Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
427
fxus61 kcle 100809
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
409 am edt sat oct 10 2026

.what has changed...
winds have trended up along the lakeshore areas of erie county
pennsylvania tonight into sunday. wind gusts up to 40 mph are
possible.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of moderate to heavy rain and breezy conditions are
expected tonight through sunday associated with the remnants of
isaias. winds will be highest along the erie lakeshore where gusts
of 35-40 mph are possible.

2) a cold front will move south across the area tuesday afternoon
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
skies will be mostly cloudy today with a mix of mid and high
level clouds. isaias made landfall last evening as a hurricane
along the florida coast near destin and has since continued to
track north while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. rain
associated with isaias will spread north across the local area
between 11 pm and 4 am and will be moderate to heavy at times
through sunday afternoon. rainfall amounts are still forecast to
range from a half inch to an inch and a half although some
locally higher amounts of 2 inches or more are possible, mainly
across northeast ohio. streamflow values are currently low and
we expect to be able to handle most of the rain without many
flooding concerns. people should clear drains of leaves and
debris to reduce flooding potential. the nearly vertically
stacked system will move from central tennessee around 06z
tonight to west virginia by 18z sunday. mid level dry air does
wrap north of the low during the late morning and early
afternoon giving way to some breaks in precipitation. depending
on the exact track of the system, showers are likely to fill
back in, especially across eastern portions of the area with a
few thunderstorms possible. will need to monitor for possible
higher rain rates with thunderstorms that could cause localized
flooding problems. the bulk of the rain will exit the area to
the east by 8 pm sunday.

in addition to the rain, southeast winds will become breezy saturday
evening as the surface pressure gradient tightens. strong high
pressure will be over new england and the remnants of isaias
will be approaching from the tennessee valley. a low level jet
of 35-45 knots will move north tonight and could result in
stronger wind gusts along the erie pa shoreline. winds will be
southeasterly which is favorable for enhanced downsloping and
gusts of 30-40 mph are possible, mainly before the steady rain
begins. have increased winds in the forecast for late tonight
early sunday morning but are forecast to remain below advisory
criteria. elsewhere wind gusts should tend to peak around 30
mph.

key message 2...
the remnants of isaias will be off the new england coast by
monday morning. ridging builds overhead, both at the surface and
aloft, and breezy southwesterly winds will return on monday
afternoon. monday will be another dry and warm day with highs in
the 70-80 degree range. low pressure slides east into the great
lakes region on tuesday ahead of a trough that starts to break
down the upper ridge. dewpoints near 60 degrees will allow for
some instability to develop ahead of the front with potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes
south tuesday afternoon and evening. highest potential for
showers and thunderstorms will be focused generally east of
i-71. high temperatures on wednesday will be nearly 10 degrees
cooler than tuesday. a stronger cold front is expected on
friday, ushering in the coolest air of the season to start next
weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the taf period for all
terminals except kcle, which will see deteriorating conditions
after 06z tomorrow with rain showers. mid to high level clouds
are expected through the day today across the region. winds will
be out of the southeast at 120-140 at 5-10 knots throughout the
period. keri will see elevated winds gusting to above 20 knots
after 00z due to downsloping. kcle will begin gusting above 20
knots out of 130-140 after 06z tomorrow.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in moderate to heavy rain showers
expected early sunday lingering into the evening. non-vfr
possible again on tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
southeast winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 knots tonight
ahead of the remnants of isaias. conditions will be just below small
craft advisory and will monitor for possible strengthening.
winds are forecast to decrease as they back to northeast and
eventually north behind the departing system.

we have two more windows of enhanced winds this week. the next
will be on tuesday afternoon and night behind a cold front.
north winds of 15-20 knots behind the cold front will result in
waves of 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters on the central and
eastern basin. small craft advisories will likely be needed.
another stronger window of winds occurs behind a cold front
friday night into saturday. winds could reach 30 knots and
another round of small craft advisories will likely be needed
again.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...23
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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210
fxus63 kiwx 101035
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
635 am edt sat oct 10 2026

.key messages...

- periods of light rain expected this evening into sunday
morning, especially east of interstate 69 where up to a half
an inch of rain may fall.

