Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
804 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

.what has changed...
our forecast high and low temperatures have trended warmer prior
to wednesday`s strong cold front passage. severe convective
weather concerns are increasing, especially for tuesday
afternoon through tuesday night. please see discussion below
and spc`s convective weather outlook for more info.

&&

.key messages...
1.) active weather returns tonight and especially tuesday through
wednesday. severe thunderstorms are possible on tuesday into
wednesday.

2.) primarily colder temperatures and additional periods of
unsettled weather are expected later this week through monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

cyclonic sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through wednesday night as a primary
mid/upper-level trough deepens and approaches our region from the
west. at the surface, a strong cold front continues to approach from
the northern great lakes and upper ms valley before essentially
stalling in vicinity of the southwestern great lakes, southern
on/lake erie, and the qc/new england border tonight through tuesday
night as multiple, weak lows move ne`ward along the front, which
will cause the front to waver somewhat. on wednesday through
wednesday night, a stronger low is still expected to deepen as it
tracks ne`ward along the front, from the southwestern great lakes to
southern qc. this evolution of the low should allow the trailing and
strong cold front to sweep se`ward across our region late wednesday
afternoon through the evening. behind the front, a surface ridge
builds from the north-central united states through daybreak
thursday. net low-level waa in the warm sector will contribute to
overnight lows reaching the upper 40`s to 50`s tonight and the 50`s
to lower 60`s tuesday night, which will be well-above average for
this time of year. afternoon highs should reach mainly the upper
60`s to lower 70`s on tuesday and wednesday, respectively. near-
record warm high temperatures are expected on both days. strong low-
level caa behind the cold front will contribute to lows reaching the
mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak thursday.

fair weather persists for the time being as a surface ridge
continues to exit se`ward from our region, ahead of the
aforementioned front, and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence.
overnight tonight, especially after midnight, isolated showers may
blossom over our cwa, especially over and near lake erie, as a low-
level return flow of warm/humid air originating over the gulf
undergoes isentropic ascent aloft and the development of a nocturnal
low-level jet (llj) in roughly the 850-700 mb layer strengthens the
moist isentropic ascent. this ascent may release weak, yet
sufficient elevated cape to generate a few thunderstorms, especially
west of roughly i-71. the effective inflow layer is expected to
become surface-based in our cwa by late tuesday morning and then
remain so ahead of wednesday`s cold front passage as strong low-
level warm/moist air advection from the gulf continues and intervals
of sunshine/daytime heating occur from shortly after daybreak
through the afternoon on tuesday and wednesday, respectively.
periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tuesday
through wednesday, ahead of the cold front. in addition, an
extensive line of showers and thunderstorms should accompany the
front itself. weak to moderate cape, including elevated cape, is
expected to be released by the following: low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the surface front and pre-front
surface trough axes accompanying the aforementioned shortwave
troughs aloft; moist isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave
trough axes and along the upper-reaches of the front. this
isentropic ascent is expected to be enhanced by renewed llj
development in roughly the 925-850 mb layer tuesday evening through
mid-morning on wednesday. tropospheric winds increasing
significantly with height will contribute to moderate effective bulk
shear tonight and then moderate to strong effective bulk shear
tuesday into wednesday. accordingly, organized severe thunderstorms
in the form of multicells and supercells capable of producing
damaging hail and straight-line wind gusts, respectively, are
possible tuesday through wednesday, along and ahead of the cold
front. greatest potential for damaging hail should exist tuesday
afternoon through tuesday night, when steeper mid-level lapse rates
should contribute to larger mucape in the hail growth zone and
overlap favorable atmospheric melting levels spatially. the greatest
potential for damaging wind gusts should exist tuesday afternoon
through early evening and again wednesday afternoon through early
evening, as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer yields
steep low-level lapse rates, moderate dcape, and little or no dcin.
note: a mesocyclonic tornado or two is possible late tuesday
afternoon into the predawn hours of wednesday morning amidst
favorably-low mixed layer lcl`s and sizable surface-based esrh
stemming from low-level winds veering/strengthening significantly
with height in vicinity of the surface front, which may be draped
near the southern shore of lake erie on most of tuesday afternoon
into the early evening. then during tuesday night, the llj
development should yield greater low-level wind shear and surface-
based esrh amidst continued favorable mixed layer lcl`s, especially
in nw oh. additional note: showers and storms are expected to
produce periods of heavy rain as the low-level warm/moist air
advection from the gulf yields near-record high pwat values,
especially during the day on tuesday into wednesday. training
convection is expected along the front as mean mid-level flow
exhibits a large component parallel to the front. excessive rainfall
and localized flash flooding are not out of the question. once the
cold front sweeps se`ward through our region, rain may mix with and
then change to wet snow via nocturnal cooling, the wet-bulb effect,
and strong caa at the surface and aloft before precip along the
upper-reaches of the front exits our region. any snow accumulations
should be less than a half inch.

