Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
867
fxus61 kcle 272351
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
751 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

.what has changed...
a line of convection continues to push east across the mahoning
valley this evening, remaining sub-severe with isolated wind
gusts up to 20-25 knots possible and small hail. the severe
threat across northern ohio this evening has significantly
decreased with spc now highlighting the area in a slight risk.
additional storms are possible beginning around midnight tonight
as the cold front pushes east. there is a small chance that some
of those storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds the
primary concern, but given the unfavorable timing confidence
remains low on the intensity of that convection. overall, the
area should see a lull in any convection/precipitation over the
next couple hours.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will first move into the area between 5
and 8 pm. a few could be severe with damaging winds and heavy rain
the main hazards, but the storms with the greatest severity and
organization should stay west of the area.

2) additional showers and thunderstorms with lower severe potential
will accompany a cold front overnight.

3) a few lingering showers in ne ohio and nw pa tuesday and
wednesday, but otherwise drier, much cooler, and less humid through
the end of the week

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...the forecast continues to be very challenging and
low confidence this evening and tonight in terms of how upstream
convection will evolve and impact our region. two complexes of
thunderstorms are currently ongoing. the largest and most
organized of the two complexes (mcs`s) is currently propagating
s to se across eastern wisconsin, lake michigan, western lower
michigan, northern illinois, and nw indiana. this mcs has
produced widespread significant wind damage and multiple
tornadoes but will continue to make a hard right turn to the s
as it follows the eastern periphery of the thermal ridge, where
a very impressive theta e/instability gradient is draped from n
to s along a quasi-stationary front. this will allow this
mcs to largely miss our area to the west this evening, but the
eastern edge of it may clip the i-75 corridor in the roughly
21-00z (5 to 8 pm) timeframe with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

the second and smaller of the two mcs`s is located
over southern lake huron and southern ontario province. this mcs
is being more directly forced by the strong mid/upper shortwave trough
that is seen on water vapor imagery digging into the northern
great lakes this afternoon. as this shortwave dives through the
central great lakes this evening, the left exit of a 115-120
knot h3 jet streak will generate strong synoptic forcing to
sustain this mcs, as well as strengthen a surface low that will
move se into southern ontario tonight. despite lower
instability across northern ohio and nw pa (2000 mlcape)
compared to the extreme instability feeding the larger lake
michigan mcs, the combination of the jet support and surface low
should maintain this lake huron convection into our area.
current trajectories time this mcs to reach ne ohio and nw pa in
the 22 to 23z (6 to 7 pm) timeframe. the aforementioned
sufficient mlcape combined with 40-50 knots of effective deep
layer bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the convection will
support at least scattered severe winds, especially as the
boundary layer continues to warm late this afternoon, with dcape
increasing to over 1000 j/kg. even in the absence of severe
weather, most areas will see some rain and thunder with this
activity.

key message 2...
after a lull early tonight, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front as the
mid/upper jet support moves overhead tied to the shortwave
crossing the central great lakes. the convection this evening
should overturn the atmosphere and effectively use much of the
instability, but the aforementioned left exit region dynamics
will encourage strong forcing ahead of the cold front to get the
additional convection going overnight. this convection should
generally not be severe given the lower instability, but gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. maintained
high pops overnight until the cold front clears the area.

key message 3...
the mid/upper shortwave will become vertically stacked with the
surface low and close off over upstate new york by tuesday
evening. this along with the parent longwave mid/upper trough
becoming negatively tilted across the eastern conus by wednesday
and thursday will allow the system to evolve into a coastal low
near long island. the result for northern ohio and nw pa will
be broad cyclonic flow and associated cold air advection tuesday
through thursday. a secondary front or surface trough dropping
through the region tuesday afternoon combined with the
deepening trough aloft will generate scattered showers, mainly
in interior ne ohio and nw pa, so increased pops tuesday
afternoon. otherwise, wraparound moisture in the cyclonic flow
combined with cold air advection across the warm lakes will lead
to periodic lake enhanced showers over far ne ohio and nw pa
through wednesday before canadian high pressure finally builds
into the central great lakes and ohio valley late wednesday and
persists through the end of the week, supporting pleasantly cool
and dry conditions areawide. low temperatures will drop into
the 50s both thursday and friday mornings allowing the air
conditioners to get a break before gradual warming over the
weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
a narrow line of sub-severe convection is making its way east
through the mahoning valley this evening, but should depart east
of the area shortly after 00z. another round of convection is
expected late this evening into the early overnight hours as a
cold front moves across the area. this complex of convection can
currently be observed in northern mi and will be the area to
watch in the coming hours. with this line, expect diminished
conditions as reduced visibilities and falling ceilings will
quickly transition terminals from vfr to ifr. if the
precipitation dissipates before reaching northern ohio, still
expect ceilings to be high end ifr (around 800-900 feet) to low
end mvfr (1-2kft). confidence is rather low in the timing given
widespread amongst models, but expecting at least rain showers
for much of the area. conditions will remain diminished through
late morning/early afternoon on tuesday before lifting to vfr by
the afternoon across the entire area.

winds of 5-11 knots from the southwest will persist through
tonight with isolated gusts up to 20 knots. in areas with
convection, some gusts may be higher but that will depend on the
intensity of convection. as the front moves east tuesday
morning, winds will shift to north-northwesterly and increase to
10-13 knots with widespread gusts of 20-25 knots possible
through the end of this taf period.

outlook...non-vfr may persist in lower ceilings and scattered
showers through wednesday, primarily across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. non-vfr possible in scattered showers
and thunderstorms on saturday.

