Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
921
fxus61 kcle 100616
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
216 am edt mon aug 10 2026

.what has changed...
a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the western half
of the forecast area through midnight tonight. primary hazard
will be damaging wind gusts, a tornado or two, and heavy
rainfall.

timing of thunderstorms into northwest ohio this evening has
trended faster and the slight risk for severe thunderstorms
(level 2 of 5) has been expanded east to around vermilion.
raised low temperatures slightly the next couple nights given
the warm and humid airmass. lowered pops on tuesday morning and
portions of the area tuesday afternoon given uncertainty in
timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. qpf has also
trended down across northeast portions of the forecast area
through wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
in northwest ohio this evening and tonight. damaging wind gusts
of 50-60 mph are the primary hazard.

2) additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through wednesday
will lead to the potential for localized flooding and scattered
severe thunderstorms.

3) muggy conditions will make temperatures feel uncomfortable at
times through wednesday with cooler and drier air returning to end
the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
7:50 pm update...
an mcs is ongoing and moving roughly east-southeast across
northern indiana into northwest ohio this evening. the mcs has
maintained strength as moving east with spc issuing a severe
thunderstorm watch for the western half of the forecast area
through midnight tonight. primary hazard will be damaging wind
gusts and a tornado or two. can`t rule out instances of heavy
rainfall with isolated flash flooding, particularly in urban and
well-saturated areas.

previous discussion...
weak low pressure is located over nw illinois with a warm front
extending east across northern indiana into western ohio. the
warm front is identified primarily by a swath of dewpoints in
the lower 70s that is advecting northward today. an mcs is
ongoing across lake michigan this afternoon and a severe
thunderstorm watch extends as far east as williams county ohio
through 7 pm. the northern portion of the mcs is expected to
outpace the reservoir of unstable air and the associated
moisture advection. the southern portion of the mcs is more
likely to maintain strength into indiana but unclear at this
time the extent it can hold together into nw ohio. the
instability gradient is expected to lift north along the i-75
corridor and possibly to the central highlands but only make
slow progress to the northeast across lake erie tonight. cams
have struggled with the handling of this mcs but best timing
estimates are for a few thunderstorms to continue east along the
advancing warm front into the i-75 corridor and possibly
towards mansfield between 8-11 pm. a general weakening trend is
likely as we get past sunset and uncertainty remains regarding
the coverage of severe wind gusts into this evening. in general
the timing of thunderstorms has trended faster into nw ohio.

later tonight we expect to see a low level jet develop from chicago
into lower michigan. this feature combined with the next round of
shortwave energy moving through the quasi northwest flow aloft are
likely to result in a rejuvenation of thunderstorms upstream across
sw lower michigan. showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected
to spread east across lake erie after midnight tonight while perhaps
more robust convection still favors a southeast trajectory towards
central ohio. models over the last couple days have been
highlighting a swath of heavier rain setting up just southwest of
our forecast areas in indiana/west central ohio prior to 12z.

key message 2...
the local area remains on the downstream side of an
upper level ridge over the rocky mountains and plains states through
mid-week. this places the local area in a favorable region for
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front
stalls in the vicinity and multiple shortwaves move through the
flow aloft. timing of additional showers and thunderstorms is
challenging beyond tonight and will be impacted by storm
evolution, outflow boundaries, and placement of the stalled
front. we do expect a break during the late morning/early
afternoon on monday. moderate instability is expected to
develop through the afternoon, especially across southern
portions of the forecast area, with scattered thunderstorms
possible during the late afternoon. a more organized severe
weather threat could materialize during the evening ahead of a
more substantial shortwave trough sliding through the central
great lakes. good veering of the flow with height is expected
along with around 40 knots of shear. almost all of the forecast
area is in a slight risk(level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
on monday.

depending on storm evolution, a trailing rain threat could linger
into monday night, particularly closer to central ohio. with the
potential for a stronger round of storms on monday evening/night,
did lower pops to chance for most of the daytime on tuesday.
the airmass remains very moist with pw values rebounding to near
2 inches but confidence in placement of storms is low by this
time. the more active storm track could be just south of the
area on tuesday but will need to be monitored. coverage is
likely to increase again tuesday night. then one more
opportunity for thunderstorms is in the forecast on wednesday
afternoon ahead of the eventual cold front. storm total rainfall
amounts through wednesday are over 2 inches across southwest
portions of the forecast area but could see localized totals of
3 or more inches over several days. will need to monitor the
potential for flooding as the week progresses and areas become
saturated.

