Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
718
fxus61 kcle 091741
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
141 pm edt wed sep 9 2026

.what has changed...
trends are for multiple rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, with scattered storms mainly in ne oh and nw pa
between 2 and 4 pm, then another more widespread round of
thunderstorms crossing west to east between 4 and 8 pm.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered thunderstorms will develop and impact ne ohio and
nw pa between roughly 2 and 4 pm followed by a more widespread
line between 4 and 8 pm. the main hazard is damaging winds, but
isolated tornadoes and localized flooding are possible.

2) showers linger mainly south of i-80 thursday before high
pressure brings dry, cooler, and less humid weather the rest of
the week.

3) warm, humid, and unsettled weather returns saturday into next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
following the theme of summer and now early meteorological fall
of 2026, yet another severe weather event is expected across ne
ohio and nw pa this afternoon and evening. afternoon visible
satellite and water vapor loops show a strong mid/upper
shortwave trough progressing from the upper midwest into the
great lakes. this is eroding the northern periphery of an
unseasonably strong mid/upper ridge centered over the se conus.
the surface low associated with the mid/upper shortwave is near
hudson bay and will progress east into northern quebec tonight,
dragging a cold front across our region. despite the surface low
being displaced so far north, plenty of jet dynamics will
accompany the mid/upper shortwave this evening to enhance height
falls and large scale ascent as well as to increase deep layer
shear. this forcing coupled with moderate instability (mlcape of
1000-1500 j/kg) will support a healthy line of convection.

in terms of timing and details, dying convection from last night
has left a band of showers over lower michigan, indiana, and
extreme nw ohio early this afternoon. this is setting up a
differential heating boundary/pre-frontal trough over nw ohio,
which will act as the main trigger to ignite the main line of
convection this evening as the shortwave and associated forcing
overspread the area. out ahead of this pre-frontal trough, a
lake breeze boundary may set up east of cleveland this
afternoon. forecast soundings do not have much of a cap to erode
since mid-level lapse rates are weak ( 5 to 5.5 c/km) and the
atmosphere is quite warm through the entire boundary layer, so
expect initial scattered convection to develop between 18 and
20z along the lake breeze and impact ne ohio and nw pa. a few of
these storms could produce damaging winds since strong surface
heating has created steep low-level lapse rates and resultant
high dcape over 800 j/kg. however, the main show will be with
the line of convection that develops on the pre-frontal trough
this evening. consensus among href cams and the rrfs is for this
line to develop from roughly the lake erie islands to marion
after 20 or 21z then propagate east through the cleveland and
akron areas around 23z and through nw pa by 01z. the
aforementioned instability coupled with deep layer effective
shear increasing to 40-50 knots will support bowing segments
capable of damaging winds. any bowing segments will also need to
be watched for isolated qlcs tornadoes since 0-3 km shear will
be over 30 knots and will try to orient normal to the line at
times. surface to 1 km shear of 20-25 knots also supports the
isolated tornado threat. finally, storm cell movement will be
fast (generally over 40 knots to the e and se), but any repeated
rounds of convection could result in locally excessive rainfall
and flash flooding since pwats are running unseasonably high
(1.7 to 2 inches) and soundings show a deep warm cloud layer.
this will mainly occur if parts of ne ohio and nw pa see heavy
rain from the initial scattered convection late this afternoon
before the main line crosses the region this evening.

key message 2...
there will be a break in the rain showers most of tonight behind
the line of convection, but a second mid/upper shortwave will
progress across the great lakes and upper ohio valley thursday.
the right entrance region of the mid/upper jet will lead to a
weak surface wave that will ride along the front, causing the
frontal boundary to briefly stall over northern or central ohio
thursday morning. this wave and right entrance ascent should
generate additional showers north of the boundary thursday
morning into the afternoon, especially along and south of i-80
and i-76. cams are in agreement with this, so increase pops from
12 to 18z. the front will finally push south behind this wave
late thursday afternoon and thursday night allowing a large
canadian high at the surface to build down across the great
lakes. this will bring dry and cooler, much more seasonable
weather for thursday night and friday.

key message 3...
unfortunately, the more typical mid september weather will not
last long as a warm, humid, and unsettled pattern looks to
quickly return this weekend. a couple of mid/upper troughs and
associated closed lows progressing into the pacific northwest
between saturday and wednesday will build an elongated mid/upper
ridge across the south central and se conus. this will allow
temperatures well into the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s
to around 70 to build back into the region saturday and largely
remain through wednesday. active quasi-zonal mid/upper flow
across the great lakes on the northern periphery of the
elongated ridge will send shortwave energy near or north of the
region at times interacting with a wavering frontal boundary,
and this will lead to at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms. at this time, the greatest chances for rain
appear to be saturday and tuesday, but timing individual chances
is low confidence in this pattern, so the main message is very
warm and humid with periodic showers/storms.


