Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
058
fxus61 kcle 261731
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
131 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

.what has changed...
increased the sky cover and duration this morning into the early
afternoon hours due to persistent low stratus that will not be able
to mix out very easily.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure influences continue for today with northeasterly flow
off lake erie keeps the western lakeshore areas and inland on the
cool side.

2) a cold front comes through tuesday with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of it monday night, and a prolonged cool down with a cutoff
upper level low pressure system for the end of the week and into
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low level moisture continues to be trapped under a stout subsidence
inversion this morning, and without the ability to reach
temperatures required to mix out the inversion, this should prove to
be very difficult to erode. this is likely to happen after 16z
today, and possibly closer to 19z. the 925mb northeasterly flow
continues to advect moisture in to the region underneath this
inversion and shows the source of that moisture drying up in the 18z
time frame. cool weather expected to persist today, especially
downwind of the northeasterly fetch off chilly lake erie that will
make 60f a difficult reach for the western half of the lakeshore
cities, and inland a couple counties in northwest ohio. away from
this chilly source region, late sun should be enough te get
temperatures into the upper 60s in the mid to late afternoon hours.
the forecast is dry through monday, but surface winds turning
southerly brings back warmer conditions ahead of a cold front that
will bring renewed convection chances monday night.

key message 2...
mid/upper level ridge exits late monday into monday night, replaced
by southwest flow aloft. low level winds will be on the increase as
this frontal system approaches, and instability should be on the
increase as well. prefrontal surface trough monday night likely to
be the first wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms, then
followed by another wave of showers and isolate thunderstorms
with the cold front itself tuesday. back into the 50s for
several days in the wake of the cold front from midweek into
next weekend as an upper level low pressure system drops into
the great lakes and becomes cut off east of the cwa. low end
pops in the cold pool convection setup. possible frost/freeze
issues under this upper level low for the end of the week and
into the weekend.ason.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
dry weather and mainly vfr are expected through 18z/mon as a
surface ridge continues to affect our region, but exits slowly
e`ward. our regional surface winds veer gradually from ne`erly
to se`erly while remaining around 5 to 15 knots through the taf
period. these winds should gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times
after ~14z/mon. note: lingering and widespread stratocumuli
will evolve into scattered to broken cumuli through ~21z/sun as
the boundary layer continues to destabilize via daytime warming
and undergoes convective mixing. the cumuli are expected to
dissipate between ~21z and ~23z/sun as the boundary layer
stabilizes via nocturnal cooling. ceilings associated with these
stratocumuli and cumuli will be in the range of ~1kft to ~3kft
agl.

outlook...periods of showers with non-vfr conditions are expected
monday night through this friday. scattered thunderstorms are
expected monday night through early wednesday evening.

&&

.marine...
high pressure to our north will track eastward today and exit
the region monday. waves of 1-3 feet are expected with
northeasterly winds around 10 to 15 knots. patchy fog is
expected over lake erie through late this morning as colder and
fairly moist air crosses the lake.

monday night through wednesday morning low pressure will track
northeastward from the upper ms valley to hudson bay. winds will
shift from easterly/southeasterly at 15 to 25 knots to
southerly/southwesterly at 10 to 20 knots. waves 3 to 6 feet are
expected monday night into tuesday morning, then subside
gradually to 3 feet or less the rest of tuesday through
wednesday morning. a small craft advisory may be required.

a trough will linger over lake erie wednesday before high
pressure builds across the north-central united states
wednesday night through thursday. westerly to northwesterly
winds 5 to 15 knots and waves 1-3 feet are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...jaszka
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
409
fxus63 kiwx 261837
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
237 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy monday with highs near 80 degrees. scattered rain
and non-severe storms could occur around midday and into the
afternoon.

- severe weather is possible with a second round of storms later monday,
mainly between 8 pm edt monday to 2 am edt tuesday west of in
15. damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main
threats.

- heavy rainfall monday night may lead to isolated instances of
areal flooding and minor rises on area rivers.

