Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
410
fxus61 kcle 142335
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
635 pm est wed jan 14 2026

.what has changed...
the system that will bring snow to the area through thursday has
continued to trend a bit stronger and slower-moving. this has
led to a significant upward trend in the snowfall forecast for
both the synoptic snow through this evening and the continuing
lake enhanced snow through thursday. winter weather advisories
and lake effect snow warnings have been expanded to cover much
more of the area to account for these trends. no significant
changes for the outlook from friday through early next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain will continue changing to snow through this evening. the
entire area will see a burst of accumulating snow through this
evening, which along with quickly falling temperatures and gusty
winds will lead to hazardous travel conditions.

2) lake enhanced snow will continue through much of thursday
across northeast oh and northwest pa, leading to continued
impactful accumulations of fluffy snow with the greatest
additional snowfall in the higher terrain of the snowbelt.

3) temperatures will rapidly fall into the teens tonight into
thursday morning with near to below zero wind chills, posing a
minor cold exposure risk.

4) a cold weather outbreak is expected for this weekend into
next week with several systems bringing additional rounds of
snow, single digit low temperatures, and wind chills below zero.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a swath of light to moderate synoptic snow is evolving early
this afternoon from in into northwest oh and southeast mi, aided
by good synoptic lift ahead of a potent vort max that is
continuing to gradually amplify and take on a more negative tilt
to our west. guidance has continuously trended slower and more
amplified with this feature over the last 24-36 hours worth of
runs, leading to the continued slower trend with the initial
cold frontal passage and change to snow across the area but also
allowing for a greater amount of synoptic snow area-wide through
this evening behind the cold front.

the swath of snow taking shape to our west is expected to
continue to gradually expand and intensify as it translates
east-northeast across the forecast area through the first half
of tonight. as of 3 pm, the arctic cold front extends from
just west of cleveland to just southeast of findlay and is
moving southeast at about 20 mph. it should clear the eastern
portions of our area between 6-8 pm. mainly light rain (possibly
mixed with a bit of wet snow) ahead of the front will quickly
change to all snow with the frontal passage as temperatures
quickly plunge below freezing and into the 20s. temperatures
will drop into the 10s quickly between about 9 pm and midnight
from northwest to southeast. snow intensity will peak from west-
east across the area for a few hours behind the front. wind
gusts of up to 35 mph are expected amid the strong cold air
advection this evening, strongest near lake erie and west of the
i-71 corridor. some enhancement from the lake and upslope
should begin taking shape this evening in the higher elevations
of greater cleveland and the primary and secondary snowbelts.

snow accumulations through 1am/6z thursday, which captures the
bulk of the synoptic snow, are expected to range from 1-3"
across northwest oh and our southern counties in central oh to
2-4" across most of the area, with locally up to 6" possible in
the higher terrain surrounding the cleveland metro. the
combination of rain changing to snow, rapidly falling
temperatures/gusty winds, and a relatively quick accumulation of
snow through this evening (peak snow rates with the synoptic
snow of 0.5-0.75" per hour, perhaps up to 1" per hour in the
higher terrain/upslope areas of the snowbelt) will lead to road
conditions becoming hazardous across the entire area. was
slightly generous with a winter weather advisory and included
all counties that have a solid chance to see 3" or more of snow,
with a special wx statement for the rest of the area. while
snow will become generally light and much more intermittent
overnight outside of continuing lake enhanced snow downwind of
lake erie, ran all advisories until at least 10 am thursday as
poor road conditions will likely linger into the morning
commute, especially away from the main drags. some snow showers
may continue west of the lake erie lake effect into thursday,
though will decrease from west to east as ridging builds in with
any additional accumulations on thursday expected to stay <1".


key message 2...
as mentioned above, an impactful period of synoptic snow (with
enhancement from the lake and upslope into the higher terrain)
will drop about 3-6" of snow on the greater cleveland area and
erie, pa along with the primary and secondary snowbelts through
1 am/6z thursday...with the greatest amounts in the higher
terrain southeast of the lake. this will lead us into a
continuing lake enhanced snow setup through much of thursday,
lingering into thursday evening across northwest pa.

