Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
119
fxus61 kcle 130821
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
321 am est fri feb 13 2026

.what has changed...
lowered forecast lows for early this morning. added a low chance of
snow to the forecast for northwest pennsylvania tonight.

&&

.key messages...
1) a warming trend begins today with above normal temperatures
forecast through next week, effectively melting the snowpack across
the region.

2) rain is likely on wednesday with precipitation amounts of
generally a third of an inch or less.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

temperatures are starting off cool today with a few locations in the
single digits but a long awaited warming trend is set to get
underway. one more shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
eastern great lakes tonight before a ridge builds into the ohio
valley. most of the area will experience sunny conditions today
and temperatures will recover to between 30 and 40 degrees.
while some high cloud spreads overhead on saturday, gradual warm
advection will be occurring with 850mb temperatures near 0c. a
closed upper level low slides east across the gulf coast states
on sunday followed by a broad ridge with quasi-zonal flow aloft
returning through tuesday. most of northern ohio will surpass
50 degrees through tuesday while northwest pennsylvania will
reach the mid 40s. a warm front lifts north on wednesday which
will push southern portions of our forecast area towards 60
degrees.

several days of above normal temperatures will melt the snowpack
across the region. dewpoints climb solidly above the freezing mark
on monday and return each afternoon through the end of the
extended forecast. the warming conditions and periods of sun
may also result in some thermal break up of ice on local rivers.
conditions on local rivers will be monitored through the week.

.key message 2...

the primary opportunity for precipitation in the forecast is on
wednesday when rain is possible along a warm front. shortwave energy
on the nose of a 150 knot upper level jet will lift out of the
plains towards the great lakes region on tuesday night. overrunning
precipitation is likely to develop from west to east across the area
from tuesday night into wednesday. models focus more of the
precipitation north of lake erie and there is still some potential
that we do not see rain with this system, but probabilities for
measurable rain are 60 percent or higher across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania on wednesday. precipitation amounts are
forecast to be a third of an inch or less and fall as rain.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
high pressure and drier air building into the region this
morning will continue to scatter out the cloud deck, with vfr
expected to persist through today. lingering flurries in far ne
ohio and nw pa will end within the next hour or two giving way
to mostly clear skies.

light and variable or wnw winds early this morning will become
sw by mid morning and increase to 5-10 knots in the afternoon.

outlook...mostly vfr is expected.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered, though will begin to
deteriorate in the coming days as temperatures begin to warm with a
southwesterly wind. winds are currently light across the lake,
around 5 knots out of the west to southwest increasing to around 10
knots out of the southwest throughout the day today. there will be a
brief peak in the winds, around 15-20 knots tonight into early
saturday before decreasing again saturday. light winds are expected
with high pressure across the region through the weekend into early
next week.

with the southwesterly winds and potential ice deterioration, ice
movement is possible east of the islands along the southern shore of
lake erie. especially during the period of stronger winds tonight
into saturday morning, ice could break off the shore and move to the
northeast. warming temperatures will increase this possibility,
though as mentioned above, winds will be light in the near future
and precipitation potential is low, which could overall limit
ice movement.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...garuckas
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
053
fxus63 kiwx 130713
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
213 am est fri feb 13 2026

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures through the upcoming 7 days.

- there is a 20-40% for light rain along and south of us 30
saturday night into sunday morning.

- a more active pattern arrives wednesday through friday next
week with periodic rain chances (30-50%) and gusty winds.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 213 am est fri feb 13 2026

dry and trending warmer through early next week with the local area
generally in between shortwaves in split flow. the exception could
be saturday night when the far northern fringes of a low pressure
system tracking east through the lower ms valley and deep south
potentially brings a period of light rain to areas mainly south of
the us 30 corridor (20-40%). the main story will be the gradually
warming temperatures as low level flow trajectories take on a more
southerly component throughout.

