Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
715 pm est wed nov 26 2025

.synopsis...
a low pressure system departs towards quebec tonight, leaving
behind a surface trough that lingers through friday evening.
high pressure briefly builds in friday night through early
saturday afternoon before another low pressure system moves
northeastward across the region saturday night through sunday
night.

&&

.near term /through thursday night/...
a strong low pressure system will pull away from the area with a
surface trough lingering across the great lakes region. this
will result in areawide wind impacts through tonight, and lake
effect snow across the snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through at least late friday. see the details
below.

wind:

areawide winds are already gusting to 40-50 mph, with the strongest
winds currently to the north (northern counties bordering lake
erie) and to the west (closer to i-75 corridor). we should see
wind gusts strengthen this evening into tonight as 850mb winds
increase to 45-55 knots, with peak wind gusts between 02-09z
(early to the west, later towards the east). strongest winds
will be along the eastern lake erie lakeshore where it`s not
out of the question to see an isolated wind gust as high as 60
mph.

after tonight, winds will gradually weaken, though 40-50 mph
wind gusts will be remain possible along the lakeshore lorain
and east thursday into thursday night.

lake effect snow:

an airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures in the -10 to
-12 c range and deep moisture to 600-700mb will filter in behind
the departing low pressure system, contributing to moderate
lake induced instability and periods of heavy lake effect snow
across the snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
tonight through thursday night.

initially, this will begin as a single primary band over lake
erie as southwest flow keeps lake effect snow offshore and
pushing eastward into western new york wednesday evening.
eventually, steering flow becomes westerly very late wednesday
night into early thursday morning, pushing the band south and
inland through the day thursday. as it does so, there will
likely be several hours of heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inch per
hour across lake, geauga, ashtabula, erie, and northern
crawford counties before the situation evolves into a psuedo
multi-band setup sometime thursday afternoon into thursday
evening, which is when there is a better shot for impacts to
start reaching cuyahoga, southern geauga, and northern trumbull
counties. following a upper-level trough passage, we should see
flow become west-northwest thursday night into friday causing
snow bands to reach farther south into northern summit and
northern portage counties.

snow totals are expected to peak in the 12-20" range,
especially in northern geauga, inland erie county, and northern
crawford county where confidence is highest in snow bands
persisting. lower totals of 8-12" are expected in ashtabula,
southern lake, and eastern cuyahoga, and 4-8" along the
lakeshore and in northern summit, northern portage, and northern
trumbull. compared to the previous forecast, snow totals were
shifted southward a bit with less snow near the lakeshore, and a
bit more in the northern portions of summit, portage, and
trumbull.

strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow through
thursday night, which may worsen travel impacts. blowing and
drifting snow is expected to be at its worst thursday morning
when visibilities of 1/4sm or less and near-blizzard conditions
could at least briefly be possible, particularly near the
lakeshore.

headlines:

the main change to headlines today was to expand the winter
weather advisory to include portage, as snowfall totals in the
northern portion increased to 4-6". there is some potential that
trumbull may need to be upgraded to warning with a few models
showing 8" in the northern portion of the county. there is also
some potential that the winter weather advisory may need to be
expanded to include summit county with a few models showing 4-6"
in the far northern portion.

forecast uncertainty:

-very strong winds aloft, especially tonight and thursday, could
result in lower snow ratios than expected. currently we have
snow ratios between 10-15:1 but strong winds tend to reduce
snow ratios because they can break up dendrites.
-very strong winds aloft could also carry bands further inland
than we expect. this could result in lower totals along the
lakeshore than expected.
-there is uncertainty with how quickly the band over lake erie
tonight shifts southward during the day thursday. many models
tend to forecast this inland progression a bit too quick,
something the regional canadian tends to do a bit better with.
this results in greater uncertainty for the southern extent in
counties such as cuyahoga, summit, portage, and trumbull
counties.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
lake effect snow dissipates and shifts eastward friday night as
high pressure and upper-level ridge builds in. at this point,
additional snow of 1" or less is expected.

