Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
567
fxus61 kcle 161105
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
705 am edt thu jul 16 2026

.what has changed...
wildfire smoke will likely inhibit daytime heating a bit this
afternoon and friday so have decreased max/hourly temperatures
with this update. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe
weather has been introduced to the entire area for late saturday
afternoon into saturday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) wildfire smoke will produce poor air quality and likely
reduce visibilities through tonight and likely into friday.

2) periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected friday
through early next week. the greatest potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms is late saturday afternoon into saturday
night.

3) hot temperatures will persist across most of the area
through saturday before cooler weather arrives by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
north/northwest flow will continue to bring canadian wildfire
smoke into the area through tonight and likely into friday.
this will result in reduced visibilities in haze/smoke and
unhealthy air quality conditions across the local area,
especially today. partnering agencies have issued air quality
advisories for ground level fine particles for today, as air
quality will likely be hazardous for the general population.
given the hazardous air quality, it is recommended that people
limit time outdoors today. lingering north/northwest flow aloft
may keep smoke around through friday, but it`s possible that
surface smoke gradually decreases in coverage as surface winds
shift to the south during the day friday. either way, it will
likely take some time for smoke to completely diminish on
friday.

key message 2...
the upper level ridge will begin to break down on friday,
allowing shower and thunderstorm chances to return late week
into the weekend. pops will begin to increase from the southwest
friday evening/night as a warm front lifts northeast with pops
peaking as a cold front moves southeast across the area and low
pressure deepens over southern ontario saturday evening.

shower coverage/potential may be limited due to the stabilizing
effects of wildfire smoke friday afternoon and possibly into
friday evening. there`s still uncertainty in timing, but at this
point the best chance of organized convection and strong to
severe storms will be with the cold front at some point late
saturday afternoon into saturday night. mlcape values will
likely increase to 2000-2500 j/kg (possibly as high as 3000+
j/kg) ahead of the front and bulk shear values will be 30-40+
knots which will support potential for a broken line of strong
to severe storms. the main limiting factor would be
stabilization from any early day showers/storms, so will need to
keep an eye on rain chances saturday morning into saturday
afternoon. the entire local area is in a slight risk (level 2 of
5) of severe weather on saturday. storms may start off more
discrete and could produce large hail early, however the threat
will likely evolve into more of a damaging wind gust threat as
a line begins to take form saturday evening/night.

dry weather is expected on sunday, but periodic showers and
thunderstorms are likely monday night into tuesday.

key message 3...
upper ridging will produce continued hot temperatures through
saturday, although the wildfire smoke may help limit daytime
temperatures today and possibly on friday. highs will generally
be in the lower 80s across portions of far ne oh and nw pa this
afternoon with mid 80s and lower 90s anticipated elsewhere. dew
points will be in the 60s and around 70 degrees in the warmer
areas and heat index values will likely reach the mid to upper
90s south of u.s. route 30 during peak heating today.
temperatures will generally be in the 80s and lower 90s on
friday, although the coverage of wildfire smoke will likely
influence high temperatures; lower coverage than anticipated may
result in warmer temps, whereas higher coverage may result in
slightly cooler temps. saturday will feature one last day of
temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s before a cooler
weather pattern arrives sunday into next week. temperatures will
be below normal at times next week.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
conditions across the region continue to deteriorate as smoke moves
south from canada. there is currently widespread ifr visibility,
with some areas dropping down to less than a mile. additionally,
ceilings have fallen to mvfr with some ifr mixed it at less than
1000 feet. the smoke will linger through the entire taf period
keeping visibility down to 3sm or less and possibly into friday with
some uncertainty in when it will dissipate. expected non-vfr
visibility through the remainder of the week due to this. winds are
currently light at around 5 knots out of the west-southwest,
shifting to be out of the north by midday and increasing to 5-10
knots. by the end of the taf period after 00z, winds will shift to
be out of the north-northeast at around 5 knots.

outlook...non-vfr visibility possible through friday due to
canadian wildfire smoke. non-vfr likely friday night through
saturday night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
a cold front has pushed south of lake erie this morning and winds
have shifted to be out of the north at 5-10 knots. behind the front
today, winds will generally be around 5 knots or less and
predominantly out of the north, but will have some variability in
the direction. visibility across the lake will vary as well due to
the wildfire smoke moving in from the north. some areas may see
visibility drop down to less than 1 nm, so a dense smoke advisory
may be needed if coverage is great enough. a warm front will pass
over the lake late friday night into saturday and winds will
increase to 10-20 knots out of the south-southwest. waves as a
result will build to 1-3 feet mainly in the open waters and less
than 2 feet in the near shore zones. late saturday, a cold front
will move west to east across the region and winds will shift to be
out of the northwest at 10-15 knots and waves building to 1-3 feet
in the nearshore zones east of the islands. showers and
thunderstorms chances will increase starting early saturday with the
warm front and be possible throughout the day until the cold front
moves through. high pressure builds in briefly on sunday persisting
through monday with winds and waves subsiding.

another cold front will move through the region on tuesday
increasing winds and waves. there will be potential a small craft
advisory may be needed for tuesday with the frontal passage as waves
will build near 4 feet and winds will be 15-20 knots out of the
northwest. winds will diminish slightly behind the front into
wednesday, though should stay around 10-15 knots out of the
north.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...dense smoke advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
958
fxus63 kiwx 161057
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
657 am edt thu jul 16 2026

.key messages...

- a heat advisory is in effect for a portion of the area today.
the threat for hot conditions continues through the end of
the week.

