Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
205
fxus61 kcle 051740
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
140 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

.what has changed...
the severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled as of 6 am. no
additional strong to severe storms are expected for the
remainder of today.

&&

.key messages...
1) thunderstorms (some strong to severe) will continue to move
southeast across the area over the next several hours, mainly
impacting locations on a line from findlay to mount vernon.

2) seasonable and dry weather is expected for much of the
holiday weekend. a brief period of unsettled weather may return
by mid- next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite reveals an organized cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms moving southeast along a narrow
instability gradient across portions of northwest and north-
central ohio early this morning, supported by modest northwest
shear of 30 to 35 knots. damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph remain
the primary concern with this area of convection as it exits
south and east of the area by around sunrise. a severe
thunderstorm watch remains in effect for this area until 8 am.

otherwise, a cold front will move south through the area today,
ushering in a cooler and less humid air mass into the region.
this could result in some scattered showers or isolated
thunderstorms, though strong to severe storms are not expected.

key message 2...
high pressure will begin to build south across the great lakes
late saturday and persist into early next week. the latest
trends favor seasonable and mainly dry weather during this
timeframe with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and less
humidity.

will then begin watching the next system by mid-next week as
another upper-level ridge builds east across the central and
eastern conus, followed by the passage of a strong upper-level
trough moving east through the upper great lakes. shower and
thunderstorms chances will increase beginning wednesday
afternoon and evening, with the potential continuing into
thursday, though uncertainty remains on storm coverage.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
scattered clouds between 2-5kft continue to stream southeast
across the area this afternoon, resulting in patchy mvfr
conditions at terminals extending from near toledo (tol) toward
akron (cak). in addition, isolated light showers have developed
along this boundary but should not have any impact to terminals
including vsby or lightning. as the boundary continues to shift
south, dry and widespread vfr conditions and will return and
persist for the remainder of the weekend.

north to northwest winds of 5-10 knots will persist through the
period with occasional gusts nearest the lakeshore on sunday up
to 20 knots.

outlook...non- vfr possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
as a cold front moves south of the area today, north to
northeast winds will gradually increase to 10-20 knots into
monday. this wind direction should result in waves building
across the central basin to 2-4 feet. there may need to be a
small craft advisory, especially for sunday afternoon, but given
the overall weak flow and very marginal conditions opted to not
issue one now. calm conditions return monday evening through
tuesday before a more robust low pressure system impacts the
region on wednesday. the increased gradient with this midweek
system should increase southwest winds to 20-25 knots and will
likely require additional marine headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
403
fxus63 kiwx 051726
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- showers and some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this
afternoon into the evening before sunset as a cold front
pushes south. a strong storm or two could be observed.

- second half of the holiday weekend will be dry and seasonably
pleasant.

- temperatures and humidity will increase somewhat tuesday into
wednesday, but not to the levels of this past week.

- chances for showers and storms (20 to 30%) return mainly
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

the holiday weekend started off on the warm, humid and for some
stormy side. however, the pesky upper ridge aiding in this pattern
will retrograde somewhat and allow a brief return to more seasonable
temperatures (around 80 in the afternoon and 50s at night) through
the remainder of the extended weekend. thereafter, the ridge tries
to edge back ne tuesday allowing slightly warmer and more humid
conditions to return (still dry). a trough scoots across the
northern us mid week, flattening out the ridge and allowing a weak
boundary to linger in the area with some low end chances for showers
and storms mainly wed night into thursday.

additional waves pass north of the area, helping to limit the ridge
from building back in (dangerous heat and humidity remains south of
the area) with possibly some chances for showers and storms with
each wave into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 124 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

as a backdoor front pushes into the area into tonight, high pressure
takes over for sunday providing drier conditions and removing rain
threats. out ahead of the backdoor front, some low cloudiness has
cropped up with mvfr/ifr cigs noted across southern lower mi. models
only bring some high mvfr cigs into fwa this afternoon, but given
forecast moisture profiles and current obs, think some low mvfr may
be possible at fwa for the first few hours before cloudiness breaks
up. it does look like winds stay excited enough overnight to
preclude any fog formation, but this may need to be watched
especially given how wet we`ve been.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...brown/roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
220
fxus63 kdtx 051734
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
134 pm edt sat sep 5 2026

.key messages...

- more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity are slated to
return today through monday.

- next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

remnant moisture along the elevated frontal zone continues to
dislodge southwest away from the airspace. this has led to erosion
of cloud cover, which will continue to be the trend through this
evening. light northeast flow is maintained through the period as
high pressure expands from ontario into the great lakes, with
diurnal cu potential today and again during peak heating sunday as
flow picks up lake moisture. decreasing dewpoints limits any
widespread fog/stratus concern sunday morning despite clearing
skies, although will have to monitor the lake moisture effect for
patchier development.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not expected through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet through 20z, then low tonight
and sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 312 am edt sat sep 5 2026

discussion...

the front lit up with convection overnight along the mi/in border
and with the help of a remnant convectively forced meso-low looks
like it will continue its upscale growth as it tracks south and west
of se mi toward morning. there`s still a chance lenawee and monroe
can get clipped by northern reaches of the convective cluster as the
low tried to track eastward just south of the border, but this
current convection will force the more potent instability axis
southwest of the area, making it harder to sustain itself into the
cwa. will keep a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of i94 through
the early morning to account for this potential, whether we get
clipped by the strong storms or more of elevated convection further
up the frontal slope utilizing the 1000 j/kg mucape. other area to
watch will be closer to the i69 corridor where there is another
convergence axis on the north edge of the shear with elevated cape
in the area as well. cams have been trying to generate some
scattered showers for the several cycles and current regional radar
shows a few showers trying to get going so will carry a low end pop
through the late morning to account for potential activity carrying
on until drier air under the sinking high pressure system can end
the showers for the rest of the weekend. severe weather is not
anticipated due to elevated nature of any storms that develop.

heights then build through the day as the amplified ridge over the
plains drifts eastward over the great lakes. at the same time, a
retrograding upper low over the east coast of canada will force a
surface high south and west over the great lakes bringing a less
humid and cooler airmass. dewpoints will hover in the upper 50s to
low 60s with highs in the upper 70s saturday though monday. next
chance of precip arrives wednesday as a strong pacific wave flattens
the longwave ridge after pushing the ridge axis across the state.
the associated surface low well to the north over ontario sends a
cold front down through the great lakes. warm advection ahead of the
front tuesday will raise max temps back into the low 80s with mid to
upper 80s on wednesday before the fropa. this front will again bring
a cooler airmass with highs dropping into the mid 70s for thursday.

marine...

high pressure anchored over ontario will increase influence through
this weekend. this will bring drier and more stable conditions.
prevailing wind from the northeast may bring a modest increase in
wave action along portions of the lake huron nearshore waters, but
these are expected to remain below advisory levels at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...drk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.