Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
151
fxus61 kcle 022342
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
642 pm est mon mar 2 2026

.what has changed...
overall, the forecast remains on track and significant changes were
needed with this update. there is still potential for a brief period
of freezing rain across nw pa and possibly ne oh early tuesday
morning, but confidence remains low.

&&

.key messages...
1) a brief period of freezing rain is possible across the
northeastern part of the area early tuesday morning, however
confidence and impacts remain low at this point.

2) a warmer and wet weather pattern is expected tuesday through the
weekend. nuisance flooding is possible in typical problem spots.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will begin to lift north from the ohio valley tonight
into tuesday and a shortwave will eject into the area early tuesday
morning. this will likely result in scattered light precipitation
lifting northeast towards the area late tonight into early tuesday.
a brief period of mixed precipitation or freezing rain remains
possible at the onset, although confidence in overall
precipitation chances and the resulting impacts remains low.
the precipitation will likely combat lingering low-level dry air
as it moves into the area, which could result in drier weather,
virga, and/or very light precipitation with more widespread
precipitation beginning after temperatures warm above freezing
after sunrise. the freezing rain potential will be higher if
precip starts earlier than currently forecast. surface
temperatures will also be quite marginal and will dictate
precipitation type; colder temperatures will result in a higher
likelihood of freezing rain. either way, the greatest likelihood
of freezing rain is across portions of interior nw pa
(primarily crawford county) and possibly portions of far
northeastern ohio. ice accumulations should be light (a trace to
maybe a few hundredths of an inch) and any resulting impacts
should improve as temperatures warm above freezing during the
day thursday. will need to keep an eye cams and
forecast/observed soundings; an sps or even a short-fused winter
weather advisory may be needed if the forecast trends more
pessimistic.

key message 2...
a warmer and wet weather pattern is expected tuesday through the
end of the week as a frontal boundary wavers across the region
and a series of disturbances track along the front. pops are
highest between tuesday and thursday with a period of lower pops
on friday before a cold front moves across the region at some
point during the weekend. the highest rain amounts will likely
occur across the southern portion of the area (generally south
of u.s. route 30) where total rainfall between tuesday and
thursday night could add up to 1.5 to locally 2+ inches.
elsewhere, most locations should receive up to 1 to 1.5 inches
of rain in the span of three days. in general, the flooding risk
remains relatively low, but can`t rule out minor flooding on
the more responsive creeks and streams primarily in the southern
part of the cwa and in poor drainage/urban areas. there may be
sufficient instability for thunderstorms later wednesday into
thursday and with the cold front over the weekend.

temperatures will trend warmer throughout the week. highs in
the 40s and lower 50s tuesday will give way to highs in the 60s
and possibly 70s friday into saturday. after tonight, low
temperatures will likely remain above freezing for several days.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
the main aviation weather concern with this 00z taf update will
be conditions going from vfr to ifr tonight into tuesday as well
as the potential for a few hours of light freezing rain. the
overall trend will be ceilings lowering from vfr to ifr later
this evening and overnight. widespread ifr to some pockets of
lifr ceilings will be around for much of tuesday and through the
end of this taf period. there will also be widespread areas of
light fog/mist/drizzle causing visibility reduction of 2sm to
5sm late tonight and tuesday. scattered light rain showers will
move in late tonight through tuesday. with the onset of the
light rain showers could be some freezing rain before
temperatures warm up above freezing. we have this potential
mentioned in prob30 groups for most of the tafs late tonight
into early tuesday morning. winds will start out easterly 5 to
10 knots this evening. the winds will become southeasterly to
southerly by tuesday morning 5 to 10 knots then shift more
southwesterly by the end for the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr likely continues into tuesday night with rain.
occasional periods of rain late wednesday through saturday will
likely bring additional non-vfr conditions.

