Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
844
fxus61 kcle 291118
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
718 am edt wed apr 29 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes made to the forecast with this morning update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dreary wednesday in store for the area as widespread rain showers
move northeast across the area. no thunder expected, but localized
heavy rainfall across southeastern counties possible.

2) below average temperatures arrive today and stick around through
the weekend. low confidence lake enhanced rain showers possible and
the potential for frost/freeze returns.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
tonight, a cold front has pushed east of the area, stalling just
west of the appalachians. this boundary is providing a path for a
low developing over the tennessee valley which is expected to track
northeast towards new england today. given the placement of this
low, the entire cwa is expected to remain on the cold side of the
low, ultimately limiting any instability potential today for
thunderstorms to occur. cannot rule out a few rumbles across the
southeastern tier of counties, but confidence is too low to include
in the forecast at this point. however, a potent shortwave pushing
east will enhance synoptic support for widespread rain showers to
occur across the cwa beginning this morning and lingering for much
of today. the axis of highest rainfall totals will be across the
southeastern tier of counties where up to 1" of rainfall is
possible. not expecting any flooding concerns at this point, but
will monitor conditions as the day progresses. these showers should
taper from west to east this evening into the early overnight hours
as the aforementioned low and upper level support drift east.

key message 2...
on thursday and friday, a surface trough will linger over the area,
allowing for a much cooler canadian airmass to begin to usher in
across the area. this will ultimately lead to much cooler, below
average temperatures through friday with highs in the low to mid 50s
and overnight lows dropping into the 30s. as this colder airmass
pushes south over warming lakes, there is a potential for enough
lake induced instability to develop to result in isolated light rain
showers across the area. confidence remains low at this point,
especially in the location of any of these showers. unfortunately,
with this set-up, much of thursday and friday will be at least
partly cloudy, lending to some cold and dreary days. on saturday, a
high pressure system will begin to build southeast across the area
allowing for any shower potential to diminish and some clearing in
sky coverage. temperatures however will remain below normal on
saturday, slightly warming on sunday into the upper 50s to low 60s.
sunday will mark the transition towards gradual warming once again
towards normal. with the overnight lows expected to dip into the low
to mid 30s, will have to continue to monitor for the potential of
frost/freeze, especially on thursday, friday, and saturday nights.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
ceilings lowering as rain overspreads the region from the
southwest. expect conditions to continue to deteriorate in rain
through the afternoon hours with ifr eventually expected in low
ceilings, and to a lesser extent, visibilities in rain. ifr to
linger or return to the terminals as another trough axis moves
into the southern great lakes tonight. western terminals could
recover to vfr briefly this evening before going back to to
mvfr/ifr ceilings tonight, while terminals further east likely
to not get out of the ifr ceilings that materialize from the
showers/rain moving in. winds northeasterly 10-15kts becoming
northwesterly 10kts tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and low ceilings friday
morning.

&&

.marine...
will be in a continued/prolonged offshore flow regime
for lake erie through the weekend. northwesterly winds today 10-
20kts bring wave heights 2-4ft today and tonight, easing to 10-15kts
thursday through early saturday and wave heights 1-3ft. saturday,
winds become westerly 10-15kts and wave heights 1-2ft in the western
and central basins and 1-3ft in the eastern basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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044
fxus63 kiwx 290943
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
543 am edt wed apr 29 2026

.key messages...

- scattered rain showers today, best chances (50-70%) this morning
south of us 24.

- a cooler and generally drier weather pattern will settle in
thursday through early next week.

- frost may impact sensitive vegetation friday night into early
saturday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 214 am edt wed apr 29 2026

an upper level shortwave and flares of elevated frontogenesis tracks
through this morning with cloud cover and chances for showers,
mainly along and south of the us 24 corridor where more pronounced
low level moisture convergence is anticipated. a few diurnal showers
then potentially refire under the upper trough axis this afternoon
along any lingering lake boundaries or subtle inverted troughs.
overall coverage should be limited given poor moisture quality,
though a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out if partial clearing
is realized.

cool, cyclonic, mid to upper level flow then remains locked in
thursday through early next week on the southwest fringe of a
southeast canada centered negative height anomaly. below normal
temps and mainly dry conditions will result, though subtle
flattening to the height field likely supports a warming trend and
better rain chances (30-40%) into next week. coldest of the air in
this regime still looks to be thursday through saturday, with friday
night likely the best opportunity for a solid early may
frost/freeze.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 0543 am edt wed apr 29 2026

a moisture starved upper level wave and subtle elevated fgen
response will bring a few showers and chances for brief vis/cig
reductions to the terminals early this morning. high mvfr to
low vfr cigs likely settle in for most of the day otherwise
with a few diurnally driven showers not of the question during
the pm hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 291100
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
700 am edt wed apr 29 2026

.key messages...

