Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
793
fxus61 kcle 071305
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
805 am est sat mar 7 2026

.what has changed...
confidence remains high on a line of showers and thunderstorms
moving east through the area late this morning and afternoon,
though the overall local severe threat remains rather uncertain.
an environment favorable for a few embedded tornadoes and
damaging winds will be in place if any stronger storms can
materialize.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front
late this morning and afternoon. some storms could become strong
to severe, particularly along and east of the i-71 corridor
between noon and 5 pm.

2) the next period of unsettled weather is expected tuesday
night through wednesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy
rain and perhaps a few stronger thunderstorms.


3) a clipper system will move east through the upper great lakes
on friday which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

the latest water vapor imagery reveals a strong mid-level
shortwave ejecting northeast into the midwest early this
morning, with ongoing pre-frontal convection located across
portions of missouri and illinois. the latest guidance suggests
this shortwave will strengthen further through this morning,
resulting in ~60 knots of 700 mb sw flow across the area by
early this afternoon.

there remains some uncertainty on the evolution of this
convection as it enters ohio by around mid- morning, though do
anticipate redevelopment as it encounters a more favorable
environment near the i-71 corridor by late morning/early
afternoon. probabilities for instability parameters from both
the refs/href (such as sbcape > 1000 j/kg) are considerably
higher than previous model runs, particularly east of the i-71
corridor. in addition, low-level hodographs also appear more
favorable not only in the 0-1 km layer as they did in last
night`s guidance, but now also up to 3 km which tends to suggest
a greater tornado potential in any stronger storms, especially
those with a north to south orientation given the sw shear
vectors.

the latest spc swody1 categorical risk remains unchanged, though
a 5% "hatched" tornado area has been introduced with this
morning`s update. do think the local risk for any significant
tornadoes (ef2+) is very low as the expected linear storm mode
would suggest more of an transient, embedded tornado and
damaging wind threat. however, this could change if storm mode
begins as discrete (stand alone from other storms) and will be
monitored. the timing window and location for strong to severe
storms remains relatively unchanged from previous forecasts -
generally along and east of the i-71 corridor between noon and 5
pm as storms move west to east through the area.

key message 2...

guidance continues to suggest a potent upper-level trough
developing across the upper midwest and great lakes wednesday
into thursday. at the surface, a low pressure system will slide
northeast through the midwest and eastern great lakes, extending
a strong cold front across the area wednesday night and ushering
in a much colder air mass into the region. probabilities remain
medium to high (50 to 70%) for much of the area to see at least
1 inch of rainfall tuesday night through wednesday as periods
of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms are appearing more
likely. will continue to monitor trends and potential impacts
from this system over the next several days.

above average temperatures mainly in the 60s to lower 70s will
persist into wednesday (with the brief exception of sunday with
highs in the 50s), falling into the upper 30s to low 40s behind
a cold front on thursday.

key message 3...
the latest guidance indicates a clipper system will move east
through the upper great lakes on friday into saturday which
could bring a rain/snow mix to the local area and gusty winds.
after brief high pressure on saturday, another system may
quickly develop towards the west saturday night into sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
the main concern for aviation weather impacts will be the slight
risk for strong to severe convecion to develop around midday for
nwoh and through the afternoon for neoh and nwpa. we tried to
highlight the timing for this broken line of strong convection
with 3 hour prob30 groups from west to east across the area.
generally 16z to 19z for nwoh and 19z to 21z for neoh and nwpa.

conditions are starting out this morning mainly with vfr across
northern ohio and nwpa. there will be likely be drops of
ceilings and visibilities with the broken lines of showers and
storms ahead of the cold front later today. the actual cold
front will move through this evening with some scattered
showers. conditions will become mvfr to lower end mvfr with
ceilings overnight. winds will be southerly southwesterly today
12 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 very possible ahead of
the cold front this morning through this afternoon. winds will
shift from the west tonight 8 to 12 knots tonight and the gusts
will gradually relax by late evening.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with scattered rain showers and
thunder with expected in low ceilings behind the cold front on
saturday night.

&&

.marine...
there are a couple weather systems in the next several days that may
bring some minor marine impacts to lake erie. the other ongoing
marine weather impact on lake erie is the substantial ice coverage
that continues to slowly decrease and break up. a cold front will
approach lake erie this evening from west to east. ahead of the cold
front today, southerly to southwesterly winds will increase 15 to 25
knots with gusts up to 30 knots. behind the front this evening and
overnight, winds will become westerly 10 to 15 knots. the stronger
wind flow over the lake today and the much warmer temperatures will
help further to weaken the ice coverage and also move it around this
weekend. wave heights will be limited by the aforementioned mobile
pack ice. high pressure will build into the great lakes sunday into
monday with a return of southwesterly 10 to 20 knots. the next
potential weather system to bring impacts to lake erie will the
middle of next week. forecast model guidance indicates the potential
for a deepening low pressure system and strong cold front tracking
across the eastern great lakes region wednesday through early
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez142>149-
162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
227
fxus63 kiwx 071046
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
546 am est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...

