Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 032329
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

.what has changed...
a complex of severe thunderstorms has developed across northwest
ohio and continues to push east. the primary hazard with these
storms is strong to damaging wind gusts to observed reports of
nearly 60 mph already recorded at toledo express airport. as
this line pushes east, it should gradually begin to weaken. in
addition, there are some isolated storms ahead of the main line,
although these have primarily remained sub-severe at this point.
there is widespread, consistent lightning associated with all
storms so please seek shelter and stay weather aware.

the heat headlines will be re-issued for saturday this evening
with a heat advisory for all ohio counties. there will be no
extension to northwest pennsylvania counties and those will be
allowed to expire tonight.

&&

.key messages...
1) dangerous heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot this weekend.

2) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later
today with better opportunities for rainfall this weekend into
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
heat and humidity last into the holiday weekend. we will need to
issue a new heat advisory for the july 4th holiday though
confidence in sites reaching the criteria is slightly lower
compared to previous days. however, given the increased
vulnerability with the prolonged nature of this heat wave and
expected number of large outdoor gatherings, felt that a heat
advisory will be justified despite maximum heat index values
largely in the upper 90s. drink plenty of water and avoid
caffeine and alcohol. be sure to take regular breaks in air-
conditioned locations! for people without effective cooling,
especially heat-sensitive groups, this level of heat can be
deadly. high temperatures will return to more seasonable values
in the mid to upper 80s sunday onward.

key message 2...
the upper level ridge will begin to breakdown as more zonal flow
takes over the weather pattern to begin the holiday weekend. shower
and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase this
afternoon/evening. hi-res guidance continues to hint at isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing later today. weak forcing
will likely lead to thunderstorms primarily initiating off of
lingering outflow boundaries. a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
remains in effect across the entire forecast area today given
the robust thermodynamic environment with mlcape values in
excess of 2500 j/kg and dcape of 1000+ j/kg. primary hazard will
be damaging wind gusts in a few strong to severe clusters of
thunderstorms.

showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on saturday,
particularly in the afternoon and evening. there may be a bit
more upper level support as a shortwave moves overhead that will
trigger showers and storms in the afternoon. more robust
forcing comes sunday and monday as an upper trough digs across
the eastern great lakes which will likely increase coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend and begin next
week.

given the very moist airmass in place with pwats of 1.5 to 2 inches
any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall both saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
the primary aviation concerns this evening and again on saturday
evening will be the expected convection. currently, a line of
convection extending from near sandusky, oh southwest towards
findlay, oh is producing diminish visibilities to 1-2sm and
strong winds with gusts up to 40 knots. ktol has already been
impacted with storms on the doorstep of kfdy. this line is
expected to continue to move east but should gradually weaken as
the area begins to stabilize. opted to handle all convection in
tempos for each terminal with the general timing between now and
05z. behind this line of convection, some patchy fog is possible
given the weak overnight flow but given low confidence opted to
not include a mention in the taf at this point.

for much of saturday, widespread vfr conditions are anticipated
with few/sct high cloud decks building in during the afternoon
hours. near the end of this taf period, another line of
convection is expected to move across the area, likely reducing
conditions to non-vfr again. confidence in the timing and
placement of this second round is low given model divergence, so
opted to handle that with vcts at this point.

winds outside of the convection overnight will be light and
variable. these will gradually increase from the west-southwest
on saturday afternoon to 8-12 knots with occasional gusts up to
15-20 knots. winds may gain a bit more of a northern component
for kcle and keri saturday afternoon which would be associated
with a weak lake breeze.

outlook...non-vfr possible in occasional showers and
thunderstorms saturday afternoon and evening. non-vfr possible
sunday evening into monday morning with showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.marine...
winds will be out of the southwest this afternoon at 5-15 knots
with waves generally 2 feet or less. conditions should continue
through saturday evening. there will be thunderstorms chances
through this weekend which could briefly increase winds and
waves within and around storms. weak low pressure and a cold
front will pass over lake erie late sunday night and shift winds
to be out of the east to northeast at 5-15 knots by monday
morning. waves could be choppy in the near shore with the
onshore flow, but should stay below 2 feet. high pressure begins
to build over the region late monday and winds and waves will
begin to subside into tuesday.

&&

.climate...
dangerous heat and humidity is expected again today. record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04/13
aviation...04
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
707 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

.key messages...

