Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
714
fxus61 kcle 151940
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
issued by national weather service buffalo ny
340 pm edt mon jun 15 2026

.what has changed...
only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a strong low pressure system will develop and move east through
the great lakes wednesday night into thursday. some severe storms
and gusty winds are possible.

2) a compact system will move east through the central great lakes
later tuesday into early wednesday, bringing showers and
thunderstorms into the area. a few storms may be strong in northwest
ohio.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1... a very anomalous low pressure system will move east
across the great lakes later wednesday into thursday. moisture will
increase as the low lifts a warm front across the area on wednesday
and showers and thunderstorms will expand east across the area as
the low`s associated cold front approaches from the west wednesday
night into early thursday.

at this point, the best instability/severe weather risk is to the
south/southwest of the area owed to more favorable diurnal timing,
but given the robust wind field (including a 60 to 70 knot llj),
significant instability will not be needed for organized convection
and strong to severe thunderstorms through the overnight. it
continues to be a bit early to get too far into the weeds given
uncertainty with mesoscale features/parameters, but there
certainly may be organized convection/strong to severe
thunderstorms wednesday night into early thursday morning. a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather remains unchanged
for locations generally along/west of i-77 for wednesday
night/early thursday morning with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
continuing east to roughly the ne oh/nw pa border. will also
need to keep an eye on potential for heavy rainfall and possibly
flooding, as pwats are expect to increase to around 2 inches
and there`s potential for some training if mean flow becomes a
bit more southwesterly. wpc now has much of ohio in a slight
risk for excessive rainfall, with a marginal risk confined to
far eastern and southeastern areas.

the wind field will be quite impressive for this time of year and
gusty non-thunderstorm winds are likely late wednesday night through
the daytime hours thursday. gusts to 30 to 40 mph are likely
areawide, although there will likely be a period of gusts as high as
45 mph during peak mixing thursday afternoon. will need to continue
to monitor forecast trends; a wind advisory can`t be ruled out at
some point for thursday.

key message 2... a relatively weak trough will move east across the
area later tuesday into early wednesday. there may be some scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of this feature beginning mid/late
tuesday afternoon across northwest ohio then spreading east through
the evening hours. the higher shower/storm chances will be in place
through the early overnight, with shower chances then tapering off
through the second half of tuesday night. there`s still uncertainty
in shower/thunderstorm coverage and intensity as instability wanes
as convection moves east into the area into the evening, but it`s
possible that a few storms along/west of the i-75 corridor could
produce damaging wind gusts and hail. overall, confidence in severe
weather potential is low at this point, but there remains a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather along and west of i-75. the
bulk of the better chances for stronger storms will likely be to the
west of the local area.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through friday/...
high pressure will provide widespread vfr conditions through the 18z
taf period with just mainly passing cirrus from time to time.

west to northwest winds will gust up to 15 knots or so through
around sunset, then will back southwest tonight with winds less than
10 knots. southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots later
tuesday morning with gusts 15-25 knots tuesday afternoon.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
forecast tuesday night through friday.

saturday...mainly vfr. mainly dry with a slight chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon.

&&

.marine...
periods of hazardous marine conditions are possible this week as
multiple frontal boundaries push east across the region. mainly
light chop will continue this afternoon as a surface high
continues to push east, allowing for northwest winds of 10-15
knots to gradually become southwesterly 10-15 knots this
evening. these conditions will persist into tuesday before winds
gradually increase to 15-20 knots as a warm front lift north
tuesday evening. these conditions are expected to persist
through much of wednesday, but given the offshore flow waves
should remain 1-3 feet across the nearshore zones through
wednesday. will have to monitor trends in winds for the
potential need of headlines, but at this point that potential
appears very marginal.

late wednesday evening into the overnight hours are when the most
hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact lake erie. a
deepening surface low centered over the region will bring south-
southwest winds of 20-30 knots across the entire basin, increasing
waves to over 6 feet, possibly touching 10 feet at times in the open
waters. these conditions should gradually improve throughout the day
on thursday, but it is highly advised to remain off of lake erie
late wednesday through much of thursday given the extremely
dangerous conditions to small crafts and the increasing likelihood
of strong rip currents. will continue to monitor trends in this
storm system to determine appropriate headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15/jm
aviation...jm
marine...04/jm

Fulton and Henry Counties

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541
fxus63 kiwx 151736
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
136 pm edt mon jun 15 2026

.key messages...

