Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
645
fxus61 kcle 141810
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
210 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

.what has changed...
another heat advisory has been issued for wednesday, but this time
it encompasses more of north central and ne ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) the hottest day of this stretch will be wednesday, with peak
heat indices in the 95 to 105 degree range leading to major heatrisk
(level 3 of 4) areawide.

2) gradual cooling thursday through the weekend with periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms. the greatest potential will
be friday and saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a large bubble of hot and humid air is becoming established across
the region this afternoon as an elongated and anomalous h5 ridge
averaging 600 dam temporarily builds into the great lakes. afternoon
satellite and water vapor loops show this ridge currently centered
over southern portions of minnesota and wisconsin, and the center
will slide se into the ohio and tennessee valleys by late wednesday.
the position and movement of this h5 ridge center will make for a
different type of heat compared to the late june/early july event.

first, the westerly mid/upper flow on the northern periphery of the
ridge will direct the warmest temperatures (averaging 26 c at 850
mb) across the northern and central great lakes tonight and
wednesday. some of this will drop se across our region wednesday as
the ridge center moves southeastward, but generally expect the
hottest air temperatures to occur in lower michigan. second, the
airmass circulating nw to se across the region will lead to lower
max dew points compared to the previous heat event, with dew points
expected to peak in the upper 60s/low 70s wednesday. this should cap
max heat indices in the 95 to 105 f range (warmest in nw ohio). with
all of this being said, wednesday will be the hottest day of this
stretch with major heatrisk impacts (level 3 of 4) expected for
vulnerable populations, but we are not looking at extreme impacts
this time since the worst conditions will be north of the area.
issued a heat advisory for wednesday for all counties in the cwa
except for lake, geauga, ashtabula, erie, and crawford since an
onshore component to the low-level flow should help to keep temps
and heat indices lower there.

key message 2...
the mid/upper ridge will start to become suppressed farther sw into
the ohio and tennessee valleys wednesday night and thursday in
response to a mid/upper trough deepening over eastern canada. this
trough will continue to slowly deepen through the great lakes and
suppress/retrograde the ridge friday through the weekend. as this
process occurs, gradually cooler and less humid conditions will
drop into the area. an initial frontal boundary sagging through
the southern great lakes and upper ohio valley wednesday night
and thursday will advect notably lower dew points across the
region for thursday and friday as low-level flow turns northerly
and surface high pressure builds down into the eastern great
lakes. although air temperatures will still be very warm
thursday and friday (mid 80s to low 90s), the lower dew points
will keep heat indices lower. the real cooling when air
temperatures will drop will occur by sunday into early next week
as the mid/upper trough further deepens.

the other aspect that this changing weather pattern will bring is
the potential for convection. the initial sagging front
wednesday night will interact with moderate to strong
instability beneath a stout eml. the latest href and rrfs
continue to show uncertainty, but there is an increasing signal
for some widely scattered convection wednesday night if the cap
can break, so added chance pops. the better potential for
convection will occur friday over the sw portions of the cwa and
saturday over more of the area as the frontal boundary slowly
lifts back northeastward in response to a couple of shortwaves
dropping through the developing nw flow aloft. we are not
currently outlooked for severe weather, but would not be
surprised to see it in future outlooks since the combination of
at least moderate instability and increasing upper jet
support/shear could support organized convection, especially
saturday. the biggest uncertainty lies with convective evolution
and timing, as the pattern supports upstream mcs activity
potentially dropping se through the region at times in addition
to local development. conditions will gradually trend drier
sunday through early next week as the trough deepens and pushes
the frontal boundary south allowing canadian high pressure to
build in.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are generally expected through the taf period
with southwest to west flow through the next 24-30 hours. there
may be some variant to the wind direction for kcle and keri with
a lake breeze on wednesday. there will be some high clouds or
canadian wildfire smoke filtering through the region that will
give a sct/bkn ceiling through the taf period. it is possible
that some of this may mix down to the surface at times in the
next 24-30 hours, but there is a better probability after the
taf period.

