Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
749
fxus61 kcle 031829
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
229 pm edt sun may 3 2026

.what has changed...
increasing pops in coverage tonight in mid level isentropic lift
that will become more pronounced over the eastern half of the cwa,
but in coverage only.

&&

.key messages...
1) prefrontal pva brings a chance for storms monday ahead of
the cold front that drops into the cwa from the northwest on
tuesday.

2) dominant upper level troughing reclaims its hold on the great lakes
and brings temperatures back below normal for the end of the week
and into the weekend.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
pva aloft in the 500mb flow will utilize the mlcape available
monday for sparking convection across the cwa. this will occur as
higher dewpoints advect in from the west and low level jet enters
the region with a 50kt streak 00z tuesday. for now, the day 2
convective outlook has the western half of the cwa in the marginal
risk category for the severe potential. as the cold front approaches
the region from the northwest, waves of low pressure will develop
along the cold front. this will result in a reduced forward speed of
the boundary as it moves into the cwa and a longer residence time
heading into midweek. with multiple rounds of convection now
expected in association with this frontal boundary, tuesday has a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for much of the cwa with a now
consistent influx of low level moisture in southwesterly flow. for
the duration of the event into late tuesday, should easily see 1-2
inches of rain for portions of the cwa, especially where the first
day convection occurs as this storm total will take into account the
monday into monday night activity.

key message 2...
system finally exits late tuesday night with more cold air advection
dominating the picture and a broad upper level trough returning to
the great lakes. temperatures from monday will drop 15-20f area wide
back to below normal values, the trend of the region since the last
week of april. the trailing upper level trough axis gives another
chance for showers in the cold pool thursday, and then again with
more pva aloft for early friday. drying for the first part of the
weekend. will possibly be looking at more frost/freeze headlines for
the thursday night time frame with lows in the 30s. temperatures
slowly moderate back into the 60s primarily for saturday.



&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
it will be a mostly sunny/clear and vfr afternoon. a period of
mid-level clouds and perhaps a few showers is expected overnight
tonight along and ahead of a warm front that will lift across
the area early monday. expanded the vcsh mention to much of
northeast oh and northwest pa, though confidence in any impacts
to a given terminal remains low...brief non-vfr vsby is possible
with a few showers. otherwise, conditions remain vfr into
monday with potential for scattered showers/storms to move in
from the southwest after 18z monday. began including vcsh at cle
who has a 30 hour taf, other sites will need evaluated as the
shower/thunder potential moves into their taf period.

southwest winds of 10-18kt with gusts to 25kt continues this
afternoon. winds shift more southerly and will try losing their
gustiness this evening. a 40-45kt low-level jet (at 1500-2000
feet) moves west-east across the area between ~5-13z monday,
introducing low-level wind shear potential. expanded the wind
shear mention to all tafs except for eri, where the low-level
jet will be a bit more marginal and arrive close to sunrise.
wind shear quickly subsides monday morning as mixing improves
after sunrise and as the low-level jet subsides/exits east.
southwest wind gusts to 25kt are likely monday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms monday afternoon/night followed by increasing
coverage of precipitation tuesday afternoon and night and
again on thursday.

&&

.marine...
west-southwest winds of 10-20kt are ongoing this afternoon, with
wind gusts of 25-30kt across the nearshore waters. winds will
briefly lull early this evening, before sustained winds increase
to 15-25kt across the entire lake overnight tonight as a
stronger low-level jet and tighter pressure gradient move across
the lake. waves of 1-3/2-4 feet in the nearshore waters and 4-7
feet in the open waters are expected through early monday. small
craft advisories will be out for all nearshore waters through 8
am monday to account for the brisk southwest winds with the full
afternoon forecast update. winds decrease to under 20kt during
the day monday, though increase a bit again monday night into
early tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. another round
of small craft advisories may be needed. a cold front moves
south across the lake on tuesday, with winds whipping around to
the north behind it and subsiding into wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lez142>145-
147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
540
fxus63 kiwx 031826
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
226 pm edt sun may 3 2026

.key messages...

- brief warmup and turning breezy today into monday.

- there is a chance (20-40%) for scattered showers this
afternoon.

