Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
650 am edt thu mar 26 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing in widespread showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon through tonight with scattered to numerous severe
storms across the area. much of the area has been upgraded to an
enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather from the storm
prediction center to best reflect the severe potential later
today.

&&

.key messages...
1) severe weather is expected this afternoon through tonight with
all severe hazards possible (i.e. - damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and tornadoes). storms will be fast moving but will also train over
the same areas, which may allow for locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding.

2) cool, but dry, weather is expected on friday and saturday. a
resurgence in warmer temperatures will begin on sunday with
unsettled weather following in on monday, allowing for periodic
rain chances for much of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the combination of a warm front and strong low level jet entering
the area this morning will allow for two windows of showers and
thunderstorms later today with all severe hazards of damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and tornadoes possible. the first window is from
1 to 4 pm for far ne ohio and nw pa with a conditional, isolated
severe window with the warm front. the second window is from 5 pm to
midnight, when showers and storms will be expected areawide,
moving from the northwest to the southeast, as the warm front
returns south as a cold front. much of the area has been
upgraded to an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather
from the storm prediction center to best reflect the severe
potential later today.

the warm front is over central illinois and southern indiana this
morning and will continue pushing northeast toward the forecast
area. this front has generated a fair amount of elevated convection
that may bring some morning rain to the forecast area. the front
will largely stall out over lakes michigan and erie and temperatures
for much of the forecast area will surge into the 60s and 70s this
afternoon. when combined with dew points in the mid to upper 50s,
instability should be able to build considerably with 1000-1500 j/kg
of mlcape over northern ohio. behind the front, a strong 50 kt 850
mb low level jet will also enter the region and allow for wind shear
to increase with 0-6 km bulk shear values in the 50 to 60 kt range
and 0-3 km srh values of 200-300 m2/s2, suggesting some more
organized low-level wind shear. overall, many of the ingredients
will be coming together to support a severe weather threat across
the forecast area.

for the first window this afternoon from 1 to 4 pm in ne ohio and nw
pa, the convection will be specifically tied to the warm front. as
the warm front progresses through the forecast area this morning,
much of the convection will be elevated and may not amount to more
than a scattered rain chance. however, by afternoon, there may be
potential for some this convection try to become more surface-based
and intensify into an organized severe weather threat. the
dynamic environment along and ahead of the warm front will be
fairly favorable for any surface based storms that do end up
developing. there will be very favorable wind shear with the
warm front advancing from the southwest, the westerly low level
jet, and the northwesterly upper level flow and it would be
possible that surface-based storms would be supercells with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado.
while concerning, the threat is both conditional and a very
short window, as the warm front surges toward lake erie. it is
possible that some of the elevated convection that will move
through this morning will work over the atmosphere just enough
to prevent these stronger, surface-based storms. in addition,
the entire system continues to trend just a touch faster with
each model cycle and that could also indicate that the front
could reach lake erie before initiating new convection over the
region. in the end, there is plenty of conditionality to this
setup, but if it materializes, there would be a couple sneaky
severe storms ahead of the main show below.

the main show with the enhanced risk will be from late afternoon
onward, as the warm front will be pushed back south as a cold front
and initiate widespread showers and thunderstorms across northern
ohio. these new thunderstorms will take advantage of a relatively
favorable atmosphere, as described above, and present a severe
threat to much of the forecast area. for this window, the main storm
mode will likely be linear with a touch less shear south of the
frontal boundary. this line of storms will push east-southeast,
moving parallel to the boundary through the evening hours. the main
threat with this line will be damaging wind gusts. however, the
increasing low level jet during the evening hours will enhance the
low level shear once again and qlcs tornadoes will be possible
within the line. the severe threat should be south of the forecast
area after midnight.

with showers and thunderstorms moving parallel to the frontal
boundary and precipitable water values approaching 1.5", storms will
produce efficient rainfall and train over the same areas this
evening. there may be some locally heavy rainfall and isolated
flooding, but flash flood guidance remains somewhat high for late
march near 2 inches. in addition, storms will be moving quickly,
given the strong flow aloft, and flooding does not appear to be as
high as a concern as other severe weather hazards at this time.

key message 2...
high pressure will build south across the region on friday
behind the cold front from this evening`s severe weather event.
temperatures will fall back below normal with highs in the 30s
and 40s on friday and 40s on saturday. high pressure will allow
for dry conditions.

