Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
889
fxus61 kcle 171951
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
351 pm edt fri jul 17 2026

.what has changed...
there is now an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms saturday
afternoon and evening across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania, driven by straight-line wind potential.

&&

.key messages...
1) a few showers and storms may move across the area this
evening and tonight. greater potential for thunderstorms is
expected saturday afternoon and evening. some storms will be
severe on saturday, with damaging winds the main risk.

2) very warm temperatures persist through saturday as humidity
increases. a cold front brings cooler weather for sunday.

3) showers and storms are likely monday night and tuesday.

4) smoke continues to produce poor air quality and reduced
visibility across the area, but will exit to the east tonight
into saturday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface low
pressure will dive east-southeast across the great lakes and
into new england saturday and saturday night. a warm front will
lift east-northeast across the local area tonight ahead of the
system, followed by a cold front saturday evening.

the initial chance for showers/storms will be this evening and
tonight with the warm frontal passage across the area. large-
scale forcing is rather lacking tonight, but the combination of
the front, an increase in low-level warm air/moisture advection,
and an unstable airmass moving in behind the front should fuel
at least some hit/miss activity that moves east across the area
through the night. aside from moderate instability spreading in
tonight, not much supports a severe threat in our area with any
storms along the warm front. precipitable water values will
surge to over 2.00" with the warm frontal passage so any
thunderstorms will have impressive rain-rates, but coverage and
organization looks limited enough to avoid flash flood concerns.

we`ll break into the open warm sector by saturday morning, which
should allow any showers/storms with the warm front to exit east
early in the day. the greatest potential for storms will be
late in the day as the cold front approaches and moves through.
that said, the combination of heating/destabilization of a humid
and uncapped airmass and continued modest low-level warm
air/moisture advection may be enough for at least a few isolated
to widely scattered showers/storms to develop in our area in
the open warm sector by late morning or early afternoon. hi-res
models currently suggest a subtle low-level trough axis may
focus more numerous/organized pre-frontal storm activity near
southeastern portions of our area (i.e. canton-youngstown-
meadville) during the early-mid afternoon. the greatest forcing
arrives during the late afternoon/early evening with cold front
as the shortwave passes through the region and spreads the
right-entrance quadrant of an upper jet streak across the area,
bringing the most widespread/organized storm potential. storms
should quickly exit to the south late saturday evening/night,
though a trailing trough dropping off the lake a few hours
behind the front may bring scattered showers with it.

in terms of severity of storms on saturday, mid-level lapse
rates will be weak (generally <6.0c/km) though this will be
offset by strong heating of a very humid airmass, leading to
strong instability (2000-3000+ j/kg of mlcape) by mid to late
afternoon. pockets of mid-level dry air atop the moist,
strongly heated low-levels will contribute to fairly large dcape
values of 900-1200 j/kg. deep-layer shear will initially be
weak, but does increase to 30-40kt by the late afternoon and
evening as the shortwave makes its closest pass. flow will be
rather unidirectional, leading to rather modest amounts of
effective storm relative helicity in the 100-150 m2/s2. any
pre- frontal storms will likely initially be cellular before
gradually growing into small clusters or lines, with storms
along the cold front itself expected to develop just to our
north (or across northern portions of our area) and quickly grow
into clusters or lines.

damaging winds will easily be the most probable/widespread
severe hazard in that environment, with organized swaths of
more widespread wind damage possible with clusters or lines that
take shape. given the favorable environment and hi-res models
continuously showing widespread, fairly organized convection,
the spc has increased our threat of damaging winds to "enhanced"
(level 3 of 5). the potential for significant gusts (over 75
mph) is fairly low given somewhat marginal amounts of shear,
but can`t be entirely ruled out if we see a more robust bow echo
evolve across northeast oh or northwest pa. any initial cells
ahead of the front may pose an isolated risk for large hail
given the strong instability, especially if shear increases
enough for a supercell or two play out. the amount of shear is
marginal for a tornado threat, but there is just enough 0-3km
bulk shear for a qlcs-type tornado threat with bowing lines,
especially across northeast oh and northwest pa. any sustained
supercell would of course also need to be monitored for tornado
potential, though confidence in that scenario is lower. given
the very warm and moist environment, locally heavy rainfall will
also be a concern. storm motions of 30-40 mph (on average)
should limit flash flooding potential given our drier ground.
however, if any locations see repeated or perhaps brief training
storms a very localized flash flood threat can`t be fully ruled
out. the peak severe threat is generally expected to occur
between 3 pm and 9 pm from northwest-southeast across the area.

