Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
743 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

.what has changed...
aside from a few sprinkles, precipitation has ended for the
evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) canadian high pressure brings an early-fall like airmass briefly,
but shifts east quickly with a return to the warm sector
midweek.

2) oscillating stationary front tuesday night through thursday brings a
return of pops to the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will build in behind the cold front this evening and
tonight with strong pressure rises and northerly winds gusting 15-
25mph. canadian airmass settles in for monday with dewpoints down
into the lower 50s and daytime high temperatures that will struggle
to reach 70f. monday night lows could drop into the upper 40s form
the higher elevations in the south-central portion of the cwa
northeastward into northwest pa. this cool spell for the southern
great lakes will be brief, however, as the high pressure system
will be transient and will shift eastward fairly quickly with return
flow coming into play tuesday. dewpoints and temperatures again on
the increase and could see highs 10-15 degrees warmer than monday.
meanwhile, a warm front will be stretching eastward into the
vicinity of the lengthwise fetch of lake erie, introducing pops into
our zones for tuesday night.

key message 2...
the warm front will become quasi-stationary over the cwa from
tuesday night through thursday night with dewpoints back in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and air temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
will need to examine some of the convective indices as we get closer
to mid week for thunderstorm and any possible severe potential, but
expecting an extended period of on/off convection in more summer-
like weather as we approach the solstice. frontal system should
clear the area after thursday as a cold front with modest
temperatures falls for friday.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
precipitation has ended aside from a few sprinkles in the
vicinity of tol or cle through 04z. a cold front is pushing
south of the evening with northwest winds shifting to north and
becoming gusty near the lakeshore at cle/eri through 09z. broken
high cloud cross the area area with scattered clouds near 3k
feet late tonight through midday on monday. winds will tend to
be 10 knots or less out of the north/northeast on monday before
going variable towards evening as surface high pressure shifts
to the eastern great lakes.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms tuesday
through thursday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie conditions to deteriorate with a cold frontal passage
expected and winds picking up behind the front out of the north
around 20-25kts this evening and early tonight. wave heights build
to 3-6ft as a result, but winds will begin easing by morning back to
10-20kts with a gradual decrease in wave heights through the day
monday. by monday evening, winds light and variable before becoming
offshore tuesday 10-20kts. wave heights nearshore less than 2ft
tuesday, but 2-3ft in the open waters. will mention waterspout
potential monday morning here.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 4 am edt monday for ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement through monday morning for ohz009>012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through monday morning for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 10 am edt monday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...10
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
724 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers likely mainly in northwest indiana and far southwest
lower michigan late this afternoon into the evening.

- there is a high swim risk forecast through late tonight for southeast
lake mi beaches. dangerous swimming conditions continue.

- cooler monday with highs in the 70s with comfortable humidity
levels and sun.

- turning hot and humid tuesday and wednesday. rain and storms possible
tuesday afternoon through wednesday with 30-70% chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 141 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

despite the nbm having no pops today, the href is in good agreement
that widely scattered showers will occur in northwest indiana and
southwest lower michigan from 20z-00z tonight as an upper level
trough and attendant 500mb shortwave that passes through the great
lakes. rainfall amounts should be light, less than 0.10" for most
locations. surface observations show that the surface cold front
associated with this upper level system already passed through the
area this morning. incoming high pressure behind the front means the
pressure gradient will increase over the area this afternoon and
evening, with wind gusts up to 20-25 mph sunday afternoon and
evening. strong northwest flow and caa behind the front will make
for a pleasant night tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
a very fall-like day is ahead monday with highs only in the low to
mid 70s, comfortable humidity, and some filtered sunshine as high
pressure will be directly overhead.

if you have plans to head to se lake michigan beaches today, stay
out of the water! there is a high swim risk and a beach hazards
statement is in effect until 03z monday. behind the cold frontal
passage this morning, dangerous swimming conditions have developed
and are expected to persist through tonight for southeastern lake
michigan beaches in berrien and la porte counties. buoy observations
offshore of washington park beach and silver beach show waves of 3-4
ft as of early afternoon. moderate to strong rip and structural
currents are expected. hazardous swimming conditions may occur again
on tuesday.

an upper level ridge will build across the central and eastern conus
over the next several days. with waa and southwesterly moisture
transport from the gulf, heat and humidity will build on tuesday
underneath the peak of the upper level ridge over the great lakes.
our far southwest will be the warmest with temperatures in the low
90s for highs tuesday and peak heat indices approaching heat
advisory criteria at around 97-98 degrees. confidence is low
for peak heat indices due to chances for rain/storms (see below)
and clouds, so will hold off on any heat headlines for now.

another cold front approaches late tuesday and wednesday with zonal
flow aloft as the ridge gets suppressed. have maintained likely
pops of 40-70% tuesday afternoon through wednesday. there is a
marginal risk for severe weather on tuesday; isolated damaging
wind gusts will be possible due to up to 2000 j/kg of sbcape and
steepening low level lapse rates. with forcing expected to be
weak, this could be a limiting factor for strong to severe
storms. there are still some uncertainties with this system in
regards to exact timing and placement of the cold front.
rain/storm chances midweek will be highly dependent on where the
periphery of the ridge ends up (which model guidance has
routinely struggled with this same setup in recent months). the
boundary will likely stall somewhere across the great lakes or
ohio river valley as the upper level ridge shifts eastward, so
have maintained broad pops midweek of 30-50%.

