Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 pm est wed nov 11 2026

.what has changed...
rainfall coverage has continued to trend higher tonight and
thursday afternoon/evening, especially from north central ohio
through nw pa. the forecast thursday night through saturday
pertaining to lake effect showers, mixing with snow at times,
remains mainly the same.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain tonight into early thursday morning.

2) a second wave of widespread showers thursday afternoon/evening
transitioning to more localized lake effect showers thursday
night through saturday, mainly over north central and ne ohio
and nw pa. snow will mix in at times away from lake erie,
especially thursday night and friday night, but the risk for
impactful accumulations remains low.

3) drying out sunday through wednesday and slowly warming.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
after a very pleasant fall, the coldest air of the season is
finally set to invade the great lakes, ohio valley, and
northeast tonight through the weekend as a deep mid/upper
trough digs into the eastern conus. satellite and water vapor
loops this afternoon show a highly amplified pattern developing
as sharp mid/upper ridging strengthens over the western conus,
with a downstream trough digging into the upper midwest. clouds
have already thickened up across the region ahead of this
upstream trough and developing surface low, with regional radar
showing an expanding area of showers near chicago. as the
mid/upper trough continues to dig into the great lakes and ohio
valley tonight, coupling between a 50-70 knot h5 jet rounding
its base toward the tennessee valley and a 50 knot h5 southern
stream jet offshore of the carolinas will help the surface low
to rapidly deepen as it tracks across central/southern ohio
tonight then offshore of southern new jersey by thursday
evening.

an initial cold front will settle south across lake erie this
afternoon and through the rest of the region this evening, with
minimal impacts other than a wind shift to light northerly. the
main impact will come with the deepening surface low that tracks
just south of the cwa tonight and early thursday morning.
strengthening mid-level frontogenesis on the north and
northwest side of the low track beneath upper divergence will
lead to continued expansion of the upstream rain, and a modest
850 jet response to the forcing could advect in enough mid-
level instability for some weak convective elements to support
briefly heavier rain. with this being said, expect scattered
light showers this evening to become a widespread, steadier
rain after 04z, with rain then lasting much of the night and
tapering off from west to east in the 12-15z thursday timeframe.
the steadiest rain and biggest risk area for some heavier
convective downpours will be from north central ohio through ne
ohio and nw pa in closer proximity to the strengthening
dynamics. overall, this system will be a soaker, but rainfall
amounts will remain very manageable in the 0.25 to 0.60 inch
range given the fast movement.

key message 2...
the real change to much colder air will come in the wake of the
low thursday as the center of the mid/upper trough settles over
the ohio valley and great lakes bringing a pool of 0 to -3 c
850 mb air overhead. this will set up a raw, damp day as the
tightening pressure gradient and cold air advection lead to n
winds gusting up to 30 mph at times and highs only in the upper
40s falling a bit further in the afternoon. there will be a
lull in the rain thursday morning in most areas, but expect
widespread showers to rotate back into the region for the
afternoon and evening ahead of a mid- level shortwave and
associated surface trough dropping southward coupled with deep
wraparound moisture and growing lake to 850 mb delta t`s. this
will set up round two of fairly steady rain, with maximum
coverage in the 18-00z timeframe. the greatest amounts will
occur over the central highlands as well as inland portions of
the primary and secondary snowbelts of ne ohio and nw pa where
lake enhancement and upslope flow will boost totals. these areas
could see an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain.

by thursday night, even colder air in the wake of the
shortwave/surface trough and continued northerly flow will
transition the precip to pure lake effect, which will continue
at varying coverages and intensities through saturday as weak
shortwave impulses rotate through. an average boundary layer
flow near 360 degrees coupled with sufficient wraparound
moisture and strong lake induced instability will set up a lake
huron band from the lake erie islands to the central highlands
thursday night and friday morning, with scattered, lighter
showers across ne ohio and nw pa given the short fetch. locally
heavy downpours will accompany this band, with graupel within
the strongest convective cores. the warm lake and strong
northerly flow will advect the marine layer inland, so expect
temperatures to be too warm in most areas for snow flakes
thursday night/friday morning, however, the higher elevations of
the central highlands as well as interior ne ohio and nw pa
will likely see some wet snow. accumulations likely won`t amount
to more than a slushy dusting, but will need to watch for wet
bulbing in the stronger huron band that could lead to locally
more snow (1-2 inches at most).

