Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
871
fxus61 kcle 282300
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
700 pm edt sun jun 28 2026

.what has changed...
a heat advisory has been issued for the ohio counties as heat
indices will reach above 100 degrees starting monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) hot and humid conditions are expected across the region this week.

2) low chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow,
then again on friday as the surface high pressure breaks down.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will begin to build to the southeast as upper level
ridging moves into the eastern half of conus. concurrently, a low
pressure system will move north across the great plains dragging a
warm front through the region during the day tomorrow. this will
bring much warmer and humid air in from the west-southwest and
temperatures will begin to rise well above average starting
tomorrow. the warm front will only clear the western counties in
ohio by tomorrow evening, and heat indices will rise as a result and
exceed 100 degrees. a heat advisory has been issued for the i-75
corridor starting noon tomorrow. hot and humid conditions will
spread to the remainder of the area as the warm front pushes north
monday evening. an additional heat advisory has been issued for the
rest of northern ohio starting at noon on tuesday to account for
this increased temperatures and heat indices. both heat advisories
will run through thursday evening, though hot and humid conditions
may last into the weekend with lower confidence. heat indices will
be the highest wednesday and thursday as they approach 105, with
areas out west potentially eclipsing that mark. an upgrade to an
extreme heat warning may be needed for at least the i-75 corridor
during that time period. to go along with the daytime heat,
overnight lows will be warm as well. temperatures will only drop
down into the mid to upper 70s this week, providing little relief to
to the heat. as mentioned above, confidence in heat related
headlines decreases with the high pressure breaking down into the
weekend.

key message 2...
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along a
stationary boundary that is located across the ohio valley. the best
chance for any showers would be in eastern ohio as the drift
northward. additionally, showers and possible in northeastern ohio
and northwestern pennsylvania as well with interaction with the lake
breeze. the boundary will move to the south this evening and
precipitation chances will decrease. tomorrow, as the warm front
pushes north, there is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms
across northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania in the late
evening to early morning on tuesday.

late in the week the upper level ridge will begin to break down and
the surface high will weaken. a few long range models depict a
shortwave moving through the region on friday that could bring
showers and thunderstorms back to the area. will need to monitor how
this unfolds throughout the week as there could be potential for
organized thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
widespread vfr conditions will diminish for many terminals
tonight to mvfr and possible ifr and clearing skies, low level
moisture, and weak winds result in patchy fog developing. most
terminals will reach these diminished conditions gradually
beginning at 06z monday and peaking near 10z. the only
terminals likely not impacted by these diminished conditions
will be keri and ktol, although confidence in diminish
visibilities at kfdy remains low so opted to use tempo for 4sm
but will have to monitor fog development. any diminished
visibilities should improve after sunrise tomorrow, eventually
all returning to vfr by mid to late morning. winds overnight
will be light and variable before become sustained from the
southwest at 5-10 knots. a lake breeze is expected to develop
and possibly impact kcle and keri monday afternoon.

outlook...mainly vfr conditions expected to persist as high
pressure influences the area.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will persist over the area into monday before a
warm front begins to lift north across the basin. light
northeast winds this evening will gradually veer to become
south-southwesterly at 5-10 knots monday night. once the warm
front fully lifts north, high pressure will build over the
eastern us and persist into at least friday. southwest winds of
5-10 knots will be maintained through that period.

&&

.climate...
hotter and more humid weather is expected this monday through friday.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon monday to 8 pm edt thursday for ohz003-
006-017.
heat advisory from noon tuesday to 8 pm edt thursday for
ohz007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
852
fxus63 kiwx 282352
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
752 pm edt sun jun 28 2026

.key messages...

- extreme heat warning in effect monday afternoon into thursday
evening for an extended period of high heat indices and
limited nighttime cooling.

- heat may remain a concern friday, but chances for showers and
thunderstorms begin to increase resulting in lower confidence
on the amount of impacts.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 238 pm edt sun jun 28 2026

bluf...after extensive collaboration with surrounding offices, we
have decided to upgrade to an extreme heat warning for the same
valid period as the watch. will break down the pros and cons
shortly. we want to reiterate that regardless of the type of heat
related headline, they all convey the same thing...a focus on the
impacts of the heat to everyone. in addition to sensitive
populations, even those that routinely work outside or have a/c will
be impacted

warming today has been somewhat limited by high clouds blowoff from
a persistent mcs to our west as well as some cu popping here and
there across the area. radar and satellite data showing the complex
finally beginning to weaken. while the remnants could bring a quick
shower to northern portions of the area later this afternoon or
early evening models generally lean toward no impacts so pops will
be left below 15%. additional upstream complex are expected over the
next day or 2, but should remain well north of the forecast area.

