Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
651 am est sat jan 24 2026

.what has changed...
lucas and wood counties have been upgraded to a winter storm
warning since confidence has sufficiently increased for greater
than 6 inches of snow in far nw ohio. the onset of the snow has
trended a few hours slower tonight, especially in ne ohio and nw
pa where snow will not begin until after 1 am sunday.
temperatures next week are trending colder, with below zero air
temperatures monday night and thursday night and daily highs
struggling to rise past the low to mid teens.

&&

.key messages...
1) the major winter storm remains on track to impact all of
northern ohio and nw pa tonight into monday bringing widespread
snow, sub-zero wind chills, and treacherous travel.

2) temperatures will fall below zero again in the wake of the
storm monday night into tuesday morning, with dangerous wind
chills of -15 to -20 creating significant cold exposure risks.

3) very cold conditions will continue all of next week with
bouts of at least light snow. the prolonged cold will elevate
risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
other than the bitter cold arctic air, conditions are quiet
across the region this morning ahead of the major winter storm
set to impact the region. temperatures range from about 0 to
12 below zero, with the coldest readings in far eastern ohio
and interior nw pa. winds will continue to diminish through
sunrise as the arctic high builds overhead, so the cold weather
advisory should be able to expire at 12z.

now for the winter storm, infrared satellite and water vapor
loops early this morning show an active southern stream
subtropical jet extending from mexico through the southern
plains and mid mississippi valley ahead of a closed mid/upper
low drifting onshore of baja california. this is the beginning
stages of the storm, with this subtropical jet pumping mid-level
moisture into the southern plains and mid mississippi valley. as
the closed low progresses across mexico and into texas today
through tonight, it will phase with a strong northern stream
mid/upper shortwave dropping through the rockies and northern
plains. in response to this phasing, surface cyclogenesis will
take place along the texas and louisiana gulf coasts this
evening, with a coupled mid/upper jet structure aiding in a
deepening surface low lifting into the eastern tennessee valley
by sunday morning and across the lower ohio valley and central
appalachians sunday evening. a sharp and rapidly deepening
mid/upper longwave trough axis swinging through much of the
eastern conus behind the storm monday will allow the inland low
to transfer to a strengthening coastal low near the jersey shore
as the system bombs out off the new england coast by monday
night.

precipitation will rapidly expand across the southern plains and
mid mississippi valley today as the phasing mid/upper jet
dynamics lead to a strengthening low-level jet and resultant
moisture advection and isentropic ascent from an open gulf.
with such a strong 1040-1050 mb arctic high anchored across the
great lakes ahead of this system, this will set up a classic
overrunning situation. the broadening area of warm/moist
advection and isentropic ascent overtop of the low-level arctic
air supports a massive shield of wintry precip that will
approach our region from the southwest. timing has slowed in all
guidance regarding the onset of snow tonight across northern
ohio and nw pa. this is both due to model guidance obtaining a
better handle on the aforementioned phasing, which typically
slows down systems, as well as abundant amounts of low-level dry
air from the arctic high making initial precip fall as virga.
snow will probably not begin in nw ohio until after 03z, but the
delay will be more noticeable in ne ohio and nw pa where the
onset of snow will probably be more like 06 to 07z.
nevertheless, kept all headlines starting at 00z since the
overall message remains the same that snow will develop tonight
with deteriorating visibility and road conditions. once the snow
begins, it will continue steadily through sunday night before
tapering off from west to east monday morning into the
afternoon. lake enhancement and upslope flow in ne ohio and nw
pa will linger the snow the longest into monday afternoon.

