Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
389
fxus61 kcle 311737
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
137 pm edt sat oct 31 2026

.what has changed...
have introduced slight chance pops to western portions of the
area to account for the potential of very light rain showers
through early this evening, but otherwise no changes needed with
this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue to influence the area into the start
of next week allowing for quiet weather and gradually warming
temperatures.

2) periodic showers are possible early next week before becoming
more widespread mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
latest radar (as of early this afternoon) places portrays
showers across the western half of the area, although dry air
near the surface will likely prevent the vast majority of the
precipitation from reaching the surface. nonetheless, some very
light rain showers may periodically occur west of i-71 through
early this evening so have introduced slight chance pops for the
next several hours. otherwise, halloween will remain dry and
mostly cloudy with temperatures generally falling into the 40s
and lower 50s tonight. the only exception will be mid to upper
30s across interior eastern crawford/erie counties in pa. high
pressure will gradually shift east through the rest of the
weekend and early next week, providing dry weather and gradually
increasing temperatures through tuesday. tuesday will likely be
the warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the 70s
expected.

key message 2...
a pattern shift is expected for mid to late week as the
aforementioned high shifts east and a low pressure system
approaches from the west. showers may sneak into northwestern
zones as early as late tuesday, but guidance generally favors
dry weather until the low`s accompanying cold front nears the
local area early wednesday. from there, periodic showers are
likely as the front crosses the cwa through thursday with
additional scattered showers possible as a secondary cold front
moves through on friday. as far as temperatures go, temps in the
70s will likely continue into wednesday before dropping back
into the 60s for the end of the week.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr ceilings will continue through the next 24 hours. winds will
be light from the southeast 5 to 10 knots through sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain on tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.marine...
winds will generally be out of the south/southeast at around 10
knots or less through the remainder of the weekend and likely
into monday. by tuesday night, the approach of a cold front
will allow offshore winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots. small
craft advisories may be needed if winds trend higher, but the
southerly flow will focus any higher waves into the open waters.
winds will diminish throughout the day wednesday with onshore
flow developing behind the cold front at some point thursday.
will need to keep an eye on the wind and wave forecast for late
week; as of now, winds will likely remain between 15 and 20
knots which would result in waves of 2 to 4 feet, but any
increase in winds may necessitate small craft advisories.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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542
fxus63 kiwx 311903
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
303 pm edt sat oct 31 2026

.key messages...

- a few light showers or sprinkles linger tonight into sunday, but
most areas will experience mainly dry weather.

- very warm on tuesday followed by increasing rain chances through
wednesday (60% chance).

- windy conditions are possible for a time on tuesday as south
winds becoming gusty in advance of a cold front.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt sat oct 31 2026

low coverage light rain/sprinkle potential will continue through the
remainder of the weekend but most areas will remain mainly dry.

an area of light rain/sprinkles has slowly migrated east-northeast
across northeast indiana into northwest ohio this afternoon and
these light rain showers appear to be tied to a zone of better
290-300k isentropic forcing. a weak easterly flow regime has
kept subcloud layer dry with most areas only experiencing a
trace to few hundredths of an inch. an exception to this was
early this morning across western indiana where bands of better
amounts were realized.

into this late afternoon/early evening, guidance is in general
agreement that the initial stronger isentropic lift should weaken as
zone of favored advective forcing lifts across southern lower
michigan. as we head toward overnight into sunday am, some
indications that a second push of stronger isentropic forcing
may tend to lift south to north across east central illinois
into west central indiana as a more defined vort max approaches
the mid ms river valley. despite the approach of this wave, low
level moisture transport still looks limited locally and more
favorable back across the mid ms rvr valley. this argues for
just maintaining 20% mention of measurable precip mainly for
west/southwest locations. sunday should feature a better chance
of slightly better mixing that could support highs reaching
near 70 across the far south/southeast.

will still maintain dry conditions for monday as the
aforementioned short wave trough dampens in a background
synoptic flow that continues to prefer longwave ridge
maintenance across central conus. some better low level moisture
transport will begin to develop later in the day monday as low
level profiles begin to veer slightly, although still more
impressive deeper transport profiles are expected to remain
anchored back to the west, and this better moisture transport
will only begin once mid/upper level forcing begins to wane.

