Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
486
fxus61 kcle 130754
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
254 am est tue jan 13 2026

.what has changed...
there will be a focused window of 0.5-1.5" of snow on wednesday
afternoon and evening with a cold frontal passage. any
meaningful snow behind the front for wednesday night into
thursday will be lake effect for the ne oh and nw pa snow belt
and there remains potential for winter weather advisories. the
weekend system into next week continues to trend slightly colder
with several nights of below zero wind chills.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and breezy conditions are expected
today with some rain showers possible in ne oh and nw pa.

2) rain early wednesday will abruptly transition to snow by
early afternoon, allowing for a potentially messy wednesday
evening commute.

3) temperatures in the teens with below zero wind chills
wednesday night into thursday will pose a minor cold exposure
risk. this cold air mass will also support lake effect snow in
ne oh and nw pa, and hazardous winter travel conditions are
possible through thursday.

4) colder air with below zero wind chills is becoming
increasingly likely this weekend into early next week and more
light snow accumulations are possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will enter the region today and reach lake erie. in
the warm sector of this front, temperatures will reach the 40s.
the warm advection regime will allow for some portion of the 40
to 50 kt low level jet to mix to the surface, and southwest
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected this afternoon. a system
passing to the north could allow for some showers along and
north of the warm front this afternoon and evening. any rain
would be limited to near and over lake erie into far ne oh and
nw pa.

key message 2...
a wave of an upper trough will quickly move south from the
northwest territories of canada this morning to the western
great lakes by wednesday morning. this wave will consolidate
into a potent upper trough that will then turn into a closed
upper low by wednesday evening. this feature will support a cold
front across the forecast area on wednesday afternoon, allowing
for rain to quickly change to snow in rapidly falling
temperatures. there are still concerns about a messy commute on
wednesday evening with the combination of the sudden change to
snow with the potential for half inch to one inch snowfall
rates, temperatures plunging from the upper 30s/lower 40s to
upper 20s, and surface/pavement temperatures likely starting
above freezing to quickly falling below freezing. these factors
could allow for hazardous travel conditions across the region.
overall, the snow totals will be a modest 0.5-1.5" across the
area but it may fall in an hour or two, which may be the main
problem. depending on the evolution, it is not hard to see
special weather statements or snow squall warnings be issued.
conditions for snow outside the snow belt will be limited to
just this frontal passage timing, as northwest flow will be
quick to enter the region.

key message 3...
behind the main front on wednesday, the main upper level pattern
stalls out over the area for about 24 hours with a closed upper
low swirling over the lake ontario region. this will allow for
cold, northwest flow to pour into the region and low
temperatures will drop into the teens with some potential for
single digits on wednesday night/thursday morning. winds in the
region will still be elevated with northwest wind gusts of 20 to
30 mph. this would result in wind chills for the thursday
morning commute to be in the -5 to 5 f range, allowing for minor
cold exposure impacts, but a cold weather advisory looks
unlikely at this time.

this cold air mass will also support lake enhanced snow into the
region through thursday, as -18 to -20 c 850 mb temperatures
settle over lake erie by daybreak on thursday. while the lake
induced instability should be good, even with the lake in the
30s, there are concerns about residual moisture in the region to
allow for efficient lake effect snow. it may take upstream lake
connections to lake huron and other lakes to allow for better
snow growth and snow accumulations. therefore, will have a
forecast of generally 2 to 4 inches for the ne oh and nw pa snow
belt from the cold front on wednesday through the lake effect on
thursday. some higher totals are likely in nw pa, as this will
be where the lake huron connection would favor with the
northwest flow. a winter weather advisory may be needed for
wednesday into thursday for at least portions of the snow belt.

