Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
082
fxus61 kcle 031158
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
758 am edt sun may 3 2026

.what has changed...
slightly lowered dew points for this afternoon. otherwise, no
significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
monday afternoon and evening along a surface trough. a few
storms could become strong to severe.

2) widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
across the region tuesday into wednesday. some nuisance and/or
minor river flooding is possible.

3) a chilly air mass will return across the region towards the
end of the week with another round of frost conditions possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a weak mid-level shortwave will move northeast across the ohio
valley ahead of a stronger upper-level trough near the upper
great lakes on monday. a narrow corridor of higher dew points in
the 50s and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 c/km will
accompany this feature, potentially yielding mlcape values in
excess of 1000 j/kg by monday afternoon and evening. the latest
spc swody2 marginal risk encompassing portions of north-central
and northwest ohio appears reasonable at this time given modest
westerly bulk shear of around 30 to 35 knots. the main hazards
with any stronger storms that form would be isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail.

key message 2...

a secondary area of low pressure will develop along a slow-
moving cold front as it approaches the lower great lakes region
on tuesday. widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected with the front, especially late tuesday into wednesday,
with high probabilities for much of the area to receive at
least one inch of rainfall. although not particularly impressive
amounts, the recent wet pattern coupled with a widespread rain
could lead to some nuisance road and/or minor river flooding
and will be something to watch in future forecast iterations.

key message 3...

another anomalously-cold air mass will enter the region towards
the end of the week, with 850 mb temperatures falling to around
0c. though not as cold as the current air mass over the region,
there does exist some potential for another round of frost
conditions, especially thursday night into early friday morning.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
skies are starting off mostly clear this morning with high
pressure located over the ohio valley. the high shifts south
today which will allow winds to increase with gust of 20-28
knots developing after 15z. wind gusts will drop off towards 00z
for inland locations in eastern ohio and possibly closer to 06z
in other nw ohio locations. if wind gusts drop off then low
level wind sheer is likely as speeds increase to 40-45 knots
near 2k feet overnight.

otherwise some cumulus cloud around 5-7k feet is expected this
afternoon with coverage of vfr clouds increasing after 22z.
a shortwave will pass overhead tonight with a few light showers passing
near or over lake erie tonight. included vicinity shower at eri
where confidence was highest but but otherwise expecting
coverage to be too low for many impacts.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms monday afternoon/night followed by increasing
coverage of precipitation tuesday afternoon and night and
again on thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the ohio valley will shift south today as a
trough crosses the upper great lakes this afternoon and evening.
winds will increase ahead of the trough, with speeds of 15-25 knots,
peaking on the western basin this evening with 20-30 knots as a low
level jet passes overhead. a small craft advisory has been issued
for areas west of avon from noon-4 am. higher waves of 4 to 7 feet
will be focused over the open waters given the offshore flow.
the eastern nearshore water are expected to remain just below
small craft criteria but will need to be monitored.

a warm front lifts north of lake erie for monday and the stable
marine layer should limit winds to 10-20 knots during the day but
may exceed 20 knots monday night. may need to monitor for another
window of small craft conditions. winds make an abrupt shift to the
north behind a cold front on tuesday but timing is somewhat
uncertain. conditions improve wednesday as high pressure builds over
the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz003-006>009-
011-012-017-018-027-036-089.
freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for ohz010-013-014-
019>023-028>033-037-038-047.
pa...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for paz001.
freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory from noon today to 4 am edt monday for
lez142>145.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
140
fxus63 kiwx 031228
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
828 am edt sun may 3 2026

.key messages...

- brief warmup and turning breezy today into monday.

- there is a chance (30-40%) for scattered showers this
afternoon.

- chances for scattered showers and storms (40-60%) increase
mid afternoon monday into monday night. a few storms could
become strong to severe (wind/hail).

- turing cooler with periods of rain tuesday into tuesday night.

- cool midweek through next weekend with occasional chances for
rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 am edt sun may 3 2026

increasing southwesterly flow, with gusts 25-35 mph by this
afternoon, will bring temperatures more typical for early may
with highs generally reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s. there
also remains a ~3 hour window for scattered rain showers this
afternoon as a weak impulse and plume of mid-level moisture
progress through in wnw flow aloft. continued to hold pops in
the 30-40% range given the relatively weak forcing and dry low
levels. dry with clear skies then into tonight and monday
morning in wake of this wave, with wind gusts quickly
diminishing this evening as the atmosphere decouples.

ongoing warm/moist advection in southwesterly flow, preceding an
upper level trough digging south into the upper midwest, should
boost monday afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 70s, and sbcape
up to 1000 j/kg. a weak warm frontal feature lifting into the area
in tandem with a lead perturbation approaching from the mid ms
valley may be enough to generate scattered convection (40-60%)
mid afternoon on monday into monday evening. spc continues to
have the area highlighted in the marginal risk (level 1 out of
5) for this activity given modest shear/buoyancy profiles, with
lacking boundary layer moisture and nebulous forcing limiting a
more organized severe threat.

attention later monday night through tuesday night turns to a trend
back to cooler temps and periods of rain/embedded thunder as a slow
moving baroclinic zone sags southeast through the local area. this
could be soaking rain (1" plus) for some given the slow movement
with motions parallel to the frontal boundary, potentially leading
to river rises and localized ponding issues.

blocky pattern with broad longwave troughing in place will keep
temperatures on the cool side midweek through next weekend. as
for precipitation chances, the main frontal zone and corridor of
deeper moisture likely settles well off the southeast by
wednesday and beyond, though periodic rain shower chances will
linger through much of the period as several shortwaves rotate
through in cool cyclonic flow.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 527 am edt sun may 3 2026

vfr conditions will persist through the taf period, with the
main item of interest being increasingly breezy southwest winds
developing today. gusts 25 knots plus are anticipated by this
afternoon. a brief 2-3 hour window for light scattered showers
expected this afternoon otherwise as a weak mid level impulse
tracks through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
406
fxus63 kdtx 031000
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
600 am edt sun may 3 2026

.key messages...

