Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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448
fxus61 kcle 100716
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
216 am est tue feb 10 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast for this issuance. keeping up
with some higher confidence and higher snow amounts in nw pa/ne
oh. quiet into the end of the week.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of lake effect snow showers likely across portions
of the snowbelt region of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania tuesday night in through early thursday.

2) high pressure moves in for the end of the week and the
beginning of the weekend as temperatures trend towards normal.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
a cold front will accelerate through the cwa later today with a
slightly delayed increase in the low level moisture in the wake
of it after 03z tonight. the saturation combined with the cold
air advection in the lower levels will generate snow showers
targeted for the snow belt region through wednesday and into the
early morning hours thursday. accumulations likely mainly
through longevity of the periodic snow showers, and looking at
peak values of 2-4 inches in nw pa, with progressively lesser
amount further west.

.key message 2...
high pressure moves back into the region for the end of the week
and the first part of the weekend with temperatures that will be
trending back towards more normal values for mid february, and
this means daytime highs above freezing heading into the
weekend. largely quiet and dry otherwise. will be watching a
southern stream low pressure system passing to the south of the
area.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the majority of the taf
period as high pressure builds off to the east ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. widespread ceilings of around
10kft are seen across the region and should continue through
this morning. there`s low potential for precipitation for keri
tuesday morning, but latest trends keep it to the northeast with
no impacts for the airfield. mvfr to ifr ceilings will move in
from the west-southwest tuesday afternoon as a cold front sweeps
through the region. ceilings will rise to mvfr at locations that
dropped to ifr after 00z wednesday when the front has cleared
the region.

winds will be a concern throughout the taf period as they will
be shifting around the low with the passing warm and cold
fronts. kept the mention of llws for ktol starting at 12z as
mixing won`t occur until the mid morning. other sites across
the region will be mixing enough by the time the stronger low
level winds move through to allow for gusts at the surface, so
left out llws at those airfields. throughout the day, winds will
shift from out of the south to the west-northwest by the end of
the taf period with sustained with 10-15 knots and gusting
20-25 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers across ne oh and nw
pa tuesday evening through wednesday night.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains nearly completely ice-covered. satellite and
analysis depict an area of thinner ice extending from east of the
lake erie islands to along the northern shoreline. there are also
multiple large cracks in the ice across the central basin. south
winds increase to 10-15kt this morning ahead of a cold front,
shifting west-northwest at 15-20kt this evening and tonight behind
the front. west-northwest winds persist at 15-20kt through
wednesday, before gradually weakening wednesday night and thursday.

the milder temperatures and offshore flow today increases the risk
of ice floes breaking away from the southern shoreline of lake erie,
noting that satellite imagery has shown some movement and new cracks
in the ice over the last couple days over the central basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...23
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 100653
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
153 am est tue feb 10 2026

.key messages...

- warmer today with highs near 40. highs will remain the 30s
for the rest of the week, supporting a slow melt of the
existing snowpack.

- there is a 40-60% chance of rain on sunday. if it does rain,
some minor flooding is possible in areas that still have a
significant snowpack.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 153 am est tue feb 10 2026

waa now in full swing across the area as flattening mid/upper level
flow causes well-established thermal ridge over the central/northern
plains to fold east with 850mb temps near 12c. of course we won`t
mix into that but upstream temps are well into the 40s giving some
hope we may hit 40f today for the first time in almost a month.
much will depend on the cloud forecast which is a challenging
one. some models suggest a low stratus deck but models
notoriously struggle with rh profiles in strong waa over deep
snow/cold ground. there are also abundant mid/upper clouds at
present but upstream satellite and forecast soundings suggest
these may dissipate for a time around midday before returning
overnight. will hold close to nbm for now which has highs right
at 40f for most places and mid/upper 40s in far sw where
snowpack is much thinner. lowest confidence is in the nw zones
where snowpack is deepest and surface dewpoints will likely
struggle to get above freezing. this will be the warmest day of
the week and will be our best chance to melt off some of the
snow. unfortunately the area that needs to melt the most (nw
zones where snow cores exceed 2" of liquid) will melt the least
today. areas in our central and se zones where swe`s are around
1" should see a good deal of melt today as dewpoints (briefly)
climb above freezing.

