Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
589
fxus61 kcle 140802
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
402 am edt thu may 14 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains valid through the middle of next week. no major
changes to note.

&&

.key messages...
1.) lake-effect/enhanced rain showers end today and below-
average air temperatures persist through tonight.

2.) a warming trend is expected this friday through tuesday
night.

3.) cooler weather is expected next week wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a longwave trough aloft exits e`ward through tonight as its axis
moves from near western ny and the central appalachians early
this morning to western new england and just offshore the
delmarva peninsula by daybreak friday. otherwise, a surface high
pressure ridge continues to build from the western great lakes
and vicinity, and the portion of this ridge in the mid/upper-
levels will begin to build from the west by tonight. this weather
pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain net
low-level caa and an unusually-cold air mass across our cwa.
highs are expected to reach only the upper 40`s to lower 50`s
in nw pa and the 50`s to mid 60`s in northern oh late this
afternoon. tonight`s lows are expected to reach mainly the 40`s
around daybreak friday. however, clearer sky and resulting
greater nocturnal cooling should contribute to lows reaching the
upper 30`s in portions of interior ne oh.

light lake-effect/enhanced rain showers will persist over and
generally southeast of lake erie this morning, especially
central and eastern portions of the lake, amidst a primarily
nw`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air
over/downwind of the ~13c lake, weak lake-induced cape, and a
periodic seeder-feeder process amidst a sufficiently-cold/moist
low/mid-level atmospheric column and isentropic ascent ahead of
shortwave trough axes embedded in the aforementioned longwave
trough aloft. during this afternoon through about sunset this
evening, lingering lake-effect/enhanced rain showers are
expected to end from west to east and give way to dry weather
region-wide for tonight as lake-induced cape wanes amidst
low/mid-level dry air advection and a lowering subsidence
inversion accompanying the ridge that will build from the west.

key message 2...
a warming trend is expected this friday through tuesday night
as the ridge at the surface and aloft exits slowly e`ward and
our region becomes located within a net low-level waa regime
along the western flank of the ridge. at the surface, a warm
front is forecast to sweep n`ward through our region friday
night, while a cold front should approach our cwa from the
northwest on saturday through saturday night before stalling in
vicinity of southern lower mi and the northern shore of lake
erie by sunday. this surface front should then retreat n`ward as
a warm front and away from our region by monday before a a cold
front approaches from the northwest by tuesday night as one
frontal surface low moves generally e`ward from the upper
midwest toward southern qc and is followed by a separate frontal
surface low that should undergo lee cyclogenesis east of the co
rockies and then move ne`ward toward the northern great lakes.
moderating temperatures should include daytime highs in the 60`s
to lower 70`s on friday followed by daytime highs in the mid
80`s to near 90f this monday and tuesday, respectively.

periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight
friday night through tuesday night as a low-level return flow
of warm, moist, and at least weakly-unstable air originating
over the gulf becomes established in our region, moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of friday night`s warm
front releases at least weak and elevated instability, and
multiple shortwave troughs embedded in the primarily sw`erly
flow aloft and attendant surface trough axes traverse our cwa
friday night through tuesday night. note: strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible this saturday afternoon and evening
amidst weak to moderate boundary layer cape, steep mid-level
lapse rates near 7c/km to 7.5c/km associated with an eml plume
that should traverse our region generally from west to east, and
moderate to strong deep layer-bulk shear.

