Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 150745
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
345 am edt sat aug 15 2026

.what has changed...
the risk for severe thunderstorms have decreased for tonight,
while increases for sunday. there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms on sunday across most of the area.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
sunday night. heavy rain may cause localized flooding tonight
through sunday evening. stronger storms sunday afternoon may
produce damaging winds though an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

2) rain-free conditions with high pressure are likely monday
afternoon through tuesday night before showers and thunderstorms
return wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a stationary front located well to our south in the lower ohio
valley will lift north across the area tonight in response to
low pressure moving eastward across the great lakes region.
several periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
areawide through at least sunday evening, when the cold front
sweeps southeastward across the area.

a complex of thunderstorms currently located in central
illinois will gradually shift eastward through the day, with
most model guidance initially presenting this as light isolated
to scattered rain showers spreading eastward through the day
saturday, well ahead of the warm front aloft. at some point late
this evening into tonight, should be convective redevelopment
as the 850mb theta-e gradient shifts eastward, and the llj
strengthens behind it. convection is likely to focus along our
southwest counties tonight. any convection that develops tonight
would pose a flash flooding risk due to pwat values in the
2-2.5" (near a climatological max), which would support
efficient, heavy rainfall. there is significant uncertainty with
placement and coverage of convection tonight, aided by run- to-
run variability. compared to the 12z guidance, most of the
latest 00z models have backed off on llj strength, and qpf
amounts by quite a bit tonight. this trend (and general model
guidance volatility) precludes the issuance of a flood watch
for the time being, though we will continue to monitor latest
forecast trends to see if one may be needed. if one were needed,
it is mostly needed for our southwest counties (e.g. hancock to
knox counties), where the flooding risk is greatest.

while heavy rain and flooding risk are the primary weather
hazards, strong wind gusts and a weak tornado cannot be ruled
out this evening into tonight, particularly for our southwest
counties (e.g. hancock to knox counties).

additional convection is expected throughout the day sunday
before the cold front sweeps through sunday evening, though the
evolution is even more uncertain. in general though, expect
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms affecting the entire
forecast area. high pwat exceeding 2" will provide a favorable
environment for heavy rain, leading to localized flooding.
mucape > 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear around 30 knots would
support severe weather (primary hazards are damaging winds and
perhaps a weak tornado), though this is a secondary hazard to
the heavy rain and flooding threat.

isolated to scattered rain showers may linger sunday night into
monday morning across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

key message 2...
high pressure will bring rain-free conditions to the region
monday afternoon through tuesday night. a weak low pressure
system will move across the great lakes region, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorm to the region on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
some patchy fog and lower stratus will likely produce mvfr and
isolated ifr conditions at southern terminals, but otherwise
expect vfr through most of this afternoon. isolated light
showers can`t be ruled out across the area between roughly 12z
and 18z today, but confidence in placement/coverage is too low
to include in the tafs at this point. even if it does rain,
significant impacts to flight conditions are not anticipated.
confidence in the timing of any late afternoon and evening
convection is pretty low at this point so have broad showers
with prob30 groups for thunderstorms this evening into tonight.
will need to make amendments and updates as confidence increases
throughout the day. either way, late day and evening showers/storms
could produce non-vfr conditions. winds will be light and
variable throughout the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms late saturday night through sunday night.
additional non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday.

&&

.marine...
east/southeast winds 10 knots or less are expected through early
this afternoon before east winds increase to 10 to 15 knots this
evening through tonight. winds will shift to the southwest on
sunday with flow becoming northwesterly sunday night through
monday. may need to consider small craft advisories/beach
hazards statements if onshore winds trend higher, but as of now
winds/waves should remain below criteria. winds will be out of
the southwest on tuesday and wednesday with offshore winds
possibly reaching 15 to 20 knots in the western basin as a cold
front approaches lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 150605
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
205 am edt sat aug 15 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of storms are expected through sunday
afternoon. the greatest severe risk will be late this
afternoon for areas east of i-69.

- heavy rain will be a concern with any thunderstorms and could
cause renewed flooding for areas south of us-30 that already
saw heavy rain this week. a flood watch remains in effect
through tonight there.

- dry conditions return sunday night and persist through
tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 205 am edt sat aug 15 2026

unfortunately, the next 36 hours will remain active with multiple
waves of convection, each one impacting the next to some degree and
leading to an overall low confidence forecast. the first round is
already lighting up over central il. water vapor imagery shows a
pair of robust mcv`s over the central plains and downstream, the llj
is ramping up once again with a fire hose of low level theta-e
advection (850mb dewpoints near 20c over central il). this activity
will continue to propagate eastward through the morning. the
environment currently over our cwa is not favorable for deep, moist
convection given a steady feed of light easterly low level flow
locally. of course the llj/moisture advection will modulate this to
some degree but the llj will be in a weakening state after sunrise
and midlevel lapse rates are very meager in our area. do expect
storms to impact our cwa roughly 11-17z but should weaken with time
and e/ne extent. some gusty winds can`t be ruled out in this
scenario, especially in our sw zones, but overall the severe risk
looks low in our area with round 1. while these storms are expected
to remain more progressive than recent days, the very moist
environment could still support brief heavy rain and our southern
counties really can`t take anymore at this point so flooding will be
a concern. no changes to the flood watch planned at this time.

one possible scenario to watch for though is a delayed arrival tied
to a more robust mcv as suggested by a few runs of the hrrr. if this
occurs, and convection can get more rooted to the surface, then
round 1 could feature a higher severe risk (as well as greater heavy
rain/flooding concerns) in the 15-18z window. while this remains a
possibility, it is not the preferred solution at this time due to
the poor initialization seen in those runs of the hrrr and the
overall synoptic and mesoscale picture at this point.