a cold front will slide through the area later today and even though
the upstream air is not particularly cold compared to recent
conditions (850mb temps below -10c bypass us to the ne) it will be
cold enough to drop highs back into the low/mid 30s, lows to around
20f, and dewpoints obviously well below freezing for the rest of the
week. it will also be mostly cloudy for much of the week. feb sun
angle will still take a toll with temps in the 30s but likely won`t
be able to melt all the snow (esp nw) before this weekend. this is
important because models continue to struggle with the eastward
ejection of what will be a moisture-laden system from the california
coast. deterministic runs still leaning to a more southern track but
a lot of ensemble guidance suggests a more northern track that would
impact our area. lack of substantial cold air will introduce ptype
concerns in this scenario and much of it could fall as rain. there
are still a lot of variables at play but the potential is there for
at least some minor hydro concerns. will likely know more in the
next day or two as snowmelt trends are finalized and upper low comes
onshore in california.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1215 am est tue feb 10 2026

high confidence in vfr conditions within the critical taf
period, with decreasing confidence beyond 18z this afternoon.
in the near-term, llws is a concern with a strengthening ll jet
moving from mo and over into in (ksbn is on the fringe of a
preexisting airmet). in the wake of this jet, a cold front moves
through allowing surface wind to veer wnw. an absence of deep
moisture will prevent any precipitation with this frontal
passage. however, through time, lake modification of the
boundary layer may permit the development of mvfr ceilings.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 100947
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
447 am est tue feb 10 2026

.key messages...

- relatively mild today with highs from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

- a little colder wednesday through friday but continued dry.

&&

.aviation...

mid cloud continues to work across southern lower mi today as low
pressure tracks over the northern great lakes. while s-sw winds hold
around 10kts, strengthening pre-frontal flow aloft will support low
level wind shear focused over ptk-south this morning. cold front
eventually sweeps across se mi this afternoon flipping winds to the
nw and increasing gusts toward 20kts. model soundings have trended a
bit slower in low cloud filling in post front so opted to for sct
low vfr mention this afternoon with mvfr ceilings arriving this
evening. region remains under colder, moderate northwest flow into
wednesday with ceilings favored to hold within mvfr territory.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning, high by evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 am est tue feb 10 2026

discussion...

regional radar and surface observations overnight have indicated
precip largely falling north of the forecast area, associated with a
region of deep layer moist isentropic ascent. while some of this
ascent may support a brief interval of snow/sleet across the
northern thumb, ceilings across the northern portions of the
forecast area remain quite high. this suggests low level dry air is
still a limiting factor for precip. exit region jet dynamics focused
across the northern great lakes this morning will drive a 925 to
850mb theta e plume across se mi in the 09z to 15z time frame. while
there is indication of some additional rounds of isentropic ascent
with this feature, model cross sections indicate the ascent to be
fairly shallow within a relatively stable profile. given this and
the bulk of ensemble guidance, a dry forecast will be maintained
today.

the ongoing precip across the northern lakes will be driven east by
a lead short wave impulse. this lead wave will be followed by a more
amplified wave tracking across lake superior and nrn ontario this
afternoon and will force a weak cold front across the forecast area
late morning/early afternoon. a respectable elevated warm layer is
now being advected into se mi within a 50+ knot 925mb southwest jet.
the residence time of this warm layer will be brief, as cold air
advection will already be underway this afternoon. there will
however be an opportunity for relatively mild air to infiltrate se mi
through both advection processes and diurnal mixing. in light the
snow pack across the region, there is a high variability within the
00z model suite and ensemble members as to how effectively mixing
will boost daytime highs. in light of current temps upstream well
into the 30s, highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s seem warranted
across most of the forecast area, generally in line with the latest
ecmwf ensemble members.

a more notable push of cold air will arrive tonight as the upper
wave tracks into ern ontario/srn quebec within strengthening
northwest winds across lower mi. model soundings indicate low level
lapse rates steepening within the cold air advection (as 850mb temps
drop toward -11c overnight). moisture depth remains limited on model
soundings. this will warrant just slight chance pops for light snow
showers or flurries tonight into wednesday. the airmass will not be
nearly cold as in recent weeks and with a boost from diurnal mixing
will warrant forecast highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s
wednesday. a period of dry weather remains forecast thursday into
saturday as high pressure dominates the great lakes region and the
upper jet remains positioned south of the state.

marine...

ongoing passage of a warm front will continue to produce widespread
snow across the greater portion of the northern great lakes,
including north and central lake huron. snow exits this afternoon as
the associated low pressure system progress from northern lake
superior into lake ontario through early wednesday morning.

passage of this system will push a cold front over the great lakes
late tonight into wednesday morning. close proximity to the low
pressure system strengthens the pressure gradient over lake huron
while intrusion of cold air reinforces steeper mixing depths. this
will bring the likely chance to see wind gusts that range between 30
to 35 knots across north and north-central lake huron from 00z wed
to 12z wed. opted to issue a gale warning as model trends have held
steady regarding gale potential. gales will be most probably across
north-central lake huron given the west flow that veer west-
northwest during the event.

high pressure to then build in over the region tomorrow into
thursday, which will bring lighter winds to the area through the
midweek period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est wednesday for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sc
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.