Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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557
fxus61 kcle 181127
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
727 am edt mon may 18 2026

.what has changed...
trended high temperatures up a degree or two for today and tuesday
in central and eastern portions of the area. the marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms has been expanded across northern ohio into
northwest pennsylvania for this evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) the hottest temperatures of the year arrive today and continue on
tuesday. the heat will break behind a cold front on wednesday with
below normal temperatures continuing into thursday.

2) a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in northwest
ohio and across the northern counties this afternoon and evening.
the potential for severe thunderstorms returns on tuesday afternoon
with greater coverage of storms expected. damaging wind gusts to
60 mph and hail are the primary concerns with severe
thunderstorms.

3) unsettled conditions are expected heading into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the local area resides in the warm sector today with a ridge
over the appalachians and 500mb heights of 585dm. a
southwesterly pressure gradient supports warm advection with
925mb temperatures reaching 24-25c. winds are expected to gust
to 20-25 mph in the east and up to 30 mph in the west which will
help to mix out dewpoints and keep humidity/heat index values
in check. the high temperature forecast was raised by 1-3
degrees from north central ohio into northwest pennsylvania for
this afternoon with highs expected in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees and heat index values only running about a degree
higher. with that said, this is the first near 90 degree day of
the season and people will likely feel the effects of heat more
easily. several climate sites are forecast to be within a degree
or two of record values(see the climate section below). the
temperature forecast for tuesday is a little more tricky as we
have to contend with increasing cloud cover and higher chances
of precipitation during the afternoon. dewpoints also trend up
closer to the mid 60s so humidity will be more noticeable. due
to the increasing clouds and moisture, temperatures will likely
top out a couple degrees lower than monday but heat index will
be virtually the same.

the brief bout of near record highs will abruptly end on wednesday
behind a strong cold front. 850mb temperatures fall by 11-12c in 24
hours with a northwesterly flow off the lake. high temperatures are
forecast to be 20-25 degrees cooler by wednesday and remain cool on
thursday. temperatures do gradually trend warmer heading into the
holiday weekend but will be impacted by chances for precipitation.

key message 2...
convection is ongoing this morning from the upper peninsula of
michigan extending southwest to iowa ahead of low pressure
located over western wisconsin. a moist and unstable airmass
advances eastward into the central great lakes today as the
trough over the great basin shifts east into the plains states.
leading shortwave energy across northern wisconsin tends to
weaken while another shortwave is expected to move across
indiana and western ohio later today. while we start the day
capped, mixed layer cape of 800-1100 may sneak into northwest
ohio late this afternoon ahead of the shortwave which comes with
increasing shear values. the better lift skirts lake erie and
the lakeshore counties into this evening and may have to monitor
for a few stronger storms moving east from toledo towards erie
in the 4-9 pm window. while activity is generally expected to
dissipate for the overnight hours, a moist and weakly unstable
airmass resides overhead tonight so kept a low pop in the
forecast through tuesday morning.

on tuesday surface low pressure is forecast to move northeast across
lake superior with a cold front extending south through the central
great lakes. a pre-frontal trough with moderate instability moves
into nw ohio during the afternoon on tuesday. expecting good
coverage of showers and thunderstorms to develop west of the
i-71 corridor during the afternoon with around 2000 j/kg of ml
cape and 20-30 knots of bulk shear. thunderstorms will continue
eastward through the evening. this looks to present a scattered
wind and hail threat for tuesday afternoon and evening from
about 2-10 pm. storm relative helicity values are slightly
higher in the northeast with good veering of the flow with
height and the storm prediction center has included a low end
tornado threat for that area.

rain will linger along the cold front tuesday night into early
wednesday with a drying trend through the day on wednesday as broad
high pressure expands south of lake erie.