key message 2...

dry weather and much colder air temperatures are expected in the
cold sector on thursday as the surface ridge continues building
e`ward, a primary trough axis aloft sweeps e`ward over our region,
and shortwave ridging aloft follows. daytime highs should reach only
the 30`s in nw pa and the mid 30`s to mid 40`s in northern oh. the
ridge exits e`ward thursday night and allows a warm front to sweep
n`ward through our region as a clipper-type low pressure system
approaches from the north-central united states and vicinity. a mix
of primarily rain and snow is possible via moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front. lows should reach the mid
20`s to lower 30`s before midnight and be followed by moderating
temperatures as waa strengthens at the surface and aloft ahead of
and especially behind the surface warm front. as the clipper moves
e`ward across the northern great lakes region on friday, the
trailing cold front sweeps e`ward across our region. rain showers
along the surface cold front may be followed by a rain/snow mix
associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front as cold air
deepens behind the surface front. daytime highs are expected to
reach mainly the 40`s to lower 50`s ahead of the cold front. odds
favor dry weather friday night as a ridge at the surface and aloft
moves e`ward through our region. lows should reach the 20`s to lower
30`s amidst low-level caa behind the cold front.

primarily sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded trough axes
should impact our region this weekend through monday. at the
surface, our region should mainly be located in the cold sector, but
a warm front should sweep n`ward through our region saturday night
into sunday and be followed by the e`ward passage of a strong cold
front later sunday into sunday night. additional periods of rain
and/or snow are expected courtesy of the front passages and moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the trough axes aloft. mainly near or
below-average air temperatures are expected, but above-average high
temperatures are forecast in the warm sector on sunday.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr will prevail the rest of this evening, but clouds will lower
from southwest to northeast overnight as moisture associated
with a warm front lifts across the region. a few showers are
possible in the pre-dawn hours, but the better potential for
scattered showers has trended later into tuesday morning and
afternoon. the main impact will be clouds lowering to mvfr
tonight and tuesday morning, with periods of ifr tuesday as
well. confidence in ifr is highest near lake erie, impacting
ktol, kcle, and keri, due to a cold front settling slowly
southward late tuesday morning through the afternoon which will
turn winds more toward the ne and bring lower clouds/fog/mist
onshore. periods of ifr will occur farther south too, but it
should be more brief with lower overall confidence. by late
tuesday afternoon, the front will start to return north as a
warm front. this will shift the scattered showers further north,
so ended the vcsh at kmfd, kcak, and kyng by 22z along with
slowly improving cigs. showers will, however, persist near the
front along the lakeshore impacting ktol, kcle, and keri through
tuesday evening, and there is growing potential for some
thunderstorms around ktol and kfdy, so introduced some vcts at
the end of the period.

winds will overall be sw through tuesday, with speeds decreasing
to 5-10 knots tonight and remaining in the 5-15 knot range
tuesday. however, as the front slips south of the lakeshore late
tuesday morning into the afternoon, winds could turn ne at ktol,
kcle, and keri. confidence in this is highest at keri.

outlook...non-vfr likely with showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow wednesday night into thursday. non-vfr may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on friday combined with gusty
southwest winds.

&&

.marine...
breezy southwest winds of 10-20 knots on lake erie continue into
tonight. a weak frontal boundary settles south across the lake late
tuesday with winds shifting out of the east. thunderstorms are
possible in and near lake erie tuesday night along this boundary and
may interfere with wind conditions into wednesday. winds on
wednesday are forecast to increase into the 15-25 knot range ahead
of low pressure that will cross the lake, veering to west/northwest
behind a cold front wednesday night into thursday. waves will ramp
up to near 5 feet in ice free portions of the central basin
wednesday night.

another strong low pressure system is forecast to pass north of lake
erie on friday. winds could approach gale force on friday and the
track and strength of this system will need to be monitored.

&&

.climate...
daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records through
march 11th. here are the record warm high temperatures at area
climate sites for march 10th and 11th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...garuckas
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
649 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

.key messages...

- near-record high temperatures again tuesday.

- an enhanced risk of severe storms, mainly late tuesday
afternoon into the overnight hours tuesday night. all severe
hazards are possible, eventually transitioning to a heavy rain
and flooding threat late in the night.

