Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 202340
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
640 pm est sat dec 20 2025

.synopsis...
a cold front will move east across the area tonight with high
pressure building east across the region sunday and monday. the
next system will cross the area late monday into tuesday and
high pressure will return by wednesday.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
a cold front will approach from the west this afternoon into
early this evening, resulting in gusty southerly winds due to
the tightening pressure gradient through early this evening.
wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph are likely along the lakeshore and
across portions of nw oh, although there may be brief and
isolated gusts as high as 45 mph near the lakeshore of ne oh/nw
pa through this evening. the cold front will push across the
local area tonight. light rain/snow showers are possible with
the front, primarily across nw pa where there will be a touch
more moisture. elsewhere, the lower levels will likely be too dry
for any measurable precipitation. winds will shift to the
west/northwest behind the cold front late tonight through the
daytime hours sunday and scattered lake effect snow showers are
possible across nw pa and extreme ne oh during this timeframe.
snow accumulations will generally be an inch or less, however
there`s some potential for 1 to 2 inches of accumulation in the
higher terrain of inland erie county, pa. any lake effect precip
should taper off relatively quickly sunday evening as a ridge
builds into the region and winds become lighter and
south/southwest.

tonight`s lows will be in the upper teens to lower 20s and highs
will be in the chilly mid 20s to around 30 degrees sunday.
clearing skies and light winds will allow for efficient
radiational cooling sunday night with overnight lows falling
into the low to mid teens. a few spots may attempt to dip into
the single digits across interior ne oh.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
high pressure will foster dry weather through at least early
monday afternoon. a warm front will lift across the local area
monday night and isentropic ascent ahead of the front will
result in the return of precipitation chances monday night into
tuesday. depending on the timing of the onset, ptype may start
off as snow or a rain/snow mix before transitioning to rain
behind the warm front by late tuesday night. any wet snow
accumulations will likely be minimal and quickly melt as
temperatures increase in the warm sector. pops should quickly
taper off as a cold front moves east across the area tuesday
afternoon and a ridge quickly builds into the region.

monday`s highs will be in the 30s with lower 40s likely across
southwestern zones. temperatures will probably stray from a
typical diurnal trend as warm air advection develops monday
night into early tuesday. mild temps in the 40s are anticipated
during the day tuesday with lower 50s possible southwest of a
line from roughly findlay to mount vernon.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
an upper ridge will maintain influence over the region through
friday and much milder temperatures are anticipated for
christmas eve and christmas day. temperatures may be a bit
chillier in the 40s on wednesday, but expect 50s across most of
the area thursday and friday with a few spots possibly touching
60 degrees in southwestern communities on christmas day. rain
chances will increase as a warm front lifts across the region
late wednesday into thursday with additional rain chances
continuing into the end of the long term period as a cold front
moves southeast from the upper great lakes.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
vfr in high level cloud cover will continue through much of
tonight. a cold front will move southeastward across terminals
overnight tonight bringing low/mid level bkn/ovc cloud cover.
best chance for mvfr ceilings will occur downwind of lake erie
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. can`t rule out
occasional snow showers at keri associated with the frontal
passage to persist through much of the day sunday.

southwesterly winds have eased to 10-15 knots this evening, but
wind gusts 20-25 knots are expected to return with the frontal
passage overnight tonight. surface winds will also turn
northwesterly behind the cold front. stronger wind gusts to 30
knots will be most likely at keri early sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr will be possible with a mix of rain/snow
monday night, transitioning to mostly rain late monday night
into tuesday morning. non-vfr will be possible with rain
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest flow of 20-25 knots is expected this evening into tonight.
following a cold frontal passage tonight, winds increase to 25-30
knots, with brief gales possible in the far western basin. winds
become northwest sunday morning and gradually decrease through the
day and to less than 20 knots by sunday night as high pressure
builds in from the west. the short duration of southwest winds is
expected to limit low water concerns in the western basin of lake
erie.

southerly winds develop on the backside of the departing high on
monday, possibly exceeding 20 knots as flow becomes southwest on
tuesday. winds become northwest and then weaken as high pressure
builds into the great lakes region on wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 4 pm est sunday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est sunday for lez146>148.
small craft advisory until 10 pm est sunday for lez149.

