Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
802
fxus61 kcle 261146
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
646 am est thu feb 26 2026

.what has changed...
snow has trended up a bit for saturday night but still
expecting generally an inch or less. the qpf/snow axis for
sunday night into monday has shifted a bit farther south away
from our forecast area, so the probability of impactful snow has
decreased.

&&

.key messages...
1) warmer temperatures are expected on friday and saturday.

2) a brief period of snow will bring an inch or less of
accumulations to the area saturday night.

3) snow is possible sunday night into monday with a chance for minor
impacts, especially towards central ohio. confidence in the
placement of snow is very low at this point.

&&

.discussion...
1) high pressure over the area on thursday departs to the east
coast by friday and saturday. as low pressure moves eastward
north of the great lakes, broad southwest flow will lead to some
pleasant weather to end the month, as we expect above normal
temperatures and some sunshine both days.

2) an upper-level trough and a deepening/occluding surface low
make their way north of the great lakes, bringing a trailing
cold front southeast across the region on saturday. a weak and
subtle shortwave trough move through behind the cold front
saturday evening, producing weak isentropic lift for a short
period saturday evening/night, and with cold air advection in
place behind the departing cold front, any precipitation that is
produced should confidently fall as snow. it`s a pretty weak
system though, and overall only an inch or less of snow is
expected.

3) a cold airmass will accompany an expansive high pressure
as it builds into the northern portion of the country sunday
into early next week. broad isentropic lift overtop a baroclinic
zone is expected along the southern periphery of this high
somewhere across the mid-mississippi valley and ohio valley
sunday night into monday, which may result in an area of winter
weather. locally, it has been becoming less likely for an
impactful system as the latest model guidance projects the aforementioned
high pressure is more likely to push the qpf axis further south,
with indications of a lower qpf overall compared to the previous
models. while the probability of impactful winter weather is
decreasing, there is still a chance sunday night into monday,
especially towards the southern portion of the forecast area in
central ohio.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
high pressure will continue to build over the region during the
taf period, although stubborn lake effect clouds will likely
continue to produce mvfr ceilings across portions of nw pa and
far northeastern ohio for the first couple of hours of the taf
period. otherwise, vfr is expected through 12z friday.

winds will largely be light and variable or out of the
west/northwest during the day today before becoming more
south/southwest overnight. wind speeds will likely increase to 5
to 10 knots at most terminals by 12z friday.

outlook...non-vfr possible as snow moves southeast across the
area saturday night. additional non-vfr possible as snow moves
east across the area sunday night into early monday.

&&

.marine...
expect relatively calm marine conditions and light and variable
winds as high pressure maintains influence over the area today.
winds will shift to the southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots
as the high drifts east on friday with winds increasing to 15
to 20 knots as the cold front approaches and moves across the
lake late friday into saturday. winds will become more
northwesterly and diminish to about 10 knots behind the front on
saturday before shifting to the north as high pressure builds
into the area saturday night through sunday. east/northeast
winds will develop and sustained winds may increase a bit as a
weak low moves east across the ohio valley on monday.

variable winds will allow ice on the lake to shift around over
the next several days. ice decay is likely as temperatures rise
well above freezing friday and saturday and again from tuesday
onwards.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
481
fxus63 kiwx 261612
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1112 am est thu feb 26 2026

.key messages...

- highs today will be around 40 but highs tomorrow will be well
into the 50s with near 60 possible south of us-30.

- the next chance (20-50%) of snow arrives late saturday with
localized amounts up to an inch possible north of us-30.

- more snow is possible sunday night into early monday but
confidence in location and amounts is very low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 215 am est thu feb 26 2026

light snow associated with weak shortwave/fgen band passing just
south of our cwa as expected. very dry air in the lowest 10kft will
keep our area precip-free with just some passing mid/high clouds.
these clouds will exit later this morning and anticipate mostly
sunny skies today with highs in the mid 40s south to upper 30s north
where some snowpack remains. brief period of strong sw flow/waa
still expected on friday as mid/upper level flow briefly flattens
ahead of an upper low moving across ontario. mostly sunny skies and
deep mixing will yield highs near 60f, especially in our s/sw zones,
and gusty winds up to 30 mph. overall a nice day by feb standards.
the associated cold front passes fri night but best mid/upper level
support for ascent passes well to our north and still expecting a
dry frontal passage.

this cold front will stall across the ohio valley, setting up a very
tight baroclinic zone across our area. 850mb temps are below -20c
over northern mi and near 10c along the ohio river. this sets the
stage for our next chance of precip late sat. a weak shortwave
riding along this tight thermal gradient will induce some modest
low/midlevel fgen in our area. one or two bands of light snow are
expected in this scenario but the question is exactly where. with
weak forcing and relatively dry airmass, precip will likely be
confined to the portions of the frontal slope that are best
activated and models continue to struggle with where exactly that
will be. best chances are with the 700mb portion of the front which
sets up roughly along/just north of the toll road. however, some
guidance suggests a second band lighting up along 850mb in our
southern cwa. for now, just have some broad-brushed pop`s to cover
both but think the better chances will be in the north. snowfall
amounts will be limited given weak forcing and relatively dry/stable
air but local amounts up to an inch are possible where the best fgen
sets up. southern zones are also warm enough that precip could fall
as rain or melt when it hits the ground if it does snow. this
further limits potential impacts with the southern portion of the
front.

