Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
016
fxus61 kcle 280227
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1027 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

.what has changed...
a short-fuse wind advisory has been issued for portions of
northwest and north-central ohio through 3 am as south to
southeast winds remain elevated (40 to 50 mph) ahead of a line
of showers and thunderstorms. an extension in area (eastwards) and
time may be necessary behind the line of showers and storms if
winds remain elevated.

&&

.key messages...
1.) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening through wednesday night. gusty winds are expected in erie
county, pa late this evening into most of tuesday morning,
especially along and within several miles of lake erie.

3.) below-average air temperatures are expected wednesday through
this saturday night with multiple opportunities for frost formation.
a warming trend should begin this sunday, may 3rd.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward the rest of today
through tuesday and is followed by cyclonic sw`erly to w`erly flow
aloft over our cwa. multiple shortwave disturbances embedded in the
cyclonic flow aloft will traverse our region. at the surface, a
primary low downstream of a prominent shortwave trough axis will
deepen as it wobbles nne`ward from the upper ms valley to james bay
the rest of today through sunset tuesday evening. deepening of this
low pressure center at the surface and aloft will contribute to the
development of a s`erly to ssw`erly low-level jet of about 45-55
knots that will translate e`ward over our cwa this evening through
mid-morning on tuesday. in response to the low`s track, a surface
warm front should sweep ne`ward through our region between about 4
am and midday tuesday before a surface cold front begins to sweep
e`ward across our cwa tuesday afternoon and nears the oh/pa line by
sunset tuesday evening. low-level waa ahead of and behind the warm
front will contribute to an unusually-mild night tonight. lows
should reach the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak tuesday.
tuesday`s highs should reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s amidst
persistent low-level waa ahead of the warm front and within the warm
sector, and peeks of sunshine.

showers and thunderstorms:

multiple rounds of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected to traverse our region generally from sw to ne between
about 5 pm today and mid-morning tomorrow as weak cape, including
elevated cape, and moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear allow
ongoing convection over/near il/in late this afternoon to persist
amidst sw`erly mean mid-level flow. additional showers and
thunderstorms should develop over our region late this evening
through tomorrow morning due to moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the warm front and enhanced moist isentropic ascent
associated with the low-level jet amidst the aforementioned
thermodynamics and kinematics. spc has far-western portions of our
cwa included in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging straight-line convective wind gusts this evening
through tonight. however, this risk appears to be very marginal due
to the expectation of weak instability and the development of
sizable dcin via nocturnal cooling-related stabilization of the
boundary layer this evening through daybreak tomorrow. additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late tuesday morning
through sunset tuesday evening courtesy of low-level convergence and
moist ascent along the cold front and pre-front surface trough axes,
which should release weak instability amidst mainly moderate deep
layer bulk shear.

wind advisory:

se`erly to s`erly downslope surface winds up to 30 mph, gusting up
to 55 mph, are expected in erie county, pa late this evening through
mid-morning on tuesday for the following reasons: tightening of the
synoptic mslp gradient in response to the aforementioned deepening
low; low-level winds increasing with height promoting mechanical
mixing of the boundary layer up to ~1kft agl, which should allow the
mixing to tap into the lower-reaches of the aforementioned low-level
jet. note: multiple recent runs of the hrrr suggest the upcoming
convection may be accompanied by a fairly-strong cold pool and wake
low at/near the surface this evening into the predawn hours of
tuesday, and the resulting mesoscale mslp gradient may be tight
enough to generate advisory-criteria wind gusts for several hours
across most of our cwa. will let the evening shift reevaluate the
potential need to expand the wind advisory.

