Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
824
fxus61 kcle 240637
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
237 am edt fri apr 24 2026

.what has changed...
some minor timing adjustments for the convection today, and a slight
increase in low end pop coverage prior to the main line with the
cold front late this evening into tonight.

&&

.key messages...
1) a lingering stationary front followed by a cold front brings shower
and storm chances to the cwa later today and into tonight.

2) high pressure this weekend followed by another low pressure
system/cold front monday night through tuesday which brings the next
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a stationary front will linger over far ne oh/nw pa today as low
pressure and a cold front move in from the northwest. warm sector
dewpoints in the 50s today with temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s areawide equates to marginal instability but still enough
for a convective threat today. impeding the threat to some degree
will be a decaying low level jet as the system approaches and sharp
upper level ridging. for the afternoon hours, there will be a
modest amount of elevated cape along with the troughing at the
surface which could result in some afternoon convection, but the
main limiting factor is the amount of dry air in the column rising
air would have to overcome. this is a low threat overall through the
afternoon hours, but not zero, and have a large coverage of slight
chance pops during this time frame. the main batch of convection
will be later in the evening when the flow aloft abruptly turns
southwesterly and some upper level support finally comes into the
mix. however, as mentioned previously, the lower level dynamics will
be phasing out, and only a sliver of the low level jet will remain,
around 30-35kts. with just enough 0-6km bulk shear around 25-30kts
and column rh increasing, some organized convection with a wind
threat is possible. this wind threat may be most likely to occur at
the onset later this evening as inverted v soundings will dominate
the boundary layer structure prior to the saturating in
precipitation. some pops linger into saturday without a thunder
threat with the exiting of the low pressure system. temperatures
fall off 10-20 degrees from friday to saturday.

key message 2...
high pressure builds through the weekend with the cooler
temperatures, rebounding again monday ahead of the next low
pressure system. upper level ridging returns monday, and this is
when the warm air advection will really begin to take hold
again. temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s for
monday, and low pressure moving in from southwest for late
monday into monday night. this is the next convective chance for
the cwa with possibly better organization as it looks to be a
stronger overall surface system, but these details will come out
in subsequent forecasts. temperatures drop for the middle/end
of the week in what could be an extended period of normal to
slightly cooler than normal weather.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
predominately vfr conditions will impact this taf period ahead
of an approaching cold front later in the period. showers and
storms associated with this boundary will begin to impact
western terminals around 20z this afternoon before spreading
east into the late evening and early overnight hours. thunder is
possible especially earlier in the evening as instability
remains elevated. diminished visibilities to mvfr distances are
likely within the strongest storms, but should quickly rebound
after. post frontal, terminals will all likely diminish to mvfr
ceilings and visibilities, with patchy fog possible.

winds tonight will be light and variable before increasing to
5-10 knots from the southwest this afternoon. the exception will
be kcle and keri which have the potential to be impacted by a
light lake breeze. confidence is not as high at kcle compared to
keri, but given the late timing of the front, it is possible.
behind the boundary winds will remain 5-10 knots but shift to
northwesterly.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
possible this afternoon through saturday morning and again on
monday.

&&

.marine...
winds and waves are still expected to stay below marine headline
criteria through early next week due to relatively weak pressure
gradients. light e to se winds tonight will quickly turn ene at
10-20 knots friday as a warm front stalls over the lake. these
will be the strongest winds of the next 5 days. the winds will
gradually turn n at 5-10 knots friday night as a weak low
crosses the lake, with n to ne winds averaging 5-15 knots
persisting saturday and sunday as high pressure builds into the
great lakes. e to se winds will gradually increase monday as a
warm front approaches the lake, turning w to sw by tuesday as a
cold front crosses the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...04
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
926
fxus63 kiwx 240506
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
106 am edt fri apr 24 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered and thunderstorms are expected late overnight
and into friday. marginally severe storms are possible friday.

- unseasonably mild today and friday with highs in the 70s to
around 80 degrees.

- dry this weekend. the remaining flooded fields will have a
relatively brief chance to dry out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 241 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

the stage will be getting set for an active weather day friday as
strong impulses approach an environment that will be becoming
increasing more unstable with modest deep-layer shear. in
addition to the instability, precipitable water values will be
topping out between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. a narrow atmospheric
river will translate over the area friday afternoon, adding to
the potential for locally heavy rainfall in addition to the
damaging wind threat.

the potential for heavy rain will continue early next week as
a strong impulse reaches the area. wpc indicated rainfall amounts
around 1.00 inch across the entire forecast area monday into
monday night. these rainfall amounts will add to the potential
for renewed river flooding. at the present time, 6 of the area
rivers were in "action" stage and 3 of the area rivers were in
"flood" stage.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 106 am edt fri apr 24 2026

a slow moving cold front will cross the region this period. two
rounds of rain are possible at ksbn with the first arriving
around 12-15z and the second arriving roughly 18-21z. thunder
chances are a little better with the second round but still
overall low for both. at kfwa, thunderstorms are much more
likely and focused in the 20-00z window. relatively dry low
levels should maintain vfr conditions outside of any storms,
though.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
904
fxus63 kdtx 240348
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1148 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures continue friday with highs in the 70s.

