Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 130623
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
123 am est fri nov 13 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were
needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect showers are expected through the weekend. a
rain/snow mix is likely tonight with light snow accumulations
possible in spots.

2) dry weather will return early next week with temperatures
rising above normal.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the gloomy weather pattern will continue as cyclonic flow aloft
persists over the northeastern conus through much of the
weekend. the current round of lake effect rain showers will
largely taper off through early this morning before shower
coverage increases as the next piece of energy pivots across the
region later this morning into this afternoon. by friday night,
steering flow will shift to the northwest and focus the
precipitation into northeast ohio. there will be plenty of
lake-induced instability with lake temperatures right around 13c
and 850mb temps likely falling to around -6c tonight, so precip
rates may be efficient at times. expect rain as the primary
ptype through early this evening before mixing with and possibly
even transitioning to snow after 7 pm/00z tonight. the main
challenge with the forecast is how cold temperatures get
overnight tonight; northwest flow off of the (relatively) warm
lake will most likely keep temperatures just above freezing.
with that in mind, snow will likely struggle to accumulate. the
current forecast has a trace to roughly half an inch across the
central highlands and into the secondary snowbelt areas of
interior ne oh/nw pa with locally higher amounts of around an
inch possible. a few high res models suggest that higher
amounts of at least a couple inches are possible where bands of
snow persist, especially in the event of a lake huron moisture
connection, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in where
exactly that could occur since it will probably be very
isolated. will need to keep an eye on guidance trends,
especially forecast overnight temperatures trend even a couple
of degrees cooler. either way, impacts to travel aren`t expected
at this point since wet snow accumulations will largely be
confined to grassy and elevated surfaces.

precip will transition back to rain during the day saturday as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s and rain
chances will likely increase across nw pa during this time. a
few wet snowflakes may mix with rain in nw pa late saturday
night, but a cold rain is generally favored as the upper trough
slowly starts to push east of the area and 850mb temps
increase. expect precipitation to gradually dwindle throughout
the day thursday as 850mb moisture decreases and a ridge starts
building in from the west.

key message 2...
high pressure will build into the region by early next week with
dry weather expected monday onwards. temperatures will slowly
increase throughout the week as the high gradually shifts east
with highs in the mid to upper 40s on monday giving way to above
normal mid to upper 50s by thursday.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
ceilings have been improving to vfr at most terminals as the
more widespread rain departs to the south. mvfr has settled back
into eri and will spread south out of michigan across northwest
ohio overnight and northern ohio terminals on friday morning.
lake effect rain showers will return with flow downwind of lake
huron focused across northwest/north central ohio friday morning
and shift east through the day. precipitation type is expected
to be rain during the day but will transition to a rains snow
mix at inland terminals like mfd/cak towards 01z. some
restricted visibilities are possible in the mixed precipitation.

winds will remain elevated at eri overnight with gusts to 25
knots. otherwise northerly winds of 10 knots or less will back
to northwesterly through the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through the weekend. some wet snow
showers may also be possible friday night through saturday
night.

&&

.marine...
north to northeast winds around 20 knots are expected this
morning before becoming more north/northwest and briefly
diminishing to 10 to 15 knots for a period this afternoon.
however, winds are expected to increase to 20 to 25 knots in the
western and central basins tonight through most of the weekend.
small craft advisories remain in effect through this afternoon,
but additional headlines (or extensions of existing headlines)
will likely be needed in a future update. northwest winds will
likely diminish to 10 to 15 knots during the day sunday and 10
knots or less by monday. wind direction will shift to the
west/southwest monday through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez142-
143-148-149.
small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
lez144>147.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...10
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 130554
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1254 am est fri nov 13 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect rain showers are expected to mix with and
changeover to snow late tonight into friday. another chance
for lake effect snow occurs friday night into saturday
morning. some light slushy accumulations are possible friday
and again saturday mainly on grassy surfaces. totals are
likely to stay under an inch.

