Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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090
fxus61 kcle 012323
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
723 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

.what has changed...
no changes ere needed with this update as the forecast remains on
track for the cold front moving through the area tonight into
friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) a strong cold front will sink southeast across the area tonight
into friday bringing the chance for widespread showers.

2) fall returns late friday and persists into next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front has lifted north of the area today, allowing for
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s with
dewpoints increasing into the 60s. these conditions will prime
the area for widespread shower development ahead and along a
cold front that is expected to sag southeast across the area
tonight into friday. this robust surface front will be enhanced
with strong mid- and upper-level energy as a trough extends
across much of the contiguous us. a strong upper level jet
pushing over the region coupled with mid-level vort max will be
the primary synoptic forcing with strong low-level frontogenetic
forcing. the showers should develop into a line and push east
overnight resulting in a widespread 0.5 to 1 inch of
precipitation. given the dry conditions recently, no flooding is
expected. in addition, the thunderstorm potential remains low
given the unfavorable timing, but cannot be ruled out given the
strong synoptic forcing. finally, gusty southwest winds ahead
of the front will back to northwesterly behind the front. this
strong boundary will result in highs only climbing into the low
to mid 60s.

key message 2...
behind the departing cold front on friday, a canadian high pressure
will push east over the great lakes region and bring with it much
cooler temperatures and dry conditions. there is expected to be a
weak cold front pushing east on sunday, however limited forcing and
moisture should keep conditions dry across the area. on monday, a
dominant high returns and will persist into at least the middle of
the week. this pattern will allow for dry conditions beginning
friday night to persist into the middle of next week. high
temperatures will climb into the 60s before some highs in the
50s creep into nwpa early next week. overnight lows will be in
the upper 30s to low 40s. may need to monitor for the potential
of frost next week.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
widespread rain showers are expected late tonight into friday
morning as a cold front pushes east across the region. areawide
vfr cigs/vis will reduce to mvfr vis and ifr cigs in rain
showers and br. conditions will gradually improve late friday
morning/friday afternoon behind the frontal passage.

southerly to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots continue this
evening ahead of the cold front. there may be some lingering
occasional gusts to 18-20 knots through tonight. behind the
front, winds shift northwesterly to northerly while remaining
between 5-10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely with rain showers and lower ceilings
behind a cold front late tonight through late friday morning.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon will quickly shift
to north-northwesterly behind a cold front that will sag south
across the lake tonight. with this frontal passage, winds are
expected to increase to 15-20 knots and persist into friday
night. given onshore flow, waves across the central basin are
expected to climb to 3-5 feet. as a result, a small craft
advisory remains in effect for tonight into early friday
morning. behind this cold front, high pressure will briefly
build over the region allowing for a calm period of conditions
before a weak cold front moves east on sunday. with this second
cold front, winds will once again increase from the north-
northwest at 15-20 knots and will likely build waves in excess
of 4 feet across the southern lakeshore beginning sunday night
into monday. an additional short-fused small craft advisory may
be needed during this period as well. by monday night into
tuesday, high pressure will become well established across the
area and should allow for calmer marine conditions to return.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 am edt
friday for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...13
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 012322
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
722 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

.key messages...

- rain and isolated thunderstorms this evening through mid-
morning friday. rainfall totals on either side of 1 inch.

- notably cooler friday through the weekend with highs in the
60s.

- very crisp tuesday morning with lows in the 30s (70% chance).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 202 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

warm, breezy, with increasing clouds for the remainder of the day
followed by rain and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front sags
southeast. excellent moisture return from the gulf is evident on
water vapor, as anticyclonic flow off a southeast us ridge funnels
moisture poleward against a low swirling over the ok panhandle.
forecast soundings overnight depict an impressive warm-cloud layer
of 12,000 ft, indicative of a moisture-rich atmosphere. boundary-
parallel flow through the column will limit the front`s forward
speed. as a result, fairly high confidence in rainfall amounts
tonight through late-morning friday on either side of 1". some high-
resolution ensembles have a few stripes of 2" totals which is
certainly possible from any isoalted thunderstorms that bubble up.
yet overall, with 10-day observed rainfall of less than 0.50", the
general feeling is that the forecast area can handle this rainfall.
we can address any near-term flood concerns with flood advisories as
needed.

circling back to thunder for a moment, the best time for an isoalted
thunderstorm is from about 4pm to 10pm edt when a narrow ribbon of
instability is maximized; still shy of 1,000 j/kg. tonight`s rain
looks to be primary rain event for the next seven days. low pressure
through ontario threatens to bring showers sunday to central and
northern michigan, while a second system takes a similar path late
next week.

sharply cooler behind the front resulting in highs friday through
the weekend only in the 60s with canadian high pressure moving in.
as mentioned here this morning, tuesday morning looks absolutely
crisp with lows in the 30s. advertised lows could be 2 to 3 degrees
on the cold side of available guidance (shy of the 25th percentile),
but within the realm of possibility. fear not, as temperatures appear
poised to rebound late in the week as upper-level troughing moves
east.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 722 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

cold front slowly progressing across the area and will bring
widespread moderate rain overnight. ifr ceilings are likely for
much of the overnight period based on latest guidance and
upstream obs which show ceilings around 500ft. a stray
thunderstorm can`t be entirely ruled out at kfwa but chances are
too low to include in the taf. rapid improvement expected friday
morning with return to vfr and clearing skies by the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am to 11 pm edt friday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 012348
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
748 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

.key messages...

