Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
957
fxus61 kcle 051851
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
251 pm edt tue may 5 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes. still looking at a good 0.75-1.30" of rain across
central and eastern portions of our area through early wednesday with
low-end flooding potential.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain is expected through early wednesday, with a few
isolated thunderstorms also possible through this evening. some
minor/nuisance flooding is possible in prone locations.

2) quieter and cooler weather with limited frost potential returns
for the second half of the week.

3) a more unsettled pattern with occasional rain chances returns late
friday through the beginning of next week, but with generally low
potential for any hazardous weather.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

a cold front is progressing southeast across the area this
afternoon. can not rule out some weak convection firing along the
cold front from the youngstown area into inland northwest pa late
this afternoon, though otherwise the bulk of the rain is post-frontal
and beginning to spread in from the west as of this writing. this
cold front is initially shallow and sloped, so even though the
surface front will clear our area to the southeast this evening it
will take until early wednesday morning for the mid-level front to
clear the area. the combination of the upper-reaches of the front and
a couple of shortwaves moving east-northeast across the region will
lead to continued lift and a fairly widespread/persistent rain
tonight, with rain exiting to the east very late tonight into
wednesday morning. by later this evening any elevated instability
should be used up, so most of the rain will be more stratiform in
nature outside of limited convection potential over the next several
hours, which is confined our south and southeast.

rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.30" remain in the forecast across central
and eastern portions of our area through early wednesday, with more
along the lines of 0.30-0.75" across the toledo area. locally higher
rainfall amounts may still play out if a corridor of organized
convection can evolve late this afternoon or evening, though that
overall concern has decreased a bit. overall, the idea of some
nuisance water issues with perhaps some minor river flooding at a
prone location (such as killbuck or phalanx station) should handle
it given the marginal/spread out duration of the rain.

lows will drop well into the 40s tonight as cooler weather returns,
with highs on wednesday in the mid to upper 50s. wednesday will not
feature much sun but will generally be once rain exits early. a few
sprinkles/showers may linger through midday across parts of northeast
oh and northwest pa...and a shortwave may bring a few sprinkles or
light showers from southwest to northeast across the area during the
afternoon and early evening, though weak lift and a drying column
decrease confidence in measurable rain occurring with this feature.

key message #2:

mainly quiet and cool weather is expected through the end of the
week. beneath cold air aloft, a shortwave and subtle surface trough
may be enough to spark a few showers across northeast oh or northwest
pa thursday afternoon, though much of the area should stay dry. a few
showers are possible on friday as a warm front lifts across the area,
though overall coverage looks low with any rain amounts light.

highs will remain in the 50s for thursday before recovering into the
60s (outside of the higher terrain of northwest pa) for friday. the
cooler airmass does bring some frost potential wednesday and thursday
nights, though neither is an ideal setup for it. a weak lingering
pressure gradient is expected wednesday night with some lingering
clouds possible across northeast oh/northwest pa, with increasing
clouds and a tightening pressure gradient expected for thursday night
as high pressure departs to the southeast and a warm front
approaches. still, some patchier frost may occur either or both
nights in typically colder inland locales.

key message #3:

a more active pattern is expected to return friday night through
early next week, on the southwestern periphery of deeper troughing
over southeast canada. systems are expected to move through friday
night and again sunday into monday, each bringing a window of
elevated rainfall chances. despite the unsettled pattern, neither
system currently appears to bring a notable severe weather or heavy
rain concern. temperatures will generally be near normal this
weekend, trending a bit cooler early next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
showers have started moving into the area with a cold front and
expect rain to fill in over the next several hours and continue
through early wednesday morning. isolated thunderstorms are
possible along the leading edge of precipitation at eastern
terminals late this afternoon into early this evening.
confidence in the placement/overall likelihood of storms is low
so have prob30 groups for thunder for the time being. most
locations will experience a prolonged period of mvfr/ifr
conditions in lower ceilings and low visibility in rain,
although ktol may be spared from longer duration sub-vfr
conditions. confidence in ifr and periods of lifr conditions is
highest at kcle/kmfd/kcak/kyng/keri. rain will gradually end
from west to east starting early wednesday morning with
precipitation ending at kyng and keri by no later than around
15z wednesday morning. lower ceilings will likely persist for a
few hours after rain ends.

