Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
905
fxus61 kcle 161958
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
358 pm edt thu apr 16 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to this forecast package and still expecting
another round of convection into this evening, a strong cold front
to come through saturday, and freeze potential sunday night and
monday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) convection beginning this afternoon with another severe
potential through the evening hours.

2) a strong cold front with another round of severe weather
expected saturday, along with significant temperature drops
behind the cold front.

3) frost/freeze confidence growing for sunday night and monday
night in the chillier canadian airmass.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
currently awaiting the erosion of a mid level cap from north central
ohio eastward at the time of this issuance, and with heating
occurring, instability that results is expected to result in another
round of storms. modest low level jet exists ahead of an eastward
propagating surface trough and 0-6km bulk shear remains on the
higher side at 50-60kts. this will combine with the buoyancy after
the mid level cap erodes for another round of storms east of i-75
with isolated severe thresholds possible. peak window for this will
be 18z-02z friday with activity winding down tonight in a stabilized
environment that will stretch through friday. this thermal surface
trough will bring temperatures slightly cooler by around 5f heading
through the afternoon friday.

key message 2...
another warm front and a brief residence period in the warm sector
for saturday ahead of an airmass changing cold front that will track
through the cwa. after a quiet friday, this will put the region back
into the threat for severe weather with increasing low/mid level
flows and renewed buoyancy in the afternoon hours with dewpoints
back towards the 60f mark. cold frontal timing will be around 16z
through 23z give or take an hour or two, and expecting line segments
and mainly a wind threat. the warm sector destabilization is going
to play a key role in how this evolves, however, and only in a small
area of slight from the swo d3.

key message 3...
in the wake of the cold front, a much more seasonably cold airmass
expected to drop into the great lakes under canadian high pressure,
and will see 850mb temperatures that have consistently been in the
upper single digits to low teens to fall into the -7c to -12c range
by monday morning. currently have low temperatures by monday morning
to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, and with the growing season now
begun, the need for frost and freeze products is increasing in
confidence. this could now carry over into monday night/tuesday
morning for the eastern half of the cwa as the surface high pressure
will only be getting east of the cwa tuesday morning to allow for
surface return flow. some warm air advection off the surface in the
lower levels should be enough to keep a second freeze threat out of
the western half of the cwa. as the pops exit sunday, some wet
snowflakes could fall sunday evening for the far eastern cwa. monday
high temperatures may not get out of the upper 30s for the far
eastern portions of our nw pa counties. temperatures rebound into
the 60s primarily after monday and into mid week next week.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
at the surface, a weak trough lingers over our region before a
cold front sweeps se`ward across northern oh and nw pa between
~22z/thurs and ~06z/fri. behind the front, a ridge builds from
the northern great lakes through 18z/thurs. our regional surface
winds trend sw`erly around 10 to 15 knots ahead of the front.
these winds will gust up to about 20 to 25 knots at times,
especially before 23z/thurs. behind the front, w`erly to nw`erly
winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected for several hours before
becoming light and variable. however, a lake erie lake breeze is
expected to develop after ~16z/fri and impact locations within
several miles of the shoreline, including kcle and keri.

isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are
expected along and ahead of the surface front, while scattered
rain showers associated with the upper-reaches of the front
should linger for roughly two to four hours after the surface
front passage. brief mvfr to lifr should accompany showers and
especially storms. thunderstorms will be capable of producing
brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots. vfr
are expected outside the showers/storms.

lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall and our
regional surface winds becoming weak or calm should allow
widespread radiation mist/fog and nocturnal stratus to develop
over our region and generally from north to south between
~07z/fri and ~11z/fri. widespread mvfr to lifr are expected
with these low clouds and mist/fog. vfr should return after
~14z/fri as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
erodes the low clouds and mist/fog.

outlook...periodic rain showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
are expected during the predawn hours of saturday morning
through saturday evening. additional periods of rain with non-
vfr should occur overnight saturday night through sunday
evening. rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at
times sunday morning and again sunday evening.

&&

.marine...
a weak trough lingers over lake erie before a cold front sweeps
se`ward across the lake this evening through tonight. behind
the front, another ridge builds from the northern great lakes
through friday. ahead of the cold front, winds trend sw`erly
around 5 to 15 knots with waves of 3 feet or less, but
occasional 4 footers are expected in open waters. behind the
front, winds veer to mainly w`erly to n`erly and ease to around
5 knots. accordingly, waves subside to 1 foot or less by
daybreak friday. on friday, variable winds around 5 to 10 knots
and waves of 2 feet or less are expected. these winds should
trend onshore during the late morning through early evening due
to lake breeze development.

