Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
818
fxus61 kcle 081106
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
706 am edt mon jun 8 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning this
afternoon and continuing into the weekend. highest chances for
precipitation will be tuesday and thursday afternoon.

2) summertime heat and humidity enter the region with peak heat
index values approaching 100 degrees by mid-week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure exits to the east today as shortwave aloft approaches
the region. showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and evening. there may be an isolated stronger
thunderstorm given moderate instability (800-1200 j/kg sbcape) and
weak deep-layer shear (10-20 knots), though anticipating any storms
this afternoon and evening to remain below severe limits.

coverage in showers and thunderstorms will increase by tuesday as a
warm front lifts across the region during the day. moderate
instability (1000-1500 j/kg sbcape) develops with increased deep-
layer shear (20-30 knots). the atmosphere will remain moist as pwats
climb to 2 inches and any thunderstorm that develops will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall. will keep an eye on any flooding
potential but most of the cwa is in need of a good wetting rain.

there will be periodic daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week despite an upper level ridge building
overhead. low confidence in coverage and timing beyond tuesday
depending on the magnitude and placement of the aforementioned
ridge. there is a non-zero chance for severe weather on thursday as
machine learning guidance shows a 15-30% probability for severe
weather across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. spc has
highlighted portions just to the west of the cle cwa in their
extended (days 4-8) severe outlook for thursday (june 11).

key message 2...
anticipate a period of above normal temperatures with hot and humid
conditions through the end of the week. summertime temperatures with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be coupled with
dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. heat indices will also be
on the rise through the week with peak heat index values approaching
100f wednesday and thursday. limited overnight relief as overnight
lows will settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s. early season heat is
oftentimes more dangerous and can pose a greater risk for heat-
related illness. stay hydrated and take frequent breaks out of the
sun and in cooled locations!

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
the aviation forecast for the area is tricky as the atmosphere
becomes a bit unsettled around the 00z tuesday time frame and
expecting to see isolated convection for the second half of the
taf. tried to time a couple of early onset prob30 groups, but
way too sporadic for prevailing or even tempo groups. that said,
expect towering cumulus during this time frame, and showers and
storms at the terminal cannot be completely ruled out.
otherwise, vfr on the front end with winds becoming southerly
around 10kts. at cle, through 18z tuesday, expect southerly
winds to become gusty 15-25kts and increased convection chances.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early tuesday through friday.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds 10-20kts today become offshore tonight 10-15kts with
wave heights 1-2ft today becoming less than a foot in the nearshore
zones tonight into tuesday. tuesday night into wednesday, winds
become southwesterly 10-15kts and remain there through thursday.
wave heights nearshore less than 2ft through that period. showers
and storm possible activity possible beginning tonight through
tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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034
fxus63 kiwx 081215
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
815 am edt mon jun 8 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity on the increase through thursday, with
highs in the mid-upper 80s and 90s and lows in the 60s, low-
mid 70s. heat indices on wednesday and thursday will be around
100 degrees.

- daily chances (generally 40-80 percent) for showers and
storms this week. spc has portions of our area in a marginal
risk for severe weather late wednesday afternoon and wednesday
night, with damaging winds the main threat. severe weather is
also possible on thursday. confidence is low to medium.

- lower chances (20-50 percent) for showers and storms continue
through the weekend, with temps cooling into the low to mid
80s by sunday and decreasing humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 455 am edt mon jun 8 2026

in general, we`ll have increasing heat and humidity through
thursday, along with the better chances(40-80 percent)for
precipitation. highs will be in the mid-upper 80s and low-mid 90s
wed/thu, with heat indices nearing 100 degrees. convective activity
could limit the high temps more than what is forecast, but either
way it will be pretty uncomfortable outside. prepare accordingly!

dry air at the surface overnight kept precipitation chances to a
minimum and confined to the southwestern portion of the cwa (near
white county, in). a the moment, there is no precipitation in our
area as the better moisture transport/advection is to our west in
the chicago area...hence the ongoing convection there as of this
writing.

spc has a portion of our forecast area in a marginal risk for strong-
severe storms on day 3 (wednesday into thu am). the main threat with
this period would be damaging winds. suspect the threat will be
confined to very late afternoon/early eve (west near lake mi) and
spreading eastward through the overnight. the area within the
marginal is approximately along/north of us 24--especially
along/west of i 69 (even further west is better). primary threat
would be damaging winds, maybe some large hail depending on the
storm mode. heavy rain and frequent lightning are always concerns as
well. confidence is lower for this as the time of arrival could end
up being around/after 8 pm edt (vs late afternoon), which is
typically less supportive of a severe environment. however, we do
have mid level lapse rates around 7c/km a few areas of 8c/km
depending on the model), which could favor the stronger/severe
threat.

thursday afternoon into thursday night looks to be more favorable
given stronger upper level dynamics and a surface cold front moving
into a hot, humid, unstable environment. mid level lapse rates
continue to be once again around 7c/km with a few closer to
8c/km. confidence is medium for now, with spc carrying much of
our area in the day 5 outlook period with 15 percent probability
(no risk assigned, just a probability at that range). all
hazards are on the table with this system.

friday into the weekend will be slightly cooler and less humid, with
highs in the low-mid 80s by sunday. chances (20-50 percent) for
showers and thunderstorms persist each day, with the driest day
probably friday (20-25 percent) and wettest on sunday 30-50 percent).

