Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
949
fxus61 kcle 091006
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
606 am edt sat may 9 2026

.what has changed...
a low end potential for severe weather remains for much of the
area today. the best window for strong to severe thunderstorms
is 3 to 10 pm today. sunday night is trending a bit warmer,
likely limiting frost potential, but monday night is trending
cooler and widespread frost/freeze conditions are becoming more
likely.

&&

.key messages...
1) an initial round of rain will exit east this morning. another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. storms could reach strong to severe limits.

2) dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected
early next week with frost/freeze chances increasing for monday
night.

3) another system will enter for the middle of next week,
bringing additional rain chances to the region. some storms and
moderate rainfall could be possible on tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
shower activity will continue across the southeastern half of
the forecast area this morning, bringing another 0.10-0.30" of
rain from mansfield to meadville and southeast. behind this
rain, there should be a dry window for much of the area through
the early afternoon hours. this will allow for the atmosphere to
recover well in the warm sector with temperatures returning into
the 60s and even lower 70s for some, mainly where the sun can
find its way through the clouds for a couple of hours. there
should also be some decent mixing in the warm sector as well
with southwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph. this improved air
mass will be present later today ahead of a cold front that will
approach the region from the northwest. a new round of
convective activity should develop well ahead of the front by
mid-afternoon, as a stronger shortwave moves through the broader
trough aloft. this activity will tap into a marginally unstable
air mass and allow for widespread showers and some thunderstorms
to move across the region later today.

the main question is: could storms become organized and pose a
strong to severe weather risk today? the answer to that
question will fully rely on the atmosphere recovery this morning
and early afternoon. if temperatures trend warmer into the 70s,
suspect that there will be more storm activity and potential for
severe weather as mlcape values can get over 1000 j/kg. if
recovery is slower with more cloud cover across the region, then
temperatures may not reach 70 degrees and instability would be
less conducive for severe weather. outside of instability
factors, there will be good jet support aloft and broader shear
to sustain thunderstorms if they can get going this afternoon.
if storms do develop, the main threats would be damaging wind
gusts and large hail, especially with fairly low freezing levels
across the region. a marginal risk of severe weather from the
storm prediction center remains across the area for today and
continues to convey the conditional storm threat.

rain will continue across the area tonight into sunday with
support from the upper trough aloft and the main cold front
sweeping through the region. the loss of daytime heating should
allow for convection to switch to just rain tonight. qpf totals
could be up to a half inch of rainfall for this afternoon into
tonight with a low potential for more where rain persists.

key message 2...
cool high pressure will enter the region starting on sunday
afternoon and remain over the area through tuesday morning,
allowing for 36-48 hours of dry weather across the region. this
will also promote several periods of below normal temperatures.
clouds will remain across the region on sunday night with the
saturday system departing to the east. this may keep low
temperatures more in the lower 40s vs. mid-to-upper 30s and may
limit the overall frost threat across the area. high pressure
solidly across the area on monday night and should allow for a
clear, calm, and decoupling atmosphere and low temperatures in
the 30s should be anticipated. frost, if not freeze, headlines
are becoming more likely on monday night for a large portion of
the forecast area. high temperatures on monday will be in the
50s. highs on tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with high
pressure moving out and some return flow entering the region.

key message 3...
the pattern will return to unsettled for the middle of next
week with a low pressure moving through the great lakes region.
rain chances will be expected from tuesday night through
thursday with the system. the initial arrival of the system
during the night on tuesday should limit thunderstorm activity
but will continue some slight chances of thunder, mainly out
west. otherwise, just rain will be expected for wednesday and
thursday at this time. there could be some moderate rain on
tuesday night into wednesday morning and will need to watch for
trends with that part of the forecast for any future flood
concern. rain will be lighter later with the system.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
cyclonic w`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our
region through 12z/sun. at the surface, net troughing lingers
for the time being and a cold front should sweep generally
se`ward across northern oh and nw pa between ~22z/sat and
~05z/sun. behind the front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly
from the canadian prairies and vicinity through 12z/sun. ahead
of the cold front, our regional surface winds trend s`erly to
sw`erly around 5 to 15 knots and should gust up to 20 to 25
knots at times, especially late this morning through early
evening. the cold front passage will cause our regional surface
winds to veer to w`erly and be around 5 to 10 knots for several
hours. farther behind the surface front, surface winds should
become light and variable and then remain so through 12z/sun as
the mslp gradient weakens in response to the building surface
ridge.

