Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 172325
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
725 pm edt mon aug 17 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no major changes with this forecast package.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure builds into the region today with quiet weather
expected over the next couple of days.

2) showers and thunderstorms expected wednesday and saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure that brought showers and thunderstorms exits into
northeastern canada as the accompanying cold front drifts to the
southeast of the region into the mid-atlantic. zonal flow aloft will
take hold across the region today as high pressure begins to builds
into the mid-mississippi valley at the surface. the high will drift
to the east to be overhead, then exit to the east by tuesday
evening. there is potential for patchy fog for areas away from the
lakeshore tuesday morning due to the saturated low levels and ground
from the previous days precipitation and a fairly stable atmosphere
underneath the high. humidity will decrease through the day tuesday
and dew points will be in the low 60s providing some relief to the
"sticky" air we`ve had over the past several days. temperatures will
stay consistent in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region today
and tuesday with overnight lows a little cooler than they have been
at upper 50s to low 60s.

key message 2...
upper level troughing will move into southern hudson bay late
tuesday evening as a surface low pressure system moves north of the
great lakes. in general, this system is trending to be on the weaker
side and given that it will move through the area early wednesday
morning through the midday, potential for severe weather remains on
the low end. instability will be low with the southern and eastern
counties of the area being on the higher end of that. with that,
currently only general thunderstorms are expected wednesday midday
through the early evening. precipitation chances will decrease
through the evening as the cold front moves northwest to southeast
across the region. there may be some lingering showers across the
central ohio as some upper level energy moves through the ohio
valley.

there will be a brief break in precipitation thursday and friday as
high pressure builds in. low pressure will enter the great lakes
region saturday morning and bring a cold front through the area
saturday evening into early sunday morning. currently with that
timing, there may be some severe weather potential saturday
afternoon and evening as instability will have the chance to
increase with daytime heating. a few ai models are also picking up
on the severe weather potential, highlighting the eastern two-thirds
of the area. given that this is several days away, there is a lot of
uncertainty in timing and much of the details so a shift one way or
the other could impact the severe potential. will need to monitor
over the coming days to see how the system progresses.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
the main message for aviation weather will vfr conditions
expected through the next next 24 hours. there may be some light
mvfr fog 3sm to 5sm between 09z and 13z. we have tempo groups
mentioning this potential early tuesday morning. scattered to
broken high level clouds will drift through our skies but have
no impacts to aviation. winds will be light from the north or
northwest 5 to 8 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible on wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
north winds 10-15 knots this evening will become light and
variable overnight tonight as high pressure moves overhead.
southwest flow develops on tuesday as a cold front approaches
from the west. southwest winds will increase to 15-20 knots with
the passing cold front tuesday night into wednesday. this will
lead to wave heights building to 2-3 feet in the central and
eastern basins of the lake. winds shift northerly behind the
cold front wednesday evening and northeasterly by thursday as
high pressure approaches from the northwest.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...77
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 172333
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
733 pm edt mon aug 17 2026

.key messages...

- dry through the day tuesday with mostly clear skies and lower
humidity.

- the next chance of rain and storms arrives tuesday evening
into wednesday. the risks for severe weather and flooding are
low.

- dry weather returns again thursday and friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1246 pm edt mon aug 17 2026

an area of low pressure is currently exiting our area, with dry
conditions and decreasing clouds expected through the rest of the
day. clearing is already noted upstream on visible satellite
imagery, with decreasing clouds expected throughout this afternoon
and evening. winds from the north will keep temperatures seasonable
today with highs in the upper 70s as high pressure builds over the
midwest and great lakes regions. overnight, light winds and clear
skies will allow for lows to drop into the upper 50s and for patchy
dense fog to develop by daybreak tuesday.

most of tuesday will be dry with seasonable temperatures, sunshine,
and lower humidity. chances for rain and storms start to increase
tuesday evening for nw indiana and far sw lower michigan as a cold
front advances from the northwest. models are increasingly
lackluster on rain and storms as the front is disjointed with
better moisture, instability, and forcing. rain and storms will
be widely scattered tuesday evening into early wednesday given
weak moisture return ahead of the front and a displaced
vorticity maximum to our north as an upper level low pushes
through ontario. forecast soundings also show low level dry air
at 850mb tuesday night that will need to be overcome in order
for rain to make it to the surface. have maintained up to 60%
near lake michigan tuesday evening and 30-50% pops elsewhere
wednesday although it is possible the middle section of our
forecast area (between the toll road and us 30) stays mainly
dry given the poor dynamics; areas nearby lake michigan are most
likely to se scattered rain and storms tuesday evening/night
and our far southeast counties are mostly on wednesday given a
more favorable diurnal timing. at this time, risk of widespread
flooding is very low as is the potential for severe weather.