in terms of snow amounts, the heaviest snow is still expected
to fall sunday and sunday night as the low tracks across the
lower ohio valley and central appalachians, with the greatest
synoptic support and moisture advection in a broad deformation
zone on the nw flank of the low across our region during that
time. the aforementioned coupled jet structure will set up
strong mid-level frontogenetic forcing, and it is within that
band that the heaviest snowfall rates are expected. the entire
swath of snow across the region will easily put down 4 to 8
inches of snow areawide given the cold temps and dry snow
(greater than 20:1 ratios), but locations beneath the best
frontogenesis band will see the highest amounts of 10-12 inches
(locally higher possible). weak mid-level instability within
that band could also result in convective snow bursts with rates
over 1 inch per hour. new guidance overnight has not changed
much in terms of thinking, with the greatest probabilities for
the heaviest snow still expected along a mt. vernon to
youngstown and meadville line. this is reflected in
probabilistic data for snowfall amounts of greater than 8 inches
in 24 hours. those probabilities are around 25% in far nw ohio
near toledo to 85 to 90% along the mt. vernon to youngstown
line. despite much lower probabilities for far nw ohio, upgraded
that area to a warning since the dry snow ratios will probably
allow amounts to overachieve a bit, with at least 6 to 7 inches
expected. overall, the entire area should see at least 4-8
inches between late saturday night and monday afternoon, with
6-10 inches most likely along and east of i-71. areas with the
greatest risk of seeing over 12 inches will be that mt. vernon
to youngstown and meadville line. the one caveat is lake
enhancement monday morning into the afternoon as the system
pulls away. lake erie is mostly ice covered, but there will be a
window of nw flow monday morning and early afternoon beneath a
trowal. this deep wraparound moisture in the trowal and strong
cold air advection across the lake combined with upslope flow
could still result in a few extra inches in interior ne ohio and
nw pa in the snowbelts; it just probably will not last long
given the ice cover and moisture stripping away quickly as the
coastal low takes over.

impacts with this system will be high areawide. winds will not
be very strong with it, but ne winds do increase to 15-25 knots
sunday followed by nw winds of 15-25 knots late sunday night and
monday. this is enough given the dry snow to easily make it blow
around, reducing visibility below a quarter mile at times and
adding to the already snow covered roads. wind chill values will
also be a few degrees below zero tonight/sunday morning and
again sunday night/monday morning, and wind chills will only be
in the single digits during the day sunday. this will elevate
cold exposure risks for motorists who become stranded in the
snow. travel is discouraged, but if you must travel, pack a
winter weather kit containing a warm blanket, water, food, and
portable chargers.


key message 2...
the deepening mid/upper longwave trough over the eastern conus
in the wake of the storm will reinforce the pool of bitter cold
arctic air. this combined with deep, fresh snow cover will allow
air temperatures to fall well below zero monday night into
tuesday morning, and increasing sw winds of 15-25 knots ahead of
a clipper system for tuesday will lead to dangerous wind chills.
guidance has trended colder monday night into tuesday, and many
areas will likely see air temperatures between -5 and -10 and
wind chills of -15 to -20 late monday night and tuesday morning.
cold weather headlines will be needed again as these
temperatures and wind chills will create significant exposure
risk. the coldest temperatures that we see in our region tend to
occur when the wind is out of the sw like this because it
prevents "warmer" lake erie air from coming onshore, so this
will be monitored.

key message 3...
the arctic air will continue to hold across the region through
at least the end of next week. the last time that our region
experienced a stretch of this many consecutive days with
temperatures averaging this cold (averaging 16 degrees or
colder) was in early january 2018. daily highs will struggle to
climb out of the low to mid teens, and lows will fall to sub-zero
each night. lows thursday night could be well below zero again.
the consecutive days with these temperatures will elevate the
risk of cold exposure and damage to infrastructure. in terms of
snow, weak clipper systems will bring bouts of light snow to
most of the region, with localized lake-effect snow continuing
at times across ne ohio and nw pa, although this will be limited
by ice cover. these systems could amount to some 1 to 3 inch
snowfalls, but confidence is low at this time. the most
organized clippers look to be tuesday night and again wednesday
night into thursday. timing and details will change as we get
closer.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr will continue today as upper- and mid-level clouds increase
and thicken through the day. light and variable winds become
east-northeast around 6-9 knots by this evening. snow spreads
in from southwest to northeast late tonight, with snow onset
between 05-11z. visibilities should quickly drop to between 3/4
sm and 2 sm, with periods of 1/2sm building in after 12z sunday.
visibilities could initially bounce around for a couple hours
as it battles with initial dry air before sustaining 1 sm with
continuous snow.

