Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
998
fxus61 kcle 270807
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
407 am edt fri mar 27 2026

.what has changed...
with the cold front through the forecast area, the severe threat is
over for this event. rain will continue overnight and there could
still be some isolated flooding with training convection. there is a
slight chance of snow late tonight into saturday with a shortwave.

&&

.key messages...
1) the severe weather threat has ended for the area this morning.
rain will continue overnight and there could still be some
isolated/nuisance flooding with training convection during the pre-
dawn hours.

2) cool weather is expected through sunday with some minor snow
chances late tonight into saturday morning. no snow accumulations or
impacts from the snow are expected at this time.

3) the weather pattern returns to unsettled from monday through much
of next week with above normal temperatures and thunderstorm chances
tuesday through thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the cold front is through the forecast area early this morning,
ending the severe weather threat with this event. all attention has
turned toward the training convection moving parallel with the cold
frontal boundary. the front continues to sag south and the batch of
rain continues to move subtly south with it. expect rain to continue
over the next couple of hours with an additional 0.10-0.50" of rain
through dawn. some isolated or nuisance flooding will be possible
with the training convection, but so far, the area has been able to
absorb the rainfall fairly well and the threat to life or property
with flooding will diminish quickly today.

key message 2...
cold high pressure will build into the forecast area today and last
through sunday morning. this system will allow for below normal
temperatures to return. high temperatures were achieved early this
morning in the 40s and will remain stationary in the 30s to lower
40s today into saturday. low temperatures will be in the 20s to
lower 30s tonight and saturday night. a shortwave will move through
late tonight into saturday. there should be a bit of moisture
remaining and the lift from this wave should allow for some minor
snow chances overnight and have introduced a slight chance of snow.
overall, snow accumulations and impacts will be negligible.

key message 3...
the theme for next week will be warmer but unsettled weather. the
high pressure system will push east on sunday and allow a warm front
to enter the region, allowing temperatures to return to the 50s.
warmer, moist air will continue on monday, allowing for increasing
rain chances. another warm front will enter on tuesday, surging
temperatures into the 60s and 70s again, but will allow for another
round of showers and storms across the region. a cold front will
cross through the area on wednesday, introducing another window for
showers and storms and knocking temperatures down a touch. a low
pressure system will pass just to the south of the area on thursday
and may also allow for some showers and storms to develop. overall,
it is too early to tell if there is severe weather potential on
tuesday, wednesday, or thursday, but the forecast is worth
monitoring as the calendar flips to april.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
light to moderate stratiform rain, with some mvfr vis, remains
across most of the area at 6z, though is ending at eri and will
end from north to south through 11z this morning. otherwise,
fairly widespread ifr ceilings have developed. these ceilings
will only slowly improve to mvfr as early as 8z at tol but
taking until perhaps close to midday towards mfd and cak.
ceilings will continue to gradually lift or just scatter out to
vfr later friday afternoon into friday night as drier low-level
air filters in. a disturbance may bring some snow showers to
northern and eastern terminals friday night, though confidence
is low and any restrictions would be brief, so for now will
mention it here but not in the tafs.

north-northeast winds will be brisk at 12-16kt with some 20-25kt
gusts through 12-15z, before gradually shifting more north-
northwest and diminishing later this morning and this afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible on monday with rain showers/
thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
brisk north to northeast winds in the 15-25kt range will
continue this morning, driving small craft advisories.
advisories have been expanded to include all nearshore waters in
our forecast area, as the wind and wave forecast trended a bit
higher for this morning. winds will diminish later this morning
into this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds in and
the gradient relaxes. winds shift more southerly late sunday
through monday, remaining generally under 20 knots. south-
southwest winds increase more into tuesday ahead of the next
cold front, which crosses tuesday night or wednesday and shifts
winds north-northwest. small craft advisories may be needed in
association with that front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until noon edt today for lez142-143-148-
149.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez144>147.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
713
fxus63 kiwx 270559
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
159 am edt fri mar 27 2026

.key messages...

- rain exits during the early morning and dry conditions are
expected through monday.

- it will be much cooler today and saturday with highs in the
40s but temps slowly return to the 70s by tuesday.

- additional rain and storms are likely monday night through
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 159 am edt fri mar 27 2026

postfrontal rain continues to slowly sink se early this morning with
some brief shortwave ridging yielding high pressure/subsidence over
the central great lakes. anticipate dry conditions everywhere by
sunrise. some pockets of heavier rain may continue to support
minor/nuisance ponding in low areas but overall flood threat remains
minimal due to waning instability and quick storm motions. dry
conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. there is a
secondary (much more potent) midlevel shortwave digging into the
great lakes tonight. it`s not out of the question to see a few
flurries in our n/ne zones overnight but seems that the degree of
dry/stable air in place will preclude any precip and currently
holding with a dry forecast. it will be cool today and sat as 850mb
temps drop near -10c tonight in strong caa. calendar-day highs
likely already set in many locations. temps will continue to drop
through the morning and then hold steady or rise just a few degrees
during the afternoon given decreasing clouds. lows tonight drop well
into the 20s under steady north wind and just partly cloudy skies.
temps begin to rebound sat with plenty of sun and some late day waa
but the waa really ramps up on sun. there could even be a few
showers on sun given strengthening waa but will hold off mentioning
for now. next good chance of rain arrives mon night and persists
through wed (though there will be breaks, of course). another
midlevel trough crosses the great lakes with strong theta-e
advection ahead of a sharp cold front crossing tue night/wed. this
is a very similar setup to the previous few events and will have to
keep an eye on another potential round of severe weather. forecast
for late next week is very uncertain given some wild inconsistencies
from model to model and run to run but overall looks like the active
pattern will be here for a while.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 159 am edt fri mar 27 2026

