Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
946
fxus61 kcle 292049
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
349 pm est sat nov 29 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure will move northeast through the central great lakes
tonight into sunday, dragging a surface trough across the area
sunday night. weak high pressure will build across the region on
monday. another low pressure system will move northeast from the
gulf coast to the mid-atlantic on tuesday. a strong cold front
will move south through the great lakes late wednesday into
thursday.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
virga is overspreading northern ohio from the west on radar early
this afternoon, with snow expected to begin reaching the ground along
the i-75 corridor around 3 pm before spreading east into the rest of
this area this evening and tonight. aside from a slight decrease in
forecast snowfall (talking all of few tenths of an inch lower in
general) outside of northwest ohio, there`s been no notable change to
the general forecast, impacts, or headlines with this forecast cycle.
temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s early this
afternoon with dew points in the 10s, suggesting temperatures will be
near freezing when snow arrives over the next several hours and
quickly dip a few degrees due to wet bulbing. a slow warming trend
then arrives later this evening into the overnight. air and ground
temperatures will support snow accumulations on roadways pretty
quickly once steadier snow pushes in.

a look at various water vapor, satellite, radar and observational
data depicts a flat but fairly potent/classic, negatively tilted
shortwave trough and associated maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving
through the mid-mississippi valley this afternoon, with the whole
system expected to slide east-northeast into the southern great lakes
tonight into sunday. to the west, the steadiest and heaviest snow is
occurring from northern il into northern/central in, on the nose of
the stronger low to mid-level (i.e. 850 to 600mb) jet and warm
advection. in this area, good isentropic upglide along with some
pockets of low-mid level frontogenesis are leading to moderate to
strong lift, with some of this lift intersecting the dendritic growth
zone. this has led to a fairly solid shield of moderate to locally
heavy snow (with some embedded banded snow) in this area. as the
system lifts east-northeast, this zone of lift will spread across
western and northern portions of our forecast area late this
afternoon through this evening, bringing an initial period of snow
and likely the heaviest and most efficient snow of the event,
especially across northwest ohio. increasingly dry low-levels and
more separation from the responsible shortwave and low pressure will
lead to snow potential with this initial band this evening becoming
more questionable farther east and southeast towards the mt vernon -
canton - youngstown corridor. once this initial band of lift and snow
pushes northeast and out of the area into the overnight snow will
continue amid general warm air advection ahead of the approaching
mid-latitude cyclone, though mid-level moisture and lift will decrease
in this regime, leading to a lower ratio/less efficient snow and
generally lighter precipitation rates. some breaks in the snow are
likely late tonight into sunday morning as the dry slot spreads in,
though a band of precip is expected to swing west to east across the
area sunday morning along the system`s trailing cold front.

because the initial band of fluffier snow this evening will generally
be weaker with eastern/southeastern extend across our forecast area,
and because the snow the remainder of the event will be lower ratio
and lighter (as surface temperatures also climb towards and above
freezing from south-southwest to north-northeast between 1 am and 8
am), lowered snow amounts just slightly across most of our forecast
area outside of northwest ohio. in northwest ohio, hi-res and
regional models depict a few hours of potentially heavy snow as the
initial band of mid-level lift pushes through this evening, primarily
between 6 pm and 10 pm. based on modeled qpf rates and forecast
soundings showing moderate to strong lift briefly maximizing in the
dendritic growth zone, snow rates of 1 to 1.5" per hour remain likely
for at least a brief window in the toledo area, potentially impacting
surrounding counties such as wood, ottawa and sandusky as well. rates
will gradually become less impressive to the southeast, though may
briefly reach 0.5" per hour with the initial east-northeast moving
band of snow as far southeast as roughly a mt gilead-akron-warren
type line. snow rates overnight tonight into early sunday will mainly
be less than 0.5" per hour, though precipitation will take on a bit of
a convective component late tonight into sunday morning ahead of the
cold front so some briefer bursts of modestly higher rates are not
impossible. warm air aloft will tickle locations south of a marion-
warren line late tonight into early sunday, which may allow just a bit
of sleet to mix in. surface temperatures will also be warming by then
and any sleet looks brief, so it shouldn`t be too impactful and did
not include in the forecast. snow will likely mix with some "plain
rain" sunday morning ahead of the cold front as surface temperatures
briefly spike into the mid-upper 30s, especially outside of the toledo
area and outside of the higher terrain in northeast oh/northwest pa,
before cold air advection kicks in behind the cold front, leading to
steady or slowly falling temperatures through the afternoon.

