Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 101419
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1019 am edt tue mar 10 2026

.what has changed...
increased forecast high temperatures slightly for this afternoon
in ne oh and nw pa based on multiple factors, including the
continuation of synoptic-scale low-level waa and the
expectation that diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
will allow low clouds to scatter-out the rest of this morning
into afternoon. as for shower and thunderstorm potential through
this early evening, the corridor of greatest concern is along
and near the southern shore of lake erie. this is where the
synoptic and wavy surface front, continuing to settle s`ward
across southern lower mi, southern on, and vicinity, should
stall early this afternoon through early evening as multiple and
weak surface lows move ne`ward along the front. a lake erie
lake breeze should form this afternoon through early evening
along/near the lakeshore from the ne side of cleveland through
erie county, pa and augment the front. within the warm and moist
sector south of the surface front, diurnal heating is expected
to result in weak to moderate boundary layer destabilization,
steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate dcape. weak elevated
cape will continue to build north of the surface front as a
low-level return flow of warm and very moist air from the gulf
continues and steep mid-level lapse rates near 7c per km linger
over our area amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear.
these fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
sizable mucape in the hail growth zone. convergence/moist ascent
along the surface front should trigger surface-based showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening,
especially in ne oh and nw pa, where the lake breeze will
strengthen convergence and moist ascent along the surface front.
these surface-based storms may produce damaging straight-line
winds and small to marginally-severe hail. north of the surface
front (i.e. along the upper-reaches of the front), elevated and
organized storms capable of producing small to marginally-severe
hail are possible. please see discussion below for further
details.

&&

.key messages...
1.) active weather returns this evening through wednesday.
severe thunderstorms are possible.

2.) primarily colder temperatures and additional periods of
unsettled weather are expected later this week through early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
there is stalled frontal boundary located from west to east
across the southern great lakes region this morning. in the mid
and upper levels, there is a west-southwest flow aloft. warm,
moist air advection is pooling south of this frontal boundary
setting up the stage for a battleground with storms.

as for today, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may try
to develop closer to the stalled frontal boundary across the
southern great lakes. locally, this scattered convection would
be closer to the lakeshore or over lake erie. this convection is
not the main show. an upper level trough will move from the
central plains eastward into the midwest and great lakes tonight
into wednesday. scattered strong to severe convection is
expected to develop west of our area this afternoon and early
evening. these showers and storms will move into northwest ohio
and western lake erie later this evening and overnight. all
modes of severe weather is possible with damaging winds as the
main threat. the secondary threat will be isolated tornadoes as
the area is highlighted by spc as a low 2 to 5 percent
probability. some small to large hail could be possible. most
of northern ohio and northwest pennyslvania is in the marginal
risk, northwest ohio is under a slight risk for severe storms
tonight. see the latest day 1 outlook from spc for the latest
severe weather potential.

a surface low will track northeastward from southeast michigan
through southern ontario on wednesday with a trailing cold
front. this cold front will move from west to east during the
midday and afternoon on wednesday. spc has most of northern
ohio and northwest pennyslvania in a slight risk for severe
weather. northwest ohio is under a marginal risk level. the main
severe weather hazard on wednesday will be damaging wind gusts
followed by an isolated tornado threat. spc again has the area
highlighted in a low 2 to 5 percent probability for a low end
tornado threat. some small hail could also be possible. a broken
line of strong to severe convection is expected to develop along
that cold front pushing through the area wednesday afternoon.
any kinks or surges in the line of storms will be the favored
area for damaging wind gusts and possible qlcs tornadoes. behind
the cold front wednesday evening, temperatures will drop and
rain will end from west to east.


key message 2...
a somewhat unsettled and colder weather pattern is expected
later this week through early next week. a fast moving clipper
system will track through the great lakes region on friday. this
system will bring a round of rain showers and windy weather.
with this onset of the rain showers moving in friday morning,
there could be some west snow mixed before temperature warm up.
it will become windy on friday with southwest to westerly winds
20 to 30 mph with gusts easily over 40 mph. we will have to
watch trends for a possible wind advisory.

the next weather system to watch and potentially more impactful
will be sunday through monday. a deep upper level trough will
develop over the central u.s. and into the great lakes region
sunday into monday. a stronger low pressure system will track
through the southern great lakes sunday afternoon into sunday
night. a strong cold front will move through sunday night. ahead
of that cold front, temperatures will be mild on sunday in the
60s. behind the cold front sunday night, temperatures will crash
into the 20s. rain will change over to snow as the colder air
moves in and light snow will continue into monday. the
widespread light snow will transition to lake effect snow as
much colder air aloft wakes or the lake effect monday into
tuesday. several inches of snowfall may be possible early next
week. stay tuned!

