Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
843
fxus61 kcle 050638
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
238 am edt wed aug 5 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes made with this forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers across the eastern part of the area will
become more widespread thursday into the weekend as a slow
moving system pushes east into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure drifts off the east coast today, a weak
disturbance is expected to move north into the ohio valley,
bringing the potential for showers across the far eastern cwa.
these showers should remain isolated to scattered given the
overall weak forcing with the best timing being this afternoon
into the evening hours. at the same time, a cold front will very
slowly be approaching the area from the west. this cold front,
associated with a broad upper level trough and surface low over
northern canada, is expected to become nearly stationary just
west of the cwa which will keep the entire area within the warm
sector of the low for thursday and much of friday. this will
allow for a consistent southwest flow and increased moisture
advection into the ohio valley which will allow for dew point
temperatures to increase into the upper 60s to low 70s. initially
on thursday, the area may be split between widespread showers
and thunderstorms going on to the east and to the west of the
cwa with the greatest chance of showers across the far western
and eastern fringes of the cwa. in any areas that receive
showers, heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible
given the pwat values over 1.5 inches. in addition, the severe
weather potential looks to be minimal on thursday given the weak
environment.

the aforementioned cold front will begin to move across the
area on friday, increasing the likelihood for widespread showers
and thunderstorms across the area. with dewpoints still
lingering in the upper 60s to low 70s and high pwat values,
heavy rainfall will be the primary concern. in addition, very
slow storm motion and general flow parallel to the boundary may
result in training showers and increased flooding concerns in
any areas impacted. overall organized convection seems unlikely
given the overall weak mesoscale environment, but cannot rule
out a few more developed storms given a bit more shear present.
wpc has highlighted the area in an ero due to the heavy rain
potential on friday.

this cold front will gradually shift east of the area saturday
which should allow for a break in precipitation at some point
this weekend. there remains quite a bit of uncertainty about
when that break will occur, but with this update the best chance
is early sunday before another system impacts the area late
sunday. this active pattern is expected to continue into next
week. temperatures throughout the entire period will be near
average with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
moisture will tend to increase from the south across mainly
eastern ohio and nw pennsylvania. scattered clouds of 4-5k may
develop prior to 12z at mfd/cak and could go broken for brief
periods. otherwise the main concern today will be if scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. included thunderstorms in the vicinity
for about a 2 hour window for cak/yng during the late afternoon
where chances are a little higher with a shower possible in the
vicinity of eri around 18z. otherwise sct-brk clouds expected
with southwest winds of 5-8 knots. cle and eri can expect lake
breezes and a wind shift to the north at 18z and 17z
respectively. land breezes will return tonight at cle/eri.

outlook...scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected thursday and friday. lesser coverage of thunderstorms
possible over the weekend.

&&

.marine...
light winds expected to continue on lake erie with lake breezes
in the afternoon today and thursday. southwest winds on friday
will increase to 10-15 knots friday night ahead of a cold front.
occasional veering southwesterly to westerly is possible as the
front lingers in the vicinity of the lake over the weekend.
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region
thursday and continue into early next week. thunderstorms can
result in localized erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 051036
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
636 am edt wed aug 5 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions through late afternoon with seasonable highs in
the 80s.

- chances (30-70 percent) for showers and storms this evening
and persist at times into friday. locally heavy rain is
possible.

- low chances for showers and storms saturday into tuesday (20-40
percent).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 206 am edt wed aug 5 2026

overall upper level pattern is transitioning to a longwave
trough which will settle in for the next several days. a series
of waves will pass through with timing and strength differences
causing challenges on precip chances into at least thursday
night. a weak cold front extended from northern lower mi to
eastern ia. this feature will edge ever so slowly east with each
impulse and a modest llj allowing for areas of storms to
develop and move n and e. the current area of showers and storms
will attempt to edge east over the next several hours, but
should weaken as it outruns the 20 to 30 kt llj as well as
better forcing. a somewhat stronger trough will intersect the
frontal boundary, allowing for a strengthening llj with
redevelopment of convection expected during the day over eastern
ia. the llj and eastern movement of the trough will allow some
chance for this precip to make it into far w/nw areas late this
afternoon and moreso this evening but it will fight to make it
very far east as the front slows further. have attempted to slow
arrival this afternoon and focus highest (likely) pops in w/nw
areas this evening before the overall area likely weakens.
thereafter running with slgt chc to chc pops given the front
slowly edging into the cwa and stalling/washing out with time.
models vary on degree of potential redevelopment during the day
thursday, but with plenty of moisture and limited cape at least
mid to high chc pops warranted with possibility for higher pops
needed depending on overnight convection impacts. high pwats
will bring a threat for heavy rainfall with the greatest
concerns existing where repeated convection occurs.

