Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
175
fxus61 kcle 051159
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
759 am edt sun jul 5 2026

.what has changed...
patchy dense fog is possible through sunrise this morning. the
potential for localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding has slightly increased for today as well.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through
monday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. localized
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding may be possible today.

2) temperatures will return back to near average today through
tuesday, before becoming slightly above normal towards mid to
late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the main weather concern for today will be a slow moving low
pressure system tracking eastward across the upper ohio valley
and lower great lakes region. first off this morning, there is
some patchy dense fog across far neoh and nwpa. we have a sps
for this patchy fog through sunrise. if trends become
widespread, we may have to put out a short-fused dense fog
advisory this early morning. high-res model guidance that the
weak low pressure system or mcv currently over northern indiana
this morning will slowly track eastward today across northern
ohio and western pennsylvania. pwat values are tropical around
1.8 inches. steering flow is weak around 15 knots or less. we
are expected periodic showers and thunderstorms to develop in
association with the slow moving mcv east to west across the
area. some localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
may be possible with rainfall rates up to 2.0 inches. any
clusters of stronger convection could potentially support a
brief cold pool organization and associated marginal risk for
damaging wind gusts. spc has much of the area highlighted in a
day 1 outlook for severe weather due to an isolated damaging
wind threat. most of the convection should weekend and decrease
in coverage after sunset this evening.

we will rinse and repeat this diurnally driven convection and
rain chances for monday, especially over the southeastern cwa or
areas along and east of i-71. rain chances will decrease by
tuesday and wednesday with weak high pressure building into the
ohio valley. a broad trough will swing through the great lakes
region late this week and bring a cold front across the area
thursday into friday. likely pops will return into the forecast
by the end of the week with scattered showers and storms again.

key message 2...
due to added cloud cover and higher rain chances today and
monday, temperatures will be closer to seasonable averages for
early july. high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today through tuesday. high temps will increase slightly above
average by wednesday and thursday into the middle and upper 80s,
though heat indices should remain below 100. seasonable
temperatures are expected friday into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
some fog and mist is ongoing at 12z, mainly across eastern oh
and into northwestern pa. there are pockets of dense fog,
including at yng. expect this fog/mist to gradually improve
through 14z. outside of convection conditions should return to
mainly vfr through this afternoon. non-vfr ceilings and
visibility may return to some sites tonight.

main focus and challenge with this set of tafs remains shower
and thunderstorm potential. a batch of showers and storms ahead
of an area of weak low pressure is ongoing across northwest oh
and southeast mi as of 12z, with impacts mainly confined to tol
but perhaps clipping mfd and cle before 15z too. this weak low
will drift east-southeast into northern ohio along a slowly
sagging cold front through the afternoon. we may see a brief
break in activity later this morning as the current batch shifts
out over the lake and into canada, with the low and front
expected to focus another round of afternoon and evening showers
and storms. impacts are most likely at tol, fdy, mfd, cak and
perhaps yng this afternoon and early evening near and south of
the front, with lower potential at cle. thunderstorm potential
decreases this evening, though some showers may linger tonight.

light and variable but mainly southerly winds early this
morning will gradually shift more northeasterly through the day
today as the front gradually sags across the area. winds will
remain under 10kt outside of any convection today, with a few
gusts over 30kt possible with any stronger storms.

outlook...non-vfr with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible through tuesday afternoon. scattered thunderstorms are
also possible thursday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds will gradually become established across the
lake today as low pressure approaches from the west and as a
cold front pushes south of the lake. these northeast winds will
increase to 10-20kt tonight and monday, gradually weakening
monday night into tuesday. this will bring a period of 1 to 3
foot waves tonight through parts of tuesday, with potential for
a brief period or two of 4 footers mainly between the islands
and willowick when winds push closer to 20kt tonight and monday.
the wind and wave forecast were nudged up a bit higher with
this package, and would support marginal small craft/beach
hazards headlines for a few zones in the central basin. because
the forecast is very marginal for a headline and conditions
don`t ramp up until tonight will hold off on the headlines with
this cycle, but they may well be coming today. it will still be
on the choppy side on tuesday though conditions will be on a
slow improvement. expect tranquil conditions on wednesday, with
the next cold front bringing slightly elevated winds and some
thunderstorm potential to the lake thursday into friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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814
fxus63 kiwx 051735
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
135 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms (40-60%) will impact some areas
this afternoon into early evening with locally heavy rain the
main concern. isolated wind gusts to 40 mph are also possible.

- a few showers may linger east of i-69 overnight into monday
morning with some further development along and south of route
24 late morning into early afternoon monday.

- drier and somewhat less humid conditions arrive for tuesday
and wednesday before chances for showers and storms return for
the remainder of the forecast.

