Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
723 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

.what has changed...
not much has changed from previous forecast. cool weather this
weekend followed by a brief warm up early next week. a cooler
weather pattern will return for the end of next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure and cool weather expected for the rest of this
weekend.

2) there will be a brief warm up ahead of a cold front monday
into tuesday. an upper level trough will develop over the great
lakes region and bring below average temperatures for the end
of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
weak high pressure is building down from ontario canada this
weekend. skies will stay pretty much overcast today through
early sunday with gradual clearing by sunday afternoon. there
will be a northeast to easterly flow today through sunday that
will keep temperatures on the cooler side. temperatures will
range from the middle 50s near the lakeshore to the middle 60s
closer to central ohio today. high temperatures on sunday will
range from the upper 50s near the lakeshore to middle to upper
60s closer to central ohio.

key message 2...
a low pressure system will track northeastward through the
midwest into western great lakes on monday with a trailing cold
front. southerly winds will return on monday and warmer
temperatures with high temperatures in the lower to upper 70s.
most of monday will be dry with partly cloudy skies. later
monday night, scattered showers and isolated thunder will move
in from west to east ahead of the approaching cold front. the
actual cold front will move across the area by tuesday
afternoon. additional scattered showers and isolated thunder
will be likely on tuesday. temperatures will still be warm on
tuesday in the lower to middle 70s. an upper level trough begins
to take shape over the great lakes region for the middle and end
of next week with a cooler weather pattern. a wave of low
pressure will track across the ohio valley and mid-atlantic
region on wednesday with additional chances for scattered
showers over the area. much cooler temperatures will arrive
later next week with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the
30s and 40s. we will have to keep an eye on a couple nights late
next week for the possibility of frost and or freezing
temperatures in regards to the growing season.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
mostly ifr/lifr conditions with both ceilings and visibility
(from br/dz) are observed across the area, with more mvfr across
northwest ohio. these conditions should generally continue
through tonight with lifr becoming a bit more common, especially
closer to lake erie in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. a few models are showing fog developing late
tonight in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. this will
mainly impact keri but could briefly impact kyng and kcle at
times. conditions will quickly improve to mvfr late sunday
morning and the vfr with mostly sunny skies by sunday afternoon.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected
monday night through thursday. occasional thunderstorms are
expected monday night through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a high pressure ridge builds slowly from the james bay area
through tonight and then exits slowly e`ward on sunday through
monday. waves of 3 feet or less are expected as winds around 5
to 15 knots veer gradually from n`erly to e`erly to se`erly.
note: patchy fog is expected over lake erie the rest of today
through late sunday morning as colder and fairly moist air
crosses the ~49f lake.

during monday night through wednesday morning, a low should
deepen and wobble nne`ward from the upper ms valley to hudson
bay. the accompanying warm front should sweep ne`ward across
lake erie monday night through early tuesday afternoon and be
followed by the e`ward passage of a cold front tuesday evening
through tuesday night. by daybreak wednesday, the cold front
should be located over far-eastern lake erie and may stall for a
time before exiting the rest of the lake to the east by midday
as a secondary low potentially moves nne`ward along the front.
the warm front passage will cause e`erly to se`erly winds around
15 to 25 knots to veer to s`erly to sw`erly. the cold front
passage will cause s`erly to sw`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots
to veer to nw`erly. waves as large as 3 to 6 feet are expected
monday night into tuesday morning. waves should then subside
gradually to 3 feet or less the rest of tuesday through
wednesday morning. forecast trends may prompt a small craft
advisory.

during wednesday afternoon, a trough should linger over lake
erie before a high pressure ridge builds from the north-central
united states wednesday night through thursday. w`erly to
nw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less
are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...saunders
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
124 am edt sun apr 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable through the weekend with temperatures in the
mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

- confidence is increasing that there could be severe weather
late monday afternoon through monday night. damaging winds
and embedded tornadoes will be the main threats. there is also
potential for heavy rain and flooding after sunset on monday.

- cooler air is ahead next week to begin may! highs only in the
50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s will be possible
by the middle to end of next week. near freezing temperatures
at night may damage early season crops and plants!

&&

.discussion...
issued at 336 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

today is about as quiet of a day as you can get across the upper
great lakes in april with mostly sunny skies, light northerly winds,
and temperatures in the 60s this afternoon. thanks to an upper level
ridge, another pleasant day is ahead sunday with nearly
identical conditions (albeit a bit more cloud cover, especially
in the morning). seasonable temperatures persist with caa from
prevailing northerly winds.

