Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
889
fxus61 kcle 242304
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
704 pm edt tue mar 24 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with the thunderstorm threat
late thursday into thursday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) the next round of widespread showers and storms will be associated
with a cold front that will track through late thursday into
thursday night. some thunderstorms may be severe late thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

quasi-zonal mid-level flow for the middle of this week will become
amplified once again across the eastern half of the conus late this
week as an elongated, but strong cold front propagates north to
south through oh starting late thursday afternoon. a broad area of
moist swerly flow from the lower ms valley into the oh valley will
help raise surface dew points up to 60 degf for portions of oh.
after lingering light precipitation thursday morning, widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the frontal
boundary continuing through thursday night. the latest spc outlook
for thursday shows a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe
thunderstorms with shear profiles around 50 kt as a strong jet moves
overhead. instability looks to be greatest across western oh
highlighting the area more likely to see stronger storm development
with the frontal passage, but a stout capping inversion indicated on
latest forecast soundings will likely limit any prefrontal
development. strong winds and periods of heavy rainfall look to be
the main hazards with these storms. with this cold front, 850mb
temps will drop from 12-14 degc thursday to near -10 degc late
friday resulting in maxts on friday and saturday at least 10 degf
below normal for late march.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are ongoing and will persist through the taf period as
high pressure slowly exits to the east. mid to high level clouds will
continue passing through at times. light and variable winds tonight
turn south-southwest and increase to 7-13kt wednesday afternoon.

outlook...brief/spotty non-vfr possible wednesday night and thursday
morning with rain showers. high confidence in widespread showers and
thunderstorms with non-vfr conditions thursday evening with a cold
front. rain may briefly mix with snow before ending thursday night,
with some non-vfr in stratus lingering into friday.

&&

.marine...
primarily s`erly to sw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected
through thursday afternoon as the high pressure ridge exits
slowly e`ward. waves will remain 3 feet or less.

a strong cold front should sweep se`ward across lake erie thursday
evening and cause sw`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to
nw`erly to n`erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. waves should
build to as large as 3 to 5 feet and a small craft advisory should
be needed. behind the front, a strong high pressure ridge should
build from the northern great plains and vicinity through friday.
winds should be primarily nw`erly to n`erly and ease gradually to
around 5 to 15 knots by friday evening. waves initially as large as
3 to 6 feet should subside to 3 feet or less by sunset friday
evening.

on saturday, the ridge should exit se`ward from lake erie and allow
another warm front to sweep generally n`ward across the lake. then,
a subtle trough should move generally e`ward across lake erie. this
weather pattern evolution should allow winds around 5 to 15 knots to
back from n`erly to sw`erly and then veer to w`erly. waves should
remain 3 feet or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mb
aviation...sullivan
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 242216
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
616 pm edt tue mar 24 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend tuesday through thursday.

- a strong cold front brings chances (60-90%) for showers and
storms thursday afternoon into thursday evening. some storms
could be severe with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes possible. the greatest severe weather
threat appears to be between 5pm and 11pm edt on thursday.
some locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

- colder air will funnel back in on friday, with gradual moderation
next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 335 pm edt tue mar 24 2026

broad mid level subsidence continues this afternoon with a dry
airmass expected to persist through the first part of wednesday. mid
level warm advection will strengthen tonight which should result in
some periods of broken to overcast mid level cloud cover into
wednesday. the next eastern pacific disturbance is expected to move
inland across pacific northwest on wednesday which will induce some
mid level height rises across the northern plains and transition to
more of a westerly upstream low-mid level wind profile late
tonight into wednesday. lee troughing east of the rockies will
develop in this pattern with westerly flow regime eventually
advecting this modified warmer air eastward across the mid ms
valley wednesday night and eventually to the ohio valley on
thursday. a low level theta-e ridge accompanying this evolution
is also expected to amplify and reach the western great
lakes/ohio valley wednesday night. some increase in elevated
instability with this initial theta-e advection could promote
isolated to scattered showers and storms late wednesday night,
particularly south of i-80 based on current guidance projection
of where this advective forcing will be more pronounced.
otherwise, the moderating temperature trend will continue into
wednesday with highs from around 60 northeast to the upper 60s
southwest.

