Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
753 pm edt mon sep 14 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes
were needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) cool temperatures and dry weather expected tonight.

2) an unsettled and humid weather pattern returns tuesday
through late week. a few strong storms are possible in northwest
ohio tuesday night, although confidence is low.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will remain in place over the region through
tonight. clear skies will allow for efficient radiational
cooling and expect lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. a few
spots across interior ne pa may manage to drip into the low to
mid 40s if cooling ends up being more efficient than currently
anticipated. this will be the last chilly night of the workweek
before temperatures warm up tuesday onwards.

key message 2...
after a brief break in the unsettled weather pattern, multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact the area
late tuesday through at least thursday. the first round of
showers and thunderstorms will arrive behind a warm front and
with a pre-frontal trough tuesday evening. there is a small
chance of a couple of stronger storms tuesday evening into
tuesday night, although most cams suggest that the best
instability will be to the west of the local area and storms
will be coming in during a diurnally unfavorable time of day.
the severe weather risk may be a little bit higher if storms end
up moving in earlier than currently anticipated, but either way
bulk shear values of around 30 knots supports an spc marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather with damaging wind gusts
being the main concern.

from there, a cold front will push southeast across at least a
portion of the area before slowing and wavering over the region
wednesday through late thursday. this will result in periodic
showers and thunderstorms for the mid to late week timeframe.
there may be opportunities for a few stronger storms given the
proximity of the front, but there is still uncertainty in the
exact placement of the boundary and the amount of instability in
place each afternoon. will need to keep an eye on the forecast
and update as needed.

it will also be quite humid and warm across the area with highs
in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s
wednesday and thursday. pwat values will increase to 1.5 to at
least 2 inches during this time and flow parallel to the
boundary may result in potential in heavy rainfall rates and
training showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the taf period. diurnal
cumulus has dissipated with high pressure building overhead and
the loss of daytime heating. mid and high cloud will increase
overnight then tend to scatter out on tuesday. there will be a
chance of a shower or thunderstorm towards 00z but was late
enough that will hold off for the next taf package. did include
vicinity of showers at cle after 04z as moisture advection
continues tomorrow night.

winds will be light and variable for a period of time overnight
before developing out of the south on tuesday. winds may gust to
20-25 knots at eri late tonight into tuesday morning as the
gradient tightens with a southeast wind.

outlook...non-vfr at times in scattered showers/storms tuesday
night through thursday night.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds will continue through early this
evening before shifting to the southeast and increasing to 10 to
20 knots ahead of an approaching warm front tonight into tuesday
morning. there may a brief period where winds in the nearshore
zones (especially in the western basin) touch 20 knots tuesday
morning, however confidence in winds of 20+ knots is highest in
the open waters. have opted against a small craft advisory for
the time being, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds.
the offshore winds will mitigate wave heights and keep the risk
of rip currents relatively low. offshore winds will diminish to
roughly 10 to 15 knots tuesday evening with flow becoming more
southwesterly behind the warm front tuesday night into early
wednesday. northeast winds of 10 knots or less are expected on
the lake as a frontal boundary wavers over the region wednesday
with flow becoming variable thursday through the end of the
week. winds/waves should remain below small craft advisory
limits late this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...10
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
738 pm edt mon sep 14 2026

.key messages...

- turning hot and humid tuesday and wednesday. shower and
thunderstorm chances return tuesday afternoon through
wednesday (40 to 70%). chances may linger into thursday as
well.