- a new heat advisory has been issued for areas mainly east of i-69
and south of us 24 through 8 pm edt saturday. peak heat indices
saturday afternoon are expected to be around 100 degrees.

- scattered storms, some severe, are most likely this evening with
damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and lightning as the main
threats.

- hot and humid for the 4th of july with 30-50% chances for showers
and storms. there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather. confidence is low but isolated severe storms will be
possible between 2-11 pm edt with damaging wind gusts, heavy rain,
and lightning as the main threats.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 141 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

high heat and humidity is expected to sustain scattered storms later
this evening. a growing cumulus field is evident on visible
satellite imagery with strong to severe storms seen on radar across
parts of southern wisconsin and northern illinois. how much the
storms maintain their strength is uncertain but the hot and humid
airmass overhead had led to an impressive 3000-4000 j/kg of sbcape
this afternoon already. latest iterations of the hrrr show a few
isolated storms may develop across southwest lower michigan and
northwest indiana between 21-00z this evening, with additional
storms building in between 03-06z mainly north of us-30 along
outflow boundaries leftover from the il/wi convection. spc has
maintained the slight risk (level 2 of 5) for our forecast area.
multicell storm clusters are expected to pose a damaging wind threat
this evening into tonight. forecast soundings depict inverted v
profiles with dcape above 1000 j/kg, which also indicates a
favorable environment for microbursts. other favorable parameters
include low level lapse rates in excess of 8 c/km and pwats around
1.5". in addition to the damaging wind threat, heavy rainfall and
lightning will be hazards as well.

as the upper level ridge continues to flatten,given a low shear
environment and potential for leftover outflow boundaries in the
area, have continued to maintain daily periodic chances for storms
through the holiday weekend. how the pattern evolves is dependent on
mesoscale and even some storm scale parameters, which makes
forecasting beyond just 6 to 12 hours ahead of time very tricky and
uncertain. while there is medium confidence on today`s setup,
everything beyond this evening is murky and low confidence in exact
timing and location of storms.

july 4th will not be a complete washout, however, there is still a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. saturday marks the
beginning of our slight cool down, with highs in the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. humid conditions stick around for the holiday though
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. a heat advisory has been
issued for our southeast half, including from cass county, in up to
whitley county, in up to williams county, oh until 8 pm edt saturday
where peak heat indices will be around 100 degrees. in addition to
the continued heat and humidity, this moderately unstable airmass
should aid in at least isolated thunderstorm development between 2-
11 pm edt saturday. this setup will be highly dependent on morning
convection, leftover cloud debris, and if/where there are any old
outflow boundaries in the area. it`s possible, depending on where
remnant outflow boundaries disperse, that storms end up mainly along
and south of us 30. with a similar environment to today,isolated
damaging wind gusts would be the main threat again saturday in
any strong to severe storms; even if storms stay sub-severe,
heavy rain and lightning will still be hazards. if you have any
outdoor plans for the 4th of july, stay safe and stay cool!

a trough ejecting out of the western us could bring additional
chances for showers and storms on sunday. the early to middle part
of next week looks mostly dry as a high pressure system sets up over
the midwest and great lakes. while it may be slightly `cooler` into
early next week with highs in the 80s, the long term pattern
continues to favor above normal temperatures through mid july.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 657 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

showers and thunderstorms are pushing ese of kfwa. dry
conditions are expected for the near term, but a line of
thunderstorms exiting eastern iowa are favored to drift in
after 06z. in the wake of that activity, another period of dry
weather before additional storms can develop in the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for inz009-
017-018-022>027-032>034.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt saturday for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for inz020.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt saturday for ohz001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 032224
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
624 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid conditions will persist through friday afternoon.

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast from late tonight
through friday night. there is a chance for strong to severe storms
through this period.

- locally heavy rain and minor flooding is possible late friday and
friday night due to thunderstorms.

- while temperatures will be less hot and more seasonable this
weekend, the chances for showers and thunderstorms, with an isolated
risk for strong to severe storms, will continue saturday and sunday.

