Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
332 am est mon dec 15 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure builds into the lower ohio valley this morning as
a surface trough persists over lake erie. the high pressure
will continue eastward off to the atlantic by tuesday. a weak
cold front may cross the region on wednesday before a strong low
pressure impacts the great lakes region on thursday and friday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
northwest flow of cold air aloft continues, with shallow
moisture in the 850-925 mb layer sufficient enough for a slight
increase in lake effect snow across parts of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania early this morning. radar reflectivity,
along with nearby observations, indicate light snow rates
likely less than a half inch per hour; even so, local cameras
show light snow is sticking to roadways, especially in the
cleveland metro and in northwest pennsylvania where traffic maps
indicate slower traffic speeds across area highways. in the
immediate near term, could see parts of eastern cuyahoga, lake,
geauga, and ashtabula getting an additional inch or two, though
model guidance is not sufficiently capturing this current
activity very well.

as steering flow tends to back, should see these lake effect snow
showers gradually shift eastward towards ashtabula and
northwest pennsylvania, before getting disrupted. may see an
additional inch or two by 12z in some parts of northwest
pennsylvania, though local radars are overshooting the activity
there, so it will be difficult to tell. regardless, the 12z end
time for the lake effect snow warnings for erie and crawford
counties will be maintained.

within the northwest flow aloft, a weak shortwave trough will
swing through, bringing a glancing bit of light snow to
northwest pennsylvania this afternoon, with an additional
dusting of snow. added low-level moisture and southwest flow in
the low-levels will allow for a single snow band to develop over
lake erie monday evening into early tuesday morning. this
should primarily affect western new york, though there are a few
models that bring it far enough south to briefly impact the
immediate lakeshores of mainly erie, pa. if it does, it would
bring a dusting to an inch (at most) of snow.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
warm air advection with southerly flow on the backside of a
departing high will allow for a gradual warming trend through
much of the week. this will be aided by a strong low pressure
system that will move into the northern great lakes by thursday.
temperatures are likely to rise to above normal temperatures
and into the upper 40s areawide thursday afternoon; both
conditions will occur for the first time since november 26,
which is a true testament to how cold it`s been the past
several weeks. couple related fun climate facts:
*assuming today is below average temperatures again, that will
be 19 consecutive days of below normal temperatures.
*all six of our climate sites are currently above normal
snowfall!

however, warmth this time of year usually comes with
consequences, and that will certainly be the case with this
upcoming system as it`s set to impact the region thursday and
thursday night. first, strong gusty winds are expected, both
with southwest flow in the warm sector on thursday, and with
west flow following the passage of a strong cold front thursday
night. confidence is fairly high in at least 35-40 mph gusts,
with the latest nbm suggesting a 20-40% chance of gusts greater
than 46 mph (criteria for a wind advisory), which is most
probable across much of the area with southwest flow on
thursday, and with west flow mainly along the lakeshore near
and east of cleveland thursday night.

additionally, a swath of rain is expected across the entire area
thursday into early thursday night, with the current pop
forecast peaking around 90% areawide. qpf is currently around
0.5", with localized amounts up to 1" possible. gusty winds and
dew points around 40 degrees will lead to a decent amount of
snowmelt as well. it`s unlikely this will be enough for river
flooding, but it will definitely be enough for some seriously
muddy yards.

as alluded to earlier, a strong cold front will bring a drastic
drop in temperature, with afternoon/evening highs in the upper
40s cooling down to the low 20s by the friday morning pre-dawn
hours. precipitation is likely to changeover to snow, though qpf
will be lacking at this point and a dusting of snow is expected
at best.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
behind the departing low, a cold shot of air swings through on
friday, with 850mb temperatures dropping down to as low as -14
c. accumulating lake effect snow is becoming more likely across
the primary snowbelt through the day friday. at this point, it
seems more like an advisory event rather than a warning event
given the expected shorter duration (12-18 hours). snow is
likely to sharply end friday evening/night as high pressure
builds in.

