Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
661
fxus61 kcle 302300
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 pm edt thu apr 30 2026

.what has changed...
raised pops for tonight and shifted northward to encompass most of
the area in showers tonight into friday morning. lowered
temperatures slightly in the east to allow a low chance of snow
to mix with rain in ashtabula and inland nw pennsylvania
generally early friday morning. added a chance of rain near and
south of lake erie on friday night for north central ohio which
did result in less coverage of frost.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and a
frost advisory is in effect for inland portions of erie and crawford
county pa for tonight. potential for frost will expand friday night
and saturday night.

2) rain expected late tonight through friday morning. a few wet snow
flakes could mix in but not expecting impacts.

3) a warmer pattern returns next week with the potential for showers
and thunderstorms through the first half of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a cool airmass has settled over the region with temperatures this
afternoon ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. cloud cover has a
cumuliform appearance to it and expect to see a decrease in coverage
through this evening. temperatures will drop quickly in the east
with very light winds while western areas will see cloud cover
already on the increase ahead of the next system. a frost
advisory remains in effect for inland northwest pennsylvania
through tonight although temperatures may start to recover late
tonight as clouds and showers approach. these showers will keep
temperatures cool on friday and lowered highs slightly, with a
few locations in the east seeing highs in the upper 40s.
temperatures on friday will average around 15 degrees below
normal.

for friday night, some cloud cover and even a low chance of showers
is expected with an upper level trough over the central great lakes.
given the cold airmass with 850mb temperatures of around -5c, low
temperatures are still expected to fall into the low 30s with light
winds. the coverage of cloud cover complicates the frost forecast
with greatest potential for frost on all fringes of the
forecast area. portions of inland nw pennsylvania may even see a
freeze. expecting less cloud cover by saturday night with more
areas experiencing a widespread frost.

key message 2...

a shortwave trough can be seen dropping through the upper
midwest on water vapor imagery as it rounds the broad upper
level trough over the great lakes region. surface low pressure
is starting to develop over northern illinois this afternoon and
will slide east across the local area through friday morning.
precipitation will develop along a fairly compact baroclinic
zone overhead with widespread rain in the forecast for late
tonight into friday morning. it is worth noting that while
temperatures will tend to be near 40 degrees during the rain
event, some cooling due to melting where good rates are
occurring to the north of the low may allow temperatures to
briefly dip into the upper 30s. can not rule a little mix with
wet snow although potential for any wintry impacts is low. did
included a short window of a rain/snow mix in far northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania late tonight into early friday. the
trend over the last several cycles has been to the north with
around a quarter of an inch of rain across our northern counties
and closer towards a tenth of an inch closer to central ohio.

key message 3...

the persistent upper level trough departs on sunday with a warm
front lifting north of the area on monday. winds back to the
southwest on sunday but still under the influence of high
pressure. moisture return in conjunction with a low level jet
sunday night with a few showers or thunderstorms possible.
better instability returns on monday in the warm sector with
additional chances for thunderstorms. better forcing looks
focused on tuesday ahead of the associated cold front.
temperatures trend cooler again behind the front for the middle
to end of next week.

&&

.aviation /00 friday through tuesday/... conditions are
starting out as vfr and will continue through the late evening
hour. eventually mvfr to lower end mvfr ceilings will move in
from west to east during the late night and early friday
morning. some taf sites like tol, fdy, cle, and eri may see ifr
ceilings by early friday morning. ceilings will become mvfr to
vfr later in the taf period or late friday afternoon. scattered
rain showers will move in later tonight through friday morning
causing 3sm to 5sm visibilities. winds will generally be from
the west or northwest 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on monday into tuesday.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie will stay generally quiet through the
weekend. winds will be predominately out of the north to northwest at
5-15 knots through saturday before shifting to be out of the west on
sunday. waves during this time period will stay less than 3 feet.
high pressure will pass to the south on sunday and winds will
increase out of the west to 10-20 knots and then shift to be out of
the southwest by the evening. by monday morning, winds will increase
to 15-25 knots out of the southwest and persist into tuesday and
waves will build to 2-4 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 9 am edt friday for
paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...77
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 010421
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1221 am edt fri may 1 2026

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures persist through this weekend with
moderation closer to normal into next week.

