Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
352
fxus61 kcle 142303
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
703 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

.what has changed...
another heat advisory has been issued for wednesday, but this time
it encompasses more of north central and ne ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) the hottest day of this stretch will be wednesday, with peak
heat indices in the 95 to 105 degree range leading to major heatrisk
(level 3 of 4) areawide.

2) gradual cooling thursday through the weekend with periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms. the greatest potential will
be friday and saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a large bubble of hot and humid air is becoming established across
the region this afternoon as an elongated and anomalous h5 ridge
averaging 600 dam temporarily builds into the great lakes. afternoon
satellite and water vapor loops show this ridge currently centered
over southern portions of minnesota and wisconsin, and the center
will slide se into the ohio and tennessee valleys by late wednesday.
the position and movement of this h5 ridge center will make for a
different type of heat compared to the late june/early july event.

first, the westerly mid/upper flow on the northern periphery of the
ridge will direct the warmest temperatures (averaging 26 c at 850
mb) across the northern and central great lakes tonight and
wednesday. some of this will drop se across our region wednesday as
the ridge center moves southeastward, but generally expect the
hottest air temperatures to occur in lower michigan. second, the
airmass circulating nw to se across the region will lead to lower
max dew points compared to the previous heat event, with dew points
expected to peak in the upper 60s/low 70s wednesday. this should cap
max heat indices in the 95 to 105 f range (warmest in nw ohio). with
all of this being said, wednesday will be the hottest day of this
stretch with major heatrisk impacts (level 3 of 4) expected for
vulnerable populations, but we are not looking at extreme impacts
this time since the worst conditions will be north of the area.
issued a heat advisory for wednesday for all counties in the cwa
except for lake, geauga, ashtabula, erie, and crawford since an
onshore component to the low-level flow should help to keep temps
and heat indices lower there.

key message 2...
the mid/upper ridge will start to become suppressed farther sw into
the ohio and tennessee valleys wednesday night and thursday in
response to a mid/upper trough deepening over eastern canada. this
trough will continue to slowly deepen through the great lakes and
suppress/retrograde the ridge friday through the weekend. as this
process occurs, gradually cooler and less humid conditions will
drop into the area. an initial frontal boundary sagging through
the southern great lakes and upper ohio valley wednesday night
and thursday will advect notably lower dew points across the
region for thursday and friday as low-level flow turns northerly
and surface high pressure builds down into the eastern great
lakes. although air temperatures will still be very warm
thursday and friday (mid 80s to low 90s), the lower dew points
will keep heat indices lower. the real cooling when air
temperatures will drop will occur by sunday into early next week
as the mid/upper trough further deepens.

the other aspect that this changing weather pattern will bring is
the potential for convection. the initial sagging front
wednesday night will interact with moderate to strong
instability beneath a stout eml. the latest href and rrfs
continue to show uncertainty, but there is an increasing signal
for some widely scattered convection wednesday night if the cap
can break, so added chance pops. the better potential for
convection will occur friday over the sw portions of the cwa and
saturday over more of the area as the frontal boundary slowly
lifts back northeastward in response to a couple of shortwaves
dropping through the developing nw flow aloft. we are not
currently outlooked for severe weather, but would not be
surprised to see it in future outlooks since the combination of
at least moderate instability and increasing upper jet
support/shear could support organized convection, especially
saturday. the biggest uncertainty lies with convective evolution
and timing, as the pattern supports upstream mcs activity
potentially dropping se through the region at times in addition
to local development. conditions will gradually trend drier
sunday through early next week as the trough deepens and pushes
the frontal boundary south allowing canadian high pressure to
build in.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with mainly vfr to persist
through the taf period. main concern going forward will be the
potential for lower vsbys starting wednesday night as upper-
level wildfire smoke may begin to filter down near the surface.
have introduced 5sm hz for cle towards the end of the taf period
late wednesday evening. additional hz mentions may need to be
added at other taf sites if trends persist.

winds are generally out of the west to southwest this evening, 5
to 8 knots. winds will subside to 5 knots or less overnight,
before increasing and shifting to the west to northwest
wednesday afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. a few brief gusts up to 20
knots are possible at cle/eri.

