Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
208 am edt tue apr 14 2026

.what has changed...
the bulk of the forecast remains unchanged regarding the upcoming
systems. it is worth noting that confidence in any severe potential
remains low, but is expected to increase with future model runs.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of convection possible in the next 48 hours, but
there remains a high level uncertainty in the potential across the
area.

2) a strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area
late week into the weekend.

3) above average temperatures are expected to persist through
saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a boundary slowly sagging south today should stall just north of the
area. multiple low pressure system are expected to travel along this
boundary through thursday, resulting in multiple chances for
precipitation and thunderstorms. there are two notable periods of
potential strong to severe storms in the next 48 hours, but there
remains little confidence in the evolution of either system.

the first push of storms is expected late tonight into tuesday
morning as decaying convection from the northern great lakes moves
into the area. given the timing, limited instability will be
present, however a strong llj of 35-45 knots will assist in
maintaining some storms. cannot rule out a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms, but highest confidence in this occurring would be
across the northwestern portion of the area. primary threat will be
wind, although hail is not out of the question. right now, spc
highlights this potential over the area with a d1 marginal risk.

the tricky part of this forecast is figuring out how quickly this
morning convection pushes east and allows the atmosphere to rebound
ahead of the next system. some hi-res guidance, including the hrrr,
suggest that there will be two lines of convection in the morning
which would result in storms lingering much longer. on the flip
side, models such as the arw having convection moving east of the
area by late morning. if the hrrr is correct, thunderstorms will
likely still occur overnight but much of the severe potential will
remain limited. if the arw is correct, then strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area is possible late tuesday evening into
the overnight hours. with convection departing earlier in the day,
ample waa and deep layer moisture will be able to surge across the
area, enhance by daytime heating and increasing instability. this
should provide a decent environment for strong to severe storms to
occur with the primary concern being strong to damaging winds. the
only common thing amongst the spread in models is that the
convection that does push into the area will likely be decaying
remnants of severe weather expected across the upper midwest
tomorrow. spc currently has a d2 slight risk to highlight this
potential threat.

stay tuned for the latest forecast as this system continues to evolve
and models hopefully get into a better agreement in handling what
will happen in the next 48 hours.

key message 2...
a deepening upper level trough is expected to push south across the
central conus on friday into the weekend, moving a strongest low
pressure system and associated boundaries through the area. this
system may once again pose a severe weather risk, although
confidence is fairly low this far out. there is high confidence that
areawide showers will occur this weekend as a strong cold front
moves east. on the backside of that boundary, temperatures will once
again dip, although this time to near normal, with highs falling
into the 50s by sunday.

key message 3...
temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the bulk of
this week with highs consistently in the 70s, possibly touching 80
at times. overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures only
falling into the 60s. cpc has highlighted the area in a potential
for prolonged above average temperatures for the next two week. it
is worth noting that after the cold front saturday, temperatures
will briefly fall back to near normal (in the 50s) before once again
increasing next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
conditions have improved to vfr behind showers and thunderstorms
from earlier this evening. active stretch of weather expected
through the taf period with multiple possible rounds of
thunderstorms, some strong to severe possible. the first round
of thunderstorms will enter from the northwest this afternoon
around 15z/tue and push southeast across terminals through
~19-20z/tue. have timed out impacts to terminals with the
initial round of convection using tempo groups. the development
on the next round of thunderstorms may hinge on what occurs
this afternoon. as of right now, these thunderstorms will
develop along and east of cle around 03z/wed with a stronger
area of thunderstorms pushing southward across lake erie
starting at ~04-06z/wed. for the taf, opted for a prob30 group
at tol/fdy and the 30-hour cle taf for the evening/overnight
possible convection. strong to damaging wind gusts and ifr/mvfr
reductions to cigs/vis will be possible in any stronger
thunderstorm that moves over a terminal in this timeframe.

elevated southwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts 20-30 knots
will remain in place through this evening. highest wind gusts
will occur this afternoon and in any convection. winds shift
southerly tonight and diminish to 10 knots or less through the
overnight hours.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected in
showers and thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly winds remain elevated between 15-20
knots through today. given the offshore component, the highest
wave heights will remain across the open waters of lake erie.
southerly to southwesterly winds 12-18 knots will remain across
the lake through the end of the week as multiple systems move
through the region. periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
will be present through thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1220 am edt tue apr 14 2026

.key messages...

- the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms,
possibly strong to severe, exist through thursday. the most
likely period appears to be tuesday night into thursday, but
confidence remains on the lower side with finer details
regarding impacts and intensity.

- hydro concerns could increase for mid to late week depending
on tracks of successive convective rounds.

