Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
026
fxus61 kcle 090505
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1205 am est tue dec 9 2025

.synopsis...
a warm front lifts across the area on tuesday, ahead of strong low
pressure that tracks through the southern great lakes on wednesday.
a cold front crosses wednesday afternoon behind this low pressure.
after brief high pressure thursday into thursday night, a series of
clippers and cold fronts is expected friday into the weekend.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
-unseasonably cold lows in the single digits and 10s expected tonight.
-a quick-moving band of snow spreads across the area on tuesday,
potentially bringing a quick coating to 1" of snow. impacts would be
brief and minor, favoring northern portions of the area.

a quiet and cold early december night is in store as high pressure
that`s in control today begins exiting east tonight. partly cloudy
skies this afternoon will briefly go mostly clear tonight, before
clouds start increasing from the west late tonight. lows will reach
the single digits and 10s (colder in inland and less urban area,
milder near the lake and in the densely urban cleveland area).

a low-amplitude shortwave will zip across the great lakes on tuesday
as a warm front lifts across the area, likely bringing a quick period
of snow from west to east during the morning and early-mid afternoon
hours. this snow will primarily be forced by strong warm air advection
and isentropic lift in the low-mid levels just ahead of the surface
warm front, on the nose of a 50kt low-level jet. weaker forcing and
increasingly dry low-levels decreases snow potential farther south
across our area, though snow is likely across at least our northern
couple of rows of counties. pops have been increased some across the
board with at least a 20-30% chance everywhere, increasing to 60-70%
across the north, and may need to go a bit higher with the next update
if trends continue. this will be a quick hit of snow, spreading into
northwest oh 6-8 am, reaching cleveland/akron 9-11 am and pa by
midday. accumulating snow will not last more than 1-3 hours in a
given area before tapering off. however, model forecast soundings
show moderate to strong lift briefly co-located with the dendritic
growth zone (dgz) with this snow as it moves across the area, so even
though the forecast reads an inch or less of snow across the board it
may briefly come down. where road temperatures remain cold (higher
confidence west of i-77 where snow arrives earlier in the day, more
debatable east of the i-77 corridor) the quick hit of snow may be
briefly impactful on the roads. models do disagree a fair bit still
regarding how far south into our area this quick band of snow will
impact, with spread ranging from a quick inch or so of snow almost
down to us 30 (higher confidence in brief impacts in that scenario) to
amounts of 0.5" or less confined to the far north (which would not be
impactful). something in between is most likely to verify, though
given the co-location of the lift with the dgz on model soundings, we
may end up on the slightly snowier side of these solutions.

there should be a general lull in measurable precipitation late
tuesday afternoon and evening, though a few flurries or perhaps
drizzle may linger across northern ohio and northwestern pa. highs on
tuesday will range from near 30 in the higher terrain of pa to the
milder upper 30s across the western half of the area.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
-accumulating wet snow favoring the higher terrain of northeast oh and
northwest pa tuesday night into wednesday morning ahead of a clipper.
the timing of snow may impact the wednesday morning commute. the rest
of the area will likely see chilly rain or a rain/snow mix.
-windy conditions area wide late tuesday night through wednesday as
the clipper progresses through, with gusts over 40 mph possible.
-a strong cold front crosses late wednesday, bringing falling
temperatures and scattered snow showers area-wide. light to moderate
lake effect snow lingers in the snowbelt wednesday night & thursday.

a potent clipper, associated with surface low pressure near 985mb,
will zip through the great lakes on wednesday. another warm front
lifts through area late tuesday night into wednesday morning ahead of
the approaching low. the low tracks through michigan wednesday
morning, pulling an initial cold front across the area during the late
morning/early afternoon hours. a secondary cold front, with a tap of
deeper cold/arctic air behind it, crosses wednesday evening. low
pressure quickly exits through northern new england near the st
lawrence river wednesday night, with lingering chilly cyclonic flow
behind it into thursday. high pressure builds into the ohio valley
later thursday into thursday night.

