Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
435
fxus61 kcle 081736
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
136 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

.what has changed...
showers and thunderstorms have trended a little more widespread
early this morning. a slight risk for excessive rainfall (level
2 of 4) has been added for monday and monday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours early
this morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front late this afternoon and evening.

2) strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible
monday and monday night, with periods of heavy rain possibly
lingering tuesday.

3) turning gradually drier, cooler, and less humid wednesday into
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the familiar pattern remains this morning
characterized by a broad mid/upper trough over south central canada
and the northern plains into the great lakes and a broad mid/upper
ridge over the desert southwest and southern plains. this is keeping
active wnw mid/upper flow in place across the southern great lakes
and ohio valley overtop a quasi-stationary east-west front.

the next in the train of reinforcing shortwaves is moving into
western ohio early this morning. rap analysis hints at a weak
surface wave tied to this mid/upper shortwave that is traversing the
frontal boundary, and the boundary is retreating northward this
morning in response. weak warm air/theta e advection and 500-1000
joules of mlcape in the presence of a very moist environment is
triggering a large area of convection along the slowly retreating
front this morning. this is being aided by upper diffluence and mid-
level pva, so expect showers and thunderstorms to be widespread
again this morning as they slowly lift east and northeast. given
pwats near 2 inches, skinny cape, and high freezing levels with deep
warm cloud layers, torrential rainfall will accompany the
convection, so will need to monitor for localized flooding this
morning, particularly if heavy rain occurs in spots that saw it
yesterday. much of the lakeshore from erie and lorain counties
through central and southern cuyahoga county measured 1 to 3 inches
of rain since thursday night, so these areas will be vulnerable if
the convection can build farther north this morning.

this morning activity will exit nw pa by about 14z, and expect a
lull with quite a bit of sunshine into this afternoon allowing
temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s ahead of the trailing
cold front. this front is trending a few hours slower since it
parallels the mid/upper flow but should sink across the region this
evening. pooling low-level moisture along the boundary (dew points
70-75 f) beneath a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates around 7
c/km will combine with the surface heating to yield strong
instability this afternoon and evening. rap and nam forecast
soundings suggest near 3000 joules of mlcape will be possible by mid
to late afternoon, and with just enough deep layer effective shear
for loose convective organization (0-6 km shear around 25 knots),
could see a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds late
this afternoon and evening. the main question is convective
coverage. forecast soundings show quite a bit of dry air, and while
this could aid downburst potential (dcape near 1000 joules), it may
be too dry to get a lot of storm coverage. the thinking is that
there will be a broken line of convection that will move ese across
the area in the 21-03z timeframe, with a few widely scattered cells
possible ahead of the line.

key message 2...
weak surface high pressure will briefly build in
tonight and sunday, pushing the front to near the ohio river and
allowing somewhat less humid air to filter in (dew points in the
low/mid 60s), however, the front will retreat back north as a warm
front sunday night in response to a much more potent mid/upper
shortwave dropping into the upper midwest. this will bring the rich
low-level moisture back into the region for sunday night and monday
and possibly fuel an organized severe weather and heavy rainfall
event.

confidence continues to be low in terms of how convection will play
out sunday night through monday night, so this set up has a
high ceiling but also high bust potential. as the potent
shortwave drops into the upper midwest sunday evening, a 30-40
knot low-level jet and northeast periphery of a stout eml
should trigger a severe mcs that will propagate ese into
northern illinois, northern indiana, and lower michigan along
the strong instability gradient. this mcs will be outrunning the
best instability and upper support by the time it reaches
northern ohio overnight sunday night, but instability will be
slowly increasing as the frontal boundary retreats north, so
expect it to affect northern ohio in some fashion sunday night,
with potential for gusty winds and heavy downpours. best chance
for this will be in nw ohio. the bigger impact from this mcs
will be how it affects convective redevelopment monday. the
shortwave is expected to continue east across the central and
southern great lakes monday with a resultant increase in mid-
level flow yielding 40-50 knots of deep layer effective shear.
this mid-level jet will encourage a low-level jet response by
monday evening to possibly ignite a new mcs over southern lower
michigan, lake erie, and northern ohio ahead of a cold front,
but the location and strength of this development depends on how
much cloud debris and showers from sunday night linger into
monday. if clouds and leftover showers are widespread into
monday afternoon, instability will be reduced, and the new
convection may be less organized or develop outside of our area.
however, if the sunday night activity clears out quickly monday
morning allowing for strong destabilization, then a potent
severe weather and heavy rainfall set up could materialize
monday evening into monday night. the strong shear and
potentially strong instability could support widespread and
significant wind damage, as well as embedded tornadoes if the
higher ceiling can be reached, and a persistent westerly
nocturnal low-level jet oriented increasingly parallel to the
sagging cold front by monday night also supports backbuilding
and training convection with an associated flash flood risk. a
wpc slight risk for excessive rainfall has been introduced for
most of the area monday and monday night, and the area also
remains in an spc severe weather outlook.