conditions will be most favorable to organized, severe
convection with the cold front late saturday afternoon/evening.
while confidence in some severe weather occurring is rather high
across our area, there is some uncertainty regarding a more
widespread severe threat. a solution such as that presented by
the 12z hrrr/3km nam in which pre-frontal convection is more
limited would support the more widespread severe threat
advertised in current outlooks and is currently the favored
solution. however, if pre-frontal convection becomes more
widespread earlier (such as the arw wrf shows) that could limit
the overall amount of severe weather somewhat.

key message 2...
after lows ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s tonight, highs
will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s on saturday as dew points
surge into the lower 70s. peak heat index values will largely
remain under heat advisory criteria of 100f, though will reach
the mid to upper 90s across much of the area, especially along
and west of the i-71 corridor. those with outdoor plans will
want to keep hydration/cooling in mind. a nice airmass change
behind the front, with lows dropping well into the 60s by sunday
morning as highs on sunday range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

key message 3...
a potent shortwave and associated surface low is expected to
pass just north of the great lakes monday night and tuesday,
pushing a cold front across the local area tuesday or tuesday
night. showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front
approaches and crosses the area. while any potential for severe
weather or flooding will come down to finer details that aren`t
clear yet at this range, this does look to be a fairly dynamic
system (for july) with some shear to work with.

key message 4...
the entire area continues to observe air quality ranging from
unhealthy to hazardous due to wildfire smoke this afternoon,
with visibilities mainly between 1 and 3 miles. smoke is
expected to gradually exit from west to east through tonight as
the warm front lifts through. it will likely take until some
point saturday morning to fully clear northwest pa. once the
smoke clears, a bit of smoke may return behind the cold front
sunday into monday. however, some rain occurring in the interim
where the fires are happening plus most of the smoke across the
great lakes getting cleared out over the next day or two should
lead to any smoke that returns sunday or monday being notably
less dense/impactful than what we`ve seen the last two days.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
dense smoke will maintain ifr visibilities at all terminals
through late afternoon before gradually improving from west to
east this evening and tonight, but it will take until daybreak saturday
morning to complete clear out of keri. otherwise, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a warm
front this evening and push east overnight. confidence is low on
any cells impacting a particular terminal, but they should be in
the vicinity of ktol and kfdy in the roughly 23 to 03z timeframe
and be in the vicinity of kcak, kyng, and keri in the roughly
05 to 10z timeframe. any shower or thunderstorm could produce
brief heavy rain and mvfr or lower if it impacts a terminal. dry
and vfr conditions are expected much of the morning through the
early afternoon until thunderstorms develop after the taf period
ahead of a cold front.

light and variable winds the rest of this afternoon and evening
will turn s to sw tonight, with sw winds increasing to 15-25
knots by late saturday morning through the afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a cold front saturday afternoon and evening. a few storms
could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts approaching 50
knots.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds on lake erie early tonight will turn
sw and quickly increase to 15-20 knots by daybreak saturday
behind a warm front. sw winds will increase to 15-25 knots by
saturday afternoon, especially in the central and eastern
basins, so a small craft advisory has been issued from 14z
saturday through 00z sunday. the sw direction will keep the
highest waves in the open waters, with nearshore waves in the 3
to 5 foot range from avon point to ripley. winds will turn n
behind a cold front saturday night and gradually decrease to
10-15 knots late, becoming ne at 5-10 knots sunday. winds will
quickly come around to sw at 5-10 knots sunday night and monday,
with sw winds increasing to 15-25 knots monday night and tuesday
ahead of another cold front, which will build waves to 3 to 5
feet. small craft advisories will likely be needed again at
that time. winds will turn nw behind the front for tuesday night
and wednesday while gradually decreasing.

visibilities will gradually improve on the lake this evening and
tonight from west to east as the smoke plume starts to move out,
but extended the dense smoke advisory from avon point to buffalo
through midnight. additionally, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms could bring locally high winds to 50 knots late
saturday afternoon and early evening as it progresses
southeastward across the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz003-
006>009-017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for paz001>003.
marine...dense smoke advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
080
fxus63 kiwx 172357
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
757 pm edt fri jul 17 2026

.key messages...

- smoke from canadian wildfires will continue to bring periods
of poor air quality and reduced visibility through at least
monday.

- slight chance for severe storms saturday afternoon and
evening. damaging winds and heavy downpours will be the main
threats.

