Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
293
fxus61 kcle 060715
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
315 am edt tue oct 6 2026

.what has changed...
there are no impactful changes with this morning`s forecast
update.

&&

.key messages...
1) the nice fall weather pattern will continue through this
week with warmer and above average temperatures expected later
this week and weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the current weather pattern over the upper ohio valley and
lower great lakes region is a general west-northwest flow aloft.
this pattern will continue to favor a mostly dry forecast with
occasional wind shifts or weak cold fronts passing through which
will seesaw our temperatures at times later this week. high
pressure over the region is bringing fair skies this morning and
some cool temperatures, especially away from the lake. today
will be sunny with high temperatures very close to our early
october seasonal averages ranging from the lower 60s for nwpa,
middle 60s for neoh, and upper 60s for nwoh. it will not be as
cool tonight with areas inland in the mid to upper 40s. high
pressure will exit eastward tomorrow and southwest winds will
increase 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph during the
afternoon. high temps on wednesday will get an added boost and
reach the lower to upper 70s across the area.

a weak and dry cold front will move across late wednesday night
into thursday morning which will knock our temps back down
slightly. another area of high pressure and quiet weather will
move down across the great lakes and ohio valley for the end of
the week. high temperatures thursday and friday will range from
the mid 60s to low 70s. there will be a shift in our weather
pattern with slight upper level ridging developing over the
region by the weekend. temperatures will warm back up saturday
and sunday into the 70s areawide. there may be a couple
locations that try to reach the 80 degree over nwoh this
weekend. the next chance of rain may arrive late sunday into
monday with a remnant tropical system or low pressure system coming
from the gulf coast region. it may brush by with some rainfall
for our area. there is alot of uncertainty at this time with the
forecast that far out. in the meantime, enjoy the great weather
this week.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period with some
scattered mid-level cumulus likely across ne oh and nw pa
through this afternoon. generally expect light and variable
winds across the area this morning before winds become
south/southwest at 5 to 10 knots late morning onwards.

outlook...overall vfr conditions are expected most of this
week.

&&

.marine...
marine weather and conditions will be relatively quiet for
today as high pressure tracks across lake erie this morning.
there is a notable land breeze that has develop overnight and
is located mainly over the open waters this early morning. the
land breeze may persist through sunrise before it fades away.
winds will become southerly to southwesterly today 5 to 10 knots
and waves around a foot. southwest winds will increase 15 to 25
knots tonight into wednesday ahead of the next cold front
tracking through the great lakes. there will likely be the need
for an additional small craft advisory tonight into at least
early afternoon wednesday. winds will shift from the northwest
10 to 15 knots behind the cold front wednesday night and
continue through thursday evening. waves will be 1 to 3 feet
behind the front. high pressure will build over lake erie for
the end of the week and into the weekend with westerly to
southerly winds 5 to 12 knots friday and saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
733
fxus63 kiwx 060910
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
510 am edt tue oct 6 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions are expected through this work week.

- after starting out with slightly below normal high temps,
highs slightly above normal take over for the end of the work
week.

- cold this morning with lows dipping down to the upper 30s for
some areas north of us-6.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 233 am edt tue oct 6 2026

forecast on track. this morning lows shaping up as advertised. a
few locations north of us-6 is trending to reach down into the
upper 30s. dew points have stayed elevated (mainly in the lower
40s) which will keep temperatures from dropping much further.
current temps here at the forecast office is 45 degrees as of
2:30 am edt.

temperatures will rebound nicely later today with western
portions of the cwa getting into the lower 70s with slight upper
level ridging pushing across the great lakes region. breezy
southerly winds with a few gusts to around 20 mph later today
into wednesday. wednesday looks to be warmer yet with most
locations reaching into the 70s and even a few locations mainly
south and west parts of the area getting near the 80 degree
mark. another weak upper level trough will then push into the
region by thursday and this will bring a an increase in clouds
and a shot of cooler temperatures for thursday and friday with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s each day. temperatures warm
once again this weekend into the beginning of next week with
highs back into the 70s across the area with a few locations
again getting close to 80. precipitation chances remain nil
through the forecast until late into this weekend for sunday and
at this time looks to be only for the far southeastern portions
of the cwa with that tropical disturbance pushing northeastward
from tx and into the ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 508 am edt tue oct 6 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals, with mainly high/mid
level clouds to contend with (sct/bkn around 10kft). otherwise,
calm/variable winds strengthen out of the s-sw through the day.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
050
fxus63 kdtx 060930
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
530 am edt tue oct 6 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably average temperatures return for the midweek period with
little to no rain chances.

