Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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834
fxus61 kcle 182337
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
737 pm edt mon may 18 2026

.what has changed...
the slight risk for tuesday has been expanded to include nearly
the entire forecast area. otherwise, no significant changes
were made with this forecast package.

&&

.key messages...
1) the hottest temperatures of the year thus far will continue
through tuesday. the heat will break behind a cold front on
wednesday with below normal temperatures continuing into
thursday.

2) a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in northwest
ohio and possibly close to the lakeshore this afternoon into
early this evening. another round of strong to severe storms is
possible on tuesday afternoon and evening.

3) unsettled weather with periods of rain expected and
thunderstorms possible over the holiday weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
deep warm air advection will remain in place across the area
over the next couple of days, resulting in above normal to near
record temperatures across the area through tuesday.
temperatures will remain in the 80s to around 90 degrees through
the remainder of this afternoon with temps into the upper 60s
and lower 70s tonight. temperatures will decrease a bit faster
in locations that receive rain (most likely nw oh) this
afternoon. temperatures will once again rise into the 80s and
possibly touch 90 degrees tuesday afternoon, although confidence
in temps reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s (and possibly
touching record values) is slightly lower than today due to low-
end chances of morning showers, afternoon convection, and
increased cloud cover. dew points will likely be a bit higher on
tuesday afternoon so it will definitely feel muggy. those
spending time outside this afternoon and during the day tuesday
should wear light/loose-fitting clothing and hydrate and
sensitive groups should consider limiting time outdoors during
peak heating.

temperatures will cool down for mid to late week with highs in
the 60s expected wednesday and thursday.

key message 2...
as of 230 pm edt, a line of severe thunderstorms was moving
east across indiana. there is a very tight instability gradient
that ends just within the western fringe of the local area so
anticipate storms to quickly weaken as they encounter less
instability later this afternoon and early this evening.
nonetheless, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are
possible, especially in the slight risk (level 2 of 5) area
that`s in place across the toledo area as the storms move in
over the next couple of hours. isolated stronger storms are
possible in the northern portion of the area where there is a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat, however large hail is possible
and a quick spin-up can`t be ruled out in the slight risk area.

once convection weakens this evening, scattered showers may
persist across nw oh through the overnight hours with low-end
pops expanding east across the local area tuesday morning. the
moist, unstable air mass will remain in place over the area on
tuesday, especially if the forecast trends drier and sunnier
than currently forecast. mlcape values will likely exceed 2000
j/kg by peak heating tuesday with effective bulk shear values
likely increasing to 30+ knots as a cold front advances east
towards the area tuesday afternoon. scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely tuesday afternoon into tuesday evening,
although there`s some uncertainty in the placement of convective
initiation and exact timing of thunderstorms. thunderstorm
development will likely rely on early day cloud cover and any
showers that develop tuesday morning. given the instability and
shear profile, storms may be strong to severe and there is a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across nearly the
entire area. damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern,
but some storms may produce large hail. a few tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

key message 3...
a period of dry weather is expected wednesday through thursday
before precipitation chances increase friday through the
holiday weekend as weak low pressure and a frontal boundary
slowly drift north across the ohio valley. there`s still quite a
bit of uncertainty in the timing and coverage of showers (and
possibly a few thunderstorms) over memorial day weekend, but at
the moment it looks like the best chances of precipitation will
occur friday night and sunday into monday. confidence in the
likelihood of hazardous weather is low this far out, but will
continue to monitor trends in guidance and adjust the
forecast/key messages as necessary.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
thunderstorms have began to diminish across nw oh over the past
couple of hours. a weakening line of showers are pushing
eastward now and has occasionally brought visibility down to
mvfr conditions, though expect conditions to be primarily vfr
even in rain showers. showers will taper off over the next
couple of hours with no impacts expected east of kcle.
overnight, a llj will set up over western oh creating llws
conditions for a few hours as surface winds become around 10
knots. winds will begin gusting to 25-30 knots out of the
southwest starting around 12-13z tomorrow morning and persist
through much of the day. another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected at the end of the taf period, after
22z, with only ktol, kfdy, and kcle included with this issuance.

outlook...non-vfr likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late
tuesday into wednesday. non-vfr possible in showers on friday
into saturday.

