Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
658 am est fri jan 23 2026

.what has changed...
the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm
warning for most of the area except for lucas, wood, hancock,
ottawa, and sandusky counties which remain in a watch due to
greater uncertainty in the axis of heavier snowfall. the
warnings run from 00z sunday through 15z monday for the ohio
counties and from 00z sunday through 18z monday for nw pa.
timing and forecast snowfall amounts remain largely the same.

&&

.key messages...
1) a major winter storm will impact the entire region saturday
night into monday morning bringing widespread accumulating
snowfall combined with single digit and sub-zero wind chills.
hazardous travel is expected, especially on sunday.

2) wind chills of 10 to 15 below zero today and actual air
temperatures below zero tonight into saturday morning have
kept a cold weather advisory in place for this period.

3) prolonged cold temperatures will last through next week with
frequent bouts of sub-zero wind chills and light snow.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the first widespread "cross country" winter storm with plentiful
moisture from the gulf in about 4 years will impact the entire
region saturday night into monday morning.

synoptic overview:
infrared satellite and water vapor loops early this morning
show the early stages of this storm coming together, with a
closed southern stream mid/upper low off baja california and
northern stream mid/upper jet energy diving into the northern
rockies on the western periphery of the broad central and
eastern north american trough. as the southern stream mid/upper
low moves into mexico today and tonight, it will start to phase
with the aforementioned northern stream energy. this will
encourage strong warm/moist advection from an open gulf across
the southern plains tonight into saturday morning, leading to
widespread precip breaking out beneath strong isentropic ascent
across the southern plains, lower and mid mississippi valleys,
and tennessee valley. during the day saturday, another piece of
northern stream jet energy will dive through the rockies and
northern plains, with the associated shortwave phasing with the
southern stream shortwave. this second phasing is what will
really accelerate the surface cyclogenesis along the texas and
louisiana gulf coasts by saturday evening. the deepening surface
low will then lift across the tennessee and lower ohio valleys
sunday and offshore of roughly the jersey shore by monday
morning, with deep mid/upper troughing and associated pool of
arctic air then reloading across the central and eastern conus
in its wake. as this low lifts northeastward saturday night
through monday morning, the aforementioned large shield of
precip will spread across the region. this will begin late
saturday evening, peak during the day sunday, then gradually
taper off from west to east late sunday night into monday.

precip type/snow amounts/impacts:
the large mid/upper trough combined with strong 1040-1050 arctic
high pressure at the surface over the upper midwest and great
lakes ahead of this system saturday will keep plenty of cold air
in place for precip to fall as strictly snow with this storm. we
are 100% confident that any mixed precip will be south of our
region. timing remains consistent on snow overspreading the
region from southwest to northeast late saturday evening, with
the heaviest snow falling on sunday before slowly tapering off
sunday night and monday from west to east. the biggest challenge
with the forecast continues to be where the axis of heaviest
snow will set up. the past several model cycles have seen a nw
shift in the track of the surface low and resultant axis of
heaviest snowfall, and there is still time for further
refinements to the track as model guidance resolves the
aforementioned phasing. northern and southern stream jet phasing
is known to pull systems farther nw than models initially
indicate, so this nw trend has not been surprising. with this
being said, there were no notable changes to snowfall amounts
with this morning`s update, and it still looks like a solid 6-12
inches for most of the region. probabilistic guidance continues
to paint the highest probabilities for greater than 8" of snow
in 24 hours (60-70%) over our se counties from mt. vernon to
meadville, with 30-40% probabilities in nw ohio from findlay to
toledo. if the low trends farther nw, then the heavier snow will
reach into nw ohio, but given the lower confidence at this
point, kept that area in a watch. given the aforementioned
higher confidence further e and se, upgraded the rest of the
area to a warning. since this will be a widespread and long
duration snow, travel will be heavily impacted everywhere with
snow covered roads. it will not be a very windy system, with ne
winds averaging 8 to 15 knots through sunday (highest in nw ohio
and near the lake), but the very cold temperatures will lead to
a dry snow that will still blow around easily, especially as nw
winds increase to 15-25 knots on the backside of the system
sunday night and monday.

