Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
154
fxus61 kcle 250845
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
345 am est sun jan 25 2026

.what has changed...
snow has moved into all areas a couple of hours faster this
morning but now looks to end faster tonight. the bulk of the
widespread snow will be over by midnight with just some
lingering light snow through the night. forecast snowfall
totals have increased to 10-15 inches across the region, with
the greatest amounts on a mt. vernon to meadville line.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread heavy snow will impact the region today before
tapering off tonight bringing major travel impacts. lake
enhanced snow showers will linger in ne ohio and nw pa monday,
with additional light amounts expected.

2) temperatures will drop below zero monday night and tuesday
morning with wind chill values of -10 to -20 bringing a
significant cold exposure risk.

3) prolonged cold with occasional light snow is expected into
next weekend creating elevated risks for cold exposure and
damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the much talked about snowstorm is underway this morning.
regional radar and surface observations indicate that snow is
reaching the ground areawide. snow has been steadily increasing
here at the office over the past hour. the snow began a couple
of hours faster than previous forecasts since wet bulb effects
were able to moisten the low-levels, and this faster start is
part of the reason why snowfall amounts have been increased.

the snow so far has been driven by broad moisture advection and
isentropic ascent in the mid-levels, with infrared satellite and
water vapor loops currently showing a broad conveyor belt of
mid-level moisture streaming from the texas gulf coast
northeast through the tennessee and ohio valleys. as the
remnants of the southern stream mid/upper shortwave fully phase
with the northern stream mid/upper trough digging through the
central conus later this morning, a coupled mid/upper jet
structure will develop over the mississippi valley vicinity and
move toward the ohio valley. the very strong upper divergence
beneath this coupled jet will strengthen mid-level (700-500 mb)
frontogenetic forcing, and this will set up a band of much
heavier snowfall to the immediate nw of the track of the
deepening surface to 850 mb low. the latest nam, rap, and href
guidance remain consistent in tracking the surface low from east
tennessee this morning through northern and central west
virginia by late afternoon, with the 850 low following a path
just to the nw of that. this gives high confidence that the band
of heaviest snowfall beneath the aforementioned mid-level
frontogenesis will set up along a mt. vernon to meadville line
from about mid morning through evening. snowfall rates will
increase to about 1 inch per hour during this window, and this
combined with the faster start this morning will lead to storm
totals of 10-15 inches. even farther nw on the edge of this
enhanced frontogenesis band, the overall synoptic lift and
moisture advection combined with the dry snow ratios greater
than 20:1 will lead to a solid 8 to 13 inches in much of north
central and ne ohio and nw pa, with 7 to 10 inches in far nw
ohio, so increased the forecast areawide. one other thing to
point out is thunder snow potential. looked at a rap forecast
sounding near youngstown for this afternoon which will be right
within that frontogenesis band. the sounding did not show any
instability, but given the degree of forcing and moisture
advection in that area (the sweet spot), would not be surprised
if some -epv develops and causes some convective snow bursts
with a clap of thunder. this will be the largest and most
widespread snowstorm to impact our area since february 2022!

the snow will rapidly taper off from west to east tonight as the
low and associated forcing move toward the new jersey coast and
a coastal low attempts to take over. this process will strip
away the moisture faster, which is why the synoptic snow will
end faster tonight than previously forecasted other than some
lingering light snow showers. nevertheless, travel impacts will
continue through the night as nw winds increase to 15-25 knots,
with occasional gusts to near 30 knots, allowing for some minor
blowing and drifting of the dry, fluffy snow. this will
especially be true in nw ohio and near the lakeshore. after a
lull much of the night, some wraparound moisture and strong cold
air advection across lakes huron and erie will set up some lake
enhanced and lake-effect snow showers in upslope favored regions
of the inland primary snowbelt of ne ohio and nw pa. this will
develop by 09-12z monday and continue through midday monday.
confidence in the amount of lake enhanced/effect snow has
decreased since there is no lingering trowal feature, the best
moisture strips away quickly, there is quite a bit of boundary
layer shear, and lake erie is ice-covered. this will probably
limit additional snow accumulations across the snowbelt monday
to 1 to 2 inches, with locally up to 3. the snow showers will
shift up the shoreline monday afternoon as the flow backs to sw
before ending by monday night.

