Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
911
fxus61 kcle 190813
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
413 am edt fri jun 19 2026

.what has changed...
slowed down rain timing slightly for sunday. trended
temperatures down for monday.

&&

.key messages...

1) an isolated shower or two is possible this afternoon with
scattered showers and thunderstorms saturday afternoon.

2) a widespread rain event of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for sunday
night into monday resulting in rises on rivers. there is potential
for a couple rivers to experience minor flooding.

3) temperatures will remain slightly below normal for much of
the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

while a broad trough aloft is already in place from the northern
plains to the ohio valley to new england, another shortwave trough
will slide southeast across lake erie this afternoon. the
airmass is generally dry, but steep low level lapse rates and
lift associated with the shortwave may be sufficient for a
stray shower or two to develop in northeast ohio or northwest pa
this afternoon. not expecting thunderstorms except perhaps
towards erie pa where temperatures are cooler aloft.

a ridge of surface high pressure builds east across the area on
friday night followed by another more compact shortwave trough
moving through the northwest flow aloft on saturday. a few showers
could move into northwest portions of the forecast area as early as
saturday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms expanding
by midday across central portions of the area and moving southeast.
while the coverage is generally expected to be scattered, a couple
counties towards portage, trumbull, mahoning may see greater
coverage of showers. trended pops up another 10 percent in the
east.

key message 2...

the upper level trough axis shifts east of the area on sunday.
meanwhile a fast moving shortwave crosses the rocky mountain range
with low pressure developing over the plains and racing eastward.
the low is forecast to track across central or northern ohio and may
or may not merge with a closed upper level low aloft rotating
into the upper great lakes. regarding the low track, the 00z/19
gfs is a little too far south when compared to the gfs ensemble.
prefer a more middle of the road approach like the 00z/19 ecmwf
which does show some phasing with the northern stream by
monday. slowed down the timing of rain, especially along and
east of i-71 on sunday afternoon with most areas not seeing a
steady rain until sunday night. the track of the low will
influence who gets the heaviest rain and higher potential for
thunderstorms. modest instability does look to extend north into
the area on sunday night with strong sheer. current forecast
suggests rainfall of 1-2 inches across the local area but the
gradients may be more sharp with training possible along the
warm front. rises on area rivers can be expected and the
potential exists for a few to experience minor flooding. locally
heavy rainfall may also be possible if robust convection occurs
and trains over the same area. we will need to monitor the
forecast position of heavier rainfall. the western half of the
area has been included in a slight risk for excessive rainfall
(level 2 of 5).

key message 3...

temperatures through the week tend to remain on the cool side of
normal. high temperatures will tend to reside in the 70s as we
alternate between a northwest flow and zonal flow aloft.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
vfr will prevail through the taf cycle as high pressure slides
from the corn belt this morning into the ohio valley by this
evening. a few diurnally driven showers will develop beneath the
cold air alot this afternoon over ne ohio and nw pa, but these
will be so widely scattered that they may not impact a terminal,
so kept it vcsh at kcak, kyng, and keri.

wnw winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will increase to
10-15 knots by late this morning, with gusts of 20-25 knots
this afternoon before decreasing after 00z this evening.

outlook...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible saturday afternoon/early evening. non-vfr would be
limited to just the strongest showers/storms. additional
showers and storms are possible sunday afternoon through tuesday
morning with the potential for more non-vfr coverage.

&&

.marine...
winds and waves will further decrease early this morning, so
allowed all headlines to expire at 06z. w winds of 5-10 knots
early this morning will increase again to 10-20 knots late this
morning through the afternoon, and this will build wave heights
to 3 to 3.5 feet in the central and eastern basins, but expect
conditions to stay just below small craft criteria.
nevertheless, it will be a bit choppy again on lake erie this
afternoon. w to wnw winds will then average 5 to 15 knots
tonight and saturday before turning nw at 5-10 knots saturday
night.

the next period of impactful winds will come late sunday and
monday as another unseasonably strong low pressure system
tracks through the southern great lakes. e winds will increase
to 15-25 knots late sunday and sunday night ahead of the warm
front, turning nne behind the cold front monday, so small craft
advisories are likely with this system. lighter winds are
expected monday night and tuesday as high pressure builds across
the area.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
714
fxus63 kiwx 191025
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
625 am edt fri jun 19 2026

.key messages...

- there is a moderate swim risk for northern berrien county
beaches today. breaking waves of 2-3 ft and currents are
expected.

- light rain is possible late tonight into early saturday.

- widespread, moderate to heavy rain is expected late sunday
with some embedded thunderstorms possible. total rainfall
amounts of 1-3" are expected.

- cool weather persists through the next seven days with highs
in the 70s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt fri jun 19 2026

another quiet day today with some shortwave ridging/subsidence and
cool wnw flow over the area. after a cool start this morning, highs
will be similar to yesterday, though perhaps a degree or two warmer
given some airmass modification under peak june sun. next shortwave
arrives tonight in nw flow aloft. this wave will be increasingly
sheared as it passes our area and resident airmass is quite dry and
stable. still, could be just enough forcing and available moisture
to squeeze out some light rain showers late tonight into early sat,
especially for our n/nw zones where better midlevel cva will reside.
held off on any thunder mention and any rain will be very light. any
residual clouds and showers should clear out by midday sat and
expect a very pleasant sat afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 70s.

