Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 210457
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1257 am edt fri aug 21 2026

...06z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
made minor adjustments to slow the eastward progression of pops
on saturday. raised pops in the east on sunday. trended high
temperatures down slightly sunday and monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will drift south
across inland portions of the area late this afternoon.

2) the next stretch of active weather will come saturday with
expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening. isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts are possible. additional showers and thunderstorms will
linger across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania saturday
night and sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure is located over maryland and virginia this
afternoon with cyclonic flow extending back across northern ohio
behind a cold front. while the airmass is undergoing drying, an
agitated cu field can be seen on satellite imagery from near
canton to bowling green. scattered showers are expected along
this southward drifting boundary this afternoon with generally
isolated coverage of thunderstorms. storms should begin to
diminish or push south of the area towards 7 pm.

key message 2...
following a dry day on friday, moisture will increase ahead of
a cold front on saturday. coverage of showers will be limited on
saturday morning but expected to see considerable expansion
during the afternoon as instability develop with a surface cold
front moving east and a potent upper level trough digging across
lake michigan. slowed down the eastward expansion of pops
slightly but do expect 70-80 percent coverage shifting east
through the afternoon and evening. the upper level cold pool
with 500mb temperatures of -14 to -16c will pivot east overhead
saturday night and should maintain some coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, especially over the warm waters of lake erie.
depending on the progress of the surface front, some low level
convergence could provide an added focus across lake erie. a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast for
saturday with a low end threat of both damaging wind gusts and
large hail. in addition, if any west to east bands of showers
and thunderstorms become stationary off the lake into nw
pennsylvania then a heavy rain threat could develop.

will need to make adjustments to pops on sunday/sunday night based
on available moisture and energy moving through the trough aloft.
850mb temperatures fall to around 8c on sunday and trended high
temperatures down a degree or two for both sunday and monday. there
is some spread among the long range models with respect to the
progression of the trough on monday. surface high pressure and dry
conditions are expected on tuesday.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
mainly vfr conditions and fair weather skies are expected for
this taf update. there may be some patchy light mvfr fog at fdy
and mfd this morning between 09z and 12z. otherwise, there are
no other impacts expected for aviation weather through the next
24 hours. winds will be light from the east 5 to 9 knots becoming
southeast towards the end of the taf period or by this evening.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms on
saturday. non-vfr conditions may continue saturday night into
sunday in lake enhanced showers and storms across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions will nice today on lake erie with a
light northeast to easterly winds 5 to 10 knots and waves of 1
to 2 feet. a low pressure system and cold front will approach
the eastern great lakes on saturday. winds will become southerly
to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots saturday and waves 1 to 3 feet.
behind the cold frontal passage, northwest winds will increase
15 to 20 knots late saturday night into sunday and waves will
increase 2 to 4 feet. a small craft advisory may be needed for
saturday night through sunday. there may be some rip current
potential as well for the later half of the weekend and some
beach hazard statements may also be needed. there will also be
the potential for some waterspouts on sunday with colder air
aloft moving over the warmer lake water. high pressure will
build in on monday and tuesday. winds on monday will be 5 to 15
knots from the west with waves 1 to 3 feet. calmer wind and
waves are expected by tuesday underneath the high pressure
system.




&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 210515
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
115 am edt fri aug 21 2026

.key messages...

- periodic showers and storms are expected today through
saturday. an isolated strong storm capable of gusty winds and
brief heavy rain is possible west of us-31 this evening and
east of i-69 saturday afternoon.

- it will be breezy this weekend with gusts up to 30 mph and
highs only in the mid/upper 70s. these gusty winds will lead
to dangerous swimming conditions on lake michigan beaches.

- dry and tranquil weather is anticipated monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 am edt fri aug 21 2026

piecemeal arrival of seasonably deep mid/upper low this weekend will
lead to several periods of scattered showers/storms and some breezy
conditions. a few subtle vorticity shreds are expected to pass
through the area this afternoon and tonight on the leading edge of
this upper low. forcing for vertical ascent is incredibly weak this
afternoon but modest instability is expected given surface dewpoints
still in the solid mid 60s to perhaps upper 60s. this will likely
support some widely scattered showers during the afternoon across
our central and eastern zones (very similar to yesterday) before the
more notable shortwave/convective complex enters our nw cwa this
evening. all of the necessary parameters for deep/organized
convection are marginal so not expecting much impacts but do think
it`s worth carrying a 20 pop. (most locations will likely remain
dry.) the evening wave features a little better mid/upper level
support in the left exit region of approaching jet streak. however,
it will likely arrive closer to sunset and thus losing the modest
(highly diurnally-driven) instability. shear values are also on the
marginal side (around 20 kts) so while i can`t entirely rule out a
strong storm in our far western zones, the chances appear low.

