Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
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fxus61 kcle 251129
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
729 am edt sat jul 25 2026

.what has changed...
there is now a marginal risk for severe weather on sunday and a
slight risk for severe weather on monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) remaining mostly dry today with patchy dense fog possible
during the early morning hours today and sunday.

2) a series of troughs will traverse the region beginning on sunday,
bringing multiple rounds of showers and storms to the area through
mid-week. some storms may be strong to severe with the greatest
chance of severe weather on sunday and monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure exits to the east through the day today. the majority
of the forecast area should remain dry, though isolated showers and
storms will develop along and east of i-77 as mid to low level
moisture increases over an area of isentropic lift. showers will
remain isolated with a few weak thunderstorms possible as
instability increases to 300-500 j/kg. patchy fog remains possible
through daybreak today and again overnight tonight into sunday
morning.

key message 2...
upper level ridge over the western conus builds east allowing for an
upper trough to deepen across the eastern great lakes. multiple
shortwaves will dive southeast over the region bringing the
possibility of numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms sunday
through tuesday. strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible
sunday and monday though there remains a large amount of uncertainty
in the location, coverage, and intensity of thunderstorms. the storm
prediction center has included the majority of the forecast area in
a day 2 marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather sunday,
particularly sunday afternoon. primary hazards in any strong to
severe storm on sunday will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
organized severe thunderstorms remain possible monday afternoon
and evening across the great lakes and ohio valley as a potent
trough and strong mid-level jet dive across the region. the
entire area is in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather for monday afternoon and evening. given strong deep
layer shear under the upper level jet, a corridor of damaging
wind is possible across portions of northern ohio. showers and
storms remain possible on tuesday as the upper level low slowly
exits to the east. trending drier by wednesday and thursday.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr continues after patchy morning br. w/sw winds less than
10kts today. another fl045 cumulus field expected to develop
with daytime heating after 16z. isolated shra near eri/yng but
will leave out of the taf for this issuance.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms sunday afternoon through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
winds transition from the strong ene flow yesterday to light
onshore westerlies today which will be less than 10kts. due to
the onshore nature, wave heights may still remain around a foot.
winds then become southwesterly 5-10kts sunday, increasing to
10-15kts monday, and then 15-20kts monday night ahead of a cold
front. wave heights will increase away from shore during this
period, but within a mile from shore, likely a foot or less.
after the late monday night/early tuesday cold front, winds
become northwesterly tuesday 10-20kts, then northerly tuesday
night 10-20kts, and then 5-15kts through thursday. wave heights
tuesday into tuesday night 2-4ft, decreasing to 1-3ft midweek.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 251530
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1130 am edt sat jul 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry, warm, and increasingly humid today.

- hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by sunday and
monday.

- strong to severe storms possible from 8 pm edt sunday to 4 am
edt monday. damaging winds will be the main threat but an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- additional strong to severe storms possible monday, especially
in the evening and into early tuesday. low confidence in
exact track and timing of storms.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 155 am edt sat jul 25 2026

winds will be out of the southwest today as our area is on the
backside of an expansive high pressure system centered over the
northeastern us. as waa ramps up throughout the day, high
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with a noticeable
increase in humidity compared to the past few days as dew points
hover around 60 to 65 degrees by the afternoon. mid level
stratus clouds are expected to build in later today. also, skies
may appear hazy at times as smoke from ongoing wildfires in the
pacific northwest drifts in but remains elevated. no impacts to
air quality or visibility are expected. in coordination with
neighboring offices to our west, have trended temperatures and
dew points down a degree or two due to increased confidence in
partly to mostly cloudy skies during peak diurnal heating.

hot and humid conditions on sunday and monday with potential for
severe weather. west/southwest winds will advect in higher dewpoints
around 70 to 75 degrees by sunday afternoon and again on monday.
locally higher dewpoints will be possible due to increased
evapotranspiration from crops. confidence continues to increase in
the `ring of fire` pattern setting up where our forecast area will
be on the periphery of a building upper level ridge centered over
the central plains. with northwest steering flow aloft, one or more
mcss could develop and impact our forecast area late sunday through
early tuesday. the `ring of fire` pattern often has a high ceiling
for repeated rounds of severe weather but it is also highly
conditional. there is a wide spread of solutions within model
guidance which lends itself to considerable uncertainty still. the
hot and humid conditions will fuel a potentially volatile
environment for storms with up to 3000-4000 j/kg sbcape and 40
kts of shear. convective initiation remains uncertain as to
exactly when and where it will occur sunday evening; the daytime
hours will be mainly dry, with the chances for strong to severe
storms anticipated to increase after 8 pm edt lasting through
about 4 am edt monday. the greatest uncertainties at this time
are the potential for capping and what the forcing mechanism
will be for convective initiation. as mentioned in the previous
discussion, determining if the catalyst for storms will be
upper level vorticity maxima, the upper level jet, or remnant
outflow boundaries/mcvs will be vital in understanding when and
where storms will track. given this uncertainty, a broad
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather encompasses our
forecast area sunday night. what happens late sunday will
influence what occurs on monday; have maintained the best
chances for rain/storms on monday in the evening and early
overnight hours, although this could change. storms are expected
to grow upscale into a squall line or mature mcs, with damaging
winds as the main threat. a brief embedded tornado or two will
be possible as well as 0-1 srh values approach 150-200 m2/s2
sunday night and again on monday.

