Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
800 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

.what has changed...
overall, the key messages remain unchanged. there`s still
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms on sunday,
however confidence in the timing and location of convective
initiation is still low.

&&

.key messages...
1.) unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through sunday.
a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on sunday,
especially along and south of u.s. route 30.

2.) variable temperatures expected next week with rain chances
increasing by late wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
warm air advection will result in increasing temperatures
across the area through sunday. expect low temperatures in the
40s and 50s tonight with highs reaching the mid 60s and lower
70s sunday afternoon. depending on cloud cover and any showers
during the day sunday, a few spots in southern zones may climb
into the mid to upper 70s.

there`s still potential for isolated to scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms along or behind a cold front on sunday,
although confidence in the placement and timing of convective
initiation remains low at this time. there will certainly be
sufficient shear/mucape/lapse rates to allow for the development
of stronger storms, however several forecast soundings from
cams place a capping inversion across the majority of the area,
which would significantly limit the severe weather potential.
there`s also the possibility of some showers and perhaps
thunderstorms associated with the passage of the cold front
earlier in the day sunday, which could stabilize the atmosphere
over the local area and further limit the severe weather threat.

if the cap manages to break, sufficient destabilization occurs,
and/or convection develops earlier than anticipated, all severe
weather hazards will be on the table, although damaging wind
gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns. based on the
current forecast mesoscale environment, the best instability and
potential for severe weather will likely be south of the u.s.
route 30 corridor, although isolated strong storms can`t be
ruled out to the north. it`s possible that storms develop close
to the southeastern cwa border and intensify as they move
south/southeast later in the day sunday.

key message 2...
light cold air advection showers (possibly a mix of rain/snow) can`t
be ruled out across nw pa late sunday into monday. otherwise,
dry weather is expected through the middle of the week before
precipitation chances increase as a system crosses the area
late wednesday through thursday. generally expect rain with this
system, although a rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out in cold air
advection on friday.

temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit during the week. monday
and friday will be the coldest days of the week with highs in
the 40s expected and thursday`s current forecast highs are in
the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. temperatures will likely be
below freezing sunday night and monday night with widespread
20s likely monday night.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
outside of a few spots near the immediate lake erie shoreline,
all have improved to vfr this evening and are expected to remain
vfr into sunday morning. a cold front will cross the area
between the late morning and late afternoon hours on sunday from
north to south. the cold front itself will try to spark
scattered showers and perhaps some storms, especially farther
south and east across the area towards mfd/cak/yng. the
greatest potential for showers and perhaps thunder appears to be
behind the front late sunday afternoon and evening. showers
will be possible at all sites, with thunder again more of a
likelihood towards mfd/cak/yng. ceilings will also fall to mvfr
and in many areas ifr behind the front, especially towards
sunday evening as cold northerly winds establish off of lake
erie. there may ultimately be two rounds of shower/storm
potential close together sunday afternoon and evening, along
with the falling ceilings to contend with. this is a tricky
evolution to convey with the tafs, and expect refinement as
exact timing and thunderstorm potential becomes evident.

winds currently range from south most of the area to east-
northeast near lake erie, but should all shift south at 5-12
knots overnight. maintained a period of low-level wind shear all
sites late evening or overnight tonight into early sunday. winds
shift west-southwest at 7-15kt with some 20-25kt gusts ahead of
the front on sunday, then north at 10-16kt with gusts up to 25kt
behind the front later sunday afternoon/evening.

outlook...non-vfr in stratus and perhaps a few lake effect
flurries or snow showers continues sunday night into monday,
with high pressure bringing improving conditions late monday.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions are expected to persist through late this
afternoon as winds linger from the east at less than 10 knots.
tonight, a warm front will lift north across lake erie, shifting
winds to become southerly and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. late
sunday morning, an associated cold front will push east,
allowing for another shift in winds as they become north-
northwesterly at 15 to 20 knots into monday morning. this
enhanced onshore flow may allow for waves to build to 3 to 5
feet across the central basin. will have to continue to monitor
this period for the potential need for a small craft advisory.

winds will gradually weaken to 5 to 10 knots from the northwest
as the low shifts east off the mid-atlantic coast. these light
winds will persist through tuesday as high pressure builds into
the region. another mid- to late-week system will likely
increase winds once again.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sullivan
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
814 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

.key messages...

- there is a 30-60 percent chance of rain on sunday with a few
thunderstorms possible south of us-24. severe weather is not
expected.

- highs drop into the 40s for monday but slowly climb back to
the 60s by thursday.

- dry conditions are expected monday through wednesday but
additional rain is likely on thursday.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 145 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential late tomorrow. a
midlevel shortwave is currently entering the northern great lakes
but becomes increasingly sheared with time as the mid/upper level
flow briefly dampens and becomes more zonal late tonight. the most
notable aspect of the system at this point is strong low level waa.
lows tonight likely remain in the 50s given steady southwest
wind/waa. this strong w/sw flow advects modest surface dewpoints
(mid/upper 50s) into the area along with a notable eml (midlevel
lapse rates over 8 c/km). however, this also results in a strong
capping inversion around 750mb for much of the day. the trailing
surface cold front that crosses our cwa tomorrow arrives very early,
reaching the us-24 corridor by 15-16z. this significantly limits the
potential for surface-based diurnal destabilization and, outside
some broad low level convergence, this front doesn`t have much
available forcing for ascent (certainly not enough to overcome a
strong cap, at least until a secondary shortwave arrives later
tomorrow evening). in fact, forecast soundings show virtually no
opportunity for surface-based convection with a strong cap ahead of
the front and significant 1000-850mb caa behind the front. there is
still some postfrontal mucape available as midlevel lapse rates
remain on the high side but depth and strength of low level stable
layer suggests small hail as the only potential threat. by the time
the secondary shortwave arrives and diurnal destabilization is
maximized (21-03z), the surface front is already well se of our area.
will maintain a thunderstorm mention and won`t rule out some small
hail south of us-24 but overall the severe risk appears very low.

