Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
339 am edt wed apr 29 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes made to the forecast with this morning update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dreary wednesday in store for the area as widespread rain showers
move northeast across the area. no thunder expected, but localized
heavy rainfall across southeastern counties possible.

2) below average temperatures arrive today and stick around through
the weekend. low confidence lake enhanced rain showers possible and
the potential for frost/freeze returns.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
tonight, a cold front has pushed east of the area, stalling just
west of the appalachians. this boundary is providing a path for a
low developing over the tennessee valley which is expected to track
northeast towards new england today. given the placement of this
low, the entire cwa is expected to remain on the cold side of the
low, ultimately limiting any instability potential today for
thunderstorms to occur. cannot rule out a few rumbles across the
southeastern tier of counties, but confidence is too low to include
in the forecast at this point. however, a potent shortwave pushing
east will enhance synoptic support for widespread rain showers to
occur across the cwa beginning this morning and lingering for much
of today. the axis of highest rainfall totals will be across the
southeastern tier of counties where up to 1" of rainfall is
possible. not expecting any flooding concerns at this point, but
will monitor conditions as the day progresses. these showers should
taper from west to east this evening into the early overnight hours
as the aforementioned low and upper level support drift east.

key message 2...
on thursday and friday, a surface trough will linger over the area,
allowing for a much cooler canadian airmass to begin to usher in
across the area. this will ultimately lead to much cooler, below
average temperatures through friday with highs in the low to mid 50s
and overnight lows dropping into the 30s. as this colder airmass
pushes south over warming lakes, there is a potential for enough
lake induced instability to develop to result in isolated light rain
showers across the area. confidence remains low at this point,
especially in the location of any of these showers. unfortunately,
with this set-up, much of thursday and friday will be at least
partly cloudy, lending to some cold and dreary days. on saturday, a
high pressure system will begin to build southeast across the area
allowing for any shower potential to diminish and some clearing in
sky coverage. temperatures however will remain below normal on
saturday, slightly warming on sunday into the upper 50s to low 60s.
sunday will mark the transition towards gradual warming once again
towards normal. with the overnight lows expected to dip into the low
to mid 30s, will have to continue to monitor for the potential of
frost/freeze, especially on thursday, friday, and saturday nights.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr on the font end of the taf, but low pressure moving
northeastward brings widespread showers/rain to the region after
approximately 10z this morning. expect ceilings to lower to
mvfr/ifr, depending on terminal, in precipitation that will
last 4 to 8 hours for the most part. winds to increase slightly
this afternoon as low pressure strengthens as it nears the
region, with gusts to 20kts possible this afternoon. ceilings
that were ifr should lift to mvfr late in the taf period as
precipitation exits to the northeast.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers friday morning.

&&

.marine...
will be in a continued/prolonged offshore flow regime
for lake erie through the weekend. northwesterly winds today 10-
20kts bring wave heights 2-4ft today and tonight, easing to 10-15kts
thursday through early saturday and wave heights 1-3ft. saturday,
winds become westerly 10-15kts and wave heights 1-2ft in the western
and central basins and 1-3ft in the eastern basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
214 am edt wed apr 29 2026

.key messages...

- scattered rain showers today, best chances (50-70%) this morning
south of us 24.

- a cooler and generally drier weather pattern will settle in
thursday through early next week.

- frost may impact sensitive vegetation friday night into early
saturday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 214 am edt wed apr 29 2026

an upper level shortwave and flares of elevated frontogenesis tracks
through this morning with cloud cover and chances for showers,
mainly along and south of the us 24 corridor where more pronounced
low level moisture convergence is anticipated. a few diurnal showers
then potentially refire under the upper trough axis this afternoon
along any lingering lake boundaries or subtle inverted troughs.
overall coverage should be limited given poor moisture quality,
though a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out if partial clearing
is realized.

cool, cyclonic, mid to upper level flow then remains locked in
thursday through early next week on the southwest fringe of a
southeast canada centered negative height anomaly. below normal
temps and mainly dry conditions will result, though subtle
flattening to the height field likely supports a warming trend and
better rain chances (30-40%) into next week. coldest of the air in
this regime still looks to be thursday through saturday, with friday
night likely the best opportunity for a solid early may
frost/freeze.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1217 am edt wed apr 29 2026

a moisture starved upper level wave and subtle elevated fgen
response will bring a few showers and chances for brief vis/cig
reductions to mainly kfwa later tonight. high mvfr to low vfr
cigs likely settle in for most of the day on wednesday otherwise
with a few diurnally driven showers not of the question during
the pm hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
405 am edt wed apr 29 2026

.key messages...