the general slower and more amplified nature of the system in
recent guidance, with models coming into better agreement on the
closed low aloft tracking over southern lake erie or far
northern ohio late tonight into thursday, has led to the general
setup for lake enhanced snow to continue to look more favorable
for continued impactful accumulations through thursday. some
modest synoptic lift and deep synoptic moisture to above 700mb
persists into thursday afternoon before exiting from west to
east, so this is really more of a lake enhanced snow setup than
a classic banded lake effect snow setup. 850mb temperatures
plunging to -18 to -20c across the area by late tonight and
thursday will lead to modest to moderate lake induced
instability, with lake-induced equilibrium levels climbing to
7-8k feet. while the amount of instability and el heights aren`t
anything earth-shattering, the snow should be fairly high-ratio
and efficient, with added contributions from the lake and
upslope allowing it to add up through thursday. generally, am
expecting continued light to moderate snow to continue across a
good chunk of north central/northeast ohio (as far west/
southwest as sandusky and wooster) and northwest pa into
thursday morning. activity will then gradually start to subside
from west to east thursday afternoon and evening, though will
not entirely shutoff across northeast oh until thursday evening
and a bit later into thursday night across northwest pa. wind
gusts up to 30 mph, especially near the lake, will continue
through much of thursday leading to some blowing/drifting snow.

mean low-level flow will initially whip around to the north-
northwest this evening, gradually backing to a more northwest
direction through tonight and eventually more west-northwest by
thursday afternoon. targets for the heaviest snow in this type
of flow will be: 1) the higher terrain southeast of lake erie
in both the primary and secondary snowbelt due to well-aligned
low-level flow in a favorable direction for upslope. 2) where a
lake huron connection sets up (perhaps as far west as the
eastern cleveland suburbs the first half of tonight before
gradually working east into northwest pa by thursday)...and 3)
potentially the western lakeshore towards sandusky and southeast
into parts of the secondary snowbelt (i.e. portions of lorain/
medina/summit). while the lakeshore will generally see less snow
than the higher terrain inland, the lake being colder now along
with some synoptic component to the snow for most of the event
should allow for at least moderate accumulations close to the
lakeshore. snow rates likely won`t be out of control late
tonight through thursday, though will commonly reach 0.5" per
hour within more organized lake enhanced snow and could still
peak at 1" per hour on an isolated basis...most likely where any
bands (especially the lake huron connection) interact with the
higher terrain. snow rates diminish more substantially within
lingering snow late thursday afternoon and evening.

additional accumulations from the lake enhanced snow late
tonight through thursday evening will vary quite a bit and will
be greatest in the higher terrain and lightest near the
lakeshore...ranging from 1-3" as far west/southwest as erie and
huron counties to 2-6" across great cleveland and the snowbelt
of northeast ohio, with 4-8" generally across northwest pa. this
will push storm total accumulations to 4-12" across greater
cleveland and the northeast oh snowbelt to 6-15" across
northwest pa. locally higher amounts can not be ruled out in the
higher terrain given this setup has a fair amount going for it
and has been trending up quickly over the last 12-24 hours. went
with warnings for all of northwest pa and much of northeast oh,
including cuyahoga county and surrounding secondary snowbelt
counties. will need to see how things play out across erie and
huron counties, as some models suggest enhanced convergence near
sandusky focusing better snow and leading to greater than 6"
across parts of those counties. will also need to keep an eye on
trumbull county, though these lake enhanced setups often
downslope into most of trumbull and don`t produce quite as much
there as counties just to the north and northwest.

