Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
342
fxus61 kcle 310748
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
348 am edt mon aug 31 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat builds into the region today through wednesday as
temperatures climb to well above normal with heat indices in the
mid 90s to low 100s.

2) rounds of thunderstorms are possible this evening through friday
with low confidence in location and timing.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level ridge will build into the southeastern conus today
and persist through friday. this will allow for an influx of
southern humidity and heat to move into the region as low level flow
with generally be southwest to westerly. 850 temperatures are
expected to climb in to the upper teens by tuesday and peak around
20-22c wednesday. surface temperatures as a result will start the
week in the mid to upper 80s today and climb into the low 90s for
tuesday and wednesday. dew points will increase as well to the upper
60s to low 70s resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s.

key message 2...
with the upper level ridge in place, there will be multiple
shortwaves moving along the northern periphery bringing energy to
produce rounds of thunderstorms through friday. with the elevated
heat and humidity in place over the region, this will help provide
ample instability to go along with northwesterly oriented bulk shear
vectors of 30-40 knots. there`s still some uncertainty in how the
amplified the ridge will be and locations of the shortwave vort
maxes as they move across the great lakes region. the highest
confidence for thunderstorm chances will be across ne oh and nw pa
throughout the week, though elsewhere will still have chances to see
thunderstorms. this is outlined within the spc`s day 2 severe
weather outlook for tuesday with a marginal risk for the majority of
the cwa and a slight risk for far eastern nw pa. this aligns well
with models location of the vort max moving through the great lakes
on tuesday, though the better environment will be to the east in pa
and ny. with the uncertainty mentioned above, will need to monitor
how this feature develops to have a better idea of impacts to the
cwa.

the next round of thunderstorms will be late wednesday night into
thursday morning as a low pressure system moves through the northern
great lakes. this will drag a cold front across the region and given
the timing of it being overnight, the severe weather potential will
be lower, though will not be zero. the upper level ridge will begin
to retreat on thursday into friday to the west over the south-
central conus. thunderstorm and severe weather chances will decrease
into the weekend, though a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
will still be possible on friday with a shortwave moving
through.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
very light showers will move across northern ohio overnight,
with mostly vfr conditions, as a weak upper trough slides east
under the ridge. meanwhile, a quasi-stationary boundary remains
draped from michigan, across lake erie, and into southwestern
pa, providing an focal point for continued rain and embedded,
high based thunderstorms. this will continue at times through
the day monday, primarily impacting keri. southerly winds will
shift southwesterly by mid-day tomorrow, as high pressure over
the carolinas remains fully entrenched, and remain 10kts or
less. high vfr cumulus is likely to develop in the hot, humid
atmosphere under the high, with ceilings around fl100.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are possible tuesday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across far northeast oh and
northwest pa. unsettled conditions, with von-vfr in showers and
thunderstorms, are expected wednesday through friday.

&&

.marine...
marine weather will be unsettled and stormy at times during
this week, especially wednesday and thursday. a warm front has
stalled out just north of the area this week with multiple
rounds of storms possible. outside of severe thunderstorms on
the lake this week, winds will generally be from the southwest 5
to 15 knots with waves 1 to 2 feet. the 10 to 15 knots winds
will favor the midday and afternoon hours this week, and will
mostly be over open waters. any organized convection, gust
fronts, and outflows from storms may cause rapid changes in
marine weather conditions. no marine headlines are anticipated
this week on the lake at this time, but continue to monitor
forecasts for up to date information.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
238
fxus63 kiwx 311034
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 am edt mon aug 31 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
be possible again today, but low confidence in extent of
coverage.

- isolated thunderstorms are possible tuesday afternoon and
again wednesday afternoon and evening, with the greatest
chances north of us route 30. there is a marginal risk of
severe storms both days, but confidence in isolated severe
storms is low at this time.

- hotter and more humid conditions build through midweek,
peaking tuesday into wednesday when afternoon heat indices may
reach to around 100 degrees. heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100 may linger into thursday mainly to the south of us
route 30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 335 am edt mon aug 31 2026

coverage of light showers has diminished as of 06z as ridge of lower
low-mid level theta-e air has advected into northeast il/northwest
in. a ribbon of much higher low-mid level theta-e air is already
rapidly advecting back across north central illinois and is expected
to nose into lake michigan vicinity, far nw in, sw lower mi
through daybreak. isentropic progs in the 310-315k layer do
show a decent signal of stronger isentropic ascent closer to 12z
across far northeast illinois into southwest lower michigan
eventually shifting across far northern in/southern lower
mi/northwest oh this afternoon. approach of this higher low
level theta-e air today will finally mark an uptick in more
respectable low level moisture transport into the local area
along with the leading edge of some steeper mid level lapse
rates. along with this advection will come warmer mid level
profiles that will likely make sfc based convection difficult to
come by locally. nonetheless, did continue scattered pops today
to account for this more substantial advective push, although
coverage remains an item of somewhat lower confidence with
uncertainty in how warmer mid level profiles will affect shower
potential.

