Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
791
fxus61 kcle 252006
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
406 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

.what has changed...
not much has changed from previous forecast. cool weather this
weekend followed by a brief warm up early next week. a cooler
weather pattern will return for the end of next week.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure and cool weather expected for the rest of this
weekend.

2) there will be a brief warm up ahead of a cold front monday
into tuesday. an upper level trough will develop over the great
lakes region and bring below average temperatures for the end
of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
weak high pressure is building down from ontario canada this
weekend. skies will stay pretty much overcast today through
early sunday with gradual clearing by sunday afternoon. there
will be a northeast to easterly flow today through sunday that
will keep temperatures on the cooler side. temperatures will
range from the middle 50s near the lakeshore to the middle 60s
closer to central ohio today. high temperatures on sunday will
range from the upper 50s near the lakeshore to middle to upper
60s closer to central ohio.

key message 2...
a low pressure system will track northeastward through the
midwest into western great lakes on monday with a trailing cold
front. southerly winds will return on monday and warmer
temperatures with high temperatures in the lower to upper 70s.
most of monday will be dry with partly cloudy skies. later
monday night, scattered showers and isolated thunder will move
in from west to east ahead of the approaching cold front. the
actual cold front will move across the area by tuesday
afternoon. additional scattered showers and isolated thunder
will be likely on tuesday. temperatures will still be warm on
tuesday in the lower to middle 70s. an upper level trough begins
to take shape over the great lakes region for the middle and end
of next week with a cooler weather pattern. a wave of low
pressure will track across the ohio valley and mid-atlantic
region on wednesday with additional chances for scattered
showers over the area. much cooler temperatures will arrive
later next week with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the
30s and 40s. we will have to keep an eye on a couple nights late
next week for the possibility of frost and or freezing
temperatures in regards to the growing season.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
at the surface, a high pressure ridge builds gradually from
james bay and vicinity through 18z/sun as a trough axis remains
nearly stationary over western ny and western pa. our regional
surface winds veer gradually from nw`erly to ne`erly and trend
5 to 15 knots through the taf period. widespread low clouds and
resulting mvfr to lifr ceilings persist for the time being as
lingering moisture at/near the surface remains trapped beneath
a low-level inversion accompanying the building ridge. these low
clouds may produce occasional sprinkles or drizzle.

subtle breaks in the low clouds, weak surface winds, and the
lingering low-level moisture should allow mist/fog to form
after ~05z/sun, especially roughly along and east of the
longitude of kcak. however, persistent onshore surface flow
associated with low-level cold air advection across ~49f lake
erie should contribute to mist or fog lingering along and near
the lakeshore from roughly the longitude of kbkl and points east
this afternoon into sun morning. following the onset of daytime
warming and resulting convective mixing of the boundary layer,
any lingering mist/fog should dissipate by ~14z/sun. the same
processes should allow lingering low clouds to become scattered
to broken in coverage and any lingering ceilings should rise to
the 2kft to 4kft agl range between ~14z/sun and 18z/sun.

outlook...periodic rain showers with non-vfr are expected
monday night through thursday. occasional thunderstorms are
expected monday night through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a high pressure ridge builds slowly from the james bay area
through tonight and then exits slowly e`ward on sunday through
monday. waves of 3 feet or less are expected as winds around 5
to 15 knots veer gradually from n`erly to e`erly to se`erly.
note: patchy fog is expected over lake erie the rest of today
through late sunday morning as colder and fairly moist air
crosses the ~49f lake.

during monday night through wednesday morning, a low should
deepen and wobble nne`ward from the upper ms valley to hudson
bay. the accompanying warm front should sweep ne`ward across
lake erie monday night through early tuesday afternoon and be
followed by the e`ward passage of a cold front tuesday evening
through tuesday night. by daybreak wednesday, the cold front
should be located over far-eastern lake erie and may stall for a
time before exiting the rest of the lake to the east by midday
as a secondary low potentially moves nne`ward along the front.
the warm front passage will cause e`erly to se`erly winds around
15 to 25 knots to veer to s`erly to sw`erly. the cold front
passage will cause s`erly to sw`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots
to veer to nw`erly. waves as large as 3 to 6 feet are expected
monday night into tuesday morning. waves should then subside
gradually to 3 feet or less the rest of tuesday through
wednesday morning. forecast trends may prompt a small craft
advisory.

during wednesday afternoon, a trough should linger over lake
erie before a high pressure ridge builds from the north-central
united states wednesday night through thursday. w`erly to
nw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less
are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
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fxus63 kiwx 251937
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
337 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable through the weekend with temperatures in the
mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

- confidence is increasing that there could be severe weather
late monday afternoon through monday night. damaging winds
and embedded tornadoes will be the main threats. there is also
potential for heavy rain and flooding after sunset on monday.

