Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
623 am est wed jan 14 2026

.what has changed...
the winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a lake effect
snow warning for southern erie county pa for snow accumulations
between 6 and 10 inches with locally higher amounts possible where
heavy snow bands persist. the lake effect setup for tonight
through thursday evening continues to trend slightly more
favorable for snow in the region and additional headline
changes may need to be considered today.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain will change to snow today, and a quick 1 to 2 inches of
snow is expected during the late afternoon hours, which may
cause hazardous travel conditions during the evening commute.

2) lake effect snow will continue tonight through thursday
evening, bringing several inches of snow and more hazardous
travel conditions in ne oh and nw pa.

3) temperatures will rapidly fall below into the teens tonight
into thursday with near to below zero wind chills, posing a
minor cold exposure risk.

4) a cold weather outbreak is expected for this weekend into
next week with several systems bringing additional rounds of
snow, single digit low temperatures, and wind chills below zero.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the local area will be between a system moving through the ohio
valley and an approaching cold front to start the day. therefore,
with forcing surrounding but not over the area, it may take a
while for some rain showers to spread into the region and have a
slightly drier start to the forecast. the main cold front
feature should reach the toledo metro area by noon and spread
east this afternoon, changing any rain over to snow with a more
organized band of snow expected with the front. this band of
snow should allow for a half inch to inch for most locations
outside of the snow belt and there could be some low travel
impacts just due to the evening commute timing. however, for the
snow belt region of ne oh and nw pa, there will be the potential
for both some lake enhancement and upslope with this snow band
there could be a quick 1-2" of snow for the cleveland metro up
along i-90 into nw pa. this may allow for the evening commute to
be a bit more messy for travel impacts. some special weather
statements, or even a snow squall warning, are likely for later
today, especially if there can be an organized band with
visibility drops, increased winds, and quick road impacts.


key message 2...
with the cold frontal passage today, temperatures will plummet
with 850 mb temperatures of -16 to -19 c settling over lake
erie, which is back to being mostly ice-free. while snow will
start more synoptically-driven with the cold front, snow showers
should sustain and transition to a more traditional lake
enhanced snow event for ne oh and nw pa. the main question for
the forecast will be - where will the closed mid-level low track
tonight into thursday? overall, the trend in many of the models
is for this low to be stronger and more helpful in pulling some
of the moisture from a low pressure system moving up the
appalachians back toward lake erie. that is worthy of about
another inch of snow in ne oh/nw pa from the previous forecast.
however, despite being 20-30 hours away from this low moving
across lake erie, there is still some spread and this will be
key to the location for the heaviest snow through thursday
evening. the closed low track on some guidance, including the
rgem and ecmwf, show a low further southwest over cleveland/ne
oh by 12z thursday. this would offer more synoptic support for
snow tonight and allow for snow totals to increase quite a bit.
whereas, other guidance, including the gfs and nam, have this
low tracking more from london, ontario to jamestown, ny tonight
and suggesting more efficient snowfall east of the forecast area
into ny and less qpf/snow over ne oh and nw pa tonight. in the
end, opted to go in the middle of the two scenarios for qpf and
snow, but will need to watch trends today. additionally, the
track of this low will also be key in the direction of the lake
huron lake effect bands that will impact the area on thursday
with winds going from northwest to west-northwest. overall, the
consensus is that some portion of erie county pa will be the
main target but the spread may be albion/cranesville/edinboro
vs. colt station/little hope/lowville/wattsburg. therefore, have
totals in southern erie county pa as 6 to 10 inches through 1
am friday with the potential for higher amounts where the snow
bands end up setting up.

with all of this considered, have upgraded southern erie county,
pa to a lake effect snow warning from 11 am today to 1 am
friday. have left all of the other winter weather advisories
alone with the timing but amounts are up an inch on average or
so. if a more wet and snowy pattern emerges tonight, there is
potential for more snow in ne oh and nw pa and advisories may
need to be expanded and some advisories may need to be upgraded
to lake effect snow warnings.

key message 3...
as mentioned above, the cold front moving through today will
usher in colder air with 850 mb temperatures as low as -19 c
into the region tonight. this will translate to surface low
temperatures in the teens. with elevated northwest winds in the
region of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph, there will be a
notable impact to wind chills. wind chill values will fall to 5
to -5 f overnight and into the thursday morning commute. this
will pose a minor cold exposure risk to those outdoors.