&&

.marine...
southwest/offshore winds 15-25kts through tuesday and wave heights
increasing rapidly away from shore with 1-3ft in the nearshore zones
and 2-4ft in the open water zones. a cold front comes through
tuesday night with northerly winds 10-15kts through wednesday,
increasing to 15-20kts out of the northeast thursday and 2-4ft waves
for the central and western basins. winds become light and variable
into the weekend.

&&

.climate...
high temperatures today and tuesday will approach record values.
the following are the records for may 18 and 19 at local climate
sites.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...23
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 182337
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
737 pm edt mon may 18 2026

.key messages...

- severe storms are anticipated again tuesday afternoon and
evening, with all hazards possible.

- warm and humid through tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. highs
only in the 60s wednesday and thursday.

&&

.update...
issued at 519 pm edt mon may 18 2026

while the severe threat has ended, some linger rain and a few
embedded storms were persisting across far se areas. no
significant impacts are expected and this area should shift
slowly east over the next couple of hours. thereafter, we should
be dry into the late night hours and possibly into tuesday
morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1014 am edt mon may 18 2026

main focus this forecast period is on the severe potential for
today and on tuesday. for today, seems the one limiting factor
for today`s storms will be the available shear, with values of
bulk shear is around 20 to 30 kts, this should keep
organization of storms minimal and current convective allowing
guidance and thinking points to a more linear feature moving
northeastward into the area over the next couple of hours from
central il. a plume of dew points in the mid 60s is pushing
northeastward ahead of the convection currently pushing across
central il. surface based cape values will run about 2000 to
2500 j/kg over the cwa. with environmental profiles drier near
the surface and a moist plume maxing out around 850 mb this
creates an inverted-v sounding which is indicative of gusty
outflows/winds with thunderstorms this is further illustrated
with downdraft cape values around 1000 j/kg. storm relative
helicity values look to remain below the 100 m2/s2 threshold but
there is the possibility for an isolated tornado or two. this
first batch of storms will move through after noon edt and push
through the area into this evening til around the 8 pm edt
timeframe. moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany these
storms with precipitable water value sitting around 1.70 inches.
of course, the storm motion speed will be important as if the
line moves through quicker that will limit the rainfall amounts
but either way looks like we should get a pretty good slug of
rain with today`s event as trailing stratiform will bring some
moderate steady rainfall behind the initial line of
thunderstorms as it pushes eastward through the area. storm
totals over the next two days looks to see some areas seeing
close to an inch of new rainfall.


a break in the action takes place tonight into the overnight
period before the better looking set up arrives tomorrow in the
form of a cold front associated with a low pressure circulation
centered over northern wi. sb cape values will be around
1500-2500 j/kg, surface dew points will get into the upper 60s
with a few locations seeing lower 70s, bulk shear values 30-40
kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and helicity
values of 100-200 m2/s2. at this time it looks as if all
threats will be on the table with the better helicity and shear
values associated with the close proximity of the frontal
boundary that will push eastward through the area. the exact
timing is still a bit hazy but current indications have the
frontal boundary approaching the western portions of our cwa
around 1 pm edt and exiting the area by early morning wednesday.
spc currently has our entire area in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms for tuesday. heavy to moderate rainfall will once
again be possible with the thunderstorms and as stated earlier
that around 1 inch of new rainfall will be possible with these
two batches of storms and locally heavier amounts if the
residence times of thunderstorms linger.

in the wake of the cold front a more zonal flow develops over
the region on wednesday and cooler and drier conditions will
arrive. highs on wednesday will only get into the 60s which is
about a 20 degree drop from the 80s today and tuesday. upper
level ridging begins to push into the region by thursday and
will start to see a gradual increase in temperatures into the
weekend. highs friday and saturday will be in the 70s. sunday
into the beginning of next week highs will return int 80s.
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also
increase over the weekend and at this time the best chances will
be friday afternoon and evening with a trough pushing through
the area but periods of showers/t-storms will be possible each
day into next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 727 pm edt mon may 18 2026

vfr conditions to dominate most of the period at both locations
with winds diminishing somewhat this evening before becoming
gusty once again late tonight into tuesday. confidence is low on
evolution of another round of showers and thunderstorms on
tuesday, with many cams pointing towards the best potential east
of ksbn and even possibly more of a scattered nature at kfwa.
added some mention for now of precip later in the period, but
will have to wait and see how much destabilization occurs and
position of the cold front to aid in development.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 182315
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
715 pm edt mon may 18 2026

.key messages...

