Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 220545
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
145 am edt thu oct 22 2026

.what has changed...
areas of fog have been expanded this morning and friday morning.
widespread frost has been added to saturday morning`s forecast and
there may be some freeze potential.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather will continue for the rest of the week
into next week. there will be daily morning fog chances today and
friday. widespread frost with some freeze potential is possible on
saturday morning and may be the next frost/freeze headline
window.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
strong high pressure will continue to build into the region
from the northeast, allowing for dry and seasonable conditions
to continue through early next week. some residual moisture and
the long nights will allow for some morning fog this morning and
friday morning, especially in northwest and north central ohio.
with the strongest advance of high pressure on saturday
morning, temperatures will drop into the 30s for much of the
area and some sheltered locations may see upper 20s. widespread
to areas of frost will be expected and there will also be some
freeze potential. saturday morning may be the next frost/freeze
headline window.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr across the taf sites early this morning with some deterioration
to non-vfr vsbys over the next several hours, mainly across the
interior locations (fdy/mfd/yng) associated with patchy dense
fog. already seeing some radiational fog development on
satellite imagery, particularly near mfd and yng, though
anticipating the fog to be less widespread compared to last
night across northwest ohio. conditions areawide will improve to
vfr by mid-morning. patchy dense fog is possible again late
tonight into friday morning.

winds are generally light and variable early this morning. winds
will increase later this morning and afternoon and favor a north
to northeast direction, 5 to 7 knots.

outlook...periods of overnight patchy dense fog may impact taf
sites into friday. otherwise, primarily vfr is expected.

&&

.marine...
high pressure building into the region from the northeast will allow
for northeast flow to continue on lake erie through friday.
northeast flow will be up to 10 kts today and 15 kts on friday and
waves should generally remain 2 ft or less. high pressure will shift
south on saturday and remain southeast of the lake on sunday and
monday. this will allow for easterly flow on saturday before
offshore flow returns on sunday and monday. overall, marine
headlines are not expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...kahn
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 220730
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
330 am edt thu oct 22 2026

.key messages...

- patchy fog is expected to continue develop this morning,
especially south of us route 24 across northeast indiana and
northwest ohio. the patchy fog may be locally dense. fog may
become more widespread thursday night into early friday
morning across northwest ohio.

- dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt thu oct 22 2026

a short wave trough continues to dive southeast across southeast
ontario this morning. low level ridging is being reinforced behind
this short wave across the mid ms river valley, and this will
prolong the period of weak gradient that has been in place locally
the past several days. ideal radiational cooling conditions this
morning will continue to support some patchy fog potential, and
present indications still suggest that southeast portions of the
area downwind of eastern great lakes may experience a brief period
of greater fog coverage this morning south of us route 24 across
northeast indiana and northwest ohio. otherwise for today large
scale flow amplification is expected as a stronger upper vort lobe
across southeast canada phases with an atlantic vort max. meanwhile,
a cut-off upper low will continue to migrate slowly eastward into
southern california this evening. this evolution will result an
amplifying low/upper level ridging across central conus and south
central canada. low level/near sfc winds will veer more easterly as
this amplification occurs which will result in continued weak
thermal advections over the next 24 hours. thus, a persistence
forecast has been utilized once again today in terms of max
temps. the veering low level flow may allow some slightly better
low level moisture to drop south into the area from the great
lakes, but the only possible effect from this weak advection
would be some very low coverage diurnal cu that will not have
any impact on temps today.

this transition back to low level easterlies will likely support
additional stratus/fog development downwind of the eastern great
lakes tonight, with a potential of some dense fog early friday
morning across northwest ohio, south central michigan, and
possibly into portions of northeast indiana. low temperatures
tonight will drop back into the low 40s once again, but may dip
into upper 30s for favored, cool low-lying spots.

