Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
644 pm est mon dec 22 2025

.synopsis...
a warm front will lift across the area tonight, followed by a
cold front on tuesday. high pressure will return by tuesday
evening, but a series of disturbances will move across the area
late wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.near term /through tuesday night/...
a shortwave is pushing east across the area, resulting in a
swath of snow showers. the lower levels are quite dry at the
moment so most of it isn`t reaching the surface, however some
light snow showers will likely reach the surface later this
afternoon as moisture increases across ne oh/nw pa. snow
accumulations will not be impactful to the evening commute with
only trace amounts (if that) anticipated. a lull in
precipitation will occur this evening before a warm front
begins to lift northeast into the region tonight into tuesday
morning. isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front will result
in increasing pops tonight, primarily across ne oh and nw pa
where there will be more moisture to work with. anticipate a
burst of snow due to evaporational cooling before warm air
advection allows precip to mix with and transition to rain from
west to east late tonight and early tuesday morning. there`s
still some potential for a very brief period of light and patchy
freezing rain across interior nw pa (primarily eastern
erie/crawford counties) between roughly 09z and 12z tuesday
morning. a light glaze of ice is possible before temperatures
warm above freezing. confidence in impactful ice accumulations
is too low to warrant the issuance of a winter weather advisory;
the window for freezing rain is quite narrow and coverage may
be limited. will continue to monitor high res guidance and make
adjustments to the forecast as needed. worst case scenario, an
sps for icy conditions may be needed.

rain will taper off quickly during the day tuesday as the cold
front moves east across the area and high pressure quickly
builds in behind it. from there, dry weather will persist
through the end of the near term period.

temperatures will not follow a diurnal trend tonight thanks to
the arrival of the warm front, although minimum temps in the
upper 20s to low to mid 30s are expected before warm air
advection develops. expect highs in the 40s across most of the
area tuesday with lower 50s likely in southwestern zones.
tuesday night`s lows will fall into the upper 20s to around 30
degrees.

&&

.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
dry weather will continue through most of christmas eve as an
upper ridge and surface high maintain influence over the region.
precip chances return to the area wednesday night as a warm
front lifts northeast towards the local area and a shortwave
crests the ridge. ptype will largely be rain with this feature,
however temps may be just cold enough across interior nw pa for
some wet snow, a rain/snow mix, and/or possibly a brief period
of freezing rain. the warm front will slow over the region
through the end of the short term period with rain chances once
again increasing thursday night as the next shortwave ripples
across the local area. temperatures will be slightly cooler on
wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lower 40s, but
a gradual warming trend will start to occur on christmas day.
christmas day`s highs will be in the 40s with lower 50s possible
south of u.s. route 30.

&&

.long term /friday through monday/...
high rain chances will continue into friday as a surface low
and cold front move across the local area. there won`t be much
of an air mass change behind this system, although temperatures
for friday have trended cooler with this update. highs will
generally be in the 40s to low to mid 50s friday/saturday. the
next cold front will move across the region on sunday with the
weather pattern becoming a bit more seasonable towards the end
of the long term period. temperatures will moderate closer to
normal sunday night through monday and lake effect snow showers
may return by the end of the weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
deteriorating conditions are expected tonight with widespread
mvfr to ifr conditions persisting through tuesday. a warm front
will lift northeast across terminals tonight bringing areawide
rain showers. ceilings will diminish from west to east with
widespread ifr likely through late tuesday morning. mvfr to ifr
visibilites are also possible in heaviest rain. showers will
exit from west to east behind the warm front, but mvfr
conditions are likely to persist through the taf period.

south to southwest winds 8-12 knots are expected through the taf
period. occasional gusts to 20 knots are possible tuesday
afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain and low stratus tonight into
tomorrow. additional non-vfr conditions possible in periods of
rain wednesday night into friday.

&&

.marine...
calm conditions across lake erie will become a bit more unsettled as
a warm front lifts north tonight followed by a cold front on
tuesday. winds will shift from southwesterly tonight at 15-20 knots
to become west-northwesterly at 15-20 knots on tuesday. given very
marginal conditions, not expecting the need for a small craft
advisory, but will continue to monitor conditions. high pressure
returns wednesday before another low impacts the lake for the
christmas holiday. conditions should remain calm until the gradient
begins to increase thursday night and east winds ramp up to 15-20
knots. this low will be quick moving and calm conditions will return
with high pressure late friday into saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...15
near term...15
short term...15
long term...15
aviation...13
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
647 pm est mon dec 22 2025

.key messages...
- rain and drizzle developing tonight (20-40% chance).