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
mixed-bag of low-end vfr and mvfr ceilings across the taf sites
this morning. a mix of low-end vfr and mvfr ceilings will persist
through this morning, before lifting to vfr or even scattering
out by this afternoon. attention then turns to later tonight as
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move
east into the area. te highest confidence for direct impacts
will be along the lakeshore near the warm front (tol/cle/eri)
where tempo groups have been introduced. have also introduced
vcts elsewhere as nocturnal convection is anticipated to
increase in coverage areawide, though confidence in placement is
low.

winds are generally out of the south to southwest this morning
8 to 12 knots. winds will mainly remain out of the south to
southwest through the taf period, 8 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely with showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow wednesday night into thursday. non-vfr may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on friday. confidence is increasing
for widespread strong west to southwest winds on friday.

&&

.marine...
will continue to monitor the potential for organized, strong
thunderstorms tonight into wednesday, particularly across the
west and central basins of lake erie. otherwise, a cold front
will briefly usher in west to northwest flow of 20 to 25 knots
wednesday night into thursday morning. the next period of
concern will be on friday as a strong low pressure system moves
east through the great lakes. west to southwest winds continue
to trend stronger, with 25 to 35 knots becoming more likely,
especially friday afternoon. a gale watch may be needed in the
next couple of days. will also continue to monitor another
system on sunday which could first usher in south to southwest
flow of 25 to 30 knots, shifting towards the west sunday night
into monday behind a cold front.

above average temperatures into wednesday and elevated winds
will result in continued shifting and decay of ice across lake
erie.

&&

.climate...
daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records through
march 11th. here are the record warm high temperatures at area
climate sites for march 10th and 11th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77/jaszka
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 101043
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
643 am edt tue mar 10 2026

.key messages...

- an enhanced risk of severe storms (roughly along/west of
in-15), mainly late this afternoon into the overnight hours
tonight. a slight risk of severe storms for remainder of the
area. all severe hazards are possible this evening into at
least the early overnight hours , eventually transitioning to
a heavy rain and flooding threat early wednesday morning.

- locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight into early
wednesday with a potential of some localized flooding. heavy
rainfall tonight may lead to minor river flooding later this
week. some isolated severe threat is also possible on
wednesday east of i-69 and south of us route 24.

- a frontal boundary across the region will interact with
several other systems for periodic chances of rain and snow
late week into early next week. some light snow accumulations
possible late sunday/monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 403 am edt tue mar 10 2026

overall, no major changes at this time regarding messaging for the
potential severe weather event late this afternoon into tonight.
severe weather risk may persist into portions of the overnight hours
before transitioning to mainly a heavy rain and isolated wind threat
late tonight into early wednesday. the greatest potential of higher
end severe threats including supercells with hail to 2 inches in
diameter and tornadoes is late this afternoon and especially this
evening across the enhanced risk area.

an initial advection push of higher low level theta-e air is
overspreading the southern great lakes this morning. to this point,
this has just been accompanied by increasing low cloud cover,
with likely just enough cin for elevated parcel to limit shower
development. a weak sheared vorticity max at 500 mb is expected
to lift northeast from the southern stream cut-off upper trough
and could be enough impetus for a few showers and perhaps even
an isolated lightning strike heading through mid morning. will
maintain just slight chance pops to cover this prospect.

for later this morning, a southeast canadian short wave will
continue to allow for slowly southward sagging sfc trough across the
southern great lakes. this boundary is expected to stall toward
midday with best southward push across nw indiana near shoreline
aided by a cold lake michigan. low level southwesterlies will
increase to the south/southwest of this boundary this afternoon,
with a renewed stronger low level theta-e push toward 21z. low
clouds south of the boundary should tend to scatter some this
afternoon with some sun and better afternoon mixing allows high
to reach well into the 70s for at least southern portions of the
area. the greatest item of uncertainty in this forecast deals
with convective initiation timing later this afternoon and this
evening. the combination of the stalled low level boundary and a
mid level speed max nosing into northern illinois should provide
ingredients for initiation in the 21z-00z timeframe but the exact
location of this initial convection is still of lower confidence.
steep mid level lapse rates and well mixed layer aloft are main
contributing factors to this uncertainty as they pose a boost to
instability magnitudes this afternoon, but also a potential of
some initial capping.

