Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
806 pm edt thu jun 11 2026

.what has changed...
we have cancelled the heat advisory due to some slightly drier
air that has moved into the area this afternoon. we have a round
of strong to severe storms exiting our far eastern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania counties this mid afternoon. we may see
one more round of showers and storms late this evening into the
overnight with a cold front.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
late this evening into the overnight ahead of an approaching
cold front.

2) slightly cooler and drier weather will move in behind the
cold front friday through saturday. pleasant temperatures and
lower humidity will continue into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a mid level shortwave disturbance is currently tracking across
far neoh and nwpa this afternoon which has helped flared up
scattered strong to severe convection over our far eastern
counties. the threat for storms with this initial round of
convection is just about to completely move out of nwpa and
will likely expired the severe storm watch here shortly. in the
wake of this mid level disturbance, some drier air has mixed
down from the upper atmosphere with dewpoints in the lower to
middle 60s across much of northern ohio this afternoon.
temperatures are also slightly cooler ranging from the upper 70s
over neoh to the upper 80s over nwoh. we have cancelled the heat
advisory this afternoon due to that slightly drier air mixing
down which is keeping the heat index in check. if you have plans
for the rest of the afternoon and early evening, the weather
should be fairly quiet for the time being as we are in a lull
in between areas of convection.

the next and most likely the final round of showers and
thunderstorms that could impact our area will be sometime late
this evening into the overnight, possibly lingering into the
very early hours of friday morning. this round of showers and
possible storms will be just ahead of the approaching cold front
that will move through the area early friday morning. the
atmosphere may recover just enough ahead of the shortwave
disturbance later tonight to maintain a marginal to slight risk
for severe storms overnight. the better potential for
additional strong to severe convection would favor nwoh later
this evening into tonight. we will be watching the disturbance
and complex of convection near chicago at this time as it moves
eastward towards nwoh late this evening. the main threat with
any strong to severe storms tonight will be damaging wind gusts.
the overall trend for convection tonight will be a weakening as
it moves from west to east. some lingering showers and isolated
storms may still be over our far neoh and nwpa counties around
daybreak friday morning, slowly moving eastward and out of the
area.

key message 2...
high pressure will build in later friday through saturday across
the region with slightly cooler, more comfortable temperatures.
high temps on friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
lower humidity levels. friday night low temperatures will be
pleasant in the upper 50s to lower 60s. saturday will bring
more sunshine and fair weather with highs back into the lower
and middle 80s. the overall weather pattern will change with a
large, broad upper level trough developing over the great lakes
region later this weekend into next week. a cold front will
move through the area late saturday night through sunday with a
chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. temperatures
sunday afternoon will be knocked back down into the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees. high pressure and a fair weather day is
expected on monday with highs in the lower to middle 70s. the
next chance for rain will arrive by middle of next week with a
low pressure system and cold front. temperatures will remain in
the middle 70s to lower 80s going into next week.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are expected the rest of the daylight hours. we
are watching a line of thunderstorms in eastern illinois. these
storms are expected to travel east, reaching the i-75 corridor
around 12 am or so. most model guidance has this line of storms
weakening quickly right around the time it gets to the i-75
corridor. thunderstorms with sub-severe wind gusts are likely
at ktol/kfdy (probably in the 30-40 knot range) with current
expectations for little to no lightning at other taf sites
(though we will continue to monitor trends). brief mvfr/ifr
ceilings/visibilites will be possible as well.

a brief period (2-4 hours) of mvfr ceilings are expected
following the showers and storms before conditions become vfr
for the rest of the taf period.

south to southwest winds less than 10 knots are expected
through the next few hours. following the line of showers and
storms, the cold front swings through with west winds increase
to around 12 knots and gusts to 20-25 knots.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
possible this sunday and tuesday.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory and beach hazards statement have been
issued for overnight tonight into at least late friday morning.
please click on the weather alert map on our homepage
(weather.gov/cle) for the details. a high pressure ridge
continues to exit e`ward before a cold front sweeps e`ward
across lake erie tonight through early friday afternoon. this
front passage will be in response to a deepening low that
should track from near the western great lakes to near james
bay. ahead of the cold front, primarily s`erly to sw`erly winds
initially around 5 to 15 knots are expected to freshen to 15 to
25 knots overnight tonight and then veer to w`erly to nw`erly in
response to the cold front`s passage. behind the front, w`erly
to nw`erly winds should ease quickly to around 10 to 20 knots
friday afternoon through sunset friday evening as a ridge
builds from the upper midwest and vicinity. waves of mainly 3
feet or less are expected, but waves as large as 4 to 7 feet
are forecast for a time overnight tonight through late friday
morning farther west and into the afternoon farther east.

overall, quieter marine weather conditions (i.e. winds no
greater than 15 knots and waves no larger than 3 feet) are
expected friday night through this tuesday as primarily high
pressure ridging affects lake erie. however, on sunday, sw`erly
winds around 15 to 20 knots are expected to veer to nw`erly as a
cold front sweeps se`ward across lake erie. as a result, waves
as large as 4 to 5 feet are expected and another small craft
advisory will likely be needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 2 am edt friday through friday
morning for ohz007-009.
beach hazards statement from 2 am edt friday through friday
afternoon for ohz010-011.
beach hazards statement from 5 am edt friday through friday
afternoon for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from 5 am edt friday through friday
afternoon for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am to 11 am edt friday for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt friday for lez145-
146.
small craft advisory from 5 am to 5 pm edt friday for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...saunders
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
834 pm edt thu jun 11 2026

.key messages...

