Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
696
fxus61 kcle 232325
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
625 pm est fri jan 23 2026

.what has changed...
based on latest qpf trends from the nbm and wpc, upgraded the
winter storm watch to a warning for ottawa, sandusky, and
hancock counties in nw oh. this warning is in effect from 7 pm
saturday to 7 am est this monday. based on the same qpf trends
and coordination with wfo`s northern indiana and detroit, the
winter storm watch remains in effect for lucas and wood counties for
7 pm saturday to 7 am this monday. this is where forecast confidence
in widespread warning-criteria, storm-total snowfall of at least 6
inches remains fairly low. here is the latest info on the other
weather alerts:

- cold weather advisory for wind chills as cold as -17f remains
in effect for all of our northern oh and nw pa counties until
7 am saturday.
- the winter storm warning for the remainder of our cwa (i.e.
from erie, huron, seneca, and wyandot counties, oh and points
east) takes effect at 7 pm saturday and is scheduled to end
from west to east between 10 am and 1 pm this monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of snow are expected through late next week. biggest
concern remains the upcoming winter storm tomorrow night through
monday morning.

2) below-normal temperatures persist today through friday,
january 30th. daily sub-zero wind chills are expected.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
aloft, a deep longwave trough associated with an unusually-cold
air mass persists over eastern canada and at least most of the
eastern united states, including the great lakes and oh valley,
through friday, january 30th. based on the latest mid-latitude
cyclone track, our region is expected to remain in the cold
sector and experience below-normal air temperatures through late
next week (see key message 2 for further details). primarily
fair weather is expected through early saturday evening as a
strong arctic surface high pressure ridge slides generally
e`ward across the great lakes and vicinity. behind a recent
arctic front passage, light lake-effect snow (les) showers and
self-destructive sunshine-related snow showers are expected to
stream generally se`ward across nw pa, ne oh, and vicinity
through this early evening. these snow showers should dissipate
around sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal
cooling and significant low-level dry air advection on the
synoptic scale. any additional snow accumulations are expected
to be less than one inch.

based on the projected evolution of the subtropical and polar
front jet streams and embedded jet streaks, and shortwave
troughs embedded in the above-mentioned longwave trough aloft, a
primary surface low should develop along the northwestern gulf
coast on saturday and then wobble ne`ward across the lower ms
valley to near the upper oh valley by sunset sunday evening.
simultaneously, this low should deepen, overall, amidst mslp
falls associated with focused divergence aloft/tropospheric
ascent in the left-front quadrant of a jet streak. as the low
pressure system`s warm conveyor belt, including eventual trowal,
undergoes isentropic ascent aloft while tapping into abundant
moisture over the gulf and southern gulf stream, widespread snow
will overspread our region generally from south to north and
reach the surface via the wet-bulb effect saturday evening
through about mid-morning on sunday. widespread snow will then
persist through sunset sunday evening. the snow is expected to
be moderate to heavy at times, with snowfall rates up to a half
inch to one inch per hour at times, since isentropic ascent and
ascent tied to frontogenetical convergence in the trowal,
respectively, are expected to be moderate to strong and
maximized in a cloudy dgz about 1 km deep at times.

as the left-front quadrant of the aforementioned mid/upper-level
jet streak translates farther ne`ward sunday night through monday,
a coastal surface low should form and deepen near long island
and nantucket as the previous surface low dissipates near the
upper oh valley. simultaneously, the coastal low will become
the dominant surface low and deepen further as it wobbles
ne`ward to atlantic waters south of nova scotia. accordingly,
the warm conveyor belt, including trowal, and associated moist
isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing for ascent will
weaken over our region while translating generally e`ward. thus,
lingering snow should weaken and exit generally e`ward overnight
sunday night through early monday afternoon. note: given the
extensive ice cover on lake erie, any lake-enhancement of snow
in the caa regime on the backside of the low pressure system
should be limited. as of 3 pm est friday, our latest storm-total
snowfall forecast calls for 5 to 12 inches of snow accumulation.
greatest amounts are expected toward the southeast in our cwa
based on the projected evolution of the weather pattern at the
surface and aloft, including surface low and trowal.

during the rest of monday through friday, periodic snow is
expected due, in part to moist isentropic ascent preceding
shortwave trough axes embedded in cyclonic and primarily w`erly
to n`erly flow aloft. limited les may occur downwind of mainly
ice-covered lake erie, amidst a primarily w`erly to nw`erly mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air. additional snow
accumulations should occur, but exact amounts are uncertain at
this juncture.

