Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
323
fxus61 kcle 160449
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1149 pm est thu jan 15 2026

.what has changed...
the ongoing and generally over-performing lake effect snow event
will wind down from west to east through this evening.
confidence is increasing in impactful lake effect snow off of
lake erie early next week with a west to southwest wind. this
will focus the heaviest snow across western ny, with some
potential for impactful snow to sink into extreme northeast oh
and northwest pa for a time monday into early tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) heavy lake effect snow will gradually wind down from west to
east through the first half of tonight.

2) low pressure tracking through the northern great lakes will
bring periodic snow shower chances friday into saturday. a
brief spell of slightly milder temperatures is expected friday
into early saturday before colder air returns.

3) a prolonged cold spell with high temperatures in the 10s and
low temperatures in the single digits to below 0 is expected
saturday night through tuesday night, with the coldest overall
weather expected monday into tuesday. wind chills will dip below
0, and cold weather advisories may eventually be needed.

4) an arctic cold front may bring snow showers to the area
monday. impactful lake effect snow is likely off of lake erie
late this weekend into early next week, especially into western
ny. the greatest potential for impacts across northwest pa and
far northeast oh appears to be monday into early tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as of early this afternoon, moderate to heavy (and very fluffy)
lake effect snow continues from northeastern erie county (oh)/
lorain county/medina county points east-northeast across the
primary and secondary snowbelts of northeast oh and northwest
pa. activity has been intense this morning and early afternoon
with snow rates up to 1" per hour and visibility occasionally
below 1/4 of a mile observed in the more intense/organized
bands. intensity will remain fairly impressive before activity
shuts off fairly quickly from west to east through this evening.
in the cleveland area, fairly quick improvement is expected
starting around 4 pm. synoptic moisture/lift quickly departing
as ridging builds from the west gives us confidence in the lake
effect losing significant intensity pretty quickly through this
evening, with lingering activity through the night focusing
across extreme northeast oh and northwest pa as winds back to a
more southwesterly direction by early friday.

additional accumulations from 2 pm and on of 1 to locally 3" are
possible where bands persist across northeast oh, with 2 to
locally 6" more possible across northwest pa. across the board,
the heaviest additional amounts will be in the higher terrain
though decent accumulations have been occurring near the lake
beneath bands. will be expiring/dropping les headlines from west
to east as able through this evening and into tonight. lows
tonight will generally be in the 10s and will occur early, with
temperatures holding steady or rising slightly overnight as
clouds ahead of the next system and southwest winds spread in.
wind chills will remain in the single digits to slightly below
0 this afternoon, warming slightly (but largely staying in the
single digits) tonight.

key message 2...
a band of low to mid-level isentropic lift ahead of a flat
shortwave will move east-northeast across the forecast area on
friday, bringing potential for a period of light snow or snow
showers. the lift will be fairly modest with surface
temperatures warming into an upper 20s to mid 30s range, with
the greatest potential for snow expected to be across the
northern half of the area. any snow during the day friday should
be fairly low impact with accumulations generally 1" or less.
southerly winds will be a bit brisk on friday with gusts up to
30 mph possible during the afternoon.

potential for scattered snow showers continues friday night as
an initial weak cold front crosses the area. lows friday night
will not dip much, only into a mid 20s to near 30 range.

a stronger cold front crosses west to east very late friday
night into saturday, bringing another potential for at least
some scattered snow showers. steepening low-level lapse rates
and weak instability ahead of the front may support heftier snow
shower or squall potential on saturday, especially across the
eastern half of the area. while overall accumulations are
expected to remain light, any heavier snow showers or squalls
could bring a brief hazard to travel. early highs on saturday
are expected to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s (warmest
east), with temperatures beginning to fall behind the cold front
through the afternoon. a push of wind gusts up to 30 mph is
possible behind the front on saturday.

key message 3...
the main story sunday through tuesday for most of the area will
be the cold. saturday`s cold front will usher in an initial
colder airmass, with lows saturday night falling into the upper
single digits/lower 10s with wind chills dipping to 0 to -10f.
highs on sunday will struggle to get above 20, with similar lows
sunday night in the upper single digits/lower 10s with wind
chills likely dipping below 0.

