Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
556 am est sat jan 31 2026

.what has changed...
cold temperatures are still expected through this weekend, but
the need for a cold weather advisory for tonight into sunday has
diminished with slightly warmer temperatures and wind chills.
the previously mentioned mid-week system moving through the ohio
valley continues to trend south and local impacts are no longer
anticipated. there is increasing confidence on cold and winter
weather late next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) cold weather will continue through sunday night with
temperatures below 20 degrees and overnight lows near to below
zero. wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder are
expected this morning and tonight into sunday morning and will
allow for continued frostbite and exposure risks.

2) light snow chances remain through tonight and again on monday,
which could prompt some marginal travel impacts.

3) there is increasing potential for active winter weather late
next week. accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are
possible, but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
arctic high pressure to the west and an upper trough moving
through the great lakes region will continue to reinforce cold
air over the area through sunday. low temperatures this morning
will be near record values for several locations and current
records for official climate locations are listed below. winds
remain light at 5 kts or less. with the cold temperatures, just
a 4 to 5 kt wind is allowing for wind chills to verify the
ongoing cold weather advisory that is valid until 11 am. high
temperatures will remain 20 degrees or colder through sunday
night, making the 8th or 9th consecutive day below 20 degrees
for many folks. this will only continue to amplify any
infrastructure issues across the region with the sustained cold.

the main forecast consideration this morning is with
temperatures and wind chills tonight into sunday. with high
pressure off more to the southwest and with the upper trough
supporting some clouds and very light snow showers, lows may be
a bit elevated compared to this morning in the 5 to -5f range.
winds will also be a bit more elevated in the 5 to 8 kt range
across the area. this combination will allow for wind chills in
the -5 to -13f range at this time and will forgo issuing another
cold weather advisory for tonight into sunday morning. if clouds
and snow do not materialize today, then this may need to be
reconsidered with the next forecast package.

key message 2...
there continues to be a low end threat of light snow showers
today with an upper trough moving through the region coincident
with a small pocket of low level moisture. when combined with
some small element of lake enhancement from a mostly frozen lake
erie and some distant connection to lake huron, there are likely
going to be some light snow showers and clouds present across
the forecast area today. overall, snow accumulations look very
minor but the forecast has been edited to give everyone a minor
20-30% pop and a trace to a few tenths of snow.

for monday into monday night, there will be a warm front that
will move through the region on the northwest side of high
pressure. this system will allow for another round of light snow
showers for the entire forecast area. this front appears to move
quickly through the area and may also have just some limited
moisture. therefore, have 20-30% pops and minor accumulations
for now.

key message 3...
while mentioned in the past two forecast discussions, the
potential mid-week system moving through the ohio valley has
trended south. there are no longer any snow or winter weather
impacts expected on wednesday with a dry forecast in place.

however, the late week signals for another sustaining cold air
mass and a potential system with widespread snowfall continue
with another deep upper level trough setting up over the eastern
conus. any impacts would be friday and beyond, but there are
still many details to iron out, as this system is 6-7 days out.
for now, the confidence in the magnitude of snow and cold are
low but the potential exists for impacts. moreover, this
reinforcing cold air late in the week may allow for most of the
area to remain below freezing for over two weeks, which hasn`t
happened since february 2021.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
at the surface, a weak trough axis will drift s`ward across our
region through about 17z/sat. otherwise, a ridge builds from
the north-central united states and vicinity through 12z/sun.
our regional surface wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to
10 knots through the taf period. wind direction is expected to
trend variable ahead of the trough axis and nw`erly to n`erly
behind the trough axis.

widespread stratocumuli with bases near 2kft to 5kft agl continue
to overspread our region generally from north to south through
midday. from midday through 12z/sun, widespread ceilings near
1.5kft to 3kft agl are expected over northern oh and nw pa.
these stratocumuli should produce periodic light snow,
especially this morning through early evening, due to a
combination of convergence/moist ascent along the surface trough
axis, self-destructive sunshine, and the potential for limited
lake-effect snow to stream generally s`ward over/downwind of mainly
ice-covered lake erie. primarily vfr to mvfr visibility is expected
in these snow showers.

outlook...periodic non-vfr due to low clouds and/or snow
expected through this wednesday.

