Lucas and Wood Counties
link
696
fxus61 kcle 221147
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
747 am edt sat aug 22 2026
...12z taf aviation forecast update...
.what has changed...
there is now a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms from our central and eastern ohio counties points
east into northwest pa this afternoon and evening. increased
rain chances outside of the "snowbelt" sunday afternoon/evening.
&&
.key messages...
1) scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to
develop and then move east-southeast across the area this
afternoon and evening. some storms may turn severe with pockets
of damaging winds the main risk. isolated hail and locally
heavy rain are secondary threats.
2) below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and
start the upcoming week. periodic lake-enhanced rain showers
will primarily impact portions of northeast oh and northwest pa
late tonight through at least monday night, with a few showers
or storms elsewhere sunday afternoon/evening.
3) outside of lake-enhanced showers, a period of dry and
tranquil weather is expected the first half of the week. the
next potential weather maker brings chances for showers and
a few storms late wednesday and primarily thursday.
&&
.discussion...
key message 1...
the combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/
moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early
this morning, primarily over lake erie but extending southwest
into parts of north central oh as of 3 am. while this activity
is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this
morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world
awakens, particularly over and close to lake erie. while it may
not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater
shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to
severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours.
aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central great lakes today
into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative
tilt. this will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen
while drifting out of northern michigan and into southern
ontario late today and tonight. a pre-frontal trough is still
expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from
west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in northwest oh
late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area
through this evening. large scale forcing for ascent will
maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds
the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the
northern oh/lake erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is
evident even earlier in the day.
showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the
midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in
coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon
and early evening. showers/storms are expected to exit southeast
this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly
transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. activity
will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake
breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the i-77
corridor this afternoon, and across northwest oh along the cold
front itself. given the increasing forcing into the late
afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it`s
likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread
convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas
likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. with that
said, nearly all cams develop fairly numerous storms along the
cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are
that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm
this afternoon/evening on the balance.
there is some potential for both severe weather and locally
heavy rain with storms this afternoon/evening, though the
overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards.
clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will
slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped
instability (1000-2000 j/kg of mlcape) is expected to develop
through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around
8c/km. some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest
dcape values in the 500-800 j/kg range. these marginal
thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep-
layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized
convection. the primary severe threat today will be locally
damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters
that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells.
isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts
that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within
storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow
will be more backed. while the overall lower-end environment and
potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the
atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most cams have
quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization
depicted, giving the spc confidence to introduce a slight risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of
the i-75 corridor (and a marginal/level 1 of 5 for i-75).
in terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west-
southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front,
so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training
does exist. precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are
not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we
will need to monitor portions of northeast oh/northwest pa for
repeated storms or training convection that can still drop
localized 2-3" rain amounts. otherwise, area-average qpf will
generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least
across northwest oh and greatest across northeast oh/northwest
pa. the wpc has introduced a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across northeast oh
and northwest pa in their latest excessive rainfall outlook.
key message 2...
after pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the
surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern great
lakes will continue to deepen through sunday while beginning to
stack, cut-off, and slow. the system will then start to slowly
fill/weaken sunday night and monday while drifting to the east-
northeast across southeastern canada and new england. the
seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and
lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/
upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the
weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain.
850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9c sunday night into
early monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0c as
500mb temperatures fall to around -20c.
most of the area will dry out late this evening into the
overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west-
northwest flow aligns over the ~25c lake waters some lake-
enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into northeast
oh/northwest pa. a vort max and low-level trough axis will
cross the region very late tonight into early sunday, likely
causing activity to peak in organization. while some lake effect
showers will continue on sunday across northeast oh/northwest
pa, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for
several hours after the morning trough passage. another potent
vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the
northwest late sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another
uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast
of lake erie from as far west as the islands and sandusky points
east. there will also be an uptick in showers across the rest
of the area with the trough passage late sunday afternoon and
evening. chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through
at least monday night or early tuesday and some lake effect/
enhanced shower activity remains likely. however, there will
likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized
later sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. a
possible exception is monday night when another vort max and
trough passage is hinted at. that could cause one last uptick
in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east.
in terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over
the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake-
enhanced activity...especially through the first half of sunday
night. the overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest
fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn`t overly
favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk
across the snowbelt. however, rain amounts will gradually add up
(especially through sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers
are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will
need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of northeast oh or
northwest pa see locally heavy rain today. the heaviest rain
amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore
form the cleveland area points east-northeast. otherwise, with
cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any
thunderstorms with the trough passage late sunday afternoon/
evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially
over and downwind of lake erie.
key message 3...
locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected
to dry out sunday night and remain dry into the first half of
the week. lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting
late sunday night and eventually end by tuesday as discussed
above. overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the
week across much of the area. temperatures will slowly rebound
towards normal starting on tuesday. another trough is expected
to dig into the great lakes wednesday night and thursday. this
will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its
associated fronts. chances for showers and some storms may
arrive as early as wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most
favored on thursday with this system.
