Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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078
fxus61 kcle 150631
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
231 am edt tue sep 15 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes
were needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through late this
week. a few strong storms are possible in northwest ohio tonight.

2) unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the majority of the forecast area should remain dry through this
evening ahead of a period of unsettled weather. low pressure pushing
east across ontario into quebec will lift a warm front across the
forecast area today. after a brief window of cooler conditions,
highs will rise into the low/mid 80s for most and the upper 70s for
eastern zones. scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach the
region from the west as the low drags a cold front into the eastern
great lakes tonight. there remains some potential for an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm in northwest ohio where the swody1
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) remains.primary hazard will be
damaging wind gusts. however, confidence remains fairly low
given the disjointed timing of best instability and the arrival
of the cold front. in addition to an isolated strong storm,
there remains the potential for locally heavy rainfall within
these storms across northwest ohio. the wpc maintains their day
1 marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across
northwest ohio tonight. will continue to monitor the locally
heavy rainfall potential as recent runs of the href and refs
highlight stripe of 6-hour rainfall amounts between 2 and 3
inches in their localized probability-matched mean products.

the cold front will waver across the ohio valley wednesday into
thursday. additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be
likely through late week. there remains uncertainty on if any storms
will reach strong to severe limits mid to late week given the
placement of the surface boundary. despite this, a very warm and
moist airmass will be in place with pwats in the 1.5-2.0 inch
range. any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
particulary in training showers and thunderstorms.

key message 2...
high pressure and dry conditions briefly return friday into
early saturday before unsettled weather returns. a series of
shortwaves aloft will move overhead saturday into early next
week. daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue saturday
afternoon into monday, though forecast confidence decreases
monday onward.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will continue for the bulk of the taf period with
high pressure exiting out of the region. on the back side of
this system, winds are becoming southerly across the region with
a mix of mid- and high-level clouds entering with a warm front.
some low cumulus clouds will try to develop during the afternoon
hours today and some mixing in the warm sector behind the warm
front could allow for some brief 20 to 25 kt wind gusts. a
weakening cold front will approach from the west toward the end
of the taf period, bringing lowering ceilings along with some
rain and storm chances. with the front on a slowing and
weakening trend and entering during a diurnal minimum, rain will
be fairly scattered and any thunder activity will be limited to
northwest ohio, where some prob30s for ts have been introduced.
otherwise, the bulk of rain activity will hold off until after
the taf period and ts chances will remain low until wednesday
for most sites.

outlook...non-vfr possible at times in scattered showers/storms
wednesday through thursday night.

&&

.marine...
offshore flow between 15-20 knots continue today before turning
southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. winds shift
northerly and decrease to 10-15 knots behind the cold front by
wednesday morning. northerly to northeasterly winds will continue
though late week as the cold front wavers across the ohio valley
region wednesday into thursday. no marine headlines are expected
through the end of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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082
fxus63 kiwx 151011
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
611 am edt tue sep 15 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid today and wednesday. shower and thunderstorm
chances return this afternoon through wednesday (40 to 70%).
chances may linger into thursday as well.

- there is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms
between 6 pm edt this evening and midnight. main threat is
damaging winds if storms become severe. confidence remains low
at this time.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along
the berrien co, mi shoreline today. breaking waves and
currents expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 607 am edt tue sep 15 2026

