Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
130
fxus61 kcle 192344
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
744 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

.what has changed...
periodic rain chances are expected across the area through
sunday afternoon with some bouts of heavier rain. localized
flooding will be possible where multiple rounds of heavy rain
occur.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of rain with some embedded thunderstorms are
expected through sunday evening, bring some potential for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. the best chances for flooding
will be areas further south and west.

2) a cool, fall pattern will develop for the bulk of the week
with some intermittent rain chances, especially on tuesday and
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
with a warm front over the area, several mid-level shortwaves
will move through the region along with a low pressure system
through the ohio valley. this pattern will allow for several
rounds of rain activity through sunday evening. overall, the
thunder and severe weather potential is limited, as ongoing and
expected additional activity will keep instability down across
the region. however, there remains plenty of moisture in the
atmosphere, as forecast soundings indicated precipitable water
values of 1.80-2.00" across the area. therefore, any rainfall
has the potential to be efficient. any flooding concerns will be
limited to where rounds of rain can persist over the next 24-30
hours. however, for our area, the setup is trending to allowing
several gaps in the rain coverage at times and the better
chances for flooding could be areas south and west.

key message 2...
behind the weekend system, the pattern will shift to a more
fall-like pattern starting on monday with cool high pressure
building from the north and a cooler trough entering from the
northwest. this will allow for temperatures to fall into the 60s
for much of the week and lows in the 40s and 50s. there could be
some potential for rain, mainly on tuesday and wednesday, as a
trough will remain over the ohio valley and could allow for some
rain to build north into the area, as the high pressure system
retreats slightly north. high pressure will build back in on
thursday and try to dry out the forecast toward the end of the
week.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
multiple rounds of rain showers are expected through the taf
period. we start with overcast conditions with mainly vfr and
pockets of mvfr ceilings but conditions will trend towards
mostly ifr and lifr tonight as rain showers and low ceilings
impact the region. while ifr and lower will be the prevailing
category, it`s possible that pockets of vfr and mvfr will occur
at times. heavier rain accompanied by isolated lightning will
be difficult to predict in this pattern but is most likely
sunday morning after 12z.

rain will become more isolated as conditions improve towards
mostly mvfr and even a bit of vfr conditions sunday
afternoon/evening.

southeast winds of 5-10 knots will trend toward southwest
tonight before becoming north by late sunday morning into early
sunday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
a warm front continues to lift north toward the lake this
afternoon and will largely stall out over the lake tonight.
winds will be a mix of east to southeast flow across the region
and the slight offshore flow should allow for low waves through
tonight. low pressure will move through the ohio valley on
sunday and drag the front south, allowing for north to northeast
flow to develop on the lake. winds will reach 15 to 20 kts on
sunday afternoon and resultant waves will begin to build for 4
ft or greater. with high pressure to the north and a trough over
the ohio valley, a strong pressure gradient will set up for
monday into tuesday, allowing for northeast flow of 25 to 30 kts
over the lake. there is some low end potential for gales,
depending on the strengths of these systems. regardless, waves
will build substantially on monday and tuesday. the trough to
the south will try to build north on wednesday and shift flow to
the east, while staying in the 15 to 20 kt range. overall, a
long period of marine headlines will be expected starting on
sunday and continuing through the middle of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...saunders
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
772
fxus63 kiwx 192309
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
709 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

.key messages...

- several rounds of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms this weekend.
a flash flood watch remains in effect for portions of the
forecast area.

- low chances for scattered rain showers linger into the first half
of next week.

- cooler next week with highs only in the 60s monday through
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

active weather will continue through the weekend and periods of
rain will remain possible through at least midweek. a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary that is currently located just south
of the forecast area will be the focus for moderate to heavy
rain over the next 24 hours as a series of shortwaves move over
the region in near zonal flow. we are currently experiencing a
general lull in precip coverage/chances which will last through
mid evening before the next upper level impulse arrives. another
shortwave and theta-e surge is expected tonight, focusing
locally heavy rain and embedded thunder mainly along and north
of the us 30 corridor. another round then sunday afternoon/evening
is possible, especially if/where any boundary layer heating can
occur, resulting in heavier convective elements. localized
lowland and river/stream flooding, along with flash flooding,
remains a concern given the saturated ground and opportunties
for training elevated convection in this very moist 1.8-2.2 inch
pwat air mass. no changes were made to the flood watch for now
(in effect through sunday morning). latest guidance does favor
areas north of the us 30 corridor for higher probs for 1-3"
plus. luckily there are lower probabilities to the south, though
any additional rain in areas just south of fort wayne will
further exacerbate ongoing high water issues.

drier conditions are forecast for monday, although a weak
shortwave will move through monday afternoon bringing some light
rain showers, mainly south of us 30. then, a slow moving
through that is currently situated over the northern rockies
will make its way eastward over the next several days and
finally move into the great lakes on tuesday. as the low crosses
the area going into wednesday, periodic showers will continue,
and possibly persist into thursday and friday. high pressure
ridging will move in behind this system for mild and dry weather
next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 709 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

an area of rain is approaching ksbn from the west with lightning
confined to far western il. this activity will gradually track
east through the critical taf period. with a narrow corridor of
elevated instability at ksbn during the late night hours, have
maintained ts there. this instability axis struggles to progress
into kfwa, so, remain ts free there; confidence is low. heading
toward daybreak sunday, showers are likely most widespread
toward ksbn before becoming more focused toward kfwa. a period
of dry weather is anticipated just beyond this taf period as
the low pressure system responsible drops south.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through sunday morning for inz005>009-012-014-015-
017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch through sunday morning for ohz015-024.
mi...flood watch through sunday morning for miz078>080-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
937
fxus63 kdtx 200252
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1052 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

.key messages...

