Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
927
fxus61 kcle 210725
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
315 am edt sat mar 21 2026

.what has changed...
on sunday, the slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
has shifted just south of our region, but a marginal risk (level
1 of 5) remains in most of our forecast area, especially roughly
along and south of u.s. route 30.

&&

.key messages...
1.) primarily above-normal temperatures are expected through sunday.
a few severe thunderstorms are possible on sunday, especially
roughly along and south of u.s. route 30.

2.) variable temperatures and periods of precipitation are
expected sunday night through saturday, march 28th.

&&

.discussion...

key message 1...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through sunday. at the surface, a
high pressure ridge exits e`ward from our region through tonight
as a low wobbles ese`ward from the north-central united states
to southern on. widespread stratus and areas of fog related to
stratus intersecting higher terrain and/or stratus expanding
downward courtesy of sufficient nocturnal cooling in a fairly
moist sub-cloud layer early this morning are expected to
dissipate by late this morning, following the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer. a surface warm front
is still expected to sweep generally n`ward through our cwa late
this afternoon through tonight in response to the aforementioned
evolution of the surface low. despite moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front, a fairly dry low-level
atmospheric column in the cool sector should permit a dry front
passage. high temperatures late this afternoon should reach
mainly the 50f to 60f range in nw pa and the lower 50`s to upper
60`s in northern oh. the coolest highs are expected over and
within a few miles of lake erie due to late morning through
early evening lake breeze development. lows should reach the
40`s in nw pa and the mid 40`s to mid 50`s in northern oh this
evening before readings moderate during the predawn hours of
sunday morning as low- level waa strengthens ahead of and
especially behind the warm front in response to slight deepening
of the aforementioned surface low.

on sunday, the surface low should wobble e`ward toward new
england and vicinity, and allow the trailing surface cold front
to sweep se`ward through our region during the mid-morning through
afternoon hours. this earlier trend in forecast timing of the cold
front passage is likely why spc shifted the slight risk of severe
storms just south of our cwa. peeks of sunshine and daytime heating,
low-level waa, and appreciable low-level moisture advection from the
gulf should allow highs to reach mainly the 60`s to 70`s ahead of
the front. the same processes should allow weak to borderline
moderate boundary layer cape and steep low-level lapse
rates/moderate dcape to materialize in the warm sector, especially
roughly along and south of u.s. route 30, where residence time in
the warm sector should be greater. low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the cold front and any downshear outflow boundaries are
expected to trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
along and ahead of the surface front. moderate to strong effective
bulk shear will allow storms to be organized. the thermodynamic and
kinematic environment in the warm sector may allow a few storms to
become severe with damaging straight-line wind gusts. for several
hours following the surface cold front passage, moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the cold front should release weak
to borderline moderate and elevated cape amidst continued moderate
to strong effective bulk shear, which should result in the
development of isolated to scattered, organized, and elevated
showers and thunderstorms. damaging hail is a concern with surface-
based storms along and ahead of the surface cold front, and elevated
storms along the upper-reaches of the cold front due to steep mid-
level lapse rates associated with an eml, which should contribute to
large mucape in the hail growth zone.

key message 2...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and a stronger embedded
shortwave trough will impact our region sunday night as a post-
front surface trough lingers over our cwa. additional periods
of rain are expected via moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the cold front and ahead of the shortwave
trough axis. caa at the surface and aloft, and the wet-bulb
effect, may allow rain to mix with or change to wet snow before
widespread precip ends by daybreak. any snow accumulations are
expected to be less than a half inch. lows should reach the
upper 20`s to mid 30`s around daybreak monday.

current odds favor mainly dry weather in our cwa this monday
through tuesday as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from
the north-central united states and vicinity, and eventually
crests e`ward across our region. continued caa at the surface
and aloft should be accompanied by late afternoon highs in the
mid 30`s to mid 40`s on monday. overnight lows should reach the
lower 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak tuesday. however, a
sufficiently-cold/moist nnw`erly to nw`erly mean low-level flow
over/downwind of ~3c lake erie may trigger isolated lake-effect
snow showers on monday through monday evening. this snow may
mix with rain during the late morning through early evening
hours. any additional snow accumulations should be less than a
half inch. the development of waa at the surface and aloft along
the western flank of the ridge and a n`ward warm front passage
should allow late afternoon highs to reach the mid 40`s to mid
50`s on tuesday.

cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances should affect our region tuesday night through
the day on friday. at the surface, the polar front should waver
in a generally north-south manner in/near our cwa as the mid-
latitude cyclone track impacts the great lakes and vicinity.
periods of rain are expected and should mix with or change to
wet snow at times, especially during the nighttime through
morning hours. near or slightly below-normal overnight lows are
expected. daytime highs should also be mainly near or slightly
below-normal as our region should mainly reside in the cold
sector. however, our entire region should reside in the warm
sector on thursday, which should contribute to above-normal
highs in the 50`s to 60`s.

current odds favor dry weather this upcoming friday night
through saturday, when another ridge at the surface and aloft
should build from the west. net caa at the surface and aloft
should be accompanied by lows in the lower 20`s to lower 30`s
around daybreak saturday followed by afternoon highs in the 40`s
to near 50f.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
in the wake of the cold front that came through earlier this
evening, low stratus is developing and some mist/fog as well.
this will be the story for the remainder of the overnight period
and into the first part of the day saturday as mixing of the
boundary layer and erosion of the inversion will be slow to take
place and may not occur until after 18z in some locations.
ifr/lifr will become vfr fairly quickly when the transition does
occur however. easterly winds become southwesterly, and llws
returns with low level winds increasing ahead of the next cold
front that will affect the region later this weekend.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain showers and low ceilings on
sunday with another cold front.

&&

.marine...
easterly winds under 10kts today become southwesterly tonight
around 10-20kts after a warm front passes across lake erie and ahead
of a sunday cold front. nearshore waves under 2ft, slightly higher
in the open water zones on sunday in the southwesterlies. winds
become northerly 15-25kts behind the cold front late sunday into
sunday night and wave heights increasing to 4-6ft for the western
and central basins of the lake. these winds ease gradually through
monday and monday night as wave heights decrease as well through
this time frame. offshore winds return for midweek 10-15kts.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
584
fxus63 kiwx 210632
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
232 am edt sat mar 21 2026

.key messages...

- above to much above normal temperatures into early sunday,
before cooler (but still somewhat above normal) temperatures
arrive for early next week.

- a dry pattern overall with chances (20-50%) for showers and
isolated storms on sunday, and then again toward the end of
next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 am edt sat mar 21 2026

despite the cold start this morning (mid 30s to mid 40s),
temperatures are expected to rebound into this afternoon as the
cool n and ne flow quickly shifts to more southerly and waa
commences. by late afternoon, the area will be in the 60s ne to
at least the mid 70s sw, with the potential for one more day
of overachieving highs with some potential for a stray 80 degree
being recorded. will defer any further temp increases to the day
shift to see how fast the waa gets going.

some changes in the forecast wrt temps, precip and thunder
chances late tonight into sunday as trends suggest a somewhat
faster arrival to the northern stream trough and associated cold
front. highs sunday are likely to occur near/shortly after 12z
for the nw quarter to maybe third of the area with the front
progressing southeast through the day. capping ahead of the
front will likely limit/prevent convection from forming ahead of
the front until maybe the us-24 corridor when some isolated
showers and storms could occur in the 18-21z time frame. a band
of showers then occurs post frontal to bring maybe a tenth or 2
of rainfall to some areas. given all these factors, the threat
for severe weather in the se appears to have lowered even
further with the new swody2 outlook trimming the nw extent of
the marginal risk. pops have been capped at no more than upper
chc for the time being, but some likely pops may be warranted
post frontal based on some hints in a few of the models.

a nw flow will dominate the start of the work week with highs
near or below normal (coldest near lake mi) before some
moderation back somewhat above normal into mid week. a strong
upper level ridge will expand across the southern us, resulting
in any gulf moisture being cut off to a series of weak
disturbances passing to our north. yet another cold front
arrives thursday/friday sending temps back down once again.


&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 121 am edt sat mar 21 2026

high pressure passes by to the north of the area into the morning
pointing to east winds at the surface and dry air. this gives way to
a low pressure system reaching the northern great lakes by the end
of the taf period, which allows south/southwest winds to take over
for the latter half of the day. within this scenario, expect vfr to
be predominant. however, those east winds do have a chance to bring
some lake erie air in here and could cause some vis reductions this
morning as we`re also seeing with below 10 mi vis in nw oh. also,
expect a low level jet to slide by to the northeast allowing 10 kt
sustained winds this afternoon and gusts to around 20 kts. this may
be enough to just retain sustained into the 10s of kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen/roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
264
fxus63 kdtx 211027
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
627 am edt sat mar 21 2026

.key messages...

