Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
913
fxus61 kcle 271947
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
247 pm est tue jan 27 2026

.what has changed...
there will be areawide snow this afternoon and evening. there is
a slightly higher snowfall forecast for portions of north
central ohio due to a large break in the lake erie ice and some
potential lake enhanced snow with the cold front this evening.
temperatures continue to trend colder on friday night, allowing
for a greater potential in more cold weather advisories later
this week and a non-zero chance for an extreme cold warning.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow is expected areawide this afternoon and evening with
some blowing snow favored west of i-71 and along the lakeshore.
additional light snow accumulations and blowing snow may result in
travel impacts through tonight.

2) extended cold weather, including the potential for record
low temperatures, will continue through the weekend, allowing
for elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will move through the local area this afternoon and
evening, supporting another round of areawide snow showers with
some accumulations of a couple tenths to one inch of snow for
most. there may be some brief periods of reduced visibility with
some more organized snow showers with gusty winds entering with
the front. however, suspect that visibility will be greater
than one-quarter of a mile and this front will not produce an
organized snow squall with immediate road impacts. there will be
special weather statements issued with this band of snow moving
through the region.

behind the front, there will be the opportunity for some lake
enhanced snow showers to linger through the evening with -20 c
850 mb temperatures overhead. the usual locations in far ne oh
and nw pa will see some residual snow with upstream connections
to lake huron. however, there is a large gap in the ice on lake
erie offshore of erie and lorain counties and there could be
some additional snow for areas west of cleveland in north
central ohio. therefore, have these areas as a target for
possibly 1-2" of snow through tonight.

after this system, the pattern will shift to a dry synoptic
pattern with high pressure in place and additional snow chances
through early next week will be limited. the colder spells
mentioned below will increase lake erie ice coverage and should
further limit any snow courtesy of lake effect.

key message 2...
with the reinforcing, arctic cold front moving through this
afternoon and evening, temperatures will remain frigid through
the weekend. high temperatures through sunday will stay below
20 degrees with single digit high temperatures likely on friday
and saturday for many locations. low temperatures will be
especially cold with single digit to below zero temperatures
through at least monday night. friday night into saturday may be
the coldest with many locations in the double digits below zero
if winds can calm and clouds can stay out of the region with
high pressure.

for tonight, the cold weather advisory will continue as
advertised through 11 am on wednesday with wind chill values in
the -15 to -22f range. for wednesday night and thursday night,
low temperatures will be colder and below zero for most folks.
however, with high pressure building overhead, winds will
diminish significantly and there may not be a true wind chill
for many locations. however, any wind would introduce the need
for more cold weather advisories. as said before, friday night
into saturday will be the coldest night and temperatures alone
may merit the need for cold weather advisories. however, if some
wind can develop, there would be the need for at least
advisories, if not some warnings in northwest and north central
ohio. there will be some level of moderation in temperature on
sunday and monday nights and wind chills below zero are likely
but probably stay above advisory-level.

this extended period of cold temperatures will bring increased
risk of infrastructure impacts due to the cold, including burst
pipes, water main breaks, and dead batteries. the prolonged
nature of the cold will also pose a continued risk of exposure
to more vulnerable populations. these impacts will continue
through at least monday.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
light snow associated with a clipper system across northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania will tend to lift north and
diminish this afternoon. a heavier burst of snow associated with
a cold front can be seen upstream across southeast michigan and
northern indiana and will sweep southeast across the area
between 18-00z. visibilities may briefly drop to a half to one
mile with the front with occasional snow showers lingering
behind the front for a couple hours. southwest winds will shift
to westerly with gusts of 25-30 knots. light snow showers off
lake michigan may impact fdy/mfd at times through the evening.
skies may scatter out at times but generally expect mostly
cloudy skies of 2500-4500 feet until starting to scatter out
from the southwest on wednesday. winds will drop to 7 knots or
less overnight.

outlook...additional periods of non-vfr with clouds and
snow showers are expected through this saturday. greatest
chances exist in ne oh and nw pa, where periodic lake-effect
snow downwind of mainly ice-covered lake erie should occur.

