Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
429
fxus61 kcle 010757
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
357 am edt tue sep 1 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track with advisory level heat indices for
northern and western ohio and severe weather potential for
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.

&&

.key messages...
1) hot and humid conditions are expected over the next few days with
heat indices approaching the low 100s. little relief is expected
overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

2) there is potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today
through friday bringing with it the potential for severe weather and
heavy rain.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the upper level ridge continues to build across the southeastern
conus allowing for temperatures and humidity to build across the
great lakes region through mid week. low level flow will generally
be out of the west to southwest into friday morning that will be the
main driver to advect in the warmer and moist air mass from the
south. 850mb temperatures will begin to warm today to around 20-22c
across the region and persist through thursday. the warmer side of
those temperatures will be across western ohio with temperatures a
few degrees cooler to the east. regardless, high temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s today then with more
widespread 90s on wednesday. dew points will also climb into the
upper 60s to low 70s. this will push heat indices up to the upper
90s to low 100s with the higher end out west where the current heat
advisory is issued. additionally, there will be little relief
overnight as lows will only drop down into the mid to low 70s. the
advisory is currently valid starting this afternoon through
wednesday evening. as with normal summer heat, take precautions when
outdoors and limit strenuous activities during peak heating periods.

there is some uncertainty with how warm the eastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania will get as rounds of precipitation is
expected through thursday. this will generally keep temperatures
"down" a bit with the precipitation and consistent cloud coverage.
though, there maybe enough breaks in the precipitation to allow for
temperatures to rise enough for heat indices to reach the upper 90s.
will have to watch how each system develops to see if an eastward
expansion of the advisory will be necessary over the next couple of
days. for thursday, a low pressure system will be moving to the
north, and will sweep a cold front through the region that day.
there should be enough widespread precipitation during the day to
keep temperatures down. the upper level ridge will begin to weaken
across the region and temperatures will fall to be more seasonal
this weekend.

key message 2...
along the upper level ridge, a series of shortwaves are expected to
move through the great lakes region beginning today through thursday
resulting in rounds of unsettled weather. a warm and moist air mass
will be in place across the region with a large surface high to the
south. ample instability of around 2000 mlcape will be in place for
much of the week with bulk shear vectors of around 35-40 knots.
pwats will also be elevated during this time period at 1.5-2.0", so
any thunderstorms that move through will have the threat for heavy
rain as well.

the first of the shortwaves are expected to move into the region
late tonight into early wednesday morning. there`s plenty of
uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of thunderstorms as
most cams disagree with each other. any storms should follow the
instability gradient which will be situated across northeastern
ohio, though how far west or east it sets up depends on if any
precipitation forms today along the lake shore and limits the
instability or if there is no development today and it builds east
further. timing is also an issue as some models have the feature
moving into northeastern ohio by 6z wednesday morning whereas other
are a few hours later. once the feature gets going up stream, there
will be a better idea of the timing and placement as it moves into
the region. there should be enough in place though that if storms do
form, the would be a damaging wind threat with a secondary threat of
large hail.

there will be a break in the precipitation after this feature moves
late wednesday morning into the afternoon. confidence is low, but
some thunderstorms are possible wednesday afternoon into the evening
developing off a lake breeze or outflows from the mornings storms.
though the majority should remain dry throughout the day. the next
round of thunderstorms are expected later wednesday night into
thursday morning. a low pressure system will be moving north of the
great lakes wednesday night into thursday and will sweep a cold
front through the region on thursday. the timing of the front is
still fairly uncertain as it has shifted over the past few model
runs and varies between models as well. if the front slows, then
there may be enough time thursday morning into the mid day to allow
for a greater severe weather threat. though, if it is on the quicker
side, then the severe threat may be lower. will need to monitor how
this develops with the convection earlier in the day and timing of
the front.

for the remainder of thursday into friday, showers and thunderstorms
are likely though should be more widespread with the front and with
the surface high to the south retreating. additionally, another
shortwave is possible late thursday into friday that will provide
enough support to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms around
the region into overnight friday. the weekend forecast currently is
trending dry as canadian high pressure builds southward over the
region.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
a pronounced ridge remains in place across the region with a few
weak waves riding atop the ridge in northwest flow. this will
favor continued isolated showers overnight across northern oh
and western pa, but exact timing and location are uncertain. for
that reason, will leave out of tafs tonight. expect widespread
high-vfr ceilings and light southerly winds less than 10 knots,
becoming southwesterly by morning. terminals across northeastern
oh and northwestern pa can expect gusts 15-20 knots by mid-day
tuesday, with hot and humid conditions aiding development of
low-vfr cumulus fields.

outlook...several rounds of thunderstorms are possible across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania late tuesday through
wednesday night, with a better chance at showers and storms
elsewhere in the area thursday and thursday night. potential
exists for an mcs early morning wednesday, with severe winds
and hail possible.

