Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 am edt mon sep 21 2026

.what has changed...
flooding in no longer expected to pose a threat this morning.
lowered high temperatures a degree or two today and wednesday
for areas with showers.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures with occasional showers can be
expected through wednesday.

2) dry conditions will return to end the week and will be
accompanied by the coolest overnight low temperatures so far
this season.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the local area resides between high pressure located north of
the great lakes and low pressure over the ohio valley. shallow
cold advection continues this morning with northeasterly surface
winds. while the heavier area of rain is exiting to the
southeast, scattered showers continue in an arc from near marion
to akron where lift continues along a tightly packed baroclinic
zone at 850mb. this boundary remains in place through the day
and lift is likely to increase through early afternoon as a
shortwave passes aloft. will continue with 60-70% pops today
along this axis with additional rainfall generally around a
quarter inch. dry air continues to filter into northeast
portions of the forecast area where pops will be low or dry
towards the ashtabula/erie lakeshore. a brisk northeasterly flow
will continue off lake erie with lakeshore areas and portions
of northwest ohio seeing winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25+
mph.

will continue with scattered showers into this evening with lift
located to the north of an inverted surface trough that extends
north up the ohio/pennsylvania border. eventually mid-level dry air
arrives and much of the area will be dry on tuesday. low chances of
showers are focused downwind of lake erie in northeast ohio where
good low level convergence and some lake enhancement may maintain
scattered light showers. will also allow for low 20-40 pops in the
east where lift continues along that lingering frontal boundary in
the 850-700mb layer.

beginning late tuesday night and continuing through wednesday pops
ramp up across central and eastern portions of the forecast area as
an upper level trough arrives with a return of deeper moisture. the
00z nam is an outlier with the upper trough a little farther south
and is therefore drier. will lean the forecast towards the better
model agreement which keeps scattered to numerous showers in our
forecast area. with the better coverage of clouds and showers,
lowered high temperatures by a degree or two across our interior
counties where pops are greater than 60%. high temperatures will
remain solidly in the 60s with the cool northeast flow and cloudy
conditions.

key message 2...
the upper level trough moves southeast to the mid-
atlantic on thursday with surface high pressure strengthening across
the eastern great lakes. drier air arrives bringing an end to
precipitation with gradual clearing. the cool and dry airmass will
support the coolest lows we have seen so far this season beginning
on thursday night with inland lows solidly in the 40s with low 40s
for interior portions of nw pennsylvania. this will repeat friday
night before trending just slightly warmer for saturday night. some
of this will depend on winds and ability to decouple but can
certainly expect a chill in the air.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
aviation conditions through this period have trended a bit more
optimistic in recent hi-res guidance. currently much of the area
is experiencing vfr conditions with patchy mvfr where bkn
ceilings have fallen to 2-3kft. these ceilings will likely
bounce around today between vfr and mvfr for all inland
terminals where the chance for persistent showers lingers. given
the uncertainty in the exact timing of these light showers at
terminals, have opted to maintain using tempo/prob30 to handle
the periods of potential rain. near the end of this taf period,
conditions at all terminals should see ceilings lowering to mvfr
heights with isolated pockets of ifr possible.

northeast winds of 5-10 knots this morning will ramp up to 10-15
knots by late morning. gusts of 20-25 knots are possible,
especially for lakeshore terminals and those along the i75
corridor. wind gusts should weaken in intensity and frequency
after sunset tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
elevated northeast winds of 20-30 knots will continue on lake erie
through tuesday night as the local area resides between high
pressure north of the great lakes and low pressure over the ohio
valley. small craft advisories and beach hazards are in effect for
all lake erie nearshore zones and adjacent beach areas through
at least tuesday evening and continuing through wednesday
evening for all ohio waters. waves will tend to be 5-9 feet on
the central basin. although winds will be somewhat strong, there
will also be a chance of waterspouts tonight into tuesday and
possibly again on wednesday near the lake erie islands where
convergence is maximized in the northeast flow.

winds become more easterly on wednesday and decrease to 10-20 knots
wednesday night. winds back to northeasterly again on thursday ahead
of strengthening high pressure and will maintain choppy conditions
in the nearshore waters. winds will remain out of the northeast but
decrease over the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for ohz003-
007-009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through tuesday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez142>148.
small craft advisory until 11 pm edt tuesday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...04
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1233 pm edt mon sep 21 2026

.key messages...

- drier weather ahead the next 7 days, though cannot rule out a few
pockets of light showers and sprinkles today into tuesday.

- below normal temperatures through the end of the week.

- dangerous swimming conditions are expected on southern lake
michigan beaches through early this evening.

&&

.update...
issued at 1059 am edt mon sep 21 2026

split flow across the central/northern plains has led to a
downstream low amplitude flow across the southern great
lakes/ohio valley. mid/upper trough continues to slowly nudge
eastward and will overspread the eastern great lakes this
afternoon. as this occurs some drier mid level air will advect
across the region this afternoon into this evening. low
amplitude nature to the flow will only for only a small
southward sag on low level front today with a potential of some
scattered showers redeveloping this afternoon southeast of us
24, although also may be more in form of drizzle given mid level
drying.