&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with deterioration to
non-vfr conditions possible this afternoon and evening in
showers and thunderstorms. maintained the previous timing for
tsra impacts at taf sites today given the latest guidance and
radar trends across the midwest. still some uncertainty in tsra
coverage and intensity today, though strong wind gusts (35+
knots) are likely with any storms that impact taf sites.
targeted higher wind gusts in the 40 to 50-knot range may be
needed in future updates if confidence in direct impacts
increases.

confidence is also increasing for a period of non-vfr
vsbys/ceilings following the convection overnight into thursday
morning. have introduced mvfr vsbys/ceilings at most sites for
the time being, but lower ifr conditions may be needed in future
updates.

winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction today,
increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range with periodic gusts of
20 to 25 knots possible later this afternoon.

outlook...additional scattered showers are possible through
thursday, generally along and south of the us-30 corridor. non-
vfr may return for the weekend in isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
there will be a brief window for a lake breeze this afternoon
with a east-northeast wind 5 to 10 knots and a light chop of
waves around a foot. southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots tonight, becoming west-southwesterly ahead of a cold
front on wednesday 15 to 20 kts. marine zones offshore of
cleveland and eastward will see wave of 3 to 4 feet. a small
craft advisory may be needed for wednesday. a broken line of
storms are expected ahead of the cold front late wednesday.
winds northwesterly 10 to 15 knots are expected in the wake of
the cold front wednesday night through thursday night with wave
heights 1 to 3 feet. high pressure will build over the lake on
friday with light northeast winds 5 to 10 knots and waves of 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
156
fxus63 kiwx 091723
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
123 pm edt wed sep 9 2026

.key messages...

- the muggy conditions will transition to cooler and less humid
later thursday and persist into the weekend.

- scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected into
early evening. a locally strong storm is possible mainly
southeast of i 69 between 2 and 6 pm edt.

- there is a moderate swim risk for northern berrien county, mi
beaches along lake mi today, and for all of berrien county, mi
and la porte county, in thursday. breaking waves and currents
are expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt wed sep 9 2026

main focus of forecast remains on transition from muggy and at times
wet conditions to a much more pleasant period later thursday through
the weekend and maybe beyond.

sort of a disjointed setup across the region with models continuing
to struggle on handling of current precip and evolution into the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. small lines of showers
have attempted to develop ahead of the band of rain from portions
of lower mi to near lk mi and points sw where pockets of clearing
and weak convergence gives just enough to pop the showers. by in
large these have weakened with the greatest potential area most
likely bisecting the cwa from sw to ne. ahead of the, spc meso shows
limited instability (500-1500 j/kg mucape) but best shear displaced
behind the instability. while models disagree on current handling of
key features, they all seem to have some semblance of agreement on
better potential for strong to severe storms just outside our area
from portions of ny and oh to the sw. newest spc dy1 outlook reflects
this with a further trimming on the nw fringe of the marginal risk
area. some sort of pops will be needed until the trough settles just
outside the area and becomes parallel to the flow and likely washes
out. the main cold front isn`t too far away (central u.p of mi to
eastern ia) but is going to move little until getting a better push
from the upper level trough moving in later tonight into thursday.
this trough may generate some additional storms across portions of
mo and il and could track along the boundary with a small chance of
surviving into our far southern counties. have left pops very
suppressed for now.

beyond thursday, high pressure takes over to bring much more
pleasant (and dry) conditions to the area through most, if not all
of the weekend. the upper level flow begins to shift once again next
week with heights increasing aloft in response to a wave pushing
across the dakotas early next week. models seem to agree on the bulk
of the energy from this being kept away from the area, but model
blend have thrown in periods of slgt chc to chc pops with the
greatest focus towards mid week.


