Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
345 am edt thu oct 15 2026

.what has changed...
the low pressure has trended weaker over the past couple of forecast
runs leading wind gusts tending lower for friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) there will be a chance for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts
north across the region tonight. a few storms could produce strong
gusts upwards of 50 mph.

2) a cold front will sweep through the region early friday as low
pressure moves through the great lakes bringing the chance for rain
and gusty winds.

3) coldest air of the season is expected friday night and saturday
night with frost/freeze conditions expected on sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will begin to develop in the mid-mississippi valley
midday today and deepen to the northeast into the great lakes by
late this evening. ahead of this low, a warm front will lift north
across the region late tonight into the early overnight hours. the
majority of the region should remain dry through much of the day as
showers and thunderstorms will enter northwestern ohio by 6-8pm this
evening and move eastward. the chances of thunderstorms will
decrease further east as we move into the late overnight hours and
instability will wane. on the note of instability, temperatures
through out the day will warm into the low 70s with dewpoints
climbing into the low 60s by late this evening. this will lead to
marginal instability, in the for of a few hundred j/kg along and
behind the warm front. additionally, a strong low level jet of 40-50
knots out of the southwest will accompany the warm front as it moves
north. 0-6km bulk shear of around 50 knots is also expected with the
low level jet. with this, there is potential for a few stronger
thunderstorms to produce wind gusts of 50 mph or greater. though
poor lapse rates across the region will limit how much of the low
level winds mix down and limiting the overall severe weather threat.
currently, spc has much of north-central ohio within a marginal risk
for this time period. severe weather threat should dissipate later
into the overnight as precipitation chances decrease as well with
the departing warm front.

key message 2...
the associated cold front from the low pressure system will sweep
through the region west to east friday morning into the afternoon.
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected with the front as
it moves through with widespread accumulation expected. currently
expecting around 0.25-.50" of accumulation with higher amounts
possible within thunderstorms. the low level jet and low pressure
itself has trended weaker over the past couple of model runs. this
is leading to wind gusts and winds overall being lower, even with
the strong caa behind the front. winds are still expected to be 15-
20 mph with gusts over 30 mph possible. the strongest timeframe for
winds will be after midnight friday through early saturday morning
when the winds shift to be out of the north with a secondary trough
moving through. the strongest winds are expected to be along the
lakeshore, generally from the islands east through lake county with
gusts around 35-40 mph. winds will begin to subside saturday morning
as high pressure begins to build in from the west.

with the secondary trough moving through and winds shifting to be
out of the north, lake effect showers are possible across
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. an additional
couple tenth of rain is possible with these linger showers,
primarily around cleveland and south through akron due to the
connection from lake huron with the northerly winds. the lake effect
showers should linger into saturday afternoon and begin to dissipate
as drier air moves in with the upper level ridge. dry weather is
expected through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week.

key message 3...
behind the cold front, much colder air will be advected into the
region with the northwest the north flow saturday into early sunday.
temperatures friday night into saturday morning will drop down into
the mid to upper 30s with areas near the lakeshore staying in the
40s. temperatures have trended a few degrees warmer for the region,
so there is less confidence in needing frost headlines for saturday
morning. northwestern pennsylvania will be the coldest location in
the cwa with temperatures in the mid 30s, but winds being 10-15 mph
throughout the night may inhibit frost formation.

saturday night into sunday morning will have more widespread
temperatures at 36 degrees or lower. high pressure will have built
in across much of the region at this point with only some lingering
cloud cover and winds becoming light at less than 5 mph allowing for
decent radiational cooling. trends still have the areas east of the
i-71 corridor away from the lakeshore with an over 50% chance of
seeing temperatures below freezing. frost conditions are likely
elsewhere with lower probability near the lakeshore given the lake
is still relatively warm. temperatures will begin to moderate to
more seasonal highs and lows starting sunday as the high pressure
builds to the east and southwesterly flow moves into the region.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
a warm front is expected to lift across the area this evening.
ahead of this front, mvfr ceilings are widespread early this
morning and will generally continue through midday. ceilings
will try to lift/scatter out for a time this afternoon, and do
bring some sites up to a brief window of vfr. ceilings will
likely lower back to mvfr across the board this evening along
and ahead of the incoming warm front. the warm front may be
accompanied by some mainly light rain showers. the greater
potential for showers and even some embedded thunderstorms that
can bring visibility restrictions appears to be late this
evening into the overnight. the warm front will lift out of the
area, with a brief window of warmer and more unstable conditions
ahead of a quickly approaching cold front that will cross early
friday. guidance is quite pessimistic with widespread low
ceilings (ifr or lifr at most taf sites) thursday night into
friday morning, though the current tafs lean a bit less
pessimistic for now as it can be difficult to see such low
ceilings in a robust warm sector this time of year.

