Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
634 am est wed nov 4 2026

.what has changed...
chances of rain have trended up on friday and will continue across
the snowbelt region of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania on
saturday. temperatures continue to trend cooler for saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain will spread east across the area through this evening. many
areas can expect a quarter to a half inch of rain with locally
higher amounts closer to central ohio.

2) cooler temperatures and showers will arrive behind a front on
friday and linger into saturday across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure is located over the upper midwest with a cold front extending
south through the mississippi valley. radar imagery shows a swath
of rain ahead of a deep upper level trough that will curl northeast
towards the great lakes region today. rain is forecast to reach
the i-75 corridor towards sunrise on the nose of a 45 knot low
level jet and expand east today. the deep moisture axis shifts
east with time with most areas receiving between a quarter and
half inch of rain. locally higher rain amounts are focused
towards central ohio. temperatures will be warmer in the east
today where most of the morning will be dry. looking upstream a
broken s type radar signature in indiana is starting to fall
apart as it moves northeast. fortunately there is little to no
surface based instability so this trend is expected to continue
with no hazardous weather expected. we will see southerly
winds gusting to around 30 mph in northwest ohio as the gradient
tightens and low level jet arrives. once the rain arrives fills
in the potential for stronger wind gusts will be reduced due to
stable boundary layer conditions. have included just a slight
chance of thunderstorms in portions of northwest and north
central ohio but so far not seeing any lightning upstream in
indiana.

rain will tend to exit to the east by thursday morning as the dry
slot sets up overhead. favorable mixing should help clear clouds out
and mix into drier air aloft. high temperatures are forecast to be
in the low 60s on thursday with breezy southwest winds and clearing
skies.

key message 2...
an upper level trough will dive south out of canada
on thursday and phase with the upper low over the great lakes
region. another trough will race northeast from the four corners
region on thursday night and bring a plume of deeper moisture back
towards the local area. showers will tend to expand from west to
east on friday as a cold front wraps around the south side of the
upper level low. showers will blossom across the area, especially
during the afternoon. another dry-slot does wrap into the system on
friday evening but wrap around moisture through 700mb is forecast to
return and be focused across the east half of lake erie on saturday.
temperatures on friday will be in the 50s with the highest values in
the east ahead of the front. high temperatures on saturday continue
to trend downward as we end up on the back side of the upper level
low. temperatures at 850mb will be as low as -3c on saturday morning
which should be sufficient for lake enhanced rain across the east
half of the forecast area. did not add thunder but can not rule out
a few isolated thunderstorms coming off lake erie.

precipitation is generally expected to be done by sunday with a
gradual warming trend setting up for the early part of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
today, a cold front is expected to push east across the area
which will bring widespread precipitation and the potential for
non-vfr conditions to every terminal. this morning, some showers
have already begun to impact far western terminals and are
expected to continue to spread east-northeast into this
afternoon. along with those showers, a lowering of ceilings will
occur with most terminals experiencing ceilings between 1-3kft
by this afternoon. isolated areas of ifr conditions are
possible, but the confidence in the timing and location of these
conditions is lower. near the end of the period, all showers
should shift east of the area, allowing for many terminals to
begin to rebound to vfr conditions.

winds through the period are expected to be breezy from the
south-southeast at 10-15 knots through this evening. terminals
could see periodic gusts of 20-25 knots as well with the
strongest gusts expected across the western terminals. tonight,
winds will weaken to 5-10 knots and shift to become
southwesterly.

outlook...low pressure and a cold front crossing through the
region friday into saturday bring the next potential round of
non-vfr in rain showers/low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
southerly winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the west half of
lake erie today. we could see a brief window of winds in the 20-25
knot range this evening but did not issue a small craft advisory
given the offshore flow. will let day shift take another look at
observational data before deciding if an advisory is needed.
southwesterly winds on thursday may be slightly stronger and close
to small craft advisory criteria again. a cold front pushes south
across lake erie on friday with a compact trough setting up across
the eastern great lakes. we could see a chance of both waterspouts
and a few thunderstorms on friday. a small craft advisory will
likely be needed for most of lake erie friday night into saturday.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie

11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...04
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
625 am est wed nov 4 2026

.key messages...

- rain, mainly in the morning, gradually tapers off from west to
east this afternoon.

- not as warm today but remaining somewhat breezy with wind
gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

- drying out tonight through thursday morning before lake
enhanced showers begin and persist into saturday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 214 am est wed nov 4 2026

a 1002mb low swirls over far southwest wi early this morning
while a lagging cold front bulges into western il. an area of
rain is lifting through the ohio river valley beneath 75-knot
500mb flow and a 50-knot 850-mb jet. rain today will generally
amount to 0.10- 0.25". far northwest oh might see slightly
more based on the trajectory of the heaviest returns upstream,
in an area of favorable moisture convergence aided by the
aformentioned jets. forecast soundings show little chance of
any deep low-level mixing today which will keep wind gusts in
check; primarily 20 mph to 30 mph. rain tapers off from west to
east by early afternoon as the dryslot moves overhead. cold air
advection is delayed until late in the day due to boundary-
parallel flow and will be most noticeable by thursday when with
lows in the mid- 40s and highs shy of 60 degrees (a touch mild
still for early november).

