Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
067
fxus61 kcle 170735
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
335 am edt wed jun 17 2026

.what has changed...
the enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather for today has
been expanded east to include locations along and west of the
i-75 corridor. otherwise, the forecast largely remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across much of
the area this evening into tonight. all severe weather hazards
and heavy rainfall are possible.

3) gusty non-thunderstorm winds are likely this evening through
thursday.

4) below normal temperatures and periodic showers are possible
thursday through early next week. best chance of rain will be
sunday into monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an unseasonably deep 980mb low pressure system will move east
across the great lakes region today through early thursday. the
low will lift a warm front across the local area early this
evening, followed by a cold front tonight into early thursday
morning. showers and thunderstorms will likely develop due to
isentropic lift ahead of the warm front late this afternoon into
this evening with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms
moving east into the area later this evening and into the
overnight hours. there`s still some uncertainty with timing,
especially with the second round later this evening, but it
appears that the second round will move into the toledo area
after 8-9 pm and into the cleveland area after midnight.

while a few strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be completely
ruled out with the first round of convection, the better chance
of severe weather will arrive ahead of the cold front later
tonight. the environment will be conducive for severe
thunderstorms with an unseasonable 60 to 70 knot llj over the
local area and dew points climbing into the 60s. the impressive
wind field will result in ample wind shear as these storms move
into the area, although instability will be pretty limited at
this point. in an environment like this, however, it won`t take
much instability for organized convection to maintain itself.
guidance still supports a broken line of supercells congealing
into more of a qlcs at some point tonight, though there`s some
uncertainty in where/when that will happen. either way, storms
will likely weaken as they encounter slightly more stable air in
the eastern half of the area late tonight.

the best chance of severe weather will be across the western
half of the area. the enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been
expanded east to the i-75 corridor and now includes the western
part of the toledo metro area, bowling green, and findlay.
meanwhile, a slight risk (level 2 of 5) stretches east to just
east of i-77 with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) spanning from
just east of i-77 into far western pa. all severe weather
hazards will be on the table given the amount of shear in place,
however locations generally west of i-71 have the greatest
potential of seeing significant damaging wind gusts in addition
to tornadoes and large hail.

behind the warm front, pwat values will increase to 1.75 to 2
inches, which is right around the daily maximum. the unusually
high pwat values in combination with "tall, skinny cape" will
prime the atmosphere for heavy to torrential rainfall rates this
evening into tonight. flow may be nearly parallel to the
frontal boundary which may result in some training, however
storm motion will be quite fast which will help limit residence
time over one location. there`s quite a spread in the highest
axes of qpf amongst guidance members which results in
uncertainty in the locations of the greatest flooding risk.
while there will probably be localized flooding (and possibly
flash flooding) somewhere in the area, confidence in the
location is too low to warrant a flood watch at this time.

key message 2...
strong wind gusts are likely outside of thunderstorms tonight
through much of thursday. there will probably be a period of
wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph with the best llj ahead of the cold
front tonight. locally higher gusts are possible, but it`s
possible that these gusts are largely convective. forecast
soundings also suggest that the strong wind gusts could be
isolated at times due to inefficient vertical mixing. if these
strong gusts end up materializing outside of thunderstorms, a
wind advisory may be needed for tonight. additional gusty winds
are likely behind the front during the day thursday with
sustained westerly winds to 30 mph and gusts to 35 to 45 mph
likely areawide. this would be the second opportunity for a wind
advisory. as mentioned in the previous discussion, events like
this typically happen during a time of year when leaves are not
on trees. leafed out trees will be more vulnerable to strong
winds and sustain damage more easily, which could result in
more power outages in comparison to similar similar gusts during
the cold season.

key message 3...
cold air advection on the back side of the low will result in
scattered rain showers downwind from lake erie through
thursday. from there, dry weather is expected before rain
chances return sunday afternoon through monday. temperatures
will generally remain a little bit below normal over the next
several days with highs in the 70s expected. lows will drop into
the 50s thursday night through saturday night.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to drift east out
of the area this morning with kyng the only terminal still
impacted. there is a potential for some patchy fog to develop in
areas where it rained this past evening, although confidence is
very low at this point of where this may occur. have included br
at cak which already has reduced visibilities, but will continue
to monitor any expansion from there. any fog that does develop
will quickly dissipate near sunrise and rebound to vfr as
southwest winds begin to increase from the southwest at 10-12
knots.

