Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
637 pm est fri jan 30 2026

.what has changed...
overall, the forecast and key messages remain on track. cold
temperatures are still expected through this weekend and an
active weather pattern is possible during mid to late week.

&&

.key messages...
1) very cold weather persists through sunday night with subzero
minimum temperatures and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero
or colder expected. temperatures may approach record low values
on saturday morning. the cold weather will continue to pose a
significant risk of exposure to people and animals in addition
to damage to infrastructure.

2) there are intermittent light snow chances through saturday night
and monday/monday night. there may be some marginal travel
impacts with any repetitive snow shower activity.

3) there`s potential for an unsettled weather pattern mid to late
week next week. accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are
possible, although confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an arctic high will remain in place over the region over the
next couple of days, resulting in continued hazardously cold
temperatures especially overnight. tonight`s lows are expected
to fall well below zero with the coldest temperatures of 10 to
15 degrees below zero expected in the southern half of the
local area. climate sites have another shot at meeting or
exceeding record low temperatures early saturday morning (see
climate section below). winds will be relatively light
(generally 6 mph or less), although the light winds will still
manage to produce widespread wind chills in the -10 to -20
degree range. a cold weather advisory remains in
effect from 7 pm this evening to 11 am saturday morning. some
cirrus will likely be across portions of the area overnight into
early saturday morning which could allow for some insulation,
but locations that see prolonged clearing and typical cold spots
may experience low temperatures and wind chills that are
several degrees colder than currently forecast. with that being
said, any locations that meet extreme cold warning criteria
should be relatively localized and confidence in those exact
locations is too low to warrant the issuance of an extreme cold
warning.

during the day saturday, wind chills will remain near or a few
degrees below zero and highs will be in the teens. another cold
weather advisory may be needed saturday night into sunday morning;
temperatures will "only" be a few degrees below zero, but elevated
winds could produce wind chills as low as -15 degrees.

the persisting frigid temperatures will continue to produce possible
impacts on infrastructure including frozen and burst pipes and dead
car batteries. there will also be impacts on people and animals
that do not take necessary cold weather precautions. limit time
outdoors, wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and
hypothermia, and be sure that animals limit time outdoors.

temperatures will begin to trend warmer (and by warmer we mean a
bit less bitterly cold) next week with highs in the 20s
anticipated for the majority of the week. however, as mentioned
in the previous discussion, the continued subfreezing
temperatures may continue to produce impacts on infrastructure
through next week.

key message 2...
after a brief break in persistent snow today, light snow
chances will return to the local area tonight into saturday as a
trough pushes south across lake erie. precipitation will
largely be lake-enhanced, although the minimal open spots/cracks
in ice on lake erie will keep snowfall rates light. similar to
previous days, any snow that occurs could produce slippery
travel due to sub-freezing pavement temperatures. widespread
light snow showers may move east across the area monday and
monday night as a shortwave pushes east across the region with
similar minor impacts possible.

key message 3...
by the middle of next week, low pressure will move east across the
southeastern conus and possibly as far north as the ohio valley. the
deterministic ecmwf places the northern fringe precipitation shield
across the southern reaches of area during the middle of the week,
but the 12z deterministic gfs has shifted the low farther south.
overall, confidence in this system remains low given model
fluctuations and spread in the track of the low. will need to
monitor this system since a northward shift in the low could result
in accumulating snowfall and potential impacts, especially in
southern portions of the cwa.

guidance favors a more robust system dropping southeast out of the
great lakes friday with troughing persisting over the region into
the weekend. while it`s still 7+ days away and a lot will likely
change with synoptic pattern, it`s possible that this system
produces accumulating snowfall across the local area late this
week and potentially into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
surface trough drops in from the north tonight to bring mvfr
ceilings and very light snow showers chances in its wake with
just enough low level saturation in this arctic airmass that is
anchored in place. have added 6sm -shsn to most locations for
several hours at some point in the forecast, depending on
location. may need 5sm but will reevaluate with the 06z
issuance. winds northwest saturday 10kts after light and
variable tonight.

outlook...periodic non-vfr due to low clouds and/or snow
expected through saturday night. non-vfr possible again after
monday.

