Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
497
fxus61 kcle 242317
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
717 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

.what has changed...
there are no major changes to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry, seasonable weather will continue through the first half
of next week before a warming trend. overnight and early morning
fog will continue in nw ohio and interior portions of ne ohio/nw
pa, but coverage will trend lower through monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the southern great lakes and upper ohio valley regions will
remain locked in the familiar weather pattern through early next
week. an omega block, characterized by a couple of mid/upper
troughs and closed lows rotating into the rockies and four
corners regions and another trough/closed low set up off the
east coast with sharp central conus ridging in between, will
gradually break down through monday. this will allow strong
canadian high pressure at the surface, currently centered over
southern new england, to drift south into the mid atlantic and
southern appalachians by monday. another night of clear skies
and light winds with the high nearby tonight will allow lows to
dip into the upper 30s/low 40s, with some low 30s in far ne ohio
and nw pa. patchy frost is possible in those areas away from the
lake, but it will be of minimal impact since the growing season
has already ended up there. the bigger impact will be areas of
fog again tonight and sunday night, but increasing se return flow
to mitigate a daily lake breeze will start to lower dew points
enough to limit fog coverage at night. expect decent fog
coverage in nw ohio and interior parts of ne ohio/nw pa again
tonight since sufficient low-level moisture and small temp/dew
point spreads will remain below the inversion, but coverage will
be less than last night and will further trend less sunday
night.

a mid/upper shortwave dropping through the eastern great lakes
monday will drive a weak cold front through the area monday
afternoon, but very limited moisture return will lead to a dry
frontal passage. the main impact will be a brief cool down, with
highs in the upper 60s/low 70s monday cooling into the upper
50s/mid 60s tuesday as a new canadian high builds down across
the great lakes. however, starting wednesday and on into next
weekend, a strong subtropical pacific jet extension (a response
to the powerful el nino) will drive a series of storm systems
into the west coast. this will build an expanding mid/upper
ridge over the eastern conus leading to a big warming trend.
widespread 70s are possible the second half of the week and
into next weekend, with continued dry conditions until a cold
front possibly approaches late saturday.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
dense fog is once again possible across nw oh sunday morning,
primarily impacting ktol, although a brief period of reduced
visibilities are also possible at kfdy and kmfd near sunrise.
confidence is highest at ktol and have opted to maintain 1/2sm
for a period near sunrise in that taf. aside from that, the
remainder of the period will have vfr conditions with southerly
winds of 3-7 knots expected.

outlook...patchy fog is possible monday morning, but otherwise
primarily vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through monday as
high pressure gradually drifts south along the east coast. light
winds this afternoon will turn generally s at 5-10 knots tonight
and sunday before turning sw at 5-15 knots sunday night ahead of
a cold front. winds will turn n behind the front monday
afternoon then ne monday night and tuesday while increasing to
15-20 knots. small craft headlines are possible monday
night/tuesday since winds have been trending a little higher.
winds will gradually diminish tuesday night while turning ese,
with ese winds of 5-10 knots wednesday. a warm front lifting
across the lake wednesday night will set up stronger sw winds
thursday, but they look to stay below small craft criteria at
this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...04
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
174
fxus63 kiwx 242323
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
723 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

.key messages...

- pleasant weather persists through the upcoming week with
highs around 70, lows in the 40s, and no rain expected.

- areas of fog possible early monday morning along the i-69
corridor and into northwest ohio.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 155 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

strong upper-level ridging persists this afternoon with surface
high pressured noted over the northeast. as a result, status-
quo on the forecast overall including cruise-control
temperatures within a couple of degrees these next two days.
we`ll be monitoring for fog tonight into early monday morning.
guidance appears most keen on the i-69 corridor including
northwest ohio, yet light surface wind from the south may limit
any lake erie moisture advection, while radiational cooling
appears to be sufficient.

