Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
715 pm edt sat aug 15 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
the risk for heavy rainfall that could produce flash flooding this
evening into tonight has increased for portions of northern ohio. a
flood watch has been issued for these areas through 8 am sunday. the
severe weather potential continues to decrease for today and
tonight, focusing more on the heavy rain threat.

&&

.key messages...
1) an active weather pattern is expected through the next 36 hours
with several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. heavy rain may
produce flash flooding through sunday night. thunderstorms could be
strong to severe, primarily on sunday, with the potential for gusty
to damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two.

2) the next window for showers and storms will be on wednesday with
a strong cold front.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
some shower activity is moving across the forecast
area this afternoon bringing just some light rain amounts across
northern ohio. the main show for this evening and tonight will be
courtesy of an mcv moving through indiana this afternoon. activity
ahead of this feature is waning across ohio and indiana and a dry
slot with clearing has developed, stretching from fort wayne to just
northwest of indianapolis. this will allow for some instability to
build and eventually this mesoscale feature to generate new
convection with heavy rainfall and some thunder activity. the
trajectory of this feature and any convection will be into the
southwest portion of the forecast area. with precipitable water
values over 2 inches, rain will be heavy and efficient. with recent
rainfall across the area, there is more susceptibility to flooding.
therefore, there is flash flooding potential through tonight. have
gone ahead and issued a flood watch for the most concerning areas.
in addition, some of this area is currently highlighted by a
moderate risk for excessive rainfall by wpc. the severe risk for
tonight continues to trend down with rain working over the region
and limiting the overall instability. there remains a marginal risk
for severe weather from spc for the low end potential for a damaging
wind gust.

for sunday, another shortwave will move through the northwest flow
aloft and support a cold front through the area. ahead of this
front, more shower and storm activity will be possible. there could
be a brief break in convective activity during the morning hours as
the mcv and associated convection leaves the region. this could
allow for some instability to build and provide an environment more
suitable for widespread shower and storm activity later in the day.
the biggest concern will be the continued heavy rain threat that
could have some flash flooding implications. the current flood watch
may need to have some portions extended into sunday. however, there
will also be a slightly greater severe weather threat as more
instability in a slightly better sheared environment could provide
more fuel for storms and help provide more of a damaging wind threat
or potentially a tornado or two. most of the area is a day 2
marginal risk for severe weather from spc with a small south portion
of the area in a slight risk.

isolated to scattered rain showers may linger sunday night into
monday morning across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

key message 2...
a cold front is expected to move through the forecast area on
wednesday, bringing showers and storms to the area. there will
be less moisture and instability across the region compared to
recent days and largely expect activity to remain generic and
sub-severe. behind the cold front, there will be a firm pattern
change to more of a late summer/early fall air mass with high
temperatures in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
the main message for aviation weather will be variable flight
categories and conditions going into tonight through sunday
morning. conditions are starting out vfr early this evening. a
mcv will across the area tonight with scattered showers and
convection. we have -shra spreading from west to east across the
area tonight as well as 4 hour tempo groups highlighting 3sm
-tsra potential. ceilings will lower to lower end mvfr to
possible ifr later tonight into sunday morning for most taf
sites. mvfr to vfr ceilings are expected for the most part on
sunday at all taf sites. winds will be start out southeasterly
to southerly 5 to 8 knots this evening shifting around from the
southwest to westerly 8 to 12 knots sunday morning into the
afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms
through sunday night. non-vfr possible wednesday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are fairly light at around 5 knots and
variable. showers and thunderstorms are possible across the lake
this afternoon through sunday evening and higher winds and waves are
possible within these storms. overnight, winds will increase to 10-
15 knots and be predominantly out of the east-southeast then shift
to the south as a warm front lifts north across the region. waves
will be 2 feet or less during this time period. a cold front will
pass over the lake sunday night and winds will shift to be out of
the north-northwest and 10-15 knots and waves will build to 1-3
feet. winds will subside through the day on monday down to 5-10
knots, then become light and variable monday night into tuesday.
winds will increase again tuesday into wednesday out of the
southwest at 10-15 knots ahead of the low pressure system entering
the great lakes region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch through sunday morning for ohz017>019-027>032-
036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...77
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
841 pm edt sat aug 15 2026

.key messages...

- an isolated strong to severe storm or two possible between 6
and 9 pm edt today, mainly east of i-69 and the us 30
corridor. main threats will be damaging winds and an isolated
tornado.

- additional round of rain and sub-severe storms likely between 4 am
and noon edt.

- flood watch continues along and south of us 30 where heavy rain
will continue to exacerbate ongoing flooding through sunday.

- dry conditions return monday and tuesday.

