Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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805
fxus61 kcle 091123
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
723 am edt fri oct 9 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains generally on track with widespread rain late
saturday night into sunday. we continue to get a handle on
timing of the remnants of isaias which have trended slightly
faster with this cycle. pops for saturday night are about 20
percent higher.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather and warming temperatures continue through
saturday.

2) widespread rain and breezy conditions associated with the
remnants of hurricane isaias will move through the area late
saturday night through sunday. rainfall with this system will
generally range from a half inch to an inch and a quarter. the
potential for flooding is low.

3) the next cold front will bring a chance of showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms on tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
temperatures will trend warmer through saturday as
an upper level ridge builds overhead in the wake of a departing
trough today. after a cool start this morning, temperatures will
peak near normal in the mid 60s to low 70s this afternoon. some mid
and high cloud will arrive this afternoon from remnant convection
ongoing over iowa this morning. southerly flow increases on saturday
as surface high pressure shifts to the east with a warm afternoon
and temperatures solidly in the 70s.

key message 2...
hurricane isaias is forecast to make landfall friday evening
along the alabama and florida panhandle coast. the tropical
system merges with a weak upper trough over the western gulf
with deep southerly flow providing good moisture transport north
through the day on saturday. the system is expected to weaken
to a tropical depression within 24 hours, with the remnant low
forecast over central tennessee by sunday morning. the overall
track has trended just slightly faster with rain still expected
to reach northern ohio after midnight saturday night. rain will
tend to be moderate but could briefly be heavy at times. breaks
in the rain are expected to develop by sunday afternoon as the
deep moisture axis starts to shift northeast and a substantial
dry-slot wraps north ahead of the closed low. precipitation
still looks to range from about a half inch to an inch and a
quarter with locally higher amounts possible, mainly across the
southeastern counties. the threat for flooding is still
considered to be low due to recent dry conditions and low
stream/river levels.

as for winds, the stronger wind field with speeds of 30-40 knots at
850mb moves overhead between 06-18z sunday. depending on the surface
pressure gradient, we could see some gusts of 20-30 mph ahead of or
with the rain as it arrives saturday night. could also see some
higher gusts with downsloping enhancement towards erie pennsylvania
and will need to monitor trends as gusts could peak closer to
35-45 mph towards the city. after the rain moves in, it is less
likely to see strong gusts with the rain stabilizing the
boundary layer but will need to continue to monitor the track
and strength of the low as it tracks through the ohio valley on
sunday. there is a low chance of thunderstorms, mainly across
southern portions of the forecast area. additional shower
activity will fill back in across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania sunday afternoon/evening. the remnant low will
quickly exit to the east sunday night.

key message 3...
after warming temperatures and dry conditions on monday, the
next cold front is poised to settle south across the region on
tuesday. this brings the potential for additional showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms. temperatures will settle back
towards normal behind the front on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period today. some
scattered mid to upper level clouds are possible this afternoon
into the evening, but nothing under 5k. winds will be light and
variable, though should be predominantly out of the south-
southwest at less than 5 knots through the evening then shift to
be out of the east-southeast after 00z.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain showers on sunday.

&&

.marine...
early this morning, north winds of 10-15 knots on central and
eastern lake erie will result in choppy conditions. conditions will
improve this morning as high pressure builds overhead and winds back
to westerly.

from saturday night through sunday, the remnants of hurricane isaias
will move through the tennessee and ohio valleys. we will be
monitoring the strength and track of the low for possible
adjustments to the forecast. at this time it looks like easterly
winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the western basin of lake erie
and may approach small craft criteria. winds back to northerly on
the back side of the system sunday night but are expected to
decrease quickly. the next winds of concern on lake erie will be
tuesday afternoon and night as southwest winds increase to 15-20
knots then veer to northerly behind the cold front. a small craft
advisory will likely be needed for central and eastern nearshore
waters.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...23
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 091043
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
643 am edt fri oct 9 2026

.key messages...

- a few sprinkles are possible toward lake michigan today.

- more widespread light rain is expected saturday night into early
sunday, especially east of i-69, associated with the remnants
of isaias. no significant impacts are anticipated.

