Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
512
fxus61 kcle 232317
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
717 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) periodic showers and thunderstorms likely through the end of the
week with a chance for a few strong storms thursday afternoon and
evening.

2) below normal temperatures through wednesday, with a warming trend
into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
after a dry period today and wednesday, a trough will dive south
from central canada down into the great lakes region late wednesday
night into thursday morning. at the surface, a low pressure will
move west to east into the region lifting a warm front north across
ohio and pennsylvania. surface winds will shift to be out of the
south behind the front increasing temperatures and dew points across
the region. additionally, there will be some isentropic lift with
the front that will develop showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
early thursday morning into the mid day. this precipitation will
linger throughout the day, though there may be a brief break in the
afternoon ahead of the cold front. there will be decent jet support
with the front with enough instability from the advecting warm,
moist air mass from the south that would support a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. the general area would be along and east of i-
71. though, this will also be dependent on how the morning
precipitation shapes up and if there will be enough recovery across
the region to be able to support severe weather. the cold front
should clear the region to the south and east late thursday evening
ending any severe weather potential.

the cold front will stall to the south across the ohio river
valley on friday and waver north to south through saturday. this
will provide periodic showers and a few thunderstorms across
the region, mainly south of the us 30 corridor. a supporting
shortwave will move through the ohio river valley on friday that
will push precipitation further north and bring more moisture
into the region. this will be fighting drier air from high
pressure situated across the northern great lakes and will most
likely limit the northward extent of the precipitation. upper
level ridging begins to build into eastern conus on saturday and
will dry out the region.

key message 2...
temperatures over the next couple of days will continue to be below
average with the northerly flow across the region. highs today will
be in the 70s and approach the low 80s on wednesday with overnight
lows tonight in the mid to low 50s. behind the warm front on
temperatures will begin a warming trend, though will be slightly
muted due to the rainfall and increased cloud cover. highs will be
in the 80s with dew points climbing up into the low to mid 60s with
the southerly flow. by sunday, as high pressure begins to build
across the region, temperatures will increase further and continue
into early next week. there`s fairly good agreement that high
temperatures by the start of next week will approach, if not exceed,
90 for much of the region outside of the area around the lakeshore.
additionally, this will bring a more humid air mass as well, and
heat indices will be elevated as well.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
expect vfr for the majority of the taf period, although there
will likely be a period of patchy fog at kcak/kyng/kfdy and
possibly kmfd early wednesday morning. guidance isn`t very
aggressive with reduced visibilities, but forecast soundings
suggest that there will be sufficient radiational cooling and
low level moisture to support mvfr/ifr visibilities for at least
a brief period before diurnal mixing develops after sunrise.

winds will become light and variable tonight before becoming
more southwesterly at around 5 knots at western terminals
wednesday afternoon. a lake breeze will likely produce north
winds at kcle/keri during the afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
wednesday night into thursday and again on friday night into
saturday.

&&

.marine...
with the exception of some stronger wind gusts associated with
thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening, generally quiet
marine conditions are expected into the weekend. periods of
light, onshore flow of around 10 knots will continue through
wednesday night, before briefly becoming south to southwest on
thursday, 10 to 15 knots. winds will shift back to the north,
then northeast behind a cold front on friday into saturday, 10
knots or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
895
fxus63 kiwx 240423
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1223 am edt wed jun 24 2026

.key messages...

- the next chance for showers and storms arrives wednesday
afternoon into wednesday night. severe weather is not expected
at this time.

- additional chances (30-70%) for showers and embedded storms
late thursday night into friday, best chances south of us-24.

- hot weather settles in by early next week with highs in the
90s.

&&

.update...
issued at 1006 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this
evening across se minnesota into far west central wisconsin in
association with axis of strong isentropic lift. through time,
this isentropic forcing will shift east, with strongest
isentropic lift reaching far western great lakes by daybreak
wednesday. given a substantial drop off in cape fields with
eastward extent this evening, would not expect initial
convective activity to survive southeastward into the local area
in any noteworthy form. mentionable pops are still held for
after 16z wednesday as some sfc based instability is expected to
develop along with approach of modest upper jet streak/upper
level short wave. previous forecast has these trends in hand
and no substantial changes made to previous forecast at this
time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

high pressure in between upper level shortwaves will continue to
provide pleasant weather conditions into tonight and wednesday
morning. a somewhat slow moving cold front then drops southeast
through the area late wednesday afternoon into thursday morning,
trailing a mid level shortwave tracking east through the northern
great lakes. weak forcing and lacking moisture return suggest
isolated to scattered coverage with any shower/storm activity along
the front, best chances west of i-69 late wednesday
afternoon/evening where an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled
out given favorable deep layer shear magnitudes. renewed convection
expected along the boundary thursday afternoon, though the bulk of
available model guidance has the front south-southeast of the area
by this time with mainly dry/seasonable conditions locally by this
time.

