Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
659 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

.what has changed...
- a freeze warning remains in effect from 11 pm today to 11 am edt
tomorrow for all of north-central oh and nw pa.

- a freeze watch has been issued for most of our cwa, except
lucas, ottawa, sandusky, wood, and hancock counties. this
watch is in effect from 8 pm tomorrow to 10 am tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) unusually-cold air temperatures persist through monday night.
frost and sub-32f low temperatures are a concern tonight and monday
night. in addition, lake-effect rain, mixing with and then changing
to snow, is expected this evening into monday morning in north-central
oh and especially farther east.

2.) an overall warming trend begins this tuesday and should continue
through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through monday morning as a
primary mid/upper-level trough axis moves from the central great
lakes to the northeast united states. at the surface, a
secondary cold front sweeps sse`ward through our region this
evening and is followed by a ridge building from the northern
great plains. during monday afternoon through monday night, a
shortwave ridge embedded in nw`erly flow aloft builds generally
from the west. simultaneously, the surface portion of the ridge
crests e`ward across our cwa and then continues to affect our
region as the surface ridge axis becomes located near the
northern and central appalachians by daybreak tuesday. this
weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain
a net low-level caa regime and unusually-cold air temperatures
in our area. overnight lows should reach mainly the lower 20`s
to lower 30`s around daybreak monday, which have prompted the
freeze warning. frost should form around daybreak from roughly
western lucas county to western knox county due to greater
radiational cooling this evening through daybreak courtesy of
the following: considerable clearing amidst stabilizing
subsidence and easing surface winds, both of which will
accompany the building ridge. on monday, late afternoon highs
should reach only the mid 30`s to upper 40`s as colder air
continues to overspread our region generally from the northwest.
given the expected evolution of the ridge, overall clearing of
our sky and easing of our regional surface winds monday evening
through daybreak tuesday should contribute to significant
radiational cooling and lows reaching the 20`s to mid 30`s in
our region. hence, a freeze watch has been issued for most of
our cwa.

scattered rain showers are expected the rest of this afternoon
through evening in response to moist isentropic ascent aloft,
ahead of a shortwave trough axis, low-level convergence and
sufficiently-moist ascent along the secondary cold front, and
eventual development of lake-effect precip (lep) over and
generally southeast of lake erie, behind the cold front. self-
destructive sunshine will contribute to the development of
these showers through this early evening. continued caa at the
surface and aloft and the wet-bulb effect should allow rain to
mix with or change to wet snow, especially this evening and from
north-central oh to nw pa. any snow accumulations by midnight
tonight should be one inch or less and confined to the higher
terrain of nw pa and the higher terrain of geauga county and
vicinity in ne oh. additional lep, mainly in the form of snow,
is expected over and generally southeast of central and eastern
lake erie monday morning as a nw`erly mean low-level flow of
unusually-cold/sufficiently-moist air persists over/downwind of
the ~10c lake. the most-persistent snow, steady to heavy at
times, should be focused across ashtabula county, western erie
and crawford counties, pa, and vicinity due to an upstream
moisture connection to lake huron and resulting corridor of
greater lake-induced cape over lake erie. additional snow
accumulations should be one inch or less from north-central oh
to nw pa due, in part to the precip expected to be isolated to
scattered and thus periodic in nature. dry weather is expected
outside the lep. the lep should weaken considerably later monday
morning, end by the early afternoon, and then be followed by
dry weather region-wide through daybreak tuesday as the
aforementioned ridge is accompanied by a lowering and
stabilizing subsidence inversion.

key message 2...
on tuesday, nw`erly flow aloft persists as the ridge at the
surface and aloft exits generally e`ward and allows a warm front
to sweep n`ward through our region. a fairly-dry low-level
atmospheric column should permit a dry warm front passage. net
low-level waa ahead of and behind the warm front should
contribute to late afternoon highs reaching the upper 50`s to
lower 60`s in nw pa and the 60`s to lower 70`s in northern oh.
during tuesday night, a shortwave trough axis embedded in
nw`erly flow aloft should approach our region and the accompanying,
weak surface cold front should begin to sweep se`ward through
roughly the northern-half of our cwa. scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms are expected as weak and mainly elevated cape is
released by the following: frontal forcing for ascent amidst
sufficient moisture and moist isentropic ascent ahead of the
shortwave trough axis. lows should reach the mid 40`s to mid
50`s around daybreak wednesday. on wednesday, the aforementioned
shortwave trough axis should sweep se`ward across our cwa, the
surface cold front should sweep se`ward through the rest of our
cwa by midday, and then a surface ridge should begin to build
into our region from the northern great lakes. additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for the same
aforementioned reasons, especially roughly along and south of
u.s. route 30. farther north, odds favor fair weather due, in
part to stabilizing subsidence that will accompany the surface
ridge. late afternoon highs should reach the 60`s to mid 70`s.
the coolest highs are expected within a few miles of lake erie
due to lake breeze development during the late morning through
early evening.

