Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 040635
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
235 am edt tue aug 4 2026

.what has changed...
there were no impactful changes made to the forecast this
morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions continue today before a series of low pressure
systems mark the return of showers and thunderstorms chances
wednesday afternoon through late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will linger into wednesday, keeping dry conditions
and plenty of sunshine across the area. as this high pressure
drifts east midweek, a weak low pressure system centered near
the gulf coast will move north into the ohio valley. this system
will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the eastern
portion of the cwa wednesday afternoon into the evening. given
the positioning of the low and the higher pwat axis further
east, there remains a decent chance that the bulk of the area
remains dry. given the overall weak forcing with this system,
not anticipating any severe weather at this point.

late wednesday into thursday, a broad upper level trough and
associated frontal boundary will approach the area from the
west. this frontal boundary will be slow moving and potentially
stall near the area until pushing east on friday. as a result,
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
thursday and friday. the confidence in any severe threat is low
at this point given the discrepancies in timing amongst models,
but increasing dew points and daytime instability keep that
potential around for the end of the week. in addition, will need
to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall as mean flow
is expected to be near parallel to the frontal boundary which
could result in periods of training showers. given the expected
pwat values and deep warm cloud layer, can also expect any
storms that develop to be associated with efficient rainfall
rates. wpc has highlighted the entire area in a marginal ero for
thursday into friday. the chance of showers will linger into the
weekend as additional disturbances push across the area,
although full spatial extent and timing remains uncertain.

through the weekend, temperatures will remain near normal for
this time of year with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s
and overnight lows cooling into the 60s.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
high pressure over the region will maintain light wind
conditions with lake/land breeze circulations. main concern will
be any mvfr visibilities that develop in the 09-12z window due
to radiation fog. this seems most likely at yng and could even
briefly see visibilities drop to ifr, while also included a
tempo at cak/fdy/tol. land breezes should prevent fog formation
at cle and eri but can expect a lake breeze towards 16z at eri
and 18z at cle. otherwise, skies will be mostly clear through
the period.

outlook...periods of showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
conditions will develop across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania wednesday afternoon and evening. showers, and
occasional storms, will become more widespread across the region
thursday, and continue into the weekend.

&&

.marine...
generally light wind conditions expected this week with speeds
of 15 knots or less. high pressure overhead today with result in
a lake breeze with north to northeast winds. as the high shifts
east on wednesday, lake breezes can be expected from about
lorain eastward. thunderstorm chances return thursday into the
weekend and could result in erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 040543
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
143 am edt tue aug 4 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions into wednesday. expect partly to mostly clear
skies and light winds. highs will range from 77 to 86 degrees,
warmest wednesday.

- chances for showers and storms return wednesday night and
persist into the weekend. the best potential (~30-60 percent)
will be wednesday night into thursday, then periods of
showers with generally lower chances (~20 to 40 percent)
through the weekend. highs will be in the 80s thursday into
the weekend, warmest sunday.

- warmer and more humid airmass moves into the region early next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 118 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

upper level ridge axis sitting right over the region and then
goes back southwestward into the four corners region. this will
keep mostly clear skies across the area through wednesday
morning. pretty seasonable temperatures will also continue
across the area with highs in the upper 70s near lake michigan
and low 80s elsewhere through wednesday.

troughing centered over central canada will begin to push
south and eastward into the upper midwest and then into the
great lakes and will increase chances for showers/thunderstorms
for mainly the northwestern parts of the cwa by wednesday
evening and spread southeastward over the rest of the area
by early thursday as a cold front pushes through. the better
chances for precipitation at this time will be on thursday with
generally 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation across the
area. wpc has our cwa under a marginal chance of exceeding flash
flood guidance for wednesday night through thursday with pwats
of around 1.5" to almost 2" and surface dew points in the 70s along
and ahead of the frontal boundary. so will need to watch
carefully on how this develops over the next few days. a more
cyclonic flow to zonal flow then remains over the area well into
the weekend. this will bring the potential for periods of
showers/thunderstorms especially during the afternoon/early
evening periods.

ridging then develops over the southeast conus by monday and
builds northward into our area. this will bring warmer and more
humid conditions across the region next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 129 am edt tue aug 4 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals. some ground
fog/br is possible at kfwa between 9-13z, but confidence is not
high enough to include at this point. will amend if br/fg
development shows up in area observations.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 040753
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
353 am edt tue aug 4 2026

.key messages...

