Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
854 pm est sat jan 24 2026

.what has changed...
as snow, related to moist isentropic ascent aloft, continues to
overspread our region generally from southwest to northeast, it
is reaching the surface via the wet-bulb effect a bit faster
than expected previously. based on 00z/sun consensus of short-
term model guidance and the 00z/sun run of the hrrr, increased
pop`s and increased qpf slightly through daybreak sunday. as a
result, our storm-total snowfall forecast has increased by about
one inch cwa-wide. please see our winter storm warning text for
additional details.

&&

.key messages...
1) a major winter storm remains on track to impact the region late
tonight through early monday morning with widespread snowfall
impacting travel.

2) temperatures will drop below zero monday and tuesday morning
behind the low pressure system with wind chill values near -10f on
monday and below -20f on tuesday.

3) prolonged cold with occasional light snow is expected through the
end of next week creating elevated risks for cold exposure and
damage to infrastructure.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a low pressure system has began to take shape across the
southern conus that will deepen as it moves northeast into the
tennessee and ohio valleys through monday morning. precipitation
can be seen upstream over central illinois, and though there
may be some light returns moving into ohio this afternoon, the
dewpoints are far too low for any snow to reach the ground.
there`s quite a bit of dry air located in the low levels that
will slowly erode away this evening as better moisture advection
moves north into the region ahead of the low. this will create
overrunning moisture that will move atop of the very cold air
mass already in place of the region and the column will saturate
efficiently. the onset of precipitation has continued to trend
slower over the past few model runs due the aforementioned
abundance of low level dry air. currently, not expecting
snowfall to reach the ground in the western counties until just
before midnight if not after. the further east in the cwa, the
onset will be pushed until the early morning hours of sunday
around 2-3am with northwestern pennsylvania being the last hold
out. once snow begins, there`s not much that will stop it until
the low moves off the east coast early monday morning.

as for snowfall amounts, as mentioned above, the qpf for the event
have been increasing with the past few model runs showing stronger
moisture advection once the system gets going. qpf for the time
period from tonight through monday night has increased to around
0.50-0.75" with the largest increase seen in an area from mt. vernon
up through youngstown. relating this to snowfall totals, those have
increased close to an inch across the board with the same area
mentioned above seeing close to a foot of snow when it`s all said in
done. snowfall totals will decrease further north and west in the
cwa, though much of the region from findley to sandusky eastward,
will be seeing 9-11" and 6-9" for areas west of that to include
toledo. probabilistic snowfall totals of over 12" have been
increasing the past couple of days as well, up to 70-85% across the
southeast portion of the cwa and above 60% for areas starting east
of findley. for areas northwest of findley, to include toledo and
bowling green, probabilities of 12" or more are much less, if not
zero. though, for receiving over 8" they range from 60% near toledo
up to 85% just northwest of findley.

after the low departs to the northeast, there will be some minimal
snowfall accumulations across northeastern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania due to cold air moving across lake erie and upsloping.
though drier air will move in quickly as a high pressure builds just
south of the region and will cut off any remaining snow showers.
another factor for these lake enhanced snow showers is that lake
erie may be completely frozen over at that point which will limit
the lake effect. though, there still could be some cracks in the ice
due to shifting with the winds that will allow for snow showers to
form.

key message 2...
high pressure will move in behind the departing low pressure
system and temperatures will begin to drop starting late sunday
night. with the new snow pack across the region and the strong
arctic high pressure and eventual clearing skies, temperatures
will be able to drop down to dangerous levels. for monday
morning, the high will still be moving in so temperatures will
still be in the single digits across the region with wind chill
values ranging from -10f out west to just below zero out east.
tuesday will be colder with the high completely built in and and
approaching low pressure system from the north creating a
stronger pressure gradient and increasing winds. low
temperatures for tuesday morning will drop down below zero for
the entire region with some interior areas seeing -10f. with the
winds gusting upwards of 20mph, wind chills will be down to
-15f to -20f with areas from us route 30 southward seeing wind
chills near -25f. a cold weather headline will be needed from
late monday night through mid-morning tuesday.

