Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
405
fxus61 kcle 131128
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 am edt mon apr 13 2026

.what has changed...
overall, no major changes needed with this forecast. there are
some concerns of decaying convection moving into the area
tonight, although confidence remains low at this point.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled weather likely as early as tonight and on tuesday
afternoon into tuesday night. some storms may be strong to
severe late tuesday into tuesday night.

2) an active weather pattern will present multiple chances for
rain and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

3) above average temperatures are expected to persist for the
next several days.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
unsettled weather is expected through late tuesday. there`s
some potential for isolated strong storms tonight, although a
greater risk exists for tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.

warm/moist southwest flow is expected across the area over the
next couple of days as a warm front continues to lift away from
the cwa and settles over the upper midwest/great lakes.
scattered/periodic light rain showers are likely across the area
through the daytime hours today. it will also be quite gusty
with southwest wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph likely this morning
through this afternoon. by this evening, a weakening complex of
storms may approach from the west or northwest, although there
is very low confidence in the timing, placement, and coverage of
convection due to weak forcing and uncertainty in instability
this far southeast. the best coverage of showers/storms will be
closer to a frontal boundary to the north/northwest of the cwa.
nonetheless, if storms do manage to move into the area
overnight, elevated instability and a llj over the region
support low-end threat of some isolated gusty winds and hail,
primarily across nw oh which is clipped by a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) of severe weather.

attention then turns to tuesday afternoon into tuesday night as
somewhat better upper level support arrives from the west in
response to a deepening trough over the plains. the local area
will remain in the warm sector throughout the day tuesday and
expect mlcape values of 1500 to as high as 2500 j/kg across
much of the area with a strong llj will moving into the region
late in the day and into the night. effective bulk shear and 0-6
km shear values will reach about 30 to 40 knots in the northern
half of the area as better winds aloft move into the region
tuesday evening, which would support a line or broken line of
strong thunderstorms. all hazards will be on the table, although
damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns.
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across
northern ohio with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across the
remainder of the cwa. there are several limiting factors that
could throw a wrench into things, however. first, any scattered
showers or storms early in the day or convective debris from
monday night showers/storms could keep clouds around and limit
destabilization. second, forcing will be somewhat weak with the
best forcing to the north of the local area. third, a capping
inversion will likely be in place and this will need to be
broken for any stronger convection to develop. and fourth, the
evening/night timing of convection would be diurnally
unfavorable, resulting in a more stable atmosphere (or perhaps
more elevated instability) by the time convection moves into
the cwa. long story short, there`s high confidence in scattered
showers and thunderstorms tuesday into tuesday night, although
confidence in the timing and likelihood of severe weather is
quite low at this point and will likely rely on mesoscale
features that have not yet been resolved.

key message 2...
periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the
majority of the week as a frontal boundary wavers over the
upper great lakes and upper midwest and the local area remains
in the warm sector. the timing of any showers/storms will rely
on the timing of weak disturbances that ripple across the
frontal boundary, but as of now it appears that pops will peak
on wednesday as low pressure lifts northeast into the upper
midwest. confidence in any stronger convection is low at the
moment. precipitable water values will be unseasonably high at
1.2 to 1.5 inches wednesday into thursday and there may be a
brief period with a swath of higher pwats across the northern
part of the area on wednesday. this could result in periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall rates in showers/storms which could
lead to isolated instances of flooding and rises on the most
responsive creeks and streams. fortunately, the recent stretch
of drier weather has allowed antecedent conditions to trend a
bit drier, which will help mitigate the onset of flooding unless
repeated rounds of heavy rain move over the same
locations/basins. a brief period of drier weather is likely as
the aforementioned frontal boundary finally pushes south of the
area, but rain chances will quickly return as the next system
approaches from the west late friday into saturday.

key message 3...
persistent warm air advection will result in temperatures that
are well above normal through the first half of the weekend.
widespread highs in the 70s are expected through saturday with
periods of lower 80s likely across portions of the area. lows
will also be well above normal in the 50s and 60s. for
reference, average high temperatures for this time of year are
generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
gusty southwest winds will persist across terminals through this
evening. highest wind gusts of 30-35 knots will likely occur
this morning into early this afternoon. winds briefly diminish
this evening, but anticipate another period of elevated westerly
to southwesterly winds tuesday morning. in terms of rain chances,
expecting isolated to scattered showers to push across
terminals throughout the day today. anticipate for cigs/vis to
remain vfr though slightly higher probabilities of mvfr
ceilings remain at terminals along the i-75 corridor.

