Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
304
fxus61 kcle 061743
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1243 pm est fri mar 6 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing for a few stronger thunderstorms
saturday afternoon, particularly along and east of the i-71
corridor.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front
late saturday morning and afternoon. some storms could become
strong to severe, particularly along and east of the i-71
corridor between noon and 5 pm.

2) patches of dense fog will persist into mid-morning as a
stationary front remains in place across the area.

3) above average temperatures will continue through tuesday.
temperatures will return back to or slightly below normal by
late wednesday into thursday as a frontal system moves through
the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing late friday
night into saturday morning to our west, associated with a pre-
frontal trough ahead of an advancing cold front. the latest
thinking is that this convection will redevelop late saturday
morning along or near the i-71 corridor around noon, and quickly
move east and exit the area by 4 to 5 pm. a somewhat favorable
low- level environment will be in place east of the i-71
corridor by early afternoon, with surface dew points expected to
reach or exceed 60f, sw bulk shear values of around 40 knots,
and clockwise-curved 0-1km hodographs yielding 150 to 200 m2/s2
of srh. anticipate storm mode to be mostly linear with surging
bowing segments at times given the bulk shear vectors being
nearly parallel to the convection. thus, damaging wind and a
few embedded tornadoes are the primary hazards with any stronger
storms, aligning with the latest spc swody2 slight risk.

these types of scenarios with nocturnal convection redeveloping
in the late morning and early afternoon are always tricky and thus,
confidence in a more widespread severe threat in our area remains
on the lower side at this time. some additional limiting
factors for the event include poor mid-level lapse rates of
generally 6 c/km or less, low probabilities for mlcape to
exceed 1000 j/kg, and unfavorable hodographs above 1 km.

there will be some additional shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity along the immediate cold front in the late afternoon
and evening as it sweeps east through the area. however, in its
wake, the pre-frontal convection will result in a much less
favorable environment and limit the intensity of any showers or storms
that form along the front.

key message 2...
the latest satellite and surface observations across the region
depict a stationary front draped roughly west to east near the
us-30 corridor early this morning, with widespread low clouds
and patches of dense fog. will continue to monitor surface
observation trends over the next couple of hours to see if a
dense fog advisory is needed, particularly in the vicinity of
the stationary front near the us-30 corridor. fog should quickly
dissipate by mid to late morning as southerly winds increase in
response to a lifting warm front.

key message 3...
above average temperatures appear poised to persist through
early next week with periods of mainly 60s and 70s. for the most
part, temperatures should remain below record highs, though
some sites may get close, especially on monday when sunny skies
are expected. the latest model guidance indicates a stronger
frontal system will move east through the ohio valley and great
lakes on wednesday, ushering in another period of widespread
rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms. will need to monitor qpf
trends with this system with a subtle, but persistent signal in
the ensemble guidance for rainfall amounts to exceed 1 inch.
temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s behind the
front on thursday.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
terminals in ifr conditions still are awaiting a warm front to
move north of the area, and at that time, significant
improvement to the flight conditions are expected. southerly
surface flow commences in the wake of the warm front as well,
and into the overnight hours, llws will be an issue as the
surface winds get cut off from the stronger low level wind flow.
all terminals will be subject to this. take the llws out of the
forecast with sunrise and daytime heating/boundary layer mixing
occurs. timed some convective activity for the western terminals
as its arrival should be prior to 18z, and for cle, prior to 00z
sunday. cold front follows the convection, but beyond the scope
of this forecast.

outlook...as showers/storms exit saturday, non-vfr in low
ceilings expected saturday night.

