Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
983
fxus61 kcle 261922
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
322 pm edt tue may 26 2026

.what has changed...
chances for light rain showers wednesday have increased,
especially south of a findlay, oh to meadville, pa line.

&&

.key messages...
1) light showers are expected late tonight and wednesday,
especially south of a findlay, oh to meadville, pa line. the
lakeshore counties will probably not see any rain.

2) dry and very pleasant weather expected thursday through early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the only opportunity for rain over the next 7 days (and likely
beyond) will be late tonight and wednesday as weak low pressure
traverses an old frontal boundary. the boundary is currently
draped over the tennessee valley, and moisture advection and
isentropic ascent is driving a band of showers north of this
boundary along and north of the ohio river. clouds will
increase from south to north this evening and tonight, and as
the surface low moves out of the mid mississippi valley and into
the lower ohio valley late tonight, the warm/moist advection and
isentropic ascent will strengthen and lift the boundary
slightly farther north by wednesday morning. this combined with
a 60-70 knot h3 jet associated with the mid/upper shortwave will
bring showers into the region. the latest href, rap, and nam
are in general agreement on a band of showers setting up along
and south of a roughly findlay to meadville line in the 09-16z
timeframe before shifting southeastward through the afternoon as
the mid/upper shortwave and associated surface low depart.
increased pops to likely/categorical in much of this swath late
tonight through early wednesday afternoon, with some chance pops
farther north, although the lakeshore counties will probably
not see any rain.

a northern stream cold front will drop across the region
wednesday night and overtake the old frontal boundary, with
strong canadian high pressure then building down across the
great lakes thursday through the weekend leading to cool, dry n
to ne flow.

key message 2...
as mentioned above, a long stretch of dry and pleasant weather
that sets in thursday will likely persist beyond the next 7
days. as the aforementioned canadian high at the surface builds
across the great lakes thursday through the weekend, it will be
held largely in place by an omega block in the mid and upper
levels. lingering mid/upper troughing over the ne conus will
evolve into a large closed low by early next week while a series
of mid/upper troughs and closed lows rotate through the rockies.
this will pinch off a large mid/upper ridge in between across
the northern plains and central canada. this block will also be
reinforced by southern stream troughing in the deep south. the
great lakes and ohio valley regions will remain on the dry side
of the omega block, with upper level confluence and surface high
pressure across the lakes supporting mostly sunny skies and
cool n to ne flow thursday well into next week. this will keep
high temps mostly in the low/mid 70s, with low temps in the
upper 40s/low 50s.


&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
sw`erly to nw`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances impact
northern oh and nw pa through 18z/wed. at the surface, a high
pressure ridge exits slowly se`ward as a weak cold front
approaches from the northern great lakes and reaches southern
lower mi and the northern shore of lake erie by 18z/wed. our
regional surface winds trend mainly light and variable through
the taf period. however, a lake breeze of about 5 to 10 knots is
expected over and within several miles of lake erie until
~23z/tues and after ~16z/wed. this lake breeze is expected to
impact kcle and keri.

primarily vfr and variable amounts of low/mid/upper-level
cloudiness are expected through the taf period. however, moist
ascent ahead of the axis of one of the disturbances aloft should
allow rain showers, steady to heavy at times, to overspread our
region from the south and west after ~06z/wed and persist
through 18z/wed, especially roughly along and south of a line
through kyng and kfdy. periodic mvfr may accompany showers. a
few thunderstorms are possible, but confidence in a thunderstorm
impacting any taf site is low.

note: areas of mist and/or fog may form via nocturnal cooling amidst
sufficient low-level moisture after ~05z/wed before dissipating
soon after daybreak wed. however, odds favor abundant cloud
cover preventing mist and/or fog formation.

outlook...scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with
non-vfr are possible wednesday afternoon through evening.
current odds favor dry weather and vfr this thursday through
sunday.

&&

.marine...
a high pressure ridge exits slowly se`ward before a weak cold front
sweeps generally s`ward across lake erie late wednesday afternoon
through evening. variable winds around 5 to 10 knots ahead of the
cold front become n`erly to ne`erly around 5 to 15 knots behind the
front as a high pressure ridge begins to build from the hudson bay
area. this ridge should continue to build generally from the north
on thursday through this sunday and be accompanied by mainly nw`erly
to ne`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots. waves are expected to be 3
feet or less the rest of this week through sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
474
fxus63 kiwx 262348
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
748 pm edt tue may 26 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably warm for wednesday with highs from the upper 70s,
to middle 80s. little day to day temperature variation then
expected from thursday into the weekend with highs in mid-
upper 70s.

- low chance for showers and isolated storms late tonight into
wednesday am (20-40%, mainly along and south of us route 24).
an isolated shower or storm also possible far northeast
indiana into south central lower michigan late wednesday
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt tue may 26 2026

water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts an upper level low
centered across oklahoma. an elongated west-east oriented vort max
extends east of this feature across southern missouri into southern
indiana. this west-east vort max is aligned with an upper level
shear zone that will lift northward tonight into early
wednesday. this pattern is supporting a warm-frontal type
feature across southern indiana which will attempt to make some
northward progress into central indiana this evening. near term
low level moisture transport progs indicate that stronger
moisture transport remains situated across central indiana
overnight into early wednesday morning, gradually weakening
through time across northern indiana. this vort max will also
begin to encounter some mid/upper level westerlies across
southern great lakes region due to positioning of the northern
latitude longwave upper ridging which should tend to continue to
shear this disturbance. given this synoptic setup, a fairly
sharp south to north cut-off in rain chances still appears to
be in order late tonight into wednesday morning with greatest
rain chances generally along and south of us route 24. an
isolated thunderstorm is possible, although given weak mid level
lapse rates and diurnally unfavored timing, this potential
seems limited (15-20 percent thunder pops across the south).

