Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
315
fxus61 kcle 242339
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 pm edt mon aug 24 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) lingering lake effect rain showers and clouds will continue
across the snowbelt into tuesday.

2) showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front
wednesday night through thursday. there is a low risk for strong
to severe storms at this time.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest satellite imagery reveals a large upper-level low
slowly rotating east across quebec this afternoon, with
lingering weak surface troughing found over the eastern great
lakes. radar imagery reveals mainly isolated to scattered light
lake effect rain showers across portions of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania this afternoon. coverage is expected to
remain mainly isolated to scattered as low-level moisture
remains limited. conditions will gradually improve throughout
the day tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west,
resulting in a wide array of temperatures ranging from the low
80s across northwest ohio, to the upper 60s or low 70s across
northwest pennsylvania.


key message 2..
the next system will cross the area wednesday night into
thursday, extending a cold front across the region thursday
night. rain chances will first increase wednesday night along
and west of the i-75 corridor as decaying showers and
thunderstorms begin to move east into the area, associated with
a pre-frontal shortwave. still some uncertainty on the timing of
this feature, though the latest guidance favors redevelopment
of this activity thursday afternoon, generally east of the i-71
corridor. there is some support for some stronger storms to
develop ahead of the front thursday afternoon and evening in
this area, aided by a 25 to 30-knot sw 700 mb jet, though the
overall threat for a more organized severe weather threat
remains lows at this time.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period. ceilings of
around 050-060 will be over the eastern half of the area through
the overnight into tomorrow morning before it begins to
dissipate. keri will hold on to the ceilings a bit longer, but
should scatter out by tomorrow afternoon. there`s low confidence
in patchy fog across the western and southwestern terminals
early tomorrow morning. kept the 5sm br wording for ktol, kfdy,
and kmfd to account for this though may need to be adjusted with
when/where fog develops.

winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming
predominately out of the west-southwest at around 5 knots
through the day tomorrow.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
the lake will gradually calm this evening and tonight as high
pressure builds into the lower great lakes. expect wnw winds of
15-25 knots late this afternoon to decrease to 5-10 knots
tonight while becoming nw. this will allow the current 2 to 5
foot waves to subside to generally 1 foot or less by tuesday
morning, but some 1 to 2 footers could hold on in the far
eastern basin through midday tuesday. the small craft headlines
remain on track to expire from west to east this evening,
starting with the islands to avon point at 21z then avon point
to ripley at 04z. winds and waves will continue to be monitored
for the possibility of expiring these earlier.

light and variable winds tuesday will turn s to sw at 5-10 knots
tuesday night and wednesday, increasing to 15-20 knots ahead of
a cold front wednesday night. winds will then turn wsw and
gradually decrease behind the front thursday, becoming n at 5-10
knots by thursday night through saturday as another area of
high pressure builds down across the great lakes.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until midnight edt tonight for ohz011-
012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until midnight edt tonight for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...23
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
454
fxus63 kiwx 242327
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
727 pm edt mon aug 24 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and much lower humidity
continue through tuesday.

- 40-60% chances for rain and storms wednesday afternoon and
evening. there is a marginal risk for severe weather with all
hazards possible. low confidence.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 102 pm edt mon aug 24 2026

high pressure directly overhead is making for a very tranquil and
pleasant late august day! highs are expected to reach the upper 70s
today amid mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds. partly
cloudy skies overnight should keep any fog concerns at bay as
radiational cooling should be somewhat limited, although lows are
expected to be in the low to mid 50s again tuesday morning.
with high pressure situated over the great lakes region again
tomorrow, highs will be slightly warmer in the upper 70s to low 80s
as the airmass overhead moderates and winds shift to be out of the
southwest. comfortable humidity with dew points in the mid to upper
50s continues through tuesday.

wednesday is increasingly warmer and humid with 40-60% chances for
rain and storms. an upper level trough will deepen over the great
lakes and a surface cold front is expected to move through during
the day. our area will be in the warm sector out ahead of the front
with increased waa and low level moisture transport from southerly
winds. given the favorable timeframe, highs in the low 80s, and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, severe weather is possible as
1500-2500 j/kg of surface based instability and decent 0-6 km shear
of 25-30 kts should develop wednesday afternoon and evening. with
the frontal passage during the peak heating hours of the day, at
least isolated severe weather will be possible as spc maintains a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for wednesday. 60 mph wind gusts and 1"
hail will be the main threats with multicellular clusters that are
expected to develop but if a few discrete storms can maintain
themselves (low confidence), an all hazards setup may occur.
forecast soundings from the nam, rap, and gfs show varying
amounts of low level shear and helicity, so there are still some
uncertainties to sort through. in the vicinity of the cold
front, 100-150 m2/s2 of srh which would provide enough spin to
support an isolated tornado threat. all of the models have poor
lapse mid and low level lapse rates though, which could indicate
this being a a limiting factor and/or a possible failure mode.
there is still uncertainty regarding exact timing, coverage, and
intensity of storms.