total snow amounts through sunday morning of 5-7" remain for lucas
county, with 3-5" across the rest of the winter weather advisory area
across northwest ohio. a note, toledo express airport has not
recorded a 4"+ snow since january 25, 2023 or a 6"+ snow since
february 2-3, 2022. the period of heavy rates expected this evening
will lead to very difficult travel conditions in the toledo area. this
may be a bit of a shock to the system for residents there after
lacking a 4"+ snowfall the last two winters, even if it`s a struggle
to quite get to the technical 6" warning criteria in lucas county.
elsewhere, amounts of 1-3" are in the forecast farther east/southeast,
highest in the higher terrain of the snowbelt and diminishing to near
or slightly under 1" towards mt vernon, canton and youngstown.
anywhere across the area can experience some slick spots when snow
comes down and potentially accumulates on area roadways tonight.

after a relative dry break behind the cold front later sunday morning
into sunday afternoon, a secondary surface trough and vort max will
cross sunday evening. this may bring a few flurries or snow showers
area-wide, with some lake enhancement bringing locally up to a couple
inches in the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt. while an
overall light amount of precip/snow, this could lead to slick
conditions as air temperatures fall below freezing and into the 20s
sunday evening and night. lows by monday morning will range from the
upper 20s in northwest and central ohio to the mid 20s near lake erie.

wind gusts will increase out of the south late tonight into sunday
morning, with a brief push of strong west-southwest winds along and
just behind the cold front sunday morning into the afternoon. in
general, 30-40 mph gust wording will handle this. downslope winds in
erie county pa may briefly exceed 40 mph early sunday morning. the
strong push of winds along and just behind the cold front may also
briefly exceed 40 mph across northwest ohio and then near the lake
erie shoreline farther east. for now no wind advisories are behind
issued, though will need to monitor the eastern lakeshore forecast
zones in particular for marginal wind advisory potential, mainly just
behind the cold front. a brief window of blowing snow is possible late
tonight as wind gusts increase and before the period of above-
freezing temperatures makes the snow on the ground less blowable.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
high pressure slides through on monday, leading to a brief period of
dry and quiet weather with high temperatures remaining colder than
average in the low to mid 30s.

the next system will bring some snow to the area overnight monday
night into tuesday, with some minor lake effect lingering into tuesday
night across the snowbelt. while the amount of snow accumulation is
somewhat uncertain (but more likely on the lighter side), there is
increasing confidence (70-80%) in much of the area seeing measurable
snow. this snow will largely hit monday night into early tuesday with
air and ground temperatures expected to be well-below freezing. this
will lead to a likelihood of snow accumulation on roadways (especially
those that aren`t treated) and potential impacts to the tuesday
morning commute, even if we only see a light overall accumulation.

a trough will eject out into the plains sunday night into monday, with
two shortwaves expected to phase over the midwest monday into monday
evening within this trough. this will allow the trough to gradually
sharpen as it lifts east-northeast across the ohio valley and southern
great lakes monday night into early tuesday, with some interaction
also expected between the trough and the sub-tropical jet stream by
tuesday. disagreement among guidance lies both in how well the two
shortwaves phase over the midwest on monday and in how much
interaction occurs between our trough and the sub-tropical jet late
monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf remains generally less phased
overall, depicting a more progressive system with lighter qpf/snow in
our forecast area. the nam is the most aggressive all around, and does
not have much support from other global models or ensembles. the gfs
and cmc offer more of a middle ground, with somewhat more interaction
with the sub-tropical jet late monday night into tuesday across the
area. the difference between these solutions would be a light, sub-
advisory (likely 2 inches or less for most) from the unphased ecmwf
idea to a solid accumulating snow (perhaps 2 to 4 inches for most) if
a gfs/cmc like middle ground pans out. the nam offers potential for
more snow, potentially 6"+, but only a couple of ensemble members
depict similar situations with that amount of snow above the 90th
percentile of the current envelope. in general, have seen the european
and its ensemble trend slightly more amplified in recent runs while
the nam (and to a lesser extent the gfs) trend a bit flatter. it seems
like models are trying to converge towards the middle ground
solution, though further time to trend remains.

