Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 260608
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
208 am edt thu mar 26 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track with thunderstorms, some possibly severe,
late thursday into thursday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) active weather returns on thursday as a cold front approaches the
region. thunderstorms, some expected to reach severe limits, will
move south across the forecast area late thursday into thursday
night. locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

2) high pressure behind the cold front will usher in dry, but cold,
conditions on friday. temperatures moderate through the weekend.
precipitation chances return early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry weather comes to an end on thursday. some isolated to scattered
showers, maybe some weak embedded thunderstorms, push northeast
across the local area thursday morning. however, most of the area
should remain dry through the first half of thursday with high
temperatures rising into the mid 60s to low 70s. the main show comes
late thursday into thursday night as a strong cold front pushes south
across the lower great lakes into the ohio valley region.
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold
front thursday evening. timing remains variable across hi-res
guidance with the 12z/wed forecast cycle trending a few hours later.
but anticipate convection to roughly occur from 6 pm through 2 am.
midnight.

the storm prediction center has expanded the slight risk (level 2 of
5) for severe weather further east towards the oh/pa border. a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) remains across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. all hazards will be possible in any severe
thunderstorm that develops given sufficient deep layer shear, roughly
50-60 knots, and moderate surface-based instability of ~750-1000
j/kg.

in addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out.
the entire forecast area has been highlighted as a marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) in the weather prediction center`s day 2 excessive
rainfall outlook for thursday. pwat values will reach or exceed
1.25" which is well above the 90th percentile for late march.
current qpf amounts thursday afternoon into the overnight hours
range between 1.25-1.50 inches, with locally higher amounts possible
in thunderstorms.

key message 2...
the cold front will exit to the south on friday with reinforcing
high pressure building across the region behind it. much cooler
behind the front with highs on friday in the low 40s. anticipate for
dry weather through the weekend under high pressure with
temperatures moderating into the mid 50s by sunday as the high
begins to exit to the east. unsettled weather returns early next
week as a series of upper level shortwaves move overhead. highs in
the mid 60s to upper 70s as we enter april.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
w`erly to wnw`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 06z/fri. at the surface, a high pressure
ridge continues to exit generally e`ward and s`ward before a
strong cold front sweeps sse`ward through our region between
~21z/thurs and ~02z/fri. behind the front, a strong ridge builds
from the canadian prairies and vicinity through 06z/fri. ahead
of the front, our regional surface winds trend s`erly to sw`erly
around 10 to 15 knots and are expected to gust up to 20 to 25
knots at times, especially after ~13z/thurs. note: a nocturnal
and wsw`erly low-level jet of 40 to 50 knots at/near 925 mb is
expected to result in low-level wind shear region-wide through
~12z/thurs before dissipating soon thereafter. our regional
surface winds veer quickly to nw`erly and then toward ne`erly
behind the cold front and in response to the building ridge.
these post-front winds will also be around 10 to 15 knots and
gust up to 20 to 25 knots.

primarily vfr and dry weather are expected for the time being.
however, isolated rain showers associated with subtle disturbances
aloft are expected through ~18z/thurs, but vfr are likely with
these showers. as the cold front moves through our region, a
line of heavy-rain producing and organized showers and
thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front. some storms
will likely be severe with brief/erratic surface wind gusts up
to 45 to 60 knots and damaging hail. a few tornadoes are
possible. the line of showers/storms will likely be accompanied
by brief mvfr to lifr. behind the line, widespread light to
moderate rain, low ceilings, and associated mvfr to ifr are
expected to accompany the upper-reaches of the cold front and
linger over our region through 06z/fri.

outlook...periodic rain and/or snow and non-vfr ceilings may
linger into early friday afternoon. non-vfr possible with
scattered showers and thunderstorms this monday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds 10 to 15 knots are expected tonight into
thursday afternoon with winds shifting to the north/northwest
and increasing to 10 to 20 knots behind a cold front thursday
evening through friday morning. the strongest winds and highest
waves will likely occur in the nearshore zones of the central
basin, where a small craft advisory will likely be needed.
north/northwest winds will diminish to 10 to 15 knots friday
afternoon through friday night with winds diminishing below 10
knots by early saturday morning. winds will generally be
west/southwest at 10 to 15 knots over the weekend, although
increasing offshore flow may necessitate small craft advisories
sunday night into monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...jaszka
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 260648
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
248 am edt thu mar 26 2026

.key messages...