temperatures/wind chills:
as stated, arctic air will be well-established ahead of this
system and remain in place through its duration. temperatures in
the single digits saturday night, teens and 20s sunday, and
single digits/low teens sunday night into monday will lead to
below zero wind chills at night and single digits during the
day. anyone traveling should have a winter weather kit with warm
blankets, food, water, and portable chargers since the extreme
temperatures will worsen the impacts for stranded motorists.
travel is strongly discouraged for this event.

key message 2...
before the much talked about storm, we already have to deal with
bitter cold. an arctic cold front will continue to push east of
the region this morning. a westerly boundary layer flow in the
wake of the front over the next few hours combined with
lingering moisture and strong cold air advection has generated
lake-effect snow showers over far ne ohio and nw pa. the lake is
mostly ice covered, so this will keep the activity light, but
boosted pops for 1 to 2 inches of snow this morning. another
surface trough looks to push across the lake in the 12-14z
timeframe, and that will bring a burst of lake enhanced snow
showers to most of the lakeshore. this could bring a few tenth
of an inch as far west as lorain county. most of ne ohio will
see a few tenths to up to 0.5 inch this morning, with those 1-2
inch amounts mainly confined to northern ashtabula and erie
counties. boundary layer flow will turn nw behind the surface
trough late this morning through the afternoon along with strong
arctic high pressure building in from the nw, so expect
lingering snow showers to end by late afternoon or early
evening.

temperatures will steadily fall through the day today, so made a
non-diurnal temperature curve. expect temperatures to be in the
single digits by late morning through the afternoon. this
combined with winds of 15-25 knots will lead to wind chills of
-10 to -15 f. the winds will become light tonight as the high
builds in, but actual air temperatures will tank into the -3 to
-8 f range, with some sheltered valley locations of ne ohio and
nw pa possibly falling below -10 f. temperatures will remain
below zero through saturday morning. the cold weather advisory
covers the combination of wind chills today and below zero
actual air temperatures tonight and early saturday.

key message 3...
arctic air will remain in place all of next week as deep
mid/upper troughing remains entrenched across central and
eastern north america downstream of massive ridging off the west
coast extending into alaska. this will keep a strong mid-level
vortex in place near hudson bay, pinwheeling a series of
reinforcing shortwaves and associated cold fronts through the
region. each one of these weak disturbances will bring light
synoptic snows, as well as periods of light lake-effect snow.
the details of these clipper-type systems are difficult to
pinpoint this many days out, but the biggest impact will be
prolonged cold with periods of below zero wind chills. high
temperatures will not climb out of the teens all week, with
frequent lows in the single digits to below zero.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
we start the forecast period with mostly clear skies and vfr
conditions. a secondary cold front will cross the region,
accompanied by brief, light snow showers impacting parts of the
forecast area with 1-3 hour of 1-2 sm snow and several hours of
breezy northwest winds and mvfr ceilings. as high pressure
builds in, this should should give way to light and variable
winds along with vfr and mostly clear skies tonight. mid- and
upper- level clouds begin spreading in from the south saturday
morning.

outlook...widespread snow spreads moves in from the south
saturday night, before tapering off monday morning. snow will be
heavy at times on sunday. non-vfr with lake effect snow showers will
be possible in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania monday
through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
west-northwest flow will continue to diminish through today and
tonight as high pressure builds into the region, with nearly
calm conditions on saturday.

east-northeast flow of around 15-20 knots develops on sunday, before
becoming northwest on monday and then southwest on tuesday. there is
a very low chance for gales (5-10%) with the southwesterly flow on
tuesday. there is also a low chance for low water in the western
basin as well.

ice on lake erie (which is mostly ice-covered at this point) will
continue to thicken/expand through next week as several bouts of
cold air impact the region. periods of stronger winds, such as this
morning and on monday/tuesday, will limit ice growth and cause ice
to shift around.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 7 am est saturday for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
morning for ohz003-006>008-017.
winter storm warning from 7 pm saturday to 10 am est monday
for ohz009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...cold weather advisory until 7 am est saturday for paz001>003.
winter storm warning from 7 pm saturday to 1 pm est monday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
641 am est fri jan 23 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers are expected for west-northwest wind
favored regions through early saturday morning. accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with the greatest totals in
michigan. travel with caution as visibility will be limited
within snow bands.

