Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
730 am edt wed apr 1 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes in the overall thoughts for the weather pattern
through the first part of the weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled southwesterly flow aloft with an oscillating frontal
boundary south and north of the cwa through the first part of the
weekend.

2) strong saturday night cold front changes the airmass and
conditions across the region for a chillier end of the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
the cold front dropping southward through the area this morning
will settle briefly just north of the ohio river valley by late
wednesday before lifting back north through the cwa as a warm
front thursday. this is going to represent yet another dramatic
swing in the temperatures for the region, which will take much
of the cwa back to the 40s today (except for the far southern
zones), and then as the warm front passes thursday, back to the
70s once again. will continue to have to deal with isentropic
lift wednesday north of the boundary, and bands of low/mid level
f-gen setting up as well, which will keep the rain off and on
through wednesday, and less coverage/frequency wednesday night.
once the warm front passes through on thursday, a brief drier
period is expected in the warm sector with largely only isolated
showers in overall drier flow. a series of surface troughs and
weak areas of upper level pva keep the shower/storm potential
going through through friday night. perhaps some strong to
severe storms again late thursday/thursday night for the western
zones. qpf amounts should be overall on the lighter side for any
given wave of showers or storms rolling through, which is
critical in order to let the watersheds catch up after very
active convective activity that occurred tuesday evening with
high rainfall amounts.

key message #2:
outside of today, after another period of well above average
temperatures, a strong cold front moves through saturday night,
likely accompanied by a line of showers and storms as 70s turn
into mid 40s to mid 50s for the latter portion of the forecast
taking us to early next week. likely to be drier under high
pressure once the front moves through sunday through monday. a
reinforcement to the upper level trough comes through for
tuesday with chilly rain showers, perhaps mixed in with wet
flakes tuesday morning.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
the cold front continues south across the area this morning, but
it slowing down considerably. meanwhile, rain continues east
through the area and will persist through much of the daytime
hours. ceilings have fallen to a mix of mvfr to lifr across the
region. the mvfr is largely limited to northwest ohio where some
easterly flow off lake erie is briefly abating the lower
ceilings and some of the rain. elsewhere, ifr and lifr has taken
over and will persist for much of the day. the front will stop
south of the area and most of the rain will exit to the south
tonight. the front will start to lift north tonight and some
additional rain will enter northwest ohio late in the taf
period.

outlook...additional periods of non-vfr conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms late thursday into thursday night.
non-vfr possible on friday through saturday night with rain and
low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
with a cold front crossing the lake this morning, winds are
shifting to the north and eventually northeast. the front will
lift back north tonight into thursday, as a warm front. stronger
easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts will be present on the lake on
thursday morning and then shift to the south with the warm
frontal passage. low pressure will pass the lake to the
northwest on friday. the increased pressure gradient across the
region should allow for some enhanced southwest flow of 15 to 20
kts over the lake and anything slightly stronger could
necessitate a small craft advisory need. a weak cold front will
pass through the lake friday evening, ending the stronger winds.
this front will return as a warm front early saturday and
elevated southwest flow will return to the basin. a stronger
cold front will move through the region on saturday night and
elevated west winds will be favored into sunday. there will be
potential for a small craft advisory for this weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 011040
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt wed apr 1 2026

.key messages...

- rain/storms persist through this afternoon.

- localized flooding due to heavy rain is ongoing and is
expected to continue today. rises on area rivers into at
least minor flood stage are likely.

- another round of severe weather is possible thursday evening
into thursday night. there is a slight risk for severe
weather with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes as the main
threats.

- mild over the next several days with highs in the 70s thursday
through saturday. cooler in the 40s for easter.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 209 am edt wed apr 1 2026

active weather continues to start april and a soggy day is ahead as
rain and storms continue. as of 06z this morning, the cold front
that brought us severe weather yesterday evening has slowed it`s
forward progression. the cold front currently extends from detroit
to fort wayne to lafayette. highs for the day have already been
reached. with cyclonic, northwest flow and caa on the backside of
the front, temperatures are quickly falling into the upper 30s
to low 40s. on radar, numerous showers and storms are still
ongoing and will continue through the morning as the cold front
slowly slides southeastward. a series of 500 mb shortwave
perturbations over central illinois and indiana will
reinvigorate convection between 09- 18z. additional rounds of
rain and storms will continue to lift out of the ohio river
valley along and ahead of that cold front as it slowly sinks
southeast. much of our area still remains in a slight risk
(level 2 of 4) for flooding overnight into later this morning.
expect training showers and storms to repeatedly cause heavy
rain over the same areas. 1-3" of rain has already fallen in the
past 12 hours as of early this morning. flooding is likely to
continue this morning and afternoon given a very saturated
atmospheric profile (low and mid level rh >90%) and precipitable
water values of 1-1.5" over the area. in addition, very strong
moisture transport is still ongoing at 850mb ahead of the front,
although this will wane as the morning ensues. ponding on area
roadways and rises on area rivers into at least minor flood are
expected throughout the day today. rain is expected to taper off
gradually from northwest to southeast after 18z.

