Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
404 am edt sat may 2 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a roller coaster of temperatures is expected throughout the next
week as an active pattern persists.

2) a robust system is expected to impact the area mid-week, bringing
widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms across the
area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
well below average temperatures will stick around through tonight as
high pressure builds over the area. highs today are expected to only
climb into the upper 40s to low 50s before temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to low 30s tonight. this will be the coldest night in
a while and will pose significant risk to vulnerable vegetation.
will continue to monitor the trend in cloud coverage, but general
thinking at this point is that the entire area will need either a
frost or freeze headline.

on sunday, a brief reprieve from the cold will commence as a weak
warm front lifts north late, allowing for a waa to become
established and temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s.
the warmest day will be on monday as temperatures climb into the 70s
for much of the area, but as a strong cold front pushes east late
monday/early tuesday, cooler temperatures will begin to return with
highs only in the 60s on tuesday. overnight lows will remain fairly
mild as temperatures only drop into the upper 40s to 50s.

unfortunately, by wednesday below average temperatures return with
highs in the mid 50s and overnight lows once again falling into the
30s. confidence on the exact temperatures this far out is low, but
depending on cloud coverage, there is a potential that some areas
once again see a frost potential thursday night. by next weekend,
some models are hinting at a return to near normal temperatures, so
will have to keep an eye on that potential.

key message 2...

as high pressure slowly departs to the east towards the beginning of
next week, a robust upper level trough will begin to dig south
across the western u.s. on the leading edge of this trough, multiple
shortwave are expected to move along it providing support for
surface boundaries. the initial push of precipitation is expected to
begin monday night as moist airmass advects northeast across the
area. given the overall timing, not expecting any severe weather,
but cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder and localized heavy
rainfall. on tuesday, an associated cold front is expected to push
east in conjunction with a llj of 30-40 knots nudging northeast.
overall instability looks to remain fairly minimal given early
morning convection, but given overall synoptic and mesoscale
support, expect some rumbles of thunder throughout tuesday
afternoon. could see some isolated gusty winds based on the current
forecast, but will keep an eye on things as they evolve in the
coming days.

the aforementioned deepening trough will continue to impact the area
throughout the week as multiple surface boundaries and shortwave
troughs provide support for additional showers and thunderstorms.
exact timing of the actual trough axis pushing east remains
uncertain given the timing spread amongst models, but expect the
strongest cold front to be associated with that trough axis sometime
between thursday and friday. this push east will also mark the start
of the next period of below normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
mixed-bag of vfr and mvfr across the taf sites early this
morning, mainly associated with lower ceilings. the highest
confidence for non-vfr conditions will be at mfd/cle/cak/yng
where an area of showers and low ceilings will gradually pivot
south through the morning. some snow may mix in with the rain
at times early this morning which could result in mvfr vsbys at
times in addition to ifr ceilings. ceilings are expected to
scatter to vfr by the afternoon areawide.

winds are light and variable early this morning, less than 5
knots. winds will gradually favor a north to northwest direction
later this morning and afternoon, 8 to 10 knots. winds will
become light and variable again later this evening.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms late monday through wednesday as a cold front
moves southeast across the area.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet marine conditions are expected for the first
half of the weekend with winds less than 10 knots. southwest
winds will increase in the 15 to 20 knot range ahead of a cold
front late sunday through monday. a small craft advisory could
be needed if winds trend stronger. otherwise, winds will shift
towards the north behind a cold front late tuesday into
wednesday, 10 to 15 knots. a brief small craft advisory may be
needed across the central basin of lake erie with the onshore
flow resulting in waves near 4 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz003-006>008-
012>014-017>019-022-023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for paz001.
freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
518 am edt sat may 2 2026

.key messages...

- remaining chilly today into tonight with areas of frost possible
again early sunday morning.

- milder and becoming breezy on sunday with a slight chance (20%)
for a few rain showers.

- warm and breezy on monday with chances (40-50%) for showers
and storms increasing late in the day on monday into monday
night. a few storms could become strong to severe.

- cooler temperatures return beyond monday with periods of rain
(50-80%) tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 303 am edt sat may 2 2026

mid level height rises and subsidence will allow low level ridging
to hold with tranquil, yet still unseasonably cool, weather to
linger into today and tonight. no changes to headlines early this
morning regarding frost/freeze conditions, with additional headlines
potentially needed tonight across mainly ne in/sw mi/nw oh where
warm advection clouds and developing southwest flow is more delayed.

sunday will feature an increasingly breezy and mild look as low
level southwest flow ramps up under flattened flow aloft. this warm
advection regime in conjunction with a low amplitude impulse
dropping into the lower great lakes may allow widely scattered
showers to clip areas mainly north of us 30 on sunday, though
lacking deep moisture/lift precludes anything greater than a 20%
pop. the leading edge of better low level moisture return in the
vicinity of a developing weak warm front should focus convection off
to the south-southwest by sunday night and monday morning with
dry/milder wx anticipated locally during this time.

the general outlook of a more active/wet pattern remains in play
monday afternoon through midweek as a northern stream upper level
trough digs southeast into the region, merging in some fashion with
another trough ejecting east from just off the southern ca coast.
moisture advection in deepening southwest flow will provide periodic
rain/storm chances within an associated southeastward sinking
frontal zone during these periods, highest (50-70%) monday night
through tuesday night. still some concern for iso-sct strong-severe
convection possibly along the sfc front during the monday pm hours
given the potential for modest instability and 30-40 knots of
effective deep layer shear, though somewhat delayed forcing and
questionable moisture quality remain limiting factors for a more
organized svr wx threat at this time. lowland/river flooding
probably the more substantial threat by tuesday-tuesday night if a
stronger frontal wave develops, though model integrated vapor
transport progs continue to favor areas south-southeast of the local
area for heavier rain and flooding concerns. cooler then in the wake
of the upper trough and frontal zone mid-late week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 518 am edt sat may 2 2026

vfr conditions and northwesterly winds generally less than 10
knots expected through the taf cycle with weak low level
ridging firmly in control.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...freeze warning until 9 am edt /8 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-014-017-018-024>027-103-104-116-203-204-216.
frost advisory until 9 am edt /8 am cdt/ this morning for
inz012-013-015-020-022-023-032>034.
oh...freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for ohz001-004-015-
024.
frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz002-005-016-
025.
mi...freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
347 am edt sat may 2 2026

.key messages...

