Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
470
fxus61 kcle 201155
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
655 am est fri feb 20 2026

.what has changed...
the severe weather risk has diminished across the area and
generally expect widespread rain early this morning. winds
along the lakeshore of ne oh and nw pa have trended a bit higher
for this morning and afternoon so have expanded the wind
advisory through northern erie county, pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) gusty winds are expected behind a cold front today.

2) more seasonable temperatures and potential for accumulating snow
return to the area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
widespread morning rain will lift northeast out of the area
early this morning as a cold front begins to move east into the
local area. the tightened pressure gradient and southerly flow
in the warm sector will result in potentially gusty winds due to
downsloping along the lakeshore of nw pa and there could be
periodic gusts to 35 to 45 mph early this morning. winds will
increase behind the front and expect peak southwest wind gusts
of 40 to 50 mph along/west of i-71 and along the lakeshore as
the best forcing moves across the area this afternoon into early
this evening. a wind advisory remains in place for this area of
concern from 7 am to 7 pm today and have expanded the advisory
east along the remainder of the lakeshore to include northern
ashtabula and erie counties. opted to start the advisory at
09z/4 am in northern erie county pa to account for the potential
for stronger winds due to downsloping ahead of the cold front.
confidence in the early morning wind gusts for nw pa is a little
bit lower than this afternoon, but probabilistic href data and
several high res models support the expansion in the wind
advisory. the main limiting factor could be stratiform rainfall
preventing mixing, although relatively dry lower levels due to
downsloping could allow mixing to be a bit more efficient. winds
may remain elevated in the 30 to 40 mph range primarily along
the lakeshore of ne oh/nw pa through midnight, but largely
expect winds to diminish tonight.

key message 2...
temperatures will follow a non-diurnal trend today with temps
decreasing behind the cold front during the day today. light
lake effect rain showers are likely across nw pa and possibly ne
oh late this afternoon before transitioning to light snow
showers through much of saturday as temperatures decrease this
evening and upper troughing lingers over the lower great lakes.
there may be a very brief period of light freezing rain across
the higher terrain of nw pa, but impacts are not anticipated.

the better shot of cold air will arrive as a developing low
pressure system moves east across the great lakes on sunday.
temperatures are expected to return to near normal values with
widespread snow likely across the majority of the area sunday.
snow accumulations will vary across the area with the highest
totals anticipated across the eastern half of the area. there`s
still some uncertainty in the qpf and resulting snowfall totals
due to relatively low confidence in the placement of a
developing coastal low, but there could be impacts due to
slippery roadways and reduced visibilities. strong cold air
advection/northwest flow behind this system will likely result
in lake effect snow showers through at least monday. the highest
probability of more impactful accumulations will be across the
typical snowbelt areas of ne oh and nw pa, but will need to keep
an eye on the entire cwa since most deterministic guidance
suggests lake effect snow from the upstream great lakes
occurring across most of the area.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
rain has largely dissipated across the area or departed to the
east and the daytime hours should remain dry today for the
terminals. low ceilings and some patchy fog remains in the wake
of the rain this morning with ceilings largely below 1000 ft. a
patch of clearing is entering from the west this morning and may
help some of the low ceilings exit over the next few hours.
while the ifr and lifr may get wiped out, it will be short lived
before a cold front enters with mvfr ceilings and gusty
southwest winds with gusts to 40 kts that will enter during the
late morning and early afternoon. mvfr ceilings should largely
persist through the rest of the taf period with this front. the
winds will diminish by evening as the main low pressure system
weakens to the north. with the cold front, temperatures will
crash, which will allow for the lake effect snow machine to fire
up across the region, reinforcing the lower ceilings and
allowing for some snow chances tonight. the southwesterly flow
suggests that only keri would be in play for any snow impacts
but not impossible to see a flake at kcle or kyng for a moment
tonight.

outlook...non-vfr conditions continue into the weekend with low
ceilings on saturday and snow returning sunday and monday.

&&

.marine...
an occluded low pressure system over lake michigan will slowly
move east today, extending a cold front across the lake this
afternoon. southwest winds will accelerate on the lake to 25 to
30 kts with the frontal passage and a 45 kt low level jet
moving overhead. with temperatures trying to get into the 40s
and the strong southwest winds, ice will continue to weaken
across the lake and the ice fields will shift today. any ice
floes will be hazardous to folks on lake erie and may block or
close established shipping channels. people are urged to stay
off lake erie today.

the low pressure system will devolve into a trough over the
region on saturday and southwest flow will fall to around 10 to
15 kts. a strong low pressure system will move up the east coast
on sunday into monday and enhance the pressure gradient of the
trough, allowing for 15 to 20 kts of northwest flow on sunday
and monday. a surface ridge will enter for tuesday and winds
will back to the southwest around 10 kts.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz003-006>012-
017>020-027>030-036-037-089.
pa...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for paz001.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
599
fxus63 kiwx 201124
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
624 am est fri feb 20 2026

.key messages...

