Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
499
fxus61 kcle 281754
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
154 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

.what has changed...
the wind advisory across the western counties has been allowed to
expire this morning as wind gusts have diminished in intensity.

&&

.key messages...
1) decaying convection will continue to spread east, resulting in
widespread showers and the potential for gusty winds. another round
of showers is possible wednesday.

2) much cooler temperatures arrive midweek and persist through the
weekend. the potential for frost/freeze returns thursday through
saturday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
tonight, a potent low pressure system continue to move northeast
through the midwest. this low pressure system will move a cold front
east across the area today providing additional support for showers
across the entire cwa. current upstream convection continues to
decay as it pushes east into an area with limited instability and a
capped layer. this should limit the severe potential across the
area, with eastern counties likely not even hearing thunder by the
time showers arrive early this morning. although the severe
potential is limited, these ongoing showers and isolated storms are
remaining developed enough to tap into a strong llj of 50-60 knots
that has pushed northeast over the area tonight ahead of the
boundary. this has resulted in periodic wind gusts of 40-50 mph
reaching the surface. given the limited influence from convection
itself, opted to handle the wind potential with a short fused wind
advisory across western counties until 3am. isolated gusts after 3am
remain possible, but should be less frequent in nature and thus the
advisory will be allowed to expire. elsewhere across the area, a
wind advisory will remain in effect until 11am this morning for erie
county, pa as strong southeast winds will become enhanced due to
downsloping and result in wind gusts up to 55 mph possible. periods
of heavy rainfall are possible with this area of showers, especially
in the most well developed cells. given the progressive nature of
the system, not expecting any flooding concerns, although localized
heavy rainfall may result in ponding on roadways and reductions in
visibilities.

winds should die down through this morning as showers begin to end
west to east as the cold front departs. this boundary looks to stall
somewhere east of the area which will become the path that another
low pressure system will move northeast across the ohio river
valley. the cwa will remain on the northern side of this low
pressure system, allowing for the potential for thunder to remain
very low given the much cooler airmass present. heavy rain is
possible as pwats greater than 1" and a very deep moisture layer
will allow for efficient rainfall. there remains limited concern
about the potential for flooding on wednesday as well given the
progressive nature of the low, but rainfall totals between the 2-
days could exceed 1", especially along and south of us30.

key message 2...
after the departure of the two aforementioned low pressure systems,
a canadian high pressure system will become established, allowing
for period of below average temperatures to pursue through the
weekend. high temperatures beginning wednesday will climb into the
50s with overnight lows thursday night through saturday night
falling into the 30s. will have to monitor overall trends in
temperatures as these overnight periods may require a frost headline
as much of the vegetation has already begun to grow across the area.
as always, there are various factors that could contribute to the
potential for frost, including the strength of winds and the impact
of clearing skies allowing the surface to further cool. will
continue to monitor all of these aspects in coming days. in
addition, the cpc has the entire area in an area of below average
temperatures into the first week of may in the 6-10 day outlook.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
conditions across the region vary between mvfr and low-end vfr as
the cold front works its way across eastern ohio. there may be some
breaks in the clouds that will create vfr ceilings this afternoon,
though most sites won`t stay vfr until later this evening around
00z. a low pressure system will enter the region from the southwest
tomorrow morning that will bring widespread showers/thunderstorms to
dropping conditions to non-vfr. sites out west to include ktol,
kmfd, and kfdy will only see showers for a few hours, though
ceilings should stay non-vfr through the end of the taf period. all
other sites will see showers through 18z tomorrow. kcle will have
showers clear out by around 19z and conditions should improve to
vfr.

winds currently are gusting up to 25-30 knots out of the west-
southwest behind the cold front. into the evening, winds will begin
to subside to around 10 knots and veer to be out of the northwest.
some locations in eastern ohio and western pennsylvania, could drop
lower and variable winds are possible. winds will increase to around
10 knots out of the north tomorrow morning with the approaching
low.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms on
wednesday and possible on thursday night/friday morning.

&&

.marine...
in the wake of a cold front that will track west to east across
lake erie beginning early today, offshore winds 20-30kts will
become westerly later today 10-15kts and wave heights decreasing
to 1-3ft in the nearshore and open water zones. another area of
low pressure that will move southwest to northeast just south of
the lake will bring winds onshore wednesday and wednesday night
10-20 kts with wave heights 2-4ft, then easing to 10-15kts
thursday and wave heights 1-3ft. these conditions will persist
through friday, and then winds become westerly 10-15kts for the
weekend, but wave height results are nearly the same in the
1-3ft range.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...23
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 281751
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
151 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

.key messages...

- cooler wednesday through saturday with highs in the 50s to
around 60 degrees.

- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.
the highest potential for freezing conditions will be friday
night into saturday morning.