as a strong cold front approaches from the east wednesday
evening, winds will quickly increase ahead of the boundary to be
more southerly at 12-15 knots, initially gusting up to 30 knots
before 00z across western terminals. these winds accompanied by
widespread showers and storms will spread east through the end
of the taf period. gusts up to 40 knots are possible at all
terminals with the potential for stronger gusts within
thunderstorms. in addition, very heavy rain will likely reduce
visibilities to non-vfr at terminals after 00z but given some
timing uncertainty, opted to cap those visibilities at 4sm for
most spots. some of the thunderstorms across the area may become
severe, with the highest confidence across western terminals.
will continue to monitor trends in the forecast to hone in more
specifically. in addition to these diminished aviation
conditions, an extremely strong llj of 60-70 knots will push
over the area resulting in very strong llws. opted to handle the
strong winds with the gusts, but given the anomalous nature of
a jet like this in summer, wanted to note it here.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr will
continue through friday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure lingering over the area into this afternoon will keep
fairly pleasant marine conditions present across lake erie with
southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots. given offshore flow, waves will
remain 1-2 feet into the evening.

very hazardous marine conditions arrive late this evening and will
stick around through thursday as a deepening low pressure system
moves into the region. associated with this low, a strong cold front
is expected to push east across lake erie beginning near 00z
thursday, bringing strong winds across the basin. initial winds
ahead of the cold front will be 20 to 25 knots from the south-
southeast before backing to become more westerly by thursday
morning. some winds may be as high as 30 knots at times, with
locally higher still possible in any convection that develops. as
the winds gain a more westerly component, wave heights will quickly
increase to 4 to 6 feet in the western basin lakeshore and 6 to 8
feet across the central and eastern lakeshore. locally higher waves
up to 10 feet are possible at times, especially in the open waters.
these conditions will be dangerous to small crafts and will also
result in a high risk of rip currents. swimming and boating will be
dangerous on thursday. in addition to the hazardous conditions,
strong southwest winds, there is also a potential for water levels
in the western basin to fall below the critical mark for safe
navigation tonight into thursday. to highlight these concerns, both
a small craft advisory and beach hazards statement have been issued
and we will continue to monitor water levels in coming forecasts.
conditions will improve across lake erie on friday with northwest
winds of 10 to 20 knots expected, but wave heights only climbing to
1 to 4 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from this evening through thursday
evening for ohz003-007-009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from this evening through thursday
evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
thursday for lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
408
fxus63 kiwx 170708
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
308 am edt wed jun 17 2026

.key messages...

- two rounds of storms are expected today (1-5pm edt and
5pm-12am edt). there is a low chance of severe weather with
the first round and a much higher chance with the second
round.

- all hazards will be possible across the entire area with round
2 including strong tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and
flooding. a flood watch is in effect for areas along and north
of us-24.

- quiet weather is expected thursday through saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 308 am edt wed jun 17 2026

all focus is on potential severe weather/flooding threat later
today. the stage is set for widespread and/or significant severe
weather but unfortunately there are a few possible failure points
that reduce confidence. a seasonably strong 130+ kt upper jet will
move into the southern great lakes later today, carving out an
impressive pv anomaly (by june standards) over michigan.
corresponding tightening of the low-mid level gradient occurs as
well with winds speeds all the way from 850 to 500mb solidly at or
above 75 kts. a strong surge of warm/moist air advection arrives by
midday and this will bring the first round of storms roughly 16-21z.
there will be a severe risk for this first round but it will depend
on exact timing. some cam`s show an earlier arrival (16-18z) with
convection outpacing the better forcing for ascent and limiting
diurnal instability but some cam`s suggest an arrival closer to 19-
21z which would feature better moisture convergence/instability and
mid/upper level support. damaging winds would be the main concern
but isolated hail and tornadoes can`t be ruled out with this round
either.