- a marginal risk of severe storms today with the primary
concern on isolated damaging wind gusts and secondary concern
of isolated large hail. confidence in severe weather is low at
this time, with higher confidence in isolated 40+ mph wind
gusts.

- dry weather returns for sunday and monday, but more showers
and storms expected for tuesday into wednesday. some severe
risk and a potential of heavy rain will need to be monitored
with this system.

- cooler temperatures return briefly today behind a cold front
but warm back to near 70 degrees for monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 234 am est sat mar 7 2026

a couple of convectively enhanced short waves will continue to lift
northeast across the mid/upper ms valley and western great lakes
this morning. meanwhile, a larger scale upper trough will continue
to get sheared and acquire a more positive tilt across the upper ms
valley allowing for eventual cold front progression across the area
this afternoon into early evening.

widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms continue this morning
from northern illinois into eastern missouri, tied more into pre-
frontal trough forcing/moisture axis. this convection has been
relatively loosely organized but several reports of 40-50 mph gusts
have come out of nw illinois and the quad cities area this morning
given strong background flow. the best shear/instability balance
appears to be continuing across southwest il including the st. louis
metro area this morning with some 40+ mph reports along a bow-like
feature. plenty of moisture in the warm sector with upstream dew
points in the low-mid 60s should get pulled northward this morning
via a strong low level jet which will support an mucape axis of 500-
1000 j/kg lifting across portions of northern in/northwest ohio
toward daybreak, also aided by some moderately steep 7-7.5 degree
mid level lapse rates. analysis of background shear profiles is
somewhat complicated by convectively enhanced nature of these
short waves, but given approach of this mucape axis and
sufficient shear, some isolated wind threat is possible this
morning in the 12z-17z time window and may be greatest south of
us 30 where instability may be maximized. with low lcls and
elongated hodographs in lowest few kilometers, can`t completely
rule out a brief weak tornado, particularly across eastern
locations where some better destabilization is possible before
pre-frontal trough feature exits early this afternoon , but
overall limited instability and potential of this morning`s
convection to be slightly elevated argues for mainly an isolated
wind threat through midday.

following departure of the pre-frontal trough, some additional
storms are expected to develop along associated cold front. near
term guidance continues to paint some different ideas in thermo
profiles along and near this cold front with some dependency on
extent of low level mixing. some mid level synoptic cooling is
possible this afternoon with lagging mid level frontal zone that
could yield a narrow corridor of 500-1000 j/kg of surface based
cape in vicinity of the cold front. if this type of instability
can be realized, cannot rule out an iso wind/hail threat with
the cold front, but this continues to be an item of low
confidence with the uncertainty in instability profiles by this
time.

otherwise today, windy conditions are expected to develop with wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph. passage of the cold front may also promote a
brief period of strong winds mixing to surface. highs are expected
in the mid-upper 60s today, but temps will fall this afternoon
across the west behind the cold front.

dry conditions return tonight through monday with focus shifting to
a larger scale synoptic system for the middle of next week. medium
range guidance has long been advertising a strong eastern pacific
net inducing upper trough amplification across the northern rockies
while at the same time strong moisture transport overspreads
great lakes/ohio valley downstream of a southern stream cut-off
upper trough. potential phasing of these systems and expected
strong downstream pre-existing baroclinic zone still argues for
keeping likely-categorical pops for later tuesday-wednesday
period. depending on track of low level features, some severe
threat may accompany this system along with a potential of some
heavy rainfall as initial frontal wave phase of this system
could be followed by stronger synoptic/cold frontal forcing on
wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 543 am est sat mar 7 2026

two rounds of rain and isolated storms will be possible, with
the best chances coming with this morning`s round. rain is
working into northwest indiana this morning with a few embedded
storms as well. in looking at lightning activity, i would expect
the greatest potential for embedded storms to be along and south
of us 30, including kfwa. the best chances for mvfr ceilings
and visibilities with showers and storms will be between now and
14-15z. there may be a brief resurgence in rain and storms this
afternoon with an incoming cold front between 18-22z.
confidence is lower on this afternoon round so have left those
chances mainly in prob30 groups for both terminals. southerly
wind will continue to frequently gust between 30-25 kts
throughout the day (maybe even as high as 30 kts at kfwa). winds
diminish after sunset tonight once the cold front is through
and will shift to be coming from the west.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
743
fxus63 kdtx 071148
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
648 am est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning,
with a second round likely along a cold front between 3pm and 7pm.
there is a marginal (1/5) risk of wind gusts to 60 mph with the
afternoon activity.

- warm and windy with southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph today.

- above average temperatures and breezy conditions are expected
sunday and monday.

- widespread precipitation late tuesday through wednesday. potential
exists for a wintry mix for parts of the area during this period.

