Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
721 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

.what has changed...
eastern ohio and northwest pennsylvania have been placed under a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated damaging winds with
any stronger thunderstorms through this evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through this
evening, with isolated damaging winds possible with any more
intense storms that are able to develop.

2) a brief period of quiet weather tonight and sunday.

3) an unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances for
thunderstorms is expected sunday night through wednesday. there
will be some risks for severe weather, along with potential for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to the repeated rounds of
storms. there remains lower confidence in the exact timing,
placement, and severity of storms early this week.

4) a cooler and drier pattern is favored to end the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as of 3 pm, a cold front extends from extreme southeast mi and
across northwest oh. this front will sweep southeast across the
forecast area through this evening. there is also a lake breeze
boundary evident near the lake erie shoreline, especially
northeast of cleveland.

isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to gradually
evolve along the cold front as it sweeps across the area. we may
also see a few showers or storms develop across southern
portions of the area ahead of the front on the nose of higher
theta-e air trying to advect in from the west-southwest, along
with along the aforementioned lake breeze.

warm and dry mid-levels, along with rather weak large scale
forcing, are negatives for storm development and have led to
activity being slow to get going so far. jet support modestly
improves after 5 pm as a very subtle shortwave progresses
across the southern great lakes, so do expect coverage and
intensity of showers and storms to increase at least somewhat
into this evening as the front progresses east across the area.
activity should exit to the southeast between 9-11 pm with the
front. overall, pops range from 30-60% across the area this
evening, mainly in the 30-40% range but briefly higher across
the wooster/akron-canton/youngstown areas.

weak shear and the warm/dry mid-levels will make it difficult to
see organized/intense thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
however, steep low-level lapse rates, moderate to strong mlcape,
and strong dcape can support a few microbursts/downbursts if any
more intense storms can play out. confidence is low-medium.

key message 2...
a cooler and drier airmass briefly moves in for tonight and
sunday behind the front. there may be some patchy radiational
cooling fog in the "usual spots" early sunday morning.
otherwise, sunday is expected to be rain-free until very late.
highs will again be well into the 80s on sunday, but dew points
will be about 10 degrees cooler than today.

key message 3...
the much-anticipated active pattern (some may call it a "ring
of fire") is still on track beginning sunday night. the pattern
favors repeated rounds of storms with risks for both severe
weather and heavy rain/flash flooding across the region through
the first half of the week...however, would like to state quite
clearly that these types of patterns feature plenty of
uncertainty regarding the exact placement and severity of
storms, as each round of storms will modify the environment and
lay down boundaries that affect subsequent rounds. so the advice
at this time is to be prepared for unsettled weather through the
first half of this week, including potential for severe weather
and flash flooding, but to continuously check back for updates
as it`s currently too early to have confidence in the details.

aloft, ridging will be in place from the rockies east across
much of the south, with a modest trough over the northeast.
this will put our area beneath a band of enhanced west-northwest
flow aloft for the first half of the week. at the surface, this
evening`s front will lift back north as a warm front sunday
night and monday, waiver across the southern great lakes through
tuesday and into wednesday, and finally push back south of the
area late wednesday or wednesday night. clusters of storms will
be favored near and just south of the front, with some tendency
in these types of regimes for clusters of storms or mcss to dive
south of the front into the deeper instability. the forecast
has elevated chances for rain and storms for several periods
beginning sunday evening or night across the area, though in
reality storm chances will be occasional from late sunday
through wednesday with a combination of various shortwaves and
daytime heating modulating when risks are higher or lower.

with the caveat that uncertainty increases farther out in time,
current consensus has a few potential window of elevated rain
and storm chances. an initial, weakening cluster of storms will
attempt to spread in from the west-northwest sunday evening into
sunday night. there is greater confidence in another cluster
spreading in late sunday night or early monday. beyond that,
there`s decent confidence in the next window for storms to
develop or move in will be late monday and monday night.
confidence decreases too much to identify additional windows
with much resolution, but the front is not expected to sweep
south until wednesday or wednesday night, so the forecast
maintains elevated storm chances tuesday into wednesday.