- a cold weather advisory is in effect through saturday
morning. breezy west-northwest winds combined with
temperatures in the single digits above and below zero will
lead to dangerous wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero at times.
coldest conditions will be in the overnight and early morning
periods.

- a winter storm watch for heavy snow is in effect saturday
night into sunday evening for areas generally along and south
of us 24, east of highway 35. snow accumulations of around 6
inches are possible for most of the watch area. areas east of
i 69 and south of us 30 have the greatest potential for
accumulations to exceed 6 inches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 639 am est fri jan 23 2026

the main changes made overnight to the forecast were to add greater
detail to the winter storm watch for portions of the area, and to
extend the southernmost segment of the cold weather advisory.
greater details on each of these, plus a discussion on today-
tonight`s lake effect are below.

1. cold weather advisory

extended the cold weather advisory into saturday morning for the
segment that was primarily south of us 24/east of i 69 that
initially ended at 1 pm est today. the primary reason was that wind
chill values are slightly lower than previously forecasted for early
this morning and again tonight (previously 10 to 15 below zero; now
reaching 15 to 20 below zero at times). initially forecasters held
off on extending this southern segment because the afternoon wind
chills today were below cold weather advisory criteria (5 to 10
below i think previously)-and because tonight`s wind chills looked
to marginally meet the criteria of 15 below required for the
advisory. however, with the adjustment to winds/temps this forecast
issuance the wind chills for the afternoon and early evening will
range closer to 10 to 15 below zero, then drop overnight into sat am
more persistently to around 15 to 20 below. extending the advisory
made sense-especially given our neighboring offices have their
advisories persisting through tonight/sat am as well (previously had
a gap). high temperatures today will struggle to make it out of the
single digits above zero, with low temps falling into the single
digits below zero tonight (some areas in mi/far northern in could
reach 10 below). west-northwest winds today of around 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will make for quite a miserable day-unless
of course you enjoy the cold.

2. winter storm watch from 7 pm et sat(24th)-7 pm et into sun(25th)

today was a tough decision regarding whether or not to make changes
to the initial watch area or to upgrade portions to a warning. in
the end, i left the watch in place for now with no expansions from
the previous issuance. my current storm total snow forecast for this
24 hour period based on the available data had the greatest totals
south and east:

*1 to 3 inches in southern lower mi outside of hillsdale county and
southern berrien (3-4").
*3-5 inches along/north of us 24, with greatest values along us 24
east of highway 35.
*between 5-6" south of us 24, east of highway 35. i do have around
6.5" for much of allen county, oh and jay/blackford county, in--and
then for smaller portions of van wert county, oh and adams/grant
county, in.

i`m most confident in seeing snow accums meet/exceed 6" for areas
generally south of us 30 and east of i 69-but there is still just
enough uncertainty amongst the models that worst case scenario have
this end up as an advisory event. if the gfs (and some of the other
guidance) is right, the timing will shift about 6 hours, and qpf
will drop by about 0.03-0.06" in the watch area, and as much as 0.05
to 0.10" for areas further north and west-which would impact snow
totals enough to keep most of the area more in the advisory realm.
if the nam or similar guidance is right, qpf increases by about 0.1-
0.2" across the board (isolated up to 0.3" increase), which would
increase snow totals into warning criteria (and advisory needs would
expand northwest). for your amusement and to demonstrate the range
of potential outcomes that lead to my limited confidence...the snow
probabilities for this time period in the watch area range from 1-3"
(low end) to 8-11" (high end). the higher solution would also result
in widespread advisory/warning criteria well beyond the current
watch area (whereas low end suggests 0 to 2" outside of watch).

i used the probabilities of exceedence for snow totals to guide
my final decision on the watch:

*probabilities for exceeding 4" are 60-80 percent (best further
south and east). areas along us 24 that are further north and west
are closer to 45-50 percent (20-45% for mi counties, highest east).

