Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
897
fxus61 kcle 231135
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 am edt sat may 23 2026

.what has changed...
there are a couple minor changes and noteworthy forecast
adjustments to address with this morning update. there may be a
low potential for an isolated strong storm or two to develop
this afternoon across northern ohio. the other forecast
change is regarding drier weather is now expected for memorial
day on monday. the rest of the forecast from the previous update
has not changed in an impactful way.

&&

.key messages...
1.) two rounds of showers and isolated thunder is expected
today through sunday evening. much of the area will see a soaker
this weekend with moderate to locally heavy rainfall of 1.0 to
1.5 inches.

2.) a warmer and drier weather pattern will begin to take shape
over the great lakes and upper ohio valley starting monday. this
summer-like weather will continue for much of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the first of two weather systems that will impact our memorial
day weekend has arrive early this morning with widespread rain
showers and breezy conditions. a weak low pressure system is
currently tracking northeastward across the upper ohio valley
this morning. this weather system has a rather high tropical moisture
content in the atmosphere to work with as it moves through today
and evening. the forecast hasn`t changed much from the previous
updates. we are expected the highest pops to be this morning and
areawide coverage. the rain showers and possible isolated
thunder will become most scattered in nature by late morning or
midday but pops will remain in the moderate to higher range.
the track of this surface low will lift across the western basin
of lake erie this afternoon. a rather stout southeasterly low
level flow and breezy conditions will continue east of this low
pressure for much of today over neoh and nwpa. there will be
several hours later today of possibly elevated gusty winds with
a downsloping effect across the immediate lakeshore zones of
neoh and especially erie county pa. wind gusts may be up to 45
mph possible late today into early this evening. rainfall
amounts of 1.0 to 1.5 inches are expected areawide today through
sunday evening. some minor water level rises may be possible on
area streams and drainage basins due to the heavier rainfall
this weekend.

there is one forecast adjustment and note worthy update to
convey in regards to this afternoon. there is a low potential
for an isolated strong or two that could develop ahead a weak
surface trough/boundary over north central and northeast ohio.
as the surface low lifts northeast into southern ontario late
today, it does appear that some scattered low top convection
that will develop along a trailing weak surface trough. this
atmospheric setup later today is similar to a very tropical
environment with just enough 0-6km shear around 30 knots and
storm relative helicity values up to 150 m2/s2. with that said,
spc has mentioned a very low 2 percent probability for an
isolated brief tornado risk in their latest outlook today. it
will be something that we will monitor as the potential is very
low but not zero given this setup this afternoon. the timing of
the scattered convection to keep an eye on will be between 12 pm
and 6 pm, generally moving across northern ohio from west to
east.

today`s storm system will move out later this evening with rain
chances decreasing areawide overnight. there will be a lull in
pops late tonight through sunday morning or midday. the next
weak surface trough will move in from west to east later on
sunday into the evening bringing a second round of showers and
isolated thunder. this system will be more progressive and not
as widespread with coverage of showers. rainfall amounts will be
light around a quarter of an inch or less for most locations.
that 2nd weather system will move out of the area late sunday
night.

key message 2...
there is some better news in regards to a forecast change on
monday and this memorial day. the forecast is looking nicer and
drier with fair weather expected for outdoor activities. high
pressure will build in over the region starting monday. skies
will eventually clear out from west to east on monday becoming
partly cloudy along with warmer temperatures. monday`s
afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide.
the model guidance still in fair to good agreement that an omega
block like weather pattern will develop over the north central
u.s. and build into the great lakes region through much of
next week. this pattern should favor much warmer temperatures
and mostly drier forecast. high temperatures will climb into the
lower and middle 80s for several days by the middle of the week.
some scattered diurnal driven showers and convection may sneak
back into the forecast late next week or weekend. but overall,
it will start to feel and look more like summer next week.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
ifr to low mvfr ceilings are observed across the region as rain
showers move north. the showers will persists through the
morning with a break midday today that will help improve
ceilings up to mvfr for most sites. there will be a chance for
a thunderstorm across the southeastern terminals of kcak and
kyng this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the region.
by early sunday morning, there is guidance showing lifr
conditions across much of central into northern ohio, though
have opted to use a low ifr ceilings for this taf issuance.

