Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
236
fxus61 kcle 311839
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
239 pm edt fri jul 31 2026

.what has changed...
current forecast remains on track compared to previous forecast
cycle.

&&

.key messages...
1) shower and thunderstorm chances increase across the area late
saturday through sunday. heavy rainfall possible at times with
strong to severe storms sunday afternoon.

2) unsettled weather pattern for the first half of next week,
with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

aside from a few stray showers that could develop across
portions of north central and northeast ohio later this
afternoon into early evening, dry conditions expected until
shower chances increase through the day on saturday. a
positively tilted upper trough/closed low and attendant surface
low pressure will slowly move east from the mid mississippi
valley into the ohio valley saturday through sunday.

shower and storm chances increase late tonight into early
saturday morning from west to east. the best chances for precip
during the daytime will generally be west of the i-71 corridor,
particularity in the far southwest portion of the forecast area
from findlay to marion. precip chances will increase across the
rest of the area saturday night as the low level jet ramps up
and convergence increases across the area. heavy rainfall will
be possible with any convection, as pwat values increase to
1.75-2.00 inches across the area. hi-res guidance seems to focus
the heaviest precip west of the area on the northwest flank of
the surface low, but this precip maxima could sneak into the
i-75 corridor by early sunday morning depending on the evolution
of the system. wpc is highlighting the far western part of the
area in a slight risk of excessive rainfall saturday and
saturday night.

as the upper trough amplifies over the region sunday, mid/upper
flow will increase a bit on the downstream side of the trough.
shower and storm activity will impact the forecast area as the
surface low slowly pivots eastward. wpc continues to highlight a
slight risk of excessive rainfall for much of the forecast area
on sunday with the combination of slow moving/training storms
and intense rainfall rates leading to an increase in flash flood
potential. spc is highlighting areas east of the i-77 corridor
with a marginal risk of severe weather. deep layer effective
shear of 30-35 kts during the afternoon, combined with mlcape
values of 1000-1500 j/kg, could lead to some strong to severe
thunderstorms as the convection tracks east out of the area into
the evening. damaging winds would be possible, and a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out with low lcls and somewhat favorable
hodographs.

key message 2...
confidence increasing in unsettled weather across the area
monday through wednesday, as aforementioned mid/upper trough
cuts off over the ohio valley monday. this will bring diurnally
driven shower/storm chances through wednesday before the low
fills and lifts northeast into new england ahead of a northern
stream shortwave moving into the northern great lakes region.
this will also keep conditions humid and temperatures near
seasonal normals. areas that see heavy rainfall over the weekend
could be vulnerable to an increased risk of flash flooding with
any slow moving or training storms during this period.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions are expected this evening with cumulus clouds
around 4-6kft lingering through the rest of the
afternoon/evening. a few light are possible near kmfd, kcak, and
kyng over the next couple hours.

a low pressure system approaches from the southwest, with rain
showers overspreading the area west to east starting near the
i-75 corridor saturday morning and continuing across the rest of
the area through the afternoon/evening hours. there may be
periodic non-vfr conditions with heavier showers but prevailing
conditions should be mainly vfr still. lightning isn`t expected
until the late afternoon hours of saturday, and even then the
probability is low at this point (~20%).

a lake breeze brings northerly winds to kcle and keri this
afternoon, otherwise light and variable winds through the
overnight hours. southeast winds develop saturday morning and
approach 10 knots by saturday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in showers and thunderstorms are
expected saturday afternoon through sunday night. scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue monday through wednesday,
primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
low pressure approaches from the west, potentially moving
eastward south of or across lake erie sunday into monday. there
is good deal of uncertainty with this forecast update regarding
the low pressure system track, which greatly influences the wind
and waves forecast for saturday night through monday. there is
moderate confidence that there will be a period of east to
northeast flow sometime saturday night through sunday, followed
by higher confidence in northeast to north flow on monday. it`s
becomingly increasingly likely that there will be a period of
15-20 knot onshore flow with waves in the 3 to 5 ft range,
especially east the island towards the cleveland area, but there
is a lot of uncertainty in exact timing. we will have to
continue to monitor for possibly dangerous conditions for
swimmers and small craft, especially in the central basin of
lake erie.

conditions on lake erie are likely to improve by midweek.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...03
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
319 pm edt fri jul 31 2026

.key messages...

- chance of showers and storms increase from west to east
tonight into saturday morning (60-90%). some areas may
experience a lull in rain chances saturday morning into early
afternoon, but scattered to numerous showers with some
thunderstorms are expected saturday afternoon into at least
sunday morning. widespread severe storms are not expected, but
an isolated strong to severe storm is possible saturday
afternoon and early evening with isolated wind gusts of 50 to
60 mph possible, especially south of us route 24.

