Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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150
fxus61 kcle 040603
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
203 am edt sat apr 4 2026

.what has changed...
slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather remains for today with
damaging winds as the primary threat and a secondary threat of quick
spin-up tornadoes. additionally, a heavy rain and flooding threat is
possible across the majority of the region as additional rainfall is
likely.

&&

.key messages...
1) there will be another chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening into the early overnight hours. minor
flooding is also possible with heavy rainfall rates.

2) there will be a pattern shift starting sunday through the middle
of the with much cooler temperatures across the region with a few
periods of precipitation possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
the frontal boundary that brought showers and thunderstorms to
the region on friday will continue to lift north through this
morning as a warm front. this will put the majority of the
region within the warm sector of a parent low pressure system
that will be entering the great lakes region from the west.
temperatures throughout the day will climb into the mid to upper
70s with some areas in eastern ohio touching the low 80s. dew
points will also be on the rise up into the 60s with sufficient
southwesterly flow across the region. as a result, there will be
plenty of instability with mlcape values around 1000-1500 j/kg
and 0-3km lapse rates around 7.0 c/km. though, despite these
factors, there will be minimal forcing during the afternoon, so
expecting only a few thunderstorms ahead of the front and
forcing that will come with it. as the front approaches, low
level winds will begin to strengthen with a low level jet of
around 40-50 kts and 0-1km shear around 15-20 kts. lcl levels
will also be less than 1km which will support the chance for a
few tornadoes to quickly spin up with the front. with all of
this, the storm prediction center has continued the slight risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather driven mainly by the damaging
wind potential and a secondary threat of tornadoes. the window
for severe weather and frontal passage will begin in the western
counties around 4-5pm and move through region exiting to the
east around midnight.

along with the severe weather threat, heavy rain and flooding will
also be possible with the showers and thunderstorms. precipitable
water values will be around 1.25" and sounding climatology for iln
and pit have these values upwards of the 90% percentile. qpf for the
day will be around 0.50-0.75" on top of the rainfall that has fallen
last night and earlier this week. locally higher amounts are
possible within thunderstorms with higher rainfall rates. additional
rises on area rivers and streams are likely tomorrow evening.

key message #2:
as the cold front from saturday evening exits to the east, the
surface low will move northeastward into eastern canada and a
much cooler air mass will move in behind. the upper level trough
will be slow to exit and stay situated across eastern canada
down into northeastern conus. this will keep temperatures cool
with persistent northwesterly flow through tuesday night. highs
on sunday through tuesday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
with overnight lows down into the mid 20s to low 30s. generally,
dry weather is expected across much of the region, though a
shortwave feature will move in from the northwest on monday
through tuesday that will bring precipitation chances for mainly
north central and eastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.
precipitation will stay mainly as rain on monday and will
transition to a wintry mix and wet snow as a cold front passes
through monday night. snow showers are likely to continue across
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania into tuesday as
ridging will build in and moisture diminishes. the upper level
trough moves out to the east as well and low to mid level flow
shifts to be out of the southwest and temperatures will begin to
warm. to end the week, high temperatures will begin to warm to
be above average.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
the first round of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
gradually lift northeastward through all terminals early this
morning. this will bring periods of mvfr conditions, with ifr
possible in the heaviest downpours. this activity should clear
the kfdy, kmfd, kcak, and kyng areas by 09 to 10z, but it will
take until 10-12z to clear ktol and kcle, with keri likely to
hold onto some showers until 13z.

a lull is still expected much of the day today before showers
and thunderstorms spread back across the region from west to
east from mid afternoon through mid evening ahead of a cold
front. these will first reach ktol and kfdy around 18-20z and a
keri to kyng line by 00z. gusty winds and heavy rainfall
leading to periods of mvfr and ifr are likely with these
thunderstorms. showers will linger for several hours through the
first half of the night, so cigs will be slow to improve.

generally e winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will turn s
and increase to 10-15 knots by mid morning as the warm front
lifts north. winds will turn sw and further increase to 15-25
knots, with gusts to 30 knots at times, this afternoon before
turning w and gradually decreasing behind the cold front this
evening.

outlook...non-vfr with low ceilings may linger through sunday.
non- vfr may return monday and monday night in rain and/or snow
showers.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are currently 10-15 knots out of the east to
northeast and will shift to be out of the south by this afternoon
with the western basin increasing to around 15-20 knots. a strong
cold front will move across the region this evening quickly shifting
winds to out of the west by late tonight. stronger winds may be
possible within showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves
through winds will stay elevated through sunday with sustained
winds of 15-20 knots and waves increasing to 3-5 feet. a small craft
advisory will be needed for early sunday morning through monday
morning when winds and waves begin to subside. winds will increase
again tuesday with a cold front passing through the region and will
likely warrant another small craft advisory. high pressure will
begin to build into the region on wednesday and quieter marine
conditions are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...garuckas
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 040546
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
146 am edt sat apr 4 2026

.key messages...