during friday night through saturday morning, the ridge exits
e`ward and allows a warm front to sweep n`ward across lake
erie. mainly e`erly to se`erly winds of about 5 to 15 knots
ahead of the warm front veer to s`erly and freshen to around 10
to 20 knots behind the front. waves of mainly 3 feet or less are
expected, but occasional 4 to 5 footers should occur in open
u.s. waters of the central basin based on forecast fetch. a
strong cold front should sweep e`ward across lake erie late
saturday afternoon through saturday night and allow sw`erly
winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to w`erly. waves should
build to as large as 3 to 6 feet and a small craft advisory
will likely be needed, especially east of the islands.

behind the cold front, a trough should linger over lake erie
through sunday night and be accompanied by w`erly to nw`erly
winds around 15 to 25 knots. waves should be as large as 3 to 7
feet. on monday, a ridge should build from the west and be
accompanied by winds becoming variable and easing to around 5 to
10 knots. waves are forecast to subside to 2 feet or less by
sunset monday evening. the ridge should exit e`ward and allow a
warm front to move generally n`ward across lake erie monday
night through tuesday. the light and variable winds ahead of the
front should give way to s`erly to sw`erly winds freshening to
around 15 to 25 knots behind the front. waves should be mainly 3
feet or less, but occasional 4 to 5 footers are expected in the
open waters.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
246
fxus63 kiwx 161752
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
152 pm edt thu apr 16 2026

.key messages...

- widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly
along and north of us 30.

- areas of fog possible late tonight into early friday, especially
near lake michigan.

- unseasonably warm on friday with highs near 80 degrees.

- a round of showers and thunderstorms track through friday night
into saturday morning. a few storms could become severe with
damaging winds the primary threat.

- cooler air arrives saturday night into early next week. this
may bring frost and freeze concerns, especially early monday
morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 152 pm edt thu apr 16 2026

cold pocket aloft with a dampening upper wave and near 60f sfc
dewpoints promoting some weak lift/instability this afternoon
for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. a lake breeze
making slow inland penetration will likely provide an additional
focus with best chances (30-50%) for measurable rain north of
the us 30 corridor. deeper moisture exiting east will limit
coverage a bit with stronger cells potentially containing small
hail and 30-50 mph wind gusts. shortwave ridging then follows in
tonight into friday morning with the potential for fog given
residual sfc moisture, light winds and clearing skies.

return flow and ample sunshine in advance of the next system will
make for an unseasonably warm friday with highs near 80. another
round of convection then becomes the concern friday night into
saturday morning as a more pronounced upper trough and strong cold
front track through. robust upstream convective initiation will
be back toward the mid/upper ms valleys late friday afternoon,
likely congealing into a linear segment/qlcs with eastward
progression friday evening. the unfavorable diurnal timing and
resulting lesser cape should favor a gradual weakening trend as
this moves west to east through the area late friday evening
into early saturday. however, will still have to monitor for
damaging winds given favorable shear/flow profiles and low 60f
sfc dewpoints, especially west of interstate 69. showers then
likely linger along the frontal boundary and associated corridor
of deeper moisture saturday morning, with cooler and drier
conditions likely for the second half of the day through early
next week post-frontal.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 142 pm edt thu apr 16 2026

the upper trof and associated sfc low are translating across
the gtlks region this aftn and evening. while the deeper
moisture has shifted east, sctd showers have developed over ne
il and far nw in ahead of the sfc trof. have included the
mention of tsra at ksbn for the first few hours of the terminal
fcst.

as the trof settles into the region, winds diminish, and
residual moisture trapped beneath a rather strong llvl inversion
expect cigs to lower and vsby drop to one mile or lower for
both sites. conditions should improve within a couple of hours
after sunrise.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...frazier

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
517
fxus63 kdtx 161922
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
322 pm edt thu apr 16 2026

.key messages...

-a flood watch remains in effect for wet soils, additional rainfall,
and rivers at flood stage until 9 pm this evening.

-a few thunderstorms emerge this afternoon with minimal severe
threat, but isolated marginally severe sized hail cannot be ruled
out.

-dry on friday before a strong cold front brings rain and a few
thunderstorms late friday night into saturday morning.

-breezy and much colder sunday with a few lake showers mixing with
wet snowflakes at times.

-seasonably cold monday morning with wind chills in the low 20s and
freeze conditions increasingly likely.

