Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
747 pm edt sat may 23 2026

.what has changed...
reduced pops slightly for the evening given recent radar trends.
trended temperatures down in the north and east slightly for both
sunday and monday with lake breezes or flow off the lake.

&&

.key messages...
1.) active weather continues this evening with a few strong to
severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible into early
this evening. rivers are experiencing rises due to the recent
rainfall and a few have exceeded minor flood. a wind advisory
also remains in effect through 2 am sunday for erie county
pennsylvania.

2.) additional showers and thunderstorms are possible late
afternoon through the evening on sunday with conditions drying out
for the memorial day holiday.

3) above normal temperatures in the lower 80s return for tuesday and
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure is located across nw ohio this afternoon and we are
monitoring radar trends as the atmosphere is gradually destabilizing.
only modest instability with ml cape of 200-400 j/kg is
expected across southern portions of the forecast area. shear values
are highest across ne ohio where surface winds are backed more
southeasterly with veering aloft to the southwest with 35-40 knots
at 850mb. hodographs are favorable for rotation if we can get
discrete cells on the leading edge of the showers, generally between
now and 7 pm. this is the window of concern for a short-lived
and generally weak tornado or two before the low departs to the
north and the system occludes. thus far not seeing a sufficient
uptick on radar to be concerned but the window of potentially
stronger activity is just getting started. coverage of storms
has been less than expected today and trended pops downward
slightly with this forecast. storm motion to the northeast could
support some training but eastern portions of the forecast area
did not receive as much rain (~0.50-0.75 inch overnight) and
should be able to handle the rain in the absence of robust
convection.

rivers are rising across portions of the area and minor flooding is
ongoing on killbuck creek and the scioto river at larue. the
heaviest rain last night of 1.5 - 2.5 inches occurred in a swath
from marion/morrow counties northeast towards erie/huron counties in
ohio. we are monitoring rivers in the great lakes basin as well
including both the sandusky river at tiffin and the huron river at
milan which are rising quickly.

key message 2...
the trough over the plains states lifts northeast on sunday. a band
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop upstream and
move into nw ohio late sunday afternoon. in addition, moisture
spreads back north ahead of the trough and could result in
a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main line, generally
after 2 or 3 pm. temperatures do trend warmer on sunday with
southerly flow ahead of a weak area of surface low pressure. modest
instability is expected but tempered by a wind shift off lake erie
later in the afternoon. the heavier rainfall of a half inch to an
inch looks to be across nw ohio but focused north of the heavier
axis from last night which is good. in the wake of this trough, high
pressure and drier air pushes south into the area with a dry
memorial day forecast.

key message 3...
broad upper level ridge focused along the east coast expands north
into the area tuesday and wednesday with temperatures returning to
the lower 80s. this looks to be accompanied by a return of showers
and thunderstorms lifting north into the area on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
light rain showers linger across far northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania this evening into early tonight. a mix of
vfr, mvfr, and ifr are observed with lower ceilings to the west
and higher ceilings to the east. conditions should tend to lower
to mostly mvfr/ifr conditions as a cooler airmass wraps in
behind the departing low and cold front. there is a very low
probability of 1/2 sm fg and ceilings as low as 200-300 ft for
parts of northwest and northern ohio late tonight generally west
of i-77. this is most likely to occur near kmfd.

gusty southerly to southeasterly winds will continue ahead of
the advancing cold front through this evening, mainly in far
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. gusts will generally
range between 20-25 knots with locally higher gusts of 35-40
knots near the lakeshore (keri) in downsloping. gusts will
diminish tonight as the low exits to the northeast, giving way
to light and variable winds late tonight through sunday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with lingering rain showers and lower
ceilings sunday night. non-vfr possible with rain showers on
wednesday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory from avon point to ripley ny remains in
effect through 4 am sunday as strong southerly to southeasterly
winds 20-30 knots persist. given the offshore component,
highest waves will occur in the open waters. the current swim
risk for the central and eastern basins remains low given the
location of highest waves. southerly winds will diminish through
sunday morning as the parent low pressure exits the region
giving way to light and variable winds and waves 1 foot or less
through the middle of next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory until 2 am edt sunday for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
813 pm edt sat may 23 2026

.key messages...

- showers expected (70-80%) on sunday. a few non-severe
thunderstorms will also be possible (20-30%).

- a few showers possible late tuesday through thursday, mainly
along and south of us-30. highest chances (30-60%) wednesday.

- above normal temperatures expected next week with highs
generally the low 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt sat may 23 2026

a weak surface low analyzed near ktol will continue to lift
northeast and away from the area late this afternoon with a lull in
rain chances for most this afternoon into tonight. moisture wrapping
around its back side may continue to produce a few light showers and
drizzle in cyclonic flow through 4-5 pm this afternoon in portions
of northwest oh and south-central mi.

a convectively augmented mid level impulse over northeast ok will
get a kick northeast by a larger scale shortwave advancing east
toward the western great lakes later tonight into sunday. these
features should generate numerous rain showers (60-80%), and perhaps
a few non-severe storms, in the vicinity of an associated sfc trough
from west to east given ample moisture and decent upper level
support. latest guidance favors areas mainly west of interstate 69
sunday morning for rain chances, eventually spreading east through
the remainder of the forecast area sunday afternoon.

