Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
979
fxus61 kcle 091754
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1254 pm est tue dec 9 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure moving through the northern great lakes will extend
a warm front across the area today. strong low pressure will
pass north of lake erie on wednesday and extend a cold front
across the area. a trough will set up over the lake on thursday
and brief high pressure will enter for thursday night. the
pattern will continue to be unsettled going into the weekend.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
plenty of active weather on tap over the next 36 hours as a
series of upper level troughs and surface low pressure systems
move through the great lakes region. for the local area, the
main concerns will be light widespread snow across the northern
half of the area today, accumulating snow in nw pa tonight into
wednesday, and elevated winds with the second system moving
through the region.

a low pressure system is entering lake superior this morning
with an associated warm front well to the south over illinois.
this front will continue to progress east overnight into
tuesday. on the cold side of the front, snow is expected with
support from an upper trough also moving through the great lakes
region. overall, the trend with this low and snow has been
further north and less impactful, but will continue to time out
a band of categorical pops for the northern third of the area
and a daytime accumulation of up to 0.5" to 1" for areas
closest to lake erie. behind the warm front, expecting
temperatures to warm considerably from recent days into the 30s
for most. there will be a break in precipitation this afternoon
and evening, as this first system races away from the forecast
area.

the more impressive of the two low pressure systems will arrive
tonight and pass north of lake erie on wednesday with an
associated cold front tailing through the area wednesday
afternoon and evening. given moderating temperatures across the
region ahead of this system, most precipitation will begin as a
rain/snow mix or all rain across the forecast area. the lone
exception will be in nw pa, where some trapped near-surface
freezing temperatures will remain and the initial precipitation
type may be freezing rain/drizzle. eventually, the residual warm
nose will get wiped out and there will be a transition to all
snow in nw pa. for much of the area, the rain or rain/snow mix
will likely not be too impactful, other than melting some of the
snow pack that has lasted a couple of weeks. however, for nw pa,
the timing of the system is coming together where there may be
an intense band of snow during the pre-dawn hours of wednesday
into the wednesday morning commute. this will be due in large
part to the strong lift from the incoming upper trough and
support from the left exit region of the upper jet. the snowfall
trend for nw pa continues to trend higher with 3-5" of snow
expected before snow mixes with rain late wednesday morning ahead
of the cold front. therefore, have hoisted a winter weather
advisory for southern erie and crawford counties in pa from 1 am
to 10 pm on wednesday.

as snow is falling in northwest pa, the surface low will be
passing north of lake erie and extending a cold front across the
area. ahead of this front, a strong low level jet will be moving
through the region and should do fairly well mixing to the
surface and suspect that there will be southwest wind gusts in
the 40 to 45 mph range. there are some probabilities suggesting
that surface wind gusts could reach 50 mph for nw oh and the
lake erie shoreline areas and a wind advisory would be needed if
trends increase. with the frontal passage itself, there will be
a quick drop in temperatures and a rapid change to snow for the
area. snow accumulations for areas outside of nw pa with the
front would be up to 0.5" of new snow. high temperatures on
wednesday will be earlier in the day before the front in the 30s
and perhaps some lower 40s.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
the main forecast question for wednesday night through thursday night
will be how much lake effect snow will there be in northeast
ohio and northwest pa before winds back ahead of the next system
on friday. the thermodynamics for lake effect snow appear pretty
good early on with -12 to -14 c at 850 mb and some residual
remaining across the region. there will also be northwest flow
over the area, which will be a shorter fetch for lake erie but
allow for lake huron to potentially get involved for a stronger
multi-band setup. at this point, there is uncertainty on where a
stronger band would be with the average location likely on the
nw/pa border. backing winds with time would shift these bands
further east and snow activity within the forecast area would
shrink with time and become just light snow showers. if a more
dominant band appears likely to to impact ne oh/nw pa, the
winter winter advisory will likely need to be extended/expanded
as needed for wednesday night into thursday.