attention for tue/wed will be on more amplified and larger scale
upper trough expected to track across central conus. despite high
amplitude, upper level forcing in terms of inducing low level height
falls looks rather modest, with much of low level negative height
tendencies will likely be derived from a broad pocket of highly
anomalous warm low level air. the upstream system also still
looks to occlude fairly quickly. better moisture pooling should
be in relatively narrow frontal zone, but a period of likely
pops still appears in order late tuesday into wednesday.
instability in occluded sector will be rather meager, although
cannot completely rule out a rumble of thunder. a period of
windy conditions may develop on tuesday with best chance of
deeper mixing during the afternoon hours. tuesday should feature
the warmest day of the period with highs back into the low-mid
70s (could approach records for the date).

no notable intrusion of significantly colder air will accompany
frontal passage midweek, with above normal temperatures
expected to continue through the end of next work week. some low
rain chances were maintained in the long term day 4-7 period
with at least the possibility of southern stream disturbance
developing out of west coast split flow meandering across ohio
river valley late in the work week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1209 pm edt sat oct 31 2026

sprinkles and scattered light rain showers are expected to
persist this afternoon and evening. winds remain out of the
southeast around 10 kts this afternoon, becoming light and
variable overnight. vfr ceilings and visibilities will prevail
with ceilings between 8-10 kft.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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623
fxus63 kdtx 311922
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
322 pm edt sat oct 31 2026

.key messages...

- mild and mostly cloudy through early next week.

- warmer on tuesday with an increasing chance of rain mid-week.

&&

.discussion...

slow progression of governing synoptic features maintains benign
weather through the weekend and into early next week. the 12z dtx
raob showed stable conditions and the saturation between 700 and
550mb responsible for the mostly cloudy day. satellite imagery
reveals a vast swath of the central conus shrouded in mid-level
cloud, boosting confidence in a continued mostly cloudy forecast
going forward as this cloud is steered around the se conus 700mb
ridge. a few sprinkles will be possible at times where transient
pockets of forcing emerge within an ill-defined warm frontal
structure aloft. the blanket of clouds maintains milder conditions
tonight, with evening temperatures in the mid 50s settling into the
40s and lower 50s overnight.

despite the clouds, positive thickness advection will help boost
high temps back into the 60s sunday and monday. a 30% chance for
light showers arrives monday evening and overnight as an upstream
low sends a more organized arm of theta-e advection across the great
lakes. the bulk of the moisture transport is forecast to hold
upstream. arrival of the warm sector tuesday brings high temps some
15 to 20 degrees above normal, near 70 degrees.

evolution of the upstream low exhibits increasing spread beyond
monday, but in general a pattern shift is looking likely by mid to
late week as a pacific wave eventually makes its way across the
great lakes. the wave nearly cuts off from the steering flow as it
tracks over the plains monday, then a northern stream shortwave
descends from central canada on tuesday. the interaction of these
waves opens the door for significant differences to arise wrt timing
of precip locally. later solutions that bring rain in late wednesday
are driven by a much stronger system that occludes sooner over the
plains, delaying arrival of meridional moisture transport. earlier
solutions, which make up a smaller portion of the ensemble
membership, appear to result from a slightly stronger system over
the corn belt that`s capable of producing greater poleward moisture
transport, but not so strong that the low completely occludes
upstream. ultimately, most of the sensitivity in the forecast comes
from the forward speed of the pacific trough which will come into
focus the next few forecast cycles. highest confidence in precip at
this stage is currently on wednesday, at around 60 to 70%.

&&

.marine...

expansive high pressure centered over the central and eastern great
lakes this afternoon will slowly exit east this weekend. light
southerly winds will prevail for the second half of the weekend.
southerly winds will increase early next week as low pressure
develops over minnesota and lingers into the midweek. wind gusts are
expected to peak out 25 to 30 knot range, as warm air (lower teens
at 850 mb) keeps mixing depths in check. enough moisture is expected
to advect into the great lakes region to support increased coverage
of showers tuesday and wednesday. showers could potentially linger
into thursday as either the primary cold front or a weaker low
pressure system tracks through. wind speeds and direction remain
uncertain for thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1240 pm edt sat oct 31 2026

aviation...

strong high pressure centered over the eastern great lakes today and
tonight will sustain light winds and a feed of dry air in the low
levels across se mi. despite the continued influx of moisture aloft,
this low level dry air will maintain vfr conditions through the taf
period. intervals of warm air advection aloft have supported a few
light rain showers/sprinkles. while isolated showers/sprinkles may
persist through the day, the impacts to aviation will be minimal.

dtw/d21 convection...no convection will occur through the taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......sf
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.