Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
835 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

.what has changed...
slowed down timing of showers and storms tonight with better
storm potential after daybreak tomorrow. quite a bit of
uncertainty still remains in the potential for severe weather
tomorrow.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected
tonight through tuesday. severe storms are possible, but there
continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty in timing and
coverage.

2) below average temperatures arrive mid-week before gradually
returning to near normal this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure departs off the mid-atlantic coast today, an
upper level trough will begin to dig south across the great
lakes region. this trough will support a deepening low centered
over ontario and will aid in the development of upstream
convection in the region beginning today. remnants of this
convection are expected to move into the far northwestern
counties in the cwa late tonight, where spc currently has a day
1 marginal risk (1 of 5). there remains uncertainty with how
organized this convection will remain given the lack of
instability during a non- diurnally favorable time, but some
gusty winds up to 60 mph will be possible. by the time they move
east of the i-75 corridor, expecting them to be primary rain
showers and sub-severe, but cannot rule out a few isolated
rumbles of thunder.

on tuesday, the associated cold front is expected to push east
across the area, acting as a focal point for additional convection
to develop. confidence is high that there will be storms given the
synoptic support that this trough will provide, the tricky part is
the extent and magnitude of the severe risk over the area. in the
mid-levels, a vort max will push east ahead of the trough axis
providing mid-level support at the same time a strong (35-45 knot)
llj moves over the area. this coupled with dewpoints climbing into
the upper 60s to low 70s on tuesday should allow for thunderstorms
development, especially east of i-75 where there is the greatest
potential for destabilization to occur by tuesday afternoon.

the tricky part about the tuesday forecast is a result of
uncertainty regarding how the decaying overnight/early morning
convection will impact destabilization across the area. if cloud
cover lingers longer than it is currently forecast to, then there
could be less instability that develops come the afternoon, limiting
the overall robustness of storms across the area and placing the
axis of severe storms further to the southeast. on the flip side, if
the cloud coverage clears quickly and instability quickly increases,
the region could see a shift in the severe potential to include
areas further west.

opted to ride the middle ground with this forecast package with some
cloud coverage lingering, but instability still increasing to over
2000 j/kg given the strong waa and moisture expected. with all of
that, spc has maintained the day 2 enhanced risk (3 of 5) for the
extreme far southeastern counties and a slight risk (2 of 5) for the
bulk of the remainder of the area with the exception of the toledo
metro area. with this setup, the favored storm mode would be a large
mcc with the primary threat being damaging winds up to 70mph and
potentially a few embedded tornadoes. there is a non-zero chance for
isolated large hail. will have to monitor overnight convection
trends to get a better grasp on the potential tomorrow.

key message 2...
behind the robust cold front that moves east tomorrow, temperatures
are expected to cool quite a bit, falling well below average for
this time of year on wednesday and thursday. ahead of the boundary,
850mb temperatures of 17-19c will push out of the region as 850mb
temperatures closer to 7-8c push south. this quick change in
temperatures will result in breezy conditions and a quick shift in
surface temperatures as well. highs on tuesday will climb into
the low to mid 80s, but will struggle to get out of the low to
mid 70s through thursday with overnight lows expected to drop
into the 50s. this setup may also result in lake enhanced
showers impacting portions of the snowbelt given the very warm
lake temperatures. as high pressure returns late thursday into
friday, temperatures will slowly climb back to near normal for
this weekend with highs expected to be in the 80s once again.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions are largely expected through the first half of
the taf period for most sites. there is some mvfr haze with
residual wildfire smoke over lake erie that is extending into
keri, but should end once the land breeze develops later this
evening. winds will start southerly around 10 kts or less.

