Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
706 pm edt wed may 6 2026

.what has changed...
confidence has decreased in regards to the potential for frost
tonight across the area, resulting in no need for headlines at this
time.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler temperatures expected thursday before returning to near
normal by the end of the week. chilly nights may result in patchy
frost development.

2) widespread showers return for the end of the week into the
weekend before another below average temperature airmass returns
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cooler airmass associated with below average temperatures has
pushed into the area and is expected to persist through thursday
night. this high pressure system will be characterized by 850mb
temperatures falling to 0 to -2c, although it is uncertain how much
of this will translate to the surface. overnight lows tonight and on
thursday night should remain in the upper 30s to low 40s with the
warmest temperatures expected nearest the lakeshore. there is a bit
of uncertainty however is the progression and timing of clouds
overnight. in areas that see a period of clearing, enhanced
radiational cooling has the potential to lower these temperatures a
bit more, possibly resulting in patchy frost developing. the best
chance of frost remains west of i-71 and across nwpa both tonight
and thursday night, but will have to continue to monitor conditions
for the need of a headline. for the time being, a suggested
proactive action is to cover or bring indoors vulnerable vegetation
that has begun to bloom this spring.

key message 2...
as high pressure drifts east thursday night, a mid-level shortwave
trough will push east, providing some weak support for scattered
light showers to develop. the bulk of precipitation associated with
this end of week low pressure should occur on friday and friday
night. initially, shower development along a weak warm front will
push north across the area friday, followed by more widespread
precipitation friday night into early saturday. given the overall
timing of the frontal passages, chances of thunder remain minimal
and qpf totals should remain generally below 0.5" keeping any
flooding concerns at bay. this cold front boundary should stall just
east of the area, acting as a path for the next low pressure system
moving northeast late saturday.

this late saturday into monday system is expected to be a bit more
robust as an upper level trough dig south across the great lakes
region, providing good synoptic support for the surface low. in
addition, ample moisture advection coupled with a llj and support
from a strong jet aloft should result in widespread showers pushing
west to east on sunday into early monday. cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder on sunday as timing looks to be more convectively
favorable, but overall severe potential remains low at this point.

behind this sunday/monday system, temperatures look to return to
below average with highs once again in the 50s to low 60s through
tuesday and overnight lows dropping into the low 40s.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
vfr in broken high clouds is expected through tonight. vfr will
persist through thursday as high pressure builds over the
region, although scattered mid-level diurnal cumulus is likely
thursday afternoon. winds will be variable and remain under 10
knots tonight with west/northwest winds around 10 knots and
gusts to 15 to 20 knots expected during the day thursday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers thursday night into early
friday. periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected friday through the weekend, best chance friday through
saturday afternoon and during the day sunday.

&&

.marine...
overall mainly quiet weather conditions are expected on lake
erie through this weekend. high pressure is building over the
lake today and tonight. northwest to west-northwest winds of 5
to 15 knots is expecting this afternoon and tonight. winds will
become more westerly 5 to 15 knots on thursday. west to
southwest winds 10 to 15 knots is expected thursday night into
friday. southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will continue on
saturday. by sunday, a cold front will slide across the lake and
winds will turn northerly 10 to 15 knots. no marine headlines
are expected through this weekend at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
655 pm edt wed may 6 2026

.key messages...

- cold and dry tonight into early friday morning, with variable
cloud cover and lows falling into the mid to upper 30s. there
is a frost advisory in effect for michigan counties, where
areas of frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. patchy
frost is possible for in/oh counties, mainly north of us 6.

- chances for rain showers late thursday afternoon into friday
morning, mainly in michigan and for areas south of us 30.
highs will be in the mid-upper 50s, low 60s. lows in the 40s.

- better chances for rain friday afternoon into saturday
morning, then again saturday night into sunday. isolated
thunderstorms are possible for areas south of us 30 on friday
afternoon. highs will be in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s
saturday, and in the 60s friday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 404 pm edt wed may 6 2026

cloud cover will linger through late this evening, gradually
becoming more scattered or clearing all together. winds will remain
out of the west at 5 mph or less, with temperatures falling into the
mid to upper 30s (coldest in michigan counties inland from lake mi).
issued a frost advisory for the michigan counties tonight, with
areas of frost developing late tonight into early friday morning-
inland from lake mi. frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.
sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

patchy frost is possible in in/oh, mainly north of us 6 and west of
us 31--but temps will likely remain at 37 or above given cloud cover
is expected to linger longer (especially along/south of us 24).

otherwise, rain chances (20-40 percent) introduced for late thursday
afternoon and thu night-especially for areas south of us 30 and
further north in michigan counties. an upper level trough stemming
from a closed low over hudson bay will cross through during this
period. cold temperatures aloft will bring instability to the area,
with waa at the surface creating some weak isentropic ascent. this
could force showers along our southern cwa border by late afternoon--
where models suggesting a stationary front-like feature setting up
and producing shower activity through the night. additional activity
with the trough is possible in the michigan counties as well.
overall for both areas, have capped most pops at 20-30 percent (up
to 40 percent late thu evening) as models are greatly conflicted as
to the extent and exact location of the precipitation--moisture is
fairly limited-especially initially. the hrrr takes the boundary
further south of our cwa--which would drop our precipitation chances
all together--whereas the rap and the nam have a more robust feature
for areas south of us 30 (mainly in). otherwise, highs thursday will
be in the 50s and perhaps low 60s (warmest south of us 30). lows
will be in the 40s.

