Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
608
fxus61 kcle 031948
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
248 pm est wed dec 3 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure will move to the north of the region and sweep a cold
front through early thursday. high pressure will build in thursday
into friday with another cold front moving through on sunday. high
pressure will build in late sunday into early next week.

&&

.near term /through thursday night/...
an upper level trough will move into the hudson bay region and
deepen into the great lakes late tonight. the trough will sweep
eastward tonight into thursday as a surface low pressure system
moves to the north of the region and drags a cold front through
early thursday morning. as the front moves through, a quick burst of
snow will be possible across much of the eastern lakeshore from
cleveland up through erie, pennsylvania. the band of snow will push
in from the lakeshore and move south from around midnight tonight
through 8am and could have rates as high as an inch per hour. winds
will also gust up to 30 mph ahead of the front which could lead to
low visibilities with characteristics of a snow squall band. this
will primarily be in lake and ashtabula co in ohio and up into erie
and crawford co, pennsylvania. these conditions will be fairly short
lived as the band will push through quickly, though this is where
the majority of the snow accumulation will occur and could impact
morning travel. elsewhere across the region there could be light
accumulations of less than an inch creating slick conditions on
untreated surfaces.

behind the front, high pressure will begin to build in from the west
as lake effect snow showers could continue across far northeastern
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania as flow will be out of the west-
northwest. there will still be some moisture that will allow for
some accumulations, though it is expected to be minor, around an
inch or less. much of the low level moisture will be moving to the
southeast with the front at this point so this will limit the
overall impacts. there will also be wind gusts of 20-30 mph across
the region during the day thursday with the tighter pressure
gradient between the low to the north and the high building in from
the west.

temperatures behind the front will be cold as arctic air rushes into
the region. 850 temperatures will range from -10c in the western
portion of the cwa to -17c out east. this will keep daytime highs
down for thursday in the mid to upper 20s. with the drier air moving
in with high pressure, clouds will also start to clear out with
lighter winds will allow for more cooling overnight. lows will be
down into the singe digits for much of the region and around 10
degrees near the lake shore thursday night. wind chills will be down
around zero with some locations, mainly around the i-75 corridor and
places higher in elevation, near below zero wind chills.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
high pressure continues to build into the region on friday and dry
weather is expected. there will be marginal low level moisture
across the region allowing for some sunshine for most of the day.
temperatures will be quick to bounce back with highs in the upper
20s for friday as the surface high moves off to the east and flow
shifts to be out of the south. on saturday, a shortwave will move
across the region bringing another chance for some snow showers.
this feature isn`t all that impressive and won`t have a lot of
moisture within the profile for areas away from the lakeshore. so
the expectation is there will be some scattered lake effect showers
across northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania, but any
accumulation will be minimal. temperatures saturday will be ever so
slightly warmer than friday, with highs in the low to mid 30s and
overnight lows down into the low 20s.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
low-level ridging will build in on sunday behind the shortwave and
flow will shift to be out of the north by late sunday night.
temperatures will continue to be below average across the region
through the long term. monday looks to be dry as well due to the
ridging, but there is some models showing a system moving into the
region tuesday into the mid-week. though, confidence is low on the
track or strength of the system.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
the main weather feature through the taf period will be a cold front
that crosses from northwest to southeast between ~6-12z thursday.
the area is expected to remain precip free through 0z, though some
mvfr ceilings will be in and out. light snow showers with mvfr vsby
will occur along and ahead of the cold front across most of the area,
with any holes in the ceilings filling back in this evening with mfd,
cak, and yng trying to dip back to an ifr ceiling late this evening
into the overnight. most areas will see light snow showers with
minimally impactful snow accumulations. however, lake enhancement will
lead to heavier snow showers east-southeast of lake erie right along
the front...mainly impacting eri (8-10z) where brief lifr vsby and a
quick inch or two of snow is possible...with some lesser impacts
possible at cle (9-11z) and yng (11-13z), where ifr vsby and a quick
coating to 1" of snow is also possible. relatively minor lake effect
persists into thursday across far northeast oh/northwest pa, with
isolated non-vfr vsby possible within any lingering lake effect snow
showers. ceilings will gradually lift and scatter out from west to
east on thursday as high pressure builds in.

