Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
722 pm edt fri may 8 2026

.what has changed...
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms has been introduced for
saturday afternoon and evening across much of the area.

&&

.key messages...
1) cool and rainy late this afternoon through tonight across much of
the area, with the least rain across toledo and along the
lakeshore.

2) after a drier and warmer morning and early afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms move across the area later saturday afternoon and
evening. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe
weather in the form of damaging winds and hail up to quarter-sized.

3) drier weather works in from the northwest sunday and sunday
night, with cooler, dry weather expected to start next week. some
frost is possible sunday and monday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

a warm front is currently pushing into our far southwestern counties
this afternoon and will slowly lift across the area this evening
into tonight. a flat shortwave will move through the region tonight
and early saturday morning, which will combine with the front and a
band of moisture advection to squeeze out a round of mainly
stratiform rain. already seeing some rain across interior portions of
our area this afternoon (though some low-level dry air is keeping it
quite light for now), and expect rain to gradually expand and turn
steadier through the first half of tonight. rain will then gradually
exit to the east and southeast late tonight/early saturday. there
will be a sharp cut-off to the rain this evening, with the toledo
area and even northern erie county pa quite possibly staying dry. the
heavier rain amounts will be just south of cleveland this evening,
though there are decent odds (80%) for lighter (but still
measurable) rain in cleveland this evening. the swath of better qpf
across our inland counties will produce 0.30-0.75" through tonight,
dropping off to the north. this will be another soaking rain with
minor river rises, though shouldn`t be more significant than that.
lows will generally be in the upper 40s and lower 50s tonight.

key message #2:

the forecast for saturday has trended more impactful, especially
during the later afternoon and early evening hours. we are still
looking at a window of warmer and dry weather to start, with
tonight`s rain expected to exit by early saturday. once we dry out
early saturday, rain chances don`t ramp back up until closer to 2-6
pm from northwest to southeast. highs should push to near or a bit
better than 70 in the well-mixed warm sector ahead of the approaching
cold front and showers/storms later in the afternoon. synoptically
elevated southwest breezes may gust up to 30 mph in the warm sector.

turning our attention to the more active weather, a flat shortwave
will zip across the southern great lakes saturday afternoon and
evening as low pressure tracks across the northern great lakes. this
will push a cold front into the local area. the lift associated with
the shortwave and front coinciding with peak daytime heating leads to
higher confidence in a round of showers and storms with good
coverage, particularly across lake erie and adjacent northeast oh and
northwest pa where the forcing from the shortwave will be most
favorable. storms may begin developing across southeastern michigan
around midday, with activity then expected to develop and/or spread
into the local area after 2 or 3 pm from the west-northwest.

with dew points ahead of the front struggling to push above the lower
50s, the amount of moisture and resultant instability will be
marginal for severe weather. however, strong surface heating beneath
chilly air aloft should yield steep low-level lapse rates and
500-1000 j/kg of low-topped mlcape during the afternoon. this, along
with moderate deep-layer shear as flow above 600mb increases to
50-60kt, may be enough for a few strong to severe storms. while the
strong forcing does argue for a more linear mode, shear vectors are
favorable for a more cellular mode. most hi-res models suggest an
initial mix of cells and short line segments gradually congealing
into a more linear mode. the moderate to strong flow aloft and
resultant fast storm motions, when combined with the expectation of
well-mixed low- levels, suggests strong to locally severe wind gusts
are the main severe weather risk...particularly with more organized
linear convection. with colder air aloft and sufficient deep-layer
shear, a few more robust cells may also pose a risk for marginally
severe hail. the tornado risk is not truly zero, but marginally high
lcl heights, unidirectional low-level flow, and a likely messy/mixed
storm mode should keep the tornado threat rather minimal.

overall, feel the broad spc marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather across the area in the new day 2 outlook captures the threat
well. while a small corridor of more focused severe potential could
play out with a more linear storm mode, particularly across northeast
oh and northwest pa, the marginal overall thermodynamics and some
model disagreement on where the most organized convection will occur
currently precludes anything more than the marginal risk. as
mentioned above, these showers/storms and attendant severe risk begin
spreading in as early as 2-3 pm from the west-northwest. any severe
risk should subside by about 9 pm as forcing shifts off to the east
and as the low-levels become worked over and more stable.

the front will slowly push southeast through saturday night, though
may not completely clear our area until early sunday. another weak
shortwave will bring an uptick in shower potential late saturday
night/early sunday across the area. lows saturday night will
generally range from the mid 40s to near 50.

key message #3:

drier weather should continue working in from the northwest on sunday
as high pressure approaches and the front exits. high pressure
builds overhead to start next week, keeping us dry through at least
much of tuesday. there`s decent agreement in a system of some kind
around midweek, bringing our next potential for rain.

