Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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384
fxus61 kcle 040756
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
356 am edt fri sep 4 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing for another round of severe storms to
move west to east through the area late this morning and
afternoon. damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.

&&

.key messages...
1) another round of strong to severe storms is possible late
this morning into the afternoon. the potential will be displaced
slightly further southwest compared to thursday, largely
excluding far ne oh and nw pa.

2) seasonable and dry weather is expected for much of the
holiday weekend. unsettled weather may return by mid-next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest satellite imagery reveals a potent shortwave moving
east through the upper midwest, resulting in a robust area of
mainly elevated convection just west of lake michigan early
this morning. surface observations and the spc mesoanalysis
depict a tight moisture gradient extending roughly nw to se
along the southern flank of this convection from just north of
milwaukee southeastwards towards the mid-atlantic coast. the
latest radar imagery and trends suggest that this area of
convection may persist and become surface-based as it enters the
lower great lakes region and upper ohio valley later this
morning and early afternoon.

damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary concern with this
feature, given a strong dcape gradient in place across the
region and anticipated line storm mode, though some instances of
large hail also cannot be ruled out, especially out ahead of
the complex. given this, looking like an earlier time window
for the severe weather potential today, roughly between 10 am
and 3 pm as storms generally move east to southeast, with the
area of concern encompassing more of northwest and north-central
ohio rather than far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

attention then turns towards later this evening and overnight as
another round of nocturnal convection may develop across
michigan and move east to southeast into the area, though quite
a bit of uncertainty remains regarding this potential. the
latest guidance does suggest that most of this activity would
remain elevated, though isolated large hail, gusty winds, and
heavy rain cannot be ruled out. the frontal boundary will
finally be pushed south through the area on saturday with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly
along and south of us-30. severe weather is not expected at
this time.

key message 2...
high pressure will begin to build south across the great lakes
late saturday and persist into early next week. the latest
trends favor seasonable and mainly dry weather during this
timeframe with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and less
humidity.

will then begin watching the next system by mid-next week as
another upper-level ridge builds east across the central and
eastern conus, followed by the passage of a strong upper-level
trough moving east through the upper great lakes. shower and
thunderstorms chances will increase beginning wednesday
afternoon and evening, with the potential continuing into
thursday.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
expecting mvfr/ifr stratus to develop overnight at most
terminals, but excluding fdy/mfd, and will have trouble eroding
this out with mixing into the daytime hours. once again an
effort has been made to time some convective activity moving in
from the northwest, and have this in the 16-20z time frame for
cle/cak eastward. frontal boundary that has been lingering just
north of lake erie will finally push southward after 00z
saturday and through northern ohio towards the ohio river
valley with high pressure building in from the north for
saturday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rounds of showers/storms friday
night through early saturday.

&&

.marine...
waves around a foot or less through today, followed by a cold
front coming through tonight/early saturday. winds then come
around to the northeast 10-20kts and wave heights increasing to
2-3ft saturday through sunday night in the wake of this cold
front. winds become offshore/southeasterly late monday through
tuesday night with wave heights subsiding to a foot or less once
again.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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039
fxus63 kiwx 040640
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
240 am edt fri sep 4 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity continue with peak heat indices around 100
degrees.

- 20-40% chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. widespread
severe weather is not expected, but damaging wind gusts and
hail cannot be ruled out.

- a dry pattern takes over sunday through tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 238 am edt fri sep 4 2026

another murky forecast period lies ahead with respect to
thunderstorms today. first, the heat advisory was expanded once
again to encompass remaining northern indiana counties and a
majority of northwest ohio counties (exempt are williams and
fulton). michigan is also exempt. heat indicies once again approach
100f this afternoon. observations on thursday showed some sites
reaching heat advisory criteria by noon, if not the 11am hour. high
clouds this morning could briefly temper heat indicies, but
afternoon sun could easily flip the script. while duration of
advisory criteria may be limited today in some areas, we can then
play the consecutive-days card as we stare down the prospect of our
4th consecutive very hot day.

