Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 am edt wed mar 18 2026

.what has changed...
lake effect snow showers remain on track to end early this
morning as they shift offshore of ne ohio and nw pa, setting the
stage for a gradual warming trend through the weekend with only
low-impact, light precipitation chances. confidence is
increasing for colder conditions to return early next week, but
not nearly as cold as the current airmass.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect snow in far ne ohio and nw pa will move out over
the lake and dissipate through sunrise, with only minor
additional impacts.

2) low-impact weather with light precipitation chances and
warming temperatures today through the weekend before a bigger
cooldown early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1...
a very resilient band of lake effect snow continues to impact
northern ashtabula county as well as northern crawford and erie
counties in pa early this morning. this band is steadily
drifting north and finally starting to become less organized in
response to backing boundary layer flow and a lowering
inversion as high pressure builds into the ohio valley. before
the band gets offshore, additional snowfall amounts could reach
1 inch since strong low-level convergence as the flow backs is
helping to overcome the decreasing instability and inversion
levels. the headlines remain on track to expire at 09z since
most of the snow should be offshore by then, with just light
snow showers and flurries lingering through sunrise.

key message #2...
an unseasonably strong mid/upper ridge will strengthen over the
western conus and plains through the end of the week while
mid/upper longwave troughing persists across the great lakes and
northeast conus. this will allow for a slow warming trend today
through the end of the week, but the lingering trough over the
northeast will be reinforced by a couple of mid-level shortwaves
(clipper systems), and that will keep the warmest air west and
southwest of our region until a better push by the weekend.

the first shortwave and associated weak surface low will dive
into the northern great lakes today. a warm front out ahead of
it will slowly progress ene through the area as the surface high
departs offshore of the mid atlantic coast through the day. warm
air advection and isentropic ascent should drive a shield of
light rain/snow showers. there will be alot of dry air to
overcome, so not all of this will reach the ground, but decided
to introduce slight chance and chance pops over most of the area
today, continuing over nw pa tonight, as this band of
isentropic ascent gradually lifts through. any precip will be
low-impact, with snow amounts of a trace or less. temperatures
will also warm into the upper 30/low 40s today given the warm
air advection. as the weak low lifts into quebec thursday, the
trailing cold front will progress across the region. moisture
will continue to be very limited, but some synoptic support near
the left exit of a 120+ knot h3 jet over the upper midwest will
drive some light rain showers as high temperatures further warm
into the mid/upper 40s. again, low-impact, light precip.

a second shortwave and associated surface low will drop from
the northern great lakes friday through the eastern great lakes
by early saturday. this looks to be a stronger clipper, so
better warm air advection ahead of it will boost temperatures
into the upper 50s/low 60s friday. isentropic ascent ahead of
the warm front will once again drive a band of showers, but
based on the track of the low, the steadiest and most organized
rain will pass ne of our region, so this will again be light,
low-impact precip for our area friday and mainly confined to ne
ohio and nw pa.

temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the clipper`s cold
front saturday, but overall milder temperatures are expected for
the weekend as the mid/upper trough over the ne conus finally
weakens enough for a piece of the warmth over the plains to come
eastward. the next chance for light, low-impact showers will
come sunday and sunday night as a mid/upper trough over the
northern great lakes starts to deepen again. this will push a
cold front through the region. the bulk of the arctic air behind
this front will deflect into the new england region early next
week as broad mid/upper troughing becomes reestablished over
the great lakes, but temperatures monday and tuesday will still
be much colder compared to the weekend, but conditions will be
dry.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions will prevail today as high pressure continues to
impact the area. there is a slight chance for scattered light
rain showers across the area, but confidence remains low in
regards to timing or impact. not expecting the showers to be
heavy enough to lower conditions, so handled showers potential
with vcsh. mid to high clouds will likely spread across the are
throughout today with some mvfr ceilings sneaking into the area
this evening into early tonight.

southerly winds today of 10-12 knots are expected areawide.
localized gusts up to 20 knots are possible along and west of
i71 during the afternoon. after sunset tonight, all winds should
weaken to 5-10 knots with no gusts for the remainder of the
period.

