Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
385
fxus61 kcle 041043
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
643 am edt thu jun 4 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) period of dry weather continues for 2 more days through
friday.

2.) rain chances return friday night through late saturday.

3.) another stretch of dry weather expected into next week with
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90f possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level ridge that has built over the deep south will finally
begin to break down, but not after two more days of dry weather for
the great lakes. in the meantime, the gradual warm up for the region
will continue with widespread 80s as we finally get into return flow
from high pressure shifting off to the southeast. this finally shuts
off the northeast winds that plagues the area over the weekend and
early this week, and the insolation over dry ground will continue
contributing to rising temperatures as well. by friday, mid to upper
80s will be prevalent for the cwa with upper level flow over the
eastern conus finally becoming more progressive.

key message 2...
weak cyclonic flow aloft will finally make its way back to the area
friday night with surface low pressure and a cold front approaching
from the west. the return flow will provide a significant boost to
the dewpoints which will be in the low to mid 60s by saturday. a
prefrontal surface trough brings convection to the area friday
night, aided by pva and the aforementioned cyclonic flow aloft, and
then another wave of convection expected as the cold front moves
into the region later saturday into early saturday night. also will
expect increases in the low level jet during this time frame
beginning friday night. pwats will climb to 1.25-1.75 inches
supporting heavy convective rain potential.

key message 3...
upper level ridge builds back in over the great lakes beginning
sunday with two main points. the first is the trend back towards
drier conditions through the midweek time frame, and the second will
be heat building into the region as well where 850mb temperatures
hit the upper teens celsius. this will translate to upper 80s to
near 90f in places early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with vfr to persist
through the taf period. winds will increase out of the southwest
later this morning and afternoon, 7 to 10 knots. a lake breeze
may impact cle/eri with west to northwest flow in the mid-
afternoon. winds will gradually diminish to less than 5 knots
after sunset, favoring a slight southerly direction overnight.

outlook...scattered thunderstorms with non-vfr likely at times
on saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the weekend
with no headlines anticipated. flow will increase out of the
southwest late friday through saturday, 10 to 15 knots, with
periods of near 20 knots possible ahead of a low pressure system
and cold front. will need to monitor wind trends, though small
craft potential remains low at this time. winds will shift
towards the northwest behind the front on sunday, around 10
knots. winds will then favor an east to northeast direction by
monday, 10 to 15 knots.

some thunderstorms are possible with the cold front saturday
afternoon and evening which could pose a strong wind threat.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
879
fxus63 kiwx 041111
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
711 am edt thu jun 4 2026

.key messages...

- dry with variable cloud cover today and tonight. highs will
climb into the mid to upper 80s, with breezy southwest winds
in the afternoon. lows tonight fall into the 60s.

- there are chances (greater than 60 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms friday afternoon into saturday evening. lesser
chances (20-45 percent) expected sunday into tuesday,
especially south of us 30 and west of us 31.

- there is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms in most
areas friday afternoon into saturday evening, with a slight
risk in nw oh on saturday afternoon. damaging winds and large
hail are the main threats in the strongest storms. confidence
is low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 428 am edt thu jun 4 2026

upper level ridge remains in place today and tonight, with surface
high pressure center shifting further southeast. light and variable
winds this morning will pick up out of the s-sw through the day as
pressure gradient tightens with approaching trough, with gusts up to
around 15-20 mph (strongest west of in-15). expect partly to mostly
sunny skies in general, though there could be a few cloudier periods
with incoming high clouds to the west this morning into the early
afternoon (kord/kmdw/kmke showing bkn250 as of this writing), but
overall we`ll see a lot of sun and decent mixing. initially was a
bit concerned re: fire weather given the slight uptick in winds with
minimum afternoon humidities forecasted in the 25-35 percent range
today (after yesterday where we saw afternoon rh bottom out in the
15-25 percent range; dewpoints in the mid-upper 30s, low 40s). highs
will also be warmer than yesterday, with most locations reaching at
least the mid 80s. however, models suggest some weak moisture
advection in the low levels towards this afternoon when we would
normally drop to our minimum-so have dewpoints initially begin
dropping into the low 50s with mixing only to start climbing
back into the mid-upper 50s towards the late afternoon and
evening. held off on any sps for elevated fire danger in
collaboration with neighboring offices.

friday into saturday we`ll see our best chances for rain this week
with a mid level trough riding the southward shifting ridge. flow is
somewhat zonal for us depending on the strength of the wave as it
moves through (focus is further north in lower mi). a surface trough
will move through (possible low per some models over lower mi) on
friday afternoon into saturday, with increased moisture transport on
a 35-40kt llj. precipitation is likely to hold off until later fri
afternoon/evening with better moisture transport. spc has portions
of our area (along/north of us 24) in a marginal risk for strong-
severe storms during the late afternoon and overnight period. mlcape
ahead of the trough looks to be around 500-1000 j/kg further
west...with weak mid level lapse rates. expect steepening lapse
rates into the overnight, in addition to increasing 0-6km bulk shear
as the wave moves through (25-40 knots possible). per spc, have 5%
probabilities for both damaging wind/large hail. confidence is lower
in this period re: severe potential given unfavorable overnight
timing, but certainly frequent lightning and heavy downpours are
likely.