the aforementioned frontal boundary likely stalls over the ohio
river valley thursday night through saturday under flattened quasi-
zonal flow. guidance continues to point toward a rather healthy
convective system tracking east along this boundary later thursday
night into friday, potentially clipping mainly southern portions of
the forecast area with a period of rain and embedded thunder. mainly
dry and trending warmer/muggy otherwise sunday into early next week
as an upper level ridge builds northward into the great lakes
region. peak pm heat indices may near 100f by monday-tuesday.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1223 am edt wed jun 24 2026

inherited tafs were in great shape requiring minimal updates.
increasing confidence in the coverage of showers later today,
prompting a tempo group at ksbn. instability remains
questionable, thus the taf remains thunder-free. both of these
elements will be reexamined (at both sites) with the next
update. can`t completely rule out a brief period of mvfr
ceilings behind the 850-mb trough that delivers -shra, but
guidance is incongruent there. otherwise, wind generally below
10 knots through the period thanks to a minimal pressure
gradient over the broader midwest.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
546
fxus63 kdtx 240348
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1148 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather persists tonight.

- slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue through mid to
late week.

- the next chance of rain arrives wednesday afternoon and night then
lasts through thursday. there is a low chance for thunderstorms
thursday afternoon.

- warming temperatures this weekend with additional rain chances.

&&

.aviation...

passing high pressure maintains vfr skies and light winds for the
rest of the night. a developing warm front then lifts into the
region wednesday afternoon supporting increasing lower vfr cloud
cover by late morning with shower chances arriving by afternoon tied
to decaying upstream convection. exactly how well this activity
survives into se mi carries uncertainty still however all terminals
likely see periodic light showers through the evening. thunder can`t
be ruled out but confidence is too low to include in the current
forecast.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through wednesday
morning, a very low chance wednesday afternoon-evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft wednesday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 244 pm edt tue jun 23 2026

discussion...

northerly flow off of lake huron has led to diurnal cumulus
development this afternoon underneath transient cirrus aloft.
comfortable evening is in store for se michigan with temperatures in
the low-mid 70s and clearing skies overnight.

lead edge of the height fall center moves into lower michigan
wednesday morning, followed by a steady influx of moisture and
thickening high level cirrus throughout the day. isentropic arm of
this system then supplies moist ascent into the lowest 700mb of the
column beginning early wednesday evening and continuing overnight,
creating the next opportunity for rain across se michigan. standard
concerns as to how upstream convection over southern conus will
impact moisture transport into this northern stream system, which
caps qpf to a half inch or less wednesday night. cannot completely
rule out a rumble of thunder with this activity, although mid level
lapse rates generally remain aob 6.0 c/km in the warm advective
regime.

dry slot arrives thursday morning, but with additional perturbations
rippling around the mid-level circulation that could overcome some
of the ongoing subsidence. this keeps lower pops in play for the
morning hours, until instability builds thursday afternoon as the
boundary layer destabilizes. mid level lapse rates improve to 6.5
c/km as the main trough axis moves across northern lower, which also
adds broader synoptic support to the environment and reinvigorates
shower and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon. this is
especially true for the saginaw valley/thumb which are in closer
proximity to the synoptic forcing and moisture. varying degrees of
subsidence in the model suite, with capping potential increasing
south of i-69. if the more bullish solutions were to verify (e.g.
nam), the environment could support a stronger cell or two across
the north, although severe weather is unlikely at this time.

pops then decrease thursday night once the front completely slides
through in favor of dry weather friday. temperatures through the
week remain seasonably cool, in the mid to upper 70s before a warm
up is expected this weekend into early next week in which a hot and
humid pattern is forecast to emerge. remnant baroclinic axis is
forecast to settle across the ohio valley this weekend, keeping rain
chances south of the state line through the weekend, although there
are still many points in the forecast cycle where this could trend
north. roughly a third of ensemble members generate measurable qpf
this weekend.

marine...

high pressure anchored over the region will maintain quiet
conditions across all waterways through tuesday. modest winds
prevailing generally from the north to northwest tonight will become
southerly tuesday. a low pressure system will gradually advance
across the region wednesday and thursday. this will bring
intermittent potential for showers and thunderstorms through this
period. limited wind and wave action expected overall given a weak
gradient, but with any stronger storms being capable of producing
locally higher gusts.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...mv
marine.......mr


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