Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 am edt wed aug 26 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of a cold front this evening and redevelop again thursday
afternoon. a few strong to severe storms may be possible across
northwest ohio this evening.

2) a much warmer weather pattern will develop this weekend into
early next week with temperatures rising into the 80s to around
90 degrees.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure centered near the mid-atlantic region this
morning is still in control our our weather. today will be a
rather decent day for most of the area. skies will start out
mostly sunny to partly cloudy but clouds will increase late in
the day ahead of an approaching cold front. temperatures will
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.

a weak cold front approaching from the west will move into
northwest ohio this evening. a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along that cold front with
a few strong to severe storms possible, mainly for nwoh between
6 pm and 11 pm. for the thermodynamics ahead the front,
effective shear values will between 30-40 knots, mlcape values
between 1000-1500 j/kg, and downdraft cape up to 1000 j/kg. the
latest high-res model guidance in good agreement with the
potential of a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds
up to 60 mph as the main threat followed a less threat of large
hail up to the size of quarters. the latest spc severe weather
outlook today has lucas, wood, ottawa, and hancock counties in
a slight risk (level 2 of 5). there is a marginal severe storm
risk (level 1 of 5) from wyandot county ohio northeast to the
lake erie islands this evening. as the convection tracks
eastward late this evening, it will move into a stable
atmosphere and quickly dissipate before it reaches the i-71
corridor.

this slow moving front will be over neoh and nwpa thursday.
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
east of i-71 midday through the early afternoon before it moves
out of the area. severe weather is not expected with any of the
storms on thursday. a surface trough will southward across lake
erie thursday evening through early friday morning with a few
rain showers possible near the lakeshore.


key message 2...
a stretch of much warmer and nice weather will start friday as
high pressure will builds southeastward across the great lakes
and ohio valley. the overall weather pattern will transition
from an upper level to upper level ridging this weekend.
eventually an upper level ridge of high pressure will develop
and stay over the ohio valley this weekend into early next week.
this weather pattern will favor above average temperature in the 80s
to around 90 degrees. overnight low temps will be in the 60s to
around 70 degrees. by the next monday night and tuesday, a weak
frontal boundary will try to drift southward into our area and a
return of chance pops.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
any patchy fog/mist will quickly mix out this morning. otherwise,
vfr (just few-sct afternoon cumulus around 050) until storms
move in from the west this evening, reaching tol as early as
22z. confidence in ts impacts is fairly high at both tol/fdy,
where prevailing vcts with tempos are in the tafs. some storms
in northwest oh may be strong to severe with wind gusts of
40-50kt. activity should weaken quickly as it spreads east and
impacts quickly become more uncertain. have a window of vcsh
with prob30 for tsra at cle and mfd. have just a vcsh mention
later tonight at cak/yng/eri, as it`s possible a few showers
maintain through the night though confidence in any thunder
lingering is quite low. winds shift south-southwest and increase
to 7-12kt with a few gusts up to 20kt into this afternoon.
winds remain south-southwest tonight.

outlook...isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across
northeast oh/northwest pa thursday afternoon. non-vfr possible
in low ceilings and a few showers moving off of lake erie
thursday night into early friday.

&&

.marine...
south-southwest winds will persist over the lake ahead of a cold
front that will cross on thursday, shifting winds more westerly.
winds will generally be 10-15kt through much of thursday,
perhaps briefly stronger late wednesday night into thursday
morning as the cold front crosses. these winds will build 1 to 3
foot waves (largest in the open waters), perhaps briefly closer
to 4 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern basin
early thursday. 1 to 3 foot waves will be pushed towards the
shoreline northeast of cleveland on thursday as winds turn more
westerly, though winds will quickly subside thursday afternoon
which should keep waves below small craft criteria. a period of
slightly elevated winds in the 10-15kt range out of the north-
northeast is expected thursday night into early friday, which
will likely create another period of choppy conditions with 1 to
3 footers in the nearshore waters. favorable marine conditions
are expected friday afternoon into the weekend with high
pressure sliding through the region.

thunderstorms will likely move over at least western lake erie
this evening before weakening, with lower confidence in
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the lake tonight.
thunderstorms may re-develop along the cold front over eastern
lake erie late thursday morning or early afternoon before
pushing inland. any storms can lead to briefly higher/erratic
winds and waves. a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may
occur thursday night into early friday morning as a trough
crosses the lake, with a low risk for waterspouts.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1226 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight risk for severe weather today, mainly from
3pm edt to 10pm edt. damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, isolated
large hail to 1 inch diameter are the primary risks, but an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

- seasonable temperatures continue thursday with a very low chance
of an afternoon shower (less than 15 percent).

- becoming warmer and more humid for the weekend.

