Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
533 pm edt sat aug 22 2026

.what has changed...
a flood watch has been issued for along and east of i-77 through
10 pm this evening. a severe thunderstorm watch as been issued
for most of the forecast area through 9 pm this evening. main
hazards for the severe thunderstorm watch are damaging winds and
large hail.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this
afternoon and evening. some storms may turn severe with damaging
winds and large hail the main hazards. flash flooding is
possible along and east of i-77.

2) below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and
start the upcoming week. periodic lake-enhanced rain showers
will primarily impact portions of northeast oh and northwest pa
late tonight through at least monday night, with a few showers
or storms elsewhere sunday afternoon/evening.

3) a period of dry and quiet weather is expected the first half
of the week. scattered showers thunderstorms return wednesday
night into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/
moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early
this morning, primarily over lake erie but extending southwest
into parts of north central oh as of 3 am. while this activity
is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this
morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world
awakens, particularly over and close to lake erie. while it may
not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater
shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to
severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours.

aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central great lakes today
into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative
tilt. this will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen
while drifting out of northern michigan and into southern
ontario late today and tonight. a pre-frontal trough is still
expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from
west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in northwest oh
late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area
through this evening. large scale forcing for ascent will
maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds
the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the
northern oh/lake erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is
evident even earlier in the day.

showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the
midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in
coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon
and early evening. showers/storms are expected to exit southeast
this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly
transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. activity
will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake
breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the i-77
corridor this afternoon, and across northwest oh along the cold
front itself. given the increasing forcing into the late
afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it`s
likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread
convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas
likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. with that
said, nearly all cams develop fairly numerous storms along the
cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are
that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm
this afternoon/evening on the balance.

there is some potential for both severe weather and locally
heavy rain with storms this afternoon/evening, though the
overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards.
clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will
slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped
instability (1000-2000 j/kg of mlcape) is expected to develop
through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around
8c/km. some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest
dcape values in the 500-800 j/kg range. these marginal
thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep-
layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized
convection. the primary severe threat today will be locally
damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters
that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells.
isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts
that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within
storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow
will be more backed. while the overall lower-end environment and
potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the
atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most cams have
quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization
depicted, giving the spc confidence to introduce a slight risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of
the i-75 corridor (and a marginal/level 1 of 5 for i-75).

in terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west-
southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front,
so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training
does exist. precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are
not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we
will need to monitor portions of northeast oh/northwest pa for
repeated storms or training convection that can still drop
localized 2-3" rain amounts. otherwise, area-average qpf will
generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least
across northwest oh and greatest across northeast oh/northwest
pa. the wpc has introduced a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across northeast oh
and northwest pa in their latest excessive rainfall outlook.

key message 2...
after pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the
surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern great
lakes will continue to deepen through sunday while beginning to
stack, cut-off, and slow. the system will then start to slowly
fill/weaken sunday night and monday while drifting to the east-
northeast across southeastern canada and new england. the
seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and
lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/
upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the
weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain.
850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9c sunday night into
early monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0c as
500mb temperatures fall to around -20c.

most of the area will dry out late this evening into the
overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west-
northwest flow aligns over the ~25c lake waters some lake-
enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into northeast
oh/northwest pa. a vort max and low-level trough axis will
cross the region very late tonight into early sunday, likely
causing activity to peak in organization. while some lake effect
showers will continue on sunday across northeast oh/northwest
pa, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for
several hours after the morning trough passage. another potent
vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the
northwest late sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another
uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast
of lake erie from as far west as the islands and sandusky points
east. there will also be an uptick in showers across the rest
of the area with the trough passage late sunday afternoon and
evening. chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through
at least monday night or early tuesday and some lake effect/
enhanced shower activity remains likely. however, there will
likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized
later sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. a
possible exception is monday night when another vort max and
trough passage is hinted at. that could cause one last uptick
in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east.

in terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over
the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake-
enhanced activity...especially through the first half of sunday
night. the overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest
fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn`t overly
favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk
across the snowbelt. however, rain amounts will gradually add up
(especially through sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers
are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will
need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of northeast oh or
northwest pa see locally heavy rain today. the heaviest rain
amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore
form the cleveland area points east-northeast. otherwise, with
cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any
thunderstorms with the trough passage late sunday afternoon/
evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially
over and downwind of lake erie.