&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1225 pm edt wed sep 9 2026

showers and a few isolated pockets of thunder developed earlier
this morning across northwest indiana. precipitation has been
somewhat slow to develop along a pre-frontal trough, with the
main cold front still lagging behind back in northern illinois.
expect additional scattered showers and storms with mainly low
end vfr to high end mvfr ceilings and visibilities prevailing
this afternoon. the main axis of instability is east of i-69 and
south of us 24, which is where i would expect any thunderstorms
to occur today with potentially gusty winds. rain should wrap
here around 20z at ksbn and around 22z at kfwa. as the cold
front passes through, winds shift from west at around 10 kts to
light out of the northwest. light winds continue overnight with
vfr ceilings gradually clearing. a mainly dry day is expected
thursday; a few showers and storms are possible south of us 24
but have kept kfwa dry for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
287
fxus63 kdtx 091017
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
617 am edt wed sep 9 2026

.key messages...

- showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms today.

- dry weather with near-normal, pleasant temperatures returns for
thursday and friday.

&&

.aviation...

an axis of deep layer moisture residing across southern michigan
within a broad diffuse frontal region will sustain occasional showers
today. this will be enhanced by weak mid level short wave impulses
rippling along this region of moisture. latest guidance suggests
limited instability will keep thunderstorm chances low (below 30
percent) and thus not mentioned in the tafs. gradual low level
moistening within the showers and pool of low level moisture
overhead will increase the chances for some intervals of low clouds
today. recent guidance suggests some mvfr with perhaps a few areas
of ifr impacting fnt and mbs late this morning into mid afternoon.
the chances for lower clouds (mvfr based) increase across the metro
detroit terminals late this afternoon. some potential breaks in the
showers this afternoon, especially across fnt and mbs, will offer
the potential for a little better diurnal mixing to support wsw wind
gusts over 20 knots at times.

d21/dtw convection...although a few embedded thunderstorms within
the broad region of showers are possible through the day today, the
better chances for more organized deep convection will be late this
afternoon and evening generally across the extreme southern portions
of the airspace and into northern ohio.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

* low for thunderstorms today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 311 am edt wed sep 9 2026

discussion...

scattered showers have spread across most of the area overnight as
the prefrontal moisture belt has arrived. 850-700 moisture advection
is bringing pwats over 1.7 inches already this morning with around 2
inches slated for this afternoon. warm sector profiles with a wealth
of moisture will lead to poor lapse rates through the day with
minimal cape values (max values around 200 j/kg). there has been no
lightning as of 06z in the vicinity, but there are some more
moderate showers reach up to around 35kft so with the addition of up
to a couple hundred j/kg of cape this morning and the low level jet
flaring up to around 40 knots through the morning and into the
afternoon, we could get a few thunderstorms. new spc day 1 continues
the former day 2 outlook with marginal risk of severe storms
clipping lenawee and monroe counties. this is the area that could
possibly draw up the most instability ahead of the cold front later
this afternoon to go with the ample shear present already. any
stronger storm may produce gusty winds with the strong flow just off
the deck, and damaging wind would be the primary threat with any
severe storms. heavy rainfall will also be a threat today with any
training cells due to high moisture content and potential training
along the prefrontal axis.

the prefrontal trough will clear the area by this evening with the
cold front following by morning. won`t see a big drop off in temps
thursday (mid to upper 70s) as the thermal trough lags behind the
front and will arrive later in the day thursday, but the dewpoint
drop off will make it feel more pleasant with lower humidity. the
thermal trough then hangs around a couple days to close out the work
week with 850mb temps around 10c. high pressure at the surface and
low amplitude longwave ridge will lead to a quiet couple days. next
chance of showers comes late saturday as the next cold front
approaches. at this point both the ecmwf and gfs stall the front
over northern mi with the bulk of the forcing holding to the north,
so will keep it at a slight chance for now.

marine...

moderate southwesterly winds set up this morning as seasonably
strong low pressure system tracks across southern canada into hudson
bay. while a gust or two two could reach entry-level gales over
central lake huron, winds are expected to peak around 30kts. small
craft advisories are in effect for the saginaw bay/tip of the thumb
through this evening as a result. return of a humid airmass back to
the region will support shower and thunderstorm chances for much of
the day before the attendant cold front crosses late evening.
moderate northwesterly flow follows for thursday however only a
glancing shot of cold advection and a rapidly diminishing gradient
has high pressure builds caps winds aob 30kts. high pressure then
drifts overhead through friday night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.