Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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115
fxus61 kcle 220923
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
423 am est sun feb 22 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in advisory level snow accumulations has increased
for much of the winter storm watch area so have upgraded the
winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory and expanded the
headlines into lorain, northern ashtabula, and crawford (pa)
counties. confidence in warning level snowfall/impacts is still
too low to warrant an upgrade for erie county, pa. there are
also concerns for potential advisory snowfall amounts a tier of
counties west of the winter weather advisory in ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread light snow expected today, but accumulations will
be minimal and relatively low-impact. heavier lake enhanced
snow tonight through monday will bring more impactful snow
accumulations to the snowbelt region.

2) multiple systems tuesday night through thursday will bring
periodic rain and snow showers to the area with warmer weather
returning by late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
widespread light snow showers are expected across the area
today as an upper level low moves east across the great lakes.
generally expect snowfall totals of up to an inch, but there
will likely be a swath of 2 inches or more between i-75 and i-71
prior to 00z/7 pm. overall, impacts should be minor through
early this evening but will need to keep an eye on the area of
slightly higher snow accumulations for minor impacts.

the main trough axis associated with the upper low will shift
east of the area tonight, but continued upper troughing combined
with strong cold air advection and wraparound moisture
associated with a developing nor`easter off the mid-atlantic
coastline will result in the development of lake-enhanced snow
across northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania tonight
through monday. event total snowfall between tonight and monday
night (48 hours) will largely range between 2 and 5 inches
across the snowbelt region of ne oh and nw pa, although locally
higher amounts as high as 7 to 10 inches are possible across
southern erie county, pa. the long duration of snowfall should
mitigate impacts, but still expect minor to locally moderate
travel impacts. most of the winter storm watch has been
upgraded to a winter weather advisory, but the winter storm
watch remains in effect for erie county, pa since there`s
greater potential for warning amounts/impacts. it`s important to
note that the highest snowfall totals will occur where the
heaviest snow bands persist, which will likely be related to
moisture connections to the upstream great lakes. the winter
weather advisory also includes lorain county, northern ashtabula
county, and southern crawford county (pa). the heaviest snowfall
rates and greatest impacts will likely occur late tonight
through early monday afternoon and the monday morning commute
may be impacted.

there`s some potential for snowfall to over-perform to the west
of the advisory including erie (oh), huron, richland, and
ashland counties. this area may experience more upstream lake
enhancement than anticipated and snowfall totals may approach
advisory amounts. will also need to keep an eye on potential for
over-performance in locations downstream from the areas of
lower ice coverage on lake erie including lorain, medina,
cuyahoga, and geauga counties. guidance typically underestimates
qpf when the lake is mostly ice covered but has appreciable
areas of lower ice coverage.

key message 2...
lake enhanced snow will diminish late monday night into tuesday.
a series of systems will clip the local area tuesday evening
through thursday, resulting in periodic rain/snow showers for
the middle of the week. there will likely be another round of
accumulating lake-enhanced snowfall as the first clipper moves
across the area tuesday night into early wednesday with minor
impacts possible across portions of ne oh/nw pa. there`s quite a
bit of uncertainty in the track of the second system and
resulting precip type wednesday night into thursday. the gfs and
ecmwf favor a more northern storm track which would support
more snowfall and possibly a wintry, whereas deterministic
canadian guidance suggests a drier forecast for the area. will
need to monitor this system and adjust the forecast/communicate
possible impacts as confidence increases. dry and warmer weather
will return on friday with above normal temperatures expected
late week into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
mvfr ceilings continue across terminals with some isolated areas
of ifr visibilites as light snow showers push eastward across
the region. mvfr conditions due to both reductions in ceilings
and visibilities will continue through the taf period. expect
for windows where visibilities are further reduced to ifr in
heavier pockets of snow showers, primarily across western taf
sites. anticipate for areawide ifr ceilings to develop late in
the taf period this evening.

generally west to northwest winds 5-10 knots continue through
this morning. northwest winds increase to 10-12 knots sunday
afternoon.

outlook...periodic snow with non-vfr expected through tuesday
night. non-vfr likely on wednesday in snow changing to rain/snow
with a clipper system. non-vfr may return again on thursday as
another system moves through the region.

