Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
558
fxus61 kcle 180526
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
126 am edt sun oct 18 2026

.what has changed...
there are no significant changes with the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight. quiet
weather with high pressure is expected this weekend through
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will build across the region this weekend with
nice fall weather. tonight`s temperatures will be the coldest
dropping down to the lower 30s for most locations south of the
lakeshore. freeze headlines remain in effect tonight for all
locations south of the immediate lakeshore. sunny and cool
weather is expected on sunday with high temps around 60 degrees.
more areas of frost will be likely sunday night into early
monday morning with temps in the lower to middle 30s. the
weather pattern for the week ahead will be quiet and dry, with
seasonably mild temperatures. high pressure will remain in
control over the ohio valley and great lakes region next week.
high temperatures will be generally in the 60s to near 70
degrees. overnight low temps will be in the 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
high pressure centered across the northeast will remain in
control through the taf period. vfr is ongoing and will
continue. patchy fog or mist may develop in a few valleys early
this morning, but is not likely to impact any taf sites. winds
will trend south-southwesterly on the backside of the high
pressure with speeds increasing to 6-12kt by this afternoon.

outlook...high pressure remains in control with vfr and light
winds through the week.

&&

.marine...
winds will gradually diminish to less than 15 knots by this
afternoon. the winds will shift from the south to southwest 10
to 15 knots tonight through monday as high pressure slides just
south of lake erie. overall light flow 10 knots or less is
expected for much of next week as high pressure remains in
control of our weather pattern.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for ohz003-006>011-
013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz012-089.
pa...freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for paz001.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
385
fxus63 kiwx 180418
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1218 am edt sun oct 18 2026

.key messages...

- widespread frost is expected tonight into early sunday
morning. low temperatures for locations along and east of
interstate 69 are expected to reach near freezing. patchy
frost is possible sunday night and monday night.

- an extended period of dry weather is expected to continue
through this work week as temperatures moderate to near normal
or just above normal.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

clear skies and deep layer subsidence are expected to continue
tonight as great lakes/ohio valley remain positioned between
longwave ridging across central conus. an expansive low level
anticyclone from mo to the western pa will allow for winds to
quickly decouple this evening. the extent of temperatures drops
tonight is still a bit uncertain as low level thermal trough is
departing to the east this evening and will continue to
moderate. this should be overcome by ideal radiational cooling
condition this evening. some weak southwest flow on back side
of the sfc high is possible across western great lakes later
tonight, but this should not have a dramatic impact on
temperatures. previous forecast still appears on track with best
chance of mins at or just below freezing roughly along and east
of interstate 69, with generally mid 30s elsewhere. frost
advisories and freeze warnings remain in effect for tonight into
early sunday morning.

the primary storm track sunday into monday will remain across
central canada as broad longwave trough remains anchored across
northern tier of conus. some upstream height rises across upper
midwest following departure of central canadian short wave will
allow for sfc anticyclone to be reinforced across
southern/western great lakes early week. this could result in a
lower end patchy frost potential sunday night and monday night
as strong decoupling should compensate for slightly modifying
low level/near sfc thermal profiles. for the middle of the week,
a tendency for negative eastern pacific upper height anomaly
should develop which will allow for downstream maintenance of
mean upper level ridging and little change in position of low
level anticyclone. a slow day to day temperature moderation is
expected in this pattern. the much drier airmass will maintain
its grip across the region given stagnant longwave pattern much
of this week, but given temperatures only slightly above normal
and weak winds through the period, significant fire weather
concerns are not expected.

some lower forecast confidence exists for the day 7 to 9 timeframe
with deterministic/ensemble guidance showing larger spread in
eventual eastward ejection of eastern pacific negative height
anomaly. some indications another fropa could be possible late next
weekend/early the following week, but this will depend on how the
eastern pacific energy phases with broader northern stream trough.
a dry forecast has been preserved through this forecast valid
period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1217 am edt sun oct 18 2026

dry and stable air mass will continue to promote vfr conditions
and clear skies. return south-southwest flow on the backside of
sfc high pressure may support a few gusts up to 20 knots this
afternoon at ksbn otherwise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory until 9 am edt /8 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005-012>015-020-022-103-104-203-204.
freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for inz006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
401
fxus63 kdtx 180355
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect late tonight for the area generally
south and east of a line from howell to sandusky. this extends to
the ohio border outside of metro detroit.

- a warming trend begins sunday and continues along with dry weather
throughout the week.

&&

.aviation...

deep h5 to h3 ridging will build directly through the central great
lakes tonight. midlevel flow trajectories will remain anticyclonic
throughout the period with deep subsidence between 3.0 and 15.0 kft
agl. expectations are for vfr conditions with minimal signal for fog
sunday morning. southwest gradient is expected to increase above 12
knots sunday with gusts of 25 knots possible at kmbs.

d21/dtw convection...there will be no thunderstorms through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

discussion...

a ridge of surface high pressure is providing an outstanding fall
day across se mi as full sun counters slightly below normal
temperatures. afternoon highs in the mid 50s to near 60 lead into
dry and clear conditions with light wind this evening.

another round of frost is expected tonight but with the frost
advisory focus on a target area mainly south of the tri cities and
northern thumb. frost coverage is greatest toward the ohio border
and outside of metro detroit, where the wind drops off under clear
sky closer to the in/oh surface high center. there is more of a
pressure gradient placed toward the tri cities and northern thumb
where sw wind holds in the 5 to 15 mph range. the wind is a
considerable limiting factor for frost in that area late tonight and
early sunday morning.

the sw wind toward the tri cities tonight strengthens across all
areas during sunday. this occurs within the increased pressure
gradient between the ohio valley surface ridge and the next cold
front extending into the upper midwest from the large low pressure
system near hudson bay. the start of a warming trend is the primary
outcome for lower mi reflected in guidance max t around 60 sunday
afternoon and in the mid 60s monday. dry weather is ensured through
the early week period as the midwest front stalls and dissipates
well to our north through tuesday.

a split flow configuration in the larger scale mid/upper level
pattern places the great lakes in a favorable position to build on
the warming trend mid to late week. a progressive northern stream is
positioned well north across canada while a closed low dominates the
ca coast into the 4 corners. the mid level ridge scenario for the
great lakes has higher than normal predictability for dry weather
and above normal temperatures that make a run toward 70 thursday and
friday.

marine...

high pressure settles across the ohio valley tonight into sunday,
setting up a tight wsw pressure gradient over the great lakes as
deep low pressure tracks from northern saskatchewan toward hudson
bay. wind magnitude over lake huron quickly increases through the
rest of the afternoon, with gusts on the order of 20 to 30 kt. this
continues into sunday with another slight uptick in wind speed
during the day as the core of highest winds aloft passes overhead.
this ushers in a milder, more stable air mass which will prevent the
bulk of higher momentum from mixing to the surface. however, low
probability does exist for gusts to reach 35 kt gales at times
within longer fetch areas near the straits and from saginaw bay into
central lake huron. at this time, confidence is too low for a gale
warning. elsewhere, gusts between 15 and 25 kt will be more common.
the peak in wind is expected between 8am and 4pm sunday with a
coincident uptick in wave heights. wind then begins to subside late
sunday evening as the jet departs and high pressure builds northward
into the great lakes. this brings about more tranquil marine
conditions through early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from 3 am to 8 am edt sunday for miz055-062-063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.