Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
208 am edt sun may 3 2026

.what has changed...
our day shift issued a frost advisory and freeze warning, which is
in effect from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt sunday for all of
northern oh and nw pa. based on latest trends in observations,
including radar data, and nwp model guidance, periodic sprinkles
and/or snow flurries are expected through about daybreak sunday as a
shortwave trough axis moves se`ward across our region late this
evening through about daybreak. this precip will primarily result
from moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the shortwave trough
axis, releasing weak potential instability in and near the 850-700
mb layer. in addition, lake-effect sprinkles and/or snow flurries
are possible through about daybreak sunday in north-central oh and
especially ne oh and nw pa as an unusually-cold mean low-level flow
backs from nw`erly to w`erly over/downwind of ~11c lake erie, yet
weak lake-induced cape wanes gradually via the following: low-level
dry air advection on the synoptic-scale; a lowering subsidence
inversion accompanying a ridge at the surface and aloft that will
build behind the shortwave trough. however, the chance of measurable
precipitation and measurable snowfall remains very low, so elected
to maintain pop`s of mainly less than 15% through daybreak sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) some improvements coming to the temperatures into monday.

2) strong frontal system midweek brings more rain to the area and
temperatures back down into the 50s and likely not drying out until
after thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
frost/freeze expected tonight.

while the main upper trough bringing chilly and wet weather to the
region the past couple of days exits, high pressure moving west to
east south of the cwa will finally get east enough to bring a warm
advective pattern. 850mb temperatures that have been below zero will
creep above zero with low level warm air advection for monday and
tuesday, and will see temperature improvements each day,
accordingly. some low end shower activity is possible sunday night
in some short lived isentropic lift mainly at 290k. an upper level
wave brings shower/storm chances ahead of a strengthening frontal
system late monday into tuesday. could see temperatures in the
70s in places on monday.

key message 2...
ahead of the cold front, showers and storms to become more
numerous. as the front moves into the southern great lakes, forward
progress of the system will likely be slowed as waves of surface low
pressure develop along the front. this will serve to lengthen the
amount of time that the rain chances settle over the cwa as those
waves of low pressure keep the front from pushing eastward. high
pops will linger with the front through wednesday before finally
exiting, only to be followed by a trailing upper trough axis
thursday as broad low pressure aloft reclaims the great lakes.
temperatures back below normal and into the 50s for the end of the
week before finally showing slow improvement again into the
weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
clouds are clearing with high pressure located over the ohio
valley. the high shifts south today which will allow winds to
increase with gust of 22-28 knots developing after 15z. wind
gusts will drop off towards 00z for inland locations in the east
like cak/yng while most other terminals maintain gusty winds
tonight. if winds drop off in nw ohio, may need to add some low
level wind sheer as speeds increase to 45 knots near 2k feet.

otherwise some cumulus cloud around 5-7k feet is expected this
afternoon with coverage of vfr clouds increasing after 22z.
there is some potential for a few light rain showers tonight as
a shortwave passes aloft but coverage is low with little to no
impacts.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms monday afternoon/night followed by increasing
coverage of precipitation tuesday afternoon and night and
again on thursday.

&&

.marine...
some lingering 2 footers out there early this afternoon after a
push of 10-15kt northerly winds this morning, but those are
decreasing with tranquil marine conditions taking over. west-
southwest winds increase modestly to 10-15kt overnight tonight,
trending a bit stronger (15-20kt) on sunday. winds may exceed
20kt at times sunday and especially sunday night, building 3-5
foot waves in the open waters. south-southwest winds briefly
slacken to 10-15kt during the day monday, increasing to 15-25kt
again monday night into tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. winds flip northerly behind the front late tuesday into
tuesday night, diminishing into wednesday. the impression is
that small craft advisories may be needed at times for stronger
southwest winds late sunday/sunday night, and again monday night
and tuesday through the frontal passage. any advisories would
be marginal and future shifts will evaluate the potential need.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz003-006>009-
011-012-017-018-027-036-089.
freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for ohz010-013-014-
019>023-028>033-037-038-047.
pa...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for paz001.
freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...10
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 030636
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
236 am edt sun may 3 2026

.key messages...

- brief warmup and turning breezy today into monday.

- there is a chance (20-40%) for scattered showers this afternoon.

- chances for scattered showers and storms (40-60%) increase
mid afternoon monday into monday night. a few storms could
become strong to severe (wind/hail).

- turing cooler with periods of rain tuesday into tuesday night.