the front looks to be slow to sink south tuesday as it remains
aligned parallel to the wnw mid/upper flow, and additional shortwave
energy and remnant outflow boundaries interacting with it in the
continued moist environment could support additional thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall, so maintained high pops through tuesday.

key message 3...
the broad mid/upper trough will continue to slowly
deepen across the great lakes and northeast conus wednesday into
next weekend as a series of shortwaves gradually force the southern
conus ridge into the 4 corners region and help the longwave trough
to carve out as a closed low becomes established near hudson bay.
this will continue to push the active frontal boundary slowly
southward, so have gradually decreasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms mid to late week. this will also allow progressively
cooler and less humid conditions to filter in, with highs in the 70s
by thursday and friday and lows dipping into the 50s in some areas.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
mvfr ceilings have been loathe to scatter out this afternoon,
especially locations east and south, following this morning`s
shower and thunderstorm activity. a cold front will approach
from the northwest later today, ushering in some fairly
transient showers and thunderstorms. all terminals can expect
to see a period of two to three hours with thunderstorms on
station, after which light winds and vfr conditions will persist
into the nighttime. toward daybreak, brief radiational fog
(i.e., sunrise surprise) is expected to develop at nearly all
locations. dry, vfr conditions are expected through much of
sunday.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are are expected sunday
night through thursday, along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with the passage of a couple frontal boundaries.
some storms could be strong to severe during this timeframe,
especially on monday.

&&

.marine...
southwest flow will maintain across the lake today ahead of a
cold front. the cold front will cross the lake tonight bringing
some scattered shower and storm activity to the region, followed
by northwest flow on the lake tonight. a brief ridge will build
into the region and return southwest flow to the lake on sunday.
a series of low pressure systems with shower and thunderstorm
chances will move through the region on sunday night through
tuesday. winds on the lake will start southwest and become
westerly on tuesday. a weak ridge will reenter the region on
wednesday and bring light but variable flow over the lake.
overall, any marine headlines through the period will be tied to
shower and thunderstorm activity and probably not winds/waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...27
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
905
fxus63 kiwx 081803
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
203 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight chance (20%) for a brief shower or storm this
afternoon along and south of the us 24 corridor.

- an active pattern brings periodic chances for thunderstorms
sunday afternoon through the middle of the upcoming week.
some storms could be severe and may also result in flash
flooding, especially sunday night through monday night.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

a cold front will sag southeast through northeast in and northwest
oh this afternoon. this front will have up to near 2000 j/kg of
mlcape to work with. however, lacking deep forcing/moisture, and
only 15-20 kts of effective shear, should keep any convection sub-
severe and isolated (10-30%) along the front. drier air then briefly
settles in post-frontal tonight and sunday morning, with the
potential for patchy fog early sunday as winds go light/calm under a
mainly clear sky.

the aforementioned frontal boundary will lift back northeast toward
the mi state line sunday afternoon into sunday night on the nose of
increasing low level west-southwest flow. this will allow very
muggy/unstable air to advect back into the lower great lakes. this
will set the stage for a prolonged, convectively active period
across the region through midweek as several low amplitude
shortwaves send convective complexes through on the southern fringes
of developing west-northwest flow aloft.

chances for convection will enter the picture sunday afternoon into
early sunday evening with the initial theta-e surge and some
semblance of an incoming mcs from the west. the bulk of the area may
see this feature in a weakening, more elevated state, though
could see a few cells rooted in the surface (potentially severe)
into northwest in, depending on the timing/intensity of
convection, and the positioning of the sfc warm front. 12z cams
did come into better agreement on another subtle impulse
invigorating a cluster of convection along the frontal slope
later sunday night over mainly northern zones, possibly sinking
south over the area through mid morning monday. flooding appears
to be the primary risk, though a low end wind threat could
emerge if a decent cold pool becomes established.