&&

.update...
issued at 828 pm edt sat aug 15 2026

an mcv continues to slowly track across far northeast indiana
and northwest ohio this evening. as this feature has tracked
eastward, a weak to modest surface based instability axis on
the order of 1000 j/kg has migrated as far north as the us route
24 corridor. downstream of this mcv, convective activity has
increased with a instances of some weak low level rotation. as
mentioned in previous discussions, presence of this mcv
feature, low lcls, and proximity of a 100 m2/s2 0-1km srh pocket
will be conducive for a very low probability of funnel clouds
and perhaps a brief weak tornado through 02z. to the north,
across far northern indiana and southern lower michigan, a few
funnel cloud reports have also been received along what appears
to be weak west-east boundary likely enhanced by the eastward
progression of the mcv. non-supercell tornado parameters do have
a relative maximum along this boundary and cannot discount a
few more instances of funnel clouds through sunset. convective
parameters are much more unfavorable for any significant severe
weather across these locations. additional thunderstorms are
expected overnight into early sunday morning as broad warm/moist
advection produces increasing elevated instability. there is a
potential that the bulk of this activity may remain north of
areas most sensitive to additional heavy rainfall/flooding
concerns. a flood watch will remain in place however through 15z
sunday for areas roughly south of us route 30.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1230 pm edt sat aug 15 2026

stratiform rain continues to diminish as of midday, although there
are still some areas of light rain ongoing south of us 24. visible
satellite shows a few pockets of clearing as an mcv approaches the
il/in border, but more widespread breaks in the clouds will be
needed to recharge the atmosphere for potential storms this
afternoon and evening. it is worth noting that isolated strong to
severe storms are still possible despite the downgrade from spc to a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today. the
aforementioned mcv is expected to move across northern indiana this
afternoon and evening. storm development is possible between 4-8 pm
edt today. coverage will likely be spatially limited as the better
environment is off to our southwest, however, i think the best
chances for isolated severe weather today will be mainly east of i-
69 and along/south of us 30. this would include grant, blackford,
jay, wabash, adams, and allen counties in indiana and defiance,
henry, putnam, paulding, putnam, and van wert in ohio. models vary
widely on a solution, with some showing no storms and some showing
discrete cells capable of producing severe weather. 30-40 kts of 0-
6km shear, 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 srh, and a narrow corridor of
moderate instability may develop along the i-69 corridor
depending on how much clearing we can get this afternoon. this
would be a favorable environment for damaging winds and an
isolated, brief tornado. with a low end severe threat, this is a
highly conditional setup depending on clearing and how much the
atmosphere has been depleted by this morning`s rain. despite
favorable shear and instability, poor lapse low and mid level
rates can be seen in forecast soundings from most of the cams,
which will likely be a limiting factor.

wpc does have a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall
along and south of us 30 today, where a flood watch is in effect.
strong moisture transport is expected and precipitable water values
will once again be at or above 2 inches today. with such high
moisture content in the airmass overhead (99th percentile pwats and
dewpoints well into the 70s), any storm could be a very efficient
rainfall producer with rain rates between 1-2" per hour. given that
the ground is so saturated south of us 30, where 6-12"+ of rain has
fallen since this past tuesday, renewed flash flooding in areas that
have already been hard hit is becoming an increasing concern. on
the very very low chance that an isolated tornado occurs in
east-central indiana somewhere in wells, adams, grant,
blackford, and jay counties where areal and river flooding is
ongoing, the best recommendation is to safely shelter in the
lowest level away from windows and doors but to stay away from
flooding.

one last round of scattered rain and storms is likely sunday
morning, becoming more isolated into the afternoon hours. we will
have to monitor convection in eastern iowa and northern illinois
overnight that will move eastward. unfortunately, the axis of
heaviest rain looks to be south of the us 30 corridor before
daybreak sunday as the llj ramps up with the stationary front in the
vicinity. high pwats and dewpoints will contribute to efficient,
heavy rainfall late overnight into sunday morning. the primary
timeframe for rain and storms looks to be between 4 am to noon
edt. an isolated strong storm is possible south of us 24, but
once again, flooding is expected to pose a higher threat
spatially than severe weather. due to this potential, the
current flood watch has been extended to last until 8 am edt
sunday.

a welcome break from daily rain and storm chances is ahead! we
finally see a reprieve in the `ring of fire` pattern monday and
tuesday as high pressure builds across the great lakes. this will
allow for the area to dry out, floodwater to recede, and for
river levels to fall. temperatures will be seasonable with highs
in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with lots of sun.

another chance for rain and storms comes wednesday with a cold
front, although it may be short lived as high pressure looks to
return over the great lakes once again. after a very active first
half of august and a top 10 wettest august on record for some
locations already, we would happily welcome a stretch of dry weather
by the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 756 pm edt sat aug 15 2026

an mcv tracking across far northeast indiana and northwest ohio
is combining with a weak instability axis for some convective
development this afternoon. this focus is expected to remain
east of kfwa this evening. additional showers and isolated
storms are expected to develop overnight in a broad low level
theta advective regime. some mid level support via a weak mid
level trough is expected to approach from the corn belt, but
overall organization is expected to be limited with these
showers and storms. did include prob30 to cover this potential,
although confidence in timing is on the lower side. a lull in
showers is expected later sunday morning, but lower coverage
convection is possible with the actual cold frontal boundary
toward end of this period. confidence remains too low for
inclusion at this time. otherwise, cigs should deteriorate to
mvfr again tonight, and possibly ifr for a time before improving
through the morning on sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through sunday morning for inz012-013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
oh...flood watch through sunday morning for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1200 am edt sun aug 16 2026

.key messages...

