Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 090619
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
219 am edt wed sep 9 2026

.what has changed...
main focus for storms is trending slightly earlier than previous
forecasts while the main cold frontal passage may be later into
thursday at this point.

&&

.key messages...
1) storms to fire ahead of a cold front this afternoon into early
tonight with a severe potential.

2) high pressure for the end of the week and into the early weekend,
but turning unsettled again sunday through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dewpoints will surge into the lower 70s today adding to the surface
based cape for the region with a prefrontal trough that will also be
working its way into and through the cwa. meanwhile, a weak upper
level trough axis will also track into the area from the west,
aiding in the formation of a subtle surface low moving through
northern ohio towards western pennsylvania later this afternoon. as
convection fires, development of this surface low could aid in
enhancement of it and/or add to additional areal coverage heading
into the evening hours for the eastern cwa. off the surface, low
level jet enhancement also occurs after 21z today while 0-6km shear
increases to 45-55kts in this setup, supporting line segment/qlcs
formation. models also continue to show a dry layer of air between
around 600-650mb with the cape stretching into and above this layer,
adding a mechanism to enhance downdrafts and a damaging wind threat
coupled with the low mid level flow in place. going back to the
aforementioned surface low development, this adds a backing element
to the surface winds and adds to the low level helicity variable, so
isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. as the convection exits
overnight, another upper level trough axis digs into the southern
great lakes from the west keeping shower and storm chances going in
the southern zones thursday as the frontal boundary lingers over
central/southern ohio.


key message 2...
high pressure moves in for friday into the weekend, but weakness in
the upper level mass fields brings back chances for showers/storms
late saturday and through early next week as the pattern becomes
more unsettled once again. low end pops sunday through monday become
more numerous and greater in coverage ahead of the next cold front
around the tuesday time frame. after cooler end of the week
conditions, temperatures will push back into the mid 80s by tuesday
while dewpoint sunday through tuesday will be back into the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr across the taf sites early this morning with deterioration
to ifr possible this afternoon and evening in showers and
thunderstorms well ahead of a cold front. favored a slightly
later timing for tsra impacts to taf sites, though could see a
few sites needing to be bumped up a couple of hours east of i-71
as an early round of storms may develop along residual outflow
boundaries from overnight convection.

the greatest potential for strong to severe storms will be
along and east of the i-71 corridor where wind gusts up to 35
knots have been introduced. targeted higher wind gusts in the 40
to 50-knot range may be needed in future updates if confidence
in direct impacts increases.

winds will generally favor a south to southwest direction today,
increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range with periodic gusts of
20 to 25 knots possible later this afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings/fog thursday morning.
additional scattered showers are possible through thursday,
generally along and south of the us-30 corridor. non-vfr may
return for the weekend in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
there will be a brief window for a lake breeze this afternoon
with a east-northeast wind 5 to 10 knots and a light chop of
waves around a foot. southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots tonight, becoming west-southwesterly ahead of a cold
front on wednesday 15 to 20 kts. marine zones offshore of
cleveland and eastward will see wave of 3 to 4 feet. a small
craft advisory may be needed for wednesday. a broken line of
storms are expected ahead of the cold front late wednesday.
winds northwesterly 10 to 15 knots are expected in the wake of
the cold front wednesday night through thursday night with wave
heights 1 to 3 feet. high pressure will build over the lake on
friday with light northeast winds 5 to 10 knots and waves of 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...kahn
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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264
fxus63 kiwx 091059
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
659 am edt wed sep 9 2026

.key messages...

- a warm and more humid airmass will be in place into early
thursday. cloud cover and precipitation may cause large
variations in temperatures wednesday.

- there is a 30% to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms
wednesday through early thursday morning. there is a marginal
risk for isolated severe storms between 3-9 pm et this eve,
mainly along and south of us 24. heavy rain, lightning, and
isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threats in the
strongest storms

- there is a moderate swim risk for northern berrien county, mi
beaches along lake mi today, and for all of berrien county, mi
and la porte county, in thursday. breaking waves and currents
are expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 428 am edt wed sep 9 2026

a pre-frontal trough will cross the area from west to east today,
bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. spc has areas
generally along and south of us 24 in a marginal risk for isolated
strong-severe storms, but confidence in this occurring is low. if
stronger storms do develop, they will not be widespread. the main
threat would be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
downpours. area in the marginal risk should have better instability
as the feature moves through towards the mid-late afternoon hours
(1500 j/kg), with about 20-30 knots of 0-6 km agl shear (better
shear arrives in the late afternoon, but it`s disjointed from the
better instability). plenty of moisture around with dewpoints in the
60s, 70s. high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s
along/north of us 24, and the upper 80s further south. heat indices
in the southern areas could reach into the low-mid 90s during peak
heating this afternoon.

southerly winds will strengthen slightly out of the southwest
through the day, with a period of westerly flow possible briefly
behind the passing trough. waves on lake mi around st. joseph,
mi northward may climb to around 2-3 feet by mid afternoon, and
around 1-2 feet further south. have a moderate swim risk for
lake mi beaches along the northern berrien county, mi shoreline
today (including silver beach county park and tiscornia park).
waves reach around 2-3 feet for southern berrien county, mi and
la porte county, in by thursday as well with northerly flow
picking up slightly tonight into thu. have a moderate swim risk
for both counties accordingly. today, a moderate to strong south
to north flowing longshore current is expected, which will lead
to strong structural currents on the south side of
piers/breakwalls. rip currents are possible within the sandbars.
all current types are possible on thursday.

