Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 120705
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
305 am edt mon oct 12 2026

.what has changed...
patchy fog possible across western ohio this morning as clouds clear
out. probability of record high temperatures continues to increase
for tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled weather expected tuesday through the middle of the week
with record high temperatures possible on tuesday.

2) brief dry period expected thursday before a strong low pressure
system moves through the region with rain, strong winds, and the
coldest air of the season friday through sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the low pressure system that brought showers the previous days will
continue to exit off the east coast this morning and the low level
clouds behind will begin to dissipate from west to east. the drier
air in eastern indiana as been slow to move into the western
counties of the cwa this morning. as it does clear out, there will
be potential for patchy fog across western ohio this morning. though
how far east it reaches is uncertain given the slow clearing and
will assess the need for an sps over the next few hours. afterwards,
high pressure will nose in from the south and dry weather is
expected today.

an unsettled pattern begins late tonight into early tuesday as a
weak shortwave moves through the upper great lakes. rain chances are
low currently and confined to northern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania since there will be a decent amount of dry air to fight
with to the south. there will be warm air advecting into the region
as flow shifts to be out of the west leading to some instability
developing across the region so thunderstorms will be possible if
precipitation does develop. additionally, with the warm air
advection, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s across
the region tuesday afternoon and will rival record high temperatures
for the day. the best areas to see records broken will be at most
ohio climate sites with youngstown staying a few degrees under and
erie staying in the upper 70s. record highs for the day can be found
below in the climate section.

the better chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms will be late
tuesday night into wednesday as a cold front sweeps north to south
across the region. given the timing of the front, instability will
be minimal so not anticipating much more than general thunderstorms
at this point. this front will settle to the south across the ohio
valley during the day wednesday. rain chances will be lower during
the day, but will increase further south into central ohio. with
expected rain showers, temperatures on wednesday will be cooler in
the low to upper 70s.

key message 2...
canadian high pressure briefly builds in from the north late
wednesday into thursday. a strong upper level trough begins to
develop across the canadian prairies that will phase with a cut off
low located across the southwestern conus. this trough will rapidly
deepen as it progresses eastward into the great lakes region late
thursday. the associated surface low will have a similar
strengthening across the great lakes and a strong cold front will
move through on friday. there`s still quite a bit of model
discrepancies with this system and how it phases with the cut off
low across the southwest. this leads to varying timing and strength
of the upper level trough when it moves through the region. the gfs
has trended slower than both the euro and canadian models and has
been slightly deeper with colder air advecting in behind.

regardless, this set up with bring in strong winds beginning friday
morning into saturday with rain showers expected during that time
frame as well. additionally, this will usher in the coldest
temperatures of the season so far for saturday and sunday mornings
with chilly wind chills as well due to the gusty winds. how cold
it will get is uncertain due to the reasoning mentioned above
with model guidance. lingering lake effect showers are likely
across northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania saturday
into early sunday. will definitely be a system to watch how it
develops as the need for wind headlines will be possible. high
pressure builds into the region sunday with dry weather expected
and temperatures beginning to moderate.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
overcast skies with mvfr to lifr ceilings and patchy drizzle
persist through the overnight hours. the western edge of the
cloud deck is just west of tol/fdy, with clearing at those two
taf sites expected within the next few hours. fog is likely to
develop there shortly after clouds clear before dissipating
within a couple hours of sunrise. elsewhere, the cloud deck will
clear from west to east through the early afternoon hours, with
vfr expected through the rest of the taf period.

light winds tonight become southwesterly 6-10 knots later today
into tonight.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with periodic rain showers late
tonight through friday.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake eries this morning will continue to be out of the
southwest, though will increase throughout the day to 10-15 knots by
the evening. by tuesday morning, winds will increase to 10-20 knots
due to a low pressure system moving north of the lake. waves as a
result will build to 3-5 feet across the open waters of the central
and eastern basins. the waves in the near shore zones should remain
lower due to the off shore flow from the southwest. winds and waves
will begin to subside late tuesday into wednesday behind a cold
front passing north to south over the lake. by wednesday morning
winds will be less than 10 knots out of the north with waves 2 feet
or less. thursday morning, high pressure briefly builds north of the
lake and the winds shift to be out of the northeast at 10-15 knots
and persist through the day.

by friday, a strong low pressure system will pass through the region
and winds will increase behind the cold front to near gales friday
evening into saturday. there`s still plenty of uncertainty regarding
this system and will need to be monitored over the next few
days.

&&

.climate...
temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
northwest and north central ohio on tuesday. records for october 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.


date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 120605
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
205 am edt mon oct 12 2026

.key messages...

- unseasonably warm today and tuesday with highs generally in
the 80s.

- low chances (<20%) for a few showers and storms along and
north of the michigan stateline this evening.

