Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
396
fxus61 kcle 071251
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
751 am est wed jan 7 2026

.what has changed...
extended chance to slight chance pops through this morning to
account for lingering lake-enhanced precipitation potential.
confidence in stronger southerly winds late thursday into friday
is increasing so increased wind gusts across the area,
especially in nw pa where winds will be enhanced due to
downsloping off of higher terrain.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake-enhanced rain/snow showers and fog/mist/drizzle across
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania this morning will
give way to a period of dry weather through much of thursday.

2) first low pressure system will bring rain, gusty winds, and
unseasonably warm temperatures to the area thursday into
friday.

3) second low pressure system will deliver additional rain and
breezy winds to the region over the weekend with colder
temperatures and lake effect snow showers likely in its wake on
sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

persistent upper troughing will produce additional light lake-
enhanced precipitation across far ne oh and nw pa through early
this morning with precipitation dwindling this morning as a
ridge takes control. temps have cooled enough across portions
of ne oh/nw pa for some wet snow and a rain/snow mix, but any
snow accumulations should generally be around an inch or less
and be confined to the higher terrain of erie county, pa.
elsewhere, saturated air under a low level inversion will result
in patchy to areas of fog/mist/drizzle through this morning.
conditions should start to improve this afternoon, although
clouds may struggle to clear until better ridging builds in this
evening. once lake-enhanced showers/drizzle end, dry weather is
anticipated through thursday afternoon.

key message 2...

low pressure will lift northeast out of the central plains and
into the upper midwest thursday into friday, lifting a warm
front across the local area thursday night into early friday.
isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front will usher increasing
rain chances into the local area starting as early as late
thursday afternoon, although most locations will probably
remain dry until later thursday evening. the low`s associated
cold front will move into the area at some point friday
afternoon/evening which should allow pops to briefly decrease
friday evening, although the air mass won`t change much since
the next system will follow closely behind.

gusty southerly winds are likely ahead of and just behind the
warm front with widespread gusts to 30 to 40 mph anticipated
overnight thursday and early friday morning. locations that
typically experience downsloping during southerly winds
(primarily the lakeshore of ne oh/nw pa and especially northern
erie county, pa) may experience a brief period of advisory-level
gusts between about midnight and 9 am friday morning. wind
advisories may be needed, but there`s still uncertainty in how
efficiently gusts mix to the surface in the widespread rain
showers.

deep warm air advection will produce temperatures that are well
above normal for this time of year with highs in the 50s
expected across most of northern ohio thursday and widespread
50s and lower 60s anticipated on friday.

key message 3...

the next surface low will lift northeast from the tennessee
valley or mid-mississippi valley early saturday before crossing
or scraping the cwa saturday afternoon and deepening to the
northeast of lake erie saturday night. while there`s still some
uncertainty in the evolution and track of the low and the
resulting precip chances/winds over the local area, most of the
area will see a period of rain during the day saturday into
saturday night. the best upper level forcing and trough axis
won`t cross the area until sunday, so above normal temperatures
will persist through saturday before stronger cold air advection
returns by the end of the weekend. highs in the lower 30s are
expected sunday and it will be quite breezy with gusts to 30 to
35 mph (possibly higher) likely during the day. accumulating
lake-enhanced snow showers are likely with and behind the trough
axis sunday, although wintry precip will likely be short-lived
as a ridge builds east across the region on monday.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
ifr ceilings are in place across the local area with patches of
low ifr and visibilities of 2 to 4 miles. reduced visibilities
will linger into this morning with improvement through about 16z
except possibly lingering at eri through the afternoon. light
rain showers will impact eri/yng with areas of drizzle at cle.
stratus deck can be seen on satellite imagery extending south to
the ohio river valley and it will take until this evening for
clearing to start to work into the area from the southwest.
southerly winds expected tonight but can not rule out some
return to mvfr visibilities where skies have cleared and low
level moisture remains elevated.

west southwest winds of 7-12 knots expected today, backing to
the south and decreasing below 7 knots for tonight.

outlook...non-vfr expected in periods of rain thursday night through
saturday with a transition to lake enhanced snow showers on sunday.
isolated thunderstorms are possible on friday.

