Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
252
fxus61 kcle 250604
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
204 am edt fri sep 25 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the prior forecast or messaging.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather and fall temperatures are expected through
tuesday with rain chances returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
pleasant fall weather is expected through tuesday as high
pressure brings dry conditions and near normal temperatures,
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. overnight lows may be on
the chilly side this morning and tonight but should gradually
warm up this weekend and next week.

rain chances return wednesday onward as high pressure departs to
the east and weak low pressure enters the great lakes region.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
high pressure will remain locked over the central great lakes
through today maintaining vfr conditions. a gradual increase in
high clouds is expected from late morning through the afternoon,
but only around 25,000 feet. light e to se winds early this
morning will become ne at 5-15 knots by mid morning through
afternoon, then will decrease again after sunset.

outlook...mainly vfr favored through tuesday, though periods of
overnight patchy fog are possible.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected through at
least monday morning, producing 1 to 3 feet across near shore
waters. near calm conditions are expected monday afternoon
through tuesday afternoon.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
937
fxus63 kiwx 250944
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
544 am edt fri sep 25 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the
weekend with the coolest conditions expected today.
temperatures will moderate early next week to near normal.

- an extended period of dry weather is expected through
tuesday, with next rain chances not until the middle of next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 131 am edt fri sep 25 2026

the energy from the early week rainfall deepens off the east coast
today. meanwhile, height falls ensue among the mid level ridging
overhead as a shortwave shifts southward through lower michigan.
given how dry we`ve gotten, no precipitation is expected from the
wave. gradient winds weaken as the low level jet regroups over the
east coast. this allows for light winds as well. subsidence takes
over behind the wave and dry air continues to remain across the
area. given a sort of rex block to our east along the east coast,
dry weather is expected to prevail today into early next week. as a
vorticity streamer in the central us runs into the block, it shears
out and dampens during the weekend into early the next work week,
further indicating the strength of the block. the low low level
theta-e airmass slowly increases between today and early next week
indicating that temperatures will be slowly rising after today.
highs in the upper 60s today, surpass 70f on saturday and have a
40+% chance of achieving 75f south of us-30 starting monday.
lows in the 40s are also expected to continue until we get to
tuesday night.

warm advection finally begins to ensue later tuesday into tuesday
night. the greatest chance of achieving 75f is on tuesday as a
result. however, this is still when medium range models differ on
how much moisture to bring into the area and, therefore how warm it
gets still comes with some uncertainty. this only muddies the
thunderstorm chance picture from that late tuesday time into
wednesday before chances reload for friday and the weekend.
tuesday`s chance comes as a diffuse area of vorticity pushes
eastward in association with a cold front. the wave is rather flat
and much better forcing is farther north. the forcing for late week
to possibly the weekend is a cutoff low in the southwest that gets
pulled northward in the next trough. the ecmwf is notorious for
leaving these waves in the southwest too long, but the gfs is
notorious for moving systems too fast. the answer may lie
somewhere in between.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 544 am edt fri sep 25 2026

patchy fog was forming around sunset last evening and there appears
to be some signs of ground fog both in the forecast bufkit sounding
shape as well as visby jumping up and down in metar observations.
nam bufkit soundings indicate at least ground fog, cross-over temps
seem favorable for it, and winds die down overnight. one issue may
be that high clouds prevents radiational cooling keeping fog at bay.
perhaps that`s why there aren`t more aviation guidance solutions
with denser fog around. still not quite ready to take fog off the
table yet. otherwise, northeast winds continue, but stay less than
10 kts sustained with minimal gusts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
163
fxus63 kdtx 251005
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
605 am edt fri sep 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with cool to seasonable temperatures lasts through the
weekend and the first half of next week.

- the next chance of rain arrives with a low pressure system and cold
front projected to reach the region by wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

moisture flux off of lake erie has been minimal so far this morning,
with the only restrictions occurring where patchy fog briefly
developed. otherwise, high based cirrus has started to move overhead
and will linger for most of the daylight hours. vfr is expected to
persist through the period as high pressure over quebec will
retrograde into the great lakes as a strong low lifts along the
atlantic coast. this ensures a dry forecast with persistent
northeast flow that backs more northerly as the high centers
overhead.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 421 am edt fri sep 25 2026

discussion...

the large-scale pattern will be governed by varying forms of
vicinity ridging through the weekend, and into the first half of
next week. at present, the prior rex block has unlocked and is being
replaced by a weak mid-level shortwave trough getting pushed
downstream of upper midwest ridging. this should provide ambient
ascent over lower michigan, generating healthy coverage of clouds
aloft. thermal fields remain intact, with 850 mb temperatures
holding near 10c which keeps highs at least 5f below climatological
normals. strong stability within the lower half of the column,
positioned within a well-established anticyclone ensures subsidence
and limited boundary-layer cloud.

rain-free weather extends through the weekend with a warming trend
lifting readings toward early fall averages. an elongated ridge axis
extending from the gulf into ontario, subdivided by southern and
northern stream components, will move eastward by saturday. the
northern stream shorter wavelength feature displaces the residual
troughing, and centers over the western great lakes. high pressure
will lock in at the surface, centering between southwest lower and
quebec, offering light winds from the northeast quadrant. meanwhile,
a strong atlantic coast quasi-tropical system/nor`easter will
meander between chesapeake bay and cape cod over the next 3+ days.
the upper levels of this system and the stationary mature low are
what will prevent much movement from the composite ridge axis over
the great lakes region. a strong positively-tilted pacific longwave
trough eventually digs across conus mid-week, kicking out the
atlantic wave. high confidence in a dry forecast prior to the
arrival of this system, once pre-frontal winds flip southerly and
top-down column saturation gets underway closer to wednesday.

marine...

the expansion of a strong canadian high pressure system derived from
quebec and ontario into the great lakes will provide an extended
period of light winds and dry weather through early next week. some
periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be possible across
southern lake huron through this extended time frame, but otherwise,
wind gust potential at or below 15 knots is expected. wind direction
will mainly hold from the northeast as high pressure fills in across
michigan.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
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