Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1130 pm est sun jan 25 2026

.what has changed...
synoptic snow has largely exited our region. thus, the winter
storm warning was cancelled at 10 pm for most of our cwa.
however, kept the warning in effect until 10 am monday for our
ne oh snowbelt counties and until 1 pm monday for our nw pa
snowbelt counties. despite extensive ice cover on lake erie,
light lake-effect snow (les) is streaming generally s`ward from
the central basin late this evening. expect additional les to
stream from central and eventually eastern portions of the lake
through at least midday monday as 850 mb temperatures cool from
near -15c to -18c, low-level moisture remains abundant/deep on
the synoptic scale, and an upstream moisture connection to lake
huron persists as mean low-level flow backs from n`erly to
nw`erly. our official forecast calls for 2" or less of fresh
snow accumulation from the les through about midday monday.
however, if openings in the lake ice cover are greater than
analyzed by the u.s. national ice center, then les accumulations
could be greater than our forecast given the aforementioned
favorable atmospheric thermodynamics. will let the overnight
shift reevaluate the situation.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread snow will continue this afternoon and evening before
tapering off tonight. lake enhanced snow showers are expected to
linger in northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania monday
with additional light snow accumulation expected.

2) an extreme cold watch has been issued for wind chill values near -
15f and below -20f for some locations on tuesday as arctic air is
ushered in with high pressure.

3) prolonged cold with occasional light snow is expected through the
end of next week creating elevated risks for cold exposure and
damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
widespread snow accumulation will continue through the evening
before tapering off tonight. a low pressure system, currently
located over the tennessee valley will track northeastward up the
appalachians this evening and off the east coast by tonight.
overrunning precipitation due to broad moisture advection and
isentropic ascent driving the snowfall will persist until the low
moves off to the east of the region. additional snow accumulations
across the region will range from 3 to 5 inches for areas west of i-
71 and around 5 to 8 to the east with the higher amounts in far
eastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. winds will also be a
factor this evening as gusts of around 20mph are possible with winds
shifting to be out of the northwest and cold air advection moves in.
as mentioned, the snow will begin to taper off from west to east
this evening as the low pushes off the east coast.

on the back end of the low pressure system, there will be some
lingering moisture that will generate some lake enhanced showers
across northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. though, with
most of the moisture off to the east, additional accumulations will
be limited. other limiting factors will be that lake erie being
almost completely ice covered and there will decent low level shear
in place over the region through mid-morning monday. with the ice
coverage, there may be some breaks with the shifting winds that
could allow for areas of stronger lake enhanced showers. regardless,
an additional 1 to 2 inches are expected across the snowbelt with
locally higher amounts near 3 inches. snow showers will end as high
pressure builds in just south of the region and flow backs to be
more southwesterly monday night.

key message 2...
a large upper level trough will be in place across eastern canada
reaching down into eastern conus that provide support for an arctic
surface high pressure to move south along its western periphery.
this will bring much colder air to most locations east of the
rockies to include the great lakes region. combined with an ice
covered lake erie, northwesterly winds moving across the lake, and a
fresh snow pack across the region, overnight temperatures will drop
to below zero for much of the region starting on monday night.
temperatures have continued to trend down for monday night/tuesday
morning in particular and accompanied with southwest winds gusting
15 to 25mph and clearing skies, wind chills will be down to -15f to
below -20f for some locations. a extreme cold watch has been issued
for that time frame as there will be impacts with prolonged
exposure.

key message 3...
the previously mentioned upper level trough will be stubborned to
depart and will be in place over the region through the end of the
week. this will ensure that temperatures will continue to be well
below average with daytime highs barely reaching into the mid-teens.
overnight lows will be down in the low single digits and below zero
for some locations as well. wind chills as well will be between -10f
and -20f periodically throughout the week, with the coldest times
during the overnight and morning hours. this prolonged cold stretch
will have elevated risks for cold exposure and infrastructure damage
across the region. take precautions and limit time outdoors if
possible. throughout the week, there will be frequent shortwave
system moving across the region that will reinforce the cold air
mass and provide occasional light snow fall across the region with
periods of possible lake effect snow showers. further details on
these systems will come closer to the event.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
at the surface, a ridge builds from the north-central united
states through 06z/tues. our regional surface winds will back
from ne`erly to sw`erly through the taf period and remain around
5 to 15 knots in magnitude. gusts up to 20 knots are possible,
especially between ~15z/mon and ~23z/mon. scattered to
widespread low clouds are expected through ~23z/mon and will
have bases primarily in the range of 800 ft to 3.5kft agl. after
~23z/mon, sky should clear considerably across most of our
region. however, scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli
with bases near 3kft agl should stream generally e`ward across
far-ne oh and nw pa through ~04z/tues and then shift offshore by
06z/tues as mean low-level flow backs from w`erly toward
sw`erly.

