Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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314
fxus61 kcle 151942
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
242 pm est sun feb 15 2026

.what has changed...
the potential for fog overnight has increased across eastern
portions of the forecast area. have added a mention of patchy dense
fog to the forecast. the potential for strong southwesterly wind
speeds and gusts on wednesday has also increased.

&&

.key messages...
1) areas of fog, including patchy dense fog, is expected to develop
overnight. visibility may occasionally fall to one mile or less
along and east of the i-71 corridor.

2) periods of rain showers expected through the forecast period.
areawide showers accompanied by gusty winds are expected on
wednesday. additional chances of rain/snow mix towards the end of
the week.

3) temperatures warm to above average values through the week,
turning cooler towards next weekend. extended period of above
average temperatures resulting in melting of remaining snow pack and
the possibility of localized ice jams on area rivers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
light winds under building high pressure coupled with saturated low
levels will lead to areas of fog, including patchy dense fog, to
develop this evening through monday morning. latest href guidance
shows probabilities of 1/2 mile or less visibility ranging between 40-
60% across western zones and up to 80-100% along and east of i-71. a
dense fog advisory may be needed for a portion of the forecast area
overnight tonight.

key message 2...
multiple periods of showers will continue through the forecast
period. scattered rain showers this afternoon will exit this evening
as the parent low pressure drifts eastward. the next chance for rain
comes monday night into tuesday as a weak shortwave aloft pushes
across the great lakes region. any slight chance to chance pops will
be confined to northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. qpf will
be negligible.

a more potent low pressure system will glide east across the upper
midwest on wednesday while lifting a warm front northeast across the
local area. the low will push east into the eastern great lakes on
thursday before dragging a cold front east across the local area
thursday night into friday. precipitation ahead of the cold
front will remain as all rain given the warm temperatures aloft
and at the surface behind the warm front. can`t rule out a
rumble of thunder and gusty showers as surface based cape values
rise to the 400-800 j/kg range and a strong llj ~40-45 knots
moves overhead wednesday morning through wednesday afternoon.
initial push of rain showers exits late wednesday night with a
dry window expected through thursday afternoon. chance to likely
pops return thursday night through the weekend. expect p-types
to be a mix of rain/snow as temperatures behind the cold front
on friday night will hover around freezing.

key message 3...
upper level ridge will build across the eastern conus early
this week. persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will lead
to 850mb temperatures rising to +5c to +8c across the region,
roughly the 90th to 95th percentile when compared to
climatology. a prolonged period of above average temperatures is
anticipated beneath this upper level ridge. daily highs in the
low to mid 50s monday and tuesday will top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s by wednesday behind a warm front. for reference,
average temperatures in mid to late february are generally in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

this extended period of above normal temperatures may lead to
localized impacts due to the melting of the existing snow pack and
ice jams. will continue to monitor the potential for ice jams over
the next few days.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
a mix of low stratus and high cirrus currently and exiting light
rain across the south as low pressure passes south of the
region. the complication in the aviation forecast comes tonight
with a low level inversion and trapped moisture, and deciphering
between fog, low stratus, or nothing in the lower levels at all.
based on forecast soundings, the best chance for fog will be
south and east of the mfd to cle line, not including those
terminals. have lifr fog in the forecast for cak and yng after
05z tonight lingering into the late morning hours monday. going
with ifr to perhaps lifr stratus at mfd and eri, and cle/fdy/tol
at mainly vfr ceilings with no low stratus cloud formation
expected. there is some lower confidence to this forecast at
this time, with the biggest impact of this lower confidence at
the vfr terminals tonight. may need to add the low stratus in if
the signal for cloud cover development in the trapped inversion
becomes a little more robust. for terminals that do go into low
ceilings or visibilities, it will likely take some time after
sunrise for the flight categories to improve.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a sliver of open water has developed just east of the islands
and pulled away from the shore from around vermilion to
cleveland. otherwise, the lake is primarily ice-covered.
variable winds less than 10kts become offshore monday/monday
night increasing to 10-15kts, then back to variable through
tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches and then becomes
stationary near the southern shore of lake erie. winds increase
out of the south to 15-25kts tuesday night, and then back to
southwesterly late wednesday into wednesday night 15-25kts with
another low pressure system moving through the region. low
pressure with a cold front is expected at the end of the week.



