Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 am edt mon aug 24 2026

.what has changed...
no impactful changes were made with this morning`s forecast
update.

&&

.key messages...
1) nicer and drier weather will arrive today for most of the
area. scattered lake effect rain showers will continue to
impact far neoh and nwpa today through early tuesday.

2) a weak cold front will move across the great lakes region
late wednesday night into thursday with the next chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
scattered lake effect rain showers and isolated thunder will
continue to impact the "snowbelt" area of far northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania today through tonight. a deep upper
level trough has developed over the eastern half of the great
lakes this morning and will slowly move eastward by tomorrow.
the backside of this trough will continue to bring a cooler
northerly flow over the eastern great lakes today and tonight
before it finally pulls away tuesday. therefore, scattered lake
effect rain showers will continue over neoh and nwpa through
early tuesday morning. rain chances or pops will be likely today
and gradually decrease overnight into early tuesday morning.

for the rest of northern and central ohio, nicer weather will
return today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier
weather. high pressure will build across the ohio valley today
and continue to bring very nice weather through wednesday.
high temperatures will be cooler today with upper 60s in far
neoh and nwpa where there will be more clouds and showers from
lake effect. north central and northwest ohio will have more
sunshine with passing scattered clouds and high temps in the
lower to middle 70s. it will also feel less humid with the drier
airmass moving. high temps will slowly climb over the next few
days reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on wednesday areawide.
overnight low temps will be in the 50s away from the immediate
lakeshore.


key message 2..
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be wednesday
night through thursday evening with a weak, slow moving cold
front across the great lakes region. the latest model guidance
has trended slightly downward on pops and qpf. at this time, it
appears there will be scattered showers and some thunder
possible with the greater pops around 40 to 50 percent during
day thursday. severe weather is not expected at this as
the thermodynamics looks fairly weak. high pressure will build
back into the region on friday with warm and nice day. high
temperatures will climb through next weekend with lower to
middle 80s across the area.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
main potential impacts this taf period are lake effect clouds
and rain showers across parts of northeast oh and northwest pa,
and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt
with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning into this afternoon.
main impacts from the lake effect will be at eri, where
occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible
with any showers that impact the field. there is an uptick in
activity occurring now, with another uptick likely mid to late
afternoon...have tempos for both windows. a shower may try
developing near cle before 14z, though thus far that has not
taken shape that far west so confidence is too low for any
inclusion in the taf. cumulus around 040-050 will become sct-
bkn across northeast oh and northwest pa this afternoon, with
vfr conditions and only few-sct cumulus farther west. some
patchy fog/mist is likely early tuesday morning near the end of
the taf period, and began a light mention at the prone sites.

outlook...non-vfr possible at times in lake effect rain and/or
low ceilings in nw pa into tuesday. non-vfr may return in
showers and thunderstorms wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
brisk west-northwest winds in the 15-25 knot range will continue
through this afternoon, before subsiding to 10-15 knots tonight
as high pressure builds out of the ohio valley. winds will
diminish to 10 knots or less and become more variable on tuesday
as high pressure moves overhead, before shifting south at near
10 knots tuesday night and wednesday ahead of an approaching
cold front. this weak cold front crosses the lake wednesday
night into thursday, increasing winds slightly to 10-15 knots
and veering them to a more southwesterly direction. waves of 3
to 7 feet will continue across the central and eastern basin
through this afternoon before gradually subsiding from west to
east late today through tuesday. all ongoing headlines remain
as posted east of the islands before expiring from west to east
late this afternoon or evening. waterspouts remain possible on
lake erie with any shower activity through tuesday morning,
especially across the eastern basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
ohz009-010.
beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lez144-
145.
small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
532 am edt mon aug 24 2026

.key messages...

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake mi beaches along the
berrien co, mi shoreline today. breaking waves of 2-3 feet and
currents are expected. see the latest beach forecast for
details.

- quiet weather through tuesday night, with highs in the 70s,
low 80s. lows overnight in the 50s.

- chances for showers and thunderstorms (30-60 percent) return
wednesday and persist into thursday. there is a marginal risk
for strong-severe storms for portions of the area late
wednesday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large
hail the main threat. confidence is low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 525 am edt mon aug 24 2026

quiet weather-wise today into tuesday night/wed am, with partly to
mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the 70s, low 80s.
overnight lows will be in the 50s.

northwest flow will keep waves on lake mi in the 2-3 ft range for
beaches along berrien county, mi shoreline today. the higher waves
will be further north as winds strengthen slightly there this
afternoon. conditions are still moderate swim risk this morning,
coming down from high risk last night. waves are around 2 feet with
5-6 second periods.

the surface high pressure/upper level ridge in place today and tue
will slowly drift eastward and break down through wednesday, with an
upper level trough crossing the great lakes later in the day
wednesday into thursday night. this will bring a surface cold front
through our entire forecast area by thursday morning. have chances
for showers/storms increasing wed into thu am from west to east,
peaking around 30-60 percent for now (best chances west late wed
aft/eve). spc added about 2/3rds of our cwa into a marginal risk for
strong to severe storms...generally northwest of a line from marion,
in up into defiance, oh and onto wauseon, oh.