----

during tuesday night through wednesday night, cyclonic sw`erly to
w`erly flow aloft should persist over our region as a primary trough
axis moves from the northern great plains and vicinity to the
central great lakes. at the surface, the cold front should drift
e`ward across the rest of our cwa by daybreak wednesday as a new low
develops ne`ward along the front from the ark-la-tex region to the
mid oh valley. this low should then develop farther ne`ward along
the front and reach southern qc by daybreak thursday as a surface
ridge builds very slowly from sk and vicinity. additional periods of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tuesday night
through wednesday as sufficient instability, including elevated
cape, is released by the following: low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the front; low-level frontogenesis resulting from low-
level waa and caa induced by the frontal cyclone; moist isentropic
ascent preceding shortwave trough axes in the cyclonic flow aloft.
lows should reach the mid 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak
wednesday and be followed by daytime highs only in the 50`s to lower
60`s as net low-level caa occurs behind the cold front. isolated and
lingering rain showers should end generally from west to east
wednesday night as the upper-reaches of the cold front depart and
the aforementioned surface ridge builds generally from the
northwest. partial clearing, easing surface winds, and net low-level
caa should allow lows to reach the mid 30`s to mid 40`s around
daybreak. the coldest lows may be accompanied by patchy frost
formation in the valleys of interior nw pa.

key message 2...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave trough
axes should impact our region on thursday through saturday night as
the aforementioned surface ridge continues to build slowly from the
northern and central great plains, and vicinity. this weather
pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain an
unusually-cold air mass across northern oh and nw pa. daytime
highs should reach mainly the upper 40`s to upper 50`s daily on
thursday through saturday. overnight lows should reach mainly
the lower 30`s to lower 40`s around daybreak friday, saturday,
and sunday, respectively. will continue to monitor the potential
for additional frost formation and the need for a frost
advisory or freeze warning. note: isolated rain showers may
develop during the late morning through early evening hours of
friday and saturday due to self- destructive sunshine and low-
level convergence/moist ascent along subtle surface trough axes
attendant to the shortwave troughs aloft. during the late
morning and early evening hours, the atmospheric column may be
cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix with the rain.

on sunday, the surface ridge should build in earnest from the west
as a shortwave ridge aloft does the same. current odds favor dry
weather courtesy of stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge.
clearer sky and greater daytime heating should allow late afternoon
highs to reach the mid 50`s to mid 60`s.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with deterioration to mvfr
and pockets of ifr possible later this evening and overnight,
mainly associated with showers and thunderstorms arriving from
the west. highest confidence for direct tsra impacts exists at
tol/fdy, though can`t rule out some vicinity thunder further
east at mfd/cle/cak. also can`t rule out some pockets of lower
ceilings following the showers and thunderstorms overnight,
though was only confident enough to include ifr ceilings for
mfd at this time. scattered showers will redevelop late tuesday
morning and early afternoon with a cold front, mainly impacting
sites along and east of the i-71 corridor, though confidence in
non-vfr vsby impacts remains low. anticipate some improvement to
vfr towards the end of the taf period as ceilings begin to
scatter.

winds are generally out of the south to southeast this evening,
10 to 15 knots with pockets of higher wind gusts of 30 to 35
knots along the i-75 corridor. low-level winds will quickly
increase later this evening out of the south, 45 to 55 knots,
which will introduce a brief period of llws at all taf sites.
surface southeast winds are expected to increase towards early
tuesday morning behind the approaching showers and
thunderstorms, 15 to 25 knots with pockets of 35 to 40 knot
winds possible. the highest confidence and most prolonged
stronger south to southeast winds will be found at eri. winds
will shift towards the west, then northwest behind a cold front
tuesday afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
south-southeast winds become strong tonight into early tuesday
behind a warm front, with 15-25kt sustained winds expected and
some higher gusts to 35kt possible, especially along the
eastern lakeshore. waves will be largest in the open waters, but
the strong offshore flow can pose a hazard to smaller craft even
in the nearshore. a small craft advisory kicks in at 8 pm this
evening for all nearshore waters. winds shift more west-
southwest on tuesday behind a cold front that will cross the
lake during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours. winds
will be strongest through early tuesday morning, but may be
elevated at times until the cold front clears the lake later
tuesday afternoon. mainly light winds are then expected for the
remainder of the week, though a brief period of elevated 15-20kt
north-northeast winds are possible on wednesday as weak low
pressure tracks through the ohio valley.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory until 3 am edt tuesday for ohz006-008-017>019-
027>030-036-037.
pa...wind advisory until 11 am edt tuesday for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/kahn
aviation...kahn
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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445
fxus63 kiwx 272339
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
739 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- area of rain and embedded storms will move east over the next
several hours. additional storms are possible tonight, but
confidence in the threat of severe storms is somewhat less
than previously forecasted.