after a lull in precipitation friday morning into early afternoon, a
surface low will cross from southern il eastward into ohio. initial
precipitation chances friday afternoon into the evening will be
associated with warm air advection/isentropic ascent ahead of the
warm front, then with the deformation zone on the backside of this
low friday night into early saturday morning. have chances around 40-
70 percent, with the best chances along/south of us 24 fri evening.
there are low chances for thunderstorms (non-severe) south of us 30
friday afternoon.

saturday we`ll see a brief ridge of high pressure at the surface
with gusty southwesterly flow. highs will climb into the upper 60s
and low to mid 70s, warmest south. the low over hudson bay sinks
southward into james bay-so we`ll see several precipitation chances
with each passing trough/shortwave rippling through the flow. there
are low chances (20-30 percent) for showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late sat afternoon and evening, then better chances for
rain overnight into sunday (40-70 percent) as the main trough axis
swings through. high temps on sunday will drop back into the 60s.

mostly dry and cooler monday into early tuesday, with highs in the
60s. another wave will bring additional chances for rain (30-60
percent) by tue afternoon into wed. isolated storms are possible tue
afternoon-evening.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 653 pm edt wed may 6 2026

visible satellite imagery shows a mix of mid and high level
clouds passing through this evening. vfr ceilings are expected
to persist with cloud bases at 7000 ft or higher. winds out of
the west will gradually relax, becoming light and variable after
03z tonight. dry conditions prevail through thursday afternoon;
there may be a few showers after 18z but have left any mention
out of the tafs for now due to low confidence in exact
locations. west winds will pick up in accordance with daytime
heating becoming sustained around 10 kts between 15-16z
thursday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am edt thursday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
708 pm edt wed may 6 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect for most of se michigan outside metro
detroit where lows drop into the 30s tonight.

- mainly dry tonight and thursday, but isolated late afternoon
and/or evening showers are possible.

- temperatures recover over the weekend with potential for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

favorable aviation weather is highlighted by a gradual cloud
decrease and light westerly wind tonight followed by a return of vfr
clouds mostly above 5000 ft thursday afternoon. this cloud response
is tied to the next in a series of smaller scale mid level
circulations that move overhead around the southern fringe of the
large hudson bay trough that holds position through late week. a
boost from renewed afternoon instability results in broken to
overcast vfr ceiling that lingers into thursday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 pm edt wed may 6 2026

discussion...

numerous shortwaves observed via mid level water vapor imagery this
afternoon, stretching from the northern plains into northern
manitoba. these waves are embedded within the larger scale troughing
pattern that surrounds a closed hudson bay low and will be
responsible for below normal temperatures and an unsettled/low
predictability pattern through the weekend.

visible satellite imagery shows healthy coverage of diurnal cu this
afternoon, while high cloud filters in aloft in the presence of a
strengthening ~150 knot jet streak that is pushing into the ohio
valley. a band of virga is observed via mrms composite radar at the
nose of the jet streak, although the 12z kdtx raob and subsequent
forecast soundings depict a deep layer of mid-level dry air to
prevent this from reaching the ground. nonetheless, cannot
completely rule out a stray shower this evening mainly as the lead
shortwave pivots across the great lakes and briefly moistens the mid-
levels. loss of diurnal heating and negative vorticity advection
allow clearing for a few hours before daybreak which sets up a
period of radiative cooling. this aligns with the arrival of the
thermal trough in which h8 temperatures drop to -5 to -10 c, with
forecast lows in the mid-30s. a frost advisory has been issued for
most of se michigan as a result.

thursday forecast will be similar to today, with below normal
temperatures only in the mid 50s even with pockets of solar
insolation in the morning. inverted-v soundings suggest another dry
day, even with slightly deeper boundary layer moisture and diurnal
cloud development.

lower predictability in the pattern exists thursday night into the
weekend as the embedded waves over canada release into the great
lakes. deep moisture will still be hard to come by given the
northern stream influence aloft, although gradual moisture
improvements are expected in the low levels as the surface high
drifts toward the mid-atlantic and return flow develops upstream.
lead edge of warm advection arrives thursday night, creating the
next chance for showers and bringing a warmer airmass into the region
friday (low 60s)-saturday (upper 60s). a more focused opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend as a cold front
sweeps across se michigan. enhancements to the low level jet ahead of
the front will lead to breezy southwest flow saturday. drier and
cooler conditions then return for early next week in the post-
frontal regime.

marine...

minimal marine concerns in the next few days as we are locked in
with a broad upper level trough through that time. weak pressure
gradient at the surface will keep winds light, generally under 20
knots through friday. there will be several weak systems over the
region during this time as well but really only amounting to low
chances of precipitation. the next notable cold front will come
through on saturday bringing increased winds and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt thursday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068-069-075-082.

lake huron...none.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...mv
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.