Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
182
fxus61 kcle 291958
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
358 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

.what has changed...
added frost to the forecast for portions of the area on thursday
night and friday night. chances of rain have trended up for
friday, especially south of a line from findlay to youngstown.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend with
patchy frost on thursday night and greater coverage of frost on
friday night.

2) opportunities for showers will linger through the end of the week
within this cooler pattern.

3) the weather pattern trends gradually warmer with the potential
for thunderstorms next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

low pressure is over western pennsylvania and the associated cold
front is south of the area this afternoon. temperatures range from
the upper 40s near the lakeshore to mid 50s inland. this will be the
beginning of a cooler pattern as an upper level trough sets up over
the great lakes region through saturday. cold advection will
continue overnight with 850mb temperatures falling to around -2c for
thursday and friday before trending slightly cooler for saturday.
normal highs at the end of april are in the mid 60s but we will tend
to see high temperatures limited to the low to mid 50s for the next
3 days. ample cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures near 40
degrees and do not expect to have any issues with frost. more breaks
are expected in the cloud cover from thursday night through saturday
night which will allow for colder overnight lows and potential for
frost. for thursday night the frost looks to primarily effect
northwest pennsylvania while coverage of frost on friday night looks
to encompass most inland areas. a ridge of high pressure will build
overhead friday night with low temperatures generally in the low 30s
but could drop below freezing for inland portions of northwest
pennsylvania. frost/freeze headlines may be needed but will depend
on the degree of clearing over the next few nights.

key message 2...

rain associated with the cold front is exiting the area to the east
this afternoon while additional showers have developed upstream in
northern indiana and western lower michigan along a trailing surface
trough. these showers are expected to reach northwest ohio this
evening then decrease in coverage as the trough swings southeast
across north central ohio overnight. this axis of moisture will
remain a focus for showers to develop on thursday afternoon with
steep low level lapse rates and a minimal amount of instability.

a shortwave trough will round the base of the upper level ridge
thursday night into friday. weak low pressure will slide from
illinois across indiana and ohio bringing a swath of rain thursday
night into friday. chances of rain have trended up with this system,
with greatest potential focused along and south of route 30.

key message 3...

the persistent upper level trough finally shifts off the east
coast on sunday night, and temperatures trend back towards
normal on monday. showers and thunderstorms are possible both
along a warm front and then ahead of a cold front later monday
as the next trough moves through the northwest flow aloft.
temperatures trend warmer again on wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms possible again.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
widespread mvfr and ifr conditions are seen across the region as a
low pressure system moves off to the east. rain showers are
currently east of a line from kcle to kmfd and will continue to move
eastward through the afternoon into early evening. west of the
showers, ceilings have climbed to around 1-1.5kft, and to the east
in the showers terminals have ceilings less than 1kft. visibility
may drop down to less than 3sm at times in the heavier portions of
showers. after the showers exit to the east early this evening,
there will still be plenty of low-level moisture in the region that
will keep ceilings down in ifr conditions with some pockets of mvfr
possible. there will be a slow improvement in conditions late in the
taf period, though still expect non-vfr ceilings for most locations
with kcle improving after 18z tomorrow.

winds behind the low pressure system will be mainly out of the north
to start then backing to be out of the northwest throughout the taf
period. expect winds to be lighter overnight around 5 knots and
increasing to around 10 knots by tomorrow afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and low ceilings late
thursday night into friday morning.

&&

.marine...
north to northwesterly flow expected through saturday evening
across lake erie. winds will be generally 5-15 knots during that
time with periods of lighter winds possible friday morning.
waves will continue to be 1-3 feet across that lake as well. by
sunday, high pressure will build in south of the region and
winds will be 10-15 knots and shift to be westerly then
southwesterly by the evening into monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
842
fxus63 kiwx 291759
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
159 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

.key messages...

- scattered rain showers through this evening and again thursday
afternoon/evening.

- below normal temperatures are expected into the start of the
weekend with moderation closer to normal into next week.

