Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 101126
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
626 am est tue nov 10 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
dew points and rh values were lowered through early this
evening. rain amounts in the forecast for wednesday night have
increased. precip chances thursday and friday were increased a
bit as confidence increases. low temperatures thursday night
were raised across parts of the forecast area.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and somewhat milder weather is expected through midweek.

2) cooler with unsettled weather returning late week. while
snow may mix in at times starting early friday, especially in
the higher terrain southeast of lake erie, impactful
accumulations remain rather unlikely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
small low pressure zipping out of ontario and into quebec today
will drag a weakening cold front into the area today. this
front will be dry, accompanied by little if any airmass change,
and will likely wash out across the area into tonight. today
will be the warm day of the week with highs ranging from the
upper 50s across northwest pa to the low-mid 60s across most of
northern ohio. minimum rh values will likely fall into the
30-40% range across northwest oh this afternoon with slightly
elevated westerly breezes...a reminder that the state of ohio`s
open burn ban is in effect through november. lows will largely
dip into the 30s tonight, with highs in the mid to upper 50s on
wednesday. rain ahead of the next system, discussed below, may
begin encroaching on northwest ohio around sunset on wednesday.

key message 2...
the combination of amplifying ridging from the eastern rockies
north towards hudson bay and a -nao blocking pattern across the
northwestern atlantic still supports a notable change to much
chillier and unsettled weather across the region for the second
half of the week, lingering into the weekend. guidance remains
in good agreement on the big picture, as a trough begins to
quickly dig into the eastern conus wednesday and thursday, with
the trough evolving into a large closed low to end the week.
once this occurs, the trough/closed low will only slowly exit to
the east through the weekend and into early next week.

a cold front is expected to push across the area wednesday
night or early thursday as a developing wave of low pressure
tracks through the upper ohio valley. this low pressure is
expected to transfer to off the mid atlantic coast on thursday,
as an inverted surface trough axis hangs back towards the great
lakes through friday beneath troughing aloft. there is still
some disagreement regarding exactly how quickly this low
pressure develops and how far north/south it tracks...however,
the overall amount of spread has decreased, with previous
outlier models like the gfs (more amplified) and rrfs (farther
south) coming into better agreement with the overall guidance
suite. surface high pressure is still on track to begin building
in from the west saturday night into sunday behind the trough,
but will likely not move overhead until monday of next week.

rain chances quickly ramp up wednesday night as the developing
wave of low pressure and a cold front move across the region.
the placement and magnitude of rain wednesday night will be
contingent on exactly how quickly the low develops/deepens and
where it tracks, and finer details are still to be worked out.
there are hints at a swath of more moderate rain playing out
just northwest of the developing low wednesday night. some
guidance has more or less rain than our current forecast and
further adjustments in either direction are possible. the low
pressure exits east on thursday so some breaks in the rain are
expected, particularly farther west across the area where the
majority of the day will be rain- free. however, the lingering
inverted trough, initial north- northeast flow lake effect, and
an embedded shortwave rotating through the region thursday
evening will keep opportunities for showers going, especially
farther east across the area and south of the lake. there is
high confidence in all precip falling as rain through thursday,
with lows wednesday night mainly in the low- mid 40s with highs
on thursday in the mid-upper 40s. it will begin to turn blustery
on thursday with wind gusts to 30 mph possible.

precipitation will become increasingly lake-driven as we get to
the end of the week and head into the weekend. initial north-
northeast flow will gradually turn northwesterly this weekend.
northwest oh will trend mainly or completely dry heading into
the weekend while shower chances continue across much of the
rest of the area. the higher terrain south-southeast of lake
erie will see the most precip overall, with this type of flow
supporting a spray of less-organized lake effect that favors
the terrain. there`s quite a signal among nearly all guidance
for a lake huron connection bringing more persistent, organized,
and intense lake effect to a smaller portion of the area. this
will likely set up west of cleveland thursday into thursday
night and then drift around across the cleveland metro and
surrounding areas friday into saturday, before slowly shifting
east across the more traditional northeast oh snowbelt through
the weekend. instability becomes deep over the lake friday into
saturday as 500mb temperatures bottom out around -30c over the
12-15c lake waters, so any organized lake effect will have
intensity. the mid-levels begin gradually warming and drying
later saturday and beyond, meaning lake effect should begin
loosing coverage and intensity through the second half of the
weekend. that said, lingering lighter activity may take until
monday to fully wind down, especially downwind of lake huron.