key message 3...
this active stretch of weather will be characterized by warm
and muggy conditions. dewpoints return to the 70s on monday and
heat index values will be near 90 degrees across portions of
northwest and north central ohio. elevated humidity levels will
continue (at least in ohio) through wednesday. temperatures
will settle back into the 70s to end the week and bring some
relief from the higher humidity.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
the first of many complexes of showers and thunderstorms that
will impact the area in the coming days is now east of the area,
so expect mainly dry and vfr conditions at all terminals through
10z this morning other than a few lingering spotty showers. the
next complex currently organizing over lake michigan should
maintain strength and track across the region later this
morning. timing is a rough estimate and could end up being an
hour faster if a cold pool develops and accelerates the system,
but estimate it to reach ktol and kfdy around 10z, kmfd and kcle
around 12z, kcak and kyng around 13z, and keri around 15z.
brought all sites down to mvfr as a starting point in showers
and thunderstorms, but ifr is possible in the briefly heavier
rain and gusty winds. a lull is expected behind this complex for
late morning through the afternoon with vfr conditions, but then
additional showers and thunderstorms will start to develop this
evening into tonight. confidence on the location of the activity
this evening and tonight is very low, but tried to show the
western half of our area around ktol, kfdy, and kmfd having
better chances for thunder than sites farther east.

light s to sw winds early this morning will increase by mid to
late morning and become gusty through the afternoon. expect sw
winds of 10-15 knots by this afternoon, gusting to 20-25 knots
at times. sw winds will decrease this evening.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected through
thursday as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move
across the airspace. some storms could be strong to severe
during this timeframe.

&&

.marine...
sw winds will increase to 15-20 knots later this morning through
the afternoon behind a warm front. this will build wave heights
to over 4 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern
basins. at this point, expect the biggest waves and strongest
winds to be in the open waters, so did not issue a small craft
advisory, but it will be very close. boaters should nonetheless
expect choppy conditions.

winds will become light and variable tonight, and expect that to
largely be the case through wednesday as a frontal boundary
oscillates just south of the lake. stronger winds averaging a n
direction will then begin late wednesday and continue through
friday as the front finally pushes south and canadian high
pressure attempts to build across the great lakes.

otherwise, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will impact the lake
today through wednesday. any organized storms that cross the
lake could produce locally strong winds over 50 knots and high
waves.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10/13
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
805
fxus63 kiwx 100519
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
119 am edt mon aug 10 2026

.key messages...

- several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
into tuesday. damaging winds and large hail are the main
concerns, but an isolated tornado or 2 is possible.

- flooding concerns may increase depending on rainfall amounts
across the area with each round. a flood watch is in effect
for some portions of the area.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 111 am edt mon aug 10 2026

focus of discussion and any forecast updates will be on next 24 to
36 hours with regards to severe and hydrologic concerns. getting
discussion out early to to potential storms over next couple of
hours.

we are monitoring a cluster of thunderstorms from se wi into
northern il. while some occasional severe reports came from earlier
storms, the main storm of interest (hp supercell) is rooted on the
outflow boundary from the earlier storms with some hints at this
moving more se with time. other storms continue to try to develop
and expand, including far nw parts of the area. this leaves a lot of
uncertainty as to what occurs overnight. plenty of instability
remains across the area, but near sfc inhibition may limit wind
potential overnight. suffice to say, risk of severe remains in play
across the area. for the latest updates on the mesoscale features,
monitor spc products. in addition, a flash flood watch was issued
earlier to cover several counties to cover the recent rainfall and
potential for some areas seeing more heavy rain overnight. this is
currently in effect until 11 am edt, but given the concerns of the
convective evolution overnight no changes are planned at this time.

in the wake of the overnight/early am storms, the atmosphere will
recharge once again with plenty of cape and sufficient shear to bring
yet another severe threat monday afternoon and evening. much like
today, the main threat will be damaging wind along with some large
hail. if any outflow boundaries linger in the area, these could help
with a localized tornado threat. also in play will be the continued
threat of heavy rainfall as pwats remain about 1.75" and warm cloud
depths of 14 k to 15kft. may need to expand the flood watch in area
and time depending on what evolves overnight. sadly, trends in the
models do show yet more storms developing later monday evening into
tuesday morning (possibly the 4th round of storms since sunday
evening). not even going to try to do anything in the forecast with
this given the plethora of challenges from previous rounds of storms
that cannot be fully resolved this far out.

deepening on the location of the stationary boundary tuesday, one
more round of convection could occur focused south of us-30. again,
no changes to forecast with regards to this, just something to keep
in mind with the flood threat possibly still there.

