Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 121926
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
326 pm edt mon oct 12 2026

.what has changed...
the probability of record-breaking temperatures is increasing
for tuesday. otherwise, no significant changes needed with this
update.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled weather expected tuesday through the middle of the week
with record high temperatures possible on tuesday.

2) a strong low pressure system moves through the region with
rain, strong winds, and the coldest air of the season thus far friday
through the weekend. sub-freezing temperatures are likely across
portions of the area saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the local area will be in the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front tonight through tuesday before the front
finally pushes southeast across the area late tuesday into wednesday.
a shortwave will cross lake erie and ne oh/nw pa tonight into
early tuesday morning, resulting in a chance of isolated showers
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder across the northeastern
portion of the local area.

deep warm air advection is expected on tuesday with widespread
temperatures in the 80s expected. several locations across
northern ohio will likely reach the mid to upper 80s (best
chance along/west of i-71), which will challenge daily high
temperature records (see climate section at the bottom of this
afd). in addition to the warm temperatures, dew points will
climb well into the 60s tuesday afternoon so it will certainly
feel muggier than the recent stretch of crisp early fall
weather. it will also be quite breezy with southwest wind gusts
to 20 to 30 mph expected during peak diurnal mixing late tuesday
morning into tuesday afternoon.

the best chance of precipitation will arrive with the cold front
late tuesday night into wednesday. there will be instability and
plenty of moisture across the area so thunderstorms are
possible, although widespread cloud cover and showers early in
the day will mitigate the risk of stronger thunderstorms. rain
may be moderate to heavy at times wednesday morning into early
wednesday afternoon.

key message 2...
a brief break in precip is expected wednesday evening through
thursday morning, but the next (and more potent) system will
move into the region starting thursday afternoon. showers are
expected and a few thunderstorms are possible as the system`s
cold front approaches and moves east across the area thursday
afternoon through early friday with scattered lake-enhanced
showers continuing through friday and maybe as late as saturday
as the associated strong upper trough lags behind the initial
surface front. it will be quite windy as strong high pressure
attempts to build east into the region friday and gusts to 35
to 40 mph are likely areawide friday afternoon with locally
higher gusts possible close to lake erie. the back side of the
system will usher some of the coldest temperatures of the season
thus far into the area with widespread highs in the upper 40s
into the 50s expected saturday. frost headlines are possible as
temperatures dip into the upper 30s friday night, although
there is a higher chance of frost and even freeze headlines as
temps drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s saturday night.
temperatures might even be cold enough across portions of nw pa
to warrant a low-end chance of the first few snowflakes of the
season mixing in with rain early saturday. temperatures will
begin to recover sunday as the high takes control of the eastern
conus.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
earlier lower clouds have finally cleared out, leaving vfr
conditions that should mainly persist through the taf period.
a brief surge of mid-level moisture and lift will lead to a
cloud deck around 10,000 feet moving across the area late
tonight into early tuesday...some showers may fall out of this
deck across northern terminals (tol-cle-eri), with the greatest
potential at eri where a prob30 was introduced.

south-southwest winds this afternoon will remain at a similar
direction through tuesday, veering slightly more southwest
tuesday afternoon. speeds of 6-12kt will remain common through
much of tonight, increasing to 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt on
monday. included a brief window of marginal llws at tol early
tuesday morning due to an expected 40kt low-level jet atop a
near-surface inversion. the low-level jet is several knots
weaker elsewhere, precluding llws in the other tafs.

outlook...intermittent non-vfr likely late tuesday night into
wednesday with showers and a lower potential for thunderstorms.
additional non-vfr in rain showers along with gusty winds
likely thursday night through friday night.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds to 10 to 20 knots are expected over lake erie
through tuesday. the highest winds will be in the open waters
through tuesday afternoon, but winds in nearshore zones in the
western basin will approach 20 knots tuesday afternoon. in
general, the offshore flow will focus any higher waves into the
open waters, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds and the
resulting wave heights from roughly willowick oh to ripley ny
tuesday afternoon. winds will shift to the west/northwest and
diminish to 10 knots or less behind a cold front tuesday night
into early wednesday with north/northeast winds to 10 to 20
knots developing by wednesday night. the most unsettled marine
conditions of the week (and the season thus far) will arrive
friday as a strong low pressure system moves across the area.
west/northwest winds to 25 to 35 knots are currently forecast
and gale warnings will likely be needed for the end of the week
if the forecast remains valid. winds should gradually diminish
late friday through saturday, although small craft advisories
will be needed through the first half of the weekend.

&&

.climate...
temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
northwest and north central ohio on tuesday. records for october 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.


date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sullivan
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 121854
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
254 pm edt mon oct 12 2026

.key messages...

- unseasonably warm conditions continue into tuesday with record
or near record high temperatures expected. tuesday may also
approach record warm minimum temperatures for the date.

