Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
371
fxus61 kcle 171919
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
319 pm edt sun may 17 2026

.what has changed...
the slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded east into northwest
ohio for late monday afternoon/evening. the slight risk (level 2
of 5) for tuesday has also been expanded further east into
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.key messages...
1) temperatures will be well above seasonal averages through early
this week. the warmest days will be monday and tuesday when highs
may approach daily records at a few sites. cooler temperatures
behind a cold front mid to late week.

2) localized strong to severe storms possible across northwest ohio
tomorrow. widespread showers and storms tuesday into early
wednesday, with severe storms possible tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer and
more humid conditions for monday and tuesday. highs warm into the
upper 80s areawide on monday and mid 80s by tuesday. area dewpoints
will peak in the mid-60s each afternoon. we will remain warm
overnight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, providing little overnight
relief. temperatures through the first half of may have been below
average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat to feel
noticeably warm. take steps to reduce time in the sun during the
warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

a cold front will swing east across the region tuesday into
wednesday allowing for a reprieve from above normal temperatures.
cooler wednesday and thursday with highs in the 60s before highs
reach the 70s friday into next weekend.

key message 2...

we`ll begin the week mainly dry with some potential for showers
and thunderstorms across the west in the afternoon and evening
as an upper shortwave moves overhead. the storm prediction
center has upgraded a small portion of northwest ohio to a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms with a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) extending along a line from
marblehead to carey and points west. this severe threat is driven
by the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail and
supported by a narrow corridor of moderate instability
(1000-1500 j/kg) given the warm and moist advection. expect for
any convection that moves into the region to decrease in
intensity as it pushes east into a less favorable environment
monday night.

more widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will be
likely on tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
the entire forecast area is either under a slight or marginal
risk for severe weather with the delineation occurring along a
line from corry pa to mount gilead. areas west of this line are
under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) and areas east and south of
this line under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5). the primary
hazards will again be damaging winds and large hail given the
instability and stronger low/mid level flow.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr is anticipated through the taf period, although there may be
brief periods of broken low-end vfr and possibly high-end mvfr
ceilings in diurnal cumulus this afternoon. skies will clear
this evening and persist through the remainder of the taf
period.

winds will be out of the southwest at roughly 6 to 12 knots with
variable winds likely at keri due to a lake breeze late this
afternoon into this evening. winds will become more southerly
and light at eastern terminals with winds remaining slightly
elevated at ktol/kfdy. a llj will develop in the western portion
of the cwa tonight and a period of llws is likely at ktol/kfdy
late tonight into early monday morning. south/southwest winds
will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots
during the day monday. higher winds are possible at western
terminals late monday morning into monday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms at
western terminals monday afternoon into monday evening. non-
vfr likely at times in showers/thunderstorms tuesday into
wednesday. non-vfr possible in showers on friday.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds this afternoon will give way to south
winds around 10 knots tonight. offshore flow will deepen in the
western basin monday afternoon with wind speeds increasing to 15
to 20 knots during peak diurnal mixing. at this point, it
appears that winds should remain just below small craft advisory
criteria and the higher waves will be focused into the open
waters. southwest winds around 10 knots will continue monday
night, however winds will likely reach 15 to 20 knots (possibly
as high as 20 to 25 knots) in the western and central basin
tuesday afternoon. small craft advisories may be needed for
tuesday. winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold front
wednesday and expect onshore flow 10 to 15 knots to continue
through wednesday night before winds shift to the northeast by
thursday. winds/waves will remain below small craft advisory
limits later this week, although some choppiness is likely with
the onshore flow.

&&

.climate...
high temperatures on monday and tuesday will approach record
values. the following are the records for may 18 and 19 at local
climate sites.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
247
fxus63 kiwx 171811
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
211 pm edt sun may 17 2026

.key messages...

- severe thunderstorms monday afternoon and evening. heavy rain,
damaging wind gusts, and hail are the the primary hazards.

- additional severe storms are anticipated on tuesday.

- remaining warm and humid through tuesday. cooler and dry by
wednesday with highs only in the 60s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 211 pm edt sun may 17 2026

the primary severe weather concern tomorrow evolves around what is
expected to be an upstream, mature, mcs early monday morning.
mcs maintenance is dependent, in part, on mid-level lapse
rates, instability, and bulk shear. instability appears to be a
non- issue across northern il and even northwest in on either
side of sunrise monday, with mucape values of 1,000-1,500 j/kg.
lapse rates near 7c/km are also favorable, but shear magnitude
of only 25 knots immediately ahead of the line is marginal at
best, in contrast to increased shear values behind the line
(which could be a result of the model-derived convection). given
the aformentioned nuances, and upper-level forcing lifting
north of our area, an incoming mcs from illinois in the morning
will be in a weakening phase as it approaches northwest indiana
just after sunrise.

the associated outflow boundary from this mcs is likely the catalyst
for afternoon severe thunderstorms (best window of opportunity
appears to be 1p to 10p edt). forecast soundings ahead of the line
show bountiful sfc and mu cape in excess of 2,000 j/kg while bulk
shear values is marginal near 25 knots. steep low-level lapse rates
suggest damaging winds are the primary hazard, as does the
anticipated linear storm mode. a southwesterly low-level shear
vector indicates a low tornado probability for the northern edge of
any mcs that develops. cannot rule out hail from any discrete storms
that develop ahead of the line. a final plausible outcome for monday
is that the weakening mcs moves from west to east monday morning
through midday, resulting in abundant cloud cover and steady rain
for a time which ultimately squashes the severe weather risk. given
the preceding instability (as noted above) this seems unlikely.

