Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
644
fxus61 kcle 101902
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
202 pm est tue feb 10 2026

.what has changed...
a period of freezing drizzle is possible across portions of nw
pa and possibly ne oh tonight so have adjusted the forecast to
introduce freezing drizzle potential. generally expect minimal
to minor impacts.

&&

.key messages...
1) a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible tonight before
lake effect snow showers develop across portions of the
snowbelt region of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
late tonight through early thursday.

2) temperatures will trend towards and possibly slight above normal
values late week through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
a cold front will move across the local area this afternoon
which may allow some light rain showers to develop in eastern
zones. at this point, it looks like the lower levels will be
too dry for any appreciable rainfall. there may be a brief
period of freezing drizzle across nw pa and possibly ne oh
later tonight as temperatures fall to or below freezing behind
the cold front, however there`s a chance that precipitation
doesn`t occur at all until the better push of cold air arrives
and lake effect/enhanced snow develops after midnight. either
way, any ice accumulations shouldn`t amount to more than a trace
with locally higher accumulations as high as one hundredth of
an inch possible across the higher terrain of interior nw pa.
opted against any headlines given the short duration and less
impactful timing of freezing drizzle, but will keep an eye on
the forecast through this evening.

periods of scattered lake effect/enhanced snow showers are
likely across the typical snowbelt areas of ne oh/nw pa late
tonight through at least early thursday morning. generally
expect light snowfall rates with maximum 30 to 36 hour snowfall
totals of 2 to 5 inches likely across the higher terrain of
inland northwest pennsylvania and lesser amounts elsewhere. the
extended duration of snowfall will result in less impacts and
headlines aren`t expected at this time, although there may be
periods of snow-covered roadways and/or reduced visibility in
any heavier snow bands that develop.

.key message 2...
high pressure will return to the area by the end of the week and
guidance is trending drier for the weekend (although there`s
still at least a small chance of scattered rain/snow showers on
sunday). despite the change in the rainfall forecast, a warming
trend is expected friday through early next week with near normal
temperatures anticipated friday and above normal high temperatures
expected over the weekend and into early next week.

the gradually warming temperatures will result in a relatively
gradual thaw/melt in snowpack and river ice. while minor ice
jam issues cannot be ruled out over the weekend and especially
next week, the thaw should be gradual enough to preclude a
significant ice jam flooding risk. heavy rainfall is not
expected through early next week so the relatively dry weather
will help mitigate hydro issues.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr across the taf sites early this afternoon with widespread
deterioration to mvfr ceilings late this evening and overnight
as a cold front moves southeast through the area. some lake
enhanced snow showers may accompany the front, though confidence
in placement remains low. although mvfr vsbys appear more
likely, can`t rule out brief ifr vsby drops within any heavier snow
showers, especially at cle/cak/yng/eri early wednesday morning.

winds are generally out of the south to southwest early this
afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
winds will shift towards the west behind a cold front late this
evening and overnight and diminish to 10 to 12 knots. west wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots may return late wednesday morning and
afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr likely in low ceilings wednesday night
through thursday. non-vfr may return in scattered rain and/or
snow showers on sunday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered, though recent satellite
imagery depicts several large cracks beginning to develop across the
central basin. winds will shift towards the west to northwest behind
a cold front tonight, 18 to 22 knots, which could contribute to
additional shifting of ice across lake erie. quieter marine
conditions are expected beginning thursday and should persist
through the weekend with offshore winds of generally 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 101836
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
136 pm est tue feb 10 2026

.key messages...

- quiet and dry through the work week with near normal temperatures.

- the persistent snowpack will continue to gradually, slowly
melt this week.

- 20-40% chances for rain late saturday through the day sunday.
minor flooding possible where any snowpack remains.

- mild air returns early next week with highs in the 50s!

&&

.discussion...
issued at 134 pm est tue feb 10 2026

earlier, around midday, temperatures soared into the mid 40s across
the area due to strong waa. south of us 24, upper 40s to low 50s
were observed! this mild air is short lived though as a cold front
is currently moving through the area this afternoon. as of 18z, it
is draped from southwest lower michigan into northwest indiana and
is steadily moving southeast. in the wake of the front, temperatures
are falling and winds shift to the northwest. satellite imagery also
shows additional mid level clouds behind the front that are expected
to advect in tonight. with clouds in place overnight and northwest
winds around 10 mph, radiational cooling will be limited. lows will
be in the mid to upper 20s.

quiet and dry weather is expected to continue this week with zonal
flow and temperatures near normal. intermittent sunshine, a higher
sun angle, and temperatures right around freezing during the day
will aid in additional melting of the snowpack. high pressure over
the great lakes will suppress any chances for precipitation
through the work week. expect highs in the low to mid 30s over
the next few days, with a gradual warm up to the 40s by the
weekend. the persistent snowpack will continue to gradually melt
this week. considering that several inches of the surface
ground still frozen, any water from melt should runoff into area
creeks and rivers rather than soak into the ground.

