Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
957
fxus61 kcle 060009
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
809 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

.what has changed...
the flood watch was canceled for lake, geauga, and trumbull
counties but expanded towards other areas of northwest and
central ohio.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through monday
night, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding is possible.

2) the next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be towards the
end of the week as a cold front enters the region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region through monday night, particularly in the afternoon and
evening, as weak low pressure slowly drifts east across the ohio
valley.

for the rest of today, the storm complex that impacted much of
northeast ohio earlier today has exited southeast of the area. in
terms of the flood watch, not expecting much additional rainfall
into this evening, though will keep it in effect for now given
continued impacts, particularly in the trumbull/mahoning areas.
anticipate we will be able to cancel the flood watch a little
earlier than the current 10 pm expiration time. otherwise, will need
to monitor potential development of isolated to scattered showers
and storms along a weak boundary, roughly draped nw to se from
toledo to canton. not anticipating showers and storms to be as
organized as the cluster that impacted northeast ohio earlier today,
but heavy rain is possible regardless.

attention then turns towards monday as another round of showers and
storms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening hours,
potentially impacting a similar area as today. once again, heavy
rain will be the main threat with these showers and storms given
anomalously-high pwats, weak flow, and skinny cape profiles.


key message 2...
after brief high pressure builds across the region on
wednesday, attention then turns towards the next low pressure
system and cold front thursday into friday. confidence continues
to increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
thursday afternoon into friday. can`t rule out some stronger
storms, supported by modest westerly flow aloft of around 25
knots and will continue to monitor the threat. depending on the
southern progression of the cold front, could see additional
showers and thunderstorms develop friday afternoon and evening
across the southern portion of our area.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
scattered showers and storms continue across the middle portion
of our forecast area. should see this continue through about 02z
before dwindling thereafter. a band of showers should then
develop late tonight across lake erie, streaming into parts of
northwest ohio, and maybe close to lake erie in northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania. ceilings and visibilities will be
variable between vfr, mvfr, and ifr, with an area of ifr mostly
likely in central ohio late tonight into early monday morning.

ceilings should gradually improve to mostly vfr by early monday
afternoon. additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
monday afternoon/evening, which should be most likely towards
the southern and southeastern part of our forecast area.

outlook...non-vfr with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible through tuesday afternoon. scattered thunderstorms are
also possible thursday afternoon through friday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
northeast flow will persist on the lake tonight into monday with
a low pressure system moving south of the lake. northeast flow
will increase to around 15-20 kts on monday afternoon and may
allow for some brief 4 ft waves for the central basin, which
would prompt a small craft advisory. a residual trough will
remain over the ohio valley on tuesday into wednesday and allow
for lighter northeast flow on the lake. weak high pressure will
build into the area for thursday and flip flow to the southwest.
a cold front will move through the region on friday and shift
winds back to the northwest for friday. outside of monday
afternoon and evening, marine headlines are not expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch until 10 pm edt this evening for ohz010-011-
018>022-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
567
fxus63 kiwx 052310
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
710 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms (40-60%) will impact some areas
this afternoon into early evening with locally heavy rain the
main concern. isolated wind gusts to 40 mph are also possible.

- a few showers may linger east of i-69 overnight into monday
morning with some further development along and south of route
24 late morning into early afternoon monday.

- drier and somewhat less humid conditions arrive for tuesday
and wednesday before chances for showers and storms return for
the remainder of the forecast.

- there is a moderate risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 100 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

near term focus remains on a combination of a departing mcv and
another weak trough dropping south across the area over the next 24
hours or so. an area of partial clearing has allowed for the
initial development of showers along and north of us 30. these
should continue to intensify and expand in coverage through the
remainder of the afternoon aided by mucape of 1000-1500 j/kg.
however, a weak flow and very limited shear will result in
little severe threat, with the main concerns being heavy rain as
warm layer pushes over 14,000 ft and pwats of 1.8 to 2" are in
place. no plans for any sort of watch, but short fuse flood
headlines may be needed where areas of heavy rain have occurred
in recent days or where training cells impact a given area.