scattered light to moderate rain showers associated with one of
the aforementioned disturbances aloft continue to exit
generally e`ward from our region through ~14z/sat. visibility
will vary between vfr and ifr in this rain. otherwise,
widespread ceilings are expected to range between about 5kft agl
and ifr through ~14z/sat. behind this morning`s rain, subtle
breaks in the low-level cloud cover, weak surface winds, and
sufficient low-level moisture should allow radiation mist with
visibility in the mvfr to ifr range to form through ~12z/sat.
the mist and low ceilings are then expected to give way to
widespread vfr by ~14z/sat, following the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer. scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface cold front
should impact our region between ~19z/sat and ~05z/sun as the
convection persists generally e`ward. these showers and storms
should be accompanied by brief mvfr to lifr and generate
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots. following
the surface cold front passage, vfr are expected and scattered
rain showers associated with the upper-reaches of the front
should exit generally e`ward between ~02z/sun and ~07z/sun.
widespread dry weather is then expected through 12z/sun.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected this tuesday afternoon through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
s`erly to sw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected on
lake erie through this afternoon as the axes of subtle troughs
advance e`ward across the lake. these winds may flirt with 20
knots at times this afternoon. during this evening through
tonight, a cold front should sweep se`ward across lake erie and
cause sw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer toward nw`erly.
however, these winds may flirt with 20 knots at times early
this evening. waves should trend 3 feet or less, but occasional
4 footers are possible this afternoon and evening.

behind the cold front, a ridge should affect lake erie as the
embedded high pressure center moves from the canadian prairies
toward atlantic waters near nc on sunday through tuesday. primarily
nw`erly to n`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on sunday through
monday should become variable in direction monday night through
tuesday. waves should trend 3 feet or less.

the ridge should exit e`ward tuesday night through wednesday as a
low wobbles ese`ward from the northwestern great lakes toward lake
ontario and weakens gradually. accordingly, a warm front should
sweep ne`ward across lake erie tuesday night through wednesday
morning and cause se`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer to
s`erly to sw`erly. a cold front should then sweep e`ward across lake
erie late wednesday morning through wednesday evening and cause
winds to veer to w`erly to nw`erly as wind speeds ease to around 10
to 20 knots. waves should primarily be 4 feet or less, but
occasional 5 to 6 footers are possible. forecast trends may
prompt the eventual issuance of a small craft advisory.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
872
fxus63 kiwx 091037
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
637 am edt sat may 9 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. marginally
severe storms are possible over northwest ohio.

- highs today around 70 to 75.

- seasonably cool and dry sunday and monday with highs around 60
to 65.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 331 am edt sat may 9 2026

the band of showers had drifted south out of the forecast area
and was south of portland and muncie at the time of this
writing. light fog was forming behind the clearing line over
much of northern indiana and surrounding areas where dew points
were still in the lower 50s. a low stratus deck was only 100 to
200 feet off the ground and has been lowering early this
morning. a few spots had visibilities at or close to 1/2 mile.
it is likely patchy dense fog will develop for a few hours
before the fog lifts with daytime heating later this morning.
instability will increase this afternoon with max capes reaching
around 1500 j/kg over northeast indiana into far northwest ohio
according to both cams and spectral models. current thinking is
max wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph with the stronger storms in these
east areas.

the cool air will settle over the region sunday and monday with
temperatures below normal. given the advance state of vegetation,
frost headlines are likely. the coldest air will be over far
southern lower michigan into adjacent areas of indiana and
northwest ohio early monday where 850 mb temperatures are
expected to fall to -4c per gfs. surface low temps should be in
the 33f to 39f range, especially north of highway 30.

otherwise, a potent shortwave will top the upstream ridge along
the west coast and race east. this system will bring showers and
scattered thunderstorms tuesday. given the moisture flux into
the area tuesday, storms with strong, gusty winds and small
hail are likely.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 635 am edt sat may 9 2026