a re-enforcing arctic front will cross late sunday night or
monday morning, ushering in the coldest air of the winter so
far. highs on monday will be in the 10s, with some potential for
temperatures to fall through the single digits through the
afternoon depending on the timing of the front. gustier winds to
over 30 mph are likely behind the front on monday. lows monday
night will be on either side of 0, with increasing confidence in
interior locales dipping below 0. highs on tuesday will
definitely stay well down in the 10s, and it`s possible some
areas stay in the single digits, particularly across the higher
elevations of northwest pa. one more very cold night tuesday
night, into the single digits and perhaps locally below 0,
before a moderating trend begins on wednesday. a prolonged
period of sub-zero wind chills is expected monday through early
wednesday. the coldest wind chills are likely late monday
through early tuesday, likely bottoming out at -10 to -20f
across the area. that window appear to be the most likely time
period for cold weather advisories early next week.

key message 4...
the arctic cold front that is expected to cross late sunday
night into monday will likely be accompanied by at least some
scattered snow showers. while this doesn`t look like much snow
for most of the area, the potential for more intense snow
showers or squalls isn`t always well-advertised well in advance
with arctic fronts and will need to be monitored. otherwise, the
main concern is a window of impactful lake effect snow off of
lake erie. there may be some lake effect saturday night into
sunday, though southwest flow should direct that into ny.
locally, the main concern for lake effect will likely be behind
the arctic front monday into early tuesday when winds briefly go
more westerly. given the very cold airmass and what will likely
still be a partially unfrozen lake, the potential for
substantial accumulations exists where the lake effect sets up.
this looks like a brief window with winds turning more
southwesterly through the day tuesday, pushing activity back
towards ny and out of our area. those in far northeast oh and
northwest pa should monitor the forecast due to the potential
for a brief window of impactful lake effect early next week.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
terminals across the region have become mostly vfr with
ceilings around 030-035 with a few pockets of mvfr ceilings as a
cloud deck moves through. conditions will become widespread mvfr
by 13-16z as another system moves into the region bringing
another round of snow showers. ceilings and visibilities will
drop as a result. there could be some pockets of ifr/lifr
conditions in the stronger snow showers, but generally won`t be
prolonged. visibilities will improve around 21-01z this evening
as the snow showers taper off from west to east. ceilings will
remain mainly mvfr through the end of the taf period.

winds have begun to shift to be out of the west to southwest at
5-10 knots all will back to be out of the south by around 12z.
around that timeframe, winds will start to gust to 20-25 knots
and will continue through much of the taf period until after
00z tonight.

outlook...non-vfr likely in snow showers through saturday. non-vfr
within lake effect snow showers likely across northeastern ohio
and northwestern pennsylvania sunday night through monday.

&&

.marine...
active period with multiple systems moving across the great
lakes region will provide a prolonged window of hazardous marine
conditions on lake erie. northwest winds 15-20 knots this
afternoon will become southwesterly this evening. southerly to
southwesterly winds increase to 20-25 knots again friday
morning/afternoon. given the offshore component, expect for
highest wave heights to occur across the open waters. small
craft advisories remain in effect from vermilion east to ripley
ny through at least saturday evening. anticipate for advisories
to be extended in time and area saturday night into early next
week as hazardous conditions continue.

extended the freezing spray warning through this evening as elevated
winds and cold air remain across lake erie. warmer temperatures move
over the lake tonight through saturday. another cold airmass moves
over the lake on sunday. cold air temperatures in addition to
elevated wind speeds will likely lead to another window of heavy
freezing spray and additional headlines early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est saturday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...23
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
114
fxus63 kiwx 160527
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1227 am est fri jan 16 2026

.key messages...
- the next system will bring light snow accumulations of around
an inch late tonight, with an additional inch of snow possible
on friday. slightly higher amounts of 2 to 3 inches possible
during this period north of the toll road across far northern
indiana and southern lower michigan.

- after near normal highs on friday in the low to mid 30s, a
trend to much colder conditions is in store for the weekend
into early next week with sub-zero wind chills at times. the
coldest conditions are expected from sunday night through
tuesday.

