Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
998
fxus61 kcle 181210
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
710 am est wed feb 18 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes at the moment. the potential for snow
accumulations across parts of the area during the second half of
the weekend into monday will be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.key messages...
1) above average temperatures expected through friday with periodic
rain showers during that time frame. rivers will continue to be
monitored for rises due to ice jam potential.

2) seasonable temperatures expected this weekend through early next
week with potential for snow showers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front has started to lift through the western portion of the
area early this morning and will continue to push northward. rain
showers can be seen along the front due to isentropic lift, though
the showers currently are fairly light and should push out to the
east into pennsylvania before sunrise. there will be a few hour
period where it will be dry before the cold front moves through this
afternoon and early evening. qpf for the day has gone down over the
past few forecast runs as the southern extent of the precipitation
was in question. currently, most of the area will receive around a
tenth to two tenth of rain with higher amounts in northeastern ohio
and northwestern pennsylvania of two to four tenths. there will be
some potential for those higher amounts to reach half an inch, but
those will tend to be localized. additionally, there will be a bit of
instability to accompany the showers and along the cold front to
where a rumble of thunder or two will be possible.

with the passing warm front, temperatures have stayed in the mid to
upper 40s and will rise up into the mid to upper 50s with areas in
the west and southwest of the cwa reaching into the 60s. with the
rising temperatures and the rainfall expected today, there could be
a minor response in rivers and streams across the region. localized
ice jams will also be possible as ice along rivers has begun to
break apart. potential will span the next few days before
temperatures begin to moderate and rain changes over to snow this
weekend. will need to continue to monitor the rivers for any
response.

a llj of 30 to 50 knots will move over the region throughout the day
today that will support strong wind gusts at the surface. winds will
peak around the time of the cold front passage this afternoon with
gusts 20 to 30 mph and subside into the evening. there will be
another chance for stronger winds on friday as a more potent low
pressure system moves into the great lakes region where wind gusts
of over 30 mph will be possible.

another chance for rain returns on friday as a low pressure system
lifts out of the mid-mississippi valley into the great lakes region.
a warm front will pass through the region late thursday night into
early friday morning that will have some instability along with it,
so a few thunderstorms could be possible. along with the
instability, there will be modest shear ahead of the front that
may support stronger wind gusts as thunderstorms move into the
region, though the greatest chance for this will be in the
southwestern portion of the cwa. instability should wane with
the passing, occluding cold front early friday morning.


key message 2...
behind the cold front on friday, temperatures will begin to moderate
to a more seasonable levels as colder air moves in from the
northwest. highs on saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s and
drop down into the mid 30s on sunday. the trend will continue into
early next week with highs near 30 across the region.

low pressure will track to the south of the region this weekend as
an upper level trough moves into the great lakes. this will bring
the potential for precipitation to the region sunday into early next
week. with the colder air moving in, accumulating snow showers will
be possible. there will be the potential, depending on how the low
to the south progresses, that some wet synoptic snow will fall
across the region. on the back side of the low, with the west to
northwesterly flow, lake enhanced snow showers will be possible that
could linger into early next week. ridging will begin to build in to
the region on monday that will push any remaining precipitation out
and dry weather is expected.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a warm front extending from low pressure over minnesota will
lift northeast across the region today. an initial area of rain
near eri will move east out of the area through 13z. meanwhile
rain is expanding across indiana and will move east across the
region through 18z. the trend has been for slightly higher
ceilings today and have primarily mvfr in the forecast at
tol/fdy while while locations from cle and mfd eastward are
still expected to have a window of ifr. poor conditions are
likely to develop at eri this afternoon and persist into tonight
as the front stalls overnight. low ifr conditions are expected
with dense fog possible. elsewhere some patchy fog is also
possible at tol and terminals in northeast ohio where skies
clear and moist boundary layer conditions remain.

outlook...non-vfr conditions possible late thursday into friday
in rain showers. non vfr returns saturday night and continues
through sunday with snow likely.

&&

.marine...
movement of the ice fields on lake erie are possible today as
southwesterly winds ramp up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon as a
warm front lifts north across the lake. ice has been weakening due
to warm temperatures and ice floes may close open shipping channels,
along with ridging and rafting of the ice. winds are expected to
decrease fairly quickly this evening and then develop out of the
east by thursday. easterly winds increase to 10 to 20 knots on
thursday night and then veer to southwesterly at 30 knots with the
passage of a cold front on friday. the strong winds on friday may be
enough to loosen or move the fast ice west of the lake erie
islands. later in the weekend winds shift to northwesterly at 15
to 25 knots and may push ice back towards the south shore of
the lake.


people are urged to stay off the lake erie ice this week! ice floes
are likely and may strand people venturing out on the ice, which may
break away from shore or the lake erie islands.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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629
fxus63 kiwx 181331
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
831 am est wed feb 18 2026

.key messages...