the confidence in the forecast decreases substantially as we
head into the evening hours tonight. current suite of hi-res
guidance hint at remnant convection entering western terminals
~00z/tue from lower michigan/indiana. however, there remains a
lot of uncertainty with exact timing and intensity of this area
of thunderstorms by the time they enter ohio late this evening.
for now, have timed out with prob30 groups any tsra impacts to
terminals from west to east. future taf packages will fine tune
this timeframe as the forecast becomes clearer.

outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are expected in periodic
showers and thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds remain elevated at 20-25 knots early this
morning before wind speeds diminish from west to east through
this afternoon. small craft advisory for the western basin will
expire at 10 am this morning with the remainder of the lake
expiring at 4 pm this afternoon. southerly to southwesterly
winds 12-18 knots will remain in place through the end of the
week as multiple systems move across the region. periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances will be present through
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
473
fxus63 kiwx 131517 cca
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1117 am edt mon apr 13 2026

.key messages...

- unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the work week with
highs in the 70s and even some 80s at times.

- there is a slight risk of severe storms today mainly from mid to
late afternoon through this evening. isolated large hail and
isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threats if storms
develop.

- the active period of weather continues tuesday through
thursday with continued periodic higher chances of showers and
storms. there is a slight risk of severe storms tuesday late
afternoon through the early overnight hours which represents
the period of greatest severe weather potential. all severe
hazards are possible including the potential of some locally
heavy rainfall. confidence in severe weather is lower for
wednesday.

&&

.update...
issued at 935 am edt mon apr 13 2026

while the overall forecast remains unchanged at the moment, we
will be closely monitoring a mid level wave currently moving ne
through missouri with a small area of showers and storms.
several models are hinting at development later this afternoon
(after 21z) of at least isolated storms in association with this
feature and an associated eml and steep lapse rates. degree of
destabilization is still in question with pockets of clearing
ahead of the wave possibly limiting the threat. based on the
threat, spc has expanded the slight risk for today into our area
(west of i-69 and north of us-24) for a hail/wind threat. this
is by no means a slam dunk, but will need to watch trends into
this afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt mon apr 13 2026

the combination of a mid level short wave and broad advective
forcing has sustained rain showers from west to east across the
area this morning. despite the decent moisture transport this
morning, the strength of the low level thermal ridge has allowed
for large enough low level dew point depressions to provide
some enhancement to surface wind gusts in association with
these showers. fairly strong background flow (~40 knots in
lowest gate of kiwx vwp data) has also mixed down fairly
efficiently with these showers with some instances of 40-50 mph
wind gusts. this potential should gradually wane over next few
hours. higher res guidance does indicate some renewed convective
development on southern periphery of departing mid level wave,
and where secondary low level theta-e ridge starts to nose into
north central in next few hours. this could yield a cluster of
showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms across northern
in/northwest oh early this morning through daybreak.

additional showers and storms are possible today, and the storm
prediction center has continued a marginal risk of severe storms for
most of the forecast area. some lull in scattered/showers storms is
expected by mid morning, but will need to watch for possibility of
weak mid level wave across kansas as it reaches the western great
lakes this evening. a renewed surge of stronger low level theta-e
advection is expected to accompany this short wave with
strongest advective forcing expected across northeast il. the
approach of this central plains wave will also mark the leading
edge of stronger mid level lapse rates. while synoptic forcing
does not appear strong today, destabilizing trends in
thermodynamic environment with the steeper mid level lapse rates
and the presence of the more distinct low/mid level theta-e
boundary could provide a focus for at least an isolated severe
threat late this afternoon into this evening. while greatest
threat for isolated severe today may be north of us 30 as mid
level speed max shifts across southern great lakes, hard to
discount any location across forecast area given theta-e
boundary will likely be hanging back a bit more to the south
from northeast illinois into the local area. mlcapes on the
order of 1500-2000 j/kg, modest deep layer shear of 30 to 40
knots, and steep low level lapse rates could pose some threat of
isolated damaging wind gusts in addition to large hail threat
with steep mid level lapse rates. some lull in thunder chances
is expected early overnight, but may need to watch for
possibility of remnants of stronger great lakes convection to
propagate southward to the southern great lakes toward daybreak
tuesday. these storms could have some strong wind gusts
persisting early tuesday morning but confidence in this
evolution is low.

