Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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929
fxus61 kcle 140600
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
200 am edt fri aug 14 2026

.what has changed...
heavy rain is possible from marion to mount vernon early this
morning. the pop forecast for saturday night into sunday has
been increasing as confidence in location and timing improves.
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on
saturday for the whole area, as well as for northwest
pennsylvania on sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through today
near and south of the us-30 corridor. heavy rain is possible
from approximately marion to mount vernon this morning.

2) showers and thunderstorms will return saturday night through
sunday. heavy rain is likely saturday night, with a few
stronger storms possible sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a surface stationary boundary lingers over the lower ohio
valley, though forcing in the 850-700 mb layer extends well
north of this boundary. in the immediate near term, light to
moderate rain showers have generally remained south of a wood to
wayne county line. showers should gradually expand northward to
as far as a toledo-lorain-akron line but the risk for heavy rain
is likely to rain towards our southwest counties (marion to
knox) where the latest hrrr cycles project an inch of rain. the
risk for >2" of rain and subsequent flooding is low but not
completely out of the question, so we`ll have to monitor for
that this morning. rain showers dissipate through the afternoon
and we should be completely rain free by around 21z.

key message 2...
the next period for unsettled weather will be saturday night
through sunday as a low pressure system moves east across the
great lakes.

a stationary front lingering over the ohio valley will lift
northward across the area saturday night in response to low
pressure tracking across the great lakes region. a period of
heavy rain is becoming more likely saturday night as a highly-
anomalous moist air mass, characterized by pwats exceeding 2.0
inches, which is approaching the climatological maximum, enters
the area. there is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
saturday night.

the latest model guidance continues to be trending the strong
to severe storm threat further south of the area as any
redevelopment in the afternoon will likely focus along the
residual boundary from the overnight convection.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
light rain showers are sweeping southeast across southern
terminals. areawide vfr conditions will deteriorate to mvfr,
with patchy ifr, in patchy fog and low ceilings. highest
confidence in mvfr or lower will be across inland terminals in
western and central portions of the airspace. expect for any
reductions to improve after daybreak this morning.

light and variable winds overnight tonight will become east-
northeast while increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms saturday
afternoon into sunday.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions are expected to persist across lake
erie into this weekend as the area remains on the northern
fringe of a stalled boundary across the ohio valley. this will
keep winds variable and under 10 knots into saturday. on
saturday, the aforementioned boundary will begin to lift north
as a warm front which will be followed by a cold front on sunday
into monday. shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
beginning saturday and persist into sunday. southerly winds on
saturday will keep the highest waves along the northern
lakeshore before winds back behind the cold front sunday and
become northwesterly. this shift may result in waves building
1-3 feet across the central and eastern basins, however given
the magnitude of the low, not expecting any marine headlines at
this point. high pressure returns for the start of next week and
calm conditions persist.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...13
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 140650
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
250 am edt fri aug 14 2026

.key messages...

- showers and storms will slowly dissipate and exit the area
this morning. mainly dry conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening but a stray shower or storm can`t be
ruled out.

- more storms are likely on saturday and sunday. some of these
storms could be severe during the afternoon and early evening
hours. isolated heavy rain/flooding is also possible but the
overall flood risk is lower than recent days.

- dry conditions return monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 250 am edt fri aug 14 2026

intensifying llj and associated theta-e surge yielding widespread
convection across central in as expected this morning with a decent
eml nosing into our sw cwa. surface obs/mesoanalysis show frontal
boundary and associated surface instability gradient currently well
south of our area and strongest convection remains focused in ind`s
cwa. still getting a few storms and moderate rain along more
elevated portions of the front in our southern cwa where around 1000
j/kg of mucape still exists. these storms pose little/no severe risk
but will keep a close eye on rainfall amounts given how soaked that
portion of our cwa is. all of this activity should wind down shortly
after sunrise as the llj weakens and midlevel lapse rates stabilize
somewhat. the rest of the day should remain mostly dry as midlevel
ridge builds slightly over our area with general ava. still, the
airmass remains moist and there are some hints of a weak mcv
arriving late in the day. these two factors could support some
isolated convection during the afternoon and evening but coverage
and impacts should remain very low. flood watch currently runs until
15z but may be able to cancel a few hours early if convective trends
behave as expected.