&&

.marine...
a trough remains over the eastern great lakes. meanwhile, a
strong low pressure system will move up the east coast tonight
into monday, strengthening the trough over the region. winds on
the lake will be westerly to start today before becoming
northwest and increasing eventually to 20 to 25 kts by monday.
this stronger northwest flow will compress ice along the lake
erie shoreline over the next couple of days.

a high pressure ridge building into the region monday night into
tuesday will allow for winds to decrease to around 10 kts and
back to the southwest. a low pressure system will move through
the great lakes region tuesday night into wednesday and
southwest winds will increase over the lake. another low
pressure system will move through the ohio valley on thursday
and bring elevated northeast winds.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 1 am est
tuesday for ohz010>014-020-021-089.
pa...winter storm watch from this evening through tuesday morning
for paz001-002.
winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for paz003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 220856
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
356 am est sun feb 22 2026

.key messages...

- a combination of system snow and lake enhanced snowfall will
bring some light snow accumulations through the rest of today,
with greatest accumulations of 1 to 3 inches downwind of lake
michigan.

- a period of more organization of lake effect snow bands is
expected tonight into early monday morning. this period
represents the greatest potential for the higher snowfall
rates and impacts to travel with total snowfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches with locally higher amounts for areas near lake
michigan. some drifting and blowing of snow will be possible.
a winter weather advisory is in effect through early monday
afternoon for cass mi, berrien mi, laporte in, and st. joseph
in counties.

- additional rain and snow chances for wednesday and thursday
but confidence in exact details such as chances and precip
types remain low.

- temperatures trend warmer late work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 245 am est sun feb 22 2026

upper level trough isn now in place over the southern great
lakes and bringing light snowfall across a majority of the area
as seen on this mornings current 08z radar imagery. some lake
enhancement is noted with a band of slightly heavier
precipitation in a west to east line from about michigan city in
la porte county in through to topeka in lagrange county in.
expectations of around 1 to 3 inches of snowfall with the system
component. winds will begin to transition to a more northerly
direction through today into monday morning as the trough
slides eastward out of the area. this will lead to the
transition to the more lake effect component of this event with
still some uncertainty in the exact amount of organization
within the mesobands and whether it remains more multiband in
nature or does develop into one organized band that would create
heavier more localized snow amounts. still looking at perhaps a
more combination of outcomes with the more northerly flow in
place early monday morning leading to a concentrated band which
could easily lead to 1 to 2 inch per hour accumulations.

with wind gusts increasing through the day today there will also
be the potential for patches of blowing and drifting of recently
snowfall creating additional hazards for travel. storm totals
expected are 1 to 3 inches in areas further away from the lake
michigan and 3 to 5 inches for locations closer to the lake with
some locally heavier amounts possible. winter weather advisory
for parts of our northeastern cwa continues through 1 pm est
monday. low temperatures for monday morning will dip into the
lower 20s to upper teens. les showers will begin to diminish by
monday evening as northerly winds slacken. highs on monday only
will get to the upper 20s to low 30s across the area. lows
tuesday morning much colder ranging from the low teens to upper
teens. the colder airmass will be temporary as shortwave
ridging pushes into the region on tuesday and will allow for a
rebound in temperatures for tuesday and wednesday with highs in
the mid 30s to low 40s.

some increase in the uncertainty to the forecast with guidance
bringing in a couple of disturbances on wednesday into thursday.
the thursday system looks a bit more robust as it pushes west
across the conus from the pacific northwest into the great lakes
region. a wintry mix of precipitation looks probable on
wednesday evening into thursday. the exact evolution will need
to be watched as potential travel hazards will be possible with
the prospect of mixed precip.

zonal flow returns at the end of the week allowing for a warming
trend for friday and saturday. highs on saturday will range in
low 40s to low 50s and slightly warmer on saturday with highs in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1248 am est sun feb 22 2026

mvfr to ifr conditions are expected at the taf sites, with winds
lingering out of the wnw through the period. ceilings should
generally remain between 1500-2500ft, but there is potential
(particularly at kfwa) for a quick drop to around 700 ft over
the next few hours. confidence wasn`t high enough to include at
this point, but will amend if the conditions materialize.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est /noon cst/ monday for
inz103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est monday for miz078-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 220827
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
327 am est sun feb 22 2026

.key messages...

- intervals of light snow today and tonight, with additional
accumulation between a half inch and 2 inches most areas. localized
amounts in excess of 2 inches are possible.

- brisk on monday with temps below freezing and morning wind chill
in the single digits, only rising to the teens in the afternoon.

- widespread accumulating snow late tuesday into tuesday night, with
several inches possible for parts of se mi.

