Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
344
fxus61 kcle 020752
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
352 am edt tue jun 2 2026

.what has changed...
conditions remain dry across the area with no changes needed
with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions with a warming trend expected through the
week.

2) scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure builds southeast across the great lakes region
through wednesday before departing to the southeast conus
thursday and friday. highs in the 70s warm to the 80s by
thursday and friday.

key message 2...
warm, moist air will build over the weekend over the weekend on
account of southwest flow behind the departing high pressure,
resulting in a more humid airmass favorable for thunderstorms
development. showers and storms are most likely ahead of a
southeastward moving upper-level trough and cold front pair on
saturday and sunday, with isolated showers and storms possible
lingering into monday. relatively weak flow aloft will keep the
severe weather threat low (although there are a few outlier
models that have better flow aloft, so perhaps still a bit of
uncertainty in that regard). however, high humidity is
forecast, with pwat values likely to exceed 90th percentile, so
heavy downpours are likely with developed convection. weak flow
parallel to the cold front could also slightly favor a low-end
localized flooding risk.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr across the taf sites early this morning with vfr to persist
through the taf period. north to northeast winds will increase
later this morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots, with periodic
gusts of 20 to perhaps 25 knots possible, especially at cle/fdy.
winds will diminish to less than 5 knots after sunset.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms friday
night into saturday.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the week and
into the weekend as high pressure persists across the region.
could see a brief period of 2 to 3-foot waves this morning and
early afternoon with slightly higher northeast flow around 15
knots. waves should gradually subside by mid to late afternoon
as winds decrease to 10 knots or less. otherwise, overall flow
will generally remain light through much of the week, before
shifting to the southwest late friday through saturday, 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
902
fxus63 kiwx 021041
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
641 am edt tue jun 2 2026

.key messages...

- dry and trending warmer through thursday.

- warm and more humid friday through the weekend with highs well
into the 80s.

- periodic chances (30-60%) for scattered showers and storms
friday afternoon through sunday, best chances on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 121 am edt tue jun 2 2026

high pressure will advance across the region with the main axis
passing overhead wednesday. seasonable highs in the 70s are expected
as it passes. strong mixing today and possibly wed will allow
pockets of lower afternoon rh values as well as somewhat gustier
winds. given green-up already finished and overall conditions still
somewhat moist the risk for fire weather concerns low.

low level temperatures warm on thursday and friday with highs well
into the 80s. moisture will take a bit of time to get here, with mid
to upper 50 dewpoints into friday before muggy mid 60 dewpoints
arrive for the weekend and into next week. the upper level flow
flattens and allows a series of weak disturbances to move
through the region as the better moisture arrives. while some
convection could occur diurnally as early as friday afternoon,
better chances seem to reside with saturday and possibly into
sunday as a more pronounced wave arrives. med range models vary
on timing and strength, leading to low confidence at this point.
while the highest pops are saturday. these are subject to
change. additional chances for convection exist into next week,
but warrant no more than slgt chc to chc.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 639 am edt tue jun 2 2026

mid clouds have dissipated with vfr conditions still expected to
dominate. winds will pick up, mainly at kfwa out of the ne later
this morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
037
fxus63 kdtx 020946
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
546 am edt tue jun 2 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with plentiful sunshine continues through mid week.

- near normal temperatures early week become warmer and much more
humid into next weekend.

- the next chance of rain develops friday and continues through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure parked over the region will lead to another day of vfr
conditions. winds will remain out of the northeast as the center of
the high is positioned over ontario. could see a couple hours of
gusts this afternoon but speeds will largely remain below 10 knots.
a few cirrus rotating around the high may pass over today, but skies
will otherwise remain clear below 20kft.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through tomorrow.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 am edt tue jun 2 2026

discussion...

blocking pattern over north america and the great lakes region will
persist a few more days this week albeit morphing from the high
amplitude omega feature into more a rex block configuration. the
greatest geopotential height center in a deep portion of the
atmosphere centers over lower michigan late today and wednesday.
most recent naefs data continues to suggest 99.5 percentile or
climatological maximums for geopotential heights between 1000 and
500mb from this morning through approximately 06z thursday. the net
result will be warmer daytime temperatures with daytime readings
climbing into the 80s wednesday and thursday.

upper level ridging in the rex block flattens significantly by
friday and saturday as an entrance region to a weak jetlet settles
into lower michigan. models continue to advertise a fairly
unorganized frontal boundary developing under the jet entrance region
as great plains moisture/latent heating begins to streamline
eastward. low confidence continues for both when precipitation
chances will begin here across southeast michigan and as to how long
favorable dynamics for ascent will stall out. shower and thundestorm
chances will be needed at minimum for the late friday through sunday
time period. low confidence on character of convection as alot will
depend on storm scale mesoscale complex dynamics. the main narrative
late in the forecast period continues to be much warmer with a lot
more humidity.

marine...

high pressure builds south into the great lakes today, with
northeast winds becoming variable this evening-wednesday. the high
pressure center reaches the ohio valley thursday, causing winds to
organize out of the southwest. quiet marine conditions persist until
friday-this weekend when the governing ridge breaks down. this will
be the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...cb
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.