Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
832
fxus61 kcle 080739
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
339 am edt sun mar 8 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing for a widespread, wetting rain tuesday
night through wednesday, though the potential for any strong to
severe thunderstorms during this timeframe remains uncertain.
confidence is also increasing for gusty winds with a clipper
system on friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) the next period of unsettled weather is expected tuesday
night through wednesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy
rain and perhaps a few stronger thunderstorms. rain will briefly
transition over to snow wednesday night into thursday.

2) a clipper system will move east through the upper great
lakes on friday which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local
area. confidence is increasing for gusty winds, particularly
along and west of the i-71 corridor.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
guidance continues to suggest a potent upper-level trough
developing across the upper midwest and great lakes wednesday
into thursday. at the surface, a low pressure system will slide
northeast across the midwest and eastern great lakes, first
lifting a warm front north through the area late tuesday,
followed by a strong cold front late wednesday. rain will
briefly transition to snow behind the front wednesday night, and
can`t rule out a quick inch or two by thursday morning,
particularly across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

probabilities remain medium to high (50 to 70%) for much of the
area to receive at least 1 inch of rainfall tuesday night
through wednesday. likely looking at two rounds of convection
during this timeframe, the first being mainly nocturnal
convection associated with a strong llj tuesday night into
wednesday morning. a brief break in the heavier rainfall is
possible late wednesday morning, though will return wednesday
afternoon and evening as stronger upper-level forcing enters the
region. at this point, the higher probabilities for 2 inches or
greater of rainfall exist just to the west of the local area.

the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms still remains
rather uncertain given the multiple rounds of convection and
cloud debris, albeit within a favorable deep layer shear
environment. trends will continue to be evaluated over the next
couple of days, and anticipate slight modifications to the spc
severe weather outlook.

key message 2...
a clipper system is poised to move east through the upper great
lakes on friday, which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local
area with gusty winds. although some uncertainty exists in the
strength of the system amongst model guidance, confidence is
increasing for wind gusts to reach at least 40 mph and perhaps
near advisory-level, particularly along and west of the i-71
corridor.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
ceilings will be mvfr to low end mvfr for the rest of tonight
into early sunday morning. ceilings will eventually scattered to
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and vfr after 15z. fair
weather skies will around midday sunday into sunday night. winds
will be from the west 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
tonight through sunday afternoon. winds will relax under 10
knots after 00z this evening.

outlook...non-vfr is likely with showers and thunderstorms
tuesday night into wednesday followed by a rain/snow mix
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will build in over the lake erie today through monday
with southwesterly winds 10 to 20 knots. the southwesterly flow of
10 t0 15 knots will continue into tuesday. a strong low pressure
system will develop in the midwest and track through the great lakes
just north of lake erie on wednesday. southerly to southwesterly
winds will increase 20 to 25 knots. a strong cold front will move
across the lake wednesday evening followed by northwest winds 20 to
30 knots wednesday night into thursday. milder, windy weather is
expected through midweek which will likely to accelerate ice decay
on lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
239
fxus63 kiwx 080732
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
332 am edt sun mar 8 2026

.key messages...

- cooler and breezy today but temperatures still well above normal
for early march.

- more rain and thunderstorms are expected tuesday night into wednesday.
there is potential for heavy rain and severe storms with this
system but confidence in details is very low at this forecast
distance.

- temperatures warm back up for monday and tuesday with near-
record or record highs possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 328 am edt sun mar 8 2026

a passage of an upper level trough early this morning will lead to a
low level ridge axis building into the area along with a much drier
low level airmass as sampled by koax and kdvn raobs last
evening (pwats ~ 0.20 inches). skies should clear from west to
east this morning as a low level thermal trough continues to
build into the area. this thermal trough will have a short
residence time locally as a broad westerly flow regime allows
for quick transition to low level warm advection this afternoon.
under this warm advection, mixing heights should be limited to
900 mb or so, but mixing to this level and the waa should
support highs back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. despite the
relatively shallow mixing, low level wind magnitudes should
support afternoon gusts of 25 to 30 mph. conditions should be
more mild tonight (low-mid 40s) despite the expectation of
mainly clear skies due to some respectable southwesterly
gradient being maintained.

