Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
212
fxus61 kcle 041847
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
247 pm edt tue aug 4 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes made with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions continue today before a series of disturbances
marks the return of showers and thunderstorms chances wednesday
afternoon through at the early part of the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry weather will continue through wednesday morning as high
pressure maintains influence over the region. the high will
drift east on wednesday, resulting in the return of chances of
scattered diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms, primarily
east of i-71. on thursday, an upper trough and slow-moving
frontal boundary will move east towards the area. while there`s
potential that most of the area could be between more widespread
shower/thunderstorms to the east and west, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the entire area with the
highest pops across nw oh and the far eastern fringe of the
local area. locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern with
thunderstorms thursday given dew points well into the 60s and
pwat values of 1.5 to possibly even 2 inches. the severe weather
risk is low given the lack of forcing/shear.

confidence in widespread showers/storms is highest on friday as
the frontal boundary moves east into the area with scattered
showers and storms possible into the weekend as the front slowly
moves east across the region. organized thunderstorms (some
possibly strong) can`t be ruled out since shear will be higher,
but will need to see how much we destabilize before peak
diurnal instability. it`s possible that early day showers and
storms limit the severe weather threat. will need to monitor
friday for heavy rainfall due to mean flow parallel to the
frontal boundary and continued moisture across the region.

a break in showers/storms is possible at some point over the
weekend, but it looks like the unsettled weather pattern will
continue late weekend into early next week as zonal flow
develops over the region and disturbances ride east across the
area.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will continue for this taf update through
wednesday morning. skies will be mostly clear. winds will be
light and variable 5 knots or less. there will be a light lake
breeze at cle and eri this afternoon. winds will gradually
become southeasterly by wednesday morning around 5 knots.

outlook...widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-
vfr conditions possible across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania wednesday afternoon and evening. showers, and
occasional storms, will become more widespread across the region
thursday, and continue into the weekend.

&&

.marine...
overall winds on lake erie will be light with speeds 12 knots
or less through the rest of this week. waves will be generally 1
to 2 feet for the rest of the week. daily afternoon lake
breezes can be expected through the end of the week. scattered
thunderstorm chances will return thursday into the weekend and
could result in localized erratic winds and wave conditions. no
headlines are expected for lake erie through the end of the
week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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343
fxus63 kiwx 041849
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
249 pm edt tue aug 4 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions today into wednesday with highs in the low-to-
mid 80s.

- chances (40-80 percent) for showers and storms return
wednesday evening and persist into friday. heavy rain is
possible.

- low chances for showers and storms saturday into tuesday(20-40
percent).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 210 pm edt tue aug 4 2026

dry conditions with seasonable temperatures continue today with
the western side of the upper level ridging still in place.
wednesday morning and into the afternoon looks to also remain
dry however, we will see the advertised trough and associated
cold front begin to push into the region tomorrow. some
uncertainty now exists with latest guidance and synoptic
conditions indicating that the main energy/cold pool associated
with the trough centered over central canada may push further
north (staying within canada`s borders). this would make the
cold pool behind the cold front weaker and would also orphan the
front and would become washed out and make for much slower
progression of the boundary. this boundary though still looks to
act as a focal point for lifting and will allow for some
convection to develop along its lateral. with adequate moisture
present (pwats still around 1.5 to 2 inches) and the slow speed
of the boundary will make for favorable training of cells to
potentially create heavier rainfall wherever the boundary sits
over. wpc has portions of our area under a marginal risk for
exceeding flash flood guidance each day from wednesday night
through friday morning. looks like the more widespread coverage
of the marginal flood risk would be on thursday when the front
is draped across the cwa. there is currently no expected severe
weather threat at this time per spc which makes sense with the
lack of energy/cold pool and slow movement of the boundary.