- an active pattern sets up for the second half of next week
with gusty winds, showers and possible thunderstorms, then
turning colder into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 am edt sat oct 10 2026

another day of well above normal temperatures is in store as some
waa continues. remnants of "isaias" will continue slowly north
through the day and eventually more northeast tonight into sunday.
bands of cirrus will work across the area, generally thin in nature
until the circulation edges closer. scattered showers may quickly
move north across much of the area near/after 3z sun then steadier
precip arriving after 6z and lingering along and east of interstate
69. qpf is somewhat lower than past days with amounts possibly at
most less than one half inch. model blends still keeping some slgt
chc pops for thunder. lapse rates not overly impressive, but some
elevated instability is noted (negative showalters). will leave in
for the time being.

with regards to temps on sunday, some guidance suggests high temps
could be several degrees cooler (mainly east) which could have some
validity with the extensive cloud cover and precip. these temps seem
to be in the lower percentile range, so have left previous highs
alone and pass onto the next shift.

lull in precip chances arrives sunday night into monday, before a
series of weak waves and fronts arrive for mid week. thereafter, med
range models have sort of diverged some on the degree of phasing of
a weaker northern and stronger southern stream wave. pops remain in
place with signs still pointing towards cooling for the weekend, but
the degree of cooling and amount of precip is in question with these
variations.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 635 am edt sat oct 10 2026

mid/upper level clouds will continue to increase today but
relatively dry low levels will maintain vfr conditions. light
rain showers expected at kfwa after 06z tonight with some mvfr
ceilings likely closer to 12z sunday as tropical moisture plume
lifts north. there is also a low (20%) chance of an embedded
thunderstorm but not worth including in the taf at this point.
dry/vfr conditions expected to persist at ksbn given eastward
displacement of better moisture.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 100724
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
324 am edt sat oct 10 2026

.key messages...

- much warmer today with temperatures in the upper 70s.

- next chance of rain arrives sunday, focused over the
southeasternmost areas, tied to the remnants of isaias.

- very mild, dry again monday with highs in the upper 70s to 80.

- scattered shower chances monday night-tuesday tied to a passing
cold front. this front brings a return to a more typical fall
pattern for the mid to late week period.

&&

.discussion...

surface warm front still in the process of lifting across the
central portions of lower mi eventually clears to the north by late
morning ushering in respectable southerly warm advection. 850mb temps
quickly rise into the mid teens c supporting high temps in the mid
to upper 70s.

remnants of isaias are expected to track along the western spine of
the southern appalachians tonight into sunday before deflecting into
the mid-atlantic by sunday night. locally, the consequence of this
more southerly track is the bulk of the northern rain shield holds
to our south and east over ohio/lake erie. as such, there has been a
notable downward trend in most model qpf towards a more 0.1-0.25"
range along the st. clair-erie corridor and ohio border areas- where
highest confidence in showers exist. shower coverage, duration, and
qpf decreases further north and west you go outside of metro detroit
as building western great lakes mid-level ridging noses in towards
the saginaw bay sunday. rain chances come to an end by sunday
evening as the system shifts east of the appalachians.

dry, very mild conditions remain in place for monday as mid-level
ridging flattens overtop of lower mi. this collapsing ridge allows
the core of the upper midwest airmass to fold into the area bringing
850mb temps towards the upper teens c leading to widespread 70s with
a shot at some seeing 80. a shift back to a more typical fall
pattern arrives by monday night-tuesday as a cold front sagging out
of northern ontario finally reaches/crosses the central great lakes.
upper plains mid-level shortwave rides along this frontal boundary
as it crosses supporting the region`s next chances for scattered
showers. post-frontal airmass marks the return of average
temperatures with mid/late week highs in the lower 60s and overnight
lows in the lower 40s.

&&

.marine...

the combination of high pressure over new england and the
approaching remnants from hurricane isaias will work to
strengthening the pressure gradient across the great lakes today.
this will bring breezy southeast flow with gusts ranging between 20
to 25 knots through south and central lake huron, sporadically
peaking around 30 knots over north-central lake huron where the
fetch is more favorable. small craft advisories are now in place
from port austin to port sanilac given increasing wave heights
building in by the late morning hours. sporadic gust to gales will
be possible across north-central lake huron, however, confidence in
achieving gales will be very low noting high stability over the
lakes which will greatly hamper or nullify any mixing of stronger
winds aloft.

breezy conditions will subside through tomorrow as a ridge of high
pressure briefly fills in. remnant moisture from the tropical system
will also bring the chance for rain showers. otherwise, on and off
rain showers and some low-end storm chances will be possible through
next week as a couple of systems moves through.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1137 pm edt fri oct 9 2026

aviation...

a weakening elevated warm front will sustain areas of mid level
clouds (above 6k feet overnight). the 00z dtx sounding indicated
ample low level dry air. this will keep the clouds high based. large
scale subsidence will dominate se mi through saturday afternoon,
maintaining clear skies other than high based clouds. there will be
a slight uptick in the southeast winds with strong high pressure
centered over the northeastern us.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 4 am edt sunday for
lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......am
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.