Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
151
fxus61 kcle 160500
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1200 am est mon feb 16 2026

.what has changed...
the potential for fog overnight has increased across much of
the area and a dense fog advisory has been issued. the
potential for strong southwesterly wind speeds and gusts on
wednesday has also increased.

&&

.key messages...
1) dense fog and low stratus has developed across the area and
will expand overnight. a dense fog advisory has been issued for
visibility one-quarter of a mile or less through 11 am monday.

2) periods of rain showers expected through the forecast period.
areawide showers accompanied by gusty winds are expected on
wednesday. additional chances of rain/snow mix towards the end of
the week.

3) temperatures warm to above average values through the week,
turning cooler towards next weekend. extended period of above
average temperatures resulting in melting of remaining snow pack and
the possibility of localized ice jams on area rivers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
light winds under building high pressure coupled with saturated low
levels and a melting snow pack has led to areas of dense fog and
low stratus to develop this evening, continuing through monday
morning. latest href guidance shows probabilities of 1/2 mile or
less visibility ranging between 40- 60% across western zones
and up to 80-100% along and east of i-71. a dense fog advisory
has been issued for most of the forecast area until 11 am
monday.

key message 2...
multiple periods of showers will continue through the forecast
period. scattered rain showers this afternoon will exit this evening
as the parent low pressure drifts eastward. the next chance for rain
comes monday night into tuesday as a weak shortwave aloft pushes
across the great lakes region. any slight chance to chance pops will
be confined to northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. qpf will
be negligible.

a more potent low pressure system will glide east across the upper
midwest on wednesday while lifting a warm front northeast across the
local area. the low will push east into the eastern great lakes on
thursday before dragging a cold front east across the local area
thursday night into friday. precipitation ahead of the cold
front will remain as all rain given the warm temperatures aloft
and at the surface behind the warm front. can`t rule out a
rumble of thunder and gusty showers as surface based cape values
rise to the 400-800 j/kg range and a strong llj ~40-45 knots
moves overhead wednesday morning through wednesday afternoon.
initial push of rain showers exits late wednesday night with a
dry window expected through thursday afternoon. chance to likely
pops return thursday night through the weekend. expect p-types
to be a mix of rain/snow as temperatures behind the cold front
on friday night will hover around freezing.

key message 3...
upper level ridge will build across the eastern conus early
this week. persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will lead
to 850mb temperatures rising to +5c to +8c across the region,
roughly the 90th to 95th percentile when compared to
climatology. a prolonged period of above average temperatures is
anticipated beneath this upper level ridge. daily highs in the
low to mid 50s monday and tuesday will top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s by wednesday behind a warm front. for reference,
average temperatures in mid to late february are generally in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

this extended period of above normal temperatures may lead to
localized impacts due to the melting of the existing snow pack and
ice jams. will continue to monitor the potential for ice jams over
the next few days.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
fog and low stratus have developed across the region and will
continue to expand overnight. many locations will fall to ifr
and lifr with dense fog expected at kcak, kyng, and kmfd. there
is less certainty on the extent of lifr conditions north and
west for the remaining terminals. fog and low stratus will be
slow to mix out on monday and may wait until better mixing with
arriving high pressure in the 15-17z range. vfr conditions will
then overtake the region with high pressure building in and
light southwest winds will be favored. some mid-level clouds
will build in from the north, late in the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a sliver of open water has developed just east of the islands
and pulled away from the shore from around vermilion to
cleveland. otherwise, the lake is primarily ice-covered.
variable winds less than 10kts become offshore monday/monday
night increasing to 10-15kts, then back to variable through
tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches and then becomes
stationary near the southern shore of lake erie. winds increase
out of the south to 15-25kts tuesday night, and then back to
southwesterly late wednesday into wednesday night 15-25kts with
another low pressure system moving through the region. low
pressure with a cold front is expected at the end of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...dense fog advisory until 11 am est monday for ohz009>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...dense fog advisory until 11 am est monday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13/sefcovic
aviation...sefcovic
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 160603
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
103 am est mon feb 16 2026

.key messages...

- fog redevelopment tonight, mainly south of highway 30.

- very mild for this time of year for this upcoming week.

- record or near record highs wednesday - well into the 60s.

- antecedently dry conditions to continue; little runoff from
snow melt, very low chances for river flooding through friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 pm est sun feb 15 2026

atmospheric signals are mounting for close to an unprecedented
mild pattern for the middle of february for this upcoming week.
the gfs supports height anomalies reaching +160 meters. several
surges of energy will dive on the back side of an upper level
through wednesday. these impulses will tend to slow and amplify
the approaching lead trof, subsequently amplifying the downstream
ridge over the east conus. highs in the mid to upper 60s by
wednesday will resemble the normal highs for may 1st.

as for high temperatures, unseasonably warm weather will prevail
as forecast 850 mb temperatures rise to +10c by wednesday.
record highs appear to be in play as surface temperatures should
be able to reach the mid and upper 60s. the record for ft wayne
wednesday is 66f. cooler weather will eventually follow as
colder air is able to move southeast and reach the area.

the 12z gfs maintains the antecedently dry pattern with less
than 0.25" of rain for the next 10 days. left a small chance for
low-topped thunderstorms in a small window early wednesday.
strong gusty winds are possible in the mid to highs shear but
low cape environment. at this time, it appears chances for both
flooding and severe weather are remote this upcoming week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1258 am est mon feb 16 2026

areas of fog continue to develop tonight as a low level
anticyclone remains sprawled from southern missouri into central
indiana. valpo univ special soundings last evening nicely
capture a sharpening low level inversion in this setup. this
inversion should help to keep low level winds light and variable
through much of the overnight hours despite some strengthening
of the low level gradient. best chances of dense fog still
appear intact at kfwa after 09z given location of old residual
low level moisture gradient. despite slightly drier low level
air at ksbn, good decoupling and temps crashing through
crossover values will still support fog formation at least
through 10z or 11z before gradient strengthens. fog should
dissipate toward mid morning with vfr conditions this afternoon
into early evening. southwest wind gusts to 15 to 20 knots are
expected before decoupling to 10 knots or less this evening.
some fog may develop again early tuesday morning as a sfc trough
hangs up across the southern great lakes, but this potential
will be addressed with the 12z tafs.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 160457
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1157 pm est sun feb 15 2026

.key messages...