key message 3...
as mentioned above, the cold front moving through today will
usher in colder air with 850 mb temperatures as low as -20 c
into the region tonight. this will translate to surface low
temperatures in the teens. with elevated northwest winds in the
region of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph, there will be a
notable impact to wind chills. wind chill values will fall to 5
to -5 f overnight and into the thursday morning commute. this
will pose a minor cold exposure risk to those outdoors.

key message 4...
an amplified and persistent ridge on the west coast and into
alaska will support a deep trough over the eastern u.s. the end
of this weekend into the first half of next week, with the mean
troughing generally expected over the great lakes. the trough
will be deepest monday into early tuesday. this will lead to a
cold pattern with occasional snow chances, both from systems
moving through and lake effect at times.

snow chances:
a clipper will bring potential for light snow accumulations to
the entire area friday, with modest snow shower potential
lingering friday night. another cold front crosses on saturday
with snow shower potential. outside of lake effect in the
primary snowbelt there should be a relative lull in snow
potential saturday night and sunday. another cold front may
bring some snow showers on monday, with lake effect into the
snowbelt behind it. there is hope for another relative break in
the pattern on tuesday, with hints of the next system arriving
from the west-northwest around midweek.

temperatures:
after another night with lows in the 10s thursday night, friday
through early saturday will bring a relative break in the colder
air with highs trying to sneak above freezing outside of the
higher terrain of northeast oh/northwest pa. a period of very
cold weather (coldest of the winter thus far) then arrives
sunday through tuesday, with modest improvement wednesday.
daytime highs struggling to get out of the 10s along with lows
in the single digits are expected for much of the area. the
coldest night may be monday night, when a few spots could make a
run at 0. sub-zero wind chills are likely late this weekend
into early next week, with potential for cold weather advisories
at some point as we get a better handle on exact temps/winds.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
conditions across the region have deteriorated the past few
hours down to ifr-lifr as the cold front has cleared much of the
region. most sites have transitioned to snow as a result
outside of kyng and keri, but will do so in the next couple of
hours. persistent ifr-lifr conditions are expected through much
of the early morning hours for sites from kcle and eastward due
to lake enhanced snow showers. for sites to the west (kmfd,
kfdy, and ktol), conditions will improve to mvfr at least by
early morning with the western most transitioning quicker. the
current ifr- lifr are driven by low ceilings at less than 1kft
and visibility dropping down to 1 mile or less in the snow
showers. ceilings should begin to rise across the region
tomorrow morning, though visibility will still be an issue in
the snow showers creating ifr conditions. blowing snow will also
be an issue as winds will be gusting upwards of 20-25 knots out
of the northwest through much of the taf period.

conditions will improve to mvfr towards the end of the taf
period for most sites outside of the snow belt where a few snow
showers may be continuing.

outlook...non-vfr expected to continue on thursday, most
widespread east of the i-71 corridor in lake effect snow
showers. non-vfr likely in snow showers on friday and saturday.
non-vfr may linger across ne oh and nw pa on sunday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories in place. northwest winds 20-30kts as a cold
front charges across lake erie for the remainder of today and wave
heights back into the 4-8ft range for the central basin, and 3-6ft
for the western and eastern basins. heavy freezing spray warning out
for tonight into early thursday in high winds, near freezing lake
temperatures, high wave heights, and air temperatures in the upper
teens. winds gradually ease thursday, then become
southwesterly/offshore friday 15-25kts. during this time frame, open
water wave heights will be 3-6ft, and nearshore zones will be 1-2ft.
southwest winds continue 15-25kts parallel to the shoreline through
the weekend, bringing the 3-6ft wave heights into the nearshore
zones east of cleveland.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 10 am est thursday for ohz008-
018-028>031.
winter weather advisory until 1 pm est thursday for ohz009-019.
lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est thursday for
ohz010>014-020>022-089.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est thursday for ohz023-032-
033.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 1 am est friday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lez142>144.
heavy freezing spray warning from 10 pm this evening to 2 pm
est thursday for lez144>148-164>168.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est friday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...23
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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696
fxus63 kiwx 142252
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
552 pm est wed jan 14 2026

.key messages...
- winter storm warnings and advisories are in effect for through
early afternoon thursday for the combination of heavy lake
effect snow and gusty winds. see the latest winter weather
statement for more details. warning areas could see 5 to 12
inches with locally higher amounts, and advisories the 3 to 6
inch range. wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible with the
strongest gusts of around 40 mph closer to lake michigan.

