Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
169
fxus61 kcle 120635
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
235 am edt thu mar 12 2026

.what has changed...
confidence continues to increase in the strong wind potential across
the area on friday. as a result, a high wind watch has been issued
across the entire area from early friday morning through the
evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) strong winds expected friday as robust low pressure pushes
east.

2) active pattern continues into early next week with multiple low
pressure systems expected to impact the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
late thursday into early friday, a strong low pressure system
will begin to impact the area. an associated strong llj with
winds of 60 to 70 knots will surge over the area with a push of
warm air advection. the strongest part of the jet is expected to
only move over the western portion of the area with a `weaker`
jet of 40 to 50 knots impacting the eastern portion. steepening
lapse rates throughout the day and mixing level almost to 850mb
should be adequate to mix these strong winds to the surface.
many hi-res models have wind gusts in excess of 58mph (50kts)
across western counties with slightly weaker gusts in the 45 to
50 mph across eastern counties. although the overall environment
should be conducive to bringing the strong winds to the surface,
local downslope enhancement is expected to impact the lakeshore
area across nwpa. in addition, overall precipitation chances
are minimal and should be isolated to the northern half of the
cwa, but with any showers that do occur, expect additional
mixing to bring strong gusts to the surface. moral of the story
is that it is going to be quite windy on friday.

to highlight this hazard, a high wind watch has been issued for the
entire cwa beginning late tonight/early friday and continuing into
friday evening. expect this headline to be upgraded to a
advisory and/or warning in future forecast updates.

key message #2:
the weather pattern into next week will remain very active with
multiple low pressures moving east across the area. this will
bring multiple chances of precipitation (both rain and snow) and
a roller coaster of temperatures. the first system will impact
the area on friday (see key message #1) which will bring a
chance of showers across the area. initial showers should be
primarily snow friday morning before transitioning to all rain
by friday evening.

another strong low pressure is expected to impact the area on sunday
into monday which is expected to be a bigger producer of
precipitation across the area. initially on sunday, a warm
front will lift north, ushering in warmer temperatures once
again. ahead of this boundary, a mix of rain/snow is expected
before transitioning to all rain behind the warm front. these
rain showers will persist into sunday night before transitioning
back to a rain/snow mix sunday night as a cold front pushes
east. the current storm total qpf for this entire system is
generally 0.6 to 1 inch with the highest totals expected across
the western counties. periods of heavy rain may result in
localized flooding concerns, but given the current lower levels
in rivers not expecting anything widespread at this point. will
have to continue to monitor this system for any convection
potential as well given the robust synoptic support, but
confidence is too low to add any thunder mention at this point.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
mainly mvfr across the taf sites early this morning, associated
with low ceilings, though a few pockets of ifr vsbys/ceilings
will be possible at cak/yng with snow showers over the next
couple of hours. looking ahead, the overall trend into this
morning will be improvement to vfr from west to east across all
taf sites. some sct to perhaps isolated pockets of bkn ceilings
in the 3.5 to 5kft range may develop this afternoon.

northwest winds behind the cold front remain elevated early
this morning, 10 to 15 knots with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot
range. winds will briefly diminish to 10 to 12 knots over the
next several hours, before increasing again out of the northwest
to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots this afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered rain/snow showers on
friday with strong west to southwest winds in excess of 40
knots expected. non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow showers
saturday night into sunday. non-vfr may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on monday.

&&

.marine...
a week of active marine weather is expected for lake erie. low
pressure with a cold front will move through the region tonight
and allow for increasing northwest flow over the basin. a small
craft advisory remains for the nearshore waters of lake erie
through thursday for elevated winds and waves. thursday will
have a reprieve with high pressure entering with backing flow.
friday will be the most impactful day of the period with a
strong low pressure system moving through the region and a
stronger cold front crossing the lake. southerly flow will
quickly increase on friday to 30 kts and gale force winds are
possible with the cold frontal passage on friday evening. have
gone ahead and issued the gale watch for the entire lake. high
pressure will quickly enter for saturday and winds will be quick
to subside. another strong low pressure system will target the
region early next week and may have additional strong winds with
elevated waves on the lake. more marine headlines may be needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
high wind watch from friday morning through friday evening for
ohz011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
pa...high wind watch from friday morning through friday evening for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez142>144.
gale watch from friday morning through late friday night for
lez142>147-162>167.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez145>149.
gale watch from friday afternoon through late friday night for
lez148-149-168-169.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...kahn
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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080
fxus63 kiwx 120659
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
259 am edt thu mar 12 2026

.key messages...

