Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
735
fxus61 kcle 101149
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
749 am edt mon aug 10 2026

.what has changed...
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region through wednesday. confidence is increasing in
most of these rounds at least impacting the southwest half of the
forecast area (roughly along and southwest of a bowling green to
canton line) with the potential for severe thunderstorms and
repeated rounds of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding.
there is still some uncertainty on how much severe weather and
flooding potential there will be in the northeast half of the area,
as this will be dictated by the front location with each batch of
storms that moves through the region.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region through wednesday. each round will have the
potential to bring heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized
flooding, and scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind
gusts as the primary threat.

2) dry weather is expected on thursday and friday, giving a break in
the active pattern. temperatures and humidity will taper off with
high pressure entering the region.

3) unsettled weather may return for the weekend with more scattered
shower and storm chances across the great lakes region on saturday
and sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
with one round of showers and storms exiting stage right into
pa, all attention turns back to the west as a new complex has
developed across northern illinois into southwestern lower
michigan. this area of shower and storm activity is being fueled
by the warm air advection entering the region with the front
lifting back north after the first round of activity. in
addition, a potent low level jet with 30 to 35 kt of 925 mb flow
will provide extra support for storm activity. the main
question with this complex is: where is it going? the activity
south of chicago is trying to follow the instability gradient
and should allow for this activity to dive more southeast into
indiana and potentially southwest ohio. this cluster should
remain out of the forecast area. the more concerning portion of
the complex are the storms over southwestern lower michigan.
storms are presently moving in a northeasterly direction.
meanwhile, storms closer to grand rapids are more tied to a
boundary that arcs southeast into northern ohio. over the next
couple of hours, expect these storms to congeal over southern
michigan. if they can organize a touch and form a cold pool,
these storms do have the potential to move southeast and push
toward the forecast area later this morning. if these storms
just remain forced by the low level jet and end up staying tied
to the surface boundary, then it is possible that this batch
could miss much of the area to the north or at least move
over/along lake erie. there is some elevated instability to
work with ahead of this complex and precipitable water values
around 1.75" depict that rain could have some efficiency. storms
should also quickly perk up with daytime heating as these will
move through the region as the sun rises and activity could
become concerning quickly after daybreak once the low level
inversion mixes out.

this morning round of showers and thunderstorms will then dictate
how the rest of the day will evolve. if the activity goes through
most of the forecast area, then the front will be south of the area
and new activity would not be favored during the daytime hours. if
the morning activity stays north or just stays near lake erie, then
most of the forecast area will remain south of the front in a
conditionally unstable airmass with warm advection across the area.
this would then allow for scattered shower and storm activity to
develop over the area during the afternoon and evening hours. storms
would then have the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts and
heavy rain that could bring localized flooding. these storms could
persist into tonight.

for tonight, all attention returns back to wisconsin and illinois
for the development of a new complex of showers and thunderstorms
that will move southeast along the front. again, the location of the
front will be very important on where this complex will go - either
into our area or to the southwest. if there is already activity in
our area this afternoon and evening, then this complex will stay
southwest but there will already be activity overhead to contend
with. if the area is dry, then there is a greater chance of this
complex reaching the forecast area. the average solution suggests
that at least the southwest half of the forecast area (roughly along
and southwest of a line from bowling green to canton) should get
some activity tonight.

for tuesday, another southeastward diving mcs is expected to develop
west of the forecast area during the morning hours. this complex
should reach the area during the afternoon hours, favoring the
southwest portion of the forecast area, roughly along and southwest
of a findlay to millersburg line. given that this complex will move
through peak heating hours with maximum instability, there should be
a severe wind threat that will materialize with this complex.
meanwhile, forecast soundings ahead of this complex show
precipitable water values creeping back up to 1.80" showing that
this complex will bring more heavy rain to the area. with this
potentially being the third or fourth round of rain in 48 hours,
the risk for flash flooding will increase.

for tuesday night into wednesday, the frontal boundary that has
sustained these multiple rounds of storms should be south of the
forecast area, allowing for any new development to favor areas to
the southwest. there is some potential for the boundary to be close
to our southwest counties and some scattered rain activity will be
possible through wednesday but the main severe and heavy rain
threats should be out of the area. if the front does have trouble
clearing the area with all of the uncertainty with the previous
rounds of storms, then there could be more severe weather
potential or heavy rain/flash flooding potential on wednesday,
which explains why some portions of northern ohio remain in day
3 spc severe and wpc excessive rainfall marginal risks.

key message 2...
high pressure is expected to build into the region on thursday
from the northwest. this will bring dry weather and less
humidity into the region, giving some relief from the more muggy
weather from earlier in the week. this system will maintain
over the great lakes through friday, allowing for temperatures
to drop back into the 70s.

