Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 pm est fri feb 6 2026

.what has changed...
winter weather advisory has been expanded to include trumbull and
mahoning, oh due to impacts from snow showers and squalls this
evening with the arctic front. snow showers are possible on sunday
with a shortwave moving through the region.

&&

.key messages...
1) an arctic cold front will pass through the region this evening
bringing the potential for snow squalls, gusty winds, and blowing
snow leading to hazardous travel conditions this evening.

2) dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected
tonight as cold weather advisories and extreme cold warnings are in
effect. additional cold weather advisories may be needed
saturday night into sunday morning.

3) snow showers possible on sunday with generally dry weather
expected after through tuesday night. another low pressure system
will bring precipitation to the region mid-week.

4) temperatures begin to moderate early next week with above-
freezing temperatures expected through mid-week.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
a shortwave trough, supported by a strong upper level jet, will drop
down into the great lakes region dragging an arctic cold front along
with it. conditions have improved with a lull in-between the snow
showers this morning and with the front passing through this
evening, though will quickly deteriorate with the front. snow
squalls will likely develop along the front as there will be strong
convergence across the area. the snow squalls will drop visibility
rapidly with rapid snow accumulations of 0.5-1.5" where the band is
located. the primary area for snow squall potential is from sandusky
eastward, with less potential towards toledo though can`t rule out
brief drop in visibility and a few tenths of snow accumulation. use
caution if traveling tonight as conditions can deteriorate
quickly. snow squall potential will drop off late tonight around
10pm as the front exits to the southeast of the area.

in addition to the snow with the front, flow will shift to be out of
the northwest behind with a chance for lake enhanced snow showers
across northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania through
saturday. given that lake erie is nearly completely frozen, lake
huron still has the majority of its open waters clear, which will
provide enough moisture to light snow showers. not expecting
substantial totals given the poor environment, but another inch
to two inches are possible, especially across the higher
elevations of northeastern ohio.

winds will be strong this evening along and behind the front with
much colder air being advected in behind. low-level lapse rates will
increase as 850 temperatures approach -20c and winds at 925mb
increase to around 45 knots with the strong pressure gradient. gusts
of 40-45mph are likely starting around 7pm tonight through just
after midnight. with the strong winds, blowing snow will become a
hazard as well with the quick accumulation from early this morning
and with the front. blowing snow can drop visibility and cover
roads quickly, particularly in open areas, such as the western
portion of the cwa. winds will subside through the day saturday
as high pressure begins to move overhead.


.key message 2...
temperatures behind the arctic front will drop rapidly as 850
temperatures of less than -20c move into the region. cold weather
headlines to include an extreme cold warning for northwestern
pennsylvania and a cold weather advisory for the remaining portion
of the cwa have been issued for tomorrow morning. temperatures will
drop down into the single digits out west and below zero from
roughly the i-71 corridor eastward. there is potential for some
interior locations to drop down below -10f as well in far
northeastern ohio and northeastern pennsylvania. those low
temperatures accompanying by the strong winds, will drop wind
chills down to -10 to -25f in ohio and approaching -30f in
pennsylvania.

for saturday, highs will reach into the mid teens out west and only
into the low single digits out east, generally most will stay around
10f. there will be some clearing out late saturday night into sunday
morning that will allow temperatures to drop back down below zero
for eastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. as a result, wind
chill values will be between -10 and -15f for those locations.
thankfully, by sunday morning, winds will have subsided enough to
lessen the impact of the wind chills, but will fairly cold.
given this, can`t rule out additional cold weather headlines for
the eastern half of the cwa for sunday morning if conditions
stay on track.


.key message 3...
quiet weather will the theme for much of the beginning of the week,
with a couple of exceptions. as high pressure drifts eastward on
sunday, a shortwave will dive down into the region bringing the
potential for light snow showers across the region. at this point,
not expecting much accumulation given that the energy is fairly
weak the past model run with the exception of the nam. in
addition, there will be some low-level dry air underneath that
any precipitation will have to make its way through. by monday,
upper level ridging starts to develop out west and builds
eastward to bringing a break in winter weather and quieter
conditions. midweek, there are some disagreements in the models
on the location and strength of a trough developing over
eastern canada with a surface low moving north of the region.
some precipitation is likely across the region on wednesday, and
with temperatures touching above freezing, perception will
start off as rain early wednesday before transition to snow late
that night as colder air moves in behind the low.


