Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
051
fxus61 kcle 061139
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 am edt thu aug 6 2026

.what has changed...
showers should be a bit slower to move into the area today than
previously forecast, keeping the bulk of today dry. widespread
showers are now expected friday into saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple weak disturbances are expected to impact the area into
next week as a broad upper level trough remains in place. near
average temperatures will persist.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as high pressure becomes nearly stationary off the mid-atlantic
coast, the area will be impacted by multiple shortwaves moving along
a broader upper level trough into next week. currently, a weak cold
front is slowly meandering east towards the area, however is
expected to stall just west of the cwa today. this should allow for
the bulk of the area to remain dry, although some afternoon,
diurnally driven showers are possible given the increased moisture
flow and daytime instability. the better forcing looks to arrive
late tonight into friday as a mid-level shortwave helps to sag the
cold front closer to the area and allow for additional support for
showers. more widespread shower and thunderstorm potential will
increase in the afternoon with additional support from daytime
heating, but given weak shear not expecting any severe storms. some
of these showers will linger into saturday. locally heavy rainfall
remains the primary concern with showers that develop given a near
parallel mean flow, expected slow storm motion, and increasing
moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pwat values
climbing to 1.5" or more.

late saturday into sunday, there should be a notable break in
precipitation chances as the area falls under a weak ridge briefly,
but it will be short lived as another shortwave moves along the
broad trough and moves another weak boundary toward/through the
area. widespread shower and thunderstorm chances once again increase
sunday evening into monday. this shortwave will quickly be followed
by an additional one late monday into tuesday. with these general
unsettled pattern expected to persist into mid-week next week,
expect numerous rounds of showers across the area. showers into next
week will continue to have the heavy rain potential. in areas
impacted by multiple rounds, localized flooding will be possible. to
highlight the hydrology concern, wpc has at least a portion of the
area in a marginal ero through day 5. with the weak convective
elements, spc has only highlighted the area in general thunder.

temperatures through this entire period will linger near normal with
highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. with very muggy
conditions expected, apparent temperatures may climb closer to 90
during peak heating.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
a mix of fog and low stratus remains over eastern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania this morning. expect ifr/lifr conditions
at kcak and kyng and mvfr at keri for the next hour or so until
diurnal mixing allows for this fog and low stratus to dissipate.

for later today, very low confidence remains in the shower and
storm activity over the immediate airspace. overall, believe
that activity will be both east and west of the area but not
overhead. some of the western activity may get to ktol and have
a prob30 for mvfr and thunder. otherwise, the main impacts may
just be a mix of low-to-mid level clouds that will spread
across the region. for overnight into friday, suspect that some
larger coverage of rain will develop and spread into northern
ohio overnight and have introduced vcsh to the end of most of
the tafs. winds will be light through the period and generally
south to southwest.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through
monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours for
each day.

&&

.marine...
the lake will remain in the warm sector of a trough moving
through the great lakes region. light southwest winds will
continue across the lake today with low waves in offshore flow.
another weak low will enter the region for friday and saturday
and allow southwest flow to continue. a weak cold front will
swing through on saturday night, bringing brief northwest flow.
a stronger low pressure system will enter the midwest on sunday
and extend a warm front across the lake allowing southwest flow
to return. this low will get closer to the lake on monday and
enhance the southwest flow, potentially getting to 20 kts. there
is potential for brief marine headlines with this system early
next week, but there is still time to iron out details.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
351
fxus63 kiwx 061039
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
639 am edt thu aug 6 2026

.key messages...

- chances for widely scattered to scattered showers and storms
(20-50%) will persist into friday. locally heavy rain is the
main concern.

- additional, potentially higher, chances for showers and storms
may evolve late sunday into tuesday. heavy rain threat may
increase, but confidence is low in exact location of greatest
concern.

- seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 am edt thu aug 6 2026

a quasi stationary front has drifted se little more than 100
miles with a moist and somewhat unstable airmass south of it and
drier, more stable to the north. widely scattered showers
continue to percolate across the area with very slow overall
movement as a weak wave moves through. confidence in precip
chances through the next 24 to 36 hours remains quite low as any
increase in convection will need assistance of additional weak
disturbances. eventually, the front looks to slowly washout
later friday/friday night. cams are all over the place with pops
and qpf. given the concerns noted, have continued with slgt chc
to chc pops into friday and defer any increase to later
forecasts if trends become clearer. pwats of 1.75" or higher
will yield a small risk of heavy rainfall, with areas that see
training showers/storms seeing some limited flooding concerns
possible. wpc has maintained the marginal risk for excessive
rainfall.

there may be a lull in precip chances later friday into sunday,
but eventually another boundary will setup across the region
with increasing chances for showers and storms returning. while
chc to likely pops exist in the later periods, confidence on
location, timing and coverage remain low this far out.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 637 am edt thu aug 6 2026

some patchy, locally dense fog has settled into ksbn due to the
proximity of the frontal boundary. vsbys have been variable at
surrounding sites so have opted for a tempo group with expected
improvement. otherwise, low confidence continues with regards to
chances for showers/storms and possible impacts to both sites
this afternoon and evening. will maintain the prob30 for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
475
fxus63 kdtx 061344
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
944 am edt thu aug 6 2026

.key messages...

