Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
302 am est thu nov 12 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast this morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) after rain exits to the east through this morning, another
round of widespread showers is likely this afternoon/evening.

2) lake effect showers take over tonight into the weekend as
western portions of the area dry out. snow will mix in at times
late tonight through saturday, especially away inland. localized
snow accumulations are possible friday night into saturday.

3) dry weather and slowly warming up into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a compact area of low pressure is tracking through the upper
ohio valley early this morning, and will exit to the east
today. a quick-moving batch of rain accompanying this low
pressure is with us early this morning, but will exit to the
east-southeast through midday. aside from some northeast flow
lake effect showers which are already taking shape off the
western and central basin early this morning, there will be a
brief lull in rain across the area around midday.

this lull won`t last long, as a sharp inverted trough axis
behind the departing low drops south-southwest across the area
this afternoon and evening as an embedded shortwave aloft also
crosses the region. this will bring another more widespread
batch of showers to the area this afternoon and evening. it will
be cold and unstable enough for lake enhancement, and some
showers will likely have a convective component...especially
west and southwest of cleveland. much of the area is expected
to see another 0.10-0.25" of rain during the day today (between
the exiting morning rain and afternoon/evening rain). locations
just west and southwest of cleveland will see more due to lake
enhancement. most regional and convective allowing models have a
localized area of 0.50-1.00" of rain where lake enhancement
is most prominent and the forecast has higher amounts in the
vicinity of erie/huron/lorain/richland/ashland counties today,
as the flow direction, increasing instability, and synoptic
support from the trough suggest that there will be decent lake
enhancement in that area.

temperatures will generally settle into the mid to upper 40s by
sunrise this morning and will rise no more than a couple/few
degrees. if anything, temperatures will backslide this afternoon
as the trough brings rain and increased cold air advection.
northerly wind gusts will also increase to 20-30 mph late this
afternoon and evening just behind the passage of the trough.

key message 2...
we transition to a lake effect rain/snow shower setup to end the
week and start the weekend. there should be a relatively drier
period with limited lake effect for several hours tonight as we
see a brief period of subsidence, drier low-level air, and shear
behind this evening`s trough. winds are expected to become
better aligned out of a north or slightly east of due north
direction heading into friday as deeper moisture returns,
allowing lake effect to re-invigorate. once lake effect starts
flaring back up into friday it will continue in some capacity
through most of the weekend. conditions will be most favorable
for lake effect late tonight through friday night as the heart
of the upper trough moves overhead. 500mb temperatures bottom
out near -30c friday into friday night over the region, which
over lake waters ranging from 12-15c provides strong and deep
lake-induced instability. the mid-levels will gradually begin to
dry and warm on saturday, though that probably won`t begin to
significantly curtail the intensity of lake effect until
saturday night and sunday. lingering minor lake effect may not
fully end until monday across far northeast oh/northwest pa, as
that`s when the surface high finally builds into the region.

in terms of where lake effect will go, this will generally be a
shorter fetch event with north-northeast winds tonight into
friday gradually shifting north-northwest into friday night and
more northwesterly for the bulk of the weekend. a band of precip
with connection to lake huron will be the main feature and
should take shape tonight into friday well west of cleveland...
possibly coming onshore as far west as ottawa county and
extending towards tiffin initially. this connection is expected
to drift east into the cleveland and akron metro area later
friday into friday night, and then into the more traditional
primary snowbelt of far northeast oh for the weekend. there is
also a signal on multiple models for convergence along the far
northeastern lakeshore to focus a more organized band into
eastern erie/crawford counties in pa friday into friday evening
as well. outside of these potentially more focused bands
activity will generally be less intense and not very organized,
though showers will occur at times, especially in the higher
terrain directly downwind of the lake. given the precip will be
lake-driven by friday and into the weekend precipitation
chances will trend to very low values across our northwest ohio
and central ohio counties. a few showers may occur across
northwest oh on friday beneath the heart of the trough aloft.
some very low precip chances are also in the forecast farther
west on saturday, as a shortwave rotating around the backside of
the departing upper trough may bring just enough lift.

