Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 am edt mon may 11 2026

.what has changed...
a frost advisory remains in effect for inland ashtabula,
trumbull, and mahoning counties in ne oh and crawford and
southern erie counties in nw pa until 8 am edt this morning. our
low temperature forecast has trended colder for tuesday morning.
a frost advisory or freeze warning will likely be need for most
of our cwa. the rest of the forecast is essentially unchanged.

&&

.key messages...
1.) below-average temperatures, overall, are expected through
this thursday night. frost remains a concern this morning and
overnight tonight into tuesday morning.

2.) unsettled weather, including periodic thunderstorms,
returns tuesday evening through thursday.

3.) a warming trend is expected on friday through monday, may
18th.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the
north-central united states and vicinity through tonight and
then crests e`ward across our region on tuesday. mainly dry
weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
ridge. net low-level caa persists through tonight, which will
contribute to continued below-average temperatures. highs late
this afternoon are expected to reach only the 50`s to lower
60`s. mainly clear sky, weak or calm surface winds, and low
humidity accompanying the ridge will promote efficient
radiational cooling this evening through daybreak tuesday, when
lows are expected to reach the lower to mid 30`s across much of
our cwa, inland from lake erie. frost formation is expected in
nw pa and much of northern oh, inland from the lake. many of our
zones will likely require a frost advisory or freeze warning.
will let the day shift reevaluate this potential. as our region
becomes located along the western flank of the ridge at the
surface and aloft on tuesday, net low-level waa will develop
across northern oh and nw pa. even so, increasing cloud cover
amidst moist isentropic ascent, ahead of a trough axis aloft
that will approach from the upper midwest and vicinity, will
contribute to highs reaching the upper 50`s to upper 60`s. this
increasing cloud cover may produce sprinkles over and very near
lake erie around sunset tuesday evening.

the ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward tuesday night
through wednesday night as the aforementioned trough aloft
overspreads our region as its axis moves from the upper midwest
to near lake ontario and the central appalachians. at the
surface, the attendant low should wobble ese`ward from the
northwestern great lakes to northeastern ny, which should allow
a surface warm front to sweep ne`ward across our cwa tuesday
night before a surface cold front sweeps e`ward through our
region wednesday through wednesday night. behind the cold front,
a surface ridge builds from the north-central united states
through thursday night, while the mid/upper-level portion of
this ridge should begin to build from the west by thursday
night.

net low-level waa ahead of the warm front and within the warm
sector will contribute to overnight lows reaching the upper
40`s to mid 50`s tuesday night. abundant cloud cover associated
with the low pressure system should limit daytime highs to the
lower to mid 60`s on wednesday, ahead of the cold front. net
low-level caa behind the cold front should contribute to lows
reaching the 40`s around daybreak thursday and friday,
respectively. highs should reach only the 50`s to lower 60`s
late thursday afternoon.

key message 2...
periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, are expected tuesday
night through wednesday due to the following: isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front tapping into abundant
moisture originating over the southern gulf stream and gulf;
convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold front; moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the cold front.
occasional thunderstorms are expected tuesday evening through
early wednesday evening as weak cape, including elevated cape,
is released by the aforementioned lifting mechanisms. during
wednesday night into early thursday, precip is expected to
transition to lake-enhanced/effect rain over and generally
southeast of lake erie, especially central and eastern portions
of the lake, as a primarily nw`erly mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air becomes established over/downwind
of the ~12c lake, at least weak lake-induced cape forms, and the
seeder-feeder process occurs at times amidst a sufficiently-
cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column ahead of shortwave
trough axes embedded in the aforementioned trough aloft. between
daybreak and nightfall on thursday, lingering lake-effect rain
showers should end from west to east and give way to dry weather
region-wide by thursday night as lake-induced cape wanes via
low-level dry air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion
accompanying the ridge that will build from the north-central
united states and vicinity.

