Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
786
fxus61 kcle 101957
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
357 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with this update. hot and
humid conditions will continue through tomorrow.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
ahead of a cold front that will push across the region friday.


2) hot and humid conditions ahead of the cold front with little
overnight relief anticipated. cooler weather behind a cold
front friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level trough is currently over the north central u.s.
and the western great lakes region. there is a small upper level
ridge over the ohio valley today. our area is ahead of a cold
front that is located over the upper midwest and across the
cornbelt region. looking ahead for the rest of the afternoon and
evening, mostly dry weather conditions are expected. there could
be a few widely scattered pop-up showers or thunderstorms
through the evening hours. our attention will be looking
westward later this evening and overnight for a decaying mcs
that may potentially move into our area. high-res forecast
guidance is somewhat uncertain on timing and coverage of this
possible complex of convection. spc does have the entire area in
a marginal risk for severe storms and far nwoh in a slight risk.
the main severe weather hazard would be damaging wind gusts.
again forecast confidence on timing and scope of possible
convection is somewhat uncertain.

the weather pattern for tomorrow will be similar as today. the
area will be will be on the warm side of an advancing cold front
through the great lakes and midwest. some widely scattered
convection may be possible during the daytime heating. pops and
rain chances look higher for thursday night into early friday
morning as convection from the west moves across the area with
the associated cold front. again, spc has the area in a marginal
risk for severe storms with the main threat being damaging wind
gusts.

high pressure will build into the area later friday and saturday
with drier weather. another cold front will move across the area
early sunday with a chance for showers. an upper level trough
will develop over the great lakes region by next week with
scattered chances for showers.

key message 2...
the heat and humidity will stick around through thursday
evening. the current heat advisory for north central and
northwest ohio will remain in effect through this evening. high
temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s this
afternoon. the heat index will be up to 100 degrees, especially
in the heat advisory area. overnight low temperatures tonight
will not bring much relief in the lower to middle 70s.
tomorrow`s high temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s
and lower 90s with the heat index approaching 100 degrees again.
additional heat advisories may be needed for north central and
northwest ohio again thursday. a cold front will knock the
temperatures down a little for friday into the weekend. an upper
level trough will develop over the great lakes and ohio valley
by early next week with cooler temperatures in the 70s for
highs.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
mainly vfr across the taf sites this afternoon, though some
residual pockets of lower mvfr ceilings remain out east.
anticipate ceilings to improve to at least low-end vfr at all
sites over the next couple of hours.

attention then turns towards later this afternoon and evening
for shower and thunderstorm development, mainly along and east
of the i-71 corridor. the highest confidence in direct taf
impacts resides at cle/yng/eri and has been reflected in tempo
groups with brief and abrupt wind shifts and ifr vsbys. lesser
confidence at cak/mfd, so went with a brief window of vcts.
another area of concern will be overnight along the i-75
corridor, potentially impacting tol/fdy as a line of showers and
thunderstorms moves east into ohio. lesser confidence for
impacts downstream of the i-75 corridor into thursday morning,
but will continue to monitor trends.

winds are generally out of the southwest this afternoon, 8 to 12
knots. winds will begin to favor a more westerly direction late
thursday morning and afternoon, 8 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening and overnight. non-vfr possible in a
line of showers and thunderstorms thursday night, particularly
west of the i-71 corridor. non- vfr may return in scattered
showers and thunderstorms sunday afternoon, particularly along
and east of the i-71 corridor.

&&

.marine...
the next marine concern will be late thursday night into friday
as a cold front briefly ushers in west winds of around 20
knots. at the minimum, a moderate rip risk is likely early
friday, especially across the central and eastern basin with
waves of 2 to 4 feet. a lower potential for rough marine
conditions is also possible late saturday night into sunday as
another cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of around
15 knots.

there will also be a few chances for strong thunderstorms
impacting the lake with gusty winds over the next several days.
the first chance for strong storms will be late this evening
and overnight, with a higher likelihood thursday night into
friday morning as a line of showers and storms moves east into
the area.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 101940
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
340 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

.key messages...

- a heat advisory is in effect for the area with heat indices
around 100 degrees. high temperatures around 90 degrees
coupled with very humid conditions expected. if venturing
outside, be sure to take breaks and stay hydrated. it is
likely that heat indices will reach 100 degrees again thursday
for several locations.

- chances for severe weather exist tonight and again thursday
night. damaging wind, hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two
are possible for both severe weather threats.

