Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1205 am est wed nov 26 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure will continue to push northeast into the great lakes
region through tonight. a strong cold front will move east across
the local area on wednesday with surface troughing lingering
through friday. high pressure briefly builds overhead on
saturday before another area of low pressure arrives on sunday
bringing more unsettled weather to the region early next week.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
the area will see a brief lull in precipitation as the initial push
of rain showers continues to exit to the east this evening. expect
for some lingering low level cloud cover and drizzle through tonight
as areawide forecast soundings remain saturated at low and mid
levels. by tonight, low pressure deepens over the great lakes
region while moving a strong cold front east across the area
through wednesday. rain showers return on wednesday as the front
pushes east across the region before transitioning to a
rain/snow mix wednesday afternoon and eventually all snow by
wednesday evening. primary hazard with areawide change over to
snow will be icy roadways as warm temperatures will rapidly fall
below freezing through the day on wednesday. overall
accumulations through wednesday evening will likely remain at an
inch or less. for clarity all mention of snowfall 00z thursday
onward will be discussed in the short term section below.

in addition to synoptic rain/snow across the area with the cold
front, westerly winds and gusts will increase on wednesday.
confidence has increased in wind gusts approaching or exceeding
advisory criteria which prompted the issuance of a wind advisory
areawide late wednesday morning through early thursday morning.
strongest winds and gusts are expected west of i-71 and along
the lakeshore. the wind advisory for lorain and points east
along the lakeshore will remain in effect through thursday
night. gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and make
driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

high temperatures on wednesday in the mid 40s to low 50s will
be achieved early wednesday ahead of the advancing cold front.
low temperatures drop into the upper 20s behind the front on
wednesday night.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
in terms of the synoptic picture, the surface low pressure system
will lift northeast away from the great lakes region into quebec on
thursday and will leave behind lingering surface troughing through
friday. the short term period will see continued impacts from the
aforementioned low pressure system including gusty winds and
accumulating lake effect snow.

lake effect snow:

snowfall will transition to lake effect snow wednesday evening into
thursday morning as 850mb temperatures fall into the -8 to -10c
range. mean layer flow will begin as primarily southwesterly to
westerly across lake erie which should keep lake effect snow
primarily offshore but may begin impacting extreme northern erie
county pa. flow will then turn more westerly to northwesterly by
early thursday morning as the upper trough axis pushes east which
will allow for lake effect snow to shift inland across the primary
snowbelt. biggest change to the forecast with this package was the
expansion of a winter storm watch to include cuyahoga county and
upgrading the winter storm watch to a lake effect snow warning for
erie county pa where confidence is highest. the timing of the
lake effect band shifting south is slightly earlier with this
forecast update with the heaviest snowfall likely occurring
thursday morning and early afternoon with the initial push
of the lake effect band. total snowfall accumulations are
expected to exceed 8 inches in the winter storm watch area with
upwards of a foot to 18 inches of snow possible across locations
in inland erie county pa. snowfall rates may exceed 1-2 inches
per hour at times in heaviest snow bands. these hazardous
conditions may impact busy thanksgiving holiday travel. please
stay tuned to the latest forecast and avoid travel if possible.
if you must travel make sure to have a winter weather kit in
your car.

gusty winds:

sustained winds 20-30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph will remain possible
along the lakeshore through the day on thursday. the aforementioned
wind advisory remains in effect along the lakeshore from lorain and
points east through late thursday night. some hi-res guidance is
beginning to hint at 50 knot gusts possible along the eastern
lakeshore thursday night so will need to monitor trends in case a
brief high wind warning may be needed. the gusty winds may lead to
blowing snow which would further impact holiday travel.

temperatures:

high temperatures in the low to mid 30s both thursday and friday
with overnight lows dropping into the low 20s thursday night and
teens on friday night. given the elevated wind speeds, minimum wind
chills will bottom out in the 10s friday morning.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
active weather will continue into the long term period. a brief
ridge of high pressure builds over the region on saturday which will
allow for remaining lake effect snow showers to diminish. low
pressure system will move through the region sunday into monday
bringing another round of rain and snow to the region. precipitation
should begin as all snow on sunday before transitioning to all rain
as the region is on the warm side of the low. a mix of rain/snow
returns on monday and tuesday as a cold front crosses the region.
high temperatures in the low 30s on saturday warm into the upper 30s
on sunday before falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s monday and
tuesday.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
for this taf update, was able to better fine tune the location
of the overnight drizzle and resultant ifr/lifr to ne ohio and
nw pa mainly affecting kcak, kyng, and keri. radar shows a band
of light returns persistently moving into these areas. it will
clip kmfd at times, so added a tempo there for some drizzle and
ifr. otherwise, mainly mvfr is expected overnight/early this
morning ahead of the cold front.

