Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
894
fxus61 kcle 022345
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
745 pm edt sun aug 2 2026

.what has changed...
overall, the forecast largely remains on track through this
afternoon/evening. heavy rainfall remains possible across the
majority of the area into this evening with a low-end severe
weather risk mainly along/east of i-71.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and scattered thunderstorms are still expected this
afternoon into this evening. heavy rainfall is likely and
isolated strong to severe storms remain possible in the eastern
half of the area.

2) after dry weather monday and tuesday, shower and storm
chances will return for wednesday through the end of the week.
temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will continue to slowly move east across the area
through tonight. as of now, the most widespread showers with
heavy rainfall rates are over lake erie, but showers and
thunderstorms will most likely begin to fill in as the upper
trough axis moves into a more unstable environment across the
eastern half of the area this afternoon. clearing has allowed
mlcape values to increase to around 1000 j/kg across portions of
ne oh/nw pa and at least 500 j/kg elsewhere along/east of i-71.
this will be the area to watch for thunderstorm and heavy rain
development this afternoon into this evening. pwat values are
currently around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and dew points are in the
upper 70s and lower 70s, which supports potential for torrential
rainfall rates. there is also potential for training in
locations where mean steering flow is more southerly. the
torrential rainfall rates in tandem with training could result
in flash flooding. the best chance of heavy rainfall will be
where showers are more convective and at this point that appears
to be most favorable across portions of ne oh/nw pa. a flood
watch remains in effect for most western zones until 5 pm and
along/east of i-71 until midnight tonight. the heaviest rainfall
has ended for lucas/wood/hancock counties so have been able to
cancel that portion of the watch.

given the destabilization in the eastern half of the area and
effective bulk shear values of around 35 knots, there is
potential for damaging wind gusts in any robust thunderstorms
that develop. there is also a low-end tornado risk given the
wind field and low lcls. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
of severe weather across the eastern half of the area.

key message 2...
the low will exit to the east on monday, allowing surface high
pressure to expand across the area as an upper low settles to
the south of the region through tuesday. dry weather is
expected for the first two days of the week before the upper
low lifts north in response to a trough moving east across the
upper midwest. this will cause shower and thunderstorm chances
to return to the area wednesday into next weekend. temperatures
will generally be around normal next week with highs in the 80s
each day and lows in the 60s most nights. monday night will be
the chilliest night of the week with widespread highs in the 50s
expected.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
with the passage of a cold front, thunderstorms have generally
moved east and out of the immediate forecast area. light showers
are expected to continue and move east as the upper level
trough exits the great lakes. ceilings have lowered below 020
across northern ohio, with a few locations at/below 010. these
mvfr ceilings are expected to spread across the forecast area
overnight as cooler air moves into the region. however,
northwestern ohio sites will remain largely vfr. "sunrise
surprise" mvfr fog is likely to develop across far eastern
portions of the area tomorrow morning where soils are more
saturated and winds are light.

outlook...high pressure remains in place monday and tuesday
with generally vfr conditions. isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms with potential for non- vfr wednesday through
friday, primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
onshore winds around 20 knots will continue in the western and
central basins through most of tonight before diminishing below
15 knots during the day monday. beach hazards statements and
small craft advisories remain in effect for the lake through
late tonight (west of the islands) and early monday morning (the
islands to conneaut oh). variable winds 10 knots or less are
expected tuesday onwards.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 2 am edt monday for ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement through monday morning for ohz009>012-
089.
flood watch until midnight edt tonight for ohz014-023-033-089.
pa...flood watch until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt monday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 11 am edt monday for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...27
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
326
fxus63 kiwx 022321
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
721 pm edt sun aug 2 2026

.key messages...

- isolated showers diminish this evening with dry weather expected
to persist through wednesday afternoon.

- dangerous swimming conditions are expected at lake michigan
beaches along the la porte county, in and berrien county, mi
shoreline through tonight. life-threatening waves and currents
are expected. a beach hazards statement is in effect. for
details, visit www.weather.gov/greatlakes/beachhazards

- periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms for much of the late
wednesday through first part of the weekend period.

