Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 112247
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
647 pm edt sat apr 11 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled weather pattern this week will result in multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) cool temperatures today and tonight before above average
temperatures return sunday and persist through the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure and quiet weather conditions today will give way to an
active week of weather as multiple low pressure systems are expected
to traverse the great lakes region. beginning on sunday, a warm
front will lift north, presenting a chance of showers to develop
across the northern tier of counties, although the best support for
showers should be north of the cwa. on monday, the parent low
centered over northern quebec will move a cold front east,
presenting the chance of thunderstorms by monday afternoon as the
atmosphere destabilizes a bit more. this pattern is set to
essentially repeat itself throughout the week, presenting the chance
for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. there is a non-
zero chance for some of the thunderstorms to be strong to severe,
especially by midweek when there should be the strongest synoptic
support and potential for afternoon destabilization. at this point,
spc does not have the area highlighted in any risk for this week,
but will continue to monitor any updates to that in coming forecasts.

with thunderstorms this time of year comes the potential for heavy
rainfall as well. current models suggest pwat values throughout this
week lingering in the 1-1.5" range, but given the progressive nature
of these systems, not expecting any flooding concerns at this point,
even with the antecedent wet conditions from recent rainfall.

key message 2...
temperatures today and tonight will continue to be influenced by the
canadian high pressure that has built over the area, keeping
conditions cool. lows tonight will once again drop into the mid 30s
to low 40s, but this looks to be the last time it gets this cold in
the near future. late tomorrow into monday, a warm front will lift
north which will mark the transition to daily highs in the 70s all
week with overnight lows in the upper 50s into the 60s. as
reference, the average high for this time of year is in the upper
50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions are expected to prevail tonight through sunday
with fair weather skies. scattered to broken ceilings mainly
above 10k feet will increase during this taf period. winds will
shift around as high pressure exits the region. winds will start
out from the east 5 to 10 knots tonight. southerly winds will
increase on sunday 12 to 18 knots with gusts around 25 knots
are expected by the afternoon.

outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are expected in periodic
showers and thunderstorms monday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the region will shift east tonight allowing
winds to develop out of the east/southeast tonight, then out of
the south on sunday. winds increase to 15-25 knots sunday night
as a low level jet moves overhead and may be near small craft
advisory conditions at times into monday. winds tend to remain
generally out of the southwest through mid-week at 10-20 knots
but could be impacted by thunderstorms as a frontal boundary
sets up just north of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...77
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 112334
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
734 pm edt sat apr 11 2026

.key messages...

- 20% to 40% chance of showers tonight along the southern
michigan state line.

- very warm and breezy on sunday. southwesterly wind gusts of 30
mph and highs well into the 70s.

- increasing chance of rain sunday evening (40% chance) through
monday morning (60% chance) but remaining warm.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 149 pm edt sat apr 11 2026

high pressure today gives way to an incoming disturbance currently
over northern missouri. this feature lifts northeast tonight atop a
strong southeast us upper-level ridge resulting in a 20% to 40%
chance of showers tonight along the southern mi border. a special
sounding from the students at valparaiso university late this
morning revealed a strong subsidence inversion and plenty of dry
air; pwat of 0.45". upstream dew points in the mid-40s are better
than our local dew point this hour, thus, improved moisture
advection and forcing will be needed prior to rain reaching the
ground.

warm and breezy sunday, with southwesterly wind gusts of 30
mph, as the pressure gradient tightens against surface high
pressure off the atlantic coast. rain chances increase in the
evening from west to east as another shortwave moves through.
this activity, lingering into monday morning, does not appear to
pose a severe weather risk owing to an absence of instability.
instability improves monday night, with the best colocation of
severe weather ingredients noted over southeast wi. upstream
activity for any severe storms that drift east.

tuesday evening continues to be the primary period of interest for
severe storms. a shortwave trough over the central plains and
associated surface low deepen while an elongated front drapes
across our area. instability in excess of 1,500 j/kg locally along
with 45 knots of shear are favorable indicators that any storms
that fire over illinois can track east into our area. boundary-
parallel flow raises the risk of training thunderstorms producing
heavy rainfall as well.

wet weather lingers into wednesday and thursday until the parent
trough finally shifts east. a strong upper-level ridge persists over
the southeast us keeping temperatures very warm.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 730 pm edt sat apr 11 2026

plenty of mid level clouds overnight keep fog at bay and cigs are
likely high enough to stay in vfr through the period. while some
spotty rain is possible at sbn overnight, it`s not impactful enough
to include in tafs.

southeast winds become more southerly late tonight and early sunday
with southwest winds more likely by the afternoon. this setup of a
warm front moving through overnight often yields llws. however, the
late arrival of a llj with a shortwave passing by to the northwest,
restricts impactful llws until after 12z and likely only at sbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am sunday to 8 am edt monday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 112338
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
738 pm edt sat apr 11 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a rumble of thunder late tonight and sunday morning
precede the beginning of a new warming trend that holds for the bulk
of next week.

- southwest wind gusting in the 30-40 mph range develops sunday
afternoon helping to lift temperatures into the 70s.

- the pattern also becomes active for periods showers and
thunderstorms sunday night through wednesday.

- there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms monday night and
tuesday morning.

- locally heavy rainfall potential also increases during the mid
week period.

