Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
245
fxus61 kcle 291139
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 am edt sun mar 29 2026

.what has changed...
have introduced some low rain chances tonight for north central
and northeast ohio with the warm front. there is a slowing trend
for tuesday night`s cold front and any associated rain and
storm chances are trending later tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) a sequence of warm fronts will parade through the area today
and monday, increasing temperatures to well above normal and
bringing low rain chances through tuesday.

2) a cold front will move through the region tuesday night into
wednesday bringing widespread showers and some storms before a
sharp temperature drop back toward normal.

3) a system will enter the ohio valley for thursday and friday
and another will follow for saturday, bringing more rain
chances late in the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a pair of warm fronts will move through the region over the next
36 hours, allowing for a return to spring-like temperatures. the
first front will move through today with high pressure moving
east of the region. temperatures will recover into the 50s, and
perhaps some lower 60s, with dry conditions and mixed
cloudiness. tonight, some moisture will advect into the region
and the isentropic lift could allow for a couple isolated
showers to move through. the warm front will get caught up
around the lake and some showers and storms could flare up on
monday afternoon with the northwest flow aloft and the surface
front nearby. a secondary warm front will enter on monday night
and bring widespread 70s for tuesday with mid-to-upper 50s dew
points. the warm sector of this front should mix well on tuesday
and expect afternoon southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph across
the area. this front should clear the lake and any convection
that tries to develop during the day on tuesday should stay to
the north of the forecast area.

key message 2...
the mid-week cold front has been trending slower over the last
couple of model cycles with the upper level trough trending
further north and weaker. therefore, the rain and storm chances
across the region will also slow to later on tuesday night into
wednesday. this slower, nocturnal timing would also allow for a
less favorable atmosphere for organized strong or severe storms.
the cold front will still come with a sharp temperature drop
with most areas 20-25 degrees cooler on wednesday than high
temperatures on tuesday. however, temperatures will remain in
the 50s, which is near normal for the first day of april.

key message 3...
there is growing consensus on a low pressure system moving
through the ohio valley on thursday and friday, allowing for
temperatures to rise back above normal with some rain chances.
however, this system is largely dependent on the mid-week cold
front timing, which has trended slower. for now, it appears that
the best period for rain will be thursday night, but if the
slowing trend continues, then more of friday could be in play
for rain. there should be a reprieve of about 24 hours or so
before another warm front enters the region ahead of the next
low pressure system. temperatures should continue to trend above
normal into the weekend with rain chances on saturday with this
second system.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr will continue through most of tonight as high pressure
overhead moves to the mid-atlantic region. some mid-high level
clouds will pass through at times. clouds will thicken and lower
to around 5,000 feet overnight tonight as low-level moisture
begins increasing, with a few light showers possible across
parts of north-central and northeast ohio late tonight into
early monday morning. confidence in showers impacting any given
terminal is currently too low to include more than vcsh.

light south-southeast winds this morning will gradually turn
south-southwest and increase to 10-15kt this afternoon, with a
few 20-25kt gusts possible from cle-mfd points west. winds remain
south-southwest at near 10kt tonight, with low-level wind shear
possible overnight as a 40-45kt low-level jet works overhead.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers or isolated thunderstorms
late monday through early tuesday. non-vfr likely tuesday
night into wednesday as a cold front brings higher confidence in
showers and thunderstorms, with lingering lower ceilings behind
the front. additional non-vfr possible in rain on thursday.

&&

.marine...
south-southwest winds will generally remain 15 knots or less
through monday evening. stronger south-southwest winds in the
15-25 knot range develop late monday night through tuesday
evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
this front crosses tuesday night, shifting winds briefly more
northerly. small craft advisories will be needed ahead of and
with this frontal passage. after perhaps a very brief lull on
wednesday, an unsettled pattern continues to end the work week.
a wave of low pressure is likely to track out of the ohio valley
and into the southern/eastern great lakes thursday and friday,
with the front attempting to lift back north as a warm front
before sweeping southeast as a cold front behind the low.
periods of elevated flow prompting more small craft advisories
are likely wednesday night through friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
905
fxus63 kiwx 291052
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
652 am edt sun mar 29 2026

.key messages...

