Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
332
fxus61 kcle 111956
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
356 pm edt wed mar 11 2026

.what has changed...
severe weather across the area has winded down and moved off to the
east. strong winds will continue across the region ahead of the cold
front passing through this evening. showers and thunderstorms are
likely across the southeastern counties this evening though are not
expected to be severe.

&&

.key messages...
1) thunderstorms possible through the evening, primarily for the
eastern ohio. heavy rain in thunderstorms and training storms
possible.

2) strong winds expected friday with passing low pressure system.

3) active pattern continues through middle of next week with a
series of low pressure systems moving through the region.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
the majority of the severe weather for the area has trended down for
over the past few hours with storms exiting off to the east. for the
remainder of the day, the best instability will be off to the
southeast by late this afternoon and evening timeframe. cape will
still be around 100-300 j/kg from areas east of i-71, low and mid-
level lapse rates will be on the lower side at 5-6 c/km. winds will
be fairly uniform in direction up through the column, though there
is still decent shear as the winds do vary in speed from the surface
to low levels. the main threats for this afternoon/evening will
still be strong winds supported by the previous mentioned strong low-
level flow. given the thunderstorms moving through midday today,
there is uncertainty in the later in the day storms to be able to
produce severe weather as the atmosphere will be fairly worked over
at that point. so anticipate that any severe storms should stay
south and east of the area. regardless, with the cold front moving
in, strong winds will still occur as most locations are currently
gusting over 45 mph across the region.

as far as the heavy rain threat goes, it will be similar to the
severe threat and the heaviest rain will stay to the southeast of
the area. that being said, around 0.50" of qpf is expected in the
southeast counties of the cwa through this evening with the showers
and thunderstorms that will move through. generally, the higher
amounts will be within the thunderstorms and if there is training
across areas as well could cause some nuisance flooding. lower
amounts are expected to the north and west. showers and
thunderstorms should be clear of the area to the east by midnight
tonight with the cold front moving through.

key message #2:
a potent low pressure system will be moving into the great lakes
region thursday night into friday morning. winds in the low-
levels will begin increasing to 50-60 knots at 925mb with warm
air advection by friday morning. precipitation will be minimal
for the most part though will help mix down the winds to the
surface in the afternoon. winds will be gusting up to 60 mph
with the strongest of the gusts being west of the i-71 corridor.
additionally, winds will be gusting in ne oh and nw pa in the
early afternoon along the ridge as winds will be out of the
south to southwest and will be downsloping. a wind advisory will
likely be needed for the areas west of i-71 and in ne oh and nw
pa. winds will begin to subside friday evening as a cold front
passes through and winds back to be out of the west to
northwest.

key message #3:
an active pattern will continue through the middle of next week
as an upper level trough sets up across eastern conus. a series
of low pressure system will move through the great lakes
beginning on friday. for friday, outside of the winds mentioned
in the key message above, precipitation should be minimal though
will begin as a rain/snow mix due to southerly flow and warm air
advection. temperatures will warm above freezing throughout the
day and all precipitation will change over to rain and should
exit the area by friday evening. another low pressure system
will move into the region late saturday night as a warm front
lifts north. precipitation will start off as snow, with some
accumulation possible, then change over to rain as the warm
front moves through. as the cold front moves into the region,
rain will be the primary precipitation type then change over
quickly behind the cold front with much colder air being ushered
in. with this colder air, there is potential for some lingering
lake effect snow showers across ne oh and nw pa sunday night
into tuesday. given the event is several days away, finer
details of impacts and totals remain uncertain.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
the main show of showers and storms has exited to the southeast
early this afternoon with a mix of mostly vfr to higher mvfr
ceilings in their wake. the area remains in the warm sector and
southerly wind gusts to 35 kts are possible. a pre-frontal
trough will push through the airspace this afternoon and evening
allowing for some iso/sct rain chances and a slight wind shift
to the west. the main cold front will sweep through this evening
into tonight, allowing for northwest winds. wind gusts with the
boundaries could get to 30 kts. a mix of mvfr and ifr ceilings
will take over behind the cold front tonight into thursday. high
pressure building into the region on thursday will allow for
ceilings to lift and exit through the late morning and early
afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered rain/snow showers on
friday. gusty west to southwest winds of at least 35 to 40 knots
are expected on friday. non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow
showers saturday night into sunday.

