Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 am edt sun jun 14 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing confidence in isolated strong to severe
storms developing along and east of i77 this afternoon. primary
concern remains strong, gusty winds, although an embedded spin
up tornado is possible.

&&

.key messages...
1) spc has issued a day 1 slight risk for portions of the mahoning
valley and a marginal risk as far west as the i77 corridor given the
increasing potential for severe weather this afternoon. there
remains some uncertainty regarding how showers this morning will
impact future convection.

2) an active pattern will bring additional chances of precipitation
this week with increasing confidence in a potent low impacting the
area late wednesday into thursday. some strong to severe storms are
possible, especially wednesday night into thursday.

3) cooler temperatures expected to persist this week into next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
today, a cold front will push east across the area bringing the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. initial showers
this morning should primarily be a result from decaying convection
upstream and weak isentropic lift pushing north from south of the
area. given the overall weak environment this morning, chances for
thunder are fairly limited.

a second round of more organized convection is expected to move
across the area this afternoon into the evening hours along and
ahead of the aforementioned cold front. this round of convection
will be support by a strong short-wave pushing along the southern
edge of an upper level trough and a strong prefrontal llj of 20-30
knots. in addition, increased southwest flow will increase dewpoints
today into the 60s. the best environment for any severe weather
looks to be along and east of i77 in ohio and into nw pennsylvania
where there is the best chance for some destabilization between
rounds of rain. overall convection is expected to remain linear as
it pushes east with the primary concern being strong wind gusts. spc
has also now highlighted the aforementioned portion of the cwa in a
2% tor for today given the potential for embedded rotation within
the line. the overall outlook from spc has not changed much this
morning with portions of the mahoning valley in a day 1 slight risk
with a marginal extending further wester to the i77 corridor. it is
worth noting that there is some uncertainty regarding how the
initial round of precipitation this morning will impact later
convection chances as there is a potential it acts to stabilize the
environment a bit more than currently forecast.

in addition to the severe potential today, there is a potential for
localized heavy rainfall within the strongest storms. pwat values
climbing to 1.5-1.7 inches with generally skinny cape profiles
suggests the potential for heavy rain, although given the cooler air
advecting in, the warm cloud layers throughout the day should
gradually decrease. overall impacts should be limited to localized
ponding on roadways and in typical flood prone areas. any additional
flooding concerns should be limited to areas that see multiple
rounds of heavy precipitation today. to highlight this heavy rain
potential, wpc has issued a day 1 marginal ero for the entire
area.

key message 2...
the general pattern this week will consist of a broad upper level
trough across the eastern two-thirds of the country with multiple
embedded shortwaves expected to move east along the trough. this
will result in multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms,
including late tuesday into wednesday as a weak boundary pushes
east.

the more notable, and potentially significant, system to impact the
area is forecast to occur wednesday into thursday. a surface low
originating near the lee of the rockies is expected to strengthen as
it pushes east-northeast into the great lakes region on wednesday.
this potent surface low will be centered over the southern portion
of the region, pushing a warm front east late wednesday followed
promptly by a cold front. some model are beginning to suggest this
low beginning to occlude just north of the area, potentially leaving
northern ohio near the triple point. synoptically, this system will
be supported with strong mid-level energy coupled with a very strong
upper level jet. although there remains quite a bit of uncertainty
with this system given how far out it is, there is growing concern
regarding the severe weather potential wednesday night as a strong
llj (some models suggesting up to 60 knots) nudge northeast, further
enhancing the already strong support for storm development. with the
strong southwest flow, increased moisture advection will quickly
increase dewpoints into the 60s overnight. the biggest uncertainty
regarding this system at this point is how much instability the area
will have to work with given the diurnally unfavorable timing.
models continue to suggest that areas to the west of the cwa may see
better instability, but confidence is low that this would hinder
strong to severe convection over the area. the storm prediction
center continues to highlight northern ohio in the day 5 swo.

in addition to the potential for severe weather, the area will
likely be impacted by an anomalous strong wind field for this time
of year. given the llj and mixing heights, the entire area could see
sustained winds of 20-25 mph with localized gusts in excess of 45
mph wednesday night through thursday.

