Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
616
fxus61 kcle 070713
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
313 am edt wed oct 7 2026

.what has changed...
there are no changes in the forecast through the end of the
week. there is increasing forecast confidence that the remnant
tropical system impacting the northern gulf coast region late
this week will move through the ohio valley this weekend into
early next week with widespread rainfall possible.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions with seasonable to above average temperatures
expected to continue through saturday.

2) the forecast is now increasingly looking wetter over the
weekend with the remnants of a tropical system from the gulf
region moving through the ohio valley.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
we have fair weather with mostly clear skies this morning
thanks to high pressure still incontrol nearby. the high
pressure system will slowly move eastwards today and a cold
front will approach the area from the northwest this evening.
ahead of the cold front, southwesterly flow will increase today
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the midday and
afternoon hours. blue skies and lots of sunshine today will
favor warmer high temps this afternoon, climbing into the lower
70s for nwpa and neoh. mid to upper 70s are expected this
afternoon across north central and northwest ohio. a mainly dry
cold front will move through later this evening. there could be
a couple spotty rain showers along the frontal passage over far
neoh and nwpa this evening, but most areas will not see any
rainfall. a slightly cooler and breezy northwest flow will
follow behind the front late tonight and thursday. another high
pressure system will build in over the ohio valley for thursday
and friday with high temps closer to seasonable averages for
early october, middle 60s to a few low 70s. relatively quiet and
dry weather will continue through most of saturday before some
changes arrive later in the weekend.

key message 2...
the tropical system that is currently developing in the gulf of
america and will impact the northern gulf coast region later
this week may track across the ohio valley later this weekend,
bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. forecast
guidance and confidence is now increasing for the remnant low
pressure system will track across the ohio valley saturday night
through monday with widespread showers and isolated thunder.
ahead of the system on saturday, high temperatures may climb
back upwards in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees thanks to some
subsidence around the approaching remnant tropical system. it
will continue to stay warm and somewhat humid sunday and monday
with the influx of tropical moisture over the region. despite
rain chances likely sunday and monday, high temps will still
reach the upper 60s to low 70s. it appears that a cold front
will arrive and move through late monday with additional rain
chances and cooler weather by next tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr is expected through the taf period with some high clouds
accompanying a weak cold front this afternoon. winds will be out
of the south at around 10 knots for the first few hours of the
taf period before shifting to the southwest and increasing to 8
to 14 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots after daybreak and
through this afternoon. winds will diminish to around 10 knots
this evening with flow becoming more westerly towards the end of
the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain showers on sunday.

&&

.marine...
the winds have already started to increase from the south and
southwest over lake erie this morning. bouys are showing winds
already 15 to 20 knots with the offshore flow as of 3 am. the
small craft advisory will go into effect shortly and continues
through late afternoon for the central nearshore and late
evening for the eastern nearshore zones. that end times for the
sca may need some adjustments or extensions if the elevated
winds linger longer than anticipated. a cold front will move
across the lake this evening with winds shifting from the
northwest overnight around 15 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet.
marginal sca conditions may continue late tonight into thursday
with the northwest flow and waves up to 4 feet possible. that
will be something for us to monitored with futures marine
forecast updates. high pressure will build back over lake erie
thursday through friday night. a onshore flow of 8 to 15 knots
will linger through friday afternoon with a gradually shift from
the south by friday night. the offshore southerly flow 10 to 15
knots is expected on saturday. there is some forecast
uncertainty on the wind flow and direction saturday night
through sunday because of the potential for a remnant tropical
low that will track across ohio valley late this weekend. winds
may be shifting around depending of that low track.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez144>146.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
092
fxus63 kiwx 070515
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
115 am edt wed oct 7 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather continues through saturday with
highs generally in the 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

- the next chance of rain arrives on sunday associated with the
remnants of a tropical system. no significant impacts are
expected with this event.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 113 am edt wed oct 7 2026

quiet weather to persist through the end of the week. a 130+ kt
upper level jet and attendant pv anomaly passes through the great
lakes later today. however, we remain in the unfavorable right exit
region of this jet streak. better cva also passes to the north and
lags well behind the associated surface front. modest return flow
ahead of this front will push highs near 80f (particularly in our
s/sw) but surface dewpoints remain in the 50s and forecast soundings
show very dry/stable and capped profiles. no precip expected with
this frontal passage and likely just some high-based clouds at times
through tonight. another broad low level anticyclone then settles
into the upper midwest on thursday on the downstream side of large
western conus ridge. highs on thu drop back to around 70f with
dewpoints around 40f. surface high passes over our area thu night
and return flow starts again by late friday. several deterministic
00z models generate some light qpf along the associated warm front/
theta-e surge but nbm is holding dry. wouldn`t be surprised if we
have to add a low chance pop or sprinkle mention fri night but will
hold off for now.

