Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
841
fxus61 kcle 131748
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
148 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on sunday as a cold
front pushes east across the area. some storms may be severe along
and east of i71.

2) a cool down is on the horizon with near normal temperatures
returning sunday and persisting into next week.

3) an active weather pattern sticks around through next week,
resulting in the potential for multiple rounds of rain and
storms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak high pressure will drift east late today as a broad upper
level trough begins to dig south from canada. along the fringes of
this trough, multiple shortwaves are expected to move along it. the
first of the disturbances is expected to move east on sunday,
dragging an associated cold front across the area. given increased
southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary, a brief period of waa and
increased moisture advection will allow for support for shower and
thunderstorm development on sunday. in addition, a llj is expected
to nudge north sunday afternoon in conjunction with mid-level
energy. this should provide additional support for storm
development, especially across the eastern portion of the cwa. there
remains quite a bit of divergence amongst models in handling the
sunday afternoon convection as much of the forecast hinders on
whether or not the warm sector of the low is able to destabilize
enough to enhance area convection or if the timing of the boundary
inhibits some of that destabilization. if the boundary slows at all,
confidence will increase in storms becoming severe as diurnal
heating will aid in increased instability. given the atmospheric
setup, any convection that does develop should primarily be in a
linear fashion with the strong winds the primary concern, but quick
spin up or two cannot be ruled out.

though current confidence is fairly low in the severe potential and
hinders on the timing of the boundary, there is high confidence in
thunderstorms pushing east throughout the day, gradually drying from
west to east late sunday. will have to continue to monitor the
evolution of the boundary in coming model runs, but to highlight the
potential risk at this point, spc has put portions of the mahoning
valley in a day 2 slight risk with a marginal risk extending as far
west at the i71 corridor. if the boundary begins to slow, would not
be surprised if the slight is shifted even further west.

key message 2...
as the aforementioned robust cold front pushes east on sunday, a
much cooler airmass will push in behind it, allowing for below to
near normal temperatures to return for much of next week. initially
on sunday, high temperatures will be limited given widespread
precipitation expected with highs only expected to climb into the
mid 70s. overnight lows on sunday will be much cooler as
temperatures fall into the upper 40s in nw pa and the low to mid 50s
elsewhere. temperatures through tuesday will be comparable before
slowing warming back into the 80s beginning on wednesday through the
end of the week.

.key message 3...

an active pattern is expected to continue through much of next week
as a broad upper level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
slowly meanders east. this set up will present multiple chances of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, supported by mid-
level energy and increased moisture due to persistent southwest flow
east of the trough axis. the first shortwave will push across the
area on tuesday, resulting in showers. on thursday, a more robust
surface low pressure support by a shortwave looks to move into the
area, pushing a strong cold front east. on both days there is the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms and will have to
keep an eye on them in future model runs to discern any severe
potential associated with them.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
w`erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle disturbances affect our
region through 18z/sun. at the surface, a high pressure ridge
continues to exit e`ward before a cold front begins to sweep
se`ward through our region after ~14z/sun and nears a keri to
kcak to kcmh line by 18z/sun. behind the front, another ridge
builds from the northern great plains. ahead of the cold front,
our regional surface winds trend sw`erly to wsw`erly, while
w`erly to nw`erly winds are expected behind the front. surface
wind speeds are expected to be around 10 to 15 knots through
the taf period. wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at
times, especially through ~23z/sat and behind the cold front.

dry weather and vfr are expected for the time being. as the cold
front approaches from the northwest, scattered rain showers are
expected to overspread northern oh and nw pa generally from the
west between ~06z/sun and ~13z/sun. scattered thunderstorms are
expected along and just ahead of the cold front after ~10z/sun.
brief mvfr to ifr are expected with these showers and especially
storms. the storms may produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts
up to 30 to 50 knots. widespread mvfr to ifr ceilings and
scattered rain showers are expected to accompany the upper-reaches
of the front for several hours following the surface cold front
passage.

outlook...non-vfr likely with thunderstorms and/or rain showers
sunday afternoon through sunday night. periodic showers and
thunderstorms with non-vfr are forecast this tuesday afternoon
through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with
winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early sunday. a
cold front will cross the lake on sunday, allowing winds to
shift to the northwest. a period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is
likely in the western basin of lake erie sunday
afternoon/evening, but confidence in small craft advisory
conditions occurring is low at this point. headlines may be
needed if winds trend a bit higher.

from there, small craft advisories/beach hazards statements may
be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching
strong cold front wednesday. nbm guidance suggests that winds
could reach or exceed 30 knots on thursday so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...jaszka
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
350
fxus63 kiwx 131025
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
625 am edt sat jun 13 2026

.key messages...

