Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
224 am edt sat apr 11 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry, but cooler today.

2) above normal temperatures sunday through late next week.
unsettled with daily shower and thunderstorm chances monday
onward.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
canadian high pressure builds across the lower great lakes today
ushering in dry but cooler weather. northerly flow across the lake
will allow for some lake effect cloud cover this morning before
it clears out this afternoon. high temperatures along the
lakeshore will struggle to reach 50 degrees with highs south of
the lake in the mid to upper 50s. chilly again tonight with lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. slightly cooler across northwest
pennsylvania with lows in the low to mid 30s.

key message 2...
surface high will exit to the east saturday night into sunday
allowing for warm and moist air to advect into the region. this
will begin a period of warm but unsettled weather with nearly
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of
shortwaves move overhead.

sunday should largely remain dry, but some light rain showers may
clip lakeshore zones as a shortwave moves northeast across the lower
great lakes. another shortwave will move east across the region on
monday bringing increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
additional shortwaves will keep at least slight chance to chance
pops in the forecast through the end of the week. the one timeframe
to keep an eye on will be tuesday night into wednesday where more
organized convection may develop. spc has clipped northwest ohio in
their severe weather outlook during this timeframe.

in terms of temperatures, daily afternoon highs will range between
the mid 70s to low 80s. overnight lows in the 60s each night which
may near or break record warm overnight low temperatures for a few
observation sites in the region, particularly monday night through
wednesday night.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
mvfr/ifr conditions in lingering low stratus and patchy mist/fog
will persist at most terminals through the overnight hours
before conditions improve to vfr at all terminals near or
shortly after 12z. from there, vfr will persist through the
remainder of the taf period. winds will be out of the
north/northeast at 10 knots or less through the daytime hours
today, although easterly winds are more likely at ktol/kfdy.
winds will become light and variable at eastern terminals by 00z
tonight.

outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are expected in
periodic showers and thunderstorms sunday night through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
north/northeast winds 10 knots or less are expected on lake erie
today with light and variable flow developing this evening.
winds become southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots by sunday morning
before shifting to the southwest and increasing to 10 to 20
knots sunday night into monday. winds in the open waters may
approach 25 knots sunday night. periods of elevated southwest
winds to 20 knots are likely through mid-week and small craft
advisories may need to be considered if winds/waves trend
higher, especially late sunday into monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt sat apr 11 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures today with dry weather persisting.

- high confidence remains in transition to much above normal
temperatures for second half of the weekend through most of
next work week.

- isolated to scattered showers (20-40% coverage) especially
late this evening into the overnight hours. showers become
likely (60-80%) sunday night with a few isolated storms across
lower michigan possible.

- chances of storms continue monday, but tuesday and wednesday
are being monitored for the potential of more organized
thunderstorms that could be strong to severe.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 338 am edt sat apr 11 2026

a broad 1030 mb high dominates the regional weather this morning,
and this high will shift to the eastern great lakes this afternoon.
a few pockets of patchy shallow fog have developed, one closer to
lake michigan where shallow marine layer influence may be at play
and also co-located with slightly better rainfall amounts yesterday
morning. weak easterly flow off eastern great lakes has also been
conducive for some patchy fog confined mainly to southeast
lower michigan. through daybreak, far ne in/sc lower michigan
along with areas closer to lake michigan should continue to be
focal points for better shallow fog development.

otherwise today, large scale subsidence downstream of mid level
ridge axis building into the area will provide continued dry
weather. some mid level warm advection cloudiness is expected to
overspread the area this afternoon, but should not have a large
impact on high temperatures this afternoon. little change made to
previous forecast with seasonable high temps from mid 50s nw to mid
60s s/sw.

