Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
647 am est fri feb 6 2026

.what has changed...
the winter weather advisory has been expanded to include much of
the area for the clipper moving through today and tonight, due
to a combination of: 1) light to moderate snow this morning
through midday, with the greatest snow rates and impacts across
our southwestern counties, 2) snow showers and squalls along
and just behind an arctic front this evening, especially across
northeast oh and northwest pa, and 3) a period of gusty winds
and blowing snow behind the arctic front this evening. no
substantial changes to the rest of the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) a period of light to moderate snow will impact the entire
area this morning, with a period of snow covered roads and
reduced visibility likely to slow travel. the greatest impacts
will be southwest of a bowling green to millersburg line.

2.) after a few hours of little snow and drier weather, an
arctic cold front crosses the area between 4 pm and 8 pm today.
a broken band of snow showers and potential squalls will
accompany the front. behind the front, a few hours of strong
gusty winds and blowing/drifting snow, quickly falling
temperatures, and some (limited) lake enhanced snow is
expected. this all is likely to lead to a period of hazardous
travel conditions area-wide this evening.

3.) another round of dangerously cold conditions returns
overnight tonight into saturday morning, with cold weather
advisories and extreme cold warnings in effect. additional
advisories may be needed for saturday night-early sunday.

4.) outside of low chances for light snow, dry weather is
expected sunday through most of tuesday. temperatures will begin
to notably moderate monday and tuesday.

5.) the next organized system looks to move through the area
tuesday night and wednesday. with a push of milder air, the
forecast currently calls for a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
a fairly potent shortwave will dive southeast from the western
great lakes into the upper ohio valley through early this
afternoon. a band of lift ahead of this shortwave (a combination
of height falls/pva and low-mid level warm air advection) will
spread over the area this morning, bringing an area-wide light
snow. the strongest low-mid level warm air advection, and
perhaps some transient mid-level frontogenesis, will clip our
southwestern counties where a more moderate period of snow is
likely this morning...with somewhat weaker/broader lift
supporting generally lighter snow rates elsewhere across the
area. this lift quickly shifts to the southeast by midday or
early afternoon, taking the accumulating snow with it and
ushering in what will be a brief period of mainly dry weather.

with air temperatures in the upper 10s/lower 20s this morning as
snow arrives, and only slow warming until closer to midday, snow
will be able to accumulate on roads and impact travel. this
snow is expected to spread across the area pretty quickly
between 5-8 am from west-northwest to east-southeast, posing
some impacts to the morning commute, particularly across
northwest ohio where the onset will be earliest. hi-res guidance
suggests a ~3 hour window of snow rates of 0.5-1.0" per hour
may clip our southwest counties (southwest of roughly a bowling
green to millersburg line) this morning, and it`s this area
where we have a quick 2-3" in the forecast by midday and where
travel impacts will be greatest this morning. snow rates should
remain lighter across the rest of the area, where a general inch
to locally two is in the forecast through midday. this will
lead to more mild impacts this morning across the rest of the
area though with some snow accumulations on roads still likely,
particularly on secondary/side roads.

part of the reasoning for the winter wx advisory expansion was
likely impacts to the morning commute with this morning snow,
especially across our southwesternmost counties.


.key message 2...
a shortwave will dive into the eastern great lakes this evening
and tonight, with the aforementioned arctic cold front at the
surface pushing southeast across the region between 4-8 pm.

it is important to note that there will be a relative lull for a
few hours this afternoon, behind the morning snow and ahead of
an arctic front. this will allow road crews to briefly get
things into good shape, but it`s important to emphasize to the
public that conditions go back downhill this evening.