the next chance for precipitation comes late saturday night into
sunday. recent gfs and ecmwf runs depict an upper level trough
developing over california, eventually becoming highly amplified and
potentially even cutoff from the jetstream over the southeast us
over the weekend. ensemble guidance still varies on exact track,
timing, and precipitation type(s). our forecast area getting any
precipitation also depends on the strength of building high pressure
over ontario this weekend. we may end up sandwiched between the
two systems and not get any precipitation at all. if it does
precipitate, precipitation type will be dependent on the time of
day (rain vs snow). as for now, have kept most of the slight to
chance pops as rain as the dominant precipitation type on
sunday given that temperatures should be above freezing. there
may be some rain/snow mix sunday morning in the far northeast.
depending on the amount of snowpack remaining, if it does rain
on sunday, minor flooding is possible.

into early next week, a strong upper level ridge is expected to
build across the central and eastern conus. there is increasing
confidence for above normal temperatures early next week given a
decent signal from long range model guidance. highs may potentially
even rise into the 50s depending on how much the snowpack
deteriorates over the upcoming week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1232 pm est tue feb 10 2026

a dry day is in store for this taf period even as a couple of cold
fronts pass through. the secondary front is the main impactful one
and this brings adverse flight conditions to the area starting
around 4z as mvfr cigs arrive. this stratus deck is being observed
across the upper mississippi valley and northern plains this morning
behind the front. this is further enforced by the sustained
winds which look to stay around 10 kts for the bulk of the
overnight. it is interesting to see the sref showing higher
chances for visibility less than 1 mi across our southeast and
potentially affecting fwa, but would think that`s only going to
be the case if winds become slow enough to allow haze or fog
from the melting snow being trapped under an inversion. winds
are expected to stay out of the northwest for the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 102321
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
621 pm est tue feb 10 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with temperatures near average through thursday, then
a slight warm-up friday through this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

an increase in moisture under prevailing northwest flow in the wake
of a cold frontal passage yielding an expanding coverage of stratus
this evening. extensive mvfr stratus expected to persist overnight.
any pockets of morning clearing will prove short-lived, as daytime
heating in combination with some degree of lake moisture flux
solidifies a higher coverage of stratus throughout wednesday.
prevailing northwest wind turning modestly gusty wednesday
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 307 pm est tue feb 10 2026

discussion...

an upper jet streak sinking south across the central great lakes is
driving a weak low pressure system and dry cold front through the
region this afternoon. this is part of an elongated frontal zone
stretching from north of lake superior down to the southern plains.
brief residence within the warm sector brought temperatures to the
lower 40s for much of the area for the first time since mid january,
but a return to more typical conditions is expected for the next few
days as 850mb temps dip to around -13c behind this system.

for tonight, low-level moisture rides in on the cold advection which
will maintain stratus overnight into wednesday. a few deterministic
models continue to show a brief period of deep enough moisture to
produce light snow showers or flurries before dawn. ensemble
guidance advertises less than 10% chance for measurable
precipitation, so will maintain a dry forecast tonight. lows settle
into the 20s with northwest gradient wind of around 15 mph bringing
wind chill into the teens.

cool cyclonic flow into wednesday maintains a high coverage of lake
stratus across the region with potential for a flurry or two. the
upper air pattern becomes increasingly confluent late wednesday into
thursday which then allows a surface high to build into the area
from the midwest to favor continued dry weather. thermal troughing
will initially be slow to depart within prevailing northwest
trajectories, keeping highs in the 30s wednesday and thursday, then
there is high confidence in a slight warm-up late week. this occurs
as the high pressure shifts southeastward and return flow advects
higher temperatures into the great lakes. highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s are likely friday through the weekend.

a southern stream wave will send a low pressure system across the
southern conus this weekend, with low amplitude ridging favoring
mainly dry conditions across the great lakes. there is a subset of
ensemble guidance, mainly the canadian/geps suite, that brushes the
northern extent of this system into the southern great lakes. even
among the geps members, solutions vary considerably with regard to
qpf amount and precip type. outcomes range from over 1 inch of
liquid rain, to several inches of snow, to dry. with respect to the
most recent ensemble guidance (including the majority of gefs and
ens members that are dry), will maintain just a 20 to 25% chance of
rain and snow with room for adjustment later this week. temperatures
are favored to stay on the warm side of normal into next week.

marine...

progression of a low pressure system from northern lake superior to
lake ontario today into tomorrow morning will push a cold front
across the great lakes starting tonight. wind direction will
continue to back from west-southwest to northwest in the wake of the
cold front as wind speeds increase in response to the strengthening
pressure gradient and improved mixing depths. the latest model
trends have trended later for gale potential with some lower
confidence of frequent gale potential. however, some occasional gust
to gales will be possible, favored between 05z to 15z wed.

high pressure to gradually build in late in the day wednesday
through thursday which will end gale potential and will promote
lighter winds through the remainder of the midweek period. a clipper
system may encroach upon lake huron on friday which has potential to
bring wind gusts aoa 20 knots, but otherwise high pressure builds
back in over the weekend, maintaining lighter winds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 10 am est wednesday for lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.