mvfr to ifr conditions are expected through the first portion of the
period, with n-ne winds intermittently gusting to around 20-25 knots
through around 9z or so. light rain will persist at kfwa through
around 9-10z. periods of visibility dropping to around 4sm and
ceilings as low as 800ft are possible through that time frame.
current observations surrounding the terminal and just upstream
range anywhere from 500-1000ft at the lowest, to around 1500ft.
expect these to filter into kfwa within the next few hours at least
intermittently. otherwise expect around 1500-2000ft. improvement to
vfr is expected by late morning at both sites, and winds shift back
to the n-nw. gusts up to 20-25kts are possible at kfwa friday
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning until 5 am edt early this morning for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
279
fxus63 kdtx 270720
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 am edt fri mar 27 2026

.key messages...

- notably colder conditions today as most areas hold in the 30s
with 20s in the thumb.

- passing low brings flurries and widely scattered snow showers
tonight. some minor accumulations of a dusting to a few tenths
possible mainly in the saginaw valley/thumb.

- warming trend into the weekend with dry conditions.

&&

.discussion...

north-northeast flow in place to start the day in the wake of last
evening`s cold front as upper troughing settles over the great
lakes. this maintains steady cold advection into se mi through the
day further supplemented by flow off lake huron. result is a
downright cold day for the thumb as highs fall to break freezing,
instead ranging 25-30f. rest of the region only fares slightly
better with most areas only topping out in the mid to upper 30s and
only limited potential to hit 40f south of m-59.

a partially shearing mid-upper shortwave embedded within the
energetic jet across the upper midwest is set to reach the great
lakes late this evening before quickly crossing the central lakes
overnight. as it does, a secondary cold front is driven through
southern lower mi. moisture-starved wave lends to lower precip
coverage however high-res model soundings advertise sufficient
ascent along the 900-700mb frontal slope to support widely scattered
snow showers- particularly towards the tri-cites/thumb owing to
their proximity to the parent vort max. these northern areas stand
the best chance at seeing minor accumulating snow from a quick
dusting to a few tenths of inch (for locales that see a snow
shower). otherwise the bulk of the region favored to see only
flurries with only isolated, brief light snow showers capable of a
dusting at most. core of thermal troughing follows the front as
850mb temps fall to near -14c and saturday morning lows bottom out
in the lower 20s.

surface high pressure passes through the ohio valley over the course
of saturday shifting local low level flow back to the southwest
latter half of the day. only modest recovery in temperatures occurs
saturday itself as thermal troughing is slowly but steadily eroded
with highs remaining in the lower 40s to upper 30s. low amplitude
upper ridging expands over the great lakes from the plains sunday
into monday maintaining the moderating trend. 850mb temps to return
to the mid positive single digits c allowing highs back in the 50s
with some 60s possible by monday. developing surface low pressure
over upper midwest is then progged to lift a warm front through
lower mi tuesday morning ushering in even milder air, 60s/low 70s,
before the arrival of the system`s cold front early wednesday
morning. said low also brings the next chances for some
thunderstorms and widespread rain showers.

&&

.marine...

a cold front moves through the central great lakes today with
showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the boundary. locally
higher winds/waves are possible in some storms, and a few could
intensify to meet thresholds for marine weather statements and/or
special marine warnings. should storms intensify, strong wind gusts
of 34+ knots are possible, particularly during the evening hours for
the southern waterways (lake st. clair and western erie). post-
frontal cooling will be stark, but a decrease in low-level northerly
flow should limit nocturnal mixed-layer gustiness to 30 knots or
less. modest on-shore post-frontal gradient winds still support
small craft advisory level waves through friday. winds and waves
expected to remain in-check over the weekend with mainly dry
conditions into monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1150 pm edt thu mar 26 2026

aviation...

notably colder northerly flow overnight will maintain a canopy of
low stratus at mainly mvfr restrictions. some gustiness to the wind
expected, potentially up to 25 knots at times. mixed signal overall
on the pace and degree of clearing late tonight and early friday.
forecast will continue to highlight greater potential for scattering
of low stratus from north to south during this window. assuming a
period of open sky emerges for friday, then expectation remains for
prolonged vfr into the afternoon. some thickening and lower of cloud
friday evening as a mid level wave tracks through the region. this
may induce a limited coverage of very light snow showers or flurries
early friday night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs below 5000 ft overnight. low friday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-
441>443.

small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......kgk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.