Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
936 pm est wed jan 21 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes but confidence in accumulating snow later this
weekend increases along with below zero temperatures friday
night and saturday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) a mix of rain, snow, and graupel will move through the area,
bringing slippery road conditions tonight and additional snow
accumulation to ne oh and nw pa.

2) early thursday night cold front brings a significant airmass
change with prolonged cold conditions to the cwa through early next
week.

3) accumulating snow potential for the weekend is gaining confidence
as a major winter storm system track keeps trending gradually
northward.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

a cold front is moving across the forecast area late this
evening, bringing a mix of snow, graupel, and rain to the area.
the accumulation of mixed precipitation on surfaces around
freezing will allow for some slippery road conditions over the
next several hours, especially on elevated surfaces. have a
special weather statement for northeast ohio to account for
ongoing and anticipated impacts and updated pops with a quick
update to show timing of precipitation through 18z thu.
additional snow accumulations will continue in nw pa and will be
maintaining the advisory for erie and crawford counties in pa.

key message 2...

the third in line of a succession of cold fronts will be the one
that changes the airmass back to well below normal conditions in
terms of temperatures for several days. 850mb temperatures plummet
into the mid -20s celsius with a 1044mb high pressure system moving
into the great lakes. temperatures begin their sharp drop thursday
night after frontal passage with friday temperatures likely falling
through the afternoon into the single digits. with high pressure
over the region, only cirrus clouds will prevent the most efficient
radiational cooling conditions friday night as winds go nearly calm
by saturday morning. some snow left on the ground will provide the
assist for temperatures dropping below zero by saturday morning,
even near the lakeshore where a primarily frozen lake erie will no
longer be able to keep those areas significantly warmer. saturday
temperatures likely in the 5-10f range cwa-wide, but then slight
improvement into sunday with a winter storm system but a northward
push of slightly modified conditions compared to the previous couple
of days where 20f may be achievable. back into the teens monday and
tuesday with lows consistently in the single digits from saturday
night through monday night. monday night could drop back below zero
once again in the outlying areas with a fresh snowpack expected.


key message 3...

all eyes on a major winter storm that will develop over the southern
tier of states friday into saturday, and affect our area saturday
night through roughly early monday. the long and short of it is
operational long term models keep trying to trend it fruitier
northward than previous runs, but not yet in any sort of full
agreement, and there will be an important player for the southern
great lakes in the form of a northern stream upper level trough
dropping in from the canadian prairie region. not going to get too
specific into anything just yet in terms of snowfall amounts or
timing as the pieces continue to come together. arctic air already
in place keeps all precipitation snow for the cwa, but with a
northward trend, the max temperatures for sunday may go from 15-20f
to more like 20-25f, but will need to keep watching this. the
orientation of the upper level trough and the timing of it and
whether or not it will phase with the surface low that will move
northeastward from the gulf coast to the western side of the
appalachians will be a significant aspect of this forecast. if it
does so, this will lead to a higher confidence in higher snow
amounts for the region, and if not, the surface low will likely fill
fairly quickly in the upper ohio valley as the system transitions to
a coastal low dominant scenario, still some snow, but not as much.
it is important to note that the long range ensembles remain
conservative with snow amounts for now. regardless, as mentioned
above, more cold air behind this winter storm system for early next
week.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
a mix of vfr and mvfr conditions will continue across the region
this evening as a cold front moves through and allows for snow
showers to pick up across ne oh and nw pa. there will be a
better push of snow through 06z in some of the terminals and
there could be some brief ifr conditions, primarily keri, but a
non-zero chance at kcle and kyng. a broader push of mvfr
ceilings will build in behind this front tonight with most
terminals getting ceilings below 3000 ft. high pressure will
build in on thursday and allow for ceilings to scatter out from
southwest to northeast. winds will start south ahead of the cold
front and veer to the southwest then west with the frontal
passage. wind gusts of 20 to 30 kts will be expected through
thursday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lake effect snow showers in
ne oh and nw pa through friday. non-vfr possible late saturday
through early monday in widespread snow showers.

