Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
643
fxus61 kcle 091750
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
150 pm edt fri oct 9 2026

.what has changed...
rainfall amounts have increased slightly saturday night into sunday
associated with the remnants of isaias.

&&

.key messages...
1) 1) periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and breezy conditions are
expected saturday night through sunday associated with the remnants
of isaias.

2) a cold front will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms
on tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the remnants of hurricane isaias will move north into the ohio
valley saturday night through sunday, resulting in periods of
moderate to heavy rain across the region, especially late
saturday night into sunday morning. additional periods of
moderate to heavy rain are possible sunday morning and
afternoon, mainly along and east of the i-71 corridor as the
remnants of isaias gradually move east towards the mid-atlantic
coast. rainfall amounts have increased slightly in this forecast
package, especially along and east of the i-71 corridor where
totals may range between 1 to 2 inches. the latest refs
guidance, albeit somewhat aggressive, also indicates a low
probability (20 to 30%) for a narrow swath of 3 inches of rain,
though this is likely the "worst case" scenario. the overall
threat for flooding is still considered to be low due to recent
dry conditions and low stream/river levels.

in addition to the widespread rain, a potent southeast low-level jet
will bring breezy conditions into the region, with wind gusts
primarily in the 25 to 35 mph range, though can`t rule out isolated
higher gusts up to 40 mph, especially in the favored downsloping
areas.

key message 2...
the next chance for precipitation will be on tuesday as a cold
front moves southeast through the great lakes. a narrow corridor
of weak instability may form ahead of the front as surface dew
points increase into the low 60s which could support a few
thunderstorms. can`t rule out a few stronger storms given the
ample mid-level shear in place, approaching 40 to 50 knots at
times tuesday afternoon.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions continue through the taf period. some mid-level
clouds will move across the airspace through early this evening.
a dry airmass and a light breeze is expected to largely preclude
any fog development overnight tonight. in general, light west-
southwest winds this afternoon will shift south-southeast
overnight tonight into saturday, with these winds increasing to
7-12kt later saturday morning into the afternoon. at cle, a weak
lake breeze is expected to shift winds to a northerly direction
around 20z this afternoon, before shifting southeast later this
evening. winds at cle will then be close to a cross wind at
130-150 degrees through the remainder of the taf period. most
guidance suggests winds should not cross back over 150 degrees
through the day saturday, though it will be close at times.

outlook...moderate to heavy rain will bring a period of non-vfr
overnight saturday night into sunday, potentially lingering into
sunday night in northeast oh/northwest pa. non-vfr possible due
to showers and thunderstorms with a cold front around tuesday.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet marine conditions are expected through saturday with
offshore flow of 10 to 15 knots. southeast flow will increase into
the 15 to 20 knot range on sunday as the remnants of isaias
move north into the ohio valley, though not anticipating any
marine headlines at this time. winds will shift towards the
northwest on monday, 10 to 15 knots, as isaias moves east of the
mid- atlantic coast. winds will again increase out of the
southwest ahead of a cold front on tuesday, 15 to 20 knots,
shifting towards the northwest behind the front late tuesday
into wednesday, 15 to 20 knots. a small craft advisory will
likely be needed behind the front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...sullivan
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
552
fxus63 kiwx 091727
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
127 pm edt fri oct 9 2026

.key messages...

- a few light sprinkles or showers (10-20%) possible in northwest in
and southwest mi this afternoon into this evening.

- periods of light rain expected saturday night into sunday
morning, especially east of interstate 69 where up to a half
an inch of rain may fall.

- an active pattern sets up for the second half of next week
with gusty winds, showers and possible thunderstorms, then
turning colder into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 127 pm edt fri oct 9 2026

a weak shortwave and brief shot of elevated waa may bring a few
sprinkles or light high based showers to nw in and srn mi this
afternoon into this evening. upper level ridging then briefly builds
into the lower great lakes later tonight into saturday in between
systems. high level clouds will overspread the area on saturday as
the remnants of hurricane isaias lift north into the western tn
valley. southerly winds will make for a warmer day otherwise on
saturday with highs mid 70s to near 80f.

the remnants of the tropical system then take a more northeasterly
jog through the lower ohio river valley saturday night into sunday.
spoke of energy and associated deeper moisture on its northern
fringe should bring at least light rain in the vicinity of an
inverted trough, mainly late saturday evening into sunday morning.
the nbm and gefs/ecmwf ensembles have 50-80% probs for rainfall
totals up to near a half inch in northwest oh, especially in the
lima area. qpf and pops do drop off along and west of the interstate
69 corridor with a sharp cut-off to the rain possible in nw in and
sw mi. no hazardous wx anticipated regardless with lingering clouds
likely keeping sunday`s highs cooler (mid 60s to low 70s).

