Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
814 pm edt mon may 4 2026

.what has changed...

6:09 pm edt may 4th update...

periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through daybreak tuesday, which warranted a slight
increase in pop`s. also increased forecast low temperatures
slightly for overnight tonight since increasing cloud cover and
persistent low-level warm/moist air advection from the gulf are
expected to limit nocturnal cooling through daybreak tuesday
morning more so than the previous forecast depicted.

&&

.key messages...
1) severe weather possible this afternoon into the late evening,
though thunderstorms are expected to be isolated to scattered.

2) widespread showers and thunderstorms expected tuesday into
wednesday. nuisance flooding possible with minor river flooding
possible across the region.

3) cooler temperatures expected the second half of the week with
scatttered frost possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through tuesday morning as weak to moderate cape,
including elevated cape, is released by the following:
moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes aloft,
enhanced moist isentropic ascent aloft associated with the
development of a sw`erly llj at/near 850 mb between about
midnight and daybreak tuesday morning; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes accompanying
the shortwave troughs, established downshear outflow boundaries,
and along a cold front that will enter far-northwestern portions
of our cwa by late tuesday morning. surface dew points were
mainly in the mid 40`s to lower 50`s f as of about 6 pm edt, but
will climb to the lower to mid 50`s f during the course of this
evening as greater low-level moisture, originating over the
gulf, continues to overspread our region fairly slowly. spc has
highlighted a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the area
west of a roughly sandusky to tiffin, oh line, while the rest of
our oh counties are in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
trends in forecast model soundings continue to depict moderate
effective bulk shear, fairly-steep mid-level lapse rates near
7c/km, steep low-level lapse rates stemming from recent diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer, moderate dcape, and
weak to moderate boundary layer cape will contribute to an
environment favorable for multicell storms and perhaps a few
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing marginally-severe
hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts in northern oh. the
severe thunderstorm threat should end late this evening, in
response to boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling.
the potential for severe storms in nw pa still appears to be
very limited since slower low-level moisture return from the
gulf should result in less cape, including elevated cape, there
through this evening.

key message 2...

a cold front will enter the region tuesday morning and there will be
widespread showers and thunderstorms that afternoon into the
evening. there will be a brief dry period late monday night into
tuesday morning, but rain will return from the west mid day
tomorrow. the front will be slowly moving to the east and may cause
some nuisance flooding and possible river rises across the region.
qpf for tuesday through wednesday morning will is around 0.75-1.50"
with amounts east of the i-71 corridor over an inch possible. the
cold front will move out to the east late tuesday night and rain
will slowly end from west to east across the region.

key message 3...

behind the cold front on wednesday, temperatures will drop to below
average through the end of the week. global models have 850
temperatures dropping down to around -2c by friday morning. thursday
and friday morning will be the coolest of the week, with
temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 30s with some
locations down into the lower 30s. frost potential will be possible
those days, though with lingering cloud cover, may be more
isolated.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
aloft, wsw`erly to sw`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 00z/tues. at the surface, a cold front should
sweep se`ward through our area between ~13z/tues and ~00z/wed.
ahead of the front, a high pressure ridge exits generally
e`ward while behind the front, a separate ridge builds from the
northern great plains and vicinity. s`erly to sw`erly regional
surface winds around 10 to 20 knots are expected ahead of the
cold front. these winds will gust up to about 20 to 30 knots at
times, especially before ~00:30z/tues and after ~13z/tues. the
cold front passage and subsequent building ridge will cause our
regional surface winds to veer to w`erly and then toward n`erly
and ease to around 5 to 10 knots. note: a wsw`erly low-level
jet of about 50 knots, focused at/near 850 mb (i.e. ~5kft msl),
is expected to develop over our region this evening before
dissipating around 12z/tues. this jet may result in periodic
low-level wind shear in the lowest 2kft agl.

