Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
621
fxus61 kcle 241734
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
134 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with the morning update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through
friday. some of the storms could be strong thursday afternoon.

2) seasonably cool temperatures through saturday followed by a
major change to building heat and humidity sunday through tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry weather will continue today as the large canadian high settles
into the ohio valley before departing across the mid atlantic region
tonight. this will support plenty of sunshine again and continued
below normal temperatures as broad mid/upper troughing persists
across the northern tier of the conus.

attention tonight will turn to the next system as a low amplitude
shortwave progresses through the broad longwave trough and moves
from the upper midwest tonight into the central great lakes by
thursday morning. the left exit of a 90-100 knot h3 jet streak will
support a modest surface low tracking across northern lower michigan
and lake huron thursday, and this will pull a fairly strong cold
front across the region.

southerly return flow and resultant warm air advection behind the
departing surface high and ahead of the approaching low will lead to
some rain showers entering the region late tonight, especially where
isentropic ascent can be maximized ahead of the lifting warm front.
the latest cams are in some disagreement on how widespread this
activity will be, but trends have been toward a stronger nocturnal
low-level jet averaging 20-30 knots in response to the approaching
upper jet streak mentioned above, and this will advect in enough
elevated instability for thunder and will also boost the moisture
advection to expand the coverage of rain near the warm frontal
boundary. consensus points toward the greatest coverage being near
the lakeshore counties, so expanded likely and categorical pops in
that area late tonight into thursday morning. some locally heavy
downpours could occur with any embedded convection, but this is
expected to be low-impact rain.

considerable uncertainty still exists with how convection will
evolve ahead of the cold front thursday afternoon. guidance is
starting to converge on an afternoon and early evening frontal
passage, which is diurnally favorable for stronger storms. however,
the morning showers and associated cloud cover lingering from the
remnants of the overnight activity will dictate how much instability
is able to build. the clouds and showers will probably linger over
much of ne ohio and nw pa through at least late morning, and that
will disrupt surface heating of what is already not a very warm and
moist airmass by summer standards. if enough heating can occur,
mlcape should reach around 1000 j/kg, and this combined with deep
layer effective shear likely over 40 knots will support organized
updrafts and a few strong to severe storms. the latest swody2 places
a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) in the southeastern cwa, and this is
reasonable. the 90-100 knot upper jet streak rotating overhead and
45-50 knots of mid-level flow make things potentially interesting if
enough instability can be reached. the 00z href is starting to pick
up on convection ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening,
especially along and east of the i-71 corridor, so we will continue
to monitor and would not be surprised to see this marginal risk
expanded farther northwest into more of our cwa.

brief drying is expected thursday night as the cold front settles
toward the ohio valley, but another mid/upper shortwave rotating
through the base of the broad trough will support a surface low
tracking along the front as it becomes quasi-stationary over central
and southern ohio friday and friday night. the nam seems to have
convective feedback issues the past few runs and blows up an
unrealistically strong surface low, but plenty of mid/upper jet
support will exist for widespread showers along the boundary friday
and friday night. the best instability will be south of the region,
so the bulk of the convection will stay to our south, but stratiform
rain showers are likely to reach into our cwa at times friday into
friday night, especially south of a findlay to warren line. this
will elevate cloud cover as well.

key message 2...
if you have enjoyed the cool weather of late, enjoy it while it
lasts because a prolonged period of heat and humidity is likely next
week. the mid/upper longwave trough that has dominated the northern
tier will remain in place through the end of the week and then start
to retreat into new england this weekend as a subtropical ridge
amplifies over the central conus in response to a deep mid/upper
trough digging west of the rockies. near to below normal
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 will continue today
through saturday (slightly cooler friday behind the front), but that
will be replaced by building heat and humidity sunday through
tuesday as the central conus ridge further strengthens and drifts
into the mid mississippi and tennessee valleys. highs in the upper
80s sunday will reach the low 90s monday and tuesday, and with dew
points rising into the 70s, heat indices will likely near or exceed
100 f early next week. early season heat is always more dangerous,
and everyone will have to re-aclimate after the recent cool weather.
ensemble guidance suggests that this ridge and associated heat could
persist all of next week, so heat headlines are possible if the
pattern continues to evolve in this manner.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with primarily vfr to
persist through the taf period. rain showers will be moving east
into the area this evening and overnight. the heaviest rain may
impact tol with brief ifr vsby drops and have introduced a tempo
group. otherwise, rain showers should remain light, resulting in
mainly vfr vsbys. thunder chances also remain low and thus, have
not included tsra or vcts at this time, though they may need to
be introduced in the next taf package, particularly at sites
east of the i-77 corridor.

