Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
439 am est mon jan 26 2026

.what has changed...
increased the snow forecast for today`s lake-effect snow, and
we`re now looking at an additional 1-3 inches of snow across
the snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. also
increased the snow forecast for tuesday`s clipper. generally
expecting most of the area to get at least a dusting of snow,
with an additional 1-3 inches of snow across the snowbelt.
finally, the extreme cold watch was upgraded to an extreme cold
warning, with wind chills forecast to reach -25 across much of
the area tonight into tuesday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake-effect snow continues across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania, causing poor road conditions to linger
through this evening.

2) dangerous wind chills down to -25 f are expected to bring
significant cold exposure risks to the entire area tonight into
tuesday morning.

3) light snow is expected areawide on tuesday, with lake-
enhanced snow producing light snow accumulations across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. this may produce
minor travel impacts.

4) prolonged cold is expected through the weekend creating
elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low- level moisture wrapping around the departing 850mb low
continues to linger across the area. cold air over lake effect
has produced minor lake-induced cape, which along with
orographic lift, has produced light, accumulating snowfall
across the primary snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania early this morning. area cameras and traffic speed
information indicates that travel impacts remain due to snow-
covered roads (including major highways) from yesterday`s major
winter storm, especially in the cleveland-akron metro area.

upstream, and upper-level trough resides over the northern great
lakes and upper midwest. this trough will move southeast across
the great lakes, further producing lift and deeper moisture up
700mb. 850mb temperatures should further cool down this morning
to around -18 c, which as the upper-level trough approaches,
should re-intensify the lake-effect snow across the primary
snowbelt. despite lake erie being nearly ice-covered (latest
analysis has lake erie at 92% ice-covered), additional moisture
and warmth can be provided through thin ice, and cracks in the
ice. additional snow accumulations of around 1 to 3 inches are
expected in the primary snowbelt with localized higher amounts
of 3 to 4 inches possible in eastern cuyahoga, southern lake,
northern geauga, and erie, pa south of i-90. where it snows,
expect minor travel impacts to persist through this evening.

as a result, the winter storm warning has been downgraded to a
winter weather advisory and extended through 4 pm today to
better reflect the ongoing but lower-end travel impacts from
lingering snow cover and light lake effect snowfall.

key message 2...
the upper-level trough departs to the east, and an arctic
airmass associated with surface high pressure centered over
texas will extend northeastward towards the lower great lakes
region. as the ridge builds in, should see an area of clearing
skies, and aided by a deep snowpack, should see temperatures
plummet below zero areawide. the temperature forecast trended
lower with this forecast package, especially in central and
east-central ohio where low temperatures could dip to -5 or
lower. breezy southwest winds develop early tuesday morning
behind the departing surface ridge, which when combined with the
cold air temperatures will produce dangerous wind chills down
to -25. the extreme cold watch was upgraded to an extreme cold
warning for the entire area from 7 pm this evening through 11 am
tuesday morning.

key message 3...
a clipper system swings southeast across the great lakes on
tuesday with sufficient cold air and moisture depth for brief,
light snow across the area tuesday morning. breezy southwest
winds tuesday morning may result in patchy blowing or drifting
snow, especially west of i-71 where wind gusts of 30-35 mph will
be possible. this will transition to lake effect snow showers
for the primary snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania where an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow and
minor travel impacts are expected.

key message 4...
an upper-level trough remains over much of the eastern conus
through the end of the week, with stubborn anomalously cold
temperatures across the great lakes region through the weekend.
the recent snow storm has produced a deep snowpack areawide,
which should further enhance cold temperatures across the area. air
temperatures at or below zero will be common through saturday
with minimum wind chill values ranging between -10 and -25,
increasing the risk of frostbite or hypothermia. additional
cold weather advisories or extreme cold warnings are likely.

infrastructure impacts from cold air temperatures tend to
increase for longer duration events, especially when the daily
average temperature dips below 16 degrees (this is a local
criteria) for multiple days. this results in increased
likelihood of burst frozen pipes, dead car batteries, power
outages, increased chances for carbon monoxide poisoning (from
improper use of secondary sources of heat) and structure fires.