- trending warmer in the days ahead with highs near 50 degrees
as early as wednesday and thursday.

- 60-80% chance of rain wednesday night and thursday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 pm est mon dec 22 2025

a weak upper-level impulse streaking across the upper great lakes
this morning failed to produce any precipitation across far southern
michigan; abundant dry air proving too much to overcome. a warm
front is noted across the tennessee valley and this will
gradually lift north as low-level flow become southwesterly
encountering a southern us ridge of high pressure. this warm
front will allow for low-level saturation to improve overnight.
paired with the departing right-entrance region at 500 mb, there
remains a chance for light rain and drizzle tonight. forecast
soundings depict a sufficiently mild profile to negate any
winter weather concerns. incoming high pressure ultimately ends
any wet weather as tuesday progresses but a low- level inversion
threatens to keep clouds locked in place until late afternoon.

a progressive upper-air pattern in the days to come presents
forecast temperature challenges but generally mild conditions and
periodic chances for rain. canadian high pressure centered over the
upper great lakes on wednesday and thursday had resulted in large
temperature discrepancies which are finally beginning to narrow.
return southerly flow on thursday as the high shifts east may
permit a few sites to reach the mid-50s south of us 24, but it
otherwise seems that highs near or just shy of 50 will be the
norm; good for a top-10 warmest christmas at fort wayne. there
is a chance of rain wednesday night as warm front attempts to
lift in.

the late-week and weekend forecast continues to feature a
chance of rain friday as an upper-level wave streaks through.
this is followed by a deeper low moving through ontario on
sunday, bringing the risk of rain changing to lake effect snow
and sharply cooler conditions.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 645 pm est mon dec 22 2025

a low level warm frontal feature will lift across northern
indiana overnight. broad low/mid level isentropic upglide will
accompany this warm front, with strongest isentropic upglide
expected roughly in the 04z-08z timeframe. low level moisture
is marginal in nature initially, but positive low level theta-e
advection over the next several hours and approach of small
scale vort max across western iowa could allow for a few showers
to develop across northeast indiana early overnight hours. have
continued trend of top-down saturation process this evening,
eventually leading to mvfr cigs below 2k feet overnight into
early tuesday. greater confidence in ifr conditions still
exists at kfwa which should be inline for best near sfc
northward moisture transport, but would suspect that a brief
period of ifr cigs is also possible at ksbn with onset of low
level caa tuesday morning. some patchy drizzle will be possible
late tonight into early tuesday due to shallow nature of
moisture profiles, but enough low level drying should occur by
late tuesday morning to end drizzle potential. did include a
brief mention of llws overnight tonight at kfwa which should be
in a more favorable proximity to a 30-40 knot westerly low level
jet for a time in the 06z-12z period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
631 pm est mon dec 22 2025

.key messages...

- there is a low chance for freezing drizzle tonight into tuesday morning
before temperatures climb above freezing by daybreak. only trace
amounts of ice will be possible.

- above normal temperatures through the mid and late week period.

- an area of low pressure is forecasted to track near the southern michigan
border late thursday night and friday. with temperatures near the
critical freezing mark, the potential exists for a wintry mix,
including rain, snow and freezing rain impacting the friday morning
commute.

&&

.aviation...

plume of higher low level moisture on pace to expand across the
region overnight. initial period of moistening will bring a brief
window for possible very light rain or drizzle development within a
lowering vfr cloud base. forecast will continue highlight a low
probability for this to occur as light freezing rain/drizzle as
temperatures potentially near the freezing mark. steady decline in
ceiling height thereafter, bringing a high liklihood of mvfr with
possible ifr in light fog and drizzle through tuesday morning. some
improvement in cloud base expected during the afternoon as drier air
enters in westerly flow, but with confidence in any possible
clearing still quite low and the quality of moisture still lingering
beneath the strong inversion base.

for dtw...ceilings remain forecast to progressively lower this
evening - with an eventual chance for liquid precipitation after
02z. the initial droplets may freeze on contact - since the surface
wet bulb temp will be a few degrees below freezing. as the dewpoints
rise after midnight, the freezing potential vanishes. ceilings will
continue to lower toward daybreak, with batches of drizzle and light
fog. gradual improvement in conditions tuesday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet after midnight tonight through
tuesday morning.

