Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
635 pm est sat feb 21 2026

.what has changed...
winter storm watches have been issued for cuyahoga, medina,
summit, geauga, lake, and inland ashtabula counties in ne ohio
and erie county in nw pa. the watches are in effect from 6 pm
sunday through 4 am tuesday in ohio and from 10 pm sunday
through 7 am tuesday in pa. confidence continues to increase for
periods of light snow late tonight and sunday transitioning to
bands of heavy lake enhanced snowfall sunday night through
monday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow develops tonight and sunday, but accumulations
will be minimal and low impact. heavier lake enhanced snow
sunday night through monday night could bring significant
accumulations to inland parts of the ne ohio and nw pa
snowbelts, with snow covered roads and reduced visibilities.

2) weak systems tuesday night through thursday will bring
periods of rain and snow showers, with light accumulations.

3) warmer and drier conditions expected friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
winter returns for the end of the weekend and start of the work
week as colder air and deep moisture wrapping around a major
east coast blizzard leads to periods of heavy lake enhanced
snowfall in northern ohio and nw pa.

starting off this evening, broad mid/upper troughing covers the
northern conus east of the rockies with an upper low in the
central great lakes. this broad cyclonic flow pattern is
circulating colder but mainly dry conditions into the region. by
tonight, a southern stream mid/upper shortwave trough currently
crossing the lower mississippi valley will phase with the
aforementioned northern stream mid/upper low in the central
great lakes and broad/deepening mid/upper trough. this phasing
combined with strong low-level convergence along the mid
atlantic coast will lead to a rapidly deepening surface low
lifting from the vicinity of the north carolina outer banks
sunday morning to coastal maine by monday night. while this
system will make national headlines for its crippling blizzard
conditions from new jersey to maine, it will also have some
interesting impacts to northern ohio and nw pa.

light snow tied to mid-level warm air advection and isentropic
ascent near the left exit of a 130-140 knot h3 jet streak will
gradually lift northeastward into the region this evening and
early tonight, but little to no accumulation is expected before
a lull in the roughly 03-09z period. a more widespread area of
light snow is expected to develop in michigan late tonight and
sunday morning as the mid/upper trough and resultant forcing
and moisture deepens over the southern and central great lakes
in response to the phasing. this will slowly pinwheel into
northern ohio and nw pa sunday from west to east as the trough
and pva aloft continue to deepen overhead. deep synoptic
moisture will wrap into the region through the day, which when
combined with the broad pva overhead, will support frequent
periods of light snow. the strongest combination of synoptic
forcing and moisture transport will be occupied by the main east
coast storm to our east, so this will keep the snow light
sunday, with marginal temperatures in the mid 30s leading to
minimal accumulations. up to 0.5 inches is possible on grassy
and elevated surfaces by sunday evening with mainly wet roads,
keeping this portion of the event low impact.

the nuisance snow will become more impactful later sunday
evening, and especially sunday night through monday night as a
more classic lake enhanced set up takes shape. much colder air
will advect into the region as the deepening east coast storm
moves northward, and this combined with well aligned n to nw
boundary layer flow across lakes huron and erie, deep synoptic
moisture, and continued lift from the deep, negatively tilted
trough overhead will support a transition to bands of heavy lake
enhanced snows. a possible trowal could further enhance the
banding. pattern recognition increases confidence in significant
accumulations over upslope favored areas of the primary and
secondary snowbelts. hoisted watches for cuyahoga, medina,
summit, geauga, lake, and inland ashtabula counties in ohio,
and erie county in pa based on where probabilistic data gives
the highest probabilities for greater than 6 inches of snow, but
headlines (probably advisories) may be needed for bordering
counties as well. this will be monitored. at this point, people
should prepare for worsening travel conditions sunday night
across inland north central and ne ohio and nw pa, with
significant impacts to the monday morning and evening commutes.
roads will be snow covered and slippery, and gusts up to 40 mph
monday could lead to some blowing and drifting where bands
persist. the snow will gradually taper off monday night as brief
ridging and drier air work into the region.