key message 3...
prolonged cold weather is expected through the end of the week
as arctic air will stay situated over the region. little air
mass modifications are expected as well during this time frame,
with only a couple of troughs moving through during the week.
another arctic high pressure will build in just west of the
great lakes later in the week with north to northwesterly flow
across the area reinforcing the frigid temperatures. with fairly
high confidence, temperatures across the region are not
expected to get above 20 degrees during this forecast period.
high temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees with lows near or
below zero. winds chills will be down near -10f to -15f most
mornings. this extended cold stretch will cause elevated risk of
cold exposure for people and potential damage to infrastructure.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
at the surface, a low will strengthen gradually while wobbling
ne`ward from near the northwestern gulf coast to near the upper
oh valley between 23:50z/sat and 00z/mon. simultaneously, the
low will extend a trough into our region. our regional surface
winds, near 5 to 15 knots, will back gradually from e`erly to
n`erly. periodic gusts up to 20 knots are expected after
~12z/sun, especially west of the longitude of kcle.

at 23:50z/sat, widespread ceilings near 7kft to 10kft agl were
present over northern oh and nw pa. these ceilings will lower
gradually to the mvfr range and generally from southwest to
northeast through ~10z/sun. widespread mvfr ceilings then
persist through 00z/mon. widespread light to moderate snow,
associated with the aforementioned low pressure system, will
overspread our region slowly and generally from southwest to
northeast through ~09z/sun and then persist through 00z/mon.
visibility will range between mvfr and lifr in the light to
moderate snow. periods of heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibility
are expected, especially after ~12z/sun.

outlook...widespread snow with non-vfr continues sunday evening
before ending generally from west to east overnight sunday
night into monday morning. during the rest of monday through
thursday, additional periods of snow with non-vfr are possible,
especially in ne oh and nw pa, where periodic lake-effect snow
is possible downwind of mainly ice-covered lake erie.

&&

.marine...
lake erie is mostly ice-covered and the ice will continue to
expand and thicken through next week as several bouts of cold
air impact the region. stronger southwest winds on tuesday may
break up and shift the ice northeastward away from the
southwestern shoreline of lake erie.

east-northeast winds of 10-15kt are expected tonight into
sunday, increasing to 15-20kt and shifting more northerly sunday
afternoon and evening. winds remain 15-20kt through monday while
gradually backing to a more westerly direction. winds shift
southwest and increase to 20-30kt monday night and tuesday.
winds shift west-southwest tuesday night into wednesday and
gradually subside to 10-15kt.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm warning until 7 am est monday for ohz003-006>008-
017.
winter storm warning until 10 am est monday for ohz009>014-
018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...winter storm warning until 1 pm est monday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/23
aviation...jaszka
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
816 pm est sat jan 24 2026

.key messages...
- a winter storm warning and winter weather advisory is in
effect for various counties. snow begins tonight, lasting
through sunday. snow ends sunday night.

- in the warning area, snow greater than 6 inches is expected.
hazardous travel may persist into monday morning.

- lake effect snow develops monday morning.

-dangerous cold yet again tuesday morning with wind chills near
20 below zero.

&&

.update...
issued at 815 pm est sat jan 24 2026

development of southerly flow level flow cutting across strong
baroclinic zone across will continue to provide focus of some
low level and mid level lift through the night. some very dry
low levels had to be dislodged this evening, so this advective
forcing will take some time to generate measurable snow across
the far north/northeast portions of the area. across in/oh did
speed up timing of pops a bit given observational trends and
even a few reports of a tenth of an inch of snow already this
evening.

no big changes made at this time regarding forecast late tonight
into sunday, but will have to monitor evolution of the initial
upstream mid level trough that will be tracking across the
region through sunday afternoon. some latest guidance may be
trending a little sharper with this trough, and thus maintaining
some modest low/mid level baroclinicity for a slightly longer
time across ne in/nw ohio. a slightly sharper trough also
appears to hold some low level advective forcing in a bit longer
across southeast half of the forecast area. given a trend to
slightly stronger synoptic forcing signal in the 12z-21z
timeframe, some concern that warning level accums could nudge a
bit farther northwest into portions of the current advisory
area. confidence still not high to make a headline change at
this time however, with still some lower confidence regarding
exact snow ratios and the amplitude/timing of the initial mid
level trough. this also appears to be a steady type accumulation
over a rather extended period which may mitigate impact
somewhat. if any more pronounced banding can develop for a
short time, this potential appears to be maximized across the
warning area in far ne in/nw oh. did slightly nudge up snow
accums in the intermediate area between warning/advisory
segments, but otherwise no major changes planned at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 224 pm est sat jan 24 2026

overall, no significant changes to the incoming winter storm.

