Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
302 pm est fri nov 13 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track with no major changes.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect showers continue this evening through sunday with
rain and rain/snow mix expected. light snow accumulations are
possible across ne oh and nw pa tonight.

2) high pressure builds in early next week with drier, seasonable
weather expected through the majority of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level troughing continues across much of the eastern conus and
north into eastern canada and will slowly deepen off to the east
throughout the weekend. meanwhile, shortwave features are expected
to move north to south along the western periphery of the trough
bringing reinforcing upper level support and colder air into the
region. 850mb and 500mb temperatures have bottomed out at around -6c
and -25 to -30c, respectively, this morning and will be steady
through the overnight before gradually warming throughout the day
saturday.

currently, flow is out of the north across the region allowing for a
lake effect band to set up from erie co, oh south trough knox co.
generally, this band has been primarily rain with some rain/snow
showers mixed in. given the flow, this band has been able to tap
into the moisture from lake huron, and to a lesser extent, lake st.
clair. flow will begin to shift to be out of the north to northwest
this evening into saturday and as a result, the band will shift to
the east towards the cleveland metro area. there will be a
reinforcing vort max moving south as the flow does shift that will
help in giving the band more strength. temperatures will also drop
to the coldest expected this weekend with lows in the upper 20s to
low 30s and the lake shore staying in the mid to upper 30s. with the
areas near the shore being warmer, and any precipitation that falls
is expected to stay as rain through the overnight hours. further
south away from the lake shore where the temperatures are colder and
the elevation rises, rain will transition over to a rain/snow mix
overnight. there will be periods of only snow, but expect it to be
mainly a mix. light accumulations are possible as well, though with
the ground being fairly warm, it will limit the overall totals.
there may be some areas across northeastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania that could see around an inch or two
of accumulation by tomorrow morning but expect those
occurrences to be isolated.

throughout the day saturday, flow will continue to shift to be more
northwesterly and veer to be more west of north further up in the
column. this will create a more multi-banded set up impacting
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania throughout the day.
there will still be some support from the lake huron connection but
drier, low-level air will start to push in from the west as the
trough begins to push east and the ridge builds in from the
west. temperatures will rise into the mid 40s tomorrow as well,
so expect precipitation to fall mainly as rain after the morning
hours. a final, vort max will move south through the region
late saturday night into sunday morning that will reinvigorate
the lake effect band with additional moisture through sunday
morning. with temperatures warming, and staying above freezing
for much of the region, expecting this precipitation to stay as
rain overnight. there will be some exceptions as the higher
elevations of northwest pennsylvania could see some rain/snow
mix, but with little to no accumulation.

lingering lake effect rain showers are possible across northeastern
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania throughout sunday and into early
monday morning as there will be some low level moisture across that
area. elsewhere, should begin to see the lake effect cloud cover
begin to dissipate sunday night through monday as the 925mb and
850mb ridges build east across the region. dry weather is
expected across the region after monday morning with high
pressure building in.

key message 2...
the upper level trough will exit to the east sunday night into
monday as an upper level ridge builds in across the northern great
plains into the great lakes regions. this will build eastward
through the early part of next week as a more amplified ridge
builds across the rockies and progresses eastward. all that
being said, surface high pressure will build in from the
northwest into the ohio valley monday through the middle of the
week with dry, quiet weather expected. temperatures will start
off chilly to begin the week with high in the upper 40s to low
50s and progressively warm as the high builds east and the
region moves into southwesterly flow. by thursday, highs will be
more seasonable, if not a few degrees warmer, in the upper 50s
to low 60s. overnight lows will follow a similar pattern,
starting off in the mid to upper 20s and warm into the 30s by
mid week.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
mvfr dominant ceilings in counterclockwise northerly flow across
lake erie bringing off and on -shra/-shrasn to north central and
northeast ohio. chances persist into the overnight and will
carry tempo groups for precipitation given the scattered
nature. some ifr ceilings towards morning possible in the higher
elevation tafs like mfd. winds northerly gusting to 20kts
become northwesterly tonight into saturday around 10kts.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie will continue to be unsettled through
the weekend. north winds will shift to be more northwesterly by
early saturday morning increasing to 15-25 knots. generally, the
strongest winds will be from the islands east through conneaut, oh
and waves will build as a result to 3-5 feet tonight and 4-7 feet by
saturday evening. a small craft advisory has been issued for those
nearshore zones begin this evening at 7pm through sunday morning.
the nearshore zones to the east towards ripley, ny will reach small
craft criteria saturday morning and last through early sunday
morning. additionally, with the lake being warm still, there`s
enough instability for a chance of waterspouts in rain showers
through saturday. stronger winds may inhibit waterspout formation
saturday afternoon and evening. winds and waves will begin to
diminish sunday afternoon into monday with winds at 10-15 knots
staying northwesterly. waves will also diminish to 1-3 feet by
sunday evening as well. from monday through the middle of the week,
winds will shift to be out of the west to southwest at 10 knots with
waves 2 feet or less across the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
sunday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory from 10 am saturday to 4 am est sunday
for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...26
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
159 pm est fri nov 13 2026

.key messages...

- the band of lake effect rain and snow showers is expected to
shift eastward into northwest indiana and southwest lower
michigan late tonight into saturday morning. some localized
light snow accumulations of less than an inch are possible
inland and mainly across grassy areas.

