Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
820
fxus61 kcle 190655
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
255 am edt sun apr 19 2026

.what has changed...
a freeze warning has been issued for the entire area for tonight
into monday morning. some brief snow is expected late tonight in
ne oh and nw pa; any accumulations will be negligible.

&&

.key messages...
1) a colder than normal air mass is entering the region,
allowing for temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal for the
third week of april. frost and freeze headlines are in effect
and will be needed through monday night with the cold air.

2) scattered rain chances will continue this morning and tonight
with some changeover to snow overnight. little snow accumulation
is expected in ne oh and nw pa.

3) the pattern will return to warmer weather starting on
tuesday. there will be a window for showers and storms to return
on tuesday night and wednesday; the severe potential for storms
is low.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a deep upper trough is entering the great lakes region and
bringing a colder than normal air mass into the area. 850 mb
temperatures will dip to around -11 c and that will translate to
high temperatures remaining steady in the 40s today with low
temperatures tonight falling into the 20s for most with lower
30s near lake erie. the freeze watch has been upgraded to a
freeze warning. high pressure entering from the northwest for
monday will dry out weather but keep temperatures cool in the
40s. low temperatures will again be in the 20s and 30s and
another freeze warning will likely be needed.

key message 2...
with the upper trough moving through the region, this feature
will provide lift for additional rounds of showers this morning
and tonight. for this morning, a strong southwesterly jet will
move through aloft and support rain showers through daybreak.
for this afternoon and tonight the main upper trough axis will
approach with a secondary surface cold front and allow for
another round of showers to develop. tonight, showers will
transition to lake enhanced showers with -8 to -11c at 850 mb
moving over an 8 to 10 c lake. given the lake instability, the
rain could be convective and come with graupel/small hail with
the falling freezing levels. eventually, precipitation will
transition to some snow. snow ratios should be low with snow
favoring a more graupel-style vs. large dendrites. surface and
pavement temperature remain well above freezing and will need
time to allow for accumulations, which is unlikely given the
brief window for precipitation. therefore, will have just little
accumulation in the forecast with no impacts expected at this
time. high pressure entering from the northwest for monday will
dry out the atmosphere and back winds through the day, ending
the rain/snow threat.

key message 3...
a large ridge will enter the central us on tuesday and expand
east into the great lakes region. temperatures will moderate
once again into the 70s and eventually 80s later in the week,
bringing back a late spring feeling. a weak trough will overtop
this ridge and allow a weak cold front into the region on
tuesday night into wednesday. this front will bring the
potential for scattered showers and storms. both timing and
dynamics with this system appear unfavorable for severe weather
at this time.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
mainly vfr to mvfr ceilings are expected for this taf update.
for most of the taf sites outside of the snowbelt, vfr ceilings
are expected through the next 24 hours. in the snowbelt region
like yng and eri, vfr ceilings are expected through sunday
afternoon with mvfr ceilings moving in after 00z through the
evening. scattered light rain showers mixing with wet snow
showers will be possible in the snowbelt sunday evening. winds
will be westerly increasing to 12 to 18 knots with gusts up to
25 to 30 knots today. gusts will relax after 00z this evening
and become more northwesterly around 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered rain and snow showers
sunday afternoon and early sunday night. non-vfr possible
tuesday night and wednesday in rain showers.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories are in effect for the entire near shore
water today. winds will be from the west 15 to 20 knots with
gusts up to 30 knots and waves up to 4 feet. winds will become
northwesterly around 10 knots tonight and monday. southerly
winds will return late monday night 10 to 15 knots. winds will
increase from the south on tuesday 15 to 20 knots. we get close
to sca headlines again on tuesday with the offshore flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 10 am edt this morning for ohz003-006.
freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lez142-147.
small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
lez143>146.
small craft advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening
for lez148-149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
945
fxus63 kiwx 190539
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
139 am edt sun apr 19 2026

.key messages...

- frost and freeze conditions this morning and again monday
morning.

- breezy with scattered rain showers this afternoon.

- after a cool start to the week, temperatures trend warmer
starting tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 134 am edt sun apr 19 2026

skies are gradually clearing along the i-69 corridor early this
morning as yesterday`s cold front continues to track slowly east.
temperatures have remained somewhat elevated (low-40s) thanks to
steady northwest wind due to a decent pressure gradient from the
departing low. these winds diminish through the morning and
there may still be enough time for at least patchy frost to
develop. dew points in the low-20s this hour suggest a quick
drop of temperatures are favored once winds abate.

new for this forecast package is the inclusion of scattered showers
this afternoon. a compact, mid-level wave is exiting the dakotas
this morning. strong upper-level support, modest moisture profiles
and non-zero instability point to diurnally-driven rain showers
as this wave moves through. with the freezing level near 3,000
ft and - 10c around 6,000 ft, cannot rule out graupel from the
strongest (tallest) showers this afternoon. this activity will
diminish with sunset. otherwise today, breezy and cool with
northwest wind gusts near 30mph and high temperatures struggling
to reach 50 degrees along and north of us 30.

the early monday morning freeze watch has been upgraded to freeze
warning. high pressure becomes centered over northern illinois with
850-mb temperatures of -10c noted, good for widespread lows near
30; closer to 25 near hillsdale, mi. with high pressure overhead,
this makes high temperatures monday the coolest of the week as
highs hardly reach 50 degrees area wide.

