Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
648 pm est sat jan 10 2026

.what has changed...
a winter weather advisory has been issued for inland erie county
pennsylvania from 11 am sunday to 1 am monday for 3 to 5 inches of
snow. also trended the forecast towards a faster transition from
rain to snow on wednesday afternoon which could have more of
an impact on the evening commute.

&&

.key messages...
1) winter returns sunday afternoon with blustery conditions and lake
effect snow showers with light to moderate accumulations in the
snowbelt.

2) windy conditions possible tuesday afternoon.

3) a strong cold front will arrive wednesday afternoon with an
active pattern and below normal temperatures setting up to end the
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

conditions remain mild this afternoon as surface low pressure tracks
northeast across the area ahead of an upper level low diving south
across the upper midwest. rain will blossom across the area through
this evening as large scale ascent increases. surface low pressure
deepens over lake huron tonight with an initial cold front wrapping
west to east across the area in the pre-dawn hours. an initial round
of scattered snow showers will accompany the front, with the best
coverage focused across our southern counties where locally around a
half inch of snow is possible.

the upper level trough axis crosses the area on sunday morning with
some semblance of a mid-level dry-slot bringing a break in snow
showers during the morning. a secondary cold front arrives at
the surface towards midday along with a return of mid-level
moisture. snow showers ramp up quickly during the afternoon on
sunday with reduced visibilities and accumulating snow focused
primarily in the snowbelt downwind of lake erie. the window for
snow will be somewhat brief, only lasting 4-6 hours in ohio with
a little longer duration in pennsylvania. the ohio snowbelt
will tend to range from 1-3 inches with the highest over the
higher terrain in geauga county with 3 to 5 inches for erie
county pennsylvania where a winter weather advisory has been
issued. there will be some component of snow squalls during the
afternoon with winds gusting between 30 to 40 mph and reduced
visibilities below 1 mile at times. wind chills will be feel
much colder as they drop into the teens.

the upper trough swings through fairly quickly and moisture will dry
out at 700mb in ohio by 00z while moisture downwind of lake huron
along with northwesterly upslope flow will maintain snow showers
into the evening in nw pennsylvania. intensities will drop off
significantly though and additional accumulations will tend to
be an inch or less during the evening.

key message 2...

temperatures rebound tuesday as southwesterly flow ramps up ahead of
the next trough moving into the upper midwest. a warm front lifts
north on tuesday with a tightening surface pressure gradient. a low
level jet with speeds of 40-50 knots will pass overhead at 850mb but
mixing depths are only forecast to reach about 2k feet. winds gusts
of 30-40 mph are expected in the warm air advection regime with
temperatures reaching 40-45 degrees.

key message 3...

following the warm up on tuesday, a strong cold front will cross the
area on wednesday with rain transitioning back to snow showers.
trended faster with bringing the colder air in wednesday behind the
cold front which will result in primarily snow by late afternoon.
some spread remains among the long range models with respect to the
evolution of the upper level trough. the 12z/10 gfs and ecmwf depict
a slower upper level trough that extends all the way to the
tennessee valley with more directional shear over lake erie while
the canadian favors a more consolidated upper level trough that is
east of lake erie by 06z thursday and more supportive of lake effect
snows.

both of these solutions maintain below normal temperatures through
the duration of the long term forecast. the gfs and ecmwf try to
develop a swath of more organized snow across pennsylvania on
thursday as that southern piece of energy curls northeast.
confidence is low on any particular storm track this far out as
models struggle to get a handle on the long range but opportunities
for lake enhanced snows will continue with considerable ice-free
areas on lake erie.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
mixed-bag of mvfr and ifr across the taf sites this evening,
associated with both lower vsbys and ceilings in rain.
conditions may briefly improve to vfr out west overnight, before
deteriorating to mvfr and ifr late tonight into sunday in snow
and low ceilings. the highest confidence for ifr and perhaps
brief lifr vsbys late tonight into sunday morning will generally
be south of the i-90 corridor as a disturbance quickly moves
east through the area. another round of snow will arrive from
the north and northwest with a trough late sunday morning and
afternoon, bringing reduced mvfr and brief ifr vsbys across the
entire area.

winds are favoring a west direction this evening behind a cold
front, 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. winds will
slightly diminish overnight, 10 to 12 knots, before increasing
out of the west to northwest behind a trough sunday afternoon,
15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 32 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain/snow showers tuesday and
wednesday, with lake effect snow showers possible in ne oh and
nw pa on thursday.

