Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 021918
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
218 pm est tue dec 2 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure departs to the northeast this afternoon and high
pressure will build in briefly south of the region through
wednesday. a cold front will sweep across the region early thursday
followed by high pressure building in on friday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
an upper level trough is moving through the region this evening and
will push off to the east with the accompanying surface low
pressure. at the surface, snow as ended for the majority of the
region with a few exceptions along the lake shore. currently there
are a few mesovortices moving north to south into an area stretching
from lorain co northeast through lake co in ohio. this has been
bringing visibilities down to less than a mile in some cases.
though, with the size of the feature and the snow rates being low,
accumulations will be minimal, but could still bring in hazardous
conditions while out and about. elsewhere, there are pockets of snow
bringing similar conditions to those areas, mainly within the
primary and secondary snowbelts at this time. these conditions will
continue off and on through this evening until drier air moves in
from the west. the winter weather advisory will continue through 7pm
tonight for this since conditions can quickly deteriorate within a
snow band.

early wednesday, upper level ridging will begin to build into the
region and there should be dry weather through much of the day. to
the north, upper level trough begins to develop and will push east
across the hudson bay. this will support a surface cold front that
will move into the region late wednesday night. this arctic front
will bring widespread snow showers to the region with a concentrated
area along the lake shore in the primary and secondary snowbelts.
areas in northeast ohio could see totals from 1-3 inches and areas
in northwest pennsylvania could see 2-4 inches with the highest
totals near the pennsylvania/new york border. the front should clear
the region early thursday morning and snow showers should end for
the majority of the region.

temperatures in the near term will stay below normal with overnight
lows down into the upper teens to low 20s and highs in the low to
mid 30s.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
on thursday, the aforementioned cold front will have exited the
region to the east though there will be some lingering snow showers
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. snow showers should
end throughout the day as drier air moves in behind the front and
surface high pressure builds in from the west. winds will be fairly
elevated behind the front at 5-15 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph.
this will bring wind chills down into the teens throughout the day
on thursday. temperatures will be in the mid 20s on thursday and
then drop down into low teens for much of the region away from the
lake shore. with the elevated winds, wind chills will be well into
the single digits to start friday morning, with some areas nearing
zero. temperatures should recover fairly well throughout the day as
the high pressure builds off to the east and winds shift to be out
of the south. highs for the day will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
friday night lows will be down into the mid to upper teens.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
on saturday, a low pressure system will develop to the north of the
region and sweep a cold front across the region. this will potential
bring another round of snow showers to the region with some lake
effect snow on the back end of the system. will continue to monitor
this as it develops. for sunday and the start to next week, there is
some disagreements within the models of the strength and timing of
any features. there is slight agreement in upper level troughing
starting to develop across central conus, but again, with how far
out this system is, it`s difficult to say the impacts. what there is
more confidence in is the temperatures for the long term.
temperatures will continue to be below average for the highs and
overnight lows.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
a mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area this
afternoon as a trough pivots across the area. ahead of the trough
axis, light snow showers continue to impact terminals with generally
mvfr to high end ifr conditions being observed. there is local
enhancement of snow showers pivoting off of lake erie which have the
potential to reduce conditions at kcle to ifr/lifr as it drifts east
over the next few hours. as the trough axis departs east this
afternoon, a general northwest flow will develop and allow for
additional lake enhanced snow showers to impact portions of the
snowbelt. this may result in further reductions to visibilities at
kcle and keri, with possible impacts as far inland as kcak and kyng.
all snow showers should end by wednesday morning, allowing for
conditions to gradually improve from west to east to vfr by
wednesday afternoon.

light northwest winds under 8 knots will persist into tonight before
veering and becoming southwesterly by wednesday morning. these
southwest winds will increase to 5-10 knots, approaching 12 knots
across western terminals at the end of this period. periodic gusts
up to 20 knots will also be possible at these terminals.

outlook...non-vfr likely wednesday evening into thursday in snow along
a cold front. non-vfr may return in scattered snow showers on
friday.