the aforementioned strong cold front remains the big focus for
today. the front will cross from west to east from mid morning
through midday. a band of showers along the front will become
more focused as it moves into north central and ne ohio, so have
a broad 3-4 hour window of vcsh at ktol and kfdy between 11 and
15z, with a more defined 2 hour period of prevailing showers at
kmfd, kcle, kcak, kyng, and keri later in the morning as the
front sweeps east. mainly mvfr will continue today with dry
conditions after the late morning/midday line of showers,
however, snow showers will start to move into kcle and keri in
the 20-22z time period and continue into mid evening, possibly
clipping kcak and kyng at times with some flurries. this will
not bring a big impact since the lake-effect snow that develops
early thursday will stay offshore of keri until after the taf
period.

strong cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient will
lead to very gusty winds today into tonight, and this remains
the biggest impact. wsw winds will increase to 15-25 knots early
this morning, increasing to 20-30 knots with gusts up to 40
knots by midday through the afternoon. the strongest winds will
occur in nw ohio affecting ktol and kfdy and near the lakeshore
affecting kcle and keri. winds will continue to gust over 30
knots at times tonight.

outlook...mvfr ceilings persist with scattered snow showers
thursday. lake effect snow continues across the snowbelt region
through friday, and could be heavy at times. elsewhere,
isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible through
thursday night. wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots will continue into
wednesday night, with wind gusts up to 40 knots near the lake
erie shoreline through thursday night. widespread rain and/or
snow expected saturday night into sunday.

&&

.marine...
southerly flow to 10-15 knots becomes southwesterly late tonight. a
deepening low pressure system moves into the northern great lakes
region, with a strong cold front quickly moving east across lake
erie wednesday morning. southwest winds will quickly strengthen to
gale-force on wednesday, gradually shifting to westerly wednesday
night and thursday and then northwest thursday night. wind speeds
will largely be 35-40 knots, with strongest winds approaching 45
knots with gusts to 50 knots wednesday night. waves as high as 8-12
feet may be possible especially east of the islands with higher
waves of 16 feet in the open waters. a gale warning for all of lake
erie wednesday morning through friday morning continues to account
for this. these conditions will also cause low water over the
western basin at times through this same time period. the critical
mark for safe navigation is 5 inches below the low water datum, and
latest model projections are likely to bring the water level at
toledo to several feet below low water datum, with the lowest water
levels expected wednesday night.

wind speeds gradually diminish below gale-force winds thursday night
into friday morning as winds become northwesterly. wind speeds
continue to gradually diminish with conditions improving to less
than 15 knots and 4 feet by saturday morning. southerly winds
develop on saturday, strengthening to around 20 knots saturday
night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
ohz003-006>009-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 1 am est friday for
ohz010>012-089.
winter storm watch from thursday morning through friday
evening for ohz011>014-089.
pa...wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
paz002-003.
wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 1 am est friday for
paz001.
lake effect snow warning from 1 am thursday to 1 am est
saturday for paz001-002.
winter storm watch from late wednesday night through friday
evening for paz003.
marine...gale warning from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est friday for
lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est friday for
lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning from 10 am wednesday to 10 am est friday for
lez145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
627 pm est tue nov 25 2025

.key messages...

- strong westerly winds will gust 40-50 mph on wednesday. remaining
breezy and chilly on thanksgiving with gusts to 35 mph.

- lake effect snow showers are likely wednesday afternoon
through thursday night, mainly along and north of the indiana
toll road. reduced visibilities and snow accumulations will
create difficult travel in spots.

- a period of accumulating wet snow is possible late saturday
into saturday night, best chances (70%) north of us 24.
impacts to post-thanksgiving travel possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm est tue nov 25 2025

surface low pressure deepens east-northeast through the northern
great lakes tonight into thursday in response to a robust negatively
tilted upper level wave digging through. this will send a strong
cold front east through the local area later tonight into early
wednesday (07-12z), accompanied by a narrow line of gusty rain
showers and rapidly falling temperatures. pressure rises and intense
post-frontal caa will allow winds to pick up immediately in the
morning, with a tight low level height gradient keeping westerly
winds up through the day on wednesday. momentum transfer progs in
model forecast soundings suggest persistent gusts in the 40-50 mph
range on wednesday. href probs for 45 mph or greater or still around
30%, but did opt for a cwa-wide wind advisory per collaboration.
this gradient does relax into thanksgiving, though it will be chilly
and still breezy (gusts 30-35 mph).

the lake effect snow machine will also get going in cold westerly
flow wednesday afternoon through at least thursday night, mainly
impacting areas along and north of the indiana toll road. lake-850
mb temps near 20c with a decent signal for omega and saturation wrt
ice to align in lower portions of the dgz. however, westerly flow
will be strong, likely limiting parcel residence time and
organization for a higher end les event in favored wnw flow snow
belts. there likely will be enough snow for reduced visby`s and
impacts to travel however, particularly in southwest michigan
where a winter weather advisory was issued.

