Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
420
fxus61 kcle 251105
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
705 am edt sat apr 25 2026

.what has changed...
pops linger a touch longer saturday morning. a bit cooler sunday in
the far western zones with a ne wind off of chilly lake erie. early
next week cold frontal passage will be slowed down into the tuesday
time frame.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain exits with cooler weather and high pressure influences make the
rest of the weekend dry.

2) a cold front moves through with the next chances for convection
monday night and tuesday, followed by a cooler pattern through the
end of the week with dominant upper level low pressure in place.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper trough/frontal system exits this morning followed by surface
high pressure influences and mid/upper level ridging into sunday.
drier weather, and for sunday, the orientation of the surface
ridging will create northeasterly winds off of lake erie, and
ultimately a temperature profile of cooler conditions from western
cuyahoga to toledo and a couple of counties inland for the western
cwa. column pretty dry through the weekend period upon frontal exit,
and into monday finally will get back into 850mb temperature
increases ahead of the next frontal system. should be in the 70s
area wide monday, or very close to it, perhaps coming a couple
degrees short for some of the nw pa locations.

key message 2...
low pressure system deepens over the central plains region tracking
northeastward into the northern great lakes monday into tuesday,
with the next cold front slated to move through the cwa. severe
threat could be ramped up a bit from the previous system moving
through this morning with a much more pronounced low level jet and
increasing 0-6km bulk shear values. will need to better assess other
parameters such as instability in coming forecast runs, but decent
confidence as of right now in convective weather for late monday
night into tuesday. looking at the broader scale picture, after that
cold front exits, another surface low brings precipitation chances
from the southwest tuesday night into wednesday. in the meantime,
upper level low pressure drops into the great lakes and could be at
risk of cutting off, translating to a period of below normal
temperatures for the region late in the week and heading into next
weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
low pressure and an associated cold front will move southeast
across the area this morning. rain is expected along the cold
front, diminishing west to east by mid-day, with isolated
showers possible. ceilings will deteriorate behind the front,
with areawide ifr and localized lifr expected. conditions
improve to mvfr during the afternoon saturday, with pockets of
ifr persisting along and near the lakeshore. north to northwest
winds 10-14 knots will persist during the day saturday.

outlook...non-vfr conditions persist overnight saturday through
sunday morning, with vfr conditions expected sunday afternoon
through monday morning. non-vfr conditions return with showers
and thunderstorms monday night through wednesday morning.

&&

.marine...
a cold front moving east overnight will shift winds north-
northeast with speeds of 5-10 knots. northerly winds will
increase across the central and eastern basin saturday and
saturday night, with winds between 10 to 15 knots and waves 2-4
feet. a strong low pressure system moves through the western
great lakes region for the start of next week, and winds will
increase to 15-20 knots for a period of time late monday into
tuesday. a a small craft advisory may be needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 250951
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
551 am edt sat apr 25 2026

.key messages...

- mild and dry this weekend with highs from around 65 to 70.

- rain and thunderstorms late monday into monday night. all
severe weather hazards possible.

- cooler wednesday through saturday with highs close to 60
degrees. frost possible by friday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 am edt sat apr 25 2026

cooler and somewhat drier air was spreading into indiana from
the northwest. an area of fog was dense in spots had formed in
a relatively narrow boundary behind the clearing skies and where
winds had become light over northern indiana. the fog is likely
to persist past daybreak until about mid morning when the
relatively shallow radiation inversion mixes out. an upper level
ridge will build north across the ohio river valley in response
to upstream energy amplifying an upstream trof. this upper level
ridge will help temperatures rise much above north into the 70s
reaching near 80 degrees in areas south of highway 30.

an active pattern will unfold late monday into into monday night
as the upper level ridge weakens and as a strong upper level
trof approaches the forecast area. a band of strong mid level
winds reaching 70 kts at 700 mb will provide a setting for the
potential for severe thunderstorms, especially west of highway
31. bufkit parameters indicate max cape of 777 j/kg at ft wayne.
precipitable water values reach 1.57 max monday evening. a study
by lower mississippi rfc (sept 2015) indicated these values
were in the 99th percentile for northern indiana and northwest
ohio during the month of april. these high values indicate
precipitation rates could easily top 3"/hr.

