Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
314 am edt tue apr 28 2026

.what has changed...
the wind advisory across the western counties has been allowed to
expire this morning as wind gusts have diminished in intensity.

&&

.key messages...
1) decaying convection will continue to spread east, resulting in
widespread showers and the potential for gusty winds. another round
of showers is possible wednesday.

2) much cooler temperatures arrive midweek and persist through the
weekend. the potential for frost/freeze returns thursday through
saturday nights.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
tonight, a potent low pressure system continue to move northeast
through the midwest. this low pressure system will move a cold front
east across the area today providing additional support for showers
across the entire cwa. current upstream convection continues to
decay as it pushes east into an area with limited instability and a
capped layer. this should limit the severe potential across the
area, with eastern counties likely not even hearing thunder by the
time showers arrive early this morning. although the severe
potential is limited, these ongoing showers and isolated storms are
remaining developed enough to tap into a strong llj of 50-60 knots
that has pushed northeast over the area tonight ahead of the
boundary. this has resulted in periodic wind gusts of 40-50 mph
reaching the surface. given the limited influence from convection
itself, opted to handle the wind potential with a short fused wind
advisory across western counties until 3am. isolated gusts after 3am
remain possible, but should be less frequent in nature and thus the
advisory will be allowed to expire. elsewhere across the area, a
wind advisory will remain in effect until 11am this morning for erie
county, pa as strong southeast winds will become enhanced due to
downsloping and result in wind gusts up to 55 mph possible. periods
of heavy rainfall are possible with this area of showers, especially
in the most well developed cells. given the progressive nature of
the system, not expecting any flooding concerns, although localized
heavy rainfall may result in ponding on roadways and reductions in
visibilities.

winds should die down through this morning as showers begin to end
west to east as the cold front departs. this boundary looks to stall
somewhere east of the area which will become the path that another
low pressure system will move northeast across the ohio river
valley. the cwa will remain on the northern side of this low
pressure system, allowing for the potential for thunder to remain
very low given the much cooler airmass present. heavy rain is
possible as pwats greater than 1" and a very deep moisture layer
will allow for efficient rainfall. there remains limited concern
about the potential for flooding on wednesday as well given the
progressive nature of the low, but rainfall totals between the 2-
days could exceed 1", especially along and south of us30.

key message 2...
after the departure of the two aforementioned low pressure systems,
a canadian high pressure system will become established, allowing
for period of below average temperatures to pursue through the
weekend. high temperatures beginning wednesday will climb into the
50s with overnight lows thursday night through saturday night
falling into the 30s. will have to monitor overall trends in
temperatures as these overnight periods may require a frost headline
as much of the vegetation has already begun to grow across the area.
as always, there are various factors that could contribute to the
potential for frost, including the strength of winds and the impact
of clearing skies allowing the surface to further cool. will
continue to monitor all of these aspects in coming days. in
addition, the cpc has the entire area in an area of below average
temperatures into the first week of may in the 6-10 day outlook.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
remnant convection from an active day west of the area will
continue to track west to east, but have removed most mentions
of thunder as a prevailing condition for the terminals. with the
onset of showers/rain, expect ceilings to drop primarily to
mvfr, and mvfr visibilities should be expected in rain as well.
winds could reach 30-40kts as the cold front approaches, and
with the lingering convection moving through. cold front arrives
around 12z for the western terminals, and should exit to the
east around 21z. winds go from southerly to westerly behind the
front, and will gradually ease towards the end of the taf
period.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
in the wake of a cold front that will track west to east across
lake erie beginning early today, offshore winds 20-30kts will
become westerly later today 10-15kts and wave heights decreasing
to 1-3ft in the nearshore and open water zones. another area of
low pressure that will move southwest to northeast just south of
the lake will bring winds onshore wednesday and wednesday night
10-20 kts with wave heights 2-4ft, then easing to 10-15kts
thursday and wave heights 1-3ft. these conditions will persist
through friday, and then winds become westerly 10-15kts for the
weekend, but wave height results are nearly the same in the
1-3ft range.


&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory until 11 am edt this morning for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt tue apr 28 2026

.key messages...

- lingering showers and scattered thunderstorms have moved east
out of northwest ohio early this morning.

- cooler wednesday through saturday with highs around 50 to near 60
degrees.

- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.

