Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
267
fxus61 kcle 010426
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1126 pm est sat feb 28 2026

.what has changed...
there is higher confidence in a light coating of snow in ne oh
and nw pa tonight. otherwise, there are no major changes in the
forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow is expected tonight with very limited impacts.

2) warmer conditions with multiple periods of rain are expected
tuesday through next weekend. there could be increasing
potential for nuisance flooding and increasing flow in area
rivers and creeks.

&&

.discussion...
1) a cold front is making its way through the forecast area this
afternoon and temperatures will flat-line with peak heating this
afternoon but should drop off significantly tonight. meanwhile,
there is some upper level support for some snow with snow
reaching the ground in wisconsin/illinois and moving over lake
michigan. this will spread east tonight and likely across much
of the area. most folks should at least see some flakes tonight.
however, any meaningful coating would probably be in ne oh and
nw pa with generally an inch or less. there shouldn`t be too
much impact with the snow given the timing and the warmer
antecedent ground conditions from sunshine today and recent
temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

2) starting on tuesday, a warm front will enter the region and
bring a notable pattern change to the region. for starters, this
front will allow for temperatures to surge back into the 50s on
tuesday with temperatures gradually warming into the 60s and
even 70s by the end of the week, as strong warm sector builds
over the region. more importantly though, this front will begin
a wet pattern for the forecast area with multiple round of rain
expected through the end of the week. all in all, the forecast
area is looking at about 1 to 2 inches of rain through the week
with periodic rain expected. therefore, the flood risk is not
very high at this point as there will be breaks that will allow
for water to drain. in addition, some of the forecast area
remains in a drought (particularly in nw oh) and could use some
water to help restore soil moisture and low water levels on the
rivers. will need to monitor to see if there is a period that
could overperform and allow for some nuisance flooding issues,
especially in the urban areas or where soil moisture is higher
with the recent melted snowpack. there could be some thunder
chances on wednesday with a more potent shortwave moving through
the region, but the thermodynamics appear poor for anything more
than thunder right now as this system will move through the
area late on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
the main aviation concern for potential weather impacts will be
overnight with areas of light snow moving in. mostly taf
locations have mvfr to vfr conditions and ceilings as of late
this saturday evening. we expected ceilings to lower to mvfr to
lower end mvfr for most locations tonight through sunday
morning. the best potential for ifr conditions will be at eri
with 1sm to 2sm snow with ceilings down to 1500 feet for a few
hours between 06z and 09z. we have mentioned prob30 or tempo
groups for the rest of the taf sites for possible 3sm to 5sm
light snow and ceilings between 1500 and 2500 feet later tonight
into sunday morning. conditions will improve late sunday
morning to vfr ceilings through sunday afternoon/evening.

winds will be from the north-northeast 8-12 knots through sunday
afternoon. there will be a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots through
about 09z overnight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow again sunday night
into monday, mainly along and south of us-30. periods of non-
vfr conditions are possible throughout next week as an active
pattern becomes established.

&&

.marine...
stronger n flow developing behind a cold front the rest of the
afternoon will turn ne at 10-20 knots tonight, diminishing to
5-10 knots by late sunday. winds then turn e at 5-10 knots
sunday night and monday as high pressure strengthens over the
lower great lakes before becoming sw and increasing to 10-15
knots tuesday as a warm front lifts to near lake erie. winds
will then fluctuate between n and s through thursday as the
front wavers over the southern great lakes in response to a
series of low pressure systems tracking along it.

the frequent wind shifts through next week and return to mild
temperatures after the sunday and monday cold will continue to
cause the remaining ice to shift around and decay. this could
pose some hazards to shipping lanes.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
088
fxus63 kiwx 010530
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1230 am est sun mar 1 2026

.key messages...

- steadily increasing temperatures this week with highs in the 50s
and 60s mid to late week.