- travel will become difficult tonight for areas impacted by
lake effect snow showers. both the commutes this evening and
thursday morning will be impacted. the heaviest lake effect
snow showers are expected this evening into the early
overnight hours.

- there is additional potential for accumulating system and lake
effect snow through the middle of next week, with much colder
temperatures.

&&

.update...
issued at 544 pm est wed jan 14 2026

intense single lake effect band continues to wreck havoc from
portions of berrien county into south bend and just east of
warsaw. whiteout conditions have been reported with numerous
accidents as the band continues to drift very slowly west and
south. upstream trends and water vapor suggest movement may be
limited in the band for the next couple of hours as the pivot
point of the sfc low passes by. snowfall rates of 1 to possibly
as much as 3 inches per hour will be possible, resulting in
dangerous driving conditions. east of the band, snowfall is
quickly tapering off as the system continues to pull away. some
smaller bands of snow showers may still drift se in many areas
for a few more hours, causing some localized issues. with
temperatures continuing to slowly fall into the teens tonight
and winds remaining in the at least 10 to 20 mph range, drifting
and blowing of snow will continue.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 350 pm est wed jan 14 2026

a strong upper level vort max which brought the banded precip
earlier today will continue to shift off to the east this
evening. lagging strong low level frontogenesis forcing with the
associated cold frontal boundary will continue to produce brief
to moderate snow east of the interstate 69 corridor through
late afternoon before tapering. while amounts will generally be
an inch or less with this band, travel impacts are possible as
temperatures continue to drop behind the surface cold front
leading to icy road conditions.

the focus for rest of late this afternoon into thursday will be lake
effect snow and potential for an axis or two of very heavy lake
effect snow. inversion heights will continue to rise late this
afternoon/early this evening as post-frontal cold advection deepens.
near term forecast soundings continue to suggest inversion heights
rising to around 9k feet this evening and lake induced equilibrium
levels of around 12-14k feet. little in the way of any directional
shear is also noted in cloud bearing layer which should aid in
eventual organization of dominant banding this evening. long
residence time of parcels with n-nw trajectories and good lake
superior connection with these trajectories should also set the
stage for dominant band mode. snow growth should be optimal with
deep vertical motion fields through the a 3-6k foot based dgz.
one possible non-favorable factor could be the strong flow in
terms of dendrite integrity.

lake effect snow showers have taken somewhat of a multiband mode
this afternoon, but expecting this to transition to more dominant
single band (or two) as we head into the later evening hours. 0-1km
and 0-2km theta-e lapse rates in near term guidance highlight the
deep inland penetration potential with this event. a subtle
trend in href guidance has been for a westward shift in primary
dominant band tonight into thursday morning, some concern that a
bias be on display with some of hi-res guidance in overdoing
low level convergence as a result of strong convective response.
another synoptic wave/upper level jet should dig south across
the upper ms valley later tonight which could result in slight
veering of low level winds that could potentially shift dominant
band slightly westward overnight. only small forecast
adjustment for this shift was to make slight westward adjustment
to heavier snow amounts, but not to the magnitude of href
trend but overall not deviating much from previous forecast. in
any event, development of lake aggregate trough tonight should
focus dominant single band across portion of iwx lake effect
area, so only change to going headlines was to add starke
(especially ne portions of county) to the warning, and also add
pulaski/fulton to the advisory given increasing confidence in
deep inland penetration. 6 to 12 inch amounts were maintained in
the warning area, but if dominant band can focus, it is
possible localized areas could see amounts in the 12 to 18 inch
range. as with all lake effect events, exact band placement
still remains an item of somewhat lower confidence and trends
will continue to be monitored. blowing/drifting snow will be a
concern given strength of sfc winds and a rather dry snow (20:1
ratio).