&&

.marine...
as of early this morning, satellite passes show that lake erie is
mostly ice covered outside of a portion of the eastern basin in the
open waters from conneaut eastward. there has been southerly to
southwesterly flow throughout the day today and along with warming
temperatures just above freezing that may cause any ice not fasten
against the nearshore to drift into the open waters. winds across
the lake will be gusting from 15-25 knots out of the southwest
through this evening and will increase overnight approaching gales
in the central and eastern basins. winds will begin to subside from
west to east thursday evening back down to 15-25 knots with winds
near 30 knots across the far eastern portion of the lake. with the
strong winds, there is potential that the water levels near toledo
could drop down near critical levels. will need to monitor
overnight tonight through thursday. wave heights in the open waters
and ice free zones will be rough building to near 9 feet on thursday
before subsiding through friday into saturday down to less than 2
feet.

starting this weekend, a strong, arctic high pressure system will
move across the region and winds will be 10-15 knots through monday
afternoon. winds will increase again as a low pressure system moves
to the south of the lakes and winds will shift from being out of the
east on sunday, to out of the west by monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 am est thursday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26/sefcovic
aviation...sefcovic
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 pm est wed jan 21 2026

.key messages...
- a very active week with opportunties for snow and the coldest
air of the season is ahead.

- a parade of arctic cold fronts will move through in the coming
days, bringing reinforcing shots of cold air and opportunties
for lake effect snow through friday.

- bitterly cold arctic air arrives thursday night and lasts
through the weekend. daytime highs on friday and saturday
will struggle to make it out of the single digits.

- expect a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills friday
morning through sunday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 229 pm est wed jan 21 2026

the first arctic cold front of the week is currently draped just to
the west of our area in northern illinois. ahead of this system,
there were a few snow showers this morning but those have since
dissipated. with brief waa today, temperatures have risen into
the low to mid 30s in most locations as of the early afternoon.
enjoy it because this will be the first and only day above
freezing for awhile!

another clipper system will move through tonight ahead of our second
arctic cold front, but it will have to overcome dry air in able to
produce any snow. there will be lift in the dgz, although moisture
is limited and disjointed so unsure if this system will produce
anything more than just light snow showers. some hi res model
guidance was previously depicting bursts of snow with gusty winds
tonight that may have snow squall-esque characteristics. i
think potential for this will be rather limited, especially
south of us 3 where there is more dry air. some lake enhancement
may be possible around lake michigan where around 1" of
accumulation is possible, but generally thinking no more than
0.5" of snow for the rest of the area tonight through daybreak
thursday. despite the uncertainty in snow, winds will definitely
be gusty overnight and on thursday morning! with the arctic
frontal passage, winds out of the west could gust as high as 30
to 40 mph. in areas that do get any snow, this will lower
visibilities and allow for some blowing snow potential. behind
the frontal passage thursday morning, conditions stay dry until
lake effect snow chances increase during the evening and into
friday morning. away from lake michigan, high pressure briefly
builds across the mid mississippi valley on thursday. i`d expect
much of the area will stay dry through friday outside of the
primary sw lower michigan and nw indiana snowbelts. highs
thursday will be cooler in the 20s.

the most significant weather of the next 7 days will be the bitterly
cold air that intrudes starting thursday night and lasts all the way
through the weekend. as a strong 1050mb+ arctic high pressure builds
across the central conus, arctic air spills into the midwest and
great lakes. we have high confidence in a prolonged period of sub-
zero wind chills from friday morning through sunday morning. actual
air temperatures will be in the teens thursday night, falling
throughout the day friday as our third cold front of the week moves
through. this arctic cold front will result in breezy west/northwest
winds thursday night; gusts of up to 30 to 40 mph will allow for
wind chills to drop to dangerously cold thresholds. wind chills will
be as cold as -15 to -23 on friday morning. it is going to be
dangerously cold at times; i did consider issuing an extreme cold
watch in nw indiana on this shift but wind chill values are just
slightly above the threshold for that (-25f). will let the
overnight shift take a closer look at temps and winds to
determine when and where headlines will be needed. behind that
front, lows will be 5 to 10 degrees below zero friday night and
highs rebound only into the single digits for saturday.
additional cold weather headlines will likely be needed into the
day friday and extending into the weekend as well.

