Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
163
fxus61 kcle 051838
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
238 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

.what has changed...
no major forecast changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) pleasant fall conditions expected to continue through the
weekend. patchy fog possible tonight into early tuesday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a canadian high pressure will linger over the area through
tuesday before a weak cold front begins to push east across the
area late wednesday into thursday. this frontal boundary is not
expected to result in any precipitation. ahead of it on
wednesday, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s
before falling back into the upper 60s to low 70s on friday. low
temperatures will be quite cool, especially tonight into tuesday
morning as amplified radiational cooling results in some areas
dropping into the upper 30s especially in the typical cooler
spots. continue to opt for holding off on a frost advisory given
the expected scattered nature. will continue to monitor
conditions over the next couple hours.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
vfr continues. winds northwesterly gust 15-25kts through 22z,
then below 10kts overnight. tuesday winds southwest less than
10kts, few flat cumulus fl040.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected most of this week.

&&

.marine...
gusty northwest winds across the central and eastern basin of
15-20 knots will continue into tonight, resulting in waves of
3-5 feet pushing into the nearshore. these winds are expected to
persist a bit longer than previously forecast, so the small
craft advisory has been extended until 4z tuesday. as the high
pressure becomes more dominant over the area, winds will weaken
across lake erie to 5-10 knots through tuesday. late tuesday, a
low pressure is expected to move east across canada, ultimately
moving a cold front east late wednesday into thursday. ahead of
this boundary, increased gradient will result in southwest winds
of 20-25 knots tuesday night through wednesday. this will likely
need an additional small craft advisory. as the cold front
pushes east, winds will back to be northwesterly and weaken to
10-15 knots. high pressure returns by the end of the week and
allow variable winds of 5-10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...26
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
950
fxus63 kiwx 051709
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
109 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions are expected through this work week.

- after starting out with slightly below normal high temps,
highs slightly above normal take over for the end of the work
week.

- cold tuesday morning with lows dipping down to the 30s for
some areas north of us-6.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 103 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

surface high pressure moves through tonight and shifts off the east,
tuesday. this opens the door for warm advection to be on our
doorstep. warm advection often pairs with entering cloud cover,
usually of the mid to upper cloud variety. this time, both the rap
and the nam are picking up on 850 mb moisture that remains overhead
for a good portion of the area before some upper moisture pushes
into northwestern areas. if that 850 mb moisture can condense into
clouds, that really becomes a problem for creating frost overnight
tonight because it affects especially those areas that have a chance
to dip down into the upper 30s. chances are at about 15 to 25
percent of less than 38f across parts of st joseph, branch, and
hillsdale counties of mi. if about 3 hours of such
temperatures occurs, frost becomes more possible, but today`s
models came in a little warmer making it less possible. soil
moisture content is lower across the area that could receive the
frost and therefore, could enhance radiational cooling. if
radiational cooling is able to take effect because cloud cover
stays away long enough or altogether and winds slacken enough to
allow decoupling, this frost still occur. it probably stays
more relegated to outlying areas though. at this point, given
the above combination of factors, have held off with any frost
headlines. with the warm advection that ensues tuesday, temps
are forecast to warm through wednesday, when mid to upper 70s
are possible.

a cold front washes out wednesday to thursday and brings high
temps back to the upper 60s and low 70s for thursday and friday.
then, another trough enters the western us and warm advection
brings us back securely into the 70s for saturday with low 80s
possible on sunday. the warm front is producing rain in model
output for friday night/saturday morning, but it appears to be
too dry in our area to see the rain. it`s also interesting to
see that the system in the south that tried to get up to the
area next sunday to provide some rain is staying just south of
the area as the dry air hangs tough. as long as this lasts, it
could be until the following week before we see any appreciable
rain.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1212 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

high pressure will continue to promote vfr conditions, little in
the way of cloud cover, and light winds through the taf cycle.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
615
fxus63 kdtx 051925
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
325 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- frost advisory tonight for areas along and north of i-69.

