Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
455
fxus61 kcle 281133
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
733 am edt fri aug 28 2026

.what has changed...
confidence increasing in precipitation chances returning to the
area as early as sunday night with a less amplified upper ridge
into the great lakes.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure builds across the region this weekend with
warming temperatures.

2) unsettled weather pattern across the great lakes may bring
periodic shower and thunderstorm chances to the local area next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
aside from an isolated lake enhanced shower or two early this
morning, mainly dry conditions expected today through sunday as
high pressure builds across the region. warming temperatures
expected through the weekend although moisture return will be a
bit delayed, with humidity ramping up by early next week.

key message 2...
models have trended towards a less amplified ridge across the
great lakes sunday night, with the potential for upstream
convection/mcs activity through the great lakes impacting far
northeast ohio and northwest pa. the ridge may amplify a bit
monday into tuesday over the area providing dry conditions,
however an active zonal flow regime through the great lakes may
end up shifting a bit further south impacting the local area.
higher confidence in shower/thunderstorm chances by mid to late
week across the area as a cold front settles south into the area
and the mid/upper flow becomes northwest.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
there`s some patchy fog and lower ceilings across the area this
morning that is dropping conditions down to mvfr and to ifr at
times. expect any impacts to be in central ohio and into
pennsylvania away from the lakeshore. fog and ceilings should
dissipate by mid morning and scattered clouds and vfr conditions are
expected through the remainder of the period.

light winds are expected this morning at around 5 knots out of
the north-northeast that will increase to 5-10 knots throughout
the day. winds will slowly veer to be out of the east then to
the south by the end of the taf period at around 5 knots.


outlook...mainly vfr, but with patchy non-vfr possible in
fog/mist early in the mornings on saturday and sunday.

&&

.marine...
northeasterly winds at 5-15 knots will continue across lake erie
through this evening as high pressure builds eastward across the
region. there`s a low chance of waterspouts this morning with
chances decreasing mid morning. as the high moves off to the east,
winds will shift to be out south at 5-10 knots by saturday morning
and persist through sunday night. southwesterly winds at 5-15 knots
will take hold across the lake to start next week. waves throughout
the weekend into early next week should be on the low end at
generally less than 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...03
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
678
fxus63 kiwx 281609
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1209 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures continue through saturday, but warmer and
more humid conditions return early next week. heat indices
are expected to reach into the mid to upper 90s by next
tuesday.

- dry weather continues through sunday with just a slight chance of
showers and storms north of the toll road sunday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 315 am edt fri aug 28 2026

an overall quiet weather period will continue through early next
week. the main highlight will be a warming trend beginning
second half of the weekend into tuesday.

longwave upper trough from james bay to northeast conus will depart
to the east tonight with a short wave mid level ridge expected to
build into the western great lakes by daybreak saturday. lingering
low level thermal trough associated with the upper trough will
remain anchored locally today, and this should provide largely a
persistence forecast in terms of max temps this afternoon
(upper 70s to lower 80s). some very weak sfc based instability
is expected far south/southeast, but large scale subsidence
should prevent any afternoon shower development today. an
expansive low level anticyclone from southeast canada to the mid
ms river valley will keep a light wind field in place today. a
weak lake breeze may develop due to this weak gradient but
should be tempered by minimum land/lake temperature
differentials.

the western periphery of this anticyclone will linger across the
region tonight into saturday. given relatively dry airmass in place,
clear skies, and light winds, expecting another night of good
radiational cooling with a potential of some shallow patchy fog.
sheared vorticity maximum associated with pacific jet
accompanying incoming upper level ridging should promote some
increasing high clouds late tonight into early saturday.

low level warm advection will commence on saturday, but lingering
effects from western extent of low level anticyclone should keep
advective fields week. this should result in only a few degrees of
warming for saturday in comparison to that of today. stronger low
level southwesterlies will shift east into the local area saturday
night into sunday. the strongest moisture transport will likely be
mid level in nature late saturday. convection is likely to develop
during the day saturday across the upper ms valley at the nose of
the stronger low level flow, but given lackluster downstream low
level moisture profiles locally, currently not expecting
measurable precip as far east as local area saturday night into
early sunday as an accompanying short wave tracks into the area.
sunday will be noticeably warmer as stronger southwest low
level flow allows plains thermal ridge to shift reach the
southern great lakes.