outlook...non-vfr visibility possible wednesday night and
thursday due to wildfire smoke. non-vfr likely friday night
through saturday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
elevated southwest flow will continue over lake erie this
afternoon and evening with high pressure advancing eastward and
increasing the pressure gradient over the lake. the highest
waves will continue out of the nearshore zones with a flavor of
2 to 3 ft closer to the nw pa/ne oh shoreline. as high pressure
advances east for wednesday, southwest flow will continue and
diminish. a cold front will move east for wednesday night into
thursday and stall out across the lake. this will flip flow to
the north/northeast on thursday. this boundary will remain
across the lake on friday, maintaining weak east flow. several
low pressure systems will move through the region over the
weekend, strengthening southwest flow at times and bringing
intermittent storm chances.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>011-
017>019.
heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz003-
006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
518
fxus63 kiwx 142304
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
704 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

.key messages...

- hot conditions this week.

- chances for showers and storms return late this week into this
weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 112 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

the heat is upon the area as 850 mb temps greater than 18c are
aloft. there are differences in the magnitude of temperatures aloft,
but the lower bounds of the temperature range is not low enough to
make this uncertainty a limiting factor. the main limiting factor
for heat this time around is the extent of humidity that the area
deals with. given the recent lack of precipitation, crop
evapotranspiration may have a more limited response. additionally,
the moisture within this ridge is being advected in from the
central/northern plains as opposed to the gulf. the ecmwf and the
nam both appear to keep the low level lapse rates below 7c/km, but
there are models that want to reduce humidity during the
midday/afternoon due to mixing, which adds uncertainty, especially
for areas south of us-24. it also appears that smoke is wrapping
into the area on the hrrr which could negatively affect temperature.
if these factors go the other direction and increase, the
possibility is there for a heat warning in the vicinity of fort
wayne east and north (generally along and east of us-24). have at
least issued a heat advisory for heat indices between 100 and 104
for wednesday. the issue with thursday is that a backdoor front
edges towards the area. cooling/drying appears to occur in some
models to varying extents and the full suite of models produce rain
thursday afternoon lending less confidence in retaining heat
headlines then. the boundary looks to move back northward for friday
so heat headlines could be needed again for friday but convection
chances increase then as well.

speaking of rain chances, model confluence exists around pushing the
ridge center towards the southeastern us/mid atlantic thursday,
reintroducing gulf moisture to the area. this allows for the return
of at least afternoon convective initiation. the better low level
jet kinematics remain north of the area limiting severe weather
potential to cell interactions and outflow boundaries in what would
appear to be a borderline severe weather chance at best. mid level
height steering points to an mcs moving from the upper great lakes
into the mid atlantic/northeast region friday night into saturday.
there`s a chance that that dives southward early and affects our
northeastern areas of nw oh and s lower mi. otherwise, model
confluence occurs around a cold front pushing south through the area
later saturday/ sat night. better jet kinematics and instability
reside across the area meaning severe weather would be possible with
favorable timing. we`ll also have to watch monday as this cold front
moves northward as a warm front and then another cold front pushes
through with a good combination of shear and instability.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 704 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

no changes needed for the 00z tafs. winds remain light this
evening out of the west around 5 kts. high pressure overhead
will allow for dry, quiet conditions with vfr ceilings to
prevail across our area. there is some canadian wildfire smoke
aloft but this is not expected to mix down and impact surface
visibility at this time. winds diminish after sunset tonight to
become light and variable overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005-012>015-022-023-104-116-204-216.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>024-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
heat advisory from noon edt /11 am cdt/ to 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/
wednesday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt
wednesday night for inz020.
air quality alert until midnight cdt wednesday night for
inz103-203.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016.
heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for miz078>081-
177-277.
air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt
wednesday night for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
797
fxus63 kdtx 142242
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
642 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

.key messages...

- the heat advisory has been extended until wednesday evening for
max heat indices in excess of 100f.

- egle has declared an air quality alert for wednesday due to
encroaching canadian wildfire smoke reaching the surface and the
resultant rise in pm2.5.

- a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible late
wednesday afternoon.

