Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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073
fxus61 kcle 171203
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
703 am est tue feb 17 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) above average temperatures expected through friday with seasonal
temperatures this weekend into early next week.

2) series of low pressure system will pass through the region
through the weekend bringing rain showers on wednesday and thursday
night, and possible snow showers this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
temperatures through friday will remain above average due to upper
level ridging over the eastern conus and persistent west to
southwesterly flow over the region. wednesday will be the warmest
day of the week with high probability of temperatures hitting the
low to mid 60s during the day. this will be in part due to a warm
front moving south to north across the area ahead of an approaching
low pressure system. temperatures will moderate slightly behind the
low and rain showers on wednesday, but highs will stay above average
in the 50s. another low pressure system will pass through the great
lakes region on friday sweeping a cold front that will drop
temperatures to be more seasonal. highs will be in the 40s on
saturday before dropping into the 30s for sunday and for the start
of next week.

additional impacts include potential ice jams along rivers and
streams throughout the region. accompanied by the rain showers on
wednesday, there is a possibility of seeing a minor river response
as frozen rivers begin to deteriorate and break apart. will continue
to monitor the rivers over the next few days for potential flooding
concerns.

key message 2...
rain showers return to the region on wednesday as a low pressure
system enters into the western great lakes. a warm front will lift
north through the region wednesday morning followed by a weak cold
front wednesday afternoon into the evening. there is higher
probability of rain showers along the warm front as it pushes into
the northern portion of the cwa as that will be where the strongest
frontogenesis will be. the cold front will enter from the west in
the afternoon and bring more widespread potential for rainfall.
generally, qpf is around a 0.10" to 0.20" for the majority of the
area. the highest amounts will be in northeastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania as they could see 0.30" to 0.40". there
will be a minor amounts of cape (250-400 j/kg) with this system
so can`t rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder or two
during the afternoon. winds will be gusty during the day
supported by a 40-50 knot llj across the region. gusts will be
around 30 to 40mph with the strongest winds expected in western
ohio during the afternoon with frontal passage.

another chance for precipitation will be thursday evening into
friday as another low moves northeast from the mid-mississippi
valley into the great lakes. rain showers will begin late thursday
evening as a warm front passes through and will be followed quickly
by the cold front. any precipitation should end by friday
afternoon/early evening. as colder air moves in behind the system,
any lingering rain showers will change over to a rain snow mix, then
over to snow completely later in the evening given that
precipitation is still occurring. snow chances will return again on
sunday as an upper level low moves through the great lakes region
with possible lake enhanced snow showers behind the system to begin
next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
fog across central ohio has expanded north into cak this
morning with lifr ceilings also in place at yng. most other
terminals are experiencing mvfr visibilities with a broken cloud
deck at 10-15k feet. expect visibilities and ceilings to
gradually improve this morning, taking a little longer in the
east. eri is likely to maintain a stratus deck, initially mvfr
but expected to fall to ifr/lifr for a period of time this
afternoon. a stationary front is expected to settle south across
lake erie with low ceilings and possibly fog coming in off the
lake to eri. there is uncertainty in how low visibilities will
be with this but can not rule out dense fog. otherwise look for
mvfr ceilings to fill in from west to east tonight as a warm
front lifts north into the area. looks like terminals in ohio
will lower to mvfr prior to 12z with rain expanding into tol
prior to 12z and cle after 12z.

winds will tend to be southerly today except shifting to
east/northeast at eri. winds will increase into wednesday
morning.

outlook...non-vfr conditions possible wednesday and thursday
night into friday in rain showers.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds on lake erie will shift out of the northeast this
afternoon. easterly winds increase to 10-20 knots tonight, then veer
to southwesterly at 15-20 knots on wednesday as a warm front lifts
north across lake erie. another enhanced window of winds is expected
thursday night into friday as easterly winds of 15-20 knots become
southwesterly at 20-25 knots with the passage of a cold front.

multiple periods with elevated winds along with much above normal
temperatures across the region this week will continue to rot the
ice with ice floes expected. shore ice may break off and any
available shipping channels may be closed. it is important for
people to stay off the ice this week or risk getting stranded. in
addition, the warmer air overspreading the cold lake will result in
areas of fog this afternoon and on wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 171120
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 am est tue feb 17 2026

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s
through thursday.

- rain showers are likely tonight into wednesday morning, and
again thursday into thursday night.

