Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
380
fxus61 kcle 202355
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
755 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast has trended rainier for tonight into the first half of
monday. there is potential for localized flooding during this time,
best chance in the southern reaches of the cwa.

&&

.key messages...
1) additional rain is likely tonight into early monday. rain may be
heavy at times and could lead to localized flooding, particularly in
the southern part of the area.

2) a first taste of fall arrives this week with cooler
temperatures periodic rain chances, especially on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
after a brief break in showers his afternoon, another round of
rain will move into the area this evening through tonight as a
shortwave moves east along a slow-moving frontal boundary. by
the time rain moves into the area, the boundary will likely be
hugging the cwa border or be just to the south, which will make
the rainfall forecast somewhat tricky. the heaviest rainfall
will likely occur to the south/southwest of the local area,
although there is potential that heavy rain clips the southern
fringe of the cwa (mainly south of the us-30 corridor).
additional rain accumulation of around an inch (maybe locally
higher amounts) is possible in southern zones if the frontal
boundary ends up being a bit farther north than currently
expected. if heavy rainfall materializes in the local area,
there may be localized flooding in low-lying and poor drainage
areas, especially in locations that see prolonged periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. will need to keep an eye on radar
and hi-res guidance trends and make adjustments to the forecast
is needed. opted to hold off on a flood watch due to low
confidence in the placement of the heaviest rainfall and the
greatest risk of flooding.

rain chances will remain relatively higher through monday
morning with shower activity becoming more isolated monday
afternoon and evening.

key message 2...
by tuesday, canadian high pressure will shift into the region,
allowing temperatures to decrease for the majority of the week.
highs will be in the 60s monday through friday with overnight
lows in the 50s expected. friday will likely be in the chilliest
night of the week with forecast lows in the 40s at inland
locations. while periodic and scattered showers are possible
through thursday, pops will peak on wednesday as an upper trough
pushes east across the midwest. dry weather will return by
friday and continue into next weekend.

it will be quite breezy on monday and tuesday due to a tight
pressure gradient over the region as high pressure builds in
from the north and low pressure passes across the ohio valley.
northeast wind gusts of around 30 mph are expected across nw oh
with locally higher gusts to 35 mph possible along the lakeshore
of nw oh.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
the next round of showers is marching east across the region.
expect the back edge of the steadiest rain to reach ktol and
kfdy by 05-07z and kcle by 08z, but steadier showers will
likely hold on farther south at kmfd, kcak, and kyng into mid
afternoon monday. the rain will be light, but cigs will continue
to bounce between ifr and low end vfr, with mvfr being the most
common. visibilities will also drop in the steadiest rain. keri
will stay ne of the most widespread showers, so expect vfr to
mainly dominate there, but periods of mvfr cannot be ruled out.
gradual drying and slow improvement to cigs will occur toward
the end of the taf cycle monday evening.

ne winds will gradually increase to 10-20 knots tonight. gusts
of 20-25 knots are expected late tonight and monday, especially
near lake erie.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
hazardous conditions are expected on lake erie through the first
half of the week. northeast winds will increase throughout this
evening as a cold front pushes south of lake erie and canadian
high pressure begins to build in from the north. small craft
advisories and beach hazards statements begin in the western
basin at 00z/8 pm with headlines spreading east across the lake
overnight and into monday morning. expect winds to peak at
around 25 knots monday morning through late tuesday night
possibly through as late as wednesday morning. winds may
periodically approach 30 knots, primarily in the open waters.
winds will slowly diminish wednesday night into thursday,
although persistent easterly flow 15 to 20 knots may require an
extension of headlines in the western nearshore zones into
thursday. east winds should diminish below 15 knots by late
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for ohz003-
007-009>011.
beach hazards statement from 2 am edt monday through wednesday
evening for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from monday morning through wednesday
evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez142>146.
small craft advisory from 2 am monday to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez147-148.
small craft advisory from 8 am monday to 8 pm edt tuesday for
lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...garuckas
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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399
fxus63 kiwx 202248
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
648 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

.key messages...

- a flash flood watch is in effect from portions of northern
indiana and northwest ohio through late tonight. 1-2 inches of
rain is possible along and south of us-30. areas further south
that received excessive rainfall this past week could see an
exacerbation to any lingering flooding. isolated thunderstorms
are possible.

