Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 272330
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
730 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast. precipitation chances
for thursday continue to trend later.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue through wednesday with dry,
seasonable weather expected. precipitation returns thursday with low
confidence in timing.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to build across the northern great lakes
through wednesday with pleasant, seasonable weather expected.
temperatures through then will be in the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows down into the low to mid 50s. the low pressure off
the east coast currently will start to drift westward this evening
and there will be a low chance in precipitation across far ne oh and
nw pa, but confidence is low since there will be plenty of dry air
across the region to compete with. the next chance for precipitation
will be with a low pressure system moving into the region from the
west on thursday. there`s still low confidence on this system as
model guidance has continued to vary with timing as it moves
eastward.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr will persist through this evening before clouds move west
over eastern terminals and patchy fog and areas of low stratus
develop at inland terminals late tonight/early monday morning.
in locations that experience fog (best chance kmfd), ifr
conditions are likely and lifr conditions are possible. eastern
terminals will experience mvfr ceilings as clouds move in from
the east, although there may be a brief period of ifr conditions
at kyng early monday morning. confidence in ifr conditions is
highest at keri. some lower ceilings may attempt to move into
the vicinity of kcak early in monday morning, but confidence in
the westward extent of the cloud shield is too low at this
point.

winds will largely be out of the north at 10 knots or less
through the taf period, although keri will likely experience a
more northeasterly wind direction through monday morning.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. non-
vfr possible in scattered showers on thursday and friday.

&&

.marine...
there will be choppy conditions across lake erie beginning this
evening with onshore winds increasing to 10-20 knots and waves
building to 2-4 feet. this will continue through monday afternoon
when the winds and waves begin to subside to less than 10 knots and
less than 2 feet across the lake. high pressure will build back
overhead during the middle of the week and winds will then shift to
be out of the south by tuesday night at 5-10 knots. low pressure
begins to move into the region early thursday and winds will
increase out of the south-southwest to 10-15 knots through the late
evening.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 280526
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 am edt mon sep 28 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions persist through at least tuesday, and quite
possibly wednesday, with slowly moderating temperatures.

- the next chance (50-70%) of rain arrives on thursday.
thunderstorms are possible but severe weather and heavy rain
are not expected.

- confidence in the forecast beyond thursday is low but it does
appear to trend toward cooler and drier weather returning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 122 am edt mon sep 28 2026

the area is bookended by two areas of vorticity to start this
monday, but the stalled pattern shears out the vorticity to our west
and the nor`easter over the northeast pushes out to sea during the
day today. this leaves the area under surface high pressure and mid
level ridging suppressing activity and keeping the area dry today.
this continues a 3 day streak of seeing minrh values reach 30
percent overhead indicating how dry it has gotten each day. we
securely reached into the 70s for highs on sunday and much of our
southwest zones and portions of nw oh saw 75f highs. this
combination of dry air and seasonable highs is expected to continue
for today with another day of low to mid 70s for highs (some areas
may stretch into the upper 70s) and dew points in the 50s that
may attempt to mix back into the 40s during peak heating. the
one thing that could stop mixing today is some high clouds
overhead.

at the same time, a trough moves into the western us and pushes
eastward. the northern stream trough shears out from the southern
stream and a cutoff low forms across the southwest. this causes the
stronger vorticity to pass by north of the area where the better jet
dynamics reside. this allows another dry day for tuesday and helps
trend wednesday away from being wet to more of a dry day. nam bufkit
soundings at beh indicate a very dry layer below 850 mb through all
of wednesday.

for thursday into friday, the upper low in central canada pushes a
trough southeastward and this helps push the sheared out vorticity
into the area. this also pushes better moisture content into the
area and so confidence is higher on finally getting a return to
rain. even still, surface moisture doesn`t appear as hydrated as it
could be, instability is very low, and the trough is rather
progressive through the day thursday indicating rain that doesn`t
appear all that heavy.