tuesday/tuesday night still appears to be the period of greatest
concern for scattered severe storms and most of the forecast
area remains in an spc day 2 slight risk for severe storms. the
forecast challenge for this event remains on convective
initiation portion of the event. stronger mid/upper level
forcing will likely be hanging back to the west across the
rockies as primary upper level wave begins to shear eastward.
best forcing mechanisms for convective initiation will be at
nose of stronger low level flow and strong low level moisture
convergence across nw il/sw wi/ne ia. will need to see if there
is any remnant leftover boundary from early tuesday great lakes
convection that help overcome some surface based cin for more of
an isolated storm development locally during the early/mid
afternoon hours. the expectation is still that discrete storm
development across mid ms rvr valley should tend to congeal
across western/southern great lakes later evening tuesday with
strong component of shear parallel to the boundary. greatest
potential severe risks still appear to be large hail 1-2" in
diameter given very steep mid level lapse rates and damaging
wind gusts, with greatest potential of hail across the northwest
which could be involved in the earlier stages of the event mid-
late evening. some potential of heavy rainfall will also have
to be monitored as outflow emanating from this convection may
become parallel to environmental shear. a strengthening
southwest llj south feeding into these potential storms/outflow
should also weaken upwind propagation vectors yielding potential
of training convection.

wednesday`s severe potential will be conditional on convective
evolution tuesday night, and if more mature convective system can
develop tuesday night an effective boundary may get pushed across
southern half of the forecast area during the day. instability
magnitudes should be more questionable on wednesday and stronger
synoptic forcing will still likely be lagging back to the west. some
isolated severe potential may evolve (mainly wind), but confidence
is lower in comparison to late tuesday.

the primary upper level wave will finally top the ridge across the
great lakes on thursday, but slow evolution of this feature will
keep thunder chances going into thursday. some indications in
guidance that better kinematic fields on thursday could be eastward
displaced from better instability hanging back to the
west/southwest, so any organized severe threat appears to be low at
this time.

after brief low level caa late thursday, quick rebound of mid level
heights and rapid onset of low level waa will keep the much above
normal temps going through friday (highs possibly back near 80 by
friday). no significant changes made to temp forecast through
friday, with confidence in continued much above normal temperatures
and daily highs in the 70s. medium range guidance continues to
struggle with ensemble/deterministic consensus on timing
frontal passage with next stronger longwave trough next weekend,
but an overall trend to least a brief shot of cooler
temperatures still appears on track for late weekend/early next
week, along with a potential of more showers/storms first half
of weekend with cold frontal passage.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 630 am edt mon apr 13 2026

a cluster of showers with a few embedded storms will depart
into north central ohio to begin this period with just a brief
shower possible at kfwa through daybreak. moist advection has
resulted in mvfr cigs overspreading northwest indiana with a
potential of a period of cigs below 2k feet affecting kfwa this
morning. gradual increased mixing late morning/early afternoon
should take conditions back to vfr. for this afternoon,
attention will turn to another mid level short wave kicking out
of northern missouri with a mid level speed max expected to nose
into northwest indiana mid afternoon. stronger low/mid level
theta-e advective forcing downstream of this wave should build
across northeast il which could yield additional scattered storm
development. it will become increasingly unstable this
afternoon as sfc warming and steeper mid level lapse rates
overspreading the region provide a more favorable environment
for storms. given northern indiana`s proximity to the theta-e
gradient, and some indications of the mid level speed max, will
add a prob30 tsra group this afternoon/early evening for
ksbn/kfwa. additional storms may drop southeast into the
southern great lakes late tonight with a residual outflow
boundary potentially providing focus for additional
development/propagation. confidence in showers and storms late
this period is on the low side however. gusty southwest winds
will continue today, with some gusts into the 20 to 25 knot
range through much of the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
751
fxus63 kdtx 130844
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
444 am edt mon apr 13 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- an active pattern continues brining periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms tonight through thursday.

- there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms tonight into
tuesday morning.

- there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tuesday night.

- locally heavy rainfall potential also increases during the mid
week period.