- scattered light rain showers this morning.

- temperatures roughly 10 degrees below average the rest of the
week, bringing potential for frost/freeze conditions each
morning thru sunday.

&&

.discussion...

a mid-level trough passing through the midwest merges with a
convectively enhanced shortwave over the ohio valley this morning.
the result will be a deepening sfc low that develops along the
stalled baroclinic zone to our south and tracks into the mid-
atlantic region. the deeper moisture transport with this system will
be shunted to the south and east, but will see pockets of light
showers track through this morning as transient fgen excites the 600-
700mb front overhead. highest confidence in measuring around 0.10"
will be south of metro detroit where the most organized forcing and
deepest moisture is progged to set up.

low-level dry air is shown to spread back in from the north as the
elevated forcing peels away midday, favoring mainly dry conditions
east of us-23 the rest of the afternoon. as pva associated with the
midwest trough tracks in late afternoon and this evening, additional
spotty showers expand in coverage over interior lower mi and persist
into parts of tonight. this wave passing through also produces a
healthy coverage of lower cloud overnight, which with a weak
gradient wind is forecast to prevent wider development of frost.
some patchy frost still possible as 2m temps settle into the mid 30s
outside of urban areas.

the trough stalls over the northern great lakes tonight, evolving
into a closed low that meanders over the region the rest of the
week. cool northwest flow dominates local conditions with temps
falling roughly 10 degrees below average for late april and early
may. mostly benign conditions during this period, but expect a daily
flare-up of showers as the cold pool aloft induces steep lapse rates
within the broad moist cyclonic flow. daily highs within a few
degrees of 50 favor rain showers but wet snowflakes possible at
times as wet bulb zero heights fall below 2kft.

the upcoming cool period is uncommon but not completely unheard of
for early may, with historical data showing temps falling below
freezing during the first week of may roughly once every 3 to 7
years on average. however, with the warm spring so far - ranked in
the top-10 warmest up to this point for most sites in se mi - this
cold comes with potential impacts to sensitive vegetation. friday,
saturday, and sunday morning remain targets for potential
frost/freeze headlines, particularly saturday morning. if the
current forecast for lows in the upper 20s saturday morning
verifies, some low min records will be within reach.

the thermal trough is nudged out early next week which favors a
slight warm-up, but longwave troughing remains the dominant pattern
over the eastern conus well into next week. this offers several
opportunities for widespread precip events, and temps generally near
or below normal. cpc 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and week 3-4 outlooks
maintain a lean toward chilly conditions well into the month of may.

&&

.marine...

a more diffuse surface pressure field emerges today as the central
great lakes becomes positioned between several weak surface high
pressure areas to the west. mid-level troughing persists overhead,
lifting a weak surface low through the ohio valley. this lends
potential for periods of light showers, but a lack of instability
precludes thunderstorm concerns. local winds generally hold from the
northwest through the rest of the workweek with some additional
chances for weakly forced light precipitation. stronger high pressure
then attempts to build in from central canada/conus over the
weekend. low predictability exists in the large-scale pattern
evolution this weekend as stalled low pressure over the northeast
retrogrades toward the great lakes. no marine headlines are expected
through saturday given current wind and wave trends.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1158 pm edt tue apr 28 2026

aviation...

late evening observations indicate vfr under increasing mid and high
clouds over lower mi as a weak surface pressure trough finishes
releasing off lake huron with a northerly wind shift. upstream
observations across the mid ms valley then indicate trends are on
schedule for the late night and morning. low pressure sliding along
the stalled ohio valley front is the surface reflection of a mid
level wave that grazes lower mi with pockets of light rain showers
after sunrise. the frontal zone is shallow and slopes back into
southern lower mi around the 700 mb level which becomes increasingly
activated by vfr clouds and clusters of rain showers as the mid level
wave moves in from the mo valley. prospects for mvfr ceiling are
greater early in the morning while shower coverage struggles to
maintain coverage and intensity, and as the low level wind turns ne
ahead of the ohio valley surface low. eastward passage of the low
leaves widely scattered showers in the afternoon mainly west of the
terminal corridor while lower range vfr ceiling holds into wednesday
evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight. moderate in the
morning. high wednesday afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.