Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
926
fxus61 kcle 211441
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1041 am edt tue jul 21 2026

.what has changed...
10:40 am update... an initial round of rain and storms moved
across the area earlier than expected this morning. confidence
in severe potential around midday and early this afternoon has
wavered, but another round of showers and storms is moving east
across the area and will be monitored for any intensification.
severe potential remains this evening as the cold front itself
crosses the area, but confidence remains lower until we see how
unstable the atmosphere is able to become after earlier storms.

&&

.key messages...
1) rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this evening. some thunderstorms may turn severe with damaging
winds the primary risk, especially east of i-71. overall
confidence in severe potential is on the lower side due to the
multiple rounds of storms slowing daytime heating.

2) anomalously-cool air mass arrives on wednesday with lake-
enhanced showers possible.

3) temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an initial slug of rain and storms (including a severe storm in
erie, pa) developed a bit earlier than expected and moved across
the area largely before 10 am this morning, adding some extra
uncertainty to the evolution over the next few hours.

as of 10:30 am, additional convection is developing from central
lake erie back into parts of northwest and west central oh in
the lingering warm advection regime. while heating will be more
limited due to the first round of convection this morning, slow
destabilization is expected through early this afternoon as
these additional storms move across the area. strong shear (bulk
shear of 40-50kt+ and effective storm relative helicity of
200-300 m2/s2) will be in place through early this afternoon, so
if we are able to see sufficient destabilization the potential
for organized/rotating convection remains across eastern oh and
into western pa from around midday and into the early afternoon.
while heating will be limited which adds uncertainty, we will
need to monitor for a damaging wind and perhaps tornado
potential from around the i-77 corridor points east if we can
see any supercells or bowing line segments evolve in the
strongly sheared environment before 2 or 3 pm.

we should then see a brief break in convection during the mid to
late afternoon hours before the cold front approaches and
crosses this evening, mainly between 5-10 pm. shear remains
strong enough for organized convection and a mixed mode of cells
and small/potentially bowing line segments this evening, but
confidence in the airmass recovering behind earlier convection
is on the lower side. this may result in a risk for damaging
winds and a localized tornado risk, evident by the the 5%
tornado probabilities in the latest spc swody1 outlook. these
storms appear to be driven by mesoscale processes mainly below
700 mb, evident by an abundance of dry air aloft, and thus,
anticipating this second round of convection to be fairly
shallow, similar to the type of storms seen across wisconsin
yesterday (7/20). confidence on this second round remains on the
lower side, especially with regards to intensity and coverage.

key message 2...
a strong cold front will move across the area tonight, ushering
in a chilly air mass into the region, characterized by 850 mb
temperatures falling as low as 6c on wednesday. lake-enhanced
rain showers will be possible throughout wednesday across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania in
addition to ample cloud cover, especially wednesday morning and
early afternoon. as a result, high temperatures may struggle to
get out of the 60s in some spots.

key message 3...
a large upper-level ridge across the western and central conus
will gradually expand further east into the great lakes by
friday into the weekend, resulting in temperatures to return
near or slightly above normal in the 80s. however, a series of
upper-level troughs across hudson bay appear poised to block the
eastward progression of the ridge. this pattern would appear to
favor increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the area
by early next week if trends continue.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
first round of showers and thunderstorms is moving east into
the western part of the area early this morning. this round of
storms will continue to move east across the area this morning
with additional redevelopment likely on the western edge of
storms as better forcing moves into the region. amendments will
likely be needed as confidence in convection coverage into this
afternoon increases. regardless, any storms will be capable of
producing non-vfr conditions and erratic wind gusts to at least
35 knots. locally higher thunderstorm gusts to 50 knots are
possible primarily at southeastern terminals late this morning
into this afternoon. another round of showers/storms is possible
ahead of a cold front this evening, but would like to see how
the atmosphere recovers this afternoon before getting too
aggressive with shower/thunderstorms. lake effect showers/clouds
will likely develop behind the cold front tonight which could
produce mvfr ceilings and perhaps some light showers at
keri/kyng/kcle in the later part of the taf period.

southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to
20 to 25 knots this morning. as mentioned above, wind gusts will
likely be stronger in thunderstorms. winds will shift to the
northwest and diminish to about 10 knots with periodic gusts to
20 knots behind a cold front tonight.

