Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
877
fxus61 kcle 291130
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
730 am edt mon jun 29 2026

.what has changed...
no changes as today marks the beginning of the heat building into
our cwa.

&&

.key messages...
1) hot and humid this week under a strong upper level ridge.

2) chances for showers and storms return friday through the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
there are no large scale changes to the forecast for this week and
the impending heat wave that will begin building into the western
zones today. upper level ridging builds into the ohio valley for the
middle of the week as has been a consistent feature in the forecast
models for several days now. nam is now giving 850mb temperatures in
the 25-26c range for wednesday which reaffirms the upper 90s in the
forecast for wednesday into thursday while dewpoints this week will
be anywhere from the mid 60s to lower 70s. from a milestone
standpoint, a big question will be if any of the official climate
sites will hit the 100f mark at any point this week, again, with the
best chances being wednesday and thursday. see the climate section
below for record high temperatures for these climate sites as we go
into this heat wave. heat advisory in place for much of the cwa.
temperatures look to retreat slightly friday, and then further into
the weekend, although still above normal through next monday.

key message 2...
upper ridge breaks down friday with the flow aloft turning either
more zonal or slight southwesterly. this will allow a return of
upper level waves into the region, and chances for convection will
be on the rise. as mentioned during the forecast process last night,
will need to see how details unfold with this pattern as to whether
or not any organized systems encounter the cwa. but during peak
daytime heating hours for friday into the weekend, pops in the 40
percent range will not be unreasonable going forward.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
for the eastern portion of the airspace, some sunrise fog/mist
has developed but has largely missed the terminals. these
conditions should mix out over the next hour or two. to the
west, some rain and mid-level clouds has entered the region
ahead of a warm front. an increase in moisture in this region
has allow for some mvfr to develop, which should also quickly
mix out this morning. overall, the theme for today is vfr with a
mix of mid- and high-level clouds with intermittent ceilings.
for kcle and keri, there will be a lake breeze that will reach
the terminals this afternoon, shifting flow to the northeast.
otherwise, all terminals will have generally light southerly
flow.

outlook...vfr.

&&

.marine...
high pressure east of the lake will allow for light southeast
flow today. a warm front will cross the lake tonight and shift
winds to the south then southwest. southwest flow averaging 10
kts will then remain over the lake through friday. no marine
headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.climate...
hotter and more humid weather is expected this monday through friday.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt thursday for ohz003-
006-017.
heat advisory from noon tuesday to 8 pm edt thursday for
ohz007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
746
fxus63 kiwx 291026
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
626 am edt mon jun 29 2026

.key messages...

- isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms toward the i-69
corridor early this morning.

- extreme heat warning is in effect through thursday evening
for an extended period of high heat indices and limited
nighttime cooling.

- heat may remain a concern friday, but chances for showers and
thunderstorms begin to increase resulting in lower confidence
on the amount of impacts.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 am edt mon jun 29 2026

an isolated area of showers persists early this morning associated
with upstream convection earlier in the day, embedded within an
upper-level disturbance now spilling over the eastern great lakes.
despite an overall absence of meaningful upper-level support, this
activity has survived within a narrow corridor of 500 j/kg of mucape
and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 c/km.

an extreme heat warning remains in effect through thursday as a 594
dm ridge builds over the area. daily highs in the 90s with afternoon
heat indicies of 100-105 can take its toll. as mentioned in this
space, heat headlines may need to carry on into friday but the
possibility of showers and storms diminishes confidence somewhat.
during this stretch of heat, the naefs depicts 99th percentile
temperatures and upper-level heights relative to 1979-2009
climatology. this highlights the magnitude of this bout of heat.
precipitable water values are in the 90th percentile, marking an
unseasonably humid air mass.

high temperatures are likely safe this week, with records of 98 to
101 noted at fort wayne and south bend. however, "warm" low
temperature records may be set, with records currently in the mid-
70s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 621 am edt mon jun 29 2026

variable cloudiness this morning with debris clouds from earlier
showers and thunderstorms, and even from convection crossing far
northern lake michigan this hour. a warm front lifts north today
which should allow ceilings should sct out. a few wind gust
near 20 knots this afternoon with an increasing pressure
gradient.

during this hot and humid stretch, cannot rule out patchy
ground fog daily near sunrise. time height cross sections
depict low- level moisture pooling beneath a weak inversion, but
wind tuesday morning above 5 knots may keep any br at bay.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning from 2 pm edt /1 pm cdt/ this afternoon
to 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for inz005>009-012>015-
017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt
thursday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt
thursday for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
507
fxus63 kdtx 290911
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
511 am edt mon jun 29 2026

.key messages...

