Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 022001
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
401 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

.what has changed...
there are no significant changes to the forecast and general
messaging on expectations through this weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) a warm front has lifted across the area today with
temperatures climbing back into the 60s and 70s. the next round
of showers and thunder potential will move in from the west
this evening and overnight, with a minimal severe weather risk
for nwoh.

2) a frontal boundary will stall out friday and lift back
northward as a warm front late friday night or early saturday
morning. additional scattered showers and possible thunder will
be around friday and friday night, with a minimal severe weather
risk for areas south of the ohio turnpike.

3) a strong cold front will move across the region saturday
evening. widespread showers and possible thunder will accompany
the cold front late saturday into overnight with a minimal
severe weather risk for most of northern ohio and nwpa.

4) the weather pattern will shift towards colder temperatures
and below average sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

a warm front has lifted northward early today and temperatures
have climbed into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. as of early
afternoon, the warm front was located right along the immediate
lakeshore. there is a little delay with the warmer temperatures
along the immediate lakeshore due to influence of the cold
marine layer. but eventually the push of warm air advection will
win the battle for the lakeshore and temperatures will climb
later this afternoon. the next storm system to impact the great
lakes region is tracking through the cornbelt of the midwest
this afternoon. a surface low will track through the central
great lakes tonight and drag a trailing cold front into our area
late tonight and friday morning. scattered showers and possible
thunder will move in from west to east during the late evening
and overnight hours. the better severe weather setup and
thermodynamics for organized convection will remain west of our
local area. there is a marginal risk for a couple strong to
severe thunderstorms to try to make it into nwoh later this
evening, with an isolated damaging wind threat. but overall, we
are expecting a weakening line of showers and general
thunderstorms to move in from west to east across the area later
this evening and overnight.


key message #2:

the cold front will run out of upper level support to fully move
through our area friday morning. it will eventually stall out
across northern or central ohio on friday before it lifts back
northward as a warm front late friday night. this boundary will
be the focus for additional scattered showers and possible
thunder friday and friday night. it doesn`t appear to be a
washout for friday into the evening but pops will be between 40
and 60 percent with the higher probabilities along and south of
the highway 30 corridor. there will be a marginal risk for a
couple strong to severe storms to develop friday into friday
night with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the main
threat. locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any
training of storms over the same area. temperatures will be back
into the 70s on friday.


key message #3:

a stronger upper level trough will move from the central plains
into the great lakes and ohio valley saturday through sunday. a
low pressure system will track across the great lakes saturday
and saturday night with a strong cold front. we may have some
lingering scattered showers and isolated thunder with a warm
front lifting northward early saturday morning. there will be a
lull in pops and rain chances during the midday and early
afternoon on saturday. it will be warm and breezy saturday with
high temps topping out in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.
the strong cold front will start to push into nwoh by early
evening with band of showers and embedded thunder along and
ahead of the boundary. there is a marginal risk for strong to
severe storms with the cold front saturday evening with the main
threat being damaging winds and large hail. an isolated tornado
threat can`t be ruled out as well. the general timing of storm
with the cold front will be between 5 pm and 12 am from west to
east saturday evening. once again, locally heavy rainfall could
be possible and a minor flood threat.

key message #4:

a big shift in the weather pattern will occur this weekend as an
upper level trough will develop over the great lakes and ohio
valley sunday through the middle of next week. the first cold
front will move through saturday night with the initial drop in
temperatures for sunday. high temps will only be in the 40s
sunday and monday. another secondary cold front will sweep
across the great lakes monday evening with a reinforcing shot of
colder weather. there will be a couple chances for scattered,
light lake effect rain and or snow showers sunday night through
tuesday which will mainly impact the snowbelt region of
neoh/nwpa. below average temps are expected through tuesday
night before temperatures moderate by mid-week.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
conditions are quickly improving to vfr across the taf sites
this afternoon as a warm front lifts north through the area.
main concern late this evening and overnight will be an
approaching area of decaying showers and potentially
thunderstorms from the west. a brief period of gusty winds may
accompany the showers and thunderstorms at tol. otherwise, apart
from eri, went with vcsh to cover this area of eastward-moving
showers as confidence remains low on the overall thunderstorm
coverage. the current vcsh mention may need to be replaced with
vcts if confidence increases. brief mvfr and/or ifr vsbys may
accompany the area of showers and thunderstorms.

