Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
198
fxus61 kcle 242015
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
415 pm edt fri apr 24 2026

.what has changed...
increased pops for this afternoon and tonight. also adjusted high
temperatures down near lake erie on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will give way to
widespread showers overnight. a few of the stronger thunderstorms in
nw ohio this afternoon could produce wind gusts to 50 or 60 mph.

2) cooler air arrives behind a cold front for the weekend. locations
closer to lake erie will be below normal.

3) the next chance of precipitation will accompany a front monday
night into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

scattered thunderstorms developed this afternoon in northwest
ohio and have continued northeast towards sandusky and central
lake erie. this area is focused along an area of low level
theta-e advection and is not expected to be severe, with brief
heavy rain and lightning the main concerns. we will be
monitoring the evolution of thunderstorms moving out of indiana
this evening for slightly more organized convective threat. mid-
level shortwave energy is expected to move from northern
illinois towards central lower michigan and provide some
increase in lift while a cold front wraps in from the west this
evening. instability is expected to be marginal with 500 j/kg of
cape. while shear will be on the uptick in nw ohio, effective
shear will remain at 25 knots or less and the severe weather
threat is expected to remain isolated with a few wind gusts of
50-60 knots possible in nw ohio. the main time frame for any
stronger thunderstorms will be in the 4-8 pm time frame.

beyond that, a swath of rain is expected to move across the area
overnight with generally a quarter to a half inch of rain and a
chance of thunderstorms. rain will tend to taper off from west to
east between about 4 am in the west to 11 am in nw pennsylvania.

key message 2...

high temperatures for saturday will occur early in the morning for
some locations with temperatures falling into the 50s behind the
front. temperatures at 850mb will tend to be about 7 c cooler
than today. northern areas will be influenced by breezy flow off
lake erie and remain in the 50s through the day with mostly
cloudy skies. temperatures for inland areas will do a little
better with some locations climbing back into the 60s in the
afternoon. skies will tend to clear for sunday with seasonable
temperatures.


key message 3...

a warm front lifts back north on monday as the upper level ridge
axis shifts towards new england. a trough will lift out of the rocky
mountains towards the upper midwest monday night into tuesday.
strong low pressure will track northeast across lake superior with
showers and a chance of thunderstorms moving east across the area
monday night into tuesday ahead of a cold front. another quarter to
a half inch of rain is expected with this system but the late
night/morning timing will be less favorable for strong
thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions will slowly deteriorate as a cold front
approaches from the west this evening and overnight. showers and
storms associated with this boundary should begin to impact
western terminals between 18 and 20z and spread east. better
chances of thunderstorms can be expected for ktol, kfdy, kmfd,
and kcle. will maintain vcts for kcak, kyng, and keri
overnight. restricted visibility values are expected in storms.
cold air advection behind the front will lower ceiling and and
vsbys after the windshift and frontal passage generally after
06z.

variable winds can be expected at keri and kcle due to the lake
breeze this afternoon. other sites will see southwest winds
this afternoon. gusty winds up to 20 knots can be expected
around showers and isolated showers. behind the boundary winds
will remain 5-10 knots but shift to northwesterly.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
possible this afternoon through saturday morning and again on
monday.

&&

.marine...
east to northeast winds have increased to 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots this afternoon. also, walnut creek waves have
increased up to 4 feet this afternoon. a cold front will push east
this evening into the overnight hour, shifting winds northerly with
speeds of 5-10 knots. an associated surface inverted trough will
park over western pennsylvania and create a relatively tight
pressure gradient on saturday. as a result, northerly winds will
increase across the central and eastern basin saturday and saturday
night with winds between 15 to 20 knots and waves approaching 5
feet. we will monitor and may need a small craft advisory saturday
night. winds are expected to subside on sunday. a strong low
pressure system that moves through the western great lakes region
for the start of next week. winds look to increase to 15-20 knots
for a period of time late monday into tuesday, which may need a
small craft advisory.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...fz
marine...fz

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
836
fxus63 kiwx 241722
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
122 pm edt fri apr 24 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening.
isolated strong to severe storms may produce damaging winds
between 3-9 pm edt.

- dry over the weekend and slightly cooler with highs in the 60s.

