Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
454
fxus61 kcle 030648
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
248 am edt fri apr 3 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast. continuing to monitor the
severe weather threat for this afternoon/evening and saturday
evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) a warm front will lift north through this afternoon bringing
showers and thunderstorms to the region with a severe weather risk
mainly for areas south of i-80.

2) another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected saturday
evening as a cold front sweeps across the region with another chance
for severe weather for areas southeast of the i-71 corridor.

3) much cooler weather expected starting sunday through the middle
of the week with a few periods of precipitation expected.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

a warm front will lift across the region this afternoon resulting in
temperatures rising up into the mid to upper 70s and dew points
climbing along with it into the low 60s. a weak frontal boundary
will enter in from the northwest and stall across the lake shore
this evening. this will generally serve as the boundary where much
of the precipitation and severe weather potential will occur to the
south. it`s difficult to map out where this feature will stall out,
though the recent trends have it further south towards the i-80
corridor. around the boundary and to the north won`t be completely
dry as there will be a chance for a shower or two creating damp
conditions. on the note of severe weather, with the increased
temperatures and dew points, there will be mucape values around 1500
j/kg from the i-80 corridor southward. low level lapse rates will be
decent, around 6.5-7 c/km, creating a threat for damaging winds and
large hail. in addition to the severe weather threat, there will be
a marginal risk for heavy rain across the region. this will be more
concentrated in the areas with training thunderstorms and in areas
that are already saturated from the past few days. the severe/heavy
rain threat should wane into the evening as the better forcing moves
to the north with the frontal boundary lifting.


key message #2:

another chance for severe weather comes on saturday as the frontal
boundary lifts north friday night as a warm front and temperatures
stay elevated. temperatures will be warmer on saturday with highs up
into the mid to upper 70s with a few places touching 80 and dew
points again being in the low 60s across the region. there will be
plenty of instability with the warm temperatures and increased dew
points. low level lapse rates again will be around 7 c/km with 0-6
km shears values around 30-40 knots. this will support a damaging
wind threat with large hail as a secondary threat. an isolated
tornado can`t be rules out either along the cold front as low level
flow increases out of the southwest. the area with the higher
potential for severe weather will be around and southeast of the i-
71 corridor. this is outlined in the new day 2 severe weather
outlook with a slight risk now introduced. locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with a minor flood risk. thunderstorms will be
ongoing ahead of the front with the front itself moving in from the
west around 5-7pm and will exit to the east after midnight.


key message #3:

behind the cold front saturday night, a much cooler air mass will
move in as an upper level trough remains in place over eastern
canada. high temperatures on sunday will be in the mid to upper 40s,
around 30 degrees below what they were on saturday. there will be
potential for scattered lake effect showers to saturday and sunday
with the northwesterly flow across lake erie. surface high pressure
will build in briefly to the south of the region with dry weather
generally expected into monday. a shortwave will move through the
region late monday night into tuesday that will bring a low chance
of precipitation with possible rain/wet snow mix as temperatures
drop just below freezing. temperatures to start next week will be
below average with highs int the 40s and overnight lows in the upper
20s to low 30s. there will be a rebound in temperatures mid week as
the upper level trough moves off to the east and high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
all terminals are vfr with broken mid level clouds of 6-12k
feet at 06z. the main focus today will be timing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. scattered showers extend from near
cle to mfd to mnn at 06z and will tend to weaken as they shift
northeast through 10z. another area of showers and
thunderstorms is located from central lower michigan to
northwest indiana and may hold together to reach tol/fdy prior
to 11z with decreasing intensity and coverage farther east
through 13z. these showers are likely to diminish this morning,
then re-develop this afternoon after 20z as a frontal boundary
settles south into the area. showers and thunderstorms may move
west to east along this front late this afternoon into early
evening, before the front lifts back north. there is uncertainty
in placement of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but
seem most likely at mfd/cak, with confidence for thunderstorms
the highest at fdy/tol in the 01-06z time frame. thunderstorms
this evening could be heavy at times with ifr visibilities.

a low level jet with 50 knots near 2500 feet is moving overhead
and most terminals are gusting to 20-30 knots. if gusts drop off
for any appreciable amount of time will need to add low level
wind sheer to the taf. breezy southwest winds will continue
today, with winds veering to the northwest and eventually
northeast for locations that end up north of the frontal
boundary.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms friday afternoon into friday night. non-vfr more
likely on saturday in showers and thunderstorms along a cold
front. low ceilings may linger through sunday. non- vfr may
return on monday in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.marine...
elevated south to southwest winds of near 20 knots will return
across the lake tonight, though given the overnight timing and
the brief period of the stronger winds, opted against a small
craft advisory at this time. winds will briefly shift towards
the west on friday, 10 to 15 knots, as a warm front settles just
south of the lake. the next concern for hazardous marine
conditions will be on sunday as a cold front ushers in west
winds of 20 knots across lake erie. a small craft advisory will
likely be needed. west winds will persist across lake erie on
monday, though diminishing slightly into the 10 to 15 knots
range. stronger west to northwest winds of around 20 knots may
arrive monday night into tuesday.

showers and thunderstorms are also likely saturday afternoon
and evening across lake erie ahead of a cold front which could
pose a strong wind threat.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...10
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 030547
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
147 am edt fri apr 3 2026

.key messages...

