Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
709 am edt mon jul 6 2026

...aviation 12z taf update...

.what has changed...
issued a new flood watch for portions of the area today. this
watch covers a combination of periods of heavy rain continuing
to stream off of lake erie into parts of northwest ohio through
this morning and into this afternoon, along with expected
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms farther east
across portions of north central and northeast ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are streaming off of western lake
erie into parts of northwest ohio this morning, with activity
expected to blossom elsewhere across the area this afternoon and
evening. locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain
concerns and a flood watch is in effect for parts of the area.

2) the next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
thursday into friday as the next cold front moves through.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the weak, stacked low-mid level low that drifted into the region
on sunday remains with us today before slowly exiting to the
east-southeast tonight and tuesday, providing for one more day
of rather unsettled conditions across the area.

the focus to start the day is from lake erie into parts of
northwest ohio. a surface trough is over the lake, focusing
cooler, convergent east-northeast low-level flow north of the
low pressure currently located between findlay and mansfield.
the warm lake waters are providing for a pool of instability
that is extending into northwest oh and has been fueling lake-
enhanced showers and thunderstorms with very efficient rain-
rates overnight. most hi-res models suggest this activity will
continue at times through at least this morning and quite
possibly into the afternoon...especially if models like the
hrrr, which has captured this overall setup well, prove correct.
given the general setup doesn`t change until this afternoon
when the trough axis starts shifting south and instability over
the lake begins decreasing, expect this activity to continue in
some fashion with embedded efficient/torrential rain rates.

the most torrential rainfall overnight has been over the lake,
but has impacted kelleys island where radar and a few personal
weather stations suggest 10-15" of rain has fallen since about 9
pm. peak hourly rates of over 5" per hour were observed. even
on the mainland, a slow-moving cluster of showers and storms
has dropped a quick 2-3" of rain on parts of eastern wood county
early this morning. most hi-res models suggest at least another
localized 2-4" of rain can occur within lake enhanced
convection through the afternoon, with some models such as the
hrrr depicting potential for localized 5"+ totals. given the
model signal, portions of the area seeing heavy rain on sunday,
and observed rain rates overnight have gone with a flood watch
for lucas, wood, ottawa, sandusky, erie, and huron counties
until 6 pm to advertise the continued potential for localized
flash flooding. rain totals will likely be sporadic across the
watch area...the greatest concern would be if slow-moving or
training convection impacts the more urban toledo area or places
that have otherwise seen heavy rain over the last 24 hours.

elsewhere, we are starting mainly dry this morning. the trough
axis over the lake is expected to push onshore across north
central and northeast ohio later this morning or early this
afternoon and gradually sag south-southeast across the region
through this evening. while activity may not be especially
focused or organized, decent coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and early evening along
the trough axis from parts of north central ohio points east-
southeast across much of northeast ohio. skinny instability
profiles and elevated precipitable water values of 1.60-1.80"
inches will support efficient rain-rates with convection, with
generally weak west flow aloft supporting slower storm potions
and potentially a bit of training along the sagging trough axis.
this adds up to potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding once again. the model signal is somewhat mediocre for
heavy rain, likely due to the fairly modest forcing. models
that seem to be capturing the setup best and handled sunday`s
setup better, such as the hrrr and 3km nam, have decent
coverage of convection with localized 2-4" qpf bullseye across
portions of north central and northeast oh this afternoon and
evening. with parts of the area more prone to run-off after
sunday`s rain and in collaboration with neighboring offices,
hoisted another flood watch from 11 am to 11 pm from lorain and
mansfield points east through the cleveland, akron, canton and
youngstown areas. a somewhat marginal watch, but if torrential
rates impact an urban area or places that saw heavy rainfall on
sunday localized flash flooding could quickly develop.

in terms of any severe weather potential today, we are not
outlooked by the storm prediction center and are not expecting
any sort of an organized severe weather threat given skinny,
somewhat marginal instability profiles and rather limited
amounts of vertical wind shear due to modest flow aloft. if
there is one thing to consider, it is that the low in the region
will provide for plenty of low-level vorticity, particularly
along the surface trough axis that will sag across the area this
afternoon and evening. with strong low-level instability
expected, a few stronger updrafts may stretch low-level
vorticity into the vertical and attain transient rotation. if
anything, this would encourage larger, slower-moving updrafts
that provide greater concern for heavy rain. if we see any more
sustained rotating updrafts as we did on sunday the concern for
locally gusty winds and perhaps a funnel cloud/low end tornado
would be there. overall, this seems to be on the less likely
side unless we see a convectively aided vort max or meso-low
develop like we did on sunday.

we will largely dry out tonight, though can`t rule out a few
lingering showers across southern/eastern portions of the area
closer to the departing low. isolated to widely scattered
showers, and perhaps a storm, will likely develop with daytime
heating on tuesday across eastern/southeastern portions of the
area. coverage should be much less than recent days with no real
concern for any severe weather or additional flooding. tranquil
conditions are expected tuesday night through early thursday.