&&

.marine...
broad southwest flow is expected to continue as a stationary
front parks northeast of lake erie, with high pressure
entrenched to the south. this pattern will persist through
wednesday before a cold front moves south across the lake on
thursday and friday. winds could briefly gust to 20 knots with
frontal passage, though small craft advisories are not expected
at this time. unsettled conditions with multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are expected through friday, though exact timing
and location of thunderstorms is uncertain at this point. any
thunderstorms that do occur could become severe, with winds > 34
knots and hail > 0.75".

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt wednesday
for ohz003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036-037-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
454
fxus63 kiwx 010737
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
337 am edt tue sep 1 2026

.key messages...

- heat indices from the upper 90s to around 105 are expected
today and wednesday. a heat advisory is in effect. heat
indices around 100 may persist south of us route 30 into
thursday.

- an isolated thunderstorm is possible today into this evening
with greatest chances this afternoon and early evening.
widespread severe weather is not expected, but if an isolated
storm can develop, it would have the potential to produce
isolated damaging wind gusts mainly north of us route 30. some
isolated hail is also possible but of very low confidence.

- an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is also possible
late wednesday afternoon into wednesday evening mainly across
south central lower michigan and northwest ohio. isolated
damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail would be the
primary severe threats, but confidence in isolated severe
weather is low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 335 am edt tue sep 1 2026

showers have largely diminished across the area early this morning.
regional radar mosaic does depict some low coverage showers across
portions of north central illinois in what has been a persistent
zone of westerly flow isentropic upglide from north central illinois
into northwest ohio. one characteristic that has changed over past 6
to 12 hours is the northeast advection of warmer mid level profiles
as evident with substantial low level cin noted per kdvn and kilx
00z raob from last evening. this west-east oriented zone of
isentropic forcing will persist through daybreak although in
terms of mid/upper level forcing, this does appear to coincide
with a lull. did maintain some 15-20 pops across the northern
third into mid morning, but weak mid/upper level forcing and
somewhat more unfavorable mid level thermal profiles should keep
coverage very low if any showers are able to develop.

for this afternoon, some sheared vorticity associated with stronger
northern latitude westerlies will top the upper ridge and begin to
shift east across the western/southern great lakes late this
afternoon into early this evening. primary surface boundary will be
displaced well to the northwest but strong buoyancy is expected to
develop in pre-frontal environment from northeast il eastward
into southern lower mi/far northern in (mlcapes around 3000 j/kg
possible). the more robust shear profiles should be displaced
closer to main sfc boundary across, but deep layer shear
magnitudes on the order of 25 to 35 knots will likely have a
narrow spatial overlay with this stronger buoyancy north of the
us route 30 corridor. the very warm mid level profiles in place
raise some question as to the potential of surface based cin
lingering in the afternoon, although with the very warm/moist
near sfc airmass in place, would suspect this cin will be
minimal during peak hating. what appears to be a large component
missing today from an appreciable severe threat is any
pronounced stronger pre-frontal convergence or trigger
mechanism. aforementioned shear vorticity max will likely be
migrating northward across east central wi/central lower mi
later this afternoon/evening, with not a great juxtaposition of
forcing and better shear/instability. a marginal risk of severe
weather has been maintained today for areas roughly north of us
route 30 corridor which seems reasonable given
shear/instability combination. some persistent isentropic
upglide in 310-315k layer persists today which could aid in
initiation, but overall weak nature to mid/upper level forcing
continues to suggest very low confidence in severe weather
occurrence today.

