Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
978
fxus61 kcle 071155
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
755 am edt thu may 7 2026

.what has changed...
frost potential is decreasing tonight with clouds and scattered rain
entering more quickly. rain chances are increasing on friday with an
incoming system.

&&

.key messages...
1) cool weather will continue today with some spotty showers
possible tonight. clouds and rain into the region will reduce the
potential for frost tonight.

2) several rounds of rain are expected friday through sunday.
new rainfall amounts should be less than one inch with no
flooding concerns at this time.

3) below normal temperatures are expected early next week with
frost chances on sunday night and monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a surface ridge will briefly remain across the area for today,
allowing for dry weather. temperatures will remain on the cool
side of normal with highs in the 50s. an upper trough with a
surface warm front will enter tonight and allow for clouds with
some scattered rain showers. these clouds and rain showers are
timed a bit quicker than previous model cycles and this could
eliminate any frost potential tonight, as temperatures may stay
in the upper 30s or warmer.

key message 2...
a broader upper trough over the great lakes region will support
the development of a low pressure system in the region and allow
for rain activity for friday through saturday. the main warm
front will cross the area on friday with a subtle shortwave
trough. this should allow for some rain development across the
area on friday and have maintained pops. the main show for rain
should be friday night with a more refined shortwave entering
with a 35 kt low level jet helping generate some rain activity.
have increased pops to a mix of likely and categorical.
temperatures will moderate a touch on friday and saturday with
60s and maybe some lower 70s possible. a pair of cold fronts
will move through the region on saturday and sunday, bringing
additional rain chances each day. rainfall amounts should be
less than one inch through a four day period and flooding issues
are not expected at this time.

key message 3...
the pattern changing cold front will move through the area on
sunday and temperatures will return to below normal for 36-48
hours. low temperatures on sunday night and monday night will be
in the 30s and 40s. with a dry and clearing air mass, there will
be the potential for frost on sunday and monday nights, where
temperatures can get into the low-to-mid 30s. high temperatures
will be in the 50s to maybe 60 on monday and tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
vfr will continue through the taf period as high pressure
gradually departs. a few showers are possible late tonight into
early friday morning as a low pressure system approaches from
the west. the best chance for rain is in far eastern ohio and
western pa, so went with prevailing showers at keri.

light and variable winds this morning will turn w this afternoon
and increase to 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots at times.
winds will become sw tonight and decrease to 5-10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers early friday. periodic
showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are expected through the
weekend, best chance friday through saturday afternoon and
during the day sunday.

&&

.marine...
the lake will remain relatively quiet through the start of next
week as pressure gradients remain relatively weak, supporting
mostly low impact winds and waves. w winds will increase to
10-15 knots this afternoon, building waves up to 2 feet, before
turning sw and decreasing slightly to 5-15 knots tonight and
turning ssw and further decreasing to under 10 knots friday. s
to sw winds will gradually increase friday night and reach 10-15
knots by saturday afternoon before turning n and decreasing to
5-10 knots behind a fairly sharp cold front late saturday night
and sunday. n winds will then increase to 10-15 knots sunday
night and monday. no marine headlines are expected at this time
through early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 071043
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
643 am edt thu may 7 2026

.key messages...

- frost advisory early today far southern lower michigan.

- scattered to numerous showers at times through sunday.

- a gradual warming trend the rest of the week with highs around
70 by saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 345 am edt thu may 7 2026

chilly temperatures were over the region early this morning
where patchy to areas of frost are expected. a frost advisory
remains in effect over all of far southwest lower michigan
where some clouds over most areas were still holding
temperatures above 40 degrees as of 3 am edt.

a large upper low was over southern hudson bay. 500 mb height
anomalies were in the vicinity of negative 400 meters per gfs.
impulses associated with this system were helping to generate
light showers. a strong impulse will top the upper level ridge
early next week and bring showers and a slight chance for
thunderstorms from tuesday into wednesday.

the atmospheric environment will have very limited instability
all of the way through the middle of next week with maximum cape
values generally less then 400 j/kg. low-topped convection is
likely, but els will be quite low - generally under 15k. no
severe thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 640 am edt thu may 7 2026

primarily vfr conditions expected through this forecast valid
period, with possible exception being any heavier shower
activity later this afternoon/evening.