on the backside of the departing high, temperatures will warm
into the 40s on saturday before another cold front crosses the
area with rain expected saturday and saturday night (though
probably less than thursday`s system) before high pressure
begins building in on sunday/monday.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
lake effect snow showers will continue to bring brief vsby
restrictions (mainly mvfr with brief ifr) to cle through about
7z and yng through 7 or 8z before shifting northeast. eri may
see some brief restrictions in the vicinity of 7-9z this morning
from the lake effect, with lower confidence potential for a
brief snow shower or two around 12z too. otherwise, flurries at
cak will end by about 7z. a batch of snow associated with a
quick moving system could graze eri for a few hours late monday
morning or early afternoon with non-vfr vsby. outside of snow-
related restrictions, most sites are observing an mvfr ceiling
as we approach 5z. expect ceilings to slowly rise/scatter out
from the west overnight tonight into monday, though sites like
yng and eri will likely take a good portion of the day monday to
see ceilings lift to vfr.

west-southwest winds of 6-12kt continue overnight, increasing
to 10-18kt with gusts to 25kt out of the southwest on monday.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in lake effect snow showers in ne oh
and nw pa through monday night. non-vfr possible thursday as a low
pressure system brings rain into the region.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory remains in effect until 11 pm est this evening
from maumee bay to the islands and until 4 am tuesday from the
islands to ripley. a ridge builds from the west this morning and
then exits slowly e`ward from the lake erie region through tuesday.
sw`erly to w`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots early this morning
freshen to around 20 to 30 knots during this mid-morning through
afternoon as the ridge interacts with a low expected to move e`ward
across the northern great lakes and vicinity. during this evening,
the sw`erly to w`erly winds will begin to ease gradually and are
expected to be around 10 to 15 knots by daybreak tuesday. waves as
large as 5 to 10 feet are expected through this early evening,
especially east of the islands, before subsiding to 3 feet or less
by daybreak tuesday, when any occasional 4 footers will be confined
to the open waters of the eastern basin. on tuesday, s`erly to
sw`erly winds freshen to around 20 to 30 knots as the aforementioned
ridge interacts with a deepening low that should move generally
e`ward from southern mb and vicinity toward the northwestern great
lakes. waves build to as large as 4 to 9 feet, especially east of
the islands, and another small craft advisory will likely be needed.

as the ridge continues to exit e`ward tuesday night, a warm front
will sweep ne`ward across lake erie and be accompanied by sw`erly
winds around 20 to 32 knots. the potential for gale-force winds
still appears minimal. waves as large as 5 to 11 feet are expected,
especially east of the islands. on wednesday, sw`erly to w`erly
winds around 20 to 30 knots in the morning should begin to ease in
the afternoon and ease to around 5 to 15 knots by early evening as a
very weak cold front sweeps e`ward across the lake and a narrow
ridge then builds from the upper midwest. waves as large as 5 to 10
feet in the morning should subside to 5 feet or less by early
evening.

during wednesday, night, s`erly to sw`erly winds are expected to
freshen to around 20 to 30 knots as the ridge exits e`ward, a warm
front sweeps n`ward across lake erie, and a deepening low wobbles
e`ward in vicinity of the canada/north-central united states border.
waves are expected to rebuild to as large as 4 to 9 feet, with the
largest waves expected east of the islands based on our wind and
fetch forecast. another small craft advisory is probable. s`erly to
sw`erly winds around 25 to 40 knots are expected on thursday as the
potent low wobbles e`ward across the northern great lakes. a gale
warning will probably be needed. waves as large as 6 to 12 feet are
forecast. sw`erly winds around 25 to 40 knots veer to w`erly
thursday night as the potent low wobbles ne`ward toward west-central
quebec and allows a strong cold front to sweep e`ward across lake
erie. waves as large as 7 to 14 feet are forecast. behind the front,
a trough should linger over lake erie on friday as a ridge attempts
to build from the upper midwest. wsw`erly to wnw`erly winds should
ease gradually to around 10 to 15 knots and waves should subside
gradually to 5 feet or less by sunset friday evening. note: a seiche
is likely on thursday into friday and will probably prompt a low
water advisory for the western basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 7 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm est this evening for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 4 am est tuesday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...saunders
near term...saunders
short term...saunders
long term...saunders
aviation...sullivan
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
305 am est mon dec 15 2025

.key messages...

- below zero wind chills for the morning commute, coldest south
of us-30 with values of -15 or slightly colder.