temperatures aloft become cold enough for snow late thursday
night into friday, with 850mb temperatures bottoming out at -5
to -7c friday into saturday. the main limitation or uncertainty
regarding snow involves near-surface temperatures, given the
lack of arctic influence and modification from the still-mild
great lake waters. given the temperatures aloft, it`s likely we
see some snow mix in where precip is occurring away from the
lake each overnight/early morning period from thursday night
through saturday night. with deep instability over the lake, any
more intense or convective lake effect will likely mix with
graupel, and that can happen down to the lakeshore and even
during the "warmer" afternoon hours. impactful accumulations
remain rather unlikely. there remains a lower probability
scenario for localized lighter accumulations if steadier or more
intense precip impacts higher elevations during an overnight or
early morning period. the greatest odds may be friday night
into early saturday when 1000-500mb thickness values fall to an
impressive <528dam. highs are expected to range from the upper
30s to mid 40s friday and saturday before gradual modification
begins sunday. overnight lows thursday night will range from
just below freezing across northwest oh to mainly the mid to
upper 30s elsewhere, with similar or perhaps slightly cooler
values friday night. lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s
are generally in the forecast the rest of the weekend. it will
remain blustery/brisk friday into saturday.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions and fair weather skies are expected today and
tonight during this taf period. skies will be mostly clear with
some passing high cirrus at times today into tonight. winds
will be light from the southwest to west 5 to 10 knots through
this taf period.

outlook...non-vfr will be likely with low ceilings and periods
of rain showers wednesday night through the weekend. some wet
snow showers may also be possible at the end of the week and
weekend along with gusty winds up to 35 mph.

&&

.marine...
brisk southwest winds early this morning will shift westerly
later this morning as a cold front pushes across the lake.
speeds of 15-25 knots will build 4 to 7 foot waves across the
central and eastern basin, peaking this morning, and small craft
advisories are in effect from vermilion points east. while the
headlines expire by this evening, northwest winds remain a bit
brisk tonight so it will remain choppy.

a brief break in rough conditions is expected on the lake on
wednesday. northeast winds ramp up to 15-20kt wednesday night,
then gradually shift north and then northwesterly thursday
through the weekend. speeds will generally be 15-25kt thursday
through saturday, before more substantial weakening sunday into
early next week. winds are forecast to be strongest thursday
afternoon and evening, when sustained values briefly approach 30
knots in the forecast. small craft advisories will be needed
starting wednesday night or early thursday, with the risk for a
gale remaining low in the 10-30% range.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez145>147.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez148-
149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 101126
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
626 am est tue nov 10 2026

.key messages...

- sunshine today with highs into the low-mid 60s.

- a low pressure system moves through wednesday afternoon into
wednesday night with a period of rain.

- lake effect showers impact areas mainly west of us-31 in nw in
and far sw mi thursday through friday night. snow may mix in
by late thursday night into friday morning.

- below normal temperatures thursday through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 226 am est tue nov 10 2026

another pleasant and mild day today despite a weak, washed out,
frontal passage as another shortwave bypasses well north through the
northern and eastern great lakes. this flattened, high latitude,
flow then gives way to a full-latitude longwave trough over the
eastern conus by the second half of this week. this transition will
drive a compact shortwave southeast through the area wednesday
afternoon-evening. the associated frontal wave and pacific moisture
origins will bring chances (50-80%) for a period of rain during this
time, with a few heavier convective elements possible south of us-30
near the sfc low track and steeper mid level lapse rates.

colder air wraps in behind this low thursday into friday as several
more shortwave impulses drop through the region in deep northerly
flow. a secondary trough and steepening lapse rates with the cold
pool will keep chances for scattered rain showers in the forecast
area-wide into thursday. this chilly northerly flow (850 mb temps
fall to near -5c) brings about a full transition to lake effect rain
otherwise thursday through friday night. favorable long lake
fetch/convergence and thermal parameters will allow for more
organized lake effect banding to settle into our northerly flow lake
belts at times, mainly west of us-31 in far nw in (especially
laporte/starke counties thursday night-friday). wet-bulb zero
heights may collapse to less than 1 kft later thursday night into
friday morning just inland from the lake. the nbm and ensemble
guidance hint at the potential for slushy snow accums here (mainly
laporte/starke ct). confidence is low given lingering uncertainties
regarding low level flow trajectories, warm lake and marginally cold
nature to the incoming air mass.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 623 am est tue nov 10 2026

vfr conditions expected through the taf period. light westerly
winds less than 10 knots through the remainder of the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 101726
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1226 pm est tue nov 10 2026

.key messages...