winds behind the warm front are out of the south this afternoon,
10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts up to 25 knots. the east to
northeast winds at tol/eri will become south over the next
several hours. a period of marginal llws is possible at all taf
sites late this evening and overnight as a strong 2kft 210 to
220-direction llj of 45 to 50 knots develops across the area.
the llws threat will decrease from west to east early friday
morning. winds may begin to shift towards the west to southwest
early friday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms friday afternoon into friday night. non-vfr more
likely on saturday in showers and thunderstorms along a cold
front. low ceilings may linger through sunday. non-vfr may
return on monday in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.marine...
elevated south to southwest winds of near 20 knots will return
across the lake tonight, though given the overnight timing and
the brief period of the stronger winds, opted against a small
craft advisory at this time. winds will briefly shift towards
the west on friday, 10 to 15 knots, as a warm front settles just
south of the lake. the next concern for hazardous marine
conditions will be on sunday as a cold front ushers in west
winds of 20 knots across lake erie. a small craft advisory will
likely be needed. west winds will persist across lake erie on
monday, though diminishing slightly into the 10 to 15 knots
range. stronger west to northwest winds of around 20 knots may
arrive monday night into tuesday.

showers and thunderstorms are also likely saturday afternoon
and evening across lake erie ahead of a cold front which could
pose a strong wind threat.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 021820
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
220 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

.key messages...

- a wind advisory is in effect through 8 pm edt for northern
indiana and lower michigan. southerly wind gusts to 45 mph
expected.

- severe weather is possible between 5-11 pm edt. there is a
slight risk for severe weather with damaging winds as the main
threat. an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- flooding concerns persist through the weekend with additional
rounds of rain and storms friday into saturday.

- mild with highs in the 70s through saturday. cooler, in the
40s, to begin the new week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1253 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

a surface low over eastern kansas continues to be our focus for a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon. critically,
a warm front is gradually lifting into the southern portions of our
forecast area as dew points rise into the mid-50s. south of this
warm front, stratus is clearing as well. guidance is generally
handling this moisture advection well, which bolsters confidence in
the guidance. the source region for storms later today, west-central
illinois, remains socked in beneath clouds for the time being. yet,
href members and hourly cams remain in fair agreement that
conditions will improve, the stratus and cap will break, resulting
in a broken line of thunderstorms over northwest in near 5pm edt.

in general, ingredients remain disjointed with departing 500mb and
850 mb jets placing our area in the right entrance region briefly,
along with waning mucape below 1,000 j/kg which can be enough when
paired with 45-50 knots of bulk shear (seen here). 0-1 km helicity
is supportive for tornadoes, but again, the holistic environment is
disjointed/marginal. damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and heavy
rainfall remain the primary concerns from 5pm and 11pm edt. high
confidence in a weakening trend as any storms near the i-69 corridor
due to departing upper-level support and waning instability.
precipitable water values remain high, conducive for downpours, but
area-wide rainfall amounts are forecast to be 0.25-0.50". lastly,
the inherited wind advisory remains on track but limited by existing
cloudiness. upstream, wind gusts are increasing (about 40-42mph in
central il).

active weather persists both friday and saturday. tonight`s cold
front has minimal effect as strong ridging off the outer banks
encourages warm, southerly flow. meanwhile, over the central us,
cyclogenesis is underway bringing another warm front through our
area friday. this favors rain primarily south of us-24 that
gradually lifts north friday. the cold front then sweeps through
saturday. preceding rain in the warm sector and lagging jet dynamics
look to limit any severe weather risk on saturday. however, an
unseasonably moist air mass continues to threaten locally heavy
rainfall resulting in 0.5 to 1" of rain friday night through
saturday.