- much above normal temperatures possible by next sunday.

&&

.aviation...

warm advection mid to high clouds will be around today. increasing
south-southwest flow in the low levels tonight will attempt to
develop low clouds (borderline mvfr/vfr), especially toward 12z
wednesday as a slow, weak cold front arrives. this front also brings
a slight chance of sprinkles/light rain tonight, but probabilities
are too low to include in tafs. the 00z nam appears to be too moist
in the low levels, as bulk of hi-res solutions struggle to saturate.

the pressure gradient will increase, and wind speeds tonight will
likely be higher compared to today, with sustained winds aoa 10
knots through the bulk of the night and gusts aoa 20 knots possible.
this will be particularly true at mbs where southwest winds funnel up
the saginaw valley.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 243 am edt tue oct 6 2026

discussion...

progressive shortwave ridging will carry the center of the surface
anticyclone out of southeast michigan to over the mid atlantic
states by this evening. strength and positioning of the surface high
will result in the development of a notable southwest gradient wind
with gusts later today of approximately 15 to 25 mph, highest speeds
north of i 69 particularly near saginaw bay. not surprisingly the
forecast soundings show good mixing through 5.0 kft agl with highs
today in the middle to upper 60s. persistent gradient tonight yields
warmer overnight temperatures with lows in the 50s areawide.

exit region to next pacific upper level jet packet will support
troughing into the western and northern great lakes wednesday. very
good model signal for the development of a cold front with a little
warm thetae surge in advance of the feature here wednesday.
convective allowing models suggest rain shower potential tonight in
the moisture transport corridor especially north of metro detroit.
forecast models suggest that perhaps best case 500 j/kg mucape will
be possible. the real problem and limiting factor will be the amount
of stability that is projected to remain in the 6.0 to 14.0 kft agl
layer. will be an interesting all or nothing scenario perhaps for a
shower or a rumble of thunder, with some favorable cloud top cooling
processes likely required to help steepen midlevel lapse rates. the
forecast currently resides dry for tonight. warm and mild wednesday
afternoon with temperatures reaching the lower to middle 70s. a good
little setup for some overachievement. rapid expansion of the
wavelength of the troughing may cause a disjointed frontal structure
with the nam suggesting active downward vertical motion through the
800-900mb layer already by 19-20z. this lower level subsidence
combined with very stable midlevel limits any potential for
measurable precipitation later wednesday.

moisture lean midlevels and a stable midlevel carries out dry
weather through the end of the week. near to below normal
temperatures are expected thursday and friday with highs in the 60s.
very impressive ridging continues to be advertised for the weekend
and beginning of next week. could be looking at a possibility for
temperatures to make a run at 80 degrees for sunday and monday
dependent on cloud. one item to watch for will be the possiblity of
gulf moisture to make a direct run at southeast michigan late
sunday. if that were to develop and clip southeast michigan there
would be high rainfall rates based on climatology.

marine...

influence of high pressure quickly wanes today as low pressure
slides across northern ontario resulting in strengthening south-
southwest wind locally. typical uncertainty wrt to thermal stability
given active warm advection. forecast soundings advertise borderline
neutral conditions near the lake surface when the strongest gradient
arrives early tonight. a few gusts to gales are possible over the
north-central waters given the favorable long fetch but local
probabilistic guidance continues to downplay a multi-hour period of
gales (<20% chance). running forecast still favors peak gusts in the
low 30kt range with no gale headlines, though small advisories are
effect for the saginaw bay/tip of the thumb into wednesday morning.
surface cold front eventually crosses wednesday flipping flow to the
northwest with persistent james bay troughing maintaining moderate
gusts (20-30kts) through thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt wednesday
for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...cb
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.