Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
399
fxus61 kcle 070658
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
258 am edt thu may 7 2026

.what has changed...
frost potential is decreasing tonight with clouds and scattered rain
entering more quickly. rain chances are increasing on friday with an
incoming system.

&&

.key messages...
1) cool weather will continue today with some spotty showers
possible tonight. clouds and rain into the region will reduce the
potential for frost tonight.

2) several rounds of rain are expected friday through sunday.
new rainfall amounts should be less than one inch with no
flooding concerns at this time.

3) below normal temperatures are expected early next week with
frost chances on sunday night and monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a surface ridge will briefly remain across the area for today,
allowing for dry weather. temperatures will remain on the cool
side of normal with highs in the 50s. an upper trough with a
surface warm front will enter tonight and allow for clouds with
some scattered rain showers. these clouds and rain showers are
timed a bit quicker than previous model cycles and this could
eliminate any frost potential tonight, as temperatures may stay
in the upper 30s or warmer.

key message 2...
a broader upper trough over the great lakes region will support
the development of a low pressure system in the region and allow
for rain activity for friday through saturday. the main warm
front will cross the area on friday with a subtle shortwave
trough. this should allow for some rain development across the
area on friday and have maintained pops. the main show for rain
should be friday night with a more refined shortwave entering
with a 35 kt low level jet helping generate some rain activity.
have increased pops to a mix of likely and categorical.
temperatures will moderate a touch on friday and saturday with
60s and maybe some lower 70s possible. a pair of cold fronts
will move through the region on saturday and sunday, bringing
additional rain chances each day. rainfall amounts should be
less than one inch through a four day period and flooding issues
are not expected at this time.

key message 3...
the pattern changing cold front will move through the area on
sunday and temperatures will return to below normal for 36-48
hours. low temperatures on sunday night and monday night will be
in the 30s and 40s. with a dry and clearing air mass, there will
be the potential for frost on sunday and monday nights, where
temperatures can get into the low-to-mid 30s. high temperatures
will be in the 50s to maybe 60 on monday and tuesday.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr will prevail through the taf cycle as high pressure slowly
slides into the eastern great lakes, although periods of high
and mid level clouds will impact all terminals. introduced vcsh
at all sites except kyng and keri late this evening as
isentropic ascent ahead of a weak low developing in the midwest
triggers widely scattered showers, but dry air should limit
coverage until after the taf period.

light and variable winds this morning will turn w this afternoon
and increase to 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots at times.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers early friday. periodic
showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are expected through the
weekend, best chance friday through saturday afternoon and
during the day sunday.

&&

.marine...
the lake will remain relatively quiet through the start of next
week as pressure gradients remain relatively weak, supporting
mostly low impact winds and waves. w winds will increase to
10-15 knots this afternoon, building waves up to 2 feet, before
turning sw and decreasing slightly to 5-15 knots tonight and
turning ssw and further decreasing to under 10 knots friday. s
to sw winds will gradually increase friday night and reach 10-15
knots by saturday afternoon before turning n and decreasing to
5-10 knots behind a fairly sharp cold front late saturday night
and sunday. n winds will then increase to 10-15 knots sunday
night and monday. no marine headlines are expected at this time
through early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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129
fxus63 kiwx 070603
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
203 am edt thu may 7 2026

.key messages...

- cold and dry tonight into early friday morning, with variable
cloud cover and lows falling into the mid to upper 30s. there
is a frost advisory in effect for michigan counties, where
areas of frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. patchy
frost is possible for in/oh counties, mainly north of us 6.

- chances for rain showers late thursday afternoon into friday
morning, mainly in michigan and for areas south of us 30.
highs will be in the mid-upper 50s, low 60s. lows in the 40s.

- better chances for rain friday afternoon into saturday
morning, then again saturday night into sunday. isolated
thunderstorms are possible for areas south of us 30 on friday
afternoon. highs will be in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s
saturday, and in the 60s friday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 404 pm edt wed may 6 2026

cloud cover will linger through late this evening, gradually
becoming more scattered or clearing all together. winds will remain
out of the west at 5 mph or less, with temperatures falling into the
mid to upper 30s (coldest in michigan counties inland from lake mi).
issued a frost advisory for the michigan counties tonight, with
areas of frost developing late tonight into early friday morning-
inland from lake mi. frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.
sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

patchy frost is possible in in/oh, mainly north of us 6 and west of
us 31--but temps will likely remain at 37 or above given cloud cover
is expected to linger longer (especially along/south of us 24).

otherwise, rain chances (20-40 percent) introduced for late thursday
afternoon and thu night-especially for areas south of us 30 and
further north in michigan counties. an upper level trough stemming
from a closed low over hudson bay will cross through during this
period. cold temperatures aloft will bring instability to the area,
with waa at the surface creating some weak isentropic ascent. this
could force showers along our southern cwa border by late afternoon--
where models suggesting a stationary front-like feature setting up
and producing shower activity through the night. additional activity
with the trough is possible in the michigan counties as well.
overall for both areas, have capped most pops at 20-30 percent (up
to 40 percent late thu evening) as models are greatly conflicted as
to the extent and exact location of the precipitation--moisture is
fairly limited-especially initially. the hrrr takes the boundary
further south of our cwa--which would drop our precipitation chances
all together--whereas the rap and the nam have a more robust feature
for areas south of us 30 (mainly in). otherwise, highs thursday will
be in the 50s and perhaps low 60s (warmest south of us 30). lows
will be in the 40s.

