Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
261
fxus61 kcle 091949
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
249 pm est mon nov 9 2026

.what has changed...
minimal changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and somewhat mild weather is expected through midweek.

2) cooler with unsettled weather returning late week. while snow may
mix in at times starting friday, impactful accumulations are rather
unlikely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface high pressure will continue to largely influence the
forecast through the first half of this week. low pressure tracking
east across ontario into quebec will drag a cold front across the
region on tuesday. not anticipating any rain chances with this cold
front. lows tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s for
most, low to mid 30s for inland locations in northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. mild tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s across the region. cooler again on tuesday night with lows
in the low to mid 30s, upper 30s closer to the lakeshore.

key message 2...
dry and mild conditions will come to an end wednesday into thursday
as a large upper trough and embedded shortwaves move into the
eastern conus. precipitation chances increase wednesday afternoon
onward as surface low pressure pushes eastward into the lower ohio
valley from the central plains. precipitation type will initially
begin as rain wednesday night into thursday. with the introduction
of cooler air aloft (850mb temperatures dipping between -4 and -7c
by thursday night), there is the potential for some wet snow flakes
to mix in with rain thursday night into friday.

the low will exit to the east and introduce steady northerly flow
coupled with plenty of low level moisture and additional shortwaves
aloft. this will bring a prolonged period of lake effect rain/snow
showers downwind of the lakes friday into the weekend. overall, snow
accumulations look minimal and confined to higher elevation
locations across northwest pennsylvania. an area of high pressure
will move overhead from the west, but lake effect showers will
likely continue into early next week as low level moisture will be
slow to decrease.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
lake effect clouds linger across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through this evening, with periodic mvfr ceilings
possible at keri over the next several hours. once clouds
dissipate, vfr conditions expected through the rest of the taf
period with occasional upper-level cirrus.

northwest winds of 6-10 knots gradually dissipate to around 5
knots by late this evening. winds quickly become southwest
shortly after sunset following the passage of a warm front,
gradually increasing to around 6-10 knots. a cold front swings
through during the day tuesday, with winds becoming westerly and
then nearly northwest by tuesday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr will be likely with low stratus ceilings and
periods of rain showers wednesday night through saturday. some
wet snow showers may also be possible late week along with gusty
winds up to 35 mph.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds will continue to diminish through this evening
as high pressure builds overhead. wave heights remain elevated
offshore erie county, pa so extended the small craft advisory
until 7 pm this evening. there will be a brief window this
evening and overnight of sub-advisory winds and waves before
southwesterly winds increase to 15-25 knots early tuesday as a
cold front moves east across the lake. wave heights will build
to 3-6 feet across the central and eastern basin nearshore zones
by tuesday morning. another set of small craft advisories will
be needed for tuesday. winds and waves will fall below small
craft criteria by late tuesday night with light and variable
flow over the lake anticipated for wednesday.

next round of rough conditions on the lake will come thursday
and friday as northeast winds increase to 20-30 knots as a
strong low pressure system crosses south of lake erie across the
lower ohio valley. additional marine headlines will be needed
for this late week system with a non-zero chance of a brief
period of gale force winds possible.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
969
fxus63 kiwx 091933
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
233 pm est mon nov 9 2026

.key messages...

- remaining dry with above normal temperatures into tuesday.

- a chance for rain (40-70%) late wednesday into thursday.

- cooler weather and lingering chances for lake effect showers into
thursday night and friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 210 pm est mon nov 9 2026

mild weather will continue through tuesday with slightly above
normal temperatures and dry conditions due to a large surface
high pushing up from the south. mostly clear skies tonight will
allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s. it will not be
quite as cold as last night since southwest winds will
contribute to better boundary layer mixing. this should also
keep fog and frost from forming. winds will diminish
considerable though by tuesday night to near calm, and
radiational cooling will drop temperatures into the mid 30s. the
hrrr is also indicating a large area of dense fog developing
across the region on wednesday morning, which may require
advisories.

a deep trough then moves across the midwest on wednesday,
bringing rain to the local area by late afternoon and evening.
the accompanying cold front will also bring breezy north winds
going into thursday. this northerly flow will result in lake
effect rain showers, and then possibly snow showers on thursday
night and friday. right now it is too early to tell exactly how
much snow will fall, but with the recent warm weather, roadways
should stay warm enough for little to no accumulation. while it
will remain cool on friday, temps will rise into the low 40s,
causing subsequent melting. showers should taper off on saturday
as the large scale low advects farther east of the region and
high pressure builds back in from the west. dry weather is then
expected on sunday and monday with gradually warming
temperatures. mondays highs are forecast to be back in the mid
50s again.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1226 pm est mon nov 9 2026

vfr conditions will prevail with only a few high cirrus over the
next 24 hours. there will probably be some patchy ground fog
again on tuesday morning, but confidence is low that it will
impact the terminals, so left out of the forecast for now. light
southwest winds will shift west-northwest on tuesday with the
passage of a weak cold front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...cobb
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
903
fxus63 kdtx 092017
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
317 pm est mon nov 9 2026

.key messages...

- sunshine with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to lower
60s tomorrow.

- rain chances increase late wednesday into thursday, with an
unsettled pattern continuing into the first half of the weekend.