- additional chances of lake effect snow showers for the weekend
into early next weekend, especially across southern lower
michigan.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 325 pm est thu jan 15 2026

lake effect showers have become more cellular in nature over
the last several hours and should continue to diminish through
early evening as inversion heights lower in response to
departure of cold core upper low. another upper level wave
digging across the dakotas this afternoon will slide southeast
across minnesota later this evening and will induce a broad area
of weak isentropic upglide across the ohio valley and southern
great lakes tonight. given drying nature to low/mid level
airmass initially this evening, some top-down saturation
processes will need to occur before light snow is realized, but
overall little change in forecast thinking in better chances of
additional light snow late tonight into friday morning.

while warm advection wanes later friday morning, lagging better
mid/upper level synoptic support with the dakotas wave should
provide some additional light snow late friday morning into early
afternoon with an additional inch of accumulation. some lake
enhancement is possible across sw lower michigan as winds become
west-southwest. some increase in southwest winds is also expected on
thursday with some gusts to 20 to 25 mph. these winds could lead
some blowing and drifting snow, particularly for areas which have
received the recent heavy lake effect snow. this initial upper wave
should depart early friday afternoon, with main question for
remainder of the day on any convective-type snow showers
redeveloping. some differential temperature advection could induce
some weak surface-based instability for an isolated-scattered
snow shower potential during the later afternoon hours.
confidence in coverage is low given local area should be
positioned between departing short wave and upstream upper low.

a renewed push of low level cold advection will follow for friday
night as this upper level low pushes across the mid ms valley. a
more dynamic upper level short wave is still expected to dig across
southern mo/ky friday night, with best low level level moisture more
suppressed south of the local area by this time. strong low level
cold advection across the local area may be accompanied by some
additional scattered snow showers. the current expectation is that
these snow showers will not exhibit much organization given
southward displacement of stronger forcing/moisture, and the fact
that low/mid level wind fields are only weakly frontogenetic in
nature. some light additional snow accumulations are possible (less
than an inch) friday night, and mainly downwind of lake michigan
due to lake enhancement. the advection of this much colder airmass
should result in wind chills dropping to the single digits above
zero saturday morning.

overall, not much change in forecast thinking for the remainder of
the period. a large negative upper height anomaly will persist
across the great lakes through the weekend, with additional upstream
short waves likely taking a favorable track into the local area due
to positioning of eastern pacific longwave ridging. this pattern
will provide periodic chances of additional snow showers, and
reinforcing shots of cold air advection. conditions may nudge up
against wind chill advisory levels, particularly monday night into
tuesday morning which looks to be the coldest period of the long
term as a strong low level thermal trough drops into the region.
medium range guidance does hint at another clipper-type system
for the middle of next week, followed by a tendency to large
scale flow deamplification that would provide a slow moderating
trend toward end of this forecast valid period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1227 am est fri jan 16 2026

a clipper system will bring two rounds of light snow to the
terminals later today. the first will be with the initial
theta-e surge roughly 08-11z and then the main shortwave/cold
front during the early afternoon. the first round is much weaker
and expect only brief mvfr conditions. the second round will be
stronger and some ifr conditions are likely, especially at ksbn.
the duration of snow will be relatively short though.
postfrontal caa leads to a period of fuel-alternate ceilings but
some minor improvement is expected by the late evening before
another shortwave arrives early sat morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
463
fxus63 kdtx 160455
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm est thu jan 15 2026

.key messages...

- drier tonight with wind chills in the single digits.

- milder friday with highs near the freezing mark, but an additional
1-3 inches of snowfall is expected by friday evening; isolated 4
inch totals are possible along portions of the higher terrain and
tri-cities areas.

- becoming colder saturday with some lake effect snow showers.

- next round of arctic air settles in sunday through tuesday with
sub-zero wind chills and additional opportunities for snowfall.

