Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
497
fxus61 kcle 291857
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
257 pm edt mon jun 29 2026

.what has changed...
parts of northwestern and northern ohio have been upgraded into an
extreme heat warning beginning tomorrow. the heat advisory has been
expanded to include northwestern pennsylvania.

&&

.key messages...
1) hot and humid conditions will continue through much of the week
as high pressure builds in to the southeast.

2) precipitation chances return to the region on friday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will continue to move north across the region this
evening into the early overnight hours. high pressure builds in
southeast of the area early tomorrow and will persist through much
of the week. as a result, there will be west to southwesterly flow
across the region that will bring in warm moist air with
temperatures and dew points climbing as a result. high temperatures
will rise up into the upper 80s to low 90s this evening then into
the mid to upper 90s through thursday. with dew points climbing into
the upper 60s to mid 70s, heat indices will be in climb over 100
degrees for all of the region. northwest and northern ohio will
climb above 105 starting tomorrow and have been upgraded to an
extreme heat warning. overnight lows will be mild throughout the
week will lows in the mid to upper 70s providing little relief to
the heat related impacts.

the upper level ridge begins to break down towards the end of the
week. temperatures are still expected to be above average with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend. heat related
headlines may need to be extended across much of ohio. though,
depending on how the precipitation unfolds late this week will
determine how warm some areas get.

key message 2...
as the upper level ridge breaks down and the surface high pressure
weakens, precipitation chances will return to the region beginning
on friday. global models show a shortwave across fairly zonal flow
moving through the region on friday, though there has been quite a
bit of variance in the models. will need to continue to monitor
this time frame to see how convection will impact our region
friday night into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
generally vfr conditions are expected through the taf period.
can not rule out an hour or two of mvfr visibilities between
10-12z tues morning but confidence is not very high. otherwise
scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon will tend to clear
tonight. expecting to see clouds increase in the 2500-4500 range
between 14-18z tomorrow and may be broken for an hour or two
before scattering out. we will also have occasional high clouds
moving overhead.

winds will be out of the south to southwest today except near
lake erie where lake breezes out of the north are already
occurring at eri and will reach cle by 19z. land breezes will
prevail tonight out of the south/southeast with southwesterly
winds returning on tuesday.

outlook...vfr.

&&

.marine...
generally light wind conditions of 15 knots or less expected
this week. onshore flow today will shift to southwesterly on
tuesday. occasional lake breezes are possible between cleveland
and erie. otherwise, chances of thunderstorms return to the
forecast beginning thursday night and continue through the
holiday weekend. showers and thunderstorms could lead to erratic
wind and wave conditions at times.

&&

.climate...
hotter and more humid weather is expected this monday through friday.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until noon edt tuesday for ohz003-006-017.
extreme heat warning from noon tuesday to 8 pm edt thursday
for ohz003-006>011-017>019.
heat advisory from noon tuesday to 8 pm edt thursday for
ohz012>014-020>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory from noon tuesday to 8 pm edt thursday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
749
fxus63 kiwx 291740
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
140 pm edt mon jun 29 2026

.key messages...

- extreme heat warning is in effect through thursday evening
for an extended period of high heat indices and limited
nighttime cooling.

- heat may remain a concern friday, but chances for showers and
thunderstorms begin to increase resulting in lower confidence
on the amount of impacts.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 140 pm edt mon jun 29 2026

forecast generally on track with the main focus into thursday
remaining on the extended period of heat and humidity. dewpoints
continue to climb and are somewhat concerning as hints of some of
the model blends are appearing as pockets of 76 to 78 degree values
are being noted even back into il. always a fine balance on how warm
air temps can get as the very high dewpoints arrive, but low to mid
90s still seem reasonable over the next several days. a strong mid
level cap, depicted by 700 mb temps of +12 to +15 c, should keep any
convective chances nearly non existent through at least wednesday.

starting thursday the upper level ridge begins to weak ever so
slightly and may allow for some widely scattered shower/storm
development mainly in the west or northwest. the ridge slowly gives
way over the weekend, especially sunday into next week as it
flattens out somewhat. chances for convection will generally be
diurnal, but will need to monitor for upstream complexes each day
and possible impacts. as for heat concerns, the warning continues
into thursday with some potential for extension into friday.


&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 112 pm edt mon jun 29 2026

vfr conditions expected through this taf period. some haze/mist
certainly would be possible over the next several days but at
this time confidence is low and have left any mention in the
overnight hours even with the small dewpoint depressions. also,
a few to scattered flat cumulus may be possible with the
daytime heating/surface instability but likely around 5000 ft
and again not high confidence at this time. southwesterly winds
will become breezy by tuesday afternoon with the diurnal heating
and gusts up to 20 kts expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for miz078>081-
177-277.
air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt
tuesday night for miz177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
075
fxus63 kdtx 291953
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
353 pm edt mon jun 29 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity continue to build this afternoon leading to peak
heat index in the mid to upper 90s, especially for locations inland
from the lakes.