&&

.marine...
as a weak high pressure system slowly drifts east across the area
today, calm marine conditions are expected to linger across lake
erie through tonight. on wednesday, a low pressure system is
expected to push southeast across ontario towards the region,
eventually moving a cold front east late wednesday into thursday. as
the gradient increases across lake erie on wednesday, southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20-25 knots with locally higher
winds possible across the open waters. given the offshore flow,
waves along the southern coast of lake erie will generally range
from 4-6 feet, although locally high is possible at times. in
addition, the strong southwest flow may result in low water
conditions across the western basin where lake levels may fall
below the critical mark for safe navigation.

as the aforementioned cold front moves east wednesday evening into
the overnight hours, winds will back behind the boundary to become
northwesterly at 20-25 knots. this strong onshore flow will increase
waves to 6-8 feet across the central and eastern basins with 4-6
feet across the western basin. these hazardous waves and winds are
expected to continue through thursday. this entire period from
wednesday late morning through thursday afternoon will need a small
craft advisory as marine conditions will once again become
dangerous. by late thursday into friday, high pressure will return
allowing for a brief return to calm marine conditions. winds will
persist from the southwest at 15-20 knots into the start of the
weekend before becoming northwesterly at 10-15 knots behind a cold
front late saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
ohz010>014-020-021-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...23
near term...23
short term...23
long term...23
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 022315
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 pm est tue dec 2 2025

.key messages...

- a strong cold front pushes across the area on wednesday and
will likely be accompanied by some light snow accumulations of
around an inch.

- much colder air moves in for middle of the week with lows near
0 by thursday night and wind chills as cold as 10 below. some
moderation in temperatures for the weekend, but still below
normal.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 236 pm est tue dec 2 2025

high pressure takes over this afternoon behind a departing trough
and warming return flow takes over on the back side of the high
after 6z. there is some question about how much the clouds are able
to break up this evening, but given the extent of the fog we`ve had
the last couple of mornings, perhaps helped along by the moisture
from wet roadways trapped under a forming inversion, could see some
fog by the morning. aviation guidance seems to point to fog in areas
north of us-24, but that has also slackened back on the intensity
since the morning runs. one issue with the possibility of
evening/overnight fog formation is that boundary layer winds could
stay just strong enough to restrict it to more of a stratus deck.
have handled this with some patchy fog. one other piece of note is
the possibility for some seeder feeder freezing drizzle as high
clouds overtop the low level moisture with the lift approaching and
temperatures staying below freezing tonight. there`s not too much
confidence in this though as most of those parcel trajectories
traverse lake mi so will just discuss the chance here.

then, as a shortwave rounds the base of the trough associated with
the upper low in central canada, a cold front pushes southeastward
for wednesday. as the area of convergence slides down the eastern
side of lake mi, wouldn`t be surprised to see some lake enhancement
with over 50 j/kg of sbcape and -2 theta-e lapse rates, and low
level winds obtaining more of a northerly component approaching
berrien county by 21z. lake induced inversions are marginal,
reaching around 1.5 km and delta ts reach around 15 c at most. this
keeps the omega below the dgz until around 00z as the cold air
begins to arrive on nw winds. the lake induced cape values drop
between 00 and 06z and low level moisture also begins to drop during
that time. it`s also pretty nearly a dry dgz for a short time, so
wouldn`t be surprised to see some freezing drizzle mix in here and
there. have kept this out of the forecast for now, though due to low
confidence in its possibility. the other limiting factor for lake
enhanced snow is that the main vort max passes by to the north of
the area as opposed to moving through the tear drop of lake mi so
forcing is not conducive.

following the cold front, a 1035 mb high pressure system dives
southeast from the northern plains into the mississippi valley and
lower great lakes regions for thursday and thursday night. as such,
850 mb temps fall to -10c to -15c by 12z thursday. as this swings
into the area, the gradient increases which helps increase winds.
bufkit soundings/ momentum transfer indicate a period of 15 to 25
mph wind gusts may occur and this could allow for cold weather
advisory conditions overnight. those relax quickly thursday morning
so it`ll be interesting to see if there`s some overlap at all
between the arriving cold air and the lingering wind gusts. the
other factor would be if there`s any lingering new snow from the
wednesday front that could enhance radiational cooling to take temps
lower should winds end up weaker. highs on thursday struggle to get
out of the 20s and lows thursday night drop towards either side of 0
degrees.

the core of the cold swings through on thursday pretty quickly and
is already moving away before the worst of the cold thursday night.
the back side of the high is already providing warming return flow
thursday night through friday night, which is when we expect the
coldest temperatures to be. friday stays securely in the low 20s and
lows friday night are already back towards the mid teens.

friday through saturday, some weak shortwaves move through in the
flow, but a mix of sun and clouds should be the main story as
suppression and subsidence keep precip at bay. we`ll have to
look forward to later this weekend for our next system.
discrepancies in their storm track and wave handling create
model output differences. however, it does appear cold enough to
produce snow.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 615 pm est tue dec 2 2025

difficult aviation forecast tonight with a thin layer of low
stratus that models are struggling to resolve and potential for
fog if the stratus does scatter out. for now, observational
trends suggest stratus will hold firm through the night so will
keep that going longer and limit any fog mention. however,
confidence is not high and adjustments may be needed. low
confidence on exact ceiling heights as well given most locations
currently below 1 kft but most guidance suggesting ceilings
around 2 kft. some brief vfr possible at kfwa wed morning but
ksbn will likely remain under low stratus. more light snow
likely late wed afternoon as a strong cold front approaches the
region.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 1 am wednesday to 7 pm est thursday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 022336
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 pm est tue dec 2 2025

.key messages...

