Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
742 am edt tue aug 4 2026

.what has changed...
there were no impactful changes made to the forecast this
morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions continue today before a series of low pressure
systems mark the return of showers and thunderstorms chances
wednesday afternoon through late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will linger into wednesday, keeping dry conditions
and plenty of sunshine across the area. as this high pressure
drifts east midweek, a weak low pressure system centered near
the gulf coast will move north into the ohio valley. this system
will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the eastern
portion of the cwa wednesday afternoon into the evening. given
the positioning of the low and the higher pwat axis further
east, there remains a decent chance that the bulk of the area
remains dry. given the overall weak forcing with this system,
not anticipating any severe weather at this point.

late wednesday into thursday, a broad upper level trough and
associated frontal boundary will approach the area from the
west. this frontal boundary will be slow moving and potentially
stall near the area until pushing east on friday. as a result,
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
thursday and friday. the confidence in any severe threat is low
at this point given the discrepancies in timing amongst models,
but increasing dew points and daytime instability keep that
potential around for the end of the week. in addition, will need
to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall as mean flow
is expected to be near parallel to the frontal boundary which
could result in periods of training showers. given the expected
pwat values and deep warm cloud layer, can also expect any
storms that develop to be associated with efficient rainfall
rates. wpc has highlighted the entire area in a marginal ero for
thursday into friday. the chance of showers will linger into the
weekend as additional disturbances push across the area,
although full spatial extent and timing remains uncertain.

through the weekend, temperatures will remain near normal for
this time of year with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s
and overnight lows cooling into the 60s.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
patchy fog with mvfr visibilities at 12z will improve
within the hour, followed by mostly sunny skies for the
remainder of today. high pressure over the region will maintain
light wind conditions with lake/land breeze circulations through
tonight. eri can expect a wind shift off the lake around 16z
and closer to 18z at cle. scattered clouds will begin to arrive
tonight as moisture increases. winds will be 8 knots or less
through the period.

outlook...periods of showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
conditions will develop across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania wednesday afternoon and evening. showers, and
occasional storms, will become more widespread across the region
thursday, and continue into the weekend.

&&

.marine...
generally light wind conditions expected this week with speeds
of 15 knots or less. high pressure overhead today with result in
a lake breeze with north to northeast winds. as the high shifts
east on wednesday, lake breezes can be expected from about
lorain eastward. thunderstorm chances return thursday into the
weekend and could result in erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
706 am edt tue aug 4 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions today into wednesday. expect partly to mostly
clear skies and light winds. highs will range from 81 to 87
degrees, warmest wednesday. patchy fog this morning will
diminish after sunrise.

- chances (40-80 percent) for showers and storms return
wednesday evening and persist into friday. heavy rain is
possible. severe weather is not expected. high temperatures
will be in the upper 70s and 80s.

- low chances for showers and storms saturday into tuesday(20-40
percent). the best chances are sunday night into tuesday.
severe weather is not expected. high temperatures will be in
the 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 504 am edt tue aug 4 2026

an upper level ridge/sfc high pressure builds in today and lingers
through wed. because of this, we have a nice break in active weather
through wednesday, with partly to mostly clear skies, light winds,
and highs in the 80s. patchy fog is possible early this morning, but
should improve shortly after sunrise.

next chance for showers and storms looks to be wed evening,
continuing through early next week. our upper level ridge drifts
eastward and a broad trough stemming from a closed low over hudson
bay takes hold of the great lakes region. a cold front will move in
from nw to se, stalling along the southern border of our cwa by
saturday morning. we`ll see return flow around high pressure over
the atlantic bring moisture from the gulf into the area during this
time. have around a 40-80 percent chance for showers and storms wed
pm into friday, which is when chances begin to dwindle from nw to
se. heavy rain is possible. severe weather is not expected at this
time. with the front stalling south of the cwa, we could end up dry
saturday outside of low 20 percent chances or so in the vicinity of
the front. some of the guidance generates precipitation in the
afternoon with an incoming shortwave, but my confidence isn`t too
high in this. highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s.

a couple additional waves move through the slightly troughed/zonal
pattern aloft sunday into tuesday, bringing chances for additional
showers/storms (20-40 percent). the best chances are associated with
the stronger wave on monday into tuesday. highs will be in the
80s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 703 am edt tue aug 4 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals with light winds
and mostly clear skies. some scattered/broken clouds around 5kft
near lake mi that could move into ksbn (have scattered now), but
otherwise quiet weather.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 040949
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
549 am edt tue aug 4 2026

.key messages...

