Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
267
fxus61 kcle 232314
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
714 pm edt thu jul 23 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal low temperatures and mostly dry conditions will
continue through saturday.

2) shower and thunderstorm chances return sunday through
tuesday. confidence is increasing for a few stronger storms,
mainly on monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cool high pressure system will persist across the region
through saturday, allowing for dry weather for the next 36-48
hours. temperatures will continue to moderate upward through the
period with highs near normal in the 80s. low temperatures will
remain cooler with 50s tonight and some isolated 40s in
sheltered areas of nw pa and ne oh. record low temperatures are
possible tonight, especially if temperatures can creep into the
40s. lows will slowly increase each night through the weekend.

some isentropic lift and added moisture into the region on
saturday may allow for some isolated showers and storms to pop
up in far ne oh and nw pa and have some new low pops to account
for that. overall, most of the area should be dry on saturday,
allowing for a dry narrative to prevail for most.

key message 2...
an upper trough over the hudson bay of canada will drop south a
bit and allow for northwest flow aloft to setup across the area.
meanwhile, mid-to-upper 60s dew points will return to the region
in this northwest flow regime. this should allow for convective
activity to pick up across the great lakes region on sunday
through tuesday. current guidance suggests that storms will be
more organized to the west on sunday and eventually make it into
the area late. whereas, the remnant boundaries of convection
will be over the region on monday and tuesday to allow for more
coverage of storms in the region. with a moist and conditionally
unstable air mass on the northeast side of a ridge, there will
be concerns for strong to severe storms, and the area remains
outlooked in a day 5 spc severe risk area.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are expected through taf period with mainly clear
skies tonight, and daytime cumulus clouds around 4-6kft
tomorrow.

light and variable winds tonight, become east to southeast
around 5 knots. a lake breeze will shift winds to the northeast
during the afternoon at kcle and keri with speeds around
10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms sunday through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected through much of the weekend as
high pressure builds in. winds will be light at less than 10 knots
out of the east to northeast through friday night with the highest
waves being a foot or less. saturday through sunday night, winds
will shift to be out of the south to southwest at 5-10 knots and
waves building to 2 feet or less, generally in the open waters.
winds will increase monday out of the southwest to 10-15 knots as a
cold front approaches and thunderstorm chances increase.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...saunders
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
979
fxus63 kiwx 232345
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
745 pm edt thu jul 23 2026

.key messages...

- trending warmer into the weekend. hot and humid with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s by sunday and monday.

- primarily dry this weekend but there is a 20% chance of
showers and thunderstorms both saturday and sunday.

- best chance for storms in this 7-day forecast is sunday night
and again monday (30-60% chance).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 206 pm edt thu jul 23 2026

beautiful conditions this afternoon; fair weather cumulus and
temperatures in the 70s. this is courtesy of a trough departing the
northeast us with expansive high pressure at the surface. this
surface high shifts east over the next 24-48 hours as vast
ridging over the rockies builds in. southerly return flow, and
rising heights aloft, permit temperatures to steadily warm in
subsequent days. we cannot completely rule out stray showers or
storms saturday afternoon (20% chance) as the western us ridge
spills into western indiana and even central michigan this
weekend. there some some indications of possible severe storms
sunday evening as well amid a highly unstable environment,
increasing shear, and approaching 70-knot 500mb jet.

a similar setup brews monday night into tuesday as an upper-level
low drops over the upper great lakes. recent slight-risk severe
weather days have been highly conditional, and this one appears no
different. as a result, details are sparse. as mentioned in the
previous discussion, hot and humid conditions will return by
monday with highs in the 90s (near-90 sunday) and dew points in
the 70s. beyond this system, energetic northwest flow continues
through the midwest on the fringe of an upper-elvel ridge now over
the four corners region. however, this flow will need to
compete with eastern great lakes high pressure.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 743 pm edt thu jul 23 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals through the period,
with light and variable winds overnight shifting to the south-
southeast through the period. otherwise, expect variable
high/mid level clouds through friday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
354
fxus63 kdtx 232303
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt thu jul 23 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with near normal temperatures are expected through
saturday. the heat and humidity build back into the region sunday
and monday.

- thunderstorm chances increase late saturday night and into early
next week. currently the best chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms looks to arrive on monday.

&&

.aviation...

an expanse of high pressure stretching from the midwest to the mid
atlantic coast remains in control of conditions across the southern
great lakes. vfr under fading high based cumulus this evening gives
way to clear sky and just cirrus streamers over se mi by friday
morning. shallow fair weather cumulus returns with scattered
coverage friday afternoon as light and variable wind becomes more
consistently se into friday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 313 pm edt thu jul 23 2026

discussion...

large-scale troughing over the eastern us will continue to leave us
under subsidence, with high pressure dominating the forecast through
the first half of the weekend. this pattern will lead to continued
dry conditions and comfortable, near-normal temperatures. shortwave
activity embedded within northwest flow aloft tracks south of the
area friday morning through friday evening. while the forecast
remains dry, areas along and south of m-59 will likely see an uptick
in cloud cover.

the forecast looks to remain dry through much of saturday, with the
pattern turning more active for late saturday night and into next
week as a developing upper-level ridge becomes highly amplified
across the central conus and strong northwest flow develops aloft.
being on the periphery of the upper-level ridge, we will see an
uptick in warm air and moisture advection into the region. both
sunday and monday, 925-850 mb temperatures will support temperatures
in the upper 80s, perhaps a few spots approaching 90 degrees. dew
point temperatures will also be on the increase as moisture moves in
from the southwest, helping to push heat index values a few degrees
higher than air temperatures.

the big question for the latter half of the weekend and into early
next week are chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. as the
heat and humidity build back into the region on the periphery of the
upper-level ridge, we will need to keep an eye out for where
thunderstorm activity initiates and tracks across the region. medium
range guidance continue to hint at numerous rounds of organized
convective activity tracking from northwest to southeast across the
western great lake region. at this time, southeast michigan remains
on the gradient of better instability building into the region and
more than enough deep-layer shear for organized severe weather.
thus, we will need to keep a close eye the severe weather forecast
for sunday through monday night. looking at various ai/ml tools for
sunday, a few do highlight some of southeast michigan for possible
severe weather. then for monday, the spc has southeast michigan
under a 15% day 5 outlook and a few ai/ml tools show the potential
for even higher probabilities.

marine...

expansive high pressure in firm control, straddling the southern
great lakes and northern ohio valley this afternoon. the strongest
winds are across the northern third of lake huron, with a few gusts
aoa 20 knots. otherwise, winds are light and that will continue to
be the case tomorrow, despite the center of the high moving over the
mid atlantic. a surface trough slowly passing through during the
weekend will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms,
though winds are expected to remain light.

the next notable storm system arrives on monday, as low pressure
tracks across the northern great lakes. strong thunderstorms are
possible as the cold front works through the central great lakes
during the evening hours. northerly winds behind this system late
monday night into tuesday have the potential to reach 25 knots over
southern lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...ja
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.