Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
936
fxus61 kcle 191156
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
656 am est thu feb 19 2026

.what has changed...
expanded the dense fog advisory for northern ohio as visibility has
dropped to less than a quarter mile. strong thunderstorms are
possible this evening and tonight. gusty southwest winds are likely
during the day on friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dense fog advisory in effect for northern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania until 9am and could impact the morning commute.

2) above average temperatures and strong thunderstorms possible late
this evening into early friday morning. strong winds likely along
and behind the cold front friday afternoon.

3) seasonable temperatures return this weekend with snow showers
possible through monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dense fog has formed along a stationary boundary that has begun to
drift southward across northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.
colder air is moving south behind the boundary that has dropped
surface temperatures close to saturation and with winds becoming
light and variable, has allowed for fog to form. in the southern
portion of the cwa, patchy fog will be possible with an inversion in
place and the low levels being saturated from the precipitation
earlier today. fog should begin to dissipate mid morning today
though could impact the morning commute.

key message 2...
temperatures today will rise up into the upper 50s to low 60s
as southerly flow takes hold across the region with an
approaching low pressure system. this low will enter the great
lakes region late thursday evening, tracking northeasterly from
the mid-mississippi valley. the low will be occluding as it
enters the region, so the warm sector influence will be minimal
before the cold front sweeps through. though with that, there
will be some instability ahead of the frontal system. this will
mainly be confined to the western half of the cwa and lower as
the system progress eastward overnight. mucape will be around
300-500 j/kg with decent bulk shear supported by a llj of 35-45
knots will allow for an environment conducive of producing small
hail. spc has put the western portion of the cwa within a
marginal risk for severe weather, anchored by the hail threat.
in addition to the severe threat, there will be a decent amount
of qpf across the region. currently, the forecast has a quarter
to half inch of qpf from late thursday night through friday
afternoon. within thunderstorms, higher amounts of rainfall are
possible. the severe weather threat should diminish early
morning on friday.

after frontal passage, the upper level trough will still be working
through the great lakes throughout the day on friday. temperatures
will still be warm, up into the low to mid 50s with westerly flow
over the region, but there will be strong pressure gradient to go
along with it. a llj of 40-50 knots will support gusty winds across
the region friday afternoon. strongest winds, generally west of the
i-71 corridor, will be 20-25 mph sustained with gusts around 40 mph.
to the east, winds will be around 15-20 mph with gusts around 30
mph. winds will begin to diminish late friday evening as the upper
level low moves off to the northeast.

key message 3...
as the low pressure system moves off to the east, flow across
the region will shift to be out of the west to northwest
bringing more seasonable temperatures to the region. an upper
level trough will linger over the great lakes through the
weekend and into early next week reinforcing the flow.
temperatures will drop down into the low 40s on saturday before
dropping more to be in the low to mid 30s sunday into next week.
overnight lows will be in the 20s for that time period.
regardless, saturday should stay dry until a low pressure system
moves to the east up the eastern seaboard. precipitation will
return early sunday morning in the form on snow showers as
moisture is pulled across the great lakes region. snow
accumulation is likely, mainly in the eastern half of the cwa,
though light amounts possible to the west. accumulation is be
dependent on how the low develops and tracks off to the east.
the main player for snow accumulation will be with the lake
enhanced snow showers within the snow belt that could develop
with the wrap around moisture. it is likely that this will
continue through tuesday until ridging starts to build in and
precipitation wanes.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
fog and very low stratus blankets most of the airspace this
morning with a stationary front across the area. some showers
and storms in northern indiana will attempt to reach nw ohio and
the ktol area. any rain should disturb some of the lifr
conditions there. however, rain may struggle to reach any other
terminal. therefore, there is low confidence in the timing for
the lifr conditions lifting. there may be some mixing with
daybreak and some slight advancement in the front northward
toward the lake that may allow for conditions to get to ifr or
the lower reaches of mvfr. however, given the moist air mass and
some of the colder temperatures that have surged south, there
is potential for the lower clouds and low visibility to remain
for much of the day.

low pressure will enter from the west this evening and lift the
front north. the area will be in the warm sector of this system
and some thunderstorm activity is possible across the region.
more intense thunderstorms with better coverage are expected
southwest of the airspace but some showers with embedded thunder
may enter this evening into tonight and have some vcts mentions
at most of the terminals. this rain will be entering a saturated
atmosphere, so some mix of ifr/mvfr will be more easy to
achieve. behind the rain and embedded storms, the cold front
will move through the region, allowing for ceilings to lift
slightly and winds will shift to the south then southwest with
gusts of 20 to 25 kts expected on friday.

outlook...non-vfr continues on friday behind a cold front. non-
vfr should continue through the weekend with low ceilings
associated with a trough across the region.

