Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
718 pm edt sun may 3 2026

.what has changed...
increasing pops in coverage tonight in mid level isentropic lift
that will become more pronounced over the eastern half of the cwa,
but in coverage only.

&&

.key messages...
1) prefrontal pva brings a chance for storms monday ahead of
the cold front that drops into the cwa from the northwest on
tuesday.

2) dominant upper level troughing reclaims its hold on the great lakes
and brings temperatures back below normal for the end of the week
and into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
pva aloft in the 500mb flow will utilize the mlcape available
monday for sparking convection across the cwa. this will occur as
higher dewpoints advect in from the west and low level jet enters
the region with a 50kt streak 00z tuesday. for now, the day 2
convective outlook has the western half of the cwa in the marginal
risk category for the severe potential. as the cold front approaches
the region from the northwest, waves of low pressure will develop
along the cold front. this will result in a reduced forward speed of
the boundary as it moves into the cwa and a longer residence time
heading into midweek. with multiple rounds of convection now
expected in association with this frontal boundary, tuesday has a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for much of the cwa with a now
consistent influx of low level moisture in southwesterly flow. for
the duration of the event into late tuesday, should easily see 1-2
inches of rain for portions of the cwa, especially where the first
day convection occurs as this storm total will take into account the
monday into monday night activity.

key message 2...
system finally exits late tuesday night with more cold air advection
dominating the picture and a broad upper level trough returning to
the great lakes. temperatures from monday will drop 15-20f area wide
back to below normal values, the trend of the region since the last
week of april. the trailing upper level trough axis gives another
chance for showers in the cold pool thursday, and then again with
more pva aloft for early friday. drying for the first part of the
weekend. will possibly be looking at more frost/freeze headlines for
the thursday night time frame with lows in the 30s. temperatures
slowly moderate back into the 60s primarily for saturday.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
aloft, w`erly to nw`erly flow and embedded shortwave ridges and
troughs affect our region through 00z/tues. variable amounts of
mainly mid/upper-level cloudiness will precede each shortwave
trough axis. at the surface, a ridge continues to exit slowly
e`ward. our regional surface winds trend s`erly to sw`erly
around 10 to 20 knots through the taf period. these winds will
gust up to 20 to 30 knots at times, especially before 01z/mon
and between ~14z/mon and ~23z/mon. note: diurnal cumuliform
clouds with bases near 7kft agl are expected to dissipate by
~00:30z/mon, but then redevelop with bases near 5kft agl after
~14z/mon.

mainly dry weather and vfr are expected through the taf period.
however, a sw`erly low-level jet of about 35 to 45 knots at/near
925 mb should develop over our region between ~04z/mon and
~12z/mon and yield low-level wind shear at all taf sites in
northern oh and nw pa. moist ascent associated with this low-level
jet will cause scattered stratocumuli with bases near 6kft agl
to blossom over our region. these stratocumuli may produce
isolated rain showers with brief mvfr, but confidence in these
showers impacting any of our taf sites remains low. after
~20z/mon, isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs aloft and
attendant surface trough axes should enter northern oh from the
wsw and develop over northern oh and perhaps nw pa. brief mvfr
to lifr and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50
knots are expected with these showers and especially storms.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected monday
night through this friday. occasional thunderstorms are forecast,
especially monday night and again tuesday afternoon through
evening.

&&

.marine...
west-southwest winds of 10-20kt are ongoing this afternoon, with
wind gusts of 25-30kt across the nearshore waters. winds will
briefly lull early this evening, before sustained winds increase
to 15-25kt across the entire lake overnight tonight as a
stronger low-level jet and tighter pressure gradient move across
the lake. waves of 1-3/2-4 feet in the nearshore waters and 4-7
feet in the open waters are expected through early monday. small
craft advisories will be out for all nearshore waters through 8
am monday to account for the brisk southwest winds with the full
afternoon forecast update. winds decrease to under 20kt during
the day monday, though increase a bit again monday night into
early tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. another round
of small craft advisories may be needed. a cold front moves
south across the lake on tuesday, with winds whipping around to
the north behind it and subsiding into wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...jaszka
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
700 pm edt sun may 3 2026

.key messages...

- brief warmup and turning breezy today into monday.

- there is a chance (20-40%) for scattered showers this
afternoon.

