Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
891
fxus61 kcle 130820
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
420 am edt sun sep 13 2026

.what has changed...
some additional shower activity has formed early this morning
with fog and low stratus quickly filling in behind these
showers. the storms threats this afternoon and again during the
middle of the week remain unchanged.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front
this afternoon. there is potential for strong to severe storms
with gusty to damaging winds as the main threat.

2) warm and humid weather returns for the middle of the week,
bringing additional shower and storm chances starting on tuesday
night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
some showers have developed over the southeastern portion of the
forecast area early this morning with a piece of mid-level
energy moving through the upper ohio river valley, tapping into
a moist environment. these showers should exit over the next
couple of hours. immediately behind these showers, conditions
are clearing and allowing for a mix of fog and low stratus to
form across the area. this should only continue to build
overnight and become more locally dense with time. there will
likely need to be at least a special weather statement for the
visibility at some point this morning, but a dense fog advisory
cannot be ruled out.

after some recovery during the late morning hours, the main
concern of the day will be additional showers and storms
developing ahead of a cold front. by early afternoon,
temperatures should be in the 80s with dew points in the upper
60s/lower 70s. this will present enough of a warm, moist air
mass to support storm development with modest mlcape values.
with the storms and cold front, there will be support with the
right entrance region of an upper level jet and 0-6 km bulk
shear values will be around 40 kts, which will allow for some
organization of storm activity. the main concerns with storms
would be gusty to damaging wind gusts, although some hail could
be possible with the strongest storms. the limiting factor for
storms within the forecast area will be real estate. the front
will be moving from northwest to southeast and convective
initiation will be over the local area. by the time storms
become strong enough to merit any wind or hail hazards, they may
be south of i-90 and east of i-71 with very little of the
forecast area left to work with.

key message 2...
the middle of the week forecast continues to be unsettled as a
pseudo-cold front will approach the region from the northwest
as the upper ridge over/south of the area will break down a bit.
this front will generate a round of showers and storms on
tuesday night, as some mid- and upper-level energy will be
allowed into the lower great lakes region. the frontal boundary
will stall out over the area and the local area will be between
a trough to the north and a ridge to the south. with warm and
humid conditions over the region supplied by the ridge to the
south, expect scattered shower and storm chances through at
least thursday with an unsettled pattern in place. one note of
early concern is that there will be the west-east oriented
surface boundary over the region with zonal west-east flow aloft
that could favor repeated rounds of storms over the same areas,
which could pose heavy rain and flooding concerns, depending on
how things end up later this week.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions are beginning to deteriorate as patchy br/fg has
developed and as an area of showers pushes eastward across
southeastern terminals. expect fairly widespread ifr to lifr
conditions, primarily across inland terminals, in fog and mist.
closer to the lakeshore, expect mvfr to ifr conditions in br.
fog should begin to lift near daybreak this morning, though
lingering non- vfr stratus will persist into the late morning
hours.

a line of showers and storms will develop along and east of
i-71 this afternoon and push east through this evening. have
maintained prob30 groups along a line from kmfd/kcle and
terminals to the east. non-vfr visibilities will be possible in
any storm that moves overhead a taf site.

light and variable winds through the overnight will become
westerly to northwesterly this morning at 5-10 knots. winds will
briefly increase to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this
afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms tuesday
into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will approach the lake today. ahead of the front,
offshore flow will remain through the afternoon hours. the front
will cross the lake by evening with a quick shift to strong
northwest flow of 15 to 20 kts with cold advective flow. this
will allow for waves to build to 3 to 6 ft across the nearshore
and small craft advisories and beach hazards statements have
been issued for tonight into monday morning.

high pressure will build over the lake for monday and winds will
decrease as flow shifts to the east then south. a warm front
will lift across the lake by tuesday and stronger southerly flow
will move over the lake. a front will approach the lake on
tuesday night and wash out south of the lake for the middle of
the week. with the frontal passage, there should be onshore flow
again for wednesday and thursday. however, the flow should be
weaker than tonight`s cold front since the incoming air mass
isn`t very different.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from this evening through late tonight
for ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement from this evening through monday
morning for ohz009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from this evening through monday
morning for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 am edt monday
for lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am edt
monday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 130608
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
208 am edt sun sep 13 2026

.key messages...

- chances (20-30%) for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. severe weather is not expected at
this time. breezy with highs in the 70s, low 80s.

