Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 101937
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
337 pm edt fri apr 10 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain exits this evening giving way to a cold night and cool
but sunny saturday.

2) temperatures warm to well above normal sunday through next
week with periods of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
widespread light rain is progressing slowly east and
southeastward across the region this afternoon along a cold
front. this rain is being enhanced by frontogenetic forcing
beneath the right entrance of a 95-105 knot h3 jet streak over
lower michigan and sw ontario rounding the base of a shortwave
trough. as this front drops southeast of the region this
evening and settles into the ohio valley tonight, strong
canadian high pressure at the surface building into the central
great lakes will quickly advect drier air into the region, so
expect a quick end to the rain behind the front. the back edge
of the rain should be near the oh/pa border by 23z, and any
leftover showers in far eastern ohio and western pa will be done
by 03z.

a chilly night in on tap as the high builds in from the north,
but northerly flow across the lake will keep lake-effect clouds
in place, so this will keep temps from really bottoming out.
expect lows to fall into the 35-40 f range. lake-effect clouds
will clear out by late saturday morning as the high builds
overhead, so expect mostly sunny skies through the afternoon.
even so, temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. the coolest temps will be near the
lakeshore given ne flow off the cold lake erie.

key message 2...
a major pattern change is still on schedule to begin sunday,
bringing well above normal temperatures that will last all of
next week, as well as active weather in the form of periodic
showers and thunderstorms. confidence is high that temperatures
will be a solid 10-15 degrees above normal sunday through
friday, but timing the individual rounds of showers and
thunderstorms remains low confidence.

a lead mid/upper shortwave trough will eject from the desert sw
sunday morning into the central great lakes by monday morning
while weakening and attempting to phase with the northern stream
jet. this will result in a weakening surface low lifting toward
northern ontario monday morning, dragging a cold front through
our region during the day. this should lead to decent coverage
of showers and thunderstorms late sunday night into monday, but
early day timing should temper any severe weather threat monday.
afterwards, a strong mid/upper low moving inland from
california monday will gradually move into the plains by
wednesday while opening up into a trough that ejects across the
great lakes while weakening by thursday. this will strengthen
deep sw flow and resultant warm/moist advection tuesday and
wednesday, so expect the front to quickly return north as a warm
front tuesday. the strongest forcing for convection looks to be
out toward the plains and mid mississippi valley tuesday and
wednesday, but weak shortwave impulses ejecting out of the main
trough in the deep sw flow combined with the broad and unstable
warm sector will lead to scattered convection each day. peak
coverage should be in the afternoon and evening hours. it is
possible that more of an organized convective system could move
in from the west tuesday night, so the swody5 has a risk for
severe weather in the far western counties, but confidence is
low since this system would likely be weakening overnight. if
organized convection occurs next week, thursday may have the
best potential as the shearing out trough described above ejects
across the great lakes and pushes a cold front into the area.
even so, continued sw flow from renewed mid/upper troughing
developing over the western conus at the end of next week will
keep warm and unstable conditions and additional thunderstorm
potential in place friday. overall, a warm and active week.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
line of showers moving through the region with ceilings down to
mvfr/ifr levels with brief restrictions in rain as well. low
ceilings begin to scatter out 00-06z, and then give way to
mainly high clouds only through 18z saturday. this is in
response to a cold front moving through, which will have winds
westerly gusting 20-30kts turning northeasterly saturday around
10kts.

outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are expected in
periodic showers and thunderstorms sunday night through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
winds now onshore 10-15kts bring wave heights 1-3ft tonight and
early saturday before becoming variable, than southeasterly late
saturday around 10kts. winds then turns southwesterly sunday
increasing to 10-20kts, then 20-30kts sunday night and wave heights
increasing rapidly away from shore into the open water zones. may
need a small craft advisory early next week due to the offshore
winds. winds remain southwesterly 15-25kts through wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 101753
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
153 pm edt fri apr 10 2026

.key messages...

- cold tonight with some frost. lows in the 30s.

- becoming very warm in the days ahead. highs well into the 70s
as early as sunday.

- starting saturday night, there is at least a 20% chance of
showers and thunderstorms almost daily as a number of
disturbances pass through.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 152 pm edt fri apr 10 2026

active weather pattern ahead with a southeast us ridge sending gulf
moisture poleward, channeled against a desert southwest trough.

a cool, crummy day to the north of a slow-moving cold front. here,
temperatures have fallen into the 40s with a steady northwest wind.
farther south, 60s prevail with a continued chance (20-40%) of rain
until the boundary clears this evening. high pressure, currently
over the missouri river valley, moves overhead resulting in a
chilly and event frosty night with lows in the 30s. we`re still
short of our median final spring freeze, and the most recent
michigan fruit reports depicts sensitivity in the 20s, so, we`ll
continue on headline-free. warmth in the coming week will
rapidly accumulate growing degree days, likely activating the
growing season in the days to come.

