Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
682
fxus61 kcle 131356
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
956 am edt fri mar 13 2026

.what has changed...
increased pop`s in/near the primary snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa
this evening into the predawn hours of saturday morning in order
to account for an expected period of lake-enhanced precip, first
in the form of a rain/snow mix, but changing quickly to all snow
via caa at the surface and aloft. the lake-enhanced snow will then
transition to pure lake-effect snow before precip ends in
response to eventual and significant dry air advection at the
surface and aloft, and accompanied by w`erly mean low-level
flow. total snow amounts from this activity should be a coating
to 3". greatest amounts are expected in the higher terrain of nw
pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) strong winds are expected today which may result in downed trees
and power lines. widespread power outages remain possible today.
scattered rain/snow showers are also possible, especially across
northern counties.

2) another robust low pressure system will impact the region on
sunday and monday, brining another round of strong winds. this
system will have more widespread precipitation.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
confidence is high that a high wind event will occur today
across the area, likely resulting in areas of downed trees and
power lines and the potential for widespread power outages. hi-
res model guidance is persistent in a strong 850mb llj of 50-60
knots pushing across the area. winds will quickly ramp up today
as the mixing layer deepens and lapse rates steepen. current
models continue to suggest mixing heights increasing to almost
850mb this afternoon, leaving a direct path for this llj to mix
to the surface. sustained winds today will reach 25 to 35 mph,
with gusts of 50 to 60 mph likely. the winds gusts will peak
this afternoon. isolated `power showers` are also possible as
any shower that develops will aid in mixing these strong winds
to the surface. with that being said, much of the shower
potential should be focused across the northern counties and
lake erie, although cannot rule out a stray shower further
south. to account for these hazardous conditions, a high wind
warning remains in effect for the entire area today. additional
elevated winds across far neoh and nwpa tonight have warranted
an extension in the headline tonight with those counties now
expiring at 2am edt. winds will return to 5 to 15 mph by
saturday morning, lingering from the northwest.

key message #2:
on sunday, a deepening low pressure system will begin to move
northeast into the great lakes region, moving a warm front north
early sunday. this system will become centered over the region on
monday, moving a strong cold front east. given the very strong
pressure gradient that is expected, confidence continues to increase
in another round of widespread, strong winds.

winds will begin to ramp up sunday afternoon behind the warm front
as temperatures climb into the 60s. along the warm front, scattered
rain/snow showers are possible, although little to no accumulation
is expected. winds will gradually back starting sunday night as a
strong cold front is expected to begin to push east. a strong llj of
50 to 60 knots will push across the area, only enhancing surface
winds. current forecast suggests sustained winds of 25-35 mph with
peak gusts of 40-50 mph possible monday.

in addition, ahead and along this cold front, more widespread rain
showers are expected and given the strong dynamic set-up, cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder. these widespread showers will
progress east throughout the day on monday, gradually transitioning
back to snow monday afternoon as a caa regime sets in. this means
that high temperatures for the day will likely occur monday morning,
reaching into the 50s to 60s before quickly falling into the 20s
overnight. initial snowfall accumulations should remain minimal
given the warmer antecedent conditions, but as showers approach
eastern counties monday evening, caa coupled with a setting sun may
result in snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
a mix of snow and rain showers will be more widespread than
previously thought over the next 2 to 3 hours this morning as a
warm front works across the region bringing a band of precip.
most of this will be light, but brief drops to mvfr/ifr are
possible anywhere. the best chance for ifr continues to be at
keri. once this band exits the region, mainly dry conditions are
expected today until scattered snow showers in the cold air
advection this evening into tonight, mainly in ne ohio and nw
pa impacting kcle and keri.

the main issue today continues to be the high winds. expect
winds to rapidly increase this morning, with sw winds of 25-35
knots gusting to 45 knots by 16z at most terminals. winds will
turn w behind the trailing cold front this afternoon, with gusts
over 50 knots likely, especially in nw ohio and near the
lakeshore. w winds will gradually diminish tonight.

outlook...non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow showers
saturday night into sunday. non-vfr may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on monday with lake effect snow possible
monday night into tuesday.