winds are generally light and favoring a west to southwest
direction this afternoon, around 5 knots. a lake breeze has
developed and is slowly moving south this afternoon, impacting
cle/eri with north to northwest flow of 7 to 10 knots. winds
will shift towards the south, then southwest tonight into
thursday, 7 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening, particularly east
of the i-77 corridor where a few stronger wind gusts are
possible. non- vfr possible again in showers and thunderstorms
friday afternoon and evening, mainly south of the i-90 corridor.

&&

.marine...
lake breezes with onshore flow of 5-10 knots are expected today with
high pressure and light winds over the region. southerly winds will
increase overnight becoming southwesterly at 10-20 knots on thursday
ahead of low pressure moving through the central great lakes.
showers with scattered thunderstorms are possible on the lake
wednesday night through thursday and could lead to erratic wind/wave
conditions. otherwise winds will shift to the north/northeast behind
a cold front on friday and remain out of the east/northeast through
the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
632
fxus63 kiwx 241724
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
124 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

.key messages...

- increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon (30-60% chance). drying out after midnight early
thursday.

- additional chances (30-70%) for showers and embedded storms
late thursday night into friday, best chances south of us-24.

- becoming hot and humid next week with highs in the 90s as
early as monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 211 am edt wed jun 24 2026

high pressure gradually gives way to modest low pressure, currently
swirling over far northern minnesota. as a result, look for
increasing clouds followed by a 30-60% chance for showers and at
least isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon. showers and storms
will continue to drift southeast through at least 2am edt thursday.
instability is a limiting factor to storm development this
afternoon, clocking in around 500 j/kg. paired with 30-35 knots of 0-
6km shear, cannot completely rule out a strong storm, yet lapse
rates of only 6c/km could be a limiting factor too.

the low`s associated cold front hangs up south of us 24 thursday
morning, threatening to serve as a focus for renewed showers.
however, any beneficial moisture resides south of the forecast area
resulting in only isolated afternoon showers (20% chance) as a 50-
knot 500mb jet rotates through. almost similar to what we
experienced over the weekend, a compact low moves through central
indiana thursday night and friday brining a period of steady
rain to at least southern portions of our forecast area.

beyond that, it looks like we`re going to pay for what has been a
pleasant (cool) mid-june period. starting sunday, a strong ridge
develops over the eastern us sending our high temperatures to the
90s by monday. there are some daily uncertainties as passing
thunderstorm complexes can dampen any high temperature forecast, but
overall, the heat is on. there is some indication this 594-597dm
ridge may persist into the 4th of july weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 119 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

despite showers moving into the area this afternoon and
evening, vfr conditions will generally prevail except perhaps in
any heavier downpours. instability and lapse rates are lacking
for sustained convection and thunderstorms, but cams do show
some increased activity near sbn this evening. wind will remain less
than 10 knots through thursday morning, then shift westerly
thursday afternoon and increase to around 12 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
324
fxus63 kdtx 241052
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 am edt wed jun 24 2026

.key messages...

- showers move in this afternoon with some scattered redevelopment
overnight; thunder potential is low during the day, and slightly
higher tonight.

- thunderstorms are possible thursday afternoon, with a low-end
chance for isolated damaging wind gusts.

- turning drier on friday, although locations near the ohio border
could get clipped by a couple showers.

- warming temperatures arrive this weekend, followed by much warmer
and more humid conditions through at least the first half of next
week with periods of storms.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure maintains control of conditions for the bulk of the
morning while a low pressure system continues organizing over mn/wi.
this system propels increasing coverage of showers with a chance of
thunderstorms into lower mi during the afternoon and evening.
thickening high clouds precede the showers/storms during the morning
until reaching the lower range of vfr in and around the warm front
advancing eastward from the midwest. it is still too early to
include thunderstorms in the terminal forecasts as timing and
coverage carry low predictability, however a mid to late afternoon
time window for a chance of heavier showers could be a marker for
storms in later updates.

