Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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465
fxus61 kcle 271732
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
132 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

.what has changed...
the evolution of mcs development tonight and how it will translate
through the day today and later tonight will continue to be in
flux.

&&

.key messages...
1) rounds of convection possible today and tonight, hinging on the
initial systems this morning.

2) cooler airmass and high pressure into the end of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
all eyes this morning will be on the developing thunderstorm
complexes currently in northern minnesota and over eastern lake
superior. evolution has been slow thus far and ir imagery showing
cloud top cooling is minimal at this point although growing in size
over whitefish bay, and expect enhancement over the next few hours.
bulk shear vectors will take these developing complexes
southeastward into the southern great lakes, where cams/rapid update
models have had a hard time providing any consistency to their
solutions on where mcss will go and if/when they decay. as they move
towards the cleveland cwa, plenty of elevated instability to work
with, but atmospheric layer above the boundary layer needs some work
in terms of rh as it is pretty dry for the time being. outside of
the drier layer of air aloft, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and
usable mid level lapse rates exist. however, the timing of the mcs
works against it for our area as it tracks southeastward towards
dawn, and will likely suffer decay as cloud tops are forced to warm
with minimal low level jet energy in place. that said, there is an
expectation of a few lingering clusters of showers or showers with
isolated thunder this morning from the lake superior mcs. further
west, the minnesota system is one that hi res models and cams are
suggesting will survive into the daytime, and could affect our cwa
later today. ultimately, the forecast challenge here is that the
rest of the day and into the overnight is likely going to rely on
what happens with these initial systems, how long it takes or if the
atmosphere needs to recover from them, if there are lingering wake
mcvs, etc. expect an evolving forecast, but know that the chances
for convective activity will exist from this afternoon into the
overnight hours.

key message 2...
a cold front will come through tuesday morning with a wholesale
airmass change with cooler and drier air in place. additional upper
trough axes will swing through the cwa north to south, and the
onshore flow coupled with this could generate showers with some lake
enhancement as the 850mb temperatures drop into the lower teens.
high pressure will then settle into the southern great lakes for the
end of the week with temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s
through thursday.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
two upstream areas of convection are being monitored for taf
impacts for late this afternoon through this evening. the first
is currently near chicago and the second is over lake huron. if
these areas of convection maintain their current
trajectories/strength, they will likely make it into the area by
around 21-22z. overall, confidence in rain occurring at any
given taf site is high through this evening, but coverage of
thunderstorms is low so have maintained prevailing showers with
vcts/prob30 groups for thunderstorms. amendments will likely be
needed as the upstream convection becomes closer. either way,
any storms that move over terminals this evening could produce
non-vfr conditions and erratic and gusty winds. additional
showers and storms are possible into the overnight hours with
rain chances decreasing early tuesday morning. mvfr ceilings
will develop late tonight/early tuesday morning with conditions
likely improving from the west towards the end of the taf
period.

winds will be out of the southwest at 6 to 12 knots with gusts
to 20 knots through tonight before becoming northwest at 8 to
14 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots at around 12z tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr may persist in lower ceilings and scattered
showers through wednesday, primarily across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. non-vfr possible in scattered showers
and thunderstorms on saturday.

&&

.marine...
light winds will increase to southwest winds 8-12 knots this
morning. winds will shift southerly and gradually increase to
15-20 knots this evening before eventually turning northerly at
20-25 knots by tuesday morning. northerly winds continue
through wednesday. given elevated onshore flow wave heights are
expected to build to 3-6 feet both tuesday and wednesday. will
likely need small craft advisories and beach hazard statements
for this timeframe. high pressure will approach from the west
allowing for northerly winds 15-25 knots to diminish to 10-15
knots by thursday morning before winds become light and variable
on friday.

a series of weakening thunderstorm complexes moving in the
vicinity of lake erie remain possible through tonight. winds and
waves may be locally higher in any thunderstorm that does move
over the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...15
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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090
fxus63 kiwx 271647
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1247 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

.key messages...

- there is an enhanced risk for severe weather today. clusters
of strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and
evening. the greatest severe weather threat is expected from
2pm to 10pm edt.

- damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph will be the main threat,
with potential for scattered significant gusts over 75 mph.
an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- dry and seasonable tuesday through thursday.

- high swim risk tuesday for southeast lake michigan beaches.

