Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
076
fxus61 kcle 020429
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1129 pm est thu jan 1 2026

.synopsis...
a weak clipper system will move across the southern great lakes
region this evening followed by a lingering trough friday. high
pressure will build into the ohio valley saturday. another weak
clipper will dive through the central great lakes saturday
night, with high pressure briefly returning sunday before
another clipper drops through the region sunday night and
monday.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
similar to this time yesterday, we have another clipper
approaching the region for the evening hours, but this one will
be much weaker and low impact. regional radar and water vapor
loops as of mid afternoon show the mid/upper shortwave
associated with this clipper low diving se out of illinois,
michigan, and indiana. the exit region of an accompanying
135-140 knot h3 jet streak is leading to large scale forcing for
ascent, with a large area of light snow approaching from the
west and northwest. however, moisture is much more limited with
this evening`s event, so expect mainly nuisance snow.
nevertheless, it will snow everywhere this evening, so increased
pops to high chance in most areas. expect amounts to be 0.5
inch or less, and this could lead to some slick roads that are
not treated.

the synoptic snow will quickly end in the 00 to 02z timeframe,
and then attention will turn to lake-effect snow returning to
the region. boundary layer flow will back to wsw this evening
ahead of the surface trough that accompanies the mid-level wave
(clipper system). rap bufkit forecast soundings suggest
deepening moisture ahead of the trough with equilibrium levels
rising to 6500 to 7000 feet, as well as increasing omega (lift)
within a deepening and saturated dgz. this combined with the
long fetch and increased low-level convergence ahead of the
trough will reinvigorate a band of heavy lake-effect snow. this
will first be directed into the buffalo, ny suburbs, but
boundary layer flow is expected to veer to about 270 degrees
(westerly) later this evening behind the surface trough, and
this will push the band inland across the i-90 corridor of lake,
ashtabula, and erie counties. the latest rap and href guidance,
as well as the rgem, have trended farther north with the band
placement overnight given stronger thermal convergence near the
south shore of the lake and overall less veered boundary layer
flow. this should limit the southwest extent of the band`s push
tonight, but there remains some uncertainty in exact placement.
at the present time, the most likely scenario is that the band
will start to affect the erie, pa lakeshore around or just after
00z then gradually push into northern ashtabula county through
04z and into lake, far northern geauga, central ashtabula, and
northern crawford counties between 04 and 09z. the band will
likely start to return back northward after 12z friday morning
as the boundary layer flow slowly backs while also slowly
weakening due to drier air and a lowering inversion. however, it
will take until mid afternoon to lift offshore of erie county.

in terms of snowfall and impacts, instability will be a little
lower than last night since the lake temp is now 34f and 850 mb
temps will actually warm slightly overnight to an average of
13-14 c. this is leading to the marginal 6500-7000 foot
equilibrium level, so snow amounts will not be crazy. however,
the long fetch and convergence combined with the deep moisture
and lift through the dgz will support snowfall rates of up to 1
inch per hour at times. this will lead to an additional 4 to 8
inches across erie county through friday where the lake-effect
snow warning has been extended through 21z, and 2 to 5 inches
across crawford county where an advisory has been issued from
00z to 21z friday. the greatest amounts in crawford county will
be in northern portions of the county. amounts in ashtabula
county should average 2 to 5 inches in northern parts of the
county and 1 to 3 inches in the central part. farther west,
generally 1 to 3 inches is expected in lake and northern geauga
counties. if the band gets farther southwest for a longer
period of time, then some 4 inch amounts are possible in lake
and geauga, but only issued an advisory for ashtabula county at
this time since confidence is higher. the advisory for
ashtabula county is valid from 00z to 18z friday.

outside of the lake-effect area, a dry day is expected friday,
with all areas drying out friday night as high pressure builds
across the ohio valley. temperatures will remain cold, with
highs in the low to mid 20s friday and lows in the teens tonight
and friday night. wind chills will be in the single digits
tonight and friday night.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
high pressure will remain across the ohio valley saturday but
will quickly weaken by evening as another weak and fast moving
clipper system dives through the central great lakes saturday
night into sunday morning as the deep mid/upper trough remains
entrenched across the great lakes and eastern canada. the mid-
level jet support with this clipper looks to mostly pass across
ontario and into ny, but added chance pops for light snow in far
ne ohio and nw pa saturday afternoon into sunday morning. the
boundary layer flow will also try to veer a little more
westerly behind the accompanying trough saturday night, and with
continued lake induced instability and long fetch, at least a
weak lake-effect band could impact erie county, pa. at this
time, 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible in erie county saturday
night into sunday morning, with just nuisance amounts of a few
tenths in the rest of nw pa and ne ohio. high pressure will
return to the ohio valley late sunday into sunday night to
support mainly dry conditions.

as stated above, with the broad mid/upper trough remaining
across the region, it will be a cold weekend, with highs staying
in the low/mid 20s saturday and mid/upper 20s sunday. lows
saturday night and sunday night will fall into the teens again.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
active weather will continue through next week, but temperatures
will warm above freezing with a several day thaw. one more
clipper system will dive through the great lakes and eastern
canada trough monday. this will bring some light snow to mainly
far northern ohio and nw pa, but impacts should be low. after
that, the trough will finally lift out allowing for a period of
quasi-zonal flow across the conus that will lead to mild
pacific- based air flooding eastward. weak systems will impact
the region for mid to late week, with the most organized one
appearing to be late tuesday into wednesday, but timing is
uncertain. nevertheless, rain will be the p-type with any
precipitation that falls tuesday through thursday as
temperatures warm well into the 40s during the daytime hours.

