Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
237 am edt tue jul 28 2026

.what has changed...
still tracking the evolution of the convection across the cwa this
early pre-dawn morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) post mcs environment with cold front coming through today and lake
enhanced showers tonight.

2) high pressure for the end of the week, but becoming unsettled again
over the weekend.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
will be focusing this part of the forecast in the wake of the
ongoing convective activity in the great lakes. low pressure to
shift to the east of the cwa today with a cold front coming through
across lake erie by 18z today. expect some additional convective
activity along the cold front but the possibility for severe at this
point should be greatly diminished. storms that form will be
fighting dry air aloft and limited instability, but thunder should
still be expected in a scattered nature as the cold front tracks
through. from there, the whole stacked low pressure system to the
east will strengthen, and create a brief period where weak trough
axes rotating through in the cyclonic flow and cool air over the
warm lake will produce lake enhanced showers late this evening into
tonight. expecting a small amount of near surface based cape capped
at around 800mb with an inversion at that level. high pressure
building from the west will shut this potential for showers down
fairly quickly.

key message 2...
high pressure and dry weather with a cooler airmass settles into
place for the end of the week. conditions will begin to become
unsettled over the weekend with a 500mb trough moving into the great
lakes via the upper mississippi valley accompanied with an inverted
surface trough from surface low pressure over the lower mississippi
valley. will expect convective chances to increase with gradually
rising dewpoints once again and temperatures back into the low to
mid 80s.


&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
an area of strong to severe convection is currently pushing
southeast across lower michigan into northern indiana and
northwest ohio. expect reduced ceilings and visibilities as this
area of convection moves over terminals over the next few hours.
have timed out tempo groups at all terminals in the timeframe
where there remains highest confidence in tsra impacts to taf
sites (roughly between ~06z/tue and ~10z/tue). behind this area
of convection expect widespread ceiling reductions to low-end
mvfr with periods of ifr through late morning. conditions will
gradually improve this afternoon with western terminals
improving to vfr by 18z/tue. expect lingering mvfr ceilings
across northeast ohio and northwest pa terminals as a trough
lingers across lake erie and will give way to lake-induced
cloud cover/rain showers.

southwest winds 5-10 knots continue overnight tonight. behind
the convection and a surface cold front winds will turn
northwesterly and increase to 10-13 knots with widespread gusts
20-25 knots through this evening.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings and scattered showers through
wednesday across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
non-vfr possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on
saturday.

&&

.marine...
scattered thunderstorms will push southeast across lake erie
through early this morning with locally higher winds and waves
possible. otherwise, elevated southwesterly to westerly winds
15-20 knots will become northerly at 15-25 knots by daybreak as
a cold front sinks south across the lake. onshore flow will
allow for wave heights in the central and eastern basins to
build to 4-7 feet. highest winds and waves will be in the
central basin. small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements remain in effect to highlight the timeframe of
highest risk to small craft and beach goers through wednesday
evening.

northwest winds decrease to 10-15 knots thursday as high
pressure approaches from the west. light and variable flow
returns friday with largely offshore light winds anticipated
into the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
late wednesday night for ohz009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
wednesday afternoon for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 2 am edt
thursday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
wednesday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
233 am edt tue jul 28 2026

.key messages...

- widely scattered showers and storms will continue over the
next few hours with small hail and gusty winds.

- patchy dense fog possible this morning around daybreak.

- dry and seasonable tuesday through thursday.

- high swim risk today for southeast lake michigan beaches.
moderate swim risk on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 233 am edt tue jul 28 2026

a surface trough is pivoting through our area currently, sparking a
few widely scattered storms across northern indiana and northwest
ohio. any stronger storms may produce small hail and gusty winds,
although they are expected to stay below severe limits. this
activity is expected to push off to the southeast later this
morning, bringing precipitation chances to an end. a trailing cold
front is currently positioned from milwaukee, wi to muskegon, mi to
alpena, mi and is moving slowly south. this cold front will move
through our area later this morning from 12-18z. before the front
gets here, i would not be surprised if patchy dense fog attempts to
develop from 09-13z this morning. surface observations do not show
any fog yet but we will continue to monitor through the overnight
hours. surface conditions are decently favorable for fog with the
saturated ground from yesterday`s afternoon and evening storms.
winds are still a bit elevated at 5 to 10 mph out of the south and
will eventually switch to be coming from the west closer to
daybreak.

dry air, low humidity, sunshine, and cooler temperatures are
expected behind the front. behind the frontal passage, winds will
switch again to be coming from the north; a strong caa push will
allow for high temperatures to be below normal today only topping
out in the upper 70s to low 80s. locations closer to lake michigan
in northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan may not even get
out of the mid 70s today. the hrrr smoke model depicts wildfire
smoke moving in aloft today from active wildfires burning in the
pacific northwest. have adjusted sky cover up to 35% through
wednesday morning to account for hazy skies. no impacts to surface
air quality or visibilities are expected.

several more seasonable and dry days are expected wednesday and
tuesday as high pressure builds into the great lakes region midweek.
expect highs to gradually warm by a few degrees each day through
friday as the airmass moderates. it will be dry at least through
thursday; an incoming frontal system over the central plains will
move into the mid mississippi river valley by saturday, with
intermittent low chances (20-30%) for rain/storms returning to our
forecast area by late friday and into the weekend.