by mid afternoon into this evening, attention will turn to an upper
level short wave which has ts origins from southwest conus as
it continues northeast from the central plains. isentropic progs
of the same 310-315k layer do show a quick increase in strength
of isentropic lift across northern illinois mid-late afternoon
shifting into northern in late afternoon/evening. this secondary
round of forcing could result in another round of isolated-
scattered showers, particularly across the north. mucapes over
1000 j/kg are possible this afternoon, although there will
likely be some cin in a 100-mb mixed layer sense. severe weather
is not expected today.

the main story for today will be the increased heat/humidity.
moisture advection today should result in increasing sfc dew points
to the lower 70s. mixing heights remain quite shallow today
under the influence of the warm advection, but even mixing up
to 900 mb would support highs in mid 80s to around 90. this
combination of temps/dew points should push heat indices into
the 90 to 95 range, although like yesterday will have to monitor
how convective trends/cloud cover impact hourly temps/heat
indices.

the aformentioned central plains vort max should push across
northern indiana tonight with a continued potential of
isolated/scattered showers in the evening in a zone of
preceding isentropic ascent. late tonight confidence wanes in
shower potential as warmer mid level profiles become more
established. one interesting item to note in higher res
guidance is development of convection late tonight across corn
belt in right entrance region of upper midwest jet streak, and
at the nose of weak to modest low level jet impinging on the
strong 925-800 mb theta-e gradient. some cams attempt to bring
this convection across northeast il into southern lower mi
toward midday tuesday, but confidence in this scenario is very
low given possibility that convection may remain more elevated
and take a northward route. some indications in guidance that a
weak mid level trough (possibly convectively enhanced) could
dampen the mid level heights/temps just a bit by tuesday
afternoon to cause some concern for isolated storms developing
in what could be moderately to strongly buoyant environment.
there should be some decent westerly deep layer shear across far
northern in/southern lower mi tuesday afternoon (~30-35 knots).
main item of uncertainty is a forcing mechanism on tuesday, as
the potential weak mid level trough could exit early in the
afternoon with some subtle mid level height rises later in the
day. given this low confidence scenario have included some
slight chance pops tuesday across the north, with a potential of
an isolated strong to severe storm (wind/hail) due to
background shear/instability.

for wednesday, the stronger negative upper height anomaly across
ontario will shift into western quebec helping to drive a cold
frontal boundary across central lower michigan during the day.
instability/shear profiles could potentially support another day of
at least an isolated severe risk, but a good deal of uncertainty
exists again wednesday dealing with the fact stronger mid/upper
level forcing may be vacating the area late in the day, and some
question as to existence of any weak to moderate surface based cin
into early evening.

an item of higher forecast confidence for tuesday and wednesday
continues to be the potential of heat indices around the 100 degree
mark for much of the area. forecast thermal profiles support highs
around 90 on tuesday and in the low to potentially mid 90s
wednesday, which combined with dew points in lower 70s could
push heat indices past the 100 mark. heat headlines could very
well be needed for both of these days. cool front will lose some
integrity across southern great lakes on thursday as the
stronger forcing shifts across se canada, so another day of heat
headlines does appear possible especially south of us route 30
on thursday.

no significant changes have been made to the longer term period
with reasonable agreement in medium range guidance of re-
amplification of longwave pattern, and building central conus
ridge that would keep warmer low level profiles west of the
area, and a gradual day to day cooling heading into the weekend.
additional chances of precip would likely accompany this
pattern with some additional nw flow waves possible given ridge
positioning.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 625 am edt mon aug 31 2026

a mid level ridge axis is tracking across the western great
lakes this morning as the short wave trough which enhanced
light rain last evening has shifted into central ohio.
strengthening warm/moist advection is working eastward around
the low/mid level ridge and isentropic lift across far ne il/se
wi has resulted in an increase of elevated showers with some
embedded thunder. the zone of strongest isentropic lift is
expected to migrate east-northeast across lower michigan, but
some scattered showers do appear possible at ksbn in the 14z-17z
timeframe. will likely hold off of tsra inclusion at this time
for the 12z tafs, but cannot completely discount enough elevated
instability present for an isolated storm at ksbn in the 14-16z
timeframe. first advective forcing shot should shift east late
morning/early afternoon, but some renewed isentropic upglide is
expected upstream across northern il as a small scale wave lifts
east/northeast out of the plains/corn belt. this could bring
another round of isolated-scattered rain showers to northern
indiana this evening, but confidence in this round of scattered
rain showers is lower due to increasing mid level warmth that
could suppress shower activity. otherwise, light south winds
will become southwest 10 to 15 knots with some gusts into the 15
to 20 knot range possible this afternoon. vfr conditions should
hold through this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
910
fxus63 kdtx 311346
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
946 am edt mon aug 31 2026

.key messages...

- periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
much of the week. tuesday carries a marginal risk for severe weather
with wednesday evening carrying a marginal to slight risk.

