Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
766
fxus61 kcle 081710
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
110 pm edt tue sep 8 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast package.

&&

.key messages...
1) a cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms wednesday
afternoon into wednesday night with a marginal risk for severe
weather.

2) high pressure will return for the end of the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure that is over the region today will push eastward
tonight. an upper level trough will move into the upper great
lakes region on wednesday. a cold front will push through the
great lakes and into the upper ohio valley late wednesday.
surface dewpoints will climb into the lower 70s by wednesday
afternoon. high temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s
on wednesday. 0-6km shear will increase to 40 to 45 knots and modest
instability will develop of 1000-2000 j/kg ahead of the cold
front late wednesday. there is a marginal risk for severe
storms ahead of the cold front with the main threat being
isolated damaging wind gusts. pw values will increase to around
2 inches which will support heavy downpours and localized heavy
rainfall possible. the time window for possible severe weather
will be between 4 pm and 10 pm. the cold front will slow down
as it moves into central ohio wednesday night. another weak area
of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary late
wednesday night into thursday with another round of rain likely,
especially for areas south of highway 30. the front and rain
chances will finally clear out of the area by thursday evening.


key message 2...
high pressure will build in over the great lakes and the upper
ohio valley friday and saturday. high temperatures will be in
the middle to upper 70s on friday and lower to middle 80s by
saturday. a weak cold front will try to move through the great
lakes region late sunday but stall out just north of our area.
warm and humid weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
the main message for aviation weather will be vfr conditions for
this taf update. scattered to broken high level clouds will be
in our skies with no impact to aviation. there will be a light
lake breeze at eri and cle this afternoon. otherwise, winds will
be from the south to southwest 5 to 10 knots through the period.
southwest winds will increase slightly for mfd, cle, cak, and
eri late wednesday morning and midday between 10 to 15 knots
with gusts around 20 knots possible.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday afternoon into thursday. some storms could contain
gusty winds wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.marine...
there will be a brief window for a lake breeze this afternoon
with a east-northeast wind 5 to 10 knots and a light chop of
waves around a foot. southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots tonight, becoming west-southwesterly ahead of a cold
front on wednesday 15 to 20 kts. marine zones offshore of
cleveland and eastward will see wave of 3 to 4 feet. a small
craft advisory may be needed for wednesday. a broken line of
storms are expected ahead of the cold front late wednesday.
winds northwesterly 10 to 15 knots are expected in the wake of
the cold front wednesday night through thursday night with wave
heights 1 to 3 feet. high pressure will build over the lake on
friday with light northeast winds 5 to 10 knots and waves of 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
032
fxus63 kiwx 081833
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
233 pm edt tue sep 8 2026

.key messages...

- a warm and more humid airmass will be in place into early
thursday. cloud cover and precipitation may cause large
variations in temperatures wednesday.

- there is a 40% to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms
wednesday through early thursday morning.

- breaking waves and currents are expected at southeast lake
michigan beaches on thursday.

- somewhat cooler and less humid friday into monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 233 pm edt tue sep 8 2026

low confidence forecast remains through thursday as models
continue to differ on finer details for temps and precip
chances, especially wednesday night. main cold front (much
cooler and less humid air) is located from minnesota to central
ne and is not expected to arrive till thursday. much of our
weather will hinge on pre-frontal troughs, leftover outflow
boundaries and subtle waves resulting in a lot of challenges on
coverage, timing and intensity.

area of showers and storms has persisted from central ia into
much of wi with only a slow eastward trend. cams vary on what
will be left of this area as it enters towards 12z wed.
regardless of what shape it starts, generally expected some
widely sct to sct showers and maybe a few storms to persist in a
somewhat unstable atmosphere. the marginal severe threat keys
in on the afternoon and evening hours when pockets of clearing
could allow for some increased instability to produce some gusty
storms. overall shear is lacking and lapse rates are rather
unimpressive so any gusts appear to be isolated at most. even
larger challenges exist where the best instability axis and
lingering boundaries setup wednesday night into early thursday.
overall trend has been moreso into central in resulting in a
continued southward trend to higher pops. wasn`t ready to
completely eliminate pops but did blend with previous forecast
to nudge down.

