Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
131
fxus61 kcle 090709
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
309 am edt thu jul 9 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes. the potential for rain on saturday
across our southern counties has trended slightly higher.

&&

.key messages...
1) occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
area late today through friday. there is a marginal risk (level
1 of 5) for isolated damaging winds across northwest ohio, lake
erie, and the eastern lakeshore late today into tonight. some
thunderstorms can also produce heavy rain through friday.

2) rain chances may linger into saturday before a drying trend
this weekend into early next week. temperatures trend above
average early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and
gradually sag across the area friday afternoon and evening.
aloft, a shortwave is tracking across the upper ohio valley this
morning. a northern stream shortwave tracks across the southern
great lakes this afternoon and evening. another weak shortwave
will track through the ohio valley tonight into friday morning.
the combination of the front, shortwaves, and the return of a
moist and unstable airmass will allow for occasional
opportunities for showers and storms through friday.

we will largely start dry today, but may have a couple of
showers from eastern oh into northwestern pa early in proximity
to the ohio valley shortwave. will then turn attention to
extreme northeast oh/northwest pa early to mid-afternoon, when a
lake breeze pushes inland and potentially sparks isolated to
widely scattered showers/storms. otherwise, greater rain
potential waits until closer to this evening. storms are still
favored to develop in closer proximity to the front across
parts of southern mi, northern in, and far northwest oh by late
this afternoon as we reach peak heating and as a shortwave
begins tracking across the southern great lakes. this activity
will try spreading east-southeast into the area through this
evening, though there is not great agreement on how far this
activity can progress as it outruns the front and greatest
instability. suspect that if activity is able to organize into a
cluster that it should spread at least as far east-southeast as
the i-71 corridor through the evening if not a bit farther,
though models show considerable disagreement on that.

after perhaps a lull following the evening convection, another
uptick is favored overnight as the next shortwave moves into the
ohio valley and as the front continues slowly approaching. this
uptick in showers and storms may linger into friday morning,
especially from eastern oh into pa. we`ll likely see activity
exit east with the shortwave friday morning, but with the front
still sagging through the area and a humid airmass in place am
expecting at least scattered re-development along and ahead of
the front by early afternoon, with activity continuing through
the afternoon before exiting south or weakening friday night.

the spc maintains a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather in the form of damaging winds across northwest oh, lake
erie, and the adjacent eastern lakeshore for this afternoon and
evening. mlcape values of 1000-1500 j/kg (with a tall/skinny
cape profile) and 20-25kt of bulk shear may support loosely
organized convection, with strong heating and well-mixed low-
levels suggesting potential for cold pool development and
organization with any clusters of storms...this can support the
isolated damaging wind threat. severe weather is unlikely on
friday due to weaker heating and minimal shear. otherwise, the
other concern is potential for locally heavy rain as
precipitable waters climb to 1.75-2.00" tonight into friday.
this amount of moisture, combined with skinny instability
profiles and high freezing levels, can support very efficient
rain rates within convection tonight and friday. the main
concern may be overnight tonight into friday morning when there
is some signal for training convection along or just ahead of
the sagging front. with plenty of disagreement on the overall
evolution of convection on hi-res models, it`s hard to be too
confident if or where any heavy rain and potential for localized
flash flooding would play out. still, some potential is evident
and the wpc has the area highlighted in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall/flash flooding for tonight and friday.

highs will reach the mid to upper 80s today before scaling back
a few degrees into the low to mid 80s on friday. overnight lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. dew points will
climb into the upper 60s to near 70 tonight and friday.

key message 2...
a shortwave and low pressure will dive through the ohio valley
saturday into saturday night. the front will stall close to our
southern counties late tonight and saturday, and the overall
setup has trended a bit farther north in recent model runs.
potential for at least some showers is enough to warrant a
20-40% forecast mention across our south on saturday. also have
a small shower mention along parts of the western lakeshore late
friday night into saturday, as some models suggest enough
moisture for a few lake-enhanced sprinkles or showers in the ene
flow. the forecast trends drier saturday night into sunday,
though it`s worth noting that some models hint at a few isolated
showers on sunday owing to high pressure building in slower
than expected and low pressure still drifting through the ohio
valley...one small thing to monitor. high pressure does finally
build in more firmly by sunday night and lingers through the
first half of the week, providing for a prolonged stretch of
mainly dry weather. temperatures are expected to warm above
normal for the first half of next week, potentially into the 90s
for highs, especially across northwest ohio. there remains a
fair amount of ensemble spread regarding how quickly ridging
over the central u.s. expands east next week, which will have
influence on our temperatures.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr conditions are largely expected through most of the taf
period with mid to upper-level clouds streaming across the area,
and conditions too dry for fog this morning.

scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from
the northwest thursday evening and overnight, though low
coverage of storms and uncertainty in timing will limit the
inclusion of tsra or non-vfr conditions in most tafs. best
confidence is at ktol where most models have convection moving
in during the afternoon, when peak heating will contribute to
the best chance of seeing lighting (though still relatively low
so only included a prob30).