northeast winds early this morning will gradually shift more
east-southeast through the day today, and then more south-
southwest behind the warm front this evening into tonight.
speeds will generally remain 10 knots or less through today
before increasing to 10-15kt with some 25kt gusts behind the
warm front tonight.

outlook...occasional non-vfr expected to continue in periods of
rain showers and lower ceilings through friday night. winds may
gust over 30kt at times friday afternoon through early saturday.

&&

.marine...
winds and waves from the islands through willowick, oh will continue
to decrease over the next few hours so the small craft advisory has
been canceled early. winds throughout today will be out of the east
at 10-15 knots, then shifting to the south-southeast and increasing
to 20-25 knots as a warm front lifts north across the lake late this
evening. a low pressure system will move north of the lake tonight
into friday sweeping a cold front though early friday morning. winds
will shift around to be out of the northwest at 20-25 knots friday
morning through the afternoon. waves will build to 6-9 feet across
the lake as a result.

a secondary trough will move across the lake friday evening and
winds will shift to be out of the north at around 25-30 knots and
waves will build to 7-11 feet. the probability of gales across the
central basin as decrease due to the low pressure system trending
weaker than previously. though, wind gusts exceeding 34 knot gales
are still possible and small craft advisories will be needed for
friday and saturday. elevated winds will persist through
saturday morning when they diminish to around 15-20 knots by
midday. winds will continue to diminish into saturday evening to
around 5-15 knots and shift to be out of the northwest with
waves diminishing as well with high pressure builds into the
region. winds will increase out of the southwest early sunday
morning to 10-15 knots and persist through monday.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...sullivan
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
554 am edt thu oct 15 2026

.key messages...

- scattered rain possible today, mainly west of i-69.

- there is a marginal risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along
and south of us route 24 this evening. confidence in severe
weather is low.

- turning much cooler and windy for friday with some lake effect
rain showers expected. watching for frost chances, which
appear the most possible sunday morning, but saturday
morning`s chances cannot be ruled out.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 245 am edt thu oct 15 2026

surface high pressure slides eastward this morning across the
northern great lakes. this allowed drier air to seep into the area
behind the slowly southward-moving cold front from wednesday. this
front quickly turns around into a northward-moving warm front today
as a deep upper low forces a surface low northward along the western
extension of the baroclinic zone down to the southern plains. so,
the attention turns to the timing of the surface warm sector`s
arrival to see if we can get surface-based or only elevated
convection. the gfs still has areas of large scale ascent moving
through the area this afternoon whereas the ecmwf appears to have
most of the better lift moving north of the area. the drier the low
levels can get and maybe lesser cloud cover before sunrise would be
better for instability formation. indications in both the nam and
the hrrr are that the surface warm front waits until 2 to 4z to get
into our southern 1 to 2 rows of zones, which would allow a short
time period (1 to 3 hours?) for surface-based convection after that.
the main ingredient of concern is the shear, which the hrrr
indicates has around 45 kts of ebwd shear. now, because the low
levels up to 850 mb are essentially saturated, lcls are sub-1000m,
but instability is 500 j/kg or below. so, perhaps there could be
some shallow supercells or cells with embedded rotation. with the
moist pwats around 1.8 inches, heavy rain rates could occur, but
cell motions are rather fast likely limiting overall flood threat;
that and the fact that we`ve been dry for so long. the other
possibility would be a moisture loaded core- collapsing damaging
wind threat, but that weak of instability may also limit that
threat. the cold front slides through overnight meaning the rain
threat is out of the area by 12z friday.

