Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
738
fxus61 kcle 282333
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
633 pm est fri nov 28 2025

.synopsis...
the trough will exit today as a brief ridge of high pressure builds
across the region. another potent low pressure system will glide
northeast across the great lakes region this weekend with high
pressure briefly returning on monday. another system will track east
across the region monday night into tuesday.

&&

.near term /through saturday night/...
active weather remains in the near term period with continued lake
effect snow showers through tonight and another impactful system
arriving on saturday.

lake effect snow:

lake effect snow showers streaming off of both lake michigan and
lake erie this afternoon will gradually diminish through this
evening and overnight as the upper trough continues to lift
northeastward as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead from the
south. given the diminishing lake effect snow, particularly along
the lakeshore, have gone ahead and cancelled the winter weather
advisories for lake county and lakeshore ashtabula county in ohio
and for northern erie county pennsylvania. the remainder of the lake
effect snow warnings for northeast ohio and the winter weather
advisory for summit county expire at 7 pm tonight. the lake effect
snow warning for southern erie county and crawford county in
pennsylvania expire at 1 am saturday. additional snowfall amounts
through tonight of 1 to 3 inches is expected with highest
accumulations occurring across higher terrain locations. continued
light to moderate snowfall may produce slick conditions through this
evening. will continue to monitor radar trends over the next several
hours, but additional cancellations are possible.

synoptic snow on saturday:

our next impactful winter system will arrive on saturday as low
pressure glides northeast from the central plains into the lower
great lakes region while deepening. wet synoptic snowfall is
expected to spread across the region late saturday morning through
sunday. highest accumulation will be confined to the i-75 corridor
where snowfall amounts of 3-5+ inches are expected. locally higher
accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible around the toledo
metro area. confidence has increased enough with this forecast
package to issue new winter headlines across northwest ohio saturday
morning through sunday morning. a winter weather advisory has been
issued for wood, ottawa, sandusky, seneca, hancock, and wyandot
counties in ohio. a winter storm warning has been issued for lucas
county for the same timeframe given higher confidence in the western
half of the county receiving 6+ inches of snowfall. highest snowfall
rates will occur saturday afternoon and evening, especially across
the advisory and warning area. elsewhere, accumulations will
generally range between 1-3 inches. some slick spots may develop
where snow can accumulate on area roadways.

temperatures:

lows tonight fall into the upper teens to lower 20s with highs on
saturday expected to rise into the low/mid 30s. slightly warmer on
saturday night with overnight lows in the upper 20s.

&&

.short term /sunday through monday night/...
synoptic snowfall will diminish from west to east on sunday as the
aforementioned low pressure system drags a cold front east across
the local area as it pushes northeastward. breezy behind the cold
front on sunday with winds gusting to 30-35 mph at times sunday
afternoon. additionally, synoptic snowfall will transition to lake
enhanced snow behind the cold front through monday before another
brief area of high pressure builds overhead. lake enhanced snowfall
amounts sunday through monday morning should generally remain
between 1-2 inches or less. high temperatures on sunday in the mid
30s to lower 40s will fall into the upper 20s behind the front by
monday. chilly sunday night with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s
and wind chill values bottoming out in the tens early monday
morning. there will be a brief window of dry weather expected with
high pressure on monday before another system arrives monday night
into tuesday.

&&

.long term /tuesday through friday/...
another upper level trough will move east across the region monday
night into tuesday bringing yet another round of wintry
precipitation on tuesday. dry conditions are favored on wednesday
under high pressure before additional upper level disturbances move
overhead thursday and friday. below normal temperatures are expected
through the forecast period with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s
and overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
conditions have improved across the majority of the terminals in the
region to vfr. there are a few terminals that are still non-vfr,
mainly within the primary and secondary snowbelt due to the ongoing
snow showers. at this point kyng is the only taf site experiencing
these conditions occasionally and are expected to improved within a
few hours. once the lake effect snow showers taper off this evening,
conditions will be vfr through the majority of the taf period. high
pressure will build in south of the region briefly tonight through
early in the day saturday allowing for some ceilings to scatter out
for the southwestern and southern terminals. winds will trend
lighter overnight for terminals away from the lakeshore dropping to
around 5 knots or less. for those near the lakeshore, kcle and keri,
they will stay elevated longer, around 10 knots and gusting up to 20
knots through 8-10z tomorrow morning.