key message 2...
partially clear sky and weak surface winds accompanying the
aforementioned arctic ridge will promote efficient radiational
cooling late this afternoon through daybreak saturday, when
widespread lows of 0f to -10f are expected amidst net low-level
caa. wind chills as cold as -10f to nearly -20f are forecast
through daybreak. on saturday, the development of weak low-
level waa ahead of the above-mentioned low pressure system
should contribute to afternoon highs reaching the upper single
digits to nearly 15f. between sunrise saturday morning and
midnight saturday night, wind chills should fluctuate between
roughly -10f and 5f. continued below-normal air temperatures
and daily sub-zero minimum wind chills are expected saturday
night through friday.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
skies will continue to clear across the majority of the area
tonight, although some broken 3500-5000 ft agl clouds may hang
around at keri through the overnight hours. vfr is expected
areawide with a broken cirrus deck moving into the region mid to
late afternoon saturday. any snow is expected to remain to the
south of the local area through 00z sunday. winds will be out
of the northwest at around 5 to 10 knots this evening before
becoming light and variable overnight. east/northeast winds will
develop saturday afternoon with wind speeds likely reaching 5
to 10 knots across north-central and northwestern ohio by early
evening.

outlook...widespread snow spreads moves in from the south
saturday night, before tapering off monday morning. snow will be
moderate in intensity through the event but high snowfall
totals are expected. non-vfr with lake effect snow showers will
be possible in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania into
tuesday and again on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
westerly winds of 20-25 knots on the east end of lake erie will
decrease tonight as high pressure builds over the region. some
freezing spray is likely is ice free areas this evening but ice
continues to expand on lake erie. northeasterly winds of 10-20 knots
return on saturday night through sunday as a winter storm tracks
through the ohio valley. southwesterly winds ramp up to 30 knots on
tuesday, then veer to northwesterly tuesday night. a bitterly cold
airmass settles in behind this system for much of next week and lake
erie is expected to become mostly ice covered.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 7 am est saturday for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
morning for ohz003-006.
winter storm warning from 7 pm saturday to 7 am est monday for
ohz007-008-017.
winter storm warning from 7 pm saturday to 10 am est monday
for ohz009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...cold weather advisory until 7 am est saturday for paz001>003.
winter storm warning from 7 pm saturday to 1 pm est monday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...15
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
564
fxus63 kiwx 232348
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
648 pm est fri jan 23 2026

.key messages...
- lake effect snow showers will gradually taper late this
evening into the overnight hours.

- a cold weather advisory remains in effect through saturday
morning. although winds will diminish somewhat, sub zero
temperatures will still result wind chills of 15 to 20 below
zero.

- winter weather headlines continue from 7 pm sat through 7 pm
sun, with portions of the previous watch upgraded to a winter
storm warning where confidence is greatest for 6 inches or
more of snowfall.

- temperatures will remain well below freezing for at least the
next 7 days, with periods of sub zero wind chills along with
some lake effect snow showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 357 pm est fri jan 23 2026

bluf: as noted in the key messages, enough confidence exists in
a portion of the winter storm watch area to warrant upgrading
to a warning. all other cold weather and winter precip headlines
remain unchanged with this package. will break things down
below.

lake effect snow showers and dangerous cold (through saturday
morning)...

bands of lake effect snow showers have been rather persistent
working inland with some even reaching our office. we have not
received a lot of snow reports, but accumulations here have only
been a few tenths given very small flake size. rapid vsby changes,
sometimes as low as a quarter mile, have occurred which combined
with the breezy conditions is causing travel issues in some
locations. the snow showers will persist overnight, slowly
decreasing their inland extent. additional accumulations up to an
inch could occur, especially closer to lake michigan.

for the entire area, the bitter cold has settled in with
temperatures in the single digits above zero and wind chills well
below zero. winds will slowly diminish tonight, but the fresh snow,
areas of clearing and peak of the coldest air aloft will result in
widespread sub zero lows. wind chills of 15 to 20 below are still
expected into saturday morning before some improvement occurs.

winter storm to bring impacts to portions of the area (saturday
afternoon into early sunday evening)...

much of the previous thinking remains unchanged as a winter storm
will impact a large part of central and eastern us with continued
cold temperatures as well as all snow on the nw portions of the
system to ice and even thunderstorms further southeast. for our
area, models remain in the same overall camps as the overnight runs
as the main upper level trough of interest is still offshore and not
being sampled by the upper air network quite yet. the highest
confidence for warning level snowfall still appears to exist in far
southeast areas (roughly southeast of marion to ottawa) based on
ensembles and probabilistic data. northwest of this line, there is
too much variation in the potential accumulations with a likihood
for advisory level accumulations outside of the current watch. the
watch could be expanded nw, but at this stage confidence is less
than 50% on warning level accumulations. after much in house and
interoffice collaboration, it was decided to upgrade to a warning
for the aformentioned area and defer any other changes given the
large spread in potential accumulations northwest of this line.
light snow does arrive late saturday afternoon into sat evening, but
the most favorable period of accumulations looks to be from roughly
18z sun through 3z mon. while the valid time of the winter headlines
remained unchanged, it could be argued that some extension in the
end time later into sunday evening and maybe postponing the start
time. have deferred this to the next shift.

