Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
741 am edt tue may 12 2026

.what has changed...
frost and freeze alerts remain in effect for all of northern oh
and nw pa until 8 am edt this morning. frost formation is still
expected inland from lake erie, especially around daybreak this
morning, as lows settle into the lower to mid 30`s in many
locations inland from the lake. the rest of the forecast is
essentially unchanged.

&&

.key messages...
1.) below-average temperatures, overall, are expected through
this thursday night. frost remains a concern this morning.

2.) unsettled weather, including periodic thunderstorms,
returns tuesday evening through thursday.

3) an overall warming trend is expected on friday through
tuesday, may 19th.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft crests e`ward
across our region today. dry weather is expected as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. net low-level waa develops
across northern oh and nw pa today as our region becomes
located along the western flank of the ridge. highs late this
afternoon are expected to reach the upper 50`s to near 70f as
cloud cover increases amidst moist isentropic ascent, ahead of a
trough axis aloft that will continue to approach from the
north-central united states and vicinity. the coolest highs are
expected over and within several miles of ~54f lake erie since
a favorable thermodynamic environment and weak synoptic mslp
gradient should promote lake breeze development late this
morning through early evening.

the ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward tonight through
wednesday night as the aforementioned trough aloft overspreads
our region and its axis moves from the upper midwest to near
lake ontario and the central appalachians. the attendant surface
low should wobble ese`ward from the northwestern great lakes to
northeastern ny, which should allow a surface warm front to
sweep ne`ward across our cwa tuesday night before a surface cold
front sweeps e`ward through our region between about daybreak
and early evening on wednesday. behind the cold front, a
surface ridge builds from the upper midwest through thursday
night, while the mid/upper-level portion of this ridge should
begin to build from the west by thursday night.

net low-level waa ahead of the warm front and within the warm
sector will contribute to overnight lows reaching the upper
40`s to mid 50`s tonight. abundant cloud cover associated with
the low pressure system and a faster cold front passage than
expected previously should limit daytime highs to the upper 50`s
to lower 60`s on wednesday, ahead of the cold front. net low-level
caa behind the cold front should contribute to lows reaching
the 40`s around daybreak thursday and friday, respectively,
although a few locations in interior ne oh may have lows reach
the upper 30`s around daybreak friday morning. daytime highs on
friday should reach only the upper 40`s to mid 50`s in nw pa
and the 50`s to mid 60`s in northern oh.

key message 2...
periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, are expected tonight
through wednesday due to the following: isentropic ascent along
the upper-reaches of the warm front tapping into abundant
moisture originating over the gulf and especially the southern
gulf stream; convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold front;
moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the cold front.
occasional thunderstorms are expected tuesday evening through early
wednesday evening as weak cape, including elevated cape, is released
by the aforementioned lifting mechanisms. spc has a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms capable of producing straight-line wind damage
that clips far-eastern portions of our cwa wednesday afternoon and
early evening. however, this risk appears to be very marginal given
the expectation that abundant cloud cover will limit diurnal
destabilization of the boundary layer, which in turn will limit the
magnitude of low-level lapse rates and dcape, respectively.

during wednesday night into early thursday, precip is expected
to transition to lake-enhanced/effect rain over and generally
southeast of lake erie, especially central and eastern portions
of the lake, as a primarily nw`erly mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air becomes established over/downwind of
the ~12c lake, at least weak lake-induced cape forms, and the
seeder-feeder process occurs at times amidst a sufficiently-
cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column and isentropic
ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes embedded in the
aforementioned trough aloft. between daybreak and nightfall on
thursday, lingering lake-effect rain showers should end from
west to east and give way to dry weather region-wide by thursday
night as lake-induced cape wanes via low-level dry air
advection and a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the
ridge that will build from the west.

