Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
259
fxus61 kcle 060642
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
242 am edt thu aug 6 2026

.what has changed...
showers should be a bit slower to move into the area today than
previously forecast, keeping the bulk of today dry. widespread
showers are now expected friday into saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple weak disturbances are expected to impact the area into
next week as a broad upper level trough remains in place. near
average temperatures will persist.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure becomes nearly stationary off the mid-atlantic
coast, the area will be impacted by multiple shortwaves moving along
a broader upper level trough into next week. currently, a weak cold
front is slowly meandering east towards the area, however is
expected to stall just west of the cwa today. this should allow for
the bulk of the area to remain dry, although some afternoon,
diurnally driven showers are possible given the increased moisture
flow and daytime instability. the better forcing looks to arrive
late tonight into friday as a mid-level shortwave helps to sag the
cold front closer to the area and allow for additional support for
showers. more widespread shower and thunderstorm potential will
increase in the afternoon with additional support from daytime
heating, but given weak shear not expecting any severe storms. some
of these showers will linger into saturday. locally heavy rainfall
remains the primary concern with showers that develop given a near
parallel mean flow, expected slow storm motion, and increasing
moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pwat values
climbing to 1.5" or more.

late saturday into sunday, there should be a notable break in
precipitation chances as the area falls under a weak ridge briefly,
but it will be short lived as another shortwave moves along the
broad trough and moves another weak boundary toward/through the
area. widespread shower and thunderstorm chances once again increase
sunday evening into monday. this shortwave will quickly be followed
by an additional one late monday into tuesday. with these general
unsettled pattern expected to persist into mid-week next week,
expect numerous rounds of showers across the area. showers into next
week will continue to have the heavy rain potential. in areas
impacted by multiple rounds, localized flooding will be possible. to
highlight the hydrology concern, wpc has at least a portion of the
area in a marginal ero through day 5. with the weak convective
elements, spc has only highlighted the area in general thunder.

temperatures through this entire period will linger near normal with
highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. with very muggy
conditions expected, apparent temperatures may climb closer to 90
during peak heating.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
a mix of low and mid level clouds are present across the
airspace early this morning. some radar returns in michigan and
indiana are pushing into ohio, but largely suspect that these
will be both brief and isolated and do not have rain in the ktol
taf. further east, a mix of fog and low stratus is starting to
develop along the ohio/pa border and will continue to expand
overnight. expect ifr/lifr conditions to spread to kcak and kyng
over the next couple of hours and last until daybreak.

for the daytime hours, very low confidence in shower and storm
activity over the immediate airspace. overall, believe that
activity will be both east and west of the area but not
overhead. some of the western activity may get to ktol and have
a prob30 for mvfr and thunder. otherwise, the main impacts may
just be a mix of low-to-mid level clouds that will spread across
the region. winds will be light through the period and generally
south to southwest.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through
monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours for
each day.

&&

.marine...
the lake will remain in the warm sector of a trough moving
through the great lakes region. light southwest winds will
continue across the lake today with low waves in offshore flow.
another weak low will enter the region for friday and saturday
and allow southwest flow to continue. a weak cold front will
swing through on saturday night, bringing brief northwest flow.
a stronger low pressure system will enter the midwest on sunday
and extend a warm front across the lake allowing southwest flow
to return. this low will get closer to the lake on monday and
enhance the southwest flow, potentially getting to 20 kts. there
is potential for brief marine headlines with this system early
next week, but there is still time to iron out details.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
512
fxus63 kiwx 060644
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
244 am edt thu aug 6 2026

.key messages...

- chances for widely scattered to scattered showers and storms
(20-50%) will persist into friday. locally heavy rain is the
main concern.

- additional, potentially higher, chances for showers and storms
may evolve late sunday into tuesday. heavy rain threat may
increase, but confidence is low in exact location of greatest
concern.

- seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 am edt thu aug 6 2026

a quasi stationary front has drifted se little more than 100
miles with a moist and somewhat unstable airmass south of it and
drier, more stable to the north. widely scattered showers
continue to percolate across the area with very slow overall
movement as a weak wave moves through. confidence in precip
chances through the next 24 to 36 hours remains quite low as any
increase in convection will need assistance of additional weak
disturbances. eventually, the front looks to slowly washout
later friday/friday night. cams are all over the place with pops
and qpf. given the concerns noted, have continued with slgt chc
to chc pops into friday and defer any increase to later
forecasts if trends become clearer. pwats of 1.75" or higher
will yield a small risk of heavy rainfall, with areas that see
training showers/storms seeing some limited flooding concerns
possible. wpc has maintained the marginal risk for excessive
rainfall.

there may be a lull in precip chances later friday into sunday,
but eventually another boundary will setup across the region
with increasing chances for showers and storms returning. while
chc to likely pops exist in the later periods, confidence on
location, timing and coverage remain low this far out.