ongoing this morning is an increasingly mature area of thunderstorms
over central wi. forecast guidance generally suggests this cluster
will weaken as it crosses into western michigan after sunrise.
however, the instability gradient could lead any lingering storms
into southern michigan while effect shear of 40 knots could aid in
thunderstorm maintenance. this is at odds with lacking lapse rates
less than 7 c/km. confidence is low on how these storms evolve for
the remainder of the morning, but they will be monitored closely
prior to sunrise.

like 24 hours ago, our marginal risk of severe thunderstorms was
upgraded to a slight risk this morning. this is primarily driven by
the anticipated development of thunderstorms this evening amid a
strengthening 500-mb jet in which we lie within the right-entracne
region. the low-level jet strengthens as well. timing is nearly a
toss up in this challenging, nuanced mesoscale environment, yet
sometime after 8pm edt appears probable for storms to redevelop.
confidence is low, but damaging wind gusts and hail would be the
primary hazards from any severe storms today and tonight.

drying out saturday in the wake of any early-morning lingering
thunderstorms and not quite as hot as the upper-level jet buckles.
by sunday, canadian high pressure seeps in from the northeast,
shunting the upper-level ridge out of our area for a time and
bringing us a period of dry weather as well. look for surface low
pressure to cross the canadian prairie midweek, with a cold front
tracking across the northern and central plains. this cold front
looks to bring rather uniform coverage of showers and thunderstorms
to our area around midweek. beyond wednesday, there is varying
magnitudes of our well-discussed upper-level ridge, now displaced
through the mid-mississippi valley. this ridge may build back north
bringing continued warmth, or, the cold front could hang-up atop
this ridge keeping us in line for additional late-week storms.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1234 am edt fri sep 4 2026

an isolated supercell northwest of kmke will be monitored
through the morning hours. cyclic in nature, this cell may
continue to follow an instability gradient southeast ultimately
arriving to ksbn prior to 12z. waning instability but adequate
shear are the challenges. as has been the case this week,
guidance is mixed in handling this storm, with a general
preference in the ensemble guidance to favor upstream activity
over central wi. this secondary area is accounted for with a
prob30. low confidence any activity survives into kfwa; thus dry
there.

will be monitoring for fog this morning, but dew point spreads
are quite large at ksbn, while narrowing at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz004-005-015-
016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 040726
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
326 am edt fri sep 4 2026

.key messages...

- there is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather today.
severe weather will be possible this morning mainly south of m59,
with additional chance near the ohio border this afternoon.

- heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be a threat today
due to heavy rain the past few days and the potential for training
storms in a very moist environment.

- more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity are slated to
return this weekend.

&&

.discussion...

active early september weather pattern continues one more day as the
northwest flow remains over the region, downstream of the strong
plains ridge which will reamplify today. currently, the stalled
front remains draped across southern mi but has been muddled a bit
by the large convective complex that rolled through thursday
afternoon and evening. that complex also pushed the main instability
gradient westward. the next mid level wave is already initiating
convection over wi which will work through se mi early friday
morning. this wave will have skinny elevated cape and moderate mid
level lapse rates but alot of moisture with pwats still running
around 2 inches and surface dewpoints pushing 70 again. though the
developing complex will be outrunning the instability, expectations
are for the low level jet to help keep activity going into se mi
this morning. and if the wi convection can generate a decent cold
pool to help it along, that would help increase coverage and
strength of storms this morning. combing through all the cams, the
window for morning convection looks to be around 10-16z with a large
amount of variability. spc day 1 outlook just came out with pocket
of slight risk south of a line from grand haven to lake st clair,
giving credit to the strong cells currently over wi. we really need
to see how things line up locally today, how much can the
instability gradient push back into se mi and where does the front
come back together. could very well see the morning convection
reinforce the gradient to the west and south, preventing the best
cape from advecting back in. regardless...we`re looking for a round
of convection this morning, possibly lingering toward noon. qpf
values range from 0.5 - 1 inch across the area with the highest
totals south of i69. after the morning convection, we remain under
the active 850-700mb frontal band with weak low level jet still
going and all the moisture still so expecting scattered showers to
continue through the afternoon. wind and hail will be possible with
the strongest cells, but flooding may become a primary threat as
we`ve now had 2 days of heavy rain and todays showers and storms
will again be primed for heavy rain. any training of storms,
especially over those areas previously hit, may result in urban and
small stream flooding.