- record to near record highs today and thursday

- isolated thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds possible
early this morning and again thursday afternoon and evening

- severe storms not expected, but gusty winds with storms likely

- local flooding not expected with antecedently dry ground
conditions and with fast-moving storms.

&&

.update...
issued at 806 am est wed feb 18 2026

tongue of moisture pushing through this morning signals the
final thunderstorm threat today as the column dries behind that.
there`s plenty of kinematics and some instability as well, but
the dry slot moving in ends the thunderstorm threat today. as a
cold front slides through, and potentially stalls just south of
us-24, the jet across the south dissipates and its the jet
across lake mi and into mi that remains. mixing heights stay
below 850 mb through the day until the evening when that jet
pushes into mi. this keeps gusts below 30 kts, but given dry air
moving in (50 f dew points drop to 30 degrees this evening),
this could be enough to dry out grasses. recent snowmelt and
morning rain may be enough to keep the ground wet, but could
leaves on the ground dry out too? looks more like a dry grasses
kind of fire weather day if at all.

as far as thursday`s thunderstorm threat goes, given main low is
still back over the central plains, we`ll be watching for
individual shortwaves ejecting out of that area. there appears
to be one such wave that moves through during the midday,
thursday, but that may be on the early side to get any
instability going in this february air. this is why hi-res
models seem to be pointing to the better severe potential
staying south as outflow boundaries push south and instability
is eaten up. the kinematics are still the main worry for
tomorrow though, because shear and even some helicity looks to
be around for if there`s any forcing and instability that can be
squeezed out. some thunderstorms are still possible, but the
severity remains the question at this point.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1249 am est wed feb 18 2026

a powerful mid level jet at 500 mb with a speed max close to 120
knots per gfs was approaching ca at the time of this writing. these
strong winds are expected to translate north as the upper trof along
the west coast amplifies. this scenario will cause surface moisture
to surge north downstream of the trof axis across the ohio river
wednesday night and thursday and ahead of a strong cold front.
unseasonably mild temperatures will rise well into the 60s with
record to near record highs today. record highs are 66 degrees at
south bend and 67 at ft wayne respectively. surface dew points
should rise into the 50s south of highway 30 (oxi[knox]-asw-fwa-
aoh). bufkit soundings support low-topped storms with low capes
(generally below 200 [20k feet]).

the front should race across the forecast area including northern
indiana late thursday night. conditions after midnight should have
stabilized somewhat from afternoon capes reaching close to 600 j/kg.
strong gusty winds are expected with the storms before much cooler
air spreads across the area early friday. at this time, severe
storms are not expected, but wind gusts to 50 mph are possible with
the strong storms ahead and along the front. the gfs has been
very consistent with the system including storms only producing
around a quarter of an inch of rain. this amount of rain appears
reasonable and on track given the environment and fast storm
track. the flood risk from storms appears extremely low given
the antecedently dry conditions and limited rainfall.

otherwise, much colder air will spread over the area friday and
prevail over the weekend. the gfs bufkit shows a shallow cold
layer with the base of the inversion under 5000 ft (850 mb).
given a west fetch, a limited residence time, a shallow
inversion and a deep subsidence area above the inversion,
limited to very limited lake effect snow amounts are expected.
current thinking is any lake effect snow impacts should be
minor.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 628 am est wed feb 18 2026

additional rain showers continue moving through the area in
wake of a warm frontal passage that moved through last evening.
mvfr cigs for ksbn through 16z wed and periods of mvfr cig/vsbys for
kfwa through about 17z wed. low level wind shear will also
continue to be possible for the same periods. southwesterly
wind gusts at the surface up to 30kts this afternoon. after 16z
to 17z wed for both taf sites improvements in both cigs and
vsbys with the arrival of a dry slot which will bring a return
to vfr conditions through about 09-10z thu before a downward
trend to mvfr vsbys in mist through the remaining taf period
with even periods of ifr vsbys possible for kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...roller
discussion...skipper
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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110
fxus63 kdtx 181441
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
941 am est wed feb 18 2026

.key messages...

- widespread precipitation this morning, with temperatures warm
enough to support rain. an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

- mild temperatures persist through thursday.

- renewed chance for rain late thursday into friday morning, with
snow shower chances by friday afternoon or evening.

