Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 250647
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
247 am edt sat apr 25 2026

.what has changed...
pops linger a touch longer saturday morning. a bit cooler sunday in
the far western zones with a ne wind off of chilly lake erie. early
next week cold frontal passage will be slowed down into the tuesday
time frame.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain exits with cooler weather and high pressure influences make the
rest of the weekend dry.

2) a cold front moves through with the next chances for convection
monday night and tuesday, followed by a cooler pattern through the
end of the week with dominant upper level low pressure in place.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper trough/frontal system exits this morning followed by surface
high pressure influences and mid/upper level ridging into sunday.
drier weather, and for sunday, the orientation of the surface
ridging will create northeasterly winds off of lake erie, and
ultimately a temperature profile of cooler conditions from western
cuyahoga to toledo and a couple of counties inland for the western
cwa. column pretty dry through the weekend period upon frontal exit,
and into monday finally will get back into 850mb temperature
increases ahead of the next frontal system. should be in the 70s
area wide monday, or very close to it, perhaps coming a couple
degrees short for some of the nw pa locations.

key message 2...
low pressure system deepens over the central plains region tracking
northeastward into the northern great lakes monday into tuesday,
with the next cold front slated to move through the cwa. severe
threat could be ramped up a bit from the previous system moving
through this morning with a much more pronounced low level jet and
increasing 0-6km bulk shear values. will need to better assess other
parameters such as instability in coming forecast runs, but decent
confidence as of right now in convective weather for late monday
night into tuesday. looking at the broader scale picture, after that
cold front exits, another surface low brings precipitation chances
from the southwest tuesday night into wednesday. in the meantime,
upper level low pressure drops into the great lakes and could be at
risk of cutting off, translating to a period of below normal
temperatures for the region late in the week and heading into next
weekend.


&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
low pressure with an associated cold front moves southeast
across the area overnight into saturday morning. rain is
expected with and behind the cold front, diminishing west to
east saturday. ceilings quickly deteriorate behind the cold
front, with areawide ifr and localized lifr expected. conditions
improve to mvfr during the day saturday, with pockets of ifr
persisting along and near the lakeshore. light and variable
winds overnight become 10-14 knots out of the north-northwest
during the day saturday.

outlook...non-vfr conditions persist overnight saturday through
sunday morning, with vfr conditions expected sunday afternoon
and evening. non-vfr conditions with showers and thunderstorms
are expected late monday night into tuesday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front moving east overnight will shift winds north-
northeast with speeds of 5-10 knots. northerly winds will
increase across the central and eastern basin saturday and
saturday night, with winds between 10 to 15 knots and waves 2-4
feet. a strong low pressure system moves through the western
great lakes region for the start of next week, and winds will
increase to 15-20 knots for a period of time late monday into
tuesday. a a small craft advisory may be needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
317 am edt sat apr 25 2026

.key messages...

- mild and dry this weekend with highs from around 65 to 70.

- rain and thunderstorms late monday into monday night. all
severe weather hazards possible.

- cooler wednesday through saturday with highs close to 60
degrees. frost possible by friday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 am edt sat apr 25 2026

cooler and somewhat drier air was spreading into indiana from
the northwest. an area of fog was dense in spots had formed in
a relatively narrow boundary behind the clearing skies and where
winds had become light over northern indiana. the fog is likely
to persist past daybreak until about mid morning when the
relatively shallow radiation inversion mixes out. an upper level
ridge will build north across the ohio river valley in response
to upstream energy amplifying an upstream trof. this upper level
ridge will help temperatures rise much above north into the 70s
reaching near 80 degrees in areas south of highway 30.

an active pattern will unfold late monday into into monday night
as the upper level ridge weakens and as a strong upper level
trof approaches the forecast area. a band of strong mid level
winds reaching 70 kts at 700 mb will provide a setting for the
potential for severe thunderstorms, especially west of highway
31. bufkit parameters indicate max cape of 777 j/kg at ft wayne.
precipitable water values reach 1.57 max monday evening. a study
by lower mississippi rfc (sept 2015) indicated these values
were in the 99th percentile for northern indiana and northwest
ohio during the month of april. these high values indicate
precipitation rates could easily top 3"/hr.

