Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
804 pm edt tue jun 16 2026

.what has changed...
minor adjustment to rain/storm timing and amounts through early
thursday. increasing confidence in gusty non-thunderstorm winds
late wednesday night into thursday across much of the area.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and storms move through from west to east
this evening and tonight. storms will be on a weakening trend,
but may still pack isolated stronger wind gusts along i-75 where
a marginal risk for severe weather is in place this evening.

2) another round of showers and storms moves through from west
to east late wednesday and wednesday night. uncertainty remains
regarding the magnitude and placement of the severe risk with
this activity, but all severe hazards and localized flash
flooding are possible. storms have the greatest probability of
being severe across the western half of the area, where a slight
risk for severe weather is in place.

3) synoptic (non-thunderstorm) winds will be gusty out of the
south wednesday night and out of the west on thursday. gusts
have potential to reach 40 to 50 mph at times and a wind
advisory may be needed for portions of the area.

4) cooler than average with mainly isolated or minor rain
chances are expected to end the week and start the weekend. a
system may move through sunday or monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
water vapor, satellite, and radar imagery all depict a
seasonally impressive shortwave trough and associated surface
low and cold front pushing into the southwestern great lakes
this afternoon. this package will move east and affect the local
area late today into tonight.

the main focus will be shower and thunder potential along and
ahead of the cold front. this activity is taking shape from
northwest ohio into michigan/indiana this afternoon and will
sweep east tonight. both the front itself and a pre-frontal
trough may act as triggers for showers/thunder. overall, expect
a batch or two of showers/thunder to move east across the area
with activity slowly weakening as we lose daytime heating and
with a drier/more stable airmass to the east. some showers
likely will make it east across the area given the forcing with
the shortwave trough. the spc maintains a marginal risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather in the form of isolated damaging
winds across the i-75 corridor for late this afternoon and
evening. the environment will feature marginal deep-layer shear,
deep low-level inverted-v profiles, but modest/skinny/shallow
instability profiles. this overall environment can support
isolated damaging downburst winds, but as convection weakens
through the evening and as the low-levels stabilize with sunset
this modest risk should diminish fairly quickly.

it will be another cooler/pleasant night, especially late
tonight behind the showers, with lows mainly falling into the
50s with closer to 60 along the lake. the first half or so of the
day wednesday will be dry and pleasant with a fair amount of
sun. highs will mainly top out in the 70s to perhaps near 80.

key message #2:
a potent shortwave will dive into the upper midwest tonight,
quickly amplifying and taking on a negative tilt while swinging
into the great lakes wednesday night. this evolution will force
a strong surface low through the great lakes wednesday night
into early thursday. the low will lift a warm front back across
the area late wednesday, followed quickly by a cold front late
wednesday night/early thursday. thunderstorms with a risk for
severe weather and heavy rain will be a concern, mainly along
and just ahead of the cold front wednesday evening and night,
though the forecast is tricky with sources for uncertainty.

guidance is hinting at two potential rounds of convection...a
first, lower-confidence round late wednesday afternoon/early
evening as the warm front lifts across the area, and then a
second and more widespread round from the west later wednesday
evening/night along and ahead of the cold front.

in terms of any activity with the warm front late wednesday
afternoon or evening, several models attempt to show some rain
and possibly a few storms moving east-northeast across the area
after about 3 pm and the forecast has a corresponding increase
in pops. however, a limiting factor for severe weather with this
first round will be a fairly cool, dry, and stable airmass in
place ahead of the warm front and overall slow moisture return
until later in the evening. this environment may ultimately make
it hard to destabilize enough for a severe weather threat with
the warm front. both low-level and deep- layer shear will be
quite strong, so if we do see a sustained storm or two with the
warm front as the 12z hrrr depicts the activity may be
supercellular with at least some potential for any severe
hazard...however, it`s worth noting most guidance is less
aggressive than the 12z hrrr in this window, so unless we trend
towards quicker destabilization than currently expected the main
severe threat will be with the overnight cold front. if there is
an earlier severe storm with the warm front, it would be
favored towards the marion/mt vernon areas in our southwest.