- above normal temperatures will continue into this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 238 pm edt mon apr 13 2026

challenging near and short term forecast through tuesday night
and even into wednesday with a series of mid level and
convectively induced disturbances expected to transverse the
region. certainty is highest in plenty of moisture and
instability (steep mid-level lapse rates and sbcape of 1k to 2k
j/kg) around for any of these waves. certainty drops
considerably with regards to timing and impacts of what could be
multiple rounds of convection in some areas. as a result, hard
to make any larger, wholesale changes to the forecast into
tuesday as we wait to see how things evolve. will break things
down as best as i can.

to kick things off, we are closely monitoring a mid level
disturbance moving through western il with an area of showers and
storms attempting to slowly expand which may impact west/northwest
areas near/after 20z. cams are all over the place on evolution (or
lack thereof) of this area or possibly separate development later
this afternoon or evening. as noted above parameters favor at least
a threat of stg-svr storms with hail and maybe gusty winds becoming
a threat with the stronger activity. will maintain slgt chc to chc
pops for now and adjust as needed based on trends. some solutions
also show development closer to 00z with a west to east band of
convection impacting northern areas. this seems less plausible
at this point, but cannot be entirely discounted with both a
severe and possibly hydro threat occurring.

confidence is high on development of stg-svr storms across portions
of mn and wi in a very favorable environment this evening
(swody1 enhanced risk outlines this). much like the near term
period, cams differ considerably on how this area evolves with
some solutions tracking the activity due east and others
suggesting a se propagation towards us late tonight into early
tuesday with potential stg-svr storms and possibly some hydro
issues (although this should be rather progressive). again,
limited changes to pops for the time being.

overnight convection will play somewhat of a factor wrt the threat
for severe storms tue afternoon-early wed. isolated storms could
develop during the afternoon and early evening hours on any
lingering boundaries, but the greatest focus will start to our west
across eastern ia/n il/s wi during the afternoon hours and then
possibly expanding east and continuing to organize. again, cam
solutions on the evolution of this into our area are all over the
place, but signals are strongest for at least some convection
tuesday night into early wednesday with both a severe and hydro
threat quite possible. the new spcdy2 outlook remains unchanged with
the eastern edge of an enhanced risk to our immediate w and n, with
the area in a slight risk for mainly a hail and wind threat. not
going to even try to make many updates at this point.

the active weather continues wednesday into thursday as a somewhat
stronger trough pushes into the area, with models somewhat in
agreement on more widespread showers and storms with maybe more of a
hydro vs severe threat. the area is presently in a marginal risk of
severe and excessive rainfall risk. with all the challenges, not
even going to try to make changes that far out.

in the wake of the trough, one more push of warm air commences with
highs friday well into the 70s and maybe some 80s. shower/storm
chances will increase late friday night into saturday ahead of an
even stronger trough that will eventually send temps back closer to,
if not normal sunday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1219 am edt tue apr 14 2026

the mid level disturbance and zone of stronger advective forcing
responsible for last evenings convective cluster is now drifting
across the eastern great lakes where some isolated showers
exist. attention is now turning upstream to a more organized
convective complex from northeast iowa into east central
wisconsin. this thunderstorm complex is exhibiting both upwind
and downwind propagation with better upwind development and
southward propagation becoming more defined over past hour or
two across southwest wisconsin into northeast iowa. this
tendency for southeast propagation into better instability
axis/low level inflow should continue overnight, although more
vigorous convective elements may remain across northern illinois
based on instability profiles. nonetheless, would expect some
outflow winds and some showers and isolated storms to spread
southeast into northern indiana after 10z or 11z this morning
with a potential of some wind gusts up to 40 knots. longevity of
this feature is a little unclear in terms of kfwa with some
surface based inhibition probably weakening these storms with
southeast extent. a remnant outflow boundary from these storms
could trigger additional thunderstorms this afternoon, but
greater coverage/more organized thunderstorm development is not
expected until later tuesday evening. a period of mvfr cigs will
likely accompany the outflow boundary this morning, with
improvements to vfr this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1255 am edt tue apr 14 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of warm conditions throughout the work week with daytime
temperatures in the 70s each day for most locations.

- scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop tonight.
potential exists for isolated severe storms capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail. locally heavy rainfall also
possible.

- an active pattern will maintain periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms tuesday through thursday. each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall.

- there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tuesday night,
mainly between 8 pm and 2 am. storms will be capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

&&

.aviation...

ascent provided by low level jet and warm advection will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the terminals overnight. line of
convection trailing a center of low pressure is expected to push
across southeast michigan in the 8-12z timeframe. timed out tempo
group for thunderstorms from north to south. low level saturation
and cloud is anticipated early tuesday, included prevailing mvfr
ceilings. dry conditions for much of tuesday with another period of
thunderstorm activity after 03z 4/15.

dtw/d21 convection...thunderstorm activity is possible between 10-
14z tuesday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and tuesday.

