Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
717 am edt wed jul 22 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) anomalously-cool air mass arrives today with lake- effect
showers possible.

3) temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
much cooler weather will arrive behind the cold front today as
850 mb temperatures fall to around 6c. starting to see some lake
effect clouds develop downwind of lake erie early this morning,
with a few lake effect rain showers possible across the
snowbelt later this morning and afternoon. even with the lake-
induced cape resulting from the near ~21c 850 mb/water
temperature difference, coverage should remain relatively
limited with a 700 mb inversion and dry air aloft in place.
slightly higher moisture arriving off of lake huron may result
in better coverage of rain showers across portions of northwest
pennsylvania today. given the chilly air mass in place and
cloud cover, highs today may struggle to reach the 70 mark in
some spots.

key message 2...
a large upper-level ridge across the western and central conus
will gradually expand further east into the great lakes by
friday into the weekend, resulting in temperatures to return
near or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 80s. however,
a series of upper-level troughs across hudson bay appear poised
to block the eastward progression of the ridge. this pattern
would favor increasing rain chances across the area by early
next week (late sunday through tuesday), with the potential for
some organized stronger thunderstorms given the supportive mid
and upper-level environment. will continue to monitor trends
over the next several days.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
dry weather is expected at all taf sites with mvfr ceilings
likely in lake effect clouds at ne oh/nw pa terminals through
late this morning. ceilings will improve to vfr by late morning
or early afternoon. winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to
12 knots with periodic gusts to 20 to 25 knots early this
morning with winds diminishing to 10 knots or less at most
terminals by afternoon. light and variable winds are expected
after 00z thursday, although northwest winds to 5 to 10 knots
will likely persist at keri through the overnight hours.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms on sunday.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected through much of
this morning before gradually diminishing late this morning into
the afternoon. small craft advisories remain in place from the
islands east to ripley ny through this evening, although latest
guidance suggests that these headlines may end as early as this
afternoon as waves quickly subside with the diminishing onshore
flow. from there, variable and relatively light winds (around 10 knots
or less) are expected through at least saturday. southwest
winds may increase by a few knots late saturday into sunday.

an unseasonably cool air mass will be in place over lake erie
today into thursday. there is a slight chance of waterspouts in
lake effect showers today and a slight chance in any land breeze
showers early thursday morning. conditions will be marginal so
confidence is somewhat low at this point, but will keep an eye
on waterspout potential during future updates.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz010>012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
552 am edt wed jul 22 2026

.key messages...

- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake michigan
beaches today through tonight. stay out of the water and off
of piers!

- dry, cooler, and less humid conditions expected through midweek.
gradually warmer into the weekend.

- the next chances for rain/storms arrive sunday into monday
(20-40% chances).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 157 am edt wed jul 22 2026

as high pressure builds over the midwest and into the great lakes, a
stretch of several days of cooler than normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity starts today! this surface high pressure will
allow for northerly winds to usher in cooler air; highs are only
expected to be in the mid 70s with lows dropping into the low to mid
50s! this pattern change will feel refreshing and is a welcome
reprieve from the heat and humidity earlier this month. lows in the
50s, while unusual from what we have been experiencing, are not that
uncommon in july. we typically average about 5 nights with lows
below 60 degrees in july. the coolest night is expected tonight into
thursday morning, with widespread lows in the mid 50s. it is
possible that some of our rural, low lying areas get to 50 or below.
nbm probabilities currently have about a 15% chance of this tonight,
but chances are less than 5% for fort wayne and south bend, where
lows will be a touch higher, likely closer to 52-53 degrees. record
lows are safe this week as many of them are in the mid 40s. while
not record breaking, we will certainly welcome these cooler, crisp
nights with lower humidity!

although the weather is quiet, the cold front that came through
yesterday has stirred up southern lake michigan. a beach hazards
statement and corresponding high swim risk will be in effect for la
porte county, in and berrien county, mi today and tonight. northerly
wind gusts to 25 kts, waves of 5 to 9 feet, and strong currents will
create life-threatening conditions for swimmers and boaters. strong
rip, structural, and longshore currents are expected today. strong
longshore and structural currents will be especially present on the
north side of piers. stay out of the water and off of piers!
conditions will be much calmer on thursday and into the weekend with
low swim risks each day.