there also remains some conflicting signals in the extent of
low level warming south of the boundary and depth of mixed layer
which will have a big impact on magnitude of helicity profiles
in terms of tornadic potential. locations near the sfc boundary
and just to the cool side of the surface boundary still appear
the most likely locations for convective initiation after 21z
across illinois, but there is some possibility it may take a
little longer to overcome weak cin introduced by the mixed layer
aloft when considering how shallow the frontal convergence will
be. if convection is able to develop in vicinity of this
boundary, all severe hazards would be in play for late
afternoon/early evening across western portions of in cwa due to
1500-2000 j/kg of mlcape, and enhanced low level srh near the
lake michigan reinforced low level front for a tornadic
supercell potential. additional initial storms could also
develop well north of the boundary across far northern il into
lower michigan where hail would likely be the greatest threat
but a tornadic potential could evolve with expectation boundary
may shift north a bit later this evening allowing surface based
cape axis to migrate northward. the severe threat with all
hazards possible will likely continue into at least the early
overnight hours as a strengthening low level jet provides
favorable kinematic profiles and the unseasonably moist airmass
allows convection to be near-sfc based if not sfc based into
early overnight. convection will likely take on more linear mode
late tonight as boundary parallel flow allows for congealing
storms with increasing heavy rain threat into early wednesday.

by daybreak wednesday, strong mid/upper support shifts in from the
west allowing sfc cyclone to lift across southeast ontario dragging
a cold front through the region. some isolated wind threat is
possible far southeast wednesday, although primary instability axis
still looks to be positioned across south central ohio. some snow
may mix in briefly across the nw late wednesday before precip
diminishes.

no major changes to the nature of the long term forecast this cycle
as a very active eastern pacific pattern interacts with wavering
frontal boundary for additional rain chances. a stronger synoptic
system and stronger baroclinic zone could provide a shot of
snow late weekend into early next week which will be followed by
a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 640 am edt tue mar 10 2026

broad low level theta-e advection continues this morning, but to
this point showers have had a difficult time developing. a weak
sheared vort max will lift into northern indiana this morning
which may be enough to generate isolated showers and possibly a
stray thunderstorm. expected coverage and confidence of
occurrence is too low to include with the 12z tafs. scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon as a
low level boundary interacts with increasing southerly flow.
confidence in showers and storms increases toward 00z and
through tonight as a low level jet strengthens and interacts
with a highly anomalous moist airmass. thunder mentions have
been maintained tonight with a potential some of these storms
could produce some hail and strong wind gusts in excess of 40
knots. otherwise today, the initial warm/moist advection has
led to extensive mvfr cigs. while the back edge of these clouds
is just west of ksbn, would expect that low clouds will fill
back in as a low level front drops across the southern great
lakes with a potential of a period of ifr cigs at ksbn this
morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am wednesday to 11 am edt
thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
602 am edt tue mar 10 2026

.key messages...

- isolated showers possible today, becoming wetter with rising
thunderstorm potential tonight into wednesday. the potential exists
for severe storms this evening and early wednesday morning.

- winter weather advisory is in effect for the tri cities region and
northern thumb from this evening until late wednesday morning. ice
accumulations of up to 0.10 inch is expected to result in travel
impacts wednesday morning.

- rain showers continue wednesday with brief change over to melting
snow showers by wednesday night possible.

- accumulating snow is likely friday with a dynamic clipper system
tracking through the great lakes. strong west winds in excess of 40
mph may be possible during the daytime friday.

- another strong low pressure system may impact the great lakes to
start next week.

&&

.aviation...

warm, moist flow arriving from the southwest rides over a backdoor
cold front sinking south across the area today. this produces
widespread mvfr to ifr ceilings and spotty showers at times through
the day, with a rumble of thunder also possible. highest probability
for ifr occurs through this morning and again tonight. the front
crosses the metro detroit vicinity by late afternoon before stalling
near the state line this evening. this will be marked by a surface
wind shift to northeast. the stalled front and a llj arriving late
this evening will generate several rounds of convection tonight into
wednesday morning; some storms may be severe and produce heavy
rainfall. cold wind off lake huron will support a period of freezing
rain for the thumb and saginaw valley, and did introduce into the
taf at mbs. surface low pressure tracks from northern il along the
front and across southern mi between 10z and 14z wed, with continued
mvfr to ifr conditions and a transition to all rain likely for mbs.

for dtw...low chance for a rumble of thunder through the daylight
period. fropa timing carries some uncertainty but is generally
targeted between 20 and 00z with northeast wind around 10 kt through
this evening. numerous showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity 01z
tonight to 18z wed. wind direction will carry sensitivity to
position of the stalled front in the vicinity.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through the forecast.

* low for thunderstorms today. high between 03 and 09z tonight.
medium 09z to 15z wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 412 am edt tue mar 10 2026

discussion...

northern and southern stream jet streak merger begins this afternoon
over the mid mississippi and southern great lakes region kicking off
an ageostrophic response sharpening what is already a baroclinic
environment. multiple waves/episodes of warm air thetae advection
into lower michigan will conclude with a significant wave of low
pressure along the stationary front wednesday. there are a number of
items to discuss and will refer to them by the expected time window
of occurrence.

early today. evening marine release has the surface based frontal
zone backdoored in place between flint and saginaw. surface
dewpoints to the north of the front reside in the lower to middle
30s. increasing clouds today (limiting insolation), possible light
precipitation (wet bulb impacts), and compacting of mslp gradient is
expected to cause the frontal zone to slip southward during the
midday timeframe.

