Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
756
fxus61 kcle 230802
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
402 am edt tue jun 23 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes with the morning update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry with pleasant, below normal temperatures through
wednesday.

2) showers and thunderstorms return wednesday night and
thursday, with a few strong storms possible thursday afternoon
and evening containing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

3) intermittent potential for rain friday into early next week,
with a gradual warming trend beginning on sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a large area of surface high pressure (canadian high) will build
down across the great lakes today and become centered over the
ohio valley region by wednesday. this will support mostly sunny
skies with just pockets of cirrus at times and fair weather
afternoon cumulus. the sunshine will allow for moderating
temperatures compared to yesterday, but still a solid 5 degrees
below normal for late june with highs in the low to mid 70s
today and mid to upper 70s wednesday. the high overhead will
set up another chilly night tonight with lows in the low 50s,
and small temp/dew point depressions may lead to quite a bit of
fog, especially over interior portions of ne ohio and nw pa. this
will be monitored.

key message 2...
wednesday night and thursday will be the beginning of a more
active pattern that will continue on into early next week. broad
mid/upper troughing that has been entrenched across the northern
tier of the conus will continue to hold as a low amplitude
shortwave trough progresses through the mean longwave trough.
as this shortwave crosses the great lakes thursday, a weak
associated surface low will track eastward across the southern
great lakes. this will lift a warm front across the region
wednesday night followed quickly by a cold front thursday
afternoon and evening as the low departs into the eastern great
lakes. an initial round of showers and a few embedded rumbles of
thunder should occur wednesday night and early thursday morning
driven by weak warm air advection and isentropic ascent ahead of
the warm front. not confident that these showers will be
widespread or amount to much, but a modest 65 knot upper jet
will be enough for a 20 knot low-level jet response, and this
will advect a little elevated instability into the area from the
southwest. this could help some areas to see better rainfall
coverage and amounts despite the unimpressive forcing.

thursday afternoon and evening could be more interesting as the
cold front crosses the region. there is still some disagreement
in model guidance on the timing of the frontal passage, but if
morning clouds and showers clear out in time and if the front
holds off until late afternoon/evening, then there should be
modest heating and resultant instability in the warm sector to
trigger a broken line of convection. a rather impressive 90-95
knot h3 jet streak crossing the southern great lakes in the
afternoon will generate plenty of lift and deep layer effective
shear for organized updrafts if enough instability can be
realized. based on current consensus of frontal passage timing,
the best chance for a few strong to severe storms will be along
and east of i-71 thursday afternoon into the evening. any storms
could produce gusty winds and brief heavy rain. the swody3 only
shows general thunder at this point (no severe risk), but this
will be monitored. temperatures will warm to near 80 thursday,
and it will feel noticeably more humid as dew points creep into
the 60s, especially after the cool weather of the past 10 days.

key message 3...
after the cold front progresses through the area thursday, the
boundary is likely to become quasi-stationary near the ohio
valley region through the weekend before starting to lift back
north early next week. the mid/upper pattern will feature the
stubborn longwave trough that has dominated the northern tier of
the conus lately slowly retreating into new england this weekend
and early next week as a broad ridge amplifies over the central
conus in response to a longwave trough amplifying west of the
rockies. northern ohio, nw pa, and the southern great lakes
region will be wedged between the cooler influence of the
lingering trough to the east and the heat dome building just to
the west. this combined with a cool canadian surface high over
the eastern great lakes this weekend through early next week
will keep the frontal boundary nw to se oriented across the ohio
valley. multiple weak shortwaves progressing through the nw flow
and interacting with the boundary will bring periodic chances
for showers and thunderstorms friday through the weekend,
especially along and south of u.s. 30 in closer proximity to the
boundary. at this point, the drier air from the canadian high to
the ne will probably win out for most of the area, so do not
expect any heavy rain friday through the weekend (most areas
will stay dry outside of u.s. 30 and points south), but had to
keep chance pops. by sunday and monday, the mid/upper ridge to
the west should expand into the area, and this should lift the
boundary northeastward and allow the higher heat and humidity to
build in. so, after a long stretch of cool and mostly pleasant
weather, the heat and humidity will make a comeback for the end
of the month.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
ground moisture remains high tonight due to rain that fell
across the area earlier today. the main concern for tonight will
be the potential for fog/stratus to develop as cirrus clouds
clear aloft. some mvfr cloud has already developed across
far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania where they are
closer to the trough along the east coast. cirrus across the
east half of the area will clear through 10z. as it does,
expect to see an expansion of mvfr/ifr cloud at eastern
terminals with the potential for mvfr visibilities. in the west,
skies are already clear and patchy fog is starting to develop.
while some mixing is expected to continue, brought visibilities
down to around 1 mile at fdy. fog seems a little less likely at
tol but overall may need to amend if lower conditions develop.

by morning, stratus/fog will lift fairly quickly and scatter out
through 14z. winds will tend to be out of the north/northwest
and may gust as high as 20 knots at eastern ohio/western pa
terminals.

outlook...non-vfr visibility expected on tuesday night with fog.
non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms wednesday night
into thursday, and again on friday night into saturday.

&&

.marine...
north winds of 10-15 knots with waves of 1 to 3 feet on the central
basin of lake erie this morning will decrease today as high pressure
builds south into the region. generally good marine conditions with
winds of 15 knots or less will continue through wednesday. southwest
winds increase to 10-20 knots on thursday ahead of a cold front.
thunderstorms will be possible near or over lake erie on thursday
which may result in erratic wind and wave conditions. onshore flow
of 5-15 knots is likely heading into the weekend with high pressure
to the north and the frontal boundary stalled somewhere over the
ohio valley.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 230750
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
350 am edt tue jun 23 2026

.key messages...