in terms of the main convective potential with the cold front,
the environment to our west is expected to be very conducive to
severe weather with all hazards wednesday afternoon and evening.
severe convection is expected to develop to our west and spread
east, and there`s high confidence that most of the area will at
least see some rain and thunder as the cold front and that
convection progress through overnight. what`s of lower
confidence is severe weather potential across the local area
with this second round. what we know is that wind shear will be
very impressive wednesday night as a 60-70kt low-level jet
sweeps across the area...not common for the middle of june, and
this makes it such that we will not need much instability to see
severe weather if we see organized, surface-based convection.
however, most guidance suggests deeper instability will struggle
to advect into our area wednesday night, with hi-res models
showing mixed depictions of the exact timing, track, and
evolution of more organized convection across our area. any
severe threat with the cold front likely arrives in the toledo
area after 7-8 pm and continues east-southeast through 2-3 am.

the general consensus is that the severe weather risk will peak
to our west on wednesday with a gradual weakening trend across
our area due to a combination of less conducive diurnal timing
and a generally drier and more stable environment to the east.
however, the amount of forcing and shear are concerning still
locally...guidance generally suggests convection will be
transitioning from a supercellular to more linear mode
wednesday night while pushing into our area. given the amount of
wind shear, any surface-based supercells that make it into our
area could bring all severe hazards (wind, tornadoes, possibly
hail), with more linear storm models favoring wind damage and
still some qlcs tornado potential. the general impression is
that the environment should remain conducive enough for a severe
threat into at least northwest ohio with the cold front
wednesday night, but it becomes increasingly murkier and less
favorable overall for severe weather to the east. given the
amount of wind shear this setup certainly has some upside or
ceiling, as indicated by the sig1 hatching on the day 2 spc
outlook across northwest ohio for wind and tornadoes. however as
discussed confidence is on the lower side given questions about
timing and instability locally, particularly farther east. feel
the spc day 2 slight risk (level 2 of 5) for the western half of
our area tapering to a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to the east
captures the general flavor of this forecast/messaging well.

deep-layer flow will become fairly parallel to the sagging cold
front wednesday night as high pwats (1.70-1.90") advect in on a
strong low-level jet. this offers potential for some training
convection with a local flash flooding risk wednesday night.
many hi-res models have swaths of 3-5" of rain somewhere across
the broader region with wednesday night`s convection, but do not
agree on a more defined corridor of where this may occur yet.

key message #3:
this notably strong system for mid-june will bring impressive
synoptic wind gusts for meteorological summer to the area
wednesday night and thursday. there are two windows for stronger
gusts...one will be beneath the strong, 60-70kt southerly low-
level jet ahead of the cold front wednesday night. these winds
will not mix down very efficiently, but there may be some
sporadic stronger gusts as the weakening convection moves across
the area ahead of the cold front. the lakeshore from near
cleveland points northeast may also experience a window of
stronger 45-55 mph type gusts due to localized downslope
enhancement. the next window will be during the day thursday
behind the cold front, as winds aloft remain strong and as
mixing heights quickly deepen with daytime heating behind the
cold front. the general impression is much of the area can see
40-50 mph wind gusts out of the west-southwest on thursday.

we are a forecast cycle or two too early for wind advisories,
but we may need advisories along the eastern lakeshore for
wednesday night and a more widespread headline for the day
thursday. we normally do not see widespread/synoptic winds that
are this gusty when trees are fully leafed out, which could
cause more to come down than would typically occur with these
types of winds during the winter months.

key message #4:

the rest of the 7-day forecast will be relatively quieter after
thursday. a nice cooldown is expected to end the week and start
the weekend, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. a system
looks to move east across the general region sunday or monday,
bringing the next more organized rain potential.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
a few scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in
interior ne ohio. these could bring brief downpours and gusty
winds to mainly kcle, kmfd, kcak, and kyng over the next hour
or two, but confidence on any hitting a terminal is low. biggest
impact will be gusty winds over the next hour. a second round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move into nw ohio
late this evening but will be falling apart with eastward
extent. the best chance for periods of rain and thunder, leading
to occasional mvfr, will be at ktol and kfdy in the 02-04z
timeframe. the showers should reach the kmfd and kcle areas by
03-06z, but removed the mention of thunder there and just have
vcsh by the time they reach kcak, kyng, and keri since they will
be rapidly decaying.

