Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
450
fxus61 kcle 060705
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
305 am edt sun sep 6 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) seasonable and mainly dry weather will continue into tuesday.

2) a brief period of above average temperatures will arrive on
wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will persist across the great lakes region through
labor day weekend, ushering in seasonable and less humid
weather. highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows
generally in the 50s, though some isolated 40s are possible,
especially across the interior areas sunday night into monday
morning. a few lake-enhanced showers are possible later this
morning and afternoon, though coverage remains uncertain given
the latest satellite imagery revealing large pockets of dry air
across the region associated with the high pressure subsidence.


key message 2...
a strong upper-level trough will move east through the upper
great lakes on wednesday, ushering in strong warm air advection
across the lower great lakes and midwest. a brief period of
heat and humidity will return across the region as heat indices
reach the low to mid-90s in some spots wednesday afternoon. the
latest guidance indicates a narrow region of instability
developing across the area in the midst of seasonably-strong mid
and upper-level flow which could be favorable for some stronger
storms in the afternoon and evening, though there remains
uncertainty on coverage. cooler and less humid weather will
return across the region thursday into friday as a cold front
moves east through the area and high pressure returns.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
vfr. mainly clear overnight. sct-bkn045 cumulus field expected
with daytime heating sunday. northeast winds 10kts, although cle
could gust to 15-18kts in the afternoon.

outlook...non- vfr possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
choppy marine conditions (waves 2 to 3 feet at times) will
continue in the afternoon and evening hours over the next couple
of days as onshore flow becomes diurnally enhanced, resulting in
northeast flow up to 15 knots in some instances. flow will
shift towards the southwest ahead of the next system on
wednesday, with winds increasing into the 15 to 25 knot range.
small craft advisories may be needed during this timeframe.
winds will then shift towards the west to northwest behind a
cold front on thursday, 10 to 15 knots.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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944
fxus63 kiwx 060706
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
306 am edt sun sep 6 2026

.key messages...

- remainder of the holiday weekend will be dry and pleasant.

- temperatures and humidity will increase somewhat tuesday into
wednesday, but not as hot as last week

- 20% to 40% chance of showers and storms wednesday into
thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 am edt sun sep 6 2026

canadian high pressure has temporarily displaced a towering
500-mb ridge to our west for the remainder of the labor day
weekend. our coolest day of the week appears to be today with
high temperatures generally in the upper-70s; perhaps 80 degrees
toward lafayette. high pressure promotes dry conditions through
at least wednesday morning but we will see a subtle warming
trend beyond today as return southerly flow, and the resumption
of upper-level ridging, eventually nudges temperatures back
toward 90 degrees. wednesday, those south of the us 24 corridor
have a 25-30% chance of seeing a 90-degree temperature per
global ensembles.

to our north midweek, low pressure is wrapping up over western
ontario with an occluded/cold front dropping south into the midwest.
moisture return into this front is lackluster and the front stalls
atop the now-depressed upper-level ridge. this results in
fairly modest rain chances at 20-40% wednesday through thursday
morning. beyond this, there is growing concensus that a zonal
but progressive upper-air pattern takes shape presenting passing
chances for rain and storms while pushing temperatures near to
slightly above normal (normals of 77/54 by late next week).

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 112 am edt sun sep 6 2026

high pressure just north of the great lakes will be in play
today, bringing sct to few clouds and a light northeast wind.
preexisting stratus is generally shifting southwest away from
the terminals and this trend is expected to continue.
temperature and dew point spreads this morning appear to
preclude fog concerns, along with wind above 5kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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419
fxus63 kdtx 060700
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 am edt sun sep 6 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures with lower humidity with exist through
early next week.

- next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives tuesday night
into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

sfc high pressure will strengthen as it expands across the great
lakes today through labor day amid rising mid level geopotential
heights across the region. northeasterly low level winds circulating
around this sfc high have been advecting a drier airmass across se
mi, characterized by sfc dewpoints in the 50s. mid level subsidence
will suppress diurnal mixing depths this afternoon capping afternoon
highs in the 70s. steep low level lapse rates and flow off lake huron
will also result in a fair amount of diurnal cumulus this afternoon.
the influence of the sfc high and mid level ridging will sustain a
dry forecast through tuesday. as the sfc high pressure departs across
the eastern great lakes labor day into tuesday there will be a
gradual veering of the low level flow from easterly to southerly by
tuesday, supporting a gradual warming trend. the influence of the sfc
high and broad subsidence will maintain relatively tranquil
conditions to end the holiday weekend and start the work week. recent
rainfall, an easterly component to the surface winds off the lakes
and nocturnal boundary layer decoupling suggests some semblance of a
fog potential the next couple of nights.

damping of the mid level ridge axis over the great lakes is forecast
mid week as a progressive longer wavelength trough originating from
the pacific northwest drives a cold front across the forecast area
in the tuesday night/wednesday time frame. a narrow axis of deep
layer moisture is forecast to advect into se mi along/ahead of this
front. while strong mid level wind fields will contribute to adequate
deep layer shear, gfs/ecmwf ensemble members indicate an overall
weakly unstable environment across se mi. this would potentially
limit the thunderstorm and severe weather risk. shower chances will
still remain warranted, with ensemble members suggesting the higher
rain chances across the northern portions of the forecast area where
models indicate a little better kinematic forcing.

&&

.marine...

favorable marine conditions are forecast through the rest of the
weekend as high pressure settles over the central great lakes. this
will promote stable and mainly dry conditions into early next week
with prevailing tranquility. the next chance for increasing winds
and waves arrives tuesday night into wednesday ahead of a low
pressure system. strengthening gulf-modified southwesterly flow and
the low`s associated warm then cold fronts should lead to rising
thunderstorm chances midweek.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 151 am edt sun sep 6 2026

aviation...

quiet night across the region as high pressure has a firm grip on
the area in the wake of the cold frontal passage. mainly vfr
conditions are expected with the drier northeast flow, but temps are
quickly falling now as the winds drop off so there is a chance of
some shallow fog. will monitor satellite trends and obs to see if a
short period of reduced vsbys needs to be added this morning.
diurnal cu will develop this afternoon for several hours before
skies again go clear tonight.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not expected through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and sunday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......kgk
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.