Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 121814
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
214 pm edt sun apr 12 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a potent system will bring the potential for strong to
severe storms to the area late tuesday into tuesday night. the
potential for all severe hazards exist.

2) an active weather pattern will present multiple chances for
rain and thunderstorms throughout the week.

3) above average temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
although this week will be fairly active weather wise, models are
beginning to suggest that there is an elevated risk for strong to
severe weather specifically on tuesday afternoon into the overnight
hours. looking at the overall set up, there will be a deepening
trough over the western us that begins to pivot as a relatively weak
cold front begins to sag south across the great lakes region. on the
leading edge of the aforementioned trough, ample waa will persist
with deep layer moisture streaming over the region. by the late
afternoon hours on tuesday, a strong llj of 40-50 knots will nudge
across the cwa which will provide additional support along the
boundary which should ultimately become the focus of convection.
modeled hodographs and soundings suggest that initial storms could
be isolated and have supercell features before merging into a more
linear line. given this, all hazards are possible with a non-zero
chance of tornadoes. will have to continue to monitor the evolution
of this system once it gets within the hi-res guidance time frame to
pinpoint more specifically timing and hazard concerns.

confidence in severe weather on tuesday into the overnight hours is
medium at best as of this forecast update. the uncertainty in this
event comes from the fact that there will be showers monday night
into tuesday morning and there is quite a bit of uncertainty in how
the lingering showers/cloud cover may impact the threat later in the
day. current models suggest ample destabilization occurring with
mlcape increasing to 1000 to 2000 j/kg by the afternoon, but if
clouds linger the cap may be much more difficult to overcome. as of
now, spc has highlighted much of the area in a day 3 marginal risk
with a small sliver near the toledo metro in a slight risk. in
addition, wpc has highlighted portions of nw oh in a marginal day 3
ero.

key message 2...
dry conditions are expected to persist today before a very active
weather pattern brings the potential for showers and storms almost
everyday going forward. multiple shortwave troughs embedded in a
larger deepening trough will impact the area, providing support for
multiple surface lows and associated boundaries. these system should
remain progressive in nature, moving quickly across the region.
aside from the above notes about severe weather potential late
tuesday, there will be additional periods of storm potential,
especially in the afternoon and evenings when destabilization is
most likely. given the persist waa and general south-southwesterly
flow, pwat values look to remain in the 1-1.5" range which will
likely allow for efficient rainfall within the heaviest showers.
heavy rain may pose a localized flooding concern given the heavy
rains over the last couple weeks, but not expecting any widespread
concern given the progressive nature of the systems.

in addition to the severe potential, there will also be multiple
days where gusty winds will be possible given strong lljs that push
north in the area. gusts should be limited overnight unless
decoupling occurs. in the current forecast, the strongest synoptic
winds are expected monday into monday night with gusty winds
possible during the afternoon for the remainder of the week. moral
of the story, the weather will be very active in the coming week,
but don`t expect everyday to be a complete wash out.

key message 3...
spring looks to stick around into the near future as above average
temperatures are expected to persist through this forecast period
and beyond. current forecasted high temperatures through this week
will remain in the 70s with overnight lows cooling into the 60s.
looking past this week, cpc has highlighted the entire area in the 8-
14 day temperature outlook for temperatures to likely be above
normal.

as reference, the average high for this time of year is in
the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid to upper
30s.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
south to southwest winds will be breezy this afternoon with
gusts of 20-27 knots. skies will trend towards mostly clear for
the afternoon and early evening. we should see wind gusts drop
off for the first half of the night resulting in low level wind
sheer as a 40-50 knot low level jet near 2k feet moves overhead.
expect so see winds at the surface increasing between 06-12z
and removed the wind sheer as surface winds increased to 15-20
knots and gusts of 25-30 knots resumed. an area of scattered
light rain showers will move west to east across northern ohio
and nw pennsylvania between 07-14z. showers are generally
expected to be light so will continue with 6 mile or better
visibility but can not rule out a brief drop to mvfr in a
moderate shower. ceilings will lower from near 5k feet to around
3-4k feet on monday morning. lower ceilings seem more likely
towards tol and in the east and brought in a few hours of mvfr
at tol/yng/eri. winds will remain breezy through the end of the
period although starting to trend down by mid afternoon on
monday.

outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are expected in periodic
showers and thunderstorms monday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southeast winds at around 10 knots are expected this morning
before shifting to the southwest behind a warm front this
afternoon and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening through
monday. there may be periods where winds very briefly exceed 20
knots through monday afternoon, although offshore flow will
focus the higher waves into the open waters of the lake. with
that being said, winds may be just westerly enough to produce
waves just over 4 feet in the nearshore waters of the eastern
basin monday morning into monday afternoon and a brief small
craft advisory may be needed during that timeframe. winds will
diminish to about 10 knots monday night, however periods of
elevated winds will likely persist through thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 121824
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
224 pm edt sun apr 12 2026

.key messages...

- unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the upcoming
work week with highs in the 70s and even some 80s at times.

