Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
712 am edt wed sep 30 2026

.what has changed...
continued the trend of increasing chances for rain showers and
rainfall amounts this evening through tonight.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and pleasant weather continues most of today.

2) light showers are likely this evening and tonight, especially
near the lakeshore, followed by a steady, soaking rain thursday
night into friday.

3) much cooler this weekend into early next week with frost
potential. this period will be mainly dry with a couple of
minor rain chances.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mid/upper water vapor imagery and rap analysis show a changing
weather map this morning. mid/upper ridging is building over the
ohio valley and eastern great lakes ahead of a northern stream
mid/upper trough starting to dig into the northern rockies and a
southern stream closed low over the desert southwest. at the
surface, the high that was over the great lakes since the end of
last week is now centered near the mid atlantic coast and will
continue to drift offshore of the carolinas through thursday.

this is already establishing return southerly flow and resultant
warm air advection. the better pressure gradient will keep light
s winds up just enough this morning to limit fog development to
sheltered valley and lake areas of interior ne ohio and nw pa,
and expect temperatures to rise fairly quickly after sunrise,
topping out in the mid/upper 70s this afternoon. clouds will
increase through the day as mid-level moisture advection and
isentropic ascent ramp up ahead of a warm front, and
deterministic models, most href cams, and the rrfs have all
increased the probabilities for rain showers starting after 21z
this evening near the lakeshore counties. very dry low-levels at
the onset will probably limit this with mainly virga until
tonight, but increased pops to chance/slight chance starting at
21z.

key message 2...
there will be a better chance for light rain showers tonight as
the warm front lifts across the area. some jet support from the
right entrance of a subtle 70+ knot h3 jet streak crossing
southern ontario associated with a mid/upper shortwave cresting
the ridge will focus moisture advection and isentropic ascent
along and north of the warm front. as mentioned above,
deterministic and hi-res guidance are coming into agreement on
light rain, so increased pops and qpf tonight, especially across
the lakeshore counties of northern ohio and nw pa. this could
result in a few hundredths to up to 0.10 inch of rain.

the warm sector will be mainly dry thursday after any lingering
showers depart nw pa in the morning. cannot rule out a few
spotty showers in the afternoon, but the main show will await
the cold front thursday night into friday. in terms of details,
the aforementioned northern stream mid/upper trough will dig
into the northern plains thursday and absorb the remnants of the
old desert southwest cut off low. this will lead to a weak
surface wave developing in the mid mississippi valley and riding
along the cold frontal boundary. this wave and the lingering,
strong mid/upper ridge over the southeast conus will cause the
front to be very slow to sag through the region thursday night
and friday, resulting in a prolonged band of rain showers. the
overall system looks to be weakening as it progresses through
the area since the strongest jet dynamics progress into northern
ontario thursday night, so this will impact how much rain falls.
consensus remains in the range of 0.50 to 0.80 inches of
qpf between thursday night and friday evening given the slow
moving nature of the front and wave, with locally higher amounts
in nw ohio and along the lakeshore possible. however, there
remains some spread in probabilistic guidance on exact totals,
with slightly more or less depending on where the steadiest
band pivots. regardless, it will be a steady, soaking rain
thursday night through much of friday, but no flooding is
expected. this will be beneficial after the recent dry spell.
gradual drying will occur from nw to se friday afternoon, with
all areas drying out friday night and turning much cooler.

key message 3...
the mid/upper longwave trough will establish itself across the
great lakes and northeast conus saturday, with a large canadian
high at the surface building across the great lakes. this will
support dry and cool conditions, with highs only in the mid 60s
and lows well into the 40s away from the lake saturday night. a
strong, reinforcing shortwave trough will drop through the
longwave trough sunday and sunday night, with an associated deep
surface low tracking south of hudson bay. this will drive
another cold front through the region, with an impressive 1030
mb canadian high building from the upper midwest through the
great lakes early next week in the wake of the front. a few
showers are possible in eastern ohio and western pa with the
front sunday, and possibly lingering lake-effect showers in nw
pa sunday night and monday before the high builds in, but the
big story will be the cool fall airmass. highs in the mid/upper
60s sunday will cool into the upper 50s to near 60 monday and
tuesday. lows in the 30s look increasingly likely monday night,
so frost headlines are possible away from the lake monday night
into tuesday morning.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr is expected through the taf period with high
clouds increasing in coverage throughout the day today. light
rain showers will move across mainly the northern portion of
the forecast area this evening into tonight. visibility should
mainly stay above 6 sm with ceilings mostly above 5 kft.

