Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
137 am edt sun aug 2 2026

.what has changed...
the rainfall forecast has trended higher for portions of ne oh/nw pa
sunday. however, confidence in the location of the heaviest
rainfall and the resulting greatest flooding risk is still
relatively low at this point.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of rain with some thunderstorms are expected
through sunday. heavy rainfall will be possible at times with
some flash flooding potential on sunday. isolated strong to
severe storms are also possible sunday afternoon into sunday
evening.

2) periodic scattered rain chances and near normal temperatures
are expected next week.

&&

.discussion...
update...
convection ahead of the approaching surface low has organized
into a qlcs across southwest oh this evening, where several
severe weather warnings have been issued. this activity appears
to have peaked in intensity, and will be moving into a gradually
more stable low-level airmass as it lifts towards northwest and
north central ohio through the late evening hours. we`ll monitor
the progress of these storms as they lift towards the findlay,
marion, and mt vernon corridor, but in general believe the
latest severe weather outlook from the spc, which keeps
probabilities just to our south/southwest, still holds tonight.

most guidance remains in agreement that zone of low-level
convergence and deformation to the north of the approaching
surface low will lift into the vicinity of northeast in,
northwest oh, and far southeast mi late tonight and pivot in
that general area through at least sunday morning, focusing
showers with some embedded convection possible. the environment
will be quite favorable for efficient rain rates in this area
overnight tonight into sunday morning. the last several hrrr
runs have caught onto this feature and suggest a narrow band of
1-3" of rain is likely where this feature pivots, with locally
higher amounts of potentially upwards of 5" possible with any
more intense/stationary convection. did adjust the forecast to
increase rain amounts in the toledo area through midday sunday.
can not rule out the need for a short fused flood watch for the
toledo area over the next few hours if we can gain confidence in
the placement of the heaviest rain and in locally more
excessive rain occurring, though at this exact moment confidence
is not high enough to go with one.

key message 1...
low pressure will slowly shift east across the midwest through
sunday, bringing multiple rounds of rain to the local area for
the rest of the weekend. any precipitation this afternoon into
the start of this evening will be light, although rainfall rates
will likely pick up as better moisture lifts into the area
tonight. a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but severe
weather is not anticipated tonight. by early sunday morning,
most spots across the area will see at least a quarter of an
inch of rain with locations along and west of i-75 likely
receiving up to 0.75" of rain. there are some signals for
training and locally higher amounts of 1-2" along the far
western fringe of the local area, although that higher
precipitation axis may be to the west of the cwa. will need to
keep an eye on where swaths of heavier rain occur, but in
general this initial round of rain will largely serve as a
primer for heavy rainfall on sunday.

a break in precipitation (or at least, lower coverage in shower
activity) is likely sunday morning, especially across north-
central ohio. by the afternoon, better upper level support will
move over the region, allowing additional showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move east through the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening. this will be the window for the
heaviest rainfall and likely the greatest flash flooding risk.
most of the area will receive 0.5 to 0.75" of additional
rainfall sunday afternoon/evening with some areas possibly
receiving 2 or more inches of rainfall where showers and
thunderstorms train. latest guidance suggests that the highest
rain amounts could fall across portions of ne oh/nw pa which
would result in an enhanced flash flooding risk, but will need
to see how high res models trend over the next 12-18 hours. have
opted against issuing a flood watch with this update since
confidence in the placement of the heaviest rainfall/greatest
training potential is still medium at best. would like to see
where the heaviest rain occurs tonight before making a final
decision on any headlines. on sunday, there is a slight risk
(level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall/flash flooding across the
majority of the local area.

there is still potential for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms sunday afternoon into sunday evening. jet support
will increase sunday afternoon as the low meanders eastward into
the ohio valley, resulting in increased shear. there`s still
some uncertainty with how much we destabilize given the
potential for morning showers/thunderstorms. if we manage to
clear out between rounds of rain then instability will be
higher, but any lingering showers/clouds could result in lower
instability and a lower severe weather threat. based on the
shear profile/wind field, any thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado sunday
afternoon/evening. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of
severe weather.

key message 2...
the low will finally lift northeast of the area on monday,
although persistent upper troughing will result continued
chances of rain showers through much of monday. a brief period
of dry weather is anticipated on tuesday before rain chances
increase as a shortwave lifts into the region wednesday.
scattered rain chances continue through the end of the week as
an upper trough shifts east into the area thursday/friday.
temperatures will generally be near normal with highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s anticipated.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
a mixed bag of conditions ranging from vfr to ifr is expected to
impact this taf period as a low pressure system moves east
across the ohio valley. this morning, a broad area of showers
with a history of reducing visibilities to ifr continues to push
north across the area. there are scattered thunderstorms as well
but given decreasing instability, not expecting any widespread
thunder. in addition to the precipitation causing impacts
currently, overall ceiling heights are gradually beginning to
diminish to 1-3kft by the morning hours. some terminals may see
high end ifr ceilings, however confidence is fairly low given
the spread in models compared to what is currently being
observed.