- an active period of showers and thunderstorm chances through
the middle of the week. greatest probability of showers and
storms is tuesday night and wednesday (60-80%). there is a
potential of severe weather, mainly late tuesday afternoon and
night along with wednesday afternoon and early evening.

- little, if any hydro concerns expected into tuesday morning.
confidence is low to medium on some impacts tuesday night into
wednesday, but too early to pin down specific basins.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 224 pm edt sun apr 12 2026

cloud cover has quickly cleared out with a rapid upward trends in
temperatures today with many locations enjoying the 70s. these
temperatures will dominate much of the upcoming week as the overall
upper level pattern remains unchanged with a trough across the
western us and a unimpeded southwest flow ushering in warmth and
moisture. a series of disturbances will eject from the trough, the
first arriving this evening. this feature is currently highlighted
by an area of showers and a few storms across western missouri. this
will move northeast into tonight, bringing increasing chances for
showers and maybe a storm or 2 this evening and maybe into the
overnight hours before quickly moving away. some models trend with
an overall weakening of the area as it outruns the better lift, but
most areas should see some measurable rainfall (not enough to cause
any additional hydro issues).

some changes to pops have occurred through the day monday and even
into mon night and early tuesday to match with a converging of
trends wrt to axis of best precip chances most likely north (if not
well north) of the forecast area. in the wake of tonight`s wave,
there will be little in the way of forcing around monday until the
next wave approaches and by in large misses the area to the nw.
temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s will allow for 1k to maybe
2k of sbcape and modest low/mid level lapse rates. with the lack of
any trigger, convective potential would be very isolated, if at all
through monday afternoon. an increasing llj to the west and another
disturbance will set the stage for shower and storm development with
the greatest threat across wi into central lower mi near the warm
front. still appears there could be a few showers and storms around
monday evening across far northern areas, but could see pops getting
whittled down further in future forecasts.

tuesday into wednesday appear to be the potentially busier days, but
not clear cut in terms of severe or flooding potential. with the
bulk of the precip expected to be north of the area to start
tuesday, this would set the stage for better heating and plenty of
instability around for tuesday afternoon and evening. with the more
northward trend in the best chances of convection mon ngt/early tues
this could lead to a lack of convective boundaries around to allow
early initiation tuesday afternoon. this would mean we may need to
wait till the next disturbances moves in tuesday night with
increasing chances for showers and storms in the nw third to maybe
half of the area. with the main surface features still to the north
and west, the greatest focus for severe weather could materialize
well away with convection then moving in during a less favorable
window overnight into early wed. only minor changes made tuesday
night given the low confidence on any 1 scenario. if stronger storms
take shape, all modes would be possible (leaning towards hail or
wind damage). wednesday relies heavily on tuesday nights outcome as
the main cold front will still remain well west of the area and the
sfc low working north across mi. the upper level trough will begin
to eject and intensify somewhat with general consensus of the wave
in eastern ne at 00z thu then to wi by 18z thu. the greatest severe
threat likely will reside to our west once again (as highlighted by
the dy4 15% area from s wi into ne tx). no changes for wednesday
into thursday given the uncertainty.

yet another northern stream trough will dig into wy/co by 12z fri
with a uptick in the low level flow to usher in potentially the
first day of more widespread 80 degree temps across portions of the
area. a leftover front may exist to cause somewhat of a gradient
north to south but still well above normal even north of it (mid to
upper 70s). rain chances look to increase friday night into saturday
as the trough moves across the area and pushes a strong cold front
with it. highs sunday are likely to be 15 to 25 degrees cooler than
sat.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 109 pm edt sun apr 12 2026

high and eventually mid-level clouds will fill in for the
remainder of the day time hours as the warm sector of a north
dakota low becomes established. moisture advection from the
gulf will improve and a few-hour period of showers is expected
tonight. a strengthening low-level jet, not only a key forcing
mechanism for tnoight`s showers, presents a marginal llws
concern. however, forecast soundings depict no inversion and the
duration will be relatively brief, so, will withhold from the
taf at this time.

mvfr ceilings threaten to linger through the end of the taf
period with time-height cross sections showing robust low-level
moisture.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 121937
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
337 pm edt sun apr 12 2026

.key messages...

- milder with widespread showers developing tonight.

- stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- an active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms monday night through thursday.

- there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms monday night and
tuesday morning.

- locally heavy rainfall potential also increases during the mid
week period.