a weak low pressure system will move through the ohio valley on
friday and bring a band of widespread snow to the forecast area.
right now, believe that there could be an inch or so of new snow
for the entire area. this system will bring a touch warmer low
level temperatures and this may allow for any lake effect behind
this system to be slower to start until later into the weekend.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
for the weekend into next week, the pattern returns to very cold
with more lake effect snow for ne oh/nw pa. a strong upper
trough will dig into the great lakes region and extend a cold
front through the area on saturday morning. this will allow for
a more favorable air mass to tap into the residual moisture from
friday`s low pressure system and allow for some accumulating
lake effect snow in ne oh/nw pa. there is still plenty of
uncertainty with the placement, timing, and intensity of snow,
but the weekend will have some snow activity to be concerned
about. the broader impacting feature will be temperatures
returning to the teens/20s for highs and lows in the single
digits/teens. winds will be elevated over the weekend, so wind
chills near or below zero are on the table. there could be some
reprieve later next week with high pressure eventually entering
the region and moderating some temperatures and allowing lake
effect to break up a bit.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
as of about 1740z, light to moderate snow was moving east across
far northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. this will
produce a period of non-vfr conditions at keri for the first
couple of hours of the taf period before snow exits to the east.
otherwise, mvfr ceilings will likely persist at ktol through
about 21z before the lower ceilings lift north. conditions will
deteriorate later tonight as low pressure moves east into the
lower great lakes. this low will most likely move northeast just
to the north of lake erie into wednesday, lifting a warm front
across the region tonight and dragging a cold front east into
the local area towards the end of the taf period. snow or a
rain/snow mix (with a small chance of a very brief period of
freezing rain in portions of ne oh/nw pa) will lift northeast
into the western half of the cwa near or shortly after 03z with
precip reaching keri by 06z. precip will likely transition to
rain from west to east for a few hours wednesday morning into
the afternoon, however ptype may transition back to snow at
western terminals behind the cold front right around 18z
wednesday. ptype may change in subsequent updates as confidence
in temperatures at the onset increases.

ceilings and visibilities will deteriorate with the arrival of
precip with mvfr vsbys/cigs developing with the onset of precip
and ifr (and possibly lifr conditions) anticipated within a
few hours of precip onset. there may be a period of lighter
precip or lower coverage in rain/snow mid to late morning into
the afternoon, but expect fog/mist and low stratus to keep
cigs/vsbys relatively low through the end of the taf period.

winds will be out of the south/southwest at 10 to 16 knots with
gusts to 20 to 30 knots this afternoon into this evening before
southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 to
35+ knots late tonight through the end of the taf period. winds
will become more westerly at ktol/kfdy behind the cold front
wednesday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr is expected wednesday with rain and/or a wintry
mix of rain and snow transitioning back over to snow wednesday
evening. periods of snow will be possible thursday through
sunday, especially in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania.


&&

.marine...
unsettled and rough marine conditions are expected on lake erie
today through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend.
a low pressure system will track across the upper great lakes
region today increasing the southerly flow over lake erie 15 to
25 knots and waves building, especially in the open water. a
stronger low pressure system will deepen to 29.20 inches as it
tracks through the great lakes late tonight into wednesday.
southwesterly winds will increase 35 to 40 knot gales late
tonight and wednesday. waves will build to 8 to 13 feet in the
open water late tonight through wednesday evening. there are
small craft advisories in effect today into tonight. gale
warnings will take in effect late tonight through wednesday
evening. as the strong low pressure system exits the region
wednesday night, the flow will become west-northwestlery 15 to
25 knots. additional sca will be needed after the gale warning
expires wednesday night through thursday.

high pressure will build in over lake erie thursday night into
friday with a brief lull in the winds and waves. another clipper
system and cold front will sweep across the great lakes on
saturday with a return of westerly winds 15 to 30 knots and
higher waves. additional sca will likely be needed this weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 1 am to 10 pm est wednesday for
paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez142.
small craft advisory until 4 am est wednesday for lez143>149.
gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est wednesday for lez143>149-
163>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sefcovic
near term...sefcovic
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
439
fxus63 kiwx 091743
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1243 pm est tue dec 9 2025

.key messages...