.key message 4...
temperatures will begin to moderate across the region early
next week as a upper level ridge develops to the west and builds
eastward through wednesday. generally, southwesterly flow will
allow for warm air advection across the region and we`ll see
high temperatures climb above freezing on monday. highs on
tuesday will touch upper 30s and may even see 40s here and there
before dropping down into the mid 30s again with the
approaching low pressure system.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
mixed-bag of vfr, mvfr, and ifr across the taf sites this
evening, with non-vfr conditions associated with both lower
ceilings and vsbys. main concern will over the next several
hours, generally along and east of the i-71 corridor, as snow
squalls may briefly reduce vsbys to 1/2sm or less along an
arctic front, which is currently moving southeast across lake
erie and northwest ohio as of 7 pm est. these squalls may also
produce brief wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots.

behind the arctic front, non-vfr vsbys will remain possible in
scattered snow showers and/or blowing snow as north to
northwest wind gusts remain elevated at 25 to 30 knots. mainly
vfr should return late tonight into early saturday morning as
drier air enters the region, though will need to keep an eye
across far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania where
downstream lake huron moisture may lead to lake effect snow
and/or clouds.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers on sunday, generally
along and west of the i-71 corridor. non-vfr possible in
rain/snow showers tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie is ice-covered. a strong arctic cold front this
evening will bring northwest gales 35 knots to the central and
western basin tonight into early saturday morning. gusts up to
40 knots are very possible overnight. some shift of the ice on
lake erie may be possible due to the stronger winds. northwest
winds will continue on saturday 10 to 20 knots and then become
light and variable saturday night into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 1 am to noon est saturday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
ohz006-008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for ohz009>014-
019>023-029>033-038-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for paz001>003.
extreme cold warning from 1 am to noon est saturday for
paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 7 am est saturday for lez142>148-162>168.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...kahn
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
706 pm est fri feb 6 2026

.key messages...

- gusty winds of 30-35 mph through early saturday may result in lowered
visibilities from blowing snow.

- lake effect develops this evening and overnight with 1-3" expected
east of us-31, especially for berrien and la porte counties.

- a brief period of bitter cold tonight through saturday. a cold weather
advisory will be in effect from 1-9 am est saturday east of
i-69 for wind chills as low as -15 below zero. highs on
saturday will be in the teens to low 20s.

- a warm up is ahead with highs above freezing in the upper 30s
to low 40s by midweek.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 152 pm est fri feb 6 2026

temperatures have surpassed the freezing mark for the first time
since january 22nd! temperatures are currently in the mid 30s for
much of the area this afternoon, although changes are ahead as
arctic air intrudes over the next 24-36 hours. an arctic front is
currently draped from the straights of mackinac down through
central wisconsin and southern minnesota. this front is poised
to move southeast through our area later this evening. ahead of
that frontal passage, there is a very low confidence but
potential for snow squall-esque activity this afternoon.
convective elements (moisture, instability, etc) are rather
limited and the snow squall parameter doesn`t even show up for
our area on the spc mesoanalysis page, but did want to highlight
this since the hrrr and rap models do show squalls/bursts of
snow developing late this afternoon and evening. should any
heavier bursts of snow develop, lowered visibilities and falling
snow may impact the evening commute. confidence is very low on
exact locations, intensity, and impact`s, if at all.