unfortunately, round 2 slated for late afternoon/evening will depend
largely on the exact evolution of the first round and any potential
subtle mcv`s ejecting out of upstream convection. an earlier/weaker
round 1 increases the concern for round 2 and vice versa. if there
is sufficient recovery time, mlcape values could rebuild to over
1000 j/kg and 40 kt winds at 700mb yield moderate 0-3km shear
profiles. organized convection will be possible in this scenario
with the best chances likely east of i-69. will have to watch the
mesoscale environment closely today as models hint there could be
greater than 200 m2/s2 of 0-1km helicity in the vicinity of this
warm front, very low lcl`s, and just enough instability to yield a
tornado threat. that is of course highly dependent on how morning
convection plays out and it is equally plausible both instability
and/or midlevel forcing fail, resulting in a complete null event.
very challenging scenario and requires close monitoring today.

additional storms then expected late tonight/sunday morning and
possibly again sunday afternoon. the story here is much the same
with uncertainties compounding for each successive wave of
convection. current best guess is that another nocturnal
strengthening of the llj will feature more storms with mainly a
heavy rain threat roughly 08-14z. at this point though, sun am
convection looks weaker and more scattered than tonight (driven more
by approaching midlevel trough/cold front than very strong moisture
flux convergence). however, much like today it won`t take much to
cause flooding in our south and the flood watch may need to be
extended through sun morning to account for this. cold front finally
passes late sun afternoon. exact timing and degree of instability
recovery remain very much in question, but some strong storms may
again be possible, especially south of us-24.

relief finally arrives sun night with dry conditions through tue.
another cold front passes on wed but this should be quick-hitting
and most guidance suggests tranquil weather late next week into next
weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 205 am edt sat aug 15 2026

increasing low level warm/moist air advection will bring increasing
chances for showers and storms as well as deteriorating flight
conditions later this morning. confidence in timing and coverage of
storms remains low given a high degree of spread in the guidance.
have therefore held with prob30`s in the timeframe of best chances
(roughly 13-18z). however both timing and coverage could change.
there is also potential for a second round at kfwa during the late
afternoon/evening but confidence is very low with that. do expect at
least mvfr ceilings for much of the day with ifr possible at ksbn
and within any storms.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through this evening for inz012-013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
oh...flood watch from 11 am edt this morning through this evening
for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 150700
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 am edt sat aug 15 2026

.key messages...

- gradually increasing chances for showers and possibly some
thunderstorms through tomorrow. heavy rainfall leading to localized
flooding is possible, mainly along and south of the i-94 corridor.

- dry early next week before showers return wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

a bit more clarity with the forecast, as the lead shortwave over the
midwest not as strong as forecasted yesterday and will result in a
flatter wave tracking near or just south of the southern michigan
border this afternoon/evening. sufficient instability to support
severe storms is not expected to cross north of the border
(supported by the machine learning). although, it still is a close
enough call for spc to maintain the marginal risk for lenawee and
parts of washtenaw/monroe counties. rain shower are still likely
along and south of i-94, with chances then diminishing as one heads
north. there is still some potential for 500 mb heights to close
off, which would enhance showers and allow for a slower progression
tonight. however, vast majority of solutions still highlight well
under 1 inch of rain.

the second wave coming out of the central plains looks to be the
stronger one now, moving through southeast michigan during the
favorable sunday afternoon period. this should assure a greater
coverage of showers across southeast michigan, as associated surface
reflection moves right through the middle section of the cwa.
with mlcapes aoa 1000 j/kg and 700 mb dew pts around 8 c, torrential
rain causing localized urban and low-lying flooding is a concern.
however, activity looks progressive enough. also, weak mid level
lapse rates and 0-6 km bulk shear values under 30 knots look
to limit severe chances.

dry weather returns for monday and tuesday as large a high pressure
over the western ohio valley extends into southeast michigan
underneath west-northwest upper level confluent flow.

a large upper level low/trough centered over hudson bay will direct
a strong pacific shortwave and strengthening surface low through the
central great lakes on wednesday, per 00z euro. cool canadian air
will follow, with 850 mb temps bottoming out around 6 c by friday.

&&

.marine...

area of high pressure is now centered over the eastern lakes this
morning. this high should keep the area mostly dry while winds veer
to the east and remain below 15 knots ahead of the next system. a
warm front will lift through this evening with winds responding by
veering southeasterly and increasing with gusts to around 20 knots.
there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon
across lake erie and lake st clair, with lesser chances further
north where dry air lingers from the ridge. increased chances of
precipitation tonight as a weak system works east along the state
line. higher chances of rain across the whole region on sunday as a
low tracking through the northern great lakes pulls a cold front
through the area. winds then shift to the northwest on sunday behind
the front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1106 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

aviation...

mid clouds continue to spread east across southern michigan.
ceilings are expected to remain vfr as these mid clouds arrive and
slow nocturnal cooling through the early morning hours. these clouds
should help limit fog development early saturday morning. skies up
near mbs may remain clear most of the night, right along the edge of
the cloud cover moving in from the west. thus, will need to keep an
eye on trends up that way for any br development up that way.

light winds prevail tonight, veering southeast tomorrow. up near
mbs, another lake breeze boundary is expect to push inland off of
the saginaw bay area. thus, locally expect winds to flip from the
east to northeast saturday afternoon/evening and increase in speed a
bit. not overly excited about precipitation chances for saturday.
models continue to delay the arrival of precipitation, now closer to
saturday night if it sneaks into our area. so have opted to keep
mentions of showers or thunderstorms out of the tafs for now, but
have introduced mvfr ceilings at most terminals.

d21/dtw convection...currently do not have thunderstorms mentioned
in the tafs. better chances for thunderstorm activity on saturday
looks to remain south of the d21 airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less into early saturday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......drk
aviation.....ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.