Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
354
fxus61 kcle 050010
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
710 pm est wed feb 4 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes were made to the forecast with this full
update besides increasing winds and gusts for most of friday
through friday night. this is when a deepening clipper-type low
pressure system should impact our area. confidence continues to
increase that the clipper will generate widespread light to
moderate accumulating snow in northern oh and nw pa this
thursday night through friday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) light to moderate snow produce minor travel impacts to the
region late thursday night through friday evening.

3.) behind an arctic front friday, gusty northwesterly winds
will bring dangerous wind chills friday evening through saturday
night.

3.) primarily below-normal temperatures are expected through
monday before temperatures rebound to near-average values by
early to middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure is building into the ohio valley this afternoon
and overnight. there are some lingering light lake effect
flurries coming off lake erie this afternoon, but no
accumulation or impacts are expected. the next impactful weather
system will come on friday with another clipper and arctic cold
front. ahead of this clipper system will be a warm front lifting
from southwest to northeast across the region thursday night.
a band of light snow is expected to develop along this warm
front thursday night into early friday morning. widespread
light to moderately snow will develop along and ahead of the
advancing arctic front friday morning through friday evening.

some of the wed 12z hi-res forecast guidance indicates some
potential for burst of heavier snow and snow squalls along the
passage of the arctic front friday afternoon/evening. behind
the front, there will be a short time window friday evening
through saturday morning of scattered lake effect snow showers
and brief squalls for the snowbelt. all of northern ohio may see
a total 1 to 3 inches of snowfall between thursday night
through friday evening. the snowbelt of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania may see a total of 2 to 4 inches of
snowfall, localized higher possible, between thursday night and
saturday morning. friday morning and evening commute may be
impacted by snow and wintry travel conditions, especially later
in the day.


key message 2...
after a brief warm-up in the temperatures friday with highs in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, another push of arctic cold and
dangerous wind chills will arrive friday night through the
weekend. actual air temperatures will drop between 5f and -5f
friday night into early saturday morning. gusty northwest winds
15 to 25 mph will cause wind chill values to drop -10f to -20f
friday night and saturday. a cold weather advisory will likely
be needed. high temperatures on saturday will only reach 6f to
13f at most locations. overnight low temperatures saturday
night into early sunday morning will bottom out at 2f to -8f
across the area with the wind chill between -5f and -15f.
temperatures will slowly recover into the upper teens and lower
20a on sunday for afternoon high temps.


key message 3...
the arctic cold this weekend will slowly moderate going into
early next week. overnight low temperatures sunday night into
monday morning will be very cold in the single digits to lower
teens. wind chills early monday morning will be near or
slightly above zero. monday`s highs temperatures will rebound
closer to the freezing mark, upper 20s to lower 30s. overall the
forecast trend monday through middle of next week is for
temperatures to be closer to seasonable average for early to
mid february.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
periodic mvfr ceilings will continue through tonight, though
overall trending towards lower cloud cover. enough clearing may
allow for dense fog and/or low stratus in central of east-
central ohio, with a few models showing visibilities as low as
1/2sm or 1/4sm. added ifr tempo for a few taf sites, but may
need to adjust this more pessimistic if there is some
consistency with model guidance.

mvfr ceilings are likely continue and/or expand tomorrow
afternoon, giving way to mostly vfr conditions tomorrow night.

outlook...non-vfr likely thursday night into friday evening as
a clipper system brings snow to the area. northwest wind gusts
of 30-35 knots will be possible friday evening. there is a
slight chance for snow on sunday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered and ice will continue to
thicken and expand as temperatures remain below normal through
the end of the week. light northwest winds are expected through
tonight before shifting to the southwest by thursday afternoon.
the southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots as a warm
front approaches thursday night before winds shift to the
northwest and increase to 20 to 30 knots behind a cold front
friday evening into saturday morning. northwest winds will
diminish saturday afternoon and expect offshore flow with
sustained wind speeds under 10 knots anticipated sunday through
monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...saunders
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
122
fxus63 kiwx 050009
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
709 pm est wed feb 4 2026

.key messages...

- light snow thursday afternoon with up to 0.5` of accumulation
possible.

- freezing drizzle possible thursday night into early friday
ahead of another round of snow. snow friday morning could
accumulate 1-2", especially east of i-69.

- lake effect may develop friday afternoon through early saturday
downwind of lake michigan.

