Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
186
fxus61 kcle 272049
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
349 pm est thu nov 27 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure centered over the northern great lakes region will
maintain a surface trough over the area through friday. a very brief
area of high pressure will push east on saturday before another
system moves from the southern plains northeast across the region on
sunday. high pressure returns for the start of next week.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
the main focus will be continued lake effect snow across the snowbelt
region through friday and into friday night, with the most impactful
snow falling through tonight. a few wind gusts up to 45 mph remain
possible near the immediate lakeshore through the first half of
tonight, for which a wind advisory remains in effect.

outside of the lake erie snowbelt, flurries and scattered snow
showers are expected this evening as a shortwave and weak surface
trough cross the area. these may leave a dusting of snow, especially
towards and after sunset. some flurries and brief snow showers from
lake michigan will likely continue to stream east-southeast across
northwest and north central oh overnight tonight into friday, with
additional localized dustings where snow showers track. lows will
range from near 30 along the immediate lakeshore to low-mid 20s well-
inland tonight, with wind chills in the 10s. highs on friday will be
similar to or perhaps a degree or two warmer than today, mainly low to
mid 30s, with mainly dry conditions outside of the minor lake michigan
activity. lows friday night will range from the upper 10s well-
inland to the mid 20s along the lake, with mainly clear and quiet
conditions outside of the lake effect.

as for the lake effect...

will start with changes to the forecast...based on current band
placement and organization, have upgraded trumbull county to a lake
effect snow warning. based on reports of 1-3" this morning, a period
of no accumulating snow and melting this afternoon, and forecast new
amounts of 1-4" in northern ashtabula and 2-5" in northern erie for
the rest of the event, downgraded the two lakeshore zones to an
advisory to reflect overall lower impacts in those lakeshore
communities. otherwise, all headlines remain as previously posted.

activity is increasing in organization and intensity this afternoon as
lift improves ahead of an approaching shortwave and surface
trough...these features will cross early this evening, veering winds
to a bit more of a west- northwest direction, especially over the
lake. a secondary trough will drop across the lake around midnight,
bringing another increase in synoptic moisture/lift and veering the
winds more late tonight into friday morning. the flow will remain
west-northwest through friday before starting to back more westerly
friday night as surface ridging builds in.

expect the lake effect to continue inching south through this
evening, push south a bit more substantially overnight tonight, hold
nearly steady in location through friday, and then start shifting
east-northeast friday night. activity will peak in intensity through
the first half of tonight as instability increases/deepens and as
cooling temperatures aloft allow for improved snow growth and higher
snow to liquid ratios. snow rates of 1 to briefly 2 inches per hour
are possible within the more organized bands through midnight tonight.
conditions become slightly less conducive for lake effect overnight
tonight resulting in perhaps a modest downtrend in organization and
intensity, with a more notable period of some subsidence and drier
boundary layer air expected for several hours during the day friday.
this, along with high temperatures near freezing, should lead to snow
accumulations and impacts notably decreasing during the day friday.
one last uptick in organization and intensity is possible into friday
evening as winds begin backing, lengthening the fetch over the lake
and increasing convergence near the shoreline. however, building
ridging will likely put a lid on how prolonged or intense this uptick
is friday evening into friday night.

there are currently three bands of lake effect evident on radar...a
primary one across the western basin into the cleveland area,
extending east-southeast towards trumbull county...another from
eastern lake/northern ashtabula into southern erie and northern
crawford...and a third clipping northeastern erie county pa. between,
less organized and more cellular snow showers are ongoing. the
southern band near cleveland is and likely will remain the most
intense. expect the ongoing bands to inch south through this evening.
as winds veer more west- northwest overnight into friday we will
likely see these bands push farther south and then break apart into a
mix of weaker and more narrow multi-bands and more general upslope
snow showers. the exception is the current primary southern band,
which may maintain some organization into friday morning across parts
of central/southern cuyahoga county, northern summit/portage counties
and into most trumbull. some light accumulations are in the forecast
as far southwest as northern/eastern lorain, northern medina, central
summit, central portage, and northern mahoning county to account for
some uncertainty regarding how far south this band may push friday
morning before likely breaking up by midday. one or two more organized
west-east bands may re-develop friday evening into friday night from
the cleveland area points east, though intensity shouldn`t be too
crazy by then (rates perhaps in the 1/2" per hour range).