- conditions are expected to warm again late in the forecast period
next weekend into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt sun aug 2 2026

the slow moving upper trough responsible for rain over past few
days will become increasing sheared in nature into this evening
and will become more progressive as it shifts to the eastern
great lakes by monday morning. weakening nature of this trough
has left an elongated mid level deformation zone across far ne
in/nw oh this afternoon which was a focal point for some locally
heavy rainfall earlier this morning. better deep column
moisture axis is beginning to exit this area this afternoon and
expecting these deformation-forced showers to continue to sag
southeast and exit the area early this evening. the potential
for flooding has diminished and the flood watch for ne in/nw oh
has been cancelled.

an upper speed max diving across the great lakes region may aid in
the development of a few isolated showers this afternoon,
particularly along what appears to be a weak differential
heating boundary across lower michigan downstream of this
trough. with lessening deep layer moisture these showers are not
expected to pose any significant hydro threat before
diminishing early this evening.

an overall quiet pattern will then take shape tonight through
wednesday. a longwave upper ridge building across the mid/upper ms
valley will allow an expansive low level anticyclone to overspread
the great lakes on monday. this should provide slightly below normal
temperatures for monday with some slight modification to near
normal temps for tuesday.

guidance has been fairly consistent in a stronger warm/moist
low level advection push late wednesday night into thursday
downstream of broad eastern pacific wave. it appears as though
local area may be located on southern periphery of stronger deep
layer shear profiles, and possible late tonight/thursday
morning timing leads to low confidence in any isolated
strong/severe threat. likely pops have been maintained on
thursday, but still a good deal of uncertainty exists regarding
instability magnitudes during the day thursday depending on
evolution of upstream convection late wed night/thu am.

much of the long term period will favor a wavering baroclinic zone
with periodic chances of showers and storms as the potential exists
for several progressive waves to affect area in west-northwest upper
flow into next weekend. predictability is on the low side with
12- hour pops in this pattern, but medium range guidance does
seem to suggest that longwave ridging may amplify across central
conus for early next week with a transition back to above
normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 721 pm edt sun aug 2 2026

clouds will continue to slowly diminish through the evening as
upper low pulls away and dry air advects into the area. some
patchy fog/br potential late tonight, particularly for kfwa but
moisture profiles don`t support a widespread/dense fog threat.
winds remain light through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through monday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through monday morning for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
484
fxus63 kdtx 030353
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1153 pm edt sun aug 2 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather returns monday through tuesday with cool nights (50s)
and warm days (80s).

- the next chance of showers and possible thunderstorms arrives late
wednesday, with better coverage expected on thursday.

- mainly dry weather is expected for friday and saturday.

&&

.aviation...

dry and stable conditions prevail this taf period as high pressure
builds into the region. this will maintain clear skies, with modest
winds from a northerly trajectory.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through monday night.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 pm edt sun aug 2 2026

discussion...

all hydro related headlines have been dropped as main low and
deformation has exited east. a few locations along the western lake
erie shoreline saw rainfall in excess of 2 inches, fortunately
thunderstorms remained offshore. the upper level wave and mid level
cold pool (-12 to -13 c at 500 mb) tracking through northern lake
huron is also triggering limited shower activity which will have to
be accounted for. an isolated thunderstorm remains possible as well
with the decent surface based capes noted in spc mesoscale analysis
(especially western lower michigan). activity should quickly
dissipate toward sunset.

a pleasantly warm and dry start to the workweek is expected as an
upper-level ridge builds east, with the axis arriving tuesday
morning over the central great lakes.

a notable shortwave/upper-level wave currently tracking through
washington will move through northern ontario and into james bay.
thus, limited height falls are expected over southern lower michigan
for the midweek period. a surface cold front will be positioned
near/just northwest of the cwa a and will service as a focus for
convection. the timing of this frontal passage and the
activation/response of showers and possible thunderstorms vary
amongst medium-range models. thursday appears to be the favored day
for best coverage of activity. euro ensemble suggests 24-hour
probability of a tenth of an inch or more of qpf is 60+ percent,
centered in the 06z thursday to 06z friday timeframe.

a broad/loosely defined upper-level trough axis will be in place on
friday, persisting into saturday. however, troughing looks to be
weak, with pseudo-zonal upper-level flow established over the
northern conus over the weekend. with strong high pressure in place
over the central appalachians extending into southeast michigan, we
expect mainly dry conditions on friday and saturday.

marine...

modest northeast flow persists across the central great lakes
through the evening and early overnight hours until a low pressure
system exits the ohio valley into appalachia. the strongest flow
will channel across saginaw bay with elevated winds and waves
reaching small craft advisory criteria first, then conditions expand
to the rest of the lake huron nearshores. the chance for additional
showers and thunderstorms wanes this evening as the main axis of
showers clears east. high pressure influence then builds into the
region overnight and into monday offering drier weather and weaker
winds. light flow flips southerly on tuesday as the center of high
pressure slides across lake erie. a slow moving frontal boundary
will drift in from the west mid-week leading to future opportunities
for showers and thunderstorms. no significant pressure gradient
constriction is forecast, therefore headline-free conditions should
persist through the end of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.