- very windy conditions are expected on friday with gusts up to
60 mph possible.

- a very strong system is expected sunday night into monday.
thunderstorms are likely sunday night with strong winds and
accumulating snow likely on monday.

- temperatures near 70 on sunday will crash into the 20s by
monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 259 am edt thu mar 12 2026

light rain/snow associated with passing midlevel trough axis has now
fully exited our se cwa. shortwave ridging will ensure dry
conditions for today and nearly full sun with some late day, weak
waa will yield highs in the low/mid 40s (some upper 40s possible in
far sw). quiet weather will be short-lived though as powerful 170+
kt pacific jet carves out a deep, but compact midlevel low over the
great lakes. some light precip is expected later tonight into early
fri given some decent isentropic ascent. thermal profiles in our
north are marginally supportive for snow but lack of good forcing
this far south and warm ground temps will limit accumulation. the
much bigger issue will be the wind. an exceptionally tight gradient
develops between deep low over northern mi and a strong ridge of
high pressure holding over the se conus. net result is a screaming
llj possibly approaching 80kts at 850mb. the big question, as
always, is how much mixing will occur. mixing heights are not ideal
in waa prior to sunrise. they do increase after sunrise but of
course wind speeds at the top of the pbl also drop as this occurs.
some guidance members do suggest we mix into 50+ kt winds,
particularly in our se zones around 15-18z. local climatology shows
this is the ideal time and setup/wind direction to hit high wind
warning criteria (a rare event around here) but there`s still enough
spread in available guidance to introduce some uncertainty. have
therefore decided to go with a watch and allow day shift time to
make final call on any potential warnings. regardless of whether we
hit the magic 58mph threshold, it will be very windy with gusts up
to 50 mph virtually assured.

mainly quiet weather expected for sat though a developing warm front
could bring some light rain or snow to the area. chances of
measurable precip are currently less than 20% per nbm. main concern
in the long term is sunday night into monday. another strong/deep
trough swings through the great lakes with a deep surface low
passing through central mi. ahead of the system, strong waa will
push highs to near 70f on sun with thunderstorms likely sun night
along the strong cold front. instability profiles aren`t great as
best surface dewpoints and midlevel lapse rates are shunted east by
sun night but there is enough instability to at least keep an eye on
severe potential along the cold front sun night. temps then crash
into the 20s by early mon morning with wraparound/lake-enhanced snow
and very windy conditions likely. snow amounts highly uncertain at
this range but some headlines will likely be needed due to the
combination of falling snow and wind. quieter weather then expected
for the rest of next week but there will still be periodic chances
for light precip as a baroclinic zone remains draped over the
region.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 121 am edt thu mar 12 2026

a dry but breezy day is ahead. the back edge of the current
cloud deck over the area can be seen at ksbn. clearing will
commence rapidly from west to east over the next few hours, with
mostly clear skies expected from 09z and onward. as high
pressure builds across the mid mississippi and ohio river
valleys today, expect vfr conditions to prevail. westerly winds
will increase after 15z this morning, with gusts as high as
20-25 kts by the afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 120754
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
354 am edt thu mar 12 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snow is likely overnight into friday morning, with 1
to 3 inches forecast north of m-59.

- a high wind watch is in effect friday with potential for southwest
wind gusts as high as 50 to 55 mph.

- another round of accumulating snow is likely saturday night into
early sunday. thunderstorms are then possible sunday night with
strong winds late sunday into monday.

- much colder monday through wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s
and lows in the teens to potentially single digits.

&&

.discussion...

thermal trough takes brief residence today with temperatures
currently in the 20s forecast to rebound into the 30s and lower 40s
this afternoon. a dry column will support a good amount of sunshine
today, though lake moisture advecting through within cyclonic flow
supports a diurnal flare-up of high-based cumulus. steep lapse rates
and deep mixing result in a 20 to 25 mph breeze which holds wind
chills in the 20s and 30s.