&&

.marine...
another high wind event will impact lake erie tonight and
sunday, with the strongest winds expected on the central and
eastern basins, as low pressure organizes over the central great
lakes this evening and moves into the eastern great lakes by
sunday morning while modestly deepening. wsw winds will first
increase to 20-30 knots as the cold front crosses the lake
tonight, further increasing to 25-35 knots from mid sunday
morning through the afternoon while turning wnw behind a
secondary cold front. this will build wave heights to 9 to 14
feet in the central and eastern basins. gale warnings remain in
effect from 00z sunday through 00z monday from avon point to
ripley, with small craft advisories farther west over the rest
of the nearshore waters.

wnw winds will diminish to 10-20 knots sunday night while
quickly turning sw by monday morning. this will set up another
period of strong sw winds as another low crosses the northern
great lakes monday, with corresponding sw winds increasing to
15-30 knots.

briefly quieter conditions are expected monday night before
another storm system impacts the region mid week. ssw winds will
increase to 15-30 knots tuesday, turning nw behind a strong cold
front by wednesday afternoon. nw winds of 10-20 knots will then
continue through thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 11 am sunday to 1 am est monday
for paz002.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est sunday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est sunday for lez144-145.
gale warning until 7 pm est sunday for lez146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...kahn
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
709 pm est sat jan 10 2026

.key messages...

- scattered snow showers develop overnight into the first half of
the day sunday. generally 0.5" to 1" of snow is expected by sunday
afternoon, with higher amounts of 1-3" closer to lake michigan.

- turning colder and windy tonight into tomorrow. winds gusts as
high as 30 to 35 mph will make for wind chills only in the single
digits through sunday.

- mild early to mid week with highs in the 40s. additional chances
for rain/snow arrive tuesday night into wednesday.

- colder by the end of the week into the weekend with snow
chances possible.

&&

.update...
issued at 709 pm est sat jan 10 2026

partial clearing has worked across the area in the wake of the
first trough, with 2 more quickly on its heels. the first,
extending from the chicago metro area to springfield was
producing some light snow, most widespread across central il.
vsbys are dropping to a mile or so with this area. across
chicago, more of a convective look with sporadic vsby drops in
light snow. overall pops look in decent shape, but may nudge up
far s/sw areas some over the next hour or so. after this passes,
another brief lull before the main shot of colder air moves in.
wind will pick up quite a bit with this feature, gusting to 30
mph or higher at times. any snow impacts look to be limited
mainly n of us-30 and with falling temperatures some slick spots
could occur where snowfall does occur.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm est sat jan 10 2026

a deepening low pressure system over the upper great lakes region
will phase with another low located over the ohio river valley,
bringing chances for rain changing to snow today. an occluded front
is currently draped across the area and an area of rain can be seen
on radar imagery lifting northwest. rain was slow to fill in this
morning and early afternoon, but precipitation is now becoming more
widespread. expect drizzle and light rain showers to continue this
afternoon across much of the area. it is likely that wet snow will
mix in at times, especially north of us 30. with surface
temperatures above freezing (highs in the upper 30s to low 40s this
afternoon), little to no accumulation is expected. snow may cause
reduced visibilities but is not expected to accumulate on roads this
afternoon/evening.