along the front itself, strong low-level frontogenesis/convergence
will combine with weak instability just ahead of the front to
bring snow shower and squall potential area-wide. snow squalls
can drop a very quick 0.5-1.5" of snow where they occur, along
with a sudden visibility drop and quick degradation of road
conditions. the snow squall potential appears as though it will
maximize southeast of a sandusky to findlay line, though can not
be ruled out (at least on a more isolated basis) across the
toledo area. the combination of some modest fluxes off the icy
lake and upslope will likely lead to the frontal burst/squall
being more prolonged/intense southeast of lake erie, where it
may drop a quick 2-3" across parts of northeast oh/northwest pa.
some (limited) lake effect will continue late this evening
through early saturday behind the front, though the airmass does
quickly dry starting around 3z/10 pm tonight as inversion
heights also lower, which does not bode well for significant
lake effect off of 96% frozen lake erie. still, could see
localized accumulations of another inch or two overnight tonight
into saturday, particularly if a band with a connection to lake
huron can develop across far northeast oh amid the north-
northwest flow as several models are hinting at.

along with the round of fresh snow accumulations along and just
behind the arctic front this evening, gusty winds and blowing
snow will become a concern. low-level lapse rates will steepen
behind the front as very strong cold air advection commences,
with a tight pressure gradient and quick pressure rises also
arguing for strong/gusty winds. 925mb winds increasing to
30-40kt for several hours along and behind the front suggests
surface gusts in a similar 30-40kt (roughly 35-45 mph) range
given the favorable conditions for momentum transfer to the
surface. a few advisory-level (40kt/46mph+) gusts are possible,
especially along the lakeshore and with any more intense snow
squalls, though believe the wind will pose more of a threat of
blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibility/locally hazardous
travel conditions more so than a wind damage threat. given
this, will emphasize the wind gusts in the winter wx advisory
and run the advisory through at least 10 pm or 1 am (from west
to east) to capture the strongest wind gusts and blowing snow
potential. blowing snow can be quite impactful across our
western forecast area, where flatter and more open terrain is
found, with somewhat more limited (but still present) impacts
elsewhere. winds and blowing snow will likely continue overnight
into saturday, but will gradually diminish with time. outside
of any lake effect that lingers in far northeast oh or northwest
pa into saturday, dry weather is expected to take over as high
pressure begins building in from the west.

the toledo area will get the least snow overall (heaviest
morning snow to the south/southwest, better squall potential to
the southeast) and will briefly warm above freezing this
afternoon. all of that leads to some question on blowing snow
impacts around toledo, leading to lucas and ottawa counties
being left out of the advisory. similarly, the east end of the
area will see less synoptic snow this morning and some of the
snow squalls/lake enhancement may begin downsloping and
weakening coming while into the youngstown area this evening.
because both ends of the event are relatively lighter in the
youngstown area, did leave mahoning and trumbull out of the
advisory in collaboration with wfo pittsburgh. will monitor
observed snow amounts and forecast trends through this afternoon
in both areas, and would like to emphasize that the entire area
will see at least some travel impacts this evening regardless.


.key message 3...
no changes have been made to the cold weather headlines, which
are in effect from 1 am to noon saturday across the entire area.
wind chills quickly fall below 0 between 9 pm and midnight,
bottoming out early saturday at -25 to -30f in northwest pa and
closer to -15 to -25f across ohio, "mildest" to the west.
ambient low temperatures will range from roughly -5 to +5f,
coldest in northwest pa (where a few spots may get as cold as
10f below in the higher terrain) and "least cold" in nw ohio.

high temperatures on saturday will range from the single digits
in northwest pa (and the higher terrain of northeast oh) to the
low-mid 10s across the rest of ohio. wind chills will briefly
warm above advisory criteria of -15f, though may struggle to
warm above -10f in the higher terrain of pa at "peak heating".
high pressure will be more optimally overhead saturday night,
supporting more ideal radiational cooling conditions. clouds
will increase from the west overnight, with forecast lows
ranging from a few degrees above 0 along the i-75 corridor to 0
to -10f from north central oh points east. a few typical colder
spots may drop to -10 to -20f if we stay clear/calm across
northeast oh/northwest pa. winds will be quite light saturday
night, though given the cold ambient temperatures we can not
rule out potential need for additional cold wx advisories,
mainly across the eastern half or so of the area.


