Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
737 pm edt fri may 22 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains valid, overall, compared to the previous
full update early this morning.

&&

.key messages...
1.) slightly below-average to near-average temperatures and
periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through memorial
day. enough rain should fall to cause minor flooding along some
creeks and rivers in our area.

2.) primarily dry weather and near-average to above-average
temperatures are expected this monday night through friday, may
29th.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs
affect our region through memorial day. at the surface, a
primary low should wobble ne`ward from northeastern ar late this
afternoon to near central in by daybreak saturday before
wobbling farther ne`ward to near central lake huron by daybreak
sunday. the low should then wobble e`ward to near the gulf of
maine by memorial day. this low track should allow a surface
warm front to drift ne`ward through our region during the
daylight hours of saturday through saturday night, while a weak
cold front should sweep generally se`ward through our region
late saturday afternoon through sunday night. behind the cold
front, a weak surface ridge should build from the northern and
central great lakes through memorial day.

periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, continue to overspread
our region slowly and generally from the south the rest of this
afternoon through tonight as isentropic ascent occurs along the
upper-reaches of the warm front and taps into rich low-level
moisture originating over the southern gulf stream and gulf.
occasional and isolated thunderstorms are possible as the
isentropic ascent releases weak instability. on saturday through
sunday night, additional periods of rain, steady to heavy at
times, are expected due to the following: moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of
shortwave trough axes aloft; low-level convergence/moist ascent
along the surface warm and cold fronts. these lifting mechanisms
may release weak, yet sufficient instability to trigger
additional isolated thunderstorms. widespread rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches are expected today through sunday night. as
rainwater runoff enters area creeks and rivers, some waterways
(e.g. killbuck creek in holmes county) should rise to minor
flood stage this weekend. minor flooding is possible in poor
drainage and/or low-lying areas as well. forecast confidence
regarding widespread minor flooding remains low, which has
precluded the issuance of a flood watch for any part of our cwa.
on memorial day, current odds favor dry weather as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the aforementioned surface ridge.
however, isolated showers and thunderstorms associated with the
upper-reaches of the departing cold front may impact roughly the
southeastern-third of our cwa.

overnight lows should reach the upper 40`s to lower 50`s in nw
pa and the 50`s in northern oh around daybreak saturday as
abundant cloud cover associated with the aforementioned low
pressure system and net low-level waa ahead of the surface warm
front contribute to limited nocturnal cooling. given the
projected evolution of the surface warm and cold fronts, daytime
highs on saturday should reach only the mid 50`s to mid 60`s in
nw pa and the 60`s to lower 70`s in northern oh. overnight lows
should then reach the upper 40`s to upper 50`s around daybreak
sunday. on sunday, peeks of sunshine and some daytime heating
should allow daytime highs to reach mainly the upper 60`s to
upper 70`s. weak and net low-level caa behind the cold front
should be accompanied by lows reaching mainly the 50`s around
daybreak monday. on memorial day, the aforementioned building
surface ridge will be accompanied by stabilizing subsidence and
clearing sky. despite the expectation for our area to be
located in the cool sector, sufficient sunshine and daytime
heating should allow highs to reach the mid 60`s to upper 70`s.
note: the coolest highs on sunday and monday are expected over
and within several miles of ~57f lake erie due to lake breeze
development during the late morning through early evening hours
of both days.