additionally, we will likely start to see ice develop and
thicken on area rivers.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
at the surface, a ridge builds from the north-central united
states through 06z/tues. our regional surface winds will back
from ne`erly to sw`erly through the taf period and remain around
5 to 15 knots in magnitude. gusts up to 20 knots are possible,
especially between ~15z/mon and ~23z/mon. scattered to
widespread low clouds are expected through ~23z/mon and will
have bases primarily in the range of 800 ft to 3.5kft agl. after
~23z/mon, sky should clear considerably across most of our
region. however, scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli
with bases near 3kft agl should stream generally e`ward across
far-ne oh and nw pa through ~04z/tues and then shift offshore by
06z/tues as mean low-level flow backs from w`erly toward
sw`erly.

mainly dry weather and vfr visibility are expected through the
taf period. however, light lake-effect snow (les) downwind of
mainly ice-covered lake erie should impact ne oh and nw pa
through ~04z/tues as mean low-level flow backs from n`erly
toward sw`erly. after ~04z/tues, lingering les should become
located offshore our region. visibility should vary between vfr
and mvfr in the les.

outlook...additional periods of snow with non-vfr are possible
overnight monday night through friday. greatest chances exist
in ne oh and nw pa, where periodic lake-effect snow downwind of
mainly ice-covered lake erie should occur.

&&

.marine...
nw winds early this morning will gradually shift to wsw by this
evening with speeds increasing to 10-20 knots. sw winds will further
increase to 20-30 knots late tonight and tuesday ahead of a clipper
system and associated cold front dropping through the great lakes.
winds will turn wnw behind the front tuesday evening and tuesday
night, with speeds decreasing to 10-15 knots. another clipper
approaching the region will back winds on the lake to sw at 10-20
knots wednesday before turning nw and decreasing to 10-15 knots
behind the associated cold front wednesday night and thursday. nw
winds of 10-15 knots will then continue through friday.

lake erie is mostly ice covered, and the ice will continue to
thicken this week as a deep arctic airmass remains entrenched across
the region. the shifting wind directions may also cause the ice to
shift, especially during the periods of stronger sw winds tonight
and tuesday and again wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme cold warning from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
tuesday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
ohz010>014-020>023-089.
pa...extreme cold warning from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
tuesday for paz001>003.
winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...jaszka
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1118 pm est sun jan 25 2026

.key messages...

- periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will create
difficult travel into monday morning, mainly impacting la
porte, st. joseph (in/mi), berrien and cass (mi) counties.

- dangerous wind chills expected tonight through tuesday morning
of 10 below to 20 below. cold weather advisories periodic
dangerous wind chills will continue through much of the work
week.

- additional rounds of lake effect snow showers are expected,
especially tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 350 pm est sun jan 25 2026

no major changes to the forecast this afternoon with the
ongoing winter storm. the main headline changes of note were to
include winter storm warnings for additional lake effect snow
later tonight/monday morning for berrien/laporte counties and
also to move up the expiration of the remaining counties in
winter weather headlines to 03z. cold weather advisories have
also been extended into tuesday morning for all of the forecast
area.

the lead mid level short wave and accompanying mid level speed max
across the ohio valley have shifted east of the area. some mid level
fgen induced bands did lead to some periodic episodes today of
larger flake size and better dendrite production, but expecting
this potential has mainly ended locally. some lagging upper
level 600-500 mb fgen forcing is providing some forcing for
additional short-lived banding, but this elevated forcing is
tending to occur in a layer too cold for optimal snow growth. a
strengthening upper jet streak downstream of next larger scale
upstream upper level trough across the upper midwest will help
continue some large scale forcing for ascent. this next upstream
trough will also allow another modest low/mid level front to
push across the area through early evening. additional light
snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected into early
evening, with perhaps locally higher amounts around 3 inches
where any short lived highly elevated fgen forced bands can
develop across especially southeast portions of the forecast
area in the winter storm warning area.

