Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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540
fxus61 kcle 261747
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1247 pm est fri dec 26 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will build off into northeastern canada today as a low
pressure system enters from the west and tracks across the northern
ohio valley. on saturday, high pressure will briefly build in as a
low pressure system will move across the great lakes region sunday
into monday dragging a strong cold front through.

&&

.near term /through saturday/...
ridging across the region begins to deamplify as a shortwave trough
move into the great lakes region during the day today. at the
surface, high pressure builds off into northeastern canada while a
low pressure system takes shape across the mid-mississippi valley.
this low will enter the region this morning with a weak warm front
drifting northward into the northern ohio valley. there will be low
level warm air advecting over the warm front into northern ohio
ahead of the low and bringing precipitation with it. with the
surface, and just above the surface, still with temperatures less
than 30 degrees, the potential for freezing precipitation remains a
concern for northwestern ohio, northeastern ohio, and northwestern
pennsylvania. temperatures within central and north-central ohio
will have warmed enough at the surface to transition any
freezing/frozen precipitation over to rain by mid morning. for
northwestern ohio to include toledo, they remain under a winter
weather advisory through noon today with ice accumulations less than
a tenth of an inch. this precipitation will be quick to change over
to rain with the increase in temperatures throughout the day.

as for northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania, the majority
of the counties remain in a winter weather advisory for ice
accumulation with erie and crawford counties in pennsylvania under
an ice storm warning. the forecast has remain fairly consistent over
the past few model runs, the main differences are that the surface
low as trended a touch further north and has weaken slightly. with
these changes, it brings in some complications in ice accumulation
for those areas. if the low continues with the more northerly track,
this will allow for warmer air to reach further north into the
region and limit the amount of ice accumulation and precipitation
will transition over to rain quicker. though, kept a similar train
of thought as the previous forecast and kept surface temperatures
down with wet-bulbing expected. with the weakening of this system,
any dry pockets within the column will saturate quicker and result
in more precipitation accumulation. though, with the current
forecast and those factors in mind, northwestern pennsylvania is
still expected to receive between a tenth to three tenths of an inch
of ice accumulation through friday evening.

for any of the areas in between the advisories, there may be pockets
of freezing precipitation during the morning to mid-morning hours.
this will be fairly short lived though as temperatures are expected
to rise enough for precipitation to fall as rain. also, can`t rule
out a possible rumble of thunder or two in north-central ohio as
there is some instability with the low as it moves through. behind
the low, plenty of low-level dry air will move in quickly and any
precipitation that is falling will end by midnight for counties out
east. ridging will build in briefly throughout the day on saturday
with dry weather expected. temperatures will reach into the mid to
upper 30s near the lake shore and into the low 40s further
south.

&&

.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
upper level ridging will continue to push eastward through saturday
night as an upper level trough begins to develop over the northern
great plains. this will support a fairly strong surface low pressure
system that will deepen over the upper mississippi valley and move
eastward over the northern great lakes through monday. this low will
drag a strong cold front early monday morning with widespread
precipitation starting as rain then transitioning to snow throughout
the day. temperatures will be at their warmest early monday and fall
throughout the day with strong northwesterly flow behind the low
dropping 850mb temperatures down to around -14c by monday night.
with this cold air advecting in to the region, it will set up a
round of lake effect snow showers across the snowbelts. depending on
how the flow sets up behind the low will determine the main impacts.
at this time, the highest pops will be in northeastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania as flow favors a potential lake huron
connection. winds across the region on monday will also be elevated
as the surface low departs off to the northeast and the pressure
gradient tightens. will need to monitor this as there may be a
period on monday that wind gusts will be close to advisory criteria
along the lakeshore with the west to northwesterly flow.

temperatures for sunday will warm up into the upper 40s for
northwestern pennsylvania and into the mid to upper 50s for much of
ohio. as mentioned for monday, temperatures will be at their warmest
early in the morning ahead of the cold front and precipitation and
cool throughout the day down into the upper teens to low 20s by
monday night.

