Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
503
fxus61 kcle 191208
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
808 am edt sat sep 19 2026

.what has changed...
with this update, slowed the progression of showers east across
the area today given current trends and placement of the
boundaries. widespread precipitation is still expected tonight
into sunday with similar rainfall totals as previous forecasts.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers with isolated thunderstorms will gradually spread east
across the area today, becoming more widespread tonight. heavy
rainfall and localized flooding remain the primary concerns.

2) an unsettled weather pattern lingers through much of next week
bringing the potential for multiple rounds of precipitation and
cooler temperatures.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
this morning, a mid-level ridge over the gulf coast is resulting in a
near zonal flow over much of the upper us with a developing trough
over the rocky mountain region. widespread showers are being
observed upstream of the area as an upper level shortwave provides
energy for development on the northern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. this pattern will slowly drift east, resulting
in the showers to gradually spread east across the area today.
initial showers this morning are expected to only impact the
western/southwestern counties as development and storm motion
follows the instability gradient. however, with a weakening high
pressure centered over the northern great lakes pushes east, a warm
front associated with a surface low over midwest will be able to
nudge further north towards the cwa. this boundary will likely
become the focus for additional shower development and will
ultimately act as a path that the low pressure will follow into the
southern great lakes region. as this boundary and the low get closer
to the area tonight, showers are expected to become widespread
across the entire area with periods of heavy rain possible
overnight. on sunday, this low will drag a strong cold front
southeast through the area, again enhancing shower and possible
thunderstorms development along it. conditions should begin to dry
out from north to south on sunday afternoon as this boundary pushes
through.

there remains some uncertainty with this forecast, especially in
regards to how far north the aforementioned warm front will lift,
however confidence continue to grow in regards to the potential for
heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding. the current
forecast through sunday afternoon has 1-1.5 inches of rain falling
along a line from cleveland to youngstown and west with portions of
far ne oh and nw pa expected to get between 0.75-1 inch of rainfall.
deepening warm cloud layers and anonymously high pwat values are
expected to couple with storm motion parallel to the flow and result
in showers training. in areas impacted by this training, high qpf
values can be expected. to highlight this concern, wpc has placed
much of the area in a day 1 slight (2 of 4) ero with portions of ne
oh and nw pa in a day 1 marginal (1 of 4) ero. given the potential
for showers, widespread cloud cover, and the area likely staying
north of the warm front, there is minimal risk of severe weather
although a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. high
temperatures today and sunday will climb into the 70s with overnight
lows tonight dropping into the 60s.

key message 2...
an active weather pattern is expected to persist through much of
next week as multiple midlevel troughs move east across the northern
us, bringing the chance for multiple rounds of precipitation and the
first real taste of fall. some models have continued to suggest a
cut off low developing over the region midweek and persisting
through late week. this pattern would support a northerly flow,
keeping cool temperatures around, but given model divergence this
far out and the inherent uncertainty, timing of any precipitation
after midweek and the exact temperatures may adjust some in coming
forecasts. the current forecast suggests that highs beginning on
monday into next weekend will be in the 60s with overnight lows
dropping into the 50s with patches in the 40s across nwpa.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions are in place to start the period but will see
multiple rounds of showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
aviation conditions will be variable in showers today then
decline tonight. regional radars show light showers spreading
east across lake erie this morning. most of this has been
sprinkles given dry air in the low levels and high cloud bases.
an area of thunderstorms over southwest lower michigan will
track southeast this morning, impacting tol/fdy between 15-18z.
instability decreases as you move east so terminals in north
central ohio may only see rain as the thunderstorms favor a
trajectory towards cmh. brief ifr visibilities are possible in
thunderstorms. while scattered light rain showers may continue
at times today, the next big push of rain is expected to be
after 06z tonight. this will likely bring a more steady rain
with an expansion of mvfr conditions and possibly ifr
conditions. thunderstorms are also possible but confidence was
too low to include in the terminals.

east winds of 5-10 knots will trend towards southeast, except
northeasterly at cle/eri.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
as high pressure begins to shift out of the region, a warm front is
expected to slowly push north towards the southern great lakes
today. this will allow winds to remain from the east at 5-15 knots
with nearshore waves 2 feet or less. this aforementioned front will
act as a path for a low pressure system to travel from the midwest
towards lake erie by sunday. this will result in shifting and
strengthening winds to be from the northeast at 15-20 knots by sunday
afternoon. this will result in waves building to 3-5 feet and this
period will likely be the start of prolonged hazardous marine
conditions across lake erie. as this low slowly shifts east, a
surface trough with a strong gradient will result in northeast winds
increasing to 20-25 knots beginning sunday night and possibly
persisting into mid-week. at times, these winds may even approach
gales, although the timing and duration of that potential remains
low. as these winds increase and persist, waves across lake erie are
expected to build to 6-8 feet with locally higher waves possible.
this period will be extremely dangerous to small crafts and will
likely increase rip currents along the southern shore of the lake. a
long duration small craft advisory will be needed as well as a beach
hazards statement through at least wednesday and will have to
monitor for any additional time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
858
fxus63 kiwx 191006
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
606 am edt sat sep 19 2026

.key messages...

