Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
378
fxus61 kcle 211132
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
632 am est sat feb 21 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in accumulating lake-enhanced snowfall late this
weekend through monday is increasing. have increase qpf and
resulting snowfall totals. the highest snowfall totals are
likely across the snowbelt regions of ne oh and nw pa, although
there remains uncertainty in the exact placement of the highest
snowfall totals and resulting impacts.

&&

.key messages...
1) near to below normal temperatures and accumulating snow
return this weekend into early next week.

2) warmer temperatures likely arrive for mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
light lake-enhanced snow showers may continue across nw pa
through early morning, but largely anticipate a downward trend
in precipitation over the next several hours.

snow chances increase overnight tonight as an upper low moves
east into the local area. snow should be relatively scattered
through early sunday morning with higher snow chances arriving
with the upper trough axis starting at about 12z sunday morning.
widespread snow is likely across the entire area sunday morning
into sunday afternoon with snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches
likely. persistent upper troughing and northwest flow will
result in continued lake-enhanced snow showers across the area
through at least monday afternoon, including locations across
north-central ohio downwind from upstream great lakes and the
typical snowbelt areas of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania sunday evening. high temperatures will be near
normal on sunday with below normal temperatures likely for
monday and tuesday.

there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement of
snow bands and resulting snow accumulations, but as of now it
appears that the highest snow accumulations of up to 5 to 7
inches between sunday morning and monday night will occur in the
higher terrain of the primary snowbelt region of ne oh/nw pa.
winter weather advisories may be needed for late sunday into
monday, but there is some potential for isolated warning amounts
in areas where bands of heavier snow persist. possible impacts
include slick travel and reduced visibility in periods of
moderate snowfall. impacts should be mitigated by the prolonged
nature of lake effect snow, which will occur over a 24 to 30
hour period. snow showers are expected to dwindle on tuesday.

key message 2...
while there`s still uncertainty in the upper level pattern for
mid to late week, temperatures will likely trend closer to
normal starting wednesday with above normal temps possible by
next weekend. showers may move across the cwa wednesday and
thursday, however there`s still too much uncertainty in the
placement of any synoptic features to determine any potential
impacts. guidance generally favors dry weather for friday.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
mvfr ceilings persist across the region this morning with low
pressure over lake huron. overcast conditions will continue
today with dry weather, as this low opens up into a trough. as
an upper trough and colder air surge into the region this
evening, scattered snow showers are expected to develop and
will spread across all of the terminals. the most impacted
terminals through the taf period will be in ne oh and nw pa with
some lake enhancement allowing for non-vfr visibility and
perhaps a chance at some ifr ceilings. winds through the period
will be westerly, starting at 8 to 15 kts but diminishing to 8
kts or less by this evening.

outlook...periodic snow with non-vfr expected sunday through
tuesday night. periods of snow, mixing with or changing to rain,
and resulting non-vfr are possible this wednesday.

&&

.marine...
weakening low pressure over lake huron will devolve into a
trough today. southwest winds with this feature will diminish
during the day from 15 to 20 kts of flow to 10 kts. the trough
will remain over the area on sunday and monday. meanwhile, a
strong low pressure system will move up the east coast. this
stronger system will enhance the pressure gradient across the
region, while shifting winds to the northwest. winds will ramp
up with the strengthening gradient to 15 to 20 kts on sunday and
20 to 25 kts on monday. this stronger northwest flow will
compress ice along the lake erie shoreline early next week.

a ridge of high pressure will build into the region on tuesday
and winds will back to the southwest and weaken to 10 kts. a low
pressure system will target the great lakes region on wednesday
into thursday and southwest winds will increase over the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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566
fxus63 kiwx 211109
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
609 am est sat feb 21 2026

.key messages...

- snow returns saturday night through monday with 2-4 inches
possible mainly across la porte and northwestern st. joseph
counties in in; and berrien county, mi.

- another system brings light snow to the area tuesday into
tuesday night.

