Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
234
fxus61 kcle 110659
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
259 am edt fri sep 11 2026

.what has changed...
some fog will be expected across the area this morning as clouds
clear out of the region. there is a bit more confidence in rain
chances on sunday with a cold front entering the region.

&&

.key messages...
1) a pair of fronts moving through the region on saturday and
sunday will bring scattered showers and storms. there is some
limited potential for a stronger storm on saturday afternoon and
evening.

2) warm weather is expected on tuesday and wednesday with
additional shower and storm chances possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will lift north across the area tonight and allow
for warm and humid conditions to return for the weekend. for
saturday, a mid-level shortwave will move through the ohio
valley and allow for shower and thunderstorm development. with a
conditionally unstable air mass, it is possible for a storm to
become stronger with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain during
the peak heating hours on saturday afternoon and evening. for
sunday, there is growing consensus on a cold front approaching
and slowly moving south across the forecast area. this front
should provide lift to generate at least some convective
activity on sunday. however, the air mass should be less
suitable after saturday`s activity and shower/storm coverage
should be lower.

key message 2...
the forecast for tuesday and wednesday is trending more
unsettled as the forecast area will be in the middle ground of a
ridge to the south and a trough moving through canada. the ridge
should help keep the area dry on monday with high pressure
moving through the region. however, the ridge will back off a
bit for tuesday and wednesday, allowing for some of the energy
of the upper trough to enter the great lakes, coincident with a
cold front moving through the region. the air mass ahead of this
system will be warm and humid and again conditionally unstable
to allow for scattered shower and storm activity next week. will
need to watch this portion of the forecast for trends as it
approaches closer.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
light rain showers and mid level clouds will continue to push to
the east early this morning. clear and calm conditions are still
expected across terminals into daybreak this morning. have lines
in southern and eastern taf sites for patchy fog, generally 3-5
sm. vfr conditions are expected after any mist/fog dissipates
in the morning. light and variable winds tonight will shift
east- northeast during the daytime today, but winds will remain
10 knots or less.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms on
saturday, especially during the afternoon and early evening.
non-vfr possible again in scattered showers and storms on
tuesday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the great lakes region will support north to
northeast flow over the lake today. as the system moves east,
winds over the lake will shift to the east then southeast
tonight as a warm front crosses the lake. offshore flow will
continue through saturday with the lake in the warm sector of a
low pressure system. a cold front will approach and cross the
lake on saturday night into sunday, allowing for onshore flow to
return to the basin. winds could be briefly strong enough to
merit some elevated waves and moderate swimming risk. the front
will settle south of the lake on sunday and elevated northerly
flow will persist across the basin through sunday night keeping
waves in the 2 to 4 ft range. the front will lift back north
across the lake on monday and offshore flow will return to the
basin on monday night. this flow could be stronger on tuesday
depending on the track of a low pressure system and cold front
through the region. at a minimum, there appears to be some
brief windows for moderate swimming risks on the lake through
the forecast period. depending on the strength and timing of the
cold front on sunday and the system on tuesday, there could be
windows for a small craft advisory.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
507
fxus63 kiwx 110607
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
207 am edt fri sep 11 2026

.key messages...

- dry today with less humidity. highs around 80 degrees.

- next chances for rain/storms will be friday night into
saturday, with the highest chances of 30-40% south of us 24.
highs in the low to mid 80s.

- mostly sunday and monday, with a 20-25 percent chance for
showers and thunderstorms sunday night into monday morning.
highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

surface high pressure building across the midwest and eventually
into the great lakes later tonight will yield mainly dry conditions
through friday. the cold front that was supposed to come through
yesterday slowed quite a bit from what was originally anticipated
and stalled just to our northwest this morning; as that front now
makes its way through our forecast area today, an area of showers is
passing through north-central indiana as seen on current radar.
while i can`t rule out an isolated storm, a tight moisture gradient
in the low levels and sbcape of 1000 j/kg or less should keep
widespread chances at bay. highs in the upper 70s are expected
today. it will be noticeably less humid with dewpoints only in
the 50s once the front passes through and northwest flow ensues
on the backside, ushering in much drier air tonight.

much like last night, patchy dense fog is possible given clear skies
and light winds. should radiation fog occur, visibilities should not
be as low as they were this morning given a lack of saturation at
the surface. i would expect that areas south of us 24 would be most
primed for fog to develop today given the showers currently moving
through. friday will be a fantastic day with high pressure overhead
providing low humidity, highs near 80 degrees, and lots of sunshine!