zonal flow and dry deep column persists into monday. the persistence
of this low/mid level westerly flow will allow for modified air in
the lee of rockies to advect eastward across southern great lakes
and ohio valley which will result in highs back to the upper 60s to
around 70 monday afternoon. by monday night, a weak mid level trough
should emerge from rockies with first shot of more respectable
low/mid level positive theta-e advection. this could give use to
some weak elevated instability later monday night into early
tuesday, but will likely be just accompanied by some increased
cloudiness in response to the moisture transport. near-record or
record highs appear possible once again for monday and tuesday.

the main period of concern for this forecast will be tuesday and
wednesday as the central conus becomes impacted by a very active
eastern pacific pattern. an eastern pacific jet streak will allow
for mid/upper level trough amplification across the northwest conus
on tuesday while at the same a cut-off upper level negative height
anomaly begins to shift east across tx panhandle. a low level
baroclinic zone across the northern plains and upper midwest will
sharpen early tuesday as this pacific northwest wave emerges and
will sink south across the great lakes during the day tuesday. there
is still some question as to extent of low/mid level lift during the
day tuesday as better dynamics remain well upstream. advective
forcing will be strong however, as a highly anomalous 1.25 to 1.50
inch pwat axis advects into the region by tuesday night. current
indications suggest a potential of a sharp instability gradient
setting up somewhere from the mid ms valley to the southern great
lakes/ohio valley. with possible lack of stronger large scale
tuesday afternoon, there could be some convective inhibition to
overcome due to low level inversion, at least until core of
anomalous pwat axis fully builds in some time late tuesday afternoon
or tuesday evening. did maintain just mid range chance pops across
the far west tuesday afternoon, but it is possible some downward
adjustment may be needed for much of the afternoon hours.

an intensifying low level jet, abundant low level moisture, and
position of low level baroclinic zone across southern great
lakes should allow for widespread showers and storms tuesday
night into wednesday. while finer details remain of low
confidence at this forecast distance, greatest potential of
severe may be tuesday evening into portions of the overnight
hours. moderate instability is possible for a time tuesday
evening, with early indications suggest best cape profiles
potentially across west/southwest. perhaps the best ingredient
in terms of severe weather parameter space is the kinematic
profiles and development of strong low/mid level speed shear
atop some low level veering. a scenario could evolve where this
sets up to a late night into early wednesday heavy rain scenario
due to parallel nature of shear to the low level boundary,
increasing warm cloud depths, and shrinking propagation
velocities due to the deep unidirectional nature of the flow.
portions of maumee/st.joseph basins are experiencing some stages
near action stage as a result of recent wet period, so we may
need to watch for heavy rain potential to push some sites into
flood stage later this week.

by wednesday, guidance does have a decent overall consensus in some
type of phasing between cut-off southern conus trough and the
amplifying eastern pacific trough. this could allow for some better
deepening rates of associated eastern great lakes cyclone by
wednesday, but the question will be how far east primary instability
axis is by this time. there is also a potential that mid level lapse
rates could be quite weak locally by wednesday in comparison to
tuesday. however, may need to watch for some severe
risk/additional heavy rain potential, particularly
south/southeast areas wednesday due to a potential of a strong
frontal response with this phasing system. some snow still looks
like a possibility on the backside of this system later
wednesday into early thursday before precip ends

the remainder of the forecast features no signs of a letting up of
the active eastern pacific pattern although under the background of
cooler low level thermal profiles that could allow for some snow
chances with a clipper-type system late thursday/early friday. some
indications also in medium range guidance consensus of a stronger
system late weekend, but still an expected wide range of solutions
regarding track/strength.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1211 am est sun mar 8 2026

infrared satellite imagery and surface observations show
overcast skies across the area with low-end ifr ceilings.
ceilings are expected to remain between 1000-1500 ft through
daybreak and then clouds quickly diminish later this morning.
expect vfr ceilings to prevail after 14-15z throughout the day.
gusty westerly winds prevail currently at kfwa with gusts up to
25 kts; expect winds to die down over the next few hours. with a
tight pressure gradient developing over the great lakes today
and a low pressure system passing north, expect increasing gusty
winds this afternoon with gusts as high as 25-30 kts out of the
southwest.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
623
fxus63 kdtx 080736
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
336 am edt sun mar 8 2026

.key messages...

- breezy southwest winds today of 25 to 35 mph expected.

