Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
614
fxus61 kcle 230733
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
333 am edt thu jul 23 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures and dry conditions will trend towards
seasonal values by saturday.

2) shower and thunderstorm chances return sunday through
tuesday. confidence is increasing for a few stronger storms
during this timeframe.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the upper-level trough responsible for the cooler airmass over
the region will gradually exit east into new england today as a
large upper ridge begins to expand east into the midwest and
great lakes into saturday. mainly dry and seasonable weather
will continue as surface high pressure remains across the area.
a few showers or storms are possible across far northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania saturday afternoon as a weak
shortwave moves east through the lower great lakes, aided by a
developing lake breeze.

temperatures will gradually warm in the mid to upper 70s today,
increasing into the low to mid-80s by saturday.

key message 2...
confidence is increasing for a few stronger storms beginning
late sunday into tuesday as several potent shortwaves traverse
the base of a strong upper-level trough across hudson bay.

there will be a couple of periods to watch for developing
storms, the first of which appears to be sunday night into
monday as a leading shortwave enters the lower great lakes,
though confidence is a bit lower given the more mesoscale
dynamics at play. slightly higher confidence exists for a more
widespread strong thunderstorm potential in the monday night
into tuesday timeframe with convection supported by the passage
of a potent mid and upper-level trough. given the favorable
northwesterly shear and anticipated linear storm mode, if any
storms were to become strong to severe, damaging wind gusts
appear to be the primary hazard. will continue to monitor the
threat over the next couple of forecast iterations.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr. sct cumulus field develops with peak daytime heating hours
fl045 and winds less than 10kts, generally out of the north at
the surface. cumulus field dissipates late evening/sunset.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms sunday through monday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure today brings light onshore winds with wave heights
1ft or less. winds become offshore tonight, and then
northeasterly friday with wave heights greatest in the central
basin at around 1ft. winds westerly 5-10kts saturday with wave
heights continuing to remain a foot or less. winds become
southwest sunday and monday with wave heights 1-2ft east of
cleveland and around 1ft west towards the islands.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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942
fxus63 kiwx 230921
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
521 am edt thu jul 23 2026

.key messages...

- dry, cooler, and less humid conditions continue today with highs
in the upper 70s.

- trending warmer into the weekend. hot and humid with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s by sunday and monday.

- a few isolated storms possible sunday with a 20% chance.
better chances up to 40-60% on monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1258 am edt thu jul 23 2026

this morning will be the coolest of the upcoming week with
widespread lows in the low 50s. it is possible that some of our
rural, low lying areas see a low in the upper 40s this morning. nbm
probabilities currently have about 20-35% chances this morning,
while chances are less than 5% for fort wayne and south bend, where
lows will be a touch higher, likely closer to 51-52 degrees.

tranquil weather continues today with dry conditions and low
humidity. high pressure current centered over the upper midwest will
slowly build across the great lakes in the coming days. dry
conditions are expected to continue through saturday with this high
pressure system eventually overhead. high temperatures today will be
a bit warmer than yesterday but still only topping out in the upper
70s! today and tonight will be great opportunities to open up
windows, with temperatures dropping into the 50s once again
overnight. lows in the 50s, while unusual from the heat and humidity
we have been experiencing recently, are not that uncommon in july.
we typically average about 5 nights with lows below 60 degrees in
july.

temperatures trend much warmer into the weekend. moisture increases
as waa ramps up, which means humidity starts increasing too. hot and
humid conditions return by sunday and monday with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
increased evapotranspiration from crops may also aid in locally
higher dewpoints. our forecast area will be split in between a
trough to our east and a large upper level ridge to our west.
pattern recognition tells me this is a favorable set up for a
potentially active pattern into early next week with northwest
flow aloft. a frontal system brings the next chances for
rain/storms late sunday into monday, although confidence is
uncertain on exact timing. models have been trending drier for
sunday with precipitation chances that currently sit around 20%;
monday`s chances are higher at 20-60%. any storms that develop
may be able to ride the edge of the upper level ridge through
our area. if we can get sufficent instability and moisture,
severe weather is not out of the question for sunday and
especially monday. confidence is very low given the high spread
in deterministic and ensemble model guidance.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 521 am edt thu jul 23 2026

no changes for the 12z taf forecast period. high pressure
building in across the upper midwest and great lakes regions
will allow for dry conditions and mostly clear skies with vfr
ceilings to prevail. winds will be light and variable through
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
187
fxus63 kdtx 230713
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
313 am edt thu jul 23 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected through the
rest of the workweek.

- next chance for showers/storms arrives late saturday night into
sunday while temperatures climb into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.discussion...

an upper level jet streak will eject through the basal
subgeostrophic portion of eastern north america troughing today
causing significant filling of geopotential heights over the central
great lakes for the end of the week. low to midlevel temperatures
will steadily moderate over the coming days with 850mb temperatures
now at +7c to +8c rising +12c to +13c by friday evening. high
temperatures today are expected to be in the upper 70s with low to
middle 80s by saturday. strong upper level low pressure system over
hudson bay will help facilitate well organized northwest flow and
troughing over the great by late saturday and sunday.

models have been adamant in forecasting an abundance of shortwave
energy digging through lower michigan in northwest flow the latter
half of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. from this
vantage point, precipitation chances appear to be scattered during
the late weekend period with the strongest synoptic support for low
pressure arriving sometime late monday or tuesday. conditions
project to be very warm and humid sunday through tuesday with
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.marine...

slowly warming airmass over the next couple of days, as 850 mb temps
reach around 12 c on friday. with the center of the surface ridge
over the southern great lakes today into friday, the lightest winds
will be over lake st. clair and lake erie. even over lake huron,
wind speeds should remain predominately under 20 knots. a surface
trough slowly passing through during the weekend will bring a good
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, though winds are
expected to remain light.

the next notable storm system arrives on monday, as low pressure
tracks across the northern great lakes. strong thunderstorms are
possible as the cold front works through the central great lakes
during the evening hours. northerly winds behind this system monday
night into tuesday have the potential to reach and exceed 20 knots
for a period of time.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1203 am edt thu jul 23 2026

aviation...

ideal vfr aviation weather is provided by a broad area of midwest
high pressure as it builds into southern lower mi and the ohio
valley late tonight and thursday. after clear sky and light wind
during the night, a fair weather cumulus field returns in the
afternoon but with less coverage compared to wednesday. these clouds
dissipate in favor of clear sky again thursday night.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......sf
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.