Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
219
fxus61 kcle 241439
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
939 am est tue feb 24 2026

.what has changed...
lake-effect snow (les) is shifting n`ward over/downwind of lake
erie and the primary snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa as the mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air backs to w`erly
and eventually backs to sw`erly. expect this les to weaken,
overall, during the next several hours and dissipate very early
this afternoon as lake-induced cape wanes via a lowering/strengthening
subsidence inversion accompanying a surface ridge cresting
e`ward across our region as the portion of the ridge aloft
continues to build from the west. additional les accumulations
are expected to be one inch or less.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake-effect snow will taper off early this morning. after a
brief break through this afternoon, a clipper system will enter
the region and bring additional light snow areawide with
several inches of new accumulation expected nw pa.

2) a system will move through the ohio valley on thursday and
may bring additional snow to the region. trends with this system
remain south and the heaviest snow may miss the local area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
light lake-effect snow continues across the region this
morning. with the persistent lake huron connection into the
region, expect another inch or two of snow to fall through 7 am,
mainly in the hills of nw pa. trends should be down after
daybreak, as clouds are falling apart over lake erie and mean
low level flow should begin backing across the region.

there will be a brief break in the snow later this morning into
the afternoon before a clipper system moves through the great
lakes region. snow will begin after dark and bring light
accumulations to the entire forecast area. in far ne oh and nw
pa, snow will be quick to ramp up tonight with a quick 2-4+" of
snow in a brief 4 to 6 hour window. have gone ahead an issued
the new winter weather advisory for southern erie and crawford
counties in pa from 7 pm tonight to 1 pm wednesday. some
lake-effect snow will linger into wednesday in pa for some
additional light accumulations.

key message 2...
the next system in the sequence is a low pressure system moving
through the ohio and tennessee valleys on thursday. this system
has continued to trend south, meaning that the precipitation
shield on the north side of the system is also trending south.
as of this morning, the forecast will have the main snow axis of
a couple inches of snow shifting south, mainly along and south
of us 30, but several 00z guidance members are suggesting that
this axis may go even further south and most of the area may
actually miss having any snow with this system.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
remaining light lake-enhanced snow showers will diminish early
in the taf period with lingering mvfr ceilings likely improving
to vfr by early afternoon. a period of vfr conditions is
expected this afternoon and early this evening before snow
arrives from the northwest after 00z tonight. non-vfr
conditions are likely in snow and lower clouds with the lowest
visibilities anticipated in heavier snowfall rates across ne
oh/nw pa. snow will be relatively short-lived with the majority
of precip exiting to the southeast of the local area by 09z or
10z wednesday morning, but expect mvfr ceilings to persist
after snow ends.

winds will be out of the west/southwest at 6 to 12 knots this
morning before southwest winds deepen in response to the
approaching system this afternoon through tonight. peak winds of
12 to 18 knots with gusts to 20 to 30 knots are likely late
afternoon through 06z wednesday with winds slowly diminishing
after 06z. the strongest winds are anticipated from roughly kcle
to kcak west. there may be a very brief period of llws tonight,
but confidence is too low to include in the tafs at this point.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lingering light snow showers
across northwest pennsylvania during the day wednesday.
additional non-vfr possible in light snow as another disturbance
crosses the area thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest flow will develop this morning into this afternoon
and winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots as a cold front
approaches from the west this evening. winds become a bit more
westerly behind the front on wednesday, but expect wind speeds
to remain elevated through wednesday afternoon. west/northwest
winds will relax wednesday night before becoming more variable
as low pressure passes to the south of lake erie thursday into
friday morning. offshore winds will develop and increase to 15
to 25 knots ahead of a cold front friday night into early
saturday.

while small craft advisories remain suspended due to extensive
ice coverage across the majority of the lake, waves in ice free
areas may build to 3 to 6 feet during periods of stronger winds.
any wind shifts and elevated winds will result in movement of
lake ice, which could impact shipping lanes.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
wednesday for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka/sefcovic
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
973
fxus63 kiwx 241153
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
653 am est tue feb 24 2026

.key messages...

