Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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734
fxus61 kcle 111133
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
733 am edt sun oct 11 2026

.what has changed...
the axis of heavier rain with this system has trended to the east
and forecast rain amounts will be much lower for today. removed
the mention of thunderstorms for today.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain amounts associated with the remnants of isaias have trended
much lower. no significant impacts from this system are expected in
the local area today.

2) near record high temperatures are forecast for tuesday ahead of a
cold front. the front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and evening for eastern portions of
the area.

3) a strong cold front will bring the coldest air of the season on
friday. some locations may experience the first fall freeze over the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the remnant low associated with isaias has taken a track that
is farther to the east than previously forecast, through eastern
tennessee towards the central appalachians. the axis of deep
moisture is to the east of the track and is primarily focused
across west virginia and pennsylvania which is where the heavier
rain is going to occur. rainfall overnight has been quite
light, with a quarter inch or less and many areas receiving a
tenth of an inch or less. areas located east of i-77 could still
see an additional half inch of rain while amounts are going to
range from 0.10-0.25 elsewhere. the upper level closed low is
displaced to the west of the surface low and will track
northeast through the ohio valley today. this will maintain some
shower activity but dry air in the mid levels will be a
limiting factor and cut-back significantly on rainfall amounts.
also removed thunder for today as we have seen only one strike
south of our area overnight. a minimal amount of elevated
instability remains in our southern counties but the better
forcing continues to shift east.

some locations across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
are starting to see winds gusting around 20 mph where the
gradient is the tightening up. we still believe a few stronger
gusts could occur for northern portions of erie pennsylvania
where the southeasterly wind direction is favorable for enhanced
downsloping. gusts of 30-40 mph remain possible through mid
morning. abundant cloud cover is expected today and temperatures
will peak in the 60s.

key message 2...
an upper level ridge quickly builds north behind the departing
trough on monday. at the surface, a ridge will build east across the
area with southwesterly winds and warm advection kicking in
across northwest ohio during the afternoon. highs on monday
range from about 70 in the east to 80 in the west. the
anomalously warm airmass airmass with 850mb temperatures of
nearly 20c will be in place on tuesday ahead of a cold front
settling south across the region. highs on tuesday may tie or
surpass multiple records across northwest and north central
ohio. see the climate section below for details.

chances of rain have slowed down on tuesday with a slight chance
across lake erie tuesday morning and then pushing inland late
tuesday as a shortwave moves through the flow aloft and pushes a
cold front south of lake erie late afternoon and evening.
chances of thunderstorms look focused across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. some minimal instability is forecast to
develop ahead of the front with dewpoints in the lower 60s. may
need to keep an eye on any thunderstorms that can develop given
a stronger wind field with shear in the 0-6km layer of 45-55
knots.

key message 3...
by late this week, models are in agreement that a strong trough will
drop south out of canada ushering in the coldest air of the season.
the front looks to arrive on friday with cold air filtering into the
region through saturday. there are some noteworthy differences in
the long range pattern by the weekend as the ecmwf does not phase
the canadian trough with an upper level low moving out of the rocky
mountains and is more progressive with the colder air quickly
shifting east. the 00z gfs and canadian both indicate there will be
phasing with the upper low which results in a slower trough and
perhaps lake effect precipitation. will need to monitor trends as
large spreads currently exist in temperatures based on timing. it is
possible that we could see frost and freeze conditions next weekend,
especially if high pressure ends up overhead on saturday night.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
mvfr and ifr ceilings have moved in from the south this early
this morning. ceilings will become ifr at all terminals by mid
morning and persist through the taf period. scattered rain
showers are expected from kmfd eastward and will taper off west
to east through the afternoon. lingering drizzle and mist may
lower visibility this evening. after 06z tomorrow, patchy fog
is possible for kmfd, ktol, and kfdy though will be conditional
on how quickly ceilings clear out. confidence is low in
visibility less than 2sm impacting terminals.

