Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
283
fxus61 kcle 252342
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
742 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front on
wednesday, and again on thursday afternoon. a few strong to severe
storms are possible, mainly across northwest ohio wednesday
afternoon and evening.

2) temperatures will trend warmer by the end of the weekend into
early next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a mid-level shortwave (25-30 knots of wsw 700 mb flow) will traverse
the base of an upper-level trough wednesday into thursday across
the great lakes as a cold front sweeps east through the area on
thursday. showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
front wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily impacting
portions of northwest ohio along the i-75 corridor, and again
thursday afternoon, generally east of the i-77 corridor. the
greatest threat for organized thunderstorms on wednesday will
be west of the area across portions of north-central indiana,
though depending on the eastward extent of the instability
gradient, a few of our counties along the i-75 corridor across
northwest ohio could see some strong to severe storms as well,
generally between 6 and 10 pm. damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
appear to be the primary concern, though large hail up to 1 inch
and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

showers and thunderstorms should largely diminish overnight as the
shortwave swings east through the ohio valley, though redevelopment
is possible again thursday afternoon with the aid of diurnal
heating, mainly east of the i-77 corridor. the latest guidance
suggests a decreasing risk for strong to severe storms thursday
afternoon as the greatest coverage of storms continues to trend
further east of the area into pennsylvania and southeast ohio.


key message 2..
after a brief stint of drier and seasonable weather, a large
upper-level ridge will enter the region towards the end of the
weekend into early next week with increasing temperatures and
humidity. highs will reach above average in the mid to upper 80s
on sunday, potentially touching 90 in some spots by monday. in
addition, we`ll also have to continue to monitor the potential
for showers and thunderstorms, especially monday night through
tuesday as an upper-level trough swings east through the upper
great lakes.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
high pressure will be overhead tonight with clear skies and
calm winds. patchy br with 4-5 sm visibility is briefly
possible early wednesday morning but probability was too low to
add to the taf at this time. additional afternoon cumulus cloud
are expected with southerly winds around 7-10 knots wednesday.

showers and thunderstorms approach from the west wednesday
afternoon, reaching ktol as early as 22z.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure overhead will result in lake breezes on lake erie
today, especially east of the lake erie islands. land breezes
will return tonight with south to southwest winds on wednesday
ahead of a cold front. winds increase to 10-20 knots ahead of
the front on wednesday night with waves of 2 to 4 feet in the
open waters. scattered thunderstorms may also accompany the
front from wednesday evening through thursday morning and may
result in erratic wind/wave conditions. winds shift to the north
behind the front on thursday night at 10-15 knots but are
expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria as winds
decrease quickly into friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
584
fxus63 kiwx 252254
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
654 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and much lower
humidity continue today.

- there is a slight risk for severe weather with all hazards possible
on wednesday. scattered severe storms are most likely between
4 to 11 pm edt.

- dry and slightly warmer thursday through the weekend ahead.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

with high pressure situated overhead again today, another tranquil
day is expected with mild and dry conditions. near normal
temperatures are expected today with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s as the airmass overhead moderates and light southwest winds
persist. comfortable humidity with dew points in the mid to upper
50s continues today too.

becoming increasingly warmer and humid wednesday with 40-70% chances
for rain and storms, especially by the afternoon and evening.
scattered severe weather will be possible as spc maintains a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) for our entire forecast area. an upper level low
will deepen over the hudson bay and an attendant surface cold front
is expected to move through during the afternoon and evening.
scattered yet short-lived light showers may occur in the morning
around daybreak with a leading weak shortwave, but they quickly
diminish. at least partial clearing should commence by the morning
into the early afternoon, allowing for the airmass overhead to
destabilize with increased waa and low level moisture transport from
veering southerly winds. isolated discrete storms could develop as
early as 1-2 pm edt in our far northwest near lake michigan
(especially if there is a lake breeze to enhance lift), but still
thinking the best chances for strong to severe storms hold off until
3-4 pm edt and later as the front moves east-southeast. given the
favorable diurnal timing, highs in the low 80s, and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to near 70, severe weather is possible as up to 2500 j/kg
of surface based instability and decent 0-6 km shear of ~30 kts
should develop wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of the front.
there is still some uncertainty to work out as to what exactly the
storm mode will be; it is possible that discrete supercells develop
initially before growing upscale into multicell/linear segments. all
hazards will be possible including damaging wind gusts to 60 mph,
quarter size hail, and a few tornadoes. it is worth noting that spc
has a 5% tornado probability for northern indiana and far southern
lower michigan when spin is maximized closest to the surface cold
front. low level profiles on forecast soundings do appear favorable
for tornadoes with 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 srh and lcls of 750m,
especially if discrete supercells end up being the primary storm
mode. the only ingredient that is lacking is the low and mid level
lapse rates. if lapse rates of only 6 to 6.5 c/km occur tomorrow,
this may be a possible failure mode and/or limiting factor for
convection.