showers and isolated thunderstorms should end late tuesday night
followed by clearing skies and much cooler weather. there is
frost potential thursday night through saturday night as
temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 110 am edt sat apr 25 2026

postfrontal caa likely to yield some stratus/br this morning
given residual boundary layer moisture from recent rain.
confidence is not high though, particularly at ksbn, as some dry
air will also be advecting into the area. return to vfr
anticipated by the afternoon and will persist into saturday
night with light n/ne flow.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 250808
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
408 am edt sat apr 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather and cooler but seasonable temperatures this weekend.

- showers and thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...

early morning sfc analysis shows an occluded front bisecting
southeast mi, extending southeast from stalled parent low pressure
over southern sk. this front connects to weak low pressure migrating
from metro detroit into the upper ohio valley, with patchy fog and
stratus wrapping around this system. eventually the front becomes
orphaned off into a remnant trough as mid-level shortwave ridging
builds overhead today. the result will be a strengthening inversion
that traps abundant low-level moisture, with morning fog mixing out
into the thick stratus layer which holds in place through the day.
persistent north wind feeds cooler air beneath the inversion and
limits highs to the 50s for most of the area, or near the seasonal
average. low 60s will still be achievable for the i-94 corridor and
areas south, while the lake huron shoreline stays cooler in the
upper 40s. the stratus shows some potential for scattering in the
saginaw valley and thumb by late afternoon as drier air with origins
over southern ontario spreads across lake huron.

the mid-level ridge crests overhead tonight into sunday, ensuring
stable and dry conditions prevail through the weekend. the drier air
from ontario gains more ground which favors a lower cloud fraction
by sunday morning, but easterly flow off western lake erie likely
holds some stratus in the south - at least early before daytime
mixing helps erode this cloud too. the boost in insolation helps
temperatures take a step up into the lower to mid 60s.

the dry and stable weather continues into monday with temperatures
taking another another step toward the upper 60s and lower 70s.
upstream, a potent shortwave will pass over the rockies and induce
cyclogenesis over the central plains. this low tracks from the
midwest into the northern great lakes monday night with deep layer
southerly flow advecting an arc of elevated moisture in overnight
into tuesday morning to fuel a round of convection. the peak in
synoptic ascent looks to occur after daybreak tuesday morning as the
negatively tilted trough passes overhead. a narrow warm sector
passing through the region brings a window for storms to become
surface-based with enough balance between marginal instability and
wind shear to support a low chance of isolated strong to severe
storms before the cold front sweeps through early afternoon.

longwave troughing progresses across central canada and descends
into the great lakes midweek. low confidence exists on timing of
individual systems as there will be several shorter wavelength
perturbations undergoing interactions during this period, but the
synoptic setup supports a period of cooler and occasionally
unsettled weather through late week.

&&

.marine...

departing low pressure early this morning sets up modest
northeasterly flow in its wake. while most of the region holds at or
below 20kts for peak wind, the long fetch and now `mild` water
temperatures likely support enhancement of winds funneling into the
saginaw bay. gusts look capable to peak in the mid to upper 20kt
range warranting a small craft advisory through the evening. high
pressure then expands over the great lakes this evening/overnight
gradually weakening winds. influence of said high holds through
early monday maintaining light winds and dry conditions to close out
the weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1131 pm edt fri apr 24 2026

aviation...

regional radar trends indicate the main region of light rain will be
east of the terminals by 06z. lingering low level moisture is
resulting in some degree of low cloud and fog development. sfc low
pressure now overhead will move east of the area overnight.
strengthening north-northwest flow in its wake will drive a shallow
layer of cold air across se mi. latest guidance continues to
indicate enough moisture present to result in an ifr stratus deck
within the corresponding low level inversion. diurnal heating will
result in a gradual rise in ceiling heights during the day saturday.
dry air advection within expanding high pressure from the north will
erode the clouds saturday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no additional thunderstorms will impact the
airspace through the taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and saturday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.