Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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175
fxus61 kcle 051159
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
759 am edt sun jul 5 2026

.what has changed...
patchy dense fog is possible through sunrise this morning. the
potential for localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding has slightly increased for today as well.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through
monday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. localized
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding may be possible today.

2) temperatures will return back to near average today through
tuesday, before becoming slightly above normal towards mid to
late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the main weather concern for today will be a slow moving low
pressure system tracking eastward across the upper ohio valley
and lower great lakes region. first off this morning, there is
some patchy dense fog across far neoh and nwpa. we have a sps
for this patchy fog through sunrise. if trends become
widespread, we may have to put out a short-fused dense fog
advisory this early morning. high-res model guidance that the
weak low pressure system or mcv currently over northern indiana
this morning will slowly track eastward today across northern
ohio and western pennsylvania. pwat values are tropical around
1.8 inches. steering flow is weak around 15 knots or less. we
are expected periodic showers and thunderstorms to develop in
association with the slow moving mcv east to west across the
area. some localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
may be possible with rainfall rates up to 2.0 inches. any
clusters of stronger convection could potentially support a
brief cold pool organization and associated marginal risk for
damaging wind gusts. spc has much of the area highlighted in a
day 1 outlook for severe weather due to an isolated damaging
wind threat. most of the convection should weekend and decrease
in coverage after sunset this evening.

we will rinse and repeat this diurnally driven convection and
rain chances for monday, especially over the southeastern cwa or
areas along and east of i-71. rain chances will decrease by
tuesday and wednesday with weak high pressure building into the
ohio valley. a broad trough will swing through the great lakes
region late this week and bring a cold front across the area
thursday into friday. likely pops will return into the forecast
by the end of the week with scattered showers and storms again.

key message 2...
due to added cloud cover and higher rain chances today and
monday, temperatures will be closer to seasonable averages for
early july. high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today through tuesday. high temps will increase slightly above
average by wednesday and thursday into the middle and upper 80s,
though heat indices should remain below 100. seasonable
temperatures are expected friday into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
some fog and mist is ongoing at 12z, mainly across eastern oh
and into northwestern pa. there are pockets of dense fog,
including at yng. expect this fog/mist to gradually improve
through 14z. outside of convection conditions should return to
mainly vfr through this afternoon. non-vfr ceilings and
visibility may return to some sites tonight.

main focus and challenge with this set of tafs remains shower
and thunderstorm potential. a batch of showers and storms ahead
of an area of weak low pressure is ongoing across northwest oh
and southeast mi as of 12z, with impacts mainly confined to tol
but perhaps clipping mfd and cle before 15z too. this weak low
will drift east-southeast into northern ohio along a slowly
sagging cold front through the afternoon. we may see a brief
break in activity later this morning as the current batch shifts
out over the lake and into canada, with the low and front
expected to focus another round of afternoon and evening showers
and storms. impacts are most likely at tol, fdy, mfd, cak and
perhaps yng this afternoon and early evening near and south of
the front, with lower potential at cle. thunderstorm potential
decreases this evening, though some showers may linger tonight.

light and variable but mainly southerly winds early this
morning will gradually shift more northeasterly through the day
today as the front gradually sags across the area. winds will
remain under 10kt outside of any convection today, with a few
gusts over 30kt possible with any stronger storms.

outlook...non-vfr with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible through tuesday afternoon. scattered thunderstorms are
also possible thursday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds will gradually become established across the
lake today as low pressure approaches from the west and as a
cold front pushes south of the lake. these northeast winds will
increase to 10-20kt tonight and monday, gradually weakening
monday night into tuesday. this will bring a period of 1 to 3
foot waves tonight through parts of tuesday, with potential for
a brief period or two of 4 footers mainly between the islands
and willowick when winds push closer to 20kt tonight and monday.
the wind and wave forecast were nudged up a bit higher with
this package, and would support marginal small craft/beach
hazards headlines for a few zones in the central basin. because
the forecast is very marginal for a headline and conditions
don`t ramp up until tonight will hold off on the headlines with
this cycle, but they may well be coming today. it will still be
on the choppy side on tuesday though conditions will be on a
slow improvement. expect tranquil conditions on wednesday, with
the next cold front bringing slightly elevated winds and some
thunderstorm potential to the lake thursday into friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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512
fxus63 kiwx 051158
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
758 am edt sun jul 5 2026

.key messages...

- numerous showers with a few embedded storms will persist this
morning, especially along and north of the toll road across
far northeast indiana and south central lower michigan. these
may expand south and west this afternoon. locally heavy
rainfall and ponding of water are the main concerns.

- cooler temperatures due to clouds and showers/storms today.
widespread severe storms are not expected but a few storms
could produce wind gusts to 40 mph.

- conditions dry out from northwest to southeast later tonight through
monday evening with seasonable temperatures to begin the
week.