similarly, severe weather appears increasingly likely on tuesday as
the slow-moving cold front ultimately responsible for this active
weather pattern moves through. instability continues to be ample
while 0-6km shear improves toward 35 knots. with the cold front in
play, tornadoes are possible as well. fine details remain to be
seen, but early indications suggest a line of thunderstorms develops
to our west and moves through tuesday afternoon and evening.

notably cooler starting wednesday with highs only in the 60s. high
pressure promotes dry weather through at least friday, perhaps into
saturday, depending on the timing of the next disturbance lifting in
from the southern plains.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 145 pm edt sun may 17 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals. south-southwest
winds in the 15 to 25 knot range are expected today and monday,
with greatest gusts in the afternoon/early evening hours. lulls
are expected overnight as we decouple, with llws of 35 to 40
knots possible at both sites after 6z. a storm complex will move
from west to east across the area monday, with the best
potential at about 18z in the west and closer to 21z further
east. have a prob30 in for ksbn between 16-18z to capture this
potential--and left out of kfwa for now given arrival times
beyond this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
692
fxus63 kdtx 171854
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
254 pm edt sun may 17 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening, mainly along and north of i-69. damaging winds, large
hail and isolated tornadoes.

- the risk for severe weather exists again monday and tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and evening. warm and windy conditions will
also prevail.

- cooler conditions can be expected wednesday and thursday.

&&

.discussion...

ongoing surface analysis and trends show an increasingly more
buoyant/unstable airmass advecting northward toward a quasi
stationary front extending across the southern saginaw valley and
thumb. this may provide a focus more more robust convective
development later this afternoon/evening. ascent will be aided by
broad mid level height falls associated with an mcv that will track
across nrn lower mi late this afternoon and evening. the latest rap
indicates surface based cape nearing 2k j/kg feeding into the
frontal boundary this evening. respectable bulk shear and low level
helicity values will favor supercells, with damaging winds, large
hail and an isolated tornado remaining the primary severe weather
hazards. convective chances will decrease farther south due to
weaker forcing.

subtle short wave ridging will build across lower mi overnight in
the wake of the mcs passing across nrn lower mi. this will suppress
convective development late tonight into mon morning. remnant
boundary layer moisture convergence along the frontal boundary
around the saginaw bay and thumb region may support some localized
fog. although strengthening low level wind fields overnight will
largely be elevated from the nocturnal boundary layer, model
solutions indicate enough boundary layer flow to drive the front
north of the forecast area by daybreak monday, placing the entire
forecast area in the warm sector. the light flow combined with
elevated sfc dewpoints will warrant relative mild nighttime lows in
the 60s.

diurnal mixing will result in warm and windy conditions on monday.
while temperatures look to make another run into the 80s, the
potential for late day convection supports leaning toward the lower
end of the model guidance spectrum (low to mid 80s for highs).
convection timing and coverage will depend heavily on the upscale
convective growth upstream tonight. there is reasonable agreement
among the 12z hi res suite that convectively induced short wave
features will traverse se mi monday afternoon/evening, coinciding
with peak diurnal destabilization. the forced ascent would also erode
the mid level capping inversion, resulting in scattered to possibly
numerous thunderstorms. weak to moderate instability with good cape
density will result in a chance for severe storms, with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary severe weather hazards.

severe chances will be the forecast concern again on tuesday
associated with a cold front forecast to pass across se mi late
afternoon/evening. this front will be associated with a more
amplified mid level wave forecast across the northern great lakes
region. deeply sheared profiles within moderate instability will
again support strong to severe convection. warm and windy conditions
will also prevail in the prefrontal environment. model soundings
indicate 30 to 35 knots in the mixed layer, which may result in wind
gusts approaching 40 mph outside of any convection. strong high
pressure will expand across the region in the wake of the front by
wednesday, resulting in cooler and dry conditions.

&&

.marine...

cold front has stalled over southern lake huron this afternoon, with
southerly winds to its south and northeast winds to its north. main
marine concern this afternoon-evening is potential for strong to
severe thunderstorm development along the front and/or lake breezes
that have pushed inland from saginaw bay, lake st. clair, and lake
erie. all modes of severe weather are in play. lingering
thunderstorms push north across lake huron tonight, although the
severe threat wanes after sunset. unsettled conditions continue for
the first half of the week as warm and breezy southerly flow
supplies plenty of instability to the great lakes. wind gusts for
the lake huron shoreline/lake st. clair approach 30 knots monday-
tuesday, although an isolated gale force gust over saginaw bay
tuesday cannot be entirely ruled out. small craft advisories are in
effect for monday and will be needed again tuesday. strong to severe
thunderstorm chances exist both afternoons as well. a strong cold
front tuesday night results in a pattern shift for mid-week,
bringing a quieter, more seasonable pattern to the great lakes.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 108 pm edt sun may 17 2026

aviation...

a warm front located between kfnt and kmbs will be the focus for
convective initiation this afternoon and evening, bringing the
chance to see scattered to numerous thunderstorms. probabilities to
see thunderstorm activity will be higher across kmbs given the
location of the front, but will retain the tempo in kfnt until radar
and satellite imagery better define where initiation will take
place. confidence for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower
for locations south, but cannot rule out some isolated development
within the warm sector. confidence is too low to retain the prob30
for thunderstorms at this time. otherwise a 4-6kft cu field will
range from sct-bkn during daylight hours alongside mid to high based
cirrus from upstream activity.

d21/dtw convection...there will be a chance (15-20%) for an isolated
thunderstorm between 20z-24z

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening.

* low for ceilings aob 5000ft this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt monday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt monday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......mv
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.