.key message 4...
as a shortwave dives from the upper midwest into the ohio valley
late saturday night into sunday morning, a band of light snow
will try to push into western portions of the area. this is not
looking like a significant snow by any stretch, but a light
accumulation can not be ruled out. the current forecast closely
followed the nbm and is mainly dry, though if recent model
trends hold we will need to add snow the forecast across western
portions of the area late saturday night/sunday morning. another
shortwave dives through the eastern great lakes on monday. while
the bulk of the forcing will stay to our northeast, we will need
to monitor our far northeastern counties for light snow
potential if the shortwave tracks a bit farther west/southwest.
outside of these two rather minor snow chances, dry weather is
expected to continue through most of the day tuesday.

it will still be cold sunday and sunday night, with highs
ranging from the mid 10s to mid 20s and lows in the single
digits to 10s. highs will warm into the 20s to lower 30s on
monday, and well into the 30s to lower 40s for tuesday as
overnight lows also gradually moderate.


.key message 5...
while guidance disagrees quite a bit on details, weak low
pressure and a cold front are expected to move through the
region tuesday night into wednesday. generally light amounts of
precipitation are expected, starting as mainly rain or perhaps a
mix tuesday night into wednesday before ending as a bit of snow
late wednesday or wednesday night as colder air returns.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
snow and even light freezing drizzle is overspreading the region
this early morning, with most terminals reporting precipitation
at this point. expecting the freezing drizzle to come to an end
and become just snow in the next couple of hours. ifr ceilings
and fluctuating visibilities in light snow can be expected into
the afternoon hours today ahead of a strong cold front that will
move through the region. there could be a lull in the snow for a
few hours prior to the cold frontal passage. this cold front
passage may produce snow squalls, and have this represented with
a tempo group centered near the 00z saturday time frame. in the
wake of the cold front, expecting winds to increase sharply out
of the northwest with gusts 30-40kts. blowing snow should be
expected as well during this portion of the forecast, aiding in
the reduction of visibilities along with any post frontal
lingering snow showers. amds should be expected today with
fluctuating conditions.

outlook...non-vfr with lake effect snow and clouds could
linger into saturday morning. light snow is possible on sunday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains ice-covered. a strong arctic cold front tonight
brings gales to the central and western basins tonight out of the
northwest with gusts to 40kts where shifting ice becomes possible.
northwest winds east to 10-15kts saturday, and then become light and
variable through late sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 1 am to noon est saturday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
ohz006-008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for ohz009>014-
019>022-029>032-038-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for paz001>003.
extreme cold warning from 1 am to noon est saturday for
paz001>003.
marine...gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est saturday for
lez142>148-162>168.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 061107
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
607 am est fri feb 6 2026

.key messages...
- 1-3" of snow is expected for the entire area this morning,
followed by a period of gusty winds and cold temperatures late
today into tonight. wind chill values around -10 are expected
in nw ohio by saturday morning.

- 1-3" of lake effect snow is expected along and west of us-31
tonight into saturday.

- warmer temperatures are expected next week with a period of
light rain possible late tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 am est fri feb 6 2026

second shortwave on the cyclonic side of 150kt upper level jet now
racing into the area. healthy llj/theta-e surge noted with this wave
as well as good low/midlevel fgen in a region of reduced stability
aloft. all of this is leading to bands of moderate (briefly heavy)
snow upstream that will move through the area during the morning
hours. as has been discussed, the saving grace here is that the
window of forcing is very brief, only about 3-5 hours for any one
location. snowfall rates may reach 1"/hr during that time but those
heavier rates should remain more isolated and brief. increased snow
amounts some to account for this but still only getting 1-3" given
lower than normal snow ratios (10-12:1). winds will be relatively
light during the period of heaviest snow and temps will actually be
just below freezing. have therefore decided against a winter weather
advisory and will instead continue to handle with sps`s. this snow
will end everywhere by 16z. caa and gusty winds do ramp up later
this afternoon. a few snow showers are possible as this occurs but
amounts will be very light. similarly, some drifting snow is
possible in open/rural areas similar to last evening but degree of
warm air during the day/low snow ratios may limit the degree of
blowing/drifting. here again expect impacts low enough to handle
with sps`s as needed.

