Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
064
fxus61 kcle 062359
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
759 pm edt mon jul 6 2026

.what has changed...
the flood watch has been canceled as the risk for flash
flooding has ended for the area.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
tuesday afternoon.

2) the next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
thursday into friday as a cold front moves across the area.
heavy rain is possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
conditions are expected to slowly improve overnight into
tuesday as high pressure builds into the great lakes region.
still could see some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the oh/pa border tuesday afternoon and
evening, though the overall flooding threat should be lower.

key message 2...
after brief high pressure builds across the region late tuesday
into wednesday, attention then turns towards the next low
pressure system and cold front thursday into friday. confidence
continues to increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop thursday night into friday afternoon, though recent
guidance has suggested a more delayed timing for the cold
front which would also point to a lower risk of stronger storms.
depending on the progression of the cold front, could see
additional showers and thunderstorms develop friday afternoon
and evening across the southern portion of our area. will also
need to monitor the heavy rain potential with this system as
another favorable environment develops towards the end of the
week, characterized by pwats returning to near 1.80 inches.0

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
precipitation has largely exited the area as of 00z, leaving
behind a variable cloud cover and ceiling conditions. ceilings
are mostly vfr with a few pockets of mvfr. ceilings should tend
to deteriorate tonight, especially across the middle portion of
our forecast area, where an area of ifr/lifr ceilings are
expected to occur, along with some patchy fog or br. conditions
will improve back to vfr by tuesday afternoon.

light and variable winds tonight become 5 to 9 knots out of the
north tonight.

outlook...non-vfr with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible tuesday afternoon. scattered thunderstorms are also
possible thursday afternoon through saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
a very slow moving meso-low currently centered over northern
ohio has maintained a northeasterly flow across lake erie this
afternoon. winds of 15-20 knots have resulted in waves of 1-4
feet across the western and central basins. given this continued
flow and increased risk of rip currents, a small craft advisory
and beach hazards statement remain in effect through 10 pm edt.

as the center of this aforementioned low gradually moves east
tuesday, winds will gradually gain a more northerly component
and be sustained at 5-10 knots. this will keep nearshore wave
heights across the central basin 1-3 feet on tuesday. winds on
tuesday night will become light and variable as a high pressure
system builds east and persists through thursday night. on
friday, another cold front is expected to sag south across the
lake, allowing for southwest winds to gradually become
northwesterly friday afternoon. this may allow waves to build to
around 2 feet, but no marine headlines are anticipated at this
time. high pressure returns this weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-007-009>011.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>146.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn/saunders
aviation...saunders
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
132
fxus63 kiwx 062251
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 pm edt mon jul 6 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop this afternoon with greatest coverage (30-50%)
across much of northwest ohio and along and south of us route
24 in northern indiana.

- severe weather is not expected today, but some brief heavy
downpours are possible. the threat of locally heavy rainfall
appears to be less than that of yesterday.

- dry weather tonight through wednesday with additional chances
of showers and thunderstorms thursday into friday.

- there is a moderate swim risk this afternoon and tonight for
southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 139 pm edt mon jul 6 2026

a mid-level trough axis remains over the region today with a
surface low over northern ohio directing moisture across the
local forecast area. significant cloudiness persists over
northwest ohio and northeast indiana where showers and storms
are expected to redevelop this afternoon. surface cape values
are forecast to increase to around 1500 j/kg, but bulk shear
will be weak at only around 10 to 15 kts. therefore, severe
weather is not likely. the mid-level flow is also weak,
which translates to slow storm motion. this, combined with
precipitable water around 1.75 inches, could lead to brief
locally heavy rain. however, not expecting the heavy rainfall
threat to be as significant as yesterday. except perhaps over
northwest ohio downwind of lake erie, due to lake enhanced
convection as a result of very warm water temperatures of 78 to
80 degrees. any lingering isolated/scattered showers should
diminish early this evening as the mid level trough axis finally
sags south of the local area.

clouds may be slow to clear out tonight, especially across the
south and east, and winds will also stay up a little bit in
vicinity of the departing low, which would preclude fog
development in this area. the best chances for any patchy ground
fog will therefore be more northwest, although confidence is
still low. otherwise, dry conditions will return for tuesday
and wednesday as high pressure noses in from the west. northerly
flow will limit highs to the low to mid 80s on tuesday. winds
will shift southerly on wednesday and temperatures will then
rise into the mid to upper 80s.

