Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
497
fxus61 kcle 071818
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
218 pm edt mon sep 7 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast package.

&&

.key messages...
1) pleasant conditions stick around through tuesday.

2) chance of showers and thunderstorms return wednesday
afternoon through the evening. scattered strong to severe storms
are possible with strong winds and heavy rainfall the primary
hazards.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a dominant upper level ridge will remain over the region through
tuesday allowing for dry and pleasant conditions to continue.
sunny skies today will give way to some high clouds building
across the area tomorrow. high temperatures today will climb
into the mid to upper 70s before warming a bit on tuesday with
increased waa into the low to mid 80s. overnight lows tonight
will drop into the mid to upper 50s before remaining more mild
in the upper 60s to low 70s tuesday night. in addition to
increased waa over the area, a shift to southwest flow ahead of
an approaching cold front will increase dewpoints on tuesday,
resulting in more humid conditions returning to the region.

key message 2...
unsettled weather returns to the area on wednesday as a cold
front associated with a low over canada is expected to push east
across the area. an strengthening llj coupled with favorable
diurnal timing of showers should aid in shower and storm
development across the area wednesday afternoon through the
evening hours. increasing pwat values coupled with a deep warm
layer will also present the potential for locally heavy rainfall
and subsequent isolated flooding concerns. models are still
diverging on the exact timing which would play into the severe
potential, but at this point both spc and wpc maintain a
marginal risk (1 of 5) across much of the area.

aside from the severe potential, winds are expected to be gusty
on wednesday from the southwest with sustained winds of 10-20
mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. areas east of i71 are most
likely to receive these gusty winds. high temperatures for the
week will peak on wednesday as they climb into the mid to upper
80s. overnight lows will linger in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
high pressure across the region will allow for vfr conditions
through the taf period. afternoon, diurnal cumulus will fill in
across portions of the area over the next couple of hours,
allowing for sct clouds between 3-5 kft. these will fade with
sunset tonight. winds will average an easterly wind direction
for much of the taf period. a land breeze should develop tonight
allowing southeast flow at keri and kcle.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday into thursday. some storms could contain gusty winds
wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions will persist for the remainder of the
holiday and into tuesday with northeast flow of 10-15 knots
expected. these winds may result in isolated waves of 1-3 feet,
however not expecting those conditions to be widespread or
persistent. tuesday night winds will shift to southwesterly
ahead of an approaching cold front and increase to 15-20 knots.
these stronger winds will persist through wednesday before
weakening and becoming northwesterly at 5-10 knots by thursday
morning. given offshore flow, much of the lakeshore should see
1-3 foot waves, however as winds slowly begin to gain a more
northerly component, a few isolated waves of 3-5 feet may occur
across the eastern basin on wednesday. as a result, wednesday
may need a small craft advisory. on thursday, high pressure
returns along with pleasant marine conditions which should
persist through the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
372
fxus63 kiwx 072218
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 pm edt mon sep 7 2026

.key messages...

- high temperatures in the low-80s today and trending slightly
warmer tuesday and wednesday.

- there is a 40% to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms
wednesday through early thursday morning.

- a moderate swim risk may exist along the beaches of southeastern
lake michigan thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 145 pm edt mon sep 7 2026

main focus over the next couple of days will be flattening of upper
level ridge in response to an approaching, somewhat deamplifying
wave. signals past several days have been a line of showers and
storms forming on the sfc front to the nw tuesday afternoon and
progressing east tuesday night, most likely weakening as it arrives
in our nw counties towards wed am, with potential for renewed
development in the afternoon in the se half or so of the area.
moisture (dewpoints upper 60s to maybe low 70s), decent instability
(sbcape 1000-2000 j/kg) and at least minimally favorable shear
(around 30 kts) will exist wed afternoon/eve, resulting in spc
introducing a marginal risk of severe storms in se areas. that being
said, several models have sort of backed off on coverage tuesday
night and also location of redevelopment wed afternoon/eve. cloud
cover wednesday will play a huge role in what unfolds across our
area both with convective potential and eventual afternoon highs.
given the items noted, it is hard to buy into model blend of
categorical pops far nw wed am and se wed night with previous shift
capping pops in the likely range (more reasonable but possibly still
overdone). did cap pops wed am to likely, but for now will leave the
small sliver of cat pops in my far se wed night.

