Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
381
fxus61 kcle 041156
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
756 am edt mon may 4 2026

.what has changed...
slightly lowered dew points across northwest ohio this
afternoon. also increased pops tuesday afternoon into early
wednesday morning as persistent, widespread precipitation is
expected.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening along a surface trough. a few storms
could become strong to severe across portions of north central
and northwest ohio.

2) widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
across the region tuesday into wednesday. some nuisance and/or
minor river flooding is possible.

3) a chilly air mass will return across the region towards the
end of the week with another round of frost conditions possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a weak mid-level shortwave will move northeast across the ohio
valley ahead of a stronger upper-level trough near the upper
great lakes today. a narrow corridor of higher dew points in
the 50s and mid-level lapse rates of near 7 c/km will accompany
this feature, potentially yielding mlcape values in excess of
1000 j/kg by this afternoon and evening.

the latest spc swody1 marginal risk encompassing portions of
north-central and northwest ohio appears reasonable at this time
given the environment in place (modest westerly bulk shear of
around 30 to 35 knots and a favorable dcape gradient in place),
though recent guidance has continued to trend convective
initiation further north and northwest. if these trends
continue, much of the area may not see much precipitation until
later tonight.as the cold front approaches. the main hazards
with any stronger storms that form would be isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail.

key message 2...

a secondary area of low pressure will develop along a slow-
moving cold front as it approaches the lower great lakes region
on tuesday. widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected with the front, especially late tuesday into wednesday,
with high probabilities for much of the area to receive at
least 1 inch of rainfall, with a narrow corridor up to 1.5
inches possible. although not particularly impressive amounts,
the recent wet pattern coupled with a widespread rain could lead
to some nuisance road and/or minor river flooding and will be
something to watch in future forecast iterations.

key message 3...

another anomalously-cold air mass will enter the region towards
the end of the week, with 850 mb temperatures falling to near or
just below -2c. though not as cold as the previous cold air
mass over the region, there does exist some potential for
another round of frost conditions, especially thursday night
into early friday morning.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
clear skies this morning will give way to gradually increasing
sct-bkn vfr clouds through the afternoon with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing generally after 20z. a capping
inversion is likely until we moisten sufficiently aloft with the
arrival of shortwave energy towards late afternoon to kick off
activity. high resolution models depict scattered showers across
northeast ohio along a warm front, with better support for
thunderstorms moving into northwest ohio and expanding east
across lake erie towards cle/eri through the evening. we have a
tempo for thunderstorms in tol where confidence is highest in
thunderstorms this evening. elsewhere, covered the potential for
showers with vcts or -shra. the moisture axis ahead of the
approaching trough sinks south into the area overnight and bring
additional showers back into favored terminals late in the
period.

breezy southwesterly winds are expected today after 15z with
gusts of 22-28 knots. where wind gusts drop off tonight the
concern for low level wind sheer will return with speeds of
40-50 knots at 2k feet.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected monday
night through wednesday morning with occasional thunderstorms.
showers return again thursday night into friday with the next
front.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds of 10-20 knots will continue today on the
western half of lake erie with 10-15 knots on the east half of
the lake. winds will increase slightly to 15-20 knots across
most of the lake tonight ahead of a cold front. the front will
sink south across the lake on tuesday afternoon with winds
decreasing behind the front. northerly winds of 5-15 knots will
persist through thursday before backing to southwesterly again
on friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
705
fxus63 kiwx 040917
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
517 am edt mon may 4 2026

.key messages...

- warm and breezy today with highs well into the 70s.

- chances (20-50%) increase for scattered showers and storms mid
afternoon today into tonight. a few storms could become
strong to severe (wind/hail).

- cooler with a soaking rain developing tuesday afternoon into
tuesday night (70-90%), best chances along and southeast of
the us 24 corridor.

- cool midweek through the weekend with occasional low chances
(20-30%) for scattered rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 227 am edt mon may 4 2026

a good deal of sunshine and ongoing warm advection within renewed 30
kt plus 925-850 mb southwest flow will push highs well into the 70s
today. moisture advection and resulting cape magnitudes will remain
somewhat limited in this regime however with sfc dewpoints only
reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s within a well mixed boundary layer
by later this afternoon. this likely limits coverage/intensity of
widely scattered convection (20-40%) mid afternoon into mid evening
near a northward advancing warm-frontal like feature, and incoming
weak mid level impulse lifting through from the mid ms valley. with
that said, cannot completed rule out an isolated wind threat given
up to 1000 j/kg of mlcape and inverted-v type soundings, with hail
also not out of the question given corridors of 25-35 knots of deep
layer shear (hence the spc day 1 marginal risk).

a longwave trough dropping into the midwest does push a slowing cold
front into the area from nw to se late this evening into tuesday
morning. increasing (50-70%) shower/storm chances will accompany
this feature and/or composite outflow. there may be enough lingering
mucape and strong enough pre-frontal flow to support an isolated
wind threat late evening into the early overnight, mainly northwest
of the us 24 corridor.

cooler air settles in behind the sfc front on tuesday. the elevated
portion of the front stalls along/south of the us 24 corridor by
tuesday afternoon-evening with rain and embedded thunder likely
(70-90%) blossoming as a frontal wave develops along it. latest
guidance hints at the potential for a sharp cut-off to the rain into
nw in and sw mi as drier surges in under the frontal slope. latest
nbm did cut into pops/qpf here.

ensembles continue to lock in aggregate troughing and northwest flow
midweek through the upcoming weekend with below normal temperatures
and periodic opportunties for rain showers as disturbances drop
through in cool cyclonic flow.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 517 am edt mon may 4 2026

vfr this morning with little in the way of cloud cover and
southerly winds up to near 10 knots. diurnal mixing will allow
winds to increase this afternoon with gusts 25-30 knots at
times, especially at kfwa. a weak warm front and building
instability does bring the chance (20-40%) for widely scattered
showers and storms mid afternoon into this evening. brief
flight reductions will be possible with this activity.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
606
fxus63 kdtx 041625
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1225 pm edt mon may 4 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy today.

