Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
769
fxus61 kcle 091400
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1000 am edt mon mar 9 2026

.what has changed...
increased forecast high temperatures for this late afternoon and
decreased surface dew points through this early evening based
on latest trends in observations and model guidance. expect
abundant sunshine, relatively-deep diurnal convective mixing of
the boundary layer amidst late afternoon 850 mb temperatures
near 8c to 11c, low-level waa, and a fairly tight se`erly mslp
gradient on the synoptic-scale to allow late afternoon highs to
reach the mid 60`s to lower 70`s in most of our cwa. near-record
warm highs are now forecast in parts of our cwa today, especially
roughly along and west of i-71. the deeper diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer will tap into drier air just aloft
through this late afternoon, which will result in somewhat lower
surface dew points and rh values than forecast previously.

&&

.key messages...
1) warm, breezy conditions, and periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall as well as a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible
tuesday night into wednesday. rain may briefly transition over
to snow wednesday night into thursday.

2) a clipper system will track east across the great lakes on
friday which may bring a chance for rain and snow to the local
area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level trough will track from the central plains into
the ohio valley and great lakes region midweek. a warm front
will lift across the area on tuesday. a surface developing low
pressure system will track from the midwest and across the
southern great lakes region.

scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with with mid-
level frontogenesis will be the first round convection to impact
the region tuesday evening into overnight. instability will be
moderately unstable with deep layer shear to support some hail
potential, perhaps some damaging wind gusts as well. our area
will be in the warm sector on wednesday. pre-frontal
thunderstorms are expected during the day wednesday. the wind
field will be very strong to support organized severe
convection. the question that remains is how much instablilty
will be available to materialize due to morning showers and
considerable cloud cover. confidence in thunderstorms and
subsequent severe weather is more likely the farther south and
east you go within our forecast area.

heavy rainfall is likely during the midweek time frame. the
average qpf will be around 1.25-1.5" tuesday night through
wednesday evening. high-end localized amounts up to 2" could be
possible. localized nuisance flooding is possible. the cold
front will move through early wednesday evening. the rain
showers mad end with some wet snowflakes wednesday night.

key message 2...
a rather strong clipper system will track quickly eastward
through the upper great lakes on friday. this end of the week
system may bring a round of light rain and snow to the local
area with strong gusty winds. although some uncertainty exists
in the strength of the system, confidence is increasing for
potential wind gusts to reach at least 40 mph or higher.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with deterioration to mvfr
ceilings towards the end of the taf period, associated with low
ceilings. some drizzle and/or light rain shower activity may
accompany the lower ceilings. potential also exists for lower
ceilings (ifr), particularly along and west of the i-71
corridor, and may need to be included in future taf packages.

winds are generally out of the south to southwest early
this morning, 10 to 12 knots. winds will increase to 15 to 18
knots later this morning and afternoon with periodic gusts of 25
to 28 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely with showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow wednesday night into thursday. non-vfr may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on friday combined with gusty
southwest winds.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions will persist through tuesday with
generally offshore flow around 10 to 15 knots. will continue to
monitor the potential for some organized thunderstorms tuesday night
into wednesday for strong wind and hail potential, particularly
across the western basin of lake erie. otherwise, southwest winds
will increase to around 20 knots wednesday afternoon, shifting
towards the northwest and briefly increasing to 20 to 25 knots
wednesday night behind a cold front. the next period of concern
across the region will be on friday as a strong clipper system moves
east through the great lakes, ushering in south to southwest winds
of 25 to 30 knots across lake erie. winds may briefly touch gale at
times friday morning and afternoon and will continue to be
monitored.

above average temperatures and elevated winds will result in
continued shifting and decay of ice across lake erie through mid-
week.

&&

.climate...
high temperatures are forecast to approach records today and tuesday,
march 10th. here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate
sites for march 9th and 10th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-09 68(2021) 71(2016) 73(1878) 73(2016) 73(2016) 74(2000)
03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77/jaszka
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
197
fxus63 kiwx 091731
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
131 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

.key messages...

- warming temperatures early this week with record or near-
record high temperatures today and tuesday.

- an enhanced risk of severe storms, mainly late tuesday
afternoon into the overnight hours tuesday night. all severe
hazards are possible late tuesday afternoon into the early
overnight, eventually transitioning to a heavy rain/flooding
threat late in the night.