- breezy and continued cold today. drifting snow in rural areas
may cause some minor travel issues.

- chances for rain return wednesday night into thursday, with
precipitation possibly ending as a rain/snow mix.

- large temperature swings friday through sunday, with the
coldest day being friday (highs in the 20s).


&&

.discussion...
issued at 255 am est mon dec 15 2025

lake effect clouds and flurries will continue to slowly
diminish/shift ne as the sfc and low level flow has become sw. far
sw parts of the area that have been clear since sunset currently
have air temps either side of zero degrees vs far ne parts of the
area in the mid teens. winds are considerably lower than this time
last night, but with such cold air temps even a 5 to 7 mph wind is
more than enough to send wind chills to -10 to as much as -15 degrees
wind speeds are still forecasted to increase somewhat towards 12z,
and moreso after sunrise as a briefly tightening pressure gradient
occurs with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph from mid morning into early
afternoon. this is likely to cause an increase in drifting snow
along with possibly some briefly reduced visibilities in rural
areas. opted to go patchy blowing snow all areas mid morning
into late afternoon. will defer any sps or increased messaging
to incoming day shift. winds will diminish tonight with mostly clear
skies allowing for overnight lows to drop into the teens (single
digit wind chills).

upper level flow becomes more zonal with waa continuing to
increase as 850 mb temps climb back above zero (roughly +4 to +8
initially) to bring the start of a thaw for the area as highs climb
above freezing tuesday. a weak trough will scoot by to the north
tuesday, briefly slowing the waa. yet another wave moves into the
pacific nw tuesday night and the quickly moves e, deepening as it
does. a more pronounced surge of warmer air and increased moisture
will commence for wed into thu. rain chances will increase (80-90%)
during the day thursday with highs reaching the mid 40s to possibly
near 50 in the south. while finer details will need to be sorted out,
the precip late thursday into thu evening may end as rain/snow mix
as 850 mb temps plummet (highs in the 20s for friday).

into the upcoming weekend, the process sort of restarts with a
flattening of upper level heights and at least a return to close to
normal, if not somewhat above normal temperatures. precip
chances appear limited at this point.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1222 am est mon dec 15 2025

lake effect stratus deck will finally erode in the next few
hours as southwesterly flow increases ahead of the next
shortwave. this wave is weak and will pass north of the area so
no precip or low clouds are expected. however, tightening
gradient will support sw wind gusts around 25 kts during the
day. this could lead to some patchy blowing and drifting snow
but confidence in vis reduction is low given marginal wind
speeds. elevated warm/moist air advection will also bring a fair
amount of middle and high clouds. some models suggest enough
low level moisture to support some 3-5 kft clouds today but most
guidance keeps the lower levels dry and will therefore hold
with just a sct mention.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
311 am est mon dec 15 2025

.key messages...

- light snow early to mid morning today brings a trace to 0.5 inches
of snow to areas north of i 69. best chance for seeing up to 1 inch
of snow is in the northern thumb region.

- a warmup is forecasted for the middle of the week with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s wednesday and 40s on thursday.

- a strong storm system is forecasted to impact the great lakes
region thursday and friday. much of the precipitation is expected to
fall in the form of rain on thursday, transitioning to snow in some
areas friday. strong winds will accompany this system as it moves
through the region.

&&

.discussion...

a plume of shallow, sub 3.5 kft agl thetae advected across portions
of southeast michigan earlier this evening resulting in large flake
flurries. the moisture, which likely had lake michigan origins was
pooled directly behind the 850-700mb high pressure center and was
the initial phase of air mass recovery and warming that will
dominate the weather through the beginning and middle of the week.
exit region to upper level speed max and attendant weak pacific
shortwave will push across the northern great lakes later this
morning as broad ridging and supergeostrophic flow expands eastward.
changing curvature to the jet impulse will provide for weak synoptic
lift and a wave of warm advection aloft. forecast soundings and the
forecasted vertical profile of uvv continues to suggest saturation
and lift will be very high in the column, upwards of 8.0 kft agl.
the tendency of the model data from 24 hours ago suggests that
midlevel moisture will becoming increasingly more shallow today as
drying will be actively occuring between 12.0 and 16.0 kft agl.
modeled qpf is less in the 12-18z time window and snow accumulations
will be light and inconsequential for most areas. the one exception
may be the thumb where less than one inch is possible.
interestingly, local time-lagged ensemble output for site port hope
suggests a near 90% probability for 0.5 inch of snow and approximate
40% chance for an inch. nbm 5.0 offers a 55% chance to measure with
an approximate 25% for 1 inch in the northern thumb. much lesser
probabilities exist to the south including in vicinity of port
huron. no significant changes were needed to the gridded pop
forecast.

