Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
492
fxus61 kcle 171146
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
746 am edt sun may 17 2026

.what has changed...
a marginal risk for severe weather has been introduced across
northwest ohio for late monday afternoon/evening. a slight risk for
severe weather has been introduced across a majority of the area for
tuesday afternoon/evening, with a marginal risk farther southeast.

&&

.key messages...
1) temperatures will be well above seasonal averages through
early this week. the warmest days will be monday and tuesday when
highs may approach daily records at a few sites.

2) mainly dry with lower confidence shower and storm potential both
today and monday. higher confidence and more widespread shower and
storm potential is evident later tuesday into early wednesday, with
potential for severe weather tuesday afternoon and evening.

3) drier and much cooler weather spreads in wednesday and thursday.
rain chances gradually return to the forecast friday and saturday,
but with low confidence in the details that far out.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

broad and prolonged deep-layer southwesterly flow has taken hold for
the second half of the weekend and will continue through tuesday,
supporting well above-average temperatures. today will be the first
notably warm day, with highs in the low to mid 80s. coverage of
convection should be limited enough today to allow for a more uniform
warm day than on saturday. monday appears to be the warmest day
overall, with highs expected to range from the mid 80s to near 90.
tuesday will be nearly as warm as monday, but temperatures aloft will
cool just a touch, which along with likely some more clouds and
greater afternoon convective potential keeps the forecast a bit
cooler than monday...still into the mid to upper 80s. overnight lows
tonight will range from the low to mid 60s inland to the upper 60s
closer to the lake and in the more urban cleveland metro...lows
monday night will only dip into the mid to upper 60s inland and stay
in the upper 60s/lower 70s closer to the lake, especially in and
around the cleveland area. even with the cooler lake, we typically
see the mildest overnight lows in the lower terrain closer to the
lake with southerly winds. dew points will generally be in the low to
mid 60s during peak heating hours today and monday, which won`t be
enough to add much if any "heat index". dew points creep up a bit
more into the mid-upper 60s on tuesday, so it will feel more humid.

those who work outside or don`t have adequate cooling will want to be
ready for the much warmer temperatures monday and tuesday. heat index
values will be well shy of our 100 degree advisory criteria, but
early season heat can have greater impacts. this is highlighted by
the nws heat risk product highlighting the area in moderate to
borderline major risk for heat-related impacts.

key message #2:

we are starting dry today. a weakening vort max is tracking to our
south across the ohio valley early this morning, and should continue
shearing out and drifting east as heights rise. still, daytime
heating will yield moderate and uncapped instability by this
afternoon. can`t rule out some convection trying to fire across our
southern counties as the vort max continues to pass just to our south
through this morning as has been seen across southern ohio, and
from near the western lakeshore east across northeast oh and
northwest pa this afternoon. confidence in this convection occurring
is not high with minimal forcing in the face of rising heights, with
the forecast generally maintaining a 20-30% mention across parts of
the area for it. if we do see any convection develop today it will
quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.

monday will be another mainly dry day, with some convective potential
during the afternoon and evening. the main focus will be northwest
and north central ohio late monday afternoon and evening, as
convection will fire to our west monday afternoon and may push in
before weakening. a weak shortwave moving across the central great
lakes late monday and monday night may add enough lift to assist in
carrying convection that develops upstream into northwest/north
central ohio. can not rule out isolated convection monday afternoon
across eastern oh and into western pa where a pool of deeper moisture
and greater instability is hinted at on several models, but
confidence here is currently too low (<20%) for a forecast mention.
a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been introduced
across northwest ohio for monday afternoon/evening, driven by
potential for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. this risk is
supported by moderate instability and well-mixed low levels
supporting downbursts and gusty outflow winds, and just enough flow
farther west for storms to organize into multi-cell clusters.
convection should quickly wane monday night, but with a shortwave
passing just to our north the forecast hangs onto a low chance for
some rain across lake erie and our northern counties overnight.

the main potential for convection out of the next few days will be
tuesday afternoon into tuesday night. the cold front will approach
tuesday evening and cross from northwest to southeast tuesday night
into early wednesday. forcing will not be tremendously strong as a
potent shortwave passes through the upper midwest and northern great
lakes, but will be greater than prior days thanks to the approaching
cold front. there`s good agreement in uncapped and moderate to
strong instability developing tuesday afternoon across the area due
to strong heating of a warm and moist airmass, with modestly stronger
flow aloft fostering up to 30kt of effective deep-layer shear.