for sunday, the high pressure system will push east and allow
for another warm front to enter the region, allowing
temperatures to return to the 50s. the warmer air will continue
to build on monday with moist, return flow entering into the
region. rain chances will start again on monday with daily rain
chances expected. the best opportunities for rain at this time
would be tuesday with a reinforcing warm front and wednesday
with a cold front.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
w`erly to wnw`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 12z/fri. at the surface, a high pressure
ridge continues to exit generally se`ward before a strong cold
front sweeps sse`ward through our region between ~21z/thurs and
~02z/fri. behind the front, a strong ridge builds from the
canadian prairies and vicinity through 12z/fri. ahead of the
cold front, our regional surface winds trend s`erly to sw`erly.
winds veer quickly to nw`erly and then toward ne`erly behind
the front. pre-front and post-front winds will be around 10 to
15 knots and gust up to 20 to 25 knots, especially after
~14z/thurs.

primarily vfr and dry weather are expected for the time being.
however, isolated rain showers associated with subtle disturbances
aloft are expected through ~18z/thurs, but vfr are likely with
these showers. as the surface cold front moves through our
region, a line of organized showers and thunderstorms is
expected to accompany the front. some storms will likely be
severe with brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 65 knots and
damaging hail. a few tornadoes are possible. the line of
showers/storms will likely be accompanied by periods of heavy
rain and brief mvfr to lifr. behind the line, widespread light
to moderate rain and associated mvfr to ifr are expected to
accompany the upper-reaches of the cold front. isolated
thunderstorms may accompany the upper-reaches of the front for
several hours following the surface front`s passage. the
widespread rain should begin to exit generally s`ward after
~08z/fri and be confined to far-southern portions of our region,
south of a line through kfdy, kmfd, and kcak, by 12z/fri.
widespread mvfr ceilings should linger in the wake of the
widespread rain and through the end of the taf period.

outlook...periodic rain, perhaps mixed with wet snow at times,
and non-vfr ceilings may linger into early friday afternoon.
non-vfr possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms this
monday.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory has been issued for these nearshore u.s.
waters:

- reno beach to willowick from 11 pm edt today to 4 pm friday
- willowick to conneaut from 2 am to 4 pm friday

primarily s`erly to sw`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected
through most of this afternoon as a high pressure ridge exits slowly
se`ward. waves remain 3 feet or less. a strong cold front should
sweep sse`ward across lake erie late this afternoon through early
evening and cause sw`erly winds to veer quickly to n`erly to ne`erly
and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots through the remainder of this
evening as waves build toward 2 to 5 feet. behind the front, a
strong high pressure ridge builds from the northern great plains and
vicinity through friday and will cause winds to vary between nw`erly
and ne`erly. initial wind speeds around 15 to 25 knots should ease
gradually to 5 to 15 knots by midnight friday night. waves initially
as large as 3 to 6 feet should subside to 3 feet or less by midnight
friday night.

on saturday through sunday, the ridge should continue to impact lake
erie as the embedded high pressure center moves from the upper ms
valley toward va and vicinity. this will allow a warm front to drift
generally n`ward across lake erie saturday night. accordingly, winds
around 5 to 15 knots should back gradually from n`erly to sw`erly to
s`erly. waves should remain 3 feet or less. on monday, the ridge
should exit se`ward as a cold front eventually settles se`ward over
lake erie. the cold front passage should cause s`erly to sw`erly
winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to n`erly. waves should be
mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 to 5 footers are forecast
currently. we will continue to monitor monday`s forecast for the
potential need for another small craft advisory.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 4 pm edt
friday for lez143>146.
small craft advisory from 2 am to 4 pm edt friday for lez147-
148.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 261026
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
626 am edt thu mar 26 2026

.key messages...

- very warm today with highs in the 70s and 80s. a 50-60% chance
for 80 degree highs exists mainly south of us-24. cooler air
is across the area between tonight and saturday night.

- there is a 90% chance for showers and storms this evening.
storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts, large hail,
heavy rain and tornadoes. the greatest severe weather threat
is between 5pm and 12am et. drier through the weekend.

- chances for rain return midweek into the end of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 237 am edt thu mar 26 2026

behind this morning`s system, the main question will be about if
we can generate any instability ahead of the evening
thunderstorm chance. a frontal boundary is already attempting to
saunter southward around 21z or so and so stratus will be hot on
any thunderstorms tail should they form along or just ahead of
the cold front. soundings indicate there is a cap, which appears
to hold for the morning into the afternoon and probably holds
on until large scale ascent can get here. the hrrr seems to
sprout areas of showers/storms as areas of a thermal gradient
push through, but the better large scale ascent waits to arrive
around 21z. we`ll also have to look for differential heating
boundaries that could be the focus for any pre-frontal
convection which could have a more discrete storm mode.