- heavy rain is possible saturday into sunday morning.
confidence remains low regrading placement of highest rainfall
amounts with greatest chances of storm total rainfall amounts
in excess of 2 inches (~ 50%) along and south of us route 30
across northern indiana. localized rainfall amounts in excess
of 4 inches are possible where any persistent thunderstorm
activity can develop. the greatest flood risk is expected
saturday night into early sunday.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along
the southern berrien county, mi and la porte county, in late
saturday afternoon and evening. breaking waves and currents
are expected.

- there is a high swim risk for beaches along both la porte
county, in and all of berrien county, mi shorelines on sunday.
life- threatening waves and currents are expected. those
planning to visit the beach should stay out of the water.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 309 pm edt fri jul 31 2026

...potential of heavy rainfall with greatest concern saturday
night/early sunday....

the primary forecast concern for this forecast will be potential of
heavy rainfall, with greatest impacts possible saturday night into
sunday am.

some elevated moisture return is approaching the in/il stateline
this afternoon downstream of a stronger upper level short wave
tracking across central iowa. some fairly dry mid level air
preceding this zone of moisture advection should limit rainfall
through late this afternoon with this initial elevated forcing. a
more robust low level theta-e ridge will build in from northeast
illinois after 03z this evening. some question as to how strongly
forced the setup will be late this evening, with potential of
more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms passably
holding off until late overnight hours as upper jet streak
noses into southern great lakes with deeper moisture profiles in
place. some trimming of pops may be needed this evening across
central/eastern portions of the area as initial mid level
moisture advection forcing outruns better upper support. did
delay thunder mention a bit this evening with lapse rates
looking meager as mid level moistening occurs, with greater
thunder potential likely holding off until after 06z.

saturday through early sunday afternoon still appears to be most
potentially impactful period of this forecast with heavy rainfall
potential the first order concern followed by some marginal severe
threat south of us 24. guidance has exhibited some dramatic shifts
over past few days in the handling of mass fields with this system
which appears to be in large part in difficulty handling the
location and strength of the associated diabatic pv anomaly across
the mid ms valley. overall trend in 12z guidance (although still
with large variance) has been toward an initially weaker low/mid
level diabatic pv anomaly and preference to more of a southward
suppression of low level reflection into west central indiana by
midday saturday. some indications of a weak mid level dry slot
feature punching into the area saturday morning could provide a
lull in greater shower coverage, but stronger upper support/dpva
and northward migration of 500-1200 j/kg mlcape axis should
allow for convective redevelopment in the afternoon. the
downstream low level jet into east central indiana may be a bit
more subdued as a result of the initially more suppressed
evolution tonight which could yield a bit lower of a severe
threat from earlier indications saturday afternoon. no
significant changes noted in spc day 2 outlook with marginal
risk (mainly wind) across far southeast areas. some locally
heavy rainfall is possible saturday afternoon with greatest
potential across the south/southeast where greater instability
should reside and where some enhanced low level convergence
from low level jet could be situated.

the biggest potential impact with the system for this weekend is
beginning to focus more on hydrology. pwat`s of 1.75 to 2.00 inches
are expected to wrap around mid level height minimum into the local
area saturday into saturday night. the track of the mid/upper height
minimum across central indiana and sharpening of low level trough
axis should allow a deformation-forced region to form saturday
night into early sunday am. very strong low level moisture
convergence is possible from the combination of the weak
southerly flow across the south and more robust easterly flow
across the southern great lakes to maximize precip efficiency.
warm cloud depths are also expected to be in excess of 12k feet.
some higher res guidance depicts an axes of very heavy rainfall
saturday night an storm total rainfall amounts in excess of 5
inches in area of strongest deformation forcing. some
consideration was given this afternoon to issuing a flood watch
for saturday night into sunday am. upon collaboration, have
opted to hold off on flood watch with this issuance given
relatively dry antecedent conditions and very high run to run
volatility in recent guidance with key low level mass features
which will affect strength/position of deformation forcing.
saturday night/sunday am does increasingly look like a period to
watch for hydro concerns however.

forecast confidence is below normal for early next week with
guidance struggling in how to handle residuals of the mid/upper
level system across ohio valley in weak steering flow/blocking
pattern. did accept blended guidance trend of maintaining pops into
middle of the week but this will be subject to change given to low
predictability of this pattern. a dampened upstream ridge by the
middle of next week via a series of pacific waves will allow
potential of some renewed theta-e advection in wake of
decaying/departing upper low with additional chances of storms
wed/thu and trend back to seasonable temperatures.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 228 pm edt fri jul 31 2026

our dry air today is overtaken by moisture as a low pressure system
approaches causing cigs to drop into mvfr territory and
potentially even ifr later tonight into early saturday along
with rain chances. the eastward extent of mvfr comes with some
more uncertainty for fwa as there`s a chance they don`t end up
with mvfr at all during this period. have hedged towards some
with this issuance, but it possible they get removed for the
next issuance. southerly winds become more easterly overnight
with 10 kt sustained winds becoming more common for saturday.
there could be some severe weather in the vicinity of fwa
saturday afternoon, but the extent of instability appears in
question. given the extent of the moisture column and the low
level turning of winds, a brief spinup may be possible, but this
environment would seem more difficult to create other types of
severe weather hazards.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm saturday to 5 am edt monday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
239 pm edt fri jul 31 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast
saturday and sunday.