otherwise, vfr will dominate through wednesday afternoon until
a much more organized wave of showers and thunderstorms starts
to move in from the west toward the end of the taf cycle. there
is great uncertainty with the timing of wednesday evening`s
round, but introduced some precip at the end of the period, with
the greatest coverage at ktol and kfdy.

s to sw winds will decrease to 5-10 knots this evening through
tonight until increasing to 15-25 knots wednesday afternoon
while turning more se. winds could become unusually gusty for
summer by wednesday evening, with se gusts over 30 knots
possible, especially at kcle and keri.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr will
continue through friday.

&&

.marine...
the main weather concerns with this marine forecast update is
the potential for rough conditions to develop on lake erie
late tomorrow afternoon through thursday. there will be a
strong low pressure system deepening to around 988 mb and moving
through the eastern great lakes region. before then, winds are
expected to be southwesterly to southerly for the rest of this
afternoon 10 to 20 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet. winds will
increase from the south 20 to 30 knots wednesday evening and
overnight. there is some potential for winds to reach up to
gales of 35 knots for a few hours as the strong surface low
tracks just north of lake erie wednesday night. winds will
become southwesterly to westerly 20 to 30 knots thursday. higher
waves of 4 to 9 feet are expected wednesday evening through
thursday. higher end small craft advisories are very likely
needed. gales may be possible and will be watching future trends
in model guidance. there will also be the potential for water
levels to drop to near or just below the critical low water mark
for safe marine navigation on the western basin of lake erie
wednesday night into thursday. westerly winds of 10 to 20 knots
will continue over the lake friday and saturday with waves of 1
to 4 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...garuckas
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 162313
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
713 pm edt tue jun 16 2026

.key messages...

- a slight risk for severe weather exists for this afternoon and
evening with damaging winds and hail the main threats, but a
tornado cannot be ruled out.

- a moderate risk for severe weather exists for wednesday into
wednesday night. damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes,
and localized flooding are all potential threats.

- a moderate swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches is
present today and a high swim risk appears likely for
thursday.

- dry weather returns for friday and saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1225 pm edt tue jun 16 2026

pretty active period over the next 36 hours or so in terms of
strong to severe thunderstorms. for today`s portion of events
there will be two spurts. the first one will consist of showers
and embedded thunderstorms accompanying a shortwave with a weak
quasi-boundary which are currently pushing eastward across the
area. the main impact up to this point has been showers with a
few rumbles of thunder. the second part will be scattered
thunderstorms developing mainly in the wake of the first burst
with increase solar insolation behind this first band. this will
help to increase the sb cape values to around 1200 j/kg. the one
thing to monitor will be weak lake breeze boundaries and a
developing warm frontal boundary approaching from the west that
will help provide storms with increased shear and helicity.
shear values around 25 to 45 knots and helicity values around
100 to 150 m2/s2 will be possible and sufficient to allow for
strong to severe storms to develop. mid level lapse rate values
of 7 to 7.5 deg/km will be available. a limiting factor will be
the lack of a stronger forcing mechanism and will lead to a
more scattered nature in the storms. gusty winds and hail will
be the main threats but there is still the possibility for a
tornado or two.

for tomorrow, warm air advection will continue and will see
increasing dew points from the 50s to the 60s. a warm frontal
boundary will be pushing north and eastward and putting us in
the warm sector. as this boundary pushes northward showers will
be on the increase with even a few embedded thunderstorms after
around 10 am edt. a few of the storms in this time period could
become strong to severe but should remain fairly tame. by the
afternoon, a cold front will be pushing eastward across ia/il/wi
and approach our western parts of the cwa after 3-4 pm edt and
will push eastward through the area by 2 am edt. this will be
the main event.

