Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 am edt wed sep 23 2026

.what has changed...
chances of rain will end a little faster than previously
forecast across the eastern counties today.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers are expected across mainly north central and northwest
ohio today with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

2) the forecast is dry for the remainder of the long term. the
coolest overnight lows so far this season are expected thursday and
friday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak upper level low will drift from the midwest
to the ohio valley today. the local area will be on the north side
of this feature with continued east to southeast flow through
through 700mb. isentropic ascent ramps up along the 305k surface
and showers will expand from cak, across north central ohio
towards northwest ohio. while low levels remain stable,
weak elevated instability will be present and will hold onto a
slight chance of thunder through this afternoon. the timing of
the rain has trended faster over about the last 48 hours and
also slightly west of the earlier placement. localized rainfall
amounts of a quarter to a half inch are possible with heavier
showers while many areas receive less than a tenth of an inch of
rain. high temperatures will be below normal for another day in
the low to mid 60s. skies will be cloudy with the exception
being towards nw pa where a mix of sun and clouds are expected.
precipitation will diminish through the afternoon as the low
digs to the south.

key message 2...
the upper level trough drifts to the southeastern states on
thursday and surface high pressure expands south of lake erie.
the airmass undergoes considerable drying and skies transition
to mostly sunny. temperatures only recover a couple degrees for
highs on thursday and friday, partly due to the cooler overnight
lows. good radiational cooling will allow lows to dip into the
low 40s on thursday night(inland locations) and mid 40s on
friday night.

high pressure will continue to influence the region into the early
part of next week as it slowly moves from the great lakes towards
the ohio valley. the forecast is dry through the extended with
lots of sun and we gradually trend towards normal temperatures
for early fall.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a cloud deck of 1-2kft is currently spreading across the western
portion of the area, reducing conditions at ktol, kfdy, and
kmfd. elsewhere, patchy mvfr ceilings and visibilities are
present due to an area of showers pivoting northwest across the
area. much of the rainfall has remained light but at times can
be heavy enough to reduce visibilities. as today progresses,
overall conditions should begin to dry out and ceilings
gradually begin to lift. by thursday morning all terminals
should rebound to vfr.

ne winds will continue to average 10-15 knots today, with
occasional gusts of 20-25 knots possible. near sunset tonight,
gusts should begin to weaken before all terminals see e/ne winds
of 5-10 knots by the end of the period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
flow on lake erie will be more easterly today then veer to
southeasterly tonight. was able to lower the swim risk from high
to moderate for lake and ashtabula counties today as waves
settle into the 2 to 4 foot range. swimmers should still
continue to use caution as some currents may persist.
otherwise, easterly winds of 15-25 knots will continue on lake
erie into tonight and will continue with small craft advisories
and a high swim risk with waves as high as 4 to 7 feet on the
open waters. we still expect to be able to drop the remaining
small craft advisories and beach hazards by 10 pm tonight.

high pressure will build south across lake erie on thursday with
winds backing to northeasterly again. waves will come up for a
period of time on thursday evening with choppy conditions
continuing. the north to northeast winds will persist all the
way into early next week although should be light by monday.
boaters should be aware of the onshore flow through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz003-007-
009.
beach hazards statement until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
ohz010-011.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>148.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...04
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
617 am edt wed sep 23 2026

.key messages...

- extended stretch of seasonably cool conditions will persist
through the weekend before temperatures warm into the 70s
between early and midweek next week.

- some pockets of light rain and drizzle possible (20-40%)
mainly south of us-24 today with totals struggling to reach
0.25".

- dry thursday through this weekend.

- there is a moderate swim risk through this evening for northern
la porte county.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 239 am edt wed sep 23 2026

as the upper low overhead slowly slides southeastward through the
day today into tonight, shallow moisture depths below 700 mb finally
dry out below 850 mb after 21z. this is as dry air advects eastward
effectively removing drizzle chances and allowing overcast to break
up. this also helps gusts to relax for thursday and friday. 850
mb temperatures slowly rise from the upper single digits into
the low teens as early as thursday morning, but mixing heights
struggle to reach 850 mb until thursday so upper 60s to perhaps
around 70 degree highs still look likely. this fight between
lapse rates, 850 mb temps between the upper single digits and
low teens, and times of negative theta-e advection continue
through the weekend. during this time, our upper low shifts
towards the east coast and a rex block sets up across the
eastern seaboard, effectively directing upper flow north of the
area on saturday and keeping the area in mid level ridging at
least until we get to midweek next week. as a result, it is
possible that our highs on monday and tuesday are both too warm
and we maintain the upper 60s to around 70 then, therefore
waiting until tuesday or wednesday for getting securely back
into the 70s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 617 am edt wed sep 23 2026

