Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
060
fxus61 kcle 071954
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
254 pm est sat nov 7 2026

.what has changed...
no significant forecast changes were made with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler with periods of lake effect showers through the weekend.

2) turning milder early this week with unsettled weather
returning mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level low will continue to push east of the forecast area as a
surface ridge builds overhead from the west tonight. currently, lake
effect rain showers persist across portions of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. anticipate for shower coverage to diminish
from west to east with the arrival of the surface ridge tonight.
there will be a window of dry weather and clearing with the surface
ridge before another upper level trough clips the northeastern
portions of the forecast area on sunday night. lake effect rain
showers will redevelop across the traditional snowbelt region sunday
night into monday before diminishing through the day on monday.

northwest winds this afternoon and evening will continue to
occasionally gust to 20-25 mph before the ridge enters from the
west. the pressure gradient tightens as the trough approaches the
region which will lead to westerly wind gusts increasing to 25-30
mph by sunday.

remaining cooler this weekend with low temperatures tonight falling
to the upper 20s to lower 30s under a mainly clear sky. high
temperatures on sunday warm into the mid to upper 50s before lows
sunday night dip into the mid to upper 30s.


key message 2...
the first half of the week looks mainly dry and mild as surface
high pressure remains across the ohio valley. another upper
trough will dig south into the region later in the week.
however, current medium range models have some differences in
exact timing. for now, expect for unsettled weather to return at
some point later in the week with precipitation chances
increasing thursday onward. the upper trough will also introduce
a cold airmass with 850mb temperatures of -5 to -10c, depending
on what model you look at, which may usher in our first snow or
rain/snow mix of the season.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
widespread bkn/ovc skies with mvfr ceilings is the name of the
game for the rest of the afternoon/evening, with occasional lake
effect rain showers across parts of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. high pressure builds in from the west, so showers
should dissipate, followed by scattered out of clouds with
improvements to vfr conditions from west to east tonight.

northwest winds around 10-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots
continue through sunset, dropping off to around 4-7 knots
tonight, gradually becoming southwest by morning. southwest
winds quick increase after sunrise to around 15 knots by late
morning with gusts to around 25 knots though the afternoon.

outlook...mainly vfr expected. rain showers with potential for
non-vfr are likely across far northeast oh and northwest pa
sunday night into monday. non-vfr is possible areawide wednesday
night into thursday with rain showers.

&&

.marine...
elevated northwest winds 15-25 knots with wave heights 3 to 6 feet
continue across the central and eastern basins through this evening.
as a surface ridge builds over the lake from the west winds turn
westerly to southwesterly while remaining elevated 15-20 knots which
will keep wave heights 3-5 feet. surface pressure gradient increases
on sunday leading to southwesterly winds increasing to 20-30 knots
by sunday afternoon. wave heights will subsequently build to 5-8
feet across the nearshore waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of
the central and eastern basins. a cold front swings south across the
lake sunday night into monday leading to winds returning
northwesterly at 20-25 knots. high pressure regains control monday
with wind speeds decreasing to 10-20 knots and wave heights
subsiding to 2 feet or less by monday night. small craft
advisories have been extended in monday east of the islands.

there will likely be a brief window monday night into tuesday
with southwesterly winds 10-15 knots before winds increase to
20-25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet. another set of small
craft advisories may be needed for the central and eastern
basins.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 am to 10 pm est sunday for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 3 pm est monday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...saunders
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
600
fxus63 kiwx 071817
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
117 pm est sat nov 7 2026

.key messages...

- a slow warming trend commences sunday through tuesday, with highs
in the 60s by tuesday.

- cooler temperatures return for the second half of next week.

- dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 117 pm est sat nov 7 2026

lake effect clouds amid cyclonic flow departing the eastern great
lakes are showing some signs of breaking up. rising heights and a
subtle backing of the low-level flow should slowly chip away
the cloud deck for at least a couple peeks of sun late this
afternoon. decreasing clouds set us up for, in the context of
this mild fall, a very cold night. lows will tumble toward freezing
(away from the lake) as high pressure settles over illinois.
light wind to start the evening may set the stage for frost, but
then surface wind increases prior to daybreak in response to a
low pressure streaking across ontario. we`re now past the
climatological growing season; therefore, no frost/freeze
headlines.

breezy but dry on sunday as the aformentioned low passes to our
north. forecast soundings show strong flow in the low-levels but poor
mixing to the surface. this keeps wind gusts in check,
generally from the west at 25 to 30 mph. cool northwest flow
behind this dry frontal passage restarts lake effect clouds
which persist into monday morning.