- high swim risk conditions are expected along lake mi beaches
in berrien county, mi and la porte county, in by late saturday
afternoon and evening. moderate swim risk conditions are
expected earlier in the day. dangerous waves and currents are
expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 236 pm edt fri jul 17 2026

canadian wildfire smoke will continue to bring major air
quality impacts to the great lakes region for the next several
days. epa sensors across the area have been sampling very
unhealthy to hazardous pm2.5 due to the smoke. it is advised to
stay indoors as much as possible in these conditions. showers
and thunderstorms, coupled with southwest 850mb flow (then
becoming west tonight), will help to nudge the smoke slowly off
to the northeast and east. this will bring some relief for
tomorrow, but most areas are still expected to remain unhealthy
for sensitive groups. an upper level trough moving through the
gl tomorrow night will restrengthen the smoke conveyer belt, for
a lack of better words, and sunday we could have reinvigorated
smoke impacts. monday, weak low-level winds from high pressure
over lake erie will keep sunday`s smoke hanging around.

unfortunately, the nice break from severe weather looks to come
to an end. for today, a marginal risk for severe storms (strong
winds is the main threat where mixed layer lapse rates are the
strongest) will be in place for areas generally fort-wayne
southward. as of this writing, more robust convection has
initiated over lafayette, in and this will continue to work its
way east-northeast. there is plenty of instability for shower
and thunderstorm growth today, so we expect a good majority of
the cwa to get wetting rain.

the mid/upper level trough that eventually brings more smoke
down will be moving through ontario and quebec on saturday. a
cold front will drag south through the day. ahead of this, 850mb
flow will increase to around 25-30kt and cape values on the
order of 2500-3000 j/kg will promote a line of showers and
thunderstorms propagating south and southeast through the
afternoon to early evening hours. while damaging winds will be
the primary threat, low-level helicity will be marginally
adequate (75-100 m^2/s^2)) to produce a quick spin-up tornado.

the good news is that after tomorrow, we can say goodbye to
temps in the 90s for the upcoming week as we return to a more
normal temperature pattern. actually, well below average temps
are expected on wednesday-thursday with temps in the 70s. this
will be in the wake of a potent system that will bring the
chance for severe weather to our area monday and tuesday as the
storm prediction center has our area under a d4/d5 slight risk.
stay tuned to spc.noaa.gov for the latest on that.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 749 pm edt fri jul 17 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals for the most part,
outside of some mvfr haze/br potential late tonight/early sat am
at kfwa. chances for mvfr/ifr ceilings/vis are possible in any
heavier shower or thunderstorm activity sat aft/eve for both
sites (ksbn earliest). models suggest that the thicker smoke
will exit the area at least through sat as flow strengthens out
of the s-sw. could see some get trapped beneath the inversion
at kfwa, or at least see some brief br this morning before
sunrise. for handled with a tempo between 9-12z at kfwa.
otherwise, a cold front will drop from north to south through
the afternoon and early evening hours, with potential for severe
storms. have prob30s to account for this given it`s later in the
period, but have ksbn potential starting as early as 15-18z,
continuing as late as 21z and kfwa starting as early as 18z,
continuing through the end of the period. models disagree on the
pace of the fronts progression through our area, the earliest
being the rap. smoke may filter back in behind the front as
winds shift n-nw through the day/night.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ saturday
night for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...air quality alert until midnight edt saturday night for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...dense smoke advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...norman
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
917
fxus63 kdtx 172234
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
634 pm edt fri jul 17 2026

.key messages...

- the air quality alert remains in effect through saturday due to
persistence of wildfire smoke causing hazardous air quality.

- improvement of smoke concentration begins tonight as wind shifts
sw after passage of a warm front.

- isolated coverage of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
tonight. severe intensity is not expected.

- there is a marginal to slight risk of severe intensity
thunderstorms as coverage becomes numerous saturday afternoon and
evening.

- dry weather with cooler temperatures and lower humidity moves in
by sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a cluster of showers/thunderstorms immediately west of the terminals
are tied to a deep layer moisture and instability axis along a
northeastward advancing warm front. current observational trends and
latest meso analysis suggests this convection will advance across se
mi during the first couple hours of the taf period this evening. the
warm front will then lift northeastward across the terminals later
this evening. increasing southwest flow behind this front will drive
the near-surface smoke layer out of the area, leading to much
improved visibilities which will persist through saturday morning.
building instability in advance of a cold front on saturday will
provide the next chance for thunderstorms. the timing of the fropa
will dictate convective timing, with current indications suggesting
early to mid afternoon being the most likely time frame.

d21/dtw convection...the cluster of convection is forecast to impact
metro airspace through roughly 02z. the more numerous thunderstorms
are likely to be across the southern portions of the airspace.
linear convection is then forecast saturday afternoon, likely to
develop either over the airspace or just north and progress to
southeast east.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening. low tonight and
moderate on saturday.