&&

.marine...
a week of active marine weather is expected for lake erie. low
pressure with a cold front will move through the region tonight
and allow for increasing northwest flow over the basin. a small
craft advisory remains for the nearshore waters of lake erie
through thursday for elevated winds and waves. thursday will
have a reprieve with high pressure entering with backing flow.
friday will be the most impactful day of the period with a
strong low pressure system moving through the region and a
stronger cold front crossing the lake. southerly flow will
quickly increase on friday to 30 kts and gale force winds are
possible with the cold frontal passage on friday evening. have
gone ahead and issued the gale watch for the entire lake. high
pressure will quickly enter for saturday and winds will be quick
to subside. another strong low pressure system will target the
region early next week and may have additional strong winds with
elevated waves on the lake. more marine headlines may be needed.

&&

.climate...
daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records march 11th.
here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate sites for
march 11th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt thursday for lez142>144.
gale watch from friday morning through late friday night for
lez142>147-162>167.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt thursday for lez145>149.
gale watch from friday afternoon through late friday night for
lez148-149-168-169.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 111802
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
202 pm edt wed mar 11 2026

.key messages...

- lingering rain showers taper off late this afternoon.

- strong winds expected late thursday night into friday,
possibly gusting in excess of 45 mph at times.

- a storm system brings rain, snow, gusty winds and even a chance
for storms sunday into monday.

- turning much colder early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 202 pm edt wed mar 11 2026

areas of light deformation rain will taper off later this
afternoon into early this evening, possibly ending with snow
northwest (no accumulation) as colder/drier air continues to
funnel in. gusty northwest winds will diminish otherwise tonight
with thursday a cool yet pleasant day with ample sunshine.

a highly dynamic northern stream shortwave with a deepening sub 990
mb low pressure center will track east through the northern great
lakes late thursday night into friday with a rather impressive wind
field. probs from ensemble guidance and the nbm are hinting at the
potential for an advisory wind event, with the operational gfs
suggesting times of warning level winds behind the system cold
front on friday. leading corridor of deep layer isentropic
ascent associated with this system could bring a brief period of
rain/snow mixed later thursday night into early friday morning
otherwise, best chances (60%) north of the mi border.

the next vigorous wave will dig into the northern plains and upper
midwest sunday, and the oh valley and great lakes by monday. leading
waa wing and corridor of isentropic ascent looks to spread
precipitation into the great lakes saturday night into sunday
morning. the bulk of this likely bypasses north of the local area,
potentially clipping areas near and north of the mi border with a
period of rain and snow. the main slug of rain and chances for
embedded thunder arrive later sunday into sunday night as the deep
ascent plume and deepening sfc reflection develops over the great
lakes. windy and sharply colder then on the backside of this system
on monday with scattered snow showers possible, especially near lake
mi.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 129 pm edt wed mar 11 2026

a strong cold front was moving rapidly east and had just passed
fwa at the beginning of the taf period. strong northwest winds
were occurring behind the front over all of far northern indiana.
have included these strong winds in the taf sites with gusts
above 30 knots. a strong pressure gradient will remain over the
area; as a result, winds are not expected to diminish until
late tonight. in addition to the strong winds, showers where
accompanying the front. another area of showers over il was
approaching from the west and will reach the sbn terminal early
in the taf period. given the high expected coverage in the
precipitation, went with categorical rain mixed with snow at
the sbn terminal. otherwise, the ifr/mvfr clouds should
scattered out around or before midnight as strong subsidence
reaches the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 112236
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 pm edt wed mar 11 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snow is likely friday morning, mainly north of m-59.
strong winds in excess of 40 mph are increasingly likely during the
day friday.

- another round of accumulating snow is likely saturday night into
the first part of sunday. thunderstorms are then possible late day
sunday with strong winds late sunday into monday as colder air
arrives.

- much below normal temperatures monday and tuesday with highs near
or below freezing and lows in the teens to potentially single digits.

&&

.aviation...

ongoing post frontal cold air advection will slightly deepen the
mixed layer this evening which will sustain gusty west-northwest
winds. observational trends and latest sounding data indicate gusts
at or above 20 knots through the evening. post frontal dry air
advection is quickly eroding any residual ifr based clouds. this
will leave mvfr clouds to prevail through the evening. a few stray
light snow/rain showers will occur near the start of the taf period.
a notable push of drier air overnight will then warrant a clearing
trend heading into the early morning hours thursday. a gradual drop
in wind speeds/gusts will also occur with this clearing as some
degree of nocturnal boundary layer stabilization will occur.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this evening. low
thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 pm edt wed mar 11 2026

discussion...

