Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
907
fxus61 kcle 121151
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
751 am edt thu mar 12 2026

.what has changed...
confidence continues to increase in the strong wind potential across
the area on friday. as a result, a high wind watch has been issued
across the entire area from early friday morning through the
evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) strong winds expected friday as robust low pressure pushes
east.

2) active pattern continues into early next week with multiple low
pressure systems expected to impact the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
late thursday into early friday, a strong low pressure system
will begin to impact the area. an associated strong llj with
winds of 60 to 70 knots will surge over the area with a push of
warm air advection. the strongest part of the jet is expected to
only move over the western portion of the area with a `weaker`
jet of 40 to 50 knots impacting the eastern portion. steepening
lapse rates throughout the day and mixing level almost to 850mb
should be adequate to mix these strong winds to the surface.
many hi-res models have wind gusts in excess of 58mph (50kts)
across western counties with slightly weaker gusts in the 45 to
50 mph across eastern counties. although the overall environment
should be conducive to bringing the strong winds to the surface,
local downslope enhancement is expected to impact the lakeshore
area across nwpa. in addition, overall precipitation chances
are minimal and should be isolated to the northern half of the
cwa, but with any showers that do occur, expect additional
mixing to bring strong gusts to the surface. moral of the story
is that it is going to be quite windy on friday.

to highlight this hazard, a high wind watch has been issued for the
entire cwa beginning late tonight/early friday and continuing into
friday evening. expect this headline to be upgraded to a
advisory and/or warning in future forecast updates.

key message #2:
the weather pattern into next week will remain very active with
multiple low pressures moving east across the area. this will
bring multiple chances of precipitation (both rain and snow) and
a roller coaster of temperatures. the first system will impact
the area on friday (see key message #1) which will bring a
chance of showers across the area. initial showers should be
primarily snow friday morning before transitioning to all rain
by friday evening.

another strong low pressure is expected to impact the area on sunday
into monday which is expected to be a bigger producer of
precipitation across the area. initially on sunday, a warm
front will lift north, ushering in warmer temperatures once
again. ahead of this boundary, a mix of rain/snow is expected
before transitioning to all rain behind the warm front. these
rain showers will persist into sunday night before transitioning
back to a rain/snow mix sunday night as a cold front pushes
east. the current storm total qpf for this entire system is
generally 0.6 to 1 inch with the highest totals expected across
the western counties. periods of heavy rain may result in
localized flooding concerns, but given the current lower levels
in rivers not expecting anything widespread at this point. will
have to continue to monitor this system for any convection
potential as well given the robust synoptic support, but
confidence is too low to add any thunder mention at this point.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
mainly vfr across the taf sites this morning, though mvfr
ceilings may linger at eri through this morning. a few isolated
to scattered snow showers may develop this afternoon and could
impact eri, so have introduced a vcsh group in this update.
apart from eri, ceilings are anticipated to remain at vfr
through the taf period, gradually lowering to 10kft, then around
5kft by early friday morning.

otherwise, the main concern for the taf period period will be
increasing south to southwest winds towards the end of the taf
period beginning early friday morning. have begun to introduce
south winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30 to 35 knots
through 11z friday. winds are expected to continue increasing
through the morning into the afternoon and expect more additions
of 40+ knot wind gusts by the next package.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered rain/snow showers on
friday with strong west to southwest winds in excess of 40
knots expected. non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow showers
saturday night into sunday. non-vfr may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on monday.

&&

.marine...
the gale watch has been upgraded to a gale warning with this
package, in addition to the issuance of a low water advisory for
the western basin of lake erie. a potent storm system will move
east through the great lakes on friday, ushering in southwest,
then west winds of 25 to 35 knots and gusts up to 50 knots
across the lake. in addition, water levels across the western
basin could fall 1 to 2 feet below low water datum. attention
then turns towards the next system towards the end of the
weekend (sunday into monday) when another system moves east
through the great lakes. confidence for southwest to west gales
continues to increase with this package. elevated westerly
winds of 25 to 30 knots could persist through tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
high wind watch from friday morning through friday evening for
ohz011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
pa...high wind watch from friday morning through friday evening for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez142>144.
gale warning from 8 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for
lez142>147-162>167.
low water advisory from 8 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for
lez142>144-162>164.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez145>149.
gale warning from noon friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez148-
149-168-169.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
821
fxus63 kiwx 121010
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
610 am edt thu mar 12 2026

.key messages...

- very windy conditions are expected on friday with gusts up to
60 mph possible.