south to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected
through the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr likely with rain showers thursday night
through friday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
s winds will increase to 10-15 knots early this morning then
decrease to 5-10 knots by this afternoon, before increasing
again to 10-20 knots tonight and thursday morning while
gradually becoming more sw behind a warm front. this will lead
to choppy conditions in the open waters. lighter sw winds of
5-10 knots thursday evening will become nnw at 10-20 knots by
friday morning behind a cold front then ne at near or over
15-20 knots friday night into early saturday. small craft
headlines are possible friday night and saturday. winds will
gradually flip around to s saturday night and wnw while
increasing again late sunday as another cold front approaches.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...saunders
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 301224
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
824 am edt wed sep 30 2026

.key messages...

- increasing chances (40-80%) for showers today along and mainly
north of us 24 , best potential will remain near lake mi in
the mid-late afternoon. highs will be in the upper 60s, low
70s for those areas. south of us 24 expect highs in the mid-
upper 70s with increasing clouds.

- rain chances (40-90%) spread eastward through friday, with
isolated thunderstorm potential (non-severe). highs will be in
the 70s, low 80s on thursday and the 60s friday.

- dry conditions are expected this weekend into early next
week, with highs in the 60s, low 70s (warmest further south).
overnight lows will drop into the 40s.

&&

.update...
issued at 819 am edt wed sep 30 2026

made some minor tweaks to mainly pops this morning into this
afternoon. initial area of returns is encountering a fairly dry
airmass, resulting in little more than some sprinkles making it
to the ground. with time as saturation continues some light to
maybe locally moderate rain will settle into mainly far nw areas
near/after 15z and then most likely linger into the afternoon as
high pressure tries to hold on. qpf will likely remain below
0.10". questions exist as to how far se this initial surge of
isentropic lift will make it. will continue to sort out those
details in the coming hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 345 am edt wed sep 30 2026

not a whole lot of changes to the going forecast. rain showers
continue over northern il into central mi this morning with the
band of showers on the northwest periphery of ridging further
south and east which will mainly keep the introduction of rain
showers for areas closer to lake michigan into this afternoon
as the lower levels further moisten. wpc has a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for later today and as the ridging pushes
further south and east rain showers will make their way further
south and east through friday morning with a slight risk for
excessive rainfall for tomorrow. a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible with the southern and eastward push but at this
time severe weather is not anticipated.

a more zonal aloft pattern emerges across the region this
weekend and will bring a return to dry conditions and cooler
temperatures especially into the beginning of next week when
highs will only get to around 60 degrees both monday and
tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 611 am edt wed sep 30 2026

light rain showers currently observed on latest radar imagery
starting to push into northwest in with some of the showers
making it to the surface. these showers are on the
northwestern periphery of ridging in place further south and
east. showers look to remain light as the showers push further
southward over mainly areas near lake michigan and into ksbn, so
at this time think conditions will mainly remain vfr however
some slight reductions in vsbys due to rain showers may allow
for mvfr vsbys but at this time confidence remains low. at this
time kfwa looks to remain dry with the ridging in place over
south and eastern portions of the cwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
702 am edt wed sep 30 2026

.key messages...

- light rain chances gradually rise from west to east today.

- muggier thursday as the coverage and intensity of rainfall
increases; locally heavy rain is possible.

- turning cooler and drier over the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high cloud observed this morning will gradually lower from west to
east this afternoon-evening as a tropical moisture axis progresses
and brings rain showers into the airspace. vfr is expected to
persist through early afternoon across all of se michigan before
cigs begin to lower first at mbs and then the rest of the airspace.
mbs will see the greatest coverage of rain and lowest ceilings by
tonight, where ifr my just graze the terminal. highest probabilities
of ifr however are centered over northern michigan. elsewhere,
cigs/vsbys fluctuate between low vfr and mvfr as waves of rain
attempt to saturate a persistent sub-cloud layer. the most likely
timeframe for restrictions will be after 00z tonight as a warm front
lifts into the airspace and organizes a band of showers and possibly
a few embedded thunderstorms overhead. limited instability keeps
thunder chances low however. moisture holds steady over the region
into thursday morning to keep sub-5.0 kft agl cloud around to end
the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...low potential for thunderstorms forecast this
evening and overnight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through 18z. medium 18z
through the end of the taf period.

