Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
710
fxus61 kcle 061814
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
214 pm edt wed may 6 2026

.what has changed...
confidence has decreased in regards to the potential for frost
tonight across the area, resulting in no need for headlines at this
time.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler temperatures expected thursday before returning to near
normal by the end of the week. chilly nights may result in patchy
frost development.

2) widespread showers return for the end of the week into the
weekend before another below average temperature airmass returns
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cooler airmass associated with below average temperatures has
pushed into the area and is expected to persist through thursday
night. this high pressure system will be characterized by 850mb
temperatures falling to 0 to -2c, although it is uncertain how much
of this will translate to the surface. overnight lows tonight and on
thursday night should remain in the upper 30s to low 40s with the
warmest temperatures expected nearest the lakeshore. there is a bit
of uncertainty however is the progression and timing of clouds
overnight. in areas that see a period of clearing, enhanced
radiational cooling has the potential to lower these temperatures a
bit more, possibly resulting in patchy frost developing. the best
chance of frost remains west of i-71 and across nwpa both tonight
and thursday night, but will have to continue to monitor conditions
for the need of a headline. for the time being, a suggested
proactive action is to cover or bring indoors vulnerable vegetation
that has begun to bloom this spring.

key message 2...
as high pressure drifts east thursday night, a mid-level shortwave
trough will push east, providing some weak support for scattered
light showers to develop. the bulk of precipitation associated with
this end of week low pressure should occur on friday and friday
night. initially, shower development along a weak warm front will
push north across the area friday, followed by more widespread
precipitation friday night into early saturday. given the overall
timing of the frontal passages, chances of thunder remain minimal
and qpf totals should remain generally below 0.5" keeping any
flooding concerns at bay. this cold front boundary should stall just
east of the area, acting as a path for the next low pressure system
moving northeast late saturday.

this late saturday into monday system is expected to be a bit more
robust as an upper level trough dig south across the great lakes
region, providing good synoptic support for the surface low. in
addition, ample moisture advection coupled with a llj and support
from a strong jet aloft should result in widespread showers pushing
west to east on sunday into early monday. cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder on sunday as timing looks to be more convectively
favorable, but overall severe potential remains low at this point.

behind this sunday/monday system, temperatures look to return to
below average with highs once again in the 50s to low 60s through
tuesday and overnight lows dropping into the low 40s.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
the main message for aviation weather will be vfr conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours. vfr ceilings are expected to
continue through tomorrow with ceilings mainly above 5000 feet.
west-northwest winds will average 5-11 knots this afternoon,
backing to more westerly tonight into thursday 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected friday through sunday.

&&

.marine...
overall mainly quiet weather conditions are expected on lake
erie through this weekend. high pressure is building over the
lake today and tonight. northwest to west-northwest winds of 5
to 15 knots is expecting this afternoon and tonight. winds will
become more westerly 5 to 15 knots on thursday. west to
southwest winds 10 to 15 knots is expected thursday night into
friday. southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will continue on
saturday. by sunday, a cold front will slide across the lake and
winds will turn northerly 10 to 15 knots. no marine headlines
are expected through this weekend at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
686
fxus63 kiwx 061643
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1243 pm edt wed may 6 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably cool temperatures will be accompanied by frost
tonight.

- a short period of rain is ahead friday and friday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 317 am edt wed may 6 2026

anomalously chilly air will prevail over the region through
friday as an upper low lingers over hudson bay. this low brought
showers and chilly air to the region yesterday behind a cold
front. the cold air will bring the likelihood of frost formation
tonight especially north of highway 30 as temperatures drop
into the 30s. highs both today and thursday will only be in the
50s. pondered headlines for this upcoming night with surrounding
offices - the consensus was to defer any headlines to the
dayshift. the possibility, extent and amount of cloud formation
tonight under the high-based subsidence inversion will make low
temperature forecasts challenging.

a milder and more unsettled pattern is farther ahead into early
next week as the upper level trof over the great lakes region
shifts east and as the upstream flow becomes more zonal. ample
upper level disturbances will travel east in the upper flow and
bring chances for showers. at this time, severe weather chances
appear low.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1243 pm edt wed may 6 2026

vfr conditions to dominate through the period with winds
generally on the lighter side until thursday when a disturbance
approaches and allows for some increase. models indicate an area
of rain with this feature, but trends suggest it remains sw of
both locations (including any possible flight impacts).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
189
fxus63 kdtx 061751
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
151 pm edt wed may 6 2026

.key messages...

