Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
787
fxus61 kcle 030748
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
348 am edt thu sep 3 2026

.what has changed...
a heat advisory has been issued for central and northwestern ohio
for this afternoon.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat and humidity continues for one more day across central and
northwestern ohio with heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s.

2) rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue today through early
saturday morning with the potential of storms being severe today and
friday.

3) quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
elevated heat risk will continue for one more day across central and
northwestern ohio today before temperatures begin to moderate friday
into the weekend. the ridge is slowly beginning to retreat to the
southwest as low pressure moves north of the great lakes to the
east. 850mb temperatures will still be around 20-22c for the western
half of the cwa resulting in surface temperatures to be in the low
90s. dew points again will be elevated in the low to mid 70s that
will push heat indices to around 100f this afternoon into the early
evening. there`s some uncertainty with the eastern extent of the
elevated heat indices as precipitation is expected over the course
of the day today. current guidance suggests that precipitation will
be scattered in eastern ohio through the morning and into the
afternoon that will help keep heat indices down overall to the east.
whereas western ohio should be free of any scattered precipitation
so temperatures will have the chance to climb before precipitation
is expected in the early evening. by that time, more widespread
precipitation is expected to move in from the northwest that
will temper heat indices this evening. based on this, a heat advisory
has been issued for central and western ohio for this afternoon
into the evening. overnight, temperatures will still be warm
with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, though will not rise as
much on friday due to the rounds of precipitation expected
throughout the day. a cold front will move south across the
region late friday into early saturday and temperatures will
regulate back to around seasonal for the weekend and into early
next week.

key message 2...
more rounds of thunderstorms and potential severe weather will
continue through today and friday and, to a lesser extent,
saturday morning. there will be isolated morning convection
across the eastern portion of the cwa that should exit to the
east with the shortwave. another shortwave is expected to move
into the region this afternoon/evening bringing support for more
thunderstorms and severe weather potential. instability will
still be elevated with mlcape around 1500-2000 j/kg and bulk
shear of 30-35 knots. lapse rates will also climb to around
7.0-7.5 c/km with daytime heating. this will promote downburst
potential across the region during the afternoon and evening for
any storms that start to develop. the better chance for showers
and thunderstorms will be in the later evening into the
overnight with the shortwave. clusters of thunderstorms are
possible with this that will bring the threat for damaging wind
gusts and large hail. an isolated tornado is possible as well as
0-1km shear vectors increase ahead of the feature. spc has
highlighted the entire area today in a slight risk (level 2 out
of 5) for severe weather due to this. the shortwave should exit
to the southeast early friday morning and a brief break is
expected ahead of the next shortwave.

this shortwave will enter the region from the northwest mid-morning
friday moving to the southeast. the ridge will have retreat to the
southwest more by this time so the thunderstorm chances will have
moved along with it to be more focused on the central and western
portions of the cwa. there won`t be much recover in the atmosphere
between the previous shortwave and this one, so the severe weather
threat will be lower. that being said, there will still be plenty of
instability, especially in central and northwestern ohio that will
help support any severe weather. there`s still some discrepancies
among the models for friday in regards to timing and coverage, but
generally, coverage should be lower, limiting the overall severe
weather impacts. a cold front will be associated with this shortwave
as it pushes to the south through early saturday. the front will be
slow to move out of the area, so lingering showers and thunderstorms
are possible into early saturday morning.

in addition to the severe weather potential, there will be the
chance for heavy rain and flooding in places that see persistent
rainfall. with the elevated cape, pwats will be around 1.50-2.00"
across the region that will give enough support for the flooding
potential. generally, the time frame that looks to be the most
susceptible to flooding will be tonight into friday.

key message 3...
high pressure will begin to build across the region saturday
afternoon and persist through early next week. building south from
canada, this will drop high temperatures to a more pleasant upper
70s to low 80s with lower humidity. overnight lows will be down into
the upper 50s to low 60s as well.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
ongoing convection moving in off lake erie continues for
cle/eri, and could move into the cak/yng area. terminals further
west likely not to have to deal with this activity. storms have
histories of 25-40kt wind gusts and expect this to persist for
the next couple of hours in ne oh/nw pa. after convective
activity subsides after 08z, mid level cloud deck remains
through the night cle-mf and terminals east. cumulus field
develops again thursday with tsra potential after 16z, mainly
for tol/cle/eri/cak/yng. could see another round after that
towards the end of the 06z friday time frame, and may see this
populated in the 12z set of tafs later this morning for later
thursday night.

outlook... non-vfr possible in rounds of showers/storms through
early friday.

&&

.marine...
a stationary front will oscillate north and south along lake erie
through friday before finally pushing southward and through the
region. variable winds can be expected through this period with wave
heights around a foot during this time frame. once the cold front
passes south of the lake, winds will increase out of the northeast
10-20kts into the weekend with central and western wave heights
building to 2-3ft through sunday. winds offshore once again after
monday with wave heights back down to a foot or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for ohz003-006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
224
fxus63 kdtx 030745
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
345 am edt thu sep 3 2026

.key messages...

- warm and humid again today with heat indices in the 90s, the
warmest of which will be found closer to the mi/oh border and into
the metro region.

- there is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather today.
severe weather development will be possible at all times today, but
most favorable timing will be this afternoon into late tonight.

