Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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827
fxus61 kcle 141140
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
640 am est sat nov 14 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were
needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect rain/snow showers are expected this morning
before transitioning to rain through sunday.

2) high pressure builds in early next week with drier, seasonable
weather expected through the majority of the week. temperatures
may rise above normal by late next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
lake effect showers will continue through much of the weekend
thanks to persistent upper level troughing. precip type will
start off as a cold rain or a rain/snow/graupel mix early this
morning, but extensive cloud cover and air coming off of
relatively warm lake erie will result in marginal temperatures
between roughly 33 and 37 degrees at inland locations downwind from
lake erie (and even warmer temperatures along the lakeshore).
showers will also be rather cellular in nature so do not
anticipate any appreciable snow accumulation outside of some
slush on grassy surfaces. any snow will transition to rain as
temperatures warm after sunrise today, but graupel can`t be
ruled out in any heavier showers that develop later today.


showers may pick up in intensity as flow becomes a bit more
westerly and a better moisture connection to lake huron is
established by this point, there will likely be a primary band
of rain across far ne oh and possibly into nw pa with scattered
lake effect showers to the east and west. in general, rain
amounts will remain below half an inch, but locally higher
amounts are possible where the lake huron band persists.
temperatures will likely remain above freezing in most locations
tonight so expecting a wet rain, but can`t rule out a few
snowflakes mixing with rain across typical cold spots in
interior nw pa overnight.

the upper trough will take some time to push east on sunday so
showers will likely linger across the snowbelt region, but
anticipate a downward trend in coverage and intensity throughout
the day sunday as drier air filters in from the west. any
lingering showers should diminish as high pressure takes control
late sunday night or early monday morning.

key message 2...
high pressure will build east over the area early next week and
persist for several days, resulting in dry weather monday
through at least friday. temperatures will gradually increase
with slightly below normal highs in the upper 40s to around 50
degrees giving way to above normal highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s by friday as the high shifts east.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
lake effect showers continue across parts of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania this morning with mainly mvfr ceilings.
mostly clear skies are observed elsewhere.

a surface trough will swing through, bringing bkn/ovc skies
areawide with mvfr ceilings. lake effect showers will remain
confined to mainly northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania,
where precipitation will transition from a rain/snow mix early
this morning to primarily rain the rest of the day. rain will
mostly be light, though periods of moderate rainfall could
briefly produce ifr conditions at times (with both visibility
and ceilings), primarily impacting kyng, but could also impact
kcle and kcak.

lake effect precipitation will continue tonight and sunday,
though will be gradually tapering off. a rain/snow mix is
possible again tonight.

vfr ceilings present at terminals tonight will return to mvfr
early this morning across much of northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. lake effect precipitation is expected to continue
downwind of lake erie through the taf period with precipitation
likely at cle/cak/yng. precipitation type may briefly change
over to a rain/snow mix during the overnight hours before
returning to mainly rain during the daytime. northwest winds
around 10-12 knots today with gusts up to 20 knots will diminish
to around 5-8 knots tonight.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend.

&&

.marine...
unsettled conditions are expected on lake erie through much of
this weekend. winds east of the islands will be out of the
northwest at 15 to 25 knots through tonight with winds gradually
diminishing sunday morning. small craft advisories remain in
effect from the islands east to conneaut oh through late sunday
morning and from conneaut oh to ripley ny from 10 am this
morning until early sunday morning. there is also potential for
waterspouts in lake effect showers through early this afternoon.

northwest winds will be between 10 and 15 knots sunday and
sunday night with flow diminishing slowing shifting to the west
and diminishing to 10 knots or less monday. by tuesday morning,
winds will become southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots.
similar flow will persist through wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est
sunday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...saunders
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
635 am est sat nov 14 2026

.key messages...

- scattered lake effect rain showers, possibly mixed with some
snow, are expected to shift across far northwest indiana and
southwest lower michigan this morning. any snow is expected to
be limited to trace amounts.

- scattered rain showers later this morning will diminish this
afternoon with mostly cloudy skies expected.

