Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
608
fxus61 kcle 130714
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
314 am edt thu aug 13 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) patchy fog is possible this morning.

2) scattered showers expected tonight through friday generally
near or west of i-77.

3) periodic thunderstorms are expected saturday night through
sunday evening. there is a low risk for severe weather,
especially sunday afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
moist surface conditions due to yesterday`s rain, and light
surface winds with weak high pressure overhead will result favor
fog formation this morning. patchy fog is possible across
portions of the forecast area, especially for our southwest
counties (e.g. hancock to knox counties) where there could be
greater coverage of fog.

key message 2...
the stationary front that has been impacting the broader region
has sagged south towards the lower ohio valley. a series of
mid-level shortwaves are expected to traverse the broader
northwest flow, with additional rounds of convection expected.
the latest high resolution models have thunderstorms with heavy
rain displaced to our southwest, with mainly rain showers
affecting parts of northern ohio tonight into friday. this is
generally west of i-77 with our southwest counties (hancock to
knox counties) seeing the best shot at rain showers.

key message 3...
low pressure moves eastward across the great lakes region,
lifting a warm front across the area saturday night. the entire
forecast area will be within the warm sector on sunday, with
very humid conditions expected. a couple rounds of thunderstorms
are expected with this system.

the first round of thunderstorms is expected with the warm front
saturday night, generally moving west to east. this is most
likely to occur overnight, though a few models do linger this
activity into the morning ours, depending on the speed in which
the warm front lifts across the area. there is a low risk for
severe weather.

additional convective development is expected sunday afternoon
and evening. high instability along with modest mid-level shear
may produced an organized severe weather threat. as always,
there is some uncertainty with timing/location of greatest
severe weather threat but this time frame is worth keeping an
eye on.

the cold front sweeps through sunday night with high pressure
building in on monday and tuesday.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
the main concern this morning is once again fog as an inversion
sets up over wet ground. mid-level clouds give some uncertainty
in how widespread the fog will be, but continued to bring in
lifr visibilities at typical favored locations (kfdy, kmfd,
kcak, and kyng) and mvfr to ifr elsewhere. once the fog burns
off this morning, it will take some time for cigs to improve, so
kept mvfr cigs through late morning or early afternoon. vfr is
then expected from mid afternoon through tonight as high
pressure nudges into the great lakes. the band of showers this
evening and tonight over southwestern areas is trending farther
southwest, so limited vcsh to kfdy.

light and variable winds early this morning will become w to nw
at 5-10 knots by late morning through the afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
saturday afternoon into sunday.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through the start of
the weekend as pressure gradients will be weak. light and
variable winds today and tonight will become ene at 5-10 knots
friday and friday night as high pressure briefly strengthens
across the great lakes before turning se at 5-10 knots saturday
as a warm front approaches the lake. winds will turn sw and
increase to 15-20 knots by sunday behind the warm front as the
gradient tightens in response to low pressure moving east
through the central great lakes. this low will drag a cold front
across the lake sunday night, turning winds nnw at 10-15 knots
for late sunday night and monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
437
fxus63 kiwx 130540
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
140 am edt thu aug 13 2026

.key messages...

- patchy fog is expected this morning and may be dense in spots.

- there is a 30-50% chance of storms late this afternoon but
severe weather is not expected.

- more widespread, heavy rain is possible late tonight into
early friday morning, especially south of us-30 where a lot of
rain has already fallen. a flood watch remains in effect there
through friday morning.

- more storms are possible over the weekend but the potential
for heavy rain and flooding will be lower.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 140 am edt thu aug 13 2026

a welcome (even if brief) respite from rain this morning. main
concern in the immediate near term is potential for some fog
again this morning given light winds and ample near-surface
moisture. complicating factor this morning is large area of
stratus that developed earlier. this stratus is dissipating but
guidance struggled to capture this and subsequently the modeled
widespread, dense fog is very much in question. will continue to
monitor closely through the morning but not seeing enough
signals to warrant a dense fog advisory just yet.

unfortunately, chances for rain return quickly later today and
especially tonight as we remain in the "ring of fire." the first
feature of interest is an mcv associated with convection presently
over ne/sd. the feature will track into our cwa during the late
afternoon with our next chance of rain. however, we continue to see
a step downward in midlevel lapse rates, low level theta-e
advection, and subsequent instability (much like yesterday was a step
down from the day before). the llj is much weaker this morning
(evidenced by near total lack of convection in our region) and
surface obs/mesoanalysis suggest yesterday`s activity nudged the
front slightly further south. even seeing some n/ne flow at 850mb
into our northern cwa. all of this to say that the afternoon
activity is expected to remain weak as it enters our cwa. some
gusty winds can`t be entirely ruled out though, as well as some
brief heavy rain in an area that really can`t take anymore.