an energetic 170 kt upper jet working into the pnw this morning will
drive the next period of active weather late tonight into friday. a
compact and vigorous shortwave at the nose of this jet and
subsequent ageostrophic response will produce a powerful clipper
that tracks across northern mi during the day friday. sharp exit
region ascent precedes the system in a brief burst of snow expected
to occur over a ~4-6 hr period mainly between 2am and 10am. surface
wet bulb temps at onset will be in the mid to upper 20s, then rise
to the mid 30s through the morning as higher temps and dew points
arrive from the southwest. this allows for accumulating snowfall
overnight which transitions to melting snow later in the morning.
slrs near 12:1 result from the impressive lift, which is forecast to
produce 1-3 inch accumulation north of m-59. highest confidence in 3
inch amounts, with about 20-30% chance to see 4 inches, exists in
northern bay/midland/huron counties and considered these areas for a
winter weather advisory, but decided to let the next shift assess
morning model data for higher confidence. south of m-59, 0
accumulation to a wet 1 inch is expected before melting ensues.
additional rain/snow showers are possible the rest of the day but
with accumulation unlikely.

11.12z naefs/ecmwf ensemble mslp mean deepens the low to ~988mb as
it tracks across lake michigan friday morning. this is near the
0.5th percentile for this time of year, and will note that 12.00z
deterministic runs generally depict a slightly stronger system. the
resulting gradient will bring strong wind through the day friday.
initially from the south as the 50-65kt llj passes overhead during
the morning, wind will veer around to west as the low reaches lake
huron in the afternoon. there is still an appreciable amount of
model spread wrt wind magnitude at the surface, driven by placement
of the llj core, variable stability in the warm sector during the
morning, and depth of moisture/stratus that works through during the
afternoon which will affect mixing heights and lapse rates. do have
enough confidence at this stage to issue a high wind watch for all
of the area, with current guidance supportive of a high end advisory
but with room for headline adjustment in later forecast packages as
needed. the going forecast will call for wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph
with a morning peak associated with the passing llj, and then a
secondary peak during deepest mixing in the afternoon. highest
confidence in the higher gusts will be south of i-94 where the
gradient is maximized and low-level moisture may be less of a
limiting factor.

the next 170 kt upper jet streak arrives over the pnw late saturday,
this one digging more meridionally and driving a trough down to the
gulf coast late this weekend. this highly dynamic wave kicks off
deep cyclogenesis over the corn belt which spreads a band of
elevated warm frontal snow across the great lakes saturday night
into early sunday. several inches of accumulation will be likely
before the elevated forcing lifts north, possibly with a brief
transition to wintry mix as a warm nose arrives midday. the latest
nbm advertises 50-100% probability for 2+" for areas north of i-94
by 00z mon. also of note is 60% probability for 6+" in the saginaw
valley, which will be positioned tenuously close to the system`s
heavy deformation axis based on current guidance. confidence is
increasing for the surface low center to track across lower mi
sunday night, suggesting brief residence time within the warm sector
and potential for thunderstorms overnight. gusty winds and snow
showers ensue monday into tuesday as much colder air is dragged in.

&&

.marine...

northwest flow continues in the wake of a cold front. the favorable
fetch across north and central lake huron along with elevated mixing
depths from colder air aloft will allow for breezy conditions
through the morning. wind gusts around 30 knots will be likely, with
isolated gust to gales through 10am edt. winds decrease through the
late morning and afternoon hours as a ridge of high pressure briefly
fills in across the region.

attention then quickly turns a clipper low pressure system that
moves in across northern lower michigan and northern lake huron
tomorrow morning. a very strong pressure gradient will accompany
this seasonably strong low pressure system which will result in a
rapid uptick in sustained winds and gusts, along with winter
weather. given the strength of this system, gust to high-end gales
and sustained winds to gales are expected. a gale warning has been
issued for all marine areas. additionally, there will be a window
for storm force gusts through the day tomorrow, south of the low
pressure system. there are still small deviations as to where storm
force gusts will be possible pending this track of the low, but lake
erie to lake st. clair will be locations will have potential for
these stronger gusts, with additional lowered chances across the
saginaw bay and southern lake huron.

this low pressure system exits the area tomorrow night but will pull
in colder air in its wake, sustaining breezy conditions through
early saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1145 pm edt wed mar 11 2026

aviation...

low level dry air advection is making good progress across western
lower mi, marked a rapidly advancing clearing line. this clearing
will make its way across the terminals during the first hour or two
after taf issuance. the clear skies will offer some degree of
decoupling in the boundary layer, leading to some degrease in wind
speeds/gusts into the early morning hours. deepening daytime mixed
layer will lead to a slight uptick in winds thursday afternoon. dry
low level air will limit afternoon clouds to just some higher based
cu.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet very early in the forecast
period.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......am
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.