another area of high pressure builds across the midwest and great
lakes late in the week, bringing a return to dry conditions at least
through the first half of the upcoming weekend. have kept low
chances (20-30%) for rain and storms for sunday. temperatures will
remain near normal with a gradual warming trend into the mid 80s for
highs by the end of august.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 727 pm edt mon aug 24 2026

high pressure parked overhead yields calm wind during the
overnight hours. radiation fog appears a strong possibility.
however, incoming mid-level clouds from wi are one element that
decreases forecast confidence, though these clouds may move on
with plenty of time for radiation fog to develop. given the
inherited taf mention and an overall favorable synoptic setup,
i`ve included tempo ifr conditions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
084
fxus63 kdtx 250400
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1200 am edt tue aug 25 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend through the middle of the week with increased
humidity.

- next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive late wednesday.
an isolated strong storm possible wednesday evening.

- lingering chances for scattered showers/storms thursday afternoon.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through the rest of the early morning
period given the ongoing clearing trend under the light northwest
surface wind. with clearing skies and light winds, there is a low
potential for radiation fog to develop mainly along the higher
terrain areas and north towards mbs where dewpoint depressions are
lower. low probability for anything other than some isolated pockets
of lower visibility to develop. winds generally out of remain
generally out of the west-southwest for today with a more southerly
direction for the metro terminals during the afternoon. scattered
diurnal cumulus in the afternoon is expected to remain vfr.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period. low probability for radiative fog developing early this
morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 235 pm edt mon aug 24 2026

discussion...

cyclonic influence from the closed low circulation over ontario has
supported an expansion of stratocu across the most of the northern
half of se mi this afternoon. this cloud quickly fades late this
evening as troughing finally dislodges east allowing northern ohio
valley high pressure to fully build over southern lower mi tonight.
cooler night is again in store albeit a couple degrees warmer than
last night (more mid 50s than the lower 50s yesterday). high
pressure drifts east over the course of tuesday maintaining a
pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and highs back around 80.

next shortwave drops out of the canadian prairie into the northern
great lakes tuesday night. locally, this results in a developing
warm front lifting through the area early wednesday morning.
organizing low level southwest winds result in slow moisture
transport over the course of wednesday as dewpoints climb from the
upper 50s in the am to the mid 60s by evening. given the gradual
arrival of moisture and the main theta-e plume tied along the
approaching cold frontal slope, expectation is the majority of the
day will stay dry. possible exception is the tri-cities/northern
thumb who reside closer to the mid-level trough base that will be
sinking through northern lower mi potentially offering a few passing
afternoon showers. instead, main window for showers/storms for the
entire area is looking to between ~23-06z coinciding with both the
arrival of the cold front/preceding pooling of theta-e as well as
the mid/upper trough digging south through the state. in terms of
severe potential, set-up remains marginal. late evening arrival is
on the backedge of the diurnal cycle allowing for at least several
hundred j/kg of mlcape being place; however column wind fields
aren`t particularly robust, largely unidirectional 20-30kt flow
yielding shear values between 25-30kts. given this setup, the
current day 3 marginal risk from spc appears warranted for an
isolated strong/borderline severe cell.

while the cold front clears the region by thursday morning, trailing
airmass is essentially the same as dewpoints remain in the mid 60s
with highs in the lower 80s. lapse rates steepen by afternoon as
upper troughing settles over the central great lakes sparking
chances scattered showers/thunderstorms. passage of a secondary cold
front thursday night should finally shunt the bulk of humidity south
returning dewpoints to upper 50s/60.

marine...

high pressure will begin to settle in across the great lake regions
tonight and will center over the region by tomorrow afternoon. this
will work to decrease wind speeds tonight, leading to light winds by
tomorrow. wind direction will pivot south to southwest ahead of an
upper-level disturbance and cold front on wednesday which will bring
some elevated winds ahead of the front. wind gusts around 20 to 25
knots will be increasingly likely with the southwest flow along with
rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms. wind direction to veer
to the west-northwest in the wake of the front on thursday as high
pressure builds in. this will support light winds to end the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.