key message 3...
a warming trend is expected this friday through monday, may 18th
as our region becomes located within a net low-level waa regime,
along the western flank of the aforementioned ridge at the
surface and aloft. moderating temperatures should include
daytime highs moderating from the 60`s and 70`s on friday to
the 80`s on monday. periodic showers and thunderstorms are
possible daily, especially during the afternoon through early
evening hours, as a low-level return flow of moist air
originating over the gulf becomes established, the boundary
layer destabilizes via daytime heating each day, and multiple
shortwave troughs embedded in the primarily sw`erly flow aloft
and attendant surface trough axes traverse our region.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions continue across the airspace with high pressure
building into the region. some mid-level clouds are spreading
into the area from the northwest and will move through most of
the terminals through the afternoon. some ceilings may lower
closer to 5 kft, but all ceilings should be vfr. the moisture
supporting these clouds will leave the region by evening and
allow for fairly clear conditions. winds will be light through
the period with flow of 10 kts or less. wind direction should
eventually favor some sort of northerly component in the next
few hours. winds will switch to southerly tonight.

outlook...non-vfr expected in showers and thunderstorms late
tuesday through wednesday with lingering rain and low ceilings
through thursday. non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms on friday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue building from the northwest today and
allow for light northerly flow on the lake. this high will shift
east on tuesday and allow for light easterly flow on the lake. the
main window for lake impacts will be from tuesday night through
thursday with a low pressure system moving through the region. this
system will enter the northwest great lakes on tuesday afternoon and
extend a warm front across the lake on tuesday night. strong
southwest flow is expected to develop over the lake on tuesday night
with 15 to 25 kts of flow and a small craft advisory may be needed.
the low will move southeast toward the lake on wednesday and allow
for westerly flow of 10 to 20 kts across the basin. this low will
extend a cold front across the lake on wednesday night and 15 to 20
kts northwest flow will become favored behind the feature. these
elevated northwest winds will continue into thursday. with the
stronger onshore flow, some elevated waves of 3 to 4 ft are possible
and there is a non-zero chance for a small craft advisory,
especially if winds trend higher. high pressure will enter the
region for thursday night into friday. northerly flow will trend
lighter for thursday night before shifting to light southerly flow
for friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for ohz014-023-033.
pa...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
625 am edt mon may 11 2026

.key messages...

- frost most possible tuesday morning north of the toll road.

- showers and scattered thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and
evening. the threat for widespread severe weather is low.

- warm to end the work week, but rain will also be possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt mon may 11 2026

calm conditions prevailed early this morning across the forecast
area under weak high pressure. chilly air had settled over the
region with temperatures dipping below 40 degrees in spite of a
band of mid clouds drifting north. highs today will only make it
to around 60 to 65 degrees with the cool air in place. the
stage will then be set for frosty conditions tonight. after
collaboration with surrounding offices, have deferred the
issuance on any frost headlines to the day shift. at this time,
low temperatures north of highway 30 are expected to fall to
between 36 and 39 degrees tonight.

after tonight, moisture will surge north and northeast ahead of
a cold front. gfs bufkit sounding indicate very dry low and mid
levels. am concerned the blended pops are too high early tuesday
afternoon given the dry layers. moisture flux will rapidly
increase late tuesday with precipitable water values soaring to
between 1.20" and 1.25". while this scenario does not support
widespread flooding with mean storm motion 240/40 kts, any right
movers could quickly become strong to marginally severe, especially
west of highway 31. wind gusts from 50 to 60 mph are likely with
the strong storms.

after the bout with strong to severe storms, there will be a
short break wednesday through thursday before the pattern
becomes active again. showers and storms are a good bet late
this week into early next week. there is a better chance for
heavy rain this weekend given high precipitable water values
per gfs of 1.50 to 1.70 inches.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 615 am edt mon may 11 2026

a mid/upper level trough dropping east-southeast across the
southern lake mi vicinity will depart to the east later this
morning taking some associated mid level clouds out of the area.
synoptic scale subsidence will dominate in wake of this upper
trough for this afternoon into tonight with just some low
coverage diurnal vfr cu expected this afternoon. an incoming low
level anticyclone will result in initially north-northeast winds
to back to the north-northwest this afternoon generally at 10
knots or less. however, may need to watch for a brief period of
some stronger north wind gusts at ksbn to around 20 knots this
afternoon as low level anticyclone will likely get some
enhancement from still cold lake michigan waters. winds to
become light and variable this evening as this anticyclone
settles across the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
450 am edt mon may 11 2026

.key messages...

