Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
343 pm est thu feb 5 2026

.what has changed...
an extreme cold watch warning has been issued for northwest
pennsylvania friday night into saturday morning with wind
chills of -25 to -30 degrees. a cold weather advisory has been
issued for northern ohio friday night into saturday morning with
wind chills of -15 to -24 degrees. widespread accumulating
snow, heavy at times, is expected affect our entire region
tonight through friday evening.

&&

.key messages...
1.) several periods of snow expected this evening through this
weekend. also, gusty northwesterly winds are expected friday
afternoon into friday night with areas of blowing snow.

2.)dangerous cold temperatures and wind chills are expected
behind the arctic front friday night through sunday morning.

3.) temperatures should rebound to near normal values by the
middle of next week ahead of the next potential weather system
to impact the region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
snow, gusty winds, and blowing snow:
a weak shortwave is currently tracking trough the lower great
lakes and into the upper ohio valley this evening. there is also
a warm front stretched from north to south over the western and
central great lakes region that will move through our area
tonight. short term forecast guidance indicates that the areas
of light to pockets of moderate snow just west of our area
should gradually decrease in coverage as it advances eastward
tonight. we have mentioned chance pops for light snow this
evening and overnight for mainly areas along and north of the
highway 30 corridor. a light dusting of snowfall up to half an
inch is possible overnight with this round of light snow.

the next round of snow will arrive friday morning and could
impact some of the morning commute. there is a slightly stronger
shortwave currently north of minnesota that will quickly track
southeastward into our area by friday morning. this weather
system is ahead of the arctic front that will arrive late friday
afternoon/evening. the shortwave system friday morning will
bring areas of widespread light to pockets of moderate snow to
the area. the timing of the round of snow for friday morning
will be between 7am and 1 pm.

there may be a lull in the light snow friday afternoon. then,
the arctic front will sweep through the area starting late
friday afternoon into the early evening. the latest 12z and 18z
hi-res forecast model guidance shows the arctic front arriving
in nwoh and around the toledo area around 4 pm and 6 pm. the
front will arrive in the cleveland area between 5 pm and 7 pm
and the erie, akron, canton, youngstown area between 6 pm and 8
pm. the guidance shows the potential for a broken line of
heavier snow showers or possible snow squalls along the passage
of the arctic front friday evening which may impact the evening
commute. the impacts for friday evening`s commute could include
brief bursts of heavier snow, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and
visibility dropping to less than 1 mile. behind the arctic
front, lake effect snow showers will be likely friday evening
gradually tapering off into early saturday morning for the
primary and secondary snowbelt. some lake effect snow squalls
will be possible for a short time period later friday evening.
total snowfall expected from tonight through early saturday
morning will be 1 to 2 inches for northwest ohio. 1 to 3 inches
of snowfall for areas closer to central ohio. for most of the
snowbelt 2 to 4 inches of snowfall is expected. there is a
winter weather advisory for inland erie county pa, geauga and
cuyahoga counties for total snowfall of 3 to 5 inches.

key message 2...
dangerous cold weather:
an arctic front will bring another blast of dangerous cold
weather friday night through early sunday morning. overnight low
temperatures friday night into saturday morning will drop down
between 5f and -5f. gusty northwest winds 15 to 25 mph will
cause wind chill values to drop between -15f to -25f. an extreme
cold warning has been issued friday night into saturday morning
for nwpa with expected wind chill below -25f. a cold weather
advisory has been issued friday night into saturday morning for
northern ohio with expected wind chill between -15f and -24f.

high temperatures on saturday will only reach into the single
digits to lower teens. wind chill values saturday afternoon will
stay mostly sub-zero. overnight low temperatures will drop again
between 3f to -8f saturday night into early sunday morning. the
wind chill values will drop back to -5f to -15f. additional cold
weather advisories may be needed for parts of neoh and nwpa
saturday night into sunday morning. high temperatures on sunday
will start to climb upward into the middle teens to around 20
degrees. it will be another frigid night sunday night down in
the single digits to lower teens.

key message 3...
near normal temperatures return next week:
the forecast model guidance shows a return to near normal or
seasonable average temperatures back in the forecast by the
middle of next week. the overall weather pattern will flatten
out and become somewhat zonal by the middle of next week. this
change of pattern will favor near normal temperatures back into
the 30s to low 40s for highs and overnight lows in the 20s.
there next weather system to potentially bring impacts to the
region may arrive late tuesday night through thursday. there is
quite a bit of uncertainty with the strengthen and track of the
system this far out because of the big change in the overall
weather pattern. we will mention in the forecast the potential
for a wintry mix and/or rain at this time during the middle of
next week. stay tuned!


