Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 292327
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
727 pm edt sat aug 29 2026

.what has changed...
introduced a low chance of sprinkles/showers across lake
erie and a few northern counties tonight. better chances for
precipitation are focused across the northeast on sunday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) late season heat and humidity expected to return tuesday and
wednesday with heat index forecast in the upper 90s.

2) the active storm track will set up across the central and eastern
great lakes from sunday night through wednesday night, bringing a
chance of thunderstorms to mainly northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. chances of thunderstorms will expand inland on
thursday as a cold front pushes south.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will lift north sunday night ahead of the upper level
ridge which will expand into the region. high temperatures will
trend 3-5 degrees warmer on monday then continue to creep up tuesday
and wednesday as the upper level ridge becomes firmly established.
temperatures at 850mb will range from 20-23c with highs in northern
ohio in the lower 90s, with a few sites in nw ohio reaching the mid
90s. this is 10 or more degrees above normal for the beginning of
september. dewpoints also increase during this time frame into the
upper 60s which will push heat index values solidly into the mid and
upper 90s tuesday and potentially approaching 100 across the western
half of the area on wednesday. (heat index will be slightly
cooler in the lower 90s in nw pa). it is possible that a
portion of the area could need a heat advisory by tuesday or
wednesday but will also depend on if we have any thunderstorms
those days. in general confidence is increase that there will be
a heat threat early this week but some adjustment to temperatures
is still possible based on clouds and coverage of any
precipitation.

key message 2...
high pressure with a dry airmass is in place across the region
today before building to the mid-atlantic region overnight.
meanwhile mid-level moisture will be on the increase overnight
as shortwave energy traverses the great lakes region. while low
levels are generally expected to remain dry, models do not have
a very good handle on the southern extent of showers in illinois
this afternoon. while the precipitation across the western
great lakes is largely expected to dissipate, expect sufficient
moistening aloft to include a 20 percent chance of a shower
across lake erie or a few of our northern counties overnight,
which could just be in the form of sprinkles.

better chances for precipitation come sunday night as convection
over lower michigan favors a southeast trajectory towards northwest
pennsylvania ahead of the building ridge. the warm front will bisect
our northeastern counties sunday night before lifting north on
monday. there is some potential for locally heavy rain across mainly
northwest pennsylvania on sunday night with thunderstorms. after
that the ridge is expected to expand north on monday. this will
hopefully place the active storm track from the upper great lakes
towards new york but we will have to monitor the strength of the
building ridge on tuesday and wednesday. models generally in good
agreement of 700mb temperatures reaching 10c with a capping
inversion developing overhead. the next stronger piece of energy to
round or break down the upper level ridge is expected wednesday
night, pushing a weak cold front south into the area by
thursday. we will have to monitor the eventual break down of the
upper level ridge which could lead to strong thunderstorms for
a portion of the area on wednesday night or thursday.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
bkn-ovc fl200 continues, added tempo 5sm -shra with a warm
front for 2hr durations after 04z west to east. winds less than
12kts. sct-bkn cumulus develops with bkn-ovc mid level deck
sunday. more showers possible after 18z sunday will need to be
examined for next set of tafs. tsra potential on the lower side
sunday but non-zero.

outlook...non-vfr possible sunday night into monday with showers
and thunderstorms and again on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions will be quiet through the weekend.
high pressure is over the eastern great lakes today and will
drift eastward on sunday. a warm front will lift northward
across lake erie by sunday night and bring scattered showers
and storms. winds will generally be from the south to southwest
5 to 15 knots today through middle of next week and waves of 1
to 2 feet. marine headlines are not expected on the lake for the
next several days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...26
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 300024
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
824 pm edt sat aug 29 2026

.key messages...

- most locations will be dry into the middle of next week. a few
showers are possible across far northern indiana and southern
lower michigan tonight into sunday.

- heat and humidity increases into next week with afternoon heat indices
expected to reach well into the 90s for many. heat indices
may approach 100 degrees for portions of the area tuesday and
wednesday afternoons.

- slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive
for the second half of the upcoming week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 145 pm edt sat aug 29 2026

initial area of showers and thunderstorms in eastern ia moved
east and has been falling apart as it becomes orphaned from the
better low level flow (850 mb winds up to 50 kts at times).
additional convection has been forming behind it, generally
drifting in a se direction. over time cams show this area
weakening as the llj relaxes some and wave departs. the same
cams seem to suggest new develop not in ia but closer to the
area (eastern il/sw mi/nw in) later tonight as the llj begins to
shift somewhat and weak isentropic lift occurs ahead of a
slightly better moisture flux. will continue with slgt chc to
chc pops into sunday morning, but the vast majority of locations
will likely remain dry.

thereafter our rain chances will be dictated by the position of
the edge of a building upper level ridge from the south. sadly,
much like past weeks we will be on the northern fringe of the
ridge which could bring some chances for showers and storms mid
to late week as an upper level low tries to edge in but is
likely deflected ne. one difference this time around may be the
axis of best precip ends up north and we end up on the warmer
and more humid side, especially tuesday and wednesday. signals
point towards highs quite likely at or above 90 degrees with
afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. something
to keep in the back of your mind and monitor for now.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 817 pm edt sat aug 29 2026

latest radar imagery shows a band of light showers moving
southeast ward across the area. did mention for this in ksbn but
not really confident on these showers making it to kfwa as much
of this is drying before making it to the ground and is on a
downtrend in coverage. still a possibility of a light shower or
two for ksbn on sunday but confidence is low and have opted to
leave out of the taf as this time. otherwise, just expecting mid
and high clouds from upstream storms and southwesterly winds
becoming breezy after 18z sun with gusts up to around 20 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 300338
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1138 pm edt sat aug 29 2026

.key messages...

