Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
680
fxus61 kcle 111133
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
633 am est thu dec 11 2025

.synopsis...
a surface trough lingers across lake erie through tonight as a
clipper system moves into the ohio valley region tonight into
friday. another clipper system will move east across the great lakes
region while dragging an arctic cold front on saturday. a trough
remains over the region on sunday before high pressure builds
overhead on monday.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
mid to upper level trough will move through the great lakes region
today which will allow for continued lake effect snow showers
downwind of lake erie. northwest flow early this morning has brought
a lake huron connection into northwest pennsylvania. highest
snowfall amounts and rates from this band will remain over erie
county pa where 2-3" of snow is possible through daybreak this
morning. mean-layer flow will gradually shift and become west-
northwesterly through this afternoon allowing for lake effect snow
showers across the traditional snowbelt of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. overall additional snowfall amounts now
through friday afternoon will range between 1-3" across northeast
ohio and 3-5" across northwest pennsylvania. locally higher amounts
of 5-7" are possible in erie county pa where bands persist. lake
effect bands will gradually lift into western new york thursday
night as mean layer flow turns southwesterly ahead of an approaching
clipper system. this clipper will dive southwest of the local area
thursday night into friday. the bulk of the snow with this clipper
system will stay south of the forecast area, but can`t rule out a
quick 0.5" of snowfall across southern zones of the forecast area.

high temperatures today and friday will rise into the upper 20s to
lower 30s with overnight lows tonight in the upper teens.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
lake effect snow will return friday night ahead of a stronger
clipper system that will move east across the southern great lakes
on saturday. this clipper will drag a strong arctic cold front east
across the local area and usher in a much cooler airmass. lake
effect snow will resume saturday into sunday as the upper trough
deepens over the region.

warmest period of the short term will be friday night and saturday
ahead of the frontal passage where overnight lows friday night
settle in the teens and highs on saturday rise to the 20s. much
cooler behind the front with lows saturday and sunday night in the
single digits to low 10s. remaining cool on sunday with highs in the
upper teens. wind chill values will fall below zero areawide
saturday night with some zones in the southwestern portions of the
forecast area dropping as low as -10f.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
any remaining lake effect snow showers will diminish through the day
on monday as high pressure slowly builds east from the midwest to
begin next week. mainly dry conditions are expected through tuesday
before the next low arrives wednesday. temperatures will trend
warmer through the long term with the mid-week system bringing rain
to the region. highs in the 20s on monday will rise into the low 40s
by wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
overcast skies are observed areawide with ceilings in the
2,000-4,000 ft range. ceilings will continue to be variable,
though will tend to be mostly mvfr this afternoon/evening and
mostly vfr tonight.

lake effect snow showers continue across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania, although a few snow showers may be seen
during the afternoon elsewhere. better organized snow bands are
likely to produce visibilities down into the 1-2 sm range in
ohio, and down to 1/2 sm in northwest pennsylvania. tafs
primarily contain mvfr visibilities, which is due to the large
uncertainty in timing and location of ifr-producing snowbands.

west winds around 10-15 knots will produce gusts up to 20-25
knots this afternoon before diminishing to 5 knots or less
tonight.

outlook...non-vfr is likely in periods of snow as a series of
systems cross the area through the weekend with the best chance
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories continue near and east of the
islands, though conditions on lake erie are expected to gradually
improve through tonight as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds
in.

southwest winds develop friday night, with peak wind speeds of
around 25-30 knots expected saturday morning with and immediately
following the passage of a cold front. waves of 5-9 feet are likely
east of the islands through the day saturday. winds of 15 to 25
knots generally becomes northwest by saturday evening and continue
through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for ohz013-
014.
pa...winter storm warning until 4 am est friday for paz002.
winter weather advisory until 4 am est friday for paz003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez143.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez144-
145.
small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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339
fxus63 kiwx 111122
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
622 am est thu dec 11 2025

.key messages...

- 1-2" of snow is likely south of us-30 tonight with lows around
20 and light winds.