primarily vfr are expected for the time being. however, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the cold front, and associated with the aforementioned
disturbances aloft and low-level jet, this evening into tues.
brief mvfr to lifr are expected with showers and especially
thunderstorms. thunderstorms may produce brief and erratic
surface wind gusts up to 40 knots at times, especially before
~02z/tues and then late tues morning through early evening,
ahead of the cold front. behind the surface portion of the cold
front, widespread mvfr to ifr ceilings and light to moderate
rain associated with the upper-reaches of the front will impact
our region, especially tues afternoon through 00z/wed. mainly
mvfr to ifr visibility is expected with this widespread rain,
which should be accompanied by mist development.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected
tuesday evening through this saturday. occasional thunderstorms
are possible tuesday evening and again friday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.marine...
southwest winds 10 to 20 knots are expected through early
tuesday morning. marginal small craft advisory conditions may
periodically occur this evening and tonight, however confidence
is too low to warrant a headline at this point. gusty winds are
possible in any thunderstorms that move over the lake this
evening into tonight. winds will shift to the northwest and
diminish below 10 knots tuesday afternoon with variable winds 10
knots or less expected tuesday evening through wednesday night.
west/northwest winds under 15 knots will develop wednesday
through thursday with southwest winds developing friday into
early weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/23
aviation...jaszka
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
727 pm edt mon may 4 2026

.key messages...

- there is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms this
evening and tonight (5pm to 1am edt). expect damaging winds to
60 mph, hail up to around 1 inch in diameter with severe
storms. an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. heavy rain
and flooding is possible into the overnight hours.

- more widespread rain is expected tuesday, with chances for
non- severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. highs will be in
the 50s and 60s, warmest along and south of us 24.

- chances for rain wednesday and friday, with isolated
thunderstorms possible on friday afternoon. highs will be in
the 50s, low 60s. lows will be in the mid to upper 30s
wednesday night, and the 40s thursday and friday night.

&&

.update...
issued at 725 pm edt mon may 4 2026

sct convection currently moving into the area ahead of a very
slow-moving cold front. surface dewpoints struggling to get out
of the low 50s given deep mixing but steep midlevel lapse rates
still yielding 1000-1500 j/kg mlcape. effective shear values are
relatively modest around 25-30 kts and in the absence of good
forcing for ascent, storms are struggling to organize. that will
continue to be the case for the next few hours. some isolated 1"
hail and damaging winds are still possible in the w/nw zones
where slightly better moisture/instability reside and sun
remains up a bit longer. these storms will steadily weaken as
they move east during the late evening though with the loss of
daytime heating. severe threat should diminish after 03z as
storms approach the i-69 corridor.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 311 pm edt mon may 4 2026

this evening-tonight`s marginal risk for severe weather was upgraded
to a slight risk for portions of the area. confidence in severe
weather occurring is medium. there are some uncertainties with
regards to the start time of the event. much of the guidance
initiates storms closest to 7-8 pm edt, but there are still several
models that begin closer to 5-6 pm edt. a lot will depend on the
available moisture-which could limit development initially (well
mixed boundary layer from full sun earlier today). a decent cu field
has developed for areas west or just along i 69 as of this writing.
dewpoints are in the mid-upper 40s and low 50s, driest further north
in mi/nw ohio. this is lower than what the earlier timed models
suggest (nam/rap)--values are closer in line to the hrrr. if the
hrrr is right, development may be closer to 8 pm edt when the better
moisture arrives (still only mid 50s) with strengthening of the llj.

main focus for convection will be a mid-level wave riding up from
the southwest this evening (aforementioned "warm-front-like" feature
in prev. afd)-then the cold front that drops from nw to se through
the overnight. the main threat with any severe storms would be
damaging wind gusts given inverted-v type soundings. large hail is
also possible with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear and mid level lapse
rates around 7c/km (could be slightly higher further south of us 30
this evening per the nam). heavy rain and ponding of water on the
roads is a threat in any thunderstorms, however overnight there
could be some minor flooding in areas that receive repeated storm
activity (from both the earlier wave ahead of the cold front and
then the cold front itself).