- pockets of light rain this evening become scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms late tonight and sunday morning.
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue sunday
afternoon into monday.

- severe storm intensity is not expected, however there is a chance
for locally heavy rainfall mainly along and north of i-69 from
late tonight through early monday.

- the weather pattern supports warmer temperatures and increased
humidity during the early to mid portion of next week, however with
high temperatures strongly dependent on coverage and duration of
lingering showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

an elevated warm front within a region of ample mid level moisture
has produced some high based showers across the area. these showers
will depart to the east by 06z. available guidance and regional
observations are supportive of vfr conditions prevailing through the
nighttime hours. an influx of moisture arriving late tonight within
a developing warm front will result in increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances during the morning. shower chances will
be greatest across fnt and mbs, with lower chances south. potential
increase in afternoon instability will support a chance of
convection sunday afternoon. current indications suggest the higher
probabilities near the warm front, targeting kfnt and kmbs.

d21/dtw convection...overall thunderstorm chances through the day
sunday will be under 30 percent.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 pm edt sat aug 29 2026

discussion...

another pleasant late august day under quickly thickening high clouds
is in progress for se mi as high pressure centered on the atlantic
coast extends back into the great lakes. the high pressure air mass
has carried temperatures on the mild side with low humidity over the
last few days. this begins to change tonight as a broad area of low
pressure developing across the plains increasingly becomes the
forecast concentration for the great lakes sunday through the early
week period.

first up is the mcs decaying nearby upstream this afternoon and the
potential for remnants surviving into lower mi this evening,
followed by a new round of nocturnal convection later tonight.
afternoon satellite and radar trends offer convincing evidence of
mcs dissipation, but also of a robust mcv produced as a result. this
wave is captured well by the range of deterministic models and is
projected to move into the area with a chance of carrying remnants
this far east or producing new scattered showers overhead this
evening. model depictions of the mid level theta-e ridge indicate
slightly improved potential toward the tri cities and northern thumb
followed by a period of subsidence trailing the mcv heading into the
post midnight hours. the tri cities and thumb, down toward the i-69
corridor, is also the area favored for another round of
showers/storms that move in from the midwest late tonight and sunday
morning. this is convection forced by the low level jet more nearby
to the west compared to this morning, from wi into western lower mi,
which then follows the 850 mb theta-e ridge inbound ahead of the
system warm front into central and se mi. the convective signal is
convincing in both href/refs ensemble mean qpf and in that from
deterministic runs as well due to the involvement of the larger
scale low pressure system. nbm rain probabilities are much improved
in this model cycle offering chance pops this evening trending to
likely/numerous late tonight and categorical/widespread sunday
morning north of metro detroit. no concerns for severe intensity
given the considerable west to east instability gradient, however
there is a low chance of localized heavy rainfall in the west to
east alignment of convective development and downstream propagation.

the same is true for sunday as low pressure moves toward the
sd/ia/mn border and the warm front extends eastward into southern
lower mi by sunday afternoon. the position of the warm front
maintains cloudy conditions all areas and showers again having
greater coverage with northward extent from metro detroit toward the
tri cities and northern thumb. href and refs mean sb and mu cape are
below 500 j/kg while mean pw approaches 2 inches through peak
heating, limiting convective potential to an additional chance for
locally heavy rain (see hydro below) sunday afternoon and sunday
night.

there was a slight edge toward model solutions moving the warm front
into the northern great lakes for a lengthy period of time monday
afternoon and tuesday, allowing a new round of heat and humidity to
build into the region. trends in today`s model cycle are less
favorable for full development of a warm sector into se mi during
this time. instead, model solutions suggest a flatter mid/upper level
ridge and faster westerly flow aloft over the great lakes leading to
quick progression of surface low pressure and arrival of the
trailing cold front. this scenario both shortens the residence time
of any potential heat and humidity while increasing the chance for
clouds and additional showers/storms as the front stalls until
perhaps wednesday.

marine...

high pressure has drifted eastward over much of the eastern seaboard
today as we now look west as the developing low pressure system and
associated fronts that will slowly move into the area. leading warm
front will lift toward lake michigan today with increasing clouds
and rain chances tonight through sunday. in addition, a cold front
will be drifting southward toward the northern great lakes adding to
the forcing which will drive precipitation chances. winds will
largely be from the south today and sunday with max gusts around 20
knots. winds turn more southeasterly on monday while remaining
mostly below 20 knots before turning westerly on tuesday.

hydrology...

forecast confidence is increasing on an active pattern of showers
and thunderstorms developing across central and southern lower
michigan from late tonight through the early week. the system
incorporates deep gulf moisture into clusters of thunderstorms that
generally have greater coverage along and north of the i-69 corridor
where rainfall totals are expected to average 0.5 to 1 inch from
sunday morning through monday morning. there is a chance for locally
higher totals where thunderstorms occur repeatedly over a shorter
time period, however these location and time details are unclear at
this point in the forecast. this general pattern raises the chance
for localized flooding of roads and poor drainage areas from early
sunday through early monday. the chance for additional showers and
thunderstorms also lingers later monday into tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......drk
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.