Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
528
fxus61 kcle 191115
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
715 am edt wed aug 19 2026

.what has changed...
pops and qpf have trended further north for tonight, resulting
in an increased risk of heavy rainfall in the southern half of
the area. shower/thunderstorm chances are also increasing for
saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms likely today and tonight.
heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible in the southern
half of the area tonight.

2) an unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will meander south/southeast towards the area
today, resulting in chances of scattered showers and storms
across the area during the day today. at this point, instability
will likely be too low for severe weather concerns. more
widespread rain will arrive overnight the front pushes south
and better moisture moves into the area, but there is still some
uncertainty in how far north the showers will be and where the
heaviest rain will occur. recent cams have shifted significantly
farther north with the highest qpf axis, and moderate to heavy
rainfall is possible generally south of us-30 this evening into
early thursday morning as pwats increase to nearly 2 inches.
there are also concerns for training as showers/storms move west
to east parallel to the frontal boundary. soils are saturated
in the southern part of the area after recent heavy rainfall so
it won`t take much to flood if heavy rainfall does materialize
in the local area. will need to keep an eye on guidance trends
over the next forecast cycle. wpc has introduced a slight ero
(level 2 of 4) to the southern half of the area to account for
the northward shift in heavy rainfall potential.

the pace of the front has slowed considerably and scattered
showers remain possible in the southeastern half of the area
through late thursday morning and possibly as late as thursday
afternoon.

key message 2...
dry weather is expected as high pressure builds into the region
thursday night through friday, but unsettled weather will return
to the region over the weekend as a series of upper troughs push
across the great lakes. the most widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely occur saturday afternoon into saturday
evening as the first upper trough moves east across the area.
the region will be in the warm sector so there will be plenty of
moisture and likely sufficient instability to warrant at least
an isolated severe weather threat, but confidence in the exact
timing and placement of storms remains relatively low this far
out. will need to continue to monitor the severe weather
potential in the coming days. additional showers and storms are
likely across ne oh and nw pa as the secondary trough pushes
across the region sunday, although it`s likely that precip
associated with this feature will be lake-enhanced.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a cold front will bring light, scattered rain showers this
morning, with largely vfr conditions expected. brief periods of
mvfr ceilings will be possible, with showers and for a couple
hours behind the departing showers later this morning into the
early afternoon.

the cold front stalls over the area, and additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight mainly
along and south of us-30, though it`s possible they could extend
farther north (there`s some uncertainty in this regard). for
now, highest confidence is along our southern taf sites
(including kfdy, kmfd, kcak, and kyng). thunderstorm potential
is mainly before midnight. non-vfr may occur with lower
visibility in heavier showers/storms.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
areawide on saturday, before becoming more focused along the
lakeshore areas of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
saturday night. additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible east of i-77 on sunday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will work its way southeast across the lake this
morning. showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, and
could produce waterspouts. southwest winds around 15 to 20 knots
are possible, especially in the central and eastern basin,
producing waves in the 2 to 4 ft range. there is a moderate risk
of rip currents.

the cold front moves south of the lake by mid-afternoon,
allowing for conditions to improve. high pressure builds in
overhead by thursday night before departing to the east friday
and friday night.

low pressure builds into the great lakes region on saturday with
showers and thunderstorms likely affecting lake erie, especially
during the afternoon. strong wind gusts may be possible.
southwest flow of around 10 to 15 knots is expected initially
before the cold front crosses saturday evening and northwest
flow around 15 knots produces waves in the 2 to 4 ft range
saturday night into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
037
fxus63 kiwx 191016
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
616 am edt wed aug 19 2026

.key messages...

- chances for showers and storms (30-60 percent)this afternoon
and evening, with the best potential along and south of us 30.
heavy rain is possible at times. severe weather is not
expected. patchy to areas of fog this morning.

- dry conditions with variable cloud cover thursday into friday
before chances for showers and storms return fri night into
saturday, with the best potential (50-70 percent) along and
east of interstate 69 saturday afternoon.

- hazardous swimming conditions are possible for lake mi beaches
along berrien co, mi and la porte county, in this weekend,
especially on sunday. dangerous currents and waves are
possible. monitor the beach forecast for updates.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 603 am edt wed aug 19 2026

rain showers (isolated thunder/lightning) moved through the cwa
overnight along a pre-frontal trough. the last of these is exiting
lima, oh as of this writing, and expect dry conditions through mid-
late afternoon. with calm winds and recent rain, fog is being
reported mainly in la porte/starke/st joseph co, in are reporting
visibilities of around 1/4 to 1 sm, but with increase in high cloud
cover expect this to improve (especially after sunrise). have areas
of fog/patchy fog in the forecast through the late morning mainly in
the western half of our cwa. it`s possible we need an sps if the
visibilities less than 1sm persist or become more widespread in the
next hour or so.

a stationary front drapes from southern ontario into southern lake
mi where a weak sfc low pressure lingers. a cold front (rather
diffuse and continuing to weaken) extends southwestward through
chicago, il. we`ll probably see a slight uptick in winds as we head
into the later morning with any movement of this front (which could
help improve visibilities). where the front ends up is a point of
conflict amongst the model guidance-wpc has the front extending into
se lower mi down through white county, in by 8 pm edt tonight,
enhanced somewhat by the lake breeze from lake mi this afternoon and
weak moisture advection from the southwest. some of the guidance has
the orientation a bit more e-w along us 30 and southward, so that is
where i focused the higher pops/qpf (30-60 percent) late this
afternoon and evening. aloft, a weak shortwave ripples through
somewhat zonal flow and the broader trough base begins to move in
overnight, shunting everything south and eastward.

