Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
337
fxus61 kcle 220916
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
416 am est thu jan 22 2026

.what has changed...
a winter storm watch has been issued for much of the area
saturday evening into monday as a widespread moderate to heavy
snow is becoming more likely.

&&

.key messages...
1) we are continuing to monitor a potentially significant snow storm
for this upcoming weekend, with widespread moderate to heavy
accumulations becoming more likely. a winter storm watch has
been issued for much of the area saturday evening into monday.

2) a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills is expected
beginning this friday and will likely extend into at least mid-
next week.

3) a cold front will move east through the area this morning,
bringing a brief period of snow showers and gusty winds, mainly
across the northern half of the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a winter storm watch has been issued for much of the area
saturday evening into monday. an extension to the watch may be
needed across northwest ohio if trends persist.

confidence continues to increase for a widespread moderate to
heavy snow event across the region saturday evening into monday
as a low pressure system moves northeast from the tennessee
valley to the mid- atlantic. ample gulf moisture will combine
with an arctic air mass, resulting in efficient snow processes
and snow ratios likely to exceed 15:1. the latest qpf trends
from ensemble guidance continues to slowly trend further north
and northwest as models suggest a more amplified upper-level
pattern across the eastern conus. at this point, confidence is
medium to medium-high (50 to 70%) for the current watch area to
receive at least 6 inches of snow with the highest totals found
generally east of the i-71 corridor. probabilities of snow
totals of 12 inches or more remain low (10 to 20%), but cannot
be ruled out.


key message 2...

a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills is expected towards
the end of the week and into at least mid-next week as an arctic
cold front moves through the area on friday. a cold weather
advisory may be needed as early as friday morning as a combination
of modest west to northwest winds of 10 and 15 mph and temperatures
falling into the single digits result in wind chills as low as -15
degrees f. these dangerously-cold wind chills are expected to
persist through the day on friday. ambient temperatures of -5
to -10 degrees f will largely match the wind chills friday night
into saturday morning as arctic high pressure leads to light
winds. with the exception of sunday, there remains medium- high
to high confidence (70 to 100%) for daytime high temperatures to
be below 18 degrees f into mid-next week. another round of cold
weather advisories may be needed monday night into tuesday as
wind chills fall to near -15 degrees f.


key message 3...

a cold front is moving east through the area early this morning,
with recent surface observations noting brief, elevated wind
gusts of 40 to 45 mph behind the front. the latest satellite
imagery suggests ample mid-level dry air in place which should
limit much in the way of additional snow accumulations and coverage
of snow showers. some elevated mid- level moisture may return
across far northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania this
morning, aided somewhat by ice- free areas of the eastern basin
of lake erie, though any additional accumulations appear light,
generally 1.5 inches or less. will likely be able to expire the
winter weather advisory at the scheduled time of 7 am this
morning.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
most of the airspace is vfr to start the taf period outside of a
final band of rain/snow with the cold front that will exit the
taf sites in the next hour or two. another batch of snow will
enter the northern half of the airspace overnight and move over
lake erie. some additional snow is possible at ktol, kcle, and
keri with this batch of snow and some non-vfr visibility is also
possible. some mvfr ceilings will enter with this wave and will
have most sites back to mvfr later tonight. high pressure will
build from the southwest and scour out the lower ceilings and
trends will be to vfr and then high/no ceilings. winds through
the period will be southwest to west with gusts of 20 to 30 kts.
winds will diminish later in the period with no gusts with high
pressure entering.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lake effect snow showers in
ne oh and nw pa through friday. non-vfr possible late saturday
through early monday in widespread snow showers.

&&

.marine...
breezy west to southwest flow continues on lake erie through friday,
generally in the 20-30 knot range. they may be a brief period of
near gale-force winds late tonight into friday morning, primarily in
the eastern basin. there may also be low water in the western basin,
especially this afternoon/evening when wind direction is most likely
to be southwest.

high pressure and quiet conditions build in on saturday. low
pressure tracks across the ohio valley, with northeast winds
strengthening to around 20 knots on sunday. southwest flow of around
2-25 knots is most likely on monday, though there is a very low
probability of gale-force winds.

ice on lake erie (which is mostly ice-covered at this point) will
continue to thicken/expand through next week as several bouts of
cold air impact the region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
morning for ohz008-009-017>019-027>029-036-037-047.
winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
afternoon for ohz010>014-020>023-030>033-038-089.
pa...winter storm watch from saturday evening through monday
afternoon for paz001>003.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...sefcovic
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
919
fxus63 kiwx 221002
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
502 am est thu jan 22 2026

.key messages...
- a cold weather advisory is in place for late tonight into
friday morning for wind chills 15 to 25 below zero. cold wind
chills below zero continue through much of saturday night.

- lake effect snow returns tonight through friday with an
additional 2 to 3 inches of snow most possible between
berrien, cass, mi, and laporte counties.