* moderate in thunderstorms this evening and moderate saturday
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 pm edt fri jul 17 2026

discussion...

a mid-level trough passing from manitoba into northwestern ontario
is driving the development of a surface low that will affect local
conditions tonight into this weekend. its warm front is analyzed
from the western up down to southern lake michigan this afternoon,
and will continue to progress northeast through the evening into
tonight. the bulk of forcing for ascent will be tied to height falls
farther north, but as the front and moisture axis push through se mi
there should be enough surface convergence and unbalanced flow aloft
to trigger scattered showers and isolated storms later this
afternoon and evening. can`t rule out a stray stronger downburst
wind, but in general poor lapse rates and bulk wind shear aob 30 kt
will limit storm organization and strength. slow storm motion brings
potential for pockets of heavier rainfall. available smoke model
guidance does suggest gradually improving air quality conditions
tonight as southwest wind ushers out the worst concentrations of the
wildfire smoke. this improvement likely continues through early
saturday with prevailing wind direction remaining out of the
southwest.

the surface low treks across lake superior tonight then north of
georgian bay into quebec by tomorrow afternoon, its cold front
lagging behind and passing through the local area during the peak in
the diurnal cycle. it is unclear whether nocturnal convection will
hold together across northern lower during the morning hours, but
given strong frontal forcing the bulk of cams do support convective
initiation or reinvigoration across se mi between noon and 4pm. href
and refs ensemble progs highlight sbcape of 2000 to 2500 j/kg and
bulk wind shear of 25 to 30 kt increasing to around 40 kt as the
upper jet works south. this supports a band of more organized
convection with potential for stronger to severe storms. the bulk of
the shear will be within the lowest 0-3km which favors damaging wind
gusts as the main threat - this is corroborated by available hi-res
severe ml guidance. there is a secondary threat of large hail and an
isolated tornado if any discrete supercellular structures develop,
but this potential remains low. with pwat increasing near or above
1.75" any storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, but
progressive storm motion will limit a greater flooding threat.
storms are expected to exit south to ohio and lake erie by late
afternoon with drier air then filtering in behind the cold front.
descending parcel trajectories originating from the northern great
lakes will bring potential for the return of surface-level wildfire
smoke, but there is considerable spread among the latest solutions
regarding pm2.5 concentration.

high pressure builds directly into the region on sunday, promoting a
dry and more comfortable day with highs in the lower 80s. trends in
the smoke plume will need to be monitored, but northeast wind early
in the day suggests arrival of cleaner air from eastern ontario.
monday sees the return of southwest flow as the high departs east. a
shortwave dives across the great lakes monday night into tuesday,
bringing the next likely round of showers and thunderstorms. an
active pattern is possible through the rest of the week as a ridge
amplifies over the western conus, leaving the great lakes within
northwest flow with multiple rounds of shortwave activity.

marine...

still monitoring upstream convection associated with weak low
pressure systems approaching northern lower michigan and the lower
ohio valley. some of this activity should reach lake huron late this
evening and early tonight. latest hi-res models indicate a weakening
trend for these showers and thunderstorms, once they reach the
waterways. a warm front lifts into the central great lakes this
evening and overnight marking a south-southwesterly wind shift which
pushes the wildfire smoke plume back into canada, improving
visibilities. a secondary, and more robust, low pressure system
passes through the straits and across northern lake huron saturday
morning. this drags an attendant cold front through the region with
time, causing winds to veer northwesterly. pre-frontal
(southwesterly) gusts over saginaw bay are now expected to exceed 25
knots, therefore a small craft advisory is in effect. extensions are
possible for the rest of the lake huron nearshores with later
updates to account for stronger post-frontal gusts during the
afternoon hours. additionally, isolated brief gusts to gales cannot
be ruled out over central huron later on saturday, but confidence is
too low for a gale warning. high pressure then builds back into the
region late saturday and sunday supporting drier conditions and
prevailing winds below headline criteria for rest of the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense smoke advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz362-363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory from 3 am saturday to midnight edt saturday
night for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...dense smoke advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense smoke advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.