Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 200007
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
807 pm edt sun jul 19 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are likely monday night through
tuesday. storms may be severe tuesday afternoon and evening, but
there is uncertainty.

2) brief warm up monday and tuesday followed by a longer period
of cool temperatures and low humidity mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the mid/upper trough over the great lakes tonight will briefly
lift monday ahead of an unseasonably strong shortwave diving
from manitoba into the northern great lakes. this shortwave
will continue to dive through the central and eastern great
lakes tuesday. as this occurs, the canadian high at the surface
will shift off of the mid atlantic coast monday as a deepening
surface low progresses across northern ontario and through
northern quebec tuesday and tuesday night.

return low-level flow and developing warm air advection monday
will strengthen monday night as a warm front lifts east and
northeast across the region. an impressive 110-120 knot h3 jet
streak rounding the base of the diving shortwave will support a
35-45 knot low-level jet in the western great lakes monday
night, and this strong moist, theta e advection and isentropic
ascent ahead of the warm front should ignite and sustain a
nocturnal mcs. this period is starting to come into the range of
cams, and most dive the most organized portion of this mcs
across illinois and indiana along the instability/theta e
gradient. this makes sense given that the low-levels will still
be dry and stable in northern ohio and nw pa, however, elevated
instability advecting into our region overnight should still
generate some showers and thunderstorms. severe weather will not
occur with this monday night elevated convection, but locally
heavy downpours are possible.

the main show associated with this unusually dynamic mid summer
system still looks to be tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of
the strong cold front that will drop south across the region.
the aforementioned impressive jet streak will shift across
southern ontario tuesday afternoon as the axis of the shortwave
crosses the southern great lakes and ohio valley. this will
support strong ascent across northern ohio, nw pa, and the lake
erie region beneath the right entrance of this jet streak,
leading to strong forcing along and ahead of the cold front. in
most cases, this would be a clear cut set-up for an organized,
severe line of convection in the form of a qlcs. the continued
uncertainty lies with the monday night and early tuesday morning
convection. the aforementioned elevated convection monday night,
as well as remnants from the upstream mcs activity, will likely
leave cloud cover and outflow boundaries across our region
tuesday morning. many times in the past, this has caused the
new convection to initiate along these outflow boundaries and
differential heating boundaries in southern and eastern portions
of the cwa, and then the convection matures mainly south and
east of our area. this very well may be the case tuesday. the
swody3 enhanced risk with 45% wind over the southern and eastern
fringe of the cwa looks reasonable at this time given the
potential for convection to mature to the south and east
tuesday afternoon, with lower probabilities farther north and
west. this will continue to be monitored closely since the
dynamics of this system and surge of warmth and humidity ahead
of it could support a more widespread threat if the frontal
timing slows at all or if less convection impacts the area
monday night/tuesday morning. regardless of intensity or
organization, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
around much of tuesday, so maintained likely to categorical
pops.

most areas will dry out rapidly behind the cold front tuesday
night, but deep mid/upper longwave troughing across the great
lakes in the wake of the system and associated cold air
advection and cyclonic flow will likely support additional
lake-effect and lake enhanced rain showers in far ne ohio and nw
pa through wednesday until broad canadian high pressure builds
in by wednesday night.

key message 2...
the warm air advection developing monday as the surface high
departs to the east will allow temperatures to warm back into
the low/mid 80s, except upper 70s in nw pa. despite the warmer
air temperatures, humidity will remain comfortable as dew
points stay mainly in the 50s. this will change monday night and
tuesday as deeper low-level moisture in the warm sector surges
into the area. this will bring 70+ degree dew points back into
the area for tuesday, and this combined with temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s will support heat indices around 90. for those who
don`t like the heat and humidity, the cooler weather will make
an abrupt return behind the cold front tuesday night as the deep
mid/upper trough and strong canadian high take up residence
across the great lakes the rest of the week. this will support a
longer period of below normal temperatures, with highs mainly in
the low/mid 70s wednesday and thursday, gradually warming friday
through the weekend. however, humidity will remain comfortable.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
high pressure across the region will allow for dry weather and
light winds over the next 24-30 hours. conditions will be
primarily vfr through the taf period. however, some wildfire
smoke continues to move across the region and may allow for some
brief mvfr. this smoke is higher aloft and less problematic
than last week`s event. however, visibility may intermittently
drop to mvfr in haze through monday morning. there could be a
better window for mvfr in the pre-dawn hours as the atmosphere
stabilizes and an inversion builds, trapping some smoke near the
surface.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms monday
night through tuesday. some thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and
evening may contain strong wind gusts. residual non-vfr possible
on wednesday on rain showers across the eastern half of the
area.

