Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
230
fxus61 kcle 141025
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
435 am est sun dec 14 2025

.synopsis...
a trough lingers over lake erie today as a ridge builds from the
north-central united states. the ridge then builds eastward across
our entire region tonight through monday. however, on monday, a
separate trough should sweep generally southeastward over and
near lake erie, and weaken the ridge temporarily.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
- winter weather advisory remains in effect for stark and
mahoning counties until 7 pm est this evening.
-the winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a lake effect
snow (les) warning for lorain, medina, and summit counties, and
is in effect until 7 am this monday.
- les warning remains in effect until 7 am this monday for
cuyahoga, portage, geauga, lake, ashtabula counties in ne oh
and erie and crawford counties in nw pa.
- the winter weather advisory for trumbull county remains in
effect until 7 am this monday. considered upgrading this
advisory to a warning, but less-persistent les and a snow
shadow in the lee of the higher terrain of geauga county and
vicinity should limit additional snow accumulations in
trumbull county.

aloft, a shortwave trough axis extending from georgian bay to
the southwestern great lakes at 3 am est this morning moves
generally ese`ward to eastern ny and eastern pa by sunset this
evening. behind the shortwave trough, a ridge builds from the
northern great plains and vicinity through sunset monday
evening. however, another shortwave trough should advance
se`ward from the northwestern great lakes to eastern great lakes
between daybreak and sunset on monday and weaken the ridge
temporarily. at the surface, a trough lingers over lake erie
today as an arctic ridge continues to build from the north-
central united states to the oh valley. this ridge will then
build generally e`ward across our entire region tonight through
monday. however, on monday, a separate surface trough
accompanying the latter shortwave trough should sweep generally
se`ward over/near lake erie and weaken the ridge temporarily.
this weather pattern at the surface and aloft will allow below-
normal temperatures to persist across northern oh and nw pa.
morning lows mainly in the 5f to 15f range are expected today
and monday. afternoon highs should reach only the mid teens to
mid 20`s today and the upper teens to upper 20`s on monday. wind
chills are expected to be as cold as -5f to -10f around
daybreak this morning and as cold as 0f to -10f around daybreak
monday morning.

the above-mentioned weather pattern evolution at the surface
and aloft will maintain a sufficiently-cold/moist mean low-level
flow for continued lake-effect snow (les) over and downwind of
~3c lake erie through sunset monday evening and cause the mean
low-level flow direction to be variable. the les will be steady
to heavy at times, especially through this evening, and again
between daybreak and sunset on monday, when low-level moisture
is expected to be greater/deeper and promote moderate lake-
induced cape (licape). upstream moisture connections to lakes
st. clair and huron will contribute to periods of steady to
heavy les through this evening. during periods of heavy les,
snowfall rates up to 1-2" per hour are expected, especially
through this evening, as model soundings continue to depict a
crosshair signature (i.e. low-level convergence along the major
axes of les bands yielding strong and maximized ascent
collocated with a cloudy dgz about 1 km deep). mean low-level flow
is expected to veer gradually from w`erly or wnw`erly to nnw`erly
through this early evening and allow multiple bands of les to impact
the snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa and vicinity. later this evening through
daybreak monday, mean low-level flow will back gradually to w`erly,
which will allow les bands to drift n`ward and eventually impact
only our primary snowbelt counties and vicinity. fresh les
accumulations through daybreak monday are expected to be highly
variable and primarily amount to 4" or less. however, additional
snow accumulations of 5-8" are expected in heavier and more-
persistent les, which should be focused across the following areas:
northern lorain, southwestern cuyahoga, northern medina, and central
summit counties through this afternoon due to frictional surface
convergence/resulting mesoscale low-level frontogenesis along the
southwestern shore of lake erie, which should contribute to upstream
generation of a heavier snow band that will then stream over the
aforementioned areas; the higher terrain just east of cleveland due
to a combination of upslope enhancement of les and an upstream
moisture connection to lake st. clair for a time; the higher terrain
of southern erie county and northern crawford county in pa due to
upslope enhancement of les and an upstream moisture connection to
lake huron for a time. note: light/scattered les showers originating
over lake michigan should impact locations roughly along and
southwest of a toledo to mansfield to millersburg line through about
daybreak this morning, but any associated snow accumulations are
expected to be less than 1".

