Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 180443
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1143 pm est sat jan 17 2026

.what has changed...
forecast confidence continues to increase that lake-effect snow
will develop downwind of lake erie tonight, become significant
and oscillate on sunday through at least tuesday, and primarily
impact portions of western ny. however, what remains much more
uncertain is whether the lake-effect snow will shift into
northwest pa and far-northeast oh for a relatively prolonged
period of time and yield at least advisory-criteria snow
accumulations. this uncertainty precluded the issuance of a
winter storm watch for any of our snowbelt counties with this
forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) light snow showers may persist through this early evening.

2) below-normal temperatures are expected tonight through the
upcoming week with dangerous wind chills of -10 to -20 possible
monday into tuesday.

3) lake-effect snow develops downwind of lake erie tonight
periodically impacting the primary snowbelt of northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania sunday night and through the week.

4) outside the lake-effect snow, periodic accumulating snow
should impact our region through the upcoming week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a few light snow showers will be possible for the next few
hours this evening and will be associated with convergence/moist
ascent along the upper-reaches of the front. a light dusting of
snow is possible but otherwise no additional accumulations are
expected.

key message 2...
behind today`s cold front passage, primarily below-normal
temperatures are expected tonight through saturday, january 24th
a net and deep troughing aloft, associated with an unusually-
cold air mass, becomes established over eastern canada and
impacts the eastern united states during the bulk of the next
seven days. at the surface, our cwa is expected to primarily
reside in the cold sector based on the latest projected mid
latitude cyclone track. a reinforcing arctic front should sweep
e`ward through our region on monday before a warm front sweeps
ne`ward through our region tuesday night. prior to the warm
front passage, overnight lows are expected to be near 10f to 15f
around daybreak sunday and monday, respectively, near 0f to 5f
around daybreak tuesday, and bottom-out near 5f to 10f tuesday
evening, before the warm front ushers-in a warmer air mass
originating over the gulf. minimum wind chills should be mainly
in the 0f to -10f range tonight through tuesday night, but the
coldest minimum wind chills (-10f to -20f) are expected around
daybreak tuesday and should eventually prompt the issuance of a cold
weather advisory. as for daily daytime high temperatures, those
should reach the 15f to 25f range sunday and monday respectively,
and only the 10f to 20f range tuesday.

on wednesday, low-level waa in the warm sector should contribute
to highs reaching the lower to mid 30`s before a strong cold
front sweeps se`ward across our cwa wednesday afternoon and
evening. net low-level caa behind the front is expected through
the end of next week and contribute to below-normal temperatures
wednesday night through saturday, january 24th. additional sub-
zero wind chills are possible, especially around daybreak
friday.

key message 3...
lake-effect snow (les) should develop over and downwind of the
~1c ice-free waters of lake erie tonight, especially after
midnight, as 850 mb temperatures tumble to near -16c behind the
cold front. however, the les is expected to be light, due in
part to limited moisture between 850 and 700 mb, and primarily
impact portions of western ny due to a sw`erly mean low-level
flow. however, these light les showers may skirt the lakeshore
at times in our cwa, east of cleveland, and yield snow
accumulations less than one inch.

during the daylight hours of sunday through the daylight hours
of tuesday, the mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist
air over the relatively-warm, ice-free lake waters should vary
between mainly sw`erly and wsw`erly as multiple shortwave
troughs traverse the lake erie region generally from west to
east, 850 mb temperatures waver between -15c and -22c amidst
greater/deeper low-level moisture, which will yield greater
lake-induced instability and likely yield a strong lake-induced
thermal surface trough over the ice-free lake waters, which
should keep the mean low-level flow at least somewhat backed.
thus, steadier to heavy les is expected to primarily impact
portions of western ny during the aforementioned time period.
however, during monday through monday evening, the above-
mentioned arctic front passage and attendant shortwave trough
passage should allow mean low-level flow to veer to w`erly for a
time and allow les to impact far-ne oh and nw pa for at least
several hours. as a result, our latest official snowfall
forecast calls for 1-5" of fresh les accumulation along/near the
lakeshore from lake county, oh through erie county, pa between
7 am sunday and 7 pm tuesday. we will continue to monitor trends
in nwp model guidance closely.

the thermodynamic environment should remain favorable, overall,
for additional lake erie les tuesday night through this
saturday. however, as the warm sector briefly overspreads the
lake erie region overnight tuesday night into wednesday, there
should be a brief hiatus from the les as ice-free lake surface
to 850 mb temperature differences shrink to less than 13c for a
time. exact mean low-level flow direction and les placement,
intensity, and amounts are less certain tuesday night through
this saturday, but the more-reliable gem and ecmwf models
suggest shortwave trough passages will be accompanied by mean
low-level flow varying between mainly sw`erly and w`erly. thus,
les may impact our primary snowbelt counties and vicinity at
times. note: surface winds over lake erie should remain strong
enough through the upcoming week to prevent the lake from
freezing-over completely.

