Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
534
fxus61 kcle 282342
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
742 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

.what has changed...
precipitation chances have increased to around 30-60% for much
of the area for a brief period of rain showers thursday evening
into thursday night. precipitation chances on sunday have
trended more towards sunday night. the forecast for monday has
trended drier.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from
scattered rain showers thursday night, will continue through
sunday.

2) rain chances return sunday night through midweek.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure remains over the east coast through thursday.
southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring
well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in
40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on
thursday (see climate section below).

a low pressure system located well to the north near the georgian
bay will bring a cold front across the area thursday night.
while moisture and lift is still lacking overall, rain chances
have increased to 30-60%. some hi-res model guidance indicates
a decent chance at a brief, moderate rainfall with some of the
more intense rain showers, mainly across northwest ohio and near
lake erie farther east where there could be slightly greater
low-level moisture/convergence.

high pressure builds back in friday through sunday, ushering
"cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the
60s and lows in the 40s/50s. some of the typically cooler spots
of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania could get down
into the mid 30s friday night.

key message 2...
as high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift
brings rain chances back sunday night into early monday. latest
model guidance has trended toward lower pops and a drier day
monday and even into monday night as precip is mainly tied to a
warm front that lifts northeastward across the area sunday
night. any rain that does occur will be light and likely less
than 0.1".

a low pressure system and upper-level low approach the area from
the west, with rain chances on the rise midweek. this system has
a better chance to bring appreciable rainfall.

temperatures will likely remain above normal into next week with
highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
vfr observed across the board and will continue through thursday
afternoon. should be enough wind to prevent fog development
later tonight/early thursday morning. a cold front approaches
from the northwest late thursday and crosses the first half of
thursday night. am expecting a decent scattering of showers for
a 2-3 hour window at most taf sites with the frontal passage.
some showers may produce passing non-vfr vsby, with a 20-30%
risk for thunder at tol decreasing to 10-20% at fdy, cle, and
eri (and <10% at cak/yng). showers will impact tol, fdy, and
cle before the end of the taf period and have included
prevailing vcsh with a tempo for showers with mvfr vsby.
considered a ts mention at tol, but probabilities are just a bit
too low for it. showers will need to be added to the remainder
of the taf sites starting at or just after 0z in future cycles.

winds will shift southerly across the board tonight at under 10
knots. winds shift southwesterly on thursday and increase to
10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt during the afternoon.

outlook...mainly vfr. low confidence in non-vfr with rain
sunday night or monday.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds become 10 to 15 knots out of the
southwest tonight into thursday before shifting northwesterly
to northerly behind a cold front thursday night. choppy
conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin remain
possible behind the frontal passage. high pressure returns
friday and saturday allowing for northerly to northeasterly
winds to remain 10 knots or less. south winds less than 10 knots
develop sunday into monday.

&&

.climate...
we are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on
thursday. here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on october 29th:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...sullivan
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
497
fxus63 kiwx 282327
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
727 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

.key messages...

- a few showers or sprinkles are possible thursday.

- showers are possible at times over the weekend, with the best
chances on sunday. forecast confidence for this period
remains low.

- cooler, but still above normal temperatures, arrive thursday
and persist into next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1259 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

increasing southwesterly flow has allowed a return to temperatures
in the 70s with some increase in near surface (950 mb and lower per
12z kilx sounding). further increase in moisture will await the
arrival of a cold front and a narrow swath of increased isentropic
lift and lower cpds to bring some potential for isolated to
scattered showers (maybe a storm) thursday. greatest lift seems to
exist during the afternoon, which would coincide with peak heating
(although clouds may hamper that to some extent). toned down likely
pops in nw to higher chance for now.

the passage of the front will bring a push of caa, essentially
cutting off 10 degrees or so from the high temps we have enjoyed
over the past several days. this is still above normal for the end
of oct. sfc high pressure will build across the great lakes, keeping
the warm and moist conditions just to our south through the upcoming
weekend. depending on the final resting place of the stationary
front and fluctuations in its location, some chance for showers does
remain in this period. by no means is there expected to be a washout
and halloween activities appear to be mostly dry.

models are in agreement on an upper low moving to the pacific nw
shores by 18z sat. from here differences increase as a series on
northern and southern stream waves either eject from this upper low
or move into the sw us. gfs remains the most aggressive with a deeper
upper low over ok by 6z wed, vs the ec/gem that have a similar
location but much weaker. suffice to say, plenty of moisture will
push north with this system but the timing of specific impacts to
our area remain in doubt at this point.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 725 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

with surface high pressure to the east and a shortwave traversing
the northern great lakes, this pushes a cold front into the region
towards the end of the taf period. with this setup, a low level jet
pushes through the area thursday morning. this keeps winds excited
over night and could allow for a quick period of marginally
significant llws. at this point, it is just weak enough to keep it
out of the tafs. this jet could still allow a 20 kt gust during peak
heating at fwa. otherwise, with the fropa, some rain will be
possible and have added a prob30 group for lowered flight
conditions. it is very possible this group is removed at the
next issuance.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
518
fxus63 kdtx 282351
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
751 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

.key messages...