&&

.aviation...

surface high pressure will maintain a grip on the region bringing
quiet weather and vfr conditions through approximately 09z tonight.
deep trough and low pressure over the northern plains will then lead
to increasing southwesterly return flow late tonight and sunday.
models support steep surface to midlevel warm front aloft after 09z
yielding rapid thetae advection. greatest convergence from low level
jet forcing is forecasted to impact portions of lake superior the
u.p. and northern lake huron delaying widespread support for ascent
here locally. still expecting scattered activity as lead wing
isentropic ascent brings a potential mainly at mbs and fnt between
09-14z. a period of post warm front stratus (low confidence in
ceiling heights) is expected sunday with mainly dry conditions
during the afternoon. prevailing rain is expected sometime after 00z
4/13

for dtw... there is a very low chance for a brief rumble of elevated
thunder between 09-13z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings below 5000 ft tonight into sunday.

* low for thunderstorms sunday morning, mainly between 09z and 13z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 403 pm edt sat apr 11 2026

discussion...

a postcard early to mid april saturday afternoon is in progress as
high pressure controls conditions across se mi. it brings in a cool
and dry air mass that needs full sun to finish lifting high
temperatures just to near normal values in the lower to mid 50s.
readings struggle to climb out of the 30s near lake huron with a
light onshore wind component setting up the standard cooler near the
lakes exception.

upstream observations across the midwest this afternoon preview
changes that get underway in the great lakes tonight leading to
increasing coverage of rain showers toward sunrise. progression of
larger scale 500 mb structures shifts surface high pressure quickly
to the atlantic coast while the next low pressure center organizes
in the dakotas. this low interacts with the stalled tn valley front
to rapidly accelerate moisture transport and isentropic ascent into
lower mi during the night, although greater coverage and intensity
of the resulting showers/rumble of thunder develops toward the
northern great lakes aligned with the low level jet maximum. model
soundings also show dry air lingering below 850 mb that at least
pushes back against intensity toward the tri cities, and both
intensity and coverage toward metro detroit. near categorical pops
along and north of m-46 are ok for coverage while leaning toward the
lower end of the qpf guidance range, generally less than 0.25 inch
before the pattern shifts north by afternoon.

the rest of sunday sees advancement of the warm sector into lower mi
during the afternoon and evening. the key here is the parent surface
low deepening well north toward the mn arrowhead which helps veer
the wind sw and drive the warm front northward against the cooler
great lakes aggregate. a stray shower or thunderstorm could
originate off the surface to mid level theta-e ridge nearby to the
west and affecting mainly the tri cities as model soundings indicate
some afternoon surface based cape. scattered to broken clouds are
more likely over the rest of se mi making gusty sw wind and warm
temperatures the weather highlight. hi-res model soundings support
href mean gusts potentially in the 30-40 mph range which helps lift
temperatures into the mid and upper 70s, and mainly from the i-69
corridor southward across metro detroit.

for sunday night into monday, there appears to be a considerable mcv
signal in today`s 12z models originating from southern plains
convection tonight and sunday. a nocturnal convective increase is
expected over lower mi as the theta-e ridge crosses the area sunday
night with a nocturnal/low level jet instability boost, however the
forecast leans away from the higher end qpf totals in range of
deterministic solutions. blended guidance offering 0.25" to 0.5"
late sunday night and monday morning looks more reasonable compared
to totals exceeding 1 inch that rely on a mesoscale feature with low
predictability.

the air mass gains an even greater summer feel after showers/storms
decrease again monday afternoon. surface td is projected to touch
the lower 60s while high temperatures range from around 70 tri
cities to mid/upper 70s metro detroit. james bay low pressure has a
cold front extending through upper mi which settles into central
lower mi monday night and which is held in place by central plains
low pressure. the warm and humid air mass over southern lower mi
then becomes capable of greater instability heading into monday
night and tuesday morning, the spc day 3 general thunder/marginal
risk time period tied to an area of slight risk in the midwest. the
outlook carries low predictability due to the changing position of
the surface front and an expected transition from surface based to
elevated convection, both of which are a moving target at this point
in the forecast process.

the central plains low pressure system keeps the mid week period
convectively active as well. this system presents a somewhat rare
day 4 spc outlook for lower mi is it tracks into northern ontario
tuesday and wednesday. the trailing cold front lingers nearby during
the mid week period and also becomes the focus for heavy rainfall
potential. otherwise, daytime temperatures hold in the 70s with no
real air mass change expected until closer to next weekend.

marine...

high pressure center exits lower michigan this evening, heading
toward the eastern great lakes overnight. light and variable winds
near the anticyclone will begin to organize south-southeasterly,
amidst ensuing return flow. gradual gradient constriction causes sub-
10 knot winds to rise tonight, exceeding 20 knots for the northern
half of lake huron by sunrise sunday. expect a more active week of
weather, beginning sunday morning, as showers move in ahead of a
decaying line of nocturnal thunderstorms. locally higher winds and
waves are possible as convection works across the huron basin, but
lower column stability should limit overall gustiness. potential
still exists for brief gusts to gales late sunday into monday as a
65+ knot low-level jet moves through the central great lakes. the
main area of concern will be saginaw bay given funneling southwest
flow, but it is possible that the stronger gusts extend further
south into lake st. clair and western erie, and/or the straits.
several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the week due to a series of troughs, low pressure
systems, and fronts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.