Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
371
fxus61 kcle 231736
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
136 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the upcoming forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers
across parts of northeast oh and northwest pa into early this
week. locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly this evening.
elsewhere, scattered showers are possible this afternoon and
evening before a prolonged period of drier weather arrives.

2 scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
wednesday night through thursday night. currently, the potential
for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall appears minimal.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface low pressure across southern ontario and an upper-level
trough over the great lakes are expected to become closed off
and more vertically stacked while drifting east through
tonight. the system will begin to gradually weaken starting on
monday while only slowly exiting through southeast canada and
new england. high pressure will gradually build into the ohio
valley and eventually across the local area early this week,
though lingering influence from the departing closed low won`t
totally exit our northeastern counties until tuesday.

the primary weather impact from the departing system will be
lake effect/enhanced rain showers occasionally streaming off of
lake erie into parts of northeast oh and northwest pa. lake
water temperatures are near 25c on average, so as 850mb
temperatures bottom out at 6-8c late today and tonight, with
700mb temperatures dipping to just below 0c and 500mb
temperatures bottoming out around -20c, impressive and deep
instability will be in place over the late summer lake waters.
flow will generally waiver between the west and northwest
through early tuesday before shifting more firmly offshore.

we are seeing a flareup of lake effect showers and a few storms
during the pre-dawn hours this sunday morning as an initial vort
max and surface trough axis works across the region. there will
likely be a lull for several hours later this morning into this
afternoon, before another impressive vort max and surface trough
cross the lake the first half of tonight. this is expected to
bring another, likely more widespread, flareup of lake effect
showers and thunderstorms. lake effect activity is possible as
far west as the islands and sandusky through early tonight.
thereafter, activity will continue mainly from near the
cleveland metro points east-northeast (and will be most
organized across northwest pa) monday into early tuesday, though
will likely shut-off farther west of cleveland as high pressure
gradually builds from the west-southwest. lake effect is not
expected to be as intense/organized (and will have decreasing
thunder potential) starting late tonight, and may completely
stop at times. however, coverage/intensity may briefly increase
monday morning, monday evening, and perhaps early tuesday as
additional spokes of mid-level energy and surface troughs
rotate around the backside of our departing closed low.

after this morning`s flareup, the main concern for organized
activity that could produce locally heavy rain downwind of lake
erie in short order is the first half of tonight. rain amounts
will need to be monitored for localized flooding potential if
any more stationary bands of lake effect play out, especially
over areas that saw heavy rain on saturday. lower overall
confidence in impactful flooding and a likely limited potential
areal scope of any flooding that occurs precludes a flood watch
at this time. some storms coming off the lake may produce small
hail through early tonight, with the potential for gusty winds
with any storms coming off the lake this evening as well. qpf
amounts from the eastern cleveland suburbs and across the core
"snowbelt" of far northeast oh and northwest pa generally range
from 0.50-2.00", which is manageable on its own, though given
the very convective nature amounts will vary more than shown in
the forecast and can locally end up in the 2-4" range. that
would be where an isolated flooding concern can develop.

across the rest of the area a good scattered of showers is
likely late this afternoon and evening as the vort max and
surface trough work through. otherwise, a drying trend is
favored into the first half of the week as high pressure builds.

highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s today and monday,
coolest across northeast oh and northwest pa (the hills of pa
may be stuck in the low-mid 60s most of monday), with overnight
lows largely in the 50s the next few nights. a few outlying
areas may get into the 40s monday night where skies clear. a
gradual warming trend begins on tuesday.

key message 2..
the next upper trough digs into the great lakes wednesday and
thursday, with weak low pressure tracking well to our north and
pulling a cold front through the local area likely on thursday.
this does not look like a very dynamic system, but will bring
the next potential for scattered showers and storms. the
greatest potential for rain appears to be late wednesday night
into thursday. given weaker dynamics and amounts of instability
and moisture that appear modest, the risk for severe weather
and/or heavy rain with this system is currently minimal.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
low-end vfr (3.5kft cigs) conditions across the taf sites this
afternoon with pockets of non- vfr possible in showers and
thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, mainly east of
i-71. starting to see some developing isolated to scattered
showers across the area this afternoon, though thunder remains
at a minimum so far. the highest confidence for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms is later this evening, mainly at
cle/yng/eri. brief elevated wind gusts up to 40 knots are
possible at eri with this activity.

winds remain elevated out of the west to northwest this
afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
some isolated higher gusts up to 30 knots cannot be ruled out
through the rest of this afternoon. winds will diminish to less
than 10 knots overnight, increasing again out of the west monday
afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lake effect rain and/or low
ceilings across the snowbelt late monday into tuesday. non-vfr
may return in showers and thunderstorms wednesday night into
thursday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions are expected on lake erie today through
monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as
the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. west to
northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots today through monday afternoon. waves will increase
3 to 8 feet today through monday. waterspouts will be very
possible on lake erie today through monday as well. small craft
advisories and beach hazard statements for rip currents have
been issued through monday afternoon and evening. high pressure
will slowly build in monday night into tuesday with conditions
on lake erie improving. by tuesday, winds will be westerly to
southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet.
the southerly winds will linger into wednesday 5 to 12 knots
and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. the next weather system to
possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving
through the great lakes region by thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through monday afternoon for ohz009-
010.
beach hazards statement through monday evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through monday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until midnight edt monday night for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
910
fxus63 kiwx 231724
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
124 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

.key messages...

