Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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088
fxus61 kcle 270626
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
226 am edt mon jul 27 2026

.what has changed...
the evolution of mcs development tonight and how it will translate
through the day today and later tonight will continue to be in
flux.

&&

.key messages...
1) rounds of convection possible today and tonight, hinging on the
initial systems this morning.

2) cooler airmass and high pressure into the end of the week.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
all eyes this morning will be on the developing thunderstorm
complexes currently in northern minnesota and over eastern lake
superior. evolution has been slow thus far and ir imagery showing
cloud top cooling is minimal at this point although growing in size
over whitefish bay, and expect enhancement over the next few hours.
bulk shear vectors will take these developing complexes
southeastward into the southern great lakes, where cams/rapid update
models have had a hard time providing any consistency to their
solutions on where mcss will go and if/when they decay. as they move
towards the cleveland cwa, plenty of elevated instability to work
with, but atmospheric layer above the boundary layer needs some work
in terms of rh as it is pretty dry for the time being. outside of
the drier layer of air aloft, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and
usable mid level lapse rates exist. however, the timing of the mcs
works against it for our area as it tracks southeastward towards
dawn, and will likely suffer decay as cloud tops are forced to warm
with minimal low level jet energy in place. that said, there is an
expectation of a few lingering clusters of showers or showers with
isolated thunder this morning from the lake superior mcs. further
west, the minnesota system is one that hi res models and cams are
suggesting will survive into the daytime, and could affect our cwa
later today. ultimately, the forecast challenge here is that the
rest of the day and into the overnight is likely going to rely on
what happens with these initial systems, how long it takes or if the
atmosphere needs to recover from them, if there are lingering wake
mcvs, etc. expect an evolving forecast, but know that the chances
for convective activity will exist from this afternoon into the
overnight hours.

key message 2...
a cold front will come through tuesday morning with a wholesale
airmass change with cooler and drier air in place. additional upper
trough axes will swing through the cwa north to south, and the
onshore flow coupled with this could generate showers with some lake
enhancement as the 850mb temperatures drop into the lower teens.
high pressure will then settle into the southern great lakes for the
end of the week with temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s
through thursday.


&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
primarily vfr conditions are expected to persist at most
terminals through the overnight hours. some patchy fog remains
possible at inland terminals from roughly 08z/mon to 12z/mon.
there will multiple periods where showers and thunderstorms
will be possible over terminals.

the first round comes near daybreak across northwest ohio
terminals as hi-res guidance continues to show a decaying mcs
sinking south across lower michigan into northern
indiana/northwest ohio near 11z/mon. have the highest confidence
in ts at ktol with this initial decaying mcs. however, have put
tempo groups between 12z/mon to 15z/mon at ktol/kfdy for tsra
impacts. there`s a non- zero chance that some lingering
thunderstorms reach as far east as kcle early this morning, but
opted for a prevailing vcts as confidence is lower the further
east you go.

there remains a large model spread between hi-res members for
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the great
lakes and ohio valley region during the day today and again this
evening/overnight. one possible outcome is another decaying mcs
diving southeast from wisconsin towards western ohio later this
evening. given confidence levels, have prob30 this afternoon
into this evening for this round.

light and variable winds tonight will become southwesterly at
8-12 knots by monday afternoon with isolated gusts up to 20
knots possible at western terminals.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms monday morning through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
light winds will increase to southwest winds 8-12 knots this
morning. winds will shift southerly and gradually increase to
15-20 knots this evening before eventually turning northerly at
20-25 knots by tuesday morning. northerly winds continue
through wednesday. given elevated onshore flow wave heights are
expected to build to 3-6 feet both tuesday and wednesday. will
likely need small craft advisories and beach hazard statements
for this timeframe. high pressure will approach from the west
allowing for northerly winds 15-25 knots to diminish to 10-15
knots by thursday morning before winds become light and variable
on friday.

a series of weakening thunderstorm complexes moving in the
vicinity of lake erie remain possible through tonight. winds and
waves may be locally higher in any thunderstorm that does move
over the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 270937
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
537 am edt mon jul 27 2026

.key messages...

- there is an enhanced risk for severe weather today. a line of
strong to severe storms is likely to quickly move through the
area from north to south between 2 to 8 pm edt.

- damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph will be the main threat,
with potential for scattered significant gusts over 75 mph.
an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- additional scattered storms possible this evening although the
severe threat will be much lower.

- dry and seasonable tuesday through thursday.

- high swim risk tuesday for southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 am edt mon jul 27 2026

our area has been upgraded into an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for
severe weather with strong to severe storms likely later today.
today`s severe weather setup is becoming more clear and confidence
is increasing as model guidance (especially recent runs of the hrrr)
points towards a strong mcs pushing through this afternoon and early
evening. radar and satellite trends over the past 6-12 hours show
that convection has been slow to develop overnight in minnesota and
wisconsin, which means timing has shifted towards the the
afternoon into the evening for strong to severe storms in our
forecast area. we continue to monitor ongoing thunderstorms
over northeast minnesota and northern wisconsin, as this
activity should intensity as it propagates south/southeast along
the periphery of the upper level ridge into michigan and
eventually northern indiana and northwest ohio by early to mid
afternoon. there is still some uncertainty on exact track and
timing of storms but the best timing appears to be between 2
edt to 8 pm edt today. with a lack of storms in the area this
morning, this allows the airmass overhead ample time to heat up
and destabilize before storms come through around peak diurnal
heating. highs are expected to be near 90s today with dewpoints
in the 70s, which should fuel sbcape values of up to 2500-4000
j/kg by early afternoon. shear is expected to be around 30 to 40
kts and mid level lapse rates look favorable around 7-8 c/km.
these are favorable parameters that will support a threat for
damaging winds of 60-70 mph. there is potential for significant
gusts over 75 mph as cig 1 hatching has been added for our
entire forecast area by spc in the new day 1 outlook. an
isolated brief tornado or two is also possible, especially with
o-1 km srh values of 150-250 m2/s2.

additional scattered storms are possible after 8 pm along a diffuse
frontal boundary that tracks northwest to southeast, potentially
clipping northeast indiana and northwest ohio. have maintained nbm
pops from 8 pm edt tonight to 2 am edt tuesday given considerable
uncertainty. the severe threat should be much lower with these
storms given the likelihood for a stronger mcs earlier in the day as
mentioned above.

the good news is that after this evening, the threat for severe
weather will be over and we will have several dry days ahead. a cold
front will sweep through tuesday, setting the stage for several days
with highs in the mid 80s as high pressure builds over the great
lakes. it will be dry at least through thursday with intermittent
low chances (20-30%) for rain/storm returning by friday and into the
weekend.

additionally, as winds shift to become northwesterly on tuesday,
dangerous swimming conditions are expected to develop for southeast
lake michigan beaches on tuesday. waves of 3 to 5 feet tuesday
morning will build to 7 to 10 feet by tuesday afternoon/evening.
with direct onshore flow, strong structural, rip, and longshore
currents are expected. structural currents will be especially strong
on the north side of piers. stay out of the water and stay off of
the piers! beach hazards statements have been issued for la porte
county, in and berrien county, mi from early tuesday through
daybreak wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 533 am edt mon jul 27 2026

the previous forecast remains on track and only a few changes
were made for the 12z tafs. there has been some patchy fog
developing in northwest indiana so added a brief tempo group for
this at ksbn, where visibility recently dropped to 4sm. dry
conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours. we
are monitoring convection in wisconsin and minnesota this
morning that is expected to strengthen as it moves
south/southeast today. a line of storms is expected to move
through our forecast area from north to south from 18z today to
00z tonight. have switched the prob30 groups to prevailing mvfr
ceilings and visibilities this afternoon and evening at ksbn and
kfwa due to increased confidence. damaging winds will be the
main threat as storms may be strong to severe with gusts in
excess of 50 kts. the potential is there for ifr ceilings and
visibilities as well but will defer this to later taf updates
until confidence increases. outside of storms, winds will still
be breezy out of the southwest this afternoon and evening with
gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from late tonight through wednesday
morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from late tonight through wednesday
morning for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am tuesday to 2 am edt wednesday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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638
fxus63 kdtx 271001
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
601 am edt mon jul 27 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast today, some of
which may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

- dry and a little cooler weather will dominate the mid week period.

