Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
495
fxus61 kcle 101953
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
353 pm edt tue mar 10 2026

.what has changed...
severe thunderstorms remain a concern, especially overnight
tonight. our wind gust forecast continues to trend upward for
friday`s potent clipper-type low pressure system.

&&

.key messages...
1.) periods of active weather are expected through wednesday night.
this includes the potential for severe thunderstorms, especially
tonight into wednesday, and isolated flash flooding.

2.) variable temperatures and additional periods of unsettled
weather are expected this thursday through next week tuesday. this
includes the expectation for at least advisory-criteria wind gusts
on friday.

&&

.discussion...

key message #1:

cyclonic sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through wednesday night as a primary
mid/upper-level trough deepens and approaches our region from the
west. on the synoptic-scale and at the surface, a strong and wavy
front extended generally ne`ward from the southwestern great lakes
and across southern lower mi and southern on to near the border
between qc and ny/vt/nh early this afternoon. this front is expected
to waver in the same general area through tonight as multiple, weak
lows move ne`ward along the front. on wednesday through wednesday
night, a stronger low is still expected to deepen as it tracks
ne`ward along the front, from the southwestern great lakes to
southern qc. this evolution of the low should allow the trailing and
strong cold front to sweep se`ward across our region late wednesday
afternoon through the evening. behind the front, a surface ridge
builds from the north-central united states through daybreak
thursday. net low-level waa in the warm sector will contribute to
overnight lows reaching mainly the 50`s to lower 60`s overnight
tonight; well-above average for this time of year. afternoon highs
should reach mainly the upper 60`s to lower 70`s on wednesday, ahead
of the cold front. near-record warm highs are forecast. strong low-
level caa behind the cold front will contribute to lows reaching the
mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak thursday.

through this evening, isolated and organized showers and
thunderstorms amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear remain
possible in northern oh and nw pa due to the following reasons: low-
level convergence/moist ascent along a lake erie lake breeze front
that should advance a few miles inland from the shore from the ne
side of cleveland through erie county, pa before the lake breeze
dissipates early this evening; moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead
of shortwave disturbances, and low-level convergence/moist ascent
along surface trough axes accompanying the shortwaves. these lifting
mechanisms are expected to release weak to moderate and primarily
surface-based mucape over land and elevated mucape over the
relatively-cold/stable lake erie marine boundary layer. there is a
small risk of damaging wind gusts with these organized storms
through early evening courtesy of steep low-level lapse rates and
moderate dcape before the boundary layer over land starts to
stabilize via nocturnal cooling. the potential for small to
marginally-severe hail should increase through this evening as mid-
level lapse rates steepen to near 7c/km to 8c/km as an eml plume
overspreads our area from the wsw and allows mucape in the hail
growth zone to increase as ambient melting levels remain near 10kft
agl. the potential for severe convective weather through this
evening still appears to be non-zero, but minimal.

the predawn hours of wednesday morning are when we are most-
concerned about severe thunderstorms in our cwa. a wsw`erly
nocturnal low-level jet (llj) of at least 40 to 50 knots, at/near
925 to 850 mb, should form over our region. this llj will enhance
moist isentropic ascent, including ahead of the shortwave trough
axes, and enhance low-level vertical wind shear and primarily
surface-based esrh (i.e. esrh values should increase to near 150 to
250 meters squared per second squared). deepening of lows along the
surface front should back surface winds somewhat, which should also
enhance surface-based esrh in our cwa. primarily surface-based
mucape should remain weak to moderate in the warm/moist sector and
effective bulk shear will remain moderate to strong as tropospheric
winds continue to veer and especially strengthen significantly with
height. mid-level lapse rates should remain steep and mucape in the
hail growth zone should remain sizable through about daybreak,
before the eml plume exits ene`ward. accordingly, organized
convection that develops upstream of our region late this afternoon
and evening should persist generally e`ward across our region as a
qlcs and pose the risk of a tornado or two, as mixed layer lcl`s
remain favorable, and pose the risk of damaging hail up to golf ball-
size. damaging straight-line wind gusts are also a concern because,
for example, the qlcs should exhibit a fairly deep/strong cold pool
and dcin should be limited as synoptic-scale low-level warm/moist
air advection persists in the pre-storm environment and limits
nocturnal cooling.