the take-home message at this point is that odds of an accumulating
snow that has some travel impacts overnight monday night into tuesday
morning are increasing. confidence in exact amounts remains lower,
though odds for over 1" across the area per latest nbm guidance are
60-80% (slightly lower north/higher south) with odds for over 4"
generally 20-40%, highest south/east. some potential for advisories
is on the table if we trend towards the somewhat snowier solution.

lows monday night will generally be in the mid 20s, with highs on
tuesday in the low to mid 30s. lows tuesday night will range from the
mid-upper 10s across most inland locales to the mid 20s near the
eastern lakeshore.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
the next cold front crosses wednesday night into thursday, bringing
potential for a few snow showers area-wide followed by some lake
effect amid west-northwest winds to the snowbelt. this looks like a
quick hit, with high pressure quickly building in thursday night.
however, 850mb temperatures briefly falling to -15c to -17c (per the
ecmwf and cmc) could allow for a relatively short window of somewhat
impactful, fluffy lake effect. the next system approaches from the
west to end the week, but significant uncertainty is present on model
guidance regarding both the progression east of that trough and how
cold it remains ahead of it over the eastern/northeastern u.s.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
aloft, sw`erly flow persists over northern oh and nw pa as
ridging exits e`ward and troughing overspreads our region from
the west through 18z/sun. at the surface, a low strengthens as
it moves ne`ward from near the ks/mo border to near georgian bay
from 18z/sat to 18z/sun. this low track should allow an occluded
front to sweep e`ward through our area between ~12z/sun and
~18z/sun. weak ridging is expected ahead of and behind the
front. our regional surface winds trend se`erly to s`erly around
5 to 15 knots ahead of the occluded front. these winds should
gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times this evening into early sun
morning. behind the front, sw`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots,
gusting up to 25 to 35 knots, are expected through 18z/sun.

widespread ceilings are expected through the taf period and will
trend vfr prior to the arrival of precip associated with the
aforementioned low pressure system. in addition, vfr visibility
is expected before and after precip. widespread snow, steady to
heavy at times, should overspread our region gradually and
generally from west to east between ~20z/sat and ~05z/sun. once
snow begins, primarily mvfr to ifr ceilings are expected and
visibility will vary between mvfr and lifr. snow should mix with
rain and generally from west to east between ~09z/sun and
~14z/sun. the rain/snow mix should end from west to east
between ~13z/sun and ~18z/sun. widespread mvfr ceilings should
linger behind the precip.

outlook...non-vfr with periodic precip, mainly in the form of
snow, are expected sunday afternoon through this thursday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory in effect for nearshore u.s. waters:
- from 7 pm today to 1 am est monday from maumee bay to reno
beach
- from 7 pm today to 4 am sunday from reno beach to willowick
- from 10 pm today to 7 am sunday from willowick to ripley

gale warning in effect for u.s. waters:
- from 4 am sunday to 4 pm sunday from reno beach to vermilion
- from 4 am sunday to 7 pm sunday from vermilion to willowick
- from 7 am sunday to 1 am monday from willowick to buffalo

low water advisory in effect for u.s. waters:
- from 3 am sunday to 10 pm sunday from maumee bay to vermilion