the other big change to the longer term forecast looks to be a
longer duration of the cyclonic flow and more of a zonal flow
aloft by the end of the weekend. this would keep us more on the
cooler and drier side providing continued seasonable conditions
with periods of showers, mainly in the afternoon possible. but
still need to watch into next week as a building ridge over the
southeast may push northward and that would make for hotter and
more humid conditions for the cwa. at this time though the
longer range guidance does keep us north of the more
humid/hotter airmass. so a bit more uncertainty seems to have
made it`s way into the forecast this period.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1257 pm edt tue aug 4 2026

high pressure over indiana will provide tranquil conditions
during the taf period, including wind less than 10 knots.
increasing clouds late in the period, but remaining vfr, as a
cold front slowly approaches from the west. lingering dry air
looks to preclude any -shra mention at this time. cannot
completely rule out patchy ground fog near daybreak wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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681
fxus63 kdtx 041851
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
251 pm edt tue aug 4 2026

.key messages...

- dry with seasonable temperatures this evening.

- showers and thunderstorms move into the tri cities wednesday,
expanding across the rest of se michigan wednesday night.

- an unsettled pattern continues thursday into the weekend with
periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.discussion...

healthy coverage of diurnal cumulus this afternoon wanes in coverage
through the evening as temperatures remain seasonable in the low
80s. dry conditions persist overnight as the mid-level ridge axis
slides east in favor of broad longwave troughing that lingers
through the weekend. this brings a transition to a wetter pattern
for the back half of the work week and possibly into the weekend.

the 12z kdtx raob sampled a very dry airmass with pwat of 0.75",
which will take a good deal of moisture advection to overcome before
precipitation can reach the ground. this process begins over the
saginaw valley late wednesday morning, starting with an increase in
high cloud followed by increasing pops through the afternoon. the
rain shield stays anchored to a slow-moving cold front that
eventually shears out to further limit its eastward progress
through most of the day wednesday. meaningful progression of the
rain shield into the detroit metro region thus holds off until late
wednesday night as one of several upcoming shortwaves ripples
through the great lakes. sharp delineation in rain chances/cloud
cover sets up a sharp thermal gradient across the cwa, with upper
70s highs near midland to upper 80s in the urban detroit footprint.

more widespread rain chances emerge thursday-friday as return flow
maintains a steady feed of low level theta-e into lower michigan.
this moisture will be repeatedly engaged during the period by
a train of low amplitude perturbations. ensemble qpf members through
the end of the week generally fall around a half inch or less,
although a handful of 1+ inch totals are in the solution space
around the tri cities. a main limiting factor to higher end totals
is the lack of strong convective component to this event, although
there is still some uncertainty here that will depend on boundary
layer conditions. presence of the trough elevates mid level lapse
rates toward 6 c/km through the end of the week, but otherwise the
influx of mid level dry air and modest boundary layer conditions
struggle to generate more than ~1000 j/kg mlcape at best. this is
with highs right around 80 degrees thursday and slightly warmer
friday. swody3 (thursday) places se michigan in a general thunder
risk, while the slightly warmer/higher dewpoint environment could
boost instability for friday.

unsettled pattern continues into the weekend with a strong ridge
over the four corners region and an equally strong low over over
hudson bay. main shift this weekend though will be change in
steering flow to the northwest, accelerated by confluence over the
central conus between these two systems. while details are still
fuzzy on coverage/timing, precipitation chances linger saturday-
sunday.

&&

.marine...

high pressure influence lingers across the central great lakes today
as the center of the surface ridge slides across appalachia into the
northeast. southwesterly winds are still expected to rise through
the afternoon hours given the return flow configuration and gradient
enhancement as low pressure moves from northern ontario into hudson
bay. an attendant cold front approaches from the west and briefly
stalls out over lake huron wednesday. this provides the first
opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms this week. several
disturbances are then expected to ripple over the boundary,
preserving rain/storm chances through thursday. the front should
resume forward progress on friday with additional chances for
convection for the southern waterways. winds are expected to remain
below headline criteria through the rest of the week. drier weather
may briefly return for parts of friday and/or saturday, but the
front will stall out again in the vicinity, keeping low chances for
thunder through the weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 136 pm edt tue aug 4 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions prevail under high pressure. few-sct cu between 4kft -
6kft persists for the next several hours before waning due to dry
air entrainment and reduction in daytime heating. light winds and
vfr conditions continue overnight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......kgk
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.