Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1218 am est fri feb 6 2026

.what has changed...
an extreme cold watch warning has been issued for northwest
pennsylvania friday night into saturday morning with wind
chills of -25 to -30 degrees. a cold weather advisory has been
issued for northern ohio friday night into saturday morning with
wind chills of -15 to -24 degrees. widespread accumulating
snow, heavy at times, is expected affect our entire region
tonight through friday evening. a winter weather advisory was
issued for geauga and erie, pa, which is where the best
potential for 3 to 5 inches of snowfall. there is some potential
for the advisory to expanded to other parts of the snowbelt in
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.key messages...
1.) light, accumulating snow may produce minor travel impacts
areawide late tonight through early friday afternoon. a cold
front will swing through friday evening, producing snow squalls,
strong gusty winds, and patchy to areas of blowing snow.

2.)dangerous cold temperatures and wind chills are expected
areawide friday night through sunday morning.

3.) temperatures should rebound to near normal values by the
middle of next week ahead of the next potential weather system,
which may bring a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
snow, gusty winds, and blowing snow:
a weak shortwave is currently tracking trough the lower great
lakes and into the upper ohio valley this evening. there is also
a warm front stretched from north to south over the western and
central great lakes region that will move through our area
tonight. short term forecast guidance indicates that the areas
of light to pockets of moderate snow just west of our area
should gradually decrease in coverage as it advances eastward
tonight. we have mentioned chance pops for light snow this
evening and overnight for mainly areas along and north of the
highway 30 corridor. a light dusting of snowfall up to half an
inch is possible overnight with this round of light snow.

the next round of snow will arrive friday morning and could
impact some of the morning commute. there is a slightly stronger
shortwave currently north of minnesota that will quickly track
southeastward into our area by friday morning. this weather
system is ahead of the arctic front that will arrive late friday
afternoon/evening. the shortwave system friday morning will
bring areas of widespread light to pockets of moderate snow to
the area. the timing of the round of snow for friday morning
will be between 7am and 1 pm.

there may be a lull in the light snow friday afternoon. then,
the arctic front will sweep through the area starting late
friday afternoon into the early evening. the latest 12z and 18z
hi-res forecast model guidance shows the arctic front arriving
in nwoh and around the toledo area around 4 pm and 6 pm. the
front will arrive in the cleveland area between 5 pm and 7 pm
and the erie, akron, canton, youngstown area between 6 pm and 8
pm. the guidance shows the potential for a broken line of
heavier snow showers or possible snow squalls along the passage
of the arctic front friday evening which may impact the evening
commute. the impacts for friday evening`s commute could include
brief bursts of heavier snow, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and
visibility dropping to less than 1 mile. behind the arctic
front, lake effect snow showers will be likely friday evening
gradually tapering off into early saturday morning for the
primary and secondary snowbelt. some lake effect snow squalls
will be possible for a short time period later friday evening.
total snowfall expected from tonight through early saturday
morning will be 1 to 2 inches for northwest ohio. 1 to 3 inches
of snowfall for areas closer to central ohio. for most of the
snowbelt 2 to 4 inches of snowfall is expected. there is a
winter weather advisory for inland erie county pa, geauga and
cuyahoga counties for total snowfall of 3 to 5 inches.

key message 2...
dangerous cold weather:
an arctic front will bring another blast of dangerous cold
weather friday night through early sunday morning. overnight low
temperatures friday night into saturday morning will drop down
between 5f and -5f. gusty northwest winds 15 to 25 mph will
cause wind chill values to drop between -15f to -25f. an extreme
cold warning has been issued friday night into saturday morning
for nwpa with expected wind chill below -25f. a cold weather
advisory has been issued friday night into saturday morning for
northern ohio with expected wind chill between -15f and -24f.

