Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
624 am est tue feb 3 2026

.what has changed...
based on trends in higher-res nwp model data initialized at
00z/tue or more recently, increased pop`s along the expected cold
front passage late this morning through late this afternoon.
please see discussion-key message 2 for further details.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily below-normal temperatures are expected to persist
through monday, february 9th.

2) periods of accumulating snow are expected today and again
this thursday night through weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

net troughing aloft, associated with an abnormally-cold air
mass, remains entrenched over eastern canada. this trough will
impact at least most of the eastern united states through
monday, february 9th, including northern oh and nw pa. mainly
below-normal temperatures are expected to persist in our cwa.
for context, our normal highs are near 35f and normal lows are
near 20f this time of year. at the surface, a ridge continues to
exit toward the northeast united states before a weak cold
front sweeps se`ward through our region late this morning
through late afternoon. behind the front, another ridge builds
from the north-central united states and vicinity through
wednesday night. today`s highs are expected to reach the mid to
upper 20`s ahead of the cold front. amidst the low-level caa
regime behind the front, overnight lows are expected to reach
mainly the single digits above 0f around daybreak wednesday and
thursday, respectively, while daytime highs on wednesday should
reach the upper teens to lower 20`s.

the ridge should exit slowly e`ward thursday through thursday
night before an arctic front sweeps se`ward through our region
on friday. low-level waa on the backside of the ridge and ahead
of the front should contribute to daytime highs reaching the
20`s on thursday. lows near 10f to 15f thursday evening are
expected to moderate somewhat overnight amidst strengthening
low-level waa. friday`s highs should reach the upper 20`s to
mid 30`s before the arctic front passage. behind the front, an
arctic ridge and associated colder air temperatures should
affect our region through monday as the core of the ridge moves
from the northern great plains toward the upper oh valley and
vicinity. widespread sub-zero minimum wind chills should occur
this saturday through monday, respectively.

key message 2...

periods of mainly light snow are expected today due to the
following: weak moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave
trough axes embedded in w`erly flow aloft and the release of
at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km agl via
convergence/moist ascent along the above-mentioned cold front.
however, recent trends in higher-res nwp model data suggest the
forcing for ascent along the front will result in strong and
maximized ascent in a cloud layer about 1 km thick and
exhibiting temperatures of about -10c to -15c. thus, a narrow
band (i.e. brief burst) of steady to heavy snow may accompany
the front. in addition, a sufficiently-cold/moist low-level air
mass and the evolution of mean low-level flow should allow
limited lake-effect snow (les) to stream generally e`ward from
mainly ice-covered lake erie and impact far-ne oh and nw pa
ahead of the front. for several hours behind the front, limited
les should stream generally se`ward across nw pa and ne oh
before synoptic-scale low-level moisture plummets. additional
snow accumulations are expected to be one inch or less.

current odds favor dry weather tonight through thursday based
on the projected weather pattern evolution at the surface and
aloft mentioned in the previous key message section. during
thursday night through friday, additional widespread snow is
expected due to the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of
a se`ward-moving shortwave trough axis aloft and the release of
weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km agl via
convergence/moist ascent along the arctic front. this widespread
snowfall should total roughly one to four inches in our cwa.
greatest totals should be focused in the higher terrain of ne oh
and nw pa, where snow should be enhanced by moist nw`erly
upslope flow, at and near the surface, and immediately behind
the arctic front.

during friday night through this sunday, periodic and scattered
les showers should target our cwa amidst a mainly nw`erly mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of
the ice-free waters of lakes michigan and huron, and possible
gaps in lake erie`s ice cover. given the expectation of
extensive ice cover on lake huron and especially lake erie, les
intensity and amounts should be limited. note: a shortwave
trough embedded in nw`erly flow aloft may generate widespread
light snow across our cwa saturday night. current odds favor dry
weather sunday night through monday, amidst stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the arctic ridge.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
ongoing light snow showers with mvfr to ifr visibilities across
eastern terminals will gradually diminish through this morning.
anticipate for areawide mvfr ceilings to linger across all taf
sites through the majority of the taf period. a cold front will
move across the region this afternoon and evening bringing
another push of light snow showers to terminals. visibilities
may drop to mvfr/ifr at times in these light snow showers.
southwest winds 5-10 knots this morning will turn northwest
behind the cold front this afternoon/evening. winds become light
and variable as high pressure builds across the region tonight.


