Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
081
fxus61 kcle 100226
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1026 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

.what has changed...
shower and storm coverage overnight is decreasing and have dried
out the forecast; a storm complex moving across lake erie will
need some watching over the next few hours. locally heavy
rainfall is also possible with thunderstorms on friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected friday as a
cold front settles south into the area. a few thunderstorms
could be strong to severe (level 1 of 5) and produce locally
heavy rain.

2) dry conditions return on sunday with temperatures trending warmer
into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
shower and storm coverage over northern ohio and nw pa has
decreased substantially over the past several hours. a couple
cells attempt to refire along outflow boundaries from earlier
convection but they are shortlived. have updated pops to reflect
a more dry forecast tonight and through the overnight. one
feature to watch will be a small complex of storms that will
push south from lower ontario onto lake erie. there are some
hints that the complex will try to reach the shoreline tonight
but a gust front ahead of the storms may undercut the storm
intensity and allow for this complex to weaken as it moves
south.

a general uptick in storm coverage is expected again as we
destabilize on friday along the front. training of storms
resulting in pockets of heavy rain are the main concern on
friday with storm motion of only 10-15 mph. href probs are
showing some very low probabilities of three hour rainfall
exceeding 3 inches in some of the southern counties on friday
afternoon with activity settling south of the area during the
evening.

another robust shortwave will move through the ohio valley on
saturday and have continued with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. temperatures drop back into the lower 80s behind the
front by saturday.

key message 2...
strong high pressure builds over the central great
lakes on sunday and settles south into the area early next week.
this will bring several days of dry weather.

a broad upper level ridge is forecast to develop over the plains
states next week. the eastward extent of the ridge will impact
temperatures and chances of precipitation into the middle of next
week. at this time confidence is higher in above normal temperatures
in northwest ohio with lower confidence towards northwest
pennsylvania due to the possibility of a trough passing to the north
and/or possible lake breezes. the 12z gfs was stronger with the
new england trough than the consensus and continued with above
normal temperatures for most of the area next week.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
some widely scattered showers with isolated ts are moving
through northern ohio this evening. right now, most of the ts
chances should miss the terminals, as convection is waning over
the area. however, some residual gust fronts may make it to
kmfd, kcak, and kyng and allow for some brief showers and wind
shifts over the next couple of hours.

overall, the atmosphere is stabilizing this evening, even with
the upper level shortwave moving through the region. additional
shower/storm development remains low once the sun goes down by
02z. some model guidance is hinting at some sparse development
overnight and have retained some prob30s for rain late tonight
into friday. however, believe that activity will be minimal and
the potential for non-vfr at a terminal remains very low. as for
convection in eastern michigan or lower ontario, it appears
that much of that is moving east and should remain away from the
airspace.

for friday, the cold front will move through the region and
could allow for new showers and storms to develop. the recent
trend with guidance is for less convection in the airspace and
much more to the south over southern ohio. therefore, have no
precipitation mention in the tafs. however, some low probability
mentions may be added in future taf issuances. winds will be
southwest to west through most of the period, shifting to the
northwest behind the cold front.

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms through
saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions are expected to continue as high pressure
lingers over the area. southwest winds of 5-12 knots will gradually
become northwesterly tonight into friday morning as a weak low
pressure system move south of the lakeshore. waves will remain 2
feet or less. as the low moves south, there is a potential for
showers and thunderstorms to develop which may produce locally gusty
winds and higher waves.

high pressure returns this weekend allowing winds to shift to
northeasterly at 8-12 knots for saturday and sunday. onshore flow
across the western and central basin may result in waves building to
1 to 3 feet. this high will remain dominant into next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10/sefcovic
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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949
fxus63 kiwx 100436
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1236 am edt fri jul 10 2026

.key messages...

- widely scattered thunderstorms early this morning.

- thunderstorms are also possible friday afternoon and saturday
but severe weather is not expected.