- dry and cool weather persists today and tonight.

- a marginal risk for severe weather exists for tuesday with
damaging winds and hail the main threats.

- an enhanced risk for severe weather exists for wednesday into
wednesday night. uncertainty still remains with regard to this
risk.

- there`s a trend back toward dry weather for later thursday
and friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1141 am edt mon jun 15 2026

quiet day today with shortwave ridging over the area. cooler
than normal temperatures with highs mainly in the low to mid
70s. normal high temperatures today are 81 degrees for fort
wayne and 79 degrees for south bend.

focus turns to the next couple of days with spc putting our area
in for a marginal risk tomorrow and slight to enhanced for
wednesday. tomorrow a weak shortwave pushes through beginning
around 10 am edt tomorrow morning increasing chances for
showers ahead of a cool front on the back end of this
disturbance when the better shear/lifting arrives in the
afternoon. forecast bulk shear values around 35 kts and lapse
rates around 7 to 8 deg/km. srh values around 100-200 will also
available. the one limiting factor with this system will be the
moisture with surface dew points starting out in the upper 40s
and increasing into the 50s by the afternoon. main threats from
this event looks to be strong gusty winds and hail but a few
tornado spin ups cannot be ruled out with the better than
minimal helicity values present.

with the first system moving out of the area by late tuesday a
warmer and more humid airmass begins to flow northward ahead of
the next trough and sets up a warm frontal boundary that pushes
northward across the area. this warm frontal boundary will
bring increased chances of showers in the morning and better
moisture into the area with dew points by wednesday afternoon in
the upper 50s to low 60s. scattered storms look to develop after
1-2 pm edt but will see an increase in activity as the cold
front associated with the main disturbance to our northwest
begins to push further into the area around 21-22z (4-5 pm edt).
this will help to increase the lift and shear potential with
our area in the warm sector and low level jet development.
lapse rates around 7 deg/km will be available and bulk shear
values around 30-50 kts. srh values will also be elevated with
around 400 m2/s2 potentially available. there are some caveats
with this system as with the exact warm frontal boundary
placement as well as the potential for earlier convection to
mitigate some of the convection later in the day. so will need
to watch this but again looks like all threats would be on the
table and this seems to be the better of the two events this
week.

in the wake of the second system we see ridging begin to push
into the region and this will bring a return to drier
conditions on thursday through early saturday with a
continuation of high temperatures in the 70s across the area
before a weak wave pushes into the area by saturday afternoon
increasing chances for some scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 126 pm edt mon jun 15 2026

vfr conditions will persist through tonight. surface high
pressure and dry air are in control of the weather today and
mid-level fair weather cumulus have developed across the area
this afternoon. light westerly winds today will back to the
southwest tonight and become breezy ahead of the next weather
system on tuesday. rain showers are expected to move tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 151928
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
328 pm edt mon jun 15 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms will be possible tuesday afternoon and
early evening. uncertainty exists on what the main threats will be,
but damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail to 1 inch, and an
isolated tornado may be possible.

- widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected wednesday evening
and wednesday night. heavy rainfall is possible which may lead to
localized flooding, especially in urban areas. some questions remain
where the highest impact severe weather will track.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected for the end of the
week and next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

upper level jet axis overhead of southeast michigan will bring an
active pattern to southeast michigan throughout much of the period.
current forecast models advertise a high volume/amount of shortwave
maxima that will come in proximity to, or outright eject through the
state during the next 7 days.

differential low level cold advection from last night has resulted
in residual static stability today in the 6.0 to 8.0 kft agl layer.
hires runs suggest a very weak embedded shortwave pushing through
late this afternoon. low 40 degree dewpoints will limit coverage but
just enough high based boundary layer growth to support a sprinkle
or virga across eastern metro detroit. temperatures will drop fairly
quickly this evening with the setting sun. lows are expected to be
in the lower 50s.

