Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
361
fxus61 kcle 131717
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
117 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

.what has changed...
some additional shower activity has formed early this morning
with fog and low stratus quickly filling in behind these
showers. the storms threats this afternoon and again during the
middle of the week remain unchanged.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front
this afternoon. there is potential for strong to severe storms
with gusty to damaging winds as the main threat.

2) warm and humid weather returns for the middle of the week,
bringing additional shower and storm chances starting on tuesday
night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
some showers have developed over the southeastern portion of the
forecast area early this morning with a piece of mid-level
energy moving through the upper ohio river valley, tapping into
a moist environment. these showers should exit over the next
couple of hours. immediately behind these showers, conditions
are clearing and allowing for a mix of fog and low stratus to
form across the area. this should only continue to build
overnight and become more locally dense with time. there will
likely need to be at least a special weather statement for the
visibility at some point this morning, but a dense fog advisory
cannot be ruled out.

after some recovery during the late morning hours, the main
concern of the day will be additional showers and storms
developing ahead of a cold front. by early afternoon,
temperatures should be in the 80s with dew points in the upper
60s/lower 70s. this will present enough of a warm, moist air
mass to support storm development with modest mlcape values.
with the storms and cold front, there will be support with the
right entrance region of an upper level jet and 0-6 km bulk
shear values will be around 40 kts, which will allow for some
organization of storm activity. the main concerns with storms
would be gusty to damaging wind gusts, although some hail could
be possible with the strongest storms. the limiting factor for
storms within the forecast area will be real estate. the front
will be moving from northwest to southeast and convective
initiation will be over the local area. by the time storms
become strong enough to merit any wind or hail hazards, they may
be south of i-90 and east of i-71 with very little of the
forecast area left to work with.

key message 2...
the middle of the week forecast continues to be unsettled as a
pseudo-cold front will approach the region from the northwest
as the upper ridge over/south of the area will break down a bit.
this front will generate a round of showers and storms on
tuesday night, as some mid- and upper-level energy will be
allowed into the lower great lakes region. the frontal boundary
will stall out over the area and the local area will be between
a trough to the north and a ridge to the south. with warm and
humid conditions over the region supplied by the ridge to the
south, expect scattered shower and storm chances through at
least thursday with an unsettled pattern in place. one note of
early concern is that there will be the west-east oriented
surface boundary over the region with zonal west-east flow aloft
that could favor repeated rounds of storms over the same areas,
which could pose heavy rain and flooding concerns, depending on
how things end up later this week.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
a scattered cu field has begun to develop along and east of i71,
resulting in patchy areas of mvfr bkn ceilings, but the bulk of
terminals remain vfr this afternoon. vfr is expected to persist
today outside of any showers and thunderstorms that develop
which may briefly reduce conditions to mvfr visibilities due to
have rain. this line of convection is beginning to develop along
a lake breeze this afternoon, but is expected to become more
widespread as the cold front pushes east this afternoon. best
timing for convection will be between 20-00z this evening, but
a few storms are possible sooner. primary concern with storms
that develop are locally gusty winds and heavy rain, although
some hail cannot be ruled out. once the showers push east, vfr
conditions will return and persist through the end of the
period.

west to northwest winds of 5-10 knots will increase over the
next couple hours to be up to 12 knots at most terminals. gusts
up to 20 knots are possible at western and lakeshore terminals
into the early overnight hours before winds gain a more
northerly component by monday morning and weaken to 5-10 knots
again.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms tuesday
into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will approach the lake today. ahead of the front,
offshore flow will remain through the afternoon hours. the front
will cross the lake by evening with a quick shift to strong
northwest flow of 15 to 20 kts with cold advective flow. this
will allow for waves to build to 3 to 6 ft across the nearshore
and small craft advisories and beach hazards statements have
been issued for tonight into monday morning.

high pressure will build over the lake for monday and winds will
decrease as flow shifts to the east then south. a warm front
will lift across the lake by tuesday and stronger southerly flow
will move over the lake. a front will approach the lake on
tuesday night and wash out south of the lake for the middle of
the week. with the frontal passage, there should be onshore flow
again for wednesday and thursday. however, the flow should be
weaker than tonight`s cold front since the incoming air mass
isn`t very different.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 6 pm edt this evening through
late tonight for ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement from 6 pm edt this evening through
monday morning for ohz009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from 6 pm edt this evening through
monday morning for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 am edt monday
for lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am edt
monday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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107
fxus63 kiwx 131742
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
142 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers likely mainly in northwest indiana and far southwest
lower michigan late this afternoon into the evening.