no sig changes beyond thurs given challenges for overall timing
and impacts from additional waves as the upper level trough
remains in place into early next week. the main focus for
greater heat will remain over the 4 corners area through the
weekend with a somewhat more zonal flow beginning to set up next
week which may allow some of this to move in.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 630 am edt wed aug 5 2026

initial area of showers and storms has either weakened or
remained nw of both sites. additional convection continues to
fester back across ia with a slow eastward transition expected
through the day. confidence still remains on the lower side for
impacts at ksbn and even lower at kfwa. best course of action
for now is status quo with later forecasts hopefully able to
hone in on impacts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 051052
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 am edt wed aug 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and thunderstorms move into the tri cities today,
expanding across the rest of se michigan tonight.

- an unsettled pattern continues thursday into the weekend with
periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.aviation...

a weak cold front extends from the straits to mke and then into the
central plains while supporting broken lines of showers and a few
thunderstorms early this morning. minimal support in forecast data
suggests vfr cloud remnants from this activity are all that make it
to mbs by noon. morning radar trends will be monitored while the
forecast maintains a prob for a new round of showers/storms as
daytime instability builds mid to late afternoon. the front still
only makes it to about mbs by 00z this evening which limits the
reach of new development down toward fnt for the bulk of tonight.
mixed coverage of mvfr ceiling and visibility hold north of ptk
through sunrise. the dtw corridor remains far enough south and east
of the front for vfr ceiling above 5000 ft until the front
approaches during thursday.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast at dtw today through
tonight. there is still a chance a few storms graze the northern
reaches of d-21 tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 340 am edt wed aug 5 2026

discussion...

a cold front is draped from the straits down to the milwaukee
vicinity this morning, orphaned off by parent low pressure quickly
racing across northern quebec. forward momentum carries the front
slowly eastward today, with a few nudges from several weak
shortwaves in the mid-level flow. one of these is passing across
lake michigan this morning, tied to jet entrance region ascent
aloft. shower production has increased along this segment of the
front - this activity mainly targets northern lower mi this morning
but also offers a 20-40% chance for some showers in the saginaw
valley before noon.

thickness advection via southwest flow and lots of insolation bring
an uptick in warmth for most of se mi compared to the past few days.
mid to upper 80s will be common for a high temp. meanwhile, higher
coverage of cloud closer the front should limit temps to the lower
80s in the saginaw valley. there will be a lull in upper forcing
during the day and low-level moisture looks to hold close to the
surface front just upstream, so confidence is relatively low on
development of additional showers in the cwa. afternoon convection
that develops in some cam solutions appear to be tied to a
differential heating boundary in the saginaw valley/i-69 corridor -
this may provide enough of a trigger absent of larger scale forcing
aloft. href and refs ensemble mean sbcape and bulk wind shear on the
order of 500 j/kg and 25 kt respectively would support disorganized
clusters of thunderstorms with little potential for severe weather.
otherwise, lack of low-level moisture and forcing should help keep
much of the area dry and warm today.

better signal for ascent works in late this evening and overnight as
a jet streak rounds the base of the longwave trough upstream, with
its entrance region passing overhead coincident with pva and height
falls between 00z and 09z. the highest pops (50-60%) set up
generally north and west of metro detroit overnight. some
showers/storms may produce localized heavy rainfall. the front
advances farther into se mi daytime thursday, with more favorable
diurnal timing and another mid-level disturbance supporting a 50-60%
pop mainly south and east of a line from owosso to sandusky. similar
instability and wind shear progs will bring potential for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms but limit chances for severe weather. the
front progresses south of the area thursday night with weak high
pressure offering a window for drier conditions. the front is then
shown to drift back northward on friday with another window for
scattered showers and storms.

unsettled conditions look likely to continue into the weekend and
possibly beyond as high pressure settles over the four corners and
low pressure over hudson bay maintains an active northwest flow
pattern into the great lakes. still time to gather details on more
specific windows of higher probability for precip, but this upper
pattern generally holds in place into early and possibly mid next
week.

marine...

a low pressure system slows over hudson bay today, with its extended
attendant cold front approaching the central great lakes from the
west. this provides the first opportunity for showers and a few
thunderstorms this week, as the boundary likely stalls over lake
huron tonight. several disturbances are then expected to ripple over
the boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through thursday. the
front should resume forward progress on friday with additional
chances for convection for the southern waterways. winds are
expected to remain below headline criteria through the rest of the
week. drier weather may briefly return for parts of friday and/or
saturday, but the front will stall out again in the vicinity,
keeping low chances for thunder through the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.