Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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936
fxus61 kcle 172330
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
630 pm est tue feb 17 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes at the moment. the potential for snow
accumulations across parts of the area during the second half of
the weekend into monday will be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.key messages...
1) remaining warmer than average with periodic chances for rain
through friday. rivers will continue to be monitored for ice jam
potential, though the overall risk for flooding is fairly low.

2) temperatures trend colder this weekend into early next week,
with some combination of synoptic and lake effect snow possible
the second half of the weekend into the start of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will lift east-northeast across the local area
wednesday morning/early afternoon, as occluded/filling low
pressure moves across the upper midwest and towards lake
superior. the combination of low-mid level isentropic lift along
and ahead of the front, mid-level height falls/positive
vorticity advection associated with a shortwave that will pass
just to our north, and the left-exit region of an upper jet
streak will support a round of showers...especially from west to
east wednesday morning/early afternoon. there may be some
lighter rain tonight ahead of the approaching warm front, though
weaker lift and dry low-levels may allow portions of the area to
remain rain-free until morning. a rumble of thunder can`t be
ruled out with activity wednesday morning/early afternoon given
some modest elevated instability advecting in. mainly dry
weather is expected wednesday afternoon and night behind the
warm front, though will need to watch northeast oh/northwest pa
for a few showers/perhaps a storm wednesday evening as a cold
front begins sinking back in from the northeast. overall
rainfall amounts with this system will generally be in the
0.10-0.25" range, a bit less south, and perhaps locally up to
0.50" if slightly more "robust" convection can play out farther
north with the warm front wednesday morning.

after a brief dry break, low pressure deepens and lifts into the
great lakes thursday into friday. a warm front ahead of that low
is expected to lift into the area thursday night, quickly
followed by an occluding cold front friday morning. rain
potential peaks thursday night into friday morning overall, with
a large dry slot expected to punch in behind the front later in
the day friday. there may again be a bit of thunder thursday
night or early friday with sufficient elevated instability for
it. once again, outside of any locally more robust convection
the qpf/rain amounts are generally expected to remain under
0.50" from late thursday through friday.

outside of rain timing/amounts, there will be a couple pushes of
gustier winds over the next few days. southwest wind gusts into
the 30-35 mph range are likely midday-afternoon on wednesday
behind the warm front. another window for potentially stronger
winds is behind the occluding cold front on friday, when 30-40
mph type gusts appear reasonably possible. the occluding/
weakening nature of the system should limit the potential for
much more wind than that, though it`ll be gusty.

the warmest day overall will be wednesday, when the western
half or so of the area should get well into the 60s behind the
warm front and morning rain...a bit cooler into far northeast oh
and northwest pa. we`ll still be well into the 50s on thursday,
with potential for some spots to over-perform and hit 60 if
there`s a bit more sun. friday`s highs will again be in the 50s
(perhaps pushing 60 in our southeast depending on the timing of
the front), though with a non-dirunal curve with falling
temperatures expected behind the cold front.

run-off from ongoing/recent snow melt and our relatively minor
rain events will continue through the end of the week, with some
rivers remaining ice-covered. the generally gradual nature of
the run-off should keep rises on the slower side, with reports
indicating that some (but not all) local rivers have already
cleared out most of their ice. given that some rivers still
remain ice-covered with thick ice, with additional melting and
modest rises continuing, potential for ice jams and isolated
flooding in prone locations can`t be ruled out...though the
gradual nature of the thaw/snow melt and generally light rain
events are helping to avoid more significant concerns.


key message 2...
a dry start to the weekend is expected as temperatures return to
more typical levels for mid february. the forecast for the
second half of the weekend and start of next week takes on a
more wintry flavor. ridging will briefly amplify over the
rockies as a decaying west-based -nao block persists near
hudson bay, which will allow a trough to quickly carve out over
the eastern u.s. as multiple shortwaves interact. this is a
favorable pattern for a deepening low/potential winter storm
along the east coast, with potential for fringe impacts locally.