portions of the area are likely to see their first wintry precip
of the season over the next couple of days. 850mb temperatures
fall to -5 to -7c early friday through early saturday, before
moderating a couple of degrees for the rest of the weekend.
1000-500mb thickness values fall to an impressive <528dam friday
and friday night. this is cold enough to support snow, though
the issue remains the boundary layer temperatures given a lack
of arctic influence and modification from the warmer than
average great lake waters. low temperatures will struggle to dip
to freezing or below (outside of the highest terrain in
northwest pa) where flow off the lake and cloudiness occurs.
the overall expectation remains that snow or graupel will mix in
at times away from the immediate lakeshore from late tonight/
early friday through at least saturday morning, with the higher
terrain of the snowbelt perhaps still seeing some flakes saturday
night into early sunday. precipitation will tend to be mainly
rain near the lakeshore and during the afternoon hours. however,
with deep cold air aloft and plenty of instability friday
through early saturday the lake effect will be quite convective,
which can cause snow or graupel to mix in through the daylight
hours on friday and even near the lakeshore at times.

in terms of any accumulations, we will primarily need to
monitor the lake huron connection into parts of northeastern
ohio late friday into early saturday. in most areas, the warm
ground and "mild" boundary layer will preclude accumulations or
keep them minimal and slushy. if a focused band of heavier lake
effect can focus on an area for a period of time between late
friday and early saturday there is potential for more legitimate
accumulations on a localized basis, perhaps on the order of a
couple of slushy inches in a narrow swath. there is uncertainty
regarding both if this scenario occurs at all and where it may
occur, so the current forecast just has a broad area of very
light accumulations in the higher elevations of interior
northeast oh. otherwise, some light and slushy accumulations
can`t be entirely ruled out during the day friday if a more
organized band of precip can impact the higher terrain east of
i-79 in pa. beyond that, the higher terrain east of i-79 will
likely see lows near or a bit below freezing friday night into
saturday morning, so even a lighter snow could accumulate a bit
there into early saturday. the airmass trends slightly milder
for saturday night and sunday as lake effect likely loses
intensity, so the odds of any accumulations saturday night into
sunday appear lower than they are friday night.

highs on friday will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, with
temperatures trending a degree or two warmer each day saturday
and sunday but staying in the 40s. overnight lows will generally
be in the low to mid 30s across northeast oh and northwest pa
downwind of the lake through the weekend. locations farther
southwest of the lake effect will likely see some sub-freezing
lows, especially where clouds are able to clear more readily.

key message 3...
while it remains a bit uncertain when the last of the lake
effect completely ends, there`s high confidence in several days
of dry, tranquil weather into next week as high pressure takes
control. temperatures will gradually moderate into next week.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
rain, moderate at times, continues to expand northeast across
the area as low pressure tracks across southern ohio. in the
heavier showers visibilities can drop to mvfr at times and can
not rule out brief ifr but that is not expected to be the
prevailing. ceilings will lower to mvfr through 12z and remain
there through the duration of the taf period. rain will become
more showery during the afternoon and timing will need to be
adjusted. another trough will swing south across the area
between 20-00z bringing another round of more organized showers.
some locations may see a couple hour period of ifr behind this
trough on thursday evening.

winds will start out as northeasterly at 10 knots or less, back
to northwesterly by thursday morning with some gusts to 20 knots
at times during the afternoon. winds will set up out of the
north behind the trough passage during the afternoon and evening
with some locations gusting between 20-30 knots, especially near
the lake.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend. some wet snow
showers may also be possible friday night into saturday morning.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds 15-20kt early this morning will increase to
20-30kt this afternoon and evening as a sharp trough drops
across the lake. this feature will focus lake enhanced showers
as it drops across the lake, and waterspouts may be possible for
a brief window with the trough passage. waves will peak at 5 to
8 feet this afternoon and evening, largest east of the islands.
high-end small craft advisories are in effect for all nearshore
waters of lake erie through at least early friday. winds shift
more northwesterly for friday and the weekend. speeds may
briefly dip to 10-15 knots friday morning, before increasing to
15-25kt later friday into saturday. winds should gradually
weaken sunday into early next week as high pressure builds in.
we will likely need another round of small craft advisories for
portions of the lake friday night and saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est friday for lez142-143-148-
149.
small craft advisory until 1 pm est friday for lez144>147.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...10
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
237 am est thu nov 12 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect rain showers develop today with a mix of lake
effect rain and snow showers later tonight into friday
morning. some light accumulations are possibly on grassy
areas, mainly west of us route 35, with the greater potential
of over 1 inch accumulations closer to the indiana/illinois
stateline into far northwest indiana.

- additional lake effect snow showers are possible for southwest lower
michigan into far northwest indiana late friday night into
saturday morning, but confidence in any travel impacts is low.

