Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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935
fxus61 kcle 111730
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1230 pm est thu dec 11 2025

.synopsis...
a surface trough lingers across lake erie through tonight as a
clipper system moves into the ohio valley region tonight into
friday. another clipper system will move east across the great lakes
region while dragging an arctic cold front on saturday. a trough
remains over the region on sunday before high pressure builds
overhead on monday.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
10:00 am update...

an intense lake-effect band has flared up from northern lorain
county across much of cuyahoga county. this is associated with
strong low-level convergence ahead of a subtle trough crossing
lake erie, as well as deeper synoptic moisture and lift into a
wide dgz. rap bufkit shows this convergence and lift through the
dgz to be maintained over the next 2 to 3 hours along with
equilibrium levels of 7 to 8 thousand feet, so the band will
continue to produce heavy snow. luckily, the band will be
drifting se and will not be stationary, so will handle with
sps`s for visibilities below 1/4 mile and a quick inch of
accumulation. updated pops to likely in lorain, cuyahoga,
northern medina, northern summit, and northern portage counties
through 18z as this band pivots east/southeastward. also
increased snowfall to 1 to 1.5 inches in these areas through
18z.

original discussion...

mid to upper level trough will move through the great lakes region
today which will allow for continued lake effect snow showers
downwind of lake erie. northwest flow early this morning has brought
a lake huron connection into northwest pennsylvania. highest
snowfall amounts and rates from this band will remain over erie
county pa where 2-3" of snow is possible through daybreak this
morning. mean-layer flow will gradually shift and become west-
northwesterly through this afternoon allowing for lake effect snow
showers across the traditional snowbelt of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. overall additional snowfall amounts now
through friday afternoon will range between 1-3" across northeast
ohio and 3-5" across northwest pennsylvania. locally higher amounts
of 5-7" are possible in erie county pa where bands persist. lake
effect bands will gradually lift into western new york thursday
night as mean layer flow turns southwesterly ahead of an approaching
clipper system. this clipper will dive southwest of the local area
thursday night into friday. the bulk of the snow with this clipper
system will stay south of the forecast area, but can`t rule out a
quick 0.5" of snowfall across southern zones of the forecast area.

high temperatures today and friday will rise into the upper 20s to
lower 30s with overnight lows tonight in the upper teens.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
lake effect snow will return friday night ahead of a stronger
clipper system that will move east across the southern great lakes
on saturday. this clipper will drag a strong arctic cold front east
across the local area and usher in a much cooler airmass. lake
effect snow will resume saturday into sunday as the upper trough
deepens over the region.

warmest period of the short term will be friday night and saturday
ahead of the frontal passage where overnight lows friday night
settle in the teens and highs on saturday rise to the 20s. much
cooler behind the front with lows saturday and sunday night in the
single digits to low 10s. remaining cool on sunday with highs in the
upper teens. wind chill values will fall below zero areawide
saturday night with some zones in the southwestern portions of the
forecast area dropping as low as -10f.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
any remaining lake effect snow showers will diminish through the day
on monday as high pressure slowly builds east from the midwest to
begin next week. mainly dry conditions are expected through tuesday
before the next low arrives wednesday. temperatures will trend
warmer through the long term with the mid-week system bringing rain
to the region. highs in the 20s on monday will rise into the low 40s
by wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
overcast skies were prevailing across all taf sites in northern
ohio and northwest pennsylvania this afternoon. most ceilings
were 1500 to 4000 ft. snowbands will lower visibility values and
ceilings and this fluctuation will persist through 21z. tafs
primarily contain mvfr visibilities, which is due to the large
uncertainty in timing and location of ifr-producing snowbands.

west winds around 10-15 knots will produce gusts up to 20 knots
this afternoon before diminishing to 5 knots or less tonight.

outlook...non-vfr is likely in periods of snow as a series of
systems cross the area through the weekend with the best chance
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories continue near and east of the
islands, though conditions on lake erie are expected to gradually
improve through tonight as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds
in.

southwest winds develop friday night, with peak wind speeds of
around 25-30 knots expected saturday morning with and immediately
following the passage of a cold front. waves of 5-9 feet are likely
east of the islands through the day saturday. winds of 15 to 25
knots generally becomes northwest by saturday evening and continue
through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for ohz013-
014.
pa...winter storm warning until 4 am est friday for paz002.
winter weather advisory until 4 am est friday for paz003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez144-
145.
small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...garuckas/13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...fz
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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871
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afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
223 pm est thu dec 11 2025

.key messages...

