Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
111
fxus61 kcle 202005
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
405 pm edt wed may 20 2026

.what has changed...
the only notable change with this forecast update is that thunder
has been removed from the forecast this afternoon as the area
remains stable.

&&

.key messages...
1) below average temperature will linger through thursday and as
cold front departs south.

2) multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
impact the holiday weekend. heavy rain with totals of 1-1.5 inches
may result in localized flooding.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a much colder canadian high pressure has begun to push south across
the area behind a departing cold front. 850mb temperatures around 6-
7c will settle across the area and persist through thursday, keeping
temperatures below average. highs today and thursday will only climb
into the upper 50s to low 60s before cooling off overnight into the
mid 40s. given the expected widespread cloud coverage, not expecting
radiational cooling to further lower these temperatures at all,
precluded any potential for frost developing.

in addition, lingering light showers may persist into this evening
across the southeastern tier of counties (closest to the departing
boundary) possibly keeping temperatures cooler in the low 50s. opted
to remove the chance of thunder with this update as overall
instability, both at the surface and elevated, remain very minimal.
overall rainfall totals for the remainder of today should remain
less than 0.2 of an inch.

key message 2...
on friday, the aforementioned high pressure will begin to drift east
as a low pressure system begins to push north from the gulf coast
region. as this system approaches the area on friday, the chance for
widespread showers and thunderstorms will return through much of the
holiday weekend. initially on friday, overrunning of the warm, moist
airmass couple with support from an upper level shortwave trough
will allow for rain showers to expand northward. there remains high
confidence in widespread showers with possible thunder late friday
into early saturday as the very moist airmass continue to drift
north. looking at current forecast conditions, showers and storms
should remain progressive with limited potential for training which
will play into our favor given the increasing pwat values throughout
friday night. by late friday night/early saturday morning, warm
cloud layers will deepen to over 10kft with a strong llj nudging
into the area. this will result in periods of very efficient, heavy
rainfall late friday through the day on saturday as a warm front
lifts north. as a result, current qpf totals for this time period
are generally 1-1.5 inches. this amount of rainfall in a 24-hour
time span has the potential to raise local river levels and result
in nearby flooding concerns. in addition, localized ponding and
flooding in typical spots is likely. to highlight the heavy rainfall
for friday into saturday, wpc has put the ohio portion of the area
in a day 3 marginal (level 1 of 5) ero. saturday will warm
throughout the day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

as the warm front lifts north late saturday, there should be a
notable break in precipitation before widespread showers return on
sunday. the heaviest of these showers should be focused along and
east of i71 where diurnal instability could result in scattered
thunderstorms. in addition, mid and upper level support from a
shortwave trough and upper level jet will further enhance support
for widespread precipitation. the airmass will remain very moist and
allow for an additional 0.25-0.5 inches of rain to fall, primarily
over far neoh and nwpa. this additional rainfall could further
enhance ongoing flooding and result in additional flooding concerns.
to highlight this, wpc has put the aforementioned area in a day 4
marginal (level 1 of 5) ero. highs on sunday will climb into the mid
to upper 70s.

ultimately will have to monitor the flooding potential throughout
the weekend as multiple periods of heavy rainfall is expected. on
memorial day, showers should gradually diminish with temperatures
lingering in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
the trend through the taf period will be improving conditions
as mvfr, and some patchy ifr, ceilings become vfr. scattered
showers continue across terminals though not anticipating any
embedded thunderstorms across northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania terminals. showers will exit to the southeast
tonight allowing for mvfr ceilings to lift to vfr, but remain
under 5000 ft. high pressure will build over the region tonight
into thursday allowing for ceilings greater than 5000 ft by
thursday morning.

northerly to northeasterly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon will
decrease to 5-10 knots tonight. expect for northeasterly winds
to increase late thursday morning to 10-15 knots with
occasional gusts to 20-25 knots during peak heating.

outlook...non-vfr expected at times in rain late friday through
saturday night. scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-
vfr conditions possible again on sunday and monday.

&&

.marine...
the first beach hazards statement of 2026 has been issued given
unsettled marine conditions expected to begin thursday.
northeast winds tonight will increase to 15-20 knots with
onshore flow allowing for wave heights to build to 3-5 feet by
thursday morning. winds shift easterly thursday night into
friday then southeasterly friday and friday night. have issued
small craft advisories and beach hazards statements for the
entirety of nearshore zones and their accompanying lakeshore
counties. more information on timing for each hazard can be
found below. winds will favor an offshore component saturday
into the long weekend while diminishing to 10-15 knots sunday
and monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from thursday morning through friday
evening for ohz003-007-009-010.
beach hazards statement from thursday morning through late
thursday night for ohz011-012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from thursday morning through late
thursday night for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am thursday to 10 pm edt friday
for lez142>145.
small craft advisory from 8 am thursday to 4 am edt friday for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 201820
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
220 pm edt wed may 20 2026

.key messages...

- cooler and drier into thursday with highs only in the 60s.

- next chance for rain and a few storms arrive later friday
afternoon into the evening. while thunderstorms are possible,
the severe weather threat for friday night is low.