low level flow trajectories with track of this storm system have
yielded best lake effect/enhancement to snow from chicago metro
area into portions of extreme nw indiana. as the ohio valley
sfc reflection pulls off to the east this evening, low level
flow will back to the north allowing this lake
enhancement/effect to shift east across la porte/berrien/cass
mi/st. joseph in counties late evening into the morning hours
tuesday. inversion heights building to 7-8k feet and strong lift
in low level dgz should provide favorable instability/thermo
environment for lake effect snow showers. expected land breeze
development and development of a northerly fetch should promote
dominant single band development across porter county this
evening, with band expected to be somewhat progressive across
laporte into southwest berrien late evening/overnight. lake
aggregate trough should tend to slow and anchor this band across
favored nw flow lake effect areas for monday morning, although
low level convergence should tend to wane a little after
daybreak following diurnal tendencies. this lake effect setup
should also be aided by some synoptic enhancement with the
approach of the next larger scale upper trough. href
probabilities continue to indicate higher probs for periods of
1"+/hour snowfall rates across laporte/berrien during this time.
given recent snowfall of 2 to 5 inches across these areas and a
potential of 2 to 6 inches with additional lake effect snow
showers tonight/early monday, did go ahead and transition
berrien/la porte counties to a warning with impacts to the
monday morning commute likely. have maintained the advisory
across st. joseph in/cass mi/st. joseph mi where confidence in
amounts is lower due to higher likelihood of less organization
and transition to multiband setup during the day monday. a time
extension past 15z is also possible monday depending on how lake
effect evolves overnight, but confidence is high in monday
morning commute impacts.

otherwise, a cold weather advisory has been maintained for
western/southeast locations as core of low level thermal trough
drops across the western great lakes bringing wind chills of 10
below to 20 below across the advisory area. the cold weather
advisory has been expanded area-wide for monday evening through
tuesday morning.

the progressive pattern continues on tuesday with a brief shot of
"warm" advection early tuesday preceding the next northwest
flow digging trough and accompanying reinforcing cold front.
one item which may need monitoring for late monday night into
tuesday is some impacts from strong pre-frontal and post-
frontal winds on the existing dry, fluffy snowpack. some patchy
blowing and drifting snow is likely, especially across open and
rural areas. lake effect snow shower potential will increase
again early tuesday with the renewed cold advection push. lake
induced instability depths are not as deep as that of tonight
with fetch a little more west-northwest in nature, but some
impacts are possible early tuesday, especially during the period
of peak synoptic enhancement.

little change made to previous forecast post-wednesday with a
continuation of current synoptic pattern of frequent additional
reinforcing arctic intrusions keeping temperatures below normal
through the period along with some favored periods for more lake
effect snow showers.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1127 pm est sun jan 25 2026

a band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will likely pivot
into ksbn this morning with highly variable flight conditions
generally ranging between lifr and mvfr. this band should weaken
by late this morning and afternoon with less impacts. a few
flurries and/or light snow showers will be possible at kfwa,
with the best chance for cig/vis restrictions mid morning into
the early afternoon here. westerly winds pick up a bit
otherwise at both terminals this afternoon with gusts to 20
knots possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from 6 pm monday to 10 am est tuesday
for inz005>009-104-204.
cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ tuesday for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-116-203-216.
winter storm warning until 9 am cst monday for inz103-203.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est monday for inz104-204.
oh...cold weather advisory from 6 pm monday to 10 am est tuesday
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory from 6 pm monday to 10 am est tuesday
for miz078>081-177-277.
winter storm warning until 10 am est monday for miz177-277.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est monday for miz078-079.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
546 am est mon jan 26 2026

.key messages...

- a winter weather advisory remains in effect until 10am for huron
and sanilac counties.

- frigid conditions monday through friday with wind chills
occasionally reaching 15 below zero or colder. a cold weather
advisory is in effect this evening through tuesday morning for the
first episode of dangerous cold wind chills.

- snow showers around on tuesday are expected to produce a dusting to
2 inches of accumulation, with a low chance for isolated snow
squalls.