- the next chance for severe weather comes monday evening into
monday night. all hazards will be possible, including damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 117 pm edt fri apr 24 2026

visible satellite and radar imagery shows clusters of developing
showers and a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms across
northwest and central indiana ahead of an incoming cold front.
these showers are expected to continue to lift into our area and
may intensify with better daytime heating. breezy southerly
winds and low level waa have boosted temperatures up into the
mid 70s so far this afternoon. dewpoints have also surged into
the upper 50s. destabilization is expected to occur within the
next few hours, especially as storms progress eastward into an
environment with better low level convergence and up to 500-1000
j/kg of sbcape. spc does have a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather today along and east of in-15. steep low
level lapse rates of 8-9 c/km should support at least an
isolated damaging wind threat today, despite persistent cloud
cover and a lack of organized low level wind shear. the best
chances for isolated clusters of strong to severe storms will be
across far northeast indiana and into northwest ohio between
3-9 pm edt. pwats of 1.25"-1.5" also support potential for heavy
rain in any storms, although storm motions should be fast
enough to prevent a flooding threat this afternoon and evening.

winds diminish and precipitation subsides shortly after sunset
tonight, giving way to a calm and dry weekend ahead as high pressure
builds back in across the great lakes. slightly cooler with highs in
the 60s both days with caa from prevailing northerly winds.

confidence is starting to increase that there could be a better,
more widespread opportunity for severe weather late monday afternoon
through monday night. a series of strong 500 mb shortwaves will
eject out of the colorado rockies late sunday, with a low pressure
system developing across the central plains and deepening as it
lifts into the upper midwest by monday evening. the system`s
attendant cold front will spark severe weather potential west of our
area during the day monday across the mid mississippi river valley.
there is some potential that this convection (likely an
organized qlcs or clusters of storms) is able to sustain itself
into our forecast area by monday evening into monday night. it
appears convection could get into far western indiana between
22z to 02z. i do want to note that the gfs and ecmwf have slight
differences in timing of the cold front, which could make all
the difference on if severe weather occurs. the gfs has a
slightly faster setup than the ecmwf, which lends itself to a
more favorable environment to tap into. uncertainties remain on
exact timing and whether or not the environment here will be
favorable, but spc does have at least the southwest portion of
our forecast area highlighted in their day 4 severe outlook.
whether or not our area gets severe weather will be highly
dependent on if the system`s attendant warm front lifts far
enough north on monday and if the cold front is able to get here
before instability wanes and we lose our daytime heating.
despite a loss of instability after sunset (only 500-1000 j/kg
mucape), there does appear to be a decent setup given ~40 kts of
bulk shear and ~150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km srh. all hazards will be
possible if severe weather occurs monday evening into monday
night, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 121 pm edt fri apr 24 2026

a moisture axis, initially disconnected with instability entered the
area this morning. convergence allows for better overlap between the
convergence and moisture during the afternoon and this allows for
the chance for showers and thunderstorms. the hrrr indicates some
showers/storms could be around sbn around initiation around 18z and
the shower/storm threat continues to 00 to 02z. showers and storms
may start an hour or two later around fwa and may last until
midnight. the instability axis shifts eastward so that the severe
threat vacates sbn after a few hours, but fwa`s threat lasts until
around sunset. some 2 to 4sm vis restrictions and mvfr cig
restrictions will be possible from the storms moving through. spc`s
marginal severe weather risk starts right on sbn and extends
eastward mainly east of us-31 for damaging winds. while drier air
moves into the mid levels, low levels develop an inversion, and if
there`s any lingering moisture from developing rain, there could be
some stratus or fog that develops. there`s a large distribution in
solutions for the overnight period though so low confidence
exists in the previous hazard occurring, especially for sbn.

given low level lapse rates, gusty winds to 20 to 25 kts will be
possible up until thunderstorm approach. expect trajectories to be
out of the southwest until after the pre-frontal boundary moves
through. winds, then, veer more northwesterly thereafter.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
122
fxus63 kdtx 242003
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
403 pm edt fri apr 24 2026

.key messages...

- a band of thunderstorms with broken coverage moves west to east
across the remainder of se mi late this afternoon. the strongest
storms are capable of isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph and
localized heavy downpours.

- dry weather and cooler but seasonable temperatures move in for the
weekend.