- light snow diminishing this morning. snow this evening
changing to rain overnight as temps warm. there may be a brief
period of freezing rain or sleet at the onset this evening,
with potential for slick roads. little to no snow accumulation
expected.

- a rain snow mix will change to all snow by wed afternoon and
evening. lake effect snow persists into wed night. snowfall
amounts around 1 inch or less expected, with the greatest
totals near lake michigan.

- turning much colder this weekend with light snow at times.
wind chills mainly zero to -15. heavy snow is not expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 419 am est tue dec 9 2025

challenges this forecast package include the onset and timing
of precipitation, types of precipitation including the chance
for brief freezing rain producing light icing, and snowfall
amounts starting this afternoon after the rain or mixed
precipitation changes to all snow. light snow was spreading into
northwest indiana, but was still west of south bend as of 345
am edt. bufkit soundings were showing a fairly dry subcloud
layer southwest of warsaw. given radar and surface observations,
trends, and the latest model data light snow is expected to
accumulate less than 1 inch mainly north of the toll road today.

the soundings also showed mid levels cooling well before the
next round of precipitation beginning later tonight. the cold
front should move across the area early wednesday with a fairly
rapid changeover from rain to snow. a brief period of freezing
rain is possible. most of the forecast area should change over
to snow by late morning with nearly all areas becoming just snow
by mid afternoon wednesday. given the long cold pattern since
late november and given the cold pavement temperatures, it is
likely there will be some slippery spots on rural roads where
temperatures have not been warm enough long enough to melt the
snow.

thursday is on the threshold of another long and cold period
with highs often below 20 degrees and lows in the single digits.
wind chills will often be from -15 to +5 degrees.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1242 pm est tue dec 9 2025

the next weather system to impact the great lakes region will
drop southeast toward southern mi as an upper trof digs into the
region. a trailing cold front will traverse both terminal sites
wednesday morning with winds turning northwest toward the end
of the fcst period.

strong southwest llvl winds will cause the temperature profile
to warm enough to produce rain before eventually mixing and
changing to all snow by late morning on wednesday. wind shear
will be an issue for both sites with kfwa experiencing a longer
duration. mvfr cigs this aftn will lower to ifr overnight at
both sites, around 06z at ksbn and not until mid morning at
kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est wednesday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...mf

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
116
fxus63 kdtx 091755
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1255 pm est tue dec 9 2025

.key messages...

- snowfall resumes tonight, then changes over to mostly rain for
parts of the region early wednesday morning.

- a winter weather advisory is in effect tonight through wednesday
afternoon from m-46 north where new snowfall totals of 3-5 inches
are expected.

- colder air returns wednesday evening.

- daily snow chances exist from thursday onward.

- the next arctic airmass arrives over the weekend with potential
for sub-zero morning wind chills.

&&

.aviation...

mvfr ceilings dominate the afternoon period in the wake of the
morning clipper with low chances for patchy freezing drizzle or mist
mainly limited to fnt and mbs where low-level moisture is more
abundant. the next system is quick to arrive later this evening,
bringing widespread normal to wet snow that becomes briefly heavy
between 03 and 09z. ifr to lifr conditions are likely during this
window and into early wednesday. model data has trended colder with
this system, so snow will be the primary precip type for most
locations, though detroit sites are still expected to transition to
a wet snow/rain mix wednesday morning. the center of the low tracks
west-east along the i-69 to m-59 corridor wednesday morning,
maintaining ifr to lifr conditions and sw gusty winds across the
detroit sites. a southward moving cold front sweeps across the area
wednesday morning, changing snow character to more showery and
producing gusty north to northwest wind. snow showers gradually
taper off to flurries through wednesday afternoon.

for dtw...heaviest snowfall rates and lifr conditions are favored
between 04 and 09z tonight. transition timing to rain or rain/snow
mix still carries some uncertainty and may be delayed from the
current forecast if the colder trend continues with this system.
snow showers then become favored after 13z with decreasing
probability for precip through the late morning and afternoon. the
wind shift to nw is currently expected between 17 and 19z wednesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through the forecast period.

