Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
115
fxus61 kcle 170902
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
502 am edt fri apr 17 2026

.what has changed...
have issued a brief dense fog advisory for ne oh and nw pa for
the fog and low stratus pushing south from lake erie this
morning. the potential for severe weather on saturday has
expanded west with a slightly slowing cold front. the confidence
for frost/freeze headlines is greatly increasing for sunday and
monday nights.

&&

.key messages...
1) fog and low stratus developing this morning could allow for
poor visibility conditions for the morning commute, especially
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

2) one more round of severe weather is expected on saturday
afternoon with higher confidence in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or
two are all possible with storms.

3) a cold air mass across the region will allow for residual rain
and some isolated snow chances on sunday. the cold air will
allow for frost/freeze potential on sunday and monday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a brief air mass change is occurring across the region this
morning behind a cold front with 50s temperatures overtaking a
relatively moist low level atmosphere and moving over lake erie,
which is also around 50 degrees at the surface. with this cooler
air mass, fog is developing across the lake and low stratus is
beginning to push into far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. conditions should continue to deteriorate through
the morning hours. have issued a brief dense fog advisory for
ne oh and nw pa, as visibility falls this morning. fog should
mix out by this afternoon with southerly return flow coming back
into the area.

key message 2...
with several days of messaging in spc outlooks, most of the
attention of the forecast is on the severe weather potential on
saturday with a strong, pattern changing cold front. from a
synoptic standpoint, the setup remains very similar to previous
forecast cycles with a deep upper trough entering the central us
and support a low pressure system through the great lakes region
and an associated cold front. the low will pass to the northwest
on saturday, while the surface front will cross the area by
saturday evening. the environment ahead of the front remains
conditional for severe weather, as there will be upstream
activity today that will eventually reach the forecast area as
decaying convection/outflow by saturday morning. this could
limit the atmosphere recovery for the entire severe weather
setup. however, strong low level flow with 30 kts at 925 mb
could allow for some quick recovery in the warm sector with
temperatures into the 70s and dew points trying to return into
the 60s. the more recovery into the region will dictate how
expansive the severe weather threat could be on saturday.

overall, the main change with the forecast this morning is that
the timing of the front has slowed just slightly by an hour or
two, which may allow more time for a recovered atmosphere and
organization of showers and storms ahead of the front to be over
northwest and north central ohio before pushing east.
therefore, the day 2 slight risk for severe weather from the
storm prediction center is a couple counties west, now reaching
the interstate 71 corridor. all severe hazards are on the table
with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and/or a tornado or two.

key message 3...
after the strong cold front on saturday, a cooler than normal
air mass will settle into the region for saturday night through
tuesday morning with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. a residual trough across the region
on sunday will support some scattered rain showers and in the
upslope regions of nw pa and far ne oh, there could be some
brief changeover to snow on sunday and sunday night, but
snow accumulations aren`t expected. the main concern for the
period will be the low temperatures near/below freezing and if
the atmosphere will remain favorable for frost conditions across
the forecast area. the frost/freeze program is in effect for all
of ohio and the probability of headlines for sunday and monday
nights continue to increase with every model cycle. warming
conditions are expected on tuesday, ending the frost/freeze
threat for the forecast period.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
the main message for aviation weather and expected impacts will
be the potential for ifr to lifr conditions developing through
early friday morning. skies are starting out mostly clear this
evening but areas of fog and low stratus are expected to rapidly
develop between 08z and 12z this morning. there is the potential
for denser fog impacting tol, fdy, cle, and eri. elsewhere light
fog of 1sm to 3sm will be likely. ceilings are expected to
develop between 300 to 900 feet through early this morning. the
fog and low stratus will rapidly erode away by mid to late
morning between 13z to 15z. vfr conditions and mostly clear
skies will return by midday friday and continue through the end
of this taf period friday evening. winds will be rather light
around 5 knots and somewhat variable during this time window as
high pressure moves across the region.

outlook...periodic rain showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
are expected during the predawn hours of saturday morning
through saturday evening. additional periods of rain with non-
vfr should occur overnight saturday night through sunday
evening. rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at
times sunday morning and again sunday evening.