precip should transition back to mainly rain during the day
friday, and expect the main huron band to slowly pivot eastward
into ne ohio and nw pa as the boundary layer flow backs to nw.
this will lead to a more traditional, multi-band lake effect set
up friday evening through saturday over the primary and
secondary snowbelts. graupel and wet snow will be possible
during the day friday in the heaviest convective bursts, mainly
in the highest elevations, with better chances for snow flakes
again friday night away from the lake and over the higher
elevations given the continued marine influence.

lake effect showers will continue saturday as a final shortwave
rotates through the nw flow, gradually ending saturday night and
sunday morning as high pressure building from the west brings
drier air and a lowering inversion, but it will remain cold
through sunday with temperatures a solid 10 degrees below
normal.

key message 3...
surface high pressure will continue to build over the ohio
valley sunday and monday, sliding into the appalachians and mid
atlantic by late tuesday and wednesday as the eastern conus
mid/upper trough gradually gets replaced by a building
mid/upper ridge ahead of a strong series of troughs progressing
into the western conus. this will support a pattern change back
to warmer and drier weather, with highs in the 50s likely
returning by tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
vfr conditions to start the period will lower overnight as low
pressure over indiana deepens across southern ohio. thunderstorm
activity across southern indiana is expected to remain south of
the local area while rain expands as a cold front is pulled
south overnight. conditions will deteriorate with a trend
towards widespread mvfr ceilings and occasional reduced
visibilities in the steadier rain. otherwise, widespread rain
will tend to spread east across the area through thursday
morning, then become more showery for the afternoon. a trough
will swing south across the area between 20-00z bringing another
round of more organized showers. some locations may see a
period of ifr behind this trough on thursday evening.

winds will start out as northeasterly at 10 knots or less, back
to northwesterly by thursday morning with some gusts to 20 knots
at times during the afternoon. winds will set up out of the
north behind the trough passage during the afternoon and evening
with some locations gusting between 20-30 knots, especially near
the lake.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend. some wet snow
showers may also be possible friday night into saturday morning.


&&

.marine...
winds will increase on lake erie tonight and especially thursday
as a deepening low tracks across the upper ohio valley and into
the mid atlantic region. expect n to ne winds to increase to
15-20 knots tonight, becoming n at 20-30 knots thursday. this
will build wave heights to 6-9 feet. issued small craft
advisories late tonight into friday. the winds will start to die
down thursday night, but it will take longer for waves to
subside. after a lull of nnw winds averaging 10-15 knots most of
friday, nw winds could near 15-25 knots again friday night
through saturday night, so additional small craft advisories
will likely be needed. winds diminish sunday and monday as high
pressure builds overhead.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am thursday to 10 am est friday
for lez142-143-148-149.
small craft advisory from 4 am thursday to 1 pm est friday for
lez144>147.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...10
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
544 pm est wed nov 11 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers develop and spread across the area this afternoon
and early evening. an isolated thunderstorm is possible across
portions of northwest indiana this afternoon and early evening
with isolated wind gusts of over 40 mph possible with any
showers or isolated storms.

- lake effect showers impact areas mainly west of us-31 in
northwest indiana and far southwest lower michigan thursday
through friday night. snow is expected to mix in by late
thursday night into friday morning. additional lake effect
snow showers are possible early saturday. some slushy snow
accumulations are possible with the lake effect, mainly early
friday morning across northwest indiana.

- below normal temperatures thursday through this weekend before
moderating midweek next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1200 pm est wed nov 11 2026

a vigorous shortwave continues moving southeast from ia this morning
through central il today, reaching central in this afternoon. the
eventual placement of the warm front will be key in understanding
severity, but there appears to be some southward trend in that
placement in models between yesterday and today. key to thunderstorm
development appears to be the mid level lapse rates. hail was
forming across eastern ia this morning right on the northern
gradient from high to low within an elevated area of instability.
this would be the cause of hail should it form across the area
today. such an area of mid level lapse rates moves into areas south
of us-30 midday into the afternoon before vacating by 20z. this area
is well out in front of the forcing and would likely not be where
storms form. the other area into our southwest 1 to 2 tiers of
counties has mid level lapse rates from 6.5 to 7c. this overlaps
with an area of very weak mucape right around 100 to 250 j/kg in the
20 to 00z window. there is some low level turning to work with
within the lowest 1 to 2km of the atmosphere, but given the weak
instability and what appears to be an elevated instability nature to
the atmospheric column, the tornado threat appears to be low unless
we can realize a taller surface instability column. soundings appear
to show a sort of an onion-shaped or shallow inverted-v profile that
may be conducive to bringing winds down to the surface alluding to
the gusty to damaging wind possibility.