- a few flurries possible with lake effect clouds drifting
southeast from the lake. windy conditions will develop today
with some drifting snow possible across open and rural areas.

- a fast moving system may bring a dusting of snow accumulation
this evening into tonight.

- snow chances return for late wednesday night into thursday.
some snow accumulation is possible, especially along and
south of us route 24. confidence in the northward extent of
snow accumulation is still low at this time however.

- moderating temperatures for late work week, but turning colder
for the weekend with some additional chances of snow.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 313 am est tue feb 24 2026

lake effect clouds will continue to drape across the cwa
southeastward from lake michigan. periods of flurries will be
possible through this morning with the cloud cover. some
instability flurries to light snow showers have developed near
the arcola area in allen county due to the warm discharge from
steel mill activity with the cold temperatures in the middle
teens and have drifted southeastward towards kfwa this morning.
lake effect clouds have kept temperatures a few degrees warmer
than would have been with clear skies which areas west of us-31
have dropped into the lower teens with less cloud cover in those
areas. shortwave ridging in place however, lake effect clouds
and recent snowfall should keep high temperatures slightly muted
with highs today ranging in the mid to upper 30s.

a clipper system will begin pushing southeast into the great
lakes region with main disturbance pushing through just north of
the cwa. tightening in the pressure gradients ahead of the
disturbance will bring an increase in the southwesterly winds this
afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph possible. the fast moving
disturbance will bring a dusting for most parts of the area
especially the northeastern half of the cwa. less than 1 inch of
snowfall expected.

wednesday will bring a short break in precipitation chances with
highs in the low 30s to low 40s with the warmer temps across the
southeastern portions of the area. a still tricky forecast is in
place for late wednesday into thursday in which another quick
moving disturbance but this time tracking west to east across
southern portions of the cwa. this will increase chances of
light snowfall for mainly locations south of us-24 where around
an inch of accumulation will be possible. a few spots could see
close to the two inch mark. however, still watching this
carefully as guidance has not had a good handle on this synoptic
setup and if this disturbance tracks a bit further north would
bring the higher amounts northward with it, of course the
opposite is true with a more southern track would mean lower
amounts. highs on thursday will be just a smidge warmer with
values ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.

a stronger west to southwesterly flow at the surface will bring
a drier airmass with breezy to gusty conditions along with a
bout of warming to the area friday and saturday with highs each
day in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s, however, saturdays
highs will occur early saturday before a trough axis with cold
front pushes southward into the region and brings colder
temperatures and increased chances for light snow showers
through sunday morning. sunday and monday of next week will see
high temperatures return to more normal levels with values in
the 30s across the area.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 647 am est tue feb 24 2026

vfr to mvfr conditions expected at terminals this period. mainly
mid-high level clouds to contend with through the day today,
with south-southwest winds gusting to 25-30 knots expected.
non-impactful flurries are possible this morning. potential for
snow and mvfr ceilings return later tonight as a clipper system
passes north of the area, bringing a cold front through. winds
shift west, with llws of 45-50kts possible at both sites after
00z. light snow with mvfr ceilings/visibilities are expected as
this front passes through, first at ksbn (00z-06z) then kfwa
(03-09z).


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
905
fxus63 kdtx 241051
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
551 am est tue feb 24 2026

.key messages...

- a band of accumulating snow tracks through the region this evening.
snow totals ranging from one half to 2 inches, with highest
amounts across the saginaw valley and northern thumb.

- chance of snow showers wednesday morning, with minor accumulation
possible.

- seasonable temperatures through the midweek period.

