Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
142 am edt tue oct 27 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes as quiet weather continues.

&&

.key messages...
1) layer rh remains at such a level that precipitation will be hard to
come by in any appreciable amounts until the late weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
zero precipitation cold front will be south of the cwa this
evening/tonight, with only anafrontal cloud cover to show for it and
wind shifts. as high pressure centered in quebec builds back into
the region for tuesday, winds out of the northeast will have the
most significant effect on temperatures, with the lakeshore areas
down several degrees into the low to mid 60s. otherwise, temperature
decreases further inland in the wake of the cold front will be
minimal.

another cold front moves in from the northwest for late thursday
into thursday night. as mentioned above, the column rh is low, and
with the main energy of the low pressure system moving through
northern ontario and central quebec, shower chances will be on the
decrease as the front moves into ohio. ultimately, chances will be
mainly isolated, and only bare minimum qpf is expected, primarily in
ne oh/nw pa. it will not be until the weekend when a pattern change
brings more of a spring-like pattern with a warm sector developing
and a feed of moisture form the gulf. this will increase convective
chance going into the latter half of the weekend. until that point
in time, expect above normal temperatures from wednesday onward, and
widespread 70s for this late october time frame.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period with high
pressure returning to the area. an expanse of clouds around 4-6
kft extend from eastern michigan across lake erie into nw pa and
will impact keri overnight. otherwise, mid-to-high level clouds
will be in and out of the terminals through the taf periods with
ceilings around 15-20 kft. winds will be light out of the
general northeast direction through the period. toward the end
of the taf period, winds will shift to a more southerly
direction with high pressure passing to the northeast.

outlook...primarily vfr expected through saturday.

&&

.marine...
in the wake of a cold front, winds northeasterly 10-20kts tonight
into tuesday bring wave heights to 2-4ft, gradually decreasing to 1-
3ft tuesday night. as high pressure moves southeast of lake erie,
winds become offshore and will remain offshore through the end of
the week below 10kts through wednesday with wave heights less than a
foot, and then 10-20kts thursday into thursday night ahead of the
next cold front with wave heights increasing to 1-3ft. winds
offshore once again friday behind the cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sefcovic
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
149 am edt tue oct 27 2026

.key messages...

- warm and dry conditions persist through tomorrow with highs
generally in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

- light rain is possible on thursday. the best chances (50-80%) will
be near lake michigan.

- better chances for widespread rain arrive on sunday but
forecast confidence for this period is low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 146 am edt tue oct 27 2026

yesterday`s frontal boundary has washed out completely across our
area but we do have a brief return to easterly flow this morning.
luckily numerous high clouds, a steady gradient wind and an overall
warmer/drier boundary layer are keeping fog in check. flow veers to
a more s/se direction by this afternoon and highs should recover to
around 70f outside of our far ne. warm/moist air advection then
steadily increases tonight through thu ahead of the next cold front
headed for our area. expect more mid 70s on wed and some upper 70s
possible by thu dependent on exact frontal timing. as previously
mentioned, thursday`s frontal passage will feature a much better
prefrontal llj and theta-e surge, enough to at least partially
offset the incredibly dry and stable airmass that has been in place
for so long. mid/upper level support is still not great this far
south with far better cva and upper jet support over lake superior
and points north. still, enough moisture advection and low level
convergence to generate some very light rain showers with the best
chances near lake michigan thursday afternoon. latest guidance even
suggests a few sprinkles surviving into our se thu evening. no
impacts anticipated though. removed the brief/small nbm thunder
mention given near total lack of instability on forecast soundings.

a return to less extreme warmth fri and sat with highs around 70f. a
very high level of spread still exists among all sources of
deterministic and ensemble guidance for the weekend into next week.
this uncertainty centers around an unusually southward displaced
pacific jet streak/shortwave emanating from the data-sparse regions
off the mexican coast that will eventually lift northeast into our
region. models struggling with this and another upper low that
develops off the northwest u.s. coast. very low confidence regarding
forecast details sat-tue. still think halloween will be mostly dry
for trick-or-treat activities but nbm maintains some low chance
pop`s and can`t entirely rule it out. much better rain chances seem
to arrive sunday with remarkable uncertainty regarding a potential
second system around tuesday of next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 146 am edt tue oct 27 2026