- there is a high swim risk for both la porte co, in and berrien
co, mi through late this evening. life-threatening waves and
currents are expected. those visiting the beaches should stay
out of the water.

- cooler and dry monday, with highs in the 70s. turning warmer
and humid tuesday and wednesday. additional rain and storm
chances (40-80%) tuesday into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

surface observations show a warm front and 500 mb shortwave draped
across northern indiana. waa and increased moisture transport have
allowed for scattered showers and a few storms to persist through
the morning and early afternoon, mainly along and south of us 24.
still holding onto 20-40% chance pops until about 21-22z this
afternoon as the warm front will continue lifting northeastward. an
isolated storm or two will be possible due to surface based
instability of around 1000 j/kg this afternoon. shear and low/mid
level lapse rates will be too weak for any organized strong or
severe storms. northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan will
likely remain dry today. there is quite the contrast in sky cover on
visible satellite imagery across the area, with clear skies in the
vicinity of lake michigan and overcast skies mainly along and east
of i-69. cloud cover is expected to keep highs in the low 80s today
along and south of us 24, while temperatures should climb into the
mid to maybe even upper 80s in locations that have stayed dry so far
today.

the rest of the weekend appears mainly dry except for 20-30% chances
for widely scattered showers and storms sunday afternoon with a cold
frontal passage and associated upper level trough that passes
through the great lakes. rainfall amounts should be light, less than
0.10" for most locations. incoming high pressure behind the front
will create a tightening pressure gradient over the area, with
wind gusts up to 20-25 mph sunday afternoon and evening. caa
associated with northwest flow behind the front will make for a
pleasant sunday night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. a
very fall-like day is ahead monday with highs only in the low
70s.

if you have plans to head to se lake michigan beaches on sunday,
stay safe! behind the cold frontal passage, dangerous swimming
conditions are expected for southeastern lake michigan beaches in
berrien and la porte counties. caa and northwesterly flow sunday
behind the front will promote onshore flow and waves of 3-5 ft,
meaning the swim risk will be high for both la porte and berrien
counties. moderate to strong rip and structural currents are
expected.

an upper level ridge will amplify across the central and eastern
conus early next week. surface high pressure builds over the eastern
us on tuesday, with return flow and moisture from the gulf ushering
in warmer than normal temperatures and humid conditions underneath
the peak of the upper level ridge over the great lakes. our far
southwest will be the warmest with temperatures in the upper 80s for
highs tuesday and peak heat indices around 95. another frontal
system likely approaches by midweek with zonal flow aloft as the
ridge breaks down. have maintained likely pops of 40-70% tuesday
evening through wednesday. there are still some uncertainties with
this system in regards to exact timing and placement of the cold
front. this system may be slow moving or potentially even stall to
our northwest (still mixed model guidance results on how fast it
actually comes through our area or not). rain/storm chances midweek
will be highly dependent on where the periphery of the ridge ends up
(which model guidance has routinely struggled with in recent
months). with forcing expected to be weak as of now, severe weather
is not expected at this time, but we will have to monitor trends in
the coming days.

our forecast area looks to remain sandwiched between hot and humid
air to our south and cooler, drier air to our north for the
foreseeable future, with a trend towards drier than normal
conditions by late september.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 155 am edt sun sep 13 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period, with
mvfr conditions possible from br/fg this am (tempo) and within
rain showers later this afternoon and evening (prob30). as of
this writing, there is an area of cloud cover (bkn025-bkn030)
along the lake mi shoreline behind the cold front. it does
appear to be moving towards ksbn, though uncertain if it will
remain mvfr or bump up to around 3500-4000ft (or if it will make
it that far east). have a tempo right now for bkn025. winds
will shift north-northwest behind the cold front, gusting to
around 20-25kts at times this afternoon. we have chances for
rain showers at both terminals this afternoon/eve, with
potential for mvfr vis/ceilings (prob30), but confidence is
fairly low at this point. kfwa could see some thunder, but too
low of a probability to include a mention this issuance.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from 10 am cdt this morning through
this evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 11 am edt this morning through
this evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 130831
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
431 am edt sun sep 13 2026

.key messages...

- potential for a few showers to develop this afternoon.

- a cooler air mass settles over the area tonight through monday
night. tonight will feature to coolest night, with overnight lows
falling into the 40s.

