Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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778
fxus61 kcle 270605
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
205 am edt thu aug 27 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is growing that any convection that develops will reach
the i-75 between 7 and 8 pm edt with the primary concern being gusty
wind and large hail. the line is expected to weaken as it moves
toward the i-71 corridor.

&&

.key messages...
1) a line of convection will develop ahead of a cold front this
evening. some strong to severe storms are possible primarily across
the i-75 corridor.

2) above average temperatures return next week with highs once again
expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure continues to drift off the mid-atlantic coast
today, a cold front will approach the area as a low pressure system
begins to push east across the northern great lakes. ahead of this
cold front, a line of convection is expected to develop in the warm
sector of the low over illinois/indiana, moving into the cwa between
7 and 8 pm edt. current dewpoints over indiana in the upper 60s to
low 70s mixed with the ongoing diurnally heating and theta-e
advection ahead of the boundary will aid in storm development.
additionally, shear values of 20-30 knots should be able to aid in
storm maintenance as they push east. the primary concern with this
evening`s convection is gusty winds and large hail, although there
remains a non-zero tornado chance. the tricky part about the
forecast over the cleveland cwa is how far east these storms will
progress and remain strong to severe. given current model guidance
placing storms in near the i-75 corridor between 7-8pm, general
thinking is that corridor will see the greatest potential for severe
weather before the threat rapidly decreases further east with the
timing of convection becoming less diurnally favorable and
instability decreasing. spc has highlight the i-75 corridor in a
day 1 slight risk (2 of 5) for the storm potential and has also
highlighted portions of the region upstream in a recent mcd
highlighting the ongoing destabilization being observed. with any
storms that develop, there is also a chance for locally heavy
rainfall and due to this wpc has issued a day 1 marginal ero (1 of
4) for the northwest portion of the area.

as the front progresses east tonight, scattered showers are possible
along and east of i-71 but the severe threat will be minimal. this
boundary should reach into far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania by thursday morning when additional thunderstorms may
occur but should remain sub-severe given the weaker environment
earlier in the day.

key message 2...
high pressure returns to the area late friday into saturday and is
expected to persist into early next week. this should allow for a
prolonged period of dry weather over the area in addition to the
gradual warming of temperatures. highs on saturday will remain mild
in the upper 70s to low 80s before climbing into the upper 80s to
low 90s for monday and tuesday. with dewpoints lingering in the 60s,
it will be humid but overall heat indices shouldn`t exceed the mid-
90s. overnight lows saturday night will be in the 50s before they
climb into the mid to upper 60s by tuesday night.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are moving
across far northeast oh and into northwest pa early this
morning, with potential brief impacts at eri/yng. otherwise, a
period of lower ceilings is possible this morning ahead of an
approaching front. hit this hardest at tol/fdy where some fog is
also possible, but still included at least a tempo for mvfr
ceilings farther east. clouds will likely rise to a sct-bkn
cumulus deck around 040-050 this afternoon. a few showers or
thunderstorms may develop near yng/cak this afternoon before
exiting to the southeast. winds will shift west-northwest today
as the cold front moves through and increase to 5-10kt, then
shift more north-northeasterly tonight as a trough axis moves
through. this trough may pick up enough moisture to lead to mvfr
ceilings and perhaps a light shower near cle/eri tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings and a few showers
moving off of lake erie into early friday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front is crossing the lake this morning, shifting winds
to a more northwest direction. winds of 10-15kt, briefly a bit
higher, will continue through early this afternoon before
briefly subsiding late this afternoon. waves of 1 to 3 feet in
the open waters in southwest wind will be pushed towards the
lakeshore from cleveland points northeast as winds shift with
the front. winds shift more north-northeast at 10-15kt tonight
as a surface trough crosses the lake, building more 1 to 3 foot
waves, especially over the western and central basins. winds and
waves are expected to remain a bit shy of advisory criteria, but
will be large enough to make conditions unpleasant for small
craft and to perhaps bring a moderate risk of rip currents to
the shoreline from cleveland points west. northeast winds will
remain brisk through a good portion of friday before generally
favorable marine conditions arrive for the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 270550
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
150 am edt thu aug 27 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures continue thursday with a very low
chance of an afternoon shower (less than 15 percent).

- becoming warmer and more humid for the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 108 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

main focus remains on near term as shower and thunderstorm activity
should slowly increase this afternoon into early evening ahead of a
sfc front. a stronger storm developed over lk mi and has been moving
across van buren into kalamazoo counties in mi. some attempt at
further development sw is noted, but they are struggling due to a
lack of upper support. the trough will continue east with a modest,
yet marginally sufficient shear profile to allow for some increase in
intensity with time. with the best lift remaining north, cells will
tend to grow rather quickly, but then struggle to maintain
themselves outside of any storm or outflow interactions. best window
still appears to be 19-20z to maybe as late as 2z. locally damaging
winds, marginally severe hail (freezing levels rather high today)
and a very low chance for an isolated brief tornado in the early
stages of development. swody1 slight risk was maintained across most
of the area. flooding concerns appear very limited given expected
coverage and duration.

