Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 091137
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
637 am est tue dec 9 2025

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.synopsis...
low pressure moving through the northern great lakes will extend
a warm front across the area today. strong low pressure will
pass north of lake erie on wednesday and extend a cold front
across the area. a trough will set up over the lake on thursday
and brief high pressure will enter for thursday night. the
pattern will continue to be unsettled going into the weekend.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
plenty of active weather on tap over the next 36 hours as a
series of upper level troughs and surface low pressure systems
move through the great lakes region. for the local area, the
main concerns will be light widespread snow across the northern
half of the area today, accumulating snow in nw pa tonight into
wednesday, and elevated winds with the second system moving
through the region.

a low pressure system is entering lake superior this morning
with an associated warm front well to the south over illinois.
this front will continue to progress east overnight into
tuesday. on the cold side of the front, snow is expected with
support from an upper trough also moving through the great lakes
region. overall, the trend with this low and snow has been
further north and less impactful, but will continue to time out
a band of categorical pops for the northern third of the area
and a daytime accumulation of up to 0.5" to 1" for areas
closest to lake erie. behind the warm front, expecting
temperatures to warm considerably from recent days into the 30s
for most. there will be a break in precipitation this afternoon
and evening, as this first system races away from the forecast
area.

the more impressive of the two low pressure systems will arrive
tonight and pass north of lake erie on wednesday with an
associated cold front tailing through the area wednesday
afternoon and evening. given moderating temperatures across the
region ahead of this system, most precipitation will begin as a
rain/snow mix or all rain across the forecast area. the lone
exception will be in nw pa, where some trapped near-surface
freezing temperatures will remain and the initial precipitation
type may be freezing rain/drizzle. eventually, the residual warm
nose will get wiped out and there will be a transition to all
snow in nw pa. for much of the area, the rain or rain/snow mix
will likely not be too impactful, other than melting some of the
snow pack that has lasted a couple of weeks. however, for nw pa,
the timing of the system is coming together where there may be
an intense band of snow during the pre-dawn hours of wednesday
into the wednesday morning commute. this will be due in large
part to the strong lift from the incoming upper trough and
support from the left exit region of the upper jet. the snowfall
trend for nw pa continues to trend higher with 3-5" of snow
expected before snow mixes with rain late wednesday morning ahead
of the cold front. therefore, have hoisted a winter weather
advisory for southern erie and crawford counties in pa from 1 am
to 10 pm on wednesday.

as snow is falling in northwest pa, the surface low will be
passing north of lake erie and extending a cold front across the
area. ahead of this front, a strong low level jet will be moving
through the region and should do fairly well mixing to the
surface and suspect that there will be southwest wind gusts in
the 40 to 45 mph range. there are some probabilities suggesting
that surface wind gusts could reach 50 mph for nw oh and the
lake erie shoreline areas and a wind advisory would be needed if
trends increase. with the frontal passage itself, there will be
a quick drop in temperatures and a rapid change to snow for the
area. snow accumulations for areas outside of nw pa with the
front would be up to 0.5" of new snow. high temperatures on
wednesday will be earlier in the day before the front in the 30s
and perhaps some lower 40s.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
the main forecast question for wednesday night through thursday night
will be how much lake effect snow will there be in northeast
ohio and northwest pa before winds back ahead of the next system
on friday. the thermodynamics for lake effect snow appear pretty
good early on with -12 to -14 c at 850 mb and some residual
remaining across the region. there will also be northwest flow
over the area, which will be a shorter fetch for lake erie but
allow for lake huron to potentially get involved for a stronger
multi-band setup. at this point, there is uncertainty on where a
stronger band would be with the average location likely on the
nw/pa border. backing winds with time would shift these bands
further east and snow activity within the forecast area would
shrink with time and become just light snow showers. if a more
dominant band appears likely to to impact ne oh/nw pa, the
winter winter advisory will likely need to be extended/expanded
as needed for wednesday night into thursday.

