Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
884
fxus61 kcle 210804
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
404 am edt sun jun 21 2026

.what has changed...
storm total rainfall amounts continue to trend down across portions
of central ohio. the risk of excessive rainfall has been lowered
to marginal (1 out of 5).

&&

.key messages...

1) a soaking rain with scattered thunderstorms is expected tonight
into monday. rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.25 inches are expected
with locally higher amounts possible.

2) temperatures will be slightly below normal through friday then
trend warmer over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

key message 1...

high pressure over the local area this morning will shift east into
new england tonight. meanwhile surface low pressure ahead of a fast
moving shortwave trough will approach from the west overnight. there
will be considerable dry air to overcome in the low and mid-levels
with isentropic ascent increasing from west to east this evening.
precipitation trends over the last 48 hours are favoring the
heaviest rain of an inch or more across northern portions of the
forecast area. robust convection is expected to develop this
afternoon in the warm sector across illinois and indiana, with storm
motion to the southeast heading into tonight. this is expected to
result in lower precipitation amounts across central ohio than
previously thought over the last couple days. forecast amounts in
the southern counties look closer to a half to three quarters of an
inch now as some of the moisture transport into the region is cut-
off.

elevated convection remains possible late sunday night into monday
morning and we will monitor rainfall rates in this moist
environment. the overall concern for heavy rainfall and flooding with
this system has trended down though. the rain looks most
persistent across the north late sunday night before a mid-level
dry slot arrives on monday morning. despite the drying aloft,
scattered to numerous showers are expected to fill back in on
monday afternoon as the cold front wraps in from the northwest.
cape of 500-700 j/kg is expected in our southeastern counties so
thunderstorm activity may increase along the front during the
afternoon.

in addition to the rain, gusty northeast winds will be focused
downwind of lake erie on the western and central basin. gust near
the lakeshore will be 30-35 mph at times. temperatures will be
impacted by the cooler and damp conditions with highs only reaching
the low 70s on monday.

key message 2...

the overall longwave pattern shows a quasi-zonal flow with troughs
moving southeast through the great lakes region through friday. this
pattern will keep temperatures on the cool side of normal for most
of the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
thursday afternoon and evening. models all depict the ridge
starting to amplify aloft for next weekend with temperatures
trending warmer.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
vfr will prevail through the taf cycle as high pressure over the
region this morning gradually departs east to allow low pressure
to move out of the mid mississippi valley tonight. mostly clear
skies with pockets of cirrus early this morning will give way to
a mid-level broken to overcast cloud deck gradually
overspreading the area this afternoon and evening. rain will
eventually arrive from west to east in the isentropic ascent
ahead of the warm front out ahead of the low tonight, but slowed
down the onset of rain to the 00-05z timeframe given a lot of
dry air to overcome.

light w to nw winds this morning will turn n to nw at 5-10 knots
this afternoon then e at 5-10 knots tonight.

outlook...non-vfr likely monday with rain showers. non-vfr
possible again in rain showers wednesday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
light n to nw winds are expected early this morning increasing
to 5-10 knots this afternoon as high pressure gradually slides
into the eastern great lakes to allow low pressure to approach
from the mid mississippi valley tonight. winds will turn e this
evening ahead of the warm front extending east from this low,
and the e winds are expected to become quite strong in the 15-25
knots range late tonight and early monday, especially in the
western and central basins. this will build wave heights to 3-5
feet. as the low passes across northern ohio monday, winds will
quickly turn ne behind the trailing cold front, staying in the
15-20 knot range. small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements will be needed late tonight and monday for at least
the western and central basins for winds, waves, and rip
currents. light winds are expected tuesday through wednesday as
high pressure builds down across the great lakes before turning
s to sw ahead of the next low and associated cold front thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from late tonight through monday
afternoon for ohz003-007-009.
beach hazards statement from monday morning through monday
afternoon for ohz010>012.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am to 5 pm edt monday for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory from 8 am to 5 pm edt monday for
lez145>147.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
739
fxus63 kiwx 210654
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
254 am edt sun jun 21 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain is expected this evening and overnight. most
locations will see around an inch with pockets of two inches
or more possible.

