Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
913
fxus61 kcle 081826
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
126 pm est sun feb 8 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast overnight lows continue to trend down as clearing in
sky coverage continues to increase. this will result in another
night of frigid cold temperatures, especially across nwpa. as a
result, a cold weather advisory has been issued for nwpa tonight
through mid-monday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1)one more night of frigid sub-zero temperatures expected
tonight before more seasonable temperatures return monday
afternoon. another night of this cold poses a continued risk for
vulnerable populations and area infrastructure.

2)lake effect snow is possible across portions of the snowbelt
tuesday afternoon into wednesday night.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
high pressure centered over the area has allowed for mostly
sunny skies this afternoon. this system will continue to
keep cloud coverage to a minimum tonight, which is expected to
only enhance cold temperatures across the area. overnight
temperatures continue to trend downwards as increased
radiational cooling will result in sub-zero temperatures for
much of the area with near 0 degrees across far western
counties. the coldest temperatures are expected in nwpa where
overnight lows will drop as low as -15f. given weak winds
across the area, wind chills should remain near the actual
temperature values. due to the current forecasted low
temperatures, a cold weather advisory has been issued for nwpa
for tonight into monday morning. will have to monitor sky
coverage and falling temperatures to determine if this will need
to be extended further west, but at this point there is little
confidence in that happening.

the good news is this should be the last frigid night for a bit
as the temperatures throughout the week will become more average
for this time of year with highs in the 20s and overnight lows
in the teens. tuesday is expected to be the warmest day as a
warm front lifts north of the area with daytime highs reaching
into the upper 30s, possible touching 40 degrees in some
locations!


.key message 2...
much of this week is expected to remain dry as high pressure
systems influence the area. the exception of this may be across
portions of the snowbelt from tuesday night into thursday. early
on tuesday, a low pressure system will move a warm front north
followed by a cold front tuesday night. this system should
remain dry overall with the frontal boundaries primarily
defined by temperature and wind shifts. however, behind the
departing cold front a surface trough will persist over the area
for much of wednesday into early thursday. this will result in
a northwest flow and potentially another round of lake effect
across portions of the snowbelt. given the fact that lake erie
is frozen, not expecting this to be a very notable event, but a
couple inches may be possible. will continue to monitor the
strength of the aforementioned surface trough and progression of
the system in upcoming forecasts to get a better handle on
likelihood, timing, and magnitude of any lake effect that does
occur.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr ceilings are expected across most of the area through the
taf period with few to scattered clouds at 2500 to 3500 feet
anticipated across portions of ne oh and nw pa through this
afternoon. winds will generally be variable and under 10 knots
through early monday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers across ne oh and nw
pa tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered. light northeast winds are
expected through this evening before becoming southeast on
monday. winds will shift to the southwest and increase to 10 to
20 knots on tuesday and gradually shift to the west/northwest
tuesday night into wednesday. northwest flow will continue into
thursday, although wind speeds should diminish below 10 knots
by thursday afternoon.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...cold weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
monday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
746
fxus63 kiwx 081752
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1252 pm est sun feb 8 2026

.key messages...

- after one more cold night tonight, temperatures return to
normal for the rest of the week with highs generally in the
30s.

- there are no significant chances for precipitation until next
weekend, allowing for a slow and unimpactful snowmelt.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 205 am est sun feb 8 2026

confluent mid/upper level flow amid a relatively tight baroclinic
zone yielding some decent 850-600mb fgen this morning. parent
shortwave is relatively weak and the marginal instability is highly
elevated (above 600mb) with a lot of dry air in the 900-700mb layer.
this is resulting in a very narrow band of light snow with dry
conditions holding to the ne and sw. under this band, a quick inch
is likely with local amount perhaps up to 2 not out of the question.
main impacts will be along a line roughly south bend to portland
with dry conditions likely holding in our far ne and sw counties.
snow will exit by 16z with some pockets of sun possible by the
afternoon. some late day waa may push highs into the mid/upper 20s
west while eastern zones hold around 20f. light winds and mostly
clear skies will lead to one more night in the single digits for
our eastern zones before waa really cranks up on monday.

