Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
710
fxus61 kcle 191750
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
150 pm edt wed aug 19 2026

.what has changed...
pops and qpf have trended further north for tonight, resulting
in an increased risk of heavy rainfall in the southern half of
the area. shower/thunderstorm chances are also increasing for
saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will be possible through tonight, with
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
possible in the southern half of the area tonight.

2) an unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will ever so slowly work south into the region,
then slow its forward progression this afternoon. more
widespread showers and storms are advertised to arrive tonight
as deeper moisture moves into the area. 12z cams have shift a
bit further north with the greatest potential for showers and
storms across the southern half but there still is some
uncertainty. for now, will stick with previous thinking with the
highest qpf axis and moderate to heavy rainfall generally south
of us-30 this evening into early thursday morning as pwats
increase to nearly 2 inches. the main concern overnight will be
training of the showers/storms as they move west to east
parallel to the frontal boundary. soils are saturated in the
southern part of the area after recent heavy rainfall so it
won`t take much to flood if heavy rainfall does materialize in
the local area. wpc has placed our area in a slight ero (level 2
of 4) to account for the northward shift in heavy rainfall
potential.

key message 2...
dry weather is expected as high pressure builds into the region
thursday night through friday, but unsettled weather will
return to the region over the weekend as a series of upper
troughs push across the great lakes. the most widespread showers
and thunderstorms will likely occur saturday afternoon into
saturday evening as the first upper trough moves east across the
area. the region will be in the warm sector so there will be
plenty of moisture and likely sufficient instability to warrant
at least an isolated severe weather threat, but confidence in
the exact timing and placement of storms remains relatively low
this far out. will need to continue to monitor the severe
weather potential in the coming days. additional showers and
storms are likely across ne oh and nw pa as the secondary trough
pushes across the region sunday, although it`s likely that
precip associated with this feature will be lake-enhanced.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
a cold front will stall in the vicinity of us-30 overnight
tonight into thursday. showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during this timeframe, mainly across the southern half
of terminals. have tempos for -shra/-tsra impacts and prob30 for
northern taf sites where confidence in non-vfr impacts from
shra is lower. some isolated br may develop in the wake of the
stalled front leading to ifr/mvfr conditions across southern
terminals through daybreak. vfr will return late thursday
morning through the taf period.

northwest to west winds turn light and variable overnight
tonight. winds shift northerly by thursday morning.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on
saturday. showers and storms will become focused along the
lakeshore areas of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
saturday night. additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible east of i-77 on sunday.

&&

.marine...
north winds 5-10 knots will become light and variable overnight
tonight. winds turn northeasterly at 5-15 knots early thursday
morning before decreasing and turning offshore as high pressure
builds overhead thursday evening. low pressure moves into the
great lakes region on saturday. showers and thunderstorms will
be likely during the afternoon and evening. southwest winds
10-15 knots on saturday will shift northwest by sunday behind a
passing cold front. wave heights may build to 2-4 feet saturday
night into sunday.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...reynolds
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
576
fxus63 kiwx 191806
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
206 pm edt wed aug 19 2026

.key messages...

- chances for showers and storms (30-60 percent) this afternoon
and evening, with the best potential along and south of us 30.
localized flooding and isolated severe weather possible.

- dry conditions with variable cloud cover thursday into friday
before chances for showers and storms return fri night into
saturday, with the best potential (40-60 percent) along and
east of interstate 69 saturday afternoon.

- hazardous swimming conditions are possible for lake mi beaches
along berrien co, mi and la porte county, in this weekend,
especially on sunday. dangerous currents and waves are
possible. monitor the beach forecast for updates.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 127 pm edt wed aug 19 2026

a pretty washed out frontal boundary hanging around over the
far southern portions of our cwa and orientated slightly from
the northwest to east. this boundary will be the focal point for
convection this afternoon and into the evening. with the flow
running pretty parallel to that boundary any storms that do form
will be likely to train over the same areas which may cause some
locally heavy rainfall. with the concern that this will impact
areas that have recently had heavy rainfall and flooding issues
did hoist a flood watch over these locations which was mainly
the counties south of us-30 and this will run until early
thursday morning. there is also the potential for a few of the
storms along the boundary to become strong to severe with
mucape values around 2000 j/kg, low level lapse rates around 6-7
c/km, sr helicity values around 50 m2/s2 or less, and bulk
shear values around 50-60 kts. this leads to the main threats
with these storms being for large hail and strong wind gusts.
spc does have portions of our area under a marginal severe risk.
these storms will continue to push southward tonight which will
bring a return to drier weather conditions overnight tonight
and looks to continue through friday. high temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s will be theme into early next week.

however, a trough dropping south from ontario will begin to
push southeastward into the great lakes area by friday evening
and push an associated cool front across the area from west to
east and will slowly move eastward into saturday evening. the
best potential for rain showers and storms looks to be saturday
afternoon for mainly areas east of i-69 along the front. at this
time any storms look to remain sub-severe. slightly cooler
temperatures arrive in the wake of this boundary for sunday and
monday with a more northerly flow (highs in the mid to upper
70s). this northerly flow will also increase chances for
hazardous beach conditions on lake michigan. will continue to
monitor that situation.

