Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
822 pm edt sun may 10 2026

.what has changed...
expanded the frost advisory for tonight which now includes ashtabula,
trumbull, and mahoning counties in ohio and inland erie and
crawford counties in pennsylvania. confidence is increasing in
the need for a wider spread frost and freeze headlines for
tuesday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) below average temperatures are expected through tuesday morning
as cold high pressure builds into the region. there will be
frost/freeze potential monday and tuesday mornings.

2) unsettled weather returns tuesday night as low pressure moves
into the region bringing showers and possible thunderstorms.
moderate rainfall is expected as well on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dewpoints in northeast ohio dropped into the upper 20s this
afternoon. winds are expected to decrease to near calm as the
ridge expands this evening and we should see temperatures fall
quickly through the first half of the night. while dewpoints are
expected to creep back up overnight, lowered min temperatures,
especially for inland north central and northeast ohio. some
mixing may develop late as weak troughing develops over lake
erie which could be a limiting factor for greater coverage of
frost. however, added patchy frost to the forecast for most
inland areas east of i-71 and expanded the frost advisory to
inland ashtabula, trumbull, and mahoning counties where
temperatures could reach the mid 30s.

previous discussion...
temperatures will continue to be below seasonal averages over the
next few days as colder high pressure builds into the region from
the northwest. overnight lows will drop down into the lower 40s for
much of ohio and down into the mid 30s for areas in northwestern
pennsylvania. winds will become calmer overnight and with some
clearing will allow for frost formation in pennsylvania tonight into
monday morning. a frost advisory has been issued for that timeframe
for inland erie county and crawford county, pennsylvania. tomorrow
evening the surface high will build to be nearly overhead of the
southern great lakes and will support efficient radiational cooling
across the region. winds will be calm with clear skies and
temperatures will drop down into the mid to low 30s across
northeastern ohio and down into the low 30s in northwestern
pennsylvania. additional frost advisory headlines will be needed for
areas east of i-71 with freeze warning possible for the eastern tier
of ohio counties and northwestern pennsylvania. temperatures will
begin to moderate tuesday as the high pressure builds off to the
east and southwesterly flow moves across the region.

key message 2...
low pressure will move into the upper great lakes tuesday evening
and bring precipitation back to the area late tuesday night into
wednesday. the majority of the precipitation will enter the region
around tuesday night and exit to the east midday wednesday. given
the timeframe the precipitation begins, generally expecting showers
with isolated thunderstorms. some moderate rain is expected
overnight with the showers and will need to continue to monitor how
this progresses and the extent of any impacts. there may be some
lingering showers across eastern ohio and western pennsylvania
wednesday afternoon, but expected to be light. rain showers will end
across the region late wednesday night as high pressure builds in
from the west.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions are expected to persist through the taf period.
winds will drop off to 5 knots or less by 03z and be calm at
times overnight. a weak trough will develop over lake erie late
tonight with light south to southwesterly winds developing
towards dawn. on monday the trough will push south of lake erie
bringing broken clouds of 4-8k and a wind shift to the north/
northwest at 5-10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms late
tuesday through wednesday. non-vfr may linger across the
eastern half of the area on thursday in low ceilings and rain
showers. non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms on friday.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet marine conditions are expected through tuesday
with relatively light winds of less than 15 knots anticipated. slightly
stronger south to southwest flow of 15 to 20 knots will develop
tuesday night into wednesday ahead of a cold front, with winds
shifting towards the west to northwest behind the front
wednesday night, 15 to 20 knots. will continue to monitor for
small craft potential during this period. northwest winds will
gradually diminish to less than 15 knots by late thursday as
high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 8 am edt monday for
ohz014-023-033.
pa...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 8 am edt monday for
paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10/23
aviation...10
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
617 pm edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- frost most possible tuesday morning north of the toll road.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and
evening. the threat for severe weather is low.

- warm to end the work week, but rain will also be possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sun may 10 2026

dry and cooler air enters the area from the north as surface high
pressure noses southward. with 850 mb temperatures falling down
around 0c by 12z, the question of frost enters the mind. with an
upper low over in eastern canada, a shortwave rounds the base of its
trough through the great lakes tonight. this brings mid level cloud
cover that probably helps to keep the area warmer for a good amount
of tonight and calls into question the severity of the frost for the
area. at this point, it looks like the best chance for any frost
tonight is in outlying areas in our michigan counties: berrien to
hillsdale. will cover this with an sps for tonight. with the
low pressure system arriving tuesday, it is possible that cloud
cover and an increased pressure gradient affects frost chances
on monday night. the pressure gradient really increases between
6z and 12z so if the temperature can get to 38 or 39 degrees
early enough, maybe we can get some frost started before that
arrives early monday morning. otherwise, the best chance for
frost would be north of the toll road and probably closer to
i-69, away from the developing pressure gradient.

