Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
506
fxus61 kcle 300512
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1212 am est tue dec 30 2025

.synopsis...
a strong low pressure system will continue to move northeast towards
nova scotia as a surface trough lingers across the area today into
wednesday. another low pressure system will move across the great
lakes region on wednesday, dragging a cold front east wednesday
night into thursday. high pressure will build in on friday.

&&

.near term /through today/...
have taken down all high wind warnings and wind advisories for
the forecast area. winds are trending down across the board and
observations no longer support keeping the headlines up. there
could still be a 50 mph gust along the lake erie shoreline and
will continue that mention in our official winter weather
message. wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph remain possible through
tonight across the entire area.

previous discussion...
hazardous conditions are being observed across the entire area this
afternoon as a result of a strong low pressure continuing to
influence weather across the region. as this low continues to shift
northeast towards nova scotia, a strong surface trough will linger
and continue to influence the weather across northern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania. there are 2 primary hazards that will
continue to impact the area through the period. these hazards
include the strong winds and snowfall.

focusing first on the strong winds, there currently remains wind
gusts from the west-southwest of 40-50 mph being observed.
occasionally these gusts exceed 50 mph, but those seem to be
isolated to areas closer to the lake shore. as the center of the low
drifts northeast and the surface trough becomes established, winds
will back to become northwesterly with gusts gradually weakening to
around 30 mph by tuesday morning. elevated wind gusts from the
northwest of 20-30 mph are expected to continue through tuesday
night. as a result of these elevated winds, a high wind warning/wind
advisory remain in effect for counties along and west of i-71
through 10pm this evening and for counties east through 1am tuesday.

as winds gradually back this afternoon, areawide light snow showers
will become focused across the snowbelt as lake effect snow begins
to develop. these snow showers have the potential to be quite heavy
as 850mb temps of -14 to -16c push south and a strong convergent
boundary develops along the lakeshore. in addition, conditions
across the area, including the very cold temperatures and gusty
winds, will pose a risk of snow squall develop. the window for the
heaviest snow is likely late this evening across neoh and nwpa,
continuing through tonight for nwpa. snowfall rates of up to 1"/hour
coupled with blowing snow could result in whiteout conditions.
impacts could be seen to this evenings commute and the tuesday
morning commute. total snowfall accumulations between now and
tuesday afternoon are expected to range from 8-10 inches across
nwpa, 4-6 across the ohio snowbelt with the exception of geauga
county where locally higher amounts are likely. by tuesday
afternoon, there could be a brief lull in lake effect snow showers
as a positively tilted trough axis moves over the area, allowing for
winds to gain a bit more of a westerly component and 850mb temps
warm a bit across the western basin. opted to maintain at least
chance pops given the mesoscale components, but rates on tuesday
would be much less. as this shortwave trough moves east, another
round of lake effect snow is possible tuesday night with an
additional 2-4 inches possible in the ohio snowbelt and 6-8 inches
possible in nwpa. there remains some uncertainty as to where this
second lake effect band sets up and whether it will linger close to
the lakeshore with southwest flow or clip northern portions of the
county`s. as a result of this uncertainty, which will strongly
influence the snowfall totals, opted to maintain the timing of
current winter headlines but this will need to be monitored to
determine if there is a long enough reprieve in snow between the
first round today/tonight and the next round. will expand/upgrade
headlines as needed, but staying status quo for now.

temperatures this afternoon are much cooler than previously
forecast with observations all reporting in the upper teens to low
20s. these cold temperatures will lingering into the overnight hours
with wind chill values falling into the single to sub-zero digits.
temperatures on tuesday and tuesday night will be in the low to mid
20s with wind chills in the single digits to teens.