key message 2...
current odds favor drier and warmer weather this upcoming monday
night through friday since our region should become located
downstream of a pseudo rex block aloft that should become
focused over the central united states and vicinity. as a
result, the aforementioned surface ridge should continue to
affect our region and be accompanied by stabilizing subsidence
that strengthens with time, promoting clearer sky and greater
daytime heating. daily lows should reach mainly the 50`s or 60`s
around daybreak on tuesday through friday, while daily
afternoon highs should reach mainly the 70`s or 80`s.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
rain and lower ceilings have been a bit slower to move in
compared to the previous taf, so have slowed the onset a bit.
ifr conditions and widespread rain are expected through at
least the overnight hours once they develop. rain becomes a bit
more scattered by mid to late morning, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms saturday afternoon. ifr also gives way to mostly
mvfr by saturday afternoon, though could be persist longer at
western taf sites such as kfdy and especially ktol where lifr
could be possible. easterly flow early tonight should gradually
become more southeasterly late tonight and through tomorrow.
winds will likely be a bit more variable along the i-75 corridor
where the low will track through on saturday, followed by a
cold front entering late saturday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr expected into late saturday evening, and then
again late sunday into early monday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory continues for the lake through late evening,
and then for the western basin through saturday morning as easterly
winds 20-30kts persist with wave heights generally 3-5ft. winds
continue out of the southeast saturday at 20-25kts, and wave heights
1-2ft in the nearshore zones, and 2-5ft in the open waters away from
shore. low pressure moves through, quickly followed by high
pressure, and winds become light and variable for sunday through
tuesday with wave heights less than a foot.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through saturday morning for ohz003-
007-009-010.
beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
ohz011-012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...saunders
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
808 pm edt fri may 22 2026

.key messages...

- rain overspreads the area from south to north tonight, then
tapers off from west to east on saturday. locally heavy
rainfall (1" plus), mainly for portions of northwest ohio.

- another system moves through on sunday with a chance for
showers (50-70%) and isolated storms

- warmer and mainly dry next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 145 pm edt fri may 22 2026

a period of enhanced moisture transport/convergence associated with
a northward advancing shortwave and weak sfc reflection will allow
rain to spread north over the area tonight into early saturday
morning. greatest chances (>60% per href) for locally heavier
rainfall totals in excess of an inch clip portions of northwest oh
where a strengthening low level jet draws in deeper moisture. up to
around a half inch expected elsewhere, save for far western in and
southwest mi where lighter rainfall is anticipated.

coverage of rain showers will diminish on saturday from west to
east, though some renewed development and perhaps a few storms will
be possible east of the interstate 69 corridor with the diurnal
cycle as some very weak destabilization occurs in the vicinity of a
trailing surface trough.

another shortwave and sfc trough looks to traverse the area on
sunday with renewed chances for showers and isolated storms, best
chances (50-70%) during the afternoon. coverage and rain amounts
should be more limited this go around however due to more nebulous
forcing.

a trend toward warmer, above normal, temperatures become the primary
story next week on the southeastern fringe of a developing upper
level ridge centered over the north-central us and south-central
canada. this should keep more humid conditions and better rain
chances locked up just south of the area near a stalled out
boundary. however, cannot rule out a few showers mid-late week as a
backdoor cold front potentially drops through (low confidence).

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 758 pm edt fri may 22 2026

predominantly mvfr to ifr conditions for the terminals this
period, with drops to low end-ifr and lifr possible tonight into
saturday morning. a low pressure system lifts from ky into in/nw
oh through saturday morning, then into se lower mi/lake
erie/ontario through saturday evening. this will bring an area
of more widespread rain to the terminals, moving generally from
s-se to n-nw. ceilings/visibilities drop during this period as
the surface low moves in towards morning-which could give us the
potential for lifr conditions (some guidance has as low as 300
ft at kfwa/ksbn). rain becomes more showery in nature towards
the afternoon/evening saturday, with ceilings shifting to
higher-end ifr/mvfr closer to 21z. winds shift from e-ne to
w-nw, likely around 15-18z and beyond. gusts up to around 25
knots are possible through the late evening hours tonight.



&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
710 pm edt fri may 22 2026

.key messages...

- rain returns tomorrow morning. locally heavy rainfall around an
inch or greater is possible from monroe to port huron.

- warming trend next week with temperatures back to normal values.