the aforementioned upper low is squeezed northeastward out ahead of
a diving upper low from canada. on it`s back side is a strong 1040
mb surface high indicative of relatively cold air that its bringing
with it. this brings in a couple of hazards that we`ll get to
describing here including lake effect rain, gusty winds, and
potentially a frost chance. for the lake effect rain, the lake needs
to get some instability going first as well as low level convergence
and a return of low level moisture behind the cold front. northwest
wind convergence combines with these features around 12z friday and
would expect the intensity of lake enhancement to increase through
around 18z when the vigorous vort max swings through. given lake
temps of 62 degrees, bufkit nam soundings indicate 15 to 25 degree
delta t values with tall lake induced inversions during the
afternoon. however, there are indications that dry air begins to
work into the low levels during the evening hours after the low
level trough moves through and trajectories go more northerly. low
level moisture moves out of the area and there are indications that
rain subsides by 12z saturday, but could see lake effect clouds
lingering saturday morning, especially in the west. then, northwest
winds swinging through friday evening gust between 30 and 40 mph,
highest along the surface trough, which could bring down a stray 45
mph gust. now, the cold air coming in friday night has 850 mb temps
down to -2c 12z saturday morning before warming ensues. the pressure
gradient slackens overnight into early saturday morning and cloud
cover also dissipates overnight bringing some questions about how
scattered out clouds can be east of us-31. given forecast lows
securely in the 30s friday night, we`ll have to watch for frost
chances then, but wind and cloud cover complicate chances. a dry day
continues on saturday and surface high pressure overhead continues
to keep the area calm wind-wise. which allows a second opportunity
for frost saturday night as the core of the cold air lifts
northeastward. forecast lows dip down into the 30s again, but an
increased gradient attempts to enter from the north. this appears to
be the only complication for another frost attempt saturday night.

looking ahead, even over the next 2 to 3 days, anomalous high
pressure building near greenland causing blocking to build peaks
during the 16th to 21st of october. this is about the time that the
nao/ao dips negative. meanwhile, the aforementioned baroclinic zone
has pushed eastward potentially stalling along the eastern seaboard
and forming an upper low or continuing to push eastward. either way,
this allows a sprawling area of high pressure to remain across the
area until at least around thursday of next week and potentially
even longer keeping dry air overhead.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 549 am edt thu oct 15 2026

no significant changes to tafs with mvfr cigs persisting at
ksbn, but improvement occurred at kfwa. cigs will likely bounce
around prior to the arrival of any showers and closer proximity
to the approaching front and sfc low. in the wake of the cold
front, winds will shift to more of a west or northwest
direction and pick up with gusts of 25 to 30 kts starting to
materialize towards the end of the period and especially beyond.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning from 11 am friday to 2 am edt saturday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
310 am edt thu oct 15 2026

.key messages...

- showers expand into the area late afternoon and linger through
early friday morning.

- a strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier
conditions friday, with a scattered showers. lake effect rain
showers develop over the thumb by evening.

- turning drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by
sunday.

&&

.discussion...

influence of high pressure wanes over the course of the morning as
it shifts into quebec. as this occurs, the next weather maker takes
shape over the midwest as southern/northern stream waves phase
resulting in developing low pressure near the upper-mississippi.
associated surface warm front lifts through the ohio valley today
with the elevated portions of the frontal slope lifting over
southern lower mi. actual activation of the slope however is delayed
until late afternoon (~20-21z) when lead vorticity/theta-e finally
reaches the area favoring a greater coverage of moderate showers
over the northern half of se mi (north of m-59) through this
evening. secondary low feature along the occluding front over
northern in/oh remains present in higher res model output resulting
in the surface warm front being confined on or just south of the
ohio border. an interesting potential outcome with instability being
held south of the area and the main low track trending a touch
further north towards the saginaw valley, is a corridor within the
southern portions of the cwa (ranging somewhere from the m-59 to i-
94 corridors) of notably less shower development due to falling in
between the areas of stronger forcing. this is scenario can be seen
in the most extreme case in the nam but a flavor of which is present
in the arw/hrrr. areawide, general qpf is expected to range between
0.25-0.5" (highest north) though if the outcome above is realized,
some locales could see only a tenth or so of rainfall.

