Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
748
fxus61 kcle 192251
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
651 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains largely unchanged. a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms has been added south of a line from mount gilead to
canton to youngstown for friday afternoon. temperatures have been
adjusted along the northeast lakeshore to account for temperatures
ahead of and behind the various boundaries.

&&

.key messages...
1) a warming trend is expected into this weekend with showers and a
low chance of thunderstorms friday. there is potential for an
isolated severe thunderstorm late friday afternoon/evening closer
to central ohio.

2) well above normal temperatures are expected sunday followed by
showers with a chance of thunderstorms sunday night as a strong cold
front pushes south, ushering in much cooler air for monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1...
low pressure will slide east into the great lakes region on friday
ahead of a shortwave trough moving through the northwest flow aloft.
a warm front lifts north ahead of this feature overnight with a
southwesterly low level jet of 45-55 knots crossing lake erie. mixing
heights will be somewhat shallow on friday, exceeding 3k feet during
the afternoon which will yield wind gusts of 25-35 mph. despite good
coverage of mid and high level clouds, high temperatures are
forecast to be above normal ranging from the mid 60s in nw ohio to
mid 50s in nw pennsylvania. low levels are forecast to be dry in the
warm sector during the morning with chances of showers developing in
the northeast first, then accompanying a cold front pushing south
across north central and northeast ohio during the afternoon.
instability ahead of the front will be limited with dewpoints
generally in the upper 40s but there is a window of time where
instability reaches 200-400 j/kg. there will be 45-50 knots of shear
available so if a thunderstorms does develop we will need to monitor
intensity, but storms are more likely to intensify as they move out
of our area. this is the location that the storm prediction center
has placed a marginal risk of severe weather.

temperatures drop back slightly behind the cold front on saturday
and have lowered high temperatures along the northeast lakeshore
where the marine airmass is likely to have an influence. skies will
also be clearing with light winds making for a pleasant day.

key message #2...
a broad ridge aloft expands east into the area on
sunday ahead of low pressure approaching from the plains. the warm
front lifts back north on saturday night with the area located in
the warm sector on sunday. conditions will be breezy again on sunday
with another low level jet of 40-50 knots aloft, resulting in winds
gusting to at least 30-35 mph. depending on the degree of mixing
heights, we could see winds gusting to 40 mph at times. temperatures
at 925mb warm to 18-21c and highs look to reach 65-75 degrees. the
morning will be dry with rain holding off until moisture starts to
increase ahead of the cold front late afternoon. low pressure passes
just south of lake erie during the afternoon and pulls a strong cold
front south across the area as a shortwave moves through the flow
aloft. dewpoints and low level moisture will again be a limiting
factor and soundings look to remain capped until evening. a few
thunderstorms could develop along the front during the evening as
its moving south out of the area.

strong cold advection will follow sunday night into monday as 850mb
temperatures fall by nearly 20 degrees. temperatures on monday will
be approximately 30 degrees cooler on monday with potentially a
brief shower before high pressure builds in.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/... mainly vfr ceilings
are expected for this taf update and through friday afternoon. a
cold front will move in late in the taf period with an increase
in cloud cover. mvfr ceilings will likely move into eri towards
the end of the time period. have included -shra for cle, cak,
yng, and eri after 14z through the end of the taf period.

winds will briefly become light and variable this evening before
becoming southerly and increasing to 8 to 14 knots by early
friday morning. a low level jet will move over the area early
friday morning, resulting in a period of llws due to 2000ft agl
winds to 45 to 50 knots. winds will increase by a few knots by
mid-morning friday with gusts to 25 to 30 knots anticipated as
once mixing develops. the llws risk will diminish as gusts
increase.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain showers low ceilings on
sunday.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds will persist through this evening before
winds shift to the south/southwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots
friday morning. winds may briefly meet small craft advisory criteria
in the eastern basin at some point friday morning or early friday
afternoon, but conditions will likely be very brief if they occur so
opted against issuing a small craft advisory at this time. winds
will become northwesterly and diminish to 6 to 12 knots friday
evening with light and variable winds developing for saturday. on
sunday morning, winds will become southwesterly at around 10 knots
before shifting to the north/northwest behind a cold front sunday
evening. small craft advisories will likely be needed as winds/waves
increase through monday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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120
fxus63 kiwx 192329
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
729 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

.key messages...

- large temperature swings are expected through next week with
highs ranging from the 40s to the 70s.

- overall dry pattern through next week with just a low chance
of rain on sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 214 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

typical spring temperature roller coaster is the main story for this
package as our region continues to reside between strong western
conus ridge and persistent quebec troughing. general w/nw flow on
the downstream side of strong ridge also portends an overall dry
period but there will be a few chances for light precip with the
more robust clipper systems. morning showers driven by initial
waa/isentropic ascent have now exited our eastern cwa and expect dry
conditions through tonight. next shortwave arrives by late tonight
though with increasing warm/moist air advection aloft and tightening
surface gradient. this should keep lows around 40f. best midlevel
cva and left exit upper jet forcing bypasses to our ne during the
day friday. trailing cold front could spark a few sprinkles
(particularly east) but chances for measureable precip appear very
low given ne displacement of forcing and relatively dry/stable
environment. even latest nbm pulled back on slight chance pop`s and
have therefore capped forecast at 10% everywhere. temps ahead of
this cold front will surge into the low 70s across our southern
zones while an earlier passage keeps highs in the 50s across mi. it
will also be on the breezy side ahead of the front with gusts up to
30 mph once diurnal mixing kicks in.