- a marginal risk for severe weather edges into areas west of
us-69 for tonight. the main risk is damaging wind, but hail
and heavy rain are possible. the risk is expected to wane
farther east of i-69.

- the middle of next week looks cooler than normal and
unsettled with chances for showers and storms increasing
tuesday and through the remainder of the week.

- at least a moderate swim risk is forecast for sunday as waves
reach 3 to 5 feet. breaking to life-threatening waves and
currents are expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 337 am edt sat jun 13 2026

warm advection reestablishes itself across the area today as surface
high pressure shifts eastward. as such, a theta-e plume reaches the
area this afternoon and tonight and this helps set up a potential
severe weather chance as dew points reach back into the 60s during
the afternoon. the atmosphere appears capped according to nam and
hrrr bufkit soundings across the area during the daytime. finally,
the moist advection reaches the area around 21 to 3z, which may be
enough to initiate some showers and perhaps storms, but most models
hold things off until after 00z, maybe even until closer to 6z as
the cold front arrives with more succinct forcing. instability does
begin to wane in the boundary layer after sunset, but elevated
instability does appear to remain into the overnight ahead of the
cold front closer to 6z. hrrr soundings are fairly moist and so
perhaps heavy rain that leads to flooding could be an issue. the 18z
namnest was showing a slowed squall line that hanged out lk mi.
while that`s an outlier, slower storm motions in this environment
could lead to flooding. gusty to damaging wind and hail also appear
possible, although the moist environment would probably lead to
melting hail as opposed to severe hail within an environment less
conducive to stronger updrafts to loft hail.

rain and maybe storms appear to linger in areas east of in-15 sunday
morning before departing. 20 to 30 mph gusts will be possible behind
the cold front sunday morning as the gradient takes time to relax
and the low level jet departs. a much cooler and drier air mass is
around sunday and continues monday with highs in the 70s and dew
points in the 40s and 50s as surface high pressure moves through.

with the upper low still centered across southern canada, spokes of
vorticity continue to pinwheel around and look to affect the area
starting tuesday. there appears to be weak, about 500 j/kg of
mucape, instability as surface dew points only just reach 60 degrees
with a weak theta-e plume swinging through. effective shear only
briefly achieves 30 kts so this appears to be more of a general
thunder type event. another, more vigorous shortwave passes through
the lower great lakes later tuesday into wednesday and this brings
another chance for showers and storms. the question with this one
will be if we can get the warm front north of the area in time as by
00z wed evening, the ecmwf is only just doing so. at this point, the
gfs and ecmwf have different timing and weaker instability across
the area so we`ll have to see how the nam handles it when it gets
closer to get an understanding on instability.

thursday is a transition day back to drier weather that continues
through friday before more unsettled weather returns for one or both
of the weekend days.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 135 am edt sat jun 13 2026

drier weather continues with vfr conditions through the day. a very
moist column of air begins to move into the area after sunset,
but it`ll likely wait until 3 to 5z (6z and there after at fwa)
to get adverse flight conditions in, probably along with
thunderstorm chances.

we do see gusty winds reaching 20 to 25 kts this afternoon before
relaxing this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
445
fxus63 kdtx 131730
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
130 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a few embedded strong thunderstorms work through
southeast michigan this evening into sunday morning.

- dry monday, but showers and possible storms return tuesday
afternoon and late wednesday/wednesday night.

- heaviest rainfall looks to be wednesday night, with the potential to
exceed 1 inch.