on saturday, a high pressure system will quickly push east across
the area ahead of a potent low pressure system. this low will
originate out of the southern great plains and lift northeast
across the central great lakes by sunday morning. precipitation
is expected to overspread the area starting late saturday
afternoon through sunday morning. initially, sub-freezing
surface temperatures will allow precipitation to primarily fall
as snow with the most likely outcome for about an inch or less
of snowfall areawide saturday afternoon through early sunday
morning, though there is a better chance for 2-3" towards the
toledo area. as temperatures warm to above freezing on sunday,
should be a clean transition from snow to rain, though there is
a very low chance (~10%) for freezing rain or sleet to briefly
mix in south of i-76 and east of i-71 sunday morning.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
rain may persist into sunday before transitioning to lake
effect snow sunday evening and persisting through monday
morning. limited snow accumulations are expected at this point
with maybe 1-2" of snow at best through monday morning across
parts of the snowbelt in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania.

a weak upper-level trough will swing through monday into tuesday
with a weak surface low over the lower mississippi valley
lifting towards the mid-atlantic and becoming a coastal low.
isentropic lift well north of the low may lead to light
precipitation across much of the area monday night into tuesday.
surface temperature would support mainly snow, though
precipitation chances are highly dependent on the track of this
weak low (farther north = higher probability of light snow).

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
light snow showers will continue to move through north central
and ne ohio/nw pa over the next few hours, mainly affecting
kcle, kcak, kyng, and keri with oscillating cigs and vis between
mvfr and vfr. some snow showers will also affect ktol the rest
of the evening coming off of lake michigan, with periodic mvfr
there too. otherwise, mainly vfr is expected tonight, with
attention turning to heavy lake-effect snow developing by
thursday morning. the bulk of this will only affect keri most
of the day thursday, where overall poor conditions are expected
late tonight through the day in frequent ifr or lower moderate
to heavy snow and blowing snow. the heaviest snow and most
persistent ifr or lower at keri is expected to begin between 07
and 10z and last through 12 to 14z as a primary band of heavy
snow over lake erie slowly sags inland. from late thursday
morning through the afternoon, conditions should improve to
mostly mvfr as the main band shifts inland, but intermittent
snow showers will continue with mvfr being most prevalent. kcle,
kcak, and kyng will likely be clipped by the lake-effect snow
toward the end of the taf period thursday evening, with kcle and
kyng having the best chance, so introduced some snow showers at
those sites late in the day. otherwise, conditions across all
ohio terminals thursday will fluctuate between vfr and mvfr with
occasional snow showers or flurries as the bulk of the snow
stays confined to the primary snowbelt of far ne ohio and nw pa.

very strong winds will continue tonight through thursday
afternoon, gradually diminishing in the late afternoon and
evening. wsw winds of 20-30 knots will gust to 40-45 knots
tonight, especially near the lakeshore. winds will turn w to wnw
thursday, gradually decreasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon,
but 30-40 knots gusts will continue at times.


outlook...strong winds with gusts 30-40 kts continue through
thursday night. non-vfr ceilings will continue through friday.
lake effect snow will allow for non-vfr visibility for most
terminals through friday am with the most significant impacts
expected at keri, kcle, and kyng. another system will enter the
great lakes region saturday night into sunday, bringing
potential for more non-vfr and strong winds.