* high for precipitation type as snow this evening and overnight.
medium for a transition to rain or rain/snow early wednesday, then
high for a transition back to snow later wednesday morning.

* low for ceiling/visibility at or below 200 ft / 1/2 mile overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 845 am est tue dec 9 2025

update...

narrow band of moderate to heavy snow is making its way across se
michigan with visibility readings as low as a quarter mile. the
narrow nature of the band is a product of steep mid-level lapse
rates, with 3-6km agl lapse rates of 7.8 c/km sampled by the 12z
kdtx raob. indications are for most areas to see a quick burst of
snowfall rates in excess of a half inch per hour, while the
residence time of this band over any one location is limited given
its eastward propagation around 35 mph. in general a quick 0.5-1
inch is expected before the band quickly exits into ontario between
15-16z (10a-11a local). water vapor imagery does show a more
enhanced area of ascent that spans from nrn lower mi into the
thumb/saginaw valley, but the advertised development of snow showers
behind the main line has yet to materialize. with that in mind,
thinking snow totals in the thumb are more likely to be in the 1.0-
1.5" range with decreased confidence to reach 2". nudged snowfall
totals down a touch in the thumb as a result.

dry slot is evident in both the sharp cutoff in radar returns and
satellite presentation. latest upstream observations are not showing
a widespread freezing drizzle scenario, but have seen a few sites
come in with up (e.g. kbtl most recently). will maintain the
inherited patchy freezing drizzle mention.

prev discussion...
issued at 400 am est tue dec 9 2025

discussion...

a very complex and thermodynamically sensitive setup commences this
morning due to two multi-faceted wintry clippers affecting southeast
michigan during the next 36 hours.

the speed max tied to the first clipper system is currently digging
through wisconsin based on goes vapor imagery (channel 9). preceding
adiabatic ascent-driven snowfall has quickly filled in over
southwest michigan early this morning. this wave of snowfall expands
across the rest of the state (from west to east) over the next
several hours, leading to minor accumulations for the forecast area.
latest consensus model data shows consistency in a fresh coating
south of i-94 to around 1.5 inches further north by midday. isolated
totals up to 2 inches are possible across the northern half of the
cwa (north of m-59). this upper bound is contingent on the
appropriate balance between peak moisture advection and proximity to
the track of the vortmax. hi-res guidance differs from most global
solutions in handling the axis of maximum qpf (greater than 0.20
inches). generally, the coarser models are more bullish across the
thumb region, while the cams are more dispersive throughout the
northern half (to even two thirds) of southeast michigan. most of
the event snowfall should occur along the front-end of the system,
between 07z and 17z. the bulk of the fluffy snow accumulations will
occur during a 2-4 hour period with peak rates between 0.25 and 0.50
inches per hour.

the area of lowest expected snow totals, washtenaw, lenawee, and
monroe counties, will also be the most susceptible to a period of
light freezing rain/drizzle. drier and warmer westerly mid-level
flow (as addressed in the last several discussions) will erode ice
nuclei and frozen hydrometeor concentrations by midday. lower column
forcing weakens by then, therefore lingering 2-3 kft stratiform
cloud depths should only be capable of inconsequential freezing
drizzle atop fresh snowpack. fram data is lean on ice qpf which
justifies minimal coverage of measurable ice accretions. assuming
the southern three counties receive even just a thin coating of new
snow this morning, they should be spared from transportation
impacts, especially once 2m temperatures climb above freezing. in
the lower likelihood scenario exhibiting a lack of accumulating snow
and a slower rise in temperatures above freezing, there could be
minor travel concerns.

