Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 261120
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
720 am edt mon oct 26 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast continues to remain unchanged with this forecast
package.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather will continue for much of the week with just
limited rain chances on thursday night and a better chance of
rain as early as saturday night. high temperatures will be in
the 70s at times this week, which is about 10-15 degrees above
normal for the last week of october.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure to the south of the region will keep moisture
away from the area as a weak cold front enters and washes out
overhead. weather will remain dry despite the front in the
region with 40s dew points in place. high temperatures today
will be in the 70s but will cool off a bit on tuesday behind the
front, especially areas closest to lake erie. high pressure
returns from the north for tuesday and wednesday, retaining dry
weather across the region. this system will push east of the
area by thursday, allowing a warm front through the area. high
temperatures on thursday will be the warmest for the week, up
to the mid 70s in some spots. a cold front will approach on
thursday night and may bring some rain to ne oh/nw pa, but the
best upper level support may be northeast of the area. high
pressure will return for friday and saturday with more dry
weather and 60s/70s. the next rain system will approach on
saturday night and may be more of a story for sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions will continue across taf sites through the
period. southerly winds this morning will shift westerly this
afternoon, northerly this evening, and eventually northeasterly
tonight while remaining at 8 knots or less.

outlook...primarily vfr expected through friday.

&&

.marine...
winds will start offshore this morning before a weak cold front
crosses the lake, shifting winds to the west then northwest at
10 kts or less. high pressure will be quick to build in from the
north tonight into tuesday, bringing northeast winds of 10 to 15
kts and waves of 1 to 3 ft. high pressure will move east on
tuesday, shifting winds to the east with time. the system will
sink south along the east coast and winds will return to the
south on wednesday. a warm front will cross the lake for
thursday and stronger southwest flow will return to the lake at
10 to 15 kts. another weak cold front will cross the lake on
thursday night and winds will shift to the northwest for friday.
overall, no marine headlines are expected on the lake at this
time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 261044
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
644 am edt mon oct 26 2026

.key messages...

- warm and dry conditions persist for much of this week with highs
in the 70s and lows around 50.

- there is a chance for light rain near lake michigan on
thursday with a better chance for more widespread rain early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 am edt mon oct 26 2026

a weak convergent boundary is noted on radar mosaic and surface obs
just to our northwest this morning. this front is associated with an
upper low crossing hudson bay and is becoming increasingly diffuse
as the parent forcing zips east and strong mid/upper ridge holds
over the ohio valley. no rain is expected locally, just a steady
stream of high clouds given incredibly dry and stable low levels.
our area does see a wind shift later today into tonight to nne and
eventually east. will have to keep an eye on fog potential given
return of lake erie contribution but ample high clouds may limit
development as is occurring now. highs today still reach low 70s
ahead of the front and flow veers back to a more southerly direction
by tue afternoon so highs on tue are still around 70 (slightly
cooler far ne).

s/sw flow and warm/moist air advection ramp up again tue night
through thu as another front take aims at the region. a more
southward track of the parent trough and a much better prefrontal
llj/theta-e surge suggest at least some chances for rain on thu. the
trough is still well to the north though and local areas remain
relatively dry and stable. best chances for some light rain will be
in our far nw thu afternoon. latest nbm even throws in a chance for
thunder in our nw but not expecting anything significant and areas
along/south of us-24 likely remain dry. highs do climb near 80 on
thu, which is the record (set in 2024).

upper ridge finally breaks down this weekend with potential for a
southern stream trough to tap into better moisture and bring our
best chances for rain in a while. still a ton of spread regarding
the timing and evolution though. halloween still looks mostly dry
but nbm is maintaining some slight chance pops. better chances
arrive sunday into monday but confidence on timing and amounts
couldn`t be much lower.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 644 am edt mon oct 26 2026

a weak cold front will drop across the southern great lakes
today. this front is expected to have limited impacts at the
terminals as a broad upper level trough across south central
canada shifts off to the east. the departure of this upper
forcing will allow the front to hang up across the southern
great lakes and lose its integrity over the next 24 hours. some
post-frontal ifr/mvfr low clouds have been working down western
lakeshore areas in northeast illinois and current expectation is
that outside of some lingering mvfr vsbys in fog at ksbn through
13z, vfr conditions should hold this forecast valid period.
based on frontal progression, higher res guidance does suggest
better potential of fog tonight will likely remain south of the
terminals. winds will remain light through the period, although
some northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected at ksbn
behind the front this afternoon. winds will veer to northeast
tonight with speeds at 5 knots or less.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 260958
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
558 am edt mon oct 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather continues today through thursday.