south of us 30 there could be potential for heavier showers and
storms that move over the same areas (including many who have seen
flooding), and thus neighboring offices (lot/ind) have a flood watch
out from this afternoon into tonight-assuming the frontal zone
develops further south and lingers in their area longer. for now,
our area appears to only see the persistent showers and/or storms
for a limited time late this afternoon/early evening before the
boundary moves out. in collaboration with cle/iln opted to hold
off on any flood watch at this point given lower confidence in
any impacts-the forecast is a little on the high side (up to
around 0.75-1 inch this afternoon into tonight) of guidance, and
i do not expect that to cause much in the way of impacts flood
wise. most of the ensembles/guidance has less than 1 inch, with
some of the outliers higher. if the later guidance comes in with
the boundary forming and lingering further north, the day shift
may need to consider issuing a watch in collaboration with
iln/cle. wpc has our southern areas in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall for now (marginal outside of that). severe
weather is not expected today-we have weaker mid level lapse
rates (5-6.5 c/km) and weak forcing. spc has our area in a
general thunder (marginal risk just to our south). we do have
decent sfc cape/incoming moisture especially in the south and
west, along with around 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. however
winds up to around 700 mb are fairly light-so think our risk of
any strong winds is pretty limited.

thursday into friday will be dry, with highs in the 70s, low 80s.
chances for rain showers and storms (20-50 percent) return friday
night into saturday as a cold front moves through from west to east
during the period. there are higher chances of 50 to 70 percent
saturday afternoon-mainly east of i 69. however, it`s dependent on
the location of the front by the late afternoon/evening. some of the
guidance has convection really developing between 21-00z just east
of our cwa border, others keep it further west to start. at this
point, severe weather is not expected.

mostly dry for sunday/mon as an upper level low drops into the great
lakes (could be further north in ontario, depends on model). cooler
northwest flow across lake mi will bring waves up to around 2-3 feet
for saturday afternoon and up to around 3-5 feet for sunday. there
is a moderate/high swim risk forecast for berrien/la porte county
beaches, worst conditions on sunday.


&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 603 am edt wed aug 19 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period,
except this morning at ksbn where lifr/ifr ceilings/visibility
persist as of this writing. have tempo down to 1/4sm fg with
vv001 until 13z for now. its possible that conditions improve to
closer to 1sm just after 12z with sunrise/slight uptick in
westerly winds behind a diffuse cold front, and incoming cloud
cover. otherwise, showers and storms are possible this
afternoon/evening, mainly at kfwa. have prob 30 group to
account for this.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
885
fxus63 kdtx 191051
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
651 am edt wed aug 19 2026

.key messages...

- low chance of a shower or thunderstorm today near the ohio border;
dry conditions prevail elsewhere today and thursday.

- showers and thunderstorms return friday night, with the highest
coverage and best chances on saturday.

- temperatures remain near normal through the period.

&&

.aviation...

lower vfr with pockets of mvfr stratus are working across se mi this
morning following last night`s cold frontal passage. increasing
diurnal mixing and drier air being advected into the region supports
a lifting/scattering trend in low cloud for the latter half of the
morning. lingering frontal boundary over northern ohio could
generate a few afternoon showers however these are favored to stay
south of the terminals. this does keep mid-cloud around for the day
before building high pressure leads to gradual overnight clearing.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast for the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet first half of this
morning, low be early afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 324 am edt wed aug 19 2026

discussion...

a large and seasonably strong upper level low (544 dam at 500 mb) is
centered over james bay early this morning and looks to exert its
influence through the rest of the workweek. respectable height falls
this morning supported light showers with the slowly advancing cold
front, although thunderstorms were hard pressed to materialize, as
expected with the limited instability. the front looks to wash out
close to the southern michigan border as a weak pv filament breaks
off from trailing shortwave over the midwest and tracks through
southern lower michigan late today. a secondary 850-750 mb theta-e
ridge is expected to track south of eight mile road this afternoon,
bringing enough instability near the southern michigan border to
offer up a low chance of shower or thunderstorm.

otherwise, upper level confluent flow sets in, strong subsidence/mid
level drying will allow for dry conditions tonight and thursday as
high pressure (1018 mb) translates east through the central great
lakes. a series of shortwaves is then on track to reinforce
troughing over the great lakes region. the first one arrives friday
evening/night, with a second, stronger shortwave arriving saturday
that has the potential to cut off over the central/eastern great
lakes saturday night into sunday. numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are likely on saturday. a lower chance of showers
continues into sunday under cool cyclonic flow around as 850 mb
temps drop below 10 c.

temperatures look to remain near normal through the forecast period.
high temperatures will generally hover within a few degrees of 80
degrees depending on the day, with overnight lows dropping into the
50s most nights.

marine...

northwest flow takes hold this morning in the wake of a departing
cold front. high pressure will fill in through the day which will
promote light winds and dry weather, and will bring some more
variable wind direction by the afternoon before veering winds east
for portions of the southern great lakes. high pressure holds
through friday morning before departing east across the continental
northeast. active weather returns friday afternoon and into the
weekend as a cold front moves through the region. rain showers and
thunderstorms will become increasingly likely ahead of and along the
cold front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.