- below normal temperatures today through the weekend followed
by slowly moderating temperatures into the mid and upper 50s
by the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1253 pm est thu nov 12 2026

now, with the area under a broad trough, various shortwaves dive
southward through the great lakes region continuing to keep the lake
effect machine invigorated into sunday. during this time, the cold
air at 850 mb lags behind and slowly drops southward finally
reaching the lower great lakes thursday night or early friday
morning. as a shortwave traverses lk mi midday today, this pushes
the lake effect rain area westward, into lots area. some wavering of
trajectories wiggles the main band eastward for a short period of
time early friday morning and possibly again around 00z friday
evening providing additional uncertainty to the forecast. periods of
drier air under the convective moisture column as well as dgz
moistening issues at times during this period likely impinge on
rates and ratios even with some negative theta-e lapse rates and
lake-induced instability to work with. the saturation issues
could cause some drizzle to occur at times. if the band sits in
any one spot in our area, it could snow, but then the rates are
in question given questions about column saturation issues. the
final vigorous vort max pushes through the area saturday
morning and this is also the time that 850 mb temperatures warm
a degree or two and 1000-700 mb shear looks to increase by the
time we get to saturday and so even though trajectories attempt
to gain a more northwest direction, many factors contribute to
weaker snow, especially as trajectories waver minimizing the
band`s residence time in any one location. initially, it was
looking like friday`s snow was going to be the more impactful
dose. however, if there is saturation issues through the column,
then it may be saturday produces more accumulating snow, but
saturday`s snowfall total ceiling is fairly low given the above
points. right now, only have a couple tenths of snow for either
time period. additionally, maxts are expected to reach back into
the 40s both friday and saturday and those should limit
accumulations especially farther from the lake. roadways are
starting warm from our recent above normal temp spell and it
would take heavy rates to get them to accreting temperature.
given the above points, if it snows, it would probably be to
grassy areas only.

as surface high pressure and mid level continue to build into the
area from the west, trajectories gain more of a southerly component
shutting off the lake effect machine and drying out the area. given
the place of the surface high overtime, a transition to a warm
advection pattern takes over and high temperatures are able to
gradually warm back through the 40s to the 50s by tuesday or
wednesday. however, low temperatures overnight will be at or below
freezing starting even tonight and won`t rise above 32 again until
late week next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1244 am est fri nov 13 2026

predominantly mvfr conditions at the terminals, with potential
for ifr briefly at ksbn with rain showers over the next couple
hours. otherwise, continued northerly flow with gradual
improvement to more persistent vfr conditions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 130509
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1209 am est fri nov 13 2026

.key messages...

- air becomes sufficiently cold for lake effect rain/snow activation
late tonight through much of today.

- minor slushy snow accumulation is likely across the thumb, mainly
near saginaw bay and near the lake huron shoreline, southward
toward the i-69 corridor.

- rain/snow showers gradually shift offshore tonight and saturday
with little additional snow accumulation.

&&

.aviation...

a mix of mvfr and vfr ceilings scattered across the southeast
michigan as a robust lake effect response is getting underway. a
south lake huron band is developing at the start of this taf period
with another dominant band forecast to develop off of saginaw bay
later this morning. this puts fnt and det with the higher likelihood
to be most impacted downstream of these two lake bands. it may be
cold enough at fnt for a more prevailing snow p-type by this
afternoon with det warm enough for more of a mix of rain and snow.
lake clouds will maintain mvfr ceilings with pockets of ifr possible.
there is potential for scattered rain/snow showers across other
terminals as well. shifting lower level winds towards the nw this
evening will begin to direct lake bands east of the terminal corridor
with some improvement in ceilings possible.

for dtw... lake effect response is getting underway across south
lake huron. the more dominant band looks to set up closer towards
det. however, pieces of this activity could break off and reach dtw.
this would be more focused late morning and early afternoon.
temperatures would be warm enough to support a rain-snow mix in this
outcome with minimal if any accumulation.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through this afternoon.