- next chances for showers and storms return saturday night with
another cool frontal passage, bringing cooler temperatures
into low/mid 70s to lower 80s along with decreased humidity
across the area sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 242 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

hot and humid today which will help to set up a couple more
bouts of rain and storms later today with another shortwave
rippling through the westerly flow aloft supplying a lifting
mechanism which will come in two parts. the first part will come
into the western parts of the cwa around 6 pm edt and quickly
push eastward through the rest of the area. this will be
followed by a second impulse around midnight edt. storms with
may be strong with even a few becoming severe. the limiting
factor will once again be the lower amount of shear available,
bulk shear values of 20 to 30 kts will be present so some storms
may exhibit organization. current radar imagery has a linear
mcs pushing eastward across western il/wi attm. current thinking
is that the better forcing/energy with the first impulse pushes
northeastward and will stay north of the area with a weaker line
pushing across the area. expectations for the second bout
pushing through late tonight should generally be weaker than the
first with less than ideal diurnal timing. however, main impacts
for both sets tonight will be gusty winds and moderate to heavy
rainfall. a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. spc has our
area currently under a slight risk for severe storms.

tomorrow we will once again see the hot/humid conditions with
dew points and temperatures slightly less than what we saw
today. will decide overnight on if another heat advisory may be
needed. as said yesterday, either way it will be uncomfortable
especially since we have not had much of this heat/humidity
prior to this week. this continued heat and humidity on thursday
will set the table for another chance at severe weather late on
thursday. this looks generally a better set-up for organized
storms as the main focus for the storms will be a cold front
associated with a low pressure circulation pushing northeastward
through southern wi. the cold front will push eastward into the
western portions of the cwa late in the evening tomorrow with
current timing looking right around 10 pm edt. this frontal
boundary will also allow for better lifting mechanism and a
better shear profile. low level shear around 40 to 50 kts and
helicity values around 250-300 m2/s2. also some of the forecast profile
data has effective layer stp values around 4 to 5. the thinking
is this will be a linear convective system along the boundary
with the potential for qlcs type spin ups especially for the
western portions and northern half of the cwa. so will need to
really watch this system and definitely looks interesting. spc
currently has a portion of our area in an enhanced risk for
severe weather. all threats look to be on the table with this
event including tornadoes.

cooler and drier airmass will push in behind the cold frontal
boundary on friday. highs on friday and saturday will range from
the upper 70s to mid 80s. looking like a nice couple of spring
days on friday and saturday with mostly sunny skies in store.
another cool front will approach the area late saturday into
sunday morning and bring another batch of showers and
thunderstorms with storms at this time not expected to become
severe. the front will bring a cooler airmass into the area with
high temperatures on sunday afternoon through the middle of
next week in the 70s. a shortwave moving through a zonal flow
aloft will bring a small chance of showers with perhaps a rumble
of thunder or two late monday into tuesday morning. a trough
looks to set up over the great lakes region and will bring
periods of showers to the area on tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 135 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

southwesterly winds will gust up to 25 knots at times this
afternoon in a well mixed warm sector. vfr otherwise this
afternoon with diurnal cu generally in the 3 to 5 kft range.

attention tonight will turn to the potential for a couple rounds
of convection. the first early this evening is looking more
disorganized and outflow dominant as better flow/dynamics bypass
west. better chances toward midnight and into early tomorrow as
a weakened storm complex likely tracks east into northern in.
times of vis restrictions and gusty winds will be possible with
any convection.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 101915
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
315 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

.key messages...

- a heat advisory is in effect today for areas south of m-59. heat
indices peak near 100 degrees today and again thursday.

- there is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms this
evening and overnight. damaging wind gusts are the main threat.

- there is a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms
thursday night. damaging winds, large hail, and spin-up tornadoes
are all possible.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

weak mid-level height rises have promoted scattering of morning
stratus allowing for respectable solar insolation from late morning
into this afternoon. weak warm front, that had been confined to
southern se mi, washes north in a downstream response to mid-upper
trough digging into the upper midwest/far western great lakes
through the rest of the afternoon expanding lower 70 dewpoints into
the northern cwa. despite this near-tropical near surface layer,
lingering capping inversion is expected to hold through the late
afternoon period. as we reach the early evening (~21z and after),
things get murkier wrt to the cap. an eml above 850mb, partially
sampled by ilx`s 12z raob, is progged to lift into southern lower
around roughly 21z. this feature brings steepening mid-level lapse
rates near or in excess of 7.5c/km as well as a ribbon of higher
theta-e on its lead nose. while model forecast soundings are still
spilt, there is an increasing subset that advertise this in
combination with diurnal boundary mixing/growth to weaken our cap
sufficiently to allow for at least isolated to widely scattered
convective initiation as lift associated with this buoyancy gradient
is able to connect thru to the lower level moisture. should this
occur, ample instability is available for convection with an mlcape
gradient ranging from 1500-2500j/kg and equilibrium levels between
35-40kft. main limiting factor for strong/severe storms is weaker
column wind profiles that will be largely uni-directional shear only
20-25kts at best. that said, given the humid airmass and a well
mixed boundary layer, an isolated strong wind gust would be
possible. hail threat, while non-zero, is lesser with freezing
levels near 15kft. additional hazard is torrential rainfall and
localized flooding given the aforementioned humid airmass and warm
cloud layers exceeding 10kft.

