Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
957
fxus61 kcle 190633
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
233 am edt sun jul 19 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are likely late monday through
tuesday. storms may be strong to severe on tuesday.

2) cooler temperatures and patchy wildfire smoke return today
with a brief warmup expected monday into tuesday. below normal
temperatures return for mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will briefly build over the region today through
much of monday before exiting to the east monday night. the
departure of the high will allow a warm front to lift into a
region as an unseasonably dynamic low pressure system tracks
east to the north of the upper great lakes. a weakening complex
of thunderstorms may move southeast into the area late monday
night into early tuesday morning, which could leave behind
boundaries for additional convection development as a strong
cold front moves into the area during the day and possibly into
tuesday evening. the dynamic wind field will provide plenty of
shear to support organized convection, although there is still
uncertainty in instability given the potential for early day
showers/storms and residual clouds. regardless, there is
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms at some point on
tuesday, although confidence in the timing/placement of strong
storms is still low due to uncertainty in mesoscale features and
the trajectory of monday night`s weakening convection. it`s
possible that the greater severe weather risk will be to the
southeast of the local area.

storms should exit to the east by tuesday night, although
continued upper level troughing could lead to additional lake-
enhanced rain showers into wednesday.

key message 2...
after a period of hot and humid weather, temperatures will be
much more comfortable with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and
dew points in the 50s expected. tonight`s lows will be the
coolest in quite some time with widespread 50s anticipated.
northerly flow will bring some wildfire smoke into the area
today and possibly into tonight. conditions may be a bit hazy at
times, but impacts to visibilities/air quality will not be as
severe as the last several days.

temperatures will warm up by a few degrees monday/tuesday with
humidity returning in the warm sector tuesday. cloud cover and
precipitation may result in cooler temperatures than currently
forecast on tuesday, but as mentioned in the first key message
discussion, there is some uncertainty in precipitation timing
and placement in addition to cloud cover during the day tuesday.
cold air advection behind the strong cold front will cause
temperatures to fall to below normal values wednesday/thursday
with temps gradually recovering starting friday.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
mixed-bag of vfr and mvfr conditions across the taf sites early
this morning, associated with pockets of lower vsbys due to
wildfire haze/smoke. anticipate vsbys to gradually improve to
vfr by mid-morning, though 6sm haze may linger through much of
the day, before largely dissipating by this evening.

winds are generally out of the north behind the cold front, 8 to
10 knots. winds will remain out of the north for much of today,
before becoming light and variable later this evening and
overnight.

outlook...pockets of non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms
monday night through tuesday. some thunderstorms tuesday
afternoon and evening may contain strong wind gusts. residual
non-vfr possible on wednesday on rain showers across the eastern
half of the area.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will continue across lake erie this
afternoon as southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a
cold front. winds will shift towards the north behind the front
later this evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, before diminishing
to less than 10 knots by sunday afternoon. no changes in this this
package with the small craft and beach hazards for the central
basin, and maintain zones west towards the islands, mainly for cold
air advection later this evening and overnight.

on tuesday, rough marine conditions will arrive with southwest winds
of 15 to 25 knots ahead of a cold front. headlines are likely
tuesday through wednesday as winds shift towards the northwest
behind the cold front, around 20 knots.

strong thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across lake erie this
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 8 am edt this morning for
ohz009>012-089.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for
lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...kahn
marine...fz

Fulton and Henry Counties

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405
fxus63 kiwx 190526
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 am edt sun jul 19 2026

.key messages...

- smoke from canadian wildfires will continue to bring periods
of poor air quality and reduced visibility through at least
monday.

- high swim risk conditions are expected along lake mi beaches
in berrien county, mi and la porte county, in this evening
into late tonight. dangerous waves and currents are expected.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms return monday
night into tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1241 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

main focus of forecast remains on arrival of a cold front, set to
bring a round of strong to severe storms this afternoon and early
evening. in the wake of the front, northerly winds which will bring
cooler and less humid air as well a high swim risk for the se lake
michigan beaches.

initiation has occurred a few hours ahead of schedule with a broken
line of non-severe showers and storms from cass county, mi west to
chicago. spc recently issued a mesoscale discussion highlighting
the concerns and trends for the next several hours. to sum it
up, sufficient instability (over 2000 j/kg of sbcape and a
narrow band of around 1000 j/kg of dcape) is already in place to
allow continued organization over the next several hours as
they move sse with primarily a damaging wind threat with the
stronger storms. sufficient low and mid level lapse rates will
allow for hail production, but freezing levels aoa 15,000 ft may
lead to increased wet microburst potential with embedded
smaller hail. movement will be somewhat faster than yesterday,
but pwats above 1.75" will allow for some isolated hydro
concerns, especially in isolated areas that received 2 to 7
inches of rain over the past 24 hours. maintaining a period of
high likely pops along and ahead of the front.

