Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
631 am est sun mar 1 2026

.what has changed...
confidence continues to increase in wet and warm conditions
tuesday onward.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow continues through the pre-dawn hours this morning
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. limited impacts
are expected.

2) a brief period of freezing rain is possible tuesday morning,
though confidence remains low.

3) warmer conditions with multiple rounds of rain are expected
tuesday through next weekend, bringing the potential for nuisance
flooding and rising water levels on area rivers and creeks.

&&

.discussion...
1) a quick round of light snow continues through the pre-dawn
hours this morning, mainly east of i-77 . dry-low levels did
prevent snow from beginning until around 11 pm - 12 am, which is
likely to lower overall snow amounts. there are a few spots
with road temperatures at or below freezing, mainly in
lake/ashtabula counties, and northwest pennsylvania. outside of
these areas, snow will struggle to stick to pavement, limiting
any road impacts. any snow that does stick won`t last long as it
melts with sunny skies. snow accumulations of a half inch or
less are expected.

2) an upper-level trough and associated surface low move to the
lee of the rockies monday night into tuesday, with a warm front
lifting north towards our area in response to broad south to
southwest flow ahead of the trough/low. precipitation is likely
to develop upstream in response to isentropic lift and
frontogenetical forcing, with the precipitation shield moving
northeastward across the area monday night into tuesday. a warm
nose aloft ahead of the surface front may produce a vertical
thermodynamic profile briefly favorable for freezing rain,
particularly along the leading edge of the advancing
precipitation.surface temperatures ahead of the warm front will
be below freezing, though only marginally so.

confidence in freezing rain is low at this point. it is very
dependent on the location/timing of the warm front, which will
impact surface temperatures. meanwhile, there is also some
uncertainty with precipitation location/timing. northwest
pennsylvania has the best chance at seeing a glaze of ice, which
is where there`s likely to be the best overlap of cold surface
temperatures and precipitation. freezing rain could also be
possible in northeast ohio (uncertainty with temperature) and
northwest ohio (uncertainty with precipitation). we should start
to have a better idea once we get into range of hi-res guidance
(12z cycle on sunday will be in range). where freezing rain
occurs, a light glaze could make thing slick before temperature
warm up to the 40s and 50s by the afternoon.

3) a strong upper-level ridge anchored off the southeast
atlantic coast will provide sustained southwest flow of warm,
moist air to much of the eastern conus through at least this
weekend (and probably into much of the following week too).
meanwhile, a warm front wavering over the area and several
upper-level trough will be the focal points for several periods
of rainy weather. a few specific points worth mentioning
regarding this period:
-confidence is very high in multiple rounds of precipitation and
warm weather continuing through at least the weekend, though
some uncertainty regarding the exact details.
-confidence is low in flooding and associated impacts. it`s
likely we see at least nuisance flooding (i.e. ponding near
curbs, standing water in parking lots/yards, minor basement
seepage, or flooded parks from high water levels on
rivers/creeks) but there is some uncertainty in higher impacts.
-the best chance for thunderstorms will be wednesday night and
again friday. convection could lead to locally heavy rain and
higher qpf/flooding potential.
-friday has the best overlap of surface-based instability and
deep-layer shear, and consequentially, a low chance for severe
weather.
-friday is likely to be the warmest day of the forecast, and
could challenge record daily highs.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
lingering mvfr ceilings 1500-2500 ft will gradually improve to
vfr later this morning/early afternoon. anticipate widespread
vfr conditions to persist through the remainder of the taf
period. winds will generally be northerly to northeasterly
through the taf window. a brief window of elevated winds 10-15
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots this morning before winds
diminish to 8-12 knots late this morning through tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow tonight into monday, mainly
along and south of us-30. active weather with multiple rounds
of precipitation across terminals with periods of non-vfr
possible.

&&

.marine...
elevated northerly flow 10-20 knots early this morning will
diminish throughout the day today to 5-10 knots while becoming
easterly. flow will briefly shift offshore on tuesday before
returning easterly to northeasterly tuesday night and wednesday.
a more prolonged period of primarily offshore flow 10-15 knots
is expected thursday into the weekend.

an extended period of mild temperatures accompanied by multiple
systems moving through the region will lead to continued
shifting and decay of remaining lake ice.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
616 am est sun mar 1 2026

.key messages...

- cool and dry today with highs in the 30s.

- unseasonably mild wednesday through saturday with highs in the
50s to around 70.

- periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms at times wednesday
through saturday.

