Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
615 am est mon jan 12 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing on accumulating snowfall with potential
travel impacts from wednesday afternoon to thursday evening.
temperatures are trending colder this weekend with single digit
lows and overnight wind chills below zero becoming more likely.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and breezy conditions are expected on
tuesday.

2) rain will transition to snow wednesday afternoon and evening,
allowing for travel impacts to the evening commute. hazardous
winter conditions will continue through thursday evening with
additional widespread snow accumulation.

3) weekend weather pattern continues to trend colder with more
snow possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
after a relatively quiet weather day today with high pressure
extending into the region, a warm front will enter for tuesday.
this front will allow for temperatures to warm back into the
40s. in the warm sector of this system, some amount of a 40 to
50 kt low level jet will mix down to the surface. this will
allow for southwest wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph during the
afternoon hours. overall, impacts from the wind should be
limited and conditions should stay below wind advisory limits.

key message 2...
the main story for the forecast this morning will be a strong
cold front that will enter the area on wednesday. a large upper
trough with several shortwaves embedded will enter the great
lakes region, starting tuesday evening. the initial wave will
allow for rain across the area tuesday night into wednesday. the
main upper level wave will support a strong cold front on
wednesday afternoon and evening and will allow for an abrupt
transition from rain to snow, likely in time for the wednesday
evening commute. the combination of the sudden change to snow
with the potential for half inch to one inch snowfall rates,
temperatures plunging from the lower 40s to upper 20s, and
surface/pavement temperatures likely starting above freezing
to quickly falling below freezing could allow for hazardous
travel conditions across the region.

behind this initial cold frontal passage, the upper trough will
slow and consolidate into a closed low over the area, allowing
for low pressure to develop over the central appalachians
wednesday night. the deformation zone of this low will be in
close proximity of the eastern forecast area and will bear some
watching, as any westward deviation could become problematic for
a period of heavy snow on wednesday night into thursday.
regardless of the evolution of this low, the upper low will
allow for a reinforcing cold front through the area, which
should allow for another round of snow for the whole area on
wednesday night into thursday with additional lake enhancement
for the northern half of the area. confidence is increasing in
several inches of snow for the entire area from wednesday
afternoon through thursday evening with the need for at least a
winter weather advisory increasing with every forecast cycle.

key message 3...
after a brief break in action on friday, another system will
enter for the weekend. this system will have the support of an
upper trough that will originate over northern canada and carry
south some arctic air into the great lakes region. the timing
of the main low pressure system will be on saturday with
periods of snow that will then transition into lake effect snow
on sunday. there is low confidence on total snowfall in the
region right now but at least light accumulations are likely
everywhere with higher amounts in ne oh/nw pa. the bigger story
and the higher confidence portion of this system will be
temperatures and wind chills. highs on sunday and monday will
barely touch the 20 degree mark and low temperatures on
saturday night will be in the teens with single digits sunday
and monday nights. winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts will
lead to wind chills in the single digits during the day and
below zero overnight. early trends in the forecast are closer
toward cold weather headlines.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
a mix bag of mvfr and vfr conditions will gradually improve to
all vfr throughout this morning as high pressure builds over the
area. this high will allow for dry and breezy conditions across
the area today. southwest winds of 12-15 knots with gusts up to
25 knots are possible through 00z before calming to 5-11 knots
overnight.

outlook...non-vfr becoming more likely in rain tuesday night
into wednesday. non-vfr will continue into thursday as rain
transitions to snow late wednesday. non-vfr may return in snow
showers on friday.

&&

.marine...
unsettled marine conditions are expected throughout this week as an
active weather pattern continues to influence the region. today,
high pressure centered near the gulf coast will gradually nudge
north towards the region. this couple with a low pressure moving
east across northern canada will allow for an increased gradient
across lake erie which will allow southwest winds to increase to 20-
30 knots across lake erie. models have trended up with winds across
the eastern basin with sustained gale force winds expected through
this afternoon. given the hazardous marine conditions, the entire
lakeshore has a small craft advisory through this afternoon with the
eastern basin being upgraded to a gale warning beginning at 7am
local time. winds will quickly weaken after 7pm tonight to be some
the southwest at 10-20 knots.

these calmer conditions will be short lived as another robust low
pressure system moves across the northern great lakes tuesday into
wednesday. this system will initially increase southwest winds to 20-
30 knots on tuesday afternoon with a brief lull early wednesday
morning as the trough axis shifts east. then, by wednesday afternoon
winds will back behind a cold front and once again ramp up to be
sustained from the north-northwest at 20-30 knots. this period of
onshore flow will allow for the larger waves to develop with waves
up to 8 feet possible across the central basin. this period will
likely need additional marine headlines. by friday, winds continue
to weaken before another potential robust system moves through this
weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lez149.
gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez149-169.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
622 am est mon jan 12 2026

.key messages...