for most, the main weather concern today will be high heat and
humidity, with warm/moist airmass now firmly in place across the
region. given aforementioned warmer mid level profiles and lack of
clear upstream wave early in the day, better insolation should be
realized today in comparison to past few days with most areas
reaching around 90 or lower 90s for highs. dew points should be
fairly uniform in low to possibly mid 70s across the area which
will produce heat indices in the upper 90s to around 105. given
continued low confidence in coverage of showers/storms even across
the north today, derived heat indices from this morning`s forecast
grids show rather minimal differences across the area with peak
afternoon heat indices. given wednesday should feature even greater
confidence in reaching advisory criteria area-wide, did go ahead and
extend the pre-existing heat advisory across the remainder of
southern lower michigan in effect from 18z today to 00z wednesday
evening for all areas. have not expanded this advisory into
thursday yet, but the possibility exists that areas roughly
along and south of us 30 may need the heat advisory extended
into early thursday evening.

in addition to the ongoing heat concerns for wednesday,
convective potential will once again need to be watched for
afternoon/evening. the larger scale primary upper trough will be
tracking across western quebec wed afternoon but another short
wave will be exiting out of the dakotas with a secondary
northward surge of a low level theta-e ridge across upper
midwest/corn belt. synoptic pattern would tend to favor frontal
boundary position north of the local area into early wednesday
evening, but if a more organized area of storms can form across
upper midwest/corn belt wednesday at nose of this secondary
theta-e max, it is possible associated outflow could modulate
position of this boundary to the southern lower michigan by
evening. in any event, stronger mid/upper level forcing still
looks to bypass the area to the north, and isolated severe
threat may require this southward modulation of effective
frontal boundary by upstream outflow which is of course of low
confidence at this time. day 2 marginal risk still remains in
place given potential of moderate to strong buoyancy and
persistence of sufficient deep vertical shear profiles. chances
of storms will likely persist through later night period
wednesday night as some increase in low level southwesterly flow
is expected later in the night which could generate some more
convection near this southern great lakes boundary.

for thursday, low level front will likely remained stalled
across the great lakes region given some mid level height
recovery across mid ms valley/western great lakes thu afternoon.
additional smaller scale short waves progressing through upper
ridge could interact with this boundary for additional
thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening, and perhaps
another day of isolated strong/severe potential.

medium range guidance remains consistent with transition in longwave
pattern to more amplitude fri-sat with maintenance of central conus
longwave ridge. this could keep local area positioned along
instability gradient for good portion of the late work
week/weekend period with some additional shower/storm chances as
additional nw waves dive down the ridge. this ridge positioning
should end concern for heat headlines later this week with
temps likely settling back near normal toward the end of this
forecast valid period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 146 am edt tue sep 1 2026

showers have largely diminished across northern indiana. some
weak renewed isentropic upglide is expected toward daybreak into
tuesday morning, but this advective forcing appears a bit weaker
than previous few mornings. some elevated instability will be
present, so while cannot rule out a few isolated showers and
storms across the region this morning, point probabilities are
too low for terminals for inclusion at this time. weak warm
advection forcing continues this afternoon and some indications
in guidance of a very weak mid level short wave progressing
across the southern great lakes. convective inhibition does not
look too strong to overcome today, but weakness in forcing may
be an issue in terms of convective initiation. will continue
with dry terminal forecast at this time. vfr conditions should
persist through this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory from 2 pm edt /1 pm cdt/ this afternoon to 8 pm
edt /7 pm cdt/ wednesday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-
020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt wednesday
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt wednesday
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
504
fxus63 kdtx 010841
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
441 am edt tue sep 1 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid conditions today and tomorrow.

- favorable conditions for potential severe weather exist today
through tomorrow. a marginal risk for severe weather is in place
today with wednesday a marginal to slight risk for tomorrow.

- more rain and thunderstorm chances during the late week.

&&

.aviation...

a brief period of fog development remains possible prior to daybreak
as high clouds exit the region, given the light winds and abundant
low level moisture. otherwise outside of a low chance for a stray
isolated shower, dry conditions continue this morning. this
afternoon and evening will showcase a highly conditional
thunderstorm environment. a capped environment is expected to limit
shower and thunderstorm coverage throughout the day. however, there
remains low end chances for isolated to scattered development in the
late afternoon and evening hours, possibly derived with lake
convergent boundaries. the boundary derived from lake erie would
place the metro terminals as the most favorable location for
development, thus will retain a prob30 group for this potential. any
thunderstorms would have the ability to rapidly intensify given the
high instability in place.