&&

$$

synopsis...15
near term...15
short term...15
long term...15
aviation...13
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 202359
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
659 pm est sat dec 20 2025

.key messages...
- breezy conditions persist through the overnight hours.

- sharply colder overnight through sunday with morning lows near
20 and wind chills in the teens to single digits.

- trending warmer monday through at least friday with chances
for rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 140 pm est sat dec 20 2025

ridging over the eastern us and associated warm air advection has
propelled high temperatures well into the 30s and into the 40s as of
this midday writing. wind gusts have been steadily increasing but
low-level mixing has been limited due to mostly cloudy skies. a cold
front is arriving over northwest illinois and presents one more
opportunity for breezy conditions as wind become northwesterly after
sunset. cold air advection beneath mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures to fall into the 20s overnight. cannot rule out a brief
period of light lake effect snow for berrien county late tonight
amid stiff westerly flow. forecast soundings reveal poor saturation
and equilibrium levels, both of which will limit snowflake size and
any accumulation potential.

after a cold sunday, a mild week lies ahead with a progressive upper-
air pattern in place and a steadily amplifying ridge over the
southern us. an emerging shortwave from the northern plains
represents one target of opportunity in this forecast package. high
pressure now over the eastern seaboard offers weak moisture
advection from the gulf into a developing warm sector through the
mid-mississippi valley. antecedent cold air over the great lakes
region presents some precipitation-type concern, though details are
highly uncertain at this distance. i`ve stayed close to the existing
forecast of snow showers changing to rain monday night into tuesday.

upper-level ridging continues to amplify by midweek with highs in the
50s anticipated wednesday when our next chance of rain arrives. how
long this warmth lasts is somewhat uncertain as a canadian low
pressure system looks to drop in at some point next weekend, marking
a period of rain perhaps changing to snow, before ridging
resumes.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 651 pm est sat dec 20 2025

prevailing vfr with increasing westerly post-frontal winds,
becoming west-northwestward overnight. sustained 15kt with gusts
to 20-25kt through around 12z before beginning to subside to
10kt or less through the remainder of the day. some lake effect
low-level clouds around h010-015 will encroach on sbn and
perhaps as far south as fwa in the morning, but confidence is
not high enough to introduce cig-related restrictions at this
time. by the afternoon, clearing skies will prevail as high
pressure builds into the region.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 pm est sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...norman

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 202041
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
341 pm est sat dec 20 2025

.key messages...

- passage of a cold front this evening to bring westerly winds with
gusts 30-40 mph late tonight and overnight. low chance for some
isolated gusts to 45 mph late this evening, especially within the
northern thumb.

- chance for light snow monday morning and afternoon, favored north
of i-94. accumulations to range between trace amounts up to an
inch.

- above normal temperatures through the mid and late week period.

&&

.discussion...

amplification of an upper-level trough across the northern great
lakes and progression of low pressure from southern ontario into
southern quebec will continue to draw a cold front across se mi
through the evening hours. outside of an extended line of shallow
stratus development aligned with the frontal forcing, any meaningful
precipitation will be kept at bay given the general anemic moisture
profiles. shallow convergence will attempt to squeeze out some
hydrometeors out of the 1.5kft thick stratus deck, bringing very low
end possibilities for light rain/snow. shallow mixing depths along
and behind the front will interact with the stronger 45 knot llj that
will wane in intensity through the overnight hours. a quick isolated
gust up to 45 mph will be possible within the immediate wake of the
front late tonight, with then a 2-4 hour window following frontal
passage in the early morning hours to see sporadic wind gusts of
30-40 mph. gust intensity decreases to around 20 to 30 mph by the
afternoon hours. cold air advection in the wake of the front holds
temperature highs in the 20s and wind chills in the teens. northern
periphery of high pressure centered over the ohio valley will
maintain stable and dry conditions through sunday.

