Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
741 am edt wed oct 28 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather continue
through saturday, outside of any isolated rain showers thursday
night. rain chances return sunday and into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

high pressure off the new england coast will allow for dry
weather to continue today into much of the day on thursday.
southerly return flow will allow for high temperatures to warm
into the 70s, well above normal for late october. high
temperatures may challenge record highs for thursday, see
climate section below for more information.

a cold front will enter the region from the northwest thursday
evening accompanied by weak forcing aloft. latest hi-res
guidance has increased precipitation chances across northwest
ohio though the highest chances (40-60%) remain localized to
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

high pressure returns friday into saturday allowing for another
window of dry weather. temperatures will be slightly cooler, but
remain above normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s
and 50s.

the weather pattern takes a turn sunday into next
week with rain chances returning sunday. rain chances look to
linger into next week.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions with mid-and-high level clouds will continue
across the region this morning before clearing out by the
afternoon. winds will shift to a general south to southwest
direction as high pressure moves off the east coast. with highs
expected in the 70s next to a 60 degree lake erie and a weak
pressure gradient over the region, a modified lake breeze may
develop for keri and kcle this afternoon. winds will return to a
southwest direction for thursday and increase with the warm air
advection.

outlook...non-vfr will be possible on sunday with rain showers.

&&

.marine...
winds remain offshore 5-10 knots through tonight, becoming light
and variable at times. southerly to southwesterly winds will
increase to 10-15 knots tonight into thursday before shifting
northwesterly to northerly behind a cold front thursday
evening. choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central
basin remain possible behind the frontal passage. high pressure
returns friday and saturday allowing for northerly to
northeasterly winds to remain 10 knots or less.

&&

.climate...
we are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on
thursday. here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on october 29th:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt wed oct 28 2026

.key messages...

- warm and dry today with highs in the mid 70s.

- very light rain is possible on thursday followed by slightly
cooler temperatures.

- more rain is possible over the weekend with the best chances
on sunday but forecast confidence for this period remains low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 226 am edt wed oct 28 2026

another warm and tranquil day as ridge rebuilds behind departing
shortwave responsible for current mid/high clouds and virga.
these clouds will scatter during the day and highs climb into
the mid 70s for most given some light sw flow/waa. mild
overnight lows expected given increasing sw gradient and clouds
ahead of the next cold front. only mid 50s expected in our nw
zones. as previously mentioned, this cold front will feature a
moderate prefrontal theta-e surge (thanks to a 30-40 kt llj)
capable of finally moistening very dry/stable airmass that has
been in place for quite some time. however, better mid and upper
level dynamics remain displaced well to our north. decent
1000-850mb convergence within a moderate theta-e ridge will be
enough to spark a narrow line of light showers on thu but total
rain amounts will be very light (a few hundredths at best). the
best chances will be in our northwest where better moisture and
forcing reside. areas south of us-24 likely remain dry. no
thunderstorms expected given virtually no instability so overall
no impacts anticipated. postfrontal airmass is cooler but not
particularly cold given it is almost halloween. lows thu night
dip near 40f with highs on fri in the 60s (still above normal).

forecast details for the weekend and early next week remain
uncertain. a subtropical pacific jet streak/shortwave lifts into
the region in piecemeal fashion over the weekend followed by
the eastward ejection (in some fashion) of a pacific northwest
upper low. this is a convoluted mid/upper level pattern
evolution that models are still struggling with immensely. the
initial shortwave and theta-e surge could bring some light rain
to our w/nw counties early sat but cva and moisture advection
are both very meager. any rain will be light and it could easily
remain entirely dry. these low chance pop`s extend into the
early evening. some light sprinkles can`t be entirely ruled out
for sat evening activities but overall impacts should be
minimal. better rain chances arrive on sun but even this is no
slam dunk. several guidance sources suggest the main trough and
better moisture pass just to our s/se. attention then turns to
large upper low migrating across the country. models continue to
show an incredibly high degree of spread with how this upper
low evolves. expect we will get some more widespread/moderate
rain out of it at some point but timing is very up in the air.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 640 am edt wed oct 28 2026

midlevel clouds associated with passing shortwave will slowly
scatter through the day. dry low levels will ensure vfr through
the period. clouds increase again thursday morning as a cold
front approaches the region but any impact will be after this
forecast period. winds remain 10 kts or less.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 281053
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
653 am edt wed oct 28 2026

.key messages...

