Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
762
fxus61 kcle 271130
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
730 am edt tue oct 27 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes as quiet weather continues.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather will continue for much of the week with limited rain
chances on thursday night. better chances for rain will not arrive
until late saturday night. much above normal temperatures expected
through this week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure remains spread across the eastern conus allowing for a
continued period of dry weather. slightly cooler today behind a dry
cold front with highs in the mid to upper 60s. southerly return flow
will allow for highs mid to late week to warm into the mid to upper
70s, which is 10-15 degrees above average for late october. a few
sites may approach record high values for october 29th. see the
climate section below for more information.

another cold front will sink south towards the region thursday night
which may bring some rain showers to northeast ohio/northwest
pennsylvania. high pressure returns friday into saturday before rain
chances approach from the west late saturday into sunday. current
timing of this system would indicate a dry halloween night for the
majority of the forecast area.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the taf period with high
pressure entering the region. mid-to-high level clouds will
continue to filter into the region from the west, eventually
allowing for a thin ceiling across the terminals. winds will be
generally east to northeast today, shifting to the south as high
pressure passes to the east for wednesday.

outlook...primarily vfr expected through saturday.

&&

.marine...
northeast to east winds 10-15 knots will continue today with wave
heights 2-4 feet decreasing to 1-3 feet by tonight. high pressure
returns wednesday as winds turn offshore and decrease to 10 knots or
less. southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 10-15 knots
thursday morning ahead of a cold front before shifting northerly 5-
10 knots in the wake of the frontal passage. winds through the
weekend will generally remain northeasterly to easterly at 10 knots
or less under high pressure.

&&

.climate...
date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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067
fxus63 kiwx 270957
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
557 am edt tue oct 27 2026

.key messages...

- warm and dry conditions persist through tomorrow with highs
generally in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

- light rain is possible on thursday. the best chances (50-80%) will
be near lake michigan.

- better chances for widespread rain arrive on sunday but
forecast confidence for this period is low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 146 am edt tue oct 27 2026

yesterday`s frontal boundary has washed out completely across our
area but we do have a brief return to easterly flow this morning.
luckily numerous high clouds, a steady gradient wind and an overall
warmer/drier boundary layer are keeping fog in check. flow veers to
a more s/se direction by this afternoon and highs should recover to
around 70f outside of our far ne. warm/moist air advection then
steadily increases tonight through thu ahead of the next cold front
headed for our area. expect more mid 70s on wed and some upper 70s
possible by thu dependent on exact frontal timing. as previously
mentioned, thursday`s frontal passage will feature a much better
prefrontal llj and theta-e surge, enough to at least partially
offset the incredibly dry and stable airmass that has been in place
for so long. mid/upper level support is still not great this far
south with far better cva and upper jet support over lake superior
and points north. still, enough moisture advection and low level
convergence to generate some very light rain showers with the best
chances near lake michigan thursday afternoon. latest guidance even
suggests a few sprinkles surviving into our se thu evening. no
impacts anticipated though. removed the brief/small nbm thunder
mention given near total lack of instability on forecast soundings.

a return to less extreme warmth fri and sat with highs around 70f. a
very high level of spread still exists among all sources of
deterministic and ensemble guidance for the weekend into next week.
this uncertainty centers around an unusually southward displaced
pacific jet streak/shortwave emanating from the data-sparse regions
off the mexican coast that will eventually lift northeast into our
region. models struggling with this and another upper low that
develops off the northwest u.s. coast. very low confidence regarding
forecast details sat-tue. still think halloween will be mostly dry
for trick-or-treat activities but nbm maintains some low chance
pop`s and can`t entirely rule it out. much better rain chances seem
to arrive sunday with remarkable uncertainty regarding a potential
second system around tuesday of next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 554 am edt tue oct 27 2026

surface anticylcone will sink east/southeast across southeast
canada today which will allow for some veering of low level
winds to the southeast. low level height gradient will remain
weak today with wind speeds at 10 knots or less. some mid level
warm advection in the wake of a mid level ridge axis will likely
persist through the day, and vfr conditions are expected to
hold through this forecast valid period. a southern stream short
wave will lift out of the southern plains today and pass across
southern great lakes tonight. this will be a moisture starved
disturbance with nothing more than continued mid/high level
clouds anticipated.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 270949
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
549 am edt tue oct 27 2026

.key messages...

