Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
396
fxus61 kcle 061818
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
218 pm edt thu aug 6 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were made to the forecast. scattered
rain chances will move in from west to east later this evening.
widespread showers and thunderstorms are now expected friday
into saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple weak disturbances are expected to impact the area
through this weekend and into next week as a broad upper level
trough remains in place. near average temperatures will
continue.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak cold front is currently moving into northwest ohio this
afternoon. scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have
popped up ahead of this boundary. there is plenty of moisture
and humidity for this convection to work with. pwat values are
between 1.5 and 1.8 inch. the higher rain chances will be over
northwestern and north central ohio going into this evening and
overnight. the weak frontal boundary will be meandering over the
area on friday. widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the peak daytime heating and
gradually decrease later friday evening. localized heavy
rainfall may be possible as these storms will heave efficient
rainfall rates and slow moving. the frontal boundary will again be
around on saturday with scatttered showers and thunderstorms
expected to redevelop during the day.

there will be a brief lull in the rain chances saturday night
into sunday as that weak front washes out and weak high pressure
moves in. another cold front will track southward across the
great lakes region sunday night into monday. rain chances will
increase again sunday night and monday. this weak front will
slow down and meander around the area early next week with daily
chances for scattered showers and storms, which could produce
some heavy rainfall. temperatures will be near seasonable
average with highs in the lower to middle 80s and overnight
lows in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
tafs are currently vfr across the region and will be through the
majority of the period. there are showers moving into western
ohio that will impact tol and kfdy over the next few hours and
could bring down visibility and ceilings to mvfr. confidence is
low in showers impact terminals further east through 00z.
another round of showers/thunderstorms are possible tomorrow,
though confidence is low in the placement, timing, and actual
impacts to terminals. mvfr conditions are possible if showers to
move over the terminal.

winds will be light at 5-10 knots through the taf period and
predominantly out of the southwest. cle will have winds flip to
out of the north-northwest this afternoon due to a lake breeze
but then will become southerly again after 00z this evening.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through
monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours for
each day.

&&

.marine...
the lake will remain in the warm sector of a trough moving
through the great lakes region. light southwest winds will
continue across the lake today with low waves in offshore flow.
another weak low will enter the region for friday and saturday
and allow southwest flow to continue. a weak cold front will
swing through on saturday night, bringing brief northwest flow.
a stronger low pressure system will enter the midwest on sunday
and extend a warm front across the lake allowing southwest flow
to return. this low will get closer to the lake on monday and
enhance the southwest flow, potentially getting to 20 kts. there
is potential for brief marine headlines with this system early
next week, but there is still time to iron out details.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...23
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
054
fxus63 kiwx 061731
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
131 pm edt thu aug 6 2026

.key messages...

- widely scattered showers and storms through saturday, best
chances (30-60%) during the afternoon and early evening hours
today and friday. locally heavy rainfall possible.

- a more active pattern with several rounds of thunderstorms and
heavy rain possible sunday through the middle of next week.

- seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 131 pm edt thu aug 6 2026

synoptic pattern through friday evening features broad upper
troughing centered over the upper midwest and western great lakes,
with moist conditions embedded in weak southwest flow. this
moist and somewhat unstable environment will continue to support
periodic chances for scattered showers and isolated storms with
any small scale perturbations and outflows embedded in this
weak flow, best chances (30-60%) during the afternoon and early
evening hours today and friday. lightning and locally heavy
rainfall the main hazards with any convection given the lacking
flow/shear through the column. patchy fog remains possible again
otherwise later tonight, mainly north of the us 24 corridor in
the vicinity of a weak sfc front.

the main frontal boundary draped from the plains northeast into the
lower great great lakes will get a push southeast through the area
on saturday as the aforementioned upstream broad trough finally
releases eastward. latest timing favors locations along and east of
the interstate 69 corridor by saturday afternoon for at least a
low chance (20-30%) for convection along the boundary. drier
air briefly filters in post-frontal elsewhere on saturday, and
across the entire forecast area into saturday night with mainly
dry conditions anticipated.

the pattern aloft sunday into much of next week will transition to
low amplitude west-northwest flow on the northern periphery of a
southern conus subtropical ridge, while in the low levels a frontal
zone and associated theta-e gradient will be draped from the upper
midwest southeast into the lower great lakes and ohio valley. this
regime likely keeps the more oppressive heat off to the south with
temperatures close to where they should be for this time of year.
daily shower/storm chances were also retained during these periods
with the frontal zone in the vicinity.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 116 pm edt thu aug 6 2026

pesky, slow-moving front lingers over the area and will serve as
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. one such area is noted just south of ksbn with some
subtle expansion northward. how organized this becomes by kfwa
is somewhat uncertain, so have opted for a tempo.

as the front lingers, br remains a concern before daybreak at
ksbn. a diurnally-driven uptick in -shra is anticipated at both
sites late in the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
752
fxus63 kdtx 061844
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
244 pm edt thu aug 6 2026

.key messages...