key message 3...
confidence in pattern evolution is low heading into
the upcoming holiday weekend. models depict southwesterly flow and
moisture advection later friday into saturday ahead of a trough
approaching from the plains and a ridge along the east coast. this
will likely result in an unsettled pattern with periods of showers
and thunderstorms. timing is difficult this far out but could see
the first round of precipitation friday night into saturday then
additional precipitation possible later in the day on sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
mainly vfr expected for the taf period but with some convective
potential. convection will likely develop to the west this
afternoon and spread towards tol and fdy early this evening
before weakening. have a window of -shra with a tempo for tsra
with gusty winds and more significant restrictions at tol and
fdy early this evening. it is uncertain how far east
thunderstorms will get before dissipating, so included a prob30
as far east as cle and mfd for lower confidence potential. once
thunderstorms dissipate this evening, a decaying batch of
lighter rain showers may continue east-northeast for a few more
hours. outside of convective potential, afternoon cumulus will
likely produce a sct sky around 040-050 at times today.

winds are generally 5-10kt out of the south early this morning.
winds will shift south-southwest and increase to 12-18kt with
gusts to around 25kt late this morning into this afternoon.
winds lose their gustiness tonight. there is low-level wind
shear potential tonight beneath a 40kt low-level jet,
especially across northwest oh. for now included llws tonight
for tol and fdy where the strongest jet will be oriented. the
low-level jet is marginally strong and timing of the surface
decoupling is uncertain, so didn`t include farther east yet.

outlook...non-vfr likely at times in showers/thunderstorms
tuesday into wednesday. non-vfr possible in showers on friday.

&&

.marine...
south winds are slightly elevated at 10-15kt early this morning
and will continue today. gusts up to 25kt are possible in the
nearshore waters west of cleveland this afternoon. thunderstorms
may reach western lake erie this evening, and could pack brief
wind gusts over 35kt before dissipating while tracking east.
otherwise, southerly winds will remain slightly elevated at
10-15kt tonight into tuesday. winds increase a bit further to
15-20kt tuesday afternoon, with gusts potentially up to 30kt in
the nearshore waters west of cleveland. small craft headlines
remain possible for tuesday. there is additional thunderstorm
potential spreading from west to east tuesday afternoon and
evening along and ahead of a cold front, again with potential
for storms over the lake to pack strong wind gusts over 35kt.

winds whip around to the north late tuesday night into
wednesday behind the cold front, and gradually shift more
northeasterly wednesday into thursday and more easterly for
friday. these winds are currently forecast to be around 15kt
which would bring choppiness, but there is a chance winds trend
up closer to 20kt thursday into friday, which could warrant
some small craft/beach hazards headlines.

&&

.climate...
high temperatures today and tuesday will approach record values.
the following are the records for may 18 and 19 at local climate
sites.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 181554
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1154 am edt mon may 18 2026

.key messages...

- severe storms are likely today between 12 pm to around 6 pm
edt. damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main
threats. low but non-zero risk for large hail and an isolated
tornado.

- severe storms are anticipated again tuesday afternoon and
evening, with all hazards possible.

- warm and humid through tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. highs
only in the 60s wednesday and thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1014 am edt mon may 18 2026

main focus this forecast period is on the severe potential for
today and on tuesday. for today, seems the one limiting factor
for today`s storms will be the available shear, with values of
bulk shear is around 20 to 30 kts, this should keep
organization of storms minimal and current convective allowing
guidance and thinking points to a more linear feature moving
northeastward into the area over the next couple of hours from
central il. a plume of dew points in the mid 60s is pushing
northeastward ahead of the convection currently pushing across
central il. surface based cape values will run about 2000 to
2500 j/kg over the cwa. with environmental profiles drier near
the surface and a moist plume maxing out around 850 mb this
creates an inverted-v sounding which is indicative of gusty
outflows/winds with thunderstorms this is further illustrated
with downdraft cape values around 1000 j/kg. storm relative
helicity values look to remain below the 100 m2/s2 threshold but
there is the possibility for an isolated tornado or two. this
first batch of storms will move through after noon edt and push
through the area into this evening til around the 8 pm edt
timeframe. moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany these
storms with precipitable water value sitting around 1.70 inches.
of course, the storm motion speed will be important as if the
line moves through quicker that will limit the rainfall amounts
but either way looks like we should get a pretty good slug of
rain with today`s event as trailing stratiform will bring some
moderate steady rainfall behind the initial line of
thunderstorms as it pushes eastward through the area. storm
totals over the next two days looks to see some areas seeing
close to an inch of new rainfall.


