Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
461
fxus61 kcle 271846
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
246 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

.what has changed...
a line of broken showers has developed across the eastern portion of
the area. this convection should remain sub-severe into the evening
before departing east.

&&

.key messages...
1) a cold front will keep scattered showers across the eastern part
of the area through this evening.

2) above average temperatures return next week with highs once again
expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front extending roughly from erie, pa southwest to marion, oh
has become the focus for light rain showers developing this
afternoon. a few rumbles of thunder may develop this afternoon as
additional daytime heating increases instability, however given the
overall weak environment across the area, not expecting any of these
to turn severe. behind the aforementioned boundary, an expansive
diurnal cu field has developed, but given limited moisture not
expecting any showers. conditions should dry out by tonight with the
exception for portions of the snowbelt that may get isolated lake
enhanced showers into friday morning.

key message 2...
high pressure is expected to begin to build east into the area on
friday, becoming the dominant weather pattern by saturday. this high
will persist into early next week and should allow for a prolonged
period of dry conditions across northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. in addition, this high will be responsible for
temperatures once again climbing to above average by late this
weekend into early next week. highs are expected to once again climb
into the upper 80s to low 90s with max heat indices in the mid 90s.
overnight lows will remain warm with temperatures only dropping into
the upper 60s to low 70s. a mid week system may impact the area,
ultimately allowing for temperatures to return to near normal by mid
to late week, but given model variations the confidence in the
timing of this is fairly low.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
at 18z a very narrow band of showers extended from near mnn to just
north of cak to near yng and continued into northwest
pennsylvania. a brief shower is possible at cak or yng, mainly
through 20z before pushing south. can not rule out an isolated
thunderstorm but probabilities of occurrence are too low to
include at any terminal. main concern is a brief drop to mvfr
visibilities in heavier showers. otherwise, ceilings will be
primarily vfr this afternoon. skies will clear out tonight and
can not rule out a window of mvfr visibilities in patchy ground
fog at inland terminals. locations closer to lake erie can
expect sct-bkn mvfr clouds to move in off lake erie after 06z.
this will provide the moisture for scattered cumulus clouds to
return on friday. winds will be out of the northwest at 10 knots
or less, becoming northeasterly overnight.

outlook...mainly vfr, but with patchy non-vfr possible in
fog/mist early in the mornings on saturday and sunday.

&&

.marine...
west northwest flow of 5-15 knots on lake erie will decrease
this evening then veer to northeasterly overnight at 5-15 knots.
conditions will be somewhat choppy friday morning with waves of
1 to 3 feet and onshore flow. winds drop off quickly though as
high pressure builds overhead and no advisories are expected.
there will be a low end threat of waterspouts overnight as this
trough crosses lake erie.

good marine conditions are forecast for this weekend with winds
of generally 10 knots or less. a warm front lifts north on
sunday night and southwesterly winds increase into the 5-15
knots at times for monday and tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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888
fxus63 kiwx 271725
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
125 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry the remainder of the afternoon with just a low
chance (10-15%) of a shower.

- seasonable temperatures continue today through saturday, but then
warming and more humid conditions return early next week.

- low chance of showers and thunderstorms return late
weekend/early next week but confidence is low.

- there is a moderate swim risk today for southeast lake
michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 123 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

a rogue shower remains possible through sunset as one more weak
wave passes through the area and interacts with limited
instability (less than 1000 j/kg mucape) and little overall
shear.

otherwise, an extended dry period is possible into next week with
the greatest confidence existing through this weekend on this
occurring. the upper level flow will flatten somewhat and transition
more sw to ne into early next week then more west to east as a
strengthening upper level ridge pushes north. with the ridge axis
remaining south of the region, this still leads to some uncertainty
with regards to weak waves that will pass through the flow. the flow
will reside far enough west into sunday to keep precip chances west
of the area with maybe some slightly better chances for a few
showers or storms during the work week. forecast will remain riddled
with periods of slgt chc to chc pops especially next week as models
struggle to handle each of the waves.

regarding temperatures and humidity, seasonable highs in the lower
80s and somewhat lower humidity settles in for friday and saturday.
warmer and more humid air begins to push back in with highs in the
mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s sunday
into next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1211 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

this afternoon will feature a low sct-bkn vfr cu field and
northwesterly winds up to 10 knots. still can`t rule out a late
day shower, though point chances (<10%) remain too low for a
mention in the taf. vfr with light winds and mainly clear skies
then into tonight as weak sfc ridging builds in. some potential
for a brief period of shallow br/fg again toward daybreak
tomorrow otherwise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
054
fxus63 kdtx 271946
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
346 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures through saturday with mainly dry
conditions.

- a warming trend lifts temperatures above normal sunday through the
middle of next week with increasing chances for showers and
storms.

&&

.discussion...

height rises are underway this afternoon as a departing shortwave
flattens and gets absorbed downstream into the longwave trough/upper
low parked over hudson bay. meanwhile, the next embedded speed max
carves through northern michigan this evening and overnight,
reversing geopotential height trends. weak cva is evident in mid
level progs which could provide sufficient ascent atop shallow
boundary-layer saturation. this might spur a few light
showers/sprinkles into the early overnight hours, mainly over the
thumb where moisture parameters are more favorable. prior to 20z a
lone meso-gamma scale shower (or virga) was noted per kdtx
reflectivity data.

surface high pressure centers over the upper midwest and mid-
mississippi valley converge on lower michigan friday with weakening
northerly flow in the wake of a secondary cold front. this helps
offset high temperatures by a couple of degrees, near or slightly
below 80f as 850 mb temperatures briefly dip into single digit
territory (celsius). high pressure quickly exits across the eastern
great lakes friday night with return flow resulting in gradient
winds flipping southwesterly. a shorter wavelength southern stream
ridge moves across the plains on saturday. dry conditions continue
another day, while a warming trend also gets underway saturday which
should last into the first half of next week. warm advection and
isentropic ascent-driven showers could develop as early as sunday
morning with higher confidence in occurrence for areas north of i-
96. the ridge axis amplifies and centers over the state on monday.
precipitation chances will then be governed by mcs activity until
mid-week as a muggy and unstable air mass situates in the vicinity.

&&

.marine...

a weak secondary cold front is in the process of sinking south
through the central great lakes this evening. frontal passage brings
no real changes to current conditions aside from shifting winds to a
more northerly component. high pressure becomes established over the
region late this evening resulting in diminishing winds and waves.
said high then drifts overhead friday into early saturday
maintaining lighter winds and quiet weather.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1237 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

aviation...

sct-bkn low clouds (3-5 kft) will persist over southeast michigan
this afternoon into early evening. an isolated shower remains
possible, but will mainly confined to the thumb region. surface high
pressure building into the central great lakes through tomorrow will
provide light winds (under 10 knots). some low clouds will likely
persist tonight and tomorrow, but areal extent is difficult to
gauge. expect to remain on the optimistic side with a sct group for
the tafs. short-lived periods of bkn skies remain possible tonight
through tomorrow however (as well as periods of clear skies), but
timing is highly uncertain.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5000 feet.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.