Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
721 pm est sat feb 14 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes with this update when compared to the
previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) above-normal temperatures are expected to persist through
friday, february 20th. the snowpack across the region will melt
during this time period. rises on area rivers may increase the
potential for localized ice jams to develop.

2.) periods of rain are expected, especially this wednesday
through friday.

3.) colder weather with rain mixing with or changing to wet
snow expected this friday night into saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
aloft, primarily zonal (i.e. w`erly) flow should persist over
the eastern two-thirds of the northern tier of the united
states, including northern oh and nw pa, through friday,
february 20th. this should allow unusually-warm air temperatures
to impact our region. at the surface, our region should
primarily reside in the warm sector based on the latest projected
mid-latitude cyclone track across the conus and vicinity. afternoon
highs should reach the 40`s on sunday, the lower 40`s to lower 50`s
on monday, mid 40`s to mid 50`s tuesday, and mainly the lower 50`s
to lower 60`s wednesday and thursday, respectively. on friday,
daytime highs should reach the lower 40`s to lower 50`s, before a
cold front sweeps e`ward through our region. overnight low
temperatures should be about 10f to 15f cooler than daytime highs
sunday morning through thursday morning.

remaining snow cover across the region is expected to melt as
temperatures soar to well above normal values. dew points in the
30`s this weekend should be followed by dew points reaching or
surpassing 40f at times this monday through friday. the melting
snow will contribute to some run-off and generally minor rises
on area streams, creeks, and rivers. ice jams may develop. we
will continue to monitor this hydrological situation closely.

key message 2...
primarily dry weather is expected through this tuesday as high
pressure ridging and associated stabilizing subsidence impact
our region. however, after midnight tonight through about late
afternoon on sunday, periods of light rain, associated with
moist isentropic ascent preceding a shortwave trough axis aloft,
should move generally e`ward across our cwa. greater potential
for rain exists roughly along and especially south of u.s. route
30. additional periods of rain are forecast overnight tuesday
night through friday due, in part to the following reasons:
moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes aloft;
low-level convergence and moist ascent along the aforementioned
cold front.

key message 3...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft should impact our region
friday night through saturday as a longwave trough axis moves
from near the western great lakes to near the gulf of maine. at
the surface, associated troughing should linger over the eastern
great lakes, upper oh valley, and vicinity, including our cwa.
moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes embedded
in the cyclonic flow aloft should allow periods of precip to
impact our region. rain should mix with or change to wet snow
friday night into saturday via caa at the surface and aloft, and
the wet-bulb effect. lows should be near 25f to 30f around
daybreak saturday and be followed by afternoon highs in the
30`s.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
low pressure entering the tennessee and ohio valleys tonight
into sunday will allow for clouds to billow in from the
southwest and spread over the terminals. clouds will begin as
high level cirrus before falling into mvfr then ifr through the
late morning hours on sunday. some rain may try to enter the
southern terminals, including kmfd and kcak, which may hold off
the low ceilings for a bit until the afternoon hours. low
ceilings will persist through the rest of sunday with
improvement slow during the evening. winds will be southerly to
start and shift to the southwest with the passage of the low to
the south.

outlook...non-vfr continuing through monday morning. non-vfr
possible in rain wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered. light and variable winds
through monday night as high pressure moves through the region.
southwesterly winds tuesday morning 10-15kts become southeasterly
tuesday night 15-25kts, then back southwesterly 15-25kts wednesday
into wednesday night with the passage of a frontal system. mild
pattern ahead will translate to some thawing of the ice covered lake
this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sefcovic
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 pm est sat feb 14 2026

.key messages...

- 20-60% chances for rain between 12-7 am est sunday, mainly
along and south of us 24.

- steadily increasing temperatures ahead; several days in the
50s area-wide this week.

- wednesday will be the warmest day with widespread highs in the
60s! locations south of us 24 could approach 70 degrees.

- an active weather pattern returns with additional chances for
rain and gusty winds for the later half of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 pm est sat feb 14 2026

clouds can be seen on satellite imagery this afternoon advecting
into our area ahead of chances for rain overnight. areas to the
north of us 30 will stay dry but the southern half of the forecast
area is expected to get in on some light rain. models have waffled
back and forth over the past few runs (especially hi-res guidance)
on how far north precipitation will get. it appears as through the
best chances for rain will be in grant, blackford, jay, van wert,
and allen (oh) counties, as this is where most forecast soundings
show decent lift and moisture developing after midnight. a tight
gradient between moist and dry air will be present in our far
south, but can`t rule out light rain making it as far north as
fort wayne tonight. there will be a lot of mid level dry air to
overcome so the best chances for rain are expected to be along
and south of us 24 between 06-12z sunday morning. wherever an
axis of low level convergence sets up could aid in lift and
allow for localized amounts of rain up to 0.25" (especially
grant, blackford, jay counties). for now, have stuck with a
50/50 blend of nbm and wpc guidance, which keeps qpf between
0.05"-0.10" total tonight into early saturday.