outlook...non-vfr visibility possible wednesday night and
thursday due to wildfire smoke. non-vfr likely starting friday
night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
elevated southwest flow will continue over lake erie this
afternoon and evening with high pressure advancing eastward and
increasing the pressure gradient over the lake. the highest
waves will continue out of the nearshore zones with a flavor of
2 to 3 ft closer to the nw pa/ne oh shoreline. as high pressure
advances east for wednesday, southwest flow will continue and
diminish. a cold front will move east for wednesday night into
thursday and stall out across the lake. this will flip flow to
the north/northeast on thursday. this boundary will remain
across the lake on friday, maintaining weak east flow. several
low pressure systems will move through the region over the
weekend, strengthening southwest flow at times and bringing
intermittent storm chances.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>011-
017>019.
heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz003-
006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
667
fxus63 kiwx 141713
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
113 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

.key messages...

- hot conditions this week.

- chances for showers and storms return late this week into this
weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 112 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

the heat is upon the area as 850 mb temps greater than 18c are
aloft. there are differences in the magnitude of temperatures aloft,
but the lower bounds of the temperature range is not low enough to
make this uncertainty a limiting factor. the main limiting factor
for heat this time around is the extent of humidity that the area
deals with. given the recent lack of precipitation, crop
evapotranspiration may have a more limited response. additionally,
the moisture within this ridge is being advected in from the
central/northern plains as opposed to the gulf. the ecmwf and the
nam both appear to keep the low level lapse rates below 7c/km, but
there are models that want to reduce humidity during the
midday/afternoon due to mixing, which adds uncertainty, especially
for areas south of us-24. it also appears that smoke is wrapping
into the area on the hrrr which could negatively affect temperature.
if these factors go the other direction and increase, the
possibility is there for a heat warning in the vicinity of fort
wayne east and north (generally along and east of us-24). have at
least issued a heat advisory for heat indices between 100 and 104
for wednesday. the issue with thursday is that a backdoor front
edges towards the area. cooling/drying appears to occur in some
models to varying extents and the full suite of models produce rain
thursday afternoon lending less confidence in retaining heat
headlines then. the boundary looks to move back northward for friday
so heat headlines could be needed again for friday but convection
chances increase then as well.

speaking of rain chances, model confluence exists around pushing the
ridge center towards the southeastern us/mid atlantic thursday,
reintroducing gulf moisture to the area. this allows for the return
of at least afternoon convective initiation. the better low level
jet kinematics remain north of the area limiting severe weather
potential to cell interactions and outflow boundaries in what would
appear to be a borderline severe weather chance at best. mid level
height steering points to an mcs moving from the upper great lakes
into the mid atlantic/northeast region friday night into saturday.
there`s a chance that that dives southward early and affects our
northeastern areas of nw oh and s lower mi. otherwise, model
confluence occurs around a cold front pushing south through the area
later saturday/ sat night. better jet kinematics and instability
reside across the area meaning severe weather would be possible with
favorable timing. we`ll also have to watch monday as this cold front
moves northward as a warm front and then another cold front pushes
through with a good combination of shear and instability.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 102 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

winds remain light this afternoon out of the west around 5 kts.
high pressure overhead will allow for dry, quiet conditions with
vfr ceilings to prevail across our area. winds diminish after
sunset tonight to become light and variable overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005-012>015-022-023-104-116-204-216.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>024-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
heat advisory from noon edt /11 am cdt/ to 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/
wednesday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt
wednesday night for inz020.
air quality alert until midnight cdt wednesday night for
inz103-203.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016.
heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for miz078>081-
177-277.
air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt
wednesday night for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
919
fxus63 kdtx 141941
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
341 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

.key messages...

- the heat advisory has been extended until wednesday evening for max
heat indices in excess of 100f.