mainly dry weather and vfr visibility are expected through the
taf period. however, light lake-effect snow (les) downwind of
mainly ice-covered lake erie should impact ne oh and nw pa
through ~04z/tues as mean low-level flow backs from n`erly
toward sw`erly. after ~04z/tues, lingering les should become
located offshore our region. visibility should vary between vfr
and mvfr in the les.

outlook...additional periods of snow with non-vfr are possible
overnight monday night through friday. greatest chances exist
in ne oh and nw pa, where periodic lake-effect snow downwind of
mainly ice-covered lake erie should occur.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds gradually shift north and northwest at 10-20 knots
through tonight. winds gradually shift west monday and southwest
monday night, increasing to 20-30 knots monday night and tuesday
ahead of the next cold front. this cold front crosses tuesday
afternoon, shifting winds more west at 15-25 knots tuesday night.
winds shift southwest wednesday into wednesday night at 15-20kt
ahead of the next cold front, which crosses early thursday and
shifts winds more westerly at 15-20kt.

ice will continue to thicken through next weekend as several bouts
of cold air impact the region. stronger southwest winds on tuesday
may break up and shift the ice northeastward away from the
southwestern shoreline of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme cold watch from monday evening through tuesday
afternoon for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
winter storm warning until 10 am est monday for ohz010>014-
020>023-089.
pa...extreme cold watch from monday evening through tuesday
afternoon for paz001>003.
winter storm warning until 1 pm est monday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/23
aviation...jaszka
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1118 pm est sun jan 25 2026

.key messages...

- periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will create
difficult travel into monday morning, mainly impacting la
porte, st. joseph (in/mi), berrien and cass (mi) counties.

- dangerous wind chills expected tonight through tuesday morning
of 10 below to 20 below. cold weather advisories periodic
dangerous wind chills will continue through much of the work
week.

- additional rounds of lake effect snow showers are expected,
especially tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 350 pm est sun jan 25 2026

no major changes to the forecast this afternoon with the
ongoing winter storm. the main headline changes of note were to
include winter storm warnings for additional lake effect snow
later tonight/monday morning for berrien/laporte counties and
also to move up the expiration of the remaining counties in
winter weather headlines to 03z. cold weather advisories have
also been extended into tuesday morning for all of the forecast
area.

the lead mid level short wave and accompanying mid level speed max
across the ohio valley have shifted east of the area. some mid level
fgen induced bands did lead to some periodic episodes today of
larger flake size and better dendrite production, but expecting
this potential has mainly ended locally. some lagging upper
level 600-500 mb fgen forcing is providing some forcing for
additional short-lived banding, but this elevated forcing is
tending to occur in a layer too cold for optimal snow growth. a
strengthening upper jet streak downstream of next larger scale
upstream upper level trough across the upper midwest will help
continue some large scale forcing for ascent. this next upstream
trough will also allow another modest low/mid level front to
push across the area through early evening. additional light
snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected into early
evening, with perhaps locally higher amounts around 3 inches
where any short lived highly elevated fgen forced bands can
develop across especially southeast portions of the forecast
area in the winter storm warning area.

