Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
743 am edt thu jun 25 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with the morning update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through friday night, with a chance for a few strong storms
east of i-71 between 2 and 7 pm today.

2) significant heat and humidity builds next week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees, especially in northwest
ohio.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
broad mid/upper longwave troughing continues across the northern
tier of the conus this morning, with a significant shortwave
dropping through its base. early morning water vapor loops and
rap analysis depict the axis of this low amplitude shortwave
over wisconsin and northern illinois, and it remains on track to
progress through the central great lakes this afternoon and
evening, with an associated surface low passing across northern
lower michigan and lake huron. the latest rap and other hi-res
guidance have come into agreement on an evening cold frontal
passage, and that is diurnally favorable for some scattered,
strong to severe convection.

first off this morning, decaying showers are working eastward
across portions of northern ohio and lake erie. this activity is
being sustained by a 20-30 knot low-level jet focusing modest
moisture advection and isentropic ascent as a warm front lifts
northward. consensus among the cams is that some of this may
rejuvenate near the south shore of lake erie early this morning
as the low-level jet impinges on the lifting warm front, and
this will likely prolong periods of light showers, sprinkles,
and cloud cover through 15 or 16z. that continues to add
uncertainty with how the afternoon and evening convection will
play out ahead of the cold front since it will disrupt surface
heating of what is already not a very warm and moist airmass by
summertime standards. the thinking is that a messy convective
evolution will take place, with numerous multicell clusters
initiating along differential heating boundaries this afternoon
and evening. this will make for a lot of scattered convection
instead of a more organized line, but strong deep layer (0-6 km)
effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots in response to an impressive
90-100 knot h3 jet streak will allow for some short line
segments and bows capable of locally damaging winds if enough
instability can be realized. a w to wnw shear vector orientation
normal to the convective clusters as well as fairly dry mid-
levels depicted in rap forecast soundings will aid in some bows
and wind production, and the strength of the shear also supports
some hail. the latest swody1 marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has
been expanded into most of our cwa east of the i-75 corridor,
and this is very reasonable given the dynamics and likelihood of
numerous, scattered multicell clusters. the number of severe
storms will depend on how much sunshine can break through this
afternoon. the latest href suggests mlcape reaching around 1000
j/kg this afternoon, but this could be about 500 joules higher
or lower depending on cloud cover. in terms of timing,
convection should start to initiate after 17z, with the
strongest clusters likely between 18 and 23z as the activity
propagates west to east.

the cold front will briefly settle near the ohio river valley
tonight and friday morning allowing our area to dry out as
surface ridging attempts to build down from the north. the
drying will be short lived as another mid/upper shortwave
ignites a wave of surface low pressure. this low will move out
of the mid mississippi valley friday morning and will pass
across central ohio friday night. as the low tracks along the
frontal boundary, it will lift slightly back northward friday
and friday night. strong moisture advection from a 35-40 knot
low-level jet in the ohio valley combined with isentropic ascent will
result in a large area of rain showers spreading back into our
area north of the retreating boundary friday afternoon and
friday night, with the steadiest rain south of a findlay to
warren line. rainfall amounts between 0.50 and 1 inch are
possible the closer one gets to u.s 30. any lingering showers
will end by mid saturday morning as a stronger canadian high
builds down across the great lakes and pushes the front back
into the ohio river valley.

key message 2...
the mid/upper longwave trough that has covered the northern
tier of late will continue to influence our region through
saturday, although it will be slowly retreating into new england
as a large subtropical ridge builds across the central conus in
response to a developing deep trough west of the rockies. this
will keep near to below normal temperatures in place today through
saturday, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to around 80.
however, the central conus ridge will further expand and drift
into the mid mississippi valley sunday and eventually the ohio
and tennessee valleys by the middle of next week. this will
result in a major pattern change to heat and humidity. the past
couple runs of the deterministic ecmwf and gfs have an
anomalously strong 500 mb high of 595-598 dm centered near the
ohio valley by tuesday and wednesday, with 850 mb temps as warm as
25 c. this would support high temperatures in the mid 90s or
higher, but how hot we get ultimately depends on the strength
and position of the ridge and any cloud cover from nearby
convective complexes rotating around the ridge (ring of fire).
nevertheless, people should focus on heat related impacts rather
than the exact high temperature. dew points will be in the 70s
by monday, and that will be the case much of next week. this
will likely lead to heat indices near 100 f even if air
temperatures are just in the low 90s, and the cumulative effect
of 3 or more consecutive days with heat indices that high will
result in major heat related impacts. this is similar to the
first hot spell of the season because it has been so cool the
past 2 weeks that people will need to acclimate to the heat all
over again. early season heat is usually more dangerous, so
precautions will need to be taken to stay cool and hydrated next
week if spending time outdoors. the latest cpc outlooks have a
moderate risk for excessive heat next week, and the nws heatrisk
map is already showing widespread major impacts, so the main
message continues to be that a period of significant, prolonged
heat and humidity is looking likely next week.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
showers are pushing east across northern ohio this morning and
will continue east over the next several hours. overall, rain is
light and conditions are staying vfr. some isolated mvfr has
popped up here and there over western and central ohio and could
allow for some brief mvfr at kmfd. additional showers and some
storms are expected to develop across the area this afternoon
with the most likely spots being kcak, kyng, and keri and have
maintained some tempo groups for ifr in thunderstorms. any
development further west is more conditional and have maintained
prob30s for thunder at kcle and kmfd. rain and storms will clear
to the east this evening with a cold front moving through the
region and high pressure building from the north. some fog may
try to materialize toward the end of the taf period and have
started some mvfr mist mentions.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms friday
afternoon through friday night with some lingering activity
potentially continuing into saturday.