&&

.long term /tuesday through friday/...
the pattern to start the long term favors continued lake effect snow
showers across northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.
there may be a brief break in the showers late on tuesday as flow
shifts, though will shift back as a weak surface low pressure system
moves southeast through the region on wednesday. afterwards, the
forecast becomes less certain and confidence decreases in lake effect
snow continuing. a few long range models do depict an upper level
ridge setting up over the southwestern conus and an upper level
trough over eastern canada. this pattern is similar to the one
experienced the first half of december, and as a result, temperatures
through the long term will be trending to be below average to start
the new year.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
a band of rain/freezing rain continues across ne oh and nw pa
this afternoon, allowing for the last bits of vfr to fall into
the mvfr and ifr range with precipitation at keri and kyng.
there will still be a window of an hour or two where fzra
remains possible, but conditions should transition to all rain
by 20z. elsewhere, behind the main bands of precipitation,
conditions are deteriorating to lifr with fog and low stratus
filling in ahead of a low pressure system and warm front.
conditions will be their worst this afternoon ahead of the warm
front. there will some marginal improvement behind the front and
surface low but suspect that a mix of ifr/lifr will continue
into tonight and likely into saturday. some ifr may dissipate in
nw oh by the end of the taf period, but any improvement would be
to just mvfr. winds through the period will be variable with the
low moving through the region. southerly flow will be favored
ahead of the low with west to northwest flow behind the low.
some gusts over 20 kts are possible this afternoon ahead of the
main system.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings will continue on saturday and
saturday night. a low pressure system will target the region on
sunday and monday. non-vfr will be expected with rain and
potentially some embedded thunder on sunday. rain transitions
to snow with a strong cold front on monday. westerly wind gusts
of 30 to 40 knots are possible with and behind the front on
monday. non-vfr expected in snow showers and low ceilings for ne
oh and nw pa for monday night through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
easterly to southeasterly winds 10-18 knots are expected through
this afternoon as low pressure glides south of lake erie through
tonight. winds behind the passing low ease to 10-12 knots while
becoming northerly by tonight. a brief ridge of high pressure will
build across the eastern lakes on saturday leading to generally
easterly to southeasterly winds 10-15 knots through sunday morning.

attention turns to sunday night through monday as a strong cold
front will push east across lake erie leading to a window of
hazardous marine conditions. ahead of the cold front southerly to
southwesterly winds increase to 15-25 knots during the day on
sunday. westerly winds increase to 25-35 knots on monday behind the
cold front with winds possibly reaching 40 knots, mainly across the
central and eastern basins. will continue to monitor trends in the
forecast in the event that gales are needed. westerly winds remain
elevated between 20-30 knots through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
ohz013-014-022-023-033.
pa...winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for paz001.
ice storm warning until 1 am est saturday for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...23
near term...23
short term...23
long term...23
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1252 pm est fri dec 26 2025

.key messages...
- light freezing rain for a few hours this morning may cause icy
roads mainly north of highway 6.

- a strong cold front will bring very cold wind chills near zero
at times monday and tuesday.

- very cold to start 2026 with highs only near 25 thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 408 am est fri dec 26 2025

a warm front was moving northeast across northern indiana and
northwest ohio early this morning. a small area of light
freezing rain was associated with the front. overall impacts
appear to be relatively minor as overnight temperatures were
slowing warming to near freezing north of the front and around
40 degrees from pld (portland) to mcx (monticello). icy
conditions may linger close to noon in the hillsdale area before
the temperature finally rises above freezing there.

otherwise, mild weather is ahead for sunday with highs near 60
degrees over most areas. in additional to the mild weather
sunday, the spc has placed areas mostly south of highway 30 in a
marginal risk for severe storms. the environment elements include
low capes but very high shear values. bufkit 0-6km shear maxes
include 70 knots. the strong cold front moving into a moist
airmass (especially for late december standards) may spawn a
line of marginally severe storms that will race east over the
forecast area. damaging wind gusts are possible with the
stronger low-topped storms.