- trending warmer for the end of the work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 am est sat feb 21 2026

today we get a break in the precipitation action at least
through tonight. highs today will range in the mid to upper 30s
with the warmer temperatures mainly south and east of i-69. a
trough slides southeastward from south central canada into the
great lakes area later today bringing synoptic cooling along
with increased chances of light snow across the area into sunday
morning. lows on sunday morning in the lower to mid 20s.highs on
sunday only in the low to mid 30s. a northwesterly flow will
transition to a more northerly flow late sunday morning and we
will begin to see a transition to a more lake effect versus
system snowfall as the trough pushes eastward out of the region.
a shortwave rippling through the flow late sunday into early
monday morning will help to intensify any les snow bands. at
this time there continues to be a bit of uncertainty as to how
organized this les event will get, will this be more of a multi-
band setup over la porte, st. joseph counties in indiana and
southern half of berrien county in michigan where precipitation
amounts/intensities will be less focused or will there be enough
organization for a single band that develops over this area
where more locally heavier amounts will be possible. at this
point seems there may be a little bit of both scenarios where by
sunday night into monday a more transition to a single band
allows for more moderate to even locally heavier snowfall. the
expectation would be around 2 to 4 inches after all is said and
done in the three aforementioned counties with perhaps a few
locally heavier (around 5 inches) would be possible. otherwise,
everywhere else further from lake michigan a range from a trace
to 2 inches seems likely with the more system snowfall.

colder air will spill in with the more northerly flow and lows
monday morning will drop into the low 20s across the area and
highs only will get into the upper 20s to low 30s. a few
remaining light snow showers through most of monday morning
mainly in areas near the lake.

a return to more zonal flow aloft arrives by tuesday which will
allow for a slight warming trend into mid-week. a weak
disturbance moves eastward through the southern great lakes and
brings a chance of light snow showers on tuesday mainly north
of us-30. tuesday highs will range mainly in the 30s across the
area with cooler temperatures further north and warmer to the
south. wednesday highs slightly warmer with highs in the 40s
with even a few 50s possible for locations mainly south of
us-24. wednesday, another weak disturbance pushes eastward
through the westerly flow and brings chances of some light rain
showers across the area into thursday when another cold front
arrives with a trough moving into the region which will
introduce some mixed precip with cooler temperatures temporarily
moving in by thursday afternoon into friday morning. highs on
thursday will range in the low 30s to low 40s from north to
south. lows on friday morning will drop down into the low to mid
20s. however, the colder air gives way to a warming trend with a
return to zonal flow over the central conus. highs on friday and
saturday will warm to the mid 40s to even lower 50s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 605 am est sat feb 21 2026

predominantly mvfr conditions at the taf sites, deteriorating to
ifr later tonight at ksbn (possibly kfwa towards 12z). there may
be a period of vfr conditions this afternoon at kfwa briefly
before conditions return to mvfr/potentially ifr tonight as a
trough moves through. expect generally light westerly flow.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
620
fxus63 kdtx 211053
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
553 am est sat feb 21 2026

.key messages...

- additional light snow showers at times today, mainly north of
i-69.

- snowfall sunday with around an inch on the ground by sunday night.

- highs could struggle to break above the freezing mark monday, and
possibly tuesday, with morning wind chills in the single digits.

- additional opportunities for snowfall tuesday and wednesday before
precipitation changes over to rain with time on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

moist west to southwest flow held south of low pressure stalled over
lake huron will maintain an extensive mvfr stratus deck throughout
this taf period. some variability of ceiling height likely within
the 1500 to 2500 ft range during this time. some intermittent
gustiness to around 20 knots this morning will gradually fade as
overall wind magnitude eases within the mixed layer. light snow
potential will linger for mbs today and early tonight, but
confidence in occurrence remains too low to highlight attm. greater
potential for all southeast michigan terminals starting late tonight
and continuing into sunday. forecast will highlight mvfr visibility
restrictions at this stage, but possibility for ifr conditions to
emerge at one more locations during the morning hours.

for dtw...potential for light snow increases during the early-mid
morning hours sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight through saturday night.