confidence is low at this time, especially further east mainly due
to later arrival time-approx. 5-8 pm edt wed in the far west, then
moving eastward as we lose daytime heating/instability. mid level
lapse rates aren`t all that impressive either (bordering on 6 c/km).
still, some of the guidance has mixed layer cape in the 1500-2500
j/kg range further west in that earlier period, with about 25-35kts
of 0-6 km shear. dewpoints also reach into the mid-upper 60s, low
70s. as they mentioned in their discussion, sufficient for
multicells and even a few supercells. main threats are isolated
large hail and damaging wind gusts, but with low lcl`s and a bit of
low level wind shear (depends on the model), we could see tornado
potential. at any rate, a lot could change in the next couple of
days so will continue to monitor and refine the area of greatest
risk. high temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s.

dry conditions return friday and most of saturday, then low end (20-
30 percent) rain and storm chances are possible sat night into
monday. highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 525 am edt mon aug 24 2026

predominantly vfr conditions expected at the terminals through
the period, with mainly scattered clouds around 4-6kft. could
see some west-northwest wind gusts up to around 20 knots this
afternoon, otherwise winds will be light (and variable/near calm
overnight/early this am). with light winds/mostly clear skies
overnight we could see some br/fg development (mainly at ksbn
this am, kfwa tomorrow morning). left out of the ksbn taf for
this morning as much of guidance has visibility drops around 6sm
or greater. at kfwa, it`s possible we see ifr/lifr conditions
closer to 8-12z tue am. have mvfr visibility for now (4sm br)
given favorable conditions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
553 am edt mon aug 24 2026

.key messages...

- slightly cooler than average conditions today with rain chances
persisting in the thumb this morning.

- warming trend for the middle of the week with the next chance of
rain coming in the late wednesday and thursday period.

- warmer and noticeably more humid conditions for the end of the
week.

&&

.aviation...

intense low pressure for this time of year is nearly stationary on
the ontario/quebec border today. it continues to drive gusty nw wind
which reinforces the cool air mass across lower mi while rain
showers graze the area east of the terminal corridor. there is also
a renewed daytime cloud component that increases coverage by late
morning through the afternoon. the system drifts slightly farther
east during this time which increases stability enough to cap off
showers or thunderstorms through afternoon peak heating. this means
dry weather and vfr ceiling into the evening followed by a gradual
clearing and decreasing wind trend late tonight and tuesday morning.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms forecast today or tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 am edt mon aug 24 2026

discussion...

deep upper level trough will maintain its influence over southeast
michigan throughout the day. combination of warm lake water
temperatures with tight cyclonic flow will continue to bring lake
effect or bay effect rain chances to the thumb this morning. the
outstanding question is when rain will eventually pull away from
huron county today. forecast soundings support a fair amount of
warming in the 3.0 to 6.0 kft agl layer after 15z as lower heights
push eastward. the net result is that higher midlevel stability
working into the top of the mixed layer should cause lake/bay effect
to become more sparse by the afternoon today. highs today are
expected to be in the middle to upper 70s which is 2 to 4 degrees
below normal.

surface high pressure will build across the region tonight and
tuesday. ideal lat e summer for tuesday with daytime highs near 80
degrees and dewpoints in the 50s.

warm front will lift across lower michigan tuesday night and early
wednesday as broad troughing settles into the upper midwest. models
have been very consistent in showing nothing more than a very weak
upper level jet streak. big picture perspective suggests that
precipitation chances will rely heavily on when direct differential
cyclonic vorticity arrives. this suggests sometime late in the
wednesday period particularly for areas south of i 69. this looks
good as residual stability and dry air from strong subsidence the
day before will be place wednesday afternoon. the current forecast
calls for dry or a slight chance in detroit prior to 00z thursday.
models then suggest a good amount of wave dampening which results in
nothing more than a spoke of absolute vorticity early thursday,
unorganized embedded wave energy late thursday and early friday.
good confidence slightly more humid weather thursday with dewpoints
then dropping behind a cold front friday.

lower confidence exists regarding the forecast next weekend. there
is some global deterministic differences on when the next pacific
jet packet will push into the great lakes region. gfs suggests as
early as saturday while the ecmwf waits until sunday. temperatures
look to be in the 80s next weekend.

marine...

post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist as cooler air is
ushered into the great lakes. maintenance of wind gusts on the order
of 20 to 30 knots is expected, along with some isolated gust
potential to 35 knots across central lake huron. this higher end
gust potential remains most favorable for the morning and early
afternoon hours. small craft advisories across the saginaw bay and
into port huron have been extended through this evening.

lingering rain showers and a very low chance for a waterspout also
continues across lake huron, tapering off by the afternoon. high
pressure will then begin building into the great lakes late this
evening and will center over the region by tomorrow. wind speeds
start to diminish tonight as a result, leading to lighter winds
tomorrow.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...beach hazards statement through this evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...cb
marine.......cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.