Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
335
fxus61 kcle 011129
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
605 am est sun feb 1 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains vastly unchanged with cold temperatures
anticipated through tonight. the confidence in accumulating
snow late this week continues to increase. overall confidence in
accumulations and impacts still remain low.

&&

.key messages...
1) cold weather will continue through tonight with air temperatures
below 20 degrees and overnight lows near to below zero. wind
chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder are expected into
this morning and will allow for continued frostbite and exposure
risks.

2) light snow chances remain possible on monday, which could
produce some marginal travel impacts.

3) there is increasing potential for active winter weather late
next week. accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are
possible, but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an arctic air mass remains in place across the region
characterized by 850mb temperatures in the -10c to -20c range.
ongoing cloud cover will continue to limit radiational cooling
and allow for slightly warmer minimum wind chill values -8 to -12
f early this morning. afternoon high temperatures expected in
the teens today. this will mark the ninth consecutive day where
high temperatures at kcle, and other observing sites, have
remained below 20f.

lows tonight will once again fall into the single digits to
below zero range with minimum wind chills of -5 to -10f. expect
for a reprieve from the prolonged cold with highs "warming" into
the low to mid 20s on monday!

despite the lack of cold weather headlines, the persistent cold
will continue to produce similar impacts on infrastructure,
people, and animals through today at the very least. some
impacts may persist into the work week as temps stay below
freezing.

key message 2...
light snow showers will gradually diminish through daybreak
today as saturated low levels (925-850mb) gradually dry through
this afternoon as high pressure builds overhead.

the next low pressure system will glide east through the great
lakes region monday through tuesday. this system is expected to
bring light snow showers to the local area on monday. some
lingering lake enhanced snow showers will remain possible early
tuesday behind a surface cold front. accumulations should remain
fairly light but may produce a light dusting a roadways given
sub-freezing pavement temperatures. more persistent snow may
also produce brief reductions in visibility.

key message 3...
an area of low pressure is progged to push southeast from the
northern plains into the great lakes region near the end of this
week. guidance continues to suggest widespread snowfall and a
return of cold weather with current nbm probabilities of 4 or
more inches of snowfall across eastern forecast zones gradually
increasing from run-to-run. some uncertainty remains in the
exact track and evolution of the system therefore impacting
overall snowfall amounts and timing of greatest impacts.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
at the surface, a ridge continues to affect our region as the
ridge axis moves from near western lower mi and the il/in border
to western ny and the upper oh valley by 12z/mon. accordingly,
our regional surface winds will back gradually from nw`erly to
sw`erly while remaining around 5 to 10 knots. mainly dry weather and
vfr visibility are expected through the taf period. isolated to
widespread lake-effect stratocumuli with bases near 1.5kft to 3kft
agl are expected to impact ne oh and nw pa through 12z/mon as mean
low-level flow backs gradually from n`erly toward w`erly. these
stratocumuli may produce periodic light snow with mvfr visibility in
nw pa and vicinity through ~16z/sun. based on expected evolution of
low-level moisture quantity and depth, these low-level clouds should
be most-widespread before ~15z/sun and after ~21z/sun.

outlook...periodic non-vfr due to low clouds and/or snow expected
through this thursday.

&&

.marine...
wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this
thursday. primarily n`erly to w`erly winds are forecast on lake erie
today as a ridge builds from the western great lakes. the ridge
begins to exit e`ward tonight through monday, which will cause
w`erly winds to shift to sw`erly. the sw`erly winds veer to w`erly
to nw`erly monday night through tuesday as a weak cold front drifts
e`ward across lake erie. behind the front, mainly w`erly to nw`erly
winds are expected through wednesday night as another ridge builds
from the north-central united states and vicinity. on thursday,
w`erly winds should back to sw`erly as the ridge begins to exit
toward the northeast united states. the continued presence of a cold
air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice
cover on lake erie to expand and thicken further through
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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308
fxus63 kiwx 011110
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
610 am est sun feb 1 2026

.key messages...
- wind chills fall to -10f to -20f this morning. a cold weather
advisory is in effect mainly for areas east of in-15.

- there is a 60 percent chance of greater than a half inch of
snow north of us-6 on monday from a clipper system. slippery
travel is possible for the morning and evening commutes.

- not as cold this week with high temperatures the 20s through
thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 232 am est sun feb 1 2026

given clear skies in many areas, fresh snowpack, and radiational
cooling with shallow low level inversions, it`s not all that
surprising that fog was forming last evening and scattered reduced
visibility has been occurring across the area into this
morning. it is relatively surprising given the negative dew
points and the dryness that indicates, but probably the fresh
snow has provided the needed moisture for such an occurrence. look
out for slick spots where black ice has formed.

moving forward, surface high pressure and mid level ridging
continues to keep the area dry today under mostly sunny skies. also,
850 mb temperatures warming towards -10c as opposed to the -20c that
we`ve been in will help high temperatures to achieve the low to
mid 20s as opposed to staying in the teens that we`ve had.

one can see on the 850 mb theta-e plot that a plume moves into the
area sunday night into monday. this comes into the area in
conjunction with an occluded front. with the warmer temperature
column, the dgz is much higher up now than what we`ve had. nam time
sections mainly across us-30 indicate that the better lift and
moisture is below and just bleeding into the underside of the dgz
which would create some dendrites but also bring in some lower slr
type snow crystals. the other issue is that the dgz dries out to
somewhere around -10 or -11c during the afternoon so that the ptype
could end as a mix of snow and drizzle or just stop. after the
occluded front leaves, there is a weak indication of les/lake
enhancement as well with theta-e lapse rates right around 0, some
low level convergence right around berrien county and some low level
moisture to work with. delta t values are weak with 10 to 15c, but
inversion heights are marginal at around 6 kft.