&&

.discussion...

a broader, loosely organized region of lower mid level heights will
continue to govern conditions thru the latter half of the weekend.
bouts of more organized upward vertical motion tied to a combination
of periodic cva and smaller scale convergence engaging a steep low
level lapse rate environment will contribute to periodic light snow
or snow shower development thru this time. a more focused region of
ascent anchored along an eastward propagating vort max evident
tracking across southern lower mi early this morning. corresponding
increase in coverage of light accumulating snow particularly
along/south of m-59 with this feature. supportive background
environment going forward today throughout the area as intervals of
super saturation with respect to ice within a weakly unstable
profile contribute to generally light intensity snow production,
with the main uncertainty being duration of meaningful activity at
any one location. there remains a signal for a brief increase in
forcing this evening as the upper low/trough currently fixated over
northern lake huron shears back southward. given the underlying
profile, this would offer an opportunity for pockets of higher
intensity snow showers to materialize within any enhanced regions of
convergence. more efficient accumulation in spots this morning
across metro detroit where a more fluffy character of snow exists.
efficiency may prove more lackluster on paved surfaces as daytime
heating works to lift temperatures to/just above freezing into the
afternoon, while snowfall rate remains manageable. greater accum
potential again post-sunset as temperatures settle back below
freezing and snowfall rate briefly increases. as low level flow
veers to north-northeast with time tonight, expectation for at least
modest moisture flux to occur off the remaining open water over lake
huron, affording an additive component of lake effect for the
northern thumb region through monday morning. outgoing forecast will
continue to highlight 24 hour accumulation ranging from half an inch
/mainly saginaw valley/ to an inch or two elsewhere. there remains
potential for a smaller footprint to exceed 2 inches, with the
highest probability between portions of northern metro detroit to
flint to the thumb region.

deep layer northerly flow entrenched to start the work week. notable
period of cold air advection overnight into monday will drag
temperatures back below average for late february, with daylight
readings mainly in the 20s. some areas of light snow showers and
flurries likely throughout the daylight period as adequate depth to
the moisture remains with the cloud layer fixated within the dgz.
any additional accumulation would remain minor. coldest conditions
noted monday night. actual low temperature and accompanying wind
chill minimum carries dependence on degree of clearing, but any open
sky certainly encourages a dip in temperatures to the single digits
for some areas by tuesday morning. this would translate into a
minimum wind chill in the vicinity of zero degrees.

clipper system forecast to lift across the great lakes late tuesday
into tuesday night. unsettled model solution space evident in
differences in system trajectory and placement/quality of moisture
relative to both the system warm frontal passage late tuesday and
with the parent low arrival overnight. this will dictate both
accumulation potential and timing across this time horizon. outgoing
forecast currently outlining a broader 1 to 3 inches range for
possible accumulation /highest north/, but worth noting a subset of
solutions offer a much sharper gradient in qpf along the southern
edge acknowledging the variability yet noted with this smaller scale
system. influx of hi res solutions in the coming periods will offer
more clarity. benign conditions wednesday, before another
progressive system provides the next opportunity for snow thursday.

&&

.marine...

cyclonic flow persists across the great lakes region with surface
low pressure continuing to weaken over lake huron. lingering
convergence axis to the north and arrival of a mid level disturbance
to the south has allowed broad coverage of snow showers to develop.
snow showers driven in part by the lake aggregate will persist
through the evening until the surface low fully phases with a much
stronger coastal atlantic low. this process establishes an expansive
pressure gradient that extends into western portions of the great
lakes, leading to sustained northerly flow around 25 to 30 knots.
combination of ice cover and disorganized low level wind field
generally cap frequent gusts below gale force. potential does exist
for nearshore zones to reach advisory thresholds however, as gusts
reach 30 knots and wave heights exceed 5 feet in ice-free waters.
high pressure then briefly builds in tuesday to relax the gradient
before the next clipper arrives mid-week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1210 am est sun feb 22 2026

aviation...

snow has spread north into the region this evening and has pushed up
through flint. widespread 3-4sm vsbys with brief obs down to around
1 1/2sm at times so far. look for a window of higher intensity snow
this morning around 13-16z and another band pushing south this
evening bringing a chance of briefly higher snowfall rates.
otherwise light snow should persist through much of the day and into
tonight before tapering off. all in all still looking for around 1-2
inches of accumulation through the period with locally higher
amounts to 3 inches possible. winds will be westerly, turning
northwesterly this morning and should remain northwesterly through
the forecast while beginning to increase later sunday night.

for dtw...snow has begun and will persist through the day before
tapering off tonight. mainly mvfr vsbys with pockets/bands of ifr
likely through the day. tried to tempo in a couple opportunities of
higher confidence of higher intensity snowfall this morning and
again later this afternoon. snowfall total around 2 inches possible.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet through tonight.

* high for ptype of snow today and tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......mv
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.