Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
625 am est sun jan 4 2026

.synopsis...
high pressure will expand east across the region today and move off
the east coast on monday. a warm front will lift north across the
area in it`s wake. low pressure will move northeast through the
central great lakes on tuesday.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
surface high pressure over ohio has been stronger than expected
overnight and had a limiting effect on snow in the snowbelt. some
light snow continues to fall in pennsylvania but a surface analysis
shows ridging across eastern lake erie which has cut down on low
level convergence and lift across the lake. in addition, the deep
moisture is pulling away and thermal profiles over the lake are not
cold enough to support pure lake effect. have lowered pops and snow
accumulations which will mainly be confined to eastern portions
of erie county, pa.

a patch of clearing is noted on satellite imagery north of lake
erie. despite this, a stratus deck is expected to get trapped
beneath the inversion near 2500 feet with mostly cloudy skies
persisting today. temperatures will finish off the day just a couple
degrees warmer than saturday. temperatures may drop off quickly in
the east this evening before increasing high level cloud arrives and
the rate of cooling slows. winds will also develop out of the
south overnight on the back side of the departing surface high
with warm advection developing. precipitation associated with
the warm front will tend to be located north of the area with
just a low chance of snow showers progressing across northern
portions of the forecast area late tonight. a mix of sun and
clouds is expected on monday with a warming trend getting
underway and highs in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday night/...
temperatures will continue to warm on tuesday ahead of low pressure
tracking out of the plains towards the southern great lakes. warm
advection continues with 925mb temperatures climbing to 7-10c ahead
of the low and highs climbing into the 40s area wide. we do expect
to see an expansion of stratus and showers through the day as
low pressure passes near or just north of lake erie tuesday
afternoon. there is generally good model agreement between the
00z/04 runs of the canadian, ecmwf, and nam with the low track
while the gfs is stronger and a couple hundred miles farther
north with the track. the operational run of the gfs is on the
stronger end of the gfs envelope and prefer the better consensus
track just north of lake erie. this shortwave trough aloft
quickly progresses east with a secondary shortwave ushering in
meager cold advection on wednesday. this merely slows the
warming trend that will resume for the latter half of the week.

&&

.long term /thursday through saturday/...
high confidence in well above normal temperatures and precipitation
continues for the long term forecast. highs are forecast to be 15-20
degrees above normal thursday into friday with a 564dm ridge at
500mb overhead. shortwave energy races northeast towards the region
ahead of a full latitude trough that approaches by friday night. it
does seem possible for the evolution of this trough to be slower as
it phases with northern stream energy so timing adjustments may be
needed. multiple rounds of rain are expected towards the end of the
week along with a fully melted snowpack. this will lead to a fair
amount of run-off and rises on rivers, especially in northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania where more water is being stored in the
snowpack. the 00z/04 gfs remains an outlier into the extended and
trended several hundred miles south with the surface low track
friday night. the forecast favors a more northern surface low track
but will need to be monitored as models come into better
agreement with the pattern.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
ceilings will generally be mvfr and low-end vfr today with the
most prolonged mvfr conditions anticipated in lake effect
clouds at ne oh/nw pa terminals through this afternoon. ceilings
will likely improve as high pressure briefly takes control this
evening into tonight, however a disturbance will likely usher
lower ceilings into ne oh (best chance of mvfr ceilings will be
north of kyng and northeast of kcle) and nw pa tonight. light
snow showers are likely at keri late in the taf period. winds
will be light and west/northwest this morning before increasing
to 5 to 10 knots by this afternoon and becoming light and
shifting to the south tonight. southerly winds will increase to
5 to 10 knots towards the end of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lower ceilings across the
northern half of the area on monday and possibly into monday
night/tuesday. non-vfr possible in rain late tuesday into
wednesday, then again on thursday.

&&

.marine...
overall, quiet marine conditions are anticipated for the next
several days. winds will largely be out of the west around 6 to 12
knots with waves of 1 to 3 feet in ice free areas today before flow
becomes southerly in response to the development of warm air
advection this evening. winds will likely increase to 10 to 15 knots
early monday morning before shifting to the southwest monday
afternoon through monday evening. there will likely be a period of
winds to 15 to 20 knots in the open waters of the central and
eastern basins monday afternoon before winds diminish below 10 knots
monday night. offshore winds are favored tuesday through thursday,
although winds will briefly become more west/southwest tuesday night
through wednesday. warming temperatures will result in decreasing
ice coverage in the western basin of lake erie from monday onwards.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...10
near term...10
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 041122
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
622 am est sun jan 4 2026

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures and abundant cloud cover continues today.

