Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
229
fxus61 kcle 031933
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
333 pm edt fri apr 3 2026

.what has changed...
saturday`s slight risk for severe weather has been expanded to
include the entire local area. there`s still concern for
localized flooding due to excessive runoff and/or additional
rises on rivers thanks to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
through saturday, although confidence in the location of the
highest precipitation values and the resulting location of the
greatest flooding risk remains somewhat low at this point.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along a
frontal boundary across the area through tonight. a few storms
may be strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts/large
hail. additional minor flooding is possible due to heavy
rainfall rates.

2) confidence in organized thunderstorms is higher as a cold
front moves across the area saturday afternoon into saturday
night. storms may be strong to severe and produce heavy
rainfall.

3) much cooler temperatures expected sunday through the middle
of next week with a few periods of precipitation possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
scattered showers with a few thunderstorms have developed south
of the lakeshore, however a relatively strong capping inversion
will most likely continue to prevent widespread efficient
thunderstorm growth through the rest of this afternoon.
showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage along a frontal
boundary as better upper level support arrives this evening
before lifting north with the boundary early saturday morning.
if any storms manage to grow tall enough, there is potential for
isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and large hail through
about 10 pm tonight. otherwise, assuming the mid-level dry air
doesn`t throw a wrench into things, heavy rain will be the
primary threat through late tonight with unseasonably high
precipitable water values expected. mean flow will be parallel
to the frontal boundary, but the good news is storm motion will
be progressive which will help mitigate training and the flash
flooding potential. with that being said, antecedent conditions
are conducive for at least minor flooding with 1 and 3 hour ffg
under 2 inches in place across the majority of the area and high
soil moisture values present across the eastern half of the
local area. at this point, it`s difficult to pinpoint the areas
of greatest concern given uncertainty in where the highest qpf
axis will occur tonight.

key message #2:
the local area will remain in the warm sector during the day
saturday, allowing dew points to rise into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by the afternoon. another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop as a cold front moves east into the
area saturday afternoon and crosses the area into saturday
evening. showers and storms will be more organized with this
round given the better upper-level forcing and higher effective
bulk shear values up to 40 knots. the moist southerly flow and
likely clearing early in the day will also result in mlcape
values of 1000-1500 j/kg by mid afternoon. storm mode will likely
be line segments with damaging wind gusts being the primary
threat. however, 0-1 km shear values of around 15 knots, the
higher mlcape values, and lcl heights under 1000 feet will
support at least a low-end chance of a few spinups/tornadoes.
the slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather has been
expanded to include the entire cwa, meaning confidence in
organized/stronger storms has increased a bit. heavy rainfall
will likely accompany the convection and the multiple rounds of
heavy rain in just a couple of days may make it a bit easier for
flooding to occur saturday afternoon/evening. by early sunday
morning, two-day rainfall totals of about .75 to 1.25 inches
will occur across the majority of the area with locally higher
amounts certainly possible where the heaviest rainfall rates
occur. additional rises on area rivers are likely.

key message #3:
a pattern shift with colder temperatures is anticipated behind
saturday`s cold front. highs will be in the 40s and lower 50s
sunday and monday with the coldest highs in the 30s and lower
40s expected on tuesday. periods of lake effect/enhanced showers
are possible through early tuesday and rain may mix with snow at
times, especially sunday night and monday night. temperatures
will trend warmer for mid to late week and a period of
widespread dry weather is expected late tuesday through
wednesday before rain shower chance return on thursday.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
mainly vfr across the taf sites this afternoon, though
anticipate some non-vfr vsby drops by late afternoon/early
evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly
near the us-30 corridor (mfd/cak/yng). a more widespread area of
showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop later this
evening and overnight as a warm front lifts back north, with the
highest confidence for non-vfr impacts at tol/fdy/mfd/cle. a
brief period of mvfr or ifr ceilings may immediately follow the
front early saturday morning, before widespread improvement to
vfr is expected by mid-saturday morning. attention then turns
towards developing showers and thunderstorms along a cold front
saturday afternoon which will need to be included in the next
taf package.

southwest winds remain elevated this afternoon, 12 to 18 knots
with periodic gusts of 25 to 30 knots. winds will gradually
shift towards the west, then north to northeast late this
evening as a trough slides south through the area, stalling near
the us-30 corridor. winds will quickly become south once again
late saturday morning as this boundary lifts back north as a
warm front.

outlook...non-vfr likely on saturday in showers and
thunderstorms along a cold front. some thunderstorms may produce
strong winds. low ceilings may linger through sunday. non-vfr
may return monday and monday night in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.marine...
winds will briefly increase around 15 to 20 knots out of the east
saturday morning ahead of a lifting warm front, though the main
marine concern continues to be on sunday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 22 knots. a small craft advisory will be needed
on sunday, especially across the central and eastern basins. in
addition, strong winds may accompany some of the showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front on saturday. a secondary
cold front will cross the lake monday night into tuesday with
confidence increasing for additional small craft advisories as winds
shift towards the north to northwest, 20 to 22 knots. quieter marine
conditions will return on wednesday as high pressure builds across
the region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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944
fxus63 kiwx 031822
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
222 pm edt fri apr 3 2026

.key messages...