we then turn our attention to the bigger story of the dramatic
arrival of summer and extended period of increased heat and
humidity. a mixture of headlines surround us which may pose
challenges to our media partners in messaging. monday will be the
"coolest" of the next several days with many offices leaning toward
handling this with a heat advisory and then look at a watch or
eventual warning in the later periods. for our area, even though the
same concerns exist, it was decided to keep messaging simple and
just upgrade to a warning for the extended period of impacts with
heat indicies aoa 100 degrees. there are factors that could cause
true criteria from being met at times both monday and thursday, but
it is the cumulative effects of heat and humidity, combined with
limited overnight cooling, that pose the greatest danger. some model
trends are indicating the upper ridge may not fully settle over the
area and could shift east a bit faster to allow at least the chance
for a bit of convection. friday may need headlines as well, but
concerns for either convective development across the area or
upstream complexes propagating into the region lead to greater
uncertainty. with the focus on the heat, little will be addressed
for now on the holiday weekend other than it will remain on the
warmer side with additional potential for showers and storms at
times.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 749 pm edt sun jun 28 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals, with light and/or
variable winds this evening into the overnight. generally, winds
will shift from more s-se to s-sw through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning from 2 pm edt /1 pm cdt/ monday to 8 pm
edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-
020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning from 2 pm monday to 8 pm edt thursday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning from 2 pm monday to 8 pm edt thursday for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
683
fxus63 kdtx 290341
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1141 pm edt sun jun 28 2026

.key messages...

- hot and humid conditions arrive monday with highs in the low-mid
90s and heat indices nearing 100 degrees.

- extreme heat watch now in effect tuesday to thursday with highs to
reach mid-upper 90s to 100 degrees and heat indices in excess of
105 degrees each day. there will be little nighttime relief with
lows in the mid 70s each night.

- hot and humid conditions extending to friday into the holiday
weekend with potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

decaying convection over west mi late this evening is expected to
fully decay before reaching se mi due to the dry near surface
airmass. as such, main impacts will be mid/high cloud (>10kft)
sliding across the area into monday morning. winds shift to the
south this morning as a warm front quickly lifts through the region
ushering in a significantly more hotter/humid airmass. another area
of decaying convection is forecast to drop along the front into the
saginaw valley mid/late morning. confidence in how well (and how far
south) this activity survives is still quite low so will only
maintain a prob30 for mbs. there is some model signal for a couple
hour period monday evening for widely scattered high based showers
though again confidence is very low in occurrence as well as
sufficient coverage for mention.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are forecast through monday
with storms monday morning favored to decay north of the airspace
over central lower mi.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 323 pm edt sun jun 28 2026

discussion...

main story remains the extreme heat that is expected over the
upcoming week. ridge amplification gets underway today into tonight.
locally today, surface high pressure will maintain stable conditions
through the remainder of the day as heights build leading to the jump
in temperatures this afternoon into the mid 80s. the light e-se wind
holds dewpoints generally in the 60s today.

heat and humidity increase further monday as the 594 dam upper level
ridge builds across great lakes with the center nearing 600 dam
centering across the ohio valley and mid mississippi valley regions
tuesday through thursday. while monday will be noticeably warmer and
more humid, early day clouds bring lower confidence in reaching heat
indices of 100 degrees or more. clouds and potentially light
scattered shower/thunderstorm activity are associated with a passing
mid level wave on the northern periphery of the inbound ridge. data
would suggest the locations with the best chance to achieve heat
index values would be west of i-75 if enough clearing can happen
early enough or greater coverage of clouds doesn`t pan out. have
opted to hold off on any heat advisory for monday given the lower
confidence in occurrence and duration of heat advisory criteria.

tuesday through thursday and potentially into friday will be the
time period of most concern for extreme heat. thus, have hoisted an
extreme heat watch starting tuesday afternoon given the expected
multi-day cumulative heat stress. an impressive airmass settles over
the region as 850mb temps climb to 20+c and 700mb temps to 10+c and
hold over the mid-week period translating to high temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s. wednesday and thursday could possibly see urban
areas of detroit metro region reaching 100 degrees as well. combine
that with the expected dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and heat index
values should reach around or exceed 105 degrees across most of the
area over several days. these forecast temperatures will be making a
run at daily record highs and record warm minimums (see climate
section below). positioning of the ridge at this time for the mid-
week period should keep much convective potential out of southeast
michigan and confined to the north/northwest, which also increases
confidence in the extreme heat. convection potential is still worth
monitoring in case conditions change.

hot and humid conditions are likely to continue friday into the
holiday weekend. there is some data that suggests we could see an
eventual broadening and flattening of the ridge over the great lakes
by a series of shortwaves that could open the door to convective
activity in the friday time frame. barring any widespread convective
event, we could still be looking at temperatures in the 90s and
dewpoints holding in the 70s.

marine...

high pressure at the surface will keep the light northeasterly flow
around through this evening. an approaching warm front will cause
winds to increase slightly while veering to southeasterly tonight.
this will hold through monday as gusts reach 20 knots across lake
huron. there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms to accompany
the front especially across the north half of lake huron. by tuesday
morning, winds will have become southwesterly while again topping
out around 20 knots. though the gradient increases, stability also
increases under a very warm airmass which will limit gust
potential.

climate...

daily records for the upcoming week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 96 (1933) 77 (1945)
tue june 30 96 (1931) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1934) 75 (1945)
tue june 30 98 (1933) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
mon june 29 100 (1971) 75 (1971)
tue june 30 99 (1964) 77 (2018)
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat watch from tuesday afternoon through thursday evening
for miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...aa
marine.......drk
climate......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.