Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
528
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
217 pm edt tue jun 30 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track with no changes to heat headlines.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure continues to build to the south east with hot and
humid conditions expected through the end of the week.

2) the upper level ridge begins to break down late this week and
precipitation chances will return to the region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the upper level ridge continues to build across eastern conus this
afternoon with surface level high pressure building across the ohio
valley. this will bring persistent west to southwesterly flow across
the region resulting in 850mb temperatures around 20-24c. similar to
the past few model runs, the nam has been the warmest with 850mb
temperatures up to 26c by wednesday evening. currently, wednesday
and thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week with
multiple areas contesting 100 degrees. dew points are trending a few
degrees lower than they are today which will help with warmer air
temperatures. regardless, heat indices will still be over 105 for
much of the area today through the end of the week. friday has been
trending drier as precipitation has slowed down to be into saturday
keeping friday`s heat indices elevated as well. overnight
temperatures will provide little relief as lows will only get down
into the mid to upper 70s. this will increase any heat related risks
along with the duration of the heat lasting through the end of the
week. heat headlines are valid through thursday evening, though it
is possible to see headlines be extended into friday.

late friday night into saturday, the upper level ridge begins to
break down and the surface high will retreat to the southeast. flow
will become more zonal over the great lakes region which will help
regulate temperatures into the weekend. highs will still be above
average with warm overnight lows as well, but should fall below
advisory criteria.

key message 2...
the upper level ridge will begin to break down late this week into
the early weekend and precipitation chances will return to the
region. there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
extent of the surface high retreating to the southeast and the
timing of it. models have trended slower over the past few runs with
the latest nam and gfs keeping the ridge axis further to the west
than previously. will need to continue to monitor as we get closer
for potential for severe weather as it`s possible thunderstorms will
track along the upper portion of the ridge. on friday, with the
slower exit of the high, there will be potential for some lake
enhanced showers, though confidence is low at this time. on
saturday, models depict a shortwave moving across the great lakes
region bringing increased showers and thunderstorm potential. given
the water loaded environment, there will be heavy rain potential as
well. as mentioned above, still a lot of uncertainty on most aspects
of this feature at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period with
afternoon few/sct cumulus clouds and southwest flow around 10
knots with gusts up to 20 knots during the afternoon.

outlook...scattered thunderstorms are possible friday through
sunday, mainly during the afternoon.

&&

.marine...
southwest flow around 10 knots expected through at least
saturday morning. a lake breeze is expected each afternoon east
of cleveland, which could result in some better onshore flow
and choppiness (closer to 2 ft waves) during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.climate...
hotter and more humid weather is expected through friday.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
157 pm edt tue jun 30 2026

.key messages...

- extreme heat warning remains in effect area-wide through
thursday evening. daily highs in the 90s and heat indices
between 100 to 110 degrees are expected.

- record warm overnight lows in the mid 70s will offer little
to no relief from the heat at night.

- highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for the 4th of july with
20-50% chances for rain and storms.

- remaining warm through early next week with highs in the 80s
and periodic chances for rain and storms.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 155 pm edt tue jun 30 2026

an amplified, dominant upper level ridge will bring very hot and
humid conditions through at least thursday, july 2nd. as surface
high pressure builds over the southeast us, southwest flow into our
area continues to usher in very humid air (dewpoints in the mid 70s)
due to a developing connection with the gulf. with such a humid
airmass, it can be difficult to achieve temperatures above the mid
to upper 90s in our forecast area. while reaching 100 degrees is not
out of the question on wednesday and/or thursday (particularly in nw
ohio), nbm probabilities are very low at 15% or less. an extreme
heat warning remains in effect for the entire forecast area through
thursday. daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90s each day
through thursday with peak afternoon heat indices between 100 to 110
degrees. near record warm lows in the mid 70s over the next few
nights will offer very little to no reprieve from the heat. due to
the duration and intensity of the late june/early july heatwave,
heatrisk will be maxed out at major to extreme across the area today
through thursday. despite it being summer, which is typically the
hottest time of year for our area, take precautions in the heat to
ensure you are staying cool and reducing risks for heat related
illnesses!

as the upper level ridge flattens and begins to break down into
early july, model guidance reintroduces rain/storm chances to our
area just in time for the 4th of july weekend. exact details are
murky and confidence is very low in exact timing/placement of
rain/storms, but we will have to monitor for complexes of storms
(mcss) that ride the periphery of the flattening ridge. our 4th of
july forecast currently has highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with
20-50% chances for rain and storms. while it may be slightly
`cooler` into early next week with highs in the 80s, the long term
pattern continues to favor above normal temperatures through mid
july.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 105 pm edt tue jun 30 2026

pesky mvfr stratus has finally mixed out, but cu bases still in
the upper end of mvfr to low vfr which poses a bit of a
challenge in the tafs. satellite shows overall coverage starting
to decrease at both locations, so opted for a few hour tempo
group mention at ksbn (although could be gone within the next
hour or so). delay in the start of full mixing has delayed some
of the stronger wind gusts. these should pick up with time, then
diminish near/after sunset.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for miz078>081-
177-277.
air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
358 pm edt tue jun 30 2026

.key messages...

- an extreme heat warning remains in effect tonight through thursday
for high temperatures reaching the mid 90s to 100 degrees and heat
indices in excess of 105 degrees each day.

