Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 031200
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 am est wed dec 3 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure over the ohio valley today will shift south this
evening. a strong cold front will sweep southeast across the area
early thursday morning followed by high pressure expanding east
across the area thursday through friday.

&&

.near term /through thursday night/...
southwesterly flow will increase today between high pressure
departing to the south and a cold front approaching from the north.
southwest winds gusts of 20-30 mph are possible this afternoon.
unfortunately a low stratus deck will tend to clear as mid and high
clouds increase so mostly cloudy conditions will prevail. this will
limit temperature recovery with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

a potent upper level trough will drop into the great lakes region
tonight and swing east through thursday. a cold front extending from
low pressure over hudson bay will push south across the area during
the second half of wednesday night with 850mb temperatures falling
to as low as -17c towards erie pa and closer to -10c towards
central ohio. a quick burst of snow is likely to accompany the
snow, with a light coating possible outside of the snowbelt and
a heavier band moving in off lake erie in the northeast.
southwesterly flow ahead of the front will allow for some
residence time over lake erie which will allow for a band to
develop over the lake. this band is expected to push south into
the snowbelt between 1-7 am and could have rates of an inch per
hour or more, especially in northern lake, ashtabula, and erie
county pa. with that said, the residence time of the band in any
given location is not expected to be more than an hour or two
so accumulations will tend be 1-3" across northern portions of
the primary snowbelt. this band will have snow squall
characteristics with low visibilities in lake, ashtabula, and
erie county pennsylvania. slick conditions are possible
elsewhere where there may be a light coating of snow, and if
clouds tend to clear then black ice could quickly develop.

lake effect snow showers may continue thursday afternoon or
evening in the snow belt as the flow backs but moisture depth
becomes increasingly shallow and limited to 5-6k. temperatures
peak in the 20s late morning with falling temperatures thursday
afternoon. conditions will feel rather cold with northwest winds
causing wind chills near 10 degrees.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
high pressure quickly builds in behind the front thursday afternoon.
skies are expected to clear out thursday night and support good
radiational cooling and low temperatures in the single digits
except lower teens along the lakeshore. high pressure and dry
conditions continue friday then shifting south saturday as a
shortwave trough moves through the flow aloft. a surface trough
looks to push onshore sometime saturday afternoon/evening and
could see scattered lake enhanced snow showers in ne ohio/nw
pennsylvania. deep moisture is only briefly available and
thermal profiles are not overly cold over lake erie so expecting
little if any accumulation.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
the persistent cold pattern continues into long term with a
broad longwave trough across the eastern two thirds of the
conus. daily highs are expected to be in the upper 20s to low
30s each day which is generally about 10 degrees below normal
for early december. precipitation looks to also be below normal
through monday as the active storm track looks to be well south
of the region. models show a clipper system may approach the
region next tuesday but confidence is low in timing or track of
any systems on day 7.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
widespread mvfr and ifr ceilings across the taf sites this
morning and confidence remains low on if ceilings are able to
disperse by this afternoon. given upstream observations and the
overall pattern, went with a pessimistic ceiling forecast,
keeping the entire area under ifr and/or low-end mvfr ceilings
for today. attention then turns towards this evening and
overnight as light snow overspreads the area ahead of a strong
cold front. vsbys will primarily be around 3sm, though can`t
rule out brief 2 to 2 1/2sm vsbys. a more focused band of snow
should accompany the cold front overnight, with the highest
confidence in impacts at cle/eri with low-end ifr vsbys.

winds are generally out of the southwest this morning, 7 to 10
knots. winds will gradually increase through today, 10 to 14
knots with occasional gusts of 20 to 22 knots. winds will
abruptly shift towards the northwest behind the cold front
overnight, 10 to 12 knots with gusts of 20 to 22 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings friday night through
saturday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions are expected into thursday as elevated
southwest winds of 20 to 30 knots arrive across lake erie today.
have issued a low water advisory for the western basin of lake erie
with this update, given increasing probabilities of water levels
falling below the critical mark for safe navigation of 5 inches
below low water datum, particularly later this afternoon and
evening. believe the most likely scenario is for water levels to
fall as low as 6 to 12 inches below low water datum by late this
afternoon and evening.

otherwise, marine conditions will improve by thursday night into
friday as high pressure builds across the area. southwest winds of
15 to 25 knots will develop friday afternoon and evening ahead of
the next front. winds will shift towards the west behind a cold
front on saturday, 15 to 25 knots, and a small craft advisory will
likely be needed for the central and eastern basin of lake erie.
quieter marine conditions will return by sunday into monday with
weak northerly flow of 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am est thursday for lez142-143.
low water advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez142>144-162>164.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est thursday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...10
near term...10
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 031035
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
535 am est wed dec 3 2025

.key messages...

- patchy light freezing fog early today, limited/local impacts.

- light snow this afternoon into early tonight, most areas <=1".

- widespread wind chill temperatures tonight fall to -5 to -10.