lake effect snow showers will gradually wind down on thursday,
but deep convective layer should keep lake effect going through
the morning thursday before waning thursday afternoon. winds
should gradually diminish through the day thursday which should
hopefully lessen blowing snow potential.

an active pattern continues for thursday night as a warm advection
period gives rise to additional light snow accums of an inch or
two. some lake enhancement is possible that could continue into
friday morning. for friday, broad upper level trough will dig
across the southern plains with next cold front expected to
track across the area late friday night bringing much colder
conditions for saturday. may have to watch some potential for
band of more vigorous snow with this strong cold front, although
fgen fields should be somewhat weaker in comparison to this
morning as better mid/upper dynamics will be displaced to the
south.

a parade of weaker systems will bring reinforcing cold air for late
weekend/early next week with additional potential of light snow
accumulations and lake effect snow shower potential at times
(more of westerly fetch scenario). wind chills could drop to
advisory criteria at times early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 544 pm est wed jan 14 2026

although a few snowshowers may occur over the next couple of
hours at kfwa, the bulk of the lake effect snow band has shifted
west and is now focused on ksbn. lifr conditions will persist
for at least the next couple of hours with little overall
indication of the band shifting west until maybe 2z or after.
some model runs still depicts little overall movement even well
beyond 2z, so trends will be monitored through the evening for
possible further extension of lifr cigs/vsbys. gusty winds will
also create plenty of blsn.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est thursday for inz005-013-
015-116-216.
winter storm warning until 1 pm est /noon cst/ thursday for
inz012-014-103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter storm warning until 1 pm est thursday for miz078-177-
277.
marine...gale warning until 4 am est thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...marsili
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
552
fxus63 kdtx 142343
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
643 pm est wed jan 14 2026

.key messages...

- a secondary cold front will bring some localized higher snowfall
totals through the irish hills and metro region through the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening. snowfall totals of 1-
2", with some localized spots in excess of 2 inches possible.

- a winter weather advisory is in effect for huron and sanilac
counties as lake effect banding is expected to produce highly
localized snowfall totals of 3-6".

- much colder tomorrow into next weekend. morning wind chills reach
negative single digits for most areas.

- additional light snow chances friday.

&&

.aviation...

a vigorous vorticity maximum and the closing of heights aloft have
organized a slowing moving area of low-midlevel deformation over far
southeast michigan today. initialized forecast soundings show a well
defined 800-700mb frontal structure with a very favorable
thermodynamic profile for crystal production below this from the
surface up to 4.5 kft agl. very low stability to convectively
unstable lapse rates in the mixed layer just above the surface
organized convergent banding for a time. models do show a slow exit
to the favorable convergence so a measured approach was taken
calling for tempo of vlifr visibility reductions in sn at the
detroit terminals through 04z. midlevel uvvs are progged to weaken
rapidly after 03z with activity likely transitioning to flurries for
a time. some uncertainty with exactly when vfr ceilings become
prevailing with a typical dry northwest flow forecasted. clearing
with nothing more than high cloud late thursday with confluence
aloft.

for dtw...accumulating snow with ifr to lifr visibility restrictions
is expected to persist until 04z. vfr after 07z tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs aob 5000 feet tonight low thursday.

* high for precipitation type of snow.