winds will be breezy at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25
knots ahead of the cold front with wind direction quickly
shifting to the north/northwest behind the front by this
evening. winds will diminish to 10 knots or less behind the
front with similar flow continuing through 18z wednesday.

outlook...periods of non-vfr possible in periodic showers friday
through the weekend. thunderstorms are possible friday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will move southeast of the lake this evening and
expect winds to shift to the north/northwest and diminish to 10
knots or less tonight through wednesday. from there, winds will
generally be out of the west/northwest at 10 knots or less with
periods of winds to 15 knots possible late wednesday night and
thursday night. southwest winds will develop late week and into
the weekend with winds and waves likely remaining below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
500
fxus63 kiwx 051811
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
211 pm edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- rain with a few non-severe thunderstorms through late this
evening, mainly along and south of us 24. rain tapers off from
northwest to southeast later tonight. cloudy cover will become
more scattered overnight into wednesday morning. lows around
40 degrees.

- cool and dry wednesday and thursday, with highs in the mid-
upper 50s. low temperatures wednesday night into thursday
morning will be in the mid-upper 30s. areas of frost are
possible, especially in michigan and for areas along and north
of us 30 in indiana and ohio. warmer thursday night.

- warmer starting friday and continuing into the weekend, with
highs in the 60s and low 70s. there are chances for rain each
day, with the best potential friday afternoon and sunday.
thunderstorms are possible, especially friday afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 210 pm edt tue may 5 2026

a stalled cold front lingers just southeast of our cwa, with a sfc
trough over lake michigan that will shift eastward through the
afternoon and evening. aloft, fairly zonal flow today, with a
broader trough extending from a closed low over james bay into the
northern plains. at 300mb, a 120kt jet streak from south dakota to
quebec will couple with a 130kt jet streak extending from the desert
sw into our area. this will provide upper level support this
afternoon into later this evening for continued precipitation-
especially along and south of us 24. a surface low-type feature
lifts northeastward along our frontal boundary with time, with
moisture transport focused along/ahead of it (best transport to us
late this afternoon/early evening). upstream t-storm activity has
been sparse thus far, but with better forcing arriving along the
surface front late this afternoon/evening (peak heating), we could
see scattered development for a brief time. severe weather is not
expected. otherwise, in the far nw where precipitation chances are
lowest-expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

for areas north of us 24, expect cloud cover to become more
scattered overnight. rain chances taper off for areas along/south of
us 24, ending by morning. lows will fall to around 40 degrees.

expecting dry conditions on wednesday-thursday, with a surface high
building into the great lakes. an upper level trough associated with
the aforementioned 500mb low over james bay/hudson lake will bring a
couple of shortwaves through during this time, but dry air is likely
to preclude any precipitation until late thu pm/friday. highs will
be in the mid-upper 50s.

low temperatures wednesday night into thursday morning will be in
the mid-upper 30s. areas of frost are possible, especially in
michigan and for areas along and north of us 30 in indiana and ohio.
warmer thursday night. any sensitive vegetation could be damaged
with frost.

warm air advection friday will bring highs into the low to mid 60s
during the day, with a cold front passing through from nw to se late
in the afternoon/evening, reaching southeast of our area by 7am et
saturday. there are chances for showers and thunderstorms
along/ahead of the front. after a lull saturday morning, additional
chances for precipitation return in the late afternoon and overnight
as an upper level trough moves in. a surface low takes shape by
sunday morning right over il/in, and continues eastward through late
sunday evening. for now have higher-end precipitation chances during
this period, with low chances for thunder. highs saturday will be in
the upper 60s, low-mid 70s, then drop into the 60s, low 70s by
sunday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 131 pm edt tue may 5 2026

a cold front is expected to slide southeastward from the lower great
lakes to the tennessee river valley during the next 24 hours. given
the location of the better moisture and the llj, the better rain
chances exist along and south of us-24, which affects fwa, but
likely keeps sbn in vfr conditions. fwa likely sees mvfr conditions
as the rain affects it. better moisture sinks from the mid- down to
the lower levels of the atmosphere making mvfr cigs possible there
between 20 and 00z this evening. otherwise, dry air continues to
push southward allowing a return to vfr thereafter.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
505
fxus63 kdtx 051928
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
328 pm edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- much cooler temperatures and periodic shower chances rest of today
through friday.