- several rounds of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms this weekend.
a flash flood watch remains in effect for portions of the
forecast area.

- low chances for scattered rain showers linger into the first half
of next week.

- cooler next week with highs only in the 60s monday through
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 245 am edt sat sep 19 2026

well advertised return to periodically wet/stormy wx on track for
this weekend as another moisture laden frontal zone sets up over the
area. convectively enhanced mid level perturbations tracking east
into the lower great lakes, in tandem with several bouts of moisture
transport/convergence within nocturnal low level jets, will aid in
facilitating these episodes of primarily elevated convection and
locally heavy rainfall.

first batch to watch over far southern wi (as of 06z) remains on
track to drop southeast through the area this morning into early
this afternoon with only minor adjustments made to hourly pops and
qpf. this activity overall may undergo a slight weakening trending
with southeastward progression into areas along and southeast of the
us 24 corridor mid morning-early afternoon as it outpaces the
low level jet and associated convergence/mucape axis. maybe a
quarter of an inch southeast to as much an inch or so up near the
in/mi border with this initial round.

a general lull in precip coverage/chances is still anticipated for
most of the area mid afternoon through mid evening in between upper
level impulses. available model guidance continues to hint at
another shortwave and theta-e surge tonight, focusing locally heavy
rain and embedded thunder mainly along and north of the us 30
corridor. another round then sunday afternoon/evening possible,
especially if/where any boundary layer heating can occur
resulting in heavier convective elements. localized lowland and
river/stream flooding, along with flash flooding, remains a
concern given the saturated ground and opportunties for training
elevated convection in this 1.8-2.0 inch pwat air mass. no
changes were made to the flood watch for now (in effect through
sunday morning). latest guidance does favor areas north of the
us 30 corridor for higher probs for 1-3"+ plus. luckily lower
probs to the south, though any additional rain in areas just
south of fort wayne will further exacerbate ongoing high water
issues.

suppression of the height field and frontal zone expected monday into
tuesday will result in cool conditions and lower chances for
lighter/scattered rain showers. high pressure building into the
northern great lakes will definitely usher in some cooler and drier
low level air within northeasterly flow.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 0606 am edt sat sep 19 2026

convection over northern il and lake mi remain on track to drop
through northern in this morning into early this afternoon,
best chances for significant vis restrictions in heavy rain
13-16z at ksbn, and 15-17z at kfwa. primarily mvfr to low vfr
conditions otherwise today with easterly winds gusting to 20
knots along and in advance of storms this morning. another round
of convection can be expected tonight, especially at ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through sunday morning for inz005>009-012-014-015-
017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch through sunday morning for ohz015-024.
mi...flood watch through sunday morning for miz078>080-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
974
fxus63 kdtx 191047
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
647 am edt sat sep 19 2026

.key messages...

- periods of rain today through early sunday with some embedded
heavier rainfall possible at times.

- a cool and cloudy pattern is expected through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

a steady influx of moisture downstream of emerging low pressure
across the midwest will bring potential for periodic bouts of
showers this taf period, while inducing a steady decline in cloud
base with time. initial round of showers will see some increase in
coverage this morning, but with some residual influence of
prevailing low level northeast flow ensuring primarily vfr
conditions. an increasing probability for ceiling height to encroach
mvfr levels this afternoon as low level moistening gains greater
traction within additional pockets of light showers. widespread mvfr
likely by this evening and into tonight as coverage of rainfall
potentially increases. the probability exists for some areas of ifr
to develop overnight. northeast winds veering toward the east
tonight.

d21/dtw convection...low potential exists for isolated embedded
thunderstorms within periods of showers today.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning. high this afternoon
through tonight.

