Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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317
fxus61 kcle 301920
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
320 pm edt thu jul 30 2026

.what has changed...
added a slight chance for a few showers across inland northeast
and north central ohio friday afternoon. the rainfall forecast
this weekend has trended up somewhat, mainly late saturday into
early sunday. the system has also trended slightly slower.

&&

.key messages...
1) tranquil and pleasant conditions through early saturday.

2) occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the area this weekend, especially late saturday into
early sunday. locally heavy rainfall is possible where any
repeated or training thunderstorms occur.

3) seasonable temperatures next week with minor rain chances.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
temperatures trend several degrees warmer for friday as we get
into return flow behind the departing high pressure, reaching
the mid to upper 80s across much of the area. still carrying
patchy fog across interior portions of the area east of i-71
late tonight into early friday due to favorable radiational
cooling conditions. any fog should be confined to the typical
less urban, lower-lying areas. dry weather is largely favored to
persist through at least early saturday across much of the
area. do have a slight chance for showers mentioned friday
afternoon across portions of interior northern ohio. daytime
heating may yield just enough instability for a few showers to
try developing as a lake breeze pushes inland.

key message 2...
main focus continues to be an upper trough and associated
surface low that will dive across the western/southern great
lakes and northern ohio valley this weekend. the surface low is
expected to move east and pull a cold front across the local
area during the day sunday. models and ensembles still show
some spread among the finer details, but are beginning to
converge on a solution. there has been a modest trend to show a
more amplified trough, leading to a slightly slower and stronger
surface low that tracks a bit farther northwest. overall, this
leads to an increase in the rainfall forecast across the area
and leads to the chances for rain on sunday trending higher as
the cold front crosses the area slower.

overall, some showers may graze northwest ohio and perhaps lake
erie and adjacent lakeshore counties farther east late friday
night or early saturday morning as warm air and moisture
advection begins increasing ahead of the approaching system.
rain potential ramps up from west to east saturday into saturday
night...it still looks like eastern oh into pa may be dry for
most of the day saturday due to a drier easterly low-level flow,
particularly with the system trending a bit slower. rain
potential is expected to peak late saturday into early sunday
when we get into the most favorable region for large-scale lift
just ahead of the approaching shortwave and surface low. with
the system trending a bit slower, the expected drying trend from
the northwest sunday into sunday night has trended a bit slower
as well. we should see a gradual drying trend by sunday night,
though the day sunday has trended more unsettled/wetter overall.

the combination of weak mid-level lapse rates (<6.0c/km) and
fairly limited heating will keep a lid on how much instability
can develop this weekend, meaning severe weather potential
should be on the low side. the trend for a more amplified
system in recent guidance does allow deep-layer shear to
increase modestly (to around 30kt) sunday, and the slower trend
may give time for a bit more instability to build ahead of the
crossing front. so, we`ll monitor trends for a lower-end severe
risk across our eastern/southeastern counties sunday. as
precipitable water values increase to nearly 2.00" late saturday
into sunday amid skinny instability profiles, rainfall rates
within any convection will become quite efficient. the modest
trend for a more amplified system does increase potential for
locally heavy rain across parts of the area, especially between
late saturday and early sunday. we`ll need to monitor for any
locations that see training or repeated convection for localized
heavy rain/flooding concerns. the area has dried out recently,
so the rain should largely be more beneficial than harmful.

high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s this
weekend (warmer saturday), with overnight lows and humidity
levels trending up from the last few days.

key message 3...
there is some uncertainty regarding how quickly our weekend
system exits. most models and ensemble members have a quick exit
by sunday night or early monday...the gfs cuts off a portion of
the weekend system, with that cut-off low then lingering early
next week across the region. the gfs is viewed as an outlier,
but that overall evolution does contain some uncertainty.
the favored solution is more seasonable temperatures and largely
dry weather for the first half of next week, but the forecast
does contain some lower pops due to some uncertainty regarding
how quickly the weekend system exits, and due to some
uncertainty regarding how quickly high pressure builds in and
clears out some of the low-level moisture. as ridging builds
across the western and southern u.s. late next week a more
unsettled west-northwest flow may try developing across the
great lakes. overall confidence in any shower/storm chances the
second half of next week is quite low this far out.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period with
occasional afternoon cumulus clouds today and upper-level
cirrus tonight and tomorrow. north winds this afternoon become
light and variable tonight and tomorrow.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected saturday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.marine...
quiet weather conditions are expected on lake erie as high
pressure build across the area through friday. low pressure
moving across the ohio valley will produce east flow saturday
evening into saturday night, becoming northerly by sunday.
scattered thunderstorms may impact lake erie at times saturday
afternoon through early sunday night.

wind speeds are unlikely to exceed 20 knots but the latest nbm
is forecasting a meaningful chance of waves in the 3-5 ft range
(20-40% chance of occurrence) sunday afternoon through monday
night, particularly for the central basin of lake erie. will
need to monitor for potential hazardous conditions to swimmers
and small craft on lake erie during this period.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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417
fxus63 kiwx 301846
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
246 pm edt thu jul 30 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather continues through the day friday with seasonably warm
temperatures.

- chances for showers and storms friday evening into the
weekend, best potential (60-80 percent) friday night into
saturday night. scattered showers and storms are likely to
persist into sunday, especially along and east of interstate
69.