the next low pressure system will begin to enter the region from the
west-southwest saturday afternoon bringing in the next round of non-
vfr conditions. ceilings will drop with the incoming system from
west to east, and for this taf period, terminals west and along the
i-71 corridor will see non-vfr conditions with ceilings and snow
potential. winds will also begin the back to be out of the south
with the incoming low and will increase to around 10 knots and
gusting around 20 knots.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are expected as a low pressure system
traverses the region sunday through early monday. there is potential
for prolonged non-vfr conditions in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania due to lake effect snow/rain showers. non-vfr
conditions will be possible again with another low pressure system
on tuesday.

&&

.marine...
winds will continue to gradually ease on lake erie tonight through
early saturday, finally enough to end all of the small craft
advisories by sunday morning. the window of winds less than 10kts
will be brief, however, as the next strong low pressure system will
be moving in from the west by saturday night. offshore winds
increase to 30kts by sunday morning, and will approach gale force
out of the southwest sunday afternoon. low water levels may become
an issue again sunday as well given the strong winds along the fetch
of the lake. open water wave heights 10-14ft possible, and
nearshore, 6-10ft possible late saturday night through early sunday
night. winds down below 10kts out of the southwest monday as wave
heights come down below 2ft by monday evening.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning from 10 am saturday to 10 am est sunday
for ohz003.
winter weather advisory from 10 am saturday to 10 am est
sunday for ohz006>008-017-018-027.
lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est this evening for
ohz011-013-014-022-023.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz021.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 1 am est saturday for paz002-
003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez142>146.
small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lez147>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...23
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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547
fxus63 kiwx 282326
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
626 pm est fri nov 28 2025

.key messages...

- snow overspreads the area saturday and continues into
saturday night. the snow is expected to be heavy at times
particularly saturday afternoon into the evening hours.
hazardous holiday travel is expected due to the potential of
moderate to heavy snow, particularly north of us route 24.

- snow showers will continue into sunday, transitioning to lake effect
snow showers with some additional travel impacts possible.

- more snow is possible monday night into early tuesday, but
confidence in snow accumulations is low at this time.

- much colder temperatures across the area next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 220 pm est fri nov 28 2025

not a whole lot of changes made this forecast period other than
upgrading the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for
most of the cwa the only exception was for the issuance of a
winter weather advisory for allen county in ohio. still looking
like snowfall ranging in the 4 to 12 inches with locally heavier
amounts especially in areas that will get lake enhancement
beginning sunday. the smaller accumulations will be generally in
the southeastern portions of the cwa, south and east of
interstate 69 due to the warm nose introducing some rain/snow
mix on late saturday night into sunday morning. snow will tend
to be the wetter and heavier variety especially for the
southeastern parts of the forecast area. there also will be some
bust potential if the track of the storm slightly deviates or
warmer than expected layer develops within the isentropic
upglide on the eastern side of the storm. winds gusts of 25 to
30 mph will be expected with this storm. with the wetter
snowfall would not expect much blowing snow issues, however on
sunday with the drier snow with the colder air being entrained
there may be some blowing and drifting across area roads. also,
within the heavier bands of snowfall visibilities will be
greatly reduced at times. the wetter snow will also make
removing the snow more difficult and perhaps hazardous. heart
attack snow comes to mind.

on sunday evening after the storm shifts eastward there is a
concern for some flash freezing with much colder air spilling in
behind this system. any wet roads and any snowfall left on the
roads will likely freeze up especially on untreated surfaces and
rural roads which are likely to make for continued hazardous
road conditions.