- cooler air is ahead next week to begin may! highs only in the
50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s will be possible
by the middle to end of next week. near freezing temperatures
at night may damage early season crops and plants!

&&

.discussion...
issued at 233 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across much
of northwest and north-central indiana on monday, although
uncertainty remains. a warm front is expected to lift northward
through our area monday afternoon, with breezy southerly winds and
waa boosting highs to at least the low to mid 70s. southerly low
level moisture return from the gulf will also boost dewpoints into
the low 60s monday evening. we will be closely monitoring remnant
convection that comes out of the missouri/iowa/illinois overnight
and tomorrow morning, as where this tracks and how much it holds
together will influence the environment over our area on monday.
most hi-res model guidance brings in a midday/early afternoon round
of scattered showers and storms to our forecast area leftover from
the remnant missouri/illinois mcs to our west. given that
instability will be near zero, any storms associated with round 1
should be non-severe. this convection may disrupt the peak heating
hours and how much (if any) airmass recovery occurs monday afternoon
and evening. unfortunately, hi-res model guidance diverges a lot on
a solution for on what happens after round 1. additional development
of storms monday evening will be conditional on what occurs with
round 1. some models still bring in a potent line of strong to
severe storms in for round 2 monday evening and others depict
that round 1 completely depletes our forecast area of any severe
potential later on in the day. spc has maintained the slight
risk for severe weather mainly west of in 15 for our area, which
i do think is warranted. this is a low confidence but high
ceiling event, especially for our far western counties. even if
midday convection does stabilize our environment somewhat,
shear and helicity remain impressive monday evening. forecast
soundings point towards potential for a high shear, low cape
setup. veering wind profiles monday night yield impressive
looking hodographs, especially west of us 31. while 40-50 kts of
bulk shear is often sufficient for severe weather, some hi-res
model guidance has 70+ kts of bulk shear monday evening when the
llj ramps up. breezy southerly winds at the surface and lots of
vertical wind shear will also allow for impressive 0-1 srh
values of up to 500 m2/s2! despite a loss of instability after
sunset (only 500 j/kg sbcape), there does appear to be decent
potential for severe weather given the high magnitudes of shear
and helicity that could be present west of us 31. the main
threats will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes,
with a lesser threat for hail due to waning instability. there
is also potential for heavy rain and efficient rainfall rates
over 2"/hr. with pwats near 1.50" (which is around the 99th
percentile climatology for april 27th), ample low level
moisture, and forecast sounding depicting a deep, warm cloud
layer, flooding will be possible late in the day on monday into
monday night. total qpf across our forecast area is expected to
be between 0.50" to 1.50" by early tuesday morning. heavy
rainfall may lead to isolated instances of areal flooding and
minor rises on area rivers.

an unseasonably cool airmass will filter into the great lakes region
by the middle to end of next week as an upper level low develops
over the northeast. with dominant northerly flow, the climate
prediction center has high probabilities (50-70%) for cooler
than normal temperatures by the end of april into early may.
highs only in the 50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s
will be possible by the middle to end of next week. the growing
season has already begun for our forecast area as of mid-april.
near freezing temperatures at night may damage early season
crops and plants! frost/freeze headlines may be needed,
especially thursday and friday nights.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 136 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

mid level ridging remains overhead as surface high pressure ejects
eastward overnight into monday. this morning`s mvfr ceilings
scattered out midday into the early afternoon allowing a return to
vfr conditions. east winds with sustained winds around 10 kts remain
across the area today, weakening to just below 10 kts around sunrise
monday morning. this scenario of east winds often brings in some
sort of overnight flight condition impacts, including stratus or
fog, especially in the case of recently fallen rain, which has
occurred over the last couple of days. with those 10 kt sustained
winds, this would likely lean stratus if something does happen.
right now, models are devoid of those impacts, though, unless you
look at the sref, which does hint at some sort of combination of
fog/stratus monday morning. given the lack of confidence of this
occurring, will leave this chance out of these tafs.

otherwise, thunderstorms are also forecast to reach the sbn area
towards the end of the taf period. the best chance for severe
weather is later monday into monday night, but we`ll have to see if
we can recover instability for stronger storms during that time. at
this point, will leave this chance out of the tafs.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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063
fxus63 kdtx 261634
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1234 pm edt sun apr 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions through tonight.