outlook...residual non-vfr possible on wednesday in lake effect
rain showers and clouds across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this morning,
resulting in waves of 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore zones from
roughly vermilion to ripley ny. winds may briefly diminish as a
cold front crosses the area this afternoon/evening, but strong
cold air advection will cause winds to shift to the northwest
and increase to about 20 knots overnight, which will produce
continued elevated waves into wednesday. the small craft advisory
from maumee bay to the islands has been adjusted to start early
this morning and end at 4 am wednesday morning to account for
the enhanced northwest flow behind the cold front. meanwhile,
the small craft advisory remains in effect from the islands to
ripley ny from 8 am this morning until 10 pm wednesday evening.
thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon which will
result in higher winds/waves.

winds will diminish below 10 knots by early thursday morning and
expect light (10 knots or less) and variable flow through at
least the first half of the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for
ohz010>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt wednesday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn/sullivan
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
986
fxus63 kiwx 211104
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
704 am edt tue jul 21 2026

.key messages...

- there is a general 30-50% chance of showers with a few
thunderstorms today especially south of us-30 and east of i-69.
confidence in severe weather occurring is low, but cannot
completely rule out instances of isolated damaging wind gusts
or heavy rain.

- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake
michigan beaches on tuesday through thursday morning. stay
dry when waves are high.

- dry, cooler and less humid conditions arrive later today and
persist into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue jul 21 2026

convection did not survive into our area last night and the main
energy slipped south from eastern ia into south-central il. as
of current radar imagery our area remains precipitation free.
there is an area of scattered showers moving eastward across
northern il which may slip in here along the cold front later
this morning but any strong convection looks fairly unlikely
across our area today due to the poor diurnal timing of the
boundary passage. still think an isolated strong to severe
storm or two may still be possible for our far southeastern
parts of the cwa (i.e. lima, oh area) but again with the poor
timing the surface instability will be low to non-existent when
the boundary pushes through those areas. effective bulk shear
values along the boundary will run from 40-50 kts which if
convection can initiate some organization could be achieved.
spc does have a small portion of our cwa under a slight risk for
severe storms and a bit larger area of marginal today. the
biggest threat from these storms would be damaging gusts and
heavy downpours. hazardous marine conditions for the near shore
and lake michigan beaches today through thursday morning with
the more gusty northerly flow.

also in the wake of the cold front we actually may see some
lake effect clouds and showers develop off of southern lake
michigan late tonight and into wednesday with the cooler air
aloft and warmer lake temperatures in place. lows on wednesday
morning will be in the 50s while parts of lake michigan surface
water temperatures are currently in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
not expecting much of accumulation from any of the showers but
will be enough to keep areas near the lake damp on wednesday.
high temperatures on wednesday through friday will mainly be in
the 70s with a northwesterly flow aloft in place. this may also
keep some smoke in the air with that trajectory. slightly warmer
this weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s as ridging over
the central conus starts to push a bit eastward into the region.
dry conditions also otherwise for the area at least through
saturday night. a weak shortwave could allow for some
showers/storms by sunday afternoon but moisture may be hard to
come by with the ridging pushing eastward and blocking any
southern moisture. will keep our eyes on that.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 646 am edt tue jul 21 2026

showers and thunderstorms did develop earlier this morning and
push into the area out ahead of the cold front. still anticipate
that we could see another batch of showers and storms mainly for
kfwa later this morning until 14z tue. confidence is lower on
strong to severe storms as this first batch of convection may
have worked the environment over quite a bit and will make for
less instability available. gusty southwesterly winds will
become more northerly in wake of cold front later today with
gusts around 20 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from this evening through thursday
morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late wednesday night for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
673
fxus63 kdtx 211446
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1046 am edt tue jul 21 2026

.key messages...

- there is an isolated risk for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
this morning and again early this afternoon with the arrival of a
cold front.

- mostly dry conditions with temperatures dipping below average
during the mid to late week period.

- next chance at precipitation saturday night into sunday.

&&

.update...

12z dtx raob showed a modest erosion of the 850-700mb warm layer,
relative to last evening`s 00z raob, in addition to respectable
instability (1300 j/kg sbcape | 1700 j/kg mlcape). a secondary pv
feature tied to the surface cold front over wi/northern lake mi is
set to sweep into se mi by early afternoon (~17-19z) offering the
next window for potential convection today. while the elevated warm
layer is weaker, it still partially remains in place with cam
guidance varied on the degree of further erosion late this morning.
as such, coverage today carries a fair degree of uncertainty even
now. highest confidence for scattered showers/storms this afternoon
is over the thumb where the core of the pv anomaly tracks overhead
as well as being the region where soundings advertise the weakest
warm layer (also seen by the agitated cu field across central mi).
for the remaining southern half of the area, chance pops (~40%)
still appear reasonable given the higher uncertainty. for severe
chances, spc has not changed their day 1 outlook, with the
easternmost sliver of se mi being under a marginal risk. that said,
while cams advertise decreasing shear over the course of the day
can`t rule out an isolated stronger cell in the thumb as well given
mlcape is already nearing the 2000 ballpark. damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat in any stronger storm with hail a more
limited hazard due to subpar mid-level lapse rates ranging 6-
6.5c/km.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 559 am edt tue jul 21 2026

aviation...