beyond the initial vfr forecast, very low confidence
forecast in the evolution of shower and storm activity after 08z
tuesday. so far this evening, shower and storm activity has
underperformed in the upper midwest, favoring iowa and illinois
or the upper peninsula of michigan, leaving wisconsin dry.
previous guidance favored storm activity in this region
developing and moving southeast through the great lakes into the
airspace late tonight. however, activity has been slow to
develop and much of the night may remain dry and have pushed
back rain timing at the terminals. the question then turns to
when will storms develop with the prefrontal trough on tuesday.
if there is no convection overnight, then storm potential may
increase earlier in the day before exiting the region and have
slightly moved up ts timing at all terminals. there could be
some additional showers and storms with the cold front toward
the end of the taf period, but this is too low of confidence to
include in the taf at this time. winds with the trough on
tuesday will be southwesterly with gusts to 25 kts and changing
to the west behind the feature.

outlook...residual non-vfr possible on wednesday in rain
showers across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie are currently pleasant with winds around
5 knots out of the west with waves less than 1 foot. as a warm front
moves south to north across the region tonight, winds will increase
to 15-25 knots out of the southwest with stronger winds possible in
the open waters. waves will also build in the near shore to 3-5 feet
with occasional waves around 6 feet. a small craft advisory has been
issued for the entire near shore zones starting at 8am tuesday. the
zones to the west of the islands will be in effect through 4pm,
while zones to the east through ripley, ny will be in effect through
10pm wednesday. this is due to strong northwesterly winds behind the
cold front late tuesday that will keep winds and waves elevated.
additionally, a beach hazards statement has been issued for lorain
eastward from 8am tuesday through 8pm wednesday due to the potential
for high rip currents. conditions will begin to improve late
wednesday night into thursday as high pressure builds in. winds will
be out of the north at 5-10 knots with waves less than 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt tuesday through
wednesday evening for ohz010>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt tuesday through
wednesday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am to 4 pm edt tuesday for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory from 8 am tuesday to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
733 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

.key messages...

- there is a 30-60% chance of thunderstorms tonight. confidence
in severe weather occurring is low, but cannot completely
rule out instances of damaging wind gusts or heavy rain.

- air quality alerts remain in effect for the remainder of the
day.

- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake
michigan beaches on tuesday. stay dry when waves are high.

&&

.update...
issued at 722 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

radar, satellite and cams (including the wofs and hrrr) all
seem to be leaning harder on a greatly diminished threat for
showers and storms and possibly even lower threat of severe.
this is partially due to a somewhat earlier initiation of
convection in se mn that is now moving across e ia into western
il along a outflow boundary. the movement of this complex and
proximity of the boundary may cut off the moisture influx into
the area with cams delaying any convection till towards morning
as the front arrives. another cluster of severe storms was
moving across the u.p. of mi.

in the past hour, satellite and radar shows some expanding cu
along with scattered showers and storms along the cold front
from rhinelander to wausau wi. our chances for any storms will
likely ride on this area and will be monitored over the next
several hours. for now have adjusted pops to slow the arrival of
showers. the ne edge of the storms complex in ia/il was pushing
towards chicago and may hold together long enough for some light
showers or sprinkles in the w and ne in a few hours so have left
some slgt chc to chc in that window. while reluctant to do it,
did leave a period of likely pops overnight for now, subject to
change based on upstream development.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

primary item of interest continues to be the (murky) risk of severe
storms tonight and again on tuesday. water vapor, as of this midday
writing, depicts a sharp trough digging past the arrowhead of
minnesota. well south of this, perhaps on the far leading edge of
the right-front exit region of a 50-70 knot 500mb jet, lies a
cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted to some capacity
throughout the morning hours. the healthiest part of the line is
diving south of the quad cities posing no severe risk to our
local area. however, lingering outflow boundaries or trailing
mcvs appear to the focus for renewed, upstream convection early
this evening across wisconsin and iowa.

guidance this morning has been in fair agreement that showers
or storms, likely sub- severe, move through after 11pm. forecast
soundings depict rather dry, stable air below 600mb, as high
pressure over nyc continues to exert perhaps a hint of
influence locally. since yesterday, forecast bulk shear values
near 30 knots are favorable over previous, lesser values. fading
instability remains troublesome, though mid-level lapse rates
near 7 c/km continue to offer a glimmer of hope that some
convection could sustain itself. like yesterday, we overall
remain doubtful of any significant convection this evening but
cannot completely rule out rogue instances of damaging wind
gusts or heavy rain.