key message 4...
for the weekend into next week, another system with cold origins
over northern canada will dive into the great lakes region as a
strong upper trough. this will support a low pressure system
through the area that will bring some light snow accumulations
on saturday and could flare up some lake effect across all
lakes. the most important part of this system appears to be the
even colder air that will settle in. high temperatures will fall
into the teens or lower 20s starting on sunday and low
temperatures will be in the single digits as early as saturday
night. synoptic winds will remain with 10 to 20 mph of flow and
wind chills overnight will start near zero on saturday night and
trend to below zero for the monday and tuesday morning commutes.
there are signals that this colder air mass may trend colder and
that could prompt cold weather advisories next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with mainly vfr to
persist through the taf period. light rain showers are possible
at eri tuesday afternoon, though no vsby impacts are expected.
mvfr ceilings will begin to arrive from the north by the end of
the taf period.

otherwise, the main concern will be the potential for gusty
south to southwest winds today. winds will increase to 15 to 22
knots, with periodic gusts of 30 to 35 knots likely late
this morning and afternoon. a brief window for marginal llws is
possible into early this morning as west to southwest 925 mb
winds of 35 to 40 knots arrive across the area, though opted
against inclusion. stronger 925 mb southwest winds of 45 knots
will arrive late tuesday morning and afternoon, though elevated
surface winds greater than 15 knots preclude llws mention.

outlook...non-vfr expected in rain late tuesday night into
wednesday. non-vfr will continue into thursday as rain
transitions to snow showers late wednesday, most numerous east
of the i-71 corridor. non-vfr may return in snow showers on
friday, and again on saturday.

&&

.marine...
south-southwest winds will increase to 20-25 knots this morning
as a warm front lifts north across the area. although waves
along the lakeshore will remain 3 feet or less, given the gusty
winds expected, a small craft advisory has been issued for all
nearshore zones. tonight, a cold front pushes east before a
secondary cold front pushes east on wednesday. winds will
gradually back to become northwesterly at 20-25 knots behind the
front. this shift to onshore flow will allow waves to build to
4-6 feet, possible approaching 8 feet in the central basin.
there is a possibility of a brief lull in hazardous marine
conditions early wednesday morning as winds gradually shift,
however given the very short duration opted to have the small
craft advisory extend all the way to thursday afternoon. the
exception is the western basin where there should be a more
notable lull in winds tonight into wednesday morning. conditions
should gradually improve on lake erie on thursday as a ridge
builds in, but this will be short lived as another potent low
impacts the region friday. big takeaway with all of this is that
hazardous marine conditions are expected across lake erie for
much of this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez142>144.
small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 1 pm est
thursday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...kahn
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
324
fxus63 kiwx 130536
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1236 am est tue jan 13 2026

.key messages...
- breezy with slight chances (20-30%) for light rain tuesday
afternoon and evening. highs will be in the mid to upper 40s.
rain may mix with snow late tuesday night north of us 24 as
temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

- lake effect snow will develop wednesday and persist into
thursday for north-northwest wind favored snowbelts. it`s
possible that locations in southern berrien, la porte, and
starke counties see greater than 6 inches of accumulation by
thursday pm.

- the wednesday pm and thursday am commutes are most likely to
be impacted by the lake effect snow. northwest winds gusting
up to 35 mph may also create blowing and drifting snow.

- colder with another chance for accumulating snow area-wide friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 312 pm est mon jan 12 2026

high pressure centered over the mid mississippi river valley is
providing dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and even some
sunshine today across our forecast area! enjoy it while it lasts
because an active weather pattern is ahead this week with chances
for rain and also several opportunties for accumulating snow.

a deepening low pressure system will traverse through the upper
great lakes region midweek. by tuesday afternoon, waa will boost
temperatures into the mid 40s. within the warm sector of this
system, any precipitation that falls tuesday afternoon will be rain.
as we will be on the periphery of this system tracking north of the
great lakes, rainfall is expected to be light. tuesday night, a cold
front sweeping through will drop temperatures into the upper 30s.
wedneday`s high temperature will be reached before daybreak as a
secondary stronger cold front moves through; temperatures will fall
throughout wednesday in the wake of the front.

