Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 270526
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
126 am edt wed may 27 2026

.what has changed...
there are no impactful forecast changes with this update.
scattered showers will be possible near central ohio today. a
drier weather forecast will return for the rest of the week and
weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered rain showers will be possible today south of the
highway 30 corridor.

2) dry and very pleasant weather expected thursday through early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
there is a weak area of low pressure over the lower ohio valley
this morning that is nearly stationary. scattered showers and
isolated thunder will be possible today mainly south of the
highway 30 corridor. a cold front will drop southward across the
eastern great lakes later today and help push this area of low
pressure out of the region. high temperatures will range from
the lower 80s north of highway 30 this afternoon and mid to
upper 70s southward. rainfall amounts will be light up to a
couple tenths of an inch possible.

key message 2...
a large area of high pressure will build across the great lakes
region thursday into friday. pleasant weather conditions are
expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend. high
temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s on thursday.
slightly warmer weather is expected on friday with highs in the
middle to upper 70s. a backdoor cold front will slide through
the area friday night with slightly cooler temperatures expected
on saturday and sunday in the lower to middle 70s. temperatures
will slowly climb to above average by early to middle of next
week into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
high clouds continue to be observed across the majority of the
region and will persist through much of the taf period. rain is
begin to move north across central ohio and is forecast to
impact kfdy, kmfd, kcak, and kyng over the next few hours
through 18-22z today. there may be periods of lowered vis
throughout the day that these sites, but generally will be vfr.
rain will move east this evening and dry weather is expected
across all terminals for the remainder of the taf period. winds
will be light and variable for much of the period before
shifting to be more northerly around 00z tonight.

outlook...vfr is largely favored from thursday through sunday.

&&

.marine...
a weak cold front will sweep southward across lake erie this
afternoon/evening with minimal impacts. ahead of the front,
winds will be light and variable at under 5 knots, then shift to
be predominantly out of the north and increase to 5-10 knots
this evening behind the front. high pressure builds in across
the region on thursday and persist through this sunday. winds
will be primarily out of the north at 5-10 knots and with a
brief increase saturday night to 10-15 knots out of the
northeast. waves throughout the period will be less than 3 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 270633
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
233 am edt wed may 27 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably warm for today with highs from the upper 70s to
middle 80s. little day to day temperature variation then
expected from thursday into the weekend with highs in mid-
upper 70s.

- 20-50% chance for a shower or storm along and south of us
route 24) through mid morning. dry wednesday night into early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 am edt wed may 27 2026

by in large the area will remain rather tranquil over the next week
or so as upper level ridging builds just west of the region. before
we get there, a somewhat complicated scenario takes place as an axis
of deeper moisture works north across central in in associated with
an elongated wave and weak low moves across southern il and rides
along this moisture gradient. models vary greatly on timing,
coverage and intensity on shower/storm development with some
isolated shower development already noted as of 6z from south of
lafayette to marysville, oh. some cams do suggest development could
edge to near us-24 warranting a continued tight gradient of pops for
the time being. as the low moves away, a "cool" front drops quickly
south across mi/wi this afternoon reaching the mi border towards 00z
thu and then continuing south. a few showers are possible as this
drops into ne parts of the area if any lingering moisture still
exists. thinking best (very limited) chances remain just ne of the
forecast area so will keep things dry.

80s will dominate much of the area today, save for locations
along/south of us-24 where the cloud cover from the the southerly
system may limit warming somewhat. on thu, slightly cooler 850 mb
temp and more noticeably lower dewpoints (dropping into the 40s)
will bring a very pleasant feel. although we remain away from any
precip chances into the weekend, disturbances and weak fronts will
help keep dewpoints in the 40s into early next week as well as highs
in the 70s.