low departs into southern ontario by friday morning tapering off the
majority of activity over se mi. parent mid-upper trough slides
across lower mi during the day bringing significantly colder air
aloft as 500mb temps fall some 20 degrees into the mid -20`s c. this
ongoing cold advection within the diurnal window steepens lapse
rates as passing trough influence supports modest upper divergence.
while the bulk of moisture is east of the region by this point,
moisture wrapping around the mature low as well as lake flux should
result in pretty good coverage (scattered to numerous) convective
showers by midday with peak coverage in the afternoon aided by a
secondary cold front dropping through the state. this front marks
the lead edge of the more robust caa as 850mb temps fall from
roughly +6c to -3c by evening. lake surface temps currently hover in
the mid teens c so more than enough delta t to spark lake effect
rain showers. winds turn north post-front favoring these bands to
work across the thumb and down into metro detroit- particularly the
eastern half.

for winds friday, the gradient weakens following the low/initial
cold front with lower level column wind within the mixed layer
looking to support peak nw gusts up around 25kts (~30mph). this
changes with the arrival of the secondary cold front late afternoon-
evening, coincident with the passage of the trough axis, leading to
a tightening gradient and column wind fields increasing towards 30-
35kts. forecast soundings are favorable for sufficient mixing depths
through the evening to tap into this flow to push peak n gusts to
35mph with 40mph likely along the lake huron shoreline.

gusty winds and lake effect wind down friday night as surface high
pressure over the midwest beings to expand into the central great
lakes. overnight lows bottom out in the lower 30s with sub-freezing
temperatures expected in areas north of i-69 though areas on the
glacial moraine could also see temps drop below 32f. below normal
temperatures in place for saturday as continuing north wind leads to
highs struggling to reach the mid 50s. surface ridge axis eventually
crosses saturday night as central conus upper ridging expands
overhead setting up southerly, warmer return flow for the new week.
ridging influence holds through at least the first half of the week,
if not longer, maintaining an extended period of dry weather and
above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 60s.

&&

.marine...

high pressure migrates from the northern great lakes into new
england today, causing easterly wind to veer southeast. the gradient
strengthens with time as low pressure over the mid-mississippi
valley tracks northeast and into the central great lakes this
evening. showers expand in coverage from late afternoon into this
evening and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly near western
lake erie and lake st. clair. as the deepening low center passes
over lower mi overnight, a 45 to 55 kt southwesterly low-level jet
will pass overhead near western lake erie. while profiles show
strong low-level stability during this period which will hold most
of the momentum aloft, potential exists for gusts to around 30 kt
after midnight.

a strong cold front will pass north to south across the region on
friday as the low departs to the east. increasing instability and
favorable fetch offer relatively high confidence to see northerly
gusts to 35 to 40 knot gales on lake huron friday afternoon and
friday night. a gale warning is in effect for all of lake huron.
will monitor the need to expand the warning into lake st. clair and
western lake erie, but confidence remains too low at this time.
gusty northwest wind backs to west-southwest by saturday as high
pressure builds into the ohio valley.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1211 am edt thu oct 15 2026

aviation...

high pressure tracks across the northern great lakes tonight,
causing winds to veer from northeast to east by daybreak. this will
draw the stratus plume over ontario into se michigan overnight,
reinforcing low vfr to mvfr restrictions for most of the taf period.
meanwhile, low pressure organizes over the plains before lifting
northeast toward se michigan thursday evening. the elevated warm
front will be responsible for lowering ceilings as moisture gets
trapped under a sinking inversion. lowest ceilings/vsbys are
expected at the end of the taf period as the low moves through,
which will also be associated with increasing coverage of rain
showers. a brief period of low level wind shear is possible as well
as a strong low level jet surges atop the stable near-surface layer.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms before 22z thursday, low
chance after 22z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high late tonight-thursday.

* low for thunder after 22z thursday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 1 pm friday to 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......tf
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.