Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
769
fxus61 kcle 251141
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
641 am est tue nov 25 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure departs off the mid-atlantic coast this morning as a
low pressure system moves into the great lakes region. a strong cold
front will move east tuesday night into wednesday before a surface
trough lingers through friday. a brief high pressure will build over
the area saturday before the next low pressure impacts the area
sunday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
this morning, rain showers will spread northeast across the area as
a low pressure system associated with a shortwave trough moves into
the region. some showers may be locally heavy at times especially
across the southeastern counties where the greatest support will be
focused. storm total rainfall is expected to be between 0.25-0.5
inches through this evening which should be handled efficiently by
area basins and keep any flooding threat very minimal. high
temperatures today will climb into the low to mid 50s.

as this initial low pressure moves to the east this evening into the
overnight hours, a deepening low pressure system over the western
great lakes will begin to impact the area tuesday night. this system
will become nearly cut-off and move a very strong cold front east on
wednesday. this system will bring multiple hazards across the area
along with the return of winter. here is a breakdown of the
time line/hazards associated with this low:

synoptic rain/snow:

widespread precipitation associated with the front will remain as
rain ahead of the cold front early wednesday before transitioning to
a rain/snow mix and eventually to all snow late afternoon into the
early evening. exact snowfall accumulations through this period
remain a bit tricky to determine given the warmer antecedent
conditions, however with temperatures rapidly falling through the
day wednesday, some area roadways may still become icy.

gusty winds:

as the aforementioned low moves closer to the area, an enhanced
gradient will result in strong winds across the area. models suggest
llj values of 45-55 knots which may mix down to the surface with
sustained winds of 20-35 mph, gusting up to 45 mph. strongest winds
are expected to be west of i-71 and along the immediate lakeshore.
these gusty winds may cause hazardous travel conditions for high
profile vehicles and may result in localized power outages. will
continue to monitor forecast trends in the next couple updates as
wind gusts will near wind advisory criteria.

temperatures:

high temperatures on wednesday will be reached early in the morning
with widespread mid to upper 40s forecast. these temperatures are
expected to rapidly fall throughout the day, dropping into the low
to mid 30s by wednesday evening. gusty winds will make temperatures
feel colder than that.

overall, hazardous weather is expected for much of this period.
please stay up to date with the latest forecast as these details
become ironed out in future updates.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
during the short term period, the aforementioned low pressure system
will continue to impact the area as it slowly drift east towards
quebec. this system will continue to pose multiple hazards through
the period which will likely have significant impacts to the busy
holiday travel expected. given the complexity and multi-hazard
nature, here is the breakdown.

synoptic and lake effect snow:

wednesday night, synoptically driven snow showers will gradually
transition to predominately lake effect snow. the area will remain
under the leading edge of the trough through wednesday night,
allowing for a maintained southwesterly flow. this will allow for a
singular lake effect band to develop over lake erie. not expecting
much from this band wednesday night, but it may clip far northern
erie county in pennsylvania. by early thursday morning, the trough
axis will begin to push east of the area, marking the transition to
a more wnw flow. as a result, lake effect snow is expected to push
inland off of lake erie and impact the snowbelt. snow showers are
expect to intensify throughout the day on thursday with moderate to
heavy snow possible at times. the exact placement of the heaviest
bands remains uncertain which may locally alter the exact snowfall
totals. in general, snowfall accumulations across the ohio snowbelt
are expected to exceed 8 inches of snow. in the pennsylvania
snowbelt, snowfall totals are expected to exceed 8 inches as well,
but could exceed over 1 foot of snow where the heaviest bands
persist.

gusty winds:

gusty winds of 20-30 mph will remain possible through thursday,
especially along the lakeshore where winds may still occasionally
gust up to 45 mph. in addition to the typical wind impacts, blowing
snow may occur which has the potential to quickly reduce/change
visibilities.

temperatures:

temperatures through the period will be much cooler with highs on
thursday and friday only climbing into the low to mid 30s. overnight
lows will gradually decrease from lows in the low to mid 20s on
wednesday night to lows in the upper teens to low 20s by friday
night. with gusty winds still expected, this will result in wind
chill values in the 20s during the days and in the low to mid teens
overnight.