broad northwest flow through the great lakes offers times of breezy
conditions for the week ahead, while a building ridge over the
central us results in a slight warming trend through wednesday
afternoon. given limited moisture transport, little to no rain is in
the forecast. our best chance for any rainfall is not until late
wednesday and thursday when a fairly deep trough approaches.
even so, this may be a glancing blow as low pressure from the
mississippi valley favors rain toward the ohio valley, shunted
south by an incoming great lakes trough. this trough sets up
lake effect precipitation, primarily west of our area.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1249 pm est sat nov 7 2026

mvfr to vfr conditions are expected at the terminals this
period, with an exiting low pressure trough heading eastward and
incoming surface high. persistent ovc/bkn skies will become
gradually more sct/few through the early evening, potentially
clearing completely at times. nw-wnw winds will shift to the
w-sw overnight into sunday, with gusts up to around 24kts during
the daytime hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
209
fxus63 kdtx 072106
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
406 pm est sat nov 7 2026

.key messages...

- cloud clearing trend into tonight.

- slightly milder and breezy tomorrow.

- temperatures stay on the warmer side of average through mid week
before a cool down arrives late week.

&&

.discussion...

closed low pressure system continues its trek further east and
eventually swinging through the new england region into tomorrow.
showers chances have come to an end though cloud cover will linger
through the remainder of the afternoon supported by the lower level
moisture. drier air will eventually arrive tonight with an inbound
shortwave ridge leading to a cloud clearing trend. the back edge of
the cloud shield can already be seen on satellite arriving into
western portions of the cwa. the clearing skies affords favorable
cooling conditions and temperatures dipping to around freezing or
below. coldest overnight lows will be across the thumb with upper
20s forecast.

the pacific jet will trigger amplification of a shortwave moving
across ontario and into quebec throughout tomorrow on the heals of
the progressive shortwave ridge. westerly flow develops between
these features allowing warm advection to bring temperatures up into
the mid-upper 50s range. afternoon mixing and increasing pressure
gradient will allow for winds to gusty to around 30 mph at times.
canadian shortwave will send a cold front through southeast
michigan. the best lift and moisture availability will be tied
closer to the center of the low pressure system with bulk of
precipitation focused across lake huron while parts of the northern
carry low end pops along and behind the front into sunday evening.

cold advection/thermal trough is quick to exit sunday night with
another period of warm advection starting monday morning as 850 mb
temperatures climb to around 5c with the arrival of the next ridge.
this keeps temperatures on the mild side with mid 50s on monday and
climbing into the low 60s for tuesday. dry conditions prevailing
into tuesday as well with surface high pressure holding influence
over the central great lakes. conditions expected to become more
unsettled into wednesday and troughing returns to the region. this
will bring the next chances for precipitation and cooler
temperatures as long range models point toward phasing systems
triggering high amplitude troughing by late week.

&&

.marine...

lighter winds across the central great lakes will be short-lived as
the next low pressure system clips the northern waterways sunday
into the early morning hours monday. this will initially support
breezy southwest flow with gusts at or below 30 knots, taking into
consideration the more stable conditions under the stream of warm
air aloft. however, as this low departs, winds will veer to the
northwest, ushering in the next dose of colder air. this boosts
instability over the warmer lake waters to help deepen mixing
depths, tapping the stronger winds above the surface. opted to
upgrade the gale watch to a gale warning given the cold advection
and consensus in lower column wind speeds. gusts should hover near
the gale threshold across the open waters of northern lake huron
sunday evening through early monday. for locations further south,
small craft advisories have been added for the southern huron basin
nearshores with periods of gust at/above 25 knots and waves in
excess of 4 feet. quick shifts to shortwave ridging monday and then
back to a troughing pattern or dry frontal passage ensues early next
week with lower potential to reach marine thresholds.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1145 am est sat nov 7 2026

aviation...

cold cyclonic northwest flow (sustained winds at or above 10 knots)
over lower michigan early this afternoon supporting mvfr cigs. low
level lapse rates are even steep enough to generate a touch of cape
and pockets of drizzle/very light showers.

excellent subsidence and warming at the 850 mb level by day`s end
looks to support clear-mostly clear skies this evening/tonight.
light southwest winds ahead of a cold front tonight will bring a
renewed chance for high mvfr cigs late tomorrow morning, especially
across mbs and fnt where the lake michigan moisture contribution
looks to be maximized.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft this afternoon becoming low this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 4 pm sunday to 4 am est monday for lhz361-362.

small craft advisory from 4 am sunday to 4 am est monday for lhz421-
422.

small craft advisory from 10 am sunday to 4 am est monday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......aa
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.