- very warm today with highs in the 70s and 80s. a 50-60% chance
for 80 degree highs exists mainly south of us-24. cooler air
is across the area between tonight and saturday night.

- there is a 90% chance for showers and storms this evening.
storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts, large hail,
heavy rain and tornadoes. the greatest severe weather threat
is between 5pm and 12am et. drier through the weekend.

- chances for rain return midweek into the end of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 237 am edt thu mar 26 2026

very early in this forecast period, we have a wave pushes through
just south of the area, this is expected to keep showers and storms
south of us-30. instability is focused in the mid levels with 6.5 to
7.5 c/km mid level lapse rates and a few hundred joules of
mucape. surface dew points slow increase into the 50s of degrees
and 850 mb dew points reach 10c indicating somewhat of a moist
layer. pwats are 2 to 3 sds above normal at this time. effective
shear appears to trail the simulated reflectivity so small hail
could be possible with this wave as it pushes through, but
would only consider large hail if there`s better overlap between
the shear and potential storms. locally heavy rain is possible,
but given its movement am not worried about flooding.

behind this morning system, there`s some question about if we`ll get
some debris clouds to contend with. aviation guidance has stratus
around the toll road, but that appears to lift northward with as we
enter peak heating (~18z) or so. soundings indicate there is a cap,
which appears to hold for the morning into the afternoon and
probably holds on until large scale ascent can get here. the hrrr
seems to sprout areas of showers/storms as areas of a thermal
gradient push through, but the better large scale ascent waits to
arrive around 21z.

strong effective shear greater than 30 kts pairs with 1 to 2
thousand j/kg of cape to create an environment conducive to severe
thunderstorms. the eml re-establishes itself across the area during
the midday and afternoon hours, especially south of us-30 and west
of i-69. initial shear orientation is boundary-perpendicular
allowing cells to have the potential to be discrete. given helicity
values over 200 units, initial storms will be able to produce both a
tornado and, with the other severe parameters, large hail. there is
some uncertainty how long shear remains boundary-perpendicular so as
there may be a tendency for storms to congeal as shear becomes
boundary-parallel overtime, there still could be enough turning to
allow embedded vorticies within the line for more of a qlcs look.
this line continues shifting southeastward and as dew points reach
60+ degrees and 850 mb dew points surpass 10c, heavy rain will be
possible. training of storms will be possible, but it doesn`t look
mbe vectors will allow backbuilding so flooding may be less of a
factor with lower storm coverage and with the line moving southward
steadily. the line looks to vacate our area by 3 to 4z, but will
likely have some stratiform rain following on its backside. there
has been some indicate, too, that cold air could catch up to create
flurries, but the ingredients aren`t really there for an anafrontal
setup.

clouds dissipate friday afternoon as surface high pressure pushes in
behind a strong vort max, which pushes through behind the departing
cold front. highs fall back to the 40s for friday and saturday with
30s for lows thursday night and saturday night, 20s for lows friday
night.

