Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
355 am edt sun mar 22 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast has changed little. a few severe thunderstorms with
damaging hail are possible in our region late this morning
through early evening, especially from roughly the latitude of
cleveland and points south. damaging wind gusts are also possible
from a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early
evening, especially roughly along and south of u.s. route 30.

&&

.key messages...
1.) unusually-warm temperatures precede a strong cold front
passage today. a few severe thunderstorms are possible along and
ahead of the cold front, especially this afternoon through early
evening.

2.) variable air temperatures are expected tonight through
sunday, march 29th. periods of precipitation are expected
tonight and again wednesday night through friday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
troughs affect our region today. at the surface, a low wobbles
ese`ward from lower mi and southern on to near southern new
england by sunset this evening. this low track will allow the
trailing surface cold front to sweep se`ward through our cwa
during the mid-morning through late afternoon hours. peeks of
sunshine and daytime heating, low-level waa, and appreciable
low-level moisture advection from the gulf are still expected to
allow highs to reach mainly the 60`s to 70`s ahead of the front.
the same processes should allow weak to moderate boundary layer
cape and steep low-level lapse rates/moderate dcape to
materialize in the warm sector, especially roughly along and
south of u.s. route 30, where longer residence time in the warm
sector and greater diurnal heating are expected. low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and any downshear
outflow boundaries are expected to trigger isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface front.
moderate to strong effective bulk shear will allow storms to be
organized (i.e. organize into multicells and supercells). the
thermodynamic and kinematic environment in the warm sector
should allow a few storms to become severe with damaging
straight-line wind gusts. for several hours following the
surface cold front passage, moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the cold front should release weak to
borderline moderate and elevated cape amidst continued moderate
to strong effective bulk shear, which should result in the
development of isolated to scattered, organized, and elevated
showers and thunderstorms. small to damaging hail remains a
concern with surface-based storms along and ahead of the surface
cold front, and elevated storms along the upper-reaches of the
front due to steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an eml
plume, which should contribute to large mucape in the hail growth
zone. some forecast model soundings, when compared to the sars
(sounding analog retrieval system) suggest severe hail up to 2" in
diameter is not out of the question with any discrete supercells
that manage to develop in roughly the knox county to mahoning county
corridor in our cwa. note: based on the expected evolution of
mucape, including within the hail growth zone, the greater potential
for severe hail exists along and roughly south of the latitude of
cleveland. however, isolated instances of marginally-severe hail are
possible farther north in our cwa.

key message 2...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and a stronger embedded
shortwave trough will impact our region tonight as a surface
ridge builds slowly from the north-central united states.
additional periods of rain are expected via moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the cold front and ahead of
the shortwave trough axis. this rain should end from northwest
to southeast between roughly 9 pm this evening and 1 am monday
based on expected evolution of the cold front passage and
stabilizing subsidence accompanying the surface ridge. it now
appears rain will end before having the chance to mix with or
change to snow via sufficient caa at the surface and aloft.
lows should reach the upper 20`s to mid 30`s around daybreak
monday.

current odds favor dry weather in our cwa this monday through
wednesday as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the
north-central united states and vicinity through monday night
and then begins to exit slowly e`ward on tuesday through
wednesday. as the ridge exits e`ward, a warm front should sweep
n`ward through our region on tuesday. despite moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the front, any resulting
precip should be in the form of virga due to a dry low-level
atmospheric column in the cold sector. continued caa at the
surface and aloft should be accompanied by highs reaching the
mid 30`s to 40f in nw pa and the upper 30`s to mid 40`s in
northern oh monday afternoon. overnight lows should reach the
lower 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak tuesday. waa at the
surface and aloft develops across our region, ahead of and
behind the surface warm front, on tuesday through wednesday.
afternoon highs should reach the 40`s to mid 50`s tuesday and
mainly the 50`s on wednesday. in between, overnight lows should
reach the 30`s tuesday night.

during wednesday night through friday, cyclonic w`erly to
nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs should impact
our region. the aforementioned surface ridge should continue to
exit slowly e`ward before a cold front sweeps se`ward across our
region late thursday. behind the front, another surface ridge
should build from the north-central united states. periods of
precip, mainly in the form of rain, are expected due to the
following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough
axes and along the upper-reaches of the front; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold front. above-
normal lows and highs are expected in the warm sector wednesday
night and thursday, respectively. behind the cold front, near
to below-normal lows and below-normal highs are expected
thursday night and friday, respectively, amidst low-level caa.