&&

.marine...
wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this
wednesday. primarily n`erly to w`erly winds are forecast on
lake erie through sunday as a ridge builds from the north-central
united states and vicinity. the ridge begins to exit e`ward
sunday night through monday, which will cause w`erly winds to
shift to sw`erly. sw`erly winds veer to w`erly monday night
through tuesday as a very weak cold front drifts e`ward across
lake erie. behind the front, w`erly to n`erly winds are expected
through wednesday as another ridge builds from the north-central
united states and vicinity. the continued presence of a cold
air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice
cover on lake erie to expand and thicken further through the
middle of next week.

&&

.climate...
record cold low temperatures are possible this morning. here
are the current records for january 31st:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...cold weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 am est sat jan 31 2026

.key messages...
- heavy lake effect snow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
and poor visibility is impacting lake mi-adjacent counties
this morning and may stall just to our west midday into the
afternoon.

- another cold night is in store tonight with a 20 percent
chance for wind chill values lower than advisory criteria
(-15f) mainly along and east of i-69

- temperatures warm into the 20s starting sunday and continuing
through the work week.

- a system moves through later sunday night through monday with
light snow totaling less than 1 inch.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 253 am est sat jan 31 2026

the lake effect band that was affecting lake mi-adjacent counties
this morning had produced 4 inches in 1 hour in porter county where
it was stationary last evening. it was more transient along our lake
shore, but visibility was down to around 1 mi in many locations in
this area. bottomline is that this lake effect snow was producing
heavy snow at high rates. use caution while driving underneath that
snow band. additionally, there was a smattering of wind chill values
between -10 and -15f this morning mainly east of i-69. be sure to
bundle up if outside this morning. wind chill values are expected to
warm up to around zero around midday today.

the vort max swings southeast away from the area today and this
takes the low level moisture away from lake mi and pushes the
convergent low level winds back westward this morning. the lake
effect snow band was bringing moderate to heavy lake effect snow to
laporte county as well as southwest berrien county after midnight
(especially after 5z), but has begun its westward swing behind
a sfc trough diving southward through mi where its eventual
dissipation will occur this morning.

dry air takes over for areas east of us-31 this morning and for
western areas this evening, as mid level ridging and surface high
pressure influence the area, and continues through sunday night.
through this period, 850 mb temperatures rise from around -20c to
around -10c, but surface temperatures still look cold enough to
bring wind chills down between -10 and -14f. winds go light to calm,
but clouds clear out so ingredients are mixed around creating cold
enough wind chills. did find some probabilities of wind chills lower
than -14f and those are actually lower (~20 percent, but more
widespread east of i-69) for saturday night than what they were last
night for this morning (~20-40 percent, mainly nw oh). moving
forward, temperatures continue to rise allowing our highs, which
were in the teens on friday and that`s expected again today, to
reach the 20s on sunday and stay in the 20s through thursday. lows
will stay in the teens early next week, but could fall into the
single digits at times for the end of the week.

back to the precipitation chances after sunday night, our next snow
chance occurs as a result of a low pressure system and accompanying
shortwave passing by to the north of the area and pushing an
occluded front through the area. it does look like there is a
moisture plume that could be tapped into, but it appears to be more
pacific in origin as opposed to from the gulf. it appears like there
could be some lake enhancement, but parameters/ingredients for it
appear to be lacking resulting in only a small addition, especially
with it being iced up some now. also, the dgz is rather high up and
has varying model solutions around if omega is within the dgz or
not. the best moisture does appear to reside within the dgz, but the
nam solution which has omega in the dgz also has the best omega just
below the dgz, which would indicate a riming situation and lower the
slr. it does appear like there could also be some dry air issues to
obstruct snow reaching the ground. all this appears to factor into
the 6 hrly qpf appearing rather lacking 6 to 18z monday, which then
lowers snowfall amts.

for late monday night and tuesday morning, an upper low centers over
the northern great lakes and directs another shortwave towards the
area. different timing and strengths of this wave allows varying
times to precipitation creation, but it appears that some light snow
may be possible across our southern tier of counties from white to
jay county, in. dry air on its northern fringe may also be a factor
in keeping snow from the area altogether.