by thursday, the short wave induced mid level ridging will become
dampened to a greater extent by a strong eastern pacific jet
tracking across southern canada and broad upper vort lobe rotating
across ontario. this should allow a broad low level cold front to
sharpen from the central plains to the southern great lakes thursday
afternoon. an elevated mixed layer is expected to overspread
this frontal from the rockies during the day thursday which will
likely create capped conditions through early to mid afternoon.
by late afternoon, potential of convection should increase near
this frontal boundary as large scale lift/isentropic forcing
help to partially weaken or lift the inversion heights
associated with the eml. some uncertainty remains regarding
initiation time given initial capping, but would expect some
enhanced low level convergence with lake breeze enhanced
boundary near the front might represent some of the initial
convection.

consensus of cam solutions indicates a pronounced instability
gradient across northern indiana by thursday evening which will
likely be a focal point for convective initiation as better pooled
low level moisture by evening helps to overcome any lingering weak
cin. it does appear that combination of temps in mid 70s to lower
80s and dew points from upper 50s to mid 60s should support mlcapes
of 1000-1500 j/kg with a good deal of deep layer shear. the low
level kinematic fields are still somewhat uncertain,
specifically just how well mixed the warm sector will be which
will affect the potential hazards of wind vs tornado potential.
large hail will also be possible given the presence of the eml,
and if supercell structures develop, this could support some
higher end large hail in excess of 1.50" in diameter. the current
expectation is that a messy mixed-mode of convection would be
possible with some small component of background shear normal to
the boundary, some initial discrete development is expected. by
later in the evening, expecting this to quickly grow upscale to
more of a linear mode given strong frontal forcing and majority
of shear parallel to the boundary. the greatest severe threat
still appears to be in the 21z-03z period. additional storms are
possible after 02 or 03z but might trend more elevated given
expected southward progression of cold front. these storms late
in the event could still pose some risk of hail through late
evening.


the other potential hazard thursday night is heavy rain/flooding.
low level moisture axis should be more efficiently pooled by
thursday evening across the area, with strong moisture convergence
along and just behind the sfc front. this could yield a band of 1-2"
rainfall amounts across southern half/southeast half of the area,
with a potential of locally higher amounts in stronger convective
elements.

a trend back to cooler/blustery conditions is in store for friday
behind the front with moderation back to the upper 50s to around 60
by the end of the weekend. flow will deamplify once again by early
next week which will be supportive of continued moderation in temps.
the active eastern pacific pattern will continue across southern
canada which will make local area prone to additional stronger
synoptic cold fronts by the middle of next week with additional
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 614 pm edt tue mar 24 2026

the surface high pressure system that has been well east of the
area off the east coast will continue to move away from the
region and become absorbed in the subtropical ridge. farther
west, low pressure has been developing across the rockies and
into the high plains. the pressure gradient between these 2
systems has been causing south winds over northern indiana. some
wind gusts may range from 15 to 20 knots wednesday afternoon.
this scenario will remain in place through the taf period.
temperature/dew point spreads were hovering around 25 degrees
and with little initial moisture advective, not much chance for
fog tonight. high confidence that vfr conditions will prevail
through the entire taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 250354
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1154 pm edt tue mar 24 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry and turning much warmer wednesday and thursday.

- showers are likely thursday, with a few embedded thunderstorms
possible, but severe weather potential is low.

- colder air fills in thursday night and friday, then a warming
trend ensues over the weekend and into next week.

&&

.aviation...

lingering high pressure will maintain influence through overnight,
ensuring vfr conditions within a dry and stable low level
environment. periodic intervals of thicker high based cloud will
drift through at times as an area of low pressure tracks by to the
north. vfr maintained into wednesday as high cloud remains thick at
times. light winds generally from the southeast tonight, becoming
southerly near 10 knots wednesday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 237 pm edt tue mar 24 2026

discussion...

a thicker canopy of clouds persists this evening and into the
overnight hours, associated with an axis of troughing that extends
from the great lakes into far northern quebec. forward progress of
this feature slows due to the persistence of a lower tropospheric
anticyclone. it will eventually dislodge from the upper ohio valley,
and then drift toward the mid-atlantic overnight. after veering
westerly, weakening flow flips southeasterly late tonight after the
departure of surface high pressure influence. still chilly tonight
as temperatures drop to around the freezing mark.