- below normal temperatures continue today through the weekend
followed by slowly moderating temperatures into the low to mid
60s by the end of the upcoming work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 am est sat nov 14 2026

lake effect precipitation continues this morning across northwest
indiana. a larger scale upper level trough is sinking southward
across the southern great lakes early this morning and southward
passage of this upper trough should begin to create more favorable
backing wind profiles to support eastward movement of lake effect
precip. along with these more favorable trajectories is
diminishing rh in the snow production layer, which appears to be
resulting in an increased cellular nature in the regional radar
mosaic presentation. a weak mid level trough accompanying this
upper level short wave should bring a narrow west-east axis of
better mid level rh for a brief time in the 08z-12z time period
this morning. however, this will still be a very marginal mid
level moisture profile in the snow production layer and will be
transitory in nature as the weak mid level trough axis sinks
south.

in terms of thermal profiles, sharp cooling has occurred outside of
lake effect clouds, but as favored lake effect precip area shifts
eastward over next several hours, sfc/near sfc wet bulbs will begin
to creep up downwind of lake michigan leading to a possible
preference to light lake effect rain showers, or perhaps even a
little bit of drizzle at times as morning progresses as the dgz
dries out even more behind the aforementioned mid level trough
axis. forecast thinking has not changed much since the last
cycle, with any snow likely of the trace variety given the above
factors. liquid equivalent precip will also not be in the same
ballpark as experienced past 24 hours across extreme nw indiana
with this lake effect precip as synoptic forcing and moisture
depths become more marginal this morning.

some increase in clouds is expected across the area this morning
given this subtle backing wind profile with generally mostly
cloudy to partly sunny skies today as narrow layer of low level
moisture may be trapped by weak subsidence inversion. thermal
profiles are not significantly different from yesterday which
should yield similar highs in the mid to upper 40s.

for tonight, a lagging weak mid/upper level short wave is forecast
to round the departing larger scale negative upper height anomaly
into the southern great lakes. mid level moisture recovery
looks limited however, but could see some weak rejuvenation of
some light lake effect rain showers/sprinkles this evening. will
maintain lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight with
expectation that low clouds should tend to linger.

the longwave pattern through the weekend should be a stable one and
slowly evolving in a conus trough-ridge-trough setup, with a cut
off upper low across the southern plains. this stable wave pattern
will be accompanied by weak baroclinicity and weak advective
trends which will make the moderation in temperatures quite a
slow process, especially considering low level mixing will
remain weak through early next week. there is a greater
potential of better insolation into sunday and monday however,
which will likely push highs into the lower 50s.

the extended periods of the forecast still look rather benign as
guidance continues to suggest next pacific wave attempts to
dampen the upper ridge across the area for the middle of the
week. this system looks to be quite progressive with an axis of
better 925-800 mb mixing ratios shifting into the area late
wednesday. any elevated instability along this axis looks to be
quite limited in nature and expectation is still that better
rain chances will be confined north of the area.

mid/upper level heights recover quickly behind this short wave for
thursday and friday, with a potential of a larger scale and more
dynamic eastern pacific upper trough moving across western conus by
late thursday into friday. a large part of central/eastern conus
will experience well above normal temps downstream of this feature
for the thu-sat period. still some expected discrepancies noted
in medium range deterministic/ensemble solutions in timing of
this feature toward the days 6-7 period, but blended pops
including low chances by next weekend still appear reasonable as
a low level jet axis and better moisture transport shift east
into the local area.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 630 am est sat nov 14 2026

predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions at the terminals, with the
best potential for any rain/snow showers at ksbn this morning.
as of right now, light rain is reported with a temp around 34
degrees at ksbn, with ceilings around 2500 ft. upstream
observations and model guidance suggest there is potential for
ceilings to drop to 1500-2000 ft this morning with vis around
5sm, so have a tempo until 16z to accommodate this. guidance is
conflicted with respect to how long the potential exists for
these lower thresholds and showers (some take the precip/lower
ceilings just northeast of the terminal after 16z), so have a
prob30 to cover this. otherwise, mvfr conditions approach with a
trough this afternoon and evening, bringing even kfwa down to
mvfr (they are temporarily clear/vfr right now). some of the
guidance suggests a lake influence all the way inland with a
boost in lift from the trough creating rain showers this
afternoon, but it`s tough to say how impactful they will be
given incoming dry air. have a prob30 at kfwa for the most
likely time period of any showers, with potential for ceilings
around 2kft.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
633 am est sat nov 14 2026

.key messages...