- a very strong system is expected sunday night into monday.
thunderstorms are likely sunday night with strong winds and
accumulating snow likely on monday.

- temperatures near 70 on sunday will crash into the 20s by
monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 259 am edt thu mar 12 2026

light rain/snow associated with passing midlevel trough axis has now
fully exited our se cwa. shortwave ridging will ensure dry
conditions for today and nearly full sun with some late day, weak
waa will yield highs in the low/mid 40s (some upper 40s possible in
far sw). quiet weather will be short-lived though as powerful 170+
kt pacific jet carves out a deep, but compact midlevel low over the
great lakes. some light precip is expected later tonight into early
fri given some decent isentropic ascent. thermal profiles in our
north are marginally supportive for snow but lack of good forcing
this far south and warm ground temps will limit accumulation. the
much bigger issue will be the wind. an exceptionally tight gradient
develops between deep low over northern mi and a strong ridge of
high pressure holding over the se conus. net result is a screaming
llj possibly approaching 80kts at 850mb. the big question, as
always, is how much mixing will occur. mixing heights are not ideal
in waa prior to sunrise. they do increase after sunrise but of
course wind speeds at the top of the pbl also drop as this occurs.
some guidance members do suggest we mix into 50+ kt winds,
particularly in our se zones around 15-18z. local climatology shows
this is the ideal time and setup/wind direction to hit high wind
warning criteria (a rare event around here) but there`s still enough
spread in available guidance to introduce some uncertainty. have
therefore decided to go with a watch and allow day shift time to
make final call on any potential warnings. regardless of whether we
hit the magic 58mph threshold, it will be very windy with gusts up
to 50 mph virtually assured.

mainly quiet weather expected for sat though a developing warm front
could bring some light rain or snow to the area. chances of
measurable precip are currently less than 20% per nbm. main concern
in the long term is sunday night into monday. another strong/deep
trough swings through the great lakes with a deep surface low
passing through central mi. ahead of the system, strong waa will
push highs to near 70f on sun with thunderstorms likely sun night
along the strong cold front. instability profiles aren`t great as
best surface dewpoints and midlevel lapse rates are shunted east by
sun night but there is enough instability to at least keep an eye on
severe potential along the cold front sun night. temps then crash
into the 20s by early mon morning with wraparound/lake-enhanced snow
and very windy conditions likely. snow amounts highly uncertain at
this range but some headlines will likely be needed due to the
combination of falling snow and wind. quieter weather then expected
for the rest of next week but there will still be periodic chances
for light precip as a baroclinic zone remains draped over the
region.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 604 am edt thu mar 12 2026

a dry but breezy day is ahead. skies are clear with vfr
conditions expected to prevail until about 03-06z tonight. as
high pressure builds across the mid mississippi and ohio river
valleys today, a tightening pressure graident will develop.
expect westerly winds will increase after 15z this morning,
with gusts as high as 20-25 kts by the afternoon and into the
evening. there may be a brief lull in winds this evening for a
few hours after sunset before winds quickly ramp up as a low
pressure system passes across lower michigan. i am uncertain on
just how quickly clouds and winds will increase tonight but
there should be light rain ongoing by the end of the taf period.
i have kept this out of the tafs for now to let the incoming day
shift handle the quick ramp up in winds and clouds tonight
ascertainty increases on when exactly that will occur. i
believe vfr conditions will persist as we should be on the
southern fringes of the system passing through lower michigan
but can`t rule out mvfr ceilings and visibilities in any heavier
showers.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 pm edt friday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
974
fxus63 kdtx 121109
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
709 am edt thu mar 12 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snow is likely overnight into friday morning, with 1
to 3 inches forecast north of m-59.

- a high wind watch is in effect friday with potential for southwest
wind gusts as high as 50 to 55 mph.

- another round of accumulating snow is likely saturday night into
early sunday. thunderstorms are then possible sunday night with
strong winds late sunday into monday.

- much colder monday through wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s
and lows in the teens to potentially single digits.

