Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
800 am edt fri jun 26 2026

.what has changed...
our total rainfall forecast for later today into saturday has
trended lower in our region based on the latest expected
evolution of the weather pattern at the surface and aloft. we
now expect about 0.25" or less north of roughly u.s. route 30
and approximately 0.25" to 0.60" elsewhere.

&&

.key messages...
1.) periodic rain showers are expected and isolated
thunderstorms are possible later today into saturday.

2.) warmer and more humid weather is expected this sunday
through thursday. periodic showers and thunderstorms are
possible during most of the same time period.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our
region through saturday. by saturday night, a high pressure
ridge aloft should begin to build from the upper midwest and
vicinity. at the surface, a cold front appeared to extend
sw`ward across central lake erie, just west of cleveland, just
west of mansfield, and just east of marion as of 2 am edt this
morning. this front will continue moving se`ward, exit the rest
of our cwa by daybreak this morning, and should settle in
vicinity of the middle and upper oh valley by midday today
through saturday night. behind the front, a high pressure ridge
builds slowly from the western great lakes and vicinity through
saturday night. weak surface lows accompanying the shortwave
disturbances aloft are expected to move along the front this
afternoon through sunset saturday night. odds favor dry weather
in our cwa this morning courtesy of boundary layer stabilization
via nocturnal cooling ahead of the cold front and stabilizing
subsidence accompanying the aforementioned surface ridge. cloud
breaks, lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall, and
weak or calm surface winds should permit patchy radiation mist
or fog development through daybreak this morning. by mid-morning,
any mist or fog is expected to dissipate via diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer.

during this afternoon through tonight, periods of rain, steady
to heavy at times, should overspread our region from the south
and west courtesy of moist isentropic ascent associated with the
warm conveyor belt of a primary low-level low along the
aforementioned front. isolated thunderstorms are possible,
especially this afternoon and evening, since the isentropic
ascent may release weak, yet sufficient and primarily elevated
cape. during the daylight hours of saturday, lingering and
periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to end
generally from wnw to ese as the warm conveyor belt exits
generally e`ward and the ridge at the surface and aloft
continues to build from the west. widespread dry weather is
then expected through saturday night amidst stabilizing
subsidence accompanying the ridge. the greatest rainfall in our
cwa is expected roughly along and south of u.s. route 30. this
is where periods of rain should be more-persistent since that
portion of our cwa will be located closer to the surface front,
frontal surface lows, and associated stronger synoptic-scale
forcing for ascent.

weak low-level caa behind the aforementioned cold front and
abundant cloud cover should contribute to below-normal highs in
the 70`s late this afternoon. greater sunshine and daytime
heating should permit slightly warmer highs in the 70`s to 80f
late saturday afternoon. overnight lows should reach mainly the
upper 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak saturday and sunday,
respectively.

key message 2...
a warming trend and increase in humidity are expected this
sunday through thursday as the mid/upper-level ridge axis shifts
from near the ms valley to near the eastern great lakes and the
atlantic coast of the fl peninsula, which will cause our region
to become located within a synoptic-scale low-level warm/moist
air advection regime from the gulf as we become located along
the western flank of the surface portion of the ridge. daytime
highs should moderate from the 80`s to lower 90`s on monday to
mainly the upper 80`s to mid 90`s on thursday. daily maximum heat
indices may reach the 100f to 105f range in portions of our cwa on
tuesday through thursday. stay tuned to forecast updates and
possible hot weather alerts. overnight lows should moderate from
mainly the upper 50`s to upper 60`s around daybreak on monday to the
70`s around daybreak on thursday.