high temperatures on saturday will only reach into the single
digits to lower teens. wind chill values saturday afternoon will
stay mostly sub-zero. overnight low temperatures will drop again
between 3f to -8f saturday night into early sunday morning. the
wind chill values will drop back to -5f to -15f. additional cold
weather advisories may be needed for parts of neoh and nwpa
saturday night into sunday morning. high temperatures on sunday
will start to climb upward into the middle teens to around 20
degrees. it will be another frigid night sunday night down in
the single digits to lower teens.

key message 3...
near normal temperatures return next week:
the forecast model guidance shows a return to near normal or
seasonable average temperatures back in the forecast by the
middle of next week. the overall weather pattern will flatten
out and become somewhat zonal by the middle of next week. this
change of pattern will favor near normal temperatures back into
the 30s to low 40s for highs and overnight lows in the 20s.
there next weather system to potentially bring impacts to the
region may arrive late tuesday night through thursday. there is
quite a bit of uncertainty with the strengthen and track of the
system this far out because of the big change in the overall
weather pattern. we will mention in the forecast the potential
for a wintry mix and/or rain at this time during the middle of
next week. stay tuned!

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
a low pressure system is expected to move southeast across the
great lakes region through friday, bringing a multitude of
hazards, including low ceilings, low visibility with snow, snow
squalls, and strong wind gusts.

currently, most of the area is underneath overcast skies with
mid-level clouds, but as the system approaches, should see a
cloud deck with mvfr ceilings and light snow move in from the
northwest. initially, conditions will be variable in the 2-5 sm
and 1,500 to 5,000 ft tonight before becoming predominantly ifr
with ceilings varying in the 800 to 1,500 ft range and
visibilities in the 1 to 2 sm range through the friday morning
hours. it`s possible there will be a 1-3 hour period of moderate
snow producing visibilities down to about 1/2 sm at times,
especially towards the western portion of our forecast area
(i.e. ktol, kfdy, kmfd area). conditions should improve to
mostly mvfr by early-mid afternoon.

a strong cold front will swing through friday evening,
accompanied by snow showers/squalls that could briefly produce
visibilities as low as 1/2 sm at times. the best potential for
snow squalls and brief, moderate to heavy snow will be east and
south of i-71 after 23z friday. west to southwest winds of
around 10 knots preceding the front will sharply become northwest
and increase to gusts of 30 to 40 knots. even outside of any
snow showers, strong wind gusts could produce lower visibility
(mostly mvfr) due to blowing snow.

outlook...non-vfr with lake effect snow and clouds could
linger into saturday. light snow is possible on sunday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie continues to remain primarily ice covered, although
some cracks in the ice have been observed on satellite imagery,
especially across shipping channels. this ice is expected to
persist into the future, however there is a potential for some
shifting ice come friday night into saturday as a potent alberta
clipper brings a cold front east late friday. behind this cold
front, winds will shift to northwesterly and increase to gales
across the western and central basins, with 20-30 knots possible
in the eastern basin. as a result, a gale watch has been issued
for friday night. these strong winds have the potential to
shift ice and close the existing shipping channels in addition
to some compaction of ice along the shoreline. winds will
gradually calm throughout the day on saturday and then remain
that way into at least next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 1 am to noon est saturday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 1 am est
saturday for ohz011-013.
pa...winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 1 am est
saturday for paz002.
extreme cold warning from 1 am to noon est saturday for
paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from this evening through saturday morning for
lez142>148-162>168.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...saunders
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
654 pm est thu feb 5 2026

.key messages...

- light snow this evening will bring up to an inch of snow east
of interstate 69.

- patchy light freezing drizzle is possible before 4am edt
before a band of light snow moves across the area. one to two
inches of snow are forecast along and south of highway 24.

- additional light lake effect snow friday night will bring 1 to
2 inches across berrien and la porte counties.

