Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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135
fxus61 kcle 061138
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
738 am edt sat jun 6 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) showers and storms expected today ahead of a cold front that will
track through the region tonight with potentially severe level
storms.

2.) heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the great lakes.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
showers moving through michigan and southern ontario due to a
prefrontal surface trough and the emergence of a low level jet will
likely begin to dip southward into our cwa over the next several
hours. these will be largely low qpf producers and scattered in
nature, and not every location will receive rain this morning. as we
get into the daytime hours, flow aloft becomes cyclonic, and with
daytime heating, expecting not only a significant increase in the
instability, but a lowering of the cape as well. column rh could lag
a bit, but do not expect that to be an inhibiting factor to
convection today. models now showing an increase in the 0-6km bulk
shear compared to last night with 50kts, and could now see this
development becoming a line or cluster of storms moving mainly
northwest to southeast through the cwa. expecting mainly damaging
winds as a the threat, and this potentially severe convection should
initiate after 18z when insolation has had time to destabilize after
morning cloud cover exits.

key message 2...
high pressure in the wake of the cold front sunday and monday in
slightly cooler weather and convective chances returning tuesday
thanks to a relatively high amplitude upper level trough axis moving
through. another more persistent upper level ridge will move in for
the rest of the forecast period, through the end of the week, and
will mark a period where very warm temperatures should build in
along with higher dewpoints that eclipse 70f for much of the cwa
thursday and friday. will need to watch the apparent temperatures
for the end of next week with those higher dewpoints and
temperatures in place.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
initial push of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
east across the region this morning. have maintained tempo
groups for tsra across most taf sites through ~15z/sat. there
will be a brief break in precipitation late this morning into
early this afternoon. thunderstorms will redevelop this
afternoon along a line south of lake erie as a cold front pushes
south across the region. maintained prob30 for lakeshore taf
sites as convection may develop just south of them. elsewhere,
have tempo groups to time out non-vfr impacts in thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.

any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop and move over a
terminal will be capable of producing mvfr ceilings and/or
visibilities. any afternoon/evening thunderstorm may reach
severe limits and cause strong wind gusts and large hail.

southwest winds have decreased slightly early this morning to
8-12 knots but they are expected to increase later this morning
to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. locally higher wind gusts
possible in strong to severe thunderstorms. winds will turn
westerly while decreasing to 8 knots or less tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in patchy fog early sunday morning.
periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms monday night through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds increase to 15-20 knots ahead of the passage of
a cold front this evening. wave heights are expected to build
to 3-6 feet across the open waters and in the nearshore zones
of the eastern basin. have issued a small craft advisory and
beach hazards statement though this evening. as the cold front
moves south across the region showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening. high pressure builds
overhead behind the cold front allowing for northerly winds to
decrease to 10 knots or less on sunday. easterly flow increases
to 10-15 knots on monday before southerly flow returns on
tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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264
fxus63 kiwx 061139
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
739 am edt sat jun 6 2026

.key messages...

- there is a marginal to slight risk for strong to severe storms
today, especially between 2pm and 11 pm edt. confidence is
medium. damaging winds and large hail are the main threat.
frequent lightning and heavy rain are also expected.

- nearly daily chances (20-50 percent)for showers and storms
through next weekend, especially monday into tuesday night
(50-90 percent).

- hot and humid, especially from wednesday into next weekend.
heat indices will be at or slightly above 100 degrees at
times. highs will be in the upper 80s, low-mid 90s. lows in
the 60s, low-mid 70s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 505 am edt sat jun 6 2026

our cwa is still in a marginal to slight risk for today, though the
slight risk was expanded into portions of in. generally the slight
risk extends from san pierre, in (starke co) through milford, in
(kosciusko co) into pioneer, oh (williams co, in) and southeastward
of that line. for the afternoon, far northern berrien county, mi is
in general thunder vs. marginal risk (ongoing storms are main
threat). the greatest threat for severe weather will be mid to late
afternoon into the evening (2-11 pm edt). strong storms are still
possible through this morning/early afternoon.

a broad line of convection dropped southeastward from wi across lake
mi and as of this writing (3:45 am et) is just dropping into the
south bend, in to union city, mi area. lightning intensity has
tapered off in the last couple hours and breaks are beginning to
show within the line as it continues to weaken. still, the storms
are dropping into an area of steeper mid level lapse rates and
strong moisture transport, with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s and
even a couple nearing 70 (kppo, kanq). we`re also seeing the base of
the 500 mb trough approaching, with pva increasing and a jet streak
aloft. bulk effective shear looks to be in the 30-40 knot range
through the next 6 hours at least. we`ve also seen development in
scattered convection ahead of the line as the forcing/moisture
transport (llj) have increased with time. the main cold front is
still further north across the northern lower peninsula draped down
to southern wi/nw il. convection well ahead of that extends all the
way into il near kpia north to chicago...and is now in nw in as far
inland as goshen/rochester. expect this area of convection to
congeal with the incoming line, so have likely/categorical (55+)
pops dropping southeastward through the late morning.