- mild temperatures return today and continue thursday with highs in
the 70s. these high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

- there is a chance of showers thursday afternoon and thursday night.

- dry and continued mild friday.

&&

.aviation...

early morning observations indicate a warm front extending eastward
from midwest low pressure to very near the west end of lake erie at
forecast issuance. easterly flow just ahead of the front and off the
lake lifted surface td into the lower 50s at ktol and kttf which
presents a short time window for mvfr fog/stratus as mid level
clouds strip away and before the front moves quickly northward. sw
surface wind traces the onset of vfr warm sector conditions under
patchy mid and high clouds and late day shallow cumulus. these
clouds also exit eastward or dissipate leaving clear sky and mild sw
wind this evening. the eastern fringe of mid level clouds associated
with the midwest cold move in late tonight and the cold front
approaches the mbs area toward sunrise thursday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less early this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 am edt wed oct 28 2026

discussion...

much above normal temperatures today as highs reach into the lower
70s behind a warm front lifting northward through michigan. normal
highs for the end of october are in the upper 50s so we`ll be 10-15
degrees above normal. the front is running up against a very dry
airmass with the persistent surface ridging that has been over the
region for several days now so will pass with little in the way of
showers. there were a few overnight over sw lower aided by a
eastward tracking mid level wave, but were not able to drift much
eastward into se mi. surface ridge will be sliding southeast through
the day keeping us on the western side of it with increasingly
southwesterly flow. this added warm air advection will help
stabilize the airmass and provide the added boost in temperatures
over the mid to upper 60s we`ve been experiencing.

best chance of rain in a couple weeks comes thursday as a low coming
together over the canadian plains tracks east across ontario within
an increasingly more zonal mid level flow pattern. models have been
pretty consistent with this system, showing a strong low level jet
flaring up across ia and wi tonight with the stacked mid level wave
and surface low over western lake superior produce a good coverage
of showers and thunderstorms tonight. the forcing will get pulled
north of the area as the system progresses east so by the time the
cold front makes it to se mi we`ll have the decreasing llj at around
35 knots with a narrow corridor of theta e and fgen. mid level lapse
rates are not overly impressive in the 6 c/km range with most models
offering no cape. pwats do jump up to around an inch with the ribbon
of moisture ahead of the front so could still see some showers.
we`re continuing with a chance of showers thursday across the area
with mainly a 30-40 pop resulting in less than a tenth of qpf.

high pressure builds in from canada behind the front bringing cooler
temps (850mb around 7-8c) and dry conditions friday. highs friday
will be in the low 60s with lows both thursday and friday nights
dipping into the upper 30s for many locations. as the ridge tried to
become re-established across the plains heading into the weekend,
there is remnants of a southern stream wave drifting into the ohio
valley which will push a warm front back near the state line. gfs is
much more bullish on the strength of this feature that the ecmwf, so
at this point will expect increasing clouds with the front nearby
and possibility of some showers saturday near the state line.
overall the ridging will keep the region mild with above normal max
temps in the 60s most of the forecast.

marine...

winds veer easterly in the wake of a warm front this morning with
modest speeds (10-15 knots) over lake huron, but gradient winds
should be weaker (less than 10 knots) across the southern waterways.
the post-frontal environment favors headline-free marine conditions
through this evening with minimal gustiness as forecast soundings
reveal adequate low-level stability. a cold front will approach the
straits tonight, and then track across the remaining waterways on
thursday. a stronger wind field will accompany this boundary with a
post-frontal shift to northwesterly flow. gales are unlikely as the
supporting low-level winds appear out of phase with the inevitable
stability adjustments from ensuing cold advection. however, a period
of small craft advisory gusts and/or wave heights could develop for
the portions of the southern lake huron nearshore zones. high
pressure then builds in for friday and saturday which eventually
results in weaker winds. models diverge in the placement and track
of a low pressure system early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.