- frost may impact sensitive vegetation friday night into early
saturday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 158 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

a general west to northwest flow aloft will keep the region in a
cooler and much less active pattern for the next 7 days or more.
that`s not to say there isn`t a few items to look at, but in
comparison to the past several weeks it is a welcome breather.

a series of weak disturbances will help keep periods of clouds and
even some lighter showers around this afternoon/evening as well as
later thursday afternoon into thursday night. qpf amounts will be on
the light side and not cause any concerns with the hydro issues
still in play for some areas. temperatures will be chilly (and
generally below normal) for late april and in comparison to recent
times. although lows both tonight and thursday night will dip into
the 30s, cloud cover, light precip and a modest breeze should limit
any frost potential.

a somewhat more pronounced trough pushes through friday, bringing
with it additional caa and more importantly clearing skies as well
as diminishing winds. this will set the stage for widespread frost
development with some areas in the ne possibly going below freezing
for a light freeze. too early for any headlines, but suspect at
least a frost advisory will be hoisted at some point with maybe a
need for a freeze watch/warning. the cool conditions will persist
into saturday before the deeper trough begins to push north and some
moderation back to more normal temperatures (60s) arrive.
disturbances will still move through the flow and bring some chances
for showers next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 140 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

mvfr/vfr cigs continue through 12z thu for ksbn and 16z thu for
kfwa with periods of light showers as a disturbance moves
eastward through the area. some slight reductions in vsbys with
the heavier showers. there is low chances of an embedded
thunderstorm mainly for kfwa later this afternoon and evening
however, very low confidence with this outcome so did opt to
keep mention out of the forecast at this time. northwesterly
winds continue around 10 kts, however for kfwa after 16z thu
look to see an uptick in diurnally driven gusts to around 20
kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
983
fxus63 kdtx 291841
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
241 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

.key messages...

- chance of light rain and drizzle through tonight. additional minor
chances for light rain each afternoon both thursday and friday.

- a stretch of well below average temperatures will exist thru this
weekend. this will bring potential for frost/freeze conditions each
morning friday through sunday.

&&

.discussion...

a notably cooler environment firmly entrenched today, as an initial
period of meaningful large scale height falls occur atop prevailing
low level northeast flow. associated broad, weak ascent within the
moist cyclonic flow will maintain some pockets of light rain or
drizzle into the early evening hours. potential for an uptick in
coverage early tonight, as greater height falls tied to an inbound
higher amplitude wave shifts an inverted surface trough toward the
area. overall moisture quality and depth supportive of a chaotic
coverage and will continue to highlight potential thru the early
morning hours. the likelihood for a higher coverage of cloud cover
to linger well into the night, combined with a persistent light
gradient, will provide a higher prospective floor for low thursday
morning. forecast will continue to highlight readings ranging from
mid 30s to lower 40s. some patchy frost plausible in this
environment, but widespread coverage appears unlikely.

upper low forecast to anchor north of lake superior over the next 24
hours, effectively maintaining a stretch of cooler and potentially
unsettled conditions to finish the work week. brief bouts of pva as
weak shortwave energy transit the existing mid level cyclonic
periphery may combine with steepening diurnally enhanced lapse rates
to offer a lower probability for shower production both thursday and
friday. slightly greater signal exists friday, as highlighted by
latest blended model guidance. coldest conditions this period likely
noted friday, as a secondary window of cold air advection drags 850
mb temperatures below -5c. highs ranging from mid 40s to lower 50s.
frost/freeze considerations will exist, particularly fri night as
overnight temperatures more definitely push below freezing early
saturday morning.

higher magnitude cold for early may standards will exist through
saturday within deep layer northwest flow. daylight temperatures
again struggling to eclipse 50 degrees. resident polar thermal
profile will steadily vacate starting sunday within the backdrop of
modest height rises and brief warm air advection as low level flow
emerges from the southwest within the immediate wake of exiting
surface ridging. a more seasonable airmass then entrenched heading
into early next week. large scale pattern maintains some level of
general troughiness with a favorable trajectory for additional mid
level impulses to pivot through, suggesting a potentially wet
pattern may emerge at times during the early week period.

&&

.marine...

upper troughing holds across the great lakes through the remainder
of the work week maintaining cooler, unsettled weather though little
to no thunderstorm chances as a result. low pressure lifting out of
the ohio valley into the eastern great lakes shifts winds from the
northeast to northwest tonight with this flow direction largely
holding through friday. speeds stay on the modest side owing to a
fairly diffuse gradient with gusts holding at or below 20kts. period
of high pressure favored to emerge this weekend before the unsettled
pattern returns to start next work week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt wed apr 29 2026

aviation...

trough influence firmly in place this afternoon supporting lower vfr
with pockets of mvfr cloud and scattered showers/drizzle. ongoing
conditions largely persist as is through the rest of the afternoon
before the driving wave swings over the area this evening. based on
upstream obs and model guidance, expectation is for wider spread
light shower coverage as well as lowering ceilings toward mvfr more
being predominant. how long these showers last overnight carries
high uncertainty with solutions ranging from fizzling out late
evening to lingering into early thursday morning. for now have opted
for a middle ground in the current forecast. some improvement in
ceiling heights back to lower vfr favored thursday morning.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......kdk
aviation.....kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.