- the severe risk is low but a few strong storms can`t be ruled
out south of highway 24.

- high waves and dangerous currents are expected on lake
michigan beaches monday.

- the rest of the week will feature slightly below normal
temperatures and periodic chances for light rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 254 am edt sun jun 21 2026

convectively modified shortwave(s) currently moving through the
central plains will continue eastward today and impact our area this
evening/overnight. some right entrance upper jet dynamics and
ejecting mcv will support modest surface cyclogenesis with a 40+ kt
llj nosing into our southern cwa. unfortunately, the exact details
remain murky even less than 24 hours out due to complications from
multiple upstream mcs`s. cluster of convection currently over ks/ne
is expected to eject eastward through the morning (fueled by steady
llj/moisture convergence) and capitalize on some modest
destabilization south of i-70 this afternoon. this cluster of
convection will sweep across indiana during the evening hours but
the exact track remains uncertain as does the exact location of the
all-important surface frontal boundary. bulk of guidance keeps this
surface boundary and associated severe risk just south of our cwa.
however, still some members suggesting it will sneak into our far
southern counties. still think the severe risk is low. while
shear/helicity values are supportive of a severe risk, midlevel
lapse rates are very poor and surface dewpoints are only around 60f
(even south of the front). even the northward-displaced models (3km
nam) still show awfully stable profiles in the lowest 3-5 kft that
will be difficult to support any damaging wind/tornado risk. our far
south (south of us-24) still bears some watching this evening but a
lot of factors would have to come together to yield a severe risk
and the chances of that appear low at this point. we will continue
to monitor upstream convection closely through the morning though.

the other aspect to this event will be the potential for some
moderate-heavy rain. here again, important mesoscale details remain
unresolved. my suspicion is that a progressive mcs just to our south
will rob better moisture from our cwa, as suggested by some of the
latest cam`s, keeping rainfall amounts generally around an inch or
perhaps even less. however, some elevated deformation/fgen oriented
parallel to the mean flow could set up the potential for some
training moderate rain even in our northern zones. also, the better
moisture/instability and mcs track could still sneak into far s/se
zones. deep warm cloud layers and pw values near 2" certainly bear
watching and could support isolated pockets of heavy rain/minor
flooding but uncertainty in convective evolution and overall modest
ingredients continue to preclude a flood watch here. most of our
area missed out on heavy rain wed night and we should be able to
handle a widespread 1", even with pockets of around 2".

sct, light rain showers likely persist through most of the day
monday as a secondary shortwave moves through the region and
northerly flow will likely keep highs in the low 70s. shortwave
ridging/subsidence yields one dry/pleasant day on tue but another
trough brings more light rain chances late wed into thu and again
late fri into sat (perhaps some heavier rain with that one). highs
remain in the upper 70s/near 80 until finally a strong ridge
develops next weekend and pushes highs back to near 90 to end the
month.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 105 am edt sun jun 21 2026

very dry profiles in the low levels will maintain vfr
conditions through most of the day today. a shortwave will move
into the region this evening and good low level moisture
advection will yield mvfr ceilings, widespread rain, and a few
embedded thunderstorms. the best chances for thunder will be at
kfwa closer to the warm front. ifr ceilings also likely at kfwa
beginning around 06z monday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
307
fxus63 kdtx 210752
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
352 am edt sun jun 21 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with increasing clouds today.

- showers and thunderstorms increase coverage tonight, especially
south of i-69 where rainfall totals range from 0.5 to 1 inch. the
best chance of locally higher amounts is toward the ohio border.

- showers linger monday morning then dry weather follows in the
afternoon and evening.

