Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
269
fxus61 kcle 140007
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
807 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of a
cold front on sunday. some storms may be strong to severe,
mainly along and east of the i-71 corridor.

2) a stronger low pressure system is expected to develop and
move east through the great lakes wednesday night into
thursday. some stronger storms are possible, especially
wednesday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
shower and thunderstorm chances will return later tonight into
sunday as a compact shortwave traverses the axis of a broad
upper-level trough rotating near southern hudson bay. some
uncertainty exists on the overall coverage of strong to severe
storms with lingering overnight scattered convection and cloud
cover expected to arrive east into the area sunday morning. the
current thinking is that two rounds of showers and storms are
expected on sunday with strong to damaging wind gusts being the
primary severe hazard, given generally straight and long
hodographs.

the first round of showers and storms will likely initiate off
of the remnant overnight convection, generally east of the i-77
corridor from around noon to 3 pm and should carry the higher
strong to severe storm chances. the second round appears to
initiate along the advancing cold front, generally along and
east of the i-71 corridor between 1 to 6 pm. although the
downstream environment won`t be as favorable with the second
round of storms along the cold front, could still see a few
isolated instances of stronger wind gusts given modest 700 mb
westerly flow of 35 to 40 knots. a lesser threat exists for
flash flooding, though anomalously- high pwats and generally
skinny cape profiles will lead to heavy rain.

key message 2...
continuing to monitor the potential for a highly-anomalous low
pressure system to develop and move east through the great lakes
late wednesday into thursday. model guidance is beginning to
come into agreement for mid to upper-level trough placement and
strength, though specific surface features still remain
uncertain. low-level moisture is forecast to quickly increase ahead
of the advancing surface low wednesday night, with dew points
climbing into the 60s.

at this time, it appears the most favorable cape/shear overlap
(reflected by ens probs of mucape > 1000 j/jg) and the highest
potential for severe weather will reside just to the south and
southwest of the area, though will continue to monitor trends
for this potentially significant system. do think the severe
potential on thursday (currently highlighted by the spc swody6),
is decreasing across our area, with the pace of the low
pressure system and associated outflow boundaries appearing to
favor higher severe weather chances further south and east of
the area.

in addition to the threat of strong to severe storms, we may
also have to contend with the strong associated wind field of
this system, with currently low to medium probs (20 to 40%) for
wind gusts to exceed 45 mph wednesday night into thursday
afternoon.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
vfr will prevail through the overnight, but showers and
associated lowering of cigs will begin to spread in from west to
east after sunrise sunday morning. this will eventually lead to
mvfr in all areas by mid morning or early afternoon as the
showers expand in coverage. embedded thunderstorms are expected
to develop in north central and ne ohio during the mid to late
morning then gradually move into nw pa during the afternoon, so
have the greatest coverage of tsra at kcle, kcak, kyng, and keri
from mid morning through mid afternoon. these areas will also
see periods of ifr during the afternoon. drier air and improving
cigs/vis will gradually work in from west to east sunday
evening.

sw winds will decrease to 5-15 knots tonight before gradually
turning nw and increasing to 15-25 knots as a strong cold front
drops across the region late sunday morning through the
afternoon.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
forecast tuesday afternoon through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with
winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early sunday. a
cold front will cross the lake on sunday, allowing winds to
shift to the northwest. a period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is
likely in the western basin of lake erie sunday
afternoon/evening, but confidence in small craft advisory
conditions occurring is low at this point. headlines may be
needed if winds trend a bit higher.

from there, small craft advisories/beach hazards statements may
be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching
strong cold front wednesday. nbm guidance suggests that winds
could reach or exceed 30 knots on thursday so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...garuckas
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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311
fxus63 kiwx 132330
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
730 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

.key messages...

- a marginal risk for severe weather remains intact for tonight,
mainly to the west of interstate 69. the primary risk is for
isolated damaging wind gusts and some brief heavy downpours,
but isolated large hail is possible. the main timeframe of
this isolated severe weather risk is roughly from 10 pm edt
to 4am edt.

