Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
351 am edt wed oct 14 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast for this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected early this
morning with the passage of a cold front.

2) strong low pressure expected friday bringing widespread rain,
strong winds, and the coldest air of the season so far. frost/freeze
headlines possible friday night and likely saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak low pressure system has moved off to the northeast this
morning with the associated cold front moving across northern ohio
currently. along this front, showers and thunderstorms have moved
eastward into northern ohio and should continue east-southeast
through the morning hours. temperatures and dewpoints across the
region are in the mid to upper 60s and upper 50s to low 60
respectively. current mesoanalysis has mucape of around 500 j/kg or
less across the region and 0-6km bulk shear of 45-55 knots where the
thunderstorms are located. there`s ample dcape out ahead of the
front of around 1000, including a plume over the central basin of
lake erie. with the lake being fairly warm still, around 18c, this
may assist in some thunderstorms over the lake becoming more
organized in the coming hours. with that being said, severe chances
are fairly low for this event and if a storm or two does become more
organized then strong winds will be the main impact.

the cold front will sag southward over the next several hours before
settling across the ohio valley by midday today. there will be
potential of moderate to heavy rain with it as it does push south,
though should be isolated. as the front settles, areas south of the
us30 corridor may see periodic showers through this evening.
overall, not expecting much in terms of rain accumulation for the
region, with most areas staying around a few tenths to 0.25 inch.
exception would be the areas south of the us30 corridor which could
see up to 0.50 inch. rain will trend further south throughout the
day as high pressure begins to build in from the north. brief period
of dry weather is expected until thursday afternoon.

key message 2...
an upper level trough will begin to deepen across the canadian
prairies thursday night into friday and push eastward into the great
lakes region by friday afternoon. the associated surface low
pressure system will develop across the mid-mississippi valley
thursday evening morning northeast towards the great lakes. the cold
front that settled across the ohio valley today will lift north as a
warm front thursday evening into friday night. showers and
thunderstorms will develop along this warm front and move into
western ohio by thursday evening, moving eastward into friday. given
the timeframe the warm front lifts north, there will be little
instability across the region and a low level inversion setting up
with weak lapse rates. though, low level winds will be fairly strong
behind the front as the surface low begins to rapidly deepen. low
level winds will be 40-50 knots with 0-6km bulk shear around 50-60
knots. with this, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible into early friday morning.

the surface low pressure will continue to deepen throughout the day
friday as it moves eastward through the great lakes. the associated
cold front will pass west to east across the region during the day
friday as well and should be clear of the cwa by friday evening.
severe weather is not expected with the cold front as it moves
through. there may be some lingering lake effect rain across
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania into early saturday
morning with the northerly flow. some snowflakes could be mixed in
as well depending on how quickly the precipitation moves out.
though, given the rapidly deepening low pressure system, the
pressure gradient will increase behind and winds increase as well.
winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts over 40 mph from midday friday
through the early overnight hours behind the cold front. caa across
the region will help in mix down the strong low level winds. winds
may reach advisory criteria briefly friday evening, main areas will
be along the lakeshore from lorain county eastward and in
northwestern ohio. will need to assess the need for an advisory in
in the coming days.

with the strong caa behind the cold front and low pressure system,
it will bring in the coldest air of the season so far. overnight
lows friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s across much of the
region. areas across far northeastern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania may reach freezing temperatures. widespread frost
advisories and targeted freeze warnings will likely be needed for
that night. winds may be the a factor keeping frost from occurring
widespread as they will still be elevated 10-15 mph for most of the
overnight period. saturday night will bring more widespread
temperatures of near or below freezing. highest probabilities of
temperatures at 32 degrees or below will be east of the i-71
corridor and away from the lakeshore. winds will have calmed more at
this point, and with high pressure building in with clearing skies,
confidence is higher in widespread frost/freeze headlines for this
period.

with the high pressure building into the region on sunday,
temperatures will begin to moderate back to a more seasonal level to
start next week. dry weather is also expected from sunday through
early next week.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
a cold front currently resides across northern indiana,
northwest ohio and across lake erie. showers and thunderstorms
have developed near this cold front across parts of northwest
ohio (and further west), and should continue expanding eastward
towards the rest of the forecast area late tonight into
wednesday morning. thunderstorms will be accompanied by
visibilities down to 1-3 sm, and gusts up to 12-20 knots
possible (but gusts are unlikely).

as the cold front sags southward, precipitation chances will as
well, with low ceilings (700-1,500 ft) filling in north of the
front. after the wave of thunderstorms clears out this morning,
some scattered rain showers may persist into the afternoon
hours, though it`s pretty uncertain how far north. there is also
uncertainty in the amount of ifr ceilings that develop north of
the cold front but is most likely farther north and east within
the forecast area. ceilings should primarily becoming mvfr by
late afternoon through the rest of the taf period.

