Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
731
fxus61 kcle 092000
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
400 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains generally on track with a few strong
thunderstorms possible in northwest ohio this evening. locally heavy
rainfall is also possible with thunderstorms on friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
through friday as a cold front settles south into the area. a few
thunderstorms could be strong to severe(level 1 of 5) and
produce locally heavy rain.

2) dry conditions return on sunday with temperatures trending warmer
into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a broad area of low pressure is located near southern lake huron
with a cold front extending to the southwest. showers and
thunderstorms have developed with weak to moderate instability of
around 1000 j/kg of ml cape ahead of the cold front across northern
indiana and southeast michigan. thunderstorms to the northwest have
produced some wind gusts of 40-50 mph in an environment with
slightly better shear in proximity to a shortwave over western
michigan. thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across
northwest ohio this evening and we will need to watch for a few
stronger thunderstorms with dcape of 1100 j/kg. activity may
struggle as it moves east towards cleveland and encounters dry air
aloft early this evening. the airmass will continue to undergo
moistening this evening and will see scattered showers and
thunderstorms try to sneak across lake erie as the shortwave passes
aloft. the threat for severe storms (marginal risk level 1 of 5) is
still focused across northwest ohio which seems reasonable.

by 00z, pw values are forecast to increase to around 2 inches across
northern portions of the forecast area. while a decrease in coverage
is likely this evening as we lose heating, scattered showers with a
few thunderstorms are expected overnight as the front sags south
into the area with another shortwave moving through the quasi-zonal
flow aloft after midnight. a general uptick in coverage is expected
again as we destabilize on friday along the front. training of
storms resulting in pockets of heavy rain are the main concern on
friday with storm motion of only 10-15 mph. href probs are showing
some very low probabilities of three hour rainfall exceeding 3
inches in some of the southern counties on friday afternoon with
activity settling south of the area during the evening.

another robust shortwave will move through the ohio valley on
saturday and have continued with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. temperatures drop back into the lower 80s behind the
front by saturday.

key message 2...
strong high pressure builds over the central great
lakes on sunday and settles south into the area early next week.
this will bring several days of dry weather.

a broad upper level ridge is forecast to develop over the plains
states next week. the eastward extent of the ridge will impact
temperatures and chances of precipitation into the middle of next
week. at this time confidence is higher in above normal temperatures
in northwest ohio with lower confidence towards northwest
pennsylvania due to the possibility of a trough passing to the north
and/or possible lake breezes. the 12z gfs was stronger with the
new england trough than the consensus and continued with above
normal temperatures for most of the area next week.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
widespread vfr conditions are being observed across the area
this afternoon as sct diurnal cu have developed over most
terminals. upstream convection has begun to develop and is
expected to move east through this evening into the overnight
hours. overall extent of convection is expected to remain
scattered, making it difficult to pinpoint a potential arrival
time of storms at terminals. ktol would be the first impacted
this afternoon with at least vcts expected. if showers do impact
terminals, conditions may briefing diminish to mvfr
visibilities. on friday, showers and storms are expected to
stick around as a weak low pressure system moves into the area.
additional non-vfr conditions are possible with these additional
showers, however overall confidence in timing remains low. opted
to handle all convection and showers with tempo or prob30.

winds from the west-southwest this afternoon at 5-12 knots may
occasionally gust up to 20 knots, especially across far western
terminals. after sunset, winds will become light and variable
before gradually transitioning to a more northerly flow on
friday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms through
saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions are expected to continue as high pressure
lingers over the area. southwest winds of 5-12 knots will gradually
become northwesterly tonight into friday morning as a weak low
pressure system move south of the lakeshore. waves will remain 2
feet or less. as the low moves south, there is a potential for
showers and thunderstorms to develop which may produce locally gusty
winds and higher waves.

high pressure returns this weekend allowing winds to shift to
northeasterly at 8-12 knots for saturday and sunday. onshore flow
across the western and central basin may result in waves building to
1 to 3 feet. this high will remain dominant into next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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800
fxus63 kiwx 091716
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
116 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

.key messages...

- thunderstorms are possible this and tonight. a few of these
storms may be strong, capable of isolated gusty winds and
heavy rain.

