Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
656 am est wed nov 26 2025

.synopsis...
a strong cold front will move east today as a deepening low pressure
system moves across the northern great lakes towards quebec. behind
the cold front, a surface trough will linger through friday before a
brief area of high pressure builds east on saturday. on sunday,
another low pressure moves into the region and move a cold front
east.

&&

.near term /through thursday/...
a very potent low pressure system will impact the entire area in
some aspect over the next couple days with initial impacts being
felt today as a strong cold front moves east across the area. this
system will continue to strengthen over the region, eventually
becoming a cut-off low pressure through the vertical by thursday
morning. as a result, multiple hazards will impact the area, so for
simplicity, have opted to breakdown each hazard below.

wind:

the next 24 hours are expected to be very windy across the entire
area as the center of the aforementioned low tracks through the
region. given the strength of the low, the gradient is expected to
become very tight which can be seen in model forecasts of a llj of
45-55 knots moving over the area. wsw winds sustained at 20 to 30
mph will begin this morning and continue through much of tonight.
gusts up to 50 mph are possible. these strong winds will have the
potential to damaged trees and down power lines, resulting in some
power outages. these winds may also cause a risk to high profile
vehicles and drivers should use caution.

by late tonight, most areas will have slightly calmer winds
sustained from the west at 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. the
exception will be for areas along the lakeshore extending from
lorain county east through erie county pa. across these counties
downwind of the lake, west winds will remain elevated through
thursday night with gusts up to 50 mph continuing. on top of the
impacts that typically come from strong winds, gusty winds may lead
to blowing snow on thursday which could further impact holiday
travel. a wind advisory remains in effect for the entire area.

synoptic & lake effect snow:

as the strong cold front pushes east today, showers are expected to
develop along and ahead of the boundary given strong synoptic
support and frontogenetic forcing. these showers should primarily
remain as rain until the cold air overrides the boundary and
gradually transitions everything to snow showers this afternoon.

this evening, strong southwesterly flow on the front edge of the
upper level trough will begin to result in a single band of heavy
lake effect snow to push northeast across lake erie. a small portion
of erie county pa may initially be clipped by this band, but the
bulk of snowfall and subsequent impacts will come late wednesday
into thursday morning as the trough axis shifts east of the area. as
this happens, flow will back from a sw to wnw and result in the
aforementioned heavy lake effect band moving inland. snowfall totals
across the snowbelt are expected to exceed 8 inches with the highest
totals expected across erie county pa. in erie county, 8 to 12
inches is expected across much of the area with some locations
across inland erie county possibly seeing up to 18 inches of snow.

in crawford county pa and across areas of the ohio snowbelt,
snowfall totals will range from 4 to 16 inches with the highest
totals expected across higher elevations. this includes northern
geauga county/southern lake county, northeast ashtabula county, and
northern crawford county. totals across these counties are expected
to have a wide range given the nature of lake effect, so there
remains some uncertainty in the forecast with exact placement of the
highest/lowest totals.

given these snowfall totals, the biggest change with this update is
that the lake effect snow warning has been extended to include the
ohio snowbelt and crawford county pa. the highest snowfall rates are
expected to be on thursday which may approach 1-2 inches per hour at
times. this will result in impacts to the thanksgiving travel.
motorists should avoid traveling unless absolute necessary. if you
have to venture out, be sure to have a winter preparedness kit in
the car.

temperatures:

temperatures today are expected to quickly plummet behind the
aforementioned cold front. highs for the day will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s and will be reached this morning. as the day progresses,
temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s before dropping into the
20s tonight. given the expected windy conditions, wind chill values
today will be in the 20s with overnight wind chills dropping into
the teens. these quickly changing temperatures could result in some
slick spots on roadways that are untreated. highs on thursday will
be much cooler as they only climb into the low to mid 30s, but once
again wind chill values will be in the low 20s.

&&

.short term /thursday night through saturday night/...
to keep the discussions simple, much of the previous discussion
will be applicable to thursday night and early friday as the
surface trough still lingers across the region. this will result
in continued lake effect snow across the snowbelt and windy
conditions, especially across counties near the lakeshore. on
friday, the trough gradually begins to shift east, allowing for
lake effect snow showers to gradually taper from west to east as
drier air begins to build in. much of the area should be snow
free friday night with the exception of a few lingering flurries
that may impact nwpa.

on saturday, a high pressure system will quickly push east across
the area ahead of another potent low pressure system. this low will
move northeast through the western great lakes, moving a warm front
north late saturday into saturday night. given the timing of this
boundary, much of the precipitation should be snow, however there is
a potential for a rain/snow mix and a small potential brief freezing
rain in scattered areas. confidence in this occurring is very low,
so opted to maintain snow or a rain/snow mix at this time. areas
that get snow should see less than 0.5".

