Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
149
fxus61 kcle 162251
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
651 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of
northeast ohio through 8 pm.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and storms will continue through the area through
this evening. the main threats will be damaging wind gusts and
heavy rain that could produce localized flooding. a severe
thunderstorm watch is out for portions of northeast ohio until 8
pm.

2) showers and storms will return on wednesday with a strong
cold front.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a line of thunderstorms is along the interstate 77 corridor in
northeast ohio and will continue east over the next couple of
hours. these storms are being generated thanks to an mcv moving
over lake erie and taking advantage of an air mass with some
decent instability with 2000 j/kg of mlcape and some modest
shear with 20-30 kts of 0-3km shear. several counties of
interior northeast ohio are in a severe thunderstorm watch until
8 pm with this line moving through and warnings will be issued
as needed. the other threat with this line will be heavy
rainfall. areas along us 30 are receiving 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain in just 30-45 minutes, which may cause some localized
flooding issues. luckily, the line of showers and storms are
progressive enough to limit the overall threat of flash
flooding.

for tonight, some residual showers are possible here and there
as the backside of the mcv exits the region, there is some
slight recovery after these afternoon storms, the cold front
crosses the forecast area, and the mid-level shortwave moves
through the region. any additional thunderstorm development is
low and would remain sub- severe. the front will slow over the
southern portion of the area tonight into monday and some
isolated to scattered activity will be possible in the south
before fully exiting the region.

key message 2...
a cold front is expected to move through the forecast area on
wednesday, bringing showers and storms to the area. there will
be less moisture and instability across the region compared to
recent days and largely expect activity to remain generic and
sub-severe. behind the cold front, there will be a firm pattern
change to more of a late summer/early fall air mass with high
temperatures in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
the main message for aviation weather will some variable flight
category conditions through the evening and overnight. outside
of any scattered convection this evening, vfr conditions are
expected. within scattered convection, mvfr to brief ifr
conditions may be possible. going forward into the overnight,
some mvfr light fog and mvfr low stratus development is
possible at all taf sites. some ifr ceilings low stratus is
possible at mfd, yng, eri, and cak. mvfr to vfr ceilings are
expected late monday morning through the afternoon. winds will
start out from the west or southwest this evening 5 to 10 knots.
winds will become northwest to northerly 5 to 10 knots late
tonight through the end of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible on wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
winds ahead of a cold front are starting southwest to west
around 10 knots. winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold
front overnight with 10 to 15 kts of onshore flow expected.
waves may bump up a bit, but incoming high pressure will quickly
taper off the northwest flow to 10 kts or less on monday and
allow for any waves to diminish. high pressure will move south
of the lake for tuesday and light southerly flow will return to
the lake. a cold front will approach and cross the lake for
wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and storms and winds
shifting from southerly to northwesterly. cool high pressure
will be in place for thursday and friday and maintain light
north to northeast flow across the basin through the end of the
week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
972
fxus63 kiwx 170021
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
821 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and a few isolated storms are possible late
this evening into the early overnight hours, mainly across
portions of far southwest lower michigan and northern indiana.
severe weather is not expected, but a few wind gusts over 35
mph are possible along with some brief heavy downpours.

- dry monday and tuesday with highs in the upper 70s.

- the next chances for rain and storms arrive tuesday night into
wednesday. at this time, the severe weather and flooding risks
are very low.

&&

.update...
issued at 820 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

active series of mid/upper level trough passages continues this
evening. much of the local area appears to be situated between
stronger mid level forcing this evening, but next mid level
trough across northern illinois has been associated with some
renewed convective activity this evening across northeast
illinois. a low level cold front will continue approaching the
southern great lakes region this evening, with an axis of 2000
j/kg of mlcapes preceding it along a 2+ inch pwat axis from west
central illinois into extreme northwest indiana. these scattered
showers and storms across northeast illinois should shift
eastward across northern indiana through the remainder of the
evening and into early overnight hours as the associated cold
front shifts south. deep layer and effective shear is on the
marginal side, but given magnitude of instability and high pwat
areas, a few precip loaded cores could produce localized wind
gusts in excess of 35 mph through the early overnight. some
brief heavy downpours are possible, but these showers should be
transient and not lead to significant hydro issues. some minor
tweaks to grids have been made to account for slightly higher
evening pops across the west/southwest/south central portions of
the area, but overall spirit of previous forecast with timing
and location of pops have been left intact.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 101 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

while satellite and radar trends shows diminishing showers early
this afternoon, widely scattered showers and storms are expected
to redevelop this afternoon and evening, pivoting around the
axis of an area of low pressure centered over lower michigan.
while i can`t completely rule out the chances for a strong to
severe storm this afternoon and evening south of us 24,
confidence is very low. moderately instability is favorable for
thunderstorm development, but shear and lapse rates are poor.
this will likely end up being a similar scenario to yesterday
where clusters of storms may produce brief gusty winds but not
reach severe thresholds. cams show one final round of scattered
showers and storms this evening into tonight developing over
northwest indiana with a weak trailing cold front, but rain and
storm chances will come to an end by daybreak monday. clouds are
expected to linger overnight and clearing will commence behind
the frontal passage.

