Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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694
fxus61 kcle 040838
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
338 am est thu dec 4 2025

.synopsis...
an arctic cold front will sweep through the area early this
morning. high pressure will build in later today into friday.
another cold front will through the area on sunday. high
pressure will build in late sunday into monday.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
the main weather story for the near term forecast now through
friday will be the quick shot of arctic air and the coldest
temperatures yet so far this winter season. as of 2 am, the
arctic front was just entering northwest ohio. ahead of the
front, there have been a few bands of light snow in the west-
southwest flow aloft from around the cleveland area up to around
erie pa this morning. we have already hit our 24 hour maximum
temperatures for today. the arctic front will slide through the
area later this morning with a wind shift from the northwest 15
to 25 mph and gusty. temperatures will mainly stay in the lower
to middle 20s today. wind chills will be in the teens to single
digits later today. there may be a bring burst of light snow as
the front pushes through later this morning. as the flow becomes
northwesterly later this morning, there may be a few scattered
lake effect snow showers or brief bands of les that tries to
develop this morning through the early afternoon. this brief
period of some lake effect will be mainly for the primary
snowbelt with light amounts possible of 1 or 2 inches. inland
erie county pa may see between 1 to 3 inches.

the center of the arctic airmass or high pressure will build in
over northern ohio this evening. skies will clear out and
overnight low temperatures will fall into the single digits by
early friday morning. winds will be lighter overnight but any
light breeze would cause wind chills to be near or slightly
below zero late tonight into friday morning. high pressure will
still be around on friday with partly cloudy skies and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
the overall weather pattern looks to remain cold and a little
active this weekend. a large upper level trough will remain over
the great lakes region into much of the eastern conus this
weekend. another cold front will be on the way late saturday
night into sunday. ahead of the cold front on saturday, there
will be a light southwest flow with temperatures moderating into
the lower and middle 30s saturday afternoon. a shortwave trough
will pinwheel around the base of the larger upper level trough
on sunday. another blast of colder air will arrive with a cold
frontal passage on sunday. there will be a chance of light
snow this weekend from saturday into sunday. there will be a
better shot of light snowfall on sunday into sunday night with
some scattered lake effect behind the cold front. some light
snowfall accumulations may be possible in the primary and
secondary snowbelt this weekend. sunday high temperatures will
stay below freezing in the upper 20s to lower 30s. sunday night
low temperatures will be back down in the teens and a few single
digits.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
high pressure will build in from the midwest into the upper ohio
valley on monday. there could be some lingering lake effect
snow showers early monday across the snowbelt. high temperatures
on monday will be very cold in the middle to upper 20s. wind
chills early monday will be in the single digits to teens.
temperatures will slowly moderate back into the 30s going into
the middle of next week. another clipper like system will move
through the great lakes region tuesday into wednesday with
another chance for light snow and a cold frontal passage by mid
week.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
light snow has spread across all terminals ahead of an arctic
cold front. this has dropped cigs and vis to mainly mvfr. the
back edge of the snow is about through ktol and kfdy, so expect
those sites to be completely dry within the next hour or two
other than some passing flurries. this will allow vfr to return
to ktol before sunrise and to kfdy by mid morning. farther east,
the snow will last a few hours longer this morning, and still
expect some bursts of moderate to briefly heavy snow with gusty
winds between now and about 11z. timing of this burst of snow,
or line of squalls, is still low confidence, but regional radar
loops show the band starting to organize over lake erie, so the
thinking is that the arctic front will catch this lake enhanced
band and push it southeastward over the next 4 to 6 hours,
leading to some brief ifr or lower at keri, kcle, kcak, kyng,
and kmfd. drier air will rapidly work in behind the front this
morning, with all terminals expected to be vfr by mid afternoon,
although some scattered lake-effect snow showers will linger
around keri until late afternoon.

sw winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times over the next few
hours, especially at kcle and keri. the winds will turn sharply
nw behind the arctic front by sunrise this morning, and nw winds
will decrease to 5-10 knots this afternoon, becoming light and
variable tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings friday night through
saturday.

&&

.marine...
marine conditions will gradually improve from west to east this
afternoon and evening as northwest winds subside to 10 knots or
less overnight with high pressure building across the region.
rough marine conditions are expected to return across the
eastern basin of lake erie on saturday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 25 knots. a brief quiet spell across the
lake is expected on sunday, before the next potential for small
craft conditions arrives late sunday into monday with north flow
of 15 to 20 knots. a stronger system may approach the region on
tuesday with southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez145>147.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez148-
149.

&&

$$

synopsis...77
near term...77
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...garuckas
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 040852
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
352 am est thu dec 4 2025

.key messages...

- patchy freezing drizzle to end before daybreak.

- lows near zero tonight with wind chills -5 to -15.

- light lake effect snow this weekend should total an inch or
less accumulation accompanied by few if any impacts.

