Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
349
fxus61 kcle 201722
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
122 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

.what has changed...
the end time of shower chances has trended a little bit later
for today. confidence in showers/storms is increasing for the
weekend, especially on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning.
locally heavy rainfall is possible along the southern fringe of
the area this morning.

2) an unsettled weather pattern is expected this weekend with periods
of showers and thunderstorms likely, especially on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will continue to slowly push south across the
region early this morning, resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily across the southern part of the local
area. a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is likely through
about 12z/8 am and possibly through as late as 15z/11 am as the
main precip shield shifts east of the local area. soils are
saturated in the area of concern, which would produce a
favorable environment for localized flooding, although as of now
it looks like the heaviest rainfall will largely remain just to
the south of the area. shower and thunderstorm chances will
likely creep north later this morning and into this afternoon,
although activity will be relatively isolated as the frontal
boundary will be in the far southern portion of the cwa. shower
and thunderstorm chances will diminish as the front finally
pushes south this evening and high pressure builds into the
region. dry weather is expected on friday.

key message 2...
after a brief break in showers/thunderstorms friday, unsettled
weather will return to the area over the weekend as a series of
upper troughs/cold fronts cross the region and low pressure
moves east across the upper great lakes/ontario. the most
widespread showers and storms are expected on saturday
afternoon before precip becomes more lake-enhanced saturday
evening through sunday. saturday afternoon will be the primary
timeframe to monitor for organized storms and heavy rainfall,
although there are multiple areas of uncertainty including the
timing of the best forcing/resulting rain chances and the amount
of instability across the area as the best forcing comes into
the cwa. at the moment, it looks like the better forcing/shear
will be out of phase with the higher instability. will need to
keep an eye on how guidance trends over the next couple of days.
by sunday, any showers/storms will be confined to the typical
snowbelt areas of ne oh/nw pa with conditions gradually drying
out sunday night into monday.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
primarily vfr conditions are expected to continue through the
taf period as high pressure builds across the region. some light
and isolated showers will continue across northwest ohio and
across inland terminals (mainly tol and mfd/cak/yng) through
later this afternoon. few/sct low-to-mid level clouds remain
possible in and near these isolated showers. any reductions to
non-vfr will improve to vfr as the high moves overnight tonight.
did include a tempo group for br at mfd as guidance suggests
mvfr ceilings possible near daybreak.

generally northeasterly winds 5-10 knots will shift easterly and
decrease to 5 knots or less this evening and overnight under
high pressure. southeasterly winds of 5-10 knots will be
favored by late friday morning.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms on
saturday. non-vfr conditions may continue saturday night into
sunday in lake enhanced showers and storms across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
slightly elevated northeast winds 10-15 knots will continue
through this evening. wave heights in the western and central
basins may briefly increase to 1-3 feet. by this evening, high
pressure builds overhead allowing for winds to shift easterly to
southeasterly while decreasing to 5-10 knots friday into
saturday. ahead of an approaching low pressure system this
weekend winds will shift southwesterly on saturday. a cold front
will push east across the region saturday night into sunday with
winds turning northwesterly in the wake of the front.
northwesterly winds increase to 15-20 knots by sunday with
onshore flow likely leading to wave heights building to 2-4 feet
in the central and eastern basins sunday and sunday night.
marine headlines may be needed to end the weekend before high
pressure builds overhead early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
114
fxus63 kiwx 201758
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
158 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

.key messages...

- 30-80% chances for rain and storms arrives friday night into saturday.
highest chances in northwest ohio. the risks for severe
weather and flooding are low.

- dangerous swimming conditions expected for southeast lake
michigan beaches on saturday and sunday with high swim risks
both days.

- dry weather returns sunday and monday with below normal
temperatures and low humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 138 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

mainly dry conditions continue, however, isolated showers and storms
remain possible through sunset, especially east of i-69 in northeast
indiana and northwest ohio. a trough coming off of lake michigan and
a low departing off to our southeast in ohio should allow for a zone
of moisture convergence to set up near i-69 between now and 02z
tonight. surface observations already show northwest flow coming off
of lake michigan in northern indiana and northeast/east flow off of
lake erie in northwest ohio. visible satellite imagery already shows
scattered cumulus clouds developing in the general convergence zone
area. we have had a few widely isolated showers already today in
northwest ohio so we will have to monitor to see if spatial extent
and coverage increases through sunset. after sunset, expect light
easterly winds to persist overnight with mostly clear skies and lows
near 60 degrees.