current odds favor dry weather through tuesday as relatively-
strong and stabilizing subsidence associated with the ridge
continues to impact our region. occasional showers and
thunderstorms are possible this tuesday night through thursday
as subtle shortwave disturbances ripple generally eastward
through the ridge aloft, are accompanied by surface trough axes,
and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface trough
axes release at least weak to moderate instability. some storms
may be strong to severe as the aforementioned shortwave
disturbances interact with the ridge aloft and tighten the
isobaric height gradient aloft, which in turn should yield at
least moderate deep-layer bulk shear.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
some mist/fog has developed across the area this morning and
should be quick to mix out with daytime heating. meanwhile, some
mvfr ceilings is pushing southeast across lake erie and will
impact keri for the first half of the morning. a trough will
start to enter the ohio and tennessee river valleys tonight and
some mid-level clouds will enter this afternoon ahead of this
system. rain will begin moving in this evening and into the
overnight bringing a gradual decline into mvfr with light rain
showers. this rain should persist through the overnight and
reach most of the terminals. winds will be light to start and
generally westerly. winds will start to shift to the east later
today and be the main wind direction for the end of the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr continuing with rain showers on saturday.
non-vfr possible in fog/mist sunday morning.

&&

.marine...
with a low pressure system and associated cold front departing to
the east, high pressure will briefly build from the north today.
this will allow for light and variable winds over the lake for the
first half of the day before shifting around to the east. a weak low
pressure system over the central united states will enter the ohio
and tennessee valleys tonight into saturday. east to northeast winds
will pick up into the 10 to 15 kt range as this feature moves to the
south. high pressure will return for saturday night into sunday and
sustain the east to northeast flow on the lake. high pressure will
move east on monday and allow for winds to shift to the southeast. a
low pressure system over the northern united states will lift a warm
front over the lake on monday night into tuesday and south to
southwest flow will be favored. overall, marine headlines are not
expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
624 am edt fri jun 26 2026

.key messages...

- rain arrives later this morning from southwest to northeast,
tapering off after sunset. little to no rain expected toward
the southern michigan state line.

- hot and humid next week with highs in the 90s and heat
indicies near 100 as early as monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 208 am edt fri jun 26 2026

a warm front creeps north today bringing an increasing chance of
showers, especially along and south of us 30. northward progress
beyond that is limited by preceding 1019mb high pressure over the
upper peninsula. rainfall totals have decreased notably with the
southern track shift an a lack of local upper-level support. most
locations south of us 30 will see about 0.25" to 0.50", with an
opportunity for a few folks south of highway 24 to see 1". rain
arrives late this morning and tapers off from west to east after
sunset.

beyond today`s rain, the primary item of interest is the
incoming heat. today`s warm front drifts east, sandwiched
between eastern great lakes high pressure and a subtropical
southeast us ridge. to the west, a deep trough over the great
basin buckles the jetstream significantly resulting in a 594dm
ridge over the southern mississippi valley. this ridge becomes
centered overhead tuesday and wednesday, perhaps representing
our hottest days of this "heat wave". available guidance
generally keeps this ridge around through the 4th of july
weekend. daily highs in the 90s along with heat indicies in the
triple-digits are nearly a given. amid the hot and humid
environment, unstable conditions invite the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms which will need to be addressed on a
daily basis. when the ridge does break down, we`ll have to
monitor for any ridge-running mcs`.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 623 am edt fri jun 26 2026

showers continue to gradually lift north through illinois and
indiana associated with a warm front in the vicinity. existing
tafs remain on track this morning. ksbn still looks to dodge a
majority of the rain today, through the prob30 remains for
scattered showers just ahead of the line. antecedent dry air may
be a limiting factor at ksbn.

at kfwa, high confidence in showers later this morning. this
activity may persist well into the overnight hours along with
decreasing ceilings. wind near 10 knots should limit the overall
br or fg concerns overnight. less confidence on any flight
restrictions at ksbn where the subsidence inversion appears
weaker.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
650 am edt fri jun 26 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry today with low shower chances tonight near the ohio
border.

- temperatures return to near normal this weekend with dry weather.

- very hot and humid conditions are likely next week as heat indices
could exceed 100f, especially tues into the late week period.
potential exists for thunderstorms during this time as well.

