Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 271954
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
354 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

.what has changed...
a wind advisory has been issued for erie county, pa from 11 pm
today to 11 am edt tuesday for se`erly to s`erly downslope
surface winds up to 30 mph, gusting up to 55 mph.

&&

.key messages...
1.) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening through wednesday night. gusty winds are expected in erie
county, pa late this evening into most of tuesday morning,
especially along and within several miles of lake erie.

3.) below-average air temperatures are expected wednesday through
this saturday night with multiple opportunities for frost formation.
a warming trend should begin this sunday, may 3rd.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward the rest of today
through tuesday and is followed by cyclonic sw`erly to w`erly flow
aloft over our cwa. multiple shortwave disturbances embedded in the
cyclonic flow aloft will traverse our region. at the surface, a
primary low downstream of a prominent shortwave trough axis will
deepen as it wobbles nne`ward from the upper ms valley to james bay
the rest of today through sunset tuesday evening. deepening of this
low pressure center at the surface and aloft will contribute to the
development of a s`erly to ssw`erly low-level jet of about 45-55
knots that will translate e`ward over our cwa this evening through
mid-morning on tuesday. in response to the low`s track, a surface
warm front should sweep ne`ward through our region between about 4
am and midday tuesday before a surface cold front begins to sweep
e`ward across our cwa tuesday afternoon and nears the oh/pa line by
sunset tuesday evening. low-level waa ahead of and behind the warm
front will contribute to an unusually-mild night tonight. lows
should reach the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak tuesday.
tuesday`s highs should reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s amidst
persistent low-level waa ahead of the warm front and within the warm
sector, and peeks of sunshine.

showers and thunderstorms:

multiple rounds of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected to traverse our region generally from sw to ne between
about 5 pm today and mid-morning tomorrow as weak cape, including
elevated cape, and moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear allow
ongoing convection over/near il/in late this afternoon to persist
amidst sw`erly mean mid-level flow. additional showers and
thunderstorms should develop over our region late this evening
through tomorrow morning due to moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the warm front and enhanced moist isentropic ascent
associated with the low-level jet amidst the aforementioned
thermodynamics and kinematics. spc has far-western portions of our
cwa included in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging straight-line convective wind gusts this evening
through tonight. however, this risk appears to be very marginal due
to the expectation of weak instability and the development of
sizable dcin via nocturnal cooling-related stabilization of the
boundary layer this evening through daybreak tomorrow. additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late tuesday morning
through sunset tuesday evening courtesy of low-level convergence and
moist ascent along the cold front and pre-front surface trough axes,
which should release weak instability amidst mainly moderate deep
layer bulk shear.

wind advisory:

se`erly to s`erly downslope surface winds up to 30 mph, gusting up
to 55 mph, are expected in erie county, pa late this evening through
mid-morning on tuesday for the following reasons: tightening of the
synoptic mslp gradient in response to the aforementioned deepening
low; low-level winds increasing with height promoting mechanical
mixing of the boundary layer up to ~1kft agl, which should allow the
mixing to tap into the lower-reaches of the aforementioned low-level
jet. note: multiple recent runs of the hrrr suggest the upcoming
convection may be accompanied by a fairly-strong cold pool and wake
low at/near the surface this evening into the predawn hours of
tuesday, and the resulting mesoscale mslp gradient may be tight
enough to generate advisory-criteria wind gusts for several hours
across most of our cwa. will let the evening shift reevaluate the
potential need to expand the wind advisory.

