Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
748
fxus61 kcle 261134
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
734 am edt sun apr 26 2026

.what has changed...
increased the sky cover and duration this morning into the early
afternoon hours due to persistent low stratus that will not be able
to mix out very easily.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure influences continue for today with northeasterly flow
off lake erie keeps the western lakeshore areas and inland on the
cool side.

2) a cold front comes through tuesday with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of it monday night, and a prolonged cool down with a cutoff
upper level low pressure system for the end of the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low level moisture continues to be trapped under a stout subsidence
inversion this morning, and without the ability to reach
temperatures required to mix out the inversion, this should prove to
be very difficult to erode. this is likely to happen after 16z
today, and possibly closer to 19z. the 925mb northeasterly flow
continues to advect moisture in to the region underneath this
inversion and shows the source of that moisture drying up in the 18z
time frame. cool weather expected to persist today, especially
downwind of the northeasterly fetch off chilly lake erie that will
make 60f a difficult reach for the western half of the lakeshore
cities, and inland a couple counties in northwest ohio. away from
this chilly source region, late sun should be enough te get
temperatures into the upper 60s in the mid to late afternoon hours.
the forecast is dry through monday, but surface winds turning
southerly brings back warmer conditions ahead of a cold front that
will bring renewed convection chances monday night.

key message 2...
mid/upper level ridge exits late monday into monday night, replaced
by southwest flow aloft. low level winds will be on the increase as
this frontal system approaches, and instability should be on the
increase as well. prefrontal surface trough monday night likely to
be the first wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms, then
followed by another wave of showers and isolate thunderstorms
with the cold front itself tuesday. back into the 50s for
several days in the wake of the cold front from midweek into
next weekend as an upper level low pressure system drops into
the great lakes and becomes cut off east of the cwa. low end
pops in the cold pool convection setup. possible frost/freeze
issues under this upper level low for the end of the week and
into the weekend.ason.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
mvfr/ifr ceilings are widespread across the area this morning with
pockets of lifr ceilings along the lakeshore. satellite
observations and forecast soundings indicate a deep layer of
moisture in the low levels, with mid- level subsidence aloft. as
a result, ifr/mvfr ceilings will persist until around 18z before
scattering out.

outlook...periods of showers with non-vfr conditions are expected
monday night through thursday morning. scattered thunderstorms
are expected monday night through wednesday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
high pressure to our north will track eastward today and exit
the region monday. waves of 1-3 feet are expected with
northeasterly winds around 10 to 15 knots. patchy fog is
expected over lake erie through late this morning as colder and
fairly moist air crosses the lake.

monday night through wednesday morning low pressure will track
northeastward from the upper ms valley to hudson bay. winds will
shift from easterly/southeasterly at 15 to 25 knots to
southerly/southwesterly at 10 to 20 knots. waves 3 to 6 feet are
expected monday night into tuesday morning, then subside
gradually to 3 feet or less the rest of tuesday through
wednesday morning. a small craft advisory may be required.

a trough will linger over lake erie wednesday before high
pressure builds across the north-central united states
wednesday night through thursday. westerly to northwesterly
winds 5 to 15 knots and waves 1-3 feet are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
101
fxus63 kiwx 261040
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt sun apr 26 2026

.key messages...

- becoming warm with highs around 75 to near 80 monday.

- strong to severe storms likely late monday into monday night.

- locally heavy rainfall monday night is favorable for isolated
areal flooding and river flooding.

- cooler and mainly dry wednesday through saturday with highs
in the mid 50s to around 60.

- frost is likely most morning from thursday into sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 322 am edt sun apr 26 2026

low level clouds were spreading west from far southeast lower
michigan and northwest ohio into northern indiana and far
southwest lower michigan. the intrusion of these clouds will
halt the development of radiational fog that was trying to
develop where skies where skies were clear. morning cloud cover
will limit insolation and subsequently limit high temperatures
to the 60s over northwest ohio and far southern lower michigan.

temperatures will become very warm monday as an upper level ridge
builds north of the ohio river. in addition to the warm temperatures,
precipitable water values will soar well above 1.0 inch with
gfs values exceeding 1.5" along the pwat axis that will translate
east across the forecast area late monday into early monday night.
in addition to the flood and possibly flash flood potential, favorable
bufkit bulk shear profiles will bring a risk for damaging winds and
isolated tornados west of highway 31.

