Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
755 pm est mon feb 16 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) patchy dense fog possible again tonight, particularly across
northwest pennsylvania.

2) above average temperatures expected through friday before falling
near to below normal for the weekend. with the increased
temperatures, the remaining snow pack will melt providing a
minor risk in river rises and ice jams.

3) periodic precipitation expected this week. wednesday will have
the highest potential for rain showers with another chance on
friday. rain/snow mix possible this weekend with a colder air mass
over the region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
patchy dense fog may develop again overnight tonight as high
pressure continues to build east across the region where
saturated low levels persist. latest href guidance shows
probabilities of 1/2 mile or less visibility ranging between
40-50% areawide with locally higher probabilities 70-90% across
northwest pennsylvania.

key message 2...
upper level ridge will build across the eastern conus through the
week. persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will lead to 850mb
temperatures rising to +5c to +8c across the region, roughly the
90th to 95th percentile when compared to climatology. a prolonged
period of above average temperatures is anticipated beneath this
upper level ridge with daily highs in the low to mid 50s monday and
tuesday. a warm front lifts across the region wednesday morning
leading to highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s by wednesday
afternoon. for reference, average temperatures in mid to late
february are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. highs
remain above normal thursday and friday before dropping back
down near to below normal this weekend behind a cold front.

this extended period of above normal temperatures may lead to
localized impacts due to the melting of the existing snow pack and
ice jams. will continue to monitor the potential for ice jams over
the next few days.

key message 3...
multiple periods of showers will continue through the forecast
period. a weak shortwave aloft pushes across the great lakes region
which may bring some light rain showers to a portion of the forecast
area tonight. any slight chance to chance pops will be confined to
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. qpf will be negligible.

a series of low pressure systems will track across the great lakes
and ohio valley regions wednesday through the weekend providing
multiple chances for precipitation. the first system arrives on
wednesday and will lift a warm front northeastward across the local
area. precipitation on wednesday will remain as all rain given the
warm temperatures aloft and at the surface behind the warm front.
can`t rule out a rumble of thunder and gusty showers as surface
based cape values rise to the 250-500 j/kg range and a strong
llj 40-45 knots moves overhead wednesday morning through
wednesday afternoon. initial push of rain showers exits late
wednesday night with a dry window expected through thursday
evening.

another low pressure system arrives from the southwest on thursday
night and will move across the local area through friday. the region
will remain in the warm sector which will keep the p-type as
all rain before the cold front swings through friday night.
still some uncertainty in the placement of the next system for
the weekend, but a cooler airmass in place will lead to any
precipitation that occurs to fall as a rain/snow mix.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
an expansive area of fog and low stratus has developed over
northeast ohio this evening and will continue to expand across
the region with the support from ample low level moisture and
warm advection eating away at any remaining snow pack.
conditions are a bit less severe than last night but several
sites are in the lifr range with ceilings under 500 ft, which
will remain through the overnight, and there may be some
intermittent fog less than 1sm. there is lower certainty on how
far northwest this fog and low stratus will get. will have some
mvfr mention at kfdy and ktol but there is a low chance for ifr
in these locations. suspect that any fog and low stratus will
take some time on tuesday to mix out and poor conditions may
linger until the 15 to 17z range. winds will initially have some
potential for gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range but will subside to
southwest at 10 kts or less overnight into tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr conditions possible wednesday and thursday
night into friday in rain showers.

&&

.marine...
lake erie continues to remain ice covered. according to glerl,
there is a swatch of ice just east of the lake erie islands that
is much thinner than the rest of the ice.

winds across lake erie will gradually increase tonight from the
southwest to 10-12 knots before remaining calm on tuesday. a
more notable increase in winds will occur on wednesday as a warm
front lifts north. winds from the south-southwest are expected
to increase to 20-25 knots. winds will briefly weaken before
once again becoming elevated late thursday into friday. in
addition to the increased winds, a prolonged period of above
average temperatures (and temperatures above freezing) will
begin to deteriorate the ice sheet. as a result, ice will
become more fragile and more prone to ice floes. it is critical
that people remain off of the ice on lake erie this week!
shifting ice can result in persons becoming stranded and current
shipping lanes becoming closed.

in addition to the primary concern of the ice, there is a chance
of patchy dense fog tonight across portions of the lake, but
given low confidence have opted not to issue anything at this
point.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
626 pm est mon feb 16 2026

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected this
week. mild and breezy wednesday with record highs possible.