- a storm is expected to pass south of the area between
saturday afternoon and sunday night and may be able to bring
significant snow totals to the area.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 444 am est thu jan 22 2026

the shortwave that brought light snow to our northern areas today
continues slowly move northward today, but an upper low arrives in
the great lakes not too far behind it. this may spell a brief break
in the lake effect snow early this afternoon with a period of
southwest trajectories. however, a quick return to west winds and
low level wind convergence sliding southward toward berrien county
as well as negative theta-e lapse rates. there are a few things that
are negative for it this time around though with a slow start for
inversion heights, reaching 5000 ft by early friday morning, and
delta ts only reaching 20c. by friday morning though, a strong
vigorous shortwave and colocated surface trough passes through the
lake and inversion heights slowly rise to 5500 to 6000 ft and delta
ts reach 25 to 30c indicating better lake effect enhancement. given
it`ll be so cold though, the dgz is very close to the surface,
whereas the moisture and lift is above it in colder layers of the
atmosphere, which reduces slrs. another wrinkle in this is that the
trajectories begin to veer northerly friday night after being
northwesterly most of the day friday as a 1050 mb high pressure
center moves through the lower great lakes. this does have a chance
to produce 1 to 3 inches.

the other hazard will be the cold. 850 mb temperatures drop rapidly
tonight to between -25 and -30c friday into friday night. there will
also be a 50 kt jet traversing the area tonight into friday morning.
this will allow wind chills to exceed -15f easily and could make
negative 25f wind chills possible for counties west of us-31. the
one issue will be if the lake clouds can provide a bit of a blanket
for the area keeping them warmer. models have a greater than 25%
chance of -25f wind chills in parts of the n/s laporte zones as well
as in parts of starke, pulaski, and white counties. have issued a
cold weather advisory for friday morning for the whole area as a
result. given the lake cloud potential, have held off with a cold
weather warning for the aforementioned counties for now. it is
possible that the advisories get extend into friday a little longer,
especially areas n of us-24, but this is when the llj begins to move
east of the area.

trajectories allow for waa saturday into sunday so that -10 to -20c
temperatures at 850 mb will be more possible. the jet is east of the
area at this point, but 15 to 25 mph gusts will be possible. wind
chills during this period will be more in the single digits below
zero for saturday and single digits above zero for sunday.

now, the bigger issue is the low pressure system approaching for
saturday (right around midday) sunday and into sunday night. the
next trough behind the 1050 mb high pressure system is able to drop
all the way to the gulf and pick up the energy and moisture before
sending the low up the appalachian mountains. there are still
differences between the gfs and the ecmwf with the gfs being flatter
than the ecmwf, but the aigfs is actually closer to the ecmwf with
its precip shield, which lends some confidence to the situation. the
850 mb low track points to the area seeing the worst of saturday
night through sunday night. it actually arrives saturday midday and
that`s when the lake effect snow band would be ongoing. given the
very cold air expected for friday, ratios will likely be greater
than seasonal average ratios of 13:1, potentially reaching 15 to
20:1. surface temperatures struggle to get much above 10 on saturday
and morning lows struggle to get above zero on saturday. however, it
looks like winds will be a little bit more relaxed with gusts
staying below 20 mph through the event, which should help keep wind
chills above cold weather advisory criteria.

lake effect snow looks to follow for sunday night/monday as a strong
vort max crosses lake mi. we`ll also have a return of -20c at 850 mb
signifying cold temperatures continuing next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1247 am est thu jan 22 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions through the period, with
potential for quick drops to ifr visibility within any snow
showers tonight into early morning (obs within showers ranging
from 1 1/2sm to 3sm at times). w-sw winds will shift more w-nw
for a period behind the passing cold front (currently over
ksbn), with gusts up to around 35kts possible (kbeh/kppo/koxi
as of this writing gusting to around 31-32kts). upstream
observations near chicago/pontiac, il towards rensselaer were
gusting up to around 35-42kts with the front passage earlier
this evening, so wouldn`t be surprised to see a few higher
gusts given the llj ramping up tonight. llws lingers at kfwa
before better mixing arrives with the front. showers just west
of the terminal as of right now had visibility drop to around
5sm when they passed over krcr-and remained greater than 6sm for
kasw-so kept the vis drops to mvfr for now in the tempo. dry
conditions otherwise, with lake effect snow developing just
beyond the taf period at ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from 4 am est /3 am cst/ to 1 pm est
/noon cst/ friday for inz005>007-012>015-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
cold weather advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est friday for inz008-
009-017-018-020-022>026.
cold weather advisory from 7 am to 1 pm est friday for inz027-
032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est friday for ohz001-
002.
cold weather advisory from 7 am to 1 pm est friday for ohz004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est friday for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...gale warning until 7 am est friday for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning until 1 am est saturday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
110
fxus63 kdtx 220854
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
354 am est thu jan 22 2026

.key messages...

- scattered snow showers early this morning with more expected this
afternoon and evening. additional minor accumulations are likely,
but generally remain below 1 inch.

- a cold weather advisory is in effect from tonight through saturday
morning due to dangerously cold conditions. wind chills well below
zero are expected, reaching a minimum of -15 to -25f friday morning.

- confidence is increasing for accumulating snowfall on sunday, with
potential for several inches across southeast mi.