main severe weather focus remains on round 2 this evening as surface
low/cold front cross the area. hard to remember a time with a more
favorable hodograph for significant tornadoes in this area with
backed surface wind and nearly 70 kt flow a mere 1 km up. 0-1km
helicity values could easily exceed 500 m2/s2. further, lcl`s may be
as low as 500m per most forecast soundings. instability,
particularly in the low levels, will be the key feature to monitor
and will dictate the location and severity of storms. this aspect of
the forecast is lower confidence, especially in light of 00z
guidance. the better midlevel lapse rates now look to bypass us to
the south (and still only 7 c/km at best). impressive low level
moisture surge compensates for lackluster midlevel lapse rates but
some forecast soundings are looking awfully stable, particularly in
the lowest 1-3km, which would limit the severe threat. however, as
we know around here, it doesn`t take much instability at all to
generate tornadoes given impressive kinematics, low lcl`s, strong
synoptic support, and a boundary in the vicinity. this will be a day
of closely monitoring the mesoscale environment and much will depend
on the exact timing and evolution of round 1. while some failure
points exist, it is important to remain vigilant given the potential
for strong tornadoes. also, while the highest tornado probabilities
remain south of us-30 and west of i-69 where better instability
resides, the warm front location near the michigan border (and
perhaps even further north) will need to be watched very closely as
better helicity exists there and the tornado threat could be just as
high or higher if any minor instability develops there. timing
appears to be roughly 21-04z. in addition to the tornado threat,
will also have to watch potential for wake low development
which could bring damaging winds behind the line of storms into
the late evening. regardless of wake low development, it will be
breezy into the overnight and on thursday. hail threat is a bit
lower given poor lapse rates but any organized supercell will
still be capable of generating some large hail.

also of concern is the possibility of heavy rain/flooding given the
potential for multiple rounds of convection training east-west
across the area today. pw values reach or exceed 2 inches with a
very moist profile throughout the column. warm cloud layers and mbe
velocities are on the marginal side for a significant flooding
threat and storm motions will be fast. however, still see potential
for a quick 2-3 inches in some locations (particularly in our nw)
and this will be capable of at least isolated pockets of flooding
and impacts. have therefore issued a flood watch for areas along and
north of us-24. (flood risk appears a bit lower south of 24).

outside of some gusty winds tomorrow, no weather concerns for
thursday-saturday. another system appears possible on sunday but
focus remained on today`s hazards.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 128 am edt wed jun 17 2026

strong mid/upper level trough and jet streak will cross the area
later today and support numerous thunderstorms. two rounds
expected, though the end of round 1 (roughly 18-22z) may push
right into the start of round 2 (roughly 22-02z), especially at
ksbn. better thunderstorm chances arrive with round 2 and
maintained a tempo here with just prob30 for round 1. brief ifr
conditions and strong/severe winds possible with these storms.
returning to vfr around 03z but gusty winds will persist through
the night.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 2 pm edt /1 pm cdt/ this afternoon through
late tonight for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>025-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight
for ohz001-002-004-005-015.
mi...flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
325
fxus63 kdtx 170530
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
130 am edt wed jun 17 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected wednesday evening
and wednesday night. heavy rainfall is likely which may lead to
localized flooding, especially in urban areas. the potential also
exists for severe weather, mainly south of i-94.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the week
and next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

dry weather expected overnight in the wake of a cold front. residual
moisture from prior day rainfall combined with clearing trends will
likely support periodic stratus development through the night.
current observations have held cloud bases ranging between ranging
between 5-8kft which will likely hold as the minimum base height.
models have trended away towards the possibility towards mvfr/ifr
stratus, however, there still remains a lower confidence window to
see this more pessimistic potential during the mid to late morning
hours, with the strongest signal favored across northern lower and
south into kmbs. cig heights to improve after sunrise with stronger
diurnal heating.

for the evening... a very strong low pressure system coupled with
impressive low and upper-level jet support brings high confidence
for widespread rain along with embedded thunderstorms. moderate to
heavy rainfall will be likely at times which may lead to some
localized flooding concerns, pending where the stronger storm
development lines up. additionally, isolated severe weather will be
possible, most favorable across kptk down to the metro terminals.

d21/dtw convection...widespread rainfall moves in by the late
afternoon to evening, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
possible around or after 00z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5kft this morning.

* moderate for thunderstorms this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm edt tue jun 16 2026

discussion...

active weather pattern the next two days with multiple rounds of
thunderstorms likely and potential for flooding rains, especially
wednesday evening.

a look at the visible satellite early this afternoon shows the
system responsible over northern wi with the attendant cold front
extending to the south while a prefrontal fgen band exists over
eastern lake mi producing showers. locally over se mi some high
based showers initiated early with the lack of a cap but little
morning cape and shear prevented much from developing. heading into
the afternoon, a 30 knot low level jet will lift ahead of the
prefrontal band while a pocket of 500mb vorticity pivots around
reaching southern mi at the same time. this mostly seems to come
together over sw mi, hence spc upgraded that region to a slight risk
while leaving part of se mi in a marginal risk. sbcape is forecast
to top out around 500 j/kg with some bulk shear around 30 knots.
we`ll have to see how upstream convection can hold together as it
approaches for increased severe chances. dry low levels showing up
in the soundings as an inverted v, supporting the higher bases
convection will also support wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph as the most
probable severe threat this afternoon mainly from 20-00z.