outlook...non-vfr returns wednesday afternoon into thursday
with the next warm front.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie have calmed this morning with winds
of 5-15 knots being observed from the southwest. these winds
today will become more southerly and increase to 10 to 15 knots,
possibly touching 20 knots across portions of the western basin
into thursday. as a warm front lifts north late thursday, winds
across the lake will become less than 10 knots, maintaining a
general southerly flow. these light winds will persist into
sunday before a cold front moves east sunday afternoon and winds
increase from the northwest to 15-25 knots behind it. this
sunday period may require headlines in the future and will
continue to monitor it with upcoming forecasts.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
624 am edt wed mar 18 2026

.key messages...

- series of fast moving waves to bring two periods of light
precipitation through thursday.

- trending back to above normal starting thursday with the
warmest temps coming fri-sat.

- cold front arrives sunday with chances for showers (maybe a
few storms) followed by a return to more seasonable temps to
start the work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 242 am edt wed mar 18 2026

overall nw flow aloft will continue to send relatively weak
clippers/disturbances into the region over the next couple of days
before upper level heights increase sufficiently to allow a temporary
shift ne of this active flow. the impacts of the first wave are
already bringing some light snow to portions of sw wi/ne ia and ne
mn with vsbys generally above a mile. as the isentropic lift
increases over the next several hours, a lot of dry air needs to be
overcome (00z kilx sounding showed a very dry layer between 700 and
900 mb) before any snow can reach the ground. have made some changes
wrt timing and overall pops, which may need further revision in the
coming hours as we see how this unfolds. overall snow accumulations
will be under an inch and most likely near/under a half inch
(highest west), which could cause some slick spots for the morning
commute. any precip quickly exits by afternoon with temps climbing
above freezing (40s sw).

next, somewhat stronger, wave dives se late wed night into thursday
with another burst of isentropic lift. trends suggest onset likely
not occurring until after 9z and possibly even closer to 12z thu.
exact onset time may factor into ptype with air temps likely near
freezing in ne areas. for now have removed any zr mention and if
some occurred, it would be very brief in duration as waa strengthens
across the area. overall qpf will be somewhat higher than today`s
system, maybe reaching a tenth or so in some areas.

more substantial low level waa commences going into fri and sat with
highs back into the 60s and possibly some 70s as the main train of
waves is pushed ne (for a short period). a stronger cold front
arrives late sat night into sunday, but so far appears to be lacking
deeper moisture (sfc dewpoints struggle to 50 degrees sat night)
resulting of lower overall qpf potential. in the wake of the front,
more seasonable temperatures start the work week with some moderation
back above normal to end the period.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 620 am edt wed mar 18 2026

the previously mentioned clipper is still working its way
through the area with an increasing number of asos/awos (and
eyeballs) reporting flurries. therefore, the overall tafs remain
on track at this time. isolated instances of ifr visibility
persist within this clipper, so tempo ifr continues but is low
confidence, especially at kfwa.

in the wake of this clipper, ceilings improve to vfr followed
by rain showers just beyond this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion...updated
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
645 am edt wed mar 18 2026

.key messages...

- flurries will be more prevalent than light snow showers today as
arctic cold begins to moderate, with peak afternoon gusts around 25
mph.

- mainly rain thursday morning with a bit of light ice or even a few
snowflakes further north/west, then becoming all rain by the
afternoon hours.

- warming continues on friday with highs approaching 60f further
south.

- additional chances for showers friday and sunday.