outlook...widespread snow will continue through sunday evening
before tapering off west to east late sunday night through
monday. snow will be moderate in intensity through the event
but high snowfall totals are expected. non-vfr with lake effect
snow showers are possible in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania into tuesday and again on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure builds
overhead. east-northeast flow develops tonight, becoming 15-20 knots
on sunday. winds become northwest on monday and then southwest on
tuesday. southwest winds should generally be around 20-30 knots,
though there is a very low chance for gales (5-10%), especially
in the far eastern basin. there is also a low chance for low
water in the western basin as well.

lake erie is mostly ice-covered at this point and the ice will
continue to expand and thicken through next week as several bouts of
cold air impact the region. stronger southwest winds on tuesday may
break up and shift the ice northeastward away from the southwestern
shoreline of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est monday
for ohz003-006>008-017.
winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
monday for ohz009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...cold weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est monday
for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am est sat jan 24 2026

.key messages...

- a cold weather advisory remains in effect through this
morning. wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero are expected.

- a low pressure system will bring heavy snow to the area
tonight into sunday night, followed by lake effect snow into
monday afternoon. winter storm warnings and advisories are in
effect, with greater than 6 inches of snow accumulation
expected in the warning areas. travel impacts are expected
through monday morning, with the worst conditions sunday into
early sunday evening. see the latest winter weather statement
for details.

- temperatures will remain well below freezing for at least the
next 7 days, with periods of sub zero wind chills along with
some lake effect snow showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 635 am est sat jan 24 2026

the main changes made to the forecast overnight were:

1. expanded the winter storm warning further northwest and added the
remainder of the cwa into a winter weather advisory. confidence is
high in us seeing 6 inches of snow or more for the warning areas,
and 3 inches or more for the advisory areas. i have greater
confidence in totals of 4 to 6 inches in the advisory areas that
border the warning, with lesser confidence further northwest and
inland from lake mi. see below for details.

2. extended the winter storm warnings/advisories through late sunday
night (1 am et) as the timing of the system is slightly slower than
planned. left the start time as 7 pm et as it will likely start
snowing shortly after that-but amounts will be on the lighter side
until after 1 am et. the greatest impacts/accumulations will occur
sunday into sunday evening. lake effect snow moves in behind the
system, which will add additional accumulations to areas favored by
w-nw winds through monday. it`s possible we may need to extend the
advisories through monday in laporte/western st. joseph counties in
in and berrien/cass counties in mi.

greater details...

cold weather advisory today and outlook

left the cold weather advisory in place with no change-as wind
chills of 10 to 20 below are expected through roughly 10 am et. high
temperatures will range from the single digits into the teens and
low 20s through the week, with lows in the single digits above/below
zero. overnight/early morning wind chills appear to remain in check
through much of the week, generally ranging from single digits and
low teens above/below zero. monday night into tuesday morning could
warrant another cold weather advisory, with values of 10 to 20 below
possible. there will be several chances for system/lake effect snow
through the week as an upper level trough moves through mid week,
followed by a closed low over the great lakes thursday into friday.