stiff northeast flow has led to waves building into the 3 to 5
foot category at michigan city this morning. a high swim risk
has been issued for northern la porte county through this
afternoon, although is it possible waves approaching 4 feet
could be experienced across portions of sw lower michigan for a
brief time late morning/early afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 237 am edt mon sep 21 2026

overall trend through the week will be for below normal temperatures
and primarily dry conditions within low level east-northeast flow on
the southern fringes of an expansive northern great lakes high
pressure system. still can`t rule out sporadic pockets of light
showers or sprinkles today given lingering column moisture and
another weak mid level disturbance drifting east atop the primary
frontal zone now well south of the area. best chances, 20-40%, for
measurable light rain will generally be south of the us 24 corridor
today. a more pronounced shortwave just entering the northern plains
does shift east over the area tuesday into tuesday night. continued
low level drying will keep any shower/sprinkle activity light and
isolated/scattered at best during this time, with the bulk of the
period dry and cool.

a more notable injection of dry air occurs mid week through the
weekend as an upper level blocking pattern settles in with the local
area generally located in a subsident regime on the backside of a
developing mid atlantic negative height anomaly. more in the way of
sunshine and gradual air mass modification should push highs back
into the low to mid 70s by this weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1231 pm edt mon sep 21 2026

overcast skies persist today and tonight due to caa and gusty
northeastly winds. winds will continue to be sustained around 12
to 15 kts through this evening with gusts as high as 20 to 25
kts, especially at kfwa. winds remain elevated overnight before
becoming gusty again late tomorrow morning. ceilings are
expected to gradually lift overnight into tomorrow morning; ifr
ceilings prevail at kfwa before becoming mvfr by midday
tuesday. closer to lake michigan at ksbn, clouds are expected to
diminish with vfr ceilings through the taf forecast period. dry
conditions are expected area-wide.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1253 pm edt mon sep 21 2026

.key messages...

- extended stretch of seasonably cool conditions will exist into the
middle of the week.

- aside from a low chance of rain early this week near the ohio
border, dry conditions are expected throughout the week.

&&

.aviation...

se mi is firmly in between larger scale pressure systems today which
will be near steady-state tonight through tuesday. a broad area of
strong high pressure is centered over northern ontario while an
equally broad frontal zone extends from the mid atlantic coast,
through the ohio valley, and into the southern plains. this
generates a moderate ne flow of cool air across the great lakes and
a forecast focus on the resulting low cloud pattern this afternoon
and tonight. mvfr ceiling toward dtw borrows some cloud moisture
from the northern fringe of the ohio valley front augmented by lake
erie while more limited coverage toward mbs is more purely driven by
lake huron. both are showing signs of improvement into at least
borderline mvfr/vfr through afternoon peak heating and as boundary
layer growth taps into gusts around 20 knots.

very similar near easterly cloud layer wind holds tonight which
keeps lake erie activated and supplying mvfr stratocu in the
direction of dtw tonight. shorter wind trajectory across southern
lake huron becomes more of a limiting factor for cloud cover at fnt
and mbs tonight and tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast today through
tuesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 am edt mon sep 21 2026

discussion...

southeast michigan will remain positioned between loosely organized
split upper level flow thru the early week period, as a sprawling
1028 mb high pressure system centered to the north maintains a high
degree of influence. this pattern effectively retains east to
northeast low level flow, ensuring a seasonably cool resident
airmass holds firm during this time. 850 mb temperature projected to
dip into the single digits, translating into highs both monday and
tuesday of lower 60s most locations. mainly dry with breezy
conditions as the profile remains dominated by larger scale
subsidence within a generally moisture starved profile. there
remains a lower end rain chance near the ohio border, as shortwave
energy rippling thru the southern stream into the ohio valley may
engage the deeper moisture still lingering near the michigan-ohio
border. diurnal mixing will yield afternoon wind gusts generally in
the 20 to 25 knot range - slightly higher downwind of saginaw bay.

weak upper level system will drift across the ohio valley throughout
the mid-week period. this system will attempt to pull moisture north
and west toward the area tuesday night into wednesday. broader
ascent offered by some degree of deformation may prove sufficient
toward generating some pockets of showers during this time, again
mainly for areas south of the i-94 corridor. otherwise, stretch of
dry and stable conditions lasting through the end of the work week.
lack of meaningful thermal advection as low level flow holds out of
the east-northeast maintains this stretch of below average
temperatures. highs in the 60s with overnight lows dipping into the
mid to upper 40s.

the closed upper level low over the ohio valley is forecast to open
up into a progressive trough and fill as it gets absorbed into the
primary northern stream westerlies by friday. simultaneously, the
expansive surface anticyclone centered over northern ontario/quebec
will slowly shift eastward toward the canadian maritimes. building
upper heights locally will solidify a gradually moderating thermal
profile while maintaining dry and stable background conditions. 850
mb temperatures will ease back toward the 10c range, allowing
readings to work back toward seasonal averages under nearly full
insolation. no rain expected thru the upcoming weekend, as
conditions remains governed by low and mid level ridging.

marine...

the central great lakes reside on the southern fringe of broad
northern ontario high pressure through the first half of this week.
the combination with a lingering stalled frontal boundary over the
ohio valley results in a respectable gradient across the region
maintaining moderate northeasterly winds through tuesday (gusting 20-
25kts with 30kts possible in the saginaw bay). disturbances rippling
along the frontal boundary could offer some sporadic shower chances
over the southern great lakes though influence of high pressure is
expected to keep most of the area dry. westward drift of high
pressure leads to a shift toward more easterly flow wednesday though
with little to no reduction in wind speeds. gales remain unlikely
though onshore flow warrants long duration small craft advisories
for all nearshore waters.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.