exactly how hot and humid it will get on monday will be determined
by storms sunday night. have maintained highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s for now, but diurnal heating may be disrupted or stunted by
lingering clouds on monday depending on what happens sunday.
monday`s heat indices are around 100 degrees in the forecast, but
will hold off on heat headlines for now until better confidence
arises in what will happen sunday night.

tuesday and beyond will see a reprieve in the active weather pattern
as high pressure builds over the great lakes. dry and seasonable
with highs in the mid 80s midweek. as the upper level ridge builds
and expands eastward, hot and humid conditions may return by the end
of next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1130 am edt sat jul 25 2026

low level moisture plume just west of the terminals will slowly
advect eastward tonight given light westerly flow. high degree
of spread in numerical guidance concerning exact ceiling heights
and fog potential. held with conservative mvfr forecast for now
but ifr is not entirely out of the question. clearing expected
by sunday afternoon with any thunderstorm potential well after
this forecast window.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 251034
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
634 am edt sat jul 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with near normal temperatures are expected today.

- heat and humidity build back into the region sunday-monday with
highs around 90 degrees and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

- isolated strong to severe thunderstorms sunday, with a more
organized severe weather threat arriving monday. damaging winds are
the primary hazard both days.

&&

.aviation...

residual dry and stable air associated with sfc high pressure
departing the eastern great lakes will maintain continued dry
conditions today. aside from occasional mid/high level clouds,
diurnal mixing will result in a scattered diurnal cu field, based
around 5000 feet. return flow associated with the sfc high will
result in light ssw winds during the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast today and tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 am edt sat jul 25 2026

discussion...

the 00z.kdtx raob sampled a very dry airmass last night, with pwat
of 0.61" falling in the 10th percentile of daily sounding
climatology. the dry column is still in place this morning, with
mostly clear conditions observed via satellite across lower
michigan. intervals of cloud anchored to a shortwave over the upper
midwest will begin to work across lower michigan around mid-day,
although not expecting any precipitation given how dry the resident
airmass is. the wave combined with a shift to southwest flow signals
the pattern shift on tap for sunday-monday, with just one more day
of seasonable temperatures in the mid-80s before warm and humid
conditions arrive.

main drivers of this pattern shift are the amplifying ridge sprawled
over western conus and a strong low over hudson bay. placement of
these features puts the great lakes within the enhanced belt of nw
flow aloft and in the path of multiple embedded shortwaves over the
next couple of days. arc of instability advects into se michigan
late tonight-sunday coincident with the arrival of left exit region
dynamics, triggering shower/isolated thunderstorm chances as early
as sunday morning across the saginaw valley/thumb. the instability
plume then presumably expands into all of se michigan during the day
sunday, with models signaling possible peak heating redevelopment
followed by mcs potential overnight-monday morning. the enhanced nw
flow (35-45 knots at 500mb) will be supportive of organized
convection, but with low confidence in timing and coverage. spc
swody2 marginal risk reflects the uncertainty in both scenarios,
where several models suggest a capping inversion is in place during
the afternoon and/or send the nocturnal mcs activity to our
south/west toward the instability bullseye. for any thunderstorms
that do overcome these barriers, main concerns will be damaging wind
and heavy rainfall.

the more organized severe weather potential still looks to be latter
half of monday with the arrival of the surface low and cold front.
this is going to depend largely on how convection unfolds throughout
the day, and how much instability is available to be engaged by the
stronger forcing. still looking at a lot of model variability for
monday, including thunderstorm coverage, timing of the frontal
passage, etc. which makes it difficult to glean any meaningful
details from the global/regional models beyond a broad severe
weather threat. all modes of severe weather are possible including
heavy rain, although damaging wind is again the primary threat. the
latest swody3 puts all of lower michigan in a slight risk of severe
weather.

the other aspect of this airmass is the heat and humidity, in which
temperatures both sunday and monday climb toward 90 degrees. this
pushes heat indices into the low-mid 90s each afternoon, supported
by a humid airmass with dewpoints in the 70s. more seasonable
temperatures then return mid-week behind the frontal passage, with
drier weather also anticipated.

marine...

influence of high pressure wanes over the course of today as it
moves more along the atlantic coast and as low pressure organizes
over the plains states and central canada. light southerly wind
between the systems pulls warmer air and greater instability into
the central great lakes leading to increasing thunderstorm activity
by sunday, including the chance for a strong to severe storm sunday
night. the primary low pressure system then tracks across the
northern great lakes during monday. thunderstorm activity continues
to increase coverage and intensity with this system, especially
along the trailing cold front that brings a chance of strong to
severe thunderstorms as it moves through the region. outside of
storms, wind and waves are low until the northerly wind shift post
front late monday night into tuesday when speed has potential to
reach 25 knots over southern lake huron.

hydrology...

several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible sunday into
early next week. an increasingly humid and unstable airmass will
lead to rainfall rates over an inch per hour in some thunderstorms.
recent dry weather and low soil saturation will help mitigate
widespread flooding concerns, although localized flash flooding of
low-lying, urban, and other flood-prone areas remains possible if
thunderstorms repeatedly impact the same locations.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mv
marine.......bt
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.