Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
416
fxus61 kcle 241415
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1015 am edt sun may 24 2026

.what has changed...
updated the forecast to bring showers in across the south faster
this morning. moisture advection is focused across the east
today and raised pops and qpf in this area. also lowered
temperatures along the northeast lakeshore as the flow shifts
off the lake this afternoon and in the east where coverage of
showers and clouds will be higher. locally heavy rain is
possible this afternoon with deep moisture through the column.
&&

.key messages...
1.) additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
late this afternoon and evening. locally heavy rain is
possible.

2) warmer and drier weather will return memorial day through
the middle of this week with above normal temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
weather conditions are starting out mostly rain free with mostly
cloudy skies. there are some patchy areas of fog across
northwest ohio this morning. a surface trough west of the area
will move across later this afternoon and evening. scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will move west to east across
the area. rainfall amounts will be light averaging around a
quarter of an inch. high temperatures will be in the lower to
middle 70s this afternoon. rain chances will gradually end from
west to west late this evening. some patchy fog may be possible
again late tonight through sunrise monday morning.

key message 2...
a change in the weather pattern will bring a return of warmer
and drier conditions starting tomorrow on memorial day. a weak
area of high pressure will build in across the eastern great
lakes on monday. skies will start off mostly cloudy monday
morning with clearing skies by the afternoon. high temperatures
for memorial day will climb into the middle 70s to near 80
degrees. an upper level ridge will develop over the north
central u.s. and western great lakes region through the middle
of this week. overall the rain chances will be minimum through
the middle of this week with chance pops possible by wednesday
afternoon. temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 80s
tuesday and wednesday. drier weather is expected for the end of
the week into the weekend as high pressure builds southward from
ontario and across the great lakes. temperatures will be near
seasonable average in the lower and middle 70s for the end of
this week.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
fairly widespread mvfr ceilings are observed across the region
with pockets of ifr/lifr ceilings and visibility across the
region. the patchy fog that impacted terminals to the west has
begun to dissipate and visibility has increased to at least ifr
and will continue to improve to mvfr over the next couple of
hours. rain showers will move into the region this afternoon,
though still anticipate mvfr ceilings with isolated reduced
visibilities. behind the cold front tomorrow morning, there is
potential for lowered visibility and ceilings within fog as high
pressure builds in.

winds across the region are generally light and variable with
any sustained winds coming out of the south-southeast. gusts at
keri will continue to dissipate through the morning. winds will
shift around from the south to the southeast with the rain
showers, then become westerly behind, still light at less than
10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible with lingering rain showers and lower
ceilings sunday night into monday morning. non-vfr possible
with rain showers on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
winds have subsided across the eastern basin of lake erie down to 5-
10 knots out of the south to southeast. today, a cold front will
pass across lake erie and winds will shift to be out of the north at
5-10 knots. light winds, at less than 10 knots, with waves 1 foot or
less are expected across the lake through wednesday evening as high
pressure builds into the region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10/77
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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578
fxus63 kiwx 241009
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
609 am edt sun may 24 2026

.key messages...

- showers expected (70-80%) later today. a few non-severe
thunderstorms will also be possible (20-30%).

- a few showers possible late tuesday through thursday, mainly
along and south of us-30. highest chances (30-60%) wednesday.

- above normal temperatures expected next week with highs
generally the low 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 317 am edt sun may 24 2026

overnight with the low level moisture (dew points in the mid
50s) have seen some patchy ground fog and mist develop with
several reported automated visibilities dropping to 2 to 3
miles. with the incoming disturbance moving eastward still over
il as seen on regional radar mosaic, anticipate an uptick in
moisture advecting from the south ahead of the system. this
could cause an increase in the mist and fog as this happens.
will continue to monitor conditions this morning. the almost
calm winds so far has mitigated the fog coverage and thickness
with lack of mixing.

this system will increase chances for rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms as the disturbance moves into the cwa this
morning. severe thunderstorms are not expected with these storms
with the very limited shear/forcing. there is a bit of
disagreement among guidance with how fast this disturbance moves
through and begins to clear out but the western portions of the
area should see the rain showers coming to an end after 2-3 pm
edt and areas further east would be several hours later. highs
today will top out in the 70s across the area.

