Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
771
fxus61 kcle 030155
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
955 pm edt wed jul 2 2025

.synopsis...
a weak cold front will move south across the area on thursday,
followed by building high pressure for friday into saturday. another
cold front will approach the region from the west on sunday into
monday.

&&

.near term /through thursday night/...
950 pm update...
increased pops slightly across the eastern lakeshore counties
and adjusted the timing to be later over the next few hours.
the showers and thunderstorms currently over eastern michigan
have been moving southward, though they have been weakening and
should continue trending that way.

main concern for the near term period will be isolated showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of a nw to se-oriented cold front
thursday afternoon and evening, with development expected generally
along and west of the i-77 corridor. for the most part, coverage
should be limited to isolated showers and storms with dry low and
mid-levels. for today (wednesday), main concern will be the
development of upstream showers and thunderstorms across eastern
michigan which may eventually work their way across the central and
eastern lake erie basins later this evening into the overnight.

seasonable temperatures are expected on thursday with highs
generally in the mid-80s.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
the latest guidance favors a dry fourth of july for the area as
upper-level ridging and high pressure build into the region.
precipitation chances will not be 0% for friday afternoon and
evening, particularly across northwest ohio, though feel comfortable
in precluding mentionable pops at this time (less than 15%).
otherwise, the rest of the short term period will feature quiet
weather and a warming trend as temperatures in the upper 80s on
friday increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s by saturday.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
the warmest day of the long term period will be sunday with high
temperatures in the lower 90s across the board and heat indices
approaching the mid to upper 90s and perhaps briefly touching 100
degrees at times. as the low-levels begin to moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the west, precipitation chances may
begin to increase across northwest ohio, particularly sunday evening
and overnight. precipitation chances will be the highest on monday
when scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of a cold front. currently not outlooked for any
strong to severe storms, but could see future inclusion if trends
persist over the next few forecast iterations.

tuesday should see a reprieve from the rainy pattern as brief high
pressure builds behind the front. however, the active pattern may
return on wednesday as another upper-level trough will move east
through the upper midwest, introducing more opportunities for
afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
vfr is expected to continue through the rest of the taf period.
the few/sct clouds observed throughout the evening will
continue around the 050-080 level. added in a prob30 line for
kcle and taf sites to the west for thunderstorms as a boundary
will move south after 18z. thunderstorms are low in confidence
and expected to be fairly scattered. probability for
thunderstorms will go down as the sunsets after 23z. there will
be a wind shift behind the boundary with winds becoming north-
northeasterly, but will still be light.

outlook...vfr is expected thursday night through saturday. non-
vfr may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on sunday
afternoon through monday.

&&

.marine...
relatively quiet conditions are expected on lake erie for the
foreseeable future. there may be a little bit of afternoon
choppiness wednesday through friday with mild lake breeze
development. southwest flow of around 10-15 knots develops on
saturday and sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...kahn
near term...kahn/23
short term...kahn
long term...kahn
aviation...23
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
636
fxus63 kiwx 022346
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
746 pm edt wed jul 2 2025

.key messages...

- slight chance (10-20%) for a stray shower or storm thursday
afternoon.

- hot and humid friday into this weekend.

- more appreciable rain and storm chances (40-50%) return sunday
into monday.

&&

.update...
issued at 740 pm edt wed jul 2 2025

regional radar mosaic this evening indicates bulk of isolated-
scattered showers and thunderstorms have been confined to
central lk michigan vicinity extending eastward to south of
saginaw bay region. a couple of short waves in northwest flow
across the great lakes region have dampened short wave ridging
enough to allow for cooler mid level temps across central lower
mi and more favorable sfc based instability for isolated showers
and thunderstorms. an isolated shower appeared to have
attempted to develop across laporte county past few hours along
a line of enhanced cu associated with a lake michigan aided sfc
trough axis. however, more limited instability with southward
extent has limited any shower development. another convectively
enhanced short wave from last night`s central plains convection
is tracking through central il with a high based cloud deck
tracking across central illinois. can also not completely rule
out a brief shower downstream of this feature, but instability
magnitudes are even more limited south of the us 30 corridor.
thus, will keep pops below mentionable level for the evening
update.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 245 pm edt wed jul 2 2025

a mid level impulse tracking east-southeast through the central
great lakes will force a subtle (lake breeze enhanced) sfc trough
into areas mainly along/north of us 30 late this afternoon into this
evening. this feature may be enough to generate a stray shower or
two as cooling aloft potentially breaks cap in place, but nothing
more given the weak forcing and overall dearth of moisture and
instability.

thursday will feature slight warmer conditions as heights rebound
aloft in wake of this evening`s shortwave. boundary layer
moisture/instability will also see a bit of an uptick near a
boundary leftover across the upper midwest southeast into the lower
great lakes. an isolated shower or storm could focus near this
boundary and/or lake breeze during peak heating with pops limited in
the 10-20% range given an overall lack of flow/shear/forcing, along
with a tendency for dewpoints to mix out more than modeled for
lesser mlcape magnitudes locally.

a warmer, more humid air mass does become better established into
friday and saturday as an intermountain west upper ridge folds east
into the great lakes and ohio valley. friday is the transition day
with high temps and pm heat indices dependent on any lingering
convective cloud debris or outflow on the leading edge of the capped
heat dome. continued to cap pops at 10% (silent) with nbm`s highs
near 90 reasonable for now. higher confidence in saturday being the
warmest day with pm heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100f under a
mostly sunny sky as low levels moisten within increasing southwest
flow.

