough aloft
thursday night through saturday night for snow to mix in with
the rain, especially away from the lake and during the overnight
and morning hours. the main uncertainty involves milder surface
temperatures, owing to a lack of arctic influence and
modification from the mild great lake waters. in general, am
expecting temperatures thursday, friday, and saturday nights to
bottom out in the low-mid 30s away from the lake where lake
effect clouds/showers continue. it will be difficult to see
temperatures dip to freezing or below where lake effect
continues, though a few spots above 1200` elevation may. chillier
sub-freezing values are more likely across western portions of
our area each night where clouds may dry clearing out at times.
locations closer to the lake will struggle to fall below the
upper 30s or lower 40s. daytime highs will only reach the upper
30s and lower 40s on friday, before inching up a degree or two
each day but staying in the 40s saturday and sunday.

given strong instability and cold air aloft through early
saturday, more convective lake effect will be able to mix with
graupel or wet snow even during the daytime hours and
potentially near the lakeshore as well. however, given the
marginal low-level thermals, the greatest potential for precip
to mix with or change to all snow for a length of time will be
during the overnight/morning hours and away from lake erie. the
odds for impactful accumulations remain quite low and the
official forecast has no more than very light amounts away from
the lake. however, it`s possible measurable snow occurs in parts
of the area, mainly beneath any stronger lake huron connection
early friday and again friday night into early saturday. amounts
would not be more than a localized inch or two, but given the
conducive setup and convective nature amounts higher than what
we can put in the forecast this far in advance are possible.
outside of this more intense huron-connected band, it`s possible
the higher terrain east of i-79 in pennsylvania is cold enough
to see a light dusting of snow one of those nights.

key message 3...
there`s good agreement that this weekend`s trough will continue
exiting east the first half of next week as a ridge builds east
out of the central u.s. surface high pressure is likely to move
overhead the first half of next week, leading to a period of dry
and tranquil weather as temperatures very slowly moderate.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
vfr conditions will begin to deteriorate as rain showers enter
terminals from southwest to northeast tonight into thursday.
ceilings will gradually reduce to mvfr with patchy ifr possible.
visibilities should largely remain vfr across western terminals
with mvfr visibilities most likely across eastern terminals in
rain and br thursday morning. rain showers will persist across
terminals through the period but become more confined downwind
of lake erie thursday and continue into friday.

light southerly to southwesterly winds this afternoon will shift
northeasterly by late afternoon and increase to 5-8 knots.
generally northeasterly to northerly winds between 5-10 knots
continue through the taf period with locally higher northerly
winds of 10-15 knots with gusts 20-30 knots possible along the
lakeshore thursday afternoon/evening.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend. some wet snow
showers may also be possible at the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will cross the lake late this afternoon, with
deepening low pressure tracking through the upper ohio valley
tonight. a trough will linger behind the departing low through
the end of the week before high pressure slowly builds in from
the west to end the weekend and start next week. after a
tranquil day today, northeast winds will ramp up to 15-20kt
tonight. winds will shift more northerly and increase to 20-30kt
on thursday. waves are expected to peak at 4 to 7 feet thursday
into thursday night. winds will gradually shift more northwest
friday and through the weekend, remaining elevated at 15-25kt
through early saturday before slowly relaxing through the
weekend. we will need high-end small craft advisories for all
nearshore waters starting tonight or early thursday. the risk
of a gale on thursday remains non-zero but under 20%. there is
some uncertainty regarding how long the advisories will need to
run and the lake will be tranquil through the day today, so will
let the day shift take a look at one more run of guidance
before hoisting the scas.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...13
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1228 pm est wed nov 11 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers develop and spread across the area this afternoon
and early evening. an isolated thunderstorm is possible across
portions of northwest indiana this afternoon and early evening
with isolated wind gusts of over 40 mph possible with any
showers or isolated storms.

- lake effect showers impact areas mainly west of us-31 in
northwest indiana and far southwest lower michigan thursday
through friday night. snow is expected to mix in by late
thursday night into friday morning. additional lake effect
snow showers are possible early saturday. some slushy snow
accumulations are possible with the lake effect, mainly early
friday morning across northwest indiana.

