Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
746
fxus61 kcle 161140
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 am edt sun aug 16 2026

.what has changed...
the risk for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall is
decreasing, due to highest rainfall amount displaced just south
of our forecast area. therefore, the flood watch has been
cancelled. heavy rain will still likely accompany scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and could pose an isolated,
localized flash flood risk.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this
evening with heavy rain potentially leading to localized
flooding. a few stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

2) a line of showers and thunderstorms will move southeast
across the area on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
latest satellite imagery shows an mcv located over the central
portion of our forecast area. scattered rain showers accompany
this mcv and will continue through the this morning before the
mcv departs to the east by sunrise. very limited instability
should prevent additional heavy rain and subsequent flash flood
threat through most of this morning. therefore, the flood watch
has been cancelled a few hours early.

another shortwave is working its way across northern illinois
and will become the focus for additional convective development
this afternoon. most hi-res models are keying in convection
beginning to develop near the i-75 corridor early this
afternoon, and growing upscale as it moves eastward across the
rest of the area. sufficient build-up of moderate instability
and the presence of deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should
support a marginal severe weather threat. strong gusty winds
will be the primary severe weather hazard.

an extremely humid airmass characterized by pwat in the 2-2.25"
range and surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will support
efficient, heavy rainfall within any thunderstorm that traverses
the area. progressive nature of convection this afternoon should
prevent a widespread flooding issue, but particularly vulnerable
areas (such as urban areas, or locations that have received
excessive rainfall in the past few days) could pose a localized
flash flood risk.

isolated to scattered rain showers will linger sunday night
into monday morning across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania.

key message 2...
a cold front will move southeastward across the area on
wednesday, with a line of showers thunderstorms moving impacting
the region. confidence continues to increase in area/timing,
with pops increasing to 60-80% areawide, particularly during the
afternoon hours. severe weather is a possibility, though its
questionable how much instability there will be to work with.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
patchy fog and low stratus are present across the area and
currently have a mixed bag of flight conditions early this
morning. conditions should improve throughout the morning,
although patchy mvfr/ifr may persist through the remainder of
the morning. the next round of showers and storms will push
east into the vicinity of ktol/kfdy by mid to late morning
before reaching eastern terminals by late afternoon. there is
still uncertainty in the exact timing and placement of
showers/storms so have prevailing showers with prob30 groups for
thunderstorms for the time being. any afternoon/evening showers
and storms could produce non-vfr ceilings and visibilities. low
clouds and lake-enhanced rain showers will most likely develop
at eastern terminals behind the precip this evening, which would
produce non-vfr conditions.

winds will shift to the southwest this morning into this
afternoon with sustained winds increasing to about 10 knots this
afternoon. periodic gusts to 20 knots are possible this
afternoon into early this evening, primarily at ktol/kfdy/kmfd.
wind gusts may be variable and higher in thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening. winds will become westerly after
00z before shifting to the northwest towards the end of the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and lower
ceilings across ne oh and nw pa through early monday morning.
non-vfr possible wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
winds on lake erie will shift to the southwest and increase to
10 to 15 knots during the day today before becoming
northwesterly behind a cold front by early monday morning. flow
briefly becomes light and variable late monday into early
tuesday and expect southwest flow between 10 and 15 knots
tuesday evening into early wednesday morning. winds will then
shift to the northwest and diminish behind another cold front
during the day wednesday. light onshore flow is expected for
much of thursday. at this point, marine headlines are not
expected over the next few days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
675
fxus63 kiwx 161030
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 am edt sun aug 16 2026

.key messages...

- thunderstorms are likely this morning. the severe risk is very
low but isolated gusty winds and brief heavy rain are
possible. a flood watch remains in effect until 11am edt for
areas south of us-30.

- additional storms are possible this afternoon and evening but
coverage will remain low. a few strong storms capable of gusty
winds may be possible south of us-24.

- monday and tuesday will be dry but additional rain is expected
tuesday night into wednesday. the risk for heavy rain and
severe weather currently appears low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 am edt sun aug 16 2026

latest water vapor imagery shows one more potent mcv ejecting out of
iowa early this morning. regional radar mosaic currently shows a
bowing segment but mesoanalysis indicates very limited shear and
therefore unlikely to pose a severe risk. once again our current
environment is very stable but another round of strengthening
nocturnal llj will advect higher theta-e air back into the area early
this morning. this should support at least some elevated convection
roughly 08-15z this morning. convection will likely tend to outpace
better surface-based instability but there`s at least some low
chances that a slightly later passage could allow some diurnal
contribution in the 14-17z timeframe that would yield a gusty wind
threat for our far e/ne counties. this is suggested by some runs of
the hrrr but still think it will be difficult to get sufficient
instability that far ne that early to support severe storms. as for
the hydro threat...best overall rain chances look to be in our
northern cwa and storms will likely be much more progressive and
scattered than in recent days due to the current synoptic setup. the
threat of true "heavy" rain is very low but susceptibility to even
moderate rain in our southern cwa is still high. given this and some
lingering uncertainty on where exactly storms track later this
morning plan to just let the existing flood watch ride for now.

attention this afternoon and evening then turns to very broad/
diffuse cold frontal passage. ample low level moisture and some
steepening midlevel lapse rates generate over 2000 j/kg of sbcape in
our southern zones this afternoon and 25-30kts of deep-layer shear
would suggest a threat for organized convection. the problem is the
forcing is just very weak. we actually have some shortwave ridging
in the wake of this morning mcv that persists well into the evening
and low level convergence is virtually nil. hi-res cam`s
subsequently show very isolated convection this afternoon and
evening. can`t entirely rule out a stray strong storm in our
south given the instability and shear parameters but risk
appears very low at this point.