- low chances (<20%) for a few showers and storms along and north of
us route 6 tonight.

- additional periods of greater rain shower chances (40-70%)
arrive in two waves, one for tuesday night into early
wednesday afternoon and another wave on thursday. a few
thunderstorms are possible.

- turning much cooler for friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 245 pm edt mon oct 12 2026

a warm, moist advective regime is underway this afternoon as a
low level ridge axis continues to shift east of the area. the
more impressive low level theta-e ridging is expected to develop
this evening from ne ks into sw wi just downstream of a
progressive weak short wave trough ejecting northeast out of the
northern rockies. precip prospects with an initial strong 310k
isentropic forcing surge early this evening appear to be on the
low side as better elevated moisture profiles more capable of
realizing some weak elevated instability will remain displaced
to the west. by late evening and overnight, isolated showers and
thunderstorms prospects increase as upstream flattening upper
ridge allows some steeper mid level lapse rates to advect
eastward to the mid ms river valley and southern great lakes.
this later timing will also coincide with the northeast
progression of the primary low level theta-e ridge and a
potential of some 500-750 j/kg mucapes. previous forecast
mention of slight chance pops north of us route 6 still seems
appropriate as better isentropic forcing and stronger flow on
310k sfc remain across the north. cannot completely discount an
isolated shower south of us route 6 however, given broad nature
of advective forcing.

in terms of temperatures, broad warm advective pattern will allow
for unseasonably mild min temperatures tonight. modest low level dew
points and boundary layer decoupling should allow mins to drop into
the mid 60s and extent of lows will depend on extent of decoupling
and the presence of any mid level warm advection-induced
clouds.

pre-frontal forcing will begin to shift eastward tuesday morning
setting up another warm today for mid-october. the aforementioned
western great lakes short wave will depart to the east, reaching the
eastern great lakes by tuesday evening. this evolution and southeast
sinking cut-off upper low across southwest conus will allow
associated cold frontal boundary to stall across the area tuesday
night. much above normal temperatures will continue tuesday with
some uncertainty as to extent of high temperatures. mixing heights
may not be particularly deep given very warm low level thermal
profiles, but even mixing to 900 mb would support high
temperatures in the low-mid 80s most locations (possibly upper
80s to around 90 far south). these high temperatures would
approach or break records for the date of october 13 (84 at fwa
set in 1975 and 1899 and 86 at sbn set in 1975). once again, the
extent of lingering mid level cloud will likely play a factor
in extent of max temps.

by tuesday night, a plume of higher level theta-e air will advect
northward into the mid ms rvr valley and eventually the southern
great lakes, while another northern stream trough eventually allows
for some frontal forcing to interact with this deeper moisture.
likely pops have been maintained late tuesday night into early
wednesday afternoon with a potential of a few thunderstorms given
likely presence of elevated instability. frontal zone once again
should stall and become less distinct locally later in the day
wednesday, setting up a lull in rain chances wed night into early
thu.

attention will then turn to a stronger short wave amplifying
across southwest canada, and potentially phasing with the cut-
off negative upper height anomaly across the central plains
towards the end of the work week. gfs deterministic may be a
bit aggressive in phasing these features when considering bulk
of gefs and ec deterministic/ensemble guidance. nonetheless,
this northern stream wave will have some good upper level
dynamics to work with and a stronger eastern pacific jet to help
induce cyclogenesis across eastern great lakes late thu/fri.

another round of widespread rain is expected thu/thu evening as
another frontal wave develops along the baroclinic zone,
eventually drying out for friday outside of some likely lake
effect rain shower response. windy conditions are also expected
friday, and will depend on extent of low level cyclogenesis and
low level height gradient. however, gusts into the 30 to 40 mph
range look possible during the day friday given what should be
fairly deep caa-induced mixing. some frost/freeze concerns may
develop for friday night/saturday am but will depend on
progression of this pattern and how quickly low level
anticyclone settles into the area and cloud cover. greater
chances of these frost/freeze concerns may hold off until later
in the weekend. after a transition to below normal temps for the
weekend, temps should moderate back to, or just above normal
levels early next week with dry weather expected sat to mon.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1208 pm edt mon oct 12 2026

vfr with southwest winds generally hovering around 10 knots
through the period. low level jet does ramp up a bit tonight as
a frontal wave tracks east through the central great lakes.
this could bring some marginal llws to mainly ksbn tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 122010
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
410 pm edt mon oct 12 2026

.key messages...

- scatted showers with a few isolated thunderstorms overnight.

- unseasonably warm tuesday with highs above 80f.

- showers possible tuesday night into wednesday.

