Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
256 am edt tue mar 10 2026

.what has changed...
severe weather concerns are increasing, especially for this
evening through wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) active weather returns this evening through wednesday.
severe thunderstorms are possible.

2.) primarily colder temperatures and additional periods of
unsettled weather are expected later this week through early
next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
there is stalled frontal boundary located from west to east
across the southern great lakes region this morning. in the mid
and upper levels, there is a west-southwest flow aloft. warm,
moist air advection is pooling south of this frontal boundary
setting up the stage for a battleground with storms.

as for today, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may try
to develop closer to the stalled frontal boundary across the
southern great lakes. locally, this scattered convection would
be closer to the lakeshore or over lake erie. this convection is
not the main show. an upper level trough will move from the
central plains eastward into the midwest and great lakes tonight
into wednesday. scattered strong to severe convection is
expected to develop west of our area this afternoon and early
evening. these showers and storms will move into northwest ohio
and western lake erie later this evening and overnight. all
modes of severe weather is possible with damaging winds as the
main threat. the secondary threat will be isolated tornadoes as
the area is highlighted by spc as a low 2 to 5 percent
probability. some small to large hail could be possible. most
of northern ohio and northwest pennyslvania is in the marginal
risk, northwest ohio is under a slight risk for severe storms
tonight. see the latest day 1 outlook from spc for the latest
severe weather potential.

a surface low will track northeastward from southeast michigan
through southern ontario on wednesday with a trailing cold
front. this cold front will move from west to east during the
midday and afternoon on wednesday. spc has most of northern
ohio and northwest pennyslvania in a slight risk for severe
weather. northwest ohio is under a marginal risk level. the main
severe weather hazard on wednesday will be damaging wind gusts
followed by an isolated tornado threat. spc again has the area
highlighted in a low 2 to 5 percent probability for a low end
tornado threat. some small hail could also be possible. a broken
line of strong to severe convection is expected to develop along
that cold front pushing through the area wednesday afternoon.
any kinks or surges in the line of storms will be the favored
area for damaging wind gusts and possible qlcs tornadoes. behind
the cold front wednesday evening, temperatures will drop and
rain will end from west to east.


key message 2...
a somewhat unsettled and colder weather pattern is expected
later this week through early next week. a fast moving clipper
system will track through the great lakes region on friday. this
system will bring a round of rain showers and windy weather.
with this onset of the rain showers moving in friday morning,
there could be some west snow mixed before temperature warm up.
it will become windy on friday with southwest to westerly winds
20 to 30 mph with gusts easily over 40 mph. we will have to
watch trends for a possible wind advisory.

the next weather system to watch and potentially more impactful
will be sunday through monday. a deep upper level trough will
develop over the central u.s. and into the great lakes region
sunday into monday. a stronger low pressure system will track
through the southern great lakes sunday afternoon into sunday
night. a strong cold front will move through sunday night. ahead
of that cold front, temperatures will be mild on sunday in the
60s. behind the cold front sunday night, temperatures will crash
into the 20s. rain will change over to snow as the colder air
moves in and light snow will continue into monday. the
widespread light snow will transition to lake effect snow as
much colder air aloft wakes or the lake effect monday into
tuesday. several inches of snowfall may be possible early next
week. stay tuned!

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
mainly low-end vfr ceilings across the taf sites early this
morning, with deterioration to mvfr ceilings later this morning
into the early afternoon. have removed most of the ifr ceilings
given recent model trends, though kept a brief tempo group at
tol this morning. otherwise, introduced a brief vcts group at
eri later this afternoon, as the combination of a weak lake
breeze and a lifting warm front could contribute to a few
showers and thunderstorms. in addition, also introduced a vcts
group at cle towards the end of the taf period as a cluster of
more organized thunderstorms may approach from the west.
anticipate additional vcts inclusions for most, if not all, taf
sites by the next package.

winds are generally out of the south to southwest early this
morning 8 to 12 knots. winds will mainly remain out of the
south to southwest through the taf period, 8 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely with showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow wednesday night into thursday. non-vfr may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on friday. confidence is increasing
for widespread strong west to southwest winds on friday.

&&

.marine...
breezy southwest winds of 10-20 knots on lake erie continue into
tonight. a weak frontal boundary settles south across the lake late
tuesday with winds shifting out of the east. thunderstorms are
possible in and near lake erie tuesday night along this boundary and
may interfere with wind conditions into wednesday. winds on
wednesday are forecast to increase into the 15-25 knot range ahead
of low pressure that will cross the lake, veering to west/northwest
behind a cold front wednesday night into thursday. waves will ramp
up to near 5 feet in ice free portions of the central basin
wednesday night.

another strong low pressure system is forecast to pass north of lake
erie on friday. winds could approach gale force on friday and the
track and strength of this system will need to be monitored.

&&

.climate...
daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records through
march 11th. here are the record warm high temperatures at area
climate sites for march 10th and 11th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
123 am edt tue mar 10 2026

.key messages...

- near-record high temperatures again tuesday.

