Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
314
fxus61 kcle 191804
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
204 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

.what has changed...
a freeze warning has been issued for the entire area for tonight
into monday morning. some brief snow is expected late tonight in
ne oh and nw pa; any accumulations will be negligible.

&&

.key messages...
1) a colder than normal air mass is entering the region,
allowing for temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal for the
third week of april. frost and freeze headlines are in effect
and will be needed through monday night with the cold air.

2) scattered rain chances will continue this morning and tonight
with some changeover to snow overnight. little snow accumulation
is expected in ne oh and nw pa.

3) the pattern will return to warmer weather starting on
tuesday. there will be a window for showers and storms to return
on tuesday night and wednesday; the severe potential for storms
is low.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a deep upper trough is entering the great lakes region and
bringing a colder than normal air mass into the area. 850 mb
temperatures will dip to around -11 c and that will translate to
high temperatures remaining steady in the 40s today with low
temperatures tonight falling into the 20s for most with lower
30s near lake erie. the freeze watch has been upgraded to a
freeze warning. high pressure entering from the northwest for
monday will dry out weather but keep temperatures cool in the
40s. low temperatures will again be in the 20s and 30s and
another freeze warning will likely be needed.

key message 2...
with the upper trough moving through the region, this feature
will provide lift for additional rounds of showers this morning
and tonight. for this morning, a strong southwesterly jet will
move through aloft and support rain showers through daybreak.
for this afternoon and tonight the main upper trough axis will
approach with a secondary surface cold front and allow for
another round of showers to develop. tonight, showers will
transition to lake enhanced showers with -8 to -11c at 850 mb
moving over an 8 to 10 c lake. given the lake instability, the
rain could be convective and come with graupel/small hail with
the falling freezing levels. eventually, precipitation will
transition to some snow. snow ratios should be low with snow
favoring a more graupel-style vs. large dendrites. surface and
pavement temperature remain well above freezing and will need
time to allow for accumulations, which is unlikely given the
brief window for precipitation. therefore, will have just little
accumulation in the forecast with no impacts expected at this
time. high pressure entering from the northwest for monday will
dry out the atmosphere and back winds through the day, ending
the rain/snow threat.

key message 3...
a large ridge will enter the central us on tuesday and expand
east into the great lakes region. temperatures will moderate
once again into the 70s and eventually 80s later in the week,
bringing back a late spring feeling. a weak trough will overtop
this ridge and allow a weak cold front into the region on
tuesday night into wednesday. this front will bring the
potential for scattered showers and storms. both timing and
dynamics with this system appear unfavorable for severe weather
at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
scattered showers are developing ahead of a trough that will
swing across lake erie this evening. the showers will be light
this afternoon, but they will be very difficult to time, so
added a broad period of vcsh. a more concentrated period of
rain showers even mixing with snow is expected across north
central and ne ohio this evening as the trough crosses the area,
so added prevailing shra for this at kmfd, kcle, kcak, kyng, and
keri. the rain and snow will be more scattered farther west.
periods of mvfr will occur in the heaviest precip, and cannot
rule out brief ifr. the steadiest rain and snow showers will
exit in the 03-06z timeframe, but scattered lake-effect snow
showers will continue at kcle, kmfd, kcak, kyng, and keri
through tonight before ending monday morning. mainly vfr is
expected at these sites overnight, but brief drops could occur
in any heavier bursts of snow.

wnw winds of 15-20 knots will occasionally gust to 30 knots this
afternoon before turning nw behind the trough this evening and
gradually diminishing. nw winds will decrease to 5-10 knots
tonight and monday morning.


outlook...non-vfr possible tuesday night and wednesday in rain
showers.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories are in effect for the entire near shore
water today. winds will be from the west 15 to 20 knots with
gusts up to 30 knots and waves up to 4 feet. winds will become
northwesterly around 10 knots tonight and monday. southerly
winds will return late monday night 10 to 15 knots. winds will
increase from the south on tuesday 15 to 20 knots. we get close
to sca headlines again on tuesday with the offshore flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez142-
147>149.
small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
lez143>146.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...garuckas
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
072
fxus63 kiwx 191844
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
244 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

.key messages...