a more active pattern (mild, occasionally wet and windy) looks to
take shape during the mid-late week periods given good ensemble
agreement in several shortwaves and associated sfc reflections
ejecting east-northeast through the midwest and great lakes in moist
southwest flow. the initial warm front on wednesday could push far
enough north to bring temps into the 60s for at least southern
portions of the area with rain and perhaps some embedded thunder
developing along and north of the warm front. signal for a more
pronounced low center and shortwave then brings additional rain
chances and wind sometime thursday and friday, though details
regarding track/intensity/timing remain uncertain at this forecast
range.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1245 am est fri feb 13 2026

limited aviation weather concerns this period as an expansive
low level anticyclone continues to provide light winds and
primarily vfr conditions. a band of vfr 7-8k ft clouds extends
from southern lower michigan to the kfwa vicinity early this
morning tied in to a strong low-mid level theta-e gradient
across the region. this band of clouds is expected to dissipate
overnight and shift eastward. this should set the stage for
another good night of radiational cooling conditions. some
patchy shallow fog will be possible once again this morning,
although confidence remains low in occurrence at the terminals.
light southerly flow returns during the day today as the ridge
of high pressure begins to shift eastward. another weak upstream
short wave and weak low level theta-e ridge could bring some
scattered vfr clouds to the area once again this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
621
fxus63 kdtx 130831
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
331 am est fri feb 13 2026

.key messages...

- no precipitation expected through the weekend.

- above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

&&

.discussion...

clear skies have favored efficient radiational cooling supporting
current temperatures in the single digits to low teens across se mi.
this setup has taken place under high pressure that has drifted
southeast, which will track into the carolinas by this afternoon. a
compact shortwave translating southeast across western ontario will
quickly pass over lake huron this afternoon and evening. this wave
remains far enough removed from the cwa, holding organized snow
activity north of the region. the only local exception will be the
northern thumb, where a low-end chance (10%) to get clipped remains
on the southern fringe of the mid-level forcing.

the weekend and into early next week favors continued quiet weather
with above normal temperatures as quasi-zonal flow across the great
lakes allows milder plains air to translate east. farther south,
guidance remains consistent in a southern stream wave that lifts
from the southern plains into the southeast this weekend. associated
isentropic ascent and deeper moisture is projected to hold south of
the michigan state line, favoring a dry outcome locally.

increasing potential for active weather by the early to midweek
period, first from a northern stream wave that amplifies south
across the central canadian provinces, which in turn will push a
cold front across northern lower michigan monday into tuesday. the
overall forcing along the front looks modest at this time, but very low-
end chances for snow showers will be possible if the frontal
boundary reaches south into southern michigan. the more significant
potential will be associated with a pacific wave that will come
onshore across the continental northwest early next week. this wave
is projected to drive into southern california before rounding across
the rockies. cyclogenesis and development of an associated low
pressure system will then bring increasing chances for active weather
through the midweek period as the low targets the ohio valley or
great lakes region.

confidence in active weather is moderate, noting the strong
convergence within the naefs/eps ensemble means regarding a storm
track that targets the great lakes or within the vicinity. p-type
will be highly sensitive to the final track of the low. this will be
dictated by the magnitude of amplification of the longwave pattern
across the plains, which is where most of the variance is observed
within the cluster phase space analysis (eof1). a more amplified
trough over the plains would fave a less progressive pattern with
stronger warm air advection, favoring rain, while a flatter/more
progressive pattern will result in a south favored trajectory of the
low and would mute the warm sector influence. this would increased
probabilities for a snow and/or freezing rain event. confidence is
very low regarding any p-type forecasting this far out, but the
aforementioned ensemble mean output and additional support from
deterministic/ai models makes this an item to monitor in subsequent
forecast cycles.

&&

.marine...

an area of high pressure will affect most of the central great lakes
through the weekend. a clipper system is expected to cross the
northern lakes today bringing slightly stronger winds and a bit of
snowfall to northern huron. southwest winds of 15-20 knots will
prevail with gusts aob 25 knots. the gradient relaxes tonight, after
the system exits eastward, then trajectories veer wnw saturday
morning. a secondary surface high passes over lower michigan on
saturday leading to weak and variable winds. winds then back
southerly with time. lighter flow continues sunday while a weak
frontal boundary turns weak prevailing flow westerly sunday evening.
a split-flow configuration keeps winds aob 15 knots early next week
with minimal opportunities for precipitation.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1126 pm est thu feb 12 2026

aviation...

high pressure centered over the region will maintain a stretch of
dry and stable conditions tonight and friday. widespread vfr
conditions with limited cloud coverage outside of passing mid level
cloud through the period. light winds overnight emerging from the
southwest friday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.