- light snow is likely at times this upcoming week. the snow may
be mixed with rain. some minor impacts are possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 319 am est thu dec 4 2025

patchy freezing drizzle was ending from the northwest to the
southeast. the bufkit soundings do support a snow mix with freezing
drizzle given the top of the cloud in the dgz. the remaining light
precipitation should end by daybreak with limited impacts.

temperatures will try to moderate through saturday, but are
expected to remain some 10 to 15 degrees below normal as the
cold pattern continues. conditions overall for lake effect snow
do not appear favorable given a limited southwest to west fetch
(although a brief northwest fetch is likely). however, lake
michigan water temperatures remain very mild for this time of
year with readings in the 40s (the latest glerl analysis suggest
mid lake temps close to 10c), .

otherwise, a very cold signal continues with the gfs. the
latest (00z) run continues to advertise a large negative 500 mb
height anomaly developing across the upper great lakes region
into southern canada next week. at the surface during this time,
850 mb temperatures will likely reach -12c as another arctic
intrusion reaches the area. local data indicates ft wayne has
had the coldest last 7 day period (from nov 27 to december 3rd
in nearly 50 years) with an average temperature of 24.2 degrees.
this cold pattern is expected to continue for several days.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1211 am est thu dec 4 2025

a weak cold front currently bisects the area from southwest to
northeast. as the front pushes through kfwa and heads southeast
in the next few hours, scattered freezing drizzle will persist.
after 08-09z, dry conditions will prevail through
today and tonight. ceilings will gradually rise from low end
mvfr to low end vfr by daybreak, although skies will remain
overcast as more clouds advect in off of lake michigan. winds
will remain out of the northwest this morning around 10 kts
before becoming light and variable this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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903
fxus63 kdtx 040904
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
404 am est thu dec 4 2025

.key messages...

- near record cold conditions today and friday with wind chills
ranging between -5 and 10f until friday afternoon.

- below normal temperatures persist this weekend and into next week.

- the next chances for light snow will be friday night and sunday with
only a 10 to 40% chance to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.discussion...

longwave troughing over the great lakes and ne conus is reinforced
by the amplified upper wave passing overhead this morning. frigid
conditions are settling in this morning with 925mb temps falling to
the -13 to -15c range. sfc temps in the teens at daybreak will only
recover a few degrees by this afternoon as cold advection continues
through the day. current forecast highs in the lower 20s will
challenge record low max temps across the area. persistent northwest
wind around 15 to 20 mph caps wind chills in the single digits.
meanwhile, post- frontal drying and subsidence will offer increasing
potential for periods of sun for most of the area. the exception
will be the thumb, downwind of the superior-michigan- saginaw bay
connection that will likely maintain a degree of lake cloud and some
flurries. very cold conditions tonight as wind weakens, allowing for
lows in the single digits.

southwest return flow behind departing high pressure ensues friday
to boost temperatures slightly, with highs reaching the mid 20s.
however, 15 to 20 mph wind will again keep the wind chill lower in
the teens. the next shortwave in the active pattern passes through
the region friday night offering the next opportunity for light snow.
the bulk of the ageostrophic response and ascent with the associated
jetlet aloft will be focused north of the area. guidance is also
lean with moisture depth and there will be a fair amount of low
level dry air to overcome to see measurable snow. latest guidance
does suggest a light dusting up to an inch possible north of i-69.

the early saturday period bears monitoring as boundary layer
moisture pools ahead of an inbound cold front, but upper moisture
begins to strip out. model solutions offer tenuous presence or even
loss of ice nuclei - so patchy freezing drizzle is not out of the
question before the front passes through during the day. this
potential is currently less than 20% for any location. post-frontal
dry air then brings decreasing potential for any precip during the
evening. the saturday front brings the next bout of cold air that
extends the below-normal stretch into next week with highs in the
20s and lows in the teens/single digits sunday and monday. a
northern stream wave will track through the northern great lakes on
sunday bringing the next opportunity for light snow. any
accumulations would likely be minor. at this stage moisture depth
doesn`t look to be a concern with this wave and snow should be the
ptype.

high pressure easing directly over the great lakes offers benign but
cold weather to start the week. the tuesday and wednesday period
remains a focus for a series of waves to track overhead within the
energetic northwest flow around the hudson bay upper low. ensemble
guidance continues to exhibit relatively high agreement for
widespread snowfall, with early system strength and moisture progs
suggestive of potential for several inches during this time period.

&&

.marine...

with the cold front now to our east, winds have flipped around to
the northwest across the region ushering an arctic airmass across
the waters. observations behind the front over lake superior show
what was expected thus far with gusts into the low 30 knot range
with sporadic gusts to 35 knots. winds will peak over the next few
hours and then will start to decrease through the rest of the
morning hours. small craft advisories remain in effect for the lake
huron shoreline for winds to 30 knots and increased wave heights.
after weakening to around 20 knots early tonight, there will be
another round of increased southwesterly winds on friday ahead of
the next system passing through ontario with the cold front swinging
through early saturday. another round of small craft advisories for
saginaw bay may be needed and a few gusts to 35 knot gales can`t be
ruled out over northern and central lake huron.

&&

.climate...

the record low max temps for thursday, december 4th.

detroit: 23 degrees (set in 1895)
flint: 23 degrees (set in 1935)
saginaw: 22 degrees (set in 1991)

the record low min temps for friday, december 5th.

detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1974)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1991)
saginaw: 6 degrees (set in 1991)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1158 pm est wed dec 3 2025

aviation...

the cold front is timed to push south of the detroit terminals
between 5-6z this evening. there could be some isolated snow shower
activity immediately behind the front as convergence and initial
cold advection leads to steeper lapse rates. however, models are
adamant in dry advection within the lowest 4.0 kft agl behind the
cold front. this will result in improving conditions with flight
categories improving to vfr. west winds will veer to the northwest
and gust up to 20 knots overnight. there is lower confidence that
skies will clear out late tonight with moisture fluxing off the
great lakes upstream. boundary layer growth on thursday should
continue to help sky conditions with some breaks anticipated after
19z.

for dtw...vfr conditions developing after the cold front pushes
southward with just an isolated brief snow shower possible.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight. low after
18z thursday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......drk
climate......tf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.