Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 121747
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
147 pm edt sun jul 12 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1)above average temperatures return this week.

2) a dry week is expected through thursday before chances of showers
and storms returns on friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a dominant ridging pattern has developed across much of the
contiguous us which will allow for above average temperatures to
return this week. highs today will climb into the low to mid 80s
before gradually rising into the low to mid 90s by wednesday.
through midweek, dew point temperatures will be in the mid to upper
60s, resulting in heat index values gradually in the mid to upper
90s by wednesday. these temperatures will result in moderate heat
risk with some areas of high risk through wednesday. overnight lows
through that period will also linger in the upper 60s to low 70s,
minimizing the overnight relief.

on thursday, a weak boundary is forecast to push south across the
area and allow winds to gain a more northerly component. when this
occurs, overall temperatures will begin to cool into the weekend
with decreasing dewpoints due to overall flow. on thursday, the heat
risk returns to moderate before falling to minor for this
weekend.

key message 2...
showers and storms are looking to return by friday into the weekend
as the aforementioned ridge looks to retrograde a bit and allow for
an upper level trough to push south across new england to the mid-
atlantic and portions of the eastern great lakes regions. this
positioning may allow for enough moisture flow into the area for
some diurnally driven convection to occur on friday with more
widespread precipitation possible on saturday. there is very little
agreement amongst models regarding this pattern shift, but it is
worth noting that spc has issued a day 6 15% that extends from the
washington dc area west to the cwa border. will have to continue to
monitor the forecast trend throughout the week to fully get an idea
of what the trough may do.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr conditions under high pressure will persist through the taf
period. afternoon sct fair weather cumulus across southeastern
sites will diminish tonight. northeast winds 8-12 knots with
occasional gusts 18-20 knots will become light and variable
tonight.

outlook...vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
onshore flow 15-20 knots will build wave heights to 3 to 5 feet
across the central basin this afternoon and evening. a small
craft advisory and beach hazards statement remain in effect from
2 pm to 9 pm tonight. there is a high risk of rip currents and
swimmers should remain out of the water.

high pressure drifts south across the region on monday giving
way to light offshore winds. as the high moves into the ohio
valley winds turn southwesterly and increase to 10-15 knots by
tuesday. a cold front will sweep south across lake erie on
wednesday night turning winds northerly. quiet marine conditions
are expected during the first half of the week but wave heights
may begin to build behind the cold front given onshore flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for
ohz009>011.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for
lez144>146.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 121738
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
138 pm edt sun jul 12 2026

.key messages...

- dry and trending warmer through the middle of the week.

- highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s by tuesday and wednesday,
with peak afternoon heat indices up near 100 degrees.

- low chances (20-30%) for showers and storms return late this
week into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 131 pm edt sun jul 12 2026

the boundary between more and less moist air is south of the area
meaning we`re in the drier air now. this period of drier air is
expected to continue through at least tuesday. by wednesday, the
center of the ridge shifts westward and the trough on the east coast
builds westward. the same energy that`s been around the region the
last few days attempts come back northward later wednesday or
perhaps thursday as the gfs shows. if the ecmwf is right and we end
up dry during this period, it could be that the next chance for rain
doesn`t come until the pattern turns into more of a ridge rider/mcs
pattern by friday and next week end as the ecmwf shows and
eventually the gfs shows. of course, pinning down exact timing of
pop up storms is much easier in the short to near term when
boundaries (like lake breezes and outflow boundaries) can be
realized.

heat is the other question during this period. a low level theta-e
plume arrives monday to monday night providing 850 mb temps that are
usually conducive to 90 degree high temps. the main issue with
seeing if this period is conducive to heat headlines is trying to
get models to realize what magnitude humidity we get. because this
airmass is being advected in from the northwest, moisture will have
time to mix with drier air. at the same time, crop
evapotranspiration may add humidity that models may be having a hard
time capturing. it is possible that we end up with 70f sfc dew
points as early as tuesday. the other question is how long this high
heat and humidity continues. there`s signs of a backdoor front
pushing in wednesday night to early thursday allowing for some
cooling at the surface. the ecmwf brings this back northward as a
warm front 48 hours earlier than the gfs on either friday as opposed
to sunday. given these uncertainties have decided to hold off on
heat headlines for tuesday yet.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1249 pm edt sun jul 12 2026

vfr conditions with light east-northeasterly flow through the
period. scattered cu around 4-5kft expected through the
afternoon before becoming clear overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 121842
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
242 pm edt sun jul 12 2026

.key messages...