behind this system, an upper low dives southward toward the northern
great lakes, which opens a path for a shortwave to dive
southeastward from the northern plains and interact with a low
pressure system in the southern plains all in the right entrance
region of an upper jet, which enhances lift. the placement of this
low gets the northern periphery of the precip shield just south
of our southern tier of counties. instead, there looks to be a
boundary diving southward through mi on tuesday and into
wednesday that creates low level moisture, low level
convergence, and there is some theta-e instability to work with
that allows for some lake effect snow to develop. nam bufkit
soundings only show inversion heights up to 3-4 kft up and that
just nicks the dgz. it gets shallower for wednesday at more
like 2-3 kft, but that still may be enough to create some les.

a better chance for dry weather follows for later wednesday through
thursday as surface high pressure moves through.

following this, a clipper-like system dives into the great lakes and
introduces another chance for snow. there are varying temperature
profiles for this time period, but it still appears like most areas
see snow. the handling of the cold air that follows behind this
clipper appears to vary between the ecmwf and the gfs with ecmwf
having glancing blow of slightly warmer air than what we`ve had.
whereas the gfs is more in line with what we`ve had recently and for
a longer period of time.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 610 am est sun feb 1 2026

lake effect stratus plume just west of ksbn is now slowly
moving eastward as low level winds back. guidance still suggests
some mvfr conditions possible as this moisture plume slides east
but have trended later with less impact given how dry the
resident airmass is. maintained some tempo mvfr but additional
amendments are certainly possible. vfr is expected during the
afternoon and evening. the next shortwave arrives late in the
period with another round of light snow and mvfr ceilings.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for
inz006>009-017-018-022>027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for miz080-
081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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226
fxus63 kdtx 010945
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
445 am est sun feb 1 2026

.key messages...

- cold this morning with wind chills ranging between -15f to -5f.

- mostly sunny today with afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 20s
with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

- chance for snow showers monday with expected snow accumulations
under an inch. better accumulation for an inch or greater at the end
of the week.

&&

.aviation...

very dry airmass and a surface ridge in place will lead to clear-
mostly clear skies today into this evening. light westerly winds
(under 10 knots) backing to the southwest late today/early this
evening, ahead of our next weather maker/surface trough which moves
through on monday. mainly just increasing high to mid clouds
tonight, with perhaps mbs seeing flurries before 12z. otherwise, mbs
also looks to be close to the lake michigan lake plume late today
through tonight, and would not totally rule out mvfr ceilings
impacting the airport. much higher confidence in southern tafs
staying ceiling free below 5000 feet through 12z monday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none through 12z monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 am est sun feb 1 2026

discussion...

dry air has allowed for great radiational cooling conditions this
morning resulting in a very cold start to the day. observations have
all of the area down into the single digit low temperatures with
several locations outside of the detroit metro region below zero.
the lighter winds are bringing wind chills in the -5 to -15 degree
range with some localized spots dropping below -15 degrees at times.
a ridge will then cross over the great lakes throughout the day
centering over michigan this afternoon. high pressure with the dry
air will bring mostly clear skies today for most of southeast
michigan. the exception will be along the lake huron shoreline where
north- northwest flow will maintain some lower level moisture for
scattered clouds. the sunny skies and a boost of a few degrees at
850mb temperatures with the ridge should help increase afternoon high
temperatures today into the low-mid 20s. another chilly night is
expected tonight into monday morning, though increasing clouds late
will keep temperatures from falling further. lows tonight should
reach the single digits with minimum winds chills few degrees below
zero.

the increasing clouds will be associated with the arrival of a weak
shortwave trough that will swing through the great lakes monday.
light snowfall will spread west to east from about 6 am and into the
afternoon. forcing with this trough will be weak. add in the lack of
strong moisture advection (specific humidity less than 2 g/kg and
qpf of maybe a hundredth or two) with the dry resident airmass and
overall accumulation potential should be pretty limited. most of the
area will have potential to see a dusting to a tenth or two of
accumulation with a low probability to achieve accumulation of a half
inch by the evening. the passing of the trough will bring a west to
northwest lower level wind shift monday evening into early tuesday
morning offers a period of light lake effects showers/flurries. a
shortwave clips the great lakes on tuesday offering another chance at
lake effect. forecast soundings do point toward saturation with
respect to ice in the lower part of the dgz within the cloud bearing
layer, which would allow for at least flurry potential. will keep
mention out of the forecast for now given the lower confidence as dry
air in the region will persist. daytime highs through the early to
mid week holding mostly in the low to mid 20s with some spots maybe
hitting the upper 20s.

a deeper trough will move in late thursday into friday presenting the
better accumulating snowfall potential for this upcoming week. some
differences in placement of the low pressure exists, which will
ultimately impact the snowfall totals. westerly winds kick in on
thursday afternoon which will bring some potential for lake effect
snow showers into parts of southeast michigan before the better
forcing with pacific moisture arrives thursday evening into friday.
nbm probability to achieve 1 inch or more has trended higher with the
latest run to 70% or greater for much of southeast michigan. another
arctic airmass will follow this system and likely bring another
stretch of lake effect snow later in the day friday and into the
weekend as 850 mb temperatures plunge to -20c or below. this would
bring daytime high temperatures over the weekend in the high single
digits to the teens with wind chills to -10 degrees or below.

marine...

influence of high pressure maintains light (<15kt) winds to close
out the weekend. a weak clipper arrives late day monday but aside
for scattered light snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts with
accompanying winds holding at or below 20kts. another high dropping
out of the upper midwest then follows for midweek bringing quiet
marine weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.