key message 3...
during this upcoming wednesday, the surface cold front should
sweep se`ward across our region as the aforementioned co low moves
generally e`ward from the northern great lakes toward southern
qc and shortwave disturbances embedded in primarily w`erly flow
aloft traverse our cwa. scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms should impact northern oh and nw pa as
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and surface trough
axes accompanying the shortwave troughs aloft release at least
weak boundary layer cape in the warm/moist sector. given the
expectation of scattered to widespread precip and greater cloud
cover, wednesday should be cooler and feature daytime highs in
mainly the 70`s to near 80f.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
lake enhanced rain showers are ongoing across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania as a trough resides over the eastern
great lakes. ceilings are generally mvfr although a few pockets
of ifr are also present in ne ohio with vfr conditions at
tol/fdy. this trend with lower conditions in the east and vfr in
the west is expected to continue into thursday morning and a
window of ifr ceilings are likely at yng/eri. the precipitation
is generally expected to become more scattered after 12z and
taper off from northwest to southeast through 16z. skies will tend
to scatter out from west to east through the afternoon. winds
will be west to northwest overnight and expect to see
northwesterly wind gusts increase after 14z to 22-28 knots
through the afternoon. winds will trend more northerly after 23z
and gusts will diminish, becoming increasingly light towards
06z.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms saturday afternoon and evening. additional non-vfr
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms sunday
afternoon and evening, though chances are lower.

&&

.marine...
a brisk northwest wind continues on lake erie today as the lake
resides between high pressure over lake michigan and low pressure
near lake ontario. a small craft advisory remains in effect on the
central basin from the islands to erie pa where the waves will
remain elevated in the 3 to 5 foot range through midday before
decreasing. it is possible that areas from cleveland to ashtabula
may even need to be extended a few more hours.

high pressure will build overhead tonight through friday with good
marine conditions. southwest winds return on saturday but overall
winds are expected to be 5-15 knots over the weekend. a bigger
concern over the weekend will be potential for showers and
thunderstorms on the lake and erratic winds associated with
those.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until noon edt today for lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 140648
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
248 am edt thu may 14 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool today with highs in the 60s.

- 20-30% chances for light rain showers south of us 24 on friday

- periodic chances for showers and storms over the weekend into
early next week.

- trending warmer and increasingly humid through early next week
with highs in the 80s saturday through at least monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 248 am edt thu may 14 2026

today will be a picture perfect day across the midwest and great
lakes regions. cyclonic flow on the backside of a low pressure
system centered over the northeast will continue today with light
northwest winds and highs only topping out in the low to mid 60s.
with high pressure building in overhead, lots of sunshine is
expected today as drier air works in. a weak forcing with an
incoming 500mb shortwave brings us our next, albeit low, chances for
rain on friday, although there will still be a lot of dry air to
overcome near the surface. light rain will be possible friday
morning and early afternoon (20-30% chances), mainly south of us 24.

a big pattern change is ahead this weekend into early next week!
deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show a strong
consensus for high pressure building over the southeastern us and an
amplified upper level ridge taking shape over the great lakes. our
first occurrence of summer-like heat and humidity for the year
will arrive by the weekend into early next week. temperatures
will steadily increase each day, with highs in the 70s friday
and into the low to mid 80s both saturday and sunday. in
accordance with the previous shift, have coordinated with wpc
and other neighboring offices to keep monday`s highs capped in
the mid to upper 80s. while it is not out of the question that
some locations south of us 24 could reach 90 degrees, the nbm
was coming in much too warm at nearly 100th percentile of model
guidance with widespread low 90s for forecast highs.

breezy southerly winds will allow for a gulf connection to develop
over the weekend. increased moisture transport from the gulf into
our forecast area will lead to a stark increase in humidity. by
sunday and monday, dewpoints should be well into the 60s, which will
definitely make for very humid conditions in combination with the
above normal temperatures. this hot and humid pattern is favorable
for daily rain and storm chances. finer details are still murky this
far out as to exactly where and when it may rain/storm, but it does
not appear like each day will be a washout. the best chances for
rain/storms will be saturday afternoon/evening (60-80% chances) and
again monday and tuesday (30-60% chances in the evening and early
overnight). a low pressure system will develop across the central
plains and lift into the upper midwest by monday; i would not be
surprised if spc extends their day 5 (monday) and day 6 (tuesday)
severe risks eastward into our area with their update later this
morning with such a hot, humid airmass in place. substantial
spread in model guidance exists this far out but with a warm
front lifting north through our forecast area on monday and an
attendant cold front tuesday, there could be strong to severe
storms both days.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 109 am edt thu may 14 2026

with high pressure building overhead, a dry and quiet day is
ahead with mostly clear skies. light northwest winds and vfr
ceilings persist overnight; winds will gradually increase to
around 10 kts this morning after sunrise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 140712
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
312 am edt thu may 14 2026

.key messages...