a confluent warm advection regime moves in from the southwest on
wednesday as geopotential heights start to rise. longer wavelength
ridging aloft begins dislodging from western conus, reinforcing a
period of warming temperatures locally through thursday. an elevated
warm front lifts in wednesday marked by 925 mb temperatures rising
above 0c across the forecast area. in spite of shallow mixing depths
and more cloud cover than sun, readings should still peak above
normal (mid to upper 50s). differential temperature advection
continues wednesday night as 925 mb temperatures cross into the
double digits (celsius) and the nocturnal temperature curve remains
nearly-flat. a mainly dry forecast is advertised wednesday and
wednesday night, but since the cam window now extends through 12z,
some disagreements exist.

no prevailing precipitation concerns wednesday or wednesday night,
but a period of upper level divergence with a saturated mid-upper
column lends marginal pops midday. however, forecast soundings are
very dry (and stable) below 700 mb (9.5 kft agl), thus favoring just
a bit of virga or sprinkles. a speed max embedded within the apex of
the flattening ridge strengthens over the northern great lakes late
wednesday night triggering convection, while nocturnal instability
over northern indiana/ohio leads to the same. as of now, southeast
michigan appears buffered from these features, therefore a dry
forecast will be maintained through 12z thursday.

an elongated corridor of troughing/baroclinicity gets forced in from
the west on thursday, complete with low-level thetae advection ahead
of it. the preceding warm sector will be quite warm, although
unlikely to break any records (81f in 2007 at dtw). a cold frontal
passage is expected to eventually produce scattered to widespread
showers, including some thunderstorms, as it moves through thursday.
questions remain as to the productivity of the pre-frontal warm
sector as medium-range solutions are split on qpf through the midday
southwest-flow regime. greatest qpf potential exists along the
frontal zone with a strong fgen response, but limitations exist in
the favorability of the ambient environment. mid-level lapse rates
are poor, and surface-based instability is far from guaranteed (see
24.12z nam and operational gfs). but given a jump in effective shear
(+40 knots) and opportunities for periods of elevated instability
(mucape), a few embedded storms are probable. severe threat will
remain low, unless sbcape trends much higher. this would
predominantly present a wind threat.

the front should clear through by late evening thursday, concluding
precipitation, and leading to a quick post-frontal cooldown. flash-
freeze concerns exist north of the m-46 corridor where temperatures
drop further and earlier, but stronger gradient winds should help to
evaporate residual surface water thursday night further south. highs
will be about 30f colder friday compared to thursday, then a gradual
warm-up begins through the weekend and into next week. a series of
northern shortwaves offer a few chances for light rain showers
sunday and monday.

marine...

a weak cold front tied to northern ontario low pressure glances the
northern portions of lake huron late this afternoon-evening offering
a few snow showers. front vacates latter half of the evening
allowing winds across the central great lakes to weaken and turn
light overnight. midweek period is characterized by low pressure
passing just to our north over lake superior/northern ontario. aside
for a chance at rain-snow showers over northern lake huron,
southerly winds remain modest around or below 20kts. this system
eventually drags a fairly strong cold front through the great lakes
latter half of the day thursday bringing scattered to numerous rain
showers as well as thunderstorm chances thursday evening over the
southern great lakes. a few of these storms could be strong to
severe with wind and hail being the main hazards. northerly winds
quickly strengthen behind the front late thursday evening/night with
a few hour period where gusts could approach gales (currently ~25%
chance to reach 34kts).

hydrology...

showers are likely thursday as a cold front quickly moves through
lower michigan. a few embedded thunderstorms are possible, more so
for areas along/south of i-94. consensus modeled rainfall totals
remain between a quarter and a half inch through thursday evening.
flood potential is rather low, but ponding amidst low-lying and poor
drainage areas may develop, especially if any heavier thunderstorm
activity occurs. localized exceedance of a half inch of rainfall
could occur. mainly dry conditions are expected from now until
thursday, and then again over the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
hydrology....kgk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.