Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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495
fxus61 kcle 040000
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 pm est tue nov 3 2026

.what has changed...
rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing
a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.

2) an upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern
continuing into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as
a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure track east into the lower great lakes and ohio valley
region. moisture transport from the gulf will increase area
pwats on wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th
percentile for early november at regional sites. widespread
showers are expected to enter from the west wednesday morning
and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west
to east in the evening. can`t rule out a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms tomorrow as sbcape values may briefly increase to
a few hundred j/kg in the morning and early afternoon. severe
threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability
amount. overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50
inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts
of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of us-30.
additionally, a 40-50 llj will move overhead tomorrow and allow
for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 mph.

key message 2...
there will likely be a window of dry weather on thursday as the
trough lifts north before another trough sinks south thursday
night into friday. this secondary trough will lead to occasional
chances for showers downwind of lake erie through the weekend
and into early next week. cooler temperatures expected this
weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are observed out of the gate and are expected to
continue through tonight. a slug of moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front will bring a period of rain and lower
ceilings west to east across the area on wednesday. it will be a
gradual progression with rain reaching tol/fdy early wednesday
but not reaching eri/yng until after 21z (likely reaching cle by
18z). some mvfr vis restrictions are possible in the rain,
especially in the afternoon/evening when rain will be moderate
at times. the greater restriction will be ceilings...yng/eri may
hold a vfr ceiling until close to 0z, though everyone else
should fall to mvfr from west to east through the morning and
into the afternoon, with some ifr possible during the afternoon.
was a bit slower to bring down ceilings at cle than guidance
due to downsloping winds, though an mvfr ceiling should settle
in there after 18z with a 20-30% risk for ifr at cle.

winds will remain out of a southerly direction through the taf
period. speeds will generally be 5-10kt tonight, though may dip
a bit lighter early. speeds increase to 10-15kt on wednesday. a
40-50kt low-level jet will overspread northwest oh tonight and
gradually shift east across the area on wednesday. have llws
included at tol/fdy beneath that jet late tonight. included wind
gusts beneath the stronger jet on wednesday, though it will not
be well-mixed within the rain and we may be closer to llws
beneath the jet and within the steadier rain on wednesday.

outlook...vfr returns from west to east late wednesday night
into thursday behind a cold front. low pressure and a cold front
crossing through the region friday into saturday bring the next
potential round of non-vfr in rain showers/low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across lake erie today
into tomorrow morning. a 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead
the lower great lakes during the day tomorrow which may
increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots wednesday afternoon and
evening. given the southerly component, the highest wave heights
of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the
higher wind speeds. winds shift southwesterly behind a cold
front wednesday night into thursday before diminishing to 10-15
knots by thursday evening. winds turn northwesterly in the wake
of a trough friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally
between 10 and 20 knots. conditions, particularly in the central
basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sullivan
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
717 pm est tue nov 3 2026

.key messages...

- sporadic wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph are possible later this
evening into the early overnight hours. breezy conditions will
continue on wednesday.

- rain showers are expected to shift from west to east tonight
into wednesday.

- periods of lake enhanced rain showers are expected into the
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm est tue nov 3 2026

- gusty conditions this afternoon with winds 25-35 mph.

warm air advection driven by southerly flow has led to quite the
warm day across the michiana region and northwestern ohio this
afternoon with highs already in the low to mid 70s. mostly clear
skies combined with ample mixing may allow highs today to challenge
the daily record of 76f. regardless, it will feel more like late
summer than november across the area. increased mixing depth around
peak heating this afternoon will also tap into an approaching llj
with gusts as high as 35 mph, highest across northwest indiana into
southwest michigan.

- breezy conditions and rain showers expected tuesday night into
wednesday

water vapor imagery shows a robust trough across the middle
mississippi valley at present forecast to move into the region
tonight into wednesday. the surface reflection of this will be in
the form of a cold front crossing the area during the day, with
widespread showers out ahead of it. expect rain much of the day
wednesday given the slow moving nature of the front as the surface
low becomes vertically aligned with the parent trough. a dry slot
moving in later wednesday ends the rain showers, with northwest ohio
last to dry out in the evening. refs probabilistic guidance favors
less than 1/4" for most, with rainfall as high as 0.5" across our
southeast indiana counties into nw ohio.