- below normal temperatures today through the weekend followed
by slowly moderating temperatures into the mid and upper 50s
by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 am est thu nov 12 2026

the vigorous upper level short wave which brought the rain and
isolated thunderstorms yesterday is departing the area across ohio.
some deformation type forced precip continues across nw ohio
early this morning with fairly tight low/mid level thermal
packing on backside of this system. this precip should
wane/depart to the east over the next few hours. meanwhile,
precip has transitioned to cellular lake effect rain showers
across southwest lower michigan into northwest indiana as cold
air builds south behind this wave. some respectable depth to
lake induced instability is noted in latest gfs/rap forecast
soundings even this morning, but low level wet bulbs should keep
precip types primarily in the form of rain. will be monitoring
the next significant upper level trough across the northern
great lakes as it sags southward to the southern great lakes
late this afternoon into this evening. this system should allow
for continuation of lake effect rain showers and a period of
scattered to numerous showers associated with upper level
vorticity advection and some weak low-mid level frontogenesis
forcing with a reinforcing southward sinking baroclinic zone.
highs today will likely be reached early afternoon and then
possibly become more steady in the mid 40s as low level cold
advection becomes established with a good deal of cloud cover.

the secondary strong synoptic trough should clear the area by late
this evening, but guidance has been consistent in another small
compact vort dropping through western portion of broad negative
upper height anomaly across the western great lakes overnight.
the evolution of these successive short waves may take focus for
more dominant single banding west of the local area tonight
into extreme northwest indiana closer to in/il stateline. little
movement in larger scale negative mid/upper height anomaly
combined with collective warming effects from anomalously warm
great lakes waters should allow the much more aggressive cold
advection push tonight into friday am to affect eastern
wisconsin/northeast illinois and extreme northwest indiana.
these type of setups sometimes tend to favor an induced weak
northerly low level jet closer to the western shore of lake
michigan which may end up being more of a focal point for
stronger low level convergence tonight into friday am. nbm probs
of greater than 1" of snow tonight into friday am remain
maximized west of the local area. some uncertainty remains
whether any one area will be affected by dominant banding for an
extending period with some potential that smaller scale
misovorts could be embedded in any banding given good deal of
horizontal shear across western portion of lake michigan.

with focus for tonight into friday am looking to be shifting a bit
farther west than previous indications, confidence remains low on
any impacts as far east as local forecast area. some modest drying
in dgz could also occur briefly in wake of the stronger secondary
upper trough this evening with better mid level rh profiles in dgz
displaced to the west. low level wet bulbs will also likely be quite
marginal which raises questions as to what could be very low snow to
liquid ratios, particularly if stronger banding and higher
precip rates are west of the area. did maintain some high
chance/low likely pops tonight across far western portions of
laporte/starke counties but it is possible these pops may need
to be lowered if mesoscale trends discussed above continue to
support more of an extreme ne il/nw in setup.

forecast confidence diminishes heading into friday and saturday
with continued indications that focus for daytime lake effect
rain showers should be across extreme northwest indiana. by
friday night into saturday, trends continue to point toward
preference to eastward migrating dominant banding with slight
eastward progression of stagnant longwave pattern. this could
provide another window of some lake effect snow showers to mix
in friday night into saturday am with some light accums possible
inland for grassy areas, but dgz should begin to dry out more
sharply during the day saturday. confidence in travel impacts
remains quite low for friday night/saturday given drying dgz and
diminishing depth of lake induced instability.

the longwave pattern will remain relatively stable this weekend into
first part of next week with only a slow moderation in temperatures
back to near normal or slightly above normal. medium range guidance
does suggest stronger southwest flow upper level short wave lifting
out of sw conus for middle of next week, but background mean upper
ridging may be strong enough to keep bulk of precip chances nw of
local area with this system.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1146 pm est wed nov 11 2026

deformation rain on the backside of an exiting sfc low will exit
kfwa at or shortly after taf issuance. mainly vfr/dry with
lighter northerly winds expected otherwise overnight, though a
few lake enhanced showers with likely be in the vicinity of
ksbn.

cold advection deepens in northerly flow on thursday with cigs
expected to lower into mainly mvfr. gusts up to near 20 knots
will be possible late morning and afternoon. scattered showers
will likely accompany a secondary trough thursday afternoon-
evening with brief vis restrictions possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
406 am est thu nov 12 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers accompany a cold front tracking north to south today.

- gusty north wind peaks at 25 to 30 mph this afternoon.

- lake effect rain/snow showers set up tonight through saturday.
minor wet snow accumulations are likely across the thumb, mainly
near saginaw bay and the port huron vicinity.