&&

.marine...
hazardous marine conditions will continue on lake erie through
friday as west/southwest gales persist. nearshore/lakeshore
observations have already reported gales and winds will most likely
peak later this evening into tonight. sustained winds of 35 to 40
knots with gusts to 45 to 50 knots are expected through at least
early friday morning with periodic sustained winds as high as 45
knots likely in the open waters of the central and eastern basins
through late tonight. winds may diminish a bit in the western basin
thursday morning, however the gale warning remains in effect for the
western end of the lake through late thursday night. gale warnings
remain in effect from vermilion eastward through late friday
morning. the strong winds have resulted in low water levels in the
western basin of the lake. as of 3 pm est, the water level at toledo
was 26.8 inches below low water datum, which is more than 21 inches
below the critical mark for safe navigation. water levels will
likely continue to drop through this evening and a low water
advisory remains in effect through thursday.

small craft advisories will be needed after the gale warnings
end as winds gradually diminish through friday. west/northwest winds
will diminish below 30 knots by friday evening and below 20 knots by
early saturday morning. from there, winds will gradually shift to
the southwest after sunrise saturday and the southeast on saturday
evening. winds will increase as low pressure tracks across the great
lakes over the weekend and additional headlines will likely be
needed saturday night and especially sunday. northwest winds should
diminish by monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory until 4 am est thursday for ohz003-006>009-013-
014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
wind advisory until 1 am est friday for ohz010>012-089.
lake effect snow warning from 1 am thursday to 7 pm est friday
for ohz011>014-089.
winter weather advisory from 1 pm thursday to 7 pm est friday
for ohz022-023.
pa...wind advisory until 4 am est thursday for paz002-003.
wind advisory until 1 am est friday for paz001.
lake effect snow warning from 1 am thursday to 1 am est
saturday for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning until 10 am est friday for lez145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...saunders
near term...saunders
short term...saunders
long term...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
656 pm est wed nov 26 2025

.key messages...

- strong west winds relaxing through early this evening.

- blustery and cold on thanksgiving with gusts to 35 mph.

- lake effect snow expected through early friday, heaviest
across southwest michigan where highly variable snow
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches will be possible by thursday
night.

- a period of accumulating wet snow expected saturday afternoon
into saturday night, best chances (80%) north of us 24.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm est wed nov 26 2025

strong low pressure system over the northern great lakes will
occlude east into southwest quebec by thanksgiving day. tight low
level height gradient on its southern and eventually southwest flank
will keep strong westerly winds and brisk wind chills as the primary
weather story into tonight and thanksgiving day. gusts in the 40-50
mph range today will ease a bit into tonight and thursday (gusts to
35 mph) as the storm system begins to pull away. wind chills drop
into the teens to near 20 degrees otherwise.

good moisture flux within cold, cyclonic westerly flow will also
result in periods of lake effect snow through at least thursday
night, mainly along and north of the indiana toll road. expectations
are for better flake size and snowfall rates this evening as
synoptic scale moisture continues to pivot through the lower great
lakes. slight veering to cloud bearing winds is expected later
tonight through thursday night which could bring some minor accums
and travel impacts farther south into places like south bend,
elkhart, angola and coldwater. by this time, a turbulent cloud layer
and strong flow will trend to disrupt the snow growth process
shattering larger snowflakes and keeping snow ratios in check. this
likely limits snow accums, however smaller flakes and gusty winds
probably result in times of poor visibility and patchy blowing snow.
made no changes to headlines (retained ww.y in southwest mi), but
following shifts will need to monitor surrounding counties for a low
end ww.y or sps. les then winds down quickly on friday as cyclonic
flow breaks down and weak ridging briefly settles in

attention this weekend then turns to a potential period of
accumulating wet snow as strong moist/warm advection develops in
advance of the next upper trough digging into the central plains on
saturday, then making the turn east-northeast into the lower great
lakes by early sunday morning. warm advection under incoming mid
level dcva and upper divergence will drive this blossoming area of
precipitation from west to east saturday afternoon into saturday
night with most places beginning as snow. a surface low track west
or over the area would seem to favor a mix or changeover with
drizzle/rain saturday night into sunday morning, best chances along
and southeast of the us 24 corridor. latest gefs and ecs guidance
rather impressive with 80-90% of members having 3" or more of
snow accumulation (10:1 ratio) north of us 24. this along with
some aggressive solutions (see the more dynamic and juiced 12z
op ecmwf) brings increasing confidence in a headline level event
for at least portions of the area. however, this system is
still 3 days away and off the pacific northwest coast, so expect
adjustments to the finer details in the coming days.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 655 pm est wed nov 26 2025