- a wind advisory is in effect today with gusty southwest to
westerly winds. gusts up to 45 mph expected through this
evening.

- colder air arriving today with temperatures dropping through
the day. any remaining rain showers or drizzle will begin to
change over to snow showers/graupel.

- snow is expected saturday night into monday with accumulating
snow possible, especially downwind of lake mi.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 213 am est fri feb 20 2026

last few areas of convective showers with a few embedded
rumbles of thunder and even some small hail will continue to
move east to northeastward out of the area this morning with
drier air with an initial cold front pushing through. winds will
begin to trend higher this morning and will increase further
with the approach of a secondary cold front associated with an
occluded low pressure system currently sitting over central ia.
this cold front will push through today and will advect in a
drier airmass and colder temperatures into the area.
temperatures in the mid 40s this morning will drop into the low
30s by this evening. any residual rain showers will begin to
change over to snow by late this afternoon and evening.

this frontal passage is accompanied by a tight pressure
gradient due to the occluded low pressure system moving eastward
through the southern great lakes and this will bring very gusty
southwesterly winds which will become more westerly later
today. gusts at times will approach 45 mph, a few locally
stronger gusts may also be possible today. a wind advisory has
been issued for the entire cwa from 7 am est this morning until
7 pm est this evening. a few strong gusts could still occur
either before the start time and just after the end time but the
majority of the strongest gusts will occur between that time.
secure loose items and lawn furniture to avoid damage.

lows saturday morning will drop into the mid to upper 20s. a
break in precipitation chances for the majority of the day on
saturday but another trough drops into the great lakes late
saturday night into sunday. this will bring snow showers across
the area with some light accumulations, mainly less than an inch
of snowfall. however, as the trough drops further southeastward
sunday afternoon into monday morning a more north to
northwesterly flow will arrive and this will produce some lake
effect snow showers, and areas nearby and adjacent to lake
michigan will see additional accumulations of about 1 to 2
inches. roads will become slick/slippery at times especially in
the heavier lake effect bands. highs on sunday will range in the
low to upper 30s with the warmer temperatures further east into
ohio. lows by monday morning will get down to the low to mid 20s
across the area. another reinforcement of colder air will
filter in with a more northwesterly flow monday and into
tuesday morning with highs on monday right around the freezing
mark and lows on tuesday morning in the upper teens to low 20s.

some slight warming will occur by the middle of the week with a
more zonal flow aloft in place. highs by wednesday will warm
into the 40s with a few locations getting around 50 degrees.
some light rain showers will be possible ahead of another trough
that will drop southeast into the region late wednesday into
thursday. this will bring some slight cooling for thursday with
highs ranging from the mid 30s northward and low 40s for
locations further south. a mix of rain and snow will be possible
mainly north of us-30 on thursday. another zonal pattern will
envelop the area by friday providing a bit of warming once again
with highs on friday in the mid to upper 40s with even a few 50s
possible. we really will be on a temperature rollercoaster for
the end of the week, and confidence in the going forecast this
far out is a bit lower pending cloud cover and exact trough
placement and strength.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 619 am est fri feb 20 2026

predominantly mvfr conditions at the terminals, with potential
for periods of vfr/ifr. temporary vfr conditions this morning
will diminish to mvfr and potentially ifr as the low pressure
system centered over lake mi drifts e-ne through this evening.
light rain/drizzle or even a few snow showers may develop at
ksbn as a trough pivoting around the low passes this morning,
with brief dips to ifr ceilings/visibilities possible. kfwa
could see a few showers later this morning into the early
afternoon, but confidence was too low to include anything beyond
vcsh at this point. otherwise, southwest winds gusting to around
35-40 knots are expected through late afternoon, gradually
shifting more westerly with time. ceilings look to return to
high end mvfr/vfr towards the end of the period as dry air works
its way in and winds shift westerly.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
030
fxus63 kdtx 201423
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
923 am est fri feb 20 2026

.key messages...

- a wind advisory is in effect along/south of i-69 today for
southwesterly gusts to 45 mph.

- additional light showers at times today, eventually mixing with
melting snowflakes by this evening.

- seasonably cooler this weekend with potential for around an inch
of snow by sunday night.

- highs could struggle to break above the freezing mark monday, and
possibly tuesday, with wind chills minimizing in the single digits.

