Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 222006
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
306 pm est thu jan 22 2026

.what has changed...
winter storm watch for all counties now. cold weather advisory for
all zones friday morning through saturday morning. for the winter
storm this weekend, snow amounts have come up a bit area-wide.
timing remains the same.

&&

.key messages...
1) potent winter snow storm will affect the area saturday night
through approximately early monday. significant snow accumulations
should be expected. a winter storm watch is in effect for all
counties.

2) sub-zero wind chills friday morning and actual air temperatures
below zero friday night into saturday morning have prompted a cold
weather advisory for this period.

3) continued cold through next week with temperatures not climbing
above freezing at all in the 7 day forecast.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

operational models now coming into better agreement as the trend
northward with this system into northern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania appears more and more likely. as the system organizes
over the southern plains region, surface low pressure will develop
along the south texas coast. this area of low pressure will track
northeastward saturday into saturday night and into the middle/upper
ohio river valley. on sunday, a southern stream and northern stream
500mb trough axis will phase over the midwest, and a 700mb
trough axis just east of that moves into the lower ohio valley.
this should keep the surface low going through at least sunday
before it gets kicked eastward with the progression of the
mid/upper level systems. given the location and tracks of these
various components, the axis of heavier snowfall will include
much of our cwa, and the southern/southeastern/eastern zones
will get the highest amounts. our northwest ohio counties should
receive the least amount of snow, but that should still be a
5-7 inch range or so as of this forecast issuance. still have a
lot of details to unfold however, as this system is still two
and a half days out. a quicker dissolving or exit to the
aforementioned surface low would lessen snowfall amounts,
especially in the northwestern zones. a stronger band of low
level f-gen could lead to a refinement in the placement and
areal coverage of the heaviest snowfall for our area. also not
being resolved well right now, and if it will even end up as a
feature to explore in the forecast, is a possible trowal which
could extent snowfall on the back end of the event. also
something to watch is the nam and an amplified dry slot moving
in from the southwest late sunday into early sunday night which
could cut off the later end of the snowfall. these are all
things to watch for as the system approaches.


key message 2...

in the more immediate term, another cold front will come through
tonight. some light snow is possible with it, and the northeastern
zones could end up with a quick inch or so, but the main story with
it will be the plummeting temperatures and the increase in the winds
in the wake of the cold front. although it will be difficult to
actually get to the -15 criteria for the cold weather advisory, one
has been issued for our entire area of responsibility from friday
morning through saturday morning. winds and temperatures bring sub
zero wind chills friday morning, while temperatures below zero but
lighter winds warrant the advisory friday night through saturday
morning.


key message 3...

after the exit of the major winter storm monday, temperatures will
remain well below freezing through the end of the week as another
cold front comes through wednesday before any warm ups can occur.
cold canadian high pressure from the canadian prairies spills into
the great lakes with another round of well-below normal temperatures
for the region.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are seen across the region as high pressure will
briefly nudge in during the first part of the taf period. there
are mid level clouds moving west to east across northern
indiana that will move across the northern taf sites this
afternoon, though should stay vfr. a cold front will cross the
region early tomorrow morning between 11-15z that will bring
non-vfr ceilings and scattered snow showers. there is higher
confidence in snow showers from kcle eastward, though lower
confidence at kcak. only keri could see prolonged lake enhanced
snow showers through the end of the taf period with non-vfr
visibilities.

winds will be gusting this afternoon and evening from 20-30
knots out of the west-southwest and will taper off around 22-23z
tonight. overnight, winds will be out of the west at around 10
knots. winds will shift to be out of the west- northwest after
the cold front tomorrow night and start gusting to 20-30 knots
through the end of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lake effect snow showers in
ne oh and nw pa through friday. non-vfr likely late saturday
through early monday in widespread snow showers. possible non-
vfr in ne oh and nw pa with lake effect snow showers early next
week.

