Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
709 am edt tue sep 8 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast package.

&&

.key messages...
1) cold front bring showers/storms late wednesday into wednesday night
with a potential for severe weather.

2) high pressure for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
no major changes to the timing of convection associated with a cold
front moving in form the northwest later wednesday. upper
level/surface low to track eastward from northern ontario through
james bay and into northern quebec with an extensive cold front
cutting through the great lakes. today marks a transition into
higher dewpoints and increasing temperatures as return flow feeds
the moisture into the region as high pressure that has been over the
region shifts eastward. instability should not be much of an issue
given the higher dewpoints while a layer of drier/lower rh air
around 625mb and 0-6km shear increasing to 40-50kts ahead of the
cold front brings a wind gust potential in what will probably be
line segments of storms forming and moving through the cwa beginning
late wednesday afternoon. pwat values also very high over 2 inches,
but storms should be progressive in terms of forward motion through
the region, so while heavy downpours can be expected, they should be
of relatively short duration. storms exit to the southeast by around
06z wednesday night with clearing in the wake.

key message 2...
models hinting at a developing and trailing trough axis aloft
thursday which could serve to hold up the forward progress of the
cold front due to a weak surface low forming along the front as a
result. the result is pops hanging on in the southern zones into
thursday before finally exiting by roughly 18z. high pressure will
be building into the great lakes from the west at this time, and
will return to dry conditions for the end of the week and heading
into the weekend. temperatures knocked back 10-15 degrees with the
passage of the cold front will be slightly below normal for friday
before gradual warming also returns for the weekend. with high
pressure now off the new england coast for saturday and sunday,
southerly flow will reintroduce low end pops for the area, but most
locations likely staying dry during this period. another frontal
system approaches late sunday into sunday night.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with mainly vfr cirrus to
persist through the taf period. low chance of a few isolated to
scattered showers along the i-71 corridor this afternoon so
have introduced a window of vcsh at mfd, though not anticipating
any non-vfr concerns. winds at most sites will increase out of
the south to southeast later this morning and afternoon, 5 to 8
knots, while a lake breeze at cle/eri will usher in north to
northeast flow of 6 to 8 knots this afternoon. winds at all taf
sites will shift further towards the south overnight, 5 to 7
knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday into thursday. some storms could contain gusty winds
wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
offshore winds this morning less than 10kts become east
northeasterly this afternoon in a brief period of a lake breeze
where wave heights will linger around the 1ft mark/light chop.
southerly winds increase to 15kts tonight, becoming west
southwesterly ahead of a cold front wednesday 15-25kts.
cleveland east will see wave heights 3-4ft parallel to the
shoreline for the nearshore zones in these stronger west
southwesterly winds, and a small craft advisory may be needed.
storms expected ahead of the cold front as it moves through.
winds northwesterly in the wake of the cold front wednesday
night with wave heights 1-3ft thursday and thursday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...kahn
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
550 am edt tue sep 8 2026

.key messages...

- slightly warmer and more humid this afternoon with high
temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.

- there is a 40% to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms
wednesday through early thursday morning.

- breaking waves and currents are expected at southeast lake
michigan beaches on thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue sep 8 2026

high pressure remains in place today, currently centered over pa,
while plenty of high clouds are filtering in from low pressure over
the dakotas. the combination of return southerly flow off the
aformentioned high pressure along with 500-mb height increasing
slightly will bring high temperatures to the low-and-mid 80s, while
dew points creep into the 70s; especially away from the lake.

increasing clouds overnight as low pressure wraps up over interior
ontario and a trailing cold front approaches. by sunrise, the chance
of rain increases as well, through preceding mid-level dry air may
erode some of this wednesday morning rainfall. we remain under a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms wednesday afternoon. the
picture has not changed much as bubbling afternoon heat and
instability along and south of the us 24 corridor will accommodate
thunderstorms, yet upper-level flow remains well removed to the
north and improving shear lags behind the best instability.
certainly not a widespread severe weather event and thunderstorms
will likely struggle to gain elevation due to incredibly small
lapse rates.

additionally, for wednesday, depending on the extend of
morning cloud cover along the incoming front, there ought to be a
fairly notable temperature gradient from south to north where
southern counties may creep toward 90s, yet northern areas will be
confined to the low-80s. the existing temperature forecast is on the
hot-side of guidance and will be highly dependent on aformentioned
cloud cover.

some showers may linger into early thursday morning, but drying out
otherwise and not as hot for the afternoon. a progressive upper-air
pattern takes shape for the remainder of the week, suppressing an
upper-level ridge to our south, and paving the way for additional
rain chances (20-30%) later in the coming weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 548 am edt tue sep 8 2026

existing tafs remain in great shape for one more cycle. high
pressure remains in place during the near-term with wind
becoming southerly near midday. just outside this period is an
increasing chance for -shra while wind continues to veer
southwesterly.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
549 am edt tue sep 8 2026

.key messages...