attention over the weekend will then turn to the next upper level
trough to dig out into the central plains on saturday, then making
the turn east-northeast into the great lakes by sunday. a broad area
of strong theta-e advection and isentropic lift will develop within
the a leading low level jet. this along with incoming mid level dcva
and upper diffluence allows an expansive area of precipitation to
blossom in advance of the system sfc trough and developing weak sfc
low. ptype looks to begin as wet snow for most at some point
saturday into saturday evening before mixing with or changing to
rain/drizzle sunday morning as waa eventually overwhelms the column.
ensemble probs from the lref and nbm are for approximately 70% of
the members dropping 3" or more of snow (10:1 ratio) in nw in and sw
mi, which drops to near 20% in our far southeast (lima area).
definitely a system to keep an eye on given the potential for post-
thanksgiving travel impacts.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 626 pm est tue nov 25 2025

we remain in the warm sector of the low pressure system passing by
to our north and west and this will keep the low level moisture in
the area until the cold front can upend it to some extent. rap time
sections indicate some moderation in cigs occurs between 6 and 8z as
the front moves through and more like between 7 and 10z at fwa. will
still maintain at least upper mvfr so we don`t fully go to vfr
during this period. despite these low clouds, we`ll also have a wind
advisory to contend with as 40 kt westerly winds gusts will be
possible through the day wednesday. look for snow to work into sbn
around 18z wed at sbn and there could be some vis reductions with
that, but don`t have enough confidence to add that in at this
time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 7 am est /6 am cst/ to 7 pm est /6 pm cst/
wednesday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est wednesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est wednesday for miz078>081-
177-277.
winter weather advisory from 10 am wednesday to 7 am est
friday for miz078-079-177-277.
marine...gale warning from 4 am wednesday to 1 am est friday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1213 am est wed nov 26 2025

.key messages...

- a wind advisory is in effect from 10am wednesday to 4am thursday.

- sustained southwest turning west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts
40 to 45 mph expected.

- lake effect snow showers ramp up wednesday evening through
thanksgiving day and will linger into thursday night. snowfall
accumulation totals will be highly variable across se mi, ranging
from a half inch, up to 3 inches.

- wind chills drop into the teens thursday morning and only increase
into the 20s by thursday afternoon.

&&

.aviation...

another round of low-level moisture is trying to lift into the
southern terminals bringing about renewed ifr conditions while
ptk/fnt/mbs have largely remained socked-in. low predictability
exists regarding duration of lingering mvfr ceilings at previously
improved sites. a strong cold front remains poised to reach the
terminals early wednesday morning. models depict moisture pooling
along the frontal slope, supporting renewed shower/drizzle activity,
and some reinforcement to pre-frontal lowered ceilings. once the
front clears east, ceilings could briefly clear within the dry slot,
then broadly lift to mvfr, along with a much stronger wsw wind
field. post-frontal gusts climb well into the 30 knot range during
the daylight hours wednesday. peak gusts could approach 40 knots as
they orient westerly. note that upstream nocturnal post-frontal obs
have measured even higher values. furthermore, the large-scale
environment will be favorable for streamers of lake-effect snow
showers off lake michigan. tempos for these snow showers, with the
possibility for ifr reductions in visibility, are noted for all
sites. this lake effect activity will likely continue to some degree
wednesday night.

for dtw...ceilings settle back to ifr for most of the remaining
overnight hours. a cold front moves across the airfield around 12z
wednesday with additional preceding shower activity and visibility
reductions possible. strong post-frontal wind response is expected,
and peak gusts could approach 40 knots. scattered lake effect snow
showers fill in by the afternoon, continuing in periodic fashion
through the end of the taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet through wednesday night.

* moderate for precipitation type as snow wednesday afternoon then
high wednesday night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 321 pm est tue nov 25 2025

discussion...

for the remainder of the evening... widespread stratus with periodic
pockets of drizzle/mist will persist noting rh aoa 95% through
700mb. moisture depths truncate into the overnight period but 0-1km
rh will continue to support overcast skies, periodic drizzle, and
patchy fog. copious cloud cover will help mute and diurnal
temperature response overnight, holding overnight lows in the mid 40s
overnight. attention will then quickly turn to the next low pressure
system, progged to travel over and strengthen across the northern
great lakes tomorrow morning and afternoon, which will bring windy
conditions, accumulating snowfall potential/holiday travel impacts,
and wind chills in the teens, centered tomorrow afternoon through
early friday morning.