with anticipated minimal severe weather concerns during the
overnight hours, attention then turns to the advertised cold front
now south of us 24 later tuesday morning. this appears to be focus
for an isolated severe storm, but the upper-level support is
lackluster as the trough has become positively tilted. shear is
notably improved toward 40 knots but instability remains
problematic, especially considering any cloud debris from early-
morning showers/storms. here too, not overly concerned about
the severe weather chances on tuesday.

behind this cold front and period of showers and storms, a
reinforcing dose of cool air descends along a trailing secondary
upper-level vorticity maximum. this results in a 20-30% chance of
showers tuesday night through wednesday morning downwind of lake
michigan amid 10c delta-ts and cloud tops near 10,000 ft. otherwise,
a period of cooler and rather tranquil conditions lie ahead. highs
in the low-70s are about 10 degrees below normal, while thursday
morning lows near 50 will be fall-like. temperatures trend back into
the 80s by the weekend and high pressure shifts east and warm
southerly flow resumes. we`ll keep an eye on an area of low pressure
moving through the central plains later friday, but for now, this
feature continues to be advertised as passing to our west. another
trough drops in from canada later sunday, representing the next best
chance for rain.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 722 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

confidence remains quite low on possible convective impacts
overnight and into tuesday (at kfwa) as upstream storms have
been limited to 2 camps, one diving south across ia into western
il along an outflow boundary and the other moving across the u.p
of mi. in between these area, weak showers and storms are trying
to get going along the front but will run into decreasing
instability as they come se. as a result, have removed any
thunder mention from the tafs and went with a tempo for showers.
if trends begin to point towards something more significant,
will adjust. otherwise cold front will arrive late tonight into
tuesday morning with winds shifting and increasing.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078>081-
177-277.
beach hazards statement from 2 am edt tuesday through late
wednesday night for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am tuesday to 1 am edt thursday
for lmz043.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...brown
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
857 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms tonight will pose an isolated risk for
severe weather.

- additional scattered showers and thunderstorms on tuesday, then
mostly dry conditions with temperatures dipping below average during
the mid to late week period.

&&

.update...

a cluster of storms stretching from the eastern up into ne wisconsin
is tied to a region of coupled upper divergence/low level
convergence along the lead edge of an instability gradient. this
dynamically driven region of ascent will drift across northern lower
mi tonight. it is notable that convection has been struggling between
these storms and the mcs now over iowa and nw illinois. regional
acars soundings indicate a mid level warm layer across southern
wisconsin, likely providing enough inhibition to limit convection
in this area. the 00z dtx sounding also had respectable amount of
warm air in the mid levels. this is likely to also result in some
limit of convective potential across se mi during at least the early
portion of the overnight hours as the aforementioned larger scale
forcing resides to the north. regional water vapor imagery indicates
some mid level short wave energy advancing into minnesota, expected
to rotate into central lower mi late tonight and early tues morning,
which should offer a more notable erosion of the mid level warm
layer. this feature will also coincide with the lead edge of the
elevated instability axis. given this and regional radar trends,
timing of the better convection chances have been pushed back later
into the night. given the degree of forecast elevated instability and
steep mid level lapse rates, an isolated severe risk late tonight can
not be ruled out.


&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 636 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

aviation...

se mi will remain within the stabilizing influence of departing
surface high pressure this evening, maintaining tranquil aviation
conditions other than periodic gusty sw winds. an inbound upper level
trough axis and associated cold front will quickly drive a region of
elevated instability across se mi beginning late this evening and
continuing into tuesday morning, bringing a chance of convection to
the terminals. while some ongoing convective debris may reach se mi
overnight, the influx of elevated instability will warrant a chance
for additional convective development through the night. increased
gustiness to the sw wind fields will occur during the morning. a
secondary frontal passage tues afternoon will lead to a veering of
the winds toward the wnw with gusts at or above 25 knots expected
given forecast mixing depths. there are indications in model guidance
of increased chances for mvfr based clouds tues morning. those
chances will be greater if convective coverage is a little more
extensive during the overnight.

d21/dtw convection...the influx of elevated instability during the
06z to 12z time frame will warrant the risk of convection across the
metro airspace. although there is a chance for additional convective
redevelopment late tues morning and early afternoon, the chances are
quite low (less than 30 percent) at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms overnight and tuesday morning.