in summary, this will be an impactful lake effect snow event with
impacts being potentially enhanced given the holiday. please stay
tuned to the latest forecast and head all local warnings. avoid
travel if possible, but if venturing out make sure to have a winter
weather kit in the car along and give yourself plenty of time.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
the active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend,
although not with a plethora of lake effect snow. on saturday, a
very brief ridge will push east over the area allowing for a brief
period of dry conditions and marking the end of lake effect snow.
another upper level trough is currently expected to move a colorado
low northeast towards the area for sunday and monday, resulting in
another period of snow and rain. initial weather types saturday
night should remain as all snow before transitioning to all rain on
sunday as the area will remain on the warm side of the low. there
still remains quite a bit of divergence amongst models for the
timing and placement of this low, but confidence is growing that
there will be a system that impacts the area in the long term
period. highs through the period will linger in the 30s with
overnight lows persisting in the 20s.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
aviation conditions will be rapidly deteriorating this morning
as widespread rain and non-vfr ceilings will spread across the
terminals. conditions will fall quickly to mvfr then ifr over
the next several hours. the heaviest rain will be during the
late morning and early afternoon hours and this will allow for
the lowest visibility of the period. as the widespread rain
exits later this afternoon, lower ceilings will likely take hold
with a mix of ifr and lifr. however, do not believe that
conditions will be completely dry with some residual drizzle
likely remaining through tonight. winds will be generally
southerly to 10 kts. for the downslope component at keri, there
will be some gusts to 20 kts before the rain. the wind will also
be a reason for the slower rain entry for keri.

for the longer kcle taf, a cold front will pass through between
12z and 18z and bring another batch of rain. however, more
importantly, the front will usher in some strong southwest
winds and have gusts to 35 kts by the end of the taf period.
rain will also change to snow at some point wednesday afternoon,
as well.

outlook...mvfr ceilings and some showers persist on wednesday
with scattered snow showers on thursday. lake effect snows
continue across the snowbelt region through friday, and could be
heavy at times. wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots will be possible
wednesday, with wind gusts up to 40 knots near the lake erie
shoreline through thursday night.

&&

.marine...
the lake will be in the warm sector of a strong low pressure
system today, consolidating over minnesota and wisconsin.
offshore flow will be favored today with rounds of rain across
the region. for tonight into wednesday, the low pressure system
will extend a strong cold front across the lake. behind the
front, strong southwest winds will quickly overtake the lake and
accelerate to gale force. the wind forecast for the lake
continues to tick higher and winds to 40 knots seem reasonable
for now with some potential for marginal storm force gusts. as
the parent low pressure system meanders north of the lake, winds
will veer slightly to the west for thursday and eventually to
the west-northwest for thursday night into friday. with the
strong push of southwest to west winds on wednesday and
thursday, water levels for the western basin are expected to
recede and should remain below the critical mark for safe
navigation for a 36 to 48 hour period. with all of that, have
gone ahead and upgraded to the gale warning for the entire lake
and have a low water advisory for the western basin from 12z
wednesday to late thursday night or friday morning. elevated
northwest flow will remain on friday as the main system departs
and suspect that the gale warning for the eastern half of the
lake will need to be replaced with a small craft advisory. high
pressure will build in from the west for saturday and lighter
offshore flow will return, allowing for a day without marine
headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from thursday morning through friday
evening for ohz012>014-089.
pa...winter storm watch from late wednesday night through friday
evening for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est friday for
lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est friday for
lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning from 10 am wednesday to 10 am est friday for
lez145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...04
near term...04
short term...04
long term...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
865
fxus63 kiwx 251044
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
544 am est tue nov 25 2025

.key messages...

- seasonably mild today with highs in the 50s.

- periods of light rain through wednesday.

- turning much colder late wednesday with rain changing to
snow.

