Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
506
fxus61 kcle 090708
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
308 am edt sat may 9 2026

.what has changed...
a low end potential for severe weather remains for much of the
area today. the best window for strong to severe thunderstorms
is 3 to 10 pm today. sunday night is trending a bit warmer,
likely limiting frost potential, but monday night is trending
cooler and widespread frost/freeze conditions are becoming more
likely.

&&

.key messages...
1) an initial round of rain will exit east this morning. another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. storms could reach strong to severe limits.

2) dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected
early next week with frost/freeze chances increasing for monday
night.

3) another system will enter for the middle of next week,
bringing additional rain chances to the region. some storms and
moderate rainfall could be possible on tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
shower activity will continue across the southeastern half of
the forecast area this morning, bringing another 0.10-0.30" of
rain from mansfield to meadville and southeast. behind this
rain, there should be a dry window for much of the area through
the early afternoon hours. this will allow for the atmosphere to
recover well in the warm sector with temperatures returning into
the 60s and even lower 70s for some, mainly where the sun can
find its way through the clouds for a couple of hours. there
should also be some decent mixing in the warm sector as well
with southwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph. this improved air
mass will be present later today ahead of a cold front that will
approach the region from the northwest. a new round of
convective activity should develop well ahead of the front by
mid-afternoon, as a stronger shortwave moves through the broader
trough aloft. this activity will tap into a marginally unstable
air mass and allow for widespread showers and some thunderstorms
to move across the region later today.

the main question is: could storms become organized and pose a
strong to severe weather risk today? the answer to that
question will fully rely on the atmosphere recovery this morning
and early afternoon. if temperatures trend warmer into the 70s,
suspect that there will be more storm activity and potential for
severe weather as mlcape values can get over 1000 j/kg. if
recovery is slower with more cloud cover across the region, then
temperatures may not reach 70 degrees and instability would be
less conducive for severe weather. outside of instability
factors, there will be good jet support aloft and broader shear
to sustain thunderstorms if they can get going this afternoon.
if storms do develop, the main threats would be damaging wind
gusts and large hail, especially with fairly low freezing levels
across the region. a marginal risk of severe weather from the
storm prediction center remains across the area for today and
continues to convey the conditional storm threat.

rain will continue across the area tonight into sunday with
support from the upper trough aloft and the main cold front
sweeping through the region. the loss of daytime heating should
allow for convection to switch to just rain tonight. qpf totals
could be up to a half inch of rainfall for this afternoon into
tonight with a low potential for more where rain persists.

key message 2...
cool high pressure will enter the region starting on sunday
afternoon and remain over the area through tuesday morning,
allowing for 36-48 hours of dry weather across the region. this
will also promote several periods of below normal temperatures.
clouds will remain across the region on sunday night with the
saturday system departing to the east. this may keep low
temperatures more in the lower 40s vs. mid-to-upper 30s and may
limit the overall frost threat across the area. high pressure
solidly across the area on monday night and should allow for a
clear, calm, and decoupling atmosphere and low temperatures in
the 30s should be anticipated. frost, if not freeze, headlines
are becoming more likely on monday night for a large portion of
the forecast area. high temperatures on monday will be in the
50s. highs on tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with high
pressure moving out and some return flow entering the region.

key message 3...
the pattern will return to unsettled for the middle of next
week with a low pressure moving through the great lakes region.
rain chances will be expected from tuesday night through
thursday with the system. the initial arrival of the system
during the night on tuesday should limit thunderstorm activity
but will continue some slight chances of thunder, mainly out
west. otherwise, just rain will be expected for wednesday and
thursday at this time. there could be some moderate rain on
tuesday night into wednesday morning and will need to watch for
trends with that part of the forecast for any future flood
concern. rain will be lighter later with the system.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
cyclonic w`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our
region through 06z/sun. at the surface, net troughing lingers
for the time being and a cold front should sweep generally
se`ward across northern oh and nw pa between ~22z/sat and
~05z/sun. behind the front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly
from the canadian prairies and vicinity through 06z/sun. ahead
of the cold front, our regional surface winds trend s`erly to
sw`erly around 5 to 15 knots and should gust up to 20 to 25
knots at times, especially late this morning through early
evening. the cold front passage will cause our regional surface
winds to veer to w`erly and be around 5 to 10 knots for several
hours. farther behind the surface front, surface winds should
become light and variable as the mslp gradient weakens in
response to the building surface ridge.