- chances for severe weather exist again tonight. damaging
wind, hail, heavy rain, and a few tornadoes are possible with
this severe weather threat.

- next chances for showers and storms return saturday night with
another cool frontal passage, bringing cooler temperatures
into low/mid 70s to lower 80s along with decreased humidity
across the area sunday and monday.

- a moderate swim risk exists along the southeast lake michigan
shoreline today and friday as waves reach 2 to 4 feet.
breaking waves and currents are expected. stay away from
dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls, and river outlets.
always have a flotation device with you in the water.

&&

.update...
issued at 833 pm edt thu jun 11 2026

tornado watch 318 has been issued through 06z for most of the
area. a very unstable air mass continues to advect back
northeast over the area early this evening within a ramping low
level jet. favorable low level hodo curvature enhanced by a
leftover boundary from earlier convection into areas west of
interstate 69, and 40-50 kts of bulk shear in the 0-3 km layer
continue to make tornadoes a concern. higher probabilities
remain for sig wind damage within any bowing segments.

storm mode as of this writing is still a little messy just
upstream with attempts at a few supercells in the pre-frontal
environment now getting into far nw in. these would carry a
tornado/hail/wind threat with an eventual merger into a qlcs
east through the area through the early overnight. latest hrrr
and wofs runs continue to suggest a weakening trend (becoming
more outflow dominant) as this activity gets into northwest oh,
though wind would still be a concern even if this occurs. a
local extension of the tor watch or a new svr watch may be
needed in our far eastern counties that were not included in
this watch.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 349 pm edt thu jun 11 2026

severe weather is still looking likely tonight. the main line
of storms will be associated with a cold front currently
located over central wi/ia and northwest mo and orientated in a
northeast to southwest manner. this front will push continue to
push eastward this evening and the timing still is looking good
for this front to approach our western edge of the cwa around 9
pm edt. now there is a concern that some scattered storms may
pop-up ahead of this front that could impact our area earlier
due to an old linear mcs associated with an old outflow boundary
that has transited eastward across eastern ia/mo and through
central il earlier today. current radar shows that some of that
activity has made it to the eastern il/western in border. with
the very unstable airmass still present it would not take much
to get storms to develop from any outflows that push out from
these storms.

all of the ingredients for severe weather will be present
this evening with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew
points in the upper 60s to low 70s in place across the cwa and
this will provide decent surface instability with about
2500-3500 j/kg of sb cape. the frontal boundary will also
provide a good lifting focal point (or even a stronger outflow
boundaries that may be present ahead of the front). effective
bulk shear values of 35 to 55 kts are available with the higher
values located across our northwestern portions of the cwa.
300-400 m2/s2 of sr helicity is also available ahead of the cold
front which will increase the tornado threat especially earlier
in the evening. spc currently has a majority of our area under
an enhanced severe storm risk this evening.

the aforementioned storms that are just to the west of our area
could affect the environment and mitigate some of the potential
available for when the front does arrive. so will need to see
how that pans out and could be a fly in the ointment. there also
is the expectation that storms will weaken the further east they
move through the night so the better chances for severe storms
will be further west but cannot rule out a few storms remaining
strong well into the overnight period if the storms can manage
to remain balanced and not be overwhelmed by a descending cold
pool. the storms should be through the area by 3 to 4 am edt and
again all threats are on the table but the most likely threat
will be winds and a few tornadoes. heavy rainfall will accompany
these storms but there will be good forward movement to help
keep the flooding risk at bay.

in the wake of the cold front we will have a cooler and drier
airmass move into the area and should provide a very nice couple
of mostly sunny spring days on friday and saturday with
temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. the important part is
the humidity will be decreased with dew points dropping back
into the 50s.

the next chance of showers and storms will arrive late saturday
and into sunday morning with another cool frontal boundary
pushing through. spc does currently have our area under a
marginal risk with that but the diurnal timing looks to perhaps limit
the potential of the storms and will need to monitor that once
we get through tonights event.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 641 pm edt thu jun 11 2026

main focus remains on timing of convective line expected to
track through ksbn mid-late evening and kfwa toward midnight.
shear and instability profiles definitely hint at the risk for
strong to severe convection with a brief period of 50 kt plus
winds and lifr/ifr conditions possible with the leading line.
vfr/dry then post-frontal into tomorrow otherwise with westerly
winds up around 12 knots.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...steinwedel
discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
708 pm edt thu jun 11 2026

.key messages...