- seasonably average temperatures return for the midweek period with
little to no rain chances.

- much above normal temperatures possible by next sunday.

&&

.discussion...

confluent flow amidst a rising mid-level height field prolongs a
period of deep subsidence over the region into this evening. mostly
clear skies today have been augmented by shallow lake effect clouds
within breezy northwest cold advection. as the anticylone works in
tonight and early tuesday, winds go nearly calm and the cold
advection ceases. max temps only in the lower 60s this afternoon and
dew points mixing into the 30s will prime temps to quickly fall into
the 40s this evening before settling into the 30s overnight for most
areas away from the metro detroit heat island and immediate
lakeshores. given the expectation for decoupling of the boundary
layer, deep layer dry air, and mostly clear skies, frost formation
will be likely for much of northern se mi early tuesday morning.
highest confidence in this will be along and north of the i-69
corridor where the surface ridge tracks and nbm hourly probabilities
for temps below 37f have jumped to the 70 to 90% range. thin high
cloud still likely to make an appearance before dawn, but shouldn`t
dampen frost prospects much. a frost advisory has been issued in
collaboration with neighboring offices.

notable warm advection commences daytime tuesday as the ridge axis
passes east and milder air is drawn northward by the next wave
passing into northern ontario. system relative isentropic ascent
spreads overhead in waves through the day, but the best dynamics and
moisture advection are displaced well north of the local area.
ensemble space shows potential for a few sprinkles as far south as
the saginaw bay region, otherwise just some passing mid and high
clouds at times as milder air brings highs into the mid to upper 60s.

the system`s cold front is modeled to sink across the area wednesday
afternoon, through an environment that continues to lack deeper
moisture and upper support for ascent. a wedge of higher 1000-850mb
theta-e precedes the front, allowing temps to peak in the lower 70s
before they fall into the 40s behind the front wednesday night.
slightly cooler, but seasonable temperatures dominate the late week
as a broad thermal trough settles over much of the great lakes. some
lake effect showers possible in this pattern, but the bulk are
forecast to hold across the northern lakes. a stronger ridge is
favored to develop over the region this weekend, with a broad
midwest llj advecting much warmer temperatures into the vicinity by
sunday. solution spread remains high in the ensemble space, but
fairly high confidence exists for highs in the 70s and a handful of
ensemble members suggest potential for temperatures in the lower 80s.

&&

.marine...

high pressure currently building in from the western great lakes
drifts over the region tonight through early tuesday promoting
rapidly diminishing winds. influence of said high quickly wanes
daytime tuesday as low pressure slides across northern ontario
resulting in strengthening south-southwest wind locally. typical
uncertainty wrt to thermal stability given active warm advection.
forecast soundings advertise borderline neutral to slightly stable
conditions near the water when the strongest gradient arrives early
tuesday night. a few gusts to gales are possible over the north-
central waters given the favorable long fetch but local
probabilistic guidance continues to downplay a multi-hour period of
gales (<20% chance). running forecast will favor peak gusts in the
low 30kt range with no gale headlines, though small advisories are
likely for the saginaw bay/tip of the thumb. surface cold front
eventually crosses wednesday flipping flow to the northwest with
persistent james bay troughing maintaining moderate gusts (20-30kts)
through thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 159 pm edt mon oct 5 2026

aviation...

low impact aviation weather conditions persist today through tuesday
as surface high pressure provides ample stability, stretching from
the plains across the midwest. meanwhile, a jet streak aloft will
continue to exit toward the eastern great lakes which favors minimal
cloud cover through tonight. vfr conditions prevail with a period of
overnight skc, until the next plume of moisture streams in overhead
during the day tuesday. northwest flow with occasional 15+ knot
afternoon gusts will drop-off this evening as winds trend toward
calm overnight. the surface high centers over appalachia tuesday
leading to southerly wind shift and light speeds (below 10 knots).
some mid and high vfr cloud should be overhead come the midday hours
on tuesday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through tuesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......kdk
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.