Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
952
fxus61 kcle 042319
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
619 pm est wed nov 4 2026

.what has changed...
winds have trended higher on lake erie thursday.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain will continue across the area this evening, gradually ending
tonight. qpf still looks to average 0.25 to 0.50 inch.

2) a pattern change to cooler weather and showers is expected behind
a front friday into saturday, with the greatest coverage of rain in
ne ohio and nw pa.

3) gradual warming early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
satellite and water vapor loops this afternoon show a mid/upper
closed low over the upper midwest, with a surface low stacked
beneath over northern wisconsin. this is placing an occluded
cold front from lower michigan through western ohio. the front
being so far displaced from the closed low, as well as no true
cold air source, is leading to limited dynamics with this
system. however, a 40-50 knot southwesterly low-level jet is
helping to draw a band of deep moisture into the region to
support fairly steady rain ahead of the frontal boundary. this
rain will continue to be mainly light given the weak dynamics,
but expect it to be persistent through the evening. there should
be a lull after 00z as the deepest moisture plume shifts east,
but expect one more uptick in showers right along the frontal
boundary in the 02-07z period, especially in ne ohio and nw pa.
this has been a consistent signal in rrfs runs. total qpf
through tonight still looks to average 0.25 to 0.50 inch, so no
impacts are expected other than beneficial rain after being dry
for almost a full month.

as the mid/upper low lifts through the northern great lakes
tonight and into northern ontario thursday, a dry slot will wrap
into the region, so expect dry conditions late tonight through
thursday. this will allow for quite a bit of sunshine thursday
and continued mild temperatures, but it will be breezy due to
the relatively tight pressure gradient on the southern edge of
the mid/upper low. expect sw winds to gust to 20-30 knots at
times from late morning through the afternoon as sunshine and
the dry profile leads to deep mixing.

key message 2...
a stronger mid/upper trough and associated closed low remain on
pace to dive through the upper midwest and great lakes thursday
night and friday. this will push a stronger cold front through
the region friday, leading to a more substantial airmass change
to seasonable temperatures friday through the weekend (highs in
the low/mid 50s). moisture return ahead of the front is brief
before the front pinches it off, so even though showers will
gradually push into the region from west to east thursday night
and friday morning, qpf will be very light. coverage of showers
friday will be highest in ne ohio and nw pa where boundary layer
winds shifting to w then nw behind the front and 850 mb temps
dropping to 0 to -3 c will support lake enhancement, so this
will keep showers going through the day in those areas. a
transition to pure lake effect rain showers friday night will
continue through at least saturday morning as nw flow, cold air
advection, and wraparound boundary layer moisture continues.
this will keep showers going across the "snowbelt" areas of ne
ohio and nw pa, especially eastern cuyahoga, lake, geauga,
ashtabula, trumbull, erie, and crawford counties. drier air and
a lowering inversion will finally end the lake effect by
saturday night as high pressure noses in from the mississippi
valley, setting up a dry but seasonably cool sunday.

key message 3...
another cold front will drop through the region sunday
night/monday tied to a mid/upper trough diving through the
eastern great lakes. this could bring a few lake enhanced
showers to ne ohio and nw pa, but very low-impact since the best
forcing will pass to the east. despite this front grazing the
area, temperatures will actually moderate early next week as a
continued split mid/upper flow across the conus floods pacific-
based air eastward, so expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s
monday through wednesday. a stronger trough could possibly bring
cooler air the second half of the week, but there continues to
be no source region for arctic air anytime soon as most of
canada remains under abnormally high mid/upper heights and mild
pacific air.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
mixed-bag of mainly vfr and mvfr with isolated pockets of ifr
ceilings across the taf sites this evening. more widespread ifr
ceilings are expected later this evening and overnight at mainly
mfd/cak/yng, though ifr ceilings could also briefly impact cle. conditions
will gradually improve to mvfr or low-end vfr by thursday
morning and afternoon from west to east behind a cold front.

winds remain elevated out of the south to southeast this
afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
winds will shift towards the southwest behind a cold front
later tonight, 10 to 12 knots. periodic southwest gusts of 20 to
22 knots will return late thursday morning and afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr likely with a cold front and rain showers
friday through saturday.

&&

.marine...
s winds of 15-20 knots on lake erie will turn wsw behind a weak
cold front tonight. wsw winds will then increase to 15-25 knots
thursday morning and continue through the day, so issued small
craft advisories for the entire lake. see those products for
details. wsw winds will decrease to 10-15 knots thursday night,
turning wnw at 15-20 knots behind a cold front friday. we will
have to monitor for small craft conditions again friday night
and saturday when wnw to nw winds may average 15-25 knots,
leading to 3 to 5 foot waves.

winds will gradually decrease saturday night and sunday, but
another period of stronger w winds is possible late sunday into
monday as another cold front brushes the region, so the active
time of year has finally arrived.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am to 4 pm est thursday for
lez142.
small craft advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est thursday for
lez143>145.
small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est thursday for
lez146>148.
small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm est thursday for
lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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015
fxus63 kiwx 042340
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 pm est wed nov 4 2026

.key messages...

- showers tapering off. some lingering drizzle or very light
rain possible into the evening into the overnight. another
front will bring chances for showers thursday afternoon and
evening followed by a period of lake effect rain showers
friday.

- temperatures trending colder in the coming days, with highs
for friday and saturday in the 50s. lows fri and sat night in
the 30s.

