Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 181151
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
751 am edt fri sep 18 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains on track with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) an unsettled pattern will begin on saturday and linger into early
next week bringing the potential for multiple rounds of showers.
heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible, especially this
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will nudge south today and allow for dry conditions to
persist across the area into saturday morning before an active
weather pattern returns for the weekend and into early next week.
initially on saturday, a low pressure system is expected to push
east towards the southern great lakes region, moving a warm front
north across much of the ohio valley. this warm front is expected to
stall somewhere south of the lake erie lakeshore, acting as a path
for the aforementioned low pressure to move along. given the
positioning of this system, ample moisture is expected to stream
across much of the region. this increase in moisture coupled with a
few mid-level shortwave troughs pushing east near that stalled
boundary should result in periods of showers. models continue to
suggest the period of heaviest rain should occur late saturday into
sunday. given high pwat values, deepening warm cloud layers, and a
skinny cape profile in modeled soundings the primary concern with
these showers will be very efficient and heavy rainfall. the current
forecast suggests rainfall over 1 inch across much of northern ohio
with 0.8-1 inch expected in northwest pennsylvania. this very heavy
rainfall has the potential to result in flooding concerns,
especially if the rainfall is prolonged or impacts the same area
multiple times. to highlight this concern wpc has highlighted areas
along and west of i71 in a day 2 & 3 slight (2 of 4) ero with the
remainder of the area in a marginal (1 of 4) ero. the threat for
severe weather remains limited across the cwa and should remain
isolated to along and south of the warm front which should stay just
south of the area.

after sunday, the pattern looks to remain unsettled as a broad upper
level trough continue to have embedded shortwaves move along it.
with each push of shortwave energy, additional rainfall chances will
occur. models are in a bit of disagreement in timing of these
various shortwaves, but long range models are now suggesting this
pattern persisting through at least mid-week. this prolonged period
of multiple rounds of precipitation could further worsen the flood
potential across the area given the expected wet antecedent
conditions from this weekend. will have to continue to monitor the
trends in models along with the trends in hydrologic parameters to
determine if the heavy rain potential will stick around.

given the placement of the cwa in relation to the aforementioned
boundary, temperatures today will be mild in the low to mid 70s
before gradually cooling over the weekend with highs only expected
to reach into the low to mid 60s on monday. overnight temperatures
will follow a similar trend with lows beginning the period in the
60s before cooling into the 50s next week.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
high pressure will expand across the eastern great lakes today
with clouds clearing from north to south this morning. ceilings
have been improving over the last couple hours and most
terminals will be a mix of mvfr and vfr for a couple more hours.
clouds will generally scatter out by 17z. mid and high level
cloud will be on the increase tonight with low level moisture
increasing again during the day on saturday. scattered showers
may approach tol/fdy towards the end of the taf period,
otherwise most other terminals will have better chances for a
shower on saturday afternoon.

winds will be northeasterly at 7-12 knots today with the higher
speeds near lake erie. otherwise, winds will decrease and veer
to easterly tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
as high pressure builds south across lake erie today, a brief period
of elevated northeasterly winds of 10-15 knots will impact portions
of the western and central basins. given the onshore flow, wave of 1-
3 feet along the lakeshore is expected with up to 4 feet possible at
times. as a result, there is a moderate risk for rip currents
through late morning. as the high pressure becomes dominant this
afternoon, northeast flow will weaken to 5-10 knots and allow for
waves to diminish to 1-2 feet. these conditions will persist into
saturday morning before winds shift and become easterly at 10-15
knots ahead of an approaching low pressure system. as this system
approaches the southern lakeshore sunday morning, increased winds
from the northeast to 15-20 knots will gradually build waves to 3-5
feet. given a deepening gradient, these winds are expected to
increase into monday, possibly approaching gales by monday
afternoon. these strong winds will be highly dependent on the exact
placement of the low pressure system, but either way at minimum a
small craft advisory and beach hazards statement will be needed for
much of lake erie from sunday through at least tuesday. by midweek,
model guidance begins to disagree quite a bit resulting in less
confidence.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 181011
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
611 am edt fri sep 18 2026

.key messages...

- briefly dry and less humid today into this evening.

- several rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms expected
this weekend, possibly lingering into monday. localized
flooding will be possible where the heaviest rain sets up.

- cooler and trending drier tuesday through thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 303 am edt fri sep 18 2026

a low level anticyclone tracking east through ontario and the
northern great lakes will funnel drier, less humid air into the area
today into this evening. active pattern with several rounds of rain
and embedded storms then return later tonight through the weekend
as another baroclinic zone and unseasonably moist 2 inch pwat axis
set up over the area. a parade of convectively enhanced shortwaves
and broad waa/isentropic upglide into the frontal zone will no doubt
aid in the expansion of training elevated convective episodes and
torrential rainfall.

a model consensus favors saturday morning into early saturday
afternoon for the first round of elevated convection on the nose of
a ~30 knot low level jet. higher qpf/pops are favored west of i-69
and north of us 24 with this first round as activity may tend to
outrun more focused low level convergence with southeastward
progression.

a brief lull remains possible in between mid level impulses saturday
afternoon-early evening before additional bouts of more organized
rain/thunder settle in saturday night into sunday. this occurs as a
weak sfc frontal wave aids in enhancing the fgen response. heavier,
training convective elements remain a concern for localized flooding
given the frontal forcing and moisture rich air mass. a flood watch
may be needed for portions of the area at some point, but held off
for now per collaboration and lingering model spread on timing and
location. prospects for any isolated severe storms are on the low
side south of us 30 otherwise later saturday afternoon-evening as
the sfc boundary and potential for any surface based convection
struggles to reach this far north.

cooler weather remains in store for next week as the primary western
conus upper trough releases east, potentially closing off over the
great lakes by midweek. continued moist isentropic upglide over
the southward sinking frontal zone keep chances for showers through
at least monday, with a trend toward drier weather thereafter as the
leading moisture channel shifts off to the southeast.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 608 am edt fri sep 18 2026

cigs may bounce around in the mvfr to low vfr range through
13-14z at ksbn before drier air makes better inroads mid morning
through the rest of taf cycle with vfr conditions and easterly
winds up to near 10 knots. at fwa, ifr stratus should mix out to
vfr by midday with similar winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 181006
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
606 am edt fri sep 18 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather today with increasing clouds late in the day.

