Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
220 am edt sat sep 26 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes needed to the prior forecast or
messaging.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly dry weather and fall temperatures are expected
through tuesday with scattered rain chances returning by the
middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
fall weather with dry conditions is expected through tuesday
evening as high pressure affects the region. the exception may
be sunday evening when a few light rain showers may briefly
drift in from the east across northwest pennsylvania. temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal over the next several
days with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s each day. by late wednesday, weak low
pressure will move into the midwest and great lakes region.
forecast has trended drier on wednesday with only isolated rain
showers, increasing a bit in coverage on thursday and friday. no
thunderstorms are forecast.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr will prevail through the taf cycle as high pressure remains
nearly stationary over the great lakes. scattered to broken
cirrus around 25,000 feet this morning across ne ohio and nw pa
will exit by afternoon, allowing for clear skies everywhere.

light ne winds this morning will increase to 5-10 knots this
afternoon, becoming light again by tonight.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of overnight patchy fog are possible.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds to 10 to 15 knots with periods of winds close
to 20 knots are expected through monday morning with light and
variable flow monday afternoon through tuesday evening. waves in
the central and western basins will generally be between 1 and
3 ft through early monday morning, though the forecast has
trended a bit higher for sunday afternoon into sunday night when
the likelihood for 20 knots winds and some 4 ft waves could be
possible.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 260527
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
127 am edt sat sep 26 2026

.key messages...

- this weekend, cool, crisp mornings give way to afternoon
temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s. temperatures trend warmer
into the early work week.

- dry conditions persist until early wednesday morning.

- rain chances take over from the mid work week potentially
continuing into the weekend. uncertainty still remains with
heavy rain/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 am edt sat sep 26 2026

a relatively vigorous shortwave continues to sink southward through
the day today doing nothing more than providing a few clouds to the
area. the column is rather dry as surface high pressure noses in
from the north. still the area looks entrenched on the western side
of a rex block as a strong upper low deepens along the east coast
and a high pressure system sits in southeastern canada. this block
helps to dampen a wave as it approaches from the west sunday
night/monday and this allows dry weather to continue as another
surface high approaches from the west later monday into monday
night. finally, a pacific wave approaches the northern plains and
western great lakes between monday and tuesday helping to kick the
stalled strong area of low pressure along the east coast out to sea.

this opens to the door to increased moisture as a mid level wave
with its strongest support in the upper jet more in canada and a
shearing area of vorticity to its south that tries to edge into the
area into tuesday night. the best columnar moisture swings through
northern and western areas late tuesday night into early wednesday
morning. models currently only have mid 50s to low 60s dew points
moving in during that time, but 850 mb dew points do surpass 10c.
the ecmwf has minimal mucape to work with. this all seems to
indicate issues with moisture working into the region overall and
potentially some issues with dry air choking moisture transport up
and to the surface even with a moisture connection to the gulf.

after the prior wave moves through into at least the first part of
wednesday, it appears there`s a bit of a break in rain until the
washed out front from wednesday moves back northward as a warm front
for thursday. this front stalls out across the area and serves as a
focus for showers from thursday into the weekend. storm potential
will be dependent on the eventual location of the front, as
better instability could stay south of the area. surface dew
points reach 65f thursday and friday the ecmwf has good large
scale ascent across the area thursday am as well as parts of
friday and saturday. there is still plenty of disagreement
between when a cutoff low in the southwest makes it up here, but
sometime between friday and saturday looks likely. if there was
one day that looks like there could be some stronger
thunderstorms, it`s saturday, but we have a long time to get
there yet.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 124 am edt sat sep 26 2026

despite a shortwave sliding southward across the east coast of lk
mi, plenty of dry air stays entrenched overhead and helps the area
retain vfr conditions. winds stay out of the northeast and will be
light, staying less than 10 kts sustained.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 260256
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1056 pm edt fri sep 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weekend.

- next rain opportunity midweek.

&&

.aviation...

axis of midlevel moisture tracking into the area from the northwest
will cutoff over southeast michigan tonight as it becomes influenced
by the strong nor`easter off the atlantic coast. vfr midlevel
altostratus-altocumulus ceilings are expected to hold on longer into
the overnight. calm winds brings the potential for fog late tonight
as longer nighttime period yields a stronger near surface inversion.
mos guidance is not nearly as bullish and low confidence exists
particularly within the urban heat island of the detroit terminals.
daytime mixing with a very dry air mass below 6.0 kft agl is
expected to bring vfr conditions with low sky fraction saturday
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 pm edt fri sep 25 2026

discussion...

an extremely dry airmass is in place over southeast michigan today,
as the 12z dtx sounding indicated a dew pt depression of 49 c at 850
mb, 47 c at 700 mb, and a pw value of 0.21 inches. the pw value
appears to set a new daily record low based on the spc climatology
page. with this dry air and an upper level ridge expected to hold
over the northern great lakes this weekend, it comes as no surprise
that dry weather remains in store. expect mild days and cool nights
this weekend into early next week. shallow ground fog is not out of
the question with the longer nights, but uncertain if the
surface/near surface moisture is sufficient. nam surface
condensation pressure deficits stay mainly above 5 mb.

a slow evolving upper level pattern will feature deep, stacked lows
near the mid-atlantic coastline into early week. so although heights
lower modestly monday/tuesday over the central great lakes, the
ridge axis remains mostly entrenched.

the next chance of rain arrives on wednesday as a shortwave trough
tracks through. medium range models then significantly diverge, as
the strength and interaction between the upper level low/trough over
central canada and the closed low coming out of the four corners
region needs to be sorted out.

marine...

the expansion of a strong canadian high pressure system from quebec
and ontario into the great lakes will provide an extended period of
light winds and dry weather through early next week. some periodic
wind gust potential around 20 knots will be possible across southern
lake huron this weekend, but otherwise, wind gust potential at or
below 15 knots is expected. wind direction will mainly hold from the
north to northeast as high pressure fills in across michigan.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.