&&

.marine...
dense fog has developed over the lake this morning and otherwise,
quiet marine conditions are expected today. weak high pressure
will move across the area. winds will be light and variable
today with light waves expected on the lake. winds will become
southeasterly to southerly 5 to 10 knots tonight. a cold front
will approach the lake from the west on saturday. southerly
winds will increase 10 to 20 knots ahead of the front. behind
the front, westerly winds 10 to 20 knots are expected saturday
evening and night. conditions may get to a sca headline needed.
westerly winds 10 to 20 knots will continue on sunday. another
cold front will move across lake erie sunday night with
northerly winds 10 to 15 knots expected into monday. high
pressure and lighter winds will build in over the lake late
monday into monday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...dense fog advisory until 11 am edt this morning for ohz011>014-
089.
pa...dense fog advisory until 11 am edt this morning for paz001>003.
marine...dense fog advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lez142>149-
162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 170813
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
413 am edt fri apr 17 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog this morning, many areas will become dense
especially near lake michigan.

- unseasonably warm on friday with highs near 80 degrees.

- a round of showers and thunderstorms track through friday night
into saturday morning. a few storms could become severe with
damaging winds as the primary threat.

- cooler air arrives saturday night into early next week. this
may bring frost and freeze concerns, especially early monday
morning.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 334 am edt fri apr 17 2026

marine air from lake michigan and a still very moist surface due
to recent rains trapped beneath an inversion with decent radiational
cooling conditions with the clearing skies has allowed for areas
of fog to begin enveloping the area. many locations already as
of 07z have been reporting 1/4 mile or less. a dense fog
advisory is in place through 8 am edt this morning to address
this hazard. there was a bit of uncertainty as to how far south
in the cwa this would spread but patches of dense fog will be
likely in all areas so opted to include the entire cwa under the
advisory out of an abundance of caution especially with the
thicker fog during the morning commute. if travelling this
morning, slow down and allow for greater following and stopping
distances.

after 8 am or so diurnal warming will begin and start to allow
for winds to mix down and help to clear out the fog for most
areas, however locations near lake michigan may take a bit
longer to mix out.

the focus then turns to the approaching cold front from the west
associated with a surface low moving through iowa into south
central wi later today. ahead of the cold front, will be much
above normal temperatures with highs across northern in in the
upper 70s to low 80s and surface dew points in the upper 50s to
low 60s. around 1500 j/kg of mucape will be available and bulk
shear values around 35 to 45 kts. with the expected linear
convective line pushing into the cwa around 11 pm edt tonight a
few pockets of helicity with values around 200 to 300 m2/s2
ahead of the front may remain and allow for a few tornadoes
along with the main wind threat but with the less than ideal
diurnal timing may lack the better surface instability which
will minimize the tornado threat. will need to monitor this
carefully later today to get a better idea of the actual
environmental ingredients present. with the front moving through
overnight into saturday morning the remaining activity will move
easterly through the rest of the cwa and would expect the
activity to be on the decrease into the morning hours as the
storms likely become more cold pool dominant. will need to
monitor for some nuisance type flooding possible with the very
wet surface still in place and any additional rainfall will be
quick to pool and pond.

a drier patter arrives this weekend along with cooler
temperatures (highs in the upper 40s to low 50s) into the
beginning of next week. will need to monitor for the potential
for some frost and even freeze conditions especially monday
morning with lows on sunday morning in the 30s and colder yet on
monday with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. by tuesday, broad
upper level ridging over the central conus will begin pushing
eastward into the region and we will see a warming trend return
with highs on tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s. highs in the
70s will be expected through the rest of next week. a few
showers and thunderstorms for wednesday and again next friday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 125 am edt fri apr 17 2026

vfr conditions initially this forecast period, however with an
inversion developing trapping moist lake mi marine air and
the moist surface conditions in place from recent rainfall, will
see fog develop and gradually thicken overnight as temperatures
slowly drop for both taf sites. mvfr conditions will become
ifr/mvfr in reduced cigs/vsbys with vsbys dropping after 05z
fri for both sites. improvements in vsbys will begin around 12z
fri with increases in diurnal southerly winds which will
increase mixing. gusts around 20 kts expected through the
evening. an approaching cold front from the west will increase
precipitation chances in thunderstorms in which a few of the
storms may become strong to severe after 00z sat and spread
eastward into saturday morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...dense fog advisory until 8 am edt /7 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
348 am edt fri apr 17 2026

.key messages...

- a dense fog advisory is in effect through 10 am for all of se
michigan.

- dry today before a strong cold front brings rain and a few
thunderstorms late tonight into saturday morning.

- breezy and much colder sunday with a few lake showers mixing with
wet snowflakes at times.

- seasonably cold monday morning with wind chills in the low 20s and
freeze conditions increasingly likely.

