Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
759 am edt fri sep 11 2026

.what has changed...
some fog will be expected across the area this morning as clouds
clear out of the region. there is a bit more confidence in rain
chances on sunday with a cold front entering the region.

&&

.key messages...
1) a pair of fronts moving through the region on saturday and
sunday will bring scattered showers and storms. there is some
limited potential for a stronger storm on saturday afternoon and
evening.

2) warm weather is expected on tuesday and wednesday with
additional shower and storm chances possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will lift north across the area tonight and allow
for warm and humid conditions to return for the weekend. for
saturday, a mid-level shortwave will move through the ohio
valley and allow for shower and thunderstorm development. with a
conditionally unstable air mass, it is possible for a storm to
become stronger with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain during
the peak heating hours on saturday afternoon and evening. for
sunday, there is growing consensus on a cold front approaching
and slowly moving south across the forecast area. this front
should provide lift to generate at least some convective
activity on sunday. however, the air mass should be less
suitable after saturday`s activity and shower/storm coverage
should be lower.

key message 2...
the forecast for tuesday and wednesday is trending more
unsettled as the forecast area will be in the middle ground of a
ridge to the south and a trough moving through canada. the ridge
should help keep the area dry on monday with high pressure
moving through the region. however, the ridge will back off a
bit for tuesday and wednesday, allowing for some of the energy
of the upper trough to enter the great lakes, coincident with a
cold front moving through the region. the air mass ahead of this
system will be warm and humid and again conditionally unstable
to allow for scattered shower and storm activity next week. will
need to watch this portion of the forecast for trends as it
approaches closer.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
patchy fog across southeastern terminals is expected to
dissipate over the next few hours with widespread vfr
anticipated. have put lines in for mid-level bkn/ovc across
terminals as cloud cover increases from the southwest. light
and variable winds tonight will shift east- northeast during the
daytime today before turning southeast this evening. winds will
remain 10 knots or less through taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms on
saturday, especially during the afternoon and early evening.
non-vfr possible again in scattered showers and storms on
tuesday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the great lakes region will support north to
northeast flow over the lake today. as the system moves east,
winds over the lake will shift to the east then southeast
tonight as a warm front crosses the lake. offshore flow will
continue through saturday with the lake in the warm sector of a
low pressure system. a cold front will approach and cross the
lake on saturday night into sunday, allowing for onshore flow to
return to the basin. winds could be briefly strong enough to
merit some elevated waves and moderate swimming risk. the front
will settle south of the lake on sunday and elevated northerly
flow will persist across the basin through sunday night keeping
waves in the 2 to 4 ft range. the front will lift back north
across the lake on monday and offshore flow will return to the
basin on monday night. this flow could be stronger on tuesday
depending on the track of a low pressure system and cold front
through the region. at a minimum, there appears to be some
brief windows for moderate swimming risks on the lake through
the forecast period. depending on the strength and timing of the
cold front on sunday and the system on tuesday, there could be
windows for a small craft advisory.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
649 am edt fri sep 11 2026

.key messages...

- patchy fog this morning. dry today with less humidity. highs
around 80 degrees.

- next chances for rain and storms will be friday night into
saturday, with the highest chances of 30-40% south of us 24.
highs in the low to mid 80s.

- mostly dry sunday and monday, with a 20-25 percent chance for
showers and thunderstorms sunday night into monday morning.
highs in the low to mid 80s.

- there is a moderate swim risk forecast on sunday for
southeast lake mi beaches. breaking waves and currents are
expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 441 am edt fri sep 11 2026

dry today into this evening with high pressure at the surface and
upper level ridging remain in place. expect partly to mostly sunny
skies and highs around 80 degrees. patchy fog is possible this
morning, with a few locations showing less than 1 mile visibility.
don`t expect any widespread dense fog, and suspect it`s fairly
shallow. if lower visibilities are reported persistently at a
greater number of stations, may issue an sps to raise awareness for
those on the morning commute.

a trough moves through later tonight into saturday as the upper
level ridge meanders to the ne conus. warm air/moisture advection
kicks in overnight on the llj, bringing additional moisture to the
area, especially further east. we could see showers with the warm
front tonight into early sat, and then again during the afternoon
hours as a cold front (associated with a low pressure system moving
into hudson bay) moves into our western cwa. the front then crosses
into the overnight hours, settling just south and east of our cwa by
morning. suspect the best chances will be along/south of us 24,
especially east of i 69. for now have 20-40 percent chances in this
area, with a few thunderstorms possible sat afternoon. kept sat pm
dry for now, but if front moves through slower we could see pops
shift further north and west and extend into sat evening. highs
saturday will be in the low-mid 80s (a few upper 80s west of in-15).
severe weather is not expected at this time.

another shortwave could move through somewhat zonal/slightly
troughed flow on sunday, perhaps lighting up convection along the
frontal zone to the south/east of our cwa. for now have our area
dry, but if the front is slower to exit we could see chances for
showers/isolated storms return for areas along/south of us 24.
otherwise, on sunday we`ll have breezy northerly winds (especially
near lake mi), so expect breaking waves of 2-3 feet and potentially
strong currents along se lake mi beaches. accordingly, have a
moderate swim risk forecasted for both la porte co, in/berrien co,
mi.