&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 145 am edt thu aug 6 2026

frontal boundary remains to the west of ksbn and is in no hurry
to move east. widely scattered showers are popping mainly east
of ksbn and west of kfwa, but given the location of the front,
weak lift and modest instability the threat for showers will
persist overnight. thunder chances seem rather low so have left
any mention out. low confidence remains as to additional
convection through the day, whether in the form of pop up
development or upstream storms moving in late morning into the
afternoon. at this point, can only keep prob30 at both
locations. threat for precip likely ends at ksbn near/after 00z
fri with some cams showing some lingering precip through the end
of the period. went dry near/after 00z for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
566
fxus63 kdtx 060347
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1147 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight.

- an unsettled pattern continues thursday into the weekend with
periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

- temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

scattered light showers with isolated thunder chances persist
through the first half of the night before the driving wave shifts
east. increasing low level moisture along the front offers a window
for at least patchy fog development late tonight over the northern
terminals. ceilings lower into thursday morning as moisture
increases with mvfr likely front ptk-north. frontal boundary lingers
around the southern terminals thursday allowing for another period
of storm chances during the late afternoon-evening coinciding with
peak heating.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for a few thunderstorms
still work across the northern d21 airspace tonight. best window for
storm chances at dtw arrive thursday late afternoon-evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings below 5kft tonight into thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt wed aug 5 2026

discussion...

deformation stretches from hudson bay low pressure into the southern
plains, observed as a continuous band of cloud cover and line of
convection that bisects mid michigan. this boundary will very slowly
drift into se michigan this evening and overnight, and has already
started to generate low-topped showers over sw lower mi and a line of
convection across northern lower mi. so far have seen limited
evidence of deep convective growth, effectively limiting severe
chances this evening. the dry airmass is even more prevalent
southeast of the cloud shield, which currently spans from sturgis-
howell-bad axe and is a good delineation for rain potential this
evening. while the cloud shield is expected to expand east into the
detroit metro region overnight, rain chances hold off until
overnight-early thursday morning given the dry column in place (pw
~1.6" at mbs versus ~0.6" at dtw). even then, duration of rain
chances will mainly be tied to a glancing bout of moisture advection
as a wave travels from iowa to northern michigan early thursday
morning. thus highest pops exist in the tri cities and thumb.

higher confidence cloud cover keeps overnight lows several degrees
above normal--in the mid to upper 60s, which is close to afternoon
dewpoints across the tri cities and thumb regions. mos guidance is
highlighting a brief window for fog around daybreak, mainly across
the north where rainfall has saturated soils.

the surface trough lingers just to our west thursday, keeping a weak
convergence zone in tact before fully washing out friday. this
brings slightly cooler air into the region both due to the leftover
post-frontal airmass and dynamic cooling, with highs forecast to be
in the low 80s thursday and mid 80s friday. thermodynamic profiles
are right on the cusp of being unstable both days, but may struggle
to break the cap as mid-level dry air surges in behind the departing
wave. the best opportunities for convection both days will thus come
if one of the many perturbations in the wave train slides through
during the peak heating cycle. this provides the best support for
mid-level moisture/cooling as well as a more organized wind field
for updraft sustenance. not out of the question for a stronger cell
to produce gusty winds, but this is an outlier scenario in the model
distribution. periods of dry weather are expected to emerge between
episodes of rain, and may even see some pockets of sunshine.

longwave troughing stays entrenched across eastern conus through the
weekend, transitioning to a zonal pattern aloft by early next week
as the atlantic high dislodges. continued influence of the high
through the weekend maintains a gulf moisture connection, keeping
conditions unsettled as the wave train also persists. this supports
a continued pattern of oscillating wet and dry periods into the
weekend, while convective influence makes it difficult to pinpoint
timing. models at the moment are targeting late morning-early
evening timing on saturday for a frontal passage, which would be the
most focused period of ascent this weekend. high temperatures stay
seasonable in the mid 80s through the weekend as well.

marine...

a slow moving cold front will bring rain showers and a low chance
for some isolated thunderstorms across the great lakes through
tomorrow. for today, activity will primarily be focused across lake
huron and the saginaw bay, with increasing rain chances expanding
farther south into tomorrow as the front progresses. winds generally
remain light, shifting northwest or west after the passage of the
front. high pressure builds in in the wake of the front, with a
second cold front moving through friday to saturday. this will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms leading into and
through the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...mv
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.