a more unsettled pattern begins today as a low pressure system (over
ontario) brings a warm front through our area this afternoon, and
then a cold front this evening into the overnight hours. this cold
front will eventually stall out as the surface low/upper forcing
lift further into quebec. as of this writing, better moisture
transport is just taking aim into our area. the warm front is
currently draped from wi (nearly occluded) south into central il and
into tn/ky. expect this to lift northeast through the afternoon. i
suspect with additional moisture moving in towards the 12-15z time
frame that we`ll see a few showers and maybe an isolated t-storm
focused up near lake mi initially, spreading eastward with a focus
near the toll road. most of the high res suggest these will
taper off with time or even stay limited to the lake mi area and
near cass/berrien/st. joseph co, mi. there is still ridging
aloft and high pressure at the surface, so how much moisture
gets into this area early will determine how the showers evolve.
the nam is the most aggressive with this line of showers/storms
extending from northern il/southern wi into the thumb area of
mi, having it continue southeastward through the morning and
early afternoon, gradually shifting it southward as it runs into
the ridge. other models keep it more limited and focused
further north. for now, have pops of 20-50% for areas
along/north of us 24, increasing with northwestward extent. have
around 55-65% for berrien county, mi. don`t expect any severe
weather with this earlier activity if it survives. right now
from radar it looks as if the outflow is moving southeastward
ahead of the storms, so that will certainly keep things limited
(in addition to unfavorable timing given no
instability/capping). spc has our cwa in a marginal risk for
strong- severe storms for the today/tonight period. this is a
highly conditional threat as it will depend on how the earlier
part of the day evolves. more showers and cloud cover in the
west/north could limit our instability. furthermore, the timing
of the main cold front is slower than previous forecasts (around
00z its just southeast of lake mi). we could see some storms
popping around 6-8 pm et in the west (perhaps lingering
boundaries as well as any lake breeze could trigger things), and
if they are able to tap into decent instability we could see a
severe threat. however, the better potential really focuses
between 8 pm et to midnight as the cold front moves in while we
have some instability and the best forcing. the main threat
would be damaging winds (spc has 5%), with heavy rain and
frequent lightning. ml cape looks to be around 1000-1500 j/kg in
the evening (best west) and around 25-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk
shear. confidence is low (especially east of i 69), as we have
potential for earlier showers/storms/cloud debris, paltry mid
level lapse rates (5-6c/km) and the front is diminishing with
time as it runs into the ridge. have chances for showers and
storms tonight in the 50-80% range. high temperatures will
largely be in the low-mid 80s, with potential for high 80s,
lower 90s further south and west. heat indices look to be 95-99
degrees for these areas as humidity increases this
afternoon...but confidence for any kind of advisory was too low
given limited duration and also because if the more aggressive
nam is correct, we could have some showers/storms/cloud cover
that limits daytime heating.

shower and storm chances will persist through the weekend, with our
lingering stalled front becoming more e-w oriented and flow aloft
zonal to slightly troughed. this lowers overall forecast confidence
as we are susceptible to any shortwaves that ripple through the
flow, so timing is difficult to pin down. however, for wed-thu,
have 50-70% chances that diminish to 20-40% friday-fri night.
additional potential returns as another cold front drops into
the area sat/sat pm into early sun, so have pops of 30-60
percent for the most part. highs will be in the 70s, low-mid 80s
for the majority of the period, with a couple days seeing upper
80s further south. by sunday, highs are in the 70s.

moderate swim risk for lake mi beaches in berrien co, mi today.
breaking waves and currents are expected. waves of 2-3 ft will
subside to 1-2 ft later this afternoon. there will likely be
a moderate longshore current moving south to north along the
shore (as winds shift southwest), with moderate-strong
structural currents on the south sides of piers and breakwalls.
rip currents are possible, but less likely given fairly shore
parallel flow.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 146 am edt tue sep 15 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions at the terminals this
period, with a warm front lifting northward through the
afternoon/evening, followed by a cold front into the overnight.
there is still considerable uncertainty as to the timing of
things (mostly impacting ksbn this period). have prob 30s for
the 12-15z period to account for any showers/storms that make it
into ksbn. most of the models have the storms far to our west
dying out before they reach the terminal, but with increasing
waa we could start to see some light rain showers ahead of the
line. then we may see a quick break until the afternoon, when
guidance generates showers/isolated storms based on a potential
outflow boundary that arrives in the 18-23z time frame (dies out
before going eastward). the cold front and more likely mvfr
conditions will move through with any showers or storms along
the cold front--likely 3z-6z. kept prob 30 in the 18-23z time,
and then have predominant showers between 1z-6z (with prob 30
for more mvfr/tsra chances). kfwa will likely have showers and
isolated storms later in the night, towards the 3-12z time
frame. have a prob30 at kfwa to cover mvfr conditions that are
likely within heavier showers/storms. otherwise, llws this
morning at ksbn as the warm front lifts northeastward.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 151032
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
632 am edt tue sep 15 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms return to the area
today. the best chance of storms and heavy rainfall is late
afternoon and evening south of i-69.

- a chance of showers lingers wednesday, again mainly south of i-69,
until becoming more likely again wednesday night and thursday.

- dry weather with temperatures around normal are projected for
friday.

- a first look at the weekend indicates showery weather but mild
temperatures saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation...

synoptic scale baroclinic zone will steadily organize today along
the southern edge of the upper level jet. persistent convergence
will lead to lowering ceilings, predominately vfr, and rain showers
at times. loss of nocturnal outgoing radiative cooling support
should lead to a downtick in activity across the region during the
late morning and afternoon hours. persistent model signal exists for
convective redevelopment and thunderstorms this evening between 02-
05z for the detroit terminals.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorm development within the airspace
will probable between 02-5z this evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less tuesday afternoon and evening.

