Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 301125
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
725 am edt thu oct 30 2025

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.synopsis...
a trough should linger over our region today through saturday
night. simultaneously, the primary low embedded in this trough
should wobble northeastward from the central appalachians to the
canadian maritimes by early saturday morning and then wobble
farther northeastward through saturday night. on sunday, a ridge
should build over our region from the southern great plains and
mid mississippi valley.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
up in the mid/upper-levels, an extensive trough lingers over the
eastern united states and vicinity through tonight. within this
trough, the 500 mb low should wobble generally ne`ward from near
the eastern ky/eastern tn border area to eastern ny by daybreak
friday as a potent jet streak just east of the 500 mb low
translates generally ne`ward from the southeast u.s. to new
england. focused divergence aloft and mslp falls associated with
the left-front quadrant of the jet streak should allow the
primary surface low to deepen and wobble ne`ward from the
central appalachians to near the border of qc and vt by daybreak
friday. accordingly, the surface trough in which the surface
low is embedded will linger over our region. this low track at
the surface and aloft will keep northern oh and nw pa in the
cold sector and allow caa at/near the surface to persist.
daytime highs should reach the upper 40`s to lower 50`s today.
tonight`s lows should reach the mid 30`s to mid 40`s.

as the low pressure system`s warm conveyor belt, including trowal,
continues to undergo isentropic ascent aloft while tapping into
abundant moisture from the gulf and southern gulf stream, widespread
rain will impact our region today. rain will be steady to heavy at
times due to the following: the release of weak potential instability
via frontogenetical convergence and moist ascent in the trowal;
lake-enhancement of rain via the seeder-feeder process and weak
to moderate lake-induced cape amidst a sufficiently-cold and
moist low/mid-level atmospheric column over ~14c lake erie.
lake-enhanced rain (lenr) will stream generally wsw`ward from
lake erie early this morning before beginning to stream
generally sw`ward around daybreak as mean low-level flow backs
from ene`erly to ne`erly. as mean low-level flow continues to
back to n`erly, lenr should begin to stream generally s`ward
from lake erie by this late afternoon and early evening. the
warm conveyor belt, including trowal, and associated widespread
rain will then exit our region generally from wsw to ene this
evening through tonight given the projected track of the low at
the surface and aloft. accordingly, lenr should transition to
pure lake-effect rain (ler), steady to heavy at times, as mid-level
moisture decreases and the seeder-feeder process ceases, yet
the low-level atmospheric column remains sufficiently-cold and
moist over and downwind of lake erie and lake-induced cape
remains weak to moderate. the lenr and then ler should stream
generally s`ward and then se`ward from lake erie as mean low-
level flow backs from n`erly to nw`erly. most of our cwa is
expected to receive an additional 0.75" to 2.00" of rainfall
through tonight. however, less rainfall is expected in our i-75
corridor counties due to a shorter cumulative duration of
precip. here, additional rainfall should range from 0.10" to
0.75" with a tight west-to-east gradient.

note: caa across ~14c lake erie will maintain an unstable
marine boundary layer through tonight. the resulting lake-induced
convective mixing of the boundary layer over and immediately
downwind of the lake will tap into stronger flow aloft. as a
result, onshore surface winds, backing from ne`erly to nw`erly,
should gust up to 35 to 45 mph along and near the lakeshore,
especially from ottawa county to erie county, pa, at times,
especially from about daybreak this morning through tonight.
refrained from issuing a wind advisory since various ensemble
forecast systems indicate low probabilities (much less than 50%)
for advisory criteria wind gusts (46 to 57 mph).

