Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
996
fxus61 kcle 241840
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
240 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

.what has changed...
there are no major changes to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry, seasonable weather will continue through the first half
of next week before a warming trend. overnight and early morning
fog will continue in nw ohio and interior portions of ne ohio/nw
pa, but coverage will trend lower through monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the southern great lakes and upper ohio valley regions will
remain locked in the familiar weather pattern through early next
week. an omega block, characterized by a couple of mid/upper
troughs and closed lows rotating into the rockies and four
corners regions and another trough/closed low set up off the
east coast with sharp central conus ridging in between, will
gradually break down through monday. this will allow strong
canadian high pressure at the surface, currently centered over
southern new england, to drift south into the mid atlantic and
southern appalachians by monday. another night of clear skies
and light winds with the high nearby tonight will allow lows to
dip into the upper 30s/low 40s, with some low 30s in far ne ohio
and nw pa. patchy frost is possible in those areas away from the
lake, but it will be of minimal impact since the growing season
has already ended up there. the bigger impact will be areas of
fog again tonight and sunday night, but increasing se return flow
to mitigate a daily lake breeze will start to lower dew points
enough to limit fog coverage at night. expect decent fog
coverage in nw ohio and interior parts of ne ohio/nw pa again
tonight since sufficient low-level moisture and small temp/dew
point spreads will remain below the inversion, but coverage will
be less than last night and will further trend less sunday
night.

a mid/upper shortwave dropping through the eastern great lakes
monday will drive a weak cold front through the area monday
afternoon, but very limited moisture return will lead to a dry
frontal passage. the main impact will be a brief cool down, with
highs in the upper 60s/low 70s monday cooling into the upper
50s/mid 60s tuesday as a new canadian high builds down across
the great lakes. however, starting wednesday and on into next
weekend, a strong subtropical pacific jet extension (a response
to the powerful el nino) will drive a series of storm systems
into the west coast. this will build an expanding mid/upper
ridge over the eastern conus leading to a big warming trend.
widespread 70s are possible the second half of the week and
into next weekend, with continued dry conditions until a cold
front possibly approaches late saturday.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
widespread vfr is being observed and will persist. the
exception is far western terminals where patchy dense fog is
once again possible early sunday morning. highest confidence in
fog is at ktol, however kfdy and kmfd may see reduced
visibilities to 4sm. elsewhere the fog potential will remain
very limited. winds are expected to remain calm.

outlook...primarily vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through monday as
high pressure gradually drifts south along the east coast. light
winds this afternoon will turn generally s at 5-10 knots tonight
and sunday before turning sw at 5-15 knots sunday night ahead of
a cold front. winds will turn n behind the front monday
afternoon then ne monday night and tuesday while increasing to
15-20 knots. small craft headlines are possible monday
night/tuesday since winds have been trending a little higher.
winds will gradually diminish tuesday night while turning ese,
with ese winds of 5-10 knots wednesday. a warm front lifting
across the lake wednesday night will set up stronger sw winds
thursday, but they look to stay below small craft criteria at
this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...04
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
558
fxus63 kiwx 241757
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
157 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

.key messages...

- pleasant weather persists through the upcoming week with
highs around 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain expected.

- areas of fog possible early monday morning along the i-69
corridor and into northwest ohio.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 155 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

strong upper-level ridging persists this afternoon with surface
high pressured noted over the northeast. as a result, status-
quo on the forecast overall including cruise-control
temperatures within a couple of degrees these next two days.
we`ll be monitoring for fog tonight into early monday morning.
guidance appears most keen on the i-69 corridor including
northwest ohio, yet light surface wind from the south may limit
any lake erie moisture advection, while radiational cooling
appears to be sufficient.