key message 4...
as continually mentioned for several days now, there will be
several systems starting this weekend that will allow for
sustained cold air and chances for snow through the middle of
next week. a series of upper level troughs with origins over the
arctic will dig into the great lakes region and allow for cold
clipper systems to move through the area. each clipper system
will bring snow chances and flare up lake effect snow machine.
however, each system will bring colder temperatures each time.
high temperatures will fall into the teens or lower 20s starting
on sunday and low temperatures will be in the single digits as
early as saturday night. synoptic winds will remain with 10 to
20 mph of flow and wind chills overnight will start near zero on
saturday night and trend to below zero for the morning commutes
on sunday through wednesday. there continue to be signals that
this colder air mass may trend colder and that could prompt cold
weather advisories some time next week.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
big bag of mvfr/vfr ceilings will steadily diminish to low end
mvfr and ifr into this afternoon as a low pressure system begins
to spread precipitation across the area. initial precipitation
will fall as rain before a brief period of a rain/snow mix along
the boundary transitions to all snow this afternoon. periods of
heavy snow are possible, especially along and east of i-71 where
visibilities have the potential to drop below 1sm at times.
confidence was too low to place those visibilities in the tafs
at this point, but worth noting the potential of rapidly
changing conditions through the afternoon. late this evening,
the front pushes east, leaving a surface trough across the area
which will usher in lake effect snow. terminals including kcle,
kyng, and keri will likely be the most impacted by these snow
showers through the end of the period.

winds this morning will quickly shift from westerly to
northwesterly and increase to 12-15 knots behind the front
across the western counties. east of i71, sustained winds will
increase to 10-12 knots. gusts across the area today will be in
the 20-25 knots range. these winds will gradually weaken
overnight tonight, although at least 20 knot gusts will remain
possible.

outlook...non-vfr expected to continue on thursday, most
widespread east of the i-71 corridor in lake effect snow
showers. non-vfr likely in snow showers on friday and saturday.
non-vfr may linger across ne oh and nw pa on sunday.

&&

.marine...
unsettled marine conditions are expected to persist into next
week as multiple low pressure systems traverse the great lakes
region. given only very brief periods of weaker winds, the
central and eastern small craft advisories have been extended
through friday, although will likely need extended further. in
the western basin, there is likely going to be a more notable
lull in winds between systems so opted to issue a small craft
this afternoon through thursday and will reevaluate the need
for extension with future forecast updates.

there is currently a brief lull in winds this morning
from the southwest, but as a cold front pushes east late this
morning into the afternoon, winds will back to become
northwesterly and increase to 20-25 knots across the entire
lake. given onshore flow, expect waves of of 3-5 feet to with
waves occasionally up to 10 feet across the central and eastern
basins. there is a non-zero chance that a period of brief gales
will occur across the central basin late tonight into thursday,
however confidence was not high enough to further upgrade any
marine headlines.

a brief area of high pressure will nudge north on
thursday, allowing for winds to become southwesterly and once
again increase to 2-25 knots ahead of another cold front
thursday night into friday morning and persist through friday
night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm est
thursday for ohz011>014-089.
pa...winter weather advisory from 11 am this morning to 1 am est
friday for paz001-003.
lake effect snow warning from 11 am this morning to 1 am est
friday for paz002.
marine...small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 pm est
thursday for lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est friday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
633 am est wed jan 14 2026

.key messages...
- winter storm warnings and advisories are in effect for system
and lake effect snow today into early thursday afternoon. see
the latest winter weather statement for more details. warning
areas could see as much as 6-12" of snow, and advisories in
the 3 to 6 inch range. wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are
expected, with gusts up to 45 mph possible near lake michigan.

- travel will become hazardous this afternoon into thursday
afternoon due to falling, blowing, and drifting snow,
particularly on e-w oriented roads.

- there is additional potential for accumulating system and
lake effect snow through the middle of next week, with much
colder temperatures.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 610 am est wed jan 14 2026

main update to the forecast for headline today-thursday was to
expand the warnings and advisories. high confidence in lake effect
occurring, with one or maybe two dominant bands forming at least for
a period. this was a tricky decision as there was still not good
agreement as to how this all unfolds, but the main reason for the
expansion was because several of the (00-06z) models strongly hint
at one more dominant bands that park over berrien/western cass, mi
(especially the far southwest corner) and st. joseph, in into
marshall/kosciusko counties. combined with wind gusts of 30-40 mph
(closer to 45 mph near lake mi) this afternoon/evening (and 25-35
mph potential overnight into thu), felt that there would be at least
enough travel impacts to justify the expansions. generally speaking,
went with 6-12" in the warning areas, and 3-6 inches for the
advisory areas.