- there is a moderate swim risk for southeast lake michigan
beaches today. breaking waves and currents are expected.

- the next chance for showers and storms arrives late wednesday
and continues through thursday. severe weather is not
expected at this time.

- hot weather returns early next week with highs in the 90s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 350 am edt tue jun 23 2026

shortwave ridge slides over the great lakes today. associated
subsidence and cool/dry northerly flow will ensure a picturesque
june day. anticipate highs generally in the mid 70s with low
humidity, light winds, and just a few diurnal cu. next mid/upper
level jet streak and associated pv anomaly dig into the northern
great lakes wed night. this will send a weak "cold" front through
the region. there is a modest theta-e surge ahead of the front that
will likely help touch off a few showers/storms. current timing
still looks to be overnight wed night so may have to watch for a few
strong storms sneaking into the west late wed evening and perhaps
some renewed development in our se early thu afternoon but overall
the severe risk is low due to lackluster moisture and marginal
instability profiles. also, while 0-6km shear values are high, low
level flow is relatively weak.

this front is still slated to stall somewhere over the ohio valley
at the end of the week. exact location remains a source of
disagreement among the various deterministic and ensemble guidance
members. there is potential for a more potent mcv to eject out of
the plains and ride along this boundary that may clip our southern
zones. however, the relevant features are all dependent on mesoscale
details impossible to resolve this far out. eventually this front
surges northward as a warm front early next week as large/strong
midlevel ridge develops over the great lakes. this will return temps
and humidity levels to more typical summer-like conditions. details
regarding the exact strength and evolution of this ridge remain
murky though and this will dictate any potential rain chances.
general pattern recognition would suggest simply hot and dry weather
but will continue to monitor the potential for a few periodic storms.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 126 am edt tue jun 23 2026

midlevel ridge and associated surface high build over the great
lakes today. a few diurnal cu possible but vfr is assured and
winds will be light.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 4 am cdt early this morning for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 5 am edt early this morning for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
618
fxus63 kdtx 230757
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
357 am edt tue jun 23 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather today and tonight.

- slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue through mid to
late week.

- the next chance of rain arrives wednesday afternoon and night then
lasts through thursday.

- warming temperatures this weekend with additional rain chances.

&&

.discussion...

a broad area of surface high pressure extends from northern ontario
nearly to the ms/la gulf coast today. the north/south ridge axis
holds along or just west of lake michigan to maintain a light
northerly wind into se mi. it continues the slightly cooler than
normal temperature regime that has been in place for several days,
however surface td remains in or returns the 50s as daytime heating
peaks this afternoon. a generous field of cumulus coverage is the
result but little else given the adequate mid level subsidence
inversion shown in a survey of model soundings. another day of highs
in the mid to upper 70s looks very reasonable in temperature
guidance, except cooler near the lake huron shoreline.

cumulus transitions to increasing cirrus coverage tonight,
especially after midnight, as the next low pressure system arrives
in the upper midwest toward sunrise. satellite imagery early this
morning shows the mid/upper level circulation moving out of the
canadian rockies with respectable intensity and easily able to
organize at the surface today. consensus of 00z deterministic models
then has the surface low on schedule to reach the mb/nd border this
afternoon and the mn arrowhead by wednesday morning. the system sets
up a standard pattern of moisture transport from the central plains,
although without full access to gulf moisture given the front stalled
along the coast. more typical, rather than excessive, pw in the 1.0
to 1.5 inch range is shown building into lower mi with the warm
sector theta-e ridge during wednesday. scattered showers gradually
increase coverage while spreading from the tri cities toward flint
and thumb wednesday afternoon and then southward toward metro detroit
by evening. the associated cold front provides an assist to coverage
as it moves through lower mi wednesday night and early thursday
while intensity fights against nocturnal timing. the gfs parameter
space can be sneaky good at capturing nocturnal convection, both
surface based and elevated, and even it struggles to maintain mucape
above 500 j/kg in the 1000-850 mb layer through sunrise. showers and
storms then remain in the forecast for the daytime thursday as the
00z model cycle agrees on slower eastward timing/progress of the low
and cold front not settling into ontario and ohio until thursday
night.

heading into the weekend, diffuse surface high pressure settles into
the central great lakes as the thursday front stalls in the ohio
valley. the front becomes the focus for a very active convective
pattern judging by model qpf fields, but which remains south of
lower mi in this forecast cycle. weak high pressure holds over the
central great lakes through saturday while larger scale changes
begin in the long wave pattern. this is centered around the large
closed low shown in extended time range models developing over the
pacific nw into the northern rockies by sunday. the long wave
amplification points to a temperature trend shifting above normal in
the great lakes by sunday into early next week.

&&

.marine...

wind direction will continue to back north to northwest through the
early week period as high pressure builds in. lighter winds are
expected today and wednesday. winds will then increase to around 10
knots from the south and southwest late wednesday and into thursday
ahead of the next low pressure and frontal system. this system will
also bring numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms late
wednesday into thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1151 pm edt mon jun 22 2026

aviation...

period of dry and stable low level conditions will exist this taf
period as high pressure gradually increases influence. some
lingering pockets of high based vfr cloud will exit through the
early morning period. limited coverage of diurnal vfr cu will emerge
again tuesday afternoon, as cirrus briefly thickens overhead
throughout the late day period. winds hold from the north generally
at 10 knots or less.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected tonight and tuesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......rbp
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.