key message 2...
the next cold front approaches from the northwest late thursday
and thursday night and crosses the area friday morning and early
afternoon. renewed shower and storm chances enter on thursday
ahead of the front and linger into friday. weak mid-level lapse
rates and fairly modest flow aloft point to a lower-end
potential for severe weather if anything. however, will still
keep an eye on the setup as we get closer, especially if we`re
able to see convection ahead of the front closer to peak heating
hours thursday afternoon or evening.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
the main message for aviation weather will be scattered showers
and thunderstorms today with variable flying conditions around
convection impacting taf sites. a weak low pressure system will
track eastward across the area today with pockets of heavier
convection expected to impact taf sites over northeast ohio and
nwpa. the general expectation is mvfr ceilings and conditions
outside of convection today into this evening. prob30 groups
highlight a 6 hour window where convection is possible to bring
at least ifr conditions if not briefly lifr weather today. ifr
ceilings may return for mfd, cle, cak, yng, and eri later
tonight through sunrise tuesday. winds will be variable around
the weak surface low tracking across the area today. easterly
to northeasterly winds around 8 to 12 knots expected north of
the surface low track. southeasterly to southerly winds 5 to 10
knots expected south of the low track.

outlook...non-vfr with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible through tuesday afternoon. scattered thunderstorms are
also possible thursday afternoon through friday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
a meso low is currently over the western basin of lake erie this
morning. this surface low will track slowly eastward today moving on
shore near the cleveland area. east to northeast flow will persist
over the lake today 10 to 20 knots. waves over the western and
central basin will be up to 4 feet and has prompted a small craft
advisory and associated beach hazard statements for a high risk of
rip currents through early evening. a small area of convection over
the western basin of lake erie associated with the meso low may
produce waterspouts through the morning hours. a residual weak
surface trough may linger over the upper ohio valley tuesday into
wednesday which would continue a northeasterly to northerly flow 8
to 15 knots over lake erie. a weak area of high pressure will
briefly build into the area thursday with a southwesterly flow 5 to
10 knots. a cold front will move across the area friday with a
northwesterly flow around 10 knots behind it. no other marine
headlines are expected for the rest of the week beside today.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz003-007-
009.
flood watch until 6 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>009-019.
beach hazards statement from 11 am edt this morning through
this evening for ohz010-011.
flood watch from 11 am edt this morning through this evening
for ohz010>013-020>023-029>033.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lez145-146.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
633 am edt mon jul 6 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop today with greatest coverage (30-50%) across much of northwest
ohio and along and south of us route 24 in northern indiana.

- severe weather is not expected today, but some brief heavy
downpours are possible. the threat of locally heavy rainfall
appears to be less than that of yesterday.

- dry weather returns tonight and tuesday with additional chances of
showers and thunderstorms thursday into friday.

- there is a moderate swim risk this afternoon and tonight for
southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 339 am edt mon jul 6 2026

a stagnant mid/upper level pattern continues today with continued
potential of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

rain showers have largely dissipated early this morning with just
some lingering patchy light rain across far ne in/south central
lower mi in association with some weak deformation forcing.
another area of heavier rain showers continues just downwind of
lake erie across portions of northwest ohio as far west as
lucas/wood counties. the mid level height minimum across far nw
ohio this morning will only slowly track eastward today,
reaching eastern lake erie vicinity by this evening. a mid level
trough axis will trail back to the southwest into portions of
central indiana and south central illinois as additional weak
synoptic upper level short waves dive southward across the mid
ms valley. scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to
develop during peak heating again today with most favored areas
along this trailing mid level trough axis. pwats and warm cloud
depths remain impressive today, although instability magnitudes
will be more muted with mlcapes on the order of 500-1000 j/kg.
deep layer/shear profiles remain quite weak today with slow
mean storm motions.

the locally heavy rain potential today should be more limited
as focus for stronger low level moisture convergence will have
shifted well to the east of the local area. while brief heavy
downpours are possible given the above factors today, not
expecting the locally heavy rainfall threat to be as significant
as yesterday. one item that may need to be watched a little
later this morning into early afternoon is potential of highest
rainfall amounts across portions of northwest ohio. low level
reflection of the departing mid level height minimum today will
continue to become augmented in northward extent by warm waters
over western lake erie (approximately warmest 80 to 90 climo
percentile with 78 to 80 degree water temps). these very warm
lake waters will act to enhance low level thickness ridge of the
low level reflection and should help to create resultant
stronger frictional convergence and some lake enhancement
downwind of lake erie. this setup should help create some higher
rainfall totals downwind of lake erie, but there is a good deal
of uncertainty how far inland this would occur with greater
confidence in these higher totals closer to the lake. any
lingering isolated/scattered showers should diminish early this
evening as the mid level trough axis finally sags south of the
local area.

quiet weather conditions are then expected through wednesday
as mid/upper level ridging builds back into the southern great
lakes. cannot rule out some patchy shallow fog across far
south/southeast tonight into early tuesday morning where some
higher crossover temps are likely to linger, but confidence in
fog remains too low to include in gridded forecast at this time.
low level thermal advections will be weak early this week, but
increased insolation into the middle of the week should allow
highs to warm back into the middle 80s most areas for tue-wed
with dew points more in check in the 60s.

