Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
079
fxus61 kcle 271734
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
134 pm edt fri mar 27 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track. no notable changes made to previous
forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) cool weather is expected through sunday with some minor snow
chances late tonight into saturday morning. negligible impacts
from the snow are expected at this time.

2) the weather pattern returns to unsettled from monday through
much of next week with above normal temperatures and
thunderstorm chances tuesday through thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure builds across the region from the north leading to
continued cool conditions through sunday. primarily dry weather is
expected this weekend, though some light snow showers can`t be
ruled out overnight tonight into early saturday morning as an
upper trough swings east across the lower great lakes.
anticipate snowfall accumulations and impacts to be
inconsequential. lows tonight fall into the low to mid 20s
areawide. highs on saturday in the mid 30s across northwest
pennsylvania and the low/mid 40s elsewhere. remaining chilly
saturday night with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. the
surface high will build east towards the mid-atlantic region
saturday night into sunday ushering in warmer conditions. highs
rise into the mid 50s on sunday, roughly 10-15 degrees warmer
than saturday.

key message 2...
warmer but unsettled conditions are expected through next week as a
series of fronts and upper shortwaves move through the region.
a warm front will lift through the forecast area on sunday night
into monday which may allow for some isolated rain showers to
develop across the ohio valley. another warm front will enter on
tuesday with showers and storms possible across the forecast
area. the highest chances for rain and thunderstorms will come
on wednesday as a cold front pushes southeast across the
forecast area. precipitation chances continue on thursday as the
aforementioned front stalls south of the forecast area.

highs in the 60s on monday will warm into 70s by tuesday behind the
warm front. cooler behind the cold front wednesday and thursday with
highs in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
conditions across the region are mainly mvfr due to low
ceilings, though there are pockets of vfr forming across ne oh
and nw pa. expected ceilings to continue to clear out/rise to
vfr this evening. a shortwave feature will move across the
region late tonight bringing in widespread ceilings generally
staying vfr. light snow showers are possible early saturday
morning, impacting most terminals that could bring visibility
and ceilings down to non-vfr. omitted kfdy and kmfd from the
snow showers with low confidence of non-vfr conditions due to
snow showers. conditions will improve after the feature moves
off to the east and ceilings will rise to vfr from west to east
throughout the day.

winds currently are out of the north at around 10 knots with
occasional gusts to 15-20 knots. overnight, winds will begin to
back to be more northwesterly at 5-10 knots then become westerly
by the end of the taf period has high pressure builds in from
the west.

outlook...non-vfr possible starting on monday with rain
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie have been slowly diminishing throughout the
day and are currently sitting at 10-15 knots out of the north-
northeast. waves are diminishing as well as a response and will
subside to less than 3 feet by this evening. the small craft
advisories have been allowed to expire with conditions improving.
overnight, winds will be out of the north at 5-10 knots. there will
be a brief increase in the winds to 10-15 knots saturday morning as
a weak feature moves across the region. behind this feature, winds
will shift to be out of the southwest at 5-10 knots increasing to 10-
15 knots by late saturday night through late monday night. by
tuesday, a cold front will waver across the region and winds will
increase to 15-25 knots out of the southwest for the western two-
thirds of the lake and be 10-20 knots for the eastern third. with
the offshore flow, waves will generally stay around 2-4 feet with
some higher waves near 6 feet possible in the open waters. a small
craft advisory will likely be needed during this time frame through
late tuesday night. by wednesday, winds will shift to be out of the
northwest and subside to around 10-20 knots across the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez144>147.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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313
fxus63 kiwx 272320
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
720 pm edt fri mar 27 2026

.key messages...

- chilly tonight into saturday with lows in the 20s and highs in
the 40s.

- warming trend sunday through tuesday with highs well into the 70s
by tuesday.

- showers and chances for storms return monday night through
wednesday, best chances tuesday night (70%).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 211 pm edt fri mar 27 2026

a moisture starved shortwave will drop southeast through the central
great lakes tonight bringing a secondary surge of colder air through
into saturday morning. a few flurries may even clip northeast
portions of the forecast area tonight along the associated secondary
trough. a broad surface high will then move overhead on saturday
behind tonight`s wave with light winds and plenty of sunshine.
thermal troughing will be slow to erode however with saturday`s
highs only reach the 40s.

low amplitude, upper ridging builds east into the midwest sunday
into monday, while low level southwest flow increases on the
backside of saturday`s low level anticyclone. this will support a
warming trend with highs recovering up to near 60 sunday, and 70
monday. better moisture return in this regime doesn`t really kick in
until later sunday and monday when a weak warm front will lift
through. deeper moisture does appear limited however with a dry
forecast retained.

