Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
390
fxus61 kcle 091939
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
339 pm edt sat may 9 2026

.what has changed...
given the current trends, thunderstorms during the day seem less
likely, though are still possible. showers and thunderstorms still
remain on track along and ahead of the cold front this evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a
higher chance along and ahead of the cold front this evening. some
storms may be strong to severe with possible isolated damaging winds
and up to quarter size hail.

2) below average temperatures with high pressure building in
starting sunday afternoon through tuesday. potential for
frost/freeze tuesday morning.

3) unsettled weather returns mid week with a low pressure system
moving through the great lakes region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

residual low level clouds from early morning precipitation have
started to dissipate in western and northern ohio and should
continue to clear out throughout the afternoon. temperatures as a
result have started to climb up into the low to mid 60s with dew
points in the low 50s. instability will increase as well with the
temperatures, though how much it increases will be dependent on if
temperatures can climb a bit higher in the upper 60s to low 70s.
currently, mlcape is forecast to be around 500-1000 j/kg and mucape
near 1000 j/kg by later this afternoon with a few areas possibly
reaching above that. winds shear will also increase ahead of the
approaching cold front, though will be on the weaker side with bulk
shear around 40 knots. freezing levels will be low as well, which
could support some hail, though given the conditions above, hail
around quarter size or less seems realistic. there will also be a
strong with an isolated damaging wind threat along and ahead of the
cold front. the cold front will pass through the region between late
tonight into early tomorrow morning which could carry a strong wind
threat with it. though with instability waning into the late
evening, the severe threat will become less likely and should
anticipate more showers than thunderstorms.

scattered rain showers will likely linger behind the cold front
across the southern and eastern portions of the cwa into sunday
morning. high pressure builds in sunday afternoon and rain will
clear out by then. rain totals through tomorrow morning will be
minimal, with highest amounts in more persistent rainfall being
around a half an inch.

key message 2...

high pressure will begin to build in sunday afternoon with generally
west to northwesterly low level flow across the region through
tuesday afternoon. current models have 850 temperatures dropping
down to 0 to -3c monday afternoon into tuesday morning with winds
becoming light to calm during the time frame underneath the high
pressure. drier upper level air will be moving in late monday as
well which should clear the region out of any cloud cover by
tuesday. this will create the potential for some frost/freeze across
the region tuesday morning as temperatures will drop down into the
mid to upper 30s with some locations dropping into the low 30s. the
colder of those temperatures look to be in eastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania away from the lakeshore. flow will shift
to be out of the southwest tuesday afternoon on the west side of the
high pressure and temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to
low 60s for highs.


key message 3...

a low pressure system will enter the region late tuesday night as a
upper level trough ejects out of the canadian plains and moves
southeast into the great lakes region. precipitation will begin to
move in late tuesday night and persist through much of the day
wednesday. don`t anticipate much thunder with the system given the
arrival time, though a rumble of thunder would still be possible out
west tuesday night and then again out east with the front midday
wednesday. moderate to heavy rain is possible at times which could
lead to some higher precipitation totals by the end of the day
wednesday. will need to monitor the development of the system over
the next few days to see the potential for any rainfall related
impacts.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
mainly vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with
deterioration to mvfr and ifr vsbys in showers and thunderstorms
later this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
anticipate showers and thunderstorms to briefly impact all taf
sites with non-vfr vsbys, though the highest confidence for the
strongest storms (i.e., gusty winds in excess of 40 knots and
potentially large hail the size of quarters), is at cle/yng/eri.
light rain showers may linger behind the initial line of
showers and storms, with gradual clearing expected as a cold
front moves south through the area overnight.

winds are generally out of the southwest this afternoon, 10 to
15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. winds will gradually
increase over the next several hours to 15 to 18 knots with
periodic gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible, especially out west.
winds will abruptly shift towards the north behind a cold front
overnight, 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected in widespread showers and
thunderstorms tuesday night through wednesday. non-vfr may
linger across the eastern half of the area in rain showers and
low ceilings on thursday.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week
with no headlines anticipated. main concern will be the threat for
strong thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening with the
potential for gusty winds in excess of 34 knots, particularly across
the central and eastern basin of lake erie. otherwise, relatively
light winds of less than 15 knots are expected through tuesday.
slightly stronger south to southwest flow of 15 to 20 knots will
develop tuesday night into wednesday ahead of a cold front, with
winds shifting towards the west to northwest behind the front
wednesday night, 15 to 20 knots. will continue to monitor for small
craft potential during this period.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
690
fxus63 kiwx 091625
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1225 pm edt sat may 9 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. locally
gusty winds and small hail are possible over northwest ohio
later this afternoon and early evening.

- seasonably cool and dry sunday and monday with highs around 60
to 65.

- frost is possible monday and tuesday morning, mainly north of
the toll road.

- next chance of precipitation arrives late tuesday into
tuesday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1225 pm edt sat may 9 2026

a cold front already arriving in our northwest by 18z means better
chances for storms along and east of i-69. mid level vorticity moves
more eastward as opposed to southeastward, but some 700 mb vorticity
exists in the 21z window caught up behind the front and that paired
with the moisture convergence along the thermal gradient should be
enough to erupt showers and storms. the main limiting factor for
these storms appears to be moisture, which with sfc dew points and
850 mb dew points in the mid to upper single digits is just below
threshold for better flooding potential. given 500 to 1000 j/kg of
cape and strong low level lapse rates alluding to somewhat of an
inverted-v profile, wind damage and perhaps a hail threat appear to
be the most likely storm hazards. effective shear is right around 30
kts, but low level turning appears to be weaker and, along with a
drier profile, the tornado threat should also be limited. either
because it vacates the area or the instability wanes, an initial
guess at severe weather coming to an end is around 00z this evening.
however, there is a post-frontal thermal gradient that moves west to
east in conjunction with some more 700 mb vorticity and this may
keep showers and perhaps some thunderstorms going in a training
environment south of us-24. it is possible that we see some ponding
or flooding there as long as storms continue to fire along that
stalled front.

