Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
424
fxus61 kcle 150632
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
232 am edt fri may 15 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast. warming trend to commence as
expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) warming trend with summer-like conditions early next week.

2) slightly cooler mid week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
significant upper level pattern change with the exit of the upper
level trough that cooled the region down today into the 50s and 60s
once again, with 40s over nw pa. temperatures rebound to near normal
friday in zonal flow aloft, which will become upper level ridging
through the weekend into early next week. 850mb temperatures by
monday will have climbed into the upper teens, translating to near
90f in places for the warmest weather of the season so far. a
stationary front will drape itself in the vicinity of the cwa
saturday through sunday with a return for showers and storms, where
a marginal threat for severe clips the far western zones for late
saturday. this stationary boundary becomes a warm front sunday
night, assisting in the warm up for early next week that will be
characterized by well above normal temperatures. dewpoints to climb
to late spring/summer values in the 65-70f range as convective
chances increase tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

key message 2...
another upper trough digs into the great lakes for the end of the
week, dropping temperatures back to normal or slightly below normal
for the area, but this will not be a return to the cooler type
weather that has plagued the area for the first half of may. rain
chances will continue behind the cold front through wednesday night
before largely coming to an end thursday and temperatures closer to
the 70f mark for thursday.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
high pressure and mostly clear skies are in place to start the
taf period. the high will move to the east coast through friday
night with mid-level clouds moving west to east this afternoon
and evening and sct-bkn clouds near 5k by tonight. the taf
period is expected to be dry with a chance of precipitation
arriving late friday night into saturday morning. winds will be
generally light and variable through 14z before developing out
of the south/southwest at 6-12 knots on friday. eri is likely
to see a wind shift to the west northwest for a few hours in the
afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms on
saturday. additional non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are
lower. non-vfr may return on tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds of 5-10 knots will back to southwesterly today
as high pressure shifts east of the area. south winds will
develop tonight and become southwesterly at 10-20 knots on
saturday. a frontal boundary will settle south and stall over
the lake on sunday with easterly winds. there is potential for
showers and thunderstorms on both saturday and sunday which
could result in erratic winds on lake erie. a warm front lifts
back north on monday with a return to south/southwesterly winds
of 10-20 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 150644
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
244 am edt fri may 15 2026

.key messages...

- a warming trend starts today with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s. highs in the low 80s saturday then mid to upper 80s
sunday through tuesday.

- 20-30% chances for light rain showers today south of us 24.

- increasing humidity and moisture through the weekend allow for
daily periodic rain and storm chances.

- strong to severe storms possible saturday and again monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 am edt fri may 15 2026

infrared satellite imagery shows high level clouds building in this
morning ahead of low chances for light rain showers today. a
decaying complex of showers and storms coming out of missouri and
illinois aided by an incoming weak 500mb shortwave will lead to
20- 30% chances for light rain mainly south of us 24 later this
morning and early afternoon. a warming trend begins today and
continues into the weekend. southerly winds ramp up alongside
diurnal heating with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph. although
skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today, southerly winds and
modest waa will lead to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s by
the afternoon.

a stronger 500mb shortwave moves in saturday morning and as a warm
front lifts northward across the area, moisture and instability will
increase. scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, some of
which may be strong to severe. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather on saturday. a gulf connection starts to
develop saturday with southerly winds. highs in the upper 70s to low
80s and dewpoints rising to around 60 will provide an increasingly
favorable environment for marginally severe storms. should any
strong to severe storms develop, the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts as mucape increases to 1000-2000 j/kg throughout the day.
winds parallel to the warm front could also yield backbuilding or
training alongside potential for heavy rainfall in any storms.

while daily periodic chances for rain and storms exist through early
next week, sunday has the lowest chances. as the warm front lifts
northward, it may stall near or just north of the indiana-michigan
state line and could spark a few isolated storms sunday in the
vicinity of i-80/i-90 (20-30% chances). mucape will be 1000-2000
j/kg once again during peak heating with around 30 kts of bulk
shear. highs climb into the low to mid 80s with southwest winds
pulling in more moisture into the ohio river valley and upper great
lakes regions.

much better surges of moisture arrive monday with dewpoints into the
upper 60s and pwats of 1.5" to 2". our forecast area will be well
into the warm sector by monday with breezy southerly winds allowing
for a strengthening gulf connection. scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms may develop, especially in the evening into the early
overnight hours. forecast soundings show ~40 kts of bulk shear as
the llj ramps up in the evening. spc currently has our area in a 15%
slight risk on monday, although considerable spread in model
guidance and uncertainty remains. sbcape of 1500-2000 j/kg will be
present during peak heating, although there is uncertainty in how
much and how quickly it could wane. additionally, meager low to mid
level lapse rates monday evening aren`t as favorable for severe
weather. with a cold front lagging until tuesday to sweep through,
lift may also be a limiting factor.

depending on what happens monday and how much the atmosphere can
recover tuesday, the cold frontal passage then may also spark
another opportunity for strong to severe storms. the timing of
the cold front is uncertain and significant spread in model
guidance exists in temperatures on tuesday. cooler, drier
weather follows midweek in the wake of the cold frontal passage.