- a brief period of light snow can be expected mainly south of
us-24 tonight. there is a 60 to 70 percent chance of
accumulations between 0.5 and 1.0 inch across primarily white
and cass counties.

- periods of light system snow and lake effect snow are also
expected friday night through sunday night.

- very cold temperatures are expected this weekend. there is at
least a 50 percent probability of wind chills at or below -20
degrees f on sunday morning over much of the area.

- warmer weather returns next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 220 pm est thu dec 11 2025

no major changes to the inherited forecast this afternoon. a few
light snow showers persist across the cwa w/ some local enhancements
noted in and around the fort wayne metro area likely courtesy of
added moisture/condensation nuclei induced by steam from nearby
industrial facilities. in general, most activity has been
limited to flurries or a quick burst of light to moderate snow
with no notable impacts reported. still anticipating the quick
passage of another clipper system tonight, with frontogenetic
forcing and isentropic ascent very briefly allowing snow to
spread into our far southwestern zones. trends in high-res
models have continued to signal a southward shift in the band of
accumulating snowfall w/ href members suggesting around a
60-70% probability of at least one half inch of snow. the hrrr
has consistently trended south over the past several runs w/ the
18z iteration keeping any notable accumulation entirely south
of the cwa. did consider an sps for a quick 1-2 inch snowfall,
but given the forecast trends decided to hold off on this
messaging for now.

quiet weather on friday will give way to a more active weekend, but
winter impacts should still be relatively marginal for most. first
short wave disturbance passes friday night into saturday morning
with lake enhanced snow developing in westerly flow. some snow
showers may spread into the us-6 corridor as well, but the best
chance for any accumulation would likely be found across
berrien/cass counties in mi. even so, current ensemble suites
suggest likely accumulations in the 1-3 inch range with lesser
chances of advisory level amounts. the second and more vigorous
short wave arrives saturday night w/ the best forcing focused mainly
south of us-30. the parade of clipper systems naturally results in a
low predictability storm track with each subsequent wave being
influenced by the previous, so considerable uncertainty still
exists with regard to the overall degree of winter travel
impacts from this system. nonetheless, some additional
accumulation is probable. one thing is for certain, much colder
air will filter in behind this system. 75th percentile gefs h85
temperatures plunge to -20 deg c by 12z sunday, strongly
suggesting potential for temperatures in the single digits (both
above and below zero) with wind chills possibly approaching
cold weather advisory criteria. will need to monitor for a
potential lake response saturday night into sunday.

a pattern shift is still expected beyond monday of next week w/
highs climbing above freezing and periods of rain expected through
mid-week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1233 pm est thu dec 11 2025

prevailing mvfr ceilings persist over ksbn this afternoon with
h035 vfr farther southeast towards kfwa. a clipper system will
pass through indiana tonight, bringing impactful snowfall across
central indiana. with the threat trending downward for areas
across far northern indiana, including sbn, have opted to remove
the mention of snow and shifted the prob30 mention to fwa and
areas south between 06/12z. mvfr conditions are likely to
persist through much of the day friday with light east to
southeast flow.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...norman

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 112001
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
301 pm est thu dec 11 2025

.key messages...

- arctic air will impact the region saturday into monday, featuring
well below normal temperatures. wind chills will be in the single
digits to sub zero.

- the coldest period will be saturday night and sunday morning when
wind chill readings will drop to 5 to 15 degrees below zero.

