Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
816
fxus61 kcle 281847
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
247 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

.what has changed...
precipitation chances have increased to around 30-60% for much
of the area for a brief period of rain showers thursday evening
into thursday night. precipitation chances on sunday have
trended more towards sunday night. the forecast for monday has
trended drier.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from
isolated rain showers thursday night, will continue through
sunday.

2) rain chances return sunday night through midweek.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure remains over the east coast through thursday.
southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring
well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in
40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on
thursday (see climate section below).

a low pressure system located well to the north near the georgian
bay will bring a cold front across the area thursday night.
while moisture and lift is still lacking overall, precipitation
have increased to around 30-60%. some hi-res model guidance
indicate a decent chance at a brief, moderate rainfall with some
of the heavier rain showers, mainly near lake erie where there
could be slightly high low-lelel moisture/convergence.

high pressure builds back in friday through sunday, ushering
"cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the
60s and lows in the 40s/50s. some of the typically cooler spots
of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania could get down
into the mid 30s friday night.

key message 2...
as high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift
brings rain chances back sunday night into early monday. latest
model guidance has trended toward lower pops and a drier day
monday and even into monday night as precip is mainly tied to a
warm front that lifts northeastward across the area sunday
night. any rain that does occur will be light and likely less
than 0.1".

a low pressure system and upper-level low approach the area from
the west, with rain chances on the rise midweek. this system has
a better chance to bring appreciable rainfall.

temperatures will likely remain above normal into next week with
highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with vfr to persist
through the taf period. only minor tweak in this update was to
include vcsh at cle towards the end of the taf period as rain
chances increase ahead of a cold front.

outside of a weak lake breeze impacting eri/cle this afternoon,
winds will generally favor a west to southwest direction, around
5 knots. winds will then increase out of the south to southwest
thursday morning and afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with periodic
gusts up to 20 knots possible.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers along a cold front
thursday evening and overnight.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds become 10 to 15 knots out of the
southwest 10-15 knots tonight into thursday before shifting
northwesterly to northerly behind a cold front thursday evening.
choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin
remain possible behind the frontal passage. high pressure
returns friday and saturday allowing for northerly to
northeasterly winds to remain 10 knots or less. south winds less
than 10 knots develop sunday into monday.

&&

.climate...
we are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on
thursday. here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on october 29th:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...kahn
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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876
fxus63 kiwx 281708
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
108 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

.key messages...

- a few showers or sprinkles are possible thursday.

- showers are possible at times over the weekend, with the best
chances on sunday. forecast confidence for this period
remains low.

- cooler, but still above normal temperatures, arrive thursday
and persist into next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1259 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

increasing southwesterly flow has allowed a return to temperatures
in the 70s with some increase in near surface (950 mb and lower per
12z kilx sounding). further increase in moisture will await the
arrival of a cold front and a narrow swath of increased isentropic
lift and lower cpds to bring some potential for isolated to
scattered showers (maybe a storm) thursday. greatest lift seems to
exist during the afternoon, which would coincide with peak heating
(although clouds may hamper that to some extent). toned down likely
pops in nw to higher chance for now.

the passage of the front will bring a push of caa, essentially
cutting off 10 degrees or so from the high temps we have enjoyed
over the past several days. this is still above normal for the end
of oct. sfc high pressure will build across the great lakes, keeping
the warm and moist conditions just to our south through the upcoming
weekend. depending on the final resting place of the stationary
front and fluctuations in its location, some chance for showers does
remain in this period. by no means is there expected to be a washout
and halloween activities appear to be mostly dry.

models are in agreement on an upper low moving to the pacific nw
shores by 18z sat. from here differences increase as a series on
northern and southern stream waves either eject from this upper low
or move into the sw us. gfs remains the most aggressive with a deeper
upper low over ok by 6z wed, vs the ec/gem that have a similar
location but much weaker. suffice to say, plenty of moisture will
push north with this system but the timing of specific impacts to
our area remain in doubt at this point.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 107 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

vfr conditions through the remainder of this taf period.
southwest winds less than 10 kts expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
372
fxus63 kdtx 281856
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
256 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

.key messages...

