Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
718 am edt sat aug 1 2026

.what has changed...
the severe weather and flash flooding potential for sunday continues
to trend slightly more favorable but will need to see how the
weather today progresses before considering flood watches.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of rain with some thunderstorms are expected
through sunday. heavy rainfall will be possible at times with some
limited flash flooding potential on sunday. strong to severe storms
are also possible sunday afternoon.

2) daily, scattered rain chances and near normal temperatures are
expected next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a low pressure system approaching the region today will be the
culprit in producing showers and storms this weekend with heavy
rainfall and strong to severe storm potential both on the table.
showers will start scattered on saturday with the main,
vertically stacked surface low remaining well west along the
mississippi river. some mid-level vorticity advection will help
support some occasional showers today ahead of the low but
rainfall should be relatively light today for those that see
anything. the main show will start tonight as the low advances
east and additional moisture enters the region. forecast
soundings across northern ohio show pw values over 2 inches
tonight, which means that any rain that does occur will be
heavy, efficient rain. any rain that develops will be moving
south to north with some speed but if recurring rain trains over
the same areas, then there will be flooding concerns tonight,
mainly in northwest ohio.

the trends for sunday for heavy rainfall and strong to severe
storms is going up with this forecast package. the low will pass
to the south of the forecast area on sunday. however, a
deformation band of precipitation will be on the north side of
this low, which will be well supported by the left exit region
of one upper level jet and the right entrance region of another
upper level jet. this broader support should allow for
widespread coverage of rain across the region on sunday with
efficient rainfall rates and have a higher qpf forecast to
reflect these concerns. it would not be surprising for most
folks to get at least one inch of rain this weekend but
recurring rain episodes for any location would open up the
potential for multiple inches of rain and an increased risk for
flash flooding. on the severe threat, the low pressure system
and upper level jet support are indicative of a decently sheared
environment that could allow for strong to severe storms to
develop. the main concern for severe storms will be the
instability. rain and clouds across the region may limit the
overall instability in the region and in turn the severe
potential. however, there are hints that there could be a break
in shower activity on sunday morning, especially for the eastern
half of the forecast area. if this break does materialize, then
the severe potential for sunday will continue to trend upward.
the main storm concerns for sunday will be strong to damaging
wind gusts and even a low end concern for a tornado.

as of this morning, the area is delineated in a wpc slight risk
for excessive rainfall for today and sunday and an spc marginal
risk for severe weather for sunday. there is potential for a
flood watch to be needed across the area, depending on how the
rain evolves today/tonight.

key message 2...
the upper trough that will move through the region this weekend
will amplify sunday night into monday and eventually form an
upper level cut off low over the tennessee valley. this feature
will meander over the ohio valley next week and have enough lift
to allow for daily rain chances on monday and tuesday. this low
will get absorbed by an upper trough entering the region on
wednesday. this upper trough will support a surface trough
across the region, which should allow for additional rain
chances on wednesday, thursday, and friday. none of the days
next week will be a washout, but there will be scattered rain on
the scope that could allow for a brief impact. temperatures
should be near normal in the 80s, perhaps slightly cooler if
there is more rain/cloud activity on a given day.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
predominately vfr conditions will persist for much of today
ahead of showers and thunderstorms that are forecast to push
into the area beginning this afternoon and persisting into
sunday. within these storms through this evening, visibilities
may be briefly reduced to mvfr in the most developed storms. as
the low pressure driving this shift in weather becomes more
centered near ohio, ceilings are expected to gradually fall from
vfr to ifr by the end of this period. the exception may be keri
which may linger in mvfr. overall, widespread vfr conditions
are expected to gradually diminish to ifr by the end of this
period as low pressure moves east.

southeast winds tonight of 5 knots or less will gradually
increase today to be sustained at 5-10 knots. local gusts up to
20 knots are possible across western terminal through this
evening. near the end of the period, winds will gain a more
easterly component but remain 5-10 knots.

outlook...occasional non-vfr in showers and thunderstorms
tonight through sunday night. scattered showers and
thunderstorms with potential for non-vfr continue monday through
wednesday, primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
low pressure centered over illinois will continue to move east today
into tomorrow, moving just south of the lake erie lakeshore which
will keep the entire basin north of the center of the system. given
the positioning of lake erie in relation to the low, winds today
will generally be from the southeast at 5-10 knots before gaining a
more east-northeast component tonight. as winds shift to this
position late today into tonight they will also increase to 10-20
knots with the strongest winds expected in the western basin. this
will result in waves building to 2-4 feet by sunday morning. this
period may need a very brief small craft advisory, but given a bit
of uncertainty in the timing of the low have opted to not issue this
morning. as the center of the low shifts east on sunday, winds will
become more north-northeast and persist at 15-20 knots across the
lake into monday. this stretch of onshore flow may result in waves
of 3-5 feet building across the western and central basins. with
that direction as well, rip currents may be a concern along beaches
in these areas. will have to monitor future model guidance to
determine the need for any marine headlines. by monday, high
pressure begin to nudge back into the area, allowing for calm marine
conditions to return across lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1104 am edt sat aug 1 2026

.key messages...