- freeze conditions expected tonight with lows from mid 20s to
around 30.

- low chances of rain return for tuesday night but only light
precipitation amounts are expected which will not have a
significant impact on flooding concerns.

- after a cool start to the week, temperatures trend warmer
starting tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 244 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a strong upper level vort
max dropping southeast across the western great lakes. low levels
have mixed out nicely in advance of this feature with dew points
bottoming out to around 20 degrees in spots. these low level dew
point trends should make instability a bit more of a struggle with
max sfc based capes expected around 100 j/kg for a few hours this
afternoon. despite limited instability, would expect a few higher
based showers to develop given strength of mid/upper level forcing
and a strong mid level cold pool (-18 to 20 deg c at 700 mb). some
enhancement to frontal convergence with flow off lake michigan could
help initiate these showers, and these low rain chances should be
progressive from west to east following the stronger vorticity
advection with the upper trough. given large dew point depressions,
any rainfall amounts will be light.

some low clouds may linger into this evening downwind of lake
michigan with some weak lake response possible, but otherwise
clearing skies are expected as a broad low level anticyclone
eventually shifts across the region overnight. the orientation
of the low level thermal trough from southeast canada into the
eastern great lakes and portions of the ohio valley still
suggests coldest mins in mid 20s across south central lower
michigan into far northwest ohio. confidence is still on the
high side that all areas should be below freezing for mins
tonight, so no changes planned to the freeze warning at this
time.

monday will be a quiet transition as southern great lakes/ohio
valley become positioned in upper level inflection zone between
eastern conus trough/western conus ridge. broad synoptic scale
subsidence in this pattern will provide mostly clear skies with
below normal temperatures continuing. some patchy frost is possible
again monday night across the far east, but given departure of low
level ridge axis, low level gradient should be strong enough during
the overnight hours into tuesday morning to limit this potential.

tuesday will feature a better mixing day as low level southwest flow
increases downstream of a weak, low amplitude northwest flow
short wave trough and the low level ridge axis shifts off the
mid atlantic coast. breezy/windy conditions are expected on
tuesday and deep mixing combined with stronger waa should lead
to above normal temps back into low-mid 70s for most locations.
a southward sagging frontal boundary tuesday night and some
pooling of moisture in pre-frontal zone should lead to some
light rain showers shifting north to south across the area
tuesday evening, but precip amounts should be less than one
quarter of an inch.

for the remainder of the work week, medium range guidance does
suggest more significant western conus troughing developing but
this will occur in the backdrop of a somewhat stable longwave
pattern with only a slow eastern progression of central conus
upper ridge. this evolution should keep primary
moisture/instability axis west of the local area on thursday
with likely cold frontal passage as system occludes well to the
northwest across northern plains/south central canada. rain
showers and perhaps a few storms may accompany this front. much
above normal temps thursday and friday will give way to more
seasonable temperatures by early next weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 130 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

a strong upper vort lobe will drop across the region this
afternoon. good low level mixing and dry airmass has led to sfc
dew points bottoming out this afternoon. this should limit
strength of surface based instability. given strength of vort
lobe and strong mid level cold pool would still expect
isolated-scattered showers to progress through northeast indiana
but will be short-lived if they occur and in a brief temporal
window from 19z to 23z. winds will relax this evening with loss
of boundary layer mixing, eventually becoming light and
variable as a broad low level anticyclone drops across the great
lakes and ohio valley.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...freeze warning from midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight to 11 am
edt /10 am cdt/ monday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...freeze warning from midnight tonight to 11 am edt monday for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...freeze warning from midnight tonight to 11 am edt monday for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
681
fxus63 kdtx 191726
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
126 pm edt sun apr 19 2026

.key messages...

- scattered rain and/or snow showers this afternoon and evening with
gusts above 30 mph at times; a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled
out.

- a freeze warning is in effect tonight for most of southeast michigan
with lows in the 20s.

- temperatures warm back toward normal tuesday, climbing well above normal
through the rest of the week.