&&

.update...
issued at 1058 am edt mon jul 27 2026

factors appear to be coming together for an increased risk of
severe storms this afternoon into early this evening. an initial
band of showers and isolated storms at leading edge of fairly
strong low level theta-e gradient has largely weakened, but
renewed convective development has been noted past hour from
central lake mi to northeast illinois. these storms are forming
in a very unstable environment with rap near term analyses
indicating 4-5k j/kg of mlcape across northern illinois. a
minimum in instability is noted across northeast indiana this
morning, but this instability gradient should be shifting
eastward over the next few hours. in addition, some synoptic
support will increase over next few hours for an organized
severe threat as mid/upper jet streak shifts eastward across the
southern great lakes region with effective shear values
increasing to 50-60 knots. damaging wind gusts of 70+ mph still
appears to be the primary threat, but isolated large hail will
be possible (especially through mid/late afternoon). also, with
increasing shear profiles cannot rule out some potential of
embedded circulations in the line given 0-3km shear vectors from
northwest around 30 knots. a good deal of uncertainty still
persists regarding window of discrete storm development and
extent of more organized mcs cold pool that could yield
widespread damaging winds. timing of the greatest severe threat
from 18z-02z still looks reasonable, although if more organized
forward propagating system develops this timing could be moved
up a bit with earlier diminishment in severe threat later this
evening.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 305 am edt mon jul 27 2026

our area has been upgraded into an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for
severe weather with strong to severe storms likely later today.
today`s severe weather setup is becoming more clear and confidence
is increasing as model guidance (especially recent runs of the hrrr)
points towards a strong mcs pushing through this afternoon and early
evening. radar and satellite trends over the past 6-12 hours show
that convection has been slow to develop overnight in minnesota and
wisconsin, which means timing has shifted towards the the
afternoon into the evening for strong to severe storms in our
forecast area. we continue to monitor ongoing thunderstorms
over northeast minnesota and northern wisconsin, as this
activity should intensity as it propagates south/southeast along
the periphery of the upper level ridge into michigan and
eventually northern indiana and northwest ohio by early to mid
afternoon. there is still some uncertainty on exact track and
timing of storms but the best timing appears to be between 2
edt to 8 pm edt today. with a lack of storms in the area this
morning, this allows the airmass overhead ample time to heat up
and destabilize before storms come through around peak diurnal
heating. highs are expected to be near 90s today with dewpoints
in the 70s, which should fuel sbcape values of up to 2500-4000
j/kg by early afternoon. shear is expected to be around 30 to 40
kts and mid level lapse rates look favorable around 7-8 c/km.
these are favorable parameters that will support a threat for
damaging winds of 60-70 mph. there is potential for significant
gusts over 75 mph as cig 1 hatching has been added for our
entire forecast area by spc in the new day 1 outlook. an
isolated brief tornado or two is also possible, especially with
o-1 km srh values of 150-250 m2/s2.

additional scattered storms are possible after 8 pm along a diffuse
frontal boundary that tracks northwest to southeast, potentially
clipping northeast indiana and northwest ohio. have maintained nbm
pops from 8 pm edt tonight to 2 am edt tuesday given considerable
uncertainty. the severe threat should be much lower with these
storms given the likelihood for a stronger mcs earlier in the day as
mentioned above.

the good news is that after this evening, the threat for severe
weather will be over and we will have several dry days ahead. a cold
front will sweep through tuesday, setting the stage for several days
with highs in the mid 80s as high pressure builds over the great
lakes. it will be dry at least through thursday with intermittent
low chances (20-30%) for rain/storm returning by friday and into the
weekend.

additionally, as winds shift to become northwesterly on tuesday,
dangerous swimming conditions are expected to develop for southeast
lake michigan beaches on tuesday. waves of 3 to 5 feet tuesday
morning will build to 7 to 10 feet by tuesday afternoon/evening.
with direct onshore flow, strong structural, rip, and longshore
currents are expected. structural currents will be especially strong
on the north side of piers. stay out of the water and stay off of
the piers! beach hazards statements have been issued for la porte
county, in and berrien county, mi from early tuesday through
daybreak wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1245 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

cluster of thunderstorms from mke south through ord are the
primary item of focus for this taf period. rather high
confidence in storms persisting through ksbn, and perhaps a
tinge of uncertainty toward kfwa. for now, the environment is
highly supportive of sustained convection.

behind these thunderstorms, northerly flow eventually brings an
area of stratus down behind a thermal trough descending through
michigan prior to sunrise. as always, it is uncertain how long
stratus will persist into tuesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 6 pm edt /5 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz012-013-020-103-203.
beach hazards statement from late tonight through wednesday
morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from late tonight through wednesday
morning for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am tuesday to 2 am edt wednesday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 271751
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
151 pm edt mon jul 27 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast today, some of
which may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

- dry and a little cooler weather will dominate the mid week period.

&&

.aviation...

the southeast michigan terminal corridor resides between two
convective areas this afternoon with a multiple clusters of
thunderstorms to the west and a small cluster of thunderstorms around
the thumb shoreline. this leaves predominately vfr conditions across
taf sites to start this afternoon. given the latest radar trends,
the main adjustment for this afternoon package is pushing timing of
thunderstorms a few hours later while maintaining a prob30. there is
not high enough confidence given the sse storm trajectory to the west
that a high coverage of more intense thunderstorms works into the
terminal corridor. there still remains a chance thunderstorm activity
moving into west/central lower michigan can reach the i-75 corridor
towards 20z and into the early evening and/or for additional
development if the cap weakens. then there still remains some
potential for later tonight closer to the front to generate some
additional shower activity tonight. will maintain the prob30 here as
well. there is decent signal for mvfr ceilings to develop tonight
into tomorrow as the front passes as northwest winds develop and gust
to around 20 knots by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...chances for intense thunderstorms appears to be
lower given the latest radar trends this afternoon. there still
remains a chance for thunderstorms to roll into the area or develop
later this afternoon and possibly the early evening, but confidence
is not high. additional showers and possible thunderstorm activity
tonight. confidence is low for this as well.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today and tonight. high by
tuesday morning.