key message 3...
an overall warming trend is expected this friday through
tuesday, may 19th as our region becomes located within a net
low-level waa regime along the western flank of the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft. moderating
temperatures should include daytime highs in the 60`s to lower
70`s on friday followed by daily highs mainly in the 80`s this
weekend through monday. tuesday, may 19th may be slightly cooler
with highs in the mid 70`s to lower 80`s as the next cold front
approaches from the northwest and results in increased potential
for showers and thunderstorms, and greater cloud cover as a
result. more specifically, periodic showers and thunderstorms
are possible friday night through tuesday the 19th, but
especially during the afternoon through early evening hours, as
a low-level return flow of moist air originating over the gulf
becomes established, the boundary layer destabilizes via daytime
heating each day, multiple shortwave troughs embedded in the
primarily sw`erly flow aloft and attendant surface trough axes
traverse our region, and the aforementioned cold front approaches
northern oh and nw pa, eventually.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will persist for at least the next 18 hours
before a low pressure system enters the region with widespread
rain and low ceilings. conditions for the next several hours
will be largely clear with light winds, starting east and
becoming southerly. mid-level clouds will enter from the west
during the afternoon and spread across the terminals by this
evening, as a warm front moves through the region. after 00z,
the terminals will solidly be in the warm sector with increasing
southerly flow and gusts of 20 to 30 kts. rain will soon follow
and spread across the terminals. rain intensity will be light
and flight conditions may actually stay vfr for much of the
rain. there is a non-zero thunderstorm chance, but confidence
remains too low to mention in a taf. behind the main batch of
rain overnight, non-vfr ceilings will start to fill into the
region but the bulk of the mvfr may not enter until after 12z
wednesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with lingering rain and low ceilings
through thursday. non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms late friday into saturday.

&&

.marine...
light easterly flow will be present on the lake today ahead of a
warm front. this front will lift over the lake this afternoon
and southwesterly flow will overtake the lake and increase.
offshore flow over the western basin will exceed 20 kts at times
and a small craft advisory has been issued. low pressure will
move southeast through the great lakes region on wednesday,
steering flow to the west, while maintaining elevated speeds.
this low will extend a cold front across the lake on wednesday
night, allowing for northwest flow to become favored. this
onshore flow will be in the 15 to 20 kt range and should allow
for waves to reach 4 ft for the central and eastern basins and
an expansion of the small craft advisory is likely. high
pressure will enter the region for thursday night into friday.
northerly flow will trend lighter for thursday night before
shifting to light southerly flow for friday. a warm front will
cross the lake on friday night into saturday, allowing for 10 to
15 kts of offshore flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for ohz003-006>013-
017>022-027>032-036>038-047-089.
freeze warning until 8 am edt this morning for ohz014-023-033.
pa...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for paz001.
freeze warning until 8 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt
wednesday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt
thursday for lez144-145.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
632 am edt tue may 12 2026

.key messages...

- warmer today and becoming breezy in the afternoon.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected by late
afternoon and especially by early this evening. widespread
severe weather is not expected but a few showers and storms
may produce wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph this evening.

- cooler and windy conditions for wednesday, but temperatures
moderate thursday into the weekend with high temperatures into
the lower 80s by saturday and sunday.

- additional shower and thunderstorm chances in store for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 335 am edt tue may 12 2026

chances of showers and a few gusty storms tonight along with
warmer/breezy conditions continue to be the main near term
forecast items to address.

the local area remains positioned in upper level inflection zone
this morning which is allowing for maintenance of low level
ridge axis across the area with a very dry airmass in place.
early morning water vapor imagery depicts the next short wave of
interest across north dakota which will spill down the upper
ridge into the great lakes region tonight. some amplification
of this upper trough is expected today as a strong upper jet
streak cuts through base of this trough. some weak deepening of
sfc reflection of this system is expected across the western
great lakes this evening, but stronger upper forcing and
vorticity advection accompanying the vort max really does not
look to affect local area until after 00z this evening. there
should be a strengthening zone of isentropic upglide well ahead
of sfc low/cold front this afternoon across the southern great
lakes, but an initial very dry subcloud layer will likely limit
sensible weather impacts for most of the afternoon with a
possibility of some initial virga. a strengthening of the low
level height gradient today (particularly nw in to sw lower mi)
should lead to breezy/windy conditions later today, but likely
delayed due to initial strong low level inversion and limited
mixing depths under influence of warm advection. strongest
afternoon gusts still appear to be displaced just west of the
local area into central/northern il, but strengthening sfc
pressure falls across michigan by mid-late afternoon and the
stronger gradient could allow for some south-southwest gusts to
30-35 mph across the far northwest. despite limited mixing
heights today, strength of warm advection will allow for high
temperatures closer to seasonable normals for mid may.p6sm