a break in the action takes place tonight into the overnight
period before the better looking set up arrives tomorrow in the
form of a cold front associated with a low pressure circulation
centered over northern wi. sb cape values will be around
1500-2500 j/kg, surface dew points will get into the upper 60s
with a few locations seeing lower 70s, bulk shear values 30-40
kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and helicity
values of 100-200 m2/s2. at this time it looks as if all
threats will be on the table with the better helicity and shear
values associated with the close proximity of the frontal
boundary that will push eastward through the area. the exact
timing is still a bit hazy but current indications have the
frontal boundary approaching the western portions of our cwa
around 1 pm edt and exiting the area by early morning wednesday.
spc currently has our entire area in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms for tuesday. heavy to moderate rainfall will once
again be possible with the thunderstorms and as stated earlier
that around 1 inch of new rainfall will be possible with these
two batches of storms and locally heavier amounts if the
residence times of thunderstorms linger.

in the wake of the cold front a more zonal flow develops over
the region on wednesday and cooler and drier conditions will
arrive. highs on wednesday will only get into the 60s which is
about a 20 degree drop from the 80s today and tuesday. upper
level ridging begins to push into the region by thursday and
will start to see a gradual increase in temperatures into the
weekend. highs friday and saturday will be in the 70s. sunday
into the beginning of next week highs will return int 80s.
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also
increase over the weekend and at this time the best chances will
be friday afternoon and evening with a trough pushing through
the area but periods of showers/t-storms will be possible each
day into next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1149 am edt mon may 18 2026

primarily weather concern is an incoming squall line from the
west. observation stations have had episodes of g30kt, with at
least one unofficial report of 58mph gust toward central il.
timing was adjusted to tsra to align with the latest storm
motion. behind this line, dry for the overnight hours unless
stratiform rain back builds over kfwa (low confidence, but will
monitor). additional tsra tuesday, especially at kfwa, but just
beyond this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 181548
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1148 am edt mon may 18 2026

.key messages...

- warm and humid conditions exist today and tuesday. this brings the
risk for severe weather each day, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.

- cooler and drier conditions expected wednesday and thursday.

&&

.update...

the setup for severe thunderstorms remains favorable for se mi this
afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts. instability trends are certainly on track as full morning sun
has already lifted temperatures into the lower 80s all areas with a
few mid 80s reported leading up to the noon hour. the 12z dtx
sounding is also capped around 750 mb, enough to allow buildup of
but easily eroded by the inbound mcv. model mlcape forecasts up
around 2000 j/kg in href mean and rap projections are then within
reach by mid afternoon to establish a receptive downstream
environment for the ongoing convective complex as it moves ne into
the area. the system is already demonstrating benefits of the locally
enhanced wind shear profile supplied by the parent mcv resulting in
a mature linear convective mode, however this is where the most
uncertainty lies in terms of downstream persistence. model
projections really struggle to maintain 0-6 km bulk shear above 25
knots which suggests the system enters se mi near full strength but
is open to gusting out at some point while crossing se mi and exiting
into lake huron and ontario by early evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 500 am edt mon may 18 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through the morning hours as southwest
winds strengthen. breezy conditions expected by late this morning
through the afternoon with 25 to 30 knot gusts. a broken line of rain
and thunderstorms is then expected to take shape this afternoon to
the early evening with main timing between 19z and 01z. mvfr to
possible ifr conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. once the
line passes, a period of clearing in lower clouds will develop before
lower scattered clouds may build back in toward sunrise tomorrow.

d21/dtw convection... a broken line of rain and thunderstorms is
expected between 20z and 01z. period of mvfr to possible ifr
conditions will accompany the thunderstorms.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms this afternoon.