guidance is starting to come into a bit better agreement
regarding large scale flow through the weekend. a stronger and
more progressive northern stream upper level system will shift
across south central canada this weekend which will drive a cold
front boundary southward across the great lakes. track of this
northern stream wave is expected to remain well to the north,
and departure of this wave will likely hang up the front north
of the local area through the weekend. with forcing/frontal
position to the north, and narrow zone of better pre-frontal
moisture transport remaining from the central plains to the
northern great lakes, a dry forecast remains intact through
monday. the warmest days of this forecast period still look to
be sunday/monday as veered low level flow allows for some modest
increase in low level warm advection.

by tuesday/wednesday the southern stream cut-off low is expected to
eject east and dampen. this wave could interact with the stalled
frontal boundary across the upper ms valley to the great lakes with
some weak isentropic ascent possible. given dampening nature of this
wave and likely marginal moisture profiles, blended pops remain only
in the 10 to 20 percent range toward the end of this forecast valid
period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 152 am edt thu oct 22 2026

no significant changes have been made for the 06z tafs with main
forecast concern continued on patchy fog potential across
northeast indiana. low level anticyclone has shifted a bit
southwest over time leading to a weak northeasterly low level
flow over the eastern great lakes. these flow trajectories may
promote some patchy fog development particularly at kfwa and
points southeast. while dense fog is not expected to be as
widespread as yesterday morning, conditions remain favorable for
patchy fog which may be locally dense. have trended tafs to a
period of mvfr vsbys from 09z-13z with a more focused period of
ifr vsbys at kfwa. fog should dissipate more quickly this
morning compared to yesterday. the low level ridge axis will
amplify across the great lakes today into tonight leading to
low level winds becoming more easterly toward end of this
forecast valid period. this easterly flow regime will likely
cause fog to form again tonight, and will address this with the
12z tafs. winds will remain light through the period due to the
influence of the sfc ridge axis.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 220732
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
332 am edt thu oct 22 2026

.key messages...

- patchy fog possible this morning with better coverage of fog
friday morning.

- mild and dry through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

longwave ridging over the central plains will strengthen and expand
into the great lakes through saturday in response to a closed low
near the four corners opening up across the rockies with and
interaction with additional upper level disturbances/troughing that
builds in across the pacific northwest. this will reinforce high
pressure across the great lakes resulting in persistence forecast to
end the week. highs will again push into the upper 60s today,
possibly peaking around 70 under mostly sunny skies. clear skies and
light winds overnight will likely lead to patchy or areas of fog,
possibly dense, given the supplementation of shallow low-level
moisture under the light northeast flow. fog likely expands from the
thumb and tri- cities before pushing into the interior of se mi
before lifting by daybreak. temperatures then return back into the
mid 60s for a high under sunny skies. outside of radiational fog
concerns in the mornings, above normal temperatures under mostly
clear skies persists into the weekend.

the upper level ridge will flatten monday into tuesday over the
great lakes with a cold front pushing over the state. limited
moisture under a weaker temperature gradient will not bring any
concrete rain chances thus pop values will remain sub 15%, however,
flattening of the upper-level will direct better moisture and cloud
coverage downstream. temperatures moderate back towards seasonal
normals through at least the early week period. ml-models are much
more progressive with the forecasted pacific trough by the middle of
next week relative to the deterministic counterparts, which would
again bring about above normal temperatures by the middle of next
week if they verify, as the warmer air across the plains streams
into the great lakes.

&&

.marine...

high pressure builds into the great lakes today behind a departing
weak surface trough. northeast wind becomes established this
afternoon, peaking around 10 to 15 kt. light flow veers around to
southeast on friday, then becomes more southerly on saturday as the
center of high pressure sinks southward from quebec toward new
england. a slight uptick in wind speeds will be possible this
weekend in advance of the next weak trough set to arrive from the
northwest.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1145 pm edt wed oct 21 2026

aviation...

extended stretch of dry and stable conditions will continue under
general high pressure. this will limit cloud production outside of
some passing cirrus tonight and a lower coverage of diurnal vfr cu
thursday. there remains some potential for shallow fog formation
late tonight, with greater probability still focused in the vicinity
of mbs/fnt around daybreak.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......tf
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.