on monday, les over/downwind of lake erie should continue to
shift n`ward and eventually stream ne`ward into primarily
portions of western ny as mean low-level flow backs from w`erly
to sw`erly. however, during the sw`erly flow regime, the les may
brush the lakeshore at times from roughly lake county, oh through
erie county, pa. moist isentropic ascent ahead of the above-mentioned
and latter shortwave trough axis should trigger scattered snow
showers over ne oh and nw pa on monday. the moist isentropic
ascent-related snow and weak to moderate licape over lake erie
should lead to the seeder-feeder process and enhancement of the
les. additional snow accumulations between daybreak and sunset
on monday should be 3" or less. outside the les and moist
isentropic ascent-related snow, fair weather is expected today
through sunset monday evening as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the aforementioned ridge.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday/...
during monday night, the shortwave trough will exit se`ward from
the eastern great lakes region as the above-mentioned ridge
aloft continues to build from the north-central united states
and vicinity. at the surface, the ridge will crest e`ward
through our region. primarily dry weather is expected as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. however, les is
expected to linger over/downwind of lake erie through the wee
hours of tuesday morning and then dissipate by daybreak as
licape wanes via synoptic low-level dry air advection and a
lowering subsidence inversion in the wake of the shortwave
trough axis. before dissipating, the les should impact portions
of our primary snowbelt counties at times, especially roughly
along and north of i-90, as the mean low-level flow of cold and
moist enough air varies between sw`erly and wsw`erly. nighttime
les accumulations should be 2" or less. lows should reach the
upper single digits to lower 20`s around daybreak tuesday.

dry weather is expected tuesday through tuesday night as the
surface portion of the above-mentioned ridge exits e`ward, the
ridge aloft crests e`ward over northern oh and nw pa, and
stabilizing subsidence continues to affect our cwa. low-level
waa on the backside of the surface ridge should be accompanied
by afternoon highs in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s on tuesday.
lows should reach the lower 20`s to lower 30`s by midnight
tuesday night before readings moderate during the predawn hours
of wednesday morning as a deepening trough at the surface and
aloft begins approaching from the west and causes low-level waa
to strengthen.

on wednesday, the narrow trough at the surface and aloft should
move quickly e`ward across our region and be followed by ridging
at the surface and aloft building from the upper midwest and
vicinity by the afternoon and early evening. afternoon highs
should reach the mid 30`s to lower 40`s as net low-level waa
persists. note: moist isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
axis aloft and convergence/sufficiently-moist ascent along the
surface trough axis may trigger a few wet snow and/or rain
showers over/near eastern lake erie and nw pa wednesday morning
through early afternoon.

&&

.long term /wednesday night through saturday/...
during wednesday night through thursday, the ridge at the
surface and aloft exits e`ward as another deepening trough at
the surface and aloft and the attendant strong cold front
approach from the northern great plains and eventually the
western great lakes. lows should reach the 20`s to lower 30`s
wednesday evening and be followed by moderating readings by the
predawn hours of thursday morning. highs should then reach the
lower 40`s to lower 50`s on thursday as low-level waa continues
to strengthen due to deepening of the trough at the surface and
aloft. a low-level return flow of warm and moist air from the
gulf will undergo isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the front
and primary trough axis aloft, and allow periods of precip to
affect our region wednesday night through thursday. a mix of
snow and rain is in our official forecast wednesday night before
changing to just rain on thursday as temperatures and wet-bulb
temperatures at the surface and aloft moderate via waa. will
have to monitor this portion of the forecast closely, including
how exactly the vertical profiles of temperature and wet-bulb
temperature are projected to evolve and influence surface precip
type.

at this point, it appears the cold front and primary trough
axis aloft will sweep e`ward through our region thursday night
and be followed by a ridge at the surface and aloft building
from the west through friday. lows should reach the upper teens
to mid 20`s around daybreak friday. highs should reach the upper
20`s to lower 30`s friday afternoon. additional periods of precip
are expected thursday night due to convergence/moist ascent
along the cold front and moist isentropic ascent ahead of the
front and trough axis aloft. behind the surface cold front,
rain should change to snow as the atmospheric column cools via
the wet-bulb effect and caa at the surface and aloft before
widespread precip ends behind the trough axis aloft. will
monitor trends in nwp model guidance for accumulating
snow potential. overnight thursday night into friday, the
environment should become cold and moist enough to support les
over/downwind of lake erie, but all of the following remain very
uncertain at this time: mean low-level flow direction; licape
magnitude; placement, intensity, and amounts of les.