* low for ceilings aob 5000ft through this morning. moderate with
thunderstorms this afternoon.

prev discussion...
issued at 307 am edt mon may 18 2026

discussion...

warm frontal boundary responsible for the prolific hail producing
supercellular activity across portions of the saginaw valley and
northern thumb late sunday will finally ease north of the region
this morning as higher magnitude warmth increases influence within
deepening southerly flow. benign conditions ensured thru late
morning as stability holds under modest capping. influx of higher
quality moisture will commence during this time, establishing a
notable moisture gradient from west to east by early afternoon
/dewpoint of mid 60s west to upper 50s east/. this affords a moderate
level of diurnal boundary layer destabilization for at least western
sections. given an afternoon temperature of middle 80s, mlcape
projection of upwards of 1500-2000 j/kg will peak across the saginaw
valley and down through the highway 23 corridor. this leaves a
receptive downstream environment for potential reorganization/
expansion of any mcv governed remnant nocturnal convective activity
spilling downstream. a fairly strong model consensus exists on this
scenario, targeting lower michigan for a mid-late afternoon increase
in coverage. a broader threat window locally between 19z and 01z with
dependence on pace of the mcv. the background wind field remains
modest, but subject to a localized meaningful increase both across
the lower levels and with greater depth as the feature moves through.
supportive environment to offer a risk of both large hail and
damaging wind gusts, with greater overall potential with westward
extent. a focused area of higher srh does materialize as low level
flow backs briefly with a slight shift in the pressure gradient
orientation. therefore, cannot completely discount the possibility
for a more organized, rotating updraft to present a brief, isolated
tornado threat. outside of the convective window, forecast continues
to highlight gusty southerly conditions reaching 30 to 35 mph at
times today.

the seasonably warm and humid conditions will exist again tuesday
ahead of a cold front. a more muddled early day picture in terms of
both cloud cover and precipitation chances, as a portion of the
model solution space suggest possible activity prior to 18z owing to
some combination of the ongoing moisture advection and remnant
midwest convection leftover from tonight. degree and pace of
destabilization certainly still subject to change. assumption for at
least a weakly unstable environment timed favorably with an evening
cold frontal passage will present an opportunity for deeper updrafts
to organize within a sufficient background deep layer wind field
along the frontal zone. the spc day 2 outlook maintains a slight
risk designation to highlight the associated strong wind and large
hail threat for the late tuesday period. warm sector environment
will again become diurnally gusty, with winds reaching 30 to 35 mph
from the south at times.

notably cooler post-frontal environment arrives wednesday. this will
occur with the backdrop of increasing low to mid level ridging,
ensuring a stretch of dry and stable conditions lasting into
thursday. low level thermal trough marked by 850 mb temperatures of
lower single digits, lending to below average readings during this
time. coldest conditions thursday morning as the surface high
centers locally - lows dipping into the 30s in some locations. dry
conditions likely to hold under a modest warming trend friday, as
the next system organizes upstream. this system will introduce the
next chance of rain friday night into saturday.

marine...

a warm front releases north across lake huron this morning, with
southerly winds expanding across all local waters. strong low level
jet winds will struggle to mix down over the open waters where cool
water temperatures maintain stable over-lake conditions. gusty
southwest flow will thus be confined to the nearshore waters, aided
by warmer water temperatures and land influence. frequent gusts
today and tuesday are expected to hold between 25 and 30 knots, but
an isolated gust to 35 knots over saginaw bay cannot be entirely
ruled out. small craft advisories are in effect for today and will
be needed tuesday as well. more localized wind/wave impacts arrive
with thunderstorm activity this afternoon-evening, and again tuesday
when a cold front sweeps through the area. there is potential for
some of these storms to be strong to severe with all modes of severe
weather in play. the cold front comes through tuesday night,
followed by high pressure filling in mid-week to support a quieter
and more seasonable late may pattern.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

update.......bt
aviation.....aa
discussion...mr
marine.......mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.