- additional chances (40-70%) of showers arrives tuesday night
through thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 am edt mon oct 12 2026

pockets of fog, locally dense, have been observed in several
locations as xover temps are exceeded. these pockets appear to
be somewhat shallow in nature and should begin to lessen some as
combination of high clouds and a slight increase in boundary
layer winds occurs. not planning any headlines, but will monitor
trends if highlighted factors don`t impact the coverage.

any fog will quickly burn off as plenty of sunshine and warming
temperatures end the threat. low pressure and a frontal boundary
will remain well north of the area, with an increasing sw flow
resulting in strong waa. this will set the stage for well above
normal (possible near record) high temperatures into the 80s. model
blends hint at a few 90 degrees highs on tuesday. any precip chances
appear to remain in mi.

the frontal boundary will slowly push south into the area wed and
thur as a series of waves move along it with chances for showers and
thunderstorms. some uncertainty exists exactly how much progress the
front makes each day given the lack of upper level energy to help
push it along. periods of likely to cat pops remain.

thursday night into friday, models continue to vary on interactions
(or lack thereof) with northern and southern stream waves. that
being said, there may be some agreement starting as an initial,
weaker southern stream wave tries to phase with the northern stream
trough, with an orphaned upper low sticking around in the sw us. as
a result, picture remains unclear as to exact potential impacts for
this period and into the weekend. in the wake of the system, at
least a brief shot of colder (below normal) air arrives.


&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 130 am edt mon oct 12 2026

challenging fog forecast this morning given current clear skies
and light winds but highly marginal near-surface moisture
profiles. gradient wind and high clouds will also steadily
increase through daybreak, leading to even lower confidence.
expect visibilities may vary quite a bit for the next several
hours (particularly at kfwa where moisture profiles are a
little better) but expect a general improving trend closer to
12z. the rest of the period will be quiet/vfr as dry ssw flow
develops.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 120839
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
439 am edt mon oct 12 2026

.key messages...

- warmer today and tomorrow with highs to around 80 degrees.

- chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms tonight.

- more typical fall weather mid to late week.

&&

.aviation...

low stratus has stubbornly held across all terminals save mbs
overnight into early this morning. this cloud is gradually
retracting eastward, clearing fnt and on the doorstep of the detroit
terminals at time of discussion. while obs have shown areas of fog
development over the central portions of the state, the late
withdraw of stratus is expected to limit overall fog development
potential so have eased back on reductions. breezy southwest winds
develop by late morning as diurnal mixing erodes the remnant low
level inversion and filtered sun steepens low level lapse rates.
scattered showers develop overnight tied to a cold front sagging into
the area. greatest chances look to be favored over the northern
sites so have added tempos with prob30s in the south. cool airmass
aloft offers thunder potential within any shower activity however
confidence is not high enough at any one location to add mention at
this time.

d21/dtw convection... very low chance for a thundershower late
tonight near dtw or in the d21 airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in visibilities and/or ceilings aob 1/2sm and/or 200 feet
this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 340 am edt mon oct 12 2026

discussion...

notable inversion on the 00z dtx raob last evening has low level
moisture trapped across southeast michigan. low stratus has been
slow to clear along and east of the glacial ridge, but the back edge
of this cloud shield is slowly creeping east through the early
morning hours. to the west of this cloud deck is clear skies and
favorable environment for fog development with many observations now
showing visibility down to 1/2 mile or less. will monitor the
visibility trends that could necessitate a dense fog advisory.

any fog across southeast michigan is expected to dissipate by 15z
this morning. brief residence time of shortwave ridge today with a
surface high pressure to the south will strengthen southwest low
level flow and commence strong warm air advection into this
afternoon. temperatures at 850 mb are forecast to be around 15c this
afternoon and good insolation under mostly clear skies will allow
high temperatures to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. strengthening
llj winds will drive increasing moist isentropic ascent over
michigan tonight as a weak low pressure moves along a cold frontal
boundary draped across the upper midwest. this will lead to the
development of showers that will move across a good portion of
southeast michigan during the overnight hours. there will be just
enough elevated instability to support isolated general
thunderstorms.

surface low forecast to track across northern lower michigan on
tuesday. southwest to west flow will draw in slightly warmer air
while allowing the mild airmass to persist throughout the day.
expecting 850 mb temperatures to climb a 2-3 more degrees compared
to today with mid-upper level drying bringing a period of reduced
clouds. this should help temperatures a little higher into the low
80s for much of the area with mid 80s achievable towards the
southern mi border ahead of the approaching front. the cold front is
expected to pass through late tuesday and offer a low chance for
additional shower activity, though better chances will reside to the
north.

another chance for precipitation will occur tuesday night into
wednesday as a shortwave is forecast to lift across the lingering
frontal zone. activity will be more focused south of i-69 corridor of
southeast michigan into the wednesday afternoon period and come to
an end by wednesday evening. wednesday will also begin the transition
back to more typical fall like conditions that carry into the late
week. higher amplitude ridging will build across the intermountain
west during this time with a downstream strengthening canadian trough
combining with a southern stream wave. another round of deeper
moisture with ties to the gulf will lead to widespread precipitation
with periods of steadier rainfall supported by the greater dynamic
setup moving over the great lakes. in the wake of this system will
be strong cold air advection that will result in a cool start to the
weekend. saturday morning lows will fall towards freezing with
daytime high temperatures topping out in the low-mid 50s. it does
appear though that temperatures will recover back towards more normal
values sunday into early next week.

marine...

a ridge of high pressure to briefly fill in across the great lakes
this morning which will support lighter winds for most of the day. a
weak low pressure system will then move from the central plains into
northern lower michigan by tomorrow morning. some slightly elevated
wind gusts around 20 knots will be possible across northern lake
huron with the arrival of this system, along with rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances. a cold front will then push through on
wednesday morning, bringing additional chances for precipitation.
northwest flow in the wake of the front will support another round
of gust potential at or above 20 knots across northern lake huron
on wednesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...aa
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.