during the day on wednesday, effective bulk shear is expected to
remain moderate to strong as tropospheric winds continue to veer and
especially strengthen with height. primarily surface-based esrh and
mucape, respectively, are forecast in the warm/moist sector,
especially given the expectation of peeks of sunshine and daytime
heating. esrh should remain sizable as the aforementioned stronger
and deeper surface low should cause surface winds to back somewhat
and help enhance low-level vertical wind shear. mid-level lapse
rates should be paltry, though, due to the lack of an eml plume.
the biggest question for wednesday`s forecast is how much renewed
destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer will occur
in our cwa given the expectation of mostly cloudy sky and residual
outflow from earlier convection. if sufficient daytime heating
yields weak to moderate and primarily surface-based mucape amidst
steep low-level lapse rates, then another qlcs along the cold front
with a threat for tornadoes and damaging straight-line wind gusts
would likely materialize. we will continue to monitor this potential
closely. otherwise, if mucape remains paltry, the cold front
passage would likely be accompanied by isolated to scattered showers
and sub-severe storms. note: showers and storms are expected to
produce periods of heavy rain as the low-level warm/moist air
advection from the gulf yields near-record high pwat values in the
warm sector. training convection is expected along the front and
along the axis of tonight`s wsw`erly llj as mean mid-level flow
exhibits a large component parallel to the front and the llj`s major
axis. excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding are not out of
the question. once the cold front sweeps se`ward through our region,
rain may mix with and then change to wet snow via nocturnal cooling,
the wet-bulb effect, and strong caa at the surface and aloft before
precip along the upper-reaches of the front exits our region by
daybreak thursday. any snow accumulations should be less than a half
inch.

key message #2:

dry weather and much colder air temperatures are expected in the
cold sector on thursday as the surface ridge continues building
e`ward, a primary trough axis aloft sweeps e`ward over our region,
and shortwave ridging aloft follows. daytime highs should reach only
the 30`s in nw pa and the mid 30`s to lower 40`s in northern oh. the
ridge exits e`ward thursday night and allows a warm front to sweep
n`ward through our region as a clipper-type low pressure system
approaches from the north-central united states and vicinity. a mix
of primarily rain and snow is possible via moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front. lows should reach the mid
20`s to mid 30`s before midnight and be followed by moderating
temperatures as waa strengthens at the surface and aloft ahead of
and especially behind the surface warm front. as the clipper moves
e`ward across the northern great lakes region on friday, the
trailing cold front sweeps e`ward across our region. rain showers
along the surface cold front may be followed by a rain/snow mix
associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front as cold air
deepens behind the surface front. daytime highs are expected to
reach mainly the 40`s to lower 50`s ahead of the cold front. a
strong low-level wind field is expected to accompany the clipper. at
least advisory-criteria peak wind gusts (46 to 57 mph) are possible
due to the following: diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer tapping into stronger flow aloft; deep mechanical mixing of
the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft for several
hours behind the cold front as low-level winds/caa strengthening
with height promote steep low-level lapse rates. odds favor dry
weather friday night as a ridge at the surface and aloft moves
e`ward through our region. lows should reach the 20`s to lower 30`s
amidst low-level caa behind the cold front.

primarily sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded trough axes
should impact our region this weekend through tuesday. at the
surface, our region should mainly be located in the cold sector, but
a warm front should sweep n`ward through our region saturday night
into sunday and be followed by the e`ward passage of a strong cold
front later sunday into sunday night. additional periods of rain
and/or snow are expected courtesy of the front passages and moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the trough axes aloft. mainly near or
below-average air temperatures are expected. for example, our latest
forecast calls for highs to reach only the lower to mid 30`s on
monday and only the mid 20`s to lower 30`s on tuesday. however,
above-average high temperatures are forecast in the warm sector on
sunday. note: a primarily w`erly to nw`erly mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of ~3c lake erie may
generate lake-effect snow monday into tuesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
primarily mvfr conditions are in place across the area with
mostly cloudy skies. scattered showers are ongoing across nw
pennsylvania at 18z where a boundary resides along the lake erie
shoreline. scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
possible at eri through 20z. cle/yng could experience a light
shower but not enough confidence in occurring at the terminal to
include through 00z.