- warmer temperatures are forecast wednesday into thursday of next
week.

&&

.discussion...

an overall backing of the low level flow toward the west and a
lowering of the inversion will allow a decrease in the coverage of
snow showers and flurries this evening. there is likely to be good
deal of strato cu through the night trapped under the low level
inversion. this should hold min temps largely in the teens despite
the resident cold airmass. the potential for a few breaks in the
saginaw valley/thumb will warrant a little colder temps in this
region. a low amplitude short wave is still forecast to traverse the
ohio valley tonight and friday, with the associated snowfall well
south of the forecast area. broad mid level subsidence through both
confluence and weak negative vorticity advection will maintain a dry
forecast across se mi friday. even with some potential breaks in
strato cu field, cold air locked in place will hold highs in the
mid/upper 20s.

an approaching upper low from the northwest will spread mid level
height falls across lower mi friday evening. a narrow axis of mid
level moisture in advance of the upper low will support a brief
period of respectable lake effect off lake michigan. a backing of
the low level flow from southwest to west friday evening will drive
some of the lake effect into se mi, enhanced by the period of large
scale ascent and deep layer moisture. the duration of light snow or
any potential heavier bursts of snow showers which release off lake
michigan will be brief, which will keep total snow accumulations
minimal. model blended solutions suggest snowfall amounts of a
dusting to half inch. even the 90th percentile has total accums of
just an inch. this lends to support to high probabilities for snow,
with low qpf/snow accum potential.

as the upper low tracks across the northern lakes saturday/saturday
night, forecast amplification within the larger scale trough will
drive an early season blast of extremely cold arctic air into the
region. 850mb temps are forecast to plunge toward -20c saturday
afternoon, with the extreme cold holding over the region into
monday. daytime highs will largely be in the teens to near 20 with
nighttime lows in the single digits. the cold air advection on
saturday and the lake aggregate troughing on sunday will maintain
some elevated wind speeds through the weekend, with gusts over 25 mph
at times. this will result in some sub zero wind chill readings,
especially during the morning hours. while the moisture flux off the
lakes will support some lake effect, limited inversion heights and
the very dry and cold arctic airmass suggest that mainly some
flurries may make their way into se mi this weekend. a pattern shift
next week continues to offer high probabilities for a warming trend
wednesday into thursday, with highs possibly into the 40s.

&&

.marine...

elongated area of high pressure is over the region today, wedged in
between a strong low over the far northeast conus and second area of
low pressure developing over the western plains. the resultant
northwesterly gradient will remain elevated due to cold air
filtering into the area but below gale force with the lack of
stronger gradient support. small craft advisories continue through
this evening to account for elevated wave heights from the
persistent northwesterly flow. winds will remain lower into friday
before the next clipper tracks through ontario friday night into
saturday, pulling an arctic front through the region friday night.
this cold airmass will again bring increased winds with sporadic
gusts to gales possible over lake huron during the weekend as 850 mb
temps plummet to -20 c, supporting snow squalls and freezing spray
as well. another round of small craft advisories seem likely at a
minimum through the weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 106 pm est thu dec 11 2025

aviation...

west surface flow with northwest flow aloft will continue to advect
lake moisture inland, maintaining an extensive strato-cu field along
with flurries through daylight hours. confidence regarding cloud
trends wane overnight as wind streamlines divert from pure west-
northwest flow, hampering lake moisture advection. the current
thinking is that stratus continues to hold overnight under an
inversion, with lower end probabilities for mvfr cigs as cloud bases
sink. a much lower confidence scenario will be the scouring out of
cloud cover overnight which would then introduce chances of some
freezing fog potential leading to visibility restrictions. the
former has been representing in the ongoing tafs given the higher
confidence of the maintenance of the stratus deck.

for dtw...mainly vfr ceilings with flurries. brief mvfr drops
possible. max westerly gusts to 20 this afternoon and early evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* to high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through this afternoon,
moderate this evening and overnight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-442.

small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lhz441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......drk
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.