Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
615 am edt mon oct 5 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no major forecast changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather and generally seasonable temperatures are
expected this week. patchy frost is possible tonight into early
tuesday morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
canadian high pressure will build over the region today,
delivering dry weather and cooler temperatures to the area for
the start of the week. temperatures will generally be in the low
to mid 60s today with highs warming by a couple of degrees
during the day tuesday. radiational cooling will be most
efficient with the high directly overhead tonight and widespread
lows in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees are expected with
locally warmer temps likely along the immediate lakeshore.
typical cold spots across interior ne oh and nw pa will likely
dip into the mid 30s, although there`s still some potential for
scattered cloud cover which would limit frost coverage. have
held off on the issuance on a frost advisory at this point since
coverage should be scattered, but will reassess throughout the
day.

temperatures will warm further on wednesday as the high shifts
east and a warm front crosses the area. the next cold front will
push across the area towards the end of the week, but guidance
favors a dry frontal passage.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions will continue tonight. winds will become
northwesterly 5 to 12 knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots for
cle, cak, yng and eri during the late morning and afternoon
hours. winds will relax to 5 knots or less by this evening.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected most of this week.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves of 3 to 5 feet are
expected east of the islands this morning before winds and waves
gradually diminish/subside from west to east this afternoon
into early this evening. small craft advisories remain in
effect, although winds and waves may remain elevated in the far
eastern basin into this evening, which may necessitate a brief
expansion in the advisory east of conneaut. otherwise,
conditions will improve tonight. by tuesday morning, winds will
be out of the southwest at 10 knots or less before increasing to
15 to 20 knots as a cold front slowly approaches from the west
during the day wednesday. small craft advisories may be needed
for portions of the lake wednesday. guidance favors west winds
around 10 to 15 knots late wednesday through late week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez144-
145.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
529 am edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- primarily dry conditions are expected through this work week.

- after starting out with slightly below normal high temps,
highs slightly above normal take over for the end of the work
week.

- cold tuesday morning with lows dipping down to the 30s for
some areas north of us-6.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 426 am edt mon oct 5 2026

pretty uneventful period this week with the biggest impacts
being the cool, brisk mornings with patches of light fog/mist
possible each morning. the coldest morning is expected overnight
tonight into tuesday morning with lows in the low 40s to upper
30s especially north of us-6. a few patches of light frost
especially on metal vehicles or roof tops may be possible in
these same areas but at this time dew points look to stay warm
enough for mainly dew covering of surfaces. will continue to
monitor as stated previously if a bit drier airmass is able to
push far enough south into the area that lower lows would be
possible. still stressing that if you have temperature sensitive
plants/animals it would be best to protect them out of an
abundance of caution.

dry conditions continue through the work week and next chances
of precipitation look to come by late weekend. high
temperatures this week will start out below normal and trend
warmer through the week to more slightly above normal levels
(low to mid 70s). just for reference current normal high
temperatures at fort wayne is currently at 69 degrees and 67 for
south bend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 529 am edt mon oct 5 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
448 am edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures today with highs only near 60 and lows
falling into the 30s. chance for frost is possible tonight
particularly over the saginaw valley/thumb.

- more seasonably average temperatures return for the midweek period
with little to no rain chances.

- much above normal temperatures possible by next sunday.

&&

.aviation...

mostly clear skies today, although the continued northwest flow will
likely be able to support few-sct vfr clouds during the day from
time to time. diurnal mixing will extend the boundary layer to
support some gusty winds to 20 knots. winds quickly die off early
this evening as high pressure arrives, supporting clear skies
(outside of some high clouds toward sunrise tuesday).

d21/dtw convection...

thunderstorms are not forecast through the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 325 am edt mon oct 5 2026

discussion...

lagged sub 700mb dry air advection will pick up throughout the
morning hours as flow trajectories now become increasingly
anticyclonic. while not easily discernible in the surface
observations, a significant 850mb dewpoint gradient will work across
the area in the 12-15z time window that will be correlated with
active subsidence and deepening isentropic downglide. rising 1000-
500mb geopotential heights will support a stable surface anticyclone
that will build directly across lower michigan today and tonight.
below normal temperatures despite full insolation with highs this
afternoon near 60 degrees. calm wind environment brings the
potential for a good radiative cooling night tonight that could
allow temperatures to drop down well into the 30s. one item of note
is very strong warm advection that will occur immediately upstream
of lake michigan overnight, where some warm advection cloud could
survive and spill down towards southeast michigan. probabilistic
output suggests probabilities of reaching less than 37 degrees is at
approximately 30-40% only after 4am tuesday morning. will defer any
frost headlines to future shifts.

the warm advection arrives for tuesday with no upper level jet
forcing and no shortwave energy of note. forecast soundings show
very poor moisture increasing with the warm front aloft that also
exhibits very poor lapse rates. preference is with a dry forecast
for the middle of the week as best synoptic scale lift support rides
north of lake huron. middle 60s for highs on tuesday with highs then
reaching the low 70s wednesday. trough wavelength increases
significantly late wednesday and thursday that will essentially
carve out a cold front over or to the south of lower michigan.
static stability is forecasted to remain relatively high above 10.0
kft agl despite some modest uptick in lower level thetae. could see
some sprinkles or some accas/altocumulus wednesday afternoon.

persistence forecast looks good for the end of the week with dry
conditions and daytime temperatures reaching the upper 60s. a great
stretch of prototypical autumn weather before a significant ridging
and warming potential occurs by day 7 next sunday.

marine...

northwest cold advection is ongoing this morning as 850 mb temps
drop slightly below zero over northern lake huron. with water temps
around 60 degrees f, this leads to favorable mixing depths reaching
around 850 mb. brief, isolated marginal gusts to gales look likely
over northern lake huron, but the cold advection is quickly
exhausted and the pressure gradient rapidly diminishes this
afternoon, supporting winds under 30 knots for the afternoon. small
craft advisories continue for outer saginaw bay to harbor beach, as
port hope observation is supportive of gusts to 25 knots early this
morning. winds quickly diminish further in the evening as a large
area of high pressure builds over the central great lakes tonight.

a strong southwest warm advection pattern kicks in on tuesday, and
wind gusts around 30 knots are likely be day`s end, even as 850 mb
temps rising into the upper single digits. small craft advisories
will likely be needed for at least saginaw bay.

the main low tracks through northern ontario and into central quebec
by wednesday evening, dragging a cold front through the great lakes
region. another solid cold advection blast expected, but northwest
wind gusts only look to top out in the 20 to 30 knot range.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...cb
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.