as high pressure shifts east sunday, the first of many upper-level
impulses lifts through texas and spills atop the retreating high.
we`ll continue to carry 20-30% chance pops, but know sunday will not
be a washout. showers, and even thunderstorms, are more widespread
monday as a warm front lifts in. the morning time of arrival and a
lack of instability ought to preclude the overall severe weather risk
locally. instead, attention will turn to tuesday (and wednesday to a
lesser extent) where the storm prediction center is already
highlighting a severe weather risk. a much better colocation of
ingredients builds tuesday as low pressure lifts over the
midwest and instability exceeds 1,000 j/kg and shear exceeds 40
knots. this is several days out, and it certainly looks like a
scenario where morning showers and clouds needs to clear before
any afternoon or evening storm initiation. stay tuned. the
trailing cold front clears our area wednesday, bringing a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms.

in the wake of this front, little change in the upper-air pattern
resulting in a continued flow of disturbances across a southeast us
ridge.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1256 pm edt fri apr 10 2026

a stalled boundary currently bisects the area from northwest to
southeast, extending from toledo, oh to fort wayne, in to
champaign, il. a few isolated showers are ongoing out ahead of
the front as it slowly sinks southeast, but kfwa and ksbn should
stay dry for the rest of the day as the front has already
passed. behind the boundary, winds are coming from the northwest
and will gradually diminish after sunset. mvfr ceilings
currently persist area-wide and will for the next few hours,
although visible satellite imagery shows that clearing is
ongoing to our northwest. expect clearing skies throughout the
afternoon and evening, with vfr ceilings returning by 00z
tonight. light northerly winds and few clouds will make for a
very quiet overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 101831
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
231 pm edt fri apr 10 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool conditions will prevail saturday with plenty of
sunshine.

- a significant warming trend begins sunday and persists
through much of the work week. this pattern will bring breezy
conditions and periodic chances of showers and strong thundestorms.

&&

.discussion...

a cold front transitioned south of the border around midday,
displacing the bulk of the antecedent precipitation. an upper-level
shortwave trough is currently tracking through the central great
lakes; weak inverted surface troughing and modest cape, coupled with
steepening low-level lapse rates under cold air advection, may be
sufficient to initiate isolated light showers/sprinkles over
northern areas through the early evening. thereafter, a strong
surface high-pressure center arrives by saturday morning. strong
subsidence and drying are indicated, which should ensure clearing
skies late tonight. while a weak signal for shallow ground fog
exists, confidence is too low to include in the zones.

following a seasonably cool saturday, warm spring temperatures in
the 70s look to persist for an extended period, as 850 mb
temperatures rise into the 10-13c range. prolonged southwesterly
flow over the central/southern plains will advect a warm, moist
airmass into the region. dew points are expected to reach the lower
60s by early next week as the primary warm front lifts north on
sunday. if the warm front cleanly clears southeast michigan sunday
afternoon, wind gusts near 40 mph will be possible in the warm
sector, aided by deepening mixing layers tapping into the 45+ kt low-
level jet.

sufficient instability will exist to support unsettled weather, with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the
forecast period. convective timing will influence maximum
temperatures and potential severe weather risk, as enhanced mid-
level flow (0-6 km bulk shear of 35-60 kt) remains established over
the great lakes. a series of low-pressure systems tracking through
the western great lakes will provide the focus for lift; however,
exact timing and placement remain subject to revision due to high
variability within the ecmwf (euro) ensemble guidance.

a high-amplitude upper-level trough originating in the gulf of
alaska is projected to arrive toward the end of the work week,
ushering in a cooler, more stable airmass by the weekend.

&&

.marine...

weaker north-northwesterly gradient flow has become established over
the central great lakes this afternoon as a deep-layer trough axis
moves across the northern waterways. associated downstream surface
pressure falls have already cleared the eastern great lakes, which
has allowed high pressure to build into the region from the west.
this ensures more tranquil conditions tonight and saturday as the
ridge centers over lower michigan. the stable system migrates east
by saturday evening, and return flow eventually flips weak winds
south-southeasterly. active weather returns sunday morning, with
intervals through wednesday, due to several passing disturbances.
potential still exists for gusts to gales, mainly late sunday into
monday. main concern will be for portions of southern lake huron.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt fri apr 10 2026

aviation...

a frontal boundary has settled just south of michigan with an ifr
cloud deck and northerly winds to start the taf period across
southeast michigan. should experience a gradually ceiling
improvement to mvfr into the evening and overnight. a low pressure
system to the north will try and generate some shower activity
across mbs and possibly fnt. coverage looks isolated enough to
leave out of tafs for now, but may need amendment if confidence
increases for the light shower activity. drier air scatters out the
low clouds from north to south towards sunrise tomorrow bringing vfr
skies by mid morning tomorrow. winds will also shift more
northeasterly tonight into tomorrow morning.

for dtw...ifr to mvfr ceilings this afternoon through this evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.