Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
656 pm est fri jan 16 2026

.what has changed...
potential for a few heavier snow showers or squalls along and
just ahead of a cold front on saturday has increased,
especially east and southeast of the i-71 corridor.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered snow showers are expected this evening through
saturday. isolated snow squalls are possible on saturday, which
could briefly create hazardous travel conditions.

2) a prolonged period of frigid weather is expected through
tuesday night with highs in the 10s and lows in the single
digits. dangerous wind chills near -20 are possible monday into
tuesday.

3) scattered snow showers are possible early next week, with a
chance for more impactful lake effect snow monday into tuesday
across far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. confidence
in the lake effect is low to medium.

4) light snow and breezy conditions are possible wednesday into
wednesday night. some lake effect snow may linger into thursday
across the snowbelt, though confidence is low.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a broad longwave trough with various embedded shortwaves and
vort maxes will drift across the great lakes into this weekend,
with slow-moving surface low pressure moving east through the
upper great lakes and pushing a cold front east across the local
area between early saturday morning and late saturday afternoon.

a band of low-mid level warm air advection and isentropic lift
will quickly lift east-northeast across the area through early
this evening. a band of snow with this feature is ongoing across
northwest oh and will continue east, producing a brief period of
snow across northern portions of the area (lower confidence
farther south due to drier low-levels and weaker lift). snow
accumulations through this evening will be under 1", though
brief visibility drops to 1/2 of a mile have been observed
upstream...these brief embedded bursts of moderate snow may
continue to occur as the snow progresses across the area,
especially north of a findlay to akron to meadville line. a
short-lived period of reduced visibility and snow coated roads
is possible through early this evening with any moderate bursts.

a shortwave rotating through the broader great lakes trough will
lift across the upper ohio valley tonight. lift and enhanced
moisture ahead of this shortwave will graze our southeastern
counties tonight, bringing a brief period of light snow
overnight into early saturday morning. the greatest potential
for a light accumulation of up to around an inch tonight will be
southeast of a mt. vernon to erie, pa line, with any
accumulations northwest of that minimal.

a fairly strong cold front will enter northwest oh early
saturday morning and progress east across the area through the
afternoon. scattered to numerous snow showers will accompany
this feature, especially during the late morning and afternoon
hours as the front moves east of the i-71 corridor. during this
time, modest destabilization in the low-levels will contribute
to a more convective flavor to the snow showers with some
increase in large-scale lift occurring ahead of the next
embedded shortwave. this results in a lower chance (20-40%)
chance for snow showers west of i-71 increasing to 50-60%
farther east/southeast. forecast snow amounts are under an inch
across the board, though the chance does exist for a few more
convective snow showers or squalls (especially east/southeast of
i-71) to drop locally over an inch, sharply reduce visibility,
and quickly accumulate on roads producing a brief travel hazard.
above-freezing temperatures ahead of the front across the
eastern half of the area may try to limit the potential for road
impacts, though temperatures do quickly fall with the frontal
passage and the ground is colder after this morning. so,
certainly don`t want to rule out potential for impactful snow
squalls if particularly intense activity can play out. forecast
soundings depict weak cape up to about 12k feet/-25c ahead of
the front east of i-71 with mean boundary layer winds of about
30kt, so snow showers will certainly be convective (with a very
low but non-zero chance for a rumble of thunder across far
eastern oh) and produce brief gusty (up to 40 mph) winds.

after a "milder" night tonight with lows ranging from the mid
20s to lower 30s, highs on saturday will range from the upper
20s in toledo to the mid 30s in youngstown, with temperatures
beginning to drop from west to east during the afternoon.

key message 2...
saturday`s cold front will usher in the first piece of colder
air. lows will generally dip to 10-15 by sunday morning with
minimum wind chills near or slightly above 0. highs on sunday
will be on either side of 20 degrees with wind chills staying in
the single digits. sunday night will be similar to or slightly
colder than saturday night, with lows from the upper single
digits to mid 10s and minimum wind chills near 0 to a few
degrees below. an arctic cold front will cross monday, bringing
a deeper chunk of very cold air to the region. highs early
monday will range from 10-15 along the i-75 corridor to 15-20
across the eastern half of the area, with steady or falling
temperatures behind the cold front through the afternoon. it
will be quite brisk on monday with west- southwest wind gusts of
30-40 mph possible along and behind the arctic front. the
coldest night will be monday night, with lows near to a bit
below 0 across the area. wind chills should fall to -5 to -15
during the day monday and bottom out at -10 to -20 monday night
into tuesday morning. cold weather advisories will likely be
needed monday into tuesday. highs rebound into the 10s on
tuesday, with lows tuesday night generally in the single digits.

