Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
152
fxus61 kcle 121139
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 am edt sat sep 12 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing confidence in shower and storm activity
moving through the area today. there is also increasing
potential for scattered shower and storm activity on sunday
ahead of a cold front, but activity may end up favoring areas
southeast.

&&

.key messages...
1) shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today and again
on sunday. some storms may reach strong to severe limits and may
bring locally heavy rainfall.

2) warm, unsettled weather will return to the area on tuesday
night through thursday with additional showers and storms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
convective activity is moving through the lower ohio valley
early this morning and will continue to lift north today with a
warm front and increasing moisture across the region.
temperatures will return to the 80s this afternoon with the
front and surface dew points will return to the lower 70s for
most of the area, giving a warm and humid feel. storms will move
through the area through the afternoon with this improved
environment in place. there could be a stronger storm possible,
especially with some modest mlcape across the region and perhaps
30 kts of wind shear with the mid-level shortwave moving through
the region. the main concern would be gusty winds. the slightly
larger concern could be heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values of 1.7-1.8" across the area that indicate that any
rainfall could be efficient.

for sunday, a cold front will approach the region from the
northwest. the main question will be how much has the atmosphere
recovered over the forecast area before the front arrives. with
the bulk of activity occurring this afternoon, there should be
about 18-24 hours for the atmosphere to recover and highs on
sunday should be back in the 80s with dew points back in the
lower 70s. therefore, the front should be able to generate some
activity over the forecast area before activity blossoms further
southeast. there could a bit more organization for strong or
even severe storms on sunday with a better upper trough digging
into the great lakes region and better right entrance jet
energy overhead. the limitation will just be real estate within
the forecast area based on the cold front timing and convective
initiation on sunday.

key message 2...
the next weather system will be a cold front that will approach
the area tuesday evening. this front will slow down as it
approaches the forecast area and eventually stall overhead on
wednesday. this front will allow for scattered shower and storm
chances for tuesday night through thursday with the nearby
boundary and the warm and humid air mass across the region.
too early to tell if any convective activity will have any
severe or flooding threats; however, an east-west oriented
boundary over the area with zonal west-east flow aloft may favor
repeated rounds of activity over the same areas - the question
will just be coverage of storms.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions will deteriorate through the taf period as a
system enters terminals from the southwest. showers and storms
currently spread across southwestern ohio will lift into
northern ohio terminals this morning and continue through the
bulk of the day today. confidence in thunder at taf sites has
expanded to include all southern taf sites (kfdy/kmfd/kcak/kyng).
both ceilings and visibilities will fall to mvfr (and
possibility ifr) at times as the storms move over terminals.
timed out the best chance for non- vfr through tempo groups
across terminals with the exception of ktol where confidence in
-ra remains limited. there will likely be a brief window of vfr
conditions behind rain showers this evening before widespread
mvfr to ifr conditions return tonight into sunday morning in
areas of br/fg.

winds 10 knots or less through the taf window will shift between
southeast and southwest today into early sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms sunday
afternoon and evening. non-vfr again possible in scattered
showers/storms tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a warm front will cross the lake today and allow for modest
offshore flow over the basin. a cold front will cross the lake
on sunday and shift winds to the west then northwest. winds will
freshen to 15 to 20 kts with the cold air advection over the
basin and waves should build to 3 to 5 ft on sunday night.
suspect that there will need to be a small craft advisory and
beach hazards statement issued for much of the nearshore for
sunday night and lingering into monday. high pressure will move
over the lake on monday and decrease flow significantly, while
winds shift to the east then south. this high pressure system
will pass to the east for tuesday and offshore flow will return
once again. a cold front will approach the lake on tuesday
night, shifting winds to the southwest. this boundary should be
south of the lake for wednesday but may be washed out enough to
maintain offshore flow over the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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416
fxus63 kiwx 121159
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
759 am edt sat sep 12 2026

.key messages...

- there are chances for rain showers (20-60%) and thunderstorms
(20-30%) today, mainly along and south of us 24. severe
weather is not expected. highs will be in the 80s.

- chances for rain and storms (20-40%) sunday afternoon and
evening, then better chances (30-60%) tuesday into thursday.
severe weather is not expected at this time. cooler sunday and
monday, with highs in the 70s and low 80s. warmer and humid
by the middle of next week.