- very cold wind chills down to 15 degrees below zero are
expected friday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 149 pm est thu feb 5 2026

focus remains on the next 24-36 hours with multiple chances for
precipitation in the forecast. surface observations currently show
light snow attempting to overcome dry air and filling across the
area as the first of two 500mb shortwaves sweeps through the area. a
dusting to up to 0.5" of snow accumulation is expected this
afternoon with this first round of snow. this evening and overnight,
with a lull in snow, freezing drizzle may develop. forecast
soundings using hi-res model guidance show a lack of cloud ice after
00z tonight, which lends to potential for freezing drizzle,
especially since low level stratus clouds are expected to persist
overnight. the rap shows favorable parameters for drizzle with 0-1km
rh > 90% and ceilings hovering around 1000 ft tonight. with this in
mind, have kept the mention of freezing drizzle in the forecast. hi-
res guidance (particularly the hrrr and nam) continue to show
potential for patchy light freezing drizzle ahead of the next round
of snow set to move through friday morning. confidence in area,
intensity, and impacts from freezing drizzle is low; if anything,
ice accumulations will likely be light with just a glaze to a tenth
or two possible.

however, confidence is increasing in a period of potentially
impactful snow around the morning commute timeframe for friday. a
second 500mb shortwave will bring a more potent round of snow to the
area by daybreak tomorrow. hi-res guidance has trended slightly
southward with the system in recent runs, bringing in more qpf and
thus more widespread snow to the area. this clipper system will dive
southeast through the area friday morning. with temperatures rising
to at or above freezing by late friday, this may limit snowfall
efficiency but may decrease the slr. what this means is the
snow that falls friday morning will likely have slrs closer to
normal (13:1) with additional moisture and milder temperatures.
overall accumulations of 1" are expected, with amounts up to 2"
possible along and south of us 24. there may be slick spots for
the morning commute but with southwest winds and a higher sun
angle, waa will likely limit higher accumulations as the day
progresses.

confidence is also increasing strong gusty northerly winds
developing friday afternoon and evening. the clipper system
bringing snow to the area friday morning is associated with a
deepening surface and attendant upper level low over the great
lakes. on the backside of this, a tightening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty winds to develop. with northerly low-level
winds and strong caa behind the clipper system, temperatures
fall friday evening and lake effect snow develops for northwest
indiana and southwest lower michigan friday afternoon into early
saturday. despite the shoreline of southern lake michigan being
mostly ice covered, the open waters are still unfrozen. with a
northerly fetch over lake michigan (and possible lake superior
connection), this is a favorable setup for lake effect. it is
still too early to determine exact amounts, but the best chances
for lake effect will likely be west of us-31. inversion heights
will be decent around 5-6 kft and there is good moisture and
lift within the dgz. some dry air may limit totals though and
there are limited theta-e lapse rates as friday progresses. with
the north fetch, lake effect snow amounts of 1-2" will likely
be highest in la porte and berrien counties.

an upper level ridge builds across the central conus over the
weekend, which will allow for lake effect to taper off saturday as
subsidence works in. bitter cold briefly returns with low as low as
the single digits friday night and saturday night. saturday`s highs
will only be in the teens. did want to note here that confidence is
low for low temperatures friday and saturday nights due to the
presence of lake effect clouds. in nw indiana where clouds likely
persist both nights, temperatures may only drop into the teens. away
from the lake, in locations that get clear skies, temperatures may
drop near zero. there will likely be a sharp gradient in low
temperatures across our forecast area both nights, which lends
itself to low confidence in temperatures at this time.

into next week, a warm up and possible thaw is on the way! while it
is too early to know just how mild temperatures will get, highs will
likely be above freezing for several days. normal highs this time of
the year are in the mid 30s; ensemble guidance has high temperatures
in upper 30s to low 40s by tuesday and wednesday. best chances for
highs above 40 will be along and south of us 24. we likely won`t
make a multi-day run of widespread highs in the 40s. there will be
increasing chances for precipitation by midweek; with above freezing
temperatures and ample waa, rain or freezing rain rather than snow
may be the dominant precipitation type(s). stay tuned!