- a flood watch is in effect for a portion of southern michigan
and northern indiana. additional rain and storms tonight
through saturday will worsen any ongoing flooding.

- isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening become
more widespread overnight. a few storms may be severe.

- on saturday, there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
over northwest ohio.

-colder saturday night through at least tuesday with primarily
dry conditions.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 218 pm edt fri apr 3 2026

a modest cold front is draped northeast to southwest from western
lake erie through about lafayette. wind direction (southeast) and
dew points in the 60s are the primary indicators of this front that
serves as the focus for isolated thunderstorms prior to sunset. a
subtle cap is in place north of this boundary, but through time as
the boundary gradually lifts north, the cap lifts permitting these
isolated storms to develop. compared to yesterday, shear is modest
at about 25-35 knots while instability south of the boundary is
plentiful around 1,500 j/kg (mucape). lapse rates and upper level
support are lackluster which limits confidence in isolated
thunderstorms during the remaining daytime hours. forecast soundings
have a slight favor toward hail as the primary hazard, but the
freezing layer remains somewhat elevated and recent storms have
struggled to achieve much depth/height.

tonight, showers and storms will become more widespread as a 45-knot
850mb jet takes shape across eastern il and western in. this will
permit lines or clusters of storms to take shape and hazards will
transition to damaging wind and heavy rain. instability wanes quickly
early thursday morning, limiting the overall duration of any severe
storms. flow becomes boundary-parellel which increases the risk of
prolonged heavy rain beneath training storms. forecast soundings
depict deep cloud tops, minimal 500mb dew point depressions, and
continued pwats near the daily max. recent rainfall of 2 to 4 inches
between the us 30 and us 24 corridors, along with rain last night of
over 1" in southwest mi further tipped the scale in favor of a flood
watch. northwest ohio was considered, but 24-hour rain totals ending
this morning were minimal and the cold front doesn`t arrive there
until after daybreak saturday. nw ohio could be added in the future
if conditions warrant. within the watch, about 1" to perhaps 1.5" of
rain is expected with the greatest totals over michiana.

turning now to the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms saturday. a
cold front will be moving from west to east across our area during
the day. ahead of the front, in northwest ohio, destablization may
occur to permit a strengthening of storms or development of storms
in the warm sector. instability will once again be a limiting factor,
but low-level lapse rates and strong shear could permit damaging
wind gusts. ahead of the front, a few wind gusts near 40 mph are
possible.

sharply colder saturday night through at least tuesday with a break
from seemingly daily thunderstorms. a trough takes shape which
allows a clipper to race through monday, brining a 20% chance of
showers. zonal flow takes shape by wednesday allowing for
temperatures to moderate back toward 60 degrees. the weather pattern
could become active once again late week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 135 pm edt fri apr 3 2026

residual stalled frontal boundary across northeast indiana will
likely serve as a focal point for additional showers and
thunderstorm development this afternoon. low level winds will
back this evening in response to large scale upper trough taking
shape across central conus. this will help shift
thermal/moisture gradient back to the north tonight with
increasing coverage of showers and storms expected after 00z.
the focus later in the night should shift across far northern in
following this frontal progression. an instability gradient will
be sprawled across northern indiana, with greater instability
magnitudes across kfwa vicinity. however, given advective
forcing strength and moisture convergence taking shape, thunder
is possible at both terminals. best chances of thunder at kfwa
should be in the 00z to 06z period, and may be more focused in
the 04z to 08z window at ksbn. a lull in greater precip coverage
is possible later tonight before stronger mid/upper forcing and
frontal forcing shifts in from the west on saturday. in terms of
cigs, some improvement to mvfr cigs expected at ksbn this
afternoon, but should deteriorate again this evening as
increased low level moisture is drawn northward over the
boundary. winds will shift to the south on saturday as warm
front lifts north of terminals, with peak afternoon gusts of 25
to 30 knots possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 11 pm edt /10 pm cdt/ this evening through
saturday afternoon for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...flood watch from 11 pm edt this evening through saturday
afternoon for miz078>080-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
752
fxus63 kdtx 031850
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
250 pm edt fri apr 3 2026

.key messages...

widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms develop late
tonight and continue through most of saturday.

thunderstorms may be strong on saturday, producing wind gusts of
45 to 55 mph, particularly over the eastern half of the cwa, where a
marginal severe risk also exists.

below-normal temperatures return sunday and persist through early
next week. low temperatures in the 20s are likely both monday night
and tuesday night.

