Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
300 pm est sat dec 6 2025

.synopsis...
a stationary front will remain over lake erie through sunday as weak
low pressure tracks east-northeast along it. the front will sweep
southeast across the area sunday evening, followed by high pressure on
monday. stronger low pressure moves through the southern great lakes
on wednesday.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
-light snow accumulations are likely primarily north of u.s. 30 on
sunday, with impacts expected to be minor. minor lake-enhanced snow
lingers into sunday night south of lake erie, ending by monday.
-patchy freezing drizzle is possible (medium confidence) early sunday
morning ahead of the arrival of steadier snow, which may lead to
some slick spots.

we will be cloudy and chilly (banner early december weather for the
region) but mainly dry through most of tonight. a very subtle mid-
level trough will push off of lake erie and into far northeast oh and
northwest pa early this evening, which may touch off some very light
snow (possibly mixed with freezing drizzle due to a lack of moisture
and lift above the -10c level) between approximately 4-8 pm. given
very minor amounts of precipitation am expecting very little if any
impact, with a low risk (10-20%) for enough freezing drizzle to glaze
untreated surfaces across the higher terrain of northwest pa. some
minor lake effect snow then should focus over the lake (possibly
grazing the lakeshore from lake county points northeast) through the
night as winds back southwest, with potential for up to another inch
of snow near the erie county pa lakeshore overnight if this lake
effect pushes onshore more than currently expected. lows tonight will
not drop too much given plenty of clouds and some weak warm air
advection developing overnight...mainly to a 25-30 degree range.

a shortwave will cross the region sunday afternoon as weak surface
low pressure tracks east-northeast along the stationary front that
will remain near lake erie. the front sweeps southeast sunday evening
behind the low pressure. low-level moisture increases late tonight
into sunday morning ahead of the deeper moisture/lift aloft arriving
from the west. this leads to another brief window with low to medium
confidence potential (20-40%) for flurries or freezing drizzle across
parts of the area early sunday morning. given the timing and a colder
ground now, this will need to be monitored for patchy impacts on
untreated surfaces...though again, we`re not talking much
precipitation and confidence is not high enough for any enhanced
messaging at the moment beyond a forecast mention. in terms of the
main window of precipitation/snow on sunday, we`re looking at mainly
weak lift focused in the low-levels with this system as surface
temperatures warm towards or a bit above freezing during the day. snow
should arrive across northwest oh fairly quickly after sunrise and
spread into eastern oh/western pa by late morning or early afternoon.
while most of the area will see snow and pops have been pushed up a
bit higher to reflect that likelihood, the snow looks rather light and
perhaps even "showery" with snow:liquid ratios likely <12:1. qpf
amounts will range from 0.10-0.20" north to <0.10" south. this adds up
to light potential snow accumulations, ranging from 1-2" across our
northern counties to 1" or less elsewhere. the greatest potential for
snow to stick to roads will likely be across northwest oh sunday
morning given earlier arrival of the snow and perhaps a brief window
of steadier snow farther west in the morning, with the snow likely
not doing much of anything to the roads elsewhere during the day.

most of the area dries out pretty quickly into sunday night, though
weak synoptic lift lingering across northeast oh and northwest pa into
the first few hours of sunday night will combine with modest lake
enhancement (as winds turn north-northwest behind the front and low-
levels quickly cool) to keep mainly light snow showers going there.
synoptic moisture quickly exits through sunday evening, leaving lake
effect flurries and snow showers into the night that will quickly
dissipate themselves as high pressure builds in. some flurries may
persist into monday morning, especially if a lake huron connection
that is hinted at by some models develops, though any snow should not
be at all impactful by then. am not expecting much additional snow
sunday night, perhaps another inch or so across some of the higher
terrain in the snowbelt...primarily falling in the evening. however,
with surface temperatures quickly dropping on their way to overnight
lows in the 10s and to near 20, locations that see accumulating snow
after sunset could see untreated surfaces become slick/icy.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
-light snow possible (30-60%) across northeast oh and northwest pa
tuesday afternoon ahead of a warm front.
-precipitation chances (currently favoring a rain/snow mix) ramp up
from the west later tuesday night area-wide.

quite weather is expected for monday and monday night as high pressure
slides through the southern great lakes. highs on monday will be cold
in the mid to upper 20s, with lows mainly in the 10s (some single
digits in colder/outlying areas) monday night.

a shortwave will move across the central/southern great lakes on
tuesday as a warm front lifts across the area. this brings potential
for snow along and ahead of the warm front, especially across
northeast oh and northwest pa during the afternoon and early evening
with lower odds for a bit of snow to clip northwest oh tuesday morning/
midday. with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 30s on tuesday
(slightly cooler in the terrain of northwest pa) and light snow
primarily occurring in the afternoon, impacts are expected to be low.
our southwestern counties are expected to remain dry on tuesday.

