Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 060503
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1203 am est fri nov 6 2026

.what has changed...
overall forecast expectations are unchanged for this issuance.

&&

.key messages...
1) another cold front, showers, and turning cooler through the early
part of the weekend.

2) turning milder once again into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
pattern turns busier in the wake of the second cold front coming
through tonight, and a closed upper low dropping into the southern
great lakes. line of showers with the front tonight, then a
transition to cold air advection showers with low level flows off of
lake erie friday through saturday night. showers in the wake of the
front will primarily involve the lake effect areas with near surface
f-gen occurring downstream of non-zero values of 0-2km cape over
lake erie. moderate rain showers for short periods of time will not
be out of the question as a result. 850mb temperatures below zero
will translate to upper 40s away from the lakeshore saturday and
lower 50s along the lakeshore, but still far too warm for any frozen
precipitation in the forecast. upper low and favorable low level
flows off the lake will exit sunday as high pressure builds over the
tennessee valley.

key message 2...
upper pattern more zonal through early next week, so this will keep
the warming trend on the gradual side without any significant
meridional swings to the upper level pattern. dry weather returns to
the fold with 60s back in the forecast for monday and tuesday.
looking at another brief and modest cool down into the end of next
week.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
showers and associated mvfr are beginning to spread into nw ohio
affecting ktol, and these showers and lower cigs will slowly
advance eastward through the rest of the terminals through 12z
this morning. brief drops to ifr remain possible after the
onset of the showers, but mvfr will be most prevalent. there
will be a lull in the showers from west to east behind the front
later this morning with cigs improving to vfr by late morning
into the afternoon, especially in nw and north central ohio, but
wraparound moisture and another trough crossing lake erie will
bring showers back into the snowbelt of ne ohio and nw pa by
late afternoon through tonight, so have additional showers
impacting kcle, kcak, kyng, and keri late this afternoon
through the end of the taf cycle. decided to keep showers
prevailing all day today at keri. there will likely be a break
there too in the early afternoon, but it will be much shorter.

w to sw winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will turn nw
after sunrise. nw winds will increase to 5-15 knots in the
afternoon, with some gusts to 20 knots at times before
diminishing tonight.


outlook...non-vfr expected in lake effect rain showers and low
ceilings friday night through saturday.

&&

.marine...
turbulent forecast for lake erie. southwest wind 15-25kts turns
northwesterly friday 15-25kts behind a cold front tonight. wave
heights increase once again 3-6ft friday through saturday. winds
return to southwesterly 15-25kts for saturday night and sunday with
wave heights remaining 3-5ft east of cleveland. another cold front
sunday night brings northwest winds back at 10-20kts and waves back
to 3-5ft.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...garuckas
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 060206
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
906 pm est thu nov 5 2026

.key messages...

- areas of drizzle and light rain showers to continue to expand
southeast overnight. rain showers should become focused mainly
downwind of lake michigan by friday morning.

- seasonably cold this weekend with highs in the 50s. cold
sunday morning with lows near freezing.

&&

.update...
issued at 900 pm est thu nov 5 2026

a positively tilted upper trough ejecting east from the mid ms
valley has allowed for a slowly sinking low level fgen axis to
reach the southern great lakes this evening. near term rap
progs depict a preference to two separate areas of low level
frontogenesis forcing, one progressing southeast across the
local area through 06z, and a second axis downstream of northern
great lakes upper trough. low level convergence axis associated
with lead vort max has allowed for some increase in moisture
depths past few hours across west central indiana where drizzly
precip types have trended over to some light rain. by late
tonight into friday am, deepening mixed layer depths should
allow for some lake enhanced/lake effect rain showers to become
dominant downwind of lake michigan. only tweak to grids was to
slightly nudge up pops and go with a slightly faster timing in
southeast expansion of pops following this fgen forcing. it is
possible precip amounts may eventually need to be increased a
bit for the northwest where lake enhancement could result in
narrow corridor of 0.25"+ inch amounts.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 127 pm est thu nov 5 2026

cold front is located from nw lower mi to nw illinois with
coldest air lagging somewhat behind. area of weak lift ahead of
the front was allowing for some patchy drizzle or very light
showers. questions remain as to timing of the front and arrival
of colder temps and upper level/sfc troughs that will aid in
lake effect development. models vary anywhere from 00z fri to 3z
fri for fropa in the nw and taking several hours to work
across. greatest pops should focus either side of the front
where forcing is strongest with a return to lesser coverage
(possibly brief end) to showers. have tried to capture in pops
as best as possible. the larger challenge comes with transition
from a lake enhanced setup to pure lake effect. original signals
were closer to 12z fri, but signs seem to suggest this could be
delayed by at least a few hours as we await some of the
stronger troughs. still appears to be a window for 1 or 2 single
bands at the peak of the event friday afternoon. have also made
some changes with regards to timing and position, but
confidence is on the lower side on exact evolution. precip will
be in the form of rain, and as mentioned by the mid forecaster
some pretty stout instability could materialize resulting in
localized heavier rain amounts and maybe a bit of graupel if
sufficient height can be obtained. away from the lake, dry
conditions should settle in several hours behind the front.
can`t rule out some sprinkles or light showers with the passage
of each trough, but moisture will be more limited. temperatures
will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 50s and lows in the
30s heading into the weekend.