highs on friday and saturday will linger in the 30s with overnight
lows falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. the coldest night
should be friday night.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
an active weather pattern is expected to continue through the long
term period. initially, a cold front associated with a low moving
northeast through the western great lakes will push east resulting
in widespread showers. the area should remain on the warm side of
the low which will keep precipitation on sunday as all rain before
transitioning to a rain/snow mix late sunday and eventually to all
snow on monday. the upper level trough associated with this low will
continue to impact the area through tuesday, proving more support
for additional snow showers to develop. the long term forecast
suggests that winter is here to stay with highs on sunday the
warmest as temperatures climb into the 40s. after sunday, highs look
to stick in the upper 20s to low 30s with overnight lows falling
into the teens to low 20s.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
the cold front is moving across the airspace this morning with
brief showers ushering in the southwest 30+ kt gusts into the
region. these showers are also posing a brief mvfr visibility
concern. have timed these across the terminals this morning.
otherwise, the great lakes region is socked in with mvfr
ceilings that will spread over the terminals and last for the
taf period. some ifr continues to impact kcak and kyng ahead of
the front, but expect ceilings to improve with the frontal
passage.

for the second half of the taf period, the lake effect snow
machine will start up across the region with trends to ifr and
perhaps even lifr by 12z for keri. some snow could end up toward
kcle with the longer 30 hour taf. for kyng, the lake effect snow
bands are going to take their time to sag south into terminal
and have introduced a vicinity shower there, but it may not be
until thursday evening until ifr impacts the terminal. for ktol,
lake effect off lake michigan should be able to reach the
terminal given the strong westerly winds and have a vicinity
shower with the potential for some mvfr snow at the terminal by
the end of the taf period.

outlook...strong winds with gusts 30-40 kts continue through
thursday night. non-vfr ceilings will continue through friday.
lake effect snow will allow for non-vfr visibility for most
terminals through friday am with the most significant impacts
expected at keri, kcle, and kyng. another system will enter the
great lakes region saturday night into sunday, bringing
potential for more non-vfr and strong winds.

&&

.marine...
an extremely hazardous marine weather period is expected through
friday for lake erie with strong gale force winds overtaking the
lake. the main cold front that will usher these winds is along
the oh/in state line this morning and will cross the lake over
the next several hours. the change will be rapid as evidenced by
the gale force conditions already being observed on some lake
michigan marine weather stations. for this forecast package,
have winds slightly higher with 45 kt sustained winds possible
this afternoon into tonight as most of the low level jet will
make it to the lake surface with the cold air advection. the low
water advisory for the western basin remains on track with water
levels expected to be at least 2 to 3 feet below low water
datum, or well below the critical mark for safe navigation,
which is set at five inches below low water datum.

the main low pressure system that is supporting the strong winds
over the lake will be well into eastern quebec on friday and
high pressure building from the west should help erode the lake
aggregate trough. gale force winds should subside on friday
morning, but there will need to be a step down to a small craft
advisory that should last until saturday morning. there will be
a very brief reprieve in marine headlines with high pressure
south of the lake on saturday. however, another strong low
pressure system will be targeting the great lakes region on
saturday night into sunday. lake erie will be on the warm side
of this system and strong offshore flow will develop. there will
likely be a need for additional marine headlines with this
system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est thursday for
ohz003-006>009-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 am est friday for
ohz010>012-089.
lake effect snow warning from 1 am thursday to 7 pm est friday
for ohz011>014-089.
winter weather advisory from 1 pm thursday to 7 pm est friday
for ohz023.
pa...wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est thursday for
paz002-003.
wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 am est friday for
paz001.
lake effect snow warning from 1 am thursday to 1 am est
saturday for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 am est friday for
lez145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...04
near term...04
short term...04
long term...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
641 am est wed nov 26 2025

.key messages...

- strong west winds today of 30 to 40 mph with isolated gusts
reaching 55 mph.

- lake effect snow heaviest north of the toll road where 3 to 6
inches are expected by early friday.

