Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
281
fxus61 kcle 091951
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
351 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

.what has changed...
a heat advisory has been issued for parts of northwest ohio for
wednesday. hot and humid conditions continue on thursday, and
additional advisories may be needed for part of the area.

&&

.key messages...
1) occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
ahead of a cold front that crosses on friday. risks for locally
heavy rain and severe weather exist, but overall confidence in
organized severe weather or heavy rain is currently low.

2) hot and humid conditions continue ahead of a cold front that
crosses on friday, with limited overnight relief. heat index
values will peak in the 90s to around 100 across much of the
area wednesday and thursday, with slightly cooler values closer
to the lakeshore in far northeast oh and northwest pa.

3) generally low impact weather is expected this weekend into
early next week, with a few low rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a typical setup for this time of year with occasional chances
for convection until a cold front crosses on friday, but with
plenty of dry windows and rather low confidence in when/where
the most organized rain/storm chances play out.

for this evening and tonight, weak low pressure currently over
northern lower michigan will continue to drift east into
ontario. the warm front has cleared the area, though another
surface trough currently extends across western ohio and will
work east across the area through early wednesday. aloft, a very
weak shortwave trough currently moving east out of the upper
mississippi valley will move across the region overnight tonight
into early wednesday. will monitor the surface trough moving
east across the area along with the modest upper support that
will move through later tonight for increased shower and thunder
potential. there may also be a few isolated pop-up showers and
storms elsewhere this evening given uncapped instability.
certainly not looking at a steady/widespread rain this evening
or tonight, but given the humid airmass, instability, and
various weak sources for lift suspect a good number of areas
will get a shower/storm at some point. this activity may linger
into the first part of wednesday across far northeast oh and
northwest pa before continuing to exit east.

the main concern tonight with any convection will be locally
heavy rain, given near record high precipitable water values for
early june, weak flow, and skinny instability profiles. however,
the disorganized nature of any convection should be a limiting
factor for heavy rain/flash flooding potential. strong low-level
instability and turning along the surface trough axis has led to
some rotating storms in eastern michigan this afternoon...shear
and forcing are a bit weaker with southward extent into ohio,
meaning the severe weather threat should be rather minimal.

wednesday should be a largely dry dry with minimal forcing as a
narrow ridge axis builds in. lingering northwest flow aloft
across northeast oh and northwest pa and potential for an
outflow boundary to linger in that vicinity does offer means for
isolated to widely scattered storms to fire wednesday
afternoon/evening given moderate to strong instability. however,
with the weak forcing activity should be limited and pops are
generally in the 20-40% range, briefly a bit higher in parts of
northeast oh and northwest pa in the evening. strong and deep
instability profiles coupled with marginal deep-layer shear can
support a severe risk in the form of damaging winds and perhaps
hail if storms do develop across parts of the area, though
again this is of lower confidence.

a number of models suggest potential for an organized mcs to
develop upstream of our area wednesday evening and turn
southeast into the deeper instability and towards our area
overnight wednesday night. a modest west-southwest low-level jet
could help maintain convection into our area if it`s able to
organize upstream. activity would be on a weakening trend if it
is able to enter our area, though given the humid and unstable
airmass that will persist even overnight can not rule out a severe
weather threat in the form of damaging winds if a robust mcs
can develop upstream and move in. the spc day 2 outlook does
include a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for toledo for this
potential, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere.

a similar setup on thursday, with the ridge axis essentially
overhead but potential for activity from wednesday night to
linger into thursday across southern/eastern portions of our
area. outside of that, there should be plenty of dry time on
thursday. will again need to monitor for isolated to scattered
convection thursday afternoon and evening given the hot, humid,
and very unstable airmass, potential lingering outflow
boundaries or a lake breeze, and modest northwest flow aloft
over the eastern portions of the area. while there`s again low
confidence in widespread/organized convection thursday afternoon
or evening, there`s some severe weather potential with very
impressive instability profiles. weaker shear and the discussed
lack of forcing are potential negating factors.

the greatest confidence in organized convection is likely late
thursday night into friday along and just ahead of a strong cold
front that will cross on friday. the front is currently favored
to move across our area friday morning and early afternoon. if
that works out the greatest severe potential would be to our
west thursday night and then ramp back up to our east friday
afternoon. will continue to pin down the timing of the front,
as even a modest slower trend would increase potential for
severe weather in at least our eastern counties on friday.

