Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
784
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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
232 am edt wed apr 15 2026

.what has changed...
the previous forecast largely remains on track with multiple
rounds of thunderstorms (some severe) and heavy rain expected
through thursday and again on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of severe weather are possible through thursday
with another round of convection possible saturday as the active
pattern continues. all severe weather hazards are possible.

2) repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain are likely through
early thursday. a flood watch remains in effect for northwest ohio,
where confidence in flooding is highest.

3) above normal temperatures will continue through saturday before
cooler temperatures return sunday into early next week.
frost/freeze headlines may be needed for ohio counties sunday
night and monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
multiple rounds of convection are expected through wednesday as
a frontal boundary wavers to the north of the local area.
additional storms are likely as an upper trough axis moves
across the area late thursday with another round of storms
likely as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on
saturday. strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with each
round of convection. see the following breakdown below for more
details:

today: the first round of convection is currently moving into
the local area. the warm, moist flow and llj could support
convective maintenance on the southern flank of the line for at
least the next few hours, although the shear environment is less
optimal across the local area. all convective hazards will be
on the table but damaging wind gusts will definitely be the
primary concern with a few tornadic spin-ups possible on the
leading edge of the line. cams suggest that storms will weaken
as they move across the area, which would likely result in
boundaries left behind that will serve as a focus for convective
initiation/enhancement later today. similar to tuesday,
multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are possible
throughout the day today with stronger convection possible later
this afternoon into this evening. the deep, moist flow will
allow for efficient destabilization this afternoon with mlcape
values of 1500-2500 j/kg and deep shear values of 40+ knots
anticipated. this would support organized convection and
potential for another round of strong to severe storms with all
hazards (especially damaging winds) possible. that said, given
the reliance on mesoscale features for forcing, confidence in
the exact timing and placement of storms is medium at best.
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across
the entire area today.

thursday: upper level support will be a bit better on thursday the
frontal boundary finally pushes southeast as a weak cold front.
scattered showers/storms remain possible in the warm air advection
regime thursday morning into thursday afternoon with more organized
convection likely with the front later thursday afternoon into
thursday evening. damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but
hail and a few tornadoes can`t be ruled out considering the wind
field. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across the entire
local area.

saturday: a brief respite in showers and thunderstorm chances is
anticipated on friday, however yet another round of storms (possibly
strong to severe) will return as the next cold front, which will be
stronger than thursday`s, approaches. given moist return flow ahead
of the front, all severe hazards are possible.

key message 2...
regardless of the severity of storms, very heavy
rainfall with rates of at least 1-2 inches is likely with any
thunderstorms given pwat values of 1.25-2 inches in place across
the area. there`s some potential for training with the line of
stronger storms moving into the area this morning and localized
flooding will be possible for the first several hours of the
forecast period. at the very least, this early morning
convection will serve as yet another primer for additional heavy
rainfall in thunderstorms later today into tonight. there are
still concerns for backbuilding and/or training late today as
storm motion becomes more parallel to the frontal boundary to
the north. widespread rainfall totals between this morning and
thursday will be between 1-2 inches (generally along and north
of us route 30), although locally higher amounts of at least 2-4
inches are possible, especially across northwest ohio where the
flood watch is in effect. flooding concerns are highest for the
more responsive/flashy waterways and typical poor
drainage/urban areas. outside of northwest ohio, the location of
the highest qpf values and the resulting highest flooding risk
remain uncertain given relatively low confidence in the exact
placement of thunderstorms.

key message 3...
persistent warm air advection will result in well above normal
temperatures through saturday. instead of normal lower 60s for
highs, highs will be in the 70s with lower 80s possible in
areas that experience any clearing today. cooler temperatures
will likely materialize in the event of persistent cloud cover
and precipitation. it will also be quite muggy thanks to dew
points in the lower 60s. temperatures will temporarily moderate
to below normal values in the 50s sunday and monday, but
guidance favors a warming trend by the middle of next week.

