Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
110 am edt wed apr 8 2026

.what has changed...
temperatures have trended a little colder this
afternoon/evening, and friday has trended a little cooler and
wetter. otherwise, no changes to the forecast or messaging.

&&

.key messages...
1) unseasonably cold tonight with mid-winter like arctic air.

2) temperatures warm to near seasonable levels wednesday
through saturday, followed by well above normal temperatures
sunday through early next week. periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected between thursday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an amplified pattern continues this afternoon characterized by
deep mid/upper troughing over the great lakes and northeast
conus downstream of broad mid/upper ridging over the western
u.s. and plains. this is maintaining a northwesterly feed of
arctic air through the region, but strong surface high pressure
building in from the central great lakes has allowed skies to
clear out, so the strong april sun at least makes it feel
slightly better. lowered highs a couple of degrees this
afternoon based on current observations. lingering lake-effect
clouds in far ne ohio and nw pa will clear out by early evening
as the high builds overhead, and this will set up strong
radiational cooling tonight. expect lows to bottom out in the
low/mid 20s areawide, with teens in favored portions of interior
ne ohio and nw pa and perhaps along the u.s. 30 corridor.

key message 2...
quiet weather and welcomed warming will begin wednesday as the
mid/upper trough lifts out and allows for height rises across
the region as the surface high shifts into new england and also sets
up return flow. the warming trend will continue wednesday night
and thursday as a warm front lifts across the region ahead of a
mid/upper shortwave and associated surface low progressing into
the northern great lakes. the low-level moisture return in the
warm sector ahead of this system does not look too impressive,
partly due to the strongest upper support passing north of the
region leading to a weaker low-level jet response. however, some
pooling and low-level convergence ahead of the trailing cold
front will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms late
thursday and thursday night as the front gradually sags into the
region from nw to se, so pops have trended a little faster on
thursday. any convection thursday afternoon and thursday night
should be mostly low-impact.

the period to watch for somewhat more impactful weather will be
friday and friday night as the front becomes quasi-stationary
across the region in response to a mid/upper jet max forming a
surface wave on the front. details are still uncertain, but as
the wave tracks along the boundary during the day friday,
slightly higher wind fields and associated shear, along with
better low-level moisture advection, could generate a few
stronger thunderstorms as well as locally heavy rain. given how
saturated the soils are in many areas, this could cause
localized impacts, so trends will be monitored.

the front will be pushed into the ohio valley saturday as
canadian high pressure at the surface builds across the great
lakes, setting up dry and cooler conditions. this front will
quickly return north as a warm front sunday as a broad area of
deep southerly flow develops through early next week along with
corresponding mid/upper ridging building into the eastern conus.
this is in response to a strong mid/upper trough and closed low
slowly progressing from the pacific northwest sunday into the
plains by tuesday. in this pattern, confidence is highest that
temperatures will warm to well above normal levels sunday
through tuesday. shower and thunderstorm chances are less
certain. a series of shortwaves will eject out of the main
upstream upper trough/low and traverse an active baroclinic
zone/quasi-stationary front across the great lakes. this will
bring periodic clusters of convection, but the placement of the
boundary may keep the bulk of it north of our area until the
front starts to sag into the region tuesday. at this point,
expect periodic showers and thunderstorms (mostly scattered)
between sunday and monday, with a more organized round possible
tuesday. the timeframe around tuesday will be the next period to
watch for potential severe weather and heavy rainfall.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
widespread vfr conditions continue across the region and will
persist through the taf period. there are a few high clouds
moving west to east though will stay sct or few. winds are
currently less around 5 knots out of the east and will veer to
be out of the southeast this morning and increase to around 10
knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain showers thursday night and
friday.