confidence is increasing for an impactful lake effect snow event to
develop for northwest indiana and potentially far southwest lower
michigan during the day wednesday through at least thursday morning.
in the wake of the cold front wednesday morning, temperatures will
fall to at or just below freezing. caa and strong low level
convergent north/northwesterly winds will allow for a single
dominant lake effect snow band to develop downwind of lake michigan
around daybreak wednesday. winds may initially start out northwest
before becoming north-northwest or possibly due north. with this in
mind, the lake effect snow band will likely extend pretty far inland
due to the elongated fetch over lake michigan. wouldn`t be
surprised either if a lake superior to lake michigan connection
develops. delta t`s will be as high as 17-18c with cold air
moving over the still relatively mild and unfrozen lake michigan
(water temps between 1-3c). in addition, parameters appear
favorable for periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow
within the single band. forecast soundings at benton harbor and
michigan city depict increasing lift and saturation within the
dgz, especially wednesday afternoon and evening. inversion
heights rise during the day wednesday to around 8000 ft. a
potent upper level trough pivoting through wednesday night will
help to increase instability and large- scale ascent, and may
also help to intensify snow rates. at times, snowfall rates
could be over 1" per hour. this kind of setup with an elongated
northerly fetch and possible lake superior connection favors the
bullseye of lake effect snow amounts to be in northwest
indiana. overall, snow amounts of at least 6" appear likely
for southern berrien, la porte, and starke counties in
northwest indiana. portions of surrounding counties to the south
and east are in the 4-6" range. i did consider issuing a winter
storm watch with this forecast package; la porte county will
definitely need one, it is just a question of which surrounding
counties need one too. decided to hold off on this shift due to
uncertainty on exact band placement and how far the inland
extent may be. it is also going to be windy on the backside of
the deepening low pressure system, with northwest winds gusting
as high as 30 to 35 mph on wednesday. this will not only further
reduce visibilities within any strong lake effect bands but
also will allow for blowing and drifting snow. the wednesday
evening and thursday morning commutes will likely be impacted.
depending on how long it takes for lake effect snow to taper
off, the thursday evening commute may also be slick and slow-
going.

colder air follows for the end of the week into the weekend with yet
another system on the horizon. in quick succession with the midweek
system, yet another area of low pressure tracks through the great
lakes region. with colder air in place, a combo of accumulating
system and lake effect snow is possible area-wide on friday and
saturday. it will be windy again, which will drop wind chills below
zero at times (especially at night). colder air continues into early
next week with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1235 am est tue jan 13 2026

waa aloft increases later this morning ahead of the next trough.
some brief/marginal llws is possible at ksbn before mixing out
but suspect kfwa will mix out before the strongest portion of
the llj moves overhead. very dry low levels will maintain vfr
conditions through most of the day. however, the initial cold
front passes tue evening and will bring stratus back to the
area. stratus will initially hold mvfr but some ifr ceilings are
possible by early wed morning, especially at ksbn. some light
rain or snow is also possible after 06z tue night but will
likely hold off until after 12z wed morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am early this morning to 7 pm est
this evening for lmz043-046.
gale watch from wednesday morning through late wednesday night
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
026
fxus63 kdtx 130857
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
357 am est tue jan 13 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and mild today with a slight chance of wintry mix in the
morning followed by scattered light rain showers.

- snow showers wednesday and wednesday night as arctic air moves into
the region. accumulations between a dusting and 1 inch for most
locations, with 3 to 4 inches possible along the lake huron
shoreline of huron county.

- much colder late this week and into next weekend. thursday and
friday morning wind chill around zero degrees.

- periodic chances for snow will exist friday through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

firm southwest low level gradient evident immediately downstream of
an inbound clipper system will remain the catalyst for ongoing warm
air advection this morning. the inbound thermal ridge /+4c 850 mb
temps/ will mark the warmest conditions noted this entire forecast
period, effectively leading to a daylight peak in temperatures of
around 40 degrees many locations. narrow wing of heightened moist
isentropic ascent flanking an initial weak period of height falls
will maintain a chance of light precipitation production today.
marginal wet bulb temps may initially afford a few melting
snowflakes with any activity across the north this morning, but
otherwise ptype remains rain with a higher probability existing with
northward extent. shallow mixed layer within this environment, but
sufficient to engage the elevated wind field just off the surface
and support some gustiness into the 30 to 35 mph range. some spotty
shower activity plausible early tonight, as moisture depth improves
within an initial period of weak cold air advection tied the
eastward ejecting clipper.