* low in thunderstorms through tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 am edt sat sep 19 2026

discussion...

the large scale pattern is set up for multiple rounds of rainfall
over the next 48 hours. a broad anticylone over the lower
mississippi valley and a cutoff low drifting eastward over the
intermountain west work together to steer a plume of deep moisture
across the midwest. meanwhile an upper jet entrance region tightens
a elevated baroclinic zone over the great lakes, ensuring plenty of
synoptic and mesoscale support for ascent as the inbound moisture
interacts with the steepening isentropic surfaces. a 35 to 40 kt llj
has been fueling a narrow axis of convection over mn/wi this morning
with signs of southeastward propagation as the southern flank begins
to tap into the elevated instability gradient situated from eastern
ia into the ohio valley. the resulting mcs is forecast to follow
this gradient as the llj veers to westerly over the next few hours,
presenting a window for thunderstorms and heavier rain to affect
areas south of i-94 later this morning. otherwise, periodic light to
moderate rain is anticipated for much of se mi through the morning
and early afternoon with potential for a lull mid to late afternoon
into this evening. most areas are favored to see up to around a
quarter to half inch through this evening, but a few areas could
receive in excess of 1 inch depending on the track and evolution of
the mcs this morning.

the next target for higher coverage of rain arrives overnight and
into early sunday as the llj reestablishes just downstream of a 850-
700mb trough. a couple factors highlight potential for heavier rates
to occur between midnight and 8am sunday. 1) pwat maximizes in the
1.50 to 2.00" range while warm cloud depth builds to 12+ kft and
mucape increases on the order of 250 to 500 j/kg, indicating an
environment supportive of efficient downpours more characteristic of
mid-summer. 2) corfidi vector magnitude falls below 10 kt indicating
potential for slow-moving and training showers. this is supported by
several hi-res runs that develop a surface low and a narrow
deformation band in the vicinity. if this band develops, potential
exists for additional localized rainfall totals in excess of an inch
overnight, much of which could fall over a 1 to 3 hour window. href
neighborhood qpf probabilities offer a 30% chance for rates over
1"/hr. worth noting there remains a separate camp of solutions that
favor development of a more organized mcs over northern il. this is
shown to track southeast along the cape gradient and consume much of
the moisture feed, shunting the heavier rain threat to our south. so
potential exists for an axis of heavier rainfall early sunday but
confidence remains low on how the frontal zone evolves and the
placement of any localized focused ascent.

strong subsidence emerges over northern ontario on sunday, producing
a broad surface ridge that expands across the northern great lakes
with increasing influence of dry northeast wind. showers may linger
near/south of metro detroit early in the day but should eventually
retreat across the stateline leaving mostly dry but breezy and cool
conditions late sunday through monday. a chance of unsettled showery
weather returns late tuesday into wednesday and possibly thursday as
the previously mentioned cutoff low arrives from the west. dry
weather looks to return by late week as a low tracks up the east
coast, favoring a ring of subsidence over the great lakes.

marine...

high pressure has drifted east and is now centered over the
ontario/quebec border but is trying to hold on across a portion of
the eastern great lakes. winds will be southeasterly and largely
under 20 knots today as we are positioned just north of a frontal
boundary with a low pressure system riding along the front across
southern mi. widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the system today and tonight, mainly focused over the
southern half of the region. tightening of the gradient on the
backside of the exiting low will ramp northeast winds back up on
sunday reaching 25 to 30 knots. these increased winds will carry
into monday as well which may necessitate additional headlines.

hydrology...

a low pressure system approaching from the plains brings periodic
showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms to the area this
weekend. the first round of rainfall spreads across the area this
morning with most locations seeing light to moderate rainfall
through early afternoon. potential exists for a brief period of
heavier rain and some thunderstorms later this morning, mainly along
or south of the i-94 corridor. rainfall totals to around 1 inch will
be possible if this develops. a relative lull in coverage is then
forecast later this afternoon and evening.

the next round is expected to move in late this evening and continue
into the early morning on sunday. this period carries a higher
probability for moderate to heavy rates with potential for
training/repeated showers, especially for areas south of m-59.
additional rainfall in excess of 1 inch will be possible, much of
which may fall within a 1 to 3 hour window. additional lighter
showers may continue through early sunday with precip chances
ending by late sunday.

weekend total rainfall amounts are forecast to range between a half
inch and 2 inches for most of the area. a conditional threat for
over 2 inches exists for any area that sees repeated rounds of
heavier showers or storms. this would be most likely to occur south
of a line from lansing to detroit. the longer duration of the
rainfall will mitigate widespread flooding concerns, but ponding and
urban flooding will be possible where any localized heavier rainfall
occurs.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......drk
hydrology....tf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.