upper level jet impulse at 110 knots will dig into the basal portion
of deeper eastern north american troughing on tuesday. numerical
models are in good agreement that a vigorous shortwave will dig
across wisconsin driving a lobe of vorticity farther east through
southeast michigan. a good pop of midlevel cooling between 8.0 and
14.0 kft agl will lead to mlcapes of 500-1000 j/kg. interesting
solutions exist with regards to the most favorable timing for
thunderstorm activity. there could be two lines or areas of
convection, the first starting as early as 18-19z with prefrontal
warm advection with a second line developing between 21-02z along
the cold front. it is the trailing thunderstorm activity during the
early evening that may have the greatest potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms. 0-6km bulk shear values are forecasted to push
40-50 knots which will likely result in storm organization. will
need to monitor cell trends tomorrow with some limitation on
instability (< 1000 j/kg) but all severe threats (damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph, large hail to 1 inch, and an isolated tornado) may
be play. the latest swody2 has all of southeast michigan designated
as a marginal risk for severe weather.

dynamic upper level low pressure with deep flow inflection will
track rapidly through southeast michigan wednesday evening. a high
end signal exists for synoptic scale lift with strong meridional
moisture transport driven by +65 knot low level jet followed by
direct absolute vorticity advection. still some 60 hours out from
the event so will need to monitor hiresolution datasets as they
become available. very strong shear profiles with instability does
appear favorable for widespread severe weather. the one thing to
consider is a subset of solutions exist that suggests best organized
convection could favor areas to the immediate south and west of the
forecast area. lapse rate profiles and early forecasts of
frontogenesis with this system suggests heavy rainfall of 1 to 2
inches will be possible in a very short period despite what could be
very fast forward storm motions. the latest swody3 has portions of
far southern lower michigan in slight risk for severe weather.

a good setup for system relative isentropic ascent is anticipated in
the wake of the early thursday system. predominately dry weather is
a good likelihood with temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the
50s.

&&

.marine...

drier conditions persist today as high pressure migrates across the
tennessee valley, extending into the southern great lakes. this
causes flow to back southwesterly tonight into tuesday. the arrival
of a low pressure system and it`s attendant cold front lead to
showers and thunderstorms for the central waterways tuesday
afternoon/evening. latest models indicate convection should hold-off
until 1 pm or later, but timing the conclusion is less certain. a
brief break in activity ensues wednesday as shortwave ridging
quickly passes over the region, followed by a secondary stronger
system wednesday night into thursday. more intense convection is
possible with the second system, capable of damaging winds, and to a
lesser extent, waterspouts and large hail. seasonably strong
gradient (non-thunderstorm) winds will accompany the low with
prevailing speeds climbing above 25 knots as the center of the low
approaches lake huron late wednesday night. gusts to gales are
probable for some portion of the lakes wednesday night into
thursday, after shallow mixing profiles deepen slightly, and 40-50
knot flow materializes within the lowest 3 kft. winds decline a bit
and organize out of the west thursday evening through saturday,
accompanied by additional chances for showers.

&&

.hydrology...

extremely efficient moisture transport directed across a warm front
will provide for very strong lift across southeast michigan
wednesday evening and wednesday night. the potential exists for 1 to
2 inches of rainfall in 6 hours or less with this system. latest
ecmwf ensemble guidance suggests the tail of the distribution on the
high side is less than 2 inches. expect this rainfall will result in
rises on area rivers and may pose a flood risk to urban areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 141 pm edt mon jun 15 2026

aviation...

low level instability and moisture is enough to develop a widespread
cu field across the area this afternoon. gusty westerly flow will
relax this evening with the loss of daytime heating while backing to
more southwesterly ahead of the next disturbance. some mid and and
high cloud will stream in tonight ahead of the next disturbance but
all above 5kft. the southwesterly winds will become gusty tomorrow
in advance of the system. there could be a few isolated showers in
the afternoon but most or all of the convection will occur after
18z, thus the end of the taf.

d21/dtw convection...there is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms
developing tomorrow afternoon, with increased chances after 20z. any
thunderstorms that develops late would have the possibility of being
strong to severe.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through tonight. moderate
tuesday afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms before 20z tuesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......kgk
hydrology....cb
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.