Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
256
fxus61 kcle 071140
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 am edt tue apr 7 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) chilly with light lake effect snow showers with minor
accumulations through this morning.

2) warm and dry conditions midweek onward with occasional shower and
thunderstorm chances returning friday and continuing through early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
broad upper level trough will continue to swing across the lower
great lakes through tonight. lake effect rain/snow showers continue
under broad northwesterly flow and a chilly airmass characterized by
850mb temps of -10 to -15c. overall accumulations and impacts will
be minimal given road temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s
across the region. anticipate for any lingering rain/snow showers to
quickly diminish late this morning as high pressure builds overhead
from the west and ushers in a much drier airmass. remaining cooler
today with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows in
the 20s tonight. traditional cooler spots may dip into the teens
across interior northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

key message 2...
high pressure overhead on wednesday will push east through thursday
bringing a warming trend to the region. will need to keep an eye on
any fire weather concerns on wednesday as minimum rh values fall
into the 20-30% range. however, repeated rounds of rainfall over the
past week will keep 10-hr fuels above the red flag warning criteria
of 8% for ohio and 10% for pennsylvania.

an upper shortwave and surface cold front will approach from the west
on thursday. the cold front will eventually sink south across the
forecast area on friday with showers and thunderstorm chances
possible thursday and friday along and ahead of the front. high
pressure returns this weekend behind the frontal passage before
unsettled weather returns early next week as a series of upper
shortwaves move through the ohio valley.

highs in the mid to upper 50s on wednesday will rise into the 60s by
thursday and friday as the high pushes east. slightly cooler behind
the frontal passage on saturday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s
before highs rebound into the 70s by sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
snow showers continue across ne oh and nw pa this morning
impacting terminals in those locations. both kyng and keri
could see showers over the next few hours though confidence is
low that it will bring conditions down to non-vfr. snow showers
should end by midday with high pressure building in to the
region. elsewhere, vfr conditions are seen and will continue
through the taf period.

winds from kcle eastward are sustained at around 10 knots and
gusting to 15-20 knots out of the north. to the west, gusts have
subsided and winds are around 10 knots sustained. by 16-18z
gusts across all terminals should begin to subside. tonight,
winds will become light at less than 5 knots and variable but
generally have an easterly component. by the end of the taf
period, winds will shift to be out of the southeast but remain
light.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered rain showers on thursday
night through friday.

&&

.marine...
winds remain elevated across lake erie early this morning and
are currently 15-25 knots gusting up to 30 knots with waves at
4-7 feet. high pressure will build in today and winds will begin
to diminish throughout the day to be around 10 knots out of the
north by late this afternoon. winds will veer around to be out
of the east to southeast by wednesday morning at 5-10 knots. low
pressure will move north of the lake on thursday and winds will
increase to 15-25 knots out of the south. with the offshore
winds, the highest waves at 3-5 feet, should stay over the open
waters and the need for a small craft advisory should be low. by
friday, the low pressure will move off to the east and winds
will shift to be out of the southwest at5- 15 knots. a cold
front will pass through later in the day shifting winds to be
northwesterly, but should stay on the lighter side at 5- 10
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
lez143>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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141
fxus63 kiwx 071003
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
603 am edt tue apr 7 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather is expected through wednesday evening.

- temperatures will drop below freezing again tonight ranging
from the lower 30s across west central indiana to the mid 20s
across south central lower michigan.

- rain chances increase again late wednesday night into friday,
and then again monday and tuesday of next week. thunderstorms
will also be possible, particularly early next week.

- temperatures will moderate for thursday and friday, with much
above normal temperatures again by next monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt tue apr 7 2026

low level cold, dry air advection continues this morning in wake of
a cold frontal passage. winds have remained a bit gusty overnight
with some occasional gusts to 20 mph at times, but low level flow
magnitudes will decrease through the morning as a broad 1035 mb
anticyclone begins to drop southeast into the western great
lakes. low level northerly winds will veer easterly today with
temperature advection becoming more neutral this afternoon. this
evolution will keep temperatures well below normal (10 to 15
degrees below normal) for the date despite the expectation of
plenty of insolation today under the influence of low/mid level
subsidence. a weak lake breeze is expected to form due to this
weakening gradient, but weak lake/land thermal contrast and
easterly gradient should keep this boundary closer to the lake
michigan shoreline.

high clouds will increase more substantially tonight as a mid level
ridge axis begins to approach from the west which will also mark a
period of stronger low/mid level warm advection. sub-freezing
temperatures are expected once again with lows likely right around
the freezing mark far southwest and into the mid 20s far northeast.
the official start of growing season has not begun locally as of
this writing, but steps should be taken to protect any tender
vegetation. the sharpest temperature drops tonight are expected
this evening, and temps should level during the overnight hours
with greater upper level cloud coverage and stronger warm
advection.

for wednesday, a broad low level thermal ridge will be shifting east
across the southern great lakes/ohio valley with the strongest warm
advection expected from the mid ms valley into the western great
lakes. temps should be closer to climatological norms for
wednesday and likely a bit above normal across the west in
closer proximity to stronger waa. it will also become
breezy/windy wednesday afternoon with peak afternoon wind gusts
of 25 to 35 mph (strongest across western in into sw lower mi).

by wednesday night attention turns to an upper level low currently
tracking across southwest canada this morning, as it makes its way
across mn/western ontario. given strength of this system forcing and
axis of better pre-frontal moisture, would expect some showers to
develop in advance of the front late wednesday into early thursday
with the greatest coverage across southern great lakes on southern
periphery of larger scale height falls. precip will likely diminish
later during the day thursday, but an upstream mid level wave diving
southeast across central conus late thursday into early friday
should induce stronger advective forcing over this stalled boundary
with additional chances of showers and perhaps a few storms. passage
of this mid level trough will take this baroclinic zone
southeast of the area on saturday. some low rain chances were
maintained far west-northwest on saturday, but bulk of the
weekend through sunday afternoon should be dry as favored short
wave track likely should shift west and northwest of the area.