- a frontal boundary across the region will interact with
several other systems for periodic chances of rain and snow
late week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

strong warm advection helps take our temperatures up to the mid 60s
to low 70s today allowing temperature records to be in play. a theta-
e plume comes in this afternoon and continues to increase through
tuesday afternoon. due to some low level moisture and an attempt at
trying to get some mid level instability in here, will continue a
low pop mention of rain, which could be drizzle, but will at least
be low stratus that continues into early tuesday and this could
affect the chance for record warm temperatures being observed
tuesday as well.

there is model agreement on bringing a vort max through the
area around or just after 18z and this may be enough to up- end
the lingering moisture and allow for some surface heating.
during this time, a frontal boundary is sinking southeastward
towards the in/mi border and a low pressure system is traversing
northeast towards the area. large scale ascent will probably
have enough lift to cause showers/storms by that point (around
00z). this is also around when a low level jet arrives. the
boundary parallel winds will allow for a tendency towards linear
cell structures, but given that the boundary will be arriving
during the day, wouldn`t be surprised to see initial discrete
structures as well. better effective shear (30+ kts) and
helicity arrives after 00z and instability will have a chance to
form during the afternoon with 60 degree dew points working
their way into southern portions of the area around 00z.
meanwhile, it is also being modeled that we`ll also have an eml
(mid level lapse rates 7+ c/km) to work with as long as it`s not
tainted upon advection up here. given these parameters in
place, all hazards will be in play so that`s damaging winds,
large hail, tornadoes, and flooding. we already have a few
rivers in action stage from the previous storm moving through
southern lower mi. in addition to boundary- parallel flow,
slowing mbe vectors overnight main contribute to the
backbuilding/training potential of storms, all making flooding
more possible.

the cold front slowly moves eastward arriving in the i-69 corridor
around 18z. so, there is some question about if we`ll be able to
remove moisture from lingering rain and recover instability in here
in time for thunderstorms to start that far west. spc has their
marginal risk for severe weather on wednesday starting right over
our eastern counties. the vort finally pushing the cold air into the
area has more of a west to east trajectory as opposed to north to
south meaning the cold will be more transitory and have less
moisture to allow for a kind of ana-frontal snow period wednesday
night. temperatures do look to fall back into the 20s wednesday
night though and highs on thursday look to fall back towards
climatological averages, in the 40s.

with the cooler air in mind, attention turns to thursday night/
friday morning when interaction between vort maxes attempting
to phase causes deepening of a low pressure system over the
great lakes. temperatures thursday night appear more marginal,
but perhaps they would have to come down a little from what we
have in there, ranging through the 30s. at the very least, some
mix of snow and rain would be possible. additionally, a strong
low level jet moving through early friday may be enough to make
it breezy to gusty. currently have 30 kt gusts in the forecast,
but the timing of the jet will be key to getting higher gusts
because mismatched mixing and jet passage may limit gusts.

the friday system leaves behind a baroclinic boundary that the
weekend (probably sunday) system will be able to ride along and
develop. coupled jets are currently modeled as being able to help
deepening and development of a system that tracks from il into mi,
which would point to a rain system. track and modeling that far out
can still change between now and then, especially with a baroclinic
boundary in play. the placement of that will be important.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1221 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

focus will be in the second half of the period as waa and a weak
wave result in the formation of mvfr (possibly ifr) stratus,
some 2-5sm fog/mist and maybe some drizzle. have added a
mention to both sites but not overly aggressive at this point.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
813
fxus63 kdtx 091650
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1250 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

.key messages...

- ample sun and very warm today.

- isolated showers possible tuesday, becoming wetter with rising
thunderstorm potential tuesday night into wednesday. the potential
exists for severe storms early wednesday morning.

- rain showers change over to melting snow showers by wednesday night
with minimal accumulations.

- a clipper system may produce wintry precipitation friday.

&&

.aviation...

se michigan resides in the transition zone between low pressure to
the north and high pressure anchored over the atlantic. this leads
to a tight southwest gradient with sustained wind speeds of 15-20
knots and gusts up to 30 knots that subside by this evening.
generally clear skies persist through the rest of the daylight hours
ahead of a surge of low level moisture that drops ceilings toward low
mvfr/ifr early tuesday morning. this moisture surge intersects with
a backdoor cold front tuesday morning, triggering scattered shower
coverage invof the front. the frontal passage causes winds to quickly
shift to the northeast, and will trap/lower the stratus deck for the
rest of the taf period as the inversion strengthens. a low chance
for showers/drizzle persists after 14z, but with lower confidence as
the front moves south of the airspace and cuts off instability.

for dtw...ceilings quickly drop from vfr tonight to low mvfr/ifr
early tuesday morning. a cold front moving south reaches dtw around
15z tuesday, shifting winds to the northeast. increasing shower
chances exist ahead of the frontal passage (10-14z tuesday), and
cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with this activity.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tuesday morning and
afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms tuesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 322 am edt mon mar 9 2026

discussion...