- there is a moderate swim risk for southwest lower michigan lake
michigan beaches today, and again for thursday for all of
southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.update...
issued at 1207 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

weak trough extending from western lower mi into nw indiana
shows up nicely on vis sat as yet another band of agitated cu.
showers and even some occasional lightning strikes being noted
from south haven north with some indications of showers trying
to develop further south. cams continue to point towards this
activity likely remaining across n/nw sections for the next
couple of hours. whether upscale development occurs with this
feature further inland this afternoon or with the approaching
front remains to be seen. made a few additional tweaks to
timing and also lowered pops to less than 55% and opted for a
coverage wording.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 315 am edt wed aug 26 2026

convective/severe weather potential today will continue to be the
primary forecast concern for the short term period.

clouds are expected to increase from west to east this morning as a
zone of low level warm/moist advection across
wisconsin/northern illinois builds eastward aligning with a
zone of stronger 800 mb positive theta-e advection. convection
early this morning is limited to portions of southwest wisconsin
in closer proximity to cold frontal boundary and where some
dpva is ongoing in advance of an upper level low centered across
the arrowhead of minnesota. through the morning, expecting some
increase in low level forcing with a pre-frontal trough type
feature shifting across the western great lakes. some isolated-
scattered convection is possible later this morning/early
afternoon along this pre-frontal feature, particularly across
nw indiana into southwest lower michigan. instability through
early afternoon should be quite limited and not expecting any
threat of severe weather through early afternoon if convection
does develop.

the primary mid/upper level trough and stronger mid/upper level
forcing should be across central/northern lower mi today, but
southern lower michigan/northern indiana will be located on southern
extent of mid/upper level height falls accompanying this trough.
some increase in deep layer shear is expected this morning as modest
increases in 500 mb flow to 30-40 knots is expected resulting in
increasing deep layer shear to around 30 knots. some moderate mlcape
on the order of 2000-2500 j/kg is possible this afternoon, but
likely oriented in narrow axis just ahead of the cold front as mid
level lapse rates across the area remain on the marginal side. some
question persists regarding the extent of destabilization with
a possibility that some pre-frontal cloudiness/convection could
prevent instability magnitudes from reaching this potential.
there is also some question as initiation time and coverage of
convection as low level convergence fields may be a bit more
limited across the local area as stronger mid/upper level
forcing remains just north of the local area. combination of
moderate instability potential near frontal zone and sufficient
deep layer shear could support isolated-scattered severe
thunderstorm risk this afternoon into early evening. damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph appear to be the primary threat given steep
0-3km lapse rates, but some isolated large hail is possible
especially closer to convective initiation time. however,
limited mid level lapse rates may limit the hail potential.
given instability/shear combination some supercell
structure/isolated tornado potential is possible, although
guidance has trended to a bit more veered nature to near sfc
flow over past several runs which could limit low level helicity
from earlier indications. the primary severe risk still looks
to be largely in the 19z-02z timeframe, and particularly through
00z.

loss of connection to stronger sfc based instability should diminish
intensity of frontal convection after 00z or 01z this evening. some
patchy fog development is possible late tonight into early thursday
morning behind the sfc front with weak low level height gradient and
residual near sfc moisture likely remaining in place. another weak
mid level trough will dive southeast in wake of today`s upper trough
for thursday keeping the local area in broad cyclonic flow. some
surface based instability should be present in the afternoon and
some possibility of isolated showers could materialize. have
maintained silent 10-14 pops this cycle given rather nebulous mid
level forcing, but it is possible some low pops will be needed
thursday pm in later cycles.

friday should bring dry conditions as mid level ridging across
central conus builds eastward. positioning of this ridge upstream of
the area should keep a modifying low level thermal trough in place
with another day of seasonable temperatures on friday. the weekend
still looks to feature warmer conditions as favored storm track
remains across northern tier of conus resulting in dampening of the
upstream ridge and eventual return of low level warm air/moisture
advection. this pattern evolution should support eventual
advection of some warm mid level temperatures across the
southern great lakes and ohio valley. this leads to low
confidence in instability profiles for the weekend into early
next week. some potential will exist for sfc frontal boundary
to approach the region in this pattern, but confidence in depth
of frontal lift is in question given background synoptic
pattern. thus, low chance/slight chance pops will be maintained
for much of the days 4-7 period along with transition to above
normal temps.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1226 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

cold front remains on target to bring a chance for scattered
convection to ksbn btw 18-21z and kfwa 21-00z this afternoon,
best chances at kfwa. brief vis/cig reductions and gusty winds
can be expected if storms track over either terminal. southwest
winds will gust 15-20 knots pre-frontal this afternoon, becoming
light and westerly later tonight. primary vfr conditions are
anticipated otherwise tonight into thursday, though some patchy
ground br could settle in for a time later tonight at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1240 pm edt wed aug 26 2026

.key messages...

- becoming more humid today with afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms likely. a few strong to severe storms are possible.

- an isolated shower is possible thursday afternoon, then drier and
less humid conditions are expected through friday and saturday.