next week the arctic airmass will bring very cold temperatures
across the entire area with highs only in the 20s and mostly
teens for lows. friday morning looks to be the coldest with
single digits for lows.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 626 pm est fri nov 28 2025

vfr conditions will persist through the overnight period with
just some increasing mid/high clouds ahead of the next system.
snow will spread from west to east late saturday morning with a
fairly quick transition to ifr conditions expected. confidence
in timing is high. lifr conditions become more likely late in
the day saturday (at the very end of this forecast window for
kfwa) as heavy snow spreads across the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm warning from 7 am est /6 am cst/ saturday to 7 pm
est /6 pm cst/ sunday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...winter storm warning from 7 am saturday to 7 pm est sunday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
winter weather advisory from 7 am saturday to 7 pm est sunday
for ohz025.
mi...winter storm warning from 7 am saturday to 7 pm est sunday for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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993
fxus63 kdtx 290018
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
718 pm est fri nov 28 2025

.key messages...

- winter storm warning and winter weather advisory in effect for
widespread 5 to 8 inches of snowfall starting saturday afternoon
into sunday.

- below normal temperatures expected early next week. highs in the
20s and overnight lows in the teens.

- another chance for accumulating snow is possible monday night and
tuesday morning.

&&

.aviation...

evening trend of lake effect snow persists amidst light showers and
flurries per kdtx radar. intensity remains inconsequential as the
terminals have predominantly maintained vfr visibilities and ceiling
heights. upstream observational trends indicate a low likelihood for
prevailing mvfr conditions for the rest of the evening and overnight
period as low-level flow briefly turns northwesterly. this, in
addition to advancing high pressure, ensures a drier feed of air,
which helps keep ceilings elevated. this also limits cloud depths,
reducing the amount of snow that can form aloft, favoring flurries
at the surface. gusts drop-off at all sites tonight as the lower
column wind field continues to weaken.

confidence is rising in a prolonged accumulating snow event saturday
evening through sunday morning. top-down saturation processes will
be underway saturday with ceilings and/or visibilities digressing to
mvfr, ifr, and possibly lifr restrictions. potential exists for
visibilities aob 1/2 sm late saturday evening, during the
anticipated peak of the event. this should occur just beyond the 00z
taf window (excluding dtw).

for dtw...scattered flurries remain possible tonight with minimal
impact to ceilings or visibility. impactful snow arrives saturday
evening, dropping from vfr to ifr within a few hours. potential
exists for lifr conditions and visibilities aob 1/2 sm during the
peak of the event, most likely between 01z and 04z sunday. a prob30
was added this cycle.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through 08z this evening.

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet after 20z saturday.

* low for crosswind threshold exceedence tonight.

* medium for visibility 1/2 sm or less after 00z sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 pm est fri nov 28 2025

discussion...

isolated to scattered flurry/light snow activity will continue
through this afternoon with the persistent cold northwest flow keeps
the lakes activated, though to a much lesser degree. the elevated
winds through this afternoon continue to result in wind chills that
hold in the low-mid 20s. temperatures cool quickly into the 20s this
evening with the loss of daytime heating sending wind chills back
down into the teens for the overnight hours.

all attention turns toward the impending winter system arriving
locally tomorrow afternoon as a pacific wave and associated surface
low moves across the great lakes. the exact track of the surface is
mostly in agreement in the ensemble space with a track across
southern lake michigan saturday night into central/southern lake
huron by late sunday morning. there are subtle differences in track
and timing, but trends have lead to a slightly later start time for
the impactful snowfall. could see some snowflakes begin to fall
along western portions of the cwa as early as 1 pm depending on now
quickly saturation occurs. the higher rate snowfall looks to arrive
more towards 4 pm and after with the peak of this event landing
between 6 pm and midnight across southeast michigan. snow should
continue through all of tonight, though intensity should gradually
wane in the 1 am to 7 am time frame. then snow tapers off late sunday
morning into the early afternoon.

the set up continues to point to a widespread several inches of snow
accumulation event within a 12 to 15 hour window. deep layer moist
isentropic ascent ahead of this low pressure system with a coupled
upper level jet structure supports this extended period of lift.
embedded areas of stronger forcing associated with fgen which mark
the peak time frame of this event where likelihood of higher snowfall
rates will exist. snow rates will reside in the quarter inch to
three quarters of an inch per hour through much of the event while
fgen brings potential for 1 inch per hour rates or greater. higher
rates will be supported by solid vertical motion through the dgz at
times, but confidence in duration and exact location of these more
intense bands is on the lower end. however, latest href this morning
points towards areas along the i-94 corridor to the southern border
with highest chance to see 1 to 1.5 inch per hour snow rates.