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 613 pm est thu feb 5 2026

a fast moving clipper type of system will race southeast out of
the upper midwest and bring a brief round of light snow to
northern indiana including both taf sites. the ongoing timing of
the snow appears on track in a window from about 10z to 18z.
visibilities are expected to dip down to at least 1 mile during
this time. lingering light lake snow showers are likely to
persist through the end of the taf period, especially at the sbn
terminal.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1207 am est fri feb 6 2026

.key messages...

- occasional light snow through the morning, with total accumulations
of an inch or two. a chance for freezing drizzle exists tonight
but no significant impacts are anticipated.

- a few snow squalls are possible between noon and 5pm friday, as
northwest winds ramp up and gust 30-40 mph. temperatures reaching
or slightly exceeding freezing friday afternoon will plummet friday
evening and night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 f range saturday
morning.

- dangerous wind chills of around 15 to 20 degrees below zero are
likely saturday morning before a modest warming trend occurs over
the weekend.

- above normal temperatures are possible tuesday and wednesday of
next week.

&&

.aviation...

late evening observations indicate ifr ceiling slightly ahead of
schedule in a moisture laden boundary layer over lower mi. the mid
evening band of snow showers leaves behind a few hours of fog or
light freezing drizzle which quickly transitions back to snow during
the late night. coverage increases with enough intensity for ifr
visibility restriction mainly south of fnt toward sunrise through
mid morning. a component of more intense/lifr snow continues to show
signs of sliding south toward the ohio border early to mid morning.
the associated wave of low pressure then carries a frontal occlusion
west to east through lower mi followed closely by an arctic front
north to south expected to bring at least scattered coverage of
heavier snow showers/squalls. bursts of ifr visibility along the
front are followed by conditions quickly improving into vfr, but at
the cost of northerly wind gusting in the 30-40 kt range through the
afternoon and into friday evening.

for dtw... rounds of light snow are the weather highlights for the
dtw area late tonight through mid afternoon, punctuated by the
passage of an arctic front. flight conditions trend from mvfr to ifr
ceiling late tonight, ifr in the morning, and a quick improvement to
vfr in the afternoon as nw wind reaches gusts in the 30-40 kt range.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight through friday.

* high for wind exceeding crosswind threshold (320-340) friday
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 953 pm est thu feb 5 2026

update...

an impressive mid evening flare-up of snow showers is followed by
brief and patchy freezing drizzle toward and shortly after midnight.
dgz disruption is short-lived this far south and east as mid level
moisture is already catching up out ahead of the upper midwest short
wave that is on schedule to bring the next round of snow into lower
mi during the late night. most locations around se mi received about
a half inch of snow on top of which the patchy and brief freezing
drizzle has little additional effect before flurries or light snow
resumes. snow coverage then increases out ahead of the mid level
wave and will be ongoing during the morning commute but sub advisory
intensity otherwise. an early look at incoming 00z guidance
continues the trend of heavier snow showers associated with the
short wave grazing the ohio border region during early to mid
morning with a few pockets of heavier snow showers also developing
along the frontal occlusion as it sweeps west to east through lower
mi by noon.

prev discussion...
issued at 235 pm est thu feb 5 2026

a fairly messy forecast for the next 30 hours with as many as three
shortwave maxima and associated cyclonic circulations digging
southward in vicinity of lower michigan. adding to the complexity
are forecasted moisture profiles that are residing closer at the
margins with regards to depth of saturation into the dendritic
growth zone. trajectories and therefore incoming angle/approach of
the shortwaves and associate midlevel cyclonic circulations will
matter in the timing and duration of saturation. low confidence
exists in the precipitation forecast and uncertainty cascades from
there regarding potential impacts.

satellite imagery shows with broad initialization support that
differential cyclonic vorticity advection is occurring through all
of the area between 18-00z. no steep frontal feature to key in on,
rather shallowly sloped isentropic ascent between 10.0 and 15.0 kft
agl through 00z. surface temperatures creep upward into the lower
20s offering a better than normal accumulation efficiency. snow
accumulations of a dusting for most areas and up to a half inch in
the tri cities will be possible.

