Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
314
fxus61 kcle 042335
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

.what has changed...
the heat advisory was cancelled early and the severe weather
threat is over for this evening. can`t rule out a few more
isolated to scattered thunderstorms but it`s very unlikely that
they pose a severe weather threat as instability has
substantially decreased.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through
monday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. heavy
rain and isolated flash flooding is possible.

2) temperatures will return back to near normal sunday through
tuesday, before becoming slightly above normal towards mid to
late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the story over the next several days will be the potential for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across
the region as a weak low pressure system gradually moves east
from the midwest into the ohio valley through monday. the main
concern with any showers and thunderstorms will be the heavy
rain threat, given a lack of steering flow less than 15 knots,
skinny cape profiles, and anomalously-high pwats around 1.80
inches. some isolated flash flooding (mainly rate-driven up to
2" per hour) is possible where storms persist, though given the
continued chances into monday, will also need to monitor area
rivers for some minor rises. at this time, the overall severe
weather threat remains low sunday into monday given the lack of
flow, though can`t rule out some isolated instances of wet
downbursts in the strongest cells.

key message 2...
anticipate a slight improvement in the overall weather pattern
over the next week as temperatures moderate back to around
normal (low to mid-80s), though maximum heat indices will remain
elevated in the upper 80s to lower 90s. temperatures may rise
slightly above normal by mid to late week in the upper 80s to
near 90, though heat indices should remain below 100.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
vfr is mainly expected this evening and tonight, outside any
additional isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms
(very low coverage/predictability). patchy fog is possible
tonight in central and east-central ohio where afternoon storms
occurred.

a low pressure system and cold front will start to move into
the region sunday and bring periodic rain showers with embedded
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region. there could
be some heavier rain that could bring non- vfr visibility and
ceilings throughout the day on sunday but it`s difficult to
target any specific periods at this time. for now, kept showers
and vfr conditions throughout the day but when confidence
increases, can introduce not-vfr and perhaps some tsra.
afternoon convection will yield slightly higher confidence in
thunderstorms for our southern taf sites (kmfd, kcak, and kyng).

winds will be light and variable overnight into sunday
with the low moving through the region but should eventually
settle on northeast flow for sunday.

outlook...non-vfr with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible through tuesday afternoon. scattered thunderstorms are
also possible thursday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
north to northwest flow will continue over the lake this
afternoon into this evening behind a lake breeze. a low pressure
system will enter for sunday and northeast flow will develop
over the lake and strengthen to 15 kts and waves will build to 2
to 3 ft over the western and central basins. this unfavorable
flow will continue into monday and weaken on tuesday with winds
of 10 kts or less. high pressure will build from the west for
wednesday and thursday and switch winds back to southerly,
offshore flow. there is potential for a small craft advisory
with the northeast flow for sunday and monday if winds can
increase just a touch from the current forecast.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
652
fxus63 kiwx 042349
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
749 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight risk for severe weather today, mainly along
and south of us 24. damaging winds will be the main threat
with strong to severe storms expected between 4-11 pm edt.

- scattered thunderstorm potential continues into sunday; a few storms
may produce gusty winds but severe storms are not expected at
this time.

- dry conditions are expected for the early to middle part of next
week with continued warmth as highs remain in the 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 215 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

happy 4th of july! there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather today along and south of us 24 in indiana and ohio. we are
monitoring a remnant mcv located over eastern ia/western il as of
early this afternoon. storms have developed across northern and
central illinois ahead of this feature and track east/southeast into
our area. satellite imagery shows clearing ongoing across northern
indiana with destabilization expected to occur in the next few
hours. surface observations show temperatures in the mid 70s
with dewpoints around 70 degrees as of 2 pm edt. amidst a
moderately unstable hot and humid airmass overhead, multicell
storm clusters are expected to pose a damaging wind threat
between 4-11 pm edt mainly along and south of us 30. with highs
expected in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, storms should be able to tap into 2000-2500 j/kg of
sbcape. forecast soundings are not as impressive as yesterday
but they do once again depict inverted v profiles with dcape
above 1000 j/kg, which indicates a favorable environment for
damaging winds. other favorable parameters include low level
lapse rates in excess of 8 c/km and pwats around 1.5". even if
storms stay sub- severe, heavy rain and lightning will still be
hazards. isolated instances of flooding may occur given recent
heavy rainfall, saturated ground, and slow storm motions given
weak shear. if you have any outdoor plans for the 4th of july
today and tonight, stay safe and stay cool!

convection evolution is uncertain on sunday due to uncertainty on
placement of remnant outflow boundaries from today`s convection, but
have continued pops for tomorrow afternoon and evening between 40-
70%. another moderate instability with weak shear setup is likely
given that we will be warm and humid once again. scattered storms
may develop in the afternoon and evening that produce gusty winds,
but widespread severe weather is not expected for sunday. given slow
storm motions, i would not be surprised to see heavy rain and
isolated instances of flooding. isolated to scattered storms may
linger into monday, especially along and east of i-69, where 20-40%
pops have been maintained.

a high pressure system then builds into the midwest and great lakes
starting on the later half of the day monday. dry conditions are
expected for the early to middle part of next week with continued
warmth as highs remain in the 80s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 720 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

disturbance currently moving into the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms over the next several hours through about 08-09z
sun. mvfr in lower cigs and vsbys due to precip but there looks
to be overnight mist and will need to watch for patches of fog
that may develop. current thinking is there will be enough lift
in the area to keep it to a more stratus deck but this could
wane after the 08z time frame. at this time kept mention of fog out
but will need to monitor for that potential. chances for
scattered showers and storms (thunderstorms, mainly for kfwa)
increase once again on sunday after 18-20z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
864
fxus63 kdtx 050352
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1152 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

.key messages...

- chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms sunday as a low
pressure system drifts south of the state. there is an even lower
chance for isolated strong to severe storms.

- there is a localized heavy rainfall threat sunday.

&&

.aviation...

prevailing northeast flow working into a very moist resident
environment will tend to favor some degree of low cloud and/or fog
formation early this morning. latest observational trends offer some
support for the southward expansion of ifr to lower mvfr stratus
with time. forecast will highlight a window for this stratus to
emerge locally prior to daybreak. existing visibility restrictions
in haze encouraged by the earlier fireworks will likely linger to
some degree through the night given the weak flow. notably greater
potential for shower and thunderstorm development will focus sunday
afternoon as a mid level trough lingers over the region. high
likelihood for intervals of showers and thunderstorms during this
time, particulaly across the detroit airspace.

d21/dtw convection...chance for thunderstorms exists sunday
afternoon and early evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in thunderstorms sunday afternoon and early evening.

* medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet at times tonight and sunday
morning. low sunday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 322 pm edt sat jul 4 2026

discussion...

active holiday weekend is underway across se michigan as heat and
humidity fuel thunderstorm chances today and sunday. extended
stretch of above normal temperatures has generally come to an end
with temperatures now in the mid 80s, and even cooler high
temperatures (low 80s) sunday through tuesday as a weak cold front
drops across lower michigan rest of today and tonight. this occurs
as high pressure expands south into ontario.

the front will be the main driver of scattered thunderstorm chances
this afternoon-evening. have already seen activity light up along
the convergence axis, which will migrate south between now and
roughly 02z (10pm) tonight. the main limiting factor to convective
vigor is the marginal instability profiles, as mid-level lapse rates
are only about 5.0-5.5 c/km. that said, if the outflow from these
storms can constructively merge into an organized cold pool this
could offset some of the instability limitations. latest thinking
from a severe standpoint is that these storms will be capable of
gusts 40-60 mph as they track south-southeast through the evening
hours. will also need to keep an eye on the mcs that is developing
over northern illinois. models have shifted slightly, now hinting at
the mcs clipping into lower mi later tonight. if this occurs, still
looking at wind as the main threat but would mean higher pops
continuing across the south overnight.

the perturbation driving this feature is forecast to move across the
ohio valley late tonight, with several additional waves then
forecast to follow in its footsteps until the main trough axis
arrives sunday afternoon. as this occurs, the mid level deformation
axis eventually forms into a closed low. all of these waves will be
capable of engaging the moisture-rich, unstable airmass to keep
showers and storms going overnight, particularly south of m-59. much
of this will be ongoing upstream activity that advects into the
area, similar to what we have seen over the past 24 hours.

arrival of the synoptic trough sunday afternoon strengthens the
signal for an extended period of deformation over se michigan. plan-
view wind plots show potential for a convergence axis to develop
over ontario, which would be capable of sending multiple rounds of
slow-moving showers/storms into the detroit metro region sunday.
this combined with the slow storm motion (~10 knots), a moisture-
rich environment (pwat of at least 1.8 inches, dewpoints in the low
70s), and modest instability all point toward a heightened heavy
rainfall risk starting sunday and ending when the deformation axis
pushes east. there will also be an isolated damaging wind threat due
to precipitation loaded cores. when this deformation axis dislodges
is inconsistent in the current model suite, ranging sometime between
sunday night and tuesday. this equates to a low predictability setup
for the early week period which could include persistent rain
chances. more details on the heavy rainfall threat in the hydrology
section.

cooler temperatures expected early next week, followed by another
heat spell mid-week as high pressure/upper level ridging build in.
nbm high temperatures once again approach 90 degrees, although se
michigan will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge which tends
to be more open to the storm track. this expecting an active late
week period.

marine...

ongoing progression of a cold front which has now cleared the saginaw
bay and southern lake huron will continue to progress south this
evening across lake st. clair and lake erie. this will pivot wind
direction from the northeast and will bring the continued chance for
isolated/scattered showers or thunderstorms. outside of any
thunderstorm development, ambient winds remain on the lighter side
this weekend and into early next week as high pressure system builds
in. additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist again tomorrow
across the southern great lakes, but otherwise the early week period
will remain dry.

hydrology...

several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist through
the holiday weekend within a favorable environment for heavy
rainfall. a swath of 1+ inch rainfall fell over the i-94 corridor
last night with half inch reports in many other locations. any
additional storms that develop within this environment will be slow-
moving and capable of rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour.
a heightened opportunity for heavy rainfall exists sunday and sunday
night with potential for a convergence axis to develop over ontario
and establish a band of training showers and storms into the urban
areas of the detroit metro region. this could result in localized
storm totals in excess of 2 inches. confidence in this type of
pattern however is low and the model signal is weak, but if this does
occur there is increased potential for flash flooding especially in
urban, low-lying, and flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......am
hydrology....mv

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.