active day across the region as a low pressure system tracking east
across the northern great lakes pulls a cold front through the
region. early in the forecast there is a wave tracking across the
ohio border which will bring thunder chances to the detroit area taf
sites. then we turn our focus to the cold front over wi that will
sweep through the region later today brining another round of
possible storms. expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to
work southward from mbs to dtw from about 15z to 19z, and activity
will linger through the diurnal cycle. isolated strong to severe
storms will be possible. the front will then veer winds from sw to
nw bringing stronger gusts to around 25 knots. winds look to hold
through the overnight, though not as gusty.

d21/dtw convection...a wave tracking along the ohio border will
bring the risk of convection across the metro airspace. after a
brief lull through the late morning, there may be another round of
convection in the early afternoon. included another prob30 group for
this activity which looks scattered.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms this morning and afternoon.

* low for westerly crosswinds this afternoon.

prev discussion...
issued at 335 am edt tue jul 21 2026

discussion...

a cluster of thunderstorms will continue to sweep across
north/central lower michigan along the lead edge of an instability
gradient and warm front early this morning. there is a respectable
warm layer aloft over southeast michigan per 00z dtx raob last
evening with mesoanalysis showing very limited surface instability.
this should help limit overall convective potential as the cluster of
thunderstorms move through. mid-level lapse rates with 20-30 knots
of effective bulk shear will still allow for any stronger updrafts to
pose an isolated damaging wind threat as this lead wave works
through the saginaw valley and thumb. the arrival of deeper moisture
will also support brief heavy downpours.

evening suite of hi-res models are struggling to capture the lack of
convection with southern extent as several have much higher coverage
that reaches southern areas of southeast michigan. thus, the
isolated severe threat looks confined along and north of i-69
through the remainder of the early morning hours. there is a
secondary weak wave that may move out of northern il that may lead to
an expansion of showers across southern portions of the cwa towards
12z, but confidence is low with how this plays out. focus then turns
to the trailing shortwave moving out of minnesota and through
wisconsin throughout the morning. this wave and associated cold front
should lead to better erosion of this mid level warm layer and
provide an opportunity for an uptick in convection behind morning
convection as it arrives towards the early afternoon. increasing
instability profiles with more favorable diurnal timing and better
cape depth with bulk shear of 20+ knots allows for a chance at
isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm development. activity
will pose mainly a damaging wind threat with a chance for small hail
as well. favored areas will include areas east of the i-75 corridor,
mainly during the early to mid afternoon period. aside from
thunderstorm potential, expect westerly winds to increase throughout
the morning with breezy northwest winds behind the front later today
as cold and dry air advection commences.

temperatures fall to well below average for july standards as 850 mb
temperatures dip into the single digits c bringing daytime highs for
wednesday in the low to mid 70s. comfortable humidity also expected
with dewpoints to to around 50 degrees. these dry and cool
conditions will carry over into thursday. high pressure continues to
limit convective potential into friday, but southerly flow will
begin to kick in to close out the work week. this will a slight
moderation in the cooler airmass and help lift daytime highs up to
around 80 degrees. next prospects for precipitation look to be
during the later half of the weekend when a wave moves out of the
northern plains along the northern periphery of the sw conus ridge.

marine...

a cold front swept across the great lakes overnight, with lingering
thunderstorms exiting east of the local waters this morning. breezy
westerly flow has emerged post-front with small craft advisories in
effect for both wind and wave concerns through wednesday. active
pattern continues as an upper level disturbance glances overhead
this afternoon, leading to additional thunderstorm chances which
could produce a strong to severe storm over the waters. a second
front then sweeps across the area this evening-overnight, shifting
winds further to the northwest and ramping up wind gusts toward gale
force for a brief period this evening (centered around 00z/8pm
local). gusts should quickly diminish with the frontal passage, thus
precluding gale headlines at this time. strong cold advection fills
in behind the front which keeps breezy conditions in place through
wednesday, although drier with the arrival of high pressure that
persists through late this week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt wednesday for lhz422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......kdk
aviation.....drk
discussion...aa
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.