- light rain chances continue through monday afternoon,
dwindling towards the evening. cooler and trending drier
through the week, with highs in the 60s, low 70s and lows in
the upper 40s and low-mid 50s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 409 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

opted to extend the flash flood watch until 2 am edt for areas
further south and east given expected rainfall through late tonight-
which is where most of the rain has fallen over the past week and
impacts linger. additional totals of 1-2" are possible through
monday morning as a shortwave or two move through, which could
exacerbate any flooding in these areas. much of the high res
develops heavier rainfall within some more convective elements this
evening, however as of this writing we are pretty meager in terms of
heavy rain. expect a period of isentropic ascent to continue through
at least the evening as a low pressure system develops along the
stationary front with this first shortwave. still have decent warm
cloud depth, pwats around 2" and a llj of around 25-30 knots, so
heavy rain is still a possibility. thunderstorms are also possible.

otherwise, expect a drying trend late monday into the rest of the
week, with mainly intermittent low chances (20-30%) as we sit on the
periphery of upper level ridge/upper low, with surface high pressure
below (particularly thursday into the weekend). it will be more fall
like, with highs in the 60s, low 70s and then lows falling into the
upper 40s, 50s. by the weekend, we warm up into the low-mid 70s
(warmest sun).

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 645 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

numerous showers are moving from west to east across the area,
with the back edge of precipitation seen on radar in northern
illinois. rain will gradually come to an end from west to east
between 01z-04z tonight. low end ifr ceilings are ongoing as
low level stratus persists. ifr ceilings will gradually lift to
mvfr by monday morning. stratus will continue throughout the day
with ceilings rising to low end vfr by monday evening. gusty
northeast winds will continue through the taf forecast period
with sustained winds between 12-15 kts and sporadic gusts to 20
kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 2 am edt monday for inz017-018-023>027-
032>034.
oh...flood watch until 2 am edt monday for ohz015-024.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
938
fxus63 kdtx 210354
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1154 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably cool conditions will persist into the middle of week.

- areas of showers are possible again tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

low level moisture associated with the frontal zone has been pushed
south of the airspace, with cloud cover now focused above 10.0 kft.
localized pockets of low vfr/mvfr have been streaming off of saginaw
bay/lake huron, but are transient with low confidence in impacts to
the terminals. a similar pattern exists into the daytime hours, and
could see a brief period of broken 3.0-5.0 kft agl ceilings as
diurnal mixing ramps up in the morning. otherwise, northeast flow
persists with sustained flow around 10-15 knots and gusts up to 25
knots. wind direction stays locked in through the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not anticipated through the
forecast.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

discussion...

showers continue to dissipate as expected from north to south as
drier air filters into the low levels. this process is the result of
split flow moving in aloft and 1028 mb surface high pressure
building out of central ontario. a wind shift/cold front is being
driven south by the strengthening anticyclone, and will eventually
steer gradient flow northeasterly. despite the influx of a drier
canadian air mass, stratocumulus clouds are expected to linger
overnight given the cold advection over lake huron. cooler again
tonight, with temperatures dipping into the 40s for some locations
farther north.

readings hold below seasonal averages through the first half of the
week, with mainly dry conditions prevailing as the ridge influence
takes command. the exception will be closer to the ohio border where
a shortwave moves from the plains into the ohio valley, before
closing off and stalling. expect vicinity showers at times monday
through tuesday, although the rest of southeast michigan ought to
stay dry and breezy, particularly during the afternoon hours as the
ridge/subsidence wins out. thermal troughing maximizes across the
midwest by wednesday with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the mid
(perhaps low) single digits (celsius). the nam shows that the
coldest air should filter across lake erie, setting up a north-to-
south thermal gradient over southeast lower, with portions of metro
detroit possibly seeing highs capped aob 60f.

the synoptic pattern should lock up midweek as the closed mid/upper
low orients in rex block formation, immediately south of the ontario
anticyclonic wave. a southern stream wave will fold into the ohio
valley and break the stationary waves late wednesday into thursday,
offering some potential for showers, more so for the southern half
of the forecast area. it will take some time before temperatures
begin to recover, as easterly lower column flow hangs on toward the
end of the workweek.

marine...

the central great lakes reside on the southern fringe of broad
northern ontario high pressure through the first half of this week.
the combination with a lingering stalled frontal boundary over the
ohio valley results in a respectable gradient across the region
maintaining moderate northeasterly winds through tuesday (gusting 20-
25kts with 30kts possible in the saginaw bay). waves rippling along
the frontal boundary could offer some sporadic shower chances over
the southern great lakes though influence of high pressure is
expected to keep most of the area dry. westward drift of high
pressure leads to a shift toward more easterly flow wednesday though
with little to no reduction in wind speeds. gales remain unlikely
though onshore flow warrants long duration small craft advisories
for all nearshore waters.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.