- warm and humid conditions develop through mid-week. daily peak
temperatures will depend on cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.update...

like yesterday morning, have increased pops as tropical moisture
(12z dtx sounding indicating 7 c dew pt at 700 mb) has supported a
thick canopy of clouds once again with healthy coverage of high
based showers as a shortwave tracks through lower michigan.
instability continues to be meager, preventing flooding rainfall and
limiting coverage of thunderstorms. made no adjustments to maxes, as
forecast is lower than mav/met/ecs guidance and certainly the right
direction with extensive cloud cover taking much of the day to thin
out.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 430 am edt mon aug 31 2026

aviation...

any rain chances for this morning and afternoon will be derived from
the activity ongoing across eastern wisconsin into lake michigan.
activity is not as robust as yesterday, but some isolated to
scattered coverage is now being observed west of lake michigan. if
coverage continues to increase and expand, rain showers will likely
target se mi this morning and into the late morning/early afternoon
hours. isolated thunderstorm development will be possible with any
activity this morning and afternoon, but the limited instability,
will continue to preclude thunderstorm mentions in the tafs. a second
round for showers and thunderstorms will again be possible in the
afternoon and evening, more favorable across southern michigan (metro
terminals), but only a small subset of hi-res models showcase this
possibility at this time.

d21/dtw convection...the presence of instability aloft tonight will
support a low chance (<30 percent) of convection across the airspace
this morning and afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms this morning and afternoon.

prev discussion...
issued at 400 am edt mon aug 31 2026

discussion...

an unsettled/active weather pattern is expected to set up over
southeast michigan through this week as we reside on the north end
of a flattened mid/upper level ridge. the center of this ridge will
be slow moving across the mid mississippi river valley and over the
oh/tn river valleys over the next several days. quasi-zonal mid-
level flow and southwesterly low level flow will allow for a
persistent warm and moist airmass across the region. this will help
support near daily shower and thunderstorm chances throughout most of
the week as shortwaves waves and frontal/baroclinic zones capitalize
on the favorable warm and humid environment.

for today, a warm front will be the focus for scattered showers this
morning into the afternoon. there will be a decreasing precipitation
trend with time today as the front is drawn northward by the
progression of the midwest low pressure system. low level jet
forcing over the front will kick off the highest coverage of chance
pops this morning through 18z this afternoon. not expecting a severe
thunderstorm threat as instability will be limited with poor cape
depth and mucape values of less than 500 j/kg. the threat of heavy
rainfall has decreased to some degree with this additional round of
precipitation across the thumb, especially with the break in
precipitation last evening. qpf through 18z this afternoon offers
0.25-0.50" of rainfall with some model support for up to an inch
possible across the portions of the thumb. warmer airmass pushing
into southeast michigan today with 850 mb temperatures towards 20c
will support highs towards the mid 80s if enough clearing can occur
post morning activity.

better instability will build across the area on tuesday with a weak
cap present. href highlights mean surface cape values increasing to
2000+ j/kg during the afternoon. steeper mid-level lapse to around 7c
and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-45 knots will be more than
supportive of more organized convection if any activity is able to
develop. hi- res models showing a bit of variety in both timing and
overall convective response, so tuesday still carries a degree of
uncertainty with the better forcing mechanism ill-timed with the
better diurnal instability. given the favorable environment, any
storm that can develop should be able to mature and be capable of a
severe wind and hail threat along with heavy downpours. spc has
maintained a marginal risk for severe weather across all of southeast
michigan given the favorable environment.

wednesday looks like the best chance to be the warmest day of the
week if the higher coverage of clouds and precipitation hold further
to the north. this could push temperatures in the afternoon to around
90 degrees. as with most of the days this week, any higher coverage
of precipitation and clouds will temper nbm forecast highs. cold
front and height falls forecast to arrive late wednesday
afternoon into thursday bringing additional chances for showers
and thunderstorms. favorable environment for strong to severe
thunderstorms will again be in place with mlcape values to 2000+
j/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable shear that will
pose a wind and hail risk.

marine...

several days of unsettled weather as a primary low pressure system
over central canada and secondary low over the northern plains send
a series of fronts across the region. periodic showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the fronts while the slightly cooler air
over the waters brings chances of waterspouts with the storms over
the lakes. winds will largely be from the southeast today with max
gusts up to 20 knots. winds turn briefly westerly on tuesday before
turning back to the southwest on tuesday night.

hydrology...

another round of showers and thunderstorms this morning to the early
afternoon mainly north of the i-69 corridor, particularly across the
thumb. average rainfall totals are in the 0.25" to 0.50" range with
localized areas up to 1 inch possible this morning until early
afternoon. flooding threat has decreased compared to yesterday, but
localized minor flooding of roads and poor-drainage areas will be
possible if repeated rounds of heavier downpours occurs. isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on tuesday and will
come with a heavy rainfall threat if any organized storms are able
to develop.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......sf
aviation.....am
discussion...aa
marine.......drk
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.