&&

.discussion...

a weak clipper is passing over the area this morning, ushering in
the return of arctic air in its wake later today. the ongoing round
of snow showers will continue to focus along and south of m-59
before tapering off by late morning. the ensuing cold advection
within blustery wsw wind will activate the lake effect and favor
additional periods of scattered snow showers and flurries through
the day. these should remain light early within a background rising
height field, but will become a bit more organized this afternoon as
the boundary layer deepens with increasing lapse rates. the best
window for a higher coverage of showers with minor accumulations
will be roughly 6 to 10 pm this evening as another arctic front
passes through. hi-res guidance cross sections show a healthy
frontal circulation and transient omega/fgen flare-up so one or more
bands may bring localized totals around 1 inch. this is most likely
to set up between the i-94 and i-69 corridors. otherwise, up to
around a half inch is more likely for most of the area through
tonight.

tonight`s front marks the arrival of bitter cold temperatures that
will encompass the region friday into this weekend. 850mb temps are
progged to fall from about -13c this morning to near -30c midday
friday. surface temps drop from the teens this evening to about zero
friday morning before recovering slightly into the single digits in
the afternoon. wnw wind around 20 to 25 mph will make it feel much
colder, with wind chill falling below zero this evening and
bottoming out in the -15 to -25f range friday morning. this will be
the coldest period of the forecast when considering the wind. as the
diurnal temperature swing kicks in and wind begins to subside
through the afternoon, wind chills will rebound slightly but stay in
the -10 to -15f range the rest of the day. a cold weather advisory
is in effect for all of southeast michigan overnight tonight through
saturday morning.

strong arctic high pressure builds directly into the great lakes
friday night into saturday, with grand ensemble mean mslp of around
1043mb coming in near the max in naefs and ecmwf ensemble
climatology, or about 2.5 sigma above climo. this will be an
extremely cold and dry air mass with clearing skies and dew points
near -15f setting us up for overnight lows in the negative teens.
this may challenge daily record low mins at all sites. high cloud
associated with the southern conus winter storm is shown to build in
saturday morning which may mitigate the cold lows to a degree,
especially if it arrives earlier than currently anticipated. very
light wind during this period will keep wind chill closer to the
actual air temp, still worthy of cold weather advisory coverage.

probability has continued to increase for se mi to see some snowfall
on sunday as the expansive southern conus system gets pulled up the
ohio valley and appalachians. the system will be driven by an upper
low currently off the west coast that eventually phases with a
negatively tilted trough dropping over the midwest and great lakes
this weekend. model spread is still high with regards to how these
waves interact and the subsequent track of the surface low(s), but
worth noting the increasing potential for a farther west track that
could affect the area with accumulating snow. the latest winter
storm outlook from wpc highlights far se mi with a 10 to 30% chance
to see over 7 inches of snow by monday morning, and have included
likely snow chances in the forecast this package.

&&

.marine...

departure of low pressure into ontario and quebec will push a very
strong arctic cold front across the great lakes today and friday
which will bring the continuation of active weather and breezy
conditions.

the combination of the strengthening pressure gradient and strong
over lake instability will support sustained winds around 20 to 25
knots with gust potential around 30 to 35 knots, with gust to gales
favored across central and southern lake huron. confidence continues
to increase to see a gust to gales favored this morning through
tomorrow morning which has prompted the issuance of a gale warning.
additionally, a heavy freezing spray warning remains in effect for
all of lake huron given the intrusion of arctic temperatures and
sustained elevated winds.

snow squalls will be likely today and tomorrow, especially across
central and northern lake huron where surface convergence is
enhanced. expect rapid reductions to visibility within any squall. a
very strong high pressure system to then settle across the great
lakes this weekend which will maintain arctic temperatures but will
allow wind speeds to rapidly diminish.

&&

.climate...

the record low max temps for friday, january 23rd.

detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1883)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1959)
saginaw: 3 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1209 am est thu jan 22 2026

aviation...

a quick passing clipper system and associated cold front will move
through southeast michigan bringing light accumulating snowfall to
start this taf period and last through about 08-09z. greater focus
for more intense showers based on observations will be be across ptk
and the southern metro terminals bringing a period of high
variability in cigs and vsbys. a dusting up to an inch of
accumulation possible across the terminals. closer to 2 inches will
be possible across the south if more intense band can maintain some
strength across southeast michigan. expecting conditions to drop to
mostly mvfr/ifr vsbys under the heavier snow showers during that
time. west winds and cold advection will keep lake michigan
activated and maintain low vfr/mvfr ceilings with light lake effect
snow showers tomorrow morning and afternoon.

for dtw...accumulating snow expected between through 08-09z early
this morning. accumulations of a dusting to an inch is most likely.
closer to 2 inches will be possible if a more intense band sets up
over dtw.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet through this morning and afternoon

* high for precip type as snow through the taf period.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory from 1 am friday to 10 am est saturday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 6 am est saturday for lhz361>363-
462>464.

gale warning from 10 am this morning to 4 am est friday for lhz363-
462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......am
climate......tf
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.