Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
150
fxus61 kcle 262330
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
630 pm est thu feb 26 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast continues to trend warmer for friday. projected
snow accumulations for saturday night continue to trend upward,
albeit slightly. still expect the greatest snow accumulations
from another round of snow to be focused just south of our
region this sunday night into monday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) dry weather and overall moderation in air temperatures
are expected through saturday.

2.) snow is expected saturday night. total snow accumulations
should be mainly one inch or less.

3.) after a brief period of quiet weather during the day on
sunday, unsettled weather is expected to return sunday night
through this upcoming thursday.

&&

.discussion...
1.) net low-level waa continues to develop across our region
today and then persists on friday as a ridge axis at the
surface and aloft continues to crest e`ward across our cwa today
and then becomes located to our east on friday. lows in the
upper teens to upper 20`s are still expected around daybreak
friday. late afternoon highs should then reach the mid 40`s to
lower 50`s in nw pa and mainly the 50`s in northern oh as
abundant sunshine and daytime warming are complemented by
somewhat breezy s`erly to sw`erly surface winds associated with
the aforementioned waa. for context, normal highs are near 40f
and normal lows are near 25f this time of year in our cwa. dry
weather persists as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
ridge.

during friday night through saturday, the ridge continues to
exit e`ward as cyclonic w`erly flow aloft becomes established
over our region. in addition, a surface cold front starved of
low-level moisture and exhibiting subtle slope should sweep
se`ward through our region saturday morning. behind the front,
a weak surface ridge should nose into our region from the
north-central united states and vicinity. thus, dry weather
should persist. overnight lows should reach mainly the 30`s
friday night. saturday`s late afternoon highs should reach the
40`s to lower 50`s amidst peeks of sunshine and very weak low-
level caa behind the front.

2.) during saturday night, cyclonic w`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances affect our region as the aforementioned
surface ridge continues to nose into our region. the cold air
mass deepens as the upper-reaches of the aforementioned cold
front sweep se`ward through our region, which should be
accompanied by a frontogenetical deformation zone. moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and
associated with the frontogenetical convergence zone should
trigger a fairly brief period of snow across our region. in
addition, a sufficiently cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric
column and nnw`erly mean low-level flow over/downwind of the
~1c ice-free waters of lake erie, weak lake-induced cape, and
the seeder-feeder process should permit a period of lake-
enhanced snow (lens) to occur generally south of lake erie,
especially the central and eastern portions of the lake. total
snow accumulations are still expected to be mainly 1" or less in
our cwa, but localized totals of 2-3" are not out of the
question due to the lens. overnight lows should reach the upper
teens to mid 20`s around daybreak sunday.

3.) stabilizing subsidence and dry weather should impact our
region on sunday as w`erly flow aloft becomes anticyclonic
briefly as a shortwave ridge moves e`ward across our region and
the surface ridge continues to build from the upper midwest and
vicinity. late afternoon highs should reach the 20`s in nw pa
and mainly the mid 20`s to mid 30`s in northern oh amidst
continued low-level caa. during sunday night through monday
night, primarily cyclonic w`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances should affect our region as we remain
within the cold sector, the aforementioned surface ridge
continues to affect our cwa, and the embedded high pressure
center should move from near the central great lakes toward the
gulf of maine. moist isentropic ascent ahead of a stronger
shortwave trough axis should allow periods of primarily light
snow to impact our region sunday night into monday. nwp model
guidance continues to suggest the axis of greatest snow amounts
will be located south of our cwa and near the i-70 corridor.
based on latest model trends, a coating to 2" of widespread snow
accumulation is possible in our cwa from this round of snow.
stay tuned to forecast updates. stabilizing subsidence behind
the stronger shortwave trough axis should contribute to dry
weather monday night. below-normal temperatures are expected
sunday night through monday night as we remain in the cold
sector.

weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft is less
certain tuesday through thursday given sizable spread in nwp
model guidance. in general, cyclonic w`erly to sw`erly flow
aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should affect northern
oh and nw pa. a warm front should sweep generally n`ward through
our region on tuesday and allow near-normal high temperatures
to return. near-normal or above-normal temperatures should then
affect our region tuesday night through thursday as the
aforementioned front potentially wavers between the southern
great lakes and oh valley as multiple mid-latitude cyclones
develop and move generally e`ward along the front, yet
primarily waa at the surface and aloft affects our region.
periods of precip, mainly in the form of rain, are expected
tuesday through thursday due, in part to moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the front and ahead of shortwave
trough axes. however, wet snow may mix with rain at times during
the early morning hours of tuesday through thursday.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is ongoing across the entire area and is expected to
continue through the taf period. for this update, maintained a
brief tempo for bkn035 at all sites early friday, though
confidence in this has diminished. if trends continue, will
likely remove it as needed with the 6z set of tafs. light and
variable winds will be the story tonight into friday morning,
outside of cle and eri were a slightly more defined sse wind (at
less than 10 knots) will likely develop overnight. winds turn
more south-southwest at 10-15kt with a gust 20-25kt gusts later
friday morning and afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in snow saturday night
into sunday in snow. non-vfr possible again in snow sunday
night into monday, mainly along and south of us-30.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week as
much of the nearshore waters remain ice-covered. the main
concern for elevated winds will be late friday into saturday
when southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold
front which could result in additional shifting of ice across
lake erie. as the cold front moves east across the lake on
saturday, winds will shift towards the north, 10 to 15 knots.
onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will then persist through monday,
before gradually favoring a more southeast direction by tuesday,
around 10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sullivan
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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736
fxus63 kiwx 262350
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
650 pm est thu feb 26 2026