.key message 3...
cooler temperatures arrive today and are expected to stick
around as a dominant ridging pattern develops over the western
us. highs today will only climb into the mid to upper 70s before
overnight lows fall into the 50s for much of the area. in
portions of nw pa, overnight lows may fall into the mid to upper
40s, which is well below average for this time of year. these
unseasonably cool temperatures are expected to stick around with
the cpc 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both suggesting below
average temperatures into the end of june.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
widely scattered showers will lift northeast into the area this
morning, but the best chance of precipitation will arrive with a
cold front this afternoon into early this evening.
showers/thunderstorms (in addition to mvfr ceilings and possibly
ifr or lower visibilites) will arrive at ktol at around 17z
this afternoon before pushing southeast to kcak/kyng by 19-20z.
storms will be relatively quick-hitting and should exit to the
southeast by 22-23z. some lingering mvfr ceilings are possible
behind the front across ne oh and nw pa through this evening,
but ceilings will likely improve to vfr overnight.

winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 10 to 15
knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots behind the cold front this
afternoon into this evening. afternoon/early evening storms
could produce gusts to 30 to 40 knots with locally higher gusts
possible in stronger storms. winds will diminish a bit after 00z
monday.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
forecast tuesday afternoon through thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will continue through early
this morning. a cold front will move east across the lake today
and winds may very briefly increase to around 20 knots in the
far western basin immediately behind the cold front this
afternoon, although the strongest winds will likely occur in
convection this afternoon. there will also be a very brief
period of winds right around 20 knots near and east of the
islands later this evening. small craft advisory-level winds may
briefly occur during this time, but would like to see how wind
observations and model guidance trend before issuing any
headlines. if an advisory is issued, it`d be pretty short-
fused.

relatively light winds with periods of winds to 10 to 15 knots
are expected through early week. hazardous marine conditions are
expected as a potent low pressure system moves east across the
great lakes late wednesday into thursday. south/southwest winds
will increase to 25 to 30 knots by early thursday morning with
locations in the open waters possibly approaching gale force at
times through thursday afternoon as winds become more westerly.
confidence in small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements is high, but may need to consider gale headlines and
a low water advisory as the event draws closer.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 am edt sun jun 14 2026

.key messages...

- morning showers and a few thunderstorms give way to drier and
cooler air for the rest of today and monday.

- chances for showers and thunderstorms return tuesday into
thursday. a marginal risk for severe weather exists for
tuesday and a slight risk exists for wednesday.

- trends are for a cooler and drier friday into the weekend.

- there is a high swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
sunday into sunday evening. life threatening waves and
currents are expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 341 am edt sun jun 14 2026

a cold front continues to slide southeastward this morning and,
while instability begins to build this morning, think the cold
front moves fast enough to keep severe weather off to our east.
some showers and perhaps some general thunder is possible this
morning. otherwise, this cold front spells the end of the
showers and storms and the arrival of cooler and drier air. dew
points are expected to shrink back into the 50s and upper 40s by
the end of the day and highs will only be in the low to mid 70s
today. continue to expect breezes to 25 to 30 mph this
afternoon given the lingering gradient.

meanwhile, the upper low continues to establish itself in south-
central canada and serves as the center of the mid level trough
across the central conus this week. the next shortwave through the
trough arrives in the area around 12z monday, but models show
minimal response in the moisture field at this point and so expect
monday will continue to remain dry with just a few clouds around.

on the heels of the aforementioned shortwave, surface high pressure
passes by to our south and provides a dry monday night and early
tuesday. then, another shortwave sinks southeastward from canada
with minimal gulf connection and minimal theta-e plume response for
tuesday. still there appears to be a cold front that passes by to
the south with vort maxes moving through in the flow and some
instability. shear attempts to enter areas west of in-15 around 00z
according to the ecmwf, but it may be too little to late. at
the very least, think some gusty to damaging wind and hail could
be possible.

still another shortwave (stronger this time) traverses the central
plains with a surface low pressure system reflection, which moves
eastward towards southern lower michigan. tuesday`s cold front is
still being modeled as slow to move northward as a warm front for
wednesday and so it would appear a severe weather chance would be
contingent on its eventual placement. we could be in store for
elevated convection or just rain if it doesn`t advance northward
quick enough. if it does advance northward quick enough, it would
appear that all hazards could be on the table. with pwats up around
2" and a low pressure system and accompanying large scale ascent
overhead, it would appear we`d be able to squeeze out some good
rainfall amounts with. the nbm has a 20 to 40% chance to see 2"
rainfall amounts across the area in 48 hours ending thursday
morning, which is a combination of both the tuesday and wednesday
waves. a blend of just the long range (cmc/gfs/ecmwf) is lower, but
it would appear that the gfs is much lower with its output when
compared to the cmc and ecmwf.

the base of the trough still retains some vorticity in it between
thursday and friday and there`s enough instability around for
thunderstorms on friday. however, both days appear to have a lack of
shear limiting severe weather potential.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 630 am edt sun jun 14 2026

a cold front continues to slide southeastward through the day today
ushering drier conditions into sbn early this morning. however, fwa
takes a little longer to do so and will even get into some rain and
potential thunderstorms before the front departs. in addition to
some low clouds from moisture trapped under an inversion this
morning, fwa will also have adverse flight conditions from the
thunderstorm chance.

winds veer northwesterly behind the cold front after starting out of
the southwest. gusts to 25 to 30 kts are forecast for this
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through this evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through this evening for miz177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
603 am edt sun jun 14 2026

.key messages...

- numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms today, mainly this
morning and early this afternoon.

- seasonally cool this week.

- dry monday, but showers and possible storms return tuesday
afternoon and late wednesday/wednesday night.

-heaviest rainfall looks to be wednesday night, with the potential
to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.aviation...

a relative lull in convective coverage is ongoing at forecast
issuance, but moisture transport along a slow-moving cold front
offers renewed development of scattered to numerous showers mid to
late morning. ceilings will experience fluctuations but with mvfr
the predominant category this morning. the surface front is
currently sinking south between the i-69 and m-59 corridors and
marked by a wind shift from west-southwest to north and northeast.
enough instability wedged ahead of it will support potential for
isolated rumbles of thunder for the metro detroit terminals. the
front will progress south and east and is forecast to clear the
terminals around noon with wind becoming more uniform from the
northwest and breezy (20 to 25 kt) this afternoon and evening. post-
frontal drying improves lower ceilings to vfr, though sct to bkn
coverage of boundary layer cloud and a few additional showers will
be possible through the afternoon. high pressure building into ohio
valley promotes light westerly wind and continued vfr tonight.

d21/dtw convection...there is a low chance of thunderstorms as
showers approach from the north early this morning. additional
showers are likely between 16z and 19z, with the higher probability
of thunder occurring over the eastern d21 airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. low this
afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms before 19z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 253 am edt sun jun 14 2026

discussion...

the advection of an instability axis in advance of a slow moving
prefrontal trough will sustain showers and thunderstorms across se
mi early this morning. a weak instability axis is forecast to slowly
exit southeast of the metro detroit area between 15z and 17z. can
not rule out isolated strong convection early this am given the
strength of the deep layer shear overhead (0-6km bulk shear values
ranging from 35 to 60 knots, with the higher values north of the i-
69 corridor). ascent along/in advance of an associated trough axis
will invoke an increase in the frontogenetical response in the mid
levels, resulting in the emergence of a more widespread pattern of
showers late this morning into early this afternoon. as the main
region of showers exits east, diurnal heating is shown to support
weak late day instability which combined with convergence along the
main cold front will support a chance of lingering showers during the
afternoon. the inland push of the lake huron marine layer has
dropped temps into the 50s across the northern thumb early this
morning. some additional morning cooling will occur with the showers,
although model soundings suggest diurnal mixing boosting afternoon
temps into the 70s.

seasonally strong cold air advection within northwest flow will
force 850mb temps into the single digits during the course of the
afternoon and evening. clearing skies with sfc dewpoints dropping
into the 40s will result in a relatively chilly night as forecast
min temps will range from the mid to upper 40s (low 50s in the
detroit urban area).

a strong upper low will remain positioned over or just south of
hudson bay through the week, maintaining slightly cooler than normal
temps through the forecast period. forecast concerns will revolve
mainly around timing of mid level waves pivoting around the base of
upper low. there is reasonable agreement in timing of the next short
wave into the great lakes late mon night into tuesday. backed flow
in advance of this wave will advect instability back into se mi
within increasing sw flow. current indications among probabilistic
guidance suggests instability advection may only support weak
daytime instability across se mi, with the better instability
remaining just southwest of the forecast area. nonetheless, high
chances of showers/thunderstorms will remain warranted during peak
daytime heating tues aftn/evng. the next wave is set to arrive in
the wed night/thursday time frame. longer range deterministic
solutions all indicate the instability remaining south of the state
line, with srn mi most likely within a region of cool rain/showers.

marine...

winds veer toward the northwest this morning as a cold front crosses
through the central great lakes. this boundary leads to some showers
and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to marginally severe.
gradient winds increase during the day, approaching 20 knots. small
craft advisory criteria be reached for parts of saginaw bay during
late afternoon and early evening hours, although duration should be
brief. breezy conditions return each afternoon early next week, and
dry weather prevails through at least tuesday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until noon edt monday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...sc
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.