- hazy to smoky conditions possible today from canadian
wildfire smoke.

- chances for showers and storms return late this week into this
weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 301 am edt thu jul 16 2026

bit of bad news in the forecaster realm as the noaa goes east,
goes-19 satellite has had an unexpected outage and currently
remains down leaving us a bit blind right now with no imagery
data since around 22z yesterday. this is obviously not good
especially with hurricane season upon us and hopefully the
engineers can get it back up and running. in the shorter term
this has hampered our observations of the canadian smoke that
has pushed into the region over the last day or so. skies will
continue to look smokey and hazy today. a slow moving cool front
is pushing southward into the area today and due to the frontal
boundary did issue a heat advisory for areas mainly south of
us-30 today with the slightly cooler and drier air to the north
and the upper level smokiness that looks to keep temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than otherwise with the decrease in
solar insolation.

over the next several days we will see shortwaves transiting
eastward around the ridge and into the area with one later today
just skirting to our south of our area but could cause a few
showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible over our
southwestern portions of our area. the better chances for
showers/storms look to come on friday and saturday with each day
with more pronounced troughing pushing into the area. the
better chances will be during the afternoon/early evening
periods. a few of the storms may become strong with gusty
outflows and heavy downpours the main threats. these
disturbances will bring cooler temperatures and dew points back
below 70 from sunday into next week.

a break in precipitation will also arrive on sunday as the
ridging makes another slight push northeastward into the region
before longwave troughing begins to push into the great lakes
on monday into tuesday bringing another shot of showers and
storms into the area. by tuesday and into the end of next week
near to below normal temperatures return bringing a better
reprieve to the heat lately.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 648 am edt thu jul 16 2026

stagnant airmass in place with canadian wildfire smoke pushing
down into the area. patchy ground fog/smoke has been observed
across the area however the impact to visibilities at both taf
sites have thus far been minimal. however, sudden changes are
possible but confidence is low at this time with diurnal
temperatures soon on the uptrend. winds will remain light and
variable through this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-104-116-204-
216.
heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
inz013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
air quality alert until midnight cdt tonight for inz103-203.
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
975
fxus63 kdtx 161031
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
631 am edt thu jul 16 2026

.key messages...

- egle has declared an air quality alert through tomorrow due to
canadian wildfire smoke reaching the surface and the resultant rise
in pm2.5.

- increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms friday through
the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

dense near surface smoke remains in place across all of southeast
michigan. with limited surface based mixing due to nighttime cooling
the potential exists for lifr conditions the first couple of hours
of the taf period. daytime heating will cause mixing heights to
increase which should allow surface visibilities to improve modestly
into the mvfr range today. persistent northwest flow is expected to
result in smoke through the end of the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...none today or tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling/vertical visibility at or below 5000 feet
today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 341 am edt thu jul 16 2026

discussion...

surface air quality observations and reduced metar visibilities
confirm the substantial wildfire smoke plume is fully entrenched
across se mi. persistent northwest flow with flow trajectories
extending to the ontario wildfires will maintain a steady supply of
smoke and provide little opportunity for meaningful improvement per
hrrr-smoke model. persistent smoke cover will introduce considerable
uncertainty into the high-temperature forecast given attenuation of
shortwave radiation through scattering and absorption leading to
suppressed boundary layer growth. as such, have tempered temperature
values down relative to statistical guidance, attempting to align
where modeled vertically integrated smoke is maximized. but overall
there is little precedence and limited guidance for smoke of this
density and persistence. highs have therefore been capped to 90
closer to the mi/oh border and urban metro region and hold in the
80s for locations north. outside of smoke/haze, dry weather prevails
under diffuse high pressure.

lingering haze/smoke holds into friday but wind direction will flip
to the south as high pressure washes out across the continental
northeast. this will attempt to work some of the haze/smoke out of
the region but overall gradient flow will be weak so this initially
will not be very efficient. this will usher in better moisture and
will bring the chance for showers and storms late friday into
saturday morning along the moisture/theta-e gradient as it initially
expands across sw michigan. a low pressure system that will move
across southern ontario/quebec and associated cold front that in
turn pushes across the great lakes will then bring likely chances
for showers and thunderstorms on saturday. projected favorable
afternoon or evening alignment of frontal passage could bring the
possibility for strong or severe storms noting ensemble mean values
of cape around 2000 j/kg and bulk shear values around 30 knots.
passage of the front will bring relief from the hotter than normal
and humid conditions. forecasted highs hold in the low to mid 80s
in the wake of the front through the midweek period.

marine...

dense smoke due to canadian wildfires has spread southward across
the entire central great lakes, in the wake of a backdoor cold front
last evening. the dense smoke advisory has been expanded to all
waterways until 10 am but an extension to later times will be likely. high
pressure builds back across the central great lakes today as north-
northwest winds hold this afternoon at or below 20 knots. the higher
values should be focused over the northern half of lake huron where
the pressure gradient is more constricted. weak low pressures systems
emerge over the northern plains and mid- mississippi valley tonight,
eventually converging over the great lakes with time on friday. this
leads to a more active period of showers and thunderstorms.
prevailing winds should generally remain below headline criteria
through the forecast period, with one exception being marginal small
craft advisory gusts over saginaw bay and/or the thumb nearshores
saturday afternoon. this arises within the wake of a cold front from
a secondary, and more robust, low pressure system passing through the
straits.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense smoke advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...dense smoke advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense smoke advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.