&&

.marine...
colder air has returned over the lake with a stationary front
now south of the lake this morning. this colder air has taken
advantage of some added low level moisture, courtesy of the
initial warm frontal passage on wednesday, and dense fog has
developed on the lake. this fog will last through the morning
hours and a marine dense fog advisory has been issued through
noon. outside of the fog, the lake should stay relatively steady
state with light east flow and cooler temperatures over the lake
for much of the day.

for friday, a low pressure system will advance the stationary
front north again with some oomph in a 45 kt low level jet and
some warm advection once again to get temperatures into the 50s.
this will allow for ice to continue to weaken across the lake
and strong southwest winds around 25 to 30 kts will allow for
movement of the ice fields. any ice floes will be hazardous to
folks on lake erie and may block or close established shipping
channels. people are urged to stay off the lake erie.

the low pressure system will weaken over the region on saturday
and southwest flow will fall to around 10 to 15 kts. a strong
low pressure system will move up the east coast on sunday into
monday and enhance the pressure gradient of the trough over the
region, allowing for 15 to 20 kts of northwest flow on sunday
and monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...dense fog advisory until 11 am est this morning for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...dense fog advisory until 11 am est this morning for paz001>003.
marine...dense fog advisory until noon est today for lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
191
fxus63 kiwx 191149
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
649 am est thu feb 19 2026

.key messages...

- highs in the 60s today are within 5 degrees of record levels.

- thunderstorms will be possible today. a mostly marginal risk
for severe weather exists mainly during this afternoon and
into the evening with gusty winds, hail, and possibly a
tornado as the main threats.

- cooler air arrives friday with snow becoming more likely,
especially by sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 159 am est thu feb 19 2026

one last day of much above normal temperatures in this stretch
of warmth within a southwesterly flow aloft as a trough pushes
southeasterly into the region with highs today in the mid 50s to
mid 60s for southern portions of our cwa. a few convective
showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible this
morning especially over our southwestern and southern portions
of the cwa but the better chances for thunderstorms will be
later this afternoon into the evening hours as the better lift
associated with the trough pushes into the area. current 07z
regional radar imagery does have a couple of thunderstorms
developing over central il over vermilion and champaign
counties. these will slowly push to the northeast into our
southwestern counties over the next several hours this morning.
current dew points over the area are in the low 30s but we will
see an influx in moisture pushing northward into the area today
with dew points increasing into the mid 50s especially for our
southern tier of counties later this afternoon.

spc currently has a majority of our cwa under a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for their latest day 1 convective
outlook. there is also a fairly small sliver of slight risk in
place for our most southern tier of counties. the main threats
will be gusty outflow winds, small hail, and even a tornado or
two would be possible. the one limiting factor seems to be the
instability as surface based cape is very limited but the
mucape values are around 300-450 j/kg. bulk shear values will be
sufficient for some organization with 35 to 45 knot values. the
most likely time for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be
from about 3 pm to 9 pm est.

colder temperatures will begin to push into the region from the
northwest on friday and highs will only get into the low 40s to
low 50s for our far southeastern portion of the area. lows by
saturday morning will get back down into the low 30s to upper
20s. light rain showers mainly north of us-30 will begin to
change over to snow showers by friday evening. high temperatures
over the weekend will remain in the low to mid 30s with lows in
the upper 20s each morning. another trough will move through
late saturday through sunday and will bring another chance for
snow showers across the area. this will also bring another
reinforcing shot of colder air for monday with highs in the
lower 30s and low temperatures on monday and tuesday mornings
only in the low 20s to upper teens. of course, this will not
seem so bad compared to the very cold we had at the beginning of
the month. broad ridging across the central conus will begin to
push eastward into the region once again by tuesday and we will
see another warming trend into the middle of next week with
highs warming into the mid and upper 40s with a few locations
near 50 degrees on wednesday and thursday. chances for more
rainfall will increase for the end of next week with another
trough making residence over the great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 648 am est thu feb 19 2026

nose of elevated instability and steeper lapse rates has been
aiding in the development of thunderstorms, many produce copious
amounts of hail. luckily, the main storm passed north of kfwa
and are well se of ksbn. hi-res models captured this setup and
hrrr hints of redevelopment further north as the effective
boundary edges north, possibly giving ksbn a shot at some storms
later this morning. left overall tafs similar to 6z, but will
need to closely monitor. another challenge for mainly kfwa will
be a large area of ifr/lifr cigs across central indiana into
portions of ohio that may very well clip kfwa. again if this
does edge north will need to amend but impacts of the convection
may slow the northward progress for a bit.

confidence is low on additional convective potential late this
afternoon into this evening from impacts of any earlier
convection. trends suggest central in into central oh may be the
best area. kept shower mention at both locations for now, with
plenty of time to update in later forecasts.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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278
fxus63 kdtx 191157
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 am est thu feb 19 2026

.key messages...

- a dense fog advisory is in effect for all of se mi until noon.

- chance for rain showers today through friday morning. low chance
for an embedded thunderstorm. chance for snow showers friday
afternoon and evening.

- southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph will be possible friday afternoon
across portions of southeast michigan.

- light snow chances for southeast michigan late sunday and monday.

