Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
066
fxus61 kcle 141043
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
643 am edt fri aug 14 2026

.what has changed...
heavy rain is possible from marion to mount vernon early this
morning. the pop forecast for saturday night into sunday has
been increasing as confidence in location and timing improves. a
small area (approximately findlay to marion) was upgraded to a
slight risk for severe weather saturday night. there is a
slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on saturday
for most ohio counties (excluding far northeast ohio).

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through today
near and south of the us-30 corridor. heavy rain is possible
from approximately marion to mount vernon this morning.

2) showers and thunderstorms will return saturday night through
sunday. heavy rain is likely saturday night, with a few
stronger storms possible sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a surface stationary boundary lingers over the lower ohio
valley, though forcing in the 850-700 mb layer extends well
north of this boundary. in the immediate near term, light to
moderate rain showers have generally remained south of a wood to
wayne county line. showers should gradually expand northward to
as far as a toledo-lorain-akron line but the risk for heavy rain
is likely to rain towards our southwest counties (marion to
knox) where the latest hrrr cycles project an inch of rain. the
risk for >2" of rain and subsequent flooding is low but not
completely out of the question, so we`ll have to monitor for
that this morning. rain showers dissipate through the afternoon
and we should be completely rain free by around 21z.

key message 2...
the next period for unsettled weather will be saturday night
through sunday as a low pressure system moves east across the
great lakes.

a stationary front lingering over the ohio valley will lift
northward across the area saturday night in response to low
pressure tracking across the great lakes region. a period of
heavy rain is becoming more likely saturday night as a highly-
anomalous moist air mass, characterized by pwats exceeding 2.0
inches, which is approaching the climatological maximum, enters
the area. there is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
saturday night with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) from findlay to
marion.

the latest model guidance continues to be trending the strong
to severe storm threat further south of the area as any
redevelopment in the afternoon will likely focus along the
residual boundary from the overnight convection.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
rain continues across the southwest part of the forecast area,
including kfdy and kmfd, with primarily mvfr visibilities.
elsewhere, br has resulted in mvfr visibilities with
periodic and patchy ifr visibilities. rain will scatter out as
it expands northeastward to just south of ktol/kcle and around
kcak before dissipating by early afternoon. vfr should return
areawide by late this morning and continue through the rest of
the taf period.

light and variable winds overnight tonight will become east-
northeast while increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms
saturday afternoon through sunday evening.

&&

.marine...
weak high pressure builds across the great lakes today and
tomorrow. conditions should be relatively quiet through
saturday.

low pressure moving eastward across the great lakes region
brings a warm front across lake erie saturday night into sunday
morning, followed by a cold front sunday evening into sunday
night. there is a low possibility for offshore flow reaching or
exceeding 20 knots saturday, though probabilities of winds > 20
knots and waves > 4 ft increase sunday into sunday night as
winds become west to northwest. will need to monitor the need
for a small craft advisory and beach hazard statement for this
period.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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187
fxus63 kiwx 141056
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
656 am edt fri aug 14 2026

.key messages...

- showers and storms will slowly dissipate and exit the area
this morning. mainly dry conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening but a stray shower or storm can`t be
ruled out.

- more storms are likely on saturday and sunday. some of these
storms could be severe during the afternoon and early evening
hours. isolated heavy rain and flooding is also possible but
the overall flood risk is lower than recent days.

- dry conditions return monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 250 am edt fri aug 14 2026

intensifying llj and associated theta-e surge yielding widespread
convection across central in as expected this morning with a decent
eml nosing into our sw cwa. surface obs/mesoanalysis show frontal
boundary and associated surface instability gradient currently well
south of our area and strongest convection remains focused in ind`s
cwa. still getting a few storms and moderate rain along more
elevated portions of the front in our southern cwa where around 1000
j/kg of mucape still exists. these storms pose little/no severe risk
but will keep a close eye on rainfall amounts given how soaked that
portion of our cwa is. all of this activity should wind down shortly
after sunrise as the llj weakens and midlevel lapse rates stabilize
somewhat. the rest of the day should remain mostly dry as midlevel
ridge builds slightly over our area with general ava. still, the
airmass remains moist and there are some hints of a weak mcv
arriving late in the day. these two factors could support some
isolated convection during the afternoon and evening but coverage
and impacts should remain very low. flood watch currently runs until
15z but may be able to cancel a few hours early if convective trends
behave as expected.

unfortunately, active weather will continue through the weekend.
stalled frontal boundary plaguing our area all week will lift north
as a warm front given exiting eastern canada upper low and eastward
ejection of what could be a very potent mcv out of the central
plains. mesoscale details are still somewhat unclear given a high
degree of spread among various models. however, the overall synoptic
stage is set for potential severe weather somewhere in the region.
another surge of the llj is expected, pushing at least moderate
instability into the area while 0-6km bulk shear values remain
strong enough on the ne fringes of this ridge to support organized
convection. one wild card is that convection will likely be ongoing
during the morning and that could limit instability during the
afternoon. hi-res cam`s are split on whether we will get organized
redevelopment later in the day. if organized convection can develop
then straight-line winds would be the main concern, but hail and
tornadoes can`t be ruled out. luckily, best chances for storms are
currently leaning toward our northern cwa which can handle more rain
better than our south. these storms will also be more progressive
with less potential training/backbuilding. will obviously have to
watch the hydro aspect given our water-logged south but overall
doesn`t appear to be a huge flooding risk at this point.