after the busiest march for severe weather that our office has ever
had (a record 18 tornado warnings and a record 57 severe
thunderstorm warnings were issued!), we have a quick lull in severe
chances before becoming active once again by thursday. the storm
prediction center has almost our entire area in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather on thursday. another deepening low
pressure system will traverse the central plains and lift up into
the upper midwest by thursday afternoon. a warm front will lift from
south to north across our area thursday morning. models vary on
whether or not convection will be ongoing thursday morning; some
have rain others keep us completely dry in the dry slot of the low
pressure system. with our area once again firmly in the warm sector
thursday afternoon, even if we do get rain thursday morning, we
should have several hours for airmass recovery to occur. there could
be lingering outflow boundaries or cloud debris from morning
convection (if it occurs) but mild air returns as temperatures
quickly moderate back into the 70s by thursday afternoon. low level
waa and moisture transport quickly increases thursday afternoon with
dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s. the system`s attendant
cold front will sweep across our area thursday evening into thursday
night (best guess is somewhere between 00z-06z friday) bringing
chances for strong to severe storms. on thursday evening, the right
entrance region of a jet streak will be over our area. this also
coincides with an negatively tilted trough at 500 mb and a 45-55kt
low level jet at 850mb. these features will aid in surface
convergence and enhanced lift ahead of and along the approaching
cold front.

while we may start with a few discrete storms initially, as
more storms pop up into thursday evening ahead of the cold
front, i`d expect a transition to more of a linear setup with
bowing segments/clusters. a more organized qlcs is also
possible. this setup will favor damaging winds and tornadoes as
the main threats. low level vertical wind shear is evident in
forecast hodographs, which depict 0-1 km srh values of 200-300
m2/s2 across our forecast area thursday evening into the early
overnight. uncertainties with this setup are with the amount of
instability and potentially poor lapse rates; this could be a
high shear, low cape setup as most hi-res and medium range
models only have about 500 j/kg of sbcape thursday evening. mid
level lapse rates of about 7 c/km thursday evening also quickly
diminish after sunset with a loss of diurnal heating. as for the
tornado threat, spc has our entire area under a 5% tornado risk
with cig1 hatching. while the overall tornado threat is rather
low, it it not zero and if a tornado were to develop, it could
be strong (up to ef2 intensity). embedded circulations/spin ups
within any bowing segment/qlcs will be possible.

our active weather pattern looks to continue late week into easter
weekend. unfortunately, we just can`t seem to get a break longer
than 48 hours from rain/storms. on saturday, another low pressure
system lifts into the upper midwest and it`s attendant cold front
moves through our area. mild temperatures persist with highs in the
70s friday and saturday. easter is looking much cooler following the
cold frontal passage with highs only in the 40s. we maybe dry out
into early next week (not fully putting all my eggs in one basket
for this just yet) as high pressure could work its way into the
upper great lakes.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 640 am edt wed apr 1 2026

another round of rain is currently expanding across the area
this morning and will mainly impact kfwa through 16z. mucape
values and upstream lightning strikes have dropped significantly
from earlier so will hold with just a prob30 ts mention.
otherwise ifr to low-end mvfr will likely persist through much
of the day at both terminals given cool/moist low level flow.
warm front returns north at the end of the period with another
round of showers and storms.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 am edt wed apr 1 2026

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures today with most areas seeing low to mid
40s. winds off lake huron likely keep the thumb and saginaw valley
cooler in the mid 30s to around 40.

- warm front lifts through the area thursday morning bringing shower
chances. a brief period of wintry mix possible in northern
midland/bay- little to no ice accumulation forecast.

- another low pressure system brings a chance of thunderstorms
thursday evening. a couple strong to severe storms possible west of
us-23.

- yet another low lifts through the great lakes saturday supporting
additional showers and a few thunderstorms.

- below normal temperatures return sunday into the new work week.