hot on the heels of this wave is an area of vorticity traveling
southward from canada. as this area travels southward, it
deepens and interacts with the departing low pressure area.
what`s interesting is the deeper cold is delayed and farther
west of lk mi on thursday. the ecmwf almost has a drainage
signal where the eastern lk mi area is cold, but over the lake
is warmer, even at 850 mb. so, while the qpf signal appears lake
effect/lake enhanced, we haven`t gotten the cold air enough to
change it over to snow yet. a couple of compact waves traverse
southward nearby lk mi and the rrfs seems to show a trough
kicking off a more sustained band thursday evening. by the time
we get to early fri am, enough cold air has wrapped in that
soundings are beginning to get snow mixed in or changed over. -5
to -6c at 850 mb is right over the southern tear drop of lk mi
on the ecmwf so that makes sense. as various waves/instability
troughs traverse southward, finding the exact trajectory will be
difficult because there will be some east-west wavering. a
slight eastward change can mean the relatively vigorous lift
going on from the relatively warm lake and cold airmass
interaction can mean quick snow rates getting into laporte and
maybe starke counties. these could be rates that overcome the
warm ground from how anomalously warm we`ve been this late fall.
as such, will continue the mention of the 1 to 2 inches of snow
through friday that could result in laporte county especially
with that wavering. model guidance with variable snow ratios
continues to back this up. it`ll be interesting to see what
happens with snow and if it`ll stay mainly on grassy surfaces or
if it`ll have enough oomph to accumulate on roads. some
guidance say it`ll struggle to accumulate on roads friday
morning. the snow band may push eastward saturday morning toward
us-30, but it would appear to be more diffuse at that point and
in its dying trend. it`ll also trend back to rain or drizzle as
the column warms. lake clouds could continue through sunday
with the northwest trajectories continuing. it is interesting to
see the highs are still forecast to warm into the 40s on friday
and saturday. that would cut into the accumulation ceilings and
i`m curious if we`d have refreezing overnight with sub-freezing
lows. this would depend on having standing water left on roads
that, with light to calm wind, would indicate it`s possible.

finally, by the time we get to monday, trajectories change even as
the last vigorous wave traverses the lake saturday. surface high
pressure is already working to dry low level moisture out this
weekend. highs trend warmer through the 40s to reach the 50s by the
middle of next week as the surface high slowly translates eastward.
there is a vigorous wave south of the high that moves into the gulf
states, but it`s far enough south to avoid our area. the warm
advection pattern returns midweek next week as a wave shifts
northeastward from the central plains into south-central canada. as
a result, the work week looks dry monday through at least thursday.
however, lows won`t rise above freezing until thursday morning.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 543 pm est wed nov 11 2026

the first impulse translates eastward and cooler air wrapping around
the low invigorates the lake effect machine. this whole period, lake
effect precip is expected to stay rain as cold air is delayed
filtering into the area. a couple instability troughs swing through
the area late tonight into thursday allowing for a brief period
dipping down into mvfr. then a more prevailing period for mvfr
conditions comes midday thursday into the afternoon as the shortwave
that would have moved over lk mi passes by overhead. this brings
both mvfr cigs and visby. the other impact to these tafs will be
winds. initially east winds back northerly with sustained winds
surpassing 10 kts not too long after taf start and again with
the diurnal curve thursday afternoon. some gusts to 20 to 25 kts
will be possible during that later time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
659 pm est wed nov 11 2026

.key messages...

- light rain along and north of i-69 continues this evening.

- after a break during the morning, showers increase again as a
strong cold front sweeps north to south over the region thursday
afternoon.

- the front also brings in a much colder air mass on gusty north
wind.

- the inbound cold air activates lake effect rain/snow showers
thursday night through saturday. minor wet snow accumulations are
likely across the thumb, mainly near saginaw bay and the port huron
vicinity.