key message 3...
locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected
to dry out sunday night and remain dry into the first half of
the week. lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting
late sunday night and eventually end by tuesday as discussed
above. overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the
week across much of the area. temperatures will slowly rebound
towards normal starting on tuesday. another trough is expected
to dig into the great lakes wednesday night and thursday. this
will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its
associated fronts. chances for showers and some storms may
arrive as early as wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most
favored on thursday with this system.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide today,
especially along and east of i-77 where multiple rounds of
storms are likely this afternoon and evening. ifr and lower
conditions with reduced visibilities are likely with any
thunderstorm today.

spc has a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for
this afternoon and evening. strong to damaging wind gusts up to
50 knots are possible within the strongest storms, along with
hail up to 1 inch in diameter. these hazards are likely to be
isolated in nature and there is a low probability of impact to any
terminal directly.

scattered rain showers and mvfr ceilings may linger across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania tonight, becoming more
reserved to northwest pennsylvania tomorrow.

outlook...non-vfr conditions will be likely sunday through
monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated
thunder possible for areas downwind of lake erie in northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will move across the lake through this evening
bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. some of these
storms could be strong to severe with isolated wind gusts as
high as 40-50 knots. winds will shift around from the west to
northwest tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue sunday through
monday. waves will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those
rough conditions will likely continue sunday through monday.
waterspouts will be very possible on lake erie starting tonight
and lingering through monday. small craft advisories and beach
hazard statements for rip currents have been issued late tonight
through monday afternoon and evening. high pressure will slowly
build in monday into tuesday with conditions on lake erie
improving. by tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly
5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from midnight edt tonight through
monday afternoon for ohz009-010.
flood watch until 10 pm edt this evening for ohz011>014-
021>023-032-033-089.
beach hazards statement from midnight edt tonight through
monday evening for ohz011-012-089.
pa...flood watch until 10 pm edt this evening for paz001>003.
beach hazards statement from midnight edt tonight through
monday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 5 pm edt monday
for lez144-145.
small craft advisory from midnight tonight to midnight edt
monday night for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders/sullivan
aviation...kahn/saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
110 pm edt sat aug 22 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and isolated storms possible east of i-69 this
afternoon and evening.

- breezy today with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph.

- 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of
lake michigan tonight through sunday.

- dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on
southern lake michigan.

- below normal temperatures and much lower humidity sunday
through tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1237 pm edt sat aug 22 2026

a typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers,
breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. a low pressure system is
located over northern lower michigan with its attendant cold front
positioned just west of in-15 currently. scattered showers and
isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially
along and east of i-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in
convective development as the front pushes east. can`t rule out an
isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest ohio) as there
is an area of 1500 j/kg mlcape and 700 j/kg dcape across
northern indiana and northwest ohio but the likelihood of
organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20
kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates.

in addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure
gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate
gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening.
northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. northwest cyclonic flow
and delta ts of ~14c (water temps ~24c, 10c at 850mb tonight)
should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with
scattered showers overnight into sunday morning in the vicinity
of lake michigan. showers should gradually increase in coverage
across northern indiana downwind of lake michigan into the
afternoon on sunday. it will be breezy again out of the
northwest on sunday and then light winds return monday and
tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. did bump up cloud cover
and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces
more lake effect clouds downwind of lake michigan than the nbm
picks up on.

dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast lake
michigan beaches and are expected to continue through sunday. a
beach hazards statement is in effect for la porte and berrien
counties through 11 pm edt sunday. high swim risks are expected both
days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. strong rip and
structural currents are also expected! if your weekend plans include
heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out
of the water!

a dry, continental airmass from central canada moves in later
sunday as high pressure builds across the midwest and great
lakes. much lower humidity and several days of slightly below
normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like
days sunday through tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew
points only in the low to mid 50s! get the pumpkin spice lattes
ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows monday and tuesday
morning will only be in the low 50s!

wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the
next chance for rain and storms. a similar setup, although not as
pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over
the great lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. at this
time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms
wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 102 pm edt sat aug 22 2026

mvfr to vfr conditions at both terminals today in the wake of a
cold frontal boundary that moved through earlier this morning.
scattered showers and storms have developed over the area and
did keep tempo mentioned for -tsra for kfwa through 20z sat as
and also put tempo for -shra for ksbn through 21z with
possibility for lake induced showers. light northwesterly winds
through the overnight hours before winds increase with gusts up
to around 20 kts after 15z sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through sunday evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through sunday evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 pm edt sat aug 22 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with low probability for
an isolated strong to severe storm.