as has been discussed, significant pattern change for this week will
result in warmer (around normal) temps as western conus ridge
finally folds east. tue looks like our warmest day with highs
pushing 40f ahead of a weak/dry cold front that will drop us into
the low 30s for the rest of the week. will have to keep an eye on
fog/stratus potential given warm air over deep/cold snowpack but
surface dewpoints look to stay generally below 32f which will slow
the melt and limit fog potential. unsurprisingly, the latest nbm has
reduced pop`s below 10 percent for late tue/wed. the next chance of
precip isn`t until late thu into fri and even here chances currently
look pretty low, relying on a subtle shortwave intersecting a very
dry/stable airmass. better chances may arrive over the weekend as
some guidance members lift a trough out of the southwest conus into
our area but there`s still a lot of spread on this. overall, it
looks like a nice slow thaw this week with minimal flooding
concerns.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1249 pm est sun feb 8 2026

predominantly vfr conditions expected at the terminals, with
potential for dips to mvfr at ksbn this afternoon and at kfwa
overnight into monday morning. cloud cover (bkn040-ish) has
shifted eastward, allowing for a temporary clearing at ksbn.
models suggest this cloud deck will shift back westward through
the day, possibly dropping to high-end mvfr (2500-3000 ft) as it
moves into ksbn briefly. otherwise, br possible tonight as skies
clear out over kfwa-likely after 6z. light ese winds persist
through the period.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
207
fxus63 kdtx 081833
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
133 pm est sun feb 8 2026

.key messages...

- wind chills of 5 to 15 degrees below zero is forecasted
across southeast michigan monday morning.

- a low chance for a brief wintry mix monday evening north of the i
69 corridor.

- temperatures are forecasted to reach near 40 on tuesday with
readings, right at early february averages wednesday through friday.

&&

.discussion...

southeasterly onshore flow has resulted in stratocumulus over huron
county today. did increase sky cover for the afternoon as surface
wind directions slowly veer to the southeast. upper level confluence
leading into 1000-500mb geopotential height rises will support
surface high pressure over southeast michigan tonight and through
the daylight hours monday. favorable radiative cooling conditions
will lead to another cold night with temperatures expected to fall
below zero for many areas. wind chills monday morning are expected
to range 5 to 15 degrees below zero. daytime temperatures are
projected to moderate into the middle 20s.

an upper level jet streak embedded within a shorter wavelength ridge
structure will push into the northern great plains throughout the
day on monday. exit region of the jet streak is shown to phase with
deeper potential vorticity anomaly in canada to drive substantial
warm advection wave across southeast michigan late monday night and
tuesday. best of the warm advection ascent and precipitation appears
to be north of the forecast area but enough guidance suggests a
shorter duration impacting areas north of i 69 00-06z tuesday.
current gridded forecast resides in the low to mid chance range for
snow or sleet. current forecast soundings suggest the freezing
heights at approximately 4.0 kft agl with minimum temperatures near
the surface at a cold -7c. preference is for colder precipitation
types for anything that reaches the ground.

a flatter wave is expected to keep temperatures in check for the
middle to end of the week. tuesday will likely be the mildest day
with temperatures in the upper 30s with temperatures wed through
friday in the 29-32 degree range. those readings are right at
averages for the early to middle february period.

&&

.marine...

flow has started organizing out of the southeast as the high
pressure center has moved into ontario. quiet marine weather
persists into monday, with strengthening southerly flow to 15 to 20
knots sustained. low pressure then tracks into the great lakes
tuesday, drawing a strong cold front through the area with a quick
shift to northwest flow in its wake. local probabilistic guidance
supports a chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 knots late tuesday
into wednesday as post-frontal cold advection ensues. another bout
of high pressure then returns for the late week period, establishing
another period of quiet marine weather.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 101 pm est sun feb 8 2026

aviation...

high pressure over the eastern great lakes will continue to provide
vfr conditions through the forecast. calm winds will emerge out of
the east-southeast this afternoon and largely remain there through
early monday. the high is keeping most of the denser high clouds to
the west so we`ll carry a sct layer around 15kft to account for the
waves of passing high clouds through the period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......mv
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.