research has shown that average daily temperatures (taking the
average of the high and low for a day) of 16 degrees or lower
for 48 hours or longer yields increased infrastructure issues
due to cold in our area...this includes things like dead car
batteries and frozen pipes. we will reach these temperatures for
a marginal duration of about 48 hours between monday morning
and wednesday morning, which could be enough to cause some
infrastructure issues due to the cold.

key message 3...
some snow showers could accompany the arctic frontal passage
late sunday night into monday across the area. the greater
forcing and moisture appear to stay to our north, so any
accumulations with the arctic front look minimal with parts of
the area likely remaining entirely dry. a prolonged and
potentially significant lake effect snow event is expected off
the east end of lake erie late this weekend through the first
half of next week. predominantly southwest flow will keep the
greatest accumulations and impacts into western ny...however, a
period of more westerly flow remains possible behind the front
from some point monday into tuesday. this could lead to a
relatively brief period where impactful lake effect snow sinks
into far northeast oh and northwest pa early next week.
confidence in this occurring is low to moderate, as some models
and ensemble members are insistent on the southwest flow
persisting. those in far northeast oh/northwest pa should
monitor the forecast as we gain confidence in the placement of
any lake effect snow over the next few days.

outside of the lake effect potential across a small portion of
our forecast area and rather limited amounts of snow along the
arctic front, it will be mainly dry monday and tuesday.

key message 4...
a low pressure is expected to track through the great lakes
wednesday or wednesday night and drag a cold front across the
area. a brief spell of milder temperatures ahead of the cold
front will give way to more below average weather behind it.
this will be another breezy system, with some potential for a
bit of snow area-wide followed by lower-confidence lake effect
potential behind it wednesday night into thursday. the likely
rapid development of ice on lake erie and uncertainty over wind
direction lead to low confidence in that lake effect potential.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
ceilings will tend to be mostly mvfr through at least the first
half of tonight with a few patches of vfr expected at times. an
area of snow may impact central to east-central ohio during the
pre-dawn hours on saturday, including kcak and kyng. a few hours
of ifr visibility is expected there, with a more expansive
shield of ifr ceilings lasting through the rest of the morning
hours. a cold front crosses the region late saturday morning
through the afternoon, with additional snow showers expected.
brief ifr conditions will accompany snow showers, though there
is low confidence in timing and areal extent of showers at this
time.

south-southwest winds of around 10 knots or less will continue
overnight. winds become west while increasing to 10-15 knots
and gusts up to 20-25 knots saturday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers on monday. non-vfr
may linger in lake effect snow across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania tuesday through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
ice coverage continues to expand across the western basin of
lake erie. hazardous marine conditions across the central and
eastern basins will persist into next week as multiple systems
move across the great lakes.

southerly to southwesterly winds 15 to 25 knots continue through
this evening before diminishing to 10-15 knots. maintained
current small craft advisories but a new set of advisories will
need to be issued to cover the next round of elevated winds and
waves on lake erie. southwesterly winds will increase to 20-25
knots saturday afternoon and remain elevated through sunday.
southwesterly winds increase to 25-30 knots late sunday into
monday. there remains the potential for gale force winds monday
into tuesday as winds increase again to 30-35 knots. given the
arctic airmass moving over the lake and strong winds, heavy
freezing spray remains a concern early next week. winds will
gradually diminish to 15-25 knots late tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez146-
147.
small craft advisory until 1 am est saturday for lez148-149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
708 pm est fri jan 16 2026

.key messages...
- additional isolated to scattered snow showers are possible
tonight, but little to no snow accumulation is expected.

- lake effect snow chances will increase again later saturday
afternoon into saturday night with some light snow
accumulations possible.

- much colder temperatures are in store for the weekend with
another clipper system bringing renewed light snow and lake
effect snow chances sunday and sunday night.

