Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 231806
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
206 pm edt wed sep 23 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the prior forecast or messaging.

&&

.key messages...
1) lingering showers diminish through this evening.

2) the forecast is dry for the remainder of the long term. the
coolest overnight lows so far this season are expected thursday and
friday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak upper low continues spinning over the northern ohio
valley this afternoon as an inverted surface trough gradually
shifts west across northern ohio. these features continue to
produce scattered showers this afternoon, especially across
north central oh. the upper low will fill and shift to the
southeast tonight into thursday as easterly low-level flow
advects in drier air. this will cause showers to continue
gradually shifting west while diminishing and eventually ending
through this evening. skies are expected to gradually become
more clear from east to west through the night, with fog not
expected due to a bit of an easterly breeze. lows tonight will
range from the 40s across parts of interior northeast
oh/northwest pa to the low to mid 50s across northwest oh and
near the lake erie shoreline.

key message 2...
high pressure will build into the great lakes thursday and
friday, persisting into early next week bringing a prolonged
period of tranquil/dry weather. the next chance for rain appears
to be wednesday of next week. below normal temperatures through
monday will begin rebounding on tuesday as we get into return
flow behind the departing high. locations away from lake erie
will see several nights with lows likely dipping into the 40s
through early next week. the coolest nights will be thursday and
friday nights. it is possible that a few more sheltered valleys
east of i-79 in northwest pa dip into the upper 30s thursday
night, along with perhaps in some isolated spots across
interior northeast ohio and around the central highlands. dew
points look a few degrees too warm to really be concerned about
a widespread or impactful frost thursday night/early friday so
do not have any included in the forecast at the moment.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
mixed-bag of mvfr and vfr across the taf sites this afternoon,
mainly associated with low ceilings, with gradual improvement to
vfr expected into this evening from east to west. isolated
thunder remains possible over the next several hours, but low
confidence in coverage precludes mention in the tafs. otherwise,
light to steady rain may impact fdy later this afternoon which
could briefly lower vsbys to mvfr.

winds are out of the east to northeast this afternoon, 8 to 12
knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22 knots. winds will
generally remain out of the east to northeast through the taf
period.

outlook...mainly vfr favored through monday.

&&

.marine...
generally east-northeast flow will continue through the weekend.
flow has subsided slightly to 10-20kt for much of today, but may
increase a few knots early this evening. winds will generally
then be in the 10-15kt range (enough to build 2-3 foot waves at
times given the northeasterly fetch) through saturday night, but
may again briefly increase to 15-20kt thursday afternoon and
evening. will give the end times of the current small craft/
beach hazard headlines before sending the full package, though
in general the idea is conditions will fall below criteria this
evening into tonight. waves may briefly increase back towards
headline criteria thursday afternoon/evening between the islands
and willowick. beyond that headlines appear unlikely over the
next several days, though as mentioned above waves will kick up
to 2 to 3 feet at times through the weekend amid onshore flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-007-009.
beach hazards statement until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
ohz010-011.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>148.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 231811
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
211 pm edt wed sep 23 2026

.key messages...

- pockets of drizzle and light rain are possible especially
along and east of interstate 69 through early this evening.
rainfall amounts are only expected to range from a trace to a
few hundredths of an inch.

- seasonable cool conditions continue into the weekend with some moderation
back to temperatures around normal early next week.

- an extended period of dry weather is expected thursday through tuesday,
with next rain chances not until the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 205 pm edt wed sep 23 2026

a stagnant rex block pattern continues across the great lakes and
ohio valley today. water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates
two distinct short waves progressing through this pattern with the
first dropping southeast across far southern indiana/western kentucky
and another vort max drifting westward through the base of the northern
latitude ridge across southern lake michigan/se wisconsin. there appears
to be two distinct mid level height minima with this pattern, with
a tendency of some weak phasing through the afternoon and early
evening hours. this should result in some continued respectable low
level moisture transport from east to west across northern indiana
and northwest ohio through this evening. some subtle increase
in moisture depth paired with resultant 250-500 j/kg of mucape
could give rise to some isolated to scattered showers mainly
along and east of i-69 across ne indiana/nw ohio through this
evening. to this point, much of the precipitation has been in
the form of some patchy drizzle, and this should continue to be
the case this evening for western/central areas as the southern
lake mi vort max begins to shift southward.

by late tonight into thursday am, easterly low level flow should
begin to advect drier air westward to the local area as the
ohio valley negative mid/upper level height anomaly begins to
become more suppressed southward. this should open the door for
some decreasing low clouds across northern half later tonight
into thursday, but uncertainty persists with cloud cover during
the day thursday. guidance would suggest best chance of low
clouds lingering into thursday afternoon would be across western
and southern portions of the forecast area. some low level
thermal modification and likelihood of some decrease in clouds
should allow highs to be 4 to 8 degrees warmer tomorrow, but a
lower than normal confidence exists with temps tomorrow based on
the potential of that lingering low cloud cover.