- rain showers are likely tuesday night into wednesday morning, and
again late thursday into friday.

- cooler by the end of the week (highs in the 30s) with
rain/snow mix chances into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 222 pm est mon feb 16 2026

a cold front is sweeping through the upper midwest and will become
stalled across lower michigan tonight. with continued snowpack
melting and light winds overnight, fog will be possible again
overnight into tuesday morning, especially south of the stalled
surface boundary. i don`t expect fog to be as widespread as earlier
this morning. a lot of the hi-res model guidance (hrrr, nam, rap,
etc) is trending colder tomorrow with the stalled boundary draped
across lower michigan. low level cold air advection is modeled on
several models for tuesday across our area, most notably on the
rap where 925mb temps are around 5c. models are suggesting
maybe we only get into the 40s tomorrow with the surge of waa
not happening until tuesday night into wednesday; this may be
too cold of a solution though. i did not want to deviate too far
from previous forecasts but i have adjusted high temperatures
down for tuesday into the upper 40s for lower michigan (as
opposed to low 50s which is what was previously forecast). with
stratus around tomorrow and depending on where exactly the front
stalls, i think that it isn`t unreasonable if the entire area
struggles to get into the 50s tomorrow. will let the next shift
adjust as needed based on future model guidance overnight.

an active weather pattern returns to the area this week with several
opportunties for rain. a developing upper level jet will allow
for several low pressure systems to impact the area this week.
the first chance for precipitation will come as rain tuesday
night into wednesday. a surface low will develop and deepen over
the upper midwest, which will help a stalled stationary/warm
front lift north and clear out of our area tuesday night.
additional moisture will move into the area with this airmass
with pwats up to 1" and dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50.
rain lifts north and overspreads the area overnight,
temperatures follow a non-diurnal curve tuesday night and warm
into the 50s by wednesday morning. there may also be some weak,
elevated instability overnight which may allow for a few
embedded rumbles of thunder. we dry out during wednesday morning
and with our forecast area firmly in the warm sector, near
record to record highs are possible. given strong waa and gusty
southwest winds, along and south of us 30 should be well into
the mid to maybe even upper 60s wednesday afternoon!

another opportunity for rain (and maybe a few thunderstorms?)
arrives thursday afternoon into friday. another surface low will
lift through the midwest, with convection following on the
leading edge of a warm front thursday afternoon/evening.
forecast sounding show mid level dry air to overcome thursday
afternoon, but still expecting 30-50% rain chances by the
evening hours. aided by a 500mb shortwave, the environment will
be sufficient to produce rain and maybe even a few storms into
the overnight hours. mid range model guidance does depict modest
wind shear of around 40 kts, ~500 j/kg of mucape, and good mid
level lapse rates along the front of ~8c/km. spc has a day 4 15%
severe risk for thursday to the south of our area; we are not
expecting severe weather at this time but can`t rule out a few
gusty storms in our forecast area with this system.

despite the warm week, don`t let false spring fool you! it`s still
february, meaning we still have several weeks of winter to go. we
return back to reality by the weekend with highs in the 30s, lows in
the teens, and low chances (20-30%) for rain/snow mix with an upper
level trough over the great lakes.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 625 pm est mon feb 16 2026

fog is the main concern tonight given waa over cold ground and
recent snowmelt. signal is much less clear tonight though due to
a bit more southerly flow keeping surface temps warmer. near-
surface moisture profiles are also slightly drier than last
night and there remains some upper level clouds. hi-res guidance
is much less supportive than last night, most notably the hrrr.
will therefore temper vis forecast and hold with just tempo 1sm
as there is still potential for patchy br at times during the
early morning. otherwise, vfr expected this evening and most of
the day tuesday. the next system with associated rain and low
clouds does not arrive until tuesday night (just after 00z).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
704 pm est mon feb 16 2026

.key messages...

- mild temperatures will persist through thursday.

- the next round of precipitation is on schedule for tuesday night
and wednesday. all rain is expected with a low chance for freezing
rain north of m 46.