attention then turns to the remnants of what will likely become
hurricane isaias in the gulf over the next few days. latest 00z
guidance showing a westward shift in the associated rain shield that
now clips much of our area with at least some light rain on sunday.
nbm pop`s now over 60% for much of our se cwa. still not expecting
any appreciable impacts from this event though. even a widespread 1-
1.5" should be tolerable given recent dry conditions and that is
definitely on the high-end of possible outcomes. qpf amounts could
easily be much lower. some breezy conditions also possible but again
not strong enough to be impactful.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 113 am edt wed oct 7 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals, with strengthening
southerly flow shifting west into the afternoon and evening
hours. gusts up to around 21kts possible in the afternoon,
mainly at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
881
fxus63 kdtx 070643
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
243 am edt wed oct 7 2026

.key messages...

- warm today with highs well into the 70s.

- dry conditions with cool to seasonable temperatures thursday and
friday; chilly thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

- much warmer saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees.

- next significant chance of rain arrives for the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...

copious amounts of upper level energy over central canada will lead
to a pronounced upper level trough over the great lakes and
particularly over new england on thursday. the 00z dtx raob revealed
a 500 mb height of 574 dam. heights look to fall and bottom out
around 558 dam over central sections of the cwa thursday morning,
per 00z euro. today will be a mild day ahead of a mostly dry cold
front tracking through. an 850 mb thermal ridge of 12 to 15 c
translate through during the mid-day, but mixing depths more than
likely come up short, maintaining highs well into the 70s, supported
by 925 mb temps of 17 to 18 c. an upper level jet streak racing
through northern lower michigan offers up a slight chance of showers
across the northern half of the cwa, as 700/500 mb cold pools (-6 c/-
24) track across. mid level lapse rates will be steep, and moisture
enhancement from saginaw bay/lake huron certainly seems sufficient,
with even isolate thunderstorms possible over lake huron with capes
aoa 500 j/kg.

a cool-down is expected to end workweek as 850 mb temps bottom out
at 3 to 4 c thursday night. there is some concern for temps to reach
into the low to mid 30s, although with the center of high pressure
over the ohio valley, winds may fail to fully decouple, keeping mins
elevated in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

an active weather pattern as we head into the weekend. a strong warm
front over the central plains/midwest thursday lifts through the
great lakes regions friday night. a low level jet core (45+ knots)
looks to track through northern lower michigan, with the showalter
index only at zero or slightly negative. thus, euro ensembles
suggesting just a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers. outgoing nbm
pops are below 14 percent, and probably ok as long as the jet core
tracks farther north.

really impressive warm air/ridging building in on saturday ahead of
the soon-to-be-named ts isaias coming out of the western gulf coast
states saturday night. 850 mb temps advertised to reach near 20 c
over lower michigan saturday evening. high temperatures aoa 80
degrees come into play, per euro ensembles. record highs for the day
reside in the mid 80s for reference. based on the pressure
gradient/pattern, looks like tri-cities/flint vicinity are set up
for the warmest readings.

the second half of the weekend into monday could be very wet, as the
hurricane center official track brings the remnants of the tropical
system into the central ohio valley by sunday evening, in line with
the euro solution. nbm pops are taking a more conservative approach
for sunday through sunday night. still, there are too many variables
(such as strength, areal size, and potential deflection to the east
by the time it reaches this latitude) this far out to make the call
one way or the other.

&&

.marine...

moderate to strong southwesterly winds gradually weaken through the
morning as northern ontario low pressure pivots into the james bay
slackening the local gradient. surface cold front set to cross the
central great lakes over the course of the day today though with a
weaker gradient, northwesterly winds favored to only peak in the
20kt range- strongest over northern lake huron. reinforcing mid-
level disturbance arrives over the great lakes wednesday night
deepening mid-upper troughing overhead leading to an uptick in nw
winds towards 30kts for northern huron for thursday. midwestern
surface high pressure eventually builds into the central lakes
thursday night-friday promoting diminishing winds to close out the
week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1046 pm edt tue oct 6 2026

aviation...

an approaching surface warm front and departure of surface high
pressure to the east during the early morning will sustain a light
south-southwest wind throughout the night. some borderline llws is
possible at fnt and mbs overnight. current sfc observations at mbs
suggest enough low level mixing to hold off mention of llws through
the morning. a weak cold front will pass across se mi wed afternoon.
little moisture will limit cloud coverage to just scattered to
perhaps broken vfr based strato along/ahead of the front. diurnal
mixing will be supportive of afternoon wind gusts around 20 knots.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast today and tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet wednesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.