Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
280
fxus61 kcle 090729
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
329 am edt mon mar 9 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains on track. we are expecting a weather system
to bring rain and thunderstorms midweek. by the end of the
week, a clipper system may bring a chance of rain and snow.

&&

.key messages...
1) warm, breezy conditions, and periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall as well as a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible
tuesday night into wednesday. rain may briefly transition over
to snow wednesday night into thursday.

2) a clipper system will track east across the great lakes on
friday which may bring a chance for rain and snow to the local
area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level trough will track from the central plains into
the ohio valley and great lakes region midweek. a warm front
will lift across the area on tuesday. a surface developing low
pressure system will track from the midwest and across the
southern great lakes region.

scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with with mid-
level frontogenesis will be the first round convection to impact
the region tuesday evening into overnight. instability will be
moderately unstable with deep layer shear to support some hail
potential, perhaps some damaging wind gusts as well. our area
will be in the warm sector on wednesday. pre-frontal
thunderstorms are expected during the day wednesday. the wind
field will be very strong to support organized severe
convection. the question that remains is how much instablilty
will be available to materialize due to morning showers and
considerable cloud cover. confidence in thunderstorms and
subsequent severe weather is more likely the farther south and
east you go within our forecast area.

heavy rainfall is likely during the midweek time frame. the
average qpf will be around 1.25-1.5" tuesday night through
wednesday evening. high-end localized amounts up to 2" could be
possible. localized nuisance flooding is possible. the cold
front will move through early wednesday evening. the rain
showers mad end with some wet snowflakes wednesday night.

key message 2...
a rather strong clipper system will track quickly eastward
through the upper great lakes on friday. this end of the week
system may bring a round of light rain and snow to the local
area with strong gusty winds. although some uncertainty exists
in the strength of the system, confidence is increasing for
potential wind gusts to reach at least 40 mph or higher.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr across the taf sites early this morning with mainly vfr to
persist through the taf period. recent vwp and model data
suggests a low llws threat at tol, so have removed mention in
this update. otherwise, will be watching the arrival of lower
ceilings from the southwest towards the end of the taf period.
low confidence in ceiling height precludes non-vfr mention at
this time, though may be included in future packages.

winds are generally out of the south to southwest early
this morning, 10 to 12 knots. winds will increase to 15 to 18
knots later this morning and afternoon with periodic gusts of 25
to 28 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely with showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow wednesday night into thursday. non-vfr may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on friday combined with gusty
southwest winds.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions will persist through tuesday with
generally offshore flow around 10 to 15 knots. will continue to
monitor the potential for some organized thunderstorms tuesday night
into wednesday for strong wind and hail potential, particularly
across the western basin of lake erie. otherwise, southwest winds
will increase to around 20 knots wednesday afternoon, shifting
towards the northwest and briefly increasing to 20 to 25 knots
wednesday night behind a cold front. the next period of concern
across the region will be on friday as a strong clipper system moves
east through the great lakes, ushering in south to southwest winds
of 25 to 30 knots across lake erie. winds may briefly touch gale at
times friday morning and afternoon and will continue to be
monitored.

above average temperatures and elevated winds will result in
continued shifting and decay of ice across lake erie through mid-
week.

&&

.climate...
max temperatures are forecast to approach records on tuesday,
march 10th. here are the record high temperature at area climate
sites for march 10th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
674
fxus63 kiwx 090939
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
539 am edt mon mar 9 2026

.key messages...

- warming temperatures early this week with record or near-
record high temperatures today and tuesday.

- an enhanced risk of severe storms, mainly late tuesday
afternoon into the overnight hours tuesday night. all severe
hazards are possible late tuesday afternoon into the early
overnight, eventually transitioning to a heavy rain/flooding
threat late in the night.

- a frontal boundary across the region will interact with
several other systems for periodic chances of rain and snow
late week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 355 am edt mon mar 9 2026

the overall messaging from previous few forecast cycles remains
intact. mild conditions today and tuesday with record to near record
highs today and tuesday. attention remains focused on potential
severe weather event tuesday afternoon into late tuesday night.

a low amplitude flow pattern persists across northern third of conus
this morning with a cut off upper low level low gradually working
into baja of ca region today. a strong eastern pacific jet
nosing into the pacific northwest this morning will be the
feature that allows amplification of mid and upper level trough
across the northern rockies. in the meantime, a westerly low/mid
level flow regime will advect modified warmer low level air in
the lee of the rockies into the area for much warmer
temperatures today in the upper 60s to around 70. this would
approach or break daily record highs for the date (67 degrees at
fort wayne set back in 2016 and 70 at south bend set back in
2000).

for tonight, a weak mid level trough is expected to kick east out of
the central plains allowing for some backing of low/mid level winds
and a northward surge of higher low level theta-e air from the
lower/mid ms valley. this should manifest as an increased low
level cloud deck tonight, but forecast soundings do suggest at
least the potential of some weak elevated instability being
realized for an isolated shower potential. the persistent
westerly flow regime today does advect in an elevated mixed
layer that could pose some weak convective inhibition for an 850
mb based parcel. given these uncertainties did include just a
slight chance of showers tonight into early tuesday following
this initial theta-e advection push.