confidence goes way down for afternoon/evening storm chances.
outflow from earlier convection and surface frontal placement will
dictate where the next area of convection can initiate. in addition,
there are solutions that advertise the elevated front continues to
activate. lack of stronger mid level forcing should help minimize
chances for larger convective complexes and stronger storms from
developing. will have to see how the morning convection plays out
first.

with the front sagging back southward, may locations will be cooler
today with highs 80 or less. locations around the ohio border will
be south of the front the longest with less chance of early day
convection so temps may again rise into the mid 80s. with the high
dewpoints lingering one more day, heat indices may touch 90 briefly
this afternoon. high pressure builds south across the region this
weekend into next week which will bring cooler temps the rest of the
weekend and into next week with highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.marine...

a stalled frontal boundary draped over lower michigan and the
eastern great lakes drifts southward again today. this leads to
periods of additional thunderstorms for portions of the central
great lakes. saginaw bay will be most susceptible to getting clipped
by early morning convection, before thunderstorm clusters organize
further south along the front. waterways south of lake huron would
be the next point of arrival, with ongoing storms possibly passing
through mid-morning. once again, prevailing winds and waves should
stay below threshold criteria amidst a weak surface pressure
gradient, but the continued humidity favors rapid development of
strong to severe storms. such storms may be capable of gusts in
excess of 40 knots and/or hail in excess of 0.75 inches. mwss and
smws could be required to address short-term local watercraft
concerns. some hi-res models indicate a secondary round might
develop further south sometime this evening. no long-fused marine
headlines are expected through the weekend as the ridge over central
conus eventually weakens and dislodges eastward. local gusts should
remain just below small craft advisory criteria saturday, albeit
with increasing wave energy given onshore flow orientation. drier
weather is forecast for saturday and sunday, possibly through early
next week.

&&

.hydrology...

another thunderstorm complex is coming together over wi late tonight
which will track southeastward across the area this morning. a
subtropical air mass remains in place today which will allow for
torrential rainfall rates of over 1 inch per hour, but relatively
brief residence time of these rates has mitigated a more widespread
flooding threat thus far. there is the potential for some training
of storms which would result in pockets of amounts in excess of 2
inches. this would support a localized flooding threat especially if
this occurs over any urban areas or locations that received heavy
rain already in the past 24 hours.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1157 pm edt thu sep 3 2026

aviation...

late evening surface observations indicate ceiling and visibility
decreasing mostly on schedule toward ifr/lifr heading into the late
night. mbs has more variability on the edge of a larger mvfr cloud
area that extends into northern lower and the thumb region. fog is
more preferred with southward extent toward dtw where clearing sky
and light wind combine with moisture from wet ground. there is
otherwise a chance for a few clusters of showers and ordinary
thunderstorms developing overhead before sunrise.

the ceiling and visibility restrictions linger well into the morning
in and around another chance for organized thunderstorms moving in
from the northwest after sunrise. the forecast maintains prob30s
while monitoring upstream trends for later timing, intensity, and
location updates. the front and instability axis remain effectively
positioned near the in/oh border back up into the midwest setting up
a potential nw to se track that grazes se mi. the morning storms
move south of the in/oh border for the afternoon. they leave the
front still in the vicinity and a factor in cloud coverage through
friday evening.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for pockets of showers and
thunderstorms across d21 and nearby dtw during the late night, and
then another chance of greater storm organization in the morning.
the best timing estimate is from about 13z to 16z. there is also a
chance greater coverage moves west of dtw during the morning
followed by improved conditions friday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and friday.

* moderate for 200 ft ceiling and/or 1/2 sm visibility before
sunrise.

* low for thunderstorms after 13z friday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
hydrology....drk
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.