focus shifts to the inbound arctic front set to track across the
area between 09z and 15z wednesday morning. increasing snow shower
potential from north to south during this time, with a peak in
forcing along the advancing convergence axis drawing upon steepening
lapse rates and supportive moisture depth. secondary window for snow
shower development wednesday afternoon tied to the southward
ejecting mid level circulation. moisture quality lacks overall given
the arctic origin, but favorable microphysics will exist for a time
as the moist layer takes residence at a deeper layer within the dgz
and the magnitude of the advective process removes stability
concerns. forecast maintains general accumulation potential from a
dusting to around an inch most locations through the afternoon.
steady column drying as the arctic plume takes greater influence
will favor drier conditions by evening. eastern thumb the exception,
as cold north-northwest flow over the long lake huron fetch elicits
a lake response with a concerted focus along the lake aggregate
trough. the overall scale, vigor and longevity of activity carries
greater uncertainty owing to sensitivity to proper projection of
wind trajectory and influence of the drying arctic profile with
time. eastern huron county most susceptible to persistent,
potentially higher intensity lake bands, yielding a smaller
footprint of variable accumulation amounts perhaps in excess of 3
inches near the shoreline by early thursday morning. the downward
spiral in temperatures means sub-zero wind chill most locations by
thursday morning.

arctic cold with dry conditions in deep northwest flow thursday.
temperatures briefly moderate friday as the first in series of
clipper systems lifts through the region. combination of warm air
advection and dcva with the passing wave brings a high likelihood of
snow with some accumulation throughout the friday period. trailing
shortwave energy will work to carve out a broader mid level trough
for the upcoming weekend. this pattern will remain conducive to
periodic snowfall chances. another intrusion of arctic air fortifies
a longer stretch of well below average temperatures lasting into
early next week.

&&

.marine...

south-southwesterly gradient winds increase again today with the
approach of the next low pressure system into ontario. a new set of
small craft advisories were issued though the evening hours. 35-50
knot flow moves into the lowest 3 kft, but gusts should be held in-
check by marginally sufficient lower column stability. still, cannot
rule out a few isolated gale-force gusts this afternoon, mainly over
the southern half of lake huron. the low ejects into quebec by
wednesday morning which forces a rather potent cold front across the
central great lakes. potential exists for brief marginal post-
frontal gales on wednesday with the ensuing cold advection, but
since the low-level wind field should be weakened and displaced
further south, no gale watch was issued. extensions and/or
additional small craft advisories will likely be required wednesday.
winds speeds steadily decrease thursday with a passing surface ridge
axis, then flip southerly by friday ahead of the next clipper
system.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1156 pm est mon jan 12 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions through tonight as a weak ridge passes across the
area in advance of the next system. increasing mid/high cloud into
the early morning as moisture ahead of a warm front sheds into the
region. the warm front will develop over the area on its way
northeast this afternoon. this will bring lowering of the clouds but
mainly still vfr. still mainly less than a 20% chance of some light
rain of drizzle to result from the frontal passage, but farther
north, closer to the low, the forcing is stronger and there may be a
brief 3 hour window where mbs could see some precip so added a
prob30 for them. the rest of the area looks to remain void of precip
as the wealth of dry air in the lower levels will make anything more
than virga hard to come by. winds will become gusty once again in
the afternoon with gusts to 25 to 30 knots. chance for mvfr cigs
increases in the evening as the cold front approaches. scattered
snow showers are expected in the wake of the front which is outside
the taf window for all but dtw at this time. due to low confidence
in coverage prior to 12z, will hold off on including in the dtw taf
at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet through tuesday, medium for tuesday
night.

* high for precipitation type of snow after 06z wednesday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lhz442-443.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am est wednesday
for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......kgk
aviation.....drk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.