- an extreme heat warning is now in effect tuesday afternoon through
thursday for high temperatures reaching the mid 90s to 100 degrees
and heat indices in excess of 105 degrees each day.

- there will be little nighttime relief as lows only cool into the
mid 70s with heat index around 80 each night.

- wednesday and thursday are the hottest days, however hot and humid
conditions also extend into friday and the holiday weekend along
with increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...

observations and the latest forecast data incoming today present no
big changes to the trajectory of heat building across se mi through
the mid week period. today is the transition day as temperatures and
humidity make a notable jump from weekend conditions while also
buffered somewhat by the se surface wind component and high clouds
from convection across the northern great lakes. highs in the lower
90s with heat index rising into the mid to upper 90s remain in reach
this afternoon for interior locations while the clouds and se wind
maintain a cooler profile toward the shorelines.

heat building into the extreme range during tuesday is primarily
driven by surface and low level wind veering sw in combination with
the slightly eastward shifting 594 dm 500 mb ridge. these larger
scale trends, also combined with deepening low pressure in central
canada, draw the full bermuda high air mass into southern lower mi
during the morning. afternoon peak heating takes it from there for
highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with surface td in the mid to
upper 70s yielding max heat index in the 105 to 110 range. guidance
temperatures in today`s forecast package then identify wednesday and
thursday as the peak in this heat event, at least in terms of max
temperature. both wednesday and thursday highs have a chance to
reach 100 and have a chance to break relatively low hanging dtw
record highs (ref climate section below). surface td is projected to
drop off a few degrees but still maintain heat index in the 105 to
110 range followed by nighttime readings only dropping into the mid
and upper 70s with heat index around 80. today`s upstream
observational evidence of these conditions across il/in and points
south/west, combined with the expected magnitude and duration of
this event, support the case for extreme heat and the upgrade from
watch to warning issued earlier this afternoon for the entire period
through thursday.

convective trends also demand forecast attention for both potential
coverage of cloud debris and eventually downstream mcs trajectories.
low level jet supported activity last night into the still ongoing
storms this afternoon are closely following the customary leading
edge cap temperature of 10 c or warmer at 700 mb. this thermal ridge
builds even more strongly over lower mi tonight into a position to
support both peak surface temperatures and also direct new
convection to the north closer to the surface front through
tuesday/tuesday night. cap predictability does drop off wednesday as
700 mb temps moderate and the surface cold front reaches the straits
region, however the larger scale pattern still favors storms holding
on a track across the northern great lakes through thursday.

the ridge is further suppressed by the deamplifying northern stream
mid/upper level westerlies during friday. this is the first sign of
heat dropping below peak, although the cold front is projected to
stall and wash out across the northern great lakes for no real
surface air mass change in se mi. the hazard potential of heat and
humidity for this time period will be evaluated/updated in upcoming
forecast cycles, however data appears to support at least some
relief below the warning threshold during the holiday weekend.

&&

.marine...

a warm front lifts across lower mi this evening and tonight.
prevailing southeast wind on the order of 10 kt continues over the
central great lakes with gusts to around 20 kt over lake huron. the
front continues pushing northeast across lake huron on tuesday with
wind gradually veering to southwest as much warmer and more humid
air builds into the area. the gradient will maintain sw wind of 10
to 15 kt tuesday through thursday, with gusts generally capped
around 20 kt due to increased stability from the hot air mass. there
will be a chance for thunderstorms over lake huron on tuesday as the
front lifts through, but confidence is low on timing. areas of fog
may develop over the cooler open waters as well. additional storms
will be most likely to occur near northern lake huron where the
stability is weakest this week.

&&

.climate...

.daily records for the upcoming week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 96 (1933) 77 (1945)
tue june 30 96 (1931) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1934) 75 (1945)
tue june 30 98 (1933) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1971) 75 (1971)
tue june 30 99 (1964) 77 (2018)
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 115 pm edt mon jun 29 2026

aviation...

high clouds continue to stream south across the area this afternoon
in response to convection slowly moving east across northern lower
michigan. continue to anticipate chances for showers/storms to
remain across the upper pensinula and northern lower michigan over
the next 24 hours. south to southwest flow dominates through
tomorrow. tuesday afternoon, with ample daytime mixing expect wind
gusts to increase closer to 20 knots.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are forecast for the d21
airspace through tuesday night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...extreme heat warning from noon tuesday to 8 pm edt thursday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......tf
climate......mv
aviation.....ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.