Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 082339
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
639 pm est sun nov 8 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers across northwestern pennsylvania tonight into
monday followed by high pressure to begin the week.

2) unsettled weather begins mid week with rounds of precipitation
followed by lake effect showers and cooler temperatures through
the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will move into the james bay region this afternoon and
begin to weaken through the evening. the associated cold front will
move northwest to southeast across the region becoming less defined
as it moves across lake erie. the front itself will be fairly dry
outside of far northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. the
majority of the precipitation that occurs will be lake effect driven
as the lake is still relatively warm compared to the air moving in
behind the cold front. 850mb temperatures across that portion
of the area will drop down to near 0c during the day on monday.
though, most of the moisture will exit to the east by midday
monday as the 925mb ridge begins to build in and dwindle the
lake effect into the evening. generally, not expecting much
accumulation across northwestern pennsylvania, around a couple
of tenths of an inch at most with all of it staying as rain with
the warmer lower levels. a more widespread side effect to this
system, will be the gusty winds into the evening today. winds
will generally be out of the west- southwest ahead of the cold
front at 10-20 mph with gusts around 25- 30 mph and occasionally
up to 30-35 mph. winds will subside this evening.

high pressure will build in across the ohio valley during the day
monday and persist into tuesday before building off the east coast.
dry weather is expected during that time with relatively seasonable
temperatures, if not a few degrees warmer than average.

key message 2...
as high pressure departs to the east on wednesday, low pressure will
begin to deepen to the west across the mid-mississippi valley.
there`s still some discrepancies in the models on the exact track
and magnitude of the low as it enters the southern great lakes
region. though confidence is high that there will be widespread
precipitation beginning late wednesday evening through thursday
night. the low pressure will depart off to the northeast friday into
saturday and persistent north to northwesterly flow will set up
across the region. there will be a much cooler air mass moving in
behind the low as well dropping highs down into the mid to low 40s
and overnight lows into the upper 20s to low 30s. with that,
confidence is increasing in prolonged lake effect precipitation
expected into the weekend. and with the colder air mass moving in,
there is potential for a rain/snow mix this weekend across northeast
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.

it is still unknown how long the lake effect will persist as
models disagree on how quickly the low exits and the oncoming
ridge builds into the region. the ai models of the ecmwf and gfs
are trending to hold onto the lake effect for longer, lasting
into early next weeks. whereas the non-ai version of those
models move the precipitation out quicker. depending on the
solution will determine if there will be any rain/snow mix or if
there will be mainly rain. at this point, confidence is low to
say either way.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions are favored at most terminals through the
majority of the taf period, although low-end vfr ceilings will
increase across ne oh/nw pa as a cold front pushes southeast
across the area tonight. scattered showers are likely at keri
later tonight into early monday morning which may briefly result
in mvfr conditions in lower ceilings and reduced visibilities
if a heavier shower moves over the terminal. otherwise, lake
effect clouds in the 3500 to 5000 ft agl range will persist at
ne oh/nw pa terminals through the end of the taf period,
although ceilings will likely begin lifting from the west by
late monday afternoon.

winds will largely be out of the west at 6 to 12 knots with
gusts to 20 knots through tonight, but flow will most likely
remain elevated at keri with gusts to 25 to 30 knots likely
through the overnight hours. surface winds will shift to the
northwest during the day monday before diminishing to 10 knots
or less at most terminals and becoming more west/southwest
towards 00z tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr likely in rain showers and low ceilings
wednesday night through friday.

&&

.marine...
the small craft advisory for all of the nearshore zones remains in
effect through this evening. winds are currently out of the west-
southwest at 15-25 knots with gusts around 30 knots. waves are
around 5 to 8 feet. they will slowly veer to be more out of the
northwest by this evening and the winds and waves in the zones to
the west of the islands will begin to subside. the advisory will
fall off for those zones tonight at 10pm. to the east of the
islands, winds will continue to be 15-25 knots with waves 5 to 9
feet through midday monday before they begin to subside. the small
craft advisory currently runs through 10am monday for the islands
through avon point and to 3pm for the rest of the eastern zones.
there is potential that waves could be slow to subside monday
afternoon and the small craft will need to be extended for the those
eastern zones. additionally, with the westerly winds, the water
level in the western basin will drop close to the critical mark this
afternoon, though should stay above it. water levels will begin to
rise as the winds shift to be northwesterly.

later in the week, winds and waves will begin to increase again on
tuesday as a low pressure system moves north of the great lakes.
those will subside late tuesday into early wednesday morning with
high pressure building into the ohio valley. low pressure will move
through the ohio valley early thursday with winds shifting from the
east to the north by late thursday night. winds and waves will
increase as they shift to the north and another round of small
craft advisories will be needed for the majority of the lake
lasting into the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 3 pm est monday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 082334
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 pm est sun nov 8 2026

.key messages...

- remaining dry with normal to above normal temperatures through
tuesday.