a weak low pressure system will move through the ohio valley on
friday and bring a band of widespread snow to the forecast area.
right now, believe that there could be an inch or so of new snow
for the entire area. this system will bring a touch warmer low
level temperatures and this may allow for any lake effect behind
this system to be slower to start until later into the weekend.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
for the weekend into next week, the pattern returns to very cold
with more lake effect snow for ne oh/nw pa. a strong upper
trough will dig into the great lakes region and extend a cold
front through the area on saturday morning. this will allow for
a more favorable air mass to tap into the residual moisture from
friday`s low pressure system and allow for some accumulating
lake effect snow in ne oh/nw pa. there is still plenty of
uncertainty with the placement, timing, and intensity of snow,
but the weekend will have some snow activity to be concerned
about. the broader impacting feature will be temperatures
returning to the teens/20s for highs and lows in the single
digits/teens. winds will be elevated over the weekend, so wind
chills near or below zero are on the table. there could be some
reprieve later next week with high pressure eventually entering
the region and moderating some temperatures and allowing lake
effect to break up a bit.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
aviation weather looks messy with two systems impacting the area
over the next 24 hours. we are starting off with vfr early this
morning. the first system to move through neoh and nwpa will be later
this morning through the early afternoon. it will bring a brief
round of light snow with mvfr to possible ifr for a couple
hours during the middle of today. we have tempo groups for 2
hours from west to east during the late morning through early
afternoon with potential impacts of brief lower ceilings and
visibilities to do the band of light snow.

after the system today, mostly vfr ceilings will be around later
this afternoon through early evening. the next weather system
will move in later this evening through the end of the taf
period wednesday morning. the system tonight will bring bigger
impacts to aviation weather. rain and snow mix will move in from
west to east across the area, starting as early as 03z this
evening near tol and fdy. this widespread precip will move
eastward through 12z wednesday morning. conditions will likely
drop into lower end mvfr to ifr from west to east overnight.
locations in nwoh and north central ohio may change from snow
initially to more rain by the end of this taf period. light to
moderate snow will likely impact taf sites in neoh and nwpa
through 12z.

winds are starting out this morning from the south 8 to 14
knots. winds will increase from the south-southwest later this
morning 12 to 18 knots with gusts up to 30 knots later today
into tonight.

outlook...non-vfr is expected wednesday with a wintry mix of
rain and snow transitioning back over to snow wednesday
evening. periods of snow will be possible thursday through
saturday, especially in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. strong southwest to west wind gusts up to 30 to 40
knots are possible wednesday.

&&

.marine...
unsettled and rough marine conditions are expected on lake erie
today through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend.
a low pressure system will track across the upper great lakes
region today increasing the southerly flow over lake erie 15 to
25 knots and waves building, especially in the open water. a
stronger low pressure system will deepen to 29.20 inches as it
tracks through the great lakes late tonight into wednesday.
southwesterly winds will increase 35 to 40 knot gales late
tonight and wednesday. waves will build to 8 to 13 feet in the
open water late tonight through wednesday evening. there are
small craft advisories in effect today into tonight. gale
warnings will take in effect late tonight through wednesday
evening. as the strong low pressure system exits the region
wednesday night, the flow will become west-northwestlery 15 to
25 knots. additional sca will be needed after the gale warning
expires wednesday night through thursday.

high pressure will build in over lake erie thursday night into
friday with a brief lull in the winds and waves. another clipper
system and cold front will sweep across the great lakes on
saturday with a return of westerly winds 15 to 30 knots and
higher waves. additional sca will likely be needed this weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 1 am to 10 pm est wednesday for
paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez142.
small craft advisory until 4 am est wednesday for lez143>149.
gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est wednesday for lez143>149-
163>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sefcovic
near term...sefcovic
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 091159
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
659 am est tue dec 9 2025

.key messages...

- light snow diminishing this morning. snow this evening
changing to rain overnight as temps warm. there may be a brief
period of freezing rain or sleet at the onset this evening,
with potential for slick roads. little to no snow accumulation
expected.

- a rain snow mix will change to all snow by wed afternoon and
evening. lake effect snow persists into wed night. snowfall
amounts around 1 inch or less expected, with the greatest
totals near lake michigan.

- turning much colder this weekend with light snow at times.
wind chills mainly zero to -15. heavy snow is not expected.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 419 am est tue dec 9 2025

challenges this forecast package include the onset and timing
of precipitation, types of precipitation including the chance
for brief freezing rain producing light icing, and snowfall
amounts starting this afternoon after the rain or mixed
precipitation changes to all snow. light snow was spreading into
northwest indiana, but was still west of south bend as of 345
am edt. bufkit soundings were showing a fairly dry subcloud
layer southwest of warsaw. given radar and surface observations,
trends, and the latest model data light snow is expected to
accumulate less than 1 inch mainly north of the toll road today.