- rises on rivers are expected. some rivers may eventually reach
action or flood stage late in the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 315 am est sun mar 1 2026

system snow had ended last night with cloudy skies prevailing
over much of the area with generally north to northeast winds at
the surface. the chilly northeast flow behind the departing
upper level trof will keep temperatures well below normal for
today with highs almost exclusively limited to the 30s. an
impulse moving rapidly east in the upper flow is expected to
track south of the forecast area tonight. have kept snow out of
the south areas for now including areas south of a line from
marion to portland; however, can not rule out a brief period of
light snow.

a very active pattern of wet and mild weather is ahead this upcoming
week. ensemble scenarios (desi) graphics show accumulated precipitation
around 2.5" (inches) by sunday. at this time given the antecedently
dry conditions across the forecast area, any areal flooding or rises
on rivers leading to flooding will not be immediate; however, periods
of light to moderate rain over a long period of time will eventually
saturate soils and cause runoff which may eventually lead to hydrologic
issues late this week. along with the anomalously wet pattern ahead,
mild weather will also prevail. temperatures are expected to average
close to 15 to 25 degrees above normal late this week. gfs 500 mb
forecast height anomalies are 200 meters above normal for this time
of year. temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, so icy
roads are not expected.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 616 am est sun mar 1 2026

2 kft stratus deck and associated flurries will clear ksbn
within the hour but will take a few more hours to clear kfwa
given upstream obs. still anticipate vfr no later than 16z at
kfwa that will persist through the end of the period. midlevel
clouds increase overnight due to a shortwave passing to the
south but the lowest 10 kft remain very dry.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
549 am est sun mar 1 2026

.key messages...

- colder and drier on sunday, followed by an extended warming trend
during the upcoming workweek.

- the next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs tuesday
with a wintry mix possible.

- several additional opportunities for rain the latter half of the
week.

&&

.aviation...

mvfr stratus deck exits south of the state line over the next
several hours in favor of a drier airmass moving in from the north.
northeast wind direction shifts to the north-northwest through the
morning to keep lake huron moisture flux generally east of the
terminals. lake michigan moisture, however, will be redirected toward
the saginaw valley and may lead to vfr cu development this afternoon.
the governing feature during this taf period is canadian high
pressure, with the center of the high drifting overhead this evening.
winds will shift to the southeast as the high departs, which will
draw marine moisture inland under favorable radiative cooling
conditions tonight. patchy radiation fog is therefore possible invof
the dtw corridor monday morning, although with low confidence as the
inbound airmass is very dry.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet before 12z. low for the rest of
the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 am est sun mar 1 2026

discussion...

low amplitude trough will continue to pull off to the east today
through monday eventually giving way to a nearly zonal longwave
pattern through much of the week. strong flow will be held to the
north over canada with a weaker southern stream lingering through
the central plains and ohio valley in the vicinity of a stalled
front that will become very active especially later in the forecast.
the pattern will lead to a notable warming trend this week with
steadily building heights and highs reaching 50 by wednesday and
even 60+ on friday.

for today we`ll be on the backside of the exiting trough with
northerly flow across the area bringing in feed of cool canadian air
under a thermal trough in the negative teens at 850mb. highs will
mainly be in the 20 to 30f range (n to s). could have some lingering
flurries into the morning as batch of low level moisture under the
strengthening inversion works across the area. satellite shows
multiple snow bands over lake huron which we`ve been watching to get
shunted southward into the eastern thumb this morning. exeter radar
is not too impressive nor is the satellite at this time so could get
brushed with light snow this morning but hires isn`t supporting any
stronger bands and soundings are very slim on moisture depth so
won`t be highlighting snow chances today at this point.

high pressure will build over the region becoming centered by this
afternoon. could see a pop of cu this afternoon but skies should
generally be clearing beyond that with the dry air associated with
the high. it should drift far enough east to allow the beginning of
the southerly return flow and building heights by monday pushing
highs above freezing for all locations. the front will be well to
the south which will direct the next shortwave across ky keeping mi
dry.

the next wave will lift further north sending elevated moisture over
the stalled front early tuesday morning. there is a narrow window in
the morning where temps will be below freezing when light precip
could begin. warm air advection aloft will produce temps above 0c
just a few hundred feet off the ground through the first few
thousand feet of the profile. this could result in light freezing
drizzle. soundings are not impressive at all right now in terms of
moisture in the column during this window, really not supportive of
precip in general at this time. continued warm advective and better
moisture will quickly warm the profile to result in all rain for
tuesday. forecast will carry mention of rn/fzra for now but if the
current slower trend continues pushing the start of the rain deeper
into tuesday morning, we will see probs for fzra continue to
decrease.

latter half of the forecast will remain wet as several wave eject
out of the developing west coast trough and through the region. min
temps will be above freezing through the end of the week and weekend
with aforementioned highs in the 50s and even 60s so ptype will be
rain.

marine...

low level cold advection continues this tomorrow morning as strong
high pressure builds over the central great lakes this afternoon.
subsequently, northwest winds around 20 knots will decrease under 15
knots this afternoon and aob 10 knots by evening.

as the large high pressure moves off the east coast early next week,
strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the great
lakes region. with the increase in low level stability, it appears
winds will just top out in the 25 to 30 knot range. a weak low
tracking through the northern ohio valley mostly rain over lake st.
clair and lake erie, with dry weather and light winds returning
wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns. another warm
low producing rain looks to be arriving on thursday. could be a
period of stronger easterly winds (20-30 knots) over the north half
of lake huron preceding the low.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...drk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.