Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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412
fxus61 kcle 020739
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
339 am edt fri oct 2 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains on track and no major changes were needed
with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain and breezy winds are expected with a cold
front this morning.

2) dry weather returns this afternoon with unseasonably cool
temperatures expected early next week. the first frost of the
season is possible in a few spots monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a strong cold front will move across the area this morning,
allowing widespread rain to spread southeast across the local
area early this morning. rain may be moderate at times and most
locations will most likely receive a quarter to a half inch of
rainfall by late morning. flooding is not anticipated given the
recent stretch of minimal rainfall. thunder potential is low
given the lack of instability, but the dynamic nature of the
cold front poses a slight chances of a few rumbles of thunder
across portions of nw oh winds will be a bit gusty with the
frontal passage this morning with periodic gusts to 30 to 35 mph
likely along the immediate lakeshore early this morning. gusts
will be lower inland, although it will still be breezy. rain
will quickly exit the area by early to mid afternoon.

key message 2...
canadian high pressure will quickly build southeast across the
cwa behind the aforementioned cold front later today and
gradually drift east across the region saturday before exiting
to the east by sunday. a weak cold front will cross the area
during the day sunday, although guidance favors a dry frontal
passage. behind this front, a stronger canadian high will build
over the region, delivering a dry and chillier air mass to the
area for the first half of next week. temperatures will be in
the mid-60s on saturday, but warm air advection ahead of
sunday`s cold front will allow late weekend highs to reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s. from there, highs on monday and tuesday
will only reach the low to mid 60s with many spots across
interior nw pa possibly staying in the 50s all day. overnight
lows will generally be in the 40s to around 50 degrees each
night, however efficient radiational cooling will result in
widespread lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s (with locally
warmer lows in the upper 40s along the lakeshore). monday will
most likely be the cooler night of two and patchy to areas of
frost are possibly across interior locations and especially
typical cold spots. will need to continue to monitor the
forecast and would not be surprised if frost advisories ended
up being issued for monday night. high temperatures will warm
into the upper 60s and lower 70s wednesday.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
the main message for aviation weather for this taf update will
be a period of ifr ceilings moving in from west to east through
the rest of the overnight through sunrise as a cold front
advances across the area. widespread light to moderate rain
showers will spread across the area this morning and reduce
visibility between 3sm to 5sm for several hours. conditions are
expected to improve around middle into the early afternoon,
eventually becoming vfr again for the rest of the taf period
into friday night.

winds will start out southwesterly winds 5-10 knots ahead of
the cold front. winds will shift around from the northwest or
northerly 5 to 10 knots behind the cold front later this morning
and continue through this friday evening.

outlook...overall vfr conditions are expected this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will move southeast across lake erie this morning,
resulting in a quick wind shift to the north/northwest. winds
from maumee bay to conneaut will reach 20 to 25 knots with gusts
as high as 30 knots, causing nearshore waves to build to 3 to 6
feet in nearshore zones. a small craft advisory remains in
effect for this morning. winds will quickly diminish to 10 to 15
knots for a period this afternoon, but expect north winds to
once again (albeit briefly) increase to 15 to 20 knots as
canadian high pressure builds over the region this evening. a
second small craft advisory or an extension of the current
small craft advisory can`t be ruled out. by late tonight, winds
will become northeast and diminish to 10 to 15 knots with
similar flow continuing through saturday. the approach of the
next cold front will cause winds to shift to the southwest
sunday, although winds will be light. the next chance of marine
headlines will be sunday night as the arrival of yet another
canadian high makes northwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots
through monday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez142>148.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 020732
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
332 am edt fri oct 2 2026

.key messages...

- rain coming to an end across the area from northwest to
southeast through this afternoon.

- notably cooler today and through the weekend with highs in
the 60s.

- very crisp tuesday morning with lows in the 30s (70% chance).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 319 am edt fri oct 2 2026

a good soaking across the area with the rain band that has been
slowly but steadily working its way through the area from the
northwest to the southeast. many locations have already seen
near to slightly above the 1 inch rainfall mark. here at the
office by 2 am around 1.28 inches of rainfall had fallen so far.
the front will continue to provide light to moderate rainfall
across the area and move southeastward bringing rainfall to an
end over the northwestern portions of the cwa later this morning
and march southeastward into the afternoon. cooler temperatures
will also arrive behind the boundary and highs today will only
reach the mid to upper 60s. this cooler and drier trend will
continue through the weekend into next week. highs will
generally run in the mid to upper 60s with sunday a brief and
slight warmup with some locations especially south and east
getting into the lower 70s. lows will also be cool with lows
generally in the 40s but tuesday morning looks to dip into the
mid to upper 30s. will have to watch carefully in the coming
days with a shot of clearing which will maximize the
radiational cooling and perhaps some localized frost may be
possible especially for the far northern and northeastern
locations. however with the still pretty warm ground temps would
think this may be averted. will keep an eye on that
development.


