Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 am edt fri may 15 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes. the timing of rain chances on saturday is beginning
to come into better focus.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and milder conditions today and tonight.

2) shower and thunderstorm chances with increasing temperatures and
humidity this weekend as a warm front lifts through.

3) summer-like warmth expected for monday and tuesday. shower and
storm chances increase for tuesday and wednesday as a cold front
crosses, with a cooling trend behind the front.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

after a chilly (and in a few spots frosty) start to our friday, high
pressure exiting to the east will allow south-southwest winds to take
hold. this will begin a significant warm-up process, with highs
generally expected to range from the mid 60s to near 70 today. a weak
lake breeze may impact the lakeshore northeast of cleveland this
afternoon. it will be dry today beneath passing higher-level clouds.
tonight will be dry until rain-chances spread into the i-75 corridor
towards dawn saturday. lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s,
coolest across interior eastern oh and pa.

key message #2:

a warm front will lift across most of the area on saturday, stalling
near lake erie saturday night into sunday, before clearing well to
the north to end the weekend and start next week. weak shortwaves or
vort maxes (likely aided by upstream convection) are generally agreed
upon to move east across the region saturday morning/early afternoon
and again late saturday into saturday night. mid to upper-level
heights will be gradually rising on sunday as ridging builds in,
though some models suggest one more (weakening) shortwave may lift
out of the ohio valley and across the area during the day sunday.

there is decent agreement in an initial batch of elevated, gradually
weakening convection moving east across the area saturday morning
and early afternoon. this convection will occur just ahead of the
surface warm front, aided by lift from the first shortwave and
elevated instability. not expecting severe weather with this initial
round, with the greatest potential for thunder across northwest and
central/north central ohio saturday morning in closer proximity to
deeper instability. with that said, there`s decent potential for
lighter/decaying showers to work east across the rest of the area
saturday morning/early afternoon.

we should see a brief lull behind the initial round on saturday,
though a combination of the front across the area, boundaries left by
the first round of showers/thunder, daytime heating, and another weak
shortwave quickly approaching likely allows showers and storms to
re-develop saturday afternoon. how widespread and organized this next
round is will depend on how quickly the first round exits and allows
destabilization...guidance produces varying solutions, though
confidence in destabilization and a later round of surface-based
convection is higher farther south. uncertainty increases farther
north, though ultimately the whole area has at least a chance for
showers/thunder mentioned later saturday afternoon/evening. moderate
flow aloft may allow for organized convection with severe potential
saturday afternoon/evening if we see sufficient destabilization,
especially across the southern half of the area. confidence is low
pending the earlier activity, and the spc currently does not have
any of our area "outlooked" for a severe risk in the day 2
outlook...though that will be worth watching. activity will
generally diminish saturday night, though with the lingering nearby
front and a modest low-level jet we may not completely dry out. for
those reasons some lower pops linger through saturday night.

sunday will be the drier of the two weekend days in all likelihood.
however, most of the area has a low (generally 20-30%) chance for
showers and thunder mentioned, due to the nearby front and potential
for one most subtle shortwave to move through during the afternoon.

highs on saturday are expected to range from the mid 70s to lower
80s as dew points warm into the 60s from the west. leaned a bit
cooler than blended guidance (nbm) for highs on saturday given
obvious cloud/convective potential. a moderate southwesterly low-
level jet could contribute to gusty winds (30 mph or so) on saturday,
especially if we end up a bit drier and warmer. highs push into the
80s for much of the area on sunday, with parts of pa perhaps lagging
in the upper 70s still. by sunday night lows will stay in the 60s.

key message #3:

the main story to start next week will be summer-like warmth, with
temperatures expected to surge roughly 15 degrees above average to
near daily records for monday and possibly tuesday. 850mb
temperatures rising to 17-19c generally support high temperatures
ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 across the area. monday should be
the warmer of the two days given higher confidence in dry weather
with plenty of sunshine, and appears to be the greatest chance for a
few normally warmer locations to try touching 90. tuesday will still
be quite warm (mid-upper 80s) but may end up just a bit cooler as
clouds and shower/storm chances increase from the west ahead of the
approaching cold front. dew points generally in the low-mid 60s on
monday and mid 60s to near 70 on tuesday will add a bit of a heat
index on top of the expected air temperatures. while temperature and
heat index values should end up well-shy of headline criteria, the
expected temperatures are especially noteworthy this early in the
season, highlighted by the nws heat risk product highlighting the
entire area in "moderate" to nearly "major" risk for heat related
impacts. this tool has locally shown utility in highlighting days
with increased impacts (er/hospital visits) due to heat, and those
with outdoor plans or sensitivity to the heat will want to ensure
heat precautions are in place for monday and tuesday. as a note, the
nbm continues to run too warm on high temperatures both monday and
tuesday due to known issues with bias correction during early-season
heat events, and the official forecast continues to undercut it.

