Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
041
fxus61 kcle 110732
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
332 am edt tue aug 11 2026

.what has changed...
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region through tonight. with much of northern ohio
receiving 1 to 2+ inches of rain since sunday and another 1 to
2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts expected today,
have issued a flood watch for a large portion of northern ohio
from 11 am tuesday to 8 am wednesday. the system that has
impacted the region over the past several days will continue to
bring rain chances wednesday and now into thursday. the dry
weather has been delayed into friday and saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) additional showers and thunderstorms are expected through
thursday. the most impactful storms will be today and tonight,
as multiple rounds will move through the region with heavy
rainfall that may lead to flooding. severe weather is also
possible this afternoon as a line of storms may move through the
southwest half of the area, bringing a damaging wind threat to
the region.

2) dry weather is expected on friday through at least saturday
afternoon, giving a break in the active pattern. temperatures
and humidity will taper off with high pressure entering the
region.

3) unsettled weather may return starting saturday night and
remain through monday with scattered showers and storms in the
region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
yet another round of showers and storms are moving northeast
through northeast ohio early this morning with the third complex
in about 36 hours across the region. the next round of shower
and storm activity is already brewing in northern indiana and
southwestern lower michigan early this morning and will arrive
in the western portion of the forecast area right around
daybreak. with the latest storms wiping out much of the
instability and a strong near surface stable, the upper bound of
this activity will be limited but an organized storm or two is
possible with some marginally acceptable 0-3km shear around 30
kts in the region. this activity will move southeast through the
the forecast area this morning. there could be potential for
this activity to become severe later in the morning (much like
monday) as the surface stability wanes with daytime heating.

the big show for today will be a line of thunderstorms that will
develop with a shortwave along the front minnesota and iowa.
this line has great potential to be a healthy, severe mcs with
ample instability over the midwest and great support with the
shortwave aloft. the angle of this complex will largely take it
southwest of the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
however, the northeast extent of this line could reach into the
forecast area and bring severe, damaging wind gusts to the area.
if this complex does become organized and ends up more into the
area, then there could be potential for 75+ mph wind gusts.

several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region through tonight. with much of northern ohio
receiving 1 to 2+ inches of rain since sunday and another 1 to
2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts expected today,
have issued a flood watch for a large portion of northern ohio
from 11 am tuesday to 8 am wednesday.

once this larger mcs exits the region, this should allow for
convective activity to wane for tuesday night into the first
part of wednesday as the surface front will be pushed well south
of the area. the front will make a resurgence into region later
on wednesday into thursday as additional shortwaves in the
northwest flow will move through the region and help support
more showers and storms. the potential for severe weather and
flooding is becoming more limited on wednesday with the front
starting so far south. with the front returning and lasting into
thursday, there could be some low end severe and flooding
potential with storms on thursday.

key message 2...
with the early week system slowing down, high pressure will be
delayed in entering the region until friday. this will bring dry
weather and less humidity into the region, giving some relief
from the active and humid conditions from earlier in the week. a
delayed surface high will allow for dry weather to persist into
saturday, which will be a welcomed treat for the first half of
the weekend. temperatures will fall back into the 70s with the
cooler system overhead.

key message 3...
the upper ridge axis will push east on saturday night and allow
for northwest flow to return to the great lakes region. a
shortwave within the northwest flow will move through the region
and support a low pressure system across the area. this will
bring rain chances starting on saturday night with the bulk of
the wet weather on sunday and potentially into monday. there is
low confidence on any severe weather or flooding potential at
this time.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the taf period. the first round of storms will push
northeast across ne oh and nw pa over the few hours with
another round of showers and storms likely moving into the local
area between about 09z and 15z this morning. some showers and
storms may be around throughout the remainder of the morning and
into the afternoon, but confidence in placement and coverage is
too low to include in the taf at this point. another complex of
storms will likely push southeast across most of the area late
this afternoon into this evening with dry weather expected
behind the storms towards the end of the taf period. as with
previous days, there is uncertainty with the coverage/timing of
storms this afternoon into this evening so amendments will
likely be needed.

any showers/storms could produce non-vfr conditions in lower
ceilings and reduced visibilities. outside of storms, areas of
mvfr ceilings and perhaps visibilities are possible this
morning, primarily across ne oh and nw pa. any stronger storms
could produce erratic and strong wind gusts, but otherwise
winds will largely be out of the west/southwest at 10 knots or
less before becoming light and variable after 00z wednesday.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected in multiple
rounds of convective activity through thursday. low ceilings
possible outside of storms at times as well. non-vfr possible in
showers and thunderstorms saturday afternoon into saturday
night.