a wintry weekend is underway or imminent for much of the us. low
pressure over the tx/la gulf coast slowly lifts north this evening
with a modest precipitation shield extending into the mid-
mississippi valley where arctic high pressure has a grip over the
midwest. this high pressure limits poleward moisture transport this
evening with its strong subsidence and bone-dry air mass (dew points
in the 10s-to-teens below-zero). forecast soundings do show
saturation occuring prior to midnight et for those along and south
of us 24 allowing for about 1-2" by daybreak sunday; armchair
meteorologists may scoff sunday morning about the lack of snow but
more is on the way.

our primary period of prolonged, steady snowfall is during the day
sunday and tapering off after sunset. this is when a second, more
potent low currently digging in over the baja of california lifts
northeast through the tennessee river valley. by this time, high
pressure will have shifted northeast allowing for improved moisture
profile locally, but still cannot rule out being "robbed" of some
moisture transport with such a large precipitation shield across the
s southeast us. the 12z suite of forecast guidance generally stayed
close to the existing forecast. there were some northward shifts in
cams (as well as the nam). balancing the dry air mass, subtle
northward shift of some guidance and reducing snow ratios a touch,
we`ve generally held course with this afternoon`s forecast package.

in coordination with neighboring offices, we did reduce the
inherited 20:1 snow ratios (now capped at (17:1); likely over-
boosted by the very cold air mass. indeed, the 15k ft deep dendritic
growth zone is impressive, but overall forcing in the column is
modest as revealed by time-height cross sections. nonetheless, a
fluffy snow and a brief period 1" per hour rates. these rates are
most likely around sunrise sunday morning as an area of mid-level
frontogenesis passes overhead. wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph will
result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with easterly wind at
the start of the evening "backing" (counter-clockwise) to become
westerly by the snow`s end.

a single band of lake effect develops sunday night as this surface
low becomes centered off the new england coast. the band tracks from
the western lake michigan shore to the east which will limit
residence time but 1" per hour rates are expected as the band swings
through. depending on its residence time for the monday morning
commute, additional winter weather headlines may be needed for
michiana.

dangerous cold returns monday night (did it ever really leave?) with
-22c noted at 850 mb, good for apparent temperatures tuesday
morning near 20-below zero. temperatures attempt to moderate
after but are limited by an incoming clipper midweek. thus,
cold with lake effect snow is in store for the week ahead.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 635 pm est sat jan 24 2026

onset of broad warm/moist advection is gradually improving deep
column saturation. the initial airmass across northern indiana
is quite dry, so this saturation has taken some time. however,
over past hour or two, starting to see more numerous reports of
snow flurries and some light snow south of us route 24.
expecting this slow increase in intensity to continue through
remainder of the evening with some light snow accumulations of a
tenth or two expected at kfwa by the 02z or 03z timeframe.
conditions should deteriorate with ifr vsbys from south to
north late evening/overnight, with a potential of periods of
vsbys under 1 mile at kfwa. further deterioration is expected
during the day sunday as lead mid level trough emerges from the
mid ms rvr valley allowing for a more coherent low/mid level
front to shift across northeast indiana. it still appears as
though greatest snowfall rates are expected in the 12z-21z
timeframe with some light snow continuing into sunday evening as
lagging second upper trough drops across the southern great
lakes. expecting vsbys to be in lifr category for most of the
day on sunday at terminals. system snow pulls out sunday evening
but will be replaced by increased potential of lake effect snow
showers at ksbn during the overnight hours sunday night/early
monday morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday
for inz005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 am est monday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
655 pm est sat jan 24 2026

.key messages...

- light snow will gradually overspread areas south of m-59 late
tonight, with any accumulations by day break less than 1 inch.

- winter weather advisory in effect for locations along and south of
m-59 tomorrow and tomorrow evening, with a winter storm warning for
monroe county.

