Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
367
fxus61 kcle 101014
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
614 am edt sun may 10 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather with below normal temperatures is expected
through tuesday. there is high confidence in widespread frost
on monday night.

2) a system will enter for tuesday night through thursday,
bringing the next chance of rain for the region. some storms
and moderate rainfall could be possible on tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a reinforcing cold front will make a dry passage during the
first half of the day before high pressure builds into the
region. this high pressure system will stay in place through
tuesday and promote dry weather, while keeping temperatures cool
for mid-may. clouds will remain across the region today and
tonight, and this will likely keep low temperatures more in the
upper 30 to lower 40s, limiting the frost threat for tonight.
however, clearing conditions will enter for monday, which should
allow for a clear, calm, and decoupling atmosphere and low
temperatures in the 30s are anticipated. there is high
confidence in a widespread frost on monday night and some
eastern areas may even have a freeze, if lower 30s can be
achieved. high temperatures on monday will generally be in the
50s. highs on tuesday will be in the upper 50s to 60s with high
pressure moving out and some return flow entering the region
ahead of the next low pressure system.

key message 2...
unsettled weather will return starting tuesday night, as a low
pressure system moves through the great lakes region, bringing
rain chances through thursday. some instability may build on the
warm side of the system on tuesday night and this could support
some initial thunderstorms through wednesday. however, the late
diurnal timing and waning instability should preclude any
organized severe weather threat. there could also be some
moderate rain on tuesday night into wednesday morning with the
thunderstorms and will need to watch for trends with that part
of the forecast for any future flood concern. rain will continue
through thursday as the system departs to the east and rainfall
should be lighter on the back end of the system. temperatures
for the middle of the week should be fairly seasonable in the
60s, perhaps a touch below normal, compared to the upper 60s for
mid-may.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
a surface ridge builds slowly from the canadian prairies and the
north-central united states through 12z/mon. simultaneously, our
regional surface winds trend around 5 to 10 knots and primarily
nw`erly to ne`erly. as the upper-reaches of a cold front
continue to exit se`ward from our area, isolated rain showers
associated with the front should exit to the east by ~13z/sun.
these showers may be accompanied by brief mvfr. otherwise, dry
weather and vfr are expected through 12z/mon.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected tuesday afternoon through wednesday night. non-vfr may
linger across eastern portions of our area due to rain showers
and low ceilings this thursday.

&&

.marine...
a ridge affects lake erie as the embedded high pressure center moves
from the canadian prairies toward atlantic waters near the mid-
atlantic states through tuesday. primarily nw`erly to n`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots through monday should become variable in
direction monday night through tuesday. waves should trend 3 feet or
less.

the ridge should exit e`ward tuesday night through wednesday night
as a low wobbles ese`ward from the northwestern great lakes toward
lake ontario and weakens gradually. accordingly, a warm front should
sweep n`ward across lake erie tuesday night and cause se`erly winds
to veer to s`erly to sw`erly as winds freshen to around 15 to 25
knots. a cold front should then sweep e`ward across lake erie late
wednesday morning through wednesday night and cause winds to veer to
w`erly to nw`erly as wind speeds ease to around 10 to 20 knots.
waves should build to as large as 3 to 6 feet during the tuesday
night through wednesday night time frame. forecast trends may prompt
the eventual issuance of a small craft advisory.

behind the cold front, another high pressure ridge should build
from the western great lakes through thursday. on thursday,
w`erly to n`erly winds should ease further to around 5 to 15
knots. in response, waves should subside to 3 feet or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 100816
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
416 am edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool today and monday. highs around 60 to 65.

- frost possible tonight and monday night, especially north of
highway 30.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and
tuesday evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 256 am edt sun may 10 2026

a large upper low was over james bay. the upper level flow was
topping the upstream ridge and was helping to tap into very
chilly air deep into the northern canadian interior. this cold
air will be over the region and bring much below normal
temperatures today and monday. there is a good chance for frost
tonight and monday night. given the advancing stage of
vegetation and sensitive plants, frost headlines are likely to
be needed for tonight and monday night. the upper low will lift
out monday as a strong shortwave tops the upstream pacific ridge
and races southeast. showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move into the area tuesday afternoon.

a weakening subsidence inversion will be over the area early
tuesday. the gfs profiles includes moderate shear but relatively
limited cape values of generally less then 500 j/kg. all
considered, thunderstorms should remain below severe levels;
however, strong gusty winds to 50 mph and hail up to 3/4 inch in
diameter is likely with the stronger storms.