the airmass remains very soupy ahead of the front so locally
heavy rain will remain a concern with any convection until it
clears. the thinking is convection should remain disorganized
or sporadic enough to continue limiting the potential for truly
excessive rain amounts or flash flooding, though if any
training or repeated storms occur it would become an issue.

key message 2...

dew points will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s until the
front clears on friday, with very warm afternoon highs and mild
overnight lows offering little relief. lows through thursday
night will struggle to dip below the upper 60s and lower 70s.
highs on wednesday will generally reach the upper 80s and lower
90s, though more clouds and some component of flow off the lake
will keep extreme northeast ohio and northwest pa several
degrees cooler. thursday`s highs should be rather close to
wednesday`s, perhaps a degree or two warmer in spots assuming
there isn`t more convection than expected on thursday. highs
will begin getting knocked back on friday as the front crosses.

have issued a heat advisory for much of northwest ohio for
wednesday afternoon. heat index values should top out in the
upper 90s and lower 100s in the advisory counties. we may need
additional advisories on thursday for portions of the area,
possibly as far east as cleveland, though will give another day
of model runs to better evaluate any convective or cloud cover
wrinkles to that forecast. more clouds and a bit more marine
influence in far northeast oh and northwest pa will keep peak
heat index values in the upper 80s/lower 90s there both days.
elsewhere, peak heat index values should get well into the 90s
outside of the heat advisory. given the early season nature of
the heat and lacking overnight relief, those who are without
proper air conditioning, work outside, or are otherwise
sensitive to the heat will want to take precautions.

key message 3...

temperatures will still be summer-like but closer to normal this
weekend, with a re-enforcing shot of cooler air expected to
bring below average temperatures early next week behind a sunday
cold front. mainly dry weather is favored this weekend into
early next week, but will need to monitor the expected cold
front on sunday for shower and storm chances.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
mixed-bag of vfr and mvfr across the taf sites this afternoon,
associated with pockets of lower ceilings. highest confidence
for non-vfr vsbys over the next several hours is at tol/fdy/eri
as there remain two areas of concern for shower and
thunderstorm development. anticipate vsbys to briefly fall to
ifr with the passing showers and thunderstorms, and have these
reflected as tempos in the latest update. another wave of energy
will move east through the area later this evening and
overnight, though confidence in direct taf impacts remains low.
an area of low ceilings may also develop late overnight into
wednesday morning, particularly along and east of the i-71
corridor. although mvfr ceilings are reflected in the latest
update, it is possible for ceilings to trend lower towards ifr
in future packages.

winds are generally out of the south this afternoon, 10 to 15
knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. winds will
gradually shift towards the southwest overnight, then favor a
west to southwest direction by early wednesday afternoon, around
10 knots.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms through friday. another period of non-vfr
conditions is possible in showers and thunderstorms sunday
afternoon.

&&

.marine...
apart from the threat of thunderstorms into friday, and potentially
again on sunday, mainly quiet marine conditions are expected across
lake erie through the weekend with no headlines anticipated and flow
generally offshore, south to southwest, 10 to 15 knots. main period
of concern for any stronger thunderstorms appears to be wednesday
night into thursday as guidance is hinting at a line of convection
moving west to east across the lower great lakes.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz003-
006>009-017-018.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
736
fxus63 kiwx 091931
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
331 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity on the increase through thursday, with highs
in the mid-upper 80s and low 90s. heat indices on wednesday
and thursday will be around 100 degrees. lows will be in the
60s, low- mid 70s.

- daily chances (generally 40-80 percent) for showers and storms
this week. severe weather potential exists for both wednesday
and thursday during the late afternoon-evening and overnight
hours. there is higher confidence in the threat materializing
thursday evening into the overnight hours, especially west of
interstate 69. damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats. a tornado or two may be possible, especially thursday
evening/night.