the next chances for rain and storms comes with a cold frontal
passage on saturday. an upper level trough will dig through the
great lakes starting friday afternoon, with an attendant cold front
sweeping through the forecast area during the day saturday.
scattered rain and storms ahead of the front arrive in northwest
indiana and southwest lower michigan around 06z, gradually becoming
more numerous eastward into northwest indiana and northwest ohio as
the upper level trough amplifies during the morning and afternoon.
have maintained pops between 30-80% on saturday, with the highest
chances in northwest ohio. given a more diurnally favorable
timeframe east of i-69, a corridor of up to 1500 mucape and 25-30
kts of 0-6 km shear will support storms capable of gusty winds and
small hail, although severe weather is not expected at this time.
isolated to scattered lake effect showers may persist downwind of
lake michigan with northwest flow behind the front late saturday
night into early sunday.

high pressure builds into the great lakes and midwest regions again
by sunday. temperatures will be slightly below normal on sunday and
monday with highs in the low to mid 70s with northwest flow behind
the cold frontal passage. a few crisp nights are ahead sunday night
and monday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. with much drier
air building in, dewpoints only in the 50s will make for several
nice days! another cold front moves in wednesday with low chances
(20-30%) for rain/storms maintained.

despite pleasant weather conditions expected on sunday, it will be a
dangerous day to head to the beach. the aforementioned frontal
passage is expected to stir up southern lake michigan, generating
large waves and dangerous currents throughout the weekend.
northwest, onshore flow will allow for waves to build to 3 to 5 feet
with strong currents expected. high swim risks will be in place both
days this weekend. heed beach flags/lifeguards and stay out of the
water! a beach hazards statement will likely be needed as we get
closer to the weekend and confidence increases in the wind/wave
forecast.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 148 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

mainly vfr conditions for both taf sites this period. however,
for kfwa did keep chance of mvfr vsbys in light showers and
thunderstorms along a washed out lake breeze boundary that
pushed out southwestward from lake erie. also, mvfr vsbys for
both ksbn and kfwa in mist from 12z fri morning before vfr
conditions return through the remainder of the taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
012
fxus63 kdtx 201743
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
143 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms spread across southeast
michigan friday night into saturday, bringing widespread rainfall.
severe weather is not expected.

- cooler and breezy conditions arrive sunday with lingering shower
chances and gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions through the forecast as high pressure builds into the
area. low level moisture and elevated forcing lingering from an area
of low pressure passing through ohio last night caused some denser
clouds to hold through the first part of the day south of ptk. the
low is pulling away and clouds should continue to scatter this
afternoon as high pressure builds over the region tonight. patches
of high clouds will pass over the region as it sheds off the warm
front upstream. winds will be light and northeasterly today but will
veer easterly tonight and southerly on friday.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast for the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 255 am edt thu aug 20 2026

discussion...

an amplified upper level pattern is setting up over the conus as we
head into the weekend, with a ridge over the rockies and trough east
of the mississippi river valley.

a couple of showers survived into southwest lenawee county last
evening. a continued southward drift of the moisture gradient will
occur today, but an isolated shower south of i-94 corridor today
still can not be ruled out, as low level easterly flow off the warm
waters of lake erie may provide just the moisture/convergence boost
needed. still, li`s should hold aoa zero, thus thunderstorms are not
expected.

the next shortwave and associated surface low moves into the western
great lakes tonight, with a second shortwave and round of height
falls quickly catching up and merging over the central great lakes
friday night into saturday. good low level convergence along the
cold front will support blossoming showers and scattered
thunderstorms on saturday. sbcape under 1500 j/kg and weak mid level
lapse rates should keep activity sub-severe, as 0-6 km bulk shear is
also on the lower side (under 30 knots). euro ensembles indicate a
90+ percent for a tenth of an inch or greater of qpf, with a 20 to
40 percent chance of a half an inch or greater over the north half
of the cwa.

cool cyclonic flow for the second half of the weekend will keep a
chance of showers going, especially if the 00z canadian verifies
with the timing and position of the next strong spoke of energy
rotating through. it look to be a bit breezy as well, with gusts in
the 25-30 mph expected with cold advection and deeper mixing.

closed 500 mb low just north of georgian bay sunday evening will
maintain cooler weather to start next week. a short lived warming
trend then kicks in tuesday into wednesday, but an even deeper
trough and cold shot is forecasted for thursday and friday, as the
euro indicates 850 mb temps reaching 6-7 c.

marine...

high pressure over northern lake huron will provide light northeast
winds today, turning southeast tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. this front over the western great lakes will be slow to
advance east. south-southeast winds on friday will have the
potential to reach 20 to 25 knots over northern lake huron. showers
and scattered thunderstorms will then move through friday night and
saturday as the cold front finally tracks through the central great
lakes. strong northwest winds will follow for saturday night and
especially sunday, with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected
over lake huron as colder air filters in. gradually decreasing winds
sunday night into monday as a large area of high pressure returns
monday night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...sf
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.