Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
088
fxus61 kcle 151121
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
721 am edt mon jun 15 2026

.what has changed...
a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather has been
introduced to locations generally along/west of i-77 for
wednesday night/early thursday morning with a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) east to roughly the ne oh/nw pa border.
otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged.

&&

.key messages...
1) a strong low pressure system will develop and move east
through the great lakes wednesday night into thursday. some
severe storms and gusty winds are possible.

2) a compact system will move east through the central great
lakes tuesday night into early wednesday, bringing showers and
thunderstorms into the area. a few storms may be strong in
northwest ohio.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a very anomalous low pressure system will move east across the
great lakes late wednesday into thursday. moisture will increase
as the low lifts a warm front across the area on wednesday and
showers and thunderstorms will expand east across the area as
the low`s associated cold front approaches from the west
wednesday night into early thursday.

at this point, the best instability/severe weather risk is to
the south/southwest of the area, but given the robust wind field
(including a 60 to 70 knot llj), significant instability will
not be needed for organized convection and strong to severe
thunderstorms. at this point it`s too early to get too far into
the weeds given uncertainty with mesoscale features/parameters,
but there certainly may be organized convection/strong to
severe thunderstorms wednesday night into early thursday
morning. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather has been
introduced to locations generally along/west of i-77 for
wednesday night/early thursday morning with a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) east to roughly the ne oh/nw pa border. will
also need to keep an eye on potential for heavy rainfall and
possibly flooding, as pwats are expect to increase to around 2
inches and there`s potential for some training if mean flow
becomes a bit more southwesterly. wpc currently has the western
half of the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

the wind field will be quite impressive for this time of year
and gusty non-thunderstorm winds are likely late wednesday night
through the daytime hours thursday. gusts to 30 to 40 mph are
likely areawide, although there will likely be a period of gusts
as high as 45 mph during peak mixing thursday afternoon. will
need to continue to monitor forecast trends; a wind advisory
can`t be ruled out at some point on thursday.

key message 2...
a relatively weak trough will move east across the area late
tuesday into early wednesday. there may be some scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of this feature early tuesday
evening with slightly higher shower/storm chances overnight
tuesday through early wednesday morning. there`s still uncertainty
in shower/thunderstorm coverage as convection moves east into
the area late tuesday night, but it`s possible that a few storms
along/west of the i-75 corridor could produce damaging wind
gusts and hail. overall, confidence in severe weather potential
is low at this point, but there is a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) of severe weather along and west of i-75. the best chance of
stronger storms will likely be to the west of the local area.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
patchy mvfr ceilings are being observed across far neoh and nwpa
as lake enhanced clouds slowly drift east this morning. current
taf sites impacted are keri and kyng, but as daytime heating
increases these ceilings should begin to lift and return
conditions to vfr. elsewhere, vfr conditions are expected to
persist through the entire period as high pressure becomes
dominant.

winds this morning will gradually increase from the northwest
to 5-10 knots by mid-morning before veering throughout the day
to become sustained across the area from the southwest by 00z.
after sunset, winds are expected to weaken for much of the area
to light and variable. near the end of this taf period, these
aforementioned southwest winds will gradually increase once
again to 5-10 knots.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
forecast tuesday afternoon through this friday.

&&

.marine...
periods of hazardous marine conditions are possible this week as
multiple frontal boundaries push east across the region. today will
remain calm as a surface high continues to push east, allowing for
northwest winds of 10-15 knots to gradually become southwesterly at
5-10 knots this evening. these conditions will persist into tuesday
before winds gradually increase to 15-20 knots as a warm front lift
north tuesday evening. these conditions are expected to persist
through much of wednesday, but given the offshore flow waves should
remain 1-3 feet across the nearshore zones through wednesday. will
have to monitor trends in winds for the potential need of headlines,
but at this point that potential appears very marginal.

late wednesday evening into the overnight hours are when the most
hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact lake erie. a
deepening surface low centered over the region will bring south-
southwest winds of 20-30 knots across the entire basin, increasing
waves to over 6 feet, possibly touching 10 feet at times in the open
waters. these conditions should gradually improve throughout the day
on thursday, but it is highly advised to remain off of lake erie
late wednesday through much of thursday given the extremely
dangerous conditions to small crafts and the increasing likelihood
of strong rip currents. will continue to monitor trends in this
storm system to determine appropriate headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
724
fxus63 kiwx 150956
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
556 am edt mon jun 15 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool weather persists today and tonight.

