Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1155 pm est fri dec 19 2025

.synopsis...
cold and windy conditions continue this afternoon and evening,
with a brief warmup saturday. a pair of weak cold fronts move
through saturday night into sunday morning, with chillier
conditions again sunday. milder temperatures are expected
through next week.

&&

.near term /through saturday night/...
a surface/850 mb trough will pass through the southern great
lakes this afternoon and evening, with associated bands of
moderate snow pushing east across the forecast area. a robust
lake effect band along the northeast oh/northwest pa lakeshore
will intensify and move inland in the wake of this trough,
bringing three to five inches of snow to higher elevations of
erie county in pa. locally higher amounts up to six or seven
inches are possible in inland erie co. elsewhere across the
snowbelt, a general 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible. wind
gusts up to 50 mph are possible along the lakeshore through this
evening, which will result in areas of blowing snow in the lake
effect band. winds will gust to 30 mph elsewhere across the
remainder of the forecast area, but will diminish this evening
with near shore winds subsiding overnight. wind chills today
will remain in the single digits. low level warm air advection
moves in after 03z saturday, ending the lake effect event around
06z, and pushing temperatures back above freezing for the day
on saturday. dry and breezy conditions area expected through the
day saturday as well, with no advisories expected at this time.

&&

.short term /sunday through monday night/...
a couplet of weak/dry cold fronts will move through the region
on sunday with no significant weather expected. the first
passes through prior to sunrise, and the second by late morning,
which will result in a steady drop in temperatures through the
morning. temperatures eventually level out in the mid to upper
20s area-wide, but will rebound back above freezing again on
monday as high pressure moves eastward across the southern great
lakes and into the mid atlantic. there is potential for
overrunning rain overnight monday as a surface trough/warm
front begins to lift north out of the tennessee valley into the
ohio valley. eastern counties may see a brief period of snow
overnight monday before changing entirely to rain by tuesday
morning.

&&

.long term /tuesday through friday/...
high pressure will remain in place across the eastern seaboard
on tuesday, with warm southerly flow bringing mild conditions
to the region. this ridge will break down a bit on wednesday as
this system exits the new england coast, allowing for a period
of overrunning precipitation associated with a warm front
lifting across the area. periods of rain are possible through
friday, though precipitation amounts will be fairly minor as
these systems remain transitory. expectations of a white
christmas are sure to be dashed, as unseasonably warm
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are possible with the warm
front lifting north across the great lakes. temperatures the
remainder of the week will stabilize back to the mid-upper 40s.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
moderate lake effect snowfall has diminished this evening with
some light flurries persisting across lakeshore terminals. a
ridge of high pressure and drier air will continue to move into
the region allowing for any remaining mvfr ceilings across northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania to return to vfr by early
saturday morning.

ongoing southerly winds 8-12 knots will increase to 10-15 knots
sustained with gusts 20-28 knots by 15z/sat. winds turn
westerly saturday evening while gradually diminishing to 10
knots or less.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings behind a cold front
on sunday. non-vfr possible in rain and/or snow showers on
tuesday.

&&

.marine...
gale warnings remain in effect through this evening before winds
start to decrease as high pressure expands north across ohio. small
craft advisories will be needed east of cleveland once the gale
warning expires through the remainder of the night. low water
conditions continue on the western basin and the low water advisory
has been extended until 10 pm. the lowest water level has likely
been achieved and expect water levels to rise above the critical
mark through the evening.

a very brief break in windy conditions can be expected late tonight
into saturday morning as southerly winds increase to 20-30 knots by
saturday afternoon. small craft advisories will be needed again as
southwesterly winds veer to westerly saturday night and northwesterly
on sunday. conditions will be close to gale force and a gale watch
has been issued towards new york from 4 pm saturday to 10 am
sunday.

conditions improve monday with brisk winds monday night into
tuesday. conditions become more stable on the lake wednesday and
thursday as temperatures trend above normal. disruption to the ice
on the western basin of lake erie is likely.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory until 1 am est saturday for paz001.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est saturday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...27
near term...27
short term...27
long term...27
aviation...13
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
602 pm est fri dec 19 2025

.key messages...
- lake effect snow is expected to diminish this evening.

