Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
973
fxus61 kcle 071826
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
226 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

.what has changed...
there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. the main severe weather
threat will be damaging wind gusts.

&&

.key messages...
1) warm and unsettled with periodic chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms through saturday afternoon.

2) strong to severe thunderstorms are possible monday. heavy
rainfall is also possible early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a quasi-stationary front is currently located across the
region. there is a warm and very humid airmass also across the
region. widely scattered showers and storms are redeveloping
this afternoon with some help from a weak lake breeze and old
outflow boundaries too. a broad upper level trough has setup
over the great lakes region. around the base of this upper level
trough will bring weak disturbances to aid in the development
of scattered showers and storms. a round of scattered convection
is expected to develop this afternoon for areas of neoh and
nwpa. this round will move eastward through the evening. another
round of scattered convection will develop over nwoh later this
evening and track eastward across northern ohio into nwpa
overnight. a couple strong to severe storms may be possible with
damaging wind gusts as the main threat. there is a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) highlighted from spc for the rest of today.

we will start off the day saturday fairly quiet. but the quasi-
stationary front will push through as as weak cold front during
the afternoon with additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. weak high pressure will build into the
area saturday night and sunday with a drier forecast. high
temperatures will be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

key message 2...
the weather pattern becomes more unsettled for the early part of
next week. a broad upper level trough will continue to be over
the great lakes region for early next week. another cold front
will drop down through the great lakes on monday and slow down
as it moves into our area. multiple rounds of convection will be
possible along this slow moving or quasi-stationary boundary
monday through wednesday. spc has highlighted the area in a day
4 severe weather outlook on monday. the main severe weather
threat will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. heavy
rainfall will also be a concern for monday into tuesday. wpc has
the area highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall
both monday and tuesday. timing of these multiple rounds of
convection is a little uncertain at this time. widespread
several inches of rainfall is very possible monday through
wednesday. the quasi-stationary front may finally push south of
the area by thursday into friday with lower rain chances and
slightly cool, less humid air.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
showers are beginning to initiate along a line from huron
county northeast to lake county. expect for this area of
showers to increase in coverage while sinking southeastward
across terminals through this evening. isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop as this line forms. opted to maintain
prob30 groups for ts impacts at all taf sites along and east of
i-71 as showers and storms will remain isolated to scattered in
coverage.

the initial push of showers/storms will exit to the southeast
this evening (~22z/fri-00z/sat) giving way to a brief break
tonight. a remnant shower/thunderstorm will enter the region
overnight tonight, mainly across inland terminals. confidence in
coverage remains low so opted to continue prob30 lines at
appropriate taf sites.

winds will remain southerly this afternoon and evening before
shifting more southwesterly tonight into saturday morning.

outlook...periods of non-vfr anticipated in scattered showers
and thunderstorms saturday, monday, and tuesday.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly flow 5-15 knots continues through
tonight before low pressure gliding east through the great
lakes drags a cold front across lake erie on saturday. winds
will turn onshore behind the front saturday night, remaining
between 10-15 knots. waves are expected to remain 2 feet or less
through the weekend. an area of high pressure will move
overhead on sunday leading light winds through sunday evening.
winds eventually favor southwesterly and return to 10-15 knots
sunday night through midweek. marine headlines are not
anticipated given largely offshore flow through the weekend and
beginning of next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
035
fxus63 kiwx 071750
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
150 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

.key messages...

- isolated to scattered storm chances (20-50%) this afternoon into
this evening, mainly along and south of the us 24 corridor.

- there is a slight chance (20%) for a brief shower or storm on
saturday.

- an active pattern brings periodic chances (50-70%) for
thunderstorms later sunday into early next week. heavy rain
and chances for strong to severe storms possible with this
activity, best chances monday afternoon into monday night.

- seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

a subtle shortwave will lift into southern and eastern portions of
the forecast area this afternoon into this evening with enough
ascent and instability for isolated to scattered showers/storms,
best chances (30-50%) along and south of the us 24 corridor. lower
chances (20%) to the northwest along any outflow/differential
heating boundaries. flow and lift through the column remain weak
with locally heavy rainfall and a few lightning strikes potential
hazards.

broad upper trough axis will swing east through the great lakes
later tonight into saturday. this will force an upstream cold front
southeast through the area later saturday morning into saturday
afternoon. overall moisture quality and frontal forcing appears weak
with only a low chance pop (20%) for a brief shower/storm with the
frontal passage and/or a leading pre-frontal feature. drier air does
briefly make inroads then into saturday night and sunday morning
post-frontal with sfc dewpoints falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

a more active period of monitoring convective complexes riding west-
northwest flow aloft remains in play later sunday through the middle
of next week. the initial theta-e surge in advance of a returning
warm front sunday afternoon into sunday night brings decent chances
for convection, though capping and uncertainty on if a mcs dropping
southeast through il/mo delays the moisture return with pops limited
in the chance to likely category (40-70%) for now. a quasi-zonal
frontal boundary then lingers in the general vicinity monday through
wednesday on the northern fringes of a southern conus subtropical
ridge with several rounds of rain and storms possible. this pattern
has the potential to yield some hydro issues, along with a threat
for strong to severe storms, particularly monday afternoon into
monday night.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 104 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

somewhat agitated cumulus is noted over central in, drifting
northeast in the vicinity of a washed-out frontal boundary.
high resolution guidance still favors isolated to perhaps
scattered showers and thunderstorms around the broader kfwa area
this afternoon. toward ksbn, satellite trends appear more
stable resulting in enough confidence to remove the wet weather
there.

