Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
516
fxus61 kcle 151501
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1001 am est thu jan 15 2026

.what has changed...
there are no changes to the ongoing lake effect snow warnings
and advisories at this time. looking ahead for this weekend into
next week, there are no significant changes with the overall
forecast. we are expecting a cold weather outbreak to develop
and linger over the great lakes this weekend through the middle
of next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) heavy lake effect snow will continue today across northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the lake effect snow will
impact travel and cause hazardous road conditions across much
of the snowbelt today into this evening.

3) the weather pattern this weekend into next week will bring a
cold weather outbreak with an arctic airmass moving over the
great lakes region. there will be multiple nights with
temperatures in the single digits to near zero degrees. wind
chill values will be below zero for several days.

2) the very cold weather pattern this weekend into next week
will also bring several weather systems with chances for light
snow and the potential for more accumulating lake effect snow in
the snowbelt.

&&

.update...
have let the western/southwestern winter wx advisories expire at
10 am. all other headlines remain unchanged.

a mix of light synoptic snow and multi-bands of more intense
lake effect snow continues across parts of north central and
northeast oh along with northwest pa. more intense/impactful
lake effect continues as far west as eastern erie county oh,
with a spray of rather intense bands across parts of eastern
erie (oh), lorain, medina, cuyahoga, extreme northern summit,
lake, geauga, extreme northern portage, ashtabula, northern
trumbull, and erie/crawford in pa. peak snow rates within the
heavier bands are around 1" per hour with visibility reductions
to 1/4 of a mile. am expecting little change to band placement
or intensity through early this afternoon, so those seeing
impactful snow will continue to. still am expecting activity to
subside from west to east this afternoon as we lose synoptic
support as ridging builds in from the west. gave the pops and
forecast snow amounts a bit of an update to account for current
trends, with the main change being to increase pops/qpf west of
cleveland through early this afternoon.

considered a warning upgrade for erie and perhaps huron counties
in ohio this morning, based on the limited snow reports we`ve
gotten from there and the observed road conditions earlier this
morning. road conditions have generally improved slightly and we
are past the most intense snow, so an upgrade at this point
would just muddy the message...given that, held off. considered
trimming stark and mahoning out of the advisory, though for now
some light snow is filtering into those counties so will let
things play out a bit longer before making any more changes.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the main key message in the near term forecast is the ongoing
heavy lake effect snow across both the primary and secondary
snowbelt region this morning. on the radar this morning, we are
seeing several organized bands of heavy lake effect snow. there
is a band of heavy lake effect snow and squalls nearly
stationary coming from the western basin of lake erie into the
western and southern areas of the cleveland metro. there is
another distinct band of heavy lake effect snow with a lake
huron connection coming into the area around ashtabula and the
far corner of neoh and nwpa. we are also seeing on radar and
observations an area of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow
from eastern lorain county eastward across much of the
cleveland area into geauga and lake county this morning. this
area of lake enhanced snow is likely from the deep, moist
flow coming off the both lake huron and lake erie and being
helped by the subtle elevation rise of the "heights" on the
souther and eastern side of the cle metro. with that said,
travel will be impacted this morning with varying weather and
road conditions across the snowbelt.

a large and deep upper trough has developed over the eastern
u.s. and the main center of this system is currently over
northeast ohio this morning. this rather strong and nearly
vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly exit eastward
today. we will dealing with the backside of this storm system
for much of today with a deep northwesterly flow coming over
lake huron and lake erie into our area.

the overall trend today will be heavy lake effect snow with
additional accumulations likely. the heaviest snowfall and storm
totals will be in the primary snowbelt, like the higher terrain
around geauga county and inland crawford and erie county pa.
for the latest info additional snowfall for specific locations,
please check the text product of the warnings or the weather
story graphic on our webpage. the highest pops and coverage of
lake effect snow and greatest impacts will be this morning
through midday. by this afternoon and especially this evening,
there will be a gradual decrease in the lake effect and slowly
ending from west to east across the snowbelt of neoh. the lake
effect snow linger for nwpa into this evening before it shuts
down and moves out of the local area. some areas of far neoh and
more so into nwpa may again have travel impacts for the evening
commute. we did not make any changes to the ongoing lake effect
snow warning and advisories. these weather impact alerts are
expected drop off later today into this evening as the lake
effect snow slowly ends from west to east.

gusty northwest winds today will be 25 to 35 mph which will
cause some localized blowing and drifting snow. actual air
temperatures will be in the upper teens and lower 20s for high
temps today. wind chill values this morning near zero and
staying in the single digits later today. high pressure will
build into the ohio valley tonight and shut off the lake effect
snow machine. overnight low temps will drop into the lower
teens.

