Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
023
fxus61 kcle 290536
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
136 am edt sat aug 29 2026

.what has changed...
temperatures continue to trend slightly higher for early to mid-next
week.

&&

.key messages...
1) temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, becoming
above-average by early to mid-next week. heat headlines are
possible.

2) an unsettled weather pattern will develop across the great lakes
early to mid-next week, resulting in increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. strong storms and heavy rainfall are
possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a large upper-level ridge will build east across much of the
central and eastern conus by the end of the weekend into mid-
next week. at the surface, a warm front will lift northeast
through the area late sunday into monday, ushering in above-
average temperatures across the region. highs in the mid to
upper 80s on sunday will increase further into the upper 80s to
lower 90s by monday, and perhaps reaching the mid-90s in some
spots by tuesday or wednesday with the ridge axis overhead,
yielding heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 at times. all
this said, it is still not a slam-dunk heat event given
increasing chances for showers, storms, and residual cloud cover
during this same time period. will continue to watch trends
over the next couple of days.

key message 2...
an unsettled weather pattern will develop across the great lakes
by the end of the weekend into mid-next week as several mid-
level shortwaves track east along the upper-level ridge axis,
providing increased flow needed to support organized convection.

the first period of concern will be sunday night into monday
behind the warm front as guidance favors the development of a
complex of showers and storms generally moving southeast through
the central and eastern great lakes. this appears to be a
glancing blow at this time, mainly across far northeast ohio or
northwest pennsylvania. precipitation chances have generally
trended lower for tuesday with the ridge axis overhead with
chances increasing again by tuesday night through wednesday as a
strong upper-level trough swings east through the upper great
lakes. in addition, anomalously-high pwats in excess of 1.80
inches could lead to torrential rainfall and isolated flash
flooding where storms persist. still quite a bit of uncertainty
with regards to shower and thunderstorm timing and coverage,
though given the favorable environmental shear in place, the
chance for strong to severe storms remains possible. will
continue to monitor trends.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr expected through the taf period. there`s low confidence in
patchy fog across eastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania
tonight that may drop visibility briefly but no impacts expected
at terminals. scattered to broken high clouds are expected with
some diurnal scattered clouds around 5kft possible tomorrow
afternoon. winds will be light around 5 knots out of the south
with a brief lake breeze possible at kcle and keri.

outlook...non-vfr possible sunday night into monday with showers
and thunderstorms and again on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots will decrease overnight and
veer to southerly. a stretch of good marine conditions is
expected through monday with winds of generally 10 knots or
less. southwesterly winds will increase into the 10-15 knot
range tuesday and wednesday. there is a low end threat of
thunderstorms beginning sunday night and peaking on wednesday.
thunderstorms can result in erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...23
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
891
fxus63 kiwx 290722
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
322 am edt sat aug 29 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry and trending warmer this weekend. slight chances of
showers far northern indiana and southern lower michigan
tonight and sunday.

- heat and humidity increases into next week with afternoon heat indices
expected to reach well into the 90s for many. heat indices
may approach 100 degrees for portions of the area tuesday and
wednesday afternoons.

- a primarily dry pattern should continue into at least the
first half of next week, with chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the middle and latter portions of the
upcoming work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 320 am edt sat aug 29 2026

overall no major changes in forecast thinking from the past several
cycles. low chances of rain showers for northern locations are
expected tonight through sunday. a warming trend still remains of
high confidence this weekend into early next week. heat indices from
the mid 90s to 100 are possible tuesday and wednesday afternoons.

an expansive low level anticyclone persists this morning from
western new york into southern missouri. little movement in
this anticyclone is expected through tonight as local area
remains downstream of mid/upper level ridge axis across the
central and northern plains.

a strong low level jet in vicinity of the upper level ridge axis
across the northern plains has led to development of convection
early this morning across eastern south dakota. this convection
should augment a smaller scale short wave progressing through this
ridge axis, and upper level wave pattern remains supportive of
this short wave dropping east-southeast to the southern great
lakes later this afternoon/early evening. a pocket of enhanced
mid level westerlies associated with this convectively enhanced
short wave should shift across the southern great lakes region
tonight with a period of sharp mid level moisture advection. low
level moisture advection will be a bit more limited given what
should remain some unfavorable low level flow trajectories
arising from the persistence of the low level anticyclone. this
evolution should allow for some very weak elevated instability
to shift eastward across southern/central lower michigan this
evening. passage of this short wave, broad isentropic upglide,
and weak elevated instability arising from elevated moisture
transport could be enough for a few showers across the north
tonight.

stronger southwesterly low level flow from the plains will migrate
eastward to the mid ms valley/southern great lakes on sunday with
some increase in isentropic lift. difficult to discern much else in
terms of more pronounced mid/upper level forcing by this time,
but overall pattern with advective forcing seems to support at
least some slight chance pops across the northern half of the
area. an isolated thunderstorm is possible, but better low level
moisture transport and more pronounced mucapes should reside
back across the corn belt. it will be noticeably warmer on
sunday with high temperatures into the middle 80s. with better
moisture transport still displaced to the west, sfc dew points
should be limited to the mid 60s locally.