- temperatures remain at or slightly above normal today and tuesday,
despite a shallow cold front sagging southward across the region.

- a low chance of fog or low clouds across the thumb and tri-cities
tonight and tuesday morning.

- a renewed warming trend begins wednesday and thursday as high
temperatures return to the 70s.

- the next chance for measurable rainfall holds off until thursday
night and friday along the next weak cold front.

&&

.aviation...

a weak cold front will drop through the region early in the day.
cloud cover and southwesterly flow has presented an environment not
as favorable for fog development this morning, with the obs cooling
close to the dewpoints as of around 10z which has allowed a few obs
of 4-5 sm. will keep an mvfr vsby for the detroit tafs to start the
period to give credit to the persistence of the fog over the last
few days south of the front. the front will flip the winds around
from sw to n today though speeds will remain under 10 knots, with
further veering to ne or e tonight. high clouds this morning will be
gradually replaced by low vfr or mvfr cigs behind the front. model
soundings suggest the possibility of the low vfr clouds currently
across northern lower will reach at least mbs and fnt during the
morning before mixing out so they stand the best chance of mvfr for
a few hours. further south should largely hold vfr.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm this morning.

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 am edt mon oct 26 2026

discussion...

a weakly forced cold front lean on moisture is the weather highlight
for se mi today. the initial wind shift passes through the tri
cities and northern thumb leading up to sunrise while any remaining
pockets of rain continue dissipating. the front lacks moisture and
is just too far south of the ontario mid level trough and upper jet
to sustain precipitation, however clouds are plentiful along and
behind the surface boundary. this helps sharpen an already
respectable boundary layer temperature gradient, but which takes
nearly the entire day to reach the ohio border. the weak and slow
low level cold advection allows another day of above normal high
temperatures south of i-69, and especially from metro detroit to the
ohio border where highs around 70 are once again in reach. boundary
layer cold advection then gains traction tonight as the surface
front settles into the ohio valley and high pressure slides across
northern ontario to strengthen ne flow into the central great lakes.
low to mid level frontal clouds linger overhead with the chance for
a stratocu component inland from lake huron. guidance temperatures
still only drop to normal lows in the upper 30s tri cities and thumb
to mid 40s metro detroit southward by sunrise.

tuesday ends up being cooler compared to recent days, however still
at or slightly above normal. mid level clouds hold through the day
within the mid levels of the frontal zone stalled overhead while the
surface boundary remains located across the ohio valley. the clouds
combine with steady ne wind into lower mi to produce high
temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. broad low pressure
developing from the central plains into central canada then begins a
new warming trend across the midwest which spreads into the great
lakes wednesday. there are additional clouds but still not much sign
of rain in the warm advection pattern among the 26/00z models,
however guidance temperatures quickly return to around 70 wednesday
afternoon and lower to mid 70s thursday. records are in the upper
70s for thursday/29th as recently as 2024.

the larger scale upper air pattern maintains a split flow in the
northern stream jet during the late week which directs surface low
tracks from the sw states into central canada and then eastward.
this keeps the associated cold fronts more benign upon reaching
lower mi with the next one projected for thursday night into friday.
it presents the next chance of rain but not much of a temperature
drop by friday. nbm guidance high temperatures hold in the mid to
upper 60s through the weekend, ahead of these low tracks and in sw
flow off high pressure pinned near the mid atlantic coast.

marine...

a dry cold frontal passage will clear into the eastern great lakes
this morning resulting northerly post-frontal flow. the surface
pressure gradient should sufficiently constrict for an uptick in
winds and waves heading into the evening hours. a brief period of
occasional wave heights above 5 feet may develop for outer bay and
portions of the southern lake huron shoreline, where fetch is
maximized. a short-fused small craft advisory may still be needed
this evening. high pressure then translates southeastward across
ontario on tuesday, before settling over new england by wednesday.
in response, local winds will veer easterly. several additional
waves of low pressure are expected to track northeastward from the
plains through the upper midwest during the the mid-late week time-
frame, but winds and waves largely hold below headline criteria.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.