Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
831
fxus61 kcle 171217
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
817 am edt thu sep 17 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through today as a
front wavers across the ohio valley.

2) unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. heavy
rainfall and localized flooding are possible saturday into
sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface boundary remains draped across the ohio valley region today
with periods of showers and storms continuing as numerous shortwaves
aloft move overhead through this evening. showers and storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall with localized flooding
possible. both refs and href composite reflectivity ensemble
paintballs indicate two primary windows where shower and storm
coverage increase. the first window will be early this morning into
daybreak as a wave aloft moves overhead. area of coverage will
include portions of northwest and central ohio. another wave enters
the region late this morning/early afternoon where storms may dive
southeast from northern indiana towards central ohio. low confidence
in any storm reaching severe limits today as best instability
remains south and west of the forecast area.

by this evening, the front will exit to the south as canadian high
pressure enters from the north. there may be some lingering showers
this evening before the high takes full control of the weather
pattern by friday.

key message 2...
dry conditions are expected through friday evening before high
pressure exits to the east friday night into saturday. precipitation
chances return from the northwest overnight friday into saturday as
low pressure lifts a warm front across the local area. the low will
then drag a cold front from northwest to southeast saturday into
sunday. the primary concern with this system continues to be heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding. wpc has maintained a slight
risk (level 2 of 4) excessive rainfall outlook for this timeframe
across the western half of the forecast area. highest axis of qpf
remains north of the forecast area in a swath from chicago/milwaukee
east towards detroit.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
moist and humid conditions remain in place this morning.
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms have been tracking
from near fdy to mfd to cak. regional radars depict numerous
thunderstorms extending northwest to near chicago that will
track towards northwest and central ohio today. although there
is some uncertainty regarding if these track near fdy or
slightly to the south, it seems fdy will likely experience some
thunderstorms, especially in the 16-18z window but that may
need to be adjusted. if a thunderstorm impacts a terminal
directly, then brief heavy rain is possible. elsewhere scattered
showers are possible but can not rule out a thunderstorm,
mainly through 18z.

given the moist boundary layer conditions this morning, several
locations are experiencing low ifr ceilings with stratus. expect
ceiling to generally trend towards mvfr through 15z. scattered
light showers may move southeast across lake erie towards
northeast ohio sites/nw pennsylvania sites.

high pressure starts to build in from the north tonight with
drier air arriving. a mix of mvfr and vfr ceilings are expected
but the drier air should prevent fog formation.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms
saturday through sunday.

&&

.marine...
north to northeast winds of 5-10 knots are expected on lake erie
today, then increasing to 15-20 knots for a brief window late
tonight into friday morning. waves will be choppy given the onshore
flow and will increase to 2 to 5 feet on the central basin of lake
erie on friday morning. winds will decrease by friday afternoon but
then veer to easterly at 10-15 knots friday night through saturday.

low pressure will pass near or just south of lake erie on saturday
night. the track of the low will impact wind direction and wave
heights as a brief window of southerly flow would yield better
marine conditions than a more prolonged stretch of north to
northeast winds. once the northeasterly flow becomes established on
the back side of the system, rough marine conditions can be expected
on the central and western basin of lake erie from sunday through
tuesday with the potential for winds to reach 30 knots at times. a
prolonged small craft advisory will likely be needed late this
weekend through early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
976
fxus63 kiwx 170943
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
543 am edt thu sep 17 2026

.key messages...

- numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this morning.
heavy rain and associated flooding potential are the greatest
concern, especially in areas that experienced heavy rain over
the past 24 to 36 hours. a flood watch is in effect for parts
of northern indiana and northwest ohio.

- dry and less humid conditions on friday followed by renewed
opportunties for rain and storms this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 241 am edt thu sep 17 2026

moisture advection within a broad ~25 knot low level jet supporting
additional rounds of showers and embedded storms in the vicinity of
a stalled baroclinic zone this morning. some upper jet support also
noted from a shortwave and mid-upper level jet tracking east through
the northern great lakes aiding in some weak frontogenesis. heavy
rainfall rates and the resulting potential for more localized
flooding the main threat with this round given the anomalously moist
column and potential for training. antecedent conditions favor areas
near and south of fort wayne area for greatest flood threat. did opt
to add a row of counties on the northern fringe of the flood watch
given radar/model trends. low clouds and some patchy fog expected
otherwise this morning.

chances for rain diminish this afternoon into this evening as the
low level jet weakens and the primary mucape axis shifts off the
southwest. with that said cannot rule the low chance for a few
widely scattered showers within the elevated portion of the
southward sinking frontal slope, mainly south of us 30 corridor in
in. a low level anticyclone dropping southeast through the
northern/eastern great lakes shunts the boundary well south
later tonight into friday with a brief shot of lower humidity
and dry conditions for the entire forecast area.