key message 2...
a deep mid/upper trough will be reinforced across the central
and eastern conus in the wake of the storm downstream of
persistent strong ridging offshore of the west coast extending
up to alaska. this will send a renewed pool of arctic air into
much of the country east of the rockies as cross polar flow
continues. this combined with fresh, deep snowpack and sw winds
eliminating any warming from lake erie will allow for widespread
below zero temperatures monday night and tuesday morning. the
current forecasted lows may not be cold enough (it has been
trending colder), so we could see temperatures below -5 to -10
in a number of locations if trends continue. this along with sw
winds gusting to 15-25 knots at times will produce wind chills
as low as -20, so cold weather headlines will be needed monday
night into tuesday.

key message 3...
the aforementioned ridge/trough pattern and cross polar flow
will keep arctic air locked in place through next weekend. this
will be the coldest stretch of weather since late december 2017
through early january 2018. daily highs will struggle to rise
out of the low and mid teens through next saturday, with some
single digit highs on wednesday and thursday. lows will fall
below zero each night, with wind chills of -10 to -20 at times.
this prolonged cold will significantly increase risks for cold
exposure and infrastructure damage. in terms of snow chances,
frequent weak shortwave troughs and clipper-type systems will
bring bouts of light synoptic snow areawide, with periods of
lake- effect snow showers in the ne ohio and nw pa snowbelts.
details of these systems are unclear at this time, but the most
defined systems look to be late tuesday and wednesday night.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
at the surface, a low strengthens gradually while wobbling
ne`ward from the northwestern gulf to near the upper oh valley
through 00z/mon. between 00z and 06z/mon, the first low should
dissipate in vicinity of pa as a new low forms south of long
island and then wobbles ne`ward to near nantucket. these lows
will extend a trough over our region through the taf period. our
regional surface winds, around 5 to 15 knots in magnitude, will
back gradually from e`erly to nw`erly through the taf period.
periodic gusts up to about 20 knots are expected between
~12z/sun and ~03z/mon, especially west of the longitude of kcle.

ceilings continue to lower slowly to the mvfr range and
generally from southwest to northeast through ~10z/sun.
widespread mvfr ceilings then persist through 06z/mon.
widespread snow associated with the aforementioned low pressure
system continues to overspread our region generally from
southwest to northeast through ~09z/sun. visibility will range
between mvfr and lifr in snow. periods of heavy snow are
expected and periodic ifr ceilings are possible, especially
between 12z/sun and 00z/mon. snow should begin to exit from west
to east after ~04z/mon. the back edge of the widespread snow
should near the longitude of kmfd by 06z/mon.

outlook...widespread snow with non-vfr should exit the rest of
our region generally from west to east during the predawn hours
of monday morning. during the rest of monday through thursday,
additional periods of snow with non-vfr are possible,
especially in ne oh and nw pa, where periodic lake-effect snow
may occur downwind of mainly ice-covered lake erie.

&&

.marine...
east-northeast flow becomes 15-20 knots today. winds become
northwest on monday and then southwest on tuesday. southwest winds
should generally be around 20-30 knots, though there is a very low
chance for gales (5-10%), especially in the far eastern basin. there
is also a low chance for low water in the western basin as well.
west winds of around 15 knots on wednesday become northwest thursday
into the weekend.

ice will continue to thicken through next weekend as several bouts
of cold air impact the region. stronger southwest winds on tuesday
may break up and shift the ice northeastward away from the
southwestern shoreline of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning until 7 am est monday for ohz003-006>008-
017.
winter storm warning until 10 am est monday for ohz009>014-
018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...winter storm warning until 1 pm est monday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...jaszka
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1135 pm est sat jan 24 2026

.key messages...

- a winter storm warning and winter weather advisory is in
effect for various counties. snow begins tonight, lasting
through sunday. snow ends sunday night.

- in the warning area, snow greater than 6 inches is expected.
hazardous travel may persist into monday morning.

- lake effect snow develops monday morning.

-dangerous cold yet again tuesday morning with wind chills near
20 below zero.

&&

.update...
issued at 815 pm est sat jan 24 2026

development of southerly flow level flow cutting across strong
baroclinic zone across will continue to provide focus of some
low level and mid level lift through the night. some very dry
low levels had to be dislodged this evening, so this advective
forcing will take some time to generate measurable snow across
the far north/northeast portions of the area. across in/oh did
speed up timing of pops a bit given observational trends and
even a few reports of a tenth of an inch of snow already this
evening.