on sunday morning, there should be a notable pause in
precipitation across the area before another round moves in for
the afternoon and evening hours. ceilings will remain in the
mvfr range through the evening hours at all terminals. with
this additional round of precipitation, visibilities should drop
to mvfr but in well developed thunderstorms, expect ifr to lifr
visibilities given the very heavy rainfall potential. given
uncertainty in timing and placement of this second band, opted
to handle much of the storm chance using tempo/prob30. near the
tale end of this taf period, conditions should begin to improve
as the low pushes and showers begin to move out of the area.

winds ahead of the surface low will be from the south-southeast
at 5-10 knots with winds behind the low from the northeast at
5-12 knots. gusty winds up to 20 knots are possible behind the
low, likely impacting the far western terminals through sunset.

outlook...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
potential for non-vfr continue monday through wednesday,
primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
low pressure will move west to east south of lake erie tonight into
sunday, with winds becoming northeasterly around 10kts tonight,
increasing to 15-20kts sunday and sunday night. western and central
basin wave heights will increase to 3-5ft sunday night, decreasing
to 1-3ft as northeasterly winds persist through tuesday. winds turn
light and variable wednesday with wave heights less than a foot.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15/sullivan
aviation...04
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1236 am edt sun aug 2 2026

.key messages...

- dangerous swimming conditions are expected at lake michigan
beaches along the la porte county, in and berrien county, mi
shoreline. life-threatening waves and currents are expected.
a beach hazards statement is in effect. for details, visit
www.weather.gov/greatlakes/beachhazards

- conditions dry out from northwest to southeast later sunday
into sunday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 321 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

after an initial band of rain that swept from west to east across
the area this morning, most of the local area has remained dry
through mid afternoon due to the influence of a mid level dry slot.
vorticity advection associated with mid/upper level low across
central il is beginning to push eastward. an instability axis of
1000-1500 j/kg sbcape is continuing to nudge northward in modest
southerly flow regime downstream if this il disturbance and should
allow for continued shower and storm development across northern
indiana over the next several hours. a pocket of stronger effective
shear on the order of 30-35 knots may end up just skirting far
south/southeast portions of the forecast area across far ne in/nw oh
early this evening which is also coincident with pocket of 100-150 0-
1km srh. some isolated wind threat is possible in a brief window
late this afternoon/early evening far south/southeast, but currently
expecting greater potential of isolated-scattered severe storms to
remain across central in.

the potential of heavy rainfall will likely be the primary impact
locally. an impressive low level theta-e ridge that shifted into the
area this morning is acquiring more of a west-northwest to
east-southeast orientation in response to induced cyclonic flow
from upstream il mid/upper level low. this should create
favorable deep moisture profiles and efficient warm rain
processes tonight into early sunday. showers and embedded
storms should fill in across northern in through early evening
especially along and south of us 24, with an eventual pivot in
orientation of most favored rain shower axis to sw-ne oriented
from west central in to as possibly as far east as nw ohio late
evening/early overnight as deformation forcing begins to sharpen
up. this setup should provide favorable low level moisture
convergence for a relatively extended duration tonight into
early sunday morning.

earlier today, some highly efficient rainfall accumulation was noted
across nw indiana with the leading band of showers, with some
locations picking up a quick 1 to 2 inches. earlier today, did go
ahead and issue a flood watch for potential of flash flooding/areal
flooding for all of in counties from 21z this afternoon to 21z
friday, although greatest potential of heavy rain is roughly
from early this evening through mid morning sunday. given the
above evolution, the far north/northwest portions of the flood
watch may be at a bit lower confidence level for flooding rains
given increasing signals that the favored deformation forcing
axis may reside from southwest portions of the forecast area
through far ne in. did exclude nw oh counties as part of the
initial flood watch issuance, but an eastward extension of the
watch may be needed at some point. one mitigating factor to
flood potential tonight could be relatively dry antecedent
conditions, but if higher rainfall rates are able to anchor in
deformation region tonight, this will still likely lead to some
flooding issues for a portion of the area.

