Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
996
fxus61 kcle 140637
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
237 am edt tue jul 14 2026

.what has changed...
heat indices trended a bit higher for northwest ohio on
wednesday, with peak heat indices exceeding 100 degrees along
and west of i-77. additional heat advisories will likely be
needed for wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat indices will peak in the mid 90s to low 100s today and
wednesday, resulting in major heatrisk conditions (level 3 of
4).

2) periodic showers and thunderstorms return friday and
continue through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a closed off mid/upper-level high with 500mb heights near 600
dam will drift southeastward into the great lakes and ohio
valley region today and tomorrow. this high will be responsible
for upcoming heat.

for today, temperatures will reach the 90s areawide, except for
near the lakeshore in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
where temperatures will be a bit cooler. heat indices will be
broadly in the mid to upper 90s, with low 100s more likely
towards northwest ohio. the heat advisory area/time is
unchanged with this forecast package.

on wednesday, temperatures will once again be in the 90s,
though maybe a couple degrees warmer in parts of northwest ohio
and central ohio. humidity is forecast to be higher,
contributing to more widespread heat indices exceeding 100,
including areas along and west of i-77. however, it could get
close to 100 for locations farther east, including the
youngstown area. additional heat advisories are expected for a
larger area on wednesday. heat indices may reach 105 heat
indices in parts of northwest ohio, so may need to consider an
extreme heat warning for that area.

the upper high will gradually flatten and dissipate over the ohio
valley through the rest of the week. a weak cold front passes
south wednesday night but it will remain hot with highs in the
low 90s, except cooler closer to lake erie in northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania. the cold front will bring slightly
lower humidity, at least compared to today and wednesday, which
will limit heat indices to the low to mid 90s.

key message 2...
an upper-level trough centered over eastern quebec will slowly
drift southwestward over the weekend as the ridge weakens
locally and becomes entrenched over the western conus. broad
northwest flow ensues in between these two features, with
several shortwave troughs expected to move southwest across the
great lakes region. at the surface, a cold front also approaches
from the north, settling across the region this weekend. this
setup will promote a stormy pattern, though uncertainty remains
due to nature of a weakly forced setup. model ensembles are
keying in on a more pronounced shortwave moving through on
saturday, with the highest pops around 60-70% saturday into
saturday night. modest mid-level flow and instability could
yield an organized severe weather threat, so this weekend is
worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will be prevalent across the region with some
scattered high clouds expected through the taf period. winds will be
light and variable through 14-16z today, then become predominately
out of the west-soutwest at 5-10 knots for the remainder of the taf
period. keri will see increased sustained winds at 10-15 knots and
gusts up to 20 knots with flow being off the lake. gusts there
should diminish after 01z tonight with sustained winds around 10
knots out of the southwest.

outlook...vfr expected through wednesday. non-vfr visibility
possible wednesday night and thursday due to wildfire smoke.
non-vfr likely starting friday night in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie will stay fairly quiet for the week as
high pressure continues to builds into the region. winds will be out
of the southwest today at around 10 knots for the central and
western basins with waves at 1-3 feet. the eastern basin open waters
will see increased winds around 15-20 knots due to the southwesterly
flow and waves building to 3-5 feet. the near shore zones across the
lake will range from around a foot with winds at 5-10 knots in the
western and central basins to 1-3 feet with winds 10-15 knots in the
eastern basin.

winds and waves will begin to subside late tonight into wednesday,
diminishing to around 10 knots and 2 feet or less by wednesday
afternoon. light and variable winds are expected across lake erie
from wednesday evening through friday night. a cold front will
approach the region from the north with winds and waves building
saturday into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-006>011-017>019.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
711
fxus63 kiwx 140635
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
235 am edt tue jul 14 2026

.key messages...

- hot conditions this week.

- chances for showers and storms return late this week into this
weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 am edt tue jul 14 2026

an impressive mid-upper level ridge, 500 mb center currently ~600
dam over southern mn and central wi, will gradually weaken and
elongate southeastward over the local area today into
wednesday. the associated subsident heat dome will fold over as
a result with peak afternoon heat indices up near 100f each
day. higher confidence in advisory level heat indices (100f
plus) still looks to be along and north of the us 24 corridor by
this afternoon with no changes made to today`s heat advisory.
additional headlines may be needed for wednesday and thursday as
well, but will take this day by day for now.

the upper ridge center may sneak just far enough south by thursday
to allow a subtle backdoor front to near the us 30 corridor by peak
heating. a few thunderstorms may develop (10-20%) near this boundary
given the weak convergence and moderate boundary layer
destabilization. where this boundary sets up and any potential cloud
debris will dictate how hot/humid we get on thursday, though current
nbm projections continue to point to another day of upper 90s to
near 100f peak afternoon heat indices.

