Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 161202
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
702 am est mon feb 16 2026

.what has changed...
only minor changes to the forecast this cycle is to adjust
temperatures this morning down a few degrees which could bring
freezing fog impacts. visibility was also adjusted based on
current observations and trends as the dense fog advisory
remains in effect.

&&

.key messages...
1) a dense fog advisory continues as visibility less than a quarter
of a mile is observed from the i-71 corridor, eastward. conditions
will begin to improve mid-morning.

2) above average temperatures expected through friday before falling
near normal for the weekend. with the increased temperatures, the
remaining snow pack will melt providing a minor risk in river rises
and ice jams.

3) periodic precipitation expected this week. wednesday will have
the highest potential for rain showers with another chance on
friday. rain/snow mix possible this weekend with a colder air mass
over the region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
plenty of low level moisture remains across the region behind a
departing low to the east in addition to light winds will has
allowed for dense fog to form. main areas of focus for visibilities
less than a quarter mile will be east of the i-71 corridor, though
there will be some pockets of decreased visibility to the west as
well. the dense fog will persist through the mid-morning hours on
monday and may impact those commuting. the dense fog advisory
currently in effect runs until 11am this morning. temperatures will
begin to rise with diurnal heating that will help dissipate the
fog.

key message 2...
above normal temperatures will continue through the majority of the
forecast period due to west to southwesterly flow across the region.
most days will have high temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s with
wednesday being the exception. a warm front will pass through the
area wednesday morning that will increase the southerly flow and waa
allowing for temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 50s with
some locations in central ohio touching the low 60s. temperatures
across the northern portion of the cwa won`t reach as high as the
warm front will pass through later and precipitation will be moving
in the region. not anticipating any record high being broken on
wednesday as most locations will stay 5 to 10 degrees below those
records. with the increased temperatures, the remaining snow pack
will melt and may give a minor response in streams and rivers that
will have their ice deteriorating as well. this may cause some
localized ice jams in places if the response is great enough and
will need to be monitored. temperatures will fall back down around
normal this weekend as a series of low pressure system move through
the region.

key message 3...
a series of low pressure system will move through the region this
week. wednesday will have the greatest chance of precipitation this
week as a low moves into the western great lakes pulling a warm
front north through the region that morning. the low will stall out
across wisconsin which may limit the southern extent of the
precipitation. regardless, measurable rainfall is expected area wide.
current forecast has qpf totals of around 0.10" in the southern
portion of the cwa, and up to around 0.50" in ne oh and nw pa. can`t
rule out a rumble of thunder or two as there will be some weak cape
of 200-500 j/kg. additionally, with the approaching low, winds will
begin increasing as the pressure gradient tightens and a strong llj
moves overhead. winds will be gusting around 25-35mph with the
highest gusts in western ohio.

another chance for rain showers will on thursday night into friday
as a low pressure system tracks to the northwest. staying in the
warm sector of the low will allow for all precipitation to fall as
rain. for the weekend, there is some discrepancies in the models as
to the development of the next system there will be caa behind the
low on friday that will change over any lingering rain friday night
and saturday morning to a rain/snow mix. with the colder
temperatures this weekend, if any precipitation does occur, it will
likely fall as a rain/snow mix or as wet snow.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
dense fog remains in place at fdy/mfd/cak with low ifr at
tol/yng. fog can be seen on satellite imagery creeping close to
cle and expect to see visibilities drop back down to 1/2 to 1/4
of a mile towards sunrise. low stratus is also likely to fill
back in through 14-15z at cle and lasting longer at some of the
eastern terminals. otherwise, southerly winds are forecast to
increase today to 12 knots late this afternoon and some gusts to
20+ knots are possible at eri tonight. while the potential for
fog does not look as good tonight with some mid-level cloud
around and elevated winds, did add some visibility restrictions
at southern sites including fdy/mfd/cak.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday.
non-vfr possible on tuesday afternoon and again wednesday and
thursday night into friday. &&

.marine...
aside from some patchy fog on lake erie this morning, winds will be
12 knots or less today, increasing to southwesterly at 15-20 knots
tonight. the next window of elevated winds comes on wednesday as a
warm front lifts north across lake erie and southerly winds increase
to 15-25 knots. areas of fog will be possible again. these elevated
winds along with much above normal temperatures across the region
this week will continue to rot the ice with ice floes expected.
shore ice may break off and any available shipping channels may be
closed. it is important for people to stay off the ice this week or
risk getting stranded.

the weather pattern looks active into this weekend and expect to see
enhanced easterly winds ahead of a system on thursday night, veering
to westerly friday night and northwesterly over the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...dense fog advisory until 11 am est this morning for ohz009>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...dense fog advisory until 11 am est this morning for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...10/sefcovic
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 am est mon feb 16 2026

.key messages...