for tonight, upper level ridge axis will shift across ohio river
valley/eastern great lakes which will make the local area more
susceptible to several weak embedded short waves in southwest
upper flow from the plains. backing low level winds will result
in northward advection of the low level front that stalled south
of the area yesterday. short term guidance 300k isentropic
progs suggest strongest isentropic upglide north of the us 6
corridor tonight with better moisture axis on this surface from
the southern plains through nw in/sw lower michigan. previous
forecast low-mid chance pops (20-40%) still appear reasonable.
given moisture advection is primarily elevated in nature,
thunder potential appears quite low with forecast soundings
depicting potential of some very weak elevated instability
across southern lower michigan.

low level southwest flow will strengthen for sunday as upper low
slowly meanders across northern ca while a stronger lead short wave
ejects northeast from north texas and shears northeast to the
southern great lakes sunday night. good mixing in this broad
southwest flow setup and warm front lifting north of the area in the
morning will set up windy and unseasonably warm conditions
sunday with highs expected in mid-upper 70s. rain chances will
increase (60-80%) sunday night as aforementioned southern plains
mid level wave ejects to the northeast. with weak mid level
lapse rates likely during this period, thunder potential still
appears on the low side and will keep slight chance thunder
going. rainfall amounts with this initial system sunday night
are not expected to have a significant hydro impact, but
potential does exist of 0.25"+ rainfall amounts from nw in/sw
lower michigan where axis of better low/mid level moisture is
expected.

confidence remains high in an extended period of much above normal
temperatures through next work week as longwave pattern remains
relatively stable with western conus troughing/eastern conus
ridging. this pattern should be conducive for several storm chances
monday through wednesday, but rather disjointed nature of
evolution of the west coast upper low and its dampening nature
as it shifts across central conus as it encounters stubborn
eastern conus mean upper ridging lead to low confidence in day
to day details regarding extent of this potential for each
individual forecast period. initial frontal placement and
favored mid level short wave track on monday may be far enough
north/northwest to keep shower/storm chances locally low through
monday night. some indications in guidance that plume of
steeper mid level lapse rates should be impinging on western
great lakes monday however. areas along/north of us 6 have been
placed in marginal severe risk monday, with nw in into sw lower
mi likely with the greatest risk of isolated strong/severe
storms based on expected orientation of instability axis.
tuesday and wednesday still appear to feature best chances of
storms (some strong/severe potential) with better chances of
suppression of synoptic front to the southern great lakes.
wednesday`s chances are of a bit lower confidence in comparison
to tuesday but shearing nature of the upper forcing may allow
for slow enough evolution of sfc trough to keep convective
chances into wednesday afternoon/evening.

no intrusions of significantly cooler air are expected through
the work week, and medium range guidance is in general
agreement of next pacific trough digging across western conus
thursday. however, gfs/ec deterministic/ensemble solutions
exhibit a large degree of spread in progression of this next
upper trough which make timing of additional storm chances post-
thursday of low confidence. it does appear a trend to cooler
temperatures is reasonable heading toward the end of this
forecast valid period next weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 640 am edt sat apr 11 2026

northeasterly low level flow associated with incoming low level
ridge axis has promoted some expanding stratus this morning
across northwest ohio. latest satellite trends/surface
observations do indicate steady westward advancement to kfwa of
some mvfr cigs around 2k feet early this morning. some ifr/lifr
conditions are currently being reported across portions of nw
ohio, but current expectation is for these lower end conditions
to remain east of kfwa this morning. low clouds should scatter
mid-late morning and will be replaced by increasing warm
advection induced mid level cloud cover this afternoon/evening.
winds will gradually veer southeasterly today with the
progression of the sfc high, with speeds likely remaining in the
5 to 10 knot range tonight as tightening pressure gradient with
the departing high partially offsets less mixing. for tonight,
a weak mid level short wave kicking out of kansas today will be
associated with a northward return of the boundary to the
south. there could be just enough elevated moisture return for
some scattered showers to affect ksbn late this period, but
confidence is too low for anything more than a prob30 at this
time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
654 am edt sat apr 11 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool conditions will prevail today with plenty of sunshine.