a mid level ridge axis will shift across the eastern great lakes
this morning allowing continuation of some mid level warm
advection cloudiness. fog potential continues to look much lower
in comparison to previous several mornings, and a vfr forecast
has been maintained with the 06z tafs. surface high pressure
across southern ontario will spread across southeast
ontario/southern quebec this afternoon as larger scale sfc
pressure falls develop across the upper midwest downstream of an
upper level short wave trough. this evolution will allow for
initial easterly winds to veer southeast today, but speeds
should be 10 knots or less through the day. a southern stream
short wave across the southern plains will reach the ohio valley
tonight, but any weakly pooled moisture to the north of stalled
baroclinic zone will retreat to the north. this will keep dry
conditions in place through this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1157 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

.key messages...

- cooler temperatures can be expected tuesday.

- mild weather will then prevail through the rest of the week.

- there is a chance for light rain thursday and thursday night.

&&

.aviation...

a steady influx of higher level moisture will provide intervals of
thicker mid and high based cloud cover over the next 24 hours. this
will occur within a prevailing low level northeast to east wind
generally below 10 knots. this trajectory does maintain a very low
probability for lower cloud production to emerge overnight, but
little evidence exists within latest model guidance or
observational/satellite data to offer higher confidence for
inclusion at any location at this time.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft through tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 pm edt mon oct 26 2026

discussion...

the surface cold front will exit south of the state by late
afternoon. the shallow low level frontal circulation and lack of
upper level forcing has maintained a dry fropa across se mi today.
the cold front has been driven southward as a 1035mb sfc high
expands across northern ontario. this high will sustain low level
anticyclonic flow across se mi through tuesday as it drifts toward
srn quebec, resulting in continued dry weather across se mi. post
frontal cold air advection will drop 925mb temps down into the
single digits tonight. a light gradient flow and occasional mid/high
clouds will offer some limit to radiational cooling tonight,
supporting lows from the upper 30s in the thumb to mid 40s in
detroit. residual shallow cold air within east-southeasterly sfc
winds will limit daytime mixing on tuesday, supporting daytime highs
of mid 50s in the thumb to low 60s across metro detroit south.

occasional mid/high clouds will persist into wednesday as a broad
mid level warm air advection regime envelops the region within
emerging deep layer southwest flow. an embedded short wave impulse is
forecast to lift into the great lakes region from the southwest
wednesday. model cross sections indicate elevated and shallow moist
isentropic ascent associated with this feature, not supportive of
rain. veering of the surface winds toward the south on wednesday
with the continued eastward departure of the surface high will drive
925mb temps into the teens. probabilistic guidance is well clustered
on highs into the low 70s wednesday within the pattern, roughly 15
degree above seasonal norms.

a northern stream short wave will drive a sfc cold front into lower
mi on thursday. there are indications that the deep layer frontal
structure will weaken/become frontolytic as it tracks across se mi
thurs/thurs night. nonetheless, a narrow axis of deep layer moisture
with some steeper mid level lapse rates will warrant a chance of
showers. probabilistic guidance suggests the better chances will be
across the tri cities and thumb. strong indications within the data
indicate that if it were to rain, qpf amounts will be a few
hundredths of an inch at best. strengthening southwest flow in
advance of the front will set the stage for a mild day thursday as
model soundings and prob guidance support highs in the low to mid
70s. any semblance of post frontal cold air advection looks brief as
the northern stream jet retreats to the north allowing mild air to
remain entrenched across the great lakes region.

marine...

ongoing post frontal cold air advection is boosting northerly wind
gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range across southern lake huron.
recent runs of the wave model are suggesting significant waves across
the southern basin and portions of outer saginaw reaching 3 feet
this evening, with max wave heights in the 4 to 5 foot range. while
somewhat borderline, a short fused small craft advisory has been
issued for this evening.

winds and waves will decrease overnight and will veer more easterly
associated with strong high pressure expanding to the north of lake
huron. the high will become centered over new england by wednesday.
this and an approaching cold front from the northwest will result in
south-southwesterly winds across the lakes. an increase in the
southwest gradient immediately ahead of the front on thursday will
boost wind gusts to 20 to 25 knots. while the wind response may be
tempered a bit by the warm air advection across the lakes, the
southwest flow may lead to another round of hazardous conditions to
small craft on saginaw bay.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sc
marine.......sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.