very similar scenario sets up sun night into early monday but this
wave features better synoptic-scale support and much better moisture
return. track remains the big issue and 00z guidance continued with
the more southern trend. will still have to watch our southern zones
for possible advisory-level snow but there is still a very high
degree of uncertainty in where exactly this subtle wave tracks.
forecast thereafter steadily trends warmer next week with several
more chances for precip but details remain uncertain this far
out.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1112 am est thu feb 26 2026

high pressure will continue to provide light winds and vfr
conditions, with passing mid-high level clouds at times. return
southwesterly flow does pick up a bit late friday morning into
friday afternoon with gusts near 20 knots toward the end of taf
cycle.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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468
fxus63 kdtx 261737
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1237 pm est thu feb 26 2026

.key messages...

- warmer friday.

- a 40 to 60 percent chance of snow late saturday with minor
accumulations where snow occurs.

- colder sunday, then a warming trend through next week.

&&

.aviation...

surface high pressure positioned overhead this afternoon drifts
eastward while maintaining control of conditions across se mi
through this evening. it keeps the low levels free of clouds while
varying amounts of mid and high coverage move across the great lakes
from low pressure in central canada. as this low approaches northern
ontario, cloud layer wind increases from the sw tonight which
carries in borderline vfr/mvfr clouds from the midwest on the
leading edge of milder air. these clouds track across lower mi from
about midnight into sunrise friday and then clear eastward during
the morning. precipitation struggles to reach this far south leaving
vfr above 5000 ft and increasingly gusty sw wind as the weather
highlights for the remainder of friday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 am est thu feb 26 2026

discussion...

surface high rolling through the state this morning has allowed bulk
of cloud cover to scatter offering a cold start to the day with
surface observations showing temperatures down into the teens and
single digits. lighter winds under the surface high by daybreak will
offer minimum wind chills in the lower single digits. cold thermal
trough still influencing the region, though the coldest air will
start to move out throughout the day as winds turn out of the
southwest with the departing high. look for highs today in the low
30s across the thumb to mid-upper 30s elsewhere. a weak shortwave
trough swings through the northern great lakes this afternoon and
tonight. the best moisture and forcing will be north across the up
and northern lower michigan, but there some evidence that far
northern portions of the cwa may get clipped by weak snow
showers/flurries tonight. otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected.

greater warm air advection expected for friday associated with a
strengthening low pressure system across central/northern ontario.
temperatures at 850mb climb several degrees above freezing ahead of
the systems cold front. expecting temperatures to reach into the 50s
for much of southeast michigan with portions of the thumb reaching
the mid-upper 40s. low level jet winds of 40-50 knots move over the
area friday. the warm advection helps lower mixing depths to some
degree, which should limit higher gust potential. gusts to around 35
mph will be possible, especially north of i-69. cold front passes
through friday night. lack of any moisture will result in a dry
frontal passage.

frontal boundary settles south of the state with cold advection
drawing daytime temperatures for saturday down into the low 30s to
low 40s. the stalled boundary will become parallel to the mean mid
level flow that will be carrying a mid level wave over the area.
this will trigger a fgen response and result in a chance of light
snow saturday afternoon into the evening. light qpf amounts bring a
chance to see snowfall accumulations of a half inch up to around an
inch possible that are currently focused along and south of i-69.
the southern periphery of an arctic airmass moves in saturday night
sending sunday afternoon temperatures back down into the 20s. strong
high pressure should keep conditions dry sunday into early next week
while a gradually rebound in temperatures occur.

marine...

lighter winds start the day as midwestern high pressure slides
across the southern great lakes. winds shift to the southwest by
early afternoon as the high begins to depart and a weak disturbance
reaches the northern great lakes. associated snow showers are
confined to northern half of the lake huron. southwesterly winds
strengthen daytime friday in response to strong low pressure
tracking over northern ontario. despite 40-50kt winds developing
aloft during this timeframe, milder airmass should greatly limit
overlake mixing capping potential peak wind gusts at 30kts. an
arctic cold front quickly follows friday night ushering in a much
colder airmass as well supporting a 5-8hr window for northwest gusts
to exceed 34kts over the northern third of lake huron (currently 75%
probability to reach gales) with lower potential (~40%) to near
40kts for a few hours. a gale watch is in effect north of sturgeon
point friday night through early saturday morning. high pressure
then follows for the latter half of the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...gale watch from friday evening through saturday morning for lhz361-
362.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.