southwest winds 10-18kt with some gusts to 25kt this afternoon will
subside slightly to 8-15kt this evening into tonight. winds will shift
northwest behind the cold front into thursday at 8-15kt, with some
gusts to 25kt possible at cle and eri in the morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings friday night through
saturday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will continue on lake erie into thursday.
southwest winds continue this evening ahead of a cold front,
flipping northwest late tonight into thursday behind the front.
winds are at peak this afternoon in the 20-27kt range, will subside
briefly to 15-20kt tonight, increase again to 20-25kt out of the
northwest right behind the front thursday morning, and then subside
quickly from west to east thursday afternoon and evening as high
pressure builds in. water levels will remain near the critical mark
for safe navigation across the west end early this evening before
rising tonight as winds veer northwesterly. small craft advisories
continue tonight into thursday, then expire from west to east
thursday afternoon and evening.

a cold front crosses the lake late saturday into saturday night,
leading to another period of elevated southwest winds that shift
northwest with the front. this will be the next opportunity for
small craft advisories.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142>144-
162>164.
small craft advisory until 11 am est thursday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est thursday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...23
near term...23
short term...23
long term...23
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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877
fxus63 kiwx 032031
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
331 pm est wed dec 3 2025

.key messages...

- light snow this afternoon into early tonight, most areas less
than 1 inch. some freezing fog/drizzle will be possible this
evening. limited impacts expected.

- cold overnight lows in the single digits across the area
thursday night into friday morning. wind chill temperatures
expected to fall below zero.

- periods of light lake effect showers for areas near lake
michigan beginning saturday night through monday with less
than 1 inch of accumulation and limited impacts.

- another system will move into the region monday night through
wednesday bringing increased chances for snowfall across the
area.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 pm est wed dec 3 2025

a cold frontal boundary draped northeast to southwest in a line
across central mi into northern il and ultimately central mo
will move southeastward across the forecast area this evening
and is already bringing some light snow to the south bend area.
some freezing drizzle was also observed and this chance for
freezing drizzle will continue to expand southward through this
evening into early thursday morning before switching over to all
light snow showers. with models having a hard time resolving
the exact placement of a thin warm air nose inversion across the
lower levels associated with a southwesterly surface flow being
entrained/lifted into the frontal boundary. this has also kept
the stratus deck this afternoon firmly in place and will also
keep the hazy/misty conditions through the evening until the
frontal boundary moves southward allowing for drier air to usher
in behind the front from the north and west.

colder temperatures will also arrive on thursday with some
locations on the southeast shores of lake michigan seeing
slightly warmer temperatures early on than elsewhere due to
being modified over the relatively warmer lake waters with water
temperatures in the 40s currently. this modification will be
reduced as winds slacken through the day on thursday. this also
will decrease the lake effect clouds late in the day. friday
morning lows across the area aside from the lake michigan shore
locations will see single digit lows with locations in northeast
in and far northwest oh potentially seeing subzero single
digits. wind chills in these areas may see -5 to -10 degree wind
chills. the saving grace here in the wind chill department will
be the fact that winds will be light minimizing the impact.
however, this will be still splitting hairs as it will be very
cold and if going outdoors friday morning dress accordingly and
cover any exposed skin to prevent frostbite. also keep your pets
and livestock in mind with the cold temperatures.

the very cold temperatures will moderate fairly quickly and
highs on friday should rebound into the 20s. yes, only a minor
improvement. further improvement expected on saturday with highs
flirting with the freezing mark. another shortwave moves into
the great lakes on sunday with another reinforcing shot of
colder air and northwesterly flow which will bring chances for
some les showers for areas downwind of lake michigan and low
temperatures monday and tuesday morning will once again dip
into the single digits across the area. monday`s highs will only
get into the lower 20s. this cold northwesterly flow will
continue through tuesday morning before a clipper type
disturbance pushes in from the northwest which will help to
provide some isentropic warming and increase chances of snow
showers across the area. this could bring a quick 1 to 2 inches
of snowfall for region with perhaps some les enhancement for
areas near lake michigan which may bring locally higher amounts.
wednesday high temperatures look to once again flirt with the
freezing point and may slightly surpass it in some locations.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1154 am est wed dec 3 2025

cigs will continue to linger around upper end of ifr and lower
end of mvfr as trapped low level moisture remains in place. some
vsby restrictions will continue, but stronger winds at the sfc
are limiting more widespread fog at this point. main challenge
continues to be precip chances with a frontal boundary arriving
this afternoon. while low levels are moist, 12z soundings show
a very large dry layer above this area and below the dgz,
lending to concerns as to how much precip may occur. only precip
reaching the ground at this time is in west central lower mi
where lake enhancement is helping with the dry layer. have opted
for a tempo group at ksbn for now and a prob30 at kfwa for
handling potential light snow as cams are just not overly
impressive with the setup. in the wake of the front, cigs will
improve somewhat to mvfr (due to nw flow and lake effect clouds
at ksbn) and possibly vfr at kfwa further from the lake
influence.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
947
fxus63 kdtx 032020
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 pm est wed dec 3 2025

.key messages...