no major changes to the overall snow totals, though given an
increasingly short fetch and onshore component to the strong flow off
the warm lake, lakeshore communities will continue to generally see
lesser accumulations. this is one area where overall totals trended
notably down from the prior update. given current organization into
trumbull county totals there increased just a bit, enough to prompt
the warning upgrade. otherwise, the flavor of the event remains the
same as previously laid out with peak amounts across the higher
terrain of the primary snowbelt, with localized storm totals over 12"
in northeast ohio and up to 20" in southeastern erie county pa. will
also need to monitor northern portage over the next several hours, as
if good banding settles into there this evening the route 82 corridor
would likely see 5-8" of snow, which would need a warning. the
current end time of headlines of 7 pm in ohio may be a bit awkward if
we see a last gasp uptick in intensity friday evening, though will
allow future forecasts better evaluate that.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
the main focus for the short term forecast period is the increasing
likelihood of widespread light to moderate accumulations of wet snow
late saturday afternoon through early sunday morning across the entire
area, with the greatest impacts expected saturday evening and saturday
night and the highest accumulations expected across northwest ohio.

a flat shortwave and associated (fairly weak) surface low will lift
east-northeast out of the upper mississippi valley and into the
southern great lakes saturday night into sunday. most of our
precipitation with this system will come courtesy of warm/moist
advection and lift within the warm conveyor belt ahead of the
shortwave and surface low between late saturday afternoon and early
sunday morning. a mid-level dry slot will overspread the area sunday
morning, allowing for a decrease in precipitation intensity and
perhaps even some dry breaks. the low pressure`s accompanying cold
front crosses sunday afternoon/early evening, with colder air aloft
returning amid west-northwest flow as a weak mid-level deformation
zone grazes the forecast area. this will bring some returning light
precip chances late in the day sunday that give way to (relatively
minor) lake effect across the snowbelt sunday night.

temperatures aloft are forecast to remain cold enough for mainly or
all snow through this event, though mid-level warm air may get close
to the route 30 corridor east of mansfield during the day sunday. that
said, it will be surface temperatures that will be most impactful to
precip types and potential snow ratios/accumulations. expect
everything to start as snow saturday afternoon and evening. surface
temperatures will likely climb above freezing from southwest to
northeast between 3-9 am sunday, with surface temperatures especially
likely to warm quicker once precip rates start diminishing in the dry
slot. it`s likely precip will start mixing with rain (especially
outside of northwest ohio) by sunday morning, with a rain/snow mix
forecast through most of sunday...transitioning back to snow (where
precip remains, primarily in the snowbelt) sunday night.

a push of seasonably moist air, on the nose of a strong low to mid-
level jet beneath a period of coupled jet support aloft, does support
a decent period of steady snow late saturday into saturday night from
west to east across the area. the nature of the snow, primarily driven
by warm air advection, does argue for increasingly low snow ratios and
perhaps general under-performing, which makes us skeptical of more
robust snow amounts output by models such as the nam (which has quite
a bit more mid-level frontogenesis and banding potential than most
other models). that said, there are still enough "positives" that a
widespread accumulating snow is becoming rather confident for the
entire area. the ground will be cold enough for road accumulations,
particularly saturday night, so some impacts are on the table. the
general flavor of the forecast is a 1-3" snow across northeast oh and
northwest pa, increasing to 3-5" across northwest oh, where somewhat
more prolonged/intense lift is favored by most guidance (to go along
with a slower warming of surface temperatures through the event). a
winter weather advisory is likely for parts of northwest ohio. while
considered less-likely, if additional guidance trends towards showing
stronger lift and more mid-level frontogensis (like the nam does),
the potential for amounts to approach warning criteria around toledo
and advisory criteria farther east than currently expected is there.

