Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
721
fxus61 kcle 171445
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
945 am est sat jan 17 2026

.what has changed...
there is the potential for a few heavier snow showers or
squalls along and just ahead of a cold front later today. the
potential for heavy lake effect snow has increased for parts of
far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania monday into
tuesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered light snow showers are expected through this evening.
isolated snow squalls are possible today along and ahead of the
approaching cold front, which could briefly create hazardous
travel conditions.

2) a prolonged period of frigid weather is expected tonight
through tuesday night with highs in the 10s and lows in the
single digits. dangerous wind chills as low as -20f are possible
monday into tuesday.

3) scattered snow showers are possible early next week, with a
chance for more impactful lake effect snow monday into tuesday
across far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. confidence
in the lake effect is medium at this time.

&&

.discussion...

update...
most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. however, increased pop`s through this early
evening to account for the ongoing precip banding along and
ahead of the e`ward-moving cold front. at the surface, this
front was roughly located along a huron to marion, oh line as of
9:45 am est this morning. the surface cold front is expected to
exit the rest of our cwa by 5 pm this evening, give or take one
hour. convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold front
will release weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km agl
and result in strong/maximized ascent at a cloud temperature
near -8c to -10c as surface wet-bulb temperatures hover near
0c. thus, expect steady to heavy snow and graupel showers along
the front. light snow showers related to moist isentropic
ascent aloft remain possible ahead of the front, while light
snow showers are also possible for up to several hours behind
the surface cold front passage and will be associated with
convergence/moist ascent along the upper-reaches of the front.
fresh snow accumulations today are expected to be 2" or less.
greatest amounts are expected in the higher terrain of nw pa,
where a somewhat colder environment should allow snow to
accumulate more easily.

key message 1...
a low pressure system is currently tracking through the upper
great lakes today. the first of a couple cold fronts will push
through the region today. scattered light snow showers are
expected off and on today ahead of the cold front. there is
some potential for isolated heaver snow showers or brief
squalls along and ahead of the approaching cold front. these
brief heavy burst of snow could briefly create hazardous travel
conditions. temperatures ahead of the cold front will be
relatively milder in the lower to middle 30s before temperatures
fall behind the frontal passage. any snowfall today will be
light an inch or less.

key message 2...
a prolonged period of very cold weather is expected to start
tonight and last through tuesday night. the first of a couple
cold fronts will move through later tonight. temperatures
tonight will drop into the lower teens. temperatures on sunday
will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. another stronger cold
front with an arctic airmass behind it will move across the
region late sunday night into monday. high temperatures on
monday will be in the teens to near 20 degrees. overnight low
temperatures monday night into tuesday morning will be near or
slightly below zero. high temperatures on tuesday will be in the
lower to middle teens. overnight low temperatures tuesday night
will be back down in the single digits to lower teens. more
importantly, there will be dangerous wind chills of -10f to -20f
monday into tuesday. a cold weather advisory will likely be
needed to highlight this threat of dangerous cold weather.

key message 3...
scattered snow showers will be possible sunday night through
monday night areawide. the potential for accumulating and more
impactful heavy lake effect snow is increasing for far
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania monday into tuesday.
initially the development of this lake effect snow event will
be towards southwestern new york. but as the low level flow
becomes more westerly over lake erie, this lake effect snow
potential will likely drift into northwest pennsylvania and far
northeast ohio monday through tuesday. there may be the
potential for heavy lake effect snow and forecast confidence is
medium at this time. if forecast confidence continues to
increase, a winter storm watch for lake effect snow may be
needed to parts of nwpa and maybe far neoh. another storm system
and low pressure system may track across the great lakes region
during the middle of next week, wednesday into thursday with
additional chances for snow showers areawide and lake effect
snow for the primary snowbelt.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
mainly mvfr and ifr across the taf sites this morning,
associated with low ceilings, though the exception is a narrow
snow band resulting in brief ifr vsbys across the eastern taf
sites. otherwise, attention turns back towards the west later
this morning and afternoon as a cold front moves east through
the area. scattered snow showers will develop along the front,
resulting in brief ifr vsbys reflected by tempo groups.
conditions will improve to vfr from west to east by later this
afternoon and evening.