at the moment, we have an sps out for the storm coming off lake mi
for half inch hail and 50 mph winds...with a smw out for lake mi
(expiring within the hour). this storm is the strongest at this
moment. otherwise, while a few storms could be strong don`t expect
widespread severe weather through the morning. in those cases
perhaps some 40-50 mph winds and small hail. frequent lightning and
heavy downpours are expected.

through the afternoon we`ll see the cold front drop southeastward,
moving into a moist unstable airmass. surface based cape even now is
1500-2000 j/kg in our nw though we are at this point seeing somewhat
of a cap. by late morning as the cap erodes, surface based
instability rises and expands cwa-wide into the 1000-2500 j/kg
range. mid level lapse rates start out strong this morning at 6.5 to
7.5 c/km, but by late afternoon we do see them start to drop to 5.5-
6.5 c/km which is less favorable in terms of our severe weather
threat. that being said, forcing from the cold front/mid level wave
combined with ample surface instability/moisture is sufficient to
keep things at least marginally severe (especially with 0-6km bulk
shear on the order of 30 to 45 knots). the main threats will be
damaging winds (15% prob in spc outlooks) and large hail (5% spc).
it`s possible we see a combination of multicell/line segments and
potentially even a few discrete supercells. spc keeps the tornado
risk (2 percent) further east of our area for now, but we all know
how supercells can get snippy in a hurry. 0-1km shear looks to be
around 20-25 knots at points in the south (hrrr has slightly
higher...). for now will see how things evolve and will focus
messaging on wind/hail as those are much more likely.

sunday will be dry for most areas earlier in the day as our cold
front stalls out somewhere in our far south/southwest cwa or
possibly even just south/west of our area for a period. later in the
day as we build some instability models suggest we see a brief
uptick in the convective activity. kept pops (20-40 percent)
confined to southwest of a line from westville, in to berne, in.
highs will be in the mid 80s for most areas. stationary front lifts
northeastward as a warm front monday into tuesday morning, stemming
from a low over southern wi/northern il. as the low drifts eastward
into lake erie through wed am, we`ll see the weak/decaying cold
front swing through and eventually wash out/stall as warm air
advection ensues from a separate system to the west (pulling
moisture from the gulf). the boundary looks to be along i 80-90 by
wed am. tuesday have 55-85 percent chances, then diminishing to 25
to 45 percent wednesday. highs will be in the mid-upper 80s on mon-
tuesday, with heat indices climbing into the 90s for some locations.

the main focus from wednesday onward will be the heat and humidity,
with high temperatures building into the upper 80s and low-mid 90s
each day. overnight temperatures in this period will be in the upper
60s and low to mid 70s, providing little relief from daytime heat.
it`s highly probable we`ll need heat advisories at some point in
this period, with heat indices of 95-105 degrees several days in a
row. if the forecast pans out, we`d have about 4 consecutive days of
heat advisory criteria, which would bump us into the extreme heat
warning headline criteria. this is especially true given overnight
temps in the low-mid 70s (and humid). tricky aspect is that the heat
indices of 100 or greater vary in exact location each day. at this
juncture, it would be wise to prepare for the heat and perhaps
reconsider any strenuous outdoor plans if possible. there will be
daily chances (20-30 percent) for showers and storms given the heat
and humidity, and the fact that we`re on the periphery of an upper
level ridge that gradually breaks down as a deep low pressure system
lingers in northern ontario close to hudson/james bay. this will
bring several shortwaves or surface fronts through our area.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 726 am edt sat jun 6 2026

a surface front will slink south through the area bringing
periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning as
well as late this afternoon and evening. shower/thunderstorm
activity this morning should move out east of the indiana/ohio
border after 15z. pockets of mvfr ceilings, especially further
north through ksbn, will gradually lift to vfr through the late
morning. an additional round of thunderstorms is possible near
and sw of kfwa mainly after 20z, moving south into central
indiana after 00z. winds today mainly westerly then shifting to
the northwest behind the surface front through this evening.
8-13 kt winds with gusts up to 20 kts will become light and
variable after 00z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...edwards

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
617
fxus63 kdtx 061108
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
708 am edt sat jun 6 2026

.key messages...

- line of showers and thunderstorms early this morning will be
capable of wind gusts to 40 mph before exiting into ontario by
daybreak.