rain will return thursday with the arrival of a shortwave
trough, followed by another wave on friday. there will probably
be some lingering showers on saturday, with drier conditions
again on sunday and monday. temperatures will be near normal
through this period with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the
mid 60s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 641 pm edt mon jul 6 2026

vfr conditions expected through this taf period. high pressure
will continue to push into the area with drier conditions, light
winds, and mostly sunny skies outside of a few cumulus clouds
on tuesday. any fog potential may be thwarted with the drier air
pushing into the area so confidence continues to be low on this
evolution so did leave any mention out of the forecast at this
time. light northerly winds less than 10 kts expected through
the remainder of this forecast period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
191
fxus63 kdtx 062316
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
716 pm edt mon jul 6 2026

.key messages...

- drier with weak winds tuesday and wednesday as highs lift into the
mid to upper 80s.

- the next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late
wednesday into thursday with temperatures still above normal.

- unsettled weather is possible into friday with a return to near-
normal readings.

&&

.aviation...

a drier low level environment overall will limit cloud production to
a lower coverage of vfr cloud, if any, through early tonight.
existing northeast flow will bring the potential for greater low
level moisture to advect back into portions of southeast michigan
late tonight and into tuesday morning. forecast will continue to
highlight a period of mvfr conditions developing late tonight in a
combination of low stratus and shallow fog for the detroit corridor.
elsewhere, drier air will remain a bigger factor, limiting the
potential. daytime heating will encourage some expansion of mvfr to
low vfr stratocu early in the day, before lifting into a standard
coverage of high based vfr cu for the afternoon. winds holding from
the northeast thru the period.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected in the taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet late tonight. medium tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 pm edt mon jul 6 2026

discussion...

stalled low pressure near the western shores of lake erie continues
to produce a decaying swath of deformation-driven rainfall across
some downriver communities, but latest radar trends show it quickly
dissipating. the low is progged to track southeastward this evening
and overnight as high pressure from the upper midwest builds into
lower michigan. near-normal temperatures tonight with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, perhaps slightly lower near the tri-cities
where skies will be clear longer and dewpoints will be notably lower.

shortwave ridging overhead promotes column subsidence and dry
weather on tuesday. 850 mb temperatures should range from 15c to
17c, leading to highs in the mid 80s for most locations beneath a
patchy diurnal cumulus field. a very low chance exists for pockets
of vertical development, leading to a few brief and isolated
raindrops, although forecast soundings indicate minimal cape. the
surface high pressure influence will limit the sharpness of the
pressure gradient, resulting in weak winds, loosely organized out of
the northeast.

slightly warmer wednesday with fewer clouds and highs above normal,
in the upper 80s. the geopotential height field will eventually
succumb to gradual mid level height falls throughout the day as a
low amplitude trough transits the northern periphery of a four
corners ridge. this wave will phase with northern stream energy,
slowing as it digs across lower michigan. dry weather should remain
intact wednesday as the upstream cold front turns stationary.

showers and thunderstorms become more widespread throughout the day
on thursday as the front draped over wisconsin slowly advances
across southern lower michigan. gulf moisture return will be
underway amidst a weakening anticyclonic southwesterly low-level
jet. mid level lapse rates (700-500 mb) struggle to break above 6.5
c/km limiting uvvs while 0-6 km bulk shear will be marginally
conducive to some organized potential at 20-25 knots. as of now, the
severe threat appears low/isolated, but a sharp rise in pwats poses
a minor heavy rain and wind threat. the front will be slow to work
southeastward; therefore, highs should hold above normal once again.
could be slow to dry out on friday before a speed max tracks across
i-80 and into the ohio valley with more convective potential.

marine...

high pressure to hold across the great lakes today and tomorrow
which will support lighter winds across the region. some localized
stronger winds speeds will be found across the saginaw bay through
tonight given the more favorable northeast fetch with isolated gusts
up to 20 knots. high pressure will wash out across the appalachia
region during the midweek period but the overall pressure gradient
will remain weak over the great lakes, supporting the continuation
of lighter winds. a low pressure system and cold front will move
through thursday into friday, bringing the next chance for active
weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kgk
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.