- an enhanced risk of severe storms, mainly late tuesday
afternoon into the overnight hours tuesday night. all severe
hazards are possible, eventually transitioning to a heavy rain
and flooding threat late in the night.

- a frontal boundary across the region will interact with
several other systems for periodic chances of rain and snow
late week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

strong warm advection helps take our temperatures up to the mid 60s
to low 70s today allowing temperature records to be in play. a theta-
e plume comes in this afternoon and continues to increase through
tuesday afternoon. due to some low level moisture and an attempt at
trying to get some mid level instability in here, will continue a
low pop mention of rain, which could be drizzle, but will at least
be low stratus that continues into early tuesday and this could
affect the chance for record warm temperatures being observed
tuesday as well.

there is model agreement on bringing a vort max through the
area around or just after 18z and this may be enough to up- end
the lingering moisture and allow for some surface heating.
during this time, a frontal boundary is sinking southeastward
towards the in/mi border and a low pressure system is traversing
northeast towards the area. large scale ascent will probably
have enough lift to cause showers/storms by that point (around
00z). this is also around when a low level jet arrives. the
boundary parallel winds will allow for a tendency towards linear
cell structures, but given that the boundary will be arriving
during the day, wouldn`t be surprised to see initial discrete
structures as well. better effective shear (30+ kts) and
helicity arrives after 00z and instability will have a chance to
form during the afternoon with 60 degree dew points working
their way into southern portions of the area around 00z.
meanwhile, it is also being modeled that we`ll also have an eml
(mid level lapse rates 7+ c/km) to work with as long as it`s not
tainted upon advection up here. given these parameters in
place, all hazards will be in play so that`s damaging winds,
large hail, tornadoes, and flooding. we already have a few
rivers in action stage from the previous storm moving through
southern lower mi. in addition to boundary- parallel flow,
slowing mbe vectors overnight main contribute to the
backbuilding/training potential of storms, all making flooding
more possible.

the cold front slowly moves eastward arriving in the i-69 corridor
around 18z. so, there is some question about if we`ll be able to
remove moisture from lingering rain and recover instability in here
in time for thunderstorms to start that far west. spc has their
marginal risk for severe weather on wednesday starting right over
our eastern counties. the vort finally pushing the cold air into the
area has more of a west to east trajectory as opposed to north to
south meaning the cold will be more transitory and have less
moisture to allow for a kind of ana-frontal snow period wednesday
night. temperatures do look to fall back into the 20s wednesday
night though and highs on thursday look to fall back towards
climatological averages, in the 40s.

with the cooler air in mind, attention turns to thursday night/
friday morning when interaction between vort maxes attempting
to phase causes deepening of a low pressure system over the
great lakes. temperatures thursday night appear more marginal,
but perhaps they would have to come down a little from what we
have in there, ranging through the 30s. at the very least, some
mix of snow and rain would be possible. additionally, a strong
low level jet moving through early friday may be enough to make
it breezy to gusty. currently have 30 kt gusts in the forecast,
but the timing of the jet will be key to getting higher gusts
because mismatched mixing and jet passage may limit gusts.

the friday system leaves behind a baroclinic boundary that the
weekend (probably sunday) system will be able to ride along and
develop. coupled jets are currently modeled as being able to help
deepening and development of a system that tracks from il into mi,
which would point to a rain system. track and modeling that far out
can still change between now and then, especially with a baroclinic
boundary in play. the placement of that will be important.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 117 am edt tue mar 10 2026

the stratus deck is beginning to expand across the area, with
observations showing mvfr ceilings developing. a frontal
boundary will be postioned near the indiana-michigan stateline
for much of the morning and afternoon hours today, persistent
low clouds and maybe some patchy fog this morning. there may be
a period of ifr ceilings later this morning, although the exact
timing is unclear. for now, have a tempo group at kfwa and ksbn
for 12-15z, as this is the timeframe that the nbm has the
greatest probabilities for ifr ceilings. showers and storms
will develop this evening potentially as early as 21-00z, but
more likely after 00z. periods of mvfr visibilities and ifr
ceilings will prevail in any thunderstorms. some storms may be
severe late tonight into early wednesday with potential for
wind gusts over 50 kts and large hail.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1218 am edt tue mar 10 2026

.key messages...

- isolated showers possible today, becoming wetter with rising
thunderstorm potential tonight into wednesday. the potential
exists for severe storms early wednesday morning.

- rain showers continue wednesday with brief change over to melting
snow showers by wednesday night possible.

- a clipper system may produce wintry precipitation friday.

