Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
245 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

.what has changed...
the next round of wind headlines has been issued for sunday
afternoon through early monday, for strong southerly wind gusts
ahead of an approaching cold front. southwesterly winds will remain
gusty behind the cold front on monday, and portions of the area may
need a wind advisory to continue through the day monday. continued
to refine snow chances and amounts monday night into tuesday, and
increased accumulations slightly across portions of the snowbelt.

&&

.key messages...
1) southerly wind gusts ramp up sunday afternoon through sunday
night, shifting southwest and remaining gusty behind a cold front on
monday. there is also a low potential for severe thunderstorms along
the cold front late sunday night into early monday morning.

2) wintry weather returns late monday and tuesday. wind chills are
expected to bottom out in the single digits monday night into early
tuesday. accumulating snow is likely in the primary snowbelt region
monday night into tuesday, with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

3) limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend
expected for the second half of the upcoming work-week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
two potent shortwaves will phase over the plains on sunday, allowing
a full-latitude trough to deepen, take on a negative tilt, and
quickly close off while swinging into the great lakes sunday night
into monday. the upper-level evolution will guide a deepening
surface low pressure from the central plains into the northern great
lakes sunday night into monday. locally, a strong warm front will
lift through ahead of the deepening low early sunday, followed by a
strong cold front late sunday night or early monday morning. the main
local impact from this system will be another round of wind.

synoptic wind gust potential:

a very strong (60-70kt+ at 850mb, 40-50kt+ at 925mb) southerly low-
level jet will overspread the area quickly from the west sunday
afternoon and evening, remaining overhead sunday night until the
cold front moves through. it is always tricky to determine how much
these very strong, warm advecting low-level jets will mix to the
surface. warm air advection is natural upglide, and the strongest
jet moves overhead at night when mixing is also typically at a
minimum. still, will likely see a period of stronger gusty winds
particularly west of the i-71 corridor sunday afternoon and early
evening as daytime heating supports a period of deeper mixing into
the strengthening low-level jet. wind gusts may back off at times
after sunset, though as the low-level jet intensifies into sunday
night and the cold front approaches can`t rule out occasionally
stronger gusts continuing to make it down. the other area of concern
is downsloping along the eastern lakeshore, particularly in erie
county, pa. feel the potential for advisory-level gusts of over 40
knots or 46 mph is high enough across our western cwa beginning
sunday afternoon, and in downsloping areas closer to the eastern
lakeshore, to justify a wind advisory kicking in at 2 pm/18z sunday.
given the magnitude of the low-level jet and greater downslope
enhancement across erie county, pa, went with a high wind watch for
that county, where peak gusts in the downsloping sunday night may
exceed warning criteria of 50 knots or 58 mph. ran the advisory and
watch through 12z/8 am monday across the board for now. southeastern
portions of our area generally do not see as much wind in these types
of setups, so while the forecast calls for peak gusts into the 40 mph
range in our southeast sunday evening and night, left them out of the
advisory at the moment.

winds shift southwesterly behind the cold front monday morning, and
will remain quite brisk through the day monday and even into monday
night along the eastern lakeshore. winds aloft behind the cold front
will not be nearly as strong as ahead of it...generally in the
35-45kt range at 850mb and 30-40kt range at 925mb. still, steepening
low-level lapse rates behind the cold front, natural downglide in
the cold advection, and a fairly tight pressure gradient and quick
pressure rises through the day monday will support much more
efficient momentum transfer to the surface behind the cold front. the
current forecast flirts with advisory-criteria gusts behind the cold
front on monday, especially across northwest oh and near the
lakeshore farther east, with a general 35-45 mph forecast across most
of the area and up to 50 mph possible in some spots. wind gusts will
very gradually ease monday night into tuesday as deep low pressure
gradually fills and exits.

future headline considerations are...1) whether we need a high- end
advisory or warning for erie county, pa for the downsloping winds
sunday night...2) whether or not portions of the current wind
headlines need extended through the day monday...and 3) whether or
not southeastern portions of the area will need a wind advisory at
any point during this event, with the main window of concern in that
area being overnight sunday night into pre-dawn monday.

