Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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218
fxus61 kcle 230713
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
313 am edt thu apr 23 2026

.what has changed...
two main systems for this forecast, and the timing and elements of
each frontal system remain on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) expecting another surge of warmer weather today and friday ahead of
the next low pressure system which will bring the next round of
showers/storms to the region.

2) modest cool down this week in the wake of the first low pressure
system, and a second low pressure system expected late monday
through tuesday.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mid and upper level ridge builds into the southern great lakes,
continuing with an temperature increases for today and friday. a
warm front will be slow to lift northeastward through the cwa today,
and have a short period of slight chance pops accordingly. weakening
low level jet and modest instability will hamper the thunderstorm
potential to a point as dewpoints linger in the low to mid 50s.
steep low level lapse rates will assist with upward motion coupled
with forcing from the low level frontogenesis. could get some wind
out of the showers and storms with and inverted v signature in the
boundary layer. should be enough overall to warrant the marginal
risk on day 2 from spc. temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees in
the wake of the cold front with area wide 60s for the saturday max
temperatures. should overall be less than an inch of rain with this
system, provided there are not any examples of training convection
occurring.

key message 2...
gradual warm up, then another low pressure system moves in from the
west for the beginning of next week. 60s sunday become 70s again
monday. southern plains region low pressure will move northeastward
into the the northern great lakes. low pressure will strengthen
along its track that will take the surface low west of the cwa.
showers and storms develop late monday and will continue through
tuesday. will have plenty of time to diagnose any severe weather
threat as the forecast time gets closer, but for now, this looks
like it will be a more organized system than the one expected the
end of this week. temperatures fall off again by 10-15 degrees for
the middle of next week in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
conditions are starting at vfr early this morning with just some
3500 to 6000 ft clouds across the region. there is some growth
in the cloud field in northwest ohio and am concerned that this
will limit the fog and low stratus potential in this region
after the showers and storms on wednesday evening. therefore,
have backed off a bit on ifr chances overnight and have just
some short windows at kfdy and kmfd and have narrowed the mvfr
windows elsewhere. conditions should be vfr for thursday with
light southerly flow across the region. a lake breeze should
develop and impact keri and kcle. there are hints of isolated
showers and maybe a storm in central ohio and this could get
into kmfd and/or kcak. the development of this convection is
very conditional and is too low confidence at this time to
include in a taf.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
possible friday afternoon through saturday morning and on
monday.

&&

.marine...
an uneventful marine forecast continues into the weekend and
into early next week with no marine headlines expected at this
time. for today, a warm front will enter the region and will
enter over the lake tonight. the front will struggle to advance
north and will likely not fully cross the lake. therefore, will
have winds of light, mostly east to northeast flow through
friday. a low pressure system will move southeast through the
great lakes region on friday and cross the lake on friday night.
winds will shift to the west and northwest with 10-15 kts of
onshore flow. behind this system, northerly flow will persist
into saturday and sunday with high pressure building from the
northwest. a large low pressure system will develop over the
central portion of the country. this system will lift a warm
front into the area on monday, allowing for increasing easterly
flow on the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 230729
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
329 am edt thu apr 23 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog near and north of the michigan border will lift early
today.

- showers and scattered and thunderstorms are expected late
tonight and friday. marginally severe storms are possible friday.

- unseasonably mild today and friday with highs in the 70s to
around 80 degrees.

- dry this weekend. the remaining flooded fields will have a
relatively brief chance to dry out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 231 am edt thu apr 23 2026

a very moist atmosphere was over the area with dew points in the 50s
across the entire area. areas of radiational fog were forming over
far northern indiana into michigan were skies had cleared and where
dew points were in the 50s. the fog will mix out by late morning
favoring a strong signal according to conditional climatology.

the stage will be getting set for an active weather day friday as
strong impulses approach an environment that will be becoming
increasing more unstable with modest deep-layer shear. in
addition to the instability, precipitable water values will be
topping out between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. a narrow atmospheric
river will translate over the area friday afternoon, adding to
the potential for locally heavy rainfall in addition to the
damaging wind threat.

the potential for heavy rain will continue early next week as
a strong impulse reaches the area. wpc indicated rainfall amounts
around 1.00 inch across the entire forecast area monday into
monday night. these rainfall amounts will add to the potential
for renewed river flooding. at the present time, 6 of the area
rivers were in "action" stage and 3 of the area rivers were in
"flood" stage.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 110 am edt thu apr 23 2026

radiational fog will be the main aviation concern this morning
given recent rain and mainly clear skies/light winds. best
chances for ifr are at ksbn but guidance is mixed on how
widespread/dense fog will become this morning so will hold with
just a tempo 2sm for now. otherwise, vfr expected through the
period with next chances of rain/aviation impacts not until late
fri morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 230800
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
400 am edt thu apr 23 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry today with an isolated shower or thunderstorm chance
west of i-75/us-23.