our next chances for rain and storms arrive starting before daybreak
saturday and continuing, especially south of us 24 once again,
throughout the day saturday. far northwest indiana and southwest
lower michigan may stay entirely dry given that the better dynamics
for this rain/storm potential will be to our southeast. a warm front
will lift northward saturday, and with a developing upper level
trough over the great lakes, scattered showers and storms appear
increasingly likely for our southeast half. there is some
uncertainty on how far north and west the rain will get, with our
highest pops of about 40-60% south of us 24 on saturday. the ecmwf
has the trough at 500mb slightly more amplified and further east by
saturday afternoon than the gfs and nam do so that will make a
difference too as to where and when the highest pops occur. severe
weather is not expected at this time on saturday.

zonal flow continues aloft as yet another upper level ridge
builds across the central conus, so have maintained warmer than
normal temperatures and low chances (20%) for pops through
sunday and monday. since it is still several days out, there is
still a lot of uncertainty in how the overall synoptic pattern
evolves early next week. some models have a frontal system
coming through the midwest and upper great lakes tuesday while
others keep the upper level ridge dominant over the area. there
are no clear signs of fall in any of the long range guidance as
our forecast area looks to remain sandwiched between hot and
humid air to our south and cooler, drier air to our north for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 136 am edt fri sep 11 2026

vfr conditions expected at both terminals outside of late
night/early am br potential (mvfr). kept previous forecast of
3sm for kfwa, and added a tempo at ksbn for 4sm given
visibilities nearby of 1-4sm this evening (has been variable,
likely shallow br). most of the guidance has 4-6sm for both
sites, and i don`t expect the br/fg be as prevalent or long
lasting as yesterday given dwindling moisture. still, mostly
clear skies and light winds are favorable conditions for br/fg
development.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
231
fxus63 kdtx 110651
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
251 am edt fri sep 11 2026

.key messages...

- a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm on saturday,
otherwise a quiet weekend, accompanied by slightly above-normal
temperatures.

- showers expected to return by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

latest water vapor shows dry mid levels over southeast michigan,
which is also confirmed by the 00z dtx raob, which indicated a 700
mb dew pt depression of 20 c with a pw value of 0.59 inches. this
dry air mass will hold today, although patchy ground fog looks to be
around to start the day. return flow around the departing high
pressure will increase this evening and tonight. a shortwave over
missouri will shear off to the northeast today and mainly track
through the eastern great lakes saturday morning. still, sufficient
moisture tracking into eastern half of the cwa, along with enough
destabilization (slightly negative li`s and mlcape of 750+ j/kg),
will support the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms
(see 00z hrrr/rrfs). a secondary moisture axis out ahead of a cold
front will also track in from the western great lakes late in the
day, passing through during the evening or washing out altogether.
the bulk of the shower activity is expected to reside over lake
huron however.

with cooler cyclonic flow on sunday, its still not out of the
question for isolated light showers before a mid level dry slot
becomes fully established over southern michigan. 850 mb temps
dropping into the mid single numbers sunday night will bring
potential for mins in the 40s as high pressure builds over the
region. the wild card is whether low clouds develop with the light
onshore flow off the warm waters of lake huron.

a strong storm system will track through the northern plains on
monday and into northwest ontario monday night. the active warm
front is expected to reside over western great lakes. warm air will
eject out of the southern plains, with the 00z euro indicating 850
mb temps warming to 20 c; setting up tuesday as sneaky warm day
ahead of cold front. timing of fropa and extent of cloud cover and
showers is uncertain, but high temperatures in the 80s seems
reasonable. mid level frontogenesis hanging around tuesday night
into wednesday will offer up a continued good chance of rain.

&&

.marine...

high pressure in place through tonight maintaining benign marine
conditions. active pattern returns late saturday-sunday as low
pressure lifting through northern ontario drags a cold front across
the area in the morning. overnight/early day arrival and detachment
from the parent low greatly limit any shower/storm chances. moderate
trailing northwest flow develops over northern lake huron daytime
sunday with peak gusts between 25-30kts. this front looks to stall
somewhere near southern lake huron offering an isolated shower
chance into monday. a more dynamic system then lifts out of the
plains and over the northern great lakes monday night-tuesday.
preceding warm, humid airmass will fuel better scattered storm
chances.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1154 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

aviation...

high pressure centered over the region will continue to influence
conditions through friday. favorable environment will exist for
shallow fog formation, with greater potential again from ptk
northward into fnt/mbs. forecast will continue to highlight a window
for ifr visibility restrictions at these locations, while the
probability for lifr in dense fog will exist. much lower confidence
in occurrance across the detroit corridor precludes a mention here
at this stage. outside of fog chances, vfr conditions to then
continue into friday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms will occur through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kdk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.