&&

.marine...
southerly flow will be expected over lake erie today ahead of a low
pressure system and associated cold front moving through the region.
winds will shift to the southwest then west tonight with the cold
frontal passage. overall, winds will remain light, or 5 to 15 kts.
high pressure briefly building from the north will allow for light
and variable winds over the lake for the first half of friday. for
friday night into saturday, a low pressure system will move through
the ohio valley and winds will favor an east to northeast flavor. at
their worst, winds could be northeast at 10 to 15 kts and allow for
some 2+ ft waves. high pressure will build from the north starting
on saturday night. winds will remain light out of the east through
sunday and then shift to the southeast as the system moves over the
eastern great lakes. overall, marine headlines are not expected at
this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
212 am edt thu jun 25 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers ending early this morning.

- 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon.

- rain, heavy at times, arrives from southwest to northeast on
friday.

- becoming hot and humid next week with highs in the 90s and
heat indicies near 100 as early as monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 210 am edt thu jun 25 2026

a narrow warm sector has continued to permit showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist early this morning. this activity will taper
off over the next couple of hours and in its wake, stratus and
patchy fog will take shape. upstream observations have pockets of
1/4 mile visibility, but with surface wind forecast to be near 5
knots, low clouds should be the primary sky cover early this
morning.

surface low over southern wisconsin slides ese with its trailing
cold front becoming draped over the area today, serving as the focus
for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. aloft, we`re
beneath the right exit region of a 60-knot 500-mb jet which is not
the ideal placement for upper-level support. forecast soundings are
rather dry as well, helping to limit the overall coverage of storms.
steep low-level lapse rates (nearly 9c/km) do present an isolated
downburst risk from any feisty storms in what is otherwise a weakly
sheared environment.

turning to friday, the aformentioned front creeps north as low
pressure emerges from the central plains and sends an area of rain
through central indiana after daybreak. the greatest rainfall totals
are shaping up to be along the south of us 30, a slight northward
shift than previously thought as steering high pressure off the
southeast us appears somewhat stronger, and incoming canadian high
pressure less of a factor. rain totals could exceed 1" before
tapering off from west to east after sunset.

looking primarily dry for the weekend as high pressure briefly takes
hold over the eastern great lakes. cannot completely rule out a
period of showers and thunderstorms sunday morning, but forcing is
murky with a building ridge.

the primary story in the long-term is the increasing heat and
humidity as a strong ridge becomes centered over the southern
mississippi valley. spurious pops will need to be addressed at times
from the in-house blend, but there will be increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms (ridge-running mcs` perhaps) should the
ridge break down late-week. until then, highs in the 90s with a heat
index near 100.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1238 am edt thu jun 25 2026

showers and isolated thunderstorms are departing ksbn but
continue at kfwa. lightning is on the decline for a small
segment of storms ssw of kasw, but is otherwise destined for
kfwa. behind this activity, stratus and perhaps br is forecast
to develop as northwest flow and subsidence take shape.
confidence is higher at ksbn for ifr stratus, while confidence
is lower at kfwa due to a later departure time of -shra this
morning.

decreasing clouds after daybreak and westerly wind increasing.
isolated thunderstorms toward kfwa in the afternoon, but
coverage appears to be sparse and the onset location uncertain.
will continue to monitor trends in high resolution guidance and
provide an update at 12z. high confidence is dry conditions this
afternoon at ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 251055
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
655 am edt thu jun 25 2026

.key messages...

- morning showers with isolated thunderstorms dissipate, then
thunderstorm chances rise again this afternoon; potential exists
for isolated damaging wind gusts.

- dry friday except for a chance of a few evening showers near the
ohio border.

- warmer and dry this weekend.