tuesday night starts fairly dry, though a more potent clipper
approaches from the west-northwest overnight into early wednesday.
large scale ascent (largely courtesy of warm advection ahead of the
system) and moisture quickly ramp up from the west overnight tuesday
night into early wednesday, bringing another round of precipitation
later tuesday night into early wednesday morning. lows will only
bottom out in the upper 20s/lower 30s tuesday evening before warming
tuesday night, with temperatures aloft also expected to warm. this
suggests rain will become an increasingly favored precipitation type
outside of the higher terrain of northwest pa overnight tuesday night,
with fairly light qpf amounts (generally 0.05-0.20", highest across
our northeastern counties). the forecast currently calls for a
rain/snow mix across most of the area tuesday night into early
wednesday morning, with snow accumulations likely to be minimal to
none for most of the area given the expected warming temperatures and
mix/change to rain for most of the area.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
-potent clipper system exits to the east on wednesday and pulls a cold
front across the area. gusty winds and rain/snow showers are
possible, with some lingering lake effect into wednesday night.
-a cold and potentially active pattern is expected to settle in for
the end of the week and start of the weekend, though confidence in
details is on the lower side this far out. the greatest potential for
impactful snow will likely end up downwind of lake erie.

precipitation ahead of the clipper discussed in the short term will
likely continue into wednesday morning, especially across northeast oh
and northwest pa. temperatures will continue to support a rain/snow
mix with likely minimal impact for most, but perhaps mainly or all
snow in the higher terrain of the snowbelt where light accumulations
are possible. the clipper exits to the east-northeast wednesday
afternoon and evening, dragging the system`s cold front across the
area. a few snow or rain/snow showers could accompany the front area-
wide. the airmass behind the front wednesday night into early thursday
will not be all that cold (850mb temps dipping to around -10c) with
winds expected to start backing again quickly into thursday, so we`re
not looking at significant lake effect behind this front. however,
the combination of some lake enhancement to any snow showers along the
front itself and a modest amount of lake effect behind it could allow
for some accumulating snow (likely below advisory amounts) across the
snowbelt late wednesday into early thursday. locations outside of the
snowbelt will generally see minimal accumulation, with perhaps some
dustings (<1") with any snow showers along the front late wednesday.

there is good agreement that a longwave trough (with a healthy tap of
arctic air) will deepen over the great lakes to end the week and
start the weekend, though there is less agreement in the timing of the
arrival of the deeper cold airmass and in any shortwaves/clippers
that will likely move through the region between thursday and
saturday. the take home message is that another period of well-below-
average temperatures (highs in the 10s/20s, lows in the single
digits/10s) is likely starting friday or saturday. accumulating snow,
particularly downwind of the lake but possibly area-wide with any
clippers, is possible between late thursday and saturday, though with
generally lower confidence in any specifics at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
an expansive mvfr cloud deck is in place across the region and
will impact the terminals for much of the taf period. a weak
cold front extends from low pressure over james bay and will
enhance a band of snows showers developing over lake erie this
afternoon. this band may push into eri after 20z and have tried
to time a window of light snow showers late this afternoon and
into tonight. timing and intensity will likely need to be
refined with this feature. these snow showers are expected to
lift north of the terminal late tonight.

an area of low pressure tracking out of the plains states will
weaken as it approaches the ohio valley on sunday. this is
likely to bring snow to portions of the area on sunday morning
and have this reaching tol by 12z, cle by 14z, and eri by 17z.
a few hours of ifr visibilities are likely at terminals in nw
ohio and downwind of lake erie at cle/eri. elsewhere other
terminals are likely to experience mvfr visibilities in light
snow and mist. can not rule out a little patchy freezing drizzle
with the low level cloudiness through the period and included a
prob group at cak for an hour or so on sunday morning. west
southwest winds near 10 knots today will decrease and back to
the south tonight. a wind shift to the northwest is likely
between 16-21z sunday as a cold front pushes south.

outlook...periods of ifr is expected areawide with widespread
light snow on sunday. non-vfr is expected again with snow on
tuesday and a rain/snow mix on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots on lake erie today will veer
to westerly and decrease to 10 to 20 knots tonight. a small craft
advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters east of cleveland
until 10 pm this evening. waves will drop off overnight as a ridge
builds across the lake. another low pressure system tracking out of
the plains will weaken as it moves towards the ohio valley on
sunday, pulling a cold front south across lake erie. winds will
shift to the northwest and then north at 15-25 knots and small craft
advisories will likely be needed again east of the lake erie islands
sunday night and continuing into monday morning on the central
basin.

next we turn on our attention to an active mid-week period. low
pressure will move east across the central great lakes on tuesday
and southerly winds on lake erie will increase to 25-35 knots. winds
remain elevated tuesday night then ramp up a little more as a
stronger low pressure system traverses the central great lakes but
is displaced just south of the first one. both the tuesday and
wednesday system are accompanied by a strong low level jet and could
potentially see a low end gale with either or both. winds shift to
the west and northwest behind the system wednesday night. will
continue to monitor the track of these system for possible gale
conditions and small craft advisories that will follow on the east
half of lake erie. low water conditions are likely again on the
western basin of lake erie tuesday afternoon through early thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
249 pm est sat dec 6 2025

.key messages...