- a little warmer today.

- showers with a chance of thunderstorms tonight and wednesday.

- dry thursday and friday.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions carry though tonight for most locations as high
pressure tries to hold over the area in advance of a cold front that
will sweep through wednesday. high clouds over the area will
gradually lower as the front approaches and low/mid level moisture
advection ramps up. band of showers with possible thunderstorms will
work into mid mi after midnight and then will slowly work southeast
across the area. thunder chances are too low with little confidence
in coverage to include in the tafs. put an initial group in for rain
to note the most likely starting time for the sites, with increasing
chances toward morning and into wednesday. winds will start off calm
but emerge out of the southeast this morning and then veer to the
southwest overnight becoming gusty on wednesday.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast tonight or
tuesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening.

* low for thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue sep 8 2026

discussion...

a compact mid level low will track from southern saskatchewan to
northern ontario today while the mid level ridge axis over lower mi
exits east of the region. east-southeasterly low level wind fields
across se mi early this morning will veer toward the south as a
broad low to mid level anticyclone departs east. this will
correspond to an influx of warmer air into the forecast area today.
increased cloud cover through the day associated with moisture
advection around 850mb and increasing mid/high clouds from the west
will result in overall increasing cloud trends, likely capping
afternoon highs to the lower 80s.

latest water vapor imagery across north america this morning shows a
plume of moisture off the pacific advecting into the upper midwest
while gulf moisture in the lower levels feeds into this same region.
this is leading to a pool of very deep moisture; latest spc meso
analysis indicates precipitable water values of 1.7 to 2.1 inches
extending across the central plains to upper midwest. this deep layer
moist axis will advance across lower mi tonight as the ridge axis
flattens and the mean flow upstream turns more westerly. the
corresponding increase in mid level moisture will support increasing
shower chances during the night, mainly across the saginaw valley and
thumb.

forecast strengthening of an upper jet streak across the northern
lakes wednesday will support an expanding region of upper divergence
and weak mid level frontal forcing across northern and central lower
mi. the forcing within the deep moist axis will sustain rain chances
through wednesday as the mid level frontal boundary sinks southward
into srn lower mi. one point of uncertainty to the wednesday forecast
involves the remnants of a potential convective complex expected to
develop over ern iowa/nrn illinois tonight. an mcv from this feature
would certainly enhance precip chances across srn mi if it were to
materialize. a deeper/slower mid level wave may also support a better
influx of instability into the far southern portions of the forecast
area wed afternoon, supported by a few high res solutions. this in
turn has allowed wed cape probabilities to trend upward south of the
i-94 corridor. the spc day2 convective outlook has thus nudged the
area of marginal risk into monroe county. given the degree of deep
layer moisture overhead wednesday, if deep convection does
materialize, intense rainfall rates will be of concern.

there is strong agreement that the deep layer moist axis and mid
level frontal boundary will remain progressive as mid level west-
northwest flow expands across the northern great lakes by thursday,
advecting a much drier airmass across se mi. model soundings
indicate subtle cold air advection will be offset by steep low level
lapse rates to boost thurs highs well into the 70s. mid level
ridging and associated surface high pressure will then build across
the region, supporting dry conditions to end the work week.

marine...

high pressure drifts over the region through this morning
maintaining benign marine conditions. south turning southwesterly
winds strengthen tonight into wednesday as seasonably strong low
pressure system tracks across southern canada into hudson bay. while
a gust or two two could reach entry-level gales over central lake
huron, winds are expected to peak around 30kts. return of a humid
airmass back to the region will support shower and thunderstorm
chances for much of the day wednesday before the attendant cold
front crosses late evening. moderate northwesterly flow follows for
thursday however only a glancing shot of cold advection and a
rapidly diminishing gradient has high pressure builds caps winds aob
30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...sc
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.