- trending cooler late wednesday through friday with chances for
mainly rain, late wednesday afternoon into thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1246 pm est sun nov 8 2026

the pattern across the conus starts with a trough across the east
and ridge in the southwest that waves are moving eastward overtop
of. one such trough vacated the area this morning bringing
subsidence into monday. a brief period of warm advection later
monday into monday night is overtaken by a brief period cold
advection as another wave passes by to our north in the northwest
flow. not much surface cooling occurs as the cold front washes out
across the area and it`s a dry frontal passage.

this series of waves has been able to affect the ridge in the west
so that by the time the next wave overtops it, it`s able to dive
farther southward. at the same time, an upper low in eastern canada
will help to push some cold air in behind this wave so that it`ll
likely be rain at the start here later wednesday. then, we`ll have
to watch for the timing of the cold air arrival and if there`s going
to be some low level moisture to tap into. lake effect precipitation
could change to snow thursday night into friday as the cold air
makes it to the surface. 850 mb temperatures get to -4 to -8c
thursday night, which is right around what`s needed to produce lake
effect snow. trajectories will also matter for where the snow bands
end up. that will be out of the area by sunday night or monday as
surface high pressure noses in. those 850 mb temps don`t rise above
freezing until we get to next week. gfs soundings are normally dry
that far out so it`ll be interesting to see how the short range
guidance handles it and this will help to address whether snow is
heavy enough to overcome antecedant warm air. the nbm has about a 20-
30 percent chance of measureable (>0.1") of snow late thu night-fri
am. the nbm has high temperatures rebounding back into the 40s at
least by the weekend and potentially as early as friday meaning the
snow should disappear quickly especially if that dry air remains in
atmospheric column. wind gusts also increase to 25 to 40 mph on
thursday with 25 to 30 mph gusts still possible friday and saturday.

dry air takes over into the first half of next week after the
cool/wetter air moves eastward as mid level ridging/surface high
pressure slide southeastward.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 634 pm est sun nov 8 2026

cool, cyclonic flow over the northern great lakes is supporting
some lake effect clouds over michigan. there is a chance that
some of these clouds could spread southward overnight as low
level flow trajectories veer slightly. however, dry air is a
significant factor this far south and will likely keep clouds
scattered/vfr. wnw winds remain light and back once again by
monday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 9 am est monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 082339
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
639 pm est sun nov 8 2026

.key messages...

-dry and warm early week: temperatures reach well into the 50s
monday through wednesday, with lower 60s likely on tuesday.

-mid-week uncertainty: rain chances increase late wednesday into
thursday, but models disagree on exact locations and coverage.

-cold shift late week: a much colder airmass moves in thursday,
holding highs in the 40s into the weekend. the drop in temperature
over the warm lake waters brings the season`s first solid chance for
lake-effect rain and snow showers late thursday through saturday.

&&

.aviation...

an absolute vorticity center will slide due southward within the
upper level troughing to the tip of the thumb tonight. the
differential vorticity advection will result in an added component
favorable for synoptic lift. moisture remains a limiting factor with
saturation shown to be fairly shallow. the potential for rain
showers is expected to remain greater for areas to the north and
east of mbs. have included a vfr ceiling for the northern taf sites
across the south. height rises with warm advection aloft is expected
to result in a high cloud ceiling on monday.


.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 331 pm est sun nov 8 2026

discussion...

the upcoming 7-day period is defined by a distinct two-phase
evolution of the hemispheric upper-air pattern across north america:
an initial fast, low-amplitude pseudo-zonal/progressive regime
through wednesday, followed by a major amplification into a deep
eastern conus longwave trough late week.

(monday through wednesday) an energetic pacific jet stream will
maintain broad west-northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow across the
central and eastern united states to start the work week. a
shortwave trough passing north across ontario on monday will push a
moisture-starved cold front through lower michigan, followed by
brief shortwave ridging into early wednesday. subsequent pacific-
origin shortwave impulses traversing the northern plains will build
500mb heights aloft, reinforcing strong low-level warm air advection
(waa). as such, tuesday/wednesday could end up a bit warmer than
currently forecast depending on the timing and track of upstream
shortwaves traversing the midwest. excellent ensemble clustering
yields high confidence for tuesday, with expected high temperatures
climbing into the upper 50s to lower 60s supported by 925 mb
temperatures in the upper single digits to near +10c under westerly
low-level flow.

model guidance and ensemble members begin to diverge on the position
and phasing of cyclogenesis developing over the ohio valley on
wednesday and tracking into the central appalachians by thursday. in
fact, current solutions (e.g., 12z canadian/ukmet/icon/euro) keep
the northern and southern stream branches separated longer, keeping
the primary low pressure and bulk of moisture suppressed through the
southeastern united states.

(thursday night through sunday) strong cold air advection (caa)
behind the departing surface system will scour out the mild pacific
airmass on thursday. southeast michigan will reside firmly in the
core of the cyclonic upper-level trough by friday. steepened low-
and mid-level lapse rates combined with thermal contrast (850 mb
temps dropping to -6c to -8c) over the warm great lakes waters will
setup robust lake-effect precipitation structures. this brings the
first legitimate potential for lake-effect rain and snow showers
across the cwa. high temperatures will fall back into the 40s,
slightly below mid-november climatological normals.

marine...

ontario low pressure is on-track to cross into western quebec this
evening, with its cold front draped southwestward. as the front
works across the central great lakes during the overnight hours,
post-frontal gradient winds veer northwesterly. the ensuing cold
advection promotes favorable mixing depths above relatively warm
lake waters, allowing gusts to reach gale-force for the northern
half of lake huron. given that low-level winds should be bound
between 35 and 40 knots, gusts likely hold within a similar range.
higher winds and waves are also expected for all nearshore zones,
supporting the continuation of small craft advisories through
tonight. expect periods of gusts at/above 25 knots and waves in
excess of 4 feet. the pattern quickly shifts and becomes more stable
as high pressure briefly builds in monday, leading to weaker winds
backing southwesterly. troughing returns tuesday as the next clipper
brushes the northern shores of lake superior, with its attendant
cold front passing through and shifting winds toward the wnw. note
that the frontal passage is expected to be mainly dry. some
potential exists for additional small craft advisories. high
pressure then returns tuesday night into wednesday with weaker winds
and lower wave heights.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 4 am est monday for lhz361-362.

small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.