- a significant warming trend begins sunday and persists
through much of the work week. this pattern will bring breezy
conditions and periodic chances of showers and strong thundestorms.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure building into the region this morning is clearing
skies quickly behind a patch of stratus pushing south through the
detroit area this morning. mbs. fnt, and ptk will all have skc to
start the morning with the detroit taf sites holding onto just a
mvfr sct deck for an hour or so. northeasterly flow off lake huron
was able to advect moisture under the strengthening inversion early
this morning which caused some patchy ground fog to develop south of
mbs and around fnt which will burn off quickly this morning. will
hold onto an hour tempo for br at fnt to start the forecast. little
concern the rest of the day until elevated moisture lifts into the
region tonight which could spread some light rain across the taf
sites later tonight. will cover with prob30 groups mostly for now
until we see the strength of the low level dry air and how long it
can evaporate the falling moisture.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings below 5000 ft today. moderate later tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 am edt sat apr 11 2026

discussion...

sfc high pressure around 1033mb will become centered over se mi by
12z and will slowly drift east today, associated with a short wave
mid level ridge axis. some lingering strato cu may persist across
portions of the area into the morning, tucked under a deep
subsidence inversion. diurnal heating within broad mid level
subsidence and a dry ambient airmass will provide ample afternoon
sunshine. subsidence in the mid levels and a residual shallow cold
airmass will limit daytime mixing depths to around 4k feet per rap
soundings. this will warrant afternoon highs in the mid 50s, with
some cooler readings along the lakeshores.

a strong warm air advection pattern will commence across the upper
midwest and great lakes region tonight into monday. enhanced
convergence along the nose of the low level jet tonight into early
sunday morning will be focussed across the northern great lakes.
this is where rainfall chances will be highest. mid level warm air
advection and moist isentropic ascent will still affect se mi
overnight into sunday morning. residual low level dry air will limit
the coverage of showers during the overnight, especially across the
south. the lead low level moist axis will then be advection across
se mi sunday morning, sustaining a chance for showers. low level
isentropic ascent is forecast to be more persistent across the
saginaw valley and thumb region, supporting high rain chances in this
area. the surface warm sector will lift northward into se mi during
the day sunday. model soundings and probabolistic guidance strongly
supports highs well into the 70s in the warm sector. there is some
variance among the model suite and their ensembles as to how quickly
the warm sector expands into the thumb and saginaw valley regions,
warranting lower forecast highs north of the i-69 corridor. 30 to 40
knot winds within the well mixed warm sector will warrant windy
conditions sunday. probabolistic guidance suggest a good potential
for gusts to hit 40 mph south of the i-69 corridor, lower across the
north given the likelihood of a later arrival of the warm sector.

respectable model agrement indicates a mid level short wave impulse
and enhanced low level convergence rippling across lower mi sunday
night into monday morning, this will warrant high chances for
showers. a reinforcing shot of warm and moist air is then forecast to
arrive monday, with deep layer southwest flow sustaining seasonally
warm and humid air through at least mid week. ensemble spread with
respect to timing mid level short wave features and surface fronts
leads to uncertainty as to coverage and timing of convection this far
out in the forecast. forecast instability parameters combined with
strong wind fields overhead will raise the risk of severe convection
through the period. with ample deep layer moisture and the liklihood
of slow moving frontal systems, episodes of heavy convective rainfall
may also be of concern next week.

marine...

high pressure centers over lower michigan today ensuring dry
conditions with weak winds, at or below 10 knots. the stable system
exits east this evening, with return flow eventually flipping winds
south-southeasterly with gradual gradient constriction. active
weather returns sunday morning with gusty showers moving in ahead of
a decaying line of nocturnal thunderstorms. locally higher winds and
waves are possible as convection works across the huron basin.
several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the week due to a series of troughs, low pressure
systems, and fronts. potential still exists for gusts to gales late
sunday into monday, with the main area of concern being portions of
southern lake huron. it is possible that the stronger gusts
extend further south into lake st. clair and western erie.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...sc
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.