- thunderstorms are also possible friday and saturday but severe
weather is not expected.

- turning hot and dry next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 112 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

agreement between the gfs and ecmwf on slowly bringing a cold
front/thermal gradient southward between today and friday
night/saturday morning would indicate an, at best, marginal severe
weather risk with weak wind shear (<30 kts), but ample instability
(>2500 j/kg mucape on the nam) as well as 1000+ j/kg of dcape.
trying to track forcing is an issue with weak impulses passing
through including a weak positively tilted trough. a weak low level
jet (~25 kts) shows itself in mi from this morning into the
afternoon and then there`s also an attempt to organize a low
level jet out of mo overnight. it could be that the mo jet gets
cut off and moisture transport fails though. the midday jet
around mi appears to be colocated with large scale ascent at
times. however, the mo jet is slightly removed from the large
scale ascent on the ecmwf potentially contributing to its
failure. two distinct peaks in pwats around 2 inches or so
passing through include during peak heating this afternoon as
well as overnight. sfc dew points exceed 70f while 850 mb dew
points exceed 10c. meanwhile, as the previous shift noted, the
better moisture content identified by theta-e is farther west
and this appears to slide by to the southwest of the area or
just casually graze our southwest this afternoon into overnight.
models are all over the place for friday with some of the
guidance still retaining pops across the whole area whereas
there is a smattering of guidance keeping things south of
us-24/us-30 area. the more southward progression could be
possible if a cold pool/outflow boundary sets up from overnight
convection. all of this considered, am fine with the marginal
risk of severe weather advertised by spc, which could be aided
by cell collisions, differential heating, and the high theta-e
airmass. wind and heavy rain appear to be the main threats along
with lightning. with the cold front slowly pushing through, the
dew points exceeding 70f and highs exceed 90f in our southeast,
this would indicate apparent temperatures in the 90s, at least,
for this afternoon. these do appear to slowly trend lower as
highs dip back into the 80s with the fropa. dew points abate
later friday/friday night with the fropa.

it is interesting to see that there are still models trying to
produce showers in the relative dryness on saturday. i`m not
sold on this, but will include some slight chances for that. the
gfs appears out to lunch, but the nam/ecmwf appear to have a
better handle on things, which show the greatest chance during
the afternoon saturday.

after saturday, a high pressure system and mid level ridging stall
across the area providing dry weather from sunday until at least the
middle to end of next week (7/15-7/17 time frame) as a backdoor
front attempts to come in. it appears to be a sort of mcs pattern
with plenty of heat around. 850 mb temps creep above 18c and
sfc dew points surpass 70f tuesday and wednesday of next week
indicating potential heat headlines if enough insolation can be
had.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1255 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

scattered showers and storms are developing across the area as
a weak front approaches the region. additional chances for
storms extend into the overnight but confidence in timing and
coverage remains low. light southwest winds are expected
through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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218
fxus63 kdtx 091924
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
324 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue through the evening
hours across all of se michigan.

- isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the
primary hazards with the severe threat waning after sunset.

- dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the weekend.

- a new heat wave is on schedule for next week (3 consecutive days of
highs 90+ degrees).

&&

.discussion...

scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed across se
michigan this afternoon, with varying depths to the convective
cores. the deepest cores have topped out around 25.0 kft agl, likely
after encountering the subsidence bubble that resides in the 15.0-
20.0 kft layer and an otherwise modest lapse rate environment. peak
wind gusts in these cells have so far remained below severe limits,
although a few have come close. storm motion around 20-30 mph brings
the back edge of the storms currently near lansing through the
detroit metro area by 7 pm or so. a more organized line of
thunderstorms is ongoing across northern lower mi right along the
surface cold front, moving east-southeast. convection along this
boundary will clip portions of the saginaw valley and the thumb
early this evening, although the front itself will be relatively
slow-moving. thermodynamics are favorable for a few storms to become
severe this evening, with mlcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg in place
(spc mesoanalysis) and dewpoints still in the upper 60s-low 70s.
wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph and heavy rainfall with rates in excess
of an inch per hour are the main concerns.