low level flow trajectories with track of this storm system have
yielded best lake effect/enhancement to snow from chicago metro
area into portions of extreme nw indiana. as the ohio valley
sfc reflection pulls off to the east this evening, low level
flow will back to the north allowing this lake
enhancement/effect to shift east across la porte/berrien/cass
mi/st. joseph in counties late evening into the morning hours
tuesday. inversion heights building to 7-8k feet and strong lift
in low level dgz should provide favorable instability/thermo
environment for lake effect snow showers. expected land breeze
development and development of a northerly fetch should promote
dominant single band development across porter county this
evening, with band expected to be somewhat progressive across
laporte into southwest berrien late evening/overnight. lake
aggregate trough should tend to slow and anchor this band across
favored nw flow lake effect areas for monday morning, although
low level convergence should tend to wane a little after
daybreak following diurnal tendencies. this lake effect setup
should also be aided by some synoptic enhancement with the
approach of the next larger scale upper trough. href
probabilities continue to indicate higher probs for periods of
1"+/hour snowfall rates across laporte/berrien during this time.
given recent snowfall of 2 to 5 inches across these areas and a
potential of 2 to 6 inches with additional lake effect snow
showers tonight/early monday, did go ahead and transition
berrien/la porte counties to a warning with impacts to the
monday morning commute likely. have maintained the advisory
across st. joseph in/cass mi/st. joseph mi where confidence in
amounts is lower due to higher likelihood of less organization
and transition to multiband setup during the day monday. a time
extension past 15z is also possible monday depending on how lake
effect evolves overnight, but confidence is high in monday
morning commute impacts.

otherwise, a cold weather advisory has been maintained for
western/southeast locations as core of low level thermal trough
drops across the western great lakes bringing wind chills of 10
below to 20 below across the advisory area. the cold weather
advisory has been expanded area-wide for monday evening through
tuesday morning.

the progressive pattern continues on tuesday with a brief shot of
"warm" advection early tuesday preceding the next northwest
flow digging trough and accompanying reinforcing cold front.
one item which may need monitoring for late monday night into
tuesday is some impacts from strong pre-frontal and post-
frontal winds on the existing dry, fluffy snowpack. some patchy
blowing and drifting snow is likely, especially across open and
rural areas. lake effect snow shower potential will increase
again early tuesday with the renewed cold advection push. lake
induced instability depths are not as deep as that of tonight
with fetch a little more west-northwest in nature, but some
impacts are possible early tuesday, especially during the period
of peak synoptic enhancement.

little change made to previous forecast post-wednesday with a
continuation of current synoptic pattern of frequent additional
reinforcing arctic intrusions keeping temperatures below normal
through the period along with some favored periods for more lake
effect snow showers.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1127 pm est sun jan 25 2026

a band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will likely pivot
into ksbn this morning with highly variable flight conditions
generally ranging between lifr and mvfr. this band should weaken
by late this morning and afternoon with less impacts. a few
flurries and/or light snow showers will be possible at kfwa,
with the best chance for cig/vis restrictions mid morning into
the early afternoon here. westerly winds pick up a bit
otherwise at both terminals this afternoon with gusts to 20
knots possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from 6 pm monday to 10 am est tuesday
for inz005>009-104-204.
cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ tuesday for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-116-203-216.
winter storm warning until 9 am cst monday for inz103-203.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est monday for inz104-204.
oh...cold weather advisory from 6 pm monday to 10 am est tuesday
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory from 6 pm monday to 10 am est tuesday
for miz078>081-177-277.
winter storm warning until 10 am est monday for miz177-277.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est monday for miz078-079.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1159 pm est sun jan 25 2026

.key messages...

- a winter weather advisory remains in effect across parts of the
northern thumb region.

- frigid conditions monday through friday with wind chills
occasionally reaching 15 below zero or colder. a cold weather advisory
has been issued for monday evening through tuesday morning for the
first episode of dangerous cold wind chills.

- snow showers around on tuesday are expected to produce a dusting
to 2 inches of accumulation, with a low chance for isolated snow
squalls.

- another round of light snow showers are possible on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

north to northwest winds have ushered in lake moisture bringing a
mix of low vfr to mvfr ceilings and visibility with isolated/scattered
light snowfall/flurries. heaviest snowfall with the lake effect
plume should be east and north of terminals across the thumb. this
initial push of light lake effect showers/flurries with associated
mvfr conditions should last through about 09z. a period of borderline
mvfr ceilings with low confidence in timing of light snow/flurries
develops after 09z and through the mid morning hours. winds continue
to veer northwest and eventually to the west by monday evening. this
will flow will continue to offer lake effect clouds and snow showers
with a better chance for snow showers during the afternoon. ceilings
continue to hover around mvfr with any snow showers in the afternoon
producing mvfr visibility.

for dtw...best chance through the early morning hours for a dusting
to maybe a tenth or two of snow accumulation from lake effect showers
will be through about 09z. better chance for possible minor
accumulations will be monday afternoon as snow showers/flurries
develop off lake michigan.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through the morning
hours, high by monday afternoon.