spc did add a 2 percent tornado risk with the increased low level
shear (decent hodographs)...however it`s conditional on moisture
profiles as well (which is our greatest uncertainty). if we get the
deeper moisture we could see lcl`s in the 500-1000 m range (more
favorable for tor risk). per their discussion, they will re-
evaluate the moisture quality for the tor risk.

otherwise, cold front continues eastward through tuesday, stalling
near us 24, with surface low riding up along/southeast of it through
the afternoon. rain will be fairly widespread (especially along this
corridor), with chances for a few thunderstorms (non-severe). as the
surface low drifts e-se through wednesday, expect dwindling chances.
dry conditions thu, then chances for rain and a few storms return
fri into the weekend. highs wed-fri will be in the 50s, low 60s.
overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 30s wed night (coldest
along/north of i 80-90) with light winds-so there could be some
frost potential. warmer sat-sun with highs in the mid-upper 60s, low
70s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 725 pm edt mon may 4 2026

cold front and associated clusters of storms currently
approaching the area. these clusters will impact ksbn during
the next 4 hours and kfwa roughly 03-06z. however, instability
will be waning by the time they reach kfwa and they could weaken
to just showers. there will be a brief lull in rain late tonight
but additional rain is likely on tuesday as this front stalls
over the region. a few additional storms are possible at kfwa on
tuesday but chances are low as is confidence in timing so will
hold off on mentioning for now. some mvfr ceilings also likely
at kfwa tuesday morning as cooler air filters into the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

update...agd
discussion...mcd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
708 pm edt mon may 4 2026

.key messages...

- a chance of thunderstorms this evening into tonight. much of the
forecast area is in a marginal or slight risk designation for severe
weather with large hail, strong wind gusts, and a brief weak tornado
potential threats.

- low confidence exists in the timing and duration of rain tuesday
and wednesday.

- much cooler temperatures return tuesday and last through the end
of the week. a frost advisory or freeze warning may be needed.

&&

.aviation...

cluster of showers and thunderstorms evident on radar moving east-
northeast will move through the detroit airspace this evening. to
the north, little evidence to suggest convective development, with
conditions marked by a well mixed environment supporting gusty
southwest wind and a more limited coverage of high based diurnal cu
thru late evening. an inbound cold front then sags southeast across
the region during the early morning hours. this will maintain
potential for shower production, with some embedded thunderstorms
possible. window for some degree of lower cloud development will
exist along and immediately behind the cold late tonight, affording
brief cigs at low vfr to borderline mvfr. wind shift to
northwesterly with the frontal passage. additional pockets of light
showers expected tuesday along the lingering elevated frontal zone.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms to lift across dtw through 01-
02z. upstream radar and observational trends indicate potential for
gusts to push 40 knots with brief heavy rainfall and hail with these
thunderstorms. some interludes of ifr to lifr visibility
restrictions possible as heavy activity moves through. additional
showers are expected overnight into tuesday morning as a cold front
tracks through, some of which could include embedded thunder. winds
will shift to the northwest mid-to-late tuesday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for thunderstorms this evening. low tonight.

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening and tonight;
medium tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 328 pm edt mon may 4 2026

discussion...

well mixed southwesterly flow has developed over all of southeast
michigan this afternoon with 2pm wind gusts at a few of the asos
sites reaching and exceeding 45 mph. surface moisture has mixed out
over much of the northern cwa with many observing platforms
reporting relative humidity between 19-25 percent. with dry
southwest flow persisting this afternoon and with collaboration
considerations, decided to go with a red flag warning in effect
until 7pm this evening.

atypical, in-phase squeezing event of northern stream canadian
trough and southwestern united states ridge will result in a
strengthening baroclinic zone over portions of lower michigan and
northern ohio river valley by tuesday. two boundaries reflect this
competing geopotential height pattern: the first is the deep cold
front progressing through the lake superior basin, the second is a
thetae/cape gradient that will emerge and lift into far southern
portions of southeast michigan between 21-03z this evening.