the growing season has officially started for ohio counties and
frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed as temperatures
tank into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s on sunday night.
additional headlines may be needed across northeast ohio on
monday night.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
a line of thunderstorms extends across southeast michigan
towards southern lake michigan at 0530z and is moving generally
east southeast. thunderstorms are expected to be in the vicinity
of toledo and could produce strong to severe thunderstorm winds
of 40-50 knots at the terminal with a wind shift to the
northwest. we tried to time thunderstorms eastward across the
area with the highest confidence in thunderstorms reaching the
northern terminals and expecting the line to generally stall out
before reaching cak. conditions are vfr ahead of the
thunderstorms with mvfr or brief ifr visibilities expected in
thunderstorms. if training of thunderstorms occurs, the lower
conditions could linger for an hour or two.

mvfr ceilings are possible for a few hours wednesday morning
as the rain tends to dissipate through 14z. several hours of
heating on wednesday will allow for thunderstorms to re-develop
along the stalled out boundary. expecting to see good coverage
of thunderstorms on wednesday afternoon between roughly 18z in
nw ohio and 23z in ne ohio.

southwest winds will remain breezy for much of the period. wind
gusts have dropped off at a few locations and have included a
brief window of low level wind sheer in the terminals with
speeds of 45 knots at 2k feet. thunderstorms will cause a wind
shift to the northwest for several hours late tonight with
southwest winds resuming on wednesday morning.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected in
showers and thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
a broken line of thunderstorms will cross lake erie early this
morning and could be strong to severe. thunderstorms will act
to disrupt winds which could shift around to the northwest for a
period of time. winds will switch back around to the southwest
on wednesday at 10-20 knots with additional strong thunderstorms
possible. low pressure will track east across the central great
lakes on thursday, with southwest winds veering to the northwest
behind a cold front thursday night.

southwest winds develop out of the southeast on saturday and
veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots. winds will be elevated at
20-25 knots behind the cold front saturday night and a small
craft advisory will likely be needed heading into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch through thursday morning for ohz003-006>009-018-
019.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1257 am edt wed apr 15 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through today, though the potential for severe weather remains
uncertain with intensity dependent on how previous activity
evolves.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms exist
thursday through saturday, with potential for severe weather
dependent on the previous thunderstorm activity.

- a flood watch remains in effect through this evening as swaths
of locally heavy rain is expected on already saturated grounds
and high river and lake levels.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1257 am edt wed apr 15 2026

while a primary trough will lift out of the rockies into the
central plains over the coming 12-18 hours, multiple embedded
waves ahead of this trough through the active flow aloft will
continue to produce periods of shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region today. forecast soundings depict fairly
saturated atmospheric profiles with precipitable water values
exceeding 1.2-1.4 inches, which will aid in producing heavy
rainfall rates with any thunderstorm that develops. a flood
watch remains in effect through this evening for the northern
half of the forecast area given the potential for heavy rain,
though a flooding threat cannot be ruled out further south.

the severe thunderstorm threat remains complicated today with
instability looking more difficult to come by as early morning
convective debris and intermittent shower activity will limit
cape values. that said, strong mid- level flow with 40-50 knots
of 0-6km shear will be more than sufficient for organized
convection if adequate surface heating and subsequent
destabilization occurs. for now the severe threat today looks
conditional but worth watching.

a sharper trough moves through the area on thursday bringing
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. strong shear
and adequate instability should bring another day of at least a
marginal severe threat. attention will then turn to the likely
arrival of a much deeper trough by this weekend, which has
triggered an early highlight by spc for severe weather potential
on saturday. a sharp cool-down and gusty winds behind the
associated cold front is likely on sunday, with a moderation in
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1257 am edt wed apr 15 2026

a line of strong shra/tsra with wind gusts 40-50 kts/cigs 015-025k
ft agl/vsby 1-3sm extending from srn lake michigan across srn mi
early this morning will drift south into nrn in through 15/12z
impacting, the terminals at ksbn (between 15/04-07z) and kfwa
(between 15/06-09z). although there will be a lull in thunderstorms
impacting northern in between 15/12-16z, mvfr conditions will return
with another round of shra/tsra expanding in coverage and intensity
across the area from west-to-east wednesday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through wednesday evening for inz005>009-012-014-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch through wednesday evening for ohz001-002-004-005.
mi...flood watch through wednesday evening for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...edwards
aviation...rasmussen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 150559
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
159 am edt wed apr 15 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- potential exists for thunderstorms to develop tonight, mainly
between 8 pm and 3 am. storms may become severe, capable of
producing wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

- there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms wednesday and
still another round of storms possible thursday.