south of the front, a combination of a very warm and humid
airmass beneath somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates will
support moderate to strong instability monday through wednesday.
this will couple with moderate deep-layer shear to support risks
for organized/severe convection. precipitable water values
increase to 1.50-1.90" sunday night through wednesday. that is
not extreme, but still can support more efficient rain-rates
and eventually a risk for flash flooding where training or
repeated rounds of storms occur. this is overall a setup that
can support impactful convective hazards (mainly in the form of
damaging winds, potentially widespread, and/or flash flooding)
across the broader region. however, there`s lower confidence in
the exact timing and placement. currently, it appears that any
storms between monday afternoon and tuesday evening would have
the greatest overall risk to be severe and/or produce excessive
rainfall across the local area.

the main "fail mode" with a setup like this is clusters of
storms continuously diving southward into the deeper instability
and largely remaining just to our west/southwest. this could
limit how much instability can advect into the local area and
end up focusing activity farther west/southwest than modeled.
currently, most guidance suggests we`ll be able to lift the
instability axis into at least parts of our area by monday
night, though trends will need to be monitored. overall, the
northeast end of our area has lower confidence in seeing heavy
rain or severe weather than locations farther west/southwest.

key message 4...
a trough and surface high pressure are expected to build into
the great lakes and new england thursday into friday, bringing a
period of cooler and drier weather to end the week.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
widespread vfr conditions will continue this evening behind
isolated showers and thunderstorms. have a prob30 in at
kcak/kyng for any additional thunderstorm develop that may move
overhead southeastern terminals through ~02z/sun. a brief window
of mvfr ceilings is possible near daybreak as radiational fog
develops across inland terminals. have tempo groups at taf sites
where highest confidence in br exists.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected sunday
night through thursday as periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms move across the airspace. some storms could be
strong to severe during this timeframe, especially on monday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 10-15 knots will persist across the lake today ahead
of an approaching cold front. this cold front will transit the lake
later this afternoon into tonight, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms with it. behind the front winds will shift out of the
northwest, decreasing below 10 knots across the eastern half of the
lake after 04z, and after 08z everywhere else. a ridge will build
into the region sunday, with light and variable winds through the
day.

a series of low pressure systems, with showers and thunderstorms,
will transit the region sunday night through thursday. southwest
winds 15-20 knots are possible monday, with winds becoming westerly
to northwesterly less than 10 knots tuesday. brief ridging with
light and variable winds is expected wednesday, with southwest winds
10-15 knots thursday morning, becoming northwesterly in the
afternoon.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...13
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
725 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

.key messages...

- an active pattern brings periodic chances for thunderstorms
sunday afternoon through the middle of the upcoming week.
some storms could be severe and may also result in flash
flooding, especially sunday night through monday night.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

a cold front will sag southeast through northeast in and northwest
oh this afternoon. this front will have up to near 2000 j/kg of
mlcape to work with. however, lacking deep forcing/moisture, and
only 15-20 kts of effective shear, should keep any convection sub-
severe and isolated (10-30%) along the front. drier air then briefly
settles in post-frontal tonight and sunday morning, with the
potential for patchy fog early sunday as winds go light/calm under a
mainly clear sky.

the aforementioned frontal boundary will lift back northeast toward
the mi state line sunday afternoon into sunday night on the nose of
increasing low level west-southwest flow. this will allow very
muggy/unstable air to advect back into the lower great lakes. this
will set the stage for a prolonged, convectively active period
across the region through midweek as several low amplitude
shortwaves send convective complexes through on the southern fringes
of developing west-northwest flow aloft.

chances for convection will enter the picture sunday afternoon into
early sunday evening with the initial theta-e surge and some
semblance of an incoming mcs from the west. the bulk of the area may
see this feature in a weakening, more elevated state, though
could see a few cells rooted in the surface (potentially severe)
into northwest in, depending on the timing/intensity of
convection, and the positioning of the sfc warm front. 12z cams
did come into better agreement on another subtle impulse
invigorating a cluster of convection along the frontal slope
later sunday night over mainly northern zones, possibly sinking
south over the area through mid morning monday. flooding appears
to be the primary risk, though a low end wind threat could
emerge if a decent cold pool becomes established.