- chances (50-90 percent)for showers and storms through the
weekend, with the better chances tapering off from northwest
to southeast sunday afternoon into monday morning. heavy rain,
gusty winds, and lightning are expected within any storms.
localized flooding is possible, particularly saturday night
into sunday. rain totals in excess of 2 inches are expected
for some areas, and possibly greater than 4 inches in areas
with more persistent rainfall or storm activity.

- there is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms
this afternoon and evening in indiana and ohio, generally
south of us 30. the primary threat with any stronger storms
would be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

- dangerous swimming conditions are expected at lake michigan
beaches along the la porte county, in and berrien county, mi
shoreline. life- threatening waves and currents are expected,
especially sunday. a beach hazards statement is in effect. for
details, visit www.weather.gov/greatlakes/beachhazards

&&

.update...
issued at 1047 am edt sat aug 1 2026

near term forecast concern is on heavy rain potential and
isolated severe threat.

an impressive low level theta-e ridge is building across the
area this morning downstream of a mid/upper low centered across
west central illinois. this theta-e ridge will begin to take on
more of a nw-se orientation later this morning/early afternoon
due to cyclonic flow associated with this system. a band of
showers marking the eastward advance of this low level theta-e
ridge have had some impressive brief rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour with a pocket of 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts. a
dry slot has pushed in behind this lead advective forcing band,
but convection is expected to fill in this afternoon/early
evening as upper vorticity advection increases and as modest low
level jet helps advect a 700-1200 j/kg mlcape axis northward to
roughly the us 24 corridor. track of mid/upper level system will
eventually support deformation forced rain showers tonight into
sunday morning. this leads to some concern for localized areas
experiencing very heavy rainfall amounts, particularly given
high efficiency rainfall expected with high pwats/deep warm
cloud depths/strong low level moisture convergence. while
uncertainty remains with how extensive flood threat will be for
later today into sunday, the potential certainly exists for
isolated areas to receive rainfall amounts in excess of 4
inches, particularly where more prolonged deformation sets up.
will likely go ahead and include all of in counties in a flood
watch valid from later this afternoon through sunday afternoon.
the period of greatest concern may by this evening through
daybreak sunday as deformation axis sharpens.

in addition to hydro threat, no change in previous forecast
thinking to the severe weather potential today. a marginal risk
of severe weather (mainly iso wind) remains intact roughly
south of us 24 where weak instability/moderate shear environment
should set up. confidence remains quite low however, with
magnitude of instability being a limiting factor. low level flow
is backed to the north of sfc reflection of this system for
areas south of us 24, so cannot completely rule out some iso
tornado potential, but this a very low probability and likely
maximized south/southeast of local area.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 620 am edt sat aug 1 2026

the occluding surface low responsible for our active weather this
weekend is centered over southeastern ia/nw il as of this writing,
with a broad shield of rain showers and isolated storms extending
from up near milwaukee southeastward into indy and ky/tn. a 500mb
trough encompasses the great lakes region, with the closed
low/associated speed max near the four corners. ongoing steady rain
showers or drizzle extends from from michigan city, in into marion,
in and is lifting northeast with time. beyond that, light east-
northeast flow persists across the forecast area, with some light
shower activity in lower mi and near lima, oh.

as the trough aloft/closed low digs southward into southern
in/ky through sunday morning, the surface low drifts eastward,
centering around ind by 2 am edt tonight (models still don`t
quite have the exact location pinned down). shower activity will
become more widespread through the afternoon into tonight as
the better upper level forcing arrives and several waves of
precip rotating around the surface low to our s-se move through.
much of the guidance has a persistent/recurrent rainfall along
and south of us 30 today into tonight as the low pivots, and
then by sunday a robust deformation zone extending from the low
near indy (depends on the model) up into southeast lower mi. the
nam really latches onto this, and it appears to be the furthest
north of the solutions (centers low from indy to near
logansport, in). this keeps the axis from logansport into
hillsdale through much of sunday. there is still lower
confidence as to whether this feature develops as robustly as
indicated, and if it sinks southeastward with time (thus moving
the precip axis and distributing the rain) or stays in generally
the same location through sun. if it stays stationary like the
nam depicts, some areas that see repeated thunderstorms or heavy
rain could end up with 4 inches of rain or more. after a review
of the latest guidance with the neighboring offices, decided
not to issue a flood watch given there are still questions as to
where the band/earlier showers and storms set up and if they
move or stay relatively stationary into sunday.