&&

.aviation...

overcast mid and high level clouds have pushed into the terminal
corridor this morning. expecting predominately vfr ceilings as top
down saturation lowers the ceilings down to around 3-5kft throughout
the the morning into the early afternoon. this system will run into
a fair amount of lower level dry air and models have been trending
downward in regards to light snow potential. expect that there will
be a few flurries out there today, but have lower confidence in
overall timing. will focus a prob30 group for p6sm -shsn for the
early afternoon allowing some time for better saturation. there will
be some potential for scattered mvfr ceilings to develop towards this
evening as any chance for flurries comes to an end. winds will be
out of the south through the majority of the day before veering to
the southwest tonight. the afternoon will see gusts to near 25 knots
before lighter winds prevail this evening.

for dtw... ceilings to 5kft or lower will develop throughout the
morning into the afternoon with a limited chance to see flurries.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning and
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 638 am edt wed mar 18 2026


anticyclonic influence to the east acts to suppress ascent
associated with inbound mid-level height falls today. although top-
down saturation is currently underway, mid-level warm advection
reinforces static stability from 3-12 kft agl. accordingly, models
continue to trend lower with accumulating snow potential for today.
local decrease in pops is corroborated by meager upstream snow
observation density, with only minor visibility reductions for the
few sites that reported precipitation during the last several hours
(over minnesota and wisconsin). latest automated guidance refresh
zeroed-out pops. to account for a few flakes at times, added in
afternoon/evening flurry mention. temperatures should be at or above
freezing by the time flakes start to fall, therefore no
accumulations expected, even if some localized overachievement on
rates should occur. still seasonably cold today with highs in the
upper 30s. becoming gusty this afternoon once shallow diurnal
boundary-layer mixing taps into 25+ knot low-level flow. the weak
disturbance will dislodge downstream ridging, allowing a secondary
shortwave to transit the great lakes region late tonight into
thursday.

a speed max rolling downstream of a seasonably anomalous/amplified
longwave ridge over western conus crosses into southeast michigan
early thursday morning. thermodynamic profiles indicate
precipitation type concerns, but favoring (liquid) rain. given the
narrow precipitation swath with this system, current trajectories
focus most of the light qpf over the southwestern half of the cwa.
temperatures will start out in the upper 20s to lower 30s amidst
insulating nocturnal cloud cover, therefore icing potential should
be minimal/isolated for areas that sufficiently cool and reside
further west, maximizing potential to freeze before temperatures
quickly warm into the 40s shortly after sunrise. a glaze of morning
icing is possible but not probable for the west-central counties.
liquid equivalent totals should only sum to a few hundredths by
thursday evening when the wave exits over lake erie.

lower tropospheric ridging dampens as it slides over the state
thursday night into friday. the next embedded wave ejects into the
region friday morning. potential exists for showers as a perturbed
wind field moves in overhead, but a very sharp low-level inversion
layer prevents much of a wind (or precipitation) response. a warming
trend will be well underway to close out the workweek with highs
possibly exceeding 60f with greater proximity to the michigan/ohio
border. this ensures any precipitation that does occur will be in
the form of rain showers. period of deeper saturation will be brief
(if it materializes), then the mid and upper levels dry out quickly
friday evening. the aforementioned longwave ridge should flatten out
and fold east over the weekend. solution space remains mixed on the
positioning of the more active periphery which will dictate any
additional opportunities for showers. sunday offers the best chance
for some showers, along with a stronger wind field and a cold
frontal passage veering winds northwesterly to bring about more
seasonable temperatures by early next week.

marine...

moderate southerly winds return today as return flow around
departing high pressure kicks in, and low pressure tracks
through northern ontario wednesday night, drawing a warm front
north. gusts of 25-30 knots are expected this afternoon over the
over the open waters of lake huron, as 925 mb temperatures only
rise to -6 to -7 c, leading to mixing depths up to that level.

light winds return thursday-friday as a weak frontal boundary washes
out on thursday. a warm front will then arrive on friday, bringing a
better chance of precipitation.

warm airmass (7-10 c at 850 mb) in place on saturday favors winds
aob 20 knots with limited mixing/stable low levels. next cold front
on track to move through saturday evening, with good low level cold
advection and gusty northerly winds for saturday night. once
again, a period of wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots appear likely. the
the unstable low level profiles and longer fetch will result in
large waves building over the southern lake huron basin, with waves
aoa 4 feet impacting the nearshore waters.

prev discussion...
issued at 336 am edt wed mar 18 2026

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...aa
marine.......sf


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