Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
645 pm edt tue oct 13 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
the chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally gusty winds
has increased near the lakeshore from about toledo to lake, geauga,
and ashtabula counties in the pre-dawn hours wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and isolated thunderstorms expected late tonight and
wednesday as a cold front slowly settles southward. these could
produce locally gusty winds in the pre-dawn hours wednesday.

2) strong low pressure moving through the area thursday night and
friday will bring rain, strong winds, and falling temperatures
followed by the coldest air of the season friday night and saturday.
widespread frost/freeze headlines are likely saturday night/sunday
morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
record high temperatures are occurring this afternoon in the
warm sector of a low pressure system moving through the central
great lakes. warm air advection with 850 mb temps of 18-19 c,
sunny skies, and gusty sw winds have led to surface temperatures
in the mid 80s, with even isolated upper 80s in nw ohio! this
will set up a very warm and breezy evening.

the surface low will move into the eastern great lakes tonight,
dragging a cold front to the vicinity of lake erie this evening.
the front will become quasi-stationary near the south shore of
the lake for several hours tonight as a secondary mid-level
shortwave emanating out of a cut off low over the four corners
region crosses the southern and central great lakes. this will
result in a weak surface wave riding along the front tonight.
the combination of this surface wave and 130+ knot h3 and 60-70
knot h5 jets associated with the mid/upper wave crossing the
great lakes will enhance large scale forcing to generate showers
and thunderstorms along the front late tonight and early
wednesday morning as it sags southward. the 12z suite of href
cams have become more aggressive with a cluster of convective
showers and even some thunder developing in se lower michigan
and nw ohio overnight then progressing across lake erie and the
adjacent lakeshore counties of northern and ne ohio in the
08-11z timeframe. this is not shown nearly as much by the rrfs,
but the aforementioned forcing tied to the surface and mid/upper
waves traversing the sagging boundary support some convection,
especially with lingering warmth overnight from today`s record
highs (lows in the mid 60s). the key will be lake erie. href
and rrfs instability parameters suggest little to no surface or
mucape overnight, but the warm lake erie waters averaging 18c
will likely generate some over-lake instability. this could help
the convective cluster to become more organized over the lake as
it moves east, and if so, the presence of 50 knots of westerly
0-6 km bulk shear could cause strong to sub severe winds near
the lakeshore. this probability is low overall and conditional
on if the cluster can get a boost over the lake, but if any
convective winds occur, the most likely area would be from
roughly just east of toledo through the islands to lake,
geauga, and ashtabula counties where the weak instability over
and near the lake will aid in momentum transfer to the surface.

additional showers and pockets of embedded thunder with heavier
downpours will continue wednesday as the cold frontal boundary
continues pushing southward, but widespread cloud cover and the
best jet support progressing east of the region will prevent
anything organized, with mainly low-impact rain expected. the
best potential for heavier rain and thunder will be along and
south of the us-30 corridor in the afternoon. overall qpf
wednesday will average a few hundredths to up to 0.20 in most
areas, but some 0.25 to 0.50 inch amounts could occur along and
south of us 30 if any isolated convective showers/thunder can
redevelop in the afternoon. any rain will trend farther south as
the day wears on, with slow drying from north to south expected.
all areas will be dry by wednesday night as canadian high
pressure building into the upper great lakes pushes the front
into the ohio river valley.

key message 2...
the break in the weather will be brief as the canadian high
across the great lakes already retreats thursday afternoon to
allow the frontal boundary to lift back north as a warm front
thursday evening and night. this is in response to the old four
corners cut off low phasing with an amplifying mid/upper trough
through the northern plains/upper midwest. the result will be a
deep, negatively tilted trough digging through the great lakes
and eastern u.s. friday and saturday. in response to this
dynamic trough, strong surface cyclogenesis will take place over
the southern great lakes friday morning, with the deepening low
lifting across upstate ny during the day.