- chances for scattered showers and storms (30-50%) increase
mid afternoon monday into monday night. a few storms could
become strong to severe (wind/hail).

- turing cooler with periods of rain tuesday into tuesday night.

- cool midweek through next weekend with occasional chances for
rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 121 pm edt sun may 3 2026

a weak shortwave moving southeastward in conjunction with a cold
front allows an area of showers to swing eastward through the area
this afternoon. given the dry airmass, rap time-sections indicate a
fairly dry airmass in the low levels of the atmosphere and this
probably keeps the majority of the morning rain as just virga.
better low level moisture arrives during the afternoon and this
helps to increase confidence that at least a couple of hours of rain
will be possible. temperatures don`t fall as far tonight,despite dew
points in the upper 20s and low 30s, because the temperature profile
is much warmer (finally above freezing) than we had it both weekend
mornings (below freezing).

we`ll have been on a warming trend for temperatures despite today`s
cold front allowing our highs in the 50s on saturday to reach the
70s on monday. dew points also trend higher with the passage of the
theta-e plume this evening and another push of it into the area
monday. even still, models restrict sfc dew points to the 50s and
850 mb dew points to the single digits. the normally moist biased
nam is indicating that closer to the arriving cold front, there
could be some better moisture (closer to 60f in sfc dew points and
around 10c in 850 mb dew points, but boy is it discontinuous). there
is still the warm front-like feature that tries to push into the
area later in the afternoon that may help bring better moisture to
the area as well. overall, the forcing appears rather diffuse and
weak, but the nam tries to bring some better large scale ascent in
by the evening (which may be convectively enhanced). there are
pockets of effective shear between 30 and 40 kts to work with, which
may be on the strong side of shear to get dry microbursts out of the
inverted-v profiles that show up on the hrrr soundings. again, the
normally moist-biased nam has much more moisture in those profiles.
this would at least point to some sort of wind threat. it also
appears that the mid level lapse rates mix out overhead lessening a
hail threat, but it`s not completely removed given shear and
instability. tornado is certainly a lesser threat, but could exist
with enough lift along and south of the approaching warm front later
in the day (south of us-24 area). the low level jet remains south of
us-24 during the overnight and the nam indicates there are areas of
low level moisture flux continuing to move through which would point
to maybe a flood threat lingering into the overnight.

the cold front is slow to move southeastward tuesday and is
continuing to be flagged by the nbm (which uses old data by about 6
to 18 hrs) as well as an ensemble of medium range guidance as
allowing 1 in or more rainfall during the 24 hours prior to 6 to 12z
tuesday night mainly south of us-24. there are signs that weak lows
may try to move along the slow moving front during this time. wpc
has an ero of mrgl for this period. the front is out of the area
later tuesday night as slight height rises exist in the mid levels
and high pressure noses in. a cooler trend exists with the highs
with 50s becoming more common tuesday through thursday.

height falls commence wednesday night and into thursday as the base
of the upper trough swings through, but we are much drier then and
model qpf output is rather meager. this also fits with the upper
cooler/drying northwest flow and there not being a theta-e plume to
work with. better warming and dew points arrive for friday although
we`re still in that upper nw flow. a weaker wave moves through in
the trough, but this would seem to provide a slightly better
opportunity. highs trend warmer from friday into the weekend with a
return to highs in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 126 pm edt sun may 3 2026

vfr conditions will persist through the remainder of this taf
period. a few light scattered showers will move through this
afternoon from 18z through 21z sun. gusty southwesterly winds
have developed as expected with gusts up to around 30 kts. a
period of slight decoupling overnight after 12z will allow
winds to relax temporarily but after 15z mon gusts increase
diurnally to around 20 to 25 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
916
fxus63 kdtx 031721
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
121 pm edt sun may 3 2026

.key messages...

- windy and warmer today.

- mild and breezy monday. a chance of thunderstorms late monday and
monday night.

- showers expected tuesday. much colder temperatures tuesday through
the end of the week.

