Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
055
fxus61 kcle 051142
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
742 am edt fri jun 5 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) one last dry day and continued warming.

2.) showers and storm chances return friday night through early saturday
night.

3.) upper level ridge builds in through the middle of next week with
more summer-like warmth.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a bit more warming today with return flow into the region and 850mb
temperatures climbing into the upper teens. with sun and a dry
ground, this will translate to widespread upper 80s across the
region ahead of a cold front that will be approaching from the west
for the first rain chances in several days beginning friday
night.

key message 2...
flow aloft will become cyclonic tonight with a surface prefrontal
trough moving through, sparking the first chances for showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms in several days. during the overnight
period, instability will be hard to come by, and elevated, making
thunderstorms not expected on a scale more than isolated despite an
increase in the low level flow. different story into saturday with
some daytime heating aiding in the development of instability that
will end up closer to the surface. some risk for severe
thunderstorms here with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kts to go with
around 1000j/kg cape and increases in surface/low level dewpoints.
in the end, damaging winds will be the greatest threat for saturday
with the cold front coming through late saturday into saturday
night, taking the pops with it by sunday morning.

key message 3...
quick return to upper level ridging early next week with
temperatures on the rise again and a two day dry period before
getting back into pops midweek with another trough aloft. heat will
begin to build with another upper level ridge into the end of next
week with what may be considered the first hot and humid weather of
the season as dewpoints could eclipse the 70f mark.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is expected to persist through the bulk of the taf period. a
weakening cluster of convection will push east towards
terminals late tonight into early saturday morning, though
anticipate much of the convection to remain near the lakeshore.
have maintained the prob30 for this weakening convection at ktol
between 00z/sat and 03z/sat. another round of convection is
expected to develop saturday afternoon and evening and have
introduced a prob30 tsra line in the 30-hr kcle taf.

light southwesterly winds 5-8 knots this morning will increase
to 12-15 knots by friday afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots
possible. a lake breeze will likely shift winds west-northwest
at keri friday afternoon.

outlook...limited non-vfr in a cluster of weakening showers and
thunderstorms tonight into early saturday. non-vfr possible
again saturday afternoon and evening as thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.marine...
southwesterly winds generally remain between 5-15 knots through
this evening before increasing to the 15-20 tonight range
tonight through saturday morning. a cold front will move across
the lake on saturday evening allowing for winds to turn
northerly while decreasing to 10 knots or less by sunday
morning as high pressure builds overhead. light and variable
flow is expected as the high remains in control on sunday. winds
will favor an easterly component monday while remaining in the
5-15 knots range ahead of an approaching low pressure system
that will enter the upper ohio valley by mid-week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
060
fxus63 kiwx 051043
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
643 am edt fri jun 5 2026

.key messages...

- breezy with increasing chances (40-90 percent) for showers and
storms today into tonight, highest chances west of i 69 today
then spreading eastward overnight. there is a marginal risk
for strong to severe storms between 4pm and 1am et, with
damaging winds and large hail the main threats. confidence in
severe weather occurring is low.

- periodic chances (60-90 percent) for showers and thunderstorms
saturday into saturday evening. there is a marginal to slight
risk for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening,
best potential in nw ohio. damaging winds and large hail are
the main threats. confidence in severe weather occurring is
medium.

- humid through early next week with high temperatures in the
80s. there are chances for showers and thunderstorms through
the period, best chances (30-60 percent) southwest on sun/mon,
then becoming more widespread (55-70 percent) tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 536 am edt fri jun 5 2026

