Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
803
fxus61 kcle 271149
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
749 am edt thu aug 27 2026

.what has changed...
weakening showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will exit the
area to the east this morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and embedded thunderstorms will exit the area this
morning, with isolated showers

2) above average temperatures return next week with highs once again
expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
shower activity, mainly across far northeast ohio and northwest
pa early this morning, with embedded thunderstorms will move
east of the area during the early morning hours, with primarily
dry conditions expected across the forecast area through the
remainder of the morning. additional showers and a few storms
may develop ahead of a slow moving cold front this afternoon,
primarily across the far southern and eastern portions of the
forecast area, but this activity would be fairly isolated if it
manifests. severe risk is low given lack of deep layer flow, but
sufficient destabilization may result in a non-zero chance of
stronger brief updrafts that could result in a few strong wind
gusts.

key message 2...
as ridging builds across the region this weekend into next week,
temperatures will be on the rise with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s by monday and tuesday. heat indices in the mid 90s will
be possible during this time before the ridge flattens a bit
over the great lakes by mid/late week.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
a cold front will move across the area from northwest to
southeast through this afternoon, shifting winds to a more
west-northwest direction at 5-10kt. out of the gate, there is
some patchy fog/mist across northwest oh that will mix out by
14z. a few clouds between 1500-2500 feet are evident farther
east, though outside of eri are unlikely to become a ceiling.
sct-bkn cumulus around 4000-5000 feet is expected to develop
from near cle-mfd points east-southeast this afternoon, with a
low risk for a few showers or storms to develop across
southeastern portions of our area as the cold front moves
through this afternoon. maintained a prob30 group for yng for
this potential, with lower confidence precluding a taf mention
elsewhere. winds will be light tonight, but will shift to a more
east-northeast direction overnight at cle, eri, and possibly
tol as a trough axis moves south off of lake erie. this trough
may bring a few sprinkles/showers and mvfr ceilings as it
pushes off the lake, and do bring an mvfr ceiling into eri/cle
early friday morning. otherwise, some fog may try developing
late tonight/early friday farther inland. confidence in that
is overall low, though do have a period of mvfr br at yng.

outlook...mainly vfr, but with patchy non-vfr possible in
fog/mist early in the mornings on saturday and sunday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front is crossing the lake this morning, shifting winds
to a more northwest direction. winds of 10-15kt, briefly a bit
higher, will continue through early this afternoon before
briefly subsiding late this afternoon. waves of 1 to 3 feet in
the open waters in southwest wind will be pushed towards the
lakeshore from cleveland points northeast as winds shift with
the front. winds shift more north-northeast at 10-15kt tonight
as a surface trough crosses the lake, building more 1 to 3 foot
waves, especially over the western and central basins. winds and
waves are expected to remain a bit shy of advisory criteria, but
will be large enough to make conditions unpleasant for small
craft and to perhaps bring a moderate risk of rip currents to
the shoreline from cleveland points west. northeast winds will
remain brisk through a good portion of friday before generally
favorable marine conditions arrive for the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...03
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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259
fxus63 kiwx 271030
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 am edt thu aug 27 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry today with just a low chance (10-15%) of a shower this
afternoon.

- seasonable temperatures continue today through saturday, but then
warming early next week.

- low chance of showers and thunderstorms return late
weekend/early next week but confidence is low.

- there is a moderate swim risk today for southeast lake
michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 315 am edt thu aug 27 2026

primary near term forecast issues center on fog this morning and the
potential of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon.

sfc pressure field has become weaker this morning in wake of weak
cold front that tracked across the area over past 6 to 12 hours.
light winds and residual near sfc moisture have promoted some
patchy fog development across the area. recent rainfall along
the us 24 corridor yesterday should aid in fog formation and
the southeast expansion of the patchy fog early this morning.
issued an sps earlier this morning highlighting rapidly varying
visibilities with patchy dense fog potential. trends will
continue to be monitored for potential of a focused dense fog
advisory.

for today, low level cold advection will continue. mixed layer
depths should increase enough to allow for temps to be fairly
similar to that of yesterday around the 80 degree mark. the initial
mid/upper level trough axis that aided in yesterday`s showers and
storms have shifted east of the region. water vapor imagery early
this morning does depict another upper level disturbance dropping
southeast across southern minnesota/northern iowa which will likely
shift across the western great lakes during peak heating while
another subtle mid level trough tracks across central lake michigan
vicinity early this afternoon. a secondary low level trough should
shift southeast across southeast lower michigan this afternoon in
response to this mid/upper level evolution. if decent heating, temps
in lower 80s, and steep low level lapse rates do materialize as
expected today, some isolated shower activity is possible this
afternoon/early evening particularly across nw indiana/ne illinois
in closer proximity to the stronger mid level trough and where some
lake reinforced boundary is possible. confidence remains low in
coverage, and for this issuance have kept pops in the 10-15 percent
range. skies should clear this evening, with some potential of
shallow patchy fog once again early friday morning, but currently
not expecting this to be quite as prevalent as this morning.