- cooler air is ahead next week to begin may! highs only in the
50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s will be possible
by the middle to end of next week. near freezing temperatures
at night may damage early season crops and plants!

&&

.discussion...
issued at 336 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

today is about as quiet of a day as you can get across the upper
great lakes in april with mostly sunny skies, light northerly winds,
and temperatures in the 60s this afternoon. thanks to an upper level
ridge, another pleasant day is ahead sunday with nearly
identical conditions (albeit a bit more cloud cover, especially
in the morning). seasonable temperatures persist with caa from
prevailing northerly winds.

confidence is increasing that there could be severe weather late
monday afternoon through monday night. a series of strong 500 mb
shortwaves will eject out of the colorado rockies late sunday, with
a low pressure system developing across the central plains and
deepening as it lifts into the upper midwest by monday evening. a
warm front is expected to lift northward through our area during the
day monday, with breezy southwesterly winds and waa boosting highs
to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. moisture return from the gulf
will also boost dewpoints into the low to mid 60s monday afternoon.
clusters of storms or a more organized qlcs should develop and move
through iowa, missouri, and illinois during the afternoon on monday.
the current thinking is that this convection will sustain itself
into our forecast area by monday evening into monday night, although
uncertainty remains on just how far east it will be able to maintain
severe status. an enhanced risk for severe weather does clip our far
southwest (white county, in), with a slight risk across much of
northern indiana. model runs today have slightly sped up the timing
of the warm front during the day monday, which would mean our area
ends up in a more favorable environment for severe weather; guidance
from the nam and gfs show convection getting into far western
indiana between 21-00z while the ecmwf continues to delay it until
06z. we will likely be able to discern exact timing in the next 24
hours or so as models hone in on a consensus, however, i do think
that the best window for severe weather will be from 6 pm edt monday
to 2 am edt tuesday. the best potential for severe weather will
likely be west of us 31. this may end up being a high shear, low
cape setup on monday as instability is expected to diminish after
dark. despite a loss of instability after sunset (only 500-1000 j/kg
mucape), there does appear to be a decent setup given ~40 kts of
bulk shear and ~150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km srh. all hazards will be
possible if severe weather occurs monday evening into monday night,
including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. there is also
potential for heavy rain and efficient rainfall rates over 2"/hr.
with pwats near 1.50" (which is around the 99th percentile
climatology for april 27th), ample low level moisture, and forecast
sounding depicting a deep, warm cloud layer, flooding will be
possible late in the day on monday. total qpf across our forecast
area is expected to be between 0.50" to 1.50" by early tuesday
morning.

an unseasonably cool airmass will filter into the great lakes region
by the middle to end of next week as an upper level low develops
over the northeast. with dominant northerly flow, the climate
prediction center has 60-70% probabilities for cooler than
normal temperatures by the end of april into early may. highs
only in the 50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s will be
possible by the middle to end of next week. the growing season
has already begun for our forecast area as of mid-april. near
freezing temperatures at night may damage early season crops and
plants!

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 123 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

with ridging remaining across the area post-cold front from
yesterday, the area is set to be affected by forming low level
inversions overnight. given low level moisture from recent rain,
and the combination of times of fog and stratus across the area
last night, we`ll have to watch out for stratus/fog formation
again tonight. with high pressure moving southeastward, north of
the area, east winds take hold late tonight. this would tend to
indicate that the area to watch will be in the i-69 corridor to
start. at this point, aviation guidance is just taking mvfr cigs
to sbn so confidence is low on whether or not they have some
time in mvfr cigs. nam bufkit soundings appear to keep fog out
of both areas with fwa never decoupling. this would make stratus
more possible and that seems to be what aviation guidance
indicates. there`s more confidence in status at fwa and think
mvfr is a good place to start with this issuance. it is possible
we end up with fuel alternate and that the time frame of these
mvfr cigs is slightly adjusted so confidence in this is
relatively low.

as mentioned before, the eastward movement of high pressure to our
north allows winds to veer from northerly to easterly overnight.
initial 10 kt sustained winds lighten up overnight. while 10 kt
sustained winds are possible on sunday, gusts struggle to reach 25
kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 252244
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
644 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions will exist to finish the weekend.

