Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
088
fxus61 kcle 270752
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
352 am edt sat jun 27 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast. still anticipating
a prolonged period of heat and high humidity this upcoming week.

&&

.key messages...
1.) periodic rain showers are expected and isolated thunderstorms
are possible through this early evening.

2.) warmer and more humid weather is expected this sunday through
friday. periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially
on thursday and friday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our
region today before a high pressure ridge aloft begins to build
from the upper midwest and vicinity tonight. at the surface, a
front lingers in vicinity of the oh river valley as multiple
surface lows move generally e`ward along the front through
tonight. simultaneously, the surface portion of the aforementioned
ridge builds slowly into our cwa from the western great lakes
and vicinity. scattered rain showers, steady to heavy at times,
are expected through this afternoon courtesy of moist isentropic
ascent associated with the warm conveyor belt of a primary low-
level low along the aforementioned front. periods of rain
should be more-frequent roughly along and south of u.s. route 30
since that portion of our cwa will be located closer to the
surface front, frontal surface lows, and associated stronger
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. isolated thunderstorms are
possible late this morning into the afternoon since the
isentropic ascent may release weak, yet sufficient and primarily
elevated cape. isolated to scattered showers and any isolated
thunderstorms are expected to end generally from wnw to ese late
this afternoon through mid-evening as the warm conveyor belt
exits generally e`ward and the ridge at the surface and aloft
continues to build from the west. additional rainfall should be
0.10" to 0.25" roughly along and south of u.s. route 30 and
0.10" or less elsewhere in our cwa. widespread dry weather is
then expected through tonight amidst stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge.

intervals of sunshine and sufficient daytime heating should
allow highs to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s late this afternoon.
the coolest highs are expected over and within several miles of
~70f lake erie due to lake breeze development late this morning
through early evening. overnight lows should reach the upper
50`s to upper 60`s around daybreak sunday.

key message 2...
a warming trend and increase in humidity are expected this
sunday through friday as the mid/upper-level ridge axis shifts
from near the ms valley to near the eastern great lakes and the
atlantic coast of the fl peninsula. this will cause our region
to become located within a synoptic-scale low-level warm/moist
air advection regime from the gulf as we become located along
the western flank of the surface portion of the ridge, especially
starting on monday. daytime highs should reach the mid 70`s to
mid 80`s on sunday. on monday, lows mainly in the 60`s around
daybreak should be followed by late afternoon highs mainly in
the mid 80`s to mid 90`s. the coolest highs on sunday and monday
are expected over and within several miles of lake erie due to
lake breeze development each late morning through early evening.
maximum heat indices are forecast to be near 100f in nw oh,
inland from lake erie, on monday. forecast trends will be
monitored for the possible and eventual need for a heat
advisory.

tuesday through friday should feature morning lows mainly in the
70`s around daybreak and late afternoon highs mainly in the
upper 80`s to upper 90`s. daily maximum heat indices may reach
the roughly 100f to 105f range in portions of our cwa. stay
tuned to forecast updates and possible hot weather alerts.
however, the thermodynamic environment and synoptic-scale mslp
gradient should support lake erie lake breeze development each
late morning through early evening, especially along and near
the shore from northeastern cuyahoga county through erie county,
pa. thus, mesoscale refinements to the daily high temperature
and maximum heat index forecast are likely in the coming days.

current odds favor dry weather on sunday through wednesday
night as relatively-strong and stabilizing subsidence associated
with the ridge continues to impact our region. occasional
showers and thunderstorms are possible this thursday through
friday as subtle shortwave disturbances ripple generally
eastward through the ridge aloft, are accompanied by surface
trough axes, and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the
surface trough axes release at least weak to moderate
instability. some storms may be strong to severe as the
aforementioned shortwave disturbances interact with the ridge
aloft and tighten the isobaric height gradient aloft, which in
turn should yield at least moderate deep-layer bulk shear.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
shower activity has largely struggled over northern ohio and
northwest pa early this morning with just some spotty showers
with minimal impacts across the airspace. some heftier rain
showers may enter from the south later this morning and impact
kmfd and kcak with some non-vfr conditions but confidence is low
in visibility dropping to non-vfr levels. the larger aviation
impact will be some non-vfr ceilings spreading north into the
airspace overnight and into the daytime hours on saturday. most
terminals will see a drop to mvfr and a couple lucky spots could
get some brief ifr ceilings. kcle and keri will largely remain
vfr with dry, northeast flow trying to keep any issues away from
these terminals. rain will continue to focus south of the area
later today and will opt for a dry taf for this afternoon and
beyond. ceilings will improve to vfr and light northeast winds
will continue into sunday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in fog/mist on sunday morning.

&&

.marine...
with a trough over the ohio valley, northeast flow will continue
over lake erie. winds may pick up into the 10 to 15 kt range this
afternoon as the pressure gradient of the trough tightens just a
bit. otherwise, high pressure will build from the north, starting
tonight, and become centered across the eastern great lakes for
sunday. this will allow for light northeast flow to continue through
the weekend. the high will shift east on monday and allow a warm
front to cross the lake. this will allow for southeast winds to take
over the lake on monday night. winds will shift to the southwest for
tuesday and wednesday in the warm sector of the warm front with
winds averaging 10 kts. there are no marine headlines expected at
this time.

&&

.climate...
hotter and more humid weather is expected this monday through friday.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
371
fxus63 kiwx 270611
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
211 am edt sat jun 27 2026

.key messages...