- more rain and storms are expected through today. heavy rain
is possible west of i-69 where a flood watch remains in
effect.

- severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds are
possible east of i-69 this afternoon and early evening.

- cooler and drier weather returns sunday-wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 146 am edt sat apr 4 2026

our cwa is currently in a relative lull in activity as initial surge
of isentropic ascent and associated convection lifts e/ne. surface
warm front remains just south of our cwa and as expected, much of
the earlier activity remained elevated with just some small hail and
isolated heavy rain. better instability remains locked to our south
for now with easterly low level flow over our entire cwa. that will
change by later this morning though as upstream trough approaches
and southwesterly llj ramps up. surface warm front will begin
inching north around 08-09z but midlevel lapse rates are only around
6 c/km and even mucape values struggle to get much above 1000 j/kg.
surface warm front will also struggle to fully lift north until
after sunrise. expect showers and storms currently over il to
blossom and lift ne into our nw half after 08z but isolated heavy
rain will be the only real concern given relatively stable
conditions, particularly in the low levels. our nw cwa has the best
chance of seeing an inch or two of rain through the morning but
luckily this area missed out on the heavy rain the night of the
31st. still, isolated pockets of heavy rain and flooding will remain
possible roughly 08-14z and no changes to the flood watch planned.
attention then turns to the cold front set to swing through the area
later today. latest hi-res continued earlier trend of a slightly
slower frontal passage that would allow areas east of i-69 time to
destabilize. mlcape values climb to around 1500 j/kg with 30 kts of
0-6km shear. linear forcing, some modest dcape and strong,
unidirectional flow will favor damaging straight-line winds and
wouldn`t be surprised at all to see some impacts east of i-69 17-
23z. for areas west of i-69, conditions look to remain stable with
just some light-moderate rain at times through the day. not
expecting heavy rain but it won`t take much to cause problems given
extremely saturated soils and will therefore keep the watch going
until 5pm for now. later shifts may be able to trim or cancel once
the dust settles with morning rainfall.

rain exits our far se around 03z this evening and a welcome reprieve
from active weather sets up for early next week. much cooler
(seasonable) temps arrive tonight with a reinforcing shot of cold
air mon into tue. lows mon night dip well into the 20s and highs on
tue remain in the low/mid 40s. mainly dry conditions are expected
but sunday night into mon could feature some very light rain (maybe
even a few snowflakes) as a shortwave/cold front pass. some low
chances of rain arrive later next week as mid/upper flow flattens
and eventually returns to southwesterly. however, best chances
appear north of our area until next weekend, allowing time for
fields to slowly dry and river levels to recede.&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 130 am edt sat apr 4 2026

predominantly mvfr/ifr conditions at the terminals this period,
with breaks to vfr possible overnight. e-ne winds will shift
south through the morning, then become west-northwest by late
afternoon, early evening. the bulk of the precipitation is north
and east of the terminals, with the exception of some minor
showers just southwest of kfwa (near khhg/kmzz/kgus). guidance
re: evolution tonight is all over the place for both sites-with
some developing additional convection near the warm front (south
of kfwa) and lifting it north into ksbn, others mostly dry and
vfr until the cold front gets closer. ksbn is most likely to see
convection, however right now it`s focused just west and north
of the terminals. did bring in a tempo from 9-13z as the warm
front lifts into the area and the cold front is just to the
northwest near lake mi. at kfwa- most guidance remained vfr/mvfr
through the overnight, but current observation suggests around
600-800ft. have a tempo for now, as i`m not certain how long
this will persist. most of the surrounding sites are mvfr/vfr.
have a prob30 from 9-12z for potential convection along the
front as it approaches, but it may end up being showers and
perhaps some br/fg (some models drop to 1/2sm at times, but left
out for now given uncertainties). the cold front moves through
tomorrow afternoon/evening for kfwa, and this morning/early
afternoon for ksbn-which will bring a more steady period of
heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms (especially at kfwa given
it`s arriving in peak heating).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through this afternoon for inz005>009-012>015-017-
018-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...flood watch through this afternoon for miz078>080-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 040748
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
348 am edt sat apr 4 2026

.key messages...

- widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms are expected
today.

- chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development this
afternoon, favored along or south of i-94.

- below normal temperatures sunday through early next week.