- there is a high swim risk forecast through late tonight for southeast
lake mi beaches. dangerous swimming conditions continue.

- cooler monday with highs in the 70s with comfortable humidity
levels and sun.

- turning hot and humid tuesday and wednesday. rain and storms possible
tuesday afternoon through wednesday with 30-70% chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 141 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

despite the nbm having no pops today, the href is in good agreement
that widely scattered showers will occur in northwest indiana and
southwest lower michigan from 20z-00z tonight as an upper level
trough and attendant 500mb shortwave that passes through the great
lakes. rainfall amounts should be light, less than 0.10" for most
locations. surface observations show that the surface cold front
associated with this upper level system already passed through the
area this morning. incoming high pressure behind the front means the
pressure gradient will increase over the area this afternoon and
evening, with wind gusts up to 20-25 mph sunday afternoon and
evening. strong northwest flow and caa behind the front will make
for a pleasant night tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
a very fall-like day is ahead monday with highs only in the low to
mid 70s, comfortable humidity, and some filtered sunshine as high
pressure will be directly overhead.

if you have plans to head to se lake michigan beaches today, stay
out of the water! there is a high swim risk and a beach hazards
statement is in effect until 03z monday. behind the cold frontal
passage this morning, dangerous swimming conditions have developed
and are expected to persist through tonight for southeastern lake
michigan beaches in berrien and la porte counties. buoy observations
offshore of washington park beach and silver beach show waves of 3-4
ft as of early afternoon. moderate to strong rip and structural
currents are expected. hazardous swimming conditions may occur again
on tuesday.

an upper level ridge will build across the central and eastern conus
over the next several days. with waa and southwesterly moisture
transport from the gulf, heat and humidity will build on tuesday
underneath the peak of the upper level ridge over the great lakes.
our far southwest will be the warmest with temperatures in the low
90s for highs tuesday and peak heat indices approaching heat
advisory criteria at around 97-98 degrees. confidence is low
for peak heat indices due to chances for rain/storms (see below)
and clouds, so will hold off on any heat headlines for now.

another cold front approaches late tuesday and wednesday with zonal
flow aloft as the ridge gets suppressed. have maintained likely
pops of 40-70% tuesday afternoon through wednesday. there is a
marginal risk for severe weather on tuesday; isolated damaging
wind gusts will be possible due to up to 2000 j/kg of sbcape and
steepening low level lapse rates. with forcing expected to be
weak, this could be a limiting factor for strong to severe
storms. there are still some uncertainties with this system in
regards to exact timing and placement of the cold front.
rain/storm chances midweek will be highly dependent on where the
periphery of the ridge ends up (which model guidance has
routinely struggled with this same setup in recent months). the
boundary will likely stall somewhere across the great lakes or
ohio river valley as the upper level ridge shifts eastward, so
have maintained broad pops midweek of 30-50%.

given that the overall synoptic pattern this fall will be influenced
by a strong to potentially historic el nino, guidance is slowly
trending towards near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures
with drier than normal conditions for mid to late september.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 130 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

a secondary shortwave swings through the great lakes late this
afternoon but low level moisture is very limited and better
forcing for ascent passes to the north. a few showers possible
at ksbn (even lower chance at kfwa) but conditions will likely
remain vfr. gusty northwest winds relax overnight and mainly
clear skies are expected through the second half of the period.
fog appears unlikely given degree of dry air advection.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 10 pm cdt this evening for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 131702
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
102 pm edt sun sep 13 2026

.key messages...

- potential for a few showers to develop this afternoon.

- a cooler air mass settles over the area tonight through monday
night. tonight will feature to coolest night, with overnight lows
falling into the 40s.

- unsettled weather returns tuesday and lingers into late week.
tuesday will feature a warmer more humid day helping to set the
stage for thundestorms chances as a slow moving front arrives.

