Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
128 am edt wed jul 22 2026

.what has changed...
morning and early afternoon rain and storms have exited the
area. we are now monitoring for storms to track into at least
portions of the area this evening as a cold front moves in from
the northwest.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, especially
across northeast oh and northwest pa. a few storms may be
severe, with damaging winds the greatest risk.

2) anomalously-cool air mass arrives on wednesday with lake-
effect showers possible.

3) temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the first two rounds of convection have departed the area. a
cold front extends from southeast lower mi into northern indiana
and will sweep southeast across the area this evening. organized
convection is ongoing from the thumb of michigan into southern
ontario, with a few more isolated cells farther southwest along
the front. the thunderstorms occurring from mi into on are being
aided by a vort max that`s very evident on water vapor imagery.

the thinking is that isolated to scattered convection will play
out this evening across our area. the greatest confidence,
coverage, and potential severity is expected from far northeast
oh into northwest pa, as the more organized activity aided by
the vort max from mi into on builds east-southeast. very dry
mid-levels, a warm layer around 600mb, and weaker forcing make
coverage and severity of any convection farther west-southwest
across our area more questionable. mlcape of 1000-2000 j/kg,
dcape values increasing to 700-1000 j/kg (higher west), and
effective bulk shear values remaining in the 40-50kt range can
support organized convection with a severe threat through this
evening, especially across far northeast oh and northwest pa.
potential limitations include the generally poor mid-levels
mentioned above (especially farther west), more modest low-level
lapse rates farther east across our area due to limited
heating, and effective storm relative helicity (srh) values
gradually weakening to 100-150 m2/s2.

overall, there`s greater confidence in convection with
potential for a couple or few severe storms across far northeast
oh and northwest pa after 4 pm. damaging winds would be the
main hazard, though a bit of hail and perhaps a low-end tornado
threat can`t be fully ruled out here. farther west, closer to
and west of the i-77 corridor, more isolated storms are favored
as the front moves through this evening with lower confidence in
any severe weather threat. the environment can support a
damaging wind risk if we see any storms that are deep/organized
enough to become severe farther west, though overall confidence
is lower. any severe risk should diminish by 9 pm, though a few
showers/storms may linger through about midnight as the front
continues across the area and as we potentially see a lake
enhanced shower or storm come off the lake behind the front.

key message 2...
quite the airmass change behind the front as we head into
wednesday. 850mb temperatures will dip to around 8c on
wednesday, supporting surface highs struggling to get much above
70. overnight lows will dip into the 50s and lower 60s tonight,
and then well into the 50s wednesday and thursday nights.
typical colder spots from interior eastern oh into interior pa
should see some 40s one or both of those nights.

it will be chilly enough aloft for some lake effect clouds and
rain showers to come off the lake in the north-northwest flow
overnight tonight through wednesday. this is not a particularly
noteworthy lake effect setup, just enough for meteorologists and
enthusiasts to look at the satellite and radar late tonight or
wednesday and remark "oh, there`s some lake effect on july
22nd". lake effect should largely wind down by wednesday night,
though guidance suggests that a land breeze may focus some lake
effect near the south shore of lake erie through early thursday,
so the forecast maintains some low pops through early thursday.

key message 3...
troughing will gradually lift out of the northeast through this
weekend, allowing our temperatures to gradually warm from the
end of this week into early next week. temperatures may climb
back to above normal by sunday. there is some disagreement over
when the next system comes in, it`s possible monday is quite
warm before the next cold front moves through. mainly dry
weather is expected through the weekend, with more organized
shower and thunderstorm potential returning monday into tuesday
as the next shortwave and cold front drop in.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
a few lake effect rain showers are likely at kyng early this
morning. otherwise, dry weather is expected at most terminals
with mvfr ceilings likely in lake effect clouds at ne oh/nw pa
terminals through late this morning. ceilings will likely
improve to vfr this afternoon. winds will be out of the
northwest at 8 to 12 knots with periodic gusts to 20 to 25 knots
early this morning with winds diminishing to 10 knots or less at
most terminals by afternoon. light and variable winds are
expected after 00z thursday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms on sunday.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are currently around 15-25 knots out of the
west-southwest with waves 2-5 feet with the upper end of those
occurring over the open waters. a strong cold front will pass west to
east across the lake late this evening and winds will shift to be
out of the northwest at 15-25 knots. waves will build as a result
within the near shore zones east of the islands to 3-5 feet with
occasionally waves around 6 feet. a small craft advisory is
currently active for all near shore zones to account for the current
conditions and for the conditions behind the front. the zones to the
west of the islands will see improvements shortly after frontal
passage and the small craft will last until 4am tomorrow morning.
for areas to the east, conditions won`t improve until late wednesday
night. there will be increase rip risk as well from lorain co east
through erie, pa with the increased winds and waves through late
wednesday night as well. for wednesday, there is a marginal risk for
waterspouts within showers as the lake is fairly warm and a colder
air mass moves in from the north. conditions will improve early
thursday morning through saturday night as high pressure builds into
the region. winds will decrease to less than 10 knots by thursday
morning with waves subsiding to less than 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz010>012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...15
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
158 am edt wed jul 22 2026

.key messages...

- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake michigan
beaches today through tonight. stay out of the water and off
of piers!

- dry, cooler, and less humid conditions expected through midweek.
gradually warmer into the weekend.