- an unsettled pattern continues today into the weekend with
scattered showers and thunderstorms at times.

- temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend.

&&

.update...

the 12z dtx sounding showed a mid level capping inversion based near
560mb which is not well resolved by the 06z model suite. ample
moisture below this inversion will ensure periodic cloud cover
through the day. through the first part of the day se mi will lie
between a short wave lifting into the straits and the remnant mcs
complex across the mid mississippi/lower ohio valleys, with broad
meso scale subsidence across the forecast area. the cloud cover is
expected to result in a variation in instability across the area
this afternoon, with hi res guidance suggesting sb cape ranging
anywhere from 600 to 1200 j/kg as boundary layer moisture remains
elevated. there are at least a couple mechanisms which may break any
residual mid level capping today. a mid level short wave shedding
off the mcs and now lifting into cntl il/in may clip the southern
portions of se mi late this afternoon/evening. a respectable region
of enhanced boundary layer convergence across the thumb and eastern
sections of the area due to the lake huron marine layer may also
contribute to a convective release later in the day. these factors
remain supportive of low chance pops late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 657 am edt thu aug 6 2026

aviation...

mid and high clouds clearing eastward with the area of showers have
opened the nearly saturated boundary layer to further cooling prior
to sunrise. fog and low stratus have quickly filled in over southern
lower mi as a result. ifr ceiling and visibility from mbs down to
fnt is expected to expand toward ptk and the dtw corridor during the
morning. these conditions occur in and around the frontal zone
stalled across the region which sets up an environment of slow
improvement through mvfr by late morning and then low end vfr early
to mid afternoon.

prospects for renewed development of showers and thunderstorms
becomes the focus this afternoon. increasing afternoon instability
combines with the diffuse frontal zone to promote greater coverage
along and south of the i-69 corridor with an added component from
activity that survives moving northward from il/in. activity
continues through mid evening and then transitions to showers over
the dtw corridor into the late night hours. boundary layer moisture
content remains elevated for a mix of low end vfr and mvfr clouds
through sunrise friday.

d21/dtw convection... a mid afternoon to mid evening time window
remains open for scattered thunderstorms in and around the dtw
airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

* moderate for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

prev discussion...
issued at 350 am edt thu aug 6 2026

discussion...

a weak frontal boundary marked by a corridor of dew points in the
upper 60s and 70s remains draped ne-sw across lower mi into northern
in this morning. this will slowly migrate eastward today while
what`s left of any frontal structure continues to fade. by tonight
and into friday, the front dissipates overhead leaving the area
within weak southwest flow downstream of a longwave trough over the
midwest. additional moisture will work into the area from the ohio
and mississippi valleys with weak perturbations aloft bringing bouts
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and friday.
given the weak/nebulous forcing, any precip is expected to be hit-or-
miss and timing generally carries lower than normal confidence
through this period.

guidance favors mainly dry conditions much of the morning before
daytime heating produces a weakly unstable and uncapped environment
supportive of scattered pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms
through the afternoon. upper jet entrance region forcing arrives
south of m-59 during this window, suggesting the highest coverage of
showers sets up there (~40%). href/refs ensemble mean sbcape on the
order of 500 to 1000 j/kg and mean 0-6 km shear of 25 to 30 kt
supports potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of producing
heavy downpours and isolated gusty winds up to 40 mph. coverage
should wane this evening with the loss of diurnal instability, but
another flare-up of convection will be possible in the south
overnight on the nose of a weak llj. otherwise, it will be another
mild and muggy night with potential for some patchy fog by early
friday.

a similar weakly forced and uncapped environment exists on friday,
with a slight uptick in instability outlined in ensemble
probabilities. the favored window for showers and storms will be the
mid afternoon to mid evening diurnal peak, with cams suggestive of
enough surface convergence to trigger convection. severe weather
chances are low given weak lapse rates, shear, and organization.

a pacific jet streak tracking into the upper midwest friday night
will force a cold front across the great lakes on saturday. the more
coherent upper forcing tied to the nose of the jet and associated
shortwave may outpace the front itself saturday morning, but enough
frontal convergence and instability exists for a chance of showers
and storms during the day. temperature advection is minimal with
this front, and seasonable august temperatures are forecast to
persist this weekend and into next week. post-frontal high pressure
on sunday looks to bring some reprieve from the unsettled pattern.

will need to monitor sunday night into monday which presents the
next window for more organized convection as several stronger
shortwaves pass over a warm/stationary front in the vicinity. the
last several runs of ensemble guidance has hinted at potential for
heavier rainfall, with latest nbm qmd offering 50% probability for
1+" by 12z tuesday. lref is more muted but still shows a wide swath
of 25% probability for 1+" in the region. this passes the eye test
given the frontal setup, llj forcing, and moisture rich environment.

marine...

a stalled frontal boundary located across southern michigan will
bring the continuation of showers and some thunderstorms through the
day. most activity will be confined south of the northern lake huron
zone, aligned where the front resides. winds generally remain light
outside of any thunderstorm activity. high pressure builds in the
wake of the front late tonight through tomorrow, with a second cold
front then moving through friday to saturday. this will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms leading into the
weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....bt
discussion...tf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.