another area of high pressure builds across the midwest and great
lakes late in the week, bringing a return to dry conditions thursday
through sunday. have kept low chances (20-30%) for rain and storms
for monday. temperatures will remain near normal with a gradual
warming trend into the mid 80s for highs by the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 651 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

high pressure remains in place for a majority of this taf
period, centered over far south-central mi. a cold front working
its way through western iowa at this time will be of interest
wednesday afternoon as isolated to scattered to thunderstorms
develop ahead of it. timing offers medium confidence and
likely extends beyond the 00z cut-off at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
678
fxus63 kdtx 252246
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
646 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

.key messages...

- warmer and increasingly humid wednesday with afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms; a few severe storms are possible.

- lingering chances for a isolated shower thursday afternoon, then
turning cooler and drier through the first half of the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure will slowly drift across the eastern great lakes
tonight. lingering dry air associated with this departing sfc high
will sustain vfr conditions into wed morning. increasing gradient
flow during the night will result in a light south wind. a late day
cold frontal passage on wednesday will sustain a chance of
convection wed afternoon/evng.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorm chances will increase late
wednesday afternoon and will continue into the evening in advance of
a cold front. current indications are for scattered to numerous
convection across the airspace late wed afternoon and evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunderstorms wednesday afternoon-evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 259 pm edt tue aug 25 2026

discussion...

low-level anticyclone and surface ridge depart this evening ahead of
a shortwave descending on the great lakes region tonight into
wednesday. temperatures should be bit a warmer overnight due to
thickening cloud cover ahead of the wave, with lows in the upper 50s
to around 60f.

expect a dry start on wednesday with strengthening gradient flow as
winds back south-southwesterly. pre-frontal/warm sector moistening
will be ongoing, well ahead of the boundary, marked by a sharp
increase in 925-700 mb thetae advection. the parent shortwave should
slow upon arrival, once the vertically stacked low reaches lake
superior by 12z wednesday. this slowing trend is supported in the
12z model data leading to increasing confidence in a later start
time for rainfall across most of southeast michigan. with the
exception of the tri-cities, the rest of the forecast area should
stay rain-free prior to 15z, if not 18z. showers and thunderstorms
should fire along the frontal slope once weak 800 mb (5 kft) capping
erodes during the diurnal ramp-up. non-convective gusts will mix
down, occasionally reaching 25-30 mph.

a low-end severe risk exists wednesday afternoon and evening as
mlcape builds above 1000 j/kg, although 0-6 km shear only improves
to 25-30 knots. srh also isn`t particularly impressive and struggles
to break 100 m2/s2, but the longer that winds stay backed/southerly,
the risk would increase for a low-end weak/short-lived tornado
threat. the main concern should be for gusty/damaging winds. latest
spc swody2 (marginal with slight south of i-96) appears to align
well with a subset of latest ml data. storm coverage should
generally be broken/linear, positioned along the front, and ought to
depart/conclude once the boundary exits by about 03z. a weak
secondary surface low may develop over the thumb, and would offer
rain potential into the overnight hours.

the shortwave will flatten and slowly get absorbed downstream into
the larger-scale trough feature. weak cva could persist through
thursday, providing enough ascent atop shallow boundary-layer
saturation to spur a few light showers/sprinkles, mainly during the
evening hours. surface high pressure builds in from the up friday
with modest northerly flow helping limit highs to the upper 70s as
850 mb temperatures drop into the single digits (celsius). the
surface ridge exits into the eastern great lakes over the weekend
with return flow shifting gradient winds southwesterly in advance of
the next possible system.

marine...

a high pressure system now centered over the great lakes will
maintain light winds and dry weather through the evening. southwest
flow to become better established overnight through tomorrow as high
pressure departs into the eastern great lakes. an approaching cold
front will strengthen the pressure gradient ahead of the front,
increasing wind speeds through the day tomorrow. wind gusts of 20 to
25 knots will be likely across saginaw bay given the favorable
fetch, where small craft advisories are now in effect. showers and
thunderstorms will also become increasingly likely with the passage
of the front, including a low chance for isolated strong
thunderstorm development capable of producing winds gusts aoa 34
knots. post-frontal northwest flow continues through thursday along
with low end chances for rain showers, with high pressure filling
back in friday and saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-
422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.