what we do have high confidence in is lake effect developing this
evening downwind of lake michigan and increasingly gusty winds this
afternoon/evening. the clipper system that brought snow to the area
friday morning is associated with a deepening surface and attendant
upper level low over the great lakes. on the backside of this, a
tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds to develop.
even away from areas with lake effect, gusty winds of up to 30-35
mph through early saturday may result in lowered visibilities from
blowing snow. with northerly low-level winds and strong caa behind
the arctic frontal passage, temperatures plummet and lake effect
snow develops for northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan
this evening after 00z lasting into saturday. with a northerly fetch
over the open unfrozen waters of lake michigan (and possible lake
superior connection), the best chances for lake effect will likely
be west of us-31. inversion heights will be decent around 5000 ft
and there is good moisture and lift within the dgz. some dry air may
limit totals though and there are limited theta-e lapse rates as
tonight progresses. nevertheless, hi-res model guidance is
continuing to depict lake effect downwind of lake michigan with a
multi band setup for the primary lake effect snowbelts in berrien,mi
and la porte, in counties. some models have the lake effect
extending inland down to our border with ind (white and cass
counties), so it is possible those locations also get in on some
lake effect snow showers. highest amounts by saturday should be
1-3" closest to lake michigan. have continued to use the wpc
qpf guidance, which suggests slrs up to 20:1.

an upper level ridge builds across the central conus over the
weekend, which will allow for lake effect to taper off saturday as
subsidence works in. a brief cold snap is expected tonight through
saturday night with strong caa. saturday`s highs will only be in the
teens to low 20s. did want to note here that there will likely be a
sharp gradient in low temperatures across our forecast area both
tonight and saturday night due to lake effect cloud cover. along
lake michigan and downwind into nw indiana, clouds likely persist
both nights so temperatures likely drop only into the low to mid
teens. however, away from the lake, there will be much more
radiational cooling in locations with clear skies so temperatures
likely drop significantly. in northeast indiana and northwest ohio,
lows will likely be in the single digits to near zero both nights.
href shows 30% probabilities along and east of i-69 for sub-zero
lows tonight. winds may remain elevated enough (5-10 mph) to prevent
sub-zero lows from occuring. even if air temperatures do not
reach zero or below, wind chills will be as cold as -10 to -15
below zero tonight in areas away from lake effect clouds. even
though there is only medium confidence in low temperatures due
to the sharp gradient, confidence is high enough in bitterly
cold wind chills to warrant issuing a cold weather advisory for
part of the area. a cold weather advisory will be in effect from
1 am est to 9 am est saturday for nw ohio and hillsdale county,
mi. this (and locations further east) are where wind chills are
mostly likely to reach advisory level criteria.

another clipper system may clip portions of the area early sunday
morning. a wave of snow will pass through lower michigan and our far
northeast may get a brief 6-ish hour window for snow showers prior
to daybreak sunday. into next week, a warm up and mid february thaw
is on the way! highs will likely be above freezing area-wide for
several days in the early to middle part of next week. previous
forecasts had widespread 40s, however, recent ensemble guidance has
slowed this trend. the persistent snowpack of 6-12" across the area
(likely higher in some places with saturday`s lake effect) will
moderate temperatures. in addition, a warm front will surge into the
area tuesday but there is uncertainty on how far north it will get.
best chances for highs above 40 will be along and south of us 24;
should the warm front make it further north, a run at 50 degrees
could be possible in north-central indiana! we likely won`t make a
multi-day run of widespread highs in the 40s. there will be
increasing chances for precipitation by midweek; with above freezing
temperatures during the day and lows in the 20s, precipitation type
will be dependent on time of day in which it falls. we could see
rain during the day and then a rain/snow mix at night.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 647 pm est fri feb 6 2026

a cold front was moving south across southern wi early this
evening. the front extended across southern lake michigan into
far southern lower michigan. scattered snow showers with mainly
mvfr conditions accompanied the front. although the upstream
airmass was quite dry with dew points around zero, there should
be enough preconditioning across the lake to allow snow showers
to continue to develop and move inland over areas southeast of
lake michigan including south bend. for this reason, kept a
mention of vcsh at the sbn terminal. the national ice center
indicated that ice was building across far southern lake
michigan which will help limit the moisture flux across the
nearshore areas and into parts of the open waters.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...cold weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est saturday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est saturday for
miz081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
713 pm est fri feb 6 2026

.key messages...