winds are generally out of the south this morning, 10 to 12
knots. winds will shift towards the southwest behind a cold
front later this morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots possible. winds will subside to around 10
knots following sunset and remain out of the southwest.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers sunday night into monday.
non- vfr may linger in lake effect snow across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania tuesday through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
ice coverage continues to expand across the western basin of
lake erie. hazardous marine conditions across the central and
eastern basins will persist into next week as multiple systems
move across the great lakes.

confidence is increasing for a combination of gales and freezing
spray monday into tuesday across the central and eastern basin
of lake erie as a clipper slides east through the great lakes,
ushering in west to southwest winds of 30 to 35 knots. in
addition, this system will extend an arctic front across the
region, with lake air temperatures over ice- free areas expected
to drop into the low teens. if trends continue, a gale watch
appears likely in the next forecast cycle.

following this system, southwest winds will remain elevated,
around 25 knots, into wednesday. winds should gradually subside
to 20 knots or less and begin to favor a west direction by
thursday

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
monday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77/jaszka
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 171538
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1038 am est sat jan 17 2026

.key messages...
- additional isolated to scattered snow showers are possible
early this morning, but little to no snow accumulation is
expected.

- lake effect snow chances will increase again later saturday
afternoon into saturday night with some light snow
accumulations possible.

- much colder temperatures are in store for the weekend with
another clipper system bringing renewed light snow and lake
effect snow chances sunday into monday.

- dangerous wind chills around 15 below zero are expected both
sunday night and monday night.

&&

.update...
issued at 1028 am est sat jan 17 2026

the local area is situated between two more active short wave
patterns this morning. a stronger upper level trough across the
quad cities area will shift east across northern indiana this
evening, while a sheared vort max associated with strong upper
jet streak resides across the ohio valley. some drier mid level
air has advected across much of northern in/southern lower
mi/nw ohio this morning, leaving lingering moisture fairly
shallow and limited. low level caa, steep low level lapse rates,
and some forcing from these disturbances could continue to
yield some flurries, but no accumulation is expected this
afternoon. better chances of snow showers still appear to be
across favored westerly flow lake effect areas this evening as
some better moisture recovery wraps through weakening eastward
tracking deformation zone with the quad cities upper trough.
strong caa will limit temp response this afternoon with
continued dropping temps across the east, and perhaps only a few
degrees of recovery to the upper teens across nw indiana where
temps have dipped into the mid teens.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 311 am est sat jan 17 2026

a large sprawling upper troughing will be maintained across the area
between this weekend and early next week. underneath it, we`ll
continue to look for passing shortwaves to identify potential for
precipitation and subtle mid level ridging to identify dry periods.

as a cold front moves through early this morning, continued
scattered snow showers also move through. low level lapse rates (0-3
km) even at 4z last night were still around 7-7.5c west of i-69 and
were also maintained by some large scale ascent and vort maxes/f-gen
areas moving through in the flow. these are on track to move into nw
oh by 10z or so this morning and should depart that area before
midday. given these showers` scattered nature and their general
weakness as well as temps right around freezing, little if any snow
accumulation is expected.

behind this area of showers, an area of mid level deformation
pinwheels southeast through the tear drop of lake mi today into
tonight. that area of deformation eventually folds into the area of
vorticity southeast of the forecast area into tonight. however, as
it does so, the remaining low level moisture pairs with theta-e
instability and low level convergence in the vicinity of berrien
county, mi along with southwest winds to continue to allow for lake
enhancement. low level inversions up to around 4 kft and delta t
values between 15 and 20c indicate the weak environment for lake
effect snow even with surface temperatures in the teens f. 1 to
3 inches appears most likely in berrien county, mi through
tonight.

