Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
059
fxus61 kcle 110421
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1121 pm est tue nov 10 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and somewhat mild weather is expected through the day on
wednesday.

2) cooler with unsettled weather returning late week. while snow may
mix in at times starting early friday, impactful accumulations
remain rather unlikely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface to mid level ridge will begin to break down on wednesday
before the arrival of the next system moving into the eastern great
lakes and ohio valley regions. ahead of this, anticipate for mild
and dry conditions to persist tonight into much of the day
wednesday. some rain showers may begin to arrive around sunset on
wednesday evening ahead of the next system. lows tonight will settle
in the mid 30s, low 30s across inland northwest pennsylvania. highs
tomorrow rise into the mid to upper 50s.

key message 2...
aforementioned surface low and deepening upper trough will push east
into the region wednesday evening. rain showers will begin to spread
west to east across the area around sunset wednesday with coverage
increasing wednesday night into thursday as better upper level
support moves overhead. the surface low will exit to the east on
thursday with the upper level trough persisting across the great
lakes region through the remainder of the week. by late thursday
night/early friday morning cooler air aloft, around -5 to -7c, will
move overhead and allow for precipitation to changeover to a
rain/snow mix. best potential for some wet snowflakes mixing in will
remain across portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
early friday morning and again friday night into saturday. impactful
accumulations remain unlikely given warmer ground temperatures with
the best potential of measurable snow, albeit only a few tenths of
an inch, across the higher terrain of northwest pennsylvania.

additionally, northerly to northwesterly winds increase through the
day on thursday with wind gusts 25-30 mph possible with localized
gusts to 35 mph closer to the lakeshore thursday afternoon and
evening. northwesterly winds begin to decrease on friday but it`ll
remain breezy with gusts to 20-25 mph possible.

a large area of high pressure will begin to build east into the
eastern conus late in the weekend and maintain control through early
next week. the high will start to dry out mid-levels saturday into
sunday, though light lake enhanced precipitation may continue into
at least part of the weekend. high temperatures thursday through the
weekend will remain in the 40s with overnight lows falling to the
mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr is expected through wednesday evening before conditions
start to deteriorate as showers move in from the west. rain
will likely reach ktol/kfdy shortly after 00z and reach the
eastern fringe of the cwa towards the end of the taf period.
there`s still some uncertainty in the placement of rain so
amendments to refine the timing may be needed. either way,
ceilings and visibilities will gradually lower in precip with
mvfr likely at western terminals by 06z thursday. winds will be
light through wednesday evening before beginning to shift to the
north/northeast and increasing to 5 to 10 knots after 00z
thursday.

outlook...non-vfr will be likely with low ceilings and periods
of rain showers thursday and friday, then lingering across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through the weekend.
some wet snow showers may also be possible at the end of the
week and weekend. wind gusts to 35 mph are possible on thursday.

&&

.marine...
westerly to northwesterly winds 15-25 knots this afternoon and wave
heights 3-6 feet will gradually improve below small craft advisory
criteria this afternoon and evening from west to east. light and
variable flow over the lake anticipated for wednesday.

next round of rough marine conditions will come wednesday night
through friday as northeast winds increase to 20-30 knots as a
strong low pressure system crosses south of lake erie across the
lower ohio valley. the period of strongest winds over the lake
will occur thursday afternoon and evening. additional marine
headlines will be needed for this late week system. the
probabilities for gale force winds continue to decrease.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
711
fxus63 kiwx 110440
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1140 pm est tue nov 10 2026

.key messages...

- a low pressure system moves through wednesday afternoon into
wednesday night with a period of rain and some thunder mainly
south of us-30.

- lake effect showers impact areas mainly west of us-31 in nw in
and far sw mi thursday through friday night. snow may mix in
by late thursday night into friday morning.

- below normal temperatures thursday through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 134 pm est tue nov 10 2026

two jet streams are across the united states to start this
period, with a pacific jet across the northern tier of the conus
and a subtropical jet sliding eastward through the gulf. after
a dry day today, another wave overtopping the ridging in the
southwest dives southeastward into the ohio river valley early
wednesday morning. it will attempt to tap into some moisture
located across the central plains, but it appears that the warm
sector will stay south of us or potentially get into our
southern tier of counties (white to jay county) with a couple
hundred joules of instability. spc has the area in a general
thunder outlook for wednesday for the bulk of the area, but just
a small area of a marginal for wind. its a small period
wednesday afternoon/evening when severe components (mid level
lapse rates and low level instability) have their best
presentation. otherwise, this area of low pressure is expected
to supply some rain to the area starting late morning or midday
into the afternoon wednesday.

then, as the main area of low pressure leaves the area, cold
air wraps around its northwestern side and penetrates lk mi
thursday night into friday. at mgc, bufkit rrfs soundings
indicate saturation occurs around 0z with around 20 to 25c delta
ts. as the cold air continues to filter south and eastward,
bufkit rrfs soundings have snow beginning to mix in after 6z
with all snow not too long after 12z and there are still some
model differences in their handling of ptype. all of this lake
effect precip stays west of in-15 and most of it stays west of
us-31. there will be some meandering of the band to some extent
with some of the precip passing east of us-31, but most of it
stays west. surface temperatures are still forecast to rise into
the low 40s as soon as friday, which would indicate a change
back to rain during the day friday. however, the lake effect
instability is expected to continue through saturday and it is
very possible that at least lake clouds continue for sunday
downstream. some 20 to 25 mph gusts will also be possible
thursday within the gradient.