- light snow accumulations mainly near and north of the toll
road.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 401 am est tue nov 25 2025

a pair of upper level systems and a cold front will bring very
active weather across the forecast area through friday. a fairly
strong short wave was moving across the mid mississippi valley.
a large area of mainly light rain was associated with this
system. the rain will spread across northern indiana today.
temperatures will stay much above freezing so snow is not
expected. however, a second system will reach the area wednesday
and bring another round of precipitation. the rain will change
to snow early in the day as much colder air spreads over the
region. light snow accumulations are likely especially north of
the toll road.

a cold weekend is ahead with highs only in the 30s with highs
thanksgiving day through saturday only in the lower 30s. some
light snow is possible as a weak short wave reaches the area.
there are more chances for accumulating snow early next week,
but for this package have not made any changes in this regard
early next week due to uncertainty.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 538 am est tue nov 25 2025

disturbance will continue to move through the area today and will
bring mostly mvfr and ifr conditions in lower cigs and vsbys
with light rain and mist. however, lifr cigs between 15z and
19z tue for ksbn and lifr cigs for kfwa between 15z and 23z tue
will be expected. there will continue to be a bit of up and
down with the vsbys/cigs due to the nature of the rain showers
and mixing of drier air with a dry slot moving into area this
afternoon. southwesterly winds will be on the increase after
09z-10z wed with gusts around 20-25 kts through the remainder of
this taf period further wind increases are expected beyond this
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning from 4 am wednesday to 1 am est friday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
451
fxus63 kdtx 251629
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1129 am est tue nov 25 2025

.key messages...

- rain showers fill in across southern lower michigan during the
morning and continue this afternoon until diminishing this evening.

- passage of a strong cold front is on schedule for wednesday
morning. westerly wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected, with a
chance of gusts around 45 mph by afternoon.

- the strong wind gusts continue wednesday night into thanksgiving
day while also bringing a surge of colder temperatures. wind chill
in the teens is expected by thanksgiving morning.

- lake effect snow showers ramp up wednesday night through
thanksgiving day and linger into thursday night. travel will likely
be affected by highly variable accumulation ranging from a half inch
to around 2 inches.

- snow showers diminish during friday while cold air remains
entrenched across the region.

&&

.aviation...

the ongoing influx of low level moisture is driving ceilings down to
ifr and lifr. the region of higher intensity rain will largely lift
northeast of terminals around or shortly after 18z as mid level dry
air overspreads srn lower mi. however, continued low level moisture
advection will sustain areas of drizzle into the evening. upstream
observations are supportive of lifr conditions during much of the
afternoon and evening hours. southerly flow will increase during the
night, adding some subtle mixing to the boundary layer. this will
likely trend conditions to prevailing ifr. a strong cold front will
traverse the terminals around 12z. a line of showers, shallow
convection, will accompany the frontal passage. strong post frontal
cold air advection within a strengthening low level wind field will
result in post frontal wind gusts over 30 knots by late wed morning.

for dtw...upstream observations are supportive prevailing ifr and
lifr conditions in drizzle into late evening. the cold front is
forecast move across metro around 12z wednesday. a rapid increase
in sw winds is forecast thereafter.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon through
wednesday afternoon.

* low for ceiling below 200 ft or visibility below 1/2 sm this
evening.

* moderate for precip as snow wednesday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 403 am est tue nov 25 2025

discussion...

a few early morning pockets of sprinkles with temperatures in the
lower to mid 40s lead up to the rain event that is otherwise on
schedule for se mi today. the latest satellite and radar depictions
indicate the governing mid ms valley short wave shearing
aggressively into the southern great lakes while forcing a plume of
moisture transport out ahead of its path. showers spread sw to ne
across southern lower mi on the lead flank of dcva and within the
northern fringe of the 850-700 mb theta-e ridge resulting in peak
coverage across se mi during the late morning and early afternoon.
the pattern gradually shifts eastward late in the day as the surface
pressure reflection occludes while grazing the area and the shifting
into ontario by evening. average rainfall totals hold around 0.25
inch with higher amounts located farther south/east in the upper
ohio valley to mid appalachians where peak low level jet driven
theta-e advection occurs with a boost from both the short wave and
favorable alignment of the upper jet.