forecast specifics become increasingly uncertain with time monday
through wednesday as where the next several convective clusters
track will depend on how the previous convective cycle played out,
and how any cold pools modulate where mesoscale composite outflow
boundaries set up for renewed diurnally driven thunderstorm
activity. it is worth noting that shear/instability/moisture
profiles will support the potential for severe thunderstorms and
flooding, particularly late monday afternoon into monday night.
otherwise, given the low confidence, held close to nbm guidance for
pops and temps in what could be a fairly active period.

models overall continue to support some suppression by thursday and
friday as troughing into the northeast us likely forces the
boundary and associated humidity/moisture off to the south.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 144 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

a weak cool front will continue to track east across northeast
indiana through the remainder of the afternoon. radar imagery
over past hour or two has exhibited some signs of a few cells
trying to develop immediately ahead of the front, but the
temporal window of this development appears quite narrow at
kfwa, and confidence to include remains too low at this time. a
low level anticyclone will build into the area tonight behind
this front which should be conducive for good radiational
cooling. relatively high crossover temps should support some
more fog formation early sunday morning with greatest confidence
of ifr or sub ifr conditions at kfwa. perturbed northwest flow
and return warm/moist advection on sunday will introduce a
greater risk of showers and thunderstorms, but not likely until
later in the afternoon or sunday night.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
989
fxus63 kdtx 081715
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
115 pm edt sat aug 8 2026

.key messages...

- isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
better coverage of showers and storms possible late tomorrow into
monday.

- temperatures remain seasonable through this weekend, with highs
mainly in the 80s.

&&

.aviation...

breezy westerly winds gradually veer to the northwest this afternoon
as a cold front migrates across the area. broken to scattered deck
of diurnal cumulus has developed, with low vfr bases between 3.0 and
6.0 kft agl. high pressure and a drier airmass are filling in behind
the front, effectively capping off the environment to thunderstorms
for the rest of the day. there is still a very low chance that a
thunderstorm could break the cap, but those chances have decreased.
the high pressure ridge axis drifts overhead overnight, quickly
shifting winds from northwest to the south sunday morning with clear
skies expected.

d21/dtw convection... brief intervals of sub-5000 ft ceilings are
possible early this afternoon, but drier air encourages an overall
scattering trend. very low potential (less than 20%) for
a thunderstorm this afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 5000 ft this afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 327 am edt sat aug 8 2026

discussion...

a weak cold front will progress across se mi this afternoon and
provide the primary focus for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorm development. around 1500 j/kg of sbcape will be
available ahead and along of the boundary although deep-layer shear
remains on the weaker side at 20 knots or less. this will favor
pulse-type convection with limited organization. some better
coverage will be possible within the thumb, aided by localized
convergence near the land/lake interface. the severe weather threat
remains very low, but steep-low level lapse rates and elevated dcape
values will support the low-end risk for a localized strong wet
microburst with any robust development. shower and thunderstorm
chances end after the passage of the front this evening.

forecast confidence decreases considerably tomorrow into monday as
attention turns to convective development upstream across the upper
midwest. strengthening low-level south flow will bring enhanced
moisture transport across iowa and minnesota, supporting
thunderstorms along the nose of the llj. propagation of the
forecasted mcs east or southeast will place the great lakes region
at risk for shower and thunderstorm potential by later in the day on
sunday. surface-based instability in this setup looks limited
locally, especially by the later evening hours, although building
elevated instability will be capable of sustaining thunderstorm
potential. elevated activity would also bring potential for locally
heavy rainfall and hail.

evolution of storms leading into monday will then be highly
dependent on sunday activity as outflow boundaries will have
substantial influence on monday instability and subsequent storm
development. should any outflow settle south of the state line,
higher stability over michigan affords much higher probabilities for
more limited storm development. where conversely a lingering
boundary across the cwa could be a focal point for multiple rounds of
renewed thunderstorm development, potentially strong given the better
shear, along with localized heavy rainfall with any thunderstorm
training.

marine...

most marine areas will remain dry with only a slight chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm going through the day as a cold
front pushes across the region. winds will generally remain on the
lighter side outside of any thunderstorm activity that does occur.
southerly flow will turn northwest going through the day on saturday
behind the departing cold front and may briefly top at or above 20
knots over northern lake huron. high pressure then builds back in
late saturday into sunday before switching back to the south ahead
of another system set to impact the region monday. rain and
thunderstorm activity will remain low through the weekend, with
better chances for unsettled weather coming in at the start of next
week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...am
marine.......ss


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