Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
654
fxus61 kcle 272353
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
753 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

.what has changed...
a line of broken showers has developed across the eastern portion of
the area. this convection should remain sub-severe into the evening
before departing east.

&&

.key messages...
1) a cold front will keep scattered showers across the eastern part
of the area through this evening.

2) above average temperatures return next week with highs once again
expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front extending roughly from erie, pa southwest to marion, oh
has become the focus for light rain showers developing this
afternoon. a few rumbles of thunder may develop this afternoon as
additional daytime heating increases instability, however given the
overall weak environment across the area, not expecting any of these
to turn severe. behind the aforementioned boundary, an expansive
diurnal cu field has developed, but given limited moisture not
expecting any showers. conditions should dry out by tonight with the
exception for portions of the snowbelt that may get isolated lake
enhanced showers into friday morning.

key message 2...
high pressure is expected to begin to build east into the area on
friday, becoming the dominant weather pattern by saturday. this high
will persist into early next week and should allow for a prolonged
period of dry conditions across northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. in addition, this high will be responsible for
temperatures once again climbing to above average by late this
weekend into early next week. highs are expected to once again climb
into the upper 80s to low 90s with max heat indices in the mid 90s.
overnight lows will remain warm with temperatures only dropping into
the upper 60s to low 70s. a mid week system may impact the area,
ultimately allowing for temperatures to return to near normal by mid
to late week, but given model variations the confidence in the
timing of this is fairly low.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions will generally prevail through friday as a large
dome of canadian high pressure builds from the upper midwest
tonight to over the ohio valley by friday evening. the exception
will be pockets of mist and fog that could impact kfdy, kmfd,
kcak, and kyng late tonight and early friday morning, with less
of a chance at ktol. trended visibilities slightly lower
(around 3sm), but confidence in ifr or lower visibilities is
still low. any fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise with
just some scattered cumulus in the afternoon.

light w to nw winds this evening will gradually veer to ne late
tonight, with ne winds of 5-10 knots expected late friday
morning through the afternoon.

outlook...mainly vfr, but with patchy non-vfr possible in
fog/mist early in the mornings on saturday and sunday.

&&

.marine...
west northwest flow of 5-15 knots on lake erie will decrease
this evening then veer to northeasterly overnight at 5-15 knots.
conditions will be somewhat choppy friday morning with waves of
1 to 3 feet and onshore flow. winds drop off quickly though as
high pressure builds overhead and no advisories are expected.
there will be a low end threat of waterspouts overnight as this
trough crosses lake erie.

good marine conditions are forecast for this weekend with winds
of generally 10 knots or less. a warm front lifts north on
sunday night and southwesterly winds increase into the 5-15
knots at times for monday and tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...garuckas
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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442
fxus63 kiwx 272238
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
638 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry the remainder of the afternoon with just a low
chance (10-15%) of a shower.

- seasonable temperatures continue today through saturday, but then
warming and more humid conditions return early next week.

- low chance of showers and thunderstorms return late
weekend/early next week but confidence is low.

- there is a moderate swim risk today for southeast lake
michigan beaches.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 123 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

a rogue shower remains possible through sunset as one more weak
wave passes through the area and interacts with limited
instability (less than 1000 j/kg mucape) and little overall
shear.

otherwise, an extended dry period is possible into next week with
the greatest confidence existing through this weekend on this
occurring. the upper level flow will flatten somewhat and transition
more sw to ne into early next week then more west to east as a
strengthening upper level ridge pushes north. with the ridge axis
remaining south of the region, this still leads to some uncertainty
with regards to weak waves that will pass through the flow. the flow
will reside far enough west into sunday to keep precip chances west
of the area with maybe some slightly better chances for a few
showers or storms during the work week. forecast will remain riddled
with periods of slgt chc to chc pops especially next week as models
struggle to handle each of the waves.

regarding temperatures and humidity, seasonable highs in the lower
80s and somewhat lower humidity settles in for friday and saturday.
warmer and more humid air begins to push back in with highs in the
mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s sunday
into next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 635 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

tranquil weather continues through the taf forecast period with
high pressure building over the midwest. northwest winds
sustained between 5 to 10 kts relax after sunset this evening,
becoming light and variable overnight. skies will be mostly
clear overnight into tomorrow with just a few clouds overhead.
patchy fog is possible between 06-12z friday, but opted to leave
any mention out of the tafs now given low confidence in any
impacts below vfr at the terminals.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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286
fxus63 kdtx 280351
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1151 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

.key messages...

- seasonable temperatures through saturday with mainly dry
conditions.

- a warming trend lifts temperatures above normal sunday through the
middle of next week with increasing chances for showers and
storms.

&&

.aviation...

a weak sfc cold front which moved across se mi this evening will
weaken toward daybreak as high pressure expands across the region
during the day friday. some residual moisture may support few vfr
based clouds into the early morning. based on model soundings and
the moisture profile, sct to perhaps brief bkn vfr based diurnal
clouds is expected friday afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no convection is forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 346 pm edt thu aug 27 2026

discussion...

height rises are underway this afternoon as a departing shortwave
flattens and gets absorbed downstream into the longwave trough/upper
low parked over hudson bay. meanwhile, the next embedded speed max
carves through northern michigan this evening and overnight,
reversing geopotential height trends. weak cva is evident in mid
level progs which could provide sufficient ascent atop shallow
boundary-layer saturation. this might spur a few light
showers/sprinkles into the early overnight hours, mainly over the
thumb where moisture parameters are more favorable. prior to 20z a
lone meso-gamma scale shower (or virga) was noted per kdtx
reflectivity data.

surface high pressure centers over the upper midwest and mid-
mississippi valley converge on lower michigan friday with weakening
northerly flow in the wake of a secondary cold front. this helps
offset high temperatures by a couple of degrees, near or slightly
below 80f as 850 mb temperatures briefly dip into single digit
territory (celsius). high pressure quickly exits across the eastern
great lakes friday night with return flow resulting in gradient
winds flipping southwesterly. a shorter wavelength southern stream
ridge moves across the plains on saturday. dry conditions continue
another day, while a warming trend also gets underway saturday which
should last into the first half of next week. warm advection and
isentropic ascent-driven showers could develop as early as sunday
morning with higher confidence in occurrence for areas north of i-
96. the ridge axis amplifies and centers over the state on monday.
precipitation chances will then be governed by mcs activity until
mid-week as a muggy and unstable air mass situates in the vicinity.

marine...

a weak secondary cold front is in the process of sinking south
through the central great lakes this evening. frontal passage brings
no real changes to current conditions aside from shifting winds to a
more northerly component. high pressure becomes established over the
region late this evening resulting in diminishing winds and waves.
said high then drifts overhead friday into early saturday
maintaining lighter winds and quiet weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.