Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
251
fxus61 kcle 271139
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
639 am est fri feb 27 2026

.what has changed...
the odds for around 1 inch of snow or more is increasing for
saturday night, while decreasing for sunday night into monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) quiet weather and warmer temperatures are expected through
tomorrow.

2) light snow is likely saturday night, which may produce
limited road impacts.

3) light snow is possible sunday night into monday, followed by
a trend towards rainy and warmer weather by mid-week.

&&

.discussion...
1) high pressure overhead departs to the east, allowing for
southwest flow to advect warm air to the region, especially
today when highs will get into the 50s, and potentially
touching 60 in a few spots in northwest ohio. a few showers may
be possible late tonight before a cold front swings through.
despite the cold front, saturday will still be on the warm
side, though there will be a sharp temperature gradient due to
a lake breeze on lake erie, keeping folks near lake erie a bit
colder.

2) brief, light snow is possible saturday night as a weak
clipper moves across the area. moisture will be lacking and
current pop forecast is only for 50-60% chance of snow. of the
models that have snow, the accumulations have increased
marginally, with odds of >1" around 30-50% and >2" around
10-30%. while temperatures will be decreasing, warm temperatures
today and tomorrow could lead to warmer ground temperatures to
start, and limit road impacts, especially if there is less than
inch of snow.

3) a baroclinic zone sets up over the region as a cold high
pressure builds in from the north and southwest flow develops to
our south. a weak shortwave moves eastward across the area,
producing a strip of light snow across the mid-mississippi/ohio
valleys. the qpe signal has been weakening over the last few
cycles, so the probability of >2" of snow has lowered to around
20-30% sunday night into monday. at this point, the most likely
likely scenario is for no precipitation across the northern
portion of our forecast area (closer to lake erie), with 1-2
inches of snow across our south in central ohio (closer to
columbus area).

an upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest conus
towards the central part of the country, leading to broad
southwest flow and the advection warm, moist air to the region.
should generally see a warming trend through the week (highs
back into at least the 50s by wednesday/thursday) with several
periods of rain showers.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
vfr will persist through the taf period. maintained a brief
window of bkn045 ceilings across western and central taf sites
through this morning/early afternoon as an area of cloud cover
pushes east. expect primarily skc to sct250 behind this area of
lower cloud cover through the remainder of today.

light and variable winds this morning will become southwesterly
at 10-15 knots sustained with occasional gusts 20-25 knots by
this afternoon. maintained llws at all taf sites this evening
and overnight tonight as a strong llj moves overhead ahead of a
cold front.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow saturday night into sunday.
non- vfr possible again in snow sunday night into monday, mainly
along and south of us-30.

&&

.marine...
the majority of the nearshore waters of lake erie remain ice-
covered at this time. offshore flow 10-15 knots today will
increase to 20-25 knots late tonight into saturday while
becoming southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front.
strong southwesterly flow may lead to additional shifting of
ice on the lake. winds turn northerly and decrease to 10-15
knots behind the cold front on saturday. onshore flow of 10-15
knots continues through the weekend before winds turn easterly
on monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
428
fxus63 kiwx 271131
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
631 am est fri feb 27 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy this afternoon with highs in the 50s and
southwest wind gusts near 30 mph.

- not as warm saturday with a period of light snow in the
evening.

- additional snow is possible (30-60% chance) sunday night and
monday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 141 am est fri feb 27 2026

a progressive mid-latitude jet stream results in a busy forecast
period with highly variable temperatures, and times of snow and
rain.

high pressure today over the eastern great lakes brings warm,
southerly flow on its western periphery to our area while warm air
advection is also under way ahead of a deepening low racing
through the canadian prairie. after a cold start, lows near
freezing give way to highs in the 50s, even some 60s south of us
24. somewhat breezy this afternoon as seen on well-mixed
forecast soundings with wind gusts near 30 mph. the canadian low
continues to deepen this evening and spreads a cold front
through our area early saturday morning. this stalls against
lingering high pressure over the tennessee valley making
saturday forecast highs somewhat uncertain north vs south.

along this stalling cold front, an upper-level impulse races through
presenting a 30-50% chance for a narrow band of snow saturday
evening and overnight. frontogenesis with this feature looks strong,
thus, a brief period of heavy snowfall will bring reduced visibility
and instances of snow covered roads, even through accumulations will
be less than 1 inch for most. one inch may be reached in southern
michigan counties. snow totals will be closer to a trace south of us-
30.

canadian high pressure keeps things cool for the remainder of the
weekend, but southerly return flow as it moves east brings a steady
warm-up into the 40s by tuesday. before this, another impulse riding
the baroclinic zone, now along the ohio river valley, threatens to
bring a period of snow to areas along and south of us 30 monday (30-
60% chance) which may bring a slippery morning commute. this isn`t a
guarantee yet, as high pressure will have a strong steering
influence in where this system tracks. something to keep an eye on
in the coming forecast cycles.

by midweek, as high pressure retreats, strong subtropical high
pressure off the southeast coast buckles the jet stream poleward
through the midwest marking the start of what could be a mild(er)
and wet pattern. forecast high temperatures on wednesday and
thursday (50s and 60s) are the warmest among model guidance, thus,
as advertised these temperatures might be a stretch. in contrast,
guidance is in fair agreement that an active weather pattern will
continue.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 630 am est fri feb 27 2026

some brief br is possible this morning given clear skies and
light winds but otherwise vfr will persist through the period
given very dry conditions in the low levels. a brief period of
llws is expected this evening ahead of a cold front that crosses
overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
723
fxus63 kdtx 271142
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
642 am est fri feb 27 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy today with southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph in
the afternoon.