for sunday night into monday, some subtle positive height tendencies
are expected across the western great lakes downstream of more
substantial upper trough tracking across southern
saskatchewan/manitoba. eastward progression of the upper ridge axis
and this upper trough riding this ridge should result in some
veering of low level flow late monday and eastward advection of
richer low level moisture across corn belt/mid ms valley. this
period will also mark the beginning of a stronger mid level thermal
ridge building across the area. a few showers and storms are
possible as this mid level thermal ridge builds in later monday
night but confidence in precip is low. the main weather story for
tuesday/wednesday will focus on building heat and humidity with
a potential of heat indices from the mid 90s to around 100 each
afternoon.

on wednesday, the aforementioned upper trough will be tracking
across the western great lakes and eventually eastern great lakes
wednesday evening. an associated frontal boundary may be focal point
for isolated-scattered showers and storms somewhere across great
lakes region, but questions remain as to instability magnitudes
given presence of warm mid level thermal profiles and good
possibility that sfc/near sfc convection is suppressed. may need
to watch for any southward migrating outflows from great lakes
convection aiding in convective development later wednesday.

a period of cold advection is expected wed night/thu as this
front drops into the region. medium range guidance deterministic
solutions differ sharply by next thu/fri, but overall ensemble
mean trend is for some subtle amplification of longwave western
conus trough-central conus ridge-eastern conus trough pattern.
multi-ensesmble mean position of upper ridge axis is west of the
local area which would keep greater heat concerns west of the
local area thursday through saturday. however, occasional short
waves in northwest flow aloft and potential episodes of positive
low-mid level theta-e advection accompanying these waves may
provide some additional chances of rain in the days 5 to 7
period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 155 am edt sat aug 29 2026

vfr conditions are expected this period. some patchy shallow fog
is possible again this morning, but expecting these impacts to
be mainly for outlying areas and not direct impacts to
kfwa/ksbn. northern indiana remains on western periphery of an
expansive low level anticyclone with weak southeast flow less
than 5 knots overnight, becoming south 5 to 10 knots during the
day today. ongoing convection across eastern sd this morning
will likely augment a mid/upper level trough which will work
into the southern great lakes region this evening. isentropic
ascent and return of low/mid level moisture could yield some
weak elevated instability for some showers to develop across far
northern indiana tonight. given highly elevated nature to this
instability, confidence remains too low to include any precip
mention at the terminals at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
744
fxus63 kdtx 290726
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
326 am edt sat aug 29 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures with dry weather through most of the day
today.

- increasing chances for showers and storms tonight through
tomorrow. shower and storm chances continue through the early week.

- humidity builds for the early to mid week period.

&&

.discussion...

rapid thunderstorm development is ongoing across the northern plains
early this morning along the nose of a strengthening southerly llj.
this activity is expected to organize into an mcs and progress
through the upper midwest today before traversing into the great
lakes tonight into early tomorrow. given little to no instability
across the great lakes, a weakening trend of this complex remains
favored, although latest hi-res guidance brings some increasing
confidence that portions of the mcs can reach southeast michigan.

this southerly low-level flow across the plains will fold from iowa
into wisconsin through the morning hours and while the
aforementioned mcs is expected to outpace the nascent moisture
source, the nocturnal reinforcement of the llj could support
redevelopment or reinvigoration of showers and embedded
thunderstorms along the backside of the mcs despite limited
instability. this can support rain and thunderstorm chances into the
early afternoon across se mi. additionally this corridor of enhanced
theta-a will strengthen isentropic ascent along or north of the i-69
corridor, providing continued support for showers and thunderstorms
into the latter half of the day. development along this convergent
boundary in the afternoon/evening would likely be a little more
localized. overall there remains uncertainty regarding how these
individual potential rounds of precipitation will evolve and
overlap, but confidence has increased in a considerably more
unsettled sunday.

given the above, confidence is increasing that nbm temperatures are
likely overdone on sunday. an active convective pattern and
persistent cloud cover will limit meaningful insolation. if the more
active setup plays out as projected, highs will be capped in the
70s, with low 80s possible only where coverage is reduced for a
longer period of time.

a very moist and active pattern will persist in the early and
midweek period. ensemble guidance highlights strong west to east
integrated water vapor transport across the region into wednesday.
pw values of 1.75 to 2.00" and warm-cloud depths approaching 13kft
will support efficient rainfall production. mid-level disturbances
within quasi-zonal flow under this setup will bring multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. repeated convection
along the same areas will bring a localized flooding risk. in the
same regard for sunday temperatures, early week highs will be
conditional on cloud coverage and shower chances. temperatures will
likely need to be tempered down if new guidance highlights se mi as
a susceptible corridor for repeated precipitation.

&&

.marine...

influence of high pressure wanes this morning as it shifts to the
northeast with the central great lakes holding on its westernmost
fringe. this allows for modest southwest winds to develop during the
day with gusts holding aob 20kts, save for central lake huron where
favorable fetch could allow for up to 25kts. active pattern returns
by sunday as developing low pressure over the northern plains lifts
a warm front through the area ushering in a more humid airmass
leading numerous shower/storm chances sunday into monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1139 pm edt fri aug 28 2026

aviation...

the influence of a weak gradient flow as a result of sfc high
pressure anchored over the eastern great lakes will sustain light
winds through daybreak saturday. an increasing south gradient on
saturday will support a slight uptick in wind speeds. upstream warm
air advection will drive ample mid and high clouds into the region
in the afternoon. while there may be some diurnal cloud development,
available guidance strongly supports vfr conditions through the day
saturday.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.