- fog develops again tonight into monday morning with locally dense
fog possible.

- above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

- next chance for precipitation comes tuesday night and wednesday.
all rain is expected with decreasing potential for wintry mix across
the north.

&&

.aviation...

conditions remain favorable for fog development overnight through
daybreak. observational trends suggest widespread mvfr/ifr
visibility restrictions are likely. potential exists for a period of
lifr to emerge at one or more terminals closer to daybreak and will
continue to monitor trends. some lingering pockets of haze with
accompanying mvfr visibility restriction may persist into early
sunday. wind out of the southwest monday ahead of an inbound cold
front. brief increase in lower vfr cloud plausible with the cold
frontal passage late monday. otherwise, simply some thickening high
based cloud for the daylight period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm monday morning.

* low for cigs aob 5000 ft monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 pm est sun feb 15 2026

discussion...

stretch of mild and benign weekend weather continues through the
evening, with current temperature readings approaching 50 degrees
across much of the state. mid-level wave crossing the state at
issuance has little moisture to work with, capable of only pockets
of transient mid/high cloud that will exit this evening. nocturnal
fog potential then returns overnight as clearing skies, relaxed
gradient wind, and a strong persistent inversion set up highly
efficient radiative cooling conditions. upper level cloud then moves
in after midnight or so ahead of the next low to impact the great
lakes monday. timing of this high cloud however is likely too late
to prevent radiation fog from developing. similar to today, locally
dense fog will be possible.

the aforementioned low glances across northern lower michigan monday
afternoon, on the nose of a 120 knot jet streak aloft. the better
dynamics are along the trough axis itself and in the left exit
region of the jet, both focused over northern lower michigan. just a
narrow corridor of moisture develops at the cusp of a 40-45 knot low
level jet monday afternoon to support low pops across the saginaw
valley and thumb regions. temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s
again monday ensure all rain if precipitation does occur. a more
widespread effect of this system will be breezy southwest flow
(gusts to 30 mph) as the low level jet works through.

trend toward a warmer and more active pattern is expected for the
mid-week period. this all begins over the next 24 hours as two west
coast systems attempt to phase over california. messy interference
pattern emerges, establishing strong diffluence aloft within the mid
and upper level geopotential height fields. ~140 knot upper level
jet expands from the desert southwest into the ohio valley by mid-
week, with low pressure attempting to surge along with it before
getting anchored over the upper midwest by the diffluent flow field.
this ultimately leads to quick occlusion of the low as return flow
advects moisture into the elongated deformation axis that sets up
across the northern tier of conus. se michigan finds itself in the
warm sector portion of this system, on the southern edge of the
elongated precipitation shield. latest guidance continues to favor
the all rain scenario for most of se michigan, with any brief wintry
mix potential holding north of m-46 where temperatures flirt with 32
degrees tuesday evening.

heaviest qpf potential exists invof a secondary surface circulation
that slides across central lower mi mid-day wednesday, clipping the
saginaw valley and thumb. ensemble members reflect this with larger
variance in the upper quartile of 24-hour qpf at mbs (0.5" to 1"
rain), tapering to below a half inch around the ohio border. the
lower amounts to the south are influenced by the arrival of an
elevated mixed layer (eml) that quickly dries out the column. timing
of this feature along with warm front progress will have major
implications on the temperature forecast as well. strong subsidence
from the eml and northward progress of the warm front could mix out
an otherwise strong inversion to boost temperatures into the low 60s
(just shy of upper 60s records). if this inversion is unable to mix
out, looking at another day with temps in the upper 40s.

marine...

light wind persists through tonight within a weak pressure pattern
across the great lakes. a weak trough settles into the area on
monday, causing s to sw wind to increase to around 10 to 15 kt
before diminishing and veering to nw monday night. this system will
bring a slight chance of rain mainly to lake huron. high pressure on
tuesday maintains dry and benign conditions as a frontal boundary
sets up just south of the great lakes. this boundary will serve as a
focus for a stronger low pressure system that moves in from the
northern plains on wednesday, bringing rain, snow, wintry mix, and
gusty easterly winds. a gale watch may be needed for northern lake
huron where ensembles currently highlight the highest potential for
gusts to 35 kt from around daybreak wednesday to early afternoon. a
second low pressure system is likely to track into the great lakes
from the midwest on friday with another round of widespread precip
and gusty easterly wind.

hydrology...

low pressure brings widespread rain to the region tuesday night into
wednesday, with rainfall totals projected to range between a quarter
inch to locally one inch. the highest amounts are forecast across
the saginaw valley and thumb regions, closest to the track of the
surface low. rain will fall on top of a melting snowpack, with
latest snow water equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1".
the combination of rain and snowmelt may lead to rises on area
rivers and ponding.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......tf
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.