Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
149
fxus61 kcle 311119
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
719 am edt fri jul 31 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes from the previous forecast cycle. the weekend
continues to trend slower, which may allow for most of the area
to be dry during the daytime hours on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) seasonable last day of july is expected today with some
isolated rain chances in interior northeast ohio this afternoon.

2) showers and storms activity will increase through the weekend,
especially late saturday into early sunday. locally heavy
rainfall is possible where any repeated or training
thunderstorms occur.

3) daily, scattered rain chances and near normal temperatures
are expected for tuesday through thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to move east across the area today.
this will allow for return flow and additional moisture to enter
the region. high temperatures will be warmer today in the 80s
for most with some isolated highs near 90. the combination of
temperatures approaching convective temperatures, additional
moisture with dew points in the 60s, and a lake breeze could
allow for some showers to form in interior northeast ohio.
coverage will be fairly limited, but will maintain some low
pops. for most, it will just be a dry, typical late july day.

key message 2...
the main weather concern for the entire forecast period will be
a low pressure system that will move through the region starting
on saturday and not fully exit until monday evening. this system
continues to trend slower with the 00z guidance and much of the
forecast area may end up staying dry during the daytime hours
on saturday with just some scattered activity in the western
half of the forecast area. the bulk of the rain and storm
activity seems to be honing in on saturday night into sunday.
the environment with incoming low and upper trough moving
through the region will be favorable for efficient rainfall with
pw values over 2 inches in some model soundings in northwest
and north central ohio. storms should be progressing across the
region, despite the sluggish low. however, there is enough
forcing to get multiple storms to develop and there is concern
for training storms, which could pose a flood risk. portions of
the western forecast area are in a day 2 slight risk for
excessive rainfall to highlight the heavy rain and flash flood
potential on saturday night. portions of ne oh and nw pa are in
a day 3 slight risk for excessive rainfall as rain will continue
on sunday for the eastern half of the area. the system will exit
by monday and have pops trending down sunday evening and onward.

key message 3...
for next week, the upper trough that supported the system
through the region this weekend will become elongated and then
get pinched off from the main upper flow moving through eastern
canada. this will allow for a cut off upper low to form over
the central appalachians. with this feature to the southeast of
the forecast area, tough to be highly confident in rain chances.
however, this feature could provide just enough lift in a
typical summer atmosphere to generate some scattered showers
and maybe some storm. the best chance for any rain would be
during the daytime hours with help from peak heating.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
isolated patchy fog is bring observed in a few sites this
morning, reducing visibilities to 5sm. these conditions should
quickly improve this morning as daytime heating allows for
mixing. widespread vfr conditions are expected after that
for this taf period. there is a chance of showers at kyng and
kcak this afternoon which were handled with vcsh given the
timing and coverage uncertainty. high clouds begin to build
over the region this afternoon as a low pressure system begins
to approach from the west. winds will remain light and variable
through the period.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in showers and thunderstorms are
expected saturday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.marine...
pleasant marine conditions are expected across lake erie today
as high pressure remains over the region. light winds with a
southerly component will result in waves less than 1 foot. a low
pressure system will move into the region on saturday and
sunday shifting winds to easterly at 10-15 knots for much of the
weekend before becoming northerly late sunday. waves through
the weekend will generally linger in the 1-3 foot range,
although once the flow becomes onshore a few higher waves will
be possible. right now the forecast keeps conditions sub-
criteria for small craft advisory, but will need to continue to
monitor in coming days for any potential enhancement in the
winds and waves. by the start of next week, high pressure will
return along with calm marine conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
360
fxus63 kiwx 311119
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
719 am edt fri jul 31 2026

.key messages...

- chances (50-90 percent) for showers and storms this evening
into the weekend. heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are
expected within any storms. localized flooding is possible.
there is a marginal risk for stronger storms saturday
afternoon for portions of in, generally along/south of
in-218/in-18. damaging winds to 60 mph are the primary threat.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along
the southern berrien county, mi and la porte county, in
shoreline. breaking waves and currents are expected.

