Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
703
fxus61 kcle 192357
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
757 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated showers this afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible saturday afternoon. widespread rainfall
expected sunday night through monday which may result in rises
on area rivers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
lingering upper level troughing will continue to influence the
region despite surface high pressure slowly building overhead
from the west. some isolated showers this afternoon across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania will
diminish later this evening. additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the day on saturday as a
shortwave aloft moves overhead. coverage will remain scattered
with the highest pops confined to southeastern zones.

the majority of saturday night into the daytime hours on sunday
will be dry as the shortwave exits the region. by sunday night
surface low pressure is forecast to approach from the west
before tracking across the ohio valley during the day on monday.
area pwats averaging ~1.75 inches are forecast which is well
above the 90th percentile for mid/late june. current rainfall
amounts sunday night through monday range between 1-1.5 inches
with slightly higher amounts of 1.5-1.75 inches across the
western third of the forecast area. locally heavy rainfall will
be possible in any strong thunderstorm and/or storms that train
over the same area. rises on area rivers are expected with the
possibility of a few rivers rising into minor flood stage. will
continue to monitor the track of the surface low and rainfall
amounts as we near closer to monday. wpc expanded the slight
risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall to include the
majority of the forecast area during this timeframe.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period. diurnal
cumulus is waning this evening and west to northwest winds are
starting to diminish with the stabilizing nighttime atmosphere.
some mid-level clouds over and west of lake michigan will push
east tonight and spread across the terminals overnight into
saturday. for saturday, ceilings across the area will lower to
between 4 and 8 kft during the morning and early afternoon
hours with a shortwave moving through the region. some iso/sct
showers and some very iso ts may develop on saturday early
afternoon with the best chances at kcak and kyng - have just
prob30 for rain right now for a brief window. a surface trough
will move through the area, pushing rain east and trends will
be for scattering cloud decks wind west winds with gusts to
20-25 kts on saturday afternoon and early evening.

outlook...showers and storms are possible sunday afternoon
through tuesday morning with the potential for non-vfr
coverage.

&&

.marine...
high pressure south of lake erie will keep the weather fairly
quiet for the next couple of days. westerly winds of 10 to 18
knots and waves of 2 to 3 feet are expected today through
saturday. winds will start out variable on sunday but a low
pressure system will track eastward into the upper ohio valley
late sunday. east to northeasterly wind 15 to 25 knots will
develop sunday afternoon through monday and waves of 3 to 6
feet. a small craft advisory will likely be needed late sunday
through monday for higher winds and waves. high pressure builds
back in over the lake by tuesday with a light northerly wind
around 10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
659
fxus63 kiwx 192317
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
717 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

.key messages...

- light rain showers across the area tonight into early saturday
with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder especially for our far
northern portions.

- there is a moderate swim risk for berrien county southeast
lake michigan beaches on saturday morning.

- widespread, moderate to heavy rain is expected sunday evening
into monday with some embedded thunderstorms for especially
the southern third of the area. total rainfall amounts of 1-3"
are expected.

- cool weather persists through the next seven days with highs
in the 70s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 133 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

cool weather continues (highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s) with
a thickening cumulus deck into this evening as a weak
disturbance moves through the great lakes region and skirts our
area to the north into saturday early morning hours. periodic
chances of rain and thunderstorms will continue over the next
several days with a cyclonic flow aloft in place due to a broad
low circulation centered over central canada.

we will see a short break saturday night into sunday morning
before a stronger disturbance moves eastward into the region on
sunday into monday and right now there is question to exactly
where the circulation exactly tracks. as the further north the
storm tracks the better the chances for thunderstorms (perhaps
strong to severe) would be for parts of our cwa. as of this
afternoon consensus is for a little further south track which
would lower our chances for the stronger storms and a bit less
rainfall that most of the area will see with the circulation
deformation zone overhead on the north side of the system. spc
currently has a general thunderstorms threat for our
southwestern portions of the cwa with a marginal threat just on
the fringe of white county. wpc also has our entire area under a
slight risk for the excessive rainfall outlook for day 3.
current thinking is total rainfall will range 1 to 2 inches with
the possibility of a few locations hitting the 3 inch mark. the
heaviest rainfall will fall across the southern portions of the
area but again will need to closely monitor the exact track as
that will dictate if we see higher/lower amounts.