- clear with above normal temperatures through tuesday. daytime
temperatures monday and tuesday are expected to be as much as 25
degrees above normal.

- widespread precipitation likely late tuesday through wednesday
with showers, thunderstorms, and snow possible.

&&

.discussion...

low impact weather is forecasted across southeast michigan through
tuesday with the primary interest focused on above normal daytime
temperatures. high confidence exists in isentropic downglide leading
to clear skies during the mid morning hours today with low sky
fraction then holding until sometime on tuesday. march insolation is
expected to result in highs today in the middle to upper 50s. high
confidence in middle to upper 60s tuesday (+25 degrees above normal)
with nbm 5.0 showing very little spread amongst the 25th to 90th
percentiles. another very warm day tuesday for the southern forecast
area as a stationary front begins to sharpen somewhere in vicinity
of saginaw bay down to the m 46 corridor. suspect a very tight
temperature gradient over the cwa heading into tuesday evening.
relatively modest early spring southwesterly winds are anticipated
the next couple of days. drying below the inversion will yield winds
of 25 to 35 mph today, with a persistence of southwest surface wind
both tonight/monday night to limit the minimum temperature response.

high impact weather is becoming increasingly likely wednesday for
the central great lakes region as a four corners closed low pressure
system ejects northeastward and phases with the northern stream jet
axis. deterministic global solutions are suggesting a long duration
precipitation event beginning tuesday night, persisting until 12z
thursday with entrance region dynamics leading to a frontal wave tue
night/wed and then the main trough and associated absolute vorticity
harboring deformation forcing wednesday night. the main concern is
the potential for icing/freezing rain wednesday as a subset of
guidance supports a shallow layer of subfreezing temperatures at the
surface advecting into the area from the northeast and undercutting
warm air aloft. the main trend of the global determinstics over the
past 24 hours or so is a slowing down of the composite
trough/phasing which has resulted in the westward/slower shift of
precipitation. difficult to gauge predictability yet, with
gfs/eps/gefs cluster analysis showing a considerable dipole variance
tied to the speed of the central conus composite trough axis at days
3 and 4. this uncertainty in the speed of the trough axis presents
all kinds of predictability issues with timing of the four corners
low. in fact, the latest 08.00z ecmwf suggests the southern
potential vorticity anomaly will not sneak northeastward ahead of
the trough and could miss lower michigan altogether. given the
amount of convection/thunderstorm activity and associated midlevel
latent heat content expected in the lower mississippi valley, low
confidence exists. will be watching model trends over the coming
days as the event pushes into the hiresolution window. for now, the
forecast resides on the warmer side of outcomes through 18z
wednesday.

amplifying pacific shortwave continues to be advertised for the
thursday night and friday window. from this vantage point, a high
potential for warm advection brings the potential for a snow to rain
transition.

&&

.marine...

brief period of lighter winds early this morning with the full
departure of yesterday`s system. winds quickly organize out of the
southwest and begin restrengthening by mid-late morning as stronger
low pressure tracks over northern ontario. despite flow aloft
reaching 50-60kt this morning, thermal profiles hold on the neutral
to slightly stable side inhibiting the degree momentum is able to
mix down to the surface. while a couple gusts to entry-level gales
are possible over the central waters of lake huron (including the
saginaw bay), confidence is low given the thermal profile. instead,
peak gusts around 30kts are most likely. similar forecast for monday
as another low quickly follows the first over northern ontario
resulting in similar magnitude gusts over the local area. a diffuse
pressure gradient sets up across the central great lakes by late
monday as the ontario low reaches northern quebec allowing winds to
turn lighter through tuesday. active pattern and stronger flow
return by midweek as deepening plains low pressure tracks over the
central/southern great lakes.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1206 am est sun mar 8 2026

aviation...

predominately mvfr ceilings within the weakening post frontal west
winds to begin taf period. expect mfr stratus to hold through the
night before low clouds begin to clear our in the 12-15z window
later this morning. vfr will then prevail under mostly clear skies
through the day. mixing depths increase towards the afternoon and
tap into lower level wind around 30 knots. this will result in gusts
to around 25 knots as wind direction settles back towards the
southwest. will see some high clouds begin to arrive this evening.

for dtw...mvfr ceilings likely to hold through bulk of the early
morning hours with clearing skies towards 14z this morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through the early morning
hours. low by mid-morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......kdk
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.