.key messages...

- a warm day is in store on friday with highs into the 50s and
some 60s in areas south of us-30. it`ll also be a relatively
breezy day.

- the next chance of snow arrives late saturday with a 20 percent
chance of accumulations totaling 1 inch north of the toll road.

- more snow is possible sunday night into early monday but
confidence in location and amounts is very low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 121 pm est thu feb 26 2026

surface high pressure continues to slide east today and a warm
advection wing on its backside associated with a clipper system in
south-central canada allows for warming temperatures on friday
securely into the 50s with some 60s possible south of us-30,
especially in our southwest. this setup will also allow for dry
weather across the area today and friday. given the dry air
associated with the surface high and warming temps on friday as well
as a low level jet just to our north, mixing may allow for 25
to 30 mph gusts friday. those gusts do run into the warm
advection though so they may get weakened some and shut off
early as a result.

the clipper in canada quickly translates eastward towards southeast
canada friday night/saturday morning, opening the door for the
usually strong high pressure at the clipper`s heels to begin
nudging into the conus, across the northern plains. on the
southern periphery of the surface high, a baroclinic zone is
created and will help to guide the next wave toward the region.
given its relatively weak forcing, models are having a hard time
agreeing on the track for a disturbance with snow. much more of
the guidance is across central/ southern lower michigan, but
the gfs is a little farther southward with its precipitation
track, extending into indiana. the gfs and the nam are in a camp
with around 2 inches north of us-6. both the gfs and nam bufkit
soundings have moisture in the dgz with some omega in the dgz,
but extending slightly below it. the best looking ingredients
for snow appear to be saturday night as the f-gen band passes
through. taking a look at model statistics, only 15 to 30
percent of models have greater than 1 inch and that resides
mainly north of us-6 between 12z sat and 12z sun. the
aforementioned surface high pressure moves through the area
sunday allowing for a brief period of dry weather, but also
ushering in the colder temperatures. friday`s highs in the 50s
and 60s will drop back to the 30s and 40s on saturday, but will
stay between the upper 20s and mid 30s on sunday.

our next system comes in later sunday/sunday night. the upper jets
are still struggling to completely phase and so this system
comes with track and intensity disagreements likely because of
the weak forcing associated with it. it does look like there is
a moisture connection to the gulf that could help with snowfall
production. the gfs has come a little closer to the ecmwf even
if the gfs is still a little on the fast side. gfs has 1 to 4
inches south of us-30 whereas the ecmwf has more like 2 to 6
inches south of us-30. we`ll be keeping an eye out for advisory
level snow for this event.

beyond the sun/mon system, warm advection ensues monday into
tuesday with the surface high to our east and the pattern
flipping to more of a trough in the west and ridge in the east
pattern as an upper low dives southeast across the southwest
conus. moisture shifts northeastward tuesday as the baroclinic
zone which has stayed to our south moves northward as a warm
front. depending on the state of the snow and how quickly we are
able to warm up, could see some onset mixing of snow/rain and
maybe some freezing types in there tuesday before it changes to
rain later tuesday/tuesday night.

the aforementioned upper low across the sw conus arrives later next
week with more rain and perhaps some thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 650 pm est thu feb 26 2026

primarily vfr conditions are expected for this forecast cycle. a
moisture-lacking upper level short wave will exit the region
tonight resulting in diminishing mid level cloud by late
evening/overnight. some patchy shallow fog is a low possibility
tonight on western periphery of departing low level cyclone,
with expected diminishing clouds helping radiational cooling.
however, lack of moisture depth and maintenance of some low
level gradient makes this probability too low at terminals for
inclusion with the 00z tafs. after a strong low level inversion
to start the day friday, low level mixing should support some
southerly gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range by around the
midday period. dry weather will persist through the period, with
just an expected increase in mid level warm advection clouds
friday pm.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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588
fxus63 kdtx 262024
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
324 pm est thu feb 26 2026

.key messages...

- warmer and breezy friday - southwest wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph in
the afternoon.