troughing is expected to push into the great lakes late tuesday into
wednesday, flattening ridging over the eastern u.s. and pushing a
cold front across the local area late tuesday night or wednesday.
monday should be dry, though with some potential for storms that
develop to our west to drift into northwest oh monday evening. shower
and storm potential ramps up more significantly tuesday afternoon
and evening as the front approaches from the west. shower and storm
chances continue into wednesday until the front clears to the
southeast. the exact timing of the front still has some uncertainty
as is typical in this range, and will influence the timing and
magnitude of shower and storm chances. there could be potential for
severe weather on tuesday, though overall this will be a more weakly-
forced frontal passage with weaker to moderate shear, which should
limit the potential for more organized severe weather potential.

cooler and drier weather build for the second half of the week as
high pressure presses into the great lakes and northeast. forecast
temperatures for wednesday and thursday will likely need to trend a
few or several degrees cooler than the current forecast as we get
closer if the airmass is as cool as currently modeled.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
high pressure is overhead today with increasing mid and high
level cloud. the high will move to the east coast through
tonight with mid-level clouds moving west to east this
afternoon and evening and sct-bkn clouds near 5k by tonight.
the taf period is expected to be dry through at least 06z with
a chance of precipitation arriving towards morning in nw ohio
and approaching cle around 14z. showers are likely with a few
thunderstorms possible.

light and variable winds will develop out of the south/southwest
at 6-12 knots today. eri is likely to see a wind shift to the
west northwest for a few hours in the afternoon. winds will drop
off towards this evening then increase again heading into
saturday morning.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms on
saturday. additional non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. non-vfr may return on tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds of 5-10 knots will back to southwesterly today
as high pressure shifts east of the area. south winds will
develop tonight and become southwesterly at 10-20 knots on
saturday. a frontal boundary will settle south and stall over
the lake on sunday with easterly winds. there is potential for
showers and thunderstorms on both saturday and sunday which
could result in erratic winds on lake erie. a warm front lifts
back north on monday with a return to south/southwesterly winds
of 10-20 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
520 am edt fri may 15 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend starts today with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s. highs in the low 80s saturday then mid to upper 80s
sunday through tuesday.

- 20-30% chances for light rain showers today south of us 24.

- increasing humidity and moisture through the weekend allow for
daily periodic rain and storm chances.

- strong to severe storms possible saturday and again monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 am edt fri may 15 2026

infrared satellite imagery shows high level clouds building in this
morning ahead of low chances for light rain showers today. a
decaying complex of showers and storms coming out of missouri and
illinois aided by an incoming weak 500mb shortwave will lead to
20- 30% chances for light rain mainly south of us 24 later this
morning and early afternoon. a warming trend begins today and
continues into the weekend. southerly winds ramp up alongside
diurnal heating with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph. although
skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today, southerly winds and
modest waa will lead to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s by
the afternoon.

a stronger 500mb shortwave moves in saturday morning and as a warm
front lifts northward across the area, moisture and instability will
increase. scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, some of
which may be strong to severe. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather on saturday. a gulf connection starts to
develop saturday with southerly winds. highs in the upper 70s to low
80s and dewpoints rising to around 60 will provide an increasingly
favorable environment for marginally severe storms. should any
strong to severe storms develop, the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts as mucape increases to 1000-2000 j/kg throughout the day.
winds parallel to the warm front could also yield backbuilding or
training alongside potential for heavy rainfall in any storms.

while daily periodic chances for rain and storms exist through early
next week, sunday has the lowest chances. as the warm front lifts
northward, it may stall near or just north of the indiana-michigan
state line and could spark a few isolated storms sunday in the
vicinity of i-80/i-90 (20-30% chances). mucape will be 1000-2000
j/kg once again during peak heating with around 30 kts of bulk
shear. highs climb into the low to mid 80s with southwest winds
pulling in more moisture into the ohio river valley and upper great
lakes regions.

much better surges of moisture arrive monday with dewpoints into the
upper 60s and pwats of 1.5" to 2". our forecast area will be well
into the warm sector by monday with breezy southerly winds allowing
for a strengthening gulf connection. scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms may develop, especially in the evening into the early
overnight hours. forecast soundings show ~40 kts of bulk shear as
the llj ramps up in the evening. spc currently has our area in a 15%
slight risk on monday, although considerable spread in model
guidance and uncertainty remains. sbcape of 1500-2000 j/kg will be
present during peak heating, although there is uncertainty in how
much and how quickly it could wane. additionally, meager low to mid
level lapse rates monday evening aren`t as favorable for severe
weather. with a cold front lagging until tuesday to sweep through,
lift may also be a limiting factor.