an upper level short wave across northeast iowa will dig across
the southern great lakes region through mid afternoon, but will
have meager moisture to work with. as this short wave begins to
pull off to the east, a zone of stronger isentropic ascent and
moisture advection will try to shift into northern indiana with
warm-front like feature across northern illinois. dry subcloud
layers should limit instability but given strength of low level
frontogenesis forcing and potential of some very weak sfc-based
instability late afternoon/early evening, would expect scattered
shower development in possibly a narrow corridor from ne il
into northern in. both terminals appear vulnerable to some
window for shower potential, with the window looking to be of
shorter duration at ksbn late afternoon/early evening before
stronger 925-850mb fgen forcing slips to the south. cannot
completely discount some isolated thunder given strength of
frontal forcing and weak instability, but confidence in thunder
at terminals is very low. potential of showers should diminish
at kfwa closer to midnight tonight as forcing mechanisms drop
south of the terminal. otherwise, boundary layer averaged winds
this afternoon of around 15 knots could promote some gusts into
the 15 to 20 knot range at both ksbn and kfwa during peak
mixing hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 071303 aaa
afddtx

area forecast discussion...updated
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
903 am edt thu may 7 2026

.key messages...

- cool and mainly dry today, but isolated showers are possible at
times between the afternoon hours and the early overnight period.

- temperatures recover into the 60s on friday with a few overnight
showers possible to the south.

- warmer saturday with showers and thunderstorms increasingly likely
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...

system-relative isentropic descent and drying within the 5-12 kft
agl layer is evident in early morning goes imagery as a partial
clearing line advances southwestward across southeast michigan. a
broken mid-level cloud layer based from 7-11 kft agl resulted in
inefficient nocturnal cooling during the first half of the night.
temperatures are still hovering in the low to mid 40s for some areas
under the frost advisory, particularly for points southeast of a
line from owosso to port huron. meanwhile, shortwave troughing
embedded within the southern extent of retrograding vertically
stacked low pressure over hudson bay ushers in a final dose of
seasonably cold canadian air. even though the core of the thermal
trough resides over northwest ontario, kinl 07.00z raob indicated a
500 mb of -28c while positioned along the gradient, approximately 7c
colder than the kdtx raob. the glancing cold advection should offer
a slight boost to cooling prior to sunrise, appropriately timed as
skies finally trend clearer.

for the rest of today, additional cyclonically curved low amplitude
shortwaves move atop lower michigan into the afternoon and evening
hours while fringe surface ridging attempts to build beyond
southwest michigan. low potential exists for isolated pop-up diurnal
showers as a lean channel of 850-700 mb moisture spreads into
southern lower, arriving in time for the diurnal cycle. 07.00z
solutions have trended notably lower with the initiation of isolated
showers and qpf footprint for the pm hours, compared to 24 hours
ago. in spite of healthy lapse rates, forecast soundings reflect
well-advertised low-level dryness, suggesting higher confidence in
scattered virga than actual showers. today will be the coolest day
of the week as highs should struggle to break out of the mid 50s.
becoming breezier later in the day as lower column winds rise ahead
of the next wave while a deep mixed-layer supports downward momentum
transfer. brief gusts of 20-30 mph should conclude by late evening.
an embedded shortwave feature in-two moves from northern indiana
into northern ohio early tonight with meager thetae advection.
perhaps enough lift/moistening will ensue for a secondary sparse
light rain response, for some locations across the southern half of
the forecast area.

high amplitude longwave troughing persists across eastern north
america on friday with perturbed geopotential height field in place
throughout the great lakes. temperature profiles begin to moderate
as lower column flow orients southwesterly. a wave along the lee
side of the rockies moves across the southern plains on friday,
leading to increasingly confluent low-level trajectories. this
introduces a plume of higher thetae air into the southern part of
the state and even a bit of instability as pwats rise. warmer
saturday with southwest flow locked-in ahead of a cold front
connected to a chain of weak surface lows moving through central
michigan. timing has moved up with the frontal passage, now favored
saturday afternoon. standard post-frontal northwesterly wind shift,
drier conditions, and a cooler airmass arise to close out the
weekend. unsettled pattern continues early next week as hudson bay
low remains stationary, eventually getting forced out by a
progressive pacific northwest speed max.

&&

.marine...

minimal marine concerns in the next few days as we are locked in
with a broad upper level trough through that time. weak pressure
gradient at the surface due to high pressure building in from the
south, will keep winds light, generally under 20 knots through
friday. there will be several weak systems over the region during
this time as well but really only amounting to low chances of
precipitation. the next notable cold front will come through on
saturday bringing increased winds and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 626 am edt thu may 7 2026

aviation...

despite the passage of a mid level short wave this afternoon, ample
low level dry air will limit the chances for showers and will
maintain high based clouds (mainly above 5000 feet). there will be a
more robust expansion of this clouds during the afternoon
corresponding to diurnal heating and mid level moisture advection
associated with the passage of the aforementioned short wave.
daytime boundary layer growth will increase afternoon winds, with
gusts likely in the 20 to 25 knot range.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......drk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.