* low for thunderstorms tuesday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 am edt tue sep 15 2026

discussion...

a large and strong low pressure system is developing on schedule
while entering nw ontario early this morning. the system moves
toward james bay while drawing a band of showers with a few
thunderstorms across lower mi this morning followed by additional
activity along the the trailing cold front tonight. the cold front
then becomes the forecast subject for continued shower/storm
prospects through wednesday and thursday.

early morning observations indicate the primary band of
showers/storms aligned with strong low level jet forced moisture
transport. the eastern fringe is tied more to elevated sections of
the warm front still moving in from the mid ms valley. shower
clusters continue to develop ne with some enhancement due to
increasing nocturnal/elevated instability. the northward displacement
from the surface warm front also means there is still a substantial
layer of dry air in the low levels for these showers to overcome
through the morning. the 00z dtx sounding shows this as it was last
evening and which model soundings indicate will remain a limiting
factor until the larger scale moisture axis moves in from the nw mid
to late morning. this primary moisture axis, and the showers/storms
within, continues to sink into central lower mi and toward the i-69
corridor by noon. as this occurs, there is still a considerable
weakening trend depicted across the range of model solutions which
passes the eye test considering changes in the larger scale setup.
the advective process shifts into canada and leaves the moisture axis
overhead where it loses nocturnal/elevated instability while also
moving farther away from support provided by the upper jet and parent
mid level short wave.

other than a rumble of thunder this morning, a greater chance for
thunderstorms in se mi is held during the late afternoon and
evening. early to mid afternoon showers remain scattered within the
moisture axis while a narrow surface based warm sector builds into
lower mi ahead of the cold front. sw flow gusting near 30 mph
carries in a resurgence of surface td back up into the 60s to around
70 with southward extent. afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s
toward the ohio border help projections of href mean surface based
instability reach 1000 j/kg after 21z, but just barely up into
lenawee and monroe counties although also with 30-40 kts of 0-6 km
bulk shear. the range of hi-res models then depict a late peak
heating cycle convective initiation mainly 21z to 00z along or just
ahead of the cold front which lasts through the evening. this is a
slower/later trend on initiation timing which is a limiting factor
for development farther north from the ohio border. the updated spc
marginal risk up toward the i-94 corridor looks good in that regard,
and which highlights an isolated storm capable of some entry level
wind organization, or a precip-loaded gust, until the line exits
south and east after midnight.

a chance of showers lingers toward the ohio border late tonight and
wednesday as the passing cold front stalls through central to
southern in/oh. the position of the surface front and active zones
aloft are slightly farther south compared to recent model cycles
which is reflected in the nbm carrying pops mainly south of the i-69
corridor until later wednesday night. this is when the next low
amplitude mid level wave and surface low are projected to slide
along the frontal zone, however the new 00z model run maintains the
increased spread in qpf solutions noted in yesterday`s forecast.
consensus of gfs, nam, canadian is mostly south of the in/oh border
while the ecmwf is well north over southern lower mi. ecmwf ml/ai
runs suggest the deterministic solution is too far north, but this
uncertainty remains in the nbm with likely pops brushed across all
of se mi later wednesday night and early thursday.

extended time range models build surface high pressure southward
enough to give us a break of dry weather friday, in the subsidence
wake of the passing short wave. however, model trends are faster
bringing moisture back into lower mi friday night into saturday
leading to concerns that showers then remain active through sunday.

marine...

an occluded low pressure system advances across northern ontario
today, directing a strong southerly low-level jet across the great
lakes. a gale warning remains in effect for lake huron north of
alabaster through 4 pm where gales of 35 to 40 kt are forecast.
farther south, gusts of 20 to 30 kt will be more common through this
afternoon and small craft advisories remain in effect for the lake
huron nearshore waters. a band of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms works across the area this morning with the highest
coverage across lake huron. additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms then become possible across lake st. clair and western
lake erie during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front. this front eases across the area tonight, bringing the end to
showers and causing wind to shift from south/southwest to
north/northeast by wednesday morning. high pressure passes to the
north of the lakes on wednesday, sustaining continued northeasterly
flow of 10 to 15 kt.

hydrology...

showers and a chance of thunderstorms increase across lower michigan
as a moisture rich airmass surges back into the region today. the
warm and humid air moves in ahead of a cold front which tracks
through late in the afternoon and this evening. the front then
stalls out across the northern ohio valley before lifting back north
later this week. this will result in multiple opportunities for
widespread rainfall throughout the week. in the near-term, the best
opportunity for heavy rain will be south of i-69 this evening where
thunderstorm development may enhance rainfall rates to over an inch
per hour. depending on where the front stalls, rain may linger
overnight to produce storm totals over one inch by wednesday morning
with training storms not out of the question. this pattern presents
a chance for localized road flooding, or minor flooding of low-lying
and urban areas during the mid to late week period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz361>363.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......tf
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.