Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
786
fxus61 kcle 211147
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
747 am edt sun jun 21 2026

.what has changed...
storm total rainfall amounts continue to trend down across portions
of central ohio. the risk of excessive rainfall has been lowered
to marginal (1 out of 5).

&&

.key messages...
1) a soaking rain with scattered thunderstorms is expected tonight
into monday. rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.25 inches are expected
with locally higher amounts possible.

2) temperatures will be slightly below normal through friday then
trend warmer over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

high pressure over the local area this morning will shift east into
new england tonight. meanwhile surface low pressure ahead of a fast
moving shortwave trough will approach from the west overnight. there
will be considerable dry air to overcome in the low and mid-levels
with isentropic ascent increasing from west to east this evening.
precipitation trends over the last 48 hours are favoring the
heaviest rain of an inch or more across northern portions of the
forecast area. robust convection is expected to develop this
afternoon in the warm sector across illinois and indiana, with storm
motion to the southeast heading into tonight. this is expected to
result in lower precipitation amounts across central ohio than
previously thought over the last couple days. forecast amounts in
the southern counties look closer to a half to three quarters of an
inch now as some of the moisture transport into the region is cut-
off.

elevated convection remains possible late sunday night into monday
morning and we will monitor rainfall rates in this moist
environment. the overall concern for heavy rainfall and flooding with
this system has trended down though. the rain looks most
persistent across the north late sunday night before a mid-level
dry slot arrives on monday morning. despite the drying aloft,
scattered to numerous showers are expected to fill back in on
monday afternoon as the cold front wraps in from the northwest.
cape of 500-700 j/kg is expected in our southeastern counties so
thunderstorm activity may increase along the front during the
afternoon.

in addition to the rain, gusty northeast winds will be focused
downwind of lake erie on the western and central basin. gust near
the lakeshore will be 30-35 mph at times. temperatures will be
impacted by the cooler and damp conditions with highs only reaching
the low 70s on monday.

key message 2...

the overall longwave pattern shows a quasi-zonal flow with troughs
moving southeast through the great lakes region through friday. this
pattern will keep temperatures on the cool side of normal for most
of the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
thursday afternoon and evening. models all depict the ridge
starting to amplify aloft for next weekend with temperatures
trending warmer.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr continues this morning, but mid-level clouds will gradually
increase from southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening
ahead of a warm front as low pressure moves out of the mid
mississippi valley. this will lower cigs and cause them to
become broken to overcast at 5 to 7 thousand feet by tonight.
rain will eventually overspread all terminals from west to east
tonight, with conditions gradually falling to mvfr and ifr. went
conservative on visibilities at this point because most of the
rain will be light tonight, but could see ifr vis in pockets of
heavier rain

light w to nw winds this morning will turn n to nw at 5-10 knots
this afternoon then e at 5-10 knots tonight.

outlook...non-vfr likely monday with rain showers. non-vfr
possible again in rain showers wednesday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
light n to nw winds are expected early this morning increasing
to 5-10 knots this afternoon as high pressure gradually slides
into the eastern great lakes to allow low pressure to approach
from the mid mississippi valley tonight. winds will turn e this
evening ahead of the warm front extending east from this low,
and the e winds are expected to become quite strong in the 15-25
knots range late tonight and early monday, especially in the
western and central basins. this will build wave heights to 3-5
feet. as the low passes across northern ohio monday, winds will
quickly turn ne behind the trailing cold front, staying in the
15-20 knot range. small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements will be needed late tonight and monday for at least
the western and central basins for winds, waves, and rip
currents. light winds are expected tuesday through wednesday as
high pressure builds down across the great lakes before turning
s to sw ahead of the next low and associated cold front thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from late tonight through monday
afternoon for ohz003-007-009.
beach hazards statement from monday morning through monday
afternoon for ohz010>012.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 4 am to 5 pm edt monday for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory from 8 am to 5 pm edt monday for
lez145>147.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
724
fxus63 kiwx 211731
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
131 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain is expected this evening and overnight. most
locations will see around an inch with pockets of two inches
or more possible.

- high waves and dangerous currents are expected on lake
michigan beaches monday afternoon into monday night.

- the rest of the week will feature slightly below normal
temperatures and periodic chances for light rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

a low pressure system currently centered over missouri will
continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening,
spreading rain across the forecast area. there was previously
some marginal concern for severe storms south of us-24, but
this has since been pulled farther south given the evolution of
the mcs over southern illinois. while embedded thunder can still
be expected this evening due to weak instability and good bulk
shear exceeding 50 kts, the main story will be moderate to heavy
rain. precipitable water will approach 2 inches, especially to
the south. therefore, 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible across
much of the area. however, uncertainty in convective evolution
and overall modest ingredients continue to preclude a flood
watch here. most of our area missed out on heavy rain wed night
and we should be able to handle a widespread 1" event, even with
pockets of around 2".

scattered, light rain showers likely persist through most of
the day monday as a secondary shortwave moves through the
region, and northerly flow will likely keep highs in the low
70s. we will then see a gradual warmup through the remainder of
the week due to zonal flow aloft. a front will move through
wednesday night/thursday with more showers and thunderstorms,
followed by another wet weather disturbance saturday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1205 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

a mid level shortwave and associated elevated frontal zone will
bring widespread rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder late
this afternoon into tonight. latest nbm/hrrr/lamp guidance
suggest flight conditions primarily lowering into mvfr this
evening, with ifr later tonight at mainly kfwa given closer
proximity to the near surface portion of the frontal
circulation. ksbn likely dries out with a mvfr stratocu deck
lingering into the morning hours tomorrow (after 11-12z), while
this occurs more toward the midday hours at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
392
fxus63 kdtx 211701
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
101 pm edt sun jun 21 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with increasing clouds today.