- a marginal risk for severe weather exists for tuesday with
damaging winds and hail the main threats.

- an enhanced risk for severe weather exists for wednesday into
wednesday night. uncertainty still remains with regard to this
risk.

- there`s a trend back toward dry weather for later thursday
and friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 402 am edt mon jun 15 2026

a broad mid level trough remains across the area for this work week.
that means we`ll be tracking waves moving across the area within it.

the first such wave passes through this morning on the leading edge
of surface high pressure, but it`s so dry behind the cold front that
minimal impacts are expected from it. in fact dew points have fallen
into the 40s and 50s behind the front as the higher theta-e air mass
has vacated the area.

a weak theta-e plume pushes through tuesday out ahead of another
fropa and accompanying vort max. dew points struggle to reach 60
degrees with a weak gulf connection limiting instability some (the
normal robust nam only showing 500 to 1500 j/kg of mucape), but
ample shear greater than 30 kts reaches the area after 21z closer to
when the cold front swings through. it is interesting that both the
nam and the hrrr initiate storms along what appears to be a pre-
frontal trough, and then again closer to the cold front which would
beg the question about debris clouds choke the cold front`s
storms. the nam`s rh plots would indicate a lack of debris
clouds, but it is something to keep an eye on. given long,
mostly straight hodographs and an eml passing through, this
would be conducive to hail and gusty to damaging wind. there are
pockets of 200 units of helicity showing up on the nam, but the
hrrr has much weaker helicity, which would make sense in an
environment with more westerly winds instead of southwest winds.

another more vigorous wave follows for wednesday and another vort
max forms out in front of it and heads eastward across southern
lower mi. still, the main question is about the warm front. will
there be enough time for it to lift north and allow for maximum
heating? the nam/ecmwf/gfs all seem to be keeping the better
instability south of the area during the daytime. however, the nam
finally brings sbcape into the area after 00z. perhaps that`s enough
to get some strong storms into our south? if this trend is real,
then all threats could be on the table. at this point, do appear to
pack quite a bit of moisture into the area with pwats reaching 1.75
to 2 inches and plenty of large scale ascent to squeeze out that
moisture. an interrogation of the available models indicates a 20 to
60 percent chance of 2 inches of rain in 24 hours from wednesday
afternoon into thursday morning mainly south of us-30 and west of i-
69. so even if the system passes by to the south, a good slug of
moisture makes it up here in conjunction with the surface low
pressure system.

things trend drier between later thursday and friday night as
surface high pressure noses in and slinks by to our south. another
weak wave attempts to bring rain and maybe some thunderstorms
saturday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 555 am edt mon jun 15 2026

surface high pressure and dry air are in control of the weather
today with vfr conditions. still some pressure gradient lingering
allows for 10 kt sustained gusts in sbn taf with west winds slowly
backing towards southwesterly by the end of the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 151036
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 am edt mon jun 15 2026

.key messages...

- seasonally cool temperatures persist this week.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast tuesday afternoon
and evening.

- showers and thunderstorms are forecast again wednesday afternoon
into early thursday morning. heavy rainfall is possible which may
lead to some localized flooding, especially in urban areas.