- very cold conditions continue next week with wind chills
occasionally dipping to 10 to 15 below zero.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions under overcast mid-high clouds will prevail through
the remainder of the evening with light ene to ese winds. conditions
will begin to slowly deteriorate after 05z tonight as snowfall
spreads across the southern metro terminals drawing further north
with time sunday morning reaching mbs by mid-late morning. a few
hours of vfr light snowfall will precede the arrival of mvfr cigs and
vsbys before the main event unfolds across southeast michigan
terminals between 12z and 00z. snowfall will bring solid ifr to lifr
conditions to the detroit terminals by 18z that last through the
afternoon and reach up to fnt as well. the heaviest snow will reside
across dtw airspace with up to 4 to 6 inches of accumulation and 1
to 3 inches up to fnt. winds to around 10 knots will slow back from
the east to the north as the low pressure system passes south of the
state. heavier snow will begin to taper off towards the end of this
taf period.

for dtw...main window for accumulating snowfall will be focused
between 11z sunday morning to 01z sunday evening with peak snowfall
rates of a quarter to a half inch per hour between 18z and 23z. ifr
conditions are expected with intervals of lifr possible during the
peak of snowfall rates. snow accumulations most likely in the 4 to 6
inch range with lower probability to exceed 6 inches.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet sunday after 09z.

* high in precipitation type of snow.

* medium in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2sm in falling
snow after 18z sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 310 pm est sat jan 24 2026

discussion...

temperatures climbed out of the deep cold hole this morning and have
risen into the single numbers this afternoon. with very light winds,
very low dew pts, and lingering surface ridging, radiational cooling
could allow for a brief dip below back below zero this evening
(across the normally colder sites) before clouds thicken up
sufficiently.

the 12z euro came in reasonably close to its 00z run; thus, the
previous updated discussion and thoughts remain intact, and no
adjustments to headlines/amounts will be made. to recap: total
forecasted snowfall amounts, 5-8 inch for monroe, 4-7 inches for
lenawee, washtenaw, and wayne counties, and 2-4 inches (with isolated
5-inch amounts) along the m-59 corridor counties.

the southern wave is just now moving into mexico, and does not reach
western ohio until late sunday. this forcing will support our best
snowfall rates sunday afternoon, as specific humidity in the 850-700
mb layer peaks just above 2 g/kg over monroe county and far southern
wayne/washtenaw counties. with the 850-700 mb circulation tracking
through northwest ohio into western lake erie and forecast soundings
indicating saturation/forcing hanging around in the -10 to -12 c
layer, snow to liquid ratios will average less than 20:1. also, with
the long-duration light snow developing late tonight and continuing
sunday morning, some modest compaction/snow settling needs to be
accounted for, unlike most model total snowfall forecasts.

the good news is this wave is fast moving and snowfall should
diminish fairly fast sunday evening. although, some lake huron
enhancement may prolong activity snow showers into sunday night
across eastern areas, extensive ice over southern lake huron and low
level winds backing quickly should help limit intensity and duration
of bands potentially impacting the eastern thumb region.

continued cold next week, as the next clipper system/re-enforcing
shot of cold air (850 mb temps in the negative lower 20s) arrives on
tuesday. snow showers associated with the arctic front brings the
potential of a dusting to 2 inches of snow accumulation.

another shortwave and even colder shot is progged to arrive
wednesday night, per 12z euro. wind chills thursday morning have a
good chance to reach -15 f as 850 mb temps drop to around -25 c and
sustained winds hang around 15 mph. otherwise, friday night could
see advisory type wind chills as winds look to stay up.

marine...

lighter winds persist through the day as a strong high pressure
system over the great lakes departs into the continental northeast
and into quebec. light snow to then expand from lake erie up through
southern lake huron overnight as an expansive low pressure winter
storm system moves through the appalachia region. embedded lake
effect snow bands will likely through central and southern lake
huron sunday into monday. cold air is reinforced within the wake of
this low across the great lakes early next week, which will bring
the return of elevated wind gusts through the midweek period.

climate...

flint set a record low today (-24 degrees), and was just 1 degree
away from tying the all time record low temp of 25 degrees (set in
jan 18 1976 and feb 20 2015).

the record low min temps for today, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -24 degrees (set in 2026)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for today, january 24th (flint and
saginaw still have not risen above these values today, as of 3 pm).

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 9 am sunday to midnight est sunday
night for miz063-068>070.

winter weather advisory from 5 am sunday to midnight est sunday
night for miz075-076-082.

winter storm warning from 5 am sunday to midnight est sunday night
for miz083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sf
marine.......am
climate......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.