Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
764
fxus61 kcle 181925
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
325 pm edt sat apr 18 2026

.what has changed...
- severe thunderstorm potential continues to decrease in our region.
however, isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line
wind gusts are possible through this early evening, especially east
of roughly i-77.
- a frost advisory has been issued for lucas and wood counties for 2
am to 10 am edt sunday.
- a freeze watch has been issued for our entire cwa for 11 pm
sunday to 11 am edt monday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) a strong cold front continues to sweep eastward through our
region through this early evening. there is limited potential for
isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of the front, especially east of
roughly i-77.

2.) unusually-cold air temperatures follow the strong cold front
through this monday night. frost and sub-32f low temperatures are a
concern. in addition, accumulating lake-effect snow is a concern
overnight sunday night into monday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
aloft, sw`erly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances affect
our region through daybreak sunday as a primary trough axis
moves from the upper midwest toward the western great lakes. at the
surface, a strong cold front extended from just west of the lake
erie islands to near arlington, oh at 2:55 pm edt this afternoon.
this front will continue moving e`ward and should exit the rest
of our cwa by 7 pm this evening. low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the surface cold front and pre-front surface
trough axes in the warm sector, tied to the shortwave
disturbances aloft, will continue to release primarily weak
mucape amidst a surface-based effective inflow layer, moderate
to strong effective bulk shear, and steep low-level lapse
rates/dcape as large as 400 to 600 j/kg, and result in
scattered multicell rain showers and isolated multicell and
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging
straight-line convective wind gusts as strong as 40 to 60 mph.
the best potential for isolated straight-line convective wind
damage exists roughly along/east of i-77, where greater daytime
heating has resulted in steeper low-level lapse rates and
greater dcape and boundary layer cape, respectively. once the
surface cold front passes, isolated to scattered rain showers
associated with moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches
of the front should exit our cwa generally from west to east
between about 6 pm this evening and 5 am tomorrow. partial to
considerable clearing is expected behind the front as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies a surface ridge that will
attempt to build from the northern and central great plains.
this clearing and low-level cold/dry air advection behind the
front will allow low temperatures to reach the mid 30`s to lower
40`s around daybreak sunday. sufficient easing of surface winds
should contribute to areas of frost formation around daybreak
in interior lucas county and far-northern wood county.

key message 2...
on sunday through sunday night, flow aloft eventually veers from
sw`erly to nw`erly as the primary trough axis aloft moves from
the western great lakes to near central ny and central pa and
shortwave troughs embedded in the flow continue to impact our
region. flow aloft then remains nw`erly through monday night as
a ridge aloft builds from the west. at the surface, net
troughing should linger over northern oh and nw pa, and a
secondary cold front should sweep sse`ward through our cwa
sunday evening. behind the front, the aforementioned surface
ridge should begin to build in earnest from the northern and
central great plains through daybreak monday. during the
remainder of monday through monday night, the surface ridge
should eventually crest e`ward in our region as the ridge aloft
continues to build from the west. this weather pattern
evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain a net low-level
caa regime and unusually-cold air temperatures in our area.
late afternoon highs should reach only the lower 40`s to lower
50`s on sunday. overnight lows should reach mainly the lower
20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak monday and prompt the
eventual upgrade of the freeze watch to a warning for our cwa.
on monday, late afternoon highs should reach only the mid 30`s
to upper 40`s as colder air continues to overspread our region
generally from the northwest, behind the secondary cold front.
overall clearing and easing of our regional surface winds monday
evening through daybreak tuesday should contribute to
significant radiational cooling and lows reaching the 20`s to
mid 30`s. additional freeze and frost alerts will likely be
needed.

periods of rain are expected sunday afternoon through evening
in response to moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of a
shortwave trough axis, low-level convergence/sufficiently-
moist ascent along the secondary cold front, and eventual
development of lake-effect precip (lep) over and generally
southeast of lake erie, behind the cold front. continued caa at
the surface and aloft and the wet-bulb effect should allow rain
to mix with or change to wet snow sunday evening, especially in
ne oh and nw pa. any snow accumulations by midnight should be a
half inch or less and confined to the higher terrain in nw pa
and far-ne oh. additional lep, mainly in the form of snow, is
expected over and generally southeast of central and eastern
lake erie monday morning as a nw`erly mean low-level flow of
unusually-cold/sufficiently-moist air persists over/downwind of
the ~8c to ~10c lake. the most-persistent snow, steady to heavy
at times, should be focused across ashtabula county, western
erie and crawford counties, pa, and vicinity due to an upstream
moisture connection to lake huron and resulting corridor of
greater lake-induced cape over lake erie. this is where
additional snow accumulations of 1-3" are possible. additional
snow accumulations elsewhere in our snow belt counties and
vicinity should be 1" or less. lep should weaken considerably
and then end by early monday afternoon, and then be followed by
dry weather region-wide through daybreak tuesday as the
aforementioned ridge is accompanied by a lowering and
stabilizing subsidence inversion. note: an overall warming trend
is expected in our cwa on tuesday through saturday due, in part
to our region becoming located within a net waa regime along
the western flank of the ridge at the surface and aloft. more
details to come in future afd`s.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
a band of showers is working eastward across all terminals this
afternoon. this will bring periods of mvfr, with some ifr
possible at kcak and kyng late this afternoon and early evening,
but not confident enough to put ifr in the tafs. some thunder
is possible on the front edge of this band. this is mostly
likely at kcak, kyng, and keri. the threat of severe
thunderstorms has significantly diminished.