in terms of impacts, rain will lift back into the region late
thursday afternoon and evening as warm air advection and
isentropic ascent generate a rain shield along and north of the
lifting warm front. there will likely be a lull in the warm
sector thursday night with gusty sw winds developing (gusting up
to 30 knots) beneath a 50+ knot low-level jet, but showers will
fill back in ahead of the strong cold front that will cross the
region friday morning. will need to watch for a low-topped
squall line along the front if at least weak instability can be
realized since the strong wind fields could produce damaging
winds. nevertheless, strong cold air advection in the wake of
the front, the tight pressure gradient, and strong post-frontal
pressure rises will lead to strong winds friday morning into
friday night. the probability of wind gusts over 40 knots (50
mph) is increasing friday, so wind advisories will likely be
needed, especially in nw ohio and along the lakeshore.
additionally, the strong cold air advection and nw flow will
lead to lake-effect showers in ne ohio and nw pa friday
afternoon and evening.

winds will gradually subside friday night and saturday morning,
but lake-effect showers will continue in ne ohio and nw pa, and
with 850 mb temps dipping below -5c (some guidance continues to
be colder), graupel is possible, and the first snow flakes of
the season could also occur in southern erie and crawford
counties of nw pa. high pressure building in saturday afternoon
and saturday night will dry out all areas, but the coldest night
of the season so far is likely, with widespread lows in the
low/mid 30s. some upper 20s are possible in interior ne ohio and
nw pa. this will lead to a widespread frost and freeze that
should end the growing season in many areas. moderating
temperatures are expected sunday and monday as the arctic high
drifts east.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
the main message for aviation weather will be starting off vfr
for all locations this evening with some mvfr conditions moving
in by wednesday morning. clouds will be on the increase
overnight with scattered showers moving in between 09z and 15
wednesday morning. have prob30 groups for the potential of 5sm
-shra and overcast around 3k feet between 09z and 15z. there
could be isolated thunder but have left that out of the tafs
at this time. mvfr ceilings may linger through the afternoon at
mfd, cle, cak, yng, and eri. ceilings will climb to vfr or
3500 feet or higher towards the end of the taf period, late
wednesday afternoon/evening. winds will relax after sunset from
the west around 5 knots. winds will shift from the northwest
or north around 5 to 10 knots wednesday morning through the
afternoon.

outlook...intermittent non-vfr is likely wednesday with
widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. additional
non-vfr in rain is likely thursday afternoon through friday
night with wind gusts exceeding 30 knots on friday.

&&

.marine...
sw winds will be near 20 knots at times through early this
evening before decreasing to 5-10 knots and veering to nw
tonight behind a cold front sagging across the lake. nnw winds
will continue at 5-10 knots most of wednesday, turning ne and
increasing to 15-20 knots wednesday night and thursday as high
pressure builds into the upper great lakes. another small craft
advisory may be needed wednesday night into thursday,
especially in the western and central basins.

after a lull late thursday, sw winds will increase to 20-30
knots late thursday night as a warm front lifts across the lake
ahead of a potent low pressure system. these winds will turn nw
friday morning behind the system`s cold front, increasing to
25-35 knot gales. gale force winds, potentially up to 40 knots,
will likely continue into friday night. this will build wave
heights to 8-12 feet at times friday and friday night, so the
first gale headlines of the season are expected late thursday
night into saturday. winds will gradually diminish saturday,
becoming sw at 15-20 knots by sunday.

&&


.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt wednesday for lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...77
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
710 pm edt tue oct 13 2026

.key messages...

- a cold front will gradually sag southward across the area
tonight into wednesday leading to scattered showers and some
embedded thunderstorms. severe weather is not expected
tonight or wednesday.

- a lull in greater rain chances is expected later wednesday afternoon
into wednesday night, but another round of showers and storms
is expected thursday and thursday night.

- there is a marginal risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along
and south of us route 24 for thursday evening. confidence in
severe weather is low.

- turning much cooler and windy for friday with some lake effect
rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 pm edt tue oct 13 2026

the short wave trough and pre-frontal forcing which aided in showers
along and south of the us route 24 corridor earlier today will
continue to shift across the eastern great lakes region this
evening. isolated showers and thunderstorms have also developed
during the mid afternoon across southwest lower michigan/far
northern indiana where some increase in low level frontogenesis
forcing allowed development along weak confluence zone and also
just downstream of what appears to be southwest extent of weak
dpva.