&&

.aviation /04z friday through tuesday/...
aloft, nw`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect our region
through 06z/sat. at the surface, a trough lingers over lake
erie and vicinity as a ridge builds gradually from the north-
central united states into the rest of northern oh and nw pa.
our regional surface winds vary between sw`erly and wnw`erly
around 5 to 15 knots. periodic gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are
expected along and near the lake erie shore in far-ne oh and nw
pa, including at keri. scattered to widespread low clouds with
bases near 1kft to 5kft agl are expected through the taf period.

light general snow, associated with one of the aforementioned
disturbances aloft, should exit ne oh and nw pa generally from
west to east by ~08z/fri. visibility should vary between vfr and
mvfr in this light snow. behind the general snow, dry weather
and vfr visibility are expected across most of our area through
06z/sat. however, lake-effect snow (les) of varying intensity
will impact far-ne oh and nw pa, including keri, through 06z/sat
as mean low-level flow veers gradually from wsw`erly to
wnw`erly. the steadiest to heaviest les is expected through
~13z/fri, amidst greater and deeper low-level moisture.
visibility will vary between vfr and lifr in the les.

outlook...primarily light lake-effect snow with periodic non-vfr
should linger over portions of ne oh and nw pa friday night
before dissipating by daybreak saturday. periods of snow and/or
rain with non-vfr are possible this saturday afternoon through
tuesday.

&&

.marine...
the small craft advisories from willowick eastward through
ripley, ny continue as west winds around 15 to 20 knots produce
waves of 3 to 6 feet through friday night. high pressure builds
in saturday through monday, providing a sustained period of
sub-advisory conditions across lake erie. weak southerly flow
then develops tuesday through wednesday on the backside of the
departing high pressure.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est friday for ohz014-089.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 4 pm est friday for paz001-002.
winter weather advisory until 4 pm est friday for paz003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est saturday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...garuckas
near term...garuckas
short term...garuckas
long term...garuckas
aviation...jaszka
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 020533
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1233 am est fri jan 2 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures remain below normal through the weekend, with a
trend back to above normal levels for much of next week.

- additional weak systems may graze the area sunday night and
again tuesday evening, with little or no impact expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 159 pm est thu jan 1 2026

compared to the the end of 2025, 2026 will start out on a much more
peaceful note, with trends still suggesting a return to near or more
likely above normal temperatures for the first week or 2 of
january. a few hiccups do exist prior to the shift in the upper
level flow, so lets do a quick breakdown on them.

a mid level disturbance is diving quickly se across mn and wi this
afternoon. while radar returns are already appearing in nw areas, a
brief struggle in dry low levels needs to be overcome. ksbn has been
reporting light snow since the 1 pm ob, with sfc dewpoint spreads
not as high as upstream (lake contribution?). cams in the area
suggest flake size likely rather small, but some minor accumulations
could be underway. upstream obs across southern wi do show greater
vsby impacts and maybe some light accumulations that will trend this
way through the afternoon. locations north of us-30 will see the
greatest chance for a quick dusting to maybe a few tenths of snow
before quickly ending near 00z fri.

friday through sunday will be rather tranquil, although still below
normal with highs in the 20s. mid and high clouds are still
expected, but could see some filtered sunshine at times to help it
feel a bit better. another disturbance passes by north of the area
sunday night. while the current forecast maintains slgt chc to chc
pops for some light snow mainly n of us-6, greater chances will
reside into mi with no travel impacts expected for the monday
morning commute.

upper level ridging will finally commence in greater fashion
starting monday and persist through the upcoming week. while
temperatures will end up above normal (40s to even some 50s), some
day to day variations may occur as weak disturbances pass through
the flow. some slgt chc pops exist tuesday evening, but are likely
overdone.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1223 am est fri jan 2 2026

mvfr ceilings are seeping south across wi and mi early this
morning and remain on pace to arrive to ksbn and kfwa +/-12z.
time height cross sections depict a subsidence inversion around
for most of the day before improving late. duration of mvfr
(ifr at ksbn) medium- high confidence given strong model
agreement. wind at or below 10 knots today thanks to high
pressure spreading into the midwest.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 020457
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1157 pm est thu jan 1 2026

.key messages...

- pockets of light snow showers and flurries will continue to
develop at times throughout the night. dusting of additional
accumulation possible.

- cold weather will persist through the weekend. wind chills are
forecast to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above zero.

