Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
663
fxus61 kcle 251802
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
202 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front on
wednesday, and again on thursday afternoon. a few strong to severe
storms are possible, mainly across northwest ohio wednesday
afternoon and evening.

2) temperatures will trend warmer by the end of the weekend into
early next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a mid-level shortwave (25-30 knots of wsw 700 mb flow) will traverse
the base of an upper-level trough wednesday into thursday across
the great lakes as a cold front sweeps east through the area on
thursday. showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
front wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily impacting
portions of northwest ohio along the i-75 corridor, and again
thursday afternoon, generally east of the i-77 corridor. the
greatest threat for organized thunderstorms on wednesday will
be west of the area across portions of north-central indiana,
though depending on the eastward extent of the instability
gradient, a few of our counties along the i-75 corridor across
northwest ohio could see some strong to severe storms as well,
generally between 6 and 10 pm. damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
appear to be the primary concern, though large hail up to 1 inch
and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

showers and thunderstorms should largely diminish overnight as the
shortwave swings east through the ohio valley, though redevelopment
is possible again thursday afternoon with the aid of diurnal
heating, mainly east of the i-77 corridor. the latest guidance
suggests a decreasing risk for strong to severe storms thursday
afternoon as the greatest coverage of storms continues to trend
further east of the area into pennsylvania and southeast ohio.


key message 2..
after a brief stint of drier and seasonable weather, a large
upper-level ridge will enter the region towards the end of the
weekend into early next week with increasing temperatures and
humidity. highs will reach above average in the mid to upper 80s
on sunday, potentially touching 90 in some spots by monday. in
addition, we`ll also have to continue to monitor the potential
for showers and thunderstorms, especially monday night through
tuesday as an upper-level trough swings east through the upper
great lakes.


&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
scattered to broken cumulus cloud deck in place across northeast
ohio will trend towards scattered for this afternoon. high
pressure will be overhead tonight and can not rule out mvfr
visibilities at cak and yng late tonight in the 09-13z window.
added a couple hour tempo towards sunrise and will need to
monitor for brief ifr conditions. otherwise, the weather will
remain quiet through the taf period before a front and the
potential for thunderstorms arrive later in the day on
wednesday. north to northwest winds at ne ohio and nw
pennsylvania terminals will transition to a light land breeze
with southerly winds after 00z tonight. south to southwest winds
of 5-10 knots will develop at all terminals on wednesday ahead
of an approaching front.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure overhead will result in lake breezes on lake erie
today, especially east of the lake erie islands. land breezes
will return tonight with south to southwest winds on wednesday
ahead of a cold front. winds increase to 10-20 knots ahead of
the front on wednesday night with waves of 2 to 4 feet in the
open waters. scattered thunderstorms may also accompany the
front from wednesday evening through thursday morning and may
result in erratic wind/wave conditions. winds shift to the north
behind the front on thursday night at 10-15 knots but are
expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria as winds
decrease quickly into friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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528
fxus63 kiwx 251755
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
155 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and much lower
humidity continue today.

- there is a slight risk for severe weather with all hazards possible
on wednesday. scattered severe storms are most likely between
4 to 11 pm edt.

- dry and slightly warmer thursday through the weekend ahead.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

with high pressure situated overhead again today, another tranquil
day is expected with mild and dry conditions. near normal
temperatures are expected today with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s as the airmass overhead moderates and light southwest winds
persist. comfortable humidity with dew points in the mid to upper
50s continues today too.

becoming increasingly warmer and humid wednesday with 40-70% chances
for rain and storms, especially by the afternoon and evening.
scattered severe weather will be possible as spc maintains a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) for our entire forecast area. an upper level low
will deepen over the hudson bay and an attendant surface cold front
is expected to move through during the afternoon and evening.
scattered yet short-lived light showers may occur in the morning
around daybreak with a leading weak shortwave, but they quickly
diminish. at least partial clearing should commence by the morning
into the early afternoon, allowing for the airmass overhead to
destabilize with increased waa and low level moisture transport from
veering southerly winds. isolated discrete storms could develop as
early as 1-2 pm edt in our far northwest near lake michigan
(especially if there is a lake breeze to enhance lift), but still
thinking the best chances for strong to severe storms hold off until
3-4 pm edt and later as the front moves east-southeast. given the
favorable diurnal timing, highs in the low 80s, and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to near 70, severe weather is possible as up to 2500 j/kg
of surface based instability and decent 0-6 km shear of ~30 kts
should develop wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of the front.
there is still some uncertainty to work out as to what exactly the
storm mode will be; it is possible that discrete supercells develop
initially before growing upscale into multicell/linear segments. all
hazards will be possible including damaging wind gusts to 60 mph,
quarter size hail, and a few tornadoes. it is worth noting that spc
has a 5% tornado probability for northern indiana and far southern
lower michigan when spin is maximized closest to the surface cold
front. low level profiles on forecast soundings do appear favorable
for tornadoes with 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 srh and lcls of 750m,
especially if discrete supercells end up being the primary storm
mode. the only ingredient that is lacking is the low and mid level
lapse rates. if lapse rates of only 6 to 6.5 c/km occur tomorrow,
this may be a possible failure mode and/or limiting factor for
convection.