a brief period of strong lift moves into the area late tuesday night
into wednesday morning along and just ahead of the warm front,
bringing an initial round of precipitation. lows tuesday night will
generally be near or a bit above freezing. this precipitation
continues to be forecast to fall as a rain/snow mix with the greatest
potential for snow farther east across our area and in the higher
terrain, though there have been noticeable trends in guidance today
that suggest the potential for more snow vs rain is increasing. this
lift will be focused ahead of the incoming strong/sharp vort max, with
a window of strong isentropic lift on the nose of a moisture-rich
50-60kt low-level jet. forecast soundings suggest this lift may
largely be focused in and above the dgz, with hints at some modest
slantwise instability in the mid-levels as well. these are all
arguments for a period of both good precipitation rates and dynamic
cooling within the initial round of precipitation late tuesday night
into early wednesday, suggesting that potential is there for a period
of accumulating snow even if the low-levels are on the milder side.
the forecast continues to call for pops ramping up tuesday night into
early wednesday with a rain/snow mix for most of the area, but has
trended towards a bit more snow wording across the eastern portions of
the area and a bit more rain/snow wording farther west where the
prior forecast called for mainly or all rain. the deterministic snow
forecast calls for 1-3" in the higher terrain of northwest pa and
0.5-2" across the higher terrain of northeast oh, with little to none
near the lake and farther west. it`s worth noting that nbm 90th
percentile (aka "reasonable worst case scenario") snow amounts range
from 2-4" across northwest pa to 1-3" across northeast oh, with
lighter amounts as far west as the higher terrain near mansfield.
given the impressive dynamics involved we will need to monitor for
amounts to trend towards this higher end, particularly if we see the
system trend any more dynamic or slightly farther south. a winter wx
advisory may be needed for far northeast oh and northwest pa for
tuesday night into early wednesday, with impacts to the commute a
consideration if snow amounts do trend towards the 90th percentile.

we quickly get into a dry slot wednesday morning, which should lead to
precipitation weakening and likely allowing lingering precipitation
to more readily change to all rain, even in northeast oh and northwest
pa. the initial cold front late wednesday morning and early afternoon
will likely bring a broken, low-topped band of weakly convective
rain/snow showers. a secondary front and associated strong low-mid
level trough axis crosses late wednesday afternoon or evening,
bringing scattered to numerous snow showers area-wide with a lake-
enhanced burst of snow downwind of the lake into northeast oh and
northwest pa. this should not lead to much snow outside of the lake
enhancement, generally under an inch, though may contribute to slick
conditions where snow continues as temperatures drop wednesday night.

highs on wednesday will likely occur late morning or early afternoon,
in the upper 30s or lower 40s. temperatures will slowly fall
wednesday afternoon and evening, with a harsher temperature drop
wednesday night. wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected early wednesday
morning through late wednesday afternoon, initially out of the south
but shifting more west-southwest through the day. some potential for
parts of the area to need a wind advisory is there, though ultimately
the strongest winds aloft occurring during morning on wednesday in a
warm air advection regime with lots of cloud cover may work against
effectively mixing down advisory-level gusts. however, that potential
will be monitored and either way it will be windy.

lake effect will setup wednesday night into thursday amid west-
northwest flow behind the departing clipper. there are some pros and
cons to this lake effect setup...pros including some lingering low-
level synoptic moisture, upstream connections to lakes michigan and
huron, and strong low-level lapse rates as 850mb temperatures bottom
out in the -12c to -14c range early thursday over lake water temps of
3-5c east of the lake erie islands. cons include mid-level moisture
quickly stripping away and equilibrium levels quickly falling to 5-7k
feet, meaning it will be a struggle to see deep lake effect bands that
tap into the most ideal dendritic growth zone. ultimately, locations
that see persistent lake effect may see another few inches of snow
wednesday night through thursday, favoring the higher terrain of
northwest pa but with some accumulations in the ohio snowbelt too.
lake effect will continue into thursday night but should gradually
weaken and/or shift northeast, as warm advection aloft kicks in and as
winds gradually back to a more west-southwest direction. the lake
effect snow may marginally reach advisory levels, mainly in inland pa.