closer to 23z-00z, upper level forcing should increase from upstream
short wave along with some better pre-frontal moisture transport
building into far northern indiana and southern lower michigan from
northern illinois. despite this period of stronger low level
moisture transport, low level dew points will be less than ideal
to realize any instability of note, especially in light of
warmish mid level thermal profiles. strongly forced nature of
this system should allow for rain showers to expand in coverage
in pre-frontal forcing zone across northern in/southern lower
mi/far northwest ohio this evening with a few isolated storms
not out of the question. subcloud layer will likely be quite
dry into early evening, so rain shower activity could locally
enhance downdrafts for some isolated 40+ mph wind gusts not out
of the question. some additional development is possible along
actual sfc cold front mid-late evening across nw portions of the
area, which will likely be accompanied by very narrow zone of
some weak mlcapes on the order of 200-400 j/kg. this should also
be at the leading edge of some better mid level lapse rates due
to differential temp advection (cooling mid level profiles)
with the upper trough approach. a few cells along cold front
could produce some 40+ mph wind gusts and some small hail, but
potential of sfc based development looks quite limited. while
cannot completely rule out a rogue 60 mph gust, the potential of
severe continues to look quite marginal with this setup.

wednesday still looks to feature windy/cooler conditions as the
upper trough takes its time progressing across the great lakes
region as an additional upstream speed max digs through base of the
upper trough across northern portions of the ohio valley. given
cyclonic flow and some signs of some low level moisture wrapping
back cyclonically into far ne in/sc lower mi/far nw ohio, cannot
rule out a few residual light showers/sprinkles during the day
with some weak/shallow instability.

meridional flow in amplified flow pattern will keep dry air in place
across the region on thursday, with just limited warming of
temperatures. the next eastern pacific trough skirting across sw
canada will allow for some progression of this pattern and
return warm/moist advection by later thursday night into early
friday. some elevated moisture return could allow for showers or
perhaps isolated storms by friday, but potential of sfc based
convection may be confined to areas south/southwest of the local
area.

upper level flow pattern is expected to lose some amplitude by the
weekend with larger scale upper trough expected to overspread
western conus. predictability in the evolution of this additional
pacific energy is on the low side with a wide spread in
deterministic/ensemble solutions regarding progression of northern
stream short waves and extent of troughing lingering back
across the rockies/four corners. the overall pattern this
weekend into early next week does appear to be one with a
potential of better destabilization and periods of higher
shower/storm chances, but resolving these chances in 6-hour
periods remains difficult. of greater forecast confidence is the
trend to above normal temperatures at least through the weekend
with high temps in the low to mid 80s looking likely for
saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 630 am edt tue may 12 2026

a low level ridge axis will depart to the east this morning
allowing light southeasterly return flow to develop shortly
after 12z. a strong short wave trough across eastern
nd/northern mn will be the feature to monitor for northern in
weather heading into tonight. an upper jet streak digging
through the base of this trough this morning will allow for
amplification of this upper trough across the great lakes region
into this evening. isentropic upglide across the mid/upper ms
valley this morning will shift across the southern great lakes
this afternoon which could allow for some isolated-scattered
shower activity after 21z. however, an initially dry subcloud
layer could limit this potential until after 00z when mid/upper
level forcing begins to strengthen from the aforementioned
upstream trough. some increase in low level moisture
transport/increased southwesterly low level flow should allow
showers to become more widespread this evening given strongly
forced nature of this system. additional scattered showers are
expected to develop along the associated cold front,
particularly across ksbn vicinity later this evening where a
narrow weak instability axis should be maximized (~200-400 j/kg
mlcape). while an isolated thunderstorm is possible at both
terminals this evening/early overnight, will continue to omit
mention with the 12z tafs due to limited instability magnitudes
and low confidence. have also maintained primarily vfr
conditions, but brief mvfr conditions are possible tonight in
association with rain showers.

otherwise, evolution of departing ridge axis and some deepening
of upper ms valley sfc low should allow for strengthening
gradient today, although axis of stronger southwesterly flow
should reside across northern illinois during the afternoon.
will maintain strongest winds across ksbn vicinity with some
gusts to 25+ knots during the mid-late afternoon hours.

one other item that may need to be considered is inclusion of
llws conditions this evening. some decoupling combined with
axis of stronger low level flow shifting east could promote some
marginal llws conditions in the 00z-05z timeframe but
confidence in meeting criteria is low at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory until 8 am edt /7 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012-014-017-018-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016.
mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt
wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
452 am edt tue may 12 2026

.key messages...

- numerous to widespread showers with a rumble of thunder are on
schedule to move in this afternoon and continue through tonight. a
few of the strongest storms will be capable of 40 mph wind gusts and
small hail.

- below normal temperatures return for wednesday with scattered
showers.

