Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
803 am edt mon jun 22 2026

.what has changed...
qpf has continued to trend down today, with most areas only seeing
light to moderate rain.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain early this morning will give way to scattered
showers late this morning through the afternoon before ending from
nw to se. most areas will only see 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain.

2) dry weather and continued below normal temperatures expected
tuesday and wednesday before periodic rain chances return thursday
through the weekend along with a warming trend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest infrared satellite and water vapor loops show the
mid/upper shortwave trough axis now crossing the western great
lakes, with rap analysis placing the surface low over southern
indiana. broad warm air advection and isentropic ascent to the
north of the associated warm front extending east from the low
has been driving a shield of light rain, but it has struggled to
efficiently reach the ground all night. this is due to both an
abundance of low-level dry air and the best synoptic support
displaced just to our north. rap analysis shows an 80+ knot h3
jet streak crossing lake erie on the southeast flank of the
shortwave early this morning, so the greatest forcing for ascent
beneath the left exit of that jet streak has been over southern
lower michigan and southern ontario. this has set up the
strongest mid-level frontogenesis band over that area, and
regional radar loops support this in showing the higher
reflectivity bands up that way.

despite the best forcing displaced to the north, a fairly steady
light rain will continue through sunrise driven by the warm air
advection and isentropic ascent until a dry slot moves in from
sw to ne. as the low progresses ene across northern ohio late
this morning through the early afternoon, the trailing cold
front will slowly sag through the area. the rap and other hi-res
guidance depict better upper jet support as the trailing front
sags south, and weak instability should combine with this to
generate some heavier convective showers late this morning
through the afternoon. would not be surprised if some areas see
slightly better rainfall with this cold frontal round compared
to the early morning round due to the convective elements, but
overall, continued to lower qpf significantly from previous
forecasts. most areas will only see 0.25 to 0.75 inches by this
evening as the lingering showers end from nw to se. the clouds
and showers will keep temperatures very cool today, with highs
in the upper 60s/low 70s.

key message 2...
canadian high pressure will build down across the great lakes in
the wake of this system tonight and tuesday and eventually
settle over the ohio valley by wednesday. this will support dry
conditions and plenty of sunshine, but a continuation of broad
mid/upper troughing across much of the northern tier of the
conus will keep temperatures below normal

the pattern will become active again starting wednesday night
and thursday as a mid/upper shortwave drops through the broad
longwave trough and pushes a weak cold front into the region.
the amount of moisture return ahead of this front is uncertain
since the troughing will keep the main pool of higher pwats and
instability shunted well to our south, but the pattern seems to
support the idea that the front will become quasi-stationary
across the ohio valley region late thursday into the weekend as
it becomes aligned parallel with the west-east flow on the
southern edge of the broad trough. the front in the vicinity and
multiple shortwaves dropping through the trough will allow for
periodic showers and thunderstorms from late wednesday night
through the weekend. at this point, it looks like the greatest
coverage will be with the initial frontal passage thursday then
again saturday as a stronger shortwave drops through the great
lakes. temperatures will gradually warm thursday through the
weekend but will remain a little below normal until a better
surge of warmth and humidity potentially arrives sunday in
response to a ridge building upstream over the mississippi
valley.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
as low pressure moves into western pennsylvania this morning,
the steady rain is shifting eastward with it. portions of
northwest and north central ohio will experience drizzle or
intermittent showers as a front is pulled south behind the low.
ifr ceilings have also expanded on the northwest side of the low
pressure system and will persist through mid-afternoon. some
daytime heating is expected to enhance showers moving southeast
across the area this afternoon in the 17-20z window and may
impact mfd/cak/yng. isolated thunder can not be ruled out but
probabilities are too low to include. stratocu clouds will
erode from the northwest towards this evening with the potential
for stratus to develop as clouds clear. this seems more likely
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania where ifr ceilings
may return. northeast winds of 8-12 knots will back to the north
and may gust to around 20 knots near tol/cle/eri. winds will
decrease tonight as the low pulls away and high pressure builds
in from the north.

outlook...non-vfr continues into monday night with low
ceilings. non-vfr possible again in rain showers wednesday night
through thursday night.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds will ramp up to 20-25 knots on lake erie today as
low pressure tracks from central ohio east into pennsylvania. waves
will build to 4 to 8 feet with onshore flow. small craft advisories
and beach hazards are in effect through 4 pm west of the lake erie
islands and 10 pm east of the islands. north winds will decrease
tonight as the low departs and high pressure strengthens over the
great lakes.

the next low pressure system will pass north of lake erie on
thursday with a cold front stalling just south of the lake on
friday. southwest winds of 10-15 knots will veer to northwesterly
but look to remain at 15 knots or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz009>011.
beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez144>146.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 221042
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am edt mon jun 22 2026

.key messages...