- highs in the 30s through wednesday except briefly colder
monday and again next friday and saturday with highs only in
the lower 20s. morning lows on monday, tuesday, and next
saturday will again dip down into the single digits.

- snow accumulations of mainly 1-2 inches with a few localized
areas getting around 3 inches tonight into sunday afternoon,
highest totals near lake michigan. limited impacts are expected.

- several systems will bring snow mixed with rain at times
through this upcoming week. impacts should be generally limited.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 223 pm est sat dec 6 2025

tonight, chances for snow showers and light snow will increase
through the evening with a weak clipper type system pushing in
from the west. this will continue and spread eastward through
late tonight and tomorrow morning. by sunday afternoon we will
see the snowfall for most areas diminishing however there will
still be a chance for lake effect snow showers through sunday
night. generally 1 to 2 inches of snowfall accumulations are
expected with this system. a few locations could see up to 3
inches total. some light drizzle/freezing drizzle mainly as the
onset for precipitation occurs this evening would be possible
but would be very short lived before changing over to flurries
and snow showers. the larger snowfall amounts will be for the
northwestern portions of the cwa and areas near lake michigan.
at this time messaging of any hazards such as slick roads would
most likely be best disseminated through an sps product later
this evening.

cold air will usher in behind this system beginning sunday
afternoon and evening and drop temperatures quickly. overnight
low temperatures on monday morning will dip down into the single
digits near zero. with relatively light winds the wind chills
will make it feel like 0 to -5 degrees. highs on monday will
only get into the low 20s with slightly warmer temperatures
along the lake michigan shoreline. tuesday morning will once
again get down into the single digits however just slightly
warmer than the night before with lows just under the 10
degree mark.

with a quasi-zonal flow aloft a few weak shortwaves make their
way through the region beginning on tuesday and this will allow
for some warm air to advect northward ahead of the disturbance
bringing a quick moderation in temperatures with highs on
tuesday getting into the mid 30s. this waa may present a few
issues for the forecast. the first would be how will the snow on
the ground affect the temperature forecast for both the highs
and lows on tuesday and wednesday as the warmer air moving over
the cold snowy ground may become modified at a greater rate than
expected keeping temperatures a tad lower than advertised.
this would also lead to less rain mixing in and more of the
frozen variety, including the increased potential for some freezing
rain especially in the onset of any rainfall. the final issue
would be the potential for development of fog across the area
tuesday through wednesday. so we will need to continue to
monitor the forecast for those possibilities as we get closer to
the beginning of the week.

another couple punches of cold arctic air will push southward
into the region wednesday through the end of the week into the
weekend. high temperatures by thursday and friday will only get
into the 20s and by saturday only the teens. lows on saturday
morning will again drop into the single digits.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1235 pm est sat dec 6 2025

pocket of clearing impacting kfwa with variable flight
conditions (vfr/mvfr) at this time. this is likely to continue
for a few hours before solid mvfr stratus deck moves in from
the west. ksbn was right on the northern fringe of the break so
a few excursions to vfr are possible for the next hour or 2.

attention then turns to a weakening system that will move in
late tonight into sunday. area of light snow should advance
towards ksbn in the 7-9z sun time frame and a few hours later at
kfwa. greatest flight impacts most likely at ksbn where
ifr/possible lifr cigs are anticipated. models vary on how much
impact kfwa may see from this with some suggesting mvfr cigs and
maybe some very light accumulations while others show a brief
period of some mesobanding as the last of the energy fizzles.
have stayed somewhat conservative there for the time being. any
precip should taper off near the end of the period at ksbn and
near or just outside of the period at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
244 pm est sat dec 6 2025

.key messages...

- widespread light snow expected sunday morning into early
afternoon. snow accumulations to range between a half-inch to two
inches for most locations.

- below normal temperatures continue this week, the coldest of which
arrive monday and tuesday. wind chill temperatures drop to or below
zero monday morning.

- active weather pattern continues into the midweek period where
additional snow chances will be possible.

