Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 030634
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
234 am edt mon aug 3 2026

.what has changed...
a few isolated light showers may continue over far ne oh and nw pa
tonight, but the heavy rain and severe potential has ended.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions are expected today and tuesday before the
chance of showers and thunderstorms returns wednesday afternoon
through friday. near normal temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as a low pressure system continues to drift toward the northeast us
today, high pressure is expected to build southeast across the area
and allow for dry and pleasant conditions today and tomorrow with
highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s and sunny skies. this
high pressure will drift off the mid-atlantic coast by wednesday as
a weak low pressure and mid-level shortwave push northeast along the
appalachian mountains. this disturbance will allow for the return of
showers and possible thunderstorms along and east of i-71. given the
positioning of the low, much of the area may remain dry until a
broad upper level trough begins to impact the region on thursday.

on thursday, the aforementioned trough will begin to advect mid-
level energy into the region as it moves a surface cold front east.
models suggest this cold front stalling somewhere near the central
great lakes region and acting as a path for an additional surface
low to move from the plains into the region. additionally, increase
moisture and waa should assist with destabilization across the area
on thursday presenting the potential for thunderstorms during the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. another round of convection
is possible again on friday as the aforementioned boundary slowly
meanders east. will have to keep an eye on this boundary as current
models suggest that the positioning of the mean flow could result in
the training of some storms. in addition, given the spread amongst
models, there is low confidence in the severe potential, but will
need to keep an eye on it given the favorable synoptic setup.
temperatures throughout the week are expected to remain near normal
with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
rain activity has pushed east of the area early this morning,
but ceilings remain a mixed bag with vfr and clearing in nw oh
and a variety of mvfr and ifr ceilings further east. clouds
should remain across the bulk of the airspace with cooler
northerly flow over lake erie continuing to support clouds
overnight. with time overnight, the ifr should erode and by done
around daybreak. high pressure will continue to build into the
region on monday and skies will clear and all terminals will pop
up to vfr. winds will remain northerly through the period,
decreasing as the day progresses.

outlook...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
potential for non-vfr are possible on wednesday through friday,
primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
elevated northerly flow continues for the central basin of lake
erie. waves of 2 to 5 ft will continue through the late morning
hours with this flow and the small craft advisories and beach
hazards statements will remain until 11 am. high pressure
building into the region will allow for winds on the lake to
diminish through the day. winds will become light and variable
tonight into tuesday with the high over the region. high
pressure will shift east for tuesday night into wednesday and
some southerly winds will return to the lake before a lake
breeze kicks in on wednesday afternoon. several weak systems
passing to the northwest will allow for southwest flow to be
favored over the lake on thursday and continuing through the end
of the week. once marine headlines end later today, there are
not future marine headlines anticipated at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 11 am edt this morning for
ohz009>012-089.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 031024
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
624 am edt mon aug 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions today into wednesday. expect partly to mostly
clear skies and light winds. highs will range from 77 to 86
degrees, warmest wednesday. patchy fog this morning will
diminish after sunrise.

- dangerous swimming conditions are expected at lake michigan
beaches along the la porte county, in and berrien county, mi
shoreline early this morning. a beach hazards statement is in
effect until 8 am edt. for details, visit
www.weather.gov/greatlakes/beachhazards

- chances for showers and storms return wednesday night and
persist into the weekend. the best potential (30-60 percent)
will be wednesday night into thursday, then lower chances (20
to 40 percent) persist into the weekend. highs will be in the
80s thursday into the weekend, warmest sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 623 am edt mon aug 3 2026

an upper level ridge/sfc high pressure builds in today and lingers
through wed. because of this, we have a nice break in active weather
today into wednesday, with partly to mostly clear skies, light
winds, and highs in the upper 70s, low-mid 80s. patchy fog is
possible early this morning, but should improve shortly after
sunrise.

a beach hazards statement remains in effect through 8 am edt for
lake mi beaches along the berrien co, mi and la porte co, in
shoreline. waves per latest buoy obs were around 2-4 feet with 5-7
second periods (45026 cook nuclear/45168 south haven, mi; sadly
45170 at michigan city, in is not reporting this morning). allowed
the small craft to expire as planned at 5 am edt this morning, and i
suspect we will be able to drop the bh.s at 8 am edt as planned,
with waves dropping to around 1-2 feet by early afternoon. have a
high swim risk for la porte/southern berrien county this morning,
dropping to a moderate swim risk after the statement expires.
despite wave heights dropping, strong currents are likely to be
present through at least early afternoon (especially southern
berrien/la porte). by the 4-5 pm update this aft/eve we should be
low swim risk at most if not all of the beaches. with the high waves
and winds, we had some upwelling at the beaches-so water temps
dropped from around 66 degrees yesterday to about 57 degrees today.
pretty chilly for august!