trajectories finally rotate around to southwesterly by monday
and temperatures trend back through the 40s this weekend to
achieving 50s on tuesday. so below normal temps final become
around normal by then.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1139 pm est tue nov 10 2026

light winds and minimal near sfc dewpoint depressions will
allow for patchy/shallow ground fog overnight across northern
in. confidence remains low on whether this impacts either
terminal however given incoming high clouds and limited moisture
profiles. vfr/dry otherwise until a frontal zone and developing
sfc reflection drop through ksbn late wednesday afternoon, and
kfwa evening with showers and northerly winds up to near 12
knots along and behind. ceilings drop into the low vfr or high
mvfr during this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm wednesday to 7 pm est friday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
292
fxus63 kdtx 110520
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1220 am est wed nov 11 2026

.key messages...

- low chance for patchy fog overnight.

- increasing rain chances through tomorrow.

- a much colder airmass arrives thursday, triggering lake effect
rain and snow showers late thursday through saturday.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure will lead to light to variable winds through the rest
of tonight. not anticipating much fog, if any, given the dry
resident airmass. the inbound increasing coverage of high clouds
will also help limit radiative cooling during the early morning
hours. winds become n-ne by late this morning/early afternoon with
ovc mid-high clouds. a reduction in ceiling heights will occur late
this afternoon into the evening along with increasing rain chances
as a low pressure system takes shape across the midwest and moves
into the ohio valley. ceilings by this evening will be down to mvfr
and ifr.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet late this afternoon.
high this evening into tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm est tue nov 10 2026

discussion...

diffuse high pressure expands over the great lakes under zonal flow
aloft which will bring about the continuation of dry weather
overnight. the forecasted clear skies for the start of the night
brings minor consideration for fog overnight, however the overall
potential remains on the lower side. deep mixing this afternoon have
brought dew points down into the low to mid 30s. west boundary layer
flow keep low-levels mixed tonight with high-based clouds then
expected to move in overhead as winds start to decouple. so from a
radiational cooling perspective probabilities remain low for robust
fog potential, but some haze closer to sunrise cannot be ruled out.
there is a signal for moisture advection off the southern lake
michigan basin to spread inland given the west flow. low-stratus or
fog will likely expand across western michigan, but there is low
confidence in regards the degree of expansion inland, especially
through the western fringe of the cwa. locations across or near
howell, owosso, and possibly up through the southern tri-cities may
see some degree of fog and visibility restrictions pending the
strength of moisture advection.

tomorrow, the combination of low pressure progressing across the
ohio valley in conjunction with an upper-level shortwave and
trailing cold front will likely produce light rain showers across se
mi. the two areas of interest will far southern michigan where
forcing will be predominately derived from isentropic ascent just
ahead of the progressing low, and a secondary area across across
northern lower michigan into the tri-cities tied to the wave and
cold front. some localized higher rainfall rates will be possible
with any frontogenetic forcing but overall no local impacts expected
given a stable environment.

cyclonic flow behind the departing low, reinforced from a stronger
upper-level closed low that will retrograde across quebec and
ontario will usher in cooler canadian air, will activate lake effect
precipitation for both thursday and friday. the combination of north
to northwest flow off the lake and the boost in 0-1 km instability
over the lake will bring about efficient moisture advection, further
supported by secondary vorticity lobes that will swing around the
parent upper-level closed low. this will bring about lake effect
rain showers on thursday, with increasing coverage friday as cooler
air is advected in. as low-level flow backs nnw, the thumb and lake
huron shoreline becomes more susceptible for sustained lake effect
activity on friday and saturday. by friday, a fully saturated dgz
wrt to ice and freezing levels between 1-2 kft bring the possibility
to see a rain/snow mix or melting snow flakes. otherwise cool
starting thursday and through the weekend with highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s to 30s.

lake effect precipitation chances greatly diminish on sunday once
high pressure builds in from the west, shrinking moisture heights
and stripping moisture from the column. high pressure to expand and
hold into the midweek period, bringing an extended window for dry
weather.

marine...

post-frontal gradient winds decline this evening and through the
overnight hours as a low pressure system continues to exit into the
st. lawrence seaway. fleeting high pressure brushes the central
great lakes overnight before the next system ejects across the upper
mississippi valley late tonight. this wave is expected to deepen as
it sweeps over the ohio valley wednesday evening. winds pick up
considerably wednesday night and thursday with the waterways
positioned within the northern half of the system. this leads to
strong norht-norhteasterly flow, with a heightened wind and wave
response. latest model data continues to advertise gusts to gales by
thursday morning. this could be more prevalent across the southern
waterways, especially western erie, st. clair, and maybe saginaw
bay. small crafts will likely be needed for the remaining nearshore
waters. persistent troughing keeps winds elevated friday, albeit
with lower chances for gales. potential exists for a waterspout or
two during this time-frame as shower activity arises.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 pm est thursday for lhz421-422-
441.

small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm est thursday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.