Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
753
fxus61 kcle 091931
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
331 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected near
the lakeshore this evening into tonight followed by more
widespread rain friday. severe weather is not expected.

2) much above normal temperatures sunday through most of next week
with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface low pressure centered near hudson bay this afternoon
will continue eastward across northern quebec this evening. this
will push a trailing cold front slowly across lake erie, but the
front will stall near the southern shore tonight in response to
another mid/upper shortwave progressing through the central
great lakes and inducing a weak surface wave on the front.

regional radar loops this afternoon show a band of scattered
showers and some embedded weak convection along the front from
sw ontario to far nw ohio and northern indiana. this activity
will gradually sink across lake erie this evening, but the
latest href cams are trending toward a less inland push to the
showers, keeping them confined to close to the lakeshore. this
makes sense given the stalling boundary tonight, so tweaked pops
to keep the rain chances over the northern counties. most of
this will just be light nuisance rain showers, but afternoon
mesoanalysis shows 500 j/kg of sbcape in north central and ne
ohio, with 100-250 j/kg of mlcape. this weak instability coupled
with 25-30 knots of effective shear could support a few embedded
convective cells with a few lightning strikes and gusty winds
over 40 knots. overall low impact with no severe weather
expected.

the showers will gradually shift out over lake erie
and north of the region late tonight as the front lifts slightly
north in response to the secondary wave developing upstream.
since the mid/upper jet support associated with this wave will
be farther south compared to this evening`s initial push of the
front, expect coverage of rainfall to be much more widespread
friday as the weak low crosses the southern great lakes and
pushes the frontal boundary slowly southward. the right entrance
region of a 90-100 knot h3 jet streak crossing lower michigan
will generate a swath of fairly steady rain across illinois,
indiana, and lower michigan friday morning that will slowly sink
across the region during the day. in terms of timing, expect
rain to reach a sandusky to findlay line by 14z and an erie, pa
to mansfield line by 18z. the swath of rain showers will then
continue sinking slowly southward the rest of the afternoon and
evening. abundant cloud cover and rain will keep instability
very low friday, so while some embedded convection is possible
in the southern counties friday afternoon, no severe weather is
expected. any convection would just produce locally heavier
rain. total qpf friday should average 0.35 inches or less except
locally higher where any convection occurs, so no flooding is
expected.

key message 2...
the frontal boundary will briefly be forced south to the ohio
river valley saturday behind the low as canadian high pressure
at the surface builds down across the great lakes. this will
bring cooler temperatures, especially near the lakeshore, as
low-level winds turn ne. the change will be short lived though
as the front already lifts back northward sunday in response to
a strong mid/upper low progressing into the california/oregon
coasts forcing strong amplification of mid/upper ridging over
the eastern conus. this will set up a broad southwesterly flow
pattern through most of next week leading to very warm and
increasingly humid conditions. temperatures will climb into the
low to upper 70s sunday and monday and upper 70s to low 80s
tuesday and wednesday. the next cold front continues to trend
slower, so temperatures will likely stay well into the 70s
through thursday.

in addition to this being an unseasonably warm pattern, it will
also be an active pattern as the aforementioned closed low
slowly progresses into the plains by midweek and evolves into a
broad mid/upper trough. this will eject weak shortwaves across
the mississippi and ohio valleys in the broad sw flow, and given
the increasing low-level moisture and instability, periods of
showers and thunderstorms will result. there will not be much in
the way of forcing until the main piece of the remnant trough
approaches toward the end of the week, so expect convection to
be scattered and peak during the afternoon/evening diurnal
cycles until perhaps a more organized round toward wednesday or
thursday depending on how the trough and associated cold front
evolve. again, the trend has been slower.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
a cold front brings isolated to scattered showers after 21z
today, lifts back north briefly, then settles back into the area
for friday and higher chances for rain after 12z friday. vfr
conditions turn to ifr/mvfr in lowering ceilings west of cle-mfd
line and visibilities dropping in precipitation as well. wind
gusts through 23z at 20-30kts cease tonight with another period
of llws possible after 05z. gusts resume at 20-30kts after 13z
friday out of the southwest.

outlook...non-vfr expected in periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms through friday evening and again sunday night
through monday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will drop down into the southern great lakes this
evening, and will push completely through the region friday.
offshore winds will become onshore behind the cold front as wave
heights increase to the 1-3ft range through saturday. winds become
offshore once again through sunday night, and then increase out of
the southwest to the 15-25kts range monday through tuesday. during
that time frame, wave heights will increase rapidly with distance
from shore and will be in the 3-5ft range in the open water
zones.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
753
fxus63 kiwx 091814
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
214 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

.key messages...

- cooler temperatures arrive friday w/ increased chances for measurable
rainfall across much of the area. there is a 40-60 percent
probability of at least 0.5 inch of rainfall from late tonight
through friday, mainly north of us-6.