- periods of rain return tonight though sunday morning with locally
heavier rainfall possible at times, and a few thunderstorms.

- fog settles in overnight, becoming locally dense at times.

- lingering showers exit by midday sunday, followed by a cool and
cloudy pattern into the middle of the week.

- areas of showers are possible again late tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

a weak surface low will continue to pivot along the stalled frontal
boundary that is in place at issuance, bringing renewed shower
activity to the area early sunday morning. ceilings have fallen
below 1.0 kft agl in most locations, with upstream observations
flirting with lifr. thus the expectation is for prevailing ifr with
occasional lifr mixing in, particularly between about 08z and 13z
with additional moisture from showers. a rumble of thunder cannot be
entirely ruled out with the shower activity. ceilings and visibility
improve sunday as the front drops south, particularly in the
afternoon and evening, although it is still uncertain as to how
aggressively this trend will occur. vfr then becomes increasingly
likely in the afternoon and evening.

d21/dtw convection...a rumble of thunder is possible as shower
activity works across the area late tonight into early sunday
morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through sunday morning.
medium sunday afternoon.

* very low for thunderstorms late tonight through sunday morning.

* low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm between 08z
and 13z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 pm edt sat sep 19 2026

discussion...

modest mid/upper level westerlies reside over the northern great
lakes and ontario this afternoon while lower column flow orients
more southwesterly. this has led to steady moisture advection and
broad morning shower activity, most of which has briefly tapered
off. the main concern for this evening and overnight will be the
positioning of an elevated warm front which will anchor additional
shower activity, including the potential for a few thunderstorms.
latest nwp tendencies indicate a southward shift in this axis,
favoring areas south of i-96/696 by late evening. cape metrics are
meager at best with lapse rates aob 6.0 c/km. no severe weather
expected with any embedded thunderstorm structures. however,
boundary-layer condensation pressure deficits indicate a high
likelihood for areas of overnight fog. potential exists for locally
dense patches at times, therefore, a dense fog advisory may be
needed on short notice.

the large-scale pattern remains intact to start the day sunday as
the geopotential height field stays perturbed. expect additional
rounds of showers and perhaps a couple rumbles of thunder as the
warm sector aloft begins to retreat. split flow moves in from west
to east overhead after 18z, leading to subsidence/drying. meanwhile,
1028 mb surface high pressure builds from manitoba into central
ontario, backing gradient flow northeasterly. this helps promote
further drying from north to south, dissolving lingering midday
shower activity confined to areas south of i-94. some clouds may
linger into sunday night, but temperatures should still hold around
5-10 degrees below climatological averages.

unsettled conditions persist over the ohio valley early next week,
although the expectation is that the ridge should remain strong
enough and in proximity to southeast michigan to prevent much
spillover of showers into the lower peninsula. thermal troughing
expands further across the midwest, marked by 850 mb temperatures in
the mid single digits (celsius), which suggests daily highs closer
to 10f below normal through wednesday if not longer. a shortwave
feature aloft could close off somewhere over the northern ohio
valley late tuesday into wednesday. this would present the next
opportunity for additional rainfall, in slightly more widespread
fashion.

marine...

stalled frontal boundary maintains shower chances over the southern
great lakes through sunday. expansion of strong high pressure over
northern ontario finally shunts this front deeper into the ohio
valley. locally, the central great lakes reside on the edge of this
high resulting in a respectable gradient across the region
throughout the entirety of the early week period. this supports
moderate northeasterly through tuesday before shifting more easterly
by wednesday (while maintaining strength). while gales currently
look unlikely, onshore flow warrants long duration small craft
advisories for all nearshore waters.

hydrology...

additional showers are expected overnight, some of which will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, more so for areas south of m-59
where potential exists for training/repeated showers. morning
rainfall was less productive than prior expectations, therefore
tonight`s flood threat is slightly lower. however, tonight`s shower
activity could lead to localized new rainfall totals in excess of 1
inch. current data suggests the i-94 corridor to the ohio border
will experience the highest chances for the highest rainfall rates.
ponding in low-lying areas and urban flooding are the primary
threats, with minor rises on area rivers and streams likely.
additional lighter showers may continue through sunday morning,
before precipitation tapers off sunday afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from noon sunday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm sunday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm sunday to 10 pm edt wednesday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
hydrology....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.