Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
419
fxus61 kcle 160636
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
236 am edt wed sep 16 2026

.what has changed...
there is now a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms and a
slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for locations
roughly along and south of us-30.

.key messages...

1) periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through thursday as
a front wavers across the ohio valley.

2) unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. heavy
rainfall and localized flooding are possible on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the region
today. showers and thunderstorms over lake erie will eventually move
onshore early this morning and sink south across northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through this morning. the front will stall
south of the forecast area this evening with additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms continuing as shortwaves aloft move over
the region. there remains some potential for an isolated strong to
severe storm along and south of us-30 this afternoon and evening.
spc has placed that portion of the forecast area in the swody1
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the threat of damaging wind gusts.
hard to flush out specifics regarding timing and placement of
additional rounds beyond this evening given discrepancies within the
various 00z cams. maintained at least a chance pop in the forecast
with this update.

additionally, heavy rainfall remains a threat as showers and storms
train over the same locations and with area pwats rising into the
2.0-2.25 inch range. wpc has included the southern half of the
forecast area in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall
today. both the href and refs lpmm/pmm highlight the potential for a
locally higher swath of heavy rainfall along the us 30 corridor.

the front will sag south during the day thursday as canadian high
pressure builds overhead from the north. the forecast is continuing
to trend drier thursday night through friday.

key message 2...
high pressure exits to the east saturday as a low moves east across
the upper midwest into the great lakes. the low will lift a warm
front northeast across the region saturday before another cold front
sinks southeast saturday night into sunday. main concern for this
timeframe will be the heavy rainfall threat. area pwats remain high
with the potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall across lower michigan
into northern ohio. wpc has maintained a slight risk (level 2 of 4)
across the western half of the forecast area for saturday.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
some scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms have
entered the airspace early this morning. the bulk of the
activity this morning will be a batch of stratiform rain that
will move through the terminals. the lone exception will be keri
where some thunderstorms with non-vfr conditions are over lake
erie and will move into the terminal early this morning. the
weakening front will slowly push south across the airspace
today. waves of energy aloft will allow for additional rounds of
showers and perhaps some storms today and tonight and have some
windows of higher confidence of rain mentioned in the tafs. the
more widespread impact will be mvfr and potentially ifr ceilings
filling into the region behind the front tonight. winds will
start southerly across the area with a shift to the
north/northwest behind the front as it slowly crosses the area.

outlook...non-vfr possible at times in scattered showers/storms
through thursday night. non-vfr possible with showers and
thunderstorms saturday into sunday.

&&

.marine...
flow will oscillate between northerly to northeasterly while
remaining between 10-15 knots today through thursday. northerly
onshore flow increases to 12-18 knots thursday night into friday
which may briefly lead to choppy conditions across nearshore zones
in the central basin. friday evening into sunday winds will waver
between easterly to northeasterly at 12-18 knots. wave heights may
build to 2-4 feet across the nearshore zones in the eastern basin on
sunday under northwest flow 15-20 knots. numerous rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across the lake now through
thursday and again saturday into sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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375
fxus63 kiwx 160607
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
207 am edt wed sep 16 2026

.key messages...

- humid with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
thursday, best chances this morning, and then again later
tonight into thursday morning (50-80%).

- locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible today into thursday.

- dry and less humid conditions on friday followed by renewed
opportunties for rain and storms this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 207 am edt wed sep 16 2026

a frontal boundary and ~2 inch pwat axis will hover in west to
east fashion over the area through at least thursday with
periodic shower/storm chances. locally heavy rainfall/flash
flooding will be the primary concern given the high moisture
content and potential for several rounds of slow moving
convection.

favorable right entrance region upper support, in conjunction
with an incoming convectively augmented mid level impulse
(potential mcv), should keep at least scattered convection in
the vicinity of the theta-e ridge this morning, especially
across northern in and northwest oh. rainfall rates have been
impressive (over an inch in 10-15 minutes), so will continue to
monitor flooding going forward.

weak height rises on the northern fringes of a stout upper level
ridge suggest some overall subsidence this afternoon into this
evening. held with lower pops as a result during this time, but
still cannot rule out widely scattered convection within any pockets
of greater heating, mainly near the us 24 corridor. later tonight
into thursday morning then features increasing chances for
another round of storms and potential hydro issues as renewed
warm advection ensues within another low level jet.

