Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
947
fxus61 kcle 101736
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
136 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

...18z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
patchy fog and low clouds are expected across the area this morning.
rain chances for saturday have increased a little bit.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers with some isolated storms are possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly along and south of us 30 in ohio. severe weather and
flooding hazards are not expected at this time.

2) humid conditions with shower and storm chances will return on
saturday. there is some potential for a stronger storm during
saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a frontal boundary will approach and stall out over the
forecast area today. on the north side of the boundary, the air
mass will moderate a little with temperatures in the 70s and dew
points falling a bit into the 60s and maybe upper 50s. however,
the south side of this boundary will remain humid and
relatively unsettled with highs near 80 degrees and dew points
in the 70s. this air mass will remain favorable for more shower
and storm development this afternoon and evening. the bulk of
the development should be south of the forecast area where
greater instability will build. however, some activity will
develop across the southern portion of the forecast area with a
mid-level shortwave moving through the region. with a limited
thermodynamic environment and storms should progress with the
shortwave, severe weather and flooding hazards remain very low
at this time. the surface boundary will push south for thursday
night into friday with high pressure entering the region, which
will allow for 36 hours of dry, comfortable weather.


key message 2...
unsettled weather will return to the ohio valley for saturday
as a mid-level shortwave will move through the ohio and
tennessee valleys behind friday`s high pressure system. this
wave will allow for a warm front to lift back over the area,
allowing temperatures back into the 80s and dew points back in
the 60s to lower 70s. this shortwave will provide some lift for
shower and thunderstorm development, especially on saturday
afternoon and evening. with activity currently expected during
peak heating hours, there is a low end threat for a stronger
thunderstorm, as the atmosphere may be unstable enough to allow
for some gusty winds to materialize. however, details may change
over the next couple of forecast cycles, especially if timing
is faster or slower or if the wave is less aggressive in lifting
the warm front north. activity could linger into sunday with a
cold front trying to approach from the northwest, extending from
a low pressure system moving through canada. return flow is
aggressive across the region early next week and may try to keep
this feature north, as the main frontal support quickly departs
to the northeast. if the front doesn`t reach the area, the area
may end up staying dry with activity to the north.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
well developed cu field and eroding low clouds from this morning
has yielded mvfr ceilings at kcle, kyng, and keri. the other taf
sites will remain with vfr conditions through 03z friday.
surface dewpoints remain in the upper 60s. ceilings will erode
at most taf sites overnight. near calm winds and cooling will
allow radiational fog to develop at sites. will insert a tempo
group with mvfr to ifr condition from 08z to 12z due to
mist/fog.

winds will remain out of the west to southwest this afternoon,
4 to 7 knots and become light and variable or favoring a weak
northwest direction overnight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings and/or patchy fog
friday morning. non-vfr possible again on saturday in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
a stalling frontal boundary will eventually settle south of the lake
today. winds behind this boundary will veer from the west to the
north with time today. high pressure will build into the region
tonight and winds will become northeast and increase a bit to 10 to
15 kts. waves could pick up a bit with the long fetch flow over the
lake, but it may just result in an elevated swimming risk overnight.
the high moves east for friday, allowing for easterly flow.
southerly flow will return starting friday night through saturday
night with a warm front moving back across the lake. a cold front
will attempt to cross the lake on sunday, bringing westerly flow
again to the region. however, it is possible that this feature gets
stuck north of the lake and southerly flow will persist into early
next week. there is a bit of uncertainty in the pattern for early
next week to be too confident on the mean wind direction on the
lake. overall, not expecting any marine headlines at this time but
there may be some periods of moderate swimming risk.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...fz
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
457
fxus63 kiwx 101725
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
125 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry through friday with seasonable temperatures and
low humidity.

- next chances for rain/storms will be saturday, with the highest
chances of 40-60% south of us 24.