- there is a moderate risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.update...
issued at 758 am edt sun jul 5 2026

forecast thinking from the overnight shift remains spot on at
this point with a pesky, nearly stationary mcv/orphaned low
continuing to allow for the development of showers and a few
storms along and north of an elkhart to angola to defiance line.
radar estimates in portions of east central branch county ne
into hillsdale county indicate locally 2 to 3 inches of rain or
more has fallen with a flood advisory currently in effect until
10 am edt. the activity was trying to edge slowly north, but
some backbuilding has been noted at times so hydro trends will
continue to be monitored. wpc has expanded the marginal risk
for excessive rainfall further west (now covering our entire
area) and the slight risk was expanded north some to include all
of hillsdale and parts of branch county to address both the
concerns this morning as well as the possible uptick in
convection this afternoon as eluded to in the previous afd. will
make some minor tweaks to the grids and continue to monitor
trends.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 340 am edt sun jul 5 2026

primary forecast concern this cycle will be potential of some
localized pockets of heavier rainfall this morning into this evening.

a mid level short wave across northeast illinois, which has likely
been convectively enhanced over past 24 hours will slowly drift east
across southern lower michigan and far northern indiana into this
afternoon. 00z raobs from last evening also depicted a weak mid
level jet streak across central illinois which will continue to
eject northeast into east central in/northwest oh this morning. this
forcing and slow moving nature of this upstream mid level trough has
allowed for renewed development of showers, particularly north of
the toll road along an eastward extension of the low level trough
axis with the ne il vort max. through the early morning hours, low
level circulation with the ne il feature will drift across far
northern indiana and act to enhance some low level moisture
convergence along and north of the toll road. given weak steering
flow and good deep column moisture, the concern persists this
morning for a few pockets of 2+ inches of rainfall with a
possibility of some flooding concerns. some of the higher rainfall
rates could occur in the 09z-12z timeframe as 925-850mb moisture
convergence strengthens.

an unsettled pattern continues for the remainder of the day as a
pair of synoptic upper level short waves gradually phase with
the pre-existing convectively enhanced short wave. this pattern
should allow for some maturation of low level reflection of
these phased systems with weak sfc low pressure gradually
sinking southeast later today into tonight taking sfc boundary
southeast through the area. deep layer shear will continue to be
on the weak side today with mlcapes more moderate today in the
1000-1500 j/kg range. flow magnitudes in the 850-300mb layer
are only expected to be 10 to 15 knots today which should yield
slow storm motions and a potential of localized heavy rainfall
later today given pwats in excess of 1.8 inches. the greatest
potential of some localized heavy rainfall could be east of weak
sfc low development where low level convergence should be
maximized across far northeast indiana into northwest ohio.
otherwise, widespread severe weather is not expected today
although a few precip loaded cores could produce some 40 mph
wind gusts.

a very low confidence side note today could be potential
of some non-supercell circulation formation given the
synoptic/mesoscale setup. development of sfc low feature will
likely be accompanied by an axis of higher sfc/low level
vorticity extending eastward. some modest 100-250 j/kg cape in
the 0-3km layer should be maximized east of this surface low
reflection across extreme northeast indiana into northwest
ohio. the combination of this low level vorticity, low level
cape, and weak low level shear could yield an instance or two of
funnel cloud/weak landspout potential. this is of very low
confidence and would be dependent on extent of cloud cover/low
level instability and whether steeper low level lapse rates can
materialize. it should be noted the setup today does not favor
significant severe weather, with locally heavy rainfall the main
concern.

showers with perhaps a few isolated storms may linger into this
evening, particularly southeast half of the area. waning
instability and gradual slow southeast progression of the old
remnant mcv feature should reduce rain shower coverage from nw
to se tonight.

for monday an additional synoptic short wave will be dropping
south across the mid ms river valley. the negative height
anomaly across the southern great lakes will begin to acquire
more of a cut-off characteristic with expectation that inverted
sfc trough will linger back across ne in/nw oh on monday in
this slowly evolving pattern. low chance pops where maintained
southeast half monday to cover this, but conditions should trend
dry by monday night as drier low level air spreads southeast.
this developing northeast flow pattern will keep temps near or
just below seasonable levels to begin the week.

quiet weather is expected tuesday into the first part of wednesday
as mid/upper level ridging builds in behind the departing upper
trough. a series of pacific waves will dampen this ridge and
allow for quick return of warm/moist advection later wednesday
night into early thursday with eventual frontal passage likely
late thursday. chances of showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this pattern late wed into thu. westerly flow profiles
will increase some as this ridge dampens, but still some
question as to how far east appreciable instability will make
it. medium range guidance suggests western conus ridge may try
to rebuild toward end of the period, with some additional nw
waves possible bringing additional shower chances along with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 632 am edt sun jul 5 2026