- there is a moderate risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 100 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

near term focus remains on a combination of a departing mcv and
another weak trough dropping south across the area over the next 24
hours or so. an area of partial clearing has allowed for the
initial development of showers along and north of us 30. these
should continue to intensify and expand in coverage through the
remainder of the afternoon aided by mucape of 1000-1500 j/kg.
however, a weak flow and very limited shear will result in
little severe threat, with the main concerns being heavy rain as
warm layer pushes over 14,000 ft and pwats of 1.8 to 2" are in
place. no plans for any sort of watch, but short fuse flood
headlines may be needed where areas of heavy rain have occurred
in recent days or where training cells impact a given area.

coverage should diminish after sunset, but many models keep at least
some widely scattered to scattered showers around, especially in
eastern areas as the trough moves across the area. by morning it
should bisect the forecast area with some hints of renewed
development late morning. while current pops may be too far nw, have
left in place for now. any precip should wind down by sunset monday
if not before.

high pressure builds in for a few days, allowing dewpoints to lower
somewhat (60s vs 70s) and ending precip chances until late wed night
and moreso the remainder of the week as a series of waves move in as
a semi zonal flow sets up. positioning of a stationary boundary and
influences of multiple rounds of storms makes it difficult to bring
much detail to the later periods so blend of models left in place.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 133 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

an area of vorticity will be slow to move eastward during this
period and surface heating may be enough to ignite some showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms this afternoon. severe weather probably
stays at a minimum given weak flow. the low level moisture content
contributes to the low level cloud potential reestablishing itself
tonight with at least mvfr stratus and perhaps into ifr as well.
visby probably mostly stays in mvfr. winds will be out of the north,
but generally stay at or below 10 kts sustained through the
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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444
fxus63 kdtx 051901
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
301 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

.key messages...

- lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight.

- dry conditions prevail monday and tuesday, with highs mainly in
the 80s.

&&

.discussion...

a compact mid level deformation axis associated with a meso scale
mid level short wave feature produce widespread rain across the
southern sections of the forecast area today. the highest rainfall
totals (estimated at 2 to 4 inches) occurred early in the day south
of the i-94 corridor where deep convection occurred. this wave
continues to slowly depart to the east. remnant mid level
convergence/deformation looks to persist into the early evening,
with the convergence axis now shifting farther north toward the i-69
corridor. various high res solutions indicate some areas of
showers/isolated thunderstorms to continue to affect the area
through the night as se mi will continue to reside within deep layer
moist axis and within lingering deformation on the north side of a
broad 850mb low centered over ohio. ongoing surface based instability
development has mainly been focused across the western sections of
the cwa late this afternoon, with weak elevated instability
persisting through the night.

mid level ridging and sfc high pressure will expand across the
western and northern great lakes monday, while mid level troughing
holds across the eastern great lakes. the resident deep layer
moisture will trend southward during the course of the day while
east-northeast winds gradually advect a drier and more stable
airmass across se mi. model soundings indicate mixing depths limited
to 5k feet, which will equate to forecast highs in the low 80s
considering early day cloud cover. the easterly flow will warrant a
little cooler readings downwind of lake huron. the mid level ridge
and associated surface high pressure will become centered over lower
mi tuesday, with the corresponding deep layer subsidence and dry air
supporting a dry forecast. full solar insolation will boost
afternoon highs to low to mid 80s.

the mid to late week pattern will feature a zonal flow across the
northern tier of the us with the next feature of interest being a
progressive short wave and associated frontal boundary. nbm places
the best chance for convective with this feature on thursday, although
the spectrum of ensemble members suggest a timing anywhere from
thursday into friday. the thermal region through the end of the week
supports temps near to slightly above normal readings through the
end of the week (highs mainly in the 80s).

&&

.marine...

rain showers and a low chance for a thunderstorm will continue
across the southern great lakes as a humid airmass continues to
reside across the great lakes. high pressure will build in tomorrow
and tuesday which will greatly mitigate rain chances and will
maintain light winds. the exception will be through the saginaw bay,
as the favorable northeast flow brings localized stronger winds with
gusts 20 to 25 knots. small craft advisories remain in effect across
the saginaw bay today but will drop tonight as gusts diminish aob 20
knots. winds are expected to peak back around 20 to 22 knots
tomorrow, but will remain just shy of small craft advisory
thresholds.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

aviation...

a slow moving low pressure over nw ohio will continue to move away
from lower mi, but an upper level front will remain over southern
lower mi through much of the night as it slowly drifts south. these
two systems will be the focus for more redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. the storms will
have ample moisture available which will produce locally heavy
rainfall that could reduce visibilities below 3 miles. that upper
level front may have enough lift to bring one last chance of rain
showers for the detroit area toward daybreak.

all of this moisture with the weak forcing of those features
mentioned above will create generally mvfr ceilings for this
afternoon and right into tonight. some marginally drier air finally
starts to work from northwest to southeast overnight which will
scatter out the broken mvfr ceilings, first at mbs before 03z but
not until after 12z for the detroit area sites.

d21/dtw convection...chance for thunderstorms exists this afternoon
and early evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon through tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......am
aviation.....rbp


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.