Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
220
fxus61 kcle 181818
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
218 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

.what has changed...
there were no changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight through
wednesday.

2) an unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms likely..

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure today will gradually shift east as a weak cold front
associated with a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest
tonight. light showers are possible beginning around midnight for
the toledo area and then spreading east into wednesday morning. the
best support for shower develop should be along and north of us-30
initially before becoming more widespread wednesday
afternoon/evening. the remains minimal thunder potential through
wednesday morning as the airmass remains fairly stable, but as
diurnal heating increase into the afternoon chances of thunder will
increase. at this point, given the disjointed timing between the
upper level support and the surface heating, the severe potential
remains limited. conditions should dry out by thursday morning as
high pressure returns. highs today through thursday will be in the
mid 70 to low 80s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s to
low 60s.

key message 2...
the high pressure system impacting the area on thursday and friday
will push east this weekend as a deepening trough and associated
surface low are expected to impact the area. models are becoming
more consistent with the cold front pushing east late saturday with
showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. this would put
shower and thunderstorms across the area saturday afternoon into
sunday morning. although exact timing remains uncertain, given the
strong dynamics including a strong upper level jet and vort max,
will likely see thunderstorms at some point. if the best synoptic
energy coincides with the best diurnal heating, some of these storms
may become strong to severe. will need to keep an eye on this system
in the coming days to determine the potential severe risk this
weekend. temperatures are expected to remain consistent, climbing
into the upper 70s to low 80s for highs and falling into the upper
50s to low 60s for overnight lows.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are prevalent across the region. there are some
diurnal clouds forming a broken ceiling from kfdy eastward at
around 040-050. this will persist to around 00z when an upper level
ceilings moves into the region. weakening showers are expected late
tonight into early tomorrow morning that may impact terminals,
though main impacts will be ceilings lowering to around 050. showers
should dissipate by kcle and the eastern terminals will remain dry
outside of keri. ceilings will progressively drop through the day
tomorrow down to mvfr conditions and will last through the end of
the taf period. winds will be light through the taf period,
generally out of the northwest at around 5 knots this evening then
shifting to the southwest at less than 5 knots overnight. winds will
shift back out of the west at 5-10 knots during the day tomorrow
with the approaching cold front.

outlook...non-vfr possible on wednesday and saturday with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
light and variable conditions are replaced by southwest winds as
high pressure departs to the south. as a cold front approaches
from the northwest, should see southwest winds strengthen to
around 15 knots, with some low potential to briefly reach 20
knots at times, especially tonight and into wednesday morning.
waves build to a peak of 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters of the
central and eastern basin of lake erie wednesday morning. if we
can get 20 knots, there is some potential for 4 ft waves despite
the wind direction being near parallel to the shoreline. will
have to monitor this period for small craft advisory and beach
hazard statements.

additionally, showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tonight into parts of the day wednesday. overall risk is low but
can`t rule out a few stronger wind gust in the 30-40 mph range.

the cold front cross lake erie wednesday evening with winds
quickly becoming northeast wednesday night. high pressure builds
in overhead on thursday and friday, with quiet weather
conditions on lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...23
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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885
fxus63 kiwx 181856
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
256 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

.key messages...

- the next chance of rain arrives tonight and persists through
wednesday.

- severe weather is not expected but a few strong storms may be
possible in far nw in/sw mi late this evening. heavy rain is
also not expected.

- after pleasant conditions thursday and friday, more light rain
is expected on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 206 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

not a lot of wholesale changes to this forecast period. cool
front currently sitting over southcentral mi and orientated to
the southwest into central il still on schedule to begin pushing
southeastward into the area this evening. looks like after 6 pm
edt chances for some light showers increase out ahead of the
incoming frontal boundary for our far northwestern parts of the
cwa before some scattered thunderstorms along the front push in
shortly afterwards and continues to move southeastward through
the area overnight into wednesday. forecasted instability,
mainly elevated, with values less than 1000 j/kg coupled with
decent shear values ahead of and along the front with values
around 70-80 kts, and surface dew points currently in the 60s
across the area. expectation in this environment with the later
diurnal timing that some of the storms may become strong but
would trend weaker through the evening as the front
southeastward.

on wednesday, depending on the exact position of the frontal
boundary, which at this time will most likely be over our far
south/southeastern parts of the cwa. which if this does pan out
then there will be afternoon slight chances of showers and
storms mainly for the southern half of the cwa with the close
proximity of the frontal boundary to provide a bit of lift.
however, severe storms are not expected with most of the area to
the north of the boundary with a less than ideal environment
especially with a drier airmass pushing in from the north in the
wake of the front by wednesday afternoon and evening. zonal flow
aloft across the region will bring slightly cooler temperatures
across the area into friday with highs in the upper 70s
expected. fairly nice weather with comfortable conditions will
be in place for thursday and friday before another cool front
associated with a trough dropping southeastward into the great
lakes arrives late friday and into saturday increasing chances
once again for showers and storms and before pushing quickly
eastward.