&&

.marine...
strong low pressure passing through the central great lakes
today will bring solid gale conditions to all of lake erie. s to
sw winds will increase to 30-35 knots this morning before
further increasing to 30-40 knots this afternoon while becoming
wsw. gusts to 50 knots are still expected this afternoon. this
will build wave heights to 10-13 feet in the central and eastern
basins and 6-9 feet in the western basin. gale warnings remain
in effect through 08z saturday for the entire lake, with a low
water advisory for the western basin as the wsw winds drop water
levels 1-2 feet below low water datum.

the winds will slowly diminish tonight into saturday morning and
will become light and variable during the day saturday as high
pressure builds across the region. e winds will increase to
15-20 knots saturday night, becoming se and further increasing
to 20-30 knots by late sunday. winds will then turn s sunday
night and eventually wsw monday afternoon while further
increasing to 30-40 knots as another strong low crosses the
region, so gales look likely again sunday night into monday. w
winds will gradually diminish monday night into tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
high wind warning until 2 am edt saturday for ohz011>014-089.
pa...high wind warning until 2 am edt saturday for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lez142>147-162>167.
low water advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lez148-149-168-169.

&&

$$

discussion...04/jaszka
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 131030
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 am edt fri mar 13 2026

.key messages...

- high wind warning is in effect for gusts up to 60 mph.

- a strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms late
sunday into sunday night, followed by strong winds and snow on
monday. accumulating snow is expected, mainly in northwest in
and southwest mi.

- temperatures mid 60s to near 70 on sunday will crash into the 20s
by monday. tuesday morning wind chills near 0.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 249 am edt fri mar 13 2026

a powerhouse low moves through the great lakes today bringing a
sharp increase in wind gusts this morning that persists through the
day. southwesterly wind gusts by sunrise (45-50mph) become westerly
prior to noon and reach their peak intensity during the midday hours
(50-60 mph). wind gusts diminish near sunset. some guidance suggests
wind gusts of 45 mph could linger in northwest ohio just beyond our
8pm edt expiration time of the high wind warning; trends will be
monitored.

the 992mb low, currently over western mn, is already producing
widespread 45-55 knot (52-63 mph) wind gusts in the wake of its
associated cold front(s). this is well correlated to a 925-mb jet of
similar magnitude working its way through the dakotas. this jet
might lose a few knots of its punch through time as the parent
trough flattens through time, but nonetheless, a very impressive
setup for wind today with the ~990mb low contrasting with a
1024mb high over the southeast us, and mixing this afternoon
tapping into the 60+ knot jet at 850mb (4k ft agl).

along with the wind, a brief period rain/snow is possible this
morning, primarily along and north of the us 6 corridor. a stout
dry layer is so far preventing hydrometeors from reaching the ground
as of this early-morning writing. but, racing across iowa is a
strong but narrow area of rain showers. despite the 12-degree
dew point depressions there, rain is reaching the ground. the
duration of precipitation will be brief locally and little to no
snow accumulation is expected. this afternoon, there could be a
brief period of lake-enhanced snow but duration will be brief
as well, in part due to the overwhelming wind profile today.

the next storm system of interest takes shape during the latter part
of the weekend as low pressure deepens over the central us. an
amplified trough over the plains places us in the warm sector
starting early sunday morning. where this warm front sets up will be
the focus for rain (even some early-am snow showers in southern
mi). as the front progresses north during the day, a period of
dry weather is anticipated before the cold front sweeps through
sunday night and monday. during the dry period,another round of
gusty winds is possible (40-70% chance of 40mph wind gusts).
showers, and a few thunderstorms, along the cold front
depending on instability profiles could produce locally damaging
wind gusts as well. then, by monday morning, rain changing to
snow looks to result in 1-2 inches of snow area-wide before lake
effect snow adds to the total for westerly/northwesterly flow
locations. once again, the sunday to monday period will feature
a 30 to 40 degree temperature change with temperatures monday
tumbling into the 30s.

a highly amplified upper-air pattern persists through the week with
our area on the fringe of a sharp temperature gradient. this
gradient would be the channel for passing shortwaves, including
a clipper system (snow) wednesday, attempting to suppress the
building four corners ridge. overall, am optimistic for a
gradual warming trend beyond midweek but the thermal gradient
and active jet stream results in murky details.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 630 am edt fri mar 13 2026

no significant changes to the wind forecast today with frequent
gusts of 45-50kts expected as diurnal mixing ramps up. the
strongest winds are expected roughly 15-18z with a wind
direction very near 260 degrees. light rain is exiting the area
and vfr conditions will persist through the period. winds slowly
veer and relax this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...high wind warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...storm warning until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 131334 aaa
afddtx

area forecast discussion...updated
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
934 am edt fri mar 13 2026

.key messages...


- a high wind warning remains in effect for all of southeast
michigan until 10 pm for gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

- another round of accumulating snowfall arrives saturday night into
sunday, changing over to rain showers by sunday afternoon with some
light icing possible during the transition, followed by some
embedded thundershowers overnight.