- cool today and thursday with daytime highs in the 50s and
overnight lows in the 30s; some morning frost is possible on
thursday.

- mainly dry today and thursday, but isolated late afternoon and/or
evening showers are possible.

- temperatures recover over the weekend with additional rain
chances; potential exists for thunderstorms sunday.

&&

.aviation...

moisture fluxing off of the adjacent great lakes combined with cool
midlevel temperatures have resulted in vfr stratus over all of
southeast michigan this afternoon. very dry air in the midlevels
with loss of daytime heating should result in a scattering of the
stratus this evening, however, there is some potential that patches
of clouds could persist. forecast soundings are surprisingly moist at
approximately 6.0 kft agl and there is no significant lowering of
any subsidence overnight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 am edt wed may 6 2026

discussion...

the final round of light showers is finally winding down along the
michigan/ohio border as persistent 800-750 mb system-relative ascent
and axis of thetae advection drift eastward and exit. several
continental wave mergers are underway early this morning, but the
most significant is occurring with the northern and southern stream
longwave troughs over the mississippi valley. as the day progresses,
the resultant unified jet axis will extend an impressive distance,
some 3,000 miles between the baja peninsula and labrador sea.
southeast michigan will be situated adjacent to the western edge of
the jet streak, and between associated lobes of vorticity. governing
barotropic low slowly retrogrades over hudson bay today which helps
direct colder air aloft into the great lakes region. benign
conditions are favored with this configuration at least through the
midday hours. a packet of mid-level height falls along a shortwave
trough positioned within the mean flow is directed into lower
michigan. no meaningful precipitation response is expected with this
feature as a more zonal orientation to tropospheric flow ushers in
drier canadian air throughout the day. diurnal mixed-layer will be
fairly developed, extending to the 7-9 kft agl layer, but capping
above ensures nil instability. at most, could see some virga in some
vertically mature cumuliform clouds. nocturnal cloud fraction aloft
will dictate frost potential late tonight into thursday morning.

anticyclonically curved surface pressure gradient extends into
southern lower on thursday while the next embedded shortwave trough
takes aim at the tri-state area. non-zero chance for some pop-up
diurnal showers as a ribbon of 850-700 mb moisture spills into the
lower peninsula during the afternoon heating cycle. both coarse and
high resolution 06.00z solutions include isolated to scattered
showers/qpf. thursday is also shaping up to be the coolest day of
the week marked by 850 mb temperatures of -3c to -6c. highs should
struggle to break out of the mid 50s. late-day gustiness arises as
lower column flow increases amidst favorable mixing profiles, but
nocturnal cooling should outpace advective cooling after low veers
northwesterly, ending 20-25 knot gusts by late evening.

the unified jet axis orients equatorially through the tennessee
valley on friday, modified by the next shortwave digging into the
mid-mississippi valley. weak surface reflection is noted in nwp with
precipitation shield clipping the southern forecast area friday, and
into the overnight hours. thermal moderation with upward trend in
pwats aligns with nbm guidance of chance pops at this juncture.
warmer saturday with southwest flow ahead of a late weekend cold
front. a period of showers and thunderstorms is probable in relation
to the frontal passage.

marine...

winds are expected to stay on the light side (under 20 knots) for
the rest of the work week as a weak pressure gradient lingers. this
is despite a cooler airmass in place, with sub zero 850 mb temps.

a pattern of weak clipper systems brings periodic chances for
showers which will continue into the weekend as milder air and
higher moisture levels arrive. as it stands now, this leads to
saturday night being the primary window for showers and isolated
thunderstorms as a cold front slowly moves through the region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt thursday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068-069-075-082.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.