it takes until late afternoon/early evening for showers and a chance
of storms to reach the dtw corridor. activity then percolates with
random coverage during the night as the low pressure center moves
slowly into northern lower mi. the warm sector of the system carries
mvfr ceiling into the region tonight into thursday morning.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance of thunderstorms as
showers increase coverage from the northwest tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon, high
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 am edt wed jun 24 2026

discussion...

the synoptic pattern unlocks today as a vertically stacked low
dislodges from southeast manitoba once a speed max aloft moves from
the high plains into the upper midwest. some showers and
thunderstorms are still on-going along these features, supported by
respective surface reflections and an advancing gulf feed of higher
thetae. high-based clouds are beginning to spill downstream into
southeast michigan early this morning, well ahead of precipitation
potential as 24.00z kdtx raob sampled a mid-level environment
lacking saturation. forecast soundings indicate top-down moistening
accelerates between 14z and 18z today as column winds back zonally
in response to preceding height falls. pwats are projected to
double, from about 0.50 inches to over 1.00 inches, by 18z, aided by
low-level flow eventually orienting southwesterly prior to the
arrival of expected rainfall. standard variance exists in cams
regarding the intensity of the initial round of showers which could
arrive as early as 17z for the tri-cities region. latest pops
reasonably phase-in higher confidence wording north of i-69 along
the leading lobe of cva, before convective showers/storms fill in
further south. scope of electrification should be limited due to the
combination of capping near 10 kft and delayed boundary-layer
moistening, which suppresses mean sbcape values to less than 100
j/kg.

showers wane/exit rather quickly between 01z and 04z thursday as
drier mid-level air filters in, but questions remain regarding
rainfall potential the rest of the night. the occluded low drifts
into lower michigan and should spur additional shower activity, but
coverage ought to become more scattered with this secondary
response. model agreement in placement remains poor, even at this
time horizon. surface dewpoints rise overnight beneath a
southwesterly low-level jet, promoting an upward trend in
instability. the chance for thunder will be on the rise as the
airmass moistens through the night and into thursday.

the weak aforementioned low gradually crosses central lower on
thursday as instability continues to build in the presence of
sustained moisture transport. parcel paths could overcome weak sub-5
kft capping early thursday afternoon. tall/skinny sbcape profiles
are then advertised by several hi-res solutions, and href mean
mucape indicates widespread 1+ kj/kg across the region. higher 0-6
km shear may be focused south of m-59, which lends low-end potential
for convective enhancement and an isolated marginally severe wind
threat, should the cap erode as predicted. thursday also marks the
first day where highs could break 80f, primarily for metro detroit
and points south, which would be the first time since june 13. high
pressure then fills in behind the departing low during the first
half of the night thursday with drying and stabilization concluding
activity.

low amplitude shortwave trough stemming from a deep-layer
anticyclone over northwestern mexico will travel across the four
corners and southern plains thursday, reaching the ohio valley by
friday. ridging over the great lakes and ene lower tropospheric flow
should prevent the northward creep of most shower/thunderstorm
activity from the ohio valley system, but the possibility exists for
parts of lenawee and monroe counties to get clipped at some point
friday. dry conditions are forecast for the rest of the area, with
readings a couple degrees cooler given the weak flow trajectories
tracing northward into ontario.

heights begin building overhead saturday as central conus
transitions to a longwave ridging pattern over the weekend and into
next week. gradient winds maintain an easterly component saturday
and into sunday, helping to cap temperatures in the low 80s. mainly
dry conditions expected with a gradual creep in surface dewpoints.

this becomes much more pronounced during the first half of next week
as 500 mb geopotential heights spike and approach 600 dam near the
confluence of the mississippi and ohio rivers. this leads to an
amplified composite ridge axis occupying much of north america, and
could significantly dampen the impact of a positively tilted
progressive closed low descending across the pacific northwest.
latest medium-range deterministic, ensemble, and ai gfs/ecmwf
solutions imply confidence in the staying power of this ridge
through most of next week, before it begins to retrograde toward the
end of next week. highs in the 90s with dewpoints climbing in the
70s may eventually warrant heat-related headlines. additionally,
convective potential exists as upstream waves traverse the periphery
of the ridge.

marine...

a low pressure system will gradually advance across the region
today and thursday. this will bring intermittent potential for
showers and thunderstorms through this period. limited wind and wave
action expected overall given a weak gradient, but with any stronger
storms being capable of producing locally higher gusts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kgk
marine.......kgk/mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.