Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
297
fxus61 kcle 282328
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

.what has changed...
with this update, added the potential for patchy dense fog
tonight, especially across the south central portion of the
area.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions with gradually increasing temperatures
expected through thursday.

2) chance of rain returns late thursday into friday with the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to influence the weather across
northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania through thursday as a
dominant ridge aloft takes a while to shift. beginning
wednesday, this high will begin to slowly shift towards the
mid-atlantic coast, resulting in a southwest flow developing
across the area. this will allow for increased moisture
advection from the gulf and warmer air pushing north. highs to
start this week will be in the upper 60s to low 70s but are
expected to gradually increase through the week to be in the
upper 70s to low 80s thursday.

key message 2...
as the aforementioned ridge begins to break down and push east
midweek, an upper level trough associated with a surface low
near the four corners region will begin to push east towards the
area. the northern portion of this trough will move into the
area late thursday, ultimately allowing a cold front to sag
south across the area into friday. ahead of this system,
increased moisture from a persistent southwest flow will allow
for the strong front to bring widespread rain to the area. given
the initial onset of showers overnight, not currently expecting
any thunder. however, given a general slowing in the
precipitation onset amongst models, if the main cold front
pushes east on friday versus thursday night, the area could see
some thunderstorms activity. this trough should push east late
friday, allow for a weak high to build across the area saturday
before another trough brings rain to the area sunday.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
scattered to broken mid-level clouds will persist across
portions of ne oh/nw pa through this evening. by late
tonight/early tuesday morning, fog and low stratus will develop
across the area. most terminals will experience a period of
mvfr/ifr conditions, although areas of lifr conditions are
likely especially at inland terminals between roughly 09z and
12z tuesday morning. conditions will gradually improve tuesday
morning into tuesday afternoon with vfr expected within a couple
of hours of sunrise.

expect light and variable winds during the taf period.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. non-
vfr possible in scattered showers thursday through saturday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the area will keep fairly calm marine
conditions across lake erie through at least wednesday. initial
winds for today and tuesday will mainly be from the north at
5-10 knots allowing for waves along the southern lakeshore to be
2 feet or less. on wednesday, the aforementioned high will begin
to shift towards the mid-atlantic coast, marking a notable shift
to southwesterly winds with an increase to 10-15 knots on
wednesday and to 15-20 knots on thursday. given the offshore
flow, waves along the southern shore should remain 2 feet or
less. given the stronger winds, a brief small craft advisory may
be needed on thursday,

late thursday into friday, a strong cold front is expected to
sag southeast across lake erie shifting winds to be more
northerly at 10-15 knots. as the low pushes east, a brief area
of high pressure is expected to build in on saturday, shifting
winds to be from the northeast to 10-20 knots with waves
building to 3 feet or less. will have to monitor the trends in
model guidance for any timing adjustments to the cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
337
fxus63 kiwx 282238
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
638 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather continues through wednesday with
highs in the 70s to around 80.

- rain is expected late thursday into early friday. around an
inch is anticipated for most locations. no severe weather or
significant flooding is expected.

- rain showers may linger into the weekend but confidence is
low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 147 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

another day with a largely persistence forecast as midlevel ridge
and associated surface anticyclone remain locked over the great
lakes. new england upper low finally opens up and lifts toward the
canadian maritimes tomorrow allowing our ridge to drift eastward and
southwest return flow to increase by late in the day. one more
clear/calm night first though with lows in the upper 40s to around
50f. patchy fog is possible once again but crossover temps may be a
little harder to exceed than previous nights. not expecting any
widespread, dense fog but nearly ideal radiational cooling always
raises the possibility for some localized impacts as we have seen
the past two days.

attention then turns to the northern stream pacific jet currently
entering british columbia and the upper low digging through
california. the eastward migration of these two features will drive
our sensible weather through the second half of the week. the
initial cold front still looks to stall to our northwest on wed as
it becomes increasingly divorced from the leading midlevel shortwave
and strong southwest flow develops in the upper midwest downstream
of ejecting upper low. can`t entirely rule out a stray shower in our
far nw wed evening but by and large expect one more day of dry and
pleasant weather with highs near 80f. this front doesn`t really
cross our area until late thu, possibly extending into fri, as we
await the arrival of a secondary, much more potent northern stream
trough. good 850mb theta-e will be pumped into the region ahead of
the southern stream upper low by thu but surface dewpoints are still
only in the low/mid 60s with poor lapse rates aloft yielding very
meager instability profiles. this is especially true if precip holds
off until thu night as is currently trending. some embedded
thunderstorms certainly possible but severe weather is not expected.
marginal instability will aid rain coverage/intensity but without a
strong convective element expect more of a widespread, moderate rain
event. rain amounts around an inch are likely for most with pockets
of 1.5" possible. given recent stretch of dry weather, our area
should be able to tolerate that with minimal impacts. still some
uncertainty with the weekend forecast and whether or not this
frontal boundary completely clears our cwa as remnant upper low/
moisture plume slowly eject eastward. no changes to concensus
initialization here.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 635 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