early tonight...500-400mb low pressure circulation will track near
the southern basin of lake huron between 00-03z this evening
effectively shunting deeper moisture to the east. forecast soundings
show midlevel dry air building downward to around 7.0 kft agl or to
approximately the -8c isotherm. questions arise to whether or not
ice nucleation will be able to persist during the early evening and
about the potential for freezing drizzle. lower column mean
saturation remains very high tonight, between 80-90%. did introduce
a chance for freezing drizzle in the forecast. little to no
confidence exists for any significant impacts if the freezing
drizzle does develop.

late tonight...the next vorticity maximum is progged to track from
minneapolis to northeast illinois by 12z friday morning but with a
midlevel low pressure circulation quite removed to the northeast
over lower michigan. this displacement of the low and the vort max
is causing all sorts of uncertainty within the model guidance. plan
view progs of moisture on isentropic surfaces supports an additional
period of midlevel moisture advection spilling to the northeast,
tracking with the midlevel low center through the northern cwa and
the thumb between 05-12z tonight. while model signal is not
overwhelmingly convincing, did increase 6 hourly forecasted snow to
around a few tenths to a half inch prior to 12z. confidence is low
in any widespread impacts to the friday morning commute. for
context, nbm 5.0 24 hour snow accumulations ending at 18z friday has
the 25th percentile at near 0.0 inches and the 75th percentile at
around 1.0 inch.

friday...lift from true differential vorticity advection will
largely remain to the south and west of lower michigan. will likely
see some light snow lingering from seeder feeder processes from the
i 96 corridor southward 12-14z. a lull is quite possible during the
midday period as some active subsidence works to dry the column
between 7.0-12.0 kft agl. the big forecast issue for the late friday
period will be the arrival/passage of arctic front north to south
between 17-22z. quite normal to wonder on potential snow squall
development with weak instability developing due to the shallow cold
front. at this time, the signal is not overly strong for a large
coverage. the reasoning is that convective depths and saturation
will be a struggle to extend upward into the dendritic growth zone.
additionally, northwest flow trajectories takes any moisture fluxing
off of a iced saginaw bay or lake huron off of the table. with all
of that stated, expecting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph which may cause
a blowing and drifting component to freshly falling snow so impacts
to travel and the evening commute may arise. given the lower
coverage, the thinking is short fused products may best handle the
messaging.

saturday morning...a cold weather advisory will likely be needed for
the morning hours with current forecasted winds holding 15 to 20
mph. forecasted wind chills are ranging 15 to 20 degrees below zero
which would result in dangerous conditions.

a slow warmup is anticipated to close out the weekend with a better
moderation of temperatures by tuesday and wednesday. temperatures in
the midweek timeframe could reach approximately 5 degrees above
normal.

marine...

low pressure tracking toward hudson bay leads to active marine
conditions through early saturday morning. current conditions are
governed by a leading upper level wave, which has generated light
snow across most of lake huron. organized southwest flow generally
between 15 to 20 knots is also ongoing. this low begins to occlude
friday morning, sending an arctic front across the great lakes
region mid-morning through early afternoon. winds become
northwesterly and quickly ramp up as mixing depths rapidly increase
in the wake of strong cold advection and an elevated low level jet.
upgraded the existing gale and heavy freezing spray watch to
warnings with this update. main question going forward is whether to
add in the far northern lake huron zone and outer saginaw bay, where
there is a mixed signal for stability due to the existing ice cover.
local probabilistic guidance is trending upward, so an expansion of
the warning may be necessary in subsequent updates. quieter
conditions arrive this weekend as high pressure fills in.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.

lake huron...gale warning from 1 pm to 10 pm est friday for lhz361.

heavy freezing spray warning from 1 pm friday to 4 am est saturday
for lhz361>363-462.

gale warning from 1 pm friday to 4 am est saturday for lhz362-363-
421-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
update.......bt
discussion...cb
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.