- a wet and soggy week is ahead with several systems expected to
produce moderate to heavy rainfall. monitoring potential for
minor flooding, especially in areas where drought is ongoing.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 122 pm est sat feb 28 2026

light snow can be seen on radar moving across southern lake michigan
as a clipper-type system dives through the western great lakes.
aided by a 500mb shortwave, light snow is expected to overspread our
lower michigan counties over the next few hours and persist through
this evening. strong frontogenesis also accompanies this system, so
even though a majority of the snow should fall north of us 6, can`t
rule out a few isolated snow showers further south across northern
indiana and northwest ohio too. with temperatures in the 40s this
evening (especially along us 24), areas along and south of us 30 may
see a rain/snow mix as opposed to just snow. qpf will be very light
with this system (likely 0.10" or less), which in turn leads to
light snowfall accumulations of 0.5" or less. nonetheless, snow this
afternoon and evening may create slick spots and reduced
visibilities at times. as temperatures fall into the 20s overnight,
watch out for slick spots on bridges, overpasses, and secondary
roads!

confidence is increasing that we remain dry area-wide through
monday. there was some uncertainty just 24 hours ago but models have
now resolved and are in good agreement that strong canadian high
pressure spilling across the midwest and into the great lakes on
monday will suppress precipitation chances towards central and
southern indiana. all pops have been removed for monday as it
appears like this disturbance will pass to our south across the ohio
river valley, where the better forcing and upper level support will
be. if anywhere does get in on an isolated snow shower, it
would be south of us 24.

a mild and wet weather pattern is ahead to kick off march with
several opportunities for rain this upcoming week into next
weekend. temperatures steadily climb each day this week,
although there will be a ~10 degree temperature difference from
south to north. the warmest day of the week will be friday,
when some locations south of us 24 may reach 70 degrees!
prevailing southerly winds this week will not only usher in the
mild air but also aid in abundant gulf moisture return. by the
middle of the week, high pressure will be over the east coast
and mid atlantic, which allows for several stationary fronts to
stall across the mid mississippi and ohio river valleys. this
then sets the stage for a continued parade of systems through
our area as the pattern gets increasingly more active. several
opportunities for moderate to heavy rainfall are on the table
for wednesday and onwards, although confidence in exact timing
is low. a brief period of wintry mix is expected tuesday morning
on the leading edge of the first incoming system. the dominant
precipitation type then becomes rain after daybreak tuesday as
temperatures climb well above freezing into the mid 40s to mid
50s. widespread, soaking rainfall is possible, especially south
of us 30. there is a marginal risk (level 1/4) for flooding on
tuesday across much of indiana.

highest confidence in heavy rain comes late in the week on thursday
and friday, when pwats climb to over 1" and southwesterly flow
advects in dewpoints in the 50s. embedded thunderstorms may also
occur due to elevated instability of ~500 j/kg. ensemble members
from both the gfs and ecmwf are in fairly good agreement about 2-4"
in qpf falling over the next 7 days across our forecast area, which
will be a welcome reprieve from the dry conditions we have
experienced throughout the fall and winter. flooding will once again
be possible late in the week, especially along and south of us 24
where severe to extreme drought has persisted since september. the
rain will help to replenish soil moisture but repeated rounds of
rain over our area may overwhelm the then saturated ground and cause
concerns for flooding.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1230 am est sun mar 1 2026

caa in ne flow is spreading mvfr stratus across the area, mainly
at kfwa. this will continue through the early morning with
conditions improving around and just after sunrise. otherwise
vfr conditions will persist through the rest of the period.
midlevel clouds increase sunday night as a shortwave passes to
our south but the lowest 10 kft will remain dry.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
592
fxus63 kdtx 010341
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1041 pm est sat feb 28 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snowfall begins this evening with totals of a half
inch to two inches by sunday morning. low confidence for localized
higher amounts.

- colder and drier on sunday, followed by an extended warming trend
during the upcoming workweek.

- the next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs tuesday
with a wintry mix possible.