outside of the lake effect conditions should dry quickly wednesday
night, though flurries off of lake michigan will likely drift into
western portions of the area into at least thursday with little to no
accumulation potential. these flurries from lake michigan should taper
into thursday night as high pressure builds in. lows wednesday night
will generally reach the low-mid 20s. highs on thursday don`t go up
much, mid 20s to near 30. lows in the 10s to low 20s (warmest in the
snowbelt due to cloud cover) thursday night.

&&

.long term /friday through monday/...
-high confidence in very cold weather this weekend, with highs
struggling to exceed 20 and lows in the single digits and 10s. wind
chills may dip below 0 degrees at times.
-confidence in details remains low, but potential is there for one or
two clippers to bring widespread light to moderate snow accumulations
friday through saturday night.
-at least some lake effect snow is expected this weekend in the
snowbelt, with potential (lower confidence) for impactful amounts.

a longwave trough with a good connection of arctic air will amplify
over the great lakes and northeast this weekend, reaching peak
amplitude saturday and sunday before beginning to exit as milder and
more zonal flow attempts to establish itself from the west.

there is high confidence in a period of cold weather this weekend,
with highs struggling to exceed 20 degrees by sunday and overnight
lows in the single digits to lower 10s. friday should see similar
high temperatures to thursday before the deeper cold arrives. a
moderation trend should begin by monday, though confidence in exactly
how quickly we warm up isn`t high yet. a period of windier weather is
also likely, probably centered around saturday and saturday night.

what there`s less confidence in is any snow potential during the long
term period. an initial shortwave/clipper zips through the region on
friday, with another shortwave/clipper expected later saturday and
saturday night. both clippers could bring swaths of fluffy, light to
perhaps moderate accumulations. drier weather (outside of lake
effect) is generally favored for sunday and monday. the track of each
clipper and impacts to the local area will need to be pinned down, as
ensemble members depict various potential tracks and swaths of snow
with each clipper, not all of which would do much locally. deeper
cold air gets pulled in saturday night into sunday behind the second
clipper. guidance has been bouncing around regarding how deep the
cold air is and if we have more of a west vs northwest wind.
confidence in accumulating lake effect snow across parts of the
snowbelt saturday night through at least sunday is fairly high,
though potential peak amounts and placement will take the next several
days to fully resolve. impactful lake effect is possible, and those
in northeast oh and northwest pa will want to monitor the potential.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
high pressure over the area departs to the east, with vfr
conditions continuing through the overnight hours. a warm front
will be accompanied by a band of light to moderate snowfall
tracking eastward across the area tuesday morning through early
tuesday afternoon. there is some uncertainty with how far south
this band of snow will extend, with confidence higher in a 1-2
hour period of ifr visibilities across the northern part of the
forecast area (including ktol, kcle, and keri). visibility could
briefly reach as low as 1/2 sm to 1 sm in the heart of the snow
band across our the northern forecast area. there is lower
confidence across the southern portion of the forecast area
where visibilites may remain above 3 sm (or at least ifr
visibilities will be more brief).

as the warm front crosses the area, strong southwest winds of
around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots expected areawide.
stronger peak wind gusts of up to 30-35 knots may be possible at
western sites such as ktol, kfdy, and kmfd and along the
lakeshore (e.g. keri). ovc/bkn will remain across much of the
area, with few/sct possible across the southern portion of the
area. cloud bases will be around 3500-5000 ft.

