Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
803
fxus61 kcle 232006
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
306 pm est sun nov 23 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure returns tonight into monday before pushing east as low
pressure arrives from the west. this potent system will move across
the central plains into the great lakes region monday night
with impacts continuing through the rest of the week.

&&

.near term /through monday night/...
high pressure builds back overhead tonight leading to a dry
conditions and calm winds overnight. can`t rule out some patchy fog
early monday morning before dissipating shortly after daybreak.
otherwise, expect for quiet conditions through monday evening as the
surface high gradually moves east towards the mid-atlantic region
while a surface low approaches from the west. this large low
pressure system will move from the central plains into the great
lakes region beginning monday night. the first wave of upper level
energy associated with the surface low will move over the local area
monday night allowing for rain showers to approach from the west.

it will remain cooler tonight with overnight lows in the upper 20s.
highs on monday will warm into the lower 50s with overnight lows
settling in the mid 30s to low 40s on monday night.

&&

.short term /tuesday through wednesday night/...
the weather through the short term will be driven by the
aforementioned surface low and its associated shortwaves aloft. the
bulk of the rain with the first piece of energy will fall on tuesday
as the surface low continues to push north into the great lakes
region. overall rainfall amounts remain unchanged with rain totals
through tuesday evening of 0.25-0.50 inches. high temperatures will
remain in the 50s areawide on tuesday. we`ll likely see a lull in
precipitation tuesday night as the shortwave exits to the east but
will keep some lower pops in the forecast to account for any
isolated to scattered showers. overnight lows will settle in the
40s.

by wednesday the surface low will drag a cold front east across the
eastern great lakes region ushering in a much cooler weather
pattern. fairly good model agreement in the cold front crossing
during daylight hours on wednesday which will bring another surge of
rainfall across the area. high temperatures are expected to rise to
the upper 40s to low 50s ahead of the cold front before rapidly
dropping below freezing wednesday evening behind the cold front.
this will allow for rain showers to quickly transition to snow
showers wednesday evening. additionally, westerly winds and gusts
will also increase along and behind the cold front. current nbm
probabilities of wind gusts greater than 35 mph peak between 60-80%
along the i-75 corridor wednesday afternoon and early evening. low
temperatures wednesday night drop into the mid 20s behind the cold
front.

&&

.long term /thursday through sunday/...
by the long term period the forecast turns its focus on lake
effect snow impacting the traditional snowbelt of northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania. medium to long range deterministic
models are continuing to align and show 850mb temperatures
plummeting to -12c with some uncertainty remaining on mean
layer flow. with this forecast package long range guidance
continues to show an initial period of southwesterly to west-
southwesterly flow wednesday night into thursday shifting
northwesterly by friday. subtle differences in the final
placement of the upper level low will ultimately determine the
final placement of lake effect snow bands over northeast
ohio/northwest pa and/or western new york. for now, there is
enough confidence to continue with pops of 60-80% in the
forecast thursday into friday. will continue to monitor the
evolution of the low pressure system and lake effect snow
potential during this timeframe given the heightened impact on
holiday travel. lake effect snow will exit the region on
saturday as an upper level ridge builds overhead from the west.
there will be a brief dry window before another system
approaches on saturday evening.

much colder through the long term with highs in the low to mid 30s
and overnight lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. temperatures may
warm into the lower 40s on sunday.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
lingering mvfr at keri will dissipate within the next hour or
two as drier air works into the region associated with building
high pressure. this will leave vfr in place at all terminals
through monday, with just occasional cirrus as the high drifts
toward the mid atlantic coast setting up return flow and warm
air advection.

w to wnw winds will continue to gust to 15-25 knots at times
this afternoon, with the strongest gusts occurring at keri.
winds will quickly diminish this evening and become light and
variable tonight before turning solidly s at 5-10 knots monday.

outlook...non-vfr chances return monday night through
wednesday in rain showers. non vfr continues with chances for
snow in the snowbelt of ne ohio and nw pa thursday and friday.