severe weather potential:

a strongly-forced quasi-linear-convective-system (qlcs) will likely
take shape to our west by sunday evening along the approaching cold
front. instability across our area will be minimal to none, though
very strong linear forcing with the front itself will attempt to
maintain some form of forced, low-topped convective line east into
our forecast area. a lack of a strong near-surface inversion and very
robust wind fields aloft could allow more organized line segments to
maintain a strong wind/low-end tornado risk into our forecast area
late sunday night into pre-dawn monday. overall confidence in the
severe weather threat is on the lower end given the expected lack of
instability and what should be a weakening trend in the convection
across our area, though is worth keeping in mind. the spc day 2
outlook does bring a slight risk (level 2/5) for damaging winds into
the i-75 corridor, with a marginal risk (level 1/5) to just west of
the cleveland-akron-canton corridor. if dew points end up pushing
into the mid 50s ahead of the front, it would increase the potential
for minimal (up to 100 j/kg) sbcape to maintain through the night,
which would increase confidence in severe potential. meanwhile, dew
points staying just slightly cooler in the upper 40s or lower 50s
would increase confidence in convection weakening and severe
potential diminishing across our local area. it is worth noting that
given the very minimal amount of instability, any severe weather
would likely occur in the absence of lightning.

precip timing & amounts:

a developing band of moist isentropic lift ahead of the approaching
warm front may bring a bit of light snow to our northern counties
tonight, with little to no accumulation. otherwise, mainly dry
weather is expected through sunday with a band of rain expected to
accompany the front late sunday night into early monday. overall qpf
appears modest, in the 0.30-0.60" range across the area, which
should keep any flooding concerns at bay.

key message #2:
a sizable chunk of mid-winter-like air will swing across the area
monday into tuesday, bringing a brief return to much colder and in
some areas snowy weather.

snow timing & potential amounts:
the back edge of the rain band with the cold front may briefly mix
with snow before exiting to the east on monday. otherwise, generally
moist cyclonic flow and steepening low-level lapse rates through the
day on monday should support disorganized flurries/snow showers
through the afternoon. a sharp low to mid-level trough axis swings
across the area late monday afternoon into monday night, which along
with moisture from lake michigan will likely bring greater potential
for scattered snow showers area-wide. by later monday night and
tuesday, cold west to west-northwest flow will align over lake erie,
allowing for a period of lake effect snow into the primary snowbelt
region of northeast ohio and northwest pa as some flurries/lighter
snow showers linger across the rest of the area. ridging builds later
tuesday into tuesday night, which should cause general flurries/snow
showers across the area to dissipate and cause lake effect in the
primary snowbelt to significantly slow and eventually end.

snow accumulations outside of the primary snowbelt will not be much,
generally under an inch. there could be some slick spots outside of
the snowbelt monday night as temperatures drop well below freezing if
any of the more general scattered snow showers are heavy enough to
drop a light accumulation. in the snowbelt, guidance is suggesting a
fairly brief window from overnight monday night into tuesday morning
where well-aligned flow, moderate lake-inducied instability, fairly
high equilibrium levels (near 10k feet) and respectably deep
moisture depth to 8-10k feet should combine to allow for a short-
lived window for fairly organized and efficient lake effect
snow...particularly as wind fields slacken and allow for residence
time and shoreline convergence to increase. increased snow amounts a
bit with this update in the favored west flow locales, particularly
the higher terrain slightly inland from the lakeshore. do feel that
an advisory may eventually be needed for the core snowbelt.

temperatures and wind chills:
while not especially hazardous, as we are now well into mid-march and
have some 70+ degree weather under our belt the colder temperatures
the first half of this week will be quite jarring. expect quickly
falling temperatures on monday through the day, with wind chills
quickly falling into the 10s late monday afternoon/evening. lows will
range from the mid 10s to lower 20s monday night/early tuesday, with
highs on tuesday stuck in the 20s. parts of the area will likely dip
into the 10s one more time tuesday night. in terms of wind chills,
the coldest values will be overnight monday night into tuesday
morning, bottoming out in the single digits above 0.

key message #3:
a gradual warming trend is expected to begin on wednesday, with more
seasonable to perhaps somewhat milder than average temperatures
likely by friday and saturday. a generally benign weather pattern is
expected wednesday through saturday, with minor precipitation chances
wednesday into wednesday night and again friday night into saturday.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
the main concern to impact aviation weather over the next 24
hours will be the return of strong gusty winds by the end of the
time period with gusts ramping up sunday morning and midday. the
other possible weather impact will be a band of light snow that
will quickly move through parts of neoh and nwpa later tonight.
the overall expectation is vfr conditions and ceilings this
afternoon through midday sunday. there will be an increase of
high and mid level cloudiness this afternoon into tonight but
remaining vfr. we have mentioned a brief time window from 06z to
10z of light snow possibly bringing mvfr ceilings and
a reduction of visibility 3sm to 5sm at yng and eri. forecast
confidence is lower at other taf sites for the band of light
snow to actually reach the ground and have an impact. that might
be something the next aviation forecast can take a look at with
the next taf update. vfr ceilings and broken high cloudiness
will continue through 18z sunday.