we are also keeping an eye on the significant winter storm expected
to impact the southern us. as this system gets suppressed south
of our area on friday by the aforementioned strong arctic high,
questions remain with the exact location and strength of the
high pressure. there is a possibility that as the winter storm
lifts north (how far north? lots of uncertainty there), our area
may see potential for accumulating snow on the backside of this
impressive system. there has been a lot of chatter online and
on social media about differences and possible trends in the
euro and gfs model runs. with that weekend winter storm system
still developing in the pacific, it is too early to say for our
area whether any model runs that bring the system the northward
are a true trend or just a flip flop in model runs. for now,
have kept with the nbm pops for the weekend, which have 30-60%
chances for snow. an opportunity exists for accumulating snow
saturday night into sunday, especially south of us 30. however,
the best chances for snow and related travel impacts will be
south of our area into the ohio river valley. it is still too
early to discuss amounts, timing, and exact track of the system
into our area. stay tuned for future forecast updates!

into early next week, an active pattern remains with persistent
northwest flow, chances for snow, and below normal temperatures.
highs in the teens and lows in the single digits likely continue
into the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 640 pm est wed jan 21 2026

another weak disturbance will move through overnight bringing
lowered mvfr cigs and light snow mainly for ksbn from 03-09z
thu, however a few light snow showers may make it to the ground
at kfwa around 05-09z thu. gusty southwesterly winds will
accompany this disturbance passage and gusts up to 35 knots will
be possible some low level wind shear will also be possible
mainly for kfwa. vfr conditions return after 15-18z thu.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning until 7 am est thursday for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning from 1 am thursday to 1 am est
saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
655 pm est wed jan 21 2026

.key messages...

- chance of snow showers tonight with additional accumulations up to
an inch for most areas. areas along/between the m-59 and i-69
corridors could see heavier snow showers resulting in locally higher
amounts towards 2 inches.

- flurries or light lake effect snow showers daytime thursday. an
arctic cold frontal passage in the evening brings wider spread snow
showers with accumulations up to an inch.

- an extreme cold watch is in effect late thursday night through
saturday morning due to dangerously cold conditions. minimum wind
chills below -15f expected both friday and saturday mornings.

&&

.aviation...

a pocket of dry air within southwest flow is resulting in an area of
vfr ceilings across the southern metro terminals while mvfr ceilings
reside across ptk and points north. a quick passing clipper system
and associated cold front will them move through southeast michigan
bringing another round of widespread light accumulating snowfall
tonight and lower ceilings. lake michigan has been activated along
the lead frontal boundary bringing light lake effect snow showers
across much of the area to start this taf period. the trailing wave
now approaching southern lake michigan will move in tonight roughly
between 05z to 09z bringing a period of high variability in cigs and
vsbys. expecting conditions to drop to mostly mvfr/ifr vsbys under
the heavier snow showers during that time. west winds and cold
advection will keep lake michigan activated and maintain low vfr/mvfr
ceilings with light lake effect snow showers tomorrow morning and
afternoon.

for dtw...another round of accumulating snow expected between 05z
and 09z tonight. accumulations of a dusting to an inch is most
likely. closer to 2 inches will be possible if a more intense band
sets up over dtw.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening. high after 05z
through thursday morning.