the front will clear the area this evening with increasing nw winds
to bring a peak to dangerous swim conditions for all beaches along
se lake michigan. beach hazard statements remain in effect into
sunday. winds will shift more ne with time and slowly reduce the
risk sunday night.

cooler and slightly less humid conditions arrive behind the front as
the heat dome shifts west and we end up in a nw flow aloft which
persists through the remainder of the period. as is often the case
with these nw flow setups, one or more convective complexes are
likely to develop upstream and may move across portions of the
region. the main potential right now look to reside with a stronger
trough arriving later monday into tuesday which will likely bring
some showers and storms and maybe a risk of severe weather,
depending on the timing of the feature.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 122 am edt sun jul 19 2026

mvfr vsbys through about 08z-10z sun due to smoke and haze.
otherwise, vfr conditions expected with light variable to northerly
winds around 5kts through the taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
beach hazards statement until 4 am cdt early this morning for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz078>081-
177-277.
beach hazards statement until 5 am edt early this morning for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 190358 cca
afddtx

area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1158 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

.key messages...

- a statewide air quality alert has been issued for sunday as
additional wildfire smoke filters south across michigan.

- benign weather sunday and monday before the next round of showers
and thunderstorms arrives monday night into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

residual post frontal vfr based strato cu will continue to diminish
during the pre dawn hours, with some vfr based strato cu likely to
redevelop late sun morning/afternoon. high pressure will expand
across lower mi sunday, supporting dry conditions and light winds.
while the wildfire smoke plume will remain over se mi through sunday
morning, ongoing post frontal mixing has improved visibilities to
vfr. nighttime boundary layer stability may result in some mvfr
based visibility restrictions in smoke to redevelop during the early
morning, confidence is low. recent hrrr model runs suggest the smoke
gradually exiting se mi during the afternoon sunday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the next
30 hours.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 pm edt sat jul 18 2026

discussion...

today`s cold front has reached northern metro detroit and will
continue to advance southward before exiting the area by early
evening. the bulk of deep convection along the front so far this
afternoon has been east of i-75 where deeper moisture and better
frontal convergence appear to have set up. a severe thunderstorm
watch remains in effect for areas south of the front as we continue
to monitor additional development. wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph will
be the primary threat. based on current trends, suspect we will be
able to end the watch locally before the current 8pm expiration
time. behind the front, breezy northwest wind has pulled down some
of the northern great lakes wildfire smoke plume. this will take
residence through the evening into tonight. current visibility and
aqi observations indicate a lower concentration of pm2.5 than was
seen earlier this week.

weak mid-level height rises allow high pressure to build into the
great lakes on sunday, with northeast flow through much of the day
bringing in a dry air mass with seasonable temps. one or more
additional bands of wildfire smoke will likely work across the area
but available models generally show a decreasing trend in
concentration with time. the high passes into the mid-atlantic on
monday with southwest return flow bringing rising thicknesses and
slightly higher temps. another dry day is forecast as deeper
moisture will hold farther upstream until monday evening. a
shortwave ushers in a plume of deeper moisture along the surface
warm front monday night and brings the next round of showers and
thunderstorms. severe prospects are uncertain given the mainly
nocturnal timing, but some pockets of heavy rain will be possible.
the cold front will lag behind, likely passing through during the
day tuesday. this leaves the door open for some additional
convection tuesday but chances may be hampered by the activity
monday night and tuesday morning.

the upper air pattern shows an amplified trough tracking across
northern ontario and the great lakes tuesday into wednesday. 850mb
temps are modeled to fall to the single digits c by wednesday, which
favors cooler highs in the 70s. deep cyclonic flow and passing
shortwaves aloft bring potential for showers. northwest flow remains
pervasive over the region into the late week as a strong ridge
dominates the western conus - this keeps seasonable temperatures and
lower humidity around locally.

marine...

cold front settles south of the region this evening. a brief period
of gusty post-frontal northwest winds will exist through early
tonight, with an accompanying increase in wave action along the
nearshore waters. this will maintain a period of small craft
conditions lasting into tonight. benign weather conditions with
lighter winds will then exist sunday as high pressure builds across
the area. unsettled conditions may develop again by late monday and
monday night, as a strong low pressure system tracks across ontario.
gusty winds ahead of the attendant front may lead to small craft
advisory conditions monday, particularly across saginaw bay.
potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase during this
time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.