* low for thunderstorms this evening and overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 404 am edt wed sep 30 2026

discussion...

the blocked/stable synoptic pattern over the great lakes has begun
to break down early this morning. prior ridging continues to flatten
and fold into northeastern conus, trailing the early week coastal
system`s departure. meanwhile, much longer wavelength disturbances
upstream are tracking zonally across central canada and southern
conus. southeast michigan will be positioned between these two waves
through the rest of the week, eventually leading to periods of
rainfall. at present, leading geopotential height falls have
overspread lower michigan, marked by a thickening canopy of cirrus
aloft. the southern stream wave/closed-low absorbed what remains of
eastern pacific hurricane polo leading to the advection of an
equatorial airmass from the four corners region up to james bay.

the distribution of saturation is currently skewed toward the upper
levels as top-down moistening ramps up over the next 12 hours. given
that the column has been abnormally dry since last thursday (see
kdtx raobs since 24.12z), it will take time to prime the low levels
and achieve adequate saturation depths before rainfall becomes more
prevalent. latest mosaic radar imagery shows a sharp cutoff to the
rain edge, currently confined to areas west of a chicago to gaylord
line. the swath of rainfall should migrate eastward throughout the
day as the theta-e ridge rolls southeast by this afternoon as
embedded shortwave energy gets deflected away from the higher
amplitude northern stream wave. the majority of 00z/06z solutions
depict some degree of measurable precipitation for most areas by 00z
this evening. the lowest confidence in this initial round of diurnal
showers continues for locations along/south of i-94 where saturation
processes are the most delayed.

the axis of persistent tropical moisture advection drifts over lower
michigan thursday amidst a shifting deformation zone and reinforcing
cva. this unfolds as the southern stream low starts to open/phase
with the deeper continental wave to the north. expect longer and
more continuous periods of rainfall as thursday progresses with
notably muggier conditions. surface dewpoints easily climb into the
mid 60s, if not upper 60s, while 850 mb temperatures rise into the
upper teens (celsius). pwats respond accordingly, climbing above
1.75 inches for some areas, which raises the prospect for localized
heavy rainfall (see hydrology discussion). from a stability
perspective, the thunder threat appears quite low given the warm
advection scheme, before an approaching cold front extending from
the ontario surface reflection slowly tracks through the region.

aggressive post-frontal system-relative isentropic downglide leads
to a quick conclusion to showers, before the midday hours friday. n
northwest flow arrives downstream of 1027 mb high pressure over the
upper midwest. seasonably cool and dry though the weekend.

marine...

south to southwest winds will slowly increase ahead of the next
cold front, which arrives and stalls over southern lower michigan on
thursday. with warm advection leading to more stable profiles
and showers moving through during this timeframe, wind gusts are
expected to top out only around 25 knots. with the front hung up
into thursday night, the post frontal cold advection now looks
slower; thus, the potential for northwest wind gusts reaching or
exceeding 25 knots looks to be late in the day on friday as 850
mb temps lower into the mid single digits by friday.

another large area of high pressure building in on friday night and
saturday will promote light winds for the first half of the weekend.
a stronger low tracking through the northern great lakes for the
second half of the weekend brings another opportunity for winds to
reach or exceed 25 knots over lake huron.

hydrology...

the transport of tropical moisture into southern michigan and an
approaching cold front will lead to expanding rainfall today into
friday. the heaviest rain is forecast to occur between thursday
afternoon and friday morning. there is medium confidence in total
rainfall between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. a band of more persistent rain
is likely to become established across the area, with positioning
currently favored north of i-69. within the model probability space,
there is a chance for rainfall to exceed 2 inches in areas which
experience the more persistent rainfall, suggesting at least a
chance of minor flooding.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf
hydrology....sc/kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.