- a chance of snow showers exists on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

periods of light snowfall continue today leading to occasional mvfr
and briefly ifr visibilities. low confidence on timing of ifr
reductions, other than they will be correlated with slight
enhancements to snowfall rates. prevailing visibilities favor vfr for
most of the daytime hours, even with any additional flurry activity.
ceilings should become more scattered with time with evidence of
this shown in latest satellite imagery. winds back toward the west,
and eventually become southwesterly overnight. a modest pressure
gradient keeps speeds in the 10-15 knot range with gusts below 25
knots. bitter cold wind chills expected late tonight into tuesday
morning, as low as -20f. a clipper system moves in early tuesday
leading to a period of steadier snowfall and widespread reductions
in visibility to ifr.

for dtw...additional light snow showers this morning with brief ifr
visibilities, then steadier snowfall arrives early tuesday with
lower ceilings and prevailing ifr visibilities likely.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning.

* high in precipitation type as snow.

&&

.fire weather...


&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 326 am est mon jan 26 2026

discussion...

direct absolute vorticity advection within composite trough axis has
resulted in a firming of deformation forcing across southeast
michigan early this morning. both kdtx and caset z products showed
steady increase in returns the past 4-6 hours with measured reports
of high liquid to snow ratios of upwards of 20:1 to 30:1. nwp signal
suggests its going to take a couple more hours for the deformation
axis to pivot and sweep out of the region. will be interesting to
look at storm total snow reports in the thumb with this latest
overnight round on top of the lake enhancement from sunday. the
winter weather advisory remains in effect for huron and sanilac
counties through 10am. travel will be impacted this morning and no
changes will be made to the headlines. just very weak isentropic
descent is forecasted today with a delayed dry air advection response
in the midlevels. not expecting any synoptic scale support for lift
today but some supersaturation with respect to ice within the
dendritic growth zone will yield flurries from time to time.

brief shortwave ridging will build across the state this evening as
southeast michigan resides on the northern edge of the gradient to
the surface high passing through the southern united states. good
signal for southwesterly winds increasing into the 15 to 25 knot
range. dry lower column should allow for a quick temperature drop
allowing windchills to drop into the 10 to 20 degree below zero
range by midnight for most of the forecast area. a cold weather
advisory is in effect from 7 pm tonight until 10 am tuesday.
amplified clipper shortwave is then forecasted to dig right through
southeast michigan during the 9-14z time window tuesday morning.
decent warm advection response will support lift for a time, but the
real limiting factor will be an extremely narrow corridor of
saturation between 800-650mb. deterministic guidance is really
struggling with qpf amounts. looks to be a high pop/low qpf setup
and will carry snow accumulations early tuesday of around a half
inch. will likely see windchills rise a few degrees around daybreak
with the cloud and snow.

midlevel arctic intrusion of -25c will push through the area
tuesday afternoon and tuesday evening. differential warm advection
is then anticipated late tuesday night. there is question and
uncertainty with how much lake effect cloud will make it into
southeast michigan from lake michigan as the models could be
overforecasting the saturation. raw model guidance and the current
forecast is calling for windspeeds of around 5 knots wednesday
morning. it will be a real close call for windchills to fall to -15c
wednesday morning. adjustments to the temperature/windchill forecast
will likely occur.

a second and larger, colder arctic intrusion is forecasted to dig
straight southward into the great lakes thursday and friday. coldest
of the airmass, 850mb temperatures of -22 to -25c look to be
overhead friday morning. current windchill forecast thursday morning
has values dropping to -15f for most of the area and -20f for
friday. additional windchill headlines appear likely for the end of
the week. low confidence exists on how the cold anomaly will
transition and evolve out of the area. latest data suggests the
arctic air will push into the southeast united states and mid
atlantic. this scenario may result in a pattern change with quiet
weather and moderating temperatures next weekend, a solution the
deterministic ecmwf, gfs, and cmc all agree on.

marine...

light snow continues across the southern great lakes as an expansive
low pressure system progresses through the appalachia region.
departure of this system will reinforce arctic air across the great
lakes tomorrow and through the midweek period. this will again boost
overlake instability, promoting a steep mixing layer that will bring
breezy conditions for the next several days. wind gusts ranging 20
to 30 knots will be likely through this period, with some of these
higher end gusts entering tuesday morning ahead of a clipper system.
moderate freezing spray will be possible. lake effect snow banding
will be likely across the southern lake huron basin tonight into
tomorrow morning, with widespread light snow possible with the
aforementioned clipper system.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est tuesday
for miz048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz049-055.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...cb
marine.......am
fire wx......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.