&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 113 am edt fri may 15 2026

winds remain light and variable as high pressure slowly drifts
eastward. infrared satellite imagery shows high level clouds
drifting in from the west ahead of a weak upper level
disturbance that will bring light rain showers mainly south of
us 24 today. although additional mid and high level clouds will
build in throughout the morning, ksbn and kfwa are expected to
remain dry with vfr ceilings throughout the taf forecast period.
southerly winds will ramp up in accordance with diurnal
heating; by midday into the afternoon, expect southwest winds to
be sustained around 12 kts with gusts as high as 20-25 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 150750
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
350 am edt fri may 15 2026

.key messages...

- dry and warmer today.

- summer like heat and humidity sets up this weekend and continues
through early next week. the potential exists for temperatures in
the middle 80s monday and tuesday.

- multiple opportunities for thunderstorms over the weekend and
early next week with low confidence on timing and coverage.

&&

.discussion...

shortwave ridge will pass to the east this morning while a zonal
pacific jet streak streches from the central great lakes to the
pacnw with an associated low pressure system crossing through
northern ontario. at the lower levels, moist and warm advection will
occur throughout today aided by the s-sw flow. will see a bump in
temperatures this afternoon to around 70 degrees. the better
moisture will arrive in the mid and upper levels with weak pv
advection. this will mainly bring an increase in cloud cover through
the first half of the day with a brief period of lower cloud cover
this evening.

tonight into tomorrow will see a convective system develop across
parts of the midwest with its associated mcv tracking into southeast
michigan through tomorrow morning. timing amongst the hi-res models
has showers and thunderstorms associated with this mcv moving
through mainly between 09z and 14z saturday timed with the better
thetae advection. as it stands now, the unfavorable timing at the
diurnal minimum and the lack of strong instability will likely keep
the potential for isolated severe weather pretty low. given this
limitation, we remain outlooked for general thunder. a secondary
window for showers and thunderstorms will be possible saturday
afternoon along a boundary that is laid out around the southern
michigan border. the afternoon will hold the best chance for
instability to build, which will also supported by the greater warm
air advection that will support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
however, coverage of any convection looks sparse by saturday
afternoon with better coverage held to south of the state. will
continue to monitor trends, but outlook for day 2 also remains
general thunder.

the main story for sunday through the early part of next week will
be the summer like conditions and the continued chance for
thunderstorms. a strong pacific northwest trough will lead to
downstream riding that builds across the great lakes sending 850mb
temperatures to around 15c and 925mb temperatures to around 20c. this
will draw temperatures up to around 80 degrees for most of the area
outside of the thumb on sunday. a warm front will be drawn northward,
which could kick off some scattered thunderstorm activity, but mid
level capping may limit better convective potential. monday and
tuesday will be warming into the mid/upper 80s range depending on
cloud cover which may temper the higher values. strong moisture
transport will also send surface dewpoints into the 60s with near 70s
possible. the associated thetae air will be more than supportive of
continued thunderstorm chances through the early week, but
uncertainty remains in timing and overall coverage.

&&

.marine...

flow reorients out of the south this morning as high pressure
departs the ohio valley. winds strengthen gradually through the day
as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of low pressure that
impacts the region this weekend. gusts over saginaw bay will have
the best opportunity to briefly touch 25 knots, although will be
working against an increasingly stable environment so no small craft
advisories have been issued at this time. surface troughing triggers
an initial wave of showers and thunderstorms early saturday morning,
before washing out over the western great lakes through the daytime.
this creates an unsettled pattern characterized by dry periods mixed
with periods of showers and thunderstorms that lasts into early next
week. relief from this pattern then arrives mid-week with the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1142 pm edt thu may 14 2026

aviation...

high pressure in control tonight supporting light winds and cloud
cover confined to cirrus. mid-cloud increases friday
morning/afternoon tied the leftovers of decayed convection from the
upper midwest. deep layer of drier low level air and light intensity
to any remnant elevated shower should prevent precip from reaching
the ground. winds organize out of the southwest by friday morning
with peak gusts expected to hold at or below 20kts.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are in the forecast through
friday. slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm saturday morning
at the very end of the current forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......mv
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.