- a chance of thunderstorms this evening into tonight. some storms
may be strong or severe south of the i-69 corridor.

- much cooler temperatures return tuesday and last through the end
of the week.

&&

.aviation...

well-mixed boundary layer allowing for southwest winds to gust aoa
25 knots this afternoon. despite the moderate southwest winds, low-
level moisture is slow to advect into the state, and a cap should
hold through 20z, limiting low cloud development. a chance of
showers and storms develop over the southern tafs during the evening
hours. a cold front slowly tracking through tonight brings a chance
of showers and low vfr/borderline mvfr ceilings, with embedded
thunder not out of the question.

d21/dtw convection...inherited timing of 23z-03z for thunderstorms
looks good, but confidence in a direct impact is still not high
enough to upgrade from prob30. strong wind gusts and hail are
possible should a strong or severe storm intersect the airfield.
heavy downpours could result in brief ifr reductions. additional
showers are expected overnight into tuesday morning as a cold front
tracks through, some of which could include embedded thunder. winds
will shift to the northwest mid-to-late tuesday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening and tonight.

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening and tonight;
medium tomorrow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt mon may 4 2026

discussion...

subtle mid level height rises and warming in the 900 to 700mb layer
today will result in a formidable mid level cap by afternoon. there
will be a good deal of sunshine through much of the day given the
subsidence and dry air. deep layer mixing up to 7k feet with 850mb
temps forecast to rise to +10 to +11c this afternoon will support
high temps in the mid 70s across much of the forecast area today.
while not as windy as yesterday, model soundings still indicate a
solid core of southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots in the mixed layer,
which will support peak gusts in the 30-35 mph range.

the gradual northward advection of a little higher boundary layer
moisture (characterized by sfc dewpoints in the 50s) from the ohio
valley into the southern portions of the forecast area late this
afternoon and evening is shown by the 00z model suite. this will
support modest instability with 0-1km ml cape forecast to reach 1k
j/kg per latest hrrr. sref surface based cape actually ranges from
1500 to 2000 j/kg in the far south. forecast strengthening of the
low to mid level sw wind fields across the nrn ohio vally this
evening may support enough forced ascent across the srn portions of
the area this evening to initiate convection. 0-6km bulk shear values
during the evening are forecast to be a modest 20 to 30 knots. model
soundings do however indicate ample mid level dry air, suggestive of
the potential for localized damaging winds and large hail. the hrrr
and 3km nam do indicate a localized axis of increased 0-3km helicity
along the lead edge of the northward advancing boundary layer
moisture axis during the evening, which may be supportive of a few
supercells.

a surface cold front will be driven into se mi overnight courtesy of
long wave trough amplification/mid level height falls across the
upper midwest and northern great lakes. an influx of deep layer
moisture will advect into se mi along and ahead of this front, with
the surface based instability forecast to transition to elevated
instability. this will support high chances for showers and
thunderstorms. there is some variation among the hi res suite as to
the available elevated instability, ranging from very little up to
1500 j/kg, with href around 500 j/kg. given increasing deep layer
shear profiles, lingering strong to possibly severe storms into the
overnight are at least possible predicated on enough available
instability.

the surface cold front is forecast to slowly move east of the
forecast area on tuesday. favorable upper jet dynamics and potential
short wave impulses lifting northeastward along the mid level
baroclinic zone is forecast to increase frontogenesis along the
elevated portions of the frontal zone tuesday, possibly into tuesday
night. recent 00z model runs have trended a little more
southeastward with the axis of forcing over southeast michigan, in
line with recent trends in the ensemble members. this will place the
better chances for rain generally southeast of a bad axe to owosso
line, with the chances for heavy rain (over and inch) now more
probable just east of the forecast area. shallow post frontal cold
air will lead to notably cooler temperatures on tuesday. the long
wave trough is forecast to hold across the upper midwest and great
lakes region through the end of the week, leading to seasonally cool
temperatures with daytime highs in the 50s and nighttime lows in the
30s and 40s.

marine...

a brief lull in the slightly more elevated wind speeds will be
likely through the late morning to early afternoon hours, outside of
the saginaw bay where the southwest fetch remains favorable for
localized higher winds. some gust potential around 20 knots also
remains possible across lake erie and saginaw bay given the brief
reduction in stability through the morning hours. this lull in
breezy conditions will be supported by increasing stability through
the day as much warmer air surges over the great lakes. isolated to
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible within
the warm sector later this afternoon and evening, most favorable
across lake erie and lake st. clair. any stronger storm development
will be capable of producing gusts aoa 34 knots. a broken line of
showers will be possible with the cold front, with wind direction
veering northwest in the wake of the front. small craft advisories
remain in effect through the saginaw bay as wave heights build
towards the 4 ft mark, with the stronger wind potential favored for
this evening through early tomorrow morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...sc
marine.......am


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