Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
953
fxus61 kcle 132353
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
653 pm est fri feb 13 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast. a more
prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this
weekend and into next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) a more prolonged period of above average temperatures will
return this weekend and continue into next week.

2) rain is likely on wednesday, and possibly again thursday
night into friday as a pair of systems move through the region.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

above average temperatures are poised to return on saturday as
a large upper-level ridge develops across much of the central
and eastern conus. the latest guidance suggests that this ridge
should persist through at least mid-week as a more dominant
upper- level trough develops across the western conus.

in terms of temperatures, highs in the 40s for the weekend will
increase further into the low to mid-50s by early next week. the
warmest day appears to be on wednesday with temperatures reaching
the upper 50s to lower 60s in some spots behind a warm front.
minimal precipitation is expected through wednesday which does
bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on area rivers and a
melting snowpack.

.key message 2...

a period of widespread rain is likely on wednesday as a low
pressure system lifts a warm front north through the area. rainfall
amounts will generally be a quarter of an inch or less, with
higher amounts closer to a third of an inch found across
northeast ohio into northwest pennsylvania. another system is
expected to take a similar track northeast into the midwest by
thursday night into friday which may bring another round of
widespread rain into the area. once again, rainfall amounts
should be generally light, generally a quarter of an inch or
less.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
a weak surface trough moving through the eastern great lakes
region has allowed for a mid-level cloud deck to stretch across
southwest ontario into northwest ohio. these clouds around 8
kft will continue east through the area this evening into
tonight. there should be some clearing behind this front tonight
and there could be some brief mist that gets into ktol and
maybe as far south as kfdy. saturday should be relatively clear
with high pressure across the region and southerly flow. the
lone exception will be keri where non-vfr clouds will persist
off lake erie behind this front. low pressure moving through the
ohio and tennessee valleys for saturday night into sunday will
extend mid-level clouds into the area late in the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered, though above normal
temperatures will deteriorate lake ice through the end of next
week. winds are relatively quiet through the next several days,
aside from a brief period of ~15 knot southwesterly winds
tonight. stronger winds around 15 to 25 knots are possible
wednesday into thursday as a the region is impacted by a low
pressure system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...sefcovic
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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697
fxus63 kiwx 132310
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
610 pm est fri feb 13 2026

.key messages...
- patchy fog possible again tonight.

- 20-40% chances for rain saturday night into sunday morning, mainly
along and south of us 30. amounts less than 0.10".

- highs in the 40s this weekend; several days with highs in the 50s
likely next week.

- an active weather pattern returns with additional chances for rain
and gusty winds for the later half of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 147 pm est fri feb 13 2026

high pressure over much of the eastern conus is bringing quiet and
dry conditions across our forecast area today. skies are expected to
remain mostly clear overnight, which sets the stage for another
night with fog potential. much like last night, winds are expected
to diminish after sunset. patchy dense radiation fog will be
possible across the area, much like the past few nights. models
vary widely with visibility on saturday morning. my only
hesitation is that dewpoint depressions may end up being a few
degrees more than what they have been over the past few nights,
which may limit fog development. confidence is low but the best
opportunity for any fog to develop would be between 06-13z
saturday.

over the past few days, have been mentioning the presence of a
strong upper level trough and associated surface low across the
southern us. well now, it appears that this system will be so far
south that it will be unable to provide adequate moisture to support
anything more than very light rain. in fact, high-res model guidance
continues to trend downwards on both precip chances and qpf. south
of us 30 will be on the far northern periphery of the system, with
light rain possible late saturday into early sunday. amounts will be
vry light, only a few hundredths in most places, if any rain is
observed at all. with mid level dry air to overcome, it may
just end up as virga. low chances for rain (15-25%) still exist
for late saturday into sunday morning, although best chances now
will be south of us 24. areas along and north of us 30 will
stay dry.