- light rain possible sunday night through tuesday. additional
flooding from this rain not expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 149 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

a series of mid & upper-level disturbances will bring one more
chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the region
from late tonight through wednesday. models are in good agreement
with most areas seeing at least measurable precipitation, although
the best chance (>50%) of at least 0.25 inch appears to be focused
mainly along/south of us-24 per the latest href suite. not expecting
this additional rainfall to result in any increase to ongoing hydro
concerns. otherwise, precipitation chances appear to be fairly low
through the remainder of the week, though a light shower or two may
be possible at times with a few passing waves if sufficient moisture
is present. general troughiness aloft will keep temperatures on the
cooler side for some time, with a threat for frost over the next few
days starting wednesday night. the best chance for a possible freeze
currently looks to be friday night into saturday morning, but
overall confidence in a hard freeze is low at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 117 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

mvfr cigs for both taf sites with very moist air near the
surface trapped due to an inversion will continue this afternoon
with some improvement after 23z tue to vfr. however, a weak
disturbance will bring rain showers to both sites around 06z
wed or so before a return to mvfr cigs returns after 13z wed
through the remainder of this taf period. northwesterly winds
through the period becoming gusty after 13z wed with gusts
around 20 kts expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 281650
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1250 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

.key messages...

- precipitation chances end this morning with mostly dry conditions
through remainder of the day.

- shower chances return wednesday morning to early afternoon.

- much colder air arrives by late week and holds through the weekend
resulting in frost/freezing potential.

&&

.aviation...

pockets of vfr have developed across the east side of the airspace
amidst a blanket of mvfr ceilings across the rest of lower michigan.
ceiling heights trend upward through the afternoon as coverage
scatters out due to diurnal mixing, with the best chances for
clearing in the detroit metro region. breezy wsw flow gradually
veers nw and subsides this afternoon-evening as low pressure peels
off toward hudson bay. a second low then develops over the ohio
valley which further veers winds to the ne early wednesday morning,
introducing shower chances that linger through the morning. variable
ceilings likely a mixture of vfr and mvfr as moisture is drawn into
a strengthening deformation zone wednesday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon. moderate this
evening and overnight. high again wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 329 am edt tue apr 28 2026

discussion...

scattered showers are ongoing early this morning with ascent along
the warm front driven by an impressive 50-60 knot lower level jet.
lack of strong instability still precludes severe weather, but any
thunderstorm may still have at least some low potential to bring
down isolated strong wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall. wake low
winds may also lead to isolated gusty winds early this morning.
relatively brief time spent in the warm sector before the systems
cold front sweeps through southeast michigan later this morning as
the main surface low lifts north of lake superior. this maintains
the scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through about 12z
before dry air starts to push into the area. post frontal west winds
will be a gusty to 25-30 mph this afternoon as weak cold advection
supports mixing into around 30 knots of flow. gusts weaken this
evening as lower level flow drops significantly with time. lingering
clouds cover helps keep overnight lows tonight in the 40s.

canadian troughing takes over the region mid-week marking the
beginning to a stretch of below normal temperatures which will carry
into the month may. tomorrow morning will see a deepening surface
low lift through the ohio valley along existing frontal zone.
favorable placement of deformation north of the the low develops
over southeast michigan leading to increasing chance for showers
starting around 09z wednesday morning and lingering into the early
afternoon. highest pops are focused mainly across southern and
eastern southeast michigan.

the main item to note for the late week period into the weekend will
be the frost/freeze potential for a few nights as polar troughing
settles across the great lakes. north-northwest flow will usher in
850mb temperatures down to around -5c by thursday morning, which
will persist around that temperature through saturday night.
currently, thursday night and friday night look to be the coldest
nights given the cloud forecast and the better radiational cooling
potential. outgoing forecast has overnight lows these nights at 32
degrees to 2-3 degrees below. of lesser impact during this time,
will be the potential for periodic isolated lake induced light
precipitation in the form of rain, graupel, and/or wet snowflakes
each day as overlake instability produces higher coverage of clouds
and steepening lapse rates supports this activity. daily high
temperatures thursday through saturday will mostly reside around the
50 degree mark.

marine...

a low pressure system exits lake superior and moves into central
ontario this morning as its expansive low-level wind field migrates
across the central great lakes. a gale warning remains in effect for
the open waters of lake huron, north of sturgeon point. winds within
the lowest levels will decrease through the morning hours causing
lingering occasional gusts to gales to diminish. meanwhile,
inbound/ongoing convection persists until midday as the system`s
warm front surges across the eastern up. the elevated thunderstorms
should augment stability profiles, even as the strongest lower
column flow exits. small craft advisories also remain in effect for
all nearshore waters until at least this afternoon due to persistent
elevated winds/waves. the system`s cold front then crosses through
the waterways late this morning and into the midday period leading
to calmer weather and a shift to northwest flow. high pressure
eventually builds in mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.