after a lull in precipitation friday morning into early afternoon, a
surface low will cross from southern il eastward into ohio. initial
precipitation chances friday afternoon into the evening will be
associated with warm air advection/isentropic ascent ahead of the
warm front, then with the deformation zone on the backside of this
low friday night into early saturday morning. have chances around 40-
70 percent, with the best chances along/south of us 24 fri evening.
there are low chances for thunderstorms (non-severe) south of us 30
friday afternoon.

saturday we`ll see a brief ridge of high pressure at the surface
with gusty southwesterly flow. highs will climb into the upper 60s
and low to mid 70s, warmest south. the low over hudson bay sinks
southward into james bay-so we`ll see several precipitation chances
with each passing trough/shortwave rippling through the flow. there
are low chances (20-30 percent) for showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late sat afternoon and evening, then better chances for
rain overnight into sunday (40-70 percent) as the main trough axis
swings through. high temps on sunday will drop back into the 60s.

mostly dry and cooler monday into early tuesday, with highs in the
60s. another wave will bring additional chances for rain (30-60
percent) by tue afternoon into wed. isolated storms are possible tue
afternoon-evening.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 149 am edt thu may 7 2026

broad upper level cyclonic flow is characterized by several
smaller scale short waves this morning. these short waves are
working with limited moisture and the only effect through this
morning will likely only be evident with some increasing high
and mid cloud. a stronger vort max will drop across the southern
great lakes this afternoon and some increasing
advective/frontogenetic forcing in wake of this upper trough
could induce some shower activity from north central illinois
into portions of northern/northeast indiana into this evening.
some low level moisture recover is expected in the wake of the
upper trough where the advective forcing is strongest, but
subcloud layers will remain quite dry with very limited
instability. will carry a prob30 group at kfwa for tonight
where some low level moisture recover is expected along primary
westerly low level jet axis. otherwise, vfr conditions should
persist this period with some increase in westerly wind speeds
today into the 10 to 15 knot range (some gusts near 20 knots)
during peak diurnal mixing.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 070352
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1152 pm edt wed may 6 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect for most of se michigan outside metro
detroit where lows drop into the 30s tonight.

- mainly dry tonight and thursday, but isolated late afternoon
and/or evening showers are possible.

- temperatures recover over the weekend with potential for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

vfr ceiling above 5000 ft maintains considerable coverage across
lower mi leading up to midnight. an earlier flare-up of returns on
radar toward the tri cities and northern thumb proved to be a
substantial virga footprint, save a sprinkle, due to very dry air
below cloud base as shown in the 00z dtx sounding. these cloud
conditions are set up by a smaller scale mid level circulation
rounding the southern fringe of the hudson bay long wave trough.
passage of this wave leads to decreasing clouds late tonight and in
the morning until the next mid level feature arrives in the
afternoon. this brings a return of vfr clouds above 5000 ft during
the afternoon into thursday evening with a boost of afternoon
instability capable of a few sprinkles east of the terminal
corridor. the associated diffuse surface pressure field supports
light w-nw wind through the period.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 pm edt wed may 6 2026

discussion...

numerous shortwaves observed via mid level water vapor imagery this
afternoon, stretching from the northern plains into northern
manitoba. these waves are embedded within the larger scale troughing
pattern that surrounds a closed hudson bay low and will be
responsible for below normal temperatures and an unsettled/low
predictability pattern through the weekend.

visible satellite imagery shows healthy coverage of diurnal cu this
afternoon, while high cloud filters in aloft in the presence of a
strengthening ~150 knot jet streak that is pushing into the ohio
valley. a band of virga is observed via mrms composite radar at the
nose of the jet streak, although the 12z kdtx raob and subsequent
forecast soundings depict a deep layer of mid-level dry air to
prevent this from reaching the ground. nonetheless, cannot
completely rule out a stray shower this evening mainly as the lead
shortwave pivots across the great lakes and briefly moistens the mid-
levels. loss of diurnal heating and negative vorticity advection
allow clearing for a few hours before daybreak which sets up a
period of radiative cooling. this aligns with the arrival of the
thermal trough in which h8 temperatures drop to -5 to -10 c, with
forecast lows in the mid-30s. a frost advisory has been issued for
most of se michigan as a result.

thursday forecast will be similar to today, with below normal
temperatures only in the mid 50s even with pockets of solar
insolation in the morning. inverted-v soundings suggest another dry
day, even with slightly deeper boundary layer moisture and diurnal
cloud development.

lower predictability in the pattern exists thursday night into the
weekend as the embedded waves over canada release into the great
lakes. deep moisture will still be hard to come by given the
northern stream influence aloft, although gradual moisture
improvements are expected in the low levels as the surface high
drifts toward the mid-atlantic and return flow develops upstream.
lead edge of warm advection arrives thursday night, creating the
next chance for showers and bringing a warmer airmass into the region
friday (low 60s)-saturday (upper 60s). a more focused opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend as a cold front
sweeps across se michigan. enhancements to the low level jet ahead of
the front will lead to breezy southwest flow saturday. drier and
cooler conditions then return for early next week in the post-
frontal regime.

marine...

minimal marine concerns in the next few days as we are locked in
with a broad upper level trough through that time. weak pressure
gradient at the surface will keep winds light, generally under 20
knots through friday. there will be several weak systems over the
region during this time as well but really only amounting to low
chances of precipitation. the next notable cold front will come
through on saturday bringing increased winds and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt thursday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068-069-075-082.

lake huron...none.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...mv
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.