a cooler airmass is expected to start next week, with highs likely
stuck in the 50s for most of the area on monday before a gradual warm
up starts on tuesday. overnight lows in the 30s and 40s are
expected, bringing frost concerns on any nights with more favorable
radiational cooling conditions. some frost is possible as early as
sunday night if clear/calm conditions develop quickly enough, with
perhaps better potential monday night with high pressure overhead.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
a mixed bag of flight conditions are expected early in the taf
period with patchy non-vfr conditions possible in moderate
areas of rain through this evening. guidance suggests that
ceilings will fall to mvfr/ifr (with a small chance of isolated
lifr) on the back edge of the rain late tonight and early
saturday morning with skies likely clearing by late morning or
early afternoon. there`s some potential for patchy fog primarily
at inland ne oh terminals, but generally think that most
restrictions will occur due to low stratus. a period of vfr is
expected before scattered showers and thunderstorms move
southeast into the local area towards the end of the taf period.
there`s still some uncertainty in the timing/placement of
precipitation, but currently thinking that the best chance of
rain on saturday will be 20z onwards. have prob30 groups for
storms given the timing uncertainty, but the forecast will
likely be adjusted as confidence increases in subsequent
updates. storms may produce gusty winds.

winds will generally be light and out of the south tonight with
southwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25
knots during the day saturday. winds will be slightly higher at
ktol/kfdy where sustained winds to 20 knots and gusts to 30
knots can`t be ruled out.

outlook...non-vfr expected this with scattered showers through
sunday morning. a few scattered thunderstorms are possible into
saturday night. non-vfr possible with showers and isolated
thunderstorms tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
overall marine weather and the conditions on lake erie will be
somewhat quiet this weekend into early next week. there will be
a couple weather systems moving through the great lakes over the
next several days that will bring wind shifts and some rain
chances. winds are rather light and variable this afternoon with
a weak low level flow over the lake at this time. a weak area of
low pressure will skirt south of lake erie tonight with a round
of showers and possible isolated thunder. winds will resume a
southerly flow late this afternoon into tonight 5 to 12 knots
and waves 1 to 2 feet. a cold front will approach the area late
saturday and southwesterly winds will increase 15 to 20 knots
during the day. waves will increase 1 to 3 feet mainly in the
open waters of the basin. the front will push across the lake
saturday night and a northwesterly will follow behind it 10 to
15 knots into sunday. waves will continue 1 to 2 feet on
sunday.


another secondary surface trough or cold front will move through
the eastern great lakes sunday night into early monday with a
slight reinforcing push of northerly to northwesterly winds 10
to 15 knots and waves 2 feet or less. high pressure builds in
with lighter winds monday night and early tuesday. a light
southerly flow 5 to 12 knots will return by tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
701 pm edt fri may 8 2026

.key messages...

- a series of weather disturbances will continue to support
periodic chances of showers through saturday night.

- seasonably cool temperatures persist through early next week.

- patchy to widespread frost sunday night and monday night,
especially north of us-30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 135 pm edt fri may 8 2026

no significant changes to the inherited forecast. shower chances
will persist through this evening as a series of weak short
waves traverse the flow aloft over the next 12 to 24 hours.
after a brief overnight lull, shower chances will increase again
late saturday morning through the afternoon with the passage of
a cold front. highest precipitation amounts ranging from 0.15 to
0.30 inch should remain focused mainly along and south of us-20.
seasonably cool temperatures will persist through the weekend w/
potential for frost across northern areas on sunday night and
monday night as temperatures drop into the upper 30s. /hammer

previous discussion (issued at 414 am edt fri may 8):

an anomalously cool pattern will persist as an upper low lingers
over eastern canada. 500 mb heights were around 400 meters below
normal from hudson bay into the upper great lakes. yesterday`s
temperatures were close to 10 degrees below normal. short wave
energy moving southeast in the cool pattern will generate showers
through saturday as the atmospheric environment remains saturated
or close to saturation from the surface to above 30,000 ft. another
in the series of these waves will bring scattered to numerous showers
to the forecast area today. there is above average of general model
agreement with timing and location of the showers this afternoon into
early tonight. the favored locations for rain will be south of the
michigan border.

this cool pattern will bring more chances for frost early next week.
temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid and upper 30s mainly
sunday night and monday night. vegetation development is likely
advanced for this time of year given the large number of growing
degree days (already near or exceeding 400 south of the michigan
border). headlines will likely be needed to cover low temperatures
these cold nights. /skipper

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 639 pm edt fri may 8 2026

any remaining showers have now moved east to southeast from both
taf sites as the disturbance moves out of the area. periods of mvfr
cigs/vsbys overnight especially for kfwa, guidance does indicate
cigs at kfwa dropping briefly into ifr after 05z sat however
confidence is not high in this solution with the drier lower
levels, opted to bring it down to low mvfr cat in the taf. did
also mention thunderstorms in the area for kfwa for tomorrow
afternoon with the better convective conditions for the eastern
portions of the forecast area however exact locations/timing
still questionable.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
637 pm edt fri may 8 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures recover into the lower 60s this afternoon.