* high for precip type as snow through the taf period.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 pm est wed jan 21 2026

discussion...

following the scattered light snow showers/flurries in the north
this evening, a secondary shortwave/cold front is set to sweep
through southern lower mi tonight. stronger frontal boundary affords
both better coverage, relative to evening, and intensities for snow
showers between midnight and 5am. heaviest snow showers, including
potential squalls, expected along/between the m-59 and i-69
corridors where the parent vort max crosses enhancing local f-gen
response along the frontal circulation. most areas see between 0.5-
1" of new snowfall tied to this wave, however, areas under the area
favored for stronger f-gen have potential to see locally higher
totals up to 2" especially if a more w-e component of the
orientation develops- like what is seen in the hrrr and to an extent
arw.

colder air, 850mb falling to -18c, settles over lower mi by thursday
morning kicking off the typical lake response. that said, the
arrival of another clipper over the northern great lakes daytime
thursday causes the lower level wind field to shift from wnw back to
wsw hampering continuity in bands and overall limiting activity over
se mi to more flurries or brief light snow showers with minimal
accumulation. a bit better accumulation potential comes thursday
evening when the associated arctic front is driven across the state.
this boundary provides a focal point for the release of lake
moisture east over our area supporting a healthier coverage of snow
showers and a few embedded snow squalls capable of a quick half to
one inch of new snow.

coldest air of the winter thus far follows the front as 850mb temps
bottom out near -30c. cold advection through the day friday
maintains blustery winds with gusts 20-30mph throughout the day.
resultant wind chills friday morning reach well into the negative
teens to 20 below with little if any improvement during the daylight
hours as actual temperatures remain in the single digits for most
areas. strong arctic high pressure establishes itself over the
central great lakes by saturday bringing calmer winds though no
thermal recovery. in fact, the high promotes clearer skies friday
night allowing overnight low actual temperatures to fall below 0
towards -10f. in coordination with neighboring offices, an extreme
cold watch is in effect from thursday night through saturday morning
due to the potential for wind chills to reach 25 below zero. ridge
axis crosses se mi by the latter half of saturday offering a
marginal improvement in temperatures with highs back into the teens
and lows in the positive single digits for sunday and monday. will
need to keep an eye on a broad southern conus winter storm as a
portion of ensemble and deterministic guidance favor a more
northerly track at least partially clipping southern lower mi. this
northward shift in track is reflected in the latest nbm extended
pops which increased this cycle to 40-50%.

marine...

for the remainder of today, a low pressure system will travel from
the northern great lakes into quebec by tomorrow morning. this will
sustain light snow for portions of the northern great lakes and will
veer wind direction from southwest to west. the continued departure
of the low pressure system will push a very strong arctic cold front
across the great lakes through thursday and friday which will bring
the continuation of active weather and breezy conditions.

the combination of the strengthening pressure gradient and strong
over lake instability will support sustained winds around 25 knots
with gust potential around 30 to 35 knots. the signal for prolonged
gales remains borderline at this time with highest probability of
achievement located across southern and central lake huron tomorrow
evening to friday morning. will preclude any gale products noting
the possibility for a short-fused upgrade if model trends increase
leading into the evening. a heavy freezing spray warning has been
issued given the intrusion of arctic temperatures and sustained
elevated winds.

snow squalls will be likely thursday and friday, especially across
central and northern lake huron where surface convergence is
enhanced. expect rapid reductions to visibility within any squall. a
very strong high pressure system to then settle across the great
lakes this weekend which will maintain arctic temperatures but will
allow wind speeds to rapidly diminish.

climate...

the record low max temps for friday, january 23rd.

detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1883)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1959)
saginaw: 3 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low min temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: -13 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: -13 degrees (set in 1963)

the record low max temps for saturday, january 24th.

detroit: 4 degrees (set in 1963)
flint: 5 degrees (set in 1963)
saginaw: 8 degrees (set in 1961)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme cold watch from late thursday night through saturday
morning for miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning from 6 am thursday to 6 am est
saturday for lhz361>363-462>464.

gale warning from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for lhz363-
462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......am
climate......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.