Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
437
fxus61 kcle 111941
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
341 pm edt mon may 11 2026

.what has changed...
freeze warnings have been issued for the far eastern counties in
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania and a frost advisory has been
issued remaining counties in ohio for tuesday morning. the rest of
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) frost and freeze headlines have been issued for northern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania for tonight into tuesday morning as
temperatures drop down into the mid to low 30s.

2) moderate rain is expected late tuesday night into wednesday as
low pressure moves through the great lakes region. lingering showers
possible across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania into
thursday.

3) warming trend across the region starting on friday into next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
temperatures will continue to be below average through overnight
tonight as cold high pressure builds in across the region. 850mb
temperatures have trended warmer over the past few model runs
ranging between -2c to the northeast to 2c to the southwest of the
area. this has lowered confidence in a wider spread freeze potential
outside of the far eastern tier of ohio counties and in
pennsylvania. additionally, winds across western ohio will be out of
the northeast as the high moves to the east creating on shore flow
that will keep temperatures in northwestern ohio a couple degrees
warmer. the further west and south in the cwa, the harder it will be
to have widespread frost due to the winds being slightly stronger
and being on the warm side of the 850 temperatures. frost formation
in low lying and sheltered areas are still likely given the setup.
with that being said, a freeze warning has been issued for the
eastern tier of ohio counties along with the two pennsylvania
counties. the remaining ohio counties, to include the lakeshore
zones of ashtabula, oh and erie, pa, have been placed in a frost
advisory. both of these headlines are valid from midnight tonight
through 8am tuesday.

key message 2...
low pressure will enter the great lakes region late tuesday night
bringing widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms to the area
through early thursday. precipitation will enter from the west late
tuesday ahead of a cold front and exit to the east midday wednesday.
current forecast has around 0.50" for qpf across the area, with some
locally higher amounts possible if there are heavier showers
associated with convection. as the cold front exits to the east,
there will be northwesterly flow across the region and lake erie
that will help generate some lake enhanced showers across
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. generally, these
showers are expected to be light with no major accumulation. these
showers will linger in the region through thursday until high
pressure and ridging builds in from the west and winds shift
thursday afternoon.

key message 3...
starting saturday, upper level ridging will begin to build into the
eastern half of conus and temperatures will warm across the area as
a result. the highs this weekend will reach into the upper 70s to
low 80s across the region. by early next week, temperatures will
climb further into the mid to upper 80s. additionally, dew points
will climb as well with the influx of moisture due west to
southwesterly flow across the region.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with vfr to persist
through the taf period. a sct to bkn deck around 8kft will
gradually become few to skc late this evening and overnight.
north to northwest winds this afternoon of 8 to 12 knots will
become light and favor a north to northeast direction overnight,
less than 5 knots. winds will shift towards the south and
increase to 8 to 10 knots tuesday afternoon. a weak lake breeze
will impact eri and potentially reach cle by early afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms late
tuesday through wednesday with lingering rain and low ceilings
through thursday. non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms late friday into saturday.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet marine conditions will continue through tuesday
as high pressure gradually exits east of the area. south to
southwest winds will increase ahead of a low pressure system
tuesday night into wednesday, 15 to 25 knots, though winds will
likely be closer to 15 to 20 knots in the nearshore. small craft
chances will increase later wednesday into thursday as flow
shifts towards the west, then northwest behind a cold front, 15
to 20 knots, with 4-footers appearing more likely. winds will
weaken to less than 15 knots thursday night through friday as
high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
ohz003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-089.
freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
ohz014-023-033.
pa...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
paz001.
freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
522
fxus63 kiwx 111814
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
214 pm edt mon may 11 2026

.key messages...

- a frost advisory has been issued for areas along and north of
us-30 with temperatures having a chance to dip down into the
30s. consider taking steps to protect fragile plants.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible tuesday
evening. the threat for widespread severe weather is low.

- warm to end the work week, but rain will also be possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 207 pm edt mon may 11 2026

with a cold front to our south, 850 mb temperatures have been able
to drop down into the low single digits celsius with a few areas
having been able to reach 0c. this may be enough to allow frost
again tonight. three flies in the ointment appear to be increasing
pressure gradient and potential arrival of clouds inhibiting full
radiational cooling between 10 and 12z in our northwest as a low
pressure system arrives. and the third fly is that the winds come
around to the east, which may act like the sweat mechanism that
could cool things or it could moisten things up. not entirely sure.
it does appear that decoupling of the boundary will occur when
interrogating bufkit forecast soundings of the nam. an interrogation
of models indicates that areas near lk mi have the greatest chance
of seeing frost with how dry it gets, but perhaps some of the
counties north/south of the in/mi border have some chance of seeing
some frost as well. given this explanation of confidence of frost
formation, have gone ahead and issued a frost advisory with some
areas along us-30 and south of the toll road maybe having more
patchy frost rather than areas.

otherwise, our dry weather on tuesday will be replaced by unsettled
weather, especially as a moist axis arrives in the evening. model
soundings at the end of the hrrr run are very dry though,
reminiscent of inverted-v type soundings, which need weaker shear to
generate damaging wind gusts in a dry thunderstorm setup. the other
issue is the instability is very weak at only between 500 to 1000
j/kg of mucape. better mid level lapse rates wait to push into the
area until between 6 and 12z tuesday night. as long as the low level
dry air and minimal instability continue to be modeled that way, it
doesn`t really leave much confidence in severe weather potential for
storms arriving near sunset. however, think the strongest chance for
any strong to severe storms would be gusty winds and maybe some
hail, especially if we can moisten quickly overhead, which is what
models are showing. there is some large scale ascent to work with so
that may help.