outlook...intermittent non-vfr is likely thursday afternoon
through friday night with wind gusts exceeding 30 knots on
friday.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are currently out of the north at 10-15 knots
after a cold front passed north to south early this morning. winds
will increase throughout the day to 10-20 knots and veer to be more
out of the northeast. waves will briefly build as well to around 3
feet west of the island to lake county. by thursday morning, winds
will have shifted to be out of the east at 10-15 knots, then shift
out of the south late thursday evening as a warm front moves north
over the lake. a strong low pressure system is expected to move
north of lake erie early friday morning dragging a cold front across
the lake through friday afternoon. winds will shift to be out of the
northwest behind the cold front and increase as the low pressure
system deepens rapidly to the northeast. winds will be 25-30 knots
across the lake beginning friday midday through saturday morning.
gale force winds will be possible from the islands eastward through
conneaut, oh late friday afternoon through early saturday morning. a
combination of small craft and gale warning headlines will be needed
beginning early friday morning through saturday afternoon.

high pressure will build in saturday afternoon with winds and waves
beginning to diminish. there will still be a moderate pressure
gradient across the lake into early next week, so winds will stay
between 10-20 knots out of the southwest through monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
329 am edt wed oct 14 2026

.key messages...

- a cold front will continue sliding southeastward today with
some showers possible as it does so.

- a lull in greater rain chances is expected later this
afternoon into tonight, but another round of showers and
storms is expected thursday and thursday night.

- there is a marginal risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along
and south of us route 24 for thursday evening. confidence in
severe weather is low.

- turning much cooler and windy for friday with some lake effect
rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 326 am edt wed oct 14 2026

with a ridge across se tx and surface high pressure in the se conus,
waves are forecast to ride atop the ridge and then work to break
down the ridge during this mid to late week period. as such, the
shortwave that helped to force the overnight showers and storms
moves quickly eastward toward the northeast, which allows a cold
front to slide southeastward into the ohio river valley pushing
showers southeastward out of the area early this morning. the
subsidence behind this wave is expected to quell any substantial
development behind it for the rest of the day, today. meanwhile, an
area of low pressure rides northward along the stalled front
stretched down into the southern plains and allows the portion of
the front stalled to our southwest to ride northeastward as a warm
front as early as late tonight into early thursday. so, while dew
points fall below 60f across the whole area tonight, they are
expected to moisten back above 60f again thursday afternoon and
night. it is interesting to see a stronger wave on the ecmwf bring
an inch of rain accums over 6hrs right up to our doorstep thursday
morning and this appears to be from some stronger large scale
ascent. this large scale ascent continues through the area during
the afternoon. this is different on the gfs as it splits the
stronger area of large scale ascent into two separate smaller areas
to the north and south and then the large scale ascent during the
afternoon is more diffuse or non-existent. this provides some
uncertainty on our marginal chances for severe weather thursday
afternoon/evening, especially on its location. instability appears
to get into areas south of us-24 on both the ecmwf and the nam (500
j/kg or less), but not the gfs. instability is elevated and the
column looks very moist so this would likely be a heavy rain
scenario with some potential for gusty to damaging wind if it is
able to get through the inversion. models handle the forcing during
this period differently so placement of rain bulls-eyes and
intensity of them are all over the place across the area. the gfs
has nearly rain during the 00-06z timeframe thursday night,
whereas the ecmwf has a bulls-eye over 0.5" nearby.

now, at the same time as an upper low washes out as it moves
northeastward towards the area thursday, a deep mid level trough
dives southward and pushes the remnant energy northeastward quickly
and swings through later friday through friday night. this is
followed by a strong 1040 mb surface high diving into the
southeastern us. so we quickly have rain (with minimal convective
component by this point) overtaken by lake enhanced rain during the
day friday. nam bufkit soundings indicate delta-ts as much as 20 to
30f degrees using lake temps around 62 degrees. lake induced
inversions rise up to 700 mb on these forecast soundings, which
fairly incredible. deeper moisture profiles arrive thursday night
and continue into early friday morning before drier surface air
begins to work in and cut off better rain formation. given the
strength of the surface high, much cooler air is able to enter the
area and low temps friday night and saturday night will fall into
the 30s. this turns the mind to frost possibilities, but friday
night looks like there will still be a bit of gradient around and
probably the wind is still slackening at this point. plus, we`ll
still have lake clouds dissipating. a slightly better chance for
frost occurs saturday night, but we`ll have to see if winds are able
to slacken enough at that point.

from saturday night, flow across the conus appears to slacken and
there is a period where nearly zonal flow is established until early
the following weak as another deep trough enters the western conus.
because return flow becomes reestablished, expect a warming trend
with a return to seasonable highs at least by sunday, if not by
monday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 128 am edt wed oct 14 2026

slow moving front will remain the focus for showers and
thunderstorms at ksbn over at least the next 2 to 4 hours. have
went with temp thunder through 8z, but this may need to be
extended. no changes to kfwa for now, leaving thunder mention
out but based on some of the upstream trends could need to
introduce.

convection will depart by morning with stratus building in with
mvfr cigs. improving conditions after 00z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
307 am edt wed oct 14 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures closer to normal and drier today, followed by
additional rainfall late thursday afternoon into early friday
morning.