return flow behind the departing high will induce shallow system
relative moist isentropic ascent maximized in the mid-levels. this
will elicit a a broad but light area of snow across a greater
portion of se mi that will bring trace amounts up to an inch of snow
accumulation. the higher end accumulations towards an inch will be
most likely through the tri-cities and into the northern thumb where
residence time of isentropic ascent is longer. this quick 3-6 hour
window for snow potential will be most likely in the late morning to
afternoon hours on monday. low level subsidence quickly fills in
within the dry slot behind feature mixing out the boundary layer,
holding dry conditions with temperatures increasing to above
freezing. surface flow to back from west to southwest late monday
into tuesday which will allow for shallow moisture to advect across
se mi throughout the tuesday morning hours. moisture depths to on in
excess of 5kft brings the possibility for drizzle and a much lower
end possibility of freezing drizzle. there may be a low end
possibility for sub-freezing surface temperatures with the arrival
of any precipitation, however, temperatures are expected to rise
near or above the 32 degree mark with the better push of shallow
moisture advection. boundary layer moisture will attempt to mix out
through the day tuesday with highs pushing into the 40s.

very high confidence surrounding temperature trends heading towards
and after christmas with well above temperatures to end the week. the
nbm features christmas and the day after christmas with afternoon
highs in the 50s closer to the mi/oh border and 40s to the north. the
nbm may be a bit overzealous regarding the degree of warm air
advection given a smaller window for staunch southwest flow, but
certainly low to mid 40s looks achievable. there have been weak
signals for the development of low pressure over the great lakes
around christmas but confidence is low at this time regarding
strength and locations. in any case, rain would be expected given
temperatures well above the freezing mark.

&&

.marine...

gale warnings remain in effect for all of lake huron as low pressure
tracks across ontario this evening. the warm sector has generally
held southwest gusts below 30 knots across the nearshore, with less
certainty in winds for the open waters where the observational
network is more limited. regardless, wind gusts will pick up and
shift to the west over the next several hours as a cold front tracks
across lake huron. this will be followed by a second arctic front
late this evening (01-05z/8p-12a local) and a strong surge of cold
advection. this second front is much stronger and brings a robust
wind bubble with it that may briefly boost wind gusts to 40-45 knots
during the aforementioned time period. winds become northwest behind
this front, generating a convergence axis over northern lake huron
that generates lake effect snow bands early sunday morning.
potential for snow squalls exists through the morning, but subsides
by mid-day as high pressure fills into the ohio valley and relaxes
the gradient. the active pattern continues into early next week with
several opportunities for snow showers and elevated wind gusts
tuesday night.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1251 pm est sat dec 20 2025

aviation...

a warm front has set up just north of the area today allowing for
gusty southwesterly winds, up to 30 knots, ahead of an approaching
cold front. some lower vfr cigs will arrive later this afternoon
ahead of the cold front for a few hours but will likely be dry with
best chance of seeing any snow flake being to the north by mbs. dry
slot after the initial cold front will scour out much of the low
cloud until a secondary cold front drops in from the northwest
tonight with a low stratus deck noted in the obs and satellite. low
vfr cigs for most sites with better moisture to the north dropping
cigs into mvfr for several hours overnight into sunday. will be
another increase in wind gusts overnight as well from the
west/northwest following the second front which will decrease during
the day sunday.

for dtw...gusty west winds tonight bring at least low probability
for crosswind thresholds to be met for a period of time. favored
window for this looks to be 04z to 11z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through this evening. moderate
late tonight.

* low for crosswinds tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 7 am est sunday for lhz361-362.

gale warning until 4 am est sunday for lhz363-462>464.

gale warning until 4 am est sunday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......mv
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.