Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
478
fxus61 kcle 031956
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
256 pm est tue mar 3 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing potential in patchy fog across eastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania for wednesday morning. the rest of the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) potential for patchy, dense fog tomorrow morning. highest
probability will be along and east of the i-71 corridor.

2) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely throughout
the week. temperatures will continue to be above average with highs
in the mid to upper 60s for the second half of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a stationary front will be situated to the south of the region
across the ohio river valley. temperatures will stay cooler due to
being on the north side of the boundary along with the light
precipitation across the region and the ample cloud cover. with the
precipitation from this morning and afternoon, the low levels will
stay fairly saturated. an inversion will also be in place across the
region and will allow for patchy fog to form, mainly across eastern
ohio into northwestern pennsylvania. fog may last through the mid
morning until temperatures begin to rise and the low levels become
less saturated.

key message 2...
light precipitation will continue through this evening, primarily
for areas along and south of us 30 due to the wavering stationary
front. most precipitation will end as the front drifts to the south
overnight, though a few lingering showers will still be possible in
the southern tier of counties. the front will then lift north across
the region as a warm front late wednesday night into early thursday
with widespread precipitation expected. ahead of the cold front and
low pressure system moving through early friday morning, qpf totals
will reach around 0.5-1.0" across much of the region with totals
near 1.5" possible for the southern half of the cwa. pw values
across the region are currently forecast to be around 1.00-1.20"
which sit well above the 90th percentile for early march. given the
region has been well below average on precipitation for the past
several months, flooding shouldn`t be too much of a concern since
the area should be able to handle that amount of precipitation.
though there may be a few brief river/stream responses, generally in
the southern counties given the qpf for the area. a few
thunderstorms are also possible on thursday that could bring
isolated heavier precipitation.

there will be a brief dry period for most of the day on friday
before another low pressure system enters the region late that
evening. not anticipating as much precipitation with this system as
it will be fairly quick moving with the cold front out of the area
by late saturday night. though, there will be a chance for strong to
severe storms ahead of and with the cold front as temperatures will
rise into the upper 60s to low 70s generating some instability
across the region. will be a time frame to monitor as the week
progresses.

with the temperatures, an upper level ridge will continue to build
across the eastern conus that will support rising temperatures
throughout the week. highs on wednesday will be in the upper 40s to
mid 50s, then jump into the mid 60s for the remainder of the week.
the warmest day of the week is looking to be on saturday with highs
possibly reaching into the low 70s.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
a small area of clearing has developed in the southeastern part
of the local area which could briefly result in a period of vfr
conditions from kmfd to kyng this afternoon. otherwise, a mixed
bag of sub-vfr conditions are expected in
drizzle/mist/showers/low ceilings through the majority of the
taf period. the worst conditions will likely occur in widespread
low stratus and patchy to areas of fog (possibly dense across ne
oh/nw pa) for a period this evening and again late tonight into
wednesday morning.

winds will largely be out of the south/southwest at 10 knots or
less this afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight.
winds increase slightly and become more easterly early wednesday
morning.

outlook...non-vfr likely continues into tuesday night with rain
showers or drizzle. occasional periods of rain late wednesday
through saturday will likely bring additional non-vfr
conditions.

&&

.marine...
east to northeast winds under 10 knots will continue over lake
erie through thursday morning. winds will increase a bit as a
warm front approaches from the south thursday afternoon and
thursday evening with flow becoming south/southeast on friday.
southwest winds will develop and increase to 15 to 25 knots
saturday before diminishing towards the end of the weekend.
lake erie is still mostly ice covered, but above normal
temperatures will allow ice coverage to decay over the next
several days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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570
fxus63 kiwx 031848
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
148 pm est tue mar 3 2026

.key messages...

- much above normal temperatures expected over the next 7 days,
warmest on friday and saturday with highs in the 70s.

- rain chances exist south of us-30 into wednesday (greatest
south of us-24) with better chances areawide wednesday night
into thursday.

- showers and some thunderstorms are expected friday into
saturday, with severe storms likely remaining west of the
area. locally heavy rain is possible.

- hydro concerns look to be fairly limited as the heaviest
amounts remain south of the area. some rivers will rise and
could reach action stage over the weekend into next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 139 pm est tue mar 3 2026

a frontal boundary will attempt to edge north somewhat across
portions of central indiana over the next 12 to 24 hours, then begin
to surge further north as a weak disturbance ejects towards the ne,
reaching the area later wed into thu with a sfc reflection passing
overhead. until this wave approaches a tight northern gradient will
continue in multiple rounds of showers and even some thunderstorms
favoring either side of and south of the i-70 corridor in central
in. as mentioned in the morning update, pops were trimmed southward
somewhat and this trend continues into wednesday in line with model
guidance. questions do remain as to if enough weak low level lift
and low level saturation could result in pockets of drizzle once
again until deeper moisture arrives. also models seem rather
aggressive on clearing cloud out, especially north despite a lack of
strong subsidence or dry air below 850 mb. have left any drizzle
mention out, but did increase cloud cover. as the wave moves in
wednesday night into thursday, rain chances will increase across the
entire area with on the order of 0.25" (nw) to possibly up to 0.75"
(se) of rainfall occurring. the ground should be quite receptive to
the light to moderate nature of this, with only a limited response
in rivers for this round.

a lull in the rain is expected in the wake of the mid week system as
an elongated trough lingers to our west with a series of
disturbances ejecting from it into the plains and western great
lakes. this will set the stage for the front to finally push north
later thursday into friday with much above normal temperatures
arriving as well increasing moisture. chances for strong to severe
thunderstorms will take shape to our south and west, with the spc
dy4 severe outlook depicting a 15% severe threat just to our west in
portions of il and southern wi for friday afternoon and evening.
while i suspect in coming outlooks nw portions of our area could end
up in a marginal risk, the timing of late fri evening into the
overnight hours along and ahead of the cold front leads to a lower
risk of severe at this point.

the front will move across the area, but the overall wave will be
quickly dampening as the main energy remains across the sw u.s. some
weaker disturbances may drop south into the area into early next
week with small rain chances. temperatures will "cool" back into the
50s and 60s (still well above normal).


