Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
160
fxus61 kcle 231920
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
320 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms likely through the end of the
week with a chance for a few strong storms thursday afternoon and
evening.

2) below normal temperatures through wednesday, with a warming trend
into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
after a dry period today and wednesday, a trough will dive south
from central canada down into the great lakes region late wednesday
night into thursday morning. at the surface, a low pressure will
move west to east into the region lifting a warm front north across
ohio and pennsylvania. surface winds will shift to be out of the
south behind the front increasing temperatures and dew points across
the region. additionally, there will be some isentropic lift with
the front that will develop showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
early thursday morning into the mid day. this precipitation will
linger throughout the day, though there may be a brief break in the
afternoon ahead of the cold front. there will be decent jet support
with the front with enough instability from the advecting warm,
moist air mass from the south that would support a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. the general area would be along and east of i-
71. though, this will also be dependent on how the morning
precipitation shapes up and if there will be enough recovery across
the region to be able to support severe weather. the cold front
should clear the region to the south and east late thursday evening
ending any severe weather potential.

the cold front will stale to the south across the ohio river valley
on friday and waver north to south through saturday. this will
provide periodic showers and a few thunderstorms across the region,
mainly south of the us 30 corridor. a supporting shortwave will move
through the ohio river valley on friday that will push precipitation
further north and bring more moisture into the region. this will be
fighting drier air from high pressure situated across the northern
great lakes and will most likely limit the northward extent of the
precipitation. upper level ridging begins to build into eastern
conus on saturday and will dry out the region.

key message 2...
temperatures over the next couple of days will continue to be below
average with the northerly flow across the region. highs today will
be in the 70s and approach the low 80s on wednesday with overnight
lows tonight in the mid to low 50s. behind the warm front on
temperatures will begin a warming trend, though will be slightly
muted due to the rainfall and increased cloud cover. highs will be
in the 80s with dew points climbing up into the low to mid 60s with
the southerly flow. by sunday, as high pressure begins to build
across the region, temperatures will increase further and continue
into early next week. there`s fairly good agreement that high
temperatures by the start of next week will approach, if not exceed,
90 for much of the region outside of the area around the lakeshore.
additionally, this will bring a more humid air mass as well, and
heat indices will be elevated as well.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with mainly vfr to
persist through the taf period. there is some concern for ifr
mist and/or patchy fog to develop at cak/yng late tonight into
wednesday morning. will continue to monitor if vsbys trend any
lower into lifr territory.

otherwise, winds are generally north to northwest this
afternoon, 8 to 12 knots with isolated gusts up to 20 knots.
winds will become light and variable overnight, favoring a
slight southerly direction by late wednesday morning, around 5
knots. a lake breeze will develop at cle/eri late wednesday
morning/early afternoon, 6 to 8 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday night into thursday, and again on friday night into
saturday.

&&

.marine...
with the exception of some stronger wind gusts associated with
thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening, generally quiet
marine conditions are expected into the weekend. periods of
light, onshore flow of around 10 knots will continue through
wednesday night, before briefly becoming south to southwest on
thursday, 10 to 15 knots. winds will shift back to the north,
then northeast behind a cold front on friday into saturday, 10
knots or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
211
fxus63 kiwx 231801
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
201 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

.key messages...

- there is a moderate swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
this afternoon. breaking waves and currents are expected.

- the next chance for showers and storms arrives late wednesday afternoon
into wednesday night. severe weather is not expected at this
time.

- additional chances (30-70%) for showers and embedded storms
late thursday night into friday, best chances south of us-24.