- lower chances (20-30 percent) for showers and storms return
sunday afternoon into monday, with temps cooling into the low
to mid 80s with decreased humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

very warm/moist airmass remains over the area and further
increase in humidity values with low to mid 70s today and
increasing into the mid to upper 70s by tomorrow. did opt to
address this heat/humidity (higher heat indices) for wednesday
with an issuance of a heat advisory from noon until 8 pm. heat
indices will generally be near 100 but values up to 103 will be
possible especially our eastern portions of the cwa. uncertainty
on if clouds may keep the heat indices a bit blunted but we
would certainly be splitting hairs as it will be muggy and very
uncomfortable and with this being the first bout of decent
heat/humidity this season will be a bit more taxing on everyones
system.

the unstable airmass has also allowed for any perturbations such
as this morning`s shortwave to fire off bouts of convection and
will continue to do so over the next several days. the nature
of this definitely has made for a difficult convective forecast
especially with the timing and coverage. guidance also seems to
be struggling with no real consensus had between convective
allowing models. for the short term the lack of available
shear/forcing mechanisms have led to more of the pulse variety
of storms with the main impacts in the form of heavy downpours
in the very tropical-esque environment along with a few strong
outflow gusts accompanying any collapsing cores. a weak
shortwave looks to move through later today and will see an
uptick in thunderstorm/shower activity overnight tonight with
less than ideal diurnal timing which should also mitigate storm
strength. another shortwave transversing through the area late
in the day tomorrow will bring another round of convection
however, the exact timing has been very difficult to nail down
and any morning convection could interfere with the afternoon
set up especially with increased clouds. as of right now the 6
pm through midnight edt time frame looks like the best bet for
timing. spc currently has our area under a marginal to slight
risk for severe thunderstorms with the better chances over the
northwestern parts of the cwa. main threats will be gusty winds
and hail. some of the convection looks to continue into thursday
morning.

still very difficult to lock down the exact timing but latest
guidance has a cool front approaching from the northwest by
thursday evening. 9pm until 3 am edt looks to be the best period
for this front to push through. the cool front will provide a
better forcing mechanism as well as provide better shear
profiles. some question as to if any convection earlier in the
day may affect the environment into the evening which could
mitigate the strength and coverage of storms along the frontal
boundary. but as of right now spc does have our area in a
marginal to enhanced risk for severe storms with the stronger
storms possible again over the northwestern portions of the
cwa. all threats look to be on the table with this event
including a few tornadoes being possible.

cooler and most importantly a drier airmass moves in behind the
front on friday and saturday. highs in the upper 70s to low/mid
80s expected with no precipitation forecast. however, another
cool front approaches the area by sunday morning bringing
another shot of cooler air while increasing chances for some
garden variety showers/thunderstorms on sunday into monday.
another trough drops southward into the central conus on
tuesday which will keep a slight threat of showers/thunderstorms
for the area in play.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1238 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

diurnal heating and mixing will likely allow mvfr cigs to mix up
into low vfr shortly after issuance with primarily vfr
conditions anticipated through the taf cycle. will have to
monitor widely scattered convection this afternoon into early
this evening in this moist airmass. brief flight reductions
possible if any storms track over the terminals. the only other
flight concern will be later tonight into early wednesday
morning at ksbn where low stratus/br could fill in near a subtle
frontal boundary (low confidence).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for inz006>009-
015-017-018-022>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for miz081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
951
fxus63 kdtx 091954
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
354 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening. any activity
will pose a locally heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gust
threat.

- a heat advisory is in effect wednesday for portions of southeast
michigan along and south of the i 96 corridor including metro
detroit. heat indices are expected to range between 90 and 100
degrees both wednesday and thursday afternoons. a heat advisory may
be needed for portions of southeast michigan again thursday

- thunderstorms will be possible wednesday and thursday. the greater
severe thunderstorm threat will be late thursday/thursday night with
a slight risk in place for all of southeast michigan.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

active midday period arose as a persistent cyclonic swirl developed
at the lead edge of a lower atmosphere kinematic surge. backed flow
and enhanced helicity in a buoyant near surface environment were
enough to bring a heightened potential for tornadic circulations.
model data suggests the convergence maximum associated with this
troughing signal will carry northward out into lake huron late this
afternoon.

with the establishment of a deeper boundary layer and greater
unidirectional flow, forecast reasoning for the remainder of the day
was provided in earlier discussions and remains valid. the main
concern for the late afternoon and evening will be the potential for
isolated flooding from heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe
wind gusts from wet microbursts.