- dangerous wind chills around 15 below zero are expected both
sunday night and monday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 340 pm est fri jan 16 2026

the band of snow which brought light snow accumulations to the
region has departed to the east as a strong mid/upper level frontal
zone departs. some drier mid level air has advected into
northern indiana behind the accompanying upper level wave. one
area of lingering snow showers is across north central indiana
in closer proximity to pocket of colder mid level temperatures.
looking upstream, scattered snow showers have developed across
central illinois which appear to be aided by some fairly strong
differential thermal advection leading to some available very
weak sfc/near sfc based instability. some question as to how
these isolated snow showers will be maintained eastward early
this evening as local area is positioned between stronger mid
level waves. some composite low level troughing could be one
positive factor toward maintaining isolated/scattered snow
showers into western indiana this evening. it still appears
better chance of scattered snow showers will be more in the late
evening/early overnight period as stronger low level
baroclinicity shifts eastward. some better coverage snow
showers are currently across south central/southeast iowa at
leading edge of this stronger baroclinic zone. will maintain low
to mid range chance pops following the eastward shift of this
low level front later tonight, and also coincident with approach
of next more pronounced sheared mid level short wave. while a
few of these snow showers may be more vigorous given steep low
level lapse rates, overall organization should be lacking given
flow fields will only be weakly frontogenetic (perhaps a broken
line of snow showers). overall, given cellular nature and
stronger mid/upper support remaining to the south across the
ohio valley, expecting little to no accumulation most
locations.

on saturday, another surge of drier mid level air is expected behind
the morning short wave. the primary upper low across the mid ms
valley will dig southeast, and will reach central in by later
saturday night. some better low/mid level moisture recovery should
occur late saturday afternoon into saturday night. this should
reinvigorate some lake effect snow showers across southwest
lower michigan given westerly fetch. some weak deformation
forcing to the northwest of this trough may also aid in some
light lake effect snow accumulations later saturday
afternoon/saturday night. the strong cold advection and snow
cover will limit temp response on saturday, with a likely near
steady temperature trend in afternoon in the 20 to 25 degree
range.

another clipper system is expected to reinforce low level cold
air late sunday into monday with a potential of some system
light snow accumulations and another westerly fetch lake effect
setup for mainly southern lower michigan. snow accumulations
could be in the 1-3 to 2- 4" range for the lake effect portion
of this event given the duration from sunday night through
monday. some weak fgen contribution is also possible with these
lake effect snow showers as the strong thermal trough slides to
the south of great lakes modified low level environment.

dangerously cold conditions will end up being the main forecast
concern from sunday night through tuesday with a potential of a few
nights of wind chills reaching advisory criteria. conditions should
moderate slightly toward latter portions of next week as large scale
flow beings to lose some amplitude. consensus medium range guidance
in this deamplifying pattern would maintain strong baroclinicity
across the region through late work week that would make the
area susceptible to additional progressive low amplitude waves
late in this period. in this pattern, low snow chances were
maintained through much of the extended period with below normal
temps continuing.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 656 pm est fri jan 16 2026


scattered snow showers in the wake of an initial cold front
moving through the area which will bring mvfr cigs and vsbys in
light snow showers with minimal accumulations through 04z sat.
the snow showers will then diminish except for some remaining
les showers for southwestern mi within the more westerly flow
in the wake of the cold frontal passage. improvement to vfr
conditions are expected to return after 05z sat for ksbn and
after 11z sat for kfwa. westerly winds will be on the increase
by saturday afternoon as colder near surface temperatures allows
for diurnal mixing. gusts up to 25 knots possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1011 pm est fri jan 16 2026

.key messages...

- chance for scattered snow showers tonight and overnight, most
favorable through the tri-cities and thumb. continued chance for
flurries to light snow through saturday.

- progressively colder each day through the weekend, with frigid and
blustery conditions monday through wednesday. wind chills to or
below 0 degrees monday morning through wednesday morning.

- dangerously cold wind chills near -15f will be possible tuesday
morning.

&&

.update...

with a fairly high number of surface observations reporting up or -ra
over the northern cwa and upstream across portions of western lower
michigan decided to include a chance of freezing drizzle tonight.
traffic data suggests some slow going across portions of midland
county and with cold ground/surface temperatures this could be some
impact from the freezing drizzle. no significant impacts are
expected as precipitation type should favor snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 634 pm est fri jan 16 2026

aviation...