&&

.marine...
winds and waves will decrease quickly today as a ridge builds
east across the ohio valley. low pressure tracks northeast
across lake michigan on thursday night with southerly winds
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. a strong low level jet will
overspread lake erie but very warm temperatures over the cool
lake waters will prevent the stronger winds aloft from mixing
down.

another low pressure system will deepen as it tracks north across
lake erie on saturday, with a lingering trough pulling a strong cold
front east across lake erie saturday night into sunday. southwesterly
winds ramp up to 30 knots as the cold front wraps in from the
west saturday night. a secondary cold front will pivot east
across lake erie sunday evening. some differences in storm track
and strength remain and could result in a window of gale force
winds if the stronger solutions verify. low water conditions
will also be possible on the western basin of lake erie over the
weekend. the combination of the warm temperatures late this
week and strong southwesterly winds over the weekend could lead
to disruption or movement of the ice field on the western basin
of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
496
fxus63 kiwx 071113
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
613 am est wed jan 7 2026

.key messages...
- above normal temperatures persist through friday, then cooler this
weekend.

- areas of fog and drizzle persist this morning, mainly for areas
north of us route 30.

- periods of rain (90-100%) late thursday into thursday night.
an isolated thunderstorm is possible.

- decent rain chances (50-70%) return late friday night into
saturday, likely transitioning to some snow showers before
dissipating later in the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 320 am est wed jan 7 2026

a small scale mid/upper level trough will shift across the southern
great lakes this morning. weak vorticity advection with this feature
has combined with just moisture depth for pockets of drizzle
and even patchy light rain early this morning. a weak low level
moisture axis associated with this feature will give way to some
low level dry air advection this morning, and low/mid level
subsidence will continue to lower inversion heights. this should
lead to erosion of low clouds late this morning into this
afternoon from west to east, although timing is on the lower
confidence side. did maintain fog mention through midday given
what will be poor mixing profiles. a weak low level thermal
trough associated with this early morning short wave should
keep highs mainly in the 40s today with better low level warm
advection holding off until this evening.

the incoming low level anticyclone across the ohio valley today
will shift east of the region this evening setting up return
southerly flow and an increase in high level clouds. will
continue to hold off on fog mention at this time, but cannot
rule out some patchy fog redevelopment for a time this evening,
especially across far north/northeast portions of the area where
the increase in higher clouds should be more delayed.

a disjointed upper level wave evolution will characterize a more
active pattern in store for the thursday through the weekend period.
a cut-off upper low off baja of ca coast will quickly get ingested
in stronger southwest upper flow as a subtropical jet streak
ejects across the southern plains tonight. as this occurs,
another eastern pacific jet streak will carve out a larger
scale trough across western conus. net result of this evolution
will be for strong downstream southerly flow/moisture transport
thursday into thursday night and cyclogenesis on thursday across
the mid ms valley. the heaviest precip and most organized area
of lift will be tied into this maturing low level reflection and
strengthening fgen across the mid ms valley, but local rain
chances should increase later afternoon thursday into thursday
night as strong low level moisture convergence develops in pre-
frontal corridor from ohio valley to southern great lakes.

highly anomalous pwats near 1.25 inches will lift across the
region thursday night as the baja of ca disturbance shears and
dampens across the western great lakes. weak column lapse rates
should limit instability, but given magnitude of warmth/low
level moisture some weak sfc based instability (~100 j/kg) is
possible thursday night into early friday that could yield an
isolated storm. despite this highly anomalous moisture,
dampening forcing and progressive nature of these features
should limit threat of heavy rainfall with still an expectation
of amounts in the quarter to half inch range late thu into early
fri. highs on friday ahead of the front could approach the
record for the date for south bend and fort wayne, from low 50s
nw to around 60 se.

the next southern stream wave should eject northeast for late friday
likely inducing sfc low development once again, but overall initial
preference in this pattern to positive tilt should keep deepening
rates modest until potential phasing with south central canadian
vort lobe could induce some better cyclogenesis across the great
lakes late fri night into saturday. this should result in
another greater coverage precip event for late fri into sat
with eventual transition to snow showers as colder air is drawn
in. still a good deal of uncertainty regarding precip
timing/amounts/ptype changeover times, with timing and
magnitude of potential phasing difficult to resolve at this
forecast distance. current indications of likely late phasing
and aggregate great lakes effect does look to keep this
deepening phase more north of the area across the
central/northern great lakes. this evolution could extend some
deformation snow showers and some lake effect response through
latter part of weekend, with colder, more seasonable
temperatures toward end of this period.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 607 am est wed jan 7 2026

a shortwave trough continues to track east through the state.
drizzle and visibilities have improved over the past couple of
hours, but poor flight conditions continue at this time. rapid
improvement is expected toward 18z as a ridge axis moves in and
low-level moisture mixes out. tonight, wind near 5 kts may be
just enough to preclude any radiation fog despite narrow dew
point depressions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
869
fxus63 kdtx 071152
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 am est wed jan 7 2026

.key messages...