key message 2...
the next impactful weather concern we have in the forecast will
arrive this weekend and continue into next week. a very cold weather
pattern will develop and linger for multiple day. a large, deep
layer upper level trough will setup and stay in place over the
great lakes region and much of the eastern u.s. this weekend
into next week. there will be several low pressure systems that
will track down out of canada into the great lakes region around
backside and base of this upper level. each of these low
pressure systems will bring down an arctic front to reinforce
the very cold airmass moving over the great lakes region this
weekend into next week. before the coldest weather of this
winter season arrives, there will be a brief moderation of
temperatures friday and saturday with high temps in the 30s. the
first arctic front arrives late saturday. the second arctic
reinforcing cold front will arrive monday. and there maybe a 3rd
cold front by the middle or end of next week. high temperatures
will only be in the teens and 20s sunday through the middle of
next week. more importantly and impactful will be overnight low
temperatures will be in the single digits to near zero for multiple
nights late this weekend through the middle of next week. the
latest forecast model guidance has been trended colder with the
potential for some subzero overnight low temps and high temps
not getting out of the single digits early next week. wind
chill values will be approaching dangerous cold levels -10f to
-20f potentially monday into tuesday.

key message 3...
along with the cold weather outbreak this weekend into next
week will several chances for light snow associated with the
low pressures systems and cold fronts that will move across the
great lakes region. there will also be the potential for
additional lake effect snow and accumulations in the snowbelt
region of neoh and nwpa this weekend into next week. there is
alot of uncertainty on if and how the next setup for lake
effect snow will develop, but there is some indication there
could be additional lake effect snow that develops and persist
for multiple days into early next week. stay tuned and weather
aware!

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
widespread snow showers continue to impact the area this
morning, especially at terminals downwind of lake erie where
heavy lake effect continues to fall. conditions range from vfr
in areas between snow showers to lifr at terminals in the
heaviest bands. generally speaking, conditions should gradually
improve from west to east today as the trough continues to move
east of the area with non-vfr conditions persisting longest at
keri. by the end of the period, all visibilities will rebound to
vfr distances but lingering ceilings between 2-3kft will
maintain mvfr conditions across eastern terminals.

winds today (through 00z friday) will remain out of the
northwest at 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots at times.
isolated stronger gusts up to 30 knots is possible along the
immediate lakeshore, including at keri. these gusty winds will
likely result in blowing snow further acting to reduce
visibilities. tonight winds begin to veer and become
southwesterly at 5-10 knots ahead of the next system. some light
snow showers may creep into the far western terminals at the
tail end of the period, but confidence was too low to include in
the taf.

outlook...non-vfr likely in snow showers on friday and
saturday. non-vfr may linger across ne oh and nw pa on sunday.

&&

.marine...
multiple low pressure systems are expected to impact the region
through next week, resulting in a prolonged period of hazardous
marine conditions across lake erie. with this update, opted to
extend the small craft advisory for the central and eastern basins
through saturday as elevated winds of 20-25 knots will persist.
today, winds from the northwest will result in waves along the
nearshore of 4 to 7 feet with locally higher waves possible. these
winds will become southwesterly by friday morning as high pressure
builds in allowing waves along the nearshore to subside to 1 to 3
feet into saturday.

in addition, the arrival of a much colder airmass has resulted in
areas of freezing spray across the lake as strong winds, near
freezing lake temperatures, and high wave heights. as a result, a
freezing spray warning remains in effect through 2pm this afternoon.
as winds weaken and slightly warmer air moves over the lake on
friday into saturday, the potential for freezing spray will
diminish. by sunday, the arrival of the coldest temperatures this
year and additional gusty winds will likely once again result in
heavy freezing spray and the potential for additional headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
ohz009-019.
lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est this evening for
ohz010>014-020>022-089.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz023-
032-033.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 1 am est friday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez142>144.
heavy freezing spray warning until 2 pm est this afternoon for
lez144>148-164>168.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est saturday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

update...sullivan
discussion...77
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 151031
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
issued by national weather service indianapolis in
531 am est thu jan 15 2026

.key messages...

- continued lake effect snow today, especially this morning into
early afternoon. areas west of us 31 will see the greatest
totals. travel in the winter storm warning areas will be
treacherous, especially beneath the more dominant lake effect
band.

- another system will move through tonight into friday, with
most areas seeing around 1 inch of snowfall. near lake
michigan, totals will be closer to 2-3 inches.

