Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 302222
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
622 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no major changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will allow for quiet weather and near-normal
temperatures into this weekend.

2) scattered and periodic showers are possible next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will anchor over the region for the weekend,
resulting in dry weather and near-normal temperatures. despite
the dry weather, there will likely be a high cloud deck so
sunshine will probably be filtered. highs over the weekend will
be in the 60s, although inland locations along/east of i-71 may
reach the lower 70s. overnight lows will be quite chilly in the
lower 30s to lower 40s. any near-freezing temperatures will be
confined to ne oh/nw pa and increasing clouds will likely
mitigate any frost where the growing season is still valid.
overnight lows will begin to warm saturday and especially sunday
nights with more widespread 40s and lower 50s anticipated.


key message 2...
the high will drift east by monday, allowing southerly flow to
return to the local area for early next week. this will allow
temperatures to warm further (likely into the 70s). the best
chance of showers next week will be as a cold front approaches
and crosses the area wednesday and thursday, but warm air
advection early in the week will allow potential for a low- end
risk of showers monday and tuesday. there`s still considerable
uncertainty in the progression of the midweek system and
therefore overall confidence in the timing/placement of any
precipitation is low at this point.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr ceilings will continue through this taf period. winds will
start out from the north 5 to 10 knots becoming easterly tonight
into saturday.

outlook...apart from low rain chances monday into tuesday,
mainly vfr expected through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
east/southeast winds around 10 knots with periods of light winds
are expected this evening through much of sunday before flow
becomes more southerly sunday night through monday. south winds
will increase to 10 to 15 knots early tuesday through mid to
late week and winds may approach 20 knots at some point
wednesday morning. the passage of a cold front will allow winds
to shift to the north/northeast thursday night and small craft
advisories may be needed for portions of the lake as onshore
winds approach 20 knots next friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 302220
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

.key messages...

- chances for a few showers or sprinkles exists tonight into
the weekend. little, if any impacts expected for saturday
evening.

- highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s should dominate much of
the period.

- brief warm up mid week, with better chances for rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 103 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

the spell of 70+ degree temps has ended for the time being, with the
airmass behind yesterday`s cold front shaving off about 10 degrees
in high temps going into the weekend (low to mid 60s, maybe a few
upper 60s by monday). drier low levels remain in place with
dewpoints in the 40s and surrounding soundings shows fairly dry
conditions below 850 mb. hi-res models continue to show some
spurious light showers/sprinkles for later this afternoon into
sat afternoon as an elevated warm front attempts to work north
towards the region. 295-305k isentropic surfaces show decent
lift and low cpds, but then impacts of dry air below that leads
to a lower confidence forecast on measurable precip. northern
areas will be on the edge of the rrq of a 90 kt jet streak which
may help give a little more kick to the lift. model blend has
backed off on timing of arrival overnight with differences in
models on where and when some light shower activity could take
shape with some indications of a diurnal uptick by the hrrr/rap
in the afternoon. will continue with no more than chc pops into
saturday afternoon with best chances on saturday. hopefully,
whatever is around will be gone by the time trick or treaters
hit the streets.

trough currently moving onshore in s california will move northeast
in a weakened state, but will enough lift to bring another chance
for showers sunday afternoon, possibly lingering into monday.
thereafter, the deeper trough that has been discussed at length for
days will become the main challenge through much of the upcoming
week with focus on mid week. energy is still on the edge of the best
upper air sampling, but hopefully better agreement starts over the
weekend into early next week as it moves east. best signals still
point towards mid week being on the wetter side, but the main upper
low may remain sw of the area. while severe weather threat may be
low, still expected one or more rounds of precip. the active pattern
will likely persist into next weekend, but low confidence exists
given the plethora of differences in models.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 620 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

weak elevated warm advection/isentropic ascent may support a
few sprinkles or very light showers tonight into saturday at
mainly ksbn. dry and vfr otherwise given lingering dry
conditions in the lowest 8-10 kft.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 302213
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
613 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

.key messages...

- slightly above normal temperatures into tomorrow.

- low chance for a isolated light showers late saturday towards
central mi.

- mild early to middle next week.

&&

.aviation...

light and variable winds this evening reorganize out of the
southeast by saturday morning in response to the departure of
surface high pressure. a steady supply of mid-level moisture keeps
intervals of cloud around tonight through saturday, based around 7.0
to 10.0 kft agl. the lingering influence of the high resists low
level moisture advection to maintain vfr and light se flow through
the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 pm edt fri oct 30 2026

discussion...

inbound high pressure expands into the central great lakes this
evening/tonight and brings quiet weather conditions into tonight
with just a some high clouds streaming across the area tonight under
a light to calm wind. the high clouds will be focused across lower
portions of southeast michigan tonight. this will cause a difference
in radiational cooling conditions with the thumb and saginaw valley
likely being around the freezing mark tonight under more favorable
conditions compared to locations towards the southern mi border that
will be about 10 degrees warmer for the overnight low.

high pressure maintains influence over the region tomorrow as mostly
dry conditions largely prevail. a warm front is forecast to lift
towards the region tied to a weakening shortwave lifting out of the
southern plains. better theta-e surge and moisture transport will be
to the west of lake michigan. outgoing forecast remains dry saturday
and saturday night, but a few isolated light showers may be possible
with the weak theta-e advection west of the forecast area that could
encroach on western portions of southeast michigan. minimal qpf
expected if it does occur.

high pressure lingers over the atlantic coast early next week as
western conus troughing marches into the plains during the mid week
period. this will lead to a southerly wind component prevailing
across michigan and bringing mild temperatures. decent spread in long
range models in regards to timing of the next chance of
precipitation as longer wave troughing develops over the central
plains with the potential for a secondary canadian shortwave merging
with the broader trough. broad brush of pops monday night into
wednesday highlight the uncertainty in timing. forecast within this
pattern has daily highs in the 60s with increasing humidity helping
keep overnight lows in the 50s. late week stands best chance for
cold frontal passage bringing temperatures back to around the average
for this time of year.

marine...

high pressure builds in this evening and through tomorrow which will
lower wind speeds across lake huron and will maintain lighter winds
through the weekend. high pressure exits into new england late
tomorrow into sunday which will bring southerly flow this weekend
that will last into early next week. mostly dry conditions are
expected, outside of isolated spotty showers. more active conditions
then enter late monday and through the midweek period as low
pressure develops over the plains before moving across the northern
great lakes. this will bring breezy south flow tuesday and wednesday
along with rain showers and a low chance for an isolated
thunderstorm.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...aa
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.