the main window for snow potential appears to be late saturday
night through early monday locally. there will be potential for
the northwestern fringe of the precip shield with the developing
east coast low to graze us with wet synoptic snow saturday night
or sunday, then, there`s another window for potential synoptic
and lake-enhanced snow on the backside of the system as
troughing surface and aloft lingers sunday night into monday
and temperatures aloft become marginally cold enough for lake
enhancement. how well the various shortwaves phase, which will
significantly impact how quickly the east coast low develops and
how expansive its precip shield becomes, is the main source of
uncertainty on current guidance. overall, most scenarios paint
what would be a lighter overall snow event across the area,
though more robust solutions (better phasing and a stronger low)
could prove more impactful...especially across the snowbelt.
ridging should build in monday night into tuesday, bringing an
end to any lingering lake effect or cold advection type snow
showers across the area.

saturday will still be somewhat "mild" with highs expected to
range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, with colder values
returning sunday into early next week. the coldest overall day
looks to be monday, with highs below freezing and overnight lows
in the 10s.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
a stationary front will drape itself across northern ohio over
the next few hours with cloud bases lowering to mvfr primarily
after 06z tonight with -ra setting in and visibilities coming
down as well. ifr possible after rain sets in for a few hours
for both ceilings and visibilities through the morning hours to
the early afternoon hours wednesday. as low pressure approaches
from the west, expect winds to be on the increase out of the
southwest to 25-30kt gusts as the pressure gradient increases
significantly. rapid clearing is expected once a weak cold front
quickly follows the warm front through the area, beginning
after 20z wednesday for the western terminals.

outlook...non-vfr conditions possible late thursday into friday
in rain showers.

&&

.marine...
the main concerns for marine weather will be ice on the lake
breaking up and shifting around due to stronger winds over the
several days. lake erie remains ice covered. winds will become
northeasterly this afternoon 5 to 10 knots. easterly winds
increase to 10-20 knots tonight, then veer to southwesterly at
15-25 knots on wednesday as a warm front lifts north across
lake erie. there will be another time period of elevated winds
expected thursday night into friday as easterly winds of 15-20
knots become southwesterly at 20-25 knots with the passage of a
surface front.

multiple periods with elevated winds along with much above normal
temperatures across the region this week will continue to rot
the lake ice with ice floes are expected. shore ice may break
off and any available shipping channels may be closed. it is
important for people to stay off the ice this week or risk
getting stranded. in addition, the warmer air overspreading the
cold lake will result in areas of fog this afternoon and on
wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...26
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
644 pm est tue feb 17 2026

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected
through thursday. mild and breezy wednesday with record highs
possible.

- scattered light rain showers are likely tonight into wednesday
morning.

- additional chances for rain and maybe a few storms thursday
afternoon through thursday night.

- cooler temperatures prevail with rain/snow showers chances
over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 158 pm est tue feb 17 2026

an active weather pattern returns to the area this week with several
opportunities for rain. a developing upper level jet will allow
for several low pressure systems to impact the area this week.
scattered rain showers arrive after sunset tonight into early
wednesday morning. a stalled frontal boundary is current draped
across lower michigan near our border with nws grand rapids. a
deepening surface low moving through the upper midwest will help
lift that boundary out of the area tonight and allow for rain
to move in. locations along and southeast of us 24 may stay dry
initially in the dry slot of the system, but everyone should see
at least scattered light rain after 06-09z. additional moisture
will move into the area with this airmass overnight with pwats
up to 1" and dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50. as rain
showers lift north and overspread the area overnight,
temperatures follow a non-diurnal curve and warm into the 50s by
wednesday morning. there may also be some weak, elevated
instability overnight which may allow for a few embedded
rumbles of thunder.

with our forecast area solidly in the warm sector with an
upper level ridge centered overhead, near record to record warmth is
likely for wednesday. given strong waa and southwest wind gusts up
to 30 to 35 mph, along and south of us 30 should be well into the
mid to maybe even upper 60s wednesday afternoon! we currently have a
forecast high of 67 degrees at fort wayne tomorrow, which would tie
the daily record set back in 2017. very mild air may exacerbate fire
danger on wednesday. better fire danger will exist to our west in
illinois with a dryline setup, however, it is not out of the
question that elevated fire danger may also develop west of us 31 in
indiana tomorrow. dewpoints crash into the upper 20s wednesday
afternoon along and west of us 31, which will result in minimum
relative humidity values around 25-30%. the only thing that may
prevent elevated fire danger is the fact that the with recent
snowmelt and ground being recently thawed, fuels may be moist still.
we have not had time to really dry out, and light rain ahead
overnight will further prevent any drying out of fuels.