then, for sunday and monday, a trough pushes in atop the ridge in
the west suppressing it. as a result, a warm front develops north of
the area by monday. highs reach the 70s for the next work week as
warm advection returns. strong gulf moisture advection ensues and
skies cloud up. as the warm front sags back southward with a strong
high pressure system moving into southern canada, waves of showers
and thunderstorms will become possible. the placement of this
baroclinic zone will decide where storms form. it could be just
north of our area. an attempt to push a cold front through the area
is made for the end of next week, but that could stall around our
area and cause times of rain and additional storms.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 206 am edt thu mar 26 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions at the terminals through
the period, with potential for ifr conditions late this
afternoon into the overnight hours as rain and storms along a
frontal boundary develop and sink southeastward. llws to around
40 knots persists at kfwa through the overnight thanks to a llj
moving through. showers/t-storms associated with the warm
air/moisture advection are just along/south of a line from kmcx
through kmzz and kpld. models still suggest this activity will
remain just south of kfwa as it moves e-se, but there are a few
that develop showers further north than what is currently on
radar-which could impact the terminal between 8-12z. maintained
the prob30 given lower confidence, will amend if needed. mvfr
ceilings are still possible at ksbn this morning into early
afternoon before the front moves in (1500-2500 ft per most
guidance).

otherwise, the main focus will be this afternoon (21z onward)
into the overnight hours as a cold front drops ese across the
area. winds shift n-ne behind the front through the period, with
gusts in the 25-30kt range outside of storms. showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread along the front,
especially after 22z, with a few strong-severe storms possible
at both terminals. for now have prob 30s with wind gusts up to
40-45kts and ifr vis/ceilings. activity will persist but likely
be more subdued beyond 6z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale watch from this evening through friday morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 260645
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
245 am edt thu mar 26 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and taper off in
the evening hours. there is a slight risk of severe storms along and
south of the i-94 corridor, with all hazards (wind, hail, and
tornadoes) possible.

- sharply colder air arrives tonight and friday, followed by a
steady warming trend through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.discussion...

yesterday`s late-day warm advection surge allowed temperatures to
reach into the 60-65 degree range late in the day for areas along and
west of u.s. 23, as the 00z dtx sounding revealed a 925-mb
temperature of 11c. although it remains mild this morning
(40s/50s), the air mass remains dry and stable, as surface dew points
are mostly in the 30s. the primary focus of this forecast cycle
remains the potential for severe weather today and the subsequent
cold shot behind the frontal boundary tonight/friday.

model analysis (00z nam/hrrr/regional gem): the 00z suite shows high
confidence in the timing of the pre-frontal warm sector expansion.
925 mb temperatures are progged to continue to increase to +12c to
+14c by 18z over southern areas. the 00z nam continues to be the
most aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based
instability, bringing a narrow tongue of 800-1200 j/kg sbcape into
the i-94 corridor by 21z. caveat: the 00z nam is very sensitive to
dew point recovery. if 60f dew points fail to clear the ohio
border, the severe threat will remain largely elevated, favoring hail
over wind, as elevated mucapes look to exceed 1000 j/kg as well. at
the present time, one needs to look upstream all the way back to
missouri to find any dew points close to 60f.

the hrrr (00z) is slightly more tempered with instability due to
concerns over residual cloud debris from morning isentropic lift but
compensates with more robust convective organization along the
actual cold front; however, this occurs mostly south of the state
border. the regional gem (00z) provides a middle-ground solution,
highlighting a potent 850-mb jet of 45-50 knots. this creates a high-
shear/low-cape (hslc) environment where 0-6km bulk shear values
exceed 50 knots. straight-line hodographs suggest a primary damaging
wind threat, though low-level curvature in close proximity to the
surface low center tracking along or near the michigan border could
support isolated tornadoes if cells can remain discrete before
transitioning to a linear mode.

spc day 1 continues to highlight areas along and south of i-94 in
the slight risk. hazards: damaging winds (65+ mph), large hail
(2"+), and an isolated strong tornado threat remains, with the most
likely severe window between 3:00 pm and 8:00 pm. severe chances
quickly taper off north of i-94, but there could be a marginal
severe threat as far north of m-59, but most likely just hail with
steep mid level lapse rates.

a significant surface temperature drop is expected in the evening
hours from north to south, with brisk northerly winds kicking in.
fortunately, forecast soundings show a deep dry slot immediately
following the front, which should curtail post-frontal precipitation
before a changeover to snow occurs.

