Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
214 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

.what has changed...
a chance for some showers has been introduced to the forecast
for wednesday evening/night with a warm frontal passage.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and pleasant weather continues through wednesday.

2) some showers possible wednesday night, followed by greater
potential for widespread rain late thursday into friday.

3) cooler weather this weekend into early next week. this
period will be mainly dry with a couple of minor rain chances.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
fantastic early fall weather continues midweek as we get into
weak return flow behind departing high pressure. any fog
development tonight should be rather limited as a bit more of a
gradient will likely allow most locations to hang onto a light
breeze, though some valleys may still decouple and see patchy
fog. wednesday will feature an increase in clouds but should
remain dry until the evening hours. lows will generally dip into
the 50s tonight, with the light south-southwest breeze keeping
us a little milder than last night. the modest return flow will
support slightly warmer highs in the mid-upper 70s on wednesday.

key message 2...
a closed low (partially comprised of the remnants of east
pacific hurricane polo) will eject out of the southwest and into
the plains wednesday into thursday, before shearing out/
weakening as it lifts towards the ohio valley on friday. at the
same time, ridging over the eastern u.s. will flatten as a
shortwave moves through the northern great lakes and into new
england, pushing a cold front southeast across the local area
thursday night into friday.

a loosely defined warm front is expect to lift across the area
late wednesday into wednesday night. increasing mid-level
moisture and some isentropic lift along/ahead of the warm front
may support some rain showers late wednesday through early
thursday, particularly across northern portions of the area.
more models are indicating this potential than prior cycles, so
have added some 20-40% type rain chances to the forecast. rain
amounts late wednesday into early thursday will generally be
near or under 0.10", with locally up to 0.10-0.25" possible.

much of the day thursday will be dry in the open warm sector,
with rain lingering early towards northwest pa closer to the
warm front and approaching from the northwest late in the day
ahead of the cold front. the greatest window for rain will be
from northwest to southeast thursday night into friday. there is
some disagreement over how progressive the front will be, which
will influence how rainy we are through the day friday and
overall qpf amounts. the current forecast leans a soggier
direction for friday, especially through the early afternoon,
with some potential for northern portions of our area to dry out
through the afternoon. much of the area is expected to see
0.40-0.80" of rain thursday night through friday, with the
greatest amounts expected across northwest ohio. somewhat
unintuitively, a slower front could lead to less overall qpf
per ensemble members, as the overall system will be weakening
with time. regardless, ensembles suggest that a drier system
producing as little as 0.20-0.50" overall is possible, with a
more robust solution potentially dropping 1.00-1.50" in the
toledo area. overall, this rain will be beneficial and should
not pose a risk for impactful flooding falling on dry grounds.

highs will push towards 80 on thursday, our last day with such
values for a while. highs on friday are forecast to range from
the mid 60s to near 70, though that may be slightly misleading
as highs will be early in the day ahead of the front, with
temperatures holding steady or falling behind the front.

key message 3...
high pressure builds into the lower great lakes friday night
into saturday behind the departing front, bringing a period of
drier and somewhat cooler weather. another potent shortwave is
expected to dive through the great lakes and into new england
sunday and monday, carving out a deeper trough over the
northeast. this will likely bring a re-enforcing/stronger cold
front late sunday or monday that may be accompanied by a chance
of showers, followed by an even cooler airmass the first half
of next week. the overall airmass and high pressure strength
may support a frost potential monday night/early tuesday,
assuming favorable high placement for radiational cooling.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr is expected through the taf period with scattered mid-level
cumulus likely at inland eastern terminals. winds will be light
and variable at most terminals through this evening, although a
lake breeze will produce north/northwest winds to 5 to 10 knots
at keri and kcle this afternoon into early this evening. winds
will become southerly at 10 knots or less at all terminals
tonight with flow becoming a bit more southwesterly and
increasing slightly during the day wednesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers thursday night through
the weekend.

&&

.marine...
southwesterly winds are expected to dominate tonight through
thursday ahead of a cold front that will cross the lake thursday
night. these southwest winds will increase to the 10-15kt range
at times, including tonight/early wednesday and wednesday night
through thursday, building 1 to 3 footers in the open waters.
winds shift northerly on friday behind the front and remain
north-northeast through saturday. the current forecast has
15-20kt winds and 2-4/3-5 foot type waves friday through early
saturday, and as the prior discussion mentioned it`s not
uncommon for forecast winds to trend upwards behind good cold
fronts in the early fall. given that, there is elevated
potential for small craft advisories friday into early saturday.
a brief period of calmer conditions is likely late saturday
into sunday, with another push of stronger north-northwest winds
behind a cold front early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...15
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 291739
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
139 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

.key messages...

- while it is possible spotty showers creep into areas north of
us-6 on wednesday, a majority of the area remains dry.

- rain is expected late thursday into early friday. around an
inch is anticipated for most locations. no severe weather or
significant flooding is expected.

- a warming trend takes mid to upper 70 degree high temps today
into the 80s for areas south of us-30 by thursday.

