Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
625 am est fri jan 30 2026

.what has changed...
a cold weather advisory has been issued for the entire forecast
area from 7 pm tonight to 11 am saturday for wind chill values
in the -15 to -24f range. there is a hint of an active winter
weather pattern developing for the middle-to-end of next week
that could bring widespread additional snow and travel impacts.

&&

.key messages...
1) very cold weather will persist through sunday night with
nightly air temperatures near or below zero and wind chills of
10 degrees below zero or colder expected. air temperatures may
approach record low values on this morning and saturday morning.
the cold weather will continue to pose a significant risk of
exposure to people and animals in addition to damage to
infrastructure.

2) there are intermittent light snow chances through saturday
night. there may be some marginal travel impacts with any
repetitive shower activity.

3) there are hints at an active winter weather pattern returning
for the middle and end of next week with systems that could
bring additional accumulating snowfall and associated travel
impacts. confidence in snow amounts and impacts remain low at
this time.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
arctic high pressure will continue building south across the
central us today into saturday and allow for cold air to be
reinforced across the region. however, some element of a surface
trough will remain through the eastern great lakes and may allow
for some intermittent clouds and snow showers that will keep
temperatures slightly elevated compared clearing areas. tonight
will be the coldest night of this stretch of cold weather with
low temperatures in clear locations falling below zero to as low
as -12f. this would be record breaking cold for january 30 and
31 and the current records are noted in the climate section
below. there will be very limited wind tonight with the surface
high to the west, but any bit of wind over 4 kts will allow for
wind chills in the -15 to -20f range. therefore, have gone
ahead and issued a cold weather advisory for the entire forecast
area. will fully admit that there will be some forecast zones
that will be impacted by clouds or not have enough of a wind to
force colder wind chill values. however, a large portion of the
area will have wind chills at or below -15f at some point
tonight and opted for the simpler message.

temperatures will remain under 20 degrees through sunday night
with lows on saturday night once again below zero and lows on
sunday night ranging from 5f to -5f across the area. there will
be slightly more elevated wind on saturday night with high
pressure to the southwest and a potent system moving up the east
coast and there could be the need for additional cold weather
advisories.

with 3 additional days of temperatures of 20 degrees or colder
expected, the strain from the cold will continue to increase
daily. this prolonged stretch of cold conditions will result in
increased infrastructure problems, including burst pipes and
dead car batteries. there will be additional stress on people
and animals, as well. folks should continue to limit time
outdoors and wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and
other impacts from cold exposure, including hypothermia. pets
and other animals should have limited time outdoors.

the weather pattern will start to "moderate" on monday with high
pressure shifting east and temperatures returning to the 20s and
less frigid nightly lows in the teens. while any chances for
cold weather advisories with wind chills or below zero
temperatures will disappear with the change in the weather
pattern, there could still be some residual stress on
infrastructure as temperatures will remain below freezing
through the foreseeable future.

key message 2...
as evidenced by intermittent snow showers on thursday, there
still is a trough over the great lakes region along with some
upstream lake effect snow that will allow for some light and
intermittent snow showers to continue through saturday night. a
little bit of dry air will push through this morning with high
pressure building from the northwest and allow for a brief
period of no snow and less clouds. tonight, the upper trough
will slide south through the region and should allow for snow to
flare up again for tonight through saturday night. still believe
that new snow amounts will be low and under one inch but have
some low pops and clouds to characterize that we could continue
to see some additional accumulations and some marginal travel
impacts as snow will be quick to stick to the frozen roadways
across the region.

key message 3...
over the last three runs of the deterministic gfs, there have
been hints of a low pressure system moving through the ohio
valley. this would put the local area on the cold side of the
system and allow for widespread accumulating snowfall. other
global models do not yet have this system or signal, and the
origin of the upper level support of this system in the gfs is
still over the northwest pacific ocean. therefore, there is very
low confidence on this system at this time and potential impacts
in the region.

for late next week into the weekend, there are signals in all of
the global models in another intrusion of colder air into the
region, including another cold low pressure system that would
bring snow to the great lakes region and another surge of frigid
temperatures well below normal. while this cold signal has
remained persistent, there are still many details to iron out
and confidence in the snow and cold are low right now. however,
it reaffirms that this prolonged cold spell will not be breaking
anytime soon.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
at the surface, a high pressure ridge continues to build from
the north-central united states and vicinity through 12z/sat.
our regional surface winds trend variable in direction and
around 5 to 10 knots in magnitude. isolated to broken low-level
clouds with bases mainly near 3.5kft to 5kft agl are expected
through the taf period. greatest low-level cloud coverage
expected this afternoon and early evening due to diurnal
cumulus cloud development.

mainly dry weather and vfr visibility are forecast through the
taf period. however, there are two exceptions:

- areas of mist with mvfr to ifr visibility are expected until
~15z/fri in ne oh and nw pa, including at/near keri, kyng, and
kcak.