the upper low continues slide northeast away from the area and
surface high pressure noses in from the southwest. this allows a
moderation of the lake effect snow to some extent from 00z to 15z
tonight into tomorrow morning. however, there`s a noticeable
surge southward of the vort and a re-moistening of the lowest
levels of the atmosphere to allow a secondary push of the lake
effect snow tomorrow afternoon. it appears the best moisten
returns just after 00z thu night, but a quick drying out of the
column ensues afterwards. this set up will allow for mvfr cigs
at sbn, but with prevailing vfr and times of mvfr at fwa through
tomorrow.

look for west winds to slacken below wind advisory criteria this
evening, but 20 to 30 gusts mph will continue through thu.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 7 am est friday for miz078-079-
177-277.
wind advisory until 10 pm est this evening for miz177-277.
marine...storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 1 am est friday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
720 pm est wed nov 26 2025

.key messages...

- a wind advisory is in effect until 4 am tomorrow morning.

- lake effect snow showers into this evening. highly variable
accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches expected by tomorrow
morning.

- wind chills drop into the teens thursday morning and into the 20s
by thursday afternoon.

- snow showers and gusty winds (30-40 mph) continue thanksgiving day.
another dusting to 2 inches will be possible, although the thumb
region will see locally higher amounts.

- winter system over the weekend brings potential for several inches
of snow accumulation.

&&

.aviation...

lake effect snow activity is underway for the evening with ceilings
settling into elevated mvfr stratocumulus coverage. radar trends
suggest mainly light activity at most terminals through the next
several hours. some areas of moderate snowfall could cause periods
of mvfr visibility restrictions. otherwise, expect coverage to
become more scattered later into the overnight hours which should
improve visibilities. winds hold from a wsw direction with both
sustained and gusts persisting through much of the night as the low-
levels remain well-mixed, generally into thursday morning. lake
effect snow showers continue into thursday, albeit with lower
coverage. preserved inherited tafs regarding a break thursday
morning with prob30s for the midday hours given low confidence in in
which banded structures intersect a taf site into the afternoon.
daytime gusts hold in the upper 20 to lower 30 knot range thursday,
trending westerly with borderline vfr/mvfr ceilings.

for dtw..light snow shower activity continues tonight with gusty wsw
winds. mvfr conditions expected with some improvement into thursday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight, and medium thursday.

* low for westerly crosswind threshold being met tonight, then
medium thursday afternoon.

* high for precipitation type as snow tonight and thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 354 pm est wed nov 26 2025

discussion...

gusty wsw winds are well underway this afternoon associated with the
strong low pressure system tracking across the straits this
afternoon. these winds are being supported by a 50-60 knots low
level jet sweeping around the low and directly over southeast
michigan. winds peak this afternoon and early evening with highest
wind potential from 5 pm to about 11 pm. occasional pop to 50 mph or
greater will be possible with the thumb shoreline being the favored
location. the cold advection will prevent much stabilization
tonight, though mixing heights do decrease. elevated winds gusting to
30-45 mph should hold through much of tonight. will keep the wind
advisory in effect into early tomorrow morning, though there will be
potential to end it early.