previous thinking remains intact with no significant flight
issues anticipated. the linger challenge regarding patchy,
shallow ground fog at either site remains uncertain as plenty of
dry air is in place and slightly warmer night/higher dewpoints
may limit development. will once again punt to the next shift to
monitor, but if any issues developed it would be in the 9z to
14z period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
354
fxus63 kdtx 282338
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
738 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into wednesday.

- areas of dense fog expected again tuesday morning.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of the week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.aviation...

high amplitude h3 to h5 ridging will remain in place over the
central great lakes throughout the taf period. forecast data
supports the center of the surface anticyclone will arrive causing
the last of the northerly gradient component to break down.
expecting more in the way of calm and variable winds tuesday
morning. given time of year considerations with late season
evapotranspiration, br and fm remain a possibility. kept with the
inherited mention for tuesday morning. mos is decidedly more bullish
on lifr and ifr visibility restrictions at daybreak. forecasted
environmental profile supports cumulus development at the top of the
boundary layer tuesday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling/visibility at/below 200 ft / 1/2 sm early tuesday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 335 pm edt mon sep 28 2026

discussion...

blocking pattern still in place across the conus with the great
lakes locked under the stacked ridging. local weather stays quiet
through tuesday with the ridge in place but the ridge will begin to
slowly shift eastward as the blocking low off the east coast
releases allowing for a more active mid week stretch.

center of the surface ridge passes over lower mi tonight leading to
another calm and clear night with varying degrees of fog across the
area. any fog will again burn off quickly in the morning as temps
once again rise into the 70s. southwesterly winds return on tuesday
as the center of the high drifts off to the east while the
positively tilted mid/upper level trough folds over the region. this
will allow for a boost in high temps by a couple degrees into the
mid 70s with the added warm advection. 850mb temps should increase
from the current upper single digits, into the mid teens. though
high temps mid week will be tempered by the incoming clouds and
rain, we will see a boost in low temps wednesday night with temps
holding in the mid 60s.

as for the aforementioned clouds and rain, a frontal boundary will
stretch from the broad parent low over central canada down through
the midwest and southward to a cutoff low and surface reflection
over the four corners. the front will stall mid week just to our
west before slowly pushing east of the area thursday night. this
will lead to a long duration light rainfall event with periods of
moderate rain associated with any mid level waves riding up along
the front late wednesday into thursday night. the cutoff low will
absorb remnants of a pacific tropical system adding high moisture
content to the airmass with a strong southwesterly low level jet
ushering some of this moisture into the region. higher rainfall
totals will occur west of se mi, with the front becoming more
progressive once it reaches us which will limit totals somewhat
locally. at this point we`re still looking for around a half inch to
three quarters of an inch of rainfall over the 36-48 hour window.
there remains a low chance of some embedded thunder over the area
mainly thursday when a strong 50 knot low level jet pushes a mid
level wave just south of the area with a theta e plume surging
into se mi which may be enough forcing to allow some convection.

friday we could be dealing with some post frontal stratiform light
rain depending on how fast the incoming surface high can push into
the area. regardless, we are in for a cool weekend as the thermal
trough sets up and sits over the region. high temps will only reach
into the 60s with lows down into the low 40s.

marine...

sprawling high pressure will slowly track through the central great
lakes through tomorrow, leading to light and variable winds mainly
under 15 knots. south to southwest winds will then increase ahead of
the next cold front, which slowly moves through on thursday. with
the warm advection leading to more stable profiles and showers
moving through during this timeframe, wind gusts are expected to top
out only around 25 knots. a better chance to briefly exceed 25 knots
exists behind the front thursday evening/night with cold advection,
as 850 mb temps lower into the mid single digits by friday morning.

another large area of high pressure building in on friday and
saturday will promote light winds for the first half of the weekend.
a stronger low tracking through the northern great lakes for the
second half of the weekend brings another opportunity for winds to
reach or exceed 25 knots over lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...drk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.