- a bit cooler monday, then turning significantly colder tuesday,
with additional opportunities for rain, snow, and gusty winds.

&&

.update...

the first surge of strong winds has already produced wind gusts of
40-60 mph. the 12z dtx sounding indicated strong winds aloft, 58
knots at 850 mb and 43 knots at the 925 mb level. this intense,
negative tilted storm system will continue to move through the
central great lakes this afternoon.

as boundary layer depths increase and low level lapse rates
steepen, should see some notable capes of 30-60 j/kg. atlhough the
bulk of this instability resides below the dgz, enhanced wind gusts
are still expected this afternoon within any convective elements.
upstream observations remain very impressive, providing high
confidence of 55-60 mph gusts (trending westerly), with potential to
hit 65 mph in localized spots late today. the only mitigating factor
is the sub 990 mb low over northeast wisconsin will be slowly
filling in/weakening. none-the-less, the high wind warning through
the evening hours looks to be in good shape, and unfortunately,
power outages will expand in coverage throughout the day.

will allow the winter weather advisory to expire across northern
tier of counties. while some snow was observed on the untreated/less
traveled roads, temperatures are currently at or slightly above
freezing. temps will continue to rise during the day, into the 40s
for most places.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 713 am edt fri mar 13 2026

aviation...

strong low pressure system will continue the track across the great
lakes today passing over northern lower michigan this afternoon.
good ascent ahead of this system is producing snow showers that are
moving across all terminals this morning resulting in mvfr ceilings
and down to ifr visibility. there may be periods of moderate to
heavier snowfall mainly focused north of ptk leading to some
snowfall accumulation. brief period of drying may help ceilings lift
to borderline mvfr/vfr this afternoon with most of the area seeing a
transition to rain/snow or all rain during the afternoon. a very
strong low level jet to 60+ knots will be swinging around the south
side of the low. deep mixing combined with the very strong low level
wind field will bring the highest wind potential with gusts to 40-45
knots or greater for all terminals by early afternoon as winds shift
from southwest to west. gust approaching 50 knots or perhaps
achieving it will be possible across the southern metro terminals
today. winds gradually ease while shifting out of the northwest late
this evening and into early tomorrow morning.

for dtw...the most probable window for light snow will be through
14z. warmer surface temperatures, should keep accumulations under an
inch and confined mainly to grassy surfaces before a transition to
rain/snow or all rain this afternoon. west-southwest winds will
strengthen rapidly after 15z, with frequent gusts in the 40 to 50
knot range expected through the afternoon. there will be a slight
wind direction shift to the west late this afternoon into the
evening hours with northwest winds for bulk of the tonight period.
the west wind shift will lead to crosswind thresholds concerns.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today and tonight.

* moderate in precip type as all snow this morning. low this
afternoon.

* moderate to high in crosswind thresholds being exceeded afternoon
and evening.

prev discussion...
issued at 358 am edt fri mar 13 2026

discussion...

987 mb low pressure currently located just south of duluth will
track ese into northern lower michigan by this afternoon. ahead of
the system, accumulating snowfall will spread across much of
southeast michigan, then change over to rain showers during the
afternoon once warmer air fills in. the highest accumulations (2-4
inch range) are expected along/north of m-46, therefore a winter
weather advisory is in effect through friday morning. meanwhile, a
high wind warning is also in effect to address intense pressure
gradient constriction, resulting in peak prevailing winds near 30
mph and gusts up to 60 mph.

regarding this morning`s snowfall, accumulating snow is fast
approaching the tri-cities, and will spread across the rest of the
northern half of the forecast area over the next several hours.
temperatures remained well below freezing last evening and through
the overnight hours which supports accumulations at onset. system
relative perspectives illustrate an axis of steep isentropic ascent
within the mid-levels. this is powering the upstream flanking arc of
snowfall which includes segmentation of reflectivity returns in
excess of 30 dbz. the initial rounds of snow will be moderate to
briefly heavy given the overlap of strong uvvs and the vertical
expansion of a saturated dgz. as the core of the system approaches,
qpf will be maximized as snowfall becomes more widespread with the
peak of the event roughly occurring between 12z and 15z. local
probabilistic ensemble data indicates potential for snowfall rates
to briefly approach an inch per hour with slrs aob 15-1. this burst
of snow will be responsible for the bulk of accumulations, and
largely target areas along/north of m-46. as mentioned earlier,
expected snowfall range is 2-4 inches, but locally higher totals
approaching 5 inches cannot be ruled out for the far northern
portion of midland and bay counties. further south, totals drop-off
with 1-3 inches from m-59 to i-69, while snowfall should largely
hold below 1 inch south of m-59. robust warm advection arrives by
this afternoon, leading to a changeover from snow to rain.
precipitation becomes increasingly scattered with time during the
afternoon hours as the dry slot punches in from the southwest.