&&

.marine...
good marine conditions are expected on the lake this afternoon
through monday with winds around 10 knots or less and waves 1
to 2 feet. the next period of concern for rough marine
conditions and marine headlines will be on tuesday. southwest
winds will increase 15 to 25 knots ahead of a cold front. rough
marine conditions will continue into wednesday as winds shift
towards the northwest behind the front around 20 knots and waves
of 3 to 5 feet. in addition, strong to severe thunderstorm wind
gusts are possible across lake erie monday night into tuesday
ahead of the front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sefcovic
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
757 pm edt sun jul 19 2026

.key messages...

- smoke from canadian wildfires will continue to bring periods
of poor air quality and reduced visibility through at least
monday.

- moderate swim risk conditions are expected this evening along
lake mi beaches in southern berrien county, mi and la porte
county, in. breaking waves and currents are expected.

- there is a 30-60% chance of thunderstorms monday night.
thunderstorms may be severe. confidence in severe weather
occurring is low. storms may redevelop tuesday.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 145 pm edt sun jul 19 2026

not as hot today which has been a welcome change of pace. high
pressure has centered over eastern wisconsin behind yesterday`s cold
front. the downside is the return of wildfire smoke today.

the primary period of interest is monday night through tuesday
evening when a trough moves through the northern plains and into the
upper great lakes. the forecast here remains rather murky despite
the advertised slight risk areas for severe thunderstorms. upper
level support via a 60-70 knot 500-mb jet fails to arrive until very
late tuesday night. this results in marginal shear (but shear that
improves through time) and diminishing instability with the loss of
daytime heating. in contrast, mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 c/km
indicates some ability to sustain convection. however, forecast
soundings from a couple available cams show an elevated mixed layer
keeping a lid on things most of monday night. all told, the sum of
parts suggests upstream convection will struggle to sustain
severity into our forecast area monday night. of course, this then
raises the question of how tuesday plays out. with the upper-level
jet bisecting our area by late-morning, the i-69 corridor could be
the target for severe thunderstorms. alternatively, decaying
convection (stratiform rain) tuesday morning could squelch the
afternoon risk of storms. overall, tuesday`s severe risk will be
highly conditional on how monday night pans out.

cooler still by wednesday as a reinforcing dose of cool air descends
from canada. look for highs only in the mid-70s and lows in the 50s.
by late-week, high pressure shifts east and southerly return flow
brings highs back into the 80s with silent-10% pops friday and into
next weekend as a couple of disturbances pass to our west or south.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 747 pm edt sun jul 19 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals through the
period, with potential for mvfr conditions thanks to lingering
wildfire smoke. ongoing light e-ne flow will become variable for
tonight, then shift towards the s-sw on monday. mostly clear
skies and nearly calm winds may allow for enough radiational
cooling to get br (best chance at ksbn per guidance), or to see
a further reduction in visibility due to hz/fu once we are
beneath the nighttime inversion. have a tempo at ksbn for 4sm fu
between 6-10z as confidence is higher there than at kfwa (ksbn
is still reporting 6sm/hz as of this writing, and kfwa is 7sm).


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ monday night
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt monday night for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 192249
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
649 pm edt sun jul 19 2026

.key messages...

- a statewide air quality alert is in effect through monday as
additional wildfire smoke filters across michigan.