no big changes made at this time regarding forecast late tonight
into sunday, but will have to monitor evolution of the initial
upstream mid level trough that will be tracking across the
region through sunday afternoon. some latest guidance may be
trending a little sharper with this trough, and thus maintaining
some modest low/mid level baroclinicity for a slightly longer
time across ne in/nw ohio. a slightly sharper trough also
appears to hold some low level advective forcing in a bit longer
across southeast half of the forecast area. given a trend to
slightly stronger synoptic forcing signal in the 12z-21z
timeframe, some concern that warning level accums could nudge a
bit farther northwest into portions of the current advisory
area. confidence still not high to make a headline change at
this time however, with still some lower confidence regarding
exact snow ratios and the amplitude/timing of the initial mid
level trough. this also appears to be a steady type accumulation
over a rather extended period which may mitigate impact
somewhat. if any more pronounced banding can develop for a
short time, this potential appears to be maximized across the
warning area in far ne in/nw oh. did slightly nudge up snow
accums in the intermediate area between warning/advisory
segments, but otherwise no major changes planned at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 224 pm est sat jan 24 2026

overall, no significant changes to the incoming winter storm.

a wintry weekend is underway or imminent for much of the us. low
pressure over the tx/la gulf coast slowly lifts north this evening
with a modest precipitation shield extending into the mid-
mississippi valley where arctic high pressure has a grip over the
midwest. this high pressure limits poleward moisture transport this
evening with its strong subsidence and bone-dry air mass (dew points
in the 10s-to-teens below-zero). forecast soundings do show
saturation occuring prior to midnight et for those along and south
of us 24 allowing for about 1-2" by daybreak sunday; armchair
meteorologists may scoff sunday morning about the lack of snow but
more is on the way.

our primary period of prolonged, steady snowfall is during the day
sunday and tapering off after sunset. this is when a second, more
potent low currently digging in over the baja of california lifts
northeast through the tennessee river valley. by this time, high
pressure will have shifted northeast allowing for improved moisture
profile locally, but still cannot rule out being "robbed" of some
moisture transport with such a large precipitation shield across the
s southeast us. the 12z suite of forecast guidance generally stayed
close to the existing forecast. there were some northward shifts in
cams (as well as the nam). balancing the dry air mass, subtle
northward shift of some guidance and reducing snow ratios a touch,
we`ve generally held course with this afternoon`s forecast package.

in coordination with neighboring offices, we did reduce the
inherited 20:1 snow ratios (now capped at (17:1); likely over-
boosted by the very cold air mass. indeed, the 15k ft deep dendritic
growth zone is impressive, but overall forcing in the column is
modest as revealed by time-height cross sections. nonetheless, a
fluffy snow and a brief period 1" per hour rates. these rates are
most likely around sunrise sunday morning as an area of mid-level
frontogenesis passes overhead. wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph will
result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with easterly wind at
the start of the evening "backing" (counter-clockwise) to become
westerly by the snow`s end.

a single band of lake effect develops sunday night as this surface
low becomes centered off the new england coast. the band tracks from
the western lake michigan shore to the east which will limit
residence time but 1" per hour rates are expected as the band swings
through. depending on its residence time for the monday morning
commute, additional winter weather headlines may be needed for
michiana.

dangerous cold returns monday night (did it ever really leave?) with
-22c noted at 850 mb, good for apparent temperatures tuesday
morning near 20-below zero. temperatures attempt to moderate
after but are limited by an incoming clipper midweek. thus,
cold with lake effect snow is in store for the week ahead.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1135 pm est sat jan 24 2026

steady light snow with primarily ifr visbys will persist early
this morning in response to broad warm/moist advection. the
main upper wave lifts through during the day on sunday which
should bring moderate to briefly heavier snow to mainly kfwa
with lifr conditions. northeast winds near 10 knots becoming
more northerly later today otherwise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday
for inz005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 am est monday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...brown
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
355 am est sun jan 25 2026

.key messages...

- a winter storm warning is in effect for monroe county, and winter
weather advisory along and south of the m 59 corridor as well as the
eastern thumb.

- light snow chances exist both tuesday and wednesday. fluffy snow
accumulations of up to 2 inches will be possible each day.

- very cold conditions continue next week with wind chills
occasionally dipping to 10 to 15 below zero.

