Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
309
fxus61 kcle 180647
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
247 am edt thu jun 18 2026

.what has changed...
isolated showers continue to move east across the area this
morning, but the severe threat has ended. gusty winds will
continue to ramp up this morning and persist for much of today.

&&

.key messages...
1) west-southwesterly winds will remain gusty through into this
evening with gusts as high as 40 mph. a wind advisory remains
in effect for the eastern lakeshore counties where wind gusts up
to 50 mph are possible.

2) periodic showers are possible through the weekend with this
greatest chance sunday into early next week. below average
temperatures are expected to stick around.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as a strong low pressure system drifts towards new england and
the associated upper level trough axis pushes east of the area,
a surface trough is expected to persist over the area today. the
resultant increased gradient over the area coupled with a strong
llj of 40-50 knots will result in widespread breezy conditions
today. currently forecast is sustained winds through today of 20
to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. the exception is across the
eastern lake erie lakeshore counties where localized gusts up to
50 mph are possible given further enhancement from downsloping.
initial winds this morning will be from the southwest before
backing this afternoon to be more west-northwesterly. there is a
bit of uncertainty with how much the daytime heating will
enhance mixing which may ultimately result in an over-performing
wind event across the area. will continue to monitor trends
through this afternoon in the wind field for any additional
headlines needed. given the time of year and leafed out trees,
these widespread gusty winds do have the potential to topple
trees and result in power outages. the good news is this event
will be fairly short as winds quickly diminish near sunset
tonight to become 5-10 mph.

key message 2...
behind the departing cold front this morning, a caa regime will
develop and persist into next week. this will result in
widespread below average temperatures as highs primarily linger
in the 70s with overnight lows cooling into the 50s. this colder
air will also bring the potential for light lake enhanced
showers to impact areas downstream of lake erie late today into
the overnight hours. primarily dry weather is expected for
friday and saturday before another round of synoptically driven
precipitation arrives late sunday into monday.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
scattered convection continues to push east across the area,
primarily impacting the far eastern terminals at this point.
there is a potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the remainder of the area over the next few
hours, but overall extent and impact is expected to remain
limited. behind these departing showers and cold front, a period
of lower mvfr ceilings will move across terminals. these
ceilings should begin to lift early this morning, becoming
widespread vfr by mid to late morning.

the primary aviation concern for this taf period is the strong
forecast winds expected at all terminals as a strong llj move
over the area. southwest winds of 15-20 knots will gradually
back to west-northwesterly this afternoon. through 00z friday,
all terminals will experience wind gusts of 25-35 knots.
conditions will gradually improve this evening, eventually
becoming west-southwest winds of 5-10 knots after 00z.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr will
continue through friday.

&&

.marine...
hazardous marine conditions are expected today as a strong low
pressure system gradually pushes east towards new england. the
increased gradient over the area will result in strong southwest
winds 20-25 knots early this morning, increasing to 30-35 knots
west-southwest gales by late morning as the cold front pushes
east. these strong winds will result in waves along the
lakeshore building to 6-8 feet across the central and eastern
basins, where slightly weaker winds in the western basin will
keep waves to 4-6 feet. either way, these high winds and
building waves will result in the development of strong rip
currents and will also be hazardous to small ships. as a result,
a small craft advisory remains in effect for the western basin
with a gale warning elsewhere and the entire lakeshore has a
beach hazards statement given the high risk of rip currents. all
hazards will expire this evening. in addition, the strong
southwest flow will result in water levels falling in the
western basin. these levels are expected to fall below the
critical mark for safe navigation which is currently 13 inches.
a low water advisory has been issued for the western basin as
well.

by tonight, marine conditions should gradually begin to improve
with northwest winds weakening to 10-15 knots and waves falling
to 3 feet or less. these winds will veer a bit on friday,
becoming more westerly and increasing to 15-20 knots during the
afternoon hours. this may build waves across the central and
eastern basins to near 4 feet and require a short fused small
craft advisory before calm conditions return friday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through this evening for ohz003-007-
009>012-089.
wind advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ohz011>014-089.
pa...beach hazards statement through this evening for paz001.
wind advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez142>144.
low water advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning until 6 pm edt this evening for lez145>149-
165>169.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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424
fxus63 kiwx 180518
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
118 am edt thu jun 18 2026

.key messages...

- cool and breezy today with highs around 70 and gusts up to 30 mph.

- light rain is possible today and saturday. more widespread
moderate rain is expected on sunday.