generally expect convection to fire along and ahead of the cold front
approaching from the northwest tuesday afternoon and spread in late
tuesday afternoon and evening. more isolated activity may develop
farther east during the peak heating hours, though forcing that far
ahead of the front will be minimal so confidence is lower. convection
should gradually lose intensity after sunset, though most of the
area should see some showers and thunder as the front progresses
through. the spc has placed a good portion of the area, west of
approximately an ashtabula to mansfield line, in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
farther southeast. damaging winds are expected to be the main
concern. deep-layer flow will be parallel to the approaching front
with precipitable water values climbing to near or above 1.50", above
the 90th percentile of climatology for mid-may. this could support
localized training convection with a heavy rain risk too.

key message #3:

shower potential exits to the southeast on wednesday as the cold
front exits. high pressure builds into the great lakes and northeast
later wednesday and persists through thursday, bringing cooler and
drier conditions locally. a more unsettled pattern likely returns for
the end of the week or weekend as a subtle trough digs into the
central u.s., with ridging aloft focused off the east coast. however,
guidance disagrees considerably on the timing and intensity of any
systems that move through the more active flow locally, with some
guidance also taking longer to displace the aforementioned high
pressure as well and keeping us drier. overall, after below average
temperatures for wednesday and thursday a warming trend is expected
to begin on friday. rain chances gradually return to the forecast
friday into saturday, though will need refined in the coming days.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
patchy mvfr fog at a few terminals this morning will improve
through 13z. scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east
through central ohio and may pass within the vicinity of mfd
through 13z. there is not enough confidence that these will hold
together to reach cak but will be monitoring evolution over the
next hour or two. there remains a low potential through the
afternoon for a few additional stray showers and thunderstorms
to develop in an arc from toledo to cleveland to youngstown
between 19-22z but coverage is expected to be low. tafs will
need to be amended as timing and location of any thunderstorms
are determined. otherwise, most sites will have a vfr sct-bkn
cloud deck of 3500-5000 feet between 17-21z. a warm front lifts
north tonight with clearing skies.

south to southwest winds of 5-10 knots will continue with western
terminals more likely to see gusts to 18-20 knots between
17-21z. eri is the exception and is expected to see a wind
shift off the lake at 280-290 degrees for the afternoon. winds
will drop below 10 knots again tonight and back to southerly.

outlook...non-vfr possible in isolated showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. non-vfr likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late
tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
light southwest winds today will back to southeasterly at 10-15
knots tonight. southwesterly winds on monday increase to 10-20
knots on the western half of the lake. winds may ramp up just a
little more on tuesday ahead of a cold front and will need to
monitor the need for a small craft advisory. the offshore flow
will keep the higher waves over the open waters on tuesday with
winds decreasing as the flow shifts to northwesterly behind the
front on wednesday. conditions will be somewhat choppy with 2-4
foot waves wednesday night into thursday with northeasterly flow
ahead of high pressure building to the north.

&&

.climate...
high temperatures on monday and tuesday will approach record
values. the following are the records for may 18 and 19 at local
climate sites.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
905
fxus63 kiwx 170934
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
534 am edt sun may 17 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry, warm, and humid today.

- strong to severe storms possible on monday and tuesday with a slight
risk on both days. locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind
gusts are possible, primarily during the afternoon and evening
hours.

- cooler with much more seasonable temperatures and dry midweek.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 307 am edt sun may 17 2026

satellite and radar imagery shows strong to severe thunderstorms
persisting across parts of missouri, iowa, and illinois early this
morning, with high level clouds on the eastern fringes of this
complex drifting into our forecast area. a warm, humid, and mainly
dry day is ahead. as a stalled boundary surges northward into lower
michigan, a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. however, as
confidence increases that much of the activity will bypass us to the
north and northeast, i have decreased pops to be 14% or less
throughout the day. as an area of low pressure lifts into the upper
midwest, a tightening pressure gradient will develop, allowing for
south winds to gust as high as 25 mph this afternoon. breezy
southerly winds will allow for continued strong waa into the
forecast area, with highs climbing into the mid 80s today. moisture
also continued to get pulled northward today, with dewpoints well
into the mid 60s today.

