Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 180819
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
319 am est wed feb 18 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes at the moment. the potential for snow
accumulations across parts of the area during the second half of
the weekend into monday will be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.key messages...
1) above average temperatures expected through friday with periodic
rain showers during that time frame. rivers will continue to be
monitored for rises due to ice jam potential.

2) seasonable temperatures expected this weekend through early next
week with potential for snow showers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front has started to lift through the western portion of the
area early this morning and will continue to push northward. rain
showers can be seen along the front due to isentropic lift, though
the showers currently are fairly light and should push out to the
east into pennsylvania before sunrise. there will be a few hour
period where it will be dry before the cold front moves through this
afternoon and early evening. qpf for the day has gone down over the
past few forecast runs as the southern extent of the precipitation
was in question. currently, most of the area will receive around a
tenth to two tenth of rain with higher amounts in northeastern ohio
and northwestern pennsylvania of two to four tenths. there will be
some potential for those higher amounts to reach half an inch, but
those will tend to be localized. additionally, there will be a bit of
instability to accompany the showers and along the cold front to
where a rumble of thunder or two will be possible.

with the passing warm front, temperatures have stayed in the mid to
upper 40s and will rise up into the mid to upper 50s with areas in
the west and southwest of the cwa reaching into the 60s. with the
rising temperatures and the rainfall expected today, there could be
a minor response in rivers and streams across the region. localized
ice jams will also be possible as ice along rivers has begun to
break apart. potential will span the next few days before
temperatures begin to moderate and rain changes over to snow this
weekend. will need to continue to monitor the rivers for any
response.

a llj of 30 to 50 knots will move over the region throughout the day
today that will support strong wind gusts at the surface. winds will
peak around the time of the cold front passage this afternoon with
gusts 20 to 30 mph and subside into the evening. there will be
another chance for stronger winds on friday as a more potent low
pressure system moves into the great lakes region where wind gusts
of over 30 mph will be possible.

another chance for rain returns on friday as a low pressure system
lifts out of the mid-mississippi valley into the great lakes region.
a warm front will pass through the region late thursday night into
early friday morning that will have some instability along with it,
so a few thunderstorms could be possible. along with the
instability, there will be modest shear ahead of the front that
may support stronger wind gusts as thunderstorms move into the
region, though the greatest chance for this will be in the
southwestern portion of the cwa. instability should wane with
the passing, occluding cold front early friday morning.


key message 2...
behind the cold front on friday, temperatures will begin to moderate
to a more seasonable levels as colder air moves in from the
northwest. highs on saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s and
drop down into the mid 30s on sunday. the trend will continue into
early next week with highs near 30 across the region.

low pressure will track to the south of the region this weekend as
an upper level trough moves into the great lakes. this will bring
the potential for precipitation to the region sunday into early next
week. with the colder air moving in, accumulating snow showers will
be possible. there will be the potential, depending on how the low
to the south progresses, that some wet synoptic snow will fall
across the region. on the back side of the low, with the west to
northwesterly flow, lake enhanced snow showers will be possible that
could linger into early next week. ridging will begin to build in to
the region on monday that will push any remaining precipitation out
and dry weather is expected.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
a stationary front will linger over northern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania into wednesday with rain chances on
the increase over the next few hours. rain will be off and on
through around 18-20z depending on the terminal location, and
ceilings will go to ifr for a few hours during the precipitation.
expect visibilities to fluctuate in and out of rain. with low
pressure approaching from the west, the pressure gradient will
be on the increase, and winds will increase accordingly with
gusts out of the southwest to 30kts before tapering off after
03z thursday.

outlook...non-vfr conditions possible late thursday into friday
in rain showers.

