Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
644 pm edt wed jul 15 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
the potential for thick wildfire smoke continues to increase
tonight and thursday, and there is growing potential for it to
linger through at least friday. chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue to increase late friday and saturday, but
sunday has trended dry.

&&

.key messages...
1) hot conditions will continue through saturday, but the
humidity will temporarily drop for thursday and friday leading
to lower heat indices in the upper 80s to low 90s.

2) wildfire smoke to affect the region tonight and thursday
leading to poor air quality, which could linger through friday.

3) periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected friday
through mid next week. the greatest potential for organized
storms is late friday and saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the center of the anomalous 600 dam h5 ridge has shifted to a
position from the corn belt through the ohio valley this
afternoon, with satellite and water vapor loops showing a band
of moisture associated with convection dropping southeastward
through the northern and central great lakes on the northern
edge of this ridge. this band of clouds and scattered
showers/thunderstorms will continue to sag toward the area this
evening and tonight as a weak cold frontal boundary sags across
lake erie and nw pa and eventually through northern ohio by
thursday morning. strong mid-level capping is in place beneath
the ridge this afternoon characterized by 700 mb temps of 12 to
14 c and a defined eml, so despite strong instability (mucape
over 4000 j/kg on the latest mesoanalysis), not sure that the
weak approaching front can sufficiently breach the cap to get
any convection into our area. the 12z runs of the href and rrfs
backed off on the thought of isolated convection early tonight,
but given the instability, kept slight chance pops in the 00
through 06z timeframe for an isolated cell or two dropping
across the lake.

otherwise, the main impact of the weak cold frontal passage
tonight will be a 5 to 10 degree drop in dew points. air
temperatures will remain hot thursday and friday (mid 80s to low
90s), but the brief influence of surface high pressure building
into the northern and eastern great lakes will advect drier
low-level air into the area, keeping dew points in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. this will limit heat indices to the upper 80s/low
90s thursday and friday.

a strong mid/upper shortwave progressing from the northern
plains into the great lakes late friday and saturday will lift
the frontal boundary back northward as a warm front, and this
will bring the sticky air (dew points over 70 f) back into the
region for saturday to go along with one more hot day. more on
that system in key message 3 below.

key message 2...
the most unique element of this forecast is growing concern for
thick wildfire smoke tonight and thursday, possibly lingering
through friday. wildfires continue to burn in northern minnesota
and central ontario province, and visible satellite loops today
have been showing the smoke plume funneling east/southeast
across the northern and central great lakes and new england in
the nw flow on the northern edge of the mid/upper ridge. the
frontal boundary is helping to converge and bring this plume to
the surface, and surface observations and webcams in northern
lower michigan have shown very poor visibilities today. as the
frontal boundary sags into the area tonight and thursday, the
smoke plume is expected to sag in as well. the 12z hrrr and rrfs
were more aggressive with smoke density and visibilities late
tonight through thursday night, so smoke coverage has been
increased in the forecast during that time. this may support
visibilities as low as 1 to 3 miles at times, as well as very
poor air quality. people are encouraged to limit time outdoors
thursday. at least patchy smoke could linger friday given a
continuation of nw flow aloft, but confidence is lower beyond
the time range of the hrrr and rrfs, so kept it out of the
forecast friday for now.

key message 3...
as mentioned above, a strong mid/upper shortwave trough will
progress from the northern plains through the great lakes late
friday and saturday. this system will finally shunt the large
mid/upper ridge southwest into the southern plains and rockies,
with a strong cold frontal passage saturday evening or saturday
night. the old frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm
front friday night and early saturday in response to the
approaching shortwave and associated surface low. as this front
lifts back north, a 30+ knot low-level jet and associated strong
theta e advection could trigger an mcs across the central great
lakes friday night. depending on the evolution and track of
this complex, some showers and thunderstorms could spill into
the region friday night and early saturday. the more likely
timeframe for organized convection will be along and ahead of
the cold front saturday evening. moderate to strong instability
is expected in the warm sector, and given what looks like a
dynamic shortwave trough for mid summer (moderate to strong mid
level flow), severe weather and heavy rainfall is possible. the
amount of instability will be influenced by how much debris
cloudiness and showers get into the area saturday morning from
the prior mcs. given the set up, would anticipate our cwa to be
included in a future severe weather outlook from the spc for
saturday.

canadian high pressure will bring cooler, drier, and less humid
conditions sunday and monday, but chances for showers and storms
will return late monday and tuesday as another cold front drops
through the area. mid/upper troughing deepening across the
eastern conus through the middle of next week will allow
progressively cooler air to build in, and temperatures will be
below normal for a change.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
the main message for this 00z taf update will be vfr conditions
this evening but widespread wildfire smoke will move into the
area overnight through thursday. we have 3sm to 5sm haze and
smoke in the taf for all sites starting later tonight through
the day on thursday. there is some potential for pockets of ifr
smoke of 1sm to 2sm at times on thursday, especially across neoh
and nwpa. winds will be from the west this evening 5 to 8 knots
becoming northerly on thursday.