- scattered lake enhanced showers possible before sunset today.

- breezy this afternoon and evening with northwest winds gusting as
high as 20 to 25 mph.

- dangerous swimming conditions persist through this evening on
southern lake michigan with a high swim risk.

- seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity continue through
tuesday.

- next opportunity for rain and storms arrives wednesday
afternoon and evening with 30-60% chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1241 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

we are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy
conditions, and cooler temperatures! a low pressure system has
departed the upper great lakes region and is currently located over
southern ontario. isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on
radar this afternoon as the system`s attendant mid level trough
pivots through northern indiana. northwest cyclonic flow and delta
ts of ~14c (water temps ~24c, 10c at 850mb tonight) over lake
michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until
sunset. in addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from
the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to
generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and
evening. northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with
gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. breezy conditions and
caa will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast lake
michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening.
a beach hazards statement is in effect for la porte and berrien
counties through 11 pm edt tonight. there is a high swim risk today
with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. strong rip and
structural currents are also expected! if your weekend plans include
heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings
from lifeguards and stay out of the water!

an area of high pressure located over the midwest with build into
the great lakes region early in the week. much lower humidity and
several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing
early fall-like days. highs on monday will be in the mid to upper
70s and highs on tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually
warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. clear skies
and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are
ahead! get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows monday and tuesday
morning will only be in the low 50s!

wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain
and storms. an upper level trough deepens over the great lakes and a
surface cold front is expected to move through. there are have
30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms wednesday, with
the highest chances along and north of the us 30 corridor. this
setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the
vorticity maximum is located further north across michigan so
our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. instability
appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. we
will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather
and flooding risks are low. high pressure returns late in the
week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 120 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

mainly vfr conditions will prevail through this taf period.
however, for kfwa there is a chance of mvfr vsbys in light
showers this afternoon between 17z to 22z. confidence is low in
this outcome and even coverage. breezy northwest to westerly
winds this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming
light during the overnight period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 10 pm cdt this evening for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
853
fxus63 kdtx 231733
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
133 pm edt sun aug 23 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers
through sunday night.

- dry weather monday into tuesday with a warming trend. the next
chance of showers and storms is possible late wednesday and
thursday.

&&

.aviation...

low pressure continues to occlude over the ontario/quebec border,
with cyclonic gradient flow on the backside of the low peaking
around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. wrap-around moisture
pairs with lake moisture flux to support low vfr ceilings through
most of the taf period as well. isolated shower coverage peaks
through the diurnal cycle followed by a window of decreasing cloud
coverage to sct-few this evening. a second pool of moisture over
central ontario releases south tonight into monday, bringing another
opportunity for low vfr cigs. the airspace will be on the outer edge
of the moisture gradient meaning fluctuations in coverage will be
possible throughout the day. otherwise, breezy west-northwest winds
and dry conditions expected monday.

d21/dtw convection... very low potential for an isolated
thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate to high for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and tonight.

* very low for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 318 am edt sun aug 23 2026

discussion...

a series of embedded shortwave maxima will dig directly into the
central great lakes bolstering a closed 560 dam h5 trough through
monday night. progs show 850mb temperatures bottoming out at +7c
which will largely support high temperatures in the lower to upper
70s range the next couple of days, some 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
beefiest of the absolute vorticity maxima will arrive this afternoon
with a direct path into the cwa while turning to a negative tilt.
forecast environmental profile shows main limiting factor for today
will be very modest midlevel lapse rate structure at 5.5 c/km
preceding the absolute vorticity. nwp supports upward vertical
motion beginning to deepen after 18z with height falls rapidly
pushing to the southeast of southeast michigan. will require a good
amount of lift to fight off the subsidence and all signs suggest
shower and possible thunderstorm activity being relegated to the
far southeast cwa mainly between 21-00z. guidance looks again
underdone. again, modest lapse rates do not suggest much cape
density this afternoon and no severe weather is expected.

closed low pushes eastward leading to 1000-500mb geopotential height
rises and surface high pressure monday. only real item of note will
be the potential for early to mid morning rain showers possible for
the northern thumb region/huron county as good model signal exists
for highly cyclonic flow and confluence downwind of saginaw bay and
lake huron.

great day tuesday for outdoor interests with high around 80 and
surface dewpoints in the 50s. high confidence in very favorable
weather with upper level confluent flow supporting strong surface
ridging.

broad upper level jet streak and associated absolute vorticity wave
packet is forecasted to push into the great lakes region wednesday
and thursday. uncertainty exists on most likely time window for
precipitation onset as there will be a dry column preceding the
wave. temperatures are expected to be near late august averages
thursday and friday.

marine...

breezy post-frontal northwest flow to persist today and into the
better part of tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the great
lakes. sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
are expected, the strongest of which will be found across north-
central and central lake huron where the fetch is more favorable.
some isolated gust potential to low-end gales cannot be ruled out
for lake huron, but will preclude any gale headlines given very low
confidence to achieve any prolonged period of gales. otherwise, rain
showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today along
with a very low chance for a waterspout, most favorable across lake
huron. high pressure will start to build into the region late
tomorrow and will settle over the great lakes by tuesday. process of
this high pressure moving in will start to relax wind speeds and
gusts, leading to light winds by tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through monday afternoon for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt monday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.