- a seesaw in temperatures will be characterized by warming
temperatures overnight into saturday before temperatures fall
back down for sunday and sunday night.

- much milder weather is expected next week with highs near 60
on christmas day.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 218 pm est fri dec 19 2025

for the pattern outlook during this period, the pacific pattern
appears to be in a combination of a jet retraction/equatorward shift
with positive anomalies over the aleutian islands and negative
anomalies over western canada down into western us. downstream, this
sets up a ridge over the southern us with shortwaves riding over the
top augmenting the ridge. a combination of a negative nao/ao and
negative pna allows for a warming trend of temperatures and
blocking, which is seen east of greenland in the norwegian sea.
forecast hovmoller plots of 200 mb meridional winds indicate a
nearly stationary wave train of positive anomalies in the western
conus with a negative anomalies in the east from around 12/20 into
early jan. much of the mid level troughing likely evolves to set up
along and east of the eastern seaboard, especially later in this
period.

closer to home, the trough that brought us the cold temps and rain
that changed to snow last night pushes away this afternoon allowing
les to come to an end and waa to come in behind. we do get a brief
period for winds to relax this afternoon into the evening, but
another low level jet is hot on its heels. the good thing here
though is that because of the waa, the lapse rates are much weaker
so gusts should be capped between 20 and 30 mph on saturday.
saturday`s trough is much farther north than the thursday one so the
15-20 percent chance for rain (now with the warmer temps because of
the waa) is during the pm time frame. speaking of the warming temps
here, apparent temps last night were in the single digits above and
below zero, but with the warming temps and lighter winds, apparent
temps will be in the single digits to low double digits above zero
tonight. while temps cap out below freezing today, we`ll be able to
rise back into the 40s on saturday.

surface high pressure moves in behind saturday`s trough/sfc low and
provides a dry day for sunday. often, high pressure comes in behind
a cold front and one such front is able to move through saturday
night that brings a fresh allotment of cold air so saturday`s
40s are capped below freezing again on sunday. some breezy winds
15 to 25 mph will be possible for sunday, but the llj is
departing and lapse rates are on the weaker side keeping gusts
lower then.

behind this surface high pressure system, waa follows for monday and
a warm front draped across the area is being tagged by the gfs to
produce some light precipitation monday. it is interesting that we
finally get moistening on the gfs by as late as 23z, so this
restricts what falls as it evaporates. this evening push of higher
moisture advection probably helps to keep ptypes wet as it falls,
but a dry dgz could allow for periods of drizzle monday night. we`ll
have to see what shape roads (read: cold or not) are in this weekend
to see if drizzle can accrete to roadways.

this moisture plume should be out of the area tuesday morning as
surface high pressure pushes through the great lakes overtop the
ridge. this allows for a warming trend of temperatures so that we`re
securely above freezing by wednesday 12/24. we`ve even got 60 degree
highs on christmas day in the forecast. the gefs has 850 and 700 mb
temperatures in the max of their climatology envelope for christmas,
which provides additional confidence in such an occurrence. all of
this contributes to a brown christmas this year. one other thing for
12/24 is a warm front pushes through. there are varying amounts of
moisture being forecast between the ecmwf and gfs so there is still
some question about if it`ll precipitate. have retained the nbm pops
there to indicate its chances.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 550 pm est fri dec 19 2025

the large area of light snow was retreating to the northeast as
well as the lower clouds accompanying the snow. cold, but very
dry air was over the area. low level mixing tonight should
prevent fog formation. a 60+ low level jet will bring favorable
conditions tonight for llws, so have included in both tafs.
warm air advection of a relatively dry airmass will scatter out
any remaining low clouds. south winds will eventually become
more west. vfr conditions will prevail.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1125 pm est fri dec 19 2025

.key messages...

- snow showers end and wind diminishes this evening.

- gusty wind returns with a chance for light snow or rain/snow mix
saturday afternoon and evening. no snow accumulation.

