Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
524
fxus61 kcle 191116
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
716 am edt mon oct 19 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a remarkably stagnant and tranquil weather pattern is in store
for the foreseeable future. through the work week the local
area will be sandwiched between ridging aloft over the central
u.s. and troughing over the northeast. this will support general
surface high pressure, dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
ridging aloft is expected to shift east this weekend, keeping
us dry but likely allowing temperatures to trend a bit warmer.
highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s will be the
general theme. frost headlines are unchanged early this morning
where the growing season is still active. given a dry airmass
with generally favorable radiational cooling conditions some
additional frost is likely at times in coming nights, including
tonight, particularly across southern/eastern portions of our
area that typically see the strongest radiational cooling.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with vfr to persist
through the taf period. for the most part, winds will be light
and variable through the taf period. a weak lake breeze this
afternoon may briefly impact cle/eri with northerly winds around
5 knots.

outlook...outside of patchy overnight fog, mainly vfr expected
through friday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 5-15kt early this morning become light and
variable this afternoon. winds shift northeast tonight and
increase to 10-15kt tuesday into tuesday night, with potential
to briefly exceed 15kt late tuesday/early tuesday night. the
northeast winds will stir up 2 to 3 foot waves tuesday into
tuesday night, with lower potential for a brief window of 4
footers focused on the central basin if winds trend slightly
stronger. winds generally remain north to northeast through the
end of the week but should diminish enough wednesday and
thursday for waves to subside to under 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz003-006-008-
010-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
293
fxus63 kiwx 190927
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
527 am edt mon oct 19 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather persists through the entire week with
highs either side of 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain in
sight.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 304 am edt mon oct 19 2026

dew points were in the 20s and 30s this past weekend, but will be
rising through the 40s today through wednesday. this is as
southwesterly flow sunday and today promote moistening. veering
winds to easterly occurs tuesday as a backdoor cold front approaches
and washes out. as long as east winds continue tuesday night/wed am
and remain light, fog could occur as marine air is advected
westward. a cold front approaches from the northwest wednesday and
may disrupt fog formation if clouds get to those areas early enough.
this study of moisture content also begs the question about fire
weather potential. well, winds are expected to remain light enough
to remove fire weather concern and limit that to grass fires at
best. given this mention of dry weather, rain chances will continue
to be limited to less than wetting through most of sunday. a cold
front approaching late next weekend to early the following week (7-8
days away) would be the next chance to see rain, but it`s a small
chance.

after starting this morning with a chance for frost, attention turns
to tonight to see if we have another chance for frost. this is as
long as the growing season remains intact. given that dew points are
expected to warm, low temps will have more of a floor to prevent
cooling. additionally, a cold front brings high clouds to the area
monday night limiting radiational cooling. given these factors, have
passed on issuing anything for frost monday night. lows stay more in
the 40s for tuesday night and beyond, meaning our next frost chance
won`t be for a while now.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 527 am edt mon oct 19 2026

vfr with mainly clear skies and light winds through the taf
cycle and beyond.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory until 9 am edt /8 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
327
fxus63 kdtx 190845
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
445 am edt mon oct 19 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with mild afternoon highs and cool morning lows will
persist into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure to bring clear skies and light winds today, with some
periodic cirrus possible starting late tonight.

d21/dtw convection...there will be no thunderstorms through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt mon oct 19 2026

discussion...

the persistent subsidence the last couple of days has resulted in an
extremely dry airmass across se mi. the 00z kdtx sounding had an
impressively dry precipitable water value of 0.22 inches. the
resident moisture starved airmass will hold in place over se mi for
several more days within persistent low to mid level anticyclonic
flow across much of the eastern us, ensuring a dry forecast with
mainly clear skies through the end of the week into if not through
the weekend.

rising 500mb geopotential heights across the upper midwest and great
lakes region today into tuesday will strengthen the low-mid level
anticyclonic flow across the great lakes, with gradually
strengthening sfc high pressure becoming centered north of lake
huron tonight, then expanding toward southern quebec by tuesday
afternoon. an elongated ridge axis will extend through lower mi,
ensuring weaker winds in comparison to yesterday. similar thermal
profiles and afternoon mixing depths will support daytime highs
generally in the mid 60s to around 70 today through thursday. the
dry airmass and light winds will support ideal radiation cooling
potential, dropping nighttime lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s for
the next several nights. with the repositioning of sfc high pressure
to the northeast of the region, light east-northeast winds off the
lakes may drive a little higher moisture into the boundary layer, the
result of which being a chance for some shallow fog the next couple
nights.

a progressive northern stream trough forecast to track across
northern ontario and hudson bay wednesday will drive a weakening
front into the northern great lakes thursday. rapid long wave ridge
amplification forecast across the central us will effectively allow
sfc high pressure redevelopment across the great lakes, eroding any
remnant sfc frontal feature and sustaining dry conditions. further
strengthening of the surface high into eastern canada and new england
on friday will attempt to advect slightly cooler air into se mi,
justifying slightly cooler forecast highs friday before southerly
return flow trajectories drive a little warmer back into se mi for
the weekend.

marine...

the pressure gradient relaxes through this morning as high pressure
coalesces over the great lakes. this causes gusty southwest wind to
quickly diminish with wave heights subsiding through late morning.
the high pressure stalls over the region through tuesday while
shifting toward southern quebec - favoring emergence of a modest
east to northeast wind. high pressure then looks to strengthen
overhead again midweek, maintaining tranquil marine weather through
the end of week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...sc
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.