- scattered light rain showers this morning.

- temperatures roughly 10 degrees below average the rest of the
week, bringing potential for frost/freeze conditions each morning
thru sunday.

&&

.aviation...

light rain showers spreading across the area this morning associated
with mid level ascent from low pressure system moving across the
ohio valley. ceiling trends observations have been mostly vfr with
ongoing activity this morning, so will lean the forecast this way
and keep vfr ceilings with morning shower activity. ceilings are in
the low vfr category, so a brief period of mvfr still is possible.
better mvfr signal is closer to the front south of the state. n-ne
light winds today as the low progresses throughout the day. hi-res
models pointing towards scattered coverage of showers for the
afternoon as mid level wave moves overhead, so have introduced a
prob30 across the area. ceiling trends start to lower, but will keep
scattered coverage for the lower ceilings at this time. borderline
mvfr ceilings possible this evening into tonight as winds gradually
back towards the northwest.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this morning. high
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 405 am edt wed apr 29 2026

discussion...

a mid-level trough passing through the midwest merges with a
convectively enhanced shortwave over the ohio valley this morning.
the result will be a deepening sfc low that develops along the
stalled baroclinic zone to our south and tracks into the mid-
atlantic region. the deeper moisture transport with this system will
be shunted to the south and east, but will see pockets of light
showers track through this morning as transient fgen excites the 600-
700mb front overhead. highest confidence in measuring around 0.10"
will be south of metro detroit where the most organized forcing and
deepest moisture is progged to set up.

low-level dry air is shown to spread back in from the north as the
elevated forcing peels away midday, favoring mainly dry conditions
east of us-23 the rest of the afternoon. as pva associated with the
midwest trough tracks in late afternoon and this evening, additional
spotty showers expand in coverage over interior lower mi and persist
into parts of tonight. this wave passing through also produces a
healthy coverage of lower cloud overnight, which with a weak
gradient wind is forecast to prevent wider development of frost.
some patchy frost still possible as 2m temps settle into the mid 30s
outside of urban areas.

the trough stalls over the northern great lakes tonight, evolving
into a closed low that meanders over the region the rest of the
week. cool northwest flow dominates local conditions with temps
falling roughly 10 degrees below average for late april and early
may. mostly benign conditions during this period, but expect a daily
flare-up of showers as the cold pool aloft induces steep lapse rates
within the broad moist cyclonic flow. daily highs within a few
degrees of 50 favor rain showers but wet snowflakes possible at
times as wet bulb zero heights fall below 2kft.

the upcoming cool period is uncommon but not completely unheard of
for early may, with historical data showing temps falling below
freezing during the first week of may roughly once every 3 to 7
years on average. however, with the warm spring so far - ranked in
the top-10 warmest up to this point for most sites in se mi - this
cold comes with potential impacts to sensitive vegetation. friday,
saturday, and sunday morning remain targets for potential
frost/freeze headlines, particularly saturday morning. if the
current forecast for lows in the upper 20s saturday morning
verifies, some low min records will be within reach.

the thermal trough is nudged out early next week which favors a
slight warm-up, but longwave troughing remains the dominant pattern
over the eastern conus well into next week. this offers several
opportunities for widespread precip events, and temps generally near
or below normal. cpc 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and week 3-4 outlooks
maintain a lean toward chilly conditions well into the month of may.

marine...

a more diffuse surface pressure field emerges today as the central
great lakes becomes positioned between several weak surface high
pressure areas to the west. mid-level troughing persists overhead,
lifting a weak surface low through the ohio valley. this lends
potential for periods of light showers, but a lack of instability
precludes thunderstorm concerns. local winds generally hold from the
northwest through the rest of the workweek with some additional
chances for weakly forced light precipitation. stronger high pressure
then attempts to build in from central canada/conus over the
weekend. low predictability exists in the large-scale pattern
evolution this weekend as stalled low pressure over the northeast
retrogrades toward the great lakes. no marine headlines are expected
through saturday given current wind and wave trends.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.