- dry and cooler conditions to begin next week, temperatures
moderate some into the middle of the week but there will be
increased chances of showers and storms for the tuesday
through thursday period.

- there is a high swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches sunday
into sunday evening. life threatening waves and currents are
expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 334 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

the potential of isolated severe storms continues to be the main
short term forecast concern.

isolated to scattered showers and storms have formed this afternoon
from central il into portions of northeast illinois. these
showers have developed along the leading edge of an amplifying
low level theta-e ridge nosing to the southern lake michigan
vicinity this afternoon. convective coverage appears to be
enhanced across central il due to some contribution of a
convectively enhanced vort max moving across these locations.
downstream airmass locally is more stable at this time, but
gradual eastward advection of this low level higher theta-e air
should lead to some destabilization from west to east. some pre-
frontal confluence should provide best moisture pooling into
this evening from northeast illinois into southwest lower
michigan where an mlcape axis of 1500 j/kg is expected to reach.
while diurnal timing of storms is somewhat unfavorable for
severe weather, the southern great lakes do appear to be
situated at southern extent of stronger westerlies with rap
short term progs suggesting 30 to 35 knots of effective shear
early this evening across far n in/s lower mi. the potential
exists for isolated convection across the west as early as 22
or 23z, but showers and storms should become more numerous late
evening into the overnight, particularly along the pre-frontal
confluent axis across the northwest where instability should be
maximized. some modest mid level lapse rates of around 7 deg
c/km also should advect into the region and should also help
sustain some modest mlcape past peak diurnal timing. overall
setup still appears marginal for severe storms with areas west
of i-69 still appearing to be in best juxtaposition of
shear/instability for isolated severe threat. isolated wind
appears to be primary threat but cannot rule out a narrow window
of isolated marginally severe hail in the 03z-06z timeframe at
the leading edge of slightly steeper plume of mid level lapse
rates. scattered showers/embedded storms should continue into
sunday morning as lagging mid/upper level trough interacts with
low/mid level baroclinic. the greater potential of severe
weather on sunday still appears to remain focused east of the
local area given frontal progression east of the area by peak
diurnal timing. otherwise, it will be much cooler on sunday with
breezy conditions.

quiet weather is expected for sunday night into monday as the cooler
and drier airmass settles into the region. another upper level
short wave is expected to dive south from south central canada
monday night into tuesday with some renewed convective forcing.
however, the opportunity for any significant moisture transport
appears to be limited given the overall westerly flow regime.
showers and storms appear likely on tuesday, although with some
moisture limitations have some concern that blended pops may be
a bit aggressive. by the middle of the week, more significant
pacific energy should top western conus ridge and set up a
potential of better northward surge of low level theta-gradient
into the local area, with perhaps a chance of better
shower/storm organization heading into wednesday/thursday. as
previous forecast mentioned, still a good deal of uncertainty
here with where exact frontal/warm frontal placement will be for
middle of week with some convective modulation of this position
possible. a break in shower/storm chances appears likely for
thursday and friday, but the potential of additional nw flow
waves and likely existence of stronger low/mid level theta-e
somewhere in the vicinity in this pattern argues for additional
precip chances by later next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 725 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

high resolution guidance has been trending drier for the
evening and overnight hours. as a result, the thunder mention
has been removed from the tafs and time of arrival for any
-shra has been delayed. mesoanalysis reveals a capped
environment at this hour and for the next several hours.
beyond this, time height cross sections are very dry above
2,000 ft. after 06z, low- level moisture advection improves yet
a stout mid- level dry layer remains in place. forcing
improves toward 12z as a cold front approaches, representing
the best opportunity for -shra at both terminals. instability
is meager by this time. look for stiff northwest wind behind
the front that lingers into the daytime sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from sunday morning through sunday
evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from sunday morning through sunday
evening for miz177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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507
fxus63 kdtx 132303
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a few embedded strong thunderstorms work through
southeast michigan late this evening into sunday morning.

- dry monday, but showers and possible storms return tuesday
afternoon and late wednesday/wednesday night.