- despite some filtered sun today, max temps likely hold in the 50s
across most locations.

- strong cold front moving through sunday brings a good chance of
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm near the ohio border.

- a significant cool down follows the front with below normal
temperatures for monday.

&&

.aviation...

shallow cold within easterly surface winds is supporting a low end
mvfr and ifr stratus deck across se mi. the stratus has made some
gradual expansion toward the west during the night resulting from
ideal ducting under a deep low level inversion. weak high pressure
overhead will depart to the east during the day, allowing low level
winds to veer toward the south by early afternoon. the corresponding
warm air advection will erode the low level inversion and allow a
rapid clearing of the low stratus deck, leaving just mid/high clouds
through the rest of the day. strengthening west-southwest winds atop
a shallow nighttime stable layer overnight will result in a chance
for a period of low level wind shear. this may need to be added to
the tafs in later forecast updates.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 am edt sat mar 21 2026

discussion...

it was a sneaky warm day yesterday, as highs ranged from around 50
degrees over the northern thumb region to mid 70s along and south of
i-94. clouds dissipated for an extended period, and the 12z dtx
sounding did indicate the potential to exceed 70 degrees. another
tight north-to-south temp gradient is expected on sunday, but there
is growing model consensus with the frontal boundary slipping south
of the border by noon sunday; thus, probably only looking at a 20-
degree temp gradient vs. a potential 30+ degrees.

strengthening warm advection pattern today as low pressure slides
into the western great lakes. 850 mb temps are forecasted to rise
into the lower teens early this evening. however, surface winds look
to remain slightly back out of the south-southeast, allowing the
cool waters of lake erie/st. clair to come into play and keep most
of southeast michigan stuck in the 50s for highs. however, areas
west of u.s. 23 will have a shot to punch into the 60s late in the
day, though confidence remains low.

sunday: deterministic ecmwf and its ensemble members (eps) continue
to highlight a potent cold front slowly sagging south through the
great lakes. the primary challenge remains the exact timing of the
fropa (frontal passage) and the resulting high-temperature spread. a
robust thermal gradient will be in place; current guidance suggests
925/850 mb temperatures of 16+c ahead of the boundary, allowing
southern zones (closer to the ohio border) to potentially flirt with
the 60s if the slower frontal timing materializes. conversely,
locations north of i-69 will likely remain capped in the 40s, as
northerly winds off the cool waters of lake huron increase.

precipitation-wise, showers are likely to develop along the
boundary. the eps mean suggests modest instability (a few hundred
j/kg of cape) will be available in the warm sector, supporting a
slight chance of thunderstorms along the southern michigan border.
as the front fully clears the region sunday evening, a brief
changeover to a rain-snow mix is possible on the back edge as 850 mb
temps crash toward -10c sunday night, though warm ground
temperatures will preclude any meaningful accumulation. low-level
moisture depths look very shallow and may lead to a loss of ice
nuclei, potentially resulting in some drizzle/freezing drizzle rather
than organized snow.

monday: upper-level troughing settles over the great lakes to start
the work week. strong surface high pressure tracking through the
ohio valley will maintain dry but chilly conditions for monday.
highs will struggle to exit the upper 30s to lower 40s under a mix
of sun and lingering stratocumulus, as 850 mb temps hold around
-10c.

by tuesday and wednesday, the euro ensemble suite shows the ridge
axis shifting toward the eastern seaboard, allowing for a transition
to southwesterly return flow. this will facilitate a gradual airmass
modification. expect highs to recover into the upper 40s-lower 50s
by wednesday. while a weak mid-level shortwave may ripple through
the zonal flow late wednesday, moisture return looks meager at this
stage, keeping the forecast predominantly dry.

marine...

a ridge of high pressure passing overhead this morning gradually
gives way to the next clipper that reaches western lake superior
this afternoon. this system brings a chance of rain and snow across
northern lake huron today into tonight while wind increases out of
the southeast at around 15 kt. the low crosses lake huron overnight,
then drags a strong cold front south across the rest of the region
on sunday with additional rain showers and potentially a
thunderstorm. stronger north to northeast wind develops in its wake,
reaching 20 to 25 kt late sunday into sunday night. highest
confidence in gusts to around 30 kt will be across saginaw bay due
to the favorable fetch. a building wave field across southern lake
huron will likely necessitate a small craft advisory for the
nearshore. strong high pressure builds in behind the front on
monday, then the next cold front is expected by late tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...sf
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.