Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
819
fxus61 kcle 251440
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
940 am est wed feb 25 2026

.what has changed...
increased pop`s slightly in nw pa and ashtabula county, oh for
the next several hours to account for light snow showers that
continue to blossom over/near eastern lake erie amidst moist
isentropic ascent preceding a subtle shortwave trough axis
aloft. these snow showers may impact nw pa and far-ne oh
through this mid-afternoon and produce a coating of fresh snow
accumulation, especially along grassy surfaces.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered lake effect snow showers are possible this
afternoon and evening in northwest pennsylvania.

2) quiet weather and warmer temperatures are expected on friday
and saturday.

3) a system may bring precipitation to the region on sunday and
monday, though there is a lot of uncertainty regarding storm
track, precipitation type, and subsequent impacts.

&&

.discussion...
1) warm air advection will allow temperatures to rise into the
upper 30s to low 40s early this afternoon before a cold front
swings through, bringing overnight low temperatures down into
the upper 10s to low 20s tonight. a cold airmass will move in
behind the cold front with 850 mb temperatures down to -14 c
contributing to lake effect showers this evening into tonight. a
mostly ice covered lake erie (~60-70%), short duration of cold
air, and air that just isn`t that cold will limit shower
coverage and area extent to mainly northwest pennsylvania.
little to no snow accumulation expected.

2) high pressure over the area on thursday departs to the east
coast by friday and saturday. as low pressure moves eastward
north of the great lakes, broad southwest flow will lead to some
pleasant weather to end the month, as we expect above normal
temperatures and some sunshine both days.

3) early next week, a baroclinic zone will set over the region,
with high pressure and a cold airmass to the north, and broad
southwest flow of warm, moist air from the south. many models
have isentropic lift leading to an area of winter weather
impacting the region sometime sunday night into early next week.
there is a lot of uncertainty with the details of this system,
especially regarding the strength of the northern high pressure
to our north (which could potentially push precipitation south
away from the area if its strong enough), moisture content, and
location/track of a low along the baroclinic zone. however,
ensemble guidance as a whole has trended towards higher qpf/snow
and higher probabilities of accumulating snowfall, and these
trends are worth paying attention to moving forward.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
generally expect any lower ceilings to improve to vfr across
most of the area early this morning, although lingering mvfr
ceilings will likely persist at kyng/keri through mid to late
morning. lake effect clouds may keep ceilings in the 3500 to
5000 ft agl range across portions of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through tonight, especially if any light
lake effect snow showers manage to develop.

southwest winds 8 to 14 knots are expected early this morning
before winds shift to the west and increase to 10 to 20 knots
with gusts to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. gusts may
periodically approach 30 knots this afternoon, best chance at
kfdy. winds will diminish after sunset with light and variable
winds developing overnight.

outlook...non-vfr possible as snow moves southeast across the
area saturday night.

&&

.marine...
west winds to 15 to 20 knots with periods of winds as high as
25 knots are expected as a cold front moves east across lake
erie today. west/northwest winds will gradually diminish as the
pressure gradient relaxes tonight and expect wind speeds to
decrease to 10 knots or less by late tonight. light westerly
flow is expected during the day friday before winds shift to the
south/southwest and increase a bit thursday night. winds will
gradually increase as a cold front approaches from the west
friday and wind speeds to about 20 knots are likely late friday
into early saturday. winds will diminish for a brief period as
they shift to the north/northwest late saturday afternoon into
saturday evening, but expect north winds to increase to 10 to 20
knots as strong high pressure builds in behind the cold front
saturday night into sunday.

while small craft advisories remain suspended due to extensive
ice coverage across the majority of the lake, waves in ice free
areas may build to 3 to 6 feet during periods of stronger winds.
any wind shifts and elevated winds will result in movement of
lake ice, which could impact shipping lanes.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/saunders
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
778
fxus63 kiwx 251141
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
641 am est wed feb 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry and mostly sunny through friday.

- highs in the 30s and 40s through thursday, climbing into the
50s on friday.

- light snow is possible at times this weekend but confidence is
very low this far out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 311 am est wed feb 25 2026

light snow has exited the area and mainly quiet weather is expected
the rest of this week. shortwave and associated fgen set to swing
through the oh valley tonight are now expected to pass south of our
cwa. a few flakes may clip our far southern zones but expect the
vast majority of our area to remain dry. temps near to slightly
below normal will remain in place through tomorrow with highs
generally in the 30s (low 40s south) and lows around 20f. cool
northwest flow will likely generate some lake effect clouds in our
ne half today but still expect a fair amount of sun, particularly in
our sw zones. after some passing mid/high clouds from system to our
south tonight, thu should be mostly sunny as well. mid/upper level
flow briefly flattens on fri allowing upstream thermal ridge to
crash over our area. 850mb temps climb above 5c in strong sw flow by
late fri. mostly sunny skies will push afternoon temps well into the
50s (especially south of the toll road). cold front crosses the
area fri night but most models keep this frontal passage dry.