* low to moderate for a couple hour period late this evening for
light freezing rain.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 404 pm est mon dec 22 2025

discussion...

deep dry air in the lowest 8.0 kft agl has made light snow activity
intermittent and scattered in nature thus far today. models remain
consistent in a relatively dry period 21-03z this evening as a
fairly hearty wedge of dry air between 925-750mb lifts northward
through southeast michigan. this secondary drying of the low levels
and resultant lull in any precipitation or radar returns will then be
followed by the advection of a low-midevel tongue of moisture on the
nose/eastern periphery of low level jet axis. quite the complicated
and disjointed moisture evolution today because as the secondary
moist surge arrives this evening, plan view of moisture on
isentropic moisture shows moisture stripping out aloft. with
forecast soundings supporting saturation in the lowest 7.0-8.0 kft
agl well below the -10c isotherm, expecting most areas to observe
light precipitation in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle
overnight. the big question remains whether or not surface
temperatures will be at the freezing mark. current dewpoints in the
20s suggests that temperatures will have an opportunity to drop a
few degrees this evening below freezing before the drizzle activity
begins. conditional to this cooling and staving off any of the warm
air to the southwest, there is the potential for a period of light
freezing drizzle overnight. zonal orientation of the low level jet
axis should allow for temperatures and dewpoints to rebound fairly
quickly late, around daybreak. the models suggest the slowest
thermal rebound will be the northern thumb. impacts are expected to
be limited to pockets or isolated slippery spots on roadways.

the north american ensemble forecast system supports a record
breaking ridge across the central united states that will expand
into the doorstep of the central great lakes for the middle of the
week. an impressive feature with 582 dam heights through kansas and
into the tennessee river valley, (at the maximum per the cfsr
datasets). this all supports a warm/balmy period through christmas
day.

for tuesday, any dry dewpoint front/values will be slow to
release through the cwa as there is a lack of any definitive cold
front. warm daytime highs in the lower to middle 40s with fairly low
mixing depths tempering west winds in the 15 to 25 mph range. given
the slow exit of the surface moisture, may need to watch for some
lighter fog activity from the terrain southward to the ohio border
tuesday evening. low confidence in anything impactful. a stronger
absolute vorticity maximum tracking north of lake huron will support
a flattening of the thermal field and allow some cooler air to
backdoor into michigan for wednesday. dry air and subsidence in the
2.0 to 8.0 kft agl layer will support precipitation free conditions.
highs wednesday will be some 5 to 10 degrees cooler, ranging in the
middle to upper 30s. bulk of the forecast data from this vantage
point suggests nothing more than an inconsequential moisture
increase late wednesday night as an entrance region to a jet streak
and very ragged shortwave energy passes through the ohio valley.
a lot of question how far northward up the frontal slope moisture
will be able to overrun. could be looking at another period of some
light mist/fine drizzle with surface temperatures at or just above
freezing. current offered guidance on pops seems a little high, but
did leave the late day3 values as is. 850mb temperatures of +3 to +6
c will support high temperatures christmas day in the upper 30s to
lower 40s some 5 degrees below normal.

confidence is increasing for widespread precipitation across
southeast michigan late thursday night and friday as yet another warm
advection surge pushes through the great lakes. well defined jet
exit region dynamics off of a coherent, well organized jet streak is
expected to bring fresh dynamical support for ascent to the state.
wpc cluster analysis does suggest a higher predictability solution
at day 3 with relatively low variance amongst the 24 hour averaged
500 heights. both eofs suggest no timing or magnitude anomalies in
vicinity of southeast michigan. latest control run of ecmwf has
shown up in agreement with the earlier gfs solutions depicting
overrunning precipitation for southeast michigan late thursday and
friday. the big note here is the latest control run of the ecmwf has
a precipitation footprint from kentucky northward through lake
superior. will need some data inside of the hires window but depths
of both the near surface cold layer and the warm air aloft will
matter heavily in microphysics and the precipitation type forecast.
plenty of algorithms support freezing rain with qpf amounts of 0.25
to 0.30 inch. friday morning is a period to monitor.

marine...

wind direction to back from southwest to southeast tonight in
response to the passage of a low pressure system which will traverse
west to east across southern ontario. this will bring some localized
higher gust potential around 25 knots through southern lake huron
given the favorable fetch. passage of the low into quebec will push
a warm front across the great lakes, bringing widespread but light
rain/snow mix.

continued passage of the low will then bring a glancing area of cold
air across northern lake huron tomorrow evening into early wednesday
morning. this will boost shallow over lake instability and improve
mixing depths, bringing increasing confidence to see gust to gales
within this time frame. a gale watch has been issued for north and
north-central lake huron. additionally, wave heights will build over
the outer saginaw bay through the tip of the thumb, where small
craft advisories will likely be needed. high pressure then quickly
builds in through the day wednesday, rapidly diminishing stronger
gust potential through the later morning hours.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from tuesday afternoon through tuesday evening for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.