the ingredients look to be well in place and a very hearty mid-
level flow around 60 knots with a low level jet expecting to
strengthen into the evening. this really is a rare type set-up
especially for this time of the year with that much mid-level
flow in this synoptic pattern. sb cape values progged around
1500 j/kg with bulk shear values of 50 to 60 kts. lapse rates of
8 deg/km and pwats around 2 inches. the forecasted helicity
values will be pretty much off the charts at a 500-600 m2/s2.
effective layer stp values of 10 to 11. wow. all threats are on
the table and spc currently has our area under a moderate to
slight risk for severe thunderstorms and a tornado threat around
15%. the main threats will be very strong gusty winds and large
hail of around 2 inches in diameter and of course tornados,
some becoming long- lived possible. also, a threat of localized
flooding will be possible with the very efficient rainfall with
the elevated pwats, even considering the fast moving nature of
the storms. so this is a potentially very dangerous situation
and one would be wise to use caution and stay very weather aware
tomorrow. make sure to have multiple means of receiving
warnings and keep your cell phones charged up and a fresh set of
batteries in your weather radios in case of power outages.

in the wake of this cold front drier conditions will arrive
with thursday through saturday mainly precipitation free. cooler
temperatures will also continue with highs in the 70s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 713 pm edt tue jun 16 2026

the -tsra risk as ksbn has ended for the near-term. a bulk of
the remaining -tsra will pass south of kfwa.

in the wake of showers and thunderstorms this evening, dry
weather is anticipated overnight with decreasing clouds. a robust
severe thunderstorm environment is being monitored closely for
wednesday. high resolution guidance is in strong agreement a
decaying line of thunderstorms after 12z will evolve into a
renewed line of storms. all hazards will be possible, especially
at kfwa. perhaps only slightly less confident at ksbn where new
convection could develop just se of ksbn.

additionally, late in the period, some guidance has hints of a wake
low developing.this would cause a period of 40+ knot wind gusts behind
any line of storms.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
736 pm edt tue jun 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely this evening.
isolated storms may be strong to severe.

- widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected wednesday evening
and wednesday night. heavy rainfall is likely which may lead to
localized flooding, especially in urban areas. the potential also
exists for severe weather, mainly south of i-94.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the week
and next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

passage of an upper-level disturbance resulted in the development
and passage of scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms, mostly focused across kfnt and especially kmbs.
scattered to widespread coverage will continue for the next couple of
hours across kmbs as the upper-level disturbance continues to swing
across the state. additional shower and thunderstorm activity is now
located across far southwest michigan aligned with a cold front. this
front will continue to push east tonight which brings the renewed
chance for showers and thunderstorms for the metro terminals up to
kptk. however, as the front arrives, diurnal heating and thus
instability will be waning, which lowers confidence that ongoing
thunderstorms will hold as the activity crosses into southeast
michigan. as a result, will highlight this uncertainty with a prob30
group.

overnight, residual moisture from this activity and clearing trends
could help support and sustain some low-level stratus by the mid to
late morning hours. confidence is low across the metro region
regarding the development of stratus given the more sparse activity
today , but confidence increases farther north, aligned with better
coverage.

d21/dtw convection...there is a chance (30%) for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms favored 01z-03z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5kft overnight.

* low for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm edt tue jun 16 2026

discussion...

active weather pattern the next two days with multiple rounds of
thunderstorms likely and potential for flooding rains, especially
wednesday evening.

a look at the visible satellite early this afternoon shows the
system responsible over northern wi with the attendant cold front
extending to the south while a prefrontal fgen band exists over
eastern lake mi producing showers. locally over se mi some high
based showers initiated early with the lack of a cap but little
morning cape and shear prevented much from developing. heading into
the afternoon, a 30 knot low level jet will lift ahead of the
prefrontal band while a pocket of 500mb vorticity pivots around
reaching southern mi at the same time. this mostly seems to come
together over sw mi, hence spc upgraded that region to a slight risk
while leaving part of se mi in a marginal risk. sbcape is forecast
to top out around 500 j/kg with some bulk shear around 30 knots.
we`ll have to see how upstream convection can hold together as it
approaches for increased severe chances. dry low levels showing up
in the soundings as an inverted v, supporting the higher bases
convection will also support wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph as the most
probable severe threat this afternoon mainly from 20-00z.