- steadily increasing temperatures today and monday. tuesday
will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

- periodic rain and storm chances monday night through thursday. highest
chances will be tuesday evening into early wednesday (60-
80%).

- a few storms could be strong to severe monday night/early tuesday
and again tuesday night/early wednesday.

- cooler midweek with additional opportunties for rain through
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 339 am edt sun mar 29 2026

an expansive high pressure system is centered over the mid atlantic
coast, with dry conditions continuing across much of the
midwest and the eastern conus. infrared satellite imagery shows
mid level clouds streaming in from the northwest; with
subsidence in the lower levels, these clouds are likely enhanced
by increased mid level moisture. clouds will dissipate
throughout the morning. highs this afternoon will be in the
upper 50s to low 60s as southerly flow continues. prevailing
southerly winds and increasing waa over the next several days
will allow for temperatures to steadily warm. strong waa peaks
on tuesday with highs in the 70s, with locations south of us 24
making a run for 80 degrees. tuesday will be the warmest day of
the week before more seasonable temperatures return for the
rest of the week.

our attention then turns to the active weather pattern ahead this
week. moisture return will be gradual, but as high pressure moves
offshore, southerly winds will usher in moisture from the gulf. by
monday night into tuesday, strong moisture transport at 850mb will
allow for dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s. chances
for rain and storms arrive monday night as a warm front lifts north
across northern indiana and a surface low tracks across the midwest
into the upper great lakes. thunderstorm activity will be
concentrated mainly north of i-80/i-90 where elevated instability
will be present and there will be lift in the vicinity of the front.
a few storms could be strong to severe monday night into early
tuesday morning, especially in the marginal risk area in lower
michigan.

with a breezy and warm tuesday ahead, we are monitoring potential
for thunderstorm development with the system`s attendant cold front
on tuesday evening into early wednesday. destabilization should
occur sometime tuesday afternoon/evening within the warm sector. the
northern half of our forecast area is in a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather on tuesday. some storms could be strong to
severe, but lots of uncertainties remain. compared to yesterday, the
environment still looks favorable in some aspects but the overall
setup has me questioning whether or not the timing will be the
biggest factor the synoptic environment is somewhat favorable with a
positively tilted trough and a 40-50 kt low level jet (moderately
strong) tuesday evening. forecast soundings indicate we will have
both speed and directional shear tuesday evening as well. despite
this, timing of the cold front remains the biggest uncertainty as it
looks like it may be diurnally unfavorable. models have the cold
front passing through tuesday late evening or early wednesday with
storms out ahead of it. instability and lapse rates may peak well
before the front gets here though. with waning instability and lapse
rates after sunset tuesday, we may still get thunderstorms but they
may not be able to reach strong to severe thresholds. the timing of
the frontal passage and best shear tuesday evening appears
disjointed with the better instability and lapse rates that occur
within the warm sector tuesday afternoon.

temperatures crash on the backside of the front on wednesday, with
highs likely being reached for the day around midnight. temperatures
will then be in the 40s during the day wednesday. mild air then
gradually returns as temperatures moderate into next weekend. the
active weather pattern continues with additional chances for rain on
thursday as a stationary front may stall over the ohio and mid
mississippi river valleys. more rain is possible next weekend too as
our active weather pattern looks to continue into early april.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 650 am edt sun mar 29 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminal this period with
light southerly winds. winds late this morning/afternoon will
pick up to around 13kts gusting up to around 22kts. llws to 40
knots is expected after 6z tonight, with ceilings around
5-10kft.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
648
fxus63 kdtx 290943
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
543 am edt sun mar 29 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend progresses through the 50s today, 60s monday, and
into the lower 70s tuesday.