&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 119 am edt fri oct 2 2026

cold front and associated rain band slowly progressing
southeasterly across the area overnight and will bring
periods of scattered to widespread moderate rainfall. mvfr to ifr
cigs are likely for much of the overnight period for both taf
sites with the boundary passage and very moist low levels. an
embedded thunderstorm or two is possible but lack of instability
should mitigate development. rapid improvement expected later
this morning with return to vfr and clearing skies by this
afternoon after the 20z fri to 00z sat time period however still
trapped moist lower levels could slow clearing.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 11 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 020708
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
308 am edt fri oct 2 2026

.key messages...

- showers end early this morning, with developing sunshine today.
cool tonight with mins mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

- a pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s on saturday
and around 70 degrees on sunday. a low chance of showers late
saturday night into sunday morning (primarily near saginaw bay).

- dry weather continues early next week, with chilly lows in the 30s
to near 40 possible tuesday morning.

&&

.discussion...

a fast, progressive flow will persist over the northern conus over
the next week, although a deeper trough does look to develop over
new england on monday.

rain looks to be coming to end by around 8 am, with the 850 mb theta-
e ridge already well southeast of the state. a shortwave trough is
working through the northern great lakes this morning, with an
impressive mid level dry slot arriving, as 700 mb dew pt depressions
reach 30 to 50 c by day`s end.

expansive high pressure builds in tonight, with the center of the
high (1028 mb) parked over northern lower michigan by 12z saturday.
nbm temps on are on the colder side. with this morning`s rainfall
soaking the ground and a lack of strong dry advection near the
surface, surface dew pts are expected to remain solidly above
freezing; thus, no frost is expected. in fact, there is more concern
with northerly flow off lake huron leading to low clouds over the
eastern thumb region, keeping overnight mins elevated above 40
degrees.

slow return flow around the departing high on saturday, but backed
southeast surface flow should keep temps in the low to mid 60s,
slightly below normal.

the next pacific shortwave currently along the southern british
columbia coast on track to move into the central great lake saturday
night, with the cold front moving through on sunday. the greatest
height falls and forcing will be directed toward saginaw bay. euro
ensembles suggests significantly higher pops for the northern half
of the cwa than the dry outgoing nbm pops. nonetheless, gfs does
show the moisture axis (850-700 mb theta-e ridge) getting strung out
and weakening/drying up as it moves through lower michigan.

outside of the low chance pops late saturday night into sunday
morning, dry weather will be the rule early next week as upper level
confluent flow supports another round of good subsidence and strong
high pressure building over lower michigan. this high brings a
better chance for temps to fall into the 30s for tuesday morning.
however, euro ensemble members are mainly indicating mins aoa 40
degrees.

&&

.marine...

widespread rain associated with a cold front will exit southeast of
lake erie late this morning. post frontal shallow cold air advection
along the lead edge of expansive high pressure over the northern
plains will result in increasing north-northwest winds today.
available guidance suggests moderate to high probability for wind
gusts of 25 to 30 knots across the open waters of lake huron. this
will also help drive hazardous conditions to small craft across the
lake huron nearshore waters today. the high pressure system will
expand across the great lakes region tonight into saturday,
resulting in light winds. the rapid eastward departure of this high
by sunday will drive another frontal system into the region by the
end of the weekend. this front will be moisture starved and
generally weak, limiting weather conditions to just light rain
chances. its passage will be marked by a veering of the winds from
south to west-northwest. some uptick in the winds is expected over
lake huron within the post frontal cold air advection. available
guidance indicates the winds remaining below gales.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1209 am edt fri oct 2 2026

aviation...

a feed of deep along a cold front that is clearing southeast
michigan will continue to bring extensive cloud coverage and
rainfall. mvfr and ifr conditions are focused along and just behind
the front that will continue to to bring light to moderate intervals
of rainfall and potential ifr conditions before ceilings and
visibility improves later this morning as dry air filters in behind
the front. light showers may linger through 12z with nw to n winds
taking over behind the front that will hold through remainder of
this taf period. predominately vfr conditions expected after 12z
with sct/bkn clouds down to around 3500 feet being supported in this
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...low potential for thunderstorms through this
forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 feet early this morning.

* low for thunderstorms.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-443.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......sc
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.