key message 4...
outside of the les, periods of widespread snow should impact our
region sunday night into monday due to low-level convergence
and moist ascent along the arctic front and moist isentropic
ascent aloft, ahead of the accompanying shortwave trough axis.
this widespread snow should total 2" or less. additional periods
of widespread snow, outside the aforementioned les, should
impact northern oh and nw pa tuesday night through saturday due
to moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes, moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front
tuesday night, and low-level convergence/moist ascent along
wednesday`s cold front. additional snow accumulations should
occur, but exact amounts are uncertain at this juncture.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
a stratus deck with ceilings around 2-5 kft lingers across much
of the area, generally along and east of i-77. a few light snow
showers may be possible underneath this stratus, mainly in the
far eastern portion of eastern ohio and into northwest
pennsylvania. dry air builds in and should see stratus dissipate
by sunrise sunday morning.

a low pressure system moves into the western and northern great
lakes by sunday afternoon, with cloud cover increasing and
ceilings lowering sunday night, followed by snow from west to
east after 03z. mvfr ceilings and ifr visibilities are expected.

southwest winds around 10 knots continue through the taf period,
with occasional gusts to 20 knots.

outlook...light snow expected areawide sunday night into
monday with lake effect snow across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania monday night into tuesday. light snow expected
wednesday, followed by lake effect snow across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
strong west-southwest winds of 20-30kt will continue through this
evening behind a cold front. small craft advisories remain posted
for central and eastern nearshore zones where there is less ice.
also added a low water advisory for the western basin until 1 am/6z
sunday, as the water level at toledo quickly dropped to 7 inches
below low water datum this afternoon with brisk west-southwest winds
continuing through the evening, offering potential for the level to
dip below the critical mark of 9 inches below datum. some freezing
spray is likely tonight into sunday, with a brief window where heavy
freezing spray is possible in the central basin late tonight into
early sunday. the expected coverage and duration of heavy freezing
spray is too low to warrant a heavy freezing spray warning at this
time, though mariners should plan on at least some freezing spray.

winds remain southwest overnight into sunday though will subside
slightly to 15-25 knots. an arctic cold front will cross the lake on
monday as deepening low pressure tracks through the northern great
lakes and into ontario and quebec. south-southwest winds ahead of
the front will ramp up to 20-30kt late sunday night, shifting west-
southwest and increasing to 30-40kt with gusts to 40-50kt on monday
behind the front. posted a gale watch for the entire lake starting
at 8 am/12z monday, expiring at 8 pm/0z across the western basin and
1 am/6z tuesday elsewhere. the watch is a bit more marginal across
the western basin, though it will be close either way. sustained
winds to 40kt with gusts of 45-50kt are looking increasingly likely
across the central and eastern basin, with peak wave heights where
open waters remain of up to 15 feet towards the east end. heavy
freezing spray warnings will be needed to start the week in
conjunction with the gale, and low water issues are likely on
the west end. the next system will move through the great lakes
wednesday into thursday with another period of elevated winds.

ice cover is expected to expand east out of the western basin over
the next several days given very cold temperatures. the gale-force
winds expected on monday will likely cause significant drifting of
ice on the lake. rapid ice development, and shifting of existing
ice, may pose navigational difficulties on the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...low water advisory until 1 am est sunday for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale watch from monday morning through monday evening for
lez142>144-162>164.
gale watch from monday morning through late monday night for
lez145>149-165>169.
small craft advisory until 7 am est monday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...saunders
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1220 am est sun jan 18 2026

.key messages...
- lake effect snow showers increase this evening across
southwest lower michigan and continue through early sunday
morning. light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible.

- subzero single digit wind chills expected tonight, and
dangerously cold wind chills of 10 to 20 below sunday night
and monday night.

- another system brings some light system snow to the area along
with a prolonged period of lake effect snow showers mainly
along and north of the toll road. moderate snow accumulations
are likely from sunday evening through early tuesday morning
for southwest lower michigan.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 pm est sat jan 17 2026

a complex upper level wave pattern continues across central conus
this afternoon with a large scale trough extending from the
central/northern plains into the eastern great lakes. meanwhile, an
upper low level is beginning to shift east-southeast across the quad
cities vicinity. some drier mid level air advected into the local
area this morning which has significantly reduced moisture depths.
this limited moisture will limit any precip for remainder of the
afternoon to some patchy flurries, particularly southeast third of
the area which is in closer proximity to sheared vort max associated
the stronger upper level jet with the larger scale trough. the more
favorable and deeper moisture supporting more impactful snowfall
this afternoon has persisted to the north of the quad cities
upper low from central iowa into east central wisconsin. as this
upper low shifts east tonight over central indiana, the
deformation zone of this system will sink southeast along with
some mid level moisture recovery that should support some
scattered snow showers/flurries moving into nw in/sw lower
michigan. this evolution will also set the stage for renewed
lake effect snow showers particularly across berrien/cass
counties mi where west/southwest flow trajectories will be more
favorable.