with ridging pushing in behind today`s disturbance, memorial
day holiday is setting up to be a fairly decent day weather wise
with warmer temperatures (highs in the low 80s) and clearing
skies. may be a bit sticky for some as dew points will remain in
the 50s.tuesday looks to be in similar shape with just a few
degrees warmer for high temperatures and becoming slightly more
humid by tuesday afternoon (td`s in the low 60s) with moisture
pushing northward once again with a boundary set up just to the
south of the cwa gets displaced northward with a building
bermuda high. wednesday we see chances for showers/t-storms
across the area increase with this intrusion. a passing longwave trough
over eastern canada and the northeast does push back on this
moist airmass back to the south. a high amplitude ridge looks to
set up over the central conus and gets well up into central
canada by thursday. this will set up our area for a return to
dry conditions with high temperatures above to slightly above
normal into next weekend as this pattern is shaping up to be a
bit of an omega blocking set-up which will slow down the
progressive pattern.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 608 am edt sun may 24 2026

mvfr to ifr conditions expected at the taf sites this period,
with lifr possible this morning as moisture increases/advects
northward ahead of the incoming disturbance pushing eastward
into the region. cigs/vsbys drop with mist and ground fog
development. rain chances increase once again with the
approaching disturbance and also an increase in thunderstorm
potential after 12z for ksbn and after 15z at kfwa. winds shift
behind the system to the west- northwest, with ceilings lifting
towards mvfr/vfr in the later afternoon/evening. however, some
uncertainty with guidance disagreement in how fast the
improvements will arrive.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 241645
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1245 pm edt sun may 24 2026

.key messages...

- an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross the area
this afternoon.

- summer-like temperatures memorial day through wednesday, with low
chances for precipitation. this warm up will be followed by a cool
down and seasonable temperature late week and through next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

showers and scattered thunderstorms have gradually been approaching
the se mi terminals from the west. associated with an upper level
short wave forecast to cross se mi late this afternoon and evening,
the forcing has been a little faster than suggested by earlier model
solutions, causing the showers to outpace the elevated instability
axis a bit. this has resulted in a slight decrease in the lightning
activity upstream. there is still a potential for some instability
influx into the far southern portions of southern michigan in the
21z to 00z time frame. this will continue to warrant a chance for
thunderstorms across metro detroit late today. ifr and low end mvfr
based stratus has been very prevalent across se mi this morning,
trapped under a deep low level inversion. the higher instability
forecast to lift into the south later today will be driving by a
northward advancing warm front. with metro detroit possibly getting
impacted by the warm sector, more variability in ceiling heights are
possible this evening. farther north, mvfr based stratus is likely
to hold until late evening when a push of drier air arrives from the
west.

d21/dtw convection...an area of showers will move across the
airspace between 20z and 00z. scattered thunderstorms are expected
to be embedded within the broader area of showers.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today.

* low for thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 335 am edt sun may 24 2026

discussion...

cool, cloudy start to the day following the slow departure of
friday`s low. active pattern set to continue today as midwestern
troughing is quick to flow, lifting a warm front into se mi this
morning. the fairly diffuse accompanying gradient keeps
southwesterly winds on the lighter side however, limiting the
magnitude of warm advection and moisture transport into the area.
this is looking to result in both warmer temperatures (around 70)
and higher dewpoints (lower 60s) only able to reach up around the m-
59 corridor before the arrival of upstream convection early this
afternoon. several hundred j/kg of sbcape are progged to be in place
over these southern areas offering scattered thunderstorm chances
within the broader shower activity. given bulk wind shear values
creeping into the lower 30kt range, can`t completely rule out an
isolated strong cell however the marginal instability and weak lapse
rates (<6.5 c/km) will act to keep convection in check. for areas
north of m-59, sufficient instability will be difficult to come by
as dewpoints are favored to remain in the 50s with temperatures in
the mid 60s. this has been picked up on in the latest cam guidance
with a trend towards decaying showers on the northern flank.
lingering rain ends around 00-01z as the attendant weak cold front
clears the region.

high pressure rapidly builds over southern lower mi tonight
supporting clearing skies going into memorial day. high center
drifts over toledo to lake erie over the course of monday ushering
in light southwesterly return flow. in combination with sunnier
skies, highs return back to the upper 70s to mid 80s- warmest in the
tri-cities where the strongest waa is focused. an isolated pop-up
(thunder)shower is possible over the saginaw valley late afternoon-
evening as several hundred j/kg of mlcape develop. otherwise, dry
weather holds across the area through tuesday due to the influence
of high pressure. next chances for some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms arrive daytime wednesday as a backdoor cold
front sweeps out of lake huron through se mi. high pressure then
builds back in to close out the work week.

marine...

the low that passed over the region on saturday will pull away to
the east today but a mid level system will drive another front
through the region today resulting in a chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms for a few hours. winds will become southerly by
morning and southwesterly this afternoon behind the warm front.
gradient is weak thus winds are expected to hold at 10 knots or
less. high pressure then starts building into the region tonight
which will slowly pass eastward monday and tuesday keeping the
weather quiet with light winds and waves. the high will reach the
mid-atlantic coast by wednesday with the great lakes then residing
just north of a low over the ohio valley. a cold front will dropping
southward through the region late wednesday which could result in
some showers.

hydrology...

a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to track west to
east across the area this afternoon. most areas will receive under a
quarter inch of rainfall, but there will be the potential for some
areas to see up to 1 inch dependent on thunderstorms. this would be
most likely to occur south of m-59. overall dry conditions over the
past 30 days suggests the potential for flooding is low, aside from
typical isolated flood prone locations in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kdk
marine.......drk
hydrology....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.