there is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening in indiana and ohio, generally south of us 30.
the primary threat with any stronger storms would be damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph. models suggest around 500-1000 j/kg of surface cape
this afternoon, with 0-6 km bulk shear around 25-40 knots
along/south of us 30, which is plenty to work with in terms of
stronger storm potential.

otherwise, low chance pops (20-40 percent) through the work week,
with highs in the 70s, low-mid 80s.


high swim risk and beach hazards statement for la porte county,
in and southern berrien county, mi from late this afternoon into
monday morning. winds strengthen out of the northeast at 15 to
25 knots and become more northerly through sunday night. waves
of 1-2 feet today will build to around 3-5 feet by late this
afternoon and evening (highest near new buffalo, mi into
michigan city, in). on sunday, waves will build to 4 to 7 feet
by the late afternoon.

northern berrien county, mi (including silver beach) will see
lower wave heights today, generally 1 to 2 feet building to
around 3 feet by late this afternoon/evening. waves linger in
the 2-3 ft range until late sunday afternoon, where they build
to 3 to 5 feet. have a moderate swim risk for today (into early
sunday), and then a high swim risk for sunday afternoon into
monday morning. the beach hazards statement for this county is
in effect starting late sunday afternoon.

expect a strong southward flowing longshore current to develop
with the north-northeast flow later today into tonight and
persist through sunday, in addition to strong structural
currents (particularly on the north sides of piers and
breakwalls). rip currents are expected, especially where wave
heights are greatest and flow is more northerly. if visiting the
beaches this weekend, monitor the beach forecast.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 726 am edt sat aug 1 2026

a vigorous vort max and a stacked low pressure system moves
southeastward to southern in from western il, which is a slow
pace. a theta-e plume pivots eastward especially through
southern parts of the forecast area bringing the potential for
flooding as well as reduced flight conditions. mvfr conditions
collapse to low mvfr and ifr after 00z tonight. given cloud
cover, felt more comfortable including showers, but not as
comfortable including thunderstorm potential. it is possible
that mvfr visby dips into ifr if thunderstorms do materialize.
heaviest rain moves through this afternoon and tonight before
slowly departing through the day sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 5 pm edt /4 pm cdt/ this afternoon through
sunday afternoon for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
beach hazards statement from 4 pm cdt this afternoon through
monday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 5 pm edt this afternoon through
monday morning for miz277.
beach hazards statement from sunday afternoon through monday
morning for miz177.
marine...small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...mcd
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1253 pm edt sat aug 1 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast
today and sunday.

- heavy rainfall is likely somewhere over northern indiana,
southeast lower michigan or northwest ohio tonight and sunday
morning. there is still uncertainty in where this axis will develop.
it could reach as far north as ann arbor to port huron and bring
flooding concerns, especially over urban areas.

- dry weather returns on monday, but it may become unsettled again
for parts of next week with chances of showers. temperatures will be
close to average for early august.

&&

.aviation...

a large low-pressure system sits over the western ohio valley this
afternoon, with light easterly winds over southeast michigan drawing
in some drier mid-level air. nonetheless, diurnal instability will
likely trigger showers and possible thunderstorms, with the best
chance near the i-69/m-59 corridors. otherwise, mainly just some
high based light showers around. heavier shower activity will result
in lower cigs (mvfr) for a period. tonight, the focus shifts to the
southern tafs as the main moisture plume from the ohio valley storm
system reaches the southern michigan border. a prolonged period of
showers and at least mvfr cigs expected for dtw-yip-det late tonight
into sunday morning. embedded thunderstorms will be possible just
about any time during this window, but are highlighted between 10-
14z with a prob30. despite fewer showers across northern tafs
tonight/sunday morning, mvfr cigs are also likely to develop with
the persistent flow off southern lake huron. northeast winds with
gusts aoa 20 knots are expected during the day on sunday.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance of thunderstorms from
late afternoon through the evening, with a continued chance tonight
within an area of heavier showers that continues through sunday
morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less late today and this evening.
moderate to high tonight and sunday.