- unsettled weather returns tuesday and lingers into late week.
tuesday will feature a warmer more humid day helping to set the
stage for thundestorms chances as a slow moving front arrives.

&&

.discussion...

a cold front continues to drop south across the area early this
morning. this will help gradually diminish the warmer/muggy air mass
across the region, with breezy west to northwest winds ushering in
lower dewpoints this afternoon. as the front moves through it is not
out of the question that a few spotty showers develop. however,
better lift and upper-level forcing arrives later this afternoon
when the main upper-level wave tracks through the region. maintained
chance pops for this afternoon and evening as an area of
frontogenesis between roughly 800-700 mb sharpens upon the arrival
of the upper level wave and increasing dcva. not expecting any
significant rainfall with any shower activity that develops this
afternoon.

tonight through monday night, high pressure takes over across the
region and upper-level ridging builds back into the region. this
pattern will bring a taste of fall to the region. as a much drier
air mass moves overhead tonight, the combination of clearing skies
and light winds will allow temperatures to drop well into the 40s.
given the crisp, cool night expected, we will likely see some patchy
fog develop in/around lakes and rivers. highs on monday are likely
to top out around 70 with light winds and mostly clear skies. cloud
cover increases monday night as high pressure departs to our east
and the leading edge of warm air advection begins to move in from
the west ahead of the next system expected to impact the region.

this system, while the strong surface low is progged to remain well
north of the region, will bring impacts starting on tuesday as
strong warm air and moisture advection return to the region. highs
are forecast to climb back up into the 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s/near 70. this round of muggy conditions will be brief as a
slow moving cold front drops south across the area late tuesday.
flow along this frontal boundary becomes increasingly unidirectional
and zonal, which will slow the southward progression of the front
through mid to late week. the question remains where the front is
when it stalls out. is it over southeast michigan or south of the
state line. models are also trying to bring another shortwave in
from the west, which would bring another focus for showers and
thunderstorms late next week. there are plenty of details that will
be refined as we get closer, but tuesday through late next week
currently feature numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms,
including the potential for training precipitation.

&&

.marine...

a backdoor cold front is currently dropping south across the area
this morning, resulting in a brief uptick in north-northeast winds
to around 15-20 knots. this uptick in the winds is expected to be
shortlived this morning. however, as the day progresses cooler air
works into the region from the northwest, favoring an uptick in west
to northwest winds. west winds increase to 25-30 knots this
afternoon, gradually becoming northwest through the evening. across
the northern-third of lake huron, probabilistic data do not show
much of a signal for gales this afternoon and into tonight. thus,
have kept forecast winds capped at around 30 knots. small craft
advisories have been issued for all nearshore waters later this
afternoon through tonight for a combination of wind gusts in excess
of 25 knots and/or 3+ foot waves.

high pressure quickly builds into the region monday, allowing
northwest winds to relax in/around daybreak. attention then turns to
a robust surface low progged to track across the canadian prairies
monday into tuesday, and eventually reaching the hudson bay region
by tuesday night/wednesday. surface wind fields respond to both the
pressure falls north of the region and the increasing surface
pressure gradient arriving late monday through tuesday. will need to
keep a close eye on the forecast for monday night through tuesday as
south to southwest gales are looking more likely. there remains some
disagreement amongst the guidance regarding what the high-end
potential of wind speeds look like. however, blended ensemble
guidance show a strong signal for 35-40 kt gales peaking tuesday
morning over the open water of lake huron. these strong south winds
will also usher back in better fuel for thunderstorm activity and
heavy rain.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1158 pm edt sat sep 12 2026

aviation...

a weak frontal boundary will ease into the region through the
morning period. initial window for cloud mainly within the 4-6k ft
range early this morning. some reduction of cloud base into mvfr
remains possible late tonight and sunday morning, mainly from ptk
northward as the front sags into the this corridor. to the south,
latest model evidence suggests vfr conditions likely to prevail over
the detroit corridor. drying boundary layer conditions will
effectively lift and scatter and lingering lower cloud through the
day. conditions may become favorable for a lower coverage of
showers, with a rumble of thunder possible sunday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are expected through sunday
morning. very low potential sunday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less after midnight tonight
through sunday morning.

* very low for an isolated thunderstorm sunday afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement from 4 pm edt this afternoon through monday
morning for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt monday
for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt monday
for lhz421.

small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt monday
for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt monday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 am edt monday for
lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...ja
marine.......ja
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.