&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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012
fxus63 kiwx 152032
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
332 pm est sun feb 15 2026

.key messages...

- fog redevelopment tonight, mainly south of highway 30.

- very mild for this time of year for this upcoming week.

- record or near record highs wednesday - well into the 60s.

- antecedently dry conditions to continue; little runoff from
snow melt, very low chances for river flooding through friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 pm est sun feb 15 2026

atmospheric signals are mounting for close to an unprecedented
mild pattern for the middle of february for this upcoming week.
the gfs supports height anomalies reaching +160 meters. several
surges of energy will dive on the back side of an upper level
through wednesday. these impulses will tend to slow and amplify
the approaching lead trof, subsequently amplifying the downstream
ridge over the east conus. highs in the mid to upper 60s by
wednesday will resemble the normal highs for may 1st.

as for high temperatures, unseasonably warm weather will prevail
as forecast 850 mb temperatures rise to +10c by wednesday.
record highs appear to be in play as surface temperatures should
be able to reach the mid and upper 60s. the record for ft wayne
wednesday is 66f. cooler weather will eventually follow as
colder air is able to move southeast and reach the area.

the 12z gfs maintains the antecedently dry pattern with less
than 0.25" of rain for the next 10 days. left a small chance for
low-topped thunderstorms in a small window early wednesday.
strong gusty winds are possible in the mid to highs shear but
low cape environment. at this time, it appears chances for both
flooding and severe weather are remote this upcoming week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1228 pm est sun feb 15 2026

the trough that moved through the area last night into this morning
pushes eastward this afternoon, away from the area. this provides an
opening for surface high pressure to push in. warm advection arrives
right around daybreak and this, in addition to snow melt trapped
underneath a forming inversion will help to reform fog across the
area monday morning. cross-over temps are just barely conducive, but
probably the warm advection will help provide the additional
moisture needed. lav guidance indicates vis will be able to
drop between 6 and 8z with at least patchy dense fog possible a
couple hours later. lav guidance indicates winds pick up during
the morning hours, but am skeptical of that given fog
possibility. if a combination of the two hazards arrives with
stratus and fog occurring, perhaps that limits fog`s magnitude
with increased winds. another factor is there appears to be some
high clouds that could limit this chance for either outcome as
well. with these tafs have gone with a lean towards persistence,
but the above outcomes could happen instead so hopefully this
comes across as a low confidence forecast.

as the system pulls away this afternoon, look for west-
northwesterly winds to overtake southwest winds, but overnight,
can see a return to southwest as a warm front moves through.
the main jet looks to stay north of the area so will keep llws
out of the taf.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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755
fxus63 kdtx 152005
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
305 pm est sun feb 15 2026

.key messages...

- fog develops again tonight into monday morning with locally dense
fog possible.

- above normal temperatures resume this afternoon and continue
through mid week.

- next chance for precipitation comes tuesday night and wednesday.
all rain is expected with decreasing potential for wintry mix
across the north.

&&

.discussion...

stretch of mild and benign weekend weather continues through the
evening, with current temperature readings approaching 50 degrees
across much of the state. mid-level wave crossing the state at
issuance has little moisture to work with, capable of only pockets
of transient mid/high cloud that will exit this evening. nocturnal
fog potential then returns overnight as clearing skies, relaxed
gradient wind, and a strong persistent inversion set up highly
efficient radiative cooling conditions. upper level cloud then moves
in after midnight or so ahead of the next low to impact the great
lakes monday. timing of this high cloud however is likely too late
to prevent radiation fog from developing. similar to today, locally
dense fog will be possible.