&&
.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
the primary concerns and possible impacts for our local
aviation weather at area airports will be the potential for a
round of scattered convection this afternoon into the early
evening. there is a slight risk for a couple strong to severe
storms ahead of an approaching cold front later today. the cold
front will start to move into nwoh around midday to early
afternoon. there are prob30 groups for a 5 to 6 hour time window
from west to east between 17z this afternoon to 01z this
evening. any heavier showers and storm that impacts a taf site
will likely have a brief period of mvfr to ifr visibility
reductions and ceilings with cb around 3k feet near the frontal
passage. the convection should move eastward out of the neoh and
nwpa after 00z scattered lake enhanced rain showers will likely
develop around cle, yng, and eri late this evening into the
overnight with possible mvfr ceilings and visibility at times.
winds will start out from the south or southwest this morning 5
to 10 knots. southwest winds will slightly increase 8 to 12
knots by midday through the afternoon/evening with gusts up to
20 knots possible. any isolated strong to severe convection may
have some isolated higher wind gusts up to 45 knots this
afternoon. winds will switch from the west-northwest late this
evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots.
outlook...non-vfr conditions will be likely sunday through
monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated
thunder possible for areas downwind of lake erie in northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
&&
.marine...
marine weather conditions on lake erie will become rough and
not ideal later tonight and continuing through late monday.
there is a round of strong storms over the central basin of lake
erie this morning that will track eastward through sunrise.
gusty winds up to 35 knots and isolated waterspouts could be
possible with these early morning storms over the lake. a cold
front will approach lake erie from the west late this afternoon
and move across later this evening. winds ahead of the cold
front will be from the south to southwest 10 to 15 knots today
and waves of 1 to 2 feet. scattered strong to severe storms will
be possible again this afternoon and evening with the frontal
passage. winds will shift around from the west to northwest
tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue sunday through monday. waves
will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those rough
conditions will likely continue sunday through monday.
waterspouts will be very possible on lake erie starting tonight
and lingering through monday. small craft advisories and beach
hazard statements for rip currents have been issued late
tonight through at least monday morning. these headlines will
more than likely need to be extended later into monday with
future updates. high pressure will slowly build in monday into
tuesday with nicer lake weather conditions returning by tuesday.
by tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15
knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from late tonight through monday
morning for ohz009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from late tonight through monday
morning for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 10 am edt monday
for lez144>149.
&&
$$
discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77
Monroe and Lenawee Counties
link
464
fxus63 kdtx 221405
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1005 am edt sat aug 22 2026
.key messages...
- scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning
become more widespread this afternoon. there is a threat for
localized urban flooding in the i-96 and m-59 corridors.
- there is a marginal/isolated risk of strong/severe thunderstorms
this afternoon.
- breezy and cooler conditions arrive sunday with scattered showers
through sunday night.
- a stray shower in the morning, otherwise dry monday with slightly
below normal temperatures.
&&
.update...
showers and storms this morning are occurring along and ahead of an
elongated axis of pv noted in water vapor imagery, passing overhead
just ahead of the main area of height falls associated with the
larger scale trough digging across wisconsin into lake michigan.
this forcing will persist through early afternoon with surface wind
obs indicating much of the elevated convection has undergone a
transition to surface-based. the main threats will be sub-severe
gusty winds in the strongest cores, lightning, and heavy downpours.
this activity has preferentially developed along a sfc-900mb pseudo
warm front and outflow feature along the m-59 corridor, leading to
training storms and 2 to 3" amounts already in spots per mrms.
localized convergence along this axis will continue to work eastward
the rest of the morning, suggesting the threat for localized heavy
rain and potential for urban flooding will persist between the i-96
and m-59 corridors through early afternoon.
the dtx sounding highlighted modest lapse rates of 6.5 c/km in the
500-700mb layer fueling mucape of nearly 1300 j/kg, with ebwd of
around 30 kt. this is forecast to remain relatively steady today,
with daytime heating eroding the remnant nocturnal stable layer. the
surface cold front is evident in upstream radar imagery from gaylord
down to grand rapids. this will pass overhead this afternoon,
driving the next flare-up in convection. no changes to the previous
forecast for this period with widespread coverage of showers and
storms likely, and a threat for strong to severe wind gusts in the
strongest storms. will closely monitor areas that receive heavy
rainfall this morning, as these areas will be more susceptible to a
flooding threat with additional rainfall.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 644 am edt sat aug 22 2026
aviation...