- warming trend monday as dry conditiosn persist, before showers and
thunderstorms return monday night into tuesday.

&&

.aviation...

dry air advection has been slowly eroding the low cloud deck across
the thumb and saginaw valley region. as northeasterly low level flow
persists through the evening, this clearing is expected to advance
across the terminals. given the deep low level inversion, there is
some degree of uncertainty as to how quickly this clearing takes
hold and whether any lingering low clouds hold under the inversion.
in light of current satellite trends, timing the loss of a bkn or
ovc ceiling at the terminals has been moved up a couple hours.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 248 pm edt sat apr 25 2026

discussion...

notably cooler conditions entrenched locally within a persistent
area of stratus late this afternoon, as the resident thermal profile
now governed by prevailing northerly flow south of influential high
pressure. secondary period of cold air advection this evening as
flow veers and increases depth to northeast wind, with the thermal
flux augmented by onshore flow off the cold lake huron waters. this
process will also work to erode remaining saturation beneath the
inversion, affording a gradual clearing trend with time. lows sunday
morning arriving in the uppe 30s to lowe 40s most locatins.

deep layer stability held within prevailing low to mid level ridging
affords dry and seasonable conditions to finish the weekend period.
a standard moderation of the existing airmass occurs under a high
degree of insolation and increasing upper height field, but still
lacking in meaningful warm air advection. highs in the lower 60s in
most locations, except near the shorelines. lingering influence of
upper ridging ensures dry and stable conditions persist throughout
the daylight period monday. resident airmass continues to moderate
given the elevated mean thickness readings, but still capped by a
low level gradient that remains modified by a southeasterly
component. highs arriving above average - readings mid to upper 60s.

mid level wave noted on water vapor this afternoon off the coast of
california projected to eject northeast over the next 72 hours, with
the main height fall center reaching the great lakes by tuesday
morning. a narrow plume of deeper moisture will align parallel to
the inbound associated cold front, as the parent surface low tracks
toward lake superior. a sizable convective episode likely to emerge
upstream by monday evening within a favored corridor of higher
magnitude instability and supportive kinematics. influx of higher
quality moisture coincident with an increase in frontal forcing will
likely sustain this activity to some degree into lower michigan mon
night-tue morning. expectation for limited instability to exist as
consolidated activity funnels downstream and arrives locally within
the diurnal minimum precludes a greater concern for organized
convection at this stage. forecast will continue to call for a high
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms within the am hours.

broad mid level troughing south of a closed low meandering across
central canada will take control through the latter half of next
week. generally benign conditions favored within this pattern,
absent of meaningful areas of greater forced ascent and moisture
quality/depth. trending cooler with time wed to fri as mid level
heights gradually decline atop prevailing low level northwest flow.
below average temperatures expected to wrap up the month of april.

marine...

gradual establishment of high pressure maintains a slow weakening
trend in winds through the evening. high holds over the region
through early monday maintaining benign marine conditions.
southeasterly winds strength latter half of monday as the next low
lifts out of the central plains towards the northern great lakes.
while a 45-60kt llj develops over the central great lakes monday
night, accompanying warm advection should promote a stable overlake
thermal profile limiting mixing potential. currently local
probabilistic guidance is advertising a ~35% chance to reach 34kts.
arrival of showers and storms late night-early tuesday does offer
potential for profiles to turn more neutral, however this set-up
would warrant short-fused special marine warnings over gale
headlines. system`s cold front crosses daytime tuesday ending storm
chances as well as flipping winds to the northwest. rapidly
weakening pressure gradient on the backedge of the low keeps these
winds under 30kts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.