Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
628 am est wed feb 4 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes were made to the forecast with this full
update besides increasing winds and gusts for most of friday
through friday night. this is when a deepening clipper-type low
pressure system should impact our area. confidence continues to
increase that the clipper will generate widespread light to
moderate accumulating snow in northern oh and nw pa this
thursday night through friday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) primarily below-normal temperatures are expected through
this monday before temperatures potentially rebound to
near-normal values on tuesday, february 10th.

2.) periods of snow are expected this morning and again this
thursday night through upcoming weekend.

3.) behind an arctic front, gusty northwesterly winds are
expected on friday into friday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
net troughing aloft, associated with an abnormally-cold air
mass, remains entrenched over eastern canada. this trough will
impact at least most of the eastern united states through
monday, february 9th, including northern oh and nw pa, as the
s`ward extent of the trough fluctuates. mainly below-normal
temperatures are expected to persist in our cwa. for context,
our normal highs are near 35f and normal lows are near 20f this
time of year. at the surface, a ridge builds from the north-
central united states and vicinity through tonight. amidst the
low-level caa regime behind a recent cold front passage, highs
this afternoon are expected to reach the upper teens to lower
20`s. overnight lows are expected to reach mainly the single
digits above 0f around daybreak thursday.

the ridge should exit slowly e`ward thursday through thursday
night before an arctic front sweeps se`ward through our region
on friday. low-level waa on the backside of the ridge and ahead
of the front should contribute to daytime highs reaching mainly
the lower to mid 20`s on thursday. during thursday evening,
lows near 10f to 15f are expected in nw pa and ne oh, while lows
mainly near 15f to 20f are expected farther west in our cwa.
after midnight thursday night, readings are expected to begin to
moderate amidst strengthening low-level waa. friday`s highs are
expected to reach the mid 20`s to mid 30`s before the arctic
front passage. behind the front, an arctic ridge and associated
colder air temperatures should affect our region through monday
night as the core of the ridge moves from the northern great
plains toward new england. widespread sub-zero minimum wind
chills should occur this saturday through monday, respectively.
the coldest of these wind chills (-10f to -20f) should occur
saturday morning and may prompt a cold weather advisory for at
least parts of our cwa. on tuesday, the surface ridge should
continue to exit e`ward as a ridge aloft, associated with a
warmer air mass, overspreads our region from the west.
accordingly, our latest forecast calls for afternoon highs to
reach the lower to upper 30`s.

key message 2...
latest surface obs and radar data as of 2:30 am est indicate
snow flurries are lingering across much of our cwa. these appear
to simply be the result of mixed-phase stratocumuli that are
just thick enough to support very light snow production. as a
lowering subsidence inversion accompanies the aforementioned,
building surface ridge, expect the stratocumuli to thin enough
to no longer support snow production by midday today. no more
than a trace of snow accumulation is expected from these
flurries.

current odds favor dry weather the rest of today through
thursday based on the projected weather pattern evolution at
the surface and aloft mentioned in the previous key message
section. during thursday night through friday, widespread snow,
steady at times, is expected due to the following: moist
isentropic ascent ahead of a se`ward-moving shortwave trough
axis aloft and the release of at least weak potential
instability in the lowest ~1 km agl via convergence/moist ascent
along the arctic front. the front should sweep se`ward through
our region during the late morning through early evening hours
of friday. as higher-res nwp model data become available for
this portion of our official forecast, will have to monitor
model sounding data for a potential burst of heavy snow and/or
graupel along the front. the widespread snowfall is still
expected to total roughly one to four inches in our cwa. the
greatest totals should be focused in the higher terrain of ne oh
and nw pa. this is where snow should be enhanced by moist
nw`erly upslope flow for as long as several hours behind the
arctic front and before low-level dry air advection begins in
earnest.

during friday night through this sunday, periodic and scattered
les showers should target our cwa amidst a nw`erly to n`erly
mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind
of the ice-free waters of lakes michigan and huron, and possible
gaps in lake erie`s ice cover. given the expectation of
extensive ice cover on lake huron and especially lake erie, les
intensity and amounts should be limited. note: a shortwave
trough embedded in nw`erly flow aloft may generate widespread
light snow across our cwa saturday night into sunday. current
odds favor dry weather sunday night through tuesday amidst
stabilizing subsidence accompanying the aforementioned ridge.

key message 3...
nw`erly surface winds are expected to be around 20 mph sustained
and gust up to 30 to 40 mph behind friday`s arctic front
passage. steep low-level lapse rates and rather deep mechanical
mixing of the boundary layer amidst low-level winds and caa
increasing with height will promote these gusty winds. wind
gusts should begin to subside during the wee hours of saturday
morning and ease significantly by daybreak amidst a relaxing
mslp gradient. trends in nwp model guidance will continue to be
monitored for the potential need of a wind advisory (peak gust
criteria: 46-57 mph). note: these nw`erly surface winds should
result in some blowing and drifting of freshly-fallen snow.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
patchy mvfr stratus remains with some pockets of vfr in clear
skies this morning. anticipate for any clearing this morning to
fill back in with mvfr ceilings this afternoon as expansive
cloud cover remains across the great lakes region in the wake of
a cold front.

