Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
067
fxus61 kcle 171845
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
245 pm edt thu sep 17 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing for a prolonged wet pattern across the
region beginning on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish across
the area through tonight as a cold front moves through the area.

2) unsettled weather returns for the weekend and into early next
week. heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible, especially
saturday into sunday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a decaying
complex of showers and storms across portions of northwest and
north-central ohio this afternoon, with that trend expected to
continue over the next several hours as a weak downstream
thermodynamic environment remains in place. meanwhile, surface
observations indicate a surface cold front in michigan which
will continue to move south across the area by later this
evening and overnight. most of the area will largely remain dry
behind this afternoon`s precipitation, though shower and storm
chances may increase again for a tier or two of counties across
the southwest (findlay to mount vernon) as a shortwave tracks
along the front overnight.

high pressure will build south across the great lakes following the
cold front on friday, leading to mainly dry and pleasant
weather.

key message 2...
unsettled weather will return beginning on saturday and could
persist through early next week. low pressure will lift a warm
front north across the ohio valley on saturday, before it stalls
in the vicinity of the lower great lakes. a couple of mid-
level shortwaves will track east along the front late saturday
through sunday which will result in periodic showers and storms,
the most widespread of which should occur saturday night into
sunday morning. heavy rain appears to be the main threat with
tall, skinny cape profiles and anomalously-high pwats.

the latest upper-level guidance suggests that the active weather
pattern will continue through the early part of next week as several
disturbances move through or impact the area. this includes a weak
upper-level low on monday, followed by a shortwave and residual
troughing by tuesday and wednesday. periods of mainly rain will
occur during this timeframe, though can`t rule out some isolated
thunderstorms with pockets of elevated instability. areal flooding
concerns will continue to increase through the weekend and into
early next week and will need to be monitored.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
widespread mvfr and ifr are seen at most terminals across the
region this afternoon and evening. rains showers are moving
across western ohio currently that will temporarily bring down
visibility to around 2sm for ktol and kfdy. kmfd will see
impacts within the next few hours, though visibility shouldn`t
drop to ifr. mvfr to ifr ceilings are expected to continue
through the overnight as the lower levels will stay saturated
longer than anticipated. drier air will move in early tomorrow
morning that will improve conditions across the region from
north to south.

winds will generally be on the light side through the taf period
around 5-10 knots out of the northwest then shifting to the
north by tomorrow morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms
saturday through sunday.

&&

.marine...
brief rough conditions will return across lake erie late tonight
into friday morning as a cold front ushers in northeast winds of 15
to 20 knots. given the brief nature of 3 to 4-footers, opted against
a small craft advisory at this time. winds will gradually diminish
into friday afternoon as high pressure builds south across the great
lakes. winds will then shift towards the east on saturday ahead of a
warm front, 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast and increasing into
the 20 to 25 knot range sunday night as a stationary front settles
just south of lake erie. northeast winds will increase further into
the 25 to 30 knot range monday into tuesday as the pressure gradient
increases between surface troughing and high pressure to the north.
can`t rule out brief gale-force gusts during this timeframe, though
at this time, the potential for a more prolonged period of gales
appears low.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...23
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
339
fxus63 kiwx 171757
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
157 pm edt thu sep 17 2026

.key messages...

- additional storms are possible along and south of us-24
tonight but confidence is low. brief heavy rain can be
anticipated with any storms that develop.

- after dry conditions on friday, more widespread heavy rain is
possible over the weekend. confidence is low on exact timing,
locations, and amounts but this could bring additional
flooding.

- cooler and drier weather returns tuesday-thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 156 pm edt thu sep 17 2026

active weather to continue through at least monday as our area
remains on the dreaded n/ne fringes of large mid/upper level ridge.
heavy rain this morning is finally ending with a brief break
expected late this afternoon. however, additional storms are
possible later this evening (esp south of us-24) as models indicate
another weak shortwave possibly developing along the sharp
baroclinic zone currently in place. confidence is low however as
there is relatively high spread among various models (including the
cam`s) regarding timing, location, and intensity of any convection
that does manage to develop due to incredibly weak/subtle synoptic
forcing overnight. tend to favor the hrrr here which shows a more
muted convective response focused just south of our area where
remnant outflow boundary likely sets up. the idea that the bulk of
the activity will be focused just to our south has reasonable
agreement from other cam`s but the hrrr is on the far end of the
spectrum with some models developing storms in our far south late
this evening before quickly pushing into central in/oh. will
therefore hold off on another flood watch in our area, but
huntington, wells and adams counties will be highly sensitive to any
additional rain and will watch those closely tonight.

we get a brief surge of high pressure/dry air advection tomorrow as
the front is shunted south. however, a more robust shortwave arrives
on sat with another round of strengthening llj/theta-e advection. as
expected with this pattern there remains a high degree of
uncertainty where and when the next round of rain falls but do
expect someone in the southern great lakes to get heavy rain during
this period given the degree of moisture being pumped into a quasi-
stationary e-w boundary. multiple rounds of convection are likely
sat-sun and may even extend into mon. additional flood watches for
this weekend are very possible. pattern finally shifts a bit by the
middle of next week with drier and cooler conditions expected.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 156 pm edt thu sep 17 2026

most of the heavier showers and thunderstorms have come to an end
across northern indiana as a convectively enhanced short wave is
departing to the east. a broader scale longwave trough across
northern great lakes will help to push baroclinic zone southward
tonight into friday morning. this increased frontal forcing may
cause some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop
generally along and south of the us route 24 corridor. confidence at
this time is not high enough to include more than prob30 shower
mention this evening at kfwa. some lingering ifr conditions to begin
the period will improve to mvfr this afternoon (or possibly vfr).
some additional ifr or lower end mvfr cigs are possible late evening
into early friday morning with preferred location north of sfc
boundary. lingering mvfr cigs should prove shortly after daybreak
with increased diurnal mixing.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for inz017-018-
023>027-032>034.
oh...flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
816
fxus63 kdtx 171936
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
336 pm edt thu sep 17 2026

.key messages...

