Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
856
fxus61 kcle 190544
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
144 am edt thu mar 19 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily scattered rain showers will impact portions of
north and northwest ohio thursday morning. there is a low chance
for a brief period of light freezing rain near the i-75 corridor
thursday morning.

2) a pair of systems will impact the region on friday and
sunday with primarily rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
sunday`s system will drag a stronger cold front through the
area.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1...
a weak trough will move east through the central and lower
great lakes on thursday, bringing mainly scattered rain showers
across portions of north and northwest ohio thursday morning.
with the cold air mass in place, a brief period of freezing rain
cannot be ruled out near the i-75 corridor, though marginal
surface temperatures at or just above freezing should largely
limit any road impacts. temperatures will quickly increase into
the 40s behind the trough by early to mid-thursday afternoon.

key message #2...
a pair of low pressure systems will move through the region on
friday and sunday, bringing generally rain and perhaps a few
thunderstorms across the area. the first system will impact
primarily the eastern half of the area as it moves east through
the eastern great lakes. the latest model guidance does suggest
some minimal moisture recovery near the us-30 and east of the
i-71 corridors by the mid to late afternoon which could yield
surface instability around 500 j/kg. chances are low, but can`t
rule out a stronger storm or two with small hail given the
strong northwest deep layer shear in place.

the second system will arrive on sunday which will bring another
round of rain, followed by a strong cold front late sunday. the
latest guidance indicates slightly stronger moisture return with
this system ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening,
though at this time, the highest shear/instability overlap
probabilities more favorable for organized thunderstorms remain
just south of the area. will continue to monitor trends over
the next couple of days. a colder air mass will briefly return
to the area behind the front with temperatures in the 40s on
monday.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
largely going to be dealing with 3-5kft ceilings as high
pressure builds into the region while low level moisture takes
its time exiting. light rain possible at tol this morning in a
tempo group, but the forecast is mainly dry. winds variable
through the period with the aforementioned high pressure moving
in, but under 10kts and no gusts expected.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain showers and low ceilings
friday and sunday.

&&

.marine...
south winds 10 to 20 knots are expected early this evening
before winds shift to the southwest and diminish to 10 knots or
less tonight. winds are expected to become light and variable
thursday afternoon with south/southwest flow developing and
deepening to about 15 knots on friday afternoon. winds will then
shift to the northwest and remain in the 5 to 10 knots range
friday night into saturday. the next opportunity for small craft
advisories arrive as early as sunday as the passage of a cold
front produces west/northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots.
confidence in small craft advisory conditions is highest as
north/northeast winds increase to 20 to 25 knots in response to
strong high pressure building into the region on monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
485
fxus63 kiwx 190601
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
201 am edt thu mar 19 2026

.key messages...

- chances for precipitation will be rather limited through the
period.

- generally above normal temperatures through the next 7 days,
with the coolest day being monday with highs closer to normal
(mid 40s).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 201 am edt thu mar 19 2026

precipitation chances...

area of light showers extends nw to se from central wi into sw
lower mi with our far ne portions of the forecast area to be
clipped over the next several hours. models have backed off
considerably compared to 24 hours ago and also reside further
ne, resulting in disappointing chances for measureable precip.
pops were trimmed across the south earlier and may need further
lowering in the ne, but for now have maintained slgt chc to chc
pops in these areas. air temps are above freezing, but some wet
bulbing may occur to send temps closer to freezing for a brief
period, warranting leaving a mention of freezing precip in. not
overly concerned about travel issues with this, but will monitor
as we draw closer to the morning commute. yet another
disturbance drops southeast, with the sfc low tracking well ne
of the area. slgt chc to chc pops remain in ne areas, but could
very well be overdone and trimmed in subsequent forecasts.

dry weather is in store for saturday and again starting monday
with a cold front set to pass though sunday. the best moisture
will remain well south of the region with dewpoints struggling
to reach the lower 50s. some slgt chc to chc pops remain in the
model blends, but anticipate either maintenance of these or
possible lowering with time. the upcoming work week looks
generally dry, with medium range models hinting as maybe some
weak system to bring limited chances for showers. by the end of
the week, a much more dynamic pattern sets up that may bring
better chances.

temperatures...

through the next 7 days, temperatures should generally be above
to well above normal (normal highs in the mid to upper 40s) with
the warmest days being friday and sunday when 70s return. a drop
back to seasonable (40s) temperatures occurs for monday in the
wake of the cold front, but this is short lived with moderation
into the upcoming week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 108 am edt thu mar 19 2026

a robust dry layer near 6k ft agl will preclude any measurable
rainfall as a clipper passes through this morning. the existing
tafs were in good shape and carry on at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
803
fxus63 kdtx 190604
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
204 am edt thu mar 19 2026

.key messages...