the aforementioned arrival of a low pressure system brings chances
for rain as early as tuesday morning. it is interesting to see dew
points in the upper 20s and 30s tuesday morning, but we rise to
widespread 40s by the early afternoon. it begs the question about
how much rain will be after to fall with the initial moistening of
the column. finally, the warm front pushes into our southwest and
the wet-biased nam has got 500 j/kg of mucape with it, whereas the
ecmwf is rather devoid of instability. this would seem to lessen the
chance for severe weather with its arrival. there is a moisture axis
that swings through with pwats around and just above 1inch as well
as sfc dew points approaching 60f and 850 mb dew points approaching
10c. if this materializes, there could be some locally heavy rain,
but the reduced convective element may take away some of the rain`s
oomph leaving it as more nuisance than anything.

we`ll be in the comma head of the low pressure system for wednesday,
but a bit of a lake shadow eats away at our better low level lapse
rates. still, towards the area of us-30 and i-69, it is possible
that we see some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts during the afternoon.
otherwise, expect dry weather from later wednesday through thursday
as surface high pressure pushes through.

for friday, a pacific trough comes in, but is slowly weakening in
what looks like an upper low. as it approaches the great lakes, it
deepens back into an upper low by saturday night with some rain
around later friday to friday night as a warm front pushes through.
a lot better instability gets into the area for saturday with dew
points reaching well into the 60s ahead of a cold front and we have
some shear to work with, which points to a potential severe weather
event. we could also see some 80 degree high temperatures on
saturday. subsidence follows for sunday behind the low allowing a
return to dry weather.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 611 pm edt sun may 10 2026

with high pressure in place across the area vfr conditions will
prevail for both taf sites through the period. northerly winds
less than 10 kts expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
624 pm edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- frost advisory is in effect tonight from midnight to 7am.

- frost is likely again monday night.

- the next chance of rain arrives late tuesday into tuesday night.

- above normal temperatures possible next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions prevail through the taf period as conditions remain
dry and stable within the lowest levels. intervals of higher based
cloud within the 7 to 10k ft layer will drift through at times
tonight and monday as mid level energy funnels across the region.
lingering gustiness to northwest wind this evening with subside with
loss of daytime heating, yielding modest winds still from the
northwest through the night. winds becoming north-northwest
overnight into monday as high pressure builds across the northern
great lakes. advancement of the high to the east will bring a wind
shift toward the east monday evening, before becoming light and
variable.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 213 pm edt sun may 10 2026

discussion...

strong surface anticyclone and deep midlevel subsidence will build
out of manitoba southeastward into the great lakes region through
early tuesday. a very dry low level airmass, pwats at less than a
1/3rd of an inch, combined with deep midlevel subsidence will ensure
relatively quiet weather the remainder of today and monday.
southeast michigan will still reside within the main composite axis
of broad upper level troughing. this supports intervals and periods
of high cloudiness as individual shortwave maxima pivot and work
through the trough.

one such very low amplitude feature will work out of
northeast wisconsin through the saginaw bay region early this
evening. midlevel cooling between 6.0 and 12.0 kft agl may good
enough for a rouge high based shower but the potential impact or
coverage is too low to include. moisture progs in/around great lakes
is always a difficult endeavor, but model solutions (hires nam and
gem) suggest a variable coverage of thin high cloud for tonight.
with subzero 850mb temperatures, the forecast will call for lows in
the 30s for most areas outside of the urban heat island. despite a
gradient wind that may remain light and sustained out of the north
tonight, cannot discount microclimate cooling potential and will
issue a frost advisory tonight for areas north of i 94 including
washtenaw county. another cold, below normal night is anticipated
monday night with the center of high pressure building overhead.
more frost or freeze headlines may be needed.

model data continues to support categorical precipitation chances,
greater than 75%, late tuesday afternoon and tuesday night. a
notable aspect of the tuesday system are the low dewpoints (40s)
holding and likely wetbulbing at least through the 00-06z timeframe
wednesday. latest forecast soundings support higher static stability
holding in the lowest 3.0 kft agl with largely moist adiabatic lapse
rates between 900-500mb. the potential will exist for thunder, but
no strong or severe weather is anticipated. a more compact jet
streak structure and tight curvature of the upper level jet streaks
overhead tuesday suggests some moving parts yet on the timing and
duration of the best forcing. there is at least good support for a
period of stronger low level frontogenesis with the warm advection
surge. confidence is low on the expected qpf amounts.

pattern change then looks to happen friday and into the beginning of
next weekend as high amplitude ridge structure advances through
central north america. still some uncertainty with how progressive
the ridge becomes which may cause flow to become more zonal locally.
the current forecast suggests daytime highs climbing into the 70s.

marine...

high pressure continues to drift over the region through monday
maintaining lighter winds. next low is set to sweep across the great
lakes late tuesday bringing widespread showers and a few chances for
thunderstorms mainly over the southern great lakes. in advance of
the system, southerly winds strengthen though with ongoing warm
advection, thermal stability over the waters is expected to cap peak
gusts around 30kts. moderate nnw winds follow wednesday as cooler
air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing gradient
should keep winds under 30kts. high pressure briefly follows to
close out the work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 7 am edt monday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.