- breezy and cooler conditions arrive sunday with scattered showers
through sunday night.

- mainly dry weather monday into tuesday with a warming trend. the
next chance of showers and storms is possible late in the day
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

a cold front passing across the area remains the focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. this is tied to an
amplifying upper trough inducing divergence aloft and deep forcing
along the frontal zone. this is enough forced ascent to produce high
coverage of convection, but instability remains a limiting factor to
the severe threat due to relatively cool surface temperatures and
slow diurnal recovery in the wake of morning convection and
persistent cloud cover. radar trends over the past hour suggest the
forcing is likely outpacing the recovery of instability, indicating
a shrinking window for stronger to severe storms. bulk wind shear of
30 kt remains the favorable parameter for some organized updrafts,
and will continue to monitor storm trends as the front works through
over the next couple hours. the main threat in any stronger
convection remains wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. portions of
shiawassee, livingston, and washtenaw counties received 2 to 3
inches of rain this morning, so these areas may also be susceptible
to localized ponding/flooding as the line of showers works through.
the surface front clears the area by around 6pm with weak
instability lagging behind to keep a spottier coverage of showers
and possibly a thunderstorm through this evening before forcing
clears out.

the trough driving the cold front will continue to amplify tonight
into sunday with an anomalously deep closed low developing all the
way up to 300mb. forecast ensemble mean 500mb heights sit about 2
standard deviations below climatology for this system, which stalls
just northeast of georgian bay into early next week. its downstream
placement will direct a steady feed of drier, cool air into the
great lakes during this period, sending temperatures well below
normal. highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s will be likely sunday
and monday. northwest wind will be breezy to around 25 to 30 mph
each day.

a strong vort max will dive southward directly across the area
sunday afternoon and evening, inducing higher lapse rates and a
diurnal flare-up of shower activity. soundings show respectable
depth to narrow cape to allow for a chance of thunderstorms, but
severe weather is not expected. highest coverage of showers is
favored target the thumb where early season lake effect processes
begin to come into play. by monday, precipitation chances drop off
and more sun is in store as gradual upper height rises commence.
thicknesses rebound as well, allowing a slight uptick in high temps.

a shortwave ridge passes over the region tuesday into early
wednesday as the upper low slowly exits east and another shortwave
trough works across central canada. the resultant high pressure
brings another dry day with a step up in high temps to around 80
degrees. flow organizes out of the southwest on wednesday as the
upstream wave works into the western great lakes. this advects in
higher moisture and a chance of showers and storms late in the day.
the associated cold front is slated to track through by thursday
morning but additional showers will be possible through the rest of
the day as the trough stalls in the vicinity.

&&

.marine...

ongoing passage of a cold front will continue to support a line of
showers and thunderstorms that will progress across the great lakes
for the remainder of the evening hours. any stronger thunderstorms
will be capable of producing localized wind gusts aoa 34 knots. wind
direction will quickly veer from south-southeast to northwest in the
wake of the front with cooler air supporting breezy conditions. a
prolonged window for these breezy conditions are expected through
tomorrow and a greater portion of the day on monday, with gusts on
the order of 20 to 30 knots. a longer fused small craft advisory
remains in effect for both wind gust concerns and for building wave
heights in and around the thumb given the sustained northwest flow.
otherwise, there will be a low chance for rain showers across lake
huron tomorrow afternoon and evening with a very low chance for
waterspout development. high pressure then builds in late monday and
settles in on tuesday, bringing lighter winds to the area.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1248 pm edt sat aug 22 2026

aviation...

ongoing strengthening of large scale forcing along an approaching
cold front will support additional shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon. despite some stabilization from early
morning convection, diurnal heating across western lower mi is
allowing instability to build to the west. this instability axis is
forecast to track across se mi this afternoon along the surface cold
front, igniting additional convection. thunderstorm chances will
decrease between 21z and 22z with the passage of the cold front.
there continues to be some indications that low clouds will develop
overnight/early sunday morning within the post frontal cold air
advection. low level mixing may be a limiting factor to coverage and
duration.

d21/dtw convection...additional clusters of showers/thunderstorms is
still forecast this afternoon, mainly between 18z and 22z. there is
a chance for some linear organization to the storms across the
airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon.

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today and sunday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt monday for
lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 am edt monday for
lhz422.

small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 10 am edt monday for
lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......am
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.