- a frontal boundary across the region will interact with
several other systems for periodic chances of rain and snow
late week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

strong warm advection helps take our temperatures up to the mid 60s
to low 70s today allowing temperature records to be in play. a theta-
e plume comes in this afternoon and continues to increase through
tuesday afternoon. due to some low level moisture and an attempt at
trying to get some mid level instability in here, will continue a
low pop mention of rain, which could be drizzle, but will at least
be low stratus that continues into early tuesday and this could
affect the chance for record warm temperatures being observed
tuesday as well.

there is model agreement on bringing a vort max through the
area around or just after 18z and this may be enough to up- end
the lingering moisture and allow for some surface heating.
during this time, a frontal boundary is sinking southeastward
towards the in/mi border and a low pressure system is traversing
northeast towards the area. large scale ascent will probably
have enough lift to cause showers/storms by that point (around
00z). this is also around when a low level jet arrives. the
boundary parallel winds will allow for a tendency towards linear
cell structures, but given that the boundary will be arriving
during the day, wouldn`t be surprised to see initial discrete
structures as well. better effective shear (30+ kts) and
helicity arrives after 00z and instability will have a chance to
form during the afternoon with 60 degree dew points working
their way into southern portions of the area around 00z.
meanwhile, it is also being modeled that we`ll also have an eml
(mid level lapse rates 7+ c/km) to work with as long as it`s not
tainted upon advection up here. given these parameters in
place, all hazards will be in play so that`s damaging winds,
large hail, tornadoes, and flooding. we already have a few
rivers in action stage from the previous storm moving through
southern lower mi. in addition to boundary- parallel flow,
slowing mbe vectors overnight main contribute to the
backbuilding/training potential of storms, all making flooding
more possible.

the cold front slowly moves eastward arriving in the i-69 corridor
around 18z. so, there is some question about if we`ll be able to
remove moisture from lingering rain and recover instability in here
in time for thunderstorms to start that far west. spc has their
marginal risk for severe weather on wednesday starting right over
our eastern counties. the vort finally pushing the cold air into the
area has more of a west to east trajectory as opposed to north to
south meaning the cold will be more transitory and have less
moisture to allow for a kind of ana-frontal snow period wednesday
night. temperatures do look to fall back into the 20s wednesday
night though and highs on thursday look to fall back towards
climatological averages, in the 40s.

with the cooler air in mind, attention turns to thursday night/
friday morning when interaction between vort maxes attempting
to phase causes deepening of a low pressure system over the
great lakes. temperatures thursday night appear more marginal,
but perhaps they would have to come down a little from what we
have in there, ranging through the 30s. at the very least, some
mix of snow and rain would be possible. additionally, a strong
low level jet moving through early friday may be enough to make
it breezy to gusty. currently have 30 kt gusts in the forecast,
but the timing of the jet will be key to getting higher gusts
because mismatched mixing and jet passage may limit gusts.

the friday system leaves behind a baroclinic boundary that the
weekend (probably sunday) system will be able to ride along and
develop. coupled jets are currently modeled as being able to help
deepening and development of a system that tracks from il into mi,
which would point to a rain system. track and modeling that far out
can still change between now and then, especially with a baroclinic
boundary in play. the placement of that will be important.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 639 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

a shortwave trough is digging across arkansas this evening.
downstream of this, a narrow plume of moisture is advecting
poleward and has resulted in an narrow area of mvfr stratus.
this stratus shield is anticipated to expand during the taf
period as moisture advection continues and an inversion takes
shape. the onset time of reduced ceilings is uncertain. a
period of lifr conditions cannot be ruled out. with a steady sw
wind near 10 kts, dense fog is not anticipated. look for a
brief period of improvement tuesday afternoon before showers and
thunderstorms (especially at ksbn) just beyond the end time of
this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
758 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

.key messages...

- isolated showers possible tuesday, becoming wetter with rising
thunderstorm potential tuesday night into wednesday. the potential
exists for severe storms early wednesday morning.

- rain showers continue wednesday with brief change over to melting
snow showers by wednesday night possible.

- a clipper system may produce wintry precipitation friday.

&&

.aviation...

winds remain slightly elevated this evening with southwest gusts
across lower michigan still above 20 knots within the tighter
gradient flow. vfr skies will continue through the early portion of
the evening. southwest winds will then carry lower level moisture
that will collide with cold front sliding in from the north. this
will bring ceilings into mvfr tonight and eventually to ifr by mid-
morning tomorrow along with a post frontal northeast wind. the boost
in moisture and weak lift should be enough to bring a chance for
scattered light showers/drizzle around mid-morning. the front will
gradually slide just south of the southern metro terminals late
morning/early afternoon. ifr ceilings should hold through the
afternoon north of this boundary. there will remain low chances for
scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm during the afternoon
dependent on instability. greatest thunderstorm threat resides just
beyond this taf period.

for dtw...vfr ceilings this evening transition to ifr early tomorrow
morning. increasing shower chances tomorrow morning ahead of a
frontal passage, with a low chance for a rumble of thunder with this
activity. additional shower and low thunder chances continue through
tuesday afternoon, but with lower confidence before 00z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tomorrow morning and
afternoon.