a low will deepen, overall, as it moves from near the ia/mo
border to southwestern quebec late this afternoon through sunset
sunday evening. this low track will allow an occluded front to
sweep e`ward across lake erie between roughly daybreak and early
afternoon on sunday. primarily se`erly to s`erly winds around 5
to 15 knots late this afternoon will freshen to around 15 to 25
knots this evening. accordingly, waves will build to as large as
4 to 7 feet in open u.s. waters, but remain 3 feet or less in
nearshore u.s. waters due to the short fetch. between midnight
and daybreak sunday morning, winds will become s`erly to sw`erly
and freshen to around 25 to 35 knots. waves will build to as
large as 5 to 11 feet in open u.s. waters and 5 feet or less in
nearshore u.s. waters. the largest nearshore waves are expected
around 5 nm offshore given forecast fetch. on sunday, sw`erly
winds as strong as 30 to 40 knots veer to w`erly as the occluded
front sweeps e`ward across lake erie. waves as large as 5 to 15
feet or so are expected. the largest waves are forecast in the
open waters of the central and eastern basins.

during sunday night, the aforementioned low should wobble
ne`ward to near the mouth of the st. lawrence river and weaken
as a ridge overspreads lake erie from the north-central united
states. w`erly winds around 25 to 35 knots, initially, become
w`erly to nw`erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots by daybreak monday.
simultaneously, initial waves as large as 5 to 15 feet should
subside gradually to 4 feet or less. on monday, the ridge is
expected to move e`ward across lake erie and allow w`erly to
nw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to back to s`erly. any
lingering 4 footers should subside to 3 feet or less by late
morning.

during monday night through tuesday, a low should deepen as it
wobbles ne`ward from the northwestern gulf to atlantic waters
near the delmarva peninsula and extends a trough over lake erie.
winds around 5 to 15 knots should vary between s`erly and
nw`erly over the lake as waves remain 3 feet or less. on
tuesday night through wednesday, another ridge should build from
the lower oh valley and vicinity as a cold front approaches
lake erie from the northwest. during tuesday night, the
interaction between the building ridge and frontal trough should
allow primarily nw`erly winds to back toward sw`erly and
freshen to around 10 to 20 knots as waves build to as large as 4
feet (largest waves expected in open waters of the central
basin). on wednesday, the continued interaction between the
building ridge and frontal trough should allow sw`erly winds to
freshen further to 20 to 30 knots as waves build to as large as
5 to 10 feet. forecast trends will be monitored for the need of
a small craft advisory.

the cold front should sweep se`ward across lake erie wednesday
night. sw`erly winds around 20 to 30 knots and waves as large as
5 to 10 feet are expected ahead of the front. behind the front,
w`erly to nw`erly winds should ease gradually to around 10 to
20 knots overnight wednesday night through thursday as a ridge
builds from the upper midwest. waves should subside gradually to
5 feet or less by sunset thursday evening.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for ohz003.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est sunday for ohz006>008-
017-018-027.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 am est monday
for lez142.
low water advisory from 3 am to 10 pm est sunday for
lez142>144-162>164.
small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est sunday
for lez143>146.
gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est sunday for lez143-144-163-
164.
gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est sunday for lez145-146-165-
166.
small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est
sunday for lez147>149.
gale warning from 7 am sunday to 1 am est monday for
lez147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
624
fxus63 kiwx 291832
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
132 pm est sat nov 29 2025

.key messages...

- widespread snow will persist through sunday morning w/
significant accumulations expected.

- winter storm warnings remain in effect for most of the area
with the heaviest snowfall rates and greatest travel impacts
expected late this afternoon through this evening.

- snow will begin diminishing in coverage and intensity
overnight, but lake effect snow showers are expected to
develop again on sunday with some additional travel impacts
expected.

- another round of light snow is possible monday night into early
tuesday followed by a stronger intrusion of cold air later in
the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm est sat nov 29 2025

the inherited forecast remains very much on track w/ minimal changes
necessary to ongoing messaging. snow has already overspread much of
the area this afternoon and will likely continue to increase in
intensity over the next several hours. heaviest snowfall still seems
likely to occur in the 21z to 06z time frame as a strong vort energy
and mid-level speed max interact with broad, intense isentropic lift
across a large portion of the cwa. greatest accumulations should be
found north of us-24 with a rather sharp gradient expected to the
south courtesy of the impressive low-level warm air advection regime
potentially allowing rain to mix in with the snow for a time, which
would significantly impact total accumulations. naturally, this will
also influence the character of the snow which is expected to be
very heavy and wet, especially later in the event with the main waa
push. slrs will transition from near 12:1 early to around 8:1 late
this evening. a short burst of convectively enhanced heavy
snowfall rates (thundersnow cannot be entirely ruled out) may
occur during the mid/late evening hours w/ the main push of warm
advection aloft. overall, still looking at decent probabilities
of 6-10 inches of total (system) snowfall accumulation mainly
focused along/north of us-24. localized lake effect bands on
sunday may push total accumulations into the 12-14 inch range
closer to lake michigan.