&&

.short term /tonight through thursday night/...
wednesday morning, a clipper system is expected to push east across
the great lakes region, moving another cold front southeast
wednesday evening into the overnight hours. this system will bring
another push of widespread snow across the area with generally 1-2"
being observed as a direct result of the synoptic system. this cold
front will be associated with strong frontogenesis and ample
moisture in the 0-2km layer. winds will also increase within this
layer through a period from 00-06z wednesday night. as a result,
there is a widespread potential for snow squalls nye night. this
could make for hazardous travel conditions as the holiday night
comes to an end and people should plan accordingly to try and avoid
travel during the hazardous conditions.

across areas of the snowbelt, increased snowfall amounts are likely
as heavy lake effect snow becomes established late wednesday and
persists to some capacity through at least thursday afternoon.
current forecast suggests that additional winter weather headlines
will be needed for this mid to late week system.

by thursday night, a few light lingering lake effect snow showers
are possible across the snowbelt, however should become more
sporadic as moisture in the low levels begins to dry with an
approaching high pressure system. there remains a good bit of
uncertainty with the end timing of the lake effect, so this is valid
to change in future updates.

highs on wednesday should be in the mid to upper 20s before the
clipper system arrives and brings highs into the upper teens to low
20s on friday. overnight lows will remain in the teens through the
period.

&&

.long term /friday through monday/...
on friday, quieter weather should return to the area as high
pressure builds east and allows for precipitation to end across the
entire area. on sunday into monday, some models are hinting at
another low pressure system, albeit weaker, moving east across the
region but there is quite a bit of divergence among models at this
point. if this system does come to fruition, could see another round
of lake effect snow impacting the snowbelt sometime late sunday into
monday. highs through the period will generally remain in the upper
20s to low 30s with overnight lows falling into the mid teens to low
20s.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
lake effect snow showers are all across the region early this
morning and will continue for the bulk of the overnight.
ceilings are largely mvfr to vfr between 2500 and 3500 ft.
however, the flight categories for the terminals are driven by
the visibility with the snow showers and vary from lifr to vfr.
overall, the trend should be to mvfr for most terminals. ktol
continues to be lucky with dodging the snow and the lower
ceilings with the downsloping off the irish hills of southern
michigan. there should be a large break in the snow for most
this afternoon. the next system will start to approach tonight
into wednesday with more snow. conditions will likely return to
ifr for ne oh/nw pa toward the end of the taf period. winds
across the region have settled down considerably with gusts in
the 20 to 35 kt range, highest near lake erie.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are expected across the airspace with
lake effect clouds and snow across the region through thursday.

&&

.marine...
have transitioned the storm warning on lake erie to a gale
warning through tuesday afternoon. sustained winds of 50 kts are
no longer expected with winds trending down through the evening
and overnight. gale force winds remain expected through tuesday
afternoon for much of the basin.

previous discussion...
as of 20z, water levels likely near lowest point in the western
basin at around 70 inches below low water datum and will take
several hours to return to the more normal levels.

in the meantime, gale and storm warnings continue for lake erie, for
the western basin and central and eastern basins respectively.
expecting a gradual decrease in the winds that have gusted 40-55kts
today. this will be a slow process however, and could take until
early tuesday for the lake to completely come down below gale force
winds/34kts. wave heights today continue to push 20ft in the eastern
basin, 14-18ft in the central basin, and lesser heights in the
western basin largely due to varying water depths that do not
support large wave heights because of the low water conditions.

winds will largely remain onshore in a west southwesterly to
northwesterly direction 15-30kts through friday. wave heights
will not come down below 4ft in the central and western basins
until that time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
ohz011-012-014-021>023-089.
lake effect snow warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for
ohz013.
pa...winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
paz001.
lake effect snow warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for
paz002-003.
marine...gale warning until 7 am est this morning for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for lez145>147-
165>167.
gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez148-149-168-
169.

&&

$$

synopsis...04
near term...04/sefcovic
short term...04
long term...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...garuckas/26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1224 am est tue dec 30 2025

.key messages...
- lake effect snow showers continue overnight, but will continue
to decrease in intensity and diminish in coverage. gusty winds
to 25 to 30 mph will still result in some blowing and drifting
snow issues however.

- a pair of clippers bring a quick dose of snow tuesday night
and wednesday night.