- cloudy today with near steady temperatures.

- big warmup kicks in for thursday and friday, as temps surge well
into the 50s on friday.

- the next round of widespread rain is expected late thursday into
thursday night.

- a return to colder weather for the weekend, with snow showers and
breezy conditions kicking in for the second half.

&&

.aviation...

ifr/lifr ceiling is locked in across the great lakes and upper
midwest this morning. the cloud moisture is left behind by low
pressure exiting the eastern great lakes, between a weak northern
great lakes cold front, and ahead of mid ms valley high pressure.
these slowly evolving larger scale weather components keep the
clouds in place across the se mi terminal corridor today.
observations farther upstream into the midwest and plains do
indicate clear sky west of the surface ridge axis, and this adds
confidence to model solutions that bring a clearing trend into lower
mi this evening. passage of the surface ridge and southward backing
low level wind help displace the cloud layer east of the terminal
corridor during the evening and entirely into ontario toward
midnight. wet ground and/or melting snow contribute to an mvfr fog
component, despite a 5-10 kt south wind, tonight into thursday
morning.

for dtw... a stray patch of light rain or drizzle is mixed with
light fog early this morning. otherwise, ifr ceiling holds this
morning until grinding up into mvfr this afternoon. a clearing trend
from the west is projected for this evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today through this evening.

* low for ceiling at or below 200 feet and/or visibility 1/2 sm or
less this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am est wed jan 7 2026

discussion...

good soaking rain yesterday, with flint setting a daily record
rainfall with 0.73 inches. lingering low level moisture, as
indicated by surface dew pts in the low to mid 30s will keep clouds
locked in through the day. still a few light showers around early
this morning as tail of upper level pv filament works through. will
have to keep on eye on fog/visibilities, as patchy dense fog is
possible by sunrise based on upstream obs.

mid level drying and warming this evening and tonight will attempt
to scour out the low clouds, as 850 mb temps push into the mid to
upper single numbers thursday morning. soundings show inversion
heights lowering aoa 1000 feet. none-the-less, with surface dew pts
still elevated, at least around 30 degrees, fog development is
possible, but near surface winds do pick up and will attempt to mix
in some drier air aloft.

subtropical moisture/wave off the baja california coast
will get booted off the northeast as upper level energy/jet off the
pacific northwest coast moves onshore and dives into the great
basin. deep and strong southwest flow developing over the plains and
tracking through the western ohio valley/great lakes region will
transport a good deal of moisture into lower michigan, as pw values
exceed 1 inch thursday night. impressive 850-700 mb theta-e ridge
looks to be moving through southeast michigan 3-9z friday, with an
equally impressive 60-70 knot low level jet. surface dew pts progged
to reach around 50 degrees as we head into friday morning. as such,
the daily record high temperatures in the mid 50s look to be in
jeopardy, as latest nbm temps indicating highs well into the 50s.

still looks to be a difficult forecast over the weekend, as exact
phase timing and location of the northern and southern branch
remains elusive. latest euro model indicates a faster phasing, with
the deepening surface low moving through the eastern great lakes,
allowing for a changeover to snow late saturday, with light
accumulations. if this snow fails to materialize, should be lake
enhanced snow showers around saturday night as 850 mb temps plummet
into the negative low to mid teens. thus, the second half of the
weekend will feature colder/near normal temperatures with winds
gusting aoa 35 mph.

marine...

northern edge of ohio valley high pressure builds into the great
lakes today. quiet conditions are expected with light winds backing
from west to southwest once the ridge axis departs. the pressure
gradient then constricts ahead of the next low which ejects out of
the southern plains thursday. this low reaches the great lakes
friday, drawing a warm airmass and widespread rain into the area to
end the work week. stable low levels prevent strong low level jet
winds from making it to the surface in the warm sector. this system
then drags a strong cold front across the great lakes friday
evening, marking the next opportunity for a brief uptick in wind
gusts and abrupt shift to northwest flow.

hydrology...

widespread rain showers thursday evening and thursday night as low
pressure tracks through northern lower michigan. right now the
heaviest rain axis looks to be over the western great lakes. the
current forecast over southeast michigan late thursday-friday
morning calls for amounts only up to half an inch of rain. thus, no
flooding is expected, as most of the snow pack has melted.

climate...

the record high temps for friday, january 9th.

detroit: 55 degrees (set in 1949)
flint: 54 degrees (set in 1939)
saginaw: 54 degrees (set in 1939)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...sf
marine.......mv
hydrology....sf
climate......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.