- the next round of showers and thunderstorms arrives monday night
into tuesday that poses a marginal risk for severe weather.

&&

.aviation...

as daytime heating wanes this evening, residual diurnal cu will
diminish. high pressure will then maintain clear skies and light
winds through the night. with some continued decrease in the
forecast smoke concentrations during the night, prevailing vfr
visibilities will be maintained. light south-southwest winds will
develop by monday afternoon as the high pressure system drifts east
of the area.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through monday
evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 pm edt sun jul 19 2026

discussion...

stretch of dry and stable conditions to finish the weekend period
maintained by existing high pressure. high remains anchored locally
through tonight, affording a window of meaningful radiational
cooling as a weak pressure gradient and clear sky capitalizes on a
slight reduction in moisture quality. this will yield overnight lows
in the mid-50s across some rural zones and lower 60s within the
detroit urban heat island. air quality will remain a concern into
tonight as the canadian wildfire smoke plume trapped beneath the
strengthening near-surface subsidence inversion continues to
oscillate across the lower peninsula. hrrr-smoke profiles suggest
localized visibility restrictions in haze/smoke through early monday
morning.

dry and seasonable conditions exist into monday. high pressure slips
off to the mid-atlantic coast, affording a modest window of low
level warm air advection as flow emerges from the south. this will
support highs generally in the lower 80s. potential does exist for a
remnant convectively induced/enhanced vort max to eject out of the
upper midwest and track into the lower peninsula late afternoon/
evening. little evidence to suggest anything more than some increase
in high based cloud should this scenario materialize, given the lack
of both greater moisture quality or instability at this stage.

attention then turns to the implications of greater height falls
expected to expand across the great lakes monday night and tuesday.
convective initiation and expansion likely west of lake mi by mon
evening as increasing large scale ascent supplements ongoing deeper
moisture transport within the greatest instability reservoir. while
some degree of nocturnal moisture advection will occur given the
magnitude and trajectory of 850 mb flow, there remains some question
as to depth and scale of this process. this subsequently casts
greater uncertainty as to prospective convective coverage and vigor
as ongoing activity spills downstream and into an inherently less
receptive early morning window /after 06z/. forecast continues to
highlight a high likelihood of showers with embedded thunderstorms,
carrying an isolated risk for strong wind gusts should a more
supportive low level environment manifest despite the overnight
timing. the parent shortwave and trailing cold front will move
across lower michigan during the day tuesday. substantial cloud
cover and ongoing morning shower activity will hamper
destabilization, but trailing forcing along the cold front will keep
a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through tuesday afternoon.

a deep upper-level closed low establishes over northern ontario
wednesday, maintaining broad cyclonic flow over the great lakes. a
solid period of cold advection by july standards will drop 850 mb
temperatures into the single digits by afternoon. a steep lapse rate
environment should offer a generous stratocu field, while lending to
a lower end potential for diurnal shower production mainly across
the thumb. highs firmly below average in the low to mid 70s. the
region remains tucked within the eastern edge of the dominant
western us ridge, keeping dry but cooler northwest flow in place to
finish the work week. surface high pressure builds back over the
ohio valley, suppressing convective chances and offering high
insolation potential. temperature remain at or just below average
this period.

marine...

high pressure commands control of the central great lakes today
supporting dry conditions and prevailing winds below headline
criteria. unsettled conditions build in late monday and monday
night, as a strong low pressure system tracks across
central/southern ontario. gusty winds ahead of the attendant front
may lead to a period of small craft advisory conditions,
particularly across saginaw bay, where southwesterly flow could
channel more efficiently. a small craft advisory will likely be
issued with the evening forecast update. potential for showers and
thunderstorms then increases across the waterways as the front moves
through supporting periods of locally higher winds and waves. wet
weather could persist into tuesday before high pressure from
alberta/manitoba builds in by tuesday evening with a drying effect.
strong gradient flow arises tuesday afternoon with an energetic
northwesterly low-level jet favoring low-end potential for gales
across the huron basin. favorable dynamics remain in-place through
wednesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mr
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.