- showers and thunderstorms increase coverage tonight, especially
south of i-69 where rainfall totals range from 0.5 to 1 inch. the
best chance of locally higher amounts is toward the ohio border.

- showers linger monday morning then dry weather follows in the
afternoon and evening.

- cooler than normal temperatures continue through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

field of small scale cumulus has developed across much of the
southeast michigan airspace. coverage is greatest across the
detroit airspace where weak convergence funneled by the influence of
lakes st clair and erie have pooled more near surface moisture to
act upon. the mixing process will introduce enough dry air in the
cloud layer to limit expansion and will start to degrade the cloud
integrity through the balance of the afternoon. winds will remain
light through the daylight hours.

rain with embedded convective elements will overspread the area
start around sunset. the greatest coverage and intensity will be
across the detroit airspace - peaking in the 8-12z time window. mvfr
ceilings will cruise in after midnight with a window of ifr (aside
from mbs) with the peak rainfall rates. otherwise, east/northeast
flow will establish tonight and persist through monday - with
occasional gusts to 20 knots.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance of thunderstorms tonight
within a more widespread area of showers. these will be elevated in
nature making briefly heavy rainfall the primary hazard.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today. high tonight and
most of monday.

* moderate for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 am edt sun jun 21 2026

discussion...

early morning satellite and surface analysis indicate patchy fog and
stratus leading up to sunrise, especially toward the tri cities and
thumb where wet ground augments surface based moisture. the fog
component continues to expand through sunrise and then quickly
dissipates. otherwise, the day starts with full sun as broad but
weak high pressure builds from the midwest into lower mi to govern
conditions through today. clouds are on the increase this afternoon
in a combination of high based cumulus and thickening cirrus off the
central plains mcs debris shield. the slightly below normal
temperature theme of recent days continues today as abbreviated
afternoon peak heating leaves highs in the mid 70s.

the inbound cirrus cloud shield this afternoon is a prelude to
increasing coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms across
southern lower mi this evening which continue through the night and
monday morning. this pattern is driven by the central plains low
pressure/mcs combo in progress as the short wave and mesoscale
features migrate into the mid ms and oh valleys tonight. pronounced
mid/upper level circulation noted over sd/ne in wv satellite imagery
early this morning adds confidence to the moisture transport scenario
expected to be the primary driver of showers/elevated storms across
southern lower mi tonight. backed 850-700 mb flow ahead of this short
wave carries moisture and elevated instability into lower mi to fuel
the expanding area of showers/general storms. consensus of
deterministic model qpf holds totals below 1 inch which is now
reflected in the latest nbm run. attention is also given to href pmm
qpf keeping higher end totals around 1.5 inches in play, which is
plausible given the potential for strong mesoscale interactions
between the north flank of the mcv, the short wave, and upper jet
entrance region during the peak of the event around 06z tonight. the
stronger forcing gives showers a chance to reach farther north toward
the tri cities and northern thumb while the bulk of greater rainfall
still occurs south of i-69.

the scenario transitions to a shearing deformation pattern which
keeps showers focused over southern lower mi through monday morning.
this additional rainfall is accounted for in the system total but
produces generally less than an additional 0.25 inch until ending by
early afternoon as the deformation axis moves eastward. the rest of
monday and monday night end up with dry weather as a short wave
ridging moves from the midwest into the great lakes along with
accompanying surface high pressure. the mid/upper level long wave
flow remains low amplitude and progressive through mid week with the
next low pressure system currently projected for wednesday.

marine...

a diffuse area of high pressure will hold across the great lakes
through today, supporting a continuation of lighter winds. a compact
low pressure system will then move through the ohio valley and
southern great lakes tonight into monday morning. rain showers are
expected to be most concentrated across lake erie up to lake st.
clair. elevated northeasterly winds will increase and persist
through the daylight hours monday. the longer onshore fetch on lake
erie will support higher waves by daybreak monday. a small craft
advisory is in effect there for late tonight and monday.

hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms expand over southern lower mi tonight as
an unseasonably strong low pressure system moves from the central
plains through the mid mississippi river valley late sunday and into
the ohio river valley sunday night. widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity develops along the northern periphery of the
low pressure system and may bring locally heavy rainfall to southern
portions of se michigan. while uncertainty exists on the exact
placement, the potential exists for a large area of rainfall amounts
ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch generally south of the i-69 corridor.
there is also a chance for localized totals around 1.5 inches from
about the i-94 corridor to the ohio border. trends will be monitored
for signs of any northward shift on the track of the low pressure
system that would produce a chance for a corresponding northward
shift to higher rainfall totals and the potential for urban
flooding. otherwise, the above mentioned totals limit flooding
potential to ponding of water on roads and similar prone areas until
the rain moves out by monday afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 4 am to 5 pm edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...bt
marine.......am
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.