&&

.aviation...

elevated moisture advection maintains a healthy degree of mid-cloud
across the region however this is expected to remain above 5kft.
gusty sw winds already have developed late this morning with gusts
near or in excess of 30kts possible through the daylight hours
today. a few showers are possible this afternoon tied to the
aforementioned advection however drier low levels keeps intensities
ranging from sprinkles to a brief light shower. winds gradually
weaken overnight before breezy conditions reemerge monday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt sun may 3 2026

discussion...

a broad warm air advection pattern will expand across lower mi later
this morning into tonight, enhanced by strengthening low to mid
level southwest flow. the result will be increasing mid and high
level clouds. a more notable mid level theta e ridge will expand
into se mi late this afternoon and persist into tonight. this
moisture will be accompanied by fairly steep 700-500mb lapse rates
of 7.5 to 8 c/km. despite this, model soundings suggest the warm
700mb temps contributing to these lapse rates will form a weak cap
on potential elevated convection. this and dry air below 800mb will
limit shower chances to less than 30 percent late this afternoon
through tonight. a 925mb wind max of 35 to 40 knots will move across
srn mi early this morning. daytime boundary layer growth into this
wind field will result in gusty winds today, with 30 to 35 knots in
the mixed layer supportive of 30 to 40 mph wind gusts during peak
daytime heating. wind gusts may get close to advisory criteria
(gusts to 45 mph) across the saginaw valley and thumb were model
soundings indicate 40-45knots across the top of the mixed layer. the
southwest winds will drive 925mb temps up toward +11c this
afternoon, which combined with the mixing will push afternoon highs
well into the 60s.

a slow moving cold front will be driven across the upper
midwest/western great monday in advance of a broad long wave trough
expanding into the northern plains/nrn minnesota. sustained
southwest flow ahead of this front will support persistent warm air
advection into se mi monday, pushing daytime highs into the 70s.
while still breezy, low level wind fields and mixing depths are
forecast to be a little lower in comparison to today, likely capping
peak wind gusts around 30 mph.

modest boundary layer destabilization across the ohio valley monday
is forecast to advect into the southern portions of the forecast
area toward evening, mainly along/south of the i-94 corridor. mid
level capping and limited forcing suggests low convective chances.
while boundary layer moisture may be limited, any deep convection
that is able to initiate will be capable of localized strong wind
gusts and hail in light of the steep mid level lapse rates and dry
air in the mid levels. mid level height falls will expand across the
northern great lakes mon night as the long wave trough builds
eastward. this will force the sfc cold front into se mi. weak
elevated instability and deep layer moisture is forecast to advect
into se mi monday night along/ahead of the cold front. this will
provide a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. while the
better convective potential looks to precede the stronger shear
profiles, steep mid level lapse rates may still support isolated
strong storms into the night.

a more organized deep layer frontogenetical forcing along the cold
front is forecast by tuesday across se mi resulting from amplification
of the long wave trough, increased baroclinicity and corresponding
upper jet dyanmics. latest probabilistic guidance places the
highest rain chances generally east of a bad axe to howell line
tuesday. given the quasi stationary nature of the front, there is at
least a low chance for some persistent rain to push total rainfall
amounts up to or over an inch. shallow post frontal cold air will
bring temps back down below seasonal averages by midweek, with
daytime highs likely in the 50s and nighttime lows in the 30s through
the end of the work week.

marine...

a warm front will pass through today which will sustain southwest
with with increasing wind speeds through the morning and afternoon
hours. locally stronger winds will be found within the saginaw bay
through central lake huron given the favorable fetch. localized gusts
around 30 knots will be possible through the bay, with other
nearshore locations seeing gust potential on the order of 20 to 25
knots. small craft advisories remain in effect.

wind speeds diminish late tonight into tomorrow morning, but return
with similar intensity during daylight hours which will likely
result in another round of small craft advisories. isolated to
scattered showers will be possible today and tomorrow along with a
very low chance for a rumble of thunder.

hydrology...

showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the
region monday night and persist into the day tuesday along a slow
moving cold front. latest model guidance and probabilistic guidance
suggests high probabilities for total rainfall between a quarter inch
and three quarters inch. there is low to moderate confidence that
rainfall totals will reach an inch generally across metro
detroit/ann arbor and points south, with low confidence totals will
exceed an inch and a half. while initially convective, the rain is
forecast to transition toward a more steady light to moderate rain
on tuesday. this will keep hourly rainfall rates generally light.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sc
marine.......am
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.