Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
159 am edt sat jun 20 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated showers this afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible saturday afternoon. widespread rainfall
expected sunday night through monday which may result in rises
on area rivers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
lingering upper level troughing will continue to influence the
region despite surface high pressure slowly building overhead
from the west. some isolated showers this afternoon across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania will
diminish later this evening. additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the day on saturday as a
shortwave aloft moves overhead. coverage will remain scattered
with the highest pops confined to southeastern zones.

the majority of saturday night into the daytime hours on sunday
will be dry as the shortwave exits the region. by sunday night
surface low pressure is forecast to approach from the west
before tracking across the ohio valley during the day on monday.
area pwats averaging ~1.75 inches are forecast which is well
above the 90th percentile for mid/late june. current rainfall
amounts sunday night through monday range between 1-1.5 inches
with slightly higher amounts of 1.5-1.75 inches across the
western third of the forecast area. locally heavy rainfall will
be possible in any strong thunderstorm and/or storms that train
over the same area. rises on area rivers are expected with the
possibility of a few rivers rising into minor flood stage. will
continue to monitor the track of the surface low and rainfall
amounts as we near closer to monday. wpc expanded the slight
risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall to include the
majority of the forecast area during this timeframe.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr will prevail through the taf cycle, but expect widely
scattered diurnally driven showers to develop beneath the cold
air aloft again this afternoon aided by a weak shortwave
dropping through the broad cyclonic flow. coverage should be
slightly higher than yesterday, but confidence is still low on
anything impacting a terminal. the greatest potential is at
kmfd, kcak, and kyng, so used vcsh there. otherwise, just a mid-
level cloud deck is expected today before scattering out
tonight.

light w winds early this morning will increase to 10-15 knots
this afternoon, gusting up to 25 knots at times. w winds will
decrease again tonight.

outlook...showers and storms are possible sunday afternoon
through tuesday morning with the potential for non-vfr
coverage.

&&

.marine...
quiet conditions are expected on lake erie today and most of
sunday, with w winds of 5-10 knots this morning increasing to
10-15 knots this afternoon before turning light and variable
tonight into sunday afternoon. conditions will start to change
sunday evening as low pressure moving out of the mississippi
valley lifts a warm front to just south of the lakeshore sunday
night. this will support e winds increasing to 15-25 knots
sunday night, turning ne at 15-25 knots monday behind the
trailing cold front as the low progresses toward the mid
atlantic. nne winds will then gradually decrease monday night,
turning nnw at 5-10 knots tuesday through wednesday as high
pressure builds down across the great lakes. small craft
advisories are likely sunday night and monday, with the highest
winds and waves expected in the western and central basins.



&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1259 am edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- light rain showers across the area tonight into early saturday
with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder especially for our far
northern portions.

- there is a moderate swim risk for berrien county southeast
lake michigan beaches on saturday morning.

- widespread, moderate to heavy rain is expected sunday evening
into monday with some embedded thunderstorms for especially
the southern third of the area. total rainfall amounts of 1-3"
are expected.

- cool weather persists through the next seven days with highs
in the 70s.

&&

.update...
issued at 952 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

broad low level moisture transport via westerly low level flow
is working across the southern great lakes region this evening.
this moisture transport is occurring downstream of a fairly
compact upper vort max across west central wisconsin.
instability is on the meager side upstream across illinois, with
pocket of 500-1000 j/kg sfc based capes tied more to cold
frontal boundary across southern minnesota into western
wisconsin closer to the upper vort max. this instability across
mn/wi should wane over next few hours with just an expectation
of scattered showers affecting the local area overnight. while
cannot completely rule out an isolated rumble of thunder with
short term progs depicting 100-200 j/kg of mucape, feel that
thunder potential is low enough to omit from forecast at this
time. previous forecast has this captured well and no
significant changes are anticipated to the first period
forecast at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 133 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

cool weather continues (highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s) with
a thickening cumulus deck into this evening as a weak
disturbance moves through the great lakes region and skirts our
area to the north into saturday early morning hours. periodic
chances of rain and thunderstorms will continue over the next
several days with a cyclonic flow aloft in place due to a broad
low circulation centered over central canada.

