Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 292321
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
721 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) brief, scattered rain showers are expected tonight, followed
by quiet and near-normal temperatures friday and saturday.

2) scattered rain showers are expected next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front accompanied by rain showers will move southeast
across the area late this evening through tonight. it`ll be a
short window (generally between 22-05z), with showers lasting
no long er than an hour or two at any given location. thunder is
unlikely but can`t be ruled out in the toledo area and then
along the lakeshore, with a brief gust of wind mainly near the
lakeshore.

dry weather returns friday and saturday as high pressure build
back in across the region. slightly cooler, albeit still above
normal, with highs in the 60s friday and saturday behind the
cold front. chilly overnight lows friday night in the 40s for
most and the low to mid 30s in the higher terrain of northwest
pennsylvania.

key message 2...
as high pressure departs to the east, isolated, light rain
showers may accompany a warm front sunday night into monday. low
pressure and an upper-level low will build into the region
through midweek, with rain shower chances increase monday night
onward. above normal temperatures will remain in place, and in
fact will be well above normal tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with mainly vfr to persist
through the taf period. the latest radar reveals a line of rain
showers moving east through the area this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. light rain and/or virga is associated
with much of this activity, though some better returns and
perhaps a more steady rain is possible over the next couple of
hours out east, primarily impacting eri with mvfr or brief ifr
vsbys. low ceilings may linger behind the front into friday
morning at eri and potentially yng before improving to vfr by
late morning or early afternoon.

winds are shifting towards the west behind the cold front, 7 to
10 knots, while winds ahead of the front remain out of the
southwest, 7 to 10 knots. winds will continue to shift towards
the west, then north behind the front overnight into friday, 7
to 9 knots.

outlook...apart from low rain chances monday into tuesday,
mainly vfr expected through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
winds will become northwest this evening into tonight behind a
cold front. choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the
central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage through
early friday morning. as high pressure departs to the east,
light easterly winds (less than 10 knots) are expected friday
night into saturday, becoming southeast on sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...kahn
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 292216
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
616 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and isolated storms along and south of the
us 24 through mid evening.

- cooler this weekend but still above-normal temperatures to
closeout the month of october.

- 20 to 40% chance of showers on halloween, mainly west of the
i-69 corridor.

- active weather still looks likely later for the second half
of the workweek next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 153 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

cold frontal boundary currently draped from southwest to
northeast across the northwestern portions of the cwa. current
radar imagery, 2pm edt, does show some scattered rain showers
along it`s spine and look for some increase in activity as the
afternoon goes on and the front moves southeastward. by this
evening the rain showers should become less likely as the
diurnal surface heating decreases. not much in the form of
rainfall amounts is expected but a quick trace to a hundredth
or so will be the most likely outcome where the showers do
occur.

friday will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and cooler with a
more northerly surface flow in place behind the front and weak
synoptic ridging pushing through before a weak trough skirts the
western portions of the cwa on saturday which may bring a few
rain showers to the area. still thinking that any showers will
be light and should not really make a big impact on the
halloween activities. a few showers look to linger into sunday
but again amounts look very light especially with these
disturbances needing to moisten up the surface layer before any
precip can be realized at the surface.

the more impactful weather looks to occur next week, there is
still quite a bit of disagreement in the exact evolution and the
synoptic pattern will be fairly complicated with a split stream
with a southern and northern circulation. it does still appear
that both systems will phase late wednesday through thursday and
this looks to combine and develop a fairly deep trough
circulation over the great lakes region bringing much cooler air
associated with a strong cold front that looks to increase
chances of convection with possibly a strong to severe outcome.
this far out though and with the guidance still at odds this is
not a sure outcome but certainly something to watch in the
coming days when more details can be sorted out.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 616 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

a cold front will push south of kfwa shortly after issuance
bringing rain shower chances to an end. post-frontal, primarily
low vfr, cigs likely clear out of ksbn by 01z and kfwa by
03-04z with clear skies and light northerly winds to prevail
overnight. remaining vfr with light winds and some increase in
high clouds otherwise into tomorrow.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 292329
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
729 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. no severe weather is anticipated.

- dry this weekend with temperatures some 7 to 12 degrees above
normal.

- warm conditions with humidity will be possible early to middle
next week.

&&

.aviation...

departing cold front is drawing the narrow band of frontal moisture
out of the airspace, leaving behind clear skies and veering winds.
stratus plume noted over the upper peninsula expands south through
the overnight, and will brush the saginaw valley early friday
morning. this may initially allow mvfr restrictions to develop,
although clears out through the morning as mixing occurs. light
northwest flow then prevails for the day as high cloud streams in
from the west.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for cigs at or below 5000 ft through 02z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 324 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

discussion...

a surface cold front associated with the northeast canada low
pressure system will work through southeast michigan between 19-01z
today. moisture progs in the plan view continue to suggest that
deeper thetae content and saturation resides in an extremely narrow
ribbon that is only approximately a few tens of miles across. the
limited moisture will significantly limit the coverage of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. forecast soundings show residual stability
holding with the midlevel dry air only becoming conditionally
unstable with the arrival of the aforementioned moisture/saturation
between 3.0 and 10.0 kft agl. mucape is projected to reach 200 j/kg
mucape. a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms will be possible
before 01z.

strongly increasing anticyclonic flow trajectories with notable
anticyclonic hemispheric scale roll to the height field will lead to
very stable weather friday and saturday. high confidence that
surface ridging will hold on right through the weekend resulting in
dry weather. an inverted troughing feature into portions of northern
illinois and as close as the southern rim of lake michigan may
provide for a good amount of cloud immediately upstream and even
over southeast michigan saturday. incredible stretch of good autumn
weather continues with highs in the 60s through sunday, some 7 to 12
degrees above normal.

uncertainty increases for the beginning of next week with regards to
timing of shortwave energy. antecedent dry air will limit widespread
precipitation early monday as a secondary surge in warm air
advection occurs. by late monday and early tuesday, timing and
approach of the longwave trough suggests southerly flow will be on
the increase as well as the low level jet. clouds are undoubtedly a
huge influence on temperatures but given projections of the ridge
structure, highs reaching 70 early next week is a definite
possibility. the current forecast begins to ramp up pops early
tuesday and that seems adequate. no significant wind episode is
anticipated in the next 7 days.

marine...

wind direction will veer from west-southwest to northwest in the
wake of a cold front. mixing depths will improve behind the front
and will mix down some of the stronger air aloft, producing wind
gusts around 20 to 25 knots across lake huron tonight and through
tomorrow. localized gust potential around 30 knots will be possible
across north and north-central lake huron where fetch is more
favorable. high pressure to then build in friday and saturday across
the great lakes which will rapidly reduce wind speeds tomorrow
evening, leading to light winds for the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.