guidance does continue to flatten the ridge into sunday and monday
allowing an frontal boundary to drop into the vicinity with
chances for scattered convection.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 740 pm edt wed jul 2 2025

a couple of disturbances in west-northwest flow aloft will
continue making their way across the southern great lakes region
into this evening. one of these waves is dropping across eastern
wisconsin with a few isolated showers and storms developing in
advance of this feature over the past few hours. forcing from
this wave arrives just after peak heating across northern
indiana, but given some weak 500-750 j/kg surface based
instability over next few hours, cannot completely rule out an
isolated shower developing in vicinity of lake-breeze enhanced
sfc trough. some mid level subsidence/weak mid level inversion
may be a bit too much to overcome for any isolated shower
potential however. another short wave tracking across central
il appears to be tied to remnants of old convectively enhanced
short wave from last night`s central plains convection. this
forcing is entering an even less favorable downstream airmass
in terms of instability. given very limited coverage with any
showers through mid evening will maintain a dry forecast for
terminals.

mean ridge position should be far enough west for perhaps a
slightly greater isolated shower/storm coverage scenario
tomorrow afternoon and early evening, but overall weak forcing
mechanisms and limited instability argue for continued dry
terminal forecast through the period. west winds around 10
knots will become light this evening, with northwest winds of
up to 10 knots again on thursday as mixed layer develops.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
708
fxus63 kdtx 030007
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
807 pm edt wed jul 2 2025

.key messages...

- showers and strong thunderstorms continue this evening, especially
north of m-59.

- mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures into the weekend,
with max temperatures back into the lower 90s on saturday.

- chance (40-50%) for showers and thunderstorms in the sunday
afternoon - sunday night time period.

&&

.aviation...

an aggressive response of thunderstorm activity to afternoon peak
heating is in progress along and north of the i-69 corridor. this is
where a weak background pressure trough helped focus initial
updrafts which then fed off subsequent outflows into a couple of
respectable lines. mbs and fnt have the best chance of still getting
hit this evening with a storm capable of brief ifr and gusty nw
wind. ptk is on the fringe and the dtw corridor is in line to escape
effects before storms diminish/move eastward tonight. looking
upstream toward western lower mi, lake mi, wi we see additional
convection that is expected to remain west of the region as a cold
front settles southward from the upper midwest and northern great
lakes. it is expected to reach southern lower mi during thursday
morning and then stall/wash out toward the ohio border in the
afternoon. broken vfr ceiling near 5000 ft is likely in and near the
frontal zone with a renewed chance of storms focused closer to the
dtw corridor into thursday evening.

for dtw/d21 convection... thunderstorms hold north of dtw this
evening. a chance of storms returns thursday afternoon.

threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less thursday.

* low for thunderstorms this evening and thursday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt wed jul 2 2025

discussion...

thoughts have not changed much from the morning update. temperatures
in the mid 80s with dew pts in the lower 60s/around 60 this
afternoon (as of 18z) have lead to an extensive cu field with mlcapes
near 1000 j/kg north of m-59. a few showers have popped up as well.
0-6 km bulk shear is weak (under 25 knots), but slightly better wind
fields (30- 35 kts) this evening as 500 mb shortwave trough axis/cold
front arrives. no big issues with the marginal/isolated severe
threat, particularly over the thumb region, which will be closer to
the mid level cold pool over the northern great lakes. isolated
precip loaded wind gusts of 50-60 mph with a secondary hazard of
marginal hail up to 1 inch in diameter due to low wet bulb zero
heights.

the cold front looks to wash out tonight as it reaches the southern
michigan border by 12z thursday. upper level northwest confluent
flow during the day will result in general subsidence and allow for
a mainly dry day. however, with inverted surface trough in the mid
section of southern lower michigan and some moisture pooling,
mlcapes building up around 1500 j/kg draw concern for isolated
strong-marginally severe storms with some leftover decent mid level
flow and a high degree of dcape. however, mid lapse rates are weak
and very dry, drawing in question if updrafts will be strong enough
to overcome dry air entrainment. slight chance pops included for late
afternoon across the southern/southwest sections of the cwa.

upper level ridge over central north america will slowly roll over
to the east through the first half of the weekend. this will support
very warm to hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions through
saturday. with 850 mb temps reaching up to 20 c on saturday with the
moderate low level southwest flow, should have no problem with maxes
reaching into the lower 90s, with heat indices reaching into the mid
90s to possibly upper 90s.

upper level flow along the northern conus then trends to pseudo
zonal to end the weekend, with a shortwave and cold front bringing
the best chance of showers and thundestorms sunday afternoon/evening.
shrinking but good moisture plume associated with this front, as pw
values reach near 2 inches. euro ensembles suggesting 40-50 percent
chance of a tenth of an inch or greater of rainfall. sprawling high
pressure in place early next week, allowing for quiet weather and
near normal temperatures.

marine...

scattered shower and thunderstorm chances linger through the evening
with best potential focused over the southern half of lake huron. an
isolated strong storm capable of 34+ kt winds and hail can`t be
ruled out. a weak cold front settles south of the region by late
tonight resulting in generally light northwesterly flow to start
thursday. weak surface high pressure follows, setting up directly
over lake huron by late thursday maintaining lighter winds as well
as more variability in direction. an isolated shower/t-storm is
possible on the periphery of the high towards lake erie thursday
afternoon however the vast majority of the region stays dry. hotter,
more humid air returns this weekend as a warm front lifts through
the central great lakes late friday-saturday. moderate sw winds flow
the front with gusts peaking around 20kts, particularly over the
central portions of lake huron. a cold front sagging into the great
lakes then brings storm chances latter half of sunday through
monday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.