- mild temperatures continue into thursday with highs in the 70s.
these high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- there is a chance of showers and an isolated thundestorms thursday
afternoon and thursday night.

- dry and continued mild this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

se michigan resides between high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast
and low pressure over the upper midwest. this has resulted in a
gradual veering and strengthening trend to surface winds, with
direction expected to shift from south this evening to the southwest
by thursday morning. this occurs ahead of a cold front that will
reach mbs mid-morning and slowly migrate across the airspace by
thursday evening. moisture along the front will struggle to survive
as the low level jet pushes moisture transport north and remaining
moistures mixes with the dry airmass that is currently in place.
while a narrow band of showers and/or mvfr cigs may develop along
the front thursday, the broader expectation is for cigs to be low
vfr with light rain given the decreasing moisture quality. less than
500 j/kg of mucape exists, although with lapse rates of 6.0-6.5
c/km, cannot entirely rule out a thunderstorm or two again along the
frontal passage. winds post-front veer further to the west and
eventually the northwest by thursday evening.

d21/dtw convection...marginal instability will accompany a cold
frontal passage thursday afternoon-evening. there is a low chance a
thunderstorm may develop along the front.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet thursday afternoon and evening.

* low for thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening (mainly 20z to
00z).


&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 256 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

discussion...

a jet exit region and upper level confluent flow will migrate
towards the canadian maritimes during the next 36 hours. the 1000-
500mb ridge will amplify over lower michigan, dampening the effects
of a deep shortwave trough lifting out of the northern plains to
james bay. precipitation free conditions can be expected for the
remainder of today ahead of the cold front along with temperatures
some 15 degrees above normal. a relatively dry cold front draped
from the shortwave will push across the forecast area between 18z
thu - 01z fri.

relative humidity progs in the plan view show an extremely narrow
moisture starved boundary as it pushes across the area, limited to
only a few tens of miles across. the current forecast has likely
pops of 50-60% percent between 18-00z which is adequate. the overall
ageostrophic circulation is expected to be very weak with lean 850-
700mb frontogenesis. forecast soundings show static stability
lingering between 4.0 -7.0 kft agl limiting coverage of activity
with mucapes of a few hundred j/kg. latest swody2 has now
introduced general thunderstorm designation for southeast michigan.
warm temperatures are anticipated thursday ahead of the front with
readings pushing into the lower 70s.

anticyclonic curvature to the zonal jet streak in portions of
central canada will lead to strongly anticyclonic flow curvature
over the great lakes friday and saturday. high confidence exists in
strong static stability between 3.0 and 17.0 kft agl. southeast
michigan will reside in the gradient to the 1000-500mb thickness
tempering high temperatures both friday and saturday in the lower
60s.

longwave ridge is forecasted to build across the region this weekend
and then continue into the beginning of next week. current high
temperature forecasts suggest temperatures reaching the middle 60s
some 7 to 10 degrees above normal. any pattern change with the
arrival of pacific energy appears to hold off until after day 7,
tuesday.

marine...

southwest winds will be on the increase tonight ahead of a cold
front. however, the warm advection pattern will help limit mixing
depths. nonetheless, the strength of the low level jet and magnitude
of the pressure gradient do look to support gusts at or above 25
knots, most prevalent over central lake huron extending back into
saginaw bay. a small craft advisory has been issued from late
tonight through thursday morning for these wind gusts. offshore
flow, however, should keep waves mostly in the 2 to 4 foot range
however.

behind the cold front, wind speeds look to be maximized over
northern lake huron where cold advection is most robust. 850 mb
temps progged to fall below zero thursday night, promoting deeper
mixing and northwest gusts of 25 to 30 knots. confidence is high in
a period of 25 to 30 knot gusts over northern lake huron. high
pressure quickly builds into the central great lakes friday
afternoon, setting up lighter winds and dry conditions over the
weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 am to 3 pm edt thursday for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.