the focus for tonight into early wednesday will be another low
amplitude short wave trough ejecting out of the dakotas and a
resultant slow southward sinking baroclinic zone into
wednesday. preceding this wave and frontal zone will be another
surge of higher low level theta-e air. isentropic forcing does
not appear to be as pronounced as last night, but axis of fairly
strong low level fgen forcing and increasing elevated
instability should compensate for this with scattered showers
and isolated/scattered thunderstorms expected to redevelop late
evening into the overnight hours. given elevated nature of the
instability, severe weather is not expected. some brief heavy
rainfall is possible given increasing depth of moisture
profiles, long/skinny cape profiles, and increasing warm cloud
depths. given quite dry antecedent conditions, significant
hydro impacts are not expected.

by mid afternoon wednesday, scattered shower/storm activity should
progressively sink southward as low level fgen axis becomes more
muted and shifted south. this will occur as some recovery in mid
level heights occurs upstream in response to stronger upper
trough/cut-off low feature lifting northeast out of the four corners
region.

another round of active weather is expected thursday and friday as
the cut-off upper low begins to phase with a more dynamic northern
stream upper level trough digging southeast out of south central
canada. this phasing system will likely result in cyclogenesis
overhead late thursday with some favorable upper jet dynamics
also coming into play. this strongly forced setup should support
another round of showers and thunderstorms thursday afternoon
and thursday night before a strong accompanying cold front
sweeps across the area. with the tendency to signals of better
phasing, sfc reflection is likely to take a track closer to
guidance that has been advertising a northerly track across
in/nw oh/se lower mi. this could provide a brief temporal window
of weak near surface based cape across at least southeast
portions of the forecast area late thursday afternoon and more
likely thursday evening. uncertainty remains with just how far
north warm frontal feature can progress thursday night but given
robust kinematic profiles may need to monitor for isolated
strong/severe threat thursday evening, especially south of us
24. given progression of features and dry antecedent conditions,
widespread hydro concerns are not expected. pwats will be
highly anomalous on thursday however, so some localized heavier
rainfall amounts are possible.

friday still appears dismal with blustery conditions developing on
cold side of this deepening system. peak afternoon gusts into the 35
to 40 mph range still appear possible given deep post-frontal
mixing. some consideration may be given to a wind advisory
downwind of lake michigan, but uncertainty remains in this
regard. some lake effect rain showers will also be likely
although duration of deeper lake induced instability profiles
appears somewhat limited to friday morning/early pm. friday and
saturday will feature temps well below normal with nighttime
lows in the 30s. along with the better phased system comes the
potential of a slightly quicker eastward progression of sfc
anticyclone late friday night with an attendant frost potential
friday night and saturday night. flow deamplification quickly
ensues to start next work week which should result in
temperatures moderating back to slightly above normal by monday-
tuesday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 709 pm edt tue oct 13 2026

existing tafs remain on track this evening. a cold front is
slowly working its way through northern indiana. encountering a
subtropical high over the southeast, a very weak pressure
gradient will result in light wind into the overnight hours.

isolated showers and thunderstorms have festered upstream in the
vicinity of the front and this activity is expected to
rejuvenate through early wednesday morning. showers become
divorced from the best upper-level support by sunrise wednesday
resulting in a weakening trend toward kfwa. high pwats can
likely result in periods of mvfr visibility from any showers
that move through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
732 pm edt tue oct 13 2026

.key messages...

- some scattered showers tonight into wednesday morning with a few
rumbles of thunder, mainly south of m-59.

- more seasonable and drier during the day wednesday, followed by
additional rainfall thursday afternoon into thursday night.

- a strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier
conditions friday, with a few showers in spots.

- turing drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by
sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a dry cold front continues progressing across metro detroit this
evening, causing wind direction to veer to nnw over the next few
hours. loss of daytime heating has already caused gusts to subside
and will allow southward expansion of lower stratus across the area
tonight. highest confidence in mvfr ceilings is at kmbs and kfnt. a
disturbance aloft brings scattered showers across the area after
midnight, with an isolated thunderstorm possible mainly south of i-
94. light wind early wednesday veers n and ne by wednesday evening
as high pressure builds into the northern great lakes. inbound dry
air favors scattering of lower ceilings during the afternoon, with
potential for lake huron stratus to then move inland wednesday night.

d21/dtw convection...an isolated thunderstorm remains possible
between 08z and 11z within scattered coverage of showers, but
confidence remains too low to include in the taf at this time.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 346 pm edt tue oct 13 2026

discussion...

