Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 pm edt wed oct 14 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
included falling temperatures in the forecast through the day
friday. wind gusts have trended down slightly.

&&

.key messages...
1) chance of showers and thunderstorms thursday evening into early
friday. a few stronger storms are possible with wind gusts to 50
mph.

2) a cold front will cross the area friday bringing strong gusty
winds and showery conditions.

3) the coldest air of the season will arrive this weekend and a mix
of frost/freeze conditions are expected on sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a few showers will exit to the south through this evening. a
cold front extends from near pittsburgh to north of columbus at
3 pm and will continue to move south tonight as high pressure
builds across the upper great lakes. scattered thunderstorms
have filled in towards columbus and should mostly remain south
of the local area.

thursday will be dry to start the day. low pressure is expected to
track out of the mid-mississippi valley towards lower michigan by
thursday evening. initially there will be a dry low level flow out
of the east with isentropic ascent increasing aloft during the
afternoon. showers will spread west to late afternoon through the
evening as the warm front lifts north to near lake erie. a few
thunderstorms will also be possible during the evening, especially
across the north near the front.

the storm prediction center does have a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms highlighted across portions of northern ohio. the
timing for this risk is late thursday night with any thunderstorms
occurring along or just ahead of the cold front generally after 2 am
friday. the wind field will be strong initially with 40-45 knots of
sheer aloft. the limiting factor for thunderstorms will be
instability with surface based cape of only a few hundred joules.
have adjusted the forecast to indicate a non-diurnal temperature
trend with temperatures peaking on friday during the early morning
hours ahead of the cold front. even without thunderstorms, some
stronger wind gusts may accompany showers and there is potential for
a few wind gusts of 40-50 mph.

key message 2...
low pressure will continue across the eastern great
lakes on friday, pulling a strong cold front east across the local
area. showers will accompany the front crossing the area during the
morning. strong cold air advection will occur behind the front with
850mb temperatures falling by about 10c between 06-18z friday. the
surface low however is not as deep as previous runs and the upper
level trough remains positively tilted and elongated to the deep
south as it crosses the central great lakes. mixing depths behind
the front on friday are only up to about 4k feet with winds of 30-35
knots through that depth. wind gusts of 30-35 mph are expected
through the day on friday with temperatures falling into the 50s by
afternoon.

a secondary trough swings south across lake erie during the evening
with winds shifting from northwest to northerly. this is the window
of strongest winds on lake erie and lakeshore areas will see winds
gusting to 35-45 mph friday night. in addition, this secondary
trough will result in a flare up of lake enhanced rain showers.
coverage of showers will be fairly high for several hours then
becoming focused across north central ohio overnight as winds shift
around to the north/northeast. this includes flow off lake huron
which prolong scattered showers through friday night and extended a
low chance pop into saturday morning for favored areas.

key message 3...
the coldest air of the season arrives behind the cold front.
temperatures at 850mb will range from -2 to -6c at 12z saturday
before gradually starting to rebound over the weekend as the
trough shifts east. temperatures on friday night will tend to
bottom out in the upper 30s for inland portions of northern ohio
but may reach the lower 30s in northwest pennsylvania. in
general expecting precipitation to fall as nearly all rain as we
lose ice in the cloud aloft late tonight.

high pressure builds overhead saturday into saturday night which
will result in a favorable radiational cooling set-up. saturday
night lows are forecast to be near freezing for much of inland
northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. this may result in frost
or the first freeze of the season and potentially end the growing
season for some locations.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
the main message for aviation weather is to expect generally
mvfr ceilings for the majority of this time period. we are
starting out this evening with conditions ranging from vfr
around tol and elsewhere mostly mvfr ceilings. mfd is seeing
lower ifr ceilings at this time and may hold onto ifr few more
hours this evening. we do expect mfd to see gradual improvement
to low end mvfr ceilings after 03z. now through thursday
morning, expected mainly mvfr to lower end mvfr ceilings to
persist for northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. some
additional improvement to vfr ceilings 3500 feet or higher is
expected after 18z at mfd, fdy, cak, and yng thursday midday/afternoon.
eri may see vfr ceilings sooner after 15z friday morning.

scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a
cold front may potentially impact taf sites after 00z friday
evening. winds are starting out northerly 5 to 10 knots and will
become northeasterly overnight. the surface flow will eventually
become easterly up to 10 knots thursday.

outlook...non-vfr will be likely thursday evening through
friday night. gusty winds exceeding 30 knots will be likely
behind a cold front friday possibly lingering into the friday
evening.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds of 15-20 knots are expected overnight. waves
generally build to 2 to 5 feet with the highest wave heights
expected from the islands to willowick where a small craft advisory
has been issued between 10 pm and 6 am tonight.

winds veer around to the south on thursday evening as a warm front
lifts north and southwest winds increase to 25-30 knots overnight. a
strong cold front comes through in two segments on friday, first
with a wind shift to the west/northwest friday morning, then a shift
to the north with a stronger push of cold air friday night. backed
off on winds slightly with this system with only a brief period of
gales now forecast for friday night as the strength of the low
pressure system has trended weaker and farther to the east. will
still monitor trends as we are close to gale force and may still
need a warning for at least a portion of lake erie.

small craft advisories will be needed through most of saturday as
waves are slower to come down. otherwise high pressure builds
overhead for the remainder of the weekend with improving marine
conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 6 am edt thursday for lez144>146.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...77
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
815 pm edt wed oct 14 2026

.key messages...