&&

.discussion...

surface low pressure is centered over the ohio valley this morning
with a trailing hybrid inverted trough/cold front draped
northwestward across the thumb into northern lower mi. as the low
shifts east today, the trough will swing southward across se mi with
synoptic support for ascent from an amplified mid-level shortwave
passing overhead. scattered to numerous rain showers accompany the
trough with gusty north to northeast wind (~25-30 mph) ensuing
behind it. it will be a rather raw day as temperatures reach the mid
40s but the wind keeps the wind chill near or below 40 f. cold air
advection gains traction tonight with 850 mb temps falling to around
-6 c by friday morning. this will be the driver behind an early lake
effect precip event tonight into the late week. showers will
initially be cold rain but transition to mainly melting snow
overnight.

lake effect showers quickly become organized within the cold nne
flow over lake huron this evening, with models continuing to
advertise two dominant convergent bands - one in the western/central
thumb and one along the eastern shoreline of the thumb into the port
huron vicinity. these will be fueled by long fetch over near record
warm lake huron temps still in the mid 50s f, resulting in sfc-850mb
delta-t of nearly 20 c. this contributes to impressive lake induced
cape of 400 to 700 j/kg with the modified sounding showing
convective depth exceeding 10 kft and favorable intersection with
the dgz, indicating efficient snowflake production and high precip
rates overnight into midday friday. the warmth of the lake will end
up being a mitigating factor for snow accumulation, especially along
the lakeshore where wet bulb temps struggle to fall below the mid
30s. a few miles inland however, the ambient temperature and dew
points tenuously near freezing will allow for minor slushy
accumulations throughout portions of the thumb friday morning.
latest ensemble output continues to target areas downwind of the
dominant band in eastern sanilac and st. clair counties for
localized amounts up to 1 to 2". low confidence exists for diabatic
cooling within the most vigorous precip rates to lower column temps
by a few degrees, leaving the door open for local overachievement in
this area.

daytime friday will be brisk with wind chill holding in the 30s.
subtle backing to wind direction causes the lake effect bands to
shift mainly offshore by late friday afternoon. however, the
immediate eastern shoreline of the thumb remains a target for
additional rain/snow into friday night. elsewhere, dry and cold
conditions carry temperatures down into the 20s by early saturday
morning. cool cyclonic flow holds through saturday but as the
thermal trough begins to ease out, any remaining vigor to lake
effect ends and temperatures rebound toward the mid 40s. a highly
amplified ridge then builds into the great lakes sunday into monday,
offering dry and stable conditions. by tuesday surface-850mb high
pressure reaches the ohio valley and burgeoning southwest flow
brings a steady warming trend through the middle of the week.

&&

.marine...

the passage of low pressure across the ohio valley this morning will
reinforce northeast to north flow across the great lakes this week.
this will sustain cooler air across the seasonal warmer waters of
the great lakes, bringing unsettled weather and elevated winds and
wave heights. the boost in near surface instability will produce
wind gusts ranging between 25 to 30 knots through much of today for
most of the eastern great lakes. localized higher gust potential
will be found within the saginaw bay this morning and afternoon when
a brief window for favorable northeast flow sets up. isolated gust
to gales will be possible within this corridor during this time, but
confidence remains low that we will see the required 3+ hour time
window needed to trigger gale headlines. small craft advisories
remain in effect for all nearshore locations.

wind gusts then decrease slightly tomorrow, but gusts around 20 to
25 knots are still expected to persist across lake huron. widespread
to numerous lake effect rain showers are also likely under this
setup with the best coverage expected across lake huron. an isolated
waterspout remains possible with rain shower activity. high pressure
to build in on sunday, relaxing wind speeds and ending lake effect
rain chances.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1218 am est thu nov 12 2026

aviation...

scattered showers and overcast skies across southeast michigan
through tonight as a low pressure system passes to the south and a
cold front approaches from the north. this will bring northerly flow
through tonight to around 5-10 knots as ceilings trend downward to
mvfr and possible ifr at times. showers are becoming focused along
and south of the mi border and across the saginaw valley and thumb.
this will hold for a few hours until greater chances for
precipitation develop along and behind the front starting this
morning and into the afternoon as cold advection begins to ramp up
behind the front. winds expected to be gusty to around 20-25 knots
and out of the n-ne by late this morning into the afternoon as well
with borderline ifr ceilings prevailing.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet early this morning. high
by mid morning and through the afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est friday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......am
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.