Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
151 am edt tue apr 21 2026

.what has changed...
a freeze warning remains in effect for most of our cwa until 10
am this morning, except for lucas, ottawa, sandusky, wood, and
hancock counties.

&&

.key messages...
1) warmer air will return today and persist through early next
week. there will be several chances for rain this week into the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
after a cold start to our tuesday morning, the weather pattern
will shift to warmer temperatures starting later today. high
pressure over the region will shift towards the east coast later
today. a return of southerly winds will advect in much warmer
weather today with high temperatures ranging from the lower to
middle 60s over nwpa and the upper 60s to lower 70s over neoh
and nwoh. fair weather skies will continue for today with mostly
sunny conditions. a weak front will drift southward across the
lower great lakes region tonight with scattered showers and
isolated thunder possible. no severe weather is expected. some
scattered rain showers may linger into wednesday over portions
of central ohio, south of highway 30. temperatures will not be
impacted by the passage of the front on wednesday with highs
back in the upper 60s to lower/middle 70s.

an upper level ridge will move eastward from the midwest into
the upper ohio valley and great lakes region by thursday. mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with even warmer
temperatures by thursday afternoon. thursday`s high temps will
climb into the lower to upper 70s. and the spring like warmth
will continue for friday with high temperatures in the middle
70s to around 80 degrees. a weak cold front will move from west
to east across the region late on friday with scattered showers
and isolated thunder possible. rain chances will become likely
friday evening and overnight. temperatures will cool back down
to near seasonable average this weekend but remain in the middle
to upper 60s. temperatures will warm back upwards by next
monday ahead of the next weather system moving across the
midwest into the ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
the area will start with vfr and mostly clear conditions and
light southerly flow with high pressure departing east this
morning. some mid- and high-level clouds will enter through the
early morning hours and spread across the terminals. for
tuesday, a warm front will cross the area and allow for enhanced
south to southwest flow across the region. gusts of 20 to 30 kts
are expected with good mixing in the warm sector. the front will
come back south as a cold front tonight and bring some scattered
showers to the region. showers could have some embedded thunder
within them, but too low of confidence to include in a taf at
this time. in addition, the intensity of any rainfall with the
showers appears low and the potential for non-vfr with the rain
is decreasing. ceilings will lower with and behind the boundary
and some mvfr is possible just after the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and storms
friday and saturday.

&&

.marine...
the lake is starting out quiet early this morning with light
southerly flow over the basin. a warm front moving through the
region will allow for increasing south to southwest flow this
afternoon. the winds should hit a wall with the cold dome over
the lake and suspect that winds will generally stay in the 10 to
15 kt range except for right at the lakeshore. the warm frontal
boundary will sag south as a cold front tonight into wednesday
and bring some light onshore flow. high pressure will then enter
over the lake and bring light and variable flow. this system
will move east for thursday and allow for light southerly flow
to be favored. a low pressure system will target the region for
friday and saturday. southeast to east flow will increase ahead
of this system on friday. there is some uncertainty on the
trajectory for this system over the weekend but once the system
passes, winds will shift to the north for saturday and sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning until 10 am edt this morning for ohz009>014-
018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze warning until 10 am edt this morning for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
529 am edt tue apr 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected late today
and tonight. severe storms are not expected, but locally heavy
rainfall is likely.

- more showers and scattered thunderstorms are ahead friday.
severe storms are not expected.

- highs will be above to much above normal from around 70 to 80
degrees through saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 324 am edt tue apr 21 2026

return flow was underway with a large high pressure area along
the east coast and a trof of low pressure across the high
plains. at the onset, this scenario was causing warm air
advection across the ohio valley and the mississippi valley. the
airmass was quite dry with dew points in the 20s. warm and
initially dry air advection will be able to mix down milder air.
highs today should reach around 70 to 75. due to the strong mid
level cap, stray thunderstorms are not expected; however, the
best chance for storms will be this evening as moisture pools
along and south of the front. it still looks like chances for
severe storms is low given limited instability and unidirectional
winds per gfs bufkit.

unseasonably mild weather is ahead wednesday through friday as
an upper level ridge builds north across the ohio river valley.
850 mb temperatures from +9c to +12c warmed dry adiabatically
to the surface support highs in the mid 70s to around 80. record
highs in the mid to upper 80s appear out of reach at this time.
given a number of rivers still in action to minor flood stage,
rainfall amounts today around a half an inch are not expected to
cause rises on area rivers; however, these rainfall amounts
could case a delay in the water levels receding.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 528 am edt tue apr 21 2026

existing tafs remain on track at this time. high clouds are
beginning to stream in amid a blossoming warm sector of low
pressure over the central states. a cold front drops slowly
southward just prior to 00z bringing -tsra and a brief period
of mvfr visibility. until then, becoming breezy after sunrise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
601 am edt tue apr 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening for much of southeast michigan. no severe
weather is anticipated.