forecast specifics become increasingly uncertain with time monday
through wednesday as where the next several convective clusters
track will depend on how the previous convective cycle played out,
and how any cold pools modulate where mesoscale composite outflow
boundaries set up for renewed diurnally driven thunderstorm
activity. it is worth noting that shear/instability/moisture
profiles will support the potential for severe thunderstorms and
flooding, particularly late monday afternoon into monday night.
otherwise, given the low confidence, held close to nbm guidance for
pops and temps in what could be a fairly active period.

models overall continue to support some suppression by thursday and
friday as troughing into the northeast us likely forces the
boundary and associated humidity/moisture off to the south.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 724 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

a cold front continuing to push southward allows dry air to seep
into the area during the overnight and for subsidence to take over.
with how much moisture exists in the low levels of the atmosphere
and in the ground after recent rain opportunities, think fog is a
possibility again tonight with winds going light to calm, favorable
cross-over temps, and subsidence noted in the forecast soundings.
the cold front quickly moves back northward as a warm front again on
sunday. it does appear like there is some model agreement on
bringing a shortwave into lake mi around 18z sunday and this brings
an opportunity for showers and storms at sbn within an hour of its
arrival. what comes with less confidence is will it be able to
maintain itself by the time it gets to fwa. we may also have
redevelopment of such thunderstorms by the time we get to midnight
sunday night.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1140 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

.key messages...

- showers and storms possible late sunday into monday morning.

- additional storms possible monday night.

- temperatures remain seasonable through most of this weekend, with
highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure promotes clearing skies and weakening winds through
tonight. influence of said high lingers through sunday morning
before upstream convection over the western great lakes approaches
the area in the evening. exactly how well this complex survives into
se mi, or the degree of redevelopment overnight behind it, carries a
good amount of uncertainty at this stage so continue to hold prob30
mentions.

d21/dtw convection... no convection forecast through sunday
afternoon. upstream storms over the western great lakes are expected
to track near/over se mi sunday evening/night though this carries a
high amount of uncertainty this far out.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 5000 ft through sunday afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms sunday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 343 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

discussion...

the cold front was able to pass through with just a few showers in
the northern thumb and gusty westerly winds across the rest of the
area. subsidence from high pressure building into the region in the
wake of the front this evening will quickly scour out the remaining
cloud field and allow for a cool night with lows dropping into the
50s for most locations.

main longwave trough flattens a bit tonight into tomorrow as heights
attempt to rise slightly from the south. surface high and shortwave
ridge will be over the region the first half of sunday keeping the
area dry, but chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to increase
once again in the late afternoon and evening as upstream convection
attempts to drift into se mi north of a developing warm front. a
surface low will deepen over the plains which then turns the stalled
cold front draped along the ohio valley into a warm front and draws
it back northward. strong low level jet up through iowa tonight will
attempt to fire off a round of convection that will track along the
elevated warm front across lake mi and into sw lower mi early sunday
before potentially running out of instability and scouring out.
chance pops will begin west of i75 sunday evening to account for the
potential eastward shift of the convective complex. spc day 2
outlook highlights southern mi along the border with a marginal risk
of severe weather for the potential for this, and or any other
convection, riding along the warm front.

additional storm chances sunday night into monday as the trough
pushes the system eastward resulting in the low level jet
intersecting the warm front near chicago. this round of convection
is then expected to track along the front and near the state line
and into se mi early monday morning. spc day 3 outlook has an area
of slight risk up through detroit with marginal risk extending
further north to saginaw. very moist airmass with surface dewpoints
near 70f and pwats in excess of 1.75 inches will lead to very
efficient rainfall with the storms so in addition to severe weather
threats, heavy rainfall will be a threat as well. especially if
multiple round of storms pass through the area through the day.

we remain in the active northwest flow pattern through midweek with
potential for periodic rain chances. slightly cooler pattern
expected late in the week with highs only topping out in the upper
70s.

marine...

high pressure slides east across the region tonight into sunday,
with west-northwest winds becoming south and southwest by sunday
morning. south winds increase sunday across northern lake huron, to
around 20-25 knots. the uptick in winds on sunday over the saginaw
bay will bring 2-3 feet waves, but conditions look to fall just
short of small craft advisory criteria at this time. much of sunday
remains dry, but sunday evening through early next week an active
pattern will bring back chances for organized thunderstorms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...drk
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.