- increasingly hot and humid conditions develop today, with peak
afternoon heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s.

- extreme heat watch in effect tuesday to thursday with highs
reaching the mid-upper 90s to 100 degrees and heat indices in
excess of 105 degrees each day. there will be little nighttime
relief with lows in the mid 70s each night.

- hot and humid conditions extend into friday and the holiday weekend
with potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

line of showers still remains partially in tact as it moves into se
michigan this morning, with the main impact being pockets of low vfr
(3.0-5.0 kft) mixed with the more widespread mid cloud and perhaps a
few sprinkles. this cloud plume is shearing into the ohio valley as
an anomalous ridge builds into the great lakes, but will be replaced
with some mid-level convective cloud debris streaming in from
convection that has developed over the upper peninsula. current
trajectory of this convection looks unlikely to make a sharp
southward dive toward se michigan, so opted for a dry forecast today
and tonight. stubborn southeast flow holds on through tonight until
the surface warm front eventually lifts through, causing winds to
become southwesterly by tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are forecast today or tonight
with ongoing convection looking to stay over northern lower
michigan.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 307 am edt mon jun 29 2026

discussion...

prolonged high magnitude heat episode set to grip the region
throughout the upcoming work week. early morning surface analysis
shows a northeastward propagating warm frontal boundary draped
across the northern ohio valley, marking the lead edge of a deeper
moisture plume projected to steadily advect into lower michigan over
the next 24 hours. this upward adjustment in low level moisture
quality occurs within the backdrop of substantial growth in the
upper height field with time, as the northern expanse of an
expanding 594 dam upper level high pressure system dominates across
the eastern/southern conus. likelihood for some degree of higher
based cloud to exist at times today, as decaying areas of convection
originating from northeast wi drift southeast along the advancing
theta-e gradient. generally weak, ill-defined ascent exists locally,
but the advective process may prove sufficient to generate/sustain a
lower coverage of garden variety convection. confidence in
occurrence remains quite low, with general model consensus offering
chances at less than 20 percent through this evening. with this
said, some disruption to the diurnal heating process remains
possible. a notable step up in both temperature and humidity
expected with time today, bringing highs into the 90 to 94 degree
range. nbm projection of dewpoint appears a touch aggressive for the
daylight hours, considering low level flow still features greater
influence from the southeast until this evening. slight downward
revision in expected heat index as a result, but with readings still
solidly peaking briefly in the mid to upper 90s most locations
/highest west of i-75/.

the multi-day heat wave will see a peak in intensity across the
tuesday through thursday window, as the sprawling, anomalous
subtropical ridge centers just south of the region and effectively
maintains a core of 850 mb temperatures within the 23 to 25c range.
widespread ambient highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected, with
some locations making a run at 100 degrees. the oppressive humidity
as dewpoints remain in the low to mid 70s will drive peak afternoon
heat index values to between 105 and 110 degrees. minimal overnight
cooling is forecast. lows will struggle to drop below the mid to
upper 70s, with some areas within the metro urban heat island near
80 degrees overnight. extremely low convective potential during this
period, owing to strong mid-level capping and robust subsidence
within the influence of upper ridging, with a storm track still
favored to hold just to the north and west. an extreme heat watch
remains in effect for this time.

heat will remain elevated friday and into the upcoming weekend.
magnitude of the warmth becomes less certain as upper ridging
influence relaxes as upper heights gradually dampen with time, while
convective potential increases as prospective shortwaves begin to
work across the northern periphery of the suppressing heat dome.
medium-range ensemble guidance indicates the upper-level ridge axis
will anchor itself over the southern us/ohio valley, keeping lower
michigan warmer and more humid than average heading into the second
week of july.

marine...

a strong low over the northern plains will pull a warm front up
through the region on monday. winds will veer more out of the
southeast by morning. this will hold through today as gusts reach 20
knots across lake huron. there is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon along the front
especially across the north half of lake huron. by tuesday morning,
winds will have become southwesterly while again topping out around
20 knots. though the gradient increases, stability also increases
under a very warm airmass which will limit gust potential.

climate...

daily records for the upcoming week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 96 (1933) 77 (1945)
tue june 30 96 (1931) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1934) 75 (1945)
tue june 30 98 (1933) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1971) 75 (1971)
tue june 30 99 (1964) 77 (2018)
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat watch from tuesday afternoon through thursday evening
for miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...mr
marine.......drk
climate......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.