the front returns south as a cold front on sunday. once again,
severe weather is a possibility given moderate levels of mlcape and
deep layer shear. a lot will depend on the exact timing with the
potential for an early afternoon frontal passage that limits
instability for most of our cwa and focuses better severe chances
just to our s/se. still plenty of time for refinements to this
forecast though. thankfully, quiet weather finally returns sunday
night and persists through at least tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 652 am edt fri aug 14 2026

an area of rain is slowly seeping south and east away from ksbn
and kfwa. primarily dry conditions are expected through the taf
period with ifr ceilings improving at ksbn as the morning
progresses. -tsra could be approaching from the west of ksbn by
the very end of this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 11 am edt this morning for inz013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
oh...flood watch until 11 am edt this morning for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 141049
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
649 am edt fri aug 14 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms return late saturday into saturday
night. heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding is possible,
particularly along and south of the i-94 corridor.

- additional showers and thunderstorms likely on sunday before
dry weather returns early next week.

&&

.aviation...

greatest low level moisture holds across the detroit terminals this
morning supporting mvfr cigs and patchy fog. still some model signal
for a shot at a few showers to develop near the start of the
forecast period so have keep vcsh mentions. improvement to these
lower ceilings occurs over the course of the morning as convective
debris cloud vacates allowing diurnal heating to promote sct skies.
surface high pressure maintains lighter e/ne winds today through
tonight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated during the taf
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less early this morning, low by late
morning.

* low for visibility restrictions of 1/2sm or less or ceilings at
less than 300 ft.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 am edt fri aug 14 2026

discussion...

a tropical airmass is in place across the midwest, as the 00z kdvn
raob reported an extreme 700 mb dew pt of 11 c. southeasterly
trajectories beneath an upper-level ridge axis over the northern
mississippi river valley will keep the deep moisture south of the
michigan border today. a strong upper-level wave coming out of
eastern colorado early this morning will pool another round of deep
moisture (pw values 2.25 to 2.5 inches), which will make a run
toward- and at least impact locations near-the southern michigan
border by saturday evening. several hi-res model solutions hold the
instability gradient just south of the michigan border. however, the
notable exceptions are the nam and canadian models, which are
stronger and farther north with the shortwave/mcv. this would
present a heavy rain threat with mucapes over 1000 j/kg. 700 mb dew
pts are seen rising to around 10 c, which is near record high from a
climatological prospective. however, with the warm and most airmass
in the mid-levels, mid-level lapse rates are weak. local
probabilistic guidance suggests nam is an outlier with the amount of
instability and excessive rainfall. most solutions indicating
rainfall amounts generally under 1 inch, except perhaps right near
the southern michigan border. 18z euro ensemble members suggest a 10-
20 percent chance for 24-hour qpf to reach or exceed 1 inch across
all of southeast michigan. however, the 00z ukmet is also bullish on
heavy rainfall, indicating a swath of 2+ inches of rain across the
south half of the cwa/detroit metro area. the spc day 2 outlook has
highlighted a marginal risk of severe for lenawee and parts of
washtenaw/monroe counties. if a stronger circulation and
corresponding enhanced 0-6 km bulk shear verify, then damaging winds
and even a tornado would be possible. obviously, a good deal of
uncertainty exists this far out.

assuming low clouds and/or any fog this morning dissipate by mid-
morning and a canopy of higher clouds from storms over the ohio
valley is not too impactful, highs in the mid 80s seem reasonable
today. similar temperatures are expected for saturday as clouds
thicken up during the day and potential showers arrive by day`s end
with light southeasterly flow at the surface.

modest height falls for the second half of the weekend into early
next week will bring modest troughing over the great lakes region
extending east into new england. it looks like a cold front tracking
through sunday into sunday evening will be support numerous showers
and strong thunderstorms before dry weather returns for monday and
tuesday as large high pressure over the western ohio valley extends
into southeast michigan.

marine...

high pressure is building across the great lakes and ontario leading
to generally quiet conditions across the region. the high will be
slowly shifting eastward eventually reaching the eastern lakes by
saturday morning. the stalled frontal boundary is still lingering to
the south but convection also should remain to the south of the area
today. once the high pushes off to the east saturday, the next low
will be developing to the west and should pass through the area in
the evening and overnight. light and variable winds will become
northeasterly today and increasing to 10 to 20 knots across southern
lake huron. winds then turn southerly late saturday and increase to
around 20 knots ahead of a cold front saturday night. winds then
shift to the northwest on sunday behind the front.

hydrology...

deep tropical moisture characterized by precipitable water values
rising to between 2.0 and 2.5 inches will pool along and near the
michigan/ohio border saturday afternoon into saturday night. this
anomalously moist airmass will support high rainfall efficiency,
with heavy rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour in any robust
convection. while the model consensus keeps the primary axis of
heaviest rainfall just south of the state line, a few models have
trended farther north. thus, concern for heavy rainfall leading to
localized flooding, particularly along and south of the i-94
corridor. however, confidence is not high enough for a flood watch
at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sf
marine.......drk
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.