- very cold air is expected this weekend with lows near zero and
wind chill values below -10, particularly sunday morning.

- periods of light system snow and lake effect snow are also
expected friday night through sunday night.

- warmer weather returns next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 312 am est thu dec 11 2025

residual lake effect flurries slowly winding down this morning as
winds continue to back, dry air entrainment increases, and
subsidence inversion lowers. no additional accumulation is
anticipated though scattered flurries may continue through the
morning hours. today will be a relatively quiet weather day as we
are in between clipper systems. current temps holding in the
mid/upper 20s under thick stratus blanket that will likely persist
through the day (though wouldn`t be surprised if there were a few
breaks). this will keep highs similar to present values of upper
20s/around 30f.

classic clipper system then slated to zip through the region tonight
in very fast northwest flow. midlevel shortwave is much more subdued
than the last event with precip driven by a brief period of moderate
285-295k system-relative isentropic ascent and associated tightening
thermal gradient/fgen. the problem is that this forcing is focused
well s/sw of our area with only our sw half even getting clipped by
highly elevated portions of this forcing. narrow window of ascent (8
hours at best) and overall very stable profiles further limit
snowfall amounts in our area. still thinking a quick 1-2" possible
south of us-30 but tightened the gradient even further with
little/no accumulation (or even pop`s) north of there. an even
further southward shift is also possible, as suggested by some of
the latest hi-res guidance (including the 06z hrrr), and have
lowered pop`s even in our far southern counties. lows tonight drop
to around 20f with light winds expected.

after another relatively quiet day on friday, an active weekend is
expected. arctic upper low settles into the northern great lakes
this weekend, bringing cold temps, gusty winds, and several chances
for snow. the initial shortwave crosses fri night and will support
some lake-enhanced snow showers in westerly flow. best chances for
accumulating snow will be in mi where 1-3" is possible but some very
light snow showers could clip as far south as the us-6 corridor in
indiana. another shortwave then arrives late sat with another inch
or two mainly south of us-30 (though there is still lower confidence
on the exact track of this feature). this wave will mark the arrival
of truly cold air (850mb temps below -20c). temps near zero expected
sat night and sun night with wind chill values -10 to -20f (coldest
sun am with wind gusts around 20 mph). cold weather advisories may
be necessary. a decent lake response is also possible sat night into
sun given nnw flow and very high 850mb thermal differentials.
however, early indications suggest relatively low inversion heights
and a dgz largely below the cloud-bearing layer. much will depend on
exact flow trajectories and potential for more northerly fetch
favoring more organized, dominant band, which is difficult to
predict this far out. as of now, appears to be more of an advisory-
level lake effect snow event but this will be monitored closely in
the coming days.

we finally see a pattern shift next week with highs climbing above
freezing and rain expected in the wed-thu period. cold air and snow
may still threaten the area at times but overall much more typical
dec weather appears likely heading toward christmas.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 622 am est thu dec 11 2025

moisture-laden inversion will maintain stratus deck with
ceilings hovering around 3 kft through the early afternoon. some
improvement expected during the evening as low level flow
becomes more southwesterly. light snow will then spread across
the area late tonight associated with a weak clipper system.
maintained prob30 at ksbn but snow could remain just south of
the terminal. much better chances for light snow/low mvfr
ceilings at kfwa but improvement anticipated by 12z friday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
060
fxus63 kdtx 111327
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
827 am est thu dec 11 2025

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures resume today and continue friday.

- arctic air is further reinforced this weekend resulting in single
digit wind chill saturday and below zero saturday night into sunday
morning.

- a gradual warming trend is projected during the middle of next
week, however it will take until wednesday for above freezing
daytime temperatures.

