Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 101911
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
311 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track currently. there is still uncertainty
on the location of the showers and thunderstorms overnight
tonight and tomorrow. severe weather and heavy rain still remain
a threat through tomorrow evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through wednesday
night. there will potential for heavy rainfall with each round of
precipitation which could lead to localized flash flooding. severe
weather is also possible with each round with the main threat being
damaging winds.

2) brief dry period on thursday through early saturday as high
pressure builds into the region.

3)unsettled weather returns late saturday through the remainder of
the weekend as low pressure moves through the great lakes
region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
over the next few days, a series of shortwaves are expected to move
through the region bringing the chance for heavy rain and severe
weather. the shortwave that brought the severe weather to northern
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania has moved off to the east and
there will be a brief period of dry weather until after midnight
tonight. there is low probability of showers and thunderstorms
developing across the southern tier of counties in the cwa, but
confidence is low due to the thunderstorms this morning across
central ohio working over the atmosphere. another shortwave will
enter the region late tonight and move through by tomorrow morning.
current expectation is that the showers and thunderstorms will be in
the western and southern portion of the cwa. there will be potential
for heavy rain to bring localized flash flooding to the areas that
get precipitation, but the limiting factor is that that area has not
received much precipitation over the past couple of days. will need
to monitor the development of the precipitation and adjust as
needed. additionally, there will be a threat of damaging winds with
these storms as they moved through. instability will be lacking
given the storms will be moving through overnight, but there will be
around 40 knots of bulk shear across the region that could support
strong to severe winds. as the shortwave moves out of the area to
the east, precipitation should end by mid morning and dry weather
is expected through midday.

another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening as another stronger shortwave
moves into the region from the northwest. current model guidance
suggests an mcs will be moving through northern illinois through
indiana and into central ohio. there will be ample instability
ahead of this feature along with decent lapse rates and bulk shear
that suggests that it will continue into ohio. the main question
with this would be where it will set up and if it reaches further
north than a line from bowling green down through canton, oh.
regardless, strong to damaging wind gusts will be plausible along
this feature from the afternoon into the early evening as it exits
to the southeast. heavy rain and flooding could be a threat as well
given the previous days precipitation, though confidence is low in
flooding occurring given the reasons stated for the previous night.
severe weather threat should end by late tuesday evening and
primarily dry weather is expected overnight.

wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, another shortwave
and surface low will move through the region with another round of
showers and thunderstorms. there`s still some uncertainty on how
this system will play out, but with the current run of models, it
does not appear to be as impactful as far as severe weather goes.
generally, instability will be lower across the region, but with
decent shear could support some stronger wind gusts. precipitation
will end late wednesday night as the surface low moves off to the
southeast and high pressure builds in.

key message 2...
high pressure will begin to build into the region from the northwest
thursday afternoon. there is a low probability for showers across
the southern portion of the cwa into central ohio on thursday
evening and how far north these get will be dependent on how far
south the high has built in at that time. generally, the majority of
the area will be dry with everyone being dry through saturday as the
high builds overhead and moves eastward.

key message 3...
unsettled weather returns to the region late saturday evening
through the remainder of the weekend. the upper level ridge will
breakdown and northwesterly zonal flow is likely across the region
and a few shortwaves are expected to move through the weekend. given
the event is several days away details are still uncertain on if
there will be a severe or flooding threat.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
in period of multiple convective complexes that will be coming
through the southern great lakes over the next few days, and the
main challenges coming from timing of these as they approach
each terminal. next one after the activity this morning should
be after 02z tonight, but still run into issues with evolution
of the storms and how they will propagate across the region. for
now, using 2-3hr tempo groups as once the storms onset, there
may be more than one cell rolling through. ceilings to low end
mvfr/ifr towards morning, and restrictions in place through most
of the second half of the taf.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected in multiple
rounds of convective activity through thursday. low ceilings
possible at times as well.

&&

.marine...
sw winds will increase to 15-20 knots later this morning through
the afternoon behind a warm front. this will build wave heights
to over 4 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern
basins. at this point, expect the biggest waves and strongest
winds to be in the open waters, so did not issue a small craft
advisory, but it will be very close. boaters should nonetheless
expect choppy conditions.

winds will become light and variable tonight, and expect that to
largely be the case through wednesday as a frontal boundary
oscillates just south of the lake. stronger winds averaging a n
direction will then begin late wednesday and continue through
friday as the front finally pushes south and canadian high
pressure attempts to build across the great lakes.

otherwise, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will impact the lake
today through wednesday. any organized storms that cross the
lake could produce locally strong winds over 50 knots and high
waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...26
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 101629
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1229 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

.key messages...

- several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
into tuesday. damaging winds and large hail are the main
concerns, but an isolated tornado or 2 is possible.