&&

.aviation...

band of light to moderate snow driven by midlevel frontogenesis is
now weakening as forcing pushes eastward. with lingering moisture,
the potential exists for flurries to persist the first couple of
hours of the period. based on satellite and observation trends,
decided to go fairly aggressive with improving flight categories by
carrying a 9000 ft ceiling beginning at 08z. very strong signal for
steep isentropic downglide and dry air advection between 09-12z.
modest northeast east wind sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this tonight. low sunday.

* high in precipitation type as snow this evening and overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 813 pm est sat feb 28 2026

update...

no critical changes needed to the gridded database or the forecast
messaging. there was a need to increase pops to get to 100% this
evening. efficient accumulating with temperatures now in the 20s
supports widespread accumulation over much of southeast michigan
north of i 94. 850-700mb frontogenesis will work through the area
until 05z. snowfall accumulations of a half inch to two inches is
expected with a locally higher amount possible.

prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm est sat feb 28 2026

discussion...

despite ongoing cold advection, a mostly sunny start to the day
boosted temps well into the 40s across metro detroit and south,
while 30s are prevalent elsewhere. the well advertised snow band is
tracking across lake michigan with snow obs yet to be reported on
the eastern shoreline. very dry air has been in place across lower
mi, evidenced by a 35c+ dew point depression at 830mb/4200 ft agl in
the 12z dtx raob. mid-level fgen and attendant ageostrophic response
are ramping up this afternoon with a peak in forcing expected
through mid evening, but much of this ascent will be used up to
erode the dry sub-6000 ft layer. model cross section analysis
advertises modest, broad omega but with some intersection with lower
static stability aloft. so transient weak banding is still in play,
and a relatively abrupt onset to snow is expected over the next 2 to
4 hours as saturation is achieved.

light snowfall causes temps to drop below freezing with minor
accumulations through the evening, then rates diminish late evening
as forcing peels east. low-level moisture advection off lake huron
may keep spottier rates going for parts of the area past midnight.
regional observations indicate the band is following the more
southern model solution, with the highest qpf favored to set up
between i-69 and i-94. snow totals of 1 to 2" are most likely in this
corridor and the thumb with lower amounts elsewhere. localized
amounts of 3" still plausible if brief band contraction occurs, but
this carries low confidence in occurrence and placement. additional
lake effect snow showers are possible in the eastern thumb sunday
morning but otherwise high pressure will reintroduce dry air and help
scatter clouds through the day. the thermal trough overhead keeps
high temps in the 20s and lower 30s tomorrow.

high pressure passes east but maintains influence with dry
conditions favored through monday. return flow begins to advect in a
warmer air mass with a slight increase in daytime highs into the
30s. the next wave engages the frontal zone over the mid-mississippi
and ohio valleys monday night to lift an area of precipitation
northward into southern lower mi on tuesday. thermal profiles during
this period generally show a shallow sub-freezing sfc layer with a
warm nose aloft, so light wintry mix will be possible if the precip
arrives during the morning. ensemble probabilities indicate roughly
a 20 to 30% chance of a glaze and near 0% for 0.10" of ice.

a mild and active stretch is expected through the middle and end of
next week as a strong bermuda high induces a feed of gulf warmth and
moisture toward the southern great lakes. several pacific waves will
track across the conus during this period, sending tongues of higher
theta-e north with bouts of showers and even some thunderstorms.
model spread is high with regard to timing and placement of each
system at this time but consensus supports the wetter pattern.

marine...

an upper level disturbance will bring light snow this evening.
steady low level cold advection through tomorrow morning as strong
high pressure builds over the central great lakes tomorrow
afternoon. subsequently, northwest winds around 20 this evening and
tonight will decrease under 15 knots tomorrow and aob 10 knots by
evening.

as large high pressure moves off the east coast early next week,
strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the great
lakes region. with the increase low level stability, it appears
winds will just top out in the 25 to 30 knot range. a weak low
tracking through the northern ohio valley mostly rain over lake st.
clair and lake erie, with dry weather and light winds returning
wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
update.......cb
discussion...tf
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.