wednesday still garners much attention with the unseasonably strong
low driving through the region. some changes/questions of note to
the setup in terms of location of the low/occlusion which will
dictate severe chances in se mi. models still support a strong mid
level trough over mn/wi with a sub 990mb surface low under it. a
strong mid level wave will rotate through the base of the trough
across southern lake mi while a very strong 60+ knot low level jet
racing northward just ahead of the wave through il and into southern
mi just before wednesday evening (around 00z thursday). the strong
lift ahead of the surface low will cause the system to occlude and
refocus a center over southern mi or northern in. at this point,
most of the support is to push it east near the state line. a
portion of the low looks to get rotated up through the thumb, while
a potential mcs diving e-se helps drive the instability axis
southward, keeping the bulk out of se mi. strong lift with
impressive southwesterly moisture advection will bring pwats around
2 inches into se mi on the lead isentropic arm, with the low and
associated thunderstorms passing through mainly in the 21-06z
window. severe weather chances remain limited as we expect the bulk
of the instability and surface features to remain to our south. spc
day2 outlook has remained relatively unchanged focusing on the
better setup south of the border. there remains a window around 00-
04z when a narrow wedge of instability slips north through the area
which would be our best chance for severe storms. main threat will
occur mainly south of i-94 but location will be adjusted as we see
where the surface boundaries set up.

confidence in flood risk remains elevated wednesday afternoon into
the overnight. wpc day2 ero continues to include all of se mi in a
slight risk for flooding. the wealth of moisture, strong fgen and
epv, with strong deformation developing just north of the low
center, should produce a wide swath of heavy rain across portions of
se mi. highest totals should occur close to the ohio border with
decreasing amounts heading north. as we get deeper into the suite of
cams, precip totals have had a slight downward trend, possibly
owning to the shorter duration with such a fast moving system.
regardless, confidence remains fairly high for a swath of 1 to 2
inch rainfall totals, with locally higher amounts exceeding 3 inches
possible.

we remain in the broad upper level trough on thursday with the
remnant surface low from mn/wi tracking across central mi thursday
afternoon. steepening low level lapse rates look to be able to
produce a round of low topped showers early thursday. mid level
trough feature should pass to the east, ending the support for
showers overnight but could see another window of diurnally forced
showers on friday, more limited in coverage.

marine...

a low pressure system and its attendant cold front gradually work
through the central great lakes from west to east, supporting
continued showers and thunderstorms into the evening and early
overnight hours. an isolated threat for hazardous wind gusts and
large hail remains. a brief break in activity emerges during the
daylight hours wednesday as ridging aloft quickly passes through. a
secondary stronger low pressure system follows in quick succession
late wednesday into thursday. more intense convection is possible
with this system, capable of damaging winds, and to a lesser extent,
waterspouts and large hail. prevailing southwesterly gradient winds
accompanying the low climb above 25 knots, once the center
approaches lake huron late wednesday night. this eventually backs
flow northwesterly, based on the northeast trajectory of the system
across the huron basin. gusts to gales remain possible, mainly for
the southern waterways, as the strongest llj winds of 40-50 knots
pass through the lowest 3 kft. shallow mixing profiles appear to
exhibit only meager growth, maintaining uncertainty with the
potential/duration of gales. opted to forego a gale watch for lake
st. clair and western erie, but will reevaluate during the evening
update. also, cannot completely rule out gales extending into
southern lake huron, too. post-frontal winds decline a bit and
organize out of the west-northwest on thursday, remaining so through
at least saturday. additional chances exist for showers and a few
thunderstorms over the weekend as cyclonic flow persists overhead.

hydrology...

numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and
evening. most areas will receive a quarter inch or less of rainfall,
but training of storms over the same areas will lead to totals
nearing an inch. flooding is not likely today.

a seasonably strong low pressure system will then arrive late
wednesday, producing widespread rainfall with numerous heavy
thunderstorms through wednesday night. rainfall totals ranging
between 1 and 2 inches are likely for much of se mi, and isolated
areas may receive over 3 inches. most of this rainfall is expected
to occur in 6 hours or less, currently centered between 8pm and 2am.
this rainfall may pose a flash flooding threat, mainly in urban
areas, and rises on rivers and streams can be expected.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt thursday
for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt thursday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt thursday
for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
hydrology....tf/drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.