- a much colder airmass arrives thursday, triggering lake effect
rain and snow showers late thursday through saturday.

&&

.discussion...

mild start to the week, followed by a cold and raw end to the work
week.

an upper-level ridge axis over the central great lakes region this
afternoon will slide east, allowing a weak, moisture-starved cold
front/trough to cross southeast michigan tuesday morning. despite
low-level winds veering to the west-northwest tuesday afternoon, a
dry antecedent airmass (mean rh around 30% in the 1000-500 mb layer)
and early november insolation will support highs reaching around 60
to the lower 60s, aided by 925 mb temperatures warming to near 10 c
across southern areas.

the primary focus for the medium-range period remains a significant
pattern shift slated for the late week, as a full-latitude longwave
trough develops over the eastern conus. upper-level energy and
associated 6-hour height falls tracking through the pacific
northwest this evening will translate into the western ohio valley
by late wednesday, influenced and steered by a high-latitude upper-
level wave/500 mb low progged to dig aggressively southward out of
the quebec/hudson bay region wednesday into thursday. a sharp cold
front tied to the initial height falls will cross se mi late
wednesday night into thursday, abruptly ending the mild stretch.
behind the front, deep northwest flow will usher in an unseasonably
cold arctic-sourced airmass, driving robust caa that drops 850 mb
temperatures to around -8 c by friday. periodic pulses of synoptic-
scale ascent will traverse the region through late week via pockets
of pva tied to secondary shortwaves pinwheeling around the primary
closed low.

locally, the most impactful sensible weather will stem from the lake
response. the arrival of the cold pool aloft will steepen low-to-mid-
level lapse rates and foster deep convective mixing. with lake huron
surface temperatures hovering around 10-12 c, over-water thermal
differentials will reach around 20 c, generating lake-induced cape
of 300-600 j/kg and inversion heights climbing well above 800 mb.
this setup supports a prolonged period of lake-effect precipitation
thursday through saturday. thursday looks to feature the most
widespread coverage, as brisk northeast low-level flow drives showers
well inland. local probabilistic guidance indicates wind gusts to 30
mph thursday, making ambient temperatures in the 40s feel
considerably colder. given the thermal profile, daytime precipitation
will favor a rain/melting snow mix late, transitioning primarily to
wet/melting snow showers during the overnight and morning hours. as
low-level winds back more north-northwest to northwest friday into
saturday, the most organized banding will reorient toward the thumb
and eastern tier, though diurnal snow/graupel showers will still
scatter inland under the core of the cold pool. there is some
potential for light snow accumulation thursday night into friday
should wet-bulb zero heights descend to 1,000 ft agl or below.
guidance indicates a sharp thermal boundary, with marine influences
holding wet-bulb zero heights at or above 2,000 ft along the
immediate eastern thumb shoreline. probabilistic guidance suggests
predominantly melting snow on paved surfaces, though chances (<30%)
for minor accumulations exist and have been trending slightly upward.
specifics remain difficult to pin down this far out given the
borderline boundary-layer thermal structure.

heights slowly rebound over the weekend as sprawling surface high
pressure over the western great lakes/ohio valley slides eastward.
large-scale subsidence will cap convective depths and shut down lake-
effect activity, with 850 mb temperatures moderating toward 0 c by
sunday afternoon. mostly clear skies and light winds sunday night
will provide ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing minimum
temperatures to drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.marine...

stabilizing shortwave ridging has allowed high pressure influence to
briefly build into the central great lakes this afternoon. gradient
flow responds accordingly, weakening and backing southwesterly.
troughing is then set to return late tonight into tuesday as the
next clipper tracks southeastward across ontario. its attendant cold
front leads to a west-northwesterly wind shift with an uptick in
speeds. the frontal passage should be dry frontal, with renewed
improvements to mixing depths due to cold air advection and mild
water temperatures. cannot rule out an occasional post-frontal gale-
force gust over portions of the northern huron basin, but coverage
and frequency appear too limited to warrant any gale-related
headlines. a small craft advisory may still be needed for the thumb
nearshores given a brief wave response. the progressive pattern
continues tuesday night into wednesday as high pressure temporarily
returns with weaker winds and lower wave heights. progressive
shortwave troughing aloft delivers a dose of showery weather
wednesday, followed by deepening surface low pressure over the ohio
valley into thursday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1222 pm est mon nov 9 2026

aviation...

marginal mvfr / low-end vfr ceilings continue to mix out across the
thumb region this afternoon, with mbs/fnt/ptk/det now west of the
remaining stratus. these ceilings will continue to erode through
this afternoon, with high clouds streaming in from the northwest.
northwest winds will back this afternoon and evening, becoming
southwesterly by/around 00z as high pressure to our south crests the
region. late tonight through tuesday, low pressure will track east
across ontario and into quebec, sending a dry cold front across
southeast michigan. along the front, winds will shift from southwest
to west-northwest with fropa expected between 09-12z tuesday. some
shallow boundary layer moisture lingers into the overnight hours,
with some guidance hinting at a narrow window for shallow br to
develop. this narrow window will rely heavily on the departure of
overnight mid/high clouds and how much time is left for an uptick in
nocturnal cooling before/around sunrise.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.