&&

.aviation...

predominately vfr conditions will prevail today with a few scattered
low clouds possibly bringing some brief periods of mvfr ceilings.
otherwise, winds turn out of the southwest while becoming gusty up to
25 knots. clipper system then arrives this evening bringing a
relatively short period of snowfall roughly over a 3 hour period for
all terminals starting about 22-23z across mbs and reaching dtw
terminals by 00-01z. better potential for mvfr ceilings will be
across mbs and fnt. area of slightly higher snowfall intensity pushes
east by 04z. frontal boundary passing through turning winds out of
the west tonight while cold advection brings scattered light lake
effect snow showers and mvfr ceilings through tomorrow morning.

for dtw...best chance of snow arrives at 00-01z this evening and
probably only last about 3 hours. current forecast is for around a
half inch of accumulation.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through this afternoon. high
tonight.

* high for precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 am est tue feb 24 2026

discussion...

generally benign weather conditions expected through most of the
daylight period today. resident polar thermal profile will steadily
vacate within the backdrop of modest height rises and strengthening
warm air advection as low level flow emerges from the south within
the immediate wake of exiting surface ridging. this will support
highs in the upper in the upper 20s to lower 30s. increase in gust
magnitude and frequency into the afternoon affords some gusts into
the 30 mph range. probability for an initial period of light snow
this afternoon along the main wing of isentropic ascent remains
quite low owing to lack of greater moisture quality or depth. main
focus remains tied to roughly a 3-4 hour window of strong mid level
forcing this evening associated with the inbound clipper set to
sweep across the lower peninsula. expectation remains for a linear
band of snow to expand from northwest to southeast across the area
between 23z and 03z. slightly greater and longer duration of ascent
noted north of i-69, but with all areas capped on snow accumulation
potential given the limited timeframe. outgoing forecast maintains a
general distribution from half inch or less m-59 corridor southward
to 1-2" north of m-46. attendant cold front arrives during the early
morning hours. the ensuing advective process with possible/brief
enhancement from a trailing mid level wave and lake moisture flux will
maintain the potential for intervals of light snow shower
development into wednesday morning. minor additional accumulation
possible with this transient activity.

evolution toward a split flow upper pattern with the main storm
track held to the south will leave southeast michigan generally void
of impactful weather concerns through the remainder of the work
week. forecast will continue to highlight temperatures wed and thu
on the cooler side of average with broad, weak mid level troughing
governing conditions. warming trend noted friday as southwest flow
strengthens ahead of a clipper system projected to track by north of
lake superior. strength of the advective process looks to push
temperatures well into the 40s. no real evidence of meaningful
moisture advection ahead of the inbound attendant cold front at this
stage for friday night, so dry conditions maintained throughout the
late week period.

northern stream will increase influence this weekend with general
mid level troughing holding firm. noteworthy downturn in
temperatures likely at some point as the local area resides north of
the main baroclinic zone and low level flow turns northerly. the
underlying pattern suggests some potential for brief interludes of
mid level fgen to materialize as the upper jet fluctuates atop the
elevated frontal zone. this may yield an opportunity for light snow
development during this time with further forecast revision of
precip probability likely this period.

marine...

northwest flow early this morning shifts to the south as high
pressure drifts east of the great lakes. flow then strengthens as
the pressure gradient tightens in advance of the next low pressure
system that will track across lake superior today and into ontario
tonight. strong low level jet winds (50-55 knots) will be anchored
to the warm advection portion of this system, with majority of
models keeping winds elevated this evening and overnight. frequent
gusts look to stay capped around 30 knots, although a few sporadic
gusts to gales will be possible mainly for shoreline areas. higher
confidence item with this low is a period of snow this afternoon
into tonight. flow veers to the west early wednesday morning as a
cold front sweeps across the area, with a colder airmass filling in
behind it to generate lake effect snow showers for much of the day
wednesday. winds subside through the day with the return of high
pressure wednesday night, followed by another low pressure system
that tracks across the ohio valley. the track of the low looks to
stay well south of the great lakes, although the northern fringe of
the precipitation shield may clip lake erie late this week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...mr
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.