synoptic forcing for wednesday will not be all that strong given
slowing/weakening axis of low level moisture transport from the
south and a northwest flow wave still likely displaced to the
north across central lower michigan. best chances of showers and
perhaps an isolated storm should be through early afternoon
along and south of us route 24. by late afternoon/early evening,
some weak pooling of low level moisture and some increase in
upper forcing with the northern stream short wave could lead to
an isolated shower or storm across far ne in/far nw oh/south
central lower mi. otherwise, wednesday should feature warm
conditions, with highest max temps likely across the northern
half of the local area slightly displaced from thicker cloud
cover and influence from isolated-scattered rain showers. given
weakness of the gradient, some weak lake breeze will likely
develop although would suspect even lakeshore areas could make a
run at 80 before turning slightly cooler in the afternoon if a
lake breeze is able to form.

an overall uneventful forecast appears to be in store for thursday
into early next week as a broad low level anticyclone settles across
the area and longwave pattern experiences blocking nature with
central conus ridging lodged between west/east longwave troughs. the
position of this ridge axis should allow for local area to be
on southwest periphery of eastern great lakes low level thermal
troughing which should provide seasonable temperatures and low
humidity values given persistent north/northeast low level flow.
some indications in medium range guidance that some
retrogression of this blocked pattern could allow stronger upper
vort to shift west across the southern great lakes in the mon-
wed timeframe. however, moisture availability should be limited
given the large scale synoptic pattern and have maintained a dry
forecast through this valid period.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 742 pm edt tue may 26 2026

vfr conditions expected at both terminals, with light s-se flow
becoming variable overnight into early wednesday. winds remain
light but shift n-nw by late wednesday afternoon-evening behind
a cold front. light rain showers or sprinkles are possible at
kfwa overnight, however left out of taf given no expected
impacts. models also suggested br development at both terminals
(mvfr/vfr at 4-6sm), but given weaker inversion than last night
and cloud cover (especially at kfwa), don`t feel confident to
include in the taf at this point.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert from 11 pm this evening to 11 pm cdt
wednesday for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
094
fxus63 kdtx 262359
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
759 pm edt tue may 26 2026

.key messages...

- summer-like temperatures continue through wednesday.

- the warm air carries a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
late wednesday as a cold front settles through se michigan.

- temperatures return closer to late may normals from thursday
through next weekend.

- no rain is currently expected during the late week through next
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through tonight with only high clouds to
speak of. a south to southwest wind at 5 to 10 knots will ease
tonight to light or variable for the bulk of the overnight period as
a dry cold front sinks southward. frontal boundary is forecast to
stall out around the southern michigan border tomorrow. have
introduced a prob30 group for all taf sites late tomorrow afternoon
as this frontal boundary will be a focus for isolated/scattered
showers with potentially some isolated thunder. probability for
thunder is too low to mention in tafs at this time.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance of a thunderstorm late tomorrow
afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 352 pm edt tue may 26 2026

discussion...

ideal late may weather across se mi is driven by surface high
pressure centered on the ohio border to mid atlantic coast. the air
mass carries above normal warmth but lower humidity enabling
afternoon highs in the lower and mid 80s across the region. this
despite a veil of increasingly opaque cirrus resulting in filtered
afternoon sunshine, except for the tri cities where a longer period
of full sun and newly developing sw flow is having a greater effect
on the warming trend.

dry and mild conditions continue this evening, ahead of a backdoor
cold front as it settles southward over the northern and central
great lakes. james bay low pressure is pulling the front slowly
southward keeping it on schedule to enter se mi early in the
morning. it then nearly stalls toward the ohio border due to the
approach of a trailing mid level short wave. this wave catches up to
the otherwise shallow frontal zone to provide a boost of support for
scattered showers and a rumble of thunder. href mean indicates some
pooling of surface based instability along and south of the front
around 21z wednesday afternoon. greater values toward the ohio
border are still sub 1000 j/kg, worthy of an isolated mention in the
forecast south of the i-96 corridor.

passage of the mid level wave drives the front aggressively into the
ohio valley wednesday night as broad and strong high pressure builds
over nearly the entire great lakes by thursday morning. the air mass
is cooler but not by much compared to the strength of the surface
high, and especially compared to recent temperature swings so far
this month. guidance high temperature projections drop back toward
normal values in the lower 70s while north wind gusting near 20 mph
keeps the lake huron shoreline much cooler.

the surface high is powered by larger scale subsidence in nw flow
aloft that is downstream from the blocky 500 mb plains ridge. this
ridge becomes centered on the northern plains and midwest by friday
to maintain dry weather in lower mi through the late week period.
consensus of extended range deterministic models then brings a
larger low pressure system into quebec and a reinforcing cold front
through the great lakes during saturday.

marine...

a cold front has dropped south across lake superior this morning and
will begin dropping through lake huron this evening. south of the
front, the winds will get a little gusty through the evening
reaching 20 to 25 knots. this will mostly affect saginaw bay. the
front will continue southward tonight into wednesday passing through
lake erie wednesday afternoon. winds will flip around to the north-
northwest behind the front tonight. another area of high pressure
builds into the region behind the front as well and will lead to
varying winds throughout the end of the week. there may be periods
with enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave
activity in nearshore zones at times.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...bt
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.