Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
374
fxus61 kcle 131833
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
233 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) chances for showers and thunderstorms return overnight and through
friday south of/near the 30 corridor.

2) showers and thunderstorms will return saturday night through
sunday with a low pressure system and cold front. heavy rain is
likely saturday night, with a few stronger storms possible
sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as the stationary front continues to sag south, a ridge will
begin to build through the remainder of today and into the
weekend. an embedded shortwave within this pattern will promote
moisture transport into the area tonight and into friday. the
latest model runs show the best chance for precipitation along
and south of the 30 corridor, with the highest pops in marion,
morrow, and knox counties friday morning. there is a chance for
an embedded thunderstorm or two, though mainly rain showers are
expected. additional rainfall amounts should remain below one-
half inch.

key message 2...
the next period for unsettled weather will be saturday night
through sunday as a low pressure system moves east through the
great lakes, extending a cold front across the area sunday
night. a period of heavy rain is becoming more likely saturday
night as a highly-anoamlous moist air mass, characterized by
pwats exceeding 2.0 inches, enters the area. the latest
guidance appears to be trending the strong to severe storm
threat further south and southeast of the area as any
redevelopment in the afternoon will likely focus along the
residual boundary from the overnight convection.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
non-vfr conditions across the area this afternoon should
gradually become at least low end vfr for this evening with
ceilings between 3-6kft and visibilities improving. as another
round of rain pushes southeast across portions of the area
tonight, reduced conditions to low end mvfr to ifr are likely.
ceilings should generally remain above 1kft, however with the
potential of fog and the shower potential, all terminals should
see a reduction in visibilities to 2-4sm starting around 05z
friday through 15z friday. as daytime heating increases friday
morning, conditions should gradually improve once again,
although confidence in terminals rebounding to vfr by the end of
this taf period remains fairly low.

winds will remain light and variable through much of the period
before gradually increasing to 5-10 knots from the east-
northeast friday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
saturday afternoon into sunday.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions are expected to persist across lake
erie into this weekend as the area remains on the northern
fringe of a stalled boundary across the ohio valley. this will
keep winds variable and under 10 knots into saturday. on
saturday, the aforementioned boundary will begin to lift north
as a warm front which will be followed by a cold front on sunday
into monday. shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
beginning saturday and persist into sunday. southerly winds on
saturday will keep the highest waves along the northern
lakeshore before winds back behind the cold front sunday and
become northwesterly. this shift may result in waves building
1-3 feet across the central and eastern basins, however given
the magnitude of the low, not expecting any marine headlines at
this point. high pressure returns for the start of next week and
calm conditions persist.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn/belpulsi
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
267
fxus63 kiwx 131912
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
312 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

.key messages...

- this afternoon light to moderate rain showers expected with a
few embedded thunderstorms for most areas this afternoon. the
better chances for thunderstorms will be the far southern
portions of the area including white and cass counties in
indiana. a few of the storms may become strong but severe
storms are not expected at this time.

- more widespread, heavy rain is possible late tonight into
early friday morning, especially south of us-30 where a lot of
rain has already fallen. a flood watch remains in effect there
through friday morning.

- more chances for rain/storms are possible over the weekend
but the potential for heavy rain and flooding will be lower.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 224 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

a mcs has again developed over central ia this morning and has
been making its way eastward. the stronger convective
circulation has been pushing southeastward along the stubborn
quasi-stationary boundary that has hung around the area the last
several days and current radar imagery shows the stronger
storms pushing just south of our cwa along this boundary over
the next couple of hours. the rest of the area will see a weaker
convective band with light to moderate rainfall push in from the
west with a few embedded thunderstorms possible but storms are
expected to remain weak with the better instability and moisture
further south.

later tonight the main concern becomes the potential for heavy
rainfall with the boundary slightly shifting northward and
become orientated northwest to southeast across the center of
the cwa once again. a northward surge of moisture and forcing
along the boundary will envelop the area and bring a resurgence
of a band of convective thunderstorms and rainfall across the
area. with the general westerly to easterly flow training of
cells will bring moderate to heavy rainfall for areas directly
underneath where the band sets up and this includes areas where
recent rains in the previous days have made soils quite moist.
current guidance does show this band setting up from the us-30
corridor and southward however the models have had a horrendous
time with this "ring of fire" pattern in place and is likely to
continue to struggle with such a stagnant pattern in place.
therefore, confidence is low in the exact placement of the band
but does seem to make sense that the band will set up along the
boundary and more northern areas are more stable.