also of concern, the highly ageostrophic negatively tilted shortwave
trough effectuates the translation of a powerful low-level wind
field. as of 0542z, kfsd wsr-88d vwp data sampled 118 knot winds at
4 kft agl and 60 knot winds at 1 kft agl. deterministic progs
indicate an 850 mb jet of 60-70 knots moving overhead by 12z this
morning. the nocturnal inversion wears off between 09z and 11z, with
neutral stability profiles lingering until closer to 13z or 14z. low-
level lapse rates eventually steepen which quickly activates
turbulent mixing. gusts should be strongest during the mid-morning
hours during the passage of the strongest wind field, but remain
elevated through the rest of the afternoon, increasing again into
the early evening time-frame. the back edge of the system offers a
renewed spike in lower column winds, which should drive one last
uptick until ridging starts to build in from the west. note that
forecast soundings indicate well-mixed profiles for most of tonight
keeping conditions blustery after the high wind warning is set to
expire (10 pm).

anticyclonic configuration draws seasonably cool air back into the
region with drier and much less windy conditions saturday.

active pattern returns saturday night into sunday with another
dynamic system set to affect much of the great lakes region.
fortunately, southeast michigan should reside to the southeast of
the heaviest snowfall/banding which could bring over 2 feet of snow
for portions of northern lower and the up. an elongated isentropic
ramp will drive moist adiabatic ascent and snow generation across
lower michigan after 06z sunday. accumulations are still highly
track dependent as the system`s vortmax resides well off to the
west, barely reaching the lee-side of the rockies by 12z sunday. the
speed at which this wave amplifies is impressive, as the base of the
mid level trough digs from seattle to the co/nm border in 24 hours.
ultimately, consensus guidance is very broad with local snowfall
totals ranging from a half inch in the south to around 6 inches in
along the far northern edge of the forecast area. no headlines are
needed at this time given the anticipated run-to-run adjustments in
qpf placement, but a more southeasterly track would favor a rise in
forecast snow amounts. as with today`s system, a warm front lifts in
leading to a transition from snow to rain. should accumulating snow
develop, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, a
period of light freezing rain is possible sunday morning until the
warm front makes deep northward inroads. another possibility is that
the environment struggles to favorably evolve thermodynamically,
limiting the availability of in. outgoing forecast features highs
reaching the 60s by sunday evening.

the actual surface low crosses through monday as the pv anomaly
reorients and quickly stretches from the tennessee valley northward
into hudson bay. this delivers another blast of cold air and
increasingly wintry conditions. aggressive cold advection, and a
transition from rain back to snow, with perhaps some thunder,
combines for renewed gustiness. flash freeze concerns could arise
monday night as 850 mb temperatures crash 25c over 12 hours, from 8
am to 8 pm. much colder air lingers tuesday with lake effect banding
reaching metro detroit given the cyclonic northwest flow, and lake
superior-michigan connection.

marine...

a seasonably strong low pressure system moves across northern lower
michigan and central lake huron this morning. this system has
produced a strong pressure gradient along with a strong low-level
jet along the southern flank, which will result in a rapid uptick in
wind speeds and gusts through this morning. periods of sustained
winds to gales and gusts to high-end gales will be likely with this
today , along with sustained periods of snow, heavy at times,
especially across central and northern lake huron. the stronger wind
gust potential is expected to be co-located with the aforementioned
low level jet across lake erie, possibly extending up through lake
st. clair, where some isolated gusts up towards storm force will be
possible. confidence at this time remains low regarding. for central
lake huron, a brief lull in gales will be possible directly under
the low pressure system as it passes central lake huron in the late
morning and early afternoon, however, cold air fills in in the wake
of the departing low which will sustain favorable mixing depths and
quickly bring returning gale potential leading into tomorrow
morning. overall, a gale warning remain in effect for all of the
eastern great lakes. high pressure fills in for the later part of
the day saturday and will quickly diminish wind speeds.

a second strong low pressure system is looking likely to impact the
southern great lakes sunday into monday. this will bring increasing
chances to see another round of gales across the great lakes, along
with winter weather. prolonged heavy snow will be possible across
northern or central lake huron, pending the final track of the
system.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 11 am edt this morning for miz047>049-
053>055.

high wind warning until 10 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......sf
aviation.....aa
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.