- below normal temperatures thursday through this weekend before
moderating midweek next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1200 pm est wed nov 11 2026

a vigorous shortwave continues moving southeast from ia this morning
through central il today, reaching central in this afternoon. the
eventual placement of the warm front will be key in understanding
severity, but there appears to be some southward trend in that
placement in models between yesterday and today. key to thunderstorm
development appears to be the mid level lapse rates. hail was
forming across eastern ia this morning right on the northern
gradient from high to low within an elevated area of instability.
this would be the cause of hail should it form across the area
today. such an area of mid level lapse rates moves into areas south
of us-30 midday into the afternoon before vacating by 20z. this area
is well out in front of the forcing and would likely not be where
storms form. the other area into our southwest 1 to 2 tiers of
counties has mid level lapse rates from 6.5 to 7c. this overlaps
with an area of very weak mucape right around 100 to 250 j/kg in the
20 to 00z window. there is some low level turning to work with
within the lowest 1 to 2km of the atmosphere, but given the weak
instability and what appears to be an elevated instability nature to
the atmospheric column, the tornado threat appears to be low unless
we can realize a taller surface instability column. soundings appear
to show a sort of an onion-shaped or shallow inverted-v profile that
may be conducive to bringing winds down to the surface alluding to
the gusty to damaging wind possibility.

hot on the heels of this wave is an area of vorticity traveling
southward from canada. as this area travels southward, it
deepens and interacts with the departing low pressure area.
what`s interesting is the deeper cold is delayed and farther
west of lk mi on thursday. the ecmwf almost has a drainage
signal where the eastern lk mi area is cold, but over the lake
is warmer, even at 850 mb. so, while the qpf signal appears lake
effect/lake enhanced, we haven`t gotten the cold air enough to
change it over to snow yet. a couple of compact waves traverse
southward nearby lk mi and the rrfs seems to show a trough
kicking off a more sustained band thursday evening. by the time
we get to early fri am, enough cold air has wrapped in that
soundings are beginning to get snow mixed in or changed over. -5
to -6c at 850 mb is right over the southern tear drop of lk mi
on the ecmwf so that makes sense. as various waves/instability
troughs traverse southward, finding the exact trajectory will be
difficult because there will be some east-west wavering. a
slight eastward change can mean the relatively vigorous lift
going on from the relatively warm lake and cold airmass
interaction can mean quick snow rates getting into laporte and
maybe starke counties. these could be rates that overcome the
warm ground from how anomalously warm we`ve been this late fall.
as such, will continue the mention of the 1 to 2 inches of snow
through friday that could result in laporte county especially
with that wavering. model guidance with variable snow ratios
continues to back this up. it`ll be interesting to see what
happens with snow and if it`ll stay mainly on grassy surfaces or
if it`ll have enough oomph to accumulate on roads. some
guidance say it`ll struggle to accumulate on roads friday
morning. the snow band may push eastward saturday morning toward
us-30, but it would appear to be more diffuse at that point and
in its dying trend. it`ll also trend back to rain or drizzle as
the column warms. lake clouds could continue through sunday
with the northwest trajectories continuing. it is interesting to
see the highs are still forecast to warm into the 40s on friday
and saturday. that would cut into the accumulation ceilings and
i`m curious if we`d have refreezing overnight with sub-freezing
lows. this would depend on having standing water left on roads
that, with light to calm wind, would indicate it`s possible.

finally, by the time we get to monday, trajectories change even as
the last vigorous wave traverses the lake saturday. surface high
pressure is already working to dry low level moisture out this
weekend. highs trend warmer through the 40s to reach the 50s by the
middle of next week as the surface high slowly translates eastward.
there is a vigorous wave south of the high that moves into the gulf
states, but it`s far enough south to avoid our area. the warm
advection pattern returns midweek next week as a wave shifts
northeastward from the central plains into south-central canada. as
a result, the work week looks dry monday through at least thursday.
however, lows won`t rise above freezing until thursday morning.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1222 pm est wed nov 11 2026

a complex of scattered showers and storms north of a frontal
boundary in northern ia and il is moving west towards northwest
indiana this afternoon. winds will shift from the southeast to
northeast later this afternoon as showers arrive. scattered
light to moderate rain showers will move through late this
afternoon and evening, with mvfr ceilings and visibilities
expected at both ksbn and kfwa. peak chances for showers will
occur from 22-00z tonight at ksbn and from 00-02z tonight at
kfwa. with cyclonic, northwest flow developing tonight and
overnight, ceilings will be prevailing mvfr at least through
thursday morning as additional clouds advect in off of lake
michigan. lake effect showers quickly develop in response
following the frontal passage. there may be a brief lull in
showers at ksbn between 02-06z for a few hours before starting
up again after 06z thursday morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1242 pm est wed nov 11 2026

.key messages...

- light rain overspreads se mi this afternoon and evening.