- dry and breezy today and tonight with variable cloud cover.
highs will be in the upper 30s and low 40s, then fall into the
low 30s late tonight.

- breezy with chances (20-40%) for light rain tuesday into
tuesday night. highs will be in the mid to upper 40s. rain may
mix with snow late tuesday night north of us 24 as
temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

- widespread system snow is likely wednesday into wednesday
evening, mixing with rain at times (especially along and
south of us 24) early. snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
possible inland from lake michigan.

- lake effect snow will develop wednesday and persist into
thursday for north- northwest wind favored snowbelts. it`s
possible that locations in southern berrien and la porte
counties see greater than 4 inches of accumulation.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 620 am est mon jan 12 2026

fairly quiet weather for the short term period, with mainly breezy
south-southwest winds and light rain/snow chances to contend with
through tuesday night. dry and mild today with our cwa situated
between surface high pressure to our south and a weak trough to the
north. zonal/weakly cyclonic flow aloft today persists through early
tuesday, with a shortwave/surface trough pinwheeling around a low
pressure system over northern ontario during the afternoon and
evening. have 20-40% chances for rain showers with the trough
passage, though there is high variability among model solutions with
regards to whether or not our cwa sees any precipitation (especially
tuesday night behind the wave). many models keep the precipitation
chances further north-barely skirting the northern periphery of our
michigan counties-and others bring the precip closer to us 30,
diving southeastward briefly into lima, oh tuesday evening. have the
best chances north of us 6 tue afternoon/evening before the deeper
trough axis arrives overnight. highs temps today will be in the
upper 30s and 40s, then rise into the mid-upper 40s for tuesday.

tuesday night into wednesday morning a deeper upper level trough
(cut off low possibly at this point) drops from western upper mi
into northern/central lake michigan. there may be a lull in
precipitation tuesday night before this feature arrives, then we see
30-60 percent chances late/towards wed am. it may start out
initially as rain depending on the timing of the wave-then mix with
a bit of snow towards wed am. we`ll see temperatures start out in
the mid-to upper 30s south of us 24 wednesday, and the low to mid
30s north. by late wednesday evening, a deep upper level trough
encompasses the entire eastern conus-with the closed low centered
right over lower mi/northern in/nw oh. by thursday morning, the
feature is centered around nw oh into lake erie--leaving our cwa in
cold air advection/n-nw flow. so as we continue through the day
wednesday, temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 20s and low
30s, then drop into the single digits and teens by thursday morning.
any lingering rain will transition to snow from northwest to
southeast through the day. around 1-2 inches of snow is likely for
most areas by thursday morning (some possibly up to 3" depending on
exactly where the low moves and also how quickly the rain/snow
transition occurs).

outside of the more widespread system rain/snow mix, lake
enhancement begins to take hold with the ongoing cold air advection
over lake michigan. as the low shifts eastward overnight into
thursday, we have large scale cyclonic flow over the great lakes,
with the winds out of the n-nw from lake superior down the long axis
of lake michigan. 850mb temps drop to around -17c--which gives us
delta t`s of 18 degrees (lake mi around 1c); and 0-1km delta theta
e`s around -3 to -6 (depending on the model)...which gives us plenty
of instability to work with. much of the lift is within a saturated
dgz wednesday night into thursday, and inversion heights thursday
night around 7-8kft. in other words-if the pattern occurs as most of
the guidance forecasts--someone along lake mi is going to see a
period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow. guidance is conflicted
as to whether or not winds will be more northerly or northwesterly---
so exactly where the more single dominant band eventually sets up is
still in question. the current forecast has winds more northerly
wednesday afternoon into early thursday afternoon--then shifting
northwest as subsidence builds in towards wed evening (3-4kft
inversion heights by 7 pm thu eve). if this holds, the more dominant
band will most likely set up in la porte and southern berrien county
(with a decent inland extent into starke co in). probabilities for
greater than 4 inches of snow in this area are around 75-80 percent,
with potential for greater than 6" of snow at around 35-45 percent.
the current forecast for wednesday into thursday morning (not
including the day-qpf doesn`t go out that far), has accumulations of
3-6" in laporte/southern berrien (even into northern starke, in),
with amounts around 2-4" possible for northern berrien county and
areas further inland near the lakeshore. if it`s a more
northwesterly band orientation, northern la porte and more of
southern berrien county will see the bulk of the snowfall. it could
be impactful to travel (especially for the thu am/thu pm commutes),
with north-northwest winds potentially gusting up to around 30-35
mph at times-leading to blowing and drifting.

another upper level low drops in friday into the weekend, which will
bring us potential for additional snow accumulations. it will be
cold, with highs in the 20s and low 30s dropping towards the teens
and low 20s sun/mon. overnight lows will be in the single digits and
teens. blustery winds at times could lead to wind chills below zero,
especially saturday night/sun am and sunday night/mon am.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 534 am est mon jan 12 2026

prevailing vfr and dry conditions through the taf period. breezy
southwest winds around 15 knots with higher gusts through the
day before easing back after sunset.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...norman

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
605 am est mon jan 12 2026

.key messages...