high pressure then builds into the great lakes and midwest regions
again by the end of the week. thursday and friday look to be dry and
seasonable, before another system potentially arrives for the
weekend. for now, have maintained low chance pops (20-30%) given
high spread in model guidance.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 733 pm edt mon aug 17 2026

dry conditions are expected through most of this period as a
short wave mid level ridge builds across the area tonight.
northwest wind gusts to 10 to 15 knots will diminish sharply
this evening as a low level ridge builds east across portions of
northern indiana into the ohio valley. mostly clear skies
tonight and light winds with the anticyclone should allow for
good radiational cooling conditions. crossover temps should be
reached easily, although ongoing dry air advection raises some
question as to the extent of fog development overnight. this
appears to be a good setup for at least patchy shallow fog
across the area with some uncertainty as to occurrence at
terminals. given this uncertainty will maintain previous
forecast idea of tempo mvfr conditions late tonight into early
tuesday morning. the anticyclone will be progressive through the
area on tuesday allowing for a return of southwest winds around
10 knots. some moisture return should build back into the area
in wake of this sfc high by early tuesday evening, more likely
across far northern indiana/southern lower michigan. will
maintain a dry forecast through 00z wednesday with expectation
of better rain/storm chances after this valid period as next
short wave trough approaches. instability magnitudes could be a
limiting factor for realizing appreciable thunder potential.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 180344
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1144 pm edt mon aug 17 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions persist through tuesday.

- a low chance of showers and thunderstorms starting late afternoon
tuesday across the saginaw valley and thumb, with a greater
potential for showers with isolated thunderstorms for all of
southeast michigan tuesday night.

- a few lingering showers possible early wednesday, then turning
drier again with temperatures slightly below normal for the end of
the week.

&&

.aviation...

horizontal convective rolls combined with lake breeze boundary
convergence has led to a higher based bkn cumulus deck at the
detroit terminals late this afternoon. cloud coverage will wane
quickly with the loss of daytime heating. a relatively dry low level
easterly flow will persist throughout the taf period underneath
subsidence and very dry air between 6.0 and 18.0 kft agl. just
looking at a possible broken cumulus deck at 5.0 kft agl tuesday
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the
taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tuesday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 223 pm edt mon aug 17 2026

discussion...

drier and slightly cooler post-frontal environment will continue to
settle across southeast michigan through the overnight period as a
diffuse bubble of high pressure builds under weak zonal flow aloft.
any lingering lower stratus will rapidly scour out during the
evening hours as greater drying takes hold. with lighter northerly
to variable winds at the surface and clearing skies, efficient
radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper
50s across the northern thumb and rural corridors, while urban areas
around metro detroit hover in the lower 60s. shallow patchy fog
cannot be ruled out in localized low-lying areas, though low surface
dewpoint depressions should limit widespread visibility impacts.

tuesday starts off with dry conditions and ample sunshine as high
pressure lingers over the great lakes. light surface winds will turn
southerly to southwesterly around 10 to 15 mph by afternoon,
initiating weak return flow moisture advection. high temperatures
will reach seasonable averages in the lower to mid-80s. dew points
will gradually creep back up into the lower 60s ahead of the next
incoming disturbance. an upper-level wave traversing northern
ontario will drag a mid-level trough and accompanying surface cold
front into northern lower michigan late in the day, expanding across
southeast michigan toward 00z. as forcing increases along the
frontal boundary, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will
push in from the northwest through the overnight period. modest
elevated instability will build ahead of the front. while severe
organized convection is not favored due to marginal thermodynamic
support, isolated stronger storms with brief downpours and gusty
winds remain possible. overall coverage diminishes from north to
south late tuesday night into wednesday morning. a smaller window
may emerge wednesday afternoon for shower production, mainly in the
thumb, as a secondary front slides through as more notable height
falls commence late in the day.

broader mid level troughing to govern conditions to finish the work
week. this occurs atop another sprawling area of high pressure. this
ensures dry and stable conditions both thursday and friday. resident
thermal profile marked by 850 mb temperatures of 10-12c. this will
keep boundary layer temperatures seasonable to slightly below late-
august normals. stronger mid level wave digging into the mean trough
will offer the next opportunity for unsettled conditions friday
night into the upcoming weekend.

marine...

diffuse region of high pressure now established over the great lakes
will support light winds for the remainder of the day. as this high
pressure system washes out east of the region, this will allow
southwest flow to become established for most locations tomorrow.
winds generally remain light with this transition to southwest flow,
but localized stronger gusts around 20 knots will be possible
through the saginaw bay given the more favorable fetch.

more active weather returns tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow
evening with the passage of a cold front. showers and thunderstorms
will be likely with the passage of the front as winds veer from
southwest to northwest in the wake of the front. a slight uptick
in winds are expected along and behind the front as cooler
conditions filter in. wind gust of 20 to 25 knots will be likely
with the frontal passage.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mr
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.