given that the overall synoptic pattern this fall will be influenced
by a strong to potentially historic el nino, guidance is slowly
trending towards near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures
with drier than normal conditions for mid to late september.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 723 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

today`s cold front continues pushing southeast, away from the area,
which allows a surface high to push through the area. dry air pushes
in and the dew point drops from the mid 50s to the mid to upper 40s
by monday morning. cross-over temps are favorable for fog and winds
do go light to calm overnight, but with the dry air pushing in, nam
bufkit soundings indicate it`s too dry for more than just shallow
ground fog. then, just a few to scattered fair weather clouds are in
store for monday. winds out of the northwest veer east or
southeasterly monday morning as the high moves through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 10 pm cdt this evening for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
610 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

.key messages...

- potential for a few showers to develop this afternoon.

- a cooler air mass settles over the area tonight through monday
night. tonight will feature to coolest night, with overnight lows
falling into the 40s.

- unsettled weather returns tuesday and lingers into late week.
tuesday will feature a warmer more humid day helping to set the
stage for thundestorms chances as a slow moving front arrives.

&&

.aviation...

band of mid level cloud will pivot across the airspace this evening
and may provide a few sprinkles or very light showers. this will
occur with a modestly gusty northwest gradient. wind will ease with
the loss of daytime heating, as the mid level exits to the east
prior to midnight. otherwise, dry and stable conditions overnight
into monday as high pressure builds into the region. this will
support mainly clear skies, with winds remaining modest from a
northerly direction overnight and monday morning. any diurnal cu
will remain limited for the afternoon. thickening high based cloud
returns heading into monday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

discussion...

a split structure to the baroclinic zone exists across the great
lakes region with the surface dewpoint discontinuity/front well to
the south of the midlevel frontal extension. upper level jet streak
will progress through the basal portion of the composite trough axis
this afternoon bringing an increase in anticyclonic flow
trajectories. so while southeast michigan will become increasingly
on the cold side of the boundaries, the greatest dcva with the
absolute vorticity maximum will occur in the 18-00z time window.
models continue to support modest 870-700mb fgen response 21-01z
associated with the vorticity maximum primarily north of i 69.
thought about increasing pops into the likely range, but with lean
1000-700mb mean rh decided to stay with pops of around 30%.

extensive stable surface high pressure will build directly through
southeast michigan tonight and monday. 850mb temperatures dropping
+3c to +5c and a light wind environment will result in chilly 40s
for monday morning lows. there could be a few locations, midland
county, that could see upper 30s but given peak evapotranspiration
of vegetation believe that temperatures will remain buoyed to some
extent. highs monday afternoon, near 70, are expected to be some 3
to 5 degrees below normal.

dynamic upper level low pressure is progged to eject out of the
rockies through the northern plains and into far western ontario
monday night. taste of autumn with the strength of the pressure
gradient bringing strong southerly flow and associated moisture
transport to southeast michigan tuesday. current forecast suggests a
noteworthy surge in surface dewpoints above 70 degrees with south
winds of 15 to 30 mph. questions remain on how progressive the band
of precipitation will be or whether it will remain intact as there
are some signals that upper level ridging could hold across metro
detroit until late tuesday. low level jet becomes veered with
trajectories due westerly so southern portions of the forecast area
could very well be split by the best forcing. ensemble guidance
suggests its may take until wednesday to get more meaningful
precipitation chances into the area as shortwave energy continues to
ring around the upper level ridging to the south. many moving parts
here but the interquartile range of 24hr qpf does increase to .25-
0.5 inch by the first half of the day wednesday for metro detroit.
secondary increase in synoptic scale forcing appears set for late
wednesday and tuesday as another upper level jetlet and right
entrance region dynamics stripe across the area. increase in
ageostrophic circulation could result in stalling warm front and
persistent upward vertical motion. from this vantage point the most
likely timeframe for heavy rainfall potential may be thursday
morning.

marine...

cooler air will continue to work in over the region this afternoon
from the northwest, favoring an uptick in west to northwest winds.
west winds increase to 25-30 knots this afternoon, gradually
becoming northwest through the evening. small craft advisories will
continue for all nearshore waters through tonight into early monday
for a combination of wind gusts in excess of 25 knots and/or 3+ foot
waves.

high pressure quickly builds into the region monday, allowing
northwest winds to relax in/around daybreak. attention then turns to
a robust surface low progged to track across the canadian prairies
monday into tuesday, and eventually reaching the hudson bay region
by tuesday night/wednesday. surface wind fields respond to both the
pressure falls north of the region and the increasing surface
pressure gradient arriving late monday through tuesday. will need to
keep a close eye on the forecast for monday night through tuesday as
south to southwest gales continue to look more likely. there remains
some disagreement amongst the guidance regarding what the high-end
potential of wind speeds look like. however, blended ensemble
guidance show a strong signal for 35-40 kt gales peaking tuesday
morning over the open water of lake huron. there is enough
confidence in gales to issue a gale watch for tuesday. these strong
south winds will also usher back in better fuel for thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through monday morning for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 2 am edt monday for lhz422.

gale watch from late monday night through tuesday afternoon for
lhz362-363.

small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 11 am edt monday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 2 am edt monday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 2 am edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......ja/ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.