Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
255
fxus61 kcle 032324
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 pm edt sat oct 3 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly seasonable and dry weather is expected through next
week. frost headlines are possible monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
another cold front will move east through the area on sunday
which may bring a brief window for rain chances sunday evening
and overnight, mainly across far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. total rainfall amounts are expected to be light
and less than a tenth of an inch. behind this front, an area of
canadian high pressure will build south into the region,
ushering in cooler and drier air. will continue to watch
temperature trends for frost potential monday night into tuesday
with high pressure directly overhead, though guidance has
leveled off somewhat in terms of low temperature magnitude
(upper 30s), which could limit the overall frost threat.
meanwhile, the frost potential appears to be decreasing for
tuesday night into wednesday morning as guidance is favoring a
faster onset of warm air advection from the west.

another weak cold front may cross the area by the end of the week,
though the latest guidance suggests a mainly dry frontal
passage with ample mid-level dry air in place.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
vfr. clear tonight, few cumulus fl040 sunday with w/sw winds
less than 10kts.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected into early next week.

&&

.marine...
marine conditions will gradually improve into sunday as
northeast winds this evening shift towards the south to
southwest overnight into sunday, around 10 knots. another cold
front will cross the lake sunday night into monday, ushering in
north to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots, and another round of
small craft advisories will be needed, mainly across the central
and eastern basins. winds will become light and variable on
tuesday with high pressure overhead, before increasing out of
the southwest on wednesday ahead of a cold front, 15 to 20
knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
721
fxus63 kiwx 032311
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
711 pm edt sat oct 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions are expected for the next several days.

- sunday, notable temperature difference northwest to southeast
as a cold front moves through. highs will range from the
mid-60s to mid-70s, respectively.

- cold tuesday morning with lows in the 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 215 pm edt sat oct 3 2026

high pressure over lake huron is drifting east in response to an
incoming upper-level trough. plenty of sunshine this afternoon with
highs in the 60s thanks to east-southeasterly flow from the departing
high pressure. tonight, clouds from the aformentioned trough will
generally pass north of the area, but perhaps some high clouds
drifting across the southern michigan state line. the trough axis
passes by sunday morning with the trailing surface cold front to
follow. this results in a 8 to 10 degree temperature difference in
the afternoon due to northwesterly flow developing off lake
michigan. downwind locations will see highs only in the 60s, while
those along and south of us 24 will see mid-70s. an absence of deep
moisture yields a rain-free frontal passage.

during this tranquil period of weather, our primary talking point
remains tuesday morning low temperatures in the 30s as high pressure
becomes centered overhead. frost remains a possibility, especially
along the southern michigan state line. otherwise, warming
thereafter with high pressure moving east once more and rising upper-
level heights and dry conditions.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 711 pm edt sat oct 3 2026

no major flight concerns expected despite the passage of a cold
front sunday morning. winds will eventually shift from the
southeast to the southwest and eventually northwest by the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
488
fxus63 kdtx 032358
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
758 pm edt sat oct 3 2026

.key messages...

- cool tonight with lows in the lower 40s to upper 30s. narrow band
of light showers possible late tonight into sunday morning mainly
north of i-69.

- seasonable highs sunday near 70 degrees.

- below normal temperatures arrive monday with highs only near 60
and lows falling into the 30s. chance for frost is possible monday
night particularly over the saginaw valley/thumb.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through this evening with clear skies
and light south winds while surface high pressure moves into the new
england region. a low pressure system will quickly follow moving
across the upper midwest at this time with notable increase in mid to
high clouds and rainfall. some of this rainfall along the tail end
may reach mbs and fnt between 10z to 12z tomorrow morning. only
expect light rain if it does occur and ceilings anticipated to remain
vfr. largely dry cold front passage through southeast michigan on
sunday will bring a west wind shift and support lower ceilings to
around 5kft during the day.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast this period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 256 pm edt sat oct 3 2026

discussion...

high pressure centered over northern lower mi has maintained a
pleasant fall day across se mi. east-northeast winds have wrapped
enough lake moisture around the periphery of core subsidence to
support a healthy coverage of diurnal cumulus over the
southern/eastern portions of the area with sunny skies holding over
the western/northern portions. clouds fade early this evening with
sunset leading to another cool night with lows falling into the
lower 40s.

a shortwave trough currently working across the upper midwest tracks
into the north-central great lakes late tonight as high pressure is
shunted east. moisture transport isn`t particularly strong due to
weak lower level winds (sub 40kts below 700mb), however is enough to
draw in ribbon of modest theta-e from the midwest along the lead
edge of the mid-level wave/pv anomaly. isentropic ascent is also
confined along this lead edge resulting in a narrow band of
potential showers sliding across between ~09-13z. owing to closer
proximity to the shortwave and cold pool, said shower chances
essentially confined north of i-69. surface cold front lags, not
crossing until sunday evening, with minimal fanfare outside a low
chance for an isolated shower/drizzle.

some of the coolest air of the season thus far follows as 850mb
temps fall to 1-2c by sunday night dropping lows to the low 40s-
upper 30s. thermal troughing holds over the central great lakes
through monday as 850mb temps nudge down further to around 0c
limiting diurnal recovery to highs near 60. building surface high
pressure late day monday promotes clearing skies and near calm winds
by monday night supporting se mi`s first shot at frost, particularly
across the saginaw valley/thumb, as lows approach the mid 30s. more
seasonably average temperatures return for the midweek period as
hudson bay upper troughing shifts towards labrador.

marine...

high pressure over the central and eastern great lakes region will
gradually move over the northeast through the end of the weekend as
low pressure tracks east across southern ontario, remaining north of
lake superior. while this low is progged to remain well north of the
area, it is expected to intensify as it moves east towards the james
bay area, resulting in a large-scale uptick in winds over the
region. a cold front extending south from the low pressure system
will also usher in a wind shift on sunday. tonight into sunday
morning, south winds prevail across lake huron. winds then become
westerly mid-day sunday and gradually will shift and come out of the
northwest sunday afternoon and evening. generally speaking sunday
through monday, winds of 25 to 30 knots are expected over lake
huron, with the strongest winds expected across the northern third.
sunday evening through monday morning will see the best window of
potential for winds around or in excess of 30 knots over the open
waters of lake huron. this is especially so up across the far
northern third of the lake. will continue to monitor trends in the
forecast and probabilistic data on low-end gale potential for sunday
night into monday morning. right now probability fields are around
20% for seeing low-end gales around 34 knots across far northern
lake huron.

further south on lake st. clair and the nearshore waters of lake
erie, similar wind directions and wind shifts will be observed, but
they will be delayed in time compared to over lake huron. winds will
also increase sunday night into monday; however, they will not be as
strong that far south.

winds gradually weaken late monday into tuesday as a transient area
of high pressure briefly moves through the region. we then see
another system track north of the area, but will bring another
uptick in winds for mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.