Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
303
fxus61 kcle 090737
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
237 am est mon feb 9 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast overall this morning.
still on track to be above freezing tuesday for the first time
in over a couple of weeks for most in our cwa.

&&

.key messages...
1)lake effect/cold air advection snow is possible across
portions of the snowbelt tuesday evening into wednesday night.

2)not as cold/closer to normal temperatures for this time of
year for the end of the week through the next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
high pressure is departing to the east today and tonight,
finally allowing for some return flow into the region, enhanced
by low pressure that will traverse the northern great lakes.
expecting a warm front tuesday morning, the warm up to above
freezing temperatures, and then a cold front tuesday evening.
despite ice-covered lake erie, light lake effect snow showers in
the wake of the cold front will be possible, aided by saturated
low levels and cold air advection occurring as well. pops are on
the expansive side in the snow belt, but low, and qpf/snow
amounts will be quite low as well.


.key message 2...
high pressure moves in for the end of the week and into the
weekend, prior to low pressure forming over the lower
mississippi valley with a warm front extending northeastward
into the ohio valley. pops on the increase late saturday through
sunday as the surface low moves towards the mid atlantic coastal
region.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions are seen across the region as skies are clear.
ceilings at around 10kft will move in from the west by around
15-18z and over the eastern terminals by 22-23z. winds will be
light and variable through the first part of the period, then
becoming predominately out of the southeast at around 5 knots by
this morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in snow showers across ne oh and nw
pa tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains nearly completely ice-covered. winds remain out of
the east-southeast at 10 knots or less today into tonight. winds
shift south-southwest and increase to 10-15kt late tonight into
early tuesday ahead of a cold front, shifting west-northwest at 15-
20kt behind the front late tuesday into wednesday. west-northwest
winds gradually slacken on thursday into friday. ice will be prone
to some movement east of the lake erie islands this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...cold weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...23
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
241
fxus63 kiwx 090655
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
155 am est mon feb 9 2026

.key messages...

- quiet weather is expected this week with highs generally in
the 30s supporting a gradual melt of existing snowpack.

- the next chance of precipitation is not until late saturday
into sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 155 am est mon feb 9 2026

a welcome reprieve from active winter weather is still on schedule
for this week. persistent ne conus troughing will finally shift
eastward a bit, allowing large western conus ridge to fold over the
great lakes. strong waa is expected for a time later today into
early tue that may push temps to near 40f (though deep snowpack and
ample mid/upper clouds will temper that warm air quite a bit). the
pattern thereafter becomes one of split mid/upper level flow with
broad northern stream ridging over much of the country with a more
active southern stream staying largely south of our area. this split
flow pattern with some residual negative height anomalies over
quebec (and residual snowpack here locally) will keep temps a touch
on the cool side of climo, especially wed and thu with one more shot
of cool, northwest flow behind tuesday`s dry cold front. however, it
will not be as cold as the past few weeks and more importantly,
there are few, if any, chances for snow. south bend has recorded
snow in 25 of the last 30 days while fort wayne has recorded snow in
22 of the last 30 days, which hasn`t happened since the very busy
winter of 2013-2014. a weak shortwave pushes into the area thu night
with our next (very low) chance for snow but current indications are
for a weak wave that gets sheared out and encounters an increasingly
dry/stable environment over our region. maintained low nbm pop`s in
the far west but these may get removed entirely if trends continue
and even if it does snow, amounts will be very light. much better
chance for substantive precip with southern stream trough over the
weekend but still a lot of guidance members keeping this precip
south of our cwa and thermal profiles are warm enough that much of
it could be rain. will keep an eye on this period but obviously
still plenty of time to nail down the details. overall, a quiet week
with a slow melt of existing snowpack.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1214 am est mon feb 9 2026

a curious, narrow band of stratus spans from wisconsin to south
carolina. influenced by a sharp eddy tracking through mo and an
upper-level trough spilling onshore of the pacific northwest,
this area of stratus is slowly spreading east and south. as a
result, high confidence in bkn to ovc skies within the critical
taf period. how long this persists is uncertain. time height
cross sections indicate a subsidence inversion will ease this
afternoon allowing for few/sct skies. wind less than 10 knots
today with high pressure over the eastern great lakes.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
511
fxus63 kdtx 090800
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 am est mon feb 9 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance for light freezing rain and sleet tonight,
mainly north of the interstate 69 corridor.