&&

.marine...
while lake erie is mostly ice covered, generally good marine
conditions are expected into next week. winds will be below 15 knots
over the weekend then increase to 10 to 20 knots on monday ahead of
a knots about clipper system crossing the upper great lakes. winds
will veer to northwest behind the associated weak cold front monday
night into tuesday. a system will track through the ohio valley
during the middle of next week which could result in a period of
enhanced ne winds.

ice will continue to thicken on lake erie over the weekend as an
arctic airmass remains over the region.

&&

.climate...
record cold low temperatures are possible on saturday morning.
here are the daily record cold low temperatures for january
31st:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 11 am est saturday for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...cold weather advisory until 11 am est saturday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...26
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 pm est fri jan 30 2026

.key messages...

- a period of heavy lake effect snow with rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour and poor visibility will impact la porte
county and extreme southwest berrien county tonight.

- snow totals and travel conditions will vary notably over small
distances. regardless of exact snow amounts, travel will be
hazardous within the heavy lake effect snow band.

- wind chills overnight and saturday morning near -10 to -15
away from lake effect clouds.

- temperatures warm into the 20s starting sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 222 pm est fri jan 30 2026

sagging upper-level trough has been a relentless light-snow producer
today. synoptic lift via the left exit region of a wrapped-up 500-
mb jet has been a contributing factor along with a low level
column within the dendritic growth zone. this activity
continues to fade south, now along and south of us 30, while the
main area of lake effect snow is over far northeast il.

this evening, attention turns to the northern lake michigan
where the last of the upper-level trough is working its way
south, sparking an area of light, synoptic, snow along with
streams of lake effect. we anticipate lake effect snow to shift
back to the east tonight and spill onshore over la porte and
berrien counties. while not quite a slam-dunk (cams continue to
waver), enough evidence points to a quick hitting dose of heavy
lake effect snow. as has been the case over il and far northwest
in today, very strong lift through a saturated dgz and
equilibrium levels approaching 8k ft (could be better), along
with upper-level support, indicate a high likihood of 1-2"
rates of fluffy snow. travel in this key transportation corridor
will become dangerous for a time overnight. berrien county was
considered for an advisory as well, but a very small sliver of
the county could be impacted by several inches of snow (e.g.,
grand beach, new buffalo, union pier). should the band shift
east into our area just long enough, totals will exceed the
advertised 2-4 inches. snow shifts west of la porte county after
daybreak and weakens.

one additional hazard of note tonight are wind chills of -10 to
-15. the area of interest is from putnam county ohio, southwest
to grant county indiana. incoming cloud cover with the
aformentioned trough decreases forecast confidence in a
forecast already right-at cold weather advisory criteria of
-15f wind chill. given the prolonged cold pattern, uncertain
duration, and saturday morning timing, have declined headlines
at this time.

the first week of february will see a couple of chances for
clipper systems to breeze through (monday and possibly
wednesday), followed by a larger storm system tracking through
michigan at the end of the week. high temperatures will
generally be in the 20s with low temperatures this weekend in
the single- digits at times, "warming" into the low-teens.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 639 pm est fri jan 30 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions expected at the terminals
tonight into saturday. ifr/lifr conditions are possible at ksbn
overnight with potential for a heavy lake effect snow band to
impact the terminal between 8-12z. light snow will taper off at
kfwa this evening before returning late tonight with a trough
moving through the area, with limited impacts expected. at ksbn,
we`ll see snow with the trough, however some of the guidance
also moves a very intense band of snow onshore as winds shift
west-northwest. most of the higher-res models quickly move the
band further southwest (and away from ksbn) again as the flow
becomes more n-ne, but others like the nam keep the band right
near ksbn for a time-possibly extending past 12z (prob30 in for
that possibility). for now, did maintain previous forecast of
1/2sm shsn between 8-11z to account for this impactful band.
snow potential diminishes beyond the early morning with upper
level ridging building in behind the exiting trough.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 6 am cst
saturday for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
549 pm est fri jan 30 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers impact the eastern thumb region tonight
into saturday morning with localized 1 to 3 inch accumulations.

- cold tonight/saturday morning and saturday night/sunday morning
with wind chill ranging between 0 and 15 below.