lingering showers should end early wednesday with a brief lull
before the next system arrives. an upper level ridge will build
over the area as short wave trofs continue to bring chances for
showers into the weekend. high temperatures should rise well
above normal from around 80 to 85 this coming weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 145 am edt sun may 10 2026

a low level baroclinic zone will continue to shift south out of
northern indiana through the remainder of the overnight hours.
another upstream wave across southern il will likely interact
with the low level front for additional rain shower chances, but
to the south of the terminals. another weak short wave is
expected to dive southeast to the southern great lakes by this
evening, but this should only bring some increased vfr clouds in
the 5-7k ft layer. vfr conditions should persist through this
forecast period. northwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range are
expected this afternoon during peak mixing, trending to light
and variable for tonight as low level anticyclone settles across
the region.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
933
fxus63 kdtx 100848
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
448 am edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- a return to below normal temperatures starts today and lasts
through early to mid week.

- there is a chance for patchy frost in sheltered areas late tonight
into monday morning.

- frost is much more likely monday night.

- the next chance of rain arrives late tuesday into tuesday night.

&&

.aviation...

increasing mid clouds (7-10 kft) today as low level lapse rates
steepen up with daytime heating. winds prevailing from the west-
northwest, turning modestly gusty during the afternoon with gusts
around 20 knots. winds decrease this evening, but some mid clouds
may persist, particularly across the southern taf sites as an upper
level disturbance tracks through far southern lower michigan
overnight into monday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through monday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 348 am edt sun may 10 2026

discussion...

yesterday`s cold front has reset temperatures back below normal for
today and sets the stage for cooler conditions lasting through the
early week period. afternoon highs average 10 to 15 degrees below
normal each day followed by another round of near advisory frost
potential at night until tuesday.

nw wind at 10 to 20 mph maintains steady low level cold advection
today requiring every bit of available may 10 sunshine for readings
to climb back into the 50s. the updated forecast leans high
temperatures toward the lower end of the guidance range before
leveling out as high based cumulus expands coverage. these daytime
heating dependent clouds decrease after sunset as surface high
pressure approaches lower mi from the midwest. consensus of
deterministic models and href mean maintain gradient wind veering
toward the north and holding around 5 knots. this gradient wind is
not ideal for widespread frost, although min temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s are reachable given the clear sky and reinforcement of
colder air.

the low level thermal trough is not fully established across the
great lake until mid day monday judging by model 850 mb temperature
forecasts that drop into the 0 to -5 c range. this occurs as surface
high pressure becomes centered overhead under confluent nw flow
aloft to solidify both cool temperatures and dry weather. monday
night is then set up to be the coldest in this stretch with the
greatest potential for frost. wind is light and variable to calm for
most of the night under clear sky which brings late night min
temperatures down to near freezing in the thumb to mid 30s across
the rest of se mi outside of metro detroit.

high pressure already shifts eastward from lower mi by tuesday
morning as the next low pressure system moves into the midwest from
central canada. this system quickly brings the next pattern of
showers into the great lakes with moisture supplied by a gulf
modified continental return flow across the plains. near categorical
shower coverage keeps temperatures in check despite increasing sw
wind, and then the associated cold front quickly moves through the
region tuesday night. the frontal passage leaves temperatures to
wallow below normal again by wednesday as highs are projected only
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

the latest extended model runs show thursday and friday becoming a
transition period in the larger scale mid to upper level pattern.
there is good agreement among the ensemble systems that indicate the
mean flow shifting from a high amplitude long wave trough over the
great lakes and ne states to more of a zonal configuration from
coast to coast. this adds confidence to a meaningful warming trend
during the late week and next weekend while lowering the
predictability on precipitation systems tied to fast moving short
waves within the larger scale flow.

marine...

eastern edge of high pressure over the central conus holds across
the region today into monday maintaining light to modest nw winds
(aob 20kts). isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible
this afternoon and evening across lake huron, but otherwise drier
conditions hold through monday. next low is set to sweep across the
great lakes late tuesday bringing widespread showers and a few
chances for thunderstorms mainly south of port austin. in advance of
the system, southerly winds strengthen though with ongoing warm
advection, thermal stability over the waters is expected to cap peak
gusts around 30kts. moderate nnw winds follow wednesday as cooler
air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing gradient
should generally keep winds under 30kts. high pressure briefly
follows to close out the work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...bt
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.