the far greater concern will be what happens late tonight/early fri.
another shortwave ejects into the central plains and once again
strengthens the downstream llj. another round of strong low level
theta-e advection is anticipated, though there is still some spread
regarding just how strong between the nam and other hi-res guidance
vs. lower-res global models. regardless of the details, the stage is
set for another round of very heavy rain roughly 04-12z fri morning.
the exact placement remains somewhat uncertain this far out but a
concensus blend would put the highest probabilities squarely over
the same area already hit hard in our far southern cwa and
ind`s n/ne cwa. our flood watch was already extended through fri
morning given this potential and high sensitivity to any rain
south of us-30. an argument could be made to remove the tier of
counties right along us-30 but confidence is too low to get
that surgical at this point.

there is some light at the end of this tunnel though. the
eastern canada upper low keeping our region on the northeast
fringe of this ridge finally releases eastward allowing the
ridge (and associated storm track) to (temporarily) lift
northward. storms remain in the forecast for sat but should be
much more progressive and focused more in our northern cwa vs.
south. the ridge then breaks down completely by late sunday as a
cold front crosses the area. here again, some storms possible
but weaker, more progressive and overall just a different setup
that is less conducive for heavy rain. cool and dry conditions
then expected mon through at least early wed.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 140 am edt thu aug 13 2026

another challenging aviation forecast this morning due to light
winds and very moist surface conditions that could yield fog and low
stratus as suggested by several models. however, these models failed
to capture the 5 kft stratus deck that has limited the fog development
so far. this high-based stratus is rapidly dissipating though and
there could still be a period of ifr conditions this morning. more
storms are then possible late this afternoon and into the overnight,
especially at kfwa, though confidence in exact timing and coverage
remains on the low side.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through friday morning for inz012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-116-203-216.
oh...flood watch through friday morning for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
104
fxus63 kdtx 130800
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
400 am edt thu aug 13 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry weather expected through saturday with seasonably warm,
but humid, conditions.

- showers and thunderstorms return late saturday into sunday.

&&

.discussion...

minimal adjustments to note regarding the synoptic pattern today as
broad ridging persists with quick northwest flow aloft. geopotential
heights rise slightly over southeast michigan as the longwave axis
becomes reestablished further west, closer to the rockies.
positioned downstream of the apex, mid-level geopotential heights
over lower michigan appear largely unchanged, if not slightly
higher, while lower column subsidence offer confidence in mainly dry
conditions. as has been the case for most of the week, near surface
moisture remains pervasive, marked by dewpoints in 60s. surface-
based instability faces a challenging unlock process warmer mid-
levels translate into poor lapse rates of less than 6 c/km. latest
nwp solutions indicate meager mucape on the order of 250-500 j/kg.
weak cva activated by perturbed flow aloft is not expected to
suffice in triggering any meaningful convection, although a few
isolated narrow-diameter showers cannot completely be ruled out,
especially with any favorable lake breeze interactions. as for the
fate of upstream mcs activity moving from the plains into portions
of the midwest, low-end potential exists for a glancing pass at the
southern portion of the cwa this evening or early tonight. should
this materialize, it would mainly affect locations south of i-94 as
evidenced by the slower and more eastward trajectory of the 13.05z
hrrr, compared to the 00z run.

low convective potential again friday as flow weakens aloft and the
ridge gets flattened by a digging canadian shortwave. similar
temperature trend as 850 mb temperatures linger in the mid teens,
resulting in highs around the mid 80s. surface high pressure over
ontario will have a weak hold on gradient flow locally, becoming
northerly composed. precipitation chances will be dictated by
upstream convective evolution, mainly along the same ohio border
vicinity zone. a moist low-level jet approaches saturday night along
a warm front leading to a sharp theta-e surge as low pressure lifts
in from the southwest. potential exists for organized convection
with the initial front, and again with a trailing cold front through
sunday. winds shift from south to northwest behind the front with a
brief reprieve in temperatures and dewpoints for monday and tuesday.

&&

.marine...

a stalled front near the southern michigan border will continue to
be a focus for showers and thunderstorms as systems ripple along the
boundary. the next chance coming later tonight for lake st clair and
lake erie being closer to the stalled front. could see some storms
go up around the thumb later this evening too as lake breeze
boundaries activate. outside of any convection, high pressure to the
north of the front will provide generally light northwesterly winds
through tonight at 10 knots or less. with the lighter winds, there
are some weak signals for patchy dense fog over lake huron at times,
through confidence remains low. on friday, the high pushes eastward
across the central and eastern great lakes which will favor an
uptick in northeast winds. winds then turn southerly late saturday
and increase to around 20 knots ahead of a cold front saturday night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1228 am edt thu aug 13 2026

aviation...

system relative isentropic downglide has led to quiet weather over
southeast michigan this evening. weak flow with high surface based
humidity and evapotranspiration brings the potential for fog
development again late tonight and daybreak. uncertainty exists with
the likelihood for ifr or lifr conditions but mos guidance does
support some fairly significant visibility restrictions. ridging
over the great lakes region will bring mainly precipitation free
conditions to southeast michigan. a dry atmosphere between 2.5 and
5.0 kft agl is expected to result in a persistence of static
stability through the late afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated at dtw during the
forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and thursday.

* low for thunderstorms this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......drk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.