Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
722 am edt fri oct 23 2026

.what has changed...
areas to widespread frost will be expected from north central
ohio to northwest pennsylvania on saturday and sunday mornings.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and seasonable conditions will continue into next week.
there will be the potential for areas to widespread frost and
some areas of freezing conditions saturday and sunday mornings.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue building south through eastern
canada and into the new england states will continue to permit
dry and seasonable conditions through early next week. some
morning fog remains possible this morning and again on saturday
morning. the main forecast concern will be on saturday and
sunday morning when the high is both at its closest and
strongest to the area. this will allow for temperatures to drop
into the 30s for much of the area and some sheltered locations
may catch an upper 20 degree reading. areas to widespread frost
will be expected from north central ohio to northwest
pennsylvania on saturday and sunday morning. frost/freeze
headlines may be needed for areas still in the growing season
program.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
lingering patchy fog/low stratus will dissipate late this
morning with vfr conditions expected to continue through
tonight. additional patchy fog/low stratus will be possible
again tonight across northwest ohio terminals. calm winds
this morning will eventually become east/northeast at 5-10
knots by mid afternoon before returning light and variable
tonight.

outlook...periods of overnight patchy dense fog may impact taf
sites through the weekend. otherwise, primarily vfr is
expected.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over eastern canada will continue to build south
toward new england. northeast flow will be 10-15 kts and waves
should generally remain around 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. high
pressure will continue south on saturday and remain southeast
of the lake on sunday. this will allow for easterly flow on
saturday before offshore flow returns on sunday. a weak front
will cross the great lakes on monday and allow for a brief
period of weak onshore flow. high pressure will return from the
northeast for tuesday and allow for northeast flow to return.
overall, marine headlines are not expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
627 am edt fri oct 23 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog are possible north of us-30 this morning. some locally
dense fog may be possible in far nw ohio and southern
michigan.

- warm, dry and pleasant weather will continue well into next week
with highs around 70 and lows in the 40s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 am edt fri oct 23 2026

fog is the main forecast concern again this morning. light nne flow
off lake huron supporting widespread dense fog over parts of se mi
and continuing to expand sw with time. models split on exactly how
far sw this fog gets but there is a decent chance our ne counties
could get clipped. a few hrrr and rap runs have also indicated
additional fog development possible around kfwa and points se. low
forecast confidence precludes any proactive headline decisions for
now but will continue to monitor satellite/surface obs closely
through the early morning and issue advisories or sps`s as
necessary. otherwise, incredibly high amplitude/short wavelength
ridge continues to build over the great lakes through the weekend
with strong ava/subsidence maintaining high pressure across the
lower great lakes/northeast conus. surface winds slowly veer to a
more se and eventually s/sw direction tonight through the weekend.
that coupled with some increasing high clouds from upstream
trough/front should limit the fog threat for sat am though some
patchy fog can`t be ruled out for our eastern zones. high temps
likely reach the low 70s again today given sunny skies (outside of
morning fog/stratus) and deep mixing. leaned on the warmer and drier
side of guidance for today which gives afternoon rh values around 35
percent. this is not low enough for a substantive fire wx concern
(especially given very light wind) but imagine finer fuels are
starting to get pretty dry. similar story over the weekend. sunday`s
highs will be a little warmer given increasing sw flow/light waa but
dewpoints also creep up a bit as well. strong ridge holds firm over
the ohio valley this weekend as upstream surface front stalls and
washes out well to our nw. our next chance of rain doesn`t arrive
until next thu and even that is highly questionable as numerous
solutions show this front stalling to our nw as well. real rainfall
chances don`t arrive until around halloween but that is far enough
out that many things could still change. main story is that warm,
dry and pleasant fall weather will continue well into next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 622 am edt fri oct 23 2026

the amplification of a low level ridge axis across the great
lakes and ohio valley will maintain the influence of the
anticyclone across northern indiana through much of the
weekend. easterly flow associated with this high pressure is
allowing stratus/fog to advect westward into far northwest ohio,
but expectation is that fog at ksbn/kfwa will remain more
patchy in nature with anything lower than mvfr vsbys likely
short-lived over the next few hours before patchy fog
dissipates. otherwise vfr conditions and light winds to persist
through this forecast valid period, and persistence of this
pattern suggests more patchy fog is possible tonight, although
confidence of impacts at terminals is on the low side.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 am edt fri oct 23 2026

.key messages...

- dense fog this morning dissipates toward noon.

- there is a chance for another round of dense fog each of the
daybreak periods saturday through monday. any fog that develops is
expected to dissipate by 10 am.

- mild and dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure centered over southern quebec reaches into the great
lakes with light ne wind today and tonight. the wind direction is
the primary driver behind the lifr fog and stratus this morning as
moisture is swept inland from the warm water of lake huron. these
restrictions persist along the terminal corridor until improving
through ifr and mvfr mid to late morning. late october daytime
heating gradually dissipates remaining pockets of clouds in the
lower range of vfr this afternoon.

high pressure drifts slightly toward the atlantic coast tonight
which shifts the wind direction to se into lower mi. there is a
chance for more fog late tonight but with the wind direction
limiting involvement from lake huron and favoring lake erie
influence through sunrise saturday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 326 am edt fri oct 23 2026

discussion...

ridging aloft and at the surface continue to dominate the region and
will provide several more days of quiet weather around the great
lakes. the rex block will remain mostly intact the next couple days
before slowly breaking down as the book end troughs break down in
favor of a more zonal pattern by the middle of next week.

the last few night fog has been the main concern in the forecast as
is usually the case with ridging and flow off the great lakes this
time of year. ample moisture with longer cool nights brings areas of
fog across the state, heavily influenced by wind direct deciding
which locations get the fog and how dense. as the center of the
surface drifts southward from southern quebec toward the east coast
of the conus, the surface flow will change from northeasterly to
southeasterly today as we become positioned on the west side of the
high. the change in flow will lead to the fog likely shifting from
the thumb and saginaw valley down to the state line with the flow
coming off lake erie. will keep the entry level patchy fog mention
in for now and look more at it this afternoon.

the upper level ridge axis will cross the area saturday night. this
will increase the southwesterly flow into the region allowing for a
boost in temps sunday. after slowly moderating upward through the
mid 60s to end the week, sunday could support highs in the 70s for
at least part of the area. looking into next week, a developing low
tracking across canada looks to send a weak backdoor cold front into
the region. the airmass is very dry with ridging across the sw conus
blocking any moisture return, the front will offer some cooler temps
as 850mb temps fall from the upper single digits c, down to just
above 0c behind the front with the next surface ridge.

marine...

high pressure centered over quebec migrates south into new england
today. light easterly winds generally hold aob 10 knots over the
central great lakes, veering southeasterly by this afternoon. winds
then turn southerly over the weekend with a slight uptick in speeds
as the surface ridge maintains control from the east. the stretch of
tranquil and mainly dry conditions largely continues into next week,
although an approaching cold front could briefly stall out over the
straits on sunday. should the active front make it to the northern
waters of lake huron, a few showers would be possible. the decaying
front then works across the rest of the basin sunday night into
monday leading to a northerly wind shift, and perhaps a few
opportunities for a stray shower.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for miz048-049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-083.

lake huron...none.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.