- the next chances for rain/storms arrive sunday into monday
(20-40% chances).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 157 am edt wed jul 22 2026

as high pressure builds over the midwest and into the great lakes, a
stretch of several days of cooler than normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity starts today! this surface high pressure will
allow for northerly winds to usher in cooler air; highs are only
expected to be in the mid 70s with lows dropping into the low to mid
50s! this pattern change will feel refreshing and is a welcome
reprieve from the heat and humidity earlier this month. lows in the
50s, while unusual from what we have been experiencing, are not that
uncommon in july. we typically average about 5 nights with lows
below 60 degrees in july. the coolest night is expected tonight into
thursday morning, with widespread lows in the mid 50s. it is
possible that some of our rural, low lying areas get to 50 or below.
nbm probabilities currently have about a 15% chance of this tonight,
but chances are less than 5% for fort wayne and south bend, where
lows will be a touch higher, likely closer to 52-53 degrees. record
lows are safe this week as many of them are in the mid 40s. while
not record breaking, we will certainly welcome these cooler, crisp
nights with lower humidity!

although the weather is quiet, the cold front that came through
yesterday has stirred up southern lake michigan. a beach hazards
statement and corresponding high swim risk will be in effect for la
porte county, in and berrien county, mi today and tonight. northerly
wind gusts to 25 kts, waves of 5 to 9 feet, and strong currents will
create life-threatening conditions for swimmers and boaters. strong
rip, structural, and longshore currents are expected today. strong
longshore and structural currents will be especially present on the
north side of piers. stay out of the water and off of piers!
conditions will be much calmer on thursday and into the weekend with
low swim risks each day.

gradually warmer into the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper
80s by sunday. moisture increases too, which means humidity likely
goes up as the weekend progresses. a frontal system brings the next
chances for rain/storms sunday into monday, although confidence is
uncertain on exact timing. our forecast area will be on the
periphery of a large upper level ridge to our west, so if we can get
sufficient instability and moisture, we may be able to get
storms that ride the edge of the ridge. severe weather is not
out of the question but with high spread in model guidance,
confidence is very low for sunday/monday at this time.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1253 am edt wed jul 22 2026

scattered to mostly cloudy skies persist across northwest
indiana downwind of lake michigan. ceilings are still vfr for
now, but may fluctuate between high end mvfr to low end vfr
near ksbn and west today. have opted to continue with a vfr
forecast with 3500 foot ceilings, though occasional lowering to
2500-3000 feet cannot be ruled out, especially at ksbn. winds
will continue to come from the north today, building to 10 to 15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts near the lake (including at ksbn)
later this afternoon and evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through thursday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late tonight for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with temperatures dipping below average develop
during the mid to late week period.

- next chance at precipitation saturday night into sunday.

&&

.aviation...

passage of the cold front earlier this evening leaves dry weather
over lower mi tonight and turns the forecast toward cloud trends for
the late night and morning. evening observations show borderline
mvfr/vfr stratus expanding rapidly southward across the area in the
cool and dry air advection post front. the dry component is
impressive as surface td drops rapidly into the 40s, which is
beginning to reflect in upstream ceiling trends more up into low end
vfr. the inbound dry air, combined with downslope into the saginaw
valley on steady nw low level wind, suggests mvfr ends up more of
tempo condition through the initial stage of daytime heating early to
mid morning. continued cool nw flow gusting near 20 knots then
quickly mixes the remaining clouds into scattered cumulus and
eventually a scattered to broken mid cloud layer by late afternoon
into wednesday evening.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not in the forecast late
tonight through wednesday and wednesday night.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and early wednesday
morning. low wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm edt tue jul 21 2026

discussion...

surface cold front begins the process of dropping through the region
this evening maintaining scattered convection across the north for
the early evening before shifting south for the latter half.
available instability decreases through the rest of the day (mlcape
falling from ~2000 j/kg towards 1400 j/kg) resulting in lessening
coverage as the evening progresses. coverage is expected to be more
isolated to widely scattered in nature once the front reaches the
southern half of the area late evening- partly from arrival late in
the diurnal window and partly from drier air in place (dewpoints in
the lower 60s vs the northern upper 60s). any strong to severe storm
chance remains isolated at best as mlcape falls sub 1500 j/kg with
shear values holding around 25-30kts.

frontal passage ushers in a markedly cooler airmass as 850mb temps
fall from mid teens to mid single digits (c) overnight dropping lows
toward the lower 50s. upper troughing and associated thermal
troughing settles across the great lakes for the midweek period
leading to seasonably cool temperatures. coolest day of the week is
wednesday where highs only reach the lower 70s with overnight lows
around 50, some 10-15 degrees below normal for late july. trough
axis shifts east over southern ontario by thursday allowing for
slight warming (850mb in the upper single digits c) supporting high
temps closer to the mid/upper 70s.

warm advection eventually redevelops friday as quasi-zonal mid-upper
flow expands across the great lakes allowing highs to return around
80. building upper ridging over the central conus this weekend
drives a weak periphery shortwave into the great lakes late saturday
night-sunday offering the area`s next shot seeing some scattered
rain. upper 80s also look to make a return late weekend/early next
week as upper ridging builds east into the central great lakes.

marine...

upper level disturbance tracking across northern michigan has led to
numerous thunderstorms across lake huron and saginaw bay. a few of
these storms have exhibited strong to severe potential, with
damaging winds of 35 to 50 knots and frequent lightning the main
concerns through early evening. a cold front tracking through this
evening then clears out remaining instability to bring decreasing
thunderstorm coverage, while also shifting winds to the northwest. a
quick pop in wind gusts toward gale force arrives this evening,
centered around 00z (8pm local) just along/behind the frontal
passage. still thinking the duration of gales will be short enough
to fall below warning criteria, but will monitor observations
closely for a short-fused product. strong cold advection will
continue through wednesday, maintaining breezy northwest flow
through the day and keeping small craft advisories in effect. beach
hazards statements are also likely again wednesday. high pressure
then fills in for the latter half of the week, resulting in a
quieter pattern for the great lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt wednesday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kdk
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.