* low for westerly crosswinds tuesday afternoon.

prev discussion...
issued at 351 pm edt mon jul 20 2026

discussion...

benign conditions carry through the afternoon and evening as
stability holds within the warmer return flow of high pressure now
exiting off the mid-atlantic coast. smoke models and aqi
observations indicate the remnant wildfire smoke will linger across
the region, but egle forecasts call for concentrations to gradually
decline so the air quality alert will be allowed to expire tonight.

a favorable setup for severe weather is in place over wisconsin and
the western up this afternoon and evening as a potent shortwave
pivots across the northern great lakes. potential for supercells
exists west of lake michigan with anticipated evolution into a
broken line or clusters of storms that migrate e to ese into the
lower peninsula late this evening. the best synoptic/upper jet
forcing driving this convection is slated to pass overhead between
02z and 10z tonight, outpacing the narrow plume of upstream
instability that will lag behind. remnant low-level stability noted
in model soundings and the nocturnal timing devoid of surface-based
instability likely result in a weakening trend as convection arrives
late this evening, and a transition of surviving convection to an
elevated character. peak coverage is anticipated between midnight
and 6am, with scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms. the main threat would be isolated wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph, but this carries low confidence given the near-
surface stability. if upstream convection holds together and
marginal instability works into the western saginaw valley late this
evening, this would be the most likely area to see severe wind
gusts. a marginal risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall
exists across the area tonight.

a pocket of forced ascent along the llj passes over the southern
forecast area between 12z and 15z tuesday morning which offers
potential for a flare-up of showers/storms, but latest cam output
suggests the higher potential for convective response may ride the
cape gradient and track farther south into in/oh. otherwise,
increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates
cause a plume of instability to spread across lower mi tuesday
morning ahead of the cold front set to track through in the late
afternoon. this is sufficient to maintain a chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially across the thumb. will monitor
areas east of i-75 for isolated strong to severe storms in the early
afternoon while instability and shear briefly reach a peak. breezy
conditions amidst cold and dry advection ensue behind the front with
850mb temps falling to around 5c wednesday morning, translating to
lows in the mid 50s.

cool and dry conditions prevail wednesday and thursday as high
pressure eases across the region, with high temps in the 70s and
lows in the 50s. dry conditions persist into friday with an uptick
in temperatures closer to the seasonal average as southerly return
flow ensues. the next window for more active weather looks to arrive
late in the weekend as the next cold front sweeps across the great
lakes.

marine...

low pressure tracks across ontario and into quebec through the first
half of the week, establishing an active pattern across the great
lakes. breezy southwest flow has already started to develop ahead of
a cold front that will track through late tonight into tuesday
morning. a line of thunderstorms is expected with the frontal
passage, tracking across northern lake huron this evening and into
lake erie by early tuesday morning. greatest potential for strong to
severe intensity will be over north/central lake huron this evening,
where damaging wind will be the main threat. scattered thunderstorms
then remain possible tuesday until a second front swings through in
the evening, shifting winds from west to northwest and providing a
brief opportunity for gale force gusts centered around 00z (8pm
local). short duration gust potential precludes headlines at this
time, although a short-fused warning is plausible tuesday evening if
observations warrant. breezy northwest flow then persists through
mid-week although with drier conditions as high pressure builds in.
small craft advisories are in effect through wednesday, with beach
hazards concerns for tuesday-wednesday as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt wednesday for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 4 am tuesday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.