- heaviest rainfall looks to be wednesday night, with the potential
to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.aviation...

vfr consists of thickening cirrus over the dtw corridor and mid
level clouds toward fnt and mbs to start the forecast. the mid level
cloud pattern is ahead of a cold front extending from the straits
into central ia, and is expected to be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms as it moves through lower mi during the night. the
best chance for storms is projected toward fnt and mbs where
instability holds on longer after sunset. showers grow in coverage
while storm intensity gradually weakens as the pattern settles
across the rest of se mi during the late night and through sunday
morning.

the added boundary layer moisture provided by the showers/storms
promotes expansion of mvfr ceiling along and behind the front. this
becomes the prevailing condition toward sunrise from the initial
wind shift at dtw to the more northerly wind shift near mbs. there
is some improvement into vfr as the front moves farther into the
ohio valley and the se mi wind field becomes a more general nw flow
of cooler and less humid air during sunday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance of thunderstorms within
an expanding area of showers late tonight and sunday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for a thunderstorm after 08z sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 312 pm edt sat jun 13 2026

discussion...

a seasonably strong polar upper-level low (541 dam at 500 mb)
residing over northern ontario looks to remain nearly stationary for
the next 7 days. this will allow the tracks of the upper-level wave
train with the prevailing jet stream to reside over or even south of
the great lakes region for the bulk of the extended period. this
setup will bring periodic chances of rain showers and possible
thunderstorms, along with near-normal (slightly below) temperatures.

the first round of activity will move through this evening into
sunday morning (from north to south), as a cold front slowly sinks
south. a narrow but healthy moisture plume (pw values up to 1.5
inches) and an 850-700 mb theta-e ridge are tracking through the
northern third of the cwa this evening. however, instability looks
to be modest, with mucapes around 1000 j/kg (better instability over
northern lower michigan with colder 500 mb temps). none-the-less,
with stronger mid-level winds (50-60 knots in the 700-500 mb layer)
and downdraft capes up around 1000 j/kg, isolated damaging winds can
not be ruled out- hence the marginal risk of severe storms north of
i-69. mid-level rates are decent as well, and with wet bulb zero
heights around 10kft, hail is possible as well. however, given the
weak cape and updraft strength, it may be difficult to get much more
than small hail.

the 500 mb shortwave trough axis clears southeast michigan sunday
afternoon, ensuring a dry end to the day as good post wave
subsidence kicks in. however, there has been a slower trend with the
passage; if this continues, enough diurnal instability may build
once again to warrant concern for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms, particularly over eastern sections of cwa.

a damping upper-level wave will move out of the midwest sunday
night, tracking along and south of the southern michigan border. the
environment will be too dry and stable to support any shower
activity over southern lower michigan on monday. a much stronger
upper-level wave pushing into the western great lakes on tuesday
should be sufficient to develop numerous showers and possible
thunderstorms tuesday afternoon into evening. yet another upper
level wave expected to follow quickly, arriving late wednesday and
supporting more rain showers by wednesday evening. euro ensembles
indicate a greater than 90 percent chance of a tenth of an inch or
more of qpf wednesday night, which is in line with the outgoing high
nbm pops.

marine...

several strong to severe thunderstorms are working across central
lake huron this afternoon leading to gusty winds and large hail,
addressed via smws. elsewhere, warming coastal water temperatures
beneath modest low-level winds facilitate favorable mixing this
afternoon, leading to gusts in excess of 25 knots. the small craft
advisory for saginaw bay and the thumb will remain in effect through
this evening due to gusty winds and elevated wave heights, before
the marine boundary-layer decouples. southwesterly gradient winds
then weaken and veer toward the northwest overnight as a cold front
crosses through the central great lakes. this boundary will also
lead to additional showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
strong to marginally severe late tonight and into sunday. winds will
stay elevated around 20 knots, but out of the northwest on sunday.
additional small craft advisories may be needed for saginaw bay and
the thumb during the afternoon/evening hours. breezy conditions
return each afternoon early next week, but dry weather should
prevail midday sunday through at least tuesday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.