by sunday, ridging over the central conus then begins to
build northward into the region bringing another period of dry
weather and a slight warming trend into next week with highs
back into the low 80s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 128 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

vfr conditions with fairly light west to southwest winds are
expected into this evening. a likely weakening area of showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms is expected to move into the
terminal area very late this evening or more likely just after
midnight.

in the wake of the rain chances, a period of lower cigs is
looking increasingly possible wednesday morning. for now,
introduced low end mvfr cigs into the tafs with some diurnal
improvement expected by mid-late morning. it is worth noting
that some guidance does bring cigs down to ifr, but given low
confidence opted to go quite that low yet.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...izzi

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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992
fxus63 kdtx 181701
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
101 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions for much of today.

- a low chance of showers and thunderstorms starting late afternoon
across the saginaw valley and thumb, with a greater potential for
showers with isolated thunderstorms for all of southeast michigan
tonight.

- a few lingering showers possible early wednesday, then turning
drier again with temperatures slightly below normal for the end of
the week.

&&

.aviation...

pockets of high based cloud atop a scattered to briefly broken
coverage of diurnal cu will mark conditions through the late
afternoon hours. prevailing wind from the west-southwest. a weak
frontal boundary lifting across the region will bring increasing
potential for shower development late this evening and overnight.
isolated thunderstorm potential also exists, but confidence in
occurrence remains low and precludes a defined mention. window
exists within the immediate post-frontal environment for lower
stratus to increase coverage, leading to some intervals of mvfr
cigs. forecast will continue to highlight this potential for late
tonight. lingering low cloud lifts into a standard vfr cu field for
wednesday. post-frontal winds becoming northwesterly wednesday.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance of a thunderstorm tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this afternoon into the
evening, medium tonight, and high tomorrow morning.

* very low for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 am edt tue aug 18 2026

discussion...

pleasant again today as the region starts the day under the
influence of departing high pressure. subtle change from yesterday
is the establishment of deep layer westerly flow into southern lower
mi with the departure of said high. this nudges temps up a couple
degrees with highs around the mid 80s as well as a modest increase in
humidity with dewpoints creeping back to the lower to mid 60s.
increasing afternoon cloud cover marks the arrival of a cold frontal
boundary dropping through the great lakes. high res models continue
to key on a prefrontal trough feature sliding over northern lower
mi/lake huron generating isolated to widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms. while the best potential stays north of the
area, the saginaw valley/thumb hold on its southern fringe offering
some late afternoon rain chances, particularly north of m-46. main
window for se mi as a whole however comes late evening-overnight as
the surface cold front reaches the straits/northwestern lake
michigan. frontal boundary expected to generate a healthy coverage of
convection over the western great lakes however local arrival in the
western cwa looking to be between 00-03z. late in the diurnal window
in addition to signal convection outpaces driving instability,
increases uncertainty to what degree thunderstorms can maintain
themselves while crossing the state. areas west of i-75/us- 23 stand
the best chance at thunder given the earlier timing supporting higher
residual cape. while an isolated stronger cell capable of gusty
winds can`t be ruled out due to marginally favorable kinematics
(unidirectional shear around 30kts), the thermodynamic setup (lapse
rates under 6.5 c/km & ~500 j/kg of elevated cape) is unfavorable for
severe storms.

scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunder work across the
area for the rest of the night before the cold front clears to our
south first part of wednesday morning. passage of a secondary cold
front daytime wednesday could generate a few afternoon showers,
though most of se mi stays dry. drier weather holds through the
remainder of the work week as surface high pressure slides directly
across lower mi. unsettled pattern eventually returns friday night
into the weekend as a mid-level shortwave dropping out of the
canadian prairie reaches the great lakes amplifying overhead upper
troughing.

marine...

southwest flow briefly becomes established this morning as high
pressure washes out across the eastern great lakes. winds remain
light for most locations through the afternoon, but localized
stronger gusts around 20 knots will be possible in the saginaw bay
given the more favorable fetch.

more active weather returns this afternoon and evening with the
passage of a cold front. showers and thunderstorms will be likely
with the front as winds veer from southwest to northwest in the wake
of the front. a slight uptick in winds are expected along and behind
the front as cooler conditions filter in. wind gust of 20 to 25
knots will be likely with the frontal passage. high pressure will
then fill back in on thursday, tempering wind speeds for the day.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.