Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 221947
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
347 pm edt wed apr 22 2026

.what has changed...
no wholesale changes.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across
northwest and north central ohio later today, especially between
4 pm and 10 pm. isolated severe weather is possible, with
strong wind gusts and hail up to quarter-sized the main risks.

2) warmer weather continues through the end of the week. after an
isolated rain chance thursday afternoon, more widespread rain is
likely late friday into early saturday.

3) more unsettled weather is in the forecast early next week
as the next system brings widespread rain and perhaps some
thunderstorms to the area late monday into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as of early this afternoon a frontal boundary is draped from near the
ohio-michigan boarder points east-southeast to just south of
cleveland and over to near youngstown. a very subtle shortwave and
associated weak surface low is located near the michigan-indiana
boarder and will drift east through this evening. the front itself
will likely push a bit farther southwest from its current location
over the next several hours, especially west of lorain as winds turn
off the cooler lake.

it is currently mostly sunny, dry, and warm across the area,
particularly south of the front. a few thunderstorms are ongoing
across northern indiana/southwestern michigan closer to the surface
low. this activity will gradually spread east-southeast into
northwest and north central ohio through this evening as the low and
shortwave drift in, with greatest storm coverage expected along and
just southwest of the front. storms are expected to weaken and
dissipate tonight as the weak low/shortwave exit and as the
atmosphere stabilizes. storms will likely start spreading into the
i-75 corridor by 3 or 4 pm, with activity likely to completely
subside by midnight. the northeast half of the area will stay dry on
the cooler/stable side of the front.

modest deep-layer shear (25-30kt) and instability (500-1500 j/kg of
mlcape) can support moderately intense, somewhat organized
convection. cool/dry air aloft is expected to contribute to 700-900
j/kg of dcape, with very steep low-level lapse rates of >9c/km. this
combination of factors can support a few strong to marginally severe
storms, with downbursts/strong winds the main concern with any more
intense cells or small clusters. if we see any more intense or
rotating cells, marginally severe hail can`t be ruled out either.
any severe threat should subside pretty quickly around/after 8 pm.

dry weather is then expected overnight with lows ranging from the 40s
in far northeast oh and northwest pa to the 50s across the rest of
the area. with light winds and a fairly humid airmass for april
(especially along and southwest of the stalled front) a bit of
radiation fog is possible late tonight into early thursday, though
lingering clouds near/southwest of the front lower confidence in fog.

key message 2...
the front we`ve been talking about in "key message 1" will still be
in the picture for thursday...we`ll likely start the day with the
front stalled across northwest and central oh, with the front
expected to begin inching northeast through the afternoon. the front
will stall across the lake and near erie, pa thursday night. aside
from the front there will be lack of forcing on thursday as shortwave
ridging slides east across the region. still, daytime heating will
contribute to uncapped, weak-moderate (500-1500 j/kg of mlcape)
instability that may contribute to isolated storm development near
the slowly lifting front across parts of ohio during the afternoon.
overall, thursday will be a mainly dry and warm day as highs push
well into the 70s across much of the area (erie may stay in the 60s
and the i-75 corridor may reach 80). it will be dry and mild thursday
night, with lows mainly in the 50s.

closed lows will park over the northern rockies and canadian
maritimes by friday, with a shortwave expected to slide east across
the local area friday night into saturday between the two closed
lows. this shortwave will be accompanied by a surface low that will
track along the stalled front near lake erie friday night/early
saturday. rain is expected to spread in from the west late friday
into friday night with these features, with rain gradually exiting to
the east on saturday. while the trend will be drier from west to east
through saturday, it`s worth noting it may end up taking a good
portion of the day for our eastern counties to fully dry out. some
thunder is possible late friday into friday night, especially across
northwest oh where activity should spread in late friday afternoon or
evening. the concern for severe weather is on the low side. the
slower-moving system combined with above average precipitable water
values may lead to localized qpf amounts of over an inch friday into
saturday, though with area-average qpf values currently closer to the
0.40-0.60" range. overall, am not expecting flooding.

friday will remain quite warm, with most of the area expected to see
highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80. highs will cool into the
60s saturday as a cold front drags through behind the low pressure.