- a rain/snow mix moves in by friday followed by a temperature drop
back toward mid/late february normals this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a weak cold frontal boundary will ease into the region tonight
through tuesday morning. drier late evening conditions will maintain
vfr early tonight as pockets of higher based cloud funnels through
at times. favorable conditions will exist again for some degree of
fog and/or low stratus development during the early-mid morning
hours. forecast will continue to highlight widespread mvfr, with a
window for ifr to emerge mainly across the detroit corridor. as flow
turns northeasterly north of the front, potential for lower stratus
to expand southward into mbs during the latter half of the morning.
confidence in lower cloud development and maintainance remains low
tuesday, as daytime heating works to offset renewed development
along the existing front throughout the day. forcast maintains a
scattered mention at this stage.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight into
tuesday morning.

* low for cig at or below 5000 feet late tonight thru tuesday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 315 pm est mon feb 16 2026

discussion...

a cluster of showers and thunderstorms traversed northern lower mi
today, associated with a compact mid level short wave. current
observational trends indicate the rain remaining north of the thumb
late this afternoon. south of this feature, southerly flow has
driven an axis of warm low level air across se mi. enough diurnal
mixing has occurred today to drive temps into the 50s over much of
the forecast area. weak sfc low pressure trailing the precipitation
across the northern lakes will track east of lake huron tonight and
will drive a weak cold front into se mi. weakening of the sfc flow,
nocturnal cooling and ample boundary layer moisture will provide
favorable conditions for fog and low stratus development. sfc high
pressure will expand across lake huron on tuesday, allowing an
easterly component to the surface winds. this will suppress tuesday
highs a bit in relation to today, with forecast highs in the 40s
(30s near the lake huron shore).

an upper wave will translate across the midwest tues night and
across lower mi wednesday. excellent deep layer moist isentropic
ascent will proceed this wave, aided by the ageostrophic response
within the exit region of a 160 knot upper jet. the ascent will be
focused overnight tuesday into wednesday morning. this combined with
efficient gulf moisture transport will support widespread rain. wet
bulb cooling within the easterly flow may allow temps to drop below
freezing for a time across portions of midland/bay/huron counties
tues night. this will warrant a mention of freezing rain in these
areas. given the surge of warm air, the risk for anything more than
a glaze of icing looks minimal. steepening mid level lapse rates
within the ascent will also support a slight chance of
thunderstorms. the passage of the mid level trough will allow mid
level drying to take hold during the latter half of the day
wednesday. the upper wave is forecast to become more elongated
across the northern lakes wednesday. this and the icy waters of the
great lakes will limit the northward progress of the associated warm
front into se mi wednesday. model guidance is supportive of highs
reaching the upper 50s/lower 60s south and upper 30s/lower 40s
across the northern saginaw valley and thumb.

there is reasonable model agreement showing a secondary wave
emerging in the lee of the central rockies and rotating into the
great lakes thurs night into friday, proving the next chance for
precipitation, mainly rain. seasonally cold air is forecast to
circulate around this system and into se mi friday/saturday.

marine...

widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms exit into ontario over
the next hour or so, driven by the surface low that is currently
tracking across northern michigan. this low pushes into lake huron
this evening while a strong inversion just off the deck caps gusts
around 20 knots. the system`s cold front sags across lower michigan
overnight, eventually setting up a deformation axis that splits flow
from northwest across lake huron to southwest across lake erie.
meanwhile, the next low pressure system deepens upstream causing
winds to organize out of the east-southeast locally by tuesday
night. elevated portions of the warm front expand across the
waterways wednesday, but enough depth to the cold air remains in
place across northern lake huron to mix down enhanced low level jet
winds. a gale watch has been issued north of sturgeon point as
easterly gusts reach 35 to 40 knots for most of the daytime hours
wednesday. marine areas south of sturgeon point likely see rain with
this system, with increasing chances for wintry mix to the north.
next round of elevated wind potential comes friday as another low
pressure system impacts the great lakes region.

hydrology...

widespread rain will precede an upper wave and associated warm front
tuesday night into wednesday. there has been a slight reduction in
forecast rainfall totals in the latest probabilistic guidance,
suggesting low to moderate probabilities for one quarter to one half
inch of rain south of i-95 and low to moderate probabilities for a
half to three quarters inch north. the rain will occur on top of a
melting snowpack that has a snow water equivalent analysis ranging
between 0.5" to 1". the combination of rain and snow melt on frozen
ground may lead to rises on area streams and rivers. ponding of
water on roads is also possible, especially where drains could be
blocked by snow and/or winter debris.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from late tuesday night through wednesday afternoon for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sc
marine.......mv
hydrology....sc

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.