upstream across southern mn is a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms that is anticipated to dissipate before making it
to northeast indiana near daybreak. however, the associated
front upstream may spark a few showers later in the morning but
confidence is low due to weak forcing.

wind tonight above 5 knots is favored to prevent br/fg. will
pass along to the incoming shift to monitor the possibility of
ifr stratus.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
735
fxus63 kdtx 071941
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
341 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

.key messages...

- isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms today
through the weekend. better coverage of showers and storms possible
monday.

- temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend, with highs
mainly in the 80s.

&&

.discussion...

we currently reside under a broad upper level trough downstream of
the primary trough axis located over mn. we are in a relative lull
in the pattern with thunderstorms along the main trough axis well to
the west and also to our east with the shortwave that passed through
overnight. locally, a narrow axis of mid level forcing seen on water
vapor imagery passing over the state this afternoon is expected to
help touch off isolated showers and storms utilizing the 1000-2000
j/kg of cape building up. shear remains weak, topping out around 20
knots currently so not expecting much in the way of stronger storms
organizing. wealth of dry air in the mid levels should also help
keep storms from getting too strong. spc meso analysis does have
dcape up around 1100 j/kg so any stronger storm will have
capabilities to produce a microburst. additional isolated storms
will be possible overnight as models indicate some strengthening in
the mid level vorticity band over far southern mi. loss of daytime
heating should help minimize coverage during this time.

saturday again poses a risk of isolated showers and storms although
latest guidance has trended down with expected coverage. as the main
trough axis arrives, a weak cold front will be tracking across
souther mi. the system looks to be disjointed with strong mid level
support arriving prior to 12z, weak low level jet arriving after 12z
coincident with a potential prefrontal trough which will push the
bulk of the instability east of the region, before the front sweeps
through in the early evening. there are enough pieces that could
briefly overlap with model estimates of around 1000-1500 j/kg of
cape building early in the day. spc day 2 outlook is for general
thunderstorms.

sunday looks mostly dry as ridging to the south folds over through
southern mi. we will be watching to the west as the next strong
shortwave starts advancing across the plains with surface low
pressure setting up around iowa and the warm front extending across
il and in. models are already indicating ridge running type mcs
activity with a complex possibly pushing across southern mi sunday
night into monday morning. for this setup along the warm front, spc
has already put locations south of a line from grand rapids to
detroit in a slight risk for severe weather.

general troughing and northwesterly flow across the region should
lead to cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week, with
highs back down in the upper 70s. this setup will also lead to
periodic rain chances.

&&

.marine...

most marine areas will remain relatively dry for the remainder of
the day. there is a chance for isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity overnight and into saturday as a cold front pushes across
the region. winds will generally remain on the lighter side outside
of any thunderstorm activity that does occur. southerly flow will
turn northwest going through the day on saturday behind the
departing cold front and may briefly top at or above 20 knots over
northern lake huron. high pressure then builds back in late saturday
into sunday before switching back to the south ahead of another
system set to impact the region monday. rain and thunderstorm
activity will remain low through the weekend, with better chances
for unsettled weather coming in at the start of next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 146 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

aviation...

a series of weak mid-level disturbances will impact the airspace
this afternoon and evening, attempting to generate isolated-scattered
showers/thunderstorms within a weakly capped environment. low
coverage of thunder limits confidence in direct impacts to terminals,
thus did not include -tsra in this taf issuance. otherwise, a mix of
sct-bkn coverage of low vfr persists through the evening alongside
light southwest flow. attention turns to the inbound cold front
overnight into saturday, which again presents opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms as moisture lifts into the airspace amidst
increasing southwest winds to 10-15 knots. the added moisture ahead
of the front may briefly result in mvfr ceilings saturday morning,
but quickly lifts to low vfr with daytime mixing and the frontal
passage. the frontal passage between 16z and 22z will be the most
likely timeframe for thunder, although hi-res models continue to be
lean on thunderstorm chances. the fropa also gradually shifts sw
winds to the w in the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... low potential for a thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening. another chance for thunderstorms exists
saturday afternoon between 16z and 22z as a cold front tracks across
the airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling aob 5000 ft early this afternoon and saturday
morning. low for the rest of the period.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. low saturday
afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......ss
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.