- turning more seasonable thursday and friday, then becoming chillier
over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

very warm today with a record high already broken at fnt, based on a
20z obs of 85f, but even warmer readings exist further northwest as
ikw, mbs, and hyx log readings of 88f, 86f, and 86f, respectively.

an active period of weather gets underway this week as the upper
level jet approaches the great lakes and then fixates through the
workweek. at the surface, a chain of surface low pressures is
anchored to a stationary front extending from the high plains to the
upper midwest. a shortwave trough will eject from a deep upper low
stuck over nevada tonight to establish a primary surface wave that
will reach lower michigan on tuesday. meanwhile, a 594 dam 500 mb
ridge of high pressure situated over the gulf coast supports
continued anticyclonic warm/moist advection into the region.
moisture metrics are already on the rise this afternoon with most
asos/awos sites reporting 60+ dewpoints. this ensures a mild night
with overnight lows in the mid (perhaps upper) 60s, or about 20f
above climatological normals. before the low makes any progress into
northern lower, isentropic upsloping produces an uptick in mid
column saturation (700-500 mb) while drier air resides within an
elevated warm layer (925-800 mb). scattered overnight showers will
partially fill in overnight, and remain elevated. forecast soundings
show some elevated instability, maximizing at around 200 j/kg, so
some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. no severe weather
concerns given the lack of cape density for severe hail and near-
surface stability to dampen the wind gust response.

cams show conditions drying out pretty quickly tuesday morning given
how quickly low and mid level moisture is stripped out, after flow
veers wnw. the main forecast consideration will be temperature
trends for the rest of the day with 925 mb temperatures starting out
in the low 20s (celsius). skies should also clear out for the peak
diurnal heating cycle, adding to the insolation potential. models
differ in timing the arrival of the primary cold front, but the more
delayed the boundary is, the higher the possible max temperature
will be. the latest nbm 5th percentile has 80s across most of metro
detroit, so nwp confidence is high for another day with highs of
80f. the record high for dtw on october 13 is within reach at 83f in
1975. seasonably mild tuesday night behind the front, although still
a 20+ degree nocturnal drop, even with thickening cloud cover.

the cold front looks to stall out near the michigan/ohio border
tuesday night and wednesday as the jet axis approaches aloft.
numerous shortwave interactions promote a perturbed geopotential
height field offering additional chances for precipitation. this
will be augmented by the gulf ridge which will still be in place,
renewing theta-e advection. limited cape, but non-zero leaves a
chance for a rumble of thunder. any shower activity that continues
into the daylight hours will be brief as shortwave ridging builds in
from the west, and flow flips nne, dislodging the boundary. this
also allows a more seasonable airmass to filter in from ontario.
cold advection persists into thursday, before the next wave of low
pressure lifts into southern lower thursday evening or during the
overnight hours. this brings another round of rain and a cold front.
cooler and drier conditions develop friday, lasting through the
weekend.

&&

.marine...

low pressure will travel from the plains into northern lower
michigan tonight through tomorrow morning. this will quickly
strengthen the pressure gradient ahead of the arrival of this
system, increasing the magnitude of southwest flow across southern
lake huron, lake st. clair, and lake erie. more tempered northerly
flow will be found across northern lake huron through the morning.
as low pressure progresses east into new england, wind direction
will back more westerly through the afternoon, which will bring a
window for some breezy conditions across the southern great lakes.
wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots will be possible, with wind speeds
quickly diminishing through the evening as the pressure gradient
weakens. rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms will be
likely through tomorrow.

a cold front will then push through the great lakes wednesday,
stalling across southern michigan by the afternoon. the favorable
northwest fetch will produce wind gusts 20 to 30 knots across
northern lake huron. high pressure to then build in through thursday
which will bring a period of light winds for the day. confidence is
increasing for a strong cold front to pass friday into saturday.
instability will increase over the lakes in the wake of the front
given the advent of cold air over the warmer lake waters. coupled
with longer duration northwest flow, a longer duration gale event is
looking increasingly likely to end the week.

&&

.climate...

record high max temperatures for october 13th:

detroit: 83 degrees (set in 1975)
flint: 83 degrees (set in 1975)
saginaw: 86 degrees (set in 1930)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 205 pm edt mon oct 12 2026

aviation...

longwave ridging will expand eastward today and tonight continuing a
strong warm advection episode across the great lakes. warming in the
lowest 6.0 kft agl maintains high stability and vfr conditions
through the early to mid evening hours. synoptic scale ascent
combined with a jet exit region will then support a wave of low
pressure and fast moving low through lake superior basin tonight and
tuesday. introduction of thetae/moisture at/above 7.0 kft agl will
create conditionally unstable conditions aloft tonight. differential
cyclonic vorticity advection looks to bring a period of showers or
elevated thunder to mbs between 04-07z with a lower probability at
the metro detroit taf sites. post frontal subsidence is forecasted
to result in a capping inversion for the daytime tuesday. lower
mixing depths will help to tame winds during the daytime to the 15
to 30 knot range.

d21/dtw convection... very low chance for a thunderstorm late
tonight near dtw or in the d21 airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms in the 05-08z time window tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......am
climate......kgk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.