Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
261
fxus61 kcle 121927
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
227 pm est thu feb 12 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast. a more
prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this
weekend and into next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily light snow showers will persist across portions of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through this evening
with minimal impacts expected.

2) a more prolonged period of above average temperatures will
return this weekend and continue into next week

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

regional satellite and radar observations reveal light snow
showers across portions of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania this afternoon, aided mainly by ice-free areas of
central lake huron and far northern lake erie where ice has
shifted away from the canadian shoreline. high pressure will
gradually build into the region from the west tonight,
introducing drier air and shifting boundary layer flow towards
the west to southwest. any residual light snow showers are
expected to diminish overnight.

.key message 2...

above average temperatures are poised to return on saturday as
a large upper-level ridge begins to take shape across much of
the central and eastern conus. the latest guidance suggests
that this ridge should persist through mid-week while a more
dominant trough gradually moves east across the western conus.
a brief period of widespread rain is likely on wednesday
associated with a lifting warm front, particularly across the
far north and northeast portion of the area. at this point,
total rainfall amounts appear on the lighter side, with only about
a 20 to 40% chance of more than a quarter of an inch.

in terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid-40s for the
weekend will increase further into the upper 40s to lower 50s
into mid-next week. minimal or generally light precipitation is
expected through wednesday which does bode well for a gradual
thawing of ice on area rivers and a melting snowpack.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
mvfr to vfr ceilings are expected with this 18z taf update.
mvfr ceilings this afternoon will give way to vfr conditions
this evening and overnight through friday morning. eri might be
the one exception with holding on to mvfr ceilings into friday
morning. there will be some scattered light lake effect snow
showers through mid afternoon for eri with 5sm light snow at
times. otherwise, there are not other aviation impact concerns
at this time time. winds will start out from the northwest 5 to
12 knots becoming light and variable tonight. winds will become
southerly in nature by friday morning around 5 to 7 knots.

outlook...mostly vfr is expected.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered at this time. warm weather
in the forecast will likely cause some slow deterioration of the
ice later this weekend into next week. winds will remain light
10 knots or less through friday while gradually backing to a
more southwesterly direction. southwest winds will briefly
increase to 10-20kt friday night. mainly light winds expected
this weekend into early next week.

some ice movement to the northeast is possible friday night,
though it is not as confident if the brief period of elevated
southwest winds will be enough to push ice fastened to the
shoreline out into the lake (i.e. ice floes). still, something
to keep in mind. slow deterioration of the ice is likely sunday
into next next week due to a period of milder than average
temperatures. winds will be light and limited precipitation
through at least tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 121846
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
146 pm est thu feb 12 2026

.key messages...

- patchy fog possible friday morning.

- low chances for rain on sunday (20-30%), mainly along and south of
us 30. amounts less than 0.10".

- gradually warmer through next week; highs in the 40s this weekend
and 50s by early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 145 pm est thu feb 12 2026

there are no significant weather concerns in the next 7 days.
winter will continue to take a hiatus with a mostly dry week
ahead and steadily warming temperatures. high pressure is
centered over the great lakes region today, bringing quiet and
dry conditions across our forecast area. mid and high level
clouds can be seen moving through on satellite this afternoon;
these clouds are accompanying a weakening 500mb shortwave diving
south through the area and have kept temperatures in the low to
mid 30s today. skies are expected to mostly to partly clear out
overnight, which sets the stage for another cold night with fog
potential. much like last night, winds are expected to diminish
after sunset. in locations that get mostly clear skies, expect
lows to drop into the mid to upper teens overnight. patchy dense
radiation fog will be possible in areas that clear out as well.
models vary widely again, like last night, with some having no
restrictions to visibility (thus no fog development) and others
showing high probabilities for visibility as low as 0.5 mile or
less (some members of the href). rap forecast sounding depict
low level moisture getting trapped under an inversion friday
morning. confidence is low but patchy fog may develop downwind
of lake michigan, mainly between 06-13z friday. in addition,
with temperatures falling well below freezing overnight, any
snowmelt today will refreeze, creating concerns for black ice.
watch out for patches of black ice on bridges, overpasses,
sidewalks, and secondary roads during the friday morning
commute! lots of sunshine and waa will boost temperatures into
the 40s friday afternoon (low 50s possible south of us 24).