next chance of precip arrives late sat as a series of weak
shortwaves act on a very tight baroclinic zone. this first wave is
very weak and the fgen response appears paltry at this point. still,
most guidance suggests some brief, light precip late sat afternoon
into the evening. a dusting up to an inch of snow is possible. much
better chance for more substantive precip arrives sun night. model
guidance still showing a lot of variability here given the subtle
forcing mechanisms at work but the potential does exist for someone
in the ohio valley to see precip, with accumulating snow a
possibility on the northern edges. still plenty of time for
adjustments this far out, though. overall pattern looks warmer and
wetter as we head into days 6-10, though details are highly
nebulous at this point.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 636 am est wed feb 25 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals through the
period, with wsw winds shifting w-nw through the period. gusts
around 25 knots are possible late this morning into the
afternoon, then become light and variable overnight.

mvfr ceilings around 2500ft are possible briefly at ksbn between
15-18z, but confidence was not high enough to include anything
beyond a tempo group. it`s possible the 2500 ft ceilings behind
the second cold front moving through today (upstream in mn/wi as
of this writing) stay north of the terminal or lift to vfr as
the progress e-se.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
182
fxus63 kdtx 251030
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
530 am est wed feb 25 2026

.key messages...

- chance of snow showers/flurries through this morning and
afternoon.

- seasonable temperatures today and tomorrow. warmer friday.

- trending colder over the weekend with increasing chance for
snowfall.

&&

.aviation...

initial pocket of lower stratus tied to modest cold air advection
will lift to the east this morning. this may offer a brief window
for limited cloud coverage with a period of vfr. trailing cold front
arrives late morning and early afternoon. renewed expansion of lower
stratus at high mvfr to low vfr ceiling height expected during this
time. this may also provide a favorable environment for light snow
shower or flurry development. greater probability exists from ptk
northward, where a heavier snow shower could offer brief ifr
visibility restrictions. prevailing westerly winds turning gusty,
peaking near 25 knots at times through the afternoon. lower stratus
likely lingers into the evening, before clearing potential increase
with time tonight. wind gust frequency and magnitude steadily
diminishes with the loss of daytime heating.

for dtw...a few intervals of very light snow showers or flurries
possible today.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning. high this
afternoon and evening, then low again tonight.

* high for precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 355 am est wed feb 25 2026

discussion...

cyclonic flow over the great lakes as cold air advection increases
throughout the morning while 850 mb temperatures of -10c to -16c
are drawn into into southeast michigan by this afternoon. sufficient
delta ts over lake michigan and the arrival of a trailing mid-level
wave will be enough to produce lake snow showers/flurries through
this morning and through the afternoon. steeper low level lapse
rates under the greater mid level support will bring potential for
better banding of snow showers focused mainly north of i-69 where
best lake moisture flux will reside. light lake effect snow showers
and flurries expected across the rest of southeast michigan with
better snow shower activity holding off until the afternoon across
the metro region when 850mb temperatures push to around -12c in the
cloud layer. the convective snow showers north of i-69 will have
potential to produce snowfall accumulations to around a half inch
with lower probability for localized amounts achieving an inch or
more. most areas south of i-69 will see a dusting of accumulation to
possibly a tenth or two for any overachieving snow showers. lower
level lapse rates will also support gusty west winds of 30-35 mph
during the day that result in wind chills in the teens. should get
some scattering of clouds out tonight that will help overnight lows
dip into the high single digits and teens. lighter winds allow wind
chills to only approach 0 degrees for tomorrow morning.

the upper level pattern will exhibit split flow and direct a
developing system well to our south and keep michigan largely free
of any precipitation for thursday while a high pressure moves through.
highs thursday will be just on the cool side of normal with low-mid
30s for most areas and upper 20s in the thumb. high pressure slides
east thursday night as a low pressure system pivots across central
ontario friday. this brings warm advection with the increasing
southwest flow and a decent shot at temperatures across southern
portions of the cwa achieving the 50 degree mark. the attendant cold
front with the low passes through the state friday night/saturday
morning, but lack of meaningful moisture should keep conditions dry.

mid level troughing and associated cold advection will then gain
greater influence on the region over the weekend leading to a
notable drop in temperatures. the next chance for precipitation will
be on saturday in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone and any mid
level fgen that is able to materialize over the area. still some
variability in where the better qpf axis sets up. temperatures should
be cold enough by the time precipitation chances arrive for p-type
of snow.

marine...

passage of a cold front this morning has shifted winds to the west,
with a much colder airmass spilling into the region. combination of
colder air and moisture flux off the lakes leads to lake effect snow
showers across lake huron through most of the day. high pressure
then builds in tonight and thursday with light winds gradually
veering to the southwest by afternoon. the next low pressure system
moves into ontario thursday night, sending another chance of snow
through the northern great lakes along elevated portions of its warm
front. increasingly organized southwest flow then develops friday as
the low deepens and progresses east, dragging a cold front across
the region early saturday morning. the frontal passage is the next
opportunity for wind and waves impacts across the great lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.