a slow moving short wave which has been strengthened by
convection over past 24 hours will slowly track eastward today
into north central indiana. have already started to see some
increase in low level moisture convergence downstream of this
feature this morning across far northern indiana which has
augmented coverage of showers and isolated storms. in the very
near term, the greatest coverage of showers and isolated storms
should remain across extreme northeast indiana into south
central lower michigan. additional scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop today as weak sfc reflection with this
system approaches the area. greatest potential of thunder this
afternoon appears to be in kfwa vicinity where mlcapes around
1000 j/kg are expected in vicinity or just east of sfc
reflection. otherwise today, southward sagging sfc boundary has
promoted some ifr/lifr conditions at ksbn early this morning,
with a potential of brief ifr cigs at kfwa to start the period.
cigs should trend mvfr at ksbn later this morning, with mvfr
cigs possible at kfwa this morning into early afternoon. more
sustained mvfr conditions are likely at kfwa by this evening as
sfc reflection begins to sag southeast.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
942
fxus63 kdtx 051004
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
604 am edt sun jul 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and storms again today as low pressure drifts
south of the state. bulk of activity expected south of i-69.

- locally heavy rainfall is the primary threat from these storms
though an isolated damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out.

- seasonably average heat and humidity to start the new work week
with highs in the lower to mid 80s monday-tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

a low pressure system beginning to track through in/oh is providing
the forcing needed to utilize the reside moist airmass to produce
early morning showers and thunderstorms over sw lower mi. models did
not offer much in the way of convection making it to se mi in the
morning but opted to add a tempo for an early morning round of
showers. tsra may need to be amended if the thunder holds. higher
confidence in afternoon activity especially from ptk southward with
peak heating and the low even closer. could be several hours of
showers with embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening for the detroit area which could lead to flooding concerns
in the area. clouds will hold into tonight but question about how
much moisture remains. could see some light showers holding toward
midnight before drier air ends the precip. northeast flow holds
through the period generally under 10 knots.

d21/dtw convection...chance for thunderstorms exists sunday morning
with better chances during the afternoon and early evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms this morning, medium this afternoon and early
evening.

* medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning, low this
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 308 am edt sun jul 5 2026

discussion...

developing scattered showers over southern mi mark the arrival of
height falls tied to a mid-level shortwave pushing into northern oh.
the resident humid, unstable airmass doesn`t require much in the way of
forcing leading to blossoming coverage through the rest of the
morning as a n/nw flank deformation coalesces over southern se mi.
the stalled frontal boundary bisecting the region sags south over
the metro detroit area this afternoon providing a surface convergence
axis to become the focal point convective initiation. main concern
with this feature is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
flooding- both from training as the parent wave is slow to pivot
across oh maintaining deformation across southern se mi for most of
the afternoon-evening, as well as slow individual storm motion as
column winds are aob 15kts through 500mb. the storm environment
itself is also very favorable for heavy rainfall rates with pwats
around 1.8" and warm cloud layers around 13kft promoting efficient
rain processes. while the lack of column wind/shear precludes much in
the way of storm organization, still can`t rule out a localized
downburst as the strongest cells eventually collapse.

shortwave trough is slow to fully peel away from the southern great
lakes tonight as the now fully closed mid-upper circulation
essentially crawls across the ohio/tennessee valleys. result is
lingering light shower chances through most of the night, mainly
along/south of m-59. drier conditions look to become established by
monday morning as the system slides just enough east to shift
showers over ontario/northern ohio with weak surface high pressure
building in from the northern great lakes. seasonably average
temperatures accompany this high with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

above average temperatures look to make return midweek as low
amplitude plain`s ridging is folded/squeezed into the great lakes-
ohio valley in response to an upper trough ejecting out of the
northern rockies. with the ridge progged to flatten as this occurs,
the core of the associated hotter airmass is favored to hold
southwest of the region towards the mississippi with se mi instead
residing on its fringe. as such, this would limit the chance at
seeing highs in the 90s wednesday with temps topping out in the
upper 80s. trough eventually crosses the great lakes thursday
offering the next shot for the area to see rain.

marine...

northeast flow holds through the day in the wake of a cold front.
winds generally remain light given a weaker pressure gradient
outside of the saginaw bay, where the favorable fetch brings
localized strong winds that range between 20 to 25 knots. as a
result, a small craft advisories will be in effect through the day.
some additional shower and thunderstorm chances will also remain
possible through the day today under the warm and humid airmass.
high pressure builds in tomorrow through tuesday which will promote
dry weather along with continued light flow.

hydrology...

a weak area of low pressure reaches the ohio valley today sparking
additional scattered showers and storms, particularity south of i-
69. a stalled frontal boundary currently near m-59 is expected to
become a focal point for storm development this afternoon
over/around the metro detroit area. environment is favorable for
heavy rain with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr, with rates near
2"/hr in the most robust storms. additionally slow storm motion and
potential for training along the boundary could lead to areas of
localized storm totals in excess of 3 inches. if this occurs there
is increased potential for flash flooding especially in urban, low-
lying, and flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...kdk
marine.......am
hydrology....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.