monday into early tuesday afternoon should be mostly dry as an upper
level ridge/surface high pressure build in over the great lakes.
highs will be in the mid-upper 70s, low-mid 80s. the best chances
for any precipitation will be later tue afternoon into thursday (30-
65 percent). an upper level trough (potentially a closed low) will
dig into the western edge of the exiting ridge during this period,
with a surface low drifting from the northern plains monday
afternoon into northern ontario/hudson bay by tuesday afternoon. the
trailing cold front will attempt to push through sometime tuesday
afternoon/evening and then stalls somewhere over our cwa-becoming a
focus for more persistent activity through thursday. the models
disagree on the strength/exact position of the upper level ridge and
whether or not the upper low remains and deepens (resulting in a
stronger surface low) or if it will weaken and fill, resulting in a
weaker surface system. it`s possible we stay dry until late tuesday
if the weaker low materializes and/or the ridge is stronger than
forecast. we could see chances as early as tuesday morning/early
afternoon if the stronger upper low/surface system develops and/or
the ridge is weaker than forecast and moves further se. for now,
have 30-50 percent chances tue, and 40-60 percent chances tue night
into thursday as the cold front moves in and stalls over our
area. thunderstorms are possible monday night then again tuesday
afternoon into thursday, especially during the afternoon hours.
if the front makes it in, we`ll see gusty southwest winds shift
north through the afternoon/evening, with waves potentially up
to 4 feet on lake mi beaches in la porte co, in/berrien co, mi.
kept a moderate swim risk for now given lower confidence (2-3 ft
waves), but definitely worth keeping an eye on for a potential
beach hazards statement/high swim risk.

highs tue will be in the mid-upper 80s (especially if drier model
solutions are correct), and then remain in the upper 70s, low-mid
80s for wed-thu. friday will be coolest, with highs in the 70s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 645 am edt fri sep 11 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals this period, with
light e-se winds. increasing mid/high level cloud cover,
particularly at kfwa tonight into saturday morning, with
potential for rain showers towards the 6-12z time frame.
confidence was too low to include in the taf at this point, and
any that do occur will likely be non-impactful.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 am edt fri sep 11 2026

.key messages...

- a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm on saturday, otherwise
a quiet weekend, accompanied by slightly above-normal temperatures.

- showers expected to return by the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

shallow early morning fog north of dtw quickly dissipates in favor
of full vfr clear conditions for the bulk of today. prospects for
any high based cumulus are tied to the eastward drift of high
pressure and the gradual development of light se wind off lake erie
later this afternoon.

moisture transport gains traction tonight as the low level wind
field continues to increase and veer southerly. scattered to broken
vfr clouds move up from the ohio valley frontal zone by late evening
through overnight. ceiling around 5000 ft is likely by sunrise
saturday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast today or tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 251 am edt fri sep 11 2026

discussion...

latest water vapor shows dry mid levels over southeast michigan,
which is also confirmed by the 00z dtx raob, which indicated a 700
mb dew pt depression of 20 c with a pw value of 0.59 inches. this
dry air mass will hold today, although patchy ground fog looks to be
around to start the day. return flow around the departing high
pressure will increase this evening and tonight. a shortwave over
missouri will shear off to the northeast today and mainly track
through the eastern great lakes saturday morning. still, sufficient
moisture tracking into eastern half of the cwa, along with enough
destabilization (slightly negative li`s and mlcape of 750+ j/kg),
will support the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms
(see 00z hrrr/rrfs). a secondary moisture axis out ahead of a cold
front will also track in from the western great lakes late in the
day, passing through during the evening or washing out altogether.
the bulk of the shower activity is expected to reside over lake
huron however.

with cooler cyclonic flow on sunday, its still not out of the
question for isolated light showers before a mid level dry slot
becomes fully established over southern michigan. 850 mb temps
dropping into the mid single numbers sunday night will bring
potential for mins in the 40s as high pressure builds over the
region. the wild card is whether low clouds develop with the light
onshore flow off the warm waters of lake huron.

a strong storm system will track through the northern plains on
monday and into northwest ontario monday night. the active warm
front is expected to reside over western great lakes. warm air will
eject out of the southern plains, with the 00z euro indicating 850
mb temps warming to 20 c; setting up tuesday as sneaky warm day
ahead of cold front. timing of fropa and extent of cloud cover and
showers is uncertain, but high temperatures in the 80s seems
reasonable. mid level frontogenesis hanging around tuesday night
into wednesday will offer up a continued good chance of rain.

marine...

high pressure in place through tonight maintaining benign marine
conditions. active pattern returns late saturday-sunday as low
pressure lifting through northern ontario drags a cold front across
the area in the morning. overnight/early day arrival and detachment
from the parent low greatly limit any shower/storm chances. moderate
trailing northwest flow develops over northern lake huron daytime
sunday with peak gusts between 25-30kts. this front looks to stall
somewhere near southern lake huron offering an isolated shower
chance into monday. a more dynamic system then lifts out of the
plains and over the northern great lakes monday night-tuesday.
preceding warm, humid airmass will fuel better scattered storm
chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.