- cool midweek through next weekend with occasional chances for
rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 am edt sun may 3 2026

increasing southwesterly flow, with gusts 25-35 mph by this
afternoon, will bring temperatures more typical for early may
with highs generally reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s. there
also remains a ~3 hour window for scattered rain showers this
afternoon as a weak impulse and plume of mid-level moisture
progress through in wnw flow aloft. continued to hold pops in
the 20-40% range given the relatively weak forcing and dry low
levels. dry with clear skies then into tonight and monday
morning in wake of this wave, with wind gusts quickly diminishing
this evening as the atmosphere decouples.

ongoing warm/moist advection in southwesterly flow, preceding an
upper level trough digging south into the upper midwest, should
boost monday afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 70s, and sbcape
up to 1000 j/kg. a weak warm frontal feature lifting into the area
in tandem with a lead perturbation approaching from the mid ms
valley may be enough to generate scattered convection (40-60%)
mid afternoon on monday into monday evening. spc continues to
have the area highlighted in the marginal risk (level 1 out of
5) for this activity given modest shear/buoyancy profiles, with
lacking boundary layer moisture and nebulous forcing limiting a
more organized severe threat.

attention later monday night through tuesday night turns to a trend
back to cooler temps and periods of rain/embedded thunder as a slow
moving baroclinic zone sags southeast through the local area. this
could be soaking rain (1" plus) for some given the slow movement
with motions parallel to the frontal boundary, potentially leading
to river rises and localized ponding issues.

blocky pattern with broad longwave troughing in place will keep
temperatures on the cool side midweek through next weekend. as
for precipitation chances, the main frontal zone and corridor of
deeper moisture likely settles well off the southeast by
wednesday and beyond, though periodic rain shower chances will
linger through much of the period as several shortwaves rotate
through in cool cyclonic flow.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1217 am edt sun may 3 2026

vfr conditions will persist through the taf period, with the
main item of interest being increasingly breezy southwest winds
developing during the day on sunday. gusts 25 knots plus are
anticipated this afternoon. a brief 2-3 hour window for light
elevated showers still remains possible (20-30% for measurable
rain) this afternoon otherwise as a weak mid level impulse
tracks through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for inz006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for miz079>081.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1153 pm edt sat may 2 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect tonight from midnight to 8am.

- breezy with moderating temperatures and some scattered showers
sunday.

- abnormally warm monday with chances for showers and some embedded
thunderstorms, more so late monday into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

se mi is between ohio valley surface high pressure and the next low
pressure system in northern ontario late tonight. light sw wind
between the systems will solidify during the morning under a gradual
increase in vfr mid and high clouds. a late morning to early
afternoon chance of light rain showers shows a northward shift in
the mbs area by late morning. there is a substantial virga footprint
toward dtw until a stray light shower materializes late in the day.
sw wind becomes the weather highlight as gusts approach 30 knots
during the afternoon still under vfr mid level clouds sunday
evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 351 pm edt sat may 2 2026

discussion...

high pressure centered over the plains is extending northeastward
into the great lakes under a broad upper level trough resulting in a
cool and cloudy day. highs today only reaching around 50f will set
the stage for another cool night once the diurnally driven cu mixes
out this evening. issued a frost advisory from midnight to 8am
tonight given the high pressure overhead, clearing skies this
evening, lingering thermal trough, and dewpoints falling into the
mid-upper 20s. still not a slam dunk advisory as an approaching
shortwave trough over the midwest will bring a developing warm front
up towards se mi which could bring some mid cloud back in early
sunday morning. in addition winds don`t look to go calm and will
start increasing sunday morning. still should be enough opportunity
for some frost development tonight before temps trend warmer to
start the week.

the weak mid level shortwave will rotate around the broader upper
low (centered to the north) and through lower mi sunday. a
developing warm front will lift through the area early providing
some forcing along with theta e advection along with increasing
winds as low level jet ramps up to around 35 knots. best chances for
rain will be across the north with much of the southern half of the
cwa likely remaining dry through the day. mixing depths to around
7kft will tap into the llj which will lead to a gusty afternoon with
winds to around 30 mph. the increasing southwesterly winds will
provide a boost in temps with highs back up to around 60. the wave
shears apart overnight with the best focus passing both north and
south of the local area so shower chances remain, but probably more
of scattered activity at best.

monday will be quiet in terms of precip and warm with temps in the
70s as the upper low pivots around the pattern becomes briefly zonal
with slight ridging until the next stronger trough moves into the
region on monday night into tuesday. warm sector slides into
southern mi after 00z tuesday with the nose of the next llj moving
across the state line. this looks to accompany a low spinning up
along the cold front resulting in increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. instability climbs with mucape reaching 1000-1500
j/kg. pwats rise just above 1 inch with surface dewpoints topping
out around 50f. spc day 3 outlook has se mi in a general
thunderstorm risk with sliver of the area south of i94 in a marginal
risk. main risk looks to be elevated thunderstorms producing large
hail but a few strong gusts would be possible. the front remains
draped across the area tuesday, finally pushing east overnight so
rain chances will continue through mid week. thermal trough remains
overhead through the end of the week which will direct weak mid
level waves through the area keeping chances of precip around.

marine...

a diffuse area of high pressure will continue to build in across the
great lakes today which will retain lighter north to northwesterly
flow along with low-end chances for an isolated rain shower. a warm
front will move through tomorrow which will back winds to the south-
southwest as wind speeds elevate through the day. locally stronger
winds will be found within the saginaw bay through central lake
huron given the favorable fetch with localized gust potential around
30 knots, but all nearshore locations will approach or achieve gusts
of 20 to 25 knots. small craft advisories have been issued as a
result. wind speeds diminish late tomorrow night through monday
morning, but return with similar intensity during daylight hours
which will likely result in another round of small craft advisories.
rain showers will be possible tomorrow and monday with a very low
chance for a rumble of thunder.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt sunday for miz047>049-053>055-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm edt sunday for lhz441>443.

small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm edt sunday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm edt sunday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.