incoming upper level ridge should be slightly dampened by an
upper trough across the dakotas late weekend into monday.
eastward progression of this pattern will allow some veering of
low level flow and eastward advection of richer low level
moisture to the southern great lakes/ohio valley by monday. it
is possible there could be enough elevated instability across
the north for isolated shower/storm late sunday night/early
monday before a more aggressive push of warmer mid level temps
for monday.

the beginning of next work week will feature much above normal
temperatures and relatively higher sfc dew points. peak
afternoon heat indices are expected to reach low-mid 90s for
monday and possibly into mid-upper 90s for tuesday. rain chances
should remain low mon-tue as warm mid level profiles likely
suppress any sfc/near sfc convection. medium range guidance does
agree fairly well that the dakotas upper trough should dampen
ridge enough by wednesday to allow for southward cold frontal
push and perhaps some chance of showers/storms clipping southern
great lakes where low chance pops have been maintained.
deterministic and individual ensemble members begin to exhibit
much greater spread post-wednesday regarding longitudinal ridge
axis position and amplitude of the ridge. overall pattern
supports continuation of above normal temperatures though much
of next week, but extent of heat and storm chances still of
lower confidence toward end of this forecast valid period given
this uncertainty in details with longwave pattern.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1208 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

high pressure will continue to promote vfr conditions and light
winds through the taf cycle. there may be some patchy, shallow,
br formation again toward daybreak saturday, though coverage
and point chances for vis restrictions remain too low for a
mention.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
664
fxus63 kdtx 281036
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 am edt fri aug 28 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures through saturday with mainly dry
conditions.

- increasing chances for showers and storms through next week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through the taf period as high pressure
moves across the region today and tonight. residual moisture and
daytime heating my be enough to generate a scattered cumulus field
this afternoon. cloud bases to around 5kft may become briefly bkn
before decreasing this evening with increasing high clouds to follow
tonight. light northerly winds flip to the south-southwest this
afternoon into the evening with the progression of the surface high
pressure to the east.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 am edt fri aug 28 2026

discussion...

high pressure will center over the great lakes this morning and
afternoon, supporting a largely dry forecast. a weak mid-level
shortwave will traverse the area early this evening, bringing a very
low chance to generate an isolated showers across the tri-cities to
thumb. weak mid-level capping and negligible instability keeps the
possibility of this low. high pressure to shift into new england
tomorrow as mid-level flow becomes increasingly zonal with little
forcing locally. this will support dry conditions through much of
tomorrow.

attention will turn upstream tomorrow night as well established
southerly flow across the plains helps initiate and support sustained
convection. this activity will likely progress eastward as an mcs
towards the great lakes. as is often the case with these systems,
convection will encounter little instability and weaker shear with
eastward extend, favoring a reduction in both intensity and coverage
before reaching se mi. some remnant shower or thunderstorm activity
could survive into the area sunday, but confidence in timing and
coverage remains low.

of potential greater consequence through the sunday to monday
timeframe will be the placement of an increasingly defined low-level
theta-e gradient/baroclinic zone across the great lakes. current
guidance focuses the stronger isentropic ascent and associated
precipitation across northern lower michigan, clipping portions of
the northern portion of the forecast area, leaving much of se mi
dry. this scenario is reflected in the very warm nbm temperature
forecast, with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s sunday and
up to 90 in the urban areas by monday. confidence in temperatures at
this range are considerably lower than these values would suggest as
only a modest southward displacement of the projected
ascent/precipitation would introduce substantially greater cloud
coverage and potentially prolonged rainfall across a larger portion
of the cwa. this southward shift could hold portions of the region in
the 70s to low 80s sunday and establish a much sharper north-south
temperature gradient on monday.

there is slightly better convergence between model output of a more
northward advancement of the theta-e gradient tuesday as southerly
flow increases warm advection into the great lakes which would then
favor well above normal temperatures. but overall next week does
highlight the potential for a more active period of showers and
thunderstorms and increased flood risk should the convergence zone
fail to make appreciable northward progress by the midweek period.

marine...

high pressure in place through the day maintaining light winds and
dry weather. influence of said high wanes tomorrow as it shifts to
the northeast with the central great lakes holding on its westernmost
fringe. this allows for modest southwest winds to develop during the
day with gusts holding aob 20kts. active pattern returns by late
sunday as developing low pressure over the northern plains lifts a
warm front through the area ushering in a more humid airmass leading
numerous shower/storm chances into the new work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...am
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.