Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
875
fxus61 kcle 211848
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
248 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

.what has changed...
overall, the key messages remain unchanged. there`s still
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms on sunday,
however confidence in the timing and location of convective
initiation is still low.

&&

.key messages...
1.) unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through sunday.
a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on sunday,
especially along and south of u.s. route 30.

2.) variable temperatures expected next week with rain chances
increasing by late wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
warm air advection will result in increasing temperatures
across the area through sunday. expect low temperatures in the
40s and 50s tonight with highs reaching the mid 60s and lower
70s sunday afternoon. depending on cloud cover and any showers
during the day sunday, a few spots in southern zones may climb
into the mid to upper 70s.

there`s still potential for isolated to scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms along or behind a cold front on sunday,
although confidence in the placement and timing of convective
initiation remains low at this time. there will certainly be
sufficient shear/mucape/lapse rates to allow for the development
of stronger storms, however several forecast soundings from
cams place a capping inversion across the majority of the area,
which would significantly limit the severe weather potential.
there`s also the possibility of some showers and perhaps
thunderstorms associated with the passage of the cold front
earlier in the day sunday, which could stabilize the atmosphere
over the local area and further limit the severe weather threat.

if the cap manages to break, sufficient destabilization occurs,
and/or convection develops earlier than anticipated, all severe
weather hazards will be on the table, although damaging wind
gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns. based on the
current forecast mesoscale environment, the best instability and
potential for severe weather will likely be south of the u.s.
route 30 corridor, although isolated strong storms can`t be
ruled out to the north. it`s possible that storms develop close
to the southeastern cwa border and intensify as they move
south/southeast later in the day sunday.

key message 2...
light cold air advection showers (possibly a mix of rain/snow) can`t
be ruled out across nw pa late sunday into monday. otherwise,
dry weather is expected through the middle of the week before
precipitation chances increase as a system crosses the area
late wednesday through thursday. generally expect rain with this
system, although a rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out in cold air
advection on friday.

temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit during the week. monday
and friday will be the coldest days of the week with highs in
the 40s expected and thursday`s current forecast highs are in
the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. temperatures will likely be
below freezing sunday night and monday night with widespread
20s likely monday night.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
a mixed bag of conditions ranging from vfr to lifr are currently
impacting the area this afternoon. as high pressure continues to
nudge over the area, conditions should steadily increase to vfr
for all terminals by 00z tonight. these conditions should
persist for much of the period until a cold front approaches
from the west sunday morning. highest confidence in diminished
conditions are behind this cold front, however scattered
prefrontal showers have the potential to lower conditions to
mvfr. given lower confidence in timing of pops, opted to handle
the end of the taf period with vcsh for western terminals and
prob30 for eastern.

light and variable winds will persist into this evening before a
warm front lifts north and winds become prevailing from the
south-southwest at 5-12 knots. isolated gusts up to 20 knots are
possible tonight, but the bigger wind concern will be
associated with the strong llj that pushes across the area. this
will bring a period of llws from 03-12z of 45 to 50 knots. the
llws will diminish come sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain showers/thunderstorms and
low ceilings on sunday with another cold front.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions are expected to persist through late this
afternoon as winds linger from the east at less than 10 knots.
tonight, a warm front will lift north across lake erie, shifting
winds to become southerly and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. late
sunday morning, an associated cold front will push east,
allowing for another shift in winds as they become north-
northwesterly at 15 to 20 knots into monday morning. this
enhanced onshore flow may allow for waves to build to 3 to 5
feet across the central basin. will have to continue to monitor
this period for the potential need for a small craft advisory.

winds will gradually weaken to 5 to 10 knots from the northwest
as the low shifts east off the mid-atlantic coast. these light
winds will persist through tuesday as high pressure builds into
the region. another mid- to late-week system will likely
increase winds once again.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 211744
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
144 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

.key messages...

- there is a 30-60 percent chance of rain on sunday with a few
thunderstorms possible south of us-24. severe weather is not
expected.

- highs drop into the 40s for monday but slowly climb back to
the 60s by thursday.

- dry conditions are expected monday through wednesday but
additional rain is likely on thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 145 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential late tomorrow. a
midlevel shortwave is currently entering the northern great lakes
but becomes increasingly sheared with time as the mid/upper level
flow briefly dampens and becomes more zonal late tonight. the most
notable aspect of the system at this point is strong low level waa.
lows tonight likely remain in the 50s given steady southwest
wind/waa. this strong w/sw flow advects modest surface dewpoints
(mid/upper 50s) into the area along with a notable eml (midlevel
lapse rates over 8 c/km). however, this also results in a strong
capping inversion around 750mb for much of the day. the trailing
surface cold front that crosses our cwa tomorrow arrives very early,
reaching the us-24 corridor by 15-16z. this significantly limits the
potential for surface-based diurnal destabilization and, outside
some broad low level convergence, this front doesn`t have much
available forcing for ascent (certainly not enough to overcome a
strong cap, at least until a secondary shortwave arrives later
tomorrow evening). in fact, forecast soundings show virtually no
opportunity for surface-based convection with a strong cap ahead of
the front and significant 1000-850mb caa behind the front. there is
still some postfrontal mucape available as midlevel lapse rates
remain on the high side but depth and strength of low level stable
layer suggests small hail as the only potential threat. by the time
the secondary shortwave arrives and diurnal destabilization is
maximized (21-03z), the surface front is already well se of our area.
will maintain a thunderstorm mention and won`t rule out some small
hail south of us-24 but overall the severe risk appears very low.