* moderate for 1/2sm visibilities in sn between 00-04z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 237 pm est wed jan 14 2026

discussion...

strong cold air advection in the wake of a primary cold front has
rapidly dropped temperatures into the mid 20s across the metro
region and down into the low 20s across the tri-cities and thumb. a
secondary cold front will continue to see temperatures drop this
evening and overnight with lows dropping into the single digits
across most of the cwa, outside of the metro urban footprint and
closer to the border, where lows hold in the low teens. regardless
with sustained breezy conditions (gust potential of 25 to 35 mph
through the day), wind chills are capped in the single digits this
evening and drop into the negative single digits overnight.
otherwise, a dynamic upper-level wave will is now passing overhead
under the backdrop of the ongoing cold air advection. this secondary
push of cold air will greatly improve lllr noting the 0-1km thetae
lapse rates dropping to -2k/km. the nnw streamlines promote enhanced
lake moisture advection from lake superior and portions of the
northern lake michigan basin, through portions of the west cwa, with
added support from lake huron across the thumb. coupled with the
above, the upper-wave has enhanced fgen across the irish hills and
into the metro region, which is quite evident on radar. localized
snow rates bring the potential to see 1-2" of accumulation by
tonight, with some localized spots seeing measurements in excess of
2".

for the northern thumb, low-level wind streamlines back from north-
northwest to north this evening through thursday morning, sharpening
low-level confluence/frictional convergence. the environment supports
minimal directional/speed shear through 800mb, where the inversion
resides. this favors the generation of a more coherent lake effect
snow band with sufficient lake-induced instability supporting some
overturning and enhanced moisture generation off of the lake. current
guidance depicts lake enhanced snow banding to arrive inland through
huron and sanilac county tonight, possibly clipping eastern tuscola,
where potential for highly localized snow accumulation of 3-6"
exists. it remains noted that totals in excess of 6 inches are
possible if band residence time is maximized and slr of 20:1 are
realized. at this time, with confidence only low to moderate to see
achievement of 6+ inches, a high-end winter weather advisory (wwa)
has been issued for huron and sanilac county. a short fused issuance
of a wwa will be possible for tuscola county if the band arrives
farther west than projected. additionally, a short-fused upgrade to a
winter storm warning will still be optimized if any snow banding
holds stationary. visibility restrictions with blowing snow is also a
concern as gusts to 40 mph remain possible overnight. snow chances
ended for most locations through the mid to late morning hours as
northerly dry advection increases under a building ridge, with the
thumb region being the last location to see snow chances end.

the ridge of high pressure will bring a brief period of dry weather
thursday where high temperatures hold in the teens through the thumb
and low 20s elsewhere. wind chills remain capped in the teens.
renewed snow chances are likely on friday as an upper-level wave
enters the great lakes and lagging low pressure system fills in
across northern lower michigan. favorable system relative isentropic
ascent will produce light widespread snow through the day friday
where totals of 1-2" will be possible. wind direction veer southwest
to west in the wake of the low which will lake enhancement to aid
with snow production. the cold air advection is initially lagged but
will increase in intensity on saturday and sunday bringing
additional lake effect snow chances. a secondary clipper system to
then impact the great lakes period on monday with the longwave
trough enhancement driving south across the plains where 850
temperatures aob -20c enter the area. this will sustain active
conditions and well below normal temperatures. highs in the teens
and lows in the single digits are looking increasingly likely through
the early week period.

marine...

an arctic airmass settling south behind this afternoon`s cold
frontal passage results in strengthening northerly flow through the
evening. given the fetch, strongest winds occur around the thumb and
southern huron basin where lower 30kt gusts will be possible.
overall probabilities to reach gales remain low, sub 30%, with the
expectation any potential will be brief (hour or two). as such, will
continue to hold only small craft advisories around the thumb
nearshore waters. gusts over the southern great lakes only top out
near 30kts also warranting small craft advisories but no additional
headlines. heavy freezing spray warnings likewise remain in effect
for all non-iced waters of lake huron into thursday morning before
winds turn lighter second half of the day as a ridge quickly slides
overhead. influence of ridging dissipates by friday as the next
clipper system arrives over the great lakes bringing widespread
light snow. weaker nature of said low keeps south, turning west,
winds more moderate with peak gusts generally holding under 30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am est thursday for miz049-055.

winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for miz063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 4 am est thursday for lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning until 1 pm est thursday for lhz363-421-
441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.