given forecast totals at/below 2 inches, and negligible icing
amounts, no headlines were issued for today`s clipper. note that
areas of light icing (up to a thin glaze) are also possible
northward, up to the i-69 corridor.

as for tonight into wednesday, qpf has generally trended upward with
broader coverage of higher snow accumulations, attributed to a
second clipper system that follows in quick succession. lots of
variability in modeled snow amounts relative to minute differences
in latitude before the system`s cold front clears through, roughly
between 15z and 18z. a preference toward snow as the dominant
precipitation type (compared to rain) is evident in the latest model
adjustments, revealing potential for the highest event totals over
the central portion of the forecast area. however, this setup is
highly sensitive to the track of the surface low and its
accompanying warm advection belt. southwest flow tonight might allow
lows to hold above freezing along the michigan/ohio border. a
changeover to rain is then expected to bleed northward early
wednesday morning after earlier re-saturation aloft degrades. as
this process unfolds heading into sunrise, locations that cling to
snow longer will see a drop in slrs amidst 33-34f snowfall.

a winter weather advisory has been issued for tonight through
wednesday afternoon from m-46 north where new snowfall totals of 3-5
inches are expected. this grouping will be aided by the lowest
probability of a changeover to rain, prior to the passage of the
cold front and related cold advection. although the included
counties will be offset from the qpf bullseye, the preservation of
snow throughout the second clipper event should lead to the highest
overall snowfall totals. this assumption relies on forecast
thermodynamic profiles holding relative to the positioning of the
baroclinic zone. short-notice adjustments to headlines may be needed
later today to expand the advisory southward should the warm sector
progression underperform. even just an hour or two of partitioning
peak qpf to snow (instead of rain) between m-59 and m-46 could lead
to a spike in snowfall totals worthy of an advisory.

post-frontal airmass could spur a few flurries, but conditions
should largely dry out wednesday evening with temperatures falling
back below normal into the extended forecast period. some lake
effect snow will be possible thursday, but low-level cyclonic flow
trajectories are not favorable for widespread lake effect for
southeast michigan. still some solutions that brush a third clipper
past southern lower on friday, and latest nbm pops reflect this. the
next release of arctic air slams in saturday with a drop-off in 850
mb temperatures and potential for sub-zero morning wind chills each
morning.

marine...

a warm front is lifting through the central great lakes this morning
producing snow. wind gusts look to reach at least 30 knots across
all marine waters, with brief gales even possible in the 12-15z
tuesday time frame. a larger and stronger low pressure system is
then on track to move through lower michigan tuesday night into
wednesday producing widespread snow and even rain over lake st.
clair and lake erie. the southwest low level jet ahead of the looks
to be very strong, and low level profiles may not warm quick enough
to stabilize the near water surface. thus, it is looking like a
short period of gales will occur over western lake erie, with even
brief isolated gusts to gales over lake st. clair. on the flip side,
with the water temp near freezing over the nearshore waters and some
ice development, it may be just enough to limit mixing and keep
gusts to gales less than 3 hours. as usual with offshore flow
nearing gales, there will be heighten concern for low water
conditions across the western basin of lake erie.

rush of cold air behind the passage of the low will then support
strong northwest winds wednesday afternoon and early wednesday
evening. isolated, brief gusts to gales remain likely, but the cold
advection is exhausted quickly and the pressure gradient relaxes by
thursday morning. with the short duration and the marginal nature of
the gales, elected not to issue gale watch and small craft
advisories carry right into wednesday night. the cold airmass (850
mb temps in the negative lower teens/around -10 c) looks to persist
to close our the work week, supporting moderate winds and scattered
snow showers.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
wednesday for miz047>049-053>055.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am est thursday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
update.......mv
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.