Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1258 pm est tue dec 30 2025

.synopsis...
a surface trough will linger across the great lakes region today
into wednesday before an area of low pressure moves through the
eastern great lakes on wednesday. the low will drag a cold front
southeast across the region wednesday night into thursday. high
pressure begins to build into the region on friday and persist
into the weekend.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
tldr:
biggest change to the forecast on this shift was to make
some adjustments to the winter weather headlines, both in
severity and in time. the winter weather advisories for summit,
portage, and trumbull counties remain unchanged and will expire
at 1 pm today as lake effect showers ease. elsewhere, expanded
the lake effect snow warning to include ashtabula, lake, and
northern erie (pa) counties where confidence in warning amounts
of snow are the highest. maintained the winter weather advisory
for cuyahoga county given lower confidence in 6+ inches of
snowfall with the next round of lake effect snow. the advisory
for cuyahoga county and the lake effect snow warning for the
ohio counties (geauga, lake, ashtabula) are now in effect
through 7 am thursday. the lake effect snow warning for
northwest pennsylvania is in effect through 7 pm thursday.

persistent areawide lake effect snow showers are expected to
last through late this morning/early this afternoon before
becoming focused over the primary snowbelt as winds back
westerly. additional snowfall accumulations with the lingering
lake effect snow through this afternoon will generally range
between 1 and 3 inches across northeast ohio and 3 to 5 inches
across northwest pennsylvania. blowing and drifting snow will
continue to be a concern through this afternoon as snow ratios
remain in the 18:1 to 20:1 range and northwesterly winds
continue to gust to 25-30 mph. anticipate for winds to ease
through the day today as they turn westerly to southwesterly.
there will be a very brief window this evening where the ongoing
lake effect snow showers diminish ahead of another impactful
period of lake effect snow sets up across the region tonight and
lasts through thursday. the initial redevelopment of lake
effect snow will remain hugged against the lake erie lakeshore
tonight under westerly mean layer flow. simultaneously, a weak
clipper system will push east across the region overnight
tonight bringing 1-2" of snowfall across much of the region.
however, higher snowfall amounts of 3-6" will be possible along
the lakeshore where the initial lake effect band sets up.

lake effect snowfall continues on wednesday but will quickly
ramp up in coverage and intensity wednesday afternoon/evening
as a strong upper trough and surface cold front push south
across the local area. expect widespread snowfall and continued
lake effect snowfall to impact the region wednesday evening.
increasing winds ahead of and with the crossing trough axis will
increase the potential for snow squalls wednesday evening,
particularly across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
the timing is less than ideal given the holiday evening and
hazardous travel conditions possible nye night. plan
accordingly.

highs in the mid 20s this afternoon will rise a few degrees to
the upper 20s on wednesday. lows tonight fall into the upper
teens with wind chills in the single digits.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
lake effect snowfall will continue overnight wednesday into
thursday morning before gradually tapering off through the
thursday evening as low levels dry out. another upper level
shortwave may clip extreme northeast portions of the forecast
area on thursday night into friday which may reinvigorate lake
effect snow showers. however, there remains a bit of
uncertainty given the approaching ridge of high pressure and dry
air across the region.

much cooler wednesday night behind the crossing cold front with
lows dropping into the single digits to low tens and wind chill
values near zero thursday morning. highs on thursday settle in
the lower 20s with lows in the teens and single digit wind
chills likely thursday night. slightly warmer by friday with
highs in the upper 20s though overnight lows in the teens are
expected.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
quieter weather expected this weekend under high pressure.
models continue to hint at a weak low pressure system moving
east across the great lakes region sunday night into monday.
this low could lead to another window of lake effect snow across
the snowbelt to begin the first full week of 2026. highs in the
upper 20s to low 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens to
lower 20s through the long term.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
lake effect snow continues across the typical snowbelt area west
of i-77 in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through
this evening. ceilings of 1500-3500 ft are expected, with
variable visibilities in the 2-5 sm range, though could be
briefly as low as 1/2sm at times. west wind of 12-15 knots with
gusts up to 20-30 knots this afternoon will subside to 10-12
knots with gusts up to 20 knots this evening.