highs on saturday will generally reach the low to mid 30s. lows
saturday night will be early, in the upper 20s and lower 30s. highs on
sunday will range from the mid 30s to near 40, with lows sunday night
falling back to a very chilly upper 10s to mid 20s range.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
the main potential weather impact next week will be a shortwave and
associated surface low passing to our south and southeast on tuesday.
most guidance suggests this shortwave will be fairly broad and
unphased, leading to weaker low pressure that perhaps tries spreading
some light snow towards our southern and eastern counties. a more
phased solution could bring lighter snow to much of the area and more
moderate accumulations from eastern ohio into northwest pa, though
odds of that are on the lower side with the weaker solution currently
favored. otherwise, generally colder than normal weather continues
with the next cold front (with perhaps a bit of rain or snow) looking
to move across the area on thursday.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
lake effect snow continues across the snowbelt region of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through the taf
period, though the heaviest snowfall rates of 1"/hr and 1/4sm
visibility seems likely to miss most taf sites. outside of the
snowbelt, snow showers are likely for much of the area as snow
showers stream off of lake michigan. visibilities within snow
bands will vary between 1-5 sm. ceilings will generally be in
the 1500-3500 ft range. the best potential for heavy snow and
visibilities of 1 sm or lower will be at kcle and kyng late this
evening through the predawn hours friday morning.

gusty winds will continue at all terminals today. most locations
will have westerly winds around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots.
winds may be stronger at keri where flow off lake erie could
result in winds gusting to 35 knots.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings will continue across parts of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through saturday
morning. a low pressure system will enter the great lakes
region this weekend, bringing light to moderate snowfall
areawide late saturday afternoon through sunday morning, with
lake effect snow lingering across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through monday.

&&

.marine...
west winds around 25-35 knots across lake erie with gale-force winds
primarily across the eastern half. the gale warning was canceled
early west of vermilion and replaced with a small craft advisory.
elsewhere, the warnings were unchanged.

due to the continued strong westerly winds, a low water advisory
remains in effect on the western basin of lake erie through 4 am
friday. water levels will oscillate near the critical mark through
at least this evening.

high pressure with good marine conditions will be over lake erie on
saturday for a brief window. southerly winds ramp up to 30 knots
saturday night as low pressure tracks from the southern plain into
the central great lakes. winds veer to westerly sunday and
northwesterly sunday night and additional small craft advisories are
likely saturday night through sunday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est friday for ohz011>014.
wind advisory until 1 am est friday for ohz012-089.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est friday for ohz021>023-
089.
pa...wind advisory until 1 am est friday for paz001.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for paz001.
lake effect snow warning until 1 am est saturday for paz002-
003.
marine...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning until 10 am est friday for lez145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
697
fxus63 kiwx 272015
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
315 pm est thu nov 27 2025

.key messages...

- lake effect snow will persist into friday.

- blustery and cold today with wind chills in the teens to
around 20.

- snow will develop late friday night and persist into sunday.
holiday travel impacts and hazardous road conditions likely.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 pm est thu nov 27 2025

lake effect snow continues this evening and into friday
afternoon with the northwesterly to westerly flow and the main
cellular les bands will shift northward with time. a few bursts
of moderate to even heavy snowfall will be possible mainly
north of sr-6. snowfall will begin to diminish beginning friday
afternoon as warmer air aloft begins to push northeastward ahead
of the next system that will bring much more impactful weather
to the area.

