Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
707
fxus61 kcle 202322
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
722 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable weather is expected through at least early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the weather pattern will stay relatively stagnant through the
next several days as high pressure maintains influence over the
region. this will result in dry weather through at least early
next week in addition to near normal temperatures. highs will
be in the 60s with lows in the 30s and lower 40s each day,
although temperatures may begin to warm towards the end of the
weekend as the high starts to shift east. the only notable
hazard over the next several days will be related to frost
potential with efficient radiational cooling occurring most
nights. that said, the best chance of frost will be in locations
where the growing season has already ended. will need to keep
an eye on how temperatures trend in typical cold spots across
wayne/ashland/holmes counties tonight into early wednesday
morning, but there`s potential for patchy fog (which may be
dense in western zones) and lower stratus which could throw a
wrench in radiational cooling/frost coverage in that area.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions continue across the region through the taf
period outside of patchy fog tonight into wednesday morning in
northwest ohio. have lifr conditions in the taf for ktol/kfdy
late tonight into wednesday morning in fog and low stratus.

northeast winds 5-8 knots become light and variable tonight.

outlook...outside of overnight patchy fog, mainly vfr is expected
through sunday.

&&

.marine...
northeast flow will increase this evening with a period of winds
to 10 to 20 knots expected on the lake tonight. waves from
roughly willowick to conneaut will build to 2 to 4 feet during
this time and small craft advisory criteria may very briefly be
met between roughly 8 pm and midnight. at this point, confidence
is a bit too low to issue a small craft advisory since the
higher waves will remain in the open waters, but will keep an
eye on wind obs over the next several hours and adjust if needed.
from there, winds will be onshore at 10 knots or less through
thursday night with winds increasing to 10 to 20 knots once
again late thursday into early friday. winds will shift offshore
and remain between 5 and 10 knots friday into the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...13
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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951
fxus63 kiwx 202321
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
721 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

.key messages...

- dense fog possible early wednesday morning, especially along and
east of i-69.

- tranquil fall weather continues with mild temperatures and
sunshine through this week into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1245 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

with high pressure over southern ontario and prominent upper level
ridging over the central conus expected to build into the great
lakes over the next several days, a tranquil week is ahead. expect
lots of sunshine, light winds, and highs generally in the upper 60s
to low 70s each day. little to no rainfall is expected over the next
7 days and mainly dry conditions look to continue through at least
the end of the month. we may see some showers out of a cold frontal
passage early next week but for now chances remain very low (15% or
less).

despite some clouds over northwest ohio and northeast indiana
overnight with a weak backdoor cold front from lake erie,
patchy to widespread dense fog is possible overnight into
wednesday morning. light easterly flow may allow for advection
fog to develop, especially along and east of i-69. forecast
soundings indicate potential for small dewpoint depressions as
temperatures and dewpoints are both expected to be in the low to
mid 40s tonight. the best timeframe for dense fog will be
between 3 am to 9 am edt wednesday, with the lowest visibilities
at or just before daybreak. current nbm probabilities are about
20-30% for visibilities less than 3 miles while href guidance
suggests visibilities may go down to less than 1 mile especially
in nw ohio; given that there are still uncertainties and that
fog can be quite fickle to forecast, future shifts may need to
hoist an sps or even a dense fog advisory depending on how low
visibilities drop.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 720 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

main aviation concern is potential for fog/stratus at kfwa late
tonight given cool/moist ne flow off lake erie. confidence is
not high that fog will reach that far inland but some guidance
members do suggest dense fog could push as far west as kfwa.
will hold with a tempo 1sm/bkn008 mention for now and let the
overnight shift reassess for the 06z taf`s. vfr expected to
persist at ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 202304
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
704 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog tonight.

- mild and dry through the week.

&&

.aviation...

clear skies and light winds prevail through the evening period as
high pressure maintains dry and stable conditions. conditions will
become favorable for some degree of fog and/or very low stratus
development late tonight. forecast will continue to highlight a
window for mvfr to ifr visibility restrictions with an entry level
mention for very low stratus. there remains potential for one or
more southeast michigan terminals to witness a period of lifr in
fog/stratus, although confidence in occurrence remains too low to
include attm. any lingering fog/stratus will lift thru late morning,
affording another period of clear skies with light wind for the
remainder of the daylight period.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 pm edt tue oct 20 2026

discussion...

a blocking pattern will result in surface high pressure and ridging
being entrenched for most of this week across the great lakes
yielding quiet weather conditions.

surface high pressure slides into quebec with a light east-
southeasterly wind component prevailing into tonight. a similar set
up tonight compared to last night with favorable radiational cooling
conditions. the lingering lake moisture and a little more notable
moisture influx off lake erie should bring potential again for fog
development tonight. it is difficult to pin down where exactly
greater coverage of patchy dense fog may develop, but models suggest
greater potential exists for a broader area across southeast michigan
to be impacted by some coverage of fog by tomorrow morning.

no major swings in the thermal profiles for the week with
persistence of a warmer airmass that brings temperatures that are a
few degrees above climatological norms. afternoon highs will be
mainly in the 60s with overnight lows ranging from the mid-upper 30s
to mid 40s.

the northern stream across central canada will send a front into the
region that will weaken and stall out as it moves into the great
lakes tomorrow while longwave ridge amplification ramps back up
ensuring. lack of any deeper moisture will allow dry and around or
slightly above normal warmth into the weekend. high pressure centered
over eastern canada will offer potential for slightly cooler
temperatures friday down to around 60 with the northerly flow
becoming established for the day. temperatures quickly recover as
thermal ridge builds back into the great lakes for the weekend. the
next indication of a pattern change is next week as long range
ensemble members point toward a stronger canadian wave that will
break down this blocking pattern and open up the door to our next
chance a precipitation and cooler temperatures.

marine...

high pressure remains over the region through the end of the week
resulting in benign marine conditions. the current high slowly
shifts east through wednesday night with a dry cold front then
passing southward early thursday. this front will quickly be
followed by another high pressure system that will hold through most
of the weekend. wind gusts will stay below 20 knots through the end
of the week. winds will be southerly through wednesday before
flipping around to the north for thursday behind the cold front
early in the morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.