of slightly greater concern is the potential for les in our w/nw
counties tonight into sat. a favorable nnw fetch will develop
(though some backing over the u.p. limits lake superior connection)
with hints of a single, dominant band trying to develop. instability
parameters aren`t great but aren`t terrible either with inversion
heights around 5 kft and at least a brief period of near-zero theta-
e lapse rates. enough confidence in at least measurable snow over
berrien, la porte, western st. joseph (in) to significantly increase
pop`s overnight and well into sat with the heaviest rates expected
around 06z tonight. total amounts are much less certain though. will
hold with 1-3" for now but further refinements are quite possible.

the other minor issue will be wind chills around -10f in our eastern
zones away from the lake clouds late tonight. this is short of
advisory criteria for us with limited impacts anticipated anyway
given several recent cold spells and saturday timing. no headlines
needed.

active northwest flow pattern continues over the weekend with one
more shortwave diving through the area early sun. this wave is
notably weaker and drier but should still squeeze out another
dusting of snow with the best chances currently along/north of us-
30. pattern finally shifts a bit by next week as persistent longwave
ridge over the western conus folds eastward. this results in
pronounced waa aloft but of course surface temps will be heavily
modulated by cold, deep snowpack over most of the area. a run at low
40s is possible by tue/wed. this will also correspond to our next
chance for precip. still some concern for freezing rain given very
cold surface temps but degree of waa aloft is impressive and will
likely support just rain tue night/wed transitioning back to light
snow in caa wed night/thu. still a lot of details to hammer out in
this timeframe though.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 601 am est fri feb 6 2026

snow is indeed coming down hard and fast as a potent clipper
system breezes through. lifr conditions have been recorded at
ksbn and visibility of less then 1/2 mile was noted here at
iwx. radar returns suggest ksbn will gradually improve over the
next hour as the final band(s) of snow move through. heavy snow
bands will be arriving to kfwa this hour.

behind the snow, wind veers and increases with gusts approaching
30 kts. increasing confidence in a single band of lake effect
snow developing on either side of 00z this evening. ensemble
guidance provides reasonable confidence for a period of mvfr to
ifr snow snow at ksbn. because this band will be from northerly
flow, high confidence in kfwa becoming vfr late in this taf
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
535 am est fri feb 6 2026

.key messages...

- areas of light freezing drizzle this early this morning
transitions to light snow for the remainder of the morning. total
accumulations of around an inch for most areas though amounts
towards two inches possible south of i-96.

- a few snow squalls are possible between noon and 5pm with the
passage of an arctic cold front. northwest winds ramp up and gust 30-
40 mph with the front through early tonight. temperatures reaching
the lower to mid 30s early this afternoon will plummet through the
evening and night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 f range by early
saturday morning.

- a cold weather advisory is in effect for all of southeastern
michigan late this evening through saturday morning as wind chills
fall to 15 to 20 degrees below zero.

- above normal temperatures are possible tuesday and wednesday of
next week.

&&

.aviation...

after some intervals of light freezing drizzle/mist, moisture depth
is increasing which is allowing a change back over to snow. this
moisture increase and region of light snow is associated with a short
wave impulse moving across the region this morning. ample low level
moisture will support ifr and lifr conditions this morning, a
combination of falling snow and fog. subtle low level drying forecast
early this afternoon will trend conditions toward mvfr. an arctic
cold front is forecast to move across se mi this afternoon, between
18z and 21z. brief higher intensity snow showers are possibly ahead
of this front. the onset of cold air within strengthening northwest
winds will support frequent gusts over 30 knots at the terminals late
this afternoon into the evening.

for dtw...the transition from freezing drizzle/mist to snow will
occur prior to the start of the taf period as deeper moisture is now
advancing toward the airport. light snow will then prevail through
the morning with around an inch accumulation possible. northwest
wind speeds will steadily increase between 20z and 23z in the wake
of an arctic cold front.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today. low tonight.