- gradual warming with highs in the 70s with periods of showers
and thunderstorms this weekend into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 pm edt wed may 20 2026

with a bermuda high pattern, there will be plenty of moisture
streaming into the conus. it is then up to the northern stream
or southern stream flow to bring a low pressure system into the
area to bring times of rain or a high pressure system into the
area to provide times of drier weather. as surface high pressure
moves into the northern great lakes the rest of today, east
winds will tend to keep the area devoid of rain, but some
cloudiness cannot be ruled out. the area of high pressure moves
into southeastern canada on friday and that opens the door for
low pressure to come in from the southern us and provide times
of rain to the area beginning later friday afternoon and into
the overnight. we`ll also have a period of large scale ascent
along the warm front as it moves through the area. shear will
still be lacking, but an area of mucape traverses locations
south of us-24 friday night into saturday and that may provide
an opportunity for non- severe thunderstorms. sfc dew points are
expected to surpass 60 degrees and so it`ll feel fairly humid
again and some locally heavy rain will be possible, especially
with the convective element available. southwestern flow comes
back into the area later saturday night into sunday morning and
may provide another opportunity for rain and some thunderstorms,
but again shear looks to be lacking restricting severity of the
thunderstorms. sfc dew points are again expected to surpass 60f
during this time bringing back the humidity and additional
chances for locally heavy rain. behind this cold front for early
sunday, another high pressure system keeps the area dry as it
moves through the southern and central great lakes area. it may
be that the front is still stalled out south of the area on
wednesday to keep us out of any rain chances as attempts for
return flow take place. it could be possible that pop showers
and storms form later tuesday and potentially wednesday given
some better instability, but areas of forcing are hard to nail
down this far out.

a warming trend is expected to take place with today and
thursday being the coolest and driest days, but temperatures
will be around 70 degrees again as soon as saturday and have the
chance to slowly trend warmer and may reach 80 degrees around
midweek next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 137 pm edt wed may 20 2026

high pressure passes by to the north between this afternoon and most
of thursday allowing mostly northerly winds to become northeast and
easterly winds through the period. this allows the moisture to trend
drier and for our clouds to break up and thin out becoming mostly
clear by thursday morning. it`s not out of the realm of possibility
that fwa sees a sprinkle in the first hour or two of this taf period
before we dry out. it is possible that we end up with around 20 kt
gusts at sbn this afternoon or around sunrise tomorrow, but am much
more confident in 10 kts sustained winds so will with that for now
as opposed to gusts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 1 am cdt thursday for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 2 am edt thursday for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 201859
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
259 pm edt wed may 20 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool through friday.

- rain returns by friday night and continues into saturday morning.

- a little milder this weekend, with chances for thunderstorms
saturday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...

application of a mid level short wave across lake superior and nw
ontario and persistent mid level confluent flow across the eastern
great lakes will allow sfc high pressure to expand eastward from
upper mi/lake superior into upstate new york thursday. the position
of this high will lead to persistent east-northeast winds across se
mi through the end of the week. ample dry air circulating around the
low/mid level anticyclone and broad large scale subsidence will
maintain a dry forecast into at least the first half of the day
friday. the loss of diurnal clouds this evening within ongoing low
level dry air advection will allow a general clearing trend during
the night, increasing radiational cooling potential and warranting
lows in the 30s and 40s. the inland push of the marine layer this
evening suggests the coolest readings will be across the thumb
region, which various ensemble members suggest min temps in the low
to mid 30s. the gradient will support light surface winds and some
increase in high level moisture is forecast late. this will warrant
a mention of just patchy or areas frost in the thumb region. the
large scale subsidence will limit overall mixing depths for the next
few days. this and the persistent easterly flow off the cool lakes
will keep temperatures a little below seasonal norms for late may.
high will mainly be the 60s, with cooler readings expected along
lake huron.

latest probabilistic guidance is quite high with rain chances late
friday into early saturday, resulting from a short wave forecast to
lift into lower mi from the southern mississippi valley. good
moisture transport is forecast with this wave. precipitable water
values are forecast to increase to 1.2 to 1.5 inches within a
respectable mid level isentropic ascent. with very little instability
forecast, this looks to be more of a rain event friday night. recent
forecast trends toward a more closed low to mid level circulation
over lower mi on saturday is suggestive of some diurnal instability
warranting a chance for thunderstorms. much of this will be
predicated on the efficiency of low level warm air advection. while
variance among model ensembles increase during the weekend, a
secondary mid short wave is forecast to move into the region sunday,
with increased chances for higher instability. this will warrant
another chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...

high pressure is sliding east across the northern great lakes today
and will hold through thursday. initially the increased
northeasterly gradient from the high running up against the front
just south of the region will increase winds just enough to
necessitate a small craft advisory for the lake huron nearshore
waters through this evening til midnight. as the high pressure
system moves over the great lakes on thursday, winds will begin to
veer to the northeast and will hold northeast-east through friday.
the next low pressure system is then expected to enter the great
lakes from the south late friday into saturday which will bring the
next potential for showers and thunderstorms. the easterly winds
will increase late friday through saturday with gusts possibly
exceeding 25 knots through that period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 126 pm edt wed may 20 2026

aviation...

post-frontal flow veers from north-northwest over mbs to east-
northeast at det/dtw/yip. light winds (aob 7 knots) at issuance will
increase slightly into the evening hours, with a more uniform
northeasterly flow pattern becoming established overnight across the
airspace as high pressure expands into lake superior. stripe of high
cloud over the southern terminal sites has slowed diurnal mixing,
which has afforded lingering periods of mvfr ceilings over dtw/yip.
continued daytime heating and eventual loss of high cloud influence
allows ceilings to climb above 3.0 kft agl over the next couple of
hours, while drier air advects into the airspace to decrease
coverage. clearing trend then expected late tonight into thursday as
winds veer to the east for the daytime period.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are expected through thursday
evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. low
tonight and thursday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......drk
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.