Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
746 am edt mon sep 14 2026

.what has changed...
there is now a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
on tuesday across northwest ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and cooler today as canadian high pressure quickly moves east
across the great lakes region.

2) chances for showers and return tuesday and continue through
thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a taste of fall expected today as canadian high pressure quickly
pushes eastward across the region. dry conditions persist through
the day today. high temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees
across much of the forecast area with low 70s most likely across the
i-75 corridor. chilly low temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. as the high exits to the east, southerly return flow will
put the region back into the warm sector by tuesday.

key message 2...
low pressure moving east across ontario will lift a warm front
across the forecast area on tuesday. the bulk of the area should
remain dry during the day on tuesday with the exception of zones in
northwest ohio. scattered strong to severe storms will approach from
the west tuesday afternoon and evening bringing a localized risk of
damaging wind gusts. counties along the i-75 corridor are in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms on tuesday. locally
heavy rainfall is possible across northwest ohio given pwats
increasing to 1.75-2.00 inches tuesday evening.

the system will then drag a cold front east across the region
tuesday night before the front stalls across the region wednesday
and thursday. scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected both
days as the stationary front remains draped across the northern ohio
valley. showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall across the region as areawide pwats range between 1.75-2.25
inches through mid/late week. the wpc has our entire forecast area
under a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall
wednesday and thursday. the stationary front will dive south
thursday night into friday allowing for any remaining precipitation
chances to decrease by the end of the week.

highs temperatures through this week will rise into the upper 70s to
lower 80s with warm overnight lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
cool high pressure entering the region will allow for dry
conditions today with generally northerly winds. some low
vfr/mvfr level clouds will develop with the cold advective flow
over the lake but any ceilings will be few and intermittent at
best. high pressure will move over and then east of the area by
tonight and low clouds will largely clear out and winds will
shift to the south/southeast. high level clouds will enter from
the west behind high pressure on tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms tuesday
through thursday.

&&

.marine...
conditions along and west of the islands have improved as high
pressure begins to take hold. have expired the small craft advisory
and beach hazards statement for the western basin with the 4 am
forecast package. the scy and bhs remains in effect for the central
and eastern basins, and neighboring lakeshore zones, through 10 am
this morning as buoys continue to report winds 15-20 knots and waves
3-6 feet.

there remains the potential for waterspouts to develop across the
central and eastern basins of lake erie early this morning into the
late morning hours.

conditions will improve through this morning as high pressure builds
across the region leading to light and variable winds by this
evening. winds turn offshore at 10-18 knots tuesday with wave
heights in nearshore zones 2 feet or less. winds turn northerly but
decrease to 10-15 knots tuesday night into wednesday as a cold front
moves across lake erie. no additional marine headlines are expected
through the end of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for
ohz010>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
740 am edt mon sep 14 2026

.key messages...

- cooler today with highs in the 70s with comfortable humidity
levels and sun.

- turning hot and humid tuesday and wednesday. rain and storms
possible tuesday afternoon through wednesday with 40-80%
chances.

- there is a marginal risk for isolated severe storms on
tuesday. main threat is damaging winds if storms become
severe. confidence is low at this time.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along
the berrien co, mi shoreline tuesday. breaking waves and
currents expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 530 am edt mon sep 14 2026

cooler and dry today, with calm winds this morning strengthening out
of the east-southeast through the day. highs will be in the 70s.
patchy ground fog is possible this morning. winds shift south-
southwest this evening into tuesday morning with gusts up to around
25-30 mph on/along lake mi, so have a small craft advisory for both
of our marine zones. we have a moderate swim risk for beaches along
the berrien county, mi shoreline on tuesday as winds shift southwest
and waves build to 2-3 feet (highest further north). a strong
longshore current flowing from south to north along the beaches is
likely, in addition to strong structural currents near piers and
breakwalls (especially the south sides). rip currents are possible.

surface high pressure sprawled across the great lakes today will
slowly shift eastward to the east coast by tuesday afternoon. the
upper level ridge will remain anchored over the se conus, extending
northward today into the great lakes before taking on a more sw to
ne tilt through tuesday. meanwhile, an upper level low and surface
low pressure system drift through the canadian prairies/northern
plains and into quebec/hudson bay/james bay through tuesday night.
the subsequent upper level trough reaches down into mn/wi/mi by tue
afternoon, breaking down/shifting our ridge east so we are left with
relatively zonal flow through at least thursday. at the surface, the
cold front extends down from northern ontario (tue am) into ia/il/mo
(occluding further north in wi/upper mi). the warm front is draped
from down from wi through il/tn/ky at the same time. return flow
around the exiting surface high will pull up warm, moist air from
the gulf into our forecast area through the morning/afternoon hours.
the cold front arrives on our western doorstep by tue evening,
shifting east-southeast overnight before becoming stationary/diffuse
wed am. for now, have pops in the 20-50 percent range for late
tonight (far west near lake mi) and tuesday morning, expanding
slightly east and lingering on our northern cwa through the
afternoon. some of the model guidance brings the warm front up and
starts rain showers/isolated storms earlier tuesday, then we have a
quick break and chances increase again late afternoon/early evening
further west along lake mi near the cold front. others keep any warm
front precip further northeast out of our area, so it`s possible tue
is mostly dry (some of these models also slightly slower with the
front). have 20-50% chances until the early evening hours (highest
north and west), and then increase chances to 40-80% after that as
the front enters the cwa and stalls out. severe weather potential
depends on what happens in the earlier part of the day tue, and then
on the front timing and strength in the evening (some slight height
rises still that could limit intensity, especially further se). if
we can keep building instability through the day and the cold front
arrives in the late afternoon/early evening, we could see isolated
severe storms with damaging wind gusts. instability could be as high
as 2000 j/kg (mlcape), with 20-30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear
(slightly higher further north in mi). confidence is still pretty
low, as mid level lapse rates are pretty crummy (5-6 c/km), there is
potential for mid-level height rises that could limit intensity
(front becomes more diffuse with time), and impacts from earlier
daytime showers or storms (if they happen) could make the
environment less favorable overall. spc still has our area in a
marginal risk for severe weather occurring. high temperatures on
tuesday could reach into the upper 80s, low 90s west of i 69 and
further south. a lot will depend on whether we have cloud
debris/morning rain or storms that limit the daytime heating. it
will also be more humid than today.