today`s system leaves behind a mild and moisture laden air mass
within a diffuse surface pressure trough tonight. it supports low
clouds, patchy drizzle, and fog as temperatures hover in the 40s
across se mi. there is also the chance for a stray rain shower as
the surface trough connects to the rapidly developing upper midwest
low pressure system which remains on schedule to send a powerful
cold front across lower mi late tonight and wednesday morning. model
trends on this system show a slight southward adjustment on the
surface low center under a stronger negatively tilted 500 mb trough,
but remain rock solid on the frontal timing and strength across
lower mi. a broken line of rain showers sweep across the area with
the front and both the showers and wind shift could produce a pop of
40 mph wind gusts while moving rapidly across the area. the front is
followed by a textbook dry slot and low level thermal trough driving
across lower mi that organizes and longer duration wind concern
later in the day. advisory level wind gusts are the primary concern
as strong downward momentum transport is set to occur within the
increasing wind field as the system strongly occludes to the north.
a survey of model soundings support the areal coverage detail in the
href mean 10 m wind gusts that show speed reaching toward 45 mph
first toward the ohio border during the afternoon. stronger winds
spread northward late in the day and wednesday evening as the
gradient reorients into nw flow with eastward track of the surface
low center east of lake superior.

strong wind gusts continue across the area wednesday night while the
focus also shifts to continued refinement of lake effect snow
potential. while the wind ramps up, the temperature steadily drops
wednesday afternoon on a pace for scattered rain showers becoming
mixed with snow showers late afternoon, and then all snow showers by
evening as freezing level drops and surface temperature falls into
the lower to mid 30s by sunset. greater availability of hi-res model
data supports bulk wind, temperature, and rh fields in regional
models that focus on the i-94 corridor for the initial lake effect
activity. the higher wind speed and convective depth near 700 mb in
model soundings add confidence to expectations for coverage and
intensity capable of the initial 2 inch accumulation targets in the
going forecast wednesday night into thanksgiving morning with a
chance of travel impacts.

thanksgiving day conditions provide just incremental relief from the
wind while temperatures hover in the 30s with wind chill mainly in
the teens. wind turning toward the nw with some mid level subsidence
drying around the west flank of the upper level low shifts greater
lake effect coverage from the i-94 corridor toward the ohio border
while also shrinking coverage back toward lake michigan. the wind
trend refocuses lake effect potential toward the thumb and tri
cities, especially if lake superior connection can be maintained.
moisture quality then becomes an issue thursday night as the parent
low pressure system migrates eastward, and stronger synoptic scale
subsidence brings an end to this lake effect event by friday. the
lake effect diminishes, however winter weather conditions remain
active during the weekend as cold air remains entrenched ahead of
the next low pressure system. this system will be capable of another
round of snow accumulation saturday and sunday.

marine...

southerly wind remains on the order of 10 kt today while backing to
the southeast as weak low pressure tracks into the southern great
lakes. an area of rain will accompany this system through the day.

a second, stronger low pressure system arrives from the midwest
tonight, deepening considerably as it tracks across the northern
great lakes wednesday into wednesday night. this system will be
responsible for a long duration gale event and the arrival of the
coldest air of the season so far. a strong cold front will sweep
across the central lakes wednesday morning with wsw gales in its
wake, then a secondary cold front will shift winds to wnw to nw by
thursday into friday. there is high confidence in gales during this
period and a gale watch remains in effect for all marine zones. the
peak of the event is expected wednesday afternoon into wednesday
night with sustained gales across most of the region. gusts during
this period are forecast to occasionally reach 40 to 45 kt across
southern and central lake huron, including saginaw bay. gales may be
slow to start across northern lake huron during the day wednesday as
the center of the low tracks in the vicinity, but nw winds will
increase rapidly there wednesday night after the low passes. 35 to
40 kt gales will continue through thursday.

rain showers on wednesday change over to snow late in the day with
snow squalls likely on thursday. gales gradually subside on friday
but wind remains gusty out of the northwest with additional snow
showers. winds weaken further on saturday as narrow high pressure
works in ahead of the next system set to arrive by sunday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from noon wednesday to 7 am est friday for lhz361-362.

gale warning from 7 am wednesday to 10 am est friday for lhz363-421-
422-441>443-462>464.

low water advisory from 7 am wednesday to midnight est wednesday
night for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est friday for lez444.

low water advisory from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.