Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
116 pm est fri jan 2 2026

.synopsis...
a trough will cross lake erie this morning giving way to a ridge
building in from the upper midwest later today. another trough will
slide southeast across the great lakes region on saturday night.
broad high pressure will build east across the region sunday
followed by a warm front lifting north across the area on monday.

&&

.near term /through saturday/...
band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow is oriented parallel to
the shoreline east of grand river at 3 am. lake effect snow warnings
and advisories remain in effect until 1 pm for ashtabula county and
4 pm for erie and crawford counties in pennsylvania. snowfall
amounts will depend on the speed that this band pushes inland and
the transition from the his heavy single band of snow to more of a
multi-banded northwest flow set up. snowfall rates within the
heavier band could be 1-2" per hour but only through 4 or 5 am
before we see intensity start to decrease. this also corresponds
with the loss of deeper moisture that extends through about 11k feet
early this morning. despite losing the deeper moisture over the
next couple hours, we maintain steep lapse rates and moisture
through the dendritic growth zone that descends below 7k feet
late tonight into the morning hours. snow ratios remain
favorable at around 20:1 with temperatures in the upper teens to
low 20s. patchy blowing of snow is possible with winds gusting
around 20 mph.

otherwise, high pressure is centered over the upper midwest with
surface ridging expanding southeast into ohio. very dry air with
clearing across northern wisconsin will expand across lower michigan
this morning and then across lake erie through the afternoon. this
will eventually bring an end to the accumulating snowfall later
today. southerly portions of the forecast area will see a fair
amount of sun today. with that said we will start the day off cold
with wind chills in the single digits and only recovering into the
teens this afternoon. tonight will cold again but will have some mid
to high cloud spreading overhead late tonight through saturday.

&&

.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
another shortwave trough, merging with energy dropping south out of
canada, will cross the central great lakes saturday night. while it
will take some time to overcome dry air in the low levels, we do
expect snow to fill in across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. snowfall amounts will tend to be an inch or less in
the ohio snowbelt with 1-3 inches in erie county pennsylvania. this
quick shot of snow will end as high pressure builds overhead with
expanding subsidence and moisture depth decreasing through sunday
morning from west to east.

this trough exits off the east coast on sunday while a ridge aloft
builds overhead. southwesterly flow ramps up on monday as surface
high pressure shifts east of the region and low pressure moves into
the upper great lakes, lifting a warm front north across the area.
precipitation will tend to be focused mainly north of the area but
could see a few light snow showers in the northeast. high
temperatures trend 7-10 degrees warmer on monday.

&&

.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
a quasi-zonal pattern looks to set up for the start of the long term
forecast. hard to determine this far out if we could be clipped by a
few rain showers next week as temperatures warm into the 40s. the
pattern does trend more amplified by thursday with a trough crossing
the great basin and moist southerly flow bringing increasing changes
of rain on thursday.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
an expansive stratus deck encompasses the entire forecast area
this afternoon with ceilings in the 1500-3500 ft range.
additionally, lake effect snow will persist across much of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. wide ranging
visibilities will accompany lake effect snow to as low as 1 sm
(though there have been a few occasional observations less than
that even).

a dry airmass will accompany high pressure as it builds in from
the west this evening and tonight. this should allow for
gradual dissipation of cloud cover and lake effect snow from
west to east tonight. compared to the previous forecast, lake
effect snow and clouds will hang around longer than expected.
confidence is lower than normal for when lake effect snow/clouds
dissipate for sites downwind of lake erie in northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. in general though, should see lake
effect gradually dissipate and end tonight, with no showers by
12z saturday.

west winds around 8-12 winds are expected with occasional gusts
to 20 knots; slightly stronger winds to 15 knots with gusts near
25 knots close to the lake erie lakeshore. winds become light
and variable tonight.

outlook...non-vfr is expected across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania with snow showers saturday night into
early sunday and again monday morning. additional non-vfr
possible in rain showers tuesday and tuesday night.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories remain in effect from avon point east
through 4 am est saturday morning. west winds 15 to 20 knots and
waves of 3 to 6 feet (in ice free areas) are anticipated
through this evening before winds diminish and waves subside
late tonight into early saturday morning.

high pressure builds across the region saturday through monday,
with much quieter weather expected on lake erie during this
period. southerly winds develop on monday, gradually becoming
southwesterly on tuesday and west on wednesday, with wind speeds
at or below 15 knots, and ice-free areas at or below 2 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
ohz012>014-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
paz003.
lake effect snow warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for
paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est saturday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...10
near term...10
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
148 pm est fri jan 2 2026

.key messages...
- temperatures remain below normal through the weekend, with a
trend back to above normal levels for much of next week.

- additional weak systems may graze the area sunday night and again
tuesday evening, with little or no impact expected.

- better chances for rain return thursday and friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm est fri jan 2 2026

increasing subsidence, warming 850 mb temps and a weakening flow
is finally bringing an end to the lingering lake effect
flurries/light snowshowers. although we get rid of the precip,
continued nw flow and slowing increasing low level inversion
from modest start of waa as well as the next weak disturbance
(set to pass mainly north of the area) will keep some sort of
cloud cover in place at least into sat night. other than the
clouds, little overall in the way of impacts is expected. a
slightly stronger wave drops quickly se into the region sunday
night. as noted in the previous discussion, and area of weak and
quite narrow isentropic lift is noted. overall setup not very
impressive and likely doesn`t warrant anymore than the slgt chc
to chc pops that remain in the forecast.

all of the above factors will lead to a continuation of below normal
temperatures into the weekend, but as upper ridging increasing and
850 mb temps climb above freezing a warm up remains on track for the
upcoming week. weak disturbances passing north of the region will
cause some fluctuations in low level temperatures, but overall 40s
should be fairly common with 50s appearing from time to time mainly
in the us-24 corridor.

a stronger southern stream wave will eject from the baja california
area mid week, towards the region for thursday and friday. this
feature will tap gulf moisture to bring increasing chances of
showers (maybe storms), with timing and track differences still
existing (as expected this far out).