as a ridge builds east this evening there will be a brief
window of vfr returning to all taf sites before mvfr returns in
low stratus and patchy br late tonight/early thursday morning.
winds remain light and variable through the taf period.

outlook...periods of non-vfr expected in low-level clouds and/or
snow showers through thursday. non-vfr likely thursday night
into friday evening as a clipper brings snow areawide. northwest
wind gusts of 30-35 knots will be possible friday evening.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered and will continue to expand
during a prolonged period of below normal temperatures through this
weekend. a ridge of high pressure builds across the region today
through thursday allowing for light northwesterly flow over the
lake. winds turn westerly to southwesterly while increasing to 10-15
knots thursday into early friday ahead of a clipper system. winds
turn northwesterly and increase to 20-30 knots friday evening
through early saturday as the system pushes to the east. another
area of high pressure builds overhead saturday into early next week
allowing for winds to diminish to 5-10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
624 am est wed feb 4 2026

.key messages...
- a few flurries are possible today with highs in the low/mid 20s.

- a dusting of snow is expected on thursday afternoon with a 30
percent chance of some freezing drizzle thursday evening.

- 1-2 inches of snow is expected friday morning with the highest
amounts along and east of i-69.

- after a brief warmup on friday, more cold weather is expected
saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 320 am est wed feb 4 2026

weak low level front has cleared the area with increasingly
northerly flow advecting colder air back into the cwa. appears to be
just enough residual boundary layer moisture under strengthening
subsidence inversion and theta-e contribution from the lakes to
maintain mostly cloudy skies. further, stratus deck squarely
intersects dgz so we are getting some flurries across the area, and
even some light industrial-enhanced snow. this activity will likely
continue through the morning until a shortwave passes, low level
flow starts to back, and some boundary-layer warming starts to occur
this afternoon. no evidence of a prominent midlake band just yet but
radars may be overshooting it. most hi-res guidance continues to
support land breeze development in light synoptic flow that will
develop a modest dominant band in the middle of the lake by late
morning. if so, this band will be pushed into our nw counties later
this evening by backing low level winds. maintained some low pop`s
to account for this scenario but backing flow in an already
unfavorable thermodynamic environment with low inversion heights will
also significantly disrupt the band and limit accumulation potential
for our area. a tenth or two is possible in berrien, northern la
porte, and perhaps western st. joseph (in) around 00z but not
expecting any substantive accumulation or impacts. stratus blanket
keeping most areas significantly warmer than previously expected but
caa will still hold a lid on today`s highs with generally low/mid
20s expected. raised tonight`s lows as well with the expectation for
more stratus development overnight (if we ever even break out this
afternoon).

pair of midlevel shortwaves then come diving out of the canadian
prairies thu and fri with our next round of active weather. the first
wave arrives thu afternoon and is the weaker of the two, battling a
lot of dry air/stable conditions. a brief window (only around 3
hours for most) of moderate isentropic upglide amid a broad midlevel
trough will support light precip for much of the region but qpf will
be limited to a few hundredths yielding a half-inch or so during the
thu afternoon commute. no ice nucleation concerns with the initial
precip (all snow) but it does become a concern thu evening. 00z
nam12 is the most concerning with widespread freezing drizzle but
typical nam low level moisture issues appear to also be at play.
other (low-res) guidance shows drier profiles thu night with
little/no precip but not confident in this scenario either. have
raised nbm pop`s and qpf with a chance of freezing drizzle
mentioned. confidence in this aspect of the forecast is not high,
though. second wave then arrives on fri. still some significant
model differences here as well. most guidance agrees on some precip
but difference is in amounts. here leaned toward wpc, ecmwf, and
canadian guidance which has tended to do better with these canadian
clippers. a quick 1-2" is likely for our ne half with isolated
amounts around 3" certainly possible, though mid 30s highs will take
a toll on accumulation efficiency. some lake response likely fri
night into early sat but it`s too early to pin down locations or
amounts.

another clipper system is possible early sunday but ensemble
guidance shows very wide spread on timing and track. after one
more cold spell over the weekend, more notable warmup finally
arrives next week. there are some chances for precip but
guidance continue to be highly variable for this timeframe.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 624 am est wed feb 4 2026

in the middle of this mid level trough with plenty of vorticity, an
area of surface high pressure moves through during this taf period,
which would normally signify drier air. the problem is that there is
a thin layer of low level moisture identifiable in rap time sections
that is trapped under the inversion and is contributing to stratus
clouds overhead. overnight and into this morning, models have been
indicating that the area of 925 mb moisture should be drying out by
now, but that hasn`t been the case. there also continues to be
disagreement around how long the stratus lasts the rest of the day.
at this point, it seems more prudent to hang onto the stratus until
there`s satellite indication that it will break up. one other
potential hazard of note is that les begins to shift eastward and
may be able to work towards sbn this evening, but output is expected
to be weak and with little hazards so will leave it out of this
issuance.

wind is expected to start this period of the northeast and will back
around to westerly by this evening before being out of the southwest
overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
651 am est wed feb 4 2026

.key messages...

