Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
890
fxus61 kcle 260446
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1146 pm est wed feb 25 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast continues to trend warmer for this friday, when
above-normal highs are expected region-wide. no other changes to
note.

&&

.key messages...
1.) mainly dry weather and an overall moderation in air
temperatures are expected through this saturday.

2.) inclement weather should return this saturday night through
wednesday. precipitation types and/or amounts remain uncertain,
especially sunday night through wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
1.) a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to
build from the upper midwest and vicinity through tonight,
crests e`ward across our region on thursday, and begins to exit
e`ward on friday. primarily dry weather is expected as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. net low-level caa
ahead of the surface ridge axis, a brief uptick in low-level
moisture, albeit limited, and a w`erly mean low-level flow
should allow periodic and light lake-effect snow (les) showers
to develop over lake erie and impact the primary snowbelt of ne
oh and nw pa this evening through the first couple hours of
thursday morning. this light les is expected to produce fresh
snow accumulations of less than 1". low temperatures should
reach mainly the mid teens to lower 20`s around daybreak
thursday.

net low-level waa develops across our cwa on thursday and then
persists through friday as our region becomes located along the
western side of the ridge axis at the surface and aloft. late
afternoon highs should reach the mid 30`s to lower 40`s roughly
along and west of i-77, where low-level waa is expected to
develop sooner. farther east, highs should reach the upper 20`s
to mid 30`s. after lows in the upper teens to upper 20`s around
daybreak friday, late afternoon highs should reach the upper
40`s to mid 50`s as abundant sunshine is complemented by
somewhat breezy s`erly to sw`erly surface winds associated with
the aforementioned waa. for context, normal highs are near 40f
and normal lows are near 25f this time of year in our cwa.

during friday night through saturday, the ridge continues to
exit e`ward as cyclonic w`erly flow aloft becomes established
over our region. in addition, a weak/moisture-starved cold front
should sweep e`ward through our region saturday morning through
early afternoon. behind the front, a weak surface ridge should
nose into our region from the upper midwest and vicinity. thus,
dry weather should persist. overnight lows should reach the
30`s friday night. saturday`s late afternoon highs should reach
the 40`s to lower 50`s amidst peeks of sunshine and very weak
low-level caa behind the front.

2.) at this point, it appears cyclonic w`erly flow aloft should
persist over our region this saturday night through next week
tuesday. at the surface and aloft, the polar front should waver
in/near the great lakes region and upper oh valley as multiple
mid-latitude cyclones develop/evolve along the front. periods
of precip are expected along the front and ahead of shortwave
trough axes embedded in the flow aloft. mainly colder-than-
normal temperatures should impact our region saturday night
through monday night. snow should be the predominant precip
type during that time period. on tuesday, a warm front may sweep
generally n`ward through our region and allow for near-normal
high and low temperatures on that day through wednesday. thus,
primarily rain and/or snow should occur during that time frame.
stay tuned for forecast updates, including refinements to
forecast precip types and amounts.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
high pressure is quickly building in from the west-southwest
overnight tonight. outside of some transient mvfr clouds at eri
through about 8z, vfr is ongoing and will continue. light
northwest winds will become more variable and diminish to under
5 knots through thursday morning. winds shift more west-
southwest at 5-10kt thursday afternoon. exceptions are cle and
eri, where a lake breeze component will likely mean more
northwesterly winds in the afternoon. winds shift more southerly
at under 10kt thursday evening.

outlook...non-vfr possible as snow moves southeast across the
area saturday night.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected through thursday night as high
pressure builds over the southern great lakes region. sw winds will
increase to 10-15 knots friday and 15-25 knots friday night ahead of
a cold front. winds will turn nw and decrease to 5-10 knots behind
the front saturday before turning n at 10-15 knots saturday night
and sunday then ne at 10-15 knots by monday.

the variable wind speeds and directions will continue to shift
around the ice fields through early next week, and mild temperatures
this weekend will lead to further decay of the ice.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sullivan
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
007
fxus63 kiwx 252356
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
656 pm est wed feb 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry and mostly sunny through friday.

- highs in the 30s and 40s through thursday, climbing into the
50s on friday.

- cooler air arrives saturday allowing for a couple
opportunities for snow from this weekend into early the next
work week.

- a warming trend then takes over from early the next work week
to the latter part of the next work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1225 pm est wed feb 25 2026

this pattern will be dominated by northern stream flow in the short
to medium term. then, look for a pattern change to come around 3/4
to 3/7, when it becomes more driven by the subtropical jet.

closer to home, surface high pressure passes overhead and mid level
height rises allow for a dry day. today`s cool day behind last
night`s cold front (850 mb temps around -10c in our mi counties
around 00z) warms some for thursday, as a warm front passes by to
our north, with more like -5c in our north. the system that was
originally forecast to affect our area with snow tonight continues
to trend southward and may not affect our area at all. another
period of high pressure and mid level height rises occurs thursday
providing another dry day.

