Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
837
fxus61 kcle 051155
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
655 am est thu feb 5 2026

.what has changed...
an extreme cold watch has been issued for erie and crawford
counties, pa for potential minimum wind chills of -20f to -30f.
the watch is in effect from 1 am to 12 pm est this saturday.
widespread accumulating snow, heavy at times, is still expected
affect our entire region tonight through friday evening.

&&

.key messages...
1.) patchy to areas of freezing fog are expected this morning.
will continue to monitor trends in nwp guidance and weather obs
for the potential need of a freezing fog advisory.

2.) primarily below-normal temperatures are expected through
this monday. widespread sub-zero minimum wind chills are still
forecast this saturday and sunday, respectively.

3.) periods of snow are expected tonight through this weekend. also,
gusty northwesterly winds are expected friday afternoon into friday
night with areas of blowing snow.

4.) temperatures should rebound to near normal values next week
tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
clear sky and weak or calm surface winds have allowed a
surface-based layer of air to cool to supersaturation via
radiational cooling in some locales. this has resulted in
isolated freezing fog formation given air temperatures and
surface temperatures are well below 32f in the fog. freezing fog
may expand in coverage through daybreak this morning, which may
prompt the issuance of a freezing fog advisory. will continue
to monitor this situation closely. any fog is expected to
dissipate via diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
during the mid or late morning hours of today.

key message 2...
net troughing aloft, associated with an abnormally-cold air
mass, remains entrenched over eastern canada. this trough will
impact at least most of the eastern united states through this
monday night, including northern oh and nw pa, as the s`ward
extent of the trough fluctuates. mainly below-normal
temperatures are expected to persist in our cwa. for context,
our normal highs are near 35f and normal lows are near 20f this
time of year. at the surface, a ridge continues to exit e`ward
before two cold fronts, arguably, sweep se`ward through our cwa
on friday. the first front should traverse our region friday
afternoon through early evening, while an arctic front should
traverse our region friday evening. low-level waa on the
backside of the ridge should allow our highs to reach the lower
to mid 20`s this afternoon. lows should reach the 10f to 20f
range this evening before readings begin to moderate somewhat
around and especially after midnight, via strengthening low-
level waa. on friday, daytime highs are expected to reach the
mid 20`s to mid 30`s before the first cold front passage results
in a slight temperature drop. behind the arctic front, an
arctic ridge and associated much colder air temperatures should
affect our region through monday night as the core of the ridge
moves from the northern great plains toward new england. for
example, low temperatures should reach the single digits on
either side of 0f around daybreak saturday morning and sunday
morning, respectively, when widespread sub-zero minimum wind
chills are expected. a cold weather advisory for northern oh and
an upgrade from extreme cold watch to warning for nw pa will
likely be needed overnight friday night into saturday morning,
when the coldest wind chills (near -15f to -30f) should occur.

key message 3...
snow:

odds favor fair weather today as the aforementioned surface
ridge continues to exit e`ward. periods of widespread snow, steady
at times, are expected to overspread our region generally from
northwest to southeast tonight and then persist through friday
evening due to the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of a
se`ward-moving shortwave trough axis aloft and the release of at
least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km agl via
convergence/moist ascent along the first cold front and especially
the arctic front. based on trends in higher-res nwp model guidance,
we are growing increasingly concerned that a narrow band of heavy
graupel and/or snow will accompany the arctic front passage friday
evening as the aforementioned frontal forcing for ascent and release
of potential instability result in strong, maximized ascent at cloud
temperatures near 8c to 12c below zero and amidst 0-1 km agl mean
wind speeds around 20 to 30 knots. thus, snow squalls are a concern.
the widespread snowfall is still expected to total primarily 1 to 4
inches in our cwa. the greatest totals should be focused in the
higher terrain of ne oh and nw pa, where localized totals up to 5 or
6 inches are possible. this is where snow should be enhanced by
moist nw`erly upslope flow for as long as several hours behind the
first cold front and before the arctic front ushers-in a much drier
low/mid-level air mass. future trends in our official forecast may
prompt the issuance of a winter weather advisory, especially in ne
oh and nw pa.