beyond sunday night, we remain in the very cold pattern with above
freezing temperatures not even in view through the valid period. weak
nw flow systems will bring small snow chances along with reinforcing
shots of cold air.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 646 pm est fri jan 23 2026

lake effect snow showers continue this evening with visibilities
frequently reduced to under 1 mile at ksbn. much of the lower
level thermal profiles in this setup are in the -20 to -30 deg c
range which is creating very small flake size which is ideal for
reducing visibilities despite the light snowfall rates. as we
head toward late evening/early overnight, the effects from an
expansive upstream low level anticyclone will come into play
with land breeze development that will take favored area for
additional snow showers closer to shoreline and displaced west
of ksbn. until that time, vsbys under 1 mile will be likely at
times through around 03z. overall quiet weather the remainder of
this forecast valid period as low clouds are replaced with mid
level clouds. conditions are expected to deteriorate beyond the
ending of this forecast valid period saturday night into
sunday. winds will be light southeast on sunday in response to
sfc high to the north, and developing inverted sfc trough to the
south.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ saturday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for inz018-022>025.
winter storm warning from 7 pm saturday to 7 pm est sunday for
inz026-027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory until 10 am est saturday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through sunday
evening for ohz002-004-005-015.
winter storm warning from 7 pm saturday to 7 pm est sunday for
ohz016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est saturday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est saturday for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning until 1 am est saturday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
883
fxus63 kdtx 232336
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
636 pm est fri jan 23 2026

.key messages...

- a cold weather advisory remains in effect through saturday morning
with wind chill values between -15f and -25f. actual low
temperatures tonight expected to reach -10f to -15f for most areas.

- long duration snow on sunday into sunday night expected to produce
snowfall in the 3-7 inch range for the detroit metro area and
locations toward the southern michigan border, where the highest
amounts are most likely. lower snowfall amounts north of m-59.

- cold/below normal temperatures continue next week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions prevail under mostly clear skies to start the taf
period as dry air dominates the local environment this evening into
tonight. winds out of the northwest at 5-10 knots will carry through
tonight. main item for tomorrow will be the increasing coverage of
mid-high clouds expanding northward associated with the next winter
system set to impact southeast michigan late saturday night into
sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 258 pm est fri jan 23 2026

discussion...

temperatures in the low single numbers this afternoon, though brisk
westerly winds still are maintaining wind chills in the 15 to -25 f
range across many spots. a cold weather advisory remains in effect
through 10 am saturday.

afternoon surface dew pts in the negative teens to -20 f reveal the
potential for very low temperatures tonight. skies are expected to
remain clear or mostly clear as winds attempt to decouple by
sunrise. this occurs as a "bubble high" (eastward extension of the
arctic high over the upper mississippi river valley) develops over
south lower michigan. flint remains the best candidate to break its
daily record low saturday morning (see climate section).

large upper level low off the baja california coast will be kicked
eastward, tracking through mexico tomorrow. southwest flow ahead of
a highly positive-tilted northern stream trough tracking through the
northern plains will capture and merge with this southern wave. the
6hr 500 mb height fall center (~ -90 dam) progged to track through
central ohio sunday evening. double-barrel lows, with the mid
atlantic coast low deepening rapidly, will take over by sunday
night. however, the 12z canadian/nam both still indicating a
substantial/closed low pressure center tracking northeast into the
western pa/pittsburgh area. this is typically a favorable track for
detroit metro area to see deformation snow. specific humidity in the
850-700 mb layer is expected to peak at 2 g/kg, reaching monroe
county sunday afternoon, before tapering off to around 1.25 g/kg
over tri-cities/northern thumb region. normally, with decent
forcing, this would translate to 12-hour amounts of 1-4 inches.
however, forecast soundings are indicating favorable lift and
saturation in the dgz (dendritic growth zone) across a very deep
layer (> 10kft), supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios in excess of
20:1.

as low-level winds turn northerly sunday evening/night, some
additional lake-effect contribution from lake huron is expected
(although recent ice buildup over southern lake huron leads to some
uncertainty), as 850 bm temps reside in the negative mid to upper
teens. based on this current set up, anticipating total snowfall
amounts of 3-7 inches across the detroit metro area and points
south. the highest amounts are likely over monroe county as 12z euro
shows 0.4 inches of qpf right at the southern michigan border.
amounts will quickly taper off northwest of m-59, where initial dry
air and weaker moisture advection/forcing results in little
accumulation across midland/bay counties.

the northern stream trough axis swings through the central great
lakes on monday, with the next clipper system/re-enforcing shot of
cold air (850 mb temps in the negative lower 20s) arrives on
tuesday. outgoing nbm pops for snow showers seems too low, and could
see the arctic front producing a dusting to 2 inch type flurry snow
scenario.

marine...

the great lakes will remain entrenched under an arctic airmass which
will sustain strong overlake instability and thus steep mixing
depths, allowing breezy conditions to continue through the day. wind
gusts around 25 knots are expected with decreasing trends into
tomorrow morning as a strong high pressure system builds in. a heavy
freezing spray warning remains in effect until early tomorrow
morning. a strong lake effect snow band/snow squall has set up
across northern to north central lake huron aligned where low-level
convergence is maximized. this snow band will sustain through
tomorrow and will result in rapid reductions in visibility under the
band. widespread light snow to fill in over the southern great lakes
on sunday as an expansive low pressure system progresses across the
southern us.

climate...

the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est saturday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 5 am est saturday for lhz361>363-
462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......am
climate......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.