- a warming trend brings above normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.aviation...

south-southwest winds around 10 knots and vfr cu will prevail this
afternoon ahead of a cold front, which will continue to trigger
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as it passes through
southeast michigan early his evening. adjusted timing of possible
thunderstorms a bit earlier based on current trends and attempted to
narrow the time range, as storms look progressive tracking east;
activity should exit all taf sites by mid-evening. expect a dry slot
and partial clearing through the rest of the evening and most of the
night. however, light west-northwest cold advection flow will likely
be sufficient for low clouds (borderline mvfr/vfr) to spread into
the northern taf sites by sunrise thursday, and then into southern
sites later in the morning before cloud bases rise and clouds
scatter out in the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...a thunderstorm or two is likely to pass through
the detroit airspace between 21-01z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low-medium for thunderstorms late this afternoon/early evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1100 am edt wed aug 26 2026

update...

low pressure is observed over central lake superior this morning,
with its cold front extending south across lake michigan. two
distinct cloud bands seen on satellite are actively producing
showers with a more isolated degree of convection noted. minor
update to the forecast to include slight to chance pops north of i-69
this morning for the leading band of showers.

the trailing cloud band, more closely associated with frontal
forcing and moisture convergence, will be the feature to watch late
this morning into the afternoon for thunderstorm development over
west mi. already seeing cloud-top cooling and growing radar returns
along this feature, which reaches se michigan this afternoon. the
main limiting factor is that instability is anchored to the front,
and storms are moving off of that boundary into a drier and more
stable environment. general expectation is thus for storms to flare
up and form a broken line, although the coverage and longevity of
individual cells may struggle with how narrow the instability axis is.
no major changes to the 4am package regarding our severe chances or
timing, with all hazards in play and timing focused around 3pm-9pm
(slightly earlier in the tri cities).

prev discussion...
issued at 339 am edt wed aug 26 2026

discussion...

last vestiges of upper shortwave ridging are departing this morning,
with remnant warm mid levels maintaining stable conditions through
noon. a closed upper low over the arrowhead of mn is on track to
pass across upper mi later today, opening into a trough in the
process. weak moisture transport ensues on modest s to sw wind,
culminating in a more humid day with dew points creeping into the
mid to upper 60s by this afternoon. as the upper trough erodes the
remnant stability, showers and storms should percolate along a
surface trough into west mi late this morning. relatively weak
divergence aloft and gradual height falls provide support for ascent
as convection spreads eastward along the lead edge of the inbound
low-level theta-e ridge, bringing fairly high confidence (60-70%)
for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. timing in
hi-res guidance continues to favor arrival into the tri-cities
around noon to 3pm, then the rest of se mi between 3pm and 10pm.

href shows mean sbcape of 1000-1500 j/kg building in but with
convection generally outpacing the higher instability as the evening
goes on. bulk wind shear on the order of 25-30 kt will offer
potential for marginal updraft organization and a window for
isolated stronger to severe storms. a band of slightly higher sw
850mb flow will accompany the trough, enlarging low level hodographs
to some degree especially if surface wind remains backed/southerly.
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat in the strongest
storms, but large hail and a weak tornado will also be possible if
any supercellular structures emerge. hi-res ml guidance continues to
favor areas south and west of se mi for this threat, and will note
that neighborhood probabilities for all severe hazards have
decreased in 00z href. the swody1 slight risk area south of i-96 is
driven by 15% wind probs, with hi-res reflectivity suggestive of
transient linear features in this area. localized heavy downpours
will be possible as pwat flirts with the 90th percentile around
1.50", but ensemble qpf data do not indicate a broader excessive
rainfall threat.

a lull in convection is anticipated by late evening as the initial
surface trough works eastward, but lingering instability ahead of
the cold front will offer potential for additional spottier showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm into the early overnight. the cold front
then passes through early morning to end precip chances. the inbound
air mass is not much different in temperature but slightly less
humid. weak instability develops on thursday as longwave troughing
induces steeper lapse rates aloft - this fuels ~20% probability for
isolated late afternoon and evening showers.

a secondary cold front drops through ahead of high pressure that
builds in through friday and saturday. this brings pleasant and less
humid conditions with lots of sunshine. by early next week, the
subtropical ridge over the southern plains is progged to migrate
into the tennessee valley. warmer southwest flow riding in north of
the ridge will bring a warming trend next week with the latest nbm
advertising a 40-50% chance for parts of se mi to see highs in
excess of 90 degrees monday and tuesday.

marine...

southwest flow becomes well established across the great lakes today
as a high pressure system departs into the continental northeast. an
approaching cold front will strengthen the pressure gradient ahead
of this front, increasing wind speeds through the day. wind gusts of
20 to 25 knots will be likely across saginaw bay given the favorable
fetch, where small craft advisories are in effect.

showers and thunderstorms will also become increasingly likely with
the passage of the front, including a low chance for isolated strong
thunderstorm development capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34
knots. winds veer to the northwest after the frontal passage with
northwest flow holding on through tomorrow. high pressure fills back
in friday and saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
update.......mv
discussion...tf
marine.......tf


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.