Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 271117
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
717 am edt wed may 27 2026

.what has changed...
there are no impactful forecast changes with this update.
scattered showers will be possible near central ohio today. a
drier weather forecast will return for the rest of the week and
weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered rain showers will be possible today south of the
highway 30 corridor.

2) dry and very pleasant weather expected thursday through early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
there is a weak area of low pressure over the lower ohio valley
this morning that is nearly stationary. scattered showers and
isolated thunder will be possible today mainly south of the
highway 30 corridor. a cold front will drop southward across the
eastern great lakes later today and help push this area of low
pressure out of the region. high temperatures will range from
the lower 80s north of highway 30 this afternoon and mid to
upper 70s southward. rainfall amounts will be light up to a
couple tenths of an inch possible.

key message 2...
a large area of high pressure will build across the great lakes
region thursday into friday. pleasant weather conditions are
expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend. high
temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s on thursday.
slightly warmer weather is expected on friday with highs in the
middle to upper 70s. a backdoor cold front will slide through
the area friday night with slightly cooler temperatures expected
on saturday and sunday in the lower to middle 70s. temperatures
will slowly climb to above average by early to middle of next
week into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
rain is begin to move north across central ohio and is forecast
to impact kfdy, kmfd, and kcak over the next few hours through
18-22z today. there may be periods of lowered visibility down to
mvfr throughout the day that these sites, but generally will be
vfr. rain will move east this evening and dry weather is
expected across all terminals for the remainder of the taf
period. winds will be light and variable for much of the period
before shifting to be more northerly around 00z tonight.

outlook...vfr is largely favored from thursday through sunday.

&&

.marine...
a weak cold front will sweep southward across lake erie this
afternoon/evening with minimal impacts. ahead of the front,
winds will be light and variable at under 5 knots, then shift to
be predominantly out of the north and increase to 5-10 knots
this evening behind the front. high pressure builds in across
the region on thursday and persist through this sunday. winds
will be primarily out of the north at 5-10 knots and with a
brief increase saturday night to 10-15 knots out of the
northeast. waves throughout the period will be less than 3 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 271346
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
946 am edt wed may 27 2026

.key messages...

- showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm along and south
of us route 24 should diminish in coverage this afternoon.
mainly dry weather is then expected for the remainder of the
week.

- seasonably warm for today with highs from the upper 70s to
middle 80s. little day to day temperature variation then
expected from thursday into the weekend with highs in mid-
upper 70s.

&&

.update...
issued at 940 am edt wed may 27 2026

a strong low/mid level moisture gradient persists this morning
across the region. rap 13z analysis indicates pwats ranging
from around 1.6 inches across central indiana to around 0.7
inches closer to the in/mi stateline. the combination of a
shared vort filament having lifted north from the ohio valley
and some enhanced moisture convergence with warm frontal
feature have allowed for a stripe of moderate rainfall clipping
southern portions of the forecast area this morning. through
time this vort filament should get increasingly sheared as it
begins to encounter some westerly mid/upper flow across the
southern great lakes. the zone of moisture convergence should
tend weaken and become suppressed southward through time into
east central indiana this afternoon. based on mesonet
observations and radar estimations, storm total rain amounts
across southern jay county could exceed an inch before rain
tapers in intensity and coverage this afternoon. some ponding of
water is possible on roadways across far south/southeast jay
county into early afternoon, but overall modest rainfall rates
of 0.25-0.4" per hour should tend to discourage significant
hydro concerns. main tweak to morning forecast was to adjust
pops upward far south with an increase in storm total rainfall
amounts. otherwise, no major changes to forecast at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 am edt wed may 27 2026

by in large the area will remain rather tranquil over the next week
or so as upper level ridging builds just west of the region. before
we get there, a somewhat complicated scenario takes place as an axis
of deeper moisture works north across central in in associated with
an elongated wave and weak low moves across southern il and rides
along this moisture gradient. models vary greatly on timing,
coverage and intensity on shower/storm development with some
isolated shower development already noted as of 6z from south of
lafayette to marysville, oh. some cams do suggest development could
edge to near us-24 warranting a continued tight gradient of pops for
the time being. as the low moves away, a "cool" front drops quickly
south across mi/wi this afternoon reaching the mi border towards 00z
thu and then continuing south. a few showers are possible as this
drops into ne parts of the area if any lingering moisture still
exists. thinking best (very limited) chances remain just ne of the
forecast area so will keep things dry.