the initial front/pre-frontal trough will weaken with time wed
night into thur and stall or wash out with another disturbance
arriving later thu into thu night to finally push out the lingering
low level moisture and allow a return to more seasonable
temperatures as the west to east elongated upper ridge is suppressed
across the southern half of the us through the weekend. a deeper
trough enters the central us for the start of the work week which
may bring chances for showers and storms as well as warmer
temps.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 617 pm edt mon sep 7 2026

vfr with light easterly winds veering more southerly tomorrow as
the area remains under the influence of sfc high pressure
dropping southeast through the eastern great lakes and mid
atlantic.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
029
fxus63 kdtx 072302
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
702 pm edt mon sep 7 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warm today and tomorrow.

- showers with a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night and
wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

surface high pressure overhead this evening drifts into the ontario
peninsula late tonight on the way to the atlantic coast during
tuesday. it maintains light easterly wind and vfr conditions as
afternoon cumulus dissipates under increasing coverage of cirrus for
tonight. wind direction off lake erie will be monitored for signs of
stratocu, however recent guidance remains weak on cloud moisture
generation through tuesday morning. scattered cumulus returns in the
afternoon as weak daytime instability builds under continued cirrus
coverage into tuesday evening.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 345 pm edt mon sep 7 2026

discussion...

high pressure and inbound ridge axis will control the weather today
into tomorrow. surface high pressure expected to slide to the
eastern great lakes tonight while ridge axis ridge axis begins to
slide into the central great lakes. the general southeast flow today
is helping support a healthy cumulus field across most of southeast
michigan. lack of deeper moisture and stability will keep the
forecast free of precipitation through the remainder of today and
through tonight. lows tonight down into the 50s tonight. the
increasingly south to southwest flow tomorrow with the ridge axis and
eventually passage of it will lead. this will result in warm/moist
advection that will allow daytime highs on tuesday to reach the low
80s and surface dewpoints to climb above 60 degrees.

helping drive this warm/moist airmass into the region will be a
pacific trough that is forecast to eject across the northern
plains and central canada. low-mid level jet forcing along with the
systems associated cold front will lead to the next chance of
widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms tuesday night through
wednesday. within the theta-e ridge will be a plume of deep moisture
that has pwat values to around 2 inches and be the corridor of
focused convection. the southwest to northeast orientation of this
corridor will lead to pops increasing across the saginaw valley
first on tuesday night before greater upscale growth occurs through
wednesday morning as the system propagates downstream into southeast
michigan over the course of wednesday. less favorable early day
timing and the potential for cloud cover may temper a stronger
instability response. towards the southern michigan border would be
the favored locations that greater instability may be able to
develop. while shear will be favorable, mid-level lapse rates do not
appear to be very steep. at this time, the severe threat appears
limited and held south of the state with general thunderstorms more
likely across southeast michigan. given the degree of moisture
though, locally heavy rainfall will certainly be possible. current
qpf guidance is to around a half inch across the saginaw valley with
lesser amounts with southeast extent. in addition, winds will be
elevated on wednesday with increasing pressure gradient and gusts of
25 to 30 mph will be possible.

a trailing trough will help push the cold front out of the area by
thursday morning. post frontal airmass will bring cooler and less
humid conditions for thursday and friday. temperatures back into the
70s and dewpoints down in the 50s. over the weekend, temperatures
look to rebound back to around 80 degrees within quasi zonal flow.
passing shortwaves to the north offer low end pops at this stage.

marine...

high pressure drifts over the region through tuesday maintaining
benign marine conditions. south turning southwesterly winds
strengthen tuesday night into wednesday as seasonably strong low
pressure system tracks across southern canada into hudson bay. while
a gust or two two could reach entry-level gales over central lake
huron, winds are expected to peak around 30kts. return of a humid
airmass back to the region will support shower and thunderstorm
chances for much of the day wednesday before the attendant cold
front crosses late evening. moderate northwesterly flow follows for
thursday however only a glancing shot of cold advection and a
rapidly diminishing gradient has high pressure builds caps winds aob
30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.