Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
933
fxus61 kcle 280612
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
212 am edt sun jun 28 2026

.what has changed...
light showers have expanded north in an arc from lorain to
youngstown late this afternoon. these showers will tend to
dissipate through approximately 7 pm while additional scattered
showers are expected across central ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) very hot and humid conditions are expected across the region
tuesday through friday. preparations should be made now to help
mitigate the effects of prolonged heat later this week.

2) chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the local area
friday and continue into the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a pattern change is in store to start the week as a warm front lifts
north on monday and the upper level ridge expands across the great
lakes region. an anomalously strong ridge is expected to develop
with 500mb heights of 594dm reaching detroit on tuesday and buffalo
on wednesday. some variability in timing shortwave energy trying to
suppress the ridge develops in the models by thursday, but overall
confidence is above normal in a stretch of high heat and humid
conditions in the tuesday to friday period. stay tuned for the
latest forecast information as a combination of heat advisories and
extreme heat warnings are likely. see the climate section below
for record highs next week.

the warming trend will get underway on monday as a warm front lifts
north. can`t rule out an isolated shower near or north of the toledo
with the front monday morning but confidence was not high enough to
include in the forecast yet. after that time, southerly flow returns
with warm advection pushing 925mb temperatures of up to 26c in
northwest ohio. with dewpoints reaching the low 70s on monday in
western ohio, heat index values may reach or exceed 100 degrees
along the i-75 corridor. eastern portions of the forecast area will
only experience slightly above normal temperatures on monday with
lower humidity. the heat really becomes established across most of
the area on tuesday as highs reach or exceed 90 with mid to upper
90s in nw ohio and extending east to cleveland. the heat will become
more oppressive as we experience consecutive days in the 90s through
at least thursday and overnight lows that remain warm, especially
closer to lake erie.

a strong capping inversion is expected to be in place with 700mb
temperatures of 10c or more through thursday. with generally weak
flow, lake breezes are likely to develop and keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler along the lakeshore east of cleveland. not out of the
question to see an isolated thunderstorm or two along the lake
breeze by thursday. chances of thunderstorms trend upwards by friday
as moisture increases into the region which could impact
temperatures.

key message 2...
confidence in pattern evolution towards the end of the week is
low but generally shows the upper level ridge starting to be
suppressed to the south. this will likely result in an increase
in moisture and scattered showers and thunderstorms heading
into the holiday weekend. timing and favored placement will need
to refined over the coming days.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
there is a divide with vfr to the north and non-vfr to the south
across the airspace early this morning. with moisture trapped
close to the surface and some of the mid-level clouds eroding,
expecting a mix of fog/mist and low stratus to start developing
across portions central ohio and expand northward through the
night. currently, some mvfr ceilings are present at kmfd, kcak,
and kyng, but suspect that visibility will start to fall over
the next several hours and the low stratus will low to ifr and
perhaps lifr levels. for ktol, kcle, and keri, suspect that the
dry northeast flow will prevent some of these lower ceilings and
visibility to reach these terminals. high pressure will continue
to build into the region and low visibility and ceilings will
mix out through the day. all terminals will improve to vfr with
light northeast flow. some pop up showers are possible around
kcak and kyng this afternoon but confidence is too low to
include in a taf.

outlook...vfr.

&&

.marine...
weak low pressure moves to the south of lake erie today as high
pressure will build in across the region this evening from the
north. conditions across the lake will be rather quiet for the next
several days with winds out of the northeast at around 10 knots,
weakening to 5-10 knots tonight with the high building in. monday
evening, a warm front will move north across the region and winds
will shift to be out of the south-southwest and increase to around
10 knots. high pressure builds into the region next week with quiet
conditions expected at this time.

&&

.climate...
hotter and more humid weather is expected this monday through friday.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sefcovic
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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884
fxus63 kiwx 280619
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
219 am edt sun jun 28 2026

.key messages...

- isolated (15-20%) showers early this morning mainly
along/south of route 24.

- dangerous heat and humidity starting monday as heat indices
climb above 100 degrees each afternoon with little cooling at
night. an extreme heat watch is in effect.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 217 am edt sun jun 28 2026

isolated showers early this morning in the vicinity of our persistent
stationary front bisecting central-northern indiana. an amplifying
upper-level ridge finally kicks this front out of the area this
afternoon. this ridge pushes highs into the mid-80s with dew points
rising into the 70s south of us 30. as mentioned in the preceding
forecast discussion, an mcs early this morning is forecast to move
into minnesota as the day progresses. models are in fair agreement
that this mcs will decay prior to reaching indiana near or just
before sunset. we`ll carry on with the dry forecast as inherited
owing in part to a continued steady, stable easterly wind which has
kept showers largely at bay since friday.

for this morning, finally opted to issue a extreme heat watch for
the upcoming days of heat. despite in-house model blend biases, when
using other blends of guidance for temperature and dew points, highs
in the 90s and heat indicies of 100-105 offer high enough
confidence in hazardous heat monday through at least thursday to
warrant a watch. given the duration of these triple-digit heat
indicies, we have the flexibility to consider an extreme heat
warning in place of daily advisories (105 heat index vs 100 heat
index). given the preceding two weeks of below-normal
temperatures and a general absence of heat so far this summer, a
100 heat index vs 105 heat index over four days seems to be
splitting hairs. anyway, extreme heat watch gets the ball
rolling.

