Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
175
fxus61 kcle 131124
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 am edt mon jul 13 2026

.what has changed...
temperatures and heat indices on tuesday and wednesday have
trended a bit higher with this forecast package. heat advisories
may need to be considered for parts of northwest ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1)hot conditions are expected this week. heat indices will peak
in the mid 90s to low 100s tuesday and wednesday, resulting in
major heatrisk conditions (level 3 of 4).

2) showers and thunderstorms return friday night and continue at
times through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a closed off mid-level high with anomalous 500mb heights up to
600 dam is currently centered over the upper midwest. this high
will drift southeastward as it flattens out and dissipates with
time through the week.

relative to our forecast area, this will contribute to
increasing low-level heat and humidity, though the hottest
conditions will be displaced to our northwest. temperatures will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 today, but daytime heating
resulting in the mixing of dry air aloft will yield lower dew
points and reduced heat indices (to near the actual air
temperature).

tuesday and wednesday is when the worst heat and humidity are
expected with widespread temperatures in the 90s. dew points in
the mid to upper 60s on tuesday and possibly 70 on wednesday
will contribute to heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s and
major heatrisk conditions (level 3 of 4) both days. a heat
advisory may need to be considered for toledo and adjacent areas
on tuesday, and then a broader region across portions of the
area west of i-77 for wednesday. an extreme heat watch was
considered for the toledo area tuesday but there are risks of
lower humidity (due to mixing of dry air aloft) and the 00z
href/refs only have a 10-20% chance of reaching or exceeding
105.

a cold front will swing through the area wednesday evening into
wednesday night. relative to the hot conditions on tuesday and
wednesday, temperatures will cool down to highs in the upper
80s to low 90s, though downwind of lake erie in far northeast
ohio (lake, geauga, ashtabula area) and in northwest
pennsylvania, more reasonable temperatures are expected in the
low to mid 80s, due to west to northwest flow off lake erie.
relief will mainly come in the form of much lower humidity as
dew points potentially drop to below 60 on thursday before
building back up into the low 60s.

key message 2...
the upper level high/ridge retreats back westward this weekend,
while an upper-level trough further entrenches itself over the
northeast conus. we`re caught in between these two synoptic-
scale features, with a theta-e gradient expected across the
upper midwest, great lakes region, towards the mid-atlantic.
overlap of cooler temperatures aloft from the trough towards the
northeast and surface heat and humidity from the ridge to the
west and southwest will contribute to a stormy pattern along
this gradient this weekend. locally, the latest model guidance
is pointing to friday night through saturday evening being the
most likely chance for storms; however, a weakly forced setup
like this yields low predictability. even so, wherever storms
occur, they will likely present some amount of severe weather
risk, so this weekend is worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions are prevalent across the region as only high level
clouds move through. probability is low, but a few pop up showers
are possible this afternoon at kmfd, kcak, and kyng. if over
station, this could bring visibility down to ifr. otherwise,
expected vfr conditions throughout the taf period.

winds will be light and variable across much of the region this
morning, then shift to be predominantly out of the north to
northeast at 5-10 knots over the next few hours. after 00z,
winds will shift around to be out of the south-southwest and
light at less than 5 knots.

outlook...vfr favored through thursday. non-vfr chances increase
starting late friday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected over the next several days as
high pressure builds into the region. winds will be light at around
5 knots out of the north this morning before shifting to south-
southwest by at 5-10 knots this afternoon. throughout the day
tuesday, winds will increase to around 10-15 knots out of the
southwest and persist through wednesday morning. waves will build to
1-3 feet, primarily in the central and eastern open waters during
that time. a cold front will sweep across the lake on wednesday and
winds will shift to be out of the north and though should remain
less than 10 knots. with the northerly winds, waves could build to
around 2 feet in the near shore zones behind the cold front to end
the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
461
fxus63 kiwx 131001
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
601 am edt mon jul 13 2026

.key messages...

- heat builds through the middle of the week with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s today, and the low to mid 90s tuesday
and wednesday.

- peak afternoon heat indices near or above 100 degrees on tuesday
and wednesday.

- the potential for showers and thunderstorms (20-40%) enters the
forecast late this week into this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 223 am edt mon jul 13 2026

an expansive and highly anomalous mid-upper level ridge over the
rockies and northern plains will fold east into the western
great lakes today, and the southern great lakes by tuesday and
wednesday. the surface pattern in this regime will remain
largely unchanged with high pressure in command under the
building ridge and associated subsident heat dome. the result
will be plentiful sunshine, light winds and increasingly hot and
humid conditions through wednesday.

whether afternoon and early evening heat indices peak into
advisory criteria (100-105f) tuesday into wednesday remains
uncertain given little in the way of moisture advection, and the
resulting reliance on evapotranspiration processes and more
shallow mixing depths to push sfc dewpoints up to near 70f.
with that said, latest guidance overall favors an eventual need for
a cwa-wide heat advisory tuesday afternoon into wednesday, though
opted to hold off for now per collaboration and the lingering
dewpoint spread.

the gfs remains more aggressive in breaking down the ridge and
sending a backdoor cool front into the local area by thursday and
friday with slightly cooler temps and non-zero (~10%) storm chances.
the ecmwf and gem maintain stronger ridging and dry/hot conditions,
which matches latest nbm guidance. ridge does look to fully break
down this weekend into early next week with northwest flow
potentially resulting in a frontal passage and shower/storm chances
(20-40%).