a much stronger wave ejects out of the central plains on sunday with
some right entrance upper jet support yielding modest surface
cyclogenesis. far better moisture return noted here with a 40+ kt
llj developing. widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is
likely late in the day. unfortunately there is still some spread
regarding exact surface low track. slim majority of ensemble
guidance keeps surface low (and associated instability) just south
of our cwa. however, there are plenty of notable exceptions (nam and
ecmwf) and a track right through our cwa remains possible. if this
were to occur, we will have to keep an eye on areas along/south of
us-24 for possible severe weather. midlevel lapse rates and surface
temps/dewpoints aren`t great but wind/shear profiles are obviously
supportive and could yield organized convection if the instability
makes it this far north. regardless of exact track/severe weather
concerns, a large swath of 1-2" of rain is expected with pockets of
3" possible in our southern zones. will have to watch for possible
hydro concerns as well.

quiet weather returns for mon/tue as midlevel ridging/surface high
build across the great lakes. more light rain is possible mid-late
week as several perturbations glide through the region in northwest
flow. this will maintain below normal temps and periodic shower
chances.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 625 am edt fri jun 19 2026

high pressure and low level dry air will ensure vfr conditions
today. a weakening shortwave could bring a few showers and
4-5kft ceilings at ksbn tonight but no thunder is expected. wnw
winds may gust up to 20 kts this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
563
fxus63 kdtx 191052
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 am edt fri jun 19 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry today with a few isolated showers possible over the
thumb this afternoon.

- scattered showers are possible saturday morning, and then again
saturday afternoon.

- broader coverage of showers and thunderstorms possible sunday
evening and overnight, especially south of i-94.

- cooler than normal temperatures are expected through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

se mi remains in the zone between mid ms valley high pressure and a
low pressure system in quebec. moderate westerly flow of mild air
continues over the region in the pressure gradient between these
systems today. this results in a transition from pockets of mid/high
clouds this morning to a vfr cumulus field this afternoon with
greater coverage toward fnt and mbs. westerly wind gusts also
increase to near 25 knots with building daytime instability that
could lead to a stray shower east of the terminal corridor toward
lake huron.

conditions stabilize routinely this evening as high pressure moves
into the ohio valley and as the next low pressure system reaches the
upper midwest. this system produces scattered showers that move into
se mi with pockets of mvfr ceiling toward sunrise saturday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast for today or
tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5 kft this afternoon. moderate toward
sunrise saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am edt fri jun 19 2026

discussion...

the 990 mb surface low pressure system that produced active weather
wednesday into early thursday will continue tracking eastward along
the st. lawrence river today, exiting into the canadian maritimes.
given its meridionally expansive cyclonic field, dynamic ascent will
still be present over portions of southeast michigan. forecast
soundings indicate perhaps just enough mid-level cooling within the
northwest flow regime to support weak sbcape, on the order of 100-
250 j/kg. this instability increases, just as mid-level geopotential
heights reverse and begin to rise with the arrival of shortwave
ridging. this should act to inhibit ascent, but chose to include
mentions of isolated thunderless light showers across the greater
thumb region from 18-22z. it`s also possible that the dry column
will favor virga with any showers that do materialize. hydrometeors
face a difficult path for survival, falling through a nearly 5 kft
inverted-v shaped boundary-layer, so no qpf was added. guidance
continues to run a bit warm, relative to expected highs, given 850
mb temperatures around 8c. however, unimpeded insolation due to near
zero cloud fraction should offer a diabatic boost. highs in the low
70s ought to be the norm, with mid 70s possible from metro detroit
south. surface ridging briefly builds in early tonight, backing
winds toward the wsw.

low amplitude cyclonic shortwave perturbation embedded within the
longwave pattern transits lower michigan early saturday morning,
along with a faint surface reflection. residual pacific moisture
should suffice in the maintenance of remnant nocturnal convection,
but this activity moves into a less favorable airmass. much of the
zonally advected theta-e will go towards top-down saturation of a
column characterized by an initial pwat of around 0.60 inches. while
a morning lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, forecast
soundings are not supportive of meaningful shear or instability. the
morning activity does improve antecedent conditions for diurnal
convection saturday afternoon. showers and perhaps a few
thundershowers are once again favored over the northeastern part of
the forecast area (generally north of i-69), better positioned
within the thermal trough aloft. similarly cool and dry saturday
night with enough clearing and lows in the 50s.

diffuse high pressure emerges over the lower peninsula sunday
morning while a speed max ejects across the plains and into the ohio
valley, likely sustaining an mcs. the time-frame for arrival is
generally still out of the hi-res window, but mid-range 00z
deterministics largely agree in the shape and speed of this wave
across the ohio valley. main question now is how far north does the
wave track, and by extension, how far into southern lower does any
isentropic/overrunning precipitation reach. the surface warm front
will struggle to lift beyond the state-line, and low-level moisture
transport will be fighting drier air filtering down from northern
manitoba high pressure. latest pops appear a bit bullish at this
juncture, particularly the likelies north of i-94. further south,
the environment will be more favorable for higher rainfall amounts.

cooler than normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
middle of next week with drier conditions by tuesday, followed by a
showery day wednesday.

marine...

west to northwest flow will hold today in the wake of a strong low
pressure system which will support some breezy conditions for
portions of the great lakes, particularly across northern lake huron
given the more favorable fetch. a ridge of high pressure will build
in tonight through tomorrow morning which will relax wind speeds and
support lighter winds through the weekend. rain showers will be
possible tomorrow as an upper-level disturbance moves in, along with
a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm. additional chances for
rain and thunderstorms will enter sunday night to monday morning as
a low pressure system travels through the ohio valley and southern
great lakes. this system will bring elevated wind gusts through lake
erie and lake st. clair, where the pressure gradient is strongest.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.