- light lake-effect snow with mainly mvfr ceilings/visibility is
possible over and generally south of mainly ice-covered lake
erie after ~08z/sat amidst a nw`erly to n`erly mean low-level
flow of cold air and an uptick in low-level moisture.

outlook...periodic non-vfr due to low clouds and/or snow expected
through this tuesday.

&&

.marine...
wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this
tuesday. primarily n`erly to w`erly winds are forecast on lake
erie through sunday as a ridge builds from the north-central
united states and vicinity. the ridge begins to exit e`ward
sunday night through monday, which will cause w`erly winds to
shift to sw`erly. sw`erly winds veer to w`erly monday night with
the e`ward passage of a very weak cold front. winds should become
variable in direction on tuesday as another ridge builds from
the upper midwest and vicinity. the continued presence of a cold
air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice
cover on lake erie to expand and thicken further through early
next week.

&&

.climate...
record cold low temperatures are possible on friday and saturday.
here are the daily record cold low temperatures for january 30th
and 31st:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019)
01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
saturday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
pa...cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
saturday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 am est fri jan 30 2026

.key messages...

- remaining very cold into sunday with the wind chills right
around negative 15 degrees fahrenheit in northwest ohio.

- times of snow showers today as the main lake effect snow area
shifts west of the forecast area. this band is expected to
return to areas west of us-31 with western berrien and
laporte counties having the best chance to see 2 to 4
additional inches of snow and times of low visibility as a
result.

- temperatures warm into the 20s for most areas sunday and for
all monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 228 am est fri jan 30 2026

a shortwave, within the upper low across southeastern canada and
northeast united states, moves from south-central canada into the
northern plains this morning. this shortwave then dives southeast
towards the southeast conus friday night. this is a rather
complicated setup to model the flow around lake mi and the resultant
convergence and its eventual location. there is some agreement in
models shoving the lake effect band westward, and one can already
see it doing so as of around 3 or 4z thursday evening. at the same
time as the convergence is shoved westward along lake mi, there is a
surface trough with low level moisture, convergence, and lift that
moves southward out of mi and through our area through the day
today. models generally did not handle the inland extent of the snow
last evening well and wouldn`t be surprised with additional sbcape,
an area of low level surface convergence, and low level moisture
that some snow could linger on land today, especially during
the afternoon when that better sbcape forms, as the
hrrr/rap/namnest/nsslwrf seem inclined to retain to some
extent. these snow showers moving through could be enough to
lower visibility, but wind gusts really don`t look to get going
until friday evening at the earliest and mainly in the west as
the gradient picks up.

toward midnight this evening, as the shortwave dives southeastward
like explained earlier, the convergence along the lake mi band will
have a tendency to shift eastward back towards our forecast area.
there is still some issue with pinpointing exactly where it will be
and the disagreement is about a county or two in width. so my pops
try and pad some of this disagreement. looking at nam bufkit
profiles, as the lake effect snow returns, omega appears within the
dgz, but moisture appears on the upper limits or just above the dgz
so that the best moisture would cause a mixture of dendrites
and plates to form as opposed to forming dendrites only and this
would cause a lowering of the slr. inversion heights start at
around 6500 to 7500 but fall throughout the overnight into
saturday morning and delta ts slightly fall from 20 to 25c to
more like 15 to 20c during the overnight. due to these
parameters, an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow will be
possible from southwest berrien into western laporte county.

the area of cold temperatures in the low levels begins moving
southeastward tonight, but it does still bring a chance for wind
chills to drop into the negative teens mainly in nw oh away from
lake effect clouds. the caveat here is that winds go light to
calm and that also reduces confidence in this happening.
therefore, have held off on issuing a cold weather advisory this
time around. it is possible that allen and putnam counties in nw
oh receive an advisory for the cold with van wert and henry
counties not out of the woods. a similar area could also see
cold weather advisories sunday morning before the warm up
arrives.

mid level ridging takes over for saturday spelling suppression
of lift and a reprieve from this wintry weather we`ve been
having. 850 mb temperatures also warm from the low negative
teens to around negative 20 early this morning to around
negative 10 sunday morning and monday morning. this will allow
highs to creep back into the 20s for sunday and monday. lows
also rise from the single digits below and above zero to back
towards the teens by monday night. so a warm up is in store.

