Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
755 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

.what has changed...
qpf for tonight into monday has trended a bit lower with this
update, but otherwise the forecast is on track and no significant
changes were needed.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain is expected and thunderstorms are possible
tonight into monday. rain may be moderate at times.

2) dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected through
early to mid week with temperatures warming and rain chances
returning late week into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will move east across the ohio valley and far southern
reaches of the forecast area late tonight into monday. showers will
attempt to overspread the region late this afternoon into this
evening, although it will likely remain virga for several hours due
to dry lower levels. precipitation will likely become a bit
more scattered with periodic dry periods near or shortly after
12z/8 am monday morning, although some cams (including the 12z
hrrr) have dry air working into the region earlier than that.
rain could be moderate at times, however qpf has trended down
further. around an inch of rain is possible across portions of
northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania with locally higher
amounts possible, although locations south of u.s. route 30 may
only see up to 0.75 inches of rain at most. some nuisance
ponding cannot be ruled out in low-lying and poor drainage areas
that get over an inch of rain, but the flooding risk is
relatively low at this point.

elevated thunderstorms remain possible tonight into early monday,
although severe weather is not anticipated. showers and isolated
thunderstorms may perk up a bit during peak diurnal heating east of
i-71, although instability will likely largely be to the southeast
of the local area.

key message 2...
below normal temperatures are expected monday and in more zonal
flow tuesday and wednesday. highs will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s monday before rising into the mid to upper 70s by
wednesday. temps moderate late week into the weekend with highs
likely returning to the mid 80s in many spots by sunday. dry
weather will return to the region monday night through wednesday
with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances returning as a
series of disturbances move across the region wednesday night
through the weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
rain over indiana and illinois will continue to spread east
tonight with a low pressure system moving through the ohio
valley. the active portion of the system with thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall will remain south of the terminals tonight.
however, an area of stratiform rain has developed north of the
low and continues to expand in a deformation zone in northern
illinois and indiana. this rain will spread into the airspace
tonight, bringing mvfr and eventually ifr conditions to the
terminals. with the low pressure system, a dry slot is
developing and will encroach into the airspace late tonight into
monday and may allow for a reprieve of the most pessimistic
conditions, especially for kmfd, kcak, and kyng. rain will exit
by the end of the taf period for most with ceilings improving to
mvfr. winds through the period will start generally easterly and
shift around to the north with the low pressure system passage.

outlook...non-vfr continues into monday night with low
ceilings. non-vfr possible again in rain showers wednesday
night through thursday night.

&&

.marine...
low pressure will track out of the mississippi valley tonight
and across northern ohio on monday, departing to the east monday
evening and night. this low pressure is not extremely strong,
but the track will be favorable for elevated east to north
winds across lake erie. winds will quickly shift east this
evening and increase to 15-25kt across the western and central
basins overnight tonight, peak at 20-25kt across much of the
lake monday morning and afternoon while gradually shifting more
northeast, then decrease from west to east late monday into
monday night while shifting northerly. waves will peak at 4 to
7 feet across the central basin on monday. have made some minor
adjustments to the timing of the small craft advisory and beach
hazards statement, and expanded the headlines to include
ashtabula county and erie county pa. generally tranquil marine
conditions are on tap tuesday and wednesday with high pressure.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 4 am edt monday through monday
afternoon for ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement from 4 am edt monday through monday
evening for ohz009>011.
beach hazards statement from monday morning through monday
evening for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from monday morning through monday
evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm edt monday for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt monday for
lez144>146.
small craft advisory from 8 am to 10 pm edt monday for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
810 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain is expected this evening and overnight. most
locations will see around an inch with pockets of two inches
or more possible.

- high waves and dangerous currents are expected on lake
michigan beaches monday afternoon into monday night.

- the rest of the week will feature slightly below normal
temperatures and periodic chances for light rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

a low pressure system currently centered over missouri will
continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening,
spreading rain across the forecast area. there was previously
some marginal concern for severe storms south of us-24, but
this has since been pulled farther south given the evolution of
the mcs over southern illinois. while embedded thunder can still
be expected this evening due to weak instability and good bulk
shear exceeding 50 kts, the main story will be moderate to heavy
rain. precipitable water will approach 2 inches, especially to
the south. therefore, 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible across
much of the area. however, uncertainty in convective evolution
and overall modest ingredients continue to preclude a flood
watch here. most of our area missed out on heavy rain wed night
and we should be able to handle a widespread 1" event, even with
pockets of around 2".

scattered, light rain showers likely persist through most of
the day monday as a secondary shortwave moves through the
region, and northerly flow will likely keep highs in the low
70s. we will then see a gradual warmup through the remainder of
the week due to zonal flow aloft. a front will move through
wednesday night/thursday with more showers and thunderstorms,
followed by another wet weather disturbance saturday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 800 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

a couple of short waves are progressing across the southern
great lakes and ohio valley this evening. a larger scale upper
level short wave continues to approach nw indiana this evening
while a strong but smaller scale vort max associated with
complex of thunderstorms moves across central/southern indiana.
the low amplitude nature of the flow is limiting the progress
of the actual sfc boundary to south central indiana. this sfc
front may make some northeast progress later this evening into
east central in, but should remain well south of the terminals.
this should also keep more pronounced mlcape south of the
terminals with just a low probability of an isolated storms
tonight given some weak elevated instability. the heaviest
rainfall late evening overnight may end up setting up along and
north of the i-80 corridor where 850 mb front is expected to
stall out. rain showers will be slow to end late tonight into
early tuesday due to presence of strong low level front and
another upstream vort max digging in from iowa. cigs should
deteriorate to lower end mvfr/ifr late this evening into the
overnight hours, with improvement from nw to se monday morning
into early afternoon as the front slips to the southeast and
drier air builds southward. otherwise, east winds will increase
in gustiness to around 20 knots this evening as easterly
gradients tightens in response to convectively enhanced sfc low
pressure to the south.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from monday morning through late
monday night for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from monday afternoon through late
monday night for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm monday to 5 am edt tuesday for
lmz043.
small craft advisory from 8 am monday to 5 am edt tuesday for
lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
653 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms increase coverage tonight, especially
south of detroit where rainfall totals range from 1.0 to 1.25 inch.
lesser amounts to the north.