- sunshine today with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

- rain chances increase late wednesday into thursday, with an
unsettled pattern continuing into the first half of the weekend.

- a much colder airmass arrives thursday, triggering lake effect
rain and snow showers late thursday through saturday.

&&

.aviation...

weak high pressure in place today maintaining clear post-frontal
skies. a few afternoon west-northwest gusts towards 20kts are
possible before winds lighten and turn variable overnight. high
clouds return early tonight as low pressure tracks into the upper
midwest.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 408 am est tue nov 10 2026

discussion...

mild and dry conditions define the start of the forecast period
today with temperature readings currently in the mid 40s across se
michigan. light southwest flow this morning will veer to the west-
northwest by mid day as a surface trough glances across the region.
not much of an impact to sensible weather aside from the wind shift,
although very strong isentropic downglide will reinforce static
stability aloft and dry weather. boundary layer growth gradually
erodes the inversion to bring high temperatures into the low 60s.

a more active pattern emerges for the second half of the week,
beginning with a pacific wave which was just sampled over the
pacific northwest. the pattern amplifies substantially wednesday as
a ~100 knot jet streak digs south and sends the pv anomaly into the
southern oh/tn valleys by 00z thursday. this drags the main height
fall center south of the state line, but does position se michigan
within a prolonged period of moist isentropic ascent wednesday
afternoon-early thursday morning. with cold air and a second wave
crashing in from the north, there is potential for fgen banding to
develop within the broader rain shield. if this occurs, a narrow
swath could see over a quarter inch of rain before lake effect kicks
in. the added cloud cover and beginnings of cold advection hold highs
wednesday in the low-mid 50s.

the low deepens and matures as it moves into the mid-atlantic
thursday morning, in part due to the trailing wave phasing into it.
the first implication of this is an increase in the northerly
gradient wind, which will become breezy (gusts of 25-30 mph). second
is the development of an inverted trough axis that will be one of
the focused opportunities for lake enhanced showers. thursday is
where precipitation type uncertainty first comes into play. forcing
along the surface trough may become very concentrated, producing
strong upward vertical motion that corresponds to intense
precipitation rates and diabatic cooling potential. on the other
hand, there are still differences in the timing and magnitude of the
trough along with the role of a warmer marine layer. for now, will
advertise potential for melting snowflakes to mix in as early as
thursday.

once this trough sweeps through, a more aggressive surge of cold
advection follows with h8 temperatures quickly dropping into the
negative single digits and fully activating the lake effect response
for friday. wet bulb zero heights gradually lower through the day
below 2.0 kft agl as post-low winds back to the northwest and advect
drier dewpoints into se michigan, increasing potential melting
snowflakes to reach the ground. forecast soundings show impressive
moisture depths above 10.0 kft agl for friday with steepening low
level lapse rates to support a convective/lake enhanced shower
environment. certainly some diabatic cooling potential here as well,
which allows for the snowflake potential despite highs reaching the
low 40s. a more localized detail is the lake huron convergence band
that appears in the bulk of model guidance. marine layer influence
will again struggle to get cold enough for snow, although diabatic
cooling can be sneaky in these early season events. moisture depths
gradually decrease through the day saturday while winds shift more to
the northwest, which generally shuts down precipitation chances. the
cooler airmass however sticks around through the weekend, with highs
thursday through the weekend in the 40s.

marine...

low pressure swings from ontario into quebec during the morning
hours as its attendant dry cold front crosses the central great
lakes. this leads to a west-northwesterly wind shift with an uptick
in speeds. improvements to mixing depths due to cold air advection
and mild water temperatures could lead to an occasional post-frontal
gale-force gust over portions of the northern huron basin, but
coverage and frequency appear too limited to warrant any gale-
related headlines. a small craft advisory remains in effect for the
thumb nearshores given a brief wave response, maximizing around 6
feet. the progressive pattern continues tonight into wednesday as
high pressure tries to build in, but gets displaced by surface low
pressure digging into the ohio valley wednesday night. gusts to
gales are possible thursday and/or friday with strong on-shore
northeasterly gradient flow stemming from the vicinity low. some
potential exists for a waterspout or two during this time-frame as
shower activity arises.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...mv
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.