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1213 pm est fri jan 2 2026

scattered light lake effect snow showers and flurries continue
downwind of lake michigan this afternoon. precipitation is
mainly north and east of ksbn but have added in a vcsh mention
for this afternoon. mvfr ceilings persist due to lake effect
clouds; model data seems too optimistic with clearing this
evening so have kept bkn in the tafs although vfr ceilings
should return by this evening and overnight. high pressure is
building in so expect winds to relax this evening. overnight and
into saturday morning, winds should be nearly calm.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1200 pm est fri jan 2 2026

.key messages...

- cold weather will persist through the weekend. wind chills are
forecast to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above zero.

- the next chance of light snow up to around an inch will come
saturday afternoon and evening, with highest chances across the
saginaw valley and northern thumb.

- the potential exists for accumulating snowfall over 1 inch sunday
night into monday morning. the highest likelihood for impacts to the
monday morning commute is currently located north of m-59.

&&

.aviation...

western edge of the cloud shield over lake michigan is eroding as
inversion heights lower and drier air advances into the region. snow
showers/flurries coming to an end early this afternoon, with enough
drying expected to allow skies to become clear this evening, despite
continued light westerly flow. week surface ridging in place
saturday morning with keep weather dry, with just an increase in mid-
high clouds.


dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet through mid afternoon, then low
late today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 956 am est fri jan 2 2026

update...

main forecast update this morning is the broad addition of chance
pops to account for the lingering lake effect snow showers surviving
into se michigan. large flakes are the result of a saturated ~4.5 kft
agl boundary layer that falls right within the dendritic growth
zone, leading to efficient snowflake growth. will see these snow
showers persist through most of the morning, capable of grinding out
minor accumulations (most likely trace to 0.1") as temperatures hold
in the teens to low 20s. should see these snow showers begin to taper
this afternoon as a drier airmass fills into the area and diurnal
heating promotes a more cellular nature to the snow showers.

prev discussion...
issued at 345 am est fri jan 2 2026

discussion...

remnants of a trough axis draped across lower mi has kept light snow
showers grinding away all night with the connection to lake mi
moisture still present. bulk of activity has held between i69 and
m59 with a couple tenths through the overnight. all indications are
for the mid level subsidence to increase through the early morning
with rh fields drying out as high pressure stretches from the
midwest southeastward into the ohio valley. will keep a chance of
snow showers going a few more hours with a transition to flurries
for the daytime hours. though moisture will get stripped out of mid
levels, subsidence will strengthen the low level inversion which
will still be in the dgz though only 3-4kft up. so will probably
squeeze out some flurries before the high takes a greater hold later
in the afternoon and thins the cloud field.

before the northwesterly flow pattern breaks down to start the new
week, there will be another opportunity for light snow accumulations
saturday afternoon and evening as the next clipper in the active
pattern drops through northern mi. track hasn`t changed much this
forecast cycle with the low tracking through the u.p. and northern
lake huron with the mid level trough dropping across lower mi with
the left exit region of the jet clipping mid mi and the thumb. weak
fgen and specific humidity only around 1 g/kg will offer some
forcing and moisture to work with. qpf remains under a 0.1 inch and
highest over the northern thumb, tapering off quickly southward. nbm
probabilities offer less than a 50 percent chance for ptk to
accumulate a half inch of snow and 20 percent for detroit. most of
the snow will fall between 21z sat and 03z sun.

thermal trough still over the great lakes with 850mb temps down in
the negative mid teens will warm slightly this weekend, but not
enough to help highs out of the 20s through sunday. wind chills will
largely stay below 20 through the weekend as well.

ridge building over the west coast will drift eastward through the
weekend reaching the great lakes sunday. riding the lead flank of
the ridge will be yet another compact mid level system and attendant
surface low which again is targeting northern mi. the left exit
region will pass over southern mi with isentropic ascent forcing
snow showers across the area sunday night into monday morning.
moisture will be better with this system but again focused north of
i69. local probabilistic guidance give this area a 50 to 70 percent
chance of 1 inch of accumulation and 25 percent chance of 2 inches.
locations south of i69 are looking for up to an inch. this will be
better defined as we get into the hires window.

as this wave passes and the ridge pushes farther east over the
region, a warming trend is set to occur through the week. temps will
reach above freezing on monday with 40s in the forecast creeping
into the area as early as tuesday, but more widespread for thursday
and friday. there will be a chance of rain on tuesday with the next
system but then we may catch a few dry days through mid week.

marine...

wnw winds continue to gust 20-25kts today with some lingering 30kts
gusts possible over the northernmost portions of lake huron as the
region is influenced by broad troughing over eastern canada. arctic
airmass in place combined with these winds maintains areas of
freezing spray in the open waters of lake huron through the day as
well (especially in the north). the northeastern edge of plains
surface high pressure attempts to build into the region saturday
however is blunted by a weak clipper dropping out of the canadian
prairie into the northern great lakes. this does however set up a
weaker overall gradient, relative to these past few days, allowing
for 20kt or less nw turning w wind daytime saturday with only a
fairly brief uptick in nw winds (still likely sub 25kts) in the
immediate wake of the low saturday night. plains high then drifts
east over the great lakes/ohio valley sunday supporting light
(<15kt) winds and dry weather to close out the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
update.......mv
discussion...drk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.