winds across the region are out of the southeast at 10-15 knots
and gusting to 20-25, with the higher gusts across the eastern
terminals. winds for the western terminals will be lighter as
they will be underneath the surface low as it moves north. those
will shift to be out of the south- southwest as it pass this
afternoon. elsewhere, gusty winds are expected to continue
through the taf period and shift to be more out of the south by
this afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr expected late sunday into early monday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory will continue for the western half of the
lake until 10am this morning as the low pressure system tracks
across that portion and winds begin to subside. an additional
small craft advisory has been issued for the eastern half of the
lake until 4am sunday as southerly winds will downslope creating
winds of 20-25 knots. with offshore flow, waves in the nearshore
will be 2-4 feet and 3-6 feet in the open waters. high pressure
will build into the region throughout the day sunday and winds
and waves will begin to subside as a response. expect light and
variable winds with waves 1 foot or less through mid week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for
ohz003-007-009-010.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...23
marine...23/26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
186
fxus63 kiwx 231034
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 am edt sat may 23 2026

.key messages...

- rain continues to overspread the area from south to north
tonight, then tapers off from west to east on saturday.
locally heavy rainfall (1" plus), mainly for portions of
northwest ohio.

- another system moves through on sunday with a chance for
showers (50-70%) and isolated storms

- warmer and mainly dry next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 327 am edt sat may 23 2026

shortwave circulation currently moving northward through the
area. a pronounced dry slot in precipitation has developed and
is currently centered over kfwa as of 0730z. rainfall amounts
thus far has been pretty varied with values around 0.75" from
kfwa and eastward while lighter amounts over the western
portions of the cwa have fallen. here at the weather office we
had about 0.13" as of 06z. this circulation will begin to move
northeasterly through the day today with rain chances
diminishing from west to east through the late afternoon.
highs today will also be fairly varied with northerly locations
under the main cloud band a bit cooler with values in the mid to
upper 60s while for the southern half of the cwa where the
clouds begin to break will see values in the low to mid 70s. winds
will also be breezy to gusty this morning with the shortwave
circulation in close proximity. gusts generally around 15 to 20
mph this morning. this afternoon will feel a bit on the muggy
side with surface dew points in the upper 50 to upper 60s with
the better moisture set up to the southeastern portions of the
cwa.

another weaker disturbance associated with an upper level trough
containing less impressive forcing but better surface
instability with warmer temperatures (highs in the mid to upper
70s) pushes through the area on sunday. this will bring another
round of showers but a better chances for embedded
thunderstorms. however, none of the thunderstorms are expected
to become severe with the lack of decent forcing and shear
components.

by monday, upper level ridging begins to push into the great
lakes region in the wake of the trough. this will allow for
clearing skies and lighter winds along with further warming.
highs for the memorial day holiday will warm to the lower 80s
across the area. it will still feel more on the muggy side
however the more moist airmass will be displaced south of the
area with the ridging in place and will keep it that way until
wednesday when an increase in moisture will push northward with
a higher amplitude longwave ridge building over the southeastern
us northwestward into central canada. this will bring a jump in
dew points into the upper 60s to around the low 70s and increase
chances in instability showers/t-storms. some uncertainty in the
guidance increases beyond wednesday as the ridging looks to
remain in place into the end of the week. highs in the low 80s
look to continue through the work week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 632 am edt sat may 23 2026


mainly mvfr to ifr cig/vsbys for both terminals this period,
with very moist low levels cigs drop into lifr levels this
morning along with the northerly moving area of widespread rain
showers and even periods of drizzle possible. a rumble of
thunder or two is possible but very low confidence of that at
this time and opted to keep out of the forecast attm. as the
circulation lifts northward through the area from ky before
shifting more northeasterly into this evening. rain showers look
to diminish from west to east this evening and cigs improve to
mvfr around 21z sat. winds shift from e-ne to w-nw, likely
around 15-18z and beyond. gusts up to around 25 knots are
possible through the late evening hours tonight. a

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
212
fxus63 kdtx 231045
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
645 am edt sat may 23 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain continues this morning. below normal temperatures
this afternoon.