- isolated strong to severe storms are possible tonight, and
then again friday afternoon and evening. the main threats
will be damaging winds, heavy rain, and localized flooding.

- flooding concerns persist through the weekend with additional
rounds of rain and storms friday into saturday.

- mild with highs in the 70s through saturday. cooler, in the
40s, to begin the new week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1253 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

a surface low over eastern kansas continues to be our focus for a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon. critically,
a warm front is gradually lifting into the southern portions of our
forecast area as dew points rise into the mid-50s. south of this
warm front, stratus is clearing as well. guidance is generally
handling this moisture advection well, which bolsters confidence in
the guidance. the source region for storms later today, west-central
illinois, remains socked in beneath clouds for the time being. yet,
href members and hourly cams remain in fair agreement that
conditions will improve, the stratus and cap will break, resulting
in a broken line of thunderstorms over northwest in near 5pm edt.

in general, ingredients remain disjointed with departing 500mb and
850 mb jets placing our area in the right entrance region briefly,
along with waning mucape below 1,000 j/kg which can be enough when
paired with 45-50 knots of bulk shear (seen here). 0-1 km helicity
is supportive for tornadoes, but again, the holistic environment is
disjointed/marginal. damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and heavy
rainfall remain the primary concerns from 5pm and 11pm edt. high
confidence in a weakening trend as any storms near the i-69 corridor
due to departing upper-level support and waning instability.
precipitable water values remain high, conducive for downpours, but
area-wide rainfall amounts are forecast to be 0.25-0.50". lastly,
the inherited wind advisory remains on track but limited by existing
cloudiness. upstream, wind gusts are increasing (about 40-42mph in
central il).

active weather persists both friday and saturday. tonight`s cold
front has minimal effect as strong ridging off the outer banks
encourages warm, southerly flow. meanwhile, over the central us,
cyclogenesis is underway bringing another warm front through our
area friday. this favors rain primarily south of us-24 that
gradually lifts north friday. the cold front then sweeps through
saturday. preceding rain in the warm sector and lagging jet dynamics
look to limit any severe weather risk on saturday. however, an
unseasonably moist air mass continues to threaten locally heavy
rainfall resulting in 0.5 to 1" of rain friday night through
saturday.

sharply colder sunday and monday with highs in the 40s to near 50.
this remains the case on tuesday as a secondary surge of cold,
canadian air becomes established via expansive high pressure. a
clipper system precedes this, brining a 20%-30% chance of rain or
snow showers monday night across michigan. look for warmer
conditions wednesday and beyond.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 135 am edt fri apr 3 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions for the terminals tonight
into friday, with periods of ifr/lifr ceilings/vis possible in
any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms. a cold front will
move through tonight, with winds shifting to the west-northwest
through tonight. at ksbn, winds eventually shift to the n-ne,
and at kfwa will be somewhat more variable by fri afternoon as a
warm front approaches from the south and lingers near kfwa until
fri evening. s-sw wind gusts up to around 30-35 knots are
possible outside the cold front, then w-sw gusts up to 45 knots
are possible within any heavier showers/t-storms. ksbn will see
shower/t-storm activity through around 8-9z, then kfwa between
8-12z. michigan city, in gusted to around 48kts with the
t-storm that just moved through, so have up to around 45 knots
in both tafs for now. it`s possible storms weaken as they go
eastward to kfwa giving waning instability. otherwise, behind
the front a period of mvfr ceilings persists through the
afternoon. there may be a period of vfr ceilings before the warm
front approaches from the south and brings them back into mvfr
range (along with t-storm activity). have kfwa seeing storms
around 21z and later, then ksbn around 2-6z. winds by late
evening will be out of the east (e-ne at ksbn/e-se at kfwa).


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 030406
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1206 am edt fri apr 3 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight. scattered storms
may be strong with wind gusts to 50 mph and localized heavy
rainfall the main threats.

- additional showers and thunderstorms are likely friday night and
saturday. some storms may be strong and produce heavy rainfall.

- mild conditions friday and saturday, then trending cooler again
sunday into early next week.

&&

.aviation...

first round of storms is passing east as of 04z with some lingering
showers. one more round of showers and storms will come around 06-
09z again from west to east. these storms are supposed to undergo a
weakening trend as they pass through western lower, but may still
offer wind gusts to 30-40 knots. strong low level jet around 50
knots down to 2kft still present, but will not include llws in tafs
as gusts at the surface will also be strong up to around 30 knots.
quieter weather then moves in by morning with post frontal westerly
flow turning northwest through the day. mvfr stratus will fill in
behind the front for a few hours before better mixing friday helps
scour out the clouds.

for dtw... a second line of storms has developed upstream over
western lower which will push east through the next few hours,
reaching the area around 07-09z. low chance for storms to reach
severe limits but could see a gust to 40 knots if storms can hold
their strength. cold front then pushes through and brings quieter
weather.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft late tonight and friday
morning. low friday afternoon and moderate again friday night.