sharply colder sunday and monday with highs in the 40s to near 50.
this remains the case on tuesday as a secondary surge of cold,
canadian air becomes established via expansive high pressure. a
clipper system precedes this, brining a 20%-30% chance of rain or
snow showers monday night across michigan. look for warmer
conditions wednesday and beyond.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 220 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

a low level warm front continues to surge northward across
northern indiana this afternoon. this front is in the process of
clearing kfwa as of 18z and will lift north of ksbn in the next
1 to 2 hours. a sharp improvement in the ifr cigs will be noted
with frontal passage along with a veering of low level to the
south. better mixing in wake of warm frontal passage will result
in south afternoon wind gusts as high as 35+ knots. an area of
pre-frontal forcing across northeast illinois will likely be the
focal point of shower and thunderstorm development toward the
20z timeframe and these storms will shift east across northern
indiana between 21-01z. gusty winds of 40+ mph may accompany
the stronger storms this afternoon into early this evening.
waning instability this evening should weaken these
thunderstorms as they approach i-69 corridor after 01z. the approach of
cold frontal boundary may also allow isolated showers and
storms to affect ksbn late evening, but convective coverage will
likely be in diminishing state by this time. strong southerly
pre-frontal winds combined with some sfc decoupling should also
allow some llws conditions being met tonight. mainly dry
conditions are expected late tonight into friday morning before
stalled frontal boundary may allow for new convection after this
forecast valid period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>080-177-
277.
marine...gale warning until 10 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 022010
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
410 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening and overnight.
scattered storms may be severe with wind gusts to 60 to 70 mph and
localized heavy rainfall the main threats.

- additional showers and thunderstorms are likely friday night and
saturday. some storms may be strong and produce heavy rainfall.

- mild conditions friday and saturday, then trending cooler again
sunday into early next week.

&&

.discussion...

low pressure over ia tracks northeast into the straits tonight and
its surface warm front is currently positioned from near new buffalo
along the state line to between toledo and findlay. persistent
easterly component of low-level flow holds the stable marine layer
over much se mi into the evening and delays the arrival of surface
based instability, holding a dry forecast for the next few hours.
meanwhile strengthening southwest gradient wind will cause the warm
front to make farther northward progress across western and central
lower mi, resulting in an instability gradient oriented nw to se
across central lower mi through this evening. the upper shortwave
driving the surface low has a negative tilt with strong upper jet
divergence aiding in convective development along a pre-frontal
trough over southern il. this convection is forecast to track
northeast across lower mi through this evening, with initial
multicell storms favored to congeal into a linear mode with current
trends tracking it through se mi between 8pm and midnight.

buoyancy will be the limiting factor for severe weather tonight as
the resident stability will be slow to dislodge, and there is
expected to be a general weakening trend as convection arrives.
however, there remains a threat for damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph given the powerful kinematic background. the inbound llj in the
warm sector will be characterized by 65 kt flow at 850mb and 50 to
60 kt down to 925mb or roughly 2 kft agl. if storms arriving from
the west can stay rooted in the surface layer, descending parcels
will be capable of dragging the higher momentum to the surface.
highest confidence for this to occur is west of us-23 with
decreasing probability with eastward extent given increasing
stability. a higher moisture environment with pwat rising to near
1.40" brings potential for localized heavy downpours as well. storm
motion at nearly 60 kt will keep this activity transient and
mitigate flooding concerns for most areas, but some locales around
the saginaw valley may see repeated storms and with antecedent wet
conditions this additional rainfall may cause localized minor
flooding tonight. low probability for an embedded brief tornado also
exists near the warm front/cape gradient where srh will be maximized
as convection moves in. this is particularly true if any segments
deviate to the right of the prevailing nne storm motion.

as the warm sector passes through overnight, neutral thermal
profiles allow for gusts of 30 to 40 mph at times before the llj
moves out. the cold front passes through friday morning with little
ascent left as the parent system quickly tracks into western quebec.
some lighter showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be
possible, then clearing skies and weakening wind results in a
pleasant friday afternoon with temps in the 70s south and 50s north.