during friday night through this sunday, periodic and scattered lake-
effect snow (les) showers should target our cwa amidst a nnw`erly to
nw`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air
over/downwind of the ice-free waters of lake huron and possible gaps
in lake erie`s ice cover. given the expectation of extensive ice
cover on lake huron and especially lake erie, les intensity and
amounts should be limited. note: a shortwave trough embedded in
nw`erly flow aloft may generate widespread light snow across our cwa
saturday night into sunday. current odds favor dry weather sunday
night through monday night amidst stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the aforementioned ridge.

wind and blowing snow:

nw`erly surface winds are expected to be around 20 to 25 mph
sustained and gust up to 30 to 45 mph behind friday`s cold front
passages. steep low-level lapse rates and rather deep mechanical
mixing of the boundary layer amidst low-level winds and caa
increasing with height will promote these gusty winds. wind
gusts should begin to subside during the wee hours of saturday
morning and ease significantly by daybreak amidst a relaxing
mslp gradient. trends in nwp model guidance will continue to be
monitored for the potential need of a wind advisory (peak gust
criteria: 46-57 mph). note: these nw`erly surface winds are
expected to result in blowing and drifting of freshly-fallen
snow.

key message 4...
during next week tuesday through wednesday, the surface ridge
should exit e`ward as the ridging aloft, associated with a
warmer air mass, overspreads our region from the west.
accordingly, daytime highs should reach mainly the mid 30`s to
lower 40`s each day. overnight lows tuesday night should reach
mainly the lower to mid 20`s. current odds favor dry weather on
tuesday courtesy of stabilizing subsidence accompanying the
ridge. periods of snow and/or rain are possible tuesday night
through wednesday as subtle shortwave disturbances ripple
generally e`ward through the ridge aloft.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
a couple of layers of low stratus out there this morning, but
not all terminals are affected. where the stratus does exist,
figure it will take several hours for these clouds to dissipate,
if they do at all. also could see a couple of hours of
visibilities go down with sunrise to ifr or possibly worse,
lifting after 15z or so. this would be for mainly away from
lake erie, although cle has the potential for this as well. an
alberta clipper diving southeastward into the great lakes brings
snow potential after 10z friday to all terminals except for
fdy/mfd with this issuance. winds become southwest/southerly
less than 10kts.

outlook...non-vfr likely friday evening as the clipper system
continues to bring snow to the area. northwest wind gusts of
30-35 knots will be possible friday evening through saturday
morning.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains primarily ice covered and is expected to
remain this way for the foreseeable future. an alberta clipper
system brings a stout cold front friday evening and winds
becoming northwesterly approaching gale force for the central
and western basins. into saturday morning. some compaction of
ice may occur during these conditions near the shoreline.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...extreme cold watch from late friday night through saturday
morning for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
785
fxus63 kiwx 051039
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
539 am est thu feb 5 2026

.key messages...
- scattered snow showers are expected this afternoon with a
light dusting of accumulation possible.

- a period of freezing drizzle is possible tonight but
confidence in area, intensity and impacts is very low.

- around an inch of snow is expected friday morning, with
additional light lake effect friday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am est thu feb 5 2026

next shortwave to impact our cwa is currently digging into the
arrowhead of minnesota on the cyclonically sheared side of a 140+ kt
jet at 300mb. this jet streak and attendant trough will tend to get
sheared out as they dive southeast and interact with broad southeast
conus trough. a modest surge of 280-285k system-relative isentropic
ascent is noted over our area this afternoon with the best ascent in
our n/ne counties. still, the llj and associated theta-e advection
is relatively weak considering the degree of dry air in place.
expect a brief window of some light snow showers 18-00z but they
will remain scattered and any accumulation will be a dusting at
best. will hold pop`s in the mid chance category and lower qpf/snow
to a tenth or two. stratus leading to another challenging temp
forecast but expect overcast skies to rule the day with highs in the
low/mid 20s. still think there is some potential for freezing
drizzle tonight. a more lackluster moisture profile from shearing
initial wave does raise some doubts, especially early in the
evening given limited near-surface omega and some hints of residual
dry air. however, several hi-res models show moisture advection
increasing through the night ahead of the next clipper system.
better mid/upper level saturation does occur by 09z fri with the
arrival of this shortwave but there does appear to be a few hour
window where there will be sufficient moisture advection/weak ascent
without ice nucleation. will therefore maintain some freezing
drizzle mention, but confidence in duration, area, and impacts
is low and no headlines planned at this time.