- areas dense fog this morning, with the greatest coverage of
dense fog across much of northern indiana and northwest ohio.

- unseasonably mild through the week.

- rain showers are likely tuesday night into wednesday morning, and
again late thursday into friday.

- cooler (near normal) weather returns by this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 am est mon feb 16 2026

fog continues to gradually fill in early this morning given a
relaxed gradient wind and lingering near sfc moisture trapped within
an inversion. incoming high clouds are likely too late to have much
of an impact with areas of dense fog likely to settle into many
areas toward daybreak, best chances in our in and oh counties
where a dense fog advisory may be needed through the mid morning
hours. unseasonably mild and dry otherwise today and tuesday
with the active polar jet displaced to the north, and heights
slowly on the rise in advance of incoming rockies and high
plains troughing.

pattern then becomes more active for the mid to late week periods as
several systems track along a ~140 kt upper jet developing
from the four corners east-northeast into the ohio valley. the first
low pressure system surging along this incoming upper jet likely
settles northeast into the upper midwest tuesday night within the
diffluent flow field, eventually going through the filling/occlusion
process during the day on wednesday. an associated shot of thete-e
advection will focus rain showers over the area tuesday night into
wednesday morning along an elevated warm front. some weak
instability noted on the leading edge of an eml could be enough to
generate a few storms wednesday morning, though confidence in
thunder chances remains low. warm sector and this eml should put a
cap on things for most of the area by wednesday afternoon with mild
and breezy conditions anticipated.

the lingering baroclinic zone then sets up over or just north of the
area into thursday and friday. the next jet packet and developing
sfc reflection will track along it with another period of rain
(iso thunder?) likely late thursday into friday morning. trending
cooler then behind this system into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 648 am est mon feb 16 2026

development of a strong nocturnal inversion and trapped low
level moisture with a good deal of near sfc moisture from recent
snowmelt has led to widespread fog formation across northern
indiana this morning. a broad anticyclone from southern missouri
into southern ohio will continue to get suppressed south early
this morning as a southwesterly gradient strengthens into mid
morning. despite this strengthening gradient, the strength of
the low level inversion and poor mixing will likely allow
lifr/ifr conditions in fog to persist through the 15z-16z
timeframe. otherwise, as fog dissipates later this morning and
into the midday period, southwesterly winds will increase with
some gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range before decoupling
diminishes wind speeds to 10 knots or less this evening. for
tonight, a progressive mid level trough will race across the
great lakes/southeast ontario, allowing a sfc cold front to
stall out across the southern great lakes. a weakness in the
gradient near this boundary could be enough to support some more
fog development tonight with some ifr/mvfr conditions appearing
likely.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...dense fog advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
524 am est mon feb 16 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog/freezing fog can be locally dense this morning.

- above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

- the next round of precipitation is on schedule for tuesday night
and wednesday. all rain is expected with decreasing potential for
wintry mix across the north.

- a rain/snow mix moves in by friday followed by a temperature drop
back toward mid/late february normals this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

calm to light winds under a nocturnal inversion will continue to
promote a stagnant environment which will maintain the mvfr-ifr haze
prior to daybreak. localized dense fog chances will be most probable
across kdet due to subtle lake moisture enhancement, which may bring
some lifr visibility restriction. through the late morning, the low
levels will start to mix out as light southwest winds take hold,
which will improve visibilities to vfr. vfr conditions are then
expected through the remainder of the day under periodic mid to high
level clouds. haze or fog development will again be possible tomorrow
morning.


dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 am est mon feb 16 2026

discussion...