becoming cooler and less humid behind a passing cold front on
thursday. chances (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms remain
mainly along/south of us 30 during this period. severe weather is
not expected. it`s possible that the front reaches further south at
a quicker pace than currently forecast, which would reduce pops for
thursday all together. highs will be around 80 degrees, with lows in
the 50s, low 60s.

while we will still have weak upper trough overhead on friday (some
models suggest more riding), surface high pressure remains in
control with easterly flow in the low levels. most of the guidance
remains dry in this period, with the exception being the far south
where some models produce light precip. left out for now given low
confidence. highs will be around 80 degrees, with lows in the 50s,
low 60s.

highs warm back into low-mid 80s for the weekend into monday, with
an upper level ridge friday night becoming more zonal with time,
leaving us susceptible to shortwaves kicking off showers and storms.
have low chances (20-30%) each day through the period. better
potential (30-50% chances) arrive mid-late week as an upper level
low drops into the northern plains and a broad surface low
developing near ia deepens and lifts into ontario/quebec. this will
bring a cold front through sometime between tue-wed. highs remain in
the upper 70s, low-mid 80s, coolest wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 652 am edt wed sep 9 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals with a pre-frontal
through moving through. mvfr periods are possible with any
heavier showers/isolated storms today, first at ksbn this
morning then at kfwa late morning into the afternoon. added a
chance for thunder at kfwa around 18-22z, and have showers prior
to that with potential for ceilings around 2500 ft. upstream obs
do show some lower ceilings, but uncertain if they will survive
as the trough moves eastward. s-se winds (calm right now at
kfwa) initially become more westerly through the period. there
could be a rumble of thunder at ksbn through early afternoon,
but confidence was too low to include right now (trends west
have been on the decrease). br/fg is possible at both sites, but
especially kfwa late tonight into thu am, but confidence was too
low to include a formal mention in the taf. most likely time
would be 9-12z.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 091017
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
617 am edt wed sep 9 2026

.key messages...

- showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms today.

- dry weather with near-normal, pleasant temperatures returns for
thursday and friday.

&&

.aviation...

an axis of deep layer moisture residing across southern michigan
within a broad diffuse frontal region will sustain occasional showers
today. this will be enhanced by weak mid level short wave impulses
rippling along this region of moisture. latest guidance suggests
limited instability will keep thunderstorm chances low (below 30
percent) and thus not mentioned in the tafs. gradual low level
moistening within the showers and pool of low level moisture
overhead will increase the chances for some intervals of low clouds
today. recent guidance suggests some mvfr with perhaps a few areas
of ifr impacting fnt and mbs late this morning into mid afternoon.
the chances for lower clouds (mvfr based) increase across the metro
detroit terminals late this afternoon. some potential breaks in the
showers this afternoon, especially across fnt and mbs, will offer
the potential for a little better diurnal mixing to support wsw wind
gusts over 20 knots at times.

d21/dtw convection...although a few embedded thunderstorms within
the broad region of showers are possible through the day today, the
better chances for more organized deep convection will be late this
afternoon and evening generally across the extreme southern portions
of the airspace and into northern ohio.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

* low for thunderstorms today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 311 am edt wed sep 9 2026

discussion...

scattered showers have spread across most of the area overnight as
the prefrontal moisture belt has arrived. 850-700 moisture advection
is bringing pwats over 1.7 inches already this morning with around 2
inches slated for this afternoon. warm sector profiles with a wealth
of moisture will lead to poor lapse rates through the day with
minimal cape values (max values around 200 j/kg). there has been no
lightning as of 06z in the vicinity, but there are some more
moderate showers reach up to around 35kft so with the addition of up
to a couple hundred j/kg of cape this morning and the low level jet
flaring up to around 40 knots through the morning and into the
afternoon, we could get a few thunderstorms. new spc day 1 continues
the former day 2 outlook with marginal risk of severe storms
clipping lenawee and monroe counties. this is the area that could
possibly draw up the most instability ahead of the cold front later
this afternoon to go with the ample shear present already. any
stronger storm may produce gusty winds with the strong flow just off
the deck, and damaging wind would be the primary threat with any
severe storms. heavy rainfall will also be a threat today with any
training cells due to high moisture content and potential training
along the prefrontal axis.

the prefrontal trough will clear the area by this evening with the
cold front following by morning. won`t see a big drop off in temps
thursday (mid to upper 70s) as the thermal trough lags behind the
front and will arrive later in the day thursday, but the dewpoint
drop off will make it feel more pleasant with lower humidity. the
thermal trough then hangs around a couple days to close out the work
week with 850mb temps around 10c. high pressure at the surface and
low amplitude longwave ridge will lead to a quiet couple days. next
chance of showers comes late saturday as the next cold front
approaches. at this point both the ecmwf and gfs stall the front
over northern mi with the bulk of the forcing holding to the north,
so will keep it at a slight chance for now.

marine...

moderate southwesterly winds set up this morning as seasonably
strong low pressure system tracks across southern canada into hudson
bay. while a gust or two two could reach entry-level gales over
central lake huron, winds are expected to peak around 30kts. small
craft advisories are in effect for the saginaw bay/tip of the thumb
through this evening as a result. return of a humid airmass back to
the region will support shower and thunderstorm chances for much of
the day before the attendant cold front crosses late evening.
moderate northwesterly flow follows for thursday however only a
glancing shot of cold advection and a rapidly diminishing gradient
has high pressure builds caps winds aob 30kts. high pressure then
drifts overhead through friday night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.