winds will start off this afternoon light from the
northwesterly 5 to 10 knots. winds will shift around from the
east to southeast later tonight into sunday morning 8 to 13
knots. later sunday morning after 12z, winds will ramp up
towards the end of this taf period increasing 15 to 20 knots
with gusts approaching 30 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely to return in showers and storms sunday
night. non-vfr will likely linger in scattered rain showers
changing to snow showers on monday with lake effect snow
possible monday night into tuesday across the snowbelt.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions will become very rough again on lake erie
starting sunday and continuing through tuesday evening. the lake has
calmed down today with a fair weather and lighter winds/waves. winds
for this rest of the afternoon will become variable by this evening
and then shift from the southeast overnight 10 to 20 knots by dawn
sunday. a developing low pressure system will track into the central
great lakes region late sunday through monday. this surface low will
rapidly deepen to around 980 mb or a little lower by monday morning.
winds will increase from the south 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to
40 knots sunday through sunday night over the lake. a small craft
advisory has been issued sunday morning through late sunday night.
by monday morning, winds will further increase and shift from the
southwest to west 35 knots with the passage of a strong cold front
late sunday night. a gale watch has been issued for all of lake erie
monday morning through tuesday morning. gales are likely. waves will
increase sunday and further build in height monday and tuesday.
waves will be 8 to 15 in the open waters and extremely rough. the
storm system will pull away by tuesday with a gradual decrease in
winds and waves but still remaining rough through at least tuesday
evening. after the likely gales, there will likely need addition sca
tuesday into tuesday night. another clipper system will shift the
winds back from the south 10 to 20 knots mid-week.

as the strong winds shift southwesterly to westerly behind the
strong cold front late sunday night into monday morning, water
levels will likely drop in the western basin of lake erie. it is
likely that a low water advisory will be needed monday into tuesday
as levels drop below the critical mark for safe marine navigation.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 2 pm sunday to 8 am edt monday for ohz003-
006>014-017>020-027>031-036-037-047-089.
pa...wind advisory from 2 pm sunday to 8 am edt monday for paz003.
high wind watch from sunday afternoon through monday morning
for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am sunday to 8 am edt monday for
lez142>149.
gale watch from monday morning through tuesday morning for
lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
117 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

.key messages...

- wind advisory now in effect late sunday morning through
sunday evening for 45-55 mph southerly gusts.

- a line of showers and thunderstorms moves through sunday evening.
damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

- windy and turning sharply colder late sunday night into monday
with snow showers likely, especially in southwest michigan and
around the greater south bend area where accumulations and
travel impacts are expected through tuesday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 117 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

a strong ~170 kt upper jet streak will dive into the central us
carving out an unseasonably strong 500 hpa height minimum that will
send a deepening sfc cyclone northeast from ia sunday to the
northern great lakes monday. this will be a classic early
spring storm system for the midwest with headline level winds,
thunderstorm chances, impressive temperatures swings and
cold/snow.

the warm advection wing associated with a developing 60-70 kt low
level jet will bring the system warm front though later tonight into
sunday morning. the region of moist isentropic ascent in advance of
this warm front looks to primarily pass north of the area late
today into tonight with virga and mid level clouds locally,
save for along and north of the mi stateline where a low chance
pop (20-30%) was retained for light measurable precip.

a very windy warm sector then builds in during the day on sunday as
temperatures make a run a 70f. forecast soundings and href/nbm probs
are highly supportive of frequent 45-55 mph gusts late sunday
morning into the afternoon/evening, with a few gusts up to 60
mph not out the question. hopefully not the intensity of yesterday`s
wind event with a wind advisory issued this go around given more
limited mixing depths.

a very narrow ribbon on low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints low-mid
50s) likely accompanies the system cold front advancing east through
the area sunday evening. this luckily won`t be enough to generate
much in the way of instability, but with such a strong wind field
and frontal forcing can not rule out damaging winds if a low topped
squall line (thin, potentially devoid of lightning) tracks through.
this has been a pretty consistent signal in cams with no changes to
spc`s slight risk (2 out 5) primarily for damaging winds.