during friday night through this weekend the above-mentioned
ridge at the surface and aloft should build from the west and
eventually crest e`ward over our region. on the backside of the
ridge, another warm front should sweep n`ward through our region
friday night into saturday. latest trends in nbm forecast
guidance suggest this front passage will be dry for the same
reasons as tuesday`s warm front passage. an overall warming
trend in air temperatures is forecast friday night through
sunday due to the eventual development of low-level waa, ahead
of and behind the surface warm front.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
llws overnight before mixing occurs and can get gusts to the
surface sunday. cold front will sink southward sparking showers
and thunderstorms across the region, likely in two different
waves, generally after 17z. the thunder aspect of this forecast
is particularly tricky, and have opted for this issuance with a
more conservative forecast and covering it mostly with shra.
this may be altered for the 12z set that goes out later this
morning. behind the cold front as it sinks southward, the
ceilings should drop to mvfr and eventually ifr after 00z.

outlook...non-vfr in stratus and perhaps a few lake effect
flurries or snow showers continues sunday night into monday,
with high pressure bringing improving conditions late monday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front dropping across lake erie from north to south today
will brings a wind shift to the north later this afternoon through
tonight 15-25kts. due to the due north orientation of this
wind, wave heights will briefly approach small craft advisory
criteria for the western and portions of the central basin of
the lake. looking at wave heights 3-4ft for these areas,
generally limited to the late evening and overnight time frame.
into monday, winds turn northwesterly, but decrease to 10-20kts
and wave heights down to 2-4ft. winds become offshore tuesday
with high pressure moving east of lake erie and wave heights
less than a foot, becoming easterly wednesday around 10-15kts
and wave heights in the western basin increasing to 1-3ft.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
234 am edt sun mar 22 2026

.key messages...

- there is a 30-60 percent chance of showers today, mainly from
late morning into the afternoon. a few thunderstorms are
possible south of us-24, but severe weather is not expected.

- highs drop into the 40s for monday but slowly climb back to
the 60s and 70s by thursday.

- dry conditions are expected monday through wednesday but
additional rain is likely on thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 234 am edt sun mar 22 2026

warm front has pushed ne of the forecast area with temperatures
in the 50s to lower 60s (yes, it is still march). enjoy it while
it lasts as a cold front, which currently extends from east
central wisconsin to ne iowa, drops southeast over the next
several hours, reaching nw parts of the area near or just
before 12z. the front will continue southeast through the
morning, but slow its progress initially as a disturbances move
along the boundary prior to the arrival of the main northern
stream wave which will usher in much cooler (more seasonable)
air. a large temperatures gradient will set up with a 25 to
maybe 35 degree difference from nw to se. llj will ramp up late
morning into the afternoon ahead of the front, with a window of
warmup looking more likely as highs make a run into the mid to
upper 70s before the front arrives. moisture will remain rather
limited (low to mid 50 dewpoints), but a pocket of steeper mid-
level lapse rates, combined with the increased flow and lift
along the front should allow for a line of showers and maybe a
few storms to develop with the greatest chances for thunder
near/south of us-24. spc dy1 outlook has nudged the marginal
risk for severe storms a bit nw, coincident with the area of
best heating and moisture return. if something was to happen it
would be a very narrow window later this afternoon, with locally
gusty winds and small hail possible. another item of note will
be a increase in winds both near and behind the front as some of
the stronger low level winds mix down with some gusts maybe to
30 mph.

the shot of colder air behind the front will be rather short
lived as the trough ejects away from the region and an upper
level ridge over the sw us moves east with heights slowly
increasing. this will bring a return to above normal and
eventually one more push of much above normal temperatures by
thursday with highs back into the 60s and 70s. another northern
stream wave and cold front will arrive in the afternoon and
evening hours to bring a chance for showers (thunderstorms?)
followed by, you guessed it, a return to near or below normal
temperatures.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 120 am edt sun mar 22 2026

a low pressure system moves through the central great lakes this
morning pushing a cold front southeastward through the area.
with the arrival of a line of 700 mb vorticity, pushing into the
area around 15z, models are already initiating showers and
maybe a thunderstorm or two that could produce some hail. this
quickly congeals into a line and shifts southward slowly,
reaching fwa around 00z. it would appear that that`s just
showers moving through though and that the better chance for
strong to severe storms resides south of even fwa for sunday.
with the passage of the cold front, we`ll also have to watch for
the formation of mvfr stratus as well as gusty winds up to
around 25 kts around the evening time frame. it appears there`s
some uncertainty with the starting point of mvfr cigs at sbn so
will go with a tempo group until greater confidence can be
realized. llws will also be possible at the start of the taf
into this morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from noon today to 3 pm edt monday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
450 am edt sun mar 22 2026

.key messages...