a strong upper level ridge is then expected to build across the
central and eastern conus into early next week. confidence continues
to increase for well above normal temperatures for the early and
middle parts of next week. the latest cpc 6-10 day temperature
outlook continues to highlight high probabilities (70-90% chances)
for above normal temperatures. ensemble models highs climb into the
40s over the weekend and then into the 50s by early next week. the
warmest day will likely be wednesday before the ridge flattens out;
widespread highs in the low 50s are possible along and south of us
30 as a warm front lifts north. highs in the 50s are likely; some
locations south of us 24 may even make a run at 60 degrees! a more
active pattern looks to resume with gusty winds, rain, and maybe
even some embedded thunder developing along and north of the
aforementioned warm front. above normal temperatures continue
through at least late next week with perhaps additional chances for
rain with a system on thursday/friday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 610 pm est fri feb 13 2026

high pressure and dry air will maintain primarily vfr conditions
this period. there remains a chance for some patchy br around
sunrise similar to this morning. however, moisture profiles are
highly marginal and visibilities could remain above 6sm. high
clouds begin to increase sat evening ahead of the next system
but no impacts are anticipated.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
377
fxus63 kdtx 140454
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1154 pm est fri feb 13 2026

.key messages...

- no precipitation expected through the weekend.

- above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

a dry and stable low level environment maintained within departing
high pressure will support vfr through the overnight period.
veering wind from southwest to west as low pressure tracks by to the
north. weak frontal passage associated with this system will draw
slightly cooler air into the region late tonight and early saturday.
mixed signal on degree of possible lower cloud expansion into
portions of southeast michigan but enough confidence to highlight a
window for lower stratus development at mainly mbs saturday morning.
fnt likely within a radius for possible/brief development. light
southeast flow saturday afternoon with vfr favored as daytime
heating effectively lifts/mixes out any prospective pockets of lower
cloud. a more favorable environment for fog and/or very low stratus
may materialize saturday night as easterly flow draws lingering
moisture back into the region.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into saturday
morning.

* low for cibs/vsby to fall below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late saturday
night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 335 pm est fri feb 13 2026

discussion...

dry and warm weather will carry us through the weekend as wave after
wave within the southern stream of the jet continues to build
stronger ridging through the central plains gaining more of a
stronghold over the great lakes. this shift in the southern stream
is forcing the colder air back up into canada while also pushing the
northern stream wave train north of the region. this combined with a
southern stream cutoff low drifting east across texas holding
associated active weather to our south, will leave se mi in a void
between the two more active weather regions.

for this evening into tonight there is a trough draped across
northern lake huron that will continue weakening while the mid level
shortwave dives to the southeast away from the region. while there
is a chance of seeing a few snowflakes or rain/snow mix this evening
over the northern thumb, but the dry resident airmass will make it
tough for much other than clouds from occuring. temps have risen
into the upper 30s to 40f this afternoon across much of the area but
the northern thumb is holding around freezing. dewpoints down in the
teens and low 20s will set the bar for low temps potential tonight.
continued warm air advection will likely add a degree or two to
these values though.

northern and southern streams continue to jockey for control over
the region through the rest of the weekend leading to a slowly
moderating airmass with low 40s saturday and low-mid 40s sunday.
early week northward surge with the jet will bring a little warmer
air for monday with max temps of 50 possible. some fluctuation
through mid week but temps should remain above 40 through thursday.

next chance of precipitation look arrive tuesday night and wednesday
as isentropic ascent above a baroclinic zone that should hold just
to our south. this leads to a long duration precip event where a
mixed precip scenario may setup over lower mi. early on the
deterministic gfs and ecmwf are far apart in outcomes with gfs
setting up mixed precip over northern lower and up whereas the ecmwf
is across southern mi. gfs would lead to warmer rain setup for se mi
whereas the ecmwf would keep us cooler with mixed precip possible.
we`ll advertise high pops at this point with models agreeing on the
general setup, and monitor trends for ptype through the next few
days.

marine...

a clipper system over lake huron will exit to the east later this
evening with snow coming to an end and wind shifting to nw at around
10 to 15 kt. high pressure becomes dominant on saturday with light
and variable winds. relatively benign marine weather persists into
early next week with the prevailing storm track situated south of
the great lakes. the next weak clipper/trough moves through the
northern great lakes on sunday with just a slight uptick in s to ssw
wind to around 10 to 15 kt expected. a period of more active weather
is possible by the middle of next week with multiple low pressure
systems tracking through the region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...drk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.