outlook...periods of non-vfr expected in low-level clouds and/or
snow showers through thursday. non-vfr likely thursday night
into friday as a cold front moves through the region with more
snow expected.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice covered with ice likely to expand
through this weekend with below normal temperatures expected.
winds will remain light through the week with offshore flow
through tonight. a front will move through on tuesday and allow
for north to northwest flow through wednesday. a warm front will
lift toward the lake on thursday bringing light offshore flow
again to the lake. a clipper system will cross the lake on
friday into saturday. there will be a period of elevated winds
on friday with this system with 20 to 25 kts expected. winds
will then shift to the northwest behind the system with flow
decreasing through the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
535 am est tue feb 3 2026

.key messages...
- a band of snow continues affect areas south of us-30 into this
morning. any snow accumulations are expected to be less than
an inch and lowered visibility has been occurring allow for
the chance for some hazardous road conditions underneath it.

- high temperatures moderate thursday and friday before another brief
shot of arctic air for the weekend late friday/early weekend.

- some light snow accumulations possible late thursday into
friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 252 am est tue feb 3 2026

models have not been handling a bringing a band of higher
reflectivity through the area early this morning and so have
resorted to just tracking it and extrapolating it out. this appears
to be forced along by a mid level vort and is on the backside of the
upper jet. arx lacrosse reported quickly snow covered roads back in
ia and waterloo saw visibilities drop under 1 mi indicating heavy
snow. since tracking it back over ia/il area, obs/reflectivity have
weakened to some extent, but have issued an sps for the snow as it
moves through for some slick conditions.

with this aforementioned area of moving through, it would appear
that the precip shield from the developing low will struggle to get
to our southern tier of counties from white to jay. meanwhile, the
nam is still hanging on to bringing a boundary south through mi.
lake effect snowfall parameters are very marginal, but given how
easy it has been to produce snowfall and that convergence along the
boundary, will still carry pops with it.

northerly flow down lake mi has a brief period of convergence around
laporte and potentially on south. will retain some slight chance
pops for that, but again les parameters appear meager for that
occurrence.

later wednesday into at least early thursday, surface high pressure
and mid level ridging calms down sensible weather hazards.
tempearture-wise, highs in the 20s, become highs in the 30s for
friday as a theta-e plume surges through the area. temperatures fall
back into the 20s for saturday through monday with the cold air
behind the low.

there is some disagreement in handling the system from thursday into
the weekend. the first shortwave comes down from canada brings a
chance for light snow as early as thursday morning, but really only
the ecmwf produces precipitation. the next shortwave comes in
thursday night and early friday and brings additional disjointed
opportunities for light snow. nam bufkit soundings over lenawee
county have the better moisture just above the dgz and the
omega within the dgz. this setup would tend to lower slrs
especially with a lack of a gulf moisture plume. this one comes
with a little bit more agreement in models. system snow pushes
out friday morning and lake effect snow takes over friday
afternoon into friday night. the timing of the vort max and the
arrival of the cold is a little disjointed and the base of the
trough is already east of lake mi as early as friday night,
which lowers confidence in lake effect snow. at least, it
appears that there`s more agreement in the handling of the cold
air that starts friday night and slowly wanes from saturday
night into early next week. the gfs is a little bit more west
than the ecmwf with a second push of cold air on sunday.

we`ll be watching sometime next tuesday/wednesday for another low
pressure system to come towards the area as a trough picks up an
upper low that was stalled across the southwestern us. given how
cold we`ve been, we`ll need to watch for some freezing
precipitation, but that`ll depend where the overrunning/warm front
sets up. the ecmwf is currently modeling that boundary to
reside north of the area, while the gfs has it overhead.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 527 am est tue feb 3 2026

a weak disturbance will continue to bring mvfr cigs through
the remainder of this taf period. some light snowfall expected
for kfwa as a cold frontal boundary pushes southward today
through 21z tue. light northwesterly winds will veer northerly
through this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
444 am est tue feb 3 2026

.key messages...