&&

.marine...
scattered thunderstorms are likely this
evening and tonight and winds/waves will likely be higher in any
storms. southwest winds will shift to the northwest and
increase to 15 to 25 knots early tuesday morning through much of
wednesday. the highest winds/waves will be in the nearshore and
open waters of the central basin. small craft advisories and
beach hazards statements have been issued from the islands to
conneaut tuesday morning through late wednesday evening and from
conneaut to ripley ny from tuesday afternoon through wednesday
afternoon. small craft conditions may briefly occur west of the
islands early tuesday morning so will need to monitor that area
for a brief expansion.

northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will continue through thursday
with more light and variable flow and daily lake breezes developing
friday into the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from tuesday morning through late
wednesday night for ohz009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from tuesday afternoon through
wednesday afternoon for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am tuesday to 2 am edt thursday
for lez144>148.
small craft advisory from 2 pm tuesday to 4 pm edt wednesday
for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...04/garuckas
aviation...04
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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944
fxus63 kiwx 272336
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
736 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

.key messages...

- showers and a few storms across northern indiana will sink
south of the area through the remainder of the evening. severe
weather is no longer expected.

- high swim risk tuesday for southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 255 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

the main forecast concern will be on the severe weather potential
through this evening.

a complicated convective scenario is unfolding across the great
lakes region this afternoon. preferred region of convective
development has been across northeast illinois along a corridor
of low level warm/moist advection. this forcing is coincident
with strengthening upper low level flow and effective shear
profiles. extreme instability with mlcapes 4-5k j/kg capes is
situated across northeast indiana with sharp eastward
diminishment in instability across northeast indiana/northwest
ohio. cells across northeast illinois are favoring strong cold
pools with signatures of very strong base velocity shifting
southeast across far northwest indiana. the combination of
shallow low level southwest flow and deeper northwesterly flow
in the mid/upper levels is favor some north to south preference
in propagation vectors with the storms across northeast
illinois. areas west of us route 31 across northeast indiana
should stand greatest risk of seeing higher end thunderstorm
wind gusts (80+ mph) as the storms across ne illinois drop
southeast. in addition to the risk of higher end damaging wind
gusts, the extreme instability will support some isolated large
hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter. also, the aforementioned
background shear profiles will continue to support some embedded
supercell structures with a risk of isolated tornadoes. 0-3km
shear vectors oriented from the northwest at around 30 knots
could also support a few qlcs tornado spinups where any rear
inflow jet can orient in a nw to se fashion and where more
mature cold pools develop.

additional storms are expected to develop across the great lakes
region this evening as low level front pushes southward with an
additional risk of scattered damaging wind gusts through around 02z.
confidence in severe gusts after 00z does diminish somewhat however.

by tuesday morning, the nose of the upper level jet streak will
reach the mid atlantic states with lagging sfc trough/cool front
expected to extend from western pa to southern illinois. passage of
this front will lead quieter weather conditions through the middle
of the week with temperatures/dew points closer to seasonable levels.

the next system to watch will be toward end of the work as the
potential exists for synoptic wave to become convectively enhanced
across the dakotas. some question exists as to instability
magnitudes as far east as southern great lakes/ohio valley with this
system with some indications of this system becoming more vertically
stacked in nature well to the west.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 735 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

the potential of thunderstorms has diminished across the
terminals this evening. some lingering light rain should clear
the terminal by 00z. cannot completely rule out isolated showers
late this evening/early overnight as cold front approaches from
the north, but this probability appears too low to include with
the 00z tafs. some post-frontal stratus and perhaps some fog
could develop late tonight into early tuesday morning, with
greater confidence in stratus development opposed to fog.
ifr/mvfr cigs should gradually mix out late tomorrow morning
into early afternoon with northwest winds becoming gusty to 15
to 20 knots.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from 4 am cdt tuesday through
wednesday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 5 am edt tuesday through
wednesday morning for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am tuesday to 2 am edt wednesday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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612
fxus63 kdtx 280113
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
913 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms
as a cold front moves through the region tonight.

- dry and a little cooler weather will dominate the mid week period.