- light rain possible sunday night through tuesday. additional
flooding from this rain not expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 356 am edt tue apr 28 2026

a strong upper level trof that was supporting active weather north
of the ohio river was generating showers and scattered thunderstorms
that had been moving across the area last night and early this
morning. at the time of this writing, the activity had moved east
out of northwest ohio. additional development is not expected today.
another in the series of upper level disturbances will bring
additional showers tonight into wednesday. the rainfall amounts
from this activity should be around a half an inch or less.

the gfs model appears to have initialized mass fields well and also
appears to be on track with the timing and the handling of low level
thermal fields. seasonally chilly air will be over the area from
wednesday through saturday. this cold period includes four nights
from wednesday night through saturday night where lows will fall
into the 30s. these cold temperatures are likely to bring widespread
frost. the best chance for freezing temperatures is friday night
when temperatures dip into the lower and middle 30s.

northwest flow will dominate next week. the gfs favors upper level
systems moving southeast in the upper level flow. seasonable
temperatures accompanied by rain at time are ahead next week.
rainfall amounts should be light and are not expected to cause
flooding. high temperatures should reach the upper 60s to around
70 degrees by tuesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 640 am edt tue apr 28 2026

moisture-laden subsidence inversion will likely maintain
stratus into the early afternoon at both terminals, especially
in light of upstream observations. transition to vfr expected by
18z (perhaps an hour or two later at kfwa) as drier air and
mixing finally erode low level moisture. another system then
arrives late tonight with more rain though ceilings will likely
remain just above 3 kft through 12z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
555 am edt tue apr 28 2026

.key messages...

- precipitation chances end this morning with mostly dry conditions
through remainder of the day.

- shower chances return wednesday morning to early afternoon.

- much colder air arrives by late week and holds through the weekend
resulting in frost/freezing potential.

&&

.aviation...

a cold front tracks eastward across the area between 12 and 15z,
marked by a wind shift to w and possibly a few light showers. breezy
westerly wind of around 25 kt and mvfr ceilings prevail through the
rest of the morning. cold and dry air advection should allow ceilings
to lift back to vfr and eventually scatter this afternoon, but
timing the transition carries some uncertainty. weak high pressure
arriving this evening then promotes a decreasing trend to wind
magnitude. mid- level clouds will linger overnight but vfr conditions
are favored.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning. moderate this
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 329 am edt tue apr 28 2026

discussion...

scattered showers are ongoing early this morning with ascent along
the warm front driven by an impressive 50-60 knot lower level jet.
lack of strong instability still precludes severe weather, but any
thunderstorm may still have at least some low potential to bring
down isolated strong wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall. wake low
winds may also lead to isolated gusty winds early this morning.
relatively brief time spent in the warm sector before the systems
cold front sweeps through southeast michigan later this morning as
the main surface low lifts north of lake superior. this maintains
the scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through about 12z
before dry air starts to push into the area. post frontal west winds
will be a gusty to 25-30 mph this afternoon as weak cold advection
supports mixing into around 30 knots of flow. gusts weaken this
evening as lower level flow drops significantly with time. lingering
clouds cover helps keep overnight lows tonight in the 40s.

canadian troughing takes over the region mid-week marking the
beginning to a stretch of below normal temperatures which will carry
into the month may. tomorrow morning will see a deepening surface
low lift through the ohio valley along existing frontal zone.
favorable placement of deformation north of the the low develops
over southeast michigan leading to increasing chance for showers
starting around 09z wednesday morning and lingering into the early
afternoon. highest pops are focused mainly across southern and
eastern southeast michigan.

the main item to note for the late week period into the weekend will
be the frost/freeze potential for a few nights as polar troughing
settles across the great lakes. north-northwest flow will usher in
850mb temperatures down to around -5c by thursday morning, which
will persist around that temperature through saturday night.
currently, thursday night and friday night look to be the coldest
nights given the cloud forecast and the better radiational cooling
potential. outgoing forecast has overnight lows these nights at 32
degrees to 2-3 degrees below. of lesser impact during this time,
will be the potential for periodic isolated lake induced light
precipitation in the form of rain, graupel, and/or wet snowflakes
each day as overlake instability produces higher coverage of clouds
and steepening lapse rates supports this activity. daily high
temperatures thursday through saturday will mostly reside around the
50 degree mark.

marine...

a low pressure system exits lake superior and moves into central
ontario this morning as its expansive low-level wind field migrates
across the central great lakes. a gale warning remains in effect for
the open waters of lake huron, north of sturgeon point. winds within
the lowest levels will decrease through the morning hours causing
lingering occasional gusts to gales to diminish. meanwhile,
inbound/ongoing convection persists until midday as the system`s
warm front surges across the eastern up. the elevated thunderstorms
should augment stability profiles, even as the strongest lower
column flow exits. small craft advisories also remain in effect for
all nearshore waters until at least this afternoon due to persistent
elevated winds/waves. the system`s cold front then crosses through
the waterways late this morning and into the midday period leading
to calmer weather and a shift to northwest flow. high pressure
eventually builds in mid-week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

gale warning until 8 am edt this morning for lhz361>363.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...aa
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.