Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
251
fxus61 kcle 182041
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
341 pm est wed feb 18 2026

.what has changed...
there are no impactful changes with this forecast update.
temperatures will continue to be above average through friday
followed by a return of more seasonably cold weather this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) above average temperatures are expected through friday with
additional chances for rain and isolated thunder possible,
especially thursday night. local rivers will continue to be
monitored for the potential of ice jams and a localized
flooding threat.

2) seasonably colder temperatures will return this weekend into
early next week along with the chance for light snow.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the milder weather pattern that has brought us a nice february
thaw will continue through early friday. the upper ohio valley
region is currently under a broad west-southwest flow aloft.
there is a broad upper level trough over the western half of the
u.s. where most of the active and very unsettled weather has
been recently. a strong low pressure system is over the upper
midwest this afternoon. this surface low will weaken as it
tracks into the western great lakes tonight. there is a
stationary frontal boundary located from near detroit across the
western and central basin of lake erie.

there is a punch of drier air and clearing skies coming from the
cornbelt region of the midwest into the upper ohio valley this
afternoon. temperatures have climbed into the lower and middle
60s over nwoh this afternoon. skies still remain overcast for
much of neoh and nwpa where temperatures are generally in the
50s. by comparison, erie is still stuck in the upper 30s due to
a northeast flow off the lake.

going forward into tonight, the weather will remain fairly
quiet. there is the potential for areas of fog to develop
tonight due to the relatively moist ground and lighter winds
overnight. some hi-res forecast guidance shows the potential
for some localized dense fog possible. we will keep an eye on
trends this evening.

the next shortwave trough that will impact our weather over the
next 24 to 36 hours will track eastward from the colorado
rockies early thursday morning. a moisture surface boundary
that was mostly displaced by the drier air that moved into
western ohio will left back northward late tonight into thursday
morning. a few spotty showers may be possible by thursday
morning as the deeper moisture begins to return over the region.

a low pressure system will develop over the central plains
thursday and strengthen as it tracks towards western lake
michigan thursday night. much of the ohio valley will be in the
warm sector of this storm system thursday afternoon into the
overnight. the thermodynamics for the potential of some strong
to severe convection may come together for parts of the ohio
valley thursday afternoon and evening. at this time, the
forecast guidance shows the better potential for severe storms
southwest of our local area. spc has a marginal risk threat
coming up into our central ohio area. most of the convection
will first develop west and southwest of our area late thursday
afternoon/evening. we will watch this area of showers and
possible thunderstorms weakening as it moves into northern ohio
overnight thursday. average qpf expected from this round of rain
will be around a quarter to a third of an inch across the area
thursday evening through early friday morning. the surface low
will track through the central great lakes on friday with a
trailing cold front that will sweep through friday morning. the
high temperature on friday will likely occur early in the day
in the 50s then slowly falling during the afternoon and evening.
windy weather is also expected friday into friday evening with
westerly winds 15 to 25 mph, gusts up to 40 mph possible.

key message 2...
the overall weather pattern will shift this weekend into early
next week back to an upper level trough over the great lakes and
northeastern u.s. the cold front that will sweep across the
region friday will bring temperatures back down to more
seasonable cold for mid to late february. the next potential
impactful weather will be with the upper level trough that
develops over the great lakes region this weekend. as colder air
returns over the great lakes this weekend, areas of light snow
from a weak low pressure system and scattered lake effect snow
showers will be very possible starting late saturday night and
linger through monday. light snowfall accumulations are
possible, especially for the snowbelt. high temperatures will
generally be in the 30s this weekend into early next week.
overnight low temps will be back down in the teens and 20s.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
a warm front lifting northward across the region today will become
stationary and settle just south of lake erie tonight, waving back
north through the day tomorrow. this will keep the area in a
relatively warm/moist regime, which will favor continued mvfr and
ifr conditions, with periods of showers through thursday. lifr
conditions are likely across the shore of lake erie, northwest pa,
and eastern oh wednesday and thursday, with an isolated thunderstorm
or two across western and southern oh thursday afternoon and
evening. southwest winds in the teens, gusting into the upper 20s,
are expected this afternoon across western oh, with winds becoming
light out of the southeast overnight into thursday morning.

outlook...conditions become more progressive on friday as a cold
front sweeps across the area. ifr/lifr conditions will persist ahead
of the front, quickly becoming vfr behind the front. non-vfr
conditions will return saturday afternoon/evening, and continue
through the weekend. snow is expected saturday night through sunday,
with non-vfr conditions monday.

