Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
870
fxus61 kcle 102353
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
753 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

.what has changed...
rain chances this evening into tonight have increased a bit as a
shortwave moves across the area. have also introduced patchy to
areas of fog to the forecast for tonight into early friday
morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) a batch of very light rain will quickly slide across the area
early tonight. patchy fog may develop early friday morning.

2) humid conditions with shower and storm chances will return on
saturday with periodic showers and thunderstorms possible next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the cold front has pushed south of the area early this evening.
a shortwave is allowing some light rain to quickly spread east
across the area north of the front. somewhat dry low-levels mean
there`s a bit more bark than bite to the radar, with any rain
amounts under 0.05. the shortwave exits east overnight, taking
the rain with it and allowing skies to clear with light winds.
not an ideal setup for widespread dense fog early friday morning,
but there will likely be at least some in typical low-lying/
less urban areas that are most prone to radiational cooling fog.

key message 2...
after a brief break from both humidity and rain chances on
friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the area
saturday as a warm front lifts through the region. the greatest
probability of showers and thunderstorms will be across southern
and eastern areas during the day. the potential for gusty winds
in thunderstorms is still there, but confidence is low due to
likelihood of daytime cloud cover and uncertainty with the
placement/timing of the best instability and forcing. dew points
will once again reach the upper 60s and lower 70s on saturday
so it will be quite humid. isolated showers can`t be ruled out
as a cold front attempts to cross the region on sunday with dry
weather favored on monday as high pressure briefly builds in
from the west. another period of unsettled weather is likely as
a series of disturbances ripple across the region tuesday
through at least wednesday, though there is still low confidence
in the exact timing/placement of showers and thunderstorms and
any resulting impacts/hazards.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
a batch of light rain, falling out of an 8000-10000 foot cloud
deck, is quickly moving east across northern ohio this evening.
while a few sites will briefly observe -ra, no restrictions are
expected. handled with a vcsh mention at most sites. this rain
and its mid-level cloud deck will exit east through 5z. there
will be a window of relatively clear and calm conditions late
tonight into early friday and still have tempo groups for mvfr
br at a few taf sites early friday morning. however, the
extensive clouds the first half of the night and hints at winds
struggling to go truly calm overnight has lowered confidence in
more widespread/impactful fg/br compared to the prior taf cycle.
vfr conditions are expected on friday after any early fg/br
clears. winds will be light at <7kt and generally out of the
north-northwest tonight. winds shift more east-northeast but
remain under 10kt through the day friday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms on
saturday, especially during the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds between 5 and 10 knots this evening will shift
to the northeast as high pressure builds over lake erie tonight
into friday morning. winds may increase by a few knots as they
shift to the southeast in response to an approaching warm front
late friday into early saturday before becoming south/southwest
during the day saturday. northwest winds are expected as a cold
front moves over the lake at some point sunday. winds will
remain well below small craft advisory limits through the
weekend, although headlines may be needed in the western/central
basins as northeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots early
monday morning. at the very least, there will probably be
moderate swim risks. winds may remain elevated as southerly flow
deepens monday night into tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15/sullivan
aviation...sullivan
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
143
fxus63 kiwx 102233
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
633 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry through friday with seasonable temperatures and
low humidity.

- next chances for rain/storms will be saturday, with the highest
chances of 40-60% south of us 24.

- dry, slightly warmer, and more humid sunday and monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

surface high pressure building across the midwest and eventually
into the great lakes later tonight will yield mainly dry conditions
through friday. the cold front that was supposed to come through
yesterday slowed quite a bit from what was originally anticipated
and stalled just to our northwest this morning; as that front now
makes its way through our forecast area today, an area of showers is
passing through north-central indiana as seen on current radar.
while i can`t rule out an isolated storm, a tight moisture gradient
in the low levels and sbcape of 1000 j/kg or less should keep
widespread chances at bay. highs in the upper 70s are expected
today. it will be noticeably less humid with dewpoints only in
the 50s once the front passes through and northwest flow ensues
on the backside, ushering in much drier air tonight.