&&

.aviation...

areas of rain showers will depart east of the terminals around or
before 12z, marked by the departure of an upper level short wave.
subsidence in the wake of this wave will result in a deep inversion,
with model guidance suggesting a rapidly expanding mvfr based
stratus deck impacting the region in its wake as low level moisture
advects under this inversion. daytime heating will slowly lift the
inversion base and will result in a subsequent lifting of ceiling
heights during the afternoon. this will lead to increasing
probabilities for vfr based ceilings, especially after 18z.
thunderstorm chances will increase tonight as conditions will be
favorable for upstream convection to move across southern michigan.

dtw/d21 convection... there is increased chances for clusters of
thunderstorms to move across the metro airspace tonight, mainly
after 00z. timing remains highly uncertain at this time.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* low for thunderstorms tonight into early monday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 311 am edt mon apr 13 2026

discussion...

longwave trough over the west coast and ridging over the se conus
continue to remain firmly in place to start the week keeping the
central conus up into the midwest/great lakes in a pattern of deep
layer southwesterly flow. this will result in warmer than normal
temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s (outside of locations
along lake huron shoreline), gusty daytime winds, daily rain
chances, strong to severe storms at times, and a risk of flooding.
while consistency in the longwave pattern adds some confidence to
the forecast this week, inconsistencies in the short range models
resolving mesoscale features (like potential upstream mcs
development) still leaves questions about precip timing and qpf
placement. convective nature to most of the precip also brings into
question model qpf output which likely will fall on the low side
where the storms line up.

helping to dictate placement of showers and storms will be a warm
front extending eastward from a surface low setting up over the
central/northern plains. the front will largely be positioned over
northern mi with typical fluctuations due to convective complexes.
this paints central and northern mi with the highest qpf and highest
confidence of these periods of rain/storms as the mid level waves
pass over that region as well. farther south over most of se mi,
we`ll have waves of storms pass over with periods of dry in between.
i`ll highlight higher confidence time windows tied to mid level
features, but there will be likely be convective complexes that will
be handled with shorter fused forecast updates.

for today, spc has all of lower mi in a marginal risk for severe
storms. early morning rain should be ending soon after sunrise this
morning with warm and dry conditions most of the day. there are 2
windows for potential showers/storms mainly later this evening and
tonight. first from 23-03z as the potential convection firing over
eastern iowa rides the elevated instability gradient into southern
mi. the canadian hires models are most bullish with bringing
widespread stronger convection across the area. most of the rest of
the model suite advertises more scattered activity but something to
watch none-the-less. spc outlook likely more for the later round of
storms as a surface low riding the warm front with the nose of the
next stronger llj after 05z. strong mid level lapse rates and mucape
up around 1000 j/kg for both events with strong capping from waa so
elevated storms would be most likely with a hail threat, but there
is a wind threat as well.

by tuesday the longwave trough will have crossed the rockies which
will continue eastward passing through the great lakes late
thursday. several more shortwaves will pass through the region
during this time. things are continuing to look like tuesday evening
could get quiet active locally though as the overnight low crossing
northern mi strengthens the front stalled across mid mi while the
next strong llj around 50 knots surges into the region. cape will
rise greater than 2000 j/kg with models soundings showing the
instability become surface based. very strong lapse rates will be
present with strong shear. timing looks most likely after 00z but
carrying through much of the night with an west-east orientation
allowing for training storms. some models are targeting mid mi for
the highest qpf while others suggest earlier convection will push an
outflow boundary down to near m59 which will have additional storms
focusing down there. spc day2 outlook has most of lower mi in a
slight risk designation with all hazards possible. in addition to
the severe chances, we are in a ero marginal risk so rainfall
amounts will need to be monitored.

storm chances continue wed and thurs as the main upper level trough
passes over the region. friday into saturday looks dry as shortwave
ridging builds overhead but the next longwave trough is already
working across the conus and will bring storm chances back to the
forecast saturday and sunday. strong cold front looks to pass
through the region sunday dropping highs back into the 50s with lows
in the 30s.

marine...

small craft advisories remain in effect this morning for the
southern lake huron nearshores, in addition to lake st. clair and
western lake erie. waves are responding to stronger gradient winds,
in excess of 20 knots. a few gusts to gales remain possible early
this morning until a 65+ knot low-level jet axis exits the central
great lakes. the main area of concern amidst the constricted
southwest flow remains saginaw bay, funneling/converging off-shore,
but also near the straits. conditions quickly improve this evening
after shortwave ridging moves in. several additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the week due to a
series of troughs, low pressure systems, and fronts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until noon edt today for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until noon edt today for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.