will likely have some showers continue through the overnight and
into sat morning as the primary cold front passes. the main concern
for sat will be in our far eastern zones during the afternoon. here,
a favorable alignment of synoptic forcing along the cold front, some
healthy diurnal instability (driven by a moist boundary layer and
decent midlevel lapse rates), and perhaps marginally-sufficient
shear could lead to our best severe weather chances. the problem is
the surface front exits our cwa awfully early and the best midlevel
cva trails well behind this surface front. best severe chances may
end up just e/se of our cwa but it will be close. some gusty winds
expected behind this front sat afternoon with a few gusts up to 30
mph possible given a tight gradient and efficient postfrontal
mixing. deep, moist cyclonic flow then settles into the area sat
night into sun. nbm initialization came in dry but wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few isolated showers during these two periods.
similarly breezy sun afternoon in what will certainly feel like the
first taste of fall given dewpoints crashing to near 50f and highs
only in the mid 70s.

anticyclonic low/midlevel flow then settles into the region for mon
and tue yielding what should be tranquil weather days. will have to
keep an eye on sharp moisture gradient just to our sw but for now it
seems to remain safely far enough from our cwa borders. the next
chance of rain is associated with another decent shortwave entering
the great lakes late wed and sending another cold front through the
area.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 115 am edt fri aug 21 2026

primarily vfr conditions expected this period. some shallow fog and
patchy stratus remain possible through the morning given light winds
and residual boundary layer moisture but confidence in impacts to
the terminals is not high. thunderstorms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening but likely to remain very isolated given poor
mid/upper level support. will hold off on any mention for now given
precip chances generally less than 30 percent.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 210406
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1206 am edt fri aug 21 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect the area saturday.

- cooler and breezy conditions arrive sunday with lingering shower
chances.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours as
high pressure moves through michigan. a easterly wind component will
become southerly this afternoon while holding between 5-10 knots.
mainly scattered high clouds through the rest of tonight with
increasing coverage towards this evening. ceilings should remain vfr
as increasing scattered mid clouds arrive mid-day with a low chance
for scattered showers tonight.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast for the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 pm edt thu aug 20 2026

discussion...

subtle mid level ridging developing over se mi tonight is forecast
to drift across the eastern great lakes friday. associated surface
high pressure and low level anticyclonic flow will hold across the
eastern great lakes through the day friday. the influence of this
system will maintain dry weather through the next 24 to 36 hours.
much like today, there will likely be areas of diurnally driven cu
and high based clouds on friday. light sse flow in the boundary
layer and diurnal mixing will support afternoon highs into the low
80s, which has fairly good support within the probabilistic
guidance. while south flow will begin advecting a little more
instability into the region friday afternoon, model soundings
indicate a strengthening mid level cap through the day which will
prove a formidable limiting factor on convective initiation.

long wave trough amplification across the great lakes saturday will
result in mid level height falls across se mi along with the passage
of a surface low and cold front. a plume of deep layer moisture
advection ahead of this trough late friday/friday night will drive
precipitable water values to 1.4 to 1.6 inches. the forced ascent
combined with the resident moisture and diurnal instability will
support a chance of showers/thunderstorms. the model prob space is
suggestive of high chances for rain saturday, over 80 percent.
within the probabilistic guidance, median qpf is around a quarter
inch, with a half inch to three quarters inch within the 90th
percentile. the chances for severe weather continue to look limited
(marginal risk/isolated) with sb cape values forecast to range from
800 to 1400 j/kg and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values of 20-30
knots.

post frontal northwest flow will drive cooler air across the great
lakes in the wake of the front; 850mb temps will drop into the
single digits on sunday. steep low level lapse rates the cool air
aloft will contribute to a healthy diurnal cu field on sunday. this
may support a few showers; the better chances will be across the
thumb given the added moisture flux off lake huron. the cool air and
daytime cloud cover will hold high temps in the 70s. remnant
northwest flow circulating around an eastern canadian upper low will
sustain seasonally cool temperatures into early next week. a
northern stream short wave will provide the next chance for
showers/thunderstorms during the middle of next week. at this stage
in the forecast there is still ample spread among ensemble members
with respect to timing and potential rainfall amounts.

marine...

surface high pressure lingers over ontario rest of today and friday,
maintaining an easterly component to the overall light wind field.
winds then veer to the south friday afternoon as a warm front lifts
into the great lakes. dry conditions are expected through the end of
the work week, followed by increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances through the day saturday as a low and its attendant cold
front sweep across lower michigan. this low strengthens as it moves
toward new england, strengthening post-frontal northwest flow and
elevating wind gusts toward 25-30 knots both sunday and monday. peak
gustiness is anticipated sunday afternoon-evening when cold
advection is strongest. quieter pattern returns briefly tuesday
before the next system arrives middle of next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.