Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
805
fxus61 kcle 071827
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
227 pm edt wed oct 7 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions with seasonable to above average temperatures
expected to continue through saturday.

2) unsettled weather returns late this weekend and continues into
next week with widespread rainfall expected on sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the remainder
of the week and beginning of the weekend. a cold front will
glide east across the forecast area overnight tonight. most of
the forecast area will remain dry with the frontal passage
outside of low-end pops in lake enhanced rain showers across
northwest pennsylvania tonight. another area of high pressure
builds overhead behind the cold front leading to prolonged dry
conditions through late saturday. high temperatures thursday and
friday will be cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s. a warm
front will lift across the upper ohio valley on saturday leading
to high temperatures in mid 70s to low 80s. lows will generally
fall into the low 50s tonight and saturday night. chillier on
friday night with lows in the mid 40s.

key message 2...
unsettled weather returns sunday and continues into the middle of
next week. tropical storm isaias currently located in the
southwestern gulf is expected to make landfall as a hurricane
later this week along the northern gulf coast. the remmants of
isaias will move northward into the tennessee and ohio valley
and bring widespread rainfall to the region on sunday. current
forecast is dry for monday before an upper trough digs eastward
across the great lakes region tuesday into wednesday bringing
renewed rain chances.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
widespread vfr conditions are expected to persist through this
taf period as a weak cold front moves east tonight. no
precipitation is anticipated from this front but winds will be
gusty from the southwest ahead of it with gusts at all terminals
of 20-25 knots expected through at least 00z. overnight winds
will slowly back to become west-northwesterly around 10 knots
which will persist through the end of the period. some gusts up
to 20 knots are possible thursday afternoon, but will likely
occur after this period.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain showers on sunday.

&&

.marine...
opted to extend the timing of the small craft advisory as
northwesterly winds and waves will remain elevated behind the
passage of a cold front this evening. wave heights are expected
to build to 3-6 feet at times in the far central and eastern
basins as northwest winds briefly increase to 15-20 knots. winds
remain onshore at 10-15 knots through friday afternoon before
turning offshore friday night and diminishing to 8-12 knots.
winds turn westerly to southwesterly monday into mid- week with
the next best chance for marine headlines monday night into
tuesday as a low pressure system tracks across the great lakes
region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez144-
145.
small craft advisory until noon edt thursday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...04
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
287
fxus63 kiwx 071809
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
209 pm edt wed oct 7 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather is expected to continue into the start of the
weekend. very warm on saturday with highs in the 80s.

- there is a 40-70% chance of rain saturday night through sunday.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 pm edt wed oct 7 2026

a pleasant fall afternoon once again, through a touch breezy with
southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25 mph. the pressure gradient has
increased in response to low pressure over the hudson bay and
persistent high pressure over the carolinas. this low has a trailing
cold front nosing into northern illinois this afternoon. abundant
dry air precludes any rain chances with this front. cooler tomorrow,
especially downwind of lake michigan, yet southern areas will remain
pleasant in the mid-70s.

turning to friday and the weekend, increasing opportunities for rain
as the jet stream buckles in response to a pacific northwest trough.
the downstream ridge amplifies over the eastern seaboard sending a
surge of warmth poleward for the weekend. amid this pattern change,
a modest warm front may serve as the focus for isolated showers over
illinois as early as friday. we retain a dry forecast at this time
with the best focus for lift a moisture colocated to our west, yet
this will be a modest feature to keep an eye on.

of greater interest is tropical storm isaias, which is forecast to be
swept northward in the coming days. this weekend, the primary
steering mechanism for this system will be the incoming pacific
northwest trough and a subtropical ridge over the mid-atlantic
coast. there continues to be some disagreement in the east-west
nature of the track of isaias, and so our forecast continues to
carry a 40-70% chance of rain as early as saturday night
lingering into sunday, with the greatest rain chances well away
from lake michigan. significant impacts are not expected.

another area of low pressure tracks through the midwest later monday
and tuesday, representing our next chance for rain, with continued
fluxuations in daily high temperatures.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1237 pm edt wed oct 7 2026

high pressure continues to provide tranquil and dry conditions.
expect vfr ceilings through the taf period (with very few
clouds at all) with west winds between 5-10 knots. there could
still be a few gusts this afternoon to 20 kts along and east of
i-69, but otherwise, winds will be relaxing this evening and
overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
965
fxus63 kdtx 072239
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
639 pm edt wed oct 7 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with cool to seasonable temperatures thursday and
friday; chilly thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

- much warmer saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees.