- steady rain will exit the area later this morning with just a
low chance for isolated showers later today.

- large waves and dangerous currents are expected on southern
lake michigan beaches today. those visiting the beach are
advised to stay out of the water and away from piers.

- another round of rain is expected late wed into thu and a few
thunderstorms are possible. severe weather is not expected at
this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 am edt mon jun 22 2026

1005mb surface low continues to move through central in and will
shift into oh later this morning. a fairly complicated mid/upper
level pattern with one remnant vort max rippling though our cwa
while a more prominent wave crosses the tn valley and becomes the
focus for renewed convection well to our south later today. very
impressive (esp by june standards) deformation/fgen around 850mb on
the north side of this surface low capitalizing on some marginal
elevated instability and resulting in a band of moderate rain
roughly along/just north of the toll road currently where an
advisory was issued. this activity will weaken through the early
morning though with focus shifting to lower portions of the front in
our central/south through the early morning before low exits
entirely around 12z. some pockets of 2-3+" remain possible even in
our central/south through the early morning but overall rainfall
rates haven`t been excessive and should only result in isolated
areas of minor/nuisance flooding through the early morning. the bulk
of this rain should exit shortly after 12z. there could be a few
isolated showers through the afternoon as that remnant vort max
passes overhead but coverage and amounts will be very limited.

dry/quiet weather persists from tonight through early wed. cool
northerly flow results in highs only mid/upper 70s on tue despite
nearly full june sun. next midlevel wave digs into the great lakes
from the canadian prairies late wed and sends a weak cold front
through the region. a closed midlevel low is actually expected to
form over the northern great lakes and this front will take well
into thu before fully clearing our area. theta-e return and
associated instability is limited for area, especially given current
expectations for a primarily nocturnal frontal passage. will keep an
eye on the potential for a few strong storms both wed evening and
thu afternoon but for now the severe risk appears low. this front is
then slated to stall somewhere south of our area thu night-early
sat. the exact location still shows some variability in latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance but trend is for just enough of
a southward push to keep best precip chances south of our cwa. the
front will eventually surge back north as a warm front this weekend
as a very high amplitude ridge develops over the great lakes for
early next week. details remain hazy this far out but general
pattern recognition would suggest a few storms with the warm front
but then transitioning to a hot and dry pattern early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 642 am edt mon jun 22 2026

midlevel shortwave and associated surface low now quickly
pulling east. rain has largely ended at ksbn and will end at
kfwa within the next 2-3 hours. dry air advection will steadily
improve ceilings through the day. while current conditions at
ksbn are vfr, upstream obs and most forecast guidance suggest at
least some temporary mvfr ceilings through late morning. ifr
ceilings at kfwa will gradually lift to vfr no later than 21z
(possibly earlier). clear skies and light winds anticipated
overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through late tonight for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
late tonight for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
tuesday for lmz043.
small craft advisory until 5 am edt tuesday for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
539 am edt mon jun 22 2026

.key messages...

- showers with a rumble of thunder continue into early morning,
mainly south of the tri cities and northern thumb, transitioning to
light rain before ending toward noon.

- dry weather moves in this afternoon and continues tonight and
tuesday.

- slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue through mid to
late week.

- the next chance of rain arrives wednesday and wednesday night.