- low confidence (20-30%) exists in measurable precipitation
this evening and early overnight, mainly north of us route 6.
a brief period of light snow/sleet is possible for these locations,
but little to no impacts are expected as better chances of
wintry precip remain to the north across central/northern
lower michigan.

- confidence does increase towards the end of the the workweek for
rain chances, but timing difference continue.

- cooler and unsettled conditions may persist into next weekend
with continued chance of rain/snow showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 310 am est sun jan 4 2026

a quiet day is in store today with low level warm advection ramping
back up this afternoon. however, mixing potential still appears
limited today with weak warm advection only helping to hold onto the
pesky low level inversion. low clouds may scatter today, but an
increase in mid/high clouds is expected later this afternoon.
overall, expecting temps similar to yesterday and perhaps a few
degrees warmer in spots.

a progressive eastern pacific will shift across the northern rockies
this morning eventually emerging across the dakotas this afternoon.
eastward migration of this wave will allow the low/mid level theta-e
gradient anchored across the central/northern plains to shift east
across the western great lakes by this evening. strongest isentropic
upglide will be relatively short in duration tonight, with best lift
expected in the 03z-09z period. with best forcing from this mid
level trough remaining across central/northern lower michigan
tonight, and condensation pressure deficits of less than 50 mb
remaining well to the north of the local area, prospects of
measurable precip continue to look meager at this point. if
precip does occur mainly north of us route 6 tonight, precip
types could be a bit muddled as dgz and ice nuclei production
layer would be highly elevated and would have to survive some
larger low level dew point depressions. could see a scenario
where a brief period of some light sleet is possible in a narrow
temporal window this evening/early overnight as some
evaporative cooling of dry/weak warm layer occurs. will maintain
some slight/low chance pops across lower michigan tonight, but
impacts are not expected at this time.

passage of the great lakes short wave trough tonight should set the
stage for the onset of a sharper moderating temperature trend to
begin the work week. upstream long wave ridging will dampen somewhat
as it shifts eastward with an additional eastern pacific progressive
wave rippling through this flow into the mid/upper ms valley by
tuesday morning. warm, moist advection should precede this short
wave trough. increase in shallow moisture profiles and broad
warm/moist ascent should allow stratus/drizzle to develop. did
consider adding some patchy fog with an advection fog scenario
possibly unfolding in this setup, but will allow next few forecast
shifts to refine this with relatively low confidence in fog
potential. did maintain some low to mid range chance rain pops on
tuesday across the north given an increase in this advective
component with warm frontal forcing.

a low amplitude flow pattern follows for the middle of the week
which should allow for continuation in the trend for above normal
temperatures. the pattern does look to become active again late work
week as medium range guidance still points mean amplification of
western conus troughing. however, the flow evolution across western
conus is quite complicated heading late work week/next weekend with
several scenarios possible regarding southern/northern stream
phasing. a cut off pv anomaly west of baja of ca also appears to be
complicating any type of solid consensus among individual
guidance members. ec deterministic remains the sharpest with the
mid/upper level trough which would provide warmest solution and
even potential of some iso thunder late work week, but given
large ensemble mean spreads among various individual guidance,
feel a more middle of the road and more suppressed gefs mean
solution is more reasonable at this time. this would still
provide above normal temps through friday with rain eventually
transitioning to some potential snow showers for the weekend.
however, confidence in forecast details remains low for late
work week into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 615 am est sun jan 4 2026

existing tafs remain on track at this time. mvfr stratus
continues to slowly seep south through michigan, now arriving
into northern indiana. nighttime microphysics satellite imagery
depicts some thinning of the stratus over the southeast edge of
lake michigan. this decreases forecast confidence for the
duration of mvfr ceilings at ksbn, especially with obs already
bouncing around categories. in contrast, few030 at kfwa these
past few hours increases confidence that mvfr stratus will fill
in there sooner rather than later.

ceilings improve later this afternoon in response to an
elevated warm front lifting in, with increased low-level mixing
to erode the day`s inversion. wind becomes southerly this
evening with an area of low pressure passing through michigan.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 041056
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
556 am est sun jan 4 2026

.key messages...

