Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
940
fxus61 kcle 151835
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
135 pm est sun nov 15 2026

.what has changed...
there are no forecast changes with this afternoon update. very
quiet and nice weather expected for this week.

&&

.key messages...
1) a large high pressure system will be the dominating weather
pattern over the ohio valley and lower great lakes region for
much of this week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the lake effect rain showers are slowly coming to an end this
afternoon. the latest radar trends have indicated a decrease in
the coverage and intensity of the lake effect showers over the
past few hours. a large and high pressure system currently over
the cornbelt of the midwest will slowly build over the ohio
valley and great lakes region tonight through much of this
week. unfortunately the clouds will take some more time break
up and scattered out. some partial clearing of the clouds will
start late tonight or by sunrise monday morning over northwest
ohio. the clearing line should progress eastward across neoh and
nwpa during the day monday with most of the area seeing some
late day sunshine during the afternoon. tuesday looks to be a
very sunny day with clear skies and seasonable temperatures.
high temperatures monday and tuesday will generally be in the
low to mid 50s and overnight low temps in the 30s.

a large upper level ridge will develop over the central u.s.
and midwest early this week and slowly move eastward into the
ohio valley and great lakes region through mid-week. the upper
level ridge aloft and the large high pressure system at the
surface together will keep our weather pattern very quiet and
rainfree for much of this week. temperatures will gradually
climb and be above average by 10 to 15 degrees towards the
later half of this week into the weekend. high temperatures
thursday through saturday will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s
across the area. overnight temps will be in the 40s. the next
chance of possible rainfall looks to be late next weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
widespread non-vfr ceilings at 015-025 continue today through much
of the taf period. a lake effect band is currently situated across
kcak bringing ceilings and visibility down to ifr. this will begin
to dissipate over the next few hours and conditions will improve to
mvfr. ifr conditions are likely overnight at kyng as the lake effect
band moves back eastward. ceilings will begin to improve slowly
monday morning from west to east throughout the day. sites from kcle
eastward may not clear until late monday evening. there is low to
moderate confidence in ceilings improving when forecast as some
guidance suggests that ceilings will persist longer.

winds across the region at between 300-350 at 5-10 knots. overnight,
winds will become lighter at 5 knots or less out of the west-
northwest before backing to more westerly to southwesterly by mid to
late monday morning.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through monday in low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
with this morning`s marine forecast update, we extended the
small craft advisory through 3 pm due to waves still running
around 4 feet and elevated winds up to 20 knots. the expectation
is to let the sca expire at 3 pm as the winds and waves should
gradually decrease heading into this evening and overnight.
high pressure over the midwest is slowly building eastward into
great lakes region tonight and will be dominating the weather
pattern for much of this week. winds tonight will be drop off
to around 10 knots from the northwest. on monday, winds wills
shift from the west-southwest 8 to 15 knots. the west-
southwesterly flow may slight increase over the lake 10 to 20
knots monday night into tuesday, the higher winds will be over
the open water.

the surface high pressure system will stay nearly stationary
over the mid-atlantic or mid-applachaina regions through the
middle to end of this week. the westerly to southwesterly flow
will continue 10 to 20 knots into the mid to late week period.
at this time, we don`t anticipate any headlines on the lake this
week but we may get close a couple days when the southwest
winds approach 20 knots later in the week. otherwise, fair
weather and very quiet stretch is expected with the forecast
this weekend.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
lez145>148.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...23
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
371
fxus63 kiwx 151924
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
224 pm est sun nov 15 2026

.key messages...

- some low clouds linger today with continued slightly below
normal high temperatures from 45 to 50.

- a moderating temperature trend expecting this week with a
return of above normal temperatures. the warmest days appear
to be thursday through saturday with many locations
experiencing highs in the low to mid 60s.