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 757 am edt mon jun 8 2026

vfr conditions to start the period, with brief dips to mvfr/ifr
this afternoon and evening as showers and storms move through
the terminals. more persistent mvfr to ifr conditions towards
the end of the period as a system moves through the area.
ceilings could drop towards the 400-600 ft level, but for now
only have them dropping to 700 ft for now.

regarding shower/thunderstorm activity, timing/specific location
continues to be difficult to pin down, but handled with prob30s
until convection begins to develop on radar. for now have most
activity from 19z-21z start time, and persisting into the
overnight hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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240
fxus63 kdtx 080958
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
558 am edt mon jun 8 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures today.

- showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow will pose a locally
heavy rainfall threat.

- wednesday and thursday will see hot and humid conditions along with
additional thunderstorm chances.

&&

.aviation...

lingering influence of high pressure, now over quebec, ensures
another day of light southeast winds and dry weather. a pattern
shift emerges late tonight into tuesday with the development of low
pressure that tracks from southern iowa into wisconsin. rapid
moisture transport early tuesday morning will draw the first band of
showers, possibly a few decaying thunderstorms, into the airspace
after ~06z. this will also cause ceilings to lower to low vfr/mvfr
by daybreak. weak instability in the morning limits confidence in
thunder, so opted for broad shower coverage with this taf issuance.
thunder potential then increases early tuesday afternoon with the
arrival of the surface warm front and subsequent destabilization.

d21/dtw convection...there is a low chance for thunderstorms late
tonight-early tuesday morning as a moisture-rich airmass rotates
into the region. lead wave of possible convection reaches dtw around
05z-09z, although with decaying intensity and an uncertain amount of
instability to work with. low thunder chances persist through
roughly 16z, then increasing into the afternoon as instability
improves.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet this evening becoming high by tuesday
morning.


* low for thunderstorms 05z through 16z tuesday. medium after 16z
tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am edt mon jun 8 2026

discussion...

surface high pressure slides through the eastern great lakes today
with the high amplitude ridge to follow. dry conditions are expected
to hold throughout the bulk of the daylight hours while still under
the influence of the high pressure. an increase in mean thickness
today will lead to a bump in afternoon high temperatures this
afternoon into the mid and upper 80s for most of the area.

a lower amplitude wave will be lifting into the midwest being drawn
northward by the larger trough over the canadian rockies. the
increasing low level jet flow with this approaching wave will lead
to moisture transport of rich moisture environment with ties to the
gulf into michigan tonight and tomorrow. initial sign of this
moisture will be with increasing cloud cover and pops creeping into
southwest portions of the cwa late this afternoon. greater pops look
to hold off until after 8 pm this evening as scattered activity
arrives with the lead ascent. likely showers and scattered
thunderstorms expected during the day tuesday supported by larger
scale ascent with the wave moving overhead and increasing diurnal
instability. pwats are expected to climb to around 2.00 inches,
which will be well above climatological norms and ranking around the
99th percentile, while surface dewpoints climb to the mid/upper 60s
to low 70s. forecast soundings continue to indicate tall skinny cape
profiles, weak cloud layer winds, and warm cloud depth. the result
will be convection that will pose a locally heavy rainfall threat
given the impressive moisture that will available along with the
slower storm motion. the overall severe threat will remain low given
the weak shear profiles, but isolated strong winds will remain
possible given the potential for water loaded downbursts.

return flow becomes established wednesday east of troughing
extending across the northern plains into the upper midwest. this
will lead to strong low level warm advection that will send 850 mb
temperatures to around 20c. forecast will continue to highlight the
mid to late week heat and humidity. nbm continues to be on the
higher side of guidance, but airmass will be supportive of
temperatures well into the 80s and possibly low 90s as surface
dewpoints hold in the 60s to low 70s. this would put heat indices
that will approach 100 degrees if the higher temperatures look to
verify. the higher temperature outcome will be dependent on the
convective potential and associated cloud cover both wednesday and
thursday. stronger southwest flow with increasing bulk shear and
moderately strong instability elevates the severe weather potential
both wednesday and thursday/thursday night.

marine...

high pressure will center over new england this morning which will
back wind direction from east to southeast. winds will remain light
with dry weather expected for most of the day. a weak low pressure
system will arrive late tonight into tomorrow which will bring
scattered to numerous showers and a chance for some embedded
thunderstorms. there will be some additional chances for rain
showers and thunderstorms wednesday into thursday. the overall
pressure gradient will stay weak, holding wind gusts aob 20 knots
through the middle of the week, with some localized stronger gusts
possible with any thunderstorms.

hydrology...

a moisture rich environment will pose a locally heavy rainfall
threat late tonight through tuesday. majority of ensemble members
put qpf amounts within 0.25" to 0.75", but the environment will be
supportive of pockets of 1.00" to 2.00" rainfall amounts or greater.
thus, highly variable amounts are expected across southeast
michigan. convective rainfall rates will have potential to reach
1.00" or greater at times, especially during the day tuesday. low
confidence exists at this time as to where these heavier pockets of
rainfall would fall, but the environment will certainly support
isolated flash flooding potential especially if it occurs over any
urban areas or flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...aa
marine.......am
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.