wednesday still garners much attention with the unseasonably strong
low driving through the region. some changes/questions of note to
the setup in terms of location of the low/occlusion which will
dictate severe chances in se mi. models still support a strong mid
level trough over mn/wi with a sub 990mb surface low under it. a
strong mid level wave will rotate through the base of the trough
across southern lake mi while a very strong 60+ knot low level jet
racing northward just ahead of the wave through il and into southern
mi just before wednesday evening (around 00z thursday). the strong
lift ahead of the surface low will cause the system to occlude and
refocus a center over southern mi or northern in. at this point,
most of the support is to push it east near the state line. a
portion of the low looks to get rotated up through the thumb, while
a potential mcs diving e-se helps drive the instability axis
southward, keeping the bulk out of se mi. strong lift with
impressive southwesterly moisture advection will bring pwats around
2 inches into se mi on the lead isentropic arm, with the low and
associated thunderstorms passing through mainly in the 21-06z
window. severe weather chances remain limited as we expect the bulk
of the instability and surface features to remain to our south. spc
day2 outlook has remained relatively unchanged focusing on the
better setup south of the border. there remains a window around 00-
04z when a narrow wedge of instability slips north through the area
which would be our best chance for severe storms. main threat will
occur mainly south of i-94 but location will be adjusted as we see
where the surface boundaries set up.

confidence in flood risk remains elevated wednesday afternoon into
the overnight. wpc day2 ero continues to include all of se mi in a
slight risk for flooding. the wealth of moisture, strong fgen and
epv, with strong deformation developing just north of the low
center, should produce a wide swath of heavy rain across portions of
se mi. highest totals should occur close to the ohio border with
decreasing amounts heading north. as we get deeper into the suite of
cams, precip totals have had a slight downward trend, possibly
owning to the shorter duration with such a fast moving system.
regardless, confidence remains fairly high for a swath of 1 to 2
inch rainfall totals, with locally higher amounts exceeding 3 inches
possible.

we remain in the broad upper level trough on thursday with the
remnant surface low from mn/wi tracking across central mi thursday
afternoon. steepening low level lapse rates look to be able to
produce a round of low topped showers early thursday. mid level
trough feature should pass to the east, ending the support for
showers overnight but could see another window of diurnally forced
showers on friday, more limited in coverage.

marine...

a low pressure system and its attendant cold front gradually work
through the central great lakes from west to east, supporting
continued showers and thunderstorms into the evening and early
overnight hours. an isolated threat for hazardous wind gusts and
large hail remains. a brief break in activity emerges during the
daylight hours wednesday as ridging aloft quickly passes through. a
secondary stronger low pressure system follows in quick succession
late wednesday into thursday. more intense convection is possible
with this system, capable of damaging winds, and to a lesser extent,
waterspouts and large hail. prevailing southwesterly gradient winds
accompanying the low climb above 25 knots, once the center
approaches lake huron late wednesday night. this eventually backs
flow northwesterly, based on the northeast trajectory of the system
across the huron basin. gusts to gales remain possible, mainly for
the southern waterways, as the strongest llj winds of 40-50 knots
pass through the lowest 3 kft. shallow mixing profiles appear to
exhibit only meager growth, maintaining uncertainty with the
potential/duration of gales. opted to forego a gale watch for lake
st. clair and western erie, but will reevaluate during the evening
update. also, cannot completely rule out gales extending into
southern lake huron, too. post-frontal winds decline a bit and
organize out of the west-northwest on thursday, remaining so through
at least saturday. additional chances exist for showers and a few
thunderstorms over the weekend as cyclonic flow persists overhead.

hydrology...

numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and
evening. most areas will receive a quarter inch or less of rainfall,
but training of storms over the same areas will lead to totals
nearing an inch. flooding is not likely today.

a seasonably strong low pressure system will then arrive late
wednesday, producing widespread rainfall with numerous heavy
thunderstorms through wednesday night. rainfall totals ranging
between 1 and 2 inches are likely for much of se mi, and isolated
areas may receive over 3 inches. most of this rainfall is expected
to occur in 6 hours or less, currently centered between 8pm and 2am.
this rainfall may pose a flash flooding threat, mainly in urban
areas, and rises on rivers and streams can be expected.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
hydrology....tf/drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.