the showers will exit from west to east this evening, with all
rain expected to be out of far eastern ohio and western pa
terminals by 03z at the latest. this will lead to skies becoming
vfr for tonight. vfr will continue sunday morning before
additional rain showers accompany a trough sunday afternoon.

winds will turn w to wnw behind a cold front late this afternoon
and evening averaging 15-20 knots with gusts of 20-30 knots.
wnw winds will continue overnight gradually decreasing to 5-15
knots before increasing to 15-25 knots again sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered rain and snow showers
sunday afternoon and early sunday night. non-vfr possible
tuesday night and wednesday in rain showers.

&&

.marine...
winds will increase behind a strong cold front this evening,
with wnw winds of 15-25 knots in the western basin. these winds
will persist in the western basin through about 06z before
diminishing to 10-20 knots. this lull in stronger winds will
continue through mid sunday morning before wnw winds increase
to 15-25 knots across the entire lake from late morning through
the afternoon. issued a small craft advisory from reno beach to
willowick starting at 00z this evening to capture the first
period of stronger winds, but after coordination with wfo
detroit, decided to delay the start of the small craft advisory
from maumee bay to reno beach until 14z sunday since the winds
sunday are more of a slam dunk. small craft advisories also
begin for the rest of the nearshore waters from willowick to
ripley after 14z sunday. wnw winds of 15-25 knots will continue
through the afternoon, building wave heights to 3-5 feet at
times, before winds diminish sunday evening. it will take until
early sunday night for winds to diminish in the western and
central basins, so that small craft advisory runs the longest
(through 03z monday).

light winds are expected monday and monday night as high
pressure builds across the great lakes before s winds increase
to 15-20 knots tuesday ahead of another cold front. light winds
will return wednesday through thursday as another high builds
across the great lakes.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 10 am edt sunday for ohz003-006.
freeze watch from sunday evening through monday morning for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze watch from sunday evening through monday morning for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt sunday for lez142-
147.
small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 pm edt
sunday for lez143>146.
small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt sunday for lez148-
149.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 181859
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
259 pm edt sat apr 18 2026

.key messages...

- showers have moved east of the area earlier today allowing
dry weather to prevail.

- unseasonably cool weather will bring the likelihood of frost
and freezing temperatures tonight and sunday night.

- cool sunday and monday, then much warmer tuesday through
friday with highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1201 pm edt sat apr 18 2026

strong cold air advection was behind a cold front that had
moved east out of northern indiana. upstream dew points behind
the front were in the low to mid 30s. this is a classic set up
for very chilly early morning temperatures the next two nights
with winds becoming light and with the dry and chilly are over
the forecast area. in this regard, after collaboration with
surrounding offices, have issued a frost advisory and a freeze
watch for tonight and tomorrow night respectively. lows tonight
are expected to be between 33 and 35 degrees. lows sunday night
will range from the mid to upper 20s near the michigan border to
around 30 degrees farther south.

very mild weather is ahead this upcoming week with highs in the
70s and 80s as upper level ridging builds over the eastern conus
downstream of an upper level trof over the west coast. both the
ecmwf and gfs 850 mb temperature anomalies are very impressive
in the +8c to +14c range per gfs; fully supportive of these
warm temperatures. precipitable water values surge north late
friday and should be close to 1.50" friday night. some concern
for a thunderstorm complex that may develop upstream and move
into the western part of the forecast area late this week, but
at this time uncertainty is too look to attempt to include in
the forecast at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 255 pm edt sat apr 18 2026

drier air was spreading over northern indiana accompanied by strong
cold air advection. the latest visible satellite showed skies were
clearing over northwest indiana. cold stratocu was farther north,
but these clouds are not expected to develop a ceiling over the
area. overall, drier air will arrive and help clear out the mvfr
clouds. after winds decouple tonight, daytime heating and mixing
will occur by late morning allowing wind gusts to top 20 knots
at both taf sites.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 181950
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
350 pm edt sat apr 18 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory is in effect tonight for most of southeast
michigan with lows in the 30s.

- some rain and/or snow showers possible sunday afternoon and evening
with gusts above 30 mph at times; a rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out.