rest of the forecast is relatively quiet as canadian high pressure
settles into the region for the mon-wed period. highs monday drop
into the 40s with 850mb temps near -5c. slow but steady moderation
expected on tue with waa really ramping up late wed. this will be
our next chance of precip, particularly into thu as another modest
wave crosses the northern great lakes and sends a sharp cold front
through our area. this system looks very similar to sunday with
decent theta-e advection ahead of the front but lackluster mid/upper
level support for ascent in our area. still plenty of time for
adjustments here though.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1225 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

pesky ifr stratus deck at kfwa should mix out here shortly with
mainly vfr to follow this afternoon into sunday morning. there
has also been some patches of mvfr haze across northern in so
far today. expectations are for this to lift north by 19/20z as
as winds veer to the south-southwest and pick up a bit. llws
conditions are still anticipated in advance of a cold front
tonight, with fropa anticipated around 11/12z sun at ksbn, and
toward midday at kfwa. winds will turn northerly in it`s wake
with flight conditions possibly lowering into mvfr. anafrontal
forcing then generates increasing chances for showers sunday
afternoon, mainly at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from noon sunday to 3 pm edt monday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 211904
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
304 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

.key messages...

- strong cold front moving through sunday brings a good chance of
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm near the ohio border.

- a significant cool down follows the front with below normal
temperatures for monday.

&&

.discussion...

clouds and southeast flow have led to a slow climb in temperatures
through the early afternoon hours with many locations just recently
breaking into the low 40s. high temperatures in the low 50s is still
very possible as we are dealing with a warm front approaching from
the southwest offering much clearer skies and winds slightly veered
more to the south which will take some of the influence of the cold
lakes away. the clearing skies on the west side of the state has
already allowed many locations to hit 50.

the surface low associated with the warm front is over northern mn
this afternoon and will track ese through northern mi overnight
reaching lake huron sunday morning. the nighttime hours look dry as
the lead push of theta e and fgen is all to the north over northern
lake huron and into lake superior. warm advection does ramp up in
advance of the cold front leading to a warmer night locally. temps
are expected to only drop to the low 40s. the cold front will slowly
drop through southern mi later tonight, possibly reaching the ohio
border by 12z sunday. increasing moisture, strengthening mid level
lapse rates, and fgen along the elevated portions of the front will
help form a band of rain that will settle southward through the area
sunday. there are some model clipping the far southern cwa with some
elevated instability so a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but not
expecting anything widespread or severe.

the somewhat zonal flow pattern aloft being parallel to the front,
will offer an initial wind shift with the front to the northwest but
only drop 850mb temps from the teens above zero down to the single
digits in the afternoon. further cooling comes sunday night where
850mb temps go negative with this thermal trough holding into monday
night. lows sunday and monday nights will drop into the 20s. after a
cool monday with highs in the 40s, high pressure drifting through
southern mi and the ohio valley will bring southwesterly return flow
mid week pushing the colder air back north and bringing high temps
back into the 50s and 60s. next chance of rain comes wed/thurs with
the next cold front dropping through the region.

&&

.marine...

low pressure in the process of sliding across the northern great
lakes this afternoon eventually tracks through the central lakes
tonight. this system drags a cold front across the region over the
course of sunday supporting additional scattered rain showers and
potentially a thunderstorm or two over the southern great lakes by
sunday evening. moderate north to north-northeast flow develops
behind the front with peak gusts occuring latter half of the day
sunday/sunday night. given the fetch, the southern half of lake
huron will see the strongest wind gusts (20-25kts) with the rest of
the region holding closer to the 15-20kt range. onshore flow brings
higher wave action into the thumb nearshore waters warranting a
small craft advisory into monday. strong high pressure builds in
behind the front on monday, then the next cold front is expected to
glance northern lake huron by late tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 128 pm edt sat mar 21 2026

aviation...

persitent area of mvfr stratus held within prevailing southeast flow
will gradually vacate the region through the afternoon as winds veer
to southwest and greater warming commences. vfr holds this evening
and overnight as periods of thicker mid level cloud move through at
times. an increase in wind speed off the surface will introduce a
window of low level wind shear early tonight. frontal boundary
forecast to settle southward across the area late tonight into
sunday morning. the initial frontal passage will lead to wind shift
to northerly with a few widely scattered showers possible. trailing
area of deeper low level moisture will bring renewed mvfr stratus
and a better chance of rain from late morning into the afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet through mid afternoon. low sunday
morning, then medium sunday afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am sunday to 4 pm edt monday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......kdk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.