- heat builds during the early half of the week with highs in the 90s
monday through wednesday.

- peak heat expected tuesday with highs in the upper 90s and heat
indices near or above 100 degrees.

- potential for showers and thunderstorms exists late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

1023 mb surface high pressure is entrenched overhead this afternoon,
which has led to another day of dry and seasonable mid-july weather
for se michigan. fair weather cumulus is observed extends from the
thumb into northern oh/in in the anticyclonic flow pattern, but is
shallow and ultimately expecting a dry and pleasant evening for se
michigan.

instability bubble is still confined to the u.p./upper midwest, but
will gradually pivot around the ridge and into lower mi early monday
morning. there are some model solutions (the most aggressive being
the hrrr) that initiate convection over central ontario and send it
south toward the progressing instability plume overnight. given that
instability is already being worked over by lake superior convection
at issuance, do not think this convection will be able to survive
into central/southern mi for very long. slight chance pops however bump
against the northern border of our cwa monday morning as a result.

heat begins to build across the state monday, with the hottest
conditions arriving tuesday as a 600 dam mid-level ridge stalls over
the upper midwest. downsloping effects over the saginaw valley and
metro detroit (plus urban effects) will lead to a local boost in
highs by a couple of degrees. so while most locations see highs in
the mid-upper 90s, high temperatures in these locations will be
closer to 100. heat indices remain in the 100-105 range at best
given sub-par moisture quality as dewpoints barely reach 70 degrees
tuesday, which may require a heat advisory. overnight lows then
remain seasonably warm, in the low-mid 70s through wednesday
morning. the ridge establishes a strong capping inversion that
limits thunderstorm chances for the first part of the work week.

in contrast to our last heat stretch, this one will be shorter-lived
with the ridge breaking down mid-week and folding into se conus as a
strong low carves into quebec. this leads to a period of height
falls wednesday and a flip in column winds from ne to nw, while also
establishing a deformation axis across northeast conus/canada late
in the week. higher confidence item in this pattern is a drop in
temperatures closer to normal: upper 80s-low 90s by thursday. much
lower confidence in thunderstorm chances though, which will depend
on how the deformation axis behaves. nebulous signal in the ensemble
guidance is due to the variability in individual members, ranging
from aggressive high pressure pushing all moisture/instability into
the ohio valley to a surge of return flow/instability into the great
lakes for the end of the week. about 15% of ensemble members have no
instability building into the region until next weekend, although
most stall the instability axis north of the state line. to sum it
up, the pattern late week-next weekend is low confidence and
unsettled when it comes to rain/storm chances.

&&

.marine...

high pressure will continue to hold over most of the great lakes
region today and going into the beginning of the week. the one
caveat will be across northern portions of lake huron where there
will be a slight chance for showers and storms this evening going
through the overnight hours. any precipitation will diminish by
early monday morning and dry conditions will prevail though much of
the week. lighter northeast winds will continue to be variable as
the high passes overhead this afternoon before becoming more
southerly going through the evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1253 pm edt sun jul 12 2026

aviation...

high pressure extends from the central plains to the southern great
lakes to the new england states today and is projected to hold a
similar position tonight and monday. the result is vfr under a
shallow cumulus response to daytime heating with light lake breeze
augmented easterly wind this afternoon and evening. northern great
lakes thunderstorms are not expected to survive the attempt to
propagate through northern lower mi tonight, although mid/high
debris clouds likely reach the mbs to fnt area. light and variable
to calm wind carry the rest of the way through sunrise followed by a
light sw component monday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......ss
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.