the main feature to watch overnight will be a larger cluster of
thunderstorms approaching from southern michigan and northern
indiana after 06z. these thunderstorms are likely to produce
heavy rainfall, with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms.
winds gusts of 30-40 knots are most likely but 50 knots are
possible along with small hail. storms are expected to be
strongest towards tol/fdy after 07z but overall probability is
fairly low given the late night timing. with that said, brought
a period of rain with a 2-3 hour tempo into most terminals
starting as early as 07z at tol and 12z at eri. winds have
shifted out of the north with the showers at eri at 18z while
all other terminals have southwesterly winds near 10 knots and
gusts to 20 knots this afternoon. overnight showers and
thunderstorms will have an impact on winds on wednesday but
breezy southwesterly winds are likely to develop during the
afternoon, with a wind shift arriving in the 20-00z window.

outlook...non-vfr likely with showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow wednesday night into thursday. non-vfr may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on friday. confidence is increasing
for widespread strong west to southwest winds on friday.

&&

.marine...
a stationary front will reside across lake erie tonight with
potential for showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain. the
thunderstorms may have an impact on the winds on wednesday but a
warm front will try to lift north and enable southwest winds to
increase to near 20 knots, becoming westerly to 25 knots wednesday
night with the passage of a cold front. small craft advisories have
resumed and will likely be needed wednesday night.

a ridge builds east across lake erie on thursday with improving
conditions. another very strong low pressure system will track
through the upper great lakes on friday. a strong low level jet will
be over the lake on friday and could see gale conditions both ahead
of and with the cold front that arrives friday night. the track and
strength of this system will continue to be monitored over the
coming days. the strong southwest to westerly winds could also
result in low water conditions on the western basin of lake erie. a
high pressure ridge quickly builds in on saturday with improving
conditions.

&&

.climate...
daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records through
march 11th. here are the record warm high temperatures at area
climate sites for march 10th and 11th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
459
fxus63 kiwx 101857 cca
afdiwx

area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service northern indiana
257 pm edt tue mar 10 2026

.key messages...

- scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely tonight, with
the potential for very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes,
best chances along and north of us 24 in in and mi.

- potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding tonight
into wednesday morning, best chances northern half of the
forecast area where a flood watch was issued.

- potential for strong winds (45+ mph) on friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 222 pm edt tue mar 10 2026

little change in thinking regarding the severe thunderstorm and
heavy rain potential late this afternoon into tonight. as of 18z,
frontal boundary of interest has dropped into far nw in east along
and just north of the mi line. the nose of a developing 40-50 kt low
level jet into this boundary will enhance convergence and helicity
late this afternoon into this evening with discrete supercells
likely expanding east into areas mainly north of the us 24 corridor
during this time. cape/shear profiles appear favorable for sustained
rotating updrafts with large hail and tornadoes the primary threats
initially.

convection likely congeals into more of a linear mode overnight as
stronger upper level forcing overspreads and boundary parallel flow
increases. primary threats likely transition more to damaging winds
with any organized linear segments (possibly a convectively
augmented mcv) and heavy rain/flooding given high moisture content
(pwats > 1.20") and smaller mbe vectors hinting at backbuilding.
opted for a flood watch for mainly urban type flash flooding across
the northern half of the fa where better odds for training
convection exist. the main upper level trough and cold front will
swing through during the day on wednesday with fairly widespread
showers slowly diminishing from west to east. temperatures will also
fall back into the 30s and 40s post-frontal wednesday afternoon
within gusty northwest winds.

