Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 261922
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
322 pm edt fri jun 26 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast. still anticipating
a prolonged period of heat and humidity next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through saturday. no significant impacts are expected.

2) there is high confidence for a prolonged period of heat and
humidity to arrive across the region beginning on monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
starting to see some radar returns arrive northeast into the
area this afternoon, though upstream observations reveal much of
this activity remains light and generally a few hundredths or
less. mainly light and periodic rain showers and isolated
thunder will continue through saturday as waves of weak
isentropic ascent overrun the stationary front just south of the
area. there is a low chance for some heavier rain later this
evening and overnight near the us-30 corridor as the low- level
jet increases to around 20 to 25 knots, though not anticipating
any significant impacts.

key message 2...
there continues to be high confidence in a prolonged period of
heat and humidity arriving into the area beginning on monday as
a large upper-level ridge develops across the eastern conus.
currently, we are anticipating daily highs monday through friday
in the 90s and can`t rule out a few spots briefly hitting 100
across northwest ohio at times. humidity will also be on the
rise, with heat indices generally ranging between 100 to 105.
given the prolonged nature of the heat and humidity and minimal
nighttime relief with lows in the 70s, heat headlines will be
needed across most, if not all areas beginning monday.

given the location of the ridge axis and associated subsidence, rain
chances through much of the week will remain low. at this time, rain
and thunderstorm chances appear more favorable towards the end of
the week as some guidance begins to break down the ridge, though
confidence remains low.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
expecting low level clouds to fill in across the south, building
northward, through the remainder of the daytime hours today.
ceilings then fall into mvfr with showers also building in from
the south after 03z tonight. expect low end mvfr ceilings or
terminals like mfd, fdy, and yng to reach ifr ceilings tonight,
and possibly mvfr during shower activity at all terminals except
tol/eri where rain chances are not quite high enough. slow
improvement of ceiling expected after 12z saturday. surface
winds less than 12kts.


outlook...non-vfr continuing with scattered rain showers on
saturday. non-vfr possible in fog/mist sunday morning.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds 10kts this evening will increase to 10-20kts
saturday and corresponding wave heights to 2-3ft for the western and
central basins of lake erie, and 1-2ft further east. winds then ease
back to 10kts sunday and wave heights around 1ft. winds more light
and variable monday, but could set up for a lake breeze and
afternoon chop 1-2ft in the nearshore zones would become possible.
offshore winds tuesday 10-15kts, mainly southwesterly, and wave
heights 2ft or less in the nearshore zones.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 261738
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
138 pm edt fri jun 26 2026

.key messages...

- light rain or sprinkles will persist into early evening north
of us-30 with light to occasionally moderate rain across the
south. somewhat better chances for moderate to locally heavy
rain may arrive late evening into the overnight along/south of
us-24, but confidence is low.

- dangerous heat and humidity is anticipated starting at early
as monday, with the greatest impacts likely tuesday into at
least friday as heat indices climb above 100 degrees each
afternoon with little overall cooling at night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 114 pm edt fri jun 26 2026

initial focus remains on potential for measurable rainfall
across portions of the area into tonight which may be the last
we see for a while. radar is showing returns well north even
into southern lake mi and eventually lower mi. however, despite
the noted lift the air mass is a good deal drier with further
north extent as depicted by mainly mid/high clouds. further
south, cigs are a bit lower, but still rather high with
observations showing no real impacts or even measurable rain so
far. as moisture continues to increase this afternoon across the
south and pockets of isentropic lift continues there will be
some uptick in coverage and intensity. the potential exists for
somewhat heavier rainfall mainly along and south of us-24 this
evening into the overnight as the surface low making its way
across mo to arrives. that being said, models are varied on
both timing and northward extension of better qpf potential.
although higher pops may be needed, didn`t have enough
confidence to increase them at this time. if this does occur,
locations along and south of us-24 would have the best chance
for possible quarter to half inch of rainfall.

focus then shifts to the delayed arrival of summer, with a vengeance,
as upper level ridging builds north into next week. 850 mb temps of
+19 to +22 will yield afternoon highs at least into the lower 90s
starting in the west as early as monday and then everywhere tuesday
into at least friday. this combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s and little meaningful cooling at night will result in dangerous
conditions as heat indices climb into triple digits each afternoon.
excessive heat headlines will likely be needed for several days. the
heat and humidity will bring moderate to extreme instability across
the area, but 700 mb temps in the +11 to +13 range will create a
formidable cap through at least thursday before maybe some decrease
in mid level temps into the weekend. if a storm manages to develop
anywhere, copious amounts of rain would occur given pwats over 2"
and little overall steering flow.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 125 pm edt fri jun 26 2026

scattered light showers across the area this afternoon with a
west to east orientated warm frontal boundary currently located
just south of the cwa will continue to move northward tonight.
how far northward is still not certain but the boundary should
act as a better focus for showers and even a few embedded
thunderstorms to develop along. not much confidence in the
thunderstorm development so did opt to leave mention out of the
tafs at this time. but light to moderate showers especially for
kfwa seems likely. with the boundary hanging over the area mvfr
cigs/vsbys in mist/showers are also likely at times for both
sites but ifr cigs/vsbys in mist will be possible at times
mainly for kfwa saturday morning into the afternoon period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 261925
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
325 pm edt fri jun 26 2026

.key messages...