&&

.aviation...

moisture plume has started making its way south this morning, with
cigs/vsbys ranging from lifr to low vfr at issuance. already
starting to see the cloud deck scatter and lift, with this trend
expected to continue through the morning. pockets of low stratus
(mvfr or lower) however may linger over the next few hours but with
decreasing coverage over time as daytime heating ramps up. diurnal
cu field and upstream convective cloud debris this afternoon create
more chaotic cloud cover, but all look to stay within vfr
thresholds. light winds throughout the day veer from north to east-
southeast by this afternoon and stay there through the rest of the
taf period. northern portions of the airspace have the best shot to
clear out this evening, while the dtw corridor will be on the
northern fringe of moisture transport associated with ohio valley
low pressure. models have wavered in how far north the moisture axis
gets, although still look to stay comfortably within vfr overnight
even if the moisture axis lifts more aggressively north. in that
case, a stray shower cannot be ruled out. one forecast item to watch
will be localized pockets of radiation fog and/or stratus that can
develop downwind of the lakes/saginaw bay as flow becomes east,
especially heading into saturday morning.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast through saturday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 252 am edt fri jun 26 2026

discussion...

shearing pv anomaly continues to peel away from the great lakes this
morning, leaving lower michigan within a cyclonic surface flow
pattern. while synoptic moisture largely exited with the wave, flow
off of lake huron has established a mix of low stratus/fog across
northern and central lower michigan that will slowly spread south
through the early morning hours. cloud trends quickly improve with
daybreak as late june sun angle efficiently mixes boundary layer
moisture with an otherwise dry/stable column aloft. seasonably cool
conditions expected again today with highs in the mid-70s (even
cooler in cloudy spots). cool conditions will be reinforced as cloud
cover redevelops this afternoon from both diurnal cu development and
remnant convective cirrus from whatever perturbations survive this
far east.

remnant baroclinic zone from yesterday`s low is active with
convection this morning, stretching from new england to the southern
plains where another low has developed. plenty of moisture pooling
around this low will advect into the ohio valley tonight, but stalls
just shy of the state line up against the 1020 mb surface high. this
allows just a glancing period of moist isentropic ascent along
deformation axis overnight near the ohio border that could squeeze
out a few showers. that said, do expect mostly virga as a
combination of shallow moisture, weak ascent, and neutral to weakly
stable lapse rates will struggle to produce rates capable of
overcoming the existing dry low levels. column stays much drier
further north, affording quality radiative cooling conditions
especially toward the saginaw valley/thumb regions. this
reintroduces fog potential saturday morning, especially given e-ne
flow off the of saginaw bay/lake huron

generally neutral thermal advection pattern expected this weekend,
with a gradual warming trend back toward normal highs (low 80s) by
sunday. se michigan remains on the north side of the deformation
axis, maintaining a feed of dry synoptic air from ontario to limit
precipitation chances.

major pattern transition then commences late sunday-monday as a deep
upper low moves into the pacific northwest and ridging amplification
intensifies over eastern conus. by monday afternoon, projections are
for 500mb heights to reach ~594 dam over the ohio valley. this sets
the stage for a hot and humid airmass across se michigan with
potential for multiple consecutive days of mid-upper 90s high
temperatures and even higher heat indices from tuesday through the
rest of the work week. a handful of eps/cmce members push highs into
the low 100s, although that is difficult to do in se michigan and
will require limited cloud cover/thunderstorm activity which have
low predictability this far out. nonetheless, heat headline criteria
looks very much in reach for next week across southern lower
michigan.

marine...

high pressure building into the western lakes and will encompass
most of the region by this morning. the high holds over most of the
area through the weekend but there is a low looking to clip the
southern great lakes friday afternoon and evening. the rain shield
may impact lakes erie and st clair. in the wake of that low, the
high will expand back across the great lakes tonight, bring warmer
and calmer weather along with it for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...mv
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.