- a 40 to 60 percent chance of snow late saturday with minor
accumulations where snow occurs.

- colder sunday, then a warming trend through next week.

&&

.discussion...

surface anticyclone is spreading into the eastern great lakes, with
burgeoning southwest flow advecting in milder conditions this
afternoon. temperatures peak in the upper 30s south to around 30
north, up from morning lows in the single digits and teens. spotty
light snow showers associated with a weakening northern stream wave
are spreading into northern lower this afternoon, with a very low
chance for some of these to move across the saginaw valley or
northern thumb tonight. model soundings continue to indicate too
much dry air for the weak forcing this far south to overcome, so
will keep the forecast dry. the milder air, higher dew points, and
increased cloud cover will keep low temps relatively milder in the
20s friday morning.

southwest flow strengthens on friday as a stronger wave moves across
northern ontario. this system will be deepening through the day with
its llj increasing to 50 to 60 kt over se mi by the evening. gusty
winds can be expected by afternoon but much of the momentum will be
trapped above the developing inversion - gusts are most likely to
peak in the 30 to 40 mph range at the surface. warm and dry air will
advect in to result in highs in the lower 50s across much of the
area, though the thumb and saginaw valley are more likely to reach
the mid to upper 40s. weak low-level moisture advection precludes a
pop mention but should see some intervals of mid/high cloud. the
associated dry cold front passes through overnight into early
saturday to produce a cooling trend through the weekend.

as the front settles south on saturday, a shortwave will pass over
the elevated frontal slope draped over the area to trigger a period
of fgen forced snowfall during the afternoon and evening. 12z
guidance has come into better agreement for placement of the west-
east oriented qpf axis south of i-69, which could be relatively
narrow given the nature of forcing. however, there is still an
appreciable spread in qpf amounts within the ensemble space with nbm
qmd fields showing 25th percentile amounts at 0.00" and 75th at
nearly 0.25". despite the cold air advection, daytime heating will
provide a slight boost in temps to around 40 for metro detroit and
areas south. to the north, highs peak in the 30s. there will also be
a fair amount of remnant low-level dry air to contend with during
the afternoon, and with the mild temps confidence is low on
accumulation during the afternoon. temps then trend below freezing
during the evening bringing higher confidence for minor
accumulations of around a half inch to inch. should the higher end
of qpf be realized, snow totals of 2 to 3 inches would be plausible
in a narrow swath.

the cooler air fully settles in for the late weekend as arctic high
pressure passes through the northern great lakes. temps are
currently favored to be on the cool side of normal, with highs
sunday in the 20s and lower 30s and lows sunday/monday morning in
the teens. monday will be a period to watch for another round of
elevated fgen snowfall across the south as roughly 30 to 40% of
grand ensemble members (mainly ens and geps) clip the southern cwa
with accumulating snow. growing confidence then exists for a warming
trend through the late week as a trough digs into the western conus.
mild and moist southwest flow becomes directed toward the great
lakes with potential for several rounds of rainfall from late
wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.marine...

a weak system slides across the northern great lakes tonight
bringing a modest uptick in southwesterly winds towards 20-25kts.
associated snow showers will be confined to the northern half of
lake huron and generally light. after a brief relaxation in the wind
early friday morning, southwest winds restrengthen through the day
as strong low pressure works across northern ontario. despite 45-
55kt winds developing aloft during this timeframe, milder airmass
still expected to greatly limit overlake mixing capping potential
peak wind gusts near 30kts. an arctic cold front quickly follows
friday night ushering in a much colder airmass as well supporting a
5-8hr window for northwest gusts to exceed 34kts over the northern
third of lake huron (currently 80% probability to reach gales) with
lower potential (~30%) to exceed 40kts for a few hours. freezing
spray will accompany these stronger winds including potential for
some areas of heaving freezing spray particularly in the
northernmost portions of the lake huron open waters. a gale watch
remains in effect north of sturgeon point friday night through early
saturday morning. strong high pressure then builds over the central
great lakes sunday supporting lighter winds and dry conditions to
close out the weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1237 pm est thu feb 26 2026

aviation...

surface high pressure positioned overhead this afternoon drifts
eastward while maintaining control of conditions across se mi
through this evening. it keeps the low levels free of clouds while
varying amounts of mid and high coverage move across the great lakes
from low pressure in central canada. as this low approaches northern
ontario, cloud layer wind increases from the sw tonight which
carries in borderline vfr/mvfr clouds from the midwest on the
leading edge of milder air. these clouds track across lower mi from
about midnight into sunrise friday and then clear eastward during
the morning. precipitation struggles to reach this far south leaving
vfr above 5000 ft and increasingly gusty sw wind as the weather
highlights for the remainder of friday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from friday evening through saturday morning for lhz361-
362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......kdk
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.