- temperatures will remain well below normal thursday through the
weekend. the coldest conditions arrive thursday and friday mornings
with wind chill values bottoming out near or below zero.

- arctic front will bring scattered snow showers this afternoon and
evening, with accumulations from a dusting to a half inch. some
patchy freezing drizzle is possible early this evening.

&&

.discussion...

the much advertised arctic cold front is now moving across nrn lower
mi. aggressive mid level height falls preceding the mid level trough
over nrn ontario will continue to drive the front southward, taking
it across se mi during the first half of tonight. radar/satellite
composite indicate mid/upper level moisture advancing into the srn
portions of the area from the southwest. the front is also picking
up some added low level moisture from lake michigan. the moisture
off lake michigan has been quite shallow, resulting in some freezing
drizzle reports to the west. rap soundings suggest moisture depth
increasing to the level for ice nucleation during the late
afternoon. this should mitigate freezing drizzle over se mi. the
exception to this will be across the saginaw valley to perhaps the
northern portions of the flint/owosso areas where mid level moisture
will be a little leaner.

the expected brevity of adequate moisture depth and relatively weak
and shallow low level frontal forcing will keep accumulations with
any late afternoon/evening snow showers to less than a half inch.
post frontal arctic air will arrive overnight within gusty northwest
winds, with model soundings showing 20 knots within the mixed layer.
925mb temps are forecast to plunge to -13 to -15c by thurs morning,
with 850mb temps of -20c across the thumb. this will drop sfc temps
into the teens and low 20s by thurs morning, with minimal rebound in
afternoon temps. the gusty winds will hold wind chill readings in
the single digits through the day.

high pressure will expand across the srn lakes on thursday beneath
respectable large scale subsidence courtesy of mid level
anticyclonic vorticity advection. the subsidence and more shallow
layer of arctic air into the southern lakes will keep inversion
heights low. this and the very dry will will inhibit any lake effect
activity into se mi thursday. the low level flow will back southwest
thurs night into friday within the return flow of the departing sfc
high. low level warm air advection will bring temps into the upper
20s friday afternoon. a solid 20 knots within the shallow mixed
layer will however keep afternoon wind chills in the teens. a weak
short wave impulse forecast to rotate across the northern lakes fri
night into saturday will drive another cold front across se mi
saturday, offering a slight reinforcing shot of cold air by sunday.
continued limited moisture and weak forcing supports nothing more
than low chance type pops with the front.

although there is considerable timing variability, the medium range
model suite suggest at least a couple short wave impulses
originating from the gulf of alaska and tracking along the baroclinic
zone over the great lakes in the tues to wednesday time frame next
week. these features will provide the next chance for more
widespread snowfall.

&&

.marine...

a strong low pressure system well to the north over hudson bay is
pulling a cold front through the great lakes this afternoon and
evening. observations ahead of the front, currently passing through
the straits at press time, are showing gusts up to around 30 knots
in the southwesterly flow. there will be a brief weakening of the
wind field as the front passes before winds quickly ramp back up
from the northwest for tonight into thursday as high pressure ushers
in possibly the coldest arctic airmasses of the season thus far.
guidance has been consistent with showing gusts reaching 30 to 35
knots thursday morning. with upstream observations over superior
slow to ramp up and consistency of the forecast to hold gusts just
below gales, will continue to mention a few gusts to gales and hold
off on a headline. small craft advisories are in effect for the
lake huron shoreline for winds to 30 knots and increased wave
heights. looking ahead, there will be another round of increased
southwesterly winds on friday ahead of the next system passing
through ontario with the cold front swinging through early saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1229 pm est wed dec 3 2025

aviation...

arctic cold front has begun to sink through lower mi early this
afternoon. this front crosses the terminal corridor over the course
the late afternoon-evening bringing a roughly 3-4hr window at each
airport to see light snow showers. only minor accumulations of a
dusting to few tenths of an inch are forecast. ceilings hold in
lower mvfr territory through this evening until post-frontal drier
arctic air becomes established overhead. while this won`t clear
skies, particularly as some moisture off lake michigan is advected
in, ceilings are favored to reach low vfr tonight into thursday.

for dtw...low stratus entrenched through the day. window for
brief snow shower development 23z-02z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lhz421-422-441.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est thursday
for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......drk
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.