Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
207 am edt tue may 5 2026

.what has changed...
6:09 pm edt may 4th update...

periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through daybreak tuesday, which warranted a slight
increase in pop`s. also increased forecast low temperatures
slightly for overnight tonight since increasing cloud cover and
persistent low-level warm/moist air advection from the gulf are
expected to limit nocturnal cooling through daybreak tuesday
morning more so than the previous forecast depicted.

&&

.key messages...
1) severe weather possible this afternoon into the late evening,
though thunderstorms are expected to be isolated to scattered.

2) widespread showers and thunderstorms expected tuesday into
wednesday. nuisance flooding possible with minor river flooding
possible across the region.

3) cooler temperatures expected the second half of the week with
scatttered frost possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through tuesday morning as weak to moderate cape,
including elevated cape, is released by the following:
moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes aloft,
enhanced moist isentropic ascent aloft associated with the
development of a sw`erly llj at/near 850 mb between about
midnight and daybreak tuesday morning; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes accompanying
the shortwave troughs, established downshear outflow boundaries,
and along a cold front that will enter far-northwestern portions
of our cwa by late tuesday morning. surface dew points were
mainly in the mid 40`s to lower 50`s f as of about 6 pm edt, but
will climb to the lower to mid 50`s f during the course of this
evening as greater low-level moisture, originating over the
gulf, continues to overspread our region fairly slowly. spc has
highlighted a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the area
west of a roughly sandusky to tiffin, oh line, while the rest of
our oh counties are in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
trends in forecast model soundings continue to depict moderate
effective bulk shear, fairly-steep mid-level lapse rates near
7c/km, steep low-level lapse rates stemming from recent diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer, moderate dcape, and
weak to moderate boundary layer cape will contribute to an
environment favorable for multicell storms and perhaps a few
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing marginally-severe
hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts in northern oh. the
severe thunderstorm threat should end late this evening, in
response to boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling.
the potential for severe storms in nw pa still appears to be
very limited since slower low-level moisture return from the
gulf should result in less cape, including elevated cape, there
through this evening.

key message 2...

a cold front will enter the region tuesday morning and there will be
widespread showers and thunderstorms that afternoon into the
evening. there will be a brief dry period late monday night into
tuesday morning, but rain will return from the west mid day
tomorrow. the front will be slowly moving to the east and may cause
some nuisance flooding and possible river rises across the region.
qpf for tuesday through wednesday morning will is around 0.75-1.50"
with amounts east of the i-71 corridor over an inch possible. the
cold front will move out to the east late tuesday night and rain
will slowly end from west to east across the region.

key message 3...

behind the cold front on wednesday, temperatures will drop to below
average through the end of the week. global models have 850
temperatures dropping down to around -2c by friday morning. thursday
and friday morning will be the coolest of the week, with
temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 30s with some
locations down into the lower 30s. frost potential will be possible
those days, though with lingering cloud cover, may be more
isolated.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
rain will increase in coverage over the next few hours,
especially across western and central terminals. this may cause
some brief mvfr, but generally expect vfr with mainly light
rain. removed thunder early this morning given little to no
instability in the latest analysis.

after a lull in the rain showers in the roughly 12-15z
timeframe, expect another round of rain to spread in from west
to east. this will be a much more widespread and longer lasting
period of rain, setting up a wet afternoon and evening with cigs
and vis gradually falling to mvfr and eventually ifr. some
thunderstorms could develop on the front edge of this rain
shield at kmfd, kcle, kcak, kyng, and keri, so kept tempo
groups.

s to sw winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times this morning
before gradually turning nw late this morning through the
afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. wind speeds
will decrease through the afternoon, becoming ne around 3 to 5
knots by early tonight.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected
through saturday. occasional thunderstorms are possible friday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 10 to 20 knots are expected through early
tuesday morning. marginal small craft advisory conditions may
periodically occur this evening and tonight, however confidence
is too low to warrant a headline at this point. gusty winds are
possible in any thunderstorms that move over the lake this
evening into tonight. winds will shift to the northwest and
diminish below 10 knots tuesday afternoon with variable winds 10
knots or less expected tuesday evening through wednesday night.
west/northwest winds under 15 knots will develop wednesday
through thursday with southwest winds developing friday into
early weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/23
aviation...garuckas
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
301 am edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers will remain possible this morning.

- widespread rain develops this afternoon into this evening,
mainly along and south of the us 24 corridor.