coverage should diminish after sunset, but many models keep at least
some widely scattered to scattered showers around, especially in
eastern areas as the trough moves across the area. by morning it
should bisect the forecast area with some hints of renewed
development late morning. while current pops may be too far nw, have
left in place for now. any precip should wind down by sunset monday
if not before.

high pressure builds in for a few days, allowing dewpoints to lower
somewhat (60s vs 70s) and ending precip chances until late wed night
and moreso the remainder of the week as a series of waves move in as
a semi zonal flow sets up. positioning of a stationary boundary and
influences of multiple rounds of storms makes it difficult to bring
much detail to the later periods so blend of models left in place.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 704 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

low circulation continues to move slowly eastward but will also
bring showers and thunderstorms across the area this evening.
mvfr cigs for both sites through the overnight period however,
kfwa will see a drop into ifr cigs between 07-14z mon. mvfr
vsbys in thunderstorm rains expected at times. cigs begin to
lift on monday as the low moves further east out of the area
around and after 17-18z mon. light northeasterly winds up to
8-10 kts expected through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
336
fxus63 kdtx 060355
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

.key messages...

- lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight.

- dry conditions prevail monday and tuesday, with highs mainly in
the 80s.

&&

.aviation...

moist conditions north of a low pressure system slowly exiting to
the east will maintain the potential for pockets of shower
development thru the morning period, mainly across the detroit
airspace. this corridor will remain most susceptible to some
intervals of visibility reduction both within any heavier showers
and owing shallow fog as near surface saturation remains high. lower
cloud production will remain more limited with northward extent,
with vfr favored going foward at fnt/mbs. one last window for shower
production may emerge, mainly across the detroit corridor monday
morning before chances end. slightly drier air will gradually work
into the region from northwest to southeast through monday. this
will allow any lingering lower cloud to scatter with time.

d21/dtw convection...none

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet through monday morning. low monday
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 pm edt sun jul 5 2026

discussion...

a compact mid level deformation axis associated with a meso scale
mid level short wave feature produce widespread rain across the
southern sections of the forecast area today. the highest rainfall
totals (estimated at 2 to 4 inches) occurred early in the day south
of the i-94 corridor where deep convection occurred. this wave
continues to slowly depart to the east. remnant mid level
convergence/deformation looks to persist into the early evening,
with the convergence axis now shifting farther north toward the i-69
corridor. various high res solutions indicate some areas of
showers/isolated thunderstorms to continue to affect the area
through the night as se mi will continue to reside within deep layer
moist axis and within lingering deformation on the north side of a
broad 850mb low centered over ohio. ongoing surface based instability
development has mainly been focused across the western sections of
the cwa late this afternoon, with weak elevated instability
persisting through the night.

mid level ridging and sfc high pressure will expand across the
western and northern great lakes monday, while mid level troughing
holds across the eastern great lakes. the resident deep layer
moisture will trend southward during the course of the day while
east-northeast winds gradually advect a drier and more stable
airmass across se mi. model soundings indicate mixing depths limited
to 5k feet, which will equate to forecast highs in the low 80s
considering early day cloud cover. the easterly flow will warrant a
little cooler readings downwind of lake huron. the mid level ridge
and associated surface high pressure will become centered over lower
mi tuesday, with the corresponding deep layer subsidence and dry air
supporting a dry forecast. full solar insolation will boost
afternoon highs to low to mid 80s.

the mid to late week pattern will feature a zonal flow across the
northern tier of the us with the next feature of interest being a
progressive short wave and associated frontal boundary. nbm places
the best chance for convective with this feature on thursday, although
the spectrum of ensemble members suggest a timing anywhere from
thursday into friday. the thermal region through the end of the week
supports temps near to slightly above normal readings through the
end of the week (highs mainly in the 80s).

marine...

rain showers and a low chance for a thunderstorm will continue
across the southern great lakes as a humid airmass continues to
reside across the great lakes. high pressure will build in tomorrow
and tuesday which will greatly mitigate rain chances and will
maintain light winds. the exception will be through the saginaw bay,
as the favorable northeast flow brings localized stronger winds with
gusts 20 to 25 knots. small craft advisories remain in effect across
the saginaw bay today but will drop tonight as gusts diminish aob 20
knots. winds are expected to peak back around 20 to 22 knots
tomorrow, but will remain just shy of small craft advisory
thresholds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sc
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.