cold weather will prevail to end 2025 and to start 2026. wind
chill indices will dip to around zero frequently tuesday through
next week friday. light snow is likely from tuesday through
wednesday; however, impacts should be limited and snow amounts
should be relatively light.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1252 pm est fri dec 26 2025


the surface low was positioned over ne in this aftn with the
trailing front extending back toward wrn in. iwx radar has
shown the precip to have exited the area with some residual
light drizzle at kfwa. a strong low level inversion has created
for lows cigs with reduced vsbys in -dz and/or br at both
terminal sites this aftn. llws will occur at kfwa ahead of
frontal passage mid aftn. expect there will be some improvement
in vsbys and rising cigs and then lower again to ifr after
midnight at both termianl sites.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...mf

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 261430
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
930 am est fri dec 26 2025

.key messages...

- winter weather advisory is in effect for all of se mi until 4 pm
est today. ice accumulations between a tenth to just below a quarter-
inch expected. hazardous travel on untreated surfaces will be
likely, in addition to isolated/scattered power outages.

- the potential exists for heavy rainfall sunday as a strong winter
system wraps up over the great lakes. strong northwest winds appear
likely late sunday night and monday behind an arctic front bringing
snow showers.

- below normal temperatures for the middle of next week.

&&

.update...

drier low level conditions proving more formable thus far this
morning for areas south of i-69, lending to more variable conditions
with pockets of light freezing rain/drizle as a broad zone of low
level warm air advection works against dry low level conditions. mid
morning radar and observational analysis paired with latest traffic
data indicate a more impactful response ongoing from m-46 northward
thus far, owing to both greater duration and magnitude of freezing
rain and/or a wintry mix along the elevated frontal slope. back edge
of the stronger ascent set to sweep west to east through all
locations through roughly 1 pm. this occurs as cooling mid level
temperatures associated with the inbound governing upper wave
provides a notable reduction in lapse rates, with projectable mucape
upwards of 500 j/kg. upstream radar trends confirm this strong
convective element, maintaining the expection for a brief window of
higher precipitation rates to materialize over the next few hours.
greatest potential for icing remains in the saginaw area, but all
locations certainly susceptible to further deterioration of
conditions as temperatures firmly hold at/below freezing through this
time. steady decline in precip potential from west to east after
17z. no changes planned to the going advisory headline at this stage,
with an expiration targeted for 4 pm.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 542 am est fri dec 26 2025

aviation...

a progressive upper short wave will drive a plume of warm moist air
across se mi this morning atop a shallow layer of sub freezing air.
this will result in widespread freezing rain. regional radar
suggests this will arrive at the terminals by 12z. the peak period
of ascent will be focused largely in the 13z to 18z time frame. the
departure of the stronger forcing will coincide with temperatures
rising above freezing, leading to a transition to rain and/or
drizzle early to mid afternoon. the arrival of weak elevated
instability in the 15z to 18z time frame indicates the potential for
some embedded convective elements. aggressive low level moisture
advection this morning will result in steadily lowering ceiling
heights, with ifr and lifr conditions expected this afternoon. the
development of a deepening low level inversion in the wake of the
associated sfc low late this afternoon will likely drop ample low
clouds in place into tonight; mvfr and/or ifr.

for dtw...the peak period of icing accumulation is expected between
12z and 16z before air temperatures rise above freezing. isolated
thunderstorms are possible across the airspace, mainly during the
early afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 feet today and tonight.

* high for freezing rain this morning, high for all rain this
afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms today.

prev discussion...
issued at 424 am est fri dec 26 2025

discussion...

the low pressure system now located over eastern iowa remains on
track to progress into southern michigan through the morning and
afternoon hours, which will produce widespread freezing rain,
periodically mixed in with sleet at times across the northern tri-
cities and northern thumb. surface temperatures now range between
27-32f with spc mesoanalysis highlighting h850 temperatures ranging
between 1-6c, maintains freezing rain as the dominant p-type for
this event. precipitation to initially expand across se mi through
the mid- morning hours initially with the increasing surge of low-
level moisture through h850 and more favorable moist isentropic
ascent in the mid-level, expanding through h300 as the nose of the
jet stream expands into the region. initial precipitation will remain
a little more scattered in nature as top-down saturation commences,
any initial freezing drizzle or rain observed prior to sunrise will
be capable of produce a glaze of ice accumulation on untreated
surfaces given the favorable dry surface conditions and nocturnal
start time.