&&

.discussion...

coupled upper level jet dynamics with strong anticyclonic curvature
to the forward +180 kt streak will guide 850-700m baroclinic
wave/circulation through the northern ohio river valley while
locking in the northern fringes of the deformation axis over
southeast michigan today. much of the forecast reasoning provided in
earlier discussions remains valid. the inherited grids were largely
maintained with a few upward revisions to the pops. as previous
discussions have stated, the gradient of the liquid equivalent in
close proximity to the area presents a challenge. survey of the
25.00z nwp with context provided by the 5.0 nbm snowfall percentiles
suggests no substantial trends or changes to the storm total qpf for
much of southeast michigan. overall, thinking stands at .25 to .40
inch range event total. limitations on the upper end for snowfall
amounts, are compromised ice crystal microphysics with more of a
fine sugar type habit thus far and snowfall ratios that are
forecasted at/around 14:1. forecast soundings show relatively high
stability for much of today between a deep 2.5 and 20.0 kft agl
which suggests the system here locally is really going to rely on
forced ascent with any true upright warm frontal structure well to
the southeast of toledo. supersaturation with respect to ice is very
deep and the overall forecast and messaging is in good shape. storm
total snowfall of 5-8 inches for monroe county, 4-7 inches for
lenawee, washtenaw, and wayne, and 2-4 inches with isolated 5 inches
amounts along the m 59 corridor. in-house timed lagged ensemble data
suggests very little potential to reach inch per hour rates and so
additional warning upgrades were made.

the one significant change to the forecast was to expand the winter
weather advisory for huron and sanilac counties in effect until 10am
monday. raw output of hi resolution cams suggests lake effect
banding will push into and swing through eastern sections of the
thumb in vicinity of the lake huron shoreline. there is uncertainty
in timing, but guidance suggests the potential between 03-14z
monday. 00z runs of the hrrr, arw, and mpas all are fairly bullish
on qpf amounts over huron and sanilac counties. for posterity, there
is a very lean qpf signal in the both the aigfs and ecmwf aifs.
forecast soundings show convective heights rising to 8.0 kft agl
with uvv signal intersecting the dendritic growth zone. for
messaging, snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches will be possible.

the big narrative for the upcoming week remains the continuation of
the below normal temperatures winter pattern. current guidance
supports forecasted windchill values of -10 to -17f for tuesday,
wednesday and thursday mornings. refinements will be made in the
coming days as conditions will obviously be dependent on wind
forecasts and the expected cloud cover. windchill or cold weather
advisories may be needed at some point. highs throughout the weak are
expected to reach the teens above zero, which is approximately 10 to
15 degrees below normal.

the other item to address is the potential for light snow during
each of the days tuesday and wednesday. current offered guidance is
extremely lean on both pops (only a chance) and snow amounts. up to
2 inches of snowfall appears possible/reasonable with very high
liquid to snow ratios and very low qpf. dynamics for tuesday will be
tied to direct absolute vorticity advection from amplified
shortwave, while dynamics wednesday appears arise from thermal
surface troughing developing under a strong polar vorticity trough
aloft.

&&

.marine...

light winds hold through the day as a strong high pressure departs
into into quebec. light snow to continue across the southern great
lakes as an expansive low pressure winter storm system moves through
the appalachia region. embedded lake effect snow bands will also be
likely through central and southern lake huron into monday, where
some rapid reductions in visibility will be possible. cold air is
reinforced within the wake of this low across the great lakes early
next week, which will bring the return of elevated wind gusts
through the midweek period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1205 am est sun jan 25 2026

aviation...

conditions will gradually deteriorate as snowfall spreads further
north with time through the morning reaching mbs by mid-late morning.
low vfr ceilings with light snowfall precedes the arrival of mvfr
cigs and vsbys before the main event unfolds across southeast
michigan terminals between 11z and 23z. heavier snowfall has been
trending earlier bringing solid ifr to lifr conditions to the detroit
terminals by at least 16z, if not slightly earlier, that then last
through the afternoon. ifr conditions also expected to reach up to
fnt for a period by this afternoon as well. the higher snow
accumulation will reside across dtw airspace with up to 4 to 6 inches
of accumulation and 1 to 3 inches up to fnt. winds to around 10
knots will slow back from the east to the north as the low pressure
system passes south of the state. heavier snow will begin to taper
off towards 00z and after with improvements in visibility while
low ceilings linger.

for dtw...main window for accumulating snowfall will be focused
between 11z sunday morning to 23z sunday evening with peak snowfall
rates of a quarter to a half inch per hour between 16z and 23z. ifr
conditions are expected with periods of lifr during the peak of
snowfall rates. snow accumulations most likely in the 4 to 6 inch
range with lower probability to exceed 6 inches.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 through sunday.

* high in precipitation type of snow.

* medium in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2sm in falling
snow after 16z sunday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 9 am this morning to 10 am est monday
for miz049-055.

winter weather advisory from 9 am this morning to midnight est
tonight for miz063-068>070.

winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for miz075-076-
082.

winter storm warning until midnight est tonight for miz083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......am
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.