&&

.marine...
winds will slowly diminish on the lake this evening, so the
small craft advisories should be good to expire at midnight.
this will leave light and variable winds in place tonight,
becoming s at 5-15 knots monday through tuesday as high pressure
slides off the mid atlantic coast ahead of deepening low
pressure lifting into the upper midwest. winds will become wsw
and increase to 20-35 knots by wednesday through thursday as the
low continues to deepen and progresses from the northern great
lakes through quebec, so the threat of gales is increasing
wednesday into thursday along with at least 9 to 13 foot waves
in the central and eastern basins. w winds will gradually
diminish to 15-25 knots thursday night and friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for lez145>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
642
fxus63 kiwx 231935
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
235 pm est sun nov 23 2025

.key messages...

- continued seasonably mild with highs in the 50s through
tuesday.

- light rain developing monday night then ending tuesday except for
lake effect rain showers.

- turning much colder for thanksgiving day through the end of
the week with highs in the 30s and wind chills in the teens
and 20s.

- additional chances for precipitation exist through the holiday
weekend, but confidence remains low on specific concerns and
impacts.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 233 pm est sun nov 23 2025

a very energetic pattern will take shape this week, with large
temperature swings, multiple rounds of precipitation, and windy
conditions impacting much of the upcoming thanksgiving weekend/ many
finer details remain to be resolved, but at least some signals
already exist to help focus the main time frames of concern.

the forecast period will start dry and seasonably warm temperatures
through monday as high pressure drifts across the region. a closed
upper low, currently over the four corners region, will drift ene
and slowly deamplify, reaching missouri by 6z tue. ahead of this
feature, broad sfc low pressure will interact with sufficient
moisture to bring a period of rain to the area monday evening into
early tuesday. not expecting a lot of qpf, nor any sort of wintry
mix as the gulf remains cut off and thermal profiles remain above
freezing.

as this first wave moves ne and continues to weaken, a northern
stream trough will dig into the plains and deepen as the left front
quadrant of a 120+ kt jet streak rounds the trough. the
aformentioned sfc low will quickly deepen as the trough approaches,
eventually tracking from western wi at 00z wed to ne of lake
superior by 00z thu. as it does, strong caa will commence across the
plains and move rapidly se and overspread the area tuesday night
into wednesday. the timing of the caa will result in steady or
falling temperatures wednesday along with a chance for some
scattered rain/snow showers along the front.

windy and much colder conditions will dominate the start of the
holiday weekend. an overall w to nw flow looks to setup across lake
michigan, resulting in chances for lake effect snow showers across
our michigan counties. it remains too early to determine specific
impacts, but some travel impacts are possible late wednesday into
thanksgiving day.

the deep upper low will continue ne into ontario over the weekend,
with the next wave of interest diving south into the western us and
linger in the sw states. as it does an increasing sw flow will begin
to establish late this weekend and persist into next week. this will
allow a return of gulf moisture to the region, which will interact
with one or more disturbances ejecting from the trough. a baroclinic
zone will setup somewhere near or north of the ohio river with the
first round of precipitation as early as saturday, followed by 1 or
more additional rounds into early next week. thermal profiles are
all over the place, dictated by the location of this boundary.
suffice to say, some travel issues could materialize for the end of
the holiday weekend. it is far too early to discuss what may occur,
but monitoring of later forecasts is certainly recommended.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1214 pm est sun nov 23 2025

vfr conditions are expected through this taf period with mainly
clear skies. west to northwest winds around 10 kts this
afternoon will shift southwest and become light tonight.
southerly winds around 10 kts expected on monday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
722
fxus63 kdtx 231729
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1229 pm est sun nov 23 2025

.key messages...

- breezy conditions develop today as northwest wind increases
to gusts near 30 mph this afternoon.

- above normal temperatures highlight the early week period along
with rain showers that move in late monday night and continue
through tuesday and tuesday night.

- a strong cold front is projected for late tuesday night and
wednesday morning that could produce 40 mph wind gusts.