- there will be another chance for a dusting of light snow saturday
afternoon and evening.

- the potential exists for accumulating snowfall over 1 inch sunday
night into monday morning. the highest likelihood for impacts to the
monday morning commute is currently located north of m-59.

&&

.aviation...

there remains potential for some periods of light snow showers or
flurries through the remainder of the night, as weak mid level
energy engages ongoing lake michigan moisture flux. this will occur
within a fluctuating cloud base between high mvfr and low vfr. a
reduction in moisture depth friday will favor mainly dry conditions
with a lingering stratus deck carrying cigs within the 2500 to 3500
ft range. gradual warming and drying of cloud layer with time will
eventually support erosion of stratus late friday and friday night,
while building high pressure ensures benign conditions during this
time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling aob 5000 feet through friday afternoon.

* high for snow precipitation type.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 908 pm est thu jan 1 2026

update...

adequate depth to moisture with saturation wrt to ice solidily
within the dgz maintaining a supportive environment for light snow
production across areas generally from i-69 southward late this
evening. upstream radar trends paired with latest hi res model
guidance and probabilistic information lend support for pockets of
light snow showers/flurries to persist into the early morning hours,
but with some contraction in scale possible as modest convergence
perhaps anchors a few more focused bands downstream into the m-59/i-
96 corridors. confidence in occurrance for a healthier band or two
to emerge remains low. updated forecast will extend/expand the
footprint for snow chances into the early morning period /through
roughly 08-09z/, with generally a dusting to half inch of additional
accumulation possible for the remainder of the night. drier
conditions still expected to develop late tonight and carry into
friday.

prev discussion...
issued at 320 pm est thu jan 1 2026

discussion...

a northwest flow pattern aloft will dictate conditions today through
the weekend with arctic air remaining entrenched across the area. a
weak clipper is arriving from the west at press time with the left
exit region of an upper jet engaging with an elevated frontal slope
overhead to produce light snow across much of the area. remnant low-
level dry air is giving way with light snow already being reported
at ktew, kjxn, and kjym. little change from forecast reasoning
outlined in the morning update discussion, but generally up to
around a half inch will be most likely for areas south of i-69 with
mainly just flurries to the north. modeled fgen and omega fields are
weak with this wave and think the potential to overachieve is
limited based on run-to-run consistency. snowfall should trend to
non-accumulating flurries before midnight and these may continue
overnight. low temps will remain cold, in the teens, with wind chill
in the single digits leading into friday morning.

the next shortwave in the upper flow arrives late in the day
saturday bringing a more widespread area of height falls mainly to
the northern and eastern great lakes. a 800-900mb dry layer looks to
be a limiting factor for accumulations for metro detroit and south.
closer proximity to the wave, upper jet exit region, and available
moisture brings minor accumulations of a half inch to 1 inch for the
saginaw valley and thumb areas with snow tapering off during the
early morning hours sunday. an area of high pressure follows this
wave on sunday, offering tranquil but still cool conditions.

the upper flow pattern transitions to a more zonal configuration
over the great lakes late sunday into the early week, with several
low amplitude shortwaves offering additional precip chances. there
is high confidence for a compact wave to track across the great
lakes sunday night with height falls progged to pass directly over
lower mi. this wave will be riding on top of a larger scale warm
advection pattern as the arctic thermal trough releases eastward,
with a fairly robust omega signal in available soundings. the
ensemble mean qpf bullseye targets northern lake huron and the up,
but still produces a swath of 0.10 to 0.20" of qpf as far south as
the saginaw valley and thumb. the 13z nbm advertises a 40 to 70%
probability for these areas to receive over 1" of snow. a few of the
more amplified ensemble solutions bring a stronger warm nose in
aloft which hints at the potential for a wintry mix for parts of the
area, but confidence is highest in an all snow solution for now. the
next window for precip will be late tuesday into tuesday night with
the next wave aloft. by this point, temperatures will trend above
freezing which suggests mainly a chance for light rain.

marine...

the central great lakes remain under the western edge of remnant
troughing across eastern canada. this has maintained 25-30kt west
flow for much of lake huron and some borderline gales over the far
northern portions. as the trough axis shifts further east down the
st lawrence overnight, this is expected to allow just enough
relaxation of the local gradient to bring gusts down closer to the
20-25kt range for friday with some lingering 30kt gusts still
possible over the northernmost waters of huron. arctic airmass in
place combined with these winds maintains areas of freezing spray in
the open waters of lake huron through friday (especially in the
north where strongest winds will reside). the northeastern edge of
plains surface high pressure attempts to build into the region
saturday however is blunted by a weak clipper dropping out of the
canadian prairie into the northern great lakes. this does however set
up a weaker overall gradient, relative to these past few days,
allowing for 20kt or less wind daytime saturday with only a fairly
brief uptick in nw winds (still likely sub 25kts) in the immediate
wake of the low saturday night. plains high then drifts east over
the great lakes/ohio valley sunday supporting light (<15kt) winds
and dry weather to close out the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est friday for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
update.......mr
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.