beyond tuesday night, models seem to push the effective boundary
south of the area to give us a reprieve from the rain and storms.
however, the overall upper level flow doesn`t change much so low
confidence at this point and model blend will be left alone.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 111 am edt mon aug 10 2026

despite ongoing storms in portions of n il and even some new
development near kmgc, confidence in potential impacts overnight
is on the low to medium side. models seem to suggest an increase
in storms overnight with ksbn maybe seeing the best chance for
impacts. making some minor adjustments to tafs, but amendments
are likely over the next several hours as we hopefully get a
handle on the convective evolution in the 7 to 12z mon window.
also, additional storms are expected this afternoon and evening
with another possible round just outside the valid period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-023>025-103-104-116-203-204-
216.
oh...none.
mi...flood watch until 11 am edt this morning for miz078>080-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
040
fxus63 kdtx 100346
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1146 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thundestorms are possible tonight. isolated storms
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
flooding rainfall. locations near the southern michigan border
carry the highest risk.

- seasonable temperatures continue into mid week, with chances for
thunderstorms primarily focused near the southern michigan border
monday night and tuesday.

- dry weather is expected to end work week.

&&

.aviation...

another disturbance rippling along the front offers a chance for
redeveloping showers/storms late tonight-early monday morning.
models continue to struggle to handle this pattern so have
introduced prob30 chances to all terminals. a period of borderline
mvfr ceilings follows for monday morning before diurnal heating
slowly scatters cloud cover.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for redeveloping
showers/storms late tonight-early monday morning over southern mi.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low to moderate for thunderstorms tonight.

* moderate for ceilings aob 5000ft monday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 215 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

discussion...

a stable airmass in place over southeast michigan for now, as dew
pts started the day in the 50s. a mcs over the western great lakes
tracking across southern lake michigan will attempt to transport
moisture/instability across the border by early this evening.
surface dew pts are currently lowers 70s degrees over northern
indiana. sufficiently strong (40 knots) southwest low level jet
early this evening to transport instability/solid negative showalter
indices into the south half of the cwa. the stronger wind fields and
localized stronger 0-6 km bulk shear will support a chance of severe
storms, especially toward the southern michigan border this evening
where the sharp instability gradient will reside. machine learning
suggests all severe hazards are in play, including an isolated
tornado as 0-1 km bulk shear increases above 20 knots. despite mid
level lapse rates looking average, mlcapes aoa 1500 j/kg suggests
large hail threat, which is in addition to the main hazard, damaging
winds. however, if abrupt southeast development occurs with the
upstream mcs and it dives into northern indiana (a distinct
possibility), our severe threat will be diminished as the moisture
transport fails to materialize. regardless, the deep moisture plume
(pw up to 2 inches) looks to be fold over and descend south into the
ohio valley overnight as 850 mb winds veer more westerly. thus,
chances for training and significant flooding rainfall seems to be
low locally, with much higher chances over the northern ohio valley.

there is fairly good model agreement regarding subsidence and dry
conditions for most of monday, before some late-day attempt to
destabilize as a subtle shortwave rides along in the west-northwest
upper level flow established over the great lakes region. once
again, the corridor along and south of i-94 will have to be watched
for possible severe storms during monday evening/night.

the close proximity of the moisture axis and substantial instability
over the ohio valley on tuesday will also need to be watched closely
as the strength of upstream shortwave tracking through midwest is
assessed. nbm pops suggest sufficient moisture transport returning
into the southern part of the state will supports likely showers and
thunderstorms near the border, along with a low severe threat.

the jet stream/strong westerlies will remain across the northern
great lakes through bulk of the work week and will become enhanced
on thursday as upper-level ridge builds over the southeastern united
states to close out the work week. predominately confluent upper
level flow supports dry conditions and near-normal temperatures.

marine...

a slow moving, stalled frontal boundary will impact the region
through middle parts of the week, leaving varying wind directions at
times and winds generally less than 20 knots. multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are possible through mid-week, especially across lake
erie where chances are greater for severe weather and strong
thunderstorm winds. by mid to late week, a weakly organized area of
low pressure becomes develops across the northeast, followed by high
pressure of 30.1 inches gradually dropping southeast across the
central and eastern great lakes. this will favor an uptick in
northwest winds wednesday through friday.

hydrology...

one or possibly two round of showers and thundestorms are expected
to track through southeast michigan this evening and tonight. given
the progressive nature of this activity, and with the most intense
convection likely remaining south of the border, the chances for
significant flash flooding remains low (barring unforeseen training
of storms). nonetheless, a few strong thunderstorms will bring
rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour, which could still cause
minor flooding in urban and poor-drainage areas. the daytime hours
of monday look to be mainly dry before another low chance of heavy
rain producing storms develops near the southern michigan border.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sf
marine.......ja
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.