negative theta-e advection pushes in tuesday night in conjunction
with a cold fropa. given resultant low level lapse rates as the mid
levels cool and low levels warm, and forcing from a deepening upper
low, wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated showers around. the
trend will be to dry things out though and so the afternoon brings
lower chances for those showers, especially as a lake shadow begins
to form. mid level heights rise wednesday afternoon as surface high
pressure pushes in especially for thursday, leading to a dry day.

positive theta-e advection returns for later friday but it appears
mid level ridging to our east may have to be overcome before rain
arrives. that and that there`s a deepening and stacked upper low
over the northeast conus. because of this blocking, it appears
there`s quite a bit of uncertainty with when and where rain happens
between friday and the weekend. weaker forcing probably also keeps
much of the rain out of the area on friday, especially the
afternoon. i am skeptical of the quick trough evolution on the
ecmwf, which is an outlier, given the upper low over the northeast
conus. perhaps a slower evolution could provide some rain during the
overnight period as the gfs` trough goes negative. better agreement
exists for the sunday period for rain.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 107 pm edt mon may 11 2026

high pressure moving over the great lakes provides tranquil
conditions for this taf period. cannot rule out a stray gust to
20kts at ksbn this afternoon, but so far these gusts have been
limited to the lakeshore. just beyond this taf period is a
chance for -tsra as a cold front approaches.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight to 8 am
edt /7 am cdt/ tuesday for inz005>009-012-014-017-018-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
oh...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016.
mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
810
fxus63 kdtx 111822
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
222 pm edt mon may 11 2026

.key messages...

- freeze warnings are in effect tonight for the thumb and portions
of the tri cities. a frost advisory is in effect tonight for the
remainder of southeast michigan.

- numerous to widespread showers with a rumble of thunder move in
tuesday afternoon and night. no severe weather is anticipated
although small hail will be possible.

- a warming trend carries temperatures above normal next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

canadian surface high pressure will center over the great lakes
aggregate this evening, only drifting to lake erie and lake ontario
midday tuesday. strong signal exists in evening marine layer/lake
breeze release off of lake huron westward into the cwa. high
confidence exists in calm wind environment developing with ideal
radiative cooling conditions tonight. the question comes down to
whether or not the interior thumb down into northern macomb county
will need a freeze warning versus a frost advisory. otherwise, frost
advisory will be needed. will make headline decisions later on with
neighbor collaboration considerations.

compact upper level jet streak packet with sharp cyclonic curvature
to the speed maxima will dig into the great lakes tuesday. latest
trend of the model data supports greatest low level warm advection
and 850mb frontogenesis will push through the northern cwa in
vicinity of and to the north of saginaw bay between 15-20z. looking
at high based lead isentropic ascent activity early on and the
gridded forecast has greater than 60% pops. not expecting a long
duration of precipitation during daylight hours with mean rh in the
forecast soundings struggling to saturate in the lowest 7.0 kft agl.
a big narrative with this system will be low dewpoints that will
ultimately limit instability. forecasted 2m dewpoints are not
expected to climb above 50 degrees until 03z wednesday with mucapes
only rising to 400-500 j/kg from northwest to southeast between 01-
07z wednesday morning. a steepening of lapse rates in the lowest
portion of the column will be possible across the southern forecast
area around the 06-07z time window, which could allow for some gusty
west winds with some outlow contribution (40 mph or less).
otherwise, small hail will be possible with activity along with a
brief heavy downpour. absolute shortwave energy within the composite
trough axis and associated cold midlevel air will support scattered
rain shower activity through wednesday afternoon and evening.

the combination of upper level confluence and rising geopotential
heights will support another period of surface high pressure late
wednesday night through a good portion of friday. below normal
daytime temperatures are expected thursday.

progressive pacific jet streak and airmass is then expected to push
into the state for next weekend. reasonably high confidence signal
exists for a milder and higher dewpoint airmass over the area. lots
of uncertainty with regards to timing and duration of rain shower
activity from late friday through the weekend. latest model data has
less coverage for the synoptic scale warm advection rain activity
late friday here over michigan with low confidence then brewing
because of a favorable pattern for convection and mcs systems
upstream over the northern plains. high temperatures next weekend
could very well end up near 80.

&&

.marine...

high pressure centrally located over the great lakes will depart and
wash out across new england through tomorrow morning. this will
maintain light winds through today and will reorient wind direction
from the southeast by tomorrow morning. a low pressure clipper
system will then progress from the northern plains into lower
michigan late tuesday into early wednesday. the pressure gradient
will strengthen as a result and will increase the magnitude of
southeast flow, producing gusts ranging 20 to 25 knots. this will
quickly elevated wave heights aoa 4ft across the lake huron
shoreline and through the saginaw bay, where small craft advisories
are now in place. passage of the low will veer wind direction from
southeast to northwest on wednesday. rain showers with some embedded
thunderstorms will be likely this system. a lull in wind speeds and
wave heights will be likely as the low progresses directly over the
state. however, the northwest flow will accelerate cold air
advection, improving mixing depths and likely bringing renewed gust
potential towards 25 knots late wednesday into thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1235 pm edt mon may 11 2026

aviation...

resident mid level moisture will support sct to bkn high based
(above 6000 feet) clouds during the afternoon, primarily across the
metro detroit terminals. ongoing light northerly winds will sustain
ample low level dry air, maintaining vfr conditions through the day.
high pressure will expand into the eastern great lakes tonight. this
will sustain light east winds across se mi. departure of the mid
level moisture this evening and continued dry air in the low levels
will warrant clear skies tonight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for
miz047>049-054-055-062-063-070.

frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt tuesday for miz053-
060-061-068-069-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm tuesday to 4 am edt wednesday for
lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......am
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.