the next system takes a very similar track from the midwest/mid
mississippi valley into the northern great lakes on saturday. the
warm front will be positioned south of the stateline late friday
before being forced northward friday night. brief residence of the
warm sector follows early saturday before the cold front sweeps
through later in the day. instability will again be a limiting
factor for stronger convection, and the current swody3 outlines se
mi in the general thunder category. localized heavy rainfall will be
a possibility and wpc shows all of se mi in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

a cooler pattern commences sunday into the early part of next week
as longwave troughing sets up over the great lakes. a clipper tracks
through on monday bringing a chance of rain and snow showers, but
otherwise drier conditions will prevail during this period. another
frontal system in the great lakes vicinity brings increasing
potential for another active period during the late week.

&&

.marine...

a modest gradient exists over the central great lakes today,
positioned between approaching low pressure from the plains and
stalled high pressure over quebec. a warm front associated with the
low has been slow to lift into the southern waterways, keeping
mixing depths very shallow this afternoon. still, a period of on-
shore flow brings elevated waves to saginaw bay and the southern
lake huron shoreline, where small craft advisories remain in effect.
gusts across portions of northern lake huron will appoach gales this
evening, but the lack of persistence precludes a last minute gale
warning. the warm front precedes the track of the low tonight,
toward the straits, with winds veering ssw with time, from south to
north. the system`s low-level jet, featuring 60 knot flow below 3
kft, will struggle to mix down given low level stability, therefore
no additional gale headlines were issued. some strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms will affect some waterways tonight, with the
main threat being strong gusty winds in excess of 34 knots.

drier conditions with decreasing winds expected friday, after the
system`s cold front clears through. however, unsettled weather
returns friday night and saturday with a similarly tracking warm
front and surface low. this should bring renewed modest easterly
winds, areas of gusts approaching gales, and additional
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong or marginally severe.

&&

.hydrology...

early day showers and thunderstorms brought rainfall amounts ranging
between 0.10 and 0.60" with the higher amounts focused across the
saginaw valley and i-69 corridor. additional showers and storms will
track across the area this evening into tonight. an increasingly
moisture-laden environment will support heavy downpours at times,
but fast storm motion of over 50 mph will limit residence time for
most areas. the exception will be the saginaw valley where some
potential for some training storms exists. additional rainfall
amounts through tonight for this area are forecast to range between
0.30 and 0.80" and localized flash flooding will be possible. areas
farther south are forecast to receive up to 0.30" which will limit
flooding concerns.

another period of showers and storms is expected friday night into
saturday with additional rainfall amounts forecast to range between
0.50 and 1.00". today`s and saturday`s rainfall will cause rises on
area rivers and bring potential to reach flood stage, with highest
confidence across the saginaw valley. river crests are forecast to
occur this weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 158 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

aviation...

cold easterly flow directed into southeast michigan off of the lake
aggregate resulted in ifr conditions with low ceilings and light
rain this morning. southwesterly flow above 1.5 kft agl will bring
significant moisture/thetae advection into the area moving forward
this afternoon. despite a lack of snow cover, expectations are for
lifr to potentially lifr conditions with low ceiling and fog this
afternoon. nose of low level jet will push into the state at/just
before 00z from southwest to northeast. turbulent mixing should force
wind directions to change and help in the erosion of the surface
based inversion below .75 kft agl this evening. prefrontal
thunderstorm activity, some could be strong to severe, will then be
possible primarily in the 01-04z time window. prevailing southwest
winds of 20 to 30 knots is expected tonight with locally higher
gusts with thunderstorm activity. showers will be possible 06-13z
before skies clear by late morning.

for dtw... any thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be
elevated. strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible between 01-
04z this evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today, moderate this evening,
then high late tonight and friday morning.

* moderate to high for thunderstorms this evening, and low late
tonight.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt friday for lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory until 10 am edt friday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
hydrology....tf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.