- below normal temperatures mid week with rain chances (30-60%)
returning friday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 am edt tue may 5 2026

scattered showers will remain possible this morning behind a
convective outflow, and in the vicinity of a sfc cold front dropping
through from northwest to southeast. a few rumbles of thunder will
also remain possible, mainly in our far southeast (portland in to
lima-ottawa oh).

increasing upper level divergence/forcing and incoming shortwave
energy on the southern fringe of a stalling upper midwest upper
trough will result in a strengthening baroclinic zone along and
southeast of the us 24 corridor this afternoon into this evening.
good moisture transport into this developing corridor of elevated
frontogenesis should allow widespread rain to develop during this
time. there will be a sharp cut-off to the rain with much of nw in
and sw mi potentially rain-free during the pm hours as drier low
level undercuts the frontal circulation. cool and mainly cloudy
otherwise today with temperatures generally in the 50s.

below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are anticipated
wednesday and thursday within a broad trough axis. heights do relax
a bit friday into the upcoming weekend signaling a slight warmup to
temperatures more typical for early may. west-northwest flow will
persist however, sending several shortwaves and frontal systems
through the region. timing of these waves per a model consensus
favors friday-friday evening and saturday night-sunday for the
best chances (30-60%) for rain.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1220 am edt tue may 5 2026

showers and embedded thunder along a convective outflow will
exit kfwa by 07z or so. dry and mainly vfr otherwise early this
morning. a cold front moves through before daybreak at ksbn and
kfwa by 12-13z. scattered showers may accompany this feature
with a period of high mvfr to low vfr cigs possible at kfwa.
more widespread rain likely develops this afternoon into this
evening at kfwa as a frontal waves develops. better prospects
for cig/vis restrictions will be just south of kfwa, with ksbn
definitely vfr and potentially dry by this time as drier air
begins to make inroads.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 am edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- much cooler temperatures will prevail for the rest of the work
week.

- rain chances today and tonight will be greatest across metro
detroit and points south.

&&

.discussion...

mid level height falls across the northern great lakes this morning
resulting from short wave energy pivoting around the northern
ontario upper low will drive a surface cold front across se mi.
while somewhat ill-defined due to overnight convection and a weak
surface low which developed off the thumb region, the main surface
front will be east of the forecast area by early afternoon. some
residual boundary layer convergence, elevated frontal forcing and a
weak short wave lifting into the area from iowa will sustain a
chance of lingering showers during the day. shallow post frontal
cold air advection will drop temperatures into the 50s. the earlier
fropa across the saginaw valley and expectation for a thinner
afternoon cloud deck in this area will offer the potential for
daytime heating to boost late afternoon highs back around 60 in the
north.

the 00z model suite and their respective ensembles continue to show
variance as to the strength and position of a mid level short wave
impulse and corresponding enhancement in elevated frontogenesis
across se mi late this afternoon into early wed morning. the main
impact this will have on the forecast is how far into se mi a
secondary wave of rain expands on the cool side of the low level
baroclinic zone that will be draped across the eastern great lakes.
the ongoing upscale growth of the convective complex across central
illinois and indiana has not been handled well by much of the 00z
model suite. those hi res solutions which have a better handle on
this convection indicate a more easterly track to the forcing later
today , which would limit the better rain chances to along and
southeast of a downtown detroit to adrian line. cloud cover and a
lingering gradient flow will hold nighttime mins mainly in the 40s,
with some 30s possible north of the i-69 corridor where some
intervals of clearing are possible.

a secondary push of cold air is forecast on wednesday as long wave
troughing extends into the northern and western great lakes. while
drier air will advect into the boundary layer, model soundings
indicate enough moisture with the cold air aloft present to result
in an expanding diurnal cu field. cloud depth may enough to support
a few sprinkles or light showers by late afternoon. despite the
seasonally cold air aloft, steep daytime lapse rates and mixing
depths projected to reach 8k feet will support forecast highs in the
upper 50s to around 60, with cooler readings in the thumb and port
huron do to onshore winds. the persistence of the hudson bay upper
low and long wave troughing over the great lakes will sustain
seasonally cool conditions into the weekend. numerous short wave
impulses rotating across the region within the base of the longer
wavelength trough will support periodic chances for showers during
the latter half of the forecast period (friday thru monday).

&&

.marine...

a cold front will work across the great lakes this morning which
will briefly reorient winds north-northwest in the wake of the
front. winds to lessen in speed and become more variable during the
day today. tonight through thursday, winds will back from the
northeast to north and eventually from the west, as another area of
low pressure organizes south of the region and moves over the
continental northeast.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1202 am edt tue may 5 2026

aviation...

lingering region of weak instability will sustain some pockets of
convection ahead of a cold front early this morning. observational,
satellite and radar trends suggest the probability for thunderstorms
will rapidly diminish after 06z. cold front will settle southward
through the region during the morning period. this will bring a wind
shift to west-northwest. there remains a narrow window for some
degree of lower cloud development along and immediately behind the
front.little evidence of occurrence thus far upstream and will
maintain conservative approach attm. additional pockets of light
showers expected tuesday along the lingering elevated frontal zone.

d21/dtw convection...low probability for remains for thunderstorms
through 06z, then chances ending thereafter.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms early this morning.

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet; medium tuesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......am
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.