key message 3...
a brief spell of quieter weather is anticipated saturday night
through at least early monday as high pressure builds into the great
lakes/new england/southeastern canada. a fairly potent trough is
expected to eject into the plains to start the week before lifting
into the upper great lakes. this will drive fairly strong low
pressure into the northern great lakes monday night into tuesday. a
warm front is expected to lift through on monday, followed by a cold
front monday night or tuesday. either way, more rainy weather is
expected later monday into tuesday, along with a brief warm-up on
monday when we get into the warm sector. this will be a more dynamic
system capable of producing severe weather and perhaps locally heavy
rain, though details such as the timing of the front and amount of
available instability are uncertain at this distance, making the
potential for any hazardous weather uncertain.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
at the surface, a very weak front is located near the southern
shore of lake erie. this front should waver in a north-south
manner between the southern lakeshore and mid oh through
18z/thurs as very weak lows move e`ward along the front.
our regional surface winds trend mainly sw`erly to w`erly
around 5 to 10 knots through ~23z/wed, but a lake breeze will
impact locations along and within several miles of lake erie,
including kcle and keri, through the same time period. after
~23z/wed, our regional surface winds trend light and variable.
however, another lake erie lake breeze is expected to develop
after ~15z/thurs and impact kcle and keri.

mainly dry weather and vfr are expected through 18z/thurs.
however, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
over/near southwestern lower mi. scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to regenerate along the established
outflow. additional, isolated showers and thunderstorms should
develop along the lake erie lake breeze front in nw oh during
this late afternoon through early evening. all of this
convection is expected to persist generally se`ward through
~04z/thurs, especially roughly along and southwest of a toledo
to sandusky to steubenville line. brief mvfr to lifr and
brief/erratic wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots are expected with
showers and especially storms.

mainly clear sky, weak or calm surface winds, and residual low-
level moisture from the expected rainfall should permit
radiation mist/fog development from ~07z through ~11z/thurs,
especially roughly along and southwest of the aforementioned
line. any mist or fog should dissipate by 13z/thurs, following
the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
possible thursday afternoon through early evening, friday
through saturday night, and this monday.

&&

.marine...
a very weak front should waver in a north-south manner between the
southern shore of lake erie and mid oh through friday as very weak
lows move generally e`ward along the front and this front is
augmented by the lake erie lake breeze at times. a lake breeze
around 5 to 10 knots through this early evening will gave way to
primarily ne`erly to e`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots tonight
through friday as a high pressure ridge attempts to build from
northern on and eventually northern qc. these winds will trend
onshore during the late morning through early evening hours of
thursday due to renewed lake breeze development. waves will be 3
feet or less through sunset friday evening.

during friday night through saturday morning, the aforementioned
front should be located near the southern lakeshore. simultaneously,
a somewhat stronger low should move e`ward along the front and cause
winds around 5 to 15 knots to back from ene`erly to n`erly to
nw`erly. behind the low, the front will exit se`ward as another high
pressure ridge builds from the north-central united states through
this weekend. accordingly, nnw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots
should veer gradually to ne`erly to e`erly. on monday, the ridge
should begin to exit e`ward and cause ne`erly to e`erly winds around
5 to 15 knots to veer toward se`erly and freshen to about 10 to 20
knots. waves should remain 3 feet or less friday night through this
monday, but occasional 4 footers are possible in open u.s. waters on
monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 221829
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
229 pm edt wed apr 22 2026

.key messages...

- strong storms possible into this evening with main threat of
gusty winds mainly south of i-80 through around 9pm.

- unseasonably mild today through friday with highs in the mid
70s to around 80 degrees.

- more storms friday and early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm edt wed apr 22 2026

a weak disturbance and associated frontal boundary will push
southeasterly this evening. ahead of this disturbance is decent
surface instability with values of 1500-2500 j/kg due to the
unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. marginal mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 deg/km and bulk
shear values mainly less than 20 kts will keep the storms
relatively unorganized and on the weak side, however as seen
already today over lake michigan a fairly organized and slow
moving storm had developed in the close proximity to the
boundary. so storms will mainly remain the garden variety but a
few isolated storms could become stronger. the main threat would
be gusty outflow winds, forecasted downdraft cape values around
500-800 j/kg will be available. some small hail would also be
possible but should remain less than 0.75 inch. these storms
will move southeastward with the disturbance through the evening
and expected to push out of the area around 9-10 pm edt.

thursday looks to remain quiet weather wise through the majority
of the day with again a continuation of much above normal
temperatures with highs again in the upper 70s to low 80s.
an approaching cool frontal boundary begins to push
southeastward on friday bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures with the
increase in clouds with highs on friday in the 70s. into the
weekend cooler temperatures although still slightly above normal
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for both saturday and
sunday. a few remaining showers will persist on saturday but
sunday looks to be dry and should be a fairly nice spring day
with ridging pushing in from the west.