00z guidance overall is in decent agreement in deeper gulf moisture
and a weak vort max lifting northeast into the area by friday
afternoon/evening, potentially leading to better coverage/chances
(40-60%) for scattered showers/storms in the vicinity of the
leftover frontal zone. remaining hot and humid otherwise outside of
any convection.

a low predictability pop/temp forecast sets up this weekend into
early next week as convective complexes and outflow boundaries
become problematic in the vicinity of a low level theta-e ridge.
this feature will oscillate within the southern fringes of
persistent west-northwest flow aloft. model guidance does
continue to hint a a more prominent shortwave within this
developing flow regime sometime over the weekend with a larger
scale frontal passage and convective complex.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1208 am edt tue jul 14 2026

high pressure remains in control over the next several days
with vfr conditions, little in the way of cloud cover, and light
winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005-012>015-022-023-104-116-204-216.
heat advisory from noon edt /11 am cdt/ today to 8 pm edt /7
pm cdt/ this evening for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>024-103-104-116-203-204-216.
air quality alert until midnight cdt tonight for inz103-203.
oh...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016.
mi...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
707
fxus63 kdtx 140658
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
258 am edt tue jul 14 2026

.key messages...

- peak heat expected today with highs in the upper 90s and heat
indices near or above 100 degrees. a heat advisory is in effect for
all of southeast michigan between noon and 8pm.

- hot conditions will exist again on wednesday with heat indices
approaching 100 degrees. the warmest of conditions is expected south
of i 69. a heat advisory may again be needed for portions of the
area wednesday.

- potential for showers and thunderstorms exists late in the week
into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...

clean mid to upper level ridging in place across all of the great
lakes region with nary a reflectivity return from surrounding
radars. the combination of high static stability in the lowest 10.0
kft agl and relative humidity at less than 10% at the base of the
steeper lapse rates aloft has resulted in little cloud outside of
some patches of cirrus. modeled vorticity fields and height charts
show the centroid of the ridge elongating and pivoting directly
through southeast michigan today. outstanding absolute anticyclonic
vorticity dipole set to move through indicative of strong active
subsidence. model soundings show significant additional warming
between 3.0 to 9.0 kft agl this morning with a lowering of the
capping inversion this afternoon. all dynamical processes support the
hottest day this week with highs today making a run at 100 degrees.
humidity in a relative sense will be lower, but it is important to
stress that surface dewpoints will still be in the 60s. a heat
advisory is in effect today between noon and 8pm and any duration of
heat indices reaching 105 degrees is expected to be at less than 3
hours.

forecast data supports temperatures settling into the lower to
middle 70s tonight. as a result will allow the heat advisory to fall
off this evening and make additional decisions on a day to day
basis. broad long wavelength troughing is expected to evolve over
northeastern north america by the daylight hours on wednesday with
some semblances that upper level jet axis will push into northern
portions of the lake huron basin. this change in curvature in
trajectories is usually adequate in inducing a backdoor front off
the great lakes. thetae fields show the sharp low column baroclinic
zone pushing in and stalling over northern portions of the forecast
area between 15-18z. notable item for wednesday is that with the
frontal zone in proximity, nbm guidance has surface dewpoints rising
into the lower 70s for the southern cwa, the same areas that are
still eclipsed by the compressed heat dome/ava signal. anticipating
additional heat headlines south of i 69 wednesday. nocturnal release
of the marine layer should help usher in lower dewpoints for areas
south of detroit wednesday night.

very warm conditions are expected to persist through the end of the
week with daytime temperatures ranging in the 80s in the thumb to
the lower 90s across the southwest forecast area. current thought is
that heat indices for the warmest locations should hold below 100
degrees thursday and friday.

upper level northwest flow will carve out a deeper atmospheric
frontal axis in vicinity of southeast michigan and the great lakes
this weekend. jet entrance region dynamics sliding into the upper
great lakes should lead to synoptic scale lift and precipitation
chances beginning this weekend. difficult to time onset and duration
of precipitation periods with details highly dependent on thunderstorm
complex tracking.

&&

.marine...

a hot airmass (850 mb temps in the mid-twenties) will be in place
today over the central great lakes, leading to stable low level
profiles. this should hold the max westerly winds in the 20 to 25
knot range, with the highest winds across northern third of lake
huron due to the channeling through the straits. a mainly dry
backdoor cold front dropping south tuesday night into wednesday will
allow winds to veer to the northwest behind the front, but still
only topping out around 20 knots wednesday evening over the north
half of lake huron. northwest winds at or below 20 knots holds on
thursday. the forecast on friday and saturday unravels due to
conflicting model guidance regarding the location and magnitude of a
surface low moving through the great lakes region. this has
significant impact not only on wind speeds, but also on wind
direction, along with bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1203 am edt tue jul 14 2026

aviation...

high pressure ridge and a dry airmass will lead to vfr conditions
prevailing through the taf period. minimal clouds and light winds
generally holding out of the w-sw through tuesday evening. may see
winds gust to near 20 knots across fnt and mbs tomorrow afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......sf
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.