- temperatures climb above seasonal normals on today (forecasted
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s), with even warmer air expected
for the end of the workweek.

- rain showers likely by friday evening with possible thunderstorms.
low confidence forecast for next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a few rounds of mid-high cloud are expected today, supporting vfr
conditions through most of the daylight hours. southerly flow veers
slowly to the southwest by 17z with an increasing low level jet to
produce gusty winds to 25 knots this afternoon. main focus of the
taf period is a cold front that settles into the airspace between
approximately 21z-03z. moisture convergence along the frontal zone
will help erode a capping inversion and steep mid level lapse rates
to support the development of showers and a lower chance for
thunderstorms with the frontal passage this evening. did not include
thunder mention in the taf at this time due to low confidence,
although timing of thunder aligns with the outgoing tempo shower
groups. the post-frontal airmass will be drier and more stable
aloft, with potential to trap moisture into a fog layer wednesday
morning.

for dtw/d21 convection...there is a low chance of thunderstorms this
evening between 23z and 03z as a cold front settles south across the
airspace. if thunderstorms do develop, they are not expected to be
severe.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning. medium
this evening between 23z and 07z.

* low for thunderstorms between 21z and 03z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 308 am edt tue apr 21 2026

discussion...

differential 1000-500mb geopotential height rises are now occurring
over the central great lakes as the composite trough is moving out
into the atlantic. significant warm advection episode has begun with
850mb temperatures rising some 5 degrees c between 06-12z this
morning. first item this morning is a minor, saturated, upright
frontal structure on the 298-308ks surfaces that will work across
the northern cwa. virga will likely show up on radar this morning,
but it is difficult to envision much in the way of qpe with forecast
soundings showing saturation limited to a highly stable layer
between 2.0 and 6.0 kft agl. notable moderation of surface
temperatures with afternoon readings in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees which will likely be some 20 to 25 degrees warmer than
yesterday. final item for the afternoon will be reservoir of
elevated instability, mucape of 250-500 j/kg, that will expand
eastward into southern portions of southeast michigan. subtle
shortwave anchored on the entrance region of midlevel jetlet feature
is forecasted to track directly across southeast michigan between 19-
01z. quite the tenuous forecast as direct cva appears to be enough
forcing for lift despite what really looks like residual stability
between 5.0 and 10.0 kft agl. thus, there really are questions about
the coverage and location of activity this afternoon with a subset
of hires cam data that has trended more bullish with
afternoon/evening activity. per model trends, expanded the chance
pops northward to include much more of the cwa. gusty winds will be
possible with lower column evaporation allowing for some downward
momentum fluxing. not expecting any strong or severe weather because
of low instability and a timing that appears to be just out of phase
with greatest surface based lapse rates. there does appear to be a
surface inversion particularly for eastern portions of the forecast
area.

cold advection trailing the wave of weak low pressure will push a
surface cold front to the south of the forecast area tonight.
moderation will still allow many areas to climb into the upper 60s
to lower 70s wednesday, however north surface winds will keep
conditions chilly for the thumb and areas downwind of the lake
huron. the overwhelming bulk of model guidance is dry for wednesday
but the gem and the hires canadian guidance is suggesting convection
will be possible wednesday evening over monroe and lenawee counties.
the solutions with precipitation suggest lake breeze forcing will be
possible. given the lack of development in the other guidance will
continue to go dry. expecting a dry air mass with very high cin in
the 3.0 to 10.0 kft agl layer.

high predictability exists for warm conditions thursday and friday
with high amplitude ridge expanding across all of eastern north
america. high temperatures thursday and friday are expected to be
well into the 70s for locations not in close proximity to lake
huron. high solution variance continues regarding next weekend,
therefore very low confidence in timing and duration of
precipitation saturday and sunday. the latest ecmwf is back to
suggesting a closed low or cutoff low remaining back across the
northern plains for at least the first half of the weekend. latest
timing suggests an occluded front pushing through the area early
saturday. very low confidence in the weekend forecast.

marine...

gusty south wind persists across the region today ahead of a weak
disturbance set to work through this evening into tonight. small
craft advisories remain in effect for the lake huron nearshore
waters where gusts of 25+ kt and wave heights of 4+ feet are
forecast through early afternoon before gustiness subsides. showers
and thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly across lake st. clair
and western lake erie, as the disturbance passes through. severe
weather is not likely. lighter wind follows on wednesday as weak
high pressure settles in. the next low begins to take shape over the
upper midwest midweek, eventually sending a warm front into the
great lakes late thursday into friday. this brings moderate
southeast flow and the next chance for showers and storms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......tf


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