*probabilities for exceeding 6" are generally 30-50% along or just
north of us 24. areas just south of us 24 are in the 40 to 60
percent range-with values of 50-60 percent confined to the area
along/south of us 30, east of i 69.

*probabilities for exceeding 8" are around 25-40% in the watch area,
with highest values east of i 69 and along/south of us 30 (greatest
in allen/southern van wert in oh; jay, blackford, and southern
adams/grant counties in in.

generally speaking the somewhat subjective forecaster confidence
level for a warning needs to be 80 percent...and with these
probabilities below that i opted to keep the watch.

ind/iln opted to upgrade their watch to a winter storm warning-which
makes sense as confidence is much higher to the south (their
criteria is also 5" whereas ours is 6"). cle was considering
upgrading for portions of their area but decided to keep the watch
as well given uncertainties. i was close to upgrading the areas
along the ind/iln/border (with best chance of exceeding 6-8"), but
thought it would be best to hold off given we are still 36 hours out
from the event. in my experience, phasing waves like what may occur
with this event have a high bust risk. hopefully guidance comes into
better alignment for the next forecast update-especially as the main
wave with this system comes on shore for better sampling out west.

3. lake effect snow today into saturday morning

last but not least, expecting around 1-3" of lake effect snow today
for w-nw favored snow belts. winds will gradually shift northeast
overnight and east-southeast by saturday morning, which will force
any remaining bands offshore (perhaps a little mesolow over lake mi
per the hi-res guidance). have a high pop/lower qpf forecast because
of the cold...the dgz is essentially at the ground so this will
limit the optimal dendrite formation for higher snow totals. gusty
winds near the lakeshore may also serve to break apart any better
formed snowflakes. we are also working with a fairly dry airmass,
which will limit qpf. we do get a boost of forcing with a couple of
shortwaves moving through this afternoon and evening that may
increase rates for a period-but not feeling confident in totals
greater than 3" or so. if travelling near the lakeshore, consider
allowing for extra time to reach your destination. even though snow
totals will be limited, the small flake size and any blowing snow
thanks to gusty winds today will certainly cause visibility
restrictions. driving in and out of lake effect snow bands is
hazardous in itself as visibility can quickly deteriorate. roads may
also be slick in places with higher accumulations.


&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 639 am est fri jan 23 2026

bitterly cold wnw flow will continue to allow les to impact mainly
ksbn today into this evening with highly variable visbys with snow
showers. a few flurries and a trend toward mvfr cigs get into kfwa
later this morning and afternoon. west-northwest winds gusting up to
25 knots today diminish tonight otherwise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ saturday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for inz018-022>027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory until 10 am est saturday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for ohz002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est saturday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning until 1 am est saturday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
618 am est fri jan 23 2026

.key messages...

- a cold weather advisory remains in effect through saturday morning
with wind chill values dropping to between -15f and -25f.

- coverage and intensity of lake effect snow showers will decrease
during the morning hours with new snow accumulations of less than a
quarter inch.

- confidence continues to rise in widespread accumulating snowfall
for sunday, including the potential for 3+ inches focused south of m-
59.

&&

.aviation...

moisture along and ahead of a cold front will bring the potential
for snow showers at the detroit terminals the first hour of the taf
period. very dry air associated with surface high pressure will lead
to low sky fraction this morning before diurnal heating contributes
to stratocumulus development this afternoon. a lowering inversion
will then dry the lower column out and lead to skc tonight.

for dtw...snow showers will be possible the first hour of the taf
period. mvfr development appears likely by the early afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon.