depending on what happens monday and how much the atmosphere can
recover tuesday, the cold frontal passage then may also spark
another opportunity for strong to severe storms. the timing of
the cold front is uncertain and significant spread in model
guidance exists in temperatures on tuesday. cooler, drier
weather follows midweek in the wake of the cold frontal passage.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 518 am edt fri may 15 2026

no changes needed for the 12z tafs. winds will remain light and
variable through sunrise. satellite imagery shows high level
clouds drifting in from the west ahead of a weak upper level
disturbance that will bring light rain showers mainly south of
us 24 today. although additional mid and high level clouds will
build in throughout the morning, ksbn and kfwa are expected to
remain dry with vfr ceilings throughout the taf forecast period.
southerly winds will ramp up in accordance with diurnal
heating; by midday into the afternoon, expect southwest winds to
be sustained around 12 kts with gusts as high as 20-25 kts.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
558 am edt fri may 15 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions today.

- summer like heat and humidity sets up this weekend and continues
through early next week. the potential exists for temperatures in
the middle 80s monday and tuesday.

- multiple opportunities for thunderstorms over the weekend and
early next week with low confidence on timing and coverage.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions prevail today into early tonight as conditions remain
dry and stable within the lowest levels. thicker canopy of mid level
cloud leftover from earlier upstream convection will funnel through
during the daylight period. any returns on radar likely to remain
virga given the depth the existing dry layer below. winds organize
out of the southwest early today with peak gusts expected to hold at
or below 20kts. the potential exists for a narrow corridor of
convective activity to lift across the region late tonight into
saturday morning. forecast will highlight a window for prevailing
showers, with a lower probability for an embedded thunderstorm
during this time.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms expected through early
tonight. an isolated thunderstorm will be possible saturday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms saturday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 am edt fri may 15 2026

discussion...

shortwave ridge will pass to the east this morning while a zonal
pacific jet streak streches from the central great lakes to the
pacnw with an associated low pressure system crossing through
northern ontario. at the lower levels, moist and warm advection will
occur throughout today aided by the s-sw flow. will see a bump in
temperatures this afternoon to around 70 degrees. the better
moisture will arrive in the mid and upper levels with weak pv
advection. this will mainly bring an increase in cloud cover through
the first half of the day with a brief period of lower cloud cover
this evening.

tonight into tomorrow will see a convective system develop across
parts of the midwest with its associated mcv tracking into southeast
michigan through tomorrow morning. timing amongst the hi-res models
has showers and thunderstorms associated with this mcv moving
through mainly between 09z and 14z saturday timed with the better
thetae advection. as it stands now, the unfavorable timing at the
diurnal minimum and the lack of strong instability will likely keep
the potential for isolated severe weather pretty low. given this
limitation, we remain outlooked for general thunder. a secondary
window for showers and thunderstorms will be possible saturday
afternoon along a boundary that is laid out around the southern
michigan border. the afternoon will hold the best chance for
instability to build, which will also supported by the greater warm
air advection that will support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
however, coverage of any convection looks sparse by saturday
afternoon with better coverage held to south of the state. will
continue to monitor trends, but outlook for day 2 also remains
general thunder.

the main story for sunday through the early part of next week will
be the summer like conditions and the continued chance for
thunderstorms. a strong pacific northwest trough will lead to
downstream riding that builds across the great lakes sending 850mb
temperatures to around 15c and 925mb temperatures to around 20c. this
will draw temperatures up to around 80 degrees for most of the area
outside of the thumb on sunday. a warm front will be drawn northward,
which could kick off some scattered thunderstorm activity, but mid
level capping may limit better convective potential. monday and
tuesday will be warming into the mid/upper 80s range depending on
cloud cover which may temper the higher values. strong moisture
transport will also send surface dewpoints into the 60s with near 70s
possible. the associated thetae air will be more than supportive of
continued thunderstorm chances through the early week, but
uncertainty remains in timing and overall coverage.

marine...

flow reorients out of the south this morning as high pressure
departs the ohio valley. winds strengthen gradually through the day
as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of low pressure that
impacts the region this weekend. gusts over saginaw bay will have
the best opportunity to briefly touch 25 knots, although will be
working against an increasingly stable environment so no small craft
advisories have been issued at this time. surface troughing triggers
an initial wave of showers and thunderstorms early saturday morning,
before washing out over the western great lakes through the daytime.
this creates an unsettled pattern characterized by dry periods mixed
with periods of showers and thunderstorms that lasts into early next
week. relief from this pattern then arrives mid-week with the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......mv


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.