&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
a mix bag of vfr and mvfr conditions are being observed across
the area this afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. conditions should gradually deteriorate through the
evening to have widespread mvfr ceilings between 2-3kft with a
few light snow showers possible across the northern terminals.
these conditions will further worsen to ifr and possible lifr as
widespread snow showers move into the area friday morning.
within snow showers, visibilities will likely drop to 1sm or
less, but for now opted to maintain the 1sm in the taf given a
bit of timing uncertainty. in addition, ceilings will gradually
lower to less than 1kft. these conditions will persist through
the remainder of the taf period.

winds this afternoon will persist from the southwest at 5-10
knots, gradually gaining a more westerly component friday
morning. after this taf period, wind gusts of 20-30 knots are
possible from the northwest as the cold front departs to the
east.

outlook...non-vfr likely friday evening as the clipper system
continues to bring snow to the area. northwest wind gusts of
30-35 knots will be possible friday evening through saturday
morning.

&&

.marine...
lake erie continues to remain primarily ice covered, although
some cracks in the ice have been observed on satellite imagery,
especially across shipping channels. this ice is expected to
persist into the future, however there is a potential for some
shifting ice come friday night into saturday as a potent alberta
clipper brings a cold front east late friday. behind this cold
front, winds will shift to northwesterly and increase to gales
across the western and central basins, with 20-30 knots possible
in the eastern basin. as a result, a gale watch has been issued
for friday night. these strong winds have the potential to
shift ice and close the existing shipping channels in addition
to some compaction of ice along the shoreline. winds will
gradually calm throughout the day on saturday and then remain
that way into at least next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 1 am to noon est saturday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter weather advisory from 7 am friday to 1 am est saturday
for ohz011-013.
pa...winter weather advisory from 7 am friday to 1 am est saturday
for paz002.
extreme cold warning from 1 am to noon est saturday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
150 pm est thu feb 5 2026

.key messages...

- light snow continues this afternoon and evening with up to 0.5` of
accumulation possible.

- low confidence of light freezing drizzle occurring overnight. ice
accumulations of a glaze to a hundredth or two possible.

- 1-2" snow is expected friday morning with the highest amounts
along and south of us 24.

- additional light lake effect friday night with 1-2" for berrien
and la porte counties.

- a brief period of bitter cold friday night into saturday will
be followed by a warm up into early to middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 149 pm est thu feb 5 2026

focus remains on the next 24-36 hours with multiple chances for
precipitation in the forecast. surface observations currently show
light snow attempting to overcome dry air and filling across the
area as the first of two 500mb shortwaves sweeps through the area. a
dusting to up to 0.5" of snow accumulation is expected this
afternoon with this first round of snow. this evening and overnight,
with a lull in snow, freezing drizzle may develop. forecast
soundings using hi-res model guidance show a lack of cloud ice after
00z tonight, which lends to potential for freezing drizzle,
especially since low level stratus clouds are expected to persist
overnight. the rap shows favorable parameters for drizzle with 0-1km
rh > 90% and ceilings hovering around 1000 ft tonight. with this in
mind, have kept the mention of freezing drizzle in the forecast. hi-
res guidance (particularly the hrrr and nam) continue to show
potential for patchy light freezing drizzle ahead of the next round
of snow set to move through friday morning. confidence in area,
intensity, and impacts from freezing drizzle is low; if anything,
ice accumulations will likely be light with just a glaze to a tenth
or two possible.

however, confidence is increasing in a period of potentially
impactful snow around the morning commute timeframe for friday. a
second 500mb shortwave will bring a more potent round of snow to the
area by daybreak tomorrow. hi-res guidance has trended slightly
southward with the system in recent runs, bringing in more qpf and
thus more widespread snow to the area. this clipper system will dive
southeast through the area friday morning. with temperatures rising
to at or above freezing by late friday, this may limit snowfall
efficiency but may decrease the slr. what this means is the
snow that falls friday morning will likely have slrs closer to
normal (13:1) with additional moisture and milder temperatures.
overall accumulations of 1" are expected, with amounts up to 2"
possible along and south of us 24. there may be slick spots for
the morning commute but with southwest winds and a higher sun
angle, waa will likely limit higher accumulations as the day
progresses.