&&

.marine...
conditions on lake erie will continue to calm down as high
pressure builds into the region this afternoon and evening.
winds this afternoon will be from the north or northeast 5 to
12 knots. waves are still gradually decreasing and will be
around 2 to 4 feet this afternoon as the lake continues to
settle down. winds will shift around from the east tonight and
southeast on wednesday increasing to 8 to 15 knots. the next
cold front will approach lake erie late thursday. southerly
winds will increase wednesday night 15 to 20 knots. winds will
become southwesterly on thursday between 15 and 20 knots. even
though the wind will be mainly an offshore flow late wednesday
night into thursday, we may need additional small craft
advisories if the trends for wind speeds increase closer to 25
knots. that cold front may weaken as it moves across lake erie
thursday night with decreasing and variable winds overnight.
winds will remain southwesterly on friday 10 to 15 knots before
another front moves across lake erie with a shift from the north
5 to 10 knots by friday night. high pressure will be near the
lake this weekend with a light northeasterly to easterly flow
expected on saturday. a return flow of southerly winds will be
back by sunday, increasing late in the day 8 to 15 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...23
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
644 pm edt tue apr 7 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures will average well above normal many of the next
7 days, with some locations possibly reaching 80 degrees early
next week.

- rain chances return wednesday night, possibly lingering into
friday. additional chances of rain exist early next week.

- overall rainfall amounts into this weekend are not expected
to cause additional hydrologic issues. as a result, water
levels on many rivers, streams and lakes should slowly fall
over the next several days.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 pm edt tue apr 7 2026

if you are looking for the warmer weather to return, hang in there
as the last of the cold air departs tonight as high pressure drifts
across the region and a southerly flow starts wednesday. before we
get there, we are looking at one more cold night with near/below
freezing temperatures expected. lows will likely occur during
the overnight hours, then become steady or slowly climb as mid
level clouds start to move in to limit radiational cooling.

an upper level low currently exiting se british columbia on course
to move into north dakota before eventually heading to north of lake
superior thursday. initially, the low will be responsible for a
dramatic warm up (15 to 25 degree increase) in highs compared
to today. a frontal boundary will make a run at the area wed
night into thu, with increasing moisture, but losing overall
dynamics as the upper support departs. slgt chc to chc pops are
maintained, highest in the nw. the boundary will stall out,
awaiting another wave that arrives thursday night into friday.
while pops and qpf are a bit higher with this feature, the
overall strength of the trough and glancing impact will limit
impacts. qpf will be highest in nw areas where a half to locally
three-quarters of an inch of rain may fall. a few storms will
be possible as well, but are expected to be more "general" in
nature.

the front will temporarily lower high temps friday across the area,
mainly in the nw where highs will only be in the 50s. a much
stronger surge of waa will commence starting saturday as sw winds
ramp up in response increasing upper level heights as a deep trough
digs into the western us. low level moisture will also increase with
a series of waves set to eject from the trough to bring better
chances for showers and thunderstorms. right now the axis of
heaviest precip looks to reside just nw of the area, but will need
to be monitored closely as any heavier qpf will have impacts to
already high water levels.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 627 pm edt tue apr 7 2026

dry weather and vfr cigs will prevail through the taf forecast
period with an increase in mid and high level clouds this
evening into the overnight hours. easterly winds decreasing and
veering to southeast to south overnight and will diurnally
increase around 18z wed with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am wednesday to 8 am edt thursday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1146 pm edt tue apr 7 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend begins as highs return to the 50s wednesday and
60s thursday, except cooler near lake huron.

- a slow moving cold front brings the next chance of rain late
wednesday night and thursday, and remains the focus for additional
rainfall thursday night and friday.

- cooler but still near normal temperatures occur behind the front
friday and saturday.

