Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
589
fxus61 kcle 221801
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
201 pm edt tue sep 22 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) below average temperatures and periodic rain showers will
continue through wednesday.

2) dry and more seasonable weather will return by the end of the
week into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a large area of
cloud cover and occasional light rain showers and/or drizzle
extending from the midwest to the mid-atlantic coast, associated
with an elongated surface trough to the north of a stationary
front. initially, periodic light rain and/or drizzle is expected
today, generally east of the i-71 corridor further away from
the better forcing. however, this surface trough will gradually
move west across the ohio valley into wednesday as high pressure
begins building south across the eastern great lakes, resulting
in more widespread showers overnight into wednesday afternoon.
confidence is increasing for a few thunderstorms to accompany
this activity, especially near the i-71 corridor as the latest
guidance indicates a narrow swath of elevated instability > 500
j/kg. the weak forcing in place should limit rainfall amounts to
less than an inch, though localized higher amounts, especially
in thunderstorms, remain possible. rain chances will quickly
diminish wednesday evening and overnight as high pressure
continues to build south into the area.

periodic rain showers and cloud cover will contribute to below
average daytime temperatures in the 60s or perhaps even upper 50s at
times and lows in the 50s or upper 40s.

key message 2...
high pressure will build south across the great lakes by the
end of the week and persist through the weekend. initially, high
pressure and the departing chilly air mass could result in a
favorable scenario for some lows in the upper 30s to develop,
particularly across inland northwest pennsylvania, though 40s
should be more common elsewhere. the air mass will gradually
moderate through the weekend with high pressure in place.
temperatures will return to the upper 60s to low 70s by sunday
and perhaps even higher into the mid to upper 70s by early next
week.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
low ceilings continue to be the main taf challenge through
wednesday morning as a surface trough hangs back over the area.
most sites are solidly mvfr early this afternoon, and expect
more widespread periods of ifr to develop this afternoon and
evening as the next round of light rain and drizzle slowly
spreads nw across the region. the bulk of this precip and ifr
will be over southern areas (kmfd, kcak, and kyng), but ifr
could briefly impact other sites too, just too low of a
probability to put in those tafs. a mix of mvfr/ifr cigs and
pockets of mist is then expected tonight, with the greatest
potential to see reduced vis in mist at kmfd, kcak, and kyng.
this will eventually be overtaken by yet another wave of showers
that will gradually spread north wednesday morning, and this
will cause mvfr/ifr to linger into wednesday afternoon.

ne winds will continue to average 10-15 knots through
wednesday, with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots.


outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will continue across lake erie through
wednesday with persistent east to northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots
and gusts up to 30 knots, resulting in wave heights of 4 to 7 feet.
conditions will remain choppy on thursday, perhaps even briefly
reaching small craft criteria, as northeast flow only gradually
improves to 15 to 20 knots. winds will continue to gradually weaken
on friday through the weekend, though will remain out of the north
to northeast with the building high pressure to the north, 10 to 15
knots.

given the lingering surface trough draped across lake erie, can`t
rule out a low chance of waterspouts with any showers that develop
into this evening, particularly across the central and western
basins of the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through wednesday evening for ohz003-
007-009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez142>148.
small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...garuckas
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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557
fxus63 kiwx 221841
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
241 pm edt tue sep 22 2026

.key messages...

- extended stretch of seasonably cool conditions will persist through
the weekend before temperatures moderate for monday and
tuesday.

- some pockets of light rain and drizzle possible tonight. low chances
of rain (20-40%) mainly east of interstate 69 for wednesday,
but rainfall amounts are expected to remain light.

- dry thursday through this weekend.

- there is a moderate swim risk through this evening for northern
la porte county.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 240 pm edt tue sep 22 2026

a cool/cloudy pattern should persist through wednesday. a cut-off
upper level low across northern illinois has been responsible
for the bulk of scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm activity
this afternoon. it is possible as this mid/upper level wave
shifts east into this evening a few rain showers/sprinkles could
move into nw indiana. across the local area, model time/height
sections do indicate some weak forcing/lift in the 800-700 mb
layer likely due to some elevated warm advection forcing
downstream of the northern il short wave trough. moisture
profiles are relatively shallow in nature with indications in
cross section data that this better lift remains just offset
vertically above the shallow better low level rh. the result of
this lack of juxtaposition has made precip production somewhat
inefficient today with just some pockets of light drizzle at
times.

through time tonight the upper level short wave across il will
shift east with some weak phasing of another mid level height
minimum across nw ohio. this gradual phasing should support
continued respectable easterly flow and slightly deeper moisture
profiles being advected westward into ne in/nw ohio overnight
and especially into wednesday. given marginal moisture depths
lingering this evening into the overnight, some question as to
extent of any rain given overall weakly forced nature of this
synoptic setup and overall preference to weak synoptic scale
subsidence. however, could see just enough lift in slightly
deepening moisture profiles to promote some pockets of very
light rain or drizzle and will likely maintain the 15 pops.
diurnal ranges for temps should continue to be limited tonight
by lack of decoupling and the potential of low clouds lingering.
this should limit lows from dropping too much, holding in the
50 to 55 degree range.