high pressure will provide relatively quiet weather conditions in
between systems wednesday night into thursday. a strong mid level
shortwave within the left exit region of a 170 kt upper jet looks to
send a rather robust sfc low (~990 mb) east through wi and northern
lower michigan late thursday night into friday. this system could
bring some brief light precipitation within its waa wing, though the
main impact with be the wind field around this with a period of
advisory level gusts (45 mph+) not out of the question for a time
on friday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 113 pm edt tue mar 10 2026

a strong cold front had combined with a lake breeze and was just
northwest of sbn at the start of the taf period. a deep surface
low was over ks. the low will race east along the front and
should track just northwest of sbn. as the low approaches,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. the best
chance for storms during this taf period is with the passage of
the front. reduced visibilities and wind shear are especially
likely in the vicinity of the front and near all storms.
lingering showers will persist through the rest of the taf
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening through late
tonight for inz005>009-012-014-015-017-018-103-104-116-
203-204-216.
oh...flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through late tonight
for ohz001-002-004-005-015.
mi...flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through late tonight
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am wednesday to 11 am edt
thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
704
fxus63 kdtx 101942
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
342 pm edt tue mar 10 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage tonight. the
potential exists for storms to become severe capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail for all location. an isolated
tornado possible along and south of the i-94 corridor.

- winter weather advisory is in effect for the tri cities region and
northern thumb from this evening until late wednesday morning. ice
accumulations of up to 0.10 inch is expected to result in travel
impacts wednesday morning.

- rain showers continue wednesday with brief change over to melting
snow showers by wednesday night possible.

- accumulating snow is likely friday with a dynamic clipper system
tracking through the great lakes. strong west winds in excess of 40
mph may be possible during the daytime friday.

- another strong low pressure system may impact the great lakes to
start next week.

&&

.discussion...

20z surface analysis shows a sharpening low level baroclinic zone
slowly migrating southward toward the i-94 corridor. while firm cold
air advection continues north of the boundary, initial attention
focused along and immediately south of the boundary as the frontal
slope engages a gradually destabilizing profile with temperatures now
in the mid 70s in ann arbor/dtw. collective consensus across the
hires solution space indicate roughly 1000-1500 j/kg will exist
across this corridor with a peak in the 21z-00z window. mixed signal
yet on the convective response, acknowledging some lingering
stability concerns atop the boundary layer which may prove limiting
for updraft growth/depth. background deep layer wind field certainly
supportive of greater convective organization should a better updraft
root at the surface, while the frontal zone offers an inherent
focused region of low level shear/srh. window to monitor, but
certainly plausible little to nothing manifests before the boundary
eases further south and pinches off the better low level instability
to the south.

main window for widespread convective activity remains centered
within the 02z to 08z period. convective expansion occurs upstream
this evening as the surface low and subtle height falls work across
the boundary and moisture transport strengthens atop the elevated
frontal zone. inbound activity to remain elevated for nearly all
areas given the depth and strength of low level stability held in low
level east/northeast flow. the i-94 to ohio border corridor will
continue to carry more tenuous positioning with some vulnerability
yet for brief near surface destabilization to remain/materialize if
the surface front wobbles north. there remains a small subset of
solutions that leave that door open. forecast will continue to
highlight associated tornado potential in line with the spc outlook
for this small footprint of southeast michigan tonight. elsewhere,
brief heavy rain and hail potential will exist as deeper theta-e
transport engages sufficient elevated instability residing along the
frontal slope. higher magnitude of cold air advection, with some
influence from onshore flow off the marine waters, will bring
temperatures down into the low to mid 30s across the saginaw valley
and northern thumb regions tonight. this increases the probability
for some areas of freezing rain to materialize where surface temps
flirt with freezing. efficiency of ice accretion may prove limited
given the marginal/warm conditions just off the surface, but
probabilistic data maintains a high probability for a glaze of ice
with around a 25% chance of exceeding .05" in midland/bay city and
bad axe.