key message 3...
a subtle shortwave will move through the great lakes region
this weekend and allow for the upper level pattern to return to
northwest flow. like earlier in the week, this northwest flow
pattern will bring a few weak disturbances through the area on
saturday and sunday, each with some scattered shower and storm
chances. it is too early to tell if there will be any severe
weather or flooding hazards at this time. if temperatures remain
muted in the upper 70s, then convective activity may be
reduced.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
a thunderstorm complex that recently moved through ktol will
continue eastward across the lakeshore counties over the next 2
hours. expect these storms to bring heavy rain and gusty winds
along with frequent lightning to kcle by 1230z. they will likely
clip the northern parts of kmfd and kcak between 1230 and 13z
then reach keri by 14z. behind this lead complex, additional
showers and thunderstorms currently developing in ne indiana
and far nw ohio could impact ktol, kfdy, and kmfd through late
morning, so kept at least vcsh at these sites for a couple of
extra hours.

most of this afternoon should be dry and vfr at all terminals,
then we will wait to see where the next round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop. considerable uncertainty still
exists for tonight in terms of coverage of rain and thunder, but
the best potential for thunder appears to be from a ktol to kfdy
to kmfd line, with kmfd seeing the most frequent thunder.
changes to the forecast are likely, so expect a lot of taf
amendments.

light s to sw winds early this morning outside of thunderstorms
will increase by mid to late morning and become gusty through
the afternoon. expect sw winds of 10-15 knots by this afternoon,
gusting to 20-25 knots at times. sw winds will decrease this
evening, with 5-10 knot speeds tonight.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected through
thursday as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move
across the airspace. some storms could be strong to severe
during this timeframe.

&&

.marine...
sw winds will increase to 15-20 knots later this morning through
the afternoon behind a warm front. this will build wave heights
to over 4 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern
basins. at this point, expect the biggest waves and strongest
winds to be in the open waters, so did not issue a small craft
advisory, but it will be very close. boaters should nonetheless
expect choppy conditions.

winds will become light and variable tonight, and expect that to
largely be the case through wednesday as a frontal boundary
oscillates just south of the lake. stronger winds averaging a n
direction will then begin late wednesday and continue through
friday as the front finally pushes south and canadian high
pressure attempts to build across the great lakes.

otherwise, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will impact the lake
today through wednesday. any organized storms that cross the
lake could produce locally strong winds over 50 knots and high
waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt this
evening for lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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834
fxus63 kiwx 100917
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
517 am edt mon aug 10 2026

.key messages...

- several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
into tuesday. damaging winds and large hail are the main
concerns, but an isolated tornado or 2 is possible.

- flooding concerns may increase depending on rainfall amounts
across the area with each round of storms.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.update...
issued at 509 am edt mon aug 10 2026

as advertised by some of the models, the area essentially was
split for the strongest convection with one area mainly in lower
mi and the previously mentioned supercell cluster eventually to
an outflow dominant cluster that clipped white county as it rode
the outflow boundary. in between, lighter rain and a few storms
was all that was observed. ir satellite trends indicate the
threat for additional storms is likely over with the next round
possibly waiting till mid to late afternoon with the arrival of
the next wave. if nothing occurs before this wave, the area will
have plenty of time to destabilize to aid the severe threat.
grids have been cleaned up some to reflect the current trends.

with regards to the flood watch, given the lack of rainfall
overnight considered canceling it early. however, since it is in
effect until 11 am edt will defer to incoming day crew to
decide if they wish to extend or adjust it to account for any
potential later today.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 111 am edt mon aug 10 2026

focus of discussion and any forecast updates will be on next 24 to
36 hours with regards to severe and hydrologic concerns. getting
discussion out early to to potential storms over next couple of
hours.

we are monitoring a cluster of thunderstorms from se wi into
northern il. while some occasional severe reports came from earlier
storms, the main storm of interest (hp supercell) is rooted on the
outflow boundary from the earlier storms with some hints at this
moving more se with time. other storms continue to try to develop
and expand, including far nw parts of the area. this leaves a lot of
uncertainty as to what occurs overnight. plenty of instability
remains across the area, but near sfc inhibition may limit wind
potential overnight. suffice to say, risk of severe remains in play
across the area. for the latest updates on the mesoscale features,
monitor spc products. in addition, a flash flood watch was issued
earlier to cover several counties to cover the recent rainfall and
potential for some areas seeing more heavy rain overnight. this is
currently in effect until 11 am edt, but given the concerns of the
convective evolution overnight no changes are planned at this time.