last, but not least, while the overall wind and wave forecast
will not pose a concern to small craft behind the cool front
later tonight into thursday, the potential exists for an
increasing swim risk after 9z thu through at least 21z thu. the
best chance for a high swim risk resides along the la porte
county shore line and possibly portions of southern berrien
county shores. have held off on any beach hazard statement, but
if trends continue, headlines will be needed for at least a
portion of our beach zones by the next package.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 120 am edt wed may 27 2026

most, if not all, of the period should be dominated by vfr
conditions as a elongated wave and sfc moisture gradient attempt to
work north across central in. 2 targets of opportunity need to be
monitored for brief flight impacts. at ksbn, obs just before 3z
indicated few002, suggesting some attempt at stratus/br. this has
since dissipated but will need to be watched overnight. models vary
on potential convective development and northward extent of both
precip and possible mvfr cigs along the aformentioned gradient. the
greatest potential seems to lie south of kfwa, but it could be close
for a few hours. no changes to previous taf, but trends to be
monitored closely.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until 11 pm cdt this evening for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 270401
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1201 am edt wed may 27 2026

.key messages...

- the warm air carries a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late
this afternoon as a cold front settles through se michigan.

- temperatures return closer to late may normals from thursday
through next weekend.

- no rain is currently expected during the late week through next
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through tonight with only high clouds to
speak of and a variable to light wind as a dry cold front drops
south. the frontal boundary is forecast to stall out around the
southern michigan border and be a focus for isolated/scattered
showers with potentially some isolated thunder late this afternoon.
have maintained a prob30 group for all taf sites for the 20z to 24z
period. probability for thunder is too low to mention in tafs at
this time. shower coverage may turn out to be pretty sparse as well.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance of a thunderstorm late this
afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 pm edt tue may 26 2026

discussion...

ideal late may weather across se mi is driven by surface high
pressure centered on the ohio border to mid atlantic coast. the air
mass carries above normal warmth but lower humidity enabling
afternoon highs in the lower and mid 80s across the region. this
despite a veil of increasingly opaque cirrus resulting in filtered
afternoon sunshine, except for the tri cities where a longer period
of full sun and newly developing sw flow is having a greater effect
on the warming trend.

dry and mild conditions continue this evening, ahead of a backdoor
cold front as it settles southward over the northern and central
great lakes. james bay low pressure is pulling the front slowly
southward keeping it on schedule to enter se mi early in the
morning. it then nearly stalls toward the ohio border due to the
approach of a trailing mid level short wave. this wave catches up to
the otherwise shallow frontal zone to provide a boost of support for
scattered showers and a rumble of thunder. href mean indicates some
pooling of surface based instability along and south of the front
around 21z wednesday afternoon. greater values toward the ohio
border are still sub 1000 j/kg, worthy of an isolated mention in the
forecast south of the i-96 corridor.

passage of the mid level wave drives the front aggressively into the
ohio valley wednesday night as broad and strong high pressure builds
over nearly the entire great lakes by thursday morning. the air mass
is cooler but not by much compared to the strength of the surface
high, and especially compared to recent temperature swings so far
this month. guidance high temperature projections drop back toward
normal values in the lower 70s while north wind gusting near 20 mph
keeps the lake huron shoreline much cooler.

the surface high is powered by larger scale subsidence in nw flow
aloft that is downstream from the blocky 500 mb plains ridge. this
ridge becomes centered on the northern plains and midwest by friday
to maintain dry weather in lower mi through the late week period.
consensus of extended range deterministic models then brings a
larger low pressure system into quebec and a reinforcing cold front
through the great lakes during saturday.

marine...

a cold front has dropped south across lake superior this morning and
will begin dropping through lake huron this evening. south of the
front, the winds will get a little gusty through the evening
reaching 20 to 25 knots. this will mostly affect saginaw bay. the
front will continue southward tonight into wednesday passing through
lake erie wednesday afternoon. winds will flip around to the north-
northwest behind the front tonight. another area of high pressure
builds into the region behind the front as well and will lead to
varying winds throughout the end of the week. there may be periods
with enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave
activity in nearshore zones at times.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...bt
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.