* high for precip type as snow through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 414 am est fri jan 23 2026

discussion...

an airmass of arctic origin spilled across the great lakes region
overnight, resulting in anomalously cold temperatures and wind
chills this morning. 08z readings were generally in the low to mid
single digits (f), but with post-frontal gradient winds holding in
the 10-15 knot range, actual wind chill values will drop into the
-15f to -20f range as cold air continues to filter in. based on
expected temperature/wind trends through the remaining morning
hours, the likelihood to reach extreme cold warning criteria (-25f)
in widespread fashion appears low, especially south of i-69. no
headline adjustments were made with this morning`s forecast, but a
few isolated/outlying areas could briefly experience wind chills
below the -25f mark. a cold weather advisory remains in effect
through saturday morning, as similar conditions are still expected
to repeat tonight into saturday morning.

for the rest of today, the closed low featuring a sampled 495 dam
geopotential height at 500 mb (23.00z cwpl raob), broadens as it
ejects ene across quebec. this reinforces adjacent positioning of
the polar jet for most of today with the 150 knot core residing over
southern lower michigan. meanwhile, differential cold advection
helps steepen low-level lapse rates while mixing depths hold near
the 850 mb level (4 kft agl). in spite of observed upstream 850 mb
temperatures of -37c and -33c at kinl and kmpx, respectively, low-
level flow trajectories over lake michigan will have a minor
moderating effect upon arrival to southeast michigan. 850 mb
temperatures minimize within the -25c to -30c range locally between
15z and 21z, per model data. this translates to high temperatures
struggling to get much more than a few degrees above 0f during the
daylight hours today. gradient winds hold from the wnw aob 15 knots,
therefore daytime wind chills should linger in the minus teens for
most of the day. snowfall should become more transient with time and
minimal accumulations. slrs decline with decreasing dendrite quality
given the lack of dgz overlap, therefore wind-blown snow should tend
to be more impactful than new accumulations. tonight will be the
coldest night of the week with lows of -10f or colder possible.
fortunately, winds weaken and trend toward calm late tonight as
diffuse surface high pressure sets up over southern lower. still
expect wind chill values to fit squarely within cold weather
advisory criteria.

weak low-level wind field saturday minimizes opportunities for
another round of lake effect snow. not much in the way of relief
from the cold, but the difference between air temperatures and wind
chills will be limited as high pressure crosses over southeast
michigan, eventually flipping light winds easterly.

the next precipitating synoptic system lifts out of the southern
plains early sunday preceded by an extended ramp of isentropic
upglide through the ohio valley and lower peninsula. this
facilitates column moistening and the development of light snowfall,
well downstream of the northern and southern stream wave phasing
that unfolds over south-central conus. the lag in dynamic support
until later in the day sunday suggests less than an inch of snow on
the ground heading into sunday morning, before the better rates
arrive during the day with the strongest dynamic influence and deep-
layer dgz intersection. the qpf footprint with this system is
relatively narrow where the highest confidence in 3+ inches is
focused south of m-59. further north, and even moreso west, qpf
drops off sharply with less than an inch of total accumulation
anticipated north of m-46.

marine...

the expansion of arctic air in the wake of a cold front will
maintain strong overlake instability and a deep mixing layer which
will retain breezy conditions. wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots are
expected through the day. some isolated gust to gales cannot be
ruled out across northern lake huron this morning, but the gradual
expansion of a strong high pressure system will limit gale potential
through the day. gale warnings have expired, but a heavy freezing
spray warning remains in effect for all of lake huron. additionally,
snow squalls remain likely favored through north and north central
lake huron where low-level convergence is maximized. rapid
reductions in visibilities are likely under any snow squall.

arctic air holds over the weekend but lighter winds are expected as
the aforementioned high pressure system settles over the area. an
expansive low pressure system over the eastern us will then clip the
southern great lakes sunday, bringing widespread light snow through
the day for portions of the southern great lakes.

climate...

the record low max temps for today, january 23rd.

detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1883)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1959)
saginaw: 3 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est saturday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 6 am est saturday for lhz361>363-
462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......am
climate......tf/kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.