- sunshine on sunday leads to temps climbing into the lower 20s,
with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

&&

.aviation...

a surface trough will push from north to south across the area
tonight and will be accompanied by an increase in low level
moisture. recent guidance suggests primarily low end vfr based
clouds with some areas of mvfr. given expected increase in moisture
depth and weak forcing, areas of light snow or flurries remain in
the forecast, mainly during the first half of the night. there are
indications that a little bit of additional moisture flux off lake
huron will support more widespread mvfr based clouds on saturday,
especially during the first half of the day.

for dtw...there will be a couple opportunities for intervals of
light snow or flurries. one will be focused between 04z and 08z
associated the sfc trough passage and the other will be late sat
morning associated with any moisture flux off lake huron. little to
no snow accumulations are expected in both instances.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 pm est fri jan 30 2026

discussion...

a zonally oriented upper shear axis is passing southward toward the
stateline with a trailing bubble of subsidence offering a window of
sunny skies for much of the area this afternoon. mid-level clouds
are already arriving across the thumb and mid mi behind this dry
pocket as deeper moisture accompanies the next weak shortwave
impulse that tracks south tonight. temperatures currently in the
teens are forecast to drop to around zero by late evening for areas
that stay cloud free - mainly south of m-59. the inbound cloud then
helps insulate and hold temps mainly in the single digits overnight.
steady but light northwest gradient wind is projected to hold wind
chill in the -5 to -10 range tonight, so no cold weather advisory
was issued. refs hourly probabilities indicate <10% chance for wind
chill at or below -15. href is slightly more aggressive with wind
magnitude, and shows a 20% chance for those clear areas late this
evening, and up to 40% chance pre-dawn saturday morning as the wind
picks up slightly.

as a surface trough sinks south across the region overnight,
northeast wind over lake huron will cause the stalled lake effect
snow band to migrate toward the eastern thumb. despite significant
ice coverage in the nearshore area, the bulk of model guidance does
brush the coast with this band, so kept high pops tonight.
convective depth is modeled to be near or below 5 kft and favorable
wind direction lasts into early saturday afternoon, supportive of
several inches of accumulation. model 925mb omega fields generally
target the huron city/port hope/harbor beach vicinity around and
after midnight, then spread south toward the port sanilac/lexington
area early saturday morning where the forcing stalls before
weakening during the afternoon.

highest confidence in accumulation up to 2 to 3 inches is positioned
along the shoreline between harbor beach and lexington, per the 12z
refs guidance. this ensemble also suggests potential for several
inches of snow for the port huron area on saturday, but this carries
lower confidence as most guidance is more transient with any banding
that far south. refs also offers a 10% probability for localized
totals up to 4 inches in the aforementioned area by saturday night,
with spotty coverage indicating a very localized instance should it
occur. elsewhere across southeast mi, mainly just flurries and light
snow showers expected overnight. some areas may see a dusting, and
highest potential for around a half inch will be inland areas of the
thumb.

a period of height rises saturday into sunday allows a surface ridge
to build into the area, promoting dry conditions apart from any lake
effect snow along the eastern thumb on saturday. lake effect clouds
will remain pervasive even inland much of the day saturday before
clearing out saturday night, setting the area up for another cold
night. lows are projected to range between 5 and -5, and a light
gradient results in wind chill in the -5 to -15 degree range early
sunday morning. burgeoning warm advection on sunday with a boost
from abundant sunshine within the ridge axis will send temps into
the 20s by sunday afternoon - for the first time since jan 22 for
most of the area.

a shearing shortwave brings a chance of light snow on monday, though
models have generally trended drier over the past 24 hours. with
weak ascent associated with this wave, areas that see snow would be
most likely to receive less than a half inch. colder air builds back
in monday night into tuesday as arctic high pressure spreads across
the midwest, but highs in the 20s remain favored through the week.
there is growing confidence for widespread accumulating snow friday
and friday night, with latest nbm showing a 30 to 50% chance for
over 2 inches of snow across the area.

marine...

the great lakes remain under broad upper troughing allowing another
mid-upper wave to dive through the region this evening. result of
which is a shift in winds from northwesterly to north-northeast by
tonight with minimal weakening as sustained winds hold 15-20kts and
gusts 20-25kts. northern edge of plains high pressure then expands
over the central great lakes sunday bringing light (<15kt) winds. a
weak clipper arrives late day monday but aside for scattered light
snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts with accompanying winds
holding at or below 20kts. another high dropping out of the upper
midwest then follows for midweek.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.