- continued lake effect snow showers and flurries this morning
bringing light accumulations.

- below normal temperatures persist through most of the week.

- next likely chance for accumulating snow arrives thursday night
through friday.

- arctic air returns this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

sufficient moisture (dew pts in the lower 20s) and light westerly
flow still allowing for flurries across southeast michigan.
secondary cold front dropping south from northern lower michigan
early this morning will help focus flurry/light snow shower
activity, resulting in cigs and visibilities dropping into
mvfr/borderline ifr. the front should clear the state by early this
afternoon, with light northwest winds following the passage leading
to drier air moving in. this is expected to produce clearing late
today into this evening, with clear/mostly clear skies lasting
through the night.

for dtw...the secondary cold front will pass across metro around
15z. pooling of low level moisture along the boundary will warrant
some flurries or light snow showers through early to mid afternoon
before the push of drier air arrives.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 feet into the afternoon, then low.

* high for ptype as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 355 am est tue feb 3 2026

discussion...

robust lake effect response has maintained low level moisture and
light snow/flurries this morning along a lead cold front that will
continue through the remainder of the early morning hours. the
progression of the shortwave across the northern great lakes will
send a trailing a secondary cold front through southeast michigan
through the mid-late morning hours bringing another chance for an
uptick in light snow showers and flurries. given the poor handling
of ongoing lake effect activity, will add back in pops (10-20%) for
scattered light snow showers and flurries into the early afternoon.
highest pops around 12z will be focused north of i-69 near the front
and then focus south of i-69 from 14- 15z into the early afternoon.
model soundings continue to highlight saturation within the dgz
within a weakly forced environment along the front. dry air is
expected to follow behind the front, which will help lower moisture
depth as omega also erodes with time today. any overachievement in
ratios/qpf through the morning could result in a few tenths of snow
accumulation.

the dry air and arrival of the eastern extension of surface high
over the upper midwest should result in some clearing into tonight.
hi-res forecast soundings keep some lingering saturation with
respect to ice within the dgz this evening. thus, isolated flurry
activity could linger into the evening with any clouds. confidence
is too low to add mention in the forecast past 21z. if it did occur,
would only expect a dusting if any accumulation at all. any clearing
should aide in dropping low temperatures tonight into wednesday
morning down into the single digits with wind chills of around zero
to few degrees below.

surface high pressure slides through the state on wednesday bringing
a break in precipitation given no real ascent over the area along
with a very dry airmass. temperatures around -10c at 850mb highlight
the continued below normal stretch of temperatures into mid-week.
daytime highs for wednesday are forecast to be around 20 degrees.
dry conditions hold into wednesday night and thursday morning as
surface flow backs to the west and eventually southwest by late
thursday morning. another cold start to thursday morning with low
temperatures into the single digits.

a clipper system will round the western conus ridge ahead of a
deeper low pressure emerging off hudson bay thursday night/friday
morning. improving moisture quality (850-700mb specific humidity of
2+ g/kg) supplied by the increasing southwest flow will feed the
lead isentropic ascent resulting in widespread light snowfall
spreading across southeast michigan from the northwest. better
accumulation potential currently lands after 06z friday morning and
through the rest of the morning. ensemble space continues to support
a good shot of at least an inch for much of southeast michigan. the
warm advection does bring potential to see daytime highs towards into
the low 30s for friday before arctic air again plunges into the
region behind the wave. over the weekend, expect forecast lows each
morning down towards zero with sub zero wind chills and daytime highs
topping out in the teens.

marine...

moderate northwesterly winds continue through today as colder air
follows yesterday`s clipper. strongest winds remain over the
northern and central portions of lake huron, given the fetch, where
winds of 15-20kts are most likely though gusts in the 20-25kt range
are possible over the north-central waters- which also would support
some areas of freezing spray in ice-free waters. high pressure
dropping out of canada then expands over the region through midweek
promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds. another clipper
swinging out of northern ontario is expected to draw an arctic cold
front over the central great lakes late friday-saturday. strong
trailing cold advection looks to offer the next shot at gales and
heavy freezing spray (for whatever ice-free waters are still there
by that point) over lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.