Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
839
fxus61 kcle 211809
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
209 pm edt thu may 21 2026

.what has changed...
models have trended a bit slower regarding the onset of
precipitation on friday, pushing it into the late afternoon into the
evening across southern counties. still expecting widespread showers
to push north late friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
impact the area through the holiday weekend, bringing locally heavy
rainfall and potential flooding concerns.

2) high pressure midweek will allow for warmer temperatures to move
back into the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure slowly drifts to the northeast on friday, a weak
surface low will begin to move north from the gulf coast area
towards the region. as a warm front approaches from the south friday
evening, overriding moisture supported by an upper level shortwave
will result in widespread showers spreading north ahead of the
boundary. the overriding has slowed a bit, pushing the bulk of
precipitation to begin late afternoon into the evening and have
opted to reflect this trend in the forecast. by friday evening, much
of the area should be experiencing rainfall. the biggest uncertainty
will be the thunder potential, but given some modeled elevated
instability, cannot rule out a few rumbles, however nothing severe
is expected at this time. late saturday, the warm front will finally
push north of the area, allowing for a break in showers to spread
west to east saturday night. on sunday, much of the area should
reside in the warm sector of the low for much of the day, allowing
for increased instability across the area. this along with a
prefrontal trough may allow for some diurnal thunderstorms to
develop ahead of the approaching cold front. the cold front will be
relatively weak as it pushes east late sunday into monday. on
monday, showers should gradually diminish across the area, leaving
much of the memorial day holiday dry. temperatures will gradually
warm through the weekend with highs on friday in the 60s, gradually
increasing into the 70s by monday.

the primary concern going into the holiday weekend is how much
rainfall will occur across the area with the return of a moist
airmass with pwat values climbing over 1.5". rainfall totals have
not changed much from previous forecasts with totals across the area
in the 1-1.5" range over a 24 hour period. the bulk of this water
will be handled well, however some area rivers may rise into flood
and typical flood prone locations may see problems. given the time
span, flash flood concerns remain minimal with a higher risk of
gradually water rises. to highlight this heavy rain and flood
concern, wpc has kept the ohio counties in a day 2 marginal (level 1
of 5) ero.

key message 2...
after this low pressure system moves north out of the area, a
surface ridge centered over the southeastern u.s. will begin to
nudge north, allowing for a more summer-like airmass to return. an
associated high at the surface should keep precipitation chances at
a minimum through midweek with highs gradually climbing towards the
80s. given the source of the airmass, humidity values are also
expected to climb with peak rh values likely exceeding 50%. these
humid conditions have the potential to increase apparent
temperatures into the 80s. confidence is fairly low in the exact
details given how far out that is. this warmth looks likely to stick
around as the latest cpc 6-10 day outlook suggests above average
temperatures will impact much of the northern u.s.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are anticipated through at least early friday
morning before clouds increase from the south late in the taf
period. a few showers and mvfr ceilings can`t be ruled out at
southern terminals towards the end of the taf period, however it
appears that the chance is greater after 18z friday.

winds will be out of the east/northeast at 8 to 15 knots
throughout the taf period with gusts to 20 to 25 knots during
the day today and friday. winds will be slightly higher at keri
this afternoon with sustained winds to 20 knots and gusts to 30
knots expected. gusts should diminish after sunset.

outlook...non-vfr expected at times in rain late friday through
saturday night. scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-
vfr conditions possible again on sunday and monday.

&&

.marine...
unsettled marine conditions will persist through late saturday
and small craft advisories and beach hazards statements remain
in place for the next couple of days with headlines ending from
the east starting friday evening. east/northeast winds to 15 to
25 knots are expected through friday evening with winds
becoming more southeasterly on friday night. waves will be
highest at 5 to 7 feet in the central basin during this time,
including the eastern side of the islands.

winds will likely diminish a bit during the day saturday as low
pressure lifts northeast towards lake erie, although offshore
winds around 20 knots are likely in the eastern basin through
saturday. headlines may need to continue if winds trend higher.
winds become more light and variable sunday through tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through saturday morning for ohz003-
007-009-010.
beach hazards statement through friday evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through friday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt friday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 211858
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
258 pm edt thu may 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms late friday into friday
night. storms not severe, but locally heavy rainfall likely.

- scattered showers & isolated storms at times early next week.

- warm next week with highs around 80 to 85.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 250 pm edt thu may 21 2026

northeast flow associated with a surface high pressure area that
was centered over lake superior was causing a northeast flow over
northern indiana and surrounding areas. dew points were only in
the 30s to around 40 early today. this chilly pattern will bring
one more cold night with lows dipping into the 40s over most
locations.

after tonight, energy in the form of short wave trofs will eject
east and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms north of the
ohio river. the next one of these systems will reach the forecast
area by late friday. moisture will spread over the midwest ahead
of this system. precipitable water values will rise anomalously
high and reach between 1.75" and 2.00" friday per gfs. overall
wind speeds and subsequent wind shear should stay weak. expect
storms will stay below severe levels but will be accompanied by
locally heavy rains.

chances for rain and storms will continue next week as
temperatures warm and as moisture increases over the area. a
large capping inversion will develop over the area during this
time. flow will remain weak, but moisture will remain high.
storm coverage should remain very limited until about wednesday
when some energy is able to eject out of the upper level trof
and make it into the midwest.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 131 pm edt thu may 21 2026

high pressure moving east, north of the area, gives way to
increasing moisture friday morning as low pressure moves northward.
given this exchange of pressure centers, gradient wind is expected
to be active with sustained winds between 10 and 20 kts and with
gusts between 20 and 25 kts more likely this afternoon than friday
morning. we`ll have to look towards 18z or shortly thereafter for
the arrival of mvfr cigs (fwa has a greater chance for these) and
rain probably starts some time in the mid to late afternoon friday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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690
fxus63 kdtx 211932
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
332 pm edt thu may 21 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool again friday.