- showers and thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...

the ongoing band of thunderstorms crossing lower mi is the first
phase of convection on schedule to affect the area this afternoon
and this evening. it increased coverage and intensity on the leading
edge of inbound short wave height falls and within an uncapped
boundary layer with building instability. mid afternoon hourly
mesoanalysis indicates sbcape running up near 2000 j/kg with entry
level bulk shear around 25 kts. model soundings also continue to
indicate narrow cape density and high moisture content within an
href mean pw axis reaching up to around 1.5 inches. the cape/shear
combination is proving capable of supporting some linear
organization within multicell clusters that present a precip loaded
downburst damaging wind threat through late afternoon. some
weakening is likely as activity reaches the mid thumb region to lake
huron on the leading edge of the instability axis.

the second phase of convection comes in with lower intensity in
reduced instability between the leading line and cold front.
coverage is boosted by the cold front and smaller scale mid level
wave hinted at in satellite imagery. this activity ends up sub
severe while adding rainfall to event totals until the front sweeps
activity eastward around midnight.

the weekend starts out dry but cloudy as the surface low center
reaches the east end of lake erie by morning and has a trough
extending back west into lower mi. this keeps the central great
lakes mired in low clouds augmented by the great lakes that are
trapped in and near the trough and under a strengthening mid level
ridge. the associated subsidence inversion is maintained saturday
night while the low level wind becomes more neutral and less
supportive of cloud maintenance, however direction veering easterly
keeps se mi on the cloud edge to the south with lower predictability
into sunday. confidence in dry weather through the weekend is much
higher as model agreement is solid on maintenance of the 500 mb
ridge over the central great lakes. the larger scale surfaced high
pressure is also shown with good model agreement centered on
northern ontario and quebec. the ne to e wind trajectory favors
temperatures around late april normals in the mid 50s to mid 60s
with onshore wind direction bringing the usual much cooler
conditions near lake huron.

dry weather holds to start the week on monday while the next low
pressure system organizes across the plains states. it sends a band
of showers and thunderstorms into lower mi monday night as
considerable system deepening occurs in the lee of the rockies. low
level jet driven moisture transport consists of a gulf modified
continental air mass, but the size and strength of the low pressure
system makes efficient use of the moisture/instability. the trailing
cold front then sweeps showers eastward by tuesday morning and
leaves dry weather and near normal temperatures for mid week.

&&

.marine...

cold front crosses the central great lakes this evening generating a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms. an isolated storm could be
strong to severe with wind gusts over 34kts being the main hazard.
secondary low center on the southern portion of the front crosses
the southern lower mi tonight setting up modest northeasterly flow
in its wake (peak winds up near 20kts). high pressure then expands
over the great lakes over the course of saturday before eventually
departing first part of the day monday. light winds gradually take
hold as this high becomes established as well as bringing drier
weather for the weekend.

&&

.hydrology...

a band of thunderstorms leads a cold front across se mi this
afternoon and evening. two phases of activity combine for basin
average rainfall amounts in the range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches,
although localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible for any
areas that see repeated rounds of storms. ponding of water on
roadways and minor rises on streams and rivers will be the main
impacts followed by localized minor flooding in urban and low lying
areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 227 pm edt fri apr 24 2026

aviation...

mid-afternoon conditions have returned to a vfr state, but this will
be short-lived. convection is moving in from the west, well ahead of
a cold front that is currently draped across western lower michigan.
lower clouds fill in through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening, and eventually lower to mvfr with the arrival of drenching
rainfall. pushed back the timing of thunder in the tafs to account
for latest radar trends and storm speeds. storm mode will
predominantly be multicell clusters with some line segments. most of
the stronger storms should clear the terminals before 01z, but
models indicate potential for elevated instability to perpetuate
into the overnight hours, keeping low-end thunder potential in-
place. as of now, confidence is too low to extend ts beyond 01z,
thus favoring a decreasing trend in showers. additionally, once
rainfall comes to an end, fog should develop/replace the exiting
precipitation as a reduction to visibility. given residual moisture
within the cooler airmass, a low stratus signal is also present into
saturday morning. for the taf period, winds will be breezy at times
this afternoon and variable with southerly composition, then veering
nne overnight with decreasing speeds.

for dtw...greatest thunderstorm potential across dtw is currently
between 21z and 23z as the broken line of strong thunderstorms move
through. wind gusts of 50 mph possible with locally heavy downpours.
ifr conditions develop overnight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for thunderstorms this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......kdk
hydrology....bt
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.