low pressure over manitoba this afternoon features a cold front
draped across the central and northern plains. this front attempts to
seep over our area tuesday as it gets hung-up atop our persistent
upper-level ridge. this will knock temperatures down a few degrees
tuesday, yet temperatures will still be well above normal (normal
high/low 60/40). otherwise, remaining very mild and dry this week
with our next chance for any rain not arriving until perhaps
thursday afternoon (20% chance) as another front attempts to cross
our ridge. the abundance of dry air and overall absence of forcing
leaves me unimpressed. instead, late next weekend into early
november looks to be the better opportunity to end our dry spell
with low pressure emerging from the southern/central plains.
&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 116 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

essentially a broken record for the forecast over the next 24
hours or so with the majority of the period seeing vfr
conditions and the only small window of challenges falling
overnight into sunday morning. kfwa remains the site to watch
for fog and/or stratus concerns. signals suggest at least some
possible mvfr vsbys with some chances for ifr/lifr vsbys and
possibly cigs 8 to 14z sun. only real change was to add a tempo
for 3/4sm br and let later shifts fine tune the forecast. any
fog/stratus has not been burning off till 16z-ish so will leave
the 3sm br run through 18z although it may very well be overkill
in those last hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
831
fxus63 kdtx 241936
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
336 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for dense fog development sunday and monday
mornings. any patchy/dense fog is expected to dissipate by late
morning.

- high temperatures increase to around 70 on sunday before a dry
cold front drops us back into the upper 50s to low 60s monday and
tuesday.

- dry conditions through the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

se mi continues to reside under the western edge of northeastern
high pressure. upper ridging folding into lower mi supports a couple
degree warmer day as highs reach the upper 60s. with light
south/southeast winds overnight, fog potential is favored along the
lakes st clair-erie as lake moisture is drawn inland though patchy
radiative fog also possible further north like the previous couple
mornings.

upper ridging is flattened overtop the state sunday by a cold front
sagging out of northern ontario. core of the accompanying airmass
(850mb temps 10-11c) allows highs to make a run to 70. said front
eventually sinks across the cwa early monday to little fanfare given
the detachment from the parent wave over eastern canada and frontal
orientation parallel to mean flow. fropa does bring a brief cool
down closer to late october averages as 850mb temps fall to low
single digits c with highs in the 50s-low 60s.

arrival of a series of waves over the pacific northwest induces low
amplitude ridging over the central conus mid to late week, only
briefly interrupted by a southern stream low lifting through the
midwest. locally this leads to another stretch of above normal
temperatures and limited chances for rain to close out the month.

&&

.marine...

we will remain on the western periphery of high pressure anchored
over the new england area through the rest of the weekend. this will
favor a continuation of southerly flow across the area. wind speeds
will increase through the end of the weekend as the pressure
gradient increases in advance of an approaching cold front. this
cold front slows down out over the straits sunday, but then
gradually proceeds to drop south across lake huron sunday night into
monday. as the front moves through, south winds become northerly by
monday and then gradually veer and become easterly by tuesday. wind
speeds along and behind the front are progged to remain below 25
knots. with the return of onshore flow, waves build to around 3 feet
or so based on the current forecast. falling short of small craft
concerns, but something to keep an eye on. there could be a few
showers along the cold front sunday afternoon into monday morning
across lake huron, but overall the front will be on a weakening
trend as it drops through the region.

the pattern becomes more progressive next week, with a series of low
pressure systems tracking through the western great lakes region.
while this will result in fluctuating wind directions mid to late
week, ensembles do not any signals for any headline-worth winds
through the end of next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 154 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

aviation...

large surface anticyclone will remain parked over the northeast
united states through sunday. with the position of the high
pressure, light easterly flow trajectories will persist tonight
before gradually shifting southwesterly by late sunday. light wind
speeds bring the potential for fog again sunday morning. some high
cloud potential does provide more uncertainty with regards to the
coverage of fog late tonight. forecast soundings and mos guidance
supports a fog signal at all of the sites and have included
prevailing at the northern sites with tempo at the detroit
terminals. there is an argument that could be made with perhaps a
greater potential for fog at the southern taf sites, but out of
respect for persistence decided to go with lifr at all sites.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm sunday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......ja
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.