starting to sound like a broken record but for the longer term
there is still considerable uncertainty with this very stagnant
pattern that models struggle resolving since this is not a
normal pattern and the models tend to be more progressive which
is the norm. but all indications look to be a continued zonal
pattern with periods of showers and thunderstorms parading over
the area, however there is some hints into the ridge over the
south trying to push northward this weekend which may push the
rainfall activity further northward which would be welcome as
our southern parts of our cwa and areas over ind cwa have been
drenched and can hardly take any more.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 133 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

a complex of thunderstorms persists this afternoon over central
illinois. satellite and radar trends indicate the strongest
portion of this storm will pass well south of ksbn, yet
lightning on the northern end lends confidence to include tsra.
some maintenance of this complex appears favorable by the time
it would reach kfwa, though on its current trajectory, the
strongest part of the line appears on track to pass south of
kfwa, yet lightning will still be a concern.

tonight offers little certainty as redevelopment of heavy rain
is favored in the vicinity of ksbn. given the current complex
of storms, i suspect the axis of redevelopment will be south of
the terminal, but spilling over to kfwa. stratus is favored to
develop outside of any heavy rainfall, so that too offers
uncertainty.

leaning heavily on ensemble guidance, have offered a period of
-shra at kfwa where confidence is slightly higher; in contrast
to a tempo for overnight -shra at ksbn. mvfr to ifr ceilings
could be a problem overnight depending where rain sets up.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through friday morning for inz012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-116-203-216.
oh...flood watch through friday morning for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
388
fxus63 kdtx 131937
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
337 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

.key messages...

- chance for drizzle or light rain this evening, mainly along or
south of m59.

- showers and thunderstorms return late saturday into sunday.

&&

.discussion...

upstream mcs now entering indiana will continue to progress east
through the evening. convective activity will stay locked to the
cape gradient which resides across central indiana and trails down
into southwest ohio. however, the associated stratiform region which
extends through southern lake michigan will attempt to work across
the southern portion of the cwa through the evening. a modest dry
10kft dry layer in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere will work
to erode northern periphery of the ongoing stratiform rain, but
there looks to be enough saturation to overcome this layer closer to
the mi/oh border. the chance for this drizzle or light rain will
extend north to m59, but the more favorable probabilities are hedged
to the south. some isolated rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
noting elevated cape value aob 500 j/kg, but overall cape density is
poor with a weak and elevated cap around 20 kft. any prolonged
activity is expected to hold just along or south of the state line,
mainly across the ohio valley.

limited forcing under diffuse high pressure brings mostly dry
conditions tomorrow. the exception for very low end chances will
again reside closer to the mi/oh border if the northern periphery of
precipitation from low-level convergence encroaches into the cwa.
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances enter on saturday with
the best chances centered saturday evening to sunday morning.
initial shower and storm chances will be tied to lift along a warm
front that will push through in the late afternoon to evening hours.
w-e re-orientation of the llj will rapidly enhance moisture
advection, increasing pw values aoa 2" by saturday evening with 850mb dew
points nearing 18c. any subtle forcing will be capable of producing
showers or storms, but any more widespread activity would likely be
tied to maintenance and progression of a mcs originated from the
plains. passage of this system and area of convectively enhanced low
pressure will work to push a weak cold front across the great lakes
on monday. this will afford a window for drier conditions monday-
tuesday along with slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the low
80s.

&&

.marine...

high pressure continues to build across the great lakes and ontario
leading to generally quiet conditions across the region. the high
will be slowly shifting eastward eventually reaching the eastern
lakes by saturday morning. the stalled frontal boundary is still
lingering to the south and will be the focus for another round of
storms tonight, but it looks like most of the local area would avoid
the convection. once the high pushes off to the east saturday, the
next low will be developing to the west and should pass through the
area in the evening and overnight. winds will be light and variable
tonight before becoming northeasterly friday and increasing to 10 to
20 knots across southern lake huron. winds then turn southerly late
saturday and increase to around 20 knots ahead of a cold front
saturday night. winds then shift to the northwest on sunday behind
the front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1243 pm edt thu aug 13 2026

aviation...

a diffuse surface pattern covers the western great lakes today,
between the ohio valley front and northern ontario high pressure.
light wind and high moisture content in the boundary layer supported
early morning ifr fog and stratus in se mi that dissipated on
schedule before noon. mixed mid and high clouds dominate coverage for
the rest of today as they stream eastward from the midwest
thunderstorm complex. pockets of cumulus occur in between where
daytime heating can build sufficiently. vfr is the bottom line this
afternoon and evening while monitoring for any shower/storm
development that has a low chance to occur on the north flank of the
ongoing storm complex favored to move into the ohio valley.

there is not much change to the larger scale weather pattern late
tonight and early friday, although some more subtle changes suggest
easing into a return of fog and low clouds. consensus of the latest
forecast data indicates greater coverage of mid and high clouds
toward dtw while surface td drops below 60 on slightly greater ne
wind into mbs. this favors patchy and brief mvfr restrictions in
place of greater ifr coverage from the past couple of mornings.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated at dtw tonight and
friday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon through tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......drk
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.