confidence is increasing that there could be severe weather late
monday afternoon through monday night. a series of strong 500 mb
shortwaves will eject out of the colorado rockies late sunday, with
a low pressure system developing across the central plains and
deepening as it lifts into the upper midwest by monday evening. a
warm front is expected to lift northward through our area during the
day monday, with breezy southwesterly winds and waa boosting highs
to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. moisture return from the gulf
will also boost dewpoints into the low to mid 60s monday afternoon.
clusters of storms or a more organized qlcs should develop and move
through iowa, missouri, and illinois during the afternoon on monday.
the current thinking is that this convection will sustain itself
into our forecast area by monday evening into monday night, although
uncertainty remains on just how far east it will be able to maintain
severe status. an enhanced risk for severe weather does clip our far
southwest (white county, in), with a slight risk across much of
northern indiana. model runs today have slightly sped up the timing
of the warm front during the day monday, which would mean our area
ends up in a more favorable environment for severe weather; guidance
from the nam and gfs show convection getting into far western
indiana between 21-00z while the ecmwf continues to delay it until
06z. we will likely be able to discern exact timing in the next 24
hours or so as models hone in on a consensus, however, i do think
that the best window for severe weather will be from 6 pm edt monday
to 2 am edt tuesday. the best potential for severe weather will
likely be west of us 31. this may end up being a high shear, low
cape setup on monday as instability is expected to diminish after
dark. despite a loss of instability after sunset (only 500-1000 j/kg
mucape), there does appear to be a decent setup given ~40 kts of
bulk shear and ~150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km srh. all hazards will be
possible if severe weather occurs monday evening into monday night,
including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. there is also
potential for heavy rain and efficient rainfall rates over 2"/hr.
with pwats near 1.50" (which is around the 99th percentile
climatology for april 27th), ample low level moisture, and forecast
sounding depicting a deep, warm cloud layer, flooding will be
possible late in the day on monday. total qpf across our forecast
area is expected to be between 0.50" to 1.50" by early tuesday
morning.

an unseasonably cool airmass will filter into the great lakes region
by the middle to end of next week as an upper level low develops
over the northeast. with dominant northerly flow, the climate
prediction center has 60-70% probabilities for cooler than
normal temperatures by the end of april into early may. highs
only in the 50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s will be
possible by the middle to end of next week. the growing season
has already begun for our forecast area as of mid-april. near
freezing temperatures at night may damage early season crops and
plants!

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 124 am edt sun apr 26 2026

mvfr stratus expanding across the area in cool ene flow. fuel-
alternate ceilings are likely at both terminals through the late
morning and may even persist as late as 17z. diurnal mixing will
bring a return to vfr by the afternoon though and will persist
through the end of the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1129 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions will exist to finish the weekend.

- warming trend monday as dry conditiosn persist, before showers and
thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

post sunset saw some expansion of low clouds, ducted under a very
deep low level inversion. area satellite date indicate the
northeasterly winds will maintain some degree of low stratus at the
terminals for several more hours, possibly into the morning across
metro detroit. high pressure will remain dominate across the great
lakes through sunday. a more notable region of low level dry air
circulating around the high will arrive from the east and eventually
erode the low cloud deck, likely in the morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 248 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

discussion...

notably cooler conditions entrenched locally within a persistent
area of stratus late this afternoon, as the resident thermal profile
now governed by prevailing northerly flow south of influential high
pressure. secondary period of cold air advection this evening as
flow veers and increases depth to northeast wind, with the thermal
flux augmented by onshore flow off the cold lake huron waters. this
process will also work to erode remaining saturation beneath the
inversion, affording a gradual clearing trend with time. lows sunday
morning arriving in the uppe 30s to lowe 40s most locatins.

deep layer stability held within prevailing low to mid level ridging
affords dry and seasonable conditions to finish the weekend period.
a standard moderation of the existing airmass occurs under a high
degree of insolation and increasing upper height field, but still
lacking in meaningful warm air advection. highs in the lower 60s in
most locations, except near the shorelines. lingering influence of
upper ridging ensures dry and stable conditions persist throughout
the daylight period monday. resident airmass continues to moderate
given the elevated mean thickness readings, but still capped by a
low level gradient that remains modified by a southeasterly
component. highs arriving above average - readings mid to upper 60s.

mid level wave noted on water vapor this afternoon off the coast of
california projected to eject northeast over the next 72 hours, with
the main height fall center reaching the great lakes by tuesday
morning. a narrow plume of deeper moisture will align parallel to
the inbound associated cold front, as the parent surface low tracks
toward lake superior. a sizable convective episode likely to emerge
upstream by monday evening within a favored corridor of higher
magnitude instability and supportive kinematics. influx of higher
quality moisture coincident with an increase in frontal forcing will
likely sustain this activity to some degree into lower michigan mon
night-tue morning. expectation for limited instability to exist as
consolidated activity funnels downstream and arrives locally within
the diurnal minimum precludes a greater concern for organized
convection at this stage. forecast will continue to call for a high
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms within the am hours.

broad mid level troughing south of a closed low meandering across
central canada will take control through the latter half of next
week. generally benign conditions favored within this pattern,
absent of meaningful areas of greater forced ascent and moisture
quality/depth. trending cooler with time wed to fri as mid level
heights gradually decline atop prevailing low level northwest flow.
below average temperatures expected to wrap up the month of april.

marine...

gradual establishment of high pressure maintains a slow weakening
trend in winds through the evening. high holds over the region
through early monday maintaining benign marine conditions.
southeasterly winds strength latter half of monday as the next low
lifts out of the central plains towards the northern great lakes.
while a 45-60kt llj develops over the central great lakes monday
night, accompanying warm advection should promote a stable overlake
thermal profile limiting mixing potential. currently local
probabilistic guidance is advertising a ~35% chance to reach 34kts.
arrival of showers and storms late night-early tuesday does offer
potential for profiles to turn more neutral, however this set-up
would warrant short-fused special marine warnings over gale
headlines. system`s cold front crosses daytime tuesday ending storm
chances as well as flipping winds to the northwest. rapidly
weakening pressure gradient on the backedge of the low keeps these
winds under 30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.