Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
207
fxus61 kcle 311832
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
232 pm edt sun may 31 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes with this update as tranquil weather
continues through most of this upcoming week.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather with pleasant temperatures much of the week. a
gradual warming trend begins on wednesday.

2) potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms returns as
early as late friday and peaks over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure overhead today weakens slightly into monday with
re-enforcing high pressure building into the great lakes and mid
atlantic tuesday and wednesday, before sliding southeast for
thursday and friday. dry/tranquil and pleasant weather continues
through thursday, with temperatures beginning a gradual warming
trend wednesday and thursday as we get into light return flow
on the backside of the surface high and as heights aloft begin
to rise over the eastern us. the weak gradient will likely
allow for lake breezes most afternoons over the next several
days, keeping locations close to the lake a bit cooler.

key message 2...
building warmth and increasing humidity, along with a frontal
boundary sagging into the great lakes, will allow for some
shower and thunderstorm potential to return as early as friday
and into the weekend. friday should mainly be dry, though as a
weak shortwave moves through the northern great lakes and
provides some minimal forcing it`s possible there`s just enough
moisture and instability for a few late day showers and storms.
heading into the weekend, the front is expected to be close by
just to the north on saturday but with rather minimal jet
support, likely allowing for disorganized/scattered activity.
while some model runs and ensembles build high pressure into the
northeast and push the front south for sunday, others move the
next shortwave in from the west quicker. that would keep the
front farther north for the second half of the weekend...
leading to increased uncertainty by sunday. temperatures will
warm to above normal for friday and saturday as dew points also
climb into the 60s. sunday`s forecast will depend on the front`s
placement, with a warm and humid airmass and shower/storm
chances south of the front and milder, drier conditions north.

overall, there are low rain chances on friday but some limited
activity can`t be ruled out late in the day. saturday is the
highest confidence day for at least some scattered/disorganized
shower and thunderstorm potential, with a 40-60% chance in the
forecast across the area. similar chances (40-60%) are currently
in the forecast for sunday, though do note the uncertainty
regarding the placement of the front. the overall risk for
severe weather and flooding next weekend appears low, given
rather modest amounts of forcing and shear. it is worth noting
that with precipitable water values climbing above average and a
more humid airmass that at least some localized downpours and
heavy rain may still become something to monitor.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
flying in and out of northern ohio and nwpa will be ideal over
the next 24 hours with vfr conditions expected to prevail. high
pressure over the great lakes will continue to bring fair
weather and clear skies through monday evening. winds will be
light and variable 5 knots or less. a light northeasterly flow
of 5 to 8 knots will arrive later tonight into monday. there
will be a light lake breeze this afternoon at cle and eri up to
8 knots before returning to variable later this evening.

outlook...vfr expected through thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will persist over the great lakes and keep quiet
marine conditions around through at least friday of this week.
a northeasterly flow of 5 to 10 knots expected through tonight.
the northeasterly flow will increase slightly to 10 to 15 knots
during the day monday and tuesday, especially over the central
and western basin of lake erie. with that uptick of ne winds,
waves may briefly climb up to 2 to 3 feet with those daily
afternoon lake breezes. a southerly or southwesterly wind
around to 10 to 15 knots may return by the end of the week and
weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
196
fxus63 kiwx 311752
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
152 pm edt sun may 31 2026

.key messages...

- dry with low humidity and highs 75-80 through wednesday.

- trending warmer and more humid thursday through the weekend with
highs well into the 80s.

- periodic chances (30-50%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms
friday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 152 pm edt sun may 31 2026

stable and dry low levels on the southern fringe of high pressure
will allow seasonable temperatures, low humidity and rain-free
conditions to persist through the middle of the week. a west to east
oriented mid level trough axis drops south through the great lakes
and ohio valley monday into monday night with nothing more than an
increase in mid-high level clouds. ridging through the column then
settles in behind for the middle of the week with plentiful sunshine
and warming temps (high low-mid 80s by thursday).

a transition to flatter zonal flow aloft will bring periodic chances
for scattered showers and storms into the forecast friday afternoon
through next weekend as several subtle convectively augmented
impulses track east along a developing frontal zone. a warmer, more
moist, air mass will also advect in during this time supporting
these periodic 30-50% pops.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 115 pm edt sun may 31 2026

very dry conditions will persist in the lower levels and yield
vfr through the period. a weak shortwave will bring some
increasing midlevel clouds monday morning and perhaps a stray
sprinkle but ceilings will remain well above 5 kft. winds also
remain light and variable through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
706
fxus63 kdtx 311726
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
126 pm edt sun may 31 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with plentiful sunshine continues through mid week.

- near normal temperatures early week become warmer and more humid
thursday and friday.

- the next chance of rain develops friday into next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

stable and dry conditions held within broad high pressure across the
region maintain light wind and vfr through the period. the bulk of
se mi sees wind veer to nw this afternoon, but the metro detroit
sites look to hold out of the se due to the lake breeze influence.
nearly calm winds overnight emerge from the ne on monday with weak
instability possibly introducing high based cumulus by the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through monday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 340 am edt sun may 31 2026

discussion...

the much ballyhooed upper level blocking pattern remains in place
over central north america and will continue to hold off any
moisture return over the great lakes through the middle of the
upcoming week. a thinning of the omega block is forecasted on monday
as deep upper level trough will encroach on southeast michigan from
the north and east. however, heights will rebound quickly for the
middle of the week as the large amplitude ridge nudges eastward and
eventually takes on more of a rex block configuration. to put this
ridging event into perspective, the naefs data supports a high end
to climatological extreme event with, the heights (tue-wed) at all
of the levels, 1000-850-700-500mb at the 99.5 percentile. it isn`t
the surface anticyclone or mslp that has been unprecedented its been
the depth of the anticyclone that has persisted and encapsulated the
western great lakes. so, as this ridge finally folds over the
region, midlevel temperatures climb significantly resulting in
daytime highs some 10 to 15 degrees above normal thursday through
sunday.

the main weather narrative for today through tuesday is extremely
comfortable weather with low humidity and highs in the middle to
upper 70s. humidity likely becomes noticeable late thursday and
friday with dewpoints climbing towards 60 degrees. uncertainty
exists with the next chance for meaningful precipitation chances as
there is some timing difference with regards to the reestablishment
of zonal flow over the great lakes. the latest forecast brings
chance pops into the area late friday and for next weekend.

marine...

light and variable winds expected today as high pressure settles
overhead, ensuring another day of dry weather. a weak cold front
then settles across the eastern great lakes tonight, reorganizing
flow out of the northeast. gusts may briefly touch 25 knots monday
afternoon over saginaw bay where flow aligns with the fetch of the
bay, but should hold below 20 knots elsewhere. extended stretch of
dry weather then persists through at least mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...cb
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.