&&

.aviation...

well mixed conditions will persist through the balance of the
daylight hours - supporting gusty southwest winds. otherwise, just
some scattered fair weather cumulus - especially north of the
detroit terminals.

showers are expected to develop late this evening across west and
central lower michigan in advance of a cold front. the initial
development will be capable of producing a few thunderstorms
- which may affect the saginaw and flint airspace around midnight.
overall, a scattered shower pattern will remain in place in the
vicinity of the slow moving front, including after frontal passage
as rather deep moisture will remain in place through the end of the
forecast window.

ceilings will lower late tonight and remain mvfr through much of
sunday. the southwest winds this evening will become variable
around the front - then take on a north/northeast direction early
sunday - before becoming northwest later sunday.

d21/dtw convection... chances for a thunderstorm within the showers
late tonight into sunday are low.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for a thunderstorm after 08z sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 356 am edt sat jun 13 2026

discussion...

mostly clear skies start the day, but regional radar showing a
cluster of showers upstream over the midwest highlights what`s to
come later this evening as a cold front moves in. dry conditions
prevail locally today as ohio valley high pressure and zonal flow
aloft maintain stable conditions, but there is a low probability for
some showers in the northern saginaw valley and thumb midday as a
surge of low-level theta-e arrives from the south. low to mid-level
southwest flow strengthens as the high migrates toward the
appalachians and the cold front approaches from the midwest. high
temps are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s with the southwest
wind becoming gusty to 20 to 30 mph by mid-late afternoon. parts of
the saginaw valley and thumb could see gusts up to 35 mph as daytime
mixing taps into higher momentum within a llj passing across
northern lower mi.

a spoke of vorticity rotating around the closed low over northern
ontario induces a period of gradual height falls this evening,
causing the cold front to sink southward into the area. this will
trigger a broken line of showers with embedded thunderstorms late
this evening. the highest coverage looks to set up north of i-69
where a feed of marginal instability will be directed and cin will
be lowest. a window for isolated strong to severe storms and briefly
heavy rain exists between 11pm to 4am while overlap exists between
frontal forcing, marginal sbcape, and deep layer wind shear of 35 to
40 kt. primary threat appears to be wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph given
the storm mode and available momentum in the column. signal among ml
severe weather probability tools corroborates the spc day 1 marginal
risk for the area. showers with embedded thunder will continue
overnight as the front progresses southward and weak low pressure
develops along it.

a flare-up in shower activity is forecast sunday morning as pva and
divergence aloft spread in ahead of the mid-level shortwave arriving
from the midwest. frontogenetical forcing will contribute to some
enhancement of lift on the cool side of the front and some areas may
see multiple rounds of moderate showers. coverage will then
gradually taper off through the afternoon with post-frontal
temperatures much cooler in the upper 60s near the lakeshore and 70s
elsewhere.

longwave troughing aloft dominates the great lakes early next week
with temperatures remaining on the cool side of average. dry
conditions are favored monday, then showers and storms reenter the
picture tuesday through thursday as a series of shortwaves traverse
the region. there is a signal for a more vigorous wave to track
through late wednesday into thursday, with potential for heavy
rainfall and/or severe weather in the region as divergence aloft and
strong kinematics accompany the wave. lref grand ensemble data
indicates a 30% chance for portions of the area to exceed 1" during
this period.

marine...

high pressure has expanded across the southern lakes while a cold
front over the northern lakes starts drifting south reaching central
lake huron this evening. this will help keep a fairly tight pressure
gradient in place across the region today with southwesterly winds
gusting to around 30 knots over saginaw bay and the tip of the thumb
this afternoon. a small craft advisory is in effect through 10pm to
account for the wind and waves. the front will also offer a round of
showers and thunderstorms affecting northern lake huron through the
day, and the rest of the area through the night. the front then
sweeps east by sunday morning. winds will stay elevated around 20
knots, but out of the northwest sunday.

hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected tonight
through early sunday as a slow moving cold front tracks southward
across the area. most areas are forecast to receive a quarter inch
or less of rainfall. localized areas that see repeated rounds of
moderate showers/storms may receive in excess of 1 inch and ponding
of low-lying or poor drainage areas is possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...tf
marine.......drk
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.