* low for elevated thunderstorms between 10z and 14z tomorrow
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

discussion...

active stretch of weather this week as we continue to reside near
the main baroclinic zone that has been wavering over the great lakes
of late. strong northern stream of the jet will start off the week
nearly zonal but will start becoming more amplified mid week as the
next trough starts working across the country. this trough will
combined with a cutoff low over texas that will be ejecting several
weak waves up into the region during the weak leading to multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. cooler air in the long
term keeps the door open for mixed precip or periods of snow this
weekend.

starting off this afternoon and tonight we`ll have a backdoor cold
front dropping through the area off lake huron which will force the
once stalled front southward tonight. meanwhile, an initial weak
wave embedded in the southwesterly warm air advection will interact
with the front over southern mi to produce a low end pop late
tonight, mainly after 09z. there is a few hundred j/kg of elevated
cape so a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

warm front stalls once again across southern portions of the state
tuesday with continued warm air advection bringing waves of moisture
into the area which could activate showers on elevated portions of
the front through the day. at a minimum it looks like most of the
cwa will reside north of the front which currently looks to set up
around i94. this will lead to a large thermal gradient across
southern mi with highs in the 40s over the northern thumb and lake
huron shoreline and possible into the low 70s near the ohio border.

a stronger wave will lift northeast overnight tuesday bringing the
next chance of severe weather to southern mi. a 40-50 knot low level
jet will bring a surge of theta e up through the region between 00-
06z bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. additional
ribbons of theta e and vorticity will then follow through the night
before a surface low riding up the stalled front starts tracking
through se lower mi 12z wed. as the low approaches it will attempt
to bulge the warm front northward up through m59 by morning. always
a question this time of year as to how far north the warm front will
make it before stalling due to the stable and cool air in place with
the northeasterly flow off the lakes. for those locations along and
south of the warm front severe weather will be possible. low level
jet will be strong leading to good shear and favorable hodographs.
cape will advect into the region with 500-1000 j/kg of surface based
cape and possibly a bit higher in the vicinity of the low itself
early wednesday morning. risks overnight into wed morning include
damaging winds and large hail along with a tornado threat especially
near and along the warm front. spc continues to have most of se mi
in a marginal risk area with a slight risk nosing across sw mi into
the area. upper level northern stream trough will then sweep through
wednesday afternoon pushing the cold front through mi and providing
another opportunity for showers. there is also a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall as qpf tuesday night through wednesday range from
0.75-2 inches.

should be noted that several models and local probabilistic guidance
advertise a chance for freezing rain tuesday evening into the
overnight across mid mi and the thumb as the precip begins with
temps just below freezing. latest nbm solution keeps any mention
farther north out of our cwa. thinking has been, and continues to
be, that the dewpoints won`t be cold enough at the surface to offer
enough cooling to offset the warmth of the rain
due degree of warm air just above the inversion.

models are faster as the trough/cold front clearing out the moisture
with lower probabilities of a deformation band bringing a rain/snow
mix or all snow to the region late wednesday on the backside of the
low. the next compact northern stream shortwave will then target the
area on friday. we`ll be on the colder side of the main baroclinic
zone during this system so expecting mixed phase precip.

marine...

a surface low over south-central ontario has crossed into quebec
this afternoon, preceding the expansion of an elongated trough axis
into the southern great lakes late overnight. gusts drop-off quickly
after sunset with split-flow developing over the central waterways
into tuesday. winds over lake huron veer northeasterly with time
tonight while southerly flow persists to the south. the pressure
gradient sharpens again on tuesday across the huron basin, ahead of
a more active stretch of weather tuesday night into wednesday. non-
thunderstorm wind gusts may approach 30 knots for huron late tuesday
night into wednesday as low pressure, 29.50 inches, lifts across
lower michigan. expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
including some strong to severe storms. all severe hazards will be
possible. the system`s frontal passage eventually leads to cold
advection, a transition to melting snowfall, and steep low-level
lapse rates leading to more efficient mixing. low-end gale potential
exists wednesday night.

hydrology...

widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop tuesday night into
wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward across lower
michigan. expected rainfall totals range from 0.75-1.75 inches by
wednesday evening, followed by a changeover to melting snow from
north to south. ensemble data suggests rises on area rivers will be
expected with a chance for minor flood stage for river systems.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
hydrology....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.