the other item of note today and tonight will be the transition to
predominately snow as surface temperatures continue to fall with
better saturation within the dgz. this will be coincident with strong
dynamics and the expected lake moisture flux off lake michigan (and
partly lake superior) as winds turn more westerly into this evening.
any accumulation through the remainder of this afternoon should hold
to around a half inch or less and stay confined to grassy/elevated
surfaces. better snow accumulation potential will develop later this
evening as surface temperatures eventually dip to near freezing and
eventually below while greater coverage and intensity of lake effect
snow showers also ramp up. snow squall parameter values will be on
the high this evening and tonight, though lower level instability is
not overly impressive. the potential for more localized more intense
lake effect snow bands and the elevated winds will bring concern for
variable driving conditions from any intense lake effect snow
showers that can develop. thinking has not changed much in terms of
snow accumulations through 7 am tomorrow morning with anywhere from
a dusting to 2 inches across southeast michigan. high end of these
amounts should be more localized and tied to the more intense lake
effect showers.

the stronger/larger scale dynamics begin to ease for thanksgiving as
the low lifts into quebec. however, the cold thermal trough with
high overlake delta ts and the persistent wnw wind will maintain the
lake effect regime. hi-res models continue to point towards a
transition to more focused lake effect bands. the most dominant band
appears to focused from traverse bay down into northern bay county
and the thumb. the 12z suite of guidance continues to point towards
a swatch of snow accumulations possibly up to 4 inches over the
course of thanksgiving day across the thumb. this would require both
maintenance and residence time of that lake effect extension into
the thumb through thanksgiving afternoon and evening. confidence
still a little too low to hoist a winter weather advisory at this
time, but still requires monitoring for potential advisory issuance.
remainder of southeast michigan, will again see anywhere between a
dusting to 2 inches of possible accumulation with expected
variability of higher totals based on where more dominant and
persistent bands set up. models point towards another more prominent
band focused along the i-94 corridor and points south given the wind
trajectory. winds will continue to be gusty tomorrow with gusts
mostly in the 30-40 mph range through the day, holding below advisory
criteria. mid range snow squall parameter values (4-7) across all of
southeast michigan tomorrow brings potential for continued variable
driving conditions under more intense snow bands with rapid
fluctuations in visibility and potential snow accumulating on
roadways. wind chills tomorrow morning will be down in the teens and
hold in the low-mid 20s during the afternoon.

early friday morning will begin to see more intense lake effect
bands weaken with perhaps some isolated snow showers still lingering
during parts of the day as nw winds persist in the backdrop of
rising heights. attention will then be on the system over the
weekend as troughing across the plains drives a surface low pressure
through the great lakes. ensemble support and latest long range
model trends show increasing potential for several inches of
snowfall that would warrant winter headlines in the coming days.
current timing starts saturday afternoon and continues into sunday
morning. even colder temperatures will follow this system with high
temperatures monday and tuesday down into the mid-upper 20s.

marine...

respectable low pressure system is currently tracking over the upper
peninsula at time of discussion as arctic air begins overspreading
the central great lakes following this morning`s cold front. peak
winds for most the area occur late this evening-tonight as a
secondary cold front sweeps through shifting winds to the west (and
eventually northwest by thursday morning as the low pushes into
northern ontario). positioning of the low center favors the
strongest gradient, and subsequent strongest winds, to set up over
the southern half of lake huron-including the saginaw bay, as well
as the southern great lakes. gusts over these waters likely reach 40-
45kts tonight. while gale warnings went into effect for the northern
lake huron waters this afternoon, wind gusts will be slower to
increase owing to closer proximity to the low center with 35kt gales
becoming likely late this evening following the secondary cold
front. strongest gusts, around 40kts, for this portion of the region
occur daytime thursday as the gradient begins to tighten on the
backedge of the departing low. lake effect snow showers already in
the process of developing at time of discussion persist through
thursday resulting in variable visibilities including potential
whiteout conditions over the lakes. northwesterly winds thursday
don`t begin to weaken until late day with entry level gales still
possible for much of thursday night. pressure gradient over the
central great lakes finally relaxes friday as the northern edge of
ohio valley high pressure briefly clips the area allowing winds to
dip below 30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory until 4 am est thursday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 7 am est friday for lhz361-362.

gale warning until 10 am est friday for lhz363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

low water advisory until midnight est tonight for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.