- a cold weather advisory is in effect for all of southeastern
michigan tonight through saturday morning as wind chills fall to
15 to 20 degrees below zero.

- above normal temperatures are possible tuesday and wednesday of
next week.

- next chance of light snow occurs saturday night through sunday
afternoon.

&&

.aviation...

the arctic cold front has exited south of the area to start the
evening. it leaves behind nw wind gusting in the 30-40 kt range with
rapidly falling temperatures, but just a stray snow shower. the
inbound air mass is much colder and also impressively dry which
plays into favorable cloud trends for the rest of tonight. model
soundings also indicate cloud layer wind nudging slightly more
toward the north which is a dry/downslope flow having minimal lake
effect influence from northern lower mi into the terminal corridor.
a well-mixed boundary layer also ensures a continued gust component
during the night with the exception of a few hours of lower wind
speed around sunrise. wind diminishes as arctic high pressure builds
overhead during saturday afternoon with just a few shallow cumulus
and thin cirrus to finish the day.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening. low late
tonight and saturday.

* moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 pm est fri feb 6 2026

discussion...

arctic front has started dropping south through the area and should
exit to the se this evening prior to 00z. dewpoints still in the mid
20s ahead of the front offer up low level moisture for possible snow
showers or squalls this afternoon/evening. models advertise surface
convergence strengthening between mbs and dtw so though there is
nothing notable showing up on radar early on, intensity could
increase into the early evening. post frontal winds are on track so
far with upstream obs showing gusts of 30-35 knots over land and up
around 40 knots near the lakeshore with the onshore flow. these
strong gusts may lead to blowing and drifting of any snow that falls
along the front, or snow that fell earlier this morning.

these strong winds will also lead to aggressive cold air advection
with 850mb temps falling from -7c this morning down to -20c early
tonight. skies will mostly clear with the favorable northerly flow
keeping most of the lake superior to lake mi moisture plume to our
west. this will lead to rapid cooling with lows dropping to around
0f with negative values likely in the thumb. a cold weather advisory
remains in effect for the whole cwa tonight into saturday morning
for wind chills dropping into the -10 to -20f range.

temps remain cool on saturday with continued northerly flow and high
canadian high pressure passing over the region. only slight
moderation to the thermal profile with 850mb temps still in the
negative upper teens c so high temperatures likely remain in the
teens saturday. upper trough then begins to inch eastward through
the latter half of the weekend and into next week leading to a slow
warming trend into the middle of the week. high will rise to near 30
on monday before reaching the mid 30s tuesday and wednesday. next
change of precipitation will arrive saturday night into sunday as a
shortwave rounding the ridge shears over the region with an elevated
front looking to activate with isentropic ascent along the warm
advection arm. most of the lift and moisture will be elevated but
most models and probabilistic guidance supports a chance of snow
showers during this time. there is currently a large spread in
location of the best forcing from northern ohio up through about the
i69 corridor so look for refinements in placement as we get more
into the range of the hires models.

marine...

northwest flow encompasses the central great lakes region, with the
arctic front now located across lake erie. strong cold advection
post-front has led to a quick pop in wind gusts to 45 knots in some
spots which will be relatively short-lived as subsidence gradually
lowers mixing depths this evening. the dry arctic airmass confines
main snow shower activity to the ice-free waters of lake huron, with
any of these snow showers potentially becoming snow squalls at
times. the strongest wind pop is just now reaching saginaw bay, and
will settle south through the evening before gusts settle to 35-40
knots tonight. gale warnings and heavy freezing spray warnings
remain in effect, with the latest update adjusting the end time of
the warnings to account for a slower ramp down in gusts. should see
winds drop below headline thresholds around daybreak saturday
morning as high pressure builds into the area. quieter marine
conditions then prevail for the weekend into early next week with a
chance for snow on sunday as a clipper glances across lower
michigan.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...cold weather advisory until noon est saturday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.

cold weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon est saturday
for miz075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lhz361.

gale warning until 7 am est saturday for lhz362-363-421-441>443-
462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning until 4 am est saturday for lhz362-363-
462.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.