rapid expansion of freezing rain footprint across se mi will
commence around to just after sunrise along a secondary and stronger
surge of moisture, coincident with the arrival of low pressure over
southwest lower. the bulk of the ice accretion will come with this
secondary surge of moisture mainly between the hours of 12z-17z,
with all precipitation tapering off from west to east between 17-
20z. a couple of trends noted with the new overnight model
data...qpf amounts continued to trend upward, with storm total qpf
ranging between .40-.60". hi-res output continues to highlight the
potential for highly localized qpf totals to or in excess of
75" along the low-level circulation convergent axis from h875 to
h775. predictability remains low regarding where any of these
mesoscale dominant features will setup as hi-res output highlights
anywhere between i-94 up towards or just north of i-69 as a
possibility. additionally, mid-level lapse rates aoa 6c/km along
with pockets of elevated instability bring chances for thunderstorm
development with activity which brings more potential for
localized higher qpf potential.

in terms of ice-to-liquid ratio/ice accretion potential, a few
caveats to note -- higher convective precipitation rates can lead to
higher runoff potential, significantly lowering ilr. the advent of
the aforementioned moisture surface also increases both the maxt and
depth of the warm layer. forecasted soundings show elevated maxt
values of 7-9c up through the m59 corridor during peak qpf
potential, with warm noses ranging anywhere between 5000-7000ft.
these warmer drops will have negative impacts on icing accumulation
totals, but confidence is low regarding the exact degree this has on
the final outcome. despite elevated qpf potential, fram output
(which does not factor in droplet temperatures) holds ice
accumulation between .10" to just under .25". as noted in the prior
evening update, strong consideration was given to a short fused ice
storm warning for portions of se mi, but at present time will retain
a high-end winter weather advisory as confidence remains low for any
widespread power outages or tree damage. locations along and between
m59 through i-69 and up into saginaw/tuscola county have the highest
likelihood for ice accumulations that near or peak above two-tenths
of an inch, especially through the irish hills where the nose of
warm air aloft is not as prominent and surface temps are slightly
cooler. up through the northern tri-cities to northern thumb, some
sleet will be possible with cooler near surface conditions. overall,
expect hazardous travel on untreated surfaces along with isolated to
scattered power outages.

some transition to rain will be possible through the metro region in
the late morning to early afternoon as temperatures peak above
freezing before all precipitation end from west to east 17-21z. low-
level moisture holds up through 4kft in the evening and overnight
hours, bringing some mist or patchy drizzle into the night. high
pressure builds in saturday morning, bringing dry conditions through
the day, with the next low pressure system targeting michigan sunday
morning through monday morning. this dynamic system brings high
likelihood for precipitation with main p-type as rain as 850
temperatures peak to or above 8c. rainfall totals above a half-inch
are looking increasingly likely with this system. a strong arctic
front moves in in the wake of the low which would bring a transition
to snow and would generate lake effect potential through the day on
monday along with windy conditions with possibly wind gusts to or in
excess of 40 mph.

marine...

a compact low pressure system tracks across the southern great lakes
today, producing a tightened pressure gradient and gusty east to
southeast wind through the day. sustained winds of 15 to 25 kt are
expected with gusts to 30 kt over lake huron. small craft advisories
remain in effect through tonight for the nearshore waters from outer
saginaw bay to port huron due to onshore wave action over 4 feet.
the system will also produce widespread wintry precip including
snow, sleet, and freezing rain. a ridge of high pressure extending
from southern quebec will dominate conditions on saturday with
lighter east to southeast wind. a stronger low pressure system then
tracks through the region sunday night, bringing another round of
widespread precipitation. a period of northwest gales, snow showers,
and freezing spray is becoming increasingly likely monday morning
and afternoon as the system ushers cold arctic air back into the
region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......mr
aviation.....sc
discussion...am
marine.......tf


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