Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
608
fxus61 kcle 021836
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
236 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly seasonable and dry weather is expected through next
week. frost headlines are possible monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a surface cold
front that has exited south of the area this afternoon, with
residual cloud cover lingering across the region. cloud cover is
expected to quickly erode by this evening as an area of high
pressure briefly builds south into the great lakes.

another cold front will move east through the area on sunday, though
precipitation chances should be limited or negligible with a large
area of mid-level dry air in place. behind this front, a stronger
area of canadian high pressure will build south into the region,
ushering in cooler and drier air. the highest confidence for the
most widespread frost threat appears to be monday night into tuesday
morning when the high is directly overhead, resulting in efficient
radiative cooling. the frost potential will continue tuesday night
into wednesday morning, though the area may become more limited and
confined to sheltered areas/inland northwest pennsylvania as warm
air advection gradually increases from the west.

another weak cold front may cross the area by the end of the week,
though the latest guidance suggests this may be another mainly dry
frontal passage with ample mid-level dry air in place.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
for sites that are still ifr/mvfr ceilings, expect quick
improvement over the next 6 hours, and skies eventually going
clear tonight with few-sct cirrus saturday. winds northerly
become northeasterly saturday around 10kts.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.marine...
choppy to rough marine conditions will return across the central and
eastern basin of lake erie this evening and overnight as north winds
increase to near 20 knots. conditions will gradually improve on
saturday into sunday, though remain choppy with north to northeast
winds of 10 to 15 knots. another cold front will cross the lake
sunday night into monday, ushering in north to northwest winds of 15
to 20 knots, and another round of small craft advisories will likely
be needed. winds will become light and variable on tuesday with
high pressure overhead.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
441
fxus63 kiwx 021751
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
151 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

.key messages...

- primarily dry conditions expected for the coming week.

- cool on saturday with highs in the 60s. trending slightly
warmer sunday.

- very crisp tuesday morning with lows in the 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

a cold front continues to slowly slide east this afternoon, with
plenty of its cloud cover lingering at this time. sharp clearing is
noted across northern il which should set the stage for
clearing skies this evening through the night. this loss of
insulation will sent temperatures into the low-to-mid 40s
tonight. despite the clear skies and recent rainfall, a
northeast wind near 5 knots may be just enough to prevent
widespread fog from developing. yet patchy ground fog is
certainly plausible, as is common for october.

high pressure shifts east through the weekend and a low races
through interior ontario as sunday progresses. a trailing (and dry)
cold front drops through sunday afternoon, resulting in a late-day
cooling trend into the 60s downwind of lake michigan. any rain
showers appear confined to central michigan and points north. in the
wake of this front, a reinforcing dose of cold, canadian high
pressure descends over the midwest. centered overhead tuesday
morning, morning lows are on track to be in the mid-to-upper 30s.

this episode of cold air is shortlived as upper-level flow remains
progressive and ridging resumes late-week pushing afternoon highs
into the low-70s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 125 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

strong low level dry air advection has improved conditions at
terminals to vfr this afternoon. could cover will linger for a
few more hours later this afternoon as approach of weak upper
level dampening short wave allows some high clouds to hang on,
along with some vfr cold-advection enhanced cu. skies should
become mainly clear this evening with main forecast question
transitioning to patchy fog potential. recent rain and approach
of broad 1025 mb anticyclone from upper midwest will raise some
concern for patchy fog potential. at this time, expecting that
near sfc will remain just well enough mixed to limit any
significant fog concerns at terminals, with possibility this
could play out as patchy shallow fog scenario for outlying
areas given the background low level dry air advection. vfr
conditions continue through saturday with winds veering more
easterly in response to anticyclone shifting across the great
lakes region.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
702
fxus63 kdtx 021647
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1247 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

.key messages...

- cool tonight with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

- a pleasant weekend with highs in the lower to mid 60s on saturday
and around 70 degrees on sunday.

- a low chance of showers late saturday night into sunday morning
(primarily near saginaw bay).

- dry weather continues early next week, with chilly lows in the 30s
to near 40 possible tuesday morning.

&&

.aviation...

nw flow trailing the early morning cold front is carrying in cooler
air that still has enough moisture for a cumulus field as daytime
instability builds across the region. scattered coverage builds into
a broken ceiling at times which settles into the lower ranges of vfr
mid to late afternoon. these clouds dissipate around sunset leaving
clear sky tonight as midwest high pressure moves over lower mi. model
soundings show little to no fog potential as dry air advection
continues at the surface, although cloud layer wind trajectories have
a lake huron connection that requires monitoring for pockets of
stratocu toward sunrise and during saturday morning.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast tonight or
saturday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and saturday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 308 am edt fri oct 2 2026

discussion...

a fast, progressive flow will persist over the northern conus over
the next week, although a deeper trough does look to develop over
new england on monday.

rain looks to be coming to end by around 8 am, with the 850 mb theta-
e ridge already well southeast of the state. a shortwave trough is
working through the northern great lakes this morning, with an
impressive mid level dry slot arriving, as 700 mb dew pt depressions
reach 30 to 50 c by day`s end.

expansive high pressure builds in tonight, with the center of the
high (1028 mb) parked over northern lower michigan by 12z saturday.
nbm temps on are on the colder side. with this morning`s rainfall
soaking the ground and a lack of strong dry advection near the
surface, surface dew pts are expected to remain solidly above
freezing; thus, no frost is expected. in fact, there is more concern
with northerly flow off lake huron leading to low clouds over the
eastern thumb region, keeping overnight mins elevated above 40
degrees.

slow return flow around the departing high on saturday, but backed
southeast surface flow should keep temps in the low to mid 60s,
slightly below normal.

the next pacific shortwave currently along the southern british
columbia coast on track to move into the central great lake saturday
night, with the cold front moving through on sunday. the greatest
height falls and forcing will be directed toward saginaw bay. euro
ensembles suggests significantly higher pops for the northern half
of the cwa than the dry outgoing nbm pops. nonetheless, gfs does
show the moisture axis (850-700 mb theta-e ridge) getting strung out
and weakening/drying up as it moves through lower michigan.

outside of the low chance pops late saturday night into sunday
morning, dry weather will be the rule early next week as upper level
confluent flow supports another round of good subsidence and strong
high pressure building over lower michigan. this high brings a
better chance for temps to fall into the 30s for tuesday morning.
however, euro ensemble members are mainly indicating mins aoa 40
degrees.

marine...

widespread rain associated with a cold front will exit southeast of
lake erie late this morning. post frontal shallow cold air advection
along the lead edge of expansive high pressure over the northern
plains will result in increasing north-northwest winds today.
available guidance suggests moderate to high probability for wind
gusts of 25 to 30 knots across the open waters of lake huron. this
will also help drive hazardous conditions to small craft across the
lake huron nearshore waters today. the high pressure system will
expand across the great lakes region tonight into saturday,
resulting in light winds. the rapid eastward departure of this high
by sunday will drive another frontal system into the region by the
end of the weekend. this front will be moisture starved and
generally weak, limiting weather conditions to just light rain
chances. its passage will be marked by a veering of the winds from
south to west-northwest. some uptick in the winds is expected over
lake huron within the post frontal cold air advection. available
guidance indicates the winds remaining below gales.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-443.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.