- cool weather persists into next week with periodic low
rainfall chances.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 118 am edt thu jun 18 2026

990mb surface low now pulling into the lower great lakes. tight wnw
gradient in its wake will yield breezy conditions today with gusts
25-30 mph through the afternoon (highest ne). lagging midlevel vort
max and low level cyclonic flow will support a few showers this
morning (again best chances ne half) but won`t amount to much. cool
wnw flow persists for quite a while and will keep highs in the 70s
much of this period. another weak shortwave passes on sat with a few
showers likely but weak forcing and limited moisture will keep
coverage limited and amounts light.

a much stronger wave crosses the region on sunday. good right
entrance jet dynamics and midlevel cva will support a good low level
response with 40+ kt llj, strong moisture convergence, and decent
cyclogenesis for june standards. a swath of 1-2" of rain is likely
with this system though models still oscillating in exact track.
will have to keep an eye on instability values south of the low
track given obvious high shear but for now paltry midlevel lapse
rates and overall cool environment with low 60s surface dewpoints
suggest a limited severe risk. more cool weather then continues into
next week with a few low chances for light rain depending on
shortwave tracks.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 118 am edt thu jun 18 2026

a brief break in mvfr stratus is expected through the early
morning before caa finally arrives 12-15z. this caa will support
more widespread mvfr ceilings, particularly at ksbn where fuel-
alternate is likely for a time. ceilings slowly lift through
the afternoon and return to vfr by around 21z. wnw winds gust up
to 25 kts through midafternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through this evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through this evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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091
fxus63 kdtx 180802
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
402 am edt thu jun 18 2026

.key messages...

- breezy today with westerly wind gusts of up to 35 mph with a few
isolated showers possible.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the rest of
the week, and into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

nocturnal convection is beginning to wind down early this morning as
highly anomalous 990 mb surface low pressure (for june) starts to
exit, tracking eastward across northern lower michigan and into lake
huron. goes channel 9 shows the mid-level dry slot spreading
northward across the cwa, which effectively concludes lingering
elevated showers approaching the lakeshore. the widespread tendency
for ascent generated by left exit region jet dynamics has long
departed, and in the absence of meaningful elevated instability,
remnant mcs/outflow convection has struggled to gain significant
depth.

cyclonic influence does persist today in the wake of the
circulation, presenting isolated shower potential through the
afternoon hours. forecast soundings reflect drier mid levels, with
even some evidence of warming, but post-frontal boundary-layer lapse
rates appear to steepen. this develops from weak cold advection
amidst wnw flow, but shallow convective depths preclude any thunder
concerns. although the 120+ knot 300 mb jet core winds ought to
reside just south of the michigan/ohio state line, a low-level jet
of 30-45 knots should overlap much of the forecast area during the
day. this favors gusts in excess of 35 mph at times, with the higher
frequency/magnitude across the southern half of the region.
stabilizing ridging/high pressure works in by this evening, ending
the potential for showers and weakening the wind field. mostly clear
and cooler tonight.

low amplitude shortwave ridging offers the highest confidence in a
dry day on friday, at least until tuesday. a bit warmer, with 850 mb
temperatures around 10c, suggesting highs near 70f, but with a
diurnal/insolation boost for some into the mid 70s. weak
trough/perturbation within the longwave trough and its surface
reflection pass over lower michigan saturday. waning pacific
moisture marginally helps improve a sub-saturated column, but
steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates north of i-69 could be enough to
touch off some convective showers during the afternoon hours. to the
south, warmer and more stable profiles suggest greater inhibition,
but models lack a well defined spatial signal with this activity.

weak aggregate high pressure emerges on sunday, preceding a speed
max ejecting across the plains and into the ohio valley, perhaps
collocated with an mcs. mid-range guidance is in favorable agreement
with timing and track of this wave, such that the bulk of the
rain/storm activity should be reserved for the southern half of the
cwa. still some potential for a northward extension late sunday into
monday, and a northern stream upper low could affect the evolution
of the wave trajectory. highs could return to near-normal mid-week.

&&

.marine...

a strong low pressure system will continue to depart from lake huron
into quebec today. passage of this system will work to reorient
winds from the west-northwest through the morning and afternoon
hours. an extension of the strong low level jet will hold across
lake erie, possibly north into lake st. clair, and coupled with
slightly better mixing depths, brings a window to see some elevated
gust potential around 30 knots this morning. some isolated gust to
gales cannot be ruled out leading into the afternoon. breezy
conditions to continue this afternoon and early evening with gusts
ranging between 25 to 30 knots. small craft advisories remain in
effect for all nearshore locations. isolated to scattered rain
showers will also remain possible with rain chances diminishing this
evening. a ridge of high pressure will fill in through friday which
will relax wind speeds for most locations. some elevated winds will
be likely through northern lake huron given the northwest fetch.
periodic rain chances will be possible over the weekend including a
low chance for an isolated thunderstorm as multiple upper-level
waves cross over the state.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1252 am edt thu jun 18 2026

aviation...

deep low pressure exiting central lake michigan will pivot across
the saginaw valley overnight. strong forcing for ascent will
continue to generate showers and thunderstorms, with this activity
expected to wane in intensity/coverage between 06z and 09z. the most
persistent storms will continue to track in the mbs vicinity with
more scattered coverage elsewhere. mvfr ceilings prevail overnight
with a period of ifr possible around mbs as the center of the low
tracks through. the cold front clears the area by around 12z, with
gusty westerly wind to around 30 kt ensuing through the rest of the
day. scattered light showers will be possible through the day but
low confidence on timing and brevity of any impact to flight
category precludes a mention in the taf. mvfr ceilings will
gradually lift to vfr by the evening before scattering tonight.

d21/dtw convection...scattered showers will continue to lift across
the airspace over the next several hours with potential for a rumble
of thunder.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5kft overnight and thursday.

* low for thunderstorms early this morning.

* low for crosswind operations thursday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......am
aviation.....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.