Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
641
fxus61 kcle 031842
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
242 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

.what has changed...
have added some fog to the forecast for late tonight and early
tuesday morning, but otherwise the forecast remains on track and
no impactful changes were needed.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather expected through tuesday before shower and
thunderstorm chances return wednesday through late week. near normal
temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will maintain influence over the region through
tuesday, resulting in widespread dry weather over the next
couple of days. patchy to areas of radiation fog are possible
at inland locations primarily across ne oh/nw pa due to clear
skies and light winds, but as of now the likelihood of
significant impacts to visibilities is low.

rain chances will increase as a shortwave/weakening upper low
lifts north/northeast from the ohio valley on wednesday.
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible primarily in
the southeastern part of the area wednesday afternoon/evening,
but it`s still possible that most locations remain dry until an
upper trough and frontal boundary approach from the west
thursday and move across the area on friday. will need to keep
an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall late in the week given
mean flow parallel to the frontal boundary and forecast dew
points in the upper 60s and possibly lower 70s. there`s also
some potential for organized and perhaps strong thunderstorms at
some point late in the week, but confidence in the timing and
placement of synoptic features and the resulting thunderstorm
chances is still low at this point in the forecast cycle. rain
chances continue through the upcoming weekend as a series of
disturbances potentially cross the area.

temperatures will be near normal for the next several days with
temps possibly increasing to slightly above normal values over
the weekend. highs will be in the 80s each day with overnight
lows in the 60s, although tonight will be an exception with lows
in the 50s.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
vfr, no ceilings. winds now 10kts or less out of the north at
the surface, and will near calm overnight. might have brief br
at tol 10-12z tuesday. few-sct cumulus possible tuesday
afternoon fl035.

outlook...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
potential for non-vfr are possible on wednesday through friday,
primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
elevated northerly flow continues for the central basin of lake
erie. waves of 2 to 5 ft will continue through the late morning
hours with this flow and the small craft advisories and beach
hazards statements will remain until 11 am. high pressure
building into the region will allow for winds on the lake to
diminish through the day. winds will become light and variable
tonight into tuesday with the high over the region. high
pressure will shift east for tuesday night into wednesday and
some southerly winds will return to the lake before a lake
breeze kicks in on wednesday afternoon. several weak systems
passing to the northwest will allow for southwest flow to be
favored over the lake on thursday and continuing through the end
of the week. once marine headlines end later today, there are
not future marine headlines anticipated at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...26
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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133
fxus63 kiwx 031807
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
207 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions today into wednesday. expect partly to mostly
clear skies and light winds. highs will range from 77 to 86
degrees, warmest wednesday.

- chances for showers and storms return wednesday night and
persist into the weekend. the best potential (~30-60 percent)
will be wednesday night into thursday, then periods of
showers with generally lower chances (~20 to 40 percent)
through the weekend. highs will be in the 80s thursday into
the weekend, warmest sunday.

- warmer and more humid airmass moves into the region early next
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 118 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

upper level ridge axis sitting right over the region and then
goes back southwestward into the four corners region. this will
keep mostly clear skies across the area through wednesday
morning. pretty seasonable temperatures will also continue
across the area with highs in the upper 70s near lake michigan
and low 80s elsewhere through wednesday.

troughing centered over central canada will begin to push
south and eastward into the upper midwest and then into the
great lakes and will increase chances for showers/thunderstorms
for mainly the northwestern parts of the cwa by wednesday
evening and spread southeastward over the rest of the area
by early thursday as a cold front pushes through. the better
chances for precipitation at this time will be on thursday with
generally 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation across the
area. wpc has our cwa under a marginal chance of exceeding flash
flood guidance for wednesday night through thursday with pwats
of around 1.5" to almost 2" and surface dew points in the 70s along
and ahead of the frontal boundary. so will need to watch
carefully on how this develops over the next few days. a more
cyclonic flow to zonal flow then remains over the area well into
the weekend. this will bring the potential for periods of
showers/thunderstorms especially during the afternoon/early
evening periods.

ridging then develops over the southeast conus by monday and
builds northward into our area. this will bring warmer and more
humid conditions across the region next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1211 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

high pressure will continue to provide light winds and primarily
vfr conditions. there is some potential for patchy, shallow,
ground fog once again toward daybreak tomorrow, though
confidence in this impacting the terminals remains too low for a
mention in the taf.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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562
fxus63 kdtx 031840
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
240 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

.key messages...

- more sunshine tomorrow with highs in the 80s.

- the next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives wednesday
afternoon (north of m-59). better coverage is expected wednesday
night and thursday.

- mainly dry weather is expected to start the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

a much drier airmass is in place over southeast michigan today, as
the 12z dtx sounding checked in with a pw value of 0.72 inches and
28 c dew point depression at 700 mb. the 850-700 mb theta-e trough
will mostly hold in place through wednesday morning, as southeast
michigan lies in between the moisture axis from the advancing cold
front to the west and the large upper-level low/atlantic moisture
over southeastern united states. ultimately, the moisture axis with
the cold front will swing through wednesday night into thursday as
broad trough axis over the northern plains swings through the great
lakes region thursday into friday. timing, of course, plays a key
role in how much instability/cape will be in place to support
possible thunderstorms. at this point, cape/bulk shear profiles are
not overly impressive and remain on the lower side, so expecting
mainly non-severe storms with perhaps a marginal risk at best if
optimal timing works out. regardless, euro ensembles still show high
probability (~70 percent) of a tenth of an inch of more of qpf in
the wednesday evening through thursday evening time frame as the
front slowly tracks from northwest to southeast. even if the surface
front slips just south of the michigan border by friday morning, a
stronger shortwave lagging behind could still be sufficient to
trigger additional showers on friday south of m-59. both 12z
canadian and euro are showing similar solutions with this shortwave.

not much to note with respect to temperatures, as highs reach into
the 80s each day through the weekend, with mins mainly in the upper
50s to mid 60s (outside of tonight when mins fall into the 50s).

&&

.marine...

high pressure is firmly established across the central great lakes
today offering dry weather and light winds. winds decrease further
tonight while backing south-southwesterly by tuesday as the center
of the surface ridge slides across lake erie into appalachia. a weak
cold front will move in from the west and briefly stall out over
lake huron wednesday. this provides the first opportunity for
showers and a few thunderstorms for the latter half of the week.
several disturbances are expected to ripple through atop the
boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through thursday as the
front resumes forward progress toward the southern waterways. the
pressure gradient response appears minor through this period,
ensuring no long-fused headlines before the end of the week. drier
weather may briefly return friday and/or saturday, but the front
will stall out again in the vicinity, keeping low chances for
thunder nearby.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1228 pm edt mon aug 3 2026

aviation...

high pressure will drift across southeast michigan this afternoon
and evening, sustaining dry and stable conditions (vfr) across the
region with light winds this afternoon into tuesday morning. lake
breeze convergence and remnant moisture off the lakes may support a
few high based cu this evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through tuesday
afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kgk
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.