- periods of accumulating wet snow this weekend with highs in
the 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 318 am est wed nov 26 2025

a strong cold front was racing across the forecast area early
this morning. the front was nearing the indiana/ohio border at
330 am est. strong winds were occurring along and behind the
front. sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
were occurring and will continue throughout today. given these
strong winds, the wind advisory remains in effect for the entire
forecast area through today. the winds should diminish some for
thanksgiving per hrrr, but given much colder temperatures on
thanksgiving, it will feel blustery throughout the day.

lake effect snow will develop very rapidly today given lake
michigan surface water temperatures > +10c upstream of the
forecast area. heavy lake effect snow is not expected given low
inversion heights and a somewhat limited west fetch across the
lake. however, light to moderate snow bands will develop and are
expected to bring generally 3" to 6" of snow north of the toll
road by late thanksgiving day. areas of blowing snow will
accompany the snow showers with the strong wind gusts. about the
time the lake effect snow ends late friday, system snow will
spread back across the forecast area saturday. it looks like
milder air will eventually spread back over the area, so have a
rain and snow mix starting from the south early saturday night.
much more detail will eventually need to be added to the wintry
mix this weekend as the time draws near.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 641 am est wed nov 26 2025

a powerful storm system across the great lakes region will be
the primary forecast concern through this period in regards to
lake effect snow and strong winds.

initial cold front has cleared terminals early this morning with
mid level dry slot shifting across northern indiana. strong
upper level vorticity advection and eastward migration of this
dry slot will allow for lower cigs and slightly deeper rh
profiles to shift across far northern indiana later this
morning. this synoptic forcing may be accompanied by some snow
showers in the ksbn vicinity late morning/early afternoon. the
setup will transition to lake effect snow showers this afternoon
into tonight. forecast confidence regarding timing of lake
effect snow shower potential at ksbn is on the lower side given
critical westerly fetch profiles. did try and isolate a mid
afternoon/early evening period for best ksbn potential when
deeper rh profiles are in place along with lingering synoptic
forcing. the potential of lake effect snow showers will linger
through the end of the period however. cold advection will
allow for mvfr cigs today, with best chance of cigs below 2k
feet at ksbn. steep low level lapse rates and deep sfc low
pressure across the great lakes will be conducive for west-
southwest gusts to around 40+ knots through early this evening.
gusts diminish some overnight tonight, but it will remain windy
through this forecast valid period and through the day thursday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est
friday for miz078-079-177-277.
marine...storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 1 am est friday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1228 pm est wed nov 26 2025

.key messages...

- a wind advisory is in effect through 4 am thursday with sustained
westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph.

- lake effect snow showers increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon with temperatures falling below freezing this evening.
highly variable accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches expected by
thanksgiving morning.

- wind chills drop into the teens thursday morning and only increase
into the 20s by thursday afternoon.

- snow showers and gusty winds to 40 mph continue through
thanksgiving day. another dusting to 2 inches will be possible,
although the thumb region will see locally higher amounts.

- additional chances for accumulating snowfall exist saturday night
to sunday.

&&

.aviation...

disorganized light snow/rain shower activity around this afternoon.
strong southwest winds this afternoon gusting 30-40 knots will veer
around to west this evening and carry through much of the taf
period. westerly winds will allow for numerous lake effect snow
shower activity, but bands look to be transient, and should
constrict in coverage overnight. mvfr cigs through evening hours,
but just enough drying expected late tonight into tomorrow to
support just low vfr/borderline mvfr cigs, outside of any very
nature moisture plumes, which still may be able to touch off some
light snow activity. low confidence in impacts to taf sites, but did
throw in at least flurries.

for dtw...disorganized light snow/rain shower activity moves through
late this afternoon, with increasing chance of light accumulating
snow shower activity this evening. main band is not expected to
persist and should drift south overnight, limiting total
accumulation to half an inch to one inch.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and tonight, medium
tomorrow.

* medium for westerly cross wind being met this evening through
thursday.

* moderate for precipitation type as snow by late afternoon then
high this evening and beyond.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1055 am est wed nov 26 2025

update...

only minor updates to the forecast this morning. the main adjustments
were in the short term pop trends and to increase the wind gusts this
morning as some wind higher wind observations were being observed.

prev discussion...
issued at 438 am est wed nov 26 2025

discussion...

deepening low pressure, currently analyzed at 998 mb over northern
wisconsin, is in the process of sending an occluded front across
lower michigan. the passage of this front is accompanied by
widespread rain showers, with p-type affirmed by temperatures in the
upper 40s to low 50s across se michigan. these will be our high
temperatures of the day, as the front represents the lead edge of a
much colder airmass. for reference, upstream temperatures in wi/il
are in the mid-30s while the 00z abr raob sampled an 850mb
temperature of -9 c. once the initial batch of showers tracks
through, should see a relatively dry mid-day period as the dry slot
moves in aloft. main concerns for the first half of the day are
falling temperatures (10-15 degree temperature drop) and wind
potential, with observations over western lower michigan already
reporting 40 mph gusts. a wind advisory goes into effect at 10 am
for all of se michigan, with wind gusts ramping up to 45 mph by this
afternoon.