&&

.aviation...

southwest winds are carrying lower level moisture into the region that
will interact with a cold front sagging south. this will lead to the
development of mvfr ceilings early this morning before ifr ceilings
eventually arrive by mid-morning. winds north of the boundary will be
north to northeast while south of the boundary will be generally
south to southwest. the boost in moisture and weak lift should be
enough to bring a chance for scattered light showers/drizzle around
mid- morning. the front will gradually slide just south of the
southern metro terminals late this morning/early afternoon. ifr
ceilings should hold through the afternoon along and north of this
boundary. there will remain low chances for scattered showers and a
possible thunderstorm during the afternoon dependent on instability.
greatest thunderstorm threat reside after 00z. there will also be
potential for freezing rain across mbs around 00z this evening as
widespread precipitation expands across the region. confidence is too
low at this time to include in taf, but will get added if confidence
for freezing rain increases.

for dtw...transition to ifr will occur throughout the morning hours
with increasing shower chances ahead of a frontal passage. there is
a low chance for a rumble of thunder with this morning activity.
additional shower and low thunder chances continue through this
afternoon. greater confidence for thunderstorms will arrive after 00z
this evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tomorrow morning and
afternoon.

* low for elevated thunderstorms between 10z and 14z tomorrow
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 pm edt mon mar 9 2026

discussion...

active stretch of weather this week as we continue to reside near
the main baroclinic zone that has been wavering over the great lakes
of late. strong northern stream of the jet will start off the week
nearly zonal but will start becoming more amplified mid week as the
next trough starts working across the country. this trough will
combined with a cutoff low over texas that will be ejecting several
weak waves up into the region during the weak leading to multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. cooler air in the long
term keeps the door open for mixed precip or periods of snow this
weekend.

starting off this afternoon and tonight we`ll have a backdoor cold
front dropping through the area off lake huron which will force the
once stalled front southward tonight. meanwhile, an initial weak
wave embedded in the southwesterly warm air advection will interact
with the front over southern mi to produce a low end pop late
tonight, mainly after 09z. there is a few hundred j/kg of elevated
cape so a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

warm front stalls once again across southern portions of the state
tuesday with continued warm air advection bringing waves of moisture
into the area which could activate showers on elevated portions of
the front through the day. at a minimum it looks like most of the
cwa will reside north of the front which currently looks to set up
around i94. this will lead to a large thermal gradient across
southern mi with highs in the 40s over the northern thumb and lake
huron shoreline and possible into the low 70s near the ohio border.

a stronger wave will lift northeast overnight tuesday bringing the
next chance of severe weather to southern mi. a 40-50 knot low level
jet will bring a surge of theta e up through the region between 00-
06z bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. additional
ribbons of theta e and vorticity will then follow through the night
before a surface low riding up the stalled front starts tracking
through se lower mi 12z wed. as the low approaches it will attempt
to bulge the warm front northward up through m59 by morning. always
a question this time of year as to how far north the warm front will
make it before stalling due to the stable and cool air in place with
the northeasterly flow off the lakes. for those locations along and
south of the warm front severe weather will be possible. low level
jet will be strong leading to good shear and favorable hodographs.
cape will advect into the region with 500-1000 j/kg of surface based
cape and possibly a bit higher in the vicinity of the low itself
early wednesday morning. risks overnight into wed morning include
damaging winds and large hail along with a tornado threat especially
near and along the warm front. spc continues to have most of se mi
in a marginal risk area with a slight risk nosing across sw mi into
the area. upper level northern stream trough will then sweep through
wednesday afternoon pushing the cold front through mi and providing
another opportunity for showers. there is also a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall as qpf tuesday night through wednesday range from
0.75-2 inches.

should be noted that several models and local probabilistic guidance
advertise a chance for freezing rain tuesday evening into the
overnight across mid mi and the thumb as the precip begins with
temps just below freezing. latest nbm solution keeps any mention
farther north out of our cwa. thinking has been, and continues to
be, that the dewpoints won`t be cold enough at the surface to offer
enough cooling to offset the warmth of the rain
due degree of warm air just above the inversion.

models are faster as the trough/cold front clearing out the moisture
with lower probabilities of a deformation band bringing a rain/snow
mix or all snow to the region late wednesday on the backside of the
low. the next compact northern stream shortwave will then target the
area on friday. we`ll be on the colder side of the main baroclinic
zone during this system so expecting mixed phase precip.

marine...

a surface low over south-central ontario has crossed into quebec
this afternoon, preceding the expansion of an elongated trough axis
into the southern great lakes late overnight. gusts drop-off quickly
after sunset with split-flow developing over the central waterways
into tuesday. winds over lake huron veer northeasterly with time
tonight while southerly flow persists to the south. the pressure
gradient sharpens again on tuesday across the huron basin, ahead of
a more active stretch of weather tuesday night into wednesday. non-
thunderstorm wind gusts may approach 30 knots for huron late tuesday
night into wednesday as low pressure, 29.50 inches, lifts across
lower michigan. expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
including some strong to severe storms. all severe hazards will be
possible. the system`s frontal passage eventually leads to cold
advection, a transition to melting snowfall, and steep low-level
lapse rates leading to more efficient mixing. low-end gale potential
exists wednesday night.

hydrology...

widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop tuesday night into
wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward across lower
michigan. expected rainfall totals range from 0.75-1.75 inches by
wednesday evening, followed by a changeover to melting snow from
north to south. ensemble data suggests rises on area rivers will be
expected with a chance for minor flood stage for river systems.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm tuesday to 4 pm edt wednesday for
lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
hydrology....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.