- hazardous swimming conditions are expected for southeast lake
mi beaches sunday and then again on tuesday. breaking waves
and currents are expected. see the latest beach forecast for
details.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 552 am edt sat sep 12 2026

a warm front near indy as of this writing will continue to lift
northeastward through the day, reaching our area later this morning
around 12-15z, then heading into southern ontario/lake erie by
around 18z. warm air/moisture advection is forcing an area of rain
and thunderstorms near the front, and this will lift into our area
for the morning. was initially suspicious the thunder would not make
it here, but as of 9z it looks fairly healthy thanks to some
elevated instability. as the warm front moves north, moisture
transport takes on a more east-northeasterly track-so have the best
chances along and south of us 24 (best east of i 69) through the
morning/early afternoon. meanwhile, an upper level trough/shortwave
and surface cold front approaches from the west. as of this writing,
the boundary extends southward from western lake superior into west-
central wi/eastern mn and ia/il. models don`t seem to have a great
handle on the precipitation associated with this feature (many are
dry at this time in the latest runs). its fairly light, but there
are a couple thunderstorms near the il/wi line. the actual upper
level trough and surface front look to reach our western cwa border
by 00z (right along lake mi shore, extending from il into northern
ontario). some of the models indicate a pre-frontal trough possibly
developing towards the afternoon, which could re-invigorate the
already moistened atmosphere in areas mainly along/south of us 24. i
suspect as the better moisture transport gradually diminishes and
shifts more e-ne out of our area late this morning that we`ll see a
diminishing trend to the precipitation along the incoming cold front
(thus keeping areas further north and west of us 24 dry with
variable cloud cover). in the afternoon, the shortwave/pre-frontal
trough is likely to trip an increase in shower/storm activity again,
especially as it arrives at a time of decent heating (sfc cape
potentially up to 1500 j/kg). luckily we don`t have much in the way
of any shear or steep mid level lapse rates, so not expecting any
severe weather at this time.

otherwise, heating up into the mid-upper 80s for many locations
today (especially further northwest where cloud cover is lower/no
precipitation). expect dry conditions tonight as the cold front
moves through, with winds shifting west-northwest. while winds
overnight are lower initially, they increase out of the n-nw sunday
morning into the afternoon, especially near lake mi and along/north
of the toll road. if winds on lake mi increase to 15kts sustained
and gust to around 20-25 knots...we could end up seeing waves of 3-5
feet on lake mi. however, the past few runs of models have flip
flopped on the intensity of these winds (initially lighter with 2-3
ft waves). opted to hold off on the beach hazards statement this
issuance, but did maintain a high swim risk forecast for both la
porte/berrien county beaches. if stronger winds verify, waves should
reach 3-5 feet fairly quickly, approaching at angles of 45 to 90
degrees relative to shore with 6-7 second periods. this would be
ideal for strong rip and structural currents, and a strong southward
flowing longshore current. if heading to lake mi this weekend, make
plans for out of the water activities. i suspect the confidence for
this forecast will be higher by this afternoon.

rain and storms are possible again on sunday afternoon/evening as
another trough swings through and the cold front potentially gets
hung up to our south and another weak trough moves in before high
pressure builds in from the northwest. have chances (20-30%) mainly
west of in-15, then east of in 15 chances focus further south of us
30 where the front could get hung up. highs sunday will be in the
mid-upper 70s, low 80s.

monday will be cooler and dry, with highs in the 70s. sfc high
pressure/an upper level ridge builds into the great lakes briefly,
then by mon night into tue the surface high drifts east and the
upper level ridge takes on a sw to ne orientation (extending into
the lower great lakes and the ne conus). we`ll be on the periphery
of this ridge, and as an upper low/surface low move through ontario,
it brings a trough and cold front eastward into our forecast area.
there is uncertainty as to whether the precipitation chances arrive
monday night or closer to tuesday afternoon. either way, expect the
front and precipitation/storm chances to cross from west to east
through late mon pm into tuesday. however, the front does appear to
stall out as it is limited by subsidence from the staunch upper
ridge still lingering. this would result in a boundary over our
forecast area that may linger into thursday or friday. for now, have
20-50% chances tuesday (mainly north/west of us 24), then increasing
to 30-70% by tuesday night into thursday (40-60%). there will be
chances for thunderstorms. at this point, severe weather is not
expected. high temperatures by tuesday could reach back into the mid-
upper 80s, but it will depend on the extent of cloud cover and
precip.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 747 am edt sat sep 12 2026