&&

.aviation...

dense fog is once again a dominating factor across the se mi
terminal corridor this morning. a diffuse frontal zone is stalled
over the area while supporting a moisture laden surface layer under
a sharp inversion in support of a widespread combination of lifr
ceiling and visibility. the setup will be persistent at least
through the morning while awaiting the next low pressure system
approaching from the central plains. a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms precedes the system from northern in and nw ohio and
is expected to reach the dtw corridor around 14z. predictability is
low on thunderstorm persistence, however at least scattered heavier
showers are likely to survive with northward extent. this is
followed by a mid afternoon to early evening pause in rain showers
until they ramp up again this evening. flight category grinds up
into mvfr for a few hours as well until trending back down to ifr
this evening. this occurs as the low pressure center moves toward
the south end of lake michigan while merging and intensifying the
frontal zone. the system sweeps through lower mi with a strong
occlusion friday morning.

for dtw... lifr in fog and low ceiling persist through the morning.
in addition, upstream thunderstorms over ne in/nw oh are being
monitored for northward progress toward dtw during the mid morning
period. rain showers continue until mid afternoon followed by a
break in coverage through sunset.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below 1/2sm
this morning.

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* high for ptype of all rain.

* low for thunderstorms this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 331 am est thu feb 19 2026

discussion...

shallow boundary layer moisture under a strong inversion will
maintain expansive fog over all of se mi through at least the late
morning hours, with visibilities ranging between 1/4 mi to 3/4 mi.
daytime heating in conjunction with a subtle increase in wind speeds
and rain chances will attempt to improve visibilities through the
day. the inversion weakens but holds under increasing mid-level
clouds, which will maintain more murky conditions with low stratus
and patchy mist. given pretty inefficient mechanisms to erode fog
through the morning, have opted to extend the dense fog advisory
through 12pm and will let near-term trends dictate the need for any
early cancellation or extension. daytime highs have also been
lowered for this forecast package. thinking is that dense fog
lifting to stratus with an east flow component will hamper
meaningful temperature increases today, holding highs in the low to
mid 40s. there is still a signal for the interior through flint and
portions of the tri-cities to push towards the upper 40s, where a
small window for afternoon clearing resides.

renewed rain shower chances are likely through the day today given
the early morning cyclogenesis across the central rockies which has
spawned a low pressure system, on track to travel into the great
lakes through friday. trailing shortwave feature will aid in
strengthening low pressure across lake huron down to a seasonably
strong surface pressure around 990mb with occlusion taking place
shortly thereafter as the low progresses across central to northern
lower michigan. rain chances will be possible throughout the day,
but two main windows for better coverage will be this morning into
the afternoon and again late tonight into friday morning.

rain showers have developed right along a strong theta-e gradient
across northern indiana as a shortwave feature arrived overhead.
progression of the low pressure system will transition this
gradient/stalled low-level frontal boundary into michigan this
morning and afternoon. this boundary will likely stall out over
southern michigan, but continued progression of low pressure will
enhance system relative isentropic ascent through the low and mid
levels, increasing chances and coverage of rain showers late tonight
and overnight. some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible
given weaker mucape values of 100-250 j/kg.

cyclonic flow will accelerate the colder air situated over the
northern plain into michigan, the coldest of which will be found on
the southern flank of the low pressure system, wrapping around lake
michigan before nosing into southern michigan. temperatures to drop
through the day friday, with steeper acceleration farther south
across the cwa where the cooler air initially resides. this colder
air will also be tied to the stronger llj which lines up across
southern michigan and through the ohio valley. the stronger momentum
reservoir brings gust potential of 40-45 mph across southern
michigan with dampened potential (~30-35 mph) closer to the tri-
cities and thumb as improved mixing depths bisect the stronger winds
aloft. wrap around moisture also bring snow shower chances friday
afternoon into the evening.

low pressure weakens and washes out over the weekend with additional
shortwaves expected to carve into the plains and midwest over the
weekend. this will reinforce colder air, the coldest of which
arrives sunday and monday with 850 mb temperatures dropping to -12c.
these temperatures will be cold enough to support lake effect snow
chances sunday and monday with added support from glancing
shortwaves. colder temperatures last through the early week period.

marine...

areas of locally dense marine fog will decrease as drier air
attempts to lift in from the southwest. a brief lull in dynamics
ensues today as competing systems interface between the eastern
plains and upper midwest. southeasterly winds hold for most of the
day with slower speeds over lake st. clair and western erie,
compared to the huron basin. an accelerated low-level jet (+40
knots) is expected to return for the northern half of lake huron on
friday as the eastern plains wave deepens and ejects across lower
michigan. medium confidence exists in an additional round of gusts
to gales for lhz361 and lhz362, therefore a gale watch remains in
effect for the northern half of lake huron. additionally, this
system will produce more rounds of rain showers, and perhaps some
light snow for the northern waterways friday evening/night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...dense fog advisory until noon est today for lhz363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

gale watch from late tonight through friday afternoon for lhz361-
362.

lake st clair...dense fog advisory until noon est today for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense fog advisory until noon est today for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.