Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 251832
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
232 pm edt mon may 25 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track with no major changes made.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure builds into the region and dry weather and warming
temperatures are expected through the majority of the week with a
low chance of showers on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will persist across the great lakes region through
tuesday night. can`t rule out some additional patchy fog developing
along the lake erie lakeshore overnight tonight, though not
expecting the fog to be as dense or widespread as it was earlier
this morning.

as we remain in the control of the high, expect for temperatures to
warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs each afternoon with
overnight lows settling in the upper 50s to lower 60s. dry weather
is expected tonight through tuesday evening before an upper trough
lifts across the ohio valley. expect for shower and thunderstorm
chances to increase overnight tuesday into wednesday. the bulk of
the precipitation chances will remain across the southern half of
the forecast area, mainly along and south of us-30.

a surface cold front will push south across the forecast area
wednesday night into thursday with high pressure returning on
thursday. slightly cooler, but remaining dry, behind the cold front
with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
very stubborn fog is finally burning off, and this will continue
through mid afternoon allowing for mostly sunny and vfr
conditions. the fog will likely hold on the longest at keri. vfr
is then expected through early tonight, but confidence is
increasing that all terminals will once again experience dense
fog late tonight into tuesday morning. timing of the most
impactful fog could shift forward or backward an hour or two,
but generally expect the worst conditions in the 08-12z
timeframe when ifr and lifr will dominate before gradually
improving through the morning.

ne winds of 5-10 knots this afternoon will become light and
variable late this evening through tonight before turning
generally e to ne again tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers in central ohio on
wednesday.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions are expected on lake erie through the start of
the weekend as pressure gradients remain weak and a large dome
of high pressure overall controls the great lakes. light and
variable winds are expected at night, turning generally n to ne
at 5-10 knots during the days tuesday and wednesday. stronger n
to ne winds of 5-15 knots are then expected wednesday night and
thursday before turning light and variable friday then back to n
to ne saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 260007
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
807 pm edt mon may 25 2026

.key messages...

- warm with highs generally in the low 80s through wednesday,
then in the mid to upper 70s thursday through this weekend.

- outside of a low chance for showers and isolated storms on
wednesday (10-40%, mainly south of us 30), dry conditions are
favored through this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 207 pm edt mon may 25 2026

quiet, pleasant wx will persist into tonight and tuesday as a narrow
low level ridge axis holds over the region. light/variable winds and
only some passing high clouds may support fog development again
toward daybreak tomorrow, though mixout of drier air and resulting
lower crossover values should limit this to less impactful shallow
ground fog.

on wednesday, a cut-off low will lift slowly into the oh valley with
low chances (20-40%) for showers and isolated storms on the northern
fringe of its deeper moisture into areas mainly south of the us 30
corridor. meanwhile, an upper level shortwave dropping southeast
through ontario and the eastern great lakes will drive a backdoor
cold front to near the mi border by late wednesday
afternoon/evening. this feature may generate a few late day/evening
showers here given the convergence and weak boundary layer
destabilization. overall, the bulk of the area likely remains rain-
free with afternoon temperatures once again making a run at the low
80s.

an expansive low level anticyclone over the great lakes region will
provide a stretch of fair wx, low humidity and seasonable
temperatures thursday through this weekend. this will occur in
response to a developing pseudo-omega blocking pattern, with the
local area nestled between northeast conus upper troughing, and
anomalous ridging over the upper midwest and south-central
canada.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 752 pm edt mon may 25 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals outside of
brief potential ifr/lifr conditions at kfwa between 9-12z.

expect light easterly to south-southeasterly flow through the
period, light and variable late tonight. high clouds continue
to stream in from the south-southwest, likely remaining bkn-sct
through the period.

ifr/lifr potential with br/fg development later tonight/early
tue am at kfwa, with more favorable crossover temps than ksbn
and lingering low level moisture.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 260015
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
815 pm edt mon may 25 2026

.key messages...

- summer-like temperatures expected through wednesday. these
conditions will bring a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late
wednesday.