&&

.marine...
lake erie is still mostly ice covered as seen by satellite passes
this morning and throughout the day. winds across the lake have
been between 20-30 knots out of the west to southwest which has
caused the ice to move eastward across the lake. there is some
fastened ice just west of the islands in the open waters and that
will continue in the near future. winds will diminish through this
afternoon into the evening down to 15-25 knots across much of the
lake with higher winds near 30 knots possible in the far eastern
basin of the lake. there is potential for winds to reach near gales
in the eastern basin tonight after midnight though it will be brief
and continue to diminish down to 10-20 knots by friday evening. with
the elevated winds, water levels near toledo will be close to
reaching the critical mark for safe navigation this evening, though
should stay above as winds will diminish. waves in the ice free
zones will be around 6-8 feet through friday evening before
diminishing to less than 2 feet by saturday afternoon.

a strong low pressure system will cross south of the great lakes
region this weekend and arctic high pressure will build in behind.
winds will become lighter across the lake at less than 15 knots
through monday morning as another low traverses the region and winds
increase to near 25 knots. there should be decent ice growth across
lake erie this weekend as arctic air will remain in place over the
region for at least the next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 6 am friday to 7 am est saturday
for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
morning for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-047.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
afternoon for ohz010>014-020>023-030>033-038-089.
pa...cold weather advisory from 6 am friday to 7 am est saturday
for paz001>003.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
afternoon for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 222346
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
646 pm est thu jan 22 2026

.key messages...
- arctic air arrives thursday night and lasts through the
weekend. daytime highs on friday and saturday will struggle
to make it out of the single digits.

- expect a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills friday
morning through sunday morning. cold weather advisories will
be in effect area-wide friday morning with wind chills as low
as -15 to -25.

- there is increasing confidence in accumulating snow for the
weekend. a winter storm watch has been issued for 7 pm est
saturday to 7 pm est sunday along and south of us 24.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 224 pm est thu jan 22 2026

lake effect snow, especially friday afternoon into early saturday...

high pressure is briefly building in across the mid mississippi
valley today, keeping the area dry and also bringing some sunshine!
west winds and caa are keeping temperatures confined to the 20s
today. this is the warmest temperatures we will see until the middle
of next week!

lake effect snow is expected to develop this evening and persist
through the day friday. with low inversion heights (less than 5000
ft) and a lack of decent moisture and lift in the dgz, lake effect
may be rather sparse tonight and for friday morning. an arctic cold
front and associated 500 mb shortwave will aid in lift as they pass
through on friday, which should help to invigorate lake effect
during the afternoon and evening hours. inversion heights rise to
between 5000-6000 ft and with lift and moisture in the dgz then
(mainly after 00z sat), lake effect could intensify after dark. as
winds shift to become northwesterly friday afternoon behind the
front, some of the lake effect snow bands that develop may move
further inland. with very cold arctic air moving in though, snow
amounts should be suppressed due to very high slrs. whatever
snow does fall on friday afternoon through early saturday
morning should be incredibly fine. thus, snow amounts are
limited to 1-3" total in the primary sw mi and nw in snowbelts
near lake michigan and less than 0.5" elsewhere downwind of the
lake.

arctic air moves in; bitterly cold friday and through the weekend...

there is high confidence in bitterly cold air that intrudes starting
early friday morning lasting all the way through monday. as a strong
1050mb+ arctic high pressure builds across the central conus, arctic
air spills into the midwest and great lakes. a prolonged period of
sub-zero wind chills starts friday morning and goes through the day
on sunday. actual air temperatures will be in the teens thursday
night, falling throughout the day friday as the aforementioned
arctic cold front moves through. this arctic cold front will result
in breezy west/northwest winds through friday afternoon; gusts
of up to 30 to 35 mph will allow for wind chills to drop to
dangerously cold thresholds. wind chills will be as cold as -15
to -25 friday morning through midday. it is going to be
dangerously cold at times; a cold weather advisory is in effect
for the entire area for early friday morning through saturday
morning (except south of us 24 where wind chills will be
`warmer` due to temps above zero and more clouds) as winds
diminish friday afternoon, wind chills gradually improve
overnight into saturday but remain below zero as actual air
temperatures drop. lows will be 5 to 10 degrees below zero
friday night and highs rebound only into the single digits for
saturday. a bit `warmer` on sunday with highs in the teens.
thankfully, winds will subside this weekend, which will allow
for wind chills rise above zero by sunday.

potential for accumulating snow and travel impacts for the weekend...

