Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
051
fxus61 kcle 210621
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
221 am edt wed oct 21 2026

.what has changed...
a dense fog advisory is in effect for portions of northwest ohio
until 10 am this morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through at least early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dense fog, with coverage ranging from areas to widespread, is
developing across northwest oh early this morning. patchier
dense fog is also developing across some river valleys farther
east-southeast across north central ohio. will continue to
monitor the coverage of the fog and issue any additional
advisories or statements as needed early this morning.

outside of nightly fog and frost potential, the forecast remains
extremely tranquil and seasonable through early next week. low
temperatures may be slightly chillier tonight/thursday morning,
leading to greater frost potential. thursday night trends a few
degrees milder with lesser frost potential. friday night/early
saturday will trend several degrees cooler, and look to feature
more widespread frost potential, including in portions of the
area where the growing season hasn`t been ended yet.

a front is expected to cross tuesday or tuesday night, with
potential for just a bit of rain along or behind the front late
tuesday into wednesday. otherwise, the forecast is dry for the
duration. one item to monitor is the potential for a few lake-
enhanced sprinkles late thursday into early friday as a trough
axis pushes across lake erie, though the odds of any measurable
rain with that feature appear too low for a forecast mention.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
main concern for the taf period will be the dense lifr fog
impacting tol/fdy/mfd into this morning. the latest satellite
imagery depicts a developing area of fog across northwest ohio,
with recent guidance suggesting a slow westward expansion over
the next several hours. with light flow in place, fog may not
dissipate until mid-morning in some spots. vfr is expected
elsewhere through the period.

outside of a lake enhanced northerly breeze of 5 to 7 knots at
cle/eri this afternoon, winds will be light and variable through
the taf period.

outlook...periods of overnight patchy dense fog may impact taf
sites into friday. otherwise, primarily vfr is expected.

&&

.marine...
generally north to northeast winds continue over the next few
days, leading to choppy conditions at times on the lake. winds
will remain under 15 knots through thursday afternoon, but will
increase to 10-15 knots at times this afternoon/evening and
again early thursday, which will be enough to build 2 or so foot
waves at times. a stronger push of winds in the 15-20kt range
remains in the forecast thursday night into friday, building a
period of 2-4 foot waves east of the islands. a shorter window
of 3-5 footers and small craft advisory conditions in the
central basin remains possible.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for ohz003-
006>008-017-018-027-028-036.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...kahn
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
638
fxus63 kiwx 210722
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
322 am edt wed oct 21 2026

.key messages...

- dense fog is expected this morning, particularly along and
east of interstate 69. more patchy fog is possible tonight
with the greatest chances across northeast indiana and
northwest ohio. some locally dense fog is possible again early
thursday morning.

- dry weather will continue through the weekend with
temperatures slightly above normal. temperatures are expected
to cool to slightly below normal by next tuesday and
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 320 am edt wed oct 21 2026

satellite imagery early this morning depicts an expansive area of
stratus/fog across northwest ohio, with widespread dense fog
developing across south central lower michigan and northwest ohio.
weak easterly flow associated with eastern portions of low level
anticyclone will support westward migration of this stratus/fog into
far northeast indiana over the next several hours. a dense fog
advisory has issued earlier this morning for hillsdale co mi and all
of nw ohio counties, and based on current trends, a westward
expansion will likely be required. with expansive low level
anticyclone in place and very weak low level flow, diurnal
mixing will likely be slow to erode stratus/fog, with areas of
fog persisting through the 14 to 15z timeframe.

otherwise for today will be monitoring the progress of a progressive
mid/upper level short wave trough across the upper midwest this
morning as it reaches the western great lakes region. a narrow
axis of mid level moisture/patchy mid level clouds will likely
remain north of the local area while another area of mid clouds
associated with mid level short wave progressing through mean
upper ridging will largely remain displaced to the west from the
central plains to the mid ms valley. a persistence forecast
largely utilized for high temperature forecast today as little
thermal advections have been noted over past 24 hours with
similar poor mixing profiles today and similar good amounts of
insolation.

passage of the great lakes short wave this evening will allow for
reinforcement and southwestward shift to low level anticyclone
across the region. this should yield a weak northeasterly low level
flow profile for tonight which once again raises the question of
some enhancement to fog development downwind of eastern great lakes.
given northeast trajectories, greatest confidence in fog development
tonight is far ne in/nw oh mainly along and south of us route 24,
but some patchy fog will be possible once again for many areas east
of i-69. the fog may become locally dense once again early thursday
morning.