- egle has declared an air quality alert for wednesday due to
encroaching canadian wildfire smoke reaching the surface and the
resultant rise in pm2.5.

- a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible late wednesday
afternoon.

- a gradual cooldown begins thursday with periods of showers and
thunderstorms from friday into early next week.

&&

.discussion...

clean mid to upper level ridging in place across all of the great
lakes region with nary a reflectivity return from surrounding
radars. the combination of high static stability in the lowest 10.0
kft agl and relative humidity at less than 10% at the base of the
steeper lapse rates aloft has resulted in little cloud outside of
some patches of cirrus. modeled vorticity fields and height charts
show the centroid of the ridge elongating and pivoting directly
through southeast michigan today. outstanding absolute anticyclonic
vorticity dipole set to move through indicative of strong active
subsidence. model soundings show significant additional warming
between 3.0 to 9.0 this morning with a lowering of the capping
inversion this afternoon. all dynamical processes support the
hottest day this week with highs today making a run at 100 degrees.
humidity in a relative sense will be lower, but it is important to
stress that surface dewpoints will still be in the 60s. a heat
advisory is in effect today between noon and 8pm and any duration of
heat indices reaching 105 degrees is expected to be at less than 3
hours.

forecast data supports temperatures settling into the lower to
middle 70s tonight. as a result will allow the heat advisory to fall
off this evening and make additional decisions on a day to day
basis. broad long wavelength troughing is expected to evolve over
northeastern north america by the daylight hours on wednesday with
some semblances that upper level jet axis will push into northern
portions of the lake huron basin. this change in curvature in
trajectories is usually adequate in inducing a backdoor front off
the great lakes. thetae fields show the sharp low column baroclinic
zone pushing in and stalling over northern portions of the forecast
area between 15-18z. notable item for wednesday is that with the
frontal zone in proximity nbm guidance has surface dewpoints rising
into the lower 70s for the southern cwa, the same area that is still
eclipsed by the compressed heat dome/ava signal. anticipating
additional heat headlines south of i 69 wednesday. nocturnal
release of the marine layer should help usher in lower dewpoints for
areas south of detroit wednesday night.
this has
significant impact not only on wind speeds, but also on wind
direction, along with bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

very warm conditions are expected to persist through the end of the
week with daytime temperatures ranging in the 80s in the thumb to
the lower 90s across the southwest forecast area. current thought is
that heat indices for the warmest locations should hold below 100
degrees thursday and friday.

upper level northwest flow will carve out a deeper atmospheric
frontal axis in vicinity of southeast michigan and the great lakes
this weekend. jet entrance region dynamics sliding into the upper
great lakes should lead to synoptic scale lift and precipitation
chances beginning this weekend. difficult to time onset and duration
of precipitation periods with details highly dependent on thunderstorm
complex tracking.

&&

.marine...

a hot airmass remains in place today over the central great lakes,
leading to stable low level profiles. this should hold west-
southwesterly wind gusts below 25 knots for the rest of today,
mainly across the northern third of lake huron and saginaw bay. a
weak backdoor front drops south tonight into wednesday allowing
winds to eventually veer to the northwest behind the front. winds
still only top out around 20 knots wednesday evening over the north
half of lake huron. a couple pop-up storms are possible along lake
breeze development. northwest winds at or below 20 knots holds on
thursday. lower confidence forecast for friday and saturday due to
conflicting model guidance regarding the location and magnitude of a
surface low moving through the great lakes region. this has
significant impact not only on wind speeds, but also on wind
direction, along with bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt tue jul 14 2026

aviation...

high pressure remains in place today confining cloud cover to
passing cirrus. modest westerly winds this afternoon with peak gusts
between 15-20kts. wildfire smoke over northern mi is forecast to
start expanding south into se mi at the very end of the current
period so haven`t included mention in this taf update.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance for an isolated
thunderstorm wednesday evening after roughly 22z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms wednesday evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt wednesday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kgk/sf
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.