- rain showers (50-80%) move through tonight into friday morning.

- frost may impact sensitive vegetation friday night into early
saturday morning and again on sunday morning. a 25 percent
chance for 30 degree temperatures exists in the i-69 corridor,
which would occur mainly after 2am friday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt thu apr 30 2026

biggest hazard to watch in the short term is the frost and freeze
potential.

as an upper low slowly shifts eastward from the northern great lakes
to southeastern canada, it allows cooler air to filter down into the
area from canada on northwest flow. for tonight, starting around 00z
give or take a few hours, a pocket of low level rh swings through in
conjunction with a weak surface low and moderately strong mid level
shortwave and does appear to have some 850 mb cold advection behind
a cold front. lav guidance does still show winds less than 4 kts at
kirs overnight, but probably, cloud cover is the limiting factor for
frost conditions, even with branch and hillsdale counties dipping
down to 36/37 degrees. lav guidance is showing low stratus (mvfr
cigs for those attune to aviation terms). saturday morning brings
the best chance for 32 degree, which could bring a soft freeze as
850 mb temps dip down to negative 5c. certainly would like to see 28
to 30 degrees to have more confidence go with a freeze watch. with
the tail end of a trough still to our west, but attempting to swing
through, cannot rule out some nuisance clouds moving through, but
surface high pressure is across the plains states and that appears
to keep us mostly clear. this is even with a cold front that washes
out ahead of the surface high to our southwest. all said and done,
it appears the best locations for frost and perhaps a freeze is in
our mi counties and in counties east of us-31. sunday morning 850 mb
temperatures are a few degrees warmer than saturday at negative 1 or
2c as the main cold axis begins to slide eastward. warm advection at
850 mb also commences on the back side of the high which could bring
some scattered cloudiness into the area. this is probably widespread
frost conditions mainly east of in-15 and in our mi counties, but
could bring some soft freeze potential (32 or 31 degrees) in
outlying and northern locations. nam bufkit soundings indicate we
attempt to decouple both friday night and saturday night.

the other hazard between sunday daytime and the middle of next week
will be a series of cold fronts that push through. it is interesting
to note on nssl`s ai severe weather outlook based on the gefs that
monday and tuesday have a severe weather chance. it looks like 50
degree dew points increase during the daytime monday with the main
axis stalling across the area (especially south of us-24) into
monday night. mid level lapse rates stay around 6c/km during the
monday to monday night period. given the potential for remnant
boundaries and slowed fronts, flooding could be a possibility.
however, moisture profiles don`t look all that saturated with only
around 1" pwats and surface dew points staying below 60f and 850 mb
dew points only between 5 and 10c. there is some shear and low level
turning to work with in this chance, but it appears that the threat
wanes with sunset as we lose instability. tuesday`s severe/flooding
chance depends on where the front/outflow boundary ends up.
current model projections indicate the front is draped across
the area bisecting it meaning areas south of us-24 would have
the better storm ingredients, but it could end up outside of our
area altogether.

quite a bit of disagreement exists for wednesday with both the gfs
and ecmwf indicating a low pressure system develops along the
stalled frontal boundary, but where and how quickly is the question.
some scattered instability showers could be around the area thursday
as cold air comes in behind the low that developed along the front
and vorticity dips southward from the upper low in canada.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1220 am edt fri may 1 2026

another upper level impulse and associated low-mid level fgen
forcing bringing rain showers and lowering cloud bases this
morning. flight conditions generally lower into mvfr for a time
with this activity, with best chances for a period of ifr still
mainly in the 10-13z timeframe at kfwa. improvement back into
vfr and mainly dry conditions anticipated then into friday
afternoon with diurnally driven showers generally focused east
of the terminals near a leftover inverted trough.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 010352
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1152 pm edt thu apr 30 2026

.key messages...

- low pressure will pass through portions of indiana and ohio late
tonight and bring light rain, 40 to 70% chance, mainly south of
detroit.