- cooler with lake driven rain showers into the weekend

more robust cold air arrives with persistent troughing friday into
the weekend behind a cold frontal boundary. 850 mb temps fall to
near zero, with lake temps still in the mid teens. this will be
sufficient instability wise to generate lake effect rain showers
thursday night into friday. the trough and coldest mid-level air
will depart to the east saturday with northwest flow into early next
week. how much if any precipitation we receive if any will depend on
shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow as well as whether a
ridge across the central conus drives flow be more zonal for a
period early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 703 pm est tue nov 3 2026

vfr conditions will begin this forecast but should deteriorate
to mvfr late tonight into wednesday. strong low level flow will
continue this evening, and in particularly late evening into
the overnight hours as pre-frontal low level jet axis across
illinois shifts east. this should produce a period of llws
conditions being met at both ksbn/kfwa later this evening into
portions of the overnight. a vort lobe progressing through base
of larger scale upper trough should lift northeast to the
western great lakes overnight into wednesday am with a period of
some rain showers. a lull in these rain showers is possible for
a time wed am before additional scattered shower potential in
closer vicinity to the cold front from west to east during the
day. the current expectation is that axis of better pre-frontal
pooled moisture could result in mvfr cigs lifting north in the
09z-12z timeframe at ksbn and more likely later in the morning
at kfwa. breezy conditions are expected to persist into
wednesday afternoon with onset of low level cold advection.
mixed layer depths should remain shallow through this valid
period, but even shallow mixing should support wind gusts into
the 20 to 25 knot range.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...thomas
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 032332
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
632 pm est tue nov 3 2026

.key messages...

- mild conditions continue tomorrow with drizzle and light rain
likely.

- temperatures return to normal values to end the week. additional
rain showers likely late thursday into friday morning.

&&

.aviation...

strong anticyclonic vorticity advection is still ongoing across
southeast michigan as the region remains situated within high
amplitude upper level ridging. persistent subsidence is forecasted
to continue through this evening. strong thetae advection on +45
knot low level jet arrives after 10z with an axis of shower activity
and ifr conditions likely. dry slotting is expected for the midday
period with the potential for shower activity along the cold front
2124z. south to southwest winds wednesday of 25 to 30 knots.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm est tue nov 3 2026

discussion...

anomalously warm air mass with 850 mb temperatures around 12c holds
over the great lakes, and coupled with clear skies, have allowed
temperatures to push towards or into record values. upstream, water
vapor imagery highlights a strong mid-level wave progressing over
northern missouri stacked over a low pressure system situated across
the central plains. the adjacent strong low-level jet within the open
gulf setup has allowed for efficient moisture transport to take
place through the central conus and into the northern great lakes. as
low pressure progresses north and occludes, this will pivot the jet
structure and subsequent moisture across southern michigan, bringing
rain showers starting tomorrow morning. initial wave of
precipitation will be tied to the forcing along the nose of the jet
within the concurrent flow of gulf moisture which will briefly push
pw values to around 1.40", around 99.5th percentile for this time of
year. an elevated jet under enhanced theta-e will promote the
continuation of drizzle or rain showers through the day before a more
loosely organized line of showers moves through in the late evening
along a cold front.

drizzle or spotty coverage will wane in the wake of the cold front
as boundary layer heights increase and work to scour out some of the
low level moisture as a dry slot moves overhead. wrap around
moisture coupled with weaker moisture advection and diurnal heating
will bring return rain chances thursday, most favorable north of the
metro region with increasing probabilities closer to the tri- cities
and thumb. rain chances to then expand across all of se mi through
friday morning along a secondary cold front. strong thermal advection
will accompany the moisture tomorrow, supporting another round of
well above normal temperatures despite rain and copious cloud cover.
the passage of the cold fronts will see a major pattern shift
relative to the past several weeks as temperatures return to normal
values by friday and into the weekend. highs in the 50s and lows in
the 30s are expected along with breezy conditions with gusts around
25 to 30 mph. weak signal for any precipitation chances into early
next week as temperatures expected to stay around normal values.

marine...

low pressure deepens over the western great lakes through tonight
before occluding on wednesday, maintaining moderate south to
southeast wind across the area. the inbound warm air maintains a
degree of low-level stability over the lakes that will limit the
higher magnitude wind from mixing down. however, gusts to 20 kt will
be common through tonight, with a slight uptick expected on
wednesday. gusts as high as 25 to 30 kt are expected over the open
waters of lake huron wednesday afternoon and evening while shorter
fetch will limit gusts to the 20 to 25 kt range over the nearshore
waters. a small craft advisory has been issued for the thumb
shoreline where wave heights are forecast to build over 4 feet.
saginaw bay, lake st. clair, and western lake erie may see a brief
period of gusts in excess of 25 kt during this period, but
confidence is too low for an advisory at this time. a cold front
brings high coverage of light showers across the area late in the
day and into wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind
the front. the weakening low pressure slowly meanders across the
western great lakes on thursday while deeper mixing brings gusts to
25 or 30 kt across saginaw bay. a stronger cold front then tracks
southward across the region on friday. this brings gusty north and
northeast winds that shift northwest and weaken by saturday.
additional light rain will accompany this frontal passage.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am wednesday to midnight est wednesday
night for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.