scattered light to moderate rain showers associated with one of
the aforementioned disturbances aloft continue to exit
generally e`ward from our region through ~10z/sat. visibility
will vary between vfr and ifr in this rain. otherwise,
widespread ceilings are expected to range between about 5kft agl
and ifr through ~14z/sat. behind this morning`s rain, subtle
breaks in the low-level cloud cover, weak surface winds, and
sufficient low-level moisture should allow radiation mist with
visibility in the mvfr to ifr range to form through ~12z/sat.
the mist and low ceilings are then expected to give way to
widespread vfr by ~14z/sat, following the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer. scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface cold front
should impact our region between ~19z/sat and ~05z/sun as the
convection persists generally e`ward. these showers and storms
should be accompanied by brief mvfr to lifr and generate
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots. following
the surface cold front passage, additional scattered rain
showers associated with the upper-reaches of the front remain
possible through 06z/sun. widespread ceilings near 3.5kt to 6kft
agl are expected along the upper-reaches of the front.

outlook...scattered rain showers with non-vfr are possible
overnight saturday night into sunday morning. periodic showers
and thunderstorms with non-vfr are expected this tuesday
afternoon through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
overall marine weather and the conditions on lake erie will be
somewhat quiet this weekend into early next week. there will be
a couple weather systems moving through the great lakes over the
next several days that will bring wind shifts and some rain
chances. winds are rather light and variable this afternoon with
a weak low level flow over the lake at this time. a weak area of
low pressure will skirt south of lake erie tonight with a round
of showers and possible isolated thunder. winds will resume a
southerly flow late this afternoon into tonight 5 to 12 knots
and waves 1 to 2 feet. a cold front will approach the area late
saturday and southwesterly winds will increase 15 to 20 knots
during the day. waves will increase 1 to 3 feet mainly in the
open waters of the basin. the front will push across the lake
saturday night and a northwesterly will follow behind it 10 to
15 knots into sunday. waves will continue 1 to 2 feet on
sunday.


another secondary surface trough or cold front will move through
the eastern great lakes sunday night into early monday with a
slight reinforcing push of northerly to northwesterly winds 10
to 15 knots and waves 2 feet or less. high pressure builds in
with lighter winds monday night and early tuesday. a light
southerly flow 5 to 12 knots will return by tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
115
fxus63 kiwx 090558
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
158 am edt sat may 9 2026

.key messages...

- a series of weather disturbances will continue to support
periodic chances of showers through saturday night.

- seasonably cool temperatures persist through early next week.

- patchy to widespread frost sunday night and monday night,
especially north of us-30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 135 pm edt fri may 8 2026

no significant changes to the inherited forecast. shower chances
will persist through this evening as a series of weak short
waves traverse the flow aloft over the next 12 to 24 hours.
after a brief overnight lull, shower chances will increase again
late saturday morning through the afternoon with the passage of
a cold front. highest precipitation amounts ranging from 0.15 to
0.30 inch should remain focused mainly along and south of us-20.
seasonably cool temperatures will persist through the weekend w/
potential for frost across northern areas on sunday night and
monday night as temperatures drop into the upper 30s. /hammer

previous discussion (issued at 414 am edt fri may 8):

an anomalously cool pattern will persist as an upper low lingers
over eastern canada. 500 mb heights were around 400 meters below
normal from hudson bay into the upper great lakes. yesterday`s
temperatures were close to 10 degrees below normal. short wave
energy moving southeast in the cool pattern will generate showers
through saturday as the atmospheric environment remains saturated
or close to saturation from the surface to above 30,000 ft. another
in the series of these waves will bring scattered to numerous showers
to the forecast area today. there is above average of general model
agreement with timing and location of the showers this afternoon into
early tonight. the favored locations for rain will be south of the
michigan border.

this cool pattern will bring more chances for frost early next week.
temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid and upper 30s mainly
sunday night and monday night. vegetation development is likely
advanced for this time of year given the large number of growing
degree days (already near or exceeding 400 south of the michigan
border). headlines will likely be needed to cover low temperatures
these cold nights. /skipper