lake effect parameters are not overly favorable tonight given
fairly shallow based inversion, limited fetch, and some drying
of upper portions of dgz toward sunday morning. an inch or two
seems possible across southwest lower michigan, with some
slightly higher amounts a possibility across northern berrien
county given fetch considerations. some drifting snow concerns
are possible across berrien county as modified flow off lake
michigan should provide slightly warmer conditions, better
mixing, and greater likelihood of maintaining some gusts to 20
to 25 mph at times through the overnight. otherwise tonight, it
will be quite cold although temperature drops will be somewhat
mitigated by maintenance of some southerly flow tonight. min
wind chills early sunday morning are expected to range from 5
below to 5 above.

low level flow should tend to back by midday sunday in response to
low level troughing moving across the mid ms valley downstream
of next upper level short wave. this will allow for diminishment
of lake effect snow showers, but will allow for some modest
increase in mid level mixing ratios during the afternoon. this
next upper trough passage will bring bitter cold air into the
region sunday night into monday, along with a potential of a
brief window of light system snow given the deeper moisture
profiles (system snow generally an inch or less). of greater
significance will be the renewed lake effect snow shower
development. westerly fetch setup once again could bring several
inches of snow accumulation over a 36 hour period from sunday
evening through early tuesday morning generally along and north
of the toll road, with greatest amounts across southwest lower
michigan. inversion heights will be more substantial than
tonight`s setup, with guidance progs suggesting 6- 8k foot
inversion heights. this setup does look more prolonged given
tendency for low level troughing to lag behind synoptically
induced trough due to potential collective response from warmer
great lakes. this also could be a setup where the magnitude of
low level cold air mass moving into great lakes sets up quite a
low level thermal ribbon between west side of lake michigan and
the thermally modified, warmer eastern shoreline. sometimes in
these setups frictional convergence in wind along the eastern
shoreline can interact with this enhanced baroclinicity to
provide some low level fgen boost briefly and some stronger
banding despite westerly fetch. overall this still looks to be
most likely a prolonged advisory situation sunday evening into
early tuesday morning at this forecast distance, but combination
of snow/wind/cold could provide some moderate impacts for
southwest lower michigan that will need to be considered.

for most, the big story for late sunday into tuesday will be the
dangerous cold conditions. as this arctic airmass begins to move in
late sunday night, the combination of gusty post-frontal winds and
falling temps could produce min wind chills near advisory criteria.
monday night will feature weaker winds, but colder temps near 0 that
should push wind chills more solidly into advisory criteria.

the latter portions of next week still look to be potentially active
as 490dm 500 mb low sinks across southeast canada while larger scale
flow deamplifies across conus. this pattern should setup strong
baroclinicity across central conus with a conducive upper
pattern for several upstream waves to interact with this strong
baroclinic zone for additional periods of snow and intrusions
of colder air to provide below normal temps on the whole for the
long term period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1220 am est sun jan 18 2026

a very weak shortwave will pass through the region this morning.
a few lake enhanced flurries are possible at ksbn over the next
3-5 hours along with some brief 2 kft stratus at both terminals
but confidence in impacts is not high. otherwise vfr will
persist through the day until a much stronger shortwave arrives
overnight. ifr visibilities appear likely within light snow
spreading across the entire area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lmz043-046.
gale watch from late tonight through monday evening for lmz043-
046.
heavy freezing spray watch from late tonight through monday
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1051 pm est sat jan 17 2026

.key messages...

- occasional snow showers this weekend through early next week with
light accumulations. the most widespread snow shower activity will
be sunday night into monday, when 1-3" inches is expected.

- frigid and blustery conditions monday with potential for snow
squalls and winds gusting 30-40 mph.

- dangerously cold wind chills of -5 to -15f monday night/tuesday
morning.

