Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
728 pm edt fri jul 10 2026

.what has changed...
the flood watch has been cancelled for all of nws cleveland forecast
area. the threat of widespread heavy rains and flooding has
decreased significantly.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage this
evening.

2) temperatures will trend warmer by early to mid-next week with
limited precipitation chances.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1... coverage of showers and storms will gradually
decrease after sunset this evening as the cold front sags south,
settling near or just south of the us-30 corridor overnight.
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible overnight into saturday, particularly near the us-30
corridor, as a wave of low pressure tracks east into the ohio
valley.

key message 2... a warmer and drier pattern appears favored by
the end of the weekend through mid-next week as a large upper-
level ridge develops across much of the conus. the eastern
periphery of the ridge may begin to break down towards the end
of the week as an upper-level trough swings east across new
england, though limited precipitation is expected for much of
the week. temperatures will return to above average by as early
as sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, further increasing
into the low to perhaps mid-90s by tuesday and wednesday. will
need to monitor temperature and humidity trends during this
timeframe as heat indices rise into the mid to upper 90s,
yielding at least some pockets of major heat risk on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish through this
evening. inland taf sites may still see a thunderstorm at or
near kyng, kcak, and kmfd. however, this will be a brief threat
and a tempo for ts through 02z. otherwise, locations that
receive heavy rain this afternoon have the potential for fog to
develop overnight. mid and high cloud may hang around through
06z but could see visibilities start to decline late tonight at
mfd/cak/yng. included mvfr visibilities with a tempo for ifr
visibilities. conditions are expected to improve quickly on
saturday morning.

winds have generally been southwesterly ahead of the cold front,
veering to the north/northeast behind the front. winds are out
of the east at tol and north to northeast at cle and eri. winds
will be light and variable overnight.

outlook...vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
a front is pushing south across ohio this afternoon with
northeasterly winds expected on lake erie on saturday. the wind
forecast has trended slightly higher along the south shore of
lake erie and a moderate swim risk expected. conditions will be
choppy but expected to be just below advisory criteria with 2
to 4 foot waves. northeast winds decrease saturday night then
increase again on sunday afternoon with winds around 15 knots
and waves around 2-3 feet.

marine conditions improve monday as high pressure builds
overhead. winds become southwest tuesday and wednesday as high
pressure departs to the southeast. waves generally expected to
be less than 1 foot.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...fz
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
631 pm edt fri jul 10 2026

.key messages...

- widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through early
evening. locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible.

- a few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could occur
south of us-24 on saturday. severe weather is not expected.

- less humid and mainly dry, especially on sunday.

- dry and trending warmer next week with highs into the low to
mid 90s by tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt fri jul 10 2026

a cold front will continue to slide southward from mi through the
area into the overnight tonight. out in front of the front, the nam
has 2000+ j/kg of mucape for storms to feed off of. on the other
hand, the low level jet is south of the area and this keeps any
severe threat limited. additionally, dcape is lower than 1000 j/kg
and any forcing appears to be weak despite the cold front`s
proximity to the area. sfc dew points are between 65 and 70f and 850
mb dew points do surpass 10c so the low level column is moist. as a
result, stronger storms will have to come from outflow boundaries
and cell interactions. gusty winds and heavy rain will be the main
threats.

there is a slight uptick in moisture on saturday despite the cold
front now being south of the area. the nam forms over 1000 j/kg of
cape for rain, but again, the low level jet is nowhere near the
area. behind the cold front, the area is also much drier overall,
but some of the uptick in moisture comes from an mcs that runs west
to east south of our area. think this could still be enough for some
general thunder and showers around, especially south of us-24.

otherwise, especially by sunday, drier air and mid level ridging and
sfc high pressure allows for a reprieve from the active weather with
plenty of sunshine. as the mid level ridging moves eastward, it
actually begins to build over the northern plains and the better
theta-e plume actually comes into the area from the northwest on
tuesday. this is when the high humidity (sfc dew points over 70f)
come in and combine with the better low level temperatures conducive
to 90f highs. there is some chance that the higher dew points are
slightly removed (west of i-69) from where the higher temperatures
reside (east of i-69) so that we actually struggle to achieve heat
headlines. guidance seems to struggle with bringing in high enough
humidity for it, which may be because we`re advecting in an airmass
from the northern plains instead of the gulf area.

by the time we get to the end of next week, the placement of the
peaks of the trough and ridge across the conus will matter in
deciding where ridge riders happen, or even if they do. the ecmwf
has a ridge rider for later thu of next week, whereas the gfs brings
in energy from the gulf region. at least they agree that it`ll rain
somewhere between thu and fri.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 627 pm edt fri jul 10 2026

a stationary front currently located along us 30 will slowly
continue its progression southward tonight and throughout the
day tomorrow. any showers and storms tonight and into saturday
will likely remain south of this boundary along and south of us
24. both kfwa and ksbn are expected to remain dry through the
entire taf period. kfwa is likely to get in on increased cloud
cover and potentially high-end mvfr ceilings around 3000 ft
around daybreak saturday with the stationary front in the
vicinity. currently, the nbm probabilities are about 20-30%.
winds tonight will be from the north, becoming light and
variable overnight. winds tomorrow will be from the east
starting in the morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
805 pm edt fri jul 10 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the
weekend.