&&

.discussion...

weak cold frontal boundary finally pushed east of the region early
this afternoon however lake moisture trapped below the post-frontal
inversion has maintained cloudy skies across lower mi. despite
ongoing weak cold advection through the evening, this cloud cover
keeps lows a few degrees warmer than they`d otherwise be instead
holding in the lower 20s to upper teens.

next chances for snow quickly arrive sunday morning as a weak
shortwave ejecting from the central rockies reaches the southern
great lakes/ohio valley. despite the wave track south of the state
line, areas north of m-59 actually look to start earliest, around 09-
10z, tied to developing interaction with a northern stream mid-level
trough diving across the northern great lakes. isentropic ascent
fills in across the remainder of se mi over the morning with all
areas likely seeing light accumulating snow by 12z. strongest
isentropic ascent and subsequent peak snow rates trails lead
precipitation by a couple hours arriving closer to mid-morning as
the parent vorticity reaches northern il/in. high res models have
begun backing away from earlier hints at potential f-gen banding
keeping rates on the lighter side between 0.1-0.25"/hr (highest in
the south where wave positioning offer greater moisture/forcing). a
potential exception to this northern thumb where continues to be a
subset of high-res guidance suggesting a convergence axis off the
saginaw bay/central lake huron enhancing rates. ohio valley surface
circulation rapidly weakens over the late morning-afternoon period
as the aforementioned northern stream trough takes over spurring new
surface low development over the eastern great lakes. locally, this
tapers off snowfall by late afternoon. total accumulations still
look to be on track for 0.5-2" across the cwa though should the lake
convergence axis manifest, areas from sebewaing to grind stone city
could approach 3".

arctic high pressure follows for monday bringing a brief reprieve in
the active pattern. the promotion of clearing skies sunday night as
the high builds in sets the stage for another very cold night with
morning lows in the single digits and wind chills nearing 0 for the
majority of the region. with the ridge axis not crossing the state
until monday night, thermal recovery is minimal as daytime highs
monday hold in the mid 20s and monday night lows fall near 10.

a baroclinic zone is set to linger over lower mi through next week
following the departure of high pressure late monday allowing a
series of clippers to track near or over the region almost everyday
into next weekend. first of these arrives daytime tuesday as a wave
passing near the straits offers light snow accumulations, mainly
over the northern half of the cwa. a stronger, more dynamic
shortwave is then progged to sweep out of the northern plains and
directly over southern mi wednesday. this current track allows a
degree of milder air to be partially advected into lower mi which
would support mixed precip (rain-snow) for at least a portion of the
area.

&&

.marine...

northwest winds gusting 25-30 knots over lake huron this afternoon
will diminish this evening and tonight as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the central great lakes, dropping winds under 15 knots
everywhere. weakening low pressure tracking through the ohio valley
tomorrow will bring widespread light snow sunday morning, trending
toward more localized snow squalls over lake huron late sunday as
850 mb temps lower into the negative mid teens. northwest winds
gusting between 25-30 knots appear likely late in the day. however,
winds then look to veer to the north-northeast fairly quickly and
weaken sunday night as high pressure quickly builds in for monday
morning. none-the-less, large waves of 6+ feet will build over the
southern lake huron. some of these larger waves look to clip the
nearshore waters of lake huron as winds veer around, and have issued
another round of small craft advisories for late sunday afternoon
into into monday morning for outer saginaw bay and the nearshore
waters of lake huron from port austin to port huron.

brief southwest gales possible on tuesday as low pressure tracks
through the northern great lakes. a larger and stronger low pressure
system is then on track to move through lower michigan tuesday night
into wednesday producing widespread snow and even changing
precipitation to rain over lake st. clair and lake erie. rush of
cold air behind the passage of the low will support strong northwest
winds late wednesday and wednesday evening. isolated, brief gusts to
gales will be possible, but the pressure gradient quickly relaxes by
thursday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1131 am est sat dec 6 2025

aviation...

a rather weak cold front will be exiting east of metro detroit
shortly around 18z. a subtle push of post frontal drying/subsidence
has cause some localized clearing of the mvfr cloud deck. upstream
observations and latest rap soundings indicate a lower (mvfr deck)
quickly filling back in. subtle post frontal cold air advection will
offer some lifting of the inversion during the afternoon/evening.
this may offer some improvement in ceilings heights. a prevailing
vfr deck will become more probable from fnt to mbs where the depth
of the cold air will be a little higher. an upper level short wave
will help drive some elevated warm and moist air advection across se
mi overnight into sun morning. this will bring widespread light snow
to the area.

for dtw...observational trends suggest some degree of variability
within the base of the stratus deck this afternoon/evening, with
ceilings likely to fluctuate around the 3000 ft ceiling threshold.
light snow is forecast to overspread metro around 10z and persist
through the morning. the peak snowfall is expected between 11 and
14z sunday, with a half inch to inch and a half total accums
forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today and tonight.

* high as precip type being all snow sunday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 3 pm sunday to 10 am est monday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......sf
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.