friday`s wave still appears to start a little stronger and will not
have the shearing influence of the southeast conus trough. it
features stronger isentropic upglide, better moisture convergence
and a better fgen signal. the only negative is that the window for
good ascent is very short, likely only a few hours on either side of
15z (earlier nw/later se). a quick inch or so is likely for most
areas with the best chance for slightly higher amounts still east of
i-69 but synoptic precip ends everywhere by 18z and highs climb into
the mid 30s given strong waa. this will likely limit impact on the
roads, especially given increasing sun angle in feb. some lake
response is expected fri afternoon through sat morning as caa ramps
up behind the wave. fetch is good with a large northerly component
but streamlines show an origin over the western u.p./wisconsin
limiting good superior connection. inversion heights are also not
great (around 5 kft at best) with increasing dry air entrainment and
limited theta-e lapse rates as the night goes on. expect some sct
snow showers in our nw zones with some localized amounts of an inch
or two possible (mainly la porte county) but overall limited
scope/impacts. sat morning will also be cold away from the lake
clouds with lows near zero and wind chills near -10f.

a more substantial warmup still appears possible next week. cold,
deep snowpack will modulate highs quite a bit, especially if
dewpoints stay below freezing, but a run at 40f is possible. there
will also be increasing precip chances by the middle of next week.
precip types may be something to watch here with abundant waa aloft
and surface temps stuck around freezing but details remain very
uncertain at this time range.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 538 am est thu feb 5 2026

a couple of vort maxes slide southeastward affecting the area over
the course of this taf period. the first begins affecting the area
during the morning to midday hours today. looking at dew point
depressions, they aren`t all that bad at between 3 and 7 degrees
with the lowest actually occuring closer to sbn at around 18z
although it wouldn`t be too long before fwa saw precip as well and
it would start as snow. only up to around 0.5 inch snow accums are
expected with this wave. this evening, dgz saturation dries out so
ptypes would probably become more freezing-drizzly, but this
requires ample lift in the cloud layer, which is still in question.
it is a little bit more uncertain how long the drizzle would last
and if it could dry out/weaken. the next wave arrives friday morning
with renewed dgz saturation meaning ptypes would turn to snow again.
friday sees the greater snow accumulation totals.

low stratus has hung tough overnight, but arriving cirrus clouds has
begun eroding them from the west. we`ll have a period of vfr cigs
before the the system arrives during the midday to afternoon period
when mvfr conditions return.

wind-wise, trajectories look to stay out of the southwest through
the period. a llj begins to move into the area during the daytime,
but low level lapse rates are relatively weak limiting mixing and
probably keeping gusts below 20 kts. therefore, sustained winds will
be capped in the upper single digits to mid teens of kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
423
fxus63 kdtx 051517
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1017 am est thu feb 5 2026

.key messages...

- occasional light snow this afternoon through friday morning, with
total accumulations of an inch or two.

- a few snow squalls are possible late friday, as northwest winds
ramp up and gust 30-40 mph. temperatures reaching or slightly
exceeding freezing friday afternoon will plummet friday evening and
night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 f range saturday morning.

- wind chills around 15 degrees below zero are likely saturday
morning before a modest warming trend occurs over the weekend.

&&

.update...

no critical changes to the grids. will increase pops for the
afternoon and evening but maintain inherited snow accumulations.
period of 286-300ks isentropic ascent will push southeastward
through the area between 18-00z. plan view of relative humidity
shows low level dry air eventually saturating/getting squeezed out
across all of the forecast area in time for the evening commute.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 656 am est thu feb 5 2026

aviation...