- cooler by this weekend with chances for rain and snow showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 am est tue feb 17 2026

slightly stronger southerly flow on the backside of sfc high
pressure, and areas of mid-high clouds in a broad waa regime,
should reduce the fog threat for most this morning when compared
to yesterday. another mild/dry day otherwise today as shortwave
ridging overspreads in advance of an upper trough and sfc low
lifting northeast into the upper midwest and western great lakes
tonight into wednesday. a relatively deep corridor of moist
isentropic ascent will precede this wave under the left exit
region of an incoming ~160 kt upper jet later this evening
through wednesday morning. better low level convergence near a
developing frontal zone primarily sets up just north of the
area, though still expect at least scattered/numerous showers
given the sufficient moisture advection and incoming steeper mid
level lapse rates. rainfall amounts should overall remain on
the light side (<0.20", heaviest north), though localized
heavier amounts cannot be ruled out in any gusty convective
elements wed am. dry slot and associated warm sector should
become well established then by wed pm with breezy/mild
conditions (near record high temps) behind a dry line type
feature.

additional chances for rain and perhaps some thunder will increase
thursday into thursday night as a secondary shortwave emerges out of
the rockies and rotates a deepening sfc low northward into the
western and northern great lakes. a colder, more seasonable, air
mass will then rotate in behind this system later friday into the
weekend. several shortwaves will also rotate through in this colder
cyclonic flow with periodic chances for snow showers.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 620 am est tue feb 17 2026

mid level clouds and a modest low level height gradient have
helped prevent widespread fog formation across northern indiana
this morning. patchy fog has been most prevalent east of kfwa
into northwest ohio and extreme northeast indiana where mid
level clouds thinned faster and allowed for a period of better
radiational cooling. with broad warm advection increasing this
morning, near sfc dew point depressions should remain large
enough to prevent significant fog concerns this morning. cannot
completely discount some brief mvfr vsby restriction potential
in the 12z-14z timeframe, but confidence in inclusion as far as
tempo mention is diminishing.

otherwise, stalling low level cold front north of terminals
will lose its integrity today with overall weak flow and poor
mixing for the terminals. light south winds will strengthen
tonight as deep low pressure shifts across eastern south
dakota/northwest iowa. a downstream low level jet will allow for
more notable low level moisture advection into the region
tonight. this setup appears marginal in terms of meeting llws
criteria, so will refrain from mention at this longer forecast
distance. this increased moisture, upper level diffluence, and
favorable jet dynamics should allow for blossoming rain to
affect terminals late in the period tonight. some weak elevated
instability could yield an iso thunder potential, particularly
at ksbn, but point probabilities remain too low for inclusion
with the 12z tafs. conditions should deteriorate to mvfr late
evening into early wednesday morning, with a potential of some
ifr cigs late tonight/early wednesday at ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 171017
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
517 am est tue feb 17 2026

.key messages...

- dense fog this morning from northern detroit suburbs to flint,
port huron, and thumb.

- the next round of precipitation is on schedule for tonight and
wednesday. all rain is expected with a chance of freezing rain north
of m 46.

- mild temperatures persist through thursday.

- a rain/snow mix moves in by friday followed by a temperature drop
back toward mid/late february normals this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

calm winds with early morning clear skies allowed areas of dense fog
to develop across a greater portion of se mi, with the later arrival
of mid-level clouds doing little to hamper fog development. lifr to
ifr visibility restrictions are expected through the morning hours
with visibilities ranging between a quarter-mile up to 1 mile.
expansion of a robust stratus deck with fog now across the northern
thumb will continue to be monitored for expansion through kmbs. the
latest hi-res model highlight veering winds this morning which would
allow it to continue to expand south, which is highlighted in the
prevailing forecast. given the overachievement of fog this morning,
lingering dense fog will be likely after daybreak, with eventual
lifting of the fog to stratus, before better scouring out occurs
through the afternoon. the exception will be across kmbs, where the
aforementioned stratus may linger over the terminal through the
afternoon and evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm this morning.

