Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
977
fxus61 kcle 302329
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 pm edt sun aug 30 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) light, scattered showers are possible this afternoon through late
tonight.

2) excessive heat risk increases monday through wednesday, with peak
impacts on wednesday. max heat indices will be in the mid 90s to low
100s.

3) periodic thunderstorm activity is possible monday night through
friday. there is very low confidence in timing and track of
thunderstorms during this period.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
light showers across the area currently, should quickly
scatter out over the next couple hours as the mid-level
shortwave and associated large-scale forcing for ascent
dissipates.

a low-level jet over lower michigan will fuel continues
moisture advection, which when coupled with the upper-level jet
stream, should provide a more steadier stream of moderate rain
this evening into tonight across parts of northwest
pennsylvania. the latest 12z href has about a 20-30% of >1" of
rain, mainly in erie, pa. flash flooding is not expected there
but certainly enough qpf for some minor, nuisance flooding.

elsewhere, light, scattered showers expected again late tonight
as the next mid-level shortwave (currently over eastern iowa),
moves through.

key message 2...an upper-level ridge gradually builds in from
the southwest through the next couple days. surface high
pressure located to our southeast favors continued southwest
advection of a hot and humid airmass into our forecast area
starting monday and especially tuesday and wednesday when major
heatrisk impacts are expected. while highs are likely to be in
the low 90s on tuesday and wednesday humidity will contribute
to heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.

key message 3...
the excessive heat and humidity this week will also contribute
to building instability to the region, though weak forcing with
a low-amplitude trough to the north makes it difficult to
determine when and where thunderstorms develop. if storms
develop, moderate mid-level flow along the periphery of the
building ridge would favor severe weather, hence a broad day 3
spc marginal risk for tuesday, despite the very low confidence
in thunderstorm evolution. wednesday should be similar before we
get slightly better confidence in storm develop on thursday
ahead an approaching cold front from the north.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
mainly vfr except for a timed batch of showers expected after
06z tonight where tempo 5sm is possible. but the main theme will
be continued isolated showers in the area through the entire taf
period, and because of the low end chances, it makes it
difficult to populate this threat in the taf itself with any
sort of timing or confidence. best to say these isolated shower
chances will continue, but any flight category impact is either
not expected or will be very short-lived. main ceilings will be
around fl100, and expect cumulus development with that monday
during heating. winds stay under 12kts for the most part at the
surface.

outlook...non-vfr possible monday and tuesday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms primarily across far neoh and nwpa. non-vfr
possible in showers and thunderstorms wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
marine weather will be somewhat unsettled and potentially stormy
at times during this week. the main message for the marine
community will be stay alert on the latest forecast and timing
of any storms over the next several days, especially tuesday
through thursday. a warm front is lifting northward across the
lake today and will stall out near or just north of the area
this week with multiple rounds of storms possible. outside of
possible storms to look out for on the lake this week, winds
will generally be from the south or southwest 5 to 15 knots and
waves of 1 to 3 feet. the 10 to 15 knots winds will favor the
midday and afternoon hours this week as well as the open waters.
any organized convection, gust fronts, and outflows from storms
may cause rapid changes in marine weather conditions. no marine
headlines are anticipated this week on the lake at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...26
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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249
fxus63 kiwx 302319
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
719 pm edt sun aug 30 2026

.key messages...

- chances for scattered showers continue into tonight, with
mainly dry conditions to follow monday through wednesday.

- hotter and more humid conditions build through midweek,
peaking tuesday into wednesday when afternoon heat indices
may reach up to near 100 degrees.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt sun aug 30 2026

showers associated with a shortwave and elevated waa will drift off
to the east-southeast by ~19z. another upstream low amplitude,
convectively augmented, shortwave follows east into the lower great
lakes late this afternoon into this evening with additional
showers expected, mainly along/north of us 24.

monday could very well be similar to today with clouds and showers
around as moisture continues to stream in on the northern periphery
of an upper level ridge centered over the southern plains and mid ms
river valley. however, this heat dome will be gradually building
northward which would orient the low level jet core and associated
moisture transport more off to the the north-northwest when compared
to today. opted to introduce some low-end pops far north to account
for the close proximity and latest model guidance. ongoing southerly
flow in the low levels (sfc dewpoints nearing 70f), in combination
with any filtered sunshine, may push afternoon heat indices well
into the 90s otherwise by monday afternoon, best chances across the
southern half of the forecast area.

near advisory level heat/humidity becomes the primary concern into
tuesday and wednesday as the impressive ~596 dam 5h ridge drifts
east over the oh valley. higher confidence in peak pm heat indices
nearing 100f continues to be along and south of the us 30 corridor
each day. northern portions may struggle with convective cloud
debris (thus slightly cooler) from what should be a periodically
stormy pattern north of the area. the nbm continued with its dry
forecast each day, but would not be surprised if at least a low pop
is introduced in the north at some point.