- windy and warmer today.

- mild and breezy monday. a chance of thunderstorms late monday and
monday night.

- showers expected tuesday. much colder temperatures tuesday through
the end of the week.

&&

.aviation...

main forecast consideration for the taf sites today is focused on
gust potential as southeast michigan resides within a dynamic warm
sector. southwesterly surface flow increases through the morning
hours and diurnal heating should help generate a mixed layer. gusts
in excess of 30 knots are possible by this afternoon and through
part of the evening hours. clouds partially fill in aloft owing to
the remnants of inbound showers, but elevated bases preserve vfr
conditions. ample low-level dry air should limit elevated showers to
just virga at most locations today, with mbs being the one possible
exception. clearing reemerges early tonight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt sun may 3 2026

discussion...

a broad warm air advection pattern will expand across lower mi later
this morning into tonight, enhanced by strengthening low to mid
level southwest flow. the result will be increasing mid and high
level clouds. a more notable mid level theta e ridge will expand
into se mi late this afternoon and persist into tonight. this
moisture will be accompanied by fairly steep 700-500mb lapse rates
of 7.5 to 8 c/km. despite this, model soundings suggest the warm
700mb temps contributing to these lapse rates will form a weak cap
on potential elevated convection. this and dry air below 800mb will
limit shower chances to less than 30 percent late this afternoon
through tonight. a 925mb wind max of 35 to 40 knots will move across
srn mi early this morning. daytime boundary layer growth into this
wind field will result in gusty winds today, with 30 to 35 knots in
the mixed layer supportive of 30 to 40 mph wind gusts during peak
daytime heating. wind gusts may get close to advisory criteria
(gusts to 45 mph) across the saginaw valley and thumb were model
soundings indicate 40-45knots across the top of the mixed layer. the
southwest winds will drive 925mb temps up toward +11c this
afternoon, which combined with the mixing will push afternoon highs
well into the 60s.

a slow moving cold front will be driven across the upper
midwest/western great monday in advance of a broad long wave trough
expanding into the northern plains/nrn minnesota. sustained
southwest flow ahead of this front will support persistent warm air
advection into se mi monday, pushing daytime highs into the 70s.
while still breezy, low level wind fields and mixing depths are
forecast to be a little lower in comparison to today, likely capping
peak wind gusts around 30 mph.

modest boundary layer destabilization across the ohio valley monday
is forecast to advect into the southern portions of the forecast
area toward evening, mainly along/south of the i-94 corridor. mid
level capping and limited forcing suggests low convective chances.
while boundary layer moisture may be limited, any deep convection
that is able to initiate will be capable of localized strong wind
gusts and hail in light of the steep mid level lapse rates and dry
air in the mid levels. mid level height falls will expand across the
northern great lakes mon night as the long wave trough builds
eastward. this will force the sfc cold front into se mi. weak
elevated instability and deep layer moisture is forecast to advect
into se mi monday night along/ahead of the cold front. this will
provide a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. while the
better convective potential looks to precede the stronger shear
profiles, steep mid level lapse rates may still support isolated
strong storms into the night.

a more organized deep layer frontogenetical forcing along the cold
front is forecast by tuesday across se mi resulting from amplification
of the long wave trough, increased baroclinicity and corresponding
upper jet dyanmics. latest probabilistic guidance places the
highest rain chances generally east of a bad axe to howell line
tuesday. given the quasi stationary nature of the front, there is at
least a low chance for some persistent rain to push total rainfall
amounts up to or over an inch. shallow post frontal cold air will
bring temps back down below seasonal averages by midweek, with
daytime highs likely in the 50s and nighttime lows in the 30s through
the end of the work week.

marine...

a warm front will pass through today which will sustain southwest
with with increasing wind speeds through the morning and afternoon
hours. locally stronger winds will be found within the saginaw bay
through central lake huron given the favorable fetch. localized gusts
around 30 knots will be possible through the bay, with other
nearshore locations seeing gust potential on the order of 20 to 25
knots. small craft advisories remain in effect.

wind speeds diminish late tonight into tomorrow morning, but return
with similar intensity during daylight hours which will likely
result in another round of small craft advisories. isolated to
scattered showers will be possible today and tomorrow along with a
very low chance for a rumble of thunder.

hydrology...

showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the
region monday night and persist into the day tuesday along a slow
moving cold front. latest model guidance and probabilistic guidance
suggests high probabilities for total rainfall between a quarter inch
and three quarters inch. there is low to moderate confidence that
rainfall totals will reach an inch generally across metro
detroit/ann arbor and points south, with low confidence totals will
exceed an inch and a half. while initially convective, the rain is
forecast to transition toward a more steady light to moderate rain
on tuesday. this will keep hourly rainfall rates generally light.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening for
lhz441>443.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...sc
marine.......am
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.