&&

.update...

no critical changes needed to the gridded database or the forecast
messaging.

lead edge of steep 700-500mb lapse rates, 8.0-8.5 c/km, is
quickly approaching the doorstep of forecast area. there have been a
few rumbles of thunder upstream, but activity has been extremely
transient and the near surface environment below 5.0kft agl remains
very stable. based on timing of hourly output hires, the belief is
that isolated thunder will be possible here the next 1.5 to 2.5
hours. there has been some snow reported as a precipitation type at
bax with some up at ikw as well. suspect there have been melting
snowflakes mixing in with the precipitation. with dewpoints at or
above freezing not expecting any impacts. there has been no
indication that travel has been impacted across the area this
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 657 am est wed feb 18 2026

aviation...

a warm front moving northward from the ohio border dictates aviation
conditions this morning. a wide range of ceiling and visibility
observed as of 12z will fill in to ifr with borderline lifr as a
band of showers catches up from the west. a rumble of thunder is
also possible but with predictability on the low side for any one
terminal location. rapid improvement then occurs this afternoon as
the system dry slot and occlusion sweep west to east across lower mi.
the exception is in the mbs area where the warm front/occlusion is
slow to move north and may even stall overhead. farther south, wind
becomes sw with gusts around 25 knots until closer to sunset. a
clearing trend this evening brings another round of fog as surface
frontal remnants linger across the region through sunrise thursday.

for dtw... ifr ceiling and visibility solidify this morning as a
band of rain showers moves in from the west while the front moves
northward from the ohio border. a rumble of thunder is possible
followed by rapid ceiling and visibility improvement this afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below 1/2sm
this morning.

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet this morning through early
afternoon.

* high for precip type as all rain this morning.

* low for thunderstorms this morning.

prev discussion...
issued at 458 am est wed feb 18 2026

discussion...

slow progression of an occluded low pressure system across mn has
brought multiple ribbons of precipitation to se mi tied to enhanced
system relative isentropic ascent in the mid-levels. these initial
bands will continue to progress northeastward through the mid-morning
hours, which will eventually give way to a more dynamically enhanced
second round, leading to some enhanced rainfall rates particularly
for the tri-cities and thumb. elongation of the jet stream into the
northern ohio river valley will help induce a stronger ageostrophic
response under enhanced upper-level divergence while a trialing
vorticity maximum rounds the base of the trough and pivots into se
mi, leading to the enhancement of rainfall rates. instability looks
to be mostly disjointed from precipitation, leading to lower end
chances for thunderstorms. however, cannot rule out some isolated
activity with mid-level lapse rates holding around 7c/km.

all rain to abruptly end through the late morning to early afternoon
as a prominent mid-level dry slot rapidly moves across the great
lakes with surface flow backing to the southwest in the wake of a
warm front. this front is projected to stall out across the cwa,
likely somewhere across the tri-cities and greater portion of the
thumb, and possibly stalling farther west across portions of
tuscola/lapeer/st. clair. temperature contrast will be stark on
either side of the stalled front, with highs making a push towards
60 (closer to the mi/oh border, where temperatures fail to push out
of the 40s north of the front. brief window for some late day mixing
also brings potential for gusts around 20-25 mph within the warm
sector this afternoon.

dry overnight and through tomorrow for most locations, with low-end
rain shower chances across southern michigan as a weak shortwave
clips the region. attention will then turn to a second low pressure
system which will develop on the lee of the central rockies thursday
morning before steering into lake huron and northern lower michigan
by friday, occluding over the great lakes. projected path of this
low will keep se mi within the warm sector, bringing renewed chances
for rain showers through the morning. cyclonic flow will wrap cold
air from the plains around the southern quadrant of this system,
which pending timing of this caa, could bring decreasing
temperatures through the afternoon, along with windy conditions as
stronger mixing depths interact with the llj aloft, bringing the
chance to see gusts 35-40 mph. additionally, wrap around moisture
with the cooler temperatures will bring some chances for snow
showers by the afternoon or evening.

colder temperatures take hold to start the early week period along
with some chances for snow showers derived from lake enhancement
under the greater trough structure.

marine...

a marine dense fog advisory remains in effect until later this
morning for southern lake huron and lake st. clair, in the absence
of meaningful drying mechanisms. winds mainly persist out of the
east with an approaching low pressure system, although the southern
waterways could flip southwesterly given other surface pressure
adjustments. an energetic low-level jet (+45 knots at 925 mb) is
moving overhead as the mature system tracks northeastward across
minnesota. this supports gusts to gales over the northern half of
the huron basin today. a gale warning remains in place until late
this afternoon, before the low-level jet axis lifts into the
northern great lakes. this system will also produce periods of
rainfall, possibly mixed with snow over the northern waterways.
can`t completely rule out a rumble of thunder further south. a brief
lull in dynamics ensues thursday, favoring headline-free conditions.
another period of elevated winds arrives friday with the next low
pressure system. potential continues to increase for an additional
round of gusts to gales across northern lake huron friday morning.

hydrology...

widespread rain this morning, the heaviest which will fall across
the tri-cities and thumb. rain to abruptly end by the late
morning to early afternoon, with rainfall totals ranging between a
half-inch up to below 1" north of i-69. for locations south,
rainfall totals hold to a half-inch or less, with amounts of a
quarter- inch or less closer to the mi/oh border. the rain will
occur on top of a melting snowpack that had a snow water
equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". the combination of
rain and snow melt on frozen ground may lead to rises on area
streams and rivers. ponding of water on roads is also possible,
especially where drains could be blocked by snow and/or winter
debris.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......cb
aviation.....bt
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


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