- another light round of snow likely on wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

cold cyclonic flow due to large scale troughing will keep the
environment conducive for lake effect/enhanced clouds throughout the
period. forecast soundings show a substantial midlevel inversion
with a base down to the 4.0 to 5.0 kft agl level. satellite trends
support moisture ducting below this inversion to the south towards
the detroit terminals. went decidedly more pessimistic with ceilings
for the southern forecast area with low vfr tonight it remains
possible that moisture/thetae advection in the 1.5 to 3.0 kft agl
layer could contribute to a significant amount of mvfr stratus
sunday. the rap is very bullish and does have agreement with the
nam. precipitation is still timed to hold off until after 00z 12/19.

for dtw...current satellite trends support vfr ceilings moving into
dtw. low confidence in ceiling heights but enough model support for
mvfr after daybreak sunday. light snow is expected to hold off until
sunday evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 937 pm est sat jan 17 2026

update...

no critical changes are needed for the gridded database or the
messaging this evening. weak 1000-850mb convergence downwind of lake
michigan has been producing flurries and light snow over the tri
cities and the thumb. based on traffic data there has not been much
consequence to travel.

prev discussion...
issued at 245 pm est sat jan 17 2026

discussion...

upper level ridge (586 dam at 500 mb) just offshore of british
columbia/pacific northwest will persist through the weekend and then
slowly break down next week. this amplified pattern will allow
several shots of arctic air to spill into the great lakes region,
with the notable shot of cold air arriving on monday. question then
becomes how much will the unfrozen lake michigan modify the airmass,
as it looks like there will be enough moisture flux to support
clouds and snow showers monday evening/night with the persist
westerly flow, which likely holds temps mainly above zero and wind
chills above 15 below for tuesday morning. 850 mb temps progged to
bottom out and hold in the -23 to -25 c range.

today`s cold shot (-21 c at 850 mb) over the midwest will passing
south through the ohio valley this evening/tonight. tightening
baroclinic zone over lower michigan with dry/arctic air spilling
across the southern michigan up to the m-59 corridor tonight with
southwest low level winds. sufficient cold air, convergence, and
moisture (925-850 mb specific humidity around 1.75 g/kg over central
lower michigan to saginaw bay) to support continued lake enhanced
light snow shower activity to persist across tri-cities regions and
locations north of i-69. accumulations of a dusting to one inch as
any forcing intersecting the dgz is expected to be short lived.

the low level forcing with the arctic front for the end of the
weekend on the other hand, will reside mostly in the dgz. steep low
level lapse rates as we head into monday also generates modest cape,
supportive of snow squalls as the top of the boundary layer taps
into stronger winds of 40+ knots. inversion heights aoa 8 kft and
model consensus indicating 24 hr qpf around tenth of an inch sunday
night-monday supports 1-3 inches of snowfall with good snow to
liquid ratios (20 to 25:1) anticipated. narrow/small scale-
convective elements also likely not being picked up properly by bulk
of the solutions, which may support a few localized higher amounts
as well. local probabilistic guidance and euro ensembles both
indicating peak wind gusts of 35-40 mph during the day, and a winter
weather advisory may have to be considered to capture the snow and
wind. winds and snow shower coverage will gradually wane as we head
into monday evening as subsidence behind the exiting 700 mb
trough/cold pool (-30 c) kicks in. none- the-less, there is a good
signal (925 mb omega) for a prolong lake effect band to set up in the
vicinity of the m-59 corridor, possibly south to the i-94 corridor,
per 12z nam. another very narrow/highly localized strip of 1-3" is in
play, although tough to gauge the impacts of the very dry associated
with the arctic airmass and survival of the band this far east.
surface dew pts outside of the lake plume will be aob zero, which
sets the stage for subzero lows. ultimately, will count on surface
winds and enough clouds to keep temps in zero to 5 degree range for
now, with minimum wind chills of
-10 to -15 f.

height rises and return southwest flow around high pressure over the
mid atlantic supports temps steady or actually rising tuesday night
before yet another clipper brings light snow on wednesday. cold air
behind this system for wednesday evening into thursday looks
slightly warmer compared to monday.

marine...

small craft advisories remain in effect around the tip of the thumb
through tonight due to the combination of stronger (30kt) west-
southwest winds and subsequent waves. this flow has also led to
falling water levels in the western erie basin warranting a short-
fused low water advisory through this evening. gradient only
partially slackens sunday nudging southwesterly winds down closer to
20-25kts. next clipper tracks into the northern great lakes latter
half of sunday deepening as it slides into eastern ontario.
associated arctic front drops across the central great lakes monday
afternoon ushering in the coldest airmass of the winter season thus
far. there is a 3-5 hour period along/following the frontal passage
for northwesterly gusts to reach gales over at least a portion of the
region tied to a 40-45kt llj wrapping around the base of the low.
exact placement of this feature isn`t particularly well defined in
current models however is generally favored to set over the southern
half of the region. gale watches are in effect from the central
waters of lake huron down to lake erie as a result. areas of
moderate to heavy freezing spray also likely in this timeframe.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from monday morning through monday evening for lhz362-
363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 am est sunday for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...gale watch from monday morning through monday evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale watch from monday morning through monday evening for lez444.

low water advisory until 1 am est sunday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
update.......cb
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.