&&

.aviation...

coastal gulf low will be kicked northward through the central great
lakes tonight and saturday. strong model consensus has developed
bringing a widespread and relatively long duration rain event to the
taf sites after 08-09z tonight. compact 850mb frontogenetic axis is
forecasted to develop and pivot northward through the metro detroit
and into the thumb between 11-20z saturday. ifr conditions with
ceiling heights and visibility restrictions are anticipated with the
potential for heavy rainfall. low confidence in embedded
thunderstorm occurrence and will keep out of the tafs this issuance.
persistence of low stratus is expected late saturday afternoon as
deep low circulation will maintain deformation forcing across the
region.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000ft tonight and saturday.

* low for ceilings and visibilities to fall to 200ft or 1/2sm
saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 308 pm edt fri may 22 2026

discussion...

upper ridging and western extension of the canadian surface high
pressure will maintain dry conditions through remainder of the today
period. soundings showing some mixing into 25-30 knots within the
easterly low level flow through the afternoon, which should keep
gust potential to around 25 knots. increasing gradient flow into
this evening will allow for winds to remain elevated into tonight.

increasing gradient will be associated with a southern stream wave
and low pressure system lifting towards the ohio river valley out of
the ark-la-tex. this system is expected to bring the next round of
likely rainfall to southeast michigan ramping up towards midnight
and beyond with increasing isentropic ascent ahead of the surface
low. lack of instability and steep lapse rates will preclude mention
of thunderstorms for most of the area aside from the port huron to
monroe corridor. a favorable zone of 850-700mb fgen lifts across the
area tonight through tomorrow morning with pwats climbing to near or
around 1.50 inches. this will support a swath of higher localized
rainfall amounts exceeding an inch by the end of tomorrow, which is
also tied to the area of low thunder potential. there remains some
solutions with this higher swath holding just to the east in canada.
still a high chance for average amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches
across the cwa. the general track of the low targets still targets
the port huron to monroe corridor with higher end potential.

the surface low passes right through southeast michigan tomorrow
afternoon and evening. rainfall chances will gradually decrease with
its progression later in the day as best forcing is drawn northward.
winds will remain elevated through tomorrow afternoon until weaker
winds prevail and flow flips westerly in the wake of the low by
tomorrow night. there will a brief break in precipitation sunday
morning before rain chances increase again sunday afternoon as a
secondary wave and front move through. nbm temps on sunday likely
too high and probably more towards more normal values around 70
degrees given the rain chances, cloud cover, and weaker thermal
advection.

high pressure spreads across the region bringing a period of drier
weather early to mid week with a better signal for above normal
temperatures with upper 70s to low-mid 80s. troughing across eastern
canada during this time does offer some glancing shortwaves that
could produce some chances for rain. at this time, chances will be
low until there is higher confidence in timing and occurrence.

marine...

strong high pressure is building over eastern canada this evening as
low pressure lifts up from the ohio valley tonight. this will
further increase the easterly pressure gradient, allowing winds to
gust to 25 to 30 knots into saturday. small craft advisories are in
effect for all nearshore waters.

the low pressure system will also bring widespread rain showers and
a chance of thunderstorms to the central great lakes tonight and
saturday. the low will weaken and dissipate late saturday into
saturday night over lake huron, leading to lighter winds for the
second half of the weekend. however, another upper-level disturbance
will bring a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over
lake erie and lake st. clair on sunday.

high pressure returns monday and slips east into the mid-atlantic
states on tuesday, maintaining generally light winds.

hydrology...

a round of steady soaking rainfall is forecast to spread across
southeast mi from south to north tomorrow morning as low pressure
lifts across the ohio valley and eventually through southeast
michigan. forecast rainfall totals range generally between a quarter
inch and three quarter inch during this event. locally higher
rainfall totals of an inch or greater are possible from monroe to
port huron. hourly rainfall rates on the order of a tenth to one
quarter of an inch per hour are expected. overall dry conditions for
much of the area over the past 30 days suggests the potential for
flooding is low, aside from typical isolated flood prone locations
in the urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through saturday evening for miz048-049-055-
063.

beach hazards statement through saturday morning for miz083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt saturday for lhz422.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...aa
marine.......sf
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.