- a return to more seasonable temperatures thursday through next
weekend. no rain currently expected during this time.

&&

.aviation...

warmer surface temperatures across the saginaw valley and midlevel
cooling offered by a weak shortwave has resulted in elevated
thunderstorm activity out over saginaw bay early this evening. no
convective activity is anticipated at any of the taf sites this
evening. center of elongated surface high pressure will remain in
place over the far southern forecast area tonight. anticyclonic
release of marine airmass off of lake erie could provide for some
moisture and fog tonight at the detroit terminals. low confidence
does exist on occurrence because the urban heat island may be just
warm enough to limit development. for kfnt and kmbs there is expected
to be enough of a southwest gradient wind to limit a surface
inversion and br/fg. large scale blocking over bermuda is expected to
stall out a very weak upper level low over the mid mississippi river
valley. high cloud is anticipated tuesday over the far southern
forecast area with modest southwest winds.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

* low for visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings at less than 300 ft late
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 pm edt mon may 25 2026

discussion...

western extension of high pressure anchored over the eastern great
lakes will maintain influence over the next 48 hours. modest south
to southwest low level flow held on the backside of the surface high
lending to a moderating thermal profile to finish the holiday
weekend, as latest surface obs show temps pushing toward the upper
70s to lower 80s /warmest across the saginaw valley/. higher degree
of stability maintained across much of the area given the capped
profile. a weak shortwave evident on water vapor ejecting across
northern lake mi will pass by to the north this evening. there
remains some model support for a lower coverage of convection to
emerge across mainly northeast lower mi as this wave engages a
narrow axis of meaningful instability. the probability for any
activity to drift into the outer saginaw bay/tip of the thumb region
remains at less than 10 percent. much lower potential for fog
development tonight with notable drying ongoing under full
insolation and likelihood for a light southwest gradient to persist
tonight for many locales. with that, a more localized dip in
visibility plausible generally between i-94 and the ohio border
given closer proximity to high pressure influence with flow off
lake erie. an introductory patchy fog mention appropriate for this
area. lows tonight broadly distributed in the 50s.

dry and seasonably warm conditions entrenched tuesday, as an
improving mean thickness field within the background of lingering
low-mid level ridging affords an additional upward trend in daylight
temperature. highs in the 80s, warmest again across the saginaw
valley. governing upper ridge will retrograde with time to the west
as modest height falls commence along the front flank. this will
allow an initially shallow backdoor cold front to sag into the
region tuesday night and wednesday. little disruption to the diurnal
heating process evident for wednesday again lends to highs in the
80s except along the immediate lake huron shoreline. greatest
inbound height falls currently noted for wednesday evening and
overnight tied to the passage of a lower amplitude wave. depending
on the southward pace of associated forced ascent/better mid level
lapse rates relative to the peak heating cycle, this may offer some
convective potential during this time. outgoing forecast
appropriately maintains modest chances at this stage.

a high amplitude pattern featuring a pseudo-rex block configuration
will dictate conditions throughout much of the conus late this week
and through next weekend. southeast michigan will hold position just
downstream of the higher magnitude ridge axis, leaving a resident
airmass characterized as generally seasonable within deeper,
prevailing northerly flow. this pattern will maintain manageable
humidity level with dewpoints generally in the 40s, while afternoon
temperature peaks mainly in the 70s during this time. forecast
continues to highlight a stretch of dry weather as high pressure
anchors to the north.

marine...

high pressure built into the area overnight and remains in place
today. flow has become southwesterly across the central great lakes
as a result. southwest winds may increase across the saginaw bay
area today, with speeds increasing to around 20 knots. by wednesday,
high pressure becomes quite elongated, stretching across the ohio
valley and into the northeast. a cold front then drops south across
the area late wednesday, with the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. the mid-week cold front is not expected to be
particularly strong, so currently not anticipating any significant
ramp up of winds behind the front. another area of high pressure
builds into the region behind the front and will lead to varying
winds throughout the end of the week. there may be periods with
enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave activity in
nearshore zones at times.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mr
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.