- there area additional chances for snow this weekend into early
next week, with much colder temperatures. highs will be in the
teens and 20s, with lows in the single digits. wind chills in
the overnight and early morning hours will drop into the
single digits above and below zero.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 444 am est thu jan 15 2026

main focus this morning is on the lake effect snow band that
currently extends down the long axis of lake mi into southern
berrien county, mi into st. joseph, marshall, and fulton
counties in in. it`s been dropping southwestward with time, and
is just creeping into northeastern laporte/stark counties.
visibility beneath the band is dropping close to zero
(k65/plymouth, in reporting 1/4sm as of right now and was 1/4sm
at ksbn when it moved through st. joseph, in). opted to cancel
the winter storm warnings and advisories for northern berrien
and cass counties in mi, and elkhart/kosciusko counties in in
as the band has drifted largely out of their area.

models disagree somewhat regarding how far west the band moves
with the hrrr/rap suggesting it reaches laporte/starke and
pulaski counties as we inch towards 12z. other guidance keeps it
slightly further east with less southward extent. based on
current observations of the wind along the
michigan/laporte/porter county shorelines suggesting a
developing convergent axis (with continued lake superior
connection), inversion heights lingering around 6-7kft, and
saturation within the dgz with the focused lift...i`m inclined
to go with the hrrr/rap-like pops/qpf. gradually inversion
heights drop to around 3-4kft with incoming ridge (around 18z)
and moisture begins to dwindle...so after this morning expect
the intensity of the band to taper off before it drifts back
east and dissipates. because of these factors and the present
rates of the band probably around at least 2"/hr...went on the
high side of qpf (kept 20:1 ratios). this brings totals from now
until early afternoon of greater than 8" with stripes of up to
possibly 12" for laporte/starke in depending on how long the
band lingers in one spot. on radar, we can see convective loops
developing within the band...so suspect these totals are
reasonable. pulaski is probably going to stay within advisory
criteria as the inland extension becomes limited after 12z with
the incoming ridge/dry air (mainly 4-6" further north).
depending on how long the band lingers further east in its
current position early this morning...marshall/western st.
joseph/berrien could see at least 6 inches more (greater risk of
higher totals closer to the lake).

in fulton, in as of this writing (rochester) the observations
are light snow with visibility of 2sm, suggesting less intensity
with south/eastward extent as expected. lingering band could
produce another 2-4" before tapering off. if it stays longer
than planned, we could get closer to 4 to 5 inches in parts of
the county. maintained the advisory for now. otherwise, the band
will head back east as it diminishes - adding additional
accumulations to berrien/st. joseph - but the intensity will be
much lower. with the winds this morning, low temperatures are in
the teens to 20s and will feel more like single digits above /
below zero. highs this afternoon in the 20s will feel like the
teens.

a parade of systems and lake effect still expected friday into
next week, with probably around 1-3" (highest near lake mi)
expected from tonight into friday. it will be much colder-
especially early next week. highs will be in the teens and 20s
sat/sun, with lows in the single digits. wind chills in the
overnight and early morning hours will drop into the single
digits above and below zero, with some locations reaching to
around 10 to 15 below zero monday night and tuesday night.

mcd

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1227 am est thu jan 15 2026

dominant lake effect band will shift westward during the next
three hours with a brief return to 1/4sm heavy snow at ksbn. the
band is expected to shift west of the airport by 09z with a
return to vfr conditions. around midday, winds will back again
and there is a chance for some brief light snow/mvfr conditions
but the band will be substantially weaker by then and
confidence in impacts is low. another system arrives at the end
of the period with another round of light snow and at least mvfr
ceilings. for kfwa, expect primarily vfr this period but some
brief high-end mvfr ceilings are possible as lake effect clouds
swing through the area. any snow from the next system will not
arrive at kfwa until just after this forecast window.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm warning until 1 pm est /noon cst/ this afternoon
for inz012-014-103-104-203-204.
winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
inz013-015.
oh...none.
mi...winter storm warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for miz277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 151137
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
637 am est thu jan 15 2026

.key messages...

- cold this morning with wind chills below zero.

- a winter weather advisory remains in effect for huron and sanilac
counties. additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible
through mid-morning.

- lake effect snow showers taper off by mid-day, with clearing
possible this afternoon.

- additional snow accumulations expected friday through this
weekend.

- cold continues through the forecast period, with sub-zero wind
chills expected early next week.