there is high confidence that our active weather pattern finally
comes to an end! monday and tuesday will be dry as an area of high
pressure builds into and across the great lakes. temperatures will
be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
dewpoints on monday and tuesday during peak diurnal heating hours
will only be in the low to mid 60s, which will feel much more
refreshing than our past week of low to mid 70s dewpoints!

as troughing builds over the eastern us and an upper level ridge
builds over the western us, another chance for rain and storms comes
tuesday night into wednesday as a cold front slides from northwest
to southeast through our forecast area. as of now the risks for
flooding and severe weather are low, but i would not be surprised if
our forecast area is added into future spc outlooks as wednesday
gets closer. particularly, along and south of us 30 may be at risk
for isolated damaging wind gusts wednesday as the timing of the
frontal passage coincides with peak diurnal heating, although
confidence is low at this time.

high pressure then builds into the great lakes and midwest regions
again by the end of the week into next weekend. temperatures
remain near to just slightly below normal with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees through the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 720 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

much of northern indiana is situated between two mid level
troughs this evening. this has produced a lull in
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. the next mid level
trough/mcv-type feature across northern illinois will continue
eastward to the western great lakes this evening. some moderate
instability is available for this short wave to work with that
should aid in some increasing convective coverage across
northeast il/lake mi vicinity through late evening as this short
wave and cold front shift east. higher res guidance has been
depicting some potential of multi-cell cluster to impact
terminals late evening/early overnight and given above synoptic
setup and overall lower background deep layer shear, this still
appears to be a possibility. with some increasing in near sfc
cin this evening, confidence remains on the low side regarding
coverage of these showers and storms, so have limited mention to
prob30 mention between 02z and 06z at ksbn/kfwa. some post-frontal
mvfr cigs are possible tonight with greater potential at kfwa.
frontal placement by monday afternoon should place greater
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the south of the
terminals with dry weather and vfr conditions expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
746
fxus63 kdtx 162324
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
724 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

.key messages...

- isolated to scattered shower chances mainly north of i-69,
particularly in the thumb, this evening-early tonight as a cold
front crosses.

- dry, seasonably average conditions for the early week period.

- shower and storm chances return tuesday night into wednesday with
the arrival of the next cold front.

&&

.aviation...

insolation leading to surface based instability and a windshift
pushing southward were enough to result in scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity in vicinity of saginaw bay the past few hours.
the wind shift will continue to push southeastward bringing a chance
of showers and/or a thunderstorm the first 3 hours of the taf period
for locations south of i 69. surface dewpoints will remain elevated
for a time this evening before low level cold advection builds into
the area. mvfr ceilings will then be possible overnight. daytime
heating will allow clouds to lift monday.

d21/dtw convection...low chance for thundestorms through early this
evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet through the overnight.

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 252 pm edt sun aug 16 2026

discussion...

the chance for isolated to scattered showers with a low chance for
an isolated thunderstorm will continue through the evening hours
with the passage of a cold front. passage of this front to take
place around 22z - 02z, with all precipitation chances ending
thereafter. weaker forcing will limit coverage, with hi-res output
highlighting the thumb region as area with slightly better coverage
potential tonight. skinny and long cape with values between 1000-
1200 j/kg, warm cloud depths around 12kft and pw values above 2"
will still bring chances for heavy downpours with any more robust
activity.

filling in of low stratus will be increasingly likely overnight
across the thumb through the irish hills with the veering of low-
level flow to the north. diffuse region of high pressure in the wake
of the front under zonal flow with daytime mixing will work to scour
out cloud cover through the morning/afternoon tomorrow as daytime
temperatures return into the low 80s. temperatures holding in the
upper 70s will be possible with any pronounced stratus that lingers
through the early part of the day. dry conditions continue through
at least the afternoon on tuesday before a second weak cold front
expands across se mi. passage of this front is expected around of
after 00z wed and will progress across southern michigan through
09z. this will bring renewed chances for rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms.

a slightly more tangible temperature response is expected after the
passage of this front noted by temperatures highs in the upper 70s
on wed and thu. decreasing humidity is also expected to continue to
work in behind the front with dew points dropping into the 50s by
thursday afternoon. confidence decreases fri-sat regarding timing of rain
chances, again which will likely be derived from another cold front.
timing of frontal passage will be contingent on progression and
strength of upper-level waves across central and northern canadian
provinces.

marine...

area of low pressure passing north of the region will pull a cold
front through the area this afternoon and evening. the winds,
currently southwesterly, will flip around to the northwest while
increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots across lake
huron. the increased northwesterly winds will reach lake st clair
and lake erie tonight but gusts should only top out in the 15 to 20
knot range. the winds tonight will cause waves to increase up to 5
feet in the nearshore zones of lake huron thus a small craft
advisory has been issued tonight into monday morning. showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front which
should end by midnight tonight. high pressure then builds in behind
the cold front monday through most of tuesday keeping the northerly
flow but at tempered speeds. next chance of thunderstorms comes late
tuesday with the next cold front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until noon edt monday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.