please refer to the previous forecast discussion for a more detailed
meteorological overview. /hammer

previous discussion (issued 414 am est sat nov 29 2025):

just some minor forecast changes made this morning, but overall
messaging remains intact with period of heaviest snowfall and
greatest impacts late this afternoon into this evening. the winter
storm warning and winter weather advisories areas remain intact with
some minor adjustments to ending times of the headlines on sunday.
winter storm warning headlines continue into sunday afternoon mainly
for lake effect snow favored areas in phase 2 of this system.

a quick ramp-up of isentropic ascent is expected through the
remainder of the morning hours. an expansive precip shield has
already developed across the lower/mid ms river valley this morning.
near term progs of 290k surface depict strongest isentropic lift
across northern missouri/west central illinois as of 08z. short term
progs take zone of strongest ascent on this surface into northwest
indiana/southwest lower michigan by 18z. track of this
advective/isentropic forcing may be a little more muted across far
southeast portions of the forecast area this afternoon. initial low
level thermal/moisture profiles and 285k condensation pressure
deficit analysis suggests that this saturation process could take a
bit longer than previously expected, particularly across eastern
half/southeast portions of the forecast area where isentropic
forcing is slightly weaker. have made some minor adjustments to
start time of headlines (pushed back 3 hours across the east),
although snow accumulations across northwest ohio may not occur
until the mid afternoon hours today. some localized low level fgen
at nose of stronger low level flow could enhance late morning
through mid afternoon snow accumulations for some areas west of i-69.

guidance has been fairly consistent with handling of this system
although some slight dprog/dt trends could have an impact. some
guidance appears a bit more disjointed in handling of mid/upper
level system, with a likely diabatically generated mid level pv
anomaly pushing through this afternoon deriving from ongoing mo/il
precip. a tendency to perhaps slightly less phasing of primary
synoptic trough and this diabatically generated interior anomaly
appears to be trending solution to slightly weaker (albeit still
quite strong) kinematic fields and consequently just slightly weaker
northward moisture transport. latest suite of guidance also may not
be quite as supportive for csi type banding given some weaker
unidirectional mid level wind shear resulting from the above
guidance trends. nonetheless, very strong advective fields and
increasing synoptic scale support via primary upper trough and left
exit region of central conus upper jet streak should support
greatest snowfall rates in the 21z-02z time period this evening. 00z
href suite also points to this time period as greatest probs of
experiencing 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates for a time. the strong
warm/moist advection will result in a highly elevated dgz, although
with some respectable depth of 3-5k feet in the mid levels across
far nw in/sw lower michigan. however, overall snow efficiency still
appears to be limited with this system across most of the area given
strongest lift in lower reaches of dgz and more limited time window
of better dgz moisture quality. event average 9-12 snow to liquid
ratio was maintained in this forecast with warning level snow
amounts dependent on the high qpf nature of this system. some
concern that relatively narrow window of strongest forcing
mechanisms late afternoon/evening and inefficient snow production
could lead to lower than forecasted snow amounts, particularly east
of i-69. at this time have made only minor adjustments to forecasted
snow amounts through tonight, with just a slightly lower trend in
most places. highest accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through 12z
sunday are still forecasted for northwest third of the area where
some cross-hair signature of mid level lift/dgz is noted in forecast
time/height sections. some consideration given to transitioning the
warning to an advisory south of us route 24 across far northeast
indiana/northwest ohio but will allow dayshift to assess trends this
morning.