* high in precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 304 pm est sun jan 25 2026

discussion...

right entrance forcing associated with the strong upper level jet
core (180+ knots) over eastern canada is gradually exiting east, and
snow will continue to wane this evening. small flake size and
poor snow to liquid ratios lead to snowfall on the lower end of the
range, as additional accumulations in the early evening look to be
an inch or less (outside of thumb), and the winter weather
advisory/warning along and south of m-59 will likely be ended early.
low level winds backing more north-northwest this evening will allow
for some drier air to work back into most of southeast michigan.
however, do not anticipated many breaks in the clouds, which should
hold temps in the single numbers.

meanwhile, for the northern thumb winter weather advisory.
inverted/lake huron enhanced surface trough over the open waters of
lake huron is progged to sweep southward and impact the northern
thumb region late tonight, per rap/hrrr/arw. soundings at bad axe and
port hope do indicate a significant deep layer (~5 kft) of
supersaturation with respect to ice in the dgz this evening/tonight.
however, the low level lapse rates are not steep enough to generate
cape, or very little. will highlight additional 1-3 inches of
accumulation for huron/saginaw counties. with today`s
snowfall, potentially pushing isolated locations to near 6 inches.
strong support amongst the hi-res models with low level winds
backing sufficiently northwest by 15z monday to push any band(s)
offshore, and the end time of the advisory looks good.

frigid conditions for the upcoming work week. westerly flow and
cold advection on monday, as 850 mb temps lower into the 19 to -22 c
range. diurnal instability/steepening low level lapse rates and
moisture from lake michigan will likely be able to support scattered
flurries/light snow shower development, particularly in the middle
tier of counties of the cwa. as the boundary layer grows during the
day, super-saturation with respect to ice gets into the -20 c layer,
above the dgz. thus, would expect any accumulations to be less
than half an inch. better chance for light accumulations on tuesday
with the the next clipper system/re-enforcing shot of cold air (850
mb temps of -21 to -23 c) arriving on tuesday. snow showers
associated with the arctic front brings the potential of 1-2 inches
of snow accumulation as lift reside in dgz, with a low potential for
some embedded snow squalls, as wind gusts reach 30-35 mph. the
stronger winds ahead and behind the arctic front will set the stage
for wind chills reaching -15 f or colder, beginning monday night, as
mins dip into the -5 to +5 range. euro ensemble members are
convincing for mins temps at or below zero monday night for the
southern half of the cwa, and will go ahead and issued the first
cold weather advisory of the upcoming week. will leave out midland,
as southwest flow keeps them a bit warmer under the influence of
lake michigan plume.

min temps again in the -5 to + 5 range tuesday night with sustained
winds 10 to 15 mph brings another round of wind chills around -15 f.

and finally, another shortwave and even colder shot is progged to
arrive wednesday night, per 12z euro. min temperatures in the zero
to -10 f appear likely for thursday and friday morning. although
winds will be light, wind chills still likely flirt with -15 f.
early indications indicate a slow moderating trend for the weekend.

marine...

light snow continues across the southern great lakes as an expansive
low pressure system progresses through the appalachia region.
departure of this system will reinforce arctic air across the great
lakes tomorrow and through the midweek period. this will again boost
overlake instability, promoting a steep mixing layer that will bring
breezy conditions for the next several days. wind gusts ranging 20
to 30 knots will be likely through this period, with some of these
higher end gusts entering tuesday morning ahead of a clipper system.
lake effect snow banding will be likely across the southern lake
huron basin tonight into tomorrow morning, with widespread light
snow possible with the aforementioned clipper system.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory from 7 pm monday to 10 am est tuesday for
miz048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

winter weather advisory until 10 am est monday for miz049-055.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.