* low for thunderstorms through taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 am edt sat aug 1 2026

discussion...

this weekend`s weather will be dictated by a low pressure system
tracking from central il this morning into the ohio valley on
sunday. this occluded system is currently being driven by a closed
500mb low slowly drifting across the midwest. by sunday, an
amplifying upper air pattern sends a deepening canadian trough
southward across the great lakes which interacts with the wave and
causes it to stretch toward the eastern great lakes. as the system
works through, expect increasing humidity and coverage of showers
that peak tonight into sunday before waning by sunday evening as the
moisture is pulled east.

the 01.00z dtx raob revealed a deep layer of dry air up to 470mb
that has prevented much more than virga thus far as upper moisture
continues to wrap around the low upstream. however, there is a more
concerted push of low to mid level moisture convergence working into
the saginaw valley that is bringing scattered showers early this
morning. this area will remain favored for additional showers
through the rest of the morning, with radar presentation indicating
transient moderate to heavier rates at times. areas farther south
and east should should generally see fewer showers until better
moisture advection begins to arrive later this afternoon.

several waves of ascent will spread across the area this afternoon
through tonight, then into sunday as the interaction of the two
waves squeezes a narrow corridor of pva overhead. this forcing
paired with increasing low level moisture and convergence will bring
the highest coverage of showers and embedded storms. there will be
an increasing threat for localized heavy rainfall as the environment
will support efficient rainfall processes. deep saturation and moist
adiabatic lapse rates, warm cloud depth around 12 kft, elevated
instability of 500 to 1000 j/kg, and pwat near the 90th percentile
at 1.75" all support pockets of heavy rain where showers occur. weak
veering flow through much of the column produces corfidi upshear
vectors of 15 kt or less, indicating slow storm motion and potential
for training/backbuilding convection.

timing and placement of convection continues to carry high
uncertainty, but signal is emerging for a flare-up near the i-69
corridor this afternoon. this occurs along a nearly stationary
trough developing on the northeast side of the low, and may pose a
threat for rainfall over 1 inch within a 1 to 3 hour window. the
higher probability for a subtle heavy rainfall (shars) type event
currently looks to target areas closer to the low center in northern
indiana, with support from latest hi-res qpf output. however, this
potential may migrate northeast toward the metro detroit to port
huron vicinity overnight into sunday morning as the northeast
quadrant of the system and the associated mesoscale deformation/fgen
forcing and moisture convergence track through. with the
shifting/stretching character of the low on sunday, confidence
remains low in these finer details which still may not be resolved
well in guidance. debated the need for a flood watch for the urban
corridor which would be the most susceptible to heavy rainfall, but
preference is to allow 12z and 18z guidance and morning trends to be
evaluated in the decision. latest ensemble qpf probabilities through
sunday remain supportive of rainfall on the order of 0.25" to 0.75"
for much of the se mi, with potential for 2+" in locations that see
training convection. that being said, there is also a non-zero
chance that certain areas receive very little rainfall given the
scale of convection.

drier air begins to arrive on sunday as high pressure builds in from
the north, but showers may continue well into the afternoon for the
eastern forecast area before tapering off by sunday evening. the
high pressure takes residence overhead on monday, promoting dry and
seasonable conditions. the southern portion of the weekend system
will get pinched off into a cutoff low early next week, with latest
guidance carrying it farther south into the tennessee valley and
southern appalachians. this supports dry conditions into tuesday as
well. moisture with this low eventually begins to migrate northeast,
possibly clipping the area on wednesday with diurnally driven
showers. the next cold front works across the region late thursday
into friday with additional chances of showers and storms.

marine...

lighter winds through the early morning will slowly increase and
turn northeasterly saturday as a low pressure system over the upper
mississippi river valley shifts eastward towards the ohio valley.
northeast winds will increase through the day, which will lead to
building waves through the saginaw bay during the afternoon and into
sunday. a small craft advisory may be needed during this time period
for saginaw bay and nearshore zones of the thumb. chances for rain
and thunderstorms will also continue through the remainder of the
weekend as the low and its associated frontal features push across
the region.

hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are
forecast today into sunday as a low pressure system slowly tracks
into the ohio valley. the increasingly moisture laden environment
will support moderate to heavy rainfall rates within any showers,
and there is potential for training or backbuilding showers.
relatively high confidence exists in rainfall totals between 0.25"
and 0.75". there is the potential for localized areas to receive in
excess of 2.00", but confidence is low on the placement of these
higher amounts. this may lead to flooding concerns this weekend,
particularly in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...tf
marine.......ss
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.