&&

.aviation...

mvfr ceilings are expected to fill in after taf issuance from north
to south with moisture transport axis directed at southeast
michigan. thin axis of deep thetae with steep lapse rates between
7.0-15.0 kft agl will potentially lead to a 3 hour period for
showers and thunderstorm activity late this morning. well mixed
southwest flow will bring gusty southwest winds of 25 to 35 knots in
the wake of the morning convection. cold front then pushes through
southeast michigan between 21-24z with a low topped convective
environment bringing low confidence in coverage. prevailing mvfr
conditions tonight clearing out after 14z sunday.

for dtw...potential exists for thunderstorms between 14-17z. more
uncertainty with occurrence of showers and thunderstorm between 21-
24z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today and tonight.

* moderate for thunderstorms at dtw mid-morning to early afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 416 am est sat mar 7 2026

discussion...

a positively tilted trough is tracking into the western great lakes
with strong southwest flow ahead of it - upstream vwp data shows 50+
kt wind below 5 kft agl set to work in this morning. very mild air
has entrenched se mi with temps already in the mid to upper 50s, and
model soundings maintain a stable near-surface layer which should
hold most of the momentum aloft. a pocket of dense fog has re-
emerged off western lake erie as dew points in the 50s advect over
the frigid water. the local southeast wind is forecast to shift to
southwest over the next few hours which should mitigate prolonged
dense fog concerns. an area of pre-frontal showers and embedded
thunderstorms will spread into the local area between 7am and 1pm,
driven by a plume of deeper moisture accompanying a shortwave aloft.
model soundings suggest these will remain elevated as low-level
lapse rates and dcape remain weak, but there remains the potential
for some 40+ mph gusts to be dragged down with this activity.

a brief gap in showers is expected early this afternoon, but with
increasing gustiness as low-level lapse rates increase. this causes
temps to rise into the mid to upper 60s. latest data favors
background gusts peaking in the 30 to 40 mph range. as dew points
increase into the upper 50s, weak instability will develop which
will fuel a line of additional showers along the cold front this
afternoon 3pm to 7pm. overall sbcape is lean - below 500 j/kg -
which may limit lightning, but 0-6km bulk shear of 40 kt is
supportive of organized convection. if the cape can balance this
shear, convection will have the ability to drag the higher momentum
to the surface and gusts of up to 60 mph will be possible. se mi is
highlighted in a marginal (1/5) risk in the spc day 1 outlook,
driven by the 5% probability for damaging wind. a few hi-res runs
bring in dew points over 60f which seem aggressive but if this were
to happen confidence would be slightly higher in more vigorous
convection with sbcape over 500 j/kg.

cooler and drier air settles in behind the front, causing temps to
fall to the 30s overnight into sunday morning. a series of troughs
will track across northern ontario sunday into monday which induce a
period of warm advection over the great lakes. dry air and a lack of
forced ascent offer a precip-free forecast with potential for lots
of sunshine. a stout gradient will however produce breezy southwest
winds to around 30-35 mph each day. the warming trend sees highs in
the 50s on sunday and well into the 60s on monday.

tuesday into wednesday remains a period to monitor as a northern
stream trough amplifies over the northern rockies and phases with a
cutoff four corners low. broad synoptic scale ascent develops over
the midwest with a warm front developing somewhere in the vicinity
of the great lakes to northern ohio valley. this front may be a
focus for convection on tuesday and its placement will be determined
by the strength of northern ontario high pressure during this
period. low pressure then organizes along the baroclinic zone
extending westward into the midwest, tracking into the great lakes
to produce widespread precip on wednesday. the 07.00z guidance
favors warm solutions for much of se mi but with very close
proximity of a shallow cold surface layer maintaining potential for
a stripe of wintry mix in the north. colder air will follow this
system with a changeover to snow possible wednesday night.

marine...

areas of dense fog continues, especially across lake huron where a
warm front resides, with elevated near surface moisture producing
limited visibility to 1 nm or less. a marine dense fog advisory
remains in effect across lake huron and into the saginaw bay until
4pm est. passage of a cold front this morning will produce
widespread rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms. there will
be a low chance for an isolated strong to severe storm, capable of
producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots. additionally, non t-storm wind
gusts associated with the cold front will be capable of producing
some isolated gusts near 34 knots. given the brevity for gale
potential, will preclude the issuance of any gale products.

some additional low end chances for gust to gales will be possible
tomorrow morning and afternoon, but a near neutral thermal profile
brings low confidence if stronger winds aloft will make it to the
surface. a strong warm front then pushes through monday morning,
which will bring breezy southwest flow with gusts around 30 knots.

hydrology...

widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms track through the area
this morning with a second round of showers and storms likely along
a cold front later this afternoon. rainfall totals are most likely
to be a half inch or less but there is a 40% chance for localized
areas to receive an inch of rain today. this is in addition to the
0.50 to 1.50 inches most areas received in the past 24 hours. rises
on area rivers are occurring but the potential for flooding remains
low.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz361>363-421-
422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...tf
marine.......am
hydrology....tf


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