height falls in advance of approaching trough are inducing deep
thetae/moisture advection over southeast michigan this morning.
moistening of the column between 6.0 and 12.0 kft agl with cloud top
cooling has resulted in shower and thunderstorm activity over
portions of the area. ifr visibility restrictions will be possible
for a short duration with any direct activity. a lull will be
possible during the late morning hours before diurnal heating leads
to shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. heart of the
trough axis and associated strong potential vorticity anomaly will
bring peak forcing for ascent between 18 and 22z this afternoon.
maintained a prevailing shower mention with a tempo for
thunderstorms. northwest gradient flow is expected to keep
conditions mixed tonight with a potential for lower stratus
development after 09z tonight.
d21/dtw convection...warm and moisture advection brings a potential
for thunderstorms this morning. convective redevelopment is expected
to occur again between 18-22z this afternoon.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* high low for thunderstorms after 18z today.
* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. moderate in the
afternoon. high tonight.
prev discussion...
issued at 353 am edt sat aug 22 2026
discussion...
an active period of showers and thunderstorms continues in a couple
of phases as straits low pressure pulls a cold front through lower
mi today. clusters of showers and thunderstorms that are ongoing
leading up to sunrise are within the low to mid level moisture axis
ahead of the cold front. this is where model soundings indicate a
deep layer of elevated instability, but with minimal cape density
shown in both the soundings and implied by plan view depictions of
850 mb li around -2 c and sub 7 c/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. this
elevated convection merges with scattered hybrid surface based
activity of similar intensity during the morning within and between
a prefrontal surface trough and the inbound cold front.
the early day activity adds some doubt about verification of model
peak instability as the cold front sweeps through se mi this
afternoon. however, href and refs members all handle the ongoing
activity reasonably well and still suggest a respectable recovery in
time for the front to support a storm flare-up while overhead and
before it exits into ontario toward early evening. there is
otherwise no big change in the cape/shear environment as href mean
surface based cape holds below 1500 j/kg with bulk shear around 25
knots, good enough for multicell clusters capable of peak gusts
approaching severe intensity as the primary hazard in the strongest
storms. the marginal risk remains in place to highlight this
potential in se mi with a slight risk now just east of the border
until the front exits early this evening.
scattered showers trail the front, mainly during the evening, as the
500 mb trough digs toward the eastern great lakes, but also as
moderate cold advection gains traction overnight. increasing nw flow
occurs across lower mi around the west flank of surface low pressure
deepening on the ontario/quebec border as the 500 mb trough deepens
and closes off early sunday. model agreement maintains the trend on
solutions offering a larger mid level circulation closing off closer
to lower mi during the day. there is also a well-defined reinforcing
vorticity maximum holding consistency in model solutions as it digs
in from the nw and moves overhead during the afternoon. guidance
probabilities for rain appear underdone in this environment as
scattered to numerous coverage is favored, especially sunday
afternoon and evening with a boost from daytime instability.
the low level thermal trough is firmly in place over the western
great lakes by monday morning with low temperatures in the upper 40s
still within reach outside of the larger metro areas. deterministic
and ensemble model guidance continue to project single digit 850 mb
temperatures to start the day which rebound quickly as the mid/upper
level low shifts eastward. a stray shower also remains in play,
especially toward the thumb region, during the morning until
confluent nw flow develops to help ensure dry weather for the
afternoon and monday night. slightly below normal highs in the upper
70s are reachable as the thermal trough shifts eastward.
weak surface high pressure is supported by a mid/upper level short
wave ridge monday night and tuesday. dry weather and a few degrees
of warming occur through mid week within the slowly progressive
large scale flow. high temperatures return to the lower 80s during
mid week while the next chance of rain is carried in by the current
pac nw system. extended range global models project it arrives in
the great lakes by wednesday.
marine...
a cold front will progress across the great lakes while expanding
shower and thunderstorm chances today. any stronger storm
development will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots
and/or small hail. winds veer to the northwest in the wake of the
passing front and will increase intensity and remain elevated
through sunday as cooler air is ushered in. wind gusts will likely
range around 25 to 30 knots through this weekend. the switch in wind
direction from the northwest will quickly build wave heights in and
around the thumb and small craft advisories are in effect beginning
tonight. high pressure builds back in monday and tuesday which will
bring lighter winds to the area.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt monday for
lhz421-441.
small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 am edt monday for
lhz422.
small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 10 am edt monday for
lhz442-443.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
update.......tf
aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......am
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.