Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
832
fxus61 kcle 222043
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
343 pm est sun feb 22 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in the timing and evolution of heavier lake enhanced
snowfall tonight and monday continues to increase. the winter
storm watch for southern erie county in pa has been upgraded to
a winter storm warning from 10 pm this evening through 7 am
tuesday. a winter weather advisory has been issued for the erie
county lakeshore where the lower elevation will reduce amounts.
additionally, the ohio winter weather advisories have been
expanded to include erie and huron counties from 6 pm this
evening through 7 pm monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow transitions to bands of heavier lake enhanced
snow tonight which continues through monday across portions of
north central and ne ohio and nw pa. the greatest snow amounts
and resultant travel impacts will occur in the higher elevations
of the snowbelts. the heaviest snow will impact the monday
morning commute.

2) a clipper system will bring a quick shot of light snow to ne
ohio and nw pa tuesday night into wednesday morning, followed by
a potentially more impactful system thursday. confidence in the
precipitation type and track of the thursday storm is low.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the much advertised big east coast blizzard is starting to
organize this afternoon. water vapor loops and rap analysis show
a digging mid/upper trough over the ohio valley and southern
great lakes, with its axis taking on a negative tilt. this is
supporting intense dynamics near the coast characterized by
strong upper diffluence helping to strengthen low-level
convergence. as a result, surface low pressure is rapidly
strengthening offshore of virginia and will lift north to just
offshore of cape cod by late monday afternoon while bombing out
to around 970 mb.

for our area, light snow will continue areawide this evening
driven by the combination of the mid/upper trough and associated
pva overhead and deep synoptic moisture wrapping back westward
beneath the trough. this snow has been low-impact, but as the
east coast cyclone rapidly deepens tonight, much colder air
advecting into the region and traversing lakes huron and erie,
boundary layer flow becoming well-aligned from the nnw, even
deeper wraparound synoptic moisture, and the continued presence
of the trough aloft will set up more intense bands of lake
enhanced snow. href members and the rgem have come into much
better agreement on the timing and evolution of these lake
enhanced bands, with href probabilities for greater than 6
inches of snow in 24 hours (assuming a 15:1 ratio) now in the
50-60% range for much of the inland primary and secondary
snowbelts of north central and ne ohio and 70-100% across
southern erie county in pa. this makes sense with the expected
deep synoptic moisture and upsloping. probabilities for greater
than 8 inches in 24 hours have increased to 25-35% in parts of
the north central and ne ohio primary and secondary snowbelts
and 40-70% in southern erie county, pa, so this will be a
classic upslope snow event.

the lake enhanced snow will start to set up after 00z this
evening and will intensify overnight and monday morning as
boundary layer moisture and instability deepens along with
strong omega (lift) into the dgz. the heaviest snowfall looks to
occur monday morning due to an inverted surface trough hanging
back westward from the east coast storm to the south shore of
lake erie. there is a strong signal for this trough and
associated enhancement of convergence on all href members and
the rgem, as well as the rap and operational nam12. this boosts
confidence that the heaviest snowfall rates will occur from
roughly 09-17z monday. href probabilities for snowfall rates of
0.75 inch per hour have increased to 40-50% across southern
erie county in pa and around 10% in parts of se cuyahoga,
northern medina, northern summit, and geauga counties in ne
ohio during the monday morning commute. this will lead to
treacherous travel. the snow will gradually lessen in intensity
monday afternoon and eventually come to an end monday night from
west to east as the convergence weakens and drier air/surface
ridging build into the area.

a couple of forecast challenges: first, warning amounts are very
possible in se cuyahoga and geauga counties. if that area of
stronger convergence sets up earlier tonight or persists deeper
into the afternoon monday, then 8+ inches of snow could fall in
these areas. capped amounts at 6 to 7 inches for now since am
already on the higher end of blended guidance and there is some
question as to how much open water is on the central and eastern
basins. second, ashland and richland counties, and to some
extent portage and trumbull counties, may get advisory-level
snow amounts as well. this depends on the orientation and inland
extent of the snow bands, so kept amounts in the 1-3 inch ranges
there for now (highest in northern parts of these counties).
was confident enough to expand the advisory into erie and huron
counties in north central ohio since there is a strong signal
in href and rgem guidance for a lake huron band to affect that
area for a few hours monday morning into the afternoon bringing
2-5 inch amounts. the nnw boundary layer flow and a more
definite area of open water near the lake erie islands support
this idea.