another break in activity is expected by monday evening into
tuesday before another system moves into the area late tuesday
into wednesday. details are a bit sparse right now with this
system but in the coming days we will have a better idea. this
looks to be another system to watch.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 715 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

west to northwest flow continues across the southern great lakes
early this evening situated between expansive missouri
valley/mid ms valley anticyclone and low level troughing across
the upper ms valley. a short wave across southern mn/western wi
will drop east-southeast to the southern lower michigan
overnight. westerly flow through the base of this trough will
allow for some weak westerly moisture advection from the west.
forcing from this wave should allow scattered showers across
northern il/southern wi to shift eastward across northern
indiana overnight. some weak mucapes on the order of 100-200
j/kg could support an isolated instance of thunder across nw
indiana early overnight, but overall point probabilities are too
low for taf inclusion. did mention tempo/prob30 shower at
ksbn/kfwa respectively for the overnight hours to account for
this short wave and weak return low level moisture advection. a
weak low level thermal trough gets reinforced across the
southern great lakes on saturday which should provide steep
enough low lapse rates for westerly gusts into the 15 to 20 knot
range saturday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
639
fxus63 kdtx 192339
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
739 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers are possible saturday morning. additional
chances saturday afternoon in addition to isolated thunderstorm
chances.

- broader coverage of showers and thunderstorms possible sunday
evening and overnight, especially south of i-94.

- cooler than normal temperatures are expected through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions this evening with a transition from a fading diurnal
cumulus field to a gradual increase in high based cloud with time
ahead of low pressure set to track through the great lakes. moisture
will briefly deepen late tonight and early saturday, resulting in
some reduction of cloud base toward lower vfr/brief mvfr, while
introducing potential for scattered shower production through the
morning period. a weakly unstable environment emerging for the
afternoon will maintain a lower probability for showers/isolated
thunderstorms, but with greater focus likely just to the northeast
of the terminal corridor. no convective mention for saturday
afternoon highlighted at this stage.

d21/dtw convection... very low chance of a thunderstorm late tonight
into saturday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5 kft late tonight and saturday.

* very low for thunderstorm occurrence late tonight and saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 247 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

discussion...

healthy diurnal cumulus response today as weak mid-level cold
advection has supported steepening lower level lapse rates. weak
resultant instability (<500 j/kg) is focused over the thumb where
coolest air aloft resides offering an isolated to widely scattered
shower chance through the evening. lack of instability precludes
thunderstorm chances however a rumble or two of thunder is possible
given freezing levels around 7kft.

shortwave ridging overnight is shunted east by the arrival of a
compact wave arriving out of the upper midwest late tonight-early
saturday morning. accompanying nocturnal convection is expected to
at least partially decay as it arrives over se mi owing to both
unfavorable diurnal timing as well as the lingering drier resident
airmass (pw near 0.6"/td near 50f). this am activity does augment
the column moisture profile as top-down saturation occurs by late
morning supporting afternoon convective potential as a peak of
~500j/kg of mlcape develops. greatest chances for convective showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm continue to look favored over the saginaw
valley/thumb where the faint surface `warm front` stalls providing a
weak convergence axis in addition to closer proximity to the parent
pv anomaly.

another brief period of low amplitude mid-level ridging follows
saturday night into sunday morning before a plains shortwave ejects
into the ohio valley late sunday. mid-range model trends have held
with a more southerly track in the wave resulting in the attendant
warm front holding near or just south of the state line. given
northerly flow over lower mi from northern ontario high pressure,
expect a sharper cutoff to the precip shield than the current broad
brushed likely pops from the nbm. areas south of m-59 stand the best
chances to see showers sunday night-monday morning with heaviest
rainfall totals (around 1") confined to near the ohio border.

thermal troughing continues to hold over the great lakes through
midweek maintaining seasonally cool conditions with highs in the
lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s. next chances for showers and
thunderstorms come wednesday with the arrival of a weak upper
midwest shortwave.

marine...

a ridge of high pressure will build in tonight through tomorrow
morning which will diminish wind speeds and gust intensity
overnight. a diffuse area of high pressure will then hold over the
great lakes through the weekend which will support lighter winds.
periodic rain showers will be possible as multiple upper-level
disturbances move over the region. a low pressure system will then
arrive over the ohio valley and southern great lakes sunday night to
monday morning, this will bring the next likely chances for rain and
some embedded thunderstorms and some stronger wind gusts, mainly
across lake erie and lake st. clair.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.