- gradually increasing chances for showers and possibly some
thunderstorms through tomorrow. heavy rainfall leading to localized
flooding is possible, mainly along and south of the i-94 corridor.

- showers and storm chances late tuesday into early wednesday.

&&

.aviation...

smaller scale deformation forcing and broader 875-700mb thetae
advection attempted to bring shower activity to southeast michigan
for a period this evening. uncertainty does continue to exist for any
coverage and duration of shower activity now that a little deeper
moisture is in place. will need to monitor for the potenital of ifr
ceilings to develop overnight with weak flow. additional activity is
forecasted to develop on nose of 850mb jet impulse back across
northern illinois tonight and will brush southeast michigan sometime
between 10-14z sunday morning. the potential does exist for some
intermittent shower activity at dtw during that timeframe but very
low confidence exists. quiet period midday sunday with another chance
of shower and isolated thunderstorm in southwest flow and along a
cold front 21z sun to 6z monday.

d21/dtw convection... no thunder activity anticipated at the
airfield tonight. additional window for convection is possible
sunday morning 10-15z and again 21z sun-06z mon, but overall thunder
coverage is expected to be limited.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and tomorrow.

* low for thunderstorms this evening and again sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 pm edt sat aug 15 2026

discussion...

cloud shield has overspread a good portion of southeast michigan
today. the clouds originated with yet another episode of deep
convection across illinois and indiana this morning. the persistent
ribbon of deep moisture and reduced moist stability continues to
lurk just to the south with peripheral influence in the form of a
gradual increase in near surface moisture and expanding cloud cover.
meanwhile, the warmest conditions are observed across the thumb and
saginaw valley, where sunny skies remain.

a weak zone of stretching deformation below 700-mb is draped along
the southern border counties. it is currently supported by
unbalanced flow through increasing system-relative cyclonic flow and
is maintaining forcing for light shower development, which is
expected to continue through the balance of the daylight hours.
furthermore, a weak mcv just south of lake michigan will move
eastward along this zone - potentially augmenting the ongoing
activity into this evening. the response will be muted in
intensity, though, due to the lack of instability.

looking upstream, a shortwave trough over montana and the southern
prairie provinces will slide toward the region tonight. as this wave
approaches, it will start to interact with low-level frontal zone
across the corn belt. one result will be the southwestward
extension of the upper-jet and the induction of below entrance
region ascent. coincidentally, the moist unstable airmass over the
mid-mississippi valley will claw northeast across the lower
peninsula tomorrow morning in a corridor ahead of the wave and the
approaching cold front. some residual upstream shower activity may
survive along the leading instability gradient as it advects into
southeast michigan during the early to mid morning. otherwise,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across lower
michigan tomorrow afternoon into the evening. the best support for
coverage will be closer to the main shortwave across central lower
michigan into the thumb region. instability source depth will be
restricted to the lowest 1-km, with not much cape depth to govern a
higher predictability zone for sustained development. furthermore,
the lack of deep layer shear projects the lack of convective
organization - aside from any activity that is forced along cold
frontal zone.

in the wake of the cold front, monday and the first half tuesday
look quiet and seasonable.

a broad region of height falls is expected across eastern canada
into the lakes region and the northeast going into midweek. all the
global ensemble families are trending toward lower with height
projections in the context of reduced intra-family spread - garnering
greater confidence in a meaningful pattern shift. the onset of the
cooler conditions will be prefaced by a cold front with some showers
and storms possibly as early as tuesday afternoon. chances are
lingering into early wednesday, as the timing of the front is still
getting sorted out. an early arrival would offer greater
thunderstorm chances during peak heating hours on tuesday, while a
delayed arrival would place the region in the nocturnal minima for
convection. the replacement airmass will be cooler and drier with
highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the low-mid 50s.

marine...

high pressure over the northeast continues to move east over the
atlantic as low pressure tracks across ontario through sunday. as
the low tracks north of the area, it will push a cold front through
the central great lakes region late sunday. ahead of the front,
south winds prevail for much of sunday around 10 to 20 knots. behind
the cold front, northwest winds fill in and increase across lake
huron, and eventually down through lake st. clair and the michigan
waters of lake erie late sunday. while the strongest winds are
expected across lake huron, especially the open waters with 20-25
knot winds expected sunday evening into early monday morning, will
need to keep an eye on the wave forecast and the potential for small
craft advisories for nearshore waters across the tip of the thumb of
michigan. showers and thunderstorms will be possible as this system
moves through sunday and sunday night. the best chance for
thunderstorms will be along the cold front later in the day and into
the evening hours.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mann
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.