sharply colder air wraps in through the backside of the deep low
lifting into northern michigan late sunday night into monday with an
unpleasant visit from winter. 700 mb delta t`s drop to near 30c with
favorable synoptic support/moisture for les snow/blowing snow within
the pivoting deformation axis monday, transitioning to pure le
monday night into tuesday morning. advisory level amounts/impacts
appear probable in our favored wnw flow les belts, including
the south bend area into southwest mi, but will hold off on
issuing for now given this is still 4-5 periods out. some gusty
snow showers likely make it well inland as well monday into
monday evening with minor accums possible. wind chills likely
fall to near zero monday night into tuesday morning otherwise,
with a clipper system to follow through around tue night-wed am
with a chance (40- 60%) for light system snow. the second half
of the week then features a warming warming trend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1220 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

return flow was just beginning from east at the start of the taf
period. the surface pressure gradient will tighten as a low
develops to the west and as high pressure retreats farther east
and causes the surface winds to increase and to become gusty.
winds tonight should increase and become gusty from the
southeast. the lower layers will initially remain quite dry, so
arrival or development of low clouds are not expected during the
taf period. a light shower or sprinkle is possible at sbn, but
for now have kept rain and snow out given the low likelihood of
an occurrence there before the end of the taf period. there is a
fairly strong signal for wind shear (llws), so have continued
the mention of this llws given the latest model data supporting
this shear.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ sunday to midnight
edt /11 pm cdt/ sunday night for inz005>009-012>015-017-
018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory from 11 am sunday to midnight edt sunday night
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory from 11 am sunday to midnight edt sunday night
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.
gale watch from sunday morning through sunday evening for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1250 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

.key messages...

- light accumulating snowfall arrives tonight (mainly north of m-
59), but areas north of m-46 could see snowfall accumulations of 1-3
inches.

- snow changes over to rain showers sunday morning with a brief
period of sleet or light icing possible during the transition,
mainly along/north of i-69.

- a line of showers and thunderstorms will move through sunday
night, with some strong to severe storms possible.

- windy monday with gusts to 45 mph possible, and also turning much
colder as temperatures fall from the 50s into the 20s by monday
evening.

- wind chills minimize around zero tuesday morning with highs only
in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.aviation...

light west-northwest winds becoming variable and shifting to light
east-southeast this evening as high pressure slides through
southeast michigan. mainly high clouds this afternoon before a
strengthening warm front lifts north through southeast michigan
tonight. an abrupt start to the snow is expected around or shortly
after midnight, starting in the southern taf sites but quickly
lifting north through the rest of the night. the snow band will
increase in intensity as it lifts north. warm air streaming in above
the surface will likely support a brief transition to sleet/freezing
rain before precipitation ends, as reflected in the mbs taf.
southeast to south winds will increase sunday as the warm sector and
low-level jet arrive, supporting wind gusts aoa 35 knots by day`s
end.

for dtw... a period of light snow is likely in the 04z-07z window
before precipitation lifts north of the terminal. precipitation
could end as a brief period of sleet or light rain. low clouds
should then quickly clear out around 12z, with southeast to south
winds increasing during the day. high confidence in wind gusts
exceeding 35 knots late sunday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5,000 feet tonight and tomorrow.

* moderate for snow p-type tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 452 am edt sat mar 14 2026

discussion...

a reprieve from high-impact weather emerges today as anticyclonic
flow stabilizes the atmosphere for most of the great lakes area. low-
level jet responsible for prior high-magnitude gustiness has exited
with the departure of friday`s system. this ensures much weaker
gusts (sub-20 mph) by sunrise, in spite of persistent surface-based
nocturnal mixing. subtle mid-upper level height rises are
overshadowed by more pronounced sub-700 mb (sub-10 kft agl)
shortwave ridging. gradient winds weaken throughout the daylight
hours, veering northwesterly, then becoming briefly calm this
afternoon as 1025 mb surface high centers over southeast michigan.
early morning stratocumulus, tied to the western edge of cyclonic
trajectories, erodes by late morning, but skies fill back in midday
as mid-level moistening gets underway. temperatures run a few
degrees cooler today than mid-march climatology with highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

conditions rapidly deteriorate overnight and into sunday as another
dynamic system begins to impact the region. an upstream vortmax
corresponding with an inbound pacific northwest speed max remains
over western conus tonight, barely reaching the high plains by 12z
sunday. however, models maintain consistency in the rapid
amplification of this wave as the base of the 500 mb trough digs
from seattle to denver in just 24 hours. this supports the extensive
broadening of the system`s lower tropospheric flow-field, marked by
cyclonic flow extending from the gulf coast to southern manitoba by
09z sunday. locally, southeast michigan should reside within a broad
region of isentropic ascent ahead of the system`s elevated warm
front, leading to the onset of accumulating snowfall. time-frame for
this activity to start is most likely between 06z and 09z sunday.

