Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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157
fxus61 kcle 011152
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
652 am est sun nov 1 2026

.what has changed...
with this update, opted to add a slight chance of showers to western
counties tomorrow as forcing associated with a weak boundary moves
into the area.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue to drift east through tuesday with
gradually warming temperatures. light, scattered rain showers are
possible monday across the western counties.

2) confidence is increasing that a strong low pressure will impact
the region midweek, resulting in widespread rain showers wednesday
and thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to influence the area as it slowly
drifts towards the mid-atlantic coast through tuesday. with the area
now on the backside of the aforementioned high pressure, overall
flow will become more southerly allowing for an increase in both
moisture and warmer air across the area. highs today and tomorrow
will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s before really warming into
the mid 70s on tuesday. as the area transitions to this southwest
flow, conditions should remain dry today. however, late tonight
through monday there is a mid-level push of energy that is expected
to move northeast through the area which could provide enough
support for some isolated shower development across western
counties. at this point not expecting anything widespread or any
heavy rain showers, however wanted to make note of the change given
previous forecasts were dry through tuesday. by monday night, the
axis of mid-level energy should push east, allowing for conditions
to dry out through tuesday. no matter what, given the proximity of
the area to the departing high and approaching low pressure, mostly
cloudy skies are expected to stick around.

key message 2...
the end of this prolonged period of dry weather looks to be in site
as confidence continues to increase that widespread precipitation
will impact the area wednesday and thursday. behind the departing
high pressure discussed prior, a deepening upper level trough and
associated low pressure system over the north-central us is expected
to track east towards the great lakes region. models are slowly
beginning to agree on the overall timing of the system through
thursday, which essentially keeps the surface low over the region
and moves multiple boundaries east. this couples with strong upper
level support from the trough and an open stream of moisture from
the gulf should result in multiple rounds of showers in the middle
of the week. the biggest uncertainty now is the progression of the
system once it reaches the region. models have now begun to slow the
progression of this low, nearly stalling it over the region as the
overall pattern becomes less amplified. if this does occur, the
potential for showers could extend past thursday possibly even
lingering into the weekend.

at this point, there are no flooding concerns with this
precipitation as it should be slow and steady limiting the localized
runoff from the dry antecedent conditions. in addition, given the
increasing temperatures into the mid 70s, cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder on wednesday and thursday, although overall
instability looks to be marginal given the expected cloud cover and
decreasing daylight hours. temperatures through next weekend are
expected to remain above normal.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions remain expected across the airspace today with
mostly mid-level ceilings on the back side of a high pressure
system to the east. winds will start east to southeast this
morning before favoring a more southerly wind direction by this
afternoon. increasing moisture and warm air advection into the
region may allow for some very light rain here and there through
the period, but no operational impact is expected and with low
confidence on locations, will continue to omit from the tafs.
lower vfr ceilings will enter on monday with a warm front
formally approaching from the southwest.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain on wednesday and thursday.

&&

.marine...
a high pressure system will continue to slowly drift towards the mid-
atlantic coast through tuesday. this will result in south-southwest
winds of 5-10 knots to continue through monday before increasing
monday night to 10-15 knots from the south. these winds will be
consistent through tuesday, allowing for waves along the southern
lakeshore of lake erie to remain 2 feet or less. by tuesday night,
the aforementioned high will drift off the coast as a low pressure
system over the north central us tracks into the region. this robust
system will increase the gradient over the area and increase winds
from the south-southwest to 12-18 knots. given the offshore flow,
waves should remain between 1-3 feet at most through at least
thursday. confidence begins to diminish as models diverge in
handling the progression of this low at the end of the week and into
the weekend with some models suggesting the aforementioned low
nearly stalls over the region. will have to continue to monitor the
progression and any potential marine headlines needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 011121
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
621 am est sun nov 1 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers this morning, mostly cloudy but remaining mild
with highs well into the 60s.

- very warm on tuesday and breezy followed by increasing rain
chances through wednesday (60% chance).