- shower and thunderstorm chances continue into tomorrow.

&&

.discussion...

for this morning... spc mesoanalysis continues to showcase mucape
values around 2000 j/kg along with 35-40 knots of effective bulk
shear with sufficient mid-level lapse rates around 5.5-6c/km. these
conditions have supported repeated rounds of thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, primarily along and and between m59 to i94.
initiation has taken place along a quasi-stationary frontal zone
which has been reinforced from prior convective outflow. additional
showers and storms remain possible through this morning as this
boundary provides a mechanism for ascent within this subtropical
airmass. given the degree of elevated instability and bulk shear,
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through
the morning.

warm and humid conditions are again expected this afternoon
dewpoints again holding in the upper 60s to low 70s. current
thinking is that temperatures will be slightly lower relative to
yesterday which decreases probabilities to reach heat advisory
thresholds. additionally, given where the frontal boundary is, some
potential exists for showers and thunderstorms through the late
morning and into the afternoon which if materialized, could temper
temperatures locally. although several hi-res solutions continue to
retain an early day period of clearing and stronger insolation.
regardless, temperatures will be capable of pushing back into the
upper 80s to low 90s through the mi/oh border into the metro region
with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

for this afternoon and evening, se mi will be susceptible to renewed
thunderstorm activity. one possible scenario will stream from
activity upstream across wisconsin or the western great lakes as a
strengthening llj pools moisture and enhances convergence along the
stalled frontal zone. mean flow and forecasted storm motion would
carry this activity se towards lower michigan through the afternoon
and evening, placing all of se mi within the corridor for potential
strong to severe thunderstorm development. surface based instability
will increase with southward extend. sbcape around 1500-2000 j/kg is
possible near the mi/oh border and tapers towards 1000 j/kg north of
i-69. deep layer shear around 30-35 knots remains solid for
organized convection with all storm modes possible.

damaging wind gusts will remain the primary hazard when taking into
account strong low-level lapse rates, high pw, and strong buoyancy.
this will support efficient precipitation loading for wet
microbursts and/or consolidation of outflows with cold pool dynamics
that can support bowing segments. isolate large hail also remains
possible given improving mid-level lapse rates approaching 6.5c/km.
a large portion of se mi has been upgraded to a slight risk in the
latest swody 1, aligned where the better daytime instability is
projected to reside.

additional rounds of showers and storms then becomes increasingly
likely late tonight into friday morning as an elevated warm front
strengthens from se wi into lower michigan. this has been a pretty
robust signal in the latest 00z runs. the boost in low to mid-level
theta a with convergence along this boundary will help support an
area of showers and storms overnight. while surface base instability
diminishes during this time, elevated instability and strong shear
holds which will maintain potential for organized convection. storm
threat would transition to hail given the more elevated nature of
this activity along with localized heavy rainfall and flooding,
especially with any repeated convection along the boundary. some
uncertainty resides how far east this activity will extend, but the
trends still take activity to or south of m59 overnight.

friday will again offer additional chances for rain and thunderstorm
before ridge amplification across the plains aids in reinforcing
high pressure over the great lakes, which will work to decrease rain
and thunderstorm chances this weekend.

&&

.marine...

winds and waves remain below threshold criteria across the central
great lakes, aside from a few thunderstorms passing through a very
muggy air mass this afternoon and evening. gradient winds will shift
from southwest to northwest once a weak cold front drops
southeastward through region. convective chances decrease a bit
overnight within the wake of the slowing front, and winds could
briefly trend towards calm. a low confidence forecast persist
through the end of the week and early this weekend as a ridge over
central conus remains quasi-stationary. this offers several
additional opportunities for periods of showers and thunderstorms.
mws and smw headlines will continued to be used to address short-
term local watercraft concerns. no long-fused headline concerns
through the weekend, although areas of dense fog could become an
issue again late tonight into thursday morning for portions of the
waterways.

&&

.hydrology...

there will be multiple chances for thunderstorm development through
the entirety of the day today, with the afternoon and evening hours
affording the best time frame for some better coverage. given that
se mi remains in a subtropical air mass, precipitation rates will be
very efficient with any thunderstorms. a quick 1-2" of rainfall will
be possible with any stronger thunderstorms which would lead to
localized flooding concerns. overnight, there is a signal for
showers or thunderstorm development to then set up around or south
of m59, which will be capable of producing an additional 1-2+" of
rainfall pending where this rainfall axis sets up.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 212 am edt thu sep 3 2026

aviation...

an additional round of scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed along the slowly advancing cold front around the m-59
corridor to start this taf period and will most likely impact ptk
and det over the next few hours. north of the front are mvfr
ceilings and mvfr or less vsby reductions that should persist
through the rest of the night, though conditions may fluctuate at
times across mbs and maybe down towards fnt late tonight. after the
ongoing area of tsra pushes east, there should be a lull in activity
until this afternoon as additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop upstream and move across southeast michigan. a period of
predominately vfr conditions should precede that arrival.

d21/dtw convection... area of tsra to start this taf period appears
it should hold north of dtw over. additional chance to see tsra will
start in the mid afternoon into the evening time frame.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less early this morning and this
afternoon.

* moderate for thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......kgk
hydrology....am
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.