- low chance for a shower tonight south of detroit and ann arbor.

- temperatures return to near normal this weekend with dry weather.

- very hot and humid conditions are expected next week as heat
indices will exceed 100f, especially tues into the late week
period. potential exists for thunderstorms later in the week.

&&

.discussion...

lingering lower tropospheric troughing under weak forcing conditions
has resulted in persistent lower clouds across much of southeast
lower michigan this friday. temperature recovery has been lacking
- with 70f being a challenge for many locations.

while low clouds are thinning, they are being replaced by mid and
high level cloud cover from an area of disturbed weather over the
ohio and mid-mississippi valleys. meaningful shower coverage is
occurring across much of that region this afternoon - with an
extension northward toward southern lake michigan along an inverted
trough structure. this feature will roll east and have a minor
influence near the ohio border, where a few showers are possible
tonight. additionally, weak confluence under east/northeast flow
conditions within the broad trough looks to be sufficient to support
low cloud development over lake huron - inundating much of the thumb
region tonight - with a departure saturday morning as cloud edge
heating erodes the cloud field quickly.

an upper-level jet streak positioned over the great lakes today will
squeeze east of the region by late tonight into saturday. entrance
region dynamics associated with the jet will be adequate enough to
support additional lower-level height falls and favorable cyclonic
flow conditions across the ohio valley. a ribbon of low to mid-
level deformation forcing will accompany this system on saturday -
skirting just south of the region - but offering some cloud presence
from detroit and areas farther south. regardless, there will be
greater influence from the high late june sun to encourage warming
back to around 80f away from the big cool water.

a major flow regime transition remains on the docket for next week.
a significant longwave compression episode - starting with a
cyclonic wave break along the west coast on sunday - will induce
dramatic downstream ridge amplification over the eastern half of the
country. the shortening of the planetary-scale wavelength will boost
height amplification - cascading into a strong deep subsidence event
and establishment of a formidable heat dome. the entire global
ensemble suite is trending toward a slower evolution of the ridge
complex - thus suggesting a prolonging the heat effects through the
entire week.

upstream convective activity is anticipated sunday along the
northern periphery of the emerging heat dome. a few residual
showers may wander in from the northwest late sunday into early
monday - before mid-level stabilization via subsidence takes full
form. once it does, guidance projections of 700-mb temps >12c are
common late monday through thursday - with meager signs of loosening
grip until friday. highs will climb to near 90f on monday then into
the mid/upper 90s tuesday through friday. furthermore, dewpoints
will be around 70f, given the moisture availability via transport
and evapotranspiration. this will limit the capacity to cool
dramatically at night - with lows expected only to settle into the
low-mid 70s. net result will be daytime heat index values well over
100f for the balance of the week.

the trend is toward the geopotential ridge axis staying planted over
the upper great lakes through nearly the entire week - with only
showing signs of broad softening on friday - rather than migrating
east like earlier cycles depicted. this configuration limits
convective chances across the immediate region, and likely will
until the subsidence forcing begins to relent friday.

&&

.marine...

high pressure will hold over the region through the weekend
resulting in light winds and favorable marine conditions. a warm
front will lift north through the region on monday opening the door
for very warm air to move into the region for next week. there will
also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms for northern lake
huron monday as the front lifts north.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt fri jun 26 2026

aviation...

lake moisture plume is maintaining some degree of lower vfr clouds
and pockets of mvfr ceilings across southeast michigan under mid and
high clouds streaming overhead. a southeast wind near the southern
lakes should affect metro terminal wind direction this afternoon
while northern terminals hold out of e-ne. conditions are expected to
remain mostly vfr into tonight under a light e-ne wind. an ohio
valley system will send an overcast mid cloud with potential for
spotty light showers across later today into tonight. will keep
mention out of tafs given low expected coverage if any. if enough
clearing can occur tonight, some patchy radiation fog may develop.
confidence too low to mention in tafs at this time as best potential
for clearing would be east of the terminal corridor as a more
easterly direction sets up across the lakes.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast through saturday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mann
marine.......drk
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.