- trending warmer and generally drier through the weekend.

- daily chances for showers and thunderstorms can be expected next
week as numerous disturbances pass through the area. an
occasional risk for strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

minimal changes made to the inherited forecast for this cycle w/ the
main near-term focus continuing to be centered on the next chance
for widespread rainfall impacting a large part of the area tonight
through friday. the highest probabilities (40-60%) for greater
totals still look to remain focused over northern areas (mainly
north of us-6), heaviest in the 06z to 15z time frame. while the
best chance of showers and storms will occur overnight with the
frontal passage, a subset of available guidance suggests some low-
end potential for an earlier round of convection between 00z and 06z
on the nose of a surge of low-level warm air advection early this
evening. have opted to maintain 20-30 percent pops across northern
zones for this reason. otherwise, previous forecast thinking remains
largely on track through the period. / hammer

previous discussion (330 am edt thu apr 9 2026):

some uptick in shower coverage is expected this evening as a broad
upstream mid level trough begins to induce stronger low level flow
over the stalled boundary across the southern great lakes.
this setup should eventually turn into a southeast sagging
boundary/low level fgen forcing scenario late tonight into friday as
the mid level trough tracks across the great lakes region. weak mid
level lapse rates should limit thunder potential tonight into
friday, with best chance of few embedded storms late this
evening/early overnight. sharpening frontogenesis forcing
tonight/early friday will have the potential to produce at least a
narrow axis of 0.50"+ of rainfall north of us route 6 corridor, but
lesser rain amounts are expected for southern locations as stronger
frontal forcing should be migrating across the eastern great lakes
friday morning. area hydrographs do show some response to this
forecasted rain, but overall response is expected to be minor in
nature and currently not anticipated to have significant impact on
the ongoing river flooding.

seasonable temps are expected on saturday due to friday frontal
passage, with temperatures expected to be near seasonable levels.
mid level height rises in wake of friday mid level trough should
yield quiet weather conditions at least through first half of the
weekend. the second half of the weekend will feature a return of
stronger low level warm advection with more favored short wave track
expected from the central plains to the upper ms valley/northern
great lakes. by sunday night into monday, mid to high chance pops
(40-50%) will be maintained as central conus theta-e ridge shifts
across the region. some uncertainty still exists with shower chances
during this period due to likelihood stronger forcing will be
displaced northwest/north of the local area.

for next week, medium range guidance is in decent agreement that
split flow across eastern pacific will yield a stronger southern
stream upper trough which will eventually reach central conus by
next wednesday. confidence remains high in much above normal
temperatures continuing into tuesday with broad warm sector across
southern great lakes/ohio valley. weaker embedded short waves are
possible early next week in stronger westerly flow regime that could
induce periodic shower/storm chances considering some steepening of
mid level lapse rates anticipated during this period. present
indications would suggest perhaps best chances of more organized
convective chance by middle of next week when the western conus
upper trough ejects northeast. however, recent trend in ensemble
guidance points toward downstream upper ridging potentially holding
stronger across eastern third of the country into middle of next
week which could allow for some dampening of this upper trough
across the great lakes region. / marsili

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 117 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

a cold front is positioned just northwest of south bend
currently, extending from grand rapids to benton harbor to
chicago. as this front slowly sinks southeastward this afternoon
and eventually stalls over our area, a narrow line of scattered
showers will make it`s way across northern indiana. there has
not been any thunder or lightning associated with these showers
given weak instability today. expect mvfr visibilities at kfwa
for a few hours this afternoon and evening as the front works
through. tonight, low level flow and waa ramp up and may
interact with the then stalled cold front. this could produce a
few showers tonight into the early overnight, but confidence is
very low. better chances for rain arrive friday morning with
another cold frontal passage. mvfr ceilings and visibilities are
likely with rain and storms at both ksbn and kfwa tomorrow
morning; rain starts at ksbn around 09-10z and at kfwa between
11-12z. post-front, ceilings could drop as low as 700-800 ft
friday morning into the afternoon after the rain ends.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
534
fxus63 kdtx 091910
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
310 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

.key messages...

- another round of rain showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
develops mainly after midnight tonight lasting through tomorrow
morning.

- dry weather and cooler but still near normal temperatures tomorrow
afternoon and saturday.

- warmer temperatures moving in sunday into mid-week come with an
active shower and thunderstorm pattern.