----

during tuesday night through wednesday night, cyclonic sw`erly to
w`erly flow aloft should persist over our region as a primary trough
axis moves from the northern great plains and vicinity to the
central great lakes. at the surface, the cold front should drift
e`ward across the rest of our cwa by daybreak wednesday as a new low
develops ne`ward along the front from the ark-la-tex region to the
mid oh valley. this low should then develop farther ne`ward along
the front and reach southern qc by daybreak thursday as a surface
ridge builds very slowly from sk and vicinity. additional periods of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tuesday night
through wednesday as sufficient instability, including elevated
cape, is released by the following: low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the front; low-level frontogenesis resulting from low-
level waa and caa induced by the frontal cyclone; moist isentropic
ascent preceding shortwave trough axes in the cyclonic flow aloft.
lows should reach the mid 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak
wednesday and be followed by daytime highs only in the 50`s to lower
60`s as net low-level caa occurs behind the cold front. isolated and
lingering rain showers should end generally from west to east
wednesday night as the upper-reaches of the cold front depart and
the aforementioned surface ridge builds generally from the
northwest. partial clearing, easing surface winds, and net low-level
caa should allow lows to reach the mid 30`s to mid 40`s around
daybreak. the coldest lows may be accompanied by patchy frost
formation in the valleys of interior nw pa.

key message 2...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave trough
axes should impact our region on thursday through saturday night as
the aforementioned surface ridge continues to build slowly from the
northern and central great plains, and vicinity. this weather
pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain an
unusually-cold air mass across northern oh and nw pa. daytime
highs should reach mainly the upper 40`s to upper 50`s daily on
thursday through saturday. overnight lows should reach mainly
the lower 30`s to lower 40`s around daybreak friday, saturday,
and sunday, respectively. will continue to monitor the potential
for additional frost formation and the need for a frost
advisory or freeze warning. note: isolated rain showers may
develop during the late morning through early evening hours of
friday and saturday due to self- destructive sunshine and low-
level convergence/moist ascent along subtle surface trough axes
attendant to the shortwave troughs aloft. during the late
morning and early evening hours, the atmospheric column may be
cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix with the rain.

on sunday, the surface ridge should build in earnest from the west
as a shortwave ridge aloft does the same. current odds favor dry
weather courtesy of stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge.
clearer sky and greater daytime heating should allow late afternoon
highs to reach the mid 50`s to mid 60`s.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
vfr across the board this afternoon and early evening. a
weakening batch of rain (and perhaps a little bit of thunder,
especially towards fdy and mfd) will spread west to east across
the area late this evening and overnight. most terminals can
expect up to a few hours of rain with at least some transient
mvfr with heavier rain...brief ifr is not ruled out. the odds of
thunder at a given terminal are still too low for inclusion, but
will monitor trends and adjust as needed if confidence
increases. rain exits east late tonight into early tuesday
morning, with a few lingering lighter showers and likely more
widespread mvfr ceilings ahead of an approaching cold front that
will sweep through late morning through the afternoon tuesday.

south-southeast winds of 10-17kt with a few gusts to 25kt are
expected through early evening. winds, gusts, and wind shear
potential become less clear for several hours later this evening
into the overnight. there`s high confidence in a 45-55kt
southerly low-level jet sweeping east across all terminals
between about 0-9z as surface winds remain south-southeast. it
is on the fence for if low-levels will become stable enough for
true low-level wind shear at times, or if it will remain a bit
more unstable and gusty. tafs carry both llws and some gusts
across the board, either way it will be rough in the low-levels
while taking off and landing. a brief period of stronger south-
southeast wind gusts is possible early tuesday morning behind
the departing rain, especially at eri where gusts over 40kt are
likely for a few hours. winds gradually veer more south-
southwest while remaining a bit elevated and gusty into tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings continue until a cold front sweeps
through on tuesday. non-vfr likely again in showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
south-southeast winds become strong tonight into early tuesday
behind a warm front, with 15-25kt sustained winds expected and
some higher gusts to 35kt possible, especially along the
eastern lakeshore. waves will be largest in the open waters, but
the strong offshore flow can pose a hazard to smaller craft even
in the nearshore. a small craft advisory kicks in at 8 pm this
evening for all nearshore waters. winds shift more west-
southwest on tuesday behind a cold front that will cross the
lake during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours. winds
will be strongest through early tuesday morning, but may be
elevated at times until the cold front clears the lake later
tuesday afternoon. mainly light winds are then expected for the
remainder of the week, though a brief period of elevated 15-20kt
north-northeast winds are possible on wednesday as weak low
pressure tracks through the ohio valley.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt tuesday for
paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt
tuesday for lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 271803
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
203 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- area of rain and embedded storms will move east over the next
several hours. additional storms are possible tonight, but
confidence in the threat of severe storms is somewhat less
than previously forecasted.

