Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
852
fxus61 kcle 080816
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
416 am edt thu oct 8 2026

.what has changed...
relative humidiy has trended down across portions of the area today
and friday. confidence has increased in rain on sunday and have lowered
high temperatures.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry fall weather expected today through saturday. low relative
humidity and breezy winds in northwest ohio will result in elevated
fire weather concerns for this afternoon.

2) the remnants of hurricase isaias will bring widespread rain to
most of the area late saturday night through sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
dry northwest flow conditions expected today in the wake of a
cold front that crossed the area wednesday evening. high
temperatures today will average about 10 degrees cooler than the
previous day. surface high pressure will start out over the
upper midwest this morning before gradually building into ohio
this evening. the pressure gradient will support breezy
northwest winds, gusting to 15-20 mph this afternoon. in
addition, relative humidity will tend to drop to 25-30 percent
in northwest ohio which could support fire spread if any were to
develop. fuels are considered to be a little too wet to need a
fire weather headline. the flow off lake erie will keep humidity
values slightly higher across the eastern half of the forecast
area.

high pressure and clear skies tonight will allow for good
radiational cooling. inland temperatures will drop to the lower 40s
and can not rule out a couple of the typically cooler spots reaching
the upper 30s. this should be just slightly too warm for frost
formation. temperatures will trend warmer friday into saturday as
the upper level trough moves off the new england coast and the upper
level ridge expands north into the ohio valley. several areas across
northwest ohio and over to cleveland could reach 80 degrees on
saturday.

key message 2...
hurricane isaias has developed in the carribean
and is forecast to track north to the alabama coast by late friday.
the system will weaken after making landfall but is expected to
track slightly northwest towards the mid-mississippi valley on
saturday as strong high pressure remains over new england. moisture
associated with this system will spread north ahead of the low, with
rain beginning from south to north across the local area late
saturday night into sunday morning. at this time the heaviest swath
of rain is forecast to be along and south of route 30. forecast rain
amounts range from a half inch towards toledo to just over an inch
closer to central ohio. there will also be a low end threat of
thunderstorms across mainly central and northeast ohio. we will need
to keep an eye on downsloping winds towards erie, pa ahead of this
system which could exceed 35 mph, depending on the track of the
system. we will continue to monitor rainfall potential but at this
time flooding is not expected. given the fairly widespread nature of
the rain, trended high temperatures down a couple degrees for
sunday. we will see a mid-level dry slot try to wrap north into the
system on sunday afternoon which could reduce the coverage of
showers. pops remain into sunday night for all but extreme norhwest
ohio.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr is expected through the taf period. winds will generally be
out of the west at 5 to 10 knots early this morning before
becoming more northwesterly and increasing to 8 to 14 knots
with gusts to around 20 knots by late morning/early afternoon.
expect winds to diminish below 10 knots near or shortly after
00z friday.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain showers on sunday.

&&

.marine...
west northwest winds of 15-20 knots continue on central and eastern
lake erie this morning while starting to decrease on the western
half of the lake. have cancelled the small craft advisory west of
avon as winds and waves have dropped below criteria. the small craft
advisory ends for the nearshore waters off of cleveland at 4 pm and
at 8 pm for the nearshore waters east of willowick. a brief increase
in winds is expected tonight and may have a few hour window where
conditions are marginal for needing another small craft advisory
between 10 pm and 4 am. after that, high pressure building east
through the ohio valley will bring improving conditions for friday
and saturday. we will be monitoring the remnants of isaias as it
tracks northeast through the ohio valley on sunday. winds will be on
the increase again monday night ahead of the next front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lez146.
small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez147>149.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...15
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
722
fxus63 kiwx 081007
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
607 am edt thu oct 8 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions expected today with highs around 70 and low
afternoon humidities.

- a few sprinkles are possible near lake michigan friday evening.

- more widespread light rain is expected early sunday,
especially east of i-69, associated with the remnants of
isaias. no significant impacts are anticipated.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 250 am edt thu oct 8 2026

large surface high on the upwind/subsident side of deep eastern
canada trough will slide across our area today and ensure another
pleasant weather day. expect just some passing high clouds and highs
around 70f. there are some nonzero fire wx concerns today. forecast
soundings show relatively deep mixing into a very dry airmass.
surface dewpoints likely crash into the upper 30s this afternoon
yielding rh values around 30 percent. surface gradient is not
particularly strong but deep mixing may yield some gusts up to 20
mph. these values are still safely below red flag criteria and ten
hour fuel moistures are still above 10 percent but we often see a
few field/combine fires across the area in these conditions during
harvest time.