eventually the main front will arrive thursday into thursday
night and usher in an end to any precip and much more
comfortable conditions. the battle will then continue between
the sprawling upper ridge across the se states and another
deeper trough that will attempt to move in next week. for the
time being, no major swings in temperatures or high precip
chances.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1214 pm edt tue sep 8 2026

quiet weather continues throughout much of the taf forecast
period. southerly winds will be sustained between 5-10 kts
today, highest this evening when they begin to ramp up ahead of
an approaching upstream cold front. expect southerly winds
between 10-15 kts by daybreak wednesday with gusts to 20 kts
possible (especially at kfwa). scattered rain and storms should
arrive around 12z in far northwest indiana as the slow moving
cold front moves in. have added a prob30 group to ksbn
wednesday morning given potential for high end mvfr ceilings and
visibilities within any storms. kept kfwa completely dry as
confidence is high that rain/storms likely do not arrive until
the afternoon there.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
531
fxus63 kdtx 081848
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
248 pm edt tue sep 8 2026

.key messages...

- showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms tonight and
wednesday.

- dry weather with near-normal, pleasant temperatures
returns for thursday and friday.

&&

.discussion...

an upper level ridge axis (~591 dam at 500 mb) slides east through
the central great lakes this evening. height falls tonight/tomorrow
as a shortwave trough tracking through montana this afternoon moves
through lake superior. a moisture axis (pw values around 2 inches)
over the midwest to fold over/northeast into southern lower michigan
wednesday morning, with a cold front slowly tracking through
southeast michigan during the day. showers are likely, but clouds
and earlier timing likely limit instability, supporting only a
chance of thunderstorms. the far southeast section of the cwa (adg-
dtw-phn) stands the best chance of building up enough instability to
draw some concern for strong thunderstorms, as wind fields are
elevated (40 knots 850 mb). as such, gradient winds during the day
will increase ahead of the cold front, and local probabilistic
guidance suggesting wind gusts 25-30 mph. machine learning also
indicating a 2-5% percent chance of damaging winds over southern
monroe county, in line with the spc day 2 outlook. any marginally
severe chance will be dependent on later timing of activity.

just a modest cooldown is expected for thursday as 850 mb temps dip
back toward 10 c underneath drying northwest winds. fast pseudo-
zonal flow over northern conus with an upper level ridge arriving
friday should maintain dry weather into saturday morning before a
low chance of showers arrives for the second half of the weekend.
the amplitude of the trough swinging through varies amongst the
medium range models. none-the-less, euro ensembles support just a
modest cool down for sunday, with temperatures remaining slightly
above normal.

&&

.marine...

south turning southwesterly winds strengthen tonight into wednesday
as seasonably strong low pressure system tracks across southern
canada into hudson bay. while a gust or two two could reach entry-
level gales over central lake huron, winds are expected to peak
around 30kts. small craft advisories are in effect for the saginaw
bay/tip of the thumb through wednesday evening as a result. return
of a humid airmass back to the region will support shower and
thunderstorm chances for much of the day wednesday before the
attendant cold front crosses late evening. moderate northwesterly
flow follows for thursday however only a glancing shot of cold
advection and a rapidly diminishing gradient has high pressure
builds caps winds aob 30kts.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 146 pm edt tue sep 8 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail this afternoon and early evening with
ridging and strong anticyclonic flow trajectories in place. a +120kt
pacific upper level jet streak will push into the great lakes region
later today ramping up thetae and moisture advection across
southeast michigan. deepest moisture with upright frontal structure
will push into the area from north to south. decided to go with
tempo group between 8-12z at kmbs and kfnt. an axis of showers with
some potential for isolated thunderstorms is then expected to work
through all the terminals between 12-17z wednesday. mixed southwest
winds of 10 to 20 knots is expected wednesday.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast this evening.
low potential for thunderstorm activity 14-17z wednesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening.

* low for thunderstorms on wednesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-
422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.