confidence is also increasing strong gusty northerly winds
developing friday afternoon and evening. the clipper system
bringing snow to the area friday morning is associated with a
deepening surface and attendant upper level low over the great
lakes. on the backside of this, a tightening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty winds to develop. with northerly low-level
winds and strong caa behind the clipper system, temperatures
fall friday evening and lake effect snow develops for northwest
indiana and southwest lower michigan friday afternoon into early
saturday. despite the shoreline of southern lake michigan being
mostly ice covered, the open waters are still unfrozen. with a
northerly fetch over lake michigan (and possible lake superior
connection), this is a favorable setup for lake effect. it is
still too early to determine exact amounts, but the best chances
for lake effect will likely be west of us-31. inversion heights
will be decent around 5-6 kft and there is good moisture and
lift within the dgz. some dry air may limit totals though and
there are limited theta-e lapse rates as friday progresses. with
the north fetch, lake effect snow amounts of 1-2" will likely
be highest in la porte and berrien counties.

an upper level ridge builds across the central conus over the
weekend, which will allow for lake effect to taper off saturday as
subsidence works in. bitter cold briefly returns with low as low as
the single digits friday night and saturday night. saturday`s highs
will only be in the teens. did want to note here that confidence is
low for low temperatures friday and saturday nights due to the
presence of lake effect clouds. in nw indiana where clouds likely
persist both nights, temperatures may only drop into the teens. away
from the lake, in locations that get clear skies, temperatures may
drop near zero. there will likely be a sharp gradient in low
temperatures across our forecast area both nights, which lends
itself to low confidence in temperatures at this time.

into next week, a warm up and possible thaw is on the way! while it
is too early to know just how mild temperatures will get, highs will
likely be above freezing for several days. normal highs this time of
the year are in the mid 30s; ensemble guidance has high temperatures
in upper 30s to low 40s by tuesday and wednesday. best chances for
highs above 40 will be along and south of us 24. we likely won`t
make a multi-day run of widespread highs in the 40s. there will be
increasing chances for precipitation by midweek; with above freezing
temperatures and ample waa, rain or freezing rain rather than snow
may be the dominant precipitation type(s). stay tuned!

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1245 pm est thu feb 5 2026

an upper vort max induced by a compact 125 knot jet streak will
dig across northern indiana this afternoon. some warm advection
and weak moisture return ahead of this feature will allow for
some light snow to overspread northern indiana through late
afternoon. snowfall accumulations are expected to be minor and
generally under a half inch at ksbn, with lesser amounts for
kfwa area where little to no snow accumulation is expected.
passage of this short wave later this afternoon/early evening
will lead to drying out of favored snow production layer which
results in some question as to freezing drizzle potential. some
lingering shallow warm advection lift could aid in patchy light
freezing drizzle potential this evening/early overnight, but
confidence in this scenario remains quite low. the active
pattern continues friday morning as another sheared wave helps
develop some low level frontal forcing for a period of snow
focused in the 10z-16z period. mvfr cigs to begin this period
should deteriorate to lower end mvfr or possibly ifr later
tonight into friday. in regards to winds, southwest winds around
10 knots with a few gusts to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon will
veer westerly behind sfc cold front friday am, but a secondary
through in the afternoon will bring some highs gust potential of
25 to 30 knots toward end of and beyond this forecast valid
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion...updated
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
235 pm est thu feb 5 2026

.key messages...

- occasional light snow through friday morning, with total
accumulations of an inch or two possible. a chance for freezing
drizzle exists tonight but no significant impacts are anticipated.

- a few snow squalls are possible between noon and 5pm friday, as
northwest winds ramp up and gust 30-40 mph. temperatures reaching or
slightly exceeding freezing friday afternoon will plummet friday
evening and night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 f range saturday
morning.

- dangerous wind chills of around 15 to 20 degrees below zero are
likely saturday morning before a modest warming trend occurs over
the weekend.

- above normal temperatures are possible tuesday and wednesday of
next week.