the frontal zone gradually sinks across lower michigan overnight,
with models varying in how aggressively this occurs and if any of
the convective activity can hang on as instability wanes. most
models settle the surface convergence and moisture axis north of the
state line through friday to renew scattered shower and thunderstorm
chances during the day, mainly south of m-59. similar to today,
moist boundary layer conditions result in mid-day destabilization
and an early afternoon start to convective initiation. precipitation
loaded cores again look to the be main concern as lapse rates will
be modest around 5.5-6.0 c/km. the strongest cells will thus be
capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour and
localized downburst winds of 40-60 mph.

surface pressure rises begin friday night as canadian high pressure
expands south into the great lakes, coinciding with a building
western conus ridge. this releases the front fully south and clears
out remaining moisture to bring pwat values below 1" saturday. this
also effectively steers the next mid-level wave into the southern
ohio valley, maintaining an overall dry forecast for the weekend.
core of the thermal trough stays over new england, with se michigan
on the western periphery of the thermal gradient. northeast flow
keeps us within a fairly stagnant thermal advective regime
maintaining seasonable highs in the low-mid 80s.

building heat dome over the intermountain west becomes dislodged by
a deep low over northern canada, causing it to spill around the
ridge and into the great lakes region early next week. temperatures
climb into the upper 80s monday and likely into the low 90s tuesday-
wednesday. this will bring heat indices into the mid-upper 90s. less
confidence in heat potential for the back half of the week however
with much of that depending on how the upstream ridge and northern
stream low interact. positioning of the ridge to our west and
resultant nw flow pattern do look to put us in a favorable corridor
for convection, which will also influence temperatures next week.

&&

.marine...

a weak cold front settles southward across lake huron this afternoon
and evening before stalling or washing out near lake st. clair and
western lake erie overnight into early friday. scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly south of the front
during this period, with isolated storms capable of producing wind
gusts in excess of 34 kt. otherwise, ambient light wind will veer
from west/southwest to north/northeast as the front passes through.
high pressure builds across the northern great lakes on friday which
maintains north to northeast wind of 10 to 15 kt. gusts may briefly
reach near 20 kt in the afternoon across southern lake huron and
saginaw bay due to favorable fetch orientation. lingering showers
and storms are possible mainly in the south. the high pressure eases
farther south on saturday and sunday, maintaining mostly dry
conditions with light northeast wind.

&&

.hydrology...

a slow moving cold front settles through southern lower michigan
tonight serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms.
the greatest coverage and intensity is expected to continue through
the evening with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area.
basin average rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is most likely
with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm
coverage. the slow movement of the front could also produce more than
one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than
1 inch within a few hours time. this presents minor urban flooding
potential along with ponding of water on roads and in other prone
areas. scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into
friday, mainly south of m-59, before coming to an end friday
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 154 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

aviation...

convection will be the primary aviation concern for the rest of
today and early tonight. several rounds of thunderstorms have
already cropped up during the early afternoon hours. a band of
showers continues to track south-southeastward, stretching from the
tri-cities/thumb to lansing. this activity should largely remain
lightning-free at mbs, although fnt has a chance to get clipped
within the next hour by a strong storm tied to the southern end of
the precipitation band. meanwhile, further south, coverage is lower
with loosely organized thundershowers that appear to miss the metro
terminals in the very near-term. storm count will increase by late
afternoon with a few multicell storms hitting the southern sites,
plus another round potentially affecting mbs/fnt. this comes as a
cold front currently draped over northern lower michigan tracks
southward. low confidence exists in the timing of any intercept for
a specific terminal today; therefore, tempos will continue to
address afternoon and evening convection potential. the front slows
over southern lower late this evening by the time it reaches ptk,
but any residual convection should be decaying. unlikely for any
activity to persist into the early morning hours on friday, but
still not impossible. ceilings broadly start off as vfr, with mvfr
closer to the frontal boundary. some signal exists for fog
development friday morning, so added an entry-level mvfr mention.

d21/dtw convection...scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon
and evening, primarily between 19z and 02z. several rounds of storms
and/or vcts possible before friday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunder this afternoon and evening.

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and
evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......tf
hydrology....mv/bt
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.