low pressure over manitoba this afternoon features a cold front
draped across the central and northern plains. this front attempts to
seep over our area tuesday as it gets hung-up atop our persistent
upper-level ridge. this will knock temperatures down a few degrees
tuesday, yet temperatures will still be well above normal (normal
high/low 60/40). otherwise, remaining very mild and dry this week
with our next chance for any rain not arriving until perhaps
thursday afternoon (20% chance) as another front attempts to cross
our ridge. the abundance of dry air and overall absence of forcing
leaves me unimpressed. instead, late next weekend into early
november looks to be the better opportunity to end our dry spell
with low pressure emerging from the southern/central plains.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 722 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

surface high pressure stalls over the northeast as a cold front
slows down its approach from the northwest. this setup allows for
continued slow veering to the south from this evening to tomorrow
afternoon. it also means that east trajectories still have a chance
at pushing fog back toward fwa tonight. fog extended much
farther west than models projected last night, but the placement
of the fog is much farther east than where it was last night.
we`ll also have some high clouds around the area. this places
some uncertainty on if it`ll reach fwa yet and so will continue
the tempo 3/4sm group of the previous taf issuance as well as
the wider 3sm prevailing group.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
929
fxus63 kdtx 250350
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1150 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for dense fog development sunday and monday
mornings. any patchy/dense fog is expected to dissipate by late
morning.

- high temperatures increase to around 70 on sunday before a dry
cold front drops us back into the upper 50s to low 60s monday and
tuesday.

- dry conditions through the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

generally dry and stable conditions will persist throughout
southeast michigan this period, as high pressure centered to the
east maintains control. this environment will again offer a
favorable environment for some degree of fog formation overnight
into sunday morning. prevailing light low level east to southeast
flow will support moisture flux off lake erie, with a noted increase
in fog just south of the detroit corridor already. this suggests an
increasingly likelihood for lifr fog to emerge across this area
during the early morning. less confidence overall toward the north,
but with some persistence within this pattern suggesting the
likelihood remains high enough to maintain lifr in the forecast for
all locations. standard improvement in conditions where fog becomes
dense during the late morning hours, leaving another day of
vfr/clear skies into the afternoon and evening sunday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm sunday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 336 pm edt sat oct 24 2026

discussion...

se mi continues to reside under the western edge of northeastern
high pressure. upper ridging folding into lower mi supports a couple
degree warmer day as highs reach the upper 60s. with light
south/southeast winds overnight, fog potential is favored along the
lakes st clair-erie as lake moisture is drawn inland though patchy
radiative fog also possible further north like the previous couple
mornings.

upper ridging is flattened overtop the state sunday by a cold front
sagging out of northern ontario. core of the accompanying airmass
(850mb temps 10-11c) allows highs to make a run to 70. said front
eventually sinks across the cwa early monday to little fanfare given
the detachment from the parent wave over eastern canada and frontal
orientation parallel to mean flow. fropa does bring a brief cool
down closer to late october averages as 850mb temps fall to low
single digits c with highs in the 50s-low 60s.

arrival of a series of waves over the pacific northwest induces low
amplitude ridging over the central conus mid to late week, only
briefly interrupted by a southern stream low lifting through the
midwest. locally this leads to another stretch of above normal
temperatures and limited chances for rain to close out the month.

marine...

we will remain on the western periphery of high pressure anchored
over the new england area through the rest of the weekend. this will
favor a continuation of southerly flow across the area. wind speeds
will increase through the end of the weekend as the pressure
gradient increases in advance of an approaching cold front. this
cold front slows down out over the straits sunday, but then
gradually proceeds to drop south across lake huron sunday night into
monday. as the front moves through, south winds become northerly by
monday and then gradually veer and become easterly by tuesday. wind
speeds along and behind the front are progged to remain below 25
knots. with the return of onshore flow, waves build to around 3 feet
or so based on the current forecast. falling short of small craft
concerns, but something to keep an eye on. there could be a few
showers along the cold front sunday afternoon into monday morning
across lake huron, but overall the front will be on a weakening
trend as it drops through the region.

the pattern becomes more progressive next week, with a series of low
pressure systems tracking through the western great lakes region.
while this will result in fluctuating wind directions mid to late
week, ensembles do not any signals for any headline-worth winds
through the end of next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......ja

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.