another weak mid level trough will pass through during peak heating
thursday afternoon. some limited instability and moisture will still
exist mainly across se sections to bring a small chance for a shower
or storm in the 20-24z thu time frame. will continue with silent 14
pops in these areas for now.

thursday night through the weekend will feature a change in the
upper level flow to more of a semi-zonal setup as another northern
stream trough digs in the pacific nw. as a result, dry and
seasonably warm weather will settle in with highs in the 80s, lows
in the 60s and somewhat elevated, but tolerable humidity values. the
aformentioned trough looks to move into the dakotas by monday, but
then be shunted ne as a 595 dm high across the se u.s edges north.
model blend continues to throw in some token slgt chc pops as it
struggles with waves that pass nearby, but likely cause no real
impact.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 145 am edt thu aug 27 2026

a surface cold front tracking across northwest ohio this morning
has been characterized by some patchy fog development behind the
front across portions of northern indiana. this fog development
may be most prevalent for areas which received measurable
rainfall yesterday afternoon. stratus/fog development appears
most likely across kfwa over the next several hours, with at
least a potential of some patchy dense fog across ne indiana in
the 08z to 12z timeframe. with the 06z tafs have trended kfwa to
tempo ifr conditions for this period. will hold off on vsby
restrictions at ksbn given more limited rainfall across these
locations and where hydrolapse profiles may not be quite as
favorable given post-frontal dry air advection.

otherwise for today, broad mid/upper level troughing will
persist across the great lakes, although vertical motion fields
are not expected to be particularly strong. a secondary low
level trough is expected to drop across the southern great lakes
this afternoon. given combination of this low level trough and
potential weak sfc based instability, cannot completely rule out
isolated afternoon shower but coverage appears to be much too
limited for any taf inclusion given weakly forced nature.
northwest winds 10 knots or less are expected behind the front
today.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 270345
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1145 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

.key messages...

- an isolated shower is possible thursday afternoon, then drier and
less humid conditions are expected through friday and saturday.

- a warming trend brings above normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.aviation...

subtle moisture influx thursday morning within the post cold frontal
environment may lead to some mvfr and/or vfr based strato cu with
the onset of daytime heating during the mid-late morning. diurnal
boundary layer growth will then support a lifting of cloud bases
thurs afternoon along with light wnw winds.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 313 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

discussion...

a couple of thunderstorm clusters have developed over western lower
michigan this afternoon along a continuous line of agitated cumulus
that stretches from northern mi back toward central illinois. the
trend so far has been for cells to be short-lived as they move off
the boundary and away from the instability axis, which is anchored
closely to the cold front itself. local cloud trends are quite
stable still, reflecting remnants of the 850-600mb stable layer that
was sampled in the 12z kdtx sounding.

expectations for the afternoon-evening are still largely on track
where coverage increases to become a broken line of showers and
storms. any deeper convective growth is likely confined to a window
of about 4pm-9pm as moisture convergence sweeps through ahead of the
front and overlaps with weakening shear profiles. the lack of deep
layer shear favors a pulsey/multicellular nature rather than strong
cold pool organization, meaning isolated downburst and hail
potential as cores collapse. given the environment, higher
confidence in a strong-severe storm exists near the ohio border
where instability is greatest although all of se mi is in at least a
marginal risk for severe weather. veered south/southwest flow is
generally less favorable for the streamwise vorticity needed for
tornadoes with a west-east mean wind. that said, there has been weak
mid-level rotation noted upstream so cannot rule out supercellular
structures, mainly early on as shear is at its peak.

the cold front sweeps through late this evening, bringing an end to
thunderstorm chances overnight. a quieter pattern then develops
thursday into the weekend as surface high pressure fills in post
cold front. northwest flow and return of thermal troughing take
advantage of warmer lake temperatures to generate partial coverage
of stratocumulus thursday, which could squeeze out low-topped shower
activity. moisture availability then wanes friday into the weekend
as the high drifts overhead, with winds then shifting to the
southwest by saturday in response. dry conditions thus expected.
coolest high temperatures of the period expected thursday-friday as
h8 temperatures drop into the lower teens across lower mi, equating
to highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

the emergence of sw flow saturday then kicks off a warming trend
that peaks early next week. gfs and euro mos guidance are in line
with the extended nbm, projecting high temperatures near 90 degrees
monday-tuesday. this pairs with a gulf connection where moisture
transport is accelerated sunday through tuesday as low level jet
winds increase to 30-35 knots. this establishes breezy southwest
flow (~25 to 30 mph) during peak heating each day, as well as an
increase in shower and thunderstorm chances across the great lakes.

marine...

scattered showers and thunderstorms work across the area this
evening in advance of an approaching cold front. an isolated strong
wind gust is possible particularly towards the southern great lakes.
cold front eventually crosses the region late evening-tonight
flipping around winds to the nw for thursday. moderate cool
advection follows with peak gusts between 20-25kts over the northern
portions of lake huron daytime thursday before high pressure begins
to build in. said high then drifts overhead friday and saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mv
marine.......kdk


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