Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
215 am edt fri oct 30 2026

.what has changed...
there were no changes needed with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will allow for quiet and near-normal
temperatures into this weekend.

2) scattered periods of showers are expected next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a departing cold front early this morning will allow for high
pressure to build southeast across the area today. a few light
showers are possible across far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania early this morning before dry conditions and near-
normal temperatures return today. highs today will be a bit cooler
than recent days with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly
sunny skies. on saturday, highs will be in the low 60s with
increasing cloud cover expected. overnight lows tonight will be the
coldest in northwest pennsylvania with temperatures falling into the
low to mid 30s, but elsewhere will remain in the 40s. lows on
saturday night will be milder, falling into the mid to upper 40s.

key message 2...
as the aforementioned high pressure drifts towards the mid-atlantic
coast on sunday, a weak warm front will lift north across the area
bringing the potential for isolated, light rain showers. the
associated low pressure and upper level trough are expected to
slowly build east into the region through midweek next week,
increasing the potential for showers mid to late week. overall
confidence in the best timing for showers is low given model
divergence in the progression of the system as the dominant ridging
pattern recently observed slowly becomes progressive. temperatures
through the period will continue to remain above normal with high
peaking on tuesday and wednesday when temperatures climb into the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
at 06z a cold front extended from eri to mfd and is moving
southeast. winds ahead of the front are southwesterly but will
shift to northwesterly behind the front through 07z. rain
showers associated with the front have ended but some pockets of
mvfr cloud are possible, mainly at eri but may also briefly
impact yng through 10z. a longer period of mvfr may linger at
eri with some lake enhanced cloud continuing through friday
morning. otherwise, most other terminals will trend towards
clearing low clouds and mostly sunny skies for today. while a
few wind gusts to 20 knots remain possible through about 08z
near lake erie, winds will tend to settle into the 5-10 knot
range through this afternoon then become light easterly tonight.

outlook...apart from low rain chances monday into tuesday,
mainly vfr expected through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
this morning, a weak cold front will continue to depart to the east,
leaving elevated northwest winds behind the boundary across the
central basin of lake erie. onshore winds of 15-20 knots are
forecast allowing waves to build to 3-5 feet from vermilion to
conneaut oh. as a result, a small craft advisory has been issued for
these nearshore waters through 10z this morning.

behind this departing boundary, high pressure will begin to build
southeast across lake erie which will allow winds to weaken to 5-10
knots and slowly a more easterly component into saturday. on sunday,
a weak warm front will lift north allowing for winds to become south-
southwesterly at 5-10 knots which are expected to persist through
monday. as the parent low pressure slowly drifts towards the region,
increased gradient on tuesday will allow for the southerly winds to
increase to 10-15 knots before strengthening a bit more on tuesday
night. these elevated winds will likely occur off and on throughout
the week as the pattern becomes more progressive. at this point any
potential for marine headlines remains low given the marginal
conditions expected, but will need to continue to monitor the trend
in winds over the coming days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
lez145>148.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...10
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
258 am edt fri oct 30 2026

.key messages...

- patchy dense fog early this morning.

- not as warm today through the weekend with highs in the low-
to-mid 60s.

- plenty of dry time on halloween, but there is a 20-30% chance
of rain showers west of i-69.

- periods of rain next week and very mild on tuesday.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 258 am edt fri oct 30 2026

high pressure seeps in today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front.
light northwesterly flow after sunset prompted areas of lake-
enhanced fog generally along and west of us 31, with patchy
instances of dense fog as far east as huntington and marion. overall
this fog has been rather transient, with observations bouncing
around except in a couple pesky locations. water vapor depicts
a mid- level trough axis now exiting mi which should prompt
northeast flow to bring drier air into the region over these
next few hours, working to mix out locally dense fog.

falling shy of a record high temperature by 1 degree at fort
wayne yesterday, today will be cooler with highs only in the
low-to-mid 60s area-wide (yet normal for this date is 57).
temperatures of this magnitude are in store for much of the
forecast period with the exception of tuesday and wednesday when
70s return thanks to robust warm air advection ahead of a mid
latitude cyclone. but first, a weak warm front attempts to lifts
into the mid-missippi valley saturday morning bringing a 20-30%
chance of isolated rain showers to areas west of i-69. plenty
of dry hours on halloween but rather cloudy with high
temperatures generally near 60.

