Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
536
fxus61 kcle 031117
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
717 am edt wed jun 3 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing in a period of showers and
thunderstorms saturday afternoon/evening, with pops increasing
to the 70/80% range. the latest forecast data is also trending
towards a low potential for severe weather saturday afternoon.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions continue with temperatures gradually warming
through friday.

2) the weather pattern will change for the weekend, allowing for
showers and storm chances for saturday through sunday. there is
low potential for severe weather saturday afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure over the great lakes region will allow for
continued dry and seasonable weather. as high pressure departs
to the southeast, southwest flow will allow for temperatures in
the 70s today to increase into the 80s thursday and friday.

key message 2...
an upper-level trough and cold front move southeast across the
great lakes region saturday and sunday. southwest low-level flow
and continued building of humidity will allow for a broad
favorable region for scattered showers and thunderstorms early
saturday morning through sunday afternoon, though there is
focused period of better forcing saturday afternoon/evening,
with a period of 70-80% pops (an increase from the previous
forecast).

latest model guidance has been trending towards a slightly more
favorable solution for a marginal severe weather threat
saturday afternoon. all three major model ensembles
(gefs/ens/cmc), have stronger flow aloft compared to the last
few cycles (resulting in better forcing and deep-layer shear).
uncertainty is primarily with timing of synoptic-scale features,
and with run-to-run consistency with model guidance.

consequently, the risk for flooding has decreased somewhat.
stronger flow should yield faster storm motions, reducing the
residence time of thunderstorms over any one particular
location. the high-end qpf signal in the nbm, particularly in
the 90-95 percentile range, has decreased compared to previous
cycles, further limiting the flood risk. however, high
pwats and other moisture indicators still support efficient
rainfall rates within thunderstorms, which could result in
minor, localized flooding in flood-prone locations.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with vfr to persist
through the taf period. winds will increase out of the north to
northeast this morning into the afternoon, enhanced by a lake
breeze, 4 to 7 knots. winds will gradually become light and
variable and may favor a slight southerly direction at times
late this evening and overnight.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms on saturday.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the week and
through the weekend as high pressure persists across the
region. overall flow will generally remain light through much
of the week, before shifting to the southwest late friday
through saturday, 10 to 15 knots, ahead of a low pressure
system and cold front. winds will shift towards the northwest
behind the front on sunday, around 10 knots. some thunderstorms
are possible with the cold front saturday afternoon and evening
which could pose a strong wind threat.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
279
fxus63 kiwx 031045
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
645 am edt wed jun 3 2026

.key messages...

- warm through early next week with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 50s and 60s.

- dry with partly to mostly sunny skies today and thursday.
increasing clouds thursday night into friday.

- chances for showers and thunderstorms starting friday
afternoon and continuing through the weekend.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 108 am edt wed jun 3 2026

an upper level ridge and surface high pressure linger over the great
lakes through thursday night, keeping winds fairly light and skies
partly to mostly sunny. highs will be in the low to mid 80s, warmest
thursday. lows will be in the 50s, and low to mid 60s.

the upper ridge sinks southeastward thursday night into friday, with
a broad trough extending from the canadian prairie down into a low
over the desert southwest. the northern stream portion moves
through our area as a mid level trough (somewhat zonal flow at
times), with a weak and transient surface low just north-
northeast of our area. this will bring a cold front through
roughly northwest to southeast by sunday. being on the
northwestern periphery of the upper ridge/the incoming trough
fri-sat makes us susceptible to various shortwaves rippling
through the mid-level flow, which makes specific timing
difficult to pin down at this point. it`s also possible the
incoming trough/any precipitation gets hung up in our northwest,
delaying the start of pops beyond the lake mi area until late
friday night/sat am. for now have the best chances (greater than
55 percent) building into areas north of us 24 after 8 pm fri,
then sinking southeastward through saturday evening/sun am. have
low (20- 30 percent) chances generally along/south of us 30) on
sunday, but this will depend on how far south the front gets.
highs remain in the 80s, lows in the 50s, 60s.

mostly dry conditions expected mon/tue with an omega-block setting
up around that time (how far east the ridge portion sets up and how
broad it is will determine any precip chances). highs remain in the
80s, lows in the 50s, 60s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 643 am edt wed jun 3 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals this period. an upper
level ridge/surface high pressure will allow for mostly clear
skies and light/variable winds this morning. winds strengthen
slightly (around 5-7kts) and shift s-se through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
083
fxus63 kdtx 031104
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
704 am edt wed jun 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warm through the middle of the week.

- the next chance of rain develops friday and continues through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

deep column high pressure will center over lower michigan today and
tonight. dry air in the lowest 5.0 kft agl and strong static
stability between 5.0 and 20.0 kft agl will ensure vfr conditions.
not expecting much cloud at all. variable winds this morning will
become light southerly this afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 314 am edt wed jun 3 2026

discussion...

lengthy quiet stretch of weather continues today as the center of
the persistent surface high passes over the great lakes this
morning. the high will slowly drift southeast through the day and
overnight reaching the mid atlantic coast by thursday afternoon.
flow will be light and variable today with only light northerly
winds aloft to start the day but the slow drift southward will allow
for a weak southwesterly wind to develop later in the day. looking
aloft, the blocking pattern is breaking with a strong wave passing
through canada which will flatten the amplified ridge over the great
lakes while folding it into the region. this will help develop
deeper southwesterly flow which will advect warmer air into the
region with 850mb temps rising over 10c, after hovering in the upper
single digits for a couple days, which will help boost high temps
into the 80s today.

continued warm air advection and influence of the ridge, will bump
temps up further on thursday into the mid to upper 80s. we`ll stay
dry yet again with dewpoints possibly breaking 50f in the afternoon
which keeps humidity in the 30 percent range. we stay warm on friday
but a slow moving front dropping toward the northern great lakes
will help focus moisture advecting along it along with remnant
convective waves later friday through saturday bringing chances of
showers and thunderstorms back to the area. this is all coinciding
with an upper level trough tracking over saturday as well. stacked
ridging then moves back in behind the passing front sunday which
should dry us back out. we`ll see how long the ridging can hold over
the region before stalled troughing west of lake mi finally pushes
east, which may not be til later in the week.

marine...

high pressure continues to sit atop the great lakes region today
into thursday, then pushing southeastward as a cold front comes
through on friday. north lake huron is expecting relatively light
winds shifting eastward, while southern lake huron, lake st. clair
and the coast of lake erie will experience relatively light winds
out of the north. this will then turn into a northerly flow for all
marine areas as we approach thursday into friday. as our cold front
approaches friday night into saturday, this will bring us our next
chance of rain and thunderstorms along with some breezy conditions
over the area.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...drk
marine.......mv/to


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.