&&

.marine...
the average flow on lake erie will remain southwesterly today
with showers and storms moving northeast across the lake early
this morning. a large complex of storms is expected to pass
southwest of the lake later today and may shift flow more to the
west. this complex will drive a front further away from the lake
and may allow for more variable flow through wednesday. a larger
trough will move through the region on wednesday night into
thursday, which will allow for northwest flow to develop on the
lake. high pressure will build into the region on friday and
bring northerly flow to the basin. this system will move east on
saturday, bringing a window of easterly flow before the next
system arrives later in the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch from 11 am edt this morning through wednesday
morning for ohz003-006>011-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...15
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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007
fxus63 kiwx 110539
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
139 am edt tue aug 11 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms will be possible through mid morning
in some areas, with heavy rain the main concern. a line of
strong to severe storms, accompanied by damaging winds, looks
to arrive this afternoon.

- the potential for flooding may increase today from both recent
rainfall and additional heavy rainfall through tonight. a
flood watch is in effect for most of the area.

- rain chances may linger through the week, especially south of
us-30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 129 am edt tue aug 11 2026

quasi-stationary boundary remains in nearly the same area as 24
hours ago, from near davenport, ia east to chicago and then curving
towards detroit. much like last night, an area of showers and storms
has exited the forecast area with attention turning upstream across
e ia into n il where cams develop additional convection over the
next several hours and track e or se. as of 5z a few cells have
popped from near gary nw to poplar grove il. intensification has
been on the slower side, but llj is starting to increase with 25 to
30 kts now noted on vads in iowa and central il and mesoanalysis
shows a pocket of over 2000 j/kg of mlcape. pops have been adjusted
somewhat, but may need further changes later depending on evolution.
a threat for large hail, locally gusty winds, frequent lightning and
heavy rain would be the main concerns.

towards 12z most of the activity looks to push away with several
cams hinting at new development along the washed out boundary from w
of chicago to white county. as the low level flow increases from the
sw, this looks to shift ne allowing a small window for rapid
destabilization. with mlcape over 2000 j/kg, dcape over 1000 j/kg
and at least modest shear. a line of showers and storms is expected
to develop upstream and dive quickly se, arriving as early as 18z in
w/nw areas. some concerns that the morning convection could impact
the overall strength of the line and possibly focus the greater wind
threat sw of us. upper level flow, approaching wave and other
factors above all point towards the potential of a higher end wind
event along with a small chance of brief spin ups. new swody1
maintains the enhanced risk across the sw half of the area with a
cig1 hatching for the increased wind threat. alignment of best pops
may change this morning as we see what, if any impacts occur from
overnight and early morning convection.

in addition to the severe threat, flooding concerns will remain on
the front burner as swaths of heavier rainfall have occurred across
the cwa over the past couple of days, most recently in se area.
given the lower confidence on the evolution of convection through
early evening was going to hold on any flood watch, but after
collaboration in house and surrounding offices decided to hoist a
flood watch for all of our in and oh counties with most of our mi
counties spared of the worst rainfall.

the line should quickly push out near/after 00z wed with the frontal
boundary finally getting a nudge south into central in. does this
mean that wed and beyond will see much calmer conditions...probably
not as the entire upper level flow really doesn`t change much the
remainder of the week and troughs moving through the area will cause
the front to shift north and south. as a result, pops remain riddled
in several period through the remainder of the forecast. given the
challenges the next 12 to 24 hours, anything outside tonight was
left alone.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 129 am edt tue aug 11 2026

low confidence forecast continues on impacts and timing at both
sites over the next 6 to 9 hours with somewhat better confidence
closer to 18z and beyond. stationary front still positioned in
the vicinity of ksbn with recent radar/sat trends showing some
new development from kgyy towards ksbn. this may be short lived
or continue to develop and shift overnight. have kept semi
conservative for now, but amendments could be needed sooner than
later. kfwa may miss most of the overnight convection, but have
stuck with a prob30 just in case. focus then shifts to upstream
convection that forms across portions of ia/mn and wi and then
dives se during the afternoon. questions remain on the track and
intensity of this line with the main concerns being damaging
winds. have continued with a prob group at both sites for
locally stronger winds (only 30 kts now, but could be much
higher). after 00z, the storms should be clear of both locations
but will need to watch for some stratus and fog behind the
front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning through
this evening for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch from 11 am edt this morning through this evening
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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209
fxus63 kdtx 110634
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
234 am edt tue aug 11 2026

.key messages...