winds will gradually veer from southwest to westerly throughout the
day, setting up lake moisture flux off of a warm lake michigan
(water temperatures of 8-10 c). the moisture flux occurs in the
backdrop of strong dynamics and synoptic moisture as the vertically
stacked low pivots across northern michigan this afternoon-evening.
this generates a robust lake effect response off of lake michigan
for the latter half of the day, with the cyclonic flow around the
low eventually adding in aggregate effects from lake superior. the
lake effect plume arrives to the edge of the cwa early this
afternoon, with initial p-type favoring rain or a rain-snow mix. as
the vort max gets closer however, the deeper synoptic moisture taps
into the dendritic growth zone to aid in ice production and allow an
increasing proportion of wet snowflakes to mix in. by mid-afternoon,
air temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-30s with wet bulb
temperatures right around the freezing mark. this generally prevents
snow accumulations during the daylight hours, although a higher
intensity snow shower could accumulate on elevated/grassy surfaces
especially in higher terrain areas (i.e. irish hills).

the lake effect plume kicks into full gear this evening, as
temperatures fall within a degree or two of freezing around sunset
and below freezing by midnight. the broad footprint of the wave
suggests widespread coverage of snow showers this evening-overnight,
with any higher intensity bands likely shifting south with time as
winds veer. gusty winds to 45 mph persist through the overnight as
well, with limited decoupling potential due to the deep cold
advective response. a turbulent cloud layer is likely to disrupt
snow growth processes and shatter any larger snowflakes to keep
ratios in check. this combination of strong winds and variable snow
shower intensity also raises concern for snow squalls this evening
in addition to variable driving conditions for any holiday travel.
most areas will see snow accumulations anywhere from a dusting to 2
inches by thanksgiving morning, some of which may fall in a short
duration.

by early thanksgiving morning, should begin to see a shift in the
character of the lake effect with the loss of the deeper synoptic
support and a transition toward more prominent banding. a couple of
dominant bands appear likely: one that extends from near traverse
bay into the thumb and one toward the i-94 corridor/south,
reflecting the veered northwest profiles. in these areas, similar
impact concerns exist as this evening with wind gusts remaining
elevated in the 35-40 mph range. resultant wind chills will be in
the teens as overnight lows drop into the upper 20s. will need to
keep an eye on accumulations across the thumb region thanksgiving
day, as some models are pushing 4 inches by the afternoon.
elsewhere, another dusting to 2 inches will be possible thanksgiving
day although accumulations will be more localized than this evening.

cyclonic influence wanes through the morning hours friday, shutting
off the already diminishing lake effect response. heights rise both
friday-saturday before the next low pressure system arrives saturday
night-sunday. forecast models are still projecting the surface low
to track right through lower michigan, with much of the variance
coming from the magnitude of the warm sector. for now, will continue
to advertise potential for accumulating snow with this system
although there is likely to be a rain-snow mix component for much of
the area. otherwise, cold temperatures continue through early next
week with daytime highs holding in the upper 20s.

marine...

strong low pressure brings deteriorating marine conditions across
the central great lakes today. the center of the system will track
through the straits near peak strength this evening before
continuing into ontario/quebec and pulling an arctic air mass into
the region through the late week. a sharp cold front will sweep
across the region this morning with a long duration of gales
expected through thursday and into early friday for some areas. gale
warnings are in effect for all marine zones through the period, and
low water advisories are in effect for western lake erie and inner
saginaw bay during the peak of the event today into tonight.

for saginaw bay and central/southern lake huron, gales will peak
this afternoon through early thursday, topping out between 40 and 45
kt. the gales will be from the sw behind the morning cold front,
then gradually veer to w early thursday and nw thursday evening.
there is high confidence for gales during this period and low
probability for gusts to storm force.

for lake st. clair and western lake erie, sw gales are expected in
the wake of the front by late morning, reaching a peak near 40 to 45
kt through the evening and overnight. wind direction gradually veers
to w on thursday while gales slowly subside.

for northern lake huron, gales will be relatively slower to start
today as a weaker gradient exists with the center of the low passing
in the vicinity. however, wind will quickly ramp up this evening as
the low departs and nw gales of 35 to 40 kt are expected there
through the day thursday.

rain showers will change over to snow showers this evening and snow
squalls are likely through thursday into thursday night. gales
gradually subside on friday but wind remains gusty out of the
northwest with additional snow showers. winds weaken further on
saturday as narrow high pressure works in ahead of the next system
set to track through on sunday. this system will bring widespread
precipitation and likely gusty winds to much of the area.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory until 4 am est thursday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 7 am est friday for lhz361-362.

gale warning until 10 am est friday for lhz363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

low water advisory until midnight est tonight for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sf
update.......aa
discussion...mv
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.