- a freeze watch is in effect sunday night for most of southeast
michigan with lows in the 20s.

- temperatures warm back toward normal tuesday, climbing well above
normal through the rest of the week.

&&

.discussion...

an extensive and potent cold front, extending from 980 mb surface
low pressure stalling over southern hudson bay, has cleared east
into the southern ontario peninsula this afternoon. as expected, 2m
temperatures dropped in the wake of the boundary, from morning
readings in the 60s to afternoon readings in the 40s/50s. post-
frontal winds veered accordingly, and should persist from the west
overnight with a slow decay of the pressure gradient. the ensuing
cold advection has steepened low-level lapse rates and allowed for
efficient mixing of the still shallow boundary-layer winds. gusts of
20-30 mph should taper off overnight as a weak nocturnal inversion
emerges, while prevailing winds drop below 10 mph, late. a frost
advisory was issued for tonight until sunday morning for all
counties where the growing season has begun. temperatures drop into
the mid 30s, but could briefly drop below freezing around sunrise,
should skies fully clear out and winds trend near calm. after a week
of intermittently heavy rainfall, high soil moisture may help slow
the rate of cooling for near-surface vegetation.

the composite longwave trough axis will bisect lower michigan sunday
morning. although the jet streak and its strongest dynamics will
have departed, a cyclonic flow regime will persist overhead
throughout the day. evidence of low-level convergence passing across
lake huron and perturbed mid-level geopotential heights support
scattered shower activity during the day. moisture advection is
unremarkable, and the lake contribution to moistening should be
minor given relatively cold water temperatures. however, forecast
soundings indicate deep surface-based mixing potential with the
cloud-bearing layer residing within a portion of the dgz, generating
areas of precipitation. while temperatures will climb into the 40s
during the day, drying within the lowest 3-5 kft agl may favor
evaporation/shedding of meltwater on snowflakes upon descent.
sounding data varies greatly with the height/depth of the saturated
layer which has consequential impacts on final hydrometeor state.
should the maximized dgz and deeper/drier boundary layer solutions
win out, any snowfall would be non-accumulating, melting on contact.
additionally, potential exists for a few rumbles of thunder given
the steepness of low- and mid-level lapse rates. this also supports
blustery diurnal conditions with winds veering northwesterly and
gusting above 30 mph at times.

showers should quickly wane after sunset sunday, ahead of a very
chilly night by mid-late april standards. high confidence exists in
overnight lows dropping into the 20s as 850 temperatures plunge
below minus 10c late sunday night. issued a rare freeze watch for
all areas in which the growing season has begun given the heightened
sensitivity of early season vegetation and well-advertised cold
airmass.

height rises build in monday with longwave ridging spreading east of
the rockies and a shorter wavelength ridge axis dropping across the
upper midwest from the northern stream jet. surface high pressure
races southeastward with the northern anticyclone on monday, with
central high pressure of 1030 mb settling over lower michigan monday
afternoon. the surface high moves east monday night, leading to a
return flow setup and above normal temperatures. a cold front stalls
out just to the south tuesday night and wednesday offering a chance
for showers and/or thunderstorms near the michigan/ohio border. much
warmer to close out the week with highs in the 70s and dewpoints
back into the 50s. isolated showers/storms possible before expanding
in coverage with the next fropa friday or saturday.

&&

.marine...

cold air advection is gaining traction this afternoon which will
maintain higher mixing depths and persistence of gusty w to nw winds
to 20 to 25 kt tonight. a secondary cold front passes through on
sunday, resulting in an uptick in wind magnitude during the
afternoon and evening. small craft advisories have been issued for
western lake erie and lake st. clair with this forecast and
additional advisories are likely for the lake huron nearshore late
sunday into sunday night as wave heights build over 4 feet within
gusty nw flow to 25-30 kt. high pressure builds directly into the
great lakes on monday allowing winds and waves to subside. gusty
south wind then develops monday night into tuesday ahead of the next
cold front tracking across the upper midwest.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 101 pm edt sat apr 18 2026

aviation...

cold front is exiting the airspace at forecast time. low mvfr cloud
conditions are place within the moisture rich frontal band. there
are gradual improvements noted in upstream observations over west
michigan, but it will take several hours for this drier air near the
surface to arrive. upon doing so, ceilings will slowly lift and mix
out to a predominant vfr condition this evening. there are enough
signs in upstream cloud field west of lake michigan to still offer a
window of nearly clear skies late tonight and early sunday morning.
the incoming cold airmass will support unstable boundary layer
conditions by mid/late morning - quickly establishing a robust
cumulus field, some embedded showers, and gusty westerly winds.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 ft through this afternoon into the
evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from 2 am to 10 am edt sunday for miz053-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

freeze watch from sunday evening through monday morning for miz053-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt sunday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt sunday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......tf
aviation.....mann


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.