- a dry period is expected tonight into tomorrow.

- widespread showers and possible thunderstorms return saturday into
sunday. rainfall totals in excess of half an inch are likely, with
the potential for 1 inch or more.

&&

.discussion...

greater subsidence arrives this afternoon and has brought an end to
the main area of showers, but some isolated light rain/drizzle
remain this afternoon. while showers largely come to an end, expect
cloud cover to linger into the evening especially along and south of
i-69. at least some low chances to see a stray shower along the
southern border tonight as the stalled frontal boundary lingers
across northern in/oh. cooler northerly flow will be drawn into the
area tonight by a surface high moving into ontario. this will help
bring morning overnight lows tonight down into the upper 40s across
parts the far northern cwa in the saginaw valley and maybe parts of
the thumb.

this surface high center will slide east into quebec into tomorrow
and be the influencing feature that will result dry conditions
tomorrow. southern extension of the thermal trough with surface flow
out of the n-ne will bring daytime highs right around seasonal
normals in the mid 70s for most of southeast michigan with around
70s across the northern portions of the thumb.

a plume of deep moisture will then be drawn into michigan late
friday and saturday around the broad southeast conus ridge. theta-e
ridge lifting into the region will contain pwats of 1.50 inches to
1.75 inches or greater. increased flow under right entrance jet
dynamics will help support larger scale synoptic lift northeast of a
developing trough across the plains. this will lead to an area of
showers and thunderstorms upstream across the western great lakes
states that will begin to move into southeast michigan late tomorrow
night and across all of southeast michigan saturday. likely showers
blanket the majority of southeast michigan by late saturday morning
with a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of i-69. instability is
forecast to be rather weak keeping severe potential limited, but
some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible as bulk of
activity arrives during the day. main concern for saturday into
sunday will be the heavy rainfall potential. ensemble space still
supports a swath of 24 hour qpf of 0.75 to 1.5 inches saturday 12z
to sunday 12z. some of the recent hi-res guidance is allowing for a
little bit of a break in heavier precip potential late afternoon
into early evening as lead wave of showers and possible
thunderstorms weaken upon arrival before additional activity
reinvigorates along the frontal zone saturday evening into sunday.
the swath of heaviest precipitation has shifted a slightly and is
now focused along and west of i-75 from saginaw south to the greater
detroit metro region. a slight risk for excessive rainfall remains
in place for much of southeast michigan. precipitation chances
continue into monday with greater uncertainty in precipitation
chances into the middle portion of next week.

&&

.marine...

winds remain on the lighter side (<20kts) through the evening as the
southern edge of northern ontario high pressure slides overhead. a
secondary cold front drops through the region tonight-friday with
the main impact being a modest uptick in northeasterly winds (toward
20-25kts) over the southern half of lake huron. onshore flow likely
will warrant a period of small craft advisories along the thumb
friday. this front stalls over northern ohio before attempting to
lift back north saturday as plains low pressure arrives. front looks
to only push north of the southern great lakes before the system
tracks over lower mi resulting in predominant east-southeast turning
northeasterly winds this weekend. widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms are possible, mainly focused over the southern half of
the region. a moderate gradient, supporting ne/e gusts 20-30kts,
lingers behind the low sunday into the new work week as the area
holds between the stalled boundary over the ohio valley and high
pressure over northern ontario.

&&

.hydrology...

a low pressure system approaching from the plains with increasing
deep moisture will bring a pattern of heavy rain beginning early
saturday into sunday. expecting a widespread steady rain starting
saturday morning with scattered embedded thunderstorms. a high
probability exists for a swath of total rainfall between a half inch
to 2 inches over the course of saturday and sunday with a low chance
for some areas to see between 2-3 inches in a 24 to 36 hour period.
a potential lull in heavier precipitation saturday evening brings
some uncertainty to overall impacts, but there will be a chance for
flooding potential of low lying areas and urban areas, especially if
the higher amounts occur over a shorter period of time.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 112 pm edt thu sep 17 2026

aviation...

a stalled frontal boundary and large swath of low-level moisture
holds across southern michigan which has produced an extended period
of ifr cigs from kfnt south. latest trends show high pressure north
of this low level moisture working southward, which will result in
gradual lifting of ceiling heights and slow dissipation of cloud
cover. improving trends will take place from north to south and
initially has been slow to start, so have delayed improvement to vfr
conditions several hours until the evening hours, allowing the dry
air time to work into the region. high pressure will initially
strengthen the pressure gradient which will see a very subtle
increase in north to northeast flow as cig conditions improve.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast today or
tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......kdk
hydrology....aa
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.