rain chances become more widespread next week starting with a
trough passing through the ohio valley sunday afternoon and
evening (20-30% chance for now, with the trough`s track still in
flux). the primary system we`ve been monitoring spills onshore
of the west coast this weekend, arriving to our doorstep
tuesday/wednesday. low pressure emerges in the lee of the
rockies as a deep trough pushes inland. a surface low wraps up
over the northern plains, occludes, prompting renewed
cyclogenesis of the central plains. this spells a period of
mild and breezy conditions locally on tuesday and wednesday as
the upper-level pattern becomes highly amplified over the
eastern great lakes. a period of steady rain is probable
wednesday as this system moves through. at this distance, any
severe weather risk appears to lie elsewhere owing to a
distinct lack of instability. wet weather may linger into the
end of the week depending on how the low wraps up over the
eastern conus. no significant cool-downs noted in its wake. &&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1249 am edt fri oct 30 2026

a cold front has now exited the area which ultimately prompted a
brief period of marine-enhanced fog. this area of fog appears to
be drifting sse based on satellite and surface observations.
medium-high confidence this marine-modified air mass will
bypass kfwa. flow veers to become nne later this morning which
will disrupt the modified air mass. otherwise today, increasing
high clouds as a disorganized area of low pressure lifts into
the midwest. rain is possible at ksbn just beyond this taf
period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
602 am edt fri oct 30 2026

.key messages...

- cooler but still above normal temperatures today and saturday.

- low chance for a few light showers late saturday towards central
mi.

- warm conditions with humidity will be possible early to middle
next week.

&&

.aviation...

shallow post-frontal moisture advection within prevailing northwest
flow will maintain some filaments of lower stratus this morning.
observational and satellite trends suggest limited enough coverage
to maintain simply a scattered mention thru the duration of the
morning period. otherwise, increasingly dry and stable conditions
will offer mostly clear skies during the daylight period. high cloud
thickens and gradually lowers tonight as high pressure shifts
through the region. existing north to northwest wind turning light
and variable overnight.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft friday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 339 am edt fri oct 30 2026

discussion...

upper midwestern surface high pressure fully expands over lower mi
today promoting mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies and a light
northwest breeze. thermal troughing following yesterday`s cold front
only glances the area, focused towards lake huron, supporting a
`cool` day though still a few degrees above late october normals
with highs ranging mid-50s (thumb) to low 60s towards ohio.
generally favorable radiative cooling setup tonight as the center of
high pressure drifts overhead turning winds calm, though cirrus tied
to a developing warm front over the midwest will attempt to lift in
from sw mi. this likely results in a decent sw-ne gradient in
overnight lows with the northeastern half, where cloud cover will be
lesser, seeing lows well into the lower 30s whereas the southwestern
half see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

influence of said high holds for the bulk of the day saturday
maintaining dry conditions save for perhaps the ohio border area.
aforementioned warm front lifts into the upper mississippi/western
great lakes latter half of saturday before washing out saturday
night. accompanying moisture transport is directed west of lake
michigan as only the periphery of elevated theta-e reaches se mi.
given the resident dry airmass still in place from the prior high,
rain activity will struggle the further east it advances across the
state. as a result, areas closer to central/south-central mi stand
the best shot at seeing isolated to scattered light showers (only a
few hundreths of qpf at best) sat-sat night.

early week remains unclear wrt to rain chances as diffuse vorticity
(tied to the old front) works into ohio valley/southern great lakes.
secondary push of theta-e, now in the lower levels as well, offers a
low chance for scattered light showers early monday however weak
synoptic forcing acts as a limiting factor with some model solutions
remaining dry. mid-late week period characterized by large pacific
northwest upper trough slowly translating across the central conus.
slow moving attendant cold front eventually offers the areas next
chances for wider spread rainfall as well as at least a brief return
towards late fall temperatures.

marine...

northwest flow holds for most of the day in the wake of a cold
front. the cold air advection taking place behind the cold front
will elevated mixing depths, allowing stronger air aloft to mix down
which will sustain gusts ranging around 20 to 25 knots across lake
huron through the morning. localized gust potential up to 40 knots
will be possible across north and north-central lake huron where the
favorable fetch aligns. high pressure to then build in tonight and
into the weekend which will then bring a period of light winds. a
low pressure system will track across the plains early next week,
increasing chances for more active conditions across the great lakes
by the midweek period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.