Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
504
fxus61 kcle 192343
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
743 pm edt tue may 19 2026

.what has changed...
a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for western counties
until 7pm this evening. some convection has begun to develop
upstream of the area and is expected to move into the
destabilizing area across nw oh. current temperatures have
surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. the
primary concern remains strong winds. will need to continue to
monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is
needed.

&&

.key messages...
1) the entire area remains highlighted in slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. primary
threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and
small hail are possible.

2) a big cool down is on the way for wednesday and thursday as high
moves into the area.

3) an unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
this afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far
neoh and nwpa, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and
limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. however,
across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. this has allowed for
rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting sb cape
already in the 2000-2500 j/kg range and steepening low level lapse
rates close to 8 c/km. the best shear with this event should remain
north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range.
given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see
some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line
expected to push east later this evening. dcape values near 1000
j/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any
convection with be strong to damaging winds. cannot rule out some
small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary
line. the tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given
the best shear is to the north of the area. any quick spin ups that
do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this
evening. the final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in
the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on
area roads. modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells
could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in
timing with an increased warm cloud layer and pwat push. overall
concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to
highlight the potential wpc has included the entire area in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) ero today.

key message 2...
late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across
the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for
wednesday and thursday. high temperatures are expected to be nearly
20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper
50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7c nudge south over the area. some
lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of
counties on wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and
high pressure dries everything out through thursday. unfortunately,
that means that wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage
across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on thursday.
to compliment daytime highs, overnight lows wednesday night will
fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s
thursday night. at this point, there is no concern for a late season
frost.

key message 3...
the upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple
shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of
showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary
settles somewhere near the cwa. initially, this boundary on friday
should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to
warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. then this
boundary will ebb and flow over the cwa as the aforementioned
troughs push east. as moisture increases over the area, multiple
rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in
possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial
flooding where rain persists. wpc has already highlighted the area
in a day 4 marginal (level 1 of 5) ero. the thunder potential should
be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional
support for shower development, but any severe potential remains
uncertain at this time. highs throughout the weekend will be in the
70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
a line of thunderstorms are moving across ohio currently
located along the i-71 corridor, west of kcle and east of kfdy.
the line will continue to move eastward over the next few hours
until it clears out of the region and east of kyng by 04z. with
the thunderstorms, periodic gusts of up to 30-40 knots are
expected as well as heavy rain dropping visibility down to ifr
conditions. behind the convection, a cold front will pass
through the region and winds will begin to shift to be out of
the northwest by 05-09z, then out of the north by midday
wednesday. additionally, ceilings will lower behind the front
down to mvfr with some ifr possible kmfd, kcak, kyng, keri.
conditions will steadily improve towards the end of the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in periodic showers late friday
through saturday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds gusting 20-30kts over the western basin and
15-25kts over the central and eastern basins ahead of a strong
cold front that will come through later this evening/tonight. at
that point, winds will come onshore in the wake of that front,
northwesterly 10-15kts later tonight, and then northeasterly
wednesday into wednesday night 10-15kts, and then 15-20kts
thursday through friday night. small craft advisories may be
needed in these northeasterly winds for the middle and end of
the week. winds variable around 10kts for the weekend.

&&

.climate...
a record high temperature occurred at erie, pennsylvania on monday.
high temperatures today will approach record values at some locations
again. the following are the records for may 19.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>144.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...23
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
798
fxus63 kiwx 191829
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
229 pm edt tue may 19 2026

.key messages...

- strong to severe storms are possible today through 9 pm edt.

- damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the
main threats. low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated
tornado.

- warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- cooler and dry midweek with highs only in the 60s wednesday
and thursday.

- next chance for rain and a few storms arrive friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 pm edt tue may 19 2026

a cold front currently positioned over wisconsin and illinois
will swing eastward and through the local forecast area this
evening. ahead of this front, strong to severe storms will become
possible this afternoon and evening. the region is well into the
warm sector with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. the moisture combined
with daytime heating supports sbcape of 2000-2500 j/kg,
especially east of the i-69 corridor where cloud cover has been
minimal today. destabilization is beginning to occur with
cumulus development evident on satellite. the best chances for
strong to severe storms will be 3-9 pm edt today. the greatest
risk area will be along and south of us-24, where a slight risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. shear is still
expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind
profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to
30 kts. with weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be
multicell clusters or line segments. given dcape over 1000 j/kg
this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of
7-8 c/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today.
confidence in isolated tornado chances is decreasing due to
current low level srh less than 150 m2/s2, and forecast to
decrease today. if one were to develop, the potential is still
greatest in nw ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up
and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving
in from west to east. with pwats now around 1.5-1.6", even if
storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient
with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr.