- chances for scattered showers and storms (30-50%) increase
mid afternoon monday into monday night. a few storms could
become strong to severe (wind/hail).

- turing cooler with periods of rain tuesday into tuesday night.

- cool midweek through next weekend with occasional chances for
rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 121 pm edt sun may 3 2026

a weak shortwave moving southeastward in conjunction with a cold
front allows an area of showers to swing eastward through the area
this afternoon. given the dry airmass, rap time-sections indicate a
fairly dry airmass in the low levels of the atmosphere and this
probably keeps the majority of the morning rain as just virga.
better low level moisture arrives during the afternoon and this
helps to increase confidence that at least a couple of hours of rain
will be possible. temperatures don`t fall as far tonight,despite dew
points in the upper 20s and low 30s, because the temperature profile
is much warmer (finally above freezing) than we had it both weekend
mornings (below freezing).

we`ll have been on a warming trend for temperatures despite today`s
cold front allowing our highs in the 50s on saturday to reach the
70s on monday. dew points also trend higher with the passage of the
theta-e plume this evening and another push of it into the area
monday. even still, models restrict sfc dew points to the 50s and
850 mb dew points to the single digits. the normally moist biased
nam is indicating that closer to the arriving cold front, there
could be some better moisture (closer to 60f in sfc dew points and
around 10c in 850 mb dew points, but boy is it discontinuous). there
is still the warm front-like feature that tries to push into the
area later in the afternoon that may help bring better moisture to
the area as well. overall, the forcing appears rather diffuse and
weak, but the nam tries to bring some better large scale ascent in
by the evening (which may be convectively enhanced). there are
pockets of effective shear between 30 and 40 kts to work with, which
may be on the strong side of shear to get dry microbursts out of the
inverted-v profiles that show up on the hrrr soundings. again, the
normally moist-biased nam has much more moisture in those profiles.
this would at least point to some sort of wind threat. it also
appears that the mid level lapse rates mix out overhead lessening a
hail threat, but it`s not completely removed given shear and
instability. tornado is certainly a lesser threat, but could exist
with enough lift along and south of the approaching warm front later
in the day (south of us-24 area). the low level jet remains south of
us-24 during the overnight and the nam indicates there are areas of
low level moisture flux continuing to move through which would point
to maybe a flood threat lingering into the overnight.

the cold front is slow to move southeastward tuesday and is
continuing to be flagged by the nbm (which uses old data by about 6
to 18 hrs) as well as an ensemble of medium range guidance as
allowing 1 in or more rainfall during the 24 hours prior to 6 to 12z
tuesday night mainly south of us-24. there are signs that weak lows
may try to move along the slow moving front during this time. wpc
has an ero of mrgl for this period. the front is out of the area
later tuesday night as slight height rises exist in the mid levels
and high pressure noses in. a cooler trend exists with the highs
with 50s becoming more common tuesday through thursday.

height falls commence wednesday night and into thursday as the base
of the upper trough swings through, but we are much drier then and
model qpf output is rather meager. this also fits with the upper
cooler/drying northwest flow and there not being a theta-e plume to
work with. better warming and dew points arrive for friday although
we`re still in that upper nw flow. a weaker wave moves through in
the trough, but this would seem to provide a slightly better
opportunity. highs trend warmer from friday into the weekend with a
return to highs in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 656 pm edt sun may 3 2026

light returns are showing up on radar this evening but dry air
and high cloud bases are preventing any rain from making it to
the ground. there could still be a few gusts to 20 kts in the
next few hours but the strongest of the wind gusts (41kt at kfwa
earlier this afternoon) have diminished. breezy conditions
persist overnight with southwesterly winds sustained around 10
kts. winds quickly ramp up in the warm sector tomorrow as a warm
front lifts through ahead of an approaching cold front;
southwesterly winds may gust as high as 30 kts tomorrow
afternoon and evening, especially south of us 24. after 18z
tomorrow, isolated to scattered storms will be possible with
gusty winds and small hail. vfr conditions should prevail
through much of the taf forecast period, but within any storms,
mvfr ceilings and visibilities will be likely.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt sun may 3 2026

.key messages...

- mild and breezy monday. a chance of thunderstorms late monday and
monday night.

- showers expected tuesday.