- very hot and humid conditions are likely through the first half of
the next week as heat indices could exceed 100f; some opportunities
exist for thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

surface low pressure moving across northern lower mi sets the stage
for aviation conditions today. the primary morning trend is the
filling in of low ceiling over central and southern lower mi, on the
heels of the late night showers and within the diffuse warm front
and warm sector of the low pressure system. ceiling is borderline
ifr/mvfr with greater ifr coverage toward mbs until building into
the lower range of vfr early in the afternoon. afternoon instability
then leads to shower/storm redevelopment mainly toward mbs and fnt
with more isolated coverage near ptk and dtw.

showers and storms diminish during early evening as low pressure and
the trailing cold front move into ontario. westerly flow carries vfr
cloud coverage along the dtw corridor and lingering mvfr to low end
vfr clouds toward fnt and mbs. low level wind veering nw during the
night directs mvfr southward by with dry weather otherwise through
sunrise friday.

d21/dtw convection... an isolated shower or thunderstorm develops
early to mid afternoon with greater coverage north of dtw over the
northern fringe of d21. coverage then diminishes with sunset through
late evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this morning, low by
afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms early afternoon through early evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 359 am edt thu jun 25 2026

discussion...

updrafts within nocturnal convective showers positioned along the
elevated instability gradient have largely failed to intensify early
this morning. this has led to very limited lightning activity with
both the initial and secondary loosely organized shower lines. low-
end potential still exists for a few more rumbles of thunder through
the first half of the morning given antecedent conditions.

for the daylight hours, a mature surface low reorganizes as it comes
ashore over eastern lake michigan, tracking across central lower
michigan throughout the day. meanwhile, sustained moisture transport
leads to rising instability as the day progresses, at least for
portions of the forecast area. weak residual capping should erode
between 17z and 19z, and once it does, equilibrium levels could
extend all the way to the tropopause. latest href, rrfs, and local
probabilistic data support instability metrics nearing 1 kj/kg
during the diurnal maximum this afternoon, although moisture quality
issues may develop along/south of i-94. highest 0-6 km bulk shear
located south of m-59 still appears displaced from the better
instability to the north. regardless, expect a better convective
response from the tri-cities, across the thumb, and southward toward
metro detroit. overall coverage with this marginal event will be
isolated to scattered, but some organized storms still pose a low-
end isolated severe wind threat. latest spc convective outlook did
include a small marginal risk area tied to the potential for a few
discrete stronger cells, but the bulk of southeast michigan that
sees storms later today should be sub-severe. high temperatures will
vary from north to south, with better chances to end a 12-day streak
of sub-80f maxts across the southern portion of the area. this
occurs, in part, due to lower cloud cover and increasingly sparse
convective coverage. the system`s cold front should be departing
between 21z and 00z, so subsidence should take over and quickly
suppress late evening activity after the boundary-layer decouples.
upper midwest high pressure builds in behind the low overnight with
mainly dry conditions expected.

damping shortwave ridge works over the great lakes on friday while a
low amplitude embedded trough originating from the four corners
lifts into the ohio valley. most guidance now keeps all of southeast
michigan dry as the cyclonic wave`s rain shield approaches the
michigan/ohio border, attributed to extensive column dryness and
weak ene flow in the lowest 3 kft. cannot fully rule out parts of
lenawee and monroe counties getting clipped by some brief showers
(or perhaps just virga) friday evening (see nam 3 km and 12 km). dry
across the rest of the forecast area with temperatures slightly
below normal with lake huron modification.

high pressure influence persists over the weekend with mainly dry
conditions and thermal moderation as height rises commence within
the backdrop of major longwave pattern changes for central and
eastern conus. continental ridge amplification becomes much more
pronounced by early next week as the 500 mb geopotential height
center spikes above 597 dam near the confluence of the mississippi
and ohio rivers. the composite ridge axis will drift slightly
eastward mid-week making tuesday and wednesday the hottest days of
next week. air temperatures should have no trouble reaching 90+
degrees, and with a positively tilted progressive pacific northwest
wave getting steered back into southwestern canada, a confluent low-
level jet tracing back to the gulf will usher 70f dewpoints into
southern lower michigan. expect heat indices to easily break 100f if
current trends hold as expected; therefore, heat-related headlines
will probably be needed. convective potential persists in both the
possibility for mcs longevity and perhaps surface-based free-
convection.

marine...

a weak low pressure system will continue it`s slow trek across
central lower michigan through this afternoon. this brings the
potential for some rain showers, potentially even some
thunderstorms, throughout this period. winds are expected to be
relatively calm due to the overall weak pressure gradient of this
low pressure system. if any thunderstorms were to develop during
this time period they would be capable of locally higher wind gusts.
after this system departs to the east, a high pressure system is
expected to develop over our region throughout the weekend, bringing
warmer and calmer weather along with it.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...kgk
marine.......zb/drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.