- a period of gusty winds is expected in the wake of the
rainfall with gusts of 40 to possibly 50 mph in some
locations.

- temperatures trend cooler the remainder of the week with
highs in the 50s.

- although a chance of rain returns tuesday night into
wednesday, the bulk of the period tuesday through this weekend
appears to be dry.

- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

a large area of stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms was
progressing east across western indiana and eventually points to
the east with all areas seeing a 2 to 4 hour period of rainfall.
severe weather is not expected with this area, as a organized,
elevated line of thunderstorms moves from central il into
central in. behind the precipitation, hrrr and rap continue to
advertise a period of gusty winds courtesy of an increasing
rise/fall pressure couplet from a developing wake low. some
stronger gusts have been noted already in eastern ia and western
il. a wind advisory was recently issued to handle this concern
through 00z tue, with some potential for an eastward (maybe
southward) expansion with time. the couplet seems to move east
and then transition ne, hence the area of the headlines for now.

confidence in a threat for strong to severe storms is on the low
to medium side as cams are struggling to deal with the impacts
of the afternoon convection and subsidence with the wake low.
not ready to dismiss the threat given the wind fields and
overall dynamics in place. the enhanced and moderate risk areas
remain well to our sw where the greatest concerns exist. a
conditional threat for convectively related damaging winds and
maybe a tornado or 2 may exist if storms can develop upstream
and move in. as a result, limited changes to the late
afternoon/early evening period. continue to monitor later
updates. some hydro concerns may exist into tonight if
additional convection does move in, but precip should remain
progressive enough to limit impacts.

once we get past tonight, we trend cooler and for the most part
drier as more of a nw flow aloft sets up with a weak system
maybe bringing some showers to southern areas tuesday night.
concerns do still exist for frost/freeze headlines later this
week, but extended period left untouched for now with focus on
near term threats.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 203 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

a first line of thunderstorms approaches sbn around 18z and brings
the potential for mvfr vis and at least mvfr, but maybe even ifr
cigs. it is also possible that a wake low forms and causes some 30
to 40 kt gusts this afternoon into the evening. this line of storms
reaches fwa around 20 and or 21z with similar flight conditions. the
severity of these storms may be marginally severe with a wind threat
at sbn, but it is possible it could have severe winds by the time it
reaches fwa. models appear to be downgrading any chance for a
potentially stronger area of storms for this evening, but we are
still watching the time frame between 00z and 6z for that. either
way, do expect storms to be out of the area by 6z.

southeast winds become southerly around 6z and then more westerly
tuesday morning. given mixing, synoptic gusts outside of convective
gusts appear to reach 25 to 30 kts today and more like 20 to 25 kts
on tuesday. also have some llws for fwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>008-012-014-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.
small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
tuesday for lmz043-046.
gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...cr

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 271905
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
305 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- a period of wind gusts around 40 mph this evening.

- showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening into early
tomorrow morning.

- much colder air arrives by the end of the work week and holds
through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

the transition from a mild, ridge-dominated pattern to a deep,
unseasonably cold regime remains the primary meteorological focus as
a massive 500mb closed low descends from central canada to stall
over the great lakes by the end of the work week. immediate
attention centers on a robust moisture surge tonight, fueled by a
potent 45-60 kt low-level jet (llj) ahead of a surface low tracking
toward lake superior. this surge will push pwat values above 1.25
inches as an 850-700mb theta-e ridge traverses southeast michigan
around 06z tuesday. despite this moisture, convective potential
tonight will be hampered by the diurnal minimum and a lack of
surface-based instability, likely resulting in a waning trend for
showers and elevated thunderstorms as they move east. this is
supported by latest hrrr and rrfs guidance, a trend further
supported by convection in the ohio valley effectively cutting off
the deeper gulf moisture. rainfall totals are forecast to average
between 0.20 and 0.50 inches, though steepening mid-level lapse
rates could support localized higher amounts in more persistent
elevated cores. the seasonably strong low (993 mb) tracking through
the western great lakes and strong low level jet leads to some
concern winds could reach/exceed 45 mph, as convectively induced
rise/fall pressure couplet approaches, but upstream trajectory
suggests the core strongest winds remain west-northwest of southeast
michigan. weakening of the line and arrival closer to sunset
expected to keep gusts in check, but will continue to monitor.