- a period of gusty winds is expected in the wake of the
rainfall with gusts of 40 to possibly 50 mph in some
locations.

- temperatures trend cooler the remainder of the week with
highs in the 50s.

- although a chance of rain returns tuesday night into
wednesday, the bulk of the period tuesday through this weekend
appears to be dry.

- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

a large area of stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms was
progressing east across western indiana and eventually points to
the east with all areas seeing a 2 to 4 hour period of rainfall.
severe weather is not expected with this area, as a organized,
elevated line of thunderstorms moves from central il into
central in. behind the precipitation, hrrr and rap continue to
advertise a period of gusty winds courtesy of an increasing
rise/fall pressure couplet from a developing wake low. some
stronger gusts have been noted already in eastern ia and western
il. a wind advisory was recently issued to handle this concern
through 00z tue, with some potential for an eastward (maybe
southward) expansion with time. the couplet seems to move east
and then transition ne, hence the area of the headlines for now.

confidence in a threat for strong to severe storms is on the low
to medium side as cams are struggling to deal with the impacts
of the afternoon convection and subsidence with the wake low.
not ready to dismiss the threat given the wind fields and
overall dynamics in place. the enhanced and moderate risk areas
remain well to our sw where the greatest concerns exist. a
conditional threat for convectively related damaging winds and
maybe a tornado or 2 may exist if storms can develop upstream
and move in. as a result, limited changes to the late
afternoon/early evening period. continue to monitor later
updates. some hydro concerns may exist into tonight if
additional convection does move in, but precip should remain
progressive enough to limit impacts.

once we get past tonight, we trend cooler and for the most part
drier as more of a nw flow aloft sets up with a weak system
maybe bringing some showers to southern areas tuesday night.
concerns do still exist for frost/freeze headlines later this
week, but extended period left untouched for now with focus on
near term threats.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 731 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

sites begin vfr with gusty winds due to a wake low. the elevated
winds from the wake low will begin to decrease just after the
start of the taf period. another line of storms will approach
sbn around 02z with tsra threat through 05z. these storms appear
to weaken as they approach sbn, but may maintain a marginally
severe wind threat for both sbn and fwa. guidance isn`t as
excited as previous runs with weaker storm threat between 02z
and 06z this evening. mvfr cigs and vsby are likely with any ts
but vsby improves after storms exit by 06z. low mvfr cigs remain
through daybreak before scattering out by early afternoon. a
return to vfr conditions for tuesday afternoon.southeast winds
become southerly with the -shra/-tsra and then more westerly
tuesday morning. sbn will likely be more west-northwesterly.
winds begin to decrease by end of taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for inz006>009.
oh...wind advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005.
mi...wind advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz079>081.
marine...gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.
small craft advisory until 11 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...bph

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
617
fxus63 kdtx 280337
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1137 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

.key messages...

- showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening into early
tomorrow morning.

- much colder air arrives by the end of the work week and holds
through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will track across se mi
during the first half of the overnight. this is all associated with
the northern portions of the convective complex now affecting the
northern ohio valley. a cold front will be driven east across se mi
early tues morning. weak surface based instability along this front
will provide another chance for convection, mainly focused between
08z and 13z. ongoing low level moisture advection within the broad
region of showers will support increased probabilities for mvfr
based clouds late tonight through tues morning.

d21/dtw convection...clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to move
into the d21 airspace overnight. with less instability forecast,
there is the expectation that the coverage will decrease as the
showers move across the area. current indications suggest the more
probable convective timing will be between 08z and 13z early tues
morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms tonight.

* moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet after midnight, high tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 823 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

update...

meso scale dynamics associated with a wake low which developed over
the western great lakes this afternoon supported fairly widespread
strong/damaging winds across sw lower mi earlier. it appears some
enhanced subsidence along the back edge of a rapidly diminishing
region of showers sustained strong winds into portions of se mi this
evening, mainly across the western sections of the dtx forecast
area. the showers have since diminished and the pressure rise/fall
couplet has significantly weakened. this has largely ended the risk
of additional wind gusts over 40 mph this evening.