saturday morning/afternoon another wave moves through, which
spc has our area in a marginal to slight risk for severe storms.
this is likely our better potential (slight in nw oh) given more
favorable timing, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. certainly
a conditional threat as it will depend on how things evolve
overnight/in the morning and how much instability we can regain
through the day. damaging winds/large hail are both main threats, in
addition to heavy rain and lightning.

depending on where a surface cold front ends up on sunday am/pm, we
could see some storms south of us 24 sunday afternoon-but confidence
is low at this time. additional potential for showers/storms
continue through tuesday, though this is focused further west of in-
15 and south of us 30.

high temperatures will linger in the mid-upper 80s for the
most part through early next week, with lows in the 50s, 60s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 709 am edt thu jun 4 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals this period with northern
indiana still beneath an upper level ridge/surface high. as we head
into this afternoon/evening, surface pressure gradient begins
to tighten slightly ahead of an approaching surface trough/mid
level wave. light/variable winds increase and become more
southwesterly through the day. mixing in the afternoon will
bring gusts up to around 15-20kts at times (highest/more
frequent at ksbn). otherwise, expect variable cloud cover around
25-30kft (per upstream obs, sct/bkn at times).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
853
fxus63 kdtx 041025
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
625 am edt thu jun 4 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warm through tomorrow.

- periods of scattered to numerous rain showers with some embedded
thunderstorms likely friday into saturday.

&&

.aviation...

a large area of surface high pressure will be centered over the
southeast united states today. dry air circulating anticyclonically
around the high pressure will continue to feed into souteast
michigan through the period. moderation of the airmass will provide
for modest surface warming today that could result in some isolated
high based cumulus at our around 7.0 kft agl. otherwise, residual
dry midlevels will persist. southwest wind of 5 to 15 knots is
expected.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticpated throughout the
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 am edt thu jun 4 2026

discussion...

today will be the last day of what will end up being a 10 day
stretch of dry weather spanning across the end of may and beginning
of june. surface low has continued drifting southeast of the region
centering itself now over the mid-atlantic coast but still remaining
in control locally as the 590dam 500mb ridge is still sitting over
the great lakes. several waves tracking through canada continue to
suppress the ridge which will really just increase the wind field a
bit today. most models are very dry but some do offer a few lower
clouds in the 7kft range at the strengthening inversion this
afternoon. little overall clouds with a boost in southwesterly flow
warm air advection will lead to another warm day with highs in the
mid to upper 80s. dewpoints will remain around 50f which will help
keep apparentt in check.

friday and saturday continue to offer the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms as the wave train finally breaks down the ridge
and allows the next trough to pass right over the great lakes
saturday. but first a slow moving cold front will drop into northern
mi with moisture funneling up along it friday bringing increase
humidity, especially later in the day. a low level jet will nose
into the region after 18z bringing a surge a theta e through mid mi.
model soundings offer a decent cap through most of the afternoon but
hint at possibly breaking the cap in the late afternoon and evening
with a wave rippling along the front which will bring the first
chance of showers. some embedded thunderstorms will be possible with
a couple hundred j/kg (at best) of mucape and strong low level lapse
rates. shear will be weak so not expecting organized storms. spc day
2 outlook is for general thunderstorms with marginal risk trying to
nose in from sw lower mi.

as the wave rides along the front, a surface low will begin to
develop keeping rain chances friday night. the best cape actually
moves in overnight with a prefrontal trough ties to the developing
low. so thunderstorm chances remain overnight with hires models
pointing to a 03-09z window for best coverage. the main cold front
then drops through later in the day saturday passing through the
eastern half of the cwa during peak heating offering a bit of a
recharge to the atmosphere. cape values could exceed 1000 j/kg with
shear increasing to around 30 knots but with poor lapse rates. so
after a possible brief lull in precipitation the first half of the
day, we could deal with a few hours in the afternoon/evening with
more thunderstorms.

amplified upper level ridge builds back in quickly for sunday with the
southern extent of a surface high over canada dropping through
behind the cold front bring drier conditions back for sunday. the
narrow ridge will have a neutral tilt with southerly flow through
the central conus creating channel of moisture through that region
with a cutoff low over texas drifting north and becoming absorbed by
the next trough passing over the rockies. models were previously
very dry through the first have of the week but now suggest the
approaching trough could be strong enough to push farther east into
the great lakes which could bring rain chances back tuesday and
wednesday.

marine...

influence of high pressure begins to wane today as it shifts over
the appalachians. in response, initially light winds organize out of
the southwest this morning while gradually strengthening through the
remainder of the day towards 15-20kts. weak area of low pressure
ejects out of the plains over the northern great lakes by friday
afternoon offering the area`s next chances for showers and
thunderstorms through saturday. a slight further uptick in sw wind
occurs friday with peak gusts reaching the lower 20kt range with
near 25kt gusts possible in the saginaw bay due to shoreline
effects. passage of a weak cold front daytime saturday shifts flow
to the north-northeast with winds weakening as northern ontario high
pressure attempting to build into the central great lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.