&&

.marine...
frequent wind shifts and variable speeds are expected on ice covered
lake erie this week as a series of weak systems impact the region.
sw winds will increase to 20-30 knots this morning ahead of a
clipper and associated cold front. winds will veer to w behind the
front this afternoon and evening, turning sw again tonight and
decreasing to 10-15 knots. sw winds will increase to 15-25 knots
wednesday ahead of another clipper and cold front that moves through
wednesday night veering winds to w while decreasing to 10-15 knots.
w winds of 10-15 knots will continue thursday, becoming nw at 5-10
knots thursday night and friday. winds will turn nnw by saturday and
slightly increase to 10-15 knots.

as mentioned, lake erie is now 100% ice covered. the latest ice
analysis shows that the majority of the ice is thin, but the deep
arctic air entrenched across the region will allow the ice to slowly
thicken through this weekend. the fluctuating wind speeds and
directions may lead to some shifting of the ice fields, but as the
ice continues to thicken, it will become more anchored in place.

&&

.climate...
record low temperatures are possible later this week. here are the
daily record low minimum temperatures for january 29 through 31:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-29 -9(1963) -14(1977) -17(1873) -13(1977) -12(1977) -10(1977)
01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019)
01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
wednesday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
pa...cold weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
wednesday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...10
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
760
fxus63 kiwx 271946
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
246 pm est tue jan 27 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers as well as blowing and drifting snow
will slowly diminish tonight. additional accumulations should
be under an inch.

- a cold weather advisory is in effect through wednesday
morning in northern indiana and northwestern ohio for wind
chills of 15 to possibly 20 below zero.

- additional lake effect snow chances exist into next week,
with the greatest chance friday into saturday and possibly
middle of next week.

- temperatures will remain well below freezing for the next 7
to 10 days with periods of sub zero wind chills common.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 241 pm est tue jan 27 2026

the arctic air mass will remain firmly entrenched across the region
through the forecast period, with temperatures remaining below
freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.

lake effect snow showers continue north of the toll road. overall
amounts so far have been generally light, with the greatest impacts
from blowing and drifting of both the existing snow pack and new
snowfall. some models linger the snow showers beyond the current
expiration, but primary reasoning on the headlines were to
address the blowing and drifting. winds should diminish by 00z,
so will leave the advisory unchanged and defer to the evening
shift to monitor trends in winds and band intensity. wind
chills have "improved" somewhat, ranging from zero to 10 below
zero (not factoring in wind gusts). while winds will diminish
somewhat overnight, areas away from the influence of lake
michigan will see air temperatures drop to near or below zero by
wednesday morning. with temperatures this cold, even a light
breeze can lower wind chills to 15 below or colder. cold weather
advisory was issued this morning as the previous one expired.
while some areas in far southern lower michigan could see wind
chills near criteria on the southern fringe of the cloud cover,
overall duration didn`t appear to be enough to warrant placing
them in the headlines.

while some minor modifications in the low level temperature profiles
takes place thursday, another reinforcing shot of cold arrives with
a strong west to east oriented trough that dives south to possibly
kick up the lake effect machine again fri into saturday. wind chills
could become a concern with this system. this shot will be somewhat
quicker with a bit more moderation in temps expected sunday into
monday as 500 mb heights climb above 540 dm, resulting in highs
climbing above 20 degrees. don`t get your hopes up that near/above
freezing temperatures will follow as this brief ridging will be
quickly followed by a strong wave that will slow any potential
warming. some precip could accompany this feature as well, but
plenty of time to assess any concerns in future forecasts.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1238 pm est tue jan 27 2026

periods of moderate snowfall and even blowing snow in
northwesterly gusts up to 30 kts will continue to be possible
for both taf sites with fluctuations of ifr/mvfr vsbys with mvfr
cigs through around 00z wed this evening with the frontal
passage and disturbance. winds will begin to weaken later
tonight with a few light snow showers still possible and mainly
mvfr cigs with some improvement to vfr categories between 09-12z
wed expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening
for inz005-103-104-203-204.
cold weather advisory from midnight est /11 pm cst/ tonight to
10 am est /9 am cst/ wednesday for inz005>009-012>015-017-
018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...cold weather advisory from midnight tonight to 10 am est
wednesday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz078-
079-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
783
fxus63 kdtx 272020
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 pm est tue jan 27 2026

.key messages...

- minimum wind chill of -8 to -13 degrees expected wednesday morning.

- potential for light snow showers to develop wednesday. localized
accumulation of a dusting to half inch possible.