- a brief cold snap saturday will be followed by a warm up into
early to middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 239 pm est wed feb 4 2026

surface high pressure is keeping our area locked under a low level
stratus deck today with persistent northerly winds. as clouds
persist tonight, temperatures only fall from where they are now in
the upper teens and low 20s into the low teens overnight (as opposed
to tanking into the single digits and even below zero under clear
skies like what has happened over the past week). winds overnight
into the day on thursday shift to become southwesterly, ushering in
waa ahead of our next chances for precipitation.

several opportunties for precipitation arise thursday afternoon
through friday. two 500mb shortwaves sweep through the upper
midwest and great lakes regions during this timeframe. the first
comes through thursday afternoon and temperatures will be cold
enough (low to mid 20s) to support precipitation falling as
snow. thursday night, snow amounts will be up to 0.5" for the
entire area. light snow will persist through thursday night,
then freezing drizzle may develop in between the lull in snow.
the best potential of freezing drizzle appears to be late
thursday night through early friday morning, in between rounds
of snow and along the leading edge of the second round. models
are picking up a glaze to a few hundredths of ice at most. the
second round of snow moves through friday morning and early
afternoon as a clipper system comes through with the associated
second 500mb shortwave. this round will be slightly more potent,
with snow amounts around 1" expected east of i- 69. localized
amounts up to 2" will be possible in our far northwest cwa.
overall, have stayed consistent with the previous shift in terms
of snowfall and qpf. used a blend of the previous forecast with
the wpc guidance for precipitation and slrs. highs on friday
will be in the mid 30s, which will be the first day above
freezing in two weeks! even though highs will only be above
freezing for a few hours during the day, this will limit the
snowfall accumulation efficiency.

with strong caa and northerly low-level winds behind the clipper
system, lake effect snow may develop for northwest indiana and
southwest lower michigan friday afternoon into early saturday. the
nam especially is starting to pick up on this at the end of the 12z
run. despite the shoreline of southern lake michigan being mostly
ice covered, the open waters are still unfrozen. with a northerly
fetch over lake michigan (and possible lake superior connection),
this is a favorable setup for lake effect. it is still too early to
determine exact amounts, but the best chances for lake effect will
likely be west of us-31. an upper level ridge builds across the
central conus over the weekend, which will allow for lake effect to
taper off saturday as subsidence works in. temperatures will be cold
with lows in the single digits friday night and saturday`s highs
only in the teens. another clipper system is possible sunday,
although model guidance varies on timing and track. it is
possible this clipper goes further north and misses our area
completely.

into next week, a warm up and possible thaw is on the way! while it
is too early to know just how mild temperatures will get, highs will
likely be above freezing for several days. nbm guidance has highs in
the mid to upper 30s (which is just a few degrees above normal).
ensemble guidance is much more suppressed than it was just a
few days ago; only few runs now show temperatures as mild as the
upper 30s to low 40s. low chances for highs near 40 will be
along and south of us 24 next tuesday and wednesday, with higher
likelihood across central indiana. we likely won`t make a
multi-day run of widespread highs in the 40s.&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1218 pm est wed feb 4 2026

a moisture-starved upper level trough will track across the
southern great lakes and ohio river valley into this evening.
some increase in mid level subsidence into this evening in the
wake of this wave should tend to erode low level clouds. the
chances of mvfr cigs in the 2-3k ft range will persist tonight
however as backing low level winds in response to low level
anticyclone sinking south across the mid ms rvr valley could
allow for eastward advancement of weak lake aggregate trough.
moisture depths and inversion heights will be limited so
currently not expecting this to be more than patchy light
snow/flurries. warm advection increases late tonight into
thursday in advance of weak northwest flow short wave.
confidence in precipitation is low in this warm advection phase
due to moisture limitations, but best chances of light snow
thursday morning appears to be at ksbn. given moisture
limitations, confidence is not high enough to include precip at
this time with the 18z tafs.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 651 pm est wed feb 4 2026

predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions at the terminals this
period. another tricky cloud forecast with a lot of the guidance
missing the broad cloud deck with ceilings around 2500 ft over
much of northern in/western mi/il. there is a bit of clearing
generally along and east of i 69, with the 2500ft ceilings
becoming more scattered, but i suspect that the clouds westward
will shift east with time. kfwa is right along this boundary-
still reporting bkn026 as of this time. there is another
clearing further west from wi down through ia/western il, with
the back edge of our cloud shield slowly eroding near chicago.
for both sites, i have a tempo to 3500ft (though it may be more
of a sct025/skc briefly) for the next few hours to account for
this. the fairly quick moving cloud deck on the backside of the
western clearing may catch up to our slow moving trough/cloud
deck before we can clear too much-which would favor keeping the
mvfr ceilings in for a longer period. obs along the leading edge
of that cloud deck are around 4-6kft, then drop to 1500-2000ft
or so in the thick of it. among the guidance that is capturing
the current situation fairly well, its possible we drop to
around 1500-2000 ft with the subsidence inversion overnight
(ksbn) into thursday morning (kfwa)-especially if the clearing
is short lived. there could be some flurries at ksbn as waa
arrives towards morning but didn`t have enough confidence to add
to the taf. beyond that, we`ll see a period of vfr conditions
before dropping back to mvfr after 19z at both sites-with the
best chance for snow at ksbn after that. kfwa may see some
towards the end of the period, but confidence is greater after
00z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
089
fxus63 kdtx 050010
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
710 pm est wed feb 4 2026

.key messages...

- light snow returns for the end of the workweek, with accumulations
generally 1-3 inches. the bulk of the snow will fall late friday
morning.

- temperatures reach or exceed freezing on friday; however, strong
northwest winds at the end of the day (gusting 30-40 mph) will
drive much colder air back into southeast michigan.