finally we return to quiet weather for monday and tuesday. the next
chance of storms arrives tue night. a deep upper low is forecast to
cross northern ontario with modest height falls extending into the
great lakes region. associated fast midlevel flow yields some
impressive shear but instability will be in doubt for our area.
general wnw flow ahead of the front limits theta-e recovery and
nighttime arrival limits the diurnal contribution. an earlier
arrival could yield a threat for stronger storms in our far nw tue
evening but chances for that currently appear low. this front will
be slow moving and rain chances extend through the day wed but
lackluster midlevel lapse rates and low level moisture return
suggest a low risk for both severe weather and heavy rain given the
current timing.

forecast confidence isn`t high for the end of the week given some
fairly large model differences but there is a general lean toward
cooler, drier, and more tranquil weather.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 630 am edt sun aug 16 2026

scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue through the morning as an mcv crosses the area. thunder
coverage is quite limited given lack of instability so will
leave thunder out of the taf`s for now. models continue to
struggle with ceiling heights this morning but starting to see
some 1 kft ceilings observed near ksbn so will hold low-end mvfr
there through the morning with some ifr not out of the question.
for kfwa...better chance for hovering right around 3 kft through
the morning. both sites trend to vfr during the afternoon. a few
additional showers/storms are possible at kfwa as a weak cold
front passes but confidence in coverage is too low to mention in
the taf`s at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning for
inz012-013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
oh...flood watch until 11 am edt this morning for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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756
fxus63 kdtx 160845
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
445 am edt sun aug 16 2026

.key messages...

- scattered shower and thunderstorm chances this morning into early
evening mainly along/south of i-69. torrential rainfall and minor
localized flooding possible with any storm.

- additional scattered shower chances mainly north of i-69,
particularly in the thumb, this evening-early tonight as a cold
front crosses.

- dry, seasonably average conditions for the early week period.

- shower and storm chances return tuesday night into wednesday with
the arrival of the next cold front.

&&

.aviation...

low clouds (ifr/mvfr) and fog (with a brief dip to lifr possible)
around the start of the taf period will be replaced by slightly
higher ceilings as showers track across the southern tafs during the
mid to late morning hours. regeneration of showers is expected for
the afternoon and early evening hours a cold front moves through. a
few embedded thunderstorms are also likely, but confidence remains
too low to include at specific taf sites. very light southerly winds
to start the day veer to the west for the mid afternoon hours,
generally topping out around 10 knots sustained. winds will then
shift to the northwest behind the cold front late this evening, with
low clouds at least partially clearing from northwest to southeast
tonight.

d21/dtw convection...low chance for thundestorms this morning
through early this evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less today, medium this evening, low
overnight.

* low for thunderstorms today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 am edt sun aug 16 2026

discussion...

ongoing convection across northern il/in is tied to the arrival of a
central plains shortwave that will slide along mi`s southern border
over the rest of the morning/early afternoon. while the majority of
convection is again expected south of the state where the stalled
frontal boundary resides, reinforcing moisture and modest mid-level
ascent supports scattered am shower chances over the southern half
of se mi. thunder chances during the morning activity will be quite
limited due to the lack of available instability (mucape <500j/kg).
this gradually changes by afternoon however as ongoing moisture
advection pushes surface dewpoints into the the lower 70s allowing
diurnal heating to generate mlcape between 1000-1500j/kg. increasing
instability combined with the modest synoptic support from the
passing shortwave supports scattered convective showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon, mainly along/south of i-69
given the location of the wave. severe storms are unlikely as weak
column winds keep shear sub-30kts in addition to abysmal mid-level
lapse aob 6 c/km. pwats in excess of 2" and warm cloud layers near
15kft however do offer the threat of torrential rainfall. that said,
the progressive nature of any convection plus the dry summer thus
far should keep flooding more localized to the typical floodprone
urban/low lying areas. storm chances wane by early evening in the
south as the shortwave departs east; though the arrival of a cold
front dropping out of northern mi shifts scattered shower chances
towards the northern half of se mi, particularly the thumb, this
evening-early tonight. late arrival in the diurnal window likely
keeps thunder more isolated.

passage of the aforementioned tonight ushers in a more seasonably
average airmass as dewpoints and 850mb temps return to around 60f
and lower teens c, respectively. as such, pleasant early week in
store with highs in the lower to mid 80s monday-tuesday and sunnier
skies.

broad hudson bay upper trough sends another cold front into the
great lakes midweek. currently, frontal timing and associated
preceding showers favored to work across se mi late tuesday night-
wednesday. cooler air follows to close out the work week with 850mb
temps hovering around 10c keeping highs slightly below normal by the
latter part of august standards.

marine...

as low pressure tracks north of the area it will push a cold front
through the central great lakes region later today and tonight.
ahead of the front, south winds prevail for much of the day around
10 to 20 knots. behind the cold front, northwest winds fill in and
increase across lake huron, and eventually down through lake st.
clair and the michigan waters of lake erie late tonight. the
strongest winds are expected across lake huron, especially the open
waters with 20-25 knot winds expected late sunday evening into early
monday morning. thus, will need to keep an eye on the wave forecast
and the potential for small craft advisories for nearshore waters
across the tip of the thumb of michigan. showers and thunderstorms
will be possible as this system moves through today through tonight.
the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the cold front later
this evening.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...kdk
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.