&&

.update...

the 12z dtx sounding had an inversion height up to 5k feet with a
temp around -18c. the heat flux off the lakes has boosted inversions
a little more than previous model solutions suggested. this has
warranting an update to include scattered showers/flurries in the
morning/early afternoon forecast. the low level flow will back more
westerly this afternoon. losing the lake superior connection and
broad large scale subsidence will lower inversion heights, limiting
the coverage of snow showers/flurries later today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 655 am est thu dec 11 2025

aviation...

chilly westerly flow is passing over lake michigan this morning,
drawing lake effect cloud into the airspace, with pockets of light
flurries (vfr). ceilings have generally maintained vfr bases, but
some terminals could experience brief lowering to mvfr later this
morning (addressed via tempo). gusts peak in the 20-25 knot range
late morning, followed by slightly higher confidence in low vfr by
this afternoon after low-level wind adjustments. ceilings scatter
out this evening, ending any lingering flurries. mid and high clouds
fill in early tonight, and a weak model signal exists for another
potential round of mvfr ceilings overnight. winds turn nearly calm
and variable late tonight into friday morning.

for dtw...mainly vfr ceilings with some flurries. brief mvfr drops
possible. max westerly gusts to 25 knots.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium to high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through this
afternoon and tonight.

prev discussion...
issued at 352 am est thu dec 11 2025

discussion...

the surge of cold air behind yesterday`s low pressure system has
pushed temperatures down into the lower 20s, and into the teens
under pockets of clear sky, across se mi this morning as the next
round of colder than normal air builds into the region. the cold air
is reinforced by w-nw flow that continues across the great lakes in
the gradient between plains high pressure and new england low
pressure today and tonight. there is also a weak lake aggregate
trough embedded in this larger scale pressure pattern that serves as
the focus for lake effect snow showers as it wavers from upper mi
into northern lower mi. the resulting lake superior to lake michigan
connection is making the most out of an otherwise marginally
supportive larger scale moisture environment. clusters of snow
showers off the fringes of dominant bands are able to make it down
into the saginaw valley and northern thumb as long as activity
maintains similar strength on radar. farther south, mid level
subsidence and dry air reduce central and southern lake michigan
influence to just clouds and flurries until a narrow ridge of
surface high pressure builds overhead late tonight into friday
morning.

the new run of 11/00z hi-res and regional/global models are in good
agreement on maintenance of a northern plains to ohio valley low
pressure track through friday. models are unanimous in keeping the
northern fringe of snow over northern in/oh as the lead wave is very
low amplitude. this is followed quickly by a mid level low closing
off from central canada into the northern great lakes friday night.
it is capable of producing light snow across lower mi as it siphons
some higher theta-e air from the central plains frontal zone into a
weak warm advection pattern ahead of the surface system. model qpf
averages less than 0.1 inch as 850-700 mb specific humidity
struggles to hold 1-2 g/kg along and ahead of the cold front. this
sets up a higher pop/low accumulation scenario of less than 1 inch
across se mi by saturday morning, subject to some minor upward
adjustment as a potential lake michigan lake effect boost comes into
focus.

more important is the surge of arctic air ushered in by the saturday
morning cold front that entrenches a frigid air mass through the
weekend into early next week. temperature projections hold readings
in the teens with single digit wind chill saturday which leads into
single digit low temperatures and sub zero wind chill saturday
night. a near repeat performance sunday modifies just a few degrees
warmer by monday. temperatures then trend back toward mid december
normals as the 500 mb long wave and upper jet pattern become more
progressive. a building mid level ridge promotes the warming trend,
however daytime guidance temperatures take until wednesday to
increase above freezing.

marine...

high pressure continues building into the region today from the west
while a dome of cold air lingers over the region in the wake of
wednesday`s low pressure system and cold front. so while the
gradient generally weakens, the cold air aloft will try to get
stronger winds going, but below gale force. small craft advisories
are now in effect for outer saginaw bay and the nearshore waters of
lake huron to account for continued elevated wave heights as a
result of the continued northwesterly flow. surface ridge slides
over the great lakes today and tonight allowing winds to decrease
further while backing to the west. winds will remain lower into
friday before the next clipper tracks through ontario friday night
into saturday, pulling an arctic front through the region friday
night. this cold airmass will again bring increased winds with
sporadic gusts to gales possible over lake huron during the weekend
as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 c, supporting snow squalls and
freezing spray as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-442.

small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lhz441.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....kgk
discussion...bt
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.