Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 pm edt thu may 7 2026

.what has changed...
the frost potential continues to decrease as clouds look to build
over the area tonight with scattered showers. best chance for any
patchy frost may be the inland portions of nw pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) cool temperatures linger through tonight with scattered showers
possible. clouds and rain showers should inhibit any frost formation
for much of the area, but some patchy frost is possible in inland
nwpa.

2) multiple cold fronts will push east this weekend, resulting in
multiple rounds of showers. rain totals should remain less than one
inch over two days, keeping any flooding potential at bay.

3) another cool airmass arrives early next week with below average
temperatures expected across the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
below average temperatures are being observed today with highs only
climbing into the low to mid 50s as a surface ridge lingers across
the area. tonight, an upper level short wave will impact the area as
a weak warm front is expected to lift north. isentropic lift coupled
with mid-level energy will provide enough support for isolated light
showers to occur and for widespread clouds to develop. these showers
and cloud coverage should minimize any frost potential as the lack
of radiational cooling allows temperatures to remain in the upper
30s to low 40s. the possible exception may be in portions of inland
nw pa where breaks in cloud coverage early may allow for
temperatures to fall a bit quicker and patchy frost to develop.
confidence is very low at this point, so opted to keep any frost
mention out of the forecast, but it wouldn`t hurt to protect
vulnerable vegetation given the very marginal conditions.

key message 2...
as the upper level trough become centered over the region it will
support the development of a surface low pressure. multiple cold
front associated with this low pressure are expected to push east on
friday through sunday, bringing multiple rounds of rainfall to the
area. the most widespread and consistent rain is expected to occur
late friday into saturday a cold front supported by an upper level
shortwave trough and llj of 30-35 knots pushing northeast.
additional cold fronts on saturday and sunday should provide an
additional focus for more shower development with little time to dry
out this weekend. temperatures on friday will be a touch warmer in
the low 60s before warming into the mid to upper 60s on saturday. as
the final cold front pushes east on sunday, high temperatures will
trend back down to below average. although this will be a prolonged
event, the overall airmass should support pwat values that are below
average for this time of year, ultimately resulting in less than one
inch of precipitation over the 3 day time span. given the limited
qpf totals and the extensive time frame, there remain no flooding
concerns. in addition, given the overall marginal forcing and lack
of instability, not expecting any thunder to associated these
showers.

key message 3...
the roller coaster of temperatures is expected to continue into next
week as another canadian airmass pushes southeast across the area
behind the departing cold front on sunday. highs through midweek are
expected to remain in the 50s before possible gradually warming near
the end of the work week. overnight lows will follow a similar
pattern with temperatures sunday and monday nights in the upper 30s
to low 40s. not expecting any frost at this point, however will have
to monitor the cloud coverage potential as widespread clearing could
result in temperatures a bit cooler than currently forecast.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
primarily vfr conditions are expected across terminals through
the taf period. some light rain showers will enter from the west
this evening and spread eastward through the overnight hours.
expecting for cigs/vis to remain vfr but drop to 3500ft and 6sm.
there remains a locally higher chance of mvfr cigs in rain
showers at keri through ~12z/fri. have this timeframe
highlighted in the taf with a prob30 group at all taf sites.

there will be a dry window where cigs will rise above 5000ft
friday morning/afternoon before another round of rain showers
enters the region late in the taf period on friday evening.
guidance indicates a higher probability of non-vfr ceilings
with patchy non-vfr visibilities with the second round of rain
showers. have kept all terminals except the 30-hr kcle taf at
vfr with this round of rain showers, but future tafs will likely
need to add in a mention of mvfr to ifr ceilings friday night
into saturday morning.

winds will vary between westerly to southwesterly at 5-10 knots
through the taf period. there may be a brief window of 15-20
knot westerly gusts at eastern terminals friday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are possible in periodic showers
and isolated thunderstorms friday night through sunday.

&&

.marine...
the weather and marine conditions for lake erie will generally
be quiet with some wind shifts through the weekend. high
pressure over is nearby the lake today bringing a westerly flow
of 10 to 15 knots that will continue through friday morning. a
weak low pressure system will track through the area late friday
into friday night with a brief window of light and variable
winds as it passes by. southwesterly flow will develop 10 to 15
knots on saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. the weak
front will move across the lake saturday night with a shift to
northerly flow 8 to 15 knots sunday into monday as high pressure
builds in over the great lakes region. a light southerly flow
will return by tuesday 5 to 12 knots. waves will be 1 to 2 feet
today through saturday. waves will increase 1 to 3 feet sunday
into monday with some 4 feet possible in the open water from the
northwesterly flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...13
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
717 pm edt thu may 7 2026

.key messages...

- several chances for showers through sunday. the best chance
appears to be late friday afternoon into friday night.

- afternoon highs through the period will be in the 60s and 70s.

- overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, but some upper
30s are possible monday and tuesday morning in lower mi.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1248 pm edt thu may 7 2026

despite some amplification in the upper heights, a series of
disturbances will still impact the region into the weekend with
chances for showers and maybe a storm or 2 (non-severe). gulf
moisture will be cut off, resulting in any precip tending to be
on the lighter side. the first wave arrives this afternoon into
tonight. upstream sfc and radar obs show a band of showers from
se iowa into central il. a second area of weaker returns
(appears to be virga at this time) extended from eastern wi into
central lower mi. some measurable precip has been noted with the
southern area (under a tenth of an inch), which will have the
better chance to bring some light measurable rainfall to
southern parts of the area (generally south of us-24). have kept
pops rather subdued in the chc category for the time being with
initial returns likely to not reach the ground for an hour or 2.
hints of additional shower development is noted by several
models with additional rounds of showers into the overnight
hours in the same area. have maintained some chc pops as a
result in the same general area.

a brief lull will occur friday before the next wave approaches
with all signs pointing towards better lift and moisture
arriving. areas south of us-24 will be favored once again, but
some indications of a more northward trend are suggested in a
few models. hrrr even develops a band of showers and storms
north of the main area of precip. some tweaks were made to pops,
but overall likely pops remain across the south, tapering off
with northward extent. pocket of cold air aloft may help with
thunder chances so slgt chc mention left in.

another weak wave and sfc front dive south late sat into sat
night with yet another chance for showers. mother`s day appears
to be mainly dry (maybe a few showers se in the morning) with
dry conditions by afternoon, lingering into monday. additional
chances for showers do exist next week as the semi active
pattern continues.

each wave will raise havoc on temperatures through the period
with 60s dominating much of the period (some occasional 70s in
between waves). morning lows monday and tuesday could be in the
upper 30s in ne areas, but way to early to determine any frost
potential.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 713 pm edt thu may 7 2026

showers are moving through this evening as a remnant outflow
boundary pushes through the area. expect vfr ceilings continue
this evening, however, any heavier showers may result in mvfr
visibilities. showers clear by 03-06z and overnight, expect
intermittent clouds and lighter southwest winds. tomorrow, winds
ramp up by late morning (15-16z) to be sustained around 10 kts.
clouds increase by the afternoon ahead of another wave of
showers that should stay confined to along and south of us 30.
have added prevailing mvfr ceilings at kfwa tomorrow afternoon
and a prob30 at ksbn after 18z to account for this.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1156 pm edt thu may 7 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures recover into the 60s tomorrow with mostly dry
conditions.

- warmer saturday with showers and thunderstorms increasingly likely
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.aviation...

clearing conditions during the early morning period as a drier and
more stable environment takes hold behind a departing upper level
wave. a period of clear skies will then prevail into early afternoon
friday as weak surface ridging moves through. another weak wave
traversing the ohio valley will bring additional thicker high based
cloud for the mid afternoon to evening hours. winds prevailing from
the west-southwest through the day.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt thu may 7 2026

discussion...

cool canadian troughing/cyclonic flow over the region through the
afternoon has maintained the cooler temperatures today that have held
in the 50s. though, the coldest air has held well to the north
towards hudson bay with the parent low. the troughing is carrying an
embedded wave over michigan and a boost in lapse rates that has
brought a healthy diurnal cumulus field. it will also be supporting
isolated shower activity as the main shortwave features tracks
overhead. the better activity will be towards the evening and early
part of the night and focused across lower michigan. deep mixed layer
today will continue to support a few brief gusts to around 25-30 mph
before increasing stability this evening brings an end to these
gusts.

for tonight, temps cool down towards the mid-upper 30s on average.
cooler spots across midland and bay county may creep closer towards
the lower 30s if better duration of clearing occurs. this area would
be the more favorable spot for any frost headlines. as it stands, it
looks like it would only be for northern portions of the each county
and there still may enough of a dewpoint spread to prevent much
frost formation. thus, will hold off on any frost headlines up
against our neighbor offices.

sustained troughing through the plains and midwest will promote some
moderation to the airmass tomorrow as lower level south to southwest
flow develops. temperatures at 850mb will climb above 0c for
tomorrow afternoon and lead to a bump in daytime highs into the 60s
for most of the area. a trailing weak shortwave will promote a weak
surface reflection that will push a plume of better theta-e towards
lower michigan. will again see low end pops along the southern border
as system moves across in/oh while most of the area remains dry
tomorrow.

a stronger shortwave diving out of central canada wild drive a cold
front through michigan on saturday resulting in likely rainfall with
a chance of thunderstorms for the afternoon. meager instability
ahead of this front with only a few hundred j/kg of mlcape and
mucape available building in ahead of the front will preclude
mention of any severe weather. it looks like temperatures will be
able to reach super 60s in spots to maybe 70 degrees across the metro
before colder air behind the front arrives. post frontal
northwesterly wind and a cooler/drier airmass will take over for
sunday. long range models depict a pacnw wave driving through the
north end of the southwest us ridge arriving locally tuesday leading
to the next better chance at a rain and possible thunderstorms.

marine...

high pressure at the surface will result in a weak pressure gradient
and thus light winds through friday. mid levels remain active though
with broad troughing over the region directing a series of weak
systems aloft across the area. first one comes this evening and will
result in mainly cloud cover with a few light showers possible.
stronger system will pull a cold front through on saturday bringing
increased winds up to around 25 knots and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......drk


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