- warm and humid conditions exist again tuesday which supports a
risk of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
the strongest storms are capable of damaging wind, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

- a cold front tuesday night ushers in dry and cooler weather for
wednesday and thursday.

- the next chance of rain arrives friday and friday night.

&&

.aviation...

threat for thunderstorms has ended early this evening setting up vfr
mid/high cloud to start the night. strengthening southwesterly winds
tuesday morning draws richer low level moisture back into se mi
supporting the developing of scattered low cloud (~3kft). there is
some model signal for widely scattered shower development along the
nose of this moisture offering a shot at light showers and borderline
mvfr cigs for the mid/late morning hours. an approaching cold front
reaches southern lower mi by tuesday afternoon bringing the next
chances for showers/storms. due to the morning shower/low cloud
potential, exactly how much the region is able to destabilize (which
in turn will affect the subsequent coverage of thunderstorms) is the
main point of uncertainty so will introduce prob30s groups to start
to highlight the window for potential convection.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast tonight through
tuesday morning. there is a chance for scattered storms to develop
in the afternoon, ~20-00z, in advance of a cold front.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low-medium for thunderstorms tuesday afternoon/evening.

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight, medium by tuesday
morning through the day.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 pm edt mon may 18 2026

discussion...

severe thunderstorm watch 221 is in effect until 800 pm for the
mature mcs inbound into se mi. damaging wind gusts of 70 mph or
greater have been reported and remain the primary hazard as the line
tracks across se mi. instability trends remain on track as full
morning to early afternoon sun lifted temperatures to near 90 all
areas. model mlcape up around 2000 j/kg in href mean and rap
projections of hourly mesoanalysis add confidence to persistence.
the system is already demonstrating benefits of the locally enhanced
wind shear profile supplied by the parent mcv resulting in a mature
linear convective mode now expected to maintain organization while
crossing se mi. storms exit eastward into ontario by 00z at or
before watch expiration.

another round of severe thunderstorm potential for tuesday is set up
by midwest low pressure as it moves into upper michigan while
pulling a cold front through the central great lakes. se mi remains
firmly in the warm sector of this system throughout the day with
early to mid evening cold front timing offering time for instability
to become sufficient. morning clouds and a stray shower likely slow
the pace of surface heating compared to today, however model
projections of mlcape place 2000 j/kg in reach by 21z tuesday
afternoon, especially toward the ohio border. this occurs in a very
similar wind profile compared to today in terms of moderate
unidirectional shear except with a deeper 40-45 knot layer through
500 mb. storm initiation timing is the primary uncertainty as shown
in the wide range of hi-res model solutions that collectively
suggest a later afternoon consensus. later timing equates to less
impact to se mi in terms of coverage area and also a more isolated
severe threat before storms can better organize while the cold front
moves through the area.

frontal passage tuesday night, before midnight, sweeps storms out of
se mi and sweeps in cooler air for the mid week period. a broad area
of surface high pressure and short wave ridging ensures below normal
temperatures but dry weather during this time period as well.
central plains to ohio valley low pressure then brings the next
round of showers into lower mi later friday and friday night.

marine...

attention to the near-term forecast will focus on the ongoing line of
thunderstorms that extend across central michigan. this line will
pass across the eastern great lakes this evening and will bring
heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and strong to severe weather.
strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind
gusts aoa 50 knots for all of the open water locations. hail to an
inch and/or a waterspout cannot be ruled out but are secondary
hazards for severe weather. prior to this line of thunderstorm
arriving, isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will be
possible. a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8 pm edt.

outside of any thunderstorm activity, breezy southwest to south flow
will persist, bringing non-thunderstorm gusts on the order of 20 to
25 knots. the main line of storms will exit late tonight but
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
overnight. renewed strong to severe thunderstorm chances will again
be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening which will bring
additional chances to see all storm hazards included wind gusts aoa
50 knots. these stronger storms will be most favorable from central
lake huron and locations south. outside of thunderstorms, gusts to
25 knots will again be possible during daylight hours. re-issuance
of small craft advisories will be likely.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...bt
marine.......bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.