- turning hot and dry next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 112 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

agreement between the gfs and ecmwf on slowly bringing a cold
front/thermal gradient southward between today and friday
night/saturday morning would indicate an, at best, marginal severe
weather risk with weak wind shear (<30 kts), but ample instability
(>2500 j/kg mucape on the nam) as well as 1000+ j/kg of dcape.
trying to track forcing is an issue with weak impulses passing
through including a weak positively tilted trough. a weak low level
jet (~25 kts) shows itself in mi from this morning into the
afternoon and then there`s also an attempt to organize a low
level jet out of mo overnight. it could be that the mo jet gets
cut off and moisture transport fails though. the midday jet
around mi appears to be colocated with large scale ascent at
times. however, the mo jet is slightly removed from the large
scale ascent on the ecmwf potentially contributing to its
failure. two distinct peaks in pwats around 2 inches or so
passing through include during peak heating this afternoon as
well as overnight. sfc dew points exceed 70f while 850 mb dew
points exceed 10c. meanwhile, as the previous shift noted, the
better moisture content identified by theta-e is farther west
and this appears to slide by to the southwest of the area or
just casually graze our southwest this afternoon into overnight.
models are all over the place for friday with some of the
guidance still retaining pops across the whole area whereas
there is a smattering of guidance keeping things south of
us-24/us-30 area. the more southward progression could be
possible if a cold pool/outflow boundary sets up from overnight
convection. all of this considered, am fine with the marginal
risk of severe weather advertised by spc, which could be aided
by cell collisions, differential heating, and the high theta-e
airmass. wind and heavy rain appear to be the main threats along
with lightning. with the cold front slowly pushing through, the
dew points exceeding 70f and highs exceed 90f in our southeast,
this would indicate apparent temperatures in the 90s, at least,
for this afternoon. these do appear to slowly trend lower as
highs dip back into the 80s with the fropa. dew points abate
later friday/friday night with the fropa.

it is interesting to see that there are still models trying to
produce showers in the relative dryness on saturday. i`m not
sold on this, but will include some slight chances for that. the
gfs appears out to lunch, but the nam/ecmwf appear to have a
better handle on things, which show the greatest chance during
the afternoon saturday.

after saturday, a high pressure system and mid level ridging stall
across the area providing dry weather from sunday until at least the
middle to end of next week (7/15-7/17 time frame) as a backdoor
front attempts to come in. it appears to be a sort of mcs pattern
with plenty of heat around. 850 mb temps creep above 18c and
sfc dew points surpass 70f tuesday and wednesday of next week
indicating potential heat headlines if enough insolation can be
had.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1236 am edt fri jul 10 2026

widely scattered storms will remain possible through 09-10z with
brief ifr/mvfr vis restrictions possible (currently seeing this
at ksbn). weak mid level shortwave and deeper moisture will exit
off to the east by daybreak with dry conditions anticipated
through the early afternoon. retained an mvfr group at ksbn
10-16z as some stratus/br may attempt to fill in given light
winds, late clearing and moist low levels. moisture/instability
axis will linger over northern in this afternoon with diurnally
driven, scattered, convection redeveloping.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 100411
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1211 am edt fri jul 10 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the
weekend.

- a new heat wave is on schedule for next week (3 consecutive days
of highs 90+ degrees).

&&

.aviation...

frontal boundary has settled across the i-69/m-59 corridor with only
a couple isolated showers hanging around southeast michigan.
northerly winds are present north of the front with variable winds
near and south of the front. mvfr to possible ifr ceilings should
develop early this morning within the northerly flow and around the
frontal boundary. presence of the boundary and lingering low level
moisture with dew points into the upper 60s/low 70s brings potential
for fog throughout the night with some isolated vsby drops already
observed. northerly winds behind the front will persist through the
morning along with the lower ceilings. as front drops further south
tomorrow afternoon a few scattered showers, maybe isolated thunder,
will be possible for 2-3 hours in the afternoon across the southern
metro terminals.

d21/dtw convection...thunder chances are low for tomorrow. most
likely window around 17-19z if an isolated thunderstorm can develop.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet early this morning.
high by mid morning into the afternoon.