&&

.aviation...

a disturbance aloft brings an area of mid and high cloud across
lower mi this morning, but low-level dry air maintains vfr through
the day. weak instability this afternoon favors development of a
high-based diurnal cu field and breezy westerly wind to around 20
kt. wind then subsides and backs to southwest tonight ahead of the
next system that arrives later tuesday. additional mid and high
cloud works overhead tonight but vfr conditions persist through
tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are expected through tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 256 am edt mon jun 15 2026

discussion...

it will be a relatively chilly start to the morning with temps in
the 40s and 50s as a result of deep layer cold air advection over
the previous 12 to 24 hours. mid level negative vorticity advection
this afternoon will sustain a layer of subsidence from roughly 700
to 400mb. while sfc dewpoints will remain in the 40s, steep low
level lapse lapse through diurnal mixing and residual cold air aloft
will still support some high based cu. late day cloud depths may
support a sprinkle or some virga, with the dry air in the low levels
limiting much if any rain from reaching the ground. westerly flow
will support some subtle warm air advection. this diurnal boundary
layer growth should help boost daytime highs into the low 70s.

a short wave pivoting around the upper low in the hudson bay
vicinity will back the flow to the southwest tonight. despite very
dry air in the boundary layer, the gradient flow will hold mins in
the 50s. the southwest flow will advect a little warmer air across
se mi tuesday prior to the arrival of the large scale ascent
associated with the aforementioned short wave. sfc dewpoints
forecast to rise into the 50s and steep mid level lapse rates will
result in a weakly unstable environment with sb cape around 1000 to
1500 j/kg. the deep layer shear and instability profiles are not too
impresssive for severe weather. however, the inverted v signature on
model soundings courtesy of steep daytime low level lapse rates may
support isolated strong/damaging wind gusts from any thunderstorm
downbursts. with the large scale ascent associated with the short
wave forecast to track across se mi during peak daytime heating
tuesday, coverage of showers/thunderstorms tues aftn/evng should be
numerous to widespread.

another wave is forecast to pivot around around the hudson bay low
and track across the nrn ohio valley/srn great lakes wed night into
thursday morning. exit region upper jet dynamics are shown to
support an intense low level jet in excess of 60 knots. recent model
trends have suggested this inflow will drive the instability plume a
little farther north (into at least the southern portions of se mi).
given the shear profiles, strong/severe convection can not be ruled
out. with a warm front likely draped somewhere across se mi, model
solutions have a good signature for a frontal heavy rainfall event
as ample moisture is driven into the frontal boundary, with at least
current model solutions indicating a bullseye of theta e advection
in the 825-850mb layer across se mi. the aforementioned short wave
and associated occluded sfc low (forecast to track across lower mi)
will be fairly progressive, which may limit extreme rainfall.
however, 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts certainly seem plausible.

marine...

gradient winds and gusts wane gradually this morning amidst
lingering modest lower column flow. marginal small craft advisory
conditions (winds and/or waves) for saginaw bay and the thumb
nearshores may recover sooner than forecast. drier conditions
persist today as high pressure migrates across the tennessee valley,
extending into the southern great lakes. this also causes flow to
flip southwesterly tonight into tuesday. the arrival of a low
pressure system and it`s attendant cold front lead to showers and
thunderstorms beginning tuesday afternoon for the central waterways.
a brief break in activity ensues wednesday due to shortwave ridging,
followed by a secondary stronger system wednesday night into
thursday. more intense convection is possible with the wednesday
night system, capable of damaging winds and large hail. seasonably
strong gradient (non-thunderstorm) winds will also accompany the
low. gusts to gales cannot be ruled out thursday after shallow
mixing profiles deepen (albeit minimally) and 40-50 knot flow
materializes within the lowest 3 kft.

hydrology...

rigorous moisture transport across a warm front associated with a
west to east moving low pressure system will result in widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms from wednesday afternoon into
early thursday morning. probabilities for rainfall totals of three
quarters of an inch to one inch are high across se mi. recent trends
are increasing for a wide swath of 1 to 2 inch amounts across
portions of the area. the system is forecast to be relatively
progressive, which will keep probabilities for rain totals in excess
of 3 inches low. expect this rainfall will result in rises on area
rivers and may pose a flood risk to urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...sc
marine.......kgk
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.