&&

.update...
issued at 834 pm est mon dec 29 2025

fairly shallow based lake induced instability will become
increasingly shallow overnight as low level subsidence and onset
of weak low level warm advection lower inversion heights. lake
effect snow showers have become more cellular in nature over the
past several hours and significant vsby reductions will be
short-lived for rest of night given cellular nature. additional
accums should be generally an inch or less with expectation of
an overall continued diminishment. most of this light
additional accumulation should be across eastern portions of
the current winter weather headline areas as some dry air
entrainment should limit additional accumulations across far nw
indiana. some consideration given to dropping headlines early,
but given still some wind gusts up to around 30 mph for next 2
to 4 hours with blowing/drifting snow potential, will allow
winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings to continue
with exception of northern laporte county.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 224 pm est mon dec 29 2025

a powerful low pressure system will continue track northeast. as it
does so, wind gusts will steadily decline. lake effect snow showers
persist this evening, but are expected to diminish overnight. very
cold much of this week with a couple of clippers tuesday night and
wednesday night.

a 980mb low located northeast of lake huron continues to produce 45
to 50 mph wind gusts as of this writing over our forecast area. the
synoptic burst of snow this morning, associated with a 65-70 knot
500-mb jet has cleared the area but a couple of stronger lake effect
bands continue to spill well inland reaching far northwest ohio.
thus, blowing snow and highly variable conditions are anticipated
for the evening commute, even for areas north of fort wayne. steady
lake effect snow and windy conditions persist for those within the
winter storm warning and winter weather advisory. visibility has
improved notably since the morning hours but conditions remain poor
allowing the winter headlines to continue. for the wind advisory, a
partial clearing was completed for some areas below 39 kts.
otherwise, frequent gusts of 39 kts or more continue, especially in
northeast in and northwest ohio.

lake effect snow tapers off tonight as dry air entrainment occurs in
the low-levels and after midnight, inversion heights fall. the
trough axis now lifting northeast will pull the lake effect bands
steadily to the northwest, limiting the fetch as well. wind gusts
tonight decreasing toward 25 mph will still be enough to cause
blowing and drifting snow which may impact the tuesday morning
commute as well.

the next upper-level low dives in tuesday night, followed by a
second, stronger 100kt jet at 500-mb wednesday night. thus, wednesday
night`s clipper could be stronger than the preceding one. drying out
for the late-week period with temperatures moderating toward
freezing for the weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1224 am est tue dec 30 2025

the main trough that has caused the snow and wintry weather begins
to pull eastward away from the area into tuesday meanwhile surface
high pressure pokes into the area. as a result, dry air helps to
shut off lake effect snow this morning ahead of a clipper system as
winds adjust to be out of the south. some combination of system and
lake enhanced snow is reinvigorated for the end of the taf period
starting later this afternoon at sbn.

underneath the surface inversion, low level moisture still keeps
mvfr cigs and the times of snow may provide times of lowered
visby.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 am est early this morning for
inz005-104-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter storm warning until 1 am est early this morning for
miz078-079-177-277.
marine...gale warning until 1 am est early this morning for lmz043-046.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...brown
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 300503
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1203 am est tue dec 30 2025

.key messages...

- scattered lake effect snow showers linger into tonight with only
minor additional accumulations of few tenths. snow and blowing snow
will reduce visibilities.

- additional light snow chances late tuesday and wednesday. most
areas likely see an inch or less with each system.

- seasonably cold conditions will prevail through the end of the week
with daytime wind chills in the teens falling to single digits,
near 0, each night.

&&

.aviation...

broken bands of lake effect snow showers decreased coverage and
intensity during the evening but remaining activity lingers nearby
to the west of the terminal corridor leading up to midnight. a stray
ifr snow shower is most likely from ptk southward through the late
night. the lake superior to lake michigan connection also remains
intact and could produce bands strong enough to survive the downhill
trip toward mbs. broken coverage of vfr stratocu occurs in between
for a wide range of aviation conditions that last through the
morning. wind gusts settle below 30 knots and direction backs
slightly more w-nw to keep clusters of stratocu streaming in from
lake michigan in the afternoon. accumulating ifr snow tied to the
next much weaker low pressure system arrives first at mbs toward
sunset and spreads south/east tuesday night.

for dtw... wind gusts settle below 30 knots while direction holds
from about 300 deg. this allows lingering lake effect snow showers to
graze the terminal area during the late night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling below 5000 feet late tonight. high tuesday
afternoon and night.