&&

.aviation...

the linear cluster of severe storms will be exiting east of the
detroit metro area around/shortly after 00z. subsidence in the wake
of this convection combined with the loss in diurnal heating
suggests ongoing convection west of lake michigan may struggle to
enter southern michigan tonight. weak flow and residual boundary
layer moisture may support some areas of light fog toward daybreak
saturday. building daytime heating/instability saturday afternoon
will support a good chance for showers and thunderstorm development
as additional mid level short wave energy approaches the western
great lakes.

d21/dtw convection...the cluster of storms will exit east of the d21
airspace between 23z and 01z. the next chance for thunderstorm
development will be saturday afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunderstorms saturday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt fri jul 3 2026

discussion...

the ridge flattens out over the great lakes today as the center of
the surface high drifts towards the mid atlantic coast and a
canadian trough slides across ontario into quebec. this places
southeast michigan in zonal flow, but still under 500mb height to
590dam. the 850mb temperatures this afternoon have been tempered
slightly by the suppressed heights, but still reach to near 20c
supporting the continued heat. humidity levels remain elevated with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s, which still support heat indices
to around 100 degrees this afternoon under mostly clear skies. will
allow the heat headlines to run their course until the current
evening expiration.

the heat and humidity will also provide fuel for potential
thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening. repositioning of
the jet axis with the adjustment to the ridge puts southeast
michigan in a favorable spot for convective chances. weak waves
passing through this flow atop a baroclinic zone will provide focus
for convection. the environment this afternoon into early tonight
will be supportive with plenty of instability available. cape values
of 2000-2500 j/kg are forecast with mid level lapse rates around
6-6.5 c/km. the better 0 to 6 km shear (30+ kts) appears to be
displaced across i-69 and north. a convective line at press time
looks fairly organized as it approaches western michigan and
expectation is for the line of storms to continue eastward into the
area. will have to keep an eye on any convergence zone to drive any
earlier convection prior to the convective cluster/system upstream as
it continues into the area more likely towards 22-00z. one note is
that ai models have increased the probability for wind across the
southern half of the cwa with the 12z suite, which somewhat agrees
with what some of the latest cams solutions depict. a slight risk for
severe weather remains in effect along and south of i-96/i-696
corridor and points south with a marginal risk for the remainder of
the area. confidence has also increased enough for a severe
thunderstorm watch to now be in effect through this evening along and
south of the i-69 corridor. wind and hail will be the main threats.
some isolated flooding concerns also exists given the high pwats of
1.75-2.00 inches and the potential for repeating rounds of west to
east moving thunderstorms if convective activity can get generated
ahead of the approaching line.

slight relief from the heat and humidity to start the weekend with
heat indices forecast to fall below heat headline criteria, though
mid to upper 90s heat index values still possible across the urban
areas of metro detroit down to the southern mi border. greater
relief comes sunday and monday before a return to near 90 degree
temperatures toward mid-week with dewpoints in the 60s. convective
chances remain over the weekend as a low pressure system takes shape
over the upper midwest and slides across the central great lakes
sunday night. deep shear will be lacking with moderate lapse rates,
but enough instability will be available to support at least
isolated marginally severe thunderstorm potential.

marine...

main focus for today and tonight will be the ongoing development and
progression of a line of thunderstorms now located across lake
michigan. this thunderstorm complex is poised to enter southeast
michigan and portions of the southern great lakes through the evening
hours. locations most susceptible for thunderstorm development based
on current observations will be across lake erie and lake st. clair,
where a severe thunderstorm watch is in place. however, upscale
growth can have thunderstorm chances extending into the saginaw bay
and southern lake huron. strong to severe thunderstorm development
will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 50 knots. the issuance
of special marine warnings may be warranted tonight. otherwise
outside of thunderstorm development, ambient winds will light
tonight into tomorrow. a weak cold front does sweep through on
saturday which will pivot wind direction from the northeast, with
the frontal boundary stalling around southern michigan. additional
shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend
given the warm and humid airmass. some stronger storm development
will again be possible tomorrow, favored across the southern great
lakes.

hydrology...

clusters of thunderstorms have developed upstream this afternoon.
current forecast indications point towards locations along and south
of the i-69 corridor having the better potential for thunderstorms.
thunderstorms may have potential to develop ahead of an approaching
line of storms, resulting in some training and repeated
thunderstorms if they do develop. there is expected to be a wide
range in rainfall totals across the region. localized areas of one
inch or more of rain is possible in areas that see the persistent
thunderstorm activity. rainfall rates in these areas are likely to
reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. if these storms set up over urbanized
areas, localized flooding is possible. additional periods of showers
and thunderstorms are forecast saturday and sunday, which will add to
rainfall totals. higher amounts will again be localized.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz047>049-053>055.

extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for miz060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...aa
marine.......am
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.