gradually warmer into the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper
80s by sunday. moisture increases too, which means humidity likely
goes up as the weekend progresses. a frontal system brings the next
chances for rain/storms sunday into monday, although confidence is
uncertain on exact timing. our forecast area will be on the
periphery of a large upper level ridge to our west, so if we can get
sufficient instability and moisture, we may be able to get
storms that ride the edge of the ridge. severe weather is not
out of the question but with high spread in model guidance,
confidence is very low for sunday/monday at this time.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 550 am edt wed jul 22 2026

no major changes needed for the 12z taf forecast period. scattered
to mostly cloudy skies persist across northwest indiana
downwind of lake michigan with ceilings around 5000ft. ceilings
are still vfr for now, but may fluctuate between high end mvfr
to low end vfr near ksbn this morning as more clouds advect in.
have opted to continue with a vfr forecast with 3500 to 5000 ft
ceilings. winds will continue to come from the north today,
building to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts near the lake
(including at ksbn) later this afternoon and evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through thursday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
653 am edt wed jul 22 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with temperatures dipping below average during the
mid to late week period.

- next chance at precipitation saturday night into sunday.

&&

.aviation...

post frontal northwest winds has ushered in a cooler and drier
airmass into southeast michigan that will bring prevailing vfr
conditions through the day. wind this morning have gusted to around
20 knots and expect similar gusts through the remainder of the
morning. cool northwest flow will likely support a sct/bkn vfr
cumulus field by this afternoon. lighter winds develop this evening
while holding generally out of the northwest with a decreasing cloud
field into tonight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through the taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 323 am edt wed jul 22 2026

discussion...

deep h3 to h5(sub 560dam) troughing is in place across all of the
great lakes this morning with surface extension of cold front now
pushing southward through portions of central in/oh. much cooler
conditions in this setup as 850mb temperatures currently range
between +4c to +6c areawide. surface dewpoints have easily dropped
into the 40s for many areas and temperatures at daybreak are
expected to be in the lower 50s. projected absolute vorticity charts
support another vorticity maximum, collocated with composite trough
axis, digging into the lake huron between 18-00z today. northerly
gradient with legitimate cold pool aloft over ontario results in
fresh isentropic downglide and cold advection over the area today.
gusty well mixed northwest surface winds of 10 to 25 mph today.
forecast soundings support high static stability in the 6.0 to 16.0
kft agl yielding dry conditions but with some boundary layer cumulus
this afternoon.

flow trajectories rapidly evolve to anticylonic tonight as strong
surface high pressure builds into wisconsin. main narrative tonight
is very chill nightitme temperatures with the potential for some
areas outside of the detroit urban heat island to dip into the 40s.
moderating and warming airmass between 4.0 and 8.0 kft agl will dry
out any lingering low-mid relative humidity for the daytime
thursday. very comfortable weather will exist thu with temperatures
in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the lower 50s. progressively
warmer friday and sunday with incremental increases in surface
humidity. latest indications are surface ridge axis will continue
to hold through southeast michigan.

jet exit region with anticyclonically wave break pushes into lower
michigan for sunday. models suggest shortwave energy cascading in
vicinity of the southeast michigan with return of warm advection.
persistent northwest flow could lead to a more active period early
next week with regards to precipitation. current forecasts suggest
highs in the 80s early next week.

marine...

high pressure moves into the area after our cold front has fully
passed the great lakes region, resulting in some dry weather, and
strong cold air advection that will encompass the area for the next
couple of days. winds will be relatively gusty and coming out of the
northwest through today then subsiding on thursday. small craft
advisories remain in effect for near shore areas of lake huron
around the thumb and saginaw bay. beach hazard statements are in
effect around the thumb throughout today as well. calmer conditions
continue for the rest of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through this evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-
441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...cb
marine.......to/mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.