the soundings also showed mid levels cooling well before the
next round of precipitation beginning later tonight. the cold
front should move across the area early wednesday with a fairly
rapid changeover from rain to snow. a brief period of freezing
rain is possible. most of the forecast area should change over
to snow by late morning with nearly all areas becoming just snow
by mid afternoon wednesday. given the long cold pattern since
late november and given the cold pavement temperatures, it is
likely there will be some slippery spots on rural roads where
temperatures have not been warm enough long enough to melt the
snow.

thursday is on the threshold of another long and cold period
with highs often below 20 degrees and lows in the single digits.
wind chills will often be from -15 to +5 degrees.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 648 am est tue dec 9 2025

vfr/mvfr conditions to start the period at both terminals, with
light snow at kfwa diminishing within the next couple hours.
mvfr ceilings (and possibly some br) build in late morning at
ksbn, then possibly into kfwa through this afternoon (less
confidence, 14-18z). winds strengthen out of the s-sw this
morning into the afternoon, with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
possible at both sites. llws early this morning at ksbn before
better mixing moves in, then at both sites later tonight. a
rain/snow mix develops at ksbn this evening before changing to
all rain overnight as temperatures warm. ifr ceilings are
likely at ksbn after 23z, with visibility to around 1 1/2sm as
rain and snow move in. slightly later arrival time at kfwa (3-6z
time frame), with mainly mvfr ceilings and potential for
mvfr/ifr visibilities as rain moves in.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est wednesday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 091105
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
605 am est tue dec 9 2025

.key messages...

- an active mid-week stretch begins this morning with a fresh coating
to 1.5 inches of new snowfall, locally up to 2 inches.

- areas of light freezing rain/drizzle on top of new snow possible
midday as temperatures rise above freezing.

- snowfall resumes tonight, then changes over to mostly rain for the
majority of the region early wednesday morning.

- a winter weather advisory is now in effect tonight through
wednesday afternoon from m-46 north where new snowfall totals of
3-5 inches are expected.

- colder air returns wednesday evening.

- daily snow chances exist from thursday onward.

- the next arctic airmass arrives over the weekend with potential for
sub-zero morning wind chills.

&&

.aviation...

a series of low pressure systems keep aviation weather active today
through mid week. a fast moving lead system brings a short period of
snow to se mi terminals this morning until quickly exiting eastward
early this afternoon. upstream observations at forecast issuance
indicate a rapid reduction into ifr visibility with the band of snow
which then transitions to mvfr ceiling and patchy freezing
drizzle/mist. borderline ifr/mvfr boundary layer visibility in the
dry slot/warm sector of the system supports maintaining a few hours
of -fzdz until passage of the surface warm front by late afternoon.
mvfr ceiling then becomes ifr this evening as upstream clouds across
the midwest and tn/oh valleys fill in across lower mi ahead of the
next stronger low pressure system. a longer period of heavier snow is
punctuated by sw wind gusting near 30 knots from late evening
through tonight. the snow becomes mixed with rain as far north as fnt
as the surface low moves about over mbs toward sunrise wednesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today and tonight.

* high for initial precipitation type as snow this morning before
transitioning to a light freezing drizzle/mist this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am est tue dec 9 2025

discussion...

a very complex and thermodynamically sensitive setup commences this
morning due to two multi-faceted wintry clippers affecting southeast
michigan during the next 36 hours.

the speed max tied to the first clipper system is currently digging
through wisconsin based on goes vapor imagery (channel 9). preceding
adiabatic ascent-driven snowfall has quickly filled in over
southwest michigan early this morning. this wave of snowfall expands
across the rest of the state (from west to east) over the next
several hours, leading to minor accumulations for the forecast area.
latest consensus model data shows consistency in a fresh coating
south of i-94 to around 1.5 inches further north by midday. isolated
totals up to 2 inches are possible across the northern half of the
cwa (north of m-59). this upper bound is contingent on the
appropriate balance between peak moisture advection and proximity to
the track of the vortmax. hi-res guidance differs from most global
solutions in handling the axis of maximum qpf (greater than 0.20
inches). generally, the coarser models are more bullish across the
thumb region, while the cams are more dispersive throughout the
northern half (to even two thirds) of southeast michigan. most of
the event snowfall should occur along the front-end of the system,
between 07z and 17z. the bulk of the fluffy snow accumulations will
occur during a 2-4 hour period with peak rates between 0.25 and 0.50
inches per hour.