- dry weather also continues today through monday and then showers
become likely monday night and tuesday with a chance of
thunderstorms. an isolated storm could approach severe intensity
monday night.

- temperatures drop back to normal or slightly below normal for
wednesday through late week.

&&

.aviation...

se mi holds on the far western fringe of mid-atlantic high pressure
today. cloud cover is confined to mid/high cloud streaming in from
the upper midwest through tonight. southwest winds hold around 10kts
with afternoon gusts peaking between 15-20kts.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 am edt sun mar 29 2026

discussion...

after a chilly day saturday, despite plentiful late march sun, the
warming trend gets underway today and continues through the early
week across se mi. there is a greater component of mid and high
clouds today, however dry weather and sw wind with 20 kt gusts are
supportive for temperatures rising into the mid 50s, a few degrees
above late march normals. wind decouples tonight but gradient flow
hovers around 10 kts, enough to counter the radiational cooling
influence of mostly clear sky. a few of the more sheltered locations
could drop into the upper 30s while most locations hold lower to mid
40s by monday morning.

southern lower mi remains between atlantic coast high pressure and
broad central plains low pressure that becomes the forecast focus
for the early week period. the warm sector solidifies between these
systems during monday, at least for southern portions of the great
lakes that remain south of the frontal zone hovering across ontario,
northern lower mi, and extending to the plains low pressure system.
there is some evidence in the new 00z models that suggests we
monitor the position of this front that could leak into the tri
cities and northern thumb during the afternoon under mostly zonal
flow aloft. prospects are much more certain on the next stage of the
warming trend for the rest of se mi where guidance brings high
temperatures up into the mid and upper 60s, despite increasing
clouds during the afternoon.

plains low pressure migrates into the midwest and northern great
lakes while becoming the focus for increasing coverage of showers
and potential for thunderstorms approaching severe intensity monday
night and tuesday. an elevated convective character monday night is
supported by increasing mid level moisture transport into lower mi
within a plume of 700-500mb lapse rate of 7-8 c/km yielding lref
mean mucape in the 1000-1500 j/kg range. this is plenty sufficient
for numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, especially after
midnight into tuesday morning. the day 2 marginal risk is tied to
elevated updraft organization supporting hail production within this
instability profile accompanied by westerly bulk shear near 40 kts.

monday night activity shifts into the northern great lakes tuesday
morning as the surface based warm sector builds north of the ohio
border. the warm sector builds into southern lower mi ahead of a
surface low and frontal pattern still showing some solution spread
on timing and location details across the northern great lakes.
solutions trending slower/farther north and west just allow more
time for instability to increase within an initially cloudy warm
sector early in the day. temperature projections reaching the lower
to mid 70s lift mean surface based cape back to near 1000 j/kg,
especially toward the ohio border. the accompanying wind profile is
unidirectional with 30-40 kts of westerly bulk shear, plenty
sufficient for organized surface based convection by mid tuesday
afternoon into tuesday evening.

the trailing cold front is through the great lakes by wednesday
morning and sends temperatures back down into the 40s through
thursday. a light rain/snow mix is likely early thursday as the
front stalls nearby to the south and then moves northward with the
next low pressure system friday and saturday.

marine...

southwest flow is in place this morning, while surface pressure
gradually falls as the high pressure center drifts into the mid-
atlantic. dry conditions are expected most of today into monday
while winds and waves hold well below headline thresholds. a more
active period begins monday night as a warm front moves into
northern lake huron, backing flow to the east north of the front.
the approaching low triggers widespread shower development by
tuesday morning near the warm front, with the system`s cold front
sweeping through later tuesday. the front provides a more focused
opportunity for thunderstorms, followed by a quick shift in winds to
the northwest. widespread wind gusts are not expected to exceed 30
knots during this timeframe, but could do so on an isolated basis in
thunderstorm activity. high pressure then fills in for the mid-week
period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...bt
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.