although it may look like a great day to head out to lake michigan
beaches today, as winds shift to become northerly, dangerous
swimming conditions are expected to develop for southeast lake
michigan beaches on tuesday. buoys already show waves of 2 to 3 feet
offshore of la porte county, in and berrien county, mi. waves will
reach 3 to 5 feet tuesday morning and will continue to build to 5 to
8 feet by this afternoon and evening following the cold frontal
passage. with direct onshore flow, strong structural, rip, and
longshore currents are expected. structural currents will be
especially strong on the north side of piers. stay out of the water
and stay off of the piers! beach hazards statements are in effect
from now through daybreak wednesday for la porte county, in and
berrien county, mi. a moderate swim risk is ahead for wednesday with
waves of 2 to 3 feet, especially in the morning. waves are
anticipated to diminish during the day and a welcome return to much
calmer conditions is ahead for thursday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1255 am edt tue jul 28 2026

several scattered storms are ongoing across northern indiana,
including one that just went through ksbn. the terminals are
largely expected to remain dry for the rest of the overnight as
storms move southeast into northwest ohio. patchy dense fog may
develop closer to daybreak; maintained the previous forecast in
the tafs so will monitor and amend as needed overnight. mvfr
visibilities and ifr visibilities are possible if patchy dense
fog does form. winds are expected to switch from southwest to
west to eventually northwest as a cold front sweeps through
today.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through wednesday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through wednesday morning for miz177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
303 am edt tue jul 28 2026

.key messages...

- drier and a little cooler weather will dominate the mid week
period.

- the next chance of showers/thunderstorms is friday night and
saturday.

&&

.discussion...

a compact mid level short wave along the nose of an upper jet streak
is now exiting to the southeasteast of the forecast area, taking
lingering showers and scattered thunderstorms with it. potent mid
level subsidence in its wake will expand across se mi during the
course of the morning, reflected in model soundings depiction of a
deepening subsidence inversion. sfc dewpoints are shown to remain in
the 60s into the afternoon. this will sustain enough low level
moisture to support a fairly healthy stratus/strato cu field today.
there are at least some indications in nam and hrrr soundings that
some low stratus development in the morning may lend to some
sprinkles or areas of light drizzle before diurnal boundary layer
growth lifts cloud bases. slight cool air advection within northerly
flow and the cloud cover will warrant highs from the mid 70s to lower
80s today.

a push of low level dry air from the northwest will then commence
this evening and persist into wednesday as high pressure begins to
expand into the region from the west. this will be in response to
building heights across the upper midwest and great lakes region.
mid level anticyclonic flow and sfc high pressure will sustain dry
conditions into thursday. the drier air will promote a little better
mixing wed and thurs, with the opportunity for decent radiational
cooling, thus leading to greater diurnal spread in temperatures.

deterministic model solutions show reasonable agreement in
forecasting a deepening of a slow moving mid level wave from the
upper midwest into the mid mississippi/lower ohio valley friday into
this weekend. the extent to which corresponding mid level troughing,
deep layer moisture and diurnal instability impact se mi carries a
little more variability among model ensemble members. probabilistic
guidance has at least trended a little higher with rain chances
friday night and saturday, warranting the chance of
showers/thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.marine...

low pressure departs the lake huron vicinity this morning, dragging
a cold front across the region that allows any convection to taper
off by mid-morning. the low deepens and stalls over the eastern
great lakes today as high pressure quickly builds in over the
western great lakes. this sets up up a tightened pressure gradient
locally that produces gusty north-northwest wind today, tonight, and
into wednesday. winds of 15 to 25 kt will be common, with gusts up
to around 30 kt possible in the southern basin of lake huron. small
craft advisories are in effect due to the winds and increasing wave
heights. the high pressure will slowly advance eastward thursday and
friday, allowing winds to diminish and ensuring dry conditions. the
weekend presents another window for scattered showers and storms
ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1239 am edt tue jul 28 2026

aviation...

increasing thunderstorm coverage expected between now and 08z ahead
of the cold front which has just moved through mbs as of 0430z.
tendency so far has been for storms to remain elevated, limiting
wind potential and leaving just heavy rain and hail potential in
addition to frequent lightning. southern push of the cold front
scours out thunderstorm chances after 08z, but draws in a plume of
low level moisture that at least briefly lowers ceilings. satellite
trends show more clearing than expected over northern lower
michigan, so will monitor if this fills in overnight or if the next
update can trend more optimistic with ceiling heights. whatever
ceilings are in place by daybreak will lift and scatter out toward
vfr by afternoon. northerly flow could get breezy with sustained
winds of 10-15 knots and gusts to 20 knots.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms have blossomed over western
lower michigan over the past hour, leading to a quick increase in
thunder chances since the last forecast update. scattered coverage
and pulsey behavior makes it difficult to target a more specific
time window than the ongoing 05z to 08z prob30/tempo groups. there
is high confidence in coverage across the airspace as a whole, but
low confidence in the impacts to individual terminals. after 08z,
thunder chances diminish as the front pushes through.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less through 08z. high early this
morning, then low by late afternoon.

* high for thunderstorms through 08z.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through this
evening for miz049-055-063.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 4 pm edt wednesday
for lhz421.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm edt wednesday
for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......tf
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.