we are also keeping an eye on the significant winter storm expected
to impact the southern us. as this low pressure system gets
suppressed south of our area on friday by the aforementioned
strong arctic high, our area won`t see any impacts until the
latter half of the weekend. this strong, phased system will lift
northeast on saturday, arriving to our area by saturday
afternoon. the gfs and ecmwf still have differences in exact
timing, track, and snow amounts, however, they are starting to
agree more on a solution. overnight, the gfs finally caved to
the ecmwf and is trending more northward, which aligns with the
ecmwf (and the nam) on the more northward track of the system.
with this in mind, there are still uncertainties but confidence
is increasing in accumulating snow. in collaboration with
neighboring nws offices, a winter storm watch has been issued
from 7 pm est saturday to 7 pm edt sunday along and south of the
us 24 corridor. if current trends continue, this watch may need
to be extended further north and west. accumulating snow is
possible saturday night into sunday for the entire area, but
especially south of us 30. with ample moisture from the gulf to
tap into, ample lift, and a deep dgz, this strong system will
allow for very high slrs. with all of the cold air already in
place from the arctic high, snow could really add up in some
places. have raised slrs for sunday to account for models
possibly underdoing the slrs. ratios will likely be greater than
seasonal average ratios of 13:1, potentially reaching as high
as 20:1 at times (creating a light and fluffy snow). at this
time, i am not confident or ready to give out exact snow
amounts, but i will say that the winter storm watch area is the
best location to get 6"+. prepare now for winter weather to
impact travel over the weekend, especially saturday night into
the day on sunday. south of us 24 will also be where northwest
winds could gust as high as 20 to 25 mph during the watch
timeframe, so there is also likely going to be blowing and
drifting snow too regardless of how much falls. stay tuned for
future forecast updates!

into early to middle next week, an active pattern remains with
persistent westerly flow, chances for light lake effect snow, and
below normal temperatures. behind the weekend`s winter storm,
west/northwest flow will allow for lake effect snow to redevelop
downwind of lake michigan late sunday into monday. highs in the
teens and lows in the single digits continue. wind chills will be
slightly `warmer` by early next week in the single digits, although
this may not be that noticeable since temperatures will still
be below normal.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 639 pm est thu jan 22 2026

vfr conditions will prevail for both taf sites until around 02z
fri for ksbn with lake effect snow showers dropping south
lowering cigs/vsbys to mvfr categories through the remainder of
the taf period. ceilings will also drop to mvfr at fwa after 12z
fri but looks to remain dry for that site outside a few
flurries. gusty northwesterly winds will continue with gusts
up to 30 kts expected for both sites.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from 4 am est /3 am cst/ friday to 10 am
est /9 am cst/ saturday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-
020-022>026-103-104-116-203-204-216.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for inz018-022>027-032>034.
cold weather advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est friday for inz027-
032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory from 4 am friday to 10 am est saturday
for ohz001-002.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for ohz002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
cold weather advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est friday for ohz004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory from 4 am friday to 10 am est saturday
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...gale warning until 1 pm est friday for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning until 1 am est saturday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
328 pm est thu jan 22 2026

.key messages...

- potential exists for snow showers to develop through early
tonight. the highest coverage with greatest accumulation potential
will exist along and between the i-94 and i-69 corridors. additional
accumulation from a dusting to one inch with only localized areas
over an inch.

- a cold weather advisory is in effect from tonight through saturday
morning due to dangerously cold conditions. wind chills well below
zero are expected, reaching a minimum of -15 to -25f friday morning.

- confidence is increasing for accumulating snowfall on sunday, with
potential for several inches across southeast mi, particularly in
the south.

&&

.discussion...

clipper moving into the northern great lakes being weaker than
previously modeled allowed westerly low level winds to hold across
the region today. this has maintained lake effect streamers, some
heavy- particularly this morning, into the m-59/i-69 corridors.
little expectation for change for late afternoon-evening timeframe
with westerly winds keeping scattered snow showers streaming across
the bulk of se mi capable of a quick dusting to a half inch in
heavier activity. clipper system eventually drives an arctic cold
front through lower mi late evening-tonight with models trending a
bit slower, arriving between 7-11pm. polar continental origin keeps
accompanying moisture anemic with this frontal boundary instead
augmenting/enhancing ongoing lake effect. given lead-in flow
favoring lake effect snow showers primarily focused from the i-69 to
i-94 corridors, this stretch would be favored to see bursts of
higher intensity cells/bands supporting a quick half to one inch
accumulation with localized amounts in excess of an inch. shift to
northwesterly flow and significantly drier airmass post front cuts
off activity into se mi with only flurries at best going into friday.