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms through
saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions expected as weak high pressure lingers
over the area this morning. southwest winds around 5-10 knots
become west during the day with waves generally 2 feet or less.

a cold front will sag south across lake erie tonight into
friday. scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the
western basin late this afternoon before coverage increases
across the lake tonight. there is a low chance of thunderstorms
producing locally gusty winds and briefly higher wave heights.

winds will turn west to northwest behind the front friday, then
northeast this weekend as high pressure builds north of the
lake. wave should remain 2 feet or less through friday, with 1
to 3 feet possible in the western basin this weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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593
fxus63 kiwx 090559
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
159 am edt thu jul 9 2026

.key messages...

- thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. a few of these
storms may be strong, capable of isolated gusty winds and
heavy rain.

- thunderstorms are also possible friday and saturday but severe
weather is not expected.

- turning hot and dry next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 159 am edt thu jul 9 2026

challenging short-term forecast today with several rounds of
iso/sct thunderstorms possible through tomorrow. weak,
positively tilted midlevel trough axis just upstream will cross
the region today. associated uptick in southwesterly low level
flow will advect some higher theta-e air into the area, though
best moisture remains locked over southern il/in. this will
yield marginal instability (sbcape`s roughly 1500-2000 j/kg) by
later today, which is enough to support a few strong storms but
insufficient for a widespread severe threat. that is especially
true given lackluster shear as well (0-6km bulk shear only
around 25 kts). the challenge lies in picking out very subtle
forcing mechanisms that will dictate timing and location/coverage
over the next 24-36 hours. convection just to our northwest
will continue to weaken through the early morning but remnant
outflow and approaching midlevel wave could spark a few storms
in our nw as early as 13z. not expecting much out of these given
limited instability but still worth noting. better (?) chances
arrive during the late afternoon with peak diurnal heating but
here again there is not much to focus/augment convection and
coverage could remain very isolated. tonight may actually
feature the best rain chances (for our southern zones anyway) as
models suggest a few mcv`s may kick out of missouri and perhaps
clip our s/se counties. overall confidence is low however given
better moisture gradient and mcv track will be south of our
cwa. any severe risk (damaging winds) would likely be with
convection arriving late this afternoon and evening with heavy
rain being the primary concern overnight. overall risk is low
for both though and will likely need to fine-tune pop grids
through the day as these subtle forcing mechanisms show
themselves.

low confidence in today`s forecast cascades into uncertainty for
fri and sat as well. models suggest more convectively-enhanced
shortwaves ejecting out of the central plains but likely
tracking just south of our area. blended initialization
maintains some low pop`s for our southern zones into sat but
could easily see those getting trimmed further. no severe
weather expected with any storms that do manage to develop in
our area fri-sat. large, strong ridge still slated to develop
over the central conus early next week and eventually nose into
our region. still some disagreement exactly how far east this
ridge builds and whether we might be able to squeeze out some
precip chances/cooler temps on the e/ne fringe. that is looking
less likely with each new run though and a trend to simply hot
and dry conditions for much of next week seems more likely.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 159 am edt thu jul 9 2026

low confidence forecast today with regard to thunderstorm timing
and coverage. isolated storms associated with initial moisture
surge may be possible roughly 13-18z but confidence is too low
to include in the taf`s at this time. better chances arrive late
afternoon/evening but forcing is very weak and most cam`s show
limited coverage. conditions should remain vfr outside of any
storms, though.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 090750
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
350 am edt thu jul 9 2026

.key messages...

- thunderstorms increase coverage and intensity while spreading from
the tri cities and northern thumb toward metro detroit today.

- isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the
primary hazards with the strongest storms this afternoon and
evening. the best chance for marginally severe storms is across the
detroit metro area and points south.

- dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the weekend.

- a new heat wave is on schedule for next week (3 consecutive days of
highs 90+ degrees).