otherwise, surface high pressure nosing in and mid level height
rises tuesday night keep the area devoid of precipitation until the
thu/fri time period. varying solutions on storm track for a clipper-
like system increase chances for precipitation to the area. the
aigfs brings its precipitation farther south than the regular gfs,
but that`s closer to the ecmwf/gem camp. have maintained pops for
this time period from the nbm.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 618 am est sat jan 31 2026

light snow will taper off within the next hour as dry air
filters south and lake effect shifts west of the area in
northerly flow. upstream obs show a large area of mvfr stratus
though that will likely impact kfwa for much of the day and
perhaps ksbn through the late morning. after that, vfr
conditions are expected during the evening and overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 6 am cst early this morning for
inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
655 am est sat jan 31 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers impact the eastern thumb region today
with localized 1 to 3 inch accumulations.

- cold tonight/sunday morning with low temperatures in the -10 f to
+5 f range.

- sunshine on sunday leads to temps climbing into the low-mid 20s,
with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

&&

.aviation...

predominately mvfr ceilings across southeast michigan as relatively
light northerly winds maintain the low level moisture flux off the
lake. flurries and possibly isolated light snow showers accompany
this moisture inland this morning. mvfr ceilings are likely to
prevail through today as inversion holds clouds in place along with
periodic flurry activity, mainly across ptk and south. dry air will
push into the area from the north this evening bring a clearing trend
from north to south. some uncertainty exists in how much clearing
occurs across the ptk and points south as models want to hang onto
mvfr ceilings this evening into tonight. will play it optimistically
for some clearing, but leave scattered low clouds highlighting the
potential.

for dtw...mainly flurries are expected through the morning and early
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. low to moderate tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am est sat jan 31 2026

discussion...

flurries/very light snow showers working through southeast michigan,
as a surface trough sinks south early this morning. pronounced upper
level ridge over lake superior extending northeast to james bay will
gradually move over the central great lakes by late sunday. this
will support sunny skies on sunday and milder temps in the low to
mid 20s. before we get there, will have to contend with some light
lake effect snow showers over the eastern thumb region today with
prolonged north-northeast winds. these northerly winds and increasing
subsidence will actually allow for warmer air to stream into
southeast michigan, as 850 mb temps rise to -10 c by this evening.
nam soundings still looks favorable for snow showers across the
eastern thumb this morning with decent 925 mb lift and supersaturation
with respect to ice in the dgz for a period. however, low inversion
heights 3-4 kft, extensive ice cover over southern lake huron
limiting moisture flux, coupled with the movement of the bands should
be able to keep accumulations in check. will continue to highlight
localized accumulations of 1-3 inches before activity tapers off late
today.

despite the building heights and warmer airmass aloft tonight, a
good radiating night is expected as skies should be clear/mostly
clear as winds go calm with a surface ridge building in. as such,
loaded the colder mav guidance (-10 f to + 5 f) for mins tonight,
which has support from the regional gem.

weakening shortwave trough/narrow upper level pv filament will bring
a chance of light snow on monday. however, dry air in the low levels
and weak forcing suggests minimal accumulation, if at all, as even a
couple hundreths of qpf may be hard to come by.

500 mb low tracking southeast from northwest ontario and into the
eastern great lakes monday night will delay/offset the warming trend
on tuesday and wednesday, but highs still reaching into the 20s.

amplified upper level ridge over the western third of the
conus/western canada for the work week, with a strong pacific wave
riding over the top and into the great lakes region on friday. warm
advection ahead of this feature and associated surface low will
allow temps to make a run toward the freezing mark, particularly
toward the southern michigan border. however, the warm front will
become active as 4 to 4.5 g/kg of specific humidity tracks into the
state thursday night. euro ensembles indicating at least a 60 percent
chance of tenth of an inch or greater of qpf. thus, a couple inches
of snow looks possible as we head into friday.

marine...

north-northeast winds up to around 15kts with gusts peaking near
20kts continue today before the northern edge of plains high
pressure expands over the central great lakes by tonight. this high
brings light (<15kt) winds to close out the weekend. a weak clipper
arrives late day monday but aside for scattered light snow showers,
brings minimal marine impacts with accompanying winds holding at or
below 20kts. another high dropping out of the upper midwest then
follows for midweek.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.