winter storm tonight into sunday night

as mentioned above, expanded the winter storm warning northwestward
and added the remainder of the cwa to a winter weather advisory. i
also extended the time until 1 am et sun night. thanks to the
overall synoptic pattern/phasing systems (higher bust
potential)...there is still a bit more waffling than i`d like
amongst the models with regards to the qpf and subsequent snow
accumulations, which gives me some uncertainty in terms of
primarily the advisory area- particularly for areas further
north and west. i split the advisory into segments with slightly
different wording to communicate this uncertainty-with lesser
amounts of 2 to 5 inches in the far nw and closer to 3 to 6
inches along the warning borders. if some of the more northward
shifted and slower moving models are correct-we`d need to
upgrade the advisories along the warning edge and more of the
warning area would likely see totals closer to 9-11 inches. if
the more southward shifted/faster moving models are correct-we
could end up seeing only the low-end of advisory totals further
northwest (2 inches in southwest lower mi/far nw in) and the low
end of warning criteria (around 6 inches in the southernmost
extent of the warning).

that being said, i used what was available from the high res models
to try to narrow down where the advisory/warning lines would be in
terms of snow totals-and provide greater detail on the event
timing/evolution. assuming middle of the road solutions, i have 2 to
5 inches from st. joseph county westward for the michigan counties
and northern la porte/st. joseph counties in in. i almost left the
farther southwest michigan counties out of the advisory all together
given the current forecast totals through the advisory time of 1 am
et are only about 2-3" --however right behind the system a n-s
oriented lake effect band develops down the long axis of lake mi (by
00-3z sun evening) and travels eastward into at least la
porte/berrien counties by the 3-6z timeframe. as winds shift more
northwest towards monday morning (and west mon afternoon)-we see the
band drift eastward into far northern in and cass/st. joseph
counties mi before dissipating. some of the models have another
tenth of qpf with this band-and though it`s transient we could see a
period of heavy snow that persists beyond the current advisory time
into monday. this was what pushed me over the edge in terms of
advisory/no advisory for these areas. right now we only have the
advisory until 1 am et sunday night (greatest confidence). later
shifts will likely need to extend this segment depending on how the
lake effect situation evolves. even with lesser qpf there could be a
decent period with moderate/heavy snow that causes impacts to travel
(especially if the system snow has already left around 3 inches of
accumulation). inversion heights linger around 5-7kft with an
initially long fetch down lake mi for moisture/instability through
mon am, then shorter fetch and gradually crashing inversion heights
through mon pm (especially for la porte county by then).

lastly, the timing of the heaviest snow has shifted more into
sunday-early sunday evening. for simplicity-and in
collaboration with neighboring wfo`s-i left the start time the
same as the earlier headlines as we`ll likely have at least
some light/moderate snow tonight. however, the end time was
extended to 1 am est sun night (vs. 7 pm est).

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 635 am est sat jan 24 2026

today will feature vfr conditions, increasing mid level clouds and
developing easterly winds (5-10 mph) in advance of a storm system on
target to bring increasing chances for light snow later this evening
into sunday morning. there is lot of low level dry air to overcome
which could delay the start time of light snow and associated ifr-
mvfr conditions tonight (low confidence).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ this morning
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
winter weather advisory from 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening
to 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday for inz005>008-012>015-
020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 am est monday
for inz009-017-018-022>027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 am est monday
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
miz078>081-177-277.
winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 am est
monday for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
634 am est sat jan 24 2026

.key messages...

- a cold weather advisory remains in effect until 10 am this morning
for wind chill values between -15f and -25f.

- dry conditions today give way to accumulating snowfall late
tonight and into sunday.

- highly variable snowfall totals expected by sunday night with 5-6
inches possible for monroe and wayne counties, 2-4 inches for the
rest of metro detroit, and less than an inch north of m-46.

- very cold conditions continue next week with addition cold
weather advisories possible.

&&

.aviation...

ridge of surface high pressure is centered over lower michigan this
morning. calm to slightly westerly winds in place will eventually
emerge out of the east today. the increasingly easterly trajectory
is expected to keep any lake michigan stratocumulus west of the taf
sites today. high cloud with some transparency this morning will
give way to increasing top down saturation and mid cloud by this
evening. the next winter storm will lift northward towards the
detroit taf sites tonight. low confidence and high uncertainty
exists on when snowflakes will begin reaching the ground at dtw.
have pushed back the tempo group until 09-12z with any ifr
conditions holding off until after 12z sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5,000 feet early sunday morning.