a weak clipper system will bring a period of light snow focused
on the western half of the forecast area (along and west of
i-77) with visibilities in the 1-2sm range for about 3-6 hours
late tonight into early wednesday morning. meanwhile, lake
effect snow will redevelop and intensify along the lakeshore
late tonight with westerly flow. moderate to heavy snow is
likely to impact keri, with visibilities persistently at or
below 1 sm, and down to 1/4sm at times. as flow becomes west-
northwest, should see lake effect snow impacting the rest of the
forecast area with periodic visibilities at or below 2 sm.
westerly winds will be on the rise wednesday afternoon, with
gusts in the 25-30 knot range.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are expected across the region
due to lake effect snow through thursday night and then with
low clouds friday through saturday.

&&

.marine...
gale warnings continue across lake erie today, though conditions
will be improving with winds and waves diminishing from west to
east. the warnings will should be allow to expire in the open waters
and downgraded in the nearshore at their respective times but can be
adjusted as needed should conditions improve quick enough. that
being said, after this evening winds will generally be out of the
west to southwest at 15-25 knots through friday. there will be
points of elevated winds in the central and eastern basins as a cold
front and trough traverse the lake wednesday evening through
thursday morning though should stay below gales. waves will stay
elevated as well being between 8-15 feet in the central and eastern
basins and 4-7 feet west of the islands through this evening. waves
won`t begin to subside east of the islands until friday evening when
the winds begin to weaken across the lake. quieter marine conditions
are expected to start the weekend as high pressure builds into the
region from the west.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 am est thursday for ohz011.
lake effect snow warning until 7 am est thursday for
ohz012>014-089.
winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
ohz021>023.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est thursday for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est wednesday for lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est thursday for lez145>147.
gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez148-149-168-
169.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...saunders
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
102 pm est tue dec 30 2025

.key messages...
- the first of two fast-moving clipper systems will impact the
area tonight, bringing widespread light snow with the best
chance of accumulations mainly north of us-30. there is a
50-70 percent chance of at least 3 inches of new accumulation
across berrien county mi this evening and overnight.

- a second clipper will impact the area wednesday afternoon
through early thursday morning. a general 1-3 inch snowfall is
expected from this system, though localized snow squalls are
also possible which could contribute to locally higher
accumulations.

- trending drier later in the week through the weekend, but
seasonably cold temperatures persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1255 pm est tue dec 30 2025

an unsettled weather pattern will persist through mid-week with the
primary focus being on two clipper systems, both of which offering
two brief windows of additional minor snowfall accumulation. a few
lingering lake effect snow showers have finally begun to diminish
early this afternoon, but expect this lull will be fairly short
lived as a fast moving short wave and attendant mid-level vort
max tracks across the western great lakes, giving way to
widespread light to moderate snow w/ the best chance for
accumulations north of us-30 with the highest amounts favored
over berrien county mi with 50-70 percent probabilities of at
least 3 inches per the latest href suite. given the relatively
short residence time of the strongest dynamic support, opted not
to issue any headlines at this time but certainly cannot rule
out the need for a possible winter weather advisory this evening
into the overnight hours. a second, markedly stronger
disturbance arrives mid/late wednesday with a coupled 120- 130
knot h25 jet helping contribute to a few strongly forced snow
bands along the surface boundary, along with some lake
enhancement as well. very steep low-level lapse rates suggest
sufficient instability for potential snow squall activity, so
will need to monitor for this as well. an general 1-3 inch
snowfall can be expected with this next wave. otherwise,
continued cold as the parade of clippers will continue to
provide reinforcing shots of cold air, keeping h85 temperatures
between -6 and -12 deg c and surface temperatures below
freezing.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1225 pm est tue dec 30 2025

light lake effect snow will continue to impact ksbn into early
afternoon, and then visibilities should improve as the snow
tapers off. then another clipper system combined with more lake
enhanced snow is reinvigorated starting later this evening.
periods of mvfr cigs and visibility can therefore be expected at
both terminals through the taf period. west-southwest winds will
gusts to around 20 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1205 pm est tue dec 30 2025

.key messages...