after the passage of the cold front, the second half of the workweek
will be much cooler with highs only in the 60s through friday. rain
showers will likely be continuing southeast of us-24 on wednesday
morning before drier air moves in. the next chance for rain will
then be on friday afternoon in association with a shortwave coming
up from the southwest. we could get a bit of a break on saturday
before a stronger upper trough moves across the region on sunday.
unsettled weather will also be possible on memorial day, especially
south of us-30, but model agreement is poor so there is low
confidence in forecast specifics.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1255 pm edt tue may 19 2026

afternoon destabilization ahead of a cold front is expected to
allow storms to develop rapidly. the satellite picture indicated
a line of convection was developing near the southeast shore of
lake michigan. there was a very tight cape gradient over indiana
with values between 2500 to 3000 j/kg to the east (and values
much lower to the west). all indications are storms will develop
rapidly near and and northwest of sbn, so have included sbn in
thunderstorms at the start of the taf period. winds will shift
to the northwest behind the front with the activity moving
southeast of sbn. as for fwa, convection should fill in with the
front, so went for a higher confidence (22-02z) with chances
for storms after 02z. winds should shift to the northwest at
both sites with lingering ceilings vfr or close to 030.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
734
fxus63 kdtx 191832
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
232 pm edt tue may 19 2026

.key messages...

- severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the eastern two thirds
of the cwa until 7 pm

- dry and cool wednesday through friday morning.

- rain returns by friday evening and continues into saturday.

&&

.discussion...

pressure fields clearly show the prefrontal trough tracking through
western sections of the cwa. this trough will serve as the focus for
continued convection. southwest gradient winds have been gusting 30
to 40 mph this afternoon, indicative of some decent wind fields.
with temperatures reaching the mid-80s and dew points in the mid-to-
upper 60s, mlcapes have reached 1500+ j/kg south of m-59. per latest
spc mesoscale analysis and dtw acars data, the cin/cap has eroded
completely. thus, further shower and thunderstorm development is
expected through the rest of the afternoon. a severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect for the eastern two-thirds of the cwa until 7 pm,
but there is a good chance it may be canceled earlier.

localized/scattered damaging wind gusts should be the dominant
hazard, given the mainly unidirectional low-level flow and good
downdraft capes. however, because of the earlier start to activity
and weak convergence along the prefrontal trough, it may be tough to
sustain updrafts to support organized severe storms (barring any
interactions with outflow boundaries).

the actual cold front still needs to move through during the evening
hours, and additional storms will be possible with any leftover
instability. however, expect this prefrontal activity to deplete
much of the fuel for the main front.

upper-level confluent flow and sprawling high pressure (1032 mb)
will be in place tomorrow through friday morning over the great
lakes region, supporting dry and cool weather.

rain showers will return by friday evening, however. longwave
troughing over the rockies will capture and send a subtropical
shortwave and moisture-laden warm front into southern lower michigan
by friday night. 850 mb dew points are progged to reach into the
lower teens (celsius) on saturday. eps probabilities for 24-hour
rainfall exceeding half an inch are in the 60-70 percent range for
the bulk of southeast michigan.

&&

.marine...

small craft advisories remain in place into this evening as
southwest winds gust around 25 knots along the land/marine
interface. the development of strong to severe thunderstorms is
increasingly likely this afternoon into the evening, favored across
southern lake huron and locations south. a severe thunderstorm watch
is now in effect until 7pm edt. wind gusts aoa 45 knots will be the
primary hazard for severe weather development. passage of the cold
front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the
southwest to northwest through the evening. high pressure builds
behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 204 pm edt tue may 19 2026

aviation...

another hot and humid day (by mid-may standards) lends potential for
diurnal convection this afternoon and early evening. to the west of
the terminals, initial updrafts are testing what little remains of
the capping inversion layer, characterized by shallow updrafts and
limited glaciation/lightning. meanwhile, sufficient daytime
insolation should lead to surface-based instability within the next
couple of hours marking an expansion in convective coverage across
some of the terminals. confidence is highest from ptk south, but
uncertainty in overall coverage/intensity of thunderstorms remains.
fnt will be right on the edge of the pre-frontal troughing so opted
for a vcts mention as opposed to a tempo for thunder the rest of the
pm hours. visibilities will drop to ifr in the heaviest downpours.
non-convective gusts have stayed elevated given the ambient wind
fields, but expect enhancements within water-loaded downdrafts.
nocturnal stabilization emerges overnight as gusts drop-off, and
gradient winds gradually veer toward the north throughout the
overnight hours. post-frontal northerly flow draws a plume of low-
level moisture through southeast michigan late tonight into
wednesday morning favoring mvfr ceilings.

d21/dtw convection...window for scattered convection is focused
between 20z and 23z this afternoon/evening, although initial storms
could drift eastward a bit sooner. storm motion will be southwest to
northeast around 40 kt while the corridors of storms migrate west to
east. ifr visibility reductions possible in heaviest downpours.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunderstorms 20-23z today.

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through this evening, then
high early wednesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

dense fog advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz361>363-
462>464.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......sf
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.