&&

.short term /friday through sunday night/...
on friday, cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded
disturbances affect our region as the 500 mb low wobbles ne`ward
from eastern ny toward northern me and surface troughing lingers
over our region. isolated to scattered rain showers are possible
as moist isentropic ascent precedes the axes of the shortwave
disturbances and low-level convergence/moist ascent along attendant
surface trough axes release weak potential instability in the lowest
1 km agl. during friday night, the surface trough weakens
over/near lake erie and a surface ridge attempts to build from
the tn valley and vicinity as the 500 mb low wobbles ne`ward
across northern me and vicinity to the canadian maritimes and a
shortwave ridge aloft traverses our region from west to east.
primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. however, periods of ler, steady to
perhaps heavy at times, are expected on friday through friday
night, in/near the snow belt of ne oh/nw pa, amidst wnw`erly to
nw`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently cold/moist air
over/downwind of lake erie and weak to moderate lake-induced
cape over the lake. afternoon highs are expected to reach the
upper 40`s to lower 50`s on friday and overnight lows should
reach mainly the mid 30`s to mid 40`s around daybreak saturday
as net low-level caa persists. note w`erly to nw`erly onshore
surface winds should gust up to 35 to 45 mph immediately
downwind of lake erie from lorain county to erie county, pa at
times friday into friday night for similar reasons noted in the
near-term discussion. based on latest trends in model guidance,
including ensemble forecast systems, there is limited potential
for advisory-criteria gusts.

on saturday through saturday night, the ridge at the surface and
aloft should exit e`ward as a shortwave trough axis approaches
and eventually begins to enter our region from the west, allowing
surface troughing to become reestablished easily across northern
oh and nw pa. ler, steady to heavy at times, is expected
over/downwind of lake erie, in/near the primary snow belt of ne
oh/nw pa, as lake-induced cape remains weak to moderate and the
mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air backs from
w`erly toward wsw`erly. outside of ler, periodic and isolated
rain showers are possible along and ahead of the shortwave
trough axis and attendant surface trough axis for the same
reasons mentioned in the first paragraph of this section.
afternoon highs should reach the upper 40`s to mid 50`s on
saturday. overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30`s to mid
40`s around daybreak sunday.

the above-mentioned trough axis at the surface and aloft will
continue to shift e`ward across our region on sunday and be
followed by a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft building and
then cresting e`ward across our cwa sunday night. isolated and
periodic rain showers remain possible along and ahead of the
trough axis at the surface and aloft for the same reasons
mentioned in the first paragraph of the short- term section,
although the potential for these showers is quite low at this
time. lingering ler should stream generally e`ward or ne`ward
from lake erie as the mean low-level flow of sufficiently-
cold/moist air should vary between w`erly and sw`erly and lake-
induced cape should be at least weak. afternoon highs should
reach mainly the lower to mid 50`s on sunday. overnight lows
should reach mainly the mid 30`s to lower 40`s around daybreak
monday as a chilly air mass persists over the eastern great
lakes and upper oh valley.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave
disturbances, and net surface troughing should impact northern
oh and nw pa on monday through tuesday. periodic and isolated
rain showers may accompany the shortwave disturbances and
attendant surface through axes. ler should persist over and
downwind of lake erie as a suffciently-cold/moist mean low-level
flow veers gradually from sw`erly to nw`erly with the e`ward
passage of a primary shortwave trough axis. afternoon highs
should reach mainly the 50`s on monday and tuesday, respectively.
in between, overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30`s to
mid 40`s around daybreak tuesday.

during tuesday night through wednesday, a ridge at the surface
and aloft should build from the west and eventually crest e`ward
across northern oh and nw pa. primarily dry weather is expected
as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. as net low-level
waa and a lowering subsidence inversion accompany the ridge and
cause lake-induced cape to wane considerably, primarily light
and nw`erly mean low-level flow-related ler showers should end
gradually tuesday night through wednesday morning. wednesday
should feature morning lows mainly in the mid 30`s to lower 40`s
around daybreak and afternoon highs in the lower 50`s to lower
60`s.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
the main message for aviation weather with this morning`s 12z
taf update will ifr to lower end mvfr conditions today. widespread
light to moderate rain will continue to move across the area
this morning into the afternoon. ceilings will lower between 500
to 900 feet for all taf sites later this morning with the
exception of maybe tol. we have tol lowering to low end mvfr
ceilings. visibilities from the light to moderate rain and mist
will drop between 2 and 5 sm for most taf sites later this
morning into the afternoon. by tonight and towards the end of
the taf period, conditions will improve to vfr for tol, fdy,
and mfd. for yng, cle, and cak, low end mvfr will return later
this evening. eri will likely stay with ifr through much of
tonight.

winds will increase from the north and northeast this morning
12 to 17 knots with gusts around 25 knots. winds will become
northwesterly 12 to 17 knots this afternoon into tonight with
gusts around 25 knots.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania friday through the weekend with lake
effect clouds and rain showers.