an active weather pattern develops monday and tuesday with several
opportunties for severe weather. an upper level trough digs across
the four corners region on monday, sending even stronger surges of
moisture and warmth into the upper great lakes region as a
connection to the gulf deepens. our forecast area will be well into
the warm sector on monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. activity to our west
sunday night into monday morning will have to be closely monitored,
as this will be the impetus for severe weather in our forecast area
monday afternoon and evening. a prefrontal trough and several 500mb
shortwaves will provide a source of lift. models diverge on exactly
where and how much convection will hold together, but if it does, it
will be moving into a incredibly unstable environment. sbcape of
1500-2000 j/kg will be present alongside steepening low level lapse
rates. shear may be the limiting factor monday as forecast soundings
depict a unidirectional vertical wind profile. spc maintains a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across our northwest
half of the forecast area, with the risk decreasing to marginal
(level 1 of 5) further southeast. a linear storm mode is most likely
with damaging winds as the main threat. with pwats around 1.5", even
if storms are not severe, they will likely be heavy rain producers
with rain rates in excess of 1"/hr.

our forecast area will be in a favorable region for severe weather
again on tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of an incoming cold
front. forecast soundings depict a very similar environment to
monday, with sbcape of 1500-2000 j/kg during peak heating hours.
highs will once again be in the mid to upper 80s with the gulf
connection fueling dewpoints well into the 60s. with the cold front
as the source of lift, forecast soundings depict slightly better
helicity up to 200 m2/s2. at this point, all hazards are possible,
but with a mostly unidirectional wind profile again, damaging winds
appear the most likely threat.

post frontal passage, drier and much more seasonable conditions
arrive midweek. high pressure builds in on wednesday and thursday
across the great lakes region. highs will be in the 60s; while
seasonable, it will feel much cooler than the previous stretch of
warm and humid days.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 532 am edt sun may 17 2026

no changes needed for the 12z tafs. a dry day is ahead with
prevailing vfr ceilings. scattered high clouds are moving
through on the eastern fringes of ongoing convection across
missouri, iowa, and illinois. this convection should bypass the
area well to northeast this morning as it lifts northward along
a stalled boundary. today will be dry and breezy; southerly
winds are expected to gust as high as 20 to 25 kts during peak
diurnal heating this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
110
fxus63 kdtx 171340
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
940 am edt sun may 17 2026

.key messages...

- notably warmer and more humid conditions will peak monday and tuesday,
with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.

- the potential exists for thunderstorms to become severe this
afternoon and evening, capable of producing damaging winds to 60
mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

- the risk for severe weather exists again monday and tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours, with strong winds, large
hail and heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.update...

a very well defined meso scale convective vorticity maximum (mcv) now
rotating from ne iowa into sw wisconsin will track across northern
lower michigan late this afternoon and evening. expectation are that
the southern edge of the mid level height fall region will move
across the saginaw valley and thumb region this evening, supporting a
broad region of large scale ascent. meanwhile, warm sector
temperatures in the 80s with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to
weak to moderate instability expanding northward today, interacting
with a quasi stationary front draped across the saginaw valley and
thumb. this will contribute to at least scattered convection.

very steep mid level lapse rates on the order of 7.5 to 8 c/km will
contribute to 0-3km mu cape on the order of 2k j/kg. various hi res
solutions indicate sb cape values ranging from 1200 to 2k j/kg
pooling along the aforementioned surface front. this along with high
0-3km storm relative helicity values and an enhancement to the mid
level wind fields along the southern edge of the mcv (producing 0-6km
bulk shear values of 45 to 60 knots) will support supercells and all
modes of severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes). given the good elevated cape density, even
locations a bit farther north of the surface front stand a chance
for damaging winds and large hail. the chances for thunderstorms and
thus the overall severe weather risk will decrease south of the i-69
corridor where forced ascent will be much weaker or non existent.
the updated spc day 1 convective outlook has increased the severe
risk to slight north of the i-69 corridor and has introduced an
isolated risk of tornadoes.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 555 am edt sun may 17 2026

aviation...

predominately vfr conditions will prevail through this taf period as
increasing moisture brings higher coverage of mid clouds with some
scattered low clouds possible. a warm front lifting through michigan
will present a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. the greater chance to be impacted by this
activity will be across mbs and fnt with a lower probability towards
detroit, though cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm
this evening towards the detroit area. frontal boundary will make
for variable winds at times throughout the day with a more steady
south wind developing tonight. gusty southwest winds expected by
mid-late morning tomorrow.