- generally above normal temperatures expected through much of
next week before a more pronounced drop in temps is expected
later friday into the weekend.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 238 am edt fri oct 9 2026

dry airmass in place across the region with a warm front well
to the southwest from se nebraska to sw missouri. this front is
currently aiding scattered showers and storms across portions of
iowa. while the front will make slow progress ne over the next
24 hours, the area of precip will try to work ne well ahead of
it, but run into increasingly dry air with some saturation
starting in the mid levels. given the dry airmass, suspect more
of a sprinkle vs light rain risk, but for now have just lowered
pops to slgt chc category.

focus then shifts to warmer temperatures on saturday and
eventually some impacts from what will be left of hurricane
isaias late in the weekend. highs will climb into the 70s and
maybe a few 80s in far sw areas on saturday prior to the arrival
of a spoke of energy and inverted trough that pushes north
saturday night into early sunday. the main sfc and upper level
remnants will track along the ohio river, reaching west virginia
by 6z/12. an area of generally light rainfall will impact the
southeast third to maybe half of the area. bit higher rainfall
amounts are likely in far se sections (se of i-69) where some
locations could see up to a half inch. wind gusts will pick up
somewhat as well in this window in the same areas.

upper level ridging will try to take hold into mid week, but a
weak northern stream trough will drop in for monday night into
tuesday with another brief warmup monday (maybe more locations
touching 80). mid to late week will then feature likely phasing
of northern and southern stream systems, carving out a deeper
trough with the sfc reflection remaining well nw of the area. a
strong cold front looks to bring a much more fall like air mass
in its wake just outside the current period with 850 mb temps
dropping below 0 c.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 642 am edt fri oct 9 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals, with calm/variable
winds strengthening out of the s-se through the period. a few
sprinkles are possible at ksbn this afternoon/evening, but no
impacts are expected. left out of taf for now given low
confidence-there is a lot of dry air to overcome. otherwise,
expect mid-high level clouds and dry conditions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 091047
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
647 am edt fri oct 9 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably average temperatures again today.

- a few light showers possible late tonight into early saturday
morning.

- much warmer saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s.

- next significant chance of rain arrives sunday, focused over the
southeasternmost areas, tied to the remnants of isaias.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure will allow vfr conditions to prevail through the taf
period. light w-sw wind generally less than 10 knots will turn
towards the se this evening into tonight. dry airmass in the low
levels will keep clouds largely at or above 6kft. very isolated
chance for a weak rain shower to move across southeast michigan this
evening. will preclude mention given the minimal chance.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 325 am edt fri oct 9 2026

discussion...

se mi continues to reside on the northern edge of ohio valley high
pressure today maintaining light winds and limited cloud cover. with
no change in airmass, temps will be similar to yesterday with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to near 70.

upper level pattern shift begins by this evening with ridging across
the central conus fully expanding over the great lakes as the
surface high shifts towards the northeastern seaboard. as this
occurs, a weak mid-level shortwave riding the warm front lifting out
of the midwest is progged to track into the western, and eventually
central, great lakes. initially this wave is supported by
strengthening low level jet pushing out of the plains into the upper
midwest resulting in a modest area of showers while over ia/wi/il.
however with the llj fixed west of lake michigan, overall synoptic
support lessens as it reaches lower mi likely leading to a steady
diminishing shower coverage trend as it crosses west mi tonight.
that said, can`t completely write off light shower chances late
tonight-early saturday morning as the warm frontal boundary draws a
respectable ribbon of theta-e overhead. as such, have added entry-
level slight chance/isolated pops (15%).

region is firmly entrenched within low/mid level southwesterly flow
daytime saturday with strong warm advection pushing 850mb temps into
the mid-teens c resulting in highs reaching the mid to upper 70s.
core of this airmass (upper teen c 850mb temps) is still favored to
be directed over the far western great lakes/upper midwest reducing
chances areas within se mi manage to reach 80. remnants of isaias
reach the ohio valley sunday before being shunted towards the mid-
atlantic monday. despite this track well to our south, model
solutions continue to advertise the northern edge of the associated
rain shield clipping portions of the area. greatest rain chances
favored over the southeastern/easternmost areas (ie counties along
the huron-erie corridor) with potential qpf hinging on the extent
moderate showers are able push out of ohio before the low starts to
eastward drift.

marine...

high pressure becomes firmly established over the central great
lakes today as a ridge spills eastward and the upper level trough
overhead exits. markedly lower gradient winds with the surface ridge
axis oriented from the up to the mid-atlantic. return flow
eventually leads to a brief southerly wind shift this evening before
the pressure field adjusts to a strong and broad low pressure system
over the mountain west. the next forecast concern depends on the
timing and track of the remnants of hurricane isaias. winds are
generally expected to hold below threshold criteria once the system
lifts into the ohio valley, conflated by the advance of the upstream
low. can`t completely rule out a few gusts near gale-force over the
northern huron basin later on saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.