- showers linger monday morning then dry weather follows in the
afternoon and evening.

- cooler than normal temperatures continue through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

widespread area of rain on pace to expand across southeast michigan
tonight. initial period of light rain occurs within prevailing vfr
late this evening. rainfall will increase in both coverage and
intensity during the early morning hours, affording a steady decline
in cloud base thru mvfr and into ifr (aside from mbs) as rainfall
rates peak. an associated reduction in visibility at 2-4 miles also
expected. an elevated, isolated thunderstorm plausible within this
environment, but confidence in occurrance remains too low to
highlight attm. prevailing winds emerging from the east/northeast
overnight, then turning modestly gusty on monday. gradual
improvement in conditions as rain tapers off by late morning and
daytime mixing ensues. this will bring a progressive transition from
mvfr back into vfr with a lingering coverage of high based cu for
the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance of thunderstorms tonight
within a more widespread area of showers. these will be elevated in
nature making briefly heavy rainfall the primary hazard.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and most of monday.

* low for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 328 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

discussion...

the hybrid baroclinic cyclone and mesoscale convective system is
currently tracking out of missouri and into illinois early this
afternoon. there has been a strong and very consistent model
consensus that supports a split in the forcing with deep boundary
rooted convection tracking to the southeast across far southern
indiana into portions of kentucky, while seasonably strong 850mb
and 700mb frontogenesis lifts northeastward towards the far western
lake erie basin. confidence is high the main synoptic scale lift and
frontogenesis will favor this northern route as it is driven by
strengthening and very rapidly organizing right entrance region jet
dynamics. the low confidence portion for tonight remains how high up
or what level the frontogenesis will activate. the current nam nest
suggests the center line of the 850mb fgen axis will set up to the
south of the michigan ohio stateline, whereas the 700mb fgen axis
tracks near lenawee and monroe counties while eclipsing wayne
county. consensus of models suggests qpf amounts of 1.00 to 1.33 of
inch will be likely with some peak amounts of 2.00 inch in isolated
locations mainly across south central to southwest lower michigan.
was really agonizing over the decision to issue a flood watch,
however a number of factors argue against it. the factors include:
dry antecedent soil conditions, not expecting to reach 6 hour qpf
amounts exceeding flash flood guidance of 2.25 inches, qpf axis
forecasted south of metro detroit, narrow qpf axis at a county wide
or less, and no connection to true surface based instability
reservoir.

lead deformation/warm advection light rainfall chances begin after
22z across the southern cwa, then increasing significantly after 01-
2z this evening. early activity looks to have a more stratiform look
based on hires depictions. subset of model guidance points to a wave
of low pressure causing a tighter cyclonic circulation to lift
northeastward at monroe county between 8-12z. it is with this
compact convergence forcing that will bring the highest rainfall
rates especially if there is more localized deformation response
along the northern flank. survey of model data suggests a top end of
rainfall rates could be up to 0.50" per hour. breadth of upper level
jet forcing is expected to allow precipitation to expand over much of
the area through the m 46 corridor.

last of shearing deformation is expected to push east of southeast
michigan by/after 18z monday. guidance continues to suggest some
brief potential for a light shower over eastern sections of the
forecast area between 20-23z. difficult to include a pop later in
the day with only a brief opportunity to achieve some reasonable
convective depth with strong subsidence down to 7.0 kft agl. spotty
at best. winds should be come well mixed in the dry advection,
holding northeasterly to northerly at 15 to 25 mph into the early
evening. winds are then expected to lie down quickly after 00-01z.

surface ridge axis will build across southeast michigan tuesday
through midday wednesday. highs are expected to be in the upper 70s
(2 to 5 degrees below normal) with modest surface dewpoints in the
middle 50s.

longwave trough and upper level jet axis settles into the central
great lakes by late wednesday. models are suggesting a very broad
cyclonic circulation which limits predictability because of timing
in internal absolute vorticity maxima. at this vantage point,
interesting to look at the eps dataset which has mean values
relatively close to the 75th percentile. potential exists for a
mainly dry stretch of weather next weekend near normal summerlike
weather.

marine...

a compact low pressure system will travel east across the ohio
valley tonight into tomorrow morning. this will elevate east to
southeast flow across lake erie, bringing wind gust potential around
25 knots along with increasing wave heights. a small craft advisory
remains in place. some isolated wind gusts 20 to 25 knots will be
possible across lake st. clair overnight, with lower magnitude wind
speeds across lake huron and the saginaw bay. this system will also
bring widespread rain, heavy at times, across the southern great
lakes. wind direction backs north to northwest in the wake of the
low through the early week period as high pressure builds in.
lighter winds are expected tuesday and wednesday.

hydrology...

compact low pressure system will bring widespread rain to southeast
michigan this evening and tonight. total rainfall amounts of 1.00 to
1.25 inch appear likely for far southern sections of cwa with the
potential for isolated amounts of up to 2.00 inches. peak of the
rainfall is expected between 3am to 8am. with no expectation for
rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance, flooding impacts are
expected to be limited to ponding of water on roadways and flooding
of poor drainage areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 4 am to 5 pm edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......cb
hydrology....cb

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.