- a gradual cooldown begins thursday with periods of showers and
thunderstorms from friday into early next week.

&&

.aviation...

mid level high pressure and resulting subsidence and warm air aloft
will continue to dominate southern michigan into wednesday
afternoon. this will sustain convection free conditions tonight into
at least early wed afternoon. increased low level convergence in the
vicinity of a weak surface front dropping into the area from the
north late wednesday afternoon will only support a low (less than 20
percent) probability for showers/thunderstorms. the hrrr near-
surface smoke density model suggests the wildfire smoke from the
ongoing fires just north-northwest of lake superior will be driven
across srn lower mi from north to south wed afternoon. the projected
high density of the smoke is likely to result in mvfr based
visibility restrictions.

d21/dtw convection... isolated convection is forecast across mainly
the central and southern portions of the airspace late wed afternoon
and evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms wednesday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 341 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

discussion...

broad ridging expands to encompass most of the northern half of
conus today. geopotential heights associated with the anomalous
ridge maximize this afternoon, marked by 500 mb heights of 600 dam
centered along the minnesota/iowa border. temperatures have
responded accordingly to the stable and subsident airmass as
readings largely peak into the mid to upper 90s. given a cool start
this morning and some high cloud debris, adjusted highs and heat
indices downward by a degree or two, but still within heat advisory
criteria. radiation cooling and a slight reduction in dewpoints
should allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 70s tonight
offering brief relief from the heat.

the longwave ridge will flatten and weaken wednesday as a speed max
moves into the base of a hudson bay upper low. this should lead to a
slightly cooler day, but still very hot and humid as highs return to
the mid to upper 90s, with dewpoints in the 70s, mixing lower
through the afternoon. in combination, another round of max heat
indices above 100f is likely. one caveat to the temperature
forecast for wednesday is that central canadian wildfire smoke will
get advected into northern lower michigan by the unbound shortwave,
eventually directing the plume into southern lower by mid-morning.
this should have a net cooling effect on the diurnal curve and
warrant possible downward revisions to forecast temperatures, but
unless smoke density vastly overachieves, conditions are still ripe
for the persistence of heat advisory criteria through wednesday
evening. added cwa-wide smoke wording to the latest ndfd grids.

in terms of precipitation potential, cannot completely rule out a
couple isolated pop-up thunderstorms given resultant surface cape, a
reduction in the capping inversion strength, and a weak low-level
frontal/convergence boundary. latest pops reflect a slight upward
adjustment, but still below 25 percent (slight chance), given
continued ambient column dryness and weak forcing aloft. should any
storms materialize between i-94 and m-59, severe weather is not
expected. a lake breeze boundary could also suffice in forcing a
stray storm or two later in the day. cams suggest ci would be
unlikely prior to 3 pm. uncertainty exists as to any persistence of
convection into the early overnight period, but unlikely for
anything after midnight.

height falls continue over the state on thursday as the eastern
north america longwave trough slowly digs eastward. this leads to
500 mb geopotential height reductions aob 590 dam. still hotter
than normal thursday with highs mainly in the low 90s, but dewpoints
should hold below 70f making for headline-free heat. this marks the
start of a gradual cooldown thursday, taking until sometime next
week for readings to return to near-normal. during the cooldown
period, frequency of showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise,
with the first round on friday as gulf moisture lifts into the ohio
valley beneath perturbed flow.

marine...

a hot airmass remains in place today over the central great lakes,
leading to stable low level profiles. this should hold west-
southwesterly wind gusts below 25 knots for the rest of today,
mainly across the northern third of lake huron and saginaw bay. a
weak backdoor front drops south tonight into wednesday allowing
winds to eventually veer to the northwest behind the front. winds
still only top out around 20 knots wednesday evening over the north
half of lake huron. a couple pop-up storms are possible along lake
breeze development. northwest winds at or below 20 knots holds on
thursday. lower confidence forecast for friday and saturday due to
conflicting model guidance regarding the location and magnitude of a
surface low moving through the great lakes region. this has
significant impact not only on wind speeds, but also on wind
direction, along with bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt wednesday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kgk
marine.......kgk/sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.