the aforementioned warm front was draped over the area by a
deepening low pressure system that straddles the us/canadian border
so that while dry weather exists again for friday, a cold front
friday night spells cool temperatures and a more unsettled pattern.
strong high pressure edges into the northern plains and a baroclinic
zone sets up just to its south. moderate forcing along the thermal
gradient causes some precipitation later saturday mainly in the form
of snow. at this point, snowfall output appears light, but we`ll
want to see how the hi-res guidance handles it to see if there`s
better mesoscale forcing within. there`s also some location
disagreement between the ecmwf and the gfs (which is slightly south
of the ecmwf). the nbm/medium range ensemble precipitation guidance
means align closer to the ecmwf and its location at this point.

cold air comes down in time for system sunday night into monday,
but timing the phasing of upper jets and deepening of the system
is key. 12z model run agreement has the system and its snow
output along and south of out southern area during this time
period. this allows for accumulating snow, but below advisory
level. should the ingredients become better lined up, perhaps we
can see some higher snow amounts, but that remains to be seen.

with the cold high pressure system now to our east and an upper low
creeping into southwestern us later monday/ monday night, warming
temperatures take over ahead of our next potential system for monday
night into tuesday. there`s disagreement in storm track on this one
and it could miss entirely to the south yet. there could also be
some onset freezing precip if accumulating snow comes out of the
sunday night storm.

that trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern takes over for the
end of next week that would lead to warming and potentially some
unsettled weather.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 655 pm est wed feb 25 2026

a low amplitude upper level short wave across the central
plains will dive southeast across western ky/tn by daybreak
thursday. west-northwest low level flow will persist locally due
to this low amplitude and will not offer much in the way of any
substantial low level moisture advection. precip chances with
this system still look to remain well south of the terminals
into southern in. some brief elevated moisture return will
provide some increase in mid level clouds tonight, with vfr
conditions likely persisting through the period. northwest winds
5 to 10 knots to begin the period will become light and
variable this evening, then light south-southwest for thursday
afternoon as a low level anticyclone shifts east across the
eastern great lakes.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
830
fxus63 kdtx 260459
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1159 pm est wed feb 25 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend thursday into friday.

- a chance of snow late saturday.

- colder sunday.

&&

.aviation...

cold advection in the cloud bearing layer between 2.5 and 4.0 kft
agl has allowed stratus to persist at kmbs and kfnt this evening.
forecast isentropic analysis highlights well organized midlevel
downglide this evening and tonight. based on satellite trends did
push back the timing of the clearing at the northern sites until 09z
otherwise, skc or sct120 is expected for the remainder of the
overnight. surface high pressure with deep layer dry air will
support vfr conditions thursday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight and thursday

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 248 pm est wed feb 25 2026

discussion...

ongoing post frontal cold air advection within gusty wnw winds will
drop sfc temps into the 20s across the rest of the forecast area
this evening while 850mb temps plummet into the negative teens.
broad subsidence within the mid levels will lower inversion bases
through the night. this will reduce moisture depth, limiting the
risk for additional snow showers/flurries overnight. sfc high
pressure will expand into lower mi tonight, resulting in a more
divergent and anticyclonic low level wind field. this and the
reduction in cloud depth will likely support partial to full
clearing, especially across the southern portion of the forecast
area. overnight mins in the teens remain warranted given the expected
decrease in cloud cover. low level wind fields will back to the
southwest thursday as sfc high departs to the east. respectable mid
level warm air and moisture advection is forecast to remain confined
to the northern great lakes thursday, with dry conditions prevailing
across se mi. daytime insolation combined with low level warm air
advection will push afternoon highs into the 30s thursday.

southwest flow will increase on friday in advance of a cold front.
this front is associated with a deepening sfc low and compact mid
level wave forecast to track across northern ontario fri/fri night.
respectable low level wind fields with 30 to 35 knots near the top
of the mixed layer will result in breezy and mild conditions friday.
ensemble means are supportive of highs ranging from the mid 50s near
toledo to the mid/upper 40s across the thumb region. little
available moisture will warrant a dry fropa friday night. the
frontal boundary will stall across the ohio valley by saturday as it
becomes oriented parallel to the mid level flow. a weak mid level
wave and enhanced mid level frontogenetical forcing is forecast across
southern mi saturday afternoon into the evening. there is reasonable
model agreement in this system producing light precip across the
area, with model thermal fields indicating all snow. ecmwf ensemble
members support light qpf amounts of just a few tenths, which would
only lead to minor snow accums if any. strong high pressure will
then expand across lower mi sunday, resulting in dry and seasonally
cold conditions.

marine...

westerly winds begin the process of gradually weakening tonight as
upper midwestern high pressure swings across the southern great
lakes. said high is quick to depart daytime thursday as a weak
disturbance slides over the northern great lakes shifting winds to
the southwest locally. associated snow showers are confined to
northern half of the lake huron. southwesterly winds strengthen
daytime friday in response to strong low pressure tracking over
northern ontario. despite 40-50kt winds developing aloft during this
timeframe, milder airmass should greatly limit overlake mixing
capping potential peak wind gusts at 30kts. an arctic cold front
quickly follows friday night ushering in a much colder airmass as
well supporting a 4-6hr window for northwest gusts to exceed 34kts
over the northern third of lake huron (currently 70% probability to
reach gales). high pressure then follows for the latter half of the
weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from friday evening through saturday morning for lhz361-
362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sc
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.