21-03z south. various hires solutions, hrrr and mpas solution
support isolated-scattered thunderstorm activity tracking out of
illinois through northern indiana later today towards lower michigan
this evening. models suggest that there will be the potential for
organized convection to impact the far southern counties. question
becomes whether or not convection is surface based here in southeast
michigan as the potential exists for a rain cooled near surface air
mass and another evening marine release to suppress the surface warm
front to south of the border. both the hrrr and nam suggest this is
a possibility, although both then support the boundary lifting back
northward ahead of the main surface low at 15z wednesday. spc has
expanded the the latest slight risk in swody1 to the north to include
all of metro detroit and the tornado conditional intensity group 1
to the south of detroit. the most likely time window for potential
severe weather may be 00-05z and again 09-12z (discussed below). all
hazards will be possible based on lengthening hodograph and helicity
values in excess of 400 m2/s2.

00-06z north. consensus of guidance, including nbm 5.0 fram, href
3hr fram accretion data, and local in-house probabilistic data all
support freezing rain activity for the tri cities and northern thumb
this evening and tonight. issued a winter weather advisory for
freezing rain and up to a tenth of an inch icing that is expected to
impact travel. based on forecast soundings for kmbs which are
overwhelmingly cold in the lowest 1.5 kft agl decided to include
saginaw county in the advisory. perusing the data, heavy rainfall
rates and convection should lead to greater wet bulb cooling with a
cold northeast wind off of lake huron. the other consideration here
is that winds of 30- 35 mph will be possible off of the bay. limiting
factors for the event may be a warm ground (68 degrees yesterday)
and warm rain droplets (11c at 3.0 kft agl).

09-12z south. the first surface low reflection potentially augmented
by mcv dynamics is expected to track invof i 94 corridor. difficult
to offer much confidence in the surface stability here locally. the
nam continues to suggest lower 60 dewpoints and potentially 1500 j/kg
of cape will lift across the ohio border towards detroit ahead of
12z. will definitely need to be monitored as heart of 60 knot low
level jet will push across at the same time frame. severe weather
appears possible.

storm total precipitation amounts and qpf. nbm 5.0 qmd data
highlights the 25th percentile between .5 to 1.25 inches rain with
the 75th percentile between 1.25 to 2.00 inches. current guidance
supports highest rainfall amounts across the southern cwa. there is
a hires signal that suggests multiple rounds of convection south of
i 96 could result in some urban heavy rainfall issues. day 1
excessive rainfall outlook is expected to have marginal for all of
southeast michigan with a slight risk extending into lenawee county.

exit region to very strong pacific jet core is forecasted to dig
through the great lakes friday. all signs point to an amplifying and
dynamic low pressure system. there are differences that exist in the
models regarding in the exact north to south track of the absolute
vorticity maximum. the exact path is expected to have a definite impact
on snowfall amounts. will need hiresolution nwp in the time horizon
but a couple/few inches of snow may be possible for a portion of the
area. the big thing to add for the friday system is favorable timing
of steepening lapse rates due to cold air advection in the background
of strong mslp gradient may lead to wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
during the daytime friday.

data still suggests a powerful mid latitude cyclone will be possible
for the great lakes region at the end of the upcoming weekend. much
below normal temperatures early next week.

marine...

the pressure gradient sharpens today across the huron basin, ahead
of a more active stretch of weather tonight into wednesday. non-
thunderstorm wind gusts may approach 30 knots for huron late tonight
into wednesday as low pressure, 29.50 inches, lifts across lower
michigan. a small craft advisory is in effect for higher waves this
afternoon into wednesday afternoon for the ice-free nearshores
(outer bay and the tip of the thumb). expect several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms with the low, including some strong to
severe storms. all severe hazards will be possible. the system`s
frontal passage eventually leads to cold advection, a transition to
melting snowfall, and steep low-level lapse rates which translates
to more efficient mixing. low-end gale potential exists wednesday
night. seasonably cool conditions ensue thursday, followed by more
rain, snow, and wind with another system on friday. a stronger wind
field may support a period of widespread gusts to gales.

hydrology...

widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop tuesday night into
wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward across lower
michigan. expected rainfall totals range from 0.75-2.00 inches by
wednesday evening, followed by a changeover to melting snow from
north to south. ensemble data suggests rises on area rivers will be
expected with a chance for minor flood stage for river systems.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt
wednesday for miz047>049-053-054.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt wednesday
for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...cb
marine.......kgk
hydrology....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.