the bulk of available model guidance does push the effective frontal
zone off to south-southwest by thursday night into friday with brief
dry and less humid conditions. rain/storm chances then return
this weekend as piecemeal shortwave energy ejects east out of
the intermountain west, forcing the boundary and instability
axis back north into the lower great lakes.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1225 am edt wed sep 16 2026

continued moisture transport into a frontal zone will likely
allow for an additional round of showers and storms (and brief
vis restrictions) this morning, best chances later tonight
through the late morning hours as an upstream mcv tracks in. low
vfr to mvfr conditions expected to build in just north of the
sfc portion of the front otherwise today with confidence on any
additional thunderstorm activity low (20-30%) by this afternoon-
evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
036
fxus63 kdtx 160700
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
300 am edt wed sep 16 2026

.key messages...

- rain and thunderstorm chances continue into the midweek period.

- the weekend indicates showery weather but mild temperatures
saturday and sunday.

&&

.discussion...

very strong h5 599 dam mid-upper level high pressure over southeast
us will slowly retrograde to portions of east texas and ok by
friday. the upper level jet axis over eastern canada will be slow to
move which will keep the baroclinic zone in relatively close
proximity to southeast michigan through at least the end of the week
and beginning of the upcoming weekend.

for today, plan view perspective of thetae shows the near surface
extension of the frontal zone slipping southward to the ohio border
while the 900-700mb frontal surface remains farther north between
the i 96-i 69 corridors. differences exist with regards to the north
south extent of shower/convective development later today. consensus
of many of the models including namnest and hrdps initiates deep
convection to the south of in/oh state line, whereas the ecmwf
brings qpf (from weaker elevated showers) much father north through
much of southeast michigan. system relative flow trajectories
highlight a coherent 925-850mb cyclonic circulation emerging today
near south bend that will track eastward increasing convergence.
models suggest shower activity approaching after 14z with spotty
activity in an around the area this afternoon. out of respect for
the elevated portion of the frontal zone and the progged
convergence, will keep inherited broad brushed pops.

despite little north to south movement of the upper level jet axis,
the entrance region and confluence aloft will support stable surface
high pressure late thursday and friday. strong likelihood that
increasing anticyclonic flow trajectories will result in lower
dewpoints into the 50s. a comfortable couple of days.

right entrance region to very large jet entrance brings the
potential for upstream convection to ride eastward through lower
michigan. there has been a subset of solutions that have a mcs
developing over the plains states friday and arriving over southeast
michigan midday saturday. breadth of synoptic scale forcing with
time of year suggests heavy rainfall potential. the latest excessive
rainfall outlook products have been highlighting a slight risk for a
good portion of southeast michigan. given the structure an
organization of the thetae ridge a wave will act upon, the setup
looks good. the current forecast as 80-90% pops for saturday.
another trough structure does look to suppress heights and cause a
cold front to slip southward for sunday.

&&

.marine...

a weak cold front gradually settles across the southern great lakes
this morning, shifting wind direction to north and northeast in its
wake with brief gustiness to around 15-20 kt over lake huron. high
pressure passes across the northern great lakes today, favoring
lighter winds and dry weather through the afternoon. the cold front
stalls near the southern great lakes this evening, sustaining a
chance for showers and storms mainly near lake erie into tonight and
thursday. the gradient strengthens thursday evening as another area
of high pressure builds into northern ontario, producing an uptick
in northerly winds early friday morning. given the long fetch into
southern lake huron, will monitor the need for a small craft
advisory for high waves reaching the nearshore waters friday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1225 am edt wed sep 16 2026

aviation...

thunderstorm clusters exiting the dtw corridor at forecast issuance
are followed by the cold front that also exits south and east before
sunrise. the forecast focus then turns to cloud conditions along
with any stray showers or rumble of thunder post front through the
morning. expansion of mvfr stratus with a fog component are
maintained in light and variable wind that turns ne off lake huron
in the low levels, and as breaks in mid/high clouds allow some
boundary layer radiational cooling. borderline mvfr/low vfr ceiling
then continues through the afternoon, especially toward dtw with the
cold front still nearby to the south. this is also where the
potential for showers and a rumble of thunder are greatest, although
timing predictability is on the low side. farther north, the inbound
high pressure air mass has just enough dry air to combine with
daytime heating and nudge the cloud edge south of mbs mid to late
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... a rumble of thunder lingers during the late
night as the cold front moves through the region before sunrise.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and wednesday.

* moderate for thunderstorms before sunrise.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......tf
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.