&&

.marine...
movement of the ice fields on lake erie is expected to continue
today as with southwesterly winds 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots
this afternoon. a warm front will lift across the lake today, becoming
stationary south of the lake overnight. ice has been weakening due to
warm temperatures, and ice floes may block or close shipping channels.
winds are expected to decrease this evening, but will return out of the
east thursday. east-southeasterly winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots
on thursday night, becoming southwesterly at 30 knots with the passage of
a cold front on friday. strong winds with the front may loosen or move
fast ice west of the lake erie islands, while northwesterly winds this
weekend may push ice back towards the lakeshore.

people are urged to stay off the lake erie ice this week! ice floes
are likely and may strand people venturing out on the ice, which may
break away from shore or the lake erie islands.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

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273
fxus63 kiwx 181937
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
237 pm est wed feb 18 2026

.key messages...

- highs in the 60s on thursday are within 5 degrees of record
levels.

- thunderstorms will be possible on thursday. a marginal risk
for severe weather exists mainly during the later afternoon on
into the evening with gusty winds, hail, and a tornado as the
main threats.

- cooler air arrives friday with snow becoming more likely,
especially by sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 228 pm est wed feb 18 2026

within this -pna pattern of a trough in the west and a ridge in the
east, the sensible weather is warmer temps along with waves ejecting
at some trajectory towards the upper mississippi valley and lower
great lakes area. after the morning rain, the column looks to dry
out with big changes coming as 50 degree dew points this morning
drop to the 30s this evening. as this happens, gradient weakens this
afternoon and the mixing height struggles to get much higher than
850 mb and this keeps breezy gusts below 30 kts. this is still
enough to dry out grasses above the ground and potentially get to
leaves on ground. as such, cannot completely rule out a grassy fire
scenario, but snowmelt and the morning rain may be able to keep the
ground somewhat wet yet.

as an upper low moves into the upper mississippi valley and northern
plains/northern great lakes area tonight, another surface low ejects
out of the rockies and into the central plains tomorrow morning and
reaches central il by thursday evening. at the same time, a slow
eastward meandering cold front looks to stall around the us-24 area
this evening. as that surface low approaches, it may be able to
shove the boundary northward thursday am. an initial wave pushes
northward through the area thursday morning, and initially, it
looked like this may be what initiates convection as it moves north
and east with the front. however, it now appears like a second wave
moving into the area during the afternoon/evening may be the main
forcing for the event and could set off some thunderstorms at that
point. instability appears to be the limiting factor for this setup
as morning convection could leave behind debris clouds and push any
outflow boundaries south, stunting low level instability generation.
the cold front waits until thursday night to move through so shower
and thunderstorm generation are still possible, but by this
point, instability would likely be worked over. thursday`s
highs look to be in the 50s and 60s, but would trend downward
for friday, with highs in the 40s more likely by then. rain
would be finishing up north of us-6 as the main shortwave
associated with the deepening low pressure system finally moves
into the eastern great lakes by friday afternoon/evening.

between friday and saturday, the aforementioned trough over the
western conus translates eastward and upper trajectories take a more
southward storm track allowing cold air to come in on the backside
of the eastward-moving trough. this allows for negative 850 mb
temperatures to arrive in the area, making it more conducive for the
arrival of snow. there could be some lake enhancement with this, but
it appears to be forced mainly by a trough coming down on the
western side of an upper low east of the great lakes without a
vigorous shortwave in the vicinity of lake mi, limiting snow
output. temperatures also look to be in the low to potentially
mid 30s, which causes wet snow ratios. even still, models do
have time periods where lake enhanced inversion creep up to 5
to 6 kft, which may allow for an area of advisory level snow.
lake enhancement lets up later monday/monday night as high
pressure and mid level ridging finally works its way into the
area. temperatures look to creep back up by midweek next week
as waa takes over. next system arrives during the tue/wed time
frame.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1232 pm est wed feb 18 2026

area of low level lift and associated showers/isolated storms
has shifted well east of both sites, which are now firmly
entrenched in the warm sector of the approaching system. wind
gusts of 25 to locally 35 kts will persist through the afternoon
before diminishing. a further increase in low level moisture and
a stalled weak boundary may allow for the development of some
stratus/fog at both sites (kfwa having the best shot) overnight.
will maintain previous tempos to handle for now, but not
expecting widespread issues.

focus then becomes chances for showers and a few storms ahead of
the main trough and front which will impact the area outside of
the current forecast period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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202
fxus63 kdtx 182025
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
325 pm est wed feb 18 2026

.key messages...

- mild temperatures persist through thursday.

- renewed chance for rain late thursday into friday morning, with
snow shower chances by friday afternoon or evening.

- southwest winds of 35 to 40 mph may be possible friday afternoon
across portions of southeast michigan.