outlook...non-vfr visibility possible through friday due to
canadian wildfire smoke. non-vfr likely friday night through
saturday night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds across lake erie of 5-10 knots this afternoon
will diminish to 5 knots or less this evening in to the
overnight hours as a weak cold front sags south across the lake.
behind this boundary, winds will become northerly at 5 to 10
knots into thursday night, resulting in waves across the
nearshore to build to 2 feet or less. a warm front will lift
north late friday into early saturday, allowing for south-
southwest winds of 10-15 knots to develop. a cold front will
quickly follow late saturday into sunday with winds sustained at
10-15 knots but shifting to become more northerly. during this
period, waves across the central basin will build to 2-4 feet,
possibly needing a small craft advisory for part of sunday. an
active weather pattern continues into next week, resulting in
numerous wind shifts and periods of waves between 2 and 4 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>011-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
air quality alert from 7 am thursday to midnight edt thursday
night for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt
thursday night for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...77
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
629 pm edt wed jul 15 2026

.key messages...

- a heat advisory is in effect for today and then for a portion
of the area thursday. the threat for hot conditions continues
through the end of the week.

- hazy to smoky conditions possible later today from canadian wildfire
smoke.

- chances for showers and storms return late this week into this
weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt wed jul 15 2026

a backdoor front, which has had some uncertainty in previous model
runs around how far it gets into the area, is being modeled as
slowly pushing into the area tonight influencing thursday`s
temperatures and dew points to the cooler and drier side of the
scale. today`s dew points are being modeled as surpassing 70 degrees
and achieving the highest values of this time: reaching 75 degrees.
at the same time, today`s 850 mb temperatures reach at least 20c to
potentially as high as 23c (which can lead to 95f high temps on a
day with maximum mixing) on the ecmwf. for thursday, drier dew
points in the 60s to potentially more like upper 50s work in as 850
mb temps become more like 19 to 20c. because the ridge center works
more southeastward into the southeastern us and mid atlantic area, a
shortwave looks to wrap around the western edge of the ridge center
and gets into the southwestern portion of the area potentially by
the end of the day thursday, which could affect the area most
conducive to higher heat indices (that combo of temps and dew
points). even still, given continued heat, thought it prudent to
issue an advisory for areas most possible to reach 100 degrees on
thursday, our southern two tiers of counties in in. it also possible
that saturday, out in front of a cold front, ends up with a heat
advisory, but less certainty exists with the potential for showers
and storms. given how dry we`ve been and how warm the low to mid
levels are, perhaps a cap will exist to hold off convection.

the shortwave mentioned for thursday continues to move through from
west to south for friday as a trough moves north to southeast in the
northeast conus. this makes the area more conducive at least for
afternoon pop convection. enough instability appears to be around
make thunderstorms possible, but wind shear appears to be the
limiting factor for severe weather. a low level jet moves into the
area on saturday ahead of a cold front, which may increase the
severe weather chance, but cold pool strength and cell interactions
will probably be the main factor in creating severe weather as
opposed to normal shear-induced organization. another trough comes
through tuesday of next week and a low level jet is around the area
to potential provide organization, but again shear magnitude appears
weak. timing of the fropa and state of the warm sector also still
need more agreement.

high pressure looks to keep the area dry sunday and potentially
monday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 626 pm edt wed jul 15 2026

winds will become light and variable after sunset tonight and be
nearly calm during the day thursday. with a stagnant air
pattern, confidence is increasing that near surface smoke from
canadian wildfires will overspread the area from south to north
on thursday morning. visible satellite imagery has shown an
expansive, thick smoke plume gradually move south from the up of
michigan through the upper lower peninsula today. smoke may
arrive to ksbn prior to daybreak and should be at kfwa by 12z
tomorrow morning. near surface smoke is expected to reduce
visibilities, but how low they will get is still uncertain.
surface observations across upper lower michigan have been as
low as 1/2 mile today. started with prevailing 3 miles in the
tafs for now, but subsequent shifts may need to adjust
visibilities lower based on observations trends and confidence.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
air quality alert from midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight to
midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ thursday night for inz005>009-
012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-104-116-204-216.
heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt thursday for inz013-015-
020-022>027-032>034.
air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for inz020.
air quality alert until midnight cdt thursday night for inz103-
203.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
air quality alert from 7 am thursday to midnight edt thursday
night for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
air quality alert until midnight edt thursday night for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
632 pm edt wed jul 15 2026

.key messages...

- egle has declared an air quality alert today and extended it
through thursday due to canadian wildfire smoke reaching the surface
and the resultant rise in pm2.5.

- there is a slight chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening.

- increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms friday through
the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

dense canadian wildfire smoke will hamper what would typically be
tranquil aviation conditions. as a cold front now moving across the
metro detroit area from the northeast passes through during the
first hour or two from taf issuance, observational trends suggest a
drop to mvfr and ifr (with areas of lifr) resulting from the smoke.
area surface observations have shown the smoke impacting both
surface visibility and ceiling height as vertical visibility is
restricted. the hrrr model remains steadfast in holding the smoke
across lower mi through the day thursday. given the strong boundary
layer stability during the night, the tafs will reflect a more
pessimistic ifr (lifr at mbs) prevailing conditions. diurnal mixing
on thursday will offer the potential for more mixing and will thus
warrant prevailing mvfr during the daytime. subtle weakening of the
mid level cap and convergence along the cold front is resulting in
isolated convection early this evening, which may impact portions of
metro detroit during the first few hours of taf issuance.

d21/dtw convection...recent observational trends and latest hi res
model guidance indicate isolated convection now developing along a
cold front pushing across se mi. isolated convection will remain
possible (mainly across the western/northwestern and southern
portions of the airspace) through the evening before the front exits
to the south.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

* medium for ceiling/vertical visibility at or below 5000 feet
tonight and thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 pm edt wed jul 15 2026

discussion...

the southward advancing smoke plume remains the weather highlight in
this update. afternoon satellite and surface observations indicate
the leading edge of denser smoke near the i-69 corridor at forecast
issuance, tracking closely with the southward progress of the
surface cold front. model timing adjusts the leading edge timing
down to the ohio border closer to midnight. the air quality alert is
in effect now through tonight.

the timing of the front and advancing smoke has allowed most
locations outside of the northern thumb to warm up into the lower
and mid 90s, with lower to mid 70s td carrying heat index into the
advisory range above 100. the heat advisory has been cancelled for
the thumb but remains in effect until 8 pm for the rest of se mi.
the heat and humidity have also built up an impressive amount of
potential instability as hourly mesoanalysis shows mlcape climbing
into the 2000-2500 j/kg range. this has so far been held in check by
a fragile capping inversion in the 850-700 mb layer. href and refs
mean qpf suggest holding on to an isolated mention through the
evening with a few individual members showing initiation post 00z.

dry weather later tonight and in the morning allows wildfire smoke
to burrow into the region. impressive persistence of the plume
through thursday is shown in today`s hrrr model runs of near surface
smoke density over the great lakes. values observed today across the
northern great lakes are projected to hold over all of lower mi
thursday and thursday evening prompting extension of the air quality
alert. the smoke is shown to be strongly confined within the stable
boundary layer within the area of surface high pressure covering the
region. there is some potential for deeper boundary layer mixing in
forecast soundings thursday afternoon which aids in slowly
decreasing concentrations late in the day and thursday evening.
conditions are dry otherwise as the band of mid/upper level clouds
currently over the northern great lakes settles southward with less
coverage. cooler temperatures are the result when combined with the
smoke layer and northerly wind limiting factors that hold high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, toward the lower end of
guidance ranges. less humid air is also inbound post front carrying
surface td down to around 60 by thursday morning where it holds
through the day.

high pressure holds dry weather over the central great lakes for the
bulk of thursday night while the next low pressure system organizes
in the northern plains. this system initiates an active period of
showers and thunderstorms beginning with accelerated moisture
transport ahead of an inbound warm front friday. weekend time range
models then show the low moving across the northern great lakes
followed by the trailing cold front that is shown to be on the
active side while moving through lower mi.

marine...

a weak backdoor cold front continues south across the central great
lakes today and is approaching lake st. clair. this allows winds to
eventually veer toward the north-northwest behind the front. wind
speeds still only top out around 20 knots through this evening, more
so over the northern half of lake huron where the post-frontal
gradient is a bit stronger. dense smoke due to canadian wildfires is
spreading southward in the wake of the boundary, and is expected to
continue into the overnight hours. therefore, expanded the dense
smoke advisory to the rest of lake huron and also lake st. clair.
may need another extension for lake erie depending on where the
front ends up later this evening.

a couple pop-up storms are still possible along the frontal boundary
and/or lake breeze development late this afternoon and early
evening. the probability of severe weather with any isolated storms
is low. north-northwest winds at or below 20 knots expected again
thursday afternoon with the higher values over the northern half of
the huron basin. forecast confidence breaks down over the weekend
due to conflicting model guidance regarding the location and
magnitude of a weak surface low passing through lower michigan,
which will impact wind trends and thunderstorm potential. prevailing
winds should generally remain below headline criteria through the
forecast period, with one exception being marginal small craft
advisory gusts over saginaw bay and/or the thumb nearshores saturday
afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047-053-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...dense smoke advisory until 10 am edt thursday for lhz361>363-421-
422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...dense smoke advisory until 10 am edt thursday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.