- mild temperatures continue into thursday with highs in the 70s.
these high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- there is a chance of showers and an isolated thundestorms thursday
afternoon and thursday night.

- dry and continued mild this weekend.

&&

.discussion...

a jet exit region and upper level confluent flow will migrate
towards the canadian maritimes during the next 36 hours. the 1000-
500mb ridge will amplify over lower michigan, dampening the effects
of a deep shortwave trough lifting out of the northern plains to
james bay. precipitation free conditions can be expected for the
remainder of today ahead of the cold front along with temperatures
some 15 degrees above normal. a relatively dry cold front draped
from the shortwave will push across the forecast area between 18z
thu - 01z fri.

relative humidity progs in the plan view show an extremely narrow
moisture starved boundary as it pushes across the area, limited to
only a few tens of miles across. the current forecast has likely
pops of 50-60% percent between 18-00z which is adequate. the overall
ageostrophic circulation is expected to be very weak with lean 850-
700mb frontogenesis. forecast soundings show static stability
lingering between 4.0 -7.0 kft agl limiting coverage of activity
with mucapes of a few hundred j/kg. latest swody2 has now
introduced general thunderstorm designation for southeast michigan.
warm temperatures are anticipated thursday ahead of the front with
readings pushing into the lower 70s.

anticyclonic curvature to the zonal jet streak in portions of
central canada will lead to strongly anticyclonic flow curvature
over the great lakes friday and saturday. high confidence exists in
strong static stability between 3.0 and 17.0 kft agl. southeast
michigan will reside in the gradient to the 1000-500mb thickness
tempering high temperatures both friday and saturday in the lower
60s.

longwave ridge is forecasted to build across the region this weekend
and then continue into the beginning of next week. current high
temperature forecasts suggest temperatures reaching the middle 60s
some 7 to 10 degrees above normal. any pattern change with the
arrival of pacific energy appears to hold off until after day 7,
tuesday.

&&

.marine...

southwest winds will be on the increase tonight ahead of a cold
front. however, the warm advection pattern will help limit mixing
depths. nonetheless, the strength of the low level jet and magnitude
of the pressure gradient do look to support gusts at or above 25
knots, most prevalent over central lake huron extending back into
saginaw bay. a small craft advisory has been issued from late
tonight through thursday morning for these wind gusts. offshore
flow, however, should keep waves mostly in the 2 to 4 foot range
however.

behind the cold front, wind speeds look to be maximized over
northern lake huron where cold advection is most robust. 850 mb
temps progged to fall below zero thursday night, promoting deeper
mixing and northwest gusts of 25 to 30 knots. confidence is high in
a period of 25 to 30 knot gusts over northern lake huron. high
pressure quickly builds into the central great lakes friday
afternoon, setting up lighter winds and dry conditions over the
weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 153 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

aviation...

controlling area of high pressure exits further into the atlantic
today as a wave of low pressure lifts across the arrowhead of
minnesota. this leads to an uptick in south-southwesterly winds
tonight into thursday as the pressure field responds to the upstream
system. shortwave ridging aloft still lingers nearby overnight,
delaying an advancing cloud layer associated with the low`s
attendant cold front. ceilings should gradually fill in early
thursday morning from west to east, but likely remain vfr for most
of the day. models continue to advertise marginally sufficient
saturation depths to allow a few rain showers to develop along the
frontal slope. however, forcing is rather benign through the shallow
mixed-layer, prior to 18z, and rainfall is unlikely to have much
impact on visibilities. added a vfr -shra mention for fnt and mbs
for the last hour of the taf cycle, while timing for the remaining
taf sites occurs after the synoptic hour. not enough confidence for
a dtw mention, prior to 00z, as the front decays across an
increasingly dry environment. post-frontal winds veer westerly.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet thursday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......sf
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.