- next significant chance of rain arrives for the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

the cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms now advancing
across northern lower mi will remain north of the se mi terminals
this evening as the main mid level forcing driving this will track
across northern lake huron. this will leave clear skies across the se
mi terminals tonight. ongoing weak cold air advection within the
west- northwest gradient will keep winds slightly elevated this
evening. shallow nocturnal boundary layer cooling suggests a likely
drop in wind speeds below 7 knots overnight. sustained wnw gradient
flow will allow a modest uptick in winds with diurnal heating thurs
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 336 pm edt wed oct 7 2026

discussion...

pretty quiet forecast heading through the end of the work week as
the energetic jet stream resides mostly across canada. stacked low
centered over hudson bay today will send a trough down through the
great lakes on the nose of a mid level jet streak tonight. this
opens the door for broad troughing to encompass a portion of the
northern great lakes while high pressure slides through the midwest
into the ohio valley building a stable airmass across the southern
great lakes. for tonight, northwesterly cool flow over the
relatively warm lakes will provide a boost to instability and though
moisture is weak, pwats roughly 0.6 inches, there could be enough
concentrated moisture in the region of steeper low/mid level lapse
rates to allow some scattered showers or even a thunderstorm over
the north half of lake huron. further south into the thumb, moisture
is even thinner and forcing weaker, but the cool airmass and low
level jet could be enough to touch off some scattered showers over
the thumb this evening into tonight. current radar over the u.p.
does have thunderstorms present adding to the confidence of weak
storms over northern huron later.

high pressure then expands back northward across the region ending
any rain chances thursday into friday. cool air within the trough
will drop 850mb temps into the single digits above 0c leading to
cool highs in the 60s to end the week. clearing skies under the
ridge with the cool airmass in place could allow some low temps to
fall into the upper 30s thursday night in some of the cooler spots,
otherwise low 40s could be in store for most locations.

brief but strong warm up on saturday as strong ridging over the
plains advances eastward over the great lakes. ecmwf is a touch
warmer (~18c at 850mb) than gfs (-16c) saturday with strong
southwesterly flow into the region. current forecast is for temps to
touch 80f in the saginaw valley with upper 70s for most other
locations. the warm front leading the way could touch off a few
showers after 00z saturday with the bubble of stronger theta e
lifting through the area. though model output is not strong in
producing rain, we`ve see these leading theta e gradients on
elevated warm fronts produce narrow brief areas of showers many
times. for now, we`ll note it and see if we need to add pops later.

this warmup will be brief as attention the turns to ts isaias which
is set to make landfall over ms friday evening then getting drawn
northward into the ohio valley before getting caught in the
westerlies and forced to the east coast. this brings the rain shield
into lower mi saturday night and/or sunday. details will come
together in the coming days, but for now expect a gradient of rain
from south to north with the highest totals over southern lower mi.
abundant moisture with a tropical system will lead to efficient rain
production for any areas that get clipped by the rain shield.

marine...

moderate southwesterly winds gradually weaken this evening as a cold
front extending from low pressure near james bay crosses the central
great lakes. the lighter gradient winds also veer west-northwesterly
behind the front early tonight. however, an uptick in speeds returns
late tonight or early wednesday as the upper level jet deepens over
the region. stability trends lower with the slightly cooler airmass,
and given the rejuvenated low-level jet winds, mixing likely
delivers some elevated gusts. potential exists for gusts to around
30 knots over portions of lake huron thursday afternoon, with
marginal gusts to gales possible for northern huron. a small craft
advisory may be needed over the thumb should confidence rise in the
frequency of 25+ knot gusts, but any higher end gusts further north
should be infrequent enough to preclude a gale warning. mid/upper
mississippi valley high pressure then expands into the area thursday
night and friday offering weaker winds with a southerly shift.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.