Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
506
fxus61 kcle 181738
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
138 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure and cold temperatures tonight will be sufficient
for another round of frost development. most of the forecast
area, excluding the lakeshore, and areas where the growing
season has ended; see the latest public information statement
for which counties. otherwise, no precipitation is expected
through the next 7 days with highs in the 60s and overnight lows
in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
high pressure centered across the northeast will produce vfr
conditions and light southerly flow through the taf period.

outlook...vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
south to southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots tonight becoming
light and variable monday and monday night. northeast flow
around 10 to 15 knots develops tuesday into tuesday night, with
waves around 2 to 3 feet. quiet conditions on lake erie return
wednesday and thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt monday for ohz003-006-008-
010-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
880
fxus63 kiwx 181715
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
115 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

.key messages...

- another cool night with lows in the mid 30s and areas of frost
expected.

- a frost advisory is in effect for our indiana and ohio
counties late tonight into early monday morning. the growing
season has ended for the state of michigan.

- dry and pleasant weather persists through the entire week with
highs around 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain in sight.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

main forecast concern for this package is overnight lows and
subsequent frost headlines. surface gradient tightened a bit today
as low pressure and a weak front crossed northern ontario. however,
the gradient relaxes substantially overnight as front exits and high
pressure rebuilds over the great lakes. calm winds and clear skies
set the stage for ideal radiational cooling. most 12z guidance has
upper 30s for lows tonight but roughly 25% has mid 30s and there are
a few members (10%) suggesting 33-34f possible. given ideal
radiational cooling and recent performance, decided to lean toward
the 25th percentile with 35-37f for most locations. surface
dewpoints are a little low for a widespread/heavy frost but areas of
frost will certainly be possible. much of our cwa (especially our
southern half) did not experience a widespread, killing freeze the
past two nights. therefore, the growing season will continue for in
and oh and a frost advisory has been issued for tonight/early mon.
colder temps and climatology supported an end to the growing season
for the state of michigan so no headlines will be issued there.

a gradual moderating trend is still expected this week as high
pressure slowly drifts east. highs on mon climb into the upper 60s
and hover around 70f through the weekend. the gradient remains weak
monday night but there are indications of some passing high clouds
and a slightly warmer afternoon should keep overnight lows in the
upper 30s/near 40f for most. after monday night, lows remains safely
in the 40s the rest of the week. don`t anticipate needing another
frost advisory at this time. afternoon rh values near 30 percent are
possible each day but winds remain light and will minimize fire wx
concerns. there is virtually no rain in sight for the next 10 days.
weak fronts pass to the north wed and sun but strong ridging remains
locked over the ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 115 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

high pressure continues today but is squeezed somewhat by a deepening
low over interior manitoba. this pressure gradient eases overnight
through monday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 1 am edt /midnight cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am
cdt/ monday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
481
fxus63 kdtx 181708
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
108 pm edt sun oct 18 2026

.key messages...

- sunny, mild and breezy today.

- dry with mild daytime temperatures will persist through the week.

&&

.aviation...

breezy southwest flow tops out with gusts of 20 to 25 knots this
afternoon before subsiding this evening. light southwest flow then
persists through the taf period alongside clear skies as high
pressure reinforces subsidence and dry air across se michigan.

d21/dtw convection...there will be no thunderstorms through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 am edt sun oct 18 2026

discussion...

a surface ridge axis located across the upper ohio valley and
central appalachians will sustain a south-southwest gradient across
se mi today. this will result in breezy afternoon conditions,
especially across the saginaw valley and thumb where 25 to 30 knots
are shown in the mixed layer on model soundings. this will in turn
drive afternoon temperatures in the low 60s.

low to mid level anticyclonic flow will remain dominate across much
of the eastern us for the next several days. the corresponding
region of subsidence will sustain abundant dry air across much of
the eastern us, including the great lakes, through at least the
middle of the week. this along with a weakening sfc gradient will
support a relatively high diurnal temperature response through next
week, with persistent highs in the 60s and nighttime lows in the 30s
and 40s. rising geopotential heights across the upper midwest and
great lakes monday into tuesday will cause sfc pressure rises across
northeast ontario and nrn quebec, leading to the center of sfc high
pressure becoming reoriented northeast of the great lakes region.
this will result in light east-norheasterly winds off the lakes mid
to late in the week, possibly setting the stage for some episodes of
fog. overall, the extensive dry airmass across the eastern us and
thermal profiles which will inhibit lake clouds will lead to
continued clear skies into at least wednesday.

marine...

gusty west-southwest wind persists through the day as we sit within
the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the ohio
valley and deep low pressure moving into hudson bay. a 40 to 50 kt
low-level jet passes over northern lake huron today, but the arrival
of mild air will produce increasing stability over the water that
will prevent the bulk of higher momentum from mixing down to the
surface. gusts across lake huron are forecast to range mainly
between 20 and 30 kt. latest model ensemble data indicate a 40 to
60% probability for gusts to reach 35 kt gales at times within
longer fetch areas near the straits and from saginaw bay into
central lake huron. confidence remains too low in longevity of any
marginal gales to hoist a gale warning. the peak in wind magnitude
is expected between 2pm and 10pm with a coincident uptick in wave
heights. wind then begins to subside overnight as the jet departs
and high pressure builds northward into the great lakes. this ridge
stalls across the area bringing tranquil marine weather at least
through the middle of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...sc
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.