Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
691
fxus61 kcle 041843
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
143 pm est wed mar 4 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast to the day from the previous
package.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled conditions with waves of low pressure and oscillating
stationary fronts through friday night, then a sharp cold front
saturday.

2) period of dry weather sunday and monday followed by another
frontal system midweek.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
warm front is slowly drifting northward, and seeing this in
temperature increases at mnn which have eclipsed the 50f mark.
expect further northward drift today, but still have a sharp
delineation between the airmasses across the cwa. as the front
drifts northward, expecting low level frontogenesis to follow suit,
and increasing pops through the evening and overnight period
tonight. some thunder is possible south of the boundary, but mucape
is overall meager and expect the bulk of this activity to stay south
of the cwa. still have forecast soundings favorable for fog tonight,
but this should be inhibited overall by rain, and will leave the fog
mentions as patchy. thursday into thursday night, expecting periodic
rain and isolated to scattered thunder with the stationary boundary
oscillating north and south within the cwa before finally lifting
north of lake erie friday when temperatures increase significantly
area wide. saturday is at least synoptically set up for convection,
and will wait for this time frame to make it into the spc forecast
for the day 3 period tonight, but with the warmer airmass and
dewpoint surge into the 55-60f range, this will probably be the most
likely day for thunderstorms with lower 70s possible.

key message 2...
after frontal passage, sunday temperatures fall off a bit but should
stay above normal, and a dry period with another warm up is expected
into early next week with a quieter pattern in place, that is,
without the waves of low pressure and stationary boundary. a robust
frontal system is looking more and more likely sometime in the
midweek time frame with potential for more thunderstorms, and then
sharply colder in its wake beyond the 7 day forecast.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
the local area will be socked in with non-vfr conditions over
the next 24 hours as a warm front slowly lifts north into the
local area. flight conditions will largely be limited by low
stratus with visibilities possibly tanking as rain lifts into
the area tonight through thursday. while there`s some potential
for marginal and brief improvements between rounds of rain, most
locations will likely experience a prolonged period of ifr/lifr
conditions through 18z thursday. a few thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out at kfdy/kmfd/kcak/kyng tonight.

winds will generally be light and out of the east/northeast
through tonight before winds become south/southwest and increase
to 5 to 10 knots behind the warm front towards the end of the
taf period.

outlook...occasional periods of rain through saturday will
likely bring additional non-vfr conditions.

&&

.marine...
east/northeast winds 10 knots or less will continue through
tonight before increasing to 10 to 20 knots as a warm front
lifts north towards the lake on thursday. winds will diminish to
less than 10 knots thursday night and shift to the southeast on
friday, however winds will become south/southwest and increase
to 10 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches from the west
friday night and saturday. there will likely be a period of
winds to 25 knots as the front crosses the lake saturday
afternoon. southwest winds will develop as a ridge briefly
builds over the lake towards the end of the weekend.

lake erie is still mostly ice covered, but above normal
temperatures will allow ice coverage to decay over the next
several days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
325
fxus63 kiwx 041825
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
125 pm est wed mar 4 2026

.key messages...

- areas of rain, drizzle and fog tonight into thursday.

- unseasonably mild and breezy on friday with chances (20-60%) for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

- showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-80%) late friday
night into saturday morning. a few storms may contain hail and
gusty winds.

- dry and remaining mild sunday into monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 125 pm est wed mar 4 2026

flow trajectories will shift to the southwest and advect an ohio
valley theta-e plume into the area tonight with periods of rain and
drizzle. this moisture advection will take place over a persistent
near sfc inversion that has held low clouds and cooler temps in
place for most since tuesday. a weak lead shortwave may also bring
greatest coverage of showers this evening into the early overnight
hours.

the main upper level vort and attendant sfc reflection, over mo as
of this writing, will continue east-northeast through the area
during the day on thursday. deeper moisture/forcing and marginal
elevated instability with lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km will
accompany this more pronounced shortwave with embedded heavier
showers/storms capable of small hail and heavier rainfall. overall
expectations tonight into thursday are for rainfall totals to
generally end up in the 0.50-0.75" range, though locally higher
amounts possible given the potential convective elements (best
chances south of us 24).

friday will feature a taste of spring as southwesterly flow deepens
in advance of a digging rockies/high plains upper trough. resulting
lee side cyclogenesis over the plains will also help transport gulf
moisture (~60f sfc dewpoint) and mild air northward within a
developing 30-50 kt low level jet. current expectations are for the
bulk of the day to be dry/breezy with the main moisture channel
initially west toward the ms river valley. however, did retain pops
(highest, 40-60%, over nw in and sw mi) as there could be a few
lower amplitude lead waves that could clip the local area.

models remain in good agreement on the aformentioned plains/rockies
low pressure system ejecting northeast through the upper midwest and
northern great lakes friday night. a cold front, and possibly a pre-
frontal trough, will trail this feature through the area later
friday night into saturday morning with chances for showers and
storms. spc`s marginal severe risk (1 out of 5) still looks good for
this timeframe given strong background flow and near 60 dewpoints if
any upstream activity can hold together this far east for a low end
wind/hail threat. trending cooler, yet still above normal, and dry
then post-frontal into saturday afternoon and sunday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1218 pm est wed mar 4 2026

the front remains well south of the forecast area near the ohio
river. easterly winds have increased and fog has thinned out,
but still seeing mvfr or worse conditions in the moist airmass, and
fwa is currently also experiencing drizzle. isentropic lift
north of the front will allow these conditions to persist, with
rain arriving later this evening. periodic rain showers can be
expected through most of the next 24 hours.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
474
fxus63 kdtx 042015
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
315 pm est wed mar 4 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog with pockets of light rain and drizzle tonight and
thursday morning.