&&

.aviation...

a long and narrow band of thunderstorms extends from northern
minnesota to southern lake michigan at issuance, with a more
vigorous cluster of convection observed just north of the
international border. this convection is forecast to organize
upstream through the morning before tracking into the western great
lakes this afternoon. whether this tracks far enough east to impact
the terminals is still uncertain, with added uncertainty given how
poorly models are handling the leading band of convection. a second
window for showers and possible thunderstorms also exists later this
evening, just ahead of the frontal passage. the amount of remaining
instability will be a large factor in thunder potential, which will
be fully cleared out by early tuesday morning with the frontal
passage. there is potential for severe weather mainly focused this
afternoon and evening, with damaging winds to 70 mph being the main
concern. the front will be marked by a quick shift to northwest flow
and lowering ceilings that persist through tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorm chances increase into the
afternoon as activity organizes over the upper midwest and tracks
into lower michigan. low confidence still in how far east the
thunderstorms will track, but if they do reach the airspace, timing
looks to be in the 17z to 22z window. a second window for thunder
exists later this evening along the cold front, between roughly 02z
and 08z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today and tonight. high by
tuesday morning.

* medium for thunderstorms this afternoon-evening. low overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 am edt mon jul 27 2026

discussion...

the potential for clusters of showers/thunderstorms today and
continued spread among hi res solutions in their forecast evolution
of convection during the first half of the day leads to continued
uncertainty with respect to timing and severe weather potential.
frequent meso anaylsis throughout the day will be in order to fully
guage severe potential through the course of today.

overnight meso analysis indicates the edge of the elevated mixed
layer extending into lower michigan, contributing to 0-3km mu cape
of 1500 to 2000 j/kg. regional radar mosaic shows an axis of
convection extending along the edge of the mid level cap and within
the gradient of a high instability axis extending from the arrowhead
of minnesota down to northeast wisconsin. another cluster of
thunderstorms over eastern upper mi is tied to a mid level short
wave impulse, forecast to slide across lake huron and portions of se
mi early this morning. this will at least offer the potential for
elevated convection to slide into portions of the forecast area from
the north early. veering of the low level inflow across the western
great lakes this morning will attempt to drive an influx of higher
sfc based instability into southern lower mi. this will be
contingent upon the evolution of convection across wisconsin/ne
minnesota and the extent of any elevated morning convection dropping
into the area from the north. the potential for the aforementioned
convection to the northwest to evolve into a forward propagating mcs
with a robust rear inflow jet has resulted in spc upgrading sw lower
mi and the swrn portions of the dtx cwa from a slight to enhanced
risk.

stronger larger scale ascent along the nose of a 110 knot upper jet
and additional mid level short wave energy will arrive across srn mi
late this afternoon and evening. this will support a high
probability of showers and thunderstorms. severe weather potential
during this time period will have a large dependance on the coverage
of early day convection and the efficiency with which it erodes the
instability resorvoir if at all. the variation in how hi res
solutions handle early day convection also results in a wide array
of forecast storm relative helicity and mid level shear values. this
again highlights the importance frequent meso analysis will have
during the course of the day.

mid level trough amplification across the eastern great lakes
overnight into tuesday will drive cooler and less humid air into
lower mi, which will persist through mid week. model soundings
suggest the depth of diurnal cu development on tuesday may support a
few light showers/sprinkes. mid level anticyclonic flow and sfc high
pressure will envelop the region by wednesday, warranting a dry
forecast.

marine...

a low pressure system tracks across the northern great lakes today.
thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage and
intensity with this system, especially along the trailing cold front
that brings a chance of severe thunderstorms as it moves through the
region in the afternoon and evening. outside of storms, wind and
waves are low until the northerly wind shift post front late today
night into tuesday when speeds likely reach 25 to 30 knots over
southern lake huron. small craft advisories will likely be needed as
elevated waves build over the southern lake huron basin. winds
slowly diminish on wednesday as large area of high pressure over the
western great lakes slowly advances east, arriving on thursday. this
will assure dry conditions for those days.

hydrology...

shower and thunderstorms will be possible at any time today. more
widespread convection is expected from late afternoon through
evening. intense rainfall rates will be possible with some of the
thunderstorms. probabilities for total rainfall between a quarter
inch and three quarters inch are moderate to high. probabilities for
rainfall totals over an inch remain low (less than 20 percent).
however, some localized higher totals are certainly possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...sc
marine.......sf
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.