&&

.aviation...

colder, cloud laden air has spilled into lower mi during the night
after tuesday`s cold front. ne wind in the 10-20 kt range down the
full length of lake huron has solidified mvfr ceiling across the
area under a stout low level inversion. morning showers in the
midwest then graze the area from the ohio border up toward dtw this
afternoon while cloud base attempts to churn up into the higher
range of mvfr. the forecast is leaned toward more pessimistic
solutions based on upstream observations across southern ontario
into quebec and the lower great lakes as surface to cloud layer wind
veers easterly this afternoon and evening. the ohio valley front is
then nudged northward as the next low pressure system arrives in the
central plains tonight. mvfr ceiling firms up as rain showers
increase across lower mi late tonight into thursday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this morning, moderate this
afternoon, and high tonight and thursday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 351 am edt wed apr 1 2026

discussion...

much cooler start today following last night`s cold front with all
but the southernmost areas sitting in the 30s. this boundary remains
stalled over northern in/oh today offering potential for scattered
showers to creep north of the state line over areas south of i-94,
particularly in the afternoon as a wave ripples along the front.
otherwise, the bulk of se mi stays dry today with anticyclonic flow
under northern ontario high pressure. lingering cloud cover and
northeasterly wind off lake huron keep highs firmly below average to
start april with widespread low to mid 40s. as is typical in this
flow pattern, saginaw valley and thumb will be the coldest instead
topping out in the mid 30s to around 40.

stalled frontal boundary begins to lift back north into southern
lower mi late wednesday night-thursday as warm front in response to
the next mid-upper wave ejecting out over the central plains.
isentropic ascent increases through thursday morning focusing
greatest precip coverage/intensities over areas north of m-59.
models have continued to trend warmer for late wednesday night-
thursday morning favoring above freezing temperatures for nearly all
of se mi keeping p-type as (liquid) rain. as it currently stands,
only potential exception is the northernmost portions of midland/bay
counties where guidance hovers right around the freezing mark for a
couple hours at precipitation onset before warming. this offers a
brief window for a lead edge light wintry mix though probabilities
for these areas to see measurable ice (0.01") is only 15%.

while the elevated portions of the warm frontal slope largely clear
north of the cwa thursday afternoon, the surface boundary likely
lags. good signal across the model suite for preceding east-
southeasterly flow off lakes erie/st clair acting to partly
inhibit/slow the surface front until thursday evening when a
prefrontal trough lifts through the state finally forcing the front
north. this outcome would result in areas north of i-94 holding in
the 40`s and 50`s for most of the daylight hours before the 60s/low
70s over the far south finally advance northward. this also would
confine sbcape (500-1000 j/kg) to the southernmost counties and just
to our west as the arrival of the prefrontal trough feature latter
half of the evening only allows decaying surface instability to ooze
north. while the strong column wind field (45-55kts above 925mb)
provides more than sufficient shear, it will be difficult for
convection to stay rooted in the surface layer north of i-94/east of
us-23. for areas south of 94 and into western livingston/shiawassee,
severe potential looks more dependent on when convection arrives
from the west, whether late evening (better instability still
available/better chance for a severe storm) or overnight (lesser
instability available/lower chance for a severe storm). damaging
wind gusts would be the primary hazard with a chance for an isolated
tornado, given the surface boundary in the vicinity. weak cold front
eventually tracks into lower mi thursday night generating scattered
(thunder)showers.

another, stronger mid-upper wave ejecting out over the central
plains friday induces a downstream height rise response across the
great lakes likely stalling the aforementioned cold front over se
mi. this trough/surface low take a similar track to thursday`s
system placing the cwa again within the warm sector as the stalled
boundary lifts back north. showers and a few thunderstorms are
likely saturday as the low works across the central great lakes with
its cold front eventually crossing saturday night. below normal
temperatures follow to close out the weekend/start the new work week
as 850mb temps fall to -8 to -10c keeping highs generally in the 40s
to around 50.

marine...

the northeast gradient will increase today as the surface high
departs to the east and a warm front approaches from the south. this
will bring elevated waves into saginaw bay and across the lake huron
shoreline, where small craft advisories are in place. low pressure
is then forecast to track from the western great lakes into the
northern great lakes tomorrow into tomorrow night. easterly gale
force winds carry a low probability across the north half of lake
huron as this low approaches. rain showers will be likely through
the morning and afternoon along a warm front thursday with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms later in the day
leading into friday morning. some isolated thunderstorms may be
strong to severe, leading to wind gusts aoa 34 knots.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.