in the wake of the overnight/early am storms, the atmosphere will
recharge once again with plenty of cape and sufficient shear to bring
yet another severe threat monday afternoon and evening. much like
today, the main threat will be damaging wind along with some large
hail. if any outflow boundaries linger in the area, these could help
with a localized tornado threat. also in play will be the continued
threat of heavy rainfall as pwats remain about 1.75" and warm cloud
depths of 14 k to 15kft. may need to expand the flood watch in area
and time depending on what evolves overnight. sadly, trends in the
models do show yet more storms developing later monday evening into
tuesday morning (possibly the 4th round of storms since sunday
evening). not even going to try to do anything in the forecast with
this given the plethora of challenges from previous rounds of storms
that cannot be fully resolved this far out.

deepening on the location of the stationary boundary tuesday, one
more round of convection could occur focused south of us-30. again,
no changes to forecast with regards to this, just something to keep
in mind with the flood threat possibly still there.

beyond tuesday night, models seem to push the effective boundary
south of the area to give us a reprieve from the rain and storms.
however, the overall upper level flow doesn`t change much so low
confidence at this point and model blend will be left alone.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 509 am edt mon aug 10 2026

threat for additional convection and most likely any flight
impacts looks to be done through this morning. cams suggesting
new development upstream that would move in after 18z and
possibly later. will handle the timing with a tempo group for
now and let later forecasts fine tune things. additional storms
could also occur after 6z tue but even lower confidence warrants
leaving a dry forecast.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-023>025-103-104-116-203-204-
216.
oh...none.
mi...flood watch until 11 am edt this morning for miz078>080-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
990
fxus63 kdtx 100957
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
557 am edt mon aug 10 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through this
morning, then mainly dry conditions expected to persist through the
rest of the day.

- the chance of thunderstorms will exist tonight into tuesday and
again on wednesday, with greater potential near the ohio border.
isolated storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail and heavy rainfall.

- dry weather is expected to end the work week.

&&

.aviation...

a moist and unstable airmass resides along a stalled frontal
boundary this morning, supporting the continuation of nocturnal
showers and thunderstorms. activity should weaken and wane in
coverage by 12z from west to east, with brief mvfr/ifr reductions in
the heaviest downpours. vfr is then favored during the afternoon
hours as ceilings lift and scatter out. low confidence exists in
additional convection this evening and overnight.

d21/dtw convection...additional rounds of convection are possible
this evening and overnight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for thunderstorms early this morning, then low this evening
and overnight.

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 232 am edt mon aug 10 2026

discussion...

little variation in the underlying environment will exist through
the early week period, as conditions remain governed by a seasonably
moist and unstable profile held within prevailing lower amplitude
west-northwest upper level flow. convective expansion underway
upstream early this morning, tied to engagement of low level jet
forcing into a stalled frontal zone and deeper instability
reservoir. observational and radar trends paired by latest cams
guidance confirm expectation for some form of this activity to
arrive locally thru mid morning, given sufficient elevated
instability now in residence. strongest cores will be capable of
producing hail and brief heavy downpours.

dry conditions otherwise favored for most, if not all locations
today. tangible forcing remains elusive as greater evidence exists
for meaningful ascent associated with minor perturbations lodged in
the mean flow to hold just to the south late today and early
tonight. there remains a lower probability outcome for the northern
expanse of any northern ohio valley activity to glance across areas
generally south of i-94, with this corridor most susceptible given
proximity to the main instability gradient. enough bulk shear exists
to afford some convective organization should this scenario emerge,
with spc highlighting this corridor for isolated strong wind/large
hail potential. seasonable temperatures peaking in the mid 80s.

conditional convective potential will exist both tuesday and
wednesday, with the forecast tenuously relying on proper allocation
of additional shortwaves and resulting mcs activity spilling east-
southeast and across the local area versus holding to the south.
mixed signal exists each day on the possibility, with an
unsurprisingly wide range of outcomes offered within the model
spectrum. outgoing forecast will continue to highlight a moderate
probability for rainfall, with a focus for the late day period and
greater potential with southward extent. stagnant thermal profile
means a continuation of highs in the lower to mid 80s.

amplified upper trough anchored over eastern canada will lead to
broader confluent northwest flow developing across the great lakes
for the end of the work week. this will result in deep layer
subsidence and mid level drying as a broad 1020+ mb anticyclone
builds southeast into the region. this will provide a more
discernible shift in storm track south of the area. highs will edge
slightly lower this period - highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

marine...

a slow moving, stalled frontal boundary will impact the region
through middle parts of the week, leaving varying wind directions at
times and winds generally less than 20 knots. multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are possible through mid-week, especially across lake
erie where chances are greater for severe weather and strong
thunderstorm winds. by mid to late week, a weakly organized area of
low pressure becomes develops across the northeast, followed by high
pressure of 30.1 inches gradually dropping southeast across the
central and eastern great lakes. this will favor an uptick in
northwest winds wednesday through friday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...mr
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.