- a frost advisory is in effect until 8am friday for many areas north
of m-59 including the thumb.

- afternoon rain showers are again possible friday afternoon.

- a freeze watch is in effect for all of southeast michigan midnight
to 9 am saturday for the potential of temperatures dropping below
freezing.

- a slight warming trend is expected sunday and monday before a cold
front pushes through the area monday night.

&&

.aviation...

compact low pressure is on schedule with light rain production
toward the ohio border but still south of dtw leading up to
midnight. the system grazes the dtw terminal corridor with light
rain and borderline mvfr/vfr ceiling after midnight but is only able
to produce some virga toward ptk and then just scattered to broken
mid clouds farther north. mbs is far enough north to hold in a
pocket of mostly clear sky until closer to sunrise.

the low pressure system exits eastward during the morning followed
by a renewed supply of cool air in the afternoon from ontario high
pressure. light nw wind reinforces the air mass that is subject to
another round of vfr clouds and widely scattered showers enhanced by
daytime instability. shower coverage and duration are again too
limited for inclusion in the forecast while the lower range of vfr
ceiling builds into a mid level layer above 5000 ft friday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight and friday,
then low friday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 233 pm edt thu apr 30 2026

discussion...

low geopotential heights will persist over eastern north america for
at least the next 7 days. extended global deterministic solutions
largely support a mean upper level trough axis from james bay
southward through portions of lake huron and georgian bay which will
keep much of southeast michigan within northwest flow aloft. latest
progs support a very high frequency of low amplitude shortwave
energy digging into the western and central great lakes keeping
chance pops ubiquitous in the forecast.

diurnal, boundary layer clouds are expected to thin out with loss of
daytime heating this evening. this should allow for falling
temperatures into the middle to lower 30s through midnight for much
of the northern forecast before clouds thicken south. based on the
temperature forecast decided to go with a frost advisory for many
areas along and north of the m 59 corridor particularly the thumb.

the first of many shortwaves is forecasted to pivot around the upper
level low through portions of il/in/oh attendant to a significant
lobe of potential vorticity. with convective
augmentation/strengthening later today, the absolute vorticity
maximum is decently well resolved in the nwp. 850-700mb
frontogenesis is now expected along the northern deformation axis
that will stripe through lenawee and monroe counties. high
resolution data is bullish on precipitation and decided to increase
to likely pops for areas south of detroit. precipitation rates will
aid in wetbulb cooling and possible could see few wet/melting
snowflakes mix in. ambient ground moisture with steep midlevel lapse
rates will result in an environment conducive for showers friday
afternoon with afternoon forecast soundings suggesting some
convective instability between 4.0 and 12.0 kft agl.

weak surface ridging is forecasted to build out of the mid
mississippi river valley into lower michigan friday night and
saturday. light flow and a dry lower atmospheric column suggests
better support for radiational cooling. based on forecasted
temperatures of 30-32f for much of the area decided to go with a
freeze watch. lower confidence exists on low temperatures for the
urban heat island areas of metro detroit as temperatures could
remain in the middle 30s.

dampened shortwave in addition to synoptic scale warm advection will
lead to precipitation chances again by late sunday. a temporary
southwest flow regime is expected to support temperatures near 60
degrees sunday which is some 10 degrees warmer than the day before.
the current forecast has pops during the afternoon and sunday night
which is sufficient.

significant polar vorticity reservoir and upper level jet streak will
then carve out and reestablish the troughing over the great lakes
during the monday and tuesday timeframe next week. current
indications suggest a wet period along a prefrontal trough late
monday. temperatures monday are expected to be approximately 5
degrees above normal before a cold front leads to chilly conditions
by the middle of next week.

marine...

the great lakes remains under the influence of a slow moving upper-
level low pressure system. periodic isolated to scattered showers
are expected through the end of the week, along with lighter winds
under a more diffuse pressure gradient. wind direction holds
northwest with stronger winds confined northern lake huron, where
gusts around 20 knots will be possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt friday for miz047>049-053>055-061>063-
069-070.

freeze watch from late friday night through saturday morning for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...cb
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.