unfortunately, active weather will continue through the weekend.
stalled frontal boundary plaguing our area all week will lift north
as a warm front given exiting eastern canada upper low and eastward
ejection of what could be a very potent mcv out of the central
plains. mesoscale details are still somewhat unclear given a high
degree of spread among various models. however, the overall synoptic
stage is set for potential severe weather somewhere in the region.
another surge of the llj is expected, pushing at least moderate
instability into the area while 0-6km bulk shear values remain
strong enough on the ne fringes of this ridge to support organized
convection. one wild card is that convection will likely be ongoing
during the morning and that could limit instability during the
afternoon. hi-res cam`s are split on whether we will get organized
redevelopment later in the day. if organized convection can develop
then straight-line winds would be the main concern, but hail and
tornadoes can`t be ruled out. luckily, best chances for storms are
currently leaning toward our northern cwa which can handle more rain
better than our south. these storms will also be more progressive
with less potential training/backbuilding. will obviously have to
watch the hydro aspect given our water-logged south but overall
doesn`t appear to be a huge flooding risk at this point.

the front returns south as a cold front on sunday. once again,
severe weather is a possibility given moderate levels of mlcape and
deep layer shear. a lot will depend on the exact timing with the
potential for an early afternoon frontal passage that limits
instability for most of our cwa and focuses better severe chances
just to our s/se. still plenty of time for refinements to this
forecast though. thankfully, quiet weather finally returns sunday
night and persists through at least tuesday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 143 am edt fri aug 14 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions at the terminals tonight,
with br around and light to moderate rain moving through kfwa.
ceilings/visibilities may drop briefly to ifr during heavier
rain or periods of br (obs between 1-4sm to the north/east even
outside rain). conditions improve to vfr by the afternoon
tomorrow.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-203-216.
oh...flood watch until 11 am edt this morning for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 140353
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1153 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

.key messages...

- chance for drizzle or light rain this evening, mainly along or
south of m59.

- showers and thunderstorms return late saturday into sunday.

&&

.aviation...

forecast soundings support a good amount of dry air holding in the
lowest 10.0 kft agl tonight. yet another convective complex will
develop over illinois and track towards portions of indiana tonight.
there is the potential for some isolated and short lived shower
development 8-14z from metro detroit southward as some lingering
deformation could support vertical motion. otherwise, calm wind and
august evapotranspiration will bring the potential for fog again at
daybreak. low confidence exists in the coverage of fog. surface high
pressure in amplifying midlevel ridging brings quiet weather
thursday. a good signal exists for dry mid and upper levels friday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated during the taf
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight. moderate friday.

* low for visibility restrictions of 1/2sm or less or ceilings at
less than 300 ft.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

discussion...

upstream mcs now entering indiana will continue to progress east
through the evening. convective activity will stay locked to the
cape gradient which resides across central indiana and trails down
into southwest ohio. however, the associated stratiform region which
extends through southern lake michigan will attempt to work across
the southern portion of the cwa through the evening. a modest dry
10kft dry layer in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere will work
to erode northern periphery of the ongoing stratiform rain, but
there looks to be enough saturation to overcome this layer closer to
the mi/oh border. the chance for this drizzle or light rain will
extend north to m59, but the more favorable probabilities are hedged
to the south. some isolated rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
noting elevated cape value aob 500 j/kg, but overall cape density is
poor with a weak and elevated cap around 20 kft. any prolonged
activity is expected to hold just along or south of the state line,
mainly across the ohio valley.

limited forcing under diffuse high pressure brings mostly dry
conditions tomorrow. the exception for very low end chances will
again reside closer to the mi/oh border if the northern periphery of
precipitation from low-level convergence encroaches into the cwa.
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances enter on saturday with
the best chances centered saturday evening to sunday morning.
initial shower and storm chances will be tied to lift along a warm
front that will push through in the late afternoon to evening hours.
w-e re-orientation of the llj will rapidly enhance moisture
advection, increasing pw values aoa 2" by saturday evening with 850mb dew
points nearing 18c. any subtle forcing will be capable of producing
showers or storms, but any more widespread activity would likely be
tied to maintenance and progression of a mcs originated from the
plains. passage of this system and area of convectively enhanced low
pressure will work to push a weak cold front across the great lakes
on monday. this will afford a window for drier conditions monday-
tuesday along with slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the low
80s.

marine...

high pressure continues to build across the great lakes and ontario
leading to generally quiet conditions across the region. the high
will be slowly shifting eastward eventually reaching the eastern
lakes by saturday morning. the stalled frontal boundary is still
lingering to the south and will be the focus for another round of
storms tonight, but it looks like most of the local area would avoid
the convection. once the high pushes off to the east saturday, the
next low will be developing to the west and should pass through the
area in the evening and overnight. winds will be light and variable
tonight before becoming northeasterly friday and increasing to 10 to
20 knots across southern lake huron. winds then turn southerly late
saturday and increase to around 20 knots ahead of a cold front
saturday night. winds then shift to the northwest on sunday behind
the front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.