- severe thunderstorms possible tonight, mainly between 9 pm and 1
am; damaging winds, large hail, and/or spin-up tornadoes possible.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend with
additional showers and some thunderstorms possible saturday night
into sunday morning.

&&

.aviation...

the upstream thunderstorm complex is the weather highlight for lower
mi tonight. the storms are tied to wi surface low pressure and the
southward trailing cold front that is pulled across lower mi as the
low moves toward the straits this evening. light southerly wind
ahead of the system maintains warm and humid air across the region
to support thunderstorm coverage along the cold front, however
intensity still carries some uncertainty, especially toward fnt and
mbs. flight conditions range widely as the line of storms moves
through the se mi terminal corridor followed closely by the cold
front, all of which exit eastward during the 06z to 10z time window
tonight. post front westerly wind carries in cooler and less humid
air with intervals of broken mvfr ceiling through about mid friday
morning. boundary layer growth then promotes cloud improvement into
scattered/shallow cumulus, and also leads to wind gusts in the 20 kt
range during the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorm timing from 04z to 06z remains on
track while still evaluating coverage and intensity trends. there is
a chance for the strongest storms to graze southward while a more
general storm pattern moves through the dtw area.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight and friday morning.

* moderate for thunderstorms from 04z to 06z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 323 pm edt thu jun 11 2026

discussion...

an anomalously muggy airmass persists today with heat indices
attempting to lift back into the 90s for parts of metro detroit
south. expired the heat advisory early as temperatures and dewpoints
have risen slower than forecast. heat indices are now only expected
to peak in 90s through the rest of today. cape values are on the
rise amidst low afternoon cloud fraction. this uptick in instability
prepares the atmosphere for nocturnal convection. an evening squall
line is emerging upstream, attendant to a dynamic cold front, which
tracks eastward into the area after dark. 11.18z kdtx raob shows a
lot of dry air still around with cin persisting around 580 mb and
825 mb preventing free convection.

cams offer slight differences in timing of the main convective line,
once it moves into southeast michigan. 9 pm appears to be the
earliest arrival time for western midland or lenawee counties,
before the line continues eastward across the rest of the region.
spc`s swody1 continues to advertise slight to enhanced risk for the
forecast area, while model trends indicate increasing potential for
a weaker progression as it moves through. the nocturnal timing
doesn`t help with a surface-based cape reduction, while the
reservoir of higher instability still lies well-off to the west,
over southwest lower and northern indiana. that is where the
greatest instability gradient lies with potential for discrete cells
before they eventually merge with the main line. a bow-echo should
emerge with enhanced rij dynamics and very strong shear as the line
reaches the local area presenting highest confidence in a severe
wind threat. the greatest adjustment this forecast cycle is focused
along the northern extent of the anticipated linear convection.
confidence is falling in sufficient instability for widespread
severe hazards north of i-69, therefore the area of greatest concern
lies between the ohio border and m-59, especially for areas west of
us-23. 30 knots of ebs and 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km srh favors rotating
updrafts, and some hodographs indicate higher potential for qlcs
tornadogenesis. lower confidence in severe-level winds with
increasing eastward extent across the cwa.

governing/digging mid-level shortwave clears overhead by 09z friday,
ushering the cold front out. gradient/column flow veers zonally as
500 mb heights rebound with increasing stabilization. surface high
pressure builds southeastward, out of the plains, and into the lower
ohio valley. forecast soundings indicate aggressive column drying
during the morning hours with pwats dropping from 1.75 inches to
0.50 inches between 00z and 12z friday. no precipitation concerns
the rest of the day with limited diurnal cumulus response. lower
column dynamics still support renewed breeziness with a dry 5 kft
boundary layer, mixing down 20-25 knot flow.

the weekend forecast features a mix of warm and dry weather saturday
followed by another cold front with precipitation saturday night
into sunday morning. 850 mb temperatures climb into the teens
(celsius) saturday, with highs in the mid-upper 80s and ample
sunshine. another wave then moves in late saturday into sunday with
potential for some showers and thunderstorms. much cooler air fills
in behind the front marking a more tranquil period of weather from
sunday into early next week. thermal troughing keeps highs below
normal, in the low-mid 70s through at least wednesday. the next
chance for rainfall comes sometime tuesday.

marine...

the next line of storms is expected to pass through the southern
great lakes later this evening into tonight around 11pm to 3am just
ahead of a cold front. the front will be tied to a low pressure
system lifting from southern wi into eastern ontario. winds will
increase from the southwest, turning more westerly, behind the front
offering a period of gusts to near 30 knots for saginaw bay and the
tip of the thumb tonight into friday morning so a small craft
advisory is in effect. in the vicinity of the storms tonight, wind
gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail would be the main threats
with these storms. this front will pass through early friday
morning, but a second cold front will set up just west of the great
lakes to start the weekend which will keep elevated southwesterly
winds across the lakes through much of saturday before the front
then sweeps east by sunday morning. winds will stay elevated around
20 knots, but out of the northwest sunday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt friday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kgk
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.