the aforementioned low glances across northern lower michigan monday
afternoon, on the nose of a 120 knot jet streak aloft. the better
dynamics are along the trough axis itself and in the left exit
region of the jet, both focused over northern lower michigan. just a
narrow corridor of moisture develops at the cusp of a 40-45 knot low
level jet monday afternoon to support low pops across the saginaw
valley and thumb regions. temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s
again monday ensure all rain if precipitation does occur. a more
widespread effect of this system will be breezy southwest flow
(gusts to 30 mph) as the low level jet works through.

trend toward a warmer and more active pattern is expected for the
mid-week period. this all begins over the next 24 hours as two west
coast systems attempt to phase over california. messy interference
pattern emerges, establishing strong diffluence aloft within the mid
and upper level geopotential height fields. ~140 knot upper level
jet expands from the desert southwest into the ohio valley by mid-
week, with low pressure attempting to surge along with it before
getting anchored over the upper midwest by the diffluent flow field.
this ultimately leads to quick occlusion of the low as return flow
advects moisture into the elongated deformation axis that sets up
across the northern tier of conus. se michigan finds itself in the
warm sector portion of this system, on the southern edge of the
elongated precipitation shield. latest guidance continues to favor
the all rain scenario for most of se michigan, with any brief wintry
mix potential holding north of m-46 where temperatures flirt with 32
degrees tuesday evening.

heaviest qpf potential exists invof a secondary surface circulation
that slides across central lower mi mid-day wednesday, clipping the
saginaw valley and thumb. ensemble members reflect this with larger
variance in the upper quartile of 24-hour qpf at mbs (0.5" to 1"
rain), tapering to below a half inch around the ohio border. the
lower amounts to the south are influenced by the arrival of an
elevated mixed layer (eml) that quickly dries out the column. timing
of this feature along with warm front progress will have major
implications on the temperature forecast as well. strong subsidence
from the eml and northward progress of the warm front could mix out
an otherwise strong inversion to boost temperatures into the low 60s
(just shy of upper 60s records). if this inversion is unable to mix
out, looking at another day with temps in the upper 40s.

&&

.marine...

light wind persists through tonight within a weak pressure pattern
across the great lakes. a weak trough settles into the area on
monday, causing s to sw wind to increase to around 10 to 15 kt
before diminishing and veering to nw monday night. this system will
bring a slight chance of rain mainly to lake huron. high pressure on
tuesday maintains dry and benign conditions as a frontal boundary
sets up just south of the great lakes. this boundary will serve as a
focus for a stronger low pressure system that moves in from the
northern plains on wednesday, bringing rain, snow, wintry mix, and
gusty easterly winds. a gale watch may be needed for northern lake
huron where ensembles currently highlight the highest potential for
gusts to 35 kt from around daybreak wednesday to early afternoon. a
second low pressure system is likely to track into the great lakes
from the midwest on friday with another round of widespread precip
and gusty easterly wind.

&&

.hydrology...

low pressure brings widespread rain to the region tuesday night into
wednesday, with rainfall totals projected to range between a quarter
inch to locally one inch. the highest amounts are forecast across
the saginaw valley and thumb regions, closest to the track of the
surface low. rain will fall on top of a melting snowpack, with
latest snow water equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1".
the combination of rain and snowmelt may lead to rises on area
rivers and ponding.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 109 pm est sun feb 15 2026

aviation...

the main aviation forecast concern revolves around the fog potential
for late tonight into monday morning. outside of some passing mid-
level clouds, skies will remain mostly clear into tonight. winds
will remain light overnight as well. these conditions will help set
the stage for strong radiational cooling, helping prime much of the
area for another round of morning fog. however, the arrive and
thickness of mid-level clouds on monday morning will have
implications on how widespread and dense any fog gets. included
mentions of br for now.

a surface low tracks east across the upper great lakes on monday,
introducing south-southwest winds to the area by mid to late
morning. there may be a pocket of showers move through, mainly up
across the tri-cities and thumb regions, around/after 18z monday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm monday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......tf
hydrology....mv
aviation.....ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.