strong effective shear greater than 30 kts pairs with 1 to 2
thousand j/kg of cape to create an environment conducive to severe
thunderstorms. the eml re-establishes itself across the area during
the midday and afternoon hours, especially south of us-30 and west
of i-69. initial shear orientation is boundary-perpendicular
allowing cells to have the potential to be discrete. given helicity
values over 200 units, initial storms will be able to produce both a
tornado and, with the other severe parameters, large hail. there is
some uncertainty how long shear remains boundary-perpendicular so as
there may be a tendency for storms to congeal as shear becomes
boundary-parallel overtime, there still could be enough turning to
allow embedded vorticies within the line for more of a qlcs look.
this line continues shifting southeastward and as dew points reach
60+ degrees and 850 mb dew points surpass 10c, heavy rain will be
possible. training of storms will be possible, but it doesn`t look
mbe vectors will allow backbuilding so flooding may be less of a
factor with lower storm coverage and with the line moving southward
steadily. the line looks to vacate our area by 3 to 4z, but will
likely have some stratiform rain following on its backside. there
has been some indicate, too, that cold air could catch up to create
flurries, but the ingredients aren`t really there for an anafrontal
setup.

clouds dissipate friday afternoon as surface high pressure pushes in
behind a strong vort max, which pushes through behind the departing
cold front. highs fall back to the 40s for friday and saturday with
30s for lows thursday night and saturday night, 20s for lows friday
night.

then, for sunday and monday, a trough pushes in atop the ridge in
the west suppressing it. as a result, a warm front develops north of
the area by monday. highs reach the 70s for the next work week as
warm advection returns. strong gulf moisture advection ensues and
skies cloud up. as the warm front sags back southward with a strong
high pressure system moving into southern canada, waves of showers
and thunderstorms will become possible. the placement of this
baroclinic zone will decide where storms form. it could be just
north of our area. an attempt to push a cold front through the area
is made for the end of next week, but that could stall around our
area and cause times of rain and additional storms.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 622 am edt thu mar 26 2026

the couple areas of concern for these tafs will be the thunderstorms
that get underway later this afternoon and evening as well as the
stratus deck that forms behind them. as a 700 mb shortwave
approaches the area from n il around 21z, enough large scale ascent
is expected to be present to break the cap and caused thunderstorms
to erupt across the area up until around 3 or 4z. model trends have
adjusted slightly southward and quicker overnight with the strong
line of convection and any pre-frontal storm initiation that occurs
and so that could push it out of the area quicker. thunderstorms are
expected to have the potential to create heavy rain and so visby
reductions into ifr and lifr will be very possible. cigs are
expected to be in mvfr or ifr as this happens. once thunderstorms
leave expect a moderation into mvfr even by later friday night/early
friday morning.

additionally, gusty winds 25 to 30 kts will be possible this
afternoon as mixing slowly commences.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt friday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
625 am edt thu mar 26 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and taper off in
the evening hours. there is a slight risk of severe storms along and
south of the i-94 corridor, with all hazards (wind, hail, and
tornadoes) possible.

- sharply colder air arrives tonight and friday, followed by a
steady warming trend through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.aviation...

weak surface low pressure is forecast to lift along a southward
advancing cold front across the southern portions of metro detroit
and toledo late this afternoon and evening. moisture advection and
elevated instability will expand across southern michigan this
afternoon as this system approaches. this will result in an
expanding region of rain and embedded thunderstorms. rapid stratus
development is also forecast this afternoon with the moisture
advection. as the cold front advances south, shallow post frontal
cold air and residual low level moisture will lead to an expanding
region of ifr based status, the probabilities increasing from late
this afternoon into the evening.

dtw convection....scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the
airspace between 17z and 21z. there are indications in latest model
solutions that the thunderstorms will increase in coverage late this
afternoon/evening and organize into a linear fashion across the
southern portions of the airspace (across the toledo region) between
21z and 00z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs below 5000 ft this afternoon and tonight.

* moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 am edt thu mar 26 2026

discussion...

yesterday`s late-day warm advection surge allowed temperatures to
reach into the 60-65 degree range late in the day for areas along and
west of u.s. 23, as the 00z dtx sounding revealed a 925-mb
temperature of 11c. although it remains mild this morning
(40s/50s), the air mass remains dry and stable, as surface dew points
are mostly in the 30s. the primary focus of this forecast cycle
remains the potential for severe weather today and the subsequent
cold shot behind the frontal boundary tonight/friday.

model analysis (00z nam/hrrr/regional gem): the 00z suite shows high
confidence in the timing of the pre-frontal warm sector expansion.
925 mb temperatures are progged to continue to increase to +12c to
+14c by 18z over southern areas. the 00z nam continues to be the
most aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based
instability, bringing a narrow tongue of 800-1200 j/kg sbcape into
the i-94 corridor by 21z. caveat: the 00z nam is very sensitive to
dew point recovery. if 60f dew points fail to clear the ohio
border, the severe threat will remain largely elevated, favoring hail
over wind, as elevated mucapes look to exceed 1000 j/kg as well. at
the present time, one needs to look upstream all the way back to
missouri to find any dew points close to 60f.

the hrrr (00z) is slightly more tempered with instability due to
concerns over residual cloud debris from morning isentropic lift but
compensates with more robust convective organization along the
actual cold front; however, this occurs mostly south of the state
border. the regional gem (00z) provides a middle-ground solution,
highlighting a potent 850-mb jet of 45-50 knots. this creates a high-
shear/low-cape (hslc) environment where 0-6km bulk shear values
exceed 50 knots. straight-line hodographs suggest a primary damaging
wind threat, though low-level curvature in close proximity to the
surface low center tracking along or near the michigan border could
support isolated tornadoes if cells can remain discrete before
transitioning to a linear mode.

spc day 1 continues to highlight areas along and south of i-94 in
the slight risk. hazards: damaging winds (65+ mph), large hail
(2"+), and an isolated strong tornado threat remains, with the most
likely severe window between 3:00 pm and 8:00 pm. severe chances
quickly taper off north of i-94, but there could be a marginal
severe threat as far north of m-59, but most likely just hail with
steep mid level lapse rates.

a significant surface temperature drop is expected in the evening
hours from north to south, with brisk northerly winds kicking in.
fortunately, forecast soundings show a deep dry slot immediately
following the front, which should curtail post-frontal precipitation
before a changeover to snow occurs.

on friday, expect a blustery, raw day. highs will struggle to reach
40f. low-level lapse rates will be steep under the cold core, which
could result in "rogue" cellular flurries or graupel showers,
especially in the thumb region with fetch off lake huron. however, it
appears inversion heights will be too low and the mid-level dry slot
will be too much to overcome; consequently, the forecast will remain
dry for now.

the ecmwf ensemble remains in good agreement regarding the magnitude
of the cold air mass, but the heart of the cold air does not arrive
until friday night when 850-mb temps bottom out around -13c or so,
which is roughly two standard deviations below the climatological
mean for late march. nbm temperatures appear to be too warm for
friday night, and would expect most locations to dip into the teens.

surface high pressure slides to the south on saturday, allowing for
a quick return to southwesterly flow. however, the ecmwf ensemble
members still only indicating highs in the lower 40s coming off the
cold start.

the longwave pattern shifts toward a more zonal to even slightly
ridged configuration by early next week. global ensemble (gefs/eps)
clusters and canadian gdps suggest a significant warm-up by tuesday,
with another potential deep trough developing over the western us.
this setup often signals a return to active, springlike weather for
the great lakes by the middle of next week.

marine...

high pressure influence wanes today as a fast moving upper level
wave provides a much stronger wind field aloft, and eventually drags
a low pressure system through the great lakes. the system will also
force a strong cold front through the region with thunderstorms
developing along the frontal slope. locally higher winds/waves are
possible in some storms, and a few could intensify to meet
thresholds for marine weather statements and/or special marine
warnings. all convective hazards are possible in isolated fashion
(i.e. +34 knot gusts, +0.75 inch hail, waterspouts), particularly
during the evening hours for the southern waterways (lake st. clair
and western erie). post-frontal cooling will be stark, but a
decrease in low-level northerly flow should limit nocturnal mixed-
layer gustiness to below 30 knots. modest on-shore post-frontal
gradient winds suggest high confidence in small craft advisory level
waves, which remains in effect.

hydrology...

showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop thursday
afternoon ahead of a cold front sweeping through lower michigan.
consensus model guidance qpf totals generally between 0.25 and 0.75
inches through thursday evening, with the higher totals near the
southern michigan border.

while the broader river flood potential remains low due to
relatively high infiltration capacity from a recent dry spell and
current river levels sitting at or below normal for late march,
localized issues cannot be ruled out. the primary concern is for
urban areas and small streams south of the m-59 corridor, where high-
intensity rainfall rates within embedded thunderstorms could lead to
localized ponding or rapid rises. flash flood guidance (ffg) remains
high (6-hour ffg mainly above 2.0 inches), and current rainfall
projections are well below these thresholds. no significant
hydrologic impacts are expected at the main stem river forecast
points at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm edt friday for
lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt friday
for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.