a mid level dry slot still looks to overspread the area overnight
into early sunday morning, with a quick tapering of snow across most
of the area and a likely transition to light snow/areas of drizzle
with drying dgz and near sfc wet bulbs warming to near freezing
across south/southeast areas. a quick transition to stronger low
level caa ensues for sunday morning and afternoon as stronger upper
vort lobe drops across the southern great lakes. this should allow
for at least a 6 to 9 hour period of favorable lake effect snow
showers for additional accumulations/impacts with gusty caa-induced
winds also expected. some higher res guidance also suggests
potential of mesovort-type feature to accompany a sharper low level
trough passage across southern lake michigan sunday morning/midday.
have maintained the winter storm warning headline into sunday
afternoon for areas possibly impacted by lake effect snow, and have
expired the warning by 15z sunday for remainder of the area. this
timing may need to be moved up further as most of the synoptic
accumulating snow could depart after 09z sunday morning. lake effect
snow showers should wane sunday evening.

monday will feature quiet conditions as a progressive low level
anticyclone sweeps across the area, but attention quickly turns to a
lower amplitude fast moving system for monday night/early tuesday.
primary low level baroclinic zone and better moisture will be
initially suppressed well south, but a period of northward moisture
transport is expected across the ohio valley ahead of this system.
guidance differs with details in the amplitude of this wave and
northward extent of sfc reflection/moisture return. even if a more
suppressed sfc reflection verifies, would expect a strong mid level
baroclinic zone to be in place locally, with fgen band likely to
affect area with some additional snow accumulations monday
night/early tuesday that could bring an additional 1-3" of snow
across the area. thus, have accepted the sharp ramp-up in pops for
this period suggested by the model blended guidance.

no major changes to the extended forecast at this time with fuller
latitude longwave trough bringing stronger cold frontal push for the
wed-thu timeframe. some single digit lows are possible thursday
night under the influence of sfc high pressure, also aided by
potential of some light additional fresh snowcover with the frontal
forcing. some moderation in temperatures is possible by next
weekend, but still below normal for early december. /marsili

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1208 pm est sat nov 29 2025

a significant winter storm will impact the area today through
sunday. snow is overspreading the area and will continue
throughout the afternoon with the heaviest snow expected between
21z today to 03z sunday at both kfwa and ksbn. heavy snow will
result in ifr to potentially lifr ceilings and visibilities.
moderate snow and ifr visibilities continue into the early
morning hours on sunday. some rain may mix in at times after 09z
sunday at kfwa. in addition to the snowfall, south winds will
be breezy throughout the period. winds will be out of the
southeast today, shifting to become southwest overnight into
early sunday. winds will be sustained around 15 kts with gusts
up to 25 to 30 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm warning until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ sunday for
inz005>008-012-014-103-104-116-203-204.
winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for inz009-013-015-
017-018-020-022>027-032>034-216.
oh...winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est sunday for ohz025.
mi...winter storm warning until 7 pm est sunday for miz078>080-177-
277.
winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for miz081.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est sunday for lmz043-046.
gale watch from sunday morning through sunday evening for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...hammer/marsili
aviation...cobb/johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
042
fxus63 kdtx 292001
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
301 pm est sat nov 29 2025

.key messages...

- a winter storm warning and winter weather advisory are in effect
for widespread 5 to 8 inches of snowfall. the heaviest snowfall
rates are expected this evening.

- below normal temperatures continue through next week. highs in the
20s and overnight lows in the teens will be prevalent from monday
onward.

- light accumulating snow is forecast monday night and tuesday
morning with 1 to 2 inches possible for metro detroit and areas
south.

- dusting of snowfall or light snow accumulation will possible late
wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.discussion...

satellite imagery and reflectivity mosaic this afternoon depicts a
low pressure system digging into portions of western missouri with
baroclinic leafing and warm advection expanding to the north and
east into the great lakes region. the low pressure system is
forecasted to track from near kansas city this afternoon through
chicago tonight and into the saginaw bay vicinity by 12z sunday.
there is high confidence that precipitation type will remain snow
throughout the event. no significant differences were observed in the
most recent model data and no changes have been made to the
headlines or forecasted snow amounts.