- wind chills of 10 to 15 degrees below zero are likely saturday
morning before a modest warming trend occurs over the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure extending from the midwest into lower mi slides into
ontario and the ohio valley tonight. this results in cloud layer
wind backing toward the west which brings mvfr stratus from the lake
michigan shoreline into se mi. there are a few cloud patches already
just west of the terminal corridor set to first affect the mbs to
fnt area at forecast issuance while the larger cloud mass advances
eastward for the late night period. a corridor of dry air along the
ms valley could provide some temporary clearing thursday morning but
largely fills in with additional ifr/mvfr clouds from farther west.
these clouds precede the next low pressure system that brings a
weakening initial round of light snow capable of spotty mvfr
visibility accompanied by sw wind increasing to 20 kt gusts thursday
afternoon into the evening.

for dtw... evening clear sky transitions back to mvfr clouds toward
midnight and lasting through thursday morning. the initial round of
light snow shows signs of weakening with approach to dtw thursday
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening, moderate late
tonight, then high thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 344 pm est wed feb 4 2026

discussion...

amplified and energetic longwave pattern over the conus will result
in notable changes to the forecast though the upcoming week. we`ll
start off with a continuation of the stretch of below normal
temperatures as we remain engulfed within the persistent deep trough
before residing near the baroclinic zone as several shortwaves
embedded in the northwesterly flow pass over the region the end of
the week into the weekend. we`ll finally emerging on the warmer side
(meaning back to near normal temps) for a change as the strong
ridging to the west finally makes it`s way east across the plains
over the great lakes next week.

the rest of today and tonight we still have high pressure at the
surface with shortwave ridge aloft sliding over the region. this has
lead to varying degrees of cloud cover as dry air and subsidence has
attempted to clear out the clouds across our east while our western
counties remain locked under stratus with the lake moisture trapped
under the strengthening inversion. current cloud trends will carry
through this evening before winds turn more southwesterly which will
push the stratus eastward across the area tonight. these clouds and
a generally warming column will keep lows up around 10f tonight.

thursday and friday will feature several shortwave features
advancing se through the northwesterly flow for the end of the week.
overall the forecast for this period hasn`t changed much with light
snow chances beginning thursday afternoon as the isentropic band
arrives along with one or more weakening vort maxes near the left
exit region of the approaching 150 knot jet max. column will be
saturating from the top down through the day thursday with most
soundings showing a period of light snow from 18-00z occuring as
ribbon of fgen passes over with the lead arc of vorticity. thermal
profile is not great for snow accumulation with poor lapse rates up
through 7kft and an elevated dgz around 8-11kft. questions of how
long the dgz can even stay saturated into the evening with models
stripping out the moisture in between mid level features so could
even see a period of light freezing drizzle if small flakes don`t
continue. additional arcs of vorticity could also be poorly resolved
which could keep grinding out light snow through the evening and
into the overnight. will keep a higher pop, lower qpf/snowfall
forecast for the period with a few tenths of snow possible. more
notable wave passes over the region from around 09-15z which has
deeper saturation and better lapse rates in the dgz with specific
humidities over 2 g/kg. expect the bulk of the accumulation to occur
in this window where 1-2 inches is forecast. all in all with the
leading light snow and potential for additional mid level energy
carrying into the evening with a few more tenths, we could see 1-3
inches across the area. the probability space has held firm for a
few runs now with area wide average of 70-90% chance of receiving 1
inch and 20-30% chance of 2 inches supporting the 1-3 inch forecast
incorporating the extra tenths on the tails of the event.

the arctic cold front will drop through the area friday afternoon
with a strong northerly winds which could gust to 30 to 40 mph in
the afternoon into the evening. this will help usher in the next
thermal bubble of 850mb temps of -20 to -25c across the area with
the coldest of the airmass holding to the east over southern
ontario. friday night lows will fall to below zero for many
locations with the still elevated winds creating wind chills of -10
to -20f into saturday morning, which will only improve to around 0f
saturday as highs struggle to get into the mid teens. cold air
lingers through saturday night with lows again falling to around 0f.
temps then slowly climb sunday through wednesday with much of next
week having highs back near or above freezing.

marine...

low pressure tracks across canada into hudson bay through the back
half of the work week. the lead wave of this system triggers light
snow showers across the great lakes thursday, with the more
impactful part of this system arriving friday. this occurs as a
strong arctic front drops across lower michigan. additional snow is
anticipated, while a constricted gradient and strong cold advection
introduce gusty northerly winds to the area centered around friday
night. well-mixed profiles and low level jet winds of 40-45 knots
lead to efficient momentum transport and surface wind gusts of 35 to
40 knots. this has prompted a gale watch friday afternoon through
early saturday morning. the strong northerly flow will also generate
heavy freezing spray across ice-free portions of lake huron, where a
heavy freezing spray watch was also issued. high pressure ridging
then builds in for the weekend, alleviating wind and wave concerns.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray watch from friday afternoon through late
friday night for lhz361>363-462.

gale watch from friday afternoon through late friday night for
lhz362-363-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.