- isolated thunderstorm redevelopment possible early this afternoon.
there is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail.

- dry sunday and monday followed by building heat with reoccurring
periods of thunderstorms tuesday onward.

&&

.aviation...

showers have dissipated with vfr conditions over most of the area to
start this taf period. the lull in precipitation will continue
through the morning as greater coverage of lower mvfr to possibly
ifr clouds begin to develop ahead of an advancing cold front. the
front will also trigger isolated showers and possible thunderstorms
this afternoon. confidence in activity impacting the southern
terminals is low, but will include a prob30 group to highlight the
potential across ptk and south. better chances reside near the
southern mi border. drier air filters back into the region later
today brining a northerly wind shift this evening and clearing
skies.

d21/dtw convection...low probability for an isolated thunderstorm
between 16z and 20z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms this afternoon.

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am edt sat jun 6 2026

discussion...

ongoing line of convection stretches from lapeer to coldwater,
marching steadily eastward at 45 mph. this line continues to decay as
it encounters a more stable environment over se michigan. nonetheless,
most locations see measurable rain before the line departs into
ontario by 10z (6am). drier air then filters in for the morning
hours, with pockets of clearing possible especially across the north
given trends over northern lower michigan/wisconsin.

weak cold front slowly drops across southern michigan through the
day, noted by a subtle veering trend in wind direction and lowering
dewpoints. not much of an impact on temperature prospects, as most
areas are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon. the
front reaches the i-94 corridor around the time that boundary layer
destabilization begins early this afternoon, coincident with a
renewed region of large scale ascent as a second embedded wave
ripples along the ohio border. this wave should help isolated cells
break through the remnant subsidence bubble from this morning`s
convection. the strongest updrafts will be able to take advantage of
mid-level dry air (dcape over 1000 j/kg) and lapse rates ~6.5 c/km,
capable of producing isolated damaging winds and large hail. outside
of isolated thunderstorm activity along/south of i-94, most of se
michigan stays dry after this morning round of convection exits.

post-frontal anticyclonic flow develops this evening, clearing out
moisture with pwat values dropping to roughly 0.7" by sunday
morning. this establishes a sharp moisture gradient upstream that
will stall on the periphery of the high through at least monday
morning. locally, a dry and stable column affords plenty of sunshine
sunday and early monday while 500mb heights approach an anomalous
590 dam overhead (99th percentile climatologically). daytime highs
in the low to mid 80s will be the coolest we see through the rest of
the forecast period.

ridge amplification will quickly be disrupted by the slow migration
of a pacific wave toward the great lakes, releasing the moisture
gradient into se michigan monday afternoon. modest height falls then
peak tuesday while moisture transport ramps up to bring the next
opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area.
main concern for tuesday is a heavy rainfall threat as a very
moisture-rich environment develops (low 70s dewpoints and pwat of
2.0 inches) alongside tall/skinny cape profiles and weak cloud layer
winds. wpc maintains a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across
lower michigan. the severe threat will be much more isolated and
mainly the result of any precipitation-loaded downbursts given weak
column winds.

return flow becomes well established wednesday onward as 850mb
temperatures climb toward 20 c. this leads to a warming trend in
which highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat
indices nearing 100 degrees given the humid antecedent airmass.
destabilization is expected each day leading to daily afternoon-
evening thunderstorm chances, which introduces uncertainty to the
high temperature forecast. nonetheless, next week brings several
flavors of impactful weather to watch: heat, heavy rain, and
thunderstorm potential.

marine...

weak surface low tracking through northern lake huron early this
morning taking the bulk of the showers with it. bulk of the day
today looks dry, with light, mostly westerly winds today. however, a
weak cold front will sink southward late in the day, serving as the
focal point for scattered, potentially marginally severe
thunderstorms, with the highest probability over lake st. clair and
lake erie. very light northeast flow and dry conditions will follow
for saturday night and sunday. warm and humid weather returns early
next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms on tuesday. an upper
level ridge will become reestablished for the mid week period,
resulting in mainly light winds and and hot temperatures through the
end of the work week.

hydrology...

a line of decaying showers and thunderstorms impacts se michigan
early this morning with rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.75" possible.
isolated thunderstorms may then redevelop early this afternoon
(primarily south of i-94), bringing localized daily rainfall amounts
over an inch. the extended period of dry conditions recently
suggests the potential for flooding is low, but isolated flooding
will be possible if any of the higher amounts affect the typical
flood prone locations in urban areas. additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected next week as an extended stretch of warm
and unstable conditions develop. heavy rain will be possible tuesday
onward.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......sf
hydrology....mv


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.