- there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms friday,
through the weekend and into monday.

- temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend, with highs
mainly in the 80s.

&&

.discussion...

a region of showers and scattered thunderstorms across nrn indiana
is occuring within the lead ribbon of ascent tied to a remnant short
wave. this wave is forecast to lift across the toledo/western lake
erie region this evening into the overnight. this combined with
subtle upper divergence within the entrance region of an upper jet
streak will result in at least some degree of larger scale ascent
brushing across the eastern portions of the forecast area tonight. a
chance of showers/thunderstorms therefore remains warranted over
much of the area tonight. while cloud cover has held some limitation
on diurnal instability this afternoon, 0-1km ml cape around 1000
j/kg is shown by latest meso analysis. lake enchanted convergence
across the thumb and eastern sections of the forecast area remains
supportive of convective initiation late this afternoon and evening,
with a continued subtle mid level warm layer offering some
limitation on coverage.

while large scale ascent will be lacking on friday, model soundings
continue to indicate an uncapped environment. residual boundary
layer moisture will support sfc dewpoints near 70 with afternoon
temps forecast into the 80s. this will contribute increased daytime
buoyancy with various hi res models indicating sb cape ranging from
1200 to 2k j/kg. forcing via boundary layer convergence along sfc
troughs across se mi will support a chance for convection given the
lack of capping. although wet microbursts may contribute to some
strong storms, bulk shear values generally under 25 knots will limit
the severe risk.

while there remains some timing differences, there is general model
support in a progressive trough axis moving across srn mi fri
night/saturday. convective potential/coverage will have some
reliance on timing as a later timing would offer the potential for
the associated ascent to coincde with increasing diurnal instability
saturday. probabilistic guidance suggests enough timing uncertainty
to maintain blanket chance pops through the fri night/saturday
periods. the trough and associated sfc front will support a push of
drier air into se mi in its wake.

the pattern is forecast to become more favorable for repeated mcs`s
across the great lakes and/or ohio valley sunday through tuesday.
this will occur as the baroclinic zone and instability gradient sets
up across the region. fast mid level flow will favor forward
propagating mcss. however, there are indications for possible
regenerative mcss capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. at
this stage in the forecast, there is ample spread within the
probabilistic guidance with respect to qpf, timing and location.
trends will be monitored over the next couple days for both severe
weather and heavy rainfall potential.

&&

.marine...

a stalled frontal boundary located across southern michigan will
bring the continuation of showers and some thunderstorms through the
afternoon and into the evening. most of the activity will be
confined south of the northern lake huron zone, aligned where the
front resides. winds generally remain light and variable outside of
any thunderstorm activity. high pressure then builds in the wake of
the front late tonight through tomorrow, before another cold front
moves through friday into saturday. winds on friday will remain
lighter as the flow becomes more southerly. this will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms going into the
weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 104 pm edt thu aug 6 2026

aviation...

low clouds have finally dissipated/lifted into vfr across all taf
sites early this afternoon. however, a slowly increasing chance of
showers will exist the rest of the afternoon and this evening. the
greater the coverage, the better chance for mvfr cigs to redevelop
tonight. enough instability will build up this afternoon to support
isolated-scattered thunderstorms, but confidence remains low
regarding direct impacts to the terminals. southern tafs appear to
be the favored area area. with elevated low level moisture (surface
dew pts in upper 60s) and winds dropping off tonight, a similar
scenario with low clouds (ifr/mvfr) is expected late tonight, though
confidence is not high. another round or two of scattered-numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms is likely tomorrow, but timing is
uncertain, as some shower activity could develop in the morning with
a surge of moisture.

d21/dtw convection... a mid afternoon to mid evening time window
remains open for the possibility of isolated-scattered thunderstorms
in and around the dtw airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling aob 5000 ft.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......ss
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.