* high for p-type as rain through much of tonight. medium for rain-
snow with any precip towards mid morning into the early afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 pm est thu nov 12 2026

discussion...

there are no big changes to expectations on the forecast for the
overall lake effect event late tonight through friday. the inverted
surface pressure trough overhead this afternoon moves southward as
the sharp mid level trough moves east this evening. ne low level
wind trailing the system carries colder air into lower mi, colder
but still on the mild side in lake effect context. this leaves the
larger scale thermal environment dominated by warm lake huron
temperatures, warm adjoining se mi land areas, and the air mass
itself as supported by observations upstream across ontario this
afternoon. this is expected to extend the transition timing of rain
to rain/snow mix to all snow that is otherwise on track for mainly
after midnight through sunrise. slushy accumulation up to 2 inches
toward the thumb shorelines is the outcome with greatest forecast
confidence.

as lake effect instability ramps up late tonight and friday morning,
model solutions still offer dominant band locations off the south
shore of saginaw bay and along the thumb shoreline of lake huron
down to about the i-69 corridor. convective depth in model soundings
peaks around 10 kft with high cape density that enables updrafts
induced by lake instability reaching well through the dgz and in
excess of -20c. along with a stray lightning strike, this amount of
instability and high moisture content produces a greater than normal
cellular/convective character within the areas of dominant band
coverage defined by the mean nne wind field, leading to some spatial
and temporal variation on the most intense lake effect snow showers.
the 12/12z nbm cycle seems to reflect some of this variation with a
slight downward trend on max qpf, max snow accumulation, and some
broadening of the qpf/snow footprint. as suggested by hi-res models
and ensembles, a window for accumulation overachievement is still in
play given the chance of a colder profile caused by the high
precipitation intensity. the lake effect is highly convective, but
also highly variable, which considerably reduces predictability and
better monitored for short fused forecast adjustments in later
updates. the best forecast message for this update carries forward an
inch or two of slushy accumulation with a chance for localized
higher totals until bands shift closer to the shoreline or offshore
during friday afternoon.

a transition toward a nw flow configuration across lower mi begins
friday night to further the offshore lake effect trend. additional
activity grazes the thumb shoreline while thermal profiles remain
relatively warm and convective depth gradually diminishes after
midnight through saturday morning. the best chance for additional
light, slushy accumulation is during the diurnal minimum friday
night and saturday morning. however, boundary layer thermal profiles
warm sufficiently in model soundings for an all rain precip type and
really don`t cool back to near or below freezing before bands shift
more fully into southern lake huron saturday afternoon.

the highly amplified mid/upper air pattern shifts slowly eastward
sunday into early next week. low level cold air is carried out of
the great lakes as high pressure moves overhead, deactivating the
lakes and decreasing clouds sunday night. normal high temperatures
are now in the mid to upper 40s which is in the range of advertised
guidance high temperatures that gradually warm back above normal
toward the mid week period.

marine...

northeast to north flow takes hold today in the wake of a departing
low pressure system which will usher in cooler air across the
seasonally warmer waters of lake huron. this will continue to
maintain breezy conditions across the great lakes where gusts around
20 to 30 knots are expected. localized stronger gust potential will
be possible through the saginaw bay this evening given the more
favorable northeast fetch. some isolated gusts to gales will be
possible during this time. otherwise, small craft advisories remain
in effect for all nearshore locations given the elevated gusts, in
addition to the elevated wave heights found within the saginaw bay
and lake huron shoreline.

wind gusts then decrease slightly overnight, but the maintenance of
northerly flow supporting cooler air temperatures will retain gusts
around 20 to 25 knots across lake huron. additionally, a couple of
prominent lake effect bands are expected to develop overnight across
the central and southern lake huron basin. precipitation type will
likely be rain over the water given the warmer lake temperatures,
but a rain/snow mix will be possible closer to the shoreline. an
isolated waterspout remains possible with rain shower activity. high
pressure to build in on sunday, relaxing wind speeds and ending lake
effect rain chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est saturday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...bt
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.