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 152 am edt sat may 9 2026

a low level trough and associated stronger fgen forcing has
slipped south of terminals, with threat of measurable rain
having ended across the area. the attention for the remainder of
the night will be on the potential of mvfr or possibly ifr cigs
developing in what appears to be a weak return warm-frontal
feature in advance of a more amplified upper trough later today.
lingering low level moisture lingering in vicinity of this
boundary should support mvfr cigs in kfwa vicinity and possibly
as far north as ksbn. ifr cigs are also possible at kfwa in a
brief window in the 09z to 13z period. low clouds should scatter
out after 13z with breezy west winds developing today. the
approach of next upper level trough and low level front should
lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and have included prob30 tsra group at kfwa where
timing of this forcing should favor a pocket of slightly better
sfc based instability.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
147
fxus63 kdtx 090645
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
245 am edt sat may 9 2026

.key messages...

- warmer today with a marginal risk for severe weather this
afternoon, roughly along and south of the i-69 corridor.

- below normal temperatures return sunday and likely persist
through mid-week.

&&

.discussion...

strong shortwave/500 mb height fall center to track through the
northern great lakes today. although the height falls struggle to
get much farther south than saginaw bay, the optimal timing of the
cold front/low level convergence during the afternoon hours should
be sufficient for numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
surface dew pts aoa 50 degrees already noted along/near the southern
border. with high temperature reaching around 70 degrees, sbcape
around 1000 j/kg seems likely. with steep mid level lapse rates (700-
500 mb) of 7 c/km and rather strong wind fields (45 knots at 850
mb), isolated severe storms are possible with both wind and hail.
just enough 0-1 km helicity/bulk shear to suggest a tornado is not
totally out of the question before unidirectional low level flow
takes over. far eastern areas, along a monroe-detroit-port huron
line stand the best chance for severe storms, with actually good
timing agreement amongst hires solutions (rrfs/arw/nam/hrrr) mainly
in the 1-5 pm window.

deep cyclonic flow then develops for the second half of the weekend
into early next week, with 850 mb temps progged to bottom out in the
-2 to -4 c range monday morning. min temps drop into the 30s sunday
night and monday night; however, there may be just enough wind to
help prevent widespread frost/freeze conditions.

the next strong shortwave and associated low pressure system looks
to be arriving on tuesday. warm front should be active, producing
showers as moisture advection is stellar. pw values start the day on
tuesday around 0.2 inches and surge to 1 inch by early evening.
showalter index stays positive through the day on tuesday, and just
approaches zero tuesday night, thus not looking for much in the way
of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.marine...

southwest winds quickly ramping up this morning as a cold front
tracks into the central great lakes region. wind gusts at or above
25 knots are expected near the shorelines this afternoon, along with
scattered strong thunderstorms. thus, small craft advisories have
been issued for most of the nearshore waters. the cold front will
pass through around 21-00z early this evening, allowing for winds to
shift to the northwest tonight, but under 25 knots over southern
lake huron and points south.

another weaker cold front may clip northern lake huron sunday,
otherwise a bit quieter as high pressure builds back in with
westerly or northwesterly flow persisting into early next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1055 pm edt fri may 8 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions will hold into the early morning hours as a weak area
of high pressure gradually exits the region. some pockets of thicker
cirrus will funnel through at times. low level moisture will
increase overnight from the southwest, supporting low stratus
development and expansion during the mid and late morning hours.
forecast will continue highlight a window between 10z and 16z for
lower mvfr to possible ifr stratus to emerge across mainly the
detroit/ptk airspace. a cold front on pace to track across the
region saturday afternoon. a few showers and rumble of thunder
plausible within the moistening pre-frontal environment during the
morning. as low cloud mixes out and the environment destabilizes, a
narrow window will exist between 16z and 20z for brief more
organized convective development to anchor on the cold front. higher
probability exists across the detroit airspace.

d21/dtw convection...a cold front will track across se michigan
saturday afternoon. there is a low chance for a broken cluster/line
of thunderstorms to develop saturday afternoon, most likely between
16z and 20z. isolated severe weather is possible.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and saturday
morning.

* low for thunderstorms between 16z and 20z saturday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lhz441>443.

small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......sf
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.