for friday night through saturday, the ridge should exit e`ward
and be followed by cyclonic w`erly flow aloft, embedded
shortwave disturbances, and surface troughing overspreading
northern oh and nw pa from the west. les should end friday
night as licape wanes via a n`ward warm front passage and strong
low-level waa on the backside of the departing ridge. lows should
reach mainly the mid teens to mid 20`s friday night, prior to
the warm front passage. on saturday, low-level waa should allow
afternoon highs to reach the upper 30`s to mid 40`s.

periods of synoptic snow and/or rain should occur friday night
through saturday in relation to the following: moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of
the shortwave trough axes; convergence/moist ascent along
surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave troughs. will
also have to monitor this portion of the forecast closely,
including how exactly the vertical profiles of temperature and
wet-bulb temperature are projected to evolve and influence
surface precip type.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
steady snow from the clipper that affected much of the area
saturday afternoon and evening has exited, leaving mainly mvfr
ceilings and shifting the focus to lake effect snow. most sites
will hang on to an mvfr ceiling through the taf period, though
some temporary clearing may occur at tol, fdy, and mfd at times
on sunday. lake effect will be most prominent at cle and eri,
though will push well inland across northeast oh and northwest
pa during the day sunday with impacts likely at cak and yng
later sunday morning through the afternoon. the heaviest lake
effect will likely focus south of eri, though banding may impact
cle at times between overnight tonight and sunday afternoon with
periods of vsby under 1/2sm and potential for quick snow
accumulations, especially during the day sunday...though, it`s
possible the most persistent banding is slightly west or
southwest of the cle airfield. lake effect loses intensity and
focuses closer to the lakeshore east of cle sunday night.

west to northwest winds of 6-12kt with a few 20kt gusts along
the lake erie shoreline continue tonight, shifting a bit more
northwesterly and increasing to 10-18kt with gusts 25-30kt late
sunday morning and afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are possible with lake effect snow
showers in northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania
through monday night.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory remains in effect for the entire nearshore
zones of lake erie due to the elevated winds and waves. water
temperatures remain at, or below, 40 degrees across much of the
lake, with air temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. as a
result, there is a minor risk for freezing spray through sunday
morning.

winds will become northwesterly overnight and increase to 20-25
knots on sunday. winds may briefly increase to 30 knots across the
central basin, but will decrease to 10-15 knots by the evening and
becoming westerly. waves will steadily subside from 2-4 feet sunday
to 1-3 feet sunday night. winds will become southwesterly on monday
and increase to 25-30 knots. waves build to 3-6 feet in the
nearshore zones, and 6-9 feet the open water zones. occasional waves
11-15 feet are possible. the small craft advisory has been extended
to monday night to account for these conditions. these conditions
will continue through wednesday, with gale-force winds likely across
the lake on thursday and thursday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lake effect snow warning until 7 am est monday for ohz010>014-
020>022-089.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est monday for ohz023.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz032-
033.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 7 am est monday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 7 am est monday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
041
fxus63 kiwx 140754
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
254 am est sun dec 14 2025

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers slowly tapering off through the day.
localized additional accumulations of up to 2 inches possible
before ending.

- wind chills of -10 to -15 are possible late tonight into
early monday morning.