surface low migrates through wednesday morning. a weakly unstable
low level environment briefly materializes 12z-18z /mainly southeast/
as pre-frontal southwest flow provides very modest warm/moist air
advection. boundary layer destabilization appears capped at less than
500 j/kg at this stage, but sufficient to maintain a higher
probability for scattered shallow convection. better mid level
dynamics appear to shear northeast within the immediate post-frontal
environment, affording a trend toward drier and more stable
conditions overall by mid-late afternoon. narrow opportunity for some
wet snowflakes mainly north late afternoon and evening within the
south end of the deformation axis. overnight cold air advection will
bring temperatures below freezing all areas by thursday morning.

no significant wx thursday with deep layer stability held under
confluent mid level northwest flow and surface ridging. seasonable
resident thermal profile now entrenched. a highly dynamic mid level
wave projected to eject across the northern great lakes thursday
night and friday. lead wing of isentropic ascent tied to
strengthening elevated warm air advection lifts across the local
area thur night. some variation yet in both moisture quality and
available ascent with southward extent. greatest precip potential
focused friday morning as pronounced height falls collocate with
favorable upper jet support. burst of wet, accumulating snow
plausible mainly across the north assuming a supportively cold
environment. stronger wind potential to accompany the post-frontal
cold air advection friday afternoon/evening, with a notable increase
in wind magnitude captured by improving mixing depth. yet another
mid level wave of north pacific origin forecast to deepen upon
arrival for the weekend period. this system will present another
opportunity for some accumulating snow for portions of southeast
michigan sometime saturday night into sunday. further forecast
revision likely as detail in system trajectory, timing and strength
become more apparent.

&&

.marine...

deepening low pressure tracks along a cold front that is south of
lake huron at issuance and will lift back north as a warm front
during the day wednesday. the front will act as a trigger for shower
and thunderstorm development this evening, with potential for strong
to severe storms over lake st. clair and lake erie. all severe
hazards remain possible. strong low level jet winds pair with this
system to generate sporadic gale potential overnight, but stability
limits headline issuance at this time. widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms persist wednesday as the front lifts back north toward
southern lake huron. cyclonic flow around the low transitions to
broader northwest flow wednesday night that introduces 30+ knot gust
potential as cold advection ramps up, albeit brief duration. active
stretch of weather continues for the latter half of the week, with a
return to wintry conditions. increasing confidence in gale potential
for friday as strong low pressure tracks across the great lakes,
alongside wintry precipitation.

&&

.hydrology...

widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight and
wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward across lower
michigan. expected rainfall totals range from 0.75-2.00 inches by
wednesday afternoon. this may lead to some minor flooding of prone
urban and low lying areas, as well as rises on area rivers.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 141 pm edt tue mar 10 2026

aviation...

a stalled frontal boundary now resides over southern michigan which
has resulted in some better mixing and some subtle scouring of some
cloud cover across the metro terminal, up through kptk, where low-
end vfr resides. convergence along the frontal boundary will likely
result in ifr cigs through the afternoon most likely across kfnt
with mvfr cigs likely holding across kmbs. shower and thunderstorms
will initiate off a strong low level jet that enters michigan after
00z. widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will be likely
across se mi likely favored between 03-07z. for kmbs, it is possible
to see a small window for freezing rain between 00z-03z, given
cooler flow off of the saginaw bay. however, confidence is very low
regarding the materialization of wintry precipitation given current
temperatures in the upper 30s. have pushed back and shortened the
window for freezing rain in this forecast package. following the
initial round of convection, confidence will be low regarding
redevelopment of any convection as the low pressure system
approaches. prob30 groups have been added highlighting the best
window for any second rounds of thunderstorms.

for dtw... most favorable window for thunderstorms will be between
03z to 07z as upstream showers and thunderstorms move into se mi.
there will be a second window for thunderstorms favored 11 to 15z,
but confidence is much lower given uncertainty of localized
environment in the wake of any initial activity tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through the forecast.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon. high between 03 and 08z
tonight. low 10z to 15z wednesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt
wednesday for miz047>049-053-054.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......mv
hydrology....mr
aviation.....am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.