- cooler conditions for tonight with a break in the greater rain
shower coverage expected into thursday morning. more showers
and thunderstorms are expected thursday into thursday night.

- there is a marginal risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along
and south of us route 24 for thursday evening. confidence in
severe weather is low.

- turning much cooler and windy for friday with some lake effect
rain showers expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 317 pm edt wed oct 14 2026

surface cold frontal boundary has cleared southern portions of the
forecast area this afternoon. the low level baroclinic zone is not
expected to make much more additional southward progress into this
evening as broad upper troughing across southern ontario/great
lakes region pushes east allowing some induced short wave upper
ridging to build into the region downstream of larger scale cut-
off low. some isolated showers are possible through late
afternoon/early evening with weakening frontal zone across the
south, but otherwise prospects for additional rainfall tonight
look to be on the low side given southward frontal push and
break in stronger short wave forcing.

water vapor this imagery this afternoon depicts two features
that will be watched over the next 48 hours including a cut-off
upper level low across sw co and a more progressive vort max
spilling down eastern side of western canadian upper trough.
present indications still suggest a phasing of these features
thursday evening across the corn belt and upper midwest.
isentropic progs of 300-305k layer do indicate a rapid uptick in
isentropic forcing toward late morning/midday. this evolution
will allow the higher level theta-e air to return northward,
particularly by thursday evening. showers with some embedded
storms are expected to accompany this stronger advective push
thursday afternoon. despite the strong advection, a strong low
level inversion will develop in response and thus sensible
warming at the surface likely to be more limited keeping highs
in the 60s (possibly return of some low 70s late day/toward
evening across the south). severe weather is not expected during
the day thursday given weak mid/upper level forcing outside of
the strong advective forcing and due to the elevated nature of
the instability.

for thursday night, the aforementioned upstream facing should begin
to induce cyclogenesis of associated low pressure, however some
subtle but important trends in guidance have been noted. a
subtle trend of slightly more positive tilt with the upper
trough appears to be suggesting sfc low deepening rates will be
a little less impressive and more delayed than earlier
indications. robust shear profiles will develop ahead of primary
low/sfc cold front but northward extent of a quality narrow
warm sector remains uncertain, especially considering the trend
of less rapid sfc feature deepening. there does still appear to
be a narrow temporal window for weak near sfc instability across
the south depending on extent of warm frontal progression, but
hi res ensemble means still support best surface-based and
mixed-layer cape remaining across central/southern in. only
minor changes were made to swody2 with a marginal risk of severe
storms persisting south of us 24, and mainly for the evening
hours thursday. some isolated wind/tornado risk is possible
where some weak mlcape can overspread given background low and
deep layer shear, but current parameter space would tend to be
more supportive of isolated severe threat southwest/south of
local area from southern il into central in. another limiting
factor for severe potential could be more delayed impressive
dynamics due to the weak positive tilt of this system.
otherwise, some brief locally heavy rain is possible with highly
anomalous 1.75+ inch pwats working into the area ahead of the
overnight cold frontal passage.

friday still appears to be blustery/windy day with strong cold
advection on the back side of this system. this should lead to
development of lake effect rain showers and a potential of mixing
down some stronger wind gusts. with deepening rates of this
system perhaps a bit weaker than earlier indications and some
suggestion of a great lakes modification of secondary low level
trough late in the day, guidance has backed off a bit on gust
magnitude during the day, but would suspect some gusts to 30 to
35 mph would be possible. a few gusts approaching 40 mph appear
most likely near immediate lake michigan shoreline. given cold
advection, temperatures are not likely to move much from morning
levels with near steady temps in the 50s expected.

no major changes have been made to the long term forecast as below
normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. low
temperatures in the 30s are still on track with a potential of
patchy frost. the friday night potential remains somewhat more
uncertain as some lingering lake effect clouds could persist
across the west, while winds may not full decouple across the
east. saturday night still appears to be best chance of patchy
frost depending on extent of southwest return flow with
departing high pressure.

mid/upper level flow is still progged to rapidly deamplify early
next week which will result in conditions warming to above normal
levels into the lower 70s toward the end of the period.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 753 pm edt wed oct 14 2026

brief period of vfr/mvfr alternating tonight into early tomorrow,
eventually deteriorating to mvfr/ifr as a low pressure system
moves into the area during the afternoon. more persistent rain
showers beginning in the 18-21z time frame and beyond the taf
period. thunderstorms are possible, closer to 21-00z. handled
with prob30 groups for now given it`s later in the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale watch from friday morning through late friday night for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1211 am edt thu oct 15 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures closer to normal and drier today, followed by
additional rainfall late thursday afternoon into early friday
morning.