- there is a high swim risk for beaches along both la porte
county, in and all of berrien county, mi shorelines on sunday.
life-threatening waves and currents are expected. those
planning to visit the beach should stay out of the water.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 527 am edt fri jul 31 2026

one last dry day before chances for showers and storms move into the
area for the weekend (50-90 percent chances), and persist on and off
through next week (20-40 percent). expect increasing clouds today
with a low chance far west of a few showers towards the evening
hours. expect rain chances to increase and spread eastward through
the night, with the best potential west of i 69. more widespread
rain showers and scattered storms persist saturday (70-90 percent
chance). additionally, spc issued a marginal risk for isolated
strong/severe storms saturday afternoon, mainly including a small
portion of our indiana counties along/south of in-218/in-18 (wells,
grant, blackford, jay, and adams counties). the primary threat with
any stronger storms would be damaging winds up to 60 mph. otherwise,
the main hazards with storms will be gusty winds, lightning, and
heavy rain. localized flooding could occur in areas that see higher
rates, depending on how fast the system moves/moisture convergence
focuses. the marginal risk is associated with a more narrow
axis of sfc instability (300-800 j/kg sfc cape) that reaches
into the aforementioned area, with decent moisture transport
(td`s in upper 60s, low 70s) and 0-6 km bulk shear ranging from
30-50 knots (per most guidance, the nam12 has 50-60kts but
closer to ne in/nw oh...as it is further north than the other
guidance). don`t expect any widespread severe weather given
paltry mid level lapse rates at this point.

temperatures will be in the 80s today, then fall into the 70s, low
80s for saturday into monday. temperatures rise into the low-mid 80s
once again tuesday into friday.

our upper level ridge and subsequent surface high will drift
eastward today, with a broad upper level trough/closed low dropping
into the ia/il/in/ky area today into sunday, where it meanders
slowly east (or slightly northeast) from there. there is still a
bit of a difference in the placement of the upper trough/vort
max amongst guidance. because of this, the surface low is placed
differently, with discrepancies really showing up by 00z sun.
some of the guidance takes the surface low further south
(centered near indy/ky) whereas the nam shifts the low more
northeast into lake erie/southern ontario. with the blocking
pattern establishing itself through monday as mentioned in the
previous discussion, the trough may linger longer-especially
through sunday, but could be as late as mon/tue. increased pops
substantially sunday to account for this slower movement, with
the best potential in the morning along/south of us 24 (55-85
percent). elsewhere, chances range from 20-50 percent sunday.

there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along both
la porte county, in and southern berrien county, mi on
saturday, with easterly winds strengthening and shifting to the
northeast at 15 to 25 knots later in the day. waves will build
up to around 3 feet by late afternoon, greatest near new
buffalo, mi to michigan city, in.

there is a high swim risk for all beaches in berrien and la porte
counties on sunday. northeast winds will be around 15 to 25 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots, shifting to the north sunday afternoon.
waves continue to build from 3 to 5 feet saturday evening to
around 4 to 7 feet by sunday afternoon-with the highest waves
from warren dunes to michigan city, in. expect a strong
southward flowing longshore current and strong structural
currents, especially on the north sides of piers and breakwalls.
rip currents are expected. those planning to visit the beaches
should stay out of the water.

issued a small craft advisory from 18z saturday into 9z monday for
both marine zones. for now, held off on issuing a beach hazards
statement-prefer to wait until the next wave model run this
afternoon to narrow down timing/increase confidence given it`s still
beyond 24 hours.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 716 am edt fri jul 31 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period, with
calm/variable winds strengthening out of the south, then
shifting southeast. mvfr conditions are more likely at ksbn
once rain moves in (and possibly a thunderstorm) after 00z;
then at kfwa after 6z. guidance has ceilings around 700-1500 ft
at ksbn, especially after 6z with heavier showers and
potentially storms, so ifr conditions are possible. for now
handled with prob30 groups at both sites.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm saturday to 5 am edt monday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
492
fxus63 kdtx 311057
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
657 am edt fri jul 31 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are
forecast saturday and sunday. there is considerable uncertainty in
the rainfall forecast, especially saturday night and sunday. there
is a low chance (10-30% chance) that a narrow axis of heavy rain
could develop and bring flooding concerns, especially over urban
areas.