- additional opportunities for snowfall late tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.update...

the occluded front is quickly progressing across the area from sw to
ne, marked by southwest wind gusts already briefly surpassing 40 mph
in adrian, ann arbor, jackson, toledo, monroe, and lansing. this
initial pop of wind is being driven by strong post-frontal subsidence
that will be transient at any location this morning with late
morning wind mainly settling into the 30 mph range. as the surface
low - currently just west of manistee - tracks into northern lower
mi, its pressure gradient will overspread southern lower mi and
increasing boundary layer mixing depth within the ensuing cold
advection will attempt to tap into 50 kt flow that arrives into the
2500-3500 kft agl layer this afternoon. model soundings indicate
mixing depth will be dampened by the arrival of system wrap-around
moisture, which should keep the bulk of the higher magnitude
elevated. still, ensemble probabilities continue to support peak
gusts of near 45 mph at times today, with highest confidence during
the early to mid afternoon. href and rrfs both indicate 60%
probability to exceed 45 mph and about 20% to exceed 50 mph. no
changes to the wind advisory which remains in effect until 9 pm for
much of se mi.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 612 am est fri feb 20 2026

aviation...

inbound frontal boundary attendant to low pressure lifting across
the western great lakes will sweep through between 13z and 15z. this
will bring an abrupt wind shift to southwesterly, while effectively
lifting remaining fog and lifr stratus. frontal passage offers a
brief window for additional shower development. steady increase in
post-frontal wind gust magnitude with time into the early afternoon,
peaking in excess of 35 knots from ptk southward. secondary period
of shower development possible within expansive mvfr stratus this
afternoon and evening as cold air advection strengthens beneath the
passing upper level low. reduction in freezing level appears
sufficient to allow for some melting snow to mix in with any
activity. moist profile maintains extensive stratus at mvfr tonight,
with some lingering gustiness to southwest wind.

for dtw...mid morning very low stratus/fog will lift with the
frontal passage after 14z. possibility for a few wet snowflakes to
mix in with a light shower development this afternoon and evening.
no accumulation expected.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* low for ptype of melting snow this afternoon and evening.

prev discussion...
issued at 326 am est fri feb 20 2026

discussion...

low pressure ejects from the eastern plains into the upper midwest
this morning, bringing with it additional rounds of showers. morning
radar imagery reveals pockets of showers lifting out of southwest
lower michigan, coincident with the lead warm front. in the absence
of appreciable elevated cape (75 j/kg or less) or mid-level cooling,
embedded thundershowers remain unlikely, but a non-zero chance
persists.

goes water vapor channels show the mid-level dry slot already
advancing toward the wabash river valley, which eventually leads to
a midday pause in local shower activity. temperatures are expected
to peak mid-late morning within the narrow warm sector, before the
system`s occlusion passes overhead. this then provides the next
opportunity for a few scattered showers into the afternoon hours
while temperatures exhibit a non-diurnal cooling trend once cold
advection commences.

model data suggests a secondary surface low should emerge over
southern lower michigan this afternoon along the occluded boundary.
variance exists in the position of this reflection, which impacts
the location of stronger gradient winds and subsequent precipitation
responses related to wrap-around moisture advection. forecast
soundings and aggregate model blends suggest at least some chance
for a few flakes to mix in with the afternoon/evening round of light
precipitation. 850 mb temperature profiles currently show the
coldest air lifting in from the southwest favoring initial flakes
further south.

regarding the wind advisory in effect along/south of i-69,
probabilities to meet gust thresholds (45+ mph) have trended
slightly lower as mixing depths struggle to extend into the 45+ knot
llj core, by midday. boundary-layer lapse rates quickly steepen upon
shifting from southeast to southwest flow between 15z and 18z,
associated with the atypical transition to cold advection. this
suggests a higher frequency of gusts in the 30-40 mph range earlier
in the advisory period. then the 160 knot upper-level jet streak
slides into the ohio valley this afternoon, displaced slightly
downstream of the max llj winds approaching 50 knots occupying the 2-
3 kft agl layer. mixing depths will be shrinking into the evening
hours, but this transition period offers the highest chance to reach
criteria wind gusts.

the steering shortwave trough progresses over lake huron tonight
with decreasing winds locally, veering zonally. persistent troughing
produces opportunities for light snow showers/flurries late tonight
and saturday, more so for the northern half of the cwa. temperatures
settle back toward seasonal normals over the weekend. the next
system emerges sunday with the predominant precipitation type as
snow. gradual accumulations of around an inch are possible over a 24-
30 hour window (06z sunday to 06z monday). synoptic pattern unlocks
and becomes more amplified during the early to mid-week time-frame
with a series of shortwaves. additional opportunities arise for snow
late tuesday into wednesday, followed by a wintry mix late wednesday
into thursday. highs could struggle to break above the freezing mark
monday, and possibly tuesday.

marine...

low pressure reaches lake michigan this morning, drawing a warm
front north into lake erie and lake st clair. mixing depths along
the shoreline increase as the warm sector lifts north, leading to
gale force gusts close to land. a gale warning has been issued as a
result. the northern lake huron gale watch remains in effect as
stability and track of the low continue to generate only marginal
potential to reach warning thresholds mainly late morning through the
afternoon. once observational trends become more clear, a decision
to upgrade or cancel the watch will be made. otherwise, widespread
precipitation is expected as the warm front lifts through. the low
then weakens friday night before peeling off into ontario by saturday
morning. cyclonic flow holds in place through the weekend, while
additional disturbances aloft keep wintry precipitation in play.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...wind advisory until 9 pm est this evening for miz060>062-068>070-
075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lhz421-441-443.

lake st clair...gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......tf
aviation.....mr
discussion...kgk
marine.......mv


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.