- temperatures will warm to near 40 tuesday, then colder
temperatures and dry weather will prevail through the end of the
week.

&&

.discussion...

it will be yet another cold start to the day as early morning temps
will primarily be in the single digits across se mi. the eastward
departure of a low level anticyclone to the east will open the door
to southerly flow today, which will begin a period of warm air
advection into se mi. increasing mid/high clouds during the course
of the afternoon and a residual southeasterly component to the
surface winds will hold high temps in the 20s across the forecast
area.

a fast moving mid level short wave impulse tracking across the
northern plains and into the western great lakes tonight and the
ageostrophic response within the exit region of an inbound upper jet
streak will drive a broad region of good system relative isentropic
ascent across lower mi tonight. the stronger and more persistent
ascent is forecast across northern michigan. limited moisture depth
and a shorter period of ascent will support a dry forecast across
the southern half of the forecast tonight. ensemble members diverge
as to whether or not the ascent will be enough to generate precip
across the northern half of the forecast area. while the 00z nam and
canadian are suggestive of high pops and relatively low qpf, several
hi res solution remain dry. in light of the strength of the mid level
warm air advection, chance type pops remain justified. probabilistic
guidance is a bit higher across the thumb, warranting high chance to
likely pops in this area. the nose of a 50-60 knot 925mb jet will
lift into srn lower mi tonight, driving a respectable elevated warm
layer across the forecast area. given the sub freezing boundary
layer, any precip that falls will be sleet or freezing rain. given
the uncertainty in precip chances, there is not enough confidence to
warrant any headline issuance at this time.

the aforementioned short wave feature is forecast to eventually
phase with a developing closed mid level low rotating from northern
ontario into eastern ontario/quebec tuesday into tuesday night.
associated sfc low will track north of georgian bay tuesday, driving
a cold front across se mi tuesday morning. with the stronger push of
post frontal cold air lagging the sfc front, diurnal mixing will
help boost tuesday highs into the upper 30s to possibly low 40s.
cold air advection will then increase markedly late tues
afternoon/evening within increasing northwest flow. this will bring
seasonally cold conditions back to the forecast area with 850mb
temps falling to -10 to -11c wed morning. while conditions will not
be as cold as in recent weeks, high temps through the rest of the
work week will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s with nighttime lows
mainly in the teens. sfc high pressure expanding into the area by
thursday will sustain dry conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.marine...

southerly gradient strengthens today in advance of the next low to
impact the great lakes early this week. the system`s warm front
draws an initial wave of snow across lake huron tonight through mid
day tuesday. this is quickly followed by a cold front that sweeps
west to east across the region tuesday afternoon. immediate wind
shift to the northwest is expected with the fropa, followed by a
ramp up in wind gusts as cold advection ensues. wind gusts generally
expected to be in the 30-35 knot range tuesday evening through early
wednesday morning across northern lake huron, although confidence
falls just short of gale watch thresholds (40-50%). with upstream
portions of lake superior remaining largely ice-free, lake effect
snow bands bring periods of snow to lake huron through the mid-week
period. high pressure then fills in late week to support drier
conditions and relaxing wind/wave trends.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1153 pm est sun feb 8 2026

aviation...

high pressure centered over southern ontario reaches back into lower
mi to sustain vfr conditions late tonight. a few streamers of cirrus
and patches of mid level clouds gradually increase during the
morning over a light se surface wind between pressure systems. the
next complex of low pressure is organizing across central canada and
the plains with a warm front extending eastward. this front is
currently reflected by an exceptionally narrow band of clouds with
ceiling above 5000 ft. these clouds move into lower mi during the
afternoon as the surface warm front moves into the ohio valley which
then moves through se mi monday night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......mv
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.