- light snow chances for southeast michigan late sunday and monday.

&&

.discussion...

the warm sector to the 998mb surface low near minneapolis mn has
been in place today across southeast michigan. stubborn near surface
stratus below 1.0 kft agl has provided mixed results on the surface
temperature response thus far. an impulse tied to another embedded
500 mb vorticity maximum is expected to push across all of the cwa
between 21-00z leading to a total occlusion. forecast soundings and
plan view perspective of moisture suggests that a reintroduction of
moisture at or around 4.0 kft agl could result in some additional
mucape (upwards of 500 j/kg) and a subsequent convective shower or
thunder potential in the 23-01z timeframe. confidence is very low as
this moisture/saturation is suggested within a layer that will be
very dry from active subsidence in the midlevels. there are
indications that capping and cin will persist outside of deeper
sustained lift. introduced a low chance pop 30% for areas north of
metro detroit around 00z this evening. if a deeper convective cell
is able to develop lightning and small hail would be a possibility.
high relative humidity late tonight supports a mention of fog in the
forecast.

consensus of forecast data shows the next surface low tracking
through northern illinois and southern wisconsin late thursday with
very strong shortwave/absolute vorticity deepening over southern
lower michigan friday. orientation of the occluded front with
trajectory of the inbound vort max suggests that best thermal
advections and thetae support will occur across the northern cwa and
to points eastward. periods of warm/thetae advection with
frontogenesis is set for midday thursday into thursday night. latest
nbm 5.0 qmd shows relatively modest qpf amounts with higher variance
for the thu/fri system with the 25th percentile between 0.1 to 0.3
inch and the 75th percentile at an 0.8 to 0.4 of inch. with better
frontal forcing, the tri cities region may observe the highest
precipitation amounts. the forecasted trajectory of the vorticity
maximum and mean flow brings strong southwest winds to southeast
michigan during the daytime friday. current data suggests frequent
winds gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible late morning through
the late afternoon friday over the southern forecast area.

latest indications are the last of any occlusion and weak low
pressure circulation will be swept out of the area on sunday. return
of colder air increases the potential for ice nucleation and light
snow. the current forecast has daytime temperatures sunday in the
lower to middle 30s. model data suggests that southwesterly flow
will return to the region by the end of the period tuesday. given
the ice covered lakes wind direction will make all of the
difference on the temperature recovery.

&&

.marine...

areas of locally dense marine fog will persist through this evening
and portions of the overnight hours as drier air struggles to become
established over the central great lakes. winds decrease a bit
tonight, veering southeasterly with slower speeds over lake st.
clair and western erie, compared to the huron basin. the current
gale warning north of sturgeon point will expire on time as the low-
level jet axis lifts into the northern great lakes. a brief lull in
dynamics ensues thursday as competing systems interface between the
eastern plains and upper midwest. this favors a brief period of
headline-free conditions. however, an accelerated low-level jet (+40
knots) is expected to return for the northern half of lake huron on
friday as the eastern plains wave deepens and ejects across lower
michigan. high enough confidence exists in an additional round of
gusts to gales, therefore a gale watch has been issued for lhz361
and lhz362. additionally, this system will produce more rounds of
rain, and even some snow for the northern waterways.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1223 pm est wed feb 18 2026

aviation...

warm frontal boundary is currently arced from grand rapids-lansing-
monroe at the start of the new forecast period with associated
showers pushing into canada. while the ene flow off the lakes
provides some inhibition for the front lifting deeper into se mi,
expectation remains that the front will push across most of the
terminals early this afternoon. mbs holds on the fringe of the front
with model trends favoring it stalling overhead or south maintaining
easterly winds and lower mvfr cloud cover into the evening.
satellite has shown healthy clearing post-front as drier air and
subsidence follow supporting a few hours of bkn mvfr ceilings
turning clear or mostly clear going into tonight. main forecast
attention turns to fog potential tonight into thursday morning.
maintained inherited vsby restrictions however did hedge towards
denser fog towards the detroit terminals given the light southeast
flow being favorable to draw in fog off lakes erie/st clair.

for dtw... lifr ceilings/visibilities currently in place as the
frontal boundary resides just south of the airport here at midday.
this low cloud/fog should rapidly trend towards broken 1-2kft cloud
and dissipating fog within the first hour or two of the afternoon as
the front pushes north. drier air following supports vfr by late
afternoon-evening. potential is increasing for fog tonight into
thursday morning due to light winds off the frozen lakes st clair
and erie.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below 1/2sm this
afternoon. moderate after 06z tonight.

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet through first half of the
afternoon, low by early evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz361-362.

gale watch from late thursday night through friday afternoon for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......kgk
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.