showers and isolated thunderstorms should end late tuesday night
followed by clearing skies and much cooler weather. there is
frost potential thursday night through saturday night as
temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 550 am edt sat apr 25 2026

two areas of stratus currently pushing south and will impact the
terminals through the morning. brief ifr likely at kfwa while
ksbn will likely stay mvfr (though possibly fuel-alternate). the
stratus should dissipate around 14z as diurnal mixes ramps up,
though mvfr ceilings may last slightly longer. vfr expected the
rest of the period with light northerly winds veering east
tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
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fxus63 kdtx 251105
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
705 am edt sat apr 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather and cooler but seasonable temperatures this weekend.

- showers and thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

cooler northerly flow with moisture trapped under an inversion is
supporting a mix of mvfr/ifr low clouds and patchy fog this morning.
daytime mixing will try and lift ceilings to some degree with patchy
fog ending. latest model data wants to hold onto these mvfr clouds
through much of the taf period across the south. will stretch mvfr
ceilings further into tonight for the metro terminals. there will be
some clearing across the north towards 00z as a high pressure works
to erode these clouds. winds remain generally light at around 10
knots or less and veer towards the northeast this afternoon. the
northeast winds do bring opportunity for some gusts to around 20
knots at mbs.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 408 am edt sat apr 25 2026

discussion...

early morning sfc analysis shows an occluded front bisecting
southeast mi, extending southeast from stalled parent low pressure
over southern sk. this front connects to weak low pressure migrating
from metro detroit into the upper ohio valley, with patchy fog and
stratus wrapping around this system. eventually the front becomes
orphaned off into a remnant trough as mid-level shortwave ridging
builds overhead today. the result will be a strengthening inversion
that traps abundant low-level moisture, with morning fog mixing out
into the thick stratus layer which holds in place through the day.
persistent north wind feeds cooler air beneath the inversion and
limits highs to the 50s for most of the area, or near the seasonal
average. low 60s will still be achievable for the i-94 corridor and
areas south, while the lake huron shoreline stays cooler in the
upper 40s. the stratus shows some potential for scattering in the
saginaw valley and thumb by late afternoon as drier air with origins
over southern ontario spreads across lake huron.

the mid-level ridge crests overhead tonight into sunday, ensuring
stable and dry conditions prevail through the weekend. the drier air
from ontario gains more ground which favors a lower cloud fraction
by sunday morning, but easterly flow off western lake erie likely
holds some stratus in the south - at least early before daytime
mixing helps erode this cloud too. the boost in insolation helps
temperatures take a step up into the lower to mid 60s.

the dry and stable weather continues into monday with temperatures
taking another another step toward the upper 60s and lower 70s.
upstream, a potent shortwave will pass over the rockies and induce
cyclogenesis over the central plains. this low tracks from the
midwest into the northern great lakes monday night with deep layer
southerly flow advecting an arc of elevated moisture in overnight
into tuesday morning to fuel a round of convection. the peak in
synoptic ascent looks to occur after daybreak tuesday morning as the
negatively tilted trough passes overhead. a narrow warm sector
passing through the region brings a window for storms to become
surface-based with enough balance between marginal instability and
wind shear to support a low chance of isolated strong to severe
storms before the cold front sweeps through early afternoon.

longwave troughing progresses across central canada and descends
into the great lakes midweek. low confidence exists on timing of
individual systems as there will be several shorter wavelength
perturbations undergoing interactions during this period, but the
synoptic setup supports a period of cooler and occasionally
unsettled weather through late week.

marine...

departing low pressure early this morning sets up modest
northeasterly flow in its wake. while most of the region holds at or
below 20kts for peak wind, the long fetch and now `mild` water
temperatures likely support enhancement of winds funneling into the
saginaw bay. gusts look capable to peak in the mid to upper 20kt
range warranting a small craft advisory through the evening. high
pressure then expands over the great lakes this evening/overnight
gradually weakening winds. influence of said high holds through
early monday maintaining light winds and dry conditions to close out
the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.