Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
611 am edt sat oct 3 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather is favored across the area through much of next
week. temperatures will be slightly below normal monday and
tuesday and patchy frost is possible monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will be over the area today with most sunny skies
and dry weather expected. the high will drift northeast tonight,
allowing a cold front to move east across the area on
sunday. guidance generally favors a dry frontal passage given
insufficient mid-level moisture, although isolated showers
can`t be completely ruled out across portions of nw pa
immediately along the cold front sunday evening.

from there, canadian high pressure will build over the region
and maintain influence as it drifts east across the northeastern
conus through at least the middle of next week. this will foster
dry weather and cooler temperatures monday and tuesday. high
temps will be in the low to mid 60s monday and tuesday, although
temperatures will begin to recover on wednesday as warm air
advection develops on the back side of the high. overnight lows
will be in the 40s across most of the area starting tonight with
the coolest temperatures expected with the most efficient
radiational cooling monday and tuesday nights. temps will be
especially chilly monday night, when widespread lower 40s and
upper 30s are expected. this will introduce potential for patchy
to areas of frost development late monday into early tuesday,
best chance across typical cold spots in interior ne oh and nw
pa. isolated instances of frost are possible tuesday night,
although temperatures will be slightly warmer so any frost would
be limited to sheltered areas in valleys.

isolated rain chances may return late next week as the next cold
front moves across the area, but dry weather is likely due to
ample low to mid-level dry air.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr through the period. winds northeasterly 5 to 10 knots
through tonight.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected into early next week.

&&

.marine...
winds have diminished below 20 knots and waves have subsided
below 4 feet so will let the small craft advisory expire at 4
am. winds will be out of the northeast at 10 to 15 knots today,
which could produce marginally choppy conditions in the
nearshore zones of the central basin. winds will shift to the
southeast and diminish below 10 knots tonight before becoming
more westerly sunday. the next chance of small craft advisory
conditions will arrive as northwest winds increase behind a cold
front sunday night into monday. expect winds to diminish monday
night with light and variable flow anticipated over lake erie
on tuesday. by wednesday morning, winds should become offshore
and increase.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
628 am edt sat oct 3 2026

.key messages...

- primarily dry conditions expected for the coming week.

- cool on saturday with highs in the 60s. trending slightly
warmer sunday.

- very crisp tuesday morning with lows in the 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 240 am edt sat oct 3 2026

much cooler this morning with clear skies and light northerly
winds allowing for ideal radiational cooling. dew points in the
low to mid 40s across the area will keep lows close to these
values. some patchy mist/fog will be possible but should remain
near surface and the light winds will help to mix drier air
keeping any mist/fog very localized.

highs today with mostly sunny skies will again be in the mid
60s. lows tonight will run a degree or two cooler with slightly
drier air in place, however a weak trough moving eastward into
the region will allow for increased waa ahead of the upper level
troughing and highs on sunday will be warmer with highs slightly
warmer getting into the lower 70s across the area. in the wake
of the weak disturbance a northwesterly to zonal flow will
return across the region with synoptic cooling returning, lows
monday morning back into the low to mid 40s and highs on monday
only in the low to mid 60s. this pattern also brings a shot of
drier airmass into the region and will bring a crisp morning on
tuesday with lows in the mid to upper 30s, brrrrrrr. should make
for good sleeping weather, may also want to plan on protecting
any very temperature sensitive plants/animals out of an
abundance of caution. still thinking that some isolated frost
on more elevated surfaces will be possible but with still very
moist and warm soils should keep any frost development at bay.
will continue to keep an eye on this situation. with a more
northwesterly flow into the later part of the week and slightly
higher synoptic heights arriving dry conditions look to continue
with slight warming into the end of the week when highs
wednesday and onward into the 70s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 628 am edt sat oct 3 2026

vfr conditions and light northerly winds expected through this
taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
644 am edt sat oct 3 2026

.key messages...

- a pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s today and
around 70 degrees on sunday. a low chance of showers late tonight
into sunday, mainly north of m-59.

- dry weather continues early next week, with potential for frost
early tuesday morning as temperatures look to drop into the mid
30s.

&&

.aviation...

broad upper level confluence aloft will support surface high
pressure throughout the period. a strong signal exists for deep
column stability between 3.5 and 13.5 kft agl. remnant moisture and
saturation at the top of the mixed layer from yesterday did sustain
some cloud overnight. have seen that thin out while advecting along
anticyclonically this morning. suspect that some boundary layer
cloud development will again occur late this morning and afternoon.
surface winds will emerge out of the southeast today.


d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast this period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 310 am edt sat oct 3 2026

discussion...

good subsidence and dry mid levels (a 48 c dew pt depression at 700
mb per the 00z raob) are in place this morning over southeast
michigan, with expansive high pressure in control of the great lakes
region. transient low clouds seen traversing through southeast
michigan, as northerly flow off lake huron moistens the low levels.
slow return easterly flow around the departing high on saturday will
likely facilitate at least scattered cu field, helping to hold temps
in the mid 60s, as 925 mb temps progged to reach 11 c.

a shortwave entering the northern plains early this morning is on
track to move through southeast michigan 12-16z sunday. moisture is
lacking, as the 850 mb moisture gradient/theta-e remains along the
ohio river. the front will have a narrowing/weakening moisture axis
coming out of the central plains/midwest; however, it remains
supportive of low chance/scattered pops. chances will be highest
over northern half of the cwa, closer to the mid level cold pool (-
18 c at 500 mb), with several hires solutions indicating light
showers in the 8-15z window with the wave of isentropic ascent. the
actual cold front/trough does not move through until late in the
day, where local probabilistic guidance also suggests a low chance
of showers around saginaw bay.

model guidance (euro/cmc) trends to close out the weekend into early
next week are for a more with amplified northern-stream trough to
swing through the great lakes region into new england on monday,
with the parent 500 mb closed low over quebec. this leads to 850 mb
temps temps progged to reach 0 to 2 c monday morning, setting us up
for a cold/frost night monday night with center of high pressure
arriving over southeast michigan around midnight. warm advection
high clouds with the strong warm front over the western great lakes
looks to be the only potential hindrance to temps falling into the
mid 30s.

marine...

transient high pressure passes over the central great lakes this
morning, promoting light wind and waves that persist into this
evening. the high departs to the east tonight, then a low pressure
system will track just north of lake superior through sunday. this
brings an uptick in southerly flow after midnight with a chance of
light showers across lake huron through sunday. wind then veers to
northwest by late in the day as the cold front passes through, with
increasing gustiness expected sunday night. gusts to around 30 kt
will be likely across northern lake huron while gusts hold in the 20
to 25 kt range farther south. this post-frontal gustiness continues
through the day monday with model guidance indicating less than a
20% probability for gales across northern lake huron. wind magnitude
subsides by tuesday morning as the next area of high pressure passes
through.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.