- mainly dry conditions are expected this week with some rain
chances returning by next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 143 pm est sun nov 15 2026

with the high amplitude ridge sitting over the central conus
with a blocky-ish omega flow pattern and extending well
northward into central canada, the northerly flow remains over
the area and has continued to bring lake effect clouds
downstream of the lake. with the slow progression of the ridge
this may take a bit longer to get rid of the lake effect cloud
production than originally expected. mostly to partly cloudy
conditions especially downstream of the lake looks to hang on
into tuesday morning before clearing skies amid a push of drier
air moves into the area on tuesday.

dry conditions continue and a slow warming trend will take place
into this workweek as the ridging continues to push eastward
into the region. highs in the 50s for monday through wednesday
with a few locations getting close to the 60 degree mark by
wednesday afternoon and then highs into the low to mid 60s
across the area from thursday into the weekend. mornings over
the next few days will continue to be crisp with lows right
around the freezing mark, however any areas with the low to
mid clouds may stay a couple degrees warmer, so the low forecast
will be predicated by the amount of cloud cover that is present
for a given location.

still a quite a bit of uncertainty in the longer term as
guidance has been quick to dampen the ridging and perhaps bring
in a disturbance just to the north of the area through the great
lakes but this may be too optimistic and progressive in terms
to what the actual outcome is.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1222 am est sun nov 15 2026

challenging forecast wrt lake effect cloud cover and flight
impacts. pesky band of mvfr cigs over ksbn seems to possibly be
on a downward as a bit of a single band seems to be setting up
further west. further east, persistent area of mvfr cigs
remained west of kfwa much of the morning, but a combination of
westward advection and new cloud development is resulting in
what appears to possibly be a period of lower cigs through 00z
and maybe beyond. have made changes to 18z tafs to reflect
trends at both sites.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
330
fxus63 kdtx 152005
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
305 pm est sun nov 15 2026

.key messages...

- cloudy skies today will clear tonight.

- dry weather expected area-wide monday through thursday with a
steady warming trend.

&&

.discussion...

persistent lake effect cloud cover this evening gradually erodes
through the night as midwestern surface high pressure fully builds
over lower mi. with clearing occuring west/northwest to east,
coolest areas with lows falling into upper 20s/near 30 favored
towards the tri-cities and west of i-75/us-23. eastern area`s later
clearing offers a slightly warmer night with lows in the low to mid
30s.

work week is dominated by central conus ridging slowly sliding
across the great lakes through early thursday providing another
prolonged mild, dry stretch of weather. surface high pressure
settles over the eastern ohio valley by monday allowing
southwesterly low level winds to develop for se mi. these winds
continue through midweek offering long duration weak warm advection
into southern lower mi slowly but steadily warming temps. highs
monday top out a few degrees above normal in the lower 50s however
mid 50s return by tuesday with 60s possible by thursday- some 10-15
degrees above normal. lighter winds early week turn breezier midweek
as the gradient tightens in response to low pressure lifting across
the northern plains offering potential >20mph gusts by wednesday and
>30mph gusts thursday. aforementioned low favored to track over the
far northern great lakes thursday which, as it currently stands, is
too far north to see any rain locally. should this scenario occur,
next chances for se mi to see any rainfall won`t arrive until next
weekend.

&&

.marine...

high pressure continues to fill in across the great lakes which will
end lingering rain chances across the southern lake huron basin
while bringing about lighter winds. influence of high pressure will
maintain light winds through the early week period. some localized
stronger wind gusts will be found within the saginaw bay into
central lake huron once high pressure departs to the east, which
will back winds from northwest to southwest. the pressure gradient
will strengthen over the great lakes wednesday and thursday which
will bring some stronger southwest flow to the area. otherwise,
mostly dry weather persists.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1208 pm est sun nov 15 2026

aviation...

predictability of mvfr ceiling is the aviation forecast challenge
for this afternoon and tonight. the latest satellite trend indicates
areas of vulnerability around the otherwise firmly established cloud
field off lake michigan. corridors of low level dry air show more
effectiveness off shorter lake fetch areas and up against a measured
daytime heating . at the same time, the solid overcast covering nw
into se lower mi holds firm as cloud layer wind gradually backs
toward the west tonight. a few breaks in coverage from northern and
sw lower mi this afternoon can be accounted for in the short term
while maintaining a prevailing mvfr ceiling until the surface high
pressure ridge slides across the central great lakes later tonight.
the shorter westerly wind fetch of increasingly dry air reduces
clouds off lake michigan and results in stratocu coverage reduced to
low predictability streamers or pockets by sunrise that tend to
shrink back toward the lake during monday morning.

for dtw... persistent low level nnw flow maintains mvfr ceiling this
afternoon and evening. breaks in coverage develop toward sunrise
through monday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and
evening. moderate late tonight and low monday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......am
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.