accumulations will vary widely across the forecast area through
sunday morning since temperatures along/south of i-96/i-696 should
hold above freezing, favoring melting snowfall. sub-freezing
temperatures are expected with northward extent, along with
increasing duration. accordingly, the highest snowfall totals should
reside north of m-46 with 1-3 inches possible due to readings
holding below 32f until closer to 15z sunday. forecast soundings
indicate potential for a 2-3 hour period of light freezing
drizzle/rain between m-59 and m-46 as the warmer southeast flow
surges in. light icing (trace to one or two hundredths) will be
possible through this corridor, falling on top of a coating to half
an inch of new snowfall. a short-duration (less than 12 hour) winter
weather advisory may be needed for some portion of the northern half
of the cwa if current trends hold.

between 15z and 18z sunday, precipitation should be wrapping up as
warm advection escalates, denoted by 925-700 mb mean flow of 55+
knots orienting ssw. this lifts 925 mb temperatures from negative
(celsius) around 09z sunday to (positive) double digits after 18z.
good agreement in the deterministics with the 990 mb surface low
still deepening as it crosses the mid-mississippi valley, then turns
nne. the system tracks over chicago and southern lake michigan
sunday evening within a powerful baroclinic zone. southeast michigan
temperatures will have warmed considerably during the afternoon
hours with temperatures in the 60s (and dewpoints over 50f) by
sunset. the attendant cold front appears to try and outpace the
surface reflection as it translates into northern lower. given the
antecedent environment, storms should be ongoing along the frontal
slope, and remain linearly organized once boundary works across
lower michigan, nocturnally. high-shear/low-cape environment
suggests the primary convective threat as strong damaging winds,
with qlcs-style spin-up tornadoes a lesser (and much more isolated)
concern. not much in the way of pre-frontal warm-sector convective
potential given pre-existing cap.

showers and thunderstorms may still be ongoing monday morning, but
the dry slot will be fast approaching. an impressive longwave trough
axis moves through aloft with its meridonally-oriented 160 knot jet
streak adjacent. arctic air immediately filters in during the day
denoted by morning temperatures dropping from the 50s into the 20s
before nightfall. a supersaturated cloud layer beneath the
reorienting pv anomaly could allow for some sprinkles/flurries, then
rising chances for periods of lake effect snow showers monday
evening and into the overnight hours. can`t completely rule out a
snow squall given the kinematics. additionally, the well-mixed
boundary layer will easily transfer momentum to support gusts of 40-
50 mph. a wind advisory will likely be required.

much colder air lingers tuesday with potential for a few lake effect
snow bands to reach southeast michigan during the day. a clipper
system races across lower michigan wednesday with a brief period of
snowfall. accumulations will be limited given the short duration and
warmer temperatures. much warmer weather is expected through the
second half of the week with a return to above normal temperatures
as early as thursday.

marine...

low pressure to rapidly depart into the continental northeast this
morning as high pressure fills in across the great lake late this
morning and afternoon. this will result in wind speeds and gusts to
quickly diminish through the morning and will lead to lighter winds
by the afternoon. the gale warning has been allowed to expire. these
conditions will be short-lived as a second anomalously strong low
pressure system moves from the southern great lakes into lake huron
sunday into monday. this initially brings a surge of warm air on
sunday which will produce stable over-lake conditions. higher
stability will reside across the southern great lakes where the
warmest air enters, which will work to keep gusts just below gales
as as strong low level jet enters. farther north, more neutral low-
level profiles may provide better chances for gales starting early
sunday morning. as the low continues to strengthen over the great
lakes, the pressure gradient will rapidly intensify with cold arctic
air then wrapping around the low and into the great lakes late
monday into tuesday. this will then bring the likely chance for gale
including some high end gales through tuesday morning.

additionally, prolonged winter weather will be likely with this
system pending the final position of the low. initially on sunday,
freezing rain to sleet to snow will all be possible across lake
huron, with a transition to all snow expected as arctic air enters.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 8 am sunday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz361-362.

gale warning from 8 pm sunday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz363-
441>443-462>464.

gale warning from 8 am monday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...gale watch from sunday evening through tuesday afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale watch from sunday evening through tuesday afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.