- temperatures drop into the mid-30s thursday morning, possibly
leading to frost development.

- warmer this weekend with continued rain chances.

&&

.discussion...

broad longwave troughing governs the forecast over the next 7 days,
supporting a showery pattern and below normal temperatures through
the end of the work week. first instance of this is ongoing as the
elevated remnants of a frontal zone slowly exit se michigan. quicker
pace of the front has displaced the highest rain chances to our south
and east compared to previous forecasts, although a second wave of
moisture over western illinois may clip southern portions of the
forecast area later this evening. this keeps rain chances going
through late tonight for locations south of i-96. cloud cover
diminishes toward northern lower michigan away from the frontal zone,
with the saginaw valley/thumb on the northern fringe of the cloud
shield. this has implications for radiative cooling overnight, as
lows drop into the upper 30s to low 40s under a blanket of high
cloud. if cloud cover can clear entirely, some areas may see patchy
frost development (most likely for northern portions of midland/bay),
but confidence is low in this outcome.

thermal trough settles into the great lakes region wednesday-friday,
drawing a pool of -5 to -10 c 850mb temperatures overhead. this
leads to a period of below normal temperatures with daytime highs
only reaching the upper 50s. coldest temperatures are forecast to be
thursday morning (mid-30s) as the base of the trough coincides with
the diurnal minimum and clearing skies. frost/freeze headlines will
be considered in subsequent forecast updates. this period will also
be characterized by multiple embedded shortwaves pivoting around the
hudson bay upper low. diffluent northwest flow initially keeps
conditions dry wednesday, even amidst synoptic ascent as one such
wave glances across northern lower michigan and the left exit of a
155 knot jet streak surges in from the south. a stray shower cannot
entirely be ruled out invof the vort max, but overall 5.0-18.0 kft
agl dry layer should be sufficient in preventing widespread shower
development. combination of cold advection and the next embedded wave
thursday lead to steepening low level lapse rates (sfc-3km lapse
rates exceed 7.0 c/km) and moistening mid levels to increase
convective shower chances thursday afternoon-evening. this wave train
pattern continues friday into the weekend, carrying periodic rain
chances through the remainder of the forecast period.

the overall precipitation pattern offers low predictability given
weak/transient forcing, disjointed moisture quality, and synoptic
scale wave interactions. there is model signal for a cold front to
track across the area sometime saturday-saturday night, which would
provide a more focused opportunity for shower and thunderstorm
chances. depending on the timing of this front, temperatures could
warm well into the 60s saturday in the presence of warm and breezy
warm sector flow. ensemble members however still exhibit quite a bit
of variance in both timing/placement of the forcing this weekend
with a lot of details to work out before then.

&&

.marine...

a cold front is clearing the central great lakes this evening, with
cold air advection gradually filtering through over the next couple
of days. because the main low and tightest pressure gradient will
reside near or over hudson bay, winds are expected to stay mostly on
the light side (under 20 knots) for the rest of the work week. this
pattern of clipper systems bringing periodic chances for showers
will continue into the weekend as milder air and higher moisture
levels arrive. as it stands now, this leads to saturday night being
the primary window for showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold
front slowly moves through the region.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt tue may 5 2026

aviation...

two minor ageostrophic circulations, stemming from a complex upper
level jet configuration, will lift northeastward this afternoon and
tonight. latest progs support weak lift with the suppressed
baroclinic zone limiting vertical motion with northwest extent.
decided to keep a prevailing group for light, high ceiling based
precipitation at the detroit terminals through 02z with dry
conditions at kfnt and kmbs. will monitor trends and amend as
needed. high confidence in scattering of ceilings wednesday morning
with a boundary layer redevelopment for wednesday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are anticipated this evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms today and tonight.

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today and tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......sf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.