the low pressure system to our north has good upper level support
(upper level low over minnesota) and as this system continues to
strengthen, its associated cold front will drop through the midwest
and into our area tonight. winds back west/northwest and caa
intensifies behind the front. with a tightening pressure gradient,
wind gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph will be possible tonight and
through the day sunday. the upper level low also drops through our
area after midnight, with a strong push of 500mb vorticity. as
temperatures fall tonight, snow will become the dominant
precipitation type. there will likely be a brief lull in
precipitation this evening (3-6 hrs) before snow showers ramp up
through the overnight hours and into the day on sunday. lake
enhancement may also occur with convergent low level winds and the
colder air moving in over the still relatively warm and unfrozen
lake michigan (water temps in the mid to upper 30s today). overall,
accumulations through sunday afternoon should be between 1-3" across
far northern indiana and southwest lower michigan. further away from
the lake, 0.5-1" of snow is possible. drier air moves in sunday
afternoon/evening, cutting off any remaining snow showers. sunday
will be blustery, cold day with wind chills in the single digits for
much of the day.

dry monday and most of tuesday as high pressure builds in across the
eastern conus. temperatures will be above normal with highs in the
40s thanks to periods of waa both days. the active pattern then
resumes with northwest flow aloft bringing in another system by
midweek. chances for rain/snow arrive tuesday night into wednesday
with a low pressure system that moves through the upper great lakes.
it may be a very similar setup to today in that precipitation should
start off as rain with temperatures in the 40s tuesday. as the
system lingers on wednesday, gusty northwest winds usher in colder
air that will likely allow for a changeover to snow.

colder air follows for the end of the week into the weekend (highs
in the 20s and low 30s) with yet another system on the horizon.
better snow chances here with the colder air, although there is a
lot of uncertainty as to exactly where this weekend system tracks.
recent runs of the gfs and ecmwf have varied, with some runs
bringing this system into our area and others keeping in further
south across the ohio river valley.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 651 pm est sat jan 10 2026

main area of light rain was now well east with the next trough
extending from kord to kspi. a few heavier snow showers are
impacting kord/kmdw and should translate east, possibly
impacting ksbn near/after 1z for a short period. slightly larger
area of ifr vsbys and light snow noted from kpnt to kspi. this
should bypass ksbn with impacts to kfwa questionable as it
trends ese. for now left any impacts out of kfwa. winds will
pick up some which could lead to further reduced vsby in any
snowshowers.

main upper low and another trough dives in after 6z with winds
picking up further and maybe some additional snowshowers,
especially at kfwa where some lake enhancement is expected.
divided out the 2 periods since impacts will vary with each one.
thereafter, mvfr cigs should dominate with winds slowly
diminishing through the day sunday and sky conditions improving
late.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est sunday for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 4 am to 1 pm est sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...johnson
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
713 pm est sat jan 10 2026

.key messages...

- light accumulating snowfall expected again tonight with additional
minor accumulations into sunday morning.

- northwest winds of 30 to 35 mph will be possible sunday.

- below normal temperatures developing for the middle to end of next
week.

&&

.aviation...

initial wave of snow has quickly tapered off this evening, ushering
in temporary improvements to ceilings. most sites have experienced
ceilings lifting to mvfr, and expect further improvement to vfr
within the next hour or two as scattering expands within the dry
slot impinging on lower michigan. westerly winds are ramping up in
the wake of the departing system with gusts in the 25-30 knot range.
a secondary circulation spins across lower michigan overnight into
sunday leading to another period of light snow, focused between 09z
and 14z sunday. models are trending weaker with snowfall rates, but
expect some potential for brief ifr reductions with visibilities
further north. height rises and increasing stability build in sunday
midday sunday with low vfr and breezy conditions ensuing.

for dtw...mvfr, then vfr, and then back to mvfr late tonight into
sunday morning with additional light snowfall. low chance for ifr
visibilities. strong prevailing flow in excess of 20 knots possible
from 310 degrees midday sunday, presenting crosswind concerns.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet until 02z, then low
overnight, and then high sunday morning.