precipitation associated with the main low pressure system will
move in from the west tuesday night, resulting in gradually
lower ceilings to primarily mvfr initially. precipitation type
is going to be a forecast challenge for tuesday night when
precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and snow, with a low
chance of freezing rain with the initial first few hours of
precipitation. warmer temperatures will exist to the southwest,
which is where all rain is most likely (e.g. kfdy). the farther
north and east you get, the more likely it is to mix in snow
(ktol, kcle, kmfd, kcak) and/or be all snow (keri/kyng). the low
chance of freezing rain is most likely at kmfd, kcak, and kyng.

outlook...non-vfr is expected with snow tuesday night which
will gradually transition to rain by wednesday morning. rain
will transition back over to snow wednesday evening. periods of
snow will be possible thursday through saturday, especially in
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. strong southwest to
west wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots are possible wednesday.

&&

.marine...
unsettled marine conditions are anticipated for much of this week as
a series of systems cross the region. southeast winds to 10 to
15 knots will develop tonight with south/southwest flow developing
and increasing behind a warm front by tuesday morning. small craft
advisories start in all nearshore zones at 12z tuesday morning and
winds in the open waters mainly in the central and eastern basins
will likely reach 25 to 30 knots for a period tuesday afternoon into
tuesday evening. the strongest winds will develop as a strong cold
front approaches and moves east across the lake late tuesday night
through wednesday and winds will likely reach 25 to 35 knots in the
central and eastern basins of the lake between about 09z/4 am
wednesday and 00z/7 pm wednesday evening. a gale watch is in effect
during this time. winds will likely be a bit too southerly to
warrant any low water issues in the western basin on tuesday, but a
low water advisory will likely be needed at some point with the
strongest west/southwest winds on wednesday.

small craft advisories will likely continue after the expiration of
any gale headlines wednesday night onwards, although there
may be a brief lull in higher winds/waves late thursday night/early
friday morning before southwest winds increase to 25 to 30 knots
ahead of the next approaching system friday night through saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 am tuesday to 4 am est thursday
for lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 7 am tuesday to 4 am est wednesday
for lez144>149.
gale watch from late tuesday night through wednesday evening
for lez144>149-164>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1257 am est tue dec 9 2025

.key messages...

- chances for snow. cold wind chills tonight near zero.

- seasonably mild temperatures with periods of snow and a rain
mix through wednesday night before turning back over into snow
showers. travel impacts appear limited at this time.

- turning very cold again late this week into the weekend with
highs only in the teens and low temperatures in the single
digits.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 253 pm est mon dec 8 2025

another cold night tonight however increase in clouds with a
shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the region may
once again keep temperatures a tad warmer. this coupled with the
beginning of a warm advection influx that will strengthen ahead
of a stronger disturbance in the form of a clipper type system
that will move through the great lakes region tomorrow. we will
see some light chances of snow showers with light accumulations
expected mainly north of us-30 this evening. however, the better
chances will be along the mi/in state line.

with the clipper system moving through to the north of our cwa
the waa plume will push northward into the area and bring warmer
temperatures for tomorrow and wednesday. highs each day will
finally warm to above freezing with values in the mid to upper
30s expected. this will also make the precipitation forecast a
bit more difficult especially at the onset of precipitation
tomorrow early evening for the northwestern portions of our area
then spreading southeasterly across the remainder of the cwa.
there is concern that there may be some freezing rain with the
onset of precipitation with the expectation of a mix of rain and
snow which any liquid precipitation would likely freeze on
contact with the still very cold surfaces being in the icebox
over the last 11 days or so. the periods of rain or snow or the
combination of the two will continue through wednesday early
afternoon before beginning to switch over to all light snow
showers by wednesday night with colder air advecting southward
across the area with a trough axis associated with a upper level
low centered over the hudson bay canada region. any snowfall
accumulations will be light with this system. winds will be
gusty through this event especially on wednesday with the
arrival of the trough. gales on lake michigan look to be
likely.