&&

.discussion...

occluded low pressure system now over northern illinois and southern
wisconsin will continue to progress across northern lower michigan
this afternoon before departing into eastern ontario and quebec by
late tonight. progression of the low has resulted in numerous rain
showers with some embedded thunderstorms across se mi with shallow
isentropic ascent along an advancing warm front. isolated
thunderstorms with heavy downpours remain possible through the
morning hours, capitalizing on modest mucape, but activity remains
elevated noting the sharp inversion in the low levels with the 00z
raob. the 40+ knots llj on the southern flank of the low will result
in extremely efficient moisture transport with pw values around 1.40
inches, which if verified would fall outside record values for early
april per local sounding climatology. moisture convergence with
additional forcing ahead and along of a cold front will bring
widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening. a lull in activity will be likely across the metro region
and down into the mi/oh border later this morning, with prolonged
rain chances setting up through the tri-cities, where the low and
occluded front lies. this will coincide with the higher rainfall
totals, as described in the hydrology section.

latest 12z data highlights a small window for some isolated strong
to severe storms from roughly 18z (2pm) to 22z (6pm), favored along
or south of i-94, where surface based cape briefly wedges in ahead of
the cold front. href mean cape values range from around 800 j/kg
down to the mi/oh border and upwards to 300 j/kg across the metro
region. hodographs are relative straight from 0-3km owing to the
unidirectional winds. any type of development just ahead or along the
cold front could have some better structure with some bowing that
would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts with localized gust
potential to around 60 mph. ml-output highlights a slightly elevated
chance for tornado probabilities within the same area -- 0-3 km
shear vector orientation is poor relative to the projected storm
motion and 0-1km hodographs are not conducive to tornadogenesis.
however, cannot rule out some highly localized streamwise vorticity
driven by backed surface winds along the marine layer interface. any
overachievement of instability could expand the footprint for strong
to severe potential into the north metro region through port huron as
highlighted in the latest swody1, but confidence in this expanded
footprint is low.

the strong cold front moves through by the late evening, ending all
rain chances while advecting in much cooler air. lows drop into the
30s sunday morning, which paves the way for below normal
temperatures to last through the early week period. the next likely
chance for some wintry precipitation then enters on monday as a
series of shortwaves arrive across the great lakes. morning
temperatures in the 30s bring the chance for melting snow to a
rain/snow mix. temperatures warm up into the 40s by the afternoon
bringing increasing chances for rain, but steep lapse rates and lower
freezing levels could bring some graupel with any convective based
showers. a strong high pressure builds in tuesday which effectively
ends any precipitation chances. clearing skies does bring what will
likely be the coldest temperatures of the week, with lows in the 20s
and highs holding in the 30s to low 40s tuesday.

&&

.marine...

easterly wind increases this morning ahead of a deepening low
pressure system tracking in from the mid-mississippi valley. 20 to
25 kt winds with gusts to 30 kt are forecast today, with the highest
wind magnitude across northern lake huron where fetch is maximized.
brief gusts to 35 kt gales will be possible at times in this area
mainly between 8am and 2pm, but confidence is too low for a gale
warning. showers and thunderstorms overspread the area today, some
of which may be strong to severe in the south. as the center of the
low reaches the straits this evening, wind direction veers around to
southwest and remains gusty to around 20 to 25 kt. strong cold
advection follows this system on sunday with gusts of 25 to 30 kt
likely through the day. a gale watch was considered for northern
lake huron on sunday for 35 kt gales, but confidence remains below
criteria at this time. small craft advisories have been issued for
the lake huron nearshore waters and additional advisories are
possible for lake st. clair and western lake erie for sunday. the
gradient relaxes monday causing wind magnitude to weaken, then a
series of clipper systems bring cooler air and chances for snow
showers monday and tuesday.

&&

.hydrology...

several rounds of scattered to widespread rain with embedded
isolated thunderstorms continues through the morning hours. a lull
in precipitation will be likely across southern michigan, before a
cold front then brings a line of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. the tri-cities and northern
thumb will experience longer residence time for precipitation today
given the track of the low pressure system. this brings increasing
probabilities for local totals to achieve or exceed 1", with the
current forecast highlighting possibly totals between 1 to 1.5"
across the tri-cities and northern thumb.

for locations south, basin averages range between a half-inch to
three-quarter inches. however, any thunderstorm activity will be
capable of producing localized total nearing or exceeding 1".
several river flood warnings are in effect across the saginaw river.
localized flooding in low-lying or flood prone areas remain possible
with any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1202 am edt sat apr 4 2026

aviation...

convection is starting to spread north of the state line as of 04z,
and should continue to fill in and expand in coverage while the
forcing works northward early in the forecast for a few hours.
scattered showers are still possible through the early morning,
though confidence is lower that they will remain widespread enough
across detroit to remain impactful. mbs and fnt will be under the
elevated front through mid mi longer today which could keep them
embedded in showers early saturday morning through the afternoon
cold frontal passage. ifr cigs for several hours in the morning
afternoon should get washed out with the second main band of showers
and storms in the afternoon. these storms could be strong to severe.
easterly winds tonight will flip to the southwest tomorrow ahead of
the cold front and eventually westerly later in the afternoon behind
the cold front.

for dtw...two main windows for convection to watch. the first will
be overnight from 05-09z as a warm front lifts north. there is a
chance for small hail, but severe weather is not expected. after a
potential lull in activity in the late morning/early afternoon the
cold frontal band of storms will pass eastward from about 17-21z.
these storms could reach severe limits as we lie on the extreme
western edge of the slight risk area.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and saturday.

* moderate for thunderstorms overnight. moderate saturday
afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt sunday
for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt sunday
for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......tf
hydrology....am
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.