* high for snow late tonight into sunday morning.

* moderate for 310 degree crosswind threshold being met midday
sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 304 pm est sat jan 10 2026

discussion...

low pressure can be easily seen on satellite spinning across the
western great lakes this afternoon with precipitation underway
across much of southeast michigan. isentropic ascent and presence of
left exit region dynamics with the 500mb jet will lead to continued
precipitation this afternoon. as expected, surface temperatures are
hovering in the 33 to 37 degree range. snow remains the main p-type
across the tri-cities where lower wet bulb zero heights exist with
surface temperatures at 33-34 degrees. morning guidance has trended
slightly to a greater rain-melting snow mix p-type slightly north to
pontiac and towards flint for much of this afternoon. this trend
brings greater potential for snow accumulation holding below an inch
up to the i-69 corridor through 7 pm this evening and around a half
inch or less up to the m-59. at press time, highest rates focused
along the irish hills where a snow/melting snow will be favored
given the locally cooler profiles at the higher elevation and lower
wet bulb zero heights. have maintained accumulation in this area
even as guidance wants to remove it. thus, up to around half inch
will still be possible mostly on grassy/elevated surfaces across
these higher terrain areas and cannot rule out achieving an inch
through this afternoon either. morning guidance also pointed towards
lower potential for 0.25"/hr rates during a 2-3 hour period this
afternoon. portions of midland and bay county still may see upwards
of 1.0-2.0 inches of snowfall through 7 pm, though accumulation may
be limited here too by the warmer surface temperatures and weaker
snow rate potential. precipitation axis pivots northward after 00z
with a dry slot taking hold of most, if not all of southeast
michigan, for a period of time tonight providing a brief break in
precipitation.

center of the surface low pressure slides across northern lower
michigan and the straights this evening and east of lake huron by 7
am tomorrow. a progressive trough will then swing through michigan
on the behind surface low departure. moisture depths improves from
both wrap around moisture and lake moisture boost. cooling thermal
profiles help put better saturation through the dgz as lift with the
trough is able to generate a second round of snowfall. activity
should get started across midland and bay county around 3-4 am
tonight and will sweep through southeast michigan through the
morning with bulk of more organized snowfall easing by around 10 am
tomorrow morning after main trough axis passes east. progressive
nature of this activity should keep accumulations to an inch or
less. accumulations up toward 1 inch will be associated with the
potential for more organized snow squall like banding along the
trough aided by better mid-level lapse rates. i-69 and points north
will be most likely to experience these better snow rates. intensity
may be enough to create variable driving conditions with snow
accumulating on roadways as temperatures will have fallen into the
mid 20s.

northwest flow will bring some potential to see isolated to
scattered snow showers, mostly towards the thumb bringing potential
for minor additional accumulations through the afternoon. daytime
highs hold around freezing with increasing heights bringing an end
to any lingering light snow sunday evening. milder air begins to
push into the region monday into tuesday. pattern remains active
with the next chance for precipitation arriving tuesday. p-type
tuesday would see a rain/melting snow favored given the milder
airmass. a cool down towards more seasonal temperatures or below
will arrive by the late week period.

marine...

a strengthening low pressure system will continue to move over the
great lakes through the evening before departing into ontario and
quebec late tonight through early tomorrow morning. this will
maintain widespread snow through the area. departure of the low will
usher in a cold front tonight, boosting over lake instability as
cold air advection ramps up. given the degree of instability,
confidence to see gust to low-end gales has increased and a gale
warning is now in place. small craft advisories remain in effect for
the outer saginaw bay to port huron, initially for gusts around 30
knots. as wind direction veers from east to northwest, wave heights
quickly increase along the shoreline. a brief ridge of high pressure
builds in late tomorrow night to monday morning, ending gale
chances. breezy conditions below gales to continue into monday
morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 4 pm est sunday for lhz363-462>464.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est monday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 pm est sunday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...aa
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.