Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
271
fxus61 kcle 040529
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1229 am est wed nov 4 2026

.what has changed...
rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing
a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.

2) an upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern
continuing into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as
a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure track east into the lower great lakes and ohio valley
region. moisture transport from the gulf will increase area
pwats on wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th
percentile for early november at regional sites. widespread
showers are expected to enter from the west wednesday morning
and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west
to east in the evening. can`t rule out a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms tomorrow as sbcape values may briefly increase to
a few hundred j/kg in the morning and early afternoon. severe
threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability
amount. overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50
inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts
of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of us-30.
additionally, a 40-50 llj will move overhead tomorrow and allow
for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 mph.

key message 2...
there will likely be a window of dry weather on thursday as the
trough lifts north before another trough sinks south thursday
night into friday. this secondary trough will lead to occasional
chances for showers downwind of lake erie through the weekend
and into early next week. cooler temperatures expected this
weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are expected early this morning ahead of a cold
front and rain entering the region from the west. a low level
jet will enter the region ahead of the front and present a llws
threat, mainly to the western taf sites. as rain enters the
region during the late morning hours, ceilings will fall to
lower vfr and eventually to mvfr with persistent rain showers.
winds will remain out of the south with gusts of 20 to 30 kts
with the rain today. some ifr could develop, especially in
typical spots like kmfd, kcak, and kyng. the cold front will
move through the airspace late in the taf period, ending the
rain and shifting winds to the southwest.

outlook...low pressure and a cold front crossing through the
region friday into saturday bring the next potential round of
non-vfr in rain showers/low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across lake erie today
into tomorrow morning. a 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead
the lower great lakes during the day tomorrow which may
increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots wednesday afternoon and
evening. given the southerly component, the highest wave heights
of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the
higher wind speeds. winds shift southwesterly behind a cold
front wednesday night into thursday before diminishing to 10-15
knots by thursday evening. winds turn northwesterly in the wake
of a trough friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally
between 10 and 20 knots. conditions, particularly in the central
basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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604
fxus63 kiwx 040715
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
215 am est wed nov 4 2026

.key messages...

- rain arrives from south to north this morning.

- not as warm today but remaining somewhat breezy with wind
gusts of 30 to 30 mph.

- drying out tonight through thursday morning before lake
enhanced showers begin and persist into saturday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 214 am est wed nov 4 2026

a 1002mb low swirls over far southwest wi early this morning
while a lagging cold front bulges into western il. an area of
rain is lifting through the ohio river valley beneath 75-knot
500mb flow and a 50-knot 850-mb jet. rain today will generally
amount to 0.10- 0.25". far northwest oh might see slightly
more based on the trajectory of the heaviest returns upstream,
in an area of favorable moisture convergence aided by the
aformentioned jets. forecast soundings show little chance of
any deep low-level mixing today which will keep wind gusts in
check; primarily 20 mph to 30 mph. rain tapers off from west to
east by early afternoon as the dryslot moves overhead. cold air
advection is delayed until late in the day due to boundary-
parallel flow and will be most noticeable by thursday when with
lows in the mid- 40s and highs shy of 60 degrees (a touch mild
still for early november).

after a dry start to thursday, a secondary trough axis ripples
through in the late afternoon providing ample lift for scattered
showers. reinforcing cold air (2c at 850mb) over a 10-13c lake
michigan results in lake enhanced showers that persist into
saturday morning. (if the airmass were colder, this would be a
solid les setup.) friday and saturday are the coldest of this
forecast period as deep troughing is entrenched over the eastern
great lakes.

temperates inch upward early next week as we lie on the cusp of a
south-central us ridge. how far east this ridge propagates is
uncertain with the prospect of a potential blocking pattern taking
shape over the interior rockies. for now, precipitation chances
appear minimal, but a shift in energetic northwest flow could flip
the script if the ridge is not as strong, bringing passing chances
for light rain.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1247 am est wed nov 4 2026

strong low level jet pushing northward currently over il with
light to moderate rainfall will slowly push eastward overnight
bringing a drop from vfr to mvfr cat cigs after 11z wed for
both taf sites. light to moderate rain showers can be expected
with some slight lowering of vsbys to around 6sm in light rain
at times between 11z and 21z wed. gusty southerly winds with
gusts up to around 25 kts expected through this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
843
fxus63 kdtx 040819
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
319 am est wed nov 4 2026

.key messages...

- mild still today with light rain showers around for much of the
day.

- briefly drier to start thursday before scattered shower return
late thursday-friday.

- temperatures return to normal values to end the week.

&&

.discussion...

occluding low pressure continues to lift into the northern great
lakes shifting llj structure over the mississippi up into the
southern great lakes. connection to the gulf draws anomalous
moisture into se mi this morning as pw values push 1.5", near daily
climatological maxima, supporting widespread showers throughout the
morning into this afternoon. gusty southerly winds also accompany
this structure as diurnal mixing at least partially taps into 30-
35kt flow at 925mb resulting in wind gusts generally in the 25-30mph
though with peak potential towards 35mph. llj forcing shifts east
into ontario by the latter half of the afternoon tapering off wider
spread rain and transitioning to pockets of lingering drizzle/light
rain. secondary window for greater coverage arrives this evening as
a broken line of showers tied to the cold front cross the state.

significantly drier airmass trails this cold fropa late tonight as
the system`s dry slot works across se mi through the first half of
thursday. southwesterly winds post-frontal winds moderate the
magnitude of cold advection keeping slightly above normal
temperatures around with highs in the upper 50s to around 60. the,
by this point, closed low then sinks southeast across lake huron
latter half of thursday into friday offering another period of
scattered light showers. secondary cold front eventually sweeps
through the region friday morning bringing both a window of enhanced
shower coverage as well as briefly ushering in a seasonably average
airmass to close out the week. near to sub 0c 850mb temps result in
highs only around 50, give or take a couple degrees either side,
both friday and saturday. long range models favoring low amplitude
ridging redeveloping over the central conus by early next week which
would bring back above normal temps to se mi.

&&

.marine...

low pressure occludes over the western great lakes today,
maintaining moderate south to southeast wind across the area today.
warm air aloft maintains stability over the lakes that will limit
the higher magnitude wind from mixing down. however, gusts as high
as 25 to 30 kt are expected over the open waters of lake huron this
afternoon and evening while shorter fetch over the nearshore waters
will limit gusts to the 20 to 25 kt range there. a small craft
advisory is in effect for the thumb shoreline where wave heights are
forecast to build over 4 feet. saginaw bay, lake st. clair, and
western lake erie may see a brief period of gusts in excess of 25 kt
late afternoon, but confidence is too low for an advisory at this
time. a cold front brings light rain late in the day and into
tonight with wind veering to southwest behind the front after
sunset. the weakening low pressure meanders across the western great
lakes on thursday while deeper mixing brings southwest wind to 25 kt
across saginaw bay. a stronger cold front then tracks southward
across the region on friday. this brings gusty north and northeast
wind that shifts northwest and weakens by saturday. additional light
rain will accompany this frontal passage.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1147 pm est tue nov 3 2026

aviation...

strong anticyclonic vorticity advection is still ongoing across
southeast michigan as the region remains situated within high
amplitude upper level ridging. persistent subsidence is forecasted
to continue through this evening. strong thetae advection on +45
knot low level jet arrives after 10z with an axis of shower activity
and ifr conditions likely. dry slotting is expected for the midday
period with the potential for shower activity along the cold front
2124z. south to southwest winds wednesday of 25 to 30 knots.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and wednesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight est
tonight for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......tf
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.