- a strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier
conditions friday, with a few showers in spots.

- turing drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by
sunday.

&&

.discussion...

remnants of overnight showers/storms vacate the area early this
morning as upper midwestern high pressure builds in the from north.
elevated portions of the weak cold front in northern ohio are slowly
pushed south over the course of the morning which could still allow
a spotty light shower/drizzle through mid-morning along the state
border. otherwise dry conditions are established across se mi today
with cool northerly flow bringing temperatures back closer to
averages, albeit still some 5 degrees warmer than mid-october
normals.

influence of high pressure wanes over the course of thursday morning
as it tracks towards quebec. while this occurs, a southern stream
mid-upper trough ejects at out the 4-corners region over the central
plains phasing with a northern stream trough digging out of
manitoba. timing of lead rain has come into better focus with this
cycle of runs with showers expected to expand southwest to northeast
over the course of the late afternoon-evening (~20-00z) as the
elevated warm frontal slope lifts into se mi. a few rumbles of
thunder possible by late evening towards the ohio border area as the
surface warm front lifts north towards m-59 allowing at least a few
hundred j/kg of elevated instability to build over the state line.
surface low progged to slide directly over the area thursday night
coinciding the bulk of rain coverage/qpf with rainfall totals
generally falling in the 0.25-0.5" range.

synoptic rain tapers off friday morning as the low pushes deeper
into southern ontario. that said, parent upper trough swings across
the west/central great lakes during the day ushering in significant
cold air aloft (500mb temps fall in the -20`s c) steepening lapse
rates, which in combination with passing upper divergence, offers
scattered convective shower chances. increasing mixing depths within
post-frontal cold advection looking capable to partially, if not
fully, tap into 30-35kt flow aloft supporting wind gusts of 30-35mph
with potential to peak in the 35-40mph range. core of this colder
airmass reaches the area overnight, marked by 850mb temps falling to
around -3c. the edge of plains surface high pressure attempts to
nose into southern mi friday night as well promoting clearing skies
and diminishing winds going into early saturday morning. as such,
setup is favorable for the first freeze for a portion of se mi as
lows bottom in the lower 30s, especially north of m-59 where sub-
freezing temperatures are most likely. below normal temperatures are
short-lived however as central conus upper ridging expands overhead
sunday returning temps near to above normal for the first half of
the new week.

&&

.marine...

northwest flow takes hold today in the wake of a cold
front which will bring localized stronger winds and gusts across
lake huron where fetch is more favorable. wind gusts ranging between
20 to 25 knots are expected across north and central lake huron
through the early evening hours. a high pressure system will then
fill in across the northern great lakes starting tonight, which will
diminish wind speeds leading into tomorrow morning. lighter winds
hold through thursday as winds veer from east to southwest as high
pressure departs.

attention will then turn to the passage of a low pressure system and
subsequent strong cold front, slated to move over the great lakes
friday. the initial passage of the low pressure system will likely
bring numerous to widespread rain showers in the morning. passage of
the low will usher in a strong cold front that will usher in cooler
canadian air. the strong increase in instability as cooler air
filters in over the warmer lake waters coupled with prolonged
northwest fetch brings high confidence to see gust to gales across
lake huron and the saginaw bay, and likely south into lake st. clair
and lake erie. gale watches have been issued for lake huron this
forecast package with the potential said watches are expanded over
lakes st clair and erie in future updates.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1105 pm edt tue oct 13 2026

aviation...

post-frontal cool advection will allow stratus to continue expanding
southeastward from mid mi across the saginaw valley and thumb
through wednesday morning. highest confidence in mvfr ceilings is at
kmbs and kfnt. meanwhile, a disturbance aloft brings scattered
showers and lower vfr cloud across the rest of se mi during the
early morning hours, with isolated thunderstorms possible mainly
south of m-59. based on latest trends with guidance and the cluster
of storms upstream, did include a thunder mention in the metro
detroit tafs. light nnw wind early wednesday veers n and ne by
wednesday evening as high pressure builds into the northern great
lakes. inbound dry air favors scattering of lower ceilings by late
afternoon, with potential for lake huron stratus to then move inland
wednesday night.

d21/dtw convection...a cluster of elevated thunderstorms over
southern lake michigan may hold together as they track into the
airspace between 06z and 10z, so opted to include a tempo for tsra.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms early wednesday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from friday morning through late friday night for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......am/kdk
aviation.....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.