- heavy rainfall is likely somewhere over northern indiana,
southeast lower michigan or northwest ohio saturday night and sunday
morning. there is still uncertainty in where this axis will develop.
it could reach as far north as ann arbor to port huron and bring
flooding concerns, especially over urban areas.

- dry weather returns on monday, but it may become unsettled again
for much of next week with chances of showers and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.discussion...

last vestige of the quiet and dry conditions remain in place over
southeast mi this afternoon and surface high slides to the east.
although, there may be a shower near the lake huron lake breeze late
this afternoon and early evening. region`s weather will be
increasingly influenced by a few upper waves from il extending
southwest, all in advance of the main upper low over southern
mn/northern ia.

clouds increase this evening ahead of these features first, and then
enough moisture advection in the mid layers with one of those waves
in the southwest flow will bring chances of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms around and after midnight for the northwest
half of the forecast area...mainly northwest of a ozw to sandusky
line.

the forecast area will continue to be on the edge of the best
forcing of the upper trof on saturday as a cold front slides across
northern mi. a surface low will move into in in response to the
upper trof with a warm frontal feature extending to the east into
oh. closer to these surface and low level forcing features will be
the best chances of showers and a few thunderstorms to develop and
will have the highest pops in the tri cities and down near the oh
border. regardless, it will be cloudy and humid with temps below late
july averages.

the real impact part of this system occurs saturday night and sunday
morning as the upper trof moves over mi, in and oh. pwat increases
to 1.75+ inches. mid layer instability increases with around 500
j/kg available, enough for convection and a chance of thunderstorms.
all of these environmental conditions will be greater over northern
in, far southeast lower mi (arb to phn on south) and nw oh. the
question for the heavy rain potential will be where exactly the
deformation axis setup a potential shars type of rainfall event.
model camps are split across the mi state line, but the potential is
high enough to start messaging the heavy rain threat through dss
channels. will hold off on any flood watches since the peak of the
event is still around 36 hours away to allow for some consensus on
that deformation axis to setup.

by sunday afternoon, the system is slowly moving east and expect
some improving conditions. those will range from partial clearing in
midland county to the ending of the showers in detroit and monroe.

the extended forecast is looking a little more unsettled for next
week. that upper trof now looks to cutoff over the upper oh river
valley on sunday night and monday. while we will be far enough away
on monday to be dry with partly sunny conditions, the cutoff low
will slowly migrate north on tuesday and wednesday bringing some
chances for mainly diurnal showers. later wednesday into thursday,
the next wave and cold front settle through lower mi and stalls near
the southern border with additional waves in the zonal upper flow.
this will bring some periodic chance for showers and storms late next
week. all of this will have temps at or below early august averages.

&&

.marine...

high pressure that has influenced the region over the past few days
will continue to track off to the east this afternoon. quiet marine
conditions will continue through this afternoon for the eastern
great lakes. lighter winds overnight will slowly increase and turn
northeasterly saturday as a low pressure system currently over the
upper mississippi river valley shifts eastward towards the ohio
valley. with the northeast winds, this will lead to increasing waves
through the saginaw bay this weekend. there will be chances for
showers and thunderstorm later tonight through sunday as the low and
frontal features push across the region.

&&

.hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are
forecast late saturday into sunday as a low pressure system tracks
into the ohio valley. the increasingly moisture laden environment
will support moderate to heavy rainfall rates. there is relatively
high confidence in rainfall totals between 0.25" and 0.75".
considerable uncertainty exists regarding placement and magnitude of
the heaviest rainfall, but low probability (<30%) exists for
rainfall totals in excess of 2.00" by late sunday. this may lead to
flooding concerns this weekend, particularly in urban areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1258 pm edt fri jul 31 2026

aviation...

the slow moving storm system over the mid and upper-mississippi
valley will advance into the region tonight and affect the weather
across the airspace through saturday. winds will take on an easterly
character as the surface low moves to the south of the area. low
level moisture will remain somewhat limited through saturday morning
- thus clouds will slowly gather then lower. elevated base showers
are expected to dot the landscape late tonight and early saturday -
with the best chances being across the northern terminals. an
increase in coverage and intensity of showers and a few embedded
storms appears to hold off until later saturday afternoon and into
the evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through tonight. a
low chance of storms exists saturday, with the greatest chance
during the mid/late afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and saturday.

* low for thunderstorms saturday afternoon


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...rbp
marine.......ss
hydrology....rbp
aviation.....mann


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.