trajectories turn more southerly on sunday and the low level
moisture dries out along with a weakening of the theta-e instability
sunday allowing for a period of dry weather across the area sunday
morning.

then, a fairly vigorous shortwave rounds the base of the trough
through the area sunday afternoon and night bringing a clipper
system through the area. moistening of the low levels and
cooling aloft during this period especially allows for a wrap
around lake effect signal as southwest winds become northwest
behind the cold front. as is the case with these clipper
systems, they often lean dry (unless they have a baroclinic
boundary or some gulf connection), this is once again the case.
the gfs/aigfs get started on the early side with snow showers
along the warm front, but it`s probably going to wait until
after 00z sunday night to bring in some isolated to scattered
snow showers, more in line with the nam/ecmwf pairing. once, the
cold front arrives, better lake enhanced instability, low level
moisture, and low level wind convergence reinvigorates the lake
effect snow machine. it does take some time to get the theta-e
instability set up just right even with stout lake enhanced
inversions up to around 700 mb initially. but those descend
through the night even as delta ts increase above 20c. wnw winds
contain the 2"+ snow plumes to north of us-6 and currently have
a 3 to 6 inch total across berrien and cass, mi from sunday
through monday (a 36 hr period). a sliver of nw st joseph, mi as
well as northern st joseph, in county is also in the 3 inch
contour. our model certainty tool using the latest overnight
models indicates a 15 to 30 percent potential for 8 inches in
northern berrien county.

the cold air behind this clipper system, which ushers in -20c at 850
mb overhead of the area monday. surface temperatures fall from the
upper teens and low 20s to the single digits above zero monday
morning, and that along with 20 to 30 mph wind gusts creates wind
chills in the -10 to -20f range for monday, the lower 5 degrees of
which is cold advisory threshold here. highs struggle to reach 15f
on monday. monday night is also pretty cold with surface
temperatures at zero or a couple degrees above. slightly less gusty
winds combined with those temps still allow for chills in the -10 to
-20f range. 850 mb temperatures warm 5 degrees tuesday afternoon and
that`ll allow highs to reach the teens and low 20s.

models begin to diverge on what happens for the midweek period next
week. the ecmwf has its jet axis much farther west than the gfs and
a much better gulf connection with a low developing along a
baroclinic zone right overhead. the aigfs/gfs/gem are all in their
own camp away from the ecmwf right now though, and keep
precipitation east away from the area during this time period. it is
possible precipitation falls wed and again thu night/fri in this
pattern.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 612 am est sat jan 17 2026

cold front has cleared the terminals and residual flurries at
kfwa will end in another 1-2 hours. mvfr ceilings are still
possible at kfwa at times through the morning but upstream obs
point heavily toward general vfr ceilings and will hold with
that in the 12z taf. another weak shortwave will arrive this
evening and may bring light snow/mvfr ceilings at ksbn but kfwa
is expected to remain dry/vfr given displacement from better
forcing and lake contribution.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lmz043-046.
gale watch from late sunday night through monday evening for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
696
fxus63 kdtx 171148
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
648 am est sat jan 17 2026

.key messages...

- a cold and snowy pattern will dominate this weekend and next week.

- light snow south of m-59 and toward port huron this morning, then
light snow in the saginaw valley and thumb this evening.
accumulations of generally a dusting up to 1 inch.

- frigid and blustery conditions monday and tuesday with potential
for snow squalls. wind chills near or below 0 degrees monday morning
through wednesday morning.

- dangerously cold wind chills near -15f will be possible monday
night/tuesday morning.