surface high pressure begins to poke into the area on sunday behind
the cold front leading to a dry day. that dry weather continues into
tuesday morning. as the relatively cooler air swings through the
area during this period, we`ll have to watch for some front
potential. for monday morning, the better 850 mb temperatures, least
cloudy threat, and weakest low level pressure gradient exists
between monday and tuesday mornings. tuesday, the theta-e plume is
on our doorstep around 12z and this may be enough to protect the
area. however, we`ll have to see if temps drop quickly just after
sunset and if we can form frost earlier in the overnight. both of
these mornings look like along and north of the toll road could see
frost.

the theta-e plume is into the area during the daytime on tuesday in
conjunction with the low pressure system arriving. as such, there is
a good area of large scale ascent. it is interesting to see the
large scale ascent weakens by the time we get to the afternoon. the
instability axis waits until after 00z to get into the area, though,
and that may affect the overall intensity of storms. overnight, the
low continues to deepen and develops into an upper low pressure
system over the great lakes region and cold air spills in for
wednesday. there is some question about moisture content for
wednesday, but there could be some isolated to scattered showers.
given what appears to be a lake shadow removing low level lapse
rates through the day, am skeptical of thunderstorm potential,
especially given weaker cape values. a 40 kt llj will probably make
it easy to get breezy winds between 25 and 35 mph during the
daytime, especially ahead of the rain.

high pressure and mid level ridging follow for thursday and at least
the first half of friday. the theta-e plume probably waits until
saturday (the gfs is probably too fast), but am not confident enough
to remove pops entirely from friday yet.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1225 pm edt sat may 9 2026

steep low level lapse rates and a limited area of low level
moisture ahead of a cold front, will allow for some widely
scattered to scattered shower and thunderstorm development later
this afternoon, primarily at kfwa. it remains possible that kfwa
could miss the activity as models hint at development occuring
near/over the airport and then quickly moving east. will
maintain the prob30 and close the time frame a bit. in the wake
of the front, winds will shift to the nw with vfr conditions to
persist.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...cr
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
270
fxus63 kdtx 091937
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
337 pm edt sat may 9 2026

.key messages...

- isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue until the early
evening hours south of m59. there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms.

- below normal temperatures return sunday and likely persist
through mid-week.

&&

.discussion...

ongoing convection ahead of a cold front has remained below severe
thresholds for most locations, with stronger storms producing gusts
around 45 mph and pea sized hail. one isolated report of hail to an
inch was observed in oakland county. any severe weather chances will
hold with the main line now located across port huron to about
adrian, with severe thunderstorm chances waning around or after 5pm
edt. damaging wind gusts remains the main threat with any stronger
thunderstorm, with a tornado and/or hail as secondary concerns.
please see the morning update for additional details.

cold air advection in the wake of a cold front will set the stage
for below normal temperatures through the middle of the week.
overnight, temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s but hold in
the low to mid 40s closer to the mi/oh border and within the urban
metro region. a diffuse area of high pressure supports dry weather
for most locations tomorrow with very steep low level lapse rates
producing healthy strato-cu coverage through the afternoon and early
evening hours. an isolated brief shower cannot be ruled out given
these lapse rates but they would remain weak with mid-leveling
capping in place and shallow moisture depths, which are sandwiched
between the dry air aloft and well mixed boundary layer below.
clouds erode overnight returning temperatures back into the 30s, the
coolest of which will be found within the tri-cities where frost
development will be possible.

high pressure takes hold on monday bringing dry conditions with
temperatures capped in the 50s. a low pressure clipper system/mid
level wave arrives tuesday into wednesday morning bringing
increasingly likely chances for rain showers. passage of the wave
will reinforce upper-level troughing which supports the cooler
temperatures at least through the midweek period. discrepancies
arise between models regarding the low pressure system which will
start to slow through the ohio valley and appalachia region as the
trough deepens, which will impact the west-east phase of the
upstream ridge which eventually fills back in across the great lakes
through the late week period or weekend. this will modulate
temperatures back to normal or slightly above normal values once the
ridge builds in but will also bring increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms with the building moisture.

&&

.marine...

small craft advisories continue through the afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front as brisk southwest flow persists, producing
wind gusts on the order of 20 to 25 knots. the ongoing passage of a
cold front will maintain a line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms that will travel through lake st. clair and lake erie
into the early evening. strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible with this line which will be capable of producing wind gusts
aoa 34 knots, small hail, and/or an isolated waterspout. passage of
this front will back winds from west-southwest to northwest late
this evening. diffuse high pressure builds in in the wake of the
front will diminish wind speeds overnight. isolated to scattered rain
showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening across lake
huron, but otherwise ligther winds hold into monday as high pressure
strengthens in intensity.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 158 pm edt sat may 9 2026

aviation...

height falls in advance of sharp, digging shortwave maximum is
leading to synoptic scale ascent over southeast michigan this
afternoon. instability is sufficient for scattered to numerous
thunderstorm activity this afternoon between 18-21z. decided to go
with tempo for tsra at kfnt southward through the detroit terminals.
a period of midcloud at/around 050-060 is expected in the wake of
the thunderstorm activity this evening with vfr overnight. strong
midlevel subsidence amidst a cool and dry air mass will support
quiet vfr conditions sunday.

d21/dtw convection...numerous thunderstorm activity is expected in
the airspace between 19-21z. included a tempo at dtw. low potential
for severe at any one particular location this afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon, and low
tonight, sunday.


* moderate to high for thunderstorms between 19z and 21z today.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......am
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.