&&

.aviation...

features that affect the forecast over the next 24 hours are rather
distinct. early this afternoon we start with sct cumulus and some
bkn cirrus with wnw winds around 10 knots. then will be affect by
moisture squeezing across lower mi as upper wave moves across the
great lakes with a surface trof during the 19z to 02z window. clouds
thicken and lower with ceilings from 7k to 10k feet. could see some
sprinkles or light showers with this feature and enough dry air in
the lowest layers to keep it virga for the most part. will included
tempo showers for mbs and fnt with no visibility restriction where
the best and deepest moisture will exist. with this feature, expect
those wnw winds to increase to around 15 kts and gusts approaching
25 kts.

after all of that passes southeast mi between 22z and 02z, winds
turn to the north and decrease to around 5 kts, and skies clear
quickly. the light north wind and clear skies continue into monday
morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast today or tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 431 am edt sun sep 13 2026

discussion...

a cold front continues to drop south across the area early this
morning. this will help gradually diminish the warmer/muggy air mass
across the region, with breezy west to northwest winds ushering in
lower dewpoints this afternoon. as the front moves through it is not
out of the question that a few spotty showers develop. however,
better lift and upper-level forcing arrives later this afternoon
when the main upper-level wave tracks through the region. maintained
chance pops for this afternoon and evening as an area of
frontogenesis between roughly 800-700 mb sharpens upon the arrival
of the upper level wave and increasing dcva. not expecting any
significant rainfall with any shower activity that develops this
afternoon.

tonight through monday night, high pressure takes over across the
region and upper-level ridging builds back into the region. this
pattern will bring a taste of fall to the region. as a much drier
air mass moves overhead tonight, the combination of clearing skies
and light winds will allow temperatures to drop well into the 40s.
given the crisp, cool night expected, we will likely see some patchy
fog develop in/around lakes and rivers. highs on monday are likely
to top out around 70 with light winds and mostly clear skies. cloud
cover increases monday night as high pressure departs to our east
and the leading edge of warm air advection begins to move in from
the west ahead of the next system expected to impact the region.

this system, while the strong surface low is progged to remain well
north of the region, will bring impacts starting on tuesday as
strong warm air and moisture advection return to the region. highs
are forecast to climb back up into the 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s/near 70. this round of muggy conditions will be brief as a
slow moving cold front drops south across the area late tuesday.
flow along this frontal boundary becomes increasingly unidirectional
and zonal, which will slow the southward progression of the front
through mid to late week. the question remains where the front is
when it stalls out. is it over southeast michigan or south of the
state line. models are also trying to bring another shortwave in
from the west, which would bring another focus for showers and
thunderstorms late next week. there are plenty of details that will
be refined as we get closer, but tuesday through late next week
currently feature numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms,
including the potential for training precipitation.

marine...

a backdoor cold front is currently dropping south across the area
this morning, resulting in a brief uptick in north-northeast winds
to around 15-20 knots. this uptick in the winds is expected to be
shortlived this morning. however, as the day progresses cooler air
works into the region from the northwest, favoring an uptick in west
to northwest winds. west winds increase to 25-30 knots this
afternoon, gradually becoming northwest through the evening. across
the northern-third of lake huron, probabilistic data do not show
much of a signal for gales this afternoon and into tonight. thus,
have kept forecast winds capped at around 30 knots. small craft
advisories have been issued for all nearshore waters later this
afternoon through tonight for a combination of wind gusts in excess
of 25 knots and/or 3+ foot waves.

high pressure quickly builds into the region monday, allowing
northwest winds to relax in/around daybreak. attention then turns to
a robust surface low progged to track across the canadian prairies
monday into tuesday, and eventually reaching the hudson bay region
by tuesday night/wednesday. surface wind fields respond to both the
pressure falls north of the region and the increasing surface
pressure gradient arriving late monday through tuesday. will need to
keep a close eye on the forecast for monday night through tuesday as
south to southwest gales are looking more likely. there remains some
disagreement amongst the guidance regarding what the high-end
potential of wind speeds look like. however, blended ensemble
guidance show a strong signal for 35-40 kt gales peaking tuesday
morning over the open water of lake huron. these strong south winds
will also usher back in better fuel for thunderstorm activity and
heavy rain.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through monday morning for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 2 am edt monday for lhz422.

small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 11 am edt monday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 2 am edt monday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 am edt monday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....rbp
discussion...ja
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.