relatively quiet weather is expected tuesday and into wednesday with
flow evolving more zonal and the height pattern less amplified that
what has recently been observed. models do show a big push to deeper
warm air advection arriving tuesday. not expecting much impact here
across southeast michigan as data suggests any light precipitation
potential will remain well north of the cwa across northeast
michigan likely requiring some elevation. highs tuesday are expected
to rise to the freezing mark. an inflection and corresponding jet
streak will support a trough structure through michigan wednesday.
deep moisture is significantly lacking but plan views of moisture on
isentropic surfaces suggests some low level moisture advecting out
of ky/tn northeastward, streamlining ahead of a weak cold front
early wednesday. forecast soundings showing an extremely shallow
depth to the moisture well below the dgz. could be looking at some
pockets of drizzle or freezing drizzle. the current forecast has
temperatures at 32/33f in the 10-13z wednesday timeframe.

models continue to support a deep midlevel trough and dynamic
shortwave trough pushing across central/northern great plains
thursday. high confidence exists at this vantage point that greatest
deformation forcing and cold conveyor processes with mid latitude
cyclone will impact portions of canada, well north of southeast
michigan. very high confidence in warm rain precipitation type as
model soundings support very warm thermal profile in the lowest 6.0
kft agl with maximum temperature at 850mb of a positive 5-6c. the
model trend now suggests that strong wind potential with the system
may be a little less than previously thought particularly over
southeast michigan (still breezy however). the main reason is that
the track of the cyclone could verify north of lake superior with a
much more diffuse surface trough structure extending southward
through the cwa. there have been suggestions the cold advection with
the front may come in two pieces with the true cold air and best
near surface lapse rates well removed to the west of the wind shift.
additionally, nocturnal timing of the cold front would have an
impact on downward momentum transfer. highs thursday are expected to
be in the middle 40s. with highs friday behind the cold front back
into the middle 20s.

&&

.marine...

we will reside on the northern fringe of an area of high pressure
centered over the ohio valley today. winds have turned to the
southwest overnight ahead of an approaching trough dropping into the
northern great lakes. the tightening of the gradient along wit h a
strong low level jet passing over the region will lead to winds
gusting to around 30 knots though the early part of the day. low
confidence scenerio regarding gale potential today but could see an
isolated gust to gale force or two but the window looks fairly
narrow late morning into the early afternoon for these higher gusts.
winds will remain elevated through the first half of the week as a
series of lows pass near the great lakes. small craft advisories are
in effect through the day to cover these higher winds and waves. the
next system will move in on tuesday which again is already
advertising southwesterly gusts to gales tuesday night. will hold
off on another gale watch at this time but one may be needed in the
next 24 hours if wind gusts remain unchanged.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1210 am est mon dec 15 2025

aviation...

mvfr and low vfr ceilings are starting to encroach on western
portions of southeast michigan early this morning with a light
westerly wind. these ceilings may reach the i-75 corridor and are
more likely affect ptk to mbs, though brief period of lower ceilings
reaching metro cannot completely be ruled out before increasing
southwest flow makes that less likely. light snow showers spread
across southeast michigan early to mid morning. a mix of vfr and
mvfr conditions should accompany this light snowfall with northern
terminals most likely to see the mvfr ceilings. trends have been
decreasing for light snowfall to reach metro terminals as well.
southwest winds increase late this morning through the afternoon
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots as clouds scatter out across the south.

for dtw... low confidence exists in lower ceilings reaching metro
through the early morning hours along with the potential for
snowfall for a couple hours surrounding 12z. any snowfall would be
very light and lead to minimal if any accumulation and any mvfr
ceiling should be relatively brief.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet today. medium this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......drk
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.