an upper low pressure system continues slowly moving southeastward
through the day. through this time period, there`s still enough low
level moisture advection to allow for continued mvfr cigs, likely
with some ifr after 14z primarily at fwa before moderating back into
vfr the last couple hours of the period. east/northeast winds also
continue through the period with sustained winds at or above 10 kts
for fwa, but at 10 kts during peak heating and into the evening at
sbn before the gradient slackens wednesday night. it is possible
that some 20 to 25 kts gusts could be had as well with the best
chance of these occurring at fwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
612 am edt wed sep 23 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures on the cool side of average today, then a gradual
warming trend carries through the late week.

- aside from a low chance of light rain mainly south of i-94 this
morning, dry conditions are expected into early next week.

&&

.aviation...

plume of moisture evident on satellite lifting west off lake erie
will continue to expand across the detroit airspace this morning.
the northern fringes of this moisture will pivot across fnt. latest
observational trends indicate ceiling height primarily at lower vfr
restrictions, but with some lingering potential for a brief period
of mvfr yet this morning. an inconsequential light shower remains
possible at dtw/yip as this moisture pivots through. existing lower
cloud will gradually lift and mix out through this afternoon.
otherwise, vfr conditions with prevailing easterly wind turning
gusty this afternoon. gustiness fades with loss of daytime heating
leaving general east flow with a mostly clear sky for tonight as
canadian high pressure takes control.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning. medium this
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 351 am edt wed sep 23 2026

discussion...

weak flow aloft associated with a transient rex configuration passes
over the great lakes today, with ensemble mslp output indicating a
+2 sigma ridge centering over southern ontario and quebec. low-level
easterly wind holds thermal troughing over se mi with 850mb temp
stagnant in the single digits celsius. a weak cutoff low passing
through the ohio valley is causing moisture to retrograde east to
west across the southern forecast area, bringing mostly cloudy skies
at least through the morning hours before drier air starts to work
back in. scattered light showers remain possible mainly south of i-
94 where mid-level deformation coincides with low-level convergence
downwind of lake erie. tdtw radar data shows these shallow showers
moving into the luna pier vicinity already. given the cloud cover,
highs in the mid 60s are expected for much of the area. farther
north toward the saginaw valley and interior thumb, mostly sunny
skies should prevail today and boost temps slightly toward 70
degrees.

longwave ridge cresting over eastern canada allows the resident
surface high to hold in place through the end of the week.
persistent wind direction from the east maintains a cooler pattern,
though a warming trend is likely as increasing insolation provides
some modification to the air mass each day. the surface high is
forecast to expand more into the great lakes by friday and saturday
as greater subsidence spreads overhead in response to a coastal low
tracking up the eastern seaboard. this allows each day to become
less breezy as the gradient subsides. dew points holding in the
40s/50s and mostly clear skies will favor crisp nights with lows in
the 40s outside of the urban heat island. split flow aloft looks to
dominate the late weekend and early week, favoring continued dry and
benign conditions as high pressure remains parked overhead.

marine...

easterly gradient winds persist over the central great lakes today
as a strong/expansive 30.70 inhg high pressure system centers over
quebec. this sustains elevated on-shore waves for most of the
waterways, therefore, a small craft advisory remains in effect for
all nearshore waters until 10 pm. diurnal afternoon gusts should
hold below 30 knots as split flow emerges in the low-levels. still
monitoring a rex block with the closed low positioned over the
northern portion of the ohio valley, offering a low-end chance for a
few light showers over western lake erie during the first half of
the day. wind speeds gradually decline into thursday as the pattern
unlocks, and deep-layer split flow returns aloft, after the surface
pressure gradient relaxes. wave heights should recover accordingly,
precluding the need for any extensions to the ongoing small craft
advisories. mainly dry and headline-free into the weekend with weak
flow.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.