* low to medium for thunderstorms this afternoon-evening. low
overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1015 am edt mon jul 27 2026

update...

southeast michigan remains situated east of nocturnal mcs remnants,
currently tracking south-southeastward along western lower michigan.
06z and early 12z cam guidance remains poorly correlated with
respect to convective evolution for the rest of today. made some
minor near-term pop reductions to communicate lower confidence in
morning convection, aside from the thumb where storms have exhibited
staying power after developing over apx`s area.

for the rest of today, the 12z hrrr solution makes intuitive sense,
relative to the other options, in a squall line organizing upstream
and strengthening through the local area this afternoon/evening.
note that the hrrr initialization is also struggling with placement
of a western up storm complex, in addition to an impressive and
growing cell over north-central lake huron. nonetheless, will
continue to focus on the afternoon timeframe with upward adjustments
in pops to high-end likelies between 19z and 23z in order to account
for the accelerating southward progress of aforementioned linear
convection. 27.12z kdtx raob sampled steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of
nearly 8 c/km and a mucape of nearly 2.7 kj/kg (from 938 mb). swody1
continues to highlight slight to enhanced risk, with the main
concern being straight-line wind damage per unidirectional shear in
the lowest 3 km. large hail will still be possible where instability
is fully realized.

prev discussion...
issued at 301 am edt mon jul 27 2026

discussion...

the potential for clusters of showers/thunderstorms today and
continued spread among hi res solutions in their forecast evolution
of convection during the first half of the day leads to continued
uncertainty with respect to timing and severe weather potential.
frequent meso analysis throughout the day will be in order to fully
gauge severe potential through the course of today.

overnight meso analysis indicates the edge of the elevated mixed
layer extending into lower michigan, contributing to 0-3km mu cape
of 1500 to 2000 j/kg. regional radar mosaic shows an axis of
convection extending along the edge of the mid level cap and within
the gradient of a high instability axis extending from the arrowhead
of minnesota down to northeast wisconsin. another cluster of
thunderstorms over eastern upper mi is tied to a mid level short
wave impulse, forecast to slide across lake huron and portions of se
mi early this morning. this will at least offer the potential for
elevated convection to slide into portions of the forecast area from
the north early. veering of the low level inflow across the western
great lakes this morning will attempt to drive an influx of higher
sfc based instability into southern lower mi. this will be
contingent upon the evolution of convection across wisconsin/ne
minnesota and the extent of any elevated morning convection dropping
into the area from the north. the potential for the aforementioned
convection to the northwest to evolve into a forward propagating mcs
with a robust rear inflow jet has resulted in spc upgrading sw lower
mi and the swrn portions of the dtx cwa from a slight to enhanced
risk.

stronger larger scale ascent along the nose of a 110 knot upper jet
and additional mid level short wave energy will arrive across srn mi
late this afternoon and evening. this will support a high
probability of showers and thunderstorms. severe weather potential
during this time period will have a large dependence on the coverage
of early day convection and the efficiency with which it erodes the
instability reservoir if at all. the variation in how hi res
solutions handle early day convection also results in a wide array of
forecast storm relative helicity and mid level shear values. this
again highlights the importance frequent meso analysis will have
during the course of the day.

mid level trough amplification across the eastern great lakes
overnight into tuesday will drive cooler and less humid air into
lower mi, which will persist through mid week. model soundings
suggest the depth of diurnal cu development on tuesday may support a
few light showers/sprinkles. mid level anticyclonic flow and sfc
high pressure will envelop the region by wednesday, warranting a dry
forecast.

marine...

a low pressure system tracks across the northern great lakes today.
thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage and
intensity with this system, especially along the trailing cold front
that brings a chance of severe thunderstorms as it moves through the
region in the afternoon and evening. outside of storms, wind and
waves are low until the northerly wind shift post front late today
night into tuesday when speeds likely reach 25 to 30 knots over
southern lake huron. small craft advisories will likely be needed as
elevated waves build over the southern lake huron basin. winds
slowly diminish on wednesday as large area of high pressure over the
western great lakes slowly advances east, arriving on thursday. this
will assure dry conditions for those days.

hydrology...

shower and thunderstorms will be possible at any time today. more
widespread convection is expected from late afternoon through
evening. intense rainfall rates will be possible with some of the
thunderstorms. probabilities for total rainfall between a quarter
inch and three quarters inch are moderate to high. probabilities for
rainfall totals over an inch remain low (less than 20 percent).
however, some localized higher totals are certainly possible.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
update.......kgk
discussion...sc
marine.......sf
hydrology....sc


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.