finally, the tight pressure gradient will lead to nw winds
gusting to 30-40 mph at times monday. this will lead to some
minor blowing and drifting impacts where the heaviest snow
falls. wind chill values will fall into the single digits monday
night as the snow ends.


key message 2...
the quieter weather tuesday will be short-lived as a very active
pattern is expected to continue through the week. a fast moving
northern stream mid/upper shortwave and associated surface low
(clipper system) will drop through the central and eastern great
lakes tuesday night into wednesday morning. confidence is
increasing that this will put down a strip of light snow in far
northern ohio and nw pa tuesday night into wednesday morning,
with the greatest amounts falling in far ne ohio and nw pa
closer to the synoptic forcing. confidence is lower regarding
the specific amounts but look to be in the sub advisory range at
this time.

a stronger clipper system on thursday still looks to potentially
phase with southern stream energy leading to a deepening surface
low tracking into the mid atlantic or ne conus. guidance
continues to significantly differ on the details of this system,
with the 12z ecmwf now leaning toward the more suppressed and
lower impact canadian solution, whereas, the gfs continues to
phase it farther nw and bring much greater precipitation into
our region. this gives low confidence to the amount of
precipitation and the precip types for thursday.


&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
mixed-bag of mvfr and ifr conditions across the taf sites this
afternoon, associated with both lower ceilings and vsbys in
snow. more widespread ifr vsbys will become more likely later
this evening into monday morning as an area of lake enhanced
snow spreads southeast across the region, mainly impacting sites
along and east of the i-71 corridor.

winds are generally favoring a west to northwest direction this
afternoon, around 10 knots. winds will shift towards the
northwest behind a trough monday morning and increase into the
12 to 17 knot range with gusts of 25 to 28 knots possible.

outlook...periodic snow with non-vfr expected through tuesday
night. non-vfr likely on wednesday in snow changing to rain/snow
with a clipper system. non-vfr may return again on thursday as
another system moves through the region.

&&

.marine...
main concern over the next several days will be the increasing north
to northwest flow of 20 to 30 knots across lake erie (primarily the
western and central basin) tonight into monday as a trough sweeps
southeast through the region. this will lead to abrupt southerly
shifts of the ice across lake erie, especially on monday. winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less monday night, before shifting towards
the southwest on tuesday, then west on wednesday and increasing into
the 15 to 25 knot range. winds appear to briefly increase out of the
northeast on thursday, 10 to 15 knots, as a system passes just south
of the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 7 pm est
monday for ohz009-019.
winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 1 am est
tuesday for ohz010>014-020-021-089.
pa...winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for paz001-003.
winter storm warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est
tuesday for paz002.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
931
fxus63 kiwx 222013
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
313 pm est sun feb 22 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers expected to organize again tonight
into early monday morning withs several inches of additional
snow accumulation possible across portions of the area.
winter weather advisories are in effect for lake effect snow
for portions of northwest and north central indiana along with
southwest lower michigan.

- additional lake effect snow accumulations tonight into early monday
of 2 to 5 inches expected, with locally higher amounts
possible across berrien and laporte counties. impacts to the
monday morning commute are likely.

- additional rain and snow chances for wednesday and thursday
but confidence in exact details such as precip amounts and
types remain low. temperatures trend warmer later in the work
week behind this system.

&&|

.discussion...
issued at 310 pm est sun feb 22 2026

winter weather advisories have been extended into starke and
marshall counties due to the potential of heavier lake effect snow
showers later tonight into early monday. otherwise, all headlines
remain as is with the afternoon package.

a larger scale upper level low will continue to shift eastward to
the mid atlantic tonight while continuing to acquire a negative
tilt. upstream of the local area, another more compact upper
level short wave will drop across the western/southern great
lakes through early evening. much colder low level air will
continue to work into northwest indiana as this occurs. lake
effect/enhanced snow showers have diminished in intensity this
afternoon after stronger banding affected southwest lower
michigan into elkhart/kosciusko/noble counties. this low level
fgen contribution has been more progressive to the southeast and
weakened this afternoon.