- a frontal boundary tracks across lower michigan friday evening
leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms; isolated gusty
winds of 50+ mph and hail near 1 inch possible.

- becoming drier over the weekend with highs falling into the 50s
and 60s.

- showers and thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday with a
return to above normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation...

dry conditions with mostly clear skies aside from areas of high
cirrus tonight. mid-cloud increases through friday morning in
advance of an approaching cold front/low. there remains a low chance
for scattered showers in the morning tied to this inbound moisture
transport but confidence in coverage is too low at this point to
include in forecast. main window for convection arrives in the
afternoon-evening as the cold front pushes into lower mi with a
broken line of showers and storms crossing the terminal corridor.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms friday afternoon-evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 414 pm edt thu apr 23 2026

discussion...

the longwave ridge axis currently bisecting lower michigan will
begin to evolve from its omega block state tonight. a speed max
within the base of an upper low parked upstream will interface with
a southern stream jet streak over the four corners region, causing
the ridge to compress laterally. meanwhile, lower column dynamics
displaced east of the closed wave aloft support the advection of
higher thetae air into the region, but system-relative anticyclonic
isentropic descent creates unfavorable conditions for
destabilization. forecast soundings this evening do indicate
potential for meager sbcape amidst tenuous cap near 7 kft, but poor
mid-level lapse rates and aforementioned drying processes preclude
any upward revisions to pops, currently capped at 10 percent. should
an updraft break through the cap, it would most likely occur from 22-
01z, as a short-lived single-cell thunderstorm. mild temperatures
are forecast overnight, in the 50s (or about 10f above climo) which
are the result of increasing nocturnal cloud fraction and warm
advection.

broadening of the adjacent upper lows causes vorticity to gradually
extend into southern lower with time on friday. the system`s surface
low(s) track northeast across the state with pre-frontal troughing
touching off some showers friday morning. some residual weak
elevated instability with mucapes up to 100 j/kg could increase the
productivity of a few showers, therefore, increased pops from dry to
areas of chance from 12-14z. a midday lull in precipitation is
expected prior to the arrival of the cold front during the afternoon
and evening hours.

the front will likely still be over lake michigan by 18z friday,
based on the location of progged surface troughing/wind shift, but
warm sector instability will be building as moisture transport
maximizes. as expected, hi-res model space varies greatly in
coverage and intensity with the presence of preexisting convection,
new ci, and coverage as stronger dynamic support lags. the front
then progresses through southeast michigan by 00z friday evening
offering higher confidence in broader coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. areas west of us-23 are more likely to experience
strong to marginally severe storms as instability maximizes, and
better shear values ensue. gusty winds of 50+ mph and hail near 1
inch are possible. although storms may become better organized,
linearly, as convection moves eastward late friday evening,
intensity should be declining. winds shift from ssw to wnw behind
the front friday night with a muted thermodynamic response as
occlusion processes proceed.

broad range of high temperatures saturday with flow turning
northeasterly making for cooler conditions inland from lake huron,
while influence will be less prominent toward the southeast. 850 mb
temperatures closer to 10c reside near an inversion layer below 800
mb. no major precipitation concerns given ample mid-level dry air
and pwats dropping to around 0.40 inches. a few showers are possible
depending on the emergence/positioning of a deformation axis over
lakes superior and huron. afterwards, the western canada cyclonic
wave retrogrades while the other to east releases into the northern
atlantic leaving the great lakes within a weaker flow-field with
shortwave ridging overhead. this persists through sunday with the
next chance for showers/storms late monday into tuesday with the
arrival of a sharpening shortwave trough within an amplifying
southern stream wave. deterministics indicate surface central
pressure dropping to 990 mb.

marine...

the central great lakes will continue to hold under high pressure
this afternoon maintaining benign marine conditions. a warm front
will continue to move over southern portions of the great lakes this
evening. a low pressure system will develop over the upper midwest
and pushes in to the great lakes friday night into saturday. this
will bring chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms during
this time. ahead of the low on friday, southeasterly winds
strengthen with gusts around 30 kts possible over the northern
waters of lake huron as winds funnel towards the straits. another
high pressure then builds in later this weekend.

hydrology...

a frontal boundary tracks across the great lakes friday afternoon
through the overnight hours. basin average rainfall amounts are
expected to be between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, although localized
amounts over one inch remain possible, especially for areas
experiencing repeated rounds of showers/thunderstorms. ponding of
water on roadways and rises on area rivers will be the main impacts,
although localized minor flooding in urban and low lying areas
cannot ruled out.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...kgk
marine.......ss
hydrology....kgk/mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.