mid level ridging across the corn belt will slowly approach the
western great lakes late friday/early saturday, and approach of this
feature will result in weak low level thermal advections
thursday night into early saturday. a slowly modifying low level
thermal trough will allow for a continuation of near seasonable
temperatures friday into saturday.

broad upper ridging is then expected to overspread mid/upper ms
valley late weekend as a stronger upper trough across pacific nw
lifts into south central canada by monday. veering low level flow
will allow for some better moisture transport into the area late
sunday into early monday. precip chances remain an item of very low
confidence however given uncertainty as to how efficient these
northern latitude short waves will dampen the upper ridge, and also
the potential of very warm mid level thermal profiles acting to
create a good deal of cin for near sfc/sfc based parcels. it is
possible some convection for elevated parcels develops late sunday
into monday but greater confidence in higher pops may remain to the
north across the northern/eastern great lakes where warm/moist
advective forcing should be maximized. broadbrushed slight
chance/low chance pops have been maintained through much of the
mon-wed period with a potential of moderate to strong
instability and an instability gradient somewhere across the
region. however, confidence in day to day pops remains quite low
given greater uncertainty in longwave ridge amplitude for the
latter periods. an extended period of above normal temperatures
remains in item of higher confidence for much of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 630 am edt thu aug 27 2026

early morning stratus/fog will be the primary aviation weather
concern for the 12z tafs. surface cold frontal feature has
shifted east of the terminals early this morning. as of 10z, the
most expansive stratus/fog has occurred immediately behind the
front across extreme northeast indiana/northwest ohio. across
the remainder of northern indiana fog has been more patchy in
nature likely in part due to some increasing dry air advection
near surface creating not as favorable moisture vertical
profiles. will need to watch for trends for potential of brief
ifr conditions at kfwa through 13z. otherwise, broad cyclonic
flow continues today with another short wave trough expected to
approach northwest indiana this afternoon. an isolated shower is
possible today, but continued dry air advection and overall weak
nature to synoptic forcing/forcing mechanisms suggests any rain
showers should be of very low coverage if they occur. a weak
anticyclone will build into the region this evening providing
light and variable winds. some patchy shallow fog may develop
again early friday morning, but confidence in any terminal
impacts is quite low and will refrain from any 12z taf mention.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 271045
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
645 am edt thu aug 27 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures today into saturday with prevailing dry
weather apart from a slight chance for a brief shower this afternoon
or evening.

- a warming trend sends temperatures above normal early next week
with increasing chances for showers and storms.

&&

.aviation...

increasing surface high pressure and isentropic downglide will lead
to quiet weather over much of southeast michigan.today. lingering
surface moisture is expected to result in a decent amount of
boundary layer cumulus today with daytime heating. the increasing
surface high pressure will also lead to a developing/organizing
backdoor cold front feature off of lake huron by late afternoon and
evening. isolated shower activity will be possible along this
boundary particularly near the lake huron shoreline. cooling
temperatures tonight with peak climo evapotranspiration will bring
the potential for some fog at daybreak friday morning, however,
enough north gradient wind is anticipated to limit development.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 am edt thu aug 27 2026

discussion...

a longwave trough is situated over the great lakes this morning with
an embedded midlevel shortwave exiting toward lake ontario. at the
surface, the cold front that passed through last night is now midway
across lake erie. thermal change behind this front is relatively
weak, and guidance supports another seasonable day with highs near
80. diurnal instability will be stifled by mid-level warming via
post-wave subsidence, but enough low-level moisture will exist for a
healthy flare-up of cumulus. a few shallow late afternoon and
evening showers will also be possible, mainly over the thumb where
veering northerly flow off the lake provides some convergence to act
as a trigger.

a backdoor cold front marking a much drier air mass will arrive this
evening and precede high pressure that settles in on friday. light
northerly wind allows dew points to settle into the 50s, offering
very pleasant and less humid conditions that continue into saturday.
by saturday afternoon, a slight southwest breeze develops as the
surface ridge settles east. a weak disturbance working into the
region later in the day leads to fgen and some convection near a
developing warm front, but this is favored to set up over northern
mi so have maintained a dry forecast.

a warming trend remains on track for early next week as a
subtropical ridge migrates from the four corners into the southern
plains and eventually the tennessee valley. thickness advection
commences sunday, pushing temps above average, then strengthening
southwest flow north of the ridge advects 850mb temps around 20c or
above for monday and tuesday. nbm and lref ensemble guidance
continue to advertise 25-50% probability for highs in excess of 90
degrees each day, with highest likelihood over the urban corridor.
the caveat for the heat forecast will be potential for periodic mcs
activity as several ridge-running shortwaves are shown in mid-level
flow during this period. a cold front on tuesday or wednesday looks
to break the heat and may bring a more focused signal for convection.

marine...

post-frontal northwest winds in place today with peak gusts of 20-
25kts over the northern half of lake huron. winds gradually weaken
this evening as high pressure becomes established over the central
great lakes. said high then drifts overhead friday into early
saturday maintaining lighter winds and quiet weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.