- 20% to 30% chance of isolated showers today.

- dangerous heat and humidity is starting monday as heat
indices climb above 100 degrees each afternoon with little
cooling at night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 207 am edt sat jun 27 2026

isolated showers may dot southern and eastern reaches of the
forecast area today. a stationary front remains draped across
central indiana and weak impulses continue to pass by aloft.
overall, plenty of dry time today with decreasing clouds late
in the day. enjoy today`s highs in the 70s because the heat is
on beginning with highs in the low- to-mid 80s sunday.

as written extensively in this space these last few days, becoming
very hot and humid for the week ahead. a 594dm ridge amplifies over
the southern mississippi valley, eventually translating east through
time. high confidence in highs in the 90s and heat indicies near 100
degrees monday through at least thursday/friday. before
breaking down late week, the ridge appears strongest tuesday
through thursday, representing our hottest days of the week.
i`ve tested the waters for heat headlines this morning, but the
appetite wasn`t there from neighboring offices. primarily dry
during this period, but as the week progresses we`ll monitor for
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 1227 am edt sat jun 27 2026

a stalled frontal boundary across central indiana will continue
to permit light rain showers to fester early this morning. mvfr
to ifr ceilings are noted from kfwa south. forecast guidance
favors mvfr to fuel-alternate ceilings through the morning
hours before the subsidence inversion eases. steady east wind
today.

at ksbn, dry air appears to prevail resulting in medium-high
confidence of vfr conditions prevailing. toward sunrise, we`ll
monitor for any mvfr ceilings that may slip in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
048
fxus63 kdtx 270713
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
313 am edt sat jun 27 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures return to near normal this weekend with dry weather.

- hot and humid conditions arrive monday with highs in the low-mid
90s and heat indices nearing 100 f.

- hottest conditions expected tuesday through thursday with potential
for highs to reach 100 degrees and a heat index in excess of 105
degrees.

- low thunderstorm chances for most of the week, then increasing
friday into the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...

1020 mb surface high is located over northern mi this morning with
its southern flank maintaining light east flow across all of lower
michigan. sharp transition from clear to overcast skies noted along a
line from ann arbor-detroit marks the 850-700mb deformation axis
where southern stream moisture transport clashes with the dry
canadian airmass to the north. expectation is for this moisture to
shear out through the day as the ohio valley wave drifts east, but
will maintain at least some sky cover across se michigan with
diurnal cu development expected again this afternoon. final day of
cooler temperatures with highs right around 80 degrees ahead of the
anomalous ridge that begins to build sunday.

mid level height rises really begin to ramp up sunday afternoon as
an upper low settles into the intermountain west. high temperatures
sunday reflect the start of the warming trend, breaking into the
low-mid 80s which has only happened a handful of times over the past
two weeks. diffuse low level wind field organizes out of the
southwest, kicking off a period of strong warm advection sunday night
that continues through the first half of the work week. moisture
that has been pooling over the ohio valley and mid-mississippi valley
regions gets recycled northeast toward the great lakes in the
process, triggering low shower/storm chances monday with the arrival
of the higher theta-e airmass and a weak perturbation rounding the
ridge. widespread convection through the first half of the week will
then be strongly limited by lower tropospheric subsidence (850-
600mb layer) and increasing lcl heights. this will be a direct result
of the strong ~594-597 dam ridge that builds across eastern conus
sunday-monday, keeping the bulk of synoptic waves/nocturnal low level
jet enhancement well to our west. that being said, cannot completely
discount the role of mesoscale features in this type of pattern
which could lead to a more localized convective response, just with
low predictability this far out.

main story of the forecast is the extreme heat potential, which will
span most of next week. heat and humidity arrive monday with
temperatures climbing into the 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s. this
brings the heat index near to possibly above 100 degrees. one caveat
monday is the low pop/cloud potential, but this becomes less of a
concern by mid-week as the column becomes drier and more stable. max
mid-level heights expected overhead tuesday-thursday, which will be
the hottest days where highs of 100 degrees are in play. over half
of eps/cmce members forecast high temperatures wednesday and thursday
of 100+ degrees at dtw. the last time any of the three climate sites
(detroit, flint, saginaw) broke into the 100s was in 2012, for
reference. prolonged stretch of heat indices well above 100 degrees
certainly exceeds entry level heat headlines, and ventures into
extreme heat territory. impacts will be exacerbated by lack of
cooling overnight as lows only drop into the mid 70s.

some relief from the heat looks to arrive friday into the holiday
weekend as the ridge begins to flatten/weaken slightly, but with
highs still above normal. break down in the height field will also
open up se michigan for easier erosion of the cap and more
convective activity late week.

&&

.marine...

high pressure will hold over the region through the weekend
resulting in light northeasterly winds under 10 knots through
sunday. a warm front will lift north through the region on monday
opening the door for very warm air to move into the region for next
week. there will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
northern lake huron monday as the front lifts north. winds will turn
southeasterly on monday with gusts increasing to around 20 knots.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 120 am edt sat jun 27 2026

aviation...

a stalled frontal boundary over the ohio valley maintains sct/bkn
mid-cloud (>9kft) through the rest of the night around the detroit
terminals with cloud in the north generally confined to cirrus.
patchy fog/mist remains possible late tonight near mbs as light winds
off the saginaw bay provide just enough near surface moisture.
otherwise, vfr conditions and 10kt or less ne wind in place for
saturday as the region is governed by high pressure over the northern
great lakes.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast through saturday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......drk
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.