next chance for showers and storms looks to be wed night, continuing
through the weekend. our upper level ridge drifts eastward and a
broad trough stemming from a closed low over hudson bay takes hold
of the great lakes region. at the surface, a cold front moves in wed
pm and stalls out in northern indiana/nw oh/lower mi/il. by friday,
return flow stemming from high pressure system off the eastern
seaboard will bring warm air/moisture northward, which will re-
orient the front (originally from sw to ne) to be more w-e
(generally along i 80-90). this could serve as a focus for continued
precipitation chances friday into saturday night. models don`t
exactly agree on the broader pattern/precipitation location in this
late week/weekend period, so kept chances limited to 15-30 percent
later friday afternoon into saturday/sunday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 146 am edt mon aug 3 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals through the
period, with mvfr conditions possible this morning at both sites
due to br development under mostly clear skies with light winds.
for now, have both sites dropping to 4sm between 9-12/13z. br is
more likely at kfwa thanks to lingering low level moisture, with
some models indicating drops to ifr/2sm briefly. kept it
conservative for now, will modify if it appears ifr conditions
are more of a possibility.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 7 am cdt this morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 8 am edt this morning for miz177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 030959
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
559 am edt mon aug 3 2026

.key messages...

- high pressure establishes pleasant weather today through tuesday
with warm days (80s) and cool nights (50s).

- the next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives late
wednesday. better coverage is expected thursday.

- mainly dry weather is expected to start the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

inbound high pressure maintains dry and stable conditions with clear
skies through the day. patchy morning ground fog has been developing
over parts of lower mi given the favorable radiating conditions -
this will mix out over the next couple of hours. light northerly
wind trends variable by this evening then calm tonight as the center
of high pressure works in. given upstream observations, another
round of patchy fog will be possible tuesday morning but limited
moisture should mitigate widespread impacts.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through tuesday
morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 am edt mon aug 3 2026

discussion...

high pressure brings pleasant weather to se mi during the early week
period. it ensures dry conditions and seasonable temperatures with
lower humidity today and tuesday. for today, the surface ridge axis
is positioned to our west which maintains a light but steady
northerly low level wind field. low level dry air advection drops
surface td comfortably down into the mid 50s across the region. full
sun and maximum daytime surface heating build a deep boundary layer
in model soundings that is way too dry for any cumulus during the
afternoon. guidance highs in the lower 80s are right at normal values
for early august. onshore flow into the thumb shoreline keeps
readings a few degrees cooler.

high pressure slides steadily across lower mi tonight and early
tuesday becoming centered over pa/ny by afternoon. this results in
light sw wind into lower mi which combines with the mid/upper level
ridge overhead to lift temperatures a few more degrees both tuesday
and wednesday. guidance highs in the mid 80s look reasonable each
day while there is a greater mid/high cloud component and an uptick
in humidity by wednesday afternoon.

wednesday`s cloud and humidity increases are driven by continued sw
flow between atlantic coast high pressure and the next low pressure
and frontal system moving in from the plains/midwest. there are
still some timing differences among the 00z deterministic models
regarding the position of the surface low/front wednesday and
wednesday night. considering the mid/upper level trough spends much
of the day digging southward into the plains states, prefer model
solutions offering slower eastward frontal progress until wednesday
night and thursday for se mi. it then looks like a slow frontal
passage through the area thursday into friday as the mid/upper level
long wave trough hangs to our west while guiding a new short wave
system from the plains into the great lakes. if this feature does
materialize, then it would help nudge the front through lower mi into
ontario/ohio where it dissipates to begin the weekend.

marine...

high pressure influence builds into the region today offering drier
weather and weaker winds. light flow flips southerly on tuesday as
the center of high pressure slides across lake erie. a slow moving
frontal boundary will drift in from the west mid-week leading to
future opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. no significant
pressure gradient constriction is forecast, therefore headline-free
conditions should persist through the end of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.