- cooler than normal temperatures continue through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

early morning satellite and surface analysis indicate patchy fog and
stratus leading up to sunrise, especially toward the tri cities and
thumb where wet ground augments surface based moisture. the fog
component continues to expand through sunrise and then quickly
dissipates. otherwise, the day starts with full sun as broad but
weak high pressure builds from the midwest into lower mi to govern
conditions through today. clouds are on the increase this afternoon
in a combination of high based cumulus and thickening cirrus off the
central plains mcs debris shield. the slightly below normal
temperature theme of recent days continues today as abbreviated
afternoon peak heating leaves highs in the mid 70s.

the inbound cirrus cloud shield this afternoon is a prelude to
increasing coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms across
southern lower mi this evening which continue through the night and
monday morning. this pattern is driven by the central plains low
pressure/mcs combo in progress as the short wave and mesoscale
features migrate into the mid ms and oh valleys tonight. pronounced
mid/upper level circulation noted over sd/ne in wv satellite imagery
early this morning adds confidence to the moisture transport scenario
expected to be the primary driver of showers/elevated storms across
southern lower mi tonight. backed 850-700 mb flow ahead of this short
wave carries moisture and elevated instability into lower mi to fuel
the expanding area of showers/general storms. consensus of
deterministic model qpf holds totals below 1 inch which is now
reflected in the latest nbm run. attention is also given to href pmm
qpf keeping higher end totals around 1.5 inches in play, which is
plausible given the potential for strong mesoscale interactions
between the north flank of the mcv, the short wave, and upper jet
entrance region during the peak of the event around 06z tonight. the
stronger forcing gives showers a chance to reach farther north toward
the tri cities and northern thumb while the bulk of greater rainfall
still occurs south of i-69.

the scenario transitions to a shearing deformation pattern which
keeps showers focused over southern lower mi through monday morning.
this additional rainfall is accounted for in the system total but
produces generally less than an additional 0.25 inch until ending by
early afternoon as the deformation axis moves eastward. the rest of
monday and monday night end up with dry weather as a short wave
ridging moves from the midwest into the great lakes along with
accompanying surface high pressure. the mid/upper level long wave
flow remains low amplitude and progressive through mid week with the
next low pressure system currently projected for wednesday.

&&

.marine...

a diffuse area of high pressure will hold across the great lakes
through today, supporting a continuation of lighter winds. a compact
low pressure system will then move through the ohio valley and
southern great lakes tonight into monday morning. rain showers are
expected to be most concentrated across lake erie up to lake st.
clair. elevated northeasterly winds will increase and persist
through the daylight hours monday. the longer onshore fetch on lake
erie will support higher waves by daybreak monday. a small craft
advisory is in effect there for late tonight and monday.

&&

.hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms expand over southern lower mi tonight as
an unseasonably strong low pressure system moves from the central
plains through the mid mississippi river valley late sunday and into
the ohio river valley sunday night. widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity develops along the northern periphery of the
low pressure system and may bring locally heavy rainfall to southern
portions of se michigan. while uncertainty exists on the exact
placement, the potential exists for a large area of rainfall amounts
ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch generally south of the i-69 corridor.
there is also a chance for localized totals around 1.5 inches from
about the i-94 corridor to the ohio border. trends will be monitored
for signs of any northward shift on the track of the low pressure
system that would produce a chance for a corresponding northward
shift to higher rainfall totals and the potential for urban
flooding. otherwise, the above mentioned totals limit flooding
potential to ponding of water on roads and similar prone areas until
the rain moves out by monday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 126 am edt sun jun 21 2026

aviation...

general nocturnal stability overnight will maintain mostly clear
skies. potential exists for a period of fog prior to daybreak,
mainly across fnt and mbs. observational trends suggest fog could
become more dense at mbs owing to the recent rainfall, leading
lifr/ifr visibility restrictions. dry and stable conditions will
maintain benign conditions for the daylight period sunday. standard
higher based diurnal cu to emerge with daytime heating. low pressure
system tracking through the ohio valley will bring thickening mid
cloud and increasing rain chances around 00z, with a steady decline
in cloud base likely thereafter heading into the overnight period
sunday.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms expected through sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft sunday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 4 am to 5 pm edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......am
hydrology....bt
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.