- a warming trend is then on schedule to carry temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a clear start (outside of high clouds) to the day before mid level
moisture ramps up and mid clouds (6-10 kft) increase during the day.
low probability for light shower production with this moistening
process, particularly from ptk northward. greater coverage of showers
will develop late in the day into the evening hours as a low
pressure system tracks through the great lakes region. enough
instability may exist to afford isolated thunderstorms this evening
and tonight, but confidence in occurrence remains too low to include.
showers moistening the low levels and the low level convergence with
the arrival of a cold front late tonight/early wednesday should
result in mvfr cigs.

d21/dtw convection...very low probability exists for an isolated
thunderstorm this evening into tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for thunderstorms this evening into tonight.
* high for cigs aob 5000 feet tonight into wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 am edt tue may 12 2026

discussion...

temperatures are settling into frosty lower to mid 30s across se mi,
except for the immediate detroit area. legit freezing conditions are
also noted toward the interior thumb leading up to sunrise. from
here, readings climb steadily through the 40s during the morning as
the cold high pressure air mass is displaced eastward by the next
low pressure system moving into the upper midwest. this system is on
schedule to bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight.

upstream observational data and model analysis fields indicate
elevated activation of the warm front over the upper midwest as
moisture transport accelerates into the system. it has a hybrid
pacific/gulf moisture axis maturing in the 850-700 mb layer judging
by model theta-e fields, more than adequate for elevated convection
when driven by a 50 kt low level jet. what has developed in model
solutions over the last few runs is a more pronounced effect of dry
air in the low levels across se mi this afternoon. this results in a
pop/qpf gradient from just a low chance near the ohio border up to
near categorical toward the tri cities. it shows up in the regional
deterministic solutions as well as the href and refs mean qpf as the
models hone in on the moisture transport maximum into the northern
great lakes.

thunderstorm potential transitions from elevated this afternoon to
surface based this evening. there is good model agreement in
placement of the surface low near the straits by midnight which
pulls the warm front into central lake huron and draws the warm
sector across southern lower mi. storms are expected to be ongoing
along the trailing cold front crossing lake mi around 00z with the
forecast focus being on coverage and intensity as storms reach se mi
toward midnight. the storm environment offers a strong wind profile
that ranges from 50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear at 03z this evening
down to a still respectable 35 knots by 09z. the limiting factor is
instability that fails to hold up as href mean mucape struggles to
hold 500 j/kg as activity moves through se mi. a few stronger storms
are in play as the pattern reaches the i-75 corridor, however a
weakening or disorganizing trend is likely as weakening updrafts
struggle to hold up against the strong wind field. this body of
evidence supports the general thunder spc outlook until the cold
front sweeps eastward by 12z wednesday.

this low pressure system continues moving slowly eastward during
wednesday despite a respectable occlusion still showing up in model
projections. the occlusion maintains a mid level moisture axis and
500 mb cold pool capable of supporting scattered afternoon
instability showers across se mi. afternoon max temperatures also
drop back below normal, into the 50s most areas, especially if rain
is a factor against the diurnal trend. at least lingering clouds
strongly limit frost potential wednesday night.

the transition toward a more zonal large scale mid/upper air
configuration is on schedule for the late week period. it is
preceded by a sharp mid level ridge and broad surface high pressure
to ensure dry weather thursday. low pressure well north in central
canada then gets the warming trend underway with a pattern of
showers in the great lakes by friday. temperature guidance has
trended significantly warmer for saturday and sunday with upper 70s
and lower 80s being offered each day. zonal large scale flow is not
a stable/long lasting configuration which is shown in extended range
guidance solutions that reamplify the pattern early next week,
except this time with the trough farther west and warmer for the
great lakes compared to recent days.

marine...

high pressure departs and washes out across new england this morning
which will support southeast flow through the day. a low pressure
clipper system will then progress from the northern plains into
lower michigan late tonight into wednesday. the pressure gradient
will strengthen as a result and will increase the magnitude of
southeast flow, producing gusts ranging 20 to 25 knots. this will
quickly elevated wave heights aoa 4ft across the lake huron
shoreline and through the saginaw bay, where small craft advisories
remain in place. advisories have also been expanded to lake st clair
and lake erie for tonight and wednesday.

passage of the low will veer wind direction from southeast to
northwest by wednesday afternoon. a lull in wind speeds and wave
heights will be likely as the low progresses directly over the
state. however, the northwest flow will accelerate cold air
advection, improving mixing depths which brings renewed gust
potential towards 25 knots leading into thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning until 8 am edt this morning for miz047>049-054-055-
062-063-070.

frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz053-060-061-068-
069-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt
wednesday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...bt
marine.......am/bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.