&&

.marine...
conditions over the lake will become rough today with easterly to
northeasterly gales of 35 to 40 knots. a strong low pressure system
will pass by to the east of lake erie later in the day. winds will
become more northerly then northwesterly by this evening. waves in
the open water will be 8 to 13 feet today. waves in the nearshore
water will be 4 to 8 feet. at this time, we do not have gales for
the lake erie islands but that will be monitored for possible
expansion of the gale warning. later tonight, will be decrease below
gales to 25 to 34 knots from the northwest and continue into friday.
waves will range 5 to 10 feet later tonight into friday as well.
winds and waves will slowly decrease friday night into saturday. a
small craft advisory will likely be needed after the gale warning
ends late thursday evening. a weak high pressure system will move
over the lake saturday night with lighter winds and waves. a
southwesterly flow will return over the lake on sunday 5 to 15 knots
and those sw winds will increase 20 to 30 knots by monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt friday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for
lez144>149.
gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for lez144>149-
164>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
643 am edt thu oct 30 2025

.key messages...

- light rain will exit northwest ohio by late this afternoon.

- scattered lake effect rain showers are possible friday and
saturday, especially north of us-24.

- temperatures remain near seasonal normals through next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 245 am edt thu oct 30 2025

upper low and associated surface reflection currently lifting ne
through the appalachians. light rain will continue in our e/se
counties through the day with another 0.25 inches possible (mainly
around lima). rain should exit the area entirely by around 21z.
stiff northerly breeze in the wake of this low will keep highs in
the low/mid 50s with mostly cloudy skies for at least our eastern
half most of the day. a weak shortwave will then shear across the
area overnight. the primary impact will be an increase in cloud
cover and a minor lake response. incoming airmass is not
particularly cold but the lake remains warm and there appears to be
just enough lake-induced instability amid confluent, cyclonic flow
to touch off some sct lake effect rain showers late tonight into
early friday. amounts will be light and coverage limited given
marginal theta-e lapse rates and shallow convective depths. lake
effect precip should wane by the evening hours as flow (temporarily)
backs more westerly but can`t entirely rule out a few stray showers
along/north of the toll road for evening halloween activities.

next upper low still slated to pinwheel through the region over the
weekend. once again, best cva forcing and moisture will remain to
our south with local precip chances tied mainly to a nebulous lake
response. several models suggesting conditions favorable for meso-
low development over lake mi on sat but that is still a ways out and
unknown if it will impact our cwa anyway. limited nbm pop`s away
from the lake but kept generally close near there. highs remain
stuck near 50f on sat given abundant clouds and weak caa. precip
chances wind down for sun as a trough swings through the northern
lakes and strong sw flow develops for a short time. the associated
cold frontal passage should be dry given best forcing is confined
well to our north but there are some timing difference and did keep
some nbm slight chance pop`s for our northern zones sun night/early
mon. otherwise the weather through much of next week appears quiet.
temps see-saw a bit but remain near seasonal norms.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 634 am edt thu oct 30 2025

a deep surface low was drifting north across ky and was moving
toward oh. this low was a very extensive system with a low and
mid level moisture fetch on the north and northeast sides of the
low from the east coast all of the way into northeast indiana.
the updated gfs forecast soundings continue to keep very deep
moisture over far northeast indiana from the low levels through
the mid levels. ifr conditions were encroaching on fwa at van
wert. went with tempo mvfr ceilings at fwa for the first 4 hours
of the taf. otherwise north to northeast flow will prevail with
winds generally 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 20 and 25
knots.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
938 am edt thu oct 30 2025

.key messages...

- rain showers clip far eastern areas today and this evening, mainly
along a line from monroe to detroit to port huron.