&&

.marine...
primarily light (15kt or less) east to northeast winds are
expected through wednesday evening across the lake. ice will
continue to want to drift west through wednesday evening. winds
gradually shift more east and then south wednesday night and
thursday as a warm front lifts towards and across lake erie.
winds then shift more south-southwest friday into the weekend. a
period of stronger southwesterly winds (to 20kt or so) is
possible friday or saturday. the wind shift will cause ice to
drift more north-northeasterly late week through the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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286
fxus63 kiwx 022256
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
556 pm est mon mar 2 2026

.key messages...

- becoming unseasonably mild thursday through saturday with highs in
the 60s to around 70 degrees.

- an extended very wet period will start tuesday with periods of
rain and isolated thunderstorms.

- rises on rivers are expected. some rivers may eventually reach
action or flood stage late this week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm est mon mar 2 2026

the upper level pattern will become somewhat zonal into wednesday
morning, resulting in little change in sfc temperatures into tuesday
night with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s (coldest
tonight). a warm front will attempt to work north across indiana and
ohio over the next 24 to 48 hours, but will face a fair amount of
resistance with a lack of any deeper waves to help move it along.
models trends overall have been confining the better chances for
measurable rainfall to central/southern in and oh starting late
tonight and persisting into wednesday. that being said, we will
still reside on the northern fringe of the overrunning moisture
which may spell a period of lighter rainfall for areas mainly along
and south of us-30. uncertainty remains as to how fast the
lighter precip advances north while temperatures north of us-30
are near/below freezing late tonight into first thing tuesday
morning. as a result, wx grids still reflect a mention of
freezing rain and/or snow for a few hours in these area, but
impacts if any would be brief.

the first shot of more meaningful moisture and associated increase
in rain chances arrives wednesday night into thursday as a trough,
currently located in northern ca, works east to nebraska by 12z wed.
a modest increase in heights will allow the frontal boundary and
associated overrunning precipitation to work further north.
highest pops will reside in this period for the area with
rainfall tapering off by thursday evening.

the active pattern will continue as a deep upper low stalls out over
the sw u.s. an even stronger surge of warm and moist air will
commence with the warm front eventually working well north into the
area. a weaker northern stream wave will arrive, accompanied by a
cool front (more expecting a drop in dewpoints vs temperatures as it
passes). better chances for showers and even some thunderstorms
exists in this period with uncertainty on the best timing and
overall amounts of precip. as a result, expected precip chances in
this period to vary quite a bit in the coming days until models can
hopefully hone in on a better solution.

few if any hydro concerns are expected given the lower flow of the
rivers, low levels in lakes and dry ground waiting to soak up the
light to moderate rain rainfall. as we get later in the week and
beyond we will need to more closely monitor the situation as
repeated round of rainfall could cause issues (moreso with respect
to rivers and maybe some low areas vs more significant flooding).

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 537 pm est mon mar 2 2026

vfr conditions prevail for ksbn through 12z tue and through
about 06z for kfwa, before lowered cigs associated with a
northbound disturbance pushes into the area bringing
precipitation across the area. at the onset of precip at both
kfwa and ksbn there is a chance of some light freezing rain
before changing over completely to rainfall. confidence in the
freezing rain is low as surface and near surface temperatures
may remain above freezing with the incoming clouds limiting
cooling and with warm advection taking place. initially mvfr
cigs as the clouds move northward but then becoming ifr after
09z tue for kfwa and after 12z tue for ksbn. lowering vsbys to mvfr
cats expected in showers at this time. easterly winds less than
10 kts becoming south to southwesterly late in this taf period,
after 18z tue.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 022339
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
639 pm est mon mar 2 2026

.key messages...

- potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the
forecast.

- there is a slight chance for a couple periods of freezing rain
tuesday morning and tuesday night.

- warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on tuesday
and wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

the western expanse of high pressure centered over new england
maintains vfr into tonight with light se wind. cirrus tied to the
southern stream jet is arriving aloft and will thicken overnight,
but lower cloud over the ohio valley stays south of the stateline
until tuesday morning. this moisture migrates north after sunrise,
reaching the detroit terminals in the 12 to 15z time frame and
spreading up to the i-69 corridor by the afternoon. this will bring
likely mvfr ceilings and pockets of light drizzle/mist but
probability for precipitation is less than 30% across the area as
most of the moisture transport occurs across ohio. if precip does
develop, a brief period of freezing drizzle would be possible for
the detroit sites during the morning before temps rise above
freezing. light wind through the day tuesday.

for dtw...10% probability for freezing drizzle exists between 11 and
16z as temps rise from the upper 20s to lower 30s. otherwise, mvfr
ceilings become likely by late morning and persist into tuesday
evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tuesday morning, high by
tuesday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm est mon mar 2 2026

discussion...

western periphery of a strong high pressure system centered over new
england has supported cloudless skies across southern michigan as
return flow gradually starts to advect in warmer temperatures
derived from the ohio valley. this has allowed temperatures to peak
in the low to mid-30s which is still below normal, however, this
will be the start of progressively warmer temperatures that continue
through the week.

for tonight and overnight, mainly dry conditions are expected to
persist for most of se mi given the lack of forcing under zonal flow
aloft. the possible exception will be across the mi/oh border up
through the northern metro region as low level moisture gradually
fills in across southern michigan under weak isentropic ascent.
modeled soundings still do not fully saturate the shallow boundary
layer thus leading to low confidence for any precipitation, however,
there is some concern that south-southeast flow could pull in some
shallow moisture off of lake erie. if this were to materialize,
soundings do highlight freezing mist/freezing drizzle as the main
p-type give surface temperatures below freezing and a 4kft wedge of
temperatures above freezing aloft with a maxt of 2.6c, where the bulk
of the low-level saturation exists. given this, will maintain a 15%
chance for freezing drizzle through the mid to late morning hours,
with trace amounts of ice accumulation possible.

temperatures rise above freezing by the afternoon, ending all
freezing drizzle concerns. low-end chances (20-30%) for a rain
shower or two will hold through the remainder of the day favored
i-69 south given continued advancement of the low-level moisture and
position of the elevated frontal boundary. highs peak in the 40s.

zonal mid-level flow holds through wednesday as high pressure
briefly fills back in across the state. this bring dry conditions
through at least the first half of the day while return flow from
the quick moving system ushers in warmer temperatures, pushing highs
in the mid to upper 40s, possible low 50s through the interior of
the cwa. this will also act to push low-level moisture back through
southern michigan, bringing low-end chances for rain showers.
increasing confidence for rain enters thursday through friday
morning as a slow-moving mid-level wave travels through the central
plains and into the southern great lakes. this wave will induce a
weak low pressure system and will drive the surface frontal boundary
into southern michigan, bringing likely rain chances. a more active
period of weather continues as a secondary stronger wave from the
four corners progresses towards the great lakes over the weekend,
possibly phasing with a secondary northern stream wave. this will
work to bring like the warmest temperatures of the week with 850mb
temperatures aoa 10c and surface temperatures aoa 60 degrees.
trailing the warmer weather will be the arrival of the wave and low,
bringing rain and thunderstorm chances saturday.

marine...

high pressure over the northeast governs conditions across the
central great lakes this evening. this provides modest southerly
flow over lake huron, but weaker easterly winds across the southern
waterways. winds broadly diminish late tonight into tuesday while an
area of troughing extends eastward through the ohio valley.
potential exists for a bit of freezing drizzle across parts of lake
st. clair and western erie early tuesday morning before changing
over to liquid rain midday. split-flow eventually arises over the
region tuesday leading to light and variable winds by tuesday
evening and through the overnight hours. dry weather and light winds
return wednesday morning as high pressure briefly spills across
lower michigan. easterly winds rise by thursday as a rain producing
warm low lifts into the south while canadian high pressure builds
into james bay. the northern half of lake huron resides within the
strongest pressure gradient with sustained winds in excess of 20
knots, but gust delta is narrow given increasing low-level stability.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...am
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.