the main focus for this forecast will continue to be on the later
tuesday afternoon/tuesday night period for severe weather potential.
by midday tuesday, the pacific northwest upper trough will gradually
amplify across the northern rockies inducing strengthening southwest
low level flow from eastern ks into west central indiana. this
resultant northward warm/moist advection will help accentuate
low level baroclinicity as a low level cold frontal boundary
will gradually stall across the southern great lakes early
tuesday morning. this evolution will allow for the sharpening of
a southwest to northeast oriented sfc trough tuesday from
northern missouri into northwest or west-central indiana. a
strong instability gradient is likely to accompany this synoptic
setup with 1000-2000 j/kg mlcapes to develop from central il
into portions of far northwest indiana during the afternoon. one
of the lower items of confidence with the severe potential
tuesday is timing of convective initiation due to potential
weak convective inhibition from the elevated mixed layer that
overspreads the area. while greatest chances of convective
initiation are toward tuesday evening, cannot rule out some
isolated convection developing with renewed low/mid level
theta-e advection over the pre-existing baroclinic zone during
the mid-late afternoon. some question as to whether these storms
in an earlier initiation time would be surface-based, but would
have some potential to produce hail given steep lapse rates
aloft even to the north of the sfc boundary.

one of the ingredients of concern for severe weather for this
particular event late tuesday is the kinematic wind fields. forecast
soundings continue to indicate large 0-1 and 0-2 km hodographs
given decent low level veering and strengthening speed shear
atop this stronger warm advection layer. 0-1 srh values in the
100-200 m2/s2 range appear possible in this setup. the
combination of these wind profiles, weakening of the surface-
based cin late afternoon/early evening, and presence of the
mixed layer aloft raise concern for early stages of this
potential event in discrete storm development and a supercell
mode. current indications may suggest best chance of this
initial development just to the west of the local area, but
close proximity of the instability gradient will make these
early stages something to closely monitor. besides the potential
of weak cin, lack of a clear synoptic wave to latch onto in
terms of dynamics makes onset time of threat of lower
confidence. the intensification of the low level jet during the
evening and associated strong low level moisture flux
convergence still lead to higher confidence in storms after 23
or 00z.

all severe weather hazards will be possible particularly from
onset of the event through around 06z when best instability will
be in place. in addition to tornado threat, some very large
hail up to 2" in diameter cannot be ruled out given steep lapse
rates aloft and favorable supercell wind profiles. all of the
forecast area has a severe risk tuesday night, with the greatest
chances of these higher end threats currently expected roughly
along and west of in-15 where best juxtaposition of
instability/shear profiles may exist. there remains some
uncertainty as to positioning of the low level
boundary/instability gradient, but in these setups, severe
threats can extend a ways north from the boundary position. the
western portion of iwx forecast area in northern in has been
upgraded to an enhanced risk of severe storms (level 3 of 5).
overall, confidence is on the medium to higher side regarding
severe weather occurring in the local area, but more of a medium
confidence in exact locations (depending on boundary placement)
and low to medium confidence in onset threat timing (mid
afternoon vs mid evening).

after 06z, the expectation is that boundary parallel wind fields
will allow for congealing storms and gradually lessening of higher
end severe threat potential, and a transition to heavy rain/isolated
wind threat into early wednesday morning as the stronger low level
flow helps to create weak mbe velocities locally. one trend in
guidance has been toward less phasing of pacific short wave and cut-
off sw conus upper trough, allowing for slightly more
progression of low level features into wednesday and instability
axis being shunted se of the area by midday. this should act to
keep main severe threat southeast of the local area during the
day wednesday, but a concern for pockets of heavier rain will
shift across southeast areas early wednesday am.

no major changes were made to the long term period as a very active
eastern pacific pattern continues with several short waves moving
across the region with brief episodes of enhanced pacific origin
moisture. given progressive nature of these successive short waves
and strong baroclinicity, confidence in track/precip types is
low at this time but periodic higher chances of rain and snow
will continue thursday into early next week. after brief warmup
for friday. temps should cool back to more seasonable levels for
weekend with indications of below normal winter-like temps
toward day 7-8.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 538 am edt mon mar 9 2026

a quiet and dry day is ahead with no changes needed for the 12z
tafs. southwest winds may frequently gust as high as 20-25 kts
today (especially this afternoon and evening) as a tightening
pressure gradient develops over the great lakes. winds diminish
after sunset tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
639
fxus63 kdtx 090722
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
322 am edt mon mar 9 2026

.key messages...

- ample sun and very warm today.

- isolated showers possible tuesday, becoming wetter with rising
thunderstorm potential tuesday night into wednesday. the potential
exists for severe storms early wednesday morning.

- rain showers change over to melting snow showers by wednesday
night with minimal accumulations.

- a clipper system may produce wintry precipitation friday.