the overall pattern from previous forecasts hasn`t changed in terms
of the upper low dropping into lower mi tonight and moving e-se from
there, and the upper level ridge build in behind it through the day
thursday. what has continued to vary has been the placement of one
or more dominant bands, part of which was discussed above. the other
potential scenario that stands out (like the 6-9z hrrr) is we get
the synoptic snow this morning, with lake effect developing through
the afternoon-with a more dominant band over berrien/cass/western
elkhart/st. joseph/berrien/marshall/western kosciusko counties
initially around 00z-3z that quickly migrates westward towards
starke/laporte overnight-then lingers there or slightly eastward
again through thursday (qpf through 21z even!). the hrrr has a
stronger/more eastward land breeze at night that really helps this
band shift west, however i`m suspicious that is being overdone
(given the stronger system flow). other models keep the flow more
persistently northwest and slightly stronger-so i kept the forecast
anchored further northeast than the hrrr may want to move the band.
the canadian/nam/rap have some variety of keeping the more dominant
band northeast initially (including over cass and into some of the
areas i expanded advisory/warning to), and have a slow or minimal
shift to the southwest where the band lingers over st.
joseph/marshall/kosciusko (west half) and elkhart (especially the
southwest corner) for a time before impacting laporte/stark
(especially north and east) and possibly fulton, in (no headline as
of right now...the highest qpf remains a bit north of there so i
didn`t have enough confidence for an advisory). what is concerning
about that is we could have a scenario where la porte (especially
southern la porte) and stark see much lower totals. if the hrrr (and
a few of the cams) are right--it would lean towards higher totals
for those counties. it would also mean that portions of
cass/elkhart/kosciusko could see a shorter duration of heavier snow
(the band being more transient), which would cut snow totals. by
thursday morning into the afternoon the wind shift to the w-sw
shifts the band eastward again and north-with qpf dwindling as
subsidence takes over. either way-travel will be impacted in areas
that see more snowfall-especially with the wind gusts causing
blowing and drifting through thursday (e-w oriented roads will be
worst). i did assume 20:1 ratios still given potential for
fracturing of flakes, but i could see periods where it`s higher (25-
30:1)--which would favor the greater snowfalls as well assuming
similar qpf. i should mention also that the snow won`t be confined
to one of the bands--it`s just where the better 1-2"/hr rates would
be if it does develop-so snow will be ongoing through the period.
definitely a challenging forecast! such is the nature of lake effect
snow. otherwise, temps in the morning here are around the upper 30s,
low 40s, and suspect any rain that occurs will quickly shift to snow
through the morning, especially in the northwest. the temps this
afternoon will drop into the 20s/low 30s, so wind chills will drop
into the single digits and teens. wind chills tonight will linger in
the single digits above/below zero, coldest in the northeast near
hillsdale, mi/fulton, oh.

beyond that we do have another low dropping in after a break in
precipitation thursday afternoon/evening, with at least 1-2 inches
of system snow through friday morning. additional waves move through
friday afternoon and then again through the weekend as the upper low
settles aloft. it will be much colder, particularly starting
saturday into the middle of the week. highs will only be in the
teens and low 20s, with lows in the single digits and low teens.
wind chills some nights could drop as low as 10 below zero. will add
greater detail regarding the upcoming active pattern/cold temps once
this lake effect event tapers down.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 633 am est wed jan 14 2026

strong cold front is currently approaching the area with a burst
of moderate snow, mvfr ceilings, and strong winds expected.
there will be a short lull in activity immediately behind this
front with a brief return to vfr possible. however, lake effect
snow will ramp up during the afternoon as colder air filters
into the area. greatest impacts by far at ksbn where heavy lake
effect snow is expected and gusts up to 35 kts will lead to
blowing snow. visibilities around 1/2sm are possible this
evening. there is still some uncertainty in the exact timing and
placement of the lake effect band but latest hi-res suggests
ksbn will likely be under the band for many hours this evening
and overnight. winds relax late tonight but lake effect snow
will likely not end until late thu morning. at kfwa, expect just
a brief window of lake effect snow showers during the late
afternoon before the single band organizes around ksbn this
evening and overnight, resulting in quiet/vfr conditions at
kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est /noon cst/ thursday for
inz005-012-116-216.
winter storm warning until 1 pm est /noon cst/ thursday for
inz014-103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter storm warning until 1 pm est thursday for miz078-177-
277.
marine...gale warning until 4 am est thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
613 am est wed jan 14 2026

.key messages...

- an arctic front brings snow showers and plummeting temperatures to
se michigan today. snowfall accumulations generally hold below an
inch today.

- a winter storm watch is in effect for huron and sanilac counties
as lake effect banding may produce snow accumulations over 6 inches.

- much colder late this week and into next weekend. thursday morning
wind chills reach negative single digits for most areas.