another wet pattern emerges this weekend as several upper level
waves eject east over a persistent upper ridge. the associated lift
and surges of theta-e should focus several rounds of showers and
storms in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone that looks to sink south
into the area on saturday, potentially lingering over the area into
sunday and monday. river and lowland flooding may once again become
an issue for portions of the area.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 542 am edt thu sep 17 2026

moisture transport into a stalled frontal zone will allow
showers and few embedded storms to impact the terminals this
morning. the bulk of the morning will generally feature lifr to
ifr conditions given moist conditions within the lingering
baroclinic zone. some drying and diurnal mixing should support
improvement back into mainly mvfr with time this afternoon. a
few showers may develop this afternoon into this evening, though
chances (10-20%) are too low for a mention at this time. light
winds expected otherwise through the taf cycle.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for inz017-018-
023>027-032>034.
oh...flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
396
fxus63 kdtx 171048
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
648 am edt thu sep 17 2026

.key messages...

- scattered light showers this morning.

- a short-lived dry period is expected tonight and friday.

- widespread showers return in earnest saturday into saturday night.
rainfall totals in excess of half an inch are likely, with the
potential for 1 inch or more.

&&

.aviation...

the front stalled west to east across central in/oh maintains a
heavy influence as it extends aloft over lower mi this morning.
elevated portions of the frontal zone are activated with mvfr
ceiling that is steadily filling in from the ohio border northward
since midnight, and which is lowering into ifr up to dtw and toward
fnt. the elevated frontal zone is also producing clusters of light
rain showers overhead while showers and storms with greater
intensity hold to the south and west. that activity will be
monitored for trends in forecast guidance that project weakening or
dissipation of the overhead showers, and of the wi showers, while
the ia/il/in/oh storms remain there along and south of the surface
front during the morning.

high pressure strengthening across northern ontario brings cloud
improvement across se mi this afternoon through tonight. increasing
ne low level wind as a result then reinforces dry air which drives
the mvfr/vfr dividing line south of mbs by noon and south of dtw
late in the day or closer to sunset. that leaves just broken
coverage of cirrus over se mi tonight until some higher based
stratocu has a chance to form off lake huron late tonight and friday
morning.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast today or
tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 am edt thu sep 17 2026

discussion...

southeast michigan will remain along the northern periphery of very
strong h5 600 dam ridge that will retrograde from the southeast u.s.
to texas by friday. quick progression of deep northern canada
midlevel trough combined with the expanse of upper level confluence
over portions of the great lakes will support surface anticyclone
here locally and cause the frontal zone and any instability to be
suppressed to the south today. despite the instability to the south,
plan view perspective of thermal progs show a fairly significant
wave of 850-600mb warm advection directly through lower michigan
between 06-18z this morning. will see some upstream convection from
iowa track eastward this morning and at least approach southeast
michigan. could see some light precipitation or virga survive the
eastward trek but not expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts.
persistent clouds today are expected to have some impact on
temperatures which will be in the middle 70s, at or a couple of
degrees above normal.

retrogression of the high and deep column ridging will allow for
strong surface ridging over southeast michigan friday. cooler
morning lows with some 40s up north, but right at seasonal averages
for low temperatures.

southeast us monsoonal moisture is forecasted to circumnavigate/
advect around the large southeast us upper level ridge friday and
saturday. there has been good model consistency in supporting strong
synoptic scale lift from south dakota friday eastward into michigan
on saturday. strong convergence streamflowing into a region of very
strong right entrance region jet dynamics aloft brings high
confidence in a storm track within the vicinity. main concern is the
potential for heavy rainfall saturday. eps ensemble data highlights
an interquartile range of 24 hr qpf of .8 to 1.5 inches with higher
values in across the northern cwa including the tri cities. pops are
at 90-95% for the day 3 period, the daytime on saturday. the
excessive rainfall outlook has much of southeast michigan designated
as a slight risk for excessive rainfall saturday.

for the latter half of the weekend, indications are that an entrance
region to the upper level jet streak will stay in vicinity of
southeast michigan through at least monday. easterly flow combined
with differential cold advection in the low levels should result in
very stable weather with temperatures below normal. confidence
decreases markedly with regards to precipitation potential by
tuesday with hard to determine shortwave energy timing and location.

marine...

winds remain on the lighter side (<20kts) through today as the
southern edge of northern ontario high pressure slides overhead. a
secondary cold front drops through the region tonight-friday with
the main impact being a modest uptick in northeasterly winds over
the southern half of lake huron. this front stalls over northern
ohio before attempting to lift back north saturday as plains low
pressure arrives. this front looks to only push north of the
southern great lakes before the system tracks over lower mi
resulting in predominant east-southeast turning northeasterly winds
this weekend. widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are
possible, mainly focused over the southern half of the region. a
moderate gradient, supporting ne/e gusts 20-30kts, lingers behind
the low sunday into the new work week as the area holds between the
stalled boundary over the ohio valley and high pressure over
northern ontario.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...cb
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.