&&

.discussion...

dense fog has been expanding inland overnight from both lake
michigan and lake huron. strong isentropic downglide has established
a dry and statically stable airmass aloft, efficiently trapping
moist boundary layer conditions characterized by dewpoints still in
the low 50s. nearly all sites are now reporting 1/4 to 1/2 mile
visibility. a dense fog advisory has been issued for all of se
michigan as a result. the fog layer lifts to a stratus deck with the
start of the diurnal cycle before scattering out this afternoon.
brief period of mid-level ridging/height rises affords a pleasant
spring day across se michigan, as daytime highs climb into the upper
60s to low 70s. should see a pronounced marine influence on highs
for the east side of the cwa where east flow off the lakes keeps
temperatures several degrees cooler than inland locations. dry
weather is expected amidst a much drier airmass in comparison to the
last few days, as pwats fall to around 0.5".

quiet conditions are short-lived with the next round of
rain/thunderstorms expected late tonight-saturday. convection
initiates over wi/ia this afternoon along a strong cold front,
propagating into the instability plume that spills into western
lower michigan this evening. hi-res consensus has this line
outrunning the instability axis by the time it reaches se michigan
(after 06z/2am local) which keeps the swody1 risk to our west. any
instability that does advect into the area remains weak and
elevated, favoring mostly showers with some embedded/decaying
thunderstorms most likely west of i-75/us-23. organized severe
weather is not expected at this time. a discussion of heavy rain
potential can be found in the hydrology section. a second fine line
of convection is possible saturday morning along the cold frontal
passage itself. this is a sneakier set up that lacks deep convective
potential, but occurs in the backdrop of strong synoptic lift, low
level wind shear, and steep low level lapse rates. thinking this
could manifest as a thunderless line of convection that could
mechanically mix gusty winds (40 knot llj at h8) to the surface. the
front will also be characterized by a sharp drop in temperatures.
highs in the mid to upper 60s occur mid-morning followed by falling
temperatures through the afternoon. the cold advection increases
mixing depths to continue to tap into the llj winds, maintaining
breezy conditions for the rest of the weekend.

a much cooler airmass settles in for sunday and monday as the parent
low deepens and sends an elongated lobe of vorticity across the
great lakes. this draws the thermal trough even further south
allowing h8 temperatures to drop into the negative single digits
sunday and the negative teens monday morning. highs in the 40s
expected both days, while the coldest period will be monday morning
as lows dip into the 20s. several additional shortwaves ripple
across the great lakes with broad troughing settling in through
monday. a few showers are possible in this pattern, with potential
for wet snowflakes to mix in with rain due to the cool wet bulb
profiles. that said, low coverage and intensity to shower activity
is expected given an overall lack of column moisture. a warm up is
then expected tuesday onward with the return of southwest flow.

&&

.marine...

dense fog advisories are in effect through mid morning before fog
gradually improves through the latter half of the morning and
afternoon. region holds under high pressure today maintaining a
brief period of dry conditions and lighter winds. winds eventually
organize and strengthen out of the southeast this evening in
response to low pressure tracking into northern ontario. moderate
southerly winds with peak gusts in the 25-30kt range expected
tonight before flipping to the west-northwest daytime saturday with
the passage of a respectable cold front. gusts along/immediately
following the front top out around 30kts. another round of showers
and thunderstorms are likely in advance of said front. core of the
colder trailing airmass arrives sunday reinvigorating northwesterly
winds supporting another period of gusts around 30kts. while a
couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential remains low
(<30%). strong high pressure then slides across the central great
lakes for monday.

&&

.hydrology...

a strong cold front tracks across se michigan late tonight into
saturday morning leading to another round of rain and embedded
thunderstorms. basin wide rainfall amounts of a half inch to
localized one inch are possible between late tonight and mid-day
saturday. this additional rain will fall on already saturated soils
and rising area rivers, worsening existing ponding and/or flooding.
additional rises on area rivers will be possible, with several
rivers already in flood stage (saginaw, tittabawassee, cass).

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1117 pm edt thu apr 16 2026

aviation...

clouds associated with earlier storms have cleared the area. this
opens the door for dense fog development through the night as very
moist boundary layer continues to cool through the early morning
hours. expecting some coverage of ifr to lifr to accompany the fog
with several locations near the lakes already seeing very low
visibility. fog is expected to lift later tomorrow morning, but will
maintain some sct lower clouds into tomorrow afternoon as models
point towards an inversion trapping boundary layer moisture, which
could support bkn coverage. expect winds to remain light and turn
south-southeasterly tomorrow with mostly vfr skies by mid-late
afternoon.

dtw/d21 convection...moist surface conditions will support fog
development and ifr to possible lifr conditions tonight that will
gradually lift tomorrow morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5000 ft early tonight.

* medium for ceilings below 200ft or visibilities below 1/2sm late
tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz361>363-421-
422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt saturday for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm edt saturday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......kdk
hydrology....mv
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.