- lake effect snow showers ensue wednesday night through
thanksgiving day, and possibly into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

gusty post-frontal w to wnw wind to 20-25 kt continues through the
afternoon before diminishing this evening with the loss of daytime
boundary layer mixing and the arrival of ridging associated with
ohio valley high pressure. as the ridge axis passes east after
midnight, wind direction backs to southerly before shifting to ssw
at around 10-15 kt for daytime monday. prevailing vfr favored
through the period, with mid/high cloud arriving from the upper
midwest overnight. can`t rule out some patchy ground fog monday
morning but the inbound cloud and a weak gradient wind offer very
low confidence and preclude a fog mention in the taf.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 am est sun nov 23 2025

discussion...

low pressure in northern ontario is pulling a cold front across
lower mi as of the 4 am forecast issuance which is expected to exit
into ontario leading up to sunrise. the front brings just a glancing
shot of colder air into the area this morning and then the low level
thermal trough shifts eastward leaving a quick transition back to
warm advection by afternoon. the result is temperatures that end up
a few degrees warmer than yesterday as nearly full sun helps boost
readings slightly above normal in the upper 40s to around 50.
westerly wind gusts near 30 mph end up being the weather highlight
this afternoon into the early evening.

warm advection continues tonight but is only able to produce
thickening high clouds this far south across lower mi. model
soundings indicate a deep layer of dry air below 700 mb that will
render any moisture aloft to virga tonight into monday morning.
continued mild sw flow in the low levels raises temperatures further
during the day under partly sunny sky. widespread guidance highs in
the lower 50s look good with a few mid 50s at the upper end of the
range, readings that will likely not be reached again in the
foreseeable future given the rain expected tuesday followed by the
mid/late week cold surge.

today`s four corners cut off low pressure system becomes the subject
of the tuesday rain event that actually begins late monday night.
agreement is good among the deterministic models on a solution that
brings the system steadily across the southern/central plains where
it connects with a cold front trailing a northern stream short wave
in northern ontario. midwest surface low development then directs
strong gulf moisture transport into the ohio valley and great lakes
where the upper level jet also aligns ageostrophic forcing favorably
to enhance the pattern for widespread rain showers across lower mi
through tuesday.

low pressure development transitions back into the upper midwest
tuesday night as the next northern stream mid/upper level wave moves
into the northern plains. the new 00z deterministic models maintain
good agreement on solutions that strongly deepen surface low
pressure as it moves from the upper midwest toward central lake
superior by wednesday morning. this is also in good agreement with
the ensemble systems that show similar mean depth and position while
also exhibiting lower/better spread among members by 12z wednesday.
this lends confidence to predictability on the system as it sends a
strong cold front across lower mi tuesday night into wednesday
morning. precipitation is still all rain along and ahead of the cold
front followed by the mid level dry slot as cold air crashes through
lower mi wednesday morning on westerly wind approaching advisory
level gusts. the bulk moisture and thermal profile within the larger
scale system then support a ramp up of lake effect in a wind field
that easily carries activity into se mi wednesday night into
thanksgiving day.

marine...

low pressure over northern ontario will continue to track east into
southern quebec to this afternoon. with strong high pressure moving
over the central plains, there is enough of a pressure gradient and
cold advection to support a period of gales over northern lake huron
today. the peak winds look to be mid day. the surface low is progged
to slowly weaken, thus gusts should hold in the 35 to 40 knot range.

outside of northern lake huron, winds look to gust in the 20-30 knot
range, with small craft advisories continuing for all of the lake
huron nearshore. ridge of high pressure quickly builds in sunday
evening, allowing for winds to subside sunday night below headline
thresholds. light to moderate southerly return flow then develops
early next week. however, the strong low tracking northeast through
the western great lakes and into northern ontario will drag in the
coldest air of the season thus far. snow squalls and northwest gales
appear likely in wednesday-thursday in the time period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz361-362.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz422-442-
443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...bt
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.