- two periods of light snow, each of which are forecast to produce
an inch or two of accumulation, will affect the area. the first will
be this evening and the second during the day wednesday.

- seasonally cold weather will persist into the weekend. the coldest
temperatures will be new years eve evening into news years day with
wind chills mainly in the single digits.

&&

.aviation...

all terminals have seen ceilings fall to high mvfr late this morning
as light lake effect snow showers lessen in coverage/intensity.
these light snow showers/flurries persist into the evening before a
clipper system arrives bringing widespread light accumulating
snowfall through the first half of tonight. ceilings hold mvfr
throughout with vsbys ranging between ifr-mvfr dependent on location
of heavier snow. in general, most areas likely see between 0.5-1" of
new snow. breezy wnw winds gradually weaken toward 10-15kts as they
turn wsw tonight. winds restrengthen daytime wednesday as another
clipper arrives with late morning-afternoon gusts back up around
25kts. another inch or so of snow is forecast with this second
system.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 feet through the forecast period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 304 am est tue dec 30 2025

discussion...

low level wind fields will remain on a gradual diminishing trend
during the morning with the continued departure of yesterday`s storm
system. lingering lake aggregate troughing will however sustain a
west-northwesterly gradient across se mi through the day, with a
solid 20 knots residing in the mixed layer. this will maintain brisk
conditions as daytime temperatures hold in the 20s with wind chills
in the single digits and teens. early day deep layer subsidence from
850mb up through 500 mb will lower inversion heights, allowing a
decrease in remnant lake effect. supersaturation wrt ice within
remnant strato cu will support a few flurries.

the region of deep layer moisture noted on upstream satellite
imagery over north dakota is tied to a weak mid level short wave
along the nose of an upper jet streak. this wave will traverse srn
lower mi late this afternoon into the early portion of the overnight.
large scale isentropic ascent will remain weak and quite elevated
(aob 700mb) within a relatively stable mid level profile. despite the
canadian origin of this system, it does have relatively decent deep
layer moisture; specific humidities of 1.5 to 2 g/kg are projected up
through 700mb. the approach of this wave will force a more westerly
low level flow which will add some enhancement off lake mi. latest hi
res guidance suggests this will be focused between the i-94 and i-69
corridors. thermodynamic profiles suggest the potential for some
good dendrites. the weak nature of the ascent argues for total snow
accumulations (between 21z today and 06z wed morning) for an inch or
less. localized accums up toward 2 inches are possible within any
persistent lake enhanced bands.

this first round of light snow will be followed by a brief interval
of subsidence early wednesday morning before the next round of light
snow arrives mid-late wed morning. a more amplified mid level wave
rotating around the deep upper low over hudson bay will track
across lake superior into eastern ontario. this will drive an arctic
cold front across se mi late in the day wednesday. better mid level
height falls and frontogenetical forcing will contribute to a broad
region of light snow. there is the potential for a little bit of
lake enhancement in advance of the associated arctic front.
probabilistic guidance is highly supportive of accumulations in the
1 to 2 inch range. given the convective component due to steepening
low level lapse rates, some isolated three inch amounts can not be
ruled out. within the increased mixed layer on wednesday, model
soundings suggest a fairly good core of 30 knot winds. while not
advisory worthy, this will still make for brisk conditions with some
blowing snow. the cold front will push south of the area
around/shortly after 00z with a fairly good push of arctic air
arriving within north-northwest winds during the evening hours of new
years eve, persisting into the start of the new year. the near
persistence of the upper low over eastern canada will maintain
seasonally cold conditions into the weekend.

marine...

gales continue for a few more hours this morning as monday`s strong
low pressure system exits toward the atlantic coast. the system
leaves behind diminished nw flow that is still able to maintain
arctic air across the great lakes as the next much weaker low
pressure system moves into lake superior tonight. this system brings
a round of light snow tonight and wednesday until moving eastward
wednesday night. the trailing cold front reinforces arctic air with
an uptick in nw wind that is projected to remain below gales through
thursday. sub gales, occasional snow showers, and freezing spray
then persist over the central great lakes into next weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est wednesday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 8 pm est this evening for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sc
marine.......bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.