- accumulating snow expected late saturday as a snowband moves into
southeast michigan.

- colder sunday, then a warming trend through next week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions today as we reside in between high pressure to the
southeast and low pressure that will track across ontario today and
tonight. a tightening gradient ahead of the cold front will lead to
gusty southwest winds reaching 25 to 30 knots this afternoon. post
frontal winds will remain gusty for a few hours around midnight, but
will turn more westerly. winds will continue backing through the
rest of the night becoming northwesterly by saturday morning. clouds
will remain at or above 7kft through the forecast. low level jet
will be up to around 40 knots down to 2kft tonight from 00-06z, but
at this time surface gusts are expected to remain elevated
around 20 knots which will negate a mention in the taf.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 401 am est fri feb 27 2026

discussion...

clear skies are observed across much of se michigan early this
morning, with pockets of cloud being triggered by moist ascent along
the elevated frontal slope. will see this batch of clouds depart
into ontario through the early morning. seasonable warmth expected
today as the low level wind field organizes out of the southwest,
drawing h8 temperatures above 0 c by this afternoon. well mixed
profiles develop under plenty of solar insolation to capitalize on
this warmer airmass aloft, boosting temperatures into the 50s across
all of se michigan.

low pressure tracks across ontario today and tonight, sending a
strong cold front across the area overnight. early impacts of this
will be felt late afternoon-evening locally as pre-frontal low level
jet intensifies to 60+ knots. arrival of the jet this evening
reduces mixing potential as the boundary layer decouples, so only
looking at a few hour window of breezy conditions around sunset
tonight. southwest gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible. despite a
strong fgen signature with this fropa, dry low levels look to keep
precipitation chances to a minimum. a few of the hi-res models (i.e.
arw) generate scattered showers toward the thumb where a slightly
deeper cloud-layer allows weak elevated instability (< 100 j/kg
mucape) to develop. temperatures in the 50s ensure all rain if
precipitation is even able to develop.

a much colder airmass spills into northern lower michigan behind the
front, dropping h8 temperatures to nearly -20 degrees near the
mackinac straits. southern half of the state sees the front stall
overhead, with a 10 degree gradient from the ohio border to the
northern saginaw valley. this leads to a difference in daytime highs
saturday from the mid 40s to upper 20s, respectively. it is this
stalled gradient that leads to our next round of accumulating snow
potential saturday night into sunday. approaching low backs low
level winds to the southwest, causing the gradient to tighten and
inducing a frontogenetic snowband that advects into se michigan
saturday evening. models struggling to come to a consensus on where
the band sets up exactly, but have shifted north in the latest model
runs. main change with this update was to add pops and snowfall
accumulations to the tri cities and thumb. outgoing snow
accumulation forecast is for a general 1 to 2 inches, but with the
caveat that where banding sets up totals could approach advisory
levels. banding potential is supported by steep mid level lapse
rates (near 7 c/km), a strong fgen signature, and deep dendritic
growth layer potential.

nose of a 140 knot upper level jet then pushes the deformation axis
out by sunday morning, which brings the core of the thermal trough
overhead. temperatures sunday will thus be the coldest of the period
with daytime highs generally holding in the 20s. high pressure then
builds into the region early next week, and will steer several
southern stream systems through the ohio valley. still variance in
the ensemble envelope whether these systems clip southern portions
of the forecast area monday-tuesday as the baroclinic zone gets
shoved south. otherwise, temperatures moderate early next week as
low level winds become southerly and warm advection returns to the
great lakes.

marine...

the weak northern great lakes system departs early this morning
allowing for a brief relaxation in southwesterly winds. these winds
then restrengthen through the day as strong low pressure tracks into
northern ontario. despite 45-55kt winds developing aloft during the
day, milder airmass greatly limits overlake mixing capping potential
peak wind gusts near 30kts. an arctic cold front follows tonight
ushering in a colder airmass as well as supporting a 5-8hr window
for northwesterly gales over the northern third of lake huron. there
remains some potential for a 2-3 hour period immediately following
the frontal passage for gusts to reach the lower 40kt range. areas
of freezing spray, including some heavy freezing spray in the
northern waters, are also likely tonight into saturday morning.
gradient weakens fairly rapidly through the day saturday dropping
winds sub 30kts with sub 20kt flow developing sunday as strong high
pressure builds across the central great lakes.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 9 am est saturday for
lhz361-362.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...mv
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.