overall, very few changes are warranted for this forecast package
for friday and beyond with a relatively stable longwave pattern
remaining in place through the weekend. this stable wave pattern
involves preference for a central conus ridge, with primary
negative upper height anomalies across southwest canada and new
england. a couple of upper level short waves are expected to
eject northeast from the pacific nw/southwest canadian upper
trough into the northern plains/upper midwest friday, and then
again late weekend, but persistence of the stable longwave
pattern and background mean upper ridging should result in
little in the way of notable mid/upper level forcing through the
first part of next week as these short waves dampen upstream.
temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
weekend in this stagnant pattern, with an opportunity for cooler
nights in the mid-upper 40s thu night through sat night due to
less cloud cover.

present indications still suggest the stable wave pattern breaks
down tuesday and beyond with more progression in the flow
developing, and the potential of more dynamic eastern pacific waves
reaching the upper midwest/great lakes region. this likely will
represent the next notable chance of showers/embedded storms with a
potential larger scale frontal response possible by next tue or
wed.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 114 pm edt wed sep 23 2026

stratus persists this afternoon, but signs of improvement are
noted both in surface observations and satellite. ceilings have
steadily risen at some stations to high-end mvfr as high
pressure to the north exerts its influence. timing for when this
improvement occurs is low. some degree of bkn to ovc skies
persists overnight, but medium-high confidence in vfr ceilings
owing to favorable model agreement and the aformentioned trends.
with ksbn on the northern fringe of this slow-moving low,
better chance of sct to few late in the taf period while bkn
skies linger at kfwa. drizzle tapers off late this afternoon as
well, with very weak forcing noted overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 231952
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
352 pm edt wed sep 23 2026

.key messages...

- a stray light rain shower from metro detroit southward this
evening.

- moderate easterly wind continues thursday which keeps temperatures
on the cool side of average.

- high pressure settles overhead by friday and brings dry weather and
a gradual warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

se mi remains between a broad area of surface high pressure centered
in eastern canada and tn valley low pressure that has a trough
reaching up into central in/oh. this is making gusty e-ne wind the
weather highlight this afternoon. cool air reinforced by gusts near
30 mph check temperatures in mid to upper 60s, further limited by
the cloud shield reaching up from the ohio valley low. this system is
also grazing the border region with a stray light shower as moisture
gets wrung out around the north flank of the 500 mb circulation. the
low has less influence farther north toward the tri cities and thumb
where full daytime heating is producing generous coverage of shallow
cumulus within the cool high pressure air mass augmented by great
lakes aggregate boundary layer moisture. these clouds fade with
sunset while the in/oh circulation drifts toward the mid appalachians
tonight, just enough to pull the cloud shield south of the mi border
after midnight. gradient wind then remains elevated enough to hold a
temperature trend similar to last night for lows in the mid 40s to
around 50 by sunrise thursday.

slow evolution of the mid level rex block proceeds during the late
week period resulting in the 500 mb ridge component strengthening
over the midwest and great lakes. solid agreement among the 23/12z
deterministic models shows this resulting in surface high pressure
settling more over the great lakes as the potential nor`easter
matures off the new england coast. easterly wind diminishes slightly
during the transition thursday while maintaining an air mass of
similar temperature and cloud character as today. textbook early
fall weather for se mi then becomes more firmly established by
friday with a gradual modification of the cool high pressure air
mass through the weekend. this allows afternoon temperatures to gain
ground back into the lower 70s with dry weather through sunday.

&&

.marine...

a moderate pressure gradient responsible for brisk east to
northeasterly flow will persist through the evening. gusts ranging
between 15 to 25 knots are expected through tonight which will help
maintain more elevated wave action along the shoreline, where small
craft advisories remain in place. high pressure will slowly build in
from quebec and ontario through the end of the week which will relax
wind speeds, leading to a longer period of lighter winds. these
light winds with mostly dry conditions are expected to last through
the weekend as this high pressure system settles across the northern
great lakes.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 115 pm edt wed sep 23 2026

aviation...

steep low level lapse rates this afternoon capped by a deep low
level inversion and moisture flux off the great lakes has supported
a scattered to broken vfr based diurnal cu field this afternoon.
late day dry air advection and loss of diurnal mixing will allow
these clouds to diminish during the late afternoon/evening. the
proximity to an upper level trough and pool of deeper moisture will
sustain a more persistent mid and high level cloud deck across the
metro detroit terminals through the evening. the loss of diurnal
mixing this evening will suppress the gustiness of the easterly
winds. the position of strong high pressure over southern quebec
will sustain a prevailing ene gradient across se mi into thursday,
leading to prevailing light winds through the night.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......am
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.