morning low pressure is rapidly pushing towards the st lawrence with
its trailing cold front in the process of crossing se mi.
strengthening northwesterly cold advection behind the front causes
temps fall to around freezing for areas north of m-59 by 7-8pm and
eventually for areas south late evening-early tonight. the later
arrival of colder temps in the south keeps light precip all rain or
only a brief rain-snow mix before lingering scattered showers taper
off. however for areas north, scattered rain showers transition to
light rain-snow and eventually all snow by early evening- little if
any accumulation. frontal slope fully clears se mi by late evening
ending precip chances with drier conditions holding through
thursday. core of the thermal trough crosses southern lower mi
daytime thursday as 850mb temps fall to around -10c. despite this,
combination of increasing subsidence and a drier airmass support
clearing skies allowing insolation keeps highs only slightly below
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

next mid-upper shortwave arrives out of the northern plains thursday
night-friday with the surface circulation favored to track over the
straits/northern lower mi. energetic (140+kt) northern stream jet
over the upper midwest supports respectable deepening of the low as
it pushes over the western great lakes early friday. focusing on the
precip side first, deep layer isentropic ascent crosses se mi
between roughly 06-12z friday. temperatures, at least for the first
few hours, hold near/below freezing ranging upper 20s to lower 30s
supporting an all snow start. increasing low level warm advection
brings mid 30s by mid-friday morning transitioning to a melting snow
or rain-snow mix before the cold/occluded front crosses late morning
drawing in a mid-level dry slot. greatest accumulations remain
favored over the northern half of the cwa (along/north of i-69)
where 1-3" of wet snow are possible. for areas south, potential
totals decrease further south you are with areas south of m-59
likely only seeing a dusting to half inch. the other impactful side
of this system are stronger winds. south to southwest winds quickly
ramp up early friday morning as the sharp gradient arrives over the
central great lakes. forecast soundings currently advertise a 55-
65kt llj between 925-875mb within the warm sector friday morning.
while the low is quick to depart to eastern ontario by late day
allowing some reduction in the gradient over southern lower mi, post
occlusion westerly llj winds only progged to fall to 45-50kts. as it
stands, set-up is highly favorable to warrant at least an wind
advisory. low confidence in the few stronger model solutions (like
the 15z rap) that near high wind criteria so there was no
consideration of a watch with this forecast package.

high pressure briefly follows for saturday before the arrival of the
next shortwave ejecting out of the central plains. elevated portions
of the warm frontal slope lift into southern lower mi late saturday
night with isentropic ascent increasing through the morning. main
points of uncertainty for the forecast are the speed that the warm
front lifts through southern lower mi (affecting duration of
snowfall at any location) and how far north the surface warm front
reaches (affecting both the duration snow/wintry mix over the
northern cwa and how far the drier warm sector pushes north). latest
model trends have favored the surface front stalling over the
saginaw bay resulting in the axis of heaviest snow falling over
northern lower mi/up though supports wintry mix/freezing rain
potential for areas north of m-46. this positioning also offers a
shot for a period of dry weather in the afternoon for areas south of
m-46. low center and attendant cold front then cross southern lower
mi sunday evening supporting widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms followed by another period of windier cold advection
into monday.

marine...

northwesterly flow will hold steady through the evening in the wake
of a cold front, which has also acted to improve visibility across
the great lakes from early day marine fog. the favorable fetch
across north and central lake huron along with sufficient mixing
depths that will be boosted from cold air advection will allow for
breezy conditions late tonight and overnight. wind gusts around 30
knots will be likely, with some isolated gust to gales favored
between 2z to 9z. given the brevity and lower potential for gales,
will preclude the issuance of any gale products for the short term.
wind decrease through the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow
as a ridge of high pressure briefly fills in across the region.

attention then quickly turns a clipper low pressure system that
moves in across northern lower michigan and northern lake huron
through friday morning. a very strong pressure gradient will
accompany this seasonably strong low pressure system which will
result in a rapid uptick in sustained winds and gusts, along with
winter weather. given the strength of this system, gust to gales and
even sustained winds to gales are looking very likely and a gale
watch has been issued for all marine forecast zones. additionally,
there will be a window for storm force gusts friday morning and
early afternoon south of the low pressure system. there are still
small deviations as to where storm force gusts will be possible
pending this track of the low, but lake erie to lake st. clair will
be locations to monitor, with additional chances across the saginaw
bay and southern lake huron. this low pressure system exits the area
friday night but will pull in cold air in its wake, sustaining
breezy conditions through early saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from late thursday night through late friday night for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt thursday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt thursday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...gale watch from late thursday night through late friday night for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale watch from late thursday night through late friday night for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.