another opportunity for rain and maybe a few thunderstorms
arrives thursday afternoon/evening into friday. another surface
low will lift through the midwest, with convection ahead of a
cold front thursday afternoon/evening. forecast soundings show
mid level dry air to overcome thursday afternoon, with the
chances for rain amping up throughout the afternoon and evening
hours (highest after 00z friday with 60-80%). aided by a 500mb
shortwave, the environment will be sufficient to produce rain
and maybe even a few storms during the evening into the early
overnight hours. southerly winds will aid in low level moisture
return from the gulf, boosting dewpoints into the low to mid 50s
on thursday (this is trending upwards from yesterday`s model
runs). mid range model guidance does depict modest wind shear of
around 40 kts, ~500 j/kg of mucape, and mid level lapse rates
of ~8c/km. spc has a day 3 marginal risk (level 1/5) for
thursday south of fort wayne; we are not expecting severe
weather at this time but can`t rule out a few gusty storms in
our forecast area with this system. i`d suspect a majority of
the severe weather thursday to be in the vicinity of the ohio
river where dewpoints will be into the low 60s.

despite the warm week, we still have several weeks of winter to
finish off february into march. the transition into spring is often
a time of year where we can get mild days but also still can get
cold and snow. we return back to reality by the weekend with highs
in the 30s, lows in the teens, and 20-40% chances for rain/snow
showers with an upper level trough over the great lakes. cyclonic
flow and colder air may also allow for lake effect snow to return
early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 644 pm est tue feb 17 2026

strong low pressure lifting into the western great lakes will
bring deteriorating conditions overnight. warm front will pass
around 04z with some sct, light rain and mvfr ceilings. much
better chances for rain and ifr conditions will be roughly
08-15z ahead of the occluded front. better chances for ifr at
ksbn but suspect at least brief ifr at kfwa. marginal llws
criteria is also expected late tonight into wed am, again best
chances at ksbn closer to the low pressure center. as the
occluded front passes around 15z, expect quick transition to
clear skies but with sw winds gusting in the 25-30kt range for
much of the day.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 172358
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
658 pm est tue feb 17 2026

.key messages...

- patchy dense fog expected along shorelines areas of lake huron and
lake st clair through the day.

- widespread precipitation tonight through wednesday morning. all
rain is expected with a chance of freezing rain north of m 46.
rumble of thunder possible wednesday morning.

- mild temperatures persist through thursday.

- a rain/snow mix moves in by friday followed by a temperature drop
back toward mid/late february normals this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

visibilities are beginning to decrease this evening on the north
side of a developing warm front drifting just north of the state
line recently. det and mbs still being affected by the dense marine
fog with 1/4sm so will continue that tempo a bit longer. nocturnal
cooling and moisture advection will lead to widespread fog into the
overnight which will have to be monitored as obs jump around. the
front will then bring a period of widespread rain into the morning
hours before much drier air surges in for the afternoon. the
combination of fog and rain will likely drop vsbys and/or cigs into
lifr for several hours til the drier air moves in.

for dtw...denser fog off lake erie still not reaching the airport
but recent obs and satellite show fog expanding across the county.
this trend should continue as moisture continues to advect in this
evening. rain will move in around midnight and then rain and fog
will carry through the morning hours.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 200 ft and/or visibilities below 1/2sm
overnight and wednesday morning.

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and wednesday morning.

* high in precip type as all rain tonight.