&&

.marine...
movement of the ice fields on lake erie are possible today as
southwesterly winds ramp up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon as a
warm front lifts north across the lake. ice has been weakening due
to warm temperatures and ice floes may close open shipping channels,
along with ridging and rafting of the ice. winds are expected to
decrease fairly quickly this evening and then develop out of the
east by thursday. easterly winds increase to 10 to 20 knots on
thursday night and then veer to southwesterly at 30 knots with the
passage of a cold front on friday. the strong winds on friday may be
enough to losen or move the fast ice west of the lake erie islands.
later in the weekend winds shift to northwesterly at 15 to 25
knots and may push ice back towards the south shore of the lake.


people are urged to stay off the lake erie ice this week! ice floes
are likely and may strand people venturing out on the ice, which may
break away from shore or the lake erie islands.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...26
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 180558
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1258 am est wed feb 18 2026

.key messages...

- record to near record highs today and thursday

- isolated thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds possible
early this morning and again thursday afternoon and evening

- severe storms not expected, but gusty winds with storms likely

- local flooding not expected with antecedently dry ground
conditions and with fast-moving storms.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1249 am est wed feb 18 2026

a powerful mid level jet at 500 mb with a speed max close to 120
knots per gfs was approaching ca at the time of this writing. these
strong winds are expected to translate north as the upper trof along
the west coast amplifies. this scenario will cause surface moisture
to surge north downstream of the trof axis across the ohio river
wednesday night and thursday and ahead of a strong cold front.
unseasonably mild temperatures will rise well into the 60s with
record to near record highs today. record highs are 66 degrees at
south bend and 67 at ft wayne respectively. surface dew points
should rise into the 50s south of highway 30 (oxi[knox]-asw-fwa-
aoh). bufkit soundings support low-topped storms with low capes
(generally below 200 [20k feet]).

the front should race across the forecast area including northern
indiana late thursday night. conditions after midnight should have
stabilized somewhat from afternoon capes reaching close to 600 j/kg.
strong gusty winds are expected with the storms before much cooler
air spreads across the area early friday. at this time, severe
storms are not expected, but wind gusts to 50 mph are possible with
the strong storms ahead and along the front. the gfs has been
very consistent with the system including storms only producing
around a quarter of an inch of rain. this amount of rain appears
reasonable and on track given the environment and fast storm
track. the flood risk from storms appears extremely low given
the antecedently dry conditions and limited rainfall.

otherwise, much colder air will spread over the area friday and
prevail over the weekend. the gfs bufkit shows a shallow cold
layer with the base of the inversion under 5000 ft (850 mb).
given a west fetch, a limited residence time, a shallow
inversion and a deep subsidence area above the inversion,
limited to very limited lake effect snow amounts are expected.
current thinking is any lake effect snow impacts should be
minor.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1240 am est wed feb 18 2026

rain showers currently moving through the area in wake of a warm
frontal passage associated with isentropic upglide. this has
also brought mvfr cigs to both taf sites. periods of ifr
vsbys/cigs after about 08z wed through 15-17z wed along with
light showers of rain. wind shear will also be possible around
this time frame for both taf sites with southwesterly wind gusts
at the surface up to 30kts. after 15z for kfwa and 17z wed for
ksbn improvements in both cigs and vsbys will bring a return to
vfr conditions through the remainder of this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
458 am est wed feb 18 2026

.key messages...

- widespread precipitation this morning. an isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out.

- mild temperatures persist through thursday.

- renewed chance for rain late thursday into friday morning, with
snow shower chances by friday afternoon or evening.

&&

.discussion...

slow progression of an occluded low pressure system across mn has
brought multiple ribbons of precipitation to se mi tied to enhanced
system relative isentropic ascent in the mid-levels. these initial
bands will continue to progress northeastward through the mid-morning
hours, which will eventually give way to a more dynamically enhanced
second round, leading to some enhanced rainfall rates particularly
for the tri-cities and thumb. elongation of the jet stream into the
northern ohio river valley will help induce a stronger ageostrophic
response under enhanced upper-level divergence while a trialing
vorticity maximum rounds the base of the trough and pivots into se
mi, leading to the enhancement of rainfall rates. instability looks
to be mostly disjointed from precipitation, leading to lower end
chances for thunderstorms. however, cannot rule out some isolated
activity with mid-level lapse rates holding around 7c/km.