&&

.update...

atmospheric conditions are recovering from the substantial period of
wake subsidence that trailed the afternoon mcs across the southern
great lakes. increasing coverage of convection to the north and west
is centered around the northern great lakes cold front and its
connection to wi surface low pressure. the parent mid level short
wave also provides a broader environment of at least weak vertical
motion. these larger scale features combine with moisture laden
mlcape lingering in the 1500-2000 j/kg range to favor increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms as the surface low and front
sweep across lower mi. there is lingering support for organized
storms with about 40 knots of nw flow at 500 mb, but perhaps limited
by how much updrafts can remain surface based along and ahead of the
surface low track. the scenario may favor an increase in coverage
while intensity holds below severe thresholds. assuming sufficient
coverage, then there is also a heavy rainfall component to consider
along and north of the surface low track given how the front settles
southward while the low moves eastward along it effectively
producing a slower moving pattern. best estimate on the surface low
track is along the i-69 corridor into southern ontario by about 3 am
followed by a diminishing trend in showers/storms through sunrise.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 705 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

aviation...

the storm complex to the sw tracking south places southern lower mi
between it and the cold front across the northern great lakes this
evening. surface wind across se mi was enhanced in the wake of the
storms during late afternoon as stratiform rain ended, which has now
settled into a steadier sw wind ahead of the wi surface low. this
low moves into lower mi and pulls the northern great lakes cold
front southward this evening and into ohio by sunrise. thunderstorm
trends will be monitored as these pressure features move through the
region while surface based instability recovers and/or remains
elevated. the low and cold front also become the focus of borderline
ifr/mvfr ceiling that shows expansion during the night through early
morning, especially as cooler air surges in on increasing northerly
wind after the frontal passage. the cooler air also becomes less
humid by tuesday afternoon, and this helps lift ceiling into
scattered vfr coverage from mid afternoon into tuesday evening.

d21/dtw convection... attention has shifted to the northern great
lakes cold front in evaluation of thunderstorm potential tonight.
this front enters the northern fringe of d21 shortly after midnight
and thunderstorm trends will be monitored for southward persistence
as the front enters the area.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight. high by tuesday
morning.

* low for thunderstorms overnight.

prev discussion...
issued at 405 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

discussion...

convection was targeting southeast michigan from several angles this
afternoon. the complex originating from the western up/wisconsin
spilled into southwest lower, merging with a line of storms that
formed rapidly/linearly near the western shores of lake michigan.
near-term confidence is rising that all these storm interactions
will miss the local area, based on current trajectories. regional
radar trends alone continue to support avoidance of the most
impactful convection, with the strongest activity holding just west
of the cwa. this keeps the most robust updrafts over the grr and iwx
domains, reflecting an overall diminishing pattern for thunder as
advertised in the latest hi-res runs given a tendency for upstream
convection to steer southerly.

from an environmental perspective, the synoptic drivers are absent
the locations of ongoing convection. the cold front(s) remain
displaced well off to the north and west while weak capping persists
locally. 27.18z kdtx raob indicates significant cap erosion compared
to the prior measurement, but still not a state of free-convection
which explains the lack of convection. surface dewpoints are quite a
bit lower than those upstream where storms fed off values in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. add to that ample cold air aloft and an
uncapped environment. note that 27.12z ml products have aggressively
backed off severe threats, taking into account some basis of muted
resolved diurnal convection. some cams try again to get another
round of organized storms through tonight (see 18z hrrr), therefore
cannot rule out potential through the early overnight hours.
conditional severe threat remains, should storms finally
materialize, but would favor elevated storms given the distribution
of instability aloft. based on the abysmal performance of nwp
handling local convection during the last 30 hours, latest pop
adjustments are a low confidence 35 percent chance between now and
06z. baseline blended guidance of 90 percent were too unreasonable.
satellite trends currently show a subsidence wake/dry slot moving in
from northern michigan, limiting potential during the evening time-
frame.

a mostly dry start is expected tuesday morning as the jet streak
aloft crosses lower michigan. geopotential heights initially hold
steady before gradually rising during the afternoon hours. embedded
weak vorticity signature should be inconsequential given the dryness
of the column and warming mid-level profiles. 850 mb temperatures
will trend inversely, cooling into the low teens. high temperatures
should be capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s as flow turns
northerly during the day, modified by lake huron water temperatures
in the 60s. lower column anticyclone emerges over the upper midwest
tuesday night with subsidence building overhead. this should make
for clearer skies and a seasonably cool night as dewpoints fall into
the 50s.

high pressure tendency becomes established over portions of the
great lakes through midweek favoring a mainly dry forecast and
breezy afternoon periods. temperatures gradually rise toward climo
by the end of the week as surface flow flips southerly. next
opportunity for organized precipitation comes during the weekend.

marine...

a low pressure system over wisconsin progresses across the central
great lakes this afternoon and evening. potential for scattered to
numerous thunderstorms is maintained across marine areas, especially
as the cold front tracks through late this evening and overnight.
the main threat with any storms will be wind gusts in excess of 35
kt and large hail. post-frontal nnw wind will increase early tuesday
morning and peak in the afternoon at 15 to 25 kt, with potential for
gusts to 30 kt across the southern basin of lake huron. this will
result in building wave heights, and small craft advisories have
been issued. high pressure builds across the western great lakes on
tuesday and wednesday, maintaining a northerly gradient and
potential for continued small craft advisory conditions across
southern lake huron. the high will slowly advance eastward thursday
and friday, ensuring dry conditions with lighter wind.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 am tuesday to 4 pm edt wednesday for
lhz421.

small craft advisory from 10 am tuesday to 4 pm edt wednesday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

update.......bt
aviation.....bt
discussion...kgk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.