gradually sloped 288-314ks system relative isentropic ascent will
continue to overspread southeast michigan late this afternoon
providing for top down saturation and increase in accumulating
snowfall rates. plan view perspective of isentropic surfaces support
a relatively diffuse frontal structure over the region with any
upright features fairly transient. cross sections show a differing
story rather abruptly after 21-00z with an impressively deep column
uvv response emerging from coupled upper level jet dyanmics and
absolute vorticity advection. the breadth of the deep uvv response
is impressive encompassing all of the forecast area. will also need
to watch for the arrival of the nose to the low level jet that will
clip areas south of i 69 between 01-05z this evening. it is in this
ascending branch/eastern flank that could bring some of the highest
snowfall rates over southeast michigan.

lower confidence does exist with regards to the average of the snow
to liquid ratios for this event. keep going back to the forecast
soundings that show any great thermal frontal structure and uvvs
occurring above the dendritic growth zone, above 14.0 kft agl.
interesting that modified cobb techniques continue to show 12:1
snow ratios will be good for much of the event. the only thought on
these higher values is that southeast flow off of lake erie/lake st
clair supports a very moist and supersaturated environment with
respect to ice especially in the lowest 5.0 kft agl. it is in this
minus 2c to minus 4c range that we could see the second dendritic
activation zone along with the potential for sticky aggregation of
flakes. do not want to discount some higher rate potential
particularly in the 01-05z window (llj forcing). the last item to
ratchet up the uncertainty for slrs is the models are adamant in
showing surface dewpoints climbing towards and reaching 32f for far
southeastern cwa after 08z. could be a real snow eater dewpoint that
causes a considerable amount of settling and compaction.

good agreement and continuity amongst hires time-lagged ensemble
that much of the event will observe snowfall rates of up to 0.5 to
0.75"/hr throughout all of southeast michigan with the aforementioned
deep lift. contingent on good low level jet forcing/moisture
eclipsing southeast michigan could see snowfall rates approach/reach
1" per hour across the south. given the strong consensus amongst the
nwp for liquid equivalent amounts of 0.5 to 0.6 inch, total snowfall
amounts of 5 to 8 inches remains reasonable. less warm lake erie
influence supports better thermal structure for accumulating across
the western counties. no changes to the headlines will be made.

plan views of relative humidity on isentropic surfaces supports a
low level occlusion feature holding on from east to west across
portions of metro detroit between 09-14z sunday morning. a good near
surface convergence signal exists in addition to a persistence of
1000-850mb uvvs. expectations are for snow showers to continue
within this forcing with perhaps an additional 1 or 2 inches
grinding out. the cold front is timed out after 14z with steepening
lapse rates below 3.0 kft agl. with fresh snow, potential to limit
daytime heating and moisture downwind of the great lakes, lcl
heights are in question. a forecast of west to northwest wind gusts
to 30 mph is reasonable.

strong 1000-500mb geopotential height rises and the tendency toward
increasingly anticyclonic trajectories will cause surface high
pressure to build aggressively into southeast michigan late sunday
night and monday. downsloping component with northwest flow will be
good to break up low cloud so clearing is expected with some morning
sunshine monday. winterlike conditions monday with fresh snow and
850mb temperatures of -11 to -13c. high monday are expected to be in
the upper 20s with wind chills in the lower 20s.

a deep tropospheric trough axis and a well organized phasing of the
southern stream will bring favorable upper level jet dyanmics for
lift to the ohio and tennessee river valleys beginning monday night.
high confidence exists that greatest low deepening rates will occur
well south and east of lower michigan due to pv anomaly/trough axis
holding onto a late positive tilt and forward jet streak and
associated dynamics not emerging/taking on anticyclonic curvature
over the northeast until late tuesday. less than 10% of 29.00z eps
members resolved a system track through lower michigan. most likely
forcing will be an area of 700-500mb system relative isentropic
ascent that is progged by the nam to be collocated with some
midlevel frontogenesis. uncertainty does exist with the quality of
moisture and saturation in the lowest atmosphere with control run of
the ecmwf much drier. with weak progged forcing, precipitation
potential of 60% and a snowfall accumulation of up to 2 inches is
reasonable at this time for southern portions of the forecast area.