- there is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms
tuesday mainly between 6 pm and midnight. main threat is
damaging winds if storms become severe. confidence remains
low at this time.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along
the berrien co, mi shoreline tuesday. breaking waves and
currents expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 147 pm edt mon sep 14 2026

very pleasant temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s will
shift away as the sfc ridge moves east and an increasing low level
flow starts ushering much higher dewpoints to the area. this will
take a bit of time, with values into the low to mid 50s by 12z tue.
off to our nw, an axis of much higher dewpoints will be pooled along
a slow moving frontal boundary that is expected to approach later
tomorrow and linger across the region (in a weaker state) through
thursday. dewpoints and low level temps will climb through the day
with a much more muggy feel returning by afternoon. high temps
before any convection occurs will reach well into the 80s for most
locations and if cloud cover stay away long enough, a few 90s are
possible in sw areas.

models have generally backed off on upstream convection making it
into nw parts of the area as it encounters the drier air mass and
outruns the better forcing. as we move into tuesday afternoon and
beyond, this changes with at least chance pops warranted as leftover
outflow boundaries that may drift in during peak heating interact
with increasing cape. there seems to be a continued lean towards
better development in the 20 to 22z time frame, mainly nw but
honestly could end up just about anywhere. these then progress
southeast through about 2z to 3z wed before shifting out of the area
or weakening. shear profiles are on the lower side (25 to maybe 35
kts) for some organization of convection, and decent low level lapse
rates will help with the initial lift, but mid level lapse rates are
quite unfavorable for more robust convection. spc has maintained the
marginal risk for severe storms with some gusty wind potential for
those storms that can interact with boundaries and maybe sustain
some briefly better updrafts and cores.

beyond 6z wed forecast becomes even more challenging as frontal
boundary slowly weakens and stalls over the general area with models
struggling (as to be expected) with the handling of subtle waves and
possible new development or propagation of upstream convection.
given the amount of lingering moisture in the area and at least some
instability, it won`t take much to pop additional showers and
storms, thus warranting the chc to likely pops through thursday. by
no means does it look like a washout with periods of little/no
precip likely in between waves, but no way to time those out at this
point in the forecast. severe threat should be very minimal, if non
existent, but heavy rain/localized flooding could become an issue
with high pwats and any repeated training of multiple rounds of
convection. marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place
tue and wed and is reasonable.

no changes beyond thursday as models seem to want to push the
ridging north into mi for the weekend. however, history over the
past several weeks in this setup has pointed towards low confidence
on how much of this comes to fruition. as a result, blend is left
alone with some slgt chc to chc pops, especially sat.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 735 pm edt mon sep 14 2026

as surface high pressure escapes eastward, low pressure passes by to
our north in canada. this evolution allows a warm front to push
through tuesday morning allowing moisture to push in. depending on
cold front and convergent boundaries, shower and storm chances
increase. the first instance of such an episode is tuesday morning
around 12z for sbn. rap time-sections indicate there`s quite a bit
of dry air that needs to be overcome below 700 mb so there`s still
some uncertainty on start time. chances continue in the vicinity
of sbn through the morning. fwa takes even longer to moisten up,
but there`ll be thunderstorm chances that erupt in the late
afternoon time frame as long as its largely unimpeded by cloud
debris. given dry air extent, it looks like we may be harder
to get mvfr conditions into sbn in the morning, but chances
are, during the afternoon mvfr conditions will be more likely
with ifr more possible by 00z time frame. fwa likely sees a
quicker ramp of adverse flight conditions closer to the 00z
time frame with the initiation of storm chances.

we`ll also have some marginal llws between 10 and 16z at sbn.
initial southeast winds slowly veer more southwesterly by tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1156 pm edt mon sep 14 2026

.key messages...

- a chance of showers and thunderstorms returns tuesday. the best
chance of storms and heavy rainfall is late afternoon and evening
south of i-69.

- a chance of showers lingers wednesday before becoming more
numerous again wednesday night and thursday.

- dry weather with temperatures around normal friday into next
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

thickening high based cloud overnight, as elevated moisture
transport increases along the southern flank of a strengthening low
level jet positioned north of the region. this process brings
potential for scattered shower activity late night and early
tuesday, particularly from ptk northward, with overall coverage and
intensity likely limited too some degree by ample dry air held
within the lowest layers. this will support predominant vfr
conditions through this time. prevailing wind from the southeast
tonight, veering to southerly with some modest gustiness for the
afternoon. secondary window for convective development may emerge
along the cold frontal boundary tuesday evening with a focus across
the detroit corridor.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through tuesday
afternoon. a lower probability exists for thunderstorm development
tuesday evening /21z-01z/.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less tuesday afternoon and evening.

