Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
309
fxus61 kcle 012346
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
646 pm est sun feb 1 2026

.what has changed...
overall, very little has changed with the forecast. there`s
still relatively high confidence in accumulating snowfall
towards the end of the week, but confidence in snow
accumulations and the resulting impacts is still low.

&&

.key messages...
1) cold temperatures are expected tonight with minimum
temperatures near or below zero degrees and wind chills to 10
degrees below zero or colder expected.

2) light snow chances return on monday, which could produce
marginal travel impacts.

3) there is increasing potential widespread accumulating
snowfall late in the week. travel impacts are possible, but
confidence in snow accumulations and the resulting impacts remains
low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
tonight will be the last night of frigid temperatures (for a few
days, at least) as arctic high pressure slowly drifts away from
the region. temperatures will generally be coldest at typical
cold/rural spots in eastern and southern portions of the cwa;
lows will likely dip several degrees below zero and will chills
will likely be as cold as 10 to 15 degrees below zero,
especially if skies end up being completely clear. elsewhere,
lows will be in the single digits to near zero degrees with
subzero wind chills. opted against a cold weather advisory given
the potential for lingering cloud cover and an upper ridge axis
building into the region, but it may get close in a few spots.
will keep an eye on satellite/sky cover trends through tonight.
either way, the continued cold will likely produce impacts on
infrastructure (i.e., frozen pipes) and pose a risk for
frostbite and hypothermia if necessary precautions are not
taken.

temperatures will finally "warm" (speaking very relatively here)
on monday as warm air advection develops behind the ridge axis.
highs will be in the 20s for at least the first half of the week
with overnight lows in the teens expected tuesday. single digit
lows will likely return for the middle of the week.

key message 2...
chances of light snow showers will return to the region as a
shortwave and weak warm front move east across the local area
monday. have widespread slight chance to low end chance (20 to
about 30 percent) pops across the entire local area, although
coverage may be quite scattered. any snow accumulations will be
minor (below an inch), but similar to recent light snow
scenarios, snow will likely accumulate on sub-freezing paved
surfaces. the snow could produce minor travel impacts including
slippery travel and pockets of reduced visibility.

key message 3...
confidence continues to increase for widespread snowfall as low
pressure moves southeast from the great lakes friday, although
there`s still uncertainty in the timing/placement of the
surface low`s associated upper trough which has an impact on qpf
and the resulting snow accumulations/impacts. at this point, it
appears that the highest snow accumulations could occur across
the snowbelt region of ne oh and nw pa thanks to the added
moisture from the upstream great lakes. longer range ensemble
probabilities suggest that there is potential for at least 4
inches of snowfall between the low on friday and possible lake
effect snow as colder air (once again) moves over the region
into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr on the front end of the taf. for the eastern terminals,
possible low level stratus/fog setup tonight as an inversion
near the surface develops. terminals most likely to be affected
would be yng and cak, but the inversion will occur further west
as well, but will keep the low level stratus out of that area.
lower confidence in this part of the forecast and may need to
add or remove these ifr/lifr conditions going into the tonight
period. light snow possible for a few hours monday afternoon
with modest restrictions, but a brief ifr visibility window is
not out of the question.

outlook...periodic non-vfr due to low clouds and/or snow expected
through this thursday. non-vfr likely thursday night into friday
with a cold front moving through the region.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains completely ice covered and will continue to be
through the near term as temperatures will stay below freezing.
winds across the lake are light, generally less than 10 knots out of
the west and will shift to be out of the southwest tonight as a
surface high pressure moves off to the east. winds will continue to
shift to be out of the south at 5 to 15 knots throughout the day
monday then shift to be westerly to northwesterly behind a weak cold
front moving through on tuesday. another ridge builds across the
region late tuesday and persists through late thursday and winds
will stay around 10 knots or less out of the northwest.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...26
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
087
fxus63 kiwx 020002
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
702 pm est sun feb 1 2026

.key messages...

- light snow arriving early monday morning could impact the
morning commute, especially around the greater south bend
area.

- snow moves from west to east monday bringing accumulations of
less than 1 inch.

- not quite as cold this week with highs in the 20s and lows in
the teens to single-digits.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 136 pm est sun feb 1 2026

a narrow upper-level trough is dropping south through minnesota and
iowa this afternoon with an area of snow encountering a very
dry air mass, characterized by 15f dew point depressions. as a
result, very few observing stations are reporting snow beneath
radar returns. the area of snow is forecast to fade this
afternoon, yet additional returns further northwest are forecast
to survive into our area late tonight and through monday as the
trough drops south. dew points here have already recovered into
the teens at some stations with 805-mb warm air advection
underway.

light snow for the monday morning commute, primarily in northwest in
and southwest mi, could result in instances of slippery travel.
limitations to this system include an elevated and poorly saturated
dendritic growth zone, along with lackluster moisture and forcing.
snow totals will certainly be less than 1 inch, with the greatest
opportunity for accumulation along and north of us 6 as previously
mentioned in this space. this system now looks to have exited the
fort wayne area before the evening commute. lackluster
inversion heights (less then 5kft) look to limit any lake effect
snow chances behind this disturbance.