&&

.marine...
the most impactful weather concerns for lake erie with this marine
update will be the areas of dense fog over the western half of the
basin. this weather impact from the poor and very low visibilities
will likely continue through late this morning/midday before a warm
front lifts through this afternoon. that surging warm front will
likely help clear out the lake fog from south to north later
today.

northeast winds of 10-15 knots across lake erie will continue
through much of today. the warm frontal passage across lake erie
late today will shift from a southeasterly to southerly flow 10 to
15 knots. by tonight and into saturday, winds will veer to become
southwesterly, increasing to 15-20 knots through saturday evening. a
cold front will sweep across the lake from west to east saturday
evening with westerly winds 10 to 15 knots saturday evening through
sunday night. a surface ridge of high pressure will build over the
upper ohio valley and lake erie saturday night through the end of
the weekend. the next weather system and developing area of low
pressure will track into the great lakes region monday into tuesday.
winds will increase from the southwest 15 to 20 knots sunday night
into monday. the next potential cold front will drop down from north
to south across the great lakes late monday through early tuesday
morning.

an active and rather unsettled weather pattern will continue to
bring elevated wind speeds periodically across lake erie next week.
although the lake remains mostly ice covered, the areas that are ice-
free and sizable breaks of the ice field will see periodically
waves increasings 2 to 5 feet. currently the these larger breaks in
the lake ice have been over the western basin. as temperatures
remain above average the next couple of days, the ice thickness and
coverage will continue to slowly decrease. the slightly stronger
southwesterly winds on saturday may also move around the ice this
weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez142>146-
162>166.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
473
fxus63 kiwx 061831
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
131 pm est fri mar 6 2026

.key messages...

- record or near record high temperatures this afternoon.

- scattered showers and storms (20-50%) this afternoon into this
evening, mainly north of us 24 corridor. a few storms could
produce small hail and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.

- a round of showers and storms (80%+) tracks through later
tonight into saturday morning. a few strong to severe storms
are possible with the threats of isolated wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph and marginally severe hail.

- dry weather returns for sunday and monday, but more showers
and storms expected for tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm est fri mar 6 2026

warm front nearing the mi border will continue to lift north this
afternoon and evening with fog giving way to near record warmth and
increasingly breezy southwest winds. will have to monitor chances
(20-50%) for a few showers/storms to clip areas mainly north of the
us 24 corridor late this afternoon/evening as a subtle mid level
impulse lifts into the western great lakes and trailing outflow from
upstream convection attempts to fold east into the lower great
lakes. overall forcing is weak, but ramping background flow and up
to 1000 j/kg of mlcape continues to hint at the low chance (marginal
svr risk / 5%) for an isolated strong-to-severe storm. somewhat
breezy and unseasonably mild the story otherwise into much of the
overnight with temperatures generally holding in the low-mid 60s.

better prospects for a round of showers and storms arrives later
tonight into saturday morning from west to east as the main upper
level trough lifts northeast toward the western/northern great lakes
sending a pre-frontal trough and moisture axis through. a
convectively induced shortwave could also enhance rain/thunder
coverage during this time, though expectations are for this incoming
convection to come through in a weakened state due to outpacing
stronger upper level support and unfavorable diurnal timing. with
that said, still cannot rule out a marginally strong to severe storm
given the pre-frontal 60f dewpoint air and strong background flow.
saturday afternoon will then feature the passage of the system cold
front with breezy/mild conditions and the chance (30-40%) for
renewed shower/iso storm development along the front. air mass will
likely be pretty worked over with limited instability for the cold
front limiting coverage and the severe threat.

sunday into much of next week will feature a transition to quasi-
zonal flow with several strong upper level jet streaks traversing
the northern tier of the lower 48. sunday and monday are a couple of
dry days with temps likely recovering up to near 70f early next
week. ensemble and deterministic model solutions then continue to
point to later tuesday into wednesday morning for the next good
chance for a period of rain and embedded thunder as buckle in the
jet sends a decent frontal wave through. cooler, yet still above
normal, weather then to follow behind this system for the second half
of the week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1225 pm est fri mar 6 2026

visibilities have improved some at the terminals, but low
ceilings persist causing ifr conditions. confidence is still low
on if rain and storms will impact the terminals this afternoon,
but the best chances will be at sbn after 20z. southerly winds
will become increasingly gusty today ahead of an incoming cold
front; gusts as high as 25-30 kts will be possible this evening
and into the early overnight hours. some llws will also be
possible ahead of an approaching cold front overnight into
saturday morning. there will then be a better chance for showers
and thunderstorms after 10z and into saturday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
896
fxus63 kdtx 061742
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1242 pm est fri mar 6 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog this afternoon with patchy dense fog at times.

- scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with a marginal
(1/5) risk for severe weather mainly between 3pm and 10pm. damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. an isolated weak
tornado cannot be ruled out.

- warm and windy on saturday with a marginal risk for severe storms
along a cold front. southwest gusts of 35 to 45 mph during the day.

- above average temperatures are expected through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

aviation conditions are dominated by the in/oh front and its
connection to midwest low pressure this afternoon through tonight.
the primary surface low is slow to move northward which leaves the
front subject to delayed northward progress through lower mi due to
cool easterly flow off the eastern great lakes. this combination
prolongs the duration of lifr/ifr ceiling and visibility across
lower mi while showers and a rumble of elevated thunder move west to
east over the region. midwest low pressure finally moves far enough
north to pull the warm front into the northern great lakes late
tonight leading to rapid warm sector improvement across se mi into
saturday morning. observations this afternoon are clear to scattered
vfr toward the ohio river as evidence of warm sector improvement,
although some form of llws/low level jet driven mvfr stratus is
likely to fill in toward sunrise followed by surface wind gusts
reaching into the 30 kt range. there is also a late night break in
shower/storm activity until after 12z when and band of convection is
expected to move in ahead of the inbound midwest cold front.
showers/storms reach mbs around 13z and then fill in to the south
and east during the morning.

for dtw... persistent lifr ceiling/visibility is the primary weather
concern this afternoon and evening. showers also increase across the
area while thunderstorm coverage remains low overhead or directed
father north through the evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and tonight.

* high for ceiling and visibility below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm this
afternoon and evening.

* low for thunderstorms at dtw this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 943 am est fri mar 6 2026

update...

enhanced mid level theta e convergence along the nose of 50 knot
inflow is driving the region of showers and scattered thunderstorms
across se wi/nrn il. the strongest convergence will slide across
northern lower mi this afternoon and evening. ample moisture
advection/theta e convergence across se mi will sustain relatively
high pops from mid/late afternoon into tonight, highest across the
north. the 12z dtx sounding and area observations indicate a
formidable sfc stable layer courtesy of the east-southeast flow off
the lakes, maintaining a cool and moisture laden boundary layer.
this will keep any afternoon/early evening convection elevated,
limiting any thunderstorm hazards to hail. strengthening low level
flow during the course of the evening into the overnight will
gradually drive the warm sector into se mi. this will increase the
chances for the development of storms rooted in the boundary layer.
the strong wind fields will pose a low risk of severe convection
overnight, limited by weak sfc based instability. a forecast update
will be issued simply for minor adjustments in temps and pops this
afternoon into tonight.

prev discussion...
issued at 331 am est fri mar 6 2026

discussion...

pervasive fog and low stratus continue to shroud the area this
morning as a warm front sits a few counties south of the state line.
grungy conditions persist through much of the day, with increasing
sw flow and moisture advection atop the inversion working to
generate some pockets of drizzle as well. a shortwave will track
across the western and northern great lakes today into tonight,
inducing deeper southerly flow to send the warm front northward.
model guidance continues to advertise a backed component to the
surface wind through the day, which presents the typical early
spring scenario where the cold marine layer maintains a stable
profile locally while the warm front lifts northward across western
lower mi. temps look to be locked in the 40s and lower 50s for most
of se mi during the day, but western areas - especially parts of
lenawee county - could reach the lower 60s dependent on how far
north the front lifts. a more convincing push of sw flow allows the
front to clear the area during the evening, and the daily max temp
is likely to occur after sunset.