key message 2...
there remains some uncertainty with the midweek pattern, but a
clipper system looks to dive through the central great lakes
tuesday night into wednesday. light snow (mainly in ne ohio and
nw pa) could bring some light accumulations tuesday night
before ending as some scattered rain showers wednesday as
temperatures warm. a stronger clipper system may phase with some
southern stream energy thursday and support potentially
heavier, more widespread precip, but confidence in the
temperature profile and resultant precip type, as well as the
track of the system and details of the phasing is low at this
time.

key message 3...
a quasi-zonal flow pattern should develop friday into saturday
ahead of another trough and surge of arctic air by later in the
weekend. this will allow temperatures to warm into the 40s
friday and perhaps low 50s in some areas by saturday, along with
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
mvfr ceilings persist across taf sites this evening as snow
showers begin to push into the region tonight into sunday
morning. mvfr visibilites are expected at all terminals in snow
showers with ifr visibilites most likely across western
terminals. expect for mvfr to ifr conditions to continue
through the taf period.

generally west to northwest winds 5-10 knots continue through
sunday morning. northwest winds increase to 10-12 knots sunday
afternoon.

outlook...periodic snow with non-vfr expected sunday evening through
tuesday night. non-vfr likely on wednesday in snow changing to
rain/snow with a clipper system. non-vfr may return again on
thursday as another system moves through the region.

&&

.marine...
main concern over the next several days will be the increasing north
to northwest flow of 20 to 30 knots across lake erie sunday night
into monday as a trough sweeps southeast through the region. this
will lead to abrupt southerly shifts of the ice across lake erie,
especially on monday. winds will diminish to 10 knots or less monday
night, before shifting towards the southwest on tuesday, and
increasing into the 15 to 25 knot range by tuesday night into
wednesday. winds may gradually favor a more westerly direction by
thursday, and maintain a modest speed of around 20 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from sunday evening through late monday
night for ohz011>014-020-021.
pa...winter storm watch from sunday evening through tuesday morning
for paz001-002.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...13
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
622 pm est sat feb 21 2026

.key messages...

- a combination of system snow and lake enhanced snow will bring
some light snow accumulations through sunday, with greatest
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches downwind of lake michigan.

- a period of more organization of lake effect snow bands is
expected sunday night into early monday morning. this period represents
the greatest potential for the higher snowfall rates and
impacts to travel. a winter weather advisory is in effect late
tonight through early monday afternoon for cass mi, berrien
mi, laporte in, and st. joseph in counties.

- additional rain and snow chances for wednesday and thursday
but extent of these chances and precip types remain of low
confidence.

- temperatures trend warmer late work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 pm est sat feb 21 2026

a winter weather advisory has been issued for cass mi/berrien/st.
joseph in/laporte counties from 06z tonight to 18z monday. this
event will have a few different phases. there is lower confidence in
notable impacts tonight into sunday with light system/lake enhanced
snow. the potential of higher snowfall rates and greater
impacts still looks to be sunday evening into monday am.

upstream flow is highly perturbed this afternoon with an initial
upper vort max lifting across northern illinois. vorticity advection
downstream of this feature is yielding some elevated returns per
regional radar mosaic. a relatively dry 3-7k foot layer is
limiting precip in association with this forcing. depth of this
dry layer may be small enough to allow some seeder feeder
process and a few flurries through late afternoon. on the heels
of this lead wave will be another stronger upper vort max which
is expected to dig across tn valley overnight tonight as an
upper speed max rounds the base of the trough. as this occurs,
the upper trough is expected to evolve from positively tilted to
negatively tilted into sunday which will maintain influence
from this trough across the great lakes through the day. low
level cold advection will increase, especially this evening into
the overnight. this will allow for increase in potential of
light system snow to be accompanied by some lake enhancement
into sunday morning. stronger synoptic forcing should be
displaced south and east of the local area, so only light snow
amounts are expected tonight into sunday (generally 1-3") as
lake enhancement will be somewhat limited by modest lake induced
instability depths. perhaps some compensation to southward
displaced synoptic forcing for some system snow will be
southwestward sagging low level baroclinic zone tonight arising
from collective warming influence of great lakes. this should
yield a few axes of low level fgen forcing as this modified low
level air encounters colder air advecting in across the western
great lakes. otherwise, it will become windy for sunday with
afternoon gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range. temps should level
out for the pm hours or perhaps drop a few degrees.