&&

.discussion...

the subtropical jet, as revealed in goes upper level water vapor
imagery, is currently positioned overhead, but will migrate eastward
this evening as a shortwave trough shears into the longwave axis.
cva associated with the shorter wavelength feature ensures continued
showers over the next several hours, given the tendency for forced
ascent across lower michigan. a survey of forecast soundings
suggests that narrow surface dewpoint depressions favor a period of
surface-based instability this afternoon as the next infusion of
thetae modifies moisture profiles by increasing cape. effective bulk
shear will be decreasing, opposite the build-up of instability.
thunder potential exists while uvvs are augmented by the system`s
vortmax, but the severe threat should be limited. the next round of
convection has begun to percolate, but coverage should predominantly
remain scattered. since hodographs and 0-1 km srh indicate limited
capability for low-level rotation, and with pwats dropping below
1.25 inches, the main threat should be marginally severe hail, more
so for storms residing along the instability gradient, peaking near
750 j/kg (sbcape). convection concludes after surface flow veers wnw
and omega flips positive, by 03z tonight.

shortwave ridging quickly back-fills lower michigan tonight offering
deep-layer drying and stabilization for most of friday. a very
shallow mixed-layer arises, maintaining a blanket of stratocumulus
cloud, at least through midday. winds become light and variable as
the pressure gradient becomes diffuse.

conditions deteriorate friday night into saturday as an amplified
eastern pacific trough phases with southern stream energy, and digs
across central conus. confluent lower column flow, displaced further
downstream of the composite mid/upper level wave, advects moisture
rich gulf air into the great lakes by 03z (saturday) within an
elevated warm frontal zone. the elongated 55-65 knot low level jet
can be traced from central ontario, back to ne texas. this inbound
air helps to quickly saturate the column, marked by an increase in
pwats of over 200 percent from 00z to 09z saturday. the resulting
line of showers/thundershowers should move in from the west,
although the environment it moves into will be less impressive from
a thermodynamic perspective. the expectation is that convection
should weaken somewhat as it crosses into the forecast area, as it
outruns the plume of mucape that will struggle to lift into lower
michigan.

a very strong cold front extending from the surface low over
northern lower provides the fgen response for a secondary wave of
precipitation, after the nocturnal line clears through. lower
confidence in coverage with the frontally forced showers, thunder
should be limited. sensible temperatures crash quickly behind the
frontal slope with 850 mb temperatures dropping from 10c at 12z
saturday to sub-zero (celsius) by 00z saturday evening. cold
advection ensues amidst wnw flow overnight.

after a stretch of june-like weather, conditions turn reminiscent of
march on sunday as highs hold in the 40s for most. a few lake effect
showers could stream into southeast michigan, some of which may mix
in some snowflakes. a well-mixed boundary-layer supports a breezy
day, gusting 25-30 mph. potential exists for skies to clear out
sunday night, which could lead to widespread lows in the 20s. now
that the growing season is underway for most of southeast michigan
(south of m-46), a freeze warning will likely be needed sunday night
into monday morning, if current trends hold.

height rises build in monday as a period of ridging unfolds, before
catalyzing the next warm-up after shifting to a return flow setup on
tuesday. the ridge should also help deflect several disturbances
working across the canadian prairies mid-week.

&&

.marine...

periodic rounds of showers/storms continue through the evening with
an isolated severe storm possible over the southern great lakes.
system peels away from the region late tonight ushering in a brief
period of high pressure friday bringing lighter winds and dry
conditions. broad low pressure tracking through northern ontario
will then drag a respectable cold front through the great lakes
daytime saturday generating yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. moderate to strong
cold advection follows for sunday with northwest winds peaking
around 30 knots. while a couple gusts near gales are possible,
overall potential remains low (<30%).

&&

.hydrology...

given wet soils, additional rainfall, and rivers at flood stage
(tittabawassee, saginaw, and cass), the flood watch remains in
effect for all of southeast michigan until 9 pm this evening.
additional showers continue this afternoon and evening with some
thunderstorms leading to localized heavy downpours. repeat storms
over the same area could provide additional rainfall totals in
excess of 1 inch, offering a heightened risk for flood sensitivity.
briefly drier conditions emerge by 03z tonight, followed by
additional rounds of showers and some thunderstorms ahead of a
strong cold front late friday and saturday morning. pace of
additional convection should limit rainfall totals to less than a
half inch.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1247 pm edt thu apr 16 2026

aviation...

disturbed conditions will continue through today`s operational
period. current widespread light rain with pockets of deeper
convection - not lightning producing at this time, will give way to
congealed deep convection / thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon. the
main formation axis will be near or just west of fnt/ptk, then pivot
southeast through the late afternoon and early evening hours. as
the system exits into ontario tonight, near surface cooling will
happen faster than drying - setting the stage for ifr fog formation
after midnight. fog will lift and thin during the late morning
friday - giving way to vfr and light wind conditions.

dtw/d21 convection... modest convection over the northern d21
airspace will be the predecessor of new development during the
afternoon. the zone containing scattered thunderstorms will pivot
to the southeast across the entire d21 airspace in the 20-01z time
window.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5000 ft this afternoon and tonight.

* medium for thunderstorms this afternoon.

* medium for ceilings below 200ft or visibilities below 1/2sm late
tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch until midnight edt tonight for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
hydrology....kgk
aviation.....mann


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.