have not made significant changes to the forecast for wednesday with
greater rain chances (20-40%) generally along and east of the
interstate 69 corridor. higher res guidance does suggest presence of
pocket of weak mucape around 500 j/kg working westward into ne in/nw
oh given the weak aforementioned phasing of mid level features. the
depth of instability could be just enough to realize the weak
elevated instability. still some uncertainty persists regarding
coverage as despite mid level trough in the vicinity this
appears to be otherwise a very weakly forced setup. by wednesday
evening, primary upper low should begin to sink southeast
allowing any linger showers across northeast in/northwest oh to
drop southeast of the area. any additional rainfall on wednesday
is not expected to significantly impact ongoing river flood
concerns across maumee/wabash basins.

the remainder of the work week into much of the weekend will feature
a rather stagnant, blocky pattern as large scale flow begins to
amplify. temperature advections in this pattern will remain weak
through sunday which will keep below normal temperatures going into
sunday. medium range guidance has indicated a pacific wave dampening
through the longwave ridge early next week with prospects for precip
looking minimal with this wave as moisture should still be on the
marginal side. temperatures should moderate toward the end of this
period as wave progression begins to increase and stronger southwest
flow develops.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 107 pm edt tue sep 22 2026

narrow area of drizzle is passing through kfwa as of this
writing. a lack of upstream radar returns and automated
stations indicate this dz will be shortlived. instead, scattered
showers are favored after sunrise wednesday.

at ksbn, cumulus clouds are developing to the ne while dense
stratus fills in from the east. satellite trends suggest vfr
ceilings in the near-term, declining overnight or perhaps
sooner. rain appears less likely at ksbn with weaker forcing
noted on the cross sections.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through late tonight for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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666
fxus63 kdtx 221939
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
339 pm edt tue sep 22 2026

.key messages...

- extended stretch of seasonably cool conditions will exist thru the
mid-week period.

- aside from a low chance of rain tonight and wednesday mainly south
of i-94, dry conditions are expected through next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

transition day in the upper levels as we go from split flow pattern
into an amplified blocking pattern with plains ridge in between
coastal troughs. in getting there, we`ll be presented with the only
chance for precipitation for about the next week, and even that
chance is only for the far southern locations mainly south of i94
tonight into wednesday. cause of this rain chance will be an upper
low now over northern il which will drift eastward in the weak flow
on the south side of the split flow pattern while phasing with an
elongated trough dropping out of the northern split and also reside
weak troughing currently over the east coast. models have been
consistently showing a narrow axis of low level convergence around
lake erie reaching into southern mi concurrent with mid level
deformation north of the low and with a plume of enhanced theta e
retrograding west around the north side of the low. saturated layer
in model sounding still up to around 10kft tonight but now extends
further to around 15kft during the day wednesday. moisture does
become more elevated with developing dry layer in the low level so
chances of rain extending into wednesday afternoon are low. high
chance pop low qpf event for southern mi tuesday night with less
than a tenth of liquid for those that see any rain.

heading into the weekend, the next longwave trough will come ashore
the pacific nw causing the plains ridge to amplify setting up the
blocking pattern across the conus. the expansive surface ridge to
the north keeps easterly flow through the weekend allowing for only
slowly moderating temperatures with the thermal trough holding over
the region. so highs in the 60s will carry through the weekend
before the ridge axis reaches lower mi allowing for southerly flow
to return boosting temps back into the low 70s. with good amount of
clear skies at night, favorable radiational cooling setup will allow
lows to drop into the 40s each night.

&&

.marine...

modest east-northeasterly gradient winds persists over the central
great lakes through wednesday as an expansive 30.50 inhg high
pressure system builds further east into quebec. this sustains
elevated on-shore waves for most of the waterways, therefore, a
small craft advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters
until wednesday night. the diurnal boost to gusts has been muted
compared to prior thinking as peak afternoon speeds remain below 30
knots. still monitoring a rex block that should emerge overhead by
wednesday with the closed low positioning over the northern portion
of the ohio valley. this alters the pressure and moisture fields,
intersecting a stalled/deteriorated elevated frontal boundary. this
may lead to some light showers over the far southern waterways (i.e.
western erie) by wednesday morning. wind speeds gradually start to
decline through the latter half of the week as the pattern unlocks,
and split flow returns aloft after the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. wave heights should recover accordingly, precluding the
need for any extensions to the ongoing small craft advisories.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1245 pm edt tue sep 22 2026

aviation...

moisture under a deep low level inversion led to some diurnal
expansion into a scattered to broken cu field this afternoon. low
level moisture will remain more plentiful across the metro detroit
terminals today. this suggests high probabilities for longer
duration of mvfr and/or ifr based clouds. farther north, recent
satellite trends indicate mixing of drier air into the low levels
have scoured out the lower clouds. high pressure anchored over the
northern great lakes today will sustain gusty east-northeast winds
through the afternoon, gusts over 20 knots at times. additional low
level moisture advection is forecast overnight into metro detroit.
this suggests additional mvfr based cloud development is possible.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.