all indications still point to the sunday evening into monday
morning for the potential greater impacts with lake effect snow.
flow becomes more meridional in nature with better lake to lake
superior connection. stronger low level cold advection sunday night
into early monday should sharpen lake aggregate troughing with at
least a potential of a more dominant band setting up this period.
href probs suggest a better potential (albeit low potential) of
snowfall rates greater than 1" per hour sunday night. with an
initial phase of light snow late tonight into sunday, followed by
potentially more impactful period sunday night/early monday, opted
to hoist a winter weather advisory for late tonight through monday
early afternoon with emphasis on 2nd half of this event for
greater impact potential.

low level ridge axis quickly tracks across the area monday night
setting up a stronger southerly return flow situation for tuesday,
and a return of windy conditions. a rather interesting synoptic
setup looks to be in store for the wednesday-thursday period. a cut-
off negative upper height anomaly off pacific northwest coast, looks
to eject in a couple of different pieces into primary
westerlies. the first of these waves looks to eject north of the
area likely driving a frontal boundary southward across the
southern great lakes. the 2nd of these potential disturbances
will be one to watch for late wednesday into thursday.
predictability in this type of synoptic pattern regarding exact
track/depth is on the low side, but there should be a pre-
existing strong frontal boundary in place from previous 2 day
synoptic evolution. blended pops have nudged upward this cycle
late wednesday into thursday which appears reasonable.

looking ahead to late week and next weekend, some moderation in
temps is likely but local area could be prone to additional shots of
cold air toward end of this period given low level baroclinic zone
will not be located too far north of the local area via
maintenance of longwave eastern pacific ridging.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 614 pm est sat feb 21 2026

a weak and dry upper-level low is rotating through northern
illinois. returns on radar have failed to reach the ground due
to dew point depressions of nearly 10f along with a narrow dry
layer just beyond 5k ft. in the wake of this low, northwest
flow becomes uniform and enhanced through the low- and mid-
levels resulting in a period of lake enhanced snow. strong low-
level forcing suggests a period of ifr snow at ksbn prior to
12z, preceding the inherited period of ifr snow.

it will take some time for this snow to spread inland to kfwa,
but the existing taf there was generally in good shape. look for
improvement near or after 18z as the best upper-level forcing
moves on. cannot completely rule out passing snow showers late
in the taf period, hence the continued 4sm -shsn. at ksbn, lake
effect snow lingers at times into monday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 1 am est /midnight cst/ sunday to
1 pm est /noon cst/ monday for inz103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory from 1 am sunday to 1 pm est monday
for miz078-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
639 pm est sat feb 21 2026

.key messages...

- light snow tonight through sunday, with accumulations between
a half inch and 2 inches for most areas.

- brisk on monday with temps below freezing and morning wind chill
in the single digits, only rising to the teens in the afternoon.

- widespread accumulating snow tuesday into tuesday night, with
several inches possible for parts of se mi.

&&

.aviation...

mvfr cigs remain locked in with the cold cyclonic flow over the
great lakes this evening. we are still located between the stalled
trough over northern lower and the approaching mid level low that
will lift into the area tonight but this low will provide enough
lift and mid level moisture to initiate light snow most likely in
the next 3-6 hours. hard to time with it developing right overhead.
looks like once it begins we could see light snow through sunday and
into sunday night before it ends. there may be a couple periods of
reduced vsbys and cigs so will try to refine timing for those
windows. tonight and sunday afternoon currently look to be the best
windows. winds will be westerly tonight before turning more out of
the northwest by late sunday morning.

for dtw...potential for light snow increases during the early-mid
morning hours sunday with potential for periods of ifr conditions.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet through tonight.