&&

.aviation...

cold front sweeping through this morning is bringing a period of
snow showers for the first few hours of the forecast. though mainly
mvfr, there are a few obs dipping to ifr for both cig and vsby.
these showers may produce a dusting to a couple tenths of snow this
morning. drier conditions then attempt to spread across southern mi
but westerly flow off lake mi will try to continue to produce light
snow showers through the afternoon. this should mainly affect mbs
and fnt, possibly ptk, which could experience prevailing light snow
through much of the afternoon. later this evening a band of snow
over northern lower will pivot and drop into mbs and possibly fnt
before drifting off to the east possibly bringing a light coating
of snow.

for dtw...the front will bring snow showers through about 15z before
pushing east. drier air then lifts in from the southwest with the
bulk of moisture off lake mi holding north of the airspace. low
confidence in any window of snow beyond the morning activity so will
hold off on any additional mention.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft through this evening. low for tonight.

* high for precipitation type of snow.

* low confidence in visibility restrictions to 1/2sm in falling
snow today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 336 am est sat jan 17 2026

discussion...

lower michigan sits beneath a stalled upper longwave trough and
multiple embedded shortwaves will bring periodic chances for light
snow showers throughout the weekend as colder air gradually filters
in. moisture pooling ahead of a cold front pushing east across the
state this morning will bring an uptick in light snow coverage
mainly south of m-59 and toward the eastern thumb through about
10am. up to around a half inch is most likely with this activity.
breezy southwest flow will continue to direct the lake michigan
moisture plume mainly along and north of m-59 which carries the
highest confidence in any light snow shower activity this afternoon.
temps near freezing at press time will fall slightly into the
mid/upper 20s for much of the day before the cold air gains more
traction and sends temps to the teens tonight.

as the stalled surface low over the northern great lakes begins to
peel east this afternoon, a passing shortwave looks to help budge
the lake superior surface trough and send it southeast across
northern lower michigan. this offers a more defined signal for light
snow for the northern saginaw valley and thumb this evening, with
around 0.5 to 1 inch of accumulation. mainly flurries on sunday as
moisture depth remains shallow/disorganized but with occasional
bouts of supersaturation within the dgz. deeper moisture then
accompanies a clipper system sunday night with widespread light
accumulating snow likely across all of se mi. ensemble probabilities
support a dusting to around 1 inch of accumulation for most, though
a few spots getting closer to 2 inches will be within reach.

much colder arctic air arrives monday into tuesday as the core of
sub -20c 850mb temps pivot across the area. lref ensemble
probabilities indicate a 40-50% chance for 850mb temps to dip below
-25c which is near the daily record minimum per spc sounding
climatology. blustery conditions will accompany the frigid air mass
as high pressure builds into the ohio valley, maintaining a stout
gradient. daytime soundings monday have all the hallmarks of a
classic snow squall setup: deep boundary layer mixing up to nearly
10 kft with steep low-level lapse rates, marginal sbcape, 30 to 40
kt wind, and supersaturation wrt ice and uvv within the dgz. snow
shower generation within this environment is supported by synoptic
height falls and pva, low-level fgen, and moisture flux off lake
michigan. snsq parameter above 1 confirms potential for near
whiteout conditions at times. the signal for surface convergence
suggests highest potential for squall activity will lie within the i-
94 to m-59 corridors.

with the arctic air and persistent gusty wsw wind, wind chill falls
below 0f monday morning and stays below 0 through tuesday night
before rebounding on wednesday as actual temp rises from the teens
to the 20s. monday night into tuesday morning remains a target for
potential cold weather advisory issuance for parts of the area as
low temps bottom out near 0f and wind chill approaches -15f. naefs
and ecmwf ensemble data shows high confidence in longwave trough
persistence over the great lakes through the week, favoring
continuation of below normal temps despite the slight warm-up
midweek. signal is emerging for widespread snow on wednesday with
the next clipper passing through.

marine...

low pressure exits into on/qb today with modest southwesterly winds
amidst a constricted pressure gradient. this leads to heightened
waves across portions of the southern lake huron nearshores, thus
another small craft advisory was issued. weak troughing competes
with high pressure on sunday to keep winds and waves elevated. a
large and deepening low pressure system races through sunday night
into monday offering the next opportunity for gusts to gales amidst
a strong surge of arctic air. freezing spray issues are also
expected during this very cold and windy period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est sunday
for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.