- another round of snow is on schedule for late sunday night, mainly
north of m-59. accumulation around 1 inch occurs along the i-69
corridor and increases toward 3 inches in the tri cities and
northern thumb region.

- cold temperatures persist today with wind chill around 10 above
this morning and afternoon high temperatures in the upper 20s.

- a warming trend gets underway monday as high temperatures rise
above freezing. high temperatures are then projected to climb
steadily through the 40s mid to late week.

&&

.aviation...

mvfr ceilings filled in and held through the night and look to hold
at least a few hours more before models show enough dry air to bring
about scattered skies for a few hours this afternoon. this will be
short lived as elevated portions of a warm from lift into the region
this evening passing overhead through most of the overnight. this
front will bring a round of light to briefly moderate snow showers
mainly between 01-09z. best forcing lines up across mid mi and
possibly down to fnt with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible and
mvfr cigs/vsbys filling back in. weaker forcing further south will
lead to a shorter window for snow and less than 1 inch of
accumulation from ptk southward. winds will start off northwesterly
but will flip around to the south this evening through the
overnight.

for dtw... window for light snow is focused between 04z and 07z.
trace amount of accumulation is the most likely scenario for the
terminal area as rates remain light.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 5000 feet this morning. high again this
afternoon through tonight.

* high for snow as precip type.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 423 am est sun jan 4 2026

discussion...

inbound high pressure brings dry weather to se mi but with cloud
trends less clear, as usual in the great lakes this time of year.
however there is potential for a few morning cloud breaks at times
this far east in lower mi as the surface ridge brings still cold but
dry boundary layer air and with reduced wind off lake michigan. lake
effect cloud production becomes more efficient closer to the
shoreline in these scenarios and has lower predictability until the
inversion strengthens this afternoon. temperatures are already in
the lower 20s making afternoon highs projected in the upper 20s
easily reachable before high clouds thicken late in the day ahead of
the next low pressure system.

dry weather continues this evening leading up to the next round of
snow on schedule to move in for the post midnight period. the
pattern quickly develops upstream today as a mid level short wave
crosses the central rockies and into the plains. lee side surface
cyclogenesis then takes advantage of the larger scale baroclinic
zone already in place from the mid atlantic coast into the northern
plains resulting in a textbook pattern of isentropic ascent ahead of
the wave. the surface reflection of the short wave supports a
respectable sw low level jet of 40-50 kts that drives a sharp ridge
of theta-e into the upper midwest and lower mi. model depictions of
the resulting isentropic ascent generate a pronounced vertical
motion response in a profile of low stability to borderline unstable
within the moisture axis. moisture availability will also be
generous as specific humidity in the 850-700 mb layer rises into the
3-4 g/kg range during peak forcing which supports 0.2 to 0.3 inch
model qpf north of m-46. these elements of the system result in a
burst of near 1 inch per hour rate that builds southward from
northern lower mi to graze the tri cities and northern thumb,
impressive in all aspects except duration. href mean model soundings
also indicate a warming mid level profile to reaching about -3c in
the 850-700 mb layer, suggesting a slr closer to 10:1. the short
duration and lower snow ratio point to an event that is just under
the 4 inch advisory criteria for the tri cities and northern thumb,
tapering to 1 inch along the i-69 corridor, and to no accumulation
south of i-94.

snow ends before sunrise monday morning and passage of the system
also helps scour out the arctic air that has been entrenched across
the region over the last few days. the warming trend continues
through mid week as larger scale split flow matures across north
america. this pattern carries a short wave into the great lakes
tuesday just as temperatures warm toward an all rain precipitation
type. pockets of light rain/snow mix are possible with an earlier
onset tuesday morning before temperatures rise toward 40 in the
afternoon. this system ushers in an even warmer temperature pattern
that includes highs in the mid to upper 40s by late week.

marine...

high pressure slides overhead today, shifting winds from west to
southwest. the next clipper system lifts toward lake superior early
monday morning, bringing another round of light to moderate snow to
lake huron that tapers in coverage toward lake erie. the low weakens
as it approaches, causing the gradient to relax and leading to just
a modest increase in winds/wave heights for monday. southerly flow
initiates a notable warming trend through the work week,
transitioning additional precipitation chances from snow to either
all rain or a rain-snow mix. no obvious headline concerns as of yet
for the work week, as most of the lows to impact the great lakes
remain weak and progressive.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...bt
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.