winds will be out of the east, 080-130, at 8-13 knots across
the region into the morning before weakening to around 5-10
knots. keri will have a more of a southeasterly, 130-150, wind
and with downsloping, could see gusts upwards of 20 knots
through 17z. winds will gradually back to be out of the
northeast, 020-050, during this afternoon and remain 5-10 knots.
after 00z, winds will shift to be more northwesterly, 310-340,
and weaken to less than 5 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected in low ceilings sunday night into
monday, with improving conditions from west to east throughout
monday. non-vfr possible tuesday and wednesday in
showers/thunderstorms associated with a cold front.

&&

.marine...
southeast winds are starting to increase in the nearshore waters
from avon, oh to ripley, new york with speeds of 15-25 knots. the
window of stronger winds will be short lived and expect to be able
to let the small craft advisory expire as planned at 8 am this
morning. winds shift around to the northeast later today but are
expected to generally be light.

two cold front are expected to cross lake erie this week with
impactful conditions. the first is on tuesday evening when a cold
front with winds of 15-20 knots shifts onshore. waves of 2 to 5 feet
will be possible for a few hours behind the front on tuesday night
and a small craft advisory may be needed east of geneva-on-the-lake.
by late this week, a much stronger cold front looks to cross lake
erie in the friday time frame. winds are forecast to reach 30 knots
with potential for a gale event. the strength and track of this late
week system will be monitored over the coming days.

&&

.climate...
temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
northwest and north central ohio on tuesday. records for october 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.


date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...23
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 111045
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
645 am edt sun oct 11 2026

.key messages...

- a few light showers may occur in areas mainly along and east
of interstate 69 this morning.

- warm on monday and tuesday with highs generally in the 80s.

- low chances (10-30%) for a few showers and storms late monday
night into tuesday morning north of the toll road.

- additional chances (40-60%) of showers arrives wednesday into
thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 am edt sun oct 11 2026

upper low from remnants of tc isaias centered across western tn with
the bulk of the moisture surging northeast. across the area,
inverted trough/weak deformation zone has allowed for rather
lackluster development of showers with a few spots seeing trace
amounts or maybe a few hundredths. while a small window still exists
over the next 6 to 9 hours for a bit more coverage, doesn`t look
overly promising with pops lowered into chc range. any precip should
exit by afternoon, but clouds are likely to linger in eastern areas
which will limit high temperatures in these areas.

925 mb moisture will be slow to depart this evening and into the
overnight hours. if clearing can happen fast enough overnight in
eastern areas, overnight lows should drop below crossover temps with
at least some patchy fog developing. although these factors seem
logical, lack of rainfall may limit the boundary layer moisture
somewhat. will leave patchy mention for now.

yet another strong surge of waa commences monday and tuesday ahead
of a wave. main sfc low tracks north of the area with a cool front
trying to move into northern areas, which will bring somewhat of a
temp gradient with temps well in the 80s south and 70s north. given
the low track will be north and moisture somewhat limited, any low
end pops will be confined mainly in lower mi. the frontal boundary
will drift south wed into thur which may bring slightly better
chances for showers as waves travel west to east. models continue to
vary on whether northern and southern stream troughs will phase with
gfs/canadian phasing while ec keep main southern stream wave cutoff
to the west. this not only brings uncertainty to precip chances, but
also the degree of caa in the wake of the cold front on friday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 645 am edt sun oct 11 2026

mvfr ceilings will continue through the morning at ksbn and
through the afternoon at kfwa as tropical moisture plume moves
across the region. brief ifr is also possible at kfwa based on
forecast guidance and upstream obs. confidence is lower at ksbn
as they are right on the edge of the better low level moisture.
clearing skies expected at both terminals by the evening and
this will set the stage for some possible fog at kfwa given
light winds and residual near-surface moisture. confidence in
dense fog is low given high degree of variability in the
guidance but worth at least an mvfr br mention for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 110945
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
545 am edt sun oct 11 2026

.key messages...