- windchills thursday morning are expected to be in the 10 to 15
degree below zero range and windchills friday morning are expected
to be in the 15 to 20 degree below zero range.

&&

.discussion...

renewed cold air advection well underway late this afternoon, as
northwest flow deepens within the immediate wake of a low-mid level
frontal passage. pockets of snow showers will continue to funnel
through over the next several hours given supportive lapse rates and
moisture depth, before steadily declining in coverage by early
evening as drier air makes greater inroads with time. core of
coldest air descends across the region this evening, marked by 850 mb
temps of -22 to -23c. notable drying during this window offers a
period of limited cloud coverage and provides the greatest
opportunity for radiational cooling. low level flow will then back
with time overnight as weak warm air advection emerges, drawing the
higher plume of low level moisture back into the area. given the
prospective cloud cover, this will place a slightly higher floor on
projected lows. forecast will continue to highlight a low temperature
around zero, with a persistent 5kt gradient affording a minimum in
wind chill generally around -10f for the morning period.

similar level of arctic cold noted wednesday and wednesday night.
shortwave energy lifting through the region during the daylight
period will offer a modest degree of upward vertical motion.
moisture quality remains rather lean, but existing lake michigan
moisture flux in cold low level westerly flow will work to
supplement this ascent. broader signal of convergence exists
targeting the m-59 to i-94 corridor for intervals of light snow
showers/flurries as diurnal lapse rates steepen during the
afternoon. a secondary area of focus across the thumb as a trailing
arctic wave glances across the northern great lakes. limited
accumulation potential overall with the cloud layer atop the dgz,
but a localized dusting to half inch plausible should a more focused
response emerge. daylight temps peaking in the teens with wind chill
hovering around zero. projected minimum wind chill at this stage
remains largely inside the -10 to 15f range.

the unrelenting arctic cold will remain the focus to end the work
week. hudson bay polar low will shear southeast during this time,
providing one final reinforcing shot of arctic air featuring an 850
mb temperature aob -23c. similar to conditions noted late last week,
this will provide an extended stretch of high magnitude cold with
wind chill below zero degrees between thursday night and saturday
morning. higher likelihood for headline worthy wind chill readings
/below -15f/ again friday morning. a very dry profile with general
stability throughout the column limits snowfall potential this
period, but will monitor the northerly trajectory off lake huron to
see if a response can manifest off the increasingly ice covered
waters and glance across the eastern thumb region. dry and stable
conditions this weekend as low-mid level ridging takes control
within a gradually moderating arctic thermal profile.

&&

.marine...

brief westerly gusts to gales possible late this afternoon behind
the departing arctic front. otherwise, post frontal westerly winds
this evening peak out around 30 knots this evening, and then ease
slightly overnight as cold advection is exhausted. none-the-less,
localized lake effect activity this evening and tonight over lake
huron with west-northwest winds leading to a lake superior-northern
lake huron connection. low level winds back to the west-southwest by
wednesday morning and look to be around 20 knots, as yet
another arctic front and frigid airmass arrives. very cold airmass
(negative mid 20s at 850 mb) will lead to lake induced trough on
thursday, with northerly winds kicking in to finish the work week.
wind speeds look to remain under 30 knots. slowly moderating airmass
and mostly light winds look to be in store for the weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1245 pm est tue jan 27 2026

aviation...

arctic front is sliding southeast through ptk at press time and will
be through the detroit sites between 1830-19z. included a short
prevailing group to account for the more intense snow showers along
the front with mvfr showers in it`s wake for a few hours. improved
conditions tonight with the northwesterly flow shunting most of the
lingering lake effect to the south of the taf sites and clearing
skies tonight. gusty winds will decrease overnight while backing to
the southeast. this will push the lake band back north through at
least the detroit sites. will bring in cigs and assess whether snow
will make it or not in later forecasts.

for dtw...brief 30 minute window of ifr snow at the start of the
forecast as the arctic front pushes through. mostly mvfr showers the
rest of the afternoon into the evening before activity scatters out
and the main lake effect band reestablishes itself south of i94.
veering winds wednesday morning will push the band back north and
could bring snow showers back around 12z. will then have to watch
where the band settles for the afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 until 00z low overnight and
medium again wednesday morning.

* high in precipitation type as snow.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......mr
aviation.....drk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.