* moderate for thunderstorms early tuesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 252 pm edt mon apr 13 2026

discussion...

higher magnitude warmth within breezy southwest wind marking
conditions late afternoon. high temperatures again arriving a solid
15 to 20 degrees above normal - mid to upper 70s most locations.
general mid level stability will hold into the early evening hours
as shortwave upper ridging propagates through, ensuring dry
conditions persist into the early evening hours. attention then
turns to two seperate areas of focus for convective development and
expansion tonight. remnant convective cluster evident on water vapor
and radar lifting northeast into northern il now forecast by an
increasing number of hi res solutions to maintain some degree of
integrity as it ejects across southern lake mi/northern in. this will
occur with the backdrop of another period of nocturnal warm/moist
air advection as 850 mb flow strengthens within southwest flow across
the warm sector. forecast now highlights an increasing potential for
convective development/expansion within the 00z-06z window as
associated ascent works through. any late evening activity likely to
be slightly elevated as nocturnal boundary layer cooling affords a
standard stable near surface layer. with that, isolated deeper
updrafts plausible given the steepness of lapse rates above the
stable layer, with adequate bulk shear for greater organization. this
maintains potential for some instances of larger hail and gusty
winds, in addition to brief heavy rainfall. additional convective
organization and expansion expected this evening along/north of a
frontal boundary extending across central wi. this activity likely
to consolidate with time as it spills east/southeast into the early
morning hours, but mixed signal yet on both trajectory and scale.
steep mid level lapse rates will maintain a risk for hail with any
healthier cores. latest spc day 1 outlook continues to highlight all
of southeast michigan within a marginal risk for severe weather for
tonight.

the resident airmass remains virtually unchanged heading into
tuesday. some degree of stability may exist for a portion of the
daylight period, pending the coverage and pace of exit of overnight
activity. solid diurnal destabilization likely by afternoon, at
least across the south, where mlcape pushes 1500+ as temps again
climb well into the 70s and dewpoint hovers in the lower 60s. some
evidence of a weak frontal zone or differential heating boundary
bisecting the area. this could offer a lower coverage of convection
for peak heating. otherwise, still no evidence of more meaningful
forced ascent materializing prior to 00z tuesday evening.

existing mid level southwest flow ripe with minor perturbations and
bouts of greater moist isentropic ascent continue to present a
favorable, yet challenging background environment to gauge
convective potential locally tuesday night. there remains strong
model evidence for convective initation and expansion to occur in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary across northern il/southern wi and
western lower mi tuesday evening. very supportive environment will
exist for the maintenance and possible upscale growth of this
activity into portions of southeast michigan sometime within the 00z
to 04z window. while the nocturnal timing brings lessening
instability with time near the surface, mucape projected to exceed
2000 j/kg. frontal zone now draped across the saginaw valley and
thumb will offer a greater focus across this region. in fact,
noteworthy backed/southeast low level flow at the frontal interface
gives pause to the possibility for organized updrafts to rotate. a
mix of discreet and multicellular clusters will bring the risk of all
hazards - strong winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. all of
southeast michigan remains with a slight risk for severe weather
tuesday night. some areas of heavy rainfall also a concern given
expectation for efficient rates given high end moisture content /pw
near 1.3"/.

mild/moist airmass still entrenched wednesday and thursday. outgoing
forecast continues to highlight expectation for a high coverage of
showers and thunderstorms wednesday, but some downward revision in
precip chances possible as greater focus may again hold to the south
and west during the daylight period. another nocturnal convective
response likely wed night as moisture transport increases along the
nose of the low level jet. periodic chances for additional showers
and thunderstorms lasting into thursday. dry and continued mild
friday, then rain chances increase again early next weekend.

marine...

shortwave ridging this afternoon has led to pleasant marine
conditions under a modest southwest breeze. pockets of 25 knot gusts
are observed over land, but quickly drop off offshore where profiles
are more stable. attention turns to an upstream cluster of
thunderstorms over northern illinois that will track into southeast
michigan after sunset this evening. these storms will be capable of
large hail to an inch, frequent lightning, and isolated gusty winds
over 35 knots. this will be the first of several rounds of nocturnal
thunderstorms this week as multiple waves of low pressure ripple
along a stalled frontal zone. each round of storms will bring
potential for strong to severe storms to the southern half of lake
huron, lake st. clair, and western lake erie. the front is forecast
to hover around the saginaw bay area, with northerly winds emerging
north of front and southwest winds for points south. wind and wave
concerns this week will be tied to thunderstorm activity.

hydrology...

an active pattern will bring periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms tonight through thursday. each episode brings the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall, particularly where focused
areas of thunderstorms develop. rainfall amounts in excess of half
an inch will be possible for a round of rain tonight. additional
rainfall between one and two inches currently forecast to fall
between tuesday and thursday. while widespread flooding is not
expected, some minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and urban
areas along with rises on area rivers are possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mr
marine.......mv
hydrology....mr


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