models continue to break down the upper ridging for the second half
of the week which should bring slightly cooler temps and periodic
chances (20-40%) for convection as several shortwaves and a frontal
boundary drop through in developing northwest flow aloft.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 711 pm edt sun aug 30 2026

warm air advection and moisture convergence continues to bring
showers along with a few isolated thunderstorms across northern
in and southern mi. will continue to mention the possibility of
showers for both taf sites from 00z through 04z mon for both
sites but did drop vsbys into mvfr for ksbn during that period.
otherwise, vfr conditions expected through the remainder of the
taf period. southwesterly winds do become breezy after 15z mon
with gusts around 20 kts possible especially for kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 302250
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
650 pm edt sun aug 30 2026

.key messages...

- periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
much of the week, with the highest coverage favored across northern
areas.

- very warm and humid conditions are expected monday through
wednesday, though daily peak temperatures will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation.

&&

.aviation...

the area of weak convection which developed late this afternoon will
be east of the metro detroit terminals by taf issuance. lead edge of
ascent tied to a mid level short wave may brush metro detroit later
this evening, warranting a chance for additional showers in the
metro terminals. regional observations and latest model guidance
suggests low clouds remaining north and west of mbs tonight, leaving
higher based clouds to prevail at the terminals. boundary layer
moisture may however be sufficient to some fog development
overnight, with the cloud canopy limiting the coverage and duration.
while probabilistic guidance indicates a good chance for additional
showers late tonight into monday morning, the array of deterministic
solutions adds some doubt as to the coverage and extent of any
morning precip. given the expected secondary influx of moisture
convergence into the western great lakes overnight, a mention of
light showers will be carried in the terminals at this time.

d21/dtw convection...the presence of instability aloft tonight will
support a low chance (<30 percent) of convection across the airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 307 pm edt sun aug 30 2026

discussion...

a moist airmass is in place over lower michigan, as both 12z dtx/apx
raobs came in with a 5 c dew pt at 700 mb. waves of isentropic
ascent have been supportive of widespread showers. fortunately,
instability is limited, and rainfall amounts have been manageable,
generally in the range of a quarter of an inch (south) to one inch
(north).

an upper level ridge/heat dome over the central plains will drift
northeast, reaching southern illinois by monday evening. the
extension of the ridge axis over the northern mississippi river
valley will subsequently move overhead into the central great lakes
on monday as well. high temperatures will be dependent on how well
the warm front and tonight`s expected showers and thunderstorms
clear southeast michigan monday morning. the north half of the cwa
is favored location, as local probabilistic guidance suggests pops
aoa 70 percent north of m-46.

with 850 mb temps progged to rise into the 20-21 c range monday-
wednesday, max temp potential is certainly aoa 90. however, much
like today, any thick cloud cover and shower/thunder activity during
the day could short-circuit max temps. in addition, the outgoing nbm
surface dew pts appear to be too high (widespread lower 70s), so
advertised heat indices appear too high as well.

the upper-level ridge is already flattened on tuesday over lower
michigan, with westerly flow in place as 500 mb low tracks through
northern ontario. at least moderate instability building up in a
weakly capped environment suggests that there will be some diurnal
activity, especially with any enhanced low level convergence/lake
breeze/marine influence. sufficient bulk shear to support a chance
of severe storms, if in fact storms do go up.

a slight drying out of the deeper moisture in place as we head into
wednesday could support the warmest maxes of the week, per the nbm.
still, confidence is not high, as height falls arrive by wednesday
evening/night and a potentially active baroclinic/frontal zone
develops over southern lower michigan into thursday.

marine...

several days of unsettled weather as a primary low pressure system
over central canada and secondary low over the northern plains send
a series of fronts across the region. periodic showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the fronts while the slightly cooler air
over the waters brings chances of waterspouts with the storms over
the lakes. winds will largely be from the south today with max gusts
around 20 knots. winds turn more southeasterly on monday while
remaining mostly below 20 knots before turning westerly on tuesday.

hydrology...

renewed shower development and possible thunderstorms are expected
tonight into monday morning, mainly north of the i-69 corridor. with
today`s heaviest rainfall falling along m-46 priming the ground,
even a low chance scenario of rainfall totals exceed 1 inch late
tonight into monday morning could cause localized minor flooding of
roads, poor-drainage areas and rises in local rivers. the chance for
additional showers and thunderstorms lingers monday into tuesday.
any isolated to scattered storms on tuesday could become intense and
produce torrential rainfall, leading to localized flooding in poor
drainage areas as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...sf
marine.......drk
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.