a stable wave pattern will maintain through the first part of the
weekend with an eventual shift of longwave upper ridge axis
east of the local area by 2nd half of the weekend. this should
allow for sunday to realize the warmest temperatures of the
period in the low to mid 70s. longwave predictability begins to
break down early next week with large discrepancies in how
phasing is depicted with western conus closed upper height
perturbations among various deterministic/ensemble guidance.
some indications that stronger frontal forcing will develop
northwest of the local area late weekend/early next week as
southwest conus upper wave pushes east and dampens, but given
uncertainty in progression and depth of this wave as it reaches
central conus argues for maintenance of mainly dry forecast at
this time with expectation that frontal forcing will wane
through time. blended guidance idea of trend back to cooler
conditions early to mid next week still appears reasonable.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 150 am edt wed oct 21 2026

the primary aviation weather forecast issue will be on the
potential of dense fog at kfwa this morning. satellite imagery
and sfc observations early this morning are depicting an
expanding area of low clouds and dense fog across northwest
ohio, with a slow westward translation over past hour. weak
northeast flow associated with eastern periphery of low level
anticyclone will continue to support westward expansion of these
low clouds/dense fog from the eastern great lakes this morning,
possibly affecting kfwa as early as 10z. the time period of
greatest potential of dense fog at kfwa appears to be in the
11z-14z timeframe. will maintain vfr conditions at ksbn with
expectation bulk of dense fog will be roughly along and east of
the i-69 corridor. a short wave tracking across the great lakes
region will allow for low level anticyclone to refocus
westward later today with weak low level northeast flow off the
eastern great lakes again tonight. this could set up another
night of patchy fog late wednesday night at kfwa, although with
the ne trajectories, best chances may be south of kfwa>

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
778
fxus63 kdtx 210712
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
312 am edt wed oct 21 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog tonight.

- mild and dry through the week.

&&

.discussion...

the combination of clear skies under light east to southeasterly
flow has resulted in the proliferation of dense fog through southern
and central michigan, and to a lesser extent across the thumb. the
favorable flow has brought about better moisture advection derived
from lake erie inland, where continued advection along with gentle
upsloping will see dense fog expand west and northwest through
central mi. this will continue to promote fog across monroe and
lenawee counties, where a dense fog advisory is in effect until 10
am edt. portions of western washtenaw, the tri-cities and thumb will
likely see periodic fog, possibly dense at times, through daybreak,
with sunshine then works the lift and scour out fog through the
remaining morning hours.

the familiar persistence forecast will again take hold today as high
pressure sits over the great lakes, which will be reinforced through
friday as a longwave ridge expands through the plains and
midwest/great lakes. dry weather and above normal temperatures
continue as a result through the weekend. daytime highs will return
into the upper 60s today and tomorrow and may make a push into the
70s by tomorrow afternoon. a very subtle decrease in highs (low to
mid 60s) will be likely friday with northeast flow coming off the
lake, but as the aforementioned high pressure system starts to
depart into the western atlantic, low-level flow re-orients south to
southwesterly, resulting in the gentle uptick in waa pushing highs
back in the mid to upper 60s. fog, dense at times, remains highly
sensitive to wind direction as shallow lake moisture advection has
been the main driver of recent events. tomorrow morning fog is a
possibility under clear skies, but the unfavorable flow lowers
confidence relative to today. friday morning will be much more
conducive to advective fog given the light east to northeast flow
off of lake huron and saginaw bay. patchy to areas of dense fog will
be possible through the tri-cities and thumb with lowered confidence
for the degree of expansion inland. outside of morning fog concerns,
dry and sunny weather continues through the weekend.

&&

.marine...

high pressure remains over the region through the end of the week
resulting in benign marine conditions. the current high now centered
over quebec, will slowly shifts east through tonight with a dry cold
front then passing southward early thursday. this front will quickly
be followed by another area of high pressure that will then hold
through most of the weekend. wind gusts will stay below 20 knots
through the end of the week. winds will be southerly today before
flipping around to the north for thursday behind the cold front
early in the morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1154 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

aviation...

conditions will become favorable for some degree of fog and/or very
low stratus development late tonight. forecast will continue to
highlight a window for mvfr to ifr visibility restrictions with an
entry level mention for very low stratus. there remains potential
for one or more southeast michigan terminals to witness a period of
lifr in fog/stratus, although confidence in occurrence remains too
low to include attm. any lingering fog/stratus will lift thru late
morning, affording another period of clear skies with light wind for
the remainder of the daylight period.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......drk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.