- dry with slowly warming temperatures next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm est wed nov 4 2026

initial trough will continue east across the area, taking the
measurable precipitation with it. decent caa will take place in its
wake, with 850mb temps dropping from the teens to +2 to +4 tonight.
cloud cover will limit overall impacts of this, but overnight lows
will still be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than last night (mid to upper
40).

focus thereafter will be on the next, stronger trough which should
be located from ne wi into ne ia at 12z thu. it will be a slow push
se, reaching our nw counties closer to 22 or 23z and then
progressing across the area during the evening. models vary on
amount of precip with this feature but it would seem reasonable
given the amount of forcing and lingering low level moisture to see
some sprinkles or light showers at times in the afternoon then maybe
somewhat better coverage near/along the front. in its wake, even
colder air arrives with 850 mb temps dropping below zero by 12z fri
(coldest nw where values of -2 to -4 c will occur). this, combined
with lake temps in the mid teens will yield sufficient delta ts to
generate a lake response towards 12z fri. ptype still appears to be
all rain (albeit cold), but with air temps fri am being near 40s a
heavier band could tap sufficient air to produce some graupel or a
few snow flakes. the worst of the coverage will likely occur between
12 and 18z with some slow decrease towards 00z and ending thereafter.
highs friday and sat will struggle to reach 50 (a hair below normal
for early nov). overnight lows will dip into the lower 30s with a
freeze possible in some areas saturday night as winds diminish and
skies clear. growing season is over, so no headlines will be issued.

pattern calms down with a slow moderating trend in temps next week
to near or slightly above normal levels. med range models are
struggling with a southern stream wave and its impacts on moisture
return ahead of the next trough mid week. dry forecast is maintained
at this time.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 635 pm est wed nov 4 2026

initial cold frontal passage has coupled with a weak mucape
axis (100-200 j/kg) for some continued scattered showers across
northwest ohio. a dry slot building in behind this front has
caused temporary improvements to vfr for many locations but
would expect mvfr conditions with cigs 2-3k feet to become
prevalent overnight as stronger upper vorticity advection builds
in from the west. this additional forcing and residual shallow
moisture profiles could result in some pockets of drizzle/light
rain into northwest indiana possibly impacting ksbn, and may
need to capture this in future amendments. after a lead upper
trough departs thursday morning, a secondary upper trough and
associated secondary cold front will drop across the region
thursday afternoon and evening with some more scattered rain
showers in ksbn vicinity. mvfr cigs should persist through most
of this period, although likely improving at kfwa for much of
the afternoon tomorrow before this secondary sfc trough brings
in more mvfr cigs.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
097
fxus63 kdtx 042312
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
612 pm est wed nov 4 2026

.key messages...

- chance for drizzle and rain showers this evening.

- briefly drier to start thursday before scattered shower return
late thursday-friday.

- temperatures return to normal values to end the week.

&&

.aviation...

upper level trough of low pressure will now be in place over
southeast michigan throughout the period. surface cold front is
expected to push through all of the area by the first hour after taf
issuance with low level cold advection providing for saturation and
mvfr ceilings. deepening of the cold air with time in the lower
troposphere will lift ceilings heights to vfr by the mid to late
evening. strong midlevel subsidence between 5.0 and 15.0 kft agl
will then end widespread precipitation tonight. wrap around moisture
advection with daytime heating is expected to result in diurnal
shower development thursday afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 335 pm est wed nov 4 2026

discussion...

the occluded low pressure system now centered over northern
wisconsin will continue to progress east-northeast into lake
superior and southern ontario this evening and overnight. this will
allow a cold front to traverse across se mi this evening, with a
broken line of showers likely developing along the boundary. a dry
slot will build in in the wake of the front as shallow boundary
layer mixing commences due to cold air advection. this will bring a
period of dry weather overnight with temperatures falling into the
upper 40s. wrap around moisture from the departing low in
conjunction with subtle moisture advection from lake michigan under
west low-level flow with the broader upper-level trough will renew
rain chances later in the day on thursday and through friday morning.
a passage of a secondary cold front will also provide additional
forcing and will bring in even cooler air with 850 temperatures
dropping down into the negative single digits by friday morning.

a strong upper-level wave will drive south into the great lakes
friday morning before closing off as it progresses into lake erie by
saturday morning. this feature will strengthen cyclonic low to mid-
level flow, bringing rain chances through friday especially across
the tri-cities and thumb where better moisture advection coming off
of lake huron resides. seasonal normal values settle in friday and
saturday. highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s are expected. as the
upper-level wave departs, influence of the thermal trough will
weaken, allowing for a subtle rise in highs through the mid-week
period albeit still more in line with seasonal normals. another
trough will build in across lake huron sunday into monday providing
another chance for rain showers, but otherwise there will be a pretty
muted signal for precipitation chances into the midweek period.

marine...

occluded low pressure system over the western lakes will track
northeast into quebec by thursday morning while pulling a cold front
though the area tonight. lingering stacked upper level and surface
troughs will remain draped across the region keeping a southwesterly
gradient across the area and continued gusty winds. a small craft
advisory is in effect for the thumb shoreline into tonight where
wave heights are forecast to build over 4 feet. lake st. clair, and
western lake erie may see a brief period of gusts in excess of 25 kt
late afternoon so they too have a small craft advisory. deeper
mixing in the wake of a cold front tonight brings southwest wind to
25 kt across saginaw bay thursday so a new small craft advisory has
been issued for the bulk of the day. a stronger cold front then
tracks southward across the region on friday. this brings gusty
north and northeast wind that shifts northwest and weakens by
saturday. additional light rain will accompany this frontal passage.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for lhz441>443.

small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm est thursday for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.