the 594dm ridge is poised to be overhead tuesday and wednesday,
marking the peak of this heat wave. thursday night and moreso
friday, the ridge shows signs of weakening in the guidance as a
shortwave emerges from the four corners and the ridge centroid favors
the appalachians. this would allow gulf moisture to stream poleward
perhaps allowing for an active period of showers and thunderstorms
to brew late-week. while the 594dm ridge become displaced late-week,
marking an end to "extreme heat" the overall upper air pattern
characterized by central us ridging looks to keep summer heat in
place through the holiday weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1234 am edt sun jun 28 2026

no significant changes with this round of tafs. pesky frontal
boundary to our south remains the primary item on interest and
still looks to support 5sm br later this morning at kfwa.
medium- high confidence on ksbn remaining vfr, through ovc040
leaves very little wiggle room. this front becomes displaced
later this afternoon as an upper level ridge builds in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat watch from monday afternoon through thursday
evening for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat watch from monday afternoon through thursday
evening for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat watch from monday afternoon through thursday
evening for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
047
fxus63 kdtx 280654
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
254 am edt sun jun 28 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid conditions arrive monday with highs in the low-mid
90s and heat indices nearing 100 degrees.

- hottest conditions expected tuesday through friday with potential
for highs to reach 100 degrees and heat indices in excess of 105 degrees.
there will be little nighttime relief with lows in the mid 70s.

- low thunderstorm chances for most of the work week, then increasing
friday into the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...

high amplitude large scale upper level pattern in the early stage of
evolution heading into the back half of the weekend. satellite and
upper air analysis depicting the sizable corridor of height falls
ongoing throughout the western conus, with geopotential heights
responding accordingly downstream with steady growth with northward
extent through time. generally benign weather conditions to finish
off the weekend period, as forecast attention fixates on the looming
heat wave set to grip the region next week as this pattern becomes
firmly entrenched. the noted increase in mean thicknesses today as
upper heights begin to climb will effectively moderate the resident
thermal profile, despite a lack of more meaningful warm air
advection as low level flow remains from the east/southeast. highs
in the low to mid 80s.

ridge axis anchored off a 594 dam upper level high centered to the
south will take residence starting monday. there remains a portion
of the model solution space that allows a weak mid level wave to
break off the western upper trough and shear across the advancing
ridge periphery and associated moisture/thermal gradient tonight
into early monday. the projected trajectory from portions of ne wi
into central/northern mi will present a limited opportunity for a
disorganized, lower coverage of convection to survive into the area.
the forecast simply highlights a lower end mention over the far
north. otherwise, poor convective signal exists for the possibility
of a diurnally enhanced window of convective development monday as
the deeper moisture plume makes progressive inroads with time.
profile likely capped just enough to preclude a greater concern. the
uptick in humidity as dewpoints climb above 70 degrees will bring
heat indices into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees by late in the
day /highest west/. initial heat headline decision point here with a
at least a portion of the forecast area likely peaking at advisory
level but not yet at warning level /105 or greater heat index/. for
simplicity, will elect to defer a decision to the forecast package
later today to afford an opportunity to review and potentially
provide an additional watch headline decision for the mid-week
period at the same time /see below/.

peak in heat magnitude across an extended window from tuesday
through at least thursday as the sprawling high amplitude ridge
engulfs the region. the forecast continues to call for high
temperatures solidly in the mid to upper 90s, with a heat index in
excess of 105 degrees each day with a 70+ dewpoint in residence.
watch/warning headlines anticipated with consideration given to
cumulative heat stress generated from a multi-day event and
factoring in an elevated overnight low temperature that offers
little relief. little evidence at this stage to suggest convective
episodes will prove more problematic in realizing projected highs,
likely owing to the strength of the underlying subsidence and
disconnect from the storm track held to the northwest given the
ridge positioning/amplitude. this could still change and will
continue to monitor.

hot and humid conditions likely persist friday into the upcoming
holiday weekend, but with some potential for the governing upper
ridge to gradually dampen with time and offer a slight downgrade in
both temperature and heat index relative to earlier in the period.
this also offers greater opportunity for convective activity to
spill into the region from upstream and/or emerge locally as
forced/free ascent potentially proves more attainable.

&&

.marine...

dominate area of high pressure will hold over the region into monday
resulting in light northeasterly winds generally under 15 knots
through that time. a warm front will then lift north through the
region on monday causing winds to increase and flip around to the
southeast. winds continue veering to the southwest overnight into
tuesday behind the warm front bringing very warm air into the region
for next week. there will also be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for northern lake huron monday as the front lifts
north. gradient will increase but question remains how much wind
will reach the waters in a very stable airmass.

&&

.climate...

.daily records for the upcoming week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 96 (1933) 77 (1945)
tue june 30 96 (1931) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1934) 75 (1945)
tue june 30 98 (1933) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1971) 75 (1971)
tue june 30 99 (1964) 77 (2018)
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1141 pm edt sat jun 27 2026

aviation...

region remains under the influence of northern great lakes high
pressure tonight into sunday maintaining light easterly winds and
vfr conditions. diurnal cu redevelops sunday morning with cirrus
streaming overhead through the day.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast through sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft sunday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......drk
climate......mv
aviation.....kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.