- another sunny and warm day is in store for se mi today.

- the next chance of showers and thunderstorms is on schedule for
wednesday afternoon, mainly in the tri cities area.

- showers and thunderstorms expand across the rest of se mi wednesday
night and thursday. severe intensity is not expected.

- the weekend starts out with dry weather by friday afternoon into
saturday, followed by a chance of showers again by sunday.

&&

.discussion...

another pleasant day is in store for se mi as high pressure
maintains primary influence while drifting into upstate ny by this
evening. temperatures respond to the core of cooler and less humid
air exiting eastward along with the surface high. full sun and wind
returning sw over the region are able to lift readings into the mid
80s, especially in the tri cities area. the warmer temperatures
occur with typical mid summer humidity as surface td creeps up to
around 60 f most areas by this evening.

after dry and mild conditions tonight, the forecast focus turns to
the broad central canadian low pressure system that is pulling a
cold front slowly into the northern/western great lakes during
wednesday. emphasis is on slowly as model projections show it taking
about 36 hours to move from the west end of lake superior this
morning into central lower mi by wednesday evening. the leading
moisture axis has also been mostly inactive at night due to weak low
level jet forcing as the system approached from the plains sunday
night and into the upper midwest early this morning. that could
change tonight into wednesday morning as upper level jet entrance
region forcing becomes more favorable for larger scale vertical
motion and to support a stronger low to mid level wind field. longer
lasting showers/storms from surface based convection this afternoon
then have a chance to combine with a nocturnal component tonight and
graze the saginaw valley by wednesday afternoon.

the front takes the remainder of wednesday afternoon and night to
make progress into southern lower mi. it does so while a component
of surface based convection develops along and near the boundary as
the broad mid level trough and entrance region of the upper jet
maintain support for larger scale ascent. consensus of 00z regional
and global deterministic models show a generous qpf response to the
favorable larger scale environment focused within the low level
frontal zone that takes all of thursday and much of thursday night
to reach the ohio border. the weak link in the severe storm
parameter space is mainly lower end cape values in an otherwise
respectable sw unidirectional flow. this is in line with the day 3
general thunder outlook with an eye toward a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

the extended range model output gives the front a chance to settle
south of the ohio border by friday morning where it dissipates
during the day. it leaves a tenuous scenario in place for dry
weather friday and saturday while the large closed low remains
anchored over far northern ontario. the system has a chance to
produce another cold front in the great lakes by sunday.

&&

.marine...

high pressure influence lingers across the central great lakes today
as the center of the surface ridge slides across appalachia into the
northeast. winds increase throughout the day, taking on a
southwesterly orientation. this is generated by the return flow
configuration and low pressure moving into hudson bay from northern
ontario. an attendant cold front will move in from the west and
briefly stall out over lake huron wednesday. this provides the first
opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms for the latter half
of the week. several disturbances are expected to ripple through
atop the boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through thursday as
the front resumes forward progress toward the southern waterways.
the pressure gradient response appears rather minor through this
period, ensuring low probabilities for any long-fused headlines
before the end of the week. drier weather may briefly return friday
and/or saturday, but the front will stall out again in the vicinity,
keeping low chances for thunder nearby.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1156 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

aviation...

dry and stable conditions will prevail through tuesday as high
pressure maintains influence across the region. this will support
mainly clear skies outside of a limited coverage of high based
diurnal vfr cu tuesday. light and variable winds exist tonight, then
emerging from the south with a modest wind speed tuesday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through tuesday
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.