- above normal temperatures continue today and friday with highs in
the 70s.

- an occluded front tracks across lower michigan friday and friday
night, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms. isolated
severe weather is possible.

&&

.discussion...

mostly clear skies are observed across the state this morning, with
the exception of a pocket of stratus that has developed downwind of
lake erie/st clair. remnants of the front are still evident in
surface observations, with a broad/weak surface convergence signal
from monroe to findlay that will stay in tact throughout the day.
another mostly dry forecast is in store as the ridge axis moves
overhead this afternoon. similar to yesterday, there is signal in
the hi-res suite for the convergence axis to lift back north around
peak heating. models are far less bullish in generating convection
today compared to yesterday, owing to weaker convergence and more
stability beneath the ridge. nonetheless, there is a narrow band of
uncapped instability (500-750 j/kg href mean cape) that develops
along the convergence axis that may trigger an isolated shower or
thunderstorm west of i-75/us-23. lcl-el mean wind is only around 10
knots, so any showers or storms will be slow-moving but also lack the
deep layer shear to become organized. otherwise, looking at a
pleasant spring day across se michigan with highs in the mid-70s for
interior locations and upper 60s where there is marine influence.

broader coverage shower and thunderstorm potential exists friday and
friday night as an occluded front works across the area. a robust
squall line is forecast to develop upstream across the upper midwest
later tonight, but will fall apart well before crossing the state
line. residual outflow from said convection reaches se michigan
friday morning, with theta-e advection ramping up to support
convection as early as mid-morning friday. the main convective
window however is in the afternoon-evening as the lead wave and
surface front pivot through during peak heating. forcing is
displaced far from the parent low, which remains parked over
saskatchewan. the wave appears to break before/just as it reaches se
michigan, causing the mid-level speed max to weaken substantially by
the time convection arrives. distance from the low also limits the
thermodynamic potential as the lack of a mid level cold pool and low
level jet limit instability prospects. thus, there will be a large
reliance on the boundary layer for destabilization friday which will
be further complicated by the existence of the marine layer and
potential for several rounds of convection throughout the day. low
confidence thus exists in the severe threat for friday, with the
better shot staying west of i-75/us-23. higher confidence exists in
rain potential, where the interquartile range for qpf still falls
between 0.25" to 0.75". added convective component to this rain
could bring localized totals over an inch.

thermal profiles friday still in support of temperatures in the 70s,
but once the occluded front comes through friday night daytime highs
for the weekend return to the 60s. strong isentropic downglide on
the backside of the low strips deep layer moisture out of the column
by saturday morning, bringing an end to shower activity for most of
the day. remaining low level moisture will be reinforced by
northerly flow off of lake huron, although late april diurnal cycle
should help scatter this out. rest of the weekend stays dry with
high pressure filling in aggressively latter half of saturday
through monday. the next system approaches monday night, marking the
next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms along with breezy
conditions.

&&

.marine...

the central great lakes holds under high pressure through this
evening maintaining benign marine conditions. developing low
pressure over the upper midwest eventually pushes into the great
lakes friday night-saturday supporting the next chances for wider
spread showers and thunderstorms. in advance of the low friday,
southeasterly winds strengthen with gusts around 30kts possible over
the northernmost waters of lake huron as winds funnel toward the
straits. another area of high pressure then builds in later this
weekend.

&&

.hydrology...

an occluded front tracks across the great lakes friday afternoon
through early saturday morning. basin average rainfall amounts are
expected to be between 0.25" and 0.75", although localized amounts
over an inch remain possible especially where any thunderstorms
occur. ponding of water on roadways and rises on area rivers will be
the main impacts, although cannot rule out localized minor flooding
in urban and low lying areas as well.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1041 pm edt wed apr 22 2026

aviation...

strengthening large scale subsidence and surface high pressure will
expand across se mi tonight and will dominate conditions through
thursday. aside from some daytime cu on thursday, this high will
support mainly clear skies and light winds.

for dtw/d21 convection...while the main cluster of convection has
pushed south of the d21 airspace, lingering instability and
convergence boundary will remain supportive of scattered convection
across the southern portions of the airspace through roughly 00 or
01z. there is fairly high confidence that any additional
thunderstorm development will not occur within the mile radius of
the airport.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for thunderstorm occurrence this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......kdk
hydrology....mv
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.