- light snow returns for the end of the workweek, with accumulations
generally 1-3 inches. the bulk of the snow will fall late friday
morning.

- temperatures reach or exceed freezing on friday; however, strong
northwest winds at the end of the day (gusting 30-40 mph) will
drive much colder air back into southeast michigan.

- wind chills of 10 to 15 degrees below zero are likely saturday
morning before a modest warming trend occurs over the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

light north-northwest surface wind maintains lake moisture with mvfr
ceilings across southeast michigan this morning. there are some
break in the clouds with a pocket of clearing starting to creep west
into the terminal space at the start of this taf period. clouds have
also been supporting isolated very light flurries as well.
additional drying throughout today will try to bring more breaks in
the low clouds, but models still keep moisture trapped under an
inversion throughout the day. backing winds will also tend to
maintain lake moisture connection as well with a potential diurnal
heating component in the afternoon. will keep a more pessimistic
trends today in terms of coverage because of this. there will be an
opportunity for ceilings to lift to low vfr this afternoon with
daytime heating before ceilings look to lower again tonight.

for dtw... isolated flurries remain possible this morning with mvfr
ceilings. a break into low vfr will be possible with clearing
working westward this morning, but uncertain if it makes it through
dtw. expectation is for high coverage of clouds to return by the
afternoon if any clearing does occur with ceilings holding below
5,000 feet.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning, moderate
this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 am est wed feb 4 2026

discussion...

despite northwest-north low level flow over lower michigan, a lake
superior-northern lake michigan connection is still proving
sufficient to lock in clouds (some breaks) and even flurries with the
surface temps in the teens. tough call on the sky cover today, as
there will be additional subsidence and subsequent warming/drying at
the 850 mb level, as temps warm into the negative upper single
numbers. still, there may be sufficient moisture trapped/lingering at
the 925 mb level to support continued mostly cloudy, which is the
direction this forecast will lean. that`s not to say there will not
be a period of sunshine before clouds redevelop in any breaks. with
the elevated temps this morning, breaks in the clouds should support
maxes in the lower 20 (see warmer nam mos).

exceptional upper level ridge over the great basin, with 500 mb
heights (585-586 dam) at or near record daily record values for
early february. this leads to strong upper level northwest jet
over western canada tracking into the western-central great lakes
region, which leads to fast moving upper level waves translating
through. two discrete upper level waves/500 mb height fall centers
to move through to close our the workweek, one on thursday and the
second friday morning.

should see some light snow with the lead wave thursday afternoon,
and utilized the sref pops for the most part during this period.
although, thermal profiles are less than ideal (have to get to 700 mb
level to reach temps around the -10 c), thus southwest flow off lake
michigan should not contribute much to the moisture profile. as
such, would not expect much more than a dusting to one inch through
thursday evening.

the wave/jet on friday looks to be the stronger one of the two, and
will gives us the majority of our snowfall. euro/canadian ensembles
both indicating 80-100 percent probability of 24 hr qpf to be aoa a
tenth of an inch. a 1-3" snowfall seems reasonable based on 850-700
mb specific humidity of 2-2.75 g/kg tracking through. better
moisture progged to track through the western ohio valley friday
morning, but good lift rolls through southeast michigan. short
duration is expected to limit totals, as strong northwest winds,
gusting 30-40 mph late in the day (per local probabilistic guidance)
ushers in much colder and drier air. bulk of the arctic air (-25 c
at 850 mb) looks to be tracking through the eastern great lakes and
moves east fairly quickly, per 00z euro.

slow warm advection pattern for the weekend, and an elevated warm
front may become active for the second half of the weekend and
produce a little light snow. however, with the strong high pressure
holding at the surface, nbm pops are just indicating slight chance
for now. if the upstream warm front does not produce mid-high clouds
saturday night, good chance for min temps to be colder than outgoing
forecast (single numbers).

marine...

moderate northwesterly winds and colder air will continue as a
clipper system pushes away from the great lakes region. high
pressure dropping out of canada will expand over the great lakes
region on wednesday bringing drier weather and lighter (<15kt)
winds. another clipper swinging out of northern ontario is expected
to draw an arctic cold front over the central great lakes late
thursday though saturday. strong trailing cold advection looks to
offer the next shot at gales and heavy freezing spray (for whatever
ice-free waters are still there by that point) over lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.