Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
637
fxus61 kcle 071807
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
207 pm edt tue jul 7 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the eastern half of the area into this evening. no
significant impacts are expected.

2) the next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late
thursday into friday as a cold front moves across the region. heavy
rain is possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest satellite and surface observations reveal a weak
surface trough lingering across the eastern half of the area
this afternoon. although some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible into this evening, especially near
the oh/pa border, the overall intensity and coverage of the
precipitation will be limited compared to the previous couple of
days, given a lack of forcing and increased mid-level dry air.
thus, not anticipating any significant impacts with the rain,
other than a few brief heavy downpours. the weak surface trough
appears to linger into wednesday, albeit a bit further east,
limiting rain chances to mainly nw pa or along the oh/pa border
in the afternoon.

as was the case over the past several nights, weak flow and a moist
ground will result in patchy to areas of fog tonight into wednesday
morning, particularly inland across north-central and northeast
ohio.

key message 2...
attention then turns towards the next low pressure
system and cold front thursday into friday. showers and
thunderstorms will be approaching from the north along and ahead of
the cold front thursday night, but also from the west friday morning
as a shortwave tracks east along the front into the lower great
lakes/upper ohio valley region. will continue to monitor timing and
location trends for this shortwave. though we can`t rule out a
stronger storm or two with this system, heavy rain and isolated
flooding still appears to be the primary concern with pwats
approaching or exceeding 1.80 inches.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
sct-bkn mvfr ceilings remain in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania with a few light showers in the vicinity of yng
through 20z. otherwise, daytime heating will help to scatter
clouds out through the afternoon with clearing expected this
evening. there are a few models that indicate cloud cover
holding on this evening but favor clearing skies and light to
calm winds which will allow for some areas of fog to develop
overnight. highest confidence in fog is at yng/mfd/cak with low
ifr conditions possible between 08-12z. elsewhere, mvfr
visibilities are more likely with brief ifr possible.
improvement is expected after 13z but could take a few hours for
skies to scatter out in northeast ohio. winds will be 10 knots
or less out of the north today, light and variable overnight,
and west/northwest wind returning after 16z wednesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms thursday
afternoon through saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
generally good marine conditions expected through the week with
winds of 15 knots or less. high pressure over the central great
lakes will result in a land/lake breeze tonight/wednesday.
southwesterly winds expected thursday ahead of a front approaching
from the north. the front will be slow to pass with winds eventually
shifting out of the north/northeast by friday night. next potential
for showers and thunderstorms that could impact marine conditions is
during the thursday - friday time frame.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
962
fxus63 kiwx 072309
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
709 pm edt tue jul 7 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures are expected through the remainder of
the week. temperatures and humidity levels may creep upward
late this weekend into early next week.

- dry conditions are expected through early thursday. chances
of showers and storms will increase later thursday into
friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 134 pm edt tue jul 7 2026

no significant changes were made to the inherited forecast for this
cycle. quiet conditions prevail today courtesy of broad subsidence
associated w/ the building upper-level ridge. weak flow aloft will
persist through mid-week as the bulk of the mid & upper level jet
energy remains well to the north. chances for precipitation should
increase by later thursday as the ridge flattens in response to a
low-amplitude short wave traversing the flow across the lower great
lakes. increasing flow aloft should contribute to shear profiles
supportive of organized convection, though it is difficult to tell
at this point whether sufficient instability will exist for a more
substantial forward-propgating severe mcs or more of a heavy rain
threat with expected pwats approaching or exceeding 2 inches. still,
high confidence exists in a large portion of the area receiving
measurable rainfall from thursday night through friday. /hammer

previous discussion (issued at 335 am edt tue jul 7 2026):

the very slow moving mid/upper level trough that has produced
multiple days of scattered showers and storms is now slowly pushing
across the eastern great lakes region this morning. a broad upper
vort filament extends to the southwest across central indiana,
trailing back to a closed low feature across northeast arkansas.
mid/upper level ridging will begin to build back into the southern
great lakes region in the wake of this broad negative upper height
anomaly with an associated broad low level anticyclone building in
from the northwest through wednesday. the progression of this wave
pattern and northerly low level flow east of the ridge axis will
allow for a drier airmass across central/northern lower mi (~0.60
pwats in 00z apx raob) to advect southward across the local area.
this drier airmass combined with broad synoptic scale subsidence
will provide pleasant conditions today. highs should be 2 to 5
degrees warmer than yesterday based mostly on increased insolation.

light/calm winds and mainly clear skies are expected tonight as
anticyclone builds east. may need to watch for some patchy fog
potential across far ne in/nw oh early wednesday on eastern
periphery of the high building eastward. some high clouds may also
clip southern/southeast portion of the forecast area in association
with eastward migration of the lower ms valley cut-off low which
could also help limit fog formation.

wednesday should largely feature similar conditions to that of
tuesday with perhaps another degree or two of warming with
modification of low level airmass in subsidence regime. dew points
will remain in check in low-mid 60s however.