- frost is likely again tonight.

- numerous to widespread showers with a rumble of thunder move in
tuesday afternoon and night.

- a warming trend carries temperatures above normal heading into
next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

sct-bkn mid-level clouds (6-12 kft) persist today, remaining longest
over the southern taf sites. light northerly winds will maintain dry
low levels; however, flow off lake huron is expected to develop some
lower clouds this afternoon, especially over the southern terminals
(ptk/dtw/yip/det). these clouds should remain above 5000 feet. the
loss of daytime heating and high pressure overhead will lead to
clear skies and near-calm winds tonight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 355 am edt mon may 11 2026

discussion...

great lakes weather is strongly influenced by cool central canadian
to midwest high pressure that moves overhead this afternoon and then
drifts eastward tonight. the surface high makes a more aggressive
move into lower mi after the larger scale mid level trough moves
eastward. the catalyst for progression is the passage of a small but
intense mid level circulation that moves overhead this morning. this
system is tapping the low to mid level theta-e gradient associated
with the ohio valley frontal remnants to bolster mid level cloud
production. a few sprinkles are also in play toward the ohio border
during the morning while the clouds linger with enough coverage to
substantially delay the diurnal heating influence on temperatures.
guidance max temps in the 50s look reasonable with the tri cities
down to i-69 having a chance to overachieve as sun breaks out
toward afternoon.

tonight starts out with high pressure centered over lower mi and a
pronounced 500 mb short wave ridge in place just west of lake mi.
confluent flow aloft forces deep subsidence across the central great
lakes leading to a higher confidence scenario for clear sky compared
to recent nights until cirrus arrives toward sunrise. the clear sky
and calm wind set up efficient radiational cooling and high
likelihood for another round of frost across the region except for
the immediate detroit area.

eastward departing high pressure and increasing clouds tuesday
morning are signs the next low pressure system is on schedule to
bring showers in by afternoon. this system is still moving out of
the canadian rockies this morning, however there is good agreement
among the 00z model runs that show the system benefiting from lee
side cyclogenesis and upstream longwave amplification today and
tonight. the strengthening process puts the system in good position
to accelerate northward transport of gulf modified air into
isentropic ascent along and ahead of the low track. general thunder
is supported by 850 mb li dropping to around 0c in weak elevated
instability across lower mi, ahead of the surface warm front still to
our west by 00z wednesday. the surface low and frontal system then
quickly move through the central great lakes tuesday night while the
500 mb trough attempts to close off over southern ontario. this trend
in the models is less progressive and maintains a cold core upper
trough/low influence over the central great lakes during wednesday.
mid may daytime heating then supports at least scattered showers over
se mi wednesday afternoon and evening.

despite the slower progression of the wednesday system, the late
week is still a transition period for the larger scale mid to upper
level pattern. extended range deterministic and ensemble systems
show good agreement on a solution that shows the mean flow shifting
from a high amplitude long wave trough over the great lakes and ne
states to more of a zonal configuration from coast to coast. the
height rises even into "just" a zonal flow add confidence to a
meaningful warming trend for the great lakes heading into the
weekend. a flip to above normal temperatures well into the 70s comes
at the expense of predictability on precipitation systems made
difficult by fast moving short waves within the larger scale zonal
flow.

marine...

high pressure influence holds over the region today and tonight
while maintaining light marine winds. next low is set to sweep
across the great lakes late tuesday bringing widespread showers and
a few chances for thunderstorms mainly over the southern great
lakes. in advance of the system, southerly winds strengthen though
with ongoing warm advection, thermal stability over the waters caps
peak gusts around 30kts. moderate nnw winds follow wednesday as
cooler air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing
gradient holds wind under 30kts. high pressure briefly follows to
close out the work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory until 7 am edt this morning for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...bt
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.