Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
319
fxus61 kcle 142344
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
644 pm est sat nov 14 2026

.what has changed...
there are no forecast changes with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect rain/snow showers are expected to continue
through sunday.


2) high pressure will build in for much of next week with
drier, seasonable weather expected. temperatures may rise above
normal by late next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper level trough remains over the the northeast conus and
eastern great lakes region this afternoon. a cold northerly
will continue over the eastern great lakes today through early
sunday. scattered lake effect rain showers, mixing with wet snow
at times, will continue across the snowbelt of northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania this afternoon through early sunday.
little to no accumulation is expected with the wet snow. drier
air will start to move into the area later on sunday which will
shut off the lake effect precip. high temperatures today and
sunday will be in the 40s. tonight`s low temperatures will be
in the lower to middle 30s.

key message 2...
high pressure will build over the region early next week and
linger through the end of the week. mostly quiet and dry weather
is in the forecast through much of the upcoming week. high
temperatures will start out seasonable in the upper 40s to lower
50s. by the middle and end of the week, high temperatures will
be above average in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
mainly mvfr across the taf sites this evening, though a narrow
pocket of ifr ceilings remains at yng. this area of ifr is
expected to gradually diminish over the next several hours,
though there is a small chance that this narrow ifr swath could
pivot southwest and impact cak later tonight. low confidence
precludes ifr mention for cak at this time. otherwise, mainly
tracking vfr vsby lake effect rain showers, though occasional
rasn mixing remains possible. ceilings may begin to gradually
improve to low-end vfr towards the end of the taf period.

winds are generally out of the west to northwest this evening,
7 to 12 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots, mainly at
cle/eri. winds will remain out of the west to northwest through
the taf period, 7 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through monday in low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories will remain in effect from the islands
east to conneaut oh through late sunday morning and from
conneaut oh to ripley ny until early sunday morning. winds will
be from the northwest 15 to 25 knots today into tonight.
northwest winds will relax 10 to 15 knots later on sunday and
continue into sunday night. winds will shift from the west 10
knots or less on monday. by tuesday, winds will become
southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots. similar flow will
persist through wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 4 am est sunday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
251
fxus63 kiwx 142315
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 pm est sat nov 14 2026

.key messages...

- scattered lake effect rain showers and drizzle gradually taper
off this evening.

- below normal temperatures continue through the weekend,
followed by moderating temperatures into the low to mid 60s by
the end of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1240 pm est sat nov 14 2026

with the north to northwesterly flow in place the pesky lake
effect rain showers and drizzle will continue into this evening
and areas near lake michigan may still see a few light rain
showers/sprinkles into late tonight as drier air is entrained on
the eastern side of the high amplitude ridging that is slowly
moving eastward into the region. however, lake effect clouds
will stick around through most of the day sunday. temperatures
on sunday will remain cool with high temperatures remaining
mostly in the mid to upper 40s with the clouds keeping solar
insolation in check.

but as the ridging continues to push eastward into the area a
gradual warming trend will commence monday onward with slight
warming each day along with decreasing cloud cover into the
beginning of the work week. highs monday through wednesday will
warm into the 50s, and by thursday high temperatures will get
back into the low to mid 60s into the weekend. a bit of
uncertainty in the longer term as guidance is rather quick to
break down the high amplitude ridging over the central conus
which may be too progressive with this type of pattern.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 615 pm est sat nov 14 2026

lake effect rain showers have are diminishing in coverage and
intensity this evening. high pressure centered over eastern
iowa appears to be disrupting inversion heights, and low-level
dry air entrainment is noted on forecast soundings. water vapor
shows one more spoke of vorticity slicing south across the lake,
likely aiding -shra near south haven (klwa) as of this writing.
steady southward progression of this -shra threatens ksbn
within the next couple of hours.

otherwise, at kfwa, -shra will be ending within this 23z hour
and an area of clearing is noted across south-central michigan.
this increases confidence in a return to vfr conditions prior
to 06z. at both sites, high pressure promotes wind through the
period of less than 10 knots.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
418
fxus63 kdtx 150008
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
708 pm est sat nov 14 2026

.key messages...

- a narrow corridor of lake effect rain showers (briefly mixed with
melting snow) persists into tonight, mainly along the southern lake
huron shoreline.

- mostly cloudy skies expected through the weekend.

- dry weather expected area-wide monday through thursday with a
steady warming trend.

&&

.aviation...

inbound high pressure will try and scatter out the persistent low
stratus into tonight with some break in the clouds noticeable on
satellite. however, the maintenance of the nw flow and the cold
airmass should support at least moderate to high coverage of lake
clouds through tomorrow morning. thus, mvfr ceilings are expected to
prevail through the tonight period with help from a subsidence
inversion. high pressure will try to break up high clouds tomorrow,
but diurnal heating will again work to maintain higher degree of
coverage throughout much of tomorrow afternoon. there may be some
ceiling improvement to vfr late tomorrow afternoon, but confidence
is not high.

for dtw... persistent nw wind will maintain mvfr ceiling with some
variability in bkn to ovc into tonight and through sunday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet through tonight and
tomorrow morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm est sat nov 14 2026

discussion...

broad mid-upper trough centered over the eastern great lakes remains
the primary driver of local sensible weather through tonight. ample
lake moisture flux within northwesterly flow maintains robust
coverage of low cloud this evening through tonight. while embedded
ripples of vorticity rounding the trough could squeeze low level
moisture fields just enough for a couple light showers/drizzle this
evening, vast majority stay dry for the rest of the day. these
localized vort maxes are expected to reinvigorate ongoing lake
effect showers along the southern basin of lake huron late evening-
tonight however. while initially (through this evening) the eastern
thumb would reside along their westernmost fringe, there is a window
overnight into early sunday morning where lower level winds develop
a more northerly component, tied to reorganization of the upper
trough over the st lawrence seaway, allowing activity to push deeper
into the thumb. precip remains all rain for the lakeshore areas
given the relatively mild lake huron. in the event showers shift
further inland tonight, even these areas are favored to stay mostly
or all rain as column saturation is confined sub 6kft well below the
dgz hampering ice nuclei formation.

sunday is the transition day between departing eastern conus
troughing and approaching central conus ridging. lingering lake
effect showers along southern lake huron gradually wind down over
the course of the day as increasing subsidence and weak warm
advection from midwestern surface high pressure work into se mi.
weakening winds slow the pace lingering low level moisture is
scoured out though, resulting in persistent cloudier skies and highs
still capped in the 40s.

first half of the new work week is governed by ridging which is
firmly in place across the great lakes by this point. steady
moderation in temperatures each day can be expected as above normal
highs in the 50s return. influence of high pressure also leads to
mostly sunny skies and modest southwesterly winds setting up a
pleasant stretch of weather. next chances for rain don`t arrive
until late week as a desert southwest shortwave eventually reaches
the northern great lakes. that said, how much if any rain se mi
could see is tied to how far north the wave tracks.

marine...

cool northwesterly flow will persist tonight which maintains the
breezy conditions across lake huron. gusts ranging between 20 to 30
knots will be likely through midnight. lingering rain showers will
also be possible across the southern lake huron basin. high pressure
will then begin spreading across the great lakes tomorrow morning,
which will result in rapidly decreasing wind speeds in the morning
hours. by the late afternoon and evening hours, light winds will
have settled in as high pressure situates over the great lakes.
southwest flow will become established by monday once this high
pressure progresses east. this will bring some localized stronger
winds through the saginaw bay into central lake huron, but overall
dry weather and lighter wind speeds are expected into the midweek
period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est sunday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.