Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 020837
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
337 am est mon mar 2 2026

.what has changed...
confidence continues to increase in wet and warm conditions
tuesday onward.

&&

.key messages...
1) a brief period of freezing rain remains possible tuesday morning,
but potential impacts remain limited at this time.

2) warmer conditions with multiple rounds of rain are expected
tuesday through next weekend, bringing the potential for nuisance
flooding and rising water levels on area rivers and creeks.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure and dry weather exit the region tonight as a warm
front lifts north across the ohio valley. the warm front will begin
the first round of several upcoming rounds of precipitation.
precipitation will push north across the local area late monday
night into tuesday morning. a brief window of freezing rain along
the leading edge remains possible as a warm nose aloft is coupled
with surface temperatures below freezing tuesday morning. overall
impacts from freezing rain remain limited with this forecast
package. anticipate for any areas of freezing rain to changeover to
rain with daybreak tuesday. highest href probabilities (35-45%)
for accumulated freezing rain (>0.01) remain localized to
extreme northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. probabilities
decrease to 15-25% across northwest ohio. have maintained an
hwo mention with this package, though future shifts may evaluate
other messaging strategies if confidence in accumulating
freezing rain increases.

key message 2...
warm, active, and unsettled weather expected through the weekend
with several rounds of rain and a few thunderstorms impacting the
region. highs in the 50s tuesday and wednesday will surge into the
60s thursday and friday with a few spots potentially reaching the
low 70s on saturday. latest 7-day wpc qpf totals generally show
between 1.5 to 2.5 inches through sunday evening across northern
ohio and northwest pennsylvania. still not overly concerned with the
flood threat as 2-2.5 inches of rain over a period of several days
will likely be handled. this is particularly true across northwest
ohio where prolonged severe to extreme drought persists and upcoming
rain may allow for area rivers and creeks to be restored. will
continue to monitor the situation, but currently only expecting
nuisance flooding impacts if anything.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions will prevail for this taf update. scattered to
broken high level cirrus will drift through the skies through
monday. winds will be from the northeast 5-10 knots becoming
more easterly later in the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr likely in periods of rain tuesday through
friday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected through the week other
than wind shifts. high pressure over the southern great lakes
region will drift east today with weak east-northeast flow
persisting through wednesday. a stationary front that hangs
around south of the lake will finally lift north across the lake
on thursday with south winds on thursday becoming southwest on
friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...77
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 020823
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
323 am est mon mar 2 2026

.key messages...

- brief light patchy freezing rain tonight and early tuesday
mainly north of highway 30.

- becoming unseasonably mild thursday through saturday with highs in
the 60s to around 70 degrees.

- an extended very wet period will start tuesday with periods of
rain and isolated thunderstorms.

- rises on rivers are expected. some rivers may eventually reach
action or flood stage late this week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 310 am est mon mar 2 2026

a very active pattern will continue, albeit with a short break
later today. at the onset, a large area of light snow was
moving east across central il and was moving into west central
in southwest of laf. mixed precipitation was occurring as close
as cmi. surface observations on the northern fringe of this area
indicated the precipitation was all snow. bufkit gfs forecast
soundings including laf indicated the precipitation would stay
all snow early this morning with the upper cloud in the dgz and
with the entire sounding below 0c. therefore, have kept the
precipitation as just light snow, but did not include any
accumulations.

as the mild air spreads north over the cold air near the
surface, a brief period of light freezing rain is possible,
mainly north of highway 30. given early morning surface
temperatures several degrees below freezing, light icing is
possible, especially on elevated surfaces.

after the short break in the snow, a mild and very wet pattern
will follow. although record high temperatures in the 70s appear
to be just out of reach during this extended mild period,
anomalously mild highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees appear on
track with high model confidence. the temperatures friday and
friday night will be close to 25 degrees above normal.

hydrology concerns at this time center on rises on rivers late
this coming week. the latest wpc rainfall forecast for the next
7 days through sunday night indicate amounts from 1.25" to above
2.50 inches. given antecedently dry conditions and very low
river levels at the onset, any river flooding is not likely to
begin until late in the week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1205 am est mon mar 2 2026

dry conditions in the lowest 10 kft will maintain vfr through
the period. midlevel clouds associated with shortwave passing to
the south will exit around 12z but more high clouds return by
the end of the period as the next system approaches. mvfr
ceilings likely by tuesday morning but that is just outside
this forecast window.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 021046
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
546 am est mon mar 2 2026

.key messages...

- potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the
forecast.

- there is a slight chance for a couple periods of freezing rain
tuesday morning and tuesday night.

- warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on tuesday
and wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure drifts into new england today, maintaining light
southeast flow locally. a few bands of high cloud are present on
satellite at issuance, but will be the only moisture present today
and tonight to support widespread vfr conditions. winds begin to
back to the east early tuesday morning as low level moisture lifts
in from the south. there is potential for cigs to drop below 5.0 kft
agl by 12z.

for dtw...low level moisture lifts into the terminal early tuesday
morning, with potential for patchy freezing drizzle between 11z and
15z before temperatures climb above 32 degrees and transition
precipitation type to rain.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tuesday morning.

* low for patchy freezing drizzle tuesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 am est mon mar 2 2026

discussion...

strong surface ridge sliding through the area overnight has resulted
in nearly clear skies with the exception of some mid/high cloud
streaming across the mi/oh border associated with a low pressure
system passing through. combined with a thermal trough aloft with
850mb temps around -15c has resulted in another night with favorable
radiational cooling. low has dropped to the low teens into the
single digits leading to a chilly start to the new week.

as the high passes to the east, we`ll begin to turn winds to the
southeast allow some warm air advection into the region aided by
increasing heights aloft as flow pivoting to zonal allows higher
heights into the region. with another day of unimpeded march sun on
top of that, we should be able to warm back into the mid 30s across
the area.

next period of potential weather arrives tuesday morning as weak
southern stream energy begins to reach the region within the zonal
flow aloft. surface front stalled to the south of the state will try
to lift northward into our southern counties but the elevated
portions of the front will be right overhead. models have been
consistent on keeping the bulk of the rain focused south of the
state tied more on the surface boundary but acknowledging the fact
ribbons of forcing aloft could produce some rain/drizzle further
north. easterly flow into se mi keeps a feed of dry air into the
region helping evaporate any attempt for elevated portions of the
front from activating. model soundings have offered little in the
way of saturation in the bl with deep layer of dry air above it
reducing the chance of saturating from top down. this is notable as
the day will start off sub freezing with dewpoints in the upper 20s
so any precip could be freezing rain/drizzle for a few hours before
temps warm up heading toward highs in the low 40s. local probs have
been falling for the last 24 hours in terms of chances of precip
occuring and chances of freezing rain/drizzle. will still advertise
for now centered around the morning commute. bettern chances for
rain come in the afternoon as we get the lead edge of broad mid
level wave racing through the area. could lead to enough mid level
saturation to survive through the 6-7kft of dry air below it. as the
rain chances come to an end wednesday morning, temps cool again down
to around freezing which could bring freezing drizle back into the
picture for a couple hours.

weak southern stream remain active through the rest of the week with
a possible lull in activity locally wednesday before the next
stronger compact wave ejects out of the west and track across
southern mi wednesday night into thursday. additional energy looks
to target the region this weekend. could all lead to a few days in a
row of periods of rain. the nature of zonal flow wavering about from
run to run leads to low confidence at this point but chances are for
a wet end of the week. the flow will also lead to a warming trend
with 50s and 60s in the forecast from thursday through the weekend.

marine...

strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the great
lakes region today as strong high pressure moves off the east coast
late in the day. with the increase in low level stability, it
appears winds will top out just around 25 knots over lake huron. a
weak low tracking through the northern ohio valley brings mostly
rain over lake st. clair and lake erie, with dry weather and light
winds returning wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns.
another warm low producing rain looks to be arriving on thursday.
easterly winds ahead of this low over the northern half of lake
huron look to be at least moderate (potential gusts to 25 knots),
but the increasing low stability should keep winds from getting much
stronger.

little if any cold advection behind the low thursday night will
result in light winds, with enough lingering low level moisture
around to potentially support low clouds and drizzle.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...drk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.