a trough arriving onshore to the west coast shunts high pressure
east by tuesday. the result is a rapid warm up for the midweek
period as an upper-level ridge develops over the central us and
eventually spreads over the midwest. rain chances this week are
limited to a 20- 30% chance tuesday night courtesy of shortwave
aloft, and a 60% chance on friday thanks to a cold front.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1214 am edt sun apr 19 2026

clouds linger over kfwa this hour on the far western fringe of a
cold front tracking east of the appalachians. look for skies to
to clear out this morning.

upstream, attention turns to a compact mid-level wave over
eastern north dakota. this feature races southeast and
coincides with peak heating this afternoon. high resolution
guidance suggests scattered showers develop thanks to robust
forcing aloft, non-zero instability, and an acceptable moisture
column to about 16,000 ft. the moisture profile is less
organized on kfwa time-heights, so, opted for vfr there. because
these showers will be diurnally driven, dry conditions prevail
at sunset.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory until 9 am edt /8 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
freeze warning from midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight to 11 am
edt /10 am cdt/ monday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
freeze warning from midnight tonight to 11 am edt monday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
freeze warning from midnight tonight to 11 am edt monday for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
968
fxus63 kdtx 190951
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
551 am edt sun apr 19 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect this morning for most of southeast
michigan with lows in the 30s.

- some rain and/or snow showers possible this afternoon and evening
with gusts above 30 mph at times; a rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out.

- a freeze warning is in effect tonight for most of southeast
michigan with lows in the 20s.

- temperatures warm back toward normal tuesday, climbing well above
normal through the rest of the week.

&&

.aviation...

surface ridging briefly backs winds to the west-southwest this
morning ahead of a weak cold front that is just now entering
northern lower michigan. this front will be the focus for shower
activity beginning late this morning and expanding in coverage
throughout the afternoon. very steep low level lapse rates extend up
through 10.0-15.0 kft agl leading to weak instability this
afternoon. a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out as a result, while
a more likely outcome is graupel and/or wet snowflakes mixing in with
rain. well-mixed profiles will also support gusts to 25 knots,
peaking this afternoon as the cold front tracks through. post-frontal
airmass will be drier affording a clearing trend again overnight as
high pressure returns to the airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet now through late morning.
medium late this morning through the evening.

* very low for a rumble of thunder this afternoon between 17z and
23z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 am edt sun apr 19 2026

discussion...

satellite trends this morning show a definitive back edge to the
clouds with clearing working into the forecast area. morning
sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds. not making any changes
to the temperature forecast but temperatures today may be a touch
mild, conditional to the radiational cooling that occurs ahead of
sunrise.

composite h3-h5 trough axis and associated absolute vorticity
maximum will track directly over southeast michigan this afternoon.
plan views of 300mb winds depict an additional northern stream
jetlet merger into the broader left entrance region over the eastern
contiguous us resulting in ageostrophy and increased 850mb
frontogenesis over southeast michigan between 17-23z. cooling aloft
provided by the shortwave in combination with minor low level thetae
advection is expected to result in steep lapse rates from the lcl at
6.0 kft agl upwards to 17.0 kft agl. given the dynamics and the
relatively high convective depths, feeling is that coverage of
shower activity will be fairly high. therefore, intermittent
cellular showers are anticipated this afternoon and increased pops
to greater than 60 percent for most of the area. saturation through
the dgz does bring the potential for some melting snowflakes
particularly north of metro detroit, but the more likely scenario
for mixed phase precipitation is brief graupel/snow pellets. cloud
ice supports a potential for lightning see spc swody1. inverted v
supports gusty wind potential with the showers, perhaps 30 to 40 mph
possible.

stout cold air advection with polar air mass brings high confidence
and high certainty that surface temperatures will drop into the
middle to upper 20s after midnight tonight. nbm provides an
interquartile range on temperatures late tonight of between 23 to 30
degrees. with collaboration considerations, upgraded to a freeze
warning from 11 pm this evening until 11 am monday morning.

strong 1000-500mb geopotential height rises and confluence aloft
will support high pressure on monday with ridging persisting into the
daytime on tuesday. cool, below normal temperatures (40s) are
expected monday before moderating significantly tuesday afternoon
(60s). warm advection in combination with exit region dynamics may
provide enough ascent for some scattered shower activity
particularly over the southern forecast area tuesday evening/night.
the current forecast has slight chance pops south of detroit.

high amplitude ridge is forecasted to build into much of eastern
north america for the end of the week. a notable warming trend with
upper 70s temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s possible.

not the highest of confidence in the deterministic solution space
for next weekend as recent model runs are suggesting more progressive
weather across the great lakes. huge sensible weather variance
exists across the region as timing and southward extent to occlusion
of central united states low pressure system will matter. for now,
the cold front is forecasted to push into southeast michigan friday
night and saturday morning per ecmwf and gfs.

marine...

a persistent pressure gradient maintains breezy westerly wind
through the morning. a cold front tracks across the area this
afternoon, bringing a chance for rain/snow showers and potential for
a rumble of thunder. small craft advisories remain in effect during
the day for lake st. clair and western lake erie where the westerly
flow ahead of the front will become gusty to around 25 kt. behind
the front, wind shifts northwest and gradually increases to the 20
to 30 kt range across lake huron tonight. additional small craft
advisories go into effect this evening for the lake huron nearshore
waters as wave heights build over 4 feet. high pressure builds
directly into the great lakes on monday allowing winds and waves to
subside. gusty south wind then develops monday night into tuesday
ahead of the next cold front tracking across the upper midwest.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz053-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
miz053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt monday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.