complex evolution of the upper level jet is expected over north
america during the middle and end of the weak period as a pseudo
split flow regime holds on to the south of the polar vorticity
reservoir. net result is that southeast michigan will remain
sandwiched in an unfavorable zone for ascent tuesday. despite the
anticyclonic shear side of the jet axis remaining in place over the
great lakes through approximately thursday, models do support some
moisture advection across the state ahead of a sharp, cold upper
level trough late wednesday and thursday. light qpf amounts will
support some light snow/flurries potential.

low confidence exists for the evolution of the upper level pattern
for next weekend as it pertains to precipitation timing. the lower
confidence stems from the questionable timing and amplitude of a
closed low that will dig through portions of california and the
southwest at midweek. gfs is much more progressive than the
deterministic ecmwf which undoubtedly has an impact on ridging
potential over the pacific northwest. higher confidence in below
normal temperatures continuing with daytime readings in the 20s next
weekend.

&&

.marine...

slowly deepening (sub 1010 mb) low pressure entering western ohio
valley this evening, moves into southern lower michigan tonight.
snow and increasing southerly winds can be expected, reaching 25 to
30 knots across most marine waters. strong low level jet will even
support some gusts to gales over western lake erie, but bulk of the
stronger winds should be over the open waters as winds also veer to
the southwest toward sunrise sunday. in addition, there will be some
precipitation drag to weaken surface wind speeds as well.
regardless, the strong offshore flow will lead to a big water level
drop over western lake erie, and a low water advisory has been
issued for tonight through sunday evening.

the low pressure center of this winter storm looks to be passing
through central lake huron around noon sunday. as the low exits the
central great lakes during the afternoon hours, there looks to be a
good surge of low level cold advection from northwest to southeast,
and confidence is high in a period of gales for much of lake huron
late sunday afternoon into the evening. duration will be longer over
southern lake huron with the longer fetch. the 12z hrrr came in
aggressive with the 10 m winds (35-40 knots), adding confidence to
add the port austin to harbor beach nearshore zone to the gale
warning. otherwise, the other nearshore zones will also likely
experience brief gusts to gales as well. with inner saginaw bay
gusting to 30+ knots on sunday, included them in a small craft
advisory as well.

sprawling ridge of high pressure arrives monday morning, assuring
light winds, right into tuesday. next strong cold front is on track
to arrive late wednesday. arctic shot of cold air behind it, with
strong high pressure over the central plains will bring the
potential for short lived gales once again.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1259 pm est sat nov 29 2025

aviation...

light intensity snow to spread across the terminal corridor within
the 19 to 21z window with an increase in snowfall intensity this
evening into tonight. greatest impact window to ceilings and
visibility will be during the 23z to 05z window where snow rates will
be the highest. expect ceiling heights to fall mostly in the
mvfr/ifr category with brief intervals of lifr under the more intense
bursts of snowfall. vsbys fall below 2sm with potential for 1/2sm
under the heavy bursts of snowfall. predominately ifr ceilings look
to prevail by 06z tonight and through about 12z tomorrow morning. lighter
snowfall expected to persist until around 15z. winds out of the s-se
to around 10-15 knots into tomorrow morning with a veering wind to
the w-wnw mid morning sunday into the afternoon with gusts picking up
to 20-25 knots.

for dtw... more impactful snow expected this evening bringing
conditions mvfr to ifr in the 23z to 05z window. potential exists for
lifr conditions and visibilities aob 1/2 sm during the peak of the
event, most likely between 01z and 04z this evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft by around 20z and through
tonight.

* medium for visibility at or below 1/2 sm late this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter storm warning until 10 am est sunday for miz047-048-053-060-
068-075-082.

winter weather advisory until 10 am est sunday for miz049-054-055-
061>063-069-070-076-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 2 pm to 10 pm est sunday for lhz362-363-441-
462>464.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est monday for
lhz421-442-443.

small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm est sunday for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 2 pm est sunday for
lhz441.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm est sunday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm est sunday for
lez444.

low water advisory from 3 am to 10 pm est sunday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......sf
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.