Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
181
fxus61 kcle 131149
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
749 am edt thu aug 13 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) patchy fog is possible this morning.

2) scattered showers expected tonight through friday generally
near or west of i-77.

3) periodic thunderstorms are expected saturday night through
sunday evening. there is a low risk for severe weather,
especially sunday afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
moist surface conditions due to yesterday`s rain, and light
surface winds with weak high pressure overhead will result favor
fog formation this morning. patchy fog is possible across
portions of the forecast area, especially for our southwest
counties (e.g. hancock to knox counties) where there could be
greater coverage of fog.

key message 2...
the stationary front that has been impacting the broader region
has sagged south towards the lower ohio valley. a series of
mid-level shortwaves are expected to traverse the broader
northwest flow, with additional rounds of convection expected.
the latest high resolution models have thunderstorms with heavy
rain displaced to our southwest, with mainly rain showers
affecting parts of northern ohio tonight into friday. this is
generally west of i-77 with our southwest counties (hancock to
knox counties) seeing the best shot at rain showers.

key message 3...
low pressure moves eastward across the great lakes region,
lifting a warm front across the area saturday night. the entire
forecast area will be within the warm sector on sunday, with
very humid conditions expected. a couple rounds of thunderstorms
are expected with this system.

the first round of thunderstorms is expected with the warm front
saturday night, generally moving west to east. this is most
likely to occur overnight, though a few models do linger this
activity into the morning ours, depending on the speed in which
the warm front lifts across the area. there is a low risk for
severe weather.

additional convective development is expected sunday afternoon
and evening. high instability along with modest mid-level shear
may produced an organized severe weather threat. as always,
there is some uncertainty with timing/location of greatest
severe weather threat but this time frame is worth keeping an
eye on.

the cold front sweeps through sunday night with high pressure
building in on monday and tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
fog will burn off over the next 1 to 2 hours, but lingering low
to mid-level clouds will keep mvfr cigs in place at most
terminals through early afternoon before scattering out to vfr
for the rest of the afternoon and evening. showers in southwest
ohio could get as far north as kfdy this evening and tonight,
but there will be a sharp cut off, and confidence is increasing
that this will avoid the other terminals. could be close for
kmfd, but left out of the taf. otherwise, we will need to
monitor the extent of fog formation again tonight, so started to
bring in mvfr to ifr visibilities to the typical terminals.

light and variable winds early this morning will become w to nw
at 5-10 knots by late morning through the evening before turning
light s tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
saturday afternoon into sunday.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through the start of
the weekend as pressure gradients will be weak. light and
variable winds today and tonight will become ene at 5-10 knots
friday and friday night as high pressure briefly strengthens
across the great lakes before turning se at 5-10 knots saturday
as a warm front approaches the lake. winds will turn sw and
increase to 15-20 knots by sunday behind the warm front as the
gradient tightens in response to low pressure moving east
through the central great lakes. this low will drag a cold front
across the lake sunday night, turning winds nnw at 10-15 knots
for late sunday night and monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
514
fxus63 kiwx 131035
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
635 am edt thu aug 13 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog are expected this morning and may be dense in
spots.

- there is a 30-50% chance of storms late this afternoon but
severe weather is not expected.

- more widespread, heavy rain is possible late tonight into
early friday morning, especially south of us-30 where a lot of
rain has already fallen. a flood watch remains in effect there
through friday morning.

- more storms are possible over the weekend but the potential
for heavy rain and flooding will be lower.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 140 am edt thu aug 13 2026

a welcome (even if brief) respite from rain this morning. main
concern in the immediate near term is potential for some fog
again this morning given light winds and ample near-surface
moisture. complicating factor this morning is large area of
stratus that developed earlier. this stratus is dissipating but
guidance struggled to capture this and subsequently the modeled
widespread, dense fog is very much in question. will continue to
monitor closely through the morning but not seeing enough
signals to warrant a dense fog advisory just yet.

unfortunately, chances for rain return quickly later today and
especially tonight as we remain in the "ring of fire." the first
feature of interest is an mcv associated with convection presently
over ne/sd. the feature will track into our cwa during the late
afternoon with our next chance of rain. however, we continue to see
a step downward in midlevel lapse rates, low level theta-e
advection, and subsequent instability (much like yesterday was a step
down from the day before). the llj is much weaker this morning
(evidenced by near total lack of convection in our region) and
surface obs/mesoanalysis suggest yesterday`s activity nudged the
front slightly further south. even seeing some n/ne flow at 850mb
into our northern cwa. all of this to say that the afternoon
activity is expected to remain weak as it enters our cwa. some
gusty winds can`t be entirely ruled out though, as well as some
brief heavy rain in an area that really can`t take anymore.