&&

.aviation...

deep dry air and residual subsidence in the 3.5 to 8.0 kft agl will
lead to vfr conditions today. gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25
knots. low pressure tracking across the northern great lakes will
lead to light snow activity after 07-8z tonight. heaviest snow with
ifr visibility restrictions after 10z

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 354 am edt thu mar 12 2026

discussion...

thermal trough takes brief residence today with temperatures
currently in the 20s forecast to rebound into the 30s and lower 40s
this afternoon. a dry column will support a good amount of sunshine
today, though lake moisture advecting through within cyclonic flow
supports a diurnal flare-up of high-based cumulus. steep lapse rates
and deep mixing result in a 20 to 25 mph breeze which holds wind
chills in the 20s and 30s.

an energetic 170 kt upper jet working into the pnw this morning will
drive the next period of active weather late tonight into friday. a
compact and vigorous shortwave at the nose of this jet and
subsequent ageostrophic response will produce a powerful clipper
that tracks across northern mi during the day friday. sharp exit
region ascent precedes the system in a brief burst of snow expected
to occur over a ~4-6 hr period mainly between 2am and 10am. surface
wet bulb temps at onset will be in the mid to upper 20s, then rise
to the mid 30s through the morning as higher temps and dew points
arrive from the southwest. this allows for accumulating snowfall
overnight which transitions to melting snow later in the morning.
slrs near 12:1 result from the impressive lift, which is forecast to
produce 1-3 inch accumulation north of m-59. highest confidence in 3
inch amounts, with about 20-30% chance to see 4 inches, exists in
northern bay/midland/huron counties and considered these areas for a
winter weather advisory, but decided to let the next shift assess
morning model data for higher confidence. south of m-59, 0
accumulation to a wet 1 inch is expected before melting ensues.
additional rain/snow showers are possible the rest of the day but
with accumulation unlikely.

11.12z naefs/ecmwf ensemble mslp mean deepens the low to ~988mb as
it tracks across lake michigan friday morning. this is near the
0.5th percentile for this time of year, and will note that 12.00z
deterministic runs generally depict a slightly stronger system. the
resulting gradient will bring strong wind through the day friday.
initially from the south as the 50-65kt llj passes overhead during
the morning, wind will veer around to west as the low reaches lake
huron in the afternoon. there is still an appreciable amount of
model spread wrt wind magnitude at the surface, driven by placement
of the llj core, variable stability in the warm sector during the
morning, and depth of moisture/stratus that works through during the
afternoon which will affect mixing heights and lapse rates. do have
enough confidence at this stage to issue a high wind watch for all
of the area, with current guidance supportive of a high end advisory
but with room for headline adjustment in later forecast packages as
needed. the going forecast will call for wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph
with a morning peak associated with the passing llj, and then a
secondary peak during deepest mixing in the afternoon. highest
confidence in the higher gusts will be south of i-94 where the
gradient is maximized and low-level moisture may be less of a
limiting factor.

the next 170 kt upper jet streak arrives over the pnw late saturday,
this one digging more meridionally and driving a trough down to the
gulf coast late this weekend. this highly dynamic wave kicks off
deep cyclogenesis over the corn belt which spreads a band of
elevated warm frontal snow across the great lakes saturday night
into early sunday. several inches of accumulation will be likely
before the elevated forcing lifts north, possibly with a brief
transition to wintry mix as a warm nose arrives midday. the latest
nbm advertises 50-100% probability for 2+" for areas north of i-94
by 00z mon. also of note is 60% probability for 6+" in the saginaw
valley, which will be positioned tenuously close to the system`s
heavy deformation axis based on current guidance. confidence is
increasing for the surface low center to track across lower mi
sunday night, suggesting brief residence time within the warm sector
and potential for thunderstorms overnight. gusty winds and snow
showers ensue monday into tuesday as much colder air is dragged in.

marine...

northwest flow continues in the wake of a cold front. the favorable
fetch across north and central lake huron along with elevated mixing
depths from colder air aloft will allow for breezy conditions
through the morning. wind gusts around 30 knots will be likely, with
isolated gust to gales through 10am edt. winds decrease through the
late morning and afternoon hours as a ridge of high pressure briefly
fills in across the region.

attention then quickly turns a clipper low pressure system that
moves in across northern lower michigan and northern lake huron
tomorrow morning. a very strong pressure gradient will accompany
this seasonably strong low pressure system which will result in a
rapid uptick in sustained winds and gusts, along with winter
weather. given the strength of this system, gust to high-end gales
and sustained winds to gales are expected. a gale warning has been
issued for all marine areas. additionally, there will be a window
for storm force gusts through the day tomorrow, south of the low
pressure system. there are still small deviations as to where storm
force gusts will be possible pending this track of the low, but lake
erie to lake st. clair will be locations will have potential for
these stronger gusts, with additional lowered chances across the
saginaw bay and southern lake huron.

this low pressure system exits the area tomorrow night but will pull
in colder air in its wake, sustaining breezy conditions through
early saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...high wind watch from late tonight through friday evening for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

low water advisory from 4 am friday to 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...tf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.