* low in thunderstorms overnight and wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 318 pm est tue feb 17 2026

discussion...

foggy conditions have improved for bulk of all inland areas, so have
expired the dense fog advisory early. satellite view still indicates
some isolated spots along the lake shores of lake huron and lake st.
clair where patchy dense fog remains possible. the stationary front
has settled around the southern mi border this afternoon with a
cooler easterly flow and remaining snow pack offering variable
afternoon temperatures. locations with lower snow depth and limited
coverage of fog from earlier have managed to reach into the
lower/mid 50s. dry conditions will hold into the early evening with
the passage of a mid/upper ridge.

a strong low pressure system becoming organized in the lee of the
rockies with aide of the 170 knot southern stream jet this
afternoon. this system will lead to a surge of warm advection within
a region of good upper level divergence. strong moisture transport
with the low level jet will occur within this region sending pwats
towards 1.00 inch. the increasing moisture will feed into the
frontal slope and result in widespread precipitation moving across
southeast michigan beginning tonight. precipitation moves in around
midnight along with a return to foggy conditions as surface front
lifts back north. rain will continue through much of the morning
tomorrow before coming to an end around 11 am. average rainfall
totals reach a half inch to three quarters of an inch mainly north of
the i-69 corridor through the event. a few hours of at or a degree
or two below freezing temperatures are forecast tonight across
northern portions of the cwa in the northern thumb and bay/midland
county. warm advection will be ongoing throughout the morning, so the
window for freezing rain appears relatively short and does not
appear to rise to winter weather advisory level at this time given
lower confidence on any widespread impacts. a light glaze of ice
remains possible before temperatures warm up. isolated slick spots
will be possible in the locations that can stay at freezing or
slightly below for a longer duration than expected. temperatures will
be monitored for any adjustment to icing potential and more enhanced
messaging. a few rumbles of thunder will also be possible by mid-
late tomorrow morning given the increased sbcape and mucape values.

precipitation comes to an end by early tomorrow afternoon as the
frontal zone lifts northward and the dry slot moves in. a solid warm
sector builds across the southern mi border while a few hi-res
models depict the warm front/occlusion stalling out around the i-69
corridor. this would bring a solid north to south gradient of
temperatures tomorrow afternoon with lower 60s up towards the
detroit metro area and possibly upper 30s for far northern portions
of the cwa.

occluded low hangs out over the upper midwest into thursday while
the next wave tracking through the southern stream flow generates
the next surface low pressure system across the central plains. this
low will lift northeast into the central great lakes by friday
evening. lower pops enter the forecast during the day thursday, but
bulk of heavier precipitation will arrive towards 6-7 pm on
thursday. this low then occludes over the region bringing a chance
for a transition to rain/snow mix later in the day on friday with
any lingering light precipitation. for the weekend, the stretch of
warmer temperatures will come crashing back down to more normal
values for mid/late february.

marine...

afternoon satellite imagery shows a persistent layer of marine fog
over much of the central great lakes. a marine dense fog advisory
remains in effect until this evening for the northern half of lake
huron, and until wednesday morning for southern lake huron and st.
clair. the expectation for northern huron is that increasing
gradient flow should help mix out the marine layer earlier, but if
that fails to materialize, an extension of the advisory could be
needed this evening.

winds organize out of the east tonight with an approaching low
pressure system. a modest low-level jet moves overhead with time as
the mature system tracks northeastward across minnesota. this
supports gusts to gales over the northern half of the huron basin by
wednesday morning. a gale warning remains in place until wednesday
afternoon, before the low-level wind field weakens. this system will
also produce a period of rainfall on wednesday, possibly mixed with
snow over the northern waterways. a brief lull in dynamics ensues
thursday, favoring headline-free conditions. another period of
elevated winds arrives friday with the next low pressure system.
potential exists for gusts to gales over northern lake huron friday
morning.

hydrology...

widespread rain moves tonight and tomorrow morning. moderate
probabilities for 0.25" to 0.5" of rain are forecast along the m-59
corridor and moderate probabilities for 0.5" to 0.75" are forecast
north of i-69. the rain will occur on top of a melting snowpack that
had a snow water equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". the
combination of rain and snow melt on frozen ground may lead to rises
on area streams and rivers. ponding of water on roads is also
possible, especially where drains could be blocked by snow and/or
winter debris.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense fog advisory until 10 am est wednesday for lhz421-422-441>443-
462>464.

dense fog advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz361>363.

gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est wednesday for lhz361-362.

lake st clair...dense fog advisory until 10 am est wednesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.