- areas of light rain today, with a chance for a thunderstorm.

- colder and dry tonight and monday.

&&

.aviation...

a potent cold front is currently draped across southern lower
michigan and will continue its steady southward progression
throughout the morning. vfr conditions persist for the morning hours
at the southern terminals (dtw/det/yip/ptk), while mvfr ceilings
should begin infiltrate the mbs/fnt corridor shortly after 12z as
showers moisten the low levels.

lamp guidance remains aggressive with the timing of the moisture
surge, suggesting a drop to mvfr at dtw by late morning or early
afternoon (16z-18z) as low-level convergence intensifies along the
boundary. numerous rain showers will develop along and behind the
front. while the bulk of the activity will be light, a narrow
corridor of elevated instability near the ohio border may support a
few isolated thunderstorms today; however, confidence in terminal
impact remains too low to include a vcts at this time.

post-frontal winds will veer sharply from the southwest to the north-
northeast, with gusts increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day.
as cold air advection (caa) strengthens tonight, expecting mvfr
clouds to persist downwind of lake huron. surface winds do trend
north-northwest after midnight, thus confidence in cigs then begins
to decrease overnight as some drier air attempts to move in.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this morning, then high this
afternoon and evening, followed by moderate confidence overnight.

* high for all rain as precipitation type today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am edt sun mar 22 2026

discussion...

the highly dense cold stable layer over se mi held the warm front
just west of the forecast area yesterday. weak surface low pressure
now moving into nrn lake huron and veering and strengthening of the
inbound boundary layer winds is now attempting to drive the warm
front into se mi. this trend will continue during the pre dawn hours.
there is reasonable agreement among the hi res suite in suggesting
the upstream cold front getting forced south of the state line by
12z. some degree of diurnal recovery is shown from ann arbor to
detroit and points south into early afternoon, allowing temps to
hold/rise into the 50s and possibly 60s. increasing north flow
during the day will however drive a secondary cold front across the
forecast area during the course of the day, marking the lead edge of
a more notable cold air push. given the earlier arrival of this cold
air across the northern portions of the forecast area, there will be
a respectable temperature gradient across se mi during the first half
of the day.

an axis of mid level frontogenetical forcing is driving the region
of precip ongoing across western upper mi. the hi res model suite
bring this region of ascent across se mi this morning. a
reintensification of the mid level frontal forcing is then forecast
this afternoon, primarily across the southern half of the forecast
area, as entrance region upper jet support strengthens. the end
result will be occasional areas of rain oriented in a banded fashion
across the forecast area. there is strong agreement among the hi res
suite that surface based instability will develop well south of the
state line this afternoon. there is however a plume of inbound steep
lapse rates (700-500mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 c/km) set to
overspread much of the forecast area this morning. this will result
in elevated convective instability and will at least warrant a
chance for thunderstorms. convective chances look highest during the
first half of the day as the elevated instability axis is forecast to
shift south during the afternoon. while machine learning tools
indicate very low potential for hail, the steep lapse rates at least
argue for a mention of hail in the hazardous weather outlook.

low and mid level anticyclonic flow will expand across the great
lakes region from the northwest tonight into monday. cold air
advection will persistent into tonight, dropping overnight temps
into the upper 20s/low 30s. the gradient flow and some lingering
stratus will likely suppress the degree of nocturnal cooling to some
degree. the high will maintain dry and seasonally cool conditions
monday. a low amplitude mid level wave is forecast to track across
the northern lakes tuesday, sending a weakening cold front into srn
mi. limited forcing will keep precip chances minimal with this wave
an associated front. zonal flow is forecast to prevail across the
conus next week, with the the great lakes likely falling into the
baroclinic zone. this may result in highly varying temperatures
across the region, not too unusual for march in the great lakes.

marine...

low pressure, now centered over the eastern great lakes, drags a
cold front across the local region over the course of today
supporting additional scattered rain showers and potentially a
thunderstorm or two over the southern great lakes this evening.
moderate north to north-northeast flow develops behind the front
with peak gusts occuring latter half of the day into the first half
of tonight. given the fetch, the southern half of lake huron will
see the strongest wind gusts (20-25kts) with the rest of the region
holding closer to the 15-20kt range. onshore flow brings higher wave
action into the thumb nearshore waters warranting a small craft
advisory into monday. strong high pressure builds in behind the
front on monday, then the next cold front is expected to glance the
central great lakes by late tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm edt monday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...sc
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.