Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
748 pm edt tue jul 28 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler and less humid the rest of the week with occasional widely
scattered showers in far ne ohio and nw pa through tonight.

2) turning warmer and more humid this weekend into the start of next
week with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but confidence in
coverage is low.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
afternoon satellite and water vapor loops show the
mid/upper trough deepening and becoming negatively tilted across the
great lakes and northeast conus. current rap analysis places the
surface low over western new york, with the trailing cold front
approaching the u.s. 30 corridor. a band of scattered showers along
and ahead of the front driven by weak instability and low-level
convergence is exiting a mahoning to knox county line. expect most
of the showers to be done by the time the front exits late this
afternoon, but lingered some slight chance pops through late
afternoon due to diurnal heating and progressively cooler air aloft
that could trigger an isolated shower or two. dew points remain
elevated this afternoon, but a secondary surface trough currently
crossing the lake will start to bring in the true airmass change
this evening.

for tonight, most areas will stay dry as the drier airmass continues
to advect in, but the surface low will become vertically stacked
beneath the closing off mid-level low over upstate new york. this
will lead to a deepening cyclonic flow cold air advection pattern
which should produce scattered lake enhanced rain showers in far ne
ohio and nw pa. wraparound moisture supports the idea of some
showers, but rap forecast soundings show lake to 850 mb delta t`s
only averaging about 10 c along with shallow moisture profiles
confined below 800 mb. an inversion will also be present around 800
mb, so this shallow moisture and low inversion environment will keep
the rain showers light and disorganized. with this all being said,
limited pops to slight chance in far ne ohio and nw pa tonight.

by wednesday, the drier air should win out and allow any lake
showers to end as the closed low gradually drifts farther east and
canadian high pressure builds in from the upper midwest. this high
will settle over the lower great lakes and ohio valley thursday into
friday allowing the pleasant temperatures and low humidity to
continue through the end of the week. lows in the mid 50s away from
the lake both thursday and friday mornings will give the air
conditioners a nice break.


key message 2...
the canadian high will shift into the mid atlantic
region this weekend allowing return southerly flow to develop as the
old closed low over the ne u.s weakens and lifts out. at the same
time, another northern stream mid/upper shortwave trough will drop
out of the upper midwest saturday and evolve into a closed low over
the ohio and tennessee valleys by sunday. deterministic and
ensemble guidance is struggling with the exact evolution and
ultimate track of this closed low and how long it will linger,
which is common in these set ups. confidence is highest in a
return to warmer and more humid conditions given the enhanced
warm air advection between the high to the east and closed low
diving to the west, but coverage of convection in this airmass
is much lower confidence. kept nbm chance pops saturday through
tuesday at this time, with the greatest coverage during daytime
heating. some areas that have missed out on rain the past couple
of weeks may see some with the scattered convection between
this weekend and early next week as we turn the calendar to
august.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
widespread vfr ceilings remain in place this afternoon with
pockets of lake effect showers across western portions of the
forecast area. ceilings will scatter out this evening, with lake
effect/enhanced clouds redeveloping overnight. mvfr ceilings
are expected in parts of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania, improving shortly after sunrise. vfr conditions
with few/sct cumulus clouds continue through the day wednesday.

gusty northerly winds will diminish below 10 knots after
sunset, with sustained winds 10-12 knots and gusts to 20 knots
expected from the northwest tomorrow. a persistent vfr forecast
is expected through the end of the week, with gusty winds
ending thursday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected saturday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.marine...
northerly at 15-25 knots are expected to continue through early
wednesday night before gradually diminishing as high pressure
builds in from the west. onshore flow will allow for wave
heights in the central and eastern basins to build to 4-7 feet.
small craft advisories and beach hazards statements remain in
effect to highlight the timeframe of highest risk to small craft
and beach goers through early wednesday night.

light and calm winds expected by friday as high pressure becomes
centered overhead, generally becoming easterly over the weekend
as low pressure passes to the south.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through late wednesday night for
ohz009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt thursday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 8 pm edt wednesday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...27
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
637 pm edt tue jul 28 2026

.key messages...

-high waves and dangerous currents persist the southeast lake
michigan beaches through wednesday morning.

-dry with temperatures in the low to mid 80s these next few days.
morning lows near 60.

-next best chance for rain is friday night through saturday morning
(30-50% chance).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 pm edt tue jul 28 2026

an upper-level low continues to slowly track east through ontario
and into quebec as of midday, dragging lingering clouds along with
it. a secondary area of stratus is noted across central michigan,
attempting to seep south while stratus persists down wind of lake
michigan amid northeasterly flow. a touch breezy in spots this
afternoon with gusts near 20 mph thanks to the departing low. these
gusts have produced 4 to 5 foot waves on lake michigan where
dangerous swimming conditions are expected through wednesday morning.

with high pressure becoming established tonight, lows will be in the
upper-50s humid conditions will continue to fade. high pressure
lingers through most of this week while the upper-air pattern
continues to be characterized by a towering 500mb ridge over the
four corners. we remain on the northeast side of this ridge keeping
things relatively seasonable. however, by the end of the week,
various shortwaves enter the upper-level flow presenting the chance
for showers and thunderstorms. there is growing agreement that low
pressure develops over the northern plains and arrives to indiana
friday night through saturday morning, representing our next best
chance for rain.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 635 pm edt tue jul 28 2026

scattered cu persists at both sites, but should be on the
decline over the next hour or 2 with loss of daytime heating.
thereafter, combination of cirrus and smoke aloft is all that
will be around. winds will continue to diminish.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through wednesday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through wednesday morning for miz177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1201 am edt wed jul 29 2026

.key messages...

- near normal temperatures and dry conditions over the next couple
days.

- chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through the remainder of tonight as dry
air limits the degree of vfr clouds still present to start this taf
period. winds are expected to hold out of the north with winds down
to around 5 knots through the early morning hours. continued
favorable aviation conditions into the afternoon with vfr expected.
northerly winds will continue as daytime mixing produces gusts up to
20 knots with limited vfr diurnal cumulus development.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through wednesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 256 pm edt tue jul 28 2026

discussion...

upper-level northwest confluent flow will support subsidence and a
drying trend through tomorrow. low clouds should dissipate by early
evening, and it appears that surface dew pts will lower enough to
help mitigate fog potential tonight. an upper-level ridge axis
extending north into central canada will fold over and arrive over
the central great lakes thursday evening into thursday night.

the forecast then gets complicated friday and into the weekend.
there is a series over upper-level disturbances that will
consolidate over the northern plains. how much amplification takes
place varies amongst the medium-range models. deeper and faster
amplification would support a deepening 500 mb trough/low developing
over iowa/southern minnesota on friday and diving southeast friday
night, shifting the bulk of showers into the western ohio valley.
southeast michigan has better shot at precipitation with the weak
cold front dropping south from the northern great lakes during the
second half of the weekend. either way, nbm pops are currently
running around 30-50 percent. modest instability supports, at best,
just a slight chance of thunderstorms.

temperatures through forecast period look to remain around normal,
not deviating much more than +/- 5 degrees. friday looks to feature
the warmest max temperatures, per euro ensembles, reaching the upper
80s to near 90 degrees.

marine...

there will be continued gusty conditions for the rest of the evening
into wednesday, which will maintain the issued small craft
advisories and beach hazard statements across lake huron. winds of
up to 25 kt are expected. these winds will calm down by thursday
into the end of the week as high pressure enters the region. dry
conditions are expected until we see our next chance of showers
heading into this weekend as a cold front moves into the great
lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......to/tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.