* moderate for crosswind thresholds to be exceeded this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 am est fri feb 6 2026

discussion...

continuing weak vorticity advection within broader mid-upper
troughing across the great lakes has provided just enough lift to
capitalize on lingering low level saturation below the dgz to
support scattered freezing drizzle/mist overnight into early this
morning. the primary shortwave coming out of the upper midwest
drives southeast across the southern lake michigan basin into the
ohio valley between roughly 10-16z this morning. models are still
holding firm in this track to our southwest keeping the bulk of
heavier snow likewise to our west and south during the morning
commute timeframe. that said, se mi will reside under the broader
albeit weaker isentropic ascent as the trough axis pivots overhead
supporting widespread light snow over most the area. given the track
of the wave, areas south of i-96 stand the best shot at seeing some
pockets of more moderate snowfall rates (around 0.25"/hr). overall,
most areas stand likely to pick up around an inch of snowfall by the
end of the morning. locales south of i-96, particularly towards
lenawee county, could see up to 1.5-2" dependent on the arrival of
quarter inch rates. switching over to temperatures, modest warm
advection in southwest flow this morning allows temps to make a run
for lower to mid 30s by midday marking the first time since mid
january with highs above 30.

increasing subsidence in the wake of the shortwave over southern oh
by this point offers a break in snow early this afternoon before the
arrival of the trailing arctic front between roughly 17-22z.
forecast soundings generate weak instability along the shallow
frontal circulation supportive of at least scattered snow showers
with fropa. high-res model solutions however diverge on overall
coverage ranging from a somewhat broken line (hrrr) to widely
scattered (arw)- owing to shallow saturation depths only up to
~4kft, which are marginally saturated at that. for now, will hold
with chance pops (30-40%) and accumulations from a dusting to couple
tenths. despite the shallow convective depths, weak instability
combined with a healthy column wind field of 35-50kts in the lowest
5kft do support some potential for an isolated snow squall or two
with modeled snow squall parameters around to just over 1. if any
squall does manage to develop, it would be capable of a quick half
inch or so of new snow (lack of residence time as the front quickly
crosses limits higher accumulation chances).

strong cold air advection follows the arctic front as mixing of
lower level column winds will be capable of generating gusts on the
order of 30-40mph late afternoon-evening into the first half of
tonight. temperatures plummet behind the front from 30s early this
afternoon to single digits by late evening-early tonight. coldest
air settles over the thumb, due to the core of the arctic airmass
sinking over eastern ontario, with negative single digit lows
forecast. rest of se mi sees lows at 0 to low positive single
digits. while winds weaken from the peak this evening, sustained 10-
15mph northwest winds with peak gusts up to 25mph result in wind
chills ranging from -10 to -20, coldest in the thumb. as such, all
of se mi is under a cold weather advisory from late evening through
saturday morning.

upper troughing begins to slide out over the eastern seaboard by
late sunday with weakening central conus ridging attempting to build
in its place first half of next work week. this is expected to lead
to a steady moderation in temperatures through midweek back to near
normal for early february including a shot at above average highs by
tuesday.

marine...

a gale warning and heavy freezing spray warning are in effect this
afternoon through early saturday morning. the gale warning has been
expanded to include all of lake huron and outer saginaw bay as
strong cold advection leads to northwest gale force gusts beginning
this afternoon. both ice cover and post-frontal subsidence still
work to reduce mixing depths quickly in these areas, but given the
magnitude of the cold advection and low level jet, thinking gales
may linger past the 3 hour duration mark. general sentiment of the
warning stays the same, with gusts peaking this afternoon and
evening around 35 to 40 knots. for ice-free portions of the lake,
sustained northwest winds of 30 to 35 knots and the arctic inbound
airmass lead to heavy freezing spray. on top of this, periods of
snow are likely throughout the day as the governing hudson bay low
sends several disturbances across the great lakes. a much drier
airmass floods into the region early saturday morning, paired with
building surface pressure to support quieter conditions for the
weekend. that said, snow chances return sunday as a clipper system
glances across the great lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to noon est saturday
for miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

cold weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon est saturday
for miz075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361.

gale warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est saturday for
lhz362-363-421-441>443-462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
saturday for lhz362-363-462.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kdk
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.