this trough will also push down another punch of arctic air
across the area for the end of the week and through the weekend.
high temperatures on thursday and friday will again return to
below freezing with values in the mid to upper 20s. this trend
to colder will continue into the weekend with the coldest
temperatures on saturday and sunday with highs only in the teens
and lows in the single digits. will need to monitor the wind
chills especially for saturday as gusty winds look to be in play
with the tighter pressure gradients in place.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1246 am est tue dec 9 2025

vfr/mvfr conditions to start the period, deteriorating to ifr
towards the latter half. a trough moves through the terminals
today, bringing potential for light snow and drops to mvfr
ceilings/visibilities. the best potential for snow will be at
ksbn after 9z, with kfwa possibly seeing flakes after 11z (it
could stay further north, so used prob30 vs tempo). behind this
wave another approaches, bringing rain/snow potential after 00z.
ceilings less than 2,000 feet linger at ksbn from 15z onward,
particularly once the next system arrives after 00z (low end
ifr). otherwise, gusty southwest winds through the day with
periods of marginal llws at both sites as we attempt to decouple
overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
gale watch from this evening through wednesday evening for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1146 pm est mon dec 8 2025

.key messages...

- light snow begins early tuesday morning, with accumulations
ranging from a dusting near the ohio border to 2 inches in the
thumb.

- areas of light freezing rain/drizzle possible during the day
tuesday before temperatures rise near the freezing mark tuesday
evening.

- snow briefly returns tuesday night before changing over to liquid
rain for most of southeast michigan; areas along/north of m-46 could
maintain all snow leading to accumulations in excess of 3 inches.

- colder air returns wednesday evening with a bit of additional
light snow possible, followed by the next arctic airmass heading
into the weekend.

- periodic lake effect snow chances exist from thursday onward.

&&

.aviation...

dry easterly feed around surface high pressure north of lake huron
will support gradual deep isentropic downglide through much of tonight.
prevailing vfr conditions are expected through approximately 09-10z.
clipper system will then track into lower michigan directing lift
and absolute moisture advection across the taf sites primarily in the
10-16z time window tuesday. forecast soundings support snow
throughout much of the precipitation period with heaviest lifr
activity expected at the northern taf sites. forecasted moisture
profiles suggest that deep moisture will strip out of the midlevels
at/after 16z which will bring a potential for freezing drizzle. very
low confidence exists that fzdz will be observed but did maintain the
inherited prevailing group at dtw. could very well be manifested as
a br/mist. west winds will then breezy in the afternoon and should
keep conditions locked in at mvfr before some potential for ceilings
to lower with nocturnal cooling tuesday night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through late tonight. high by
tuesday morning.

* high for initial p-type as snow tuesday morning before
transitioning to a light freezing drizzle/mist midday tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 359 pm est mon dec 8 2025

discussion...

main focus of this forecast cycle is an active tuesday-wednesday
stretch as a series of clippers dive toward the great lakes/ohio
valley. the first of these is set to reach se michigan during the
tuesday morning commute, with top-down saturation leading to the
onset of light snow between 09-12z (4a-7a). it will be a chilly
start to the day, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills in
the single digits to ensure freezing p-type through majority of the
morning hours. maximum ascent is displaced to our north as the
height fall center tracks across nrn mi, with the southern edge of
the height fall gradient clipping the saginaw valley/thumb. areas
further south rely on deep isentropic ascent for snowfall
production, which ramps up during the morning as system-relative
winds veer ahead of the wave. main limiting factor with this system
(as is often the case with clippers), is limited duration of deep
column moisture. slightly longer residence time of deep saturation
is expected in closer proximity to the wave (north of i-69),
affording a better opportunity for 1-2" of dry/fluffy snow while
areas to the south (e.g. pontiac/detroit/ann arbor) are held to an
inch or less by mid-day tuesday. even though overall storm totals do
not reach advisory thresholds, timing of peak snowfall rates (5a-9a)
will occur during the morning commute and will create variable road
conditions and slick spots.