coldest air of the season thus far settles over the great lakes
friday as 850mb temps crater to near -30c. a midnight high is likely
as temperatures fall from the teens tonight to around 0f (give or
take a couple degrees on either side) by friday morning with diurnal
heating only nudging temps back to positive single digits- near
daily record low max highs. strong cold advection promotes blustery
wnw winds throughout tonight/daytime friday with gusts ranging 25-
35mph overnight/friday am weakening towards 20-25mph friday pm.
resultant wind chills bottom out between -15 to -25f by friday
morning and only recover to negative teens/single digits later day.
strong arctic high pressure then builds in friday night bringing
light winds by saturday morning however also promoting clearing
skies for the night. this allows actual temperatures to fall towards
-10f if not negative teens threatening the daily record low min
temps. cold weather advisories remain in effect for both friday
morning and friday night-saturday morning as a result.

attention then turns to the broad southern conus winter storm system
for the weekend. aside from the gfs, which has trended north to an
degree as well, ecmwf/canadian model families (and now the nam)
remain firm on the northerly track clipping southern lower mi with
little run-to-run variation lending confidence for impactful
accumulating snowfall sunday, particularly over the southern half of
the cwa where these solutions are consistent wanting a 0.25-0.45"
qpf range. lead snow could reach the southern areas by midnight
saturday night though the main accumulating snowfall looking to fall
roughly between 12z sun-06z mon. mid-range model soundings are
advertising dgz saturation from 950-500mb for at least a portion of
the event which does offer some concern for ample available
dendrites increasing snow ratios above the average 10-12:1. however
within ensemble guidance, little change in probabilities of
exceedence of 6" with really only monroe county seeing noteworthy
chances of 20-30%. with this current limited footprint for potential
warning criteria snowfall and only now just getting into both the
mid-range model and watch window, no headline decisions were
considered for this forecast package.

&&

.marine...

an arctic airmass will continue to expand across the great lakes
with the coldest air arriving overnight. the expansion of arctic air
will maintain strong overlake instability and a deep mixing layer
which will retain breezy conditions. wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots
are expected through tomorrow morning with gust to gales most likely
across central and southern lake huron, where a gale warning remains
in effect. for locations north, some isolated gust to gales remain
possible, especially through tomorrow morning. otherwise, a heavy
freezing spray warning remains in effect for all of lake huron given
the cold temperatures and breezy conditions. last, low-level
convergence will support the development of snow squalls which
become more likely tonight and overnight, favored across central and
northern lake huron. rapid reductions in visibilities are likely
under any snow squall.

arctic air holds over the weekend but a reduction in wind speeds
will commence late friday into saturday as a strong high pressure
system expands over the great lakes. an expansive low pressure
system over the eastern us will clip the southern great lakes
sunday, bringing widespread light snow through the day.

&&

.climate...

the record low max temps for friday, january 23rd.

detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1883)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1959)
saginaw: 3 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1243 pm est thu jan 22 2026

aviation...

steady lake michigan moisture flux in cold westerly flow will
continue to direct snow showers into the mainly the ptk/fnt corridor
during the afternoon and early evening hours. this will contribute
to intervals of ifr visibility within the heaviest bursts. dtw/yip
airspace will largely remain outside this moisture plume prior to
sunset. a greater expansion in coverage of snow showers expected
early tonight as existing convergence increases along an inbound
arcitc front. highest confidence again across the fnt/ptk corridor
given expected persistence to ongoing activity, but will continue to
highlight a possible window in detroit. outside of snow showers,
prevailing mvfr to low vfr ceiling expected. westerly winds gusting
over 25 knots through the remainder of the day. winds becoming
northwesterly and remaining gusty with in the passage of the front
overnight. drier northwest flow will emerge late tonight and friday.
this may allow for some reduction in cloud coverage friday morning.

for dtw...greatest potential for scattered snow shower development
between 23z and 07z tonight. wind shift to northwesterly with the
passage of arctic front around or just after midnight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet through through tonight. low
friday.

* high for precip type as snow through the taf period.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory from 1 am friday to 10 am est saturday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 6 am est saturday for lhz361>363-
462>464.

gale warning until 4 am est friday for lhz363-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......am
climate......tf
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.