- a good chance of rain tuesday.

- accumulating snow wednesday and wednesday night as arctic air
moves into the region.

- much colder late this week and into next weekend. minimum morning
wind chill around zero degrees.

- periodic chances for snow will exist friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

aggressive surge of dry air this morning has dislodged much of the
stratus deck that lingered across the airspace overnight. lead edge
of the dry air has yet to reach mbs, but is on track to reach the
terminal around 12z. observations have been more aggressive with the
clearing than models, so do think mbs will see some scattering
through the morning. diurnal mixing then restablishes the cloud deck
by late morning. outside of mbs, vfr conditions persist through the
taf period. high pressure over se conus ensures prevailing southwest
flow. breezy conditions are expected with gusts around 25 knots
until this evening. thickening mid and high cloud fill in this
evening in advance of the next clipper system which tracks toward
northern lower michigan tuesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 401 am est mon jan 12 2026

discussion...

weak clipper system glancing across the state early this morning
within the background of modest low-mid level warm air advection.
this brief window of ascent encountering a very dry profile overall,
lending to a high coverage of virga as associated mid level cloud
increases coverage. a few flurries or brief light snow showers still
plausible yet this morning across mainly the thumb. otherwise,
weakly confluent mid level northwest flow atop a warming thermal
profile sustains a high degree of stability and ensures benign
conditions over the next 24 hours. moderating thermal profile
boosted by a firm southwest gradient, with some gustiness up to 30
mph. late day highs arriving in the mid to upper 30s. sustained waa
as high cloud thickens will maintain milder conditions overnight.

southern extension of a more dynamic mid level wave of north pacific
origin arrives tuesday. improvement in moisture quality and depth as
isentropic ascent peaks along the lead edge of the inbound height
fall gradient will provide the greatest potential for precipitation
production starting early in the day north and expanding southeast
into the afternoon. assessment of sounding data and projection of
low level thermal trends point to mainly rain as the precipitation
type, with limited potential for some melting snow to mix in should
precip onset arrive early enough in the day across the north.
mildest conditions of the forecast period as daylight 850 mb temps
peak at 4-5c, translating into highs of upper 30s to mid 40s. once
again, some gustiness of sustained southwest wind up to 30 mph. an
initial weaker phase of cold air advection emerges tuesday night as
mid level northwest flow deepens with time. lingering lower end
shower potential overnight, as additional pva works to
capitalize on a moistening cyclonic flow and steeper lapse rates.

a more sizable pattern shift will develop for the late week period
and continue through next weekend, as high amplitude longwave
troughing takes residence across much of the conus downstream of an
anomalously strong west coast upper ridge. the net result will be
an extended stretch of below average temperatures, with periodic
snowfall chances within a very active pattern. southward propagating
arctic lobe to lead this transition wednesday and wed night. notable
24 hour drop in temperature of around 20 degrees during this time
under pronounced cold air advection. high probability of snow as a
focused area of upward vertical motion tied to the frontal zone and
trailing mid level vort max engage a deeper layer of supersaturation
with respect to ice inside the dgz. deep northerly flow within the
immediate wake will then provide a lake response off lake huron
overnight. magnitude and duration of any lake effect uncertain at
this stage, as the drying mid level influence by the inbound arctic
environment may place a lower ceiling on prospective overlake
equilibrium heights.

arctic air entrenched to finish the week. minimum wind chill both
thu and fri mornings around zero degrees. additional shortwave
energy projected to dive southeast into the mean trough friday into
the weekend. some consolidation of pv as the height falls gradually spill
into the great lakes will bring unsettled conditions at times, but
with a high degree of uncertainty as to timing and magnitude of
possible snowfall episodes. forecast will continue to highlight a
broad chance for snow throughout this period at this stage.

marine...

a somewhat active pattern continues for the next several days as a
weak trough moves through northern lake huron. this has led to a
slight uptick in gradient winds (near 25 knots) early this morning,
backing southwesterly by sunrise. waves remain elevated for the
nearshore waters along the tip of the thumb, thus small craft
advisories remain in effect until this evening. modest flow persists
tuesday and turns southerly ahead of the next clipper system. this
could lead to extensions and/or expansions of small craft advisories
for portions of the southern lake huron nearshores, but gusts should
hold below gales across the waterways. the low then slowly pivots
through the region tuesday night into wednesday, eventually forcing
a cold frontal passage. potential exists for a period of post-
frontal gales late wednesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...mr
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.