abnormal warmth, overall, should persist in our region
wednesday night through this upcoming weekend as we become
located within a net waa regime along the western flank of the
surface ridge and eventually the ridge farther aloft. for context,
normal lows are near 40f and normal highs are near 60f to 65f
for late april in our cwa. current odds favor fair weather
wednesday night through thursday night. during friday through
sunday, periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible due, in
part to the passage of shortwave trough axes embedded in sw`erly
to w`erly flow aloft.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
as a cold front moves east this evening, rain showers will
remain scattered and light in nature, resulting in very limited
impacts to terminals. as the cold front departs east, there will
be a transition into a northwest flow, resulting in the
potential for some lake enhanced showers to develop downstream
of lake erie. many of these showers should remain predominately
as rain, although a few flakes mixing in cannot be ruled out,
especially across the higher terrain in ne oh and nw pa.
terminals most likely to be impacted by these showers will be
kcle to kcak and east. ceilings are expected to primarily remain
vfr through the period, although isolated lowering in lake
clouds may reach mvfr heights at kyng and keri. by mid-monday
morning, snow/rain showers should dissipate, leaving all
terminals vfr for the remainder of the period.

west-northwest winds of 10-15 knots continue to gust this
evening with highest gusts of 20-30 knots across western
terminals and the immediate lakeshore. these winds should
steadily decrease over the next couple hours with overnight
winds from the north-northwest at 5-10 knots. these will persist
through much of the period before becoming light and variable
near 00z tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible tuesday night and wednesday in rain
showers.

&&

.marine...
winds on lake erie will peak late this afternoon and evening as
a trough crosses the lake. wnw winds of 15-25 knots will turn
nnw and gradually decrease to 5-15 knots tonight. will keep
small craft headlines going this evening, gradually expiring
after 00z as winds decrease. keeping the small craft advisory
from reno beach to willowick until 03z still looks reasonable
since it will take the longest for winds to diminish in the
western and central basins.

light winds are then expected on lake erie monday as high
pressure shifts across the lake before turning s to sw at 10-15
knots late monday night and tuesday ahead of another cold front.
winds will turn n behind this front late tuesday night,
becoming light and variable wednesday and thursday. daily lake
breeze development is likely wednesday and thursday afternoons
which will turn winds more n to ne in the nearshore waters until
a period of stronger s winds friday possibly offsets the lake
breeze.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
freeze watch from monday evening through tuesday morning for
ohz009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
paz001>003.
freeze watch from monday evening through tuesday morning for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez142-
147>149.
small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
lez143>146.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...04
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1240 am edt mon apr 20 2026

.key messages...

- freeze conditions expected tonight with lows from mid 20s to
around 30.

- low chances of rain return for tuesday night but only light
precipitation amounts are expected which will not have a
significant impact on flooding concerns.

- after a cool start to the week, temperatures trend warmer
starting tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a strong upper level vort
max dropping southeast across the western great lakes. low levels
have mixed out nicely in advance of this feature with dew points
bottoming out to around 20 degrees in spots. these low level dew
point trends should make instability a bit more of a struggle with
max sfc based capes expected around 100 j/kg for a few hours this
afternoon. despite limited instability, would expect a few higher
based showers to develop given strength of mid/upper level forcing
and a strong mid level cold pool (-18 to 20 deg c at 700 mb). some
enhancement to frontal convergence with flow off lake michigan could
help initiate these showers, and these low rain chances should be
progressive from west to east following the stronger vorticity
advection with the upper trough. given large dew point depressions,
any rainfall amounts will be light.

some low clouds may linger into this evening downwind of lake
michigan with some weak lake response possible, but otherwise
clearing skies are expected as a broad low level anticyclone
eventually shifts across the region overnight. the orientation
of the low level thermal trough from southeast canada into the
eastern great lakes and portions of the ohio valley still
suggests coldest mins in mid 20s across south central lower
michigan into far northwest ohio. confidence is still on the
high side that all areas should be below freezing for mins
tonight, so no changes planned to the freeze warning at this
time.

monday will be a quiet transition as southern great lakes/ohio
valley become positioned in upper level inflection zone between
eastern conus trough/western conus ridge. broad synoptic scale
subsidence in this pattern will provide mostly clear skies with
below normal temperatures continuing. some patchy frost is possible
again monday night across the far east, but given departure of low
level ridge axis, low level gradient should be strong enough during
the overnight hours into tuesday morning to limit this potential.