- turning warmer tomorrow with a marginal risk for severe weather
roughly along and south of the i-69 corridor.

- below normal temperatures return sunday and likely persist
through mid-week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will hold through early tonight as a weak area of
high pressure gradually exits the region. lingering pockets of high
based diurnal cu dissipates with sunset, leaving mainly clear skies
or scattered high-based cloud during this time. low level moisture
will increase overnight from the southwest, supporting low stratus
development and expansion during the mid and late morning hours.
forecast will continue highlight a window between 10z and 16z for
lower mvfr to possible ifr stratus to emerge across mainly the
detroit/ptk airspace. a cold front on pace to track across the
region saturday afternoon. a few showers and rumble of thunder
plausible within the moistening pre-frontal environment during the
morning. as low cloud mixes out and the environment destabilizes, a
narrow window will exist between 16z and 20z for brief more
organized convective development to anchor on the cold front. higher
probability exists across the detroit airspace.

d21/dtw convection...a cold front will track across se michigan
saturday afternoon. there is a low chance for a broken cluster/line
of thunderstorms to develop saturday afternoon, most likely between
16z and 20z. isolated severe weather is possible.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and saturday
morning.

* low for thunderstorms between 16z and 20z saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 334 pm edt fri may 8 2026

discussion...

a moderating south-southwest lower level flow develops today helping
draw 850mb temperatures above 0c this afternoon. this along with
greater insolation has helped the highs this afternoon reach into
the 60s. mixing depths today climb to 5kft or above, but weak flow
through the column will keep gust potential minimal. a boundary is
draped across the southern michigan border and west through northern
in and il. low level convergence along this boundary beneath a weak
shortwave is supporting a boost in clouds and scattered showers in
this corridor. thus, will maintain the low end pops into tonight
given the weak surface reflection and weakly supportive thetae. the
better pops are focused south of the state. the warmer airmass will
bring overnight lows up into the 40s tonight.

higher likelihood for a widespread coverage of showers tomorrow
morning and afternoon as a cold front will be pushed through the
area by a stronger shortwave trough diving out of central canada.
favorable diurnal timing will see around 500 j/kg of mlcape/mucape
develop across southeast michigan ahead of the front with steepening
lapse rates. this will support a chance for isolated thunderstorms
capable of hail and gusty winds. greater instability may develop in
the afternoon, making the afternoon the better isolated thunderstorm
threat. some machine learning probabilities are highlighting this
slightly higher thunderstorm potential. wind fields with the low
level jet ahead of the front will have 40-45 kts of flow at 850mb. an
isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be in the
realm of possibilities tomorrow afternoon. overall instability will
the question if earlier day clouds/rain become a limiting factor.
enough is in place for a marginal risk of severe weather to be
hoisted for roughly along and south of the i-69 corridor for the
afternoon thunderstorm potential.

typical post-frontal northwest wind shift will occur bringing drier
conditions and a cooler airmass into the region for sunday. after
the upper 60s on average for saturday, afternoon temperatures will
be down into the upper 50s and low 60s for sunday. dry weather
carries into monday and tuesday morning. minimum temperatures monday
morning and tuesday morning will dip into the mid 30s, which may
bring some frost concerns. confidence is too low this far out with
respect to cloud cover and dewpoints to highlight any impact. long
range models point to a pacnw wave moving along the north end of the
southwest us ridge that will arrive over the central great lakes
tuesday evening. ahead of this wave will bring the next chance at
widespread rainfall with increasing chances tuesday afternoon.
thunderstorm potential looks low at this time given the limited
instability upon arrival during the later part of the day into
tuesday night.

marine...

stalled front along the southern great lakes will keep rain chances
around fro lake erie the rest of the day, but pretty quiet across
the rest of the area as high pressure holds through the day. a low
pressure system is starting to develop over northern mn which will
track across lake superior tonight drawing a warm front through the
local area. winds will become southerly tonight into saturday with
gusts to around 20 knots. there remains a small window where we
could see some gusts reach 25 knots, mainly for saginaw bay,
immediately ahead of, and behind the cold front which will pass
through around 22-01z saturday evening. the cold front could also
result in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. another weak
cold front may clip northern lake huron sunday, otherwise a bit
quieter as high pressure builds back in with westerly or
northwesterly flow.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.