very subtle forcing mechanism at work across the forecast area this
afternoon with a lack of upper level jet dynamics and synoptic lift
locally. differential loss of the anticyclonic flow trajectories over
southeast michigan is expected to allow for a region of height
falls, inducing northward moisture transport of 900mb thetae
content. remnant midlevel dry adiabatic lapse rates with help from
the evening transition will result in the development of mixed layer
cape exceeding 1000 j/kg with the cape gradient lifting northward
through metro detroit. cam output is quite bullish on convective
initiation/development along the boundary 22-01z. 0-6mb bulk shear
of 30 to 35 knots will be adequate for storm organization, although
hiresolution data shows little signal for storm right movement. cape
gradient boundary does become parallel to the 850-300mb mean flow
suggesting a potential for training of activity. therefore, large
hail and localized heavy rainfall are the main threats this evening.
forecast soundings do suggest higher static stability developing
with the loss of daytime heating from the surface to 4.0 kft agl
suggesting strong wind gusts may be more difficult to observe outside
of any organized cold pool or forward propagation. the threat of a
tornado appears to be very low although a boundary is overhead with
0-1km srh that reaches 150 m2/s2.

the canadian trough will encroach on the area tonight driving the
deep cold front through the area. differences exist on how generous
the coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be overnight
highlighted by the latest forecast with pops at generally less than
60%. models show a dead zone of both the 700 and 850mb frontogenesis
over southeast michigan but with deep southwest flow the potential
exists for upstream activity to track through the area. mucape of
250-500 j/kg in place ahead of the cold may support some small hail
between 02-05z. the latest swody1 has areas south and west of a line
from chesaning to grosse pointe designated as a marginal risk for
severe weather and a slight risk across southern lenawee and monroe
counties.

uncertainty exists with regards to precipitation timing and coverage
tuesday midday through late wednesday morning. low confidence arises
from stark differences in the occurrence and subsequent timing of a
wave of low pressure set to track northeastward along the baroclinic
zone. latest data of system relative flow on isentropic surfaces
supports the surface cold front clearing the area 15-18z with
lingering lower column rh overhead. cam simulated z supports
decaying nocturnal showers pushing through metro detroit southward
between 15-21z tuesday which is supported by likely pops. the
solution space then diverges greatly wednesday with the nam the most
bullish on an organized low pressure circulation tracking along the
ohio river. this would bring a fairly lengthy period of midlevel
isentropic ascent to the southern cwa wednesday. the current
forecast is very lean on pops for the wednesday period.

low geopotential heights are forecasted to persist over the central
great lakes through the end of the week and upcoming weekend.
lowered midlevel temperatures will likely support typical afternoon
instability shower chances. the biggest item will likely be the need
for frost and/or freeze headlines particularly thursday morning.
some moderation in temperatures to near normal is possible by this
weekend but the forecast will likely be determined by the amount of
clouds over the region.

marine...

breezy southwest winds prevail across the area this afternoon,
though the warmer air mass overriding the cooler great lakes waters
has allowed for a more stable environment with wind gusts mostly
remaining below 25 knots. fetch across the saginaw bay remains
favorable for locally stronger winds, so have maintained the ongoing
small craft advisory through the evening hours. isolated to
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible later
this afternoon and evening, most favorable across lake erie and lake
st. clair. any stronger storm development will be capable of
producing small hail and wind gusts of 34 knots or stronger.

a cold front dropping south across the western half of lake superior
this afternoon will gradually work south across the region late
tonight and into tuesday morning. winds from the north briefly
dominant behind the cold front, but then lessen in speed and become
more variable during the day tuesday. tuesday night through
thursday, winds will back from the northeast to north and eventually
from the west, as another area of low pressure organizes south of
the region and moves over the northeast.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......ja

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.