mvfr ceilings with pockets of vfr conditions have spread across the
terminals ahead of the incoming snowfall now moving into northern
lower michigan. have bumped timing up a little based on radar
trends, especially across the northern terminals. a few lighter snow
showers may precede a slight uptick in snowfall intensity late this
morning across the north and during the afternoon across the south.
some uncertainty as to coverage or intensity of snow showers and
flurries late afternoon into tonight, but will maintain vfr snow
showers with continued mvfr ceilings. southwest winds do pick up in
the afternoon with gusts to around 20 knots before easing in the
evening. another round of more intense snowfall will arrive late in
this taf period (08z-09z friday) with possible ifr conditions to
accompany this round of snow.

for dtw... the initial round of light snow arrives this afternoon
with some signs of weakening with approach to dtw this afternoon.
there will be potential for breaks in light snow/flurries late this
afternoon and evening. another round of more intense snowfall
arrives towards 08-09z friday morning with possible ifr conditions.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today and tonight.

* high for snow this afternoon.

prev discussion...
issued at 240 am est thu feb 5 2026

discussion...

calm winds and clear skies over most of southeast michigan has
allowed the "good radiators" to reach around/below zero. clouds
increasing and thickening this morning should allow temps to rise.

fast upper level northwest flow diving southeast into the great
lakes region, as the 00z raob out of the pas in manitoba indicated
145 knots at 250 mb, which is still just outside the jet core. this
fast flow has sped up the upper level waves tracking through, the
one today and the one late tonight. strengthening low level
southwest-west flow today ahead of the lead wave, but with 850 mb
temps around -9 c, minimal if any moisture impact from lake
michigan. looking more at a top down scenario from the 700 mb
forcing/moisture axis, which pushes in late in the day and specific
humidity is decaying and falling just short of 2 g/kg as it tracks
through southeast michigan during the evening hours. the dry low-
level air will have to saturate as well; a dusting to one inch of
accumulation remains reasonable through the evening hours before mid-
level dry slot arrives. with the potential lack of ice nuclei for a
short period tonight, there is a low chance for some freezing
drizzle/mist, but i am not convinced will there will be sufficent
low-level saturation. the next stronger upper-level wave arrives
late tonight, but there is a significant shift to the west, with the
bulk of the forcing/moisture tracking through illinois. the 500 mb
shortwave trough axis is already sliding south of the border by 15z
friday. because of this westward shift and faster solution, we are
likely only looking at 0.5 to 2 inches of snow. however, the main
arctic front still has to track through late in the day/early
evening. with dew pts in the 20s ahead of this front and some modest
surface-based cape generated, there is some a signal (snsq) for
possible snow squalls as the strong wind fields arrive. confidence
remains high in brief wind gusts of 35+ mph around the frontal
passage time, with temperatures dropping sharply from north to
south. these localized snow showers/squalls could potentially impact
the evening commute.

despite the bulk of the arctic air (-25 c at 850 mb) tracking east
of us through the eastern great lakes friday night, temperatures are
still expected to fall around zero by saturday morning, and with a
modest wind should see wind chills around -15 f, and a cold weather
advisory may be needed.

slow warm advection pattern for the weekend, and an elevated warm
front may become active for the second half of the weekend and
produce a little light snow. however, with the strong high pressure
holding at the surface, nbm pops are just indicating slight-low
chance for now. if the upstream warm front does not produce mid-high
clouds saturday night, good chance for min temps to drop to or below
zero once again.

a big pattern shift looks to be in store next week, with more pseudo
zonal pattern, which should translate to milder temps finally at or
even slightly above normal.

marine...

winds organize out of the southwest today as surface pressure falls
in advance of the next northern stream low. this low will strengthen
as it reaches hudson bay tonight, drawing an initial wave of light
snow into the great lakes as early as this afternoon. higher chances
for snow arrive late tonight and persist through friday as a strong
arctic front drops through lower michigan. this brings a shift to
northwest flow and strong cold advection to support a period of gale
force winds in the post-frontal airmass. gusts of 35 to 40 knots
will be possible with sustained winds briefly capable of reaching
gale force as well. a gale watch is in effect as a result. the cold
airmass also introduces freezing spray concerns, prompting a heavy
freezing spray watch as well for the ice-free waters. high pressure
fills in quickly behind this system for the weekend, supporting
a period of quiet marine weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray watch from friday afternoon through late
friday night for lhz361>363-462.

gale watch from friday afternoon through late friday night for
lhz362-363-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......cb
aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.