no major changes from previous discussion beyond the adjustment of
today`s marginal risk to areas west of i 69. saturday`s risk remains
the same. confidence is still low with models varying quite a bit in
regards to the available instability/moisture earlier on in the
afternoon. we could see some showers/storms between 11-3pm near lake
mi and in our far western cwa--however the best chances arrive
closer to 4-6 pm edt depending on the model. ingredients for severe
in terms of the best moisture, surface instability, and shear come
together closer or shortly after sunset with amplification of llj
and sharper wave. the hrrr (which seems to be doing reasonably well
as of this writing in terms of placement of current precip) brings
an initial batch of showers/isolated storms between 4-8pm et that
decay rapidly as they progress eastward (stopping short of i 69).
behind that with the stronger wave around 8 pm-1 am et another batch
comes in near lake mi and continues eastward, but intensity wanes
and it becomes more scattered convection until the llj really
focuses later overnight...which would be less severe and more of a
heavy rain/lightning threat. the best mid level lapse rates come in
after sunset in the west, and that is usually what we need in order
to have a severe threat (7-8c/km vs 5-6c/km earlier in day). still
as previous discussion mentioned, we do have dcape that develops in
the afternoon so if storms manage to develop early enough and move
into that environment, we could see some damaging winds and large
hail.

saturday still looks like a reasonable severe weather threat, with
our entire area in either a marginal or slight risk for severe
weather (slight risk remains in nw oh). still thinking medium
confidence as we have somewhat more favorable timing but there are
many questions regarding the extent of morning convection/how fast
we can clear that and associated cloud debris to regain some
instability. where exactly storms fire (what lingering boundaries
remain, what heating differentials develop between clearing/clouds)
and how widespread they get is still in question. we do have better
dynamics and an incoming cold front with this set up (towards the
later afternoon/evening), with sfc cape around 1000-1500 j/kg or
more and 0-6km shear of around 35-40kts depending on the model. as
spc`s discussion for the outlook alludes to, this could give us more
organized storm modes like bowing line segments and supercells
(maybe)-which can give us the greater wind/hail threat. the tornado
threat is east of our area into ohio at this point. of course, heavy
rain and frequent lightning are also threats. one item of concern is
we seem to loose our steeper mid level lapse rates as we go into the
late afternoon/evening (still around 6-7c/km in nw oh at times).
despite this, still think we have a decent shot at strong/severe
storms.

later this weekend into early next week is tricky as it will depend
on how the upper level ridge/omega block develops and where exactly
our cold front ends up on sunday (could be far enough southwest that
it`s out of our area and we end up dry). a warm front lifts north
through tuesday which will bring us better potential for
precipitation and storms into the evening, then a decaying surface
low/cold front through wednesday. have a broad range of pops, with
the best chances in the far west and south sun-mon, and then
expanding cwa-wide for tue/wed (45-70%). it will be humid with highs
in the 80s (some locations in mid-upper 80s, approaching 90).

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 635 am edt fri jun 5 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period, with
potential for drops to mvfr/ifr cigs/vis in heavier showers or
storms. not much of a chance from the previous forecast outside
of delays in timing at kfwa (best potential after 3z for
shower/storm activity). for ksbn we could see some showers this
morning with moisture transport increasing with the llj (light
showers over lake mi as of this writing). upper level wave moves
through by late morning/early afternoon, though models still
disagree on best potential start time. for now have rain/vcts
starting at 18z (best storm chances after 20z). ongoing rain and
a few storms upstream near krfd/kmsn/kmke will progress
eastward, with likelihood of thunder increasing with better
instability in the afternoon/evening. have ceilings between
5-10kft at the moment, intermixed with high clouds at around
25kft. ksbn drops to persistent mvfr after 9z (sat am) and kfwa
lingers at low-end vfr as we get enhancement to showers/storms
with the llj overnight. kept all t-storm activity to vcts/prob30
groups given lower confidence in timing/placement of storms. otherwise,
southwest winds gust to 25-30kts through the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
139
fxus63 kdtx 051104
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
704 am edt fri jun 5 2026

.key messages...

- periods of scattered to numerous rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.

- additional showers and storms possible early saturday afternoon.
isolated storms may be strong to severe, capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- a hot and stormy pattern is becoming increasingly likely during
the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

increasing moisture transport will continue through today starting
with the noted increase in morning mid clouds across northern in/oh
and parts of lower mi this morning. these clouds will remain vfr
into early afernoon as coverage increases. a sw to ne axis of
precipitation ahead cold front will bring shower activity towards
mbs to start around 17z. moisture axis will move southeast/east
through the terminal corridor evetually reaching the southern metro
terminals towards 23-00z. enough instability will be available for
some embedded thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon, so have included
tempo groups. mvfr ceilings are then likely to spread across the area
this evening into tonight with continued chances for light scattered
showers during the early morning hours.

d21/dtw convection... showers are likely with a chance of embedded
thunderstorms toward 00z this evening. severe weather potential
appears low this evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms this evening.