&&

.aviation...

confluence aloft and anticyclonic vorticity advection resulted in
surface ridging this evening. increasing westerly wind trajectories
allowed lake michigan origin moisture and stratocumulus to break
away and push into the southern taf sites. there has been varying
coverage of the overcast. the next low pressure system will impact
southeast michigan friday. lead wing of warm advection/isentropic
ascent will bring a chance for saturation and light snow after 11z
monday. latest nwp trend this evening has been for much drier
conditions with this lead ascent. did roll back visibility
restrictions to 6sm for the daybreak activity. timed out the peak of
the more impactful snowfall rates between 16-22z with a 3 hour tempo
centered between 17-20z. did include lifr visibility restrictions
this taf issuance. post system westerly flow appears to setup after
00z this evening with a greater chance for some lake effect snow
showers to impact kmbs and kfnt. included a prob30 group for that
activity.

for dtw... light snow or flurries to begin after 11z and continue
into the afternoon hours. heaviest snowfall rates is expected
between 17-20z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less the remainder of tonight,
then high friday morning.

* high for precipitation type of snow friday.

* medium confidence in visibility restrictions to 1/2sm in falling
snow friday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 pm est thu jan 15 2026

discussion...

a short wavelength ridge axis continues across the great lakes
region this evening ensuring increased stability and clearer skies.
lower column winds gradually back toward the wsw tonight which
eventually ushers in a milder airmass and renewed cloud cover.
still, it will remain chilly overnight with wind chill values
minimizing in the single digits, although gradient wind speeds will
also decline.

the next phase of an active synoptic pattern features a pv anomaly
moving across the dakotas and upper midwest tonight into friday. the
associated upper level trough steers an occluded 993 mb surface low
southeastward across ontario and the northern great lakes. this
provides the basis for additional snowfall across southeast michigan
on friday upon arrival of the associated thetae plume and isentropic
ascent. 12z model suite shows fairly high agreement regarding qpf
and is reflected in the nbm 25th to 75th percentile, which
predominantly resides within the 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. lowest qpf
should occur south of i-94 compared to the highest being more likely
over the terrain areas and tri-cities. slrs are generally expected
to decrease into the afternoon hours, approaching 15:1. this unfolds
as isothermal cloud bearing layer below 8 kft moderates to around
minus 10c (out of the dgz). the bulk of snowfall totals should range
between 1 and 3 inches by friday evening, but locally higher amounts
to around 4 inches are possible. given the cold start, most surfaces
should accumulate with the initial flakes, beginning between 10z and
13z, from the west which could impact the morning commute. options
increase for roadway treatments as temperatures rise during the
afternoon (into the low 30s), therefore the impact from continued
light snowfall could be mitigated along some travel corridors in
time for the evening commute. most snowfall should conclude between
00z and 03z saturday as the mid level dry slot works in. based on
the aforementioned details, decided to forego a marginal winter
weather advisory friday, but any upward trend in qpf could warrant
an 11th hour issuance.

some additional snowfall (lake effect) could develop friday night as
sub 850 mb flow veers from ssw to wsw, aiding in a lake moisture
release as the next arctic front pushes in. this favors higher pops
for locations west of us-23 and further east through central third
of the cwa given flow-parallel band orientation.

the arctic airmass becomes fully entrenched saturday leading to a
relatively muted diurnal curve as temperatures hold in the 20s most
of the day. low confidence in snowfall amounts given the lake effect
nature and the vortmax holding over the up. latest nwp trends are
lower for the forecast area, less than a half inch for most.

thermal troughing continues sunday through tuesday. the next clipper
races in sunday night offering a brief period of snow accumulation,
(between a half to one inch), then even colder air moves in within
another arctic boundary. this sends 850 mb temperatures crashing to
minus 25c and colder. sub-zero wind chills are expected each
morning, with negative double digits likely monday and tuesday. this
may require an eventual cold weather advisory. several additional
opportunities for snowfall exist given the cold airmass and
potential lake activation, although lake ice growth should
accelerate during this period.

marine...

two main low pressure systems affect the great lakes late in the
week and this weekend. the first moves in from central canada
tonight and friday and is set to bring a pattern of snow across the
region. increasing south wind ahead of the system helps displace
arctic air while still remaining cold enough for snow friday and
friday night. wind speed remains below gales as the center of low
pressure moves slowly across upper michigan and northern lake huron
through saturday. this is followed by a brief period of high
pressure sunday and then the next low sunday night into monday. this
system brings a strong surge of arctic air, and the next potential
round of gales, that dominate conditions across lake huron and lower
michigan through early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.