* moderate for thunderstorms around 07-09z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 410 pm edt thu apr 2 2026

discussion...

low pressure over ia tracks northeast into the straits tonight and
its surface warm front is currently positioned from near new buffalo
along the state line to between toledo and findlay. persistent
easterly component of low-level flow holds the stable marine layer
over much se mi into the evening and delays the arrival of surface
based instability, holding a dry forecast for the next few hours.
meanwhile strengthening southwest gradient wind will cause the warm
front to make farther northward progress across western and central
lower mi, resulting in an instability gradient oriented nw to se
across central lower mi through this evening. the upper shortwave
driving the surface low has a negative tilt with strong upper jet
divergence aiding in convective development along a pre-frontal
trough over southern il. this convection is forecast to track
northeast across lower mi through this evening, with initial
multicell storms favored to congeal into a linear mode with current
trends tracking it through se mi between 8pm and midnight.

buoyancy will be the limiting factor for severe weather tonight as
the resident stability will be slow to dislodge, and there is
expected to be a general weakening trend as convection arrives.
however, there remains a threat for damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph given the powerful kinematic background. the inbound llj in the
warm sector will be characterized by 65 kt flow at 850mb and 50 to
60 kt down to 925mb or roughly 2 kft agl. if storms arriving from
the west can stay rooted in the surface layer, descending parcels
will be capable of dragging the higher momentum to the surface.
highest confidence for this to occur is west of us-23 with
decreasing probability with eastward extent given increasing
stability. a higher moisture environment with pwat rising to near
1.40" brings potential for localized heavy downpours as well. storm
motion at nearly 60 kt will keep this activity transient and
mitigate flooding concerns for most areas, but some locales around
the saginaw valley may see repeated storms and with antecedent wet
conditions this additional rainfall may cause localized minor
flooding tonight. low probability for an embedded brief tornado also
exists near the warm front/cape gradient where srh will be maximized
as convection moves in. this is particularly true if any segments
deviate to the right of the prevailing nne storm motion.

as the warm sector passes through overnight, neutral thermal
profiles allow for gusts of 30 to 40 mph at times before the llj
moves out. the cold front passes through friday morning with little
ascent left as the parent system quickly tracks into western quebec.
some lighter showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be
possible, then clearing skies and weakening wind results in a
pleasant friday afternoon with temps in the 70s south and 50s north.

the next system takes a very similar track from the midwest/mid
mississippi valley into the northern great lakes on saturday. the
warm front will be positioned south of the stateline late friday
before being forced northward friday night. brief residence of the
warm sector follows early saturday before the cold front sweeps
through later in the day. instability will again be a limiting
factor for stronger convection, and the current swody3 outlines se
mi in the general thunder category. localized heavy rainfall will be
a possibility and wpc shows all of se mi in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

a cooler pattern commences sunday into the early part of next week
as longwave troughing sets up over the great lakes. a clipper tracks
through on monday bringing a chance of rain and snow showers, but
otherwise drier conditions will prevail during this period. another
frontal system in the great lakes vicinity brings increasing
potential for another active period during the late week.

marine...

a modest gradient exists over the central great lakes today,
positioned between approaching low pressure from the plains and
stalled high pressure over quebec. a warm front associated with the
low has been slow to lift into the southern waterways, keeping
mixing depths very shallow this afternoon. still, a period of on-
shore flow brings elevated waves to saginaw bay and the southern
lake huron shoreline, where small craft advisories remain in effect.
gusts across portions of northern lake huron will appoach gales this
evening, but the lack of persistence precludes a last minute gale
warning. the warm front precedes the track of the low tonight,
toward the straits, with winds veering ssw with time, from south to
north. the system`s low-level jet, featuring 60 knot flow below 3
kft, will struggle to mix down given low level stability, therefore
no additional gale headlines were issued. some strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms will affect some waterways tonight, with the
main threat being strong gusty winds in excess of 34 knots.

drier conditions with decreasing winds expected friday, after the
system`s cold front clears through. however, unsettled weather
returns friday night and saturday with a similarly tracking warm
front and surface low. this should bring renewed modest easterly
winds, areas of gusts approaching gales, and additional
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong or marginally severe.

hydrology...

early day showers and thunderstorms brought rainfall amounts ranging
between 0.10 and 0.60" with the higher amounts focused across the
saginaw valley and i-69 corridor. additional showers and storms will
track across the area this evening into tonight. an increasingly
moisture-laden environment will support heavy downpours at times,
but fast storm motion of over 50 mph will limit residence time for
most areas. the exception will be the saginaw valley where some
potential for some training storms exists. additional rainfall
amounts through tonight for this area are forecast to range between
0.30 and 0.80" and localized flash flooding will be possible. areas
farther south are forecast to receive up to 0.30" which will limit
flooding concerns.

another period of showers and storms is expected friday night into
saturday with additional rainfall amounts forecast to range between
0.50 and 1.00". today`s and saturday`s rainfall will cause rises on
area rivers and bring potential to reach flood stage, with highest
confidence across the saginaw valley. river crests are forecast to
occur this weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441.

small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.