- showers increase coverage thursday afternoon and evening. elevated
thunderstorms possible mainly south of i-94.

- a chance of showers and elevated thunderstorms late friday as a
warm front draws milder temperatures into the area.

- warmer conditions friday night and saturday with periods of
showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...

moist low level easterly flow within the backdrop of expansive high
pressure will maintain control through the evening hours. extensive
early day dense fog and low cloud across eastern/southern sections
largely eradicated for the moment under daytime heating. strong
signal remains for aggressive low level saturation to commence again
after sunset as mixing fades, prompting renewed expansion of a
combination of low stratus and fog. a general persistence forecast
suggests southern/eastern areas will again be most prone to an
earlier and more dense response tonight. mid level wave lifting
across the baroclinic zone stalled over the ohio valley will
initiate a modest window of moist isentropic ascent as the 850 mb
front eases into the region. this brings the potential for a chaotic
coverage of light shower production overnight and thursday morning.
forecast will continue to highlight greater potential from i-69
southward, while areas to the north favor dry conditions as
influence of easterly flow outweighs the meager moisture transport
this far up the frontal slope. this largely mitigates concern for
precipitation to arrive as freezing rain where temperatures still
hover near freezing thursday morning across the northern saginaw
valley and thumb region.

expansive region of low stratus and fog with some pockets of light
rain to mark the early day conditions thursday under pervasive,
moist low level easterly flow. another inbound, more dynamic
southern stream wave projected to lift across the quasi-stationary
frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. a more notable
increase in both moisture quality/depth and mid level forcing as the
elevated frontal zone enters the region will support a higher
coverage of rainfall across this window. a late day rumble of
thunder plausible south of i-94 as mid level stability briefly
declines. limited recovery in daylight temperature given the wet
profile. highs parked within a range from upper 30s north to mid 40s
south.

moderating thermal profile within the background of building large
scale upper heights friday. possibility for some lingering lower
stratus as low level flow remains backed slightly toward the
southeast gives pause to the degree of this warmup initially, noting
some solutions maintain a more conservative approach relative to the
outgoing forecast of low to mid 60s. brief increase in theta-e late
friday with the warm frontal passage will provide a chance of
showers/elevated thunder development, but with better potential
holding to the west into the evening. higher probability of rainfall
and accompanying thunder potential will await the arrival of better
cold frontal dynamics and moisture transport late friday night into
saturday. milder resident thermal profile now entrenched will afford
temperatures of roughly 20 to 25 degrees above average saturday -
highs in the 60s. drier conditions with temperatures firmly still
above average sunday into the start of next week.

&&

.marine...

milder airmass in place across the region supports the redevelopment
and expansion of fog over the southern great lakes and at least the
southern half of lake huron tonight. another marine dense fog
advisory will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area as
a result. low pressure lifts along the stalled front over the ohio
valley into the far southern great lakes thursday. locally, winds
shift to the east-northeast with gusts peaking between 20-25kts.
widespread showers, focused over the southern half of the region
accompany the system with a low chance for a thunderstorm or two
towards lake erie late day thursday.

brief dry period sets up early friday before another low lifts out
of the plains and over the northern great lakes. attendant warm
front crosses friday night shifting winds from the southeast to
southwest by early saturday. while flow aloft strengthens post-
front, much above normal airmass will maintain strong thermal
stability over the lakes which should cap gusts below 30kts, save
for immediately along the lakeshores. scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible with the warm front though better
coverage arrives daytime saturday as the system`s cold front crosses
the central great lakes. there is a brief window along/immediately
following the front where west/west-northwest gusts could near entry-
level gales. otherwise, southwesterly flow and milder air return by
sunday in response to low pressure tracking across northern ontario.

&&

.hydrology...

rounds of showers are expected thursday, with embedded thunderstorms
possible south of i-94 thursday afternoon. storm total rainfall
amounts are generally expected to range between 0.25" to 0.75",
although locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms
develop. additional showers and thunderstorms are expected friday
into this weekend. rises on area rivers and ponding of water on
roads is possible.

&&

.climate...

the record highest minimum temps for saturday, march 7th.

detroit: 47 degrees (set in 2012)
flint: 49 degrees (set in 2012)
saginaw: 49 degrees (set in 2012)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1256 pm est wed mar 4 2026

aviation...

a quick moving high pressure system and sunshine has worked to erode
and scour out fog and low clouds across most of the metro terminals.
the exception is across kdet, which has the closest proximity to the
marine layer off of lake erie. latest satellite observations hold
the difference between low stratus and clear skies right along the
edge of the terminal. latest thinking is that continued daytime
heating will work to erode the stratus layer, however, there is a
chance that stratus ends up holding right along the terminal give
east-southeast flow.

arrival of a low pressure system will then push a warm frontal
boundary around southern michigan which will advect low-level
moisture through the state overnight. the extensive ifr-lifr stratus
now across the ohio valley will push through michigan through at
least kptk and likely well into kfnt. drizzle will be likely given
good saturation in the low-levels. lower certainty regarding cigs
reaching ifr/lifr into kmbs, but confidence is higher that mvfr
cigs/vis reach that far north by the mid to late morning hours.

for dtw...expensive region of ifr/lifr stratus across the ohio
valley is expected to fill back in overnight. there is a low chance
for earlier arrival after sunset given east flow advecting lake erie
moisture inland.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 ft late tonight and
overnight.

* low for ceilings and visibilities below 200 ft and 1/2sm in fog
overnight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......kdk
hydrology....mv
climate......mv
aviation.....am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.