- each episode of storms brings the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall. a flood watch is in effect for all areas tonight through
thursday night.

&&

.aviation...

strongest line of convection has passed through ptk southward and
will impact the detroit taf sites for the first hour or two of the
forecast. tsra may continue a bit after that within the trailing
stratiform before showers taper off around 10-12z. warm front
remains draped across the area with potential showers and
thunderstorms today and into tonight. tried to time out some higher
confident windows of time based on hires models, but those times may
shift. outside of variable winds during convection, they should
largely be southwesterly around 10 knots.

dtw/d21 convection... a line of thunderstorms will move across dtw
between now and 09z. showers will continue with some embedded
thunder possible through the early morning. after a potential brief
lull, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will exist
through the day.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight. medium wednesday morning.

* medium to high for thunderstorms tonight between 04z and 09z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 312 pm edt tue apr 14 2026

discussion...

evening/early tonight severe storm potential- enhanced risk south of
i-69, slight risk north of i-69:

remnant mcv over northern indiana that generated a few light showers
near the state border is pushing east of the region this afternoon
and most importantly, its associated cloud shield is likewise
peeling away. increasing insolation supports destabilization through
the late afternoon-early evening period with cams advertising a
southwesterly gradient from grand rapids to detroit where 1000-2000
j/kg of sbcape to develops along/south. additionally stalled frontal
boundary is lingering near the northern portions of the saginaw
valley this evening. these two features are the first to watch
before the arrival of then ongoing upstream convection from wi/ia
late evening. for the southern cape gradient, the fairly weak cap
looks to effectively erode between 00-02z supporting isolated to
perhaps scattered convective initiation over areas south of m-59.
for the stalled tri-cities frontal boundary, its associated
initiation depends on enough instability lifting that north which
favors a window more 01-03z. discrete storms that do manage to fire
in either region occur early enough to be fully surface based and be
working with at least 1000 j/kg of sbcape (likely more for the
southern storms) and very steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5-
8c/km. additionally wind profiles/hodographs show healthy curvature
in the lowest 1-2kft leading to between 100-200 m2/s2 of srh and 0-
1km bulk shear values nearing 25kts. all together, near-sunset
environment is favorable for surface-based storms with all hazards
in play, though exactly how much initiation actually occurs is
unclear. while the above is (potentially) occuring, upstream
convection undergoes upscale growth while crossing from wi into west
mi feed by a 45-55kt southwesterly llj congealing into a line of
storms (wind feed isn`t particularly strong true mcs development).
line motion is favored to trend southerly given the cape gradient
and southwesterly inflow. worth noting there is a subset of cams
like the 06z hrdps and 12z arw that favor more robust development
along the southerly flank resulting in the main line push dropping
southeast over northern il/in instead of se mi. that said, current
forecast remains with the main line dropping nw-se across the local
area late evening-early tonight, 03-07z. overnight arrival lends
concern for the ability for the line to maintain itself both in
strength and a surface layer root due to decreasing available
nocturnal instability and only modest inflow winds. should anything
maintain a surface connection, damaging wind gusts and an isolated
qlcs tornado would be the main hazards as low level winds maintain
favorable curvature in advance of the line.