- chances for light snow mainly sunday (<=1" limited/local
impacts).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 336 am est wed dec 3 2025

southwest flow at the surface at 10 to 15 mph was prevailing
over the entire forecast area. the flow has been just strong
enough to prevent visibilities from dropping generally below 2
miles. the flow has been strong enough for a low stratus deck to
form at generally 300 to 700 feet. early morning temperatures
were in the mid teens to lower 20s. friezing drizzle has not
been reported since early last night; however, have kept patchy
freezing drizzle in the forecast for now given the entire cloud
layer below the dgz. any patchy freezing drizzle should end by
late morning.

more light snow will spread across the area today as a weak
short wave trof moves across the area. moisture is limited and
there is a large relatively dry sub-cloud layer that should help
limit snowfall amounts. snowfall amounts should be 1 inch or
less except for areas northwest of sbn where amounts may reach 2
inches. additional weak upper level trofs are expected to bring
a dusting of snow with local amounts up to 1 inch into early
next week.

the unseasonably cold pattern will continue into the middle of
this upcoming week with temperatures remaining almost
unequivocally below freezing. the last 5 days through december
1st averaged only 24.6 degrees (fwa) which was the coldest for
this period since 1976. given the huge gfs negative 500 height
anomaly (240 meters) during the middle of next week and given
persistence in this pattern, can find no reason to object to
temperatures staying below normal through the period. these cold
temperatures are also supported by the cpc 6-10 outlook. after
coordination, lowered blend temps next wednesday by 2 degrees
given the above reasoning. we have had the coldest end to nov/
early start to dec in 130 years.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 534 am est wed dec 3 2025

few changes made to the 12z tafs. patchy fog is still present
across the area, but it has been rather transient and
visibilities range from 5-8 miles. winds are gusty out of the
southwest this morning and will continue to be throughout the
day today, peaking with gusts as high as 20 to 25 kts this
afternoon and evening. a stratus deck will persist over the area
today with ifr ceilings through the day. a cold front will
sweep through the area this evening, bringing light snow and
reduced visibilities. snow arrives after 18z at ksbn and after
21z at kfwa. light accumulations around 1" are expected through
early thursday morning. snow will be done by 03-06z thursday and
winds switch to northwest behind the front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 031103
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
603 am est wed dec 3 2025

.key messages...

- temperatures will remain well below normal throughout the week.
the coldest conditions arrive thursday and friday mornings with wind
chill values bottoming out near or below zero.

- arctic front will bring scattered snow showers this afternoon and
evening, with accumulations from a dusting to under an inch.

&&

.aviation...

expansive area of stratus featuring a cloud base at ifr to lower
mvfr will persist throughout the daylight period. this exists as
prevailing southwest flow turns modestly gusty ahead of an
approaching arctic front. several hour window at any one location
for possible light snow shower development this evening along the
advancing cold front. post-frontal wind shift to northwesterly with
some lingering gustiness overnight. some degree of low level drying
with modest mixing will favor a trend toward vfr cloud as arctic air
funnels into the region during the early morning hours thursday.
possible late tonight.

for dtw...low stratus entrenched through the day. window for
brief snow shower development 23z-02z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 414 am est wed dec 3 2025

discussion...

persistent anomalous upper troughing over hudson bay will maintain
influence over the great lakes this forecast period, with prolonged
well below normal temperatures expected through the rest of the week
and into next week. a lobe of vorticity will swing around the upper
low tonight, sending a reinforcing shot of arctic air across the
region behind a strong cold front. ahead of the front, brisk
southwest flow will develop today as a llj passes overhead. the warm
air advection associated with this jet will remain elevated and the
resultant 15-25mph breeze will hold wind chills in the teens and
lower 20s today even as temperatures peak in the lower 30s.

the front will reach the saginaw valley in the afternoon and track
southeast through the evening hours. model guidance continues to be
very lean on qpf as there will be a lot of mid-level dry air to
overcome before deeper saturation occurs, and most of the inbound
sfc-700mb moisture will be pooling out ahead of the front where
ascent is disorganized and shallow. a few light pre-frontal snow
showers or flurries will be possible, then a quick round of trailing
post-frontal snow showers follows later this evening as a brief
intersection of steepening low-level lapse rates, boundary layer
moisture, and frontal forcing occurs. a few hi-res runs produce
around 30-50 j/kg of sbcape in the saginaw valley which would
support a brief heavier burst of snow as a higher end scenario, but
the overwhelming model signal is for a muted response with these
showers. a dusting to a half inch of accumulation will be the most
likely outcome through tonight. additional flurries may continue
overnight as the inbound cold air mass sends the dgz down into the
boundary layer with any lingering clouds capable of producing a few
flakes.

strong cold advection will keep the boundary layer well mixed
tonight with northwest wind of 10-15mph sending wind chill below
zero thursday morning as temps plummet into the teens. high pressure
spreading across the southern lakes will ease the wind and bring
some sunshine on thursday, but 925mb temps bottoming out near -14c
will maintain biting cold conditions with highs topping out near 20.
this is some 20 degrees below average highs and actually lower than
our average lows for early december. the degree of dry air will hold
any lake effect close to lake michigan and out of the local area.

the next lobe of arctic pv is slated to pivot across northern
ontario friday night, sending a cold front across the northern lakes
on saturday. ahead of this front, flow emerges once again out of the
southwest which will force the thermal trough away and offer a
warming trend from friday into saturday. a weak shortwave passing
across the great lakes friday night will bring a slight chance of
snow, but the deeper moisture and ascent with this wave will be
focused north of the local area. the trailing portion of the front
will pass through later this weekend keeping below normal temps
around well into next week. the upper pattern holds a stronger jet
across the se conus which leaves the great lakes in a relative lull
pattern void of stronger systems. ensemble guidance breaks down this
pattern and brings in a more active storm track during the middle of
next week.

marine...

high pressure will finish sliding to the east coast today with the
next system set to move through today. strong southwesterly winds
ahead of a cold front will have gusts reaching 25 to 30 knots into
the afternoon across central lake huron. a small craft advisory is
in effect for sagainw bay and around to harbor beach for these
winds. a strong low pressure system over hudson bay will send the
cold front through this afternoon into the evening with very cold
arctic air entering the region in the wake of the front. the front
will flip the winds around to the northwest while the arctic air
increases the winds gusts of 30 to 35 knots possible thursday
morning. most guidance still offers little support for wind gusts to
reach gales for any notable amount of time during this period so
will continue to hold off on any gale headlines and mention the
potential for a few gusts to gales instead.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est thursday
for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...low water advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.