all rain to abruptly end through the late morning to early afternoon
as a prominent mid-level dry slot rapidly moves across the great
lakes with surface flow backing to the southwest in the wake of a
warm front. this front is projected to stall out across the cwa,
likely somewhere across the tri-cities and greater portion of the
thumb, and possibly stalling farther west across portions of
tuscola/lapeer/st. clair. temperature contrast will be stark on
either side of the stalled front, with highs making a push towards
60 (closer to the mi/oh border, where temperatures fail to push out
of the 40s north of the front. brief window for some late day mixing
also brings potential for gusts around 20-25 mph within the warm
sector this afternoon.

dry overnight and through tomorrow for most locations, with low-end
rain shower chances across southern michigan as a weak shortwave
clips the region. attention will then turn to a second low pressure
system which will develop on the lee of the central rockies thursday
morning before steering into lake huron and northern lower michigan
by friday, occluding over the great lakes. projected path of this
low will keep se mi within the warm sector, bringing renewed chances
for rain showers through the morning. cyclonic flow will wrap cold
air from the plains around the southern quadrant of this system,
which pending timing of this caa, could bring decreasing
temperatures through the afternoon, along with windy conditions as
stronger mixing depths interact with the llj aloft, bringing the
chance to see gusts 35-40 mph. additionally, wrap around moisture
with the cooler temperatures will bring some chances for snow
showers by the afternoon or evening.

colder temperatures take hold to start the early week period along
with some chances for snow showers derived from lake enhancement
under the greater trough structure.

&&

.marine...

a marine dense fog advisory remains in effect until later this
morning for southern lake huron and lake st. clair, in the absence
of meaningful drying mechanisms. winds mainly persist out of the
east with an approaching low pressure system, although the southern
waterways could flip southwesterly given other surface pressure
adjustments. an energetic low-level jet (+45 knots at 925 mb) is
moving overhead as the mature system tracks northeastward across
minnesota. this supports gusts to gales over the northern half of
the huron basin today. a gale warning remains in place until late
this afternoon, before the low-level jet axis lifts into the
northern great lakes. this system will also produce periods of
rainfall, possibly mixed with snow over the northern waterways.
can`t completely rule out a rumble of thunder further south. a brief
lull in dynamics ensues thursday, favoring headline-free conditions.
another period of elevated winds arrives friday with the next low
pressure system. potential continues to increase for an additional
round of gusts to gales across northern lake huron friday morning.

&&

.hydrology...

widespread rain this morning, the heaviest which will fall across
the tri-cities and thumb. rain to abruptly end by the late
morning to early afternoon, with rainfall totals ranging between a
half-inch up to below 1" north of i-69. for locations south,
rainfall totals hold to a half-inch or less, with amounts of a
quarter- inch or less closer to the mi/oh border. the rain will
occur on top of a melting snowpack that had a snow water
equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". the combination of
rain and snow melt on frozen ground may lead to rises on area
streams and rivers. ponding of water on roads is also possible,
especially where drains could be blocked by snow and/or winter
debris.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1207 am est wed feb 18 2026

aviation...

cigs/vsbys have become more chaotic the last few hours first looking
to trend more to a low stratus deck instead of dense fog, then cigs
rose to low vfr while vsbys remain ifr. with precipitation looming
in the next 1-2 hours, will try to add some detail/lower category
for the two main periods of rain that will pass through the region
early this morning and again late morning/early afternoon. some
guidance still suggests 1/4sm with the showers but several models
are showing some improvement from that. much drier air surges in for
the afternoon with a rapid response in cigs and vsbys.

for dtw...will continue to monitor cigs/vsbys as the bounce around a
bit over the next few hours. mainly mvfr with ifr/lifr potential
during periods of rain. best chance of first round of rain will be
07-10z with a second round between 14-17z. scattered showers
possible in between as well.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 200 ft and/or visibilities below 1/2sm
overnight and wednesday morning.

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and wednesday morning.

* high in precip type as all rain tonight.

* low in thunderstorms overnight and wednesday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for lhz421-422-
441>443-462>464.

gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz361-362.

lake st clair...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......kgk
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.