Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
623 am est tue nov 3 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) near record warmth expected for portions of northwest ohio
today.

2) rain will spread west to east across the area wednesday into
wednesday night bringing a quarter to a half inch of precipitation.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
southerly flow will continue across the region today as we
remain between high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast and
elongated low pressure extending from the upper midwest to the
southern plains. warm advection will be ongoing with 925mb
temperatures peaking approximately 5c warmer than yesterday and
breezy south winds gusting to 20-25 mph in north central and
northwest ohio. aloft, 500mb heights of 582dm are above 90th
percentiles values based on iln sounding climatology for
november 3rd. the anomalously warm airmass for early november
combined with clearing skies will result in high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s. toledo has the best chance of tying or
breaking a record which is 77 degrees from 1987. records for
other northern ohio sites can be found in the climate portion of
the afd below. following the warm day, lows tonight will be
mild ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

key message 2...
a deep upper level trough extending to the southern
plains will pivot northeast towards the great lakes region on
wednesday. favorable moisture transport will be focused towards ohio
and forcing will be provided by upper level jet dynamics as the
trough becomes negatively tilted aloft. showers are expected to move
into northwest ohio wednesday morning then expand eastward through
wednesday night. potential for thunderstorms is low but not zero.
did not include in the forecast with this cycle but can not rule out
an isolated thunderstorm or two on wednesday. south to southeast
winds will be elevated on wednesday but the boundary layer is
expected to be stable enough to not bring down the stronger winds
noted with a 40-50 knot low level jet overhead in showers. in
general, most of the area is forecast to receive between a quarter
and a half inch of rain. we will need to monitor convection across
the lower mississippi and tennessee valleys where moisture
transport northward could be disrupted by thunderstorm activity
but overall feel the high pops are justified ahead of the
occluded front.

temperatures will still be warm on wednesday ahead of the front.
thursday is forecast to generally be dry as this trough lifts north
across michigan and phases with another trough dropping south out of
canada. a well pronounced dry-slot aloft will result in dry
conditions and clearing skies. yet another trough is expected to
move out of the four corners region into the ohio valley where it
will merge with the original trough. while model spread increases
heading into the weekend, models generally support a cold front
moving south friday bringing a chance of showers, especially
downwind of lake erie. temperatures over the weekend will be near
normal values in the mid 50s but will feel cool compared to the warm
pattern we have been in.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
a few lingering mvfr ceilings are being observed near the
lakeshore of nwpa but should continue to lift to vfr over the
next hour. after that, widespread vfr conditions are expected
through this period. breezy south-southwest winds of 5-12 knots
will occasionally gust up to 20-25 knots especially for
terminals along and west of i-71. near the end of this period, a
cold front will approach the western terminals, possibly
resulting in showers early wednesday morning. given a bit of
timing uncertainty, opted to handle any shower potential with
vcsh.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
southerly winds will continue on lake erie through wednesday,
becoming more southwesterly on thursday. winds may reach or exceed
20 knots on wednesday as a low level jet moves overhead and will
consider if a small craft advisory is needed. otherwise winds
eventually shift to northwest behind a cold front on friday, then
increase to 10-20 knots friday night through saturday. right now
conditions over the weekend look to be choppy but just below small
craft criteria. this will be something to monitor over the coming
days.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...04
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 am est tue nov 3 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and dry today with record-challenging warmth. southerly
wind gusts of 25 mph to perhaps 35 mph.

- rain arrives from west to east late tonight. breezy with
lingering showers through wednesday.

- not as warm to end the week with lake enhanced showers at
times.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 249 am est tue nov 3 2026

a well defined upper-level trough is lifting north-northeast through
kansas early this morning. closer to home, low stratus and patchy
drizzle continues to lift north through michigan in response to this
lifting cyclone. stout warm air advection has brought steadily
rising temperatures on this shift with an increasing number of 60-
degree readings (normal high today is only 55). that said, morning
temperatures will be a nice spring board for afternoon highs that
will challenge the day`s records: 76 degrees in 2003 and 1987 (2003
record was only at fort wayne). rather cloudy immediately upstream,
but clearing is noted across the ohio river. this could be enough
later today to truly challenge the record. cloud cover will also
dictate afternoon mixing of the low-level jet. forecast soundings
depict a narrow window after 1pm where guidance attempts to mix down
35 mph gusts. overall today, breezy, decreasing clouds (especially
along and east of the i-69 corridor) and dry.

rain slowly arrives from west to east tuesday night according to
available near-term models (rip href, nam et. al.). northwest ohio
could very well be dry until after daybreak wednesday as low
pressure becomes stacked beneath the parent upper-low, slowing the
cold front`s arrival. breezy conditions persist into wednesday
morning as the low-level jet remains amplified over northwest ohio.
a dry slot from this low slowly works its way east permitting some
afternoon dry hours. cooler air behind this system seeps in
wednesday night through thursday along with lake-enhanced showers.
highs in the 60s wednesday and thursday give way to highs in the 50s
friday through the weekend. this whole system exits later saturday
ending the lake-enhanced shower chance.