- chance for rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow
afternoon.

- warming trend through the early week period.

&&

.aviation...

showers are in the process of lifting into se mi early this morning
in advance of approaching low pressure. this has supported
widespread ifr cigs/vsbys which will persist through the rest of the
morning. low center is set to track over or near detroit late
morning-afternoon offering the potential for periods of lifr
ceilings over the detroit terminals based on current upstream obs
over the ohio valley. shower coverage wanes this afternoon with
widely scattered light showers or drizzle looking most probable into
the early evening before tapering off. confidence in any thunderstorm
development remains too low for inclusion in current tafs.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000ft today and tonight.

* low for ceilings and visibilities to fall to 200ft or 1/2sm
today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 344 am edt sat may 23 2026

discussion...

low pressure now centered over the lower ohio valley will continue
to progress into far southeast michigan and western lake erie before
washing out across ontario and quebec. this will continue to support
widespread rain showers across se mi through the morning hours.
locally higher rainfall totals are expected generally along or south
of a line from port huron to adrian. this will be tied to the
enhanced rainfall rates from the 850-750 mb frontogenetic response
northeast of the surface low, where this low-level jet and
isentropic ascent is maximized. elevated rates will be possible now
through 10am edt which will bring the potential to achieve rainfall
totals aoa 1". cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with any better
forcing, but lack of instability favors rain showers for most
locations.

the associated mid-level wave brings lighter rain showers up through
the flint area and tri-cities to thumb. shallow moisture depths up
through 5kft will then support drizzle to periodic light rain
showers through the afternoon hours. have trended temperatures down
given prolonged period of rain potential and extensive early day
cloud cover, capping highs in the 50s for most locations. the
exception will be closer to the mi/oh border up through the metro
region, where there will be some potential to briefly push in the
warm sector as the low exits northeast. this could quickly push
temperatures well into the 60s.

a lull in activity is expected late this evening and overnight
before a mid-level wave brings renewed rain chances in the afternoon
hours tomorrow. modest instability of several hundred j/kg will bring
the chance for embedded thunderstorms. temperatures will return to
seasonal normals with highs in the 70s. the remainder of the forecast
period will be influenced by an expansive canadian high pressure
that will gradually increase in proximity and intensity leading into
the late week period. forcing will be nebulous and greatly limits
rain chances outside of some low-end potential under the early week
zonal flow with embedded glancing shortwaves, or a backdoor cold
front along the expanding high pressure during the mid to late week
period. but otherwise, warmer mon - wed with highs in the 80s. slightly
cooler temperatures build in to end the week in the wake of the
aforementioned front.

marine...

small craft advisories continue for all nearshore waters with strong
onshore flow. easterly winds gusting 25 to 30 knots will persist
much of the day as surface low slow tracks north from the northern
ohio valley. widespread rain showers and a very low chance of
thunderstorms will also continue to expand north through the day as
low. the low will weaken and dissipate late saturday into saturday
night over lake huron, leading to lighter winds for the second half
of the weekend. however, another upper-level disturbance will bring a
good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over lake erie and
lake st. clair on sunday.

high pressure returns monday and slips east into the mid-atlantic
states on tuesday, maintaining generally light winds.

hydrology...

widespread rainfall continues through the morning hours with totals
ranging between a quarter inch to three quarter inch for most
locations. localized higher rainfall rates will be possible roughly
along and southeast of a line from port huron to adrian which brings
potential for totals to an inch or slightly higher. moderate rainfall
rates will be most likely between 4am - 10am. overall dry conditions
for much of the area over the past 30 days suggests the potential
for flooding is low, aside from typical isolated flood prone
locations in the urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through this evening for miz048-049-055-063.

beach hazards statement until 4 pm edt this afternoon for miz070-
076.

beach hazards statement until 10 am edt this morning for miz083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz422.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...am
marine.......sf
hydrology....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.