wednesday- marginal risk of severe:

exactly how wednesday morning plays out depends on the behavior of
this evening`s convection and where the line eventually peters out-
either over far southern se mi or over oh. the line pushing fully
into oh keeps the first half of the morning drier. regardless, the
local area remains entrenched in this mild/moist airmass with
continuing deep layer southwesterly flow. no strong forcing
mechanism to speak of wednesday with embedded pv anomalies instead
lifting into the state and spurring clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. airmass is conducive for instability to rebound back
near 1000 j/kg by afternoon with bulk shear remaining near 30-40kts
offering a shot an isolated storm borderline severe storm. damaging
wind gusts are main hazard, hail threat is hampered by anemic mid-
level lapse rates near or below 6c/km.

thursday- marginal risk south of m-59:

central plains mid-level trough eventually lifts into the central
great lakes providing stronger synoptic support for increasing
shower coverage late wednesday night-thursday morning. wave provides
stronger wind profiles pushing shear values towards 40-45kts.
inhibiting factor for storms is overnight arrival of the wave with
showers ongoing through the day reducing diurnal destabilization
potential. peak cape generally favored to hold in the 500-1000 j/kg
range and focused towards the state border where `best` chances for
an isolated strong storm will reside. shortwave eventually kicks
east thursday night tapering off lingering showers.

flooding concerns- flood watch for all se mi till thursday night:

spring thus far has already been quite wet for much of the area with
all 3 climate sites sitting above normal since march 1st: saginaw
+4.30", flint +3.78", detroit +0.88". in the past 10 days, all but
the southern portions of lenawee/monroe have seen between 1.5-4.5",
highest values north of m-59 where areal/river flooding occurred
last week. humid airmass maintains pwat values around 1.3" tonight
through the day wednesday before nudging higher towards 1.5-1.6"
wednesday night-thursday. with multiple additional rounds of showers
and storms this evening through thursday evening, qpf forecasts
within that timeframe are between 1-3" though higher amounts around
4" are possible depending on thunderstorm coverage and tracks. given
the antecedent conditions with this forecast, a flood watch has been
issued for all of se mi through thursday evening.

late week:

mid-level ridging works across the central great lakes daytime
friday finally provides a reprieve from rainy weather. this however
is shortlived as a broad mid-upper trough digs out of the northern
rockies into the upper midwest/northern great lakes. attendant
surface low sends a respectable cold front through the local area
saturday-saturday night. additional showers and thunderstorms are
likely in advance with afternoon arrival currently favored. region
is outlooked in a day 5 15% risk due to the strong wind profile and
modest diurnal destabilization potential. much cooler air follows as
850mb temps fall from +14c saturday to -8c by sunday morning and
eventually -10 sunday night as the core of thermal troughing
crosses. this results in overnight lows sunday night below freezing
in the upper 20s to around 30f. given the warm stretch this week,
growing season is likely to have started for most of the area which
would warrant frost/freeze headlines.

marine...

surface warm front has lifted back toward saginaw bay, with
southwest flow to the south of the front and east flow for points
north. patchy fog persists over portions of lake huron north of the
front, but overall dry weather is in place. the next round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over northern il/wi late this
afternoon and track east-southeast into the local waterways
overnight as a line. strong to severe storms are expected mainly
after 04z (midnight local time), with potential for damaging wind
gusts over 50 knots, large hail over 1 inch, and isolated
waterspouts. this line of storms exits east around sunrise
wednesday, but unsettled conditions are expected to continue into
the weekend. each round of thunderstorm activity brings potential
for localized erratic waves and gusty winds. widespread headlines
are not expected.

hydrology...

multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms start this evening and
continue off-on through thursday evening. each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused
areas of thunderstorms develop, which offers flooding concerns given
the already wet spring and saturated soils. forecast rainfall totals
from tonight to thursday night range 1-3" across se mi with
potential for 4" dependent on coverage/track of thunderstorms each
episode. a flood watch is in effect for the entirety of the region
into late thursday night as a result. widespread flooding chances
are tied if areas see repeated thunderstorms and carry low
confidence in occurrence, however flooding of low-lying, poor
drainage, and urban areas are likely as is creek and river flooding.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch through late thursday night for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...kdk
marine.......mv
hydrology....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.