- dry, slightly warmer, and more humid sunday and monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

surface high pressure building across the midwest and eventually
into the great lakes later tonight will yield mainly dry conditions
through friday. the cold front that was supposed to come through
yesterday slowed quite a bit from what was originally anticipated
and stalled just to our northwest this morning; as that front now
makes its way through our forecast area today, an area of showers is
passing through north-central indiana as seen on current radar.
while i can`t rule out an isolated storm, a tight moisture gradient
in the low levels and sbcape of 1000 j/kg or less should keep
widespread chances at bay. highs in the upper 70s are expected
today. it will be noticeably less humid with dewpoints only in
the 50s once the front passes through and northwest flow ensues
on the backside, ushering in much drier air tonight.

much like last night, patchy dense fog is possible given clear skies
and light winds. should radiation fog occur, visibilities should not
be as low as they were this morning given a lack of saturation at
the surface. i would expect that areas south of us 24 would be most
primed for fog to develop today given the showers currently moving
through. friday will be a fantastic day with high pressure overhead
providing low humidity, highs near 80 degrees, and lots of sunshine!

our next chances for rain and storms arrive starting before daybreak
saturday and continuing, especially south of us 24 once again,
throughout the day saturday. far northwest indiana and southwest
lower michigan may stay entirely dry given that the better dynamics
for this rain/storm potential will be to our southeast. a warm front
will lift northward saturday, and with a developing upper level
trough over the great lakes, scattered showers and storms appear
increasingly likely for our southeast half. there is some
uncertainty on how far north and west the rain will get, with our
highest pops of about 40-60% south of us 24 on saturday. the ecmwf
has the trough at 500mb slightly more amplified and further east by
saturday afternoon than the gfs and nam do so that will make a
difference too as to where and when the highest pops occur. severe
weather is not expected at this time on saturday.

zonal flow continues aloft as yet another upper level ridge
builds across the central conus, so have maintained warmer than
normal temperatures and low chances (20%) for pops through
sunday and monday. since it is still several days out, there is
still a lot of uncertainty in how the overall synoptic pattern
evolves early next week. some models have a frontal system
coming through the midwest and upper great lakes tuesday while
others keep the upper level ridge dominant over the area. there
are no clear signs of fall in any of the long range guidance as
our forecast area looks to remain sandwiched between hot and
humid air to our south and cooler, drier air to our north for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1255 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

passing shortwave/cold front bringing widespread mid/upper level
clouds today but relatively dry low levels will maintain vfr
conditions at the terminals. a few sprinkles are possible at
kfwa but little/no impact anticipated. clouds will slowly
scatter overnight and there is some patchy br potential fri
morning but confidence is very low and will hold off on
including in the taf`s for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
676
fxus63 kdtx 101710
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
110 pm edt thu sep 10 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with near-normal, pleasant temperatures returns for
the end of the week.

- mainly dry weather continues through the weekend, accompanied
by slightly above-normal temperatures.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure to support vfr conditions through tonight. for this
afternoon, few-sct cu will be possible through the early afternoon
under a more expansive cirrus deck aloft. all cloud coverage
decreases tonight, leading to generally clear skies and light winds.
this will bring back fog chances prior to daybreak. given the
northeast flow, kfnt to kptk will exhibit highest chances for fog,
followed by kmbs. the metro terminals retain the lowest confidence
for any visibility restrictions for fog. outside of fog chances, vfr
conditions to then continue into tomorrow.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms will occur through the
taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 am edt thu sep 10 2026

discussion...

quiet weather expected through the weekend as high pressure settles
over the region. upper level long wave flow will be low amplitude
and progressive with the bulk of the flow locked over southern
canada as the southern conus ridge continues to hold. main surface
baroclinic zone remains draped along the ohio valley north of the
ridge which will keep the bulk of the precip south of the region.
incoming mid level shortwave will be positively tilted which will
delay forcing the remnant thermal trough out of the region so expect
a slowly modifying airmass today through saturday. once the mid
level trough axis passes east saturday, warmer southerly flow will
return to the region providing a return to the lower 80s briefly
ahead of a cold front.

the front will sweep through the region late saturday evening and
looks to be free of precip as the model sounding show a great deal
of dry air through the column to contend with and the forcing will
be well to the north over ontario. the one thing to watch for will
be a plume of moisture overriding the boundary to the south saturday
which will try to reach into far southern mi. most likely, this will
be held to the south as the front compresses the ridging and pushes
it east making that region unfavorable to northward advancements of
the moisture plume, but a slower front may allow some moisture to
reach a little farther north. next chance of showers and
thunderstorms arrives sunday night as a more amplified trough passes
over the region.

marine...

moderate northwesterly flow in place today following yesterday`s
cold front. gusts across the northern portions of lake huron
expected to peak firmly below 30kts, likely closer to 25kts, as the
core of cool advection holds over northern ontario. winds steadily
being weakening this evening as high pressure builds over the central
great lakes. said high then drifts overhead through friday night
leading to benign marine conditions to close the work week. active
pattern returns late this weekend as low pressure lifting through
the northern great lakes drags a cold front into the area before it
looks to stall over lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.