beyond the weekend, subtle northwest flow results in temperatures
fairly close to normal and opportunities for 20% pops at times as
weak disturbances ripple through the flow. subtle ridging is noted
over the southern and central us, which, if building into the
midwest could later induce a more zonal flow locally. however, the
core global models are teasing chilly canadian high pressure after
veteran`s day.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 615 am est tue nov 3 2026

low pressure over eastern kansas lifts northeast through the taf
period. vfr ceilings have settled in and upstream observations
indicate this will continue through a majority of the taf
period as we reside within the warm sector. since the 06z tafs,
i did remove the llws mention in the near-term due to the
situation becoming rather marginal, and an absence of any
g-airmet products. however, llws may come into play around the
06z window as the low-level jet strengthens. flow is rather
unidirectional, however, and so this gets an honorable mention
for the time being.

at the end of the taf period, rain arrives from west to east
along an incoming cold front. ceilings deteriorate further
beyond the front. medium confidence in -shra start time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
444 am est tue nov 3 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy today with near record high temperatures and gusty
winds up to 30 mph.

- mild conditions continue wednesday with light rain likely.

&&

.aviation...

drier air is working north out of indiana early this morning
demarcated by ceilings rising back to lower vfr in upstream obs.
these ceiling improvements lift south to north over the first half of
the morning with the expectation all sites will be at or above 5kft
by late morning. breezy southwesterly winds develop during the
daytime hours as gusts peak around 25kts with a few potentially
closer to 30kts. vfr conditions hold for tonight before lower cloud
and rain arrive wednesday morning.

for dtw... ceilings above 5kft have been observed over northern in
into far southern mi early this morning. lower cloud quickly erodes
in the first few hours of the new forecast period with vfr
conditions maintained through tonight. mvfr to ifr cloud return
tuesday morning tied to the arrival of showers which will
periodically cross the terminal for much of the day.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings 5000 ft or less early this morning low by late
morning-early afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 302 am est tue nov 3 2026

discussion...

a period of high magnitude warmth by early november standards set to
emerge over the next 24 hours. this development driven by increasing
depth of southerly flow within an increasing upper level height
field. this occurs in response to the establishment and gradual
northeast ejection of a deep closed low now over the central plains.
early day low cloud will give way to a mix of sun and clouds today
as the existing warm front surges north of the area and associated
warm air advection strengthens with time. a modestly mixed profile
will certainly support peak afternoon readings well into the 70s -
nearing record territory of mid 70s most locations. some gustiness
to the prevailing south flow expected, peaking in excess of 30 mph
at times. very mild conditions to prevail into tonight, as readings
struggle to dip much below 60 degrees - a solid 20 degrees above
average.

aforementioned closed mid level system forecast to slowly lift from
the central plains to near lake superior thru thursday. greater
northward moisture transport occurs within the belt of deeper
southerly flow immediately downstream and out ahead of the attendant
cold front, with the northern extent reaching southeast michigan by
early wednesday. while better moisture quality may tend to hold
across the ohio valley, this process will bring an increasing
probability for light shower development throughout the daylight
period. mild resident thermal profile still entrenched with shower
potential simply taking the edge off slightly relative to the peak
noted tuesday. highs upper 60s to near 70 degrees, with gusty
southerly conditions again reaching 30 mph at times. cold front
moves through wednesday night, offering another window for some
frontally forced pockets of showers to develop.

area settles within the dry slot for thursday as the system slowly
occludes to the northwest. modest cold air advection initially with
low level flow still out of the southwest, leaving temperatures
still above average during the day. a strong mid level wave of polar
origin will dig southward into the existing height fall center as
the entire trough axis pivots thru the area thursday night into
friday. an uptick in shower production plausible with a model signal
for some degree of fgen to emerge as the secondary frontal zone sags
southeast beneath the parent upper trough. notably cooler and
potentially unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend period, as
the existing upper trough exits while a trailing wave anchors the
next shot for meaningful rain toward the end of the weekend.

marine...

broad low pressure consolidates over the western great lakes tonight
before occluding on wednesday. this system directs moderate
southerly wind across the region today into tomorrow, though the
inbound warm air will result in increasing low-level stability over
the lakes that will limit the higher magnitude wind from mixing
down. gusts to 25 kt are expected over the open waters of lake
huron, while the nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt
given shorter fetch. similar conditions persist into wednesday with
a slight uptick in wind speed while wind direction backs to
southeast. this will likely necessitate a small craft advisory along
the thumb shoreline as wave heights build over 4 feet. a cold front
brings high coverage of light showers across the area late in the
day and into wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind
the front. the weakening low pressure slowly meanders across the
western great lakes on thursday before a stronger cold front tracks
southward across the region on friday. this brings moderate north
and northeast winds that shift northwest by saturday, as well as
additional light rainfall.

climate...

record high max temperatures for november 3rd:

detroit: 76 degrees (set in 2015)
flint: 79 degrees (set in 2015)
saginaw: 74 degrees (set in 2015)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...mr
marine.......tf
climate......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.