- below normal temperatures linger sunday but with dry weather to
wrap up the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

the ongoing transition to south flow and strong subsidence above the
inversion will lead to a breaking apart as remnant stratus lifts
northeast of the terminals in the 06z to 08z time frame. south flow
will strengthen during the morning in advance of a weak cold front
moving into the region from the west. model cross sections indicate
2k foot level winds increasing to 55 to 60 knots by daybreak
saturday. enough shallow boundary layer stability is suggested in
model soundings to warrant a mention of low level wind shear in the
morning. subtle boundary layer warming by afternoon will translate
to increased gustiness to the surface winds by afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet saturday and saturday evening.
moderate sunday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 343 pm est fri dec 19 2025

discussion...

a respectable multi-band mode of lake effect snow peaked during late
morning and early afternoon as the low level thermal trough crossed
lake michigan and the lower peninsula. the strong low level wind
field and steep boundary layer lapse rate made it easy for bands off
lake michigan to make it all the way across into se mi with good
organization, and despite lower end convective depth averaging
around 5 kft. a few overachieving bands benefited from modest mid
december daytime boundary layer instability within zones of enhanced
low level convergence and a thermal profile well rooted in the dgz.
now past peak, a few more hours of snow showers are expected until
synoptic scale subsidence and associated dry air quickly suppress
activity by this evening.

the strength of the larger scale surface wind field is also at peak
as of forecast issuance. there is still a chance for a few
borderline advisory level gusts prior to sunset, however the trend
is rapidly decreasing as the parent low pressure system moves
farther into northern quebec. in continued quick progression of
pressure systems, a narrow ridge of high pressure slides quickly
through lower mi tonight while the next surface low and frontal
system organizes over the plains. gusty wind redevelops and is
tempered by a rapid increase in warm advection and isentropic lift
by saturday morning. the moisture supply is adequate for a chance of
light snow, although coverage and duration increase farther north
into central and northern lower mi where forcing is maximized closer
to the consolidating surface low. a light rain/snow mix is in play
as surface temperatures return well above freezing through a shallow
boundary layer until the leading cold front/trough sweeps the
moisture axis eastward in the late afternoon. even then, readings
hold above freezing until after sunset when the primary/arctic cold
front arrives within the dry slot of the larger scale trough. cold
advection then dominates for the rest of saturday night which takes
readings down into the teens by sunday morning.

high pressure settles in across the great lakes sunday and sunday
night keeping temperatures below normal in a broad arctic air mass.
dry weather is projected during this time with broad consensus
across deterministic model solutions leading up to the next chance
of precipitation by monday. a short wave driven low pressure system
moves into the lee of the rockies during the day but is shown to
have a reach of mid level warm advection far to the east into the
great lakes, reasonable considering the broad long wave ridge in
place south of the low track. this could result in a few hours of
wintry mixed precip later monday and monday night as the low
pressure system approaches along the canadian border. this leads
into the warming trend that is firmly on track for the mid week
christmas holiday.

marine...

departing low pressure affords another few hours of northwest gales
before high pressure builds in overnight to allow the expiration of
headlines this evening. high pressure then brushes the southern
great lakes early saturday morning, shifting winds to the south
south and cutting off any lingering lake effect response. the next
clipper quickly approaches saturday, leading to another round of
gale potential in both the warm and cold advective regimes. the warm
sector expands into lake erie and southern lake huron during the day
saturday, with the low level jet intensifying to 50-60 knots by
afternoon. low inversion heights limit the depth of momentum
transfer, especially for the colder nearshore waters, to keep
majority of gusts aob 30 knots. that said, a localized pocket of
overlapping jet strength and warmer open water temperatures exists
over southern lake huron where southerly flow could gust to gales as
early as mid-morning. gale potential then increases more broadly
saturday night for all of lake huron as a cold front tracks through
and shifts winds to the west. peak winds coincide with a strong
surge of cold advection overnight, in which a period of strong gales
is possible. high pressure then returns sunday to ease winds and
waves back below headline thresholds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 4 pm saturday to 7 am est sunday for lhz361-362.

gale warning from 7 am saturday to 4 am est sunday for lhz363-
462>464.

gale warning from 4 pm saturday to 4 am est sunday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.