Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
039
fxus61 kcle 101722
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
122 pm edt sun may 10 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather with below normal temperatures is expected
through tuesday. there is high confidence in widespread frost
on monday night.

2) a system will enter for tuesday night through thursday,
bringing the next chance of rain for the region. some storms
and moderate rainfall could be possible on tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a reinforcing cold front will make a dry passage during the
first half of the day before high pressure builds into the
region. this high pressure system will stay in place through
tuesday and promote dry weather, while keeping temperatures cool
for mid-may. clouds will remain across the region today and
tonight, and this will likely keep low temperatures more in the
upper 30 to lower 40s, limiting the frost threat for tonight.
however, clearing conditions will enter for monday, which should
allow for a clear, calm, and decoupling atmosphere and low
temperatures in the 30s are anticipated. there is high
confidence in a widespread frost on monday night and some
eastern areas may even have a freeze, if lower 30s can be
achieved. high temperatures on monday will generally be in the
50s. highs on tuesday will be in the upper 50s to 60s with high
pressure moving out and some return flow entering the region
ahead of the next low pressure system.

key message 2...
unsettled weather will return starting tuesday night, as a low
pressure system moves through the great lakes region, bringing
rain chances through thursday. some instability may build on the
warm side of the system on tuesday night and this could support
some initial thunderstorms through wednesday. however, the late
diurnal timing and waning instability should preclude any
organized severe weather threat. there could also be some
moderate rain on tuesday night into wednesday morning with the
thunderstorms and will need to watch for trends with that part
of the forecast for any future flood concern. rain will continue
through thursday as the system departs to the east and rainfall
should be lighter on the back end of the system. temperatures
for the middle of the week should be fairly seasonable in the
60s, perhaps a touch below normal, compared to the upper 60s for
mid-may.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with vfr to persist
through the taf period. bkn ceilings at or just below 5kft will
develop monday afternoon, though anticipate lower coverage
downwind of lake erie at cle/eri. winds are generally out of the
north to northwest this afternoon, 8 to 10 knots. winds will
become light and variable overnight, increasing out of the north
to northwest again monday afternoon, 8 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms late
tuesday through wednesday. non-vfr may linger



periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected tuesday afternoon through wednesday night. non-vfr may
linger across the eastern half of the area on thursday in low
ceilings and rain showers. non-vfr may return in scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms on friday.

&&

.marine...
a ridge affects lake erie as the embedded high pressure center moves
from the canadian prairies toward atlantic waters near the mid-
atlantic states through tuesday. primarily nw`erly to n`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots through monday should become variable in
direction monday night through tuesday. waves should trend 3 feet or
less.

the ridge should exit e`ward tuesday night through wednesday night
as a low wobbles ese`ward from the northwestern great lakes toward
lake ontario and weakens gradually. accordingly, a warm front should
sweep n`ward across lake erie tuesday night and cause se`erly winds
to veer to s`erly to sw`erly as winds freshen to around 15 to 25
knots. a cold front should then sweep e`ward across lake erie late
wednesday morning through wednesday night and cause winds to veer to
w`erly to nw`erly as wind speeds ease to around 10 to 20 knots.
waves should build to as large as 3 to 6 feet during the tuesday
night through wednesday night time frame. forecast trends may prompt
the eventual issuance of a small craft advisory.

behind the cold front, another high pressure ridge should build
from the western great lakes through thursday. on thursday,
w`erly to n`erly winds should ease further to around 5 to 15
knots. in response, waves should subside to 3 feet or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...frost advisory from 11 pm this evening to 8 am edt monday for
paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...kahn
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 101730
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
130 pm edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- frost most possible tuesday morning north of the toll road.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and
evening. the threat for severe weather is low.

- warm to end the work week, but rain will also be possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sun may 10 2026

dry and cooler air enters the area from the north as surface high
pressure noses southward. with 850 mb temperatures falling down
around 0c by 12z, the question of frost enters the mind. with an
upper low over in eastern canada, a shortwave rounds the base of its
trough through the great lakes tonight. this brings mid level cloud
cover that probably helps to keep the area warmer for a good amount
of tonight and calls into question the severity of the frost for the
area. at this point, it looks like the best chance for any frost
tonight is in outlying areas in our michigan counties: berrien to
hillsdale. will cover this with an sps for tonight. with the
low pressure system arriving tuesday, it is possible that cloud
cover and an increased pressure gradient affects frost chances
on monday night. the pressure gradient really increases between
6z and 12z so if the temperature can get to 38 or 39 degrees
early enough, maybe we can get some frost started before that
arrives early monday morning. otherwise, the best chance for
frost would be north of the toll road and probably closer to
i-69, away from the developing pressure gradient.