- a narrow corridor of lake effect rain showers (briefly mixed with
melting snow) persists today and tonight, mainly along the southern
lake huron shoreline.

- mostly cloudy skies expected elsewhere through the weekend.

- brisk morning winds drop wind chills into the 20s (isolated upper
teens), followed by similar conditions sunday morning.

- dry weather expected area-wide monday through thursday with a
steady warming trend.

&&

.aviation...

troughing with accompanying cold air at the surface will continue to
encapsulate southeast michigan today. moisture and saturation is
progged to remain trapped below a developing inversion at 4.0 to 7.0
kft agl as winds persist out of the north. prevailing mvfr is
expected. warming below 5.0 kft agl is expected to hold off until
midday sunday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet today and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 232 am est sat nov 14 2026

discussion...

the synoptic environment continues to evolve as expected given the
highly amplified omega block draped across conus. southeast michigan
remains positioned near the eastern longwave trough axis which will
undergo a restructuring during the course of the day. the primary
upper low is expected to become absorbed by a retrograding 528 dam
500 mb low tracking southwestward along the st. lawrence river,
which then settles over the northeast this evening. meanwhile,
upstream longwave ridging drifts eastward, easing into the upper
midwest/minnesota. this results in the local area becoming
positioned between the complementary waves while an embedded speed
max transits due south over the central great lakes. the cva induces
subtle forcing aloft to maintain localized areas of lake effect
precipitation for most of the day. however, coverage will be limited
to the eastern thumb and locations along the immediate southern lake
huron shoreline, after northerly flow backs north-northwesterly
later today.

thermodynamically, deterministic solutions indicate slight
degradation of the existing thermal trough as weak warm advection
slips in from the encroaching ridge. 850 mb temperatures should lift
by 2 or 3 c today, but still anomalously cold, resulting in highs
only in the mid 40s. regarding precipitation type within the narrow
corridor of lake effect showers, forecast soundings reveal eventual
drying through the dgz as flow backs between 5 and 7 kft agl. this
limits the likelihood for ice nuclei, therefore, rain is the
preferred hydrometeor form as the day progresses. note that some
snowflakes could still mix in during the morning hours today given
deeper saturation depths. not as chilly overnight thanks to
insulating lake stratocumulus, but still colder than normal.

the lower tropospheric anticyclone builds northeastward out of the
mid-mississippi valley sunday, weakening boundary layer flow. lower
column winds now look to retain a northwesterly, if not north-
northwesterly trajectory well into the afternoon hours, but the lack
of shear should suffice in concluding residual lake effect
precipitation by mid afternoon. likewise, lake induced clouds will
linger into sunday evening, and likely into the overnight hours.
significant column drying and subsidence ensue sunday night as the
longwave ridge crosses overhead. 1030 mb surface high pressure
gradually builds into the ohio valley with time which flips weak
gradient flow southwesterly.

temperatures moderate throughout next week as the ridge flattens but
lingers from southern appalachia into the southeast. this preserves
an increasingly confluent stream of milder gulf-modified air from
the southwest. a progressive pacific wave unblocks the pattern and
is what causes the ridge to de-amplify, but mid-range guidance
continues to delay the arrival of embedded shorter wavelength
cyclonic features until thursday or friday. still, most of the qpf
associated with the passing surface reflection tracking across the
up/lake superior also holds farther north. solutions also differ in
the passage of the attendant cold front, with warm advection
possibly hanging on as the next wave`s deeper core preserves
southwesterly flow into the weekend. global models suggests 850 mb
temperatures could make a run at 10c late next week, suggesting 2m
temperatures above 60f may be achievable. some ensembles families
support this case, in addition to the lack of measurable
precipitation before the weekend.

marine...

northwest flow holds today which will sustain breezy conditions
across lake huron. gusts ranging between 20 to 25 knots are
expected. ongoing lake effect rain bands will also continue across
the southern lake huron basin through the day. the small craft
advisories remain in effect from the outer saginaw bay to port
huron, aligned where elevated wave heights reside. an isolated
waterspout cannot be ruled out with any stronger rain shower. high
pressure to then build in over the great lakes starting tomorrow.
this will end lake effect precipitation across southern lake huron
by the afternoon as wind speeds decrease. the influence of high
pressure will bring an extended period of dry weather through the
midweek period along with lighter winds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.