tuesday will feature a better mixing day as low level southwest flow
increases downstream of a weak, low amplitude northwest flow
short wave trough and the low level ridge axis shifts off the
mid atlantic coast. breezy/windy conditions are expected on
tuesday and deep mixing combined with stronger waa should lead
to above normal temps back into low-mid 70s for most locations.
a southward sagging frontal boundary tuesday night and some
pooling of moisture in pre-frontal zone should lead to some
light rain showers shifting north to south across the area
tuesday evening, but precip amounts should be less than one
quarter of an inch.

for the remainder of the work week, medium range guidance does
suggest more significant western conus troughing developing but
this will occur in the backdrop of a somewhat stable longwave
pattern with only a slow eastern progression of central conus
upper ridge. this evolution should keep primary
moisture/instability axis west of the local area on thursday
with likely cold frontal passage as system occludes well to the
northwest across northern plains/south central canada. rain
showers and perhaps a few storms may accompany this front. much
above normal temps thursday and friday will give way to more
seasonable temperatures by early next weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1237 am edt mon apr 20 2026

with expansive high pressure in place, the inherited tafs were
in great shape. light and variable wind attempts to become
westerly this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...freeze warning until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1208 am edt mon apr 20 2026

.key messages...

- a freeze warning remains in effect this morning for most of
southeast michigan as lows drop into the mid 20s.

- temperatures warm back toward normal tuesday, climbing well above
normal through the rest of the workweek.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through this taf period. high pressure
will establish greater influence early this morning and through the
rest of the day. the result will be dry conditions and light winds.
progression of the high pressure through the great lakes will lead to
winds backing towards the west this afternoon and eventually out of
the south late in the day while remaining light.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 326 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

discussion...

cooling aloft has resulted in steepening lapse rates, and with weak
elevated moisture advection, an uptick in diurnal surface-based
instability of 100-200 j/kg. cyclonic flow will persist overhead and
dynamically enhance uvvs as free convection emerges through the bulk
of the troposphere, until the boundary-layer quickly shrinks with
the loss of daytime heating. showers should predominantly remain
cellular for the rest of today featuring a variety of possible
precipitation types: rain, melting snowflakes, and/or graupel.
surface dewpoints and relatively dry air beneath the cloud-bearing
layer limit the overall intensity of precipitation and qpf, but
additional isolated lightning strikes are likely. gusty winds are
still the main concern for the rest of today given the depth/dryness
of the boundary-layer and enhanced evaporative cooling potential for
rain and meltwater. with non-convective gusts of 25-30 mph, precip-
loaded updrafts could easily produce gusts in excess of 40 mph.

abnormally chilly tonight in the wake of a cold front extending well
beyond its parent surface low, located near hudson bay. in addition
to renewed cold advection, the frontal passage provides a northerly
wind shift and decreasing speeds as high pressure builds in
aggressively from the upper midwest. high confidence in overnight
lows dropping into the 20s as 850 mb temperatures are likely to
plunge around minus 10c by sunrise monday. a freeze warning remains
in effect given the heightened sensitivity of early season
vegetation and minimal uncertainty in temperature trends.

geopotential heights increase monday morning as western conus
longwave ridging broadens eastward and a shorter wavelength ridge
axis extends from the upper midwest to james bay. subsequent thermal
moderation will be slow to gain traction, so temperatures will be
capped below normal again on monday, only rising into the 40s.
surface high pressure of 1030 mb crosses southern lower michigan
monday afternoon maintaining dry conditions. the ridge exits into
the eastern great lakes monday evening which backs gradient winds
southerly amidst ensuing return flow. a baroclinic zone develops
upstream and will be the focus of shower potential tuesday night,
after the corresponding front gets released by a northern stream
wave. models continue to advertise higher productivity further south
along the frontal slope where thetae convergence and instability is
stronger. outgoing forecast continues to highlight low chance
pops/thunder south of i-94.

longwave ridge amplification gets underway across central conus
midweek which leads to rising temperatures, and eventually
dewpoints, by the end of the workweek. temperatures should maximize
in the 70s with dewpoints in the 50s thursday and friday. mainly dry
conditions for thursday as mid-level dry air and 7 kft capping
inversion should limit convective chances. a cold front approaches
on friday with showers and potentially some storms.

marine...

gusty northwest wind accompanies a surge of colder air across the
great lakes today. gusts of 25 to 30 kt this afternoon and evening
will decrease toward 20 kt overnight, and scattered showers will
continue to dot the region. small craft advisories remain in effect
through this evening for western lake erie and lake st. clair, and
into late monday morning for the lake huron nearshore waters where
wave heights will be slower to subside. high pressure builds into
the great lakes on monday promoting a period of less active weather
with lighter wind. gusty south wind then develops monday night into
tuesday ahead of the next cold front tracking across the upper
midwest. the front settles across the region late tuesday, bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the south. weaker
wind follows on wednesday as the pressure gradient relaxes again.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for miz053-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kgk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.