straight zonal flow over the northern plains into southern canada
today will result in broad southwesterly flow across much of
southern lower michigan and aid in the development of a stationary
front south of the straits down to saginaw bay. consistent model
signal continues with clear skies today and temperatures warming
into the middle to upper 60s, approximately 25 degrees above normal.
decent model signal in low level, 925-700mb, thetae advection into
southern lower michigan. the moisture advection is expected to both
increase clouds tonight and reinforce the stationary front a little
farther south, somewhere between i 69 and saginaw bay to begin the
day tuesday.

significant uncertainty exists on potential high temperatures for
tuesday. question comes down to how aggressive the backdoor marine
release will be monday evening and the prevalence of clouds during
the daytime tuesday. nbm 5.0 25th percentile suggests 40s for the
northern third of the cwa and lower to middle 60s south of m 59,
whereas the 75th percentile has middle 50s to lower 60s for the tri
cities/flint and middle to upper 70s for metro detroit. the forecast
resides with cooler temperatures near lake huron and saginaw bay
with a northeast wind.

merging of northern and southern stream upper level jet axes will
then force a frontal wave and surface low pressure reflection
through lower michigan late tuesday night. there are a number of
concerns for the tuesday night period.

1. potential for isolated slippery spots due to freezing rain across
midland and bay counties and far northern thumb. tricky forecast
with regards to freezing rain potential for portions of midland,
bay, saginaw, tuscola and huron counties tues evening/night because
of the significant warm air advection that is forecasted to occur.
model soundings show temperatures as warm as 13.5c at 2.7 kft agl
providing heat content to the rain droplets. there does appear to be
some feedback/contamination of lake huron ice cover on surface
temperatures immediately downstream of the lake. there is low
confidence that the very shallow subfreezing layer will be able to
persist. the forecast continues to reside on the warm side and will
need to be monitored.

2. the potential for severe weather early wednesday morning with
likely thunderstorm activity. differences exist but both the
deterministic 3km nam and the hrdps support the surface warm front
lifting in vicinity of washtenaw county and metro detroit between 07-
12z wednesday. forecast soundings support very strong static
stability for a greater portion of the forecast area, but neutral
stability to convectively unstable conditions will be possible along
and south of the front. will need more cam data inside of the window
to get a better handle on storm mode and potential severe weather
threats. at this point, a long hodograph and convective available
potential energy to 1000 j/kg suggests strong wind gusts/large
hail/and a tornado threat for those areas along and to the south of
the warm front. legit surface low and nose to +50 knot low level jet
brings a strongly forced event. the latest day 2 outlook issued by
spc has a slight risk designation for severe weather south and west
of a line from howell to monroe and marginal risk for much of the
area including, saginaw, port huron and metro detroit.

3. placement of heavy rainfall axis and qpf amounts. with the
significant warm air advection and low level jet forcing pwats are
forecasted to reach 1.40 inches wednesday morning which is at the
daily maximum for dtx raob data. nbm 5.0 data supports widespread
rain with the interquartile range between .75 inch and 1.75 inch
with highest amounts across the south. the biggest question is
whether or not a favorable corridor will set up for any training
convection. need to get the event window with the cam solutions but
collection of mpas runs suggests convection will be relatively
progressive. wpc has designated all of the area as a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall.

composite trough axis and associated absolute vorticity continues
height falls into the late wednesday period. model data supports a
period of deformation forcing that should result in a changeover to
snow for the evening period. the potential exists for a minor snow
accumulation across bay and midland counties wednesday evening and
melting snow for most areas.

dynamic pacific shortwave continues to be advertised for lower
michigan friday. depth of saturation, environmental profile of the
front, and projected uvvs through 700-500mb and the dgz suggests
accumulating snow for a portion of the forecast area. pops currently
reside in the 50 to 70% range.

marine...

southwesterly winds quickly restrengthen early this morning as a
second low slides along the far northern shore of lake superior.
overall setup is similar to sunday though with stronger warm
advection resulting in more neutral to stable overlake thermal
profiles. this further limits sporadic gale potential over central
lake huron with 25-30kt gusts more likely (20-25kt winds over the
rest of the region). a diffuse pressure gradient sets up across the
central great lakes by late today as the secondary low reaches
northern quebec allowing winds to turn lighter through tuesday.
active pattern and stronger flow return by midweek as deepening
plains low pressure tracks over the central/southern great lakes.

hydrology...

widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop tuesday night into
wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward across lower
michigan. expected rainfall totals range from 0.75-1.75 inches by
wednesday evening, followed by a changeover to melting snow from
north to south. ensemble data suggests rises on area rivers will be
expected with a chance for minor flood stage for river systems.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......kdk
hydrology....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.