Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
501
fxus61 kcle 171139
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 am edt sat oct 17 2026

.what has changed...
the freeze watch has been upgraded to a freeze warning. a frost
advisory has also been issued for lakeshore zones east of
cleveland.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect rain showers will gradually diminish through this
morning as high pressure builds across the region and persists
through next week. frost and freeze conditions are expected
tonight.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a north-south
oriented band of lake effect rain showers between the i- 71 and
i-77 corridors, aided by a lake huron moisture connection and
surface convergence. this activity proceeds the arrival of a
chilly air mass, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling
near -5 to -6 degrees c later this morning as high pressure
builds east into the region. lake effect rain showers should
gradually diminish through this morning as more dry air and
subsidence enter the area.

have gone ahead and upgraded the freeze watch area to a freeze
warning with clear skies and generally light winds expected
overnight into sunday morning. additionally, have issued a frost
advisory for lake county and the ashtabula and erie, pa lakeshores.
a bit of a tricky frost/freeze forecast, especially west of the i-71
corridor and along the northeast lakeshore as an increasing pressure
gradient (925 mb winds approaching 10 to 15 knots) and developing
land breeze could result in slightly higher surface winds and warmer
temperatures. however, given forecast dew points in the upper 20s to
lower 30 and a favorable environment for radiative cooling (at least
initially), went on the more aggressive side for frost/freeze
headlines.

depending on which areas hit freeze criteria tonight, there is the
potential for another round of frost sunday night into monday as the
high pressure center slowly shifts east into southeast ohio,
resulting in low temperatures in the low to mid-30s. a gradual
warming of temperatures (slightly above normal) and dry conditions
are expected through next week as high pressure continues to
influence the weather pattern.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
high pressure will build across the area through this afternoon,
leading to improving aviation weather. as we approach 12z drier
air is gradually working in and most sites have returned to vfr,
though some lake effect clouds and showers persist south of the
lake. showers are most prominent across parts of north central
oh, including near mfd, with just a few spotty sprinkles
elsewhere. clouds are in and out of all sites east of tol/fdy,
mainly vfr bases around 040 at this point, though with some
pockets of mvfr across parts of north central oh. lake effect
clouds and any showers are expected to dissipate through early
this afternoon, leaving mainly clear and vfr conditions for the
remainder of the tafs. north winds 8-15kt (with a few gusts to
25kt still near lake erie, including at cle and eri) will
diminish to under 7 knots this afternoon, then flip around to
the south-southwest while remaining under 7 knots tonight.

outlook...mainly vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions continue this morning with north winds of 20
to 30 knots and periodic gale force gusts. winds will gradually
diminish to less than 15 knots by this afternoon, shifting towards
the south to southwest saturday night into monday as high pressure
slides just south of lake erie, 10 to 15 knots. generally light
flow, favoring an east to northeast direction at times, is expected
through much of the week as high pressure influences the weather
pattern.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for
ohz003-006>011- 013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. frost
advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for ohz012-089.
pa...freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for paz002-003.
frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt sunday for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
lez142- 143-149. small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this
afternoon for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...sullivan
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
643
fxus63 kiwx 171642
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1242 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

.key messages...

- widespread frost is expected saturday night into sunday
morning with a potential of temperatures dropping to the
freezing mark, especially east of in-15. a frost advisory and
freeze warning have both been hoisted.

- after the below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures
rebound back above normal for much of next work week with dry
weather expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 304 am edt sat oct 17 2026

surface high pressure continues to build in causing low level
moisture to dissipate, lake induced instability to wane, and low
level trajectories to become more southerly. as lake enhanced rain
dissipates early this morning, dry air takes over and we`re in this
dry pattern for the foreseeable future. this is as the upper jet
retreats into mi and upper ridging builds into areas east of the
rockies. an area of low pressure washes out between wednesday and
thursday as a cold front pushes southeastward ahead of another
surface high. the ecmwf has rain approaching the area, but that`s
really the only model that does so.