the next chance for precipitation appears to be later sunday night
into monday as a low pressure system passes to the north of the
great lakes and an occluded front moves through. some light snow
showers will be possible but it will take some time for a moisture
stream to arrive in the area and the northwest winds indicate its a
loose connection anyway. expect the snow showers to be light.

the ecmwf is already quick to bring the next shortwave towards the
area tuesday morning, whereas the gfs brings it in tuesday afternoon
with the gem in between. this still looks like light snow showers,
but the gfs is also warmer with its later arrival than the ecmwf at
this time. will allow the nbm to handle this period with its
discrepancies during this time.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 615 am est fri jan 30 2026

light lake effect snow will continue to impact both terminals
through the next several hours with brief mvfr conditions
possible. after 15z, increasing northeast flow will shift the
lake effect snow west but forecast soundings and upstream obs
indicate mvfr ceilings could remain through much of the
afternoon. confidence is not high with ceilings likely hovering
right around 3 kft. a period of vfr conditions is expected this
evening but the lake effect band will swing back into ksbn late
tonight with more light snow/mvfr conditions likely.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
650 am est fri jan 30 2026

.key messages...

- a cold weather advisory is in effect through 10 am for areas north
of i-96, as actual temperatures start out 5 to 20 below zero across
most areas.

- lake effect snow showers from lake huron impact the eastern thumb
region tonight into saturday morning with localized 1-3"
accumulations.

- sunshine on sunday leads to temps climbing into the lower 20s,
with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr stratus lingers near the southern metro terminals with clearing
across fnt and mbs to start the day. light and variable winds in
parts of southeast michigan will organize out of the northwest this
afternoon while holding below 10 knots. there will be some moisture
that remains under an inversion and may result in scattered vfr
based cloud development this afternoon. a good amount of dry arctic
airmass will likely limit coverage. low chance for light snow
showers/flurries to develop tonight after 00z that will drift
southward with time. will introduce a prob30 for -shsn for now to
highlight this low potential.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5000 feet today. moderate tonight.

* high for p-type of snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 235 am est fri jan 30 2026

discussion...

clear skies and calm winds north of m-59 have allowed/will allow
temperatures to fall to 5 to 20 below zero. clouds have been slowly
eroding along and south of m-59 as well, which should allow for
temps to continue to lower through sunrise. although winds are
basically calm, we will continue the cold weather advisory, as some
light winds begin to develop shortly after sunrise.

upper level trough/shear axis centered over the western great lakes
will continue to drop south-southeast into tonight. subsidence
behind the shear axis will kick in late tonight into saturday,
allowing for warming at the 850 mb layer, as 850 mb temps rise above
-10 c by saturday evening. however, before this warming occurs,
there does look to be a period of lake effect activity over the
thumb region with the prolong northeast winds developing late this
evening and persisting through saturday. nam soundings look
favorable with pretty good 925 mb lift and supersaturation with
respect to ice in the dgz. planning on calling for localized 1-3"
inches of lake effect snow over the eastern thumb region. expect ice
cover to limit the moisture flux, lowering inversion heights
saturday morning, and movement of the bands to keep accumulations in
check. otherwise, at least some flurries/light snow showers are
probable elsewhere as surface trough/low level convergence tracks
through southern lower michigan tonight. counting on clouds to hold
min temps mainly above zero. however, the early evening may start
out clear south of m-59, which probably will allow temps to crater
at or below zero briefly, before rising slightly when clouds arrive.
even so, do not see wind chills reaching 15 below zero due to light
winds, thus no cold weather advisory plan.

upper level and surface ridging to finish out the weekend will allow
for sunshine and warmer temps, as guidance temps suggest maxes
in the low to possibly mid 20s for sunday.

weakening shortwave trough will bring a good chance of light snow on
monday, as a narrow moisture axis of 850-700 mb specific humidity up
to 2 g/kg (per 00z euro) moves through. lack of surface reflection
and modest forcing suggests an inch or less, as bulk of the model
solutions produce 5 hundreths or less of qpf.

modest warming trend for the work week, supporting highs in the 20s.
depending on the strength of the low tracking into the western great
lakes, could even make a run toward freezing on friday.

marine...

the great lakes remain under broad upper troughing allowing arctic
air to hold across the waters. winds hold from the northwest at 10-
20kts with gusts up to 25kts through this evening. trough influence
keeps lake effect snow showers active though directed at the
canadian waters and southern ontario. some areas of freezing spray
are possible in the ice-free waters however lack of strong winds
prevent any widespread heavy freezing spray from developing. slowly
moderating airmass and the northern edge of plains high pressure
allows for gradually weakening winds falling at or below 20kts for
the weekend. a weak clipper arrives late monday but aside for
scattered light snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts. another
high dropping out of the upper midwest then follows for midweek.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.