after a dry start to thursday, a secondary trough axis ripples
through in the late afternoon providing ample lift for scattered
showers. reinforcing cold air (2c at 850mb) over a 10-13c lake
michigan results in lake enhanced showers that persist into
saturday morning. (if the airmass were colder, this would be a
solid les setup.) friday and saturday are the coldest of this
forecast period as deep troughing is entrenched over the eastern
great lakes.

temperatures inch upward early next week as we lie on the cusp of a
south-central us ridge. how far east this ridge propagates is
uncertain with the prospect of a potential blocking pattern taking
shape over the interior rockies. for now, precipitation chances
appear minimal, but a shift in energetic northwest flow could flip
the script if the ridge is not as strong, bringing passing chances
for light rain.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 623 am est wed nov 4 2026

rain continues to lift through the state this morning ahead of
a cold front and low pressure system off to the west.
observations indicate rain rates are consistently light; p6sm at
several locations. in contrast, ceilings are expected to lower
to low- end mvfr over the next couple of hours based on upstream
observations and available guidance. cannot completely rule out
a brief dip to ifr with at least one few007 observation noted,
yet this seems to be an anomaly overall.

in the wake of the rain departing midday, ceilings are poised to
gradually improve toward high-end mvfr, especially at kfwa, as
drier low- level air seeps in. ksbn may remain locked into low-
end mvfr ceilings through the period due to their proximity to
the low.

a few wind gusts today near 24 knots with wind veering
to become sw through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est
thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
606 am est wed nov 4 2026

.key messages...

- mild again today with light rain showers at times.

- briefly drier early thursday before scattered showers return late
thursday-friday.

- temperatures return to normal values to end the week.

&&

.aviation...

deeper plume of moisture on pace to lift into southeast michigan
this morning. upstream observational trends confirm expectation for
a decline in cloud base as showers increase coverage with time early
today. predominant mvfr conditions by midday, with a brief interval
of ifr possible this afternoon. prevailing southerly wind turns
gusty today, peaking at 25 to 30 knots. inbound cold front will
bring a secondary window for possible shower development this
evening. some improvement in ceiling heights becomes more likely
within the post-frontal environment tonight as winds become
southeasterly. an increase in stability will bring a decline in gust
frequency and magnitude early tonight.

for dtw...showers increase in coverage with an accompanying
reduction in ceiling height late morning. lower cloud cover likely
to persist into the evening hours.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today. medium tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 319 am est wed nov 4 2026

discussion...

occluding low pressure continues to lift into the northern great
lakes shifting llj structure over the mississippi up into the
southern great lakes. connection to the gulf draws anomalous
moisture into se mi this morning as pw values push 1.5", near daily
climatological maxima, supporting widespread showers throughout the
morning into this afternoon. gusty southerly winds also accompany
this structure as diurnal mixing at least partially taps into 30-
35kt flow at 925mb resulting in wind gusts generally in the 25-30mph
though with peak potential towards 35mph. llj forcing shifts east
into ontario by the latter half of the afternoon tapering off wider
spread rain and transitioning to pockets of lingering drizzle/light
rain. secondary window for greater coverage arrives this evening as
a broken line of showers tied to the cold front cross the state.

significantly drier airmass trails this cold fropa late tonight as
the system`s dry slot works across se mi through the first half of
thursday. southwesterly winds post-frontal winds moderate the
magnitude of cold advection keeping slightly above normal
temperatures around with highs in the upper 50s to around 60. the,
by this point, closed low then sinks southeast across lake huron
latter half of thursday into friday offering another period of
scattered light showers. secondary cold front eventually sweeps
through the region friday morning bringing both a window of enhanced
shower coverage as well as briefly ushering in a seasonably average
airmass to close out the week. near to sub 0c 850mb temps result in
highs only around 50, give or take a couple degrees either side,
both friday and saturday. long range models favoring low amplitude
ridging redeveloping over the central conus by early next week which
would bring back above normal temps to se mi.

marine...

low pressure occludes over the western great lakes today,
maintaining moderate south to southeast wind across the area today.
warm air aloft maintains stability over the lakes that will limit
the higher magnitude wind from mixing down. however, gusts as high
as 25 to 30 kt are expected over the open waters of lake huron this
afternoon and evening while shorter fetch over the nearshore waters
will limit gusts to the 20 to 25 kt range there. a small craft
advisory is in effect for the thumb shoreline where wave heights are
forecast to build over 4 feet. saginaw bay, lake st. clair, and
western lake erie may see a brief period of gusts in excess of 25 kt
late afternoon, but confidence is too low for an advisory at this
time. a cold front brings light rain late in the day and into
tonight with wind veering to southwest behind the front after
sunset. the weakening low pressure meanders across the western great
lakes on thursday while deeper mixing brings southwest wind to 25 kt
across saginaw bay. a stronger cold front then tracks southward
across the region on friday. this brings gusty north and northeast
wind that shifts northwest and weakens by saturday. additional light
rain will accompany this frontal passage.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight est
tonight for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......tf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.