a low confidence forecast ahead for timing and duration of any snow
shower activity as cold cyclonic flow will remain in place. upper
level height and kinematic fields suggest southwest orientated jet
axis will remain immediately to the southeast of the terminal sites
which will effectively guide various shortwave maxima directly
across the state throughout the 24 hour period. did account for the
arrival of a 950-800mb thetae plume as it will be advected into the
northern taf sites 00-04z this evening. have included a prevailing
mvfr visibility restriction with light snow and tempo ifr at kmbs
and kfnt. farther south, midlevel dry slot does appear to hold this
evening with mean flow keeping low level moisture north. there is
some signal that higher midlevel saturation will push out of portions
of il and in late tonight and stream across the detroit terminals.
it is possible that saturation will be enough to allow for some snow
shower between 07-10z. low confidence in occurrence and kept it at a
prob30. breezy southwest flow saturday with a better chance for
prevailing light snow showers saturday afternoon and kfnt and kmbs.

for dtw...dryslot appears to hold over dtw this evening favoring dry
conditions. some potential exists for light snow activity between 07-
10z saturday morning but low confidence.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft through the forecast.

* high for precipitation type of snow tonight.

* low confidence in visibility restrictions to 1/2sm in falling
snow tonight or saturday.

prev discussion...
issued at 341 pm est fri jan 16 2026

discussion...

at present, the better coverage of light snow now resides in the
thumb through port huron area as an upper-level wave vacates the
great lakes. some lingering coverage is also observed through the
tri-cities closer to where the occluded low pressure system resides.

for the remainder of the evening and into the early morning hours...
advent of dry air through the low-levels will reduce the integrity
of moisture quality through the dgz up from the border to around the
m59 corridor, bringing the very low-end chance for patchy freezing
drizzle. the moisture depths from the surface to 5kft are poor and do
not support a robust fz dz signal, thus confidence remains low for
materialization.

overnight through the late morning hours, a trough of arctic air
will descend through the plains late tonight, accelerating ahead of
a strong arctic high, which will start to wrap into the great lakes
as the aforementioned low pressure system gradually weakens and
exits into canada. the favorable west flow and enhancement of lake
moisture advection from the initial edge of cold air advection will
increase snow shower chances overnight for all of se mi. the better
coverage will reside m59 north and increasingly so across the tri-
cities noting the more favorable ssw flow and thus alignment of
better lake moisture in conjunction some enhanced lift along the
leading edge of the cold air. a very transient band of elevated snow
rates will be possible with this feature, leading to variable
accumulations of a dusting up to an inch. for the remainder of the
day, flurries to light snow showers remain possible as westerly flow
holds steady. 0-1km lapse rates remain sufficient to sustain minor
accumulation potential, again hedging the northern half of the cwa
as most favorable for some better snow rates, where stronger
troughing resides. but overall this setup affords continuing chances
to grind out light snow and minor accumulations through the day.

throughout sunday, winds back to the southwest, briefly ending lake
effect snow chances. this will be short-lived as cold air settles
over the great lakes. amplification of the upper-level trough
commences early next week with an even stronger push of arctic air
extending well into the great lakes, bringing the start of what will
be an extended window of below normal temperatures an active
conditions from both lake effect and potential clipper systems. the
leading edge of the arctic air early monday brings likely lake
effect snow chances along with the possibility for snow squalls
under the backdrop of multiple upper-level waves and continued cold
air advection. highs in the 20s sunday drop into the low teens
monday morning with wind chills in the negative single digits as
mixing depths increase. very cold monday as the apex of the trough
arrives monday evening where projected 850mb temperatures drop aob -
20c and 500mb temperatures aob -40c. highs remain capped in the
teens with wind gusts on the order of 30-40 mph maintaining wind
chills in the negative single digits. overnight lows near zero bring
wind chills in the negative teens tuesday morning with highs again
in the teens tuesday. some potential for a slight warm up into the
midweek, however, temperatures are projected to remain below normal
through the forecast period.

marine...

low pressure drifts eastward across the straits tonight causing
southerly winds to veer toward the southwest. this leads to
heightened waves across portions of the southern lake huron
nearshores, thus a short duration small craft advisory was issued. a
constricted pressure gradient develops saturday afternoon given the
slow departure of low pressure and inbound high pressure. this
yields sustained winds between 20 and 25 knots. additional small
craft advisories will likely be needed for high waves and gusts
approaching 30 knots. weak troughing competes with high pressure on
sunday to keep winds and waves elevated. a large and deepening low
pressure system races through sunday night into monday offering the
next opportunity for gusts to gales amidst a strong surge of arctic
air. freezing spray issues are also expected during this very cold
and wind period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 1 pm saturday to 4 am est sunday for
lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 11 pm est this evening for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......cb
aviation.....cb
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.