upper level ridging is shown to amplify again locally over the
central great lakes wednesday with a good amount of convectively
modulated moisture/saturation contained within the rising heights.
the net result is a very warm and humid airmass expected with low
predictability with regards to convective timing and coverage.
clouds are a tough forecast in a moist environment, however nam rh
progs and probabilistic nbm gives low probs for greater than 50% of
total cloud coverage 10am to 6pm wednesday. with dewpoints reaching
the lower 70s and highs reaching +90 degrees there is high
confidence in wet bulb globe temperatures (accounting for june sun
effects) exceeding 88 degrees. decided to go ahead an issue a heat
advisory for wednesday between noon and 8pm edt.

proximity and approach of upper level troughing will bring the
potential for upstream convection to make a run at southeast
michigan at various times late wednesday. challenging to pin down
favored time windows as hires signal suggests multiple opportunities
for thunderstorms all the while southeast michigan will be in a low
shear environment. as a result, mcs activity will have the potential
to weaken rapidly at approach both wednesday evening and/or possibly
again late wednesday night. timing of the convection will likely
determine the potential for severe weather because a subset of
solutions exist that instability will be elevated for any late
wednesday night thunderstorms. it is also after the 6z thursday
timeframe that heaviest rainfall potential may occur. not
anticipating much mesocyclone threat wednesday which limits severe
weather type to large hail to 1 inch and/or damaging wind gusts to 60
mph. southeast michigan is designated as a marginal risk for severe
weather.

a good anticyclonic vorticity advection signal exists early thursday
in a favorable zone for subsidence downstream of the approaching
upper level pv maximum. the subsidence is expected to result in a
good amount of clearing with nbm probabilities showing 0-50% of
greater than 50% cloud cover. expectations are for a quick recovery
of the hot and humid conditions with heat indices rising into the 90
to 100 degree range. a heat advisory will likely be needed again
thursday for at least a portion of southeast michigan.

a strong absolute vorticity center is forecasted to lift into the
straits region thursday evening driving the main jet core and cold
front into lower michigan thursday evening/night. it appears that
deep layer shear will increase immediately in advance of the cold
front with 0- 6km bulk shear values climbing between 30-50 knots. a
probable solution is that convection will organize over portions of
iowa and illinois before advancing eastward along a forward
propagating cold pool. a few solutions, including 12km nam, gem, and
rrfs suggests a linear mode mcs system tracking towards lower
michigan around 3z friday. the latest swody3 has southeast michigan
designated as a slight risk for severe weather.

zonal flow pattern aloft will develop over the great lakes region
bringing more seasonable conditions to southeast michigan friday
and the start of the weekend. latest indications suggests a
secondary cold front impinging southward sometime sunday.

&&

.marine...

weak low pressure over northern lower mi tracks into lake huron this
evening. scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread
across the local area as high humidity surges in. this humidity will
cause marine fog to develop over the cool open waters of lake huron
tonight, and a dense fog advisory may be needed. southeast wind
around 10 kt will veer around to westerly as the low passes through
overnight into wednesday morning. a warm and unstable air mass will
then take residence wednesday and thursday, bringing additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms as several disturbances move
through. severe storms will be possible, mainly wednesday night and
again thursday night. prevailing wind will be out of the west and
southwest with potential for gusts upwards of 20 kt at times,
especially over the shallower, warmer waters of saginaw bay, western
lake erie, and lake st. clair. a cold front passes through the
region thursday night and brings a brief period of drier conditions.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 105 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

aviation...

warm frontal boundary has largely lifted north of the terminal
corridor ushering in increasing low level moisture supporting mvfr
ceilings. scattered showers have thus far developed early this
afternoon however satellite obs show partial clearing over sw lower
mi which is advancing into se mi. increasing solar insolation is
still expected to allow for scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon lingering into the evening hours. overall setup carries
low predictability so have maintained inherited tempo-prob 30
framework to highlight the windows for potential storms with minor
tweaks to timing. soundings advertise an inversion developing
overnight as drier air filters in aloft which should result in a
persistent low vfr-high mvfr cloud layer going into wednesday
morning.

d21/dtw convection... scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through the evening (18-02z) with higher coverage favored
for the 18-21z window.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* moderate for thunderstorms between 18z and 02z this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for miz069-070-075-
076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......tf
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.