- temperatures will remain well below normal throughout the week.
the coldest conditions arrive thursday and friday mornings with wind
chill values bottoming out at or below zero.

- arctic front will bring the potential for snow showers late
wednesday, with a dusting to just under an inch of accumulation.

&&

.aviation...

large scale forcing supports shortwave ridging aloft and high
pressure at the surface tonight across southeast michigan. first
glance of forecast soundings suggest a substantial lowering of the
inversion with time tonight which would usually help to dry the
lower troposphere out. however, difficult forecast as extensive mvfr
stratus deck is in place immediately to the south and west of the taf
sites this evening. flow will eventually emerge out of the southwest
which will help advect moisture below the inversion and cloud to the
northeast into the taf sites. developing pseudo warm sector ahead of
the cold front should aid in a lifting ceiling and breaks wednesday.
the potential does exist for scattered snow showers along the cold
front 20z-00z wednesday. included a tempo for snow showers at dtw
this issuance.

for dtw... some breaks in the clouds exist in vicinity of dtw with
extensive stratus immediately to the south and west. expecting
prevailing mvfr ceilings developing and holding for much of tonight.
warm sector development will support vfr ceilings wednesday. did
time out some mvfr snow shower potential after 23z wednesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft again this evening and
wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 306 pm est tue dec 2 2025

discussion...

a sfc to 850mb mid level ridge axis will slide east of the forecast
area this evening. increasing southwest flow in the wake of the
ridge and in advance of an arctic front will force warm air
advection atop the shallow cold layer, causing a lowering the
inversion during the night. in light of upstream observations, this
should hold a good deal of stratus overhead through much of the
night, which will limit nocturnal cooling and support lows in the
20s.

mid level height falls within the base of a hudson bay upper low
will help drive the arctic front across se mi wednesday afternoon
and evening. the prefrontal southwest flow will advect some added
low level moisture off lake michigan into the frontal system. model
cross sectional analyses indicates the ascent along the front to be
fairly shallow with a limited duration of deep layer moisture
present. while post frontal low level lapse are steep, equilibrium
levels on model soundings are less than 6k ft. by the time the
column gets cold enough to support dendrites, aggressive drying will
occur. these factors will likely keep the coverage of any lingering
post frontal snow showers minimal. model derived qpf is therefore
only a few hundreds, equating to generally a dusting to less than an
inch of total snowfall. even the 90 percentile 24-hour snow accums on
the model blend has an inch or less.

the main impact associated with the front will be the cold airmass
which gets advected into se mi as 925mb temps are forecast between
minus 14 and minus 15 thurs morning, warranting forecast highs in
the upper teens/low 20s on thursday. this is a good 20 degrees below
early december averages. model soundings suggest 20 to 25 knots in
the mixed layer thurs morning, leading to gusty winds which will
force wind chill readings near or a few degrees below zero. the cold
air depth will be greater across the northern lakes, where lake
effect activity will be confined. even with the low level flow
backing southwest during the afternoon, low inversion heights and
very dry air associated with sfc high pressure across the ohio valley
will inhibit lake effect activity off southern lake michigan.
progressive flow shown by model solution indicate the high pressure
departing east by friday as a short wave impulse traverses the
northern lakes. continued limited moisture and forcing across se mi
will remain supportive of a dry forecast through the end of the work
week.

marine...

high pressure over the region today will slide eastward overnight
but remain in control of the eastern lakes. southwesterly winds will
be increasing tonight as the gradient tightens from an approaching
trough that will send a cold front through the region wednesday
afternoon. wind gusts will reach 25 to 30 knots across lake huron by
morning which will necessitate the small craft advisory that begins
tonight. a strong low pressure system over hudson bay will send the
cold front through in the afternoon with very cold arctic air
entering the region in the wake of the front. the front will flip
the winds around to the northwest while the arctic air increases the
winds gusts of 30 to 35 knots possible thursday morning. most
guidance still offers little support for wind gusts to reach gales
for any notable amount of time during this period so will continue
to hold off on any gale headlines and mention the potential for a
few gusts to gales instead.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sc
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.