Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 201842
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
242 pm edt fri mar 20 2026

.what has changed...
decreasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms into this
evening. increased sky cover tonight through saturday morning
and lowered high temperatures on saturday, particularly along
the lakeshore.

&&

.key messages...
1) decreasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening with a cold front. dreary weather expected
tonight into saturday morning behind the front.

2) conditional strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains for sunday
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front, mainly along and south
of us-30.

3) another system will move east through the great lakes on thursday,
though impacts to the local area remain uncertain.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

scattered to widespread showers, especially east of i-77, will
persist into this evening ahead and along of a cold front. some
thunderstorms are possible along the front, evident by recent
glaciating cloud tops in southern ontario in the presence of
elevated instability, though the threat for any strong to severe
thunderstorms appears to be decreasing given the pre-frontal
widespread cloud cover and rain showers.

behind the front overnight, shallow moisture will quickly become
trapped underneath a strong low-level inversion, resulting in
widespread low cloud cover which could potentially persist through
much of saturday morning. lower confidence in drizzle and/or fog
given the shallow moisture profile (generally beneath 850 mb) and
elevated boundary layer winds (5 to 7 knots). have slightly lowered
high temperatures areawide on saturday given the lingering cloud
cover. further decreased temperatures along the lakeshore (some
spots not getting out of the 40s) as weak, onshore flow is expected.

key message 2...

another system will move east through the great lakes on sunday,
extending a strong cold front across the region. this will present
another opportunity for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and
evening, mainly along and south of the us-30 corridor, with strong
mid-level shear in place approaching 50 knots. although this set up
appears more favorable than today`s (friday), there remain limiting
factors in place, including mid-level capping and pre-frontal
convection trending further south in today`s guidance, meaning the
strongest storms would form south of the area. if elevated
instability can recover north of the pre-frontal convection, the
environment could still yield a marginal hail threat across much of
the current swody3 marginal risk area.

a brief cool-down is expected behind the front, with temperatures in
the upper 30s to lower 40s on monday.

key message 3...

a third system will develop and move east through the great lakes,
extending a cold front across the area thursday night. chances for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will increase in the
afternoon and evening ahead of the front, though specifics on any
potential impacts remain uncertain. another sharp decrease in
temperatures is expected behind the front, with highs in the upper
30s to lowers 40s on friday.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
rain showers are ongoing across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania ahead of a cold front that extends from near
detroit to chicago at 18z. conditions are primarily vfr in
showers but mvfr visibilities have been occurring at eri where
rain has been heavier. we also continue to have some breezy
southwest winds ahead of the front with gusts to 20-25 knots.

look for the showers to taper off at most terminals by 21z.
there is a low chance of seeing a shower develop later along the
front but not likely. a wind shift will occur to the
north/northeast for the overnight with 10 knots or less forecast.
ceilings are expected to decline behind the cold front with an
ifr stratus deck filling in across ne ohio and nw pennsylvania.
have lowered ceilings after 06z with increasing likelihood of
dropping below 600 feet. patchy fog is also possible, but given
some wind overnight have only started trending down to mvfr
visibilities at cle and ifr at eri/yng/cak. conditions are
expected to improve from the southeast on saturday morning as
winds shift around to the southeast.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain showers and low ceilings on
sunday with another cold front.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds increase to 15-20kts before a cold front comes
through after 18z today with winds becoming northwest 10-15kts
heading into tonight. wave heights generally 1-3ft during this time
frame. winds light and variable into saturday, becoming southwesterly
once again 15-20kts ahead of the next cold front, slated for
around 18z sunday. open water wave heights 1-3ft saturday night
into early sunday becoming 4-7ft behind the cold front with
northerly winds in the range of 15-25kts. winds ease monday
through early tuesday but remain onshore 10-15kts and wave
heights at 2-4ft.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...10
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 201743
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
143 pm edt fri mar 20 2026

.key messages...

- mild this weekend, then turning cooler early next week.

- a dry pattern overall with chances (20-40%) for showers and
isolated storms on sunday, and then again toward the end of
next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt fri mar 20 2026

a compact shortwave diving southeast through the eastern great lakes
will drop a cool front through the area late this afternoon into
early this evening. dry low levels will make this a dry frontal
passage with cooler air funneling in tonight into saturday morning.
the front will retreat and/or wash out completely by saturday
afternoon with return southerly flow supporting a nice temp recovery
back into the 60s to near 70f by late in the day.

the next shortwave trough and frontal passage late sunday morning
into sunday afternoon is expected to feature slightly better
low level moisture return and a tight thermal gradient for a
potential weak frontal wave. this brings chances for showers and
isolated storms along the frontal slope during this time from
nw to se, though chances were generally held in the 20-40% range
as spread remains on how quickly the moisture return and
developing sfc wave come together (better chances east of the
area). mid afternoon timing of the surface portion of the front
with temperatures possibly making a run at 80f with ample deep
layer shear could bring an isolated hail/wind threat with any
convection south of us 24 sat pm, though this is highly
dependent on the timing of the front and when the cap breaks
(best chances south-southeast of the area late afternoon-
evening).

the post-frontal shot of colder air into sunday night and monday
appears brief with temperatures gradually on the rise through the
thursday. the next in these series of frontal systems then bring
rain chances and cooler air back into the fold late in the week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 134 pm edt fri mar 20 2026

a mainly dry cold frontal passage will bring gusty
northwesterly winds this afternoon through about 02z sat before
winds slacken to more light and variable. cigs will lower and
slight reductions in vsbys expected overnight between 08z
through 14z especially for ksbn however vfr conditions expected
through the remainder of the taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 201739
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
139 pm edt fri mar 20 2026

.key messages...

