Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
745 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers continue to exit through this evening, leaving a
period of dry and pleasant weather through wednesday.

2) potential for showers and thunderstorms returns wednesday
night into thursday ahead of a cold front.

3) intermittent potential for rain this weekend into early next
week, with a gradual warming trend beginning on sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
weak low pressure over the upper ohio valley this afternoon will
transfer to off the mid atlantic coast tonight into tuesday,
with high pressure building into the great lakes for tuesday and
wednesday. we will continue to gradually dry out through this
evening, though may not see significant clearing until later
tonight into early tuesday from west to east. tuesday and
wednesday will be dry and pleasant, though with potential for
some radiation fog tuesday night into early wednesday.

key message 2...
a low amplitude shortwave trough and associated weak low
pressure will track through the great lakes wednesday night
and thursday. this will lift a warm front across the local area
late wednesday night/early thursday, followed quickly by a cold
front thursday afternoon and evening.

potential for showers and perhaps a bit of thunder spread in
from the west wednesday night ahead of the approaching warm
front. there will be some support in the form of the exit region
of an incoming jet streak and modest low to mid-level warm air
advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with a bit
of elevated instability trying to advect in from the west. so,
not expecting a particularly widespread or heavy rain wednesday
night or early thursday but there`s enough to have a chance
mentioned. the cold front is favored to cross thursday
afternoon or early evening. models exhibit some disagreement
regarding the exact timing of the frontal passage and amount of
forcing for ascent with the shortwave passing just to our north
on thursday and exiting to the east later in the day. however,
the frontal timing during peak heating hours supports another
round of at least scattered showers and storms from roughly
sandusky to marion points east thursday afternoon and early
evening. mid-level lapse rates will likely be modest, though
sufficient heating could allow moderate instability to develop
with moderate deep-layer shear. overall, we are eying thursday
afternoon and evening for another round of at least scattered
convection across parts of our area. some potential for severe
weather may pan out, especially if the front is slow enough to
allow for convection to develop and begin maturing across
central and eastern portions of our area.

key message 3...
thursday`s front will likely settle into the ohio valley by
friday morning, and will waiver just to our south through the
weekend and early next week. while high pressure over the
northeast will try to keep us rain-free, waves tracking along
the front may lift it back far enough north at times to bring
rain potential, especially farther south across our area.
ridging aloft gradually starts building from the central and
into the eastern u.s. by early next week, signaling what should
be a gradual but more prolonged warming trend.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
the main low pressure system and cold front continues to push
out of the region this evening, leaving a rain-free and
overcast airspace. the mvfr ceilings are starting to decrease
from north to south but will remain a problem for the eastern
half of the area through the night with higher moisture and the
main upper trough still moving through and providing lift in that
area. conditions tonight are expected to even briefly lower to
ifr for keri, kyng, and kcak with the high low level moisture
remaining in the region. the main upper trough will push to the
east for tuesday allowing for high pressure to build in and dry
and generally clear conditions during the daytime hours. winds
will be northerly through the period, generally 10 kts or less.

outlook...non-vfr visibility expected on tuesday night with fog.
non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms wednesday night
into thursday, and again on friday night into saturday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions continue across the central and eastern
basin of lake erie into this evening, with waves remaining in
the 3 to 4-foot range and thus will keep the current headlines
in place. marine conditions will gradually improve through this
evening as north to northeast winds subside to around 10 knots
overnight. for the week ahead, generally quiet marine conditions
are expected with periods of light, onshore flow of 10 knots or
less expected through wednesday. winds will briefly become
south to southwest on thursday, 10 to 15 knots, before shifting
back to the northwest behind a cold front on friday, around 10
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...sefcovic
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
801 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

.key messages...

- large waves and dangerous currents are expected on southern
lake michigan beaches today. those visiting the beach are
advised to stay out of the water and away from piers.

- another round of rain is expected late wed into thu and a few
thunderstorms are possible. severe weather is not expected at
this time.

- temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the week
and will be above normal by sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

a dynamic low pressure system exiting the region is resulting in
improving conditions across the area. northerly winds wrapping
around the backside of the departing low will allow cooler,
drier air to filter into the region, keeping temperatures below
normal for the next few days. skies will clear from west to east
this evening, and good radiational cooling will bring overnight
lows in the low to mid 50s. tuesday will be mild with highs in
the mid 70s.

the low-level flow shifts to the southwest again on wednesday,
and warm air advection ahead of the next weather system will
facilitate highs in the upper 70s. showers and storms return
wednesday evening, but with only marginal shear and instability,
severe weather is not expected, although brief heavy downpours
are possible. scattered showers will remain possible thursday
through saturday as a series of shortwaves move through the
region. high pressure builds back into the midwest on sunday and
monday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 800 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

gusty north-northwest winds to begin this forecast period will
become light north this evening with boundary layer decoupling
and an expansive ridge of high pressure building in from the
west. wind gusts at ksbn have reached into the 25 to 30 knot
late this afternoon and these gusts appear to be aided by
passage of marine enhanced boundary. slow progression of upper
level height pattern will make for slow eastward migration of
this ridge axis. position of the ridge axis should be far
enough west to support northwest winds around 10 knots tuesday
afternoon. some higher gusts closer to 20 knots are possible at
ksbn mid-late tuesday afternoon with some potential marine
enhancement once again. otherwise, vfr conditions are expected
this forecast period with vfr low clouds diminishing this
evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 4 am cdt tuesday for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 5 am edt tuesday for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
617 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather expected tonight and tuesday.

- slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue through mid to
late week.

- the next chance of rain arrives wednesday evening and lingers into
thursday.

- warming temperatures this weekend with additional rain chances.

&&

.aviation...

period of dry and stable low level conditions will exist this taf
period as high pressure gradually increases influence. some
lingering pockets of high based vfr cloud will fade with time with
the loss of daytime heating this evening. limited coverage of
diurnal vfr cu will emerge again tuesday afternoon, as cirrus
briefly thickens overhead throughout the late day period. winds hold
from the north generally at 10 knots or less.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected tonight and tuesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

discussion...

low pressure peels away from the ohio valley toward the east coast
this evening, drawing the deeper column moisture along with it. this
has led to a gradual decrease in cloud cover from north to south,
although northeast flow off of lake huron maintains a healthy cover
of diurnal cumulus through the early evening. waning cyclonic
influence and inbound surface high pressure cause winds to back
northerly tonight, which helps shut off the lake influence in favor
of mostly clear skies overnight.

pair of pv anomalies over canada and ridging over sw conus govern
the height field through most of the week, maintaining a broad
longwave troughing pattern and seasonably cool conditions with
daytime highs in the mid-upper 70s. highest confidence in dry
weather is tuesday as pwat values drop to 0.6" with a deep layer of
static stability in the lowest 15.0 kft. main item of uncertainty
for tuesday is cloud cover, which may come in the form of high cloud
advecting in from the dakotas and/or a scattered boundary layer cu
field. mixture of sun and filtered sunshine thus expected for
tuesday.

trailing pv anomaly currently over saskatchewan reaches the
international border wednesday morning, leading to top-down theta-e
advection into lower michigan during the day. cloud cover thus
expected to increase, especially in the afternoon and evening.
remnant anticyclonic influence keeps much of the detroit area dry
through the daylight hours wednesday, with the best shot at earlier
rain chances for the saginaw valley/thumb on the nose of the upper
level jet streak. forecast soundings depict disjointed column
moisture through most of wednesday night, as moisture transport will
likely be disrupted to some degree by widespread convection over
southern conus. highest pops are thus anchored to the passage of the
cold front itself between 00z and 12z thursday. thunderstorms are in
play with this activity, although soundings are not particularly
impressive from a convective standpoint as lapse rates only briefly
peak around 6.5 c/km which caps mucape ~500 j/kg. in general most
areas see up to a couple tenths of an inch of qpf, although some
higher outliers exist mainly in solutions that bring the occluding
low directly overhead. lingering showers/a few thunderstorms
possible into thursday afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes
and the low stalls over lake huron.

drier conditions return for friday as surface high pressure and mid-
level ridging briefly build into the great lakes. still several
upstream shortwaves on deck, forming the next opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend. meanwhile, an anomalous low
arrives onshore the pacific northwest this weekend with decent
agreement in its timing between ensemble members and cluster
analysis. there are some differences in how deep it carves across
western conus, which will then impact downstream ridge amplification
over the eastern half of the country. while this generally signals a
warm up early next week, the magnitude of the warm up is uncertain.

marine...

as the upper ohio valley system continues to move east, the wind
really isn`t up enough to keep the sca for lake erie and will cancel
that early. the northeast wind will increase more than it is going
at 18z, specifically around 03z to 07z overnight, but not enough to
keep the sca. wind direction will continue to back north to
northwest in the wake of the low through the early week period as
high pressure builds in. lighter winds are expected tomorrow and
wednesday. winds will then increase to around 10 knots from the
south and southwest late wednesday and into thursday ahead of the
next low pressure and frontal system.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......rbp


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.