* high for ptype of snow tonight and sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 254 pm est sat feb 21 2026

discussion...

an elongated trough remains draped from northern manitoba to across
the northern and eastern great lakes today, with widespread stratus
enveloping the area within cool cyclonic flow. occasional flurries
are possible for the thumb but generally dry and benign conditions
through the early evening as we sit between systems. a series of
shortwaves digging across the midwest will result in a deepening
trough over the eastern conus tomorrow and monday. mid-level
moisture begins to consolidate over the great lakes tonight as this
trough develops, with a broad circulation over the ohio valley
producing modest isentropic ascent that aids in seeding widespread
light snowfall later this evening into sunday.

model signal continues to highlight two primary windows for minor
accumulations. the first occurs after midnight into sunday morning
as weak ascent focuses ahead of a developing surface trough that
swings south from the stalled low over lake huron. fluffy
accumulations during this window are likely to be around a half inch
to 1 inch as temps reside in the upper 20s to lower 30s. light snow
continues through the day as temps rise a few degrees above
freezing, then higher potential for additional accumulation comes
during the evening within a more showery pattern. this emerges as
cold advection ensues behind the trough, with steepening low-level
lapse rates contributing to weak instability. temperatures during
this window may initially be above freezing but dew points in the
20s should allow for additional minor accumulations where showers
occur. there is about a 25% probability in the 12z href and refs
ensembles for 6-hour snowfall totals to exceed 1 inch - mainly north
and west of metro detroit.

the stalled lake huron low will get absorbed into a nor`easter
sunday night, with remnant troughing/banding sinking south to
maintain a 30 to 50% chance of snow showers for the thumb through
monday morning. blustery northwest flow develops through the rest of
monday as a tight gradient forms between the strengthening east
coast system and a ridge over the midwest. temps hold in the teens
and 20s monday with wind chill dipping to the single digits monday
morning and again tuesday morning. lake effect flurries will be
possible but accumulations are unlikely during this period.

the thermal trough departs on tuesday allowing for a slight rebound
in temps. a wave on the nose of an upper jet streak will engage with
the elevated frontal slope late tuesday to produce a corridor of
isentropic ascent driven snowfall through tuesday night. light snow
may develop as early as tuesday afternoon, but the main forcing
coincident with height falls and upper divergence looks to slide
through from evening into the early overnight period. there remains
a fair amount of variance with north-south placement of the forcing,
but the setup favors a gradient in qpf and snowfall amounts from sw
to ne. nbm qmd mean qpf currently ranges between 0.10" southwest to
around 0.25" northeast, supporting relatively high confidence in a 1
to 3" type snowfall event, however details in storm track and
thermal profiles will become more clear as the upper jet streak is
better sampled sunday into monday.

a secondary wave passes across the northern great lakes on wednesday
which may support additional light precip, however any precip looks
to trend to light rain or a rain/snow mix as temperatures are likely
to rise above freezing behind the tuesday night system. there is
relatively high confidence for a low pressure system to track in the
vicinity of the great lakes and ohio valley wednesday night into
thursday, but considerable uncertainty remains with deterministic
and ensemble guidance showcasing large spread in system placement
and strength. this does look like a more dynamic system which would
pose potential for gusty winds and heavier precip.

marine...

weak low pressure circulation holds over north-central lake huron
and will continue to fill in tonight. convergence along the pressure
trough has led to a band of lake effect snow, primarily north of
sturgeon point at issuance. snow will expand into southern portions
of the great lakes as well late tonight as an upper level
disturbance slides across the ohio valley. eventually the surface
low gets drawn into the rapidly deepening low off the atlantic coast
sunday afternoon, releasing the convergence axis south to cause a
secondary uptick in snow showers across the southern waters. the
strong low to our east and building high pressure over the plains
establish a tight gradient overhead, increasing northwest flow with
sustaind winds of 25 to 30 knots expected sunday night into monday.
not seeing a strong low level jet signal, so gust potential looks
like it will stay capped aob 35 knots. headlines may be needed along
the shoreline for gusts of 30+ knots and elevated waves in the ice-
free waters. high pressure then builds in briefly tuesday before a
clipper arrives mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...tf
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.