&&

.aviation...

dual low pressure systems will govern the aviation conditions
through this evening into tomorrow. the southern track low is moving
across the ohio river valley while the other northern low is pushing
a cold front through central great lakes. combination of lift with a
moisture boost is leading to scattered shower activity and overcast
skies across the terminal corridor. main area of showers has focused
more over the saginaw valley and thumb as of now with limited
chances for precipitation for terminals to the south. this looks to
hold for at least for the next few hours as the southern systems
precipitation hold south. better rain chances will be focused along
and behind the front as cold advection ramps up tomorrow behind the
front along with the greater ceiling reduction to mvfr and ifr. winds
expected to be gusty to around 20-25 knots and out of the n-ne by
late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this evening. high
tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 405 pm est wed nov 11 2026

discussion...

the cold air surge is on schedule for late week as a reminder that
winter is on our doorstep, even during a strong el nino year. the
temperature change follows a complex system of low pressure tracking
through the great lakes and ohio valley today and tonight. it brings
several rounds of rain showers to the region until depth of below
freezing air becomes sufficient for snow thursday night. lake effect
contributions give the thumb area the best chance for some
accumulation by friday morning.

bands of rain showers continue increasing over se mi this afternoon
and evening as the ohio valley mid/upper level wave phases with the
northern ontario trough. these systems are well-defined in afternoon
observations, both in surface analysis and satellite imagery. model
analysis fields indicate the leading low level frontal zone
stretched out from the ohio valley up into northern in/oh, and this
is where ongoing northern il convection remains focused. the
combination of the mesoscale mid level circulation near southern
lake mi and the northern ontario trough are building a mature 700 mb
moisture axis that feeds the shower pattern up to the northern great
lakes surface low and intermediate cold front entering northern
lower mi. this forecast cycle leans toward borderline categorical
coverage of light rain along and north of i-69 this evening and then
decreasing after midnight. the northern ontario mid/upper level
trough then sharpens considerably overhead during thursday, and this
powers the primary cold front through lower mi during the afternoon.
coverage of rain showers becomes numerous to widespread again but is
confined relatively close to the surface trough as it moves north to
south and exits into ohio by thursday evening.

today`s forecast cycle has slightly higher qpf and a slightly larger
footprint of snow accumulation in favored areas of the thumb thursday
night, mainly near saginaw bay and the port huron vicinity. this is
where wind speed and direction favor longer duration of more intense
lake effect bands, but still subject to all of the limiting factors
mentioned in our early morning forecast discussion. lake huron water
in the 50s maintains an all rain boundary layer over the lake and at
least a rain/snow mix near the shoreline, then cooling to all snow
farther inland. the lake aggregate air mass that covers the rest of
lower mi is cold enough for snow, although refs mean surface t and
td are still hovering around the mid 30s by sunrise friday. these
thermal characteristics continue to support holding snow ratio in
the single digits in borderline rain/snow mix for the event while
mainly adopting the areal qpf adjustments from the 11/12z model
cycle. considerations to also monitor on the side of accumulation
overachievement are tied to model soundings that support an
impressive lake effect profile having convective depth around 10 kft
with large cape density into the dgz. a resulting colder/high rate
dominated thermal profile and surface temperature could be a
contributing factor in the much higher snow accumulation shown in
refs members and ensemble means through friday morning.

lobes of short wave energy round the west flank of the long wave
trough friday afternoon into the weekend. this keeps lake huron
activated into the weekend while wind veers more offshore by
saturday. extended range models indicate surface high pressure makes
an aggressive move into lower mi for improving conditions by sunday.

marine...

the passage of low pressure across the ohio valley today will
reinforce northeast to north flow across the great lakes starting
tonight and lasting through the week. this will usher in much cooler
air across the seasonal warmer waters of the great lakes, bringing
unsettled weather and elevated winds and wave heights for the
remainder of the week. the boost in near surface instability will
see sustained winds and gusts quickly increasing tonight, producing
gusts of 25 to 30 knots through much of tomorrow for most of the
eastern great lakes. localized higher gust potential through the
saginaw bay will be possible tomorrow morning and early afternoon
when a brief window for favorable northeast flow sets up. isolated
gust to gales will be possible within this corridor during this
time, but confidence is low that we will see the required 3+ hour
time window needed to trigger gale headlines.

wind gusts then diminish slightly through friday, but breezy
conditions are still expected to persist across lake huron.
widespread to numerous lake effect rain showers are also likely
under this setup with the best coverage expected across lake huron.
an isolated waterspout remains possible with rain shower activity.
high pressure to build in on sunday, relaxing wind speeds and ending
lake effect rain chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 1 am thursday to 10 pm est friday for
lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory from 4 am thursday to 10 pm est friday for
lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...bt
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.