several windows for showers and thunderstorms exist in the next 48
hours. the first arrives this afternoon along the nose of the
llj/theta-e surge. plan view shows the bulk of unbalanced flow
targeting western and northern lower mi, but enough for a 90% pop in
the saginaw valley tapering down to around 50 to 60% for the rest of
the area. additional convection along the surface frontal passage is
expected this evening as moisture advection ramps up within the
strengthening llj. mid-level lapse rates increase with mucape to
around 750 j/kg and effective shear 35+ kt supporting a marginal
severe hail threat, and isolated damaging gusts will be possible if
storms become rooted in the surface layer. highest potential for
this to occur is around the saginaw valley where several models inch
a tongue of sbcape in late. the latest day 1 outlook from spc also
indicates a 2% probability for a brief, weak tornado which is
warranted with the increasing low-level helicity occurring along the
passing warm front. potential for training storms also exists, with
href showing a 30% chance for stripes of 1"+ rainfall in the saginaw
valley and thumb.

50+ kt llj passes overhead on saturday as a deepening low zips
across the straits, leading to a windy day. boundary layer moisture
and morning pre-frontal showers/storms look to limit mixing depths
to a degree, but there remains support for gusts of 35 to 45 mph as
we reside in the warm sector. still some variance regarding when the
cold front pushes through, which will affect high temps, peak gusts,
and convective vigor along the front. the bulk of hi-res guidance
advertises fropa late afternoon to evening suggesting at a marginal
threat for damaging wind gusts given the kinematics overhead and
time for sufficient sbcape to develop through the day. in this
scenario highs have a chance to reach the mid to upper 60s.

another breezy day on sunday with only a slight step down in
temperatures as cold advection is weak behind the saturday front. a
series of systems track across northern ontario sunday into monday
with deep layer southwest flow across the great lakes bringing
another warming trend through early next week. a frontal wave passes
through the southern great lakes and ohio valley late tuesday into
wednesday, offering relatively high confidence in additional precip.
what remains uncertain is the thermal setup, evidenced by nbm
interquartile range of max temperatures ranging between 50 and 70
degrees. the strength of this low will govern how far north the warm
front lifts and whether any surface based thunderstorms will be
possible, or whether an area of mixed precip affects northern
portions of the area. much cooler air will settle in behind this
system with drier conditions likely on thursday.

marine...

lighter southeasterly winds and drier conditions hold through the
afternoon as the region resides between systems. stronger low
pressure, relative to thursday, tracks out of the plains and into
the northern great lakes saturday. in advance, the attendant warm
front lifts through the central great lakes late this evening
supporting another round of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms with southwesterly winds developing post-front
tonight. while strengthening warm advection results in 50-55kt flow
only a couple thousand feet off the surface, magnitude of the
airmass maintains strong thermal stability over the lakes keeping
winds at or below 30kts. system`s cold front crosses the region
second half of the day saturday generating wider spread showers and
scattered thunderstorms, particularly towards the southern great
lakes. an isolated strong to severe storm is possible over these
southern waters. there is a couple hour window along/immediately
following the front where west/west-northwest gusts could near entry-
level gales. that said, while the gradient is supportive of stronger
gusts, trailing airmass is not particularly cold relative to the
current lake temps resulting in only slightly unstable to neutral
thermal profiles acting as an inhibiting factor in peak wind speed
potential. confidence remains too low to warrant a gale watch.
southwesterly flow redevelops sunday as low pressure slides over
northern ontario, though renewed warm advection again limits winds
at or below 30kts.

hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as
a warm front lifts across the state, then additional showers and
storms are likely on saturday ahead of and along a cold front. storm
total rainfall amounts are forecast to range between 0.25" and
0.75", although potential exists for areas that see multiple
thunderstorms to receive over 1.00". rises on area rivers are likely
and some may reach action stage if these higher amounts occur.
ponding of water on roadways is also possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...dense fog advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense fog advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
update.......sc
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.