the concern heading into tonight will be a sharpening lake aggregate
trough in response to the low level cold core working south across
the western great lakes. a more meridional flow setup and optimal
fetch raises the concern for a more dominant band setup, especially
late tonight/early monday. lake effect parameters are not
overwhelming in terms of depth of convective boundary layer and
inversion heights. one positive factor for more intense banding
tonight which played some role earlier today was a broader
scale low level fgen signal (950-925mb). the combination of the
cold core dropping south across the western great lakes and
residual more modified air from collective great lakes influence
should allow another strong low level fgen axis to possibly
enhance lake effect banding tonight. this fgen forcing may be
more transitory in northeast to southwest fashion this evening
as a vort lobe on northern periphery of the departing longwave
trough rotates back to west, allowing a weak low level thermal
ridge across eastern great lakes to shift west into se lower
michigan. rap near term progs suggest this more transitory fgen
forcing could become more anchored across nw indiana late
tonight/early monday. the other concern is that if this fgen
forcing can enhance a more dominant band or bands, this would
allow for strong lift in a shallow based dendritic growth zone
for high snow to liquid ratios of 20-30:1.

one item of high uncertainty is the potential orientation of any
dominant banding late tonight, whether it would be strictly north to
south oriented across nw indiana/far sw lower mi or possibly
exhibit some arcing back to the southeast in response to the
fgen enhancement. given the above factors and the potential
impacts to monday morning commute, did extend the winter weather
advisory into starke/marshall counties. locations farther to
the east including kosciusko/elkhart should be more in the
transitory portion of this evolution, with brief heavier snow
rates possible this evening before focus shifts to the west. for
most of winter weather advisory area, have kept 2-5" additional
with locally higher amount potential. 12z href output continues
to suggest this potential of locally higher amounts could be
maximized sw berrien co, into laporte co. lake effect snow will
gradually diminish midday monday into the afternoon as
inversion heights lower and mid level drying occurs with
approach of low level ridge axis.

temperatures will moderate toward midweek (mid 30s to lower 40s by
wed) in advance of the first piece of sheared eastern pacific energy
which emanates from cut-off negative upper height anomaly off the
pacific nw coast. windy conditions are expected to develop tuesday
in response ahead of associated cold front, with an eventual
southward sagging frontal boundary stalling across the southern
great lakes on wednesday. this stalled boundary could set the
stage for favorable storm track of next more significant short
wave kicking out of the eastern pacific cut-off from late
wednesday into thursday. gfs deterministic remains more
amplified with mid/upper trough and thus a resultant higher
impact mixed precip system for late wed/thu. ukmet/ec/canadian
all have trended to a bit weaker with this trough and thus more
suppressed with mixed precip potential. given initial sheared
nature of this system and timing uncertainty with the ingestion
into main belt of westerlies, difficult at this forecast
distance to resolve guidance spread. it is interesting to note
however, the gefs mean fields do indicate more suppression than
the gfs operational run. this will be a system that will be
monitored in next several forecast cycles for potential impacts
across portions of the area late wed/thu.

looking ahead, confidence remains medium to high in warming temps
friday/saturday before additional potential w-nw flow waves drag
another front south into the region. confidence is on the low side
in southward extent of cold air penetration late next weekend into
early next week given expected low amplitude nature of flow.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1258 pm est sun feb 22 2026

heavier snow band has shifted east of ksbn with what is left of
it now impacting kfwa over the next hour or 2. snow showers will
be more scattered to numerous in nature behind the departing
trough and prior to the arrival of the next trough and shot of
colder air which will re-invigerate development, impacting ksbn
and points to the west tonight into monday. low confidence in
overall evolution of the band and its duration/impacts at ksbn
as it shifts west. only changes made to ksbn taf was to adjust
for current trends over the next several hours and add a finite
end to the snow towards 12z mon (could be earlier). kfwa will
likely miss the bulk of the next round, but will still see snow
showers persist several more hours (just the heaviest winding
down).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 am est monday for inz005.
winter weather advisory until 1 pm est /noon cst/ monday for
inz012-014-103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est monday for miz078-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
995
fxus63 kdtx 222035
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
335 pm est sun feb 22 2026

.key messages...

- intervals of light accumulating snow continue into tonight ending
by around daybreak tomorrow.

- colder temperatures return monday and monday night. single digit
lows tuesday morning and minimum wind chills down to around 0
degrees possible.

- widespread accumulating snow late tuesday into tuesday night with
a broad swath of 1-3 inches possible.