ksbn looks to remain vfr through the period, with much of the
precipitation associated with a warm front remaining along/south
of us 24. kfwa will likely fluctuate between vfr and mvfr. as of
this writing, the heavier showers and storms associated with the
front are southeast of a line from marion, in to ottawa, oh--
focusing closer to lima, oh. models suggest a continued
generation of showers and a few storms through the early
afternoon around the area associated with continued (weaker) warm
air/moisture advection and increasing upper level support
(shortwave incoming, cold front to the west). cloud tops have
been cooling along a line from royal center, in up through
hillsdale, mi--and some of the guidance creates showers with
this band. for now, bases are higher (7-10kft) with this, so i
am uncertain as to whether or not any precip develops in the
near term. still held onto the mvfr ceilings/vis with a tempo
and a prob30 through the early afternoon, with obs just to the
southeast of around 1500-2500 ft and developing instability with
daytime heating. kept -tsra in the prob30 group given
instability and incoming additional forcing from a shortwave.
otherwise, we`ll see a return to vfr until late tonight, when
mvfr visibilities are possible with light winds and lingering ll
moisture.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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852
fxus63 kdtx 121107
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
707 am edt sat sep 12 2026

.key messages...

- weekend shower potential: isolated showers possible today, with
scattered showers developing sunday afternoon primarily north of i-
69.

- cool sunday night: low temperatures fall into the 40s sunday night
as high pressure and cooler air settles over the area.

- unsettled midweek: warmer and humid conditions return early next
week, bringing multiple waves of of showers and thunderstorms
tuesday through thursday.

&&

.aviation...

low pressure moving through the ohio valley grazes se mi with an
isolated shower later this morning or stray thunderstorm this
afternoon. inclusion in the forecast is deferred to later updates
and refinements to timing and low coverage. otherwise, broken vfr
ceiling covers a wider area this morning as the ohio valley low and
a cold front in the midwest combine to draw cloud moisture over the
region. these clouds shift eastward and are replaced by a scattered
to broken vfr daytime heating component this afternoon.

light sw wind continues this afternoon and evening as the midwest
cold front approaches. the leading moisture axis has low potential
to sustain showers as the front moves slowly across lower mi
tonight. upstream observations this morning indicate a narrow band
of mvfr clouds along and immediately post front, and these have a
fragile depiction in model guidance until wind shifts ne late
tonight into sunday morning.

d21/dtw convection... a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm
within d21 will be monitored for potential to affect the dtw
airspace this afternoon and evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

* low for a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 256 am edt sat sep 12 2026

discussion...

a well-defined shortwave tracking into western kentucky/tennessee
will be opening up and absorbed by the northern stream trough
tracking through the western great lakes. just enough moisture
advection and weak forcing will track into the southeastern half of
the cwa today, along with enough destabilization (slightly negative
li`s and sbcapes of 500-750 j/kg) to support the potential for
isolated showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm. a secondary
moisture axis out ahead of a cold front will also track in from the
western great lakes late in the day, passing through during the
evening or washing out altogether. this will provide a secondary
focus for showers, but mostly over lake huron.

a deep 500 mb low over hudson bay on sunday will direct a strong
shortwave through the straights. timing is now in sync in with the
peak heating of the day, and scattered showers seem likely north of
i-69, closest to the mid level cold pool and moisture enhancement
from saginaw bay. 850 mb temps dropping into the mid single numbers
sunday night will bring mins in the 40s as high pressure builds over
the region. low level flow looks to be mostly offshore sunday night
into monday, but airmass is cold enough to potentially generate some
lake effect showers which could graze the far eastern huron and
sanilac counties before the tail of the upper level pv exits east and
good subsidence kicks in.

a strong storm system will track through the northern plains on
monday and into northwest ontario monday night. the active warm
front is expected to reside over western great lakes. warm and moist
air will eject out of the southern plains and fold over into lower
michigan on tuesday, as pw value reach around 2 inches. with showers
and embedded thunderstorms likely developing during the day, max
temperatures will likely be hindered and capped in the lower 80s.
there is still some potential for the timing of fropa to change
slightly, however.

medium range models continue to hang the front near the southern
michigan border before returning as a warm front wednesday night and
thursday. euro ensembles offer up a 40-50 percent chance for 24 hour
qpf to reach or exceed half an inch.

marine...

high pressure will continue to bring benign marine conditions to the
region through saturday before unsettled weather comes back in to
finish out the weekend. an active pattern returns late saturday into
sunday as a low pressure lifts thought northern ontario, dragging a
cold front across the area in the morning. overnight/early day
arrival and detachment from the parent low greatly limit any shower
and storm chances. moderate trailing northwest flow develops over
northern lake huron during the daytime on sunday with peak gusts
between 25-30kts. this front looks to stall somewhere near southern
lake huron offering an isolated shower chance into monday. a more
dynamic system then lifts out of the plains and over the northern
great lakes monday night into tuesday. preceding warm, humid airmass
will fuel better scattered storm chances during this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......ss/kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.