- widespread severe weather is not expected with storms this
weekend, but an isolated strong storm with wind gusts over 50
mph and some localized heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along
the la porte county, in shoreline on saturday. breaking waves
and currents are expected. there is a high swim risk for
beaches along both la porte county, in and berrien county, mi
sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 234 pm edt thu jul 30 2026

quiet weather conditions will continue through the day friday, with
a trend toward a more active weekend in terms of shower and storm
chances.

progression of upper level pattern will allow an upstream upper
level ridge to build across the great lakes region into friday
morning. corresponding low level anticyclone will be centered across
the region tonight providing light and variable winds. some high
clouds may spill over the dampening ridge across the northern
plains, but are not expected to have a significant impact on temps
tonight (seasonable low temps from upper 50s to lower 60s) with
decent radiational cooling conditions.

attention for later friday into the weekend will be on evolution of
an upper level short evident across idaho/western montana this
afternoon. this short wave is progged to drop southeast down the
ridge through the day friday and into the lower ohio river valley by
sunday morning. convection is expected to develop tonight across the
dakotas as a low level jet preceding this disturbance enhances low
level moisture convergence. convection associated with this feature
will act to modify this short wave from tonight through friday night
which leads to some uncertainty in strength and track of associated
low/mid level features. some dprog/dt trends have indicated a slight
slowing trend with the mid level trough evolution which may keep
higher rain chances into sunday east of interstate 69. still a good
deal of uncertainty remains with track of this system given upper
level synoptic tendencies favoring a more suppressed track of low
level reflection into southern il/southern in, while
diabatically generated low/mid level pv anomalies will tend to
want to steer track across the southern great lakes. it remains
unclear to what extent this northward displaced diabatic pv
anomaly influences track. nonetheless, will continue idea of
previous forecast with rain chances increasing sharply from
west to east friday night into saturday morning as advective
forcing increases downstream of the wave. may need to watch for
potential of some locally heavier rainfall amounts friday night
into saturday particularly if deformation forcing can anchor for
a time across portions of the area. pwats of 1.75+ inches are
possible, and potential does exist for warm cloud depths in
excess of 12k feet. if the more amplified/northward solution
pans out, cannot completely discount some isolated wind
potential during the afternoon/early evening saturday given this
solution would at least be moderately sheared in weakly
unstable environment. early indications would suggest if
isolated severe threat does evolve, it would be most likely
south of us-24 across northeast in/northwest oh which may be
located at nose of instability axis.

for sunday and monday, pattern features a bit of a rex-block look
with the possibility that upper low becomes stagnant across the
lower oh valley as longwave ridging pushes across eastern ontario
and western quebec. this blocking will likely slow the warming trend
and delay arrival of next significant low level thermal ridge, or
keep brunt of this west-east thermal ridging back across the
plains/corn belt. an active southern canada pattern will likely
dampen upstream longwave ridging enough for periodic chances of
showers and storms wednesday through friday along with near
seasonable temps.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 121 pm edt thu jul 30 2026

surface high pressure overhead gives way to approaching low pressure
just after this period allowing for the continuation of dry
weather and wind trajectories to back from west-northwesterly
today to more southerly by friday morning. winds stay below 10
kts sustained through the forecast period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 301911
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
311 pm edt thu jul 30 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are
forecast saturday and sunday. there is considerable uncertainty in
the rainfall forecast, especially saturday night and sunday. there
is a low chance (10-20% chance) that a narrow axis of heavy rain
could develop and bring flooding concerns, especially over urban
areas.

- dry weather returns early next week with warming temperatures
approaching 90 degrees by mid week.

&&

.discussion...

the rest of this evening is expected to remain mostly dry. current
satellite and observational trends show the lake breeze boundary
make its way inland from the saginaw bay and southern half of lake
huron. there is a low chance (<15%) for a rogue shower to develop
along the lake breeze boundary through the evening hours.

the area of high pressure which has brought a bout of nice weather
over these last few days will gradually weaken and move over the mid-
atlantic region friday through saturday, in response to an
approaching and deepening longwave trough moving in from the
west. this change from large scale subsidence to what looks to
be multiple rounds of ascent moving into the region will transition
our weather pattern to a more active one for this weekend. friday
will be a transition day where we will see an uptick in cloud cover,
but most of the day should remain dry.

the forecast for friday night through sunday will hinge heavily on
how a slow-moving upper level trough, the parent surface low
track across the midwest, and whether or not this upper level wave
phases with another lobe of energy digging south into the region on
sunday. chances for precipitation for saturday and now sunday have
increased with this forecast package update, but this is still
considerable uncertainty in the weekend forecast.

most ensemble members show a considerable increase in pwats ahead of
the main upper level wave as moisture and warm air advection track
into the region and wrap back around the surface low, progged to
track across illinois and indiana. if this track holds true, then we
will be in a moisture-rich environment supportive of heavy rain, with
multiple rounds of large-scale ascent and an increased risk for
episodes of training convection. the drier solutions feature a
more open trough and a surface low that is considerably further
south. this uncertainty leaves a wide range of possible outcomes for
rain and possible impacts across southeast michigan. if the higher
end rainfall solutions come to fruition, flooding may become a
concern in urban areas, especially saturday night and possibly
sunday.

by monday, high pressure should settle back into the region as large-
scale subsidence takes over and a narrow, yet amplified upper level
ridge moves into the region. this will favor a warming and drying
trend into early next week.

&&

.marine...

light and variable winds across the central great lakes this
afternoon as high pressure tracks through the region passing just to
the south across the ohio river valley into tomorrow. wind fields
will respond accordingly and become southerly to westerly. a low
pressure system will then follows and also tracks across the ohio
valley over the weekend. winds turn northeasterly across lake huron
saturday night, which will bring favorable flow that will lead to
increased winds and waves through saginaw bay. this low and
associated frontal features will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms starting late friday night and into sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 106 pm edt thu jul 30 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions, dry weather, and light winds will persist into
tomorrow as the upper-level ridge currently in place slowly breaks
down and exits east. aside from diurnal afternoon vfr cumulus, low to
mid-level clouds will be scarce over the next 24 hours.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...ja
marine.......aa
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.