no changes in the latter period as high pressure will dominate
into mid week. pattern suggests we could be on the edge of a
more active flow with shower chances mid to late week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 648 pm est thu nov 5 2026

a pair of upper level short waves will be tracking across the
southern great lakes region and ohio valley through friday. the
first of these perturbations is approaching from the mid ms rvr
valley, with water vapor imagery showing a nice depiction of
stronger upper vort lobe across lake superior/up of michigan.
associated sfc cold front is dropping south across southern lake
michigan this evening. wind shift with frontal passage should
occur at ksbn around 03z and at kfwa closer to the 07z-08z
period. low level fgen forcing with this front will result in an
increased chance of light rain showers at ksbn after 01z or 02z.
there could be a lull in rain chances after 05z as initial wave
shifts east, but increasingly favorable lake effect/enhanced
rain shower profiles will become established overnight as the
next great lakes vort drops south. under this cold advection,
difficult to see much possibility for improvement from 1500-2000
ft cigs with a very low probability of brief ifr cigs at ksbn
during main synoptic forcing period late this evening. lake
effect rain showers will continue to be possible at ksbn friday,
with parameters for lake effect rain most favorable through 18z.
deepening mixed layer behind the front could allow some gusts to
around 20 knots on friday with cigs expected to rise above 2k
feet friday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 060445
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1145 pm est thu nov 5 2026

.key messages...

- showers increase coverage across the area tonight leading to an
active pattern that continues friday and friday night.

- temperatures return to a more typical range for early november but
are much cooler than recent days.

- dry weather helps temperatures rise a few degrees above normal
again during the weekend and early next week.

&&

.aviation...

strong absolute vorticity maximum will dig directly into southeast
michigan between 06-15z friday. height falls and differential
cyclonic vorticity advection is forecasted to result in an active
low-midlevel frontogenesis axis directly over the forecast area between
now and 09-11z, resulting in an increasing coverage of rain. this
fgen will coincide with secondary cold front or dewpoint gradient
that will result in another round of cold advection. steepening lapse
rates with saturation will result in mvfr or vfr stratocumulus
friday. northwest wind friday of 10 to 20 knots.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm est thu nov 5 2026

discussion...

a cooling trend is on schedule to bring temperatures back down to a
more typical range for early november during the late week. the
change is brought by low pressure and associated cold fronts
spanning the area from quebec, across the great lakes, and into the
midwest. smaller scale circulations within the long wave mid/upper
level trough are also regulating greater coverage of showers toward
the tri cities and northern thumb this afternoon. the pattern of
showers then shifts southward tonight along and ahead of the cold
front as it sweeps through se mi. low temperatures are projected to
drop down into the mid 30s north, but after rain ends late tonight.
lows hold up around 40 south of i-69 and across metro detroit to
ensure no precipitation type concerns, although freezing level drops
down close to 1000 ft in model soundings through friday morning.

an impressive round of mid to upper level height falls is shown in
satellite imagery this afternoon and model data tonight diving from
northern ontario into the central great lakes. this is the primary
driver of the frontal passage tonight before the system closes off
overhead during friday. scattered to numerous coverage of showers is
maintained by the strong 500 mb cyclonic circulation and cold core,
especially during the afternoon as surface temperatures strain
toward 50, and as the low moves slowly across southern lower mi.
temperatures at 500 mb hover around -22 c, about normal for this
time of year, but with the added boost from strong forcing and
daytime instability. shower coverage and intensity then pick up
considerably friday night as the low shifts eastward and the mid
level trowal/deformation wraps in from the northern great lakes.
increased model qpf reflects the 850-700 mb theta-e advection,
strong dynamics, and also a boost of enhancement from lake huron
before the moisture axis slides eastward saturday morning.

the 05/12z models show a faster than expected eastward progression
of the low pressure system considering its closed/amplified
character. the friday great lakes system reaches upstate ny during
saturday leaving lower mi dry with temperatures rising back a few
degrees above normal by sunday. midwest surface high pressure builds
into the great lakes as the northern stream westerlies shift back
north into canada. the resulting farther north low pressure track
takes the edge off the next cold front expected during the sunday
night/monday timeframe. guidance forecast temperatures around 60
look reasonable given this larger scale pattern holds through the
middle of next week.

marine...

trough of low pressure remains stretched from quebec southwestward
through the central great lakes today. an upper low will drift south
today causing the surface trough to close into a low over lake huron
friday before the whole system drifts off to the east for the
weekend. the trough will pull a cold front through the area later
this evening before the it wraps back up into a low. gusty southwest
winds today will flip around to the northwest friday into saturday
with more northerly winds across lake huron. the cold air advection
is helping to increase mixing depths over the water will help keep
the winds speeds and waves elevated through this time. this will
all lead to an extended period of small craft advisories across much
of the waters now through saturday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lhz441.

small craft advisory from 9 am friday to 10 am est saturday for
lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.