- rain returns by friday night into saturday morning. locally heavy rainfall
of an inch or more is possible from monroe to port huron.

- milder this weekend, with chances for thunderstorms saturday and sunday.

- warming trend into early next week with highs climbing back above normal.

&&

.discussion...

the southern flank of 1034 mb surface high pressure has governed
conditions over se michigan today, leading to mostly sunny skies and
light east-northeast flow. this shallow layer (~5.0 kft) of easterly
flow has kept daytime highs about 10 degrees below average. se conus
ridging takes control of flow above ~700mb, allowing mid-upper level
cloud to stream into the saginaw valley and thumb regions this
evening.

high pressure influence wanes friday as cyclogenesis occurs
upstream over the dakotas. there are several implications of this
locally, with the first being a strengthening pressure gradient.
east winds thus become breezy friday with gusts up to 30 mph. second
is the release of the theta-e gradient northward into se michigan
friday evening. the existing subsidence inversion (noted between 850-
700mb in the 12z kdtx raob) will remain in place until this occurs,
capping mixing depths around 5.0 kft agl and allowing temperatures
to climb just a few degrees higher than today.

meanwhile, a second low forms over the ohio valley friday as a low
amplitude shortwave ripples over the unstable warm sector. this low
establishes its own frontal structure and draws plenty of moisture
northward due to its origins near the gulf. trajectory of the
surface low either directly over se michigan or just to the east
leaves us on the edge of the strongest moisture transport, with the
highest qpf axis following suit. nonetheless, about 20% of ensemble
members continue to generate over an inch of qpf along the eastern
border of the cwa (roughly monroe to port huron, including urban
areas of detroit). these higher qpf solutions anchor to a strong
925-850mb frontal circulation, set to lift through se michigan
between 09-15z saturday (5am-11am). this is the window where we are
likely to see the heaviest rainfall rates, before a mid-level dry
slot arrives and strips away column moisture for the afternoon.
rainfall chances and storm total amounts decrease with
westward/northward extent for saturday morning. while there is
potential for fgen to enhance rainfall rates, lapse rates are
unimpressive (< 5.5 c/km) for convective enhancement saturday
morning. a rumble of thunder however cannot be ruled out.

increased variability in the solution space regarding rain chances
saturday afternoon-evening. this will depend largely on the pace at
which the low occludes and if any moisture can wrap back around the
low. outgoing forecast is for a dry saturday night period.
additional rain chances sunday are tied to the arrival of the
broader, northern stream trough, driven eastward by a 70 knot jet
streak. there is a better chance of thunderstorms sunday as mid-
levels cool invof the trough. warming temperatures then expected for
the holiday week, climbing back above normal. this is supported by
good agreement in the days 5-7 cluster analysis which depict an upper
ridge overhead.

&&

.marine...

high pressure centered over the northern great lakes will continue
to hold through tonight before shifting off to the east. northeast
winds this afternoon will persist with gusts staying below 20 knots
for most marine areas. the two areas that are seeing higher gusts
have been western portion of lake erie, as well as inner saginaw
bay. given the fetch down the long axis of the lake which is
causing a local increase in wind and waves, small craft advisories
are currently in effect for these areas. winds will continue to
increase as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next low
pressure system lifting north into the region from the south friday
into saturday. this will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the area, along with small craft advisories going
into effect for the rest of the nearshore zones through the day on
friday. northeast to easterly winds will continue to be gusty
through saturday, with potential for gusts to reach up to 30 knots.

&&

.hydrology...

a round of steady soaking rainfall is forecast to spread across
southeast mi from south to north friday evening into saturday
morning as low pressure lifts in from the mid mississippi valley.
additional showers and some thunderstorms are possible saturday
afternoon but carry less certainty at this time. forecast rainfall
totals range generally between a half inch and 1 inch during this
event. locally higher rainfall totals of an inch or greater are
possible from monroe to port huron. overall dry conditions for much
of the area over the past 30 days suggests the potential for
flooding is low.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1253 pm edt thu may 21 2026

aviation...

a large area of surface high pressure centered on the northern great
lakes extends well south into the ohio valley tonight. this setup
supplies a dry ne wind into se mi that is proving more than adequate
to keep conditions free of low clouds, despite trajectories across
lake huron. that leaves just varying amounts of cirrus coverage
spreading west to east across lower mi tonight which solidify and
lower during friday morning. surface wind becomes moderate easterly
with gusts near 20 knots while ceiling holds above 5000 ft all areas
until closer to or after 18z friday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms this afternoon through friday
morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 4 pm friday to 10 am edt saturday for
lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 10 pm friday to 10 am edt saturday for
lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 4 am friday to 10 am edt saturday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......ss
hydrology....mv/tf
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.