- big warmup ahead: high temperatures expected to climb into the
upper 70s to possibly lower 80s this weekend. even warmer early next
week.

- multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms this weekend
through early next week.

&&

.discussion...

the forecast through the early part of next week will be
characterized by a significant pattern shift, marked by a robust
spring warmup and an increasingly active convective regime as the
great lakes region becomes positioned on the periphery of an
amplifying subtropical ridge. for the short term, clouds are still
holding strong currently, as 00z dtx sounding revealed rather deep
cloud layer/saturation depths. still, with clear skies observed over
far western lower michigan and heights quickly rebounding this
morning, conditions will allow for a quick west-to-east clearing
trend. low-level winds remain northwest today, but subsidence will
allow for moderation of the airmass. with 850 mb temps progged to
reach 3.5 to 4 c, maxes should lift into the low to mid-60s across
most locations. a strong upper-level wave over the northern rockies
will move into central canada tonight, but a significant
shortwave/attached upper-level pv filament is expected to track
through lake superior friday morning. lack of forcing over southeast
michigan and remnant dry air in place is expected to keep us dry
tonight and friday as warm air then surges into the state. although,
i would not totally rule out a few sprinkles friday morning
(especially in the tri-cities region), as seen in rrfs and arw.

the trend for saturday is now for an mcv to come out of the midwest
friday night. pops have been ramped up, which will of course impact
the maxes. i am not confident in reaching 80+ degrees anymore,
despite the nbm advertising lower 80s (which is possible if
convection fails to materialize and convective debris is limited)
based on 850 mb temps of 14+ c. if timing of the mcv corresponds
with peak heating, mlcape reaching aoa 1000 j/kg would pose a
marginal severe threat with the stronger wind fields noted.

the end of the weekend into early next week features further
amplification of the upper-level pattern. a strong storm system will
develop over the plains as a trough digs over the rockies and a
ridge builds along the east coast. strengthening deep southwest flow
on monday potentially leads to our first 90-degree day, but the warm
front lifting through sunday night will have to clear the cwa
cleanly and we will have to remain capped during the day. the main
moisture surge and warm front lifting through late sunday and sunday
night looks to become active with sufficient forcing and instability
to support showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...

low pressure gradually drifts into the atlantic coast today in favor
of high pressure moving in from the west. northwest flow subsides as
the local gradient relaxes, allowing the remaining small craft
advisories to expire this afternoon. high pressure then drifts
overhead this evening through friday, causing winds to back from
northwest to southerly ahead of the next low pressure center to move
across ontario this weekend. dry conditions expected during this
period. surface troughing that extends south from this low then
reaches the great lakes saturday, bringing the next opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms as well as breezy southerly flow.
unsettled conditions carry into early next week as additional
disturbances impact the great lakes region.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1050 pm edt wed may 13 2026

aviation...

mvfr ceilings are vacating to northern ohio as drier low level air
is drawn into the area. upstream observations show ceilings ranging
from 5-7kft which will expand over the region through the rest of
the night. scattering in cloud coverage also expected towards the
early morning hours as drier air becomes more established. that
said, some vfr diurnal cloud still possible by late thursday
morning. modest nnw with peak gusts near 20kts hold for much of the
day thursday before high pressure builds overhead supporting light
and variable flow by thursday night.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are in the forecast today
through thursday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight, low by thursday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......mv
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.