- dry weather returns early next week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.aviation...

the day starts with high pressure still providing mostly clear vfr
and light wind across se mi. this gives daytime heating a chance to
produce vfr based cumulus before high clouds thicken during the
afternoon ahead of the next plains to midwest low pressure system.
ongoing showers/storms associated with this system move slowly
eastward and develop more into northern/central lower mi by evening
along a leading surface trough. coverage of showers then increases
into the mbs area toward midnight spreading southward with scattered
coverage late tonight. the surface trough settles toward fnt with
increasing mvfr potential within ne low level flow mbs to fnt
heading into sunrise saturday.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through this evening.
a low chance of storms holds north of d21/dtw tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and saturday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 401 am edt fri jul 31 2026

discussion...

an upper ridge axis passes over the great lakes today, shunting
surface high pressure off to the south and east. despite increasing
coverage of high cloud this afternoon, 1000-850mb thickness
advection will result in an uptick in high temperatures into the
upper 80s and lower 90s. can`t rule out a stray late day shower in
the saginaw valley and thumb where a weak surface trough may be able
to capitalize on some weak instability; otherwise dry conditions
prevail with little organized ascent expected.

the upper air pattern amplifies this weekend in response to a
pacific jet streak arriving over the pnw. a shortwave meandering
over the upper midwest today reaches the western great lakes
saturday then interacts with a trough deepening overhead on sunday.
this process sets off multiple rounds of ascent that pass overhead
as a surface low tracks across northern/central il into the ohio
valley. as deep layer moisture wraps around the north side of the
low, a wet pattern is in store for the weekend. scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are forecast to arrive late tonight and
saturday morning as the initial arc of upper height falls and pva
pivot through.

scattered showers will remain in the vicinity through the day
saturday as the low begins to work into the lower ohio valley and
deeper moisture spreads in. a complete washout is not expected as
several solutions still hold onto some low-level dry air, especially
around metro detroit, which may limit coverage during the day. a few
thunderstorms are also possible but in general the near moist
adiabatic lapse rates will limit instability. increasing coverage of
showers seems reasonable by saturday evening and overnight into
sunday as the upper forcing begins to consolidate overhead, favoring
an increasing fgen and deformation response. the environment will
support moderate to heavy downpours as pwat rises to around 1.75"
(90th percentile) with warm cloud depth on the order of 12 kft noted
in soundings.

there remains a high amount of uncertainty regarding qpf magnitude
and placement during this period owing to the scale of the forcing
as well as uncertainty in the track/intensity of the low. in
general, the ensemble solution space indicates high probability for
at least 0.25" of rainfall with reasonable potential for up to
1.50". will note that the last several runs of the nam are high
outliers within the grand ensemble envelope, but do indicate the low
probability high end outcome for storm totals over 3" in the event a
deeper low drives a targeted corridor of training convection along a
nearly stationary fgen axis. wpc has highlighted all of se mi within
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall saturday and sunday.

the system slowly migrates east by monday as an upper ridge quickly
advances into the great lakes. there is increasing potential for the
upper circulation to become orphaned over the ohio valley early in
the week, which could keep some showers in the vicinity of metro
detroit and south. high pressure building in from the north should
otherwise maintain relatively benign and seasonable conditions into
the midweek period.

marine...

high pressure tracks through the region passing just to the south
across the ohio river valley today. wind fields will respond
accordingly and become southerly to westerly. a low pressure system
will then follows and also tracks across the ohio valley over the
weekend. winds turn northeasterly across lake huron saturday night,
which will bring favorable flow that will lead to increased winds
and waves through saginaw bay. this low and associated frontal
features will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms starting
late friday night and into sunday.

hydrology...

scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are
forecast late saturday into sunday as a low pressure system tracks
into the ohio valley. the increasingly moisture laden environment
will support moderate to heavy rainfall rates. there is relatively
high confidence in rainfall totals between 0.25" and 0.75".
considerable uncertainty exists regarding placement and magnitude of
the heaviest rainfall, but low probability (<30%) exists for
rainfall totals in excess of 2.00" by late sunday. this may lead to
flooding concerns this weekend, particularly in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...tf
marine.......aa
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.