overnight period brings the next chances for showers and storms as a
series of mcs`s lift into the great lakes. first of these, currently
over wi/il, carries the best shot at any severe potential due to its
arrival window latter part of the evening into early tonight. while
there is significant uncertainty to what degree this complex holds
together all the way into se mi, dependent on cold pool maintenance,
arrival of a sw llj strengthens column wind and subsequent shear
profiles. as such, severe wind gusts would be possible with any
surviving convection through early tonight before the nocturnal
boundary layer can attempt to establish itself. a secondary
midwestern mcs looks to then cross or clip the region late tonight-
early thursday morning. minimal severe chances with this window of
showers/storms given the timing falling in the diurnal instability
minima. primary impact instead is clearing out area instability to
start thursday.

thursday is expected to be similar to today as post-convective
subsidence and diurnal mixing promote clearing skies through the
morning hours. airmass remains unchanged with dewpoints hovering in
the lower 70s with sunnier skies again allowing temperatures to
climb into the low 90s with heat indices rising to the upper 90s to
near 100.

attention then turns to severe potential thursday evening-night
where spc has the area under a day 2 slight/enhanced risk outlook.
strong pv core rounding the base of the upper midwest trough
thursday afternoon sparks convection along the attendant surface
cold front over the midwest/plains. there is high confidence this
convection to organize and grow upscale whilst crossing the
mississippi river region while approaching the great lakes/ohio
valley. where confidence is still low is in how much instability
builds back into se mi over the course of thursday. there has been a
notable shift in a number of cam outputs (ie arw, mpas, hrdps) for
the main instability to hold near the state line promoting a
southward drift in the squall favoring better severe wind potentials
over the southern portions of the cwa into in/oh. that said, still
have a set (ie hrrr, nssl, nam nest) that favor better northerly
advection and hold a more northerly track towards the central and
northern cwa-where the current day 2 enhanced risk is. regardless,
wind gusts to 70mph would be the primary hazard with qlcs tornadoes
being a secondary threat given the convective mode.

cold front crosses the area friday morning ending any lingering
showers and ushering in a more seasonably average airmass for friday
and saturday. a secondary cold front drops out of northern ontario
and through the central great lakes early sunday bringing the next
chances for wider spread showers/storms with cooler air following to
start the work week.

&&

.marine...

multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through thursday night. a front is currently draped across
region which will try to develop some convection this afternoon. a
larger complex of severe storms west of lake michigan is forecast to
track east-northeast across lower mi later this evening bringing the
next chance of severe storms to the area. could be a lull through
part of thursday before a low pressure system tracks from iowa
through the straits thursday evening into the overnight. this would
push a stronger cold front through the region with the next round of
storms. wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail would be the
main threats with these storms. this front will pass through early
friday morning, bringing an uptick in westerly winds in its wake as
well as a brief period of drier conditions to start the weekend.

&&

.hydrology...

a moisture-rich environment remains in place today and thursday with
multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the next
two days. progressive nature of expected thunderstorms generally
limits widespread flooding concerns, although heavy downpours with
rainfall rates over an inch per hour will be possible. localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but is mostly confined to low-
lying, urban, or flood prone areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt wed jun 10 2026

aviation...

with upper level ridging in place the challenge of the afternoon
forecast revolves around the evolution of capping during the late
afternoon hours. 800-700mb moisture advection will have the
opportunity to erode convective inhibition and possibly allow for
shower/convective initiation. included prob30 group for possibility
of -tsra between 23-0z. will monitor for convection to grow upscale
across portions of illinois this evening and track towards southeast
michigan between 06-09z. boundary layer clouds is anticipated again
late thursday morning.

d21/dtw convection...the potential exists for thunderstorms between
23-01z this evening. there is a potential for showers and
thunderstorms again between 06-09z tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate to high for ceiling aob 5000 feet this afternoon. high
late tonight.

* low for thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz069-070-075-076-
082-083.

lake huron...dense fog advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lhz361>363.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......drk
hydrology....mv
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.