we will see a short break saturday night into sunday morning
before a stronger disturbance moves eastward into the region on
sunday into monday and right now there is question to exactly
where the circulation exactly tracks. as the further north the
storm tracks the better the chances for thunderstorms (perhaps
strong to severe) would be for parts of our cwa. as of this
afternoon consensus is for a little further south track which
would lower our chances for the stronger storms and a bit less
rainfall that most of the area will see with the circulation
deformation zone overhead on the north side of the system. spc
currently has a general thunderstorms threat for our
southwestern portions of the cwa with a marginal threat just on
the fringe of white county. wpc also has our entire area under a
slight risk for the excessive rainfall outlook for day 3.
current thinking is total rainfall will range 1 to 2 inches with
the possibility of a few locations hitting the 3 inch mark. the
heaviest rainfall will fall across the southern portions of the
area but again will need to closely monitor the exact track as
that will dictate if we see higher/lower amounts.

another break in activity is expected by monday evening into
tuesday before another system moves into the area late tuesday
into wednesday. details are a bit sparse right now with this
system but in the coming days we will have a better idea. this
looks to be another system to watch.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 1259 am edt sat jun 20 2026

a weak shortwave passing just north of the area could bring a
few sprinkles over the next 3-5 hours but dry low levels will
ensure vfr conditions and the risk of thunder appears very low.
mainly clear skies expected the rest of the period. winds will
gust in the 20-25 kt range during the afternoon, especially at
kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...andersen
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
116 am edt sat jun 20 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers are possible saturday morning. additional
chances saturday afternoon in addition to isolated thunderstorm
chances.

- broader coverage of showers and thunderstorms possible sunday
evening and overnight, especially south of i-94.

- cooler than normal temperatures are expected through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

weak area of low pressure traversing the region this morning will
maintain some pockets of light shower activity within a thicker
canopy of vfr cloud featuring bases primarily within the 6 to 10k ft
level. a brief reduction of ceiling near mvfr will be plausible as
ascent tied to this feature peaks later this morning mainly at mbs.
a weakly unstable environment will emerge in the wake augmented by
daytime heating. this will maintain potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during peak heating,
with higher probability from ptk northward based on latest model
trends. brief gustiness up to 20 knots to prevailing westerly wind
for the late day period.

d21/dtw convection... very low chance of a thunderstorm late tonight
and again saturday afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5 kft late tonight and saturday.

* very low for thunderstorm occurrence late tonight and saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 247 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

discussion...

healthy diurnal cumulus response today as weak mid-level cold
advection has supported steepening lower level lapse rates. weak
resultant instability (<500 j/kg) is focused over the thumb where
coolest air aloft resides offering an isolated to widely scattered
shower chance through the evening. lack of instability precludes
thunderstorm chances however a rumble or two of thunder is possible
given freezing levels around 7kft.

shortwave ridging overnight is shunted east by the arrival of a
compact wave arriving out of the upper midwest late tonight-early
saturday morning. accompanying nocturnal convection is expected to
at least partially decay as it arrives over se mi owing to both
unfavorable diurnal timing as well as the lingering drier resident
airmass (pw near 0.6"/td near 50f). this am activity does augment
the column moisture profile as top-down saturation occurs by late
morning supporting afternoon convective potential as a peak of
~500j/kg of mlcape develops. greatest chances for convective showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm continue to look favored over the saginaw
valley/thumb where the faint surface `warm front` stalls providing a
weak convergence axis in addition to closer proximity to the parent
pv anomaly.

another brief period of low amplitude mid-level ridging follows
saturday night into sunday morning before a plains shortwave ejects
into the ohio valley late sunday. mid-range model trends have held
with a more southerly track in the wave resulting in the attendant
warm front holding near or just south of the state line. given
northerly flow over lower mi from northern ontario high pressure,
expect a sharper cutoff to the precip shield than the current broad
brushed likely pops from the nbm. areas south of m-59 stand the best
chances to see showers sunday night-monday morning with heaviest
rainfall totals (around 1") confined to near the ohio border.

thermal troughing continues to hold over the great lakes through
midweek maintaining seasonally cool conditions with highs in the
lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s. next chances for showers and
thunderstorms come wednesday with the arrival of a weak upper
midwest shortwave.

marine...

a ridge of high pressure will build in tonight through tomorrow
morning which will diminish wind speeds and gust intensity
overnight. a diffuse area of high pressure will then hold over the
great lakes through the weekend which will support lighter winds.
periodic rain showers will be possible as multiple upper-level
disturbances move over the region. a low pressure system will then
arrive over the ohio valley and southern great lakes sunday night to
monday morning, this will bring the next likely chances for rain and
some embedded thunderstorms and some stronger wind gusts, mainly
across lake erie and lake st. clair.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.