* moderate for crosswind threshold exceedence late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 321 pm est mon dec 29 2025

discussion...

main update this afternoon was the downgrade of the high wind
warning to a wind advisory given obs across southern lower
consistently holding sub 55mph. stronger gusts of 40-50mph remain
possible through the evening as the gradient/column winds slowly
weaken with the departing georgian bay low. breezier conditions
(gusts 20-30mph) still persist through tonight into tuesday however
as se mi resides on the interface of the eastern canadian low and
midwest high pressure.

trough axis has pushed east of the region earlier this afternoon
ushering wider spread snow showers/squalls likewise east of the
area. northwesterly flow in its wake lessens the magnitude lake
moisture is able to push this far inland favoring a decreasing trend
in snow shower coverage through the evening and early tonight. a
sizable chunk of the hi-res model suite are keying in an the
potential for a dominant superior-michigan-erie band to largely
maintain cohesion through the night supporting lingering snow
chances for portions of the saginaw valley-thumb before the band
weakens and drifts northeast over southern lake huron tuesday
morning. generally lighter additional accums (dusting to around a
few tenths of an inch) are possible this evening with remaining snow
showers, though if the aforementioned band does hold together,
impacted areas could see between 0.5-1" of additional snowfall.

remnant upper troughing over eastern canada maintains an active
pattern through the midweek period as a series of clippers dive out
northern canada into the great lakes. first of these arrive over the
western great lakes tuesday afternoon before sweeping through se mi
evening-early night. given its polar continental origin,
accompanying moisture isn`t particularly robust (specific humidities
sub 2 g/kg) limiting potential accumulations. most areas look likely
to see a few tenths to around a half inch with higher amounts up to
1-1.5" being more localized. second wave quickly follows on the heels
of the departing first, arriving over the central great lakes
wednesday afternoon-evening. similar to the first, lack of moisture
and fast moving nature of the shortwave keeps snowfall on the lighter
side with an inch or less favored.

reinforcing shot of arctic air is pulled south in the wake of the
system with 850mb temps falling to near -20c wednesday night-new
year`s morning. new year`s day highs will struggle to break into the
20s with wind chills holding single digits to around 0f. colder
pattern holds through the late week period as vertically-stacked low
pressure over quebec retrogrades back to the hudson bay maintaining
the upper trough over eastern north america.

marine...

a strong and still deepening low pressure system has pulled a
secondary cold front/surface trough through the region this
afternoon while tracking from southern ontario into western quebec.
this trough has flipped the winds around to the northwest and is the
leading edge of the colder arctic airmass that will reside over the
region the next few days. the arctic airmass and tight gradient
behind this exiting low will offer several more hours of the
strongest winds with this system which will be high end gales and
possibly storm force at times. storm warnings remain in effect for
all of lake huron while gale warnings are in effect for lake st.
clair and western lake erie. additionally, these strong winds today
have caused water levels to drop below low water datum at saginaw
bay and western lake erie where low water advisories are in effect.
saginaw bay levels have risen with the wind shift to the northwest
so that headline will be allowed to expire this afternoon. lake erie
levels will remain low into tonight so that headline will continue.
snow squalls will continue through the rest of the day, and heavy
freezing spray will impact lake huron as well. potential for storm
force gusts dwindles this evening with gales likely to continue
overnight into tuesday morning before tapering off so we may need to
adjust headlines later if observations support this forecast trend.
a northwest flow pattern persists through much of the week, offering
additional snow showers and occasional freezing spray. the next
clipper arrives late tuesday which brings an uptick in nw wind
wednesday but this looks to stay below gale force at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 11 am est tuesday for lhz361>363.

gale warning until 11 am est tuesday for lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning until 7 am est tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 7 am est tuesday for lez444.

low water advisory until 1 am est tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.