- much colder temperatures tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.aviation...

sw wind gusting in the mid 20 to mid 30 knot range during the
afternoon diminishes to a sustained component less than 20 knots
tonight. the wind pattern is rooted in the warm sector of low
pressure centered on northern ontario which has a cold front
trailing southward into the midwest. there are also a substantial
mid level vfr cloud field and a few showers within this warm sector
while the cold front supports and more intense band of showers and a
few thunderstorms entering northern lower mi at forecast issuance.
this activity struggles to reach the mbs area during the evening
after losing daytime instability and as the front begins a
dissipation phase after midnight. the end result is a clearing trend
late tonight and monday morning with the exception of a stray mvfr
pocket of stratocu shortly after sunrise. conditions are otherwise
vfr under cirrus streamers and a few high based cumulus monday
afternoon. sw wind returns to gusts in 20 knot range into monday
evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 pm edt sun may 3 2026

discussion...

warm front passed to the north overnight allowing for a couple days
of warm advection with gusty southwesterly winds. a shortwave trough
passing over the region this afternoon/evening will bring an
opportunity for some light showers, but better chances will occur
north and south of the region as we lie in between the compact vort
max to the north and a narrow ribbon of vorticity streaming through
the ohio valley. there is a weak connection between the two features
with some mid level theta e advection leading to a period of clouds
through the day. there remains a slight chance of precipitation with
the moisture plume as it advances through, though dry air aloft and
at the surface will limit the coverage and intensity to any showers
that develop.

additional warming on monday as thermal ridge slides through
bringing 850mb temps up to 10c into the region. warm air advection
and good deal of sun will lead to highs into the low to mid 70s.
weather starts to take a turn in the evening and overnight as the
next longwave trough dropping into the midwest pushes a cold front
toward lake mi. the approaching trough will cause the mid level
height field overhead to tilt from zonal flow to southwest flow
drawing a shortwave northeastward through the ohio valley and
clipping far se lower mi. this wave will pull an unstable airmass
northward around 00z with mucape around 1500 j/kg. there will be
good shear around 40 knots and strong lapse rates as well. hires
models are starting to suggest a cluster of strong storms breaking
the cap and lifting up through the region south of i94. these storms
would be capable of strong winds and large hail. stronger llj then
lifts north just ahead of the surface cold front stretching from
saginaw bay to southern lake mi which is expected to flare up with
activity as convergence increases with good shear in place. some
elevated instability will be present atop a stable bl so severe
chances will be minimized.

the front will be very close to exiting mi by tuesday morning before
stalling. another shortwave will lift up along the front through the
afternoon resulting in a long duration rainfall occuring through
most of the day...for some locations. looks to be a fairly sharp
cutoff to the nw as dry air surges in behind the front. latest
guidance has come down a bit in total qpf from over an inch to now
0.5-0.75 inch.

troughing hold through the latter half of the week bringing a return
to the below normal, 50 degree high temps through that stretch.
there will be additional opportunities for rain as well as a few
weak waves advancing through the area.

marine...

breezy southwest flow continues through the day producing gusts on
the order of 20 to 25 knots. small craft advisories remain in effect
through tonight, with the only change being an extension of small
craft advisory duration across western lake erie and lake st. clair
as elevated gust potential lingers overnight. isolated to scattered
showers will continue across lake huron through tonight. after a
lull in gusts during the mid to late morning hours tomorrow, breezy
conditions will return later in the afternoon and evening with gust
potential reaching again into the 20-25 knots range, favored across
the saginaw bay and lake st. clair to lake erie. renewed small craft
advisories may be needed. otherwise a cold front will move through
tomorrow evening into early tuesday morning. a line of showers and
possible embedded thunderstorms will be likely along the front.
ahead of the front focused across lake st. clair and lake erie, some
stronger isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible in the afternoon and evening. any stronger storm will be
capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots. wind direction veers
to the northwest by tuesday in the wake of the front.

hydrology...

showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the
region monday night and persist into the day tuesday along a slow
moving cold front. latest model guidance and probabilistic guidance
suggests high probabilities for total rainfall between a quarter inch
and three quarters inch. there is low to moderate confidence that
rainfall totals will reach an inch generally across metro
detroit/ann arbor and points south, with low confidence totals will
exceed an inch and a half. while initially convective, the rain is
forecast to transition toward a more steady light to moderate rain
on tuesday. this will keep hourly rainfall rates generally light.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......am
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.