* low for thunder tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt thu jul 9 2026

discussion...

scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed across se
michigan this afternoon, with varying depths to the convective
cores. the deepest cores have topped out around 25.0 kft agl, likely
after encountering the subsidence bubble that resides in the 15.0-
20.0 kft layer and an otherwise modest lapse rate environment. peak
wind gusts in these cells have so far remained below severe limits,
although a few have come close. storm motion around 20-30 mph brings
the back edge of the storms currently near lansing through the
detroit metro area by 7 pm or so. a more organized line of
thunderstorms is ongoing across northern lower mi right along the
surface cold front, moving east-southeast. convection along this
boundary will clip portions of the saginaw valley and the thumb
early this evening, although the front itself will be relatively
slow-moving. thermodynamics are favorable for a few storms to become
severe this evening, with mlcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg in place
(spc mesoanalysis) and dewpoints still in the upper 60s-low 70s.
wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph and heavy rainfall with rates in excess
of an inch per hour are the main concerns.

the frontal zone gradually sinks across lower michigan overnight,
with models varying in how aggressively this occurs and if any of
the convective activity can hang on as instability wanes. most
models settle the surface convergence and moisture axis north of the
state line through friday to renew scattered shower and thunderstorm
chances during the day, mainly south of m-59. similar to today,
moist boundary layer conditions result in mid-day destabilization
and an early afternoon start to convective initiation. precipitation
loaded cores again look to the be main concern as lapse rates will
be modest around 5.5-6.0 c/km. the strongest cells will thus be
capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour and
localized downburst winds of 40-60 mph.

surface pressure rises begin friday night as canadian high pressure
expands south into the great lakes, coinciding with a building
western conus ridge. this releases the front fully south and clears
out remaining moisture to bring pwat values below 1" saturday. this
also effectively steers the next mid-level wave into the southern
ohio valley, maintaining an overall dry forecast for the weekend.
core of the thermal trough stays over new england, with se michigan
on the western periphery of the thermal gradient. northeast flow
keeps us within a fairly stagnant thermal advective regime
maintaining seasonable highs in the low-mid 80s.

building heat dome over the intermountain west becomes dislodged by
a deep low over northern canada, causing it to spill around the
ridge and into the great lakes region early next week. temperatures
climb into the upper 80s monday and likely into the low 90s tuesday-
wednesday. this will bring heat indices into the mid-upper 90s. less
confidence in heat potential for the back half of the week however
with much of that depending on how the upstream ridge and northern
stream low interact. positioning of the ridge to our west and
resultant nw flow pattern do look to put us in a favorable corridor
for convection, which will also influence temperatures next week.

marine...

a weak cold front settles southward across lake huron this afternoon
and evening before stalling or washing out near lake st. clair and
western lake erie overnight into early friday. scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly south of the front
during this period, with isolated storms capable of producing wind
gusts in excess of 34 kt. otherwise, ambient light wind will veer
from west/southwest to north/northeast as the front passes through.
high pressure builds across the northern great lakes on friday which
maintains north to northeast wind of 10 to 15 kt. gusts may briefly
reach near 20 kt in the afternoon across southern lake huron and
saginaw bay due to favorable fetch orientation. lingering showers
and storms are possible mainly in the south. the high pressure eases
farther south on saturday and sunday, maintaining mostly dry
conditions with light northeast wind.

hydrology...

a slow moving cold front settles through southern lower michigan
tonight serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms.
the greatest coverage and intensity is expected to continue through
the evening with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area.
basin average rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is most likely
with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm
coverage. the slow movement of the front could also produce more than
one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than
1 inch within a few hours time. this presents minor urban flooding
potential along with ponding of water on roads and in other prone
areas. scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into
friday, mainly south of m-59, before coming to an end friday
afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......tf
hydrology....mv/bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.