- periodic chances for snow will exist friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

arctic front on pace to sweep southeast across the area between 12z
and 15z this morning. some pockets of drizzle or very light rain
will precede the frontal passage. wind shift from southwest to
northwest with an increase magnitude and gustiness as much colder
air floods through the rest of the day. ascent within the immediate
wake of this front may afford some narrow higher intensity bands of
snow showers, offering brief disruption of visibility to ifr/mvfr. a
secondary period for a greater coverage of snow showers tied to the
trailing mid level during the mid-late afternoon period. there
remains potential for some form of light snow shower or flurries to
linger beyond 00z, as the cloud layer remains in a favorable
environment for snow growth. despite the drying arctic profile,
forecast will maintain a high degree of low cloud tonight at this
stage.

for dtw... strong cold front brings a wind shift to northwest near
15z, with a window for brief higher intensity snow showers late
morning. additional snow shower potential during the late day
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs aob 5000 feet today. medium tonight.

* high for snow as precipitation type through tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 433 am est wed jan 14 2026

discussion...

strong arctic front is making inroads across northern michigan at
issuance, and will dive south across lower michigan through the
morning. notable drop in temperature and dewpoint behind the front,
with temperature readings over northern lower mi in the upper 20s
compared to upper 30s locally. radar echoes upstream show scattered
snow showers behind the fropa as hydrometeors attempt to overcome
the dry arctic airmass. moisture quality will be a concern
throughout the day, with only the lowest 10.0 kft agl or so staying
saturated. highest rates for the daytime hours have started to trend
more toward the afternoon-early evening hours with the mid level
wave rather than the morning frontal passage. overall, a quick
dusting to inch of accumulation is possible by sunset and could lead
to some slick conditions for the evening commute as temperatures
fall into the upper teens this evening. breezy northwest flow also
develops post-front, with gusts around 30 mph today and tonight.

the mid level wave closes off as it drifts into lake huron tonight,
stalling its eastward progress until thursday morning. latest model
trends hold on to the wrap around moisture plume longer than
previous indications, keeping snow showers in play across all of se
michigan until the moisture plume vacates thursday morning.
additional minor accumulations remain possible overnight for the
broader se michigan footprint, before tapering off thursday morning.
exception to this is the thumb region, which remains in contention
for warning-level snowfall amounts by thursday morning. textbook
lake effect convergence banding emerges on the backside of the low,
connecting with moisture flux off of lake huron to bring a narrow
swath of 6+ inch potential to huron/sanilac counties. a winter storm
watch remains in effect as a result. there are a couple of factors
that make this particular event capable of warning-level snowfall:
1. cold thermal profiles are conducive for efficient microphysics
and high snow ratios, and 2. additional forcing (aside from pure
convergence) as vorticity lobes pivot around the low. strong
consideration was given to upgrading the winter storm watch, but the
scenario where this band is directed offshore is still a real
possibility. opted to keep the watch in tact to allow a better look
at observations through the day.

snow tapers off gradually from interior portions of the state to the
shoreline as subsidence takes hold. the main story thursday will be
much colder temperatures, with sub-zero wind chills expected to
start the day. temperatures moderate only into the upper teens to
low 20s which is a big difference from the mid-40s we saw yesterday.
this is followed by quick turnaround to another round of
accumulating snowfall friday as a clipper system impacts se
michigan. this system exhibits more synoptic support, with the main
area of snow being tied to a deep layer of moist isentropic
ascent/warm advection that arrives friday morning. thermal profiles
at the start of the event feature a roughly 10.0 kft isothermal
layer that falls right within the dendritic growth zone, although
this changes through the event as differential thermal advection
makes profiles much more convective. attm, conditions look to stay
sub-advisory friday with accumulations of 1-3 inches expected.

cold and snowy conditions then persist this weekend into early next
week as deep longwave troughing remains nearly stationary east of
the rockies. relentless flux of clipper systems out of alaska follow
almost identical paths as they carve southeast into the great lakes.
highest confidence item with these systems is several reinforcing
shots of arctic air, with the coldest temperatures expected early
next week with potential for wind chills to drop below zero degrees.
there is also high confidence in periods of accumulating snow
through the weekend-early next week, but with uncertainty in timing
and magnitude of each system. the resident arctic airmass keeps the
highly efficient dendritic growth zone within reach, meaning any of
these systems could grind out a few inches of accumulation even in
low qpf scenarios. this pattern continues through the entire long
term period.

marine...

an arctic cold front drops across the central great lakes this
morning with wind direction veering to nw and n through the day.
wind becomes gusty to around 25 to 30 knots with isolated gusts to
35 knot gales possible at times through tonight. there remains less
than a 30% probability for prolonged gales and no headlines are
anticipated. the gusty wind and inbound arctic air bring increasing
coverage of snow squalls and heavy freezing spray to lake huron, and
a heavy freezing spray warning remains in effect. winds speeds
steadily decrease thursday with a passing surface ridge axis, then
flip southerly by friday ahead of the next clipper system. this
system stalls in the vicinity through saturday, producing additional
snow showers as more arctic air arrives to the region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through thursday
morning for miz049-055.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 4 am est thursday for lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning from 11 am this morning to 1 pm est
thursday for lhz363-421-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......tf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.