on friday, expect a blustery, raw day. highs will struggle to reach
40f. low-level lapse rates will be steep under the cold core, which
could result in "rogue" cellular flurries or graupel showers,
especially in the thumb region with fetch off lake huron. however, it
appears inversion heights will be too low and the mid-level dry slot
will be too much to overcome; consequently, the forecast will remain
dry for now.

the ecmwf ensemble remains in good agreement regarding the magnitude
of the cold air mass, but the heart of the cold air does not arrive
until friday night when 850-mb temps bottom out around -13c or so,
which is roughly two standard deviations below the climatological
mean for late march. nbm temperatures appear to be too warm for
friday night, and would expect most locations to dip into the teens.

surface high pressure slides to the south on saturday, allowing for
a quick return to southwesterly flow. however, the ecmwf ensemble
members still only indicating highs in the lower 40s coming off the
cold start.

the longwave pattern shifts toward a more zonal to even slightly
ridged configuration by early next week. global ensemble (gefs/eps)
clusters and canadian gdps suggest a significant warm-up by tuesday,
with another potential deep trough developing over the western us.
this setup often signals a return to active, springlike weather for
the great lakes by the middle of next week.

&&

.marine...

high pressure influence wanes today as a fast moving upper level
wave provides a much stronger wind field aloft, and eventually drags
a low pressure system through the great lakes. the system will also
force a strong cold front through the region with thunderstorms
developing along the frontal slope. locally higher winds/waves are
possible in some storms, and a few could intensify to meet
thresholds for marine weather statements and/or special marine
warnings. all convective hazards are possible in isolated fashion
(i.e. +34 knot gusts, +0.75 inch hail, waterspouts), particularly
during the evening hours for the southern waterways (lake st. clair
and western erie). post-frontal cooling will be stark, but a
decrease in low-level northerly flow should limit nocturnal mixed-
layer gustiness to below 30 knots. modest on-shore post-frontal
gradient winds suggest high confidence in small craft advisory level
waves, which remains in effect.

&&

.hydrology...

showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop thursday
afternoon ahead of a cold front sweeping through lower michigan.
consensus model guidance qpf totals generally between 0.25 and 0.75
inches through thursday evening, with the higher totals near the
southern michigan border.

while the broader river flood potential remains low due to
relatively high infiltration capacity from a recent dry spell and
current river levels sitting at or below normal for late march,
localized issues cannot be ruled out. the primary concern is for
urban areas and small streams south of the m-59 corridor, where high-
intensity rainfall rates within embedded thunderstorms could lead to
localized ponding or rapid rises. flash flood guidance (ffg) remains
high (6-hour ffg mainly above 2.0 inches), and current rainfall
projections are well below these thresholds. no significant
hydrologic impacts are expected at the main stem river forecast
points at this time.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1152 pm edt wed mar 25 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions will persist overnight as dry and stable low level
conditions exist within a gradually warming environment south of a
frontal boundary. some intervals of high based cloud will funnel
through at times. nocturnal winds hold from the south. cold frontal
boundary remains forecast to settle southward across the area
throughout thursday. this will bring a wind shift to north-
northeast, while providing an increase in shower potential with an
accompanying expansion of lower stratus with time. forecast will
continue to highlight an initiai period of post-frontal mvfr stratus
emerging all locations between mid morning and early afternoon.
highest probability for shower activity with accompanying reduction
of visibility will occur from mid afternoon into evening hours as
the elevated frontal zone strengthens. this may afford a brief
window for thunderstorms to develop should instability prove
sufficient mainly across the detroit corridor. ongoing low level
saturation will bring increasing potential for ifr conditions to
emerge late in the

for dtw...a low probability for thunderstorms will exist mainly
between 21z and 00z. better potential will exist south of the
airport in closer proximity to higher instability near the frontal
boundary exiting into ohio.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs below 5000 ft beginning late thursday morning and
continuing into the evening.

* low for thunderstorms late thursday afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm edt friday for
lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt friday
for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
hydrology....sf
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.