&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1225 pm est tue mar 3 2026

a baroclinic zone with areas of high pressure to the north and waves
of low pressure riding along it will be the weather-maker between
today and the weekend. surges of warm/moist air northward increase
chances for rain and drizzle, however, low level dryness will cut
into those chances from time to time. low level moisture in rap time
sections continues from now until early wed morning. am not entirely
convinced drizzle continues given waning lift this afternoon, but
cannot rule it out. this plays a role in mvfr cigs that appear to
drop into ifr and potentially lifr overnight. aviation guidance
seems to moderate cigs wednesday morning potentially as waa
commences, but there is some uncertainty around if those low cigs
remain or moderate. rain probably holds off until the
afternoon/evening wed.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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489
fxus63 kdtx 032013
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
313 pm est tue mar 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather tonight and wednesday. areas of fog late tonight and
wednesday morning.

- showers increase coverage late wednesday night and continue
thursday.

- a warming trend is on schedule this week with temperatures around
50 wednesday and thursday, 50s to near 60 friday, and well into the
60s saturday. expect colder readings near the huron and erie
shorelines.

- showers become likely again friday and saturday with a chance of
thunderstorms as a front moves across the region.

&&

.discussion...

the sheared mid level wave is exiting eastward after producing a
stray sprinkle and patchy drizzle toward the ohio border. dry air in
the 850-700 mb layer was otherwise a formidable limiting factor on
the northern fringe of the ohio valley frontal zone.

passage of the mid level wave leads to farther south consolidation
of the ohio valley frontal zone tonight, and slight reinforcement of
surface high pressure over lower mi by wednesday morning. this
promotes a decreasing cloud trend this evening and a favorable fog
setup late tonight through early morning. clear sky and light wind
allow accelerated radiational cooling after midnight leading to
areas of fog as temperatures approach lows in the mid to upper 20s.
locations farther south and east are favored for greater
coverage/density due to shoreline proximity and/or higher
observations of surface td this afternoon. lingering surface high
pressure then helps dry weather hold with at least partly sunny
skies through the bulk of the afternoon. the corresponding
temperature boost makes guidance readings in the upper 40s to lower
50s reachable, although with cooler conditions near the huron/erie
shorelines due to light east wind.

the next low pressure system latches on to the ohio valley front and
brings our next round of precipitation wednesday night and thursday.
this is the southern stream system in split flow aloft currently
exiting the four corners into the southern plains today on a mid ms
valley track wednesday night. the 500 mb circulation gains some
strength in model depictions while on a transition from positive to
more neutral tilt and as deep sw flow intensifies out ahead of the
system. this activates strong moisture transport through the mid
levels of the leading frontal zone and into lower mi late wednesday
night and thursday morning. later onset farther north gives time for
temperatures to rise above freezing leaving just a brief mention of
light freezing rain in a small area of northern bay and huron
counties. otherwise, it`s an all rain scenario for the rest of se mi
until the system moves eastward thursday evening.

the peak of this week`s warming trend arrives friday and saturday,
more so saturday as the next low pressure system tracks through the
midwest and northern great lakes. friday, the surface low is still
too far south to help the ohio valley warm front overcome great
lakes opposition to northward movement into lower mi. slower timing
and the likelihood of rain showers suggests leaning the forecast
toward the cooler 50s end of the guidance range. a temperature surge
well into the 60s is more likely saturday as the surface low reaches
upper mi and the warm sector more fully spreads over lower mi. this
is also the day carrying the best thunderstorm prospects as the
trailing cold front moves across the region during the day. longer
range model solutions and associated temperatures guidance indicate
just slightly cooler air with a stray shower sunday.

&&

.marine...

a ridge of high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient over the
great lakes tonight into wednesday, with generally light and
variable winds. dry weather continues apart from some light showers
near lake erie this afternoon. low pressure tracking along a frontal
boundary into the southern great lakes on thursday brings the next
window for widespread showers as well as increasing east-northeast
wind over lake huron to 15 to 20 kt. drier conditions with weaker
wind on friday, then another low tracks into the great lakes friday
night into saturday to bring showers, thunderstorms, and stronger
southerly flow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1238 pm est tue mar 3 2026

aviation...

light south flow has slowly advected low-level moisture across
southern michigan with continued progression expected through the
remaining afternoon hours. mvfr cigs are expected to make it close
to the kfnt terminal, with some uncertainty regarding if it will
make it across the terminal or stay just shy of it to the south.
latest model trends bring it to this area between 19-21z.
regardless, low-level flow to then flip north-northwest, which will
advect cloud cover back to the south while scouring out coverage
tonight. generally clear skies will then lead to fog concerns with
radiational cooling. some localized denser fog will be possible
closer to the metro terminals, tied to the marine layer.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today through the early
evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......tf
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.