strength of deformation should tend to weaken sunday
afternoon/evening as responsible mid/upper level trough begins to
become attenuated and more sheared. conditions should dry out from
ne to se later sunday afternoon into sunday evening with a quieter
weather pattern through tuesday as a longwave mid/upper level ridge
shifts across ontario and the western great lakes. an active series
of pacific waves across south central canada/dakotas will dampen
this ridge middle of the week with local area possibly in a favored
theta-e gradient region for periodic waves in west-northwest upper
flow for additional shower/storm chances through much of the long
term period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1235 am edt sun aug 2 2026

better low level moisture continues to slowly pivot northward as
potent mid/upper level low begins to open up and drift further
east. still expect a period of ifr ceilings at kfwa, but the
risk of thunderstorms continues to drop. at ksbn, expect just
some transient mvfr ceilings with potential for vfr to hold
through much of the morning. both terminals will see a return to
vfr by sunday afternoon (earliest at ksbn) with tranquil weather
to end the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through this afternoon for inz007>009-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034.
beach hazards statement through monday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through monday morning for miz277.
beach hazards statement from this afternoon through monday
morning for miz177.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1158 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

.key messages...

- intervals of showers will persist overnight and early sunday.
potential exists for heavy rainfall to develop at times.

- dry weather returns on monday, but it may become unsettled again for
parts of next week with chances of showers. temperatures will be
close to average for early august.

&&

.aviation...

an area of deeper low level moisture lifting north of low pressure
tracking through the ohio valley will track into the region
throughout the early-mid morning period. this will increase the
probability for showers to increase coverage and intensity,
particularly across the detroit airspace up through ptk. this will
occur as cloud base declines from lower vfr into mvfr with time
through the morning hours. a brief period of ifr also plausible. a
lower probability remains for embedded thunderstorms to develop
anytime sunday morning across this corridor, but confidence in
occurrence remains quite low. gradual drying from northwest to
southeast will work to lift lingering mvfr back into vfr as showers
slowly exit to the east sunday. prevailing northeast through the
period, turning modest gusting sunday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance of thunderstorms
late tonight and sunday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium to high for ceiling 5000 ft or less overnight and sunday.

* low for thunderstorms sunday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 319 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

discussion...

a west-east axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms has begun to
develop this afternoon along an broad axis of surface convergence as
deeper moisture lifts north. this area is currently along/near the m-
59 corridor and expected to slowly lift north towards the i-69
corridor through this evening. this mornings raob from dtx showed
pwats above the 90th percentile for this time of year and a narrow
pocket of elevated instability between 1-6km. latest rap analysis
also shows this area generally uncapped, thus this pocket of
instability is likely now surface based. while instability is not
all too impressive, the warm, moist environment remains favorable
for higher rainfall rates with any thunderstorm activity. rainfall
this afternoon and into tonight will be highly variable and
dependent on where slow moving thunderstorm activity tracks.

afternoon surface and satellite analysis show both the surface and
upper-level low across central illinois. with the low already having
occluded across the midwest and the upper-level wave becoming
cutoff, it will be very slow to move east over the next 24-36 hours.
another wave of energy is progged to dig south across the region
tonight and through sunday, helping move the system along to the
east. with these two waves of energy approaching the area through
sunday, there remain uncertainties in how the potential for heavy
rain and training convection evolve. there will be multiple rounds of
large-scale ascent that move through the region, which will favor a
few windows of convection that look to remain loosely organized.
thus, it remains very difficult to pinpoint where any axis of
training convection could set up and bring possible urban flooding
concerns, so have opted to hold off on a flood watch. expect at least
0.5-1 inch of rain late tonight through sunday. locally higher
totals if we get into a training scenario with embedded
thunderstorms.

early next week, high pressure moves in behind the departing system
and we should have a few drier days with seasonable temperatures in
the lower 80s. with warm air advection moving back into the region
ahead of another system tracking east across the upper great lakes
and central canada, we should see a gradual warming trend through
mid to late week.

marine...

northeast flow picks up across the central great lakes tonight and
especially sunday afternoon as a low pressure system over the lower
ohio valley lifts northeastward. strongest flow will channel across
saginaw bay leading to small craft advisory conditions. similar
concerns for the rest of the lake huron nearshore, but will
reconsider an extension with the evening update. chances for rain
and thunderstorms continue through the remainder of the weekend as
the low and its associated frontal features approach. isolated
storms could produce locally strong winds and elevated waves today
through sunday. high pressure influence becomes entrenched across
the region monday offering drier weather and weaker winds, with
headline-free conditions.

hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are
forecast this afternoon into sunday. heavy rainfall rates are still
possible, especially with any thunderstorm activity. localized
rainfall totals may exceed 2 inch where persistent training
convective activity develops. this may lead to isolated flooding
concerns this weekend, particularly in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 am to 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from noon sunday to 4 am edt monday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...ja
marine.......kgk
hydrology....ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.