areas of fog across se mi are most favored to be locally dense
toward the great lakes shorelines where high clouds remain thin and
wind is calm. melting snow over the last few days is also keeping
the boundary layer primed with moisture to sustain fog and haze
through mid morning before sw wind increases across the region. high
clouds are then on the increase out ahead of the next short wave
system moving in from central canada and the midwest. primary low
pressure is well north into ontario with a more subtle surface
reflection along the southward extending cold front that moves into
northern lower mi this afternoon. increasing sw flow ahead of the
surface wave ensures another day of temperatures well above normal.
highs in the lower 50s look reachable even with a greater cloud
component compared to recent days. the clouds are within a ridge of
higher moisture that builds in ahead of the surface low and cold
front that moves into se mi this afternoon. there is a chance that
moisture transport and isentropic ascent become adequate for some
light rain to graze the tri cities and northern thumb, however the
bulk of precipitation occurs farther north where combined short wave
support is greater. the trailing cold front moves in this evening
and is expected to be a dry passage through se mi to the ohio border
by sunrise tuesday.

temperatures are held more in check tuesday as the front stalls
nearby to the south of the ohio border. there is a substantial cloud
component across lower mi along with easterly surface wind which
combine to hold temperatures in the 30s along the lake huron
shoreline increasing to mid 40s interior west of i-75/us-23. the new
16/00z model runs are in good agreement on the maintenance of dry
weather otherwise during the day as the 500 mb ridge axis moves
overhead in advance of the well-advertised mid week low pressure
system. this system activates the stalled front in textbook fashion
tuesday night as the surface low grows to cover much of the northern
plains. model data indicate a 50 kt low level jet reaching into the
ohio valley with a generous supply of gulf modified air to feed an
all rain event for se mi. there are no big changes in the model
treatment of this system in terms of track or evolution which
maintains similar qpf expectations to the last few forecast cycles.
strong transport of gulf modified air focused into the warm front
across southern lower mi results in higher end rainfall totals for
this time of year. consensus of deterministic and ai runs offer a
fairly coherent qpf axis across northern lower mi with the southern
fringe across the northern thumb and tri cities where totals reach
the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range before the mid level dry slot quickly
cuts off activity wednesday afternoon. the northern thumb is also
still slightly vulnerable to a brief period of freezing rain at
onset, however temperatures are projected to rise well above
freezing as rainfall rate peaks after midnight. the warm sector of
the system surges more strongly into the area south of i-69 by
wednesday afternoon, and this is where high temperatures likely
reach the lower 60s. there is also some model spread showing up on
the northward progress of the warm front resulting in a range of
high temperatures from the upper 30s northern thumb to lower 60s
ohio border for wednesday afternoon.

there is a pause in precipitation wednesday night and thursday, in
between the departing wednesday system and the next larger scale
wave that breaks away from the pacific coast long wave trough. this
system moves inland and into the central plains thursday on a track
into the western great lakes thursday night and friday where it
merges with the leftover frontal zone from the wednesday system.
longer range model runs indicate an occlusion over lower mi that
favors rain at onset changing to a rain/snow mix as the system
pivots through the area friday and exits friday night. temperatures
then drop back toward normal mid/late february readings for next
weekend.

marine...

a weak cold front settles across the great lakes today, with wind
ahead of it organizing out of the south to southwest at 10 to 15 kt.
the front passes over lake huron this afternoon and evening with a
chance of rain, then wind shifts to northwest and subsides tonight
as a ridge of high pressure builds in. this high maintains benign
conditions through tuesday before an area of low pressure tracks
from the midwest into the region tuesday night into wednesday.
easterly wind will become gusty across lake huron, with ensemble
probabilities favoring a window from daybreak wednesday to early
afternoon for gusts to 35 kt gales. elsewhere, gusts to 25 to 30 kt
will be possible. this system will also bring widespread precip with
rain in the south, snow in the north, and wintry mix in between. a
second low pressure system is likely to track into the great lakes
from the midwest on friday with another round of widespread
precipitation and gusty easterly wind.

hydrology...

a large low pressure system brings a reinforcing surge of warm air
and widespread rain to the region tuesday night and wednesday.
rainfall totals are projected to range from 0.25" to locally 1"
during the time from tuesday evening to about noon wednesday. the
highest amounts are forecast across the saginaw valley and thumb
regions, closest to the track of the surface low. the rain will
occur on top of a melting snowpack that has a snow water equivalent
analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". the combination of rain and
snowmelt on frozen ground may lead to rises on area streams and
rivers. ponding of water on roads is also possible, especially where
drains could be blocked by snow and/or winter debris.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...bt
marine.......tf
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.