- warming trend tomorrow with dry conditions during the day.

- showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow night into tuesday.

- stretch of below average temperatures latter half of the week.

&&

.aviation...

mvfr ceilings developed near dtw this morning, but as boundary layer
depths continue to increase, dry air is expected to prevail and
support clear to mostly clear skies through this evening. light
easterly flow continues through this evening, veering southeasterly
tonight. low chance of mvfr clouds developing 7-13z as low level
moisture slowly increases. otherwise, just mid-to-high clouds
increasing late tonight and monday as an elevated warm front lifts
across the region. no showers are expected through at least early
monday afternoon. winds will then strengthen on monday, with gusts
of 20-30 knots expected by the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 346 am edt sun apr 26 2026

discussion...

high degree of stability expected today as surface high pressure and
mid/upper ridge move across the central great lakes. the surface
high pressure sliding across ontario will veer the early morning
northeast winds towards the east this afternoon. this will usher in
more dry lower level air that should gradually break up the lingering
low clouds across much of southeast michigan this morning. the east
winds will work against the therm ridge and limit a greater warm air
advection response this afternoon, but some airmass moderation should
occur with the anticipation of more sunshine. expecting highs today
for inland areas to be in the low to mid 60s. lakeshore zones will be
notably cooler given that east flow.

dry and stable conditions expected to hold through tomorrow. lower
level flow turns south to southeast downstream of a midwest trough
and surface low moving across iowa tomorrow afternoon. this will
allow for better warm air advection into michigan and bring daytime
high temperatures mostly in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s with a few
mid 70s possible towards the southern border. there will be
increasing coverage of clouds through the afternoon downstream of
the low pressure system.

aforementioned low pressure system will progress northeastward and
move over lake superior by early tuesday morning. this system will
drive a cold front through michigan monday night with corridor of
deeper moisture and higher thetae ahead of it. severe weather likely
will develop upstream across the mid mississippi valley into il and
portions of in. frontal forcing with available moisture will likely
sustain some convective activity into southeast michigan late monday
night into tuesday. given the arrival at the diurnal minimum, models
solution are limited with the amount of instability available when
activity arrives locally. as of now, still anticipating a high
chance for showers and thunderstorms monday night into tuesday, but
probability for severe weather remains low. latest guidance has
trended down slightly for the qpf with most of the area sitting in
the 0.25-0.50" range for the overnight period supported by pwats
that increase to 1.25 inches or more.

upper level troughing carrying a couple embedded shortwaves will
swing across the great lakes during the mid to late week period. at
the surface will be a high pressure that creeps out of south central
canada and into the great lakes that will draw in drier air into the
region with a persistent north-northwest flow. thus, the overall
pattern only offers low chances (<20%) of precipitation during this
period with mostly dry conditions expected. this northerly flow will
also lead to a stretch of cooler temperatures that will see daily
high temperatures in the 50s and a couple nights late in the week
down to around the mid 30s.

marine...

high pressure holds over the region through early monday maintaining
benign marine conditions. southeasterly winds strength latter half
of monday as the next low lifts out of the central plains towards
the northern great lakes. while a 45-60kt llj develops over the
central great lakes monday night, accompanying warm advection should
promote a stable overlake thermal profile limiting mixing potential.
currently local probabilistic guidance is advertising a ~30% chance
to reach 34kts. arrival of showers and storms late night-early
tuesday does offer potential for profiles to turn more neutral,
however this set-up would warrant short-fused special marine
warnings over gale headlines. system`s cold front crosses daytime
tuesday ending storm chances as well as flipping winds to the
northwest. rapidly weakening pressure gradient on the backedge of
the low keeps these winds under 30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.