- little to no relief is offered at night as lows only cool into the
mid 70s with heat index around 80 each night.

- wednesday and thursday are the hottest days, however hot and humid
conditions also extend into friday and the holiday weekend.

- there is a low chance for thunderstorms during the week, mainly
toward the tri cities and thumb. potential then increases across
all of se michigan during the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

excessively hot and humid conditions are taking root across lower mi
this afternoon, on schedule to remain entrenched over the region
through the mid week period. afternoon observations indicate
temperatures rising firmly into the lower and mid 90s combined with
surface td in the mid to upper 70s for heat index exceeding 105 at
numerous reporting stations as of this forecast issuance. the
extreme heat warning then remains in effect as temperatures barely
drop back below 80 tonight. these warm overnight lows make it even
easier for day 2 of this event to unfold wednesday afternoon.
guidance high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100, and peak heat
index of 105 to 110, are easily within reach assuming minimal
potential for cloud or storm disruption of temperatures through
wednesday afternoon.

the brief flare-up of a few showers earlier this afternoon in the
thumb illustrates the typical uncertainty on convective trends in
these hot and humid air masses. surface td in the upper 70s toward
the tri cities and thumb allowed a brief updraft to sneak past the
21c 800 mb cap shown in the 12z dtx sounding. this occurred as
boundary layer moisture mixed out with peak heating and could result
in another stray shower or storm until early evening.

also a consideration for thunderstorm potential is the close
proximity of the mcs track across the northern great lakes over the
next several days. for tonight, a vast majority of hi-res models
among the href and refs carry the next round of surface based
convection from along the upper midwest cold front into the u.p. and
northern lower mi, guided by the sw to ne mid level flow. low level
jet forced nocturnal convection has a similar origin and track
following along the west edge of the cap formed by the mid level
thermal ridge centered over lower mi. the arw and nam suggest some
tendency for late afternoon midwest storms developing toward central
lower mi this evening, a lower probability outcome considering the
greater cap strength farther into central lower mi. there is a
slightly better chance of surface based storms grazing the tri
cities wednesday afternoon, again judging by href and refs members
along with a survey of model soundings that show the cap even more
vulnerable there during afternoon peak heating.

day 3 of extreme heat and humidity then holds across the region for
thursday, although subject to even greater potential for disruption
due to storms and/or cloud debris. as it stands in today`s guidance,
high temperatures make another run toward 100 across metro detroit
and at least the mid 90s toward the tri cities and northern thumb.
there is support for leaning toward the lower end of the temperature
guidance range as deamplification of the larger scale mid/upper air
pattern is already underway by thursday afternoon. however, the 105
degree heat index threshold for the warning remains easily
reachable. a drop off peak is more likely by friday as the long wave
pattern transitions to an even more zonal configuration across the
northern tier of states into the great lakes. assuming no downward
revisions to guidance, then the warning may need to be extended into
friday for the detroit metro area and drops off to advisory along
and north of i-69. an advisory transition is possible for the entire
area when factoring in a greater influence of storms and/or debris
clouds as the stalled surface front wavers across northern lower mi.

prospects for an air mass change increase during the weekend as the
northern great lakes front makes a move toward the ohio valley.
today`s 12z extended range models offer solutions that bring the
front into southern lower mi saturday and south of the ohio border
by late sunday. this timing is dependent on northern ontario surface
high pressure building adequately southward with a boost from the
blocking mid/upper level ridge and a more uncertain southern stream
short wave ridge reaching the midwest by that time. for now,
temperature guidance softly reflects the potential cooling trend
with highs in the mid to upper 80s by sunday and monday.

&&

.marine...

a hot and humid air mass resides over the region today and through
the rest of the week. prevailing wind will be from the southwest at
10 to 15 kt with gusts generally capped around or below 20 kt due to
increased stability over the relatively cooler water. the heat dome
will maintain very low chances for precipitation for most of the
area, but northern lake huron will reside near the edge of the cap
which offers potential for several rounds of thunderstorms this
week. low confidence exists on timing, but the favored windows for
storms appear to be centered on tonight and wednesday night. severe
thunderstorms will be possible, capable of producing wind gusts in
excess of 50 kt and large hail. the cap migrates farther south by
late week which brings higher chances for storms to the rest of
the region by thursday and friday.

&&

.climate...

.daily records for the upcoming week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 96 (1931) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 98 (1933) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 99 (1964) 77 (2018)
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 202 pm edt tue jun 30 2026

aviation...

dominant high pressure system will govern conditions across the
terminals through the taf period, ensuring dry conditions. the
impressive humidity has aided in the generation of a sct-bkn cumulus
deck since the mid-morning hours. prior mvfr cloud bases have
generally lifted and/or thinned out this afternoon as boundary-layer
mixing erodes the lowest thermal inversion. a vfr state is expected
to hold at the taf sites through the rest of the day, and overnight.
west-southwest flow should be preserved through the full taf cycle
given the stationary configuration of the large-scale features.
diurnal enhancements to gust magnitudes favor a general range of 20-
25 knots before 01z this evening. the surface pressure gradient will
weaken slightly overnight, with winds responding accordingly. minor
signal exists in model data to reestablish a mvfr stratocumulus deck
tonight, but confidence is too low in such occurrence at this time.
hot, humid, and dry conditions persist through the first half of
wednesday with vfr diurnal cumulus.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast today or tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......tf
climate......mv
aviation.....kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.