the far greater concern will be what happens late tonight/early fri.
another shortwave ejects into the central plains and once again
strengthens the downstream llj. another round of strong low level
theta-e advection is anticipated, though there is still some spread
regarding just how strong between the nam and other hi-res guidance
vs. lower-res global models. regardless of the details, the stage is
set for another round of very heavy rain roughly 04-12z fri morning.
the exact placement remains somewhat uncertain this far out but a
concensus blend would put the highest probabilities squarely over
the same area already hit hard in our far southern cwa and
ind`s n/ne cwa. our flood watch was already extended through fri
morning given this potential and high sensitivity to any rain
south of us-30. an argument could be made to remove the tier of
counties right along us-30 but confidence is too low to get
that surgical at this point.

there is some light at the end of this tunnel though. the
eastern canada upper low keeping our region on the northeast
fringe of this ridge finally releases eastward allowing the
ridge (and associated storm track) to (temporarily) lift
northward. storms remain in the forecast for sat but should be
much more progressive and focused more in our northern cwa vs.
south. the ridge then breaks down completely by late sunday as a
cold front crosses the area. here again, some storms possible
but weaker, more progressive and overall just a different setup
that is less conducive for heavy rain. cool and dry conditions
then expected mon through at least early wed.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 635 am edt thu aug 13 2026

area of stratus currently over the terminals is preventing fog
development but ceilings may still be ifr over the next 2-3
hours before slowly lifting through late morning. return to vfr
anticipated by afternoon but another round of storms is
possible this evening and overnight, especially at kfwa.
confidence remains low regarding the exact timing and coverage
though.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through friday morning for inz012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-116-203-216.
oh...flood watch through friday morning for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 131040
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
640 am edt thu aug 13 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry weather expected through saturday with seasonably warm,
but humid, conditions.

- showers and thunderstorms return late saturday into sunday.

&&

.aviation...

moist near surface conditions again contributing to some areas of
very low stratus and fog development early this morning. expectation
again for those areas witnessing lifr to ifr conditions to see
steady improvement within the 13z-15z window as daytime heating
increases influence. otherwise, generally drier and more stable
conditions will exist today and tonight, as the focus for convective
development holds to the south and west. steady increase in high
based cloud expected with time today, with some degree of scattered
to broken diurnal vfr cu development. winds will remain light with
some variability as weak high pressure drifts through.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated at dtw during the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less this morning, then low this
afternoon through tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am edt thu aug 13 2026

discussion...

minimal adjustments to note regarding the synoptic pattern today as
broad ridging persists with quick northwest flow aloft. geopotential
heights rise slightly over southeast michigan as the longwave axis
becomes reestablished further west, closer to the rockies.
positioned downstream of the apex, mid-level geopotential heights
over lower michigan appear largely unchanged, if not slightly
higher, while lower column subsidence offer confidence in mainly dry
conditions. as has been the case for most of the week, near surface
moisture remains pervasive, marked by dewpoints in 60s. surface-
based instability faces a challenging unlock process warmer mid-
levels translate into poor lapse rates of less than 6 c/km. latest
nwp solutions indicate meager mucape on the order of 250-500 j/kg.
weak cva activated by perturbed flow aloft is not expected to
suffice in triggering any meaningful convection, although a few
isolated narrow-diameter showers cannot completely be ruled out,
especially with any favorable lake breeze interactions. as for the
fate of upstream mcs activity moving from the plains into portions
of the midwest, low-end potential exists for a glancing pass at the
southern portion of the cwa this evening or early tonight. should
this materialize, it would mainly affect locations south of i-94 as
evidenced by the slower and more eastward trajectory of the 13.05z
hrrr, compared to the 00z run.

low convective potential again friday as flow weakens aloft and the
ridge gets flattened by a digging canadian shortwave. similar
temperature trend as 850 mb temperatures linger in the mid teens,
resulting in highs around the mid 80s. surface high pressure over
ontario will have a weak hold on gradient flow locally, becoming
northerly composed. precipitation chances will be dictated by
upstream convective evolution, mainly along the same ohio border
vicinity zone. a moist low-level jet approaches saturday night along
a warm front leading to a sharp theta-e surge as low pressure lifts
in from the southwest. potential exists for organized convection
with the initial front, and again with a trailing cold front through
sunday. winds shift from south to northwest behind the front with a
brief reprieve in temperatures and dewpoints for monday and tuesday.

marine...

a stalled front near the southern michigan border will continue to
be a focus for showers and thunderstorms as systems ripple along the
boundary. the next chance coming later tonight for lake st clair and
lake erie being closer to the stalled front. could see some storms
go up around the thumb later this evening too as lake breeze
boundaries activate. outside of any convection, high pressure to the
north of the front will provide generally light northwesterly winds
through tonight at 10 knots or less. with the lighter winds, there
are some weak signals for patchy dense fog over lake huron at times,
through confidence remains low. on friday, the high pushes eastward
across the central and eastern great lakes which will favor an
uptick in northeast winds. winds then turn southerly late saturday
and increase to around 20 knots ahead of a cold front saturday night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kgk
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.