&&

.discussion...

a fairly messy forecast for the next 30 hours with as many as three
shortwave maxima and associated cyclonic circulations digging
southward in vicinity of lower michigan. adding to the complexity
are forecasted moisture profiles that are residing closer at the
margins with regards to depth of saturation into the dendritic
growth zone. trajectories and therefore incoming angle/approach of
the shortwaves and associate midlevel cyclonic circulations will
matter in the timing and duration of saturation. low confidence
exists in the precipitation forecast and uncertainty cascades from
there regarding potential impacts.

satellite imagery shows with broad initialization support that
differential cyclonic vorticity advection is occurring through all
of the area between 18-00z. no steep frontal feature to key in on,
rather shallowly sloped isentropic ascent between 10.0 and 15.0 kft
agl through 00z. surface temperatures creep upward into the lower
20s offering a better than normal accumulation efficiency. snow
accumulations of a dusting for most areas and up to a half inch in
the tri cities will be possible.

early tonight...500-400mb low pressure circulation will track near
the southern basin of lake huron between 00-03z this evening
effectively shunting deeper moisture to the east. forecast soundings
show midlevel dry air building downward to around 7.0 kft agl or to
approximately the -8c isotherm. questions arise to whether or not
ice nucleation will be able to persist during the early evening and
about the potential for freezing drizzle. lower column mean
saturation remains very high tonight, between 80-90%. did introduce
a chance for freezing drizzle in the forecast. little to no
confidence exists for any significant impacts if the freezing
drizzle does develop.

late tonight...the next vorticity maximum is progged to track from
minneapolis to northeast illinois by 12z friday morning but with a
midlevel low pressure circulation quite removed to the northeast
over lower michigan. this displacement of the low and the vort max
is causing all sorts of uncertainty within the model guidance. plan
view progs of moisture on isentropic surfaces supports an additional
period of midlevel moisture advection spilling to the northeast,
tracking with the midlevel low center through the northern cwa and
the thumb between 05-12z tonight. while model signal is not
overwhelmingly convincing, did increase 6 hourly forecasted snow to
around a few tenths to a half inch prior to 12z. confidence is low
in any widespread impacts to the friday morning commute. for
context, nbm 5.0 24 hour snow accumulations ending at 18z friday has
the 25th percentile at near 0.0 inches and the 75th percentile at
around 1.0 inch.

friday...lift from true differential vorticity advection will
largely remain to the south and west of lower michigan. will likely
see some light snow lingering from seeder feeder processes from the
i 96 corridor southward 12-14z. a lull is quite possible during the
midday period as some active subsidence works to dry the column
between 7.0-12.0 kft agl. the big forecast issue for the late friday
period will be the arrival/passage of arctic front north to south
between 17-22z. quite normal to wonder on potential snow squall
development with weak instability developing due to the shallow cold
front. at this time, the signal is not overly strong for a large
coverage. the reasoning is that convective depths and saturation
will be a struggle to extend upward into the dendritic growth zone.
additionally, northwest flow trajectories takes any moisture fluxing
off of a iced saginaw bay or lake huron off of the table. with all
of that stated, expecting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph which may cause
a blowing and drifting component to freshly falling snow so impacts
to travel and the evening commute may arise. given the lower
coverage, the thinking is short fused products may best handle the
messaging.

saturday morning...a cold weather advisory will likely be needed for
the morning hours with current forecasted winds holding 15 to 20
mph. forecasted wind chills are ranging 15 to 20 degrees below zero
which would result in dangerous conditions.

a slow warmup is anticipated to close out the weekend with a better
moderation of temperatures by tuesday and wednesday. temperatures in
the midweek timeframe could reach approximately 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.marine...

low pressure tracking toward hudson bay leads to active marine
conditions through early saturday morning. current conditions are
governed by a leading upper level wave, which has generated light
snow across most of lake huron. organized southwest flow generally
between 15 to 20 knots is also ongoing. this low begins to occlude
friday morning, sending an arctic front across the great lakes
region mid-morning through early afternoon. winds become
northwesterly and quickly ramp up as mixing depths rapidly increase
in the wake of strong cold advection and an elevated low level jet.
upgraded the existing gale and heavy freezing spray watch to
warnings with this update. main question going forward is whether to
add in the far northern lake huron zone and outer saginaw bay, where
there is a mixed signal for stability due to the existing ice cover.
local probabilistic guidance is trending upward, so an expansion of
the warning may be necessary in subsequent updates. quieter
conditions arrive this weekend as high pressure fills in.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 232 pm est thu feb 5 2026


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning from 1 pm friday to 4 am est saturday
for lhz361>363-462.

gale warning from 1 pm friday to 4 am est saturday for lhz362-363-
441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.