- moderating temperatures start tuesday with highs in the 40s by
wed and thurs.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 250 am est sun dec 14 2025

focus remains on impacts of arctic blast across the area into
monday. cold air continues to pour into the area, with 850 mb temps
of -20 to -23 c translating into air temps in the teens and single
digits (coldest outside of any lake effect). a rather expansive area
of les has been underway for several hours with lighter returns even
making it as far as fwa and into nw ohio. reports have been quite
limited for both the synoptic and lake effect portions of the event,
but snow ratios have been averaging roughly 20 to 30:1 and some
instances of even higher ratios noted. lake effect will continue
overnight and slowly translate sw into sunday morning. overall
intensity and coverage should slowly diminish, but some concerns it
could linger longer from la porte/st joe in counties se to possibly
into kosciusko county per hrrr runs. inversion heights will slowly
lower and over all flow slowly weaken which should help limit
overall accumulations.

no changes planned to current cold weather advisories which seem to
line up fairly well with the area of clear skies with obs indicating
wind chills already around -10 and expected drop even more through
the night. highs will reach the teens for most areas today, with
locations near lk mi seeing the warmest temps near 20 and far sw
areas maybe not touching 10 above. cloud cover will diminish this
afternoon and evening across a larger area, but some lake effect
clouds may persist across far n and ne locations. the big challenge
tonight will be how low wind chills go with air temperatures ranging
from -4 sw to 6 ne. winds will diminish somewhat this evening into
the early overnight hours, but begin to ramp back up towards
morning, allowing wind chills to reach or exceed -15 c over the sw
half or so of the area. with the current headlines out through 18z
and not being overly comfortable just extending them into monday
morning given concerns noted, will defer any additional headlines to
the day shift to assess latest trends. suffice to say, bus stops
monday morning will be quite cold.

the deep upper trough and bulk of cold air will be moving through
new england by 12z mon with the overall flow becoming briefly zonal
tues into early wed, allowing temperatures to finally head above
freezing starting tuesday. a stronger northern stream system will
move out of the ne pacific early wednesday and wave towards the
region, deepening as it does. this will cause upper level heights to
increase late wed into thursday ahead of a strong front. model
blends continue to bring 50 degree temps into southern areas (maybe
overdone, but given the strength of the system and low level flow
not necessarily unreasonable). with regard to precip chances, once
we lose the lake effect today, we should be dry until thursday as
the aformentioned trough and sfc front sweep through. caa occurs
being the front with a rain/snow mix possible as highs friday head
back to more seasonable levels in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1222 am est sun dec 14 2025

lake effect snow will continue through the late morning at ksbn.
highly variable visibilities are expected...bouncing between
lifr and mvfr as multiple, disorganized bands push through the
area. lake effect snow will gradually dissipate during the day
as winds back and inversion heights fall. return to vfr
expected by sunday evening. snow should remain just n/nw of kfwa
but can`t entirely rule out some brief flurries. mvfr ceilings
will also be possible at kfwa at times through sunday afternoon
as lake effect clouds stream over the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for inz013-
015-020-022>027-032>034.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
745
fxus63 kdtx 140945
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
445 am est sun dec 14 2025

.key messages...

- bitter cold temperatures today. the coldest period will be this
morning with wind chills ranging between 5 below zero and 15 degrees
below zero.

- lake effect snow banding possible along the eastern thumb
shoreline of huron and sanilac counties today. snow accumulations of
2 to 4 inches are possible if snow banding does push inland off of
lake huron.

- a warmup is forecasted for the middle of the week with
temperatures near to slightly above normal wednesday and some 8 to
10 degrees above normal thursday.

- a strong storm system is forecasted to impact the great lakes
region thursday and into friday. much of the precipitation is
expected to fall in the form of rain with the significant impact of
the storm system coming from strong winds.

&&

.aviation...

winds just above the surface have come around to the northwest,
which has allowed drier air and clearing to work into most of
southeast michigan. another push of moisture/clouds from lake
superior-lake michigan will spread in late this morning, along with
scattered flurries/light snow showers. mostly low vfr cigs expected
this afternoon, but areas of high mvfr in snow showers. increased
mixing depths will support northwest wind gusts around 25 knots mid
day, quickly diminishing in the early evening. winds will back west-
southwest this evening/tonight, but uncertainty with how well the
southern lake michigan clouds/flurries will spread east and impact
the taf sites overnight.

for dtw...cigs under 5000 feet to redevelop late this morning and
afternoon, with occasional flurries likely returning as well.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet, except medium toward noon and this
afternoon.