- trends are towards a dry and cooler weekend which looks to
continue into next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 125 am edt tue sep 29 2026

surface high pressure is shifting east underneath mid level ridging
and this keeps the area dry once again. one thing that does happen,
though, is that warm advection commences bringing a return to upper
cloudiness for this evening and tonight. this warm advection also
helps southern areas get into the upper 70s to around 80 degree
highs for wednesday. this is especially the case because the
vorticity is more focused to our north and west as opposed to
overhead. the best of the instability (still less than 100
j/kg of mucape) finally arrives around 00z in our northwest, but
surface dew points are still below 60f and the best forcing has
moved more northeastward instead of eastward into southwest lower
mi. all of this to say that it is possible that rain gets into the
area wednesday afternoon/evening, but severe weather is expected to
be limited and thunderstorm chances are low, if not non-existent.
this is why we have good chances to see those 80 degree highs on
wednesday is that, despite cloud cover, we have limited rain chances
down south there. by the time we get to thursday, the stalled front
to our west slides eastward slowly as a trough moves east-
southeastward across southern canada. later thursday and thursday
night is our best thunderstorm chance of this rainy period as the
nam brings through areas of instability up to 1000 j/kg of mucape.

rain may linger into friday morning, otherwise, the trend will be to
dry out friday afternoon as a surface high pressure system moves in.
this dry period also looks to last a while as the later
saturday/saturday night rain chance doesn`t have much model
agreement at this point. so, a series of high pressure systems move
through and the area remains underneath an area of subsidence as a
result.

highs in the 70s to around 80 today through thursday, trend lower,
behind the cold front thursday night, allowing for a return to highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s for friday through early next
week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 129 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

a mid level ridge axis maintains its influence across the
southern great lakes region this afternoon with weak mid level
subsidence and relatively dry low/mid level air in place. this
ridge axis will shift across the eastern great lakes tonight as
a mid level short wave trough ejects northeast out of the south
dakota into the western great lakes. this short wave will allow
a low level front to approach the western great lakes
overnight, but the dampening nature of this trough will hang up
this baroclinic zone on wednesday. stronger isentropic ascent in
association with this boundary will be the focus for increased
potential of rain showers at ksbn toward end of this forecast
valid period. kfwa still appears to be somewhat southeast
displaced from stronger forcing and overall dampening nature of
the great lakes wave still leads to questions at kfwa
experiencing any precip through the day on wednesday. vfr
conditions are expected to persist through this period with
light south winds continuing.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 291704
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
104 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant conditions again today.

- rain chances increase wednesday and continue through friday with
cooler temperatures expected friday into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a very dry and stable environment will hold firm through tonight,
sustained by lingering high pressure slowly exiting to the east.
this will maintain limited cloud production into the evening hours,
while winds remain modest from the south. cirrus will thicken with
time tonight downstream of a low pressure system lifting through the
upper midwest. this cloud cover combined with persistent light
southerly gradient will preclude greater fog concerns for the early
morning hours. a more pronounced increase in mid level moisture will
offer some potential for showers to develop across mainly near mbs
starting later wednesday morning. vfr conditions will persist all
locations as ceiling gradually lower throughout wednesday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 349 am edt tue sep 29 2026

discussion...

1018 mb surface high pressure drifts overhead this morning, causing
calm winds to organize out of the southwest by early afternoon. for
now, weak gradient flow and clear skies has led to early stages of
radiative fog development. the best signal for this holds over the
saginaw valley/thumb in closer proximity to lake moisture, but not
out of the question to see some patchy fog develop further south.
otherwise, expecting another sunny and dry fall day with highs in
the mid-70s.

in regards to our late week system, there have been a few notable
trends in the 18z/00z guidance. the first is wednesday, in which
models are trending toward a stronger southern stream low lifting
along the eastern conus ridge and into northern lower mi. the
stronger wave is able to flatten the western flank of the ridge to
bring forcing/moisture and thus rain chances into the saginaw
valley/thumb regions wednesday morning. there are still concerns
about how well the low levels can top-down saturate given the lag in
gulf moisture transport, but recent soundings show a shallower layer
of dry air. nbm pops have increased accordingly with 40-60% rain
chances showing up north of m-59 for wednesday. elsewhere, increasing
cloud cover is expected but greater depth to the dry air should keep
precipitation limited wednesday.

second trend has been a more uncertain forecast for wednesday night
into thursday as hurricane polo makes its extratropical transition
and sends a warm front into the great lakes. the trend has been for
the bulk of moisture transport to be anchored more closely to the
deformation axis, keeping it west of se michigan. disjointed column
moisture thus limits confidence in rain chances until the next wave
of moisture arrives thursday night. regardless of moisture
transport, the strong sw llj will ensure warmer temperatures thursday
with highs in the upper 70s and breezy conditions (20-25 mph gusts).

while model divergence increases daytime thursday, it then converges
again as the cold front slides through early friday morning and
connects with the shearing tropical moisture. this will be our best
chance at heavy rainfall as models hint at frontogenetic enhancement
to the precipitation axis, even as mucape holds under 500 j/kg. one
of the other notable trends in the guidance was the phasing of the
pacific closed low with the northern stream trough, which ultimately
delays the clearance of the surface trough to friday afternoon. this
keeps rain chances going through at least the first half of friday,
which combined with earlier start to precipitation wednesday boosts
qpf totals toward an inch or greater by friday night. this will
especially be the case north of m-59, where there has been an
increase in the number of 1+ inch ensemble member forecasts.

aggressive drying trend arrives friday night into saturday post-
front. assuming saturated ground and full clearing, radiative fog
potential returns saturday morning. encroaching thermal trough will
bring high temperatures for next weekend into the mid-60s with lows
in the 40s.

marine...

light and variable winds mainly under 15 knots today as high
pressure slowly slides east of the central great lakes. south to
southwest winds will then increase ahead of the next cold front,
which slowly moves through on thursday. with the warm advection
leading to more stable profiles and showers moving through during
this timeframe, wind gusts are expected to top out only around 25
knots. a better chance to briefly exceed 25 knots exists behind the
front thursday evening/night with cold advection, as 850 mb temps
lower into the mid single digits by friday morning.

another large area of high pressure building in on friday and
saturday will promote light winds for the first half of the weekend.
a stronger low tracking through the northern great lakes for the
second half of the weekend brings another opportunity for winds to
reach or exceed 25 knots over lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......sf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.