- rain showers may linger at times into thursday and friday,
with highs near 60.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 116 am est sun nov 1 2026

a trough working its way through the mid-missippi valley today
brings plenty of clouds to our local area while the best rain chance
associated with this features resides outside of our forecast area
to the south. i did carry 10% pops for the day in preparation for
any rogue sprinkles in this period of continued, weak waa and ascent.

rain chances increase in the days ahead as the 500-mb pattern
becomes highly amplified due to a deep trough emerging from the
rockies. gulf moisture seeps in atop a mid-atlantic ridge, perhaps
leading to isoalted showers monday afternoon. low confidence on this
as the best moisture pooling is off to the west, yet available cams
do litter portions of the area with isolated showers. very warm and
breezy tuesday as one low occludes over the up and cyclogenesis
renews over the central plains. we`ll see high temperatures soar
well into the 70s (challenging records) depending on cloud cover.
similarly, the magnitude of any synoptic wind gusts will hinge on
breaks in the clouds aiding to mix down a strengthening low-level
jet. poor lapse rates and a lack of instability look to keep the
severe weather risk in check wednesday as the occluded front moves
through in the first half of the day. with the low lingering over
the midwest thursday, breezy conditions may persist while rain
chances pause within the dry slot of this expansive system.

not a ton of cold air behind this low with ridging noted in the lee
of the rockies. the result is high temperatures to finish out the
week right near 60 with lows near 40. low shower chances may persist
through the end of the week until the low finally exits over the
northeast.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 621 am est sun nov 1 2026

light rain showers have developed amid our weakly forced
environment. showers appear to be exiting kfwa while showers
may linger for the next 90 minutes or so at ksbn. low confidence
in how the afternoon evolves with another round of rain showers
within the cards, but not quite a slam dunk. if the past 36
hours are any indication, activity near evansville can survive
into northern indiana this afternoon. a prob30 has been
introduced to address this.

otherwise, wind less then 10 knots today and a period of mvfr
ceilings resides just beyond this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
453 am est sun nov 1 2026

.key messages...

- mild and mostly cloudy through early next week.

- warmer on tuesday with an increasing chance of rain mid-week.

&&

.aviation...

elevated moisture transport maintains vfr mid-cloud (7-10kft) today.
influence of surface high pressure however keeps the area dry and
only light east-southeasst winds.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 am est sun nov 1 2026

discussion...

early morning upper air analysis shows broad lower amplitude upper
ridging anchored locally, with a loosely organized southern stream
mid level wave ejecting into the midwest. this wave is forecast to
lift across southeast michigan over the next 24 hours. the existing
elevated height field within the background low level southeast flow
will maintain a milder resident thermal profile for the first day of
november, with a noted period of warm air advection across the 850-
925 mb layer as the lead edge of the wave encroaches. thick canopy
of mid level cloud will cap the insolation potential, but the
advective process will aid in lifting temperatures into the middle
and upper 60s most locations. while a spotty shower or two remains
plausible as modest height falls work through, lack of meaningful
moisture quality across the lowest 6-7k ft favors mainly dry
conditions to finish the weekend period.

dynamic mid level wave now seen on water vapor lifting into the west
coast will strengthen while closing as it enters the plains by early
next week. a notable increase in the upper height field immediately
downstream will maintain this stretch of warmer conditions locally,
with 850 mb temperatures peaking in the lower teens tuesday. this
will translate into highs of low to mid 70s by tuesday - or a solid
15 to 20 degrees above average for early november. greater forced
ascent tied to more meaningful moist isentropic ascent will largely
remain to the west thru this time, but with some suggestion that a
window may exist for light shower production sometime monday night
into early tuesday with greater potential with northward extent.

central conus closed low will slowly track east-northeast thru the
latter half of the week while gradually weakening with time.
attendant cold front currently projected to migrate through lower
michigan wednesday and wednesday night. favorable environment will
exist given the increase in moisture along the advancing front under
strengthening low level southwest flow for a high coverage of rain
to develop during this time. area will reside on the north flank of
better instability residing across the ohio valley, worthy of
perhaps an isolated mention for a rumble of thunder. a late day
arrival will again lend favorably to continued very mild conditions,
with highs again forecast near 70 degrees wednesday. trending cooler
with potential for unsettled conditions to linger for the end of the
week as the trailing upper trough maintains moist cyclonic flow and
steeper mid level lapse rates. with that, temperatures still
projected to reside on the warmer side of average heading into next
weekend.

marine...

light southerly winds will prevail through the rest of the weekend
as strong high pressure centered along the mid-atlantic coast still
extends west and maintains its influence. southerly winds will
increase early next week as low pressure develops over minnesota and
lingers into the midweek. wind gusts are expected to peak out 25 to
30 knot range, as warm air (lower teens at 850 mb) keeps mixing
depths in check. enough moisture is expected to advect into the
great lakes region to support increased coverage of showers tuesday
and wednesday. showers could potentially linger into thursday as
either the primary cold front or a weaker low pressure system tracks
through. wind speeds and direction remain uncertain for thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...mr
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.