by monday into tuesday another trough will move eastward into
the area increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across the
area. as mentioned in the previous discussion wpc rainfall
forecast still has around 0.75-1.00 inch on monday which may
hamper river levels from dropping as fast and even may bring
some slight increases. of course, this is depending on where
exactly the rain falls that will determine which rivers are
affected and by how much. definitely will continue to keep an
eye on this potential. high temperatures in the 70s on monday
and cooler temperatures tuesday and wednesday with highs only in
the 60s and rain showers.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1236 pm edt wed apr 22 2026

as of 1630z, one storm has developed over southern lake michigan
on the warm side of a stationary front located near grand
rapids. additional scattered storms are expected to develop this
afternoon between 18-21z across northern indiana south of i-80
and sink southeast through the evening. outside of scattered
storms this afternoon and evening, vfr conditions prevail. have
maintained chances for storms between 19-23z at kfwa with
potential for mvfr ceilings and visibilities. in any storms,
small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain will all be possible
hazards. after sunset, any remaining showers and storms should
dissipate and winds will become light and variable.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen/skipper
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 221920
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 pm edt wed apr 22 2026

.key messages...

- there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening for areas near the ohio border. main threats are large
hail and gusts to 60 mph.

- above normal temperatures through the second half of the week.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms friday.

&&

.discussion...

high pressure to the north extends south through the majority of the
cwa until it runs up against a stalled front wavering along the i 94
corridor. a weak low over southern lake mi, seen as a swirl of low
clouds on satellite, is forecast to release along the front through
the afternoon. the region south of the front is a moisture rich
(dewpoint in the 60s), moderately unstable 1000-1500 j/kg sbcape),
low shear (6km bulk shear ~20 knots) environment supportive of
convective development similar to what we saw last evening.
convection has already began over southern lake mi which is now
drifting into sw lower mi and northern in. low level lapse rates are
good combined with surface convergence along the boundary which will
help storms develop through the heat of the day. first storm of the
day had an impressive hail core with it and with the instability and
lapse rates, hail should continue to be a concern. low shear will
hamper things a bit but cool air aloft will keep a mention of strong
wind gusts as well. spc has upgraded the dy1 outlook to a marginal
risk across lenawee and monroe counties to account for the slightly
higher confidence for strong to severe storms this
afternoon/evening.

amplified longwave pattern shifts eastward on thursday, with ridging
encompassing the great lakes. a very energetic upper level trough
with multiple vort maxes rotating about each other will cause the
pattern to briefly stall with the moisture axis along the upper ms
river valley and into the midwest. subsidence looks to cap the area
most, if not all of the day as the front to the south gets drawn
back north. there are some cams that offer some isolated showers
during peak heating but soundings suggest we`ll be too stable and
surface dewpoints only in the 40s to low 50s will also limit shower
potential.

next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives late
friday through friday night as strong westerlies rounding the base
of the long wave trough provide an eastward push to the leading arc
of vorticity releasing from the parent trough. this combined with
the ridge axis crossing the area allowing for southerly return flow
to bring mid to upper 50 dewpoints back into the region. a surface
low will develop along the extension of the warm front and then
track through the region friday night. spcs swody3 still has most of
the region with general thunder during this period. current qpf for
this period is around a half inch in the 18 hour period.

high pressure builds back saturday and will persist into monday
before the next spoke of the trough rotates through the region.
highs will be in the 70s through the end of the week before settling
back in the 60s this weekend into next week.

&&

.marine...

weak stalled frontal boundary offers a shot at a few thunderstorms
over lake erie this evening. otherwise the central great lakes holds
under high pressure tonight through thursday maintaining benign
marine conditions. developing low pressure over the upper midwest
eventually pushes into the great lakes friday night-saturday
supporting the next chances for wider spread showers and
thunderstorms. in advance of the low friday, southeasterly winds
strengthen with gusts around 30kts possible over the northernmost
waters of lake huron as winds funnel toward the straits. another
area of high pressure then builds in later this weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1252 pm edt wed apr 22 2026

aviation...

high pressure anchored over the region will maintain generally dry
and stable conditions across southeast michigan this taf period. a
frontal boundary draped along the ohio border will become the focus
for shower and thunderstorm development during the early evening
hours. while a more favorable environment will remain along/south of
this boundary, a very low probability exists for an isolated shower
or thunderstorm to occur near dtw and points southward across the
detroit airspace. the potential remains too low to offer a defined
mention at this time. otherwise, some increase in high based vfr
cloud possible as moisture improves briefly north of this front this
evening. elsewhere, limited cloud into tonight as winds become light
from the east/southeast.

for dtw/d21 convection...potential for convection to develop across
southern sections of the airspace early this evening. the
probability for a thunderstorm to occur at dtw remains very low.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for thunderstorm occurrence this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......kdk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.