aggressive low and mid level drying outpaced last evening`s 00z
models, yielding clear skies since the mid-morning hours. goes water
vapor imagery continues to show widespread subsaturated air
encompassing the great lakes while the exiting low`s cold front
slowly clears toward the michigan/ohio border. taking into
consideration the slow frontal progress, uninhibited insolation, and
850 mb temperatures hovering near 17c over metro detroit, recording
breaking heat remains in reach today, given the previous record of
just 83f. further north, post-frontal flow has flipped west-
northwesterly which will spread southeastward through the evening
hours. the near-surface layer along the frontal slope cools faster
than the rest of lower column, leading to a more abrupt end to the
breezy afternoon conditions. wind speeds drop off late tonight as
pressure gradient influence shifts from the low to an upstream ridge
of high pressure.

the 595 dam 500 mb gulf coast ridge remains anchored tonight as a
plume of 800-600 mb moisture releases anticyclonically from the
eastern plains into the ohio valley amidst backing westerly flow.
meanwhile, the frontal boundary stalls just south of the state line
as perturbed flow starts to work through aloft, helping trigger a
period of scattered showers. models preserve a relatively narrow qpf
footprint with the highest totals (up to 0.25 inches) along/south of
i-94, mainly over the southern four counties. light/trace amounts
are possible further north, up to m-59. in spite of rrfs forecast
soundings showing an inversion layer from 2.5-6.5 kft, lapse rates
above should suffice in generating pockets of 100-250 j/kg of
elevated cape. as a result, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled
out.

there could still be a few lingering showers exiting the area by
sunrise wednesday, followed by mainly dry conditions settling for
the rest of the daylight hours. broad surface high pressure
influence extending from manitoba to southeast michigan ushers in a
cooler continental airmass. the resulting shift to northerly flow
helps to nudge the existing vicinity boundary further into the ohio
valley throughout the day. weaker winds expected as split-flow
ensues below 700 mb, limiting gusts to less than 15 mph. the next
round of showers arrives thursday as a southern stream closed low
lifts from the desert southwest into the plains, phasing with a
digging positively tilted longer wavelength trough. supporting
dynamics and a spike in upper level divergence will engage a robust
theta-e plume lifting up the mid-mississippi valley and eventually
bringing rain to southern lower michigan. high uncertainty exists in
the onset time for rain, reflected by the gradual northeastward
expansion of chance pops after 12z, per nbm. the bulk of the
rainfall should occur thursday evening, or early thursday night as
the northeast flank passes over southeast michigan, well downstream
of the deepening surface low, still located near the southern shores
of lake michigan. the low then traverses southern lower michigan
late thursday night before crossing into lake huron friday morning.

turning colder and much windier on friday as the system`s cold front
clears through. aggressive constriction of the pressure gradient is
possible in its wake, although there is a noticeable difference in
the magnitudes of the deterministic solutions. the column will cool
at similar rates, but should see the mixed-layer expand sufficiently
for 35-45 knot lower tropospheric flow to mix down. gusts in the 35-
45 mph range cannot be ruled out friday afternoon and evening.
additionally, a deformation axis trails, which could help spur some
light scattered rain showers. chilly overnight with temperatures
dropping near or slightly below freezing, particularly north of i-
69. turning drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings
by sunday, returning to climatological averages.

marine...

conditions remain very stable under southwest flow as air
temperatures remain warm for this time of year which has tempered
gust potential. there will be a window this evening where winds back
to the west as low pressure departs the region. this window of
backed flow is where elevated mixing depths just will be high enough
to where gusts around 20 to 25 knots are possible. small craft
advisories remain in effect from the saginaw bay to port huron for
this potential. any elevated winds will then quickly diminish in the
later evening hours as the pressure gradient rapidly weakens.

a cold front will then push through the great lakes tomorrow,
stalling across southern michigan by the afternoon. the favorable
northwest fetch will produce wind gusts 20 to 30 knots across
northern lake huron. high pressure to then build in through thursday
which will bring a period of light winds for the day. confidence is
increasing for a strong cold front to pass friday into saturday.
instability will increase over the lakes in the wake of the front as
cold air flows over the warmer waters. coupled with longer duration
northwest flow, a high-end gale event is looking increasingly likely
to end the week.

climate...

record high max temperatures for october 13th:

detroit: 83 degrees (set in 1975)
flint: 83 degrees (set in 1975)
saginaw: 86 degrees (set in 1930)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...kgk
marine.......am
climate......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.