- flooding concerns may increase depending on rainfall amounts
across the area with each round of storms.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 111 am edt mon aug 10 2026

focus of discussion and any forecast updates will be on next 24 to
36 hours with regards to severe and hydrologic concerns. getting
discussion out early to to potential storms over next couple of
hours.

we are monitoring a cluster of thunderstorms from se wi into
northern il. while some occasional severe reports came from earlier
storms, the main storm of interest (hp supercell) is rooted on the
outflow boundary from the earlier storms with some hints at this
moving more se with time. other storms continue to try to develop
and expand, including far nw parts of the area. this leaves a lot of
uncertainty as to what occurs overnight. plenty of instability
remains across the area, but near sfc inhibition may limit wind
potential overnight. suffice to say, risk of severe remains in play
across the area. for the latest updates on the mesoscale features,
monitor spc products. in addition, a flash flood watch was issued
earlier to cover several counties to cover the recent rainfall and
potential for some areas seeing more heavy rain overnight. this is
currently in effect until 11 am edt, but given the concerns of the
convective evolution overnight no changes are planned at this time.

in the wake of the overnight/early am storms, the atmosphere will
recharge once again with plenty of cape and sufficient shear to bring
yet another severe threat monday afternoon and evening. much like
today, the main threat will be damaging wind along with some large
hail. if any outflow boundaries linger in the area, these could help
with a localized tornado threat. also in play will be the continued
threat of heavy rainfall as pwats remain about 1.75" and warm cloud
depths of 14 k to 15kft. may need to expand the flood watch in area
and time depending on what evolves overnight. sadly, trends in the
models do show yet more storms developing later monday evening into
tuesday morning (possibly the 4th round of storms since sunday
evening). not even going to try to do anything in the forecast with
this given the plethora of challenges from previous rounds of storms
that cannot be fully resolved this far out.

deepening on the location of the stationary boundary tuesday, one
more round of convection could occur focused south of us-30. again,
no changes to forecast with regards to this, just something to keep
in mind with the flood threat possibly still there.

beyond tuesday night, models seem to push the effective boundary
south of the area to give us a reprieve from the rain and storms.
however, the overall upper level flow doesn`t change much so low
confidence at this point and model blend will be left alone.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1228 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

mvfr stratocu in the vicinity of a frontal boundary should mix
into low vfr with some additional heating this afternoon. main
focus otherwise is on the convective potential late this
afternoon into tonight. latest observational and model data
suggest the late afternoon and evening for the best opportunity
for scattered convection as a weak impulse approaches from the
west amid ample mucape. brief ifr/lifr conditions and gusty
winds possible if storms impact the terminals.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
257 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

.key messages...

- a chance of thunderstorms will exist this evening into tuesday and
again on wednesday, with greater potential near the ohio border.
isolated storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

- dry weather is expected to end the workweek.

- renewed chance of storms and heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

subsidence behind the shortwave this morning dried out the mid
levels and the cap has held strong thus far. acars data out of dtw
shows waning cin however, now around 25 j/kg. although the
low level wind fields are weak, any localized convergence boundaries
(lake breeze) could serve as a focal point to support isolated
thunderstorms. banking on dry mid levels and lag of well defined
trigger to keep coverage limited, as hi res solutions are also
muted. of course, an outflow boundary(s) could trigger
renewed activity. in any event, it appears there is a better chance
tonight toward the southern michigan border.

fast northwest upper level flow over the great lakes region through
thursday, with embedded impulses/upper level pv filaments tracking
out of the northern plains potentially triggering convection. the
main moisture/instability axis is located over the northern ohio,
which favors the bulk of the storms in that area. however, if upper
level waves are sufficiently strong, the southwest low level
jet will be able to displace activity farther north into southern
lower michigan. there are a few models suggesting the i-94 corridor
to the southern michigan border will see some shower/thunderstorm
activity tonight as k indices peak out around 40 c as 850
mb winds increase aoa 30 knots, but remain mostly westerly. the
subtle direction shift from due west and exact location of the jet
core will make all the difference on location of activity.
otherwise, with at least moderate instability/capes (mlcapes
2000 j/kg) to tap into along with decent mid level lapse rates,
a marginal risk of severe seems reasonable.

an even stronger upper level wave is progged to come out of the
midwest on tuesday, supporting higher pops and farther northward
placement by tuesday afternoon. still, if the system goes upscale
faster around chicago, another dive to the southeast remains
a good possibility, focusing the chances for severe storms and heavy
rain south of border. thus, the ohio valley has been put into
enhanced risk in the day 2 spc outlook.

gradually building 500 mb heights to close our the workweek as
an upper level ridge axis arrives friday night (aoa 588 dam per
euro ensembles). there ridge is still not strong enough to cap
activity, as another strong shortwave and surface reflection
are progged to move into the western great lakes by saturday. a risk
of strong storms and heavy rainfall exists over the weekend. timing,
duration, and axis of heavy rainfall remain, however, as ukmet,
canadian, and euro models depict significant differences.

&&

.marine...

a stalled front near the southern michigan border will continue to
be a focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the next couple
days. this will mostly affect lake erie and lake st clair but there
is a chance later this afternoon that storms could affect areas
farther north into southern lake huron as well. outside of any
convection, high pressure to the north of the front will provide
generally light and variable winds through mid week at 10 knots or
less. later in the week, a weakly organized area of low pressure
becomes develops across the northeast, followed by high pressure of
30.1 inches gradually dropping southeast across the central and
eastern great lakes. this will favor an uptick in northwest winds
thursday and friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1252 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

aviation...

brief mvfr stratocu with limited coverage transitions to increasing
cumulus during the afternoon on the heels of weakening subsidence
that trailed the morning storm complex. low end vfr ceiling is most
likely toward the weak front stalled near the ohio border which also
provides a diffuse focus for a stray thunderstorm late in the day or
this evening. there is also a chance of storms again late tonight
and early in the morning, mainly near and south of dtw, as the
stalled front remains the focus and/or runway for activity that
develops upstream toward the mid ms valley. trends even farther west
and later tonight also have a chance to carry eastward into southern
lower mi tuesday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... time windows for a chance of thunderstorms are
focused mainly late this afternoon, late tonight, and again tuesday
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening, overnight, and tuesday
afternoon.

* moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......drk
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.