much of the late weekend/early next week period is shaping up much
above normal temperature-wise as initial ingestion of cut-off
upper level low from sw conus induces stronger warm advection
late saturday into sunday. the northeast ejection of this
feature should also enhance rain showers monday
afternoon/evening (50-70%) with a potential of scattered storms
as low level moisture quality sharply improves. the more active
precip period early next week will likely continue into
tue/possibly wednesday as leftover stalled frontal boundary from
monday`s dampening system should be in place for another
southern stream upper level low lifting into central conus for
tue/wed. northward extent of thunder threat is a bit unclear at
this time and will depend on exact frontal placement. the
overall consensus in medium range deterministic/ensemble
solutions is for this boundary to be located across the upper
ohio valley or southern great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 600 am edt tue apr 7 2026

a broad anticyclone will drop into the southern great lakes
region today into this evening bringing diminishing winds and
mainly clear skies. a slackening gradient resulting from this
ridge of high pressure may allow a weak lake breeze to develop
this afternoon, but this should be limited to close proximity to
the lake michigan shoreline. otherwise, north winds this morning
around 10 knots will veer light easterly this afternoon, and
then southeast this evening as the high departs to the east.
some patchy high clouds today will give way to more solid mid
level cloud coverage tonight as warm advection begins to
strengthen. vfr conditions should persist through this forecast
valid period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
457
fxus63 kdtx 070901
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
501 am edt tue apr 7 2026

.key messages...

- coldest conditions of the week with exist today. a warming trend
will then commence wednesday and thursday.

- a slow moving cold front will bring the next chance of rain late
wednesday night and thursday. this frontal boundary will remain the
focus for additional rainfall development thursday night and friday.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure scours out lingering cloud cover through the morning,
leading to clear skies. some isolated gusts around 20 knots remain
likely through the morning, with light winds taking hold by the late
morning hours as high pressure settles overhead. north flow turns
variable in the afternoon, with wind direction then turning
southeasterly by the evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 219 am edt tue apr 7 2026

discussion...

higher magnitude cold held within deeper layer northwest flow along
the backside of broad mid level troughing now entrenched locally
early this morning. the ongoing cold air advective process
contributing to some lingering pockets of stratus and the occasional
flurry. a steady level of drying under improving column stability as
high pressure encroaches will effectively scour out this moist
layer going forward this morning, with the eastern thumb likely the
slowest as some degree of moisture flux off lake huron persists.
resident thermal profile will feature an 850 mb temperatures of -14
to -16c today, sufficient to maintain a surface temp at roughly 15
to 20 degrees below average. highs mainly in the 30s. any lingering
early day gustiness fades with time as the surface high increases
influence this afternoon. dry and stable conditions tonight with
plenty of open sky. lows broadly distributed in the 20s.

benign weather conditions wednesday. moderating thermal profile
within the background of building large scale upper heights will
offer a respectable uptick in daylight temperatures. highs arriving
near average for early april. eastern extension of a warm front
attendant to an organizing system across the northern plains will
sweep through late in the day. still little indication of anything
more than some increase in cloud with this feature, as more
meaningful moisture transport hangs well to the west. a more
concerted period of warm air advection then emerges wednesday night
into thursday. this will occur as greater height falls spread across
the northern great lakes south of the parent low ejecting across
ontario. this will effectively draw the cold front into lower
michigan, offering an initial window for shower production as higher
quality theta-e aligns with the southeast sagging boundary. highest
probability of precip centered 09z-18z early thursday, before
meaningful upward vertical motion at least temporarily fades along
the frontal slope. limited available instability given the
unfavorable timing with generally light qpf offered by the collective
ensemble - interquartile range from a few hundredths to less than
quarter of an inch. milder resident airmass thursday affords highs
back into the 60s.

favorable underlying environment will exist for a secondary and
potentially more meaningful period of rain to develop thursday night
and friday. mid level wave shearing along the southern flank of the
broader mid level trough will initiate another period of deeper
moisture transport /pw over 1 inch/ as 850 mb flow reaches upwards
of 50 knots. this sets the stage for an increasing coverage of
showers and possible embedded thunderstorms to emerge along the
stalled frontal zone projected to linger in vicinity of southeast
michigan. forecast continues to highlight a moderate probability for
rain, with some uncertainty yet in exact frontal positioning.
ensemble guidance currently offers .3" for mean qpf and roughly .5"
at the 75th percentile. trailing height falls will finally shunt the
frontal zone south by friday night, with drier conditions returning
for at least the first half of the weekend.

marine...

high pressure builds into the region today, leading to a drier day
across the great lakes. northwest flow holds through most of the
daylight hours which keeps waves elevated enough for small craft
advisories. winds then shift to the south-southeast tonight into
wednesday morning while the next low tracks toward ontario. broad
pressure gradient tightening occurs as the low approaches late this
week, with southerly flow increasing to 25-30 knots by wednesday
night. a strong 60-70 knot low level jet moves overhead wednesday
night as well, but stable conditions prevent much of that from
mixing to the surface. most areas will see gusts capped below 35
knots, with elevated wave heights being the main marine concern. the
low will also slowly draw a cold front across the region late this
week, resulting in several rounds of showers with potential for
thunderstorms at times. high pressure then returns to start the
weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...mr
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.