otherwise, the temperatures are the most noteworthy piece of
weather that should be discussed here. morning temps fell back
into the 30s this morning, but lingering wind and limited
decoupling restricted frost formation to patchy at best despite
temperatures falling into the mid 30s and even some low 30s in
some outlying spots. 850 mb temps this morning reached around
-2c and, even as that aforementioned return flow takes over, we
have our lowest temperatures of this young cool season as
freezing temperatures look to settle in along and south of
us-24. the give and take between surface high pressure-affected
weak flow and encroaching strengthening gradient to our north
and west once again lessens confidence on frost formation on the
northern side of our freeze watch for sunday am. there are
signs in forecast soundings of a decoupling boundary layer sun
am and again mon am, although lesser confidence in frost occurs
monday and even lesser for tuesday. while waa doesn`t appear to
be established in the following days, temperatures are forecast
to trend warmer, rising above 40 degrees by wednesday am. highs
surpass 70 degrees again tuesday morning, although a few areas
in white, pulaski, cass, and fulton could achieve 70f monday as
well.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1239 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

high pressure in place for the next few days will promote vfr
conditions, wind less than 10 knots and mainly clear skies.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 3 am edt /2 am cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am cdt/
sunday for inz005-012>015-020-022-103-104-203-204.
freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am edt sunday for inz006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am edt sunday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am edt sunday for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
175
fxus63 kdtx 171645
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1245 pm edt sat oct 17 2026

.key messages...

- frost headlines now in effect tonight until 8 am edt sunday.

- below normal temperatures this afternoon with a renewed chance for
patchy to widespread frost tomorrow morning.

- dry weather and above normal temperatures next week.

&&

.aviation...

ridge of high pressure over the central great lakes region will
continue to sink southward into the ohio valley through tonight and
sunday. the subsidence and dry air with this ridge will keep skies
clear across most of southeast mi through sunday. as the ridge moves
across se mi and into the ohio valley, light and variable winds
quickly become southwesterly this afternoon and continue into
sunday. a better gradient across the tri cities and flint areas will
keep a noticeably stronger wind overnight and allow for some
gustiness on sunday.

d21/dtw convection...there will be no thunderstorms through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 am edt sat oct 17 2026

discussion...

efficient radiational cooling under mostly clear skies coupled with
post-frontal northwest flow will allow temperatures to drop into the
low to mid 30s across most of se mi over the next 1-3 hours, with
localized colder temperatures expected within the northern tri-
cities. this will result in patchy to widespread frost development
prior to daybreak. frost and freeze headlines remain in effect until
8 am edt. below normal temperatures hold this afternoon as highs peak
in the low to mid 50s under mostly sunny skies. another round of
clear skies overnight will produce another cool morning as lows
drop back into the low to mid 30s. patchy to widespread frost will
again be possible but a slight uptick in gradient flow may help keep
temperatures a couple degrees warmer relative to this morning.
temperatures to then return to seasonal normals in the low 60s by
tomorrow afternoon as flow will have backed to the southwest in
response to high pressure building in through the ohio valley and
appalachia region.

high pressure under ridge amplification will then bring an extended
period of dry weather and above normal temperatures for the
remainder of the forecast period through the end of the week. this
persistence forecast will see mostly sunny conditions and highs
in the mid to upper 60s. some readings in the low 70s will be
possible towards the middle to end of the week once the ridge
amplifies across the midwest in response to a closed low that will
travel south along the coastal pacific, turning inland across
southern california and opening up across the four corners region.

marine...

gusty northerly wind quickly subsides through the morning as a ridge
of high pressure translates across the central great lakes. as the
center of the ridge settles into the ohio valley by this afternoon,
wind direction backs to the west-southwest and helps usher in a
milder, more stable air mass today. by sunday morning, deep low
pressure tracking into hudson bay will induce a tight pressure
gradient and send a low-level jet across the northern lakes. low-
level stability will hold the bulk of the momentum aloft, but models
offer some low end chances in gusts reaching 35 kt gales near the
straits and from outer saginaw bay into central lake huron.
elsewhere, gusts to 20 to 25 kt will be more common. these gusty
conditions continue into sunday evening before wind diminishes as the
jet departs and high pressure builds northward into the great lakes.
this brings about more tranquil marine conditions through early next
week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from 3 am to 8 am edt sunday for miz055-062-063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....rbp
discussion...am
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.