another round of height rises and warmer low level southwest flow
will make monday the warmest day of the 7 day forecast with highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. a weak cool front likely drops
through later monday night into tuesday morning with slightly
cooler temps and a low chance (20-40%) for a few showers. the
pattern does look to become increasingly active for the second
half of the week with gusty winds and periodic rain/thunder
chances. the phasing of incoming northern and southern stream
systems to carve out a deep trough and potential strong sfc
reflection over the northern great lakes and ontario. this
likely drives a strong fall cold front through with
cool/blustery air filtering in sometime friday into saturday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1259 pm edt fri oct 9 2026

vfr conditions are expected through the taf forecast period
with southeast winds between 5-10 kts. clouds are advecting in
from the west as a warm frontal feature lifts north through the
midwest. isolated showers will be possible in northwest indiana
through sunset, mainly along the i-80/i-90 corridor. mid to high
level clouds persist with ceilings generally around 10 kft.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
713
fxus63 kdtx 091934
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
334 pm edt fri oct 9 2026

.key messages...

- a few light showers possible late tonight into early saturday
morning.

- much warmer saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s.

- next significant chance of rain arrives sunday, focused over the
southeasternmost areas, tied to the remnants of isaias.

&&

.discussion...

mid clouds have been expanding across the area today as a mid level
wave rides east along a warm front across in/oh later this
afternoon. the wave was boosted this afternoon by a low level jet
lifting north into the area which will continue northward while the
wave pulls away to the east. over the last few days, models have
continually highlighted the potential for weak showers to accompany
the warm front as it lifts through southern mi after 00z tonight.
though there will be separation between two of the main features,
there is still a tight theta e gradient that will lift through the
area tonight on the front that could touch off some showers. pwats
have been increasing over the last few runs as well with a narrow
window of close to 1 inch lifting through. a slight chance of
showers was added in the last forecast cycle which will be only
slightly adjusted this go around, mainly broadening it due to
discrepancies in timing of the likely narrow band of showers. even
within 12 hours the cams differ by 3-4 hours with timing of the
feature. any precip will lift north likely exiting the forecast area
by 12z saturday.

warmer temps still likely on saturday as southerly flow ramps up
behind the warm front positioned over northern mi. thermal ridge
folding into the area has settled around 17c at 850mb by the time it
gets here with the warmest part of the airmass lifting north and
west of the area through mn. thus chances of hitting 80f for highs
have gone down in favor of mid to upper 70s.

extensive dry spell looks to come to an end sunday as the remnants
of hurricane isaias lifts northward toward the ohio valley. recent
trends keep the low center more to the south over ky before whisking
it off to the east but the expansive precip shield will still work
up through most or all of se mi saturday night into sunday. pwats
continue to climb with the system and we`re now up to around 1.5
inches across most of the area but the western part of lower mi will
be fighting drier air and ridging building into the area so will
probably see a good cutoff of rain across western lower. currently
qpf totals are around a quarter to half inch across the area.

periodic rain chances continue through the end of the upcoming week
as a deep upper level trough sets up over the western conus ejecting
several waves which look to phase with northern stream troughs
working across southern canada. first chances look to be with a cold
front monday night into tuesday with another front friday.

&&

.marine...

high pressure located across the eastern great lakes will travel
into new england tomorrow while remnants from hurricane isaias works
from the gulf states into the ohio valley. this will work to produce
a moderate strength pressure gradient over the great lakes and will
bring breezy southeast flow through tomorrow. gusts ranging between
25 to 30 knots will be possible through south and central lake
huron, sporadically peaking around 34 knots over north-central lake
huron where the fetch is more favorable. however, confidence in
achieving gust to gales will be very low given the high stability
over the lakes which will greatly hamper or nullify any mixing of
stronger winds aloft. breezy conditions will subside through sunday
as a ridge of high pressure briefly fills in. remnant moisture from
the tropical system will also bring the chance for rain showers
sunday. otherwise, on and off rain showers and some low-end storm
chances will be possible through next week as a couple of systems
moves through.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1245 pm edt fri oct 9 2026

aviation...

high pressure centered over the region will maintain dry and stable
conditions throughout the lower levels this afternoon into tonight.
this ensures continued vfr conditions as thicker mid and high level
cloud cover funnels through. a few spotty inconsequential light
showers plausible overnight. late day prevailing wind from the
southwest, shifting to southeasterly overnight as the high slowly
exits the region.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......am
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.