an increase in south-southwest low level flow in vicinity of a
retreating low level thermal/moisture gradient has combined with
shallow near sfc moisture beneath low level inversion for
extensive ifr conditions this morning. expecting these ifr cigs
will improve fairly quickly this morning given shallow nature of
this higher near sfc rh and influence of low level warm
advection. otherwise today, attention turns to next stronger
vort lobe ejecting across the great lakes region. moisture
availability is somewhat limiting today without an extended
duration of strong moisture transport. northern indiana should
also be located on far southern periphery of stronger upper
level height falls associated with the great lakes short wave.
however, some modest instability in the 500-1200 j/kg range
should develop this afternoon which would support some isolated-
scattered convection, particularly in the 20z-00z timeframe at
kfwa. given some latitudinal disconnect in forcing/instability
and expected scattered coverage, will continue with prob30 tsra
mention at kfwa. some additional showers are possible late this
period as another wave ejects out of the rockies and could
interact with southward sagging frontal boundary. this potential
may maximize just south of kfwa and will let later forecasts
address this potential in more detail. otherwise today, deep
westerly flow and fairly deep mixing will promote peak afternoon
gusts into the 25 to 30 knot range. these gusts should sharply
diminish toward 23z as boundary layer decoupling occurs.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
735
fxus63 kdtx 091057
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 am edt sat may 9 2026

.key messages...

- warmer today with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon, roughly along and south of the i-69 corridor.

- below normal temperatures return sunday and likely persist
through mid-week.

&&

.aviation...

low pressure on a path from the upper midwest into the northern
great lakes is pulling mild air into lower mi this morning. this has
so far produced an area of stratus and fog expanding northward from
indiana on the west flank of departing high clouds. lifr ceiling and
ifr fog along the dtw corridor is reaching northward to ptk and
grazes just east of fnt while lifting into the lower mvfr range mid
to late morning. this establishes the warm sector ahead of the cold
front on schedule to move into the region this afternoon. the front
is preceded by a mid level cloud increase and light shower and then
a period of thunderstorms mid to late afternoon as the cold front
moves through the area. storms develop overhead from about fnt to
ptk and move through the dtw corridor after 18z until exiting
eastward with the front by 00z this evening. a post front clearing
trend looks solid for tonight as well mixed nw wind carries in dry
and cooler air. a weak ridge of surface high pressure settles in
toward sunrise sunday.

d21/dtw convection... a cold front is on schedule to pass across se
michigan this afternoon. there is increasing potential for a broken
cluster/line of thunderstorms to develop nearly overhead as
conditions destabilize. an isolated storm could reach severe
intensity mainly during the 17z to 21z time period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning, moderate this
afternoon, and low tonight.

* moderate for thunderstorms between 17z and 21z today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 am edt sat may 9 2026

discussion...

strong shortwave/500 mb height fall center to track through the
northern great lakes today. although the height falls struggle to
get much farther south than saginaw bay, the optimal timing of the
cold front/low level convergence during the afternoon hours should
be sufficient for numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
surface dew pts aoa 50 degrees already noted along/near the southern
border. with high temperature reaching around 70 degrees, sbcape
around 1000 j/kg seems likely. with steep mid level lapse rates (700-
500 mb) of 7 c/km and rather strong wind fields (45 knots at 850
mb), isolated severe storms are possible with both wind and hail.
just enough 0-1 km helicity/bulk shear to suggest a tornado is not
totally out of the question before unidirectional low level flow
takes over. far eastern areas, along a monroe-detroit-port huron
line stand the best chance for severe storms, with actually good
timing agreement amongst hires solutions (rrfs/arw/nam/hrrr) mainly
in the 1-5 pm window.

deep cyclonic flow then develops for the second half of the weekend
into early next week, with 850 mb temps progged to bottom out in the
-2 to -4 c range monday morning. min temps drop into the 30s sunday
night and monday night; however, there may be just enough wind to
help prevent widespread frost/freeze conditions.

the next strong shortwave and associated low pressure system looks
to be arriving on tuesday. warm front should be active, producing
showers as moisture advection is stellar. pw values start the day on
tuesday around 0.2 inches and surge to 1 inch by early evening.
showalter index stays positive through the day on tuesday, and just
approaches zero tuesday night, thus not looking for much in the way
of thunderstorm activity.

marine...

southwest winds quickly ramping up this morning as a cold front
tracks into the central great lakes region. wind gusts at or above
25 knots are expected near the shorelines this afternoon, along with
scattered strong thunderstorms. thus, small craft advisories have
been issued for most of the nearshore waters. the cold front will
pass through around 21-00z early this evening, allowing for winds to
shift to the northwest tonight, but under 25 knots over southern
lake huron and points south.

another weaker cold front may clip northern lake huron sunday,
otherwise a bit quieter as high pressure builds back in with
westerly or northwesterly flow persisting into early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lhz441>443.

small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.