warmer weather is on the way! a strong upper level ridge will build
across the central and eastern conus into early next week.
confidence continues to increase for well above normal temperatures.
highs climb into the mid 50s on monday and tuesday. the warmest day
will be wednesday as the ridge will be centered right over our area.
ensembles have the highest temperature anomalies on wednesday and
are in good agreement for highs that are 20 to 30 degrees above
normal. strong waa and a warm front lifting north will boost high
temperatures into the 60s area-wide on wednesday. locations south of
us 24 may even make a run at 70 degrees! this afternoon`s nbm run
came in with a forecast high of 67 at fort wayne on wednesday (which
is around the 75th percentile forecast), which would tie the record
high for february 18th set in 2017.

a more active pattern looks to resume with gusty winds, rain, and
maybe even some embedded thunder developing along and north of the
aforementioned warm front. above normal temperatures continue
through at least late next week with additional chances for rain
with a system passing north on thursday/friday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 620 pm est sat feb 14 2026

rain associated with southern stream upper low will pass just
south of kfwa sun am. however, increasing low level moisture
coupled with diurnal cooling and light surface winds will likely
support some fog/br and stratus development. confidence is not
high given degree of low level dry air currently in place but
most guidance showing at least mvfr conditions by 12z with ifr
certainly possible. best chances for impacts will be at kfwa.
return to vfr expected by sun afternoon as nw flow advects drier
air back into the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
629 pm est sat feb 14 2026

.key messages...

- chance for some freezing fog development tonight into sunday
morning.

- above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

- next chance of precipitation comes tuesday night through wednesday
and currently looks like an all rain event.

&&

.aviation...

a light east/southeast component to low level flow off the cold lake
waters will maintain potential for some degree fog formation during
the early-mid morning hours. highest likelihood remains at mbs, with
visibility restrictions already noted across the saginaw valley and
in the vicinity of saginaw valley. forecast will highlight a window
of dense fog for this corridor. fnt carries greater potential as
well, while ptk and detroit corridor offer much lower confidence
noting a signal with hi res guidance for greater saturation to
remain north. some influence off lake erie remains plausible and
will continue to highlight a period of ifr/mvfr for this corridor
late tonight. light wind emerges from the southwest sunday, slowly
mixing out any existing fog and very low stratus by midday. vfr then
prevails with some pockets of mid level cloud into sunday afternoon
and evening as a weak cold front lifts across the region.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into sunday
morning.

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight and sunday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 pm est sat feb 14 2026

discussion...

mid february warm up well underway with a second 40 degree day in a
row for many locations. dtw already hit 46 this afternoon with 40s
as far north as phn (41) and ozw (43) by 2pm. north of m59, which is
roughly where a stalled surface boundary is washing out, slight
northerly component to the wind is holding temps down in the low to
mid 30s. dewpoints are also on the rise due to warm air advection
and snow melt releasing moisture into the boundary layer. we saw a
short period of dense fog up around mbs this morning and indications
are for another round of fog developing tonight with similar
conditions again tonight. previous forecast included period of
possible freezing fog as temps drop into the mid-upper 20s tonight.
see no reason to deviate from this forecast and will handle any
denser areas of fog as it develops.

warm air will stick around through the middle of the work week as
the polar jet remains displaced well to the north and a flattened
ridge over the plains keeps a zonal feed of mild air into the great
lakes. steady wave train through the northern stream of the jet over
canada will be the force keeping the ridge flattened over the plains
early in the week. it will also result in a dry front or two
dropping through the area as southern extensions of the trough pass
over. this will mainly help keep temps from steadily climbing
through the early week but will also bring some periods of high
cloud at times. 850mb temps will be steady in the 2 to 4c range
sunday through tuesday so expecting highs around 45 to 50f through
this period.

next chance of precipitation still looks to arrive tuesday night as
warm advection and isentropic ascent along a developing warm front
moves into lower mi. the parent surface low and better forcing is
well to the west over the dakotas tuesday night so initially just
dealing with light precip most likely. left exit region of the
southern stream jet max and leading area of deformation then moves
in around 12z wednesday with some hints of a secondary low
developing ahead of the parent low and lifting through the region
during the day leading to steadier and more widespread
precipitation. isentropic bands like this can result in mix precip
events this time of year due to colder air locked in at the surface
under the frontal slope, but a trend the last few runs has been
farther north with the front and thus warmer air in se mi. temps
tuesday night are now mainly all above freezing with highs wednesday
in the upper 50s to low 60s near the ohio border. this scenario
would lead to an all rain event locally, with mixed precip pushed
north of the cwa. there will be additional chances for precipitation
including some wintry weather thursday night into friday night as a
another strong wave and surface low moves through the region.

marine...

a weak pressure pattern persists through sunday with light and
variable wind this afternoon organizing out of the south/southeast
by sunday morning as a weak trough moves into the region. a second
slightly stronger trough arrives on monday with south wind
increasing to around 10 to 15 kt. a ridge of high pressure maintains
benign conditions through tuesday before an active pattern sets up
for the middle and late week. a frontal boundary will stall in the
vicinity of the great lakes with multiple low pressure systems
bringing rain, snow, wintry mix, and potential for gusty winds from
wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...drk
marine.......tf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.