d21/dtw convection...there will be a low chance (20-30%) for
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening. strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible
with any thunderstorm development today.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 am edt tue sep 1 2026

discussion...

southeast michigan will reside on the northern periphery of a high
pressure ridge slowly migrating east across the oh/tn valleys to the
atlantic coast over the next several days. a warm and humid airmass
will settle into the area and persist and support chances for
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with some storms
possibly becoming strong to severe. models struggling to come to a
consensus with this pattern and predictability remains low over the
next 2-3 days.

for today, an 850-500 mb theta-e ridge axis containing deep moisture
will hover around lower michigan today and pivot northward later in
the day. surface dewpoints have already climbed to the 70 marks in
parts of the area this morning. the 00z raob from last evening
observed pwat at 1.60 inches with pwats approaching 2.00 inches
expected to pivot northward with the theta-e ridge. temperatures at
850 mb have also climbed to 20c and are forecast to hold around there
over the next couple days, which would support high temperatures up
to around 90 degrees. presence of a cap with warming mid-levels along
with some drying aloft is bringing some confidence that any
widespread convection is becoming less likely today. this leans the
forecast towards the higher temperature outcome putting heat indices
up toward 100 degrees in parts of lower michigan. it still looks
borderline for prolonged heat indices to 100 degrees or greater, so
will hold off on any headlines for now. regardless, a warm and muggy
day will be in store. while widespread convection looks unlikely
during much of the day, the underlying environment will be supportive
of strong to severe thunderstorms if any cells are able to overcome
any capping via local boundaries. sbcape values will be up to 2000+
j/kg with the nam advertising 4000-5000 j/kg by late afternoon.
effective shear will be up to 40+ knots and mid-level lapse rates
will be up to 6-7 c/km. late this afternoon into the early half of
tonight appears to be the best opportunity for potential convection
to develop while a shortwave also rounds the ridge across lake
michigan. confidence remains low on where convection may develop, but
the parts of the saginaw valley close to saginaw bay looks favored
by some of the latest guidance. will also need to keep an eye on any
upstream development that may try and roll into the forecast area.
any cells or clusters of cells that can develop will be capable of
strong to severe winds and hail along with heavy downpours that could
lead to localized flooding, thus the entire cwa is in a marginal
risk for severe weather.

for tomorrow, a shortwave within a belt of strong mid-level westerly
along with a potential nearby cold frontal boundary will be the
items of interest for another round of potential strong to severe
thunderstorm development. models again not offering much consensus
on how wednesday may play out, as some point to an early afternoon
uptick in convection while others point toward convection not
occuring until late in the day into wednesday night. timing of
convection ultimately will determine overall severe weather threat.
parameter space though bulk of the day will again be supportive of
isolated to scattered severe weather if timed well in the diurnal
cycle (mlcapes to 1000-3000 j/kg, effective shear to 40+ knots, and
mid-level lapse rates 6-7 c/km). severe wind and hail with locally
heavy rain will again be the main threats with a low end tornado
potential. the other item of note for wednesday will be the heat and
humidity bringing heat index values back up to around 100 degrees,
which will be dependent on how convection eventually plays out.
headlines may be possible if early day convection does not pan out
and less cloud cover allows for max heat index values to be realized.

aforementioned cold front will eventually be pushed southward
keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast late
wednesday night into thursday morning. though, instability will be
decreasing throughout the night. the frontal boundary hanging around
lower michigan thursday morning/afternoon will again provide a focus
for additional isolated strong to possibly severe convection as
another shortwave is advertised to crest the building ridge axis.
post frontal airmass does look to cool daytime temperatures back
down into the 80s for the late week period.

marine...

a low pressure system over southern manitoba will track through
ontario today resulting in periods of active weather locally. there
is an occluded front reaching down into northern minnesota with a
warm front then extending east through the straits and northern lake
huron. a series of mid level disturbances have been initiating
rounds of showers and thunderstorms which will continue to occur
through wednesday until the cold front drops through the region. any
break in the rain will be short lived as the front lifts back north
on thursday providing additional chances of storms. winds will be
fluctuating alot this week with the frequency of frontal passages.
the weak gradient will keep speeds down through the week though with
max wind gusts rarely touching 20 knots. the slightly cooler air
over the waters brings chances of waterspouts with any of the storms
over the lakes this week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense fog advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lhz361.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...aa
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.