- hot weather settles in by early next week with highs in the
90s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

high pressure in between upper level shortwaves will continue to
provide pleasant weather conditions into tonight and wednesday
morning. a somewhat slow moving cold front then drops southeast
through the area late wednesday afternoon into thursday morning,
trailing a mid level shortwave tracking east through the northern
great lakes. weak forcing and lacking moisture return suggest
isolated to scattered coverage with any shower/storm activity along
the front, best chances west of i-69 late wednesday
afternoon/evening where an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled
out given favorable deep layer shear magnitudes. renewed convection
expected along the boundary thursday afternoon, though the bulk of
available model guidance has the front south-southeast of the area
by this time with mainly dry/seasonable conditions locally by this
time.

the aforementioned frontal boundary likely stalls over the ohio
river valley thursday night through saturday under flattened quasi-
zonal flow. guidance continues to point toward a rather healthy
convective system tracking east along this boundary later thursday
night into friday, potentially clipping mainly southern portions of
the forecast area with a period of rain and embedded thunder. mainly
dry and trending warmer/muggy otherwise sunday into early next week
as an upper level ridge builds northward into the great lakes
region. peak pm heat indices may near 100f by monday-tuesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 142 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

vfr conditions are expected during the period at both
terminals, with light winds. kfwa could have a period of br
tonight (2-5sm) with the light winds and somewhat clear skies
(depends on thickness/coverage of high clouds). for now, given
low confidence and conflicted model guidance, left out of the
taf. otherwise, northwest winds become light and variable
overnight, then strengthen slightly out of the southwest on
wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
610
fxus63 kdtx 231844
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
244 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather persists tonight.

- slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue through mid to
late week.

- the next chance of rain arrives wednesday afternoon and night then
lasts through thursday. there is a low chance for thunderstorms
thursday afternoon.

- warming temperatures this weekend with additional rain chances.

&&

.discussion...

northerly flow off of lake huron has led to diurnal cumulus
development this afternoon underneath transient cirrus aloft.
comfortable evening is in store for se michigan with temperatures in
the low-mid 70s and clearing skies overnight.

lead edge of the height fall center moves into lower michigan
wednesday morning, followed by a steady influx of moisture and
thickening high level cirrus throughout the day. isentropic arm of
this system then supplies moist ascent into the lowest 700mb of the
column beginning early wednesday evening and continuing overnight,
creating the next opportunity for rain across se michigan. standard
concerns as to how upstream convection over southern conus will
impact moisture transport into this northern stream system, which
caps qpf to a half inch or less wednesday night. cannot completely
rule out a rumble of thunder with this activity, although mid level
lapse rates generally remain aob 6.0 c/km in the warm advective
regime.

dry slot arrives thursday morning, but with additional perturbations
rippling around the mid-level circulation that could overcome some
of the ongoing subsidence. this keeps lower pops in play for the
morning hours, until instability builds thursday afternoon as the
boundary layer destabilizes. mid level lapse rates improve to 6.5
c/km as the main trough axis moves across northern lower, which also
adds broader synoptic support to the environment and reinvigorates
shower and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon. this is
especially true for the saginaw valley/thumb which are in closer
proximity to the synoptic forcing and moisture. varying degrees of
subsidence in the model suite, with capping potential increasing
south of i-69. if the more bullish solutions were to verify (e.g.
nam), the environment could support a stronger cell or two across
the north, although severe weather is unlikely at this time.

pops then decrease thursday night once the front completely slides
through in favor of dry weather friday. temperatures through the
week remain seasonably cool, in the mid to upper 70s before a warm
up is expected this weekend into early next week in which a hot and
humid pattern is forecast to emerge. remnant baroclinic axis is
forecast to settle across the ohio valley this weekend, keeping rain
chances south of the state line through the weekend, although there
are still many points in the forecast cycle where this could trend
north. roughly a third of ensemble members generate measurable qpf
this weekend.

&&

.marine...

high pressure anchored over the region will maintain quiet
conditions across all waterways through tuesday. modest winds
prevailing generally from the north to northwest tonight will become
southerly tuesday. a low pressure system will gradually advance
across the region wednesday and thursday. this will bring
intermittent potential for showers and thunderstorms through this
period. limited wind and wave action expected overall given a weak
gradient, but with any stronger storms being capable of producing
locally higher gusts.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 150 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions through the forecast as high pressure drifts across
the region to the south. the northerly flow today will flip around
to southwesterly on wednesday as the center of the high moves to the
south and east of the area. there will be a developing warm front
west of the area which will nose into the area in the afternoon that
will introduce increasing clouds. otherwise, the rest of the day
will have patches of high cloud with diurnal cu that will dissipate
this evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected today and tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft wednesday afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......mr
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.