&&

.discussion...

weakly forced environment within broad cyclonic vorticity advection
across the great lakes will continue to support intervals of light
to briefly moderate snowfall this afternoon into tonight. the
surface low pressure residing over lake huron will continue to
supply a steady lake enhanced moisture environment in the lower
levels under northwest flow. forecast soundings continue to point
towards saturation with respect to ice within the dgz and periods
of vertical motion around this layer. that surface low will
gradually begin to breakdown as it shifts southeast towards the mid
atlantic through tonight. as it does this, it will provide another
opportunity for locally enhanced convergence resulting in brief
periods of higher intensity over parts of southeast michigan through
about 8-9 pm. temperatures cooling temperatures post sunset will
also bring slightly better accumulating snow conditions. flow becomes
more northerly tonight with progression of the low and trough, which
will then focus best snowfall towards the thumb with a modest lake
response while best forcing towards the detroit metro region
weakens. snow ratios so far have been to around 15:1 and expect
similar ratios into tonight with the higher intensity snow. qpf
forecast through 7am tomorrow on the order of a few hundredths up to
a tenth of an inch brings an additional half inch to possibly 2
inches. the higher end of the spectrum will be focused across the
thumb and the higher elevations of the irish hills. any locations
that can experience multiple rounds the brief and higher intensity
snow or some overachievement on ratios may be able to exceed 3 inches
in total by the end of this event tomorrow morning.

cold advection will also be supporting some of these snow showers
through tonight and bring a noticeable drop in temperatures for
tomorrow. chilly start to the morning tomorrow with temperatures in
the teens and low 20s with wind chills down into the single digits
and afternoon highs look to hold in the 20s, possibly upper teens.
the northerly flow holds through much of the day while clouds try to
scatter out from west to east towards during the afternoon into evening
from the inbound height rises. the cloud layer within forecast
soundings is advertised to be in the dgz, so a few scattered/isolated
light snow showers/flurries will be possible with any clouds that
hold on through the day. little, if any, snow accumulation expected.
monday night/tuesday morning looks to be the coldest morning of the
week, though will ultimately depend on the cloud trends. forecast is
for lows in the single digits to lower teens and minimum wind chills
in some spots to around 0 degrees.

the next system will arrive later in the day tuesday and tuesday
night providing the next round of accumulating snowfall. a broad
swath of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with this system. the higher
amounts remain favored across the northern half of the cwa where the
better qpf resides in the model space. some models still pointing
towards very little qpf towards the souther mi border, thus a slight
trend down to around a half inch or less is forecast for the
southern mi border. there remains some variability in qpf amounts,
but look to be on the order of 0.1-0.2". upcoming hi-res cycles will
help hone the qpf details.

flow becomes northwest behind the tuesday system bringing potential
for lake enhanced scattered snow showers to linger at least through
wednesday morning. pattern remains active with another chance at
accumulating snowfall early thursday morning to thursday night.
however, this system has a lot of variability with the placement and
eventual track of the surface low, so overall confidence remains
very low in terms of snow potential. will need to start seeing more
agreement before speaking to any snow amounts or lack thereof.

&&

.marine...

the low pressure circulation over lake huron has transitioned into
an inverted trough axis as low pressure rapidly strengthens over the
atlantic coast. remnants of this trough axis will travel south
across lake huron this evening, reaching lake erie by monday morning
and leading to a final uptick in snow shower potential along the
convergence axis. flow fully transitions to the northwest monday as
the pressure gradient fills in between the coastal low and building
high pressure across the plains and ontario. sustained northerly
flow of 25 to 30 knots amidst the colder airmass aloft leads to
heavy freezing spray north of sturgeon point monday. ice cover south
of this region however precludes the issuance of any nearshore
headlines, even as gusts approach 30 knots. high pressure leads to a
brief reprieve in marine conditions and shift to southwest winds
monday night-tuesday before a clipper system approaches tuesday
night. strong low level jet ranging from 40 knots near mackinac to
60 knots over lake erie ramps up wind gusts tuesday night. stability
will be the main factor controlling gust potential, and at this
point looks to cap gusts below 35 knots.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1135 am est sun feb 22 2026

aviation...

deep layer moisture within broad mid level troughing will linger
across se mi into the evening hours. steepening lapse rates through
diurnal heating will continue to supportive intervals of light snow
showers within the broad region of light snow/flurries. this will
result in fluctuations between mvfr and ifr based conditions during
at least the afternoon. while there will be some departure of the
deep layer moisture tonight, northerly flow may drive some residual
flurries and low clouds into the metro detroit terminals. a more
notable push of subsidence/drying will then take hold on monday,
offering the potential for improved flight conditions during the day.

for dtw...periods of light snow will persist through the afternoon.
surface temperatures will rise into the lower 30s. light snow
chances will decrease during the late evening/overnight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today and tonight. moderate
on monday.

* high for precipitation type as snow.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning from 4 am to 10 pm est monday for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......mv
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.