* low for thunderstorms tuesday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 327 pm edt mon sep 14 2026

discussion...

high pressure has led to a dry but cool day across se michigan. many
locations have seen temperature readings hold in the upper 60s, even
under plenty of sunshine. anticyclonic surface wind pattern over
western michigan identifies the center of the surface high, which
will drift overhead this evening and cause winds to back to the
southeast. flow backs further to the southwest overnight, drawing a
theta-e ridge into the great lakes region tuesday. this brings
warmer temperatures, increased rain chances, and breezy southwest
flow to se michigan.

the theta-e surge will be aided initially by a belt of ~50 to 60
knot h8 winds late tonight, driven on the larger scale by se conus
high pressure. the nose of the jet reaches northern michigan early
tuesday morning, focusing a broad area of precipitation toward the
saginaw valley for the first half of the day. a deep closed low
across ontario will simultaneously drag a cold front across northern
conus, which will push rain chances eastward and thus into the rest
of the cwa through the day tuesday. one questionable aspect of this
system is how well the stratiform rain can hold up against the dry
airmass sampled overhead today (pwat of 0.44" per 12z kdtx sounding
for reference). soundings are showing a good amount of dry air
surviving at the low levels, which could eat into qpf amounts and
even rain chances altogether, especially as the low level jet
forcing departs mid-day tuesday. the waning llj presence will still
be enough to produce breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph
possible.

as the cold front and associated moisture convergence arrive tuesday
afternoon-evening, event character becomes more convective with
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping along the boundary.
instability is not expected to be overly impressive, but several
models bring 70 degree dewpoints across the state line tuesday
evening which is enough for about 1000 j/kg mlcape. this occurs in a
fairly tight time window between about 21z-01z (5pm-9pm) south of i-
94. swody2 continues to designate a marginal risk for severe weather
across lenawee/monroe counties, mainly for isolated precipitation
loaded downbursts in a marginal shear environment. the broader
threat looks to be heavy rainfall, especially given the high
moisture environment and proximity of the frontal zone. more details
are in the hydrology section.

se michigan through the rest of the work week will be in the hands
of the frontal zone. the baroclinic zone certainly stays within
reach of us, but models generally shove it into the ohio valley for
wednesday before lifting back north thursday-friday. broad brushed
pops reflect the uncertainty in coverage/timing of this pattern
rather than a full wash out over the next several days. wavering
nature of the frontal zone will also cause temperatures to waffle
between 70s and 80s through the rest of the work week with unsettled
conditions possibly extending into the weekend.

marine...

strong high pressure over the great lakes tracks eastward this
evening, giving way to a mature low pressure system over the upper
midwest. this system advances across northern ontario on tuesday and
directs a strong southerly low-level jet across the region. the
strongest winds are still on track for northern lake huron where
gales to 35 to 40 kt are forecast. a gale warning remains in effect
north of alabaster from 4 am to 4 pm. farther south, gusts of 20 to
30 kt will be more common and small craft advisories remain in
effect for the lake huron nearshore waters. a band of showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms accompanies the gale event with highest
coverage across lake huron during the morning. additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast across lake st. clair and
western lake erie during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a
cold front. this front eases across the area tuesday night, bringing
the end to showers and causing wind to shift from south/southwest to
north/northeast by wednesday morning.

hydrology...

a moisture rich airmass surges into the region tuesday ahead of a
cold front which tracks through in the afternoon and evening. the
front then stalls out across the northern ohio valley before lifting
back north later this week. this will result in multiple
opportunities for widespread rainfall throughout the week. in the
near-term, the best opportunity for heavy rain will be south of i-69
tuesday afternoon and evening where thunderstorm development may
enhance rainfall rates to over an inch per hour. depending on where
the front stalls, rain may linger overnight to produce storm totals
over one inch by wednesday morning with training storms not out of
the question. localized ponding or minor flooding of low-lying or
urban areas will be possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz361>363.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......tf
hydrology....mv

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.