this next system that will originate from the gulf of alaska and
swing southward into the plains states before moving eastward
into the ohio valley region beginning late friday night through
sunday. with cold airmass still in place on friday night all
snow will be expected and spread eastward across the area.
however by saturday afternoon some isentropic lifting will push
a warm nose mainly over the southeastern portions of the cwa
which will bring a mix of rain/snow for those locals. further
north and west all snow albeit more of the wet variety will be
expected to continue through the entire event. this will bring
the heavier snowfall amounts for the northwestern portions of
the cwa especially for the areas adjacent to lake michigan which
will also see a more lake enhanced snowfall late saturday into
sunday with the colder airmass that will begin to push in with a
southerly flow becoming northwesterly in the western half of
the low circulation. at this time snow totals look to range from
about 2 inches or so over the far southeastern portions of the
cwa and potentially up to around a foot of snow for our
northwestern portions of the area. of course, with a more wet
snow with the warm nose moving over the region snow on the
ground will likely compact in a more slushy base quickly which
will affect the ultimate ground measurements, so would be
advisable to measure often and early during the event. with the
holiday travel we did want to push the messaging a bit harder as
the roads will be hazardous and travel times greatly impacted
during this storm. another thing to consider is for the post
main snowfall event, the roads, especially on untreated roads,
may become very slick with colder air ushering in on the heels
of this system which would freeze the wet slushy snow on road
surfaces making for treacherous travel. lows by monday morning
will drop into the teens across the area. temperatures next
week will remain very cold with highs only in the 20s and lows
in the teens. will need to continue to monitor for the cold
temperatures for future necessary product issuance.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1209 pm est thu nov 27 2025

lake effect snow showers continue in a disorganized cellular
mode. depth of moisture profiles and limited fetch appear to be
limiting factors for more organized lake effect setup. by later
this afternoon, another mid level trough will bring a
reinforcing low level thermal trough across the southern great
lakes. inversion heights and moisture depths will increase as
this low level thermal trough advects into the area which should
allow for some better lake effect snow organization late this
afternoon into this evening. ksbn continues to be on western
fringe of more notable lake effect snow showers with higher end
ifr vsbys around 2sm persisting. some light snow showers/flurries
are also reaching kfwa, but conditions remain higher end mvfr
or vfr. northwest winds will stay somewhat gusty through the
period with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm watch from late friday night through sunday
afternoon for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...winter storm watch from late friday night through sunday
afternoon for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
mi...winter storm watch from late friday night through sunday
afternoon for miz078>081-177-277.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est friday for miz078-079-
177-277.
marine...gale warning until 1 am est friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
297
fxus63 kdtx 272000
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 pm est thu nov 27 2025

.key messages...

- cold weather will persist into the weekend. winds will decrease
tonight. wind chills will be in the teens tonight and friday
morning.

- accumulating snow is forecast late saturday afternoon into sunday
morning, preliminary forecast totals are in the 3 to 6 inch range.

&&

.discussion...

there will be a gradual departure of the upper low northeast of lake
huron tonight into friday. moist cyclonic flow will however persist
across much of lower mi through the night. this will at least
sustain a low chance for some light snow showers/flurries. the low
level flow will veer from wnw to nw during the night, which will
largely focus the better lake effect activity outside of se mi.
despite some lingering gradient winds tonight, the airmass will be
quite cold with 850mb temps down around -12c. this will warrant min
temps into the 20s tonight and limit friday highs to the lower 30s.
strengthening mid level subsidence on friday will lower the
inversion height. bufkit soundings suggest super saturation wrt ice
within the -15 to -17 c layer, suggesting some flurries out of the
diurnal strato cu field.

