Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
873
fxus61 kcle 031706
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
106 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing in a period of showers and
thunderstorms saturday afternoon/evening, with pops increasing
to the 70/80% range. the latest forecast data is also trending
towards a low potential for severe weather saturday afternoon.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions continue with temperatures gradually warming
through friday.

2) the weather pattern will change for the weekend, allowing for
showers and storm chances for saturday through sunday. there is
low potential for severe weather saturday afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure over the great lakes region will allow for
continued dry and seasonable weather. as high pressure departs
to the southeast, southwest flow will allow for temperatures in
the 70s today to increase into the 80s thursday and friday.

key message 2...
an upper-level trough and cold front move southeast across the
great lakes region saturday and sunday. southwest low-level flow
and continued building of humidity will allow for a broad
favorable region for scattered showers and thunderstorms early
saturday morning through sunday afternoon, though there is
focused period of better forcing saturday afternoon/evening,
with a period of 70-80% pops (an increase from the previous
forecast).

latest model guidance has been trending towards a slightly more
favorable solution for a marginal severe weather threat
saturday afternoon. all three major model ensembles
(gefs/ens/cmc), have stronger flow aloft compared to the last
few cycles (resulting in better forcing and deep-layer shear).
uncertainty is primarily with timing of synoptic-scale features,
and with run-to-run consistency with model guidance.

consequently, the risk for flooding has decreased somewhat.
stronger flow should yield faster storm motions, reducing the
residence time of thunderstorms over any one particular
location. the high-end qpf signal in the nbm, particularly in
the 90-95 percentile range, has decreased compared to previous
cycles, further limiting the flood risk. however, high
pwats and other moisture indicators still support efficient
rainfall rates within thunderstorms, which could result in
minor, localized flooding in flood-prone locations.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period with high
pressure across the region and dry and clear conditions. winds
will be light and less than 10 kts through the period. a general
northerly flow will continue through this afternoon and evening.
south to southwest flow will be favored on thursday, as high
pressure slides east. there is some potential for a modified
lake breeze on thursday afternoon, which may allow for northerly
flow at keri and perhaps kcle.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms on saturday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the region through friday will allow for
fairly benign marine conditions. light and variable winds will
continue on the lake today and tonight with dry and clear
weather. while dry weather will continue through friday, winds
will shift around to the southwest for thursday and then increase
slightly with good afternoon mixing on friday up to the 10 to
15 kt range. a low pressure system will enter the region for the
weekend, bringing some storm chances. southwest winds will
continue on saturday before a cold front sweeps through on
saturday night, bringing northerly flow to the region for
sunday. no marine headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
446
fxus63 kiwx 031734
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
134 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

.key messages...

- trending warmer into thursday and friday with highs into the 80s.

- chances (20-50%) for showers and storms enter the forecast north
of the us 24 corridor friday afternoon into friday evening.

- better rain and storm chances (50-80%) area-wide on saturday with
heavy downpours and lightning the primary threats.

- mainly dry sunday into monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 133 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

an expansive low level anticyclone overhead will sink off to the
southeast by thursday and friday. this will allow our stretch of
pleasant weather to persist to end the week with warmer highs into
the low to mid 80s as southwesterly flow ramps up on the backside of
the aforementioned surface high. a more dramatic increase in column
moisture remains delayed until later friday and saturday. this
incoming high theta-e air in conjunction with several mid level
disturbances traversing the area in flattened quasi-zonal flow aloft
could yield periodic scattered showers and storms, particularly on
saturday with heavier downpours possible. the bulk of available
model guidance suggests a return to drier wx sunday into early next
week as the frontal boundary and associated moisture axis likely
gets shunted just to the south and west of the iwx cwa.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1253 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

high pressure remains in place through the taf period promoting
tranquil weather conditions. few to sct clouds are streaming in
from the west but are expected to clear after sunset. vrb wind
again tonight with a loss of daytime mixing followed by south-
southwest wind developing midday thursday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
323
fxus63 kdtx 031641
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1241 pm edt wed jun 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warm through tomorrow.

- the next chance of rain develops friday and continues through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

very dry airmass in place with sprawling high pressure over the ohio
valley and great lakes region providing very light winds. clear
skies (outside of high clouds) expected to persist into tomorrow
morning. slowly increasing southwest winds tomorrow will allow an
increase in low level moisture, which may be able to support
scattered vfr (5 kft) cloud development.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 314 am edt wed jun 3 2026

discussion...

lengthy quiet stretch of weather continues today as the center of
the persistent surface high passes over the great lakes this
morning. the high will slowly drift southeast through the day and
overnight reaching the mid atlantic coast by thursday afternoon.
flow will be light and variable today with only light northerly
winds aloft to start the day but the slow drift southward will allow
for a weak southwesterly wind to develop later in the day. looking
aloft, the blocking pattern is breaking with a strong wave passing
through canada which will flatten the amplified ridge over the great
lakes while folding it into the region. this will help develop
deeper southwesterly flow which will advect warmer air into the
region with 850mb temps rising over 10c, after hovering in the upper
single digits for a couple days, which will help boost high temps
into the 80s today.

continued warm air advection and influence of the ridge, will bump
temps up further on thursday into the mid to upper 80s. we`ll stay
dry yet again with dewpoints possibly breaking 50f in the afternoon
which keeps humidity in the 30 percent range. we stay warm on friday
but a slow moving front dropping toward the northern great lakes
will help focus moisture advecting along it along with remnant
convective waves later friday through saturday bringing chances of
showers and thunderstorms back to the area. this is all coinciding
with an upper level trough tracking over saturday as well. stacked
ridging then moves back in behind the passing front sunday which
should dry us back out. we`ll see how long the ridging can hold over
the region before stalled troughing west of lake mi finally pushes
east, which may not be til later in the week.

marine...

high pressure continues to sit atop the great lakes region today
into thursday, then pushing southeastward as a cold front comes
through on friday. north lake huron is expecting relatively light
winds shifting eastward, while southern lake huron, lake st. clair
and the coast of lake erie will experience relatively light winds
out of the north. this will then turn into a northerly flow for all
marine areas as we approach thursday into friday. as our cold front
approaches friday night into saturday, this will bring us our next
chance of rain and thunderstorms along with some breezy conditions
over the area.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...drk
marine.......mv/to


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.