* high for precip type being snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 323 am est sun dec 14 2025

discussion...

a polar vortex amidst deeper planetary vorticity reservoir is
currently centered in vicinity of northern lake huron this morning.
the low height anomaly, distinguished by h5 heights of sub 510dam and
850mb temperatures of -24c will pivot directly across southeast
michigan between 12-18z. spin down of vorticity will cause an
excitement of the lakes with inductions of various mesolow features
over the bigger lake basins of the great lakes. the main question
has been whether any convergence banding will be shoved inland over
the far eastern thumb shoreline before becoming shore parallel for a
time. really a conditional, all-or-nothing type of forecast with
differing hires solutions. the hrrr runs are the most bullish with
some agreement from the arw for pushing inland, while the 3km nam
and rgem/hrdps solutions suggest most of the lake effect snow will
remain offshore. local time-lagged ensemble output is mixed at site
p58 with high probability >80% to measure but low probabilities <30%
for a 0.5 inch snow. the same time-lagged ensemble systems
convective method also calculates an approximate 30% chance for 1
inch of snow. nbm data is suggesting a miss with 60-70%
probabilities for 0.1 inch, 0% probability of 2 inches, along the
shoreline areas of huron and sanilac counties. lake effect
parameters are very good for convective activity with water
temperatures in the lower 40s providing for lake-850mb delta ts of
at least -20c and lake induced cape values reaching/exceeding 900
j/kg. observed snow amounts will obviously be dependent on residence
time/or the lack thereof of onshore snow banding later today. any
banding is expected to result in hourly snowfall rates of 1 per hour
or possibly more. out of respect for lake effect parameters, did
increase snow amounts into the 2 to 4 inch range, again conditional
to banding moving inland. a short-fused winter weather advisory may
be needed.

fast northwest flow will develop late tonight and monday as broad
ridging and supergeostrophic flow expands and reaches into lower
michigan. rising geopotential heights helps surface anticyclone
build into southeast michigan with a weaker surface wind limiting
wind chills into the single digits below zero monday morning. exit
region to upper level speed max and attendant weak pacific shortwave
is expected to result in weak synoptic lift over the forecast area
during the daytime monday. changing flow curvature is expected to
result in a wave of warm advection aloft. forecast soundings with
vertical uvv profiles suggests saturation and lift will be very high
up in the column at/above 8.0 kft agl with a considerable amount of
dry air holding in the lowest 6.0 kft agl particularly south of i 69
corridor. plan view of moisture on isentropic surfaces really
supports the idea of a dry air feed into southeast michigan from
gusty southwesterlies. the offered guidance of 30 to 80% pops for
the northern 2/3rds of the cwa appears reasonable. snow amounts of a
less than an inch in the thumb also appears reasonable.

relatively quiet weather for the middle of the week tuesday and
wednesday as flow evolves more zonal and broad ridging influences
the region. not a whole lot to talk about right now, but many of the
days are expected to breezy to windy. near to slightly above normal
temperatures are expected wednesday with readings 5 to 10 degrees
above normal thursday.

models have shown continuity in a deep midlevel trough pushing into
the interior of the us wednesday resulting in a strong baroclinic
zone impacting the great lakes thursday. early indications are this
will be an energetic wind producer with the potential for very
strong winds with a bulk of the precipitation occuring in the warm
sector. uncertainty at this time is a result of differences in
timing over southeast michigan.

marine...

the arctic front is now east of the area which has let the cold air
begin to filter into the region through the day. the coldest of the
arctic air will arrive overnight into sunday morning with a
secondary front turning winds a bit more to the northwest from west.
wind speeds will continue to be in the mid 20 knot range with gusts
up to around 30 knots. the northwesterly flow will push the higher
waves along the lake huron shoreline of the thumb resulting in small
craft advisories the rest of the day through sunday night. the cold
airmass and elevated winds will also lead to potential snow squalls
and freezing spray as well during this time. monday will again
feature elevated wind speeds as the next system tracking through
southern canada runs up against a high pressure system centered over
much of the eastern conus. the tightening of the prefrontal gradient
along with cold unstable air will lead to another period of wind
gusts nearing gale force. currently there is a large spread in the
model guidance solutions as to what max gusts will be achievable but
several hours of gales may be possible monday afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from monday morning through monday afternoon for lhz362-
363-421-422-441-462.

small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...cb
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.