for wednesday night into thursday, an upper level short wave
currently lifting across id/western mt will help deamplify western
conus upper ridge and this short wave is expected to dampen across
the northern great lakes wed pm. dry conditions will persist through
wednesday night as better low level moisture transport remains
confined to the plains into the upper ms valley. best moisture
convergence across the central plains could give rise to another
convectively enhanced vort max shifting eastward into il/in thursday
afternoon into friday. at the same time, guidance is in general
agreement that upstream western conus ridge will start to amplify
again which raises some question as to how far north and east pocket
of better instability can reach during this period from the mid ms
valley. this low amplitude flattened flow pattern will provide some
better westerly shear by the late wed/thu period, but instability
magnitudes is an item of lower confidence with possibility that
effective low level boundary and reservoir of better instability
could be confined west and southwest of the local area. more veered
westerly deep layer flow by thursday could yield some weak
propagation vectors, and with high pwat airmass in place by this
time, cannot rule out some decent rainfall amounts late
thursday/friday. however, some possibility exists that areas
west/southwest of the local area may be most favored for heavier
rainfall.

some low pops were maintained into saturday given uncertainty in
evolution of any convective enhancement to short waves, although by
this time, bulk of guidance suggests drying trend as effective
frontal boundary may slip south of the area. medium range guidance
continues to suggest more pronounced amplification of the central
conus ridge by late weekend into early next week that should support
a warming trend toward the end of the period with some increase in
humidity. it is possible some upward adjustments may be needed to
temps by next monday with deterministic/ensemble guidance starting
to come into a little better agreement by next monday regarding this
scenario. after monday, confidence begins to wane as ensemble
spreads become more dramatic in the handling of the extent of
strength of waves topping this ridge affecting the longitudinal
placement of the ridge axis by the middle of next week. mainly dry
conditions have been maintained for the weekend into monday when
guidance exhibits this stronger agreement in ridge placement. /marsili

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 702 pm edt tue jul 7 2026

vfr conditions through most of the period especially for ksbn.
some mvfr vsbys in mist/patchy fog possible from 08z through 12z
wed for kfwa with clear skies, light winds, and expectations of
only one to two degree dew point depressions overnight tonight.
light southwesterly winds around 5 to 7 kts through this taf
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight cdt
wednesday night for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...air quality alert from midnight tonight to midnight edt
wednesday night for miz078-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer/marsili
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
913
fxus63 kdtx 071917
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
317 pm edt tue jul 7 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warm tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees.

- showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop thursday afternoon
and thursday night. high humidity will bring a threat for locally
heavy rainfall with any storm.

- seasonable temperatures and dry conditions return this weekend.

- a heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+
degrees).

&&

.discussion...

surface ridge and drier air held strong over lower michigan most of
the day, but the eastern half of the cwa finally saw some sct-bkn cu
development this afternoon as surface dew pts pushed into the 60s.
very dry mid levels (12z dtx 700 mb dew pt depression checked in at
36 c) will preclude any shower/thunderstorm activity.

upper level energy/jet forcing tracking through the great basin,
northeast through the northern rockies and into northern ontario
tonight. multiple shortwaves are present, but the main 850-700 mb
theta-e ridge and moisture axis (pw values 1.75-2 inches) will
remain around the straights through the day on wednesday. the last
vestiges of 850-700 mb theta-e trough will hold over southeast
michigan to provide another dry and warm day as temps push into the
upper 80s.

the cold front/moisture axis will sag south wednesday evening into
thursday, providing the focus for showers and thunderstorms. a
stronger shortwave tracking through iowa will likely slow the
southward progression of the cold front over southern lower
michigan, which could allow for repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms thursday and thursday night- even potentially into
friday if the stronger canadian model is to believed. as usual, the
12z nam most aggressive with instability building during thursday,
with mlcapes reaching 2000+ j/kg, along with just enough 0-6 bulk
shear of 30-35 knots to draw concern for severe storms. however,
other models are more subdued. with weak mid level lapse rates and
weaker wind fields, we would expect mostly strong, sub-severe
thunderstorms, though isolated, precip loaded marginal severe
downbursts are possible given the higher dcape values indicated.
with good moisture (pw values around 1.75"/700 mb dew pts in excess
of 2 c), heavy rain and localized flooding are a concern with
repeated rounds of storms. but right now, no clear signal indicated,
as euro ensembles struggle to even support qpf aoa 0.5" in a 24 hour
period.

a building upper level ridge over the northern plains during the
weekend will be the main weather story, with this heat dome pushing
into the upper mississippi river valley/western great lakes early
next week. another heat wave is possible next week for southeast
michigan, but the exact strength and location of ridge center will
have to be worked out, as we could end up on the outer fringe and be
susceptible to the ridge riders diving southeast from central
canada.

&&

.marine...

high pressure continues to sit atop the great lakes today into
wednesday, allowing light winds and dry conditions to persist. a
front will bring rain and the possibility for a thunderstorm
thursday into friday. this will also provide the best chance for
slightly breezy conditions with gusts around 20 knots. as this front
moves out of our region friday, we see another high pressure
entering the region into the weekend, providing calmer and drier
conditions.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt tue jul 7 2026

aviation...

an elongated area of high pressure extends from mo into northern
lower mi this afternoon. light north to northeast wind prevails
across the local area with the detroit taf sites forecast to briefly
flip to southeast as the lake breeze moves in later this afternoon.
coverage of diurnal cumulus will remain highest across the east
where moisture is enhanced by the marine layer, with any broken
ceilings predominantly vfr going forward. the cu field dissipates
this evening with winds going light and variable as the high
pressure settles overhead. the remnant enhanced moisture axis sets
up the eastern and southern forecast area for potential development
of ground fog early wednesday morning, with forecast data supportive
of several hours of mvfr to ifr visibility before daytime mixing
ensues shortly after daybreak. light southwest wind and prevailing
vfr are expected wednesday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast today or
tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......to/am
aviation.....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.