the short duration of deep saturation is attributed to the arrival
of a mid-level dry slot, which strips away moisture from the dgz and
leaves a shallow ~5.0 kft cloud layer that could generate a few
hours of freezing mist/drizzle mid-day. this comes as temperatures
are warming and ice nucleation becomes less likely aloft. precip
gradually tapers off through the early afternoon with temperatures
climbing into the upper 20s by noon. warming temperatures afford
better mixing of the boundary layer to tap into a ~35-40 knot llj,
resulting in a breezy afternoon. southwest gusts of 25-30 mph will
be possible to keep wind chills in the teens for most of the day.

immediately behind this wave is another clipper system, although
with a more organized circulation in terms of both magnitude and
depth. this wave carves toward the ohio valley late tuesday evening,
with light snow returning to se michigan after about 03z (10p tue
night). with the low tracking along a more southerly path, its warm
front is able to pivot into lower michigan overnight and gradually
raise temperatures into the low-mid 30s by wednesday morning. fairly
sharp gradient in snow accumulations exists across se michigan as a
result, with the 32 degree isotherm generally holding right along
the m-46 corridor (coincident with the forecast track of the surface
low). this low (and the freezing line) however have both trended
south in recent forecast cycles. main implication of this is that
forecast temperatures are trending colder, and snow totals are
increasing especially across nrn portions of the cwa. the current
forecast calls for 4-6" of wet snow north of m-46, with tapering
accumulations to below 1" near the ohio border where temperatures
may be aoa freezing at precipitation onset. pending any dramatic
northward shifts in the track, advisories will likely be needed
across nrn portions of the cwa. not entirely out of the question to
reach entry level warning criteria either in the far north,
especially along/north of the surface low where banded structures
will be possible in the focused ascent regions of the frontal zone.
this outcome looks more likely over nrn lower mi at this time,
precluding any watch issuances with this forecast cycle.

snowfall tapers off through the day wednesday as the system drifts
into ontario and its cold front settles into lower michigan. shift
to north-northwest flow looks to activate lake huron/lake michigan,
which may provide a window for lake huron bands to impact the
shoreline counties wed night-thu morning. as usual, this will be
highly sensitive to wind direction. high pressure briefly fills in
friday, but the wave train remains active with signs for additional
snow and cold lingering into the weekend.

marine...

light and variable winds around this afternoon as high pressure
remains over the area. however, a quick ramp up in south-southwest
winds this evening and tonight as low pressure tracks through lake
superior, dragging a warm front through the central great lakes.
wind gusts look to reach at least 30 knots across all marine waters,
with brief gales even possible in the 12-15z tuesday time frame.
small craft advisories will be issued with this forecast package,
and will be carried right through wednesday as well. a larger and
stronger low pressure system is then on track to move through lower
michigan tuesday night into wednesday producing widespread snow and
even rain over lake st. clair and lake erie. the southwest low level
jet ahead of the looks to be very strong, and low level profiles may
not warm quick enough to stabilize the near water surface. thus, it
is looking like a short period of gales will occur over western lake
erie, with even brief isolated gusts to gales over lake st. clair.
on the flip side, with the water temp near freezing and a downward
trend in model wind speeds at the surface, elected to hold on off on
gale watch. as usual with offshore flow nearing gales, there will be
heighten concern for low water conditions across the western basin
of lake erie.

rush of cold air behind the passage of the low will then support
strong northwest winds wednesday afternoon and early wednesday
evening. isolated, brief gusts to gales remain likely, but the cold
advection is exhausted quickly and the pressure gradient relaxes by
thursday morning. with the short duration and the marginal nature of
the gales, elected not to issue gale watch and just have the small
craft advisories carry right into wednesday night. the cold airmass
(850 mb temps in the negative lower teens/around -10 c) looks to
persist to close our the work week, supporting moderate winds and
scattered snow showers.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 am tuesday to 4 am est thursday for
lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 7 am tuesday to 4 am est thursday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 7 am tuesday to 4 am est thursday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mv
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.