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 am edt fri jun 5 2026

discussion...

quiet start to early june comes to an end today as a series of
shortwaves begin to break down the existing ridge. a more active
pattern is already observed upstream where clusters of convection
are ongoing: one cluster from southern iowa to northeast kansas and
another over south dakota. the leading wave is associated with a low
level trough and strong low level jet that will draw moisture
initially into the saginaw valley early this afternoon and the rest
of se michigan this evening. daytime impact will be an increase in
cloud cover with highs near 80 degrees for the saginaw valley versus
mid-upper 80s in the detroit metro area where sunshine is expected
for most of the day.

moisture transport peaks between approximately 21z-06z tonight (5pm-
2am), tied to the passage of a convective vort max and a lagging
trough axis. remnants of the midwest convection reach the saginaw
valley mid to late afternoon, but ultimately outpace the theta-e
axis and lose convective vigor given only a few hundred j/kg of
mucape available. coverage then increases this evening, especially
north of i-69, as the trough approaches. poor lapse rates limit
updraft strength, while models pull the two waves out of phase to
limit organized convective potential this evening and overnight.
that said, mechanical mixing of the strong low level jet winds could
result in gusty showers/thunderstorms (40+ mph). other factor to
consider is heavy rainfall potential, which will be focused again
over the saginaw valley/thumb as the trough passes overhead.
consistent hi-res signal for over an inch of rain north of i-69
before expanding across the rest of se michigan late in the evening.
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across the north.

much lower predictability exists heading into the overnight hours
and saturday, mainly in terms of thunderstorm initiation and coverage.
first feature in question is the south dakota convective wave, and
how that may interfere with otherwise expected subsidence/drying
aloft. there is also plenty of nocturnal convective activity being
triggered in the hi-res guidance, which is often not handled well by
models. uncertainty compounds saturday morning with the arrival of a
deep synoptic wave, which quickly steepens lapse rates to 6.5-7.0
c/km and spreads a broad region of ascent over se michigan. most
solutions project the wave to reach the detroit metro region around
peak heating (early-mid afternoon), which will be the favored
time/location for any convective redevelopment. the wave also
supplies plenty of deep layer shear, supporting organized convection
potential if enough instability stays in tact to sustain strong
updrafts. latest trends have pushed the greatest thunderstorm coverage
south of the ohio border, although the conditionality of this setup
keeps se michigan within a marginal risk for severe weather saturday.
large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

heights then begin to rise rapidly saturday night as longwave
ridging re-establishes itself. dry weather thus returns for sunday-
monday while the ridge axis builds overhead. h5 heights push into
the climatological 90th percentile and remain there throughout the
week, leading to well above normal temperatures. ensemble
interquartile max t values range from upper 80s to low 90s by late
next week alongside unobstructed gulf return flow. thunderstorm
chances thus accompany increasingly warm and muggy conditions for
much of the work week, with heavy rainfall potential already
highlighted in the day 5 excessive rainfall outlook.

marine...

warm southerly flow will keep wind speeds in check (mainly up around
20 knots) today due to the increased low level stability. a surface
low tracking through the central great lakes this evening will bring
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. expected
light, mostly westerly winds on saturday. a weak cold front will
sink southward late in the day, serving as the focal point for
scattered, potentially marginally severe thunderstorms, with the
highest probability over lake st. clair and lake erie. very light
northeast flow and dry conditions will follow for saturday night and
sunday. warm weather returns early next week, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms on tuesday.

hydrology...

clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to track west to
east across southeast mi this afternoon through tonight. another
round of showers and storms is possible early saturday afternoon.
most areas will receive a quarter inch of rainfall or less, but
there will be the potential for localized areas (mainly north of i-
69) to see up to 1.50 inches. the extended period of dry conditions
recently suggests the potential for flooding is low, but isolated
flooding will be possible if any of the higher amounts affect the
typical flood prone locations in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......sf
hydrology....mv/tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.