- light rain across southeastern half of the forecast area this
morning and early afternoon.

- brief period of dry weather monday.

- scattered shower and thunderstorm chances monday night-tuesday.

- more typical fall weather mid to late week.

&&

.aviation...

northwestern edge of the remnants of isaias have begun lifting
through the detroit terminals early this morning bringing with it
mvfr falling to ifr ceilings. light showers persist mainly over the
southern half of the area (ptk south) supporting periods of modest
vsby reductions toward high mvfr before tapering off early afternoon
as the low shifts further east. even after rain chances end, low
level moisture is slow to peel back east keeping ifr-mvfr cigs in
place across the south through this evening. ceiling improvements
expected by early tonight as low cloud vacates however this offers a
shot at areas of fog development early monday morning- currently
looking mainly south of fnt. there has been enough consensus amongst
high-res model guidance to introduce fog/mist mentions focused over
the detroit/ptk terminals.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 343 am edt sun oct 11 2026

discussion...

moisture associated with the remnants of isaias is lifting northward
into southeast michigan this morning. the high based cloud cover
will transition to thicker lower clouds through the morning and carry
through the bulk of the day. while the deeper gulf moisture holds
off to the south, rain showers will be supported through the morning
hours and be focused generally across the southeast half of the cwa.
rain amounts expected to be light. overcast skies for most of the
area will help keep daytime highs today down in the 60s, though parts
of the saginaw valley may make a run up into the low 70s as thicker
low clouds may not make it that far north as high clouds pull east
during the afternoon. remnant moisture will pull east throughout the
afternoon with a period of mid-upper level dry air filtering into
southeast michigan tonight into monday. forecast soundings show a
developing subsidence inversion tonight with dewpoints lingering in
the mid 50s will set the stage for at least some patchy fog
development prior to sunrise tomorrow morning.

a low amplitude ridge will take up a short residence time over
michigan tomorrow allowing for a dry period through the afternoon.
passing of the ridge axis early in the day will lead to increasing
southwest flow and associated warm advection with temperatures at
850mb climbing to around 15c. this will help daytime highs push into
the mid-upper 70s and possibly topping 80 degrees in some locations.

troughing develops over the intermountain west monday and tuesday
with downstream southwest flow increasing atop a frontal zone
stretching from the central plains into the midwest. as larger scale
ascent becomes more favorable with help from the increasing llj, it
will trigger a weak low pressure system along the frontal zone that
will move across the western great lakes states and drive a cold
front through the central great lakes on tuesday. this will bring a
stretch of increased precipitation chances monday night through
tuesday. general thunderstorms chances will exist during this time
within a modestly sheared (~40kts of 0-6km bulk shear) and weakly
unstable environment (mid-level lapse rates 6-7 c/km) ahead of the
approaching cold front.

cold air advection will ensue behind the front wednesday night
through thursday as 850mb temperatures drop by about 10c pulling
daytime highs back down towards mid-october averages. expect daytime
highs in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s for the late half of
the work week. periodic chances for lake induced showers will be
possible wednesday to thursday morning associate with northerly flow
that will also cause higher coverage hanging around as a high
pressure tracks east across the northern lakes. canadian troughing
then develops late week a should bring a return of widespread
precipitation thursday night into friday with a much colder airmass
expected over the weekend.

marine...

remnants from hurricane isaias will move in through the ohio valley
this morning before departing into new england tonight. wind speeds
around 20 knots across lake huron will dwindle through the day as
this system exits. light rain showers will be possible across
southern lake huron and locations south as this system approaches
the southern great lakes. a ridge of high pressure will then briefly
fill in tomorrow which will back winds to the southwest. winds stay
light for most locations with localized higher gust potential around
20 knots for northern lake huron. a low pressure system and
subsequent cold front move through tuesday and wednesday, bringing
the next chance for rain and a low chance for isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...aa
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.