d21/dtw convection...an isolated thunderstorm is plausible by this
evening, but better potential will be across the saginaw valley.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

* low for ceilings aob 5000ft through sunday.

prev discussion...
issued at 305 am edt sun may 17 2026

discussion...

early morning sfc analysis shows a southward propagating frontal
boundary marked by slightly cooler and drier conditions settling
into the saginaw valley and northern thumb regions. to the south,
prevailing low level southwest flow sustaining weak low level
moisture advection within the backdrop of an already seasonably warm
thermal profile. existing frontal boundary will effectively stall
locally today, most likely somewhere within the i-69 to m-46
corridor based on a general consensus of model output. the boundary
interface will offer the greatest focus for potential diurnal
convective development this afternoon and evening, as supplemental
forced ascent augments moderate boundary layer destabilization to
overcome lingering capping issues. an additional focus possibly tied
to a mid level speed max projected to race northeast from northern
il into northeast lower mi late today. a glancing shot of deeper
ascent with this wave could assist in convective initiation and
maintenance again targeting areas north of i-69. there remains a
smaller subset of model solutions that provide a lower probability
for development within the area of greatest instability residing
south of the boundary - mlcape 1000-1500 j/kg metro detroit and
points south. plausible scenario exists for a convective remnant
from ongoing activity well upstream tonight to spill into the
corridor, but certainly carries much lower confidence and will
continue to monitor evolution going forward. warm sector otherwise
lacking in tangible forcing today. forecast edges the higher
rainfall probs toward the north. an isolated severe risk still
highlighted within the latest spc day 1 outlook, accounting for the
possibility for a more organized updraft or two to support larger
hail and gusty winds. a noted uptick in 0-6 km bulk shear will
emerge north of the frontal boundary as the aforementioned wave
tracks by, but with low level winds still generally weak. svr threat
window mid afternoon to early evening.

higher magnitude warmth by may standards firmly entrenched for the
early week period, as deep layer southwest flow governs conditions
east of larger scale height falls noted over the west-central conus.
highs projected to reach the mid to upper 80s both monday and
tuesday. unclear signal yet on convective potential monday afternoon
and evening, owing to a still ill-defined forcing field carrying some
reliance on behavior of upstream convection tonight. a highly
unstable late day environment, yet perhaps weakly capped.
conditional setup on realizing meaningful forced ascent, with a
plausible scenario for most locations to remains dry. wind fields
overall remain rather lackluster in terms of strength, both at the
lower levels and at a greater depth, but could see a localized/brief
increase should a stronger mid level/convective wave move through.
local area highlighted within the latest day 2 spc outlook with a
slight/marginal risk designation, with greater probability across
the saginaw valley. the ambient environment virtually unchanged
heading into tuesday. late day or evening convective organization
and expansion plausible along either/both the pre-frontal trough or
cold frontal boundary. improving magnitude of the wind field with
time suggests greater potential for storm organization this period.

a stretch of cooler, drier and more stable conditions will emerge
wednesday behind the front. low to mid level ridging will maintain
these conditions through the late week period. projected
temperatures at this stage expected to arrive on the cooler side of
average - highs generally in the 60s. return flow on the backside of
the departing high brings a warming trend again next weekend.

marine...

a frontal zone stalls over southern lake huron today, with northwest
flow north of the front and warm southerly flow to the south. this
boundary will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development
this afternoon-evening. isolated strong to severe storms are
possible, with winds in excess of 35 knots and large hail to an inch
being the main severe concerns. the front then lifts north as a warm
front tonight allowing southerly flow to expand across all of lake
huron. the southerly flow regime holds steady through mid-week and
will draw an unstable airmass into the region, supporting several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the work
week. an enhanced low level jet generates widespread breezy
conditions, with gusts peaking aoa 30 knots close to the shoreline.
small craft advisories will likely be needed monday-tuesday.
gust potential decreases quickly offshore due to cool water
temperatures and therefore stable low level conditions. a cold front
then tracks through the region mid-week, bringing a bout of quiet
and seasonable conditions.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....aa
discussion...mr
marine.......mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.