- several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely
saturday, saturday night, and sunday.

- a cool and cloudy pattern is expected through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure anchored over the northern great lakes will maintain
dry and stable conditions locally today. this ensures widespread vfr
conditions with limited diurnal cu development, with prevailing
northeast wind holding at around 10 knots. high cloud thicken
tonight as mid level moisture increase downstream of low pressure
lifting into the midwest. this system will bring periodic rain
chances this weekend, with an initial round of showers likely
arriving saturday morning. associated lowering of cloud base
expected during this time.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft saturday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 421 am edt fri sep 18 2026

discussion...

a stalled frontal boundary remains active with convection across the
ohio valley this morning but se mi will see increasing drying
influence from high pressure passing through northern ontario today.
northeast flow allows remaining stratus to push south of the
stateline with a good amount of sunshine for the area through
midday. subtle negative thickness advection within the southern
extent of thermal troughing allows high temps to arrive right around
seasonal average in the lower 70s and upper 60s (downwind of lake
huron).

low pressure emerges out of the high plains today in response to a
shortwave and upper jet entrance region running the ridge axis in
place, bolstered by a feed of monsoonal moisture from the four
corners region. will see the first signs of this system locally
later this afternoon as high cloud begins to spill in from the west.
dry weather is most likely to prevail overnight as persistent
easterly flow maintains a dry pocket within the lowest 8 kft or so.
upstream, organized moisture transport into the developing warm
frontal slope will produce a corridor of steady and at times heavy
rainfall. the llj driving this rain is shown to veer overnight
before beginning to target parts of lower mi saturday morning. there
are still some discrepancies noted in the strength and northeastward
extent of this feature among 00z guidance, which appears to govern
how far north and east the swath of rain reaches into the local area
on saturday.

model cross sections show a sharp 850-700mb frontal structure and
attendant fgen within deep layer saturation, suggestive of banded
precip with inherent uncertainty as to where the frontal slope will
activate and for how long at any given location. this is evidenced
by a 1+" spread between the 25th and 75th percentile qpf in lref
grand ensemble membership. qpf output in coarser global model
solutions is likely overdone spatially and prefer the look of hi-res
solutions that can better account for the initial dry easterly flow
and some of the mesoscale processes involved. overall flavor of
these solutions shows the heaviest rain sinking southeast across
lake michigan and chicagoland into western lower mi and northern in
saturday morning before the llj weakens and rates/coverage begin to
taper off midday. what`s left for se mi is a cool, cloudy, and
showery pattern with amounts most probable to hold below a half inch
through 00z sun. rates could become moderate at times as pwat rises
above 1.50", but the threat for widespread heavier rain is low. weak
lapse rates and marginal elevated instability offer low potential
for an embedded thunderstorm or two in the south. conversely,
portions of the area north of i-69 may see little to no rain given
the farther proximity from the feed of moisture and lift.

additional showers are likely, especially south of m-59, saturday
night into sunday. the stalled frontal slope remains overhead while
additional moisture continues to feed along it. as the nocturnal llj
becomes active again over the northern ohio valley, this will be a
window for training showers that have potential to produce locally
over 1 inch of rain. placement of the axis of heaviest rain still
carries high uncertainty and may yet be displaced south of the state
line. additional clarity should come into focus today and tonight as
additional hi-res runs begin to include this period.

high pressure builds back into northern ontario on sunday, offering
another period of dry northeast flow that should shunt any lingering
showers southward by late in the day. a tightening gradient brings
breezy conditions with temperatures capped in the mid 60s. cool and
mostly cloudy conditions carry into the early week as the stalled
front remains active over the ohio valley. showers will be possible
at times, especially in the south. an upper low looks to develop
overhead midweek which brings higher likelihood for showers
wednesday and thursday.

marine...

a secondary cold front finishes clearing the region this morning
resulting in a modest uptick in northeasterly winds (toward 20-
25kts) over the southern half of lake huron. small craft advisories
are in effect along the thumb due to the moderate onshore flow. this
front stalls over northern ohio before attempting to lift back north
saturday as plains low pressure arrives. front looks to reach the
southern great lakes before the system tracks over lower mi
resulting in predominant east-southeast turning northeasterly winds
this weekend. widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are
possible, mainly focused over the southern half of the region. a
moderate gradient, supporting ne/e gusts 20-30kts, lingers behind
the low sunday into the new work week as the area holds between the
stalled boundary over the ohio valley and high pressure over
northern ontario.

hydrology...

a low pressure system approaching from the plains with increasing
deep moisture will bring showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms
to the area this weekend. forecast rainfall totals have decreased
with the latest guidance, but relatively high confidence still
exists for total rainfall ranging between a half inch and 1.5
inches. the highest amounts are likely to occur mainly south of a
line from lansing to detroit. a period of moderate rainfall rates
and potential for training/repeated showers is most favored to occur
from saturday night into sunday morning, especially for areas south
of m-59. the longer duration rainfall event will mitigate widespread
flooding concerns, but ponding will be possible where any repeated
rounds of showers lead to localized totals in excess of 1 inch.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk
hydrology....tf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.