ridging over the central conus begins to build into the region
early next week and will bring a return to slightly warmer
conditions with highs back into the 80s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1236 pm edt wed aug 19 2026

a weak front combined with building diurnal boundary layer
destabilization will allow scattered showers and storms to
develop this afternoon into the early evening hours. best
chances (40-50%) remain at kfwa in the 20-00z window where brief
vis restrictions in heavy rain will be possible. lake boundary
may even touch off isolated storms in the vicinity of ksbn this
afternoon. trending dry and primarily vfr otherwise overnight
into thursday morning outside of some early morning patchy
br/fg.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through thursday morning for inz013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
508
fxus63 kdtx 191949
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
349 pm edt wed aug 19 2026

.key messages...

- non-zero chance of an isolated thundershower near the ohio border
this evening; mainly dry conditions prevail elsewhere.

- shower and thunderstorm chances return friday night through
saturday.

- turning a bit cooler sunday and monday with a drying trend before
warming up toward the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

frontal progress has slowed significantly this morning, becoming
stationary near the ohio border. this convergence zone could support
a few additional showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder) through
the evening hours as pwats and low-level moisture remain marginally
supportive, but subsidence layers and some evidence of capping
inhibit any broader convective response. afternoon kdtx radar has
been relatively quiet, with one exception over the thumb where lake
breeze boundaries have triggered some isolated pulse convective
showers. elsewhere, the post-frontal airmass leads to steady
lowering of dewpoints, from the 60s down into the 50s. the pressure
gradient should stay diffuse, in the absence of a well-defined
surface high pressure center over the great lakes region. flow
should turn northerly tonight and trend toward calm. seasonably cool
temperatures expected overnight with lows dipping into the 50s,
capped to the low side by mixed cloud cover.

the broad upper low centered within resident composite longwave
troughing dislodges eastward thursday, exiting james/hudson bay into
northern quebec. cyclonic flow will persist aloft over southeast
michigan for most of thursday, but low-level anticyclonic influence
becomes more established, building from the eastern plains. expect
standard late august conditions with a dry forecast, highs near 80f,
afternoon dewpoints mixing into the mid (or perhaps low) 50s, and
overnight lows in the upper 50s. the embedded jet streak departs
friday leading to split-flow aloft, albeit within a broader conus
trough configuration. column winds turn zonal from 700 mb upwards,
while pacific shortwave energy works across the high plains toward
lower michigan. low-level jet response appears in the progs,
becoming southwesterly within the lowest 4 kft by midday friday.
this ushers in renewed thetae convergence priming the boundary layer
for the next round of showers and storms. latest model data suggests
precipitation should hold off during the daylight period friday.

the surface low is set to track across northern michigan late friday
and saturday with rain focused along the attendant cold front.
timing differences persist per nwp solutions. a secondary and more
progressive wave will speed across central ontario, phasing with the
lead wave by saturday evening. this leads to a reinforcing shot of
cooler air and shower chances early saturday night. thermal
troughing then fills in by sunday morning, dropping 700 mb
temperatures near/below 0c (omitting the gfs/gefs). cmc/ecmwf even
hint at lake effect (rain) shower potential amidst cold cyclonic
northwest flow. 1020 mb surface ridge builds south from
manitoba/ontario early next week, before return flow arrives and
lifts readings back above normal toward the middle of next week.

&&

.marine...

tonight into tomorrow afternoon a high pressure develops over the
region, thus bringing light varying winds and calm weather. thursday
evening the wind direction is expected to veer from northern to
easterly throughout the evening to overnight hours across all
regions. northerly flow of 10 knots, with gusts up to 15 knots,
possible across all regions late thursday afternoon. gusts up to 20
knots will possible in the bay area in the late evening hours as
well. friday a high pressure system departs our area as a low
pressure system, and associated cold front, approaches the region. a
pressure gradient between systems enhances southeasterly wind flow
all afternoon for northern lake huron and in the evening hours for
the bay area and southern lake huron. moderate winds up to 15 knots,
with gusts up to 20 knots, possible friday evening in lake huron and
bay area. a chance for rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, are
possible for all regions friday evening. active weather continues
through sunday before clearing up to begin the week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt wed aug 19 2026

aviation...

morning low stratus took a while to burn off early in the day, but
has just about completed the transition to 3-5kft scattered deck.
cold front has just about cleared the state into ohio reducing
chances of precipitation this afternoon. lake breeze is touching off
some showers in the eastern thumb, but that is not expected to reach
inland to the taf corridor. high pressure building into the region
tonight will bring drier air helping to clear skies, but looks like
we could deal with some mid to high cloud tonight before trying to
clear out thursday. winds will light and northeasterly for the most
part.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast for the period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......zb/mv/kgk
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.