a relatively strong shortwave trough will track east through the
upper midwest and great lakes monday night into tuesday night. this
upper wave and ongoing low level moisture advection will allow a sfc
low to develop into the western/northern great lakes, which will
eventually force a trailing cold front through around tuesday night.
a lead wave lifting out of the four corners and decent advective
forcing could be enough to generate showers/storms as early as
monday night, with most of tuesday likely warm, breezy and unstable
in the system warm sector. widespread showers and thunderstorms
would likely accompany the frontal passage tuesday night given the
good forcing and adequate moisture/lapse rates/instability. there
remains model spread however regarding the timing and low level
moisture return. with that said, this is the next period of
interest to watch for heavy rain and strong to severe storms.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 720 pm edt fri mar 27 2026

a cold front will cross the area tonight but dry low levels will
keep ceilings above 4 kft. a slight uptick in wind is possible
immediately behind the front but any gusts should remain below
20 kts. winds back on saturday with some midlevel clouds
possible given warm/moist air advection aloft but low levels
remain dry with light surface winds as well.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 1 am to 11 am edt saturday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
749
fxus63 kdtx 272251
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
651 pm edt fri mar 27 2026

.key messages...

- passing low brings flurries and widely scattered snow showers
tonight. some minor accumulations of a dusting to a few tenths
possible mainly in the saginaw valley/thumb.

- warming trend into the weekend with dry conditions. lower 70s will
be possible by tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

mid level wave on pace to traverse the region tonight. lingering
pockets of higher based scattered to broken vfr cloud this evening,
before transitioning toward a thicker coverage of cloud between 5
and 9k ft overnight. arrival of the wave will maintain a low
probability for an hour or two of light snow between 04z and 08z,
possibility resulting in brief mvfr restrictions. clearing skies in
the wake as northwest wind picks up in speed with some gustiness
into the morning period. vfr conditions prevail saturday within a
more limited coverage of diurnal cu and some thickening high based
cloud in the afternoon. northwest winds backing to southwesterly
thru the day as high pressure builds in from the west.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this evening. moderate tonight
after midnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 pm edt fri mar 27 2026

discussion...

zonal polar jet axis over the northern tier of states with the
shallow cold air mass in place down through the tennessee river
valley will result in below normal temperatures through the first
half of the upcoming weekend. low amplitude composite trough and
associated absolute vorticity will dig through northern lower
michigan this evening and the thumb tonight. low-midlevel cold
advection from the trough will steepen lapse rates modestly in the
surface to 8.0 kft agl layer contributing to supersaturation with
respect to ice through the dendritic growth zone. best mesoscale
convergence forcing is progged for northern lower michigan this
evening with a weakening in the convergence field as it crosses the
area 3-9z. the going forecast has a slight chance for snow showers.
perhaps a couple of tenths or up to a half inch will be possible on
grassy surfaces.

large scale subsidence will support surface high pressure over the
region on saturday. chilly but sunny conditions are expected with
morning windchills in the upper teens/lower 20s only making it into
the middle to upper 30s.

anticyclonically curved jet exit region pushing across the northern
great lakes brings rising geopotential heights and air mass recovery
for sunday and the beginning of next week. 850mb temperatures are
forecasted to warm from around 0c sunday morning to +12c tuesday.
consensus of global deterministic solutions suggests a mid-latitude
cyclone tracking in vicinity of lake superior and lake huron with
the warm sector in place over all of the forecast area. this
supports a warm rain precipitation type for the area with a lower
confidence on the timing of the cold front. current nbm data
suggests some uncertainty with the northward progressive of the cold
front, however 25th and 75th percentiles suggest 70s will be likely
tuesday for those locations south of any low level baroclinic zone
or warm front.

marine...

small craft advisory waves across the southern lake huron nearshores
fall below criteria this evening as high pressure influence weakens
existing onshore flow. the advisory will be allowed to expire on-
schedule. a weak cold front brings widely scattered snow showers to
the central great lakes overnight, followed by a shift to increasing
northwest flow into saturday, behind the front. the northwesterly
direction keeps higher waves more so over the open waters of the
huron basin, until winds lessen and back southwesterly saturday
night. an additional brief small craft advisory may be needed
between port austin and harbor beach for occasional waves to 5 feet
early saturday. winds and waves then remain in-check with dry
weather sunday and monday. an extended window for showers and
thunderstorms exists late monday through tuesday. stronger
prevailing winds are expected tuesday with the arrival of a low
pressure system, although gale-froce gusts are unlikely at this time
horizon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......kgk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.