* low for cig at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. high overnight
wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am est tue feb 17 2026

discussion...

a unique fog scenario is unfolding within a weak cold front/trough
that was initially low cloud-free for much of the night. this
allowed radiational cooling in and near the surface trough where mid
to upper 30s td pooled resulting in a large area of dense fog from
the northern thumb to port huron, flint, and the northern suburbs of
detroit. a dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 am for this
area. some of the fog could leak south toward the i-94 corridor,
however the effect of mid and high clouds is holding surface t up in
the lower to mid 40s. plan to monitor trends there and also
northward toward the tri cities.

the cold front settles and stalls just south of the ohio border this
afternoon, and remains precipitation-free as the 500 mb ridge axis
moves overhead and stabilizes the frontal zone. it will be dry but
there will be a substantial cloud component within the low to mid
levels of the frontal zone all across southern lower mi. increasing
easterly surface and boundary layer wind builds the fog into a
stratus layer, especially north of i-69, while mid and high clouds
continue to thicken over the entire region this afternoon. the
clouds and wind direction combine to knock temperatures down 5 to 10
degrees compared to monday. highs today range from the upper 30s
along the lake huron shoreline and saginaw bay to the upper 40s
interior west of i-75, a good representation of the wind direction
influence across the area.

the front awaits activation by the large low pressure system that is
on schedule to organize across the northern to central plains this
afternoon. the pacific coast 500 mb low is well on the way through
the rockies this morning accompanied by a 170 kt 250 mb jet, both of
which will induce strong lee side cyclogenesis across the plains
this afternoon. organization of the surface system includes a strong
low level jet spreading eastward along the front that has access to
gulf modified air for transport into the low to mid levels of the
frontal zone over the great lakes. the strong moisture transport
quickly produces an expanding pattern of showers on the leading edge
and within the advancing theta-e ridge to near widespread coverage
by midnight. given the limited temperature rebound today, readings
are expected to drift down slightly below freezing this evening in
the northern thumb and northern reaches of midland and bay counties
making that area vulnerable to a few hours of freezing rain. this
forecast update increases the freezing rain footprint in the
northern thumb where easterly wind brings in colder air unobstructed
from ontario across a mostly frozen southern lake huron. there is
greater coverage potential but still a relatively short time window
for icing to occur as even there readings are projected to quickly
rise above freezing after about 3 am tonight. the temperature trends
will be monitored closely for potential of anything more than
current the current light glaze of icing expectation.

the peak of the rain event occurs late tonight and early wednesday
as the 850-700 mb frontal zone surges south to north across lower
mi. interesting that elevated instability was adequate for a few
thunderstorms in northern lower mi yesterday afternoon which points
to even greater potential as model data takes 850 mb li negative
during peak moisture transport and on the leading edge of the mid
level dry slot. this dry slot brings a quick end to the rain by
early wednesday afternoon while the warm front/occlusion stalls in
the vicinity of the i-69 corridor. the frontal position allows the
warm sector to build north of the ohio border up through metro
detroit where highs in the lower 60s remain in reach while readings
could be limited to the upper 30s again in the northern thumb.

the midwest to great lakes system stalls and begins to fill
wednesday night and thursday as the next larger scale wave breaks
away from the pacific coast long wave trough. this system moves
inland and into the central plains thursday on a track into the
western great lakes thursday night and friday where it merges with
the leftover frontal zone from the wednesday system. longer range
model runs indicate a strong occlusion over lower mi that favors
rain at onset changing to a rain/snow mix as the system pivots
through the area friday and exits friday night. temperatures then
drop back toward normal mid/late february readings for next weekend.

marine...

the great lakes reside within a deformation zone this morning,
leading to split flow with northwest winds across lake huron and
southwest winds across lake erie. low pressure is already well
organized and moving into the plains at issuance, which will
organize winds out of the east through the day as it moves closer.
elevated portions of the system`s warm front expand north across the
great lakes wednesday, drawing the low level jet northward but
leaving enough depth to the cold air to mix a few thousand feet off
the deck. guidance continues to support a threat for gale force wind
gusts daytime wednesday across northern lake huron where the cold
air is deepest. there is enough confidence in the setup for a gale
warning upgrade with the early morning forecast issuance. marine
areas south of sturgeon point likely see rain with this system, with
increasing chances for wintry mix to the north. next round of
elevated wind potential comes friday as another low pressure system
impacts the great lakes region.

hydrology...

widespread rain moves in ahead of a strong low pressure system and
warm front tonight and wednesday. moderate probabilities for 0.25"
to 0.5" of rain are expected south of i-94 and low to moderate
probabilities for 0.5" to 0.75" to the north across the rest of se
michigan. the rain will occur on top of a melting snowpack that had
a snow water equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". the
combination of rain and snow melt on frozen ground may lead to rises
on area streams and rivers. ponding of water on roads is also
possible, especially where drains could be blocked by snow and/or
winter debris.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz049-054-055-
060>063-068>070.

lake huron...gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est wednesday for lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...bt
marine.......mv/bt
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.