the aforementioned arrival of a low pressure system brings chances
for rain as early as tuesday morning. it is interesting to see dew
points in the upper 20s and 30s tuesday morning, but we rise to
widespread 40s by the early afternoon. it begs the question about
how much rain will be after to fall with the initial moistening of
the column. finally, the warm front pushes into our southwest and
the wet-biased nam has got 500 j/kg of mucape with it, whereas the
ecmwf is rather devoid of instability. this would seem to lessen the
chance for severe weather with its arrival. there is a moisture axis
that swings through with pwats around and just above 1inch as well
as sfc dew points approaching 60f and 850 mb dew points approaching
10c. if this materializes, there could be some locally heavy rain,
but the reduced convective element may take away some of the rain`s
oomph leaving it as more nuisance than anything.

we`ll be in the comma head of the low pressure system for wednesday,
but a bit of a lake shadow eats away at our better low level lapse
rates. still, towards the area of us-30 and i-69, it is possible
that we see some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts during the afternoon.
otherwise, expect dry weather from later wednesday through thursday
as surface high pressure pushes through.

for friday, a pacific trough comes in, but is slowly weakening in
what looks like an upper low. as it approaches the great lakes, it
deepens back into an upper low by saturday night with some rain
around later friday to friday night as a warm front pushes through.
a lot better instability gets into the area for saturday with dew
points reaching well into the 60s ahead of a cold front and we have
some shear to work with, which points to a potential severe weather
event. we could also see some 80 degree high temperatures on
saturday. subsidence follows for sunday behind the low allowing a
return to dry weather.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 130 pm edt sun may 10 2026

a cu field has developed across the area with daytime heating
this aftn and the presence of a weak frontal boundary. these
clouds will dissipate this evening before a cloud deck around 5k
ft associated with an upper level disturbance advects into the
area between 03 and 06z. these clouds will clear out of the
terminal sites after sunrise. nw winds of around 10 kts will
become light and variable tonight and increases to around 7 kts
mon morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mf

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
213 pm edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- frost advisory is in effect tonight from midnight to 7am.

- frost is likely again monday night.

- the next chance of rain arrives late tuesday into tuesday night.

- above normal temperatures possible next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

strong surface anticyclone and deep midlevel subsidence will build
out of manitoba southeastward into the great lakes region through
early tuesday. a very dry low level airmass, pwats at less than a
1/3rd of an inch, combined with deep midlevel subsidence will ensure
relatively quiet weather the remainder of today and monday.
southeast michigan will still reside within the main composite axis
of broad upper level troughing. this supports intervals and periods
of high cloudiness as individual shortwave maxima pivot and work
through the trough.

one such very low amplitude feature will work out of
northeast wisconsin through the saginaw bay region early this
evening. midlevel cooling between 6.0 and 12.0 kft agl may good
enough for a rouge high based shower but the potential impact or
coverage is too low to include. moisture progs in/around great lakes
is always a difficult endeavor, but model solutions (hires nam and
gem) suggest a variable coverage of thin high cloud for tonight.
with subzero 850mb temperatures, the forecast will call for lows in
the 30s for most areas outside of the urban heat island. despite a
gradient wind that may remain light and sustained out of the north
tonight, cannot discount microclimate cooling potential and will
issue a frost advisory tonight for areas north of i 94 including
washtenaw county. another cold, below normal night is anticipated
monday night with the center of high pressure building overhead.
more frost or freeze headlines may be needed.

model data continues to support categorical precipitation chances,
greater than 75%, late tuesday afternoon and tuesday night. a
notable aspect of the tuesday system are the low dewpoints (40s)
holding and likely wetbulbing at least through the 00-06z timeframe
wednesday. latest forecast soundings support higher static stability
holding in the lowest 3.0 kft agl with largely moist adiabatic lapse
rates between 900-500mb. the potential will exist for thunder, but
no strong or severe weather is anticipated. a more compact jet
streak structure and tight curvature of the upper level jet streaks
overhead tuesday suggests some moving parts yet on the timing and
duration of the best forcing. there is at least good support for a
period of stronger low level frontogenesis with the warm advection
surge. confidence is low on the expected qpf amounts.

pattern change then looks to happen friday and into the beginning of
next weekend as high amplitude ridge structure advances through
central north america. still some uncertainty with how progressive
the ridge becomes which may cause flow to become more zonal locally.
the current forecast suggests daytime highs climbing into the 70s.

&&

.marine...

high pressure continues to drift over the region through monday
maintaining lighter winds. next low is set to sweep across the great
lakes late tuesday bringing widespread showers and a few chances for
thunderstorms mainly over the southern great lakes. in advance of
the system, southerly winds strengthen though with ongoing warm
advection, thermal stability over the waters is expected to cap peak
gusts around 30kts. moderate nnw winds follow wednesday as cooler
air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing gradient
should keep winds under 30kts. high pressure briefly follows to
close out the work week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 125 pm edt sun may 10 2026

aviation...

diffuse high pressure to support dry weather while steep lapse rates
under cold air advection increases coverage of strato-cu this
afternoon. ceiling heights range between 7-9kft, with waning
coverage after sunset. there is some weaker model signal for
periodic mid-layer clouds through the overnight hours. otherwise,
light winds overnight as high pressure becomes better established.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 7 am edt monday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......kdk
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.