&&

.discussion...

straight zonal flow over the northern plains into southern canada
today will result in broad southwesterly flow across much of
southern lower michigan and aid in the development of a stationary
front south of the straits down to saginaw bay. consistent model
signal continues with clear skies today and temperatures warming
into the middle to upper 60s, approximately 25 degrees above normal.
decent model signal in low level, 925-700mb, thetae advection into
southern lower michigan. the moisture advection is expected to both
increase clouds tonight and reinforce the stationary front a little
farther south, somewhere between i 69 and saginaw bay to begin the
day tuesday.

significant uncertainty exists on potential high temperatures for
tuesday. question comes down to how aggressive the backdoor marine
release will be monday evening and the prevalence of clouds during
the daytime tuesday. nbm 5.0 25th percentile suggests 40s for the
northern third of the cwa and lower to middle 60s south of m 59,
whereas the 75th percentile has middle 50s to lower 60s for the tri
cities/flint and middle to upper 70s for metro detroit. the forecast
resides with cooler temperatures near lake huron and saginaw bay
with a northeast wind.

merging of northern and southern stream upper level jet axes will
then force a frontal wave and surface low pressure reflection
through lower michigan late tuesday night. there are a number of
concerns for the tuesday night period.

1. potential for isolated slippery spots due to freezing rain across
midland and bay counties and far northern thumb. tricky forecast
with regards to freezing rain potential for portions of midland,
bay, saginaw, tuscola and huron counties tues evening/night because
of the significant warm air advection that is forecasted to occur.
model soundings show temperatures as warm as 13.5c at 2.7 kft agl
providing heat content to the rain droplets. there does appear to be
some feedback/contamination of lake huron ice cover on surface
temperatures immediately downstream of the lake. there is low
confidence that the very shallow subfreezing layer will be able to
persist. the forecast continues to reside on the warm side and will
need to be monitored.

2. the potential for severe weather early wednesday morning with
likely thunderstorm activity. differences exist but both the
deterministic 3km nam and the hrdps support the surface warm front
lifting in vicinity of washtenaw county and metro detroit between 07-
12z wednesday. forecast soundings support very strong static
stability for a greater portion of the forecast area, but neutral
stability to convectively unstable conditions will be possible along
and south of the front. will need more cam data inside of the window
to get a better handle on storm mode and potential severe weather
threats. at this point, a long hodograph and convective available
potential energy to 1000 j/kg suggests strong wind gusts/large
hail/and a tornado threat for those areas along and to the south of
the warm front. legit surface low and nose to +50 knot low level jet
brings a strongly forced event. the latest day 2 outlook issued by
spc has a slight risk designation for severe weather south and west
of a line from howell to monroe and marginal risk for much of the
area including, saginaw, port huron and metro detroit.

3. placement of heavy rainfall axis and qpf amounts. with the
significant warm air advection and low level jet forcing pwats are
forecasted to reach 1.40 inches wednesday morning which is at the
daily maximum for dtx raob data. nbm 5.0 data supports widespread
rain with the interquartile range between .75 inch and 1.75 inch
with highest amounts across the south. the biggest question is
whether or not a favorable corridor will set up for any training
convection. need to get the event window with the cam solutions but
collection of mpas runs suggests convection will be relatively
progressive. wpc has designated all of the area as a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall.

composite trough axis and associated absolute vorticity continues
height falls into the late wednesday period. model data supports a
period of deformation forcing that should result in a changeover to
snow for the evening period. the potential exists for a minor snow
accumulation across bay and midland counties wednesday evening and
melting snow for most areas.

dynamic pacific shortwave continues to be advertised for lower
michigan friday. depth of saturation, environmental profile of the
front, and projected uvvs through 700-500mb and the dgz suggests
accumulating snow for a portion of the forecast area. pops currently
reside in the 50 to 70% range.

&&

.marine...

southwesterly winds quickly restrengthen early this morning as a
second low slides along the far northern shore of lake superior.
overall setup is similar to sunday though with stronger warm
advection resulting in more neutral to stable overlake thermal
profiles. this further limits sporadic gale potential over central
lake huron with 25-30kt gusts more likely (20-25kt winds over the
rest of the region). a diffuse pressure gradient sets up across the
central great lakes by late today as the secondary low reaches
northern quebec allowing winds to turn lighter through tuesday.
active pattern and stronger flow return by midweek as deepening
plains low pressure tracks over the central/southern great lakes.

&&

.hydrology...

widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop tuesday night into
wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward across lower
michigan. expected rainfall totals range from 0.75-1.75 inches by
wednesday evening, followed by a changeover to melting snow from
north to south. ensemble data suggests rises on area rivers will be
expected with a chance for minor flood stage for river systems.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1207 am edt mon mar 9 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through this taf period. high clouds
have increased in parts of southeast michigan this evening
downstream of a cold front that will slowly slide into the region
late today into tonight. a few scattered gusts to 20 knots have been
observed early tonight. expect lighter winds to around 10 knots will
largely hold through the rest of the night. llws concerns remain
through about 12z as a 40-45 knot low level jet moves in atop the
lighter surface winds. will see a return to mostly clear skies with
southwest winds gusting to around 25 knots during the day with a
potential for some sct/bkn lower vfr clouds to arrive after 00z this
evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......kdk
hydrology....cb
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.