&&

.aviation...

persistent area of low level moisture maintained on the backside of
exiting low pressure will continue to support a broader region of
stratus with associated snow showers this morning. latest
observational trends suggest some variability in both cloud base and
visibility, with occasional ifr still possible thru 14z. increasing
influence from very dry arctic air will support a solid clearing
trend this afternoon and lasting into the evening hours. prevailing
winds today from the northwest with some modest gustiness at times.
vfr cloud arrives early tonight as winds back to southwesterly. next
period of accumulating snow set to arrive during the early morning
hours. high coverage of snow then expected into friday.

for dtw...light snow showers and flurries will persist this morning.
next round of accumulating snow arrives late tonight /07z-09z/.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs aob 5000 feet this morning. low this afternoon and
evening. high again late tonight.

* high for precipitation type of snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 425 am est thu jan 15 2026

discussion...

it is a cold and snowy start to the morning, with sub-zero wind
chills observed across much of se michigan. visibility in many spots
has struggled to come above 2 miles through the night due to a
combination of breezy northwest flow and relentless lake enhanced
snow showers. the mid-level circulation responsible for this
prolonged period of snow showers is well-defined on satellite
imagery, located just north of cleveland at issuance. multiple lake
effect snow bands also visible on caset 0.4 reflectivity this
morning, and for the most part have remained in canada. the
exception is within the winter weather advisory, where the arcing
nature of these bands does look to just clip extreme southeast
huron/eastern sanilac counties to keep the advisory going through 10
am. will see the trough axis finally push through around mid-day to
fully bring an end to snow showers, and even leads to some clearing
this afternoon as the dry arctic airmass finally wins out.

after a brief period of ridging tonight, the next low anchors over
the northern great lakes friday-saturday. the low itself will be
responsible for two waves of accumulating snow friday and again
saturday. for the friday system, forecast soundings show top-down
saturation occurring between roughly 06z-09z friday morning as broad
isentropic ascent envelopes the area. thermal profiles start off
with an isothermal layer at least partially intersecting the
dendritic growth zone, leading to efficient snowfall ratios through
most of the morning. another strong vort max then engages the
elevated frontal zone and saturated dgz before differential thermal
advection causes profiles to shift toward a warmer, more convective
structure. the wave establishes deeper ascent and moisture, causing
in uptick in snowfall rates around mid-day. model snow accumulation
fields are likely underdone given their the reliance on the snow
ratio-qpf formula, in which both parameters are running too low in
the guidance. opted to go with a pattern recognition approach to the
accumulation forecast instead, equating to a widespread 1 to 3 inches
across se michigan. as we saw yesterday, any change in speed to the
upper wave or frontal boundary could push totals toward advisory
levels. regardless of amounts, the cold airmass will allow snow to
accumulate on roadways leading to a slippery morning commute friday.

the synoptic snow comes to an end with the departure of the wave
late friday afternoon. that said, leftover cyclonic flow leaves
plenty of mesoscale opportunity for lake enhanced snow showers
friday night into saturday as column saturation holds on. one
feature of interest is a trough that pivots around the upper great
lakes low, drawing a strong plume of cold advection toward se
michigan saturday morning. 850mb temperatures will have potential to
drop nearly 10 deg c (from roughly -10 c to -20 c) during the day as
a result. this could establish a low level convergence component
across se michigan as the cold air wraps into the southern half of
the cwa around lake michigan. models are again lean on qpf and
snowfall amounts, but another few inches are in reach saturday.

very cold temperatures arrive for early next week with a stretch of
lows in the single digits and sub-zero wind chills. highs in the
teens to low 20s. as of now, monday-wednesday look to have the
coldest temperatures as 850mb temperatures drop to -25 c (currently
around -15 c). additional clipper systems are likely into next
week, with a similar flavor to the current snowfall pattern.
additional snow accumulations are likely. the strongest of these
systems attm is a compact pv anomaly that reaches the great lakes
region monday.

marine...

moderate to strong northerly winds continue through the morning in
the wake of yesterday`s clipper/arctic front supporting widespread
heaving freezing spray across the non-iced waters of lake huron.
gusts up around 30kts remain possible around the thumb/southern
huron until mid-morning when narrow ridging begins to arrive over
the central great lakes. this ridge passes overhead through the
first half of tonight allowing for winds to turn lighter (sub
20kts). the next clipper quickly arrives by friday resulting in
widespread light snow and a re-strengthening of now south-southwest
winds. however, the `milder` accompanying air maintains some degree
of overlake stability which is expected keep gusts under 30kts.
winds turn to the west/northwest saturday as the system pushes into
eastern ontario allowing arctic air to again settle over the great
lakes to close out the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz049-055.

lake huron...gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lhz363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for
lhz363-421-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.