- above average temperatures will persist into the weekend.

- strong cold front moving through sunday afternoon brings a good
chance of showers and a significant cool down for monday.

&&

.aviation...

generally clear skies prevail through the early afternoon with
veering low-level flow enhancing cold air advection, which will work
in mvfr stratus tonight. there is some signal for ifr stratus
stratus development overnight with the better signal across kptk to
kfnt with the higher terrain. this shallow boundary layer moisture
will likely hold through the morning hours under a sharp low level
inversion until low-level flow veers southerly, which will then work
to lift ceilings heights and scour our low-level cloud cover through
the late morning to afternoon hours.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening and overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 252 am edt fri mar 20 2026

discussion...

latest water vapor imagery shows a strong, compact
shortwave on track to move southeast through lake huron this
morning. this supports the thumb region having the best chance for
numerous rain showers, with only scattered pops (30-50%) elsewhere.
negative upper-level pv advection/subsidence this afternoon should
lead to dry conditions; however, uncertainty remains regarding the
extent of low clouds, given low-level moisture (surface dew points
in the 40s) and incoming cold advection. max temperatures in the mid-
60s could be derailed across the far south if low clouds develop
faster than expected.

a strong upper-level ridge is centered over arizona, with the jet
stream tracking through the northern great lakes this weekend before
shifting briefly south of the region early next week. surface high
pressure on saturday will provide tranquil weather.

a strong cold front will track through southeast michigan sunday
afternoon. a wave of low pressure riding along the front will
attempt to delay its southward progress, adding uncertainty to the
exact frontal position during the day. meanwhile, strong northeast
winds over lake huron will accelerate the frontal passage and
enhance the temperature gradient. expect a dramatic temperature
contrast of 20-30 degrees from north to south across southeast
michigan by afternoon. locations toward the southern border could
reach the 60s, with an outside chance of 70+ degrees if the warmer
solution (see 00z regional gem model) materializes. modest
instability also presents a slight chance of thunderstorms near the
southern michigan border.

the post-frontal cold shot sunday evening into monday (850 mb
temperatures dropping into the negative upper single digits) looks
to be brief. temperatures should recover to near or slightly above
normal by mid-week.

marine...

gusty southeast wind precedes a compact clipper system that tracks
across northern lake huron later this morning. wind shifts to
northwest in its wake this afternoon, around 10 to 15 kt, while
rain/snow tapers off. high pressure then eases in late today into
early saturday with northerly wind generally aob 10 kt. a strong
cold front sinks south across the region on sunday with gusty
northeast wind of 20 to 30 kt developing behind it. probability for
gales remains low, but small craft advisories will likely be needed
across southern lake huron due to wave heights around or above 4
feet. expansive high pressure builds in behind the front on monday,
then the next cold front is expected on tuesday.

prev discussion...
issued at 229 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

record breaking high amplitude ridge over the western united states
will result in a northwest flow regime for the great lakes region
friday and this weekend. generally looking at minor forecast
concerns over the coming days with the most pertinent of challenges
being the swings in the temperature forecast locally with the
baroclinic zone wavering in vicinity of southeast michigan.

quiet weather with a few breaks in the clouds early this evening as
synoptic scale subsidence and surface high pressure pushes through
the area. upper level jet exit region spreads into the northern
great lakes late tonight opening the door to midlevel warm
advection. favorable synoptic lift in combination with embedded
shortwave energy will support a clipper/area of surface low pressure
tracking from the straits at 12z fri to toronto by 18z. warm
midlevel air mass, 900mb temperatures of +12-13c, pushes across
southern portions of the area supports an all rain forecast. dry air
and subsaturation in the lowest 9.0 kft agl yields lower confidence
in rainfall amounts, less than a tenth. the forecast pops range from
60% likelies in the thumb to 20 percent for much of metro detroit.
better support for rainfall exists across ontario and perhaps the
eastern cwa for a time between 12-18z friday. highs are tricky with
the surface cold front along the irish hills axis at 18z pushing
southward through metro detroit during the afternoon.

the surface front is forecasted to backdoor southward clearing the
region into portions of iowa and illinois friday night. big question
is then what temperatures can moderate to on saturday especially
with expected cloud cover. latest guidance was a little cooler for
saturday highs; but additional downward adjustments are likely needed
especially locations adjacent to the lakes.

deep midlevel trough and change in orientation to upper level jet
axis is expected to result in a frontal wave pushing through lower
michigan sunday. there is a converging of global model solutions for
a frontal timing sunday midday/afternoon. very warm midlevel
temperatures are again expected with 850mb temperatures of +16 or
+17c. post front precipitation may changeover to snow for a time but
warm ground will likely limit much of impactful accumulation outside
of the thumb. pops for sunday currently reside in the high chance,
40-55 percent range.

a large area of stable high pressure is anticipated for the
beginning of the next work week. cold nighttime temperatures are
expected to warm into the 40s with full sunshine.

marine...

a weak ridge of high pressure takes brief residence through late
today as a frontal boundary washes out overhead. northwest wind
becomes light this evening before organizing out of the southeast
early friday morning in response to a clipper system, reaching a
peak around 15 to 20 kt. this system tracks across northern lake
huron friday morning, bringing a quick round of rain and snow
overnight into the first half of friday. winds shift to north and
northwest in its wake at around 10 to 15 kt, then weaken into
saturday as high pressure builds back in. a strong cold front sinks
across the region on sunday with gusty northeast wind of 20 to 30 kt
developing behind it. probability for gales remains low, but small
craft advisories will likely be needed across southern lake huron
due to wave heights around or above 4 feet. expansive high pressure
builds in behind the front on monday, then the next cold front is
expected on tuesday.

prev discussion...
issued at 213 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...sf
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.