- a very light mix of rain, freezing drizzle and flurries are
possible this morning. this may lead to trace amounts of ice
accumulation.

- warmer conditions friday, with a chance of rain showers.

- above average temperatures will persist into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

lower amplitude mid level northwest flow will continue to govern
conditions to finish the work week period. minor perturbation
embedded within the mean flow will translate across the region
today. this occurs atop a stalled elevated frontal zone and
associated narrow low level moist plume. minimal signal to suggest
anything outside of a lower probability for light qpf production /if
any/ at a very limited scale and duration as weak ascent washes
through today. forecast will continue to highlight simply a low end
potential targeting south of i-96. surface temps flirting near
freezing at daybreak may allow for a couple observations of light
freezing drizzle or flurries as moisture depth fluctuatues,
particularly in the irish hills. no meaningful icing concerns given
the expected brevity in occurrence, with temperatures then
accelerating above freezing post-daybreak. highs arriving in the 40s
most locations, as a window of modest cold air advection atop the
boundary layer proves minimally impactful.

another low amplitude wave set to traverse the northern great lakes
friday. projected system trajectory ensures the meaningful
associated ascent and moisture advection within a broader region of
warm air advection holds well to the north. sounding data offers a
generally dry and stable diurnal profile both with the modified
early day warm sector and within the immediate post-cold frontal
environment. forecast will continue to highlight a lower probability
for the southern expanse of more direct frontal forcing to glance
across mainly the thumb region late thursday night into early
friday. frontal timing potentially stunting the magnitude of warming
across the north, lending to a greater south to north thermal
gradient with above average highs ranging from lower 60s to upper
40s.

no significant wx through at least saturday. se michigan will reside
south of the governing north pacific upper jet and within a quasi-
zonal mid level flow north of a broadening southern conus ridge.
moderating thermal profile across this window maintains certainty
for continued above average temperatures with dry conditions under
high magnitude stability saturday. subtle height falls as the upper
jet bends southward will draw an east-west elongated baroclinic zone
across the lower peninsula saturday night into sunday. limited
residence time for meaningful forced ascent along the advancing
elevated frontal slope before drier east flow south of expansive
high pressure aggressively takes control. forecast offers an
appropriate chance mention for a mix of light rain and snow centered
on sunday morning, with pace of the cold air advection relative to
precip timing carrying some uncertainty yet for ptype. frontal
timing with dictate whether notably colder post-frontal conditions
for the latter half of the weekend or hold off until early next
week.

&&

.marine...

low pressure departing northeastern ontario leaves a weak frontal
boundary draped across the great lakes today with light,
disorganized flow in place. southerly winds then increase to around
15 to 20 kt friday morning as a clipper system arrives over the
northern lakes. light snow is possible across northern lake huron,
otherwise mainly light rain is favored as milder air works into the
region. wind shifts to northwest at around 15 kt as the system
quickly departs late friday, then a weaker pressure pattern
maintains relatively light and disorganized wind on saturday. a
strong cold front sinks across the region on sunday with gusty
northeast wind of 20 to 30 kt. probability for gales is low at this
time, but small craft advisories will likely be needed across
southern lake huron due to wave heights around or above 4 feet.
expansive high pressure builds in behind the front on monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 151 am edt thu mar 19 2026

aviation...

low-level frontal boundary locked in the deep northwest flow across
the central lakes region will persist across the southeast michigan
airspace for most of today. there is weak ascent up this frontal
slope - leading to persistent a mix of lower vfr ceilings and breaks
in the lowest cloud deck. enough moisture should gather along the
boundary - especially across the northern sites to support some
light fog and maybe some patchy freezing drizzle. additionally, a
weak impulse will roll through prior to daybreak - which could
squeeze a brief flurry or freezing drizzle dose - albeit too low a
chance to toss in the terminals. improvement in ceilings will take
place by midday as a little bit of near surface dry air washes in.

for dtw... there remains a brief window of forcing for very light
precipitation - mainly around daybreak. depending on the surface
temperature - which will be hovering near 32f - this could be in the
form of light drizzle or freezing drizzle.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet through this morning.

* low for ptype thursday morning being a mixed precipitation.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......tf
aviation.....mann

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.