* high for ptype of snow saturday night and sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am est sat feb 21 2026

discussion...

lots of moving parts to contend with over the next 48-60 hours,
starting with an occluded low stalled over lake huron. this has
functioned to reinforce the existing surface pressure gradient,
sustaining blustery zonal winds. it has also provided a link to an
elongated axis of inverted troughing, coincident with a narrow (and
shrinking) corridor of low-level moisture. the convergence zone
extends well into manitoba where a broader upstream circulation
resides. expect continued light snow production into portions of
lower michigan, mainly for the tri-cities and thumb areas. in the
absence of significant geopotential height adjustments, this
periodic light snowfall should linger through most of the day.
accumulation potential appears limited since temperatures rise back
above the freezing mark during the mid-morning hours. for the rest
of the forecast area, drier conditions are favored until a shortwave
trough digging into the subtropical jet reaches the mid-mississippi
valley. coverage of light snowfall broadens in response late tonight
and into sunday morning.

the stationary low eventually exits on sunday as central pressure
fills in to approximately 1015 mb (from 1003 mb at 06z today). cva
supports a period of sustained ascent over the region which leads to
a period of accumulating light snowfall. snowfall totals will be
highly sensitive to surface-layer fluxes. colder air tries to filter
in as flow veers northwesterly, marked by a drop in 850 mb
temperatures to the negative double-digits (celsius). uncertainty
remains regarding the diurnal curve sunday given a sharp e-w thermal
gradient over lower michigan. the colder air should remain over the
western half of the state since the huron low traps the milder
airmass later into the day. this leads to a prolonged period of
temperatures above freezing sunday leading to some degree of melting
that cuts into total accumulations. assuming a frozen surface, most
locations should end up with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snowfall by sunday
evening. however, any well-traveled surfaces will be subject to
melting should highs rise into the mid, if not upper, 30s. elevated
and grassy surfaces, especially those that accumulate a base coating
during the morning hours, possess a higher likelihood for optimal
accumulation efficiency. the aforementioned low gets absorbed into a
nor`easter sunday night while the gradient constricts and cold
advection strengthens. decreasing lake ice and increasing mixing
depths favor a bit of lake effect snow, especially over the thumb.

seasonably chilly monday and tuesday as thermal troughing centers
over the great lakes region. highs could struggle to break above the
freezing mark monday, and possibly tuesday, with morning wind chills
in the single digits. nnw flow lends some lake effect snow potential
off lake huron monday, mainly for huron county. synoptic snowfall
arrives late tuesday after a brief period of ridging. a rapidly
moving embedded northern stream shortwave phases with the southern
jet over the plains tuesday, leading to quick cyclogenesis atop the
upper midwest. the low-levels look to saturate early with weak
ascent, before the upper-level divergence maximizes and saturates
the full column with a jump in uvvs. most of the snowfall should
occur late tuesday night and wednesday morning. potential exists for
precipitation to change over to rain with time on wednesday as
temperatures rise above freezing.

marine...

low pressure remains over lake huron with central pressure
continuing to rise through the morning as the low fills in. cyclonic
flow remains in place, characterized by north-northeast flow across
northern lake huron that becomes increasingly westerly inland and
toward lake erie. the resulting convergence axis will direct lake
effect snow over lake huron through the day, with potential for
intense bursts of snow in banded structures. the low pressure center
gradually eases eastward to merge with a coastal atlantic low
sunday, drawing the convergence axis south while an upper level
disturbance slides across the ohio valley to expand snow chances
south into all marine zones. the great lakes then reside in a
transition zone between the coastal low and building high pressure
over the plains, which boosts sustained northerly winds to 25-30
knots sunday night into monday. this will be the next opportunity
for marine headlines as winds and waves become elevated. very brief
period of high pressure builds in tuesday ahead of the next quick
moving clipper system that arrives mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kgk
marine.......mv

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.