now that that trough is through the area by day`s end friday, the
cutoff low down in the southwest doesn`t have the necessary kick to
get it up to the area and so it continues to remain down in the
southwest. there is uncertainty between the gfs and ecmwf on whether
to bring the energy/moisture from this low northward this weekend.
even the aigfs is between the two in a camp closer to the cmc, which
brings it into the area early, but keeps it south of the storm track
of the ecmwf.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 122 am edt mon sep 28 2026

with the northerly drainage flow over the relative cooler se lk mi
waters, fog will be on the mind on the coastal region. at this
point, it looks like there could be enough easterly flow component
to keep fog away from sbn. additionally, flow looks to avoid fwa and
so it would come down to ag fog advecting into fwa for fog to form
there. we`ll continue to watch for fog overnight but will continue
to keep it out of the terminals with this issuance. otherwise,
northerly winds stay less than 10 kts sustained through the
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 280356
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1156 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into wednesday.

- areas of dense fog are forecast monday and tuesday mornings.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of next week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.aviation...

high amplitude h3 to h5 ridging will remain in place across the
central great lakes throughout the taf period. the high pressure
will be immediately upstream as a dipole to the closed northeast
united states upper level low. active subsidence between 2.0 and
10.0 kft agl will help facilitate deep stability. persistent north
northeasterly flow trajectories off of lake huron will bring the
potential for fog again monday morning. well agreed upon signal for
br/fg with namnest and hrrr surface condensation pressure deficits
and mos guidance.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt sun sep 27 2026

discussion...

deep layer subsidence across lower mi will persist through tuesday
as a broad ridge hold in place. the departure of the upper low over
the mid atlantic across new england on tuesday and height falls
across the upper midwest will actually amplify the mid level ridge
across lower mi, which will only strengthen the subsidence. forecast
mixing depths on model soundings and probabilistic temperature data
suggest a continuation of afternoon high temperatures in the low to
mid 70s monday and tuesday, while the large scale subsidence will
support abundant afternoon sunshine. late night and morning fog will
be the primary forecast concerns the next few mornings. nne flow off
lake huron will persist through tonight. given the response off the
lake this morning and considering dewpoints across the region are a
few degrees higher than yesterday, another stratus/fog plume off
lake huron and saginaw bay is forecast to develop tonight/monday
morning. a little stronger winds atop the nocturnal inversion and
slight backing of the winds toward the north may advect the
stratus/fog layer farther south into metro detroit. the low level
wind fields will be much weaker mon night/tuesday morning as high
pressure settles overhead, reducing the risk of advective fog.
however, residual moisture in the nocturnal boundary layer capped by
ideal radiative cooling potential will raise the risk of pure
radiation fog development.

phasing of a southern stream long wave trough with the remnants of
hurricane polo will transport a tropical moisture plume into the
southern and central high plains tuesday and will increase moisture
advection into a low to mid level frontal boundary forecast to
progress across the upper midwest and great lakes region in the
thursday to friday time frame. the front will be driven across the
region in response to the northern stream wave tracking across nrn
ontario. differences in amplitude and timing of this wave leads to
large spread among the model ensembles in timing the frontal system
across lower mi. trends in the latest probabilistic guidance are
supporting a later timing, leading to higher chances of an all out
dry and warm day wednesday. the potential for good frontal dynamics
within the high theta e axis along the front will support a good
chance for rain. within the latest probability space, that is
expected sometime in the thursday to friday time frame. high spread
in ensemble 24 hour forecast qfp values (ranging anywhere from a
quarter inch to 2 inches) is a result of the variation in ensemble
members as to how progressive this front will be across the southern
lakes.

marine...

high pressure now situated over the great lakes will hold through
tuesday. some periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be
possible across southern lake huron this evening. otherwise, wind
gust potential to or below 15 knots is expected for most locations.
wind direction will mainly hold from the north to northeast with
high pressure in place. a warm front will then move through on
tuesday which will shift wind direction from the south to southwest.
this will also bring the next chance for some rain showers or
thunderstorms wednesday and thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sc
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.