- a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with
isolated storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and
heavy rainfall. greater potential exists between i-94 and the ohio
border.

- the potential exists for showers and thunderstorms to develop both
wednesday and thursday.

- drier conditions develop friday and friday night.

- renewed chance of storms and heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

large scale pattern will remain governed by lower amplitude mid
level west-northwest featuring copious minor perturbations through
mid week period. low level frontal boundary effectively stalled near
the in/oh/mi state line marking the northern expanse of the deeper
instability reservoir that resides just to the south. pockets of
convective development may continue to manifest this morning in the
vicinity of the boundary, particularly as the low level jet folds
into the existing frontal slope. this will offer a lower probability
for mainly areas of south of i-94 to witness some early day
activity. otherwise, attention today squarely on behavior of the
convective episode now organizing across south dakota. backed by a
pronounced vort max and extremely receptive downstream environment,
general expectation remains for a forward propagating mcs to
accelerate into southern wi/northern il by midday. from there,
confidence in trajectory declines as a subset of the model solution
space shows preference toward a path into the deeper instability
parked to the south, while others do allow at least a portion of the
system to arrive locally during the mid afternoon to early evening
window. greater potential with southward extent /particularly
between the i-94 corridor and ohio border/, where adequate deep
layer shear and mlcape in excess of 2000 j/kg would support deeper
convective organization with an associated damaging wind gust risk.
conditional localized heavy rainfall threat also certainly exists.
high temperatures low to mid 80s again today.

stagnant large scale pattern ensures similar underlying
thermodynamic conditions exist both wednesday and thursday.
convective potential within this environment continues to carry
strong reliance on finding tangible forced ascent in the form of
additional shortwave energy to engage a profile featuring a standard
degree of diurnal destabilization for mid august. perusal of model
guidance establishes little confidence in offering a more targeted
opportunity. absent of this, expectation for generally dry
conditions to hold outside of perhaps a smaller scale response along
any lake breeze activity. outgoing forecast offers a more broad
brushed chance mention highlighting the peak heating window each
day.

high pressure briefly increases influence by friday beneath
confluence mid level northwest flow. this offers dry conditions to
finish the week, as deep layer subsidence exists within a slight
cooler and less humid conditions. shortwave upper ridge will roll
into the region friday night and linger into at least the first half
of the weekend. there is potential for a ridge running wave to lift
across the region over the weekend, but again carries low
predictable at this stage. temperatures over the weekend generally
remain seasonable.

&&

.marine...

a stalled front near the southern michigan border will continue to
be a focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the next couple
days. this will mostly affect lake erie and lake st clair but there
is a chance of a few isolated showers farther north over southern
lake huron. a strong complex of storms is forecast to track from the
midwest across southern lake mi and toward the area this afternoon
which could present a severe wind threat. outside of any convection,
high pressure to the north of the front will provide generally light
and variable winds through mid week at 10 knots or less. later in
the week, a weakly organized area of low pressure becomes develops
across the northeast, followed by high pressure of 30.1 inches
gradually dropping southeast across the central and eastern great
lakes. this will favor an uptick in northwest winds thursday and
friday.

&&

.hydrology...

while the axis of heaviest rainfall associated with repeated rounds
of thunderstorms will remain to the south through tonight, there is
potential for heavier rainfall to develop should more organized
thunderstorms track into the area. the greater potential exists
generally south of i-96 this afternoon and evening. rainfall rates
in excess of one inch per hour will be possible, which could lead to
minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1142 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

aviation...

lingering stalled frontal boundary near the state line supports
continuing scattered convection over far southern se mi. terminals
look to stay just north of this development keeping conditions dry.
slightly better chances late tuesday afternoon-evening as a
convective complex drops out of the upper midwest into the southern
great lakes. high-res models still vary on the exact southward drift
of this line so will maintain prob30 groups to all terminals though
the detroit terminals stand the best potential at seeing
showers/storms.

d21/dtw convection... scattered thunderstorms are possible near the
state border tonight though chances are low for storms north enough
to reach dtw. another window for convection comes late tuesday
afternoon-evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this tonight, low to moderate late tuesday
afternoon.

* moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less through tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......drk
hydrology....mr
aviation.....kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.