&&

.discussion...

a strong, closed 500mb low is tracking through the central/northern
plains this evening and will move through the western great lakes
tomorrow. an exceptional 500 mb height fall center is set to track
through southern minnesota saturday morning and through lake
superior saturday evening. a strong southwest low-level jet (llj) of
50 - 60 knots will track through the western ohio valley and
southeast michigan saturday morning. stellar moisture advection will
take place tonight, with precipitable water (pw) values rising to at
or above 1.3 inches- a record-setting level for early april per the
spc sounding climatology. fortunately, instability will be weak;
mucape will struggle to reach 300 j/kg and will be mostly confined to
near the southern michigan border tonight. furthermore, with mid-
level lapse rates being average to poor, severe hail looks unlikely.
there are no concerns for severe wind tonight due to a steep low-
level inversion and backed surface flow from the southeast.

with the surface low tracking over eastern iowa and into southern
wisconsin tonight, the best forcing looks to reside over western
lower michigan, where the heaviest rainfall totals are expected. the
persistent near-surface inversion will be maintained by a
combination of early-morning rain and thick cloud cover as the
occlusion resides over southeast michigan for most of the day. there
appears to be a short window during the afternoon- depending on the
track and intensity of the low through northern lower
michigan- where eastern areas could enter a muddled warm sector
before the cold front swings through by early evening. strong wind
fields (50 knots at 850 mb) could still support a marginal wind
threat despite weak surface-based instability. we may see convective
showers produce stronger wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, with even
gradient winds potentially approaching 45 mph late in the day. the
eastern half of the cwa stands the best chance for stronger winds due
to the timing of the cold front during peak heating. in fact, spc
even upgraded areas along a line from monroe-detroit-port huron to
slight risk of severe, including 2 percent for tornado. however,
expect the most favorable overlap of buoyancy and wind shear shifting
east into lake erie basin and southwestern ontario by the time peak
heating occurs.

sunday through tuesday: the departure of the low-pressure system
into eastern canada will usher in a period of strong cold-air
advection as flow veers to the northwest. h850 temperatures are
progged to drop significantly, falling into the -6c to -10c range
by sunday morning. this will result in a sharp contrast from
saturday`s warmth, with surface highs struggling to exit the mid-40s
under persistent cyclonic flow and stratocumulus cover. model
consensus, including the ecmwf and canadian, highlights a reinforcing
thermal trough as a secondary shortwave carves into the longwave
trough over the great lakes monday into tuesday. given the low
freezing levels (generally below 1,500 ft agl) and steep lapse rates,
any convective- based showers on monday could produce a rain/snow
mix or even graupel, despite surface temperatures in the 40s. by late
tuesday, a strong 1030+ mb surface high is expected to build into
the region, finally scouring out the lingering cloud cover. low
temperatures in the 20s appear likely for both monday night and
tuesday night.

&&

.marine...

a short-lived ridge of high pressure passes over the great lakes
this evening in between low pressure systems, allowing gusty
westerly winds to subside and veer around to easterly by saturday
morning. the next low tracks from the mid-mississippi valley to
across the straits by saturday evening, bringing widespread showers
and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow, some of which could be
strong to severe in the south. a tightened pressure gradient
produces easterly wind gusts to 30 knots across northern lake huron
late tonight into saturday afternoon. there is potential for brief
gusts to 35 knot gales, mainly between 8am and 2pm, but confidence
is too low for a gale warning at this time. as the system lifts
north of lake huron late saturday, wind will veer around to
southwest and become gusty as cold advection ensues saturday night.
gusts of 25 to 30 kt can be expected through sunday and small craft
advisories will be likely. the gradient relaxes monday causing wind
magnitude to weaken. a series of clipper systems bring cooler air
and chances for snow showers monday and tuesday.

&&

.hydrology...

the influx of high moisture content, characterized by pw values near
1.30 inches, will support high precipitation efficiency across
southeast michigan tonight through saturday evening. a widespread
area of rain, occasionally enhanced by embedded thunderstorms, is
expected to bring basin-average rainfall totals of approximately
0.75 inches to most of the region. however, given the robust low-
level jet and strong moisture convergence, any stronger convective
elements or training of cells could lead to higher localized
amounts. in these areas, rainfall totals have the potential to reach
or exceed 1.5 inches.

fortunately, current 6-hour flash flood guidance (ffg) for the
saginaw valley and the broader cwa remains generally at or above 2.0
inches. this indicates the soil and drainage systems should be able
to absorb the anticipated rainfall without significant flash
flooding. primary impacts will likely be limited to nuisance ponding
or minor flooding in urban or low-lying areas and steady, near-
bankfull rises on local rivers through the remainder of the weekend,
with a low potential to reach flood stage.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 128 pm edt fri apr 3 2026

aviation...

clearing has been able to persist across portions of the forecast
area south of the m 59 and i 96 corridors as the 925mb cold front
has become quasi stationary. forecast data suggests the frontal zone
will push southward with time, helped and facilliated between 21-03z
time window by a marine layer release and evening transition. there
is some lower confidence on when mvfr ceilings will fill back in at
the detroit sites with the cold advection. for now, trusted the
guidance which suggests the late evening hours. easterly flow
strengthens steadily tonight leading to low level inversion, clouds
and saturation. ifr ceilings are antcipated with a potential for
elevated thunderstorms 05-09z. aggressive warm air advection and
return of warm sector is anticipated on saturday with strong low
pressure system over wisconsin. thunderstorms, some of which may be
strong to severe, will again be possible 17-21z saturday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. high tonight.

* moderate for thunderstorms overnight. moderate saturday afternoon
.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......tf
hydrology....sf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.