lingering showers will end early wednesday followed by dry conditions
with highs mostly in the 50s the rest of the week. given the likelihood
of the growing season becoming more advanced, frost is likely to
be impactful as temperatures across the locally colder spots to dip
well down into the 30s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 640 am edt sun apr 26 2026

mvfr stratus deck will dissipate around 15-16z as diurnal mixing
ramps up. vfr expected to persist the rest of the period with
light easterly flow.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
494
fxus63 kdtx 260954
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
554 am edt sun apr 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions will exist today.

- warming trend tomorrow with dry conditions during the day.

- showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow night into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

a mid-level ridge cresting over the region maintains dry and stable
conditions through the day. surface high pressure over the northern
great lakes will continue to direct dry air in from the east,
allowing remaining stratus to clear out this morning to favor vfr.
model data and satellite imagery support potential for stratus to
linger downwind of lake erie which may affect the southern dtw
airspace until another push of dry air arrives early afternoon. wind
veers from ne this morning to e midday, then ese by late afternoon,
aob 10 kt.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings below 5000 ft through 17z today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 346 am edt sun apr 26 2026

discussion...

high degree of stability expected today as surface high pressure and
mid/upper ridge move across the central great lakes. the surface
high pressure sliding across ontario will veer the early morning
northeast winds towards the east this afternoon. this will usher in
more dry lower level air that should gradually break up the lingering
low clouds across much of southeast michigan this morning. the east
winds will work against the therm ridge and limit a greater warm air
advection response this afternoon, but some airmass moderation should
occur with the anticipation of more sunshine. expecting highs today
for inland areas to be in the low to mid 60s. lakeshore zones will be
notably cooler given that east flow.

dry and stable conditions expected to hold through tomorrow. lower
level flow turns south to southeast downstream of a midwest trough
and surface low moving across iowa tomorrow afternoon. this will
allow for better warm air advection into michigan and bring daytime
high temperatures mostly in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s with a few
mid 70s possible towards the southern border. there will be
increasing coverage of clouds through the afternoon downstream of
the low pressure system.

aforementioned low pressure system will progress northeastward and
move over lake superior by early tuesday morning. this system will
drive a cold front through michigan monday night with corridor of
deeper moisture and higher thetae ahead of it. severe weather likely
will develop upstream across the mid mississippi valley into il and
portions of in. frontal forcing with available moisture will likely
sustain some convective activity into southeast michigan late monday
night into tuesday. given the arrival at the diurnal minimum, models
solution are limited with the amount of instability available when
activity arrives locally. as of now, still anticipating a high
chance for showers and thunderstorms monday night into tuesday, but
probability for severe weather remains low. latest guidance has
trended down slightly for the qpf with most of the area sitting in
the 0.25-0.50" range for the overnight period supported by pwats
that increase to 1.25 inches or more.

upper level troughing carrying a couple embedded shortwaves will
swing across the great lakes during the mid to late week period. at
the surface will be a high pressure that creeps out of south central
canada and into the great lakes that will draw in drier air into the
region with a persistent north-northwest flow. thus, the overall
pattern only offers low chances (<20%) of precipitation during this
period with mostly dry conditions expected. this northerly flow will
also lead to a stretch of cooler temperatures that will see daily
high temperatures in the 50s and a couple nights late in the week
down to around the mid 30s.

marine...

high pressure holds over the region through early monday maintaining
benign marine conditions. southeasterly winds strength latter half
of monday as the next low lifts out of the central plains towards
the northern great lakes. while a 45-60kt llj develops over the
central great lakes monday night, accompanying warm advection should
promote a stable overlake thermal profile limiting mixing potential.
currently local probabilistic guidance is advertising a ~30% chance
to reach 34kts. arrival of showers and storms late night-early
tuesday does offer potential for profiles to turn more neutral,
however this set-up would warrant short-fused special marine
warnings over gale headlines. system`s cold front crosses daytime
tuesday ending storm chances as well as flipping winds to the
northwest. rapidly weakening pressure gradient on the backedge of
the low keeps these winds under 30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.