- a strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier
conditions friday, with a few showers in spots.

- turing drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by
sunday.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure tracks across the northern great lakes tonight,
causing winds to veer from northeast to east by daybreak. this will
draw the stratus plume over ontario into se michigan overnight,
reinforcing low vfr to mvfr restrictions for most of the taf period.
meanwhile, low pressure organizes over the plains before lifting
northeast toward se michigan thursday evening. the elevated warm
front will be responsible for lowering ceilings as moisture gets
trapped under a sinking inversion. lowest ceilings/vsbys are
expected at the end of the taf period as the low moves through,
which will also be associated with increasing coverage of rain
showers. a brief period of low level wind shear is possible as well
as a strong low level jet surges atop the stable near-surface layer.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms before 22z thursday, low
chance after 22z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high late tonight-thursday.

* low for thunder after 22z thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 336 pm edt wed oct 14 2026

discussion...

sprawling area of high pressure centered over the dakotas is
funneling cold air southward into the great lakes behind last nights
cold front. the combination of cold air advection lake clouds and
warm frontal clouds had lead to a very clouds day across the state.
temps have been slow to rise much into the 60s thus far so dropped
forecast highs a few degrees. lows tonight will fall into the 40s
but will be tempered by the blanket of clouds so chances of 30s are
slim.

next chance of rain comes thursday as a pair of strong systems,
cutoff low from the 4 corners region and a deepening trough dropping
out of canada, phase over the midwest before passing through the
great lakes as an energetic positively tilted trough. models are a
little slower bringing the precip into se mi, so pushed pops back
til after noon. the center of the surface low was supposed to pass
northeast through lower mi thursday night, but as we get deeper into
the window of cams, they are suggesting that there will be a
secondary low farther east along the occluded front, staying just se
of mi, possible over toledo. this doesn`t do much for the expansive
area of precipitation that will lift into the region along the warm
conveyor belt, but it does bring convection into question, as this
leading low looks to keep the instability gradient south of the
area. cape values are coming in only around 100 j/kg or less in most
model solutions. will keep a mention of thunder in for now until we
can more clearly define the area of convection, or placement of the
surface warm front. qpf could range from a third to a half inch from
thursday afternoon through friday morning.

cold front will pass through early friday pushing the brunt of the
moisture out of the area but cold advection will initiate lake
processes introducing additional moisture to any lingering wrap
around moisture around the exiting low. in addition, cold advection
will steepen lapse rates in the afternoon to around 10kft which will
help scattered showers to develop. the deep mixing depths will also
lead to a gusty day with winds solidly into the mid 20 knot range
through the mixed layer throughout the day. question is later in the
evening as the upper level trough axis cross the area bringing a
period of higher winds aloft into the 30-35 knot range. these winds
could be mixed down briefly before we attempt to decouple so could
see gusts increase around dusk for a few hours close to 40 mph.

friday night will be colder as thermal trough at 850mb dips down to
between zero to -5c with skies clearing as high pressure builds back
in. friday highs only into the 50s will help lows drop into the 30s
with many locations across the northern cwa possibly seeing temps
below freezing. longwave ridge over the western conus and trough
over the east will both be positively tilted heading through the
weekend which will help delay the advancing thermal ridge back into
the region. highs saturday will hold int he 50s before beginning to
moderate sunday back into the low 60s. looks like ridging will hold
over the region much of next week providing another lengthy stretch
of dry weather.

marine...

moderate northwest wind continues this evening before weakening
slightly and veering to easterly overnight as high pressure passes
across the northern great lakes. an elevated wave field is forecast
to clip the lake huron nearshore waters between port austin and port
sanilac, and a small craft advisory has been issued through tonight.
lighter wind takes on a southeast direction on thursday ahead of a
stronger low developing over the midwest.

this low will bring active marine weather thursday night through
friday as it strengthens while tracking from southern lake michigan
to the ontario peninsula. a 40 to 50 kt southwesterly low-level jet
targets western lake erie thursday night. profiles show strong low-
level stability during this window, which will hold the bulk of the
momentum aloft. will hold off on gale headlines for this brief
feature as wind gusts are forecast to max at 25 to 30 kt. numerous
to widespread showers will accompany the system thursday night.

a strong cold front will pass north to south across the region on
friday as the low departs to the east. increasing instability and
favorable fetch offer relatively high confidence to see northerly
gusts to gale force on lake huron friday afternoon and friday night.
latest model data has trended slightly weaker with the wind field,
so did cap the forecast gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range. a gale watch
remains in effect for all of lake huron. will continue to monitor
the need to expand the watch into lake st. clair and western lake
erie, but confidence remains too low at this time. gusty northwest
wind backs to west-southwest by saturday as high pressure builds
into the ohio valley.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from friday morning through late friday night for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 2 am edt early this morning for lhz441-
442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...drk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.