&&

.aviation...

high based, widely scattered showers have developed across all of
southeast michigan this afternoon. beneath these high based showers
and ceilings, steep low-level lapse rates have allowed for robust
mixing to develop and continue to favor west to northwest winds with
gusts of 25-30 knots. throughout the afternoon and evening hours,
west winds will gradually become northwesterly as a weak cold front
drops south across the area.

wind gusts in excess of 30 knots are possible, especially with more
robust shower activity. given the thermal profiles, more robust
showers may end up a mix of graupel/rain and/or wet snowflakes.
while we still cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, the best chance
for a thunderstorm this afternoon appears to be in the vicinity of
kdet and areas to the northeast where surface convergence along the
surface front will be maximized.

tonight, clearing skies are expected with light northwest winds as
high pressure moves into the region. northwest flow continues into
monday, then winds gradually back westerly and southerly as high
pressure continues to move east of the region late monday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low to medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through the
evening.

* very low for a rumble of thunder this afternoon until 23z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 am edt sun apr 19 2026

discussion...

satellite trends this morning show a definitive back edge to the
clouds with clearing working into the forecast area. morning
sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds. not making any changes
to the temperature forecast but temperatures today may be a touch
mild, conditional to the radiational cooling that occurs ahead of
sunrise.

composite h3-h5 trough axis and associated absolute vorticity
maximum will track directly over southeast michigan this afternoon.
plan views of 300mb winds depict an additional northern stream
jetlet merger into the broader left entrance region over the eastern
contiguous us resulting in ageostrophy and increased 850mb
frontogenesis over southeast michigan between 17-23z. cooling aloft
provided by the shortwave in combination with minor low level thetae
advection is expected to result in steep lapse rates from the lcl at
6.0 kft agl upwards to 17.0 kft agl. given the dynamics and the
relatively high convective depths, feeling is that coverage of
shower activity will be fairly high. therefore, intermittent
cellular showers are anticipated this afternoon and increased pops
to greater than 60 percent for most of the area. saturation through
the dgz does bring the potential for some melting snowflakes
particularly north of metro detroit, but the more likely scenario
for mixed phase precipitation is brief graupel/snow pellets. cloud
ice supports a potential for lightning see spc swody1. inverted v
supports gusty wind potential with the showers, perhaps 30 to 40 mph
possible.

stout cold air advection with polar air mass brings high confidence
and high certainty that surface temperatures will drop into the
middle to upper 20s after midnight tonight. nbm provides an
interquartile range on temperatures late tonight of between 23 to 30
degrees. with collaboration considerations, upgraded to a freeze
warning from 11 pm this evening until 11 am monday morning.

strong 1000-500mb geopotential height rises and confluence aloft
will support high pressure on monday with ridging persisting into the
daytime on tuesday. cool, below normal temperatures (40s) are
expected monday before moderating significantly tuesday afternoon
(60s). warm advection in combination with exit region dynamics may
provide enough ascent for some scattered shower activity
particularly over the southern forecast area tuesday evening/night.
the current forecast has slight chance pops south of detroit.

high amplitude ridge is forecasted to build into much of eastern
north america for the end of the week. a notable warming trend with
upper 70s temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s possible.

not the highest of confidence in the deterministic solution space
for next weekend as recent model runs are suggesting more progressive
weather across the great lakes. huge sensible weather variance
exists across the region as timing and southward extent to occlusion
of central united states low pressure system will matter. for now,
the cold front is forecasted to push into southeast michigan friday
night and saturday morning per ecmwf and gfs.

marine...

a persistent pressure gradient maintains breezy westerly wind
through the morning. a cold front tracks across the area this
afternoon, bringing a chance for rain/snow showers and potential for
a rumble of thunder. small craft advisories remain in effect during
the day for lake st. clair and western lake erie where the westerly
flow ahead of the front will become gusty to around 25 kt. behind
the front, wind shifts northwest and gradually increases to the 20
to 30 kt range across lake huron tonight. additional small craft
advisories go into effect this evening for the lake huron nearshore
waters as wave heights build over 4 feet. high pressure builds
directly into the great lakes on monday allowing winds and waves to
subside. gusty south wind then develops monday night into tuesday
ahead of the next cold front tracking across the upper midwest.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt monday for
miz053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt monday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....ja
discussion...cb
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.