- a freeze warning will expire at 9 am today.

- mainly dry and cool today, with an isolated afternoon shower or two
possible and highs in the 50s.

- breezier with moderating temperatures and some scattered showers
sunday.

- abnormally warm monday with chances for showers and some embedded
thunderstorms, more so late monday into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...

a stalled upper low parked along the ontario/quebec border unlocks
today leading to a gradual shift toward anticyclonically
curved/subsident flow. drier low-level air is actively working in
from the northwest, helping to scour out the residual stratocumulus
deck. however, the delay in clearing has resulted in nocturnal
cooling lagging forecasted values. as for the freeze warning, the
coverage and duration of sub-32f conditions have trended lower. the
highest confidence in meeting criteria exists with northwestward
extent, where clear skies emerge the earliest. timing out the
clearing line of the trailing 8 kft layer suggests clouds may still
be over downtown detroit after 12z. for consistency, and to account
for localized effects, the headline will remain in-place until 13z
for all of southeast michigan, but the tri-county area (oakland,
wayne, macomb) and those along the michigan/ohio border should
expect morning temperatures to predominantly minimize in the mid 30s.

once the region fully clears out later this morning, diurnal clouds
eventually fill in during the afternoon hours as the boundary layer
matures. forecast soundings show similarly deep mixing potential
(compared to yesterday), but the saturation/cloud-bearing layer
appears shallower (less than 3 kft), marked by pwats dropping below
a third of an inch. paired with dry air aloft, expect a mostly dry
day, even as the next lobe of mid-level cva moves through. could
still see a few isolated showers try to develop on radar, but
returns should largely reflect the sampling of virga. at the
surface, diffuse high pressure spills across southern lower with
weak northwesterly gradient flow. in spite of the seasonably chilly
start and 700 mb temperatures in the minus teens (celsius), daytime
highs should recover into the lower 50s, aided by rising may sun
angle.

local height rises struggle to become well-established on sunday as
perturbed flow, downstream of several inbound central canadian
shortwave impulses, shears out the passing ridge axis. standard
deepening trough cadence then unfolds with the initial geopotential
height reduction emerging within the lower portion of the
troposphere. this backs winds southwesterly, drawing milder air into
the great lakes within an elevated warm sector. once the surface
warm front lifts in, gradient winds strengthen as the forecast area
gets wedged between broad surface high pressure over the southeast
and a comparatively weaker surface trough traversing the northern
lakes. low-level jet winds of 35-45 knots move in sunday afternoon,
and with surface warming outpacing thermal moderation aloft, neutral
to weakly unstable profiles should allow for occasional gusts of 30-
40 mph during the afternoon hours. additionally, expect some showers
to develop as moisture transport increases during the afternoon and
evening hours given increasing confluence within the lower levels.
rainy conditions could persist through part of the overnight period.

longer wavelength troughing from western canada phases with the
retrograding resident upper low and digs into the upper midwest
monday and tuesday. the composite wave positioned within the polar
jet leads to an increasing tendency for ascent as warm advection
builds monday (highs +70f), but the forecast jet streak path does
not favor strong overlap for upper-level divergence. instability
struggles to lift in from the ohio valley with dewpoints still below
50f by sunset monday. warm sector showers/thunderstorm potential
appears low given formidable capping and dry layering, thus the
better chance for more widespread qpf will be associated with the
system`s cold frontal passage monday night into tuesday. the wave
occludes as it approaches james bay (near 985 mb) while the
secondary low/front drives michigan showers with embedded thunder.
steep mid-level cooling/lapse rates reflect deterministic 02.00z
nam/gfs solutions with 1500+ j/kg of mucape, but 200+ j/kg of cin
exist below the elevated instability. should any storms develop
above the capping inversion, a nocturnal large hail threat would be
the main concern. unsettled conditions linger mid-week as the
boundary slows to a crawl and temperatures steadily cool down below
climatological normals.

&&

.marine...

a large and slow moving upper level low will exit the region today
as a broad area of high pressure enters through the day. this
combination will lead to a fairly quiet stretch of marine weather
with mainly clouds and light winds (gusts under 15 knots) through
tonight with an opportunity for a light shower mainly in the
afternoon hours. north to northwest flow backs to the southwest
tomorrow and holds through early next week as a warm front passes
through the great lakes. gusts tomorrow could reach 25 knots on
behind the front in some of the nearshore zones, particularly
through the saginaw bay. there will be additional chances for rain
showers and a low chance for an embedded thunderstorm early next
week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1155 pm edt fri may 1 2026

aviation...

variable winds have developed across the airspace tonight in
response to the inland expansion of the marine layer, with many
sites reporting east-northeast winds. low vfr deck remains in place
currently, but erodes overnight as upstream dry air fills in. high
pressure expands into the ohio valley saturday, affording a period
of clearing in the morning before diurnal cu redevelops. light
northwest winds back to the southwest saturday evening as the high
weakens and drifts east.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight and late saturday
morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......drk/am
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.