water vapor imagery highlights the strong upper-level wave now
leaving the dakotas and the subsequent low pressure system just
downstream of the wave. both features will path through the midwest
and will arrive over the great lakes by tomorrow morning, with the
center of the low moving across the straights. as the shortwave digs
into the midwest, the developing trough will deepens and take on a
negative tilt and will initially push a strong cold front across se
mi from roughly 11z-15z. this will maintain a line of broken showers
that will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 40 mph through
the mid to late morning hours.

within the wake of the front, a dry slot will move in, bringing a
brief period of dry conditions. cold air advection will also boost
mixing depths while a strong 50 knots wind field builds in over the
greater portion of southern michigan, all while broader subsidence
increases. this will bring for efficient downward momentum transfer,
producing wind gusts on the order of 40 to 45 mph through the day,
initially across the northern ohio valley and southern michigan by
the late morning hours, and expanding northward through the remainder
of the cwa into the afternoon and evening hours as the
aforementioned low strengthens and then occludes. a wind advisory is
now in effect for all of se mi from 10am tomorrow until 4am thursday.

wrap around moisture from the departing low and strong moisture flux
off of lake michigan will then assist in the development and
advection of lake effect snow showers starting in the late afternoon
hours. despite temperatures in the mid-30s with the onset of any
precipitation, this synoptic setup characterized by strong cyclonic
flow and under the greater trough with stronger pva tends to
increase fall velocity and reduce residence time, easily overcoming
the shallow above freezing temperatures. as temperatures drop to and
below freezing late tomorrow night into thursday morning, this
ensures all snow as the p-type. snowfall totals will be highly
variable pending where and snow banding or repeated snow showers set
up, ranging between a half inch up to 3 inches. two locations of
interest for these higher end amounts will be around i-696 down to
or south of i-94, aligned where better convergence and potential
instability resides. a secondary area of interest will be portions
of the northern tri-cities into the thumb, where banding or
convectively enhanced snow showers could clip, mostly derived from
the northern lake michigan basin. even for locations that experience
lower-end snow amounts, residual moisture on untreated roadways has
the potential to freeze as temperatures drop below freezing thursday
morning. last, cold temperatures and windy conditions drop wind
chills in the teens thursday morning.

thursday afternoon and evening again brings continued snow chances,
and while convergent signals are not as robust, latest model output
suggests along or south of i-94 as a potential spot for renewed
accumulation up to an inch, along with the northern thumb.
regardless, 0-3 km lapse rates will be strong across the cwa during
daylight hours, bringing the chance for snow shower potential through
the day. windy conditions continue thursday with gusts around 40
mph, bringing wind chills in the 20s by the day and back down into
the teens into friday morning. subsidence increases through the day
friday, ending lake effect snow chances.

active conditions look to continue into the weekend as low pressure
develops and moves into the great lakes late saturday into sunday
morning. ensembles show moderate to strong convergence regarding the
track of the low, but uncertainties still exist surrounding the
degree of warm advection and forcing, which have implications on p-
type/snow amounts/snow ratios. regardless, accumulating snow
potential across the great lakes region is looking increasingly
likely to end the holiday weekend.

marine...

strong low pressure brings deteriorating marine conditions across
the great lakes tonight into the late week period. the center of the
system will track across the straits near peak strength wednesday
evening before continuing into ontario/quebec and pulling an arctic
air mass into the region. a strong cold front will sweep across the
region early wednesday with long duration of gales expected
wednesday through thursday and into early friday for some areas.
gale warnings are in effect for all marine zones through the period,
and low water advisories are in effect for western lake erie and
inner saginaw bay during the peak of the event wednesday into
wednesday night.

the strongest gusts are expected across saginaw bay and
central/southern lake huron wednesday afternoon through thursday,
peaking between 40 and 45 kt. the gales will be from the sw behind
the wednesday cold front, then gradually veer to w early thursday
and nw thursday evening. there is high confidence for gales during
this period and low probability for gusts to storm force.

for lake st. clair and western lake erie, sw gales are expected in
the wake of the front by midday wednesday, reaching a peak near 40
kt through the evening and overnight. wind direction gradually veers
to w on thursday while gales slowly subside.

for northern lake huron, gales will be relatively slower to start as
a weaker gradient exists with the center of the low passing in the
vicinity. however, nw wind will quickly ramp up wednesday evening as
the low departs and nw gales of 35 to 40 kt are expected there
through the day thursday.

rain showers will change over to snow showers wednesday evening and
snow squalls are likely through thursday into thursday night. gales
gradually subside on friday but wind remains gusty out of the
northwest with additional snow showers. winds weaken further on
saturday as narrow high pressure works in ahead of the next system
set to track through on sunday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 am est thursday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning from noon today to 7 am est friday for lhz361-362.

gale warning from 7 am this morning to 10 am est friday for lhz363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

low water advisory from 7 am this morning to midnight est tonight
for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning from 7 am this morning to 4 am est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 7 am this morning to 4 am est friday for lez444.

low water advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 am est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...am
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.