rest of the forecast is relatively quiet as canadian high pressure
settles into the region for the mon-wed period. highs monday drop
into the 40s with 850mb temps near -5c. slow but steady moderation
expected on tue with waa really ramping up late wed. this will be
our next chance of precip, particularly into thu as another modest
wave crosses the northern great lakes and sends a sharp cold front
through our area. this system looks very similar to sunday with
decent theta-e advection ahead of the front but lackluster mid/upper
level support for ascent in our area. still plenty of time for
adjustments here though.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 747 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

expect predominantly vfr conditions at both terminals to start
the period, with s-sw flow shifting n-nw behind a cold front
passing sun am, first at ksbn around 10-12z, then around 13-16z
at kfwa. expect llws to 40-45 knots at both terminals through
the morning, with gusts up to around 20-25 knots at both sites
by sun afternoon behind the cold front. model guidance is
conflicted re: the extent of the precipitation with the front,
with most suggesting a dry passage at ksbn (maybe some br, but
low confidence so didn`t include). at kfwa, the nam is more
pessimistic-suggesting ifr/lifr conditions at times. it also
produces drizzle and/or br/fg at kfwa in the 12-15z time. i`m
more confident in mvfr conditions, but if drizzle or fog
develops with the passage (given a decent amount of warm
air/moisture advection ahead of the front), i could see the
lower ifr/lifr occurring. i used prob30 groups to convey this
uncertainty.

a secondary shortwave follows after the front sunday
afternoon, impacting ksbn around 18-21z and kfwa around 21-00z.
models seem to agree on some light shower potential and
vfr/higher-end mvfr ceilings/visibility at ksbn around the
time of the passage. at kfwa there is a lot of disagreement with
guidance-with the most likely mvfr conditions occurring after
21z with any precipitation that develops along the front
(thunderstorms are possible if we can break through a cap/gather
instability at sfc). if the nam is right, we`ll remain mvfr
through the day, with ceilings around 1500ft and light drizzle
through most of the morning and afternoon (thunderstorms more
likely southeast of the site in that case). for now, have
predominant precip/vcts after 21z, with 4sm -tsra br and 1500ft
ceilings in a prob30.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from noon sunday to 3 pm edt monday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
718 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

.key messages...

- strong cold front moving through sunday brings a good chance of
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm near the ohio border.

- a significant cool down follows the front with below normal
temperatures for monday.

&&

.aviation...

surface low pressure in the northern great lakes this evening has a
warm front extending southward into western lower mi at forecast
issuance. the front moves eastward across the rest of the central
great lakes and se mi with minimal cloud cover this evening. mostly
clear sky then promotes strong nocturnal surface based stability
leading to low level wind shear as the weather highlight for tonight
ahead of the quickly trailing cold front. scattered light rain
showers and mvfr ceiling move in along and behind the front from late
tonight toward mbs and then gradually spreads southward toward dtw
by mid afternoon until ending toward early sunday evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight, moderate sunday
morning, high sunday afternoon.

* high for all rain as precipitation type.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 304 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

discussion...

clouds and southeast flow have led to a slow climb in temperatures
through the early afternoon hours with many locations just recently
breaking into the low 40s. high temperatures in the low 50s is still
very possible as we are dealing with a warm front approaching from
the southwest offering much clearer skies and winds slightly veered
more to the south which will take some of the influence of the cold
lakes away. the clearing skies on the west side of the state has
already allowed many locations to hit 50.

the surface low associated with the warm front is over northern mn
this afternoon and will track ese through northern mi overnight
reaching lake huron sunday morning. the nighttime hours look dry as
the lead push of theta e and fgen is all to the north over northern
lake huron and into lake superior. warm advection does ramp up in
advance of the cold front leading to a warmer night locally. temps
are expected to only drop to the low 40s. the cold front will slowly
drop through southern mi later tonight, possibly reaching the ohio
border by 12z sunday. increasing moisture, strengthening mid level
lapse rates, and fgen along the elevated portions of the front will
help form a band of rain that will settle southward through the area
sunday. there are some model clipping the far southern cwa with some
elevated instability so a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but not
expecting anything widespread or severe.

the somewhat zonal flow pattern aloft being parallel to the front,
will offer an initial wind shift with the front to the northwest but
only drop 850mb temps from the teens above zero down to the single
digits in the afternoon. further cooling comes sunday night where
850mb temps go negative with this thermal trough holding into monday
night. lows sunday and monday nights will drop into the 20s. after a
cool monday with highs in the 40s, high pressure drifting through
southern mi and the ohio valley will bring southwesterly return flow
mid week pushing the colder air back north and bringing high temps
back into the 50s and 60s. next chance of rain comes wed/thurs with
the next cold front dropping through the region.

marine...

low pressure in the process of sliding across the northern great
lakes this afternoon eventually tracks through the central lakes
tonight. this system drags a cold front across the region over the
course of sunday supporting additional scattered rain showers and
potentially a thunderstorm or two over the southern great lakes by
sunday evening. moderate north to north-northeast flow develops
behind the front with peak gusts occuring latter half of the day
sunday/sunday night. given the fetch, the southern half of lake
huron will see the strongest wind gusts (20-25kts) with the rest of
the region holding closer to the 15-20kt range. onshore flow brings
higher wave action into the thumb nearshore waters warranting a
small craft advisory into monday. strong high pressure builds in
behind the front on monday, then the next cold front is expected to
glance northern lake huron by late tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am sunday to 4 pm edt monday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.