- coverage and intensity of showers increase across se michigan
tonight.

- there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall until showers end
with the passage of a cold front friday morning.

- low temperatures are projected to reach the mid to upper 30s north
of metro detroit by saturday morning.

- cool temperatures continue through the weekend.

- there is a low chance for a short period of light rain sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a feed of deep along a cold front that is currently tracking
southward through southeast michigan will continue to bring
extensive cloud coverage and rainfall. mvfr and isolated ifr
conditions are focused along the front that will drift into the metro
terminals towards 03z. expect a few hours of light to moderate
intervals of rainfall and potential ifr conditions before ceilings
and visibility improves. light showers may linger behind the front
through 12z with nnw winds taking over behind the front and holding
through tomorrow. predominately vfr conditions expected tomorrow with
sct/bkn clouds down to around 3500 feet being supported in the
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...low potential for thunderstorms through this
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 feet this evening.

* low for thunderstorms this evening and overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm edt thu oct 1 2026

discussion...

a broad band of showers spans the central great lakes and extends
into the central plains this afternoon. it is on schedule to migrate
across the rest of se mi tonight while gaining intensity along and
near the cold front that is already moving into central lower mi at
forecast issuance. the rainband is sharpened by frontogenesis in the
low to mid levels as the mid/upper level trough and jet entrance
region move eastward into a more complementary position that is
reflected in model depictions of notable 850-700 mb theta-e gradient
increase across the frontal zone. the same theta-e projections show
the mature moisture axis also still tapping a hybrid tropical
pacific/gulf supply and feeding it into the great lakes along and
ahead of the frontal zone. at least a brief period of heavier rain
occurs in this setup as the 12z dtx sounding measured pw near 1.8
inches and as href and refs mean pw touches 2 inches as the system
moves through se mi tonight. otherwise, the steady nw to se pace of
the frontal passage limits flooding potential until the pattern
exits early friday morning.

expansive surface high pressure settling into the northern plains
today builds aggressively into the great lakes during the day
friday. it brings an air mass that is cool enough to produce
scattered to broken cumulus during the afternoon which becomes dry
enough for a rapid clearing trend friday evening. radiational
cooling then wins out over any lingering light north wind and/or
thin cirrus during the night. guidance low temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s look good north of metro detroit by saturday morning.

the larger scale westerlies stay progressive during the weekend with
a model consensus on the next low pressure system arriving in
northern ontario sunday. the trailing cold front might be capable of
a stray shower as it sweeps through the great lakes while high
pressure traps gulf moisture near the coast to mid atlantic. the
front ushers in a new round of high pressure and below normal
temperatures as the weather highlight for early next week.

marine...

widespread rain associated with a cold front will slowly push
southward across lake huron tonight before exiting southeast of lake
erie late friday morning. post frontal shallow cold air advection
along the lead edge of expansive high pressure over the northern
plains will result in increasing north-northwest winds during the
night into friday. available guidance suggests moderate to high
probability for wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots across the open waters
of lake huron. this will also help drive hazardous conditions to
small craft across the lake huron nearshore waters tonight and
friday. the high pressure system will expand across the great lakes
region friday night into saturday, resulting in light winds. the
rapid eastward departure of this high by sunday will drive another
frontal system into the region by the end of the weekend. this front
will be moisture starved and generally weak, limiting weather
conditions to just light rain chances. its passage will be marked by
a veering of the winds from south to west-northwest. some uptick in
the winds is expected over lake huron within the post frontal cold
air advection. available guidance indicates the winds remaining
below gales.

hydrology...

a large band of showers moves across se mi while gaining intensity
with the passage of a cold front tonight. the band has access to a
tropical pacific and gulf moisture supply that fuels brief periods
of heavy rain within the more persistent band. there is high
confidence in rainfall totals up to 1 inch and medium confidence in
totals of 1 to 2 inches during a 3 to 9 hour period. the low-end
chance for totals to reach or exceed 2 inches requires a frontal
passage that would be slower than projected at this point in the
forecast. this scenario limits potential flooding to minor instances
in low-lying areas with ponding water on roads across the region
until the rain quickly ends post-front friday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt friday for lhz421-443.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...bt
marine.......sc
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.