upper-level heights quickly rebound and warm air advection takes
shape tuesday. developing low pressure over the tennessee valley
wednesday permits canadian high pressure to move into the midwest,
knocking down temperatures for a day. the next clipper arrives
friday with arctic high pressure returning for the weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 654 pm est sun feb 1 2026

initially vfr conditions deteriorate to mvfr/ifr as a clipper
system moves through the area. current reflectivity on radar
upstream in the il/chicago area doesn`t appear to be
materializing into light snow at the surface yet per
observations. this will probably be the case as the system runs
into dry air currently lodged over the terminals, however late
tonight into monday morning we`ll begin to see light snow at
ksbn first then kfwa closer to 12-15z. obs within the deeper
moisture plume upstream have visibilities around 1 1/2sm to
4-5sm, with ceilings of 1500-2500ft for the most part. there are
a few pockets where ceilings are between 400-800ft. most of the
guidance suggests this will be the case as the system moves into
northern indiana. winds out of the s-sw this evening shift
towards the w-sw through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
036
fxus63 kdtx 012247
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
547 pm est sun feb 1 2026

.key messages...

- cold this morning with wind chills ranging between -15f to -5f.

- mostly sunny today with afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 20s
with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

- chance for snow showers monday with expected snow accumulations
under an inch. better accumulation for an inch or greater at the end
of the week.

&&

.aviation...

a surface and mid level ridge axis over se mi this evening will move
east of the area during the overnight. the large scale subsidence
and dry airmass overhead will sustain clear skies while the eastward
departing surface ridge maintains a light south wind. available
model guidance suggests a very abrupt arrival of low clouds from
west to east between 11z and 13z monday, marking the arrival of a
mid level trough axis. weak ascent within a narrow deep layer
moisture axis will warrant light snow into at least early monday
afternoon under mvfr conditions. while the mid level trough will
depart to the east monday afternoon, lingering low level moisture
within a surface trough will sustain low clouds and flurries/light
snow showers through at least late monday afternoon.

for dtw...latest model guidance suggests the onset of light snow
occurring around 13z. limited forcing indicates just a dusting of
accumulation monday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 feet monday and monday evening.

* high for ptype as snow monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 336 pm est sun feb 1 2026

discussion...

a ridge axis has maintained dry and stable conditions across the
great lakes, which has brought a full day of sunshine. this has
allowed temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 20s across se
mi. flow remains quasi-barotropic with only modest/delayed cold
advection, the peak which arrives after peak radiational cooling. as
a result, overnight lows will still be very cold, but not as cold as
this morning, with temperatures ranging between the low to upper
single digits.

a shortwave and extended lobe of vorticity now exiting the plains
will enter the great lakes tomorrow morning which will bring higher
end to likely chances (50-60%) for light snow. the antecedent dry
environment and weak forcing precludes any meaningful snow
accumulation with totals holding under an inch, likely ranging
between a dusting up to a half-inch between 12z to 18z as the
feature progresses from west to east. low-level flow will veer west
in the wake of the shortwave which will introduce some additional
lake effect snow chances through tomorrow afternoon and evening.

both the thermodynamic environment and resulting lake-induced
instability off of lake michigan appear less supportive than
yesterday, which lowers confidence regarding any meaningful
accumulation from lake effect snow showers after 18z. however,
increasing subsidence in the mid-levels in the wake of the departing
wave can squeeze out flurries through the day. a better response and
opportunity for some better snow showers with brief accumulation will
be across the tri-cities and thumb tuesday morning, tied to
progression of a secondary shortwave across northern lower and the
continued veering of wind direction to the northwest. this will
enhance convergence along a weak cold front, which will become more
diffuse as it progresses south of i-69. continued chance for flurries
or very light snow will exist through tuesday but moisture quality
through 5kft will be poor which again limits confidence for
accumulation. daytime highs peak in the mid 20s for tuesday.

high pressure to gradually fill back in wednesday and thursday which
will bring dry conditions along with a persistence forecast with
highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits. the next likely (60-
70%) chance for snow enters late thursday night into friday as a
clipper system drops. pending the final track of this system, there
will be a brief opportunity for milder air across the plains to
advect in ahead of this system, bringing chances to see temperatures
near the freezing mark. nbm probabilistic data remains steady for
50-70% chances to see at least 1" of snow with this system.
enhancement of the trough in the wake of this system will bring the
return of well below normal temperatures. lows near zero and highs in
the teens are forecasted for the start of the weekend.

marine...

influence of high pressure maintains light (<15kt) winds to close
out the weekend. a weak clipper arrives late day monday but aside
for scattered light snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts with
accompanying winds holding at or below 20kts. another high dropping
out of the upper midwest then follows for midweek bringing quiet
marine weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...am
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.