- high confidence for above normal temperatures (90+) next week.

&&

.aviation...

dry air and northerly flow will maintain vfr conditions into tonight
as shower activity has largely come to an end this evening. should
mainly see mid-high clouds through much of the night. the nne wind
off the lake brings at least some potential to see the development of
lower ceilings late tonight/tomorrow morning with mbs the favored
location for possible ifr ceilings/fog. confidence is low for this to
occur. by tomorrow afternoon, daytime sct/bkn cumulus should develop
at borderline mvfr ceilings as winds hold out of the nne at 5-10
knots.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet tonight. medium mid-morning
tomorrow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 334 pm edt fri jul 10 2026

discussion...

scattered convective activity is ongoing this afternoon, focused
along/south of a convergence axis which is situated from roughly
lansing-ann arbor-grosse ile. similar to yesterday, these storms are
struggling to gain much height due to the mid-level subsidence
bubble which has limited their intensity and lightning activity.
still, enough uncapped instability in the lowest 15.0 kft agl exists
to keep convective showers and a few thunderstorms going in this
same corridor through the evening. a few of the stronger cells have
exhibited weak rotation as they encounter backed flow near the lake
erie shoreline while mean storm motion is west to east. there is thus a
very low chance of a brief spin up tornado if any constructive storm
interactions can connect with this mid-level rotation. this is a
very low confidence scenario as sub-1 km flow is weak (aob 5 knots)
and storms are struggling to maintain longevity. as instability wanes
and the front continues to sag south, convection comes to an end by
late evening.

high pressure then takes residence this weekend, fully dislodging
the stalled convergence zone south of the state line. this allows a
drier, subsident airmass to expand south into the great lakes.
thermal trough will be centered over quebec/new england, placing se
michigan within a region of neutral/weak cold advection (weak backing
trend in column winds) allowing temperatures to remain seasonable
(mid-80s) through the weekend. northeast flow off of the warm lakes
may lead to some patchy fog or low stratus that mixes into diurnal cu
for the afternoon hours each day.

pattern shift back toward july heat is expected early next week.
this comes as 500mb heights build toward 600 dam over the northern
plains, with the ridge and its associated theta-e axis folding into
the great lakes monday. global models vary in how compact the ridge
is, but agree that it will deflect gulf moisture south of the ohio
valley. dewpoints thus forecast to hold at or below 70 degrees which
combines with highs in the low-mid 90s to push heat indices into the
upper 90s tuesday and possibly wednesday. synoptic pattern points
toward a capped environment early in the week as synoptic systems are
steered around the ridge and away from se michigan. caveat to this
is the less predictable convective influence, which could break down
the ridge at a faster pace or add moisture to the environment that is
not well handled on these larger model scales.

shower and thunderstorm chances then increase mid-late week as the
northern stream low carves into new england. general consensus is
for a more active pattern as the ridge breaks down and mean cloud-
layer winds flip from northeast to northwest. this could put se
michigan in the track of any upstream convection, but will largely
depend on how instability evolves across the midwest/great lakes and
how aggressive the front is. temperatures will still be above normal
as well with highs in the upper 80s-low 90s through the end of the
forecast period.

marine...

the frontal boundary that was stalled near lake st. clair and
western lake erie today will slowly sink southward through the
evening. scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible
through the early evening before conditions dry out. any isolated
storms that do develop may be capable of producing wind gusts in
excess of 34 kts. high pressure will build across the northern
great lakes this afternoon which will maintain north to northeast
winds of 10 to 15 kts for much of the area. gusts may briefly reach
near 20 kt this afternoon across southern lake huron and saginaw bay
due to favorable fetch orientation. the high pressure will sink
further south on saturday and sunday, maintaining benign marine
conditions with light winds that becomes variable as the high passes
overhead.

hydrology...

scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across se michigan
this afternoon and will linger through late this evening. isolated
cells have produced rainfall rates of a half inch to inch per hour
rates, with continued potential for isolated 1" per hour rates
through the evening. with the majority of activity expected to stay
over lenawee and monroe counties, flooding is not expected although
ponding on roadways will be possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mv
marine.......ss
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.