surface high slides to the southeast tonight and return flow ramps
up during the day friday. several solutions still show some light
rain showers developing on the nose of the best llj/theta-e surge
set to clip our far nw cwa fri evening. added some low chance pop`s
to account for this but the low level moisture surge will be
significantly impacted by antecedent dry conditions and any rain
amounts will be very light. sw flow/waa will push highs well into
the 70s on fri and to around 80f on sat. clouds increase late sat
but dry conditions will hold through the daytime hours.

attention then turns to the remnants of isaias still set to lift
into the ohio valley sat night into sunday. while exact details
regarding the track and subsequent rainfall amounts in our cwa still
show some variability, there is increasing concensus that the
heaviest rain will lift through central and eastern ohio while our
cwa only receives a glancing blow of light rain. the only area to
watch for some brief moderate rain will be our far se around
portland to lima but even there not expecting enough to cause any
impacts. the remnants of isaias look to get quickly absorbed into
the mean westerlies with the best tropical moisture plume riding
along and east of the appalachians. the main circulation weakens
substantially by the time it reaches ohio and even wind gusts look
to remain below 30 mph. will obviously continue to watch this period
closely but overall little/no impacts anticipated for our cwa.

rain exits late in the day sunday but another cold front arrives
with our next chance of rain mon night. after one more day near 80f
on monday, highs drop back into the 60s for the middle of next week
with lows well into the 40s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 606 am edt thu oct 8 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals, with light west-
northwest flow becoming calm/variable tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
538
fxus63 kdtx 081033
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
633 am edt thu oct 8 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with cool to seasonable temperatures today and
friday; chilly tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

- much warmer saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees.

- next significant chance of rain arrives for the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

broad troughing aloft will remain immediately north of southern
lower michigan today keeping mid to upper level temperatures
relatively warm. forecast soundings support very strong static
stability in the 5.0 to 20.0 kft agl layer. surface high pressure
upstream will keep a northwest gradient flow in place over the area
with wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots this afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 255 am edt thu oct 8 2026

discussion...

latest water vapor imagery clearly shows the upper level trough
swinging through the great lakes region this morning, modestly
amplifying as it moves into new england today. the parent upper
level low (539 dam at 500 mb) over james bay will slowly track east
through quebec on friday. this results in cool to seasonable
conditions today and friday before a big warm up occurs on saturday.

still looking at 850 mb temps bottoming out at 3 to 4 c tonight.
with the center of high pressure over the ohio valley, winds may
fail to fully decouple, keeping mins elevated in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. this is also supported by forecasted surface dew pts
holding in that range.

an active warm front over eastern iowa on friday, but consensus is
is now for the low level jet and instability axis/negative showalter
values to reside northwest of southern lower michigan friday night.
thus, dry forecast generally looks ok, but nbm pops appear to be too
low near zero. trended forecast toward silent 14% pop, as the 3z
rap/00 nam show concern with for some potential light showers,
especially over tri-cities region.

speaking of farther west, warm 20 c 850 mb temps are now progged to
track into the upper peninsula late saturday, with 17-18 c progged
over southeast michigan underneath a pronounced upper level ridge
axis. with 925 mb temps still advertised at 19 to 20 c per the 00z
nam and surface winds out of the southwest, maxes around 80 degrees
still seem likely.

the forecast for the second half of the weekend into monday will
still be determined by what happens to the remnants of the tropical
system. trends suggests the center will reach into the southern ohio
valley by sunday evening, before be shunting off to the northeast.
this would lead to limited rainfall. however, the forecast can still
change based off the track, size, and strength of hurricane isaias.

marine...

post-frontal airmass in-place across the central great lakes
features veered west-northwest flow and an uptick in speeds. this
stems from an upper level jet positioned over the region and a 25-35
knot low-level below. stability will decrease with time as diurnal
mixing improves to deliver elevated afternoon gustiness. potential
still exists for a period of gusts near 30 knots over portions of
lake huron this afternoon. marginal gusts to gales are possible for
northern huron, closer to the straits, where the low-level jet winds
could exceed 35 knots at 3 kft awl. lower column winds are expected
to hold just below 25 knots, therefore no small craft advisory was
issued. if observation trends conflict, a zero lead time product may
be needed over the thumb. additionally, higher end gusts further
north should be infrequent enough to preclude a gale warning.
mid/upper mississippi valley high pressure then expands into the
area tonight and friday offering weaker winds with a southerly shift.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.