- below normal temperatures continue today through the weekend
followed by slowly moderating temperatures into the mid and
upper 50s by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 131 pm est fri nov 13 2026

with a northerly flow continuing on the eastern periphery of
high amplitude ridging over the central conus and extending well
northward into central canada, a band of lake effect
precipitation continues to stream southward into northwestern in
and northeastern il. currently surface temperatures have warmed
enough to keep all precipitation in liquid form. tonight, a
slight shift in winds to more northwesterly around 4 to 5 am est
will allow the band to make a more easterly shift further into
northwestern in (northwestern portions of the cwa) and along
with the diurnal cooling will start to see snow showers mix in
especially further from lake michigan. minor accumulations
generally around a tenth to a trace of snowfall will be expected
on grassy areas. after 10 am est, diurnal warming will once
again switch precipitation over to mostly rain showers through
the remainder of saturday. some of the showers will make it
further inland by saturday afternoon but will see a gradual
decrease in coverage as winds weaken with eastward progression
of the ridging into the western portions of the area by saturday
night into sunday morning.

the high amplitude ridging will continue to slowly push
eastward into next week allowing for a return to dry weather
along with a gradual warming trend. high temperatures will
remain in the mid to upper 40s on saturday and sunday with
slight warming each day when monday will get back into the 50s
through midweek. by thursday and friday, highs will again push
back into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1236 pm est fri nov 13 2026

cyclonic, northwesterly flow continues this afternoon and
evening with winds sustained around 10 kts. lake effect rain
showers continue downwind of lake michigan in nw indiana,
mainly in lake and porter counties, but the band is expected to
shift eastward overnight into saturday morning. have added in
prevailing rain showers at ksbn starting at 12z saturday to
account for this. dry away from lake michigan with prevailing
high end mvfr to low end vfr ceilings through the taf forecast
period. lake effect showers will come to an end later saturday
with a gradual return to clearing skies.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
333 pm est fri nov 13 2026

.key messages...

- a mix of rain and snow showers will affect the eastern portions of
the thumb tonight. minor accumulations on grassy surfaces are
possible.

- mostly cloudy skies will prevail this weekend with seasonally cool
temperatures.

- dry and mild weather will dominate much of next week.

&&

.discussion...

long wave troughing across eastern n america will dominate the
forecast across the great lakes region through the weekend. water
vapor imagery shows a secondary mid level wave sliding south across
lake mi and ern wisconsin this afternoon. as this wave advances
south this evening, a more northerly flow will become established
across lower mi. this will advect a little drier low level air into
se mi, offering an opportunity for at least some partial clearing.
the latest rrfs and hrrr are strongly supportive in the development
of a dominate lake effect band from sturgeon point across the
northeastern thumb late this evening and continuing into at least
early sat morning, affecting locations primarily across e huron and
ne sanilac counties. modified model soundings for 850mb temps of -5
to -6c and lake temps around 10c indicate equilibrium levels of 7 to
9 kt feet within moist mid level air and enhanced boundary layer
convergence. while cold enough to contribute to good enhancement off
the lake, the airmass does not appear cold enough to sufficiently
cool the boundary layer enough to provide anything more than minor
snow accumulations on grassy surfaces within any heavier convective
elements. while hi res guidance suggests a narrow axis of precip in
the .4 to .8 inch range, thermal profiles suggest precip type being
mainly a rain/melting snow mix.

a broad low level cyclonic flow associated with the long wave
troughing will hold across lower mi through most of the weekend. a
backing of the low level flow toward the north-northwest on saturday
will drive the lake michigan moisture plume into se mi. model
soundings suggest the moisture becoming trapped under a deep low
level inversion, likely resulting in mostly cloudy skies into the
day sunday. the moisture depth will become more shallow and thus
offer little support for precip. the cloud cover will also limit the
diurnal temperature range through the weekend, with daytime highs in
the 40s and sat night lows in the 30s.

strong high pressure will expand into lower mi late sunday/sunday
night, supportive of clearing skies. this high will be associated
with a long wave ridge which will become established across the ern
us next week. this broad mid level subsidence will result in a
persistent low level anticylone across the ern us through much of the
week. this pattern will lead to dry and seasonally mild condition
across the forecast area monday through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.marine...

north to northwest flow remains in place which will support breezy
conditions along with lake effect rain through tomorrow. wind gusts
around 20 to 25 knots are expected, with some localized stronger
gusts to 30 knots possible across central and southern lake huron
where fetch is maximized. small craft advisories remain in effect
for the saginaw bay and lake huron shoreline through tomorrow for
both these winds and elevated wave heights. this will also be where
lake effect rain showers will develop, especially across the
southern basin. high pressure to then build in over the great lakes
starting on sunday. this will end lake effect precipitation across
lake huron by the afternoon decrease wind speeds through the day.
the influence of high pressure will bring an extended period of dry
weather through the midweek along with lighter winds.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1238 pm est fri nov 13 2026

aviation...

mostly mvfr cigs with very light rain and melting snow downwind of
lake huron across most of southeast michigan early this afternoon.
weak surface ridging building into southern lower michigan early
this evening is expected to support low level drying as winds shift
a touch more out of northwest, confining lake effect activity to the
thumb region tonight. thus, partial clearing and vfr ceilings are
expected this evening into tonight at all taf sites. prolonged low
level northwest flow should eventually result into borderline
mvfr/vfr stratus tomorrow morning, though exact timing remains
uncertain. once the low clouds return, they should remain locked in
through the day tomorrow.

for dtw...light rain showers with embedded melting snow this
afternoon will dissipate by early this evening as low levels dry out
and partial clearing takes place. it is possible a leftover vfr
ceiling 3000-5000 ft lingers this evening into tonight, but
confidence is low. low clouds will likely hold off until tomorrow
morning (between 11 and 15z) before returning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon, low this
evening and tonight, high tomorrow.

* medium for light rain/melting snow mix this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......am
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.