the mid level wave now over the pacific northwest will be the main
focus for the weekend as it emerges in the lee of the rockies early
saturday and lifts across the ohio valley/great lakes region
saturday night. the 12z model suite agree that the wave will drive a
region of strong mid level positive vorticity advection across se
mi. upper jet coupling is also shown to support a broad region of
upper level divergence. enhanced low level flow is also shown to
transport a decent low level theta e axis/moist plume into the lower
ohio valley. system relative ascent in the mid levels is forecast to
be quite good across lower mi late saturday/saturday night. these
factors point to high probabilities for accumulation snow across all
of se mi as the column has trended a little colder the last few
model runs. model cross sections indicate decreasing static
stability, although it is quite elevated. while this all suggests
some decent snow accumulation potential, there a few potential
limiting factors. the strongest push of mid level isentropic ascent
is forecast to be rather progressive. while moisture looks good for
widespread snow, specific humidities in the 800-700mb layer are only
forecast to rise to 2 g/kg (which raises some concerns that several
model solutions may be high on qpf). forecast thermal profiles
indicate that dendrites may only be favored for a brief period,
which would cut down on snow to liquid ratios. both the gfs and
ecmwf also have some indication that mid level drying may occur
later in the period (especially across the eastern portions of the
forecast area) which may also cut down on snow accums.

among the array of probabilistic guidance, overall there is high
probabilities for total snowfall in the range of 3 to 6 inches by
sunday morning, with at or below 50% for over 6 inches. probabilistic
data for 3-hour snowfall during the peak of the event is high for 1
to 2 inches, generally low for 3 inches or more. these factors and
in coordination with wpc and surrounding offices will support
holding off on a winter storm watch for this issuance and will allow
for another model run to determine trends with this system. aside
from the typical uncertainty in snowfall amounts, there remains some
spread in onset. trends in probabilities are suggestive of snow
expanding across the area between 2 and 6 pm saturday, then
persisting to some degree into sunday morning.

&&

.marine...

wednesday`s low pressure system continues to push deeper into
northeastern canada allowing for a modest slackening in the pressure
gradient particularly across western and southern great lakes. this
trend has already been observed in lake clair with us ob sites no
longer reporting gales and western lake erie trending toward
consistent sub-gales. as a result, gale warnings for these waters
have been dropped in favor of small craft advisories. weakening
trend in gusts around the thumb lag however favored to fall below
gales late this evening which offers some potential for these
warnings to be dropped early with the 10pm forecast update. gradient
maintains better strength over the open waters of lake huron given
its closer proximity to the low supporting lower end gale potential
(34-38kt) through tonight into early friday morning. eventually the
northern edge of high pressure sliding across the ohio valley builds
into the central great lakes over the course of friday supporting a
slow, but steady decrease in winds with sub 30kt flow developing by
the latter half of the day.

high maintains light winds to start the weekend however southerly
winds strengthen toward 20-25kts by saturday night in advance of a
new low ejecting out of the southern plains and into the southern
great lakes. trends in the low track have shifted north, now
favoring the low center moving northeasterly over the saginaw bay
and central lake huron. shift northward brings more chances for rain
to mix in with snow for all but the northern areas. winds turn to
the northwest on the backside of the system second half of the day
sunday setting up a renewed push of arctic air over the region.
weaker low, compared to wednesday`s low, and a faster progression
into northeastern canada still lends to a less favorable gale setup.
that said, there is remains modest potential (~30-40%) for a few
hour period of entry level gales across northern/central lake huron
sunday evening/early night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1200 pm est thu nov 27 2025

aviation...

westerly winds still gusting aoa 30 knots this afternoon, but
predominately low vfr cloud cigs with the daytime boundary layer
depths increased. streamers/flurries from lake michigan around as
well. more significant band up around saginaw bay, and is expected to
remain east of mbs this afternoon. however, as low level winds veer
a bit more to the northwest this evening, its possible a few snow
showers impact the tri-cities region. otherwise, bulk of the lake
generated stratocu shrinks back toward lake michigan as subsidence
and some dry air takes hold this evening/tonight. this will support
periods of ceiling free skies over the taf sites, as streamer mvfr
clouds remain transient. low confidence on timing of the breaks
however, and mostly erred on the cloudier side for the tafs.

for dtw.. just some passing flurries possible this afternoon with
cigs holding under 5000 feet.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet this afternoon, medium tonight and
friday.

* low for crosswind threshold exceedence today.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 7 am est friday for lhz361-362.

gale warning until 10 am est friday for lhz363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lcz460.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez444.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est friday for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.