80s will dominate much of the area today, save for locations
along/south of us-24 where the cloud cover from the the southerly
system may limit warming somewhat. on thu, slightly cooler 850 mb
temp and more noticeably lower dewpoints (dropping into the 40s)
will bring a very pleasant feel. although we remain away from any
precip chances into the weekend, disturbances and weak fronts will
help keep dewpoints in the 40s into early next week as well as highs
in the 70s.

last, but not least, while the overall wind and wave forecast
will not pose a concern to small craft behind the cool front
later tonight into thursday, the potential exists for an
increasing swim risk after 9z thu through at least 21z thu. the
best chance for a high swim risk resides along the la porte
county shore line and possibly portions of southern berrien
county shores. have held off on any beach hazard statement, but
if trends continue, headlines will be needed for at least a
portion of our beach zones by the next package.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 638 am edt wed may 27 2026

band of showers and some storms was slowly filling in across
central in and moving ene. while a brief shower or sprinkle may
make it to kfwa, the duration and impacts appear too limited to
add to the taf. will defer to incoming shift to monitor trends
over the next couple of hours. at ksbn, vfr conditions have with
some mvfr/ifr cigs and vsbys into lower mi which should be
fairly short in duration and remain away from ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until 11 pm cdt this evening for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 271038
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
638 am edt wed may 27 2026

.key messages...

- low chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening

- temperatures return closer to late may normals tomorrow through
next weekend.

- no rain is currently expected during the late week through next
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a cold front currently sitting near mbs gradually sags through the
region this afternoon-evening. weaker forcing along this boundary
and limited moisture act as a limiting factor for both lower cloud
and potential rain coverage. vfr with cloud aoa 5kft expected to
prevail through this evening with shower coverage favored to be
isolated to widely scattered in nature as a result. given the lower
confidence in coverage, have maintained prob30 groups for showers
with some adjustments to timing. while isolated thunder is possible,
probability of occurrence at any specific terminal is too low to
include mention at this point. high pressure then builds late tonight
into thursday promoting clearing skies.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance of a thunderstorm late this
afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening, roughly 23-03z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 355 am edt wed may 27 2026

discussion...

passage of a backdoor cold front will be ongoing through the morning
hours with the frontal boundary expected to slow or briefly stall
out across southern michigan through the afternoon. initial passage
of the front will have minor impacts on temperature trends outside
of communities around the lake huron/saginaw bay shoreline. daytime
highs return into the 80s for most locations, low 70s closer to the
lake. isolated or scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms
become possible in the late afternoon and evening as a mid-level wave
arrives over northern lower michigan. better coverage and the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm would be most favorable along or south
of m59, aligned where a cape gradient will reside. secondary
chances, mainly rain showers, will reside through the tri-cities
given some very weak low-level convergence with some lake
enhancement behind the front.

passage of the wave and arrival of high pressure that builds in from
western ontario into northern michigan will deepen the western
periphery of the trough and will bring a better push of cooler air
tomorrow. strong subsidence under high pressure supports dry
conditions with temperature highs holding in the low to mid 70s,
cooler closer to the lakeshore. an upper-level wave will drop from
quebec into new england friday into saturday and will slowly release
into the western atlantic early next week while an upper low across
the four corners opens up across the rockies through this same time
frame. this setup will strengthen a longwave ridge across the central
us and will enhance high pressure over the great lakes into the
weekend and early next week. this will bring mostly dry conditions
through the remaining forecast period. temperatures likely return
into the low 80s tomorrow, but a secondary backdoor cold front holds
highs in the 70s this weekend into early next week.

marine...

a cold front has been moving south through the region and will reach
southern lake huron this morning. the front will continue southward
today, eventually passing through lake erie later this afternoon or
evening. winds have flipped around to the north-northwest behind the
front overnight and will hold mainly out of the north through
thursday. an area of high pressure builds into the region behind the
front and will slowly pass south and east through the end of the
week. this will result in winds backing to the west thursday night
into friday. winds will largely remain below 20 knots through the
end of the week with the exception of wednesday night when winds
turn more northeasterly and may gust over 20 knots. the onshore flow
will lead to briefly higher wave action as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...am
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.