along and south of us 30, 20-30% chances for rain exist late
saturday into sunday. these chances haven`t changed much over the
past 24 to 48 hours; an upper level trough is working its way
onshore in california, with the associated surface low developing
near las vegas, nv. the upper level trough will become more
amplified as it moves across the southern us. in response, the
surface low will deepen and a warm front will lift north through
the mid mississippi river valley. while this front will not
make it far enough north into our area, it will allow for
moisture and warmth from the gulf to be pulled northward over
the weekend. long and medium range model guidance (both ensemble
and deterministic) align well with the southern tier of our
forecast area getting in on some light rain late saturday into
sunday. amounts will be less than a tenth in most places; chose
to go with wpc qpf guidance for sunday.

a strong upper level ridge is then expected to build across the
central and eastern conus into early next week. confidence continues
to increase for well above normal temperatures for the early and
middle parts of next week. the warmest days will likely be
tuesday and wednesday before the ridge flattens out. highs in
the 50s are likely; some locations south of us 24 may even make
a run at 60 degrees! a more active pattern looks to resume by
the middle of next week with chances for rain returning next
wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1223 pm est thu feb 12 2026

a weakening shortwave diving south of the area is expected to do
nothing more than spread high to mid level clouds over the area
today into most of tonight. those mid level clouds will be helped
along by waa ensuing especially across northwest portions of the
area on the backside of a departing surface high pressure area. just
like this morning, perhaps there`s enough breaks in the clouds to
cause radiational cooling and fog in spots, but it won`t be
widespread and therefore comes with less confidence in its
occurrence. cross-over temps and winds are favorable for this at
times during the evening/overnight, but again it`ll depend on cloud
cover and its residence time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 122012
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
312 pm est thu feb 12 2026

.key messages...

- no precipitation expected through the weekend.

- temperatures warm tomorrow through early next week.

&&

.discussion...

weakening flow and increasing subsidence has effectively cleared
the lower stratus from earlier as surface high pressure rolls
through michigan. light northwest flow has allowed for lingering
lake moisture and diurnal stratocu this afternoon which should
scatter out this evening into tonight. limited clouds tonight and
the continued snow pack will help low temperatures tonight drop to
the lower teens.

surface high pressure and 850mb ridge will pass to the east tomorrow
morning bringing a stretch of weak warm advection with deeper
southwest to west lower level flow. temperatures at 850 mb will
gradually warm towards 0c friday and saturday, eventually topping 0c
on sunday. this slight warming trend will bring daytime highs to the
upper 30s and low 40s for tomorrow and saturday with sunday up
towards the mid 40s. guidance continues to point towards dry
conditions holding through the weekend with southeast michigan
residing between northern stream and southern stream systems. the
stronger of the two being the southern stream moving across the gulf
states with the associated northern end of precipitation likely only
reaching the ohio valley. the northern stream looks to hold north of
lake huron.

greater warm advection enters the region early next week as west
coast troughing pushing into the plains with afternoon highs tuesday
possibly achieving the 50 degree mark. the leading ridge should keep
conditions dry through bulk of the monday and tuesday stretch.
increasing moisture will arrive and set the stage for the next
chance at precipitation, possibly as early as tuesday night. greatest
chances likely for wednesday as a low pressure system organizes
along baroclinic zone under left exit region jet dynamics. current
forecast of low pressure track and temperatures would bring rain as
the dominate p-type.

&&

.marine...

an area of high pressure will affect most of the central great lakes
through the weekend. a clipper system is expected to cross the
northern lakes on friday bringing slightly stronger winds and a bit
of snowfall to northern huron. southwest winds of 15-20 knots will
prevail with gusts aob 25 knots. the gradient relaxes friday night,
after the system exits eastward, then trajectories veer wnw saturday
morning. a secondary surface high passes over lower michigan on
saturday leading to weak and variable winds. winds then back
southerly with time. lighter flow continues sunday while a weak
frontal boundary turns weak prevailing flow westerly sunday evening.
a split-flow configuration keeps winds aob 15 knots early next week
with minimal opportunities for precipitation.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1247 pm est thu feb 12 2026

aviation...

remnant stratocu streamers lift and scatter out through the
remainder of the afternoon, disrupted by the dry antecedent airmass
and surface high pressure. as this process occurs, not out of the
question for occasional broken coverage to develop (mainly from mbs-
det) but the general trend is for decreasing coverage. northwest
flow relaxes through the evening before shifting to the southwest
overnight, effectively shutting off any lingering lake moisture
flux. observations have been much drier than modeled moisture fields
today and yesterday, affording a more aggressive and quicker
clearing trend overnight than many models are suggesting. vfr and
light southwest flow prevails friday, with mid-high cloud clipping
the saginaw valley/thumb regions as an upper level disturbance
pivots across lake huron.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. low
tonight and friday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.