* high in precipitation type of snow.

* low in in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2sm in falling
snow before 12z sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 430 am est sat jan 24 2026

discussion...

very cold start today across southeast michigan, and for much of
conus, as clear overnight skies lie atop a bona fide arctic airmass.
this has led to initial readings well below 0f, but since gradient
winds are weak (predominantly aob 5 knots) the difference between
air temperatures and wind chill values has mostly been minimal. the
cold weather advisory should be allowed to expire by 10 am as wind
chills increase above -15f for the rest of the day. gradual thermal
moderation is already underway within the column, marked by 850 mb
temperatures warming from -27c (per 24.00z kdtx raob), to the minus
teens (celsius) by this afternoon. this translates to a marginally
warmer day, with daytime highs in the upper single digits, in spite
of increasing cloud cover. mesoscale 1043 mb surface ridge dislodges
from southwest lower michigan later today and migrates eastward,
eventually flipping light winds easterly by this evening.

continuing to monitor the next opportunity for accumulating snowfall
late tonight into sunday as highly amplified northern and southern
stream troughing phase over the southern plains, before the
composite wave ejects into the northeast by monday. local isentropic
surfaces steepen and moisten with time as the thetae ridge lifts out
of the ohio valley and into the lower peninsula tonight. light snow
begins to spread north of the michigan/ohio border sometime between
03z and 06z sunday, well downstream of the actual wave features. the
more substantial cva should still be west of the mississippi by 12z
sunday. given the lack of more meaningful dynamics, initial
overnight accumulations (south of i-94) should hold below an inch.
the moderate to briefly heavy snowfall rates are not expected until
sunday afternoon, after the lead vortmax clips the southeast edge of
the cwa.

as expected with a narrowing time horizon, consensus model data has
sharpened wrt the qpf gradient. latest deterministic, ensemble, and
ml guidance show agreement in the expected range of qpf. areas south
of i-94 will likely get between 0.20 and 0.40 inches of liquid
equivalent, while the sharp gradient with northwest extent keeps
total qpf to around a few hundredths across the tri-cities.
regarding snow-related headlines, opted to hold off on an advisory
(or watch/warning for monroe or wayne counties) tonight to allow an
additional cycle of model data. at the very least, an advisory will
likely be needed for most counties across the southern half of the
forecast area where forecast soundings maintain deep saturation
through the dgz. the main limiting factor will be the lack of
stronger ascent which keeps average totals in the 2-4 inch range,
but decreases sharply north of i-69. the exceptions will be over
monroe and wayne counties where vertical velocities could produce
rates on the order of a half inch per hour. this leads to non-zero
potential in approaching warning criteria, but the latest slr trends
closer to 15-1 and few 7+ inch solutions preclude a watch. some
uncertainty exists with how long snowfall continues sunday night,
and the extent to which post-event lake effect impinges on the
forecast area. another quarter to half inch is possible late sunday
into monday.

daily lake effect snowfall chances in-play for much of next week as
colder than normal conditions persist. several reinforcing shots of
arctic air and supporting disturbances aloft offer additional
opportunities for wind chills dropping below -15f, therefore future
cold weather advisories may be warranted. daytime highs are capped
in the teens during the next 7 days.

marine...

the maintenance of a heavy lake effect snow band will persist across
north to north central lake huron through the afternoon as low-level
convergence persists within a corridor of unstable conditions. a
strong high pressure system to then settle in across the great lakes
though the day. this will bring a period of lighter winds through
the weekend.

across the southern great lakes, light snow will begin to expand
across the region through sunday as an expansive low pressure system
arrives across the appalachia region. the departure of this low
pressure system into the western atlantic will reinforce arctic air
across the great lakes, which will increase wind speeds through the
early and midweek period.

climate...

the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......am
climate......tf/kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.