- another sunny and warm day is in store for se mi today.

- the next chance of showers and thunderstorms is on schedule for
wednesday afternoon, mainly in the tri cities area.

- showers and thunderstorms expand across the rest of se mi
wednesday night and thursday. severe intensity is not expected.

- the weekend starts out with dry weather by friday afternoon into
saturday, followed by a chance of showers again by sunday.

&&

.aviation...

dry and stable conditions persist today as high pressure slowly
migrates across the eastern great lakes toward new england. light
wind will emerge out of the south to southwest this morning,
generally holding below 10 kt through the afternoon. potential
exists for few to sct coverage of vfr diurnal cu, otherwise mainly
clear skies prevail. benign conditions overnight with just some high
cloud arriving late, associated with a slow moving cold front over
the midwest.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through wednesday
morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 353 am edt tue aug 4 2026

discussion...

another pleasant day is in store for se mi as high pressure
maintains primary influence while drifting into upstate ny by this
evening. temperatures respond to the core of cooler and less humid
air exiting eastward along with the surface high. full sun and wind
returning sw over the region are able to lift readings into the mid
80s, especially in the tri cities area. the warmer temperatures
occur with typical mid summer humidity as surface td creeps up to
around 60 f most areas by this evening.

after dry and mild conditions tonight, the forecast focus turns to
the broad central canadian low pressure system that is pulling a
cold front slowly into the northern/western great lakes during
wednesday. emphasis is on slowly as model projections show it taking
about 36 hours to move from the west end of lake superior this
morning into central lower mi by wednesday evening. the leading
moisture axis has also been mostly inactive at night due to weak low
level jet forcing as the system approached from the plains sunday
night and into the upper midwest early this morning. that could
change tonight into wednesday morning as upper level jet entrance
region forcing becomes more favorable for larger scale vertical
motion and to support a stronger low to mid level wind field. longer
lasting showers/storms from surface based convection this afternoon
then have a chance to combine with a nocturnal component tonight and
graze the saginaw valley by wednesday afternoon.

the front takes the remainder of wednesday afternoon and night to
make progress into southern lower mi. it does so while a component
of surface based convection develops along and near the boundary as
the broad mid level trough and entrance region of the upper jet
maintain support for larger scale ascent. consensus of 00z regional
and global deterministic models show a generous qpf response to the
favorable larger scale environment focused within the low level
frontal zone that takes all of thursday and much of thursday night
to reach the ohio border. the weak link in the severe storm
parameter space is mainly lower end cape values in an otherwise
respectable sw unidirectional flow. this is in line with the day 3
general thunder outlook with an eye toward a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

the extended range model output gives the front a chance to settle
south of the ohio border by friday morning where it dissipates
during the day. it leaves a tenuous scenario in place for dry
weather friday and saturday while the large closed low remains
anchored over far northern ontario. the system has a chance to
produce another cold front in the great lakes by sunday.

marine...

high pressure influence lingers across the central great lakes today
as the center of the surface ridge slides across appalachia into the
northeast. winds increase throughout the day, taking on a
southwesterly orientation. this is generated by the return flow
configuration and low pressure moving into hudson bay from northern
ontario. an attendant cold front will move in from the west and
briefly stall out over lake huron wednesday. this provides the first
opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms for the latter half
of the week. several disturbances are expected to ripple through
atop the boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through thursday as
the front resumes forward progress toward the southern waterways.
the pressure gradient response appears rather minor through this
period, ensuring low probabilities for any long-fused headlines
before the end of the week. drier weather may briefly return friday
and/or saturday, but the front will stall out again in the vicinity,
keeping low chances for thunder nearby.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.