&&

.discussion...

showers and a rumble of thunder, ongoing over central lower mi at
forecast issuance, is sustained by a well-defined mcv shown in
composite radar data. it is embedded within the low to mid level
moisture axis positioned sw to ne ahead of the surface front. there
is also some lingering elevated instability judging by the 00z dtx
and model soundings, an environment capable of sustaining the
showers and producing a rumble of thunder through early morning.

the forecast is also focused on initiation timing of the new surface
based convective cycle as the front settles slowly southward across
southern lower mi this afternoon and evening. a preferred scenario
has an early day round of storms ahead of the front followed by or
merging with a late day and evening phase of activity accompanying
the frontal passage. the early day phase is tied to differential
heating created by the showers leading up to sunrise and a hefty
band of cloud debris that lingers during the morning. an outflow
boundary in surface analyses has potential to provide a focusing
mechanism in the differential heating zone generally north of i-69
as surface instability quickly increases. model soundings are
uncapped and favorable for development around or shortly after 12 pm
as href mean surface based cape increases into the 1000-1500 j/kg
range. thunderstorm clusters move from there southward toward metro
detroit mid to late afternoon while approaching severe intensity on
an isolated basis and in line with the spc marginal risk. multicell
organization is reachable in 25-30 kts of westerly 0-6 km bulk
shear, although shown in model data to decrease from north to south
across the region. locally heavy rainfall also remains a hazard to
highlight as pw rises into the 1.5 to 2 inch range within the
moisture axis ahead of the front. the front itself then becomes the
focus for a second round of storms that develop back toward the tri
cities and northern thumb late in the day and this evening.
intensity will be strongly dependent on recovery of instability
before daytime heating wanes after 00z, however scattered to
numerous coverage is expected to fill in along the front as it moves
into and south of the i-69 corridor this evening.

the surface front/wind shift is then on schedule to move south of
the ohio border early friday morning. the new 00z model runs remain
in good agreement on this timing, along with a few showers within
the trailing mid level frontal zone still over se mi through the
morning. chance/scattered coverage looks reasonable in the 00z nbm
forecast update for the area generally south of i-69 friday morning.
the long wave ridge building over central canada and the northern
plains produces surface high pressure in northern ontario and quebec
that is strong enough to push the front farther into the ohio valley
friday afternoon and night. the inbound air mass is slightly cooler
and less humid as shown by consensus model projections of surface td
dropping into the 50s friday night and saturday.

continued amplification of the mid/upper level long wave ridge is
centered over the plains with a tilt toward hudson bay by sunday.
this configuration favors leaning the forecast toward a few days of
dry weather while monitoring convective trends to the north. this
leads into the weather highlight for early next week tied to a new
round of heat on track to increase as the mid/upper level ridge
builds into a west to east configuration from the plains into the
great lakes. this is in a better position to block gulf/atlantic
humidity as a limiting factor for heat index, however the strength
of the ridge adds confidence to a return of lower to mid 90s in
guidance temperatures for the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.marine...

this afternoon we expect to have a weak low pressure system trek
across north lower michigan, bringing the chance for showers and
even an isolated severe weather threat from saginaw bay down to the
lake erie shore. the main threat for any thunderstorms that could
develop would be wind gusts of 34+ knots. nonetheless lake huron and
saginaw bay can expect light winds veering from the southwest to the
north throughout the day, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible
depending on the positioning of the low pressure. lake st. clair and
lake erie shore can expect light winds as well veering from the
southwest to the west throughout the day.

tomorrow looks to potentially bring some modest wind flow to the
lake huron and bay area as a modest pressure gradient could develop
between a departing low pressure and developing high pressure. this
could lead to some enhanced wind flow in the bay depending on the
positioning of these systems. flow is expected to be out of the
northeast at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts of 20+ knots possible in the
afternoon/evening hours. lake st. clair and lake erie shore look to
be more tame with light winds out of the north expected.

a high pressure system is expected to develop over the region
throughout the weekend, bringing warmer and calmer weather.

&&

.hydrology...

a slow moving cold front is on schedule to settle through southern
lower michigan today and tonight serving as the focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms. the greatest coverage and intensity is
expected this afternoon and evening with a chance of locally heavy
rain across the area. basin average rainfall of a quarter to a half
inch is most likely with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with
greater thunderstorm coverage. the slow movement of the front could
also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to
localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. this
presents minor urban flooding potential along with ponding of water
on roads and in other prone areas. scattered showers and a chance of
thunderstorms lingers into friday, mainly south of m-59, before
coming to an end friday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1221 am edt thu jul 9 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions across southeast michigan early tonight with light
winds out of the west-southwest. a slow moving frontal boundary will
lead to increasingly lower ceilings and shower and thunderstorm
chances into mid to late this morning with increasing thunderstorm
chances focused mainly in the afternoon. will include tempo groups
given the higher likelihood of scattered thunderstorms expected this
afternoon, some of which could become strong to marginally severe.
mbs will likely see an earlier time window for thunderstorms
tomorrow with potential for morning showers prior to thunderstorm
chances.

d21/dtw convection...scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon
within the 17-23z window. most likely start time is around 19z at
dtw. two or three total rounds of storms are possible before friday
morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunder this afternoon and/or evening.

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and
evening


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......zb/tf
hydrology....bt
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.