an upper level short wave across northern california/nevada
today will top the longwave ridge tonight and into tuesday
eventually reaching the western great lakes late wednesday into
thursday. this dampening of the ridge will allow for another
round of warm/moist advective forcing by late wed/thu. given
initially more suppressed low level boundary placement, have
some suspicion strongest low level moisture convergence and
more favored area for heavier rainfall for thu-fri may be most
favored just southwest/south of the local area. have maintained
previous high chance/likely pops given the large scale advective
forcing nature to this scenario however for thu-fri. this will
be something to watch going forward as at least there will be
some strong mid/upper flow by late work week. there will at
least be a welcome break for first half of this week to allow
some areas to recover from the recent locally heavy rainfall.

for the longer term periods next weekend into early next week,
blended guidance suggests temps at or just above seasonable normals
with medium range guidance consensus depicting an amplifying
western conus upper level ridge. despite agreement in the
general nature of this amplifying longwave pattern, individual
gefs members exhibit very large discrepancy in upstream longwave
ridge amplitude and position which will have large impacts on
downstream temp/precip forecast across southern great lakes/ohio
valley.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 630 am edt mon jul 6 2026

a slow moving mid level circulation will drift across the
eastern great lakes today. some additional weak upper
perturbations digging south across the mid ms river valley
combined with this slow moving mid level disturbance will result
in a slow moving mid level trough axis sinking southeast across
ne indiana today. the greatest coverage of rain showers is
expected closer and just northwest of the mid level circulation
center across extreme ne in/nw oh , with scattered showers and
perhaps an isolated storm affecting kfwa area midday through mid
to late afternoon. instability is expected to be more limited
today, with low confidence in thunder occurrence at terminals.
as a result, will maintain prob30 shra mention at kfwa during
this period.

otherwise for today, initial ifr/mvfr cigs at terminals will
improve to vfr today, with earlier improvement this morning at
ksbn. mvfr conditions may persist through most of the morning at
kfwa due to closer proximity to low level trough axis. there is
a possibility some patchy stratus/patchy shallow fog could
redevelop at kfwa tonight into early tuesday morning, but
confidence in this scenario is too low to include in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
602 am edt mon jul 6 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, linger near
lake erie this morning. locally heavy rainfall remains a hazard with
any of this activity.

- otherwise, expanding high pressure brings drier conditions to se
mi through tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

- above normal temperatures in the upper 80s return by midweek.

&&

.aviation...

the backedge of the moisture shield around the passing low still
remains over a portion of se mi this morning until the trough
finishing pushing east. this will result in another day of potential
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the detroit taf sites.
hires models offer little help to pin point the location of precip
spanning anywhere from toledo up to between dtw and ptk. will cover
with a prob30 for now until confidence increases. mvfr conditions
should prevail til around noon before drier air and high pressure
starts expanding across the region. the rest of the day should be
timing cloud improvements with skc by evening. attention then turns
to fog potential early tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection...showers will be around the area this morning
with a low chance of a thunderstorm. so will cover precipitation
with shra and no mention of ts at this time.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet through monday morning. low monday
afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms in the vicinity this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 am edt mon jul 6 2026

discussion...

mid level trough axis is in the process of departing for the eastern
ohio valley this morning. before this fully occurs, scattered
showers will linger across the southeasternmost portions of the
area, focused towards the lake erie shore. given these areas still
under the fringe of prior humid airmass, weak elevated instability
offers some isolated thunder potential. locally heavy rainfall
remains a hazard with any of these showers as the prior day
environment (pw just 2", warm cloud layers >10kft, and slow storm
motion) is still in play. high res model guidance favors the most
frequent activity towards northern oh, aided by the eastward shift
in the shortwave, so held off on a flood watch for monroe county.
for the rest of se mi, height rises tied to mid-upper ridging begin
to fold in from northwestern great lakes as surface high pressure
maintains light northeast winds. drier accompanying airmass erodes
the persistent humidity as pwats fall from ~1.8" this morning to
around 1" by evening and eventually sub 1" by tuesday am. cooler
flow is partially offset by dry advection promoting north to south
clearing allowing temperatures to reach lower 80s for most areas
outside the eastern thumb and far southern mi. little change for
tuesday as surface high pressure drifts over lower mi, though sunny
skies will allow highs a few degrees warmer in the mid 80s.

above normal temperatures look to return midweek as upper ridging
over the plains is flattened into the great lakes by troughing
ejecting out of the northern rockies. while the core of the hottest
air (850mb 20c) remains over the central plains, 850mb temps locally
make a run into the upper teens c wednesday-thursday supporting
highs back in the upper 80s. aforementioned trough eventually works
into the great lakes thursday-friday bringing the area`s next
chances at seeing showers/storms.

marine...

high pressure builds in through today and tomorrow which will
greatly mitigate rain chances while supporting lighter winds. the
exception will be through the saginaw bay, as the favorable
northeast flow brings localized stronger winds. winds are expected
to peak around 19 to 22 knots this afternoon which will remain just
shy of small craft advisory thresholds. wind direction veers to the
southwest wednesday and thursday as high pressure washes out across
the appalachia region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.