&&

.aviation...

rainfall coverage and rates will continue to decrease through the
morning hours as ohio valley low pressure weakens and exits
eastward. meanwhile, high pressure builds into the upper midwest
helping to stabilize lower michigan. uncertainty remains as to how
long mvfr fog/rain lingers today before mixing processes and the
influx of continental air work to dry out the lower portion of the
column. vfr conditions should expand across all terminals by midday
with rain-free weather expected for the afternoon and evening hours.
initial midday cumulus response could linger within the upper end of
mvfr until later in the day. a bit breezy with winds organizing out
of the north, gusting to around 20 knots. skies clear out early
night with decreasing winds.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected today and tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft most of today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am edt mon jun 22 2026

discussion...

clusters/bands of showers are in progress over southern lower mi
primarily associated with the strong mid level circulation that is
the parent to ohio valley surface low pressure. the system is still
supporting a wide range of convection from severe thunderstorms
along and ahead of the surface fronts, to elevated but still
cellular showers north of the surface low, to the clusters/bands
across much of southern lower mi. lightning has been absent north of
the in/oh border since midnight, however rainfall rates have still
been quite productive as the leading stratiform component last
evening quickly transitioned to clusters/bands as 700 mb isentropic
lift and frontogenesis activated ahead of the 500 mb circulation.
the most intense concentration of clusters and banding produced
event rainfall totals in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range from northern
in into sw lower mi based on surface observations and radar
estimates since 00z last evening up to press time.

there is still an additional round of showers and a rumble of
thunder yet to go as radar coverage steadily fills in over central
in/oh. this is where the low level jet activates new convection
within the 850-700 mb theta-e gradient before veering eastward with
the surface low center. href and refs 3 hr pmm qpf capture this
reasonably well and show it grazing the se mi area south of i-94
from now through sunrise. after that, precipitation rate diminishes
while coverage is maintained by mid/upper level deformation from
about the mid thumb shoreline to lansing during early morning. there
is good agreement in the 00z models that all rain ends in se mi
around noon.

satellite imagery upstream across the northern great lakes then
supports a decreasing cloud trend over se mi this afternoon,
although it may take until late afternoon to clear detroit.
decreasing clouds is mainly associated with larger scale subsidence
trailing the morning low pressure system as low level northerly flow
is just slightly cooler and less humid. the inbound high pressure
air mass gains greater presence late tonight and tuesday as the
mid/upper level short wave ridge builds over the midwest while
keeping the surface ridge to our west. this maintains moderate
northerly wind in the low levels that is still mild enough for a
fair weather cumulus field in the afternoon. guidance highs in the
mid to upper 70s further supports this air mass just maintaining the
already slightly below normal temperature pattern of recent days.

high pressure holds tuesday night, but just barely, as the long wave
mid/upper air pattern remains less amplified and progressive. this
has the current canadian rockies system reaching the great lakes
without much fanfare wednesday and wednesday night. model consensus
tracks the surface low through the northern great lakes which sets
up a standard warm front/cold front progression across se mi for our
next chance of showers and thunderstorms. this is another system
that brings little change of air mass as guidance temperatures hold
in the mid to upper 70s post front on thursday. this could change as
extended range models indicate a larger pattern shift occuring next
weekend resulting in a large closed low over the rockies and a
downstream ridge over the midwest. guidance high temperatures in the
mid 80s are offered in se mi by sunday.

marine...

a compact low pressure system will travel east across the ohio
valley through the morning. this will sustain east to southeast flow
across lake erie, and wind gust potential around 25 knots along with
elevated wave heights. a small craft advisory remains in place. some
isolated wind gusts 20 to 25 knots will be possible across lake st.
clair this morning, with lower magnitude wind speeds across lake
huron and the saginaw bay. widespread rain continues across the
southern great lakes, tapering off in the late morning to early
afternoon. wind direction backs north to northwest in the wake of
the low through the early week period as high pressure builds in.
lighter winds are expected tomorrow and wednesday.

hydrology...

widespread showers are in progress over se mi generally south of the
tri cities and northern thumb. there is a chance of locally heavy
rainfall in this pattern through early morning, especially toward
the ohio border. event total amounts of 0.5 to 1.0 inch are likely
along and south of i-69, with a chance of localized totals around
1.5 inches mainly south of detroit to the ohio border before
intensity diminishes considerably around sunrise. these rainfall
totals and time ranges suggest the potential for flooding will be
limited to ponding of water on roadways and other prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...bt
marine.......am
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.