&&

.discussion...

cold front continues its progression through southeast michigan this
afternoon as shower coverage gradually wanes across the south. the
cold front is expected to stall out around the southern michigan by
the end of the end of this afternoon. high pressure settling in
behind the front brings clear skies across most of southeast
michigan. gusty afternoon winds from better mixing will decrease
into this evening as lower level flow weakens and the boundary layer
becomes more stable. low end pops(20-30%) and lingering clouds will
remain in the forecast early in the evening along the southern
boundary supported by weak ascent downstream of a mid level wave.

tonight will see increasing coverage of showers, mainly after
midnight, as the mid level wave moves along this front drawing it
northward and nocturnal low level jet ramps up. weak mid level lapse
rates and the lack of surface instability will limit the thunder
potential, but a few elevated embedded thunderstorms will be
possible. pwats increasing towards and inch and potentially reaching
one inch along a narrow corridor arriving with the low-mid level
thetae. a sw to ne axis of rainfall averaging 0.50 to 0.75 inches is
forecast through tomorrow morning, which will be focused across
central to northern portions of the cwa. any embedded thunderstorm
activity may be able to push localized amounts up towards one inch
of rainfall. rainfall rates should be held in check for the most
part given the lack of strong instability.

high pressure will build back into the region late friday bringing
an end to the precipitation chances, but lower level moisture
trapped under an inversion will keep higher coverage of clouds into
friday night. high pressure center moves directly over michigan
saturday morning with increasing subsidence bringing a cloud
clearing trend. temperatures settle down into the mid 50s for highs
during the afternoon to start the weekend under the mostly clear
skies.

sunday will see strong warm/moist advection driving by a low
pressure system that will track across the northern plains clipping
the northern great lakes over lake superior. temperatures at 850mb
will surge to 10+c offering well above normal temperatures sunday
afternoon in the 60s to low 70s. better moisture will also result in
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances saturday night/early sunday
morning along an advancing warm front. the trajectory of this system
will carry rain chances sunday evening into monday. pattern remains
active through the early half of the week with relatively high
confidence in above normal temperatures in the 70s at least through
tuesday. models depicting weaker embedded shortwaves early week with
the greater western conus trough ejecting into the plains toward mid-
week will be responsible for multiple rounds of rain and
thunderstorm chances during this period. mid-week period currently
holds the better organized convective potential, but will have to
see how the pattern shakes out with how the ridge across the eastern
conus may affect the inbound pacific trough. this would direct
greater convective potential to the west.

&&

.marine...

southerly flow gradually decreases this morning and veers toward the
west throughout the day, behind an ontario low pressure system and
its associated cold front. strong low level flow tied to the passing
low also departs which ensues peak morning gusts stay below gales,
particularly for central lake huron where there was prior concern.
the wave response becomes less prominent as the day continues, but
still exceed small craft advisory criteria for the southern huron
nearshore zones, therefore an advisory remains in effect. rounds of
showers decrease from northwest to southeast today, with low
potential for thunder. a wave lifting out of the plains leads to
additional opportunities for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
tonight and friday, while some light snowfall is more likely for the
north/central huron basin. high pressure then builds out of the
upper midwest to start the weekend with drier and weaker northwest
flow. active weather will be possible again sunday through tuesday
due to several passing disturbances. potential exists for gusts to
gales, mainly late sunday into monday.

&&

.hydrology...

another round of showers develops mainly after midnight tonight that
lasts through tomorrow morning before ending tomorrow afternoon.
this system brings a sw-ne rainfall axis with amounts focused mostly
across central and northern portions of southeast michigan. rainfall
totals average 0.50 to 0.75 inches in a 6 to 12 hour time window.
there is a chance for localized totals near 1 inch where embedded
thunderstorms may develop. flooding potential remains low with this
event, although the new rainfall could slightly delay drainage from
river and stream systems after the heavy rain that occurred last
weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 146 pm edt thu apr 9 2026

aviation...

mid-level moisture ahead of the cold front is focused across far
southeastern mi and will continue to sag south while stalling with
the front along the mi/oh stateline this evening. these clouds and
some showers may persist or redevelop near dtw and yip late this
evening, but dry low-levels north of the front favor prevailing vfr
conditions into tonight. wind weakens through the evening while
veering around to north/northeast late. high cloud moves in then
lowers through the early morning as weak low pressure tracks in
along the stalled front. this brings an increasing coverage of light
rain through the morning hours, with mvfr ceilings likely. a period
of ifr is possible, centered between 10z and 18z, then broken mvfr
ceilings are favored through the afternoon as post-frontal
stratocumulus settles across the region. east to northeast wind for
most of the area early tomorrow backs to north then northwest
through the day. the detroit sites and areas south may see a period
of southwest wind as the front lifts north tomorrow morning, then a
flip to northwest flow in the afternoon.

for dtw...added a tempo group for scattered convective showers in
the 03z to 07z window tonight. confidence too low for a thunder
mention at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft today. medium late tonight
into friday morning. high after 14z.

* low for thunderstorms late this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......kgk
hydrology....aa
aviation.....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.