Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
959
fxus61 kcle 282315
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
715 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

.what has changed...
temperatures continue to trend slightly higher for early to mid-next
week.

&&

.key messages...
1) temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, becoming
above-average by early to mid-next week. heat headlines are
possible.

2) an unsettled weather pattern will develop across the great lakes
early to mid-next week, resulting in increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. strong storms and heavy rainfall are
possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a large upper-level ridge will build east across much of the
central and eastern conus by the end of the weekend into mid-
next week. at the surface, a warm front will lift northeast
through the area late sunday into monday, ushering in above-
average temperatures across the region. highs in the mid to
upper 80s on sunday will increase further into the upper 80s to
lower 90s by monday, and perhaps reaching the mid-90s in some
spots by tuesday or wednesday with the ridge axis overhead,
yielding heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 at times. all
this said, it is still not a slam-dunk heat event given
increasing chances for showers, storms, and residual cloud cover
during this same time period. will continue to watch trends
over the next couple of days.

key message 2...
an unsettled weather pattern will develop across the great lakes
by the end of the weekend into mid-next week as several mid-
level shortwaves track east along the upper-level ridge axis,
providing increased flow needed to support organized convection.

the first period of concern will be sunday night into monday
behind the warm front as guidance favors the development of a
complex of showers and storms generally moving southeast through
the central and eastern great lakes. this appears to be a
glancing blow at this time, mainly across far northeast ohio or
northwest pennsylvania. precipitation chances have generally
trended lower for tuesday with the ridge axis overhead with
chances increasing again by tuesday night through wednesday as a
strong upper-level trough swings east through the upper great
lakes. in addition, anomalously-high pwats in excess of 1.80
inches could lead to torrential rainfall and isolated flash
flooding where storms persist. still quite a bit of uncertainty
with regards to shower and thunderstorm timing and coverage,
though given the favorable environmental shear in place, the
chance for strong to severe storms remains possible. will
continue to monitor trends.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
clear/vfr tonight with high pressure in control. few cumulus
fl045, sct cirrus saturday. winds under 12kts.

outlook...mainly vfr, but with patchy non-vfr possible in
fog/mist early in the mornings on saturday and sunday.

&&

.marine...
northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots will decrease overnight and
veer to southerly. a stretch of good marine conditions is
expected through monday with winds of generally 10 knots or
less. southwesterly winds will increase into the 10-15 knot
range tuesday and wednesday. there is a low end threat of
thunderstorms beginning sunday night and peaking on wednesday.
thunderstorms can result in erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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068
fxus63 kiwx 282305
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
705 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry and trending warmer this weekend.

- heat and humidity increases into next week with afternoon heat
indices expected to reach well into the 90s for many.

- a primarily dry pattern should continue into at least the first
half of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 120 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

quiet, pleasant weather will persist into this weekend as high
pressure shifts off to the east and the mid level flow becomes
increasingly zonal with little in the way of low level moisture
advection or forcing. low level flow will turn more to the south-
southwest in this regime over the weekend allowing for a gradual
warming trend. several weak perturbations in the height field
likely track east into the great lakes, one late tonight, and
then another saturday afternoon into saturday night. convection
on the nose of a llj and developing mucape axis likely remains
to the northwest of the area with the main impact locally being
an increase in mid-high level clouds with each passing wave.
with that said, cannot rule out decaying elevated showers
surviving into northern zones at some point saturday night or
sunday morning.

building heat and humidity then becomes the story next week, at
least monday through wednesday, as a ~595 dm upper ridge at 500 mb
flexes north into the ohio valley and southern great lakes. current
projections are for afternoon heat indices to reach well into the
90s each day, especially across the southern half of the forecast
area where ridge topping convective cloud debris is less likely to
spill over. warm mid level profiles should put a lid on any surface
based convection for the bulk of these periods, though cannot rule
out convective outflow or elevated convection north of the us 30
corridor, especially toward the middle of the week. models then
diverge for the second half of the week on whether the ridging
breaks down enough to send a frontal boundary either into or
through the area with low chances (20-30%) for showers/storms
and slightly cooler temps.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 705 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

surface high pressure slowly drifts east this period but low
levels remain dry and vfr conditions will persist. low surface
dewpoints and a nonzero gradient wind will likely preclude any
br development tonight, especially since it did not occur the
previous nights. mid/upper level clouds increase on saturday as
the next trough approaches but ceilings will remain well above
5 kft.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
913
fxus63 kdtx 282248
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
648 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures with dry weather tonight through saturday.

- increasing chances for showers and storms saturday night and
sunday continuing through early next week.

- a new round of heat and humidity builds for the early to mid week
period.

&&

.aviation...

subtle mid level moisture advection this afternoon contributed to
some expansion of mid level clouds (based above 6k feet). the easing
and departure of this mid level moisture combined with the loss of
diurnal heating will contribute to a decrease in cloud cover during
the evening hours. the influence of a weak gradient flow as a result
of sfc high pressure anchored over the eastern great lakes will
sustain light winds through daybreak saturday. an increasing south
gradient on friday will lead to light winds. upstream warm air
advection will drive ample mid and high clouds into the region in
the afternoon. while there may be some diurnal cloud development,
available guidance strongly supports vfr conditions through the day
saturday.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

discussion...

afternoon cumulus is mixed with a mid level cloud component tied to
moisture transport aloft while surface high pressure is otherwise
the primary weather influence across lower mi today. the high
pressure air mass combined with the mix of clouds and sun are
producing pleasant conditions across the region that continue
tonight. cloud production will be variable as mid level flow remains
weak and theta-e disorganized, however periods of clear sky have
adequate duration for enough cooling to reach low temperatures in
the mid to upper 50s outside of metro detroit. beside the clouds, an
uptick in south wind occurs before sunrise which is just enough to
keep readings a few degrees warmer than this morning, which even saw
some 40s in the typically cooler locations around the region.

high pressure departs to the atlantic coast while the next low
pressure system organizes across the high plains during saturday.
these are the primary surface weather elements connected by the
upper jet spanning the canadian border from montana to the northern
great lakes. it`s the upper jet that boosts moisture transport with
much farther eastward reach into lower mi compared to the warm front
from late saturday through saturday night. this results in a renewed
cloud increase during the afternoon and an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms saturday night into sunday morning.
convective potential ramps up considerably on low level jet strength
in the northern plains and upper midwest tonight and again saturday
night as the 850-700 mb theta-e ridge builds west to east into lower
mi. the inbound moisture axis helps improve prospects that
convective remnants survive into se mi by sunday morning. clouds and
showers then linger during the day as the warm front moves in ahead
of the plains to midwest low pressure system. the preferred forecast
leans toward higher pops and lower temperatures compared to nbm to
finish the weekend.

today`s 12z deterministic/ai/ensemble means show the northward
progress of the surface warm front is still a forecast focus for
monday. consensus slightly favors the front moving into the northern
great lakes followed by a new round of heat and humidity that builds
into at least the southern part of lower mi for the early week
period.

marine...

high pressure in place through the day maintaining light winds and
dry weather. influence of said high wanes saturday as it shifts to
the northeast with the central great lakes holding on its
westernmost fringe. this allows for modest southwest winds to
develop during the day with gusts holding aob 20kts, save for
central lake huron where favorable fetch could allow for up to
25kts. active pattern returns by sunday as developing low pressure
over the northern plains lifts a warm front through the area
ushering in a more humid airmass leading numerous shower/storm
chances into the new work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.