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 600 am edt mon jul 13 2026

high pressure remains in control over the next several days with
vfr conditions, little in the way of cloud cover, and light
winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
491
fxus63 kdtx 130834
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
434 am edt mon jul 13 2026

.key messages...

- heat builds during the early half of the week with highs in the
90s monday through wednesday.

- peak heat expected tuesday with highs in the upper 90s and heat
indices near or above 100 degrees. an extreme heat watch is in
effect for all of southeast michigan noon to 8pm tuesday.

- potential for showers and thunderstorms exists late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

upstream showers and convection across northern lower michigan is
traveling south into a very unfavorable environment for
sustainability of precipitation. there will be a low chance for
lingering activity across kmbs, but otherwise this will more likely
usher in mid-level clouds across southern michigan through the
morning. high pressure to support the continuation of vfr conditions
with limited cloud cover through for this afternoon and evening.
winds stay light from the southwest.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 304 am edt mon jul 13 2026

discussion...

now-term trends concern ridge rider thunderstorm complex now
tracking due southward over portions of the far eastern lake
superior basin and the eastern upper peninsula. subset of model
guidance supports atypical due south to south southwest storm motion
through the early morning with convection favoring the southern
fringes of the cape reservoir that only bleeds down into northern
lake michigan. forward corfidi vectors definitely exhibit a westerly
component with virtually no synoptic scale moisture transport or
warm advection wave over southeast michigan. forecast soundings
support strong cin throughout the lowest 13.0 kft agl. as a result,
not expecting any convective activity to survive into the forecast
area early this morning but did increase sky fraction. will monitor.

firm 600dam h5 ridge and heat dome is forecasted to fold into the
central great lakes today and persist as a pseudo low amplitude rex
block through thursday. main weather forecast concern for the next
few days will be the dangerous heat potential. heat dome is
forecasted to roll into the forecast area from the northwest today
causing greatest heat indices approaching 100 degrees over the tri
cities this afternoon. for today`s setup there is some lower
confidence regarding the surface dewpoints. look of the nbm guidance
suggests a possibility at too coarse of smoothing particularly
in/near the great lake shorelines. with no fog this morning to
potentially buoy surface dewpoints and limit mixing into the
afternoon, the decision was to consider the greatest values as
outliers. did consider a heat advisory for the urban center of
saginaw county, however, given collaboration considerations and
possibility that heat indices may only reach 100 degree for less
than 3 hours did forgo the issuance. temperatures are expected to
drop into the lower to middle 70s tonight.

centroid of midlevel ridge is forecasted to pivot directly across
southeast michigan on tuesday with warming aloft between 3.0 and 6.0
kft agl and 850mb temperatures close to 24c. with high probabilities
of wet bulb global temperatures exceeding 90 degrees and wpc heatrisk
outlining most of the area in major risk decided to go with an extreme
heat watch for all of the counties tuesday. forecast soundings show
active subsidence resulting in substantial capping inversion between
3.0 to 9.0 kft agl. current heat indices forecast may be a touch high
in a few locations as the capping inversion could limit mixing
depths. will probably go day by day with heat headlines this stretch
with heat indices forecasted to drop into the lower to middle 70s
again tuesday night.

heat dome then gets progressively compressed to the south for
wednesday and thursday. still looking at hot and humid conditions
with temperatures for many areas in the 90s and dewpoints in the
60s. additional heat headlines may be needed particularly for urban
centers. still summer warmth across the thumb even if a weak
backdoor front pushes inland off of lake huron.

broad troughing over northeast north america may work into southeast
michigan from the north for the end of the week and the upcoming
weekend. important to stress very low confidence in the timing and
duration of rain and thunderstorms as the mcs track could come into
range. the exact sensible weather forecast would come down to the
exact placement of the edge/fringe of capping and instability.

marine...

high pressure will continue to hold over most of the great lakes
region today and going into the beginning of the week. the one
caveat will be across northern portions of lake huron where there
may be some lingering shower activity hanging around. any
precipitation will quickly diminish through the early morning hours
and dry conditions will prevail though much of the week. lighter
winds in the morning will become more southwesterly going through
the day as a broad upper level ridge takes over and holds through
the middle of the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat watch from tuesday afternoon through tuesday evening
for miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...cb
marine.......ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.