attention now turns to the large convective complex across illinois.
recent hi res guidance and regional radar trends suggest the northern
portions of this mcs will expand into se mi later this evening under
strong low to mid level ssw flow. the 00z dtx sounding confirmed a
lack of instability over se mi. while some elevated instability is
likely to advect in from the southwest, a broad region of showers
with some embedded thunderstorms looks to be the more likely outcome.
model solutions at least indicate some potential for weak surface
instability to filter into se mi along the actual surface cold front,
forecast to track across the forecast area between 09z and 12z tues
morning. this will sustain a chance of convection into tues morning.

a forecast update was issued to adjust evening winds and rain
chances based on current trends, otherwise no major forecast
adjustments were needed.

prev discussion...
issued at 305 pm edt mon apr 27 2026

discussion...

the transition from a mild, ridge-dominated pattern to a deep,
unseasonably cold regime remains the primary meteorological focus as
a massive 500mb closed low descends from central canada to stall
over the great lakes by the end of the work week. immediate
attention centers on a robust moisture surge tonight, fueled by a
potent 45-60 kt low-level jet (llj) ahead of a surface low tracking
toward lake superior. this surge will push pwat values above 1.25
inches as an 850-700mb theta-e ridge traverses southeast michigan
around 06z tuesday. despite this moisture, convective potential
tonight will be hampered by the diurnal minimum and a lack of
surface-based instability, likely resulting in a waning trend for
showers and elevated thunderstorms as they move east. this is
supported by latest hrrr and rrfs guidance, a trend further
supported by convection in the ohio valley effectively cutting off
the deeper gulf moisture. rainfall totals are forecast to average
between 0.20 and 0.50 inches, though steepening mid-level lapse
rates could support localized higher amounts in more persistent
elevated cores. the seasonably strong low (993 mb) tracking through
the western great lakes and strong low level jet leads to some
concern winds could reach/exceed 45 mph, as convectively induced
rise/fall pressure couplet approaches, but upstream trajectory
suggests the core strongest winds remain west-northwest of southeast
michigan. weakening of the line and arrival closer to sunset
expected to keep gusts in check, but will continue to monitor.

following a brief period of drier air behind a tuesday morning cold
front, attention shifts to a deepening surface low triggered by a
southern-stream shortwave lifting through the ohio valley tuesday
night into wednesday. while the bulk of this system`s moisture will
remain to our south, favorable forcing and a sharpening deformation
zone should spread rain showers across the southern and eastern cwa
through wednesday afternoon. as this wave exits, the 12z ecmwf and
cmc show high confidence in the large-scale polar trough fully
capturing the great lakes, ushering in a prolonged period of cold air
advection with 850mb temperatures plunging into the mid to upper
single digits below zero celsius by friday. this setup will foster
steep lapse rates and significant lake-induced instability, resulting
in significant cloud cover and "small core" isolated showers of
rain, graupel, and wet snowflakes through saturday. high temperatures
will struggle to reach the lower 50s (10 to 15 degrees below early
may normals). frost/freeze potential during the night time/early
morning hours for the end of the work week and weekend.

marine...

high pressure influence breaks down today as a cluster of
thunderstorms rolls through the ohio valley. most of the convective
activity associated with the mesoscale system will wane prior to
reaching the southern waterways, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot
be ruled out this evening. meanwhile, a low pressure system will
track into the northern great lakes later this evening, centered
within a potent/expansive low-level wind field. forecast soundings
across lake huron remain stable to the lake surface, but with flow
in excess of 40 knots within the lowest few hundred feet, opted for
a gale warning for the northern two thirds of lake huron. the period
of gales should be brief given the translation speed of the parent
wave, but latest model trends continue to support minor increases in
confidence for occasional gusts to gales. to further capitalize on
the energetic winds, additional convection is expected ahead of the
system`s warm front which should surge all the way up to the
straits. elevated storms emerge ahead of the surface boundary, and
should augment the stability profiles. small craft advisories remain
in effect for all nearshore waters until tuesday due to elevated
winds/waves. wind gusts could briefly approach gale-force for
saginaw bay and maybe the thumb. the system`s cold front then
crosses through the central great lakes during the day on tuesday,
leading to calmer weather and a shift to northwest flow as high
pressure builds in mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz441>443.

gale warning until 8 am edt tuesday for lhz361>363.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt tuesday for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
update.......sc
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.