temps drop into the 30s fri night but rebound quickly on sat, well
into the 60s as surface anticyclone shifts se and waa increases
again. highs on sun surge near 80f ahead of the next system with a
brief period of strong/deep sw flow. very similar system with better
forcing passing to the ne but chances for rain are a little better
with this system given some better moisture and stronger ascent.
could even be a few thunderstorms but severe risk is very low. temps
plummet again behind the system with highs on mon only in the 40s.
some additional low chances for light precip next week but overall
dry pattern persists with temps climbing near 70f once again by
thu.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 727 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

a theta-e plume passes through the area between now and friday
evening with a cold front pushing through midday friday into the
afternoon. plenty of dry air causes a dry frontal passage and will
keep flight conditions in vfr as a result. winds gradually veer
through the period with southeast winds becoming southwest in the
morning and becoming northwest during the afternoon. because the
front is already bisecting the area around midday, mixing likely is
stunted at sbn, but given this timing, it is possible that fwa
gets into favorable mixing. this allows the best chance for 25
kt gusts to be at fwa. while llws may be possible, it`s
residence time and intensity appears too low to include in these
tafs.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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867
fxus63 kdtx 200409
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1209 am edt fri mar 20 2026

.key messages...

- warmer conditions friday, with a chance of rain showers.

- above average temperatures will persist into the weekend.

- rain chances on sunday with a rain snow mix possible in the thumb.

- no indications for an arctic air outbreak during the next 7 days.

&&

.aviation...

an upper level short wave and associated sfc low will track from
upper mi early this morning into se mi and ern ontario late this
morning and early afternoon. strengthening sw wind fields atop a
shallow nighttime stable layer will remain supportive of low level
wind shear during roughly the 08z to 14z time frame before daytime
mixing transitions conditions to gusty winds at the surface. ample
dry air in the low levels will warrant low probabilities for rain
showers this morning as the upper wave advances across the region,
with ceilings remaining high (vfr) based. as the surface low and
associated cold front depart southeast of the area this afternoon,
shallow post frontal cold air and moisture advection will result in
an expanding mvfr based stratus deck.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning. high this afternoon
and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 229 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

record breaking high amplitude ridge over the western united states
will result in a northwest flow regime for the great lakes region
friday and this weekend. generally looking at minor forecast
concerns over the coming days with the most pertinent of challenges
being the swings in the temperature forecast locally with the
baroclinic zone wavering in vicinity of southeast michigan.

quiet weather with a few breaks in the clouds early this evening as
synoptic scale subsidence and surface high pressure pushes through
the area. upper level jet exit region spreads into the northern
great lakes late tonight opening the door to midlevel warm
advection. favorable synoptic lift in combination with embedded
shortwave energy will support a clipper/area of surface low pressure
tracking from the straits at 12z fri to toronto by 18z. warm
midlevel air mass, 900mb temperatures of +12-13c, pushes across
southern portions of the area supports an all rain forecast. dry air
and subsaturation in the lowest 9.0 kft agl yields lower confidence
in rainfall amounts, less than a tenth. the forecast pops range from
60% likelies in the thumb to 20 percent for much of metro detroit.
better support for rainfall exists across ontario and perhaps the
eastern cwa for a time between 12-18z friday. highs are tricky with
the surface cold front along the irish hills axis at 18z pushing
southward through metro detroit during the afternoon.

the surface front is forecasted to backdoor southward clearing the
region into portions of iowa and illinois friday night. big question
is then what temperatures can moderate to on saturday especially
with expected cloud cover. latest guidance was a little cooler for
saturday highs; but additional downward adjustments are likely needed
especially locations adjacent to the lakes.

deep midlevel trough and change in orientation to upper level jet
axis is expected to result in a frontal wave pushing through lower
michigan sunday. there is a converging of global model solutions for
a frontal timing sunday midday/afternoon. very warm midlevel
temperatures are again expected with 850mb temperatures of +16 or
+17c. post front precipitation may changeover to snow for a time but
warm ground will likely limit much of impactful accumulation outside
of the thumb. pops for sunday currently reside in the high chance,
40-55 percent range.

a large area of stable high pressure is anticipated for the
beginning of the next work week. cold nighttime temperatures are
expected to warm into the 40s with full sunshine.

marine...

a weak ridge of high pressure takes brief residence through late
today as a frontal boundary washes out overhead. northwest wind
becomes light this evening before organizing out of the southeast
early friday morning in response to a clipper system, reaching a
peak around 15 to 20 kt. this system tracks across northern lake
huron friday morning, bringing a quick round of rain and snow
overnight into the first half of friday. winds shift to north and
northwest in its wake at around 10 to 15 kt, then weaken into
saturday as high pressure builds back in. a strong cold front sinks
across the region on sunday with gusty northeast wind of 20 to 30 kt
developing behind it. probability for gales remains low, but small
craft advisories will likely be needed across southern lake huron
due to wave heights around or above 4 feet. expansive high pressure
builds in behind the front on monday, then the next cold front is
expected on tuesday.

prev discussion...
issued at 213 pm edt thu mar 19 2026

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...cb
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.