Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
907
fxus61 kcle 171739
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
139 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

.what has changed...
there are no significant changes with the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight. quiet
weather with high pressure is expected this weekend through
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will build across the region this weekend with
nice fall weather. tonight`s temperatures will be the coldest
dropping down to the lower 30s for most locations south of the
lakeshore. freeze headlines remain in effect tonight for all
locations south of the immediate lakeshore. sunny and cool
weather is expected on sunday with high temps around 60 degrees.
more areas of frost will be likely sunday night into early
monday morning with temps in the lower to middle 30s. the
weather pattern for the week ahead will be quiet and dry, with
seasonably mild temperatures. high pressure will remain in
control over the ohio valley and great lakes region next week.
high temperatures will be generally in the 60s to near 70
degrees. overnight low temps will be in the 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
high pressure will build across the area today, with scattered
lake effect cumulus dissipating later this afternoon. breezy
north to northwest winds, particularly along the lakeshore, will
gradually decrease below 10 knots, becoming light and variable
at times overnight. winds shift south- southwesterly sunday
morning, as high pressure settles east of the region, with
generally clear skies expected. with cool, high pressure in
place, and not hazards expected, sunday will be a great day to
fly.


outlook...high pressure, light winds and high vfr expected
through end of the week.

&&

.marine...
winds will gradually diminish to less than 15 knots by this
afternoon. the winds will shift from the south to southwest 10
to 15 knots tonight through monday as high pressure slides just
south of lake erie. overall light flow 10 knots or less is
expected for much of next week as high pressure remains in
control of our weather pattern.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for ohz003-006>011-
013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for ohz012-089.
pa...freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for paz002-003.
frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...77/27
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
343
fxus63 kiwx 171835
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
235 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

.key messages...

- widespread frost is expected tonight into early sunday
morning. low temperatures for locations along and east of
interstate 69 are expected to reach near freezing. patchy
frost is possible sunday night and monday night.

- an extended period of dry weather is expected to continue
through this work week as temperatures moderate to near normal
or just above normal.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

clear skies and deep layer subsidence are expected to continue
tonight as great lakes/ohio valley remain positioned between
longwave ridging across central conus. an expansive low level
anticyclone from mo to the western pa will allow for winds to
quickly decouple this evening. the extent of temperatures drops
tonight is still a bit uncertain as low level thermal trough is
departing to the east this evening and will continue to
moderate. this should be overcome by ideal radiational cooling
condition this evening. some weak southwest flow on back side
of the sfc high is possible across western great lakes later
tonight, but this should not have a dramatic impact on
temperatures. previous forecast still appears on track with best
chance of mins at or just below freezing roughly along and east
of interstate 69, with generally mid 30s elsewhere. frost
advisories and freeze warnings remain in effect for tonight into
early sunday morning.

the primary storm track sunday into monday will remain across
central canada as broad longwave trough remains anchored across
northern tier of conus. some upstream height rises across upper
midwest following departure of central canadian short wave will
allow for sfc anticyclone to be reinforced across
southern/western great lakes early week. this could result in a
lower end patchy frost potential sunday night and monday night
as strong decoupling should compensate for slightly modifying
low level/near sfc thermal profiles. for the middle of the week,
a tendency for negative eastern pacific upper height anomaly
should develop which will allow for downstream maintenance of
mean upper level ridging and little change in position of low
level anticyclone. a slow day to day temperature moderation is
expected in this pattern. the much drier airmass will maintain
its grip across the region given stagnant longwave pattern much
of this week, but given temperatures only slightly above normal
and weak winds through the period, significant fire weather
concerns are not expected.

some lower forecast confidence exists for the day 7 to 9 timeframe
with deterministic/ensemble guidance showing larger spread in
eventual eastward ejection of eastern pacific negative height
anomaly. some indications another fropa could be possible late next
weekend/early the following week, but this will depend on how the
eastern pacific energy phases with broader northern stream trough.
a dry forecast has been preserved through this forecast valid
period.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1239 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

high pressure in place for the next few days will promote vfr
conditions, wind less than 10 knots and mainly clear skies.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 3 am edt /2 am cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am cdt/
sunday for inz005-012>015-020-022-103-104-203-204.
freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am edt sunday for inz006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am edt sunday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am edt sunday for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
222
fxus63 kdtx 171952
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
352 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect late tonight for the area generally
south and east of a line from howell to sandusky. this extends to
the ohio border outside of metro detroit.

- a warming trend begins sunday and continues along with dry weather
throughout the week.

&&

.discussion...

a ridge of surface high pressure is providing an outstanding fall
day across se mi as full sun counters slightly below normal
temperatures. afternoon highs in the mid 50s to near 60 lead into
dry and clear conditions with light wind this evening.

another round of frost is expected tonight but with the frost
advisory focus on a target area mainly south of the tri cities and
northern thumb. frost coverage is greatest toward the ohio border
and outside of metro detroit, where the wind drops off under clear
sky closer to the in/oh surface high center. there is more of a
pressure gradient placed toward the tri cities and northern thumb
where sw wind holds in the 5 to 15 mph range. the wind is a
considerable limiting factor for frost in that area late tonight and
early sunday morning.

the sw wind toward the tri cities tonight strengthens across all
areas during sunday. this occurs within the increased pressure
gradient between the ohio valley surface ridge and the next cold
front extending into the upper midwest from the large low pressure
system near hudson bay. the start of a warming trend is the primary
outcome for lower mi reflected in guidance max t around 60 sunday
afternoon and in the mid 60s monday. dry weather is ensured through
the early week period as the midwest front stalls and dissipates
well to our north through tuesday.

a split flow configuration in the larger scale mid/upper level
pattern places the great lakes in a favorable position to build on
the warming trend mid to late week. a progressive northern stream is
positioned well north across canada while a closed low dominates the
ca coast into the 4 corners. the mid level ridge scenario for the
great lakes has higher than normal predictability for dry weather
and above normal temperatures that make a run toward 70 thursday and
friday.

&&

.marine...

high pressure settles across the ohio valley tonight into sunday,
setting up a tight wsw pressure gradient over the great lakes as
deep low pressure tracks from northern saskatchewan toward hudson
bay. wind magnitude over lake huron quickly increases through the
rest of the afternoon, with gusts on the order of 20 to 30 kt. this
continues into sunday with another slight uptick in wind speed
during the day as the core of highest winds aloft passes overhead.
this ushers in a milder, more stable air mass which will prevent the
bulk of higher momentum from mixing to the surface. however, low
probability does exist for gusts to reach 35 kt gales at times
within longer fetch areas near the straits and from saginaw bay into
central lake huron. at this time, confidence is too low for a gale
warning. elsewhere, gusts between 15 and 25 kt will be more common.
the peak in wind is expected between 8am and 4pm sunday with a
coincident uptick in wave heights. wind then begins to subside late
sunday evening as the jet departs and high pressure builds northward
into the great lakes. this brings about more tranquil marine
conditions through early next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1245 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

aviation...

ridge of high pressure over the central great lakes region will
continue to sink southward into the ohio valley through tonight and
sunday. the subsidence and dry air with this ridge will keep skies
clear across most of southeast mi through sunday. as the ridge moves
across se mi and into the ohio valley, light and variable winds
quickly become southwesterly this afternoon and continue into
sunday. a better gradient across the tri cities and flint areas will
keep a noticeably stronger wind overnight and allow for some
gustiness on sunday.

d21/dtw convection...there will be no thunderstorms through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...frost advisory from 3 am to 8 am edt sunday for miz055-062-063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......tf
aviation.....rbp


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.