the area of lowest expected snow totals, washtenaw, lenawee, and
monroe counties, will also be the most susceptible to a period of
light freezing rain/drizzle. drier and warmer westerly mid-level
flow (as addressed in the last several discussions) will erode ice
nuclei and frozen hydrometeor concentrations by midday. lower column
forcing weakens by then, therefore lingering 2-3 kft stratiform
cloud depths should only be capable of inconsequential freezing
drizzle atop fresh snowpack. fram data is lean on ice qpf which
justifies minimal coverage of measurable ice accretions. assuming
the southern three counties receive even just a thin coating of new
snow this morning, they should be spared from transportation
impacts, especially once 2m temperatures climb above freezing. in
the lower likelihood scenario exhibiting a lack of accumulating snow
and a slower rise in temperatures above freezing, there could be
minor travel concerns.

given forecast totals at/below 2 inches, and negligible icing
amounts, no headlines were issued for today`s clipper. note that
areas of light icing (up to a thin glaze) are also possible
northward, up to the i-69 corridor.

as for tonight into wednesday, qpf has generally trended upward with
broader coverage of higher snow accumulations, attributed to a
second clipper system that follows in quick succession. lots of
variability in modeled snow amounts relative to minute differences
in latitude before the system`s cold front clears through, roughly
between 15z and 18z. a preference toward snow as the dominant
precipitation type (compared to rain) is evident in the latest model
adjustments, revealing potential for the highest event totals over
the central portion of the forecast area. however, this setup is
highly sensitive to the track of the surface low and its
accompanying warm advection belt. southwest flow tonight might allow
lows to hold above freezing along the michigan/ohio border. a
changeover to rain is then expected to bleed northward early
wednesday morning after earlier re-saturation aloft degrades. as
this process unfolds heading into sunrise, locations that cling to
snow longer will see a drop in slrs amidst 33-34f snowfall.

a winter weather advisory has been issued for tonight through
wednesday afternoon from m-46 north where new snowfall totals of 3-5
inches are expected. this grouping will be aided by the lowest
probability of a changeover to rain, prior to the passage of the
cold front and related cold advection. although the included
counties will be offset from the qpf bullseye, the preservation of
snow throughout the second clipper event should lead to the highest
overall snowfall totals. this assumption relies on forecast
thermodynamic profiles holding relative to the positioning of the
baroclinic zone. short-notice adjustments to headlines may be needed
later today to expand the advisory southward should the warm sector
progression underperform. even just an hour or two of partitioning
peak qpf to snow (instead of rain) between m-59 and m-46 could lead
to a spike in snowfall totals worthy of an advisory.

post-frontal airmass could spur a few flurries, but conditions
should largely dry out wednesday evening with temperatures falling
back below normal into the extended forecast period. some lake
effect snow will be possible thursday, but low-level cyclonic flow
trajectories are not favorable for widespread lake effect for
southeast michigan. still some solutions that brush a third clipper
past southern lower on friday, and latest nbm pops reflect this. the
next release of arctic air slams in saturday with a drop-off in 850
mb temperatures and potential for sub-zero morning wind chills each
morning.

marine...

a warm front is lifting through the central great lakes this morning
producing snow. wind gusts look to reach at least 30 knots across
all marine waters, with brief gales even possible in the 12-15z
tuesday time frame. a larger and stronger low pressure system is
then on track to move through lower michigan tuesday night into
wednesday producing widespread snow and even rain over lake st.
clair and lake erie. the southwest low level jet ahead of the looks
to be very strong, and low level profiles may not warm quick enough
to stabilize the near water surface. thus, it is looking like a
short period of gales will occur over western lake erie, with even
brief isolated gusts to gales over lake st. clair. on the flip side,
with the water temp near freezing over the nearshore waters and some
ice development, it may be just enough to limit mixing and keep
gusts to gales less than 3 hours. as usual with offshore flow
nearing gales, there will be heighten concern for low water
conditions across the western basin of lake erie.

rush of cold air behind the passage of the low will then support
strong northwest winds wednesday afternoon and early wednesday
evening. isolated, brief gusts to gales remain likely, but the cold
advection is exhausted quickly and the pressure gradient relaxes by
thursday morning. with the short duration and the marginal nature of
the gales, elected not to issue gale watch and small craft
advisories carry right into wednesday night. the cold airmass (850
mb temps in the negative lower teens/around -10 c) looks to persist
to close our the work week, supporting moderate winds and scattered
snow showers.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
wednesday for miz047>049-053>055.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.