the front stalls/washes out and we have zonal flow aloft through
thursday...which makes us susceptible to various shortwaves that
move through. the stationary boundary does lift northward a bit as
warm air advects in from the south again, eventually orienting it
from ne mo into north central il, nw in, and southern lower mi. this
keeps around 30-60% chances for rain and thunderstorm activity until
thursday. highs will be in the 70s, low-mid 80s for most days.

low chances for showers and storms continue through the weekend (20-
30%), with highs in the 70s, low 80s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 739 am edt mon sep 14 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals through tonight. light
ese winds strengthen and shift towards the south late tonight
into tue am. expect increasing high clouds through then, and any
precip chances for ksbn holding off until beyond the taf
period.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
449 am edt mon sep 14 2026

.key messages...

- sunny and cooler with low humidity today.

- a chance of showers and thunderstorms returns tuesday. the best
chance of storms is late afternoon and evening south of i-69.

- a chance of showers lingers wednesday before becoming more
numerous wednesday night and thursday.

- dry weather with temperatures around normal friday into next
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a dry and stable air mass is in place today with high pressure in
control, leading to light north to northeast winds (under 10 knots).
mainly clear skies today, but a period of few-sct vfr diurnal cu is
likely, with best cloud coverage across the eastern thumb region.
mid to high based clouds will thicken up this evening and tonight as
a warm front lifts through the western great lakes into northern
lower michigan. higher based showers are likely in the vicinity of
mbs and possibly fnt late tonight, with a very low chance of an
embedded thunderstorm.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 am edt mon sep 14 2026

discussion...

the center of expansive surface high pressure drifts across central
lower mi to dominate conditions today. it has already delivered a
cool and dry air mass to the region as evidenced by temperature
observations dropping into the upper 40s outside of detroit and away
from the shorelines. also impressive is temperature guidance that
struggles to break 70 this afternoon despite full sun, although we
are getting closer to the equinox.

high clouds are on the increase this evening which signal a quick
transition to the next low pressure system. it is projected to move
out of the rockies and along the canadian border today and occlude
across nw ontario tonight. this track sets up the low level jet and
plume of moisture transport from the central plains into the
northern great lakes which then settles into central lower mi by
sunrise tuesday. behavior of regional and hi-res deterministic
models reflects a tendency for erosion of the precipitation pattern
by dry air lingering out ahead of the system. there is also some
breakup caused by the moisture axis outrunning the upper jet and mid
level short wave, both of which are positioned well to the north
across northern ontario and the northern great lakes. mostly chance
or scattered pop guidance in the nbm looks good in this regard until
flaring up later tuesday afternoon. daytime heating is projected to
boost convection by then, mainly across metro detroit to the ohio
border, as the cold front crosses the area into tuesday evening. the
spc day 2 outlook grazes lenawee and monroe counties in a marginal
risk for severe intensity.

the surface cold front makes it south of the in/oh border by
wednesday morning where it stalls and wavers across central in/oh
through wednesday night and thursday. this keeps a chance of showers
in the forecast for se mi, mainly south of i-69 as elevated portions
of the frontal zone are activated by southward expanding upper level
jet. the 00z models maintain a consensus on a more coherent mid
level short wave and surface low pressure reflection along the
stationary front late wednesday night and thursday. ml/ai runs of
the gfs and ecmwf help narrow down areas closer to the ohio border
for the highest pops and qpf, and in general agreement with the wpc
marginal outlook for excessive rainfall.

we get a break in showers/storms by friday in the subsidence wake of
the passing short wave. building surface high pressure drives the
frontal zone well down into the ohio valley where it takes most of
saturday to begin a northward return. global/extended range models
bring the next low pressure system back into the upper midwest
saturday and through lower mi sunday.

marine...

nw wind dropped off rapidly with the approach of broad surface high
pressure since midnight. the high moves across lower mi and lake
huron today on pace for a rapid transition of conditions ahead of the
next low pressure system. this system gains strength while tracking
across the canadian prairies tonight and tuesday, and eventually
reaches the hudson bay region by tuesday night/wednesday. southerly
flow out ahead of the system will increase across the north half of
lake huron with gusts now expected to reach gale force toward sunrise
tuesday and continuing through mid afternoon. concern for warm air
falling short of gales is balanced by model soundings that do
indicate a well mixed boundary layer within the inbound warmer air
mass, and this makes the wind profile capable of tapping into higher
gusts aloft. the gale watch is upgraded to a warning in this forecast
update with the same effective time of 4 am tonight through 4 pm
tuesday. it was also decided to include zone lh361 as gusts reach
offshore of presque isle and extend northward across the canadian
border. a band of showers and thunderstorms also accompanies this
gale event until pushed to the south and east by a cold front tuesday
night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz361>363.

small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory from 2 am to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...bt
marine.......ss/bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.