following a brief period of drier air behind a tuesday morning cold
front, attention shifts to a deepening surface low triggered by a
southern-stream shortwave lifting through the ohio valley tuesday
night into wednesday. while the bulk of this system`s moisture will
remain to our south, favorable forcing and a sharpening deformation
zone should spread rain showers across the southern and eastern cwa
through wednesday afternoon. as this wave exits, the 12z ecmwf and
cmc show high confidence in the large-scale polar trough fully
capturing the great lakes, ushering in a prolonged period of cold air
advection with 850mb temperatures plunging into the mid to upper
single digits below zero celsius by friday. this setup will foster
steep lapse rates and significant lake-induced instability, resulting
in significant cloud cover and "small core" isolated showers of
rain, graupel, and wet snowflakes through saturday. high temperatures
will struggle to reach the lower 50s (10 to 15 degrees below early
may normals). frost/freeze potential during the night time/early
morning hours for the end of the work week and weekend.

&&

.marine...

high pressure influence breaks down today as a cluster of
thunderstorms rolls through the ohio valley. most of the convective
activity associated with the mesoscale system will wane prior to
reaching the southern waterways, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot
be ruled out this evening. meanwhile, a low pressure system will
track into the northern great lakes later this evening, centered
within a potent/expansive low-level wind field. forecast soundings
across lake huron remain stable to the lake surface, but with flow
in excess of 40 knots within the lowest few hundred feet, opted for
a gale warning for the northern two thirds of lake huron. the period
of gales should be brief given the translation speed of the parent
wave, but latest model trends continue to support minor increases in
confidence for occasional gusts to gales. to further capitalize on
the energetic winds, additional convection is expected ahead of the
system`s warm front which should surge all the way up to the
straits. elevated storms emerge ahead of the surface boundary, and
should augment the stability profiles. small craft advisories remain
in effect for all nearshore waters until tuesday due to elevated
winds/waves. wind gusts could briefly approach gale-force for
saginaw bay and maybe the thumb. the system`s cold front then
crosses through the central great lakes during the day on tuesday,
leading to calmer weather and a shift to northwest flow as high
pressure builds in mid-week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 154 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

aviation...

low pressure tracks from southern minnesota to lake superior
tonight, sending a cold front across the airspace tuesday morning.
strong low level jet (50-60 knots) ahead of the front reaches se
michigan this evening-overnight, but will struggle to overcome the
stable near-surface layer. added low level wind shear to the tafs as
a result, although moistening of the boundary layer may mix gusty
winds to the surface on a more localized basis. the jet draws
moisture northward, bringing waves of shower activity into the
airspace overnight. there is a low chance for isolated/embedded
thunderstorms within this shower activity, but will be limited by
weak instability (under 500 j/kg). southeast winds gradually veer
south tonight before a more abrupt shift to the west occurs with the
frontal passage tuesday morning. the front also scours out low level
moisture, with mvfr ceilings in the morning beginning to scatter out
by early afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...several windows for upstream convection to
approach the area, currently centered on 22z-02z and 03z-06z.
instability will be a limiting factor locally and convection is
expected to exhibit a weakening trend with eastward progression.
llws is expected tonight, although gusty winds may mix to the
surface within any shower or thunderstorm activity.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms tonight between 22z-01z and 03z-06z.

* moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet after midnight, high tuesday
morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 1 am to 8 am edt tuesday for lhz361>363.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt tuesday for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.