sounding profiles and bufkit analysis suggest a normal snow (11:1 to
13:1 ratios) to start the event with potential for a transition to a
wet snow or even a rain/snow mix across far southern eastern
portions of the cwa, including the detroit metro area, and
transition to larger flakes for northern portions of the cwa. not
completely sold on any transition to a rain/snow mix based on the
look of forecast soundings. while surface temperatures will be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, the thermal profiles on forecast
soundings showing more than enough cold air for snow to be
maintained if surface temperatures climb slightly above freezing
tomorrow morning. and not completely sold that the dry air will
strip moisture from the dgz to remove ice from the cloud.

qpf with latest nbm guidance has come in on the high end for 24 hour
totals between 18z saturday to 18z sunday with qpf in the 0.50 to
0.60 inches which in turn has increased the snowfall forecast. there
is still some potential that these may be slightly too high and
could land more in the 0.4 to 0.5 range. highest confidence to
achieve 7 inches of snowfall in this 24 hour period is across
western portions of the cwa: the tri-cities where high ratio snow
comes into play and down towards the southwest portions of the cwa
where higher snow rate potential resides. have opted for the winter
storm warning for these areas as confidence is just high enough to
move forth with a warning. the remainder of the area will be
borderline warning and have opted for a high end advisory with 5 to
7 inches of snow accumulation. the weakening trend in forcing, lower
ratio potential, and possibly lower qpf bring cause to hold off for
now as we are still out about 24 hours or slightly more from the
arrival of more intense snow. it certainly remains possible to see
an expansion of the warning as more data comes in tonight and
tomorrow morning.

gusty conditions follow the back side of this system as lake effect
snow showers becomes the predominate drivers of light snow showers
that carry through sunday afternoon. any additional accumulations
beyond 18z are expected to be light. very cold temperatures settle
into the region for the early week as high temperatures top out in
the 20s and overnight lows in the teens. active pattern continues in
the extended as the next chance for accumulating snowfall will come
monday night.

marine...

ohio valley high pressure maintains influence through tonight
supporting continuing weakening of northwesterly winds. pattern
shift occurs saturday afternoon as the next low ejecting out of the
midwest begins to encroach on the great lakes. winds organize out of
the south-southeast during this time with a steady strengthening
through the evening hours as the low center reaches lower mi. while
this flow carries some warmer air north, magnitude is not enough to
set up a truly stable overlake thermal profile allowing a portion of
a 50kt low level jet to mix down to the surface over the southern
great lakes and southern third of lake huron (roughly south of port
austin). gusts saturday night for these waters likely top out around
30kts with a sporadic gust to gale force not completely out of the
question. for the rest of the central great lakes, winds peak closer
to the 20-25kt range. low is forecast to track northeast directly
over lake huron sunday morning and eventually into the georgian
bay/ontario by sunday afternoon. this allows a secondary arctic cold
front to drop across the great lakes late sunday afternoon-evening
ushering in renewed cold air advection on nw flow. model guidance
today has been consistently trending stronger with this
front/trailing cold advection resulting in solid potential (50-80%)
for a 4-6hr period of 35-40kt gusts over northern/central lake huron
late day sunday. a gale watch has been issued for all open waters
north of harbor beach as a result. some occasional gales are
possible over the open waters south of harbor beach however given
the northwesterly wind direction, confidence in 3+ hours of 34kt
gusts is too low at this time to include in the watch.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm warning from 3 pm saturday to 10 am est sunday for
miz047-048-053-060-068-075-082.

winter weather advisory from 3 pm saturday to 10 am est sunday for
miz049-054-055-061>063-069-070-076-083.

lake huron...gale watch from sunday afternoon through sunday evening for
lhz361>363-462.

small craft advisory until 4 am est saturday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz422-442-
443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.