&&

.aviation...

center of midlevel anticyclone and deep isentropic downglide will
push from lake michigan eastward to the western lake ontario basin
by 12z wednesday. a dry air mass and a favorable radiative cooling
environment will support light and variable winds overnight. return
southerly flow aloft will push into lower michigan after 12z
wednesday. wing of isentropic ascent is expected to result in cloud
above 8.0-10.0 kft agl. south southeast winds wednesday of 10 to 25
knots.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm edt tue apr 7 2026

discussion...

high pressure covers the entire great lakes this afternoon with an
impressively cold and dry air mass limiting high temperatures to the
30s, despite full early april sun. these readings are well below
normals in the lower to mid 50s and set the stage for another cold
night across the region. the afternoon decreasing cloud trend leaves
clear sky in place with light north wind shifting eastward this
evening for a favorable radiational cooling setup. temperatures drop
into the 20s not long after sunset, but then become steady mainly
due to wind increasing from the se after midnight. there is also
some high cloud increase and possibly a few pockets of stratocu from
lake erie late tonight and wednesday morning.

high pressure reaches the atlantic coast as the next low pressure
system moves into the upper midwest by wednesday afternoon. lower mi
is between these systems and within a textbook warm advection
pattern. associated isentropic ascent is pronounced on the leading
edge of the theta-e ridge but not quite able to overcome low level
dry air still feeding in on streamlines off the atlantic coast high
pressure. we end up with high clouds thickening and lowering during
the morning along with a virga footprint on radar until shifting
northward toward mid afternoon. se mi is not fully in the warm
sector of the low pressure system with a lingering se component on
the surface wind, however guidance temperatures in the lower to mid
50s are reachable for afternoon highs. the slight onshore wind
direction holds readings well down in the 40s toward lake huron.

conditions remain dry and mild wednesday night until late night
arrival of the moisture axis along/ahead of the inbound cold front.
today`s 12z models indicate good agreement on solutions that show
the upper midwest low occluding into northern ontario while drawing
a band of showers into central lower mi by thursday morning. the
moisture axis is mature but the boundary leans frontolytic under the
southern fringe of the upper level system. timing is also not great
during the morning diurnal instability minimum which limits
maintenance of much more than clusters of showers as the band
progresses across se mi. blended pop guidance offers a reasonable
reflection of these trends from borderline widespread coverage over
the saginaw valley late wednesday night down to higher end scattered
coverage with low qpf across the rest of se mi as the front moves
through thursday. shower potential then peaks thursday night as the
front stalls in the ohio valley and reactivates aloft over lower mi.
timing and intensity of the upper wave again look good among the 12z
model runs as the wave moves in from the central plains. nocturnal
timing in this case is favorable for low level jet intensification
downstream and along the 850-700 mb frontal zone supporting a flare-
up of showers and scattered thunderstorms late thursday night and
friday morning. consensus of model qpf among the deterministic runs
shows a larger footprint of 0.5 inch totals over about a 12 hour
event with localized totals up to 1 inch before ending early friday
afternoon.

the surface front stalls across in/oh thursday night and never
really makes a northward move during the thursday night/friday rain
event. it is then driven well south into the ohio valley as
precipitation exits lower mi friday. the upper level wave exits
eastward leaving subsidence and high pressure to build over the
great lakes and drive the front southward. model guidance indicates
this inbound high pressure air mass brings dry weather and only
drops temperatures down into the 50s (compared to 30s today) for
friday and saturday.

marine...

high pressure centers over the great lakes today, leading to drier
and less windy conditions. northwest flow weakens this evening and
flips southerly overnight as the center of the ridge translates into
the eastern great lakes, while low pressure over the central
us/canada border tracks toward ontario. pressure gradient
constriction occurs as the low approaches, with southerly flow
increasing to 25 knots late wednesday evening. a 60 knot low level
jet moves overhead wednesday night, but low-level stability should
prevent comparable gusts from mixing to the surface. most areas
should see gusts capped below 35 knots, with elevated wave heights
being the main marine concern. a few gusts to gales cannot be ruled
out, but should be infrequent enough to preclude an gale headlines.
the low will also slowly draw a cold front across the region late
this week, resulting in several rounds of showers with potential for
a few rounds of thunderstorms. high pressure then returns to start
the weekend with weaker winds and lower wave heights.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.