- dry today with cooler temperatures compared to recent days.

- mild temperatures return through the rest of the week highlighted
by highs around 70 wednesday and in the lower to mid 70s thursday.

- there is a chance of showers thursday afternoon and thursday night.

- dry and continued mild friday.

&&

.aviation...

we remain north of a stalled front with surface high pressure
centered over ontario spread across the great lakes. this will lead
to easterly flow through the period below 10 knots. there will be
plenty of cloud around, mainly mid and high cloud as moisture works
up and over the stalled front. though clouds will mostly be at or
above 10kft, there will be a period early this afternoon where
soundings suggest we could generate some clouds around 4-6kft for a
few hours. another period of clouds under 10kft will be possible
tonight.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 am edt tue oct 27 2026

discussion...

partly sunny conditions as a result of mixed mid and high clouds
characterizes weather across se mi today. the clouds are tied to mid
levels of the shallow frontal zone stalled in the ohio valley this
morning. the entire frontal zone shifts slightly northward this
afternoon, directing the mid level thermal/moisture gradients
farther into northern lower mi. temperatures are primarily
influenced by surface high pressure centered on the ontario/quebec
border supplying a steady east boundary layer wind. cooler air is
reinforced initially this morning, however advection weakens
considerably this afternoon, which allows slightly above normal high
temperatures in the lower 60s south of i-69. mid and upper 50s are
more common toward the tri cities and northern thumb where thicker
clouds last longer and the cool air mass is deeper.

the ohio valley front begins a stronger northward move tonight as
broad low pressure develops in the lee of the rockies and central
canada. now a surface warm front, it reaches the ohio border near
the west end of lake erie late tonight extending into sw lower mi.
href and refs mean surface td rises to around 50 f toward sunrise
with an assist from lake erie and st clair on light se boundary
layer wind. the presence of the warm front and marine moisture
augmentation presents higher probability of fog from the ohio border
up through the northern/western detroit suburbs late tonight and
wednesday morning.

the warm front moves from the ohio valley today, into southern lower
mi late tonight, and then into the northern great lakes wednesday
afternoon while still not generating any rain over the area. model
mean rh and theta-e projections show the shallowness of the front
maintaining more productive isentropic lift over the upper midwest
and northern great lakes. new in the 27/00z models is a southern
stream short wave moving up from the rio grande valley that could
produce a stray shower on its own as the warm front exits wednesday
morning. otherwise, the weather highlight is warm sector high
temperatures rising back up to around 70 for the entire region.
highs in the mid 70s are also still in reach by thursday afternoon,
near records for the date, as the next cold front approaches from
the midwest.

limiting factors for temperatures thursday is clouds and a chance of
showers within the moisture axis that builds in ahead of the cold
front thursday afternoon. the front itself is on schedule for
passage across se mi thursday evening followed by weak high pressure
friday. nbm guidance high temperatures maintain a minimal
temperature drop post front with highs in the 60s friday through the
weekend. the trend to monitor is the strength of an additional
southern stream short wave originating from the split flow long wave
trough during friday. extended range models are in reasonable
agreement on the track but vary in strength on a system moving up
from the rio grande valley while drawing gulf moisture northward for
a chance of showers in the great lakes by sunday.

marine...

winds veer easterly today as high pressure shifts into far western
quebec. influence of high pressure wanes overnight as low pressure
lifts towards the northern great lakes resulting in a further shift
towards southerly. gradient strengthens by thursday as another
low/cold front work into the great lakes supporting gusts to 20-
25kts. while the wind response may be tempered a bit by the warm air
advection across the lakes, the southwest flow may lead to another
round of hazardous conditions to small craft on saginaw bay. cold
front eventually crosses late thursday bringing showers with high
pressure following to close out the week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...bt
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.