- breezy and cool for friday, with slightly below normal
temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.update...

the water vapor loop shows a decent moisture plume feeding the mid
level deformation axis over the eastern great lakes. the elevated
portion of the mid level frontal ascent has produced widespread rain
generally across southern wayne and monroe counties. the initial
surge of moisture up the frontal slope even reached portions of
oakland county, with ptk reporting light rain. per the 12z dtx
sounding, there was more mid level moisture present then suggest by
most model soundings. however, the 12z apx sounding and recent acars
sounding out of mbs show a very substantial layer of mid level dry
air to the northwest. ongoing contraction of the mid level frontal
boundary appears to be advecting some of this dry air farther into
the back edge of the deformation region. latest radar data is showing
the effects of this dry air with a notable diminishing of returns
across st clair and macomb and northern wayne counties. the latest
hrrr does at least drive the better mid level fgen westward enough
to support at least a chance of light rain moving back into downtown
detroit, mount clemens and port huron this afternoon. a forecast
update will be issued to make some minor adjustments to rain chances
today based on the aforementioned trends.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 714 am edt thu oct 30 2025

aviation...

vfr conditions likely to prevail through this evening and tonight
under a northeasterly wind to 10 knots or less. diurnal cu off lake
huron has dissipated with an area of lake influenced mid clouds
holding over the southern metro terminals. the expanse of the high
cloud shield associated with the low pressure over ky/tn is also
approaching from the south, which will gradually lift over southeast
michigan tonight and tomorrow. rain showers and lower ceilings will
eventually arrive under these clouds as the low moves into oh/pa.
greatest confidence in rain shower occurrence will reside south of
ptk and mainly during the afternoon. light showers will be possible
earlier in the day, but enough dry air lowers potential and will
cover this with a prob30 across the southern metro terminals during
the mid morning to early afternoon hours. showers look unlikely for
ptk, fnt, and mbs. these terminals should mainly see lower vfr
bkn/ovc ceilings. winds out of the nne pick up in the afternoon with
gusts to 20-25 knots.

for dtw/d21 convection...no thunderstorm activity expected today or
tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening, then medium
thursday morning.

prev discussion...
issued at 240 am edt thu oct 30 2025

discussion...

a large upper level low is currently centered near the
tennessee/kentucky border this morning. the associated 500 mb height
fall center is projected to track just east of pittsburgh pa this
afternoon. consequently, we anticipate only a glancing blow from the
main rain shield. based on upstream radar/surface obs, the best
chance for light rain remains along a monroe-detroit-port huron
corridor, with precipitation probabilities dropping off quickly to
the west. 850-700 mb moisture advection is expected to peak out
around 12z thursday, with mixing ratios in the 4-4.25 g/kg range
within that layer. as the day wears on, low level cooling and
increasing north-northeast winds may lead to lake huron enhancement,
with sbcapes around 50 j/kg. however, this enhancement is not
anticipated until 21-00z. a dry period is likely during the late
morning/early afternoon after the initial light shower activity moves
through. the expected flare-up late today should continue into the
evening hours before ending as winds veer to a more northwest/offshore
direction. total qpf along a port huron-city of detroit-monroe line
has a shot to reach or slightly exceed a quarter of an inch.

breezy and chilly conditions will become the dominant weather story
to close out the work week and into the weekend. gusty northwest
winds, potentially reaching 30 mph per local probabilist guidance,
will advect significantly colder air into the great lakes region.
850 mb temperature are forecast to lower into the -3 to -6 c range by
saturday. a strong upper level wave/low dropping southeast from
central canada on thursday will reach the western great lakes/midwest
by friday evening and slowly track southeast through the region on
saturday. the 00z euro model suggests a surface reflection will
develop over southern lower michigan, combined with and favorable
upper level divergence, presents a chance of rain developing south of
m-59 by saturday afternoon.

shortwave ridging moving in for sunday, allowing for a moderating
airmass and a brief period of dry weather. this benign pattern will
precede the next cold front, which is expected to swing through on
monday, bringing a renewed chance of showers.

marine...

northeast flow persists while a low slowly moves into the ohio river
valley early this morning. the low will gradually move toward new
england throughout the day, which will gradually shift winds more
towards the north-northeast while tightening the gradient and
increasing wind speeds. this increasing onshore flow will allow
waves to build across the southern lake huron basin and bring small
craft advisory conditions to saginaw bay, nearshores of the thumb,
and lake st clair this morning in addition to the ongoing hazardous
small craft conditions across west lake erie. trajectory of the low
will turn winds north to northwest by early friday as hazardous
small craft conditions persist.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt friday for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 am edt friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt friday for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....kgk
discussion...sf
marine.......aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.