much like last night, patchy dense fog is possible given clear skies
and light winds. should radiation fog occur, visibilities should not
be as low as they were this morning given a lack of saturation at
the surface. i would expect that areas south of us 24 would be most
primed for fog to develop today given the showers currently moving
through. friday will be a fantastic day with high pressure overhead
providing low humidity, highs near 80 degrees, and lots of sunshine!

our next chances for rain and storms arrive starting before daybreak
saturday and continuing, especially south of us 24 once again,
throughout the day saturday. far northwest indiana and southwest
lower michigan may stay entirely dry given that the better dynamics
for this rain/storm potential will be to our southeast. a warm front
will lift northward saturday, and with a developing upper level
trough over the great lakes, scattered showers and storms appear
increasingly likely for our southeast half. there is some
uncertainty on how far north and west the rain will get, with our
highest pops of about 40-60% south of us 24 on saturday. the ecmwf
has the trough at 500mb slightly more amplified and further east by
saturday afternoon than the gfs and nam do so that will make a
difference too as to where and when the highest pops occur. severe
weather is not expected at this time on saturday.

zonal flow continues aloft as yet another upper level ridge
builds across the central conus, so have maintained warmer than
normal temperatures and low chances (20%) for pops through
sunday and monday. since it is still several days out, there is
still a lot of uncertainty in how the overall synoptic pattern
evolves early next week. some models have a frontal system
coming through the midwest and upper great lakes tuesday while
others keep the upper level ridge dominant over the area. there
are no clear signs of fall in any of the long range guidance as
our forecast area looks to remain sandwiched between hot and
humid air to our south and cooler, drier air to our north for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 633 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

slow moving cold front sinking through kfwa early this evening
with showers/sprinkles and low chances for a brief period of
mvfr ending at or shortly after issuance. some concern once
again for patchy br formation toward daybreak tomorrow at mainly
kfwa, though confidence is low regarding coverage/impact.
dry/vfr otherwise as a drier air mass filters in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
093
fxus63 kdtx 102252
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with near-normal, pleasant temperatures for the end of
the week.

- a slight chance for a shower saturday afternoon, otherwise a quiet
weekend, accompanied by slightly above-normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure centered over the region will continue to influence
conditions through friday. favorable environment will exist for
shallow fog formation, with greater potential again from ptk
northward into fnt/mbs. forecast will continue to highlight a window
for ifr visibility restrictions at these locations, while the
probability for lifr in dense fog will exist. much lower confidence
in occurrance across the detroit corridor precludes a mention here
at this stage. outside of fog chances, vfr conditions to then
continue into friday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms will occur through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 328 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

discussion...

quasi-zonal upper level flow over portions of the pacific northwest
and southern canada will bring low amplitude ridging to the central
great lakes through at least the middle portions of the weekend
period. calm winds and time of year considerations suggests some fog
potential at daybreak friday morning. surface condensation pressure
deficits point to some likelihood particularly in the thumb down to
the i69 corridor. mos guidance also shows some signal and decided to
add patchy fog to the gridded database. temperatures will be in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees each of the next 3 days which is at
or slightly above normal.

models suggest that by late saturday there is a slight chance for
some showers across southern portions of the forecast area during
peak heating. from a macro perspective, weak deformation forcing can
arise out of latent heating churn that typically occurs inside of an
upper level ridge. in this case there is a ribbon of potential
vorticity that is resolved near the ohio river that begins to
migrate northward. big limitation will be the residual subsidence
that resides in the 2.0 to 7.0 kft agl layer that will serve as a
good capping inversion.

troughing then enters and expands through lower michigan sunday
pushing a cold front through the region. with post frontal mixing
temperatures are not expected to cool that much for sunday but
dewpoints will be some 8 to 10 degrees lower. chilly conditions are
expected sunday night with some 40s possible in midland county by
monday morning. another round of ridging is anticipated for monday
and tuesday.

marine...

winds steadily weaken this evening as high pressure builds over the
central great lakes. said high then drifts overhead through friday
night leading to benign marine conditions to close the work week.
active pattern returns late this weekend as low pressure lifting
through northern ontario drags a cold front into the area before it
looks to stall over lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.