another area of high pressure builds across the midwest and great
lakes late in the week, bringing a return to dry conditions thursday
through sunday. have kept low chances (20-30%) for rain and storms
for monday. temperatures will remain near normal with a gradual
warming trend into the mid 80s for highs by the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 139 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

vfr conditions prevail through this taf periods. a cold front
will approach the area on wednesday and ahead of the front
clouds and winds will be on the increase. southwesterly winds
will be on the increase wednesday morning to around 10 kts and
increase further after this taf issuance period. showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible beyond this forecast on
wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 251740
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
140 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend through the middle of the week with increased
humidity.

- next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive late wednesday.
an isolated strong storm possible wednesday evening.

- lingering chances for isolated showers/storms thursday afternoon.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure governs conditions today resulting in light and
variable winds alongside dry conditions. diurnal cu field has
emerged, but looks to stay mostly sct through the evening. winds
organize out of the south this evening and strengthen above 10 knots
by wednesday morning. a cold front approaches the airspace
wednesday, although thunderstorm chances look to hold off across
lower michigan until after 18z wednesday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast today through
wednesday morning. thunderstorm chances then increase wednesday
afternoon and early evening as a cold front tracks across lower
michigan. strong to severe storms are possible.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunderstorms wednesday afternoon-evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 331 am edt tue aug 25 2026

discussion...

progressive shortwave ridging aloft will push across the great lakes
today supporting surface high pressure. differential geopotential
height rises and increased thickness will support a notable uptick
in daytime temperatures. highs today are expected to be near 80
degrees which is right at lake august seasonal averages.

next pacific upper level jet packet and reasonably well organized
upper level low pressure circulation will dig into lower michigan
wednesday and wednesday night. residual stability and subsaturated
airmass between 3.5 and 9.0 kft agl will lead to quiet weather
conditions for early and midday wednesday. will likely be looking at
two thetae warm front structures the first bringing iso-sct showers
and virga 16-20z, the second associated with cyclonic flow and
greater convergence along a prefrontal trough at 23z wed to 05z thu.
wind progs suggest 850mb winds/llj increasing +30 knots immediately
in advance of the prefrontal trough contributing to 0-6km bulk shear
magnitudes of 30-35 knots. forecast soundings continue to show
statically stable conditions throughout the lowest 4.5 kft agl which
casts doubt on whether or not thunderstorm activity will be
elevated. regardless, marginal instability at around or less than
1000 j/kg limits much in the way of widespread severe weather.
latest swody2 has the majority of southeast michigan in a marginal
risk for severe weather primarily for the late afternoon and early
evening hours. a portion of western lenawee county is designated in
a slight risk for severe weather as there is some potential for
supercells to the southwest of the area.

models suggest a good amount of wave dampening which results in
nothing more than a spoke of absolute vorticity thursday. deep
cyclonic flow with steeper lapse rates aloft brings an isolated
chance of showers thursday afternoon. good confidence in additional
humidity on thursday with dewpoints then dropping behind a cold
front friday.

confidence appears to be increasing that any pacific shortwave
energy will wait until very late in the weekend. gfs has come more
in line with the ecmwf in keeping surface high pressure in place
saturday.

lower confidence exists regarding the forecast next weekend. there
is some global deterministic differences on when the next pacific
jet packet will push into the great lakes region. another very nice
late summer weekend looks likely.

marine...

high pressure will settle over the great lakes today and will
support light winds and dry weather. southwest flow will become
better established by tomorrow ahead of an upper-level disturbance
and cold front, which will increase wind speeds across lake huron
given the more favorable fetch. wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots
will be increasingly likely with the southwest flow as rain showers
and some thunderstorm begin to build in. shower and thunderstorm
chances will persist into thursday morning with the passage of the
front. post frontal northwest flow will take hold through the day on
thursday with low-end chances for rain showers. high pressure
then builds back in friday to end the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.