- a much colder airmass arrives thursday, triggering gusty north
wind and lake effect rain/snow showers thursday through saturday.
minor wet snow accumulations will be possible in the thumb.

&&

.aviation...

a pair of lows will impact the region through the forecast period
resulting in mvfr conditions and periods of rain. one low is
tracking just south of the state line while a second low will drop
se through the state this evening pulling a cold front along with
it. overall we`ll see deteriorating conditions with lowering
ceilings and periods of reduced visibilities within areas of light
rain. a west to east band of rain is setting up across mid mi which
will impact mbs and maybe fnt this afternoon, it fills in southward
across the rest of the terminals this evening for a few hours.
ceilings will lower through the night to mvfr with the front pulling
lower stratus and showers through thursday morning. light winds this
afternoon will become more northeasterly this afternoon as the
southern low draws near, and then becomes gusty out of the north
behind the cold front for thursday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet late this afternoon-
evening. high tonight into thursday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 410 am est wed nov 11 2026

discussion...

pseudo-zonal flow maintains benign conditions across the region this
morning before a significant pattern shift arrives later today and
carries through the late week. this shift is driven by a powerful
pacific jet streak working into western bc, causing downstream
trough amplification from hudson bay all the way down to the mid-
atlantic states. a shortwave embedded within nw flow over the
midwest first reaches the local area this evening with the attendant
height falls and pva ushering in deepening moisture with time. this
brings a 40-60% chance of mainly light rain late afternoon and into
this evening. a second shortwave originating from central canada
reaches the great lakes late this evening, marking the lead edge of
an arctic air mass. as these two waves merge overhead, a deepening
low will emerge east of the area and facilitate a period of
prolonged northerly cold air advection thursday into saturday.

the initial cold front is marked by an uptick in convective rain
shower coverage and gusty northeast winds thursday morning. this
precip works through from north to south with a brief lull before
the inbound cold air induces enough over-lake instability for lake
effect showers to kick off. prolonged nne sfc-850mb flow maintained
over lake huron allows a multi-band character to emerge thursday
evening, reaching peak strength friday morning as the next spoke of
pva arrives within deep cyclonic flow wrapping around the sprawling
upper low retrograding into the northern great lakes. these bands
will be predisposed to set up over the western/central thumb and far
eastern thumb, including the port huron vicinity. daytime
temperatures hold in the 40s on thursday with rain the predominant p-
type, then melting snow gradually takes over thursday night into
friday.

850mb temps fall to around -6c thursday night, setting up delta-t
over the lake of nearly 20c. model soundings highlight 400-700 j/kg
of lake induced cape and impressive boundary layer omega supporting
localized moderate to heavy precip rates where the bands ultimately
set up through friday morning. despite the colder air and heavier
rates, ambient dew points in the lower 30s and near record high
water temperatures (mid to upper 50s f) in the lake huron southern
basin will result in significant melting of hydrometeors. immediate
lakeshore areas stay mild enough to see nil snow accumulation, but
just a few miles inland wbz heights falling below 1000 ft will offer
potential for pockets of wet accumulations on grassy surfaces to
around 1" by noon friday. this is supported by 70-80% probability
for minor accumulations in nbm and refs ensemble data. a small
handful of individual ensemble members and operational model runs
advertise extreme snowfall amounts but these appear to be driven by
unrealistic slrs given the anticipated thermal profile and warm
ground.

synoptic flow backs to nnw friday night, saturday, and likely into
sunday which confines the lake effect banding to the northeastern
thumb. elsewhere, subsidence maintains dry conditions and looks to
eventually reduce coverage of lake effect clouds. the 850mb thermal
trough keeps temps on the cool side of normal through the weekend -
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s/lower 30s. a period of
rebounding heights ensues early next week as the longwave trough
releases eastward. this favors dry and stable conditions with a
gradual warming trend.

marine...

high pressure influence gradually exits the central great lakes
today with weak/variable flow while the next low pressure system
deepens and takes aim at the ohio valley. winds pick up considerably
over the waterways tonight as the system moves east. expect modest-
strong north-northeasterly flow, with a heightened wind and wave
response. latest model data continues to advertise a brief period of
gusts to near gales thursday morning for portions of lake huron, but
still looks marginal enough to preclude any gale-related headlines.
small craft advisories are in effect for all nearshore waters for
thursday. persistent troughing keeps winds elevated friday, albeit
with even lower chances for gales. extensions will likely be needed
for some of the small crafts, depending on how long the constricted
gradient holds on. potential exists for a waterspout or two during
this time-frame as shower activity arises.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 pm est thursday for lhz421-422-
441.

small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm est thursday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.