weak surface ridging settles into the lower great lakes sunday night
into monday with fair wx and warmer high temps into the low 80s. a
moisture/instability axis does attempt to lift north to near the us
30 corridor in response to the phasing of weak upper level waves
over the central plains. this will bring chances for showers/iso
storms back into the forecast for areas mainly along/south of us 30,
best chances (30-60%) on wednesday. the bulk of these periods will
likely be dry given the nebulous forcing as ridging generally holds
aloft. warm (highs low 80s) and slightly more humid otherwise with
sfc dewpoints into the low-mid 60s.

ensembles by late this week into next weekend continue to drive an
expansive low level anticyclone south into the great lakes region on
the backside of renewed northeast conus upper troughing. lower
humidity, slightly cooler/seasonable temps and dry conditions will
be favored in this dry and subsident canadian air mass.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 803 pm edt sat may 23 2026

mvfr to ifr conditions expected at the taf sites this period,
with lifr possible at times overnight into early sunday am. the
first vort max responsible for todays showers/lower ceilings is
lifting northeastward with time. expect the mvfr ceilings to
briefly break this evening before deteriorating overnight into
sunday am again as moisture transport increases from the
south/southeast and the next system approaches from the west.
much of the guidance drops ceilings to 500-700 feet, with br
development between 1-3sm. some of the guidance does have
ceilings dropping to around 300-400ft, but didn`t feel confident
enough to add into the taf at this point.

rain chances develop with the approaching system towards
morning with thunderstorm potential increasing after 12z for
ksbn, 15z at kfwa. winds shift behind the system to the west-
northwest, with ceilings lifting towards mvfr/vfr in the later
afternoon/evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1055 pm edt sat may 23 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers with embedded thunderstorms sunday afternoon.

- summer-like temperatures monday through wednesday with low rain
chances.

&&

.aviation...

expecting ifr to low mvfr ceilings to hold throughout the night.
given the expectation for stratus, decided to remove ifr mention of
fog at daybreak. wave of warm advection will lift through southeast
michigan sunday afternoon. a line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms will be possible south of i 69 between 19-23z.
introduced a tempo for -tsra at the detroit sites.

d21/dtw convection...a line of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible between 19-23z sunday. no severe weather is expected.


.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000ft into sunday morning.

* low for ceilings and visibilities to fall to 200ft or 1/2sm
tonight into sunday morning.

* medium for thunderstorms sunday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 334 pm edt sat may 23 2026

discussion...

center of low pressure near the mouth of the detroit river lifts ne
along the mi/on border through the rest of the day. mid-level
moisture gradually strips out but sub-700mb moisture lingers around
beneath additional pva to continue to grind out more light showers,
drizzle, and mist into this evening - especially east of i-75.
abundant cloud cover and northeast wind maintain a rather raw
afternoon for late may standards. precip tapers off and wind backs
to westerly as the low passes north this evening, leading into a
mostly cloudy night with lows 40s and 50s and some patchy fog.

deep layer but modest southwest flow emerges on sunday ahead of an
amplified trough working in from the midwest. this drives a warm
front into southern lower mi, allowing temps to rebound into the 60s
and lower 70s later in the day. the front also provides the focus
for convective initiation as pva spreads in aloft, and a cluster of
showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon
to early evening. lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds may
interrupt some holiday weekend plans tomorrow. weak boundary layer
flow and instability will be limiting factors for strong to severe
storms as cloud cover looks to be fairly widespread and lapse rates
through the column are meager. still, bulk wind shear creeping up to
35 to 45 kt, low lcls, and slightly backed low-level flow near the
front may support a sneaky severe setup if instability overachieves
the current forecast. precip chances taper off during the evening as
any remaining instability wanes and high pressure develops overhead.

the high pressures eases toward lake erie on monday with southwest
flow advecting in much warmer air from the midwest. the strongest
warm air advection will set up in the saginaw valley where highs in
the mid 80s are forecast and there may be enough instability for an
afternoon shower or storm. elsewhere, capped profiles and shallower
warm air keep highs in the upper 70s to around 80. a similar setup
will exist tuesday and wednesday with a 20-30% chance for showers
and storms on wednesday as a backdoor cold front provides some
surface convergence within an otherwise nebulous forcing regime. a
cool down to more seasonable temps ensues late week as canadian high
pressure builds in.

marine...

small craft advisories continue for all nearshore waters with the
exception of lake erie with strong onshore flow. easterly winds
gusting 25 to 30 knots will persist much of the day as surface low
slow tracks north from the northern ohio valley. widespread light
rain showers and drizzle will also persist through this evening. the
low will weaken and dissipate this evening into tonight over lake
huron, leading to lighter winds for the second half of the weekend.
however, another upper-level disturbance will bring a good chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region on sunday. high
pressure returns monday and slips east into the mid-atlantic states
on tuesday, maintaining generally light winds.

hydrology...

a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to track west to
east across the area sunday afternoon. most areas will receive a
quarter inch of rainfall or less, but there will be the potential
for some areas to see up to 1 inch. this would be most likely to
occur south of m-59. overall dry conditions over the past 30 days
suggests the potential for flooding is low, aside from typical
isolated flood prone locations in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...tf
marine.......drk
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.