&&

.discussion...

prolonged period of mid level southwest flow featured north of a
sprawling southeast conus upper ridge sets the stage for an
increasingly mild, moist and intermittently active pattern heading
into early next week. increasing depth to southwest flow downstream
of organizing northern plains low pressure effectively drawing the
attendant warm frontal structure northward across lower michigan
late this afternoon. modestly mixed emerging warm sector will
maintain gusty conditions into the evening hours, intermittenly
reaching excess of 30 mph at times. narrow window for possible weak
boundary layer destabilization across central lower mi maintains a
lower probability for shower/t-storm production over mainly the
saginaw valley through early this evening. attention then turns to
an inbound mid level wave and plume of higher quality moisture noted
on water vapor shearing across the mid miss valley. fueled by 50+
knot inflow at 850 mb, this will establish favorable conditions for
roughly a 6-hour period of widespread rainfall overnight.
probabilistic output highlights a broad qpf footprint of .1 to
.25" /highest north/, with lower likelihood for upwards of half an
inch across the saginaw valley and northern thumb.

the first in a series of seasonably warm days entrenched starting
monday as low level southwest flow sustains periodic bouts of more
meaningful thermal advection. highs pushing well into the 70s except
along the immediate lake huron shoreline. background environment
generally unsupportive of convective development through the
daylight period despite some degree of diurnal destabilization,
owing to a lack of tangible forced ascent as shortwave upper ridging
briefly governs conditions. outgoing forecast will continue to
promote simply a low end pop mention through early evening. renewed
deeper moisture transport initiates upstream again monday night,
possibly aided by some form of remnant convective wave ejecting
through the warm sector. while greater convective organization and
expansion expected to focus along/north of a surface low and warm
front across parts of mn/wi and eventually northern mi, the
probability does exist for sufficient mid level destabilization to
occur as higher theta-e lifts through to initiate convection locally
during the overnight hours. an uptick in deep layer shear could
offer some organized updraft potential should activity emerge and
root within a steepening lapse rate environment in the mid levels.
spc day 2 outlook maintains a marginal risk to highlight the
potential for large hail monday night.

a muddled picture yet in terms of convective potential across the
tuesday-wednesday periods. the ambient environment will be virtually
unchanged tuesday, still defined by southwest flow of considerable
depth south of a frontal boundary that now anchors over northern
lower mi. this will again support highs well into the 70s. the
overall environment still lacks in discernible forced ascent outside
of the front, unless a yet defined trailing mcv makes an appearance
from overnight convection upstream. outgoing forecast will continue
to highlight a broader, mid range probability for rainfall tuesday
afternoon, but suspect some downward revision may occur across at
least southern areas as confidence grows in the frontal positioning
holding from the saginaw valley/northern thumb northward. convective
initiation and expansion most likely tuesday evening across central
and northern lower mi as the boundary gradually retreats northward
and also upstream under more supportive conditions. plausible the
midwest activity funnels downstream in some fashion nocturnally for
the overnight period. the underlying thermodynamic and kinematic
profiles suggests an organized convective episode is possible, with
the latest spc day 3 outlook offering a broad slight risk for svr wx
encompassing all of lower michigan.

warmer mid april conditions persist through the latter half of the
week. this combined with continued high quality moisture content
will maintain a favorable background environment thermodynamically
for additional episodes of convective development within the wed=thu
periods, particularly as greater height falls and an associated
frontal passage offer greater large scale forced ascent. dry and
very mild friday - temperatures possibly making a run toward 80
degrees.

&&

.marine...

southerly gradient winds continue to strengthen this evening as a
low pressure system tracks through lake superior and ontario, while
high pressure remains stalled off the mid-atlantic coast. a warm
front associated with the low continues to lift northward, trailing
an even warmer elevated front. this provides stability, preventing
40-50 knot 3-5 kft winds from mixing down to water level. locally
higher winds and waves are still possible across the northern half
of lake huron given ongoing convection along the warm frontal
boundary. small craft advisories remain in effect for the southern
lake huron nearshores as waves respond to increasing winds tonight.
expanded the advisory to include lake st. clair and western lake
erie since gusts are now expected to exceed 25 knots. potential
still exists for brief gusts to gales late tonight into monday as a
65+ knot low-level jet crosses portions of the central great lakes.
the main area of concern is still saginaw bay after flow veers
southwesterly and funnels/converges off-shore, but also near the
straits where potential for deeper mixing exists. several additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the week
due to a series of troughs, low pressure systems, and fronts.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 137 pm edt sun apr 12 2026

aviation...

a surface warm front is now just north of mbs, leading to breezy
southwest flow across the airspace. peak gusts of 30 to isolated 35
knots are observed upstream, which will move in late this afternoon
as high cloud clears out. next round of showers and a very low
chance of thunderstorms arrives late tonight into monday morning
(primarily 06z to 11z) as the next wave ripples through. best
opportunity for a rumble of thunder exists across the saginaw
valley. the added moisture to the boundary layer with this shower
activity establishes weakly stable to neutral profiles, supporting a
return of breezy conditions during the overnight period. dry air
fills in aloft early monday morning, trapping low level moisture and
lowering ceilings to mvfr to potentially ifr around sunrise. daytime
heating then lifts and scatters the cloud deck by early afternoon.

dtw/d21 convection... limited instability will maintain a very low
risk of thunderstorms across the airspace late tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet late tonight into monday morning.

* low for thunderstorms late tonight into early monday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt monday
for lhz421-422-443.

small craft advisory until 10 am edt monday for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt monday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt monday
for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mv

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.