Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 010501
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1201 am est mon dec 1 2025

.synopsis...
a surface trough will move through tonight, with high pressure
quickly sliding through on monday. low pressure tracking across
the southern us will extend a surface trough into the ohio
valley monday night into early tuesday, before low pressure
shifts off the mid atlantic coast. high pressure slides through
on wednesday, with a cold front pushing through on thursday.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
-ongoing 35 to 45 mph wind gusts subside quickly this evening.
-a trough pushing off of lake erie into northeast oh and northwest pa
this evening brings a burst of lake-enhanced snow, followed by brief
lake effect banding mainly into northwest pa through early monday.

the good news is the weather is mainly dry this afternoon, the bad
news is that it`s quite windy and temperatures are gradually falling
in strong cold air advection behind this morning`s cold front. winds
aloft behind our departing low pressure are very slowly easing this
afternoon, and will diminish more substantially this evening and
tonight. expect gusty winds across most of the area to start
diminishing noticeably as the sun sets. locations along the eastern
lakeshore will stay a bit gustier into this evening, though even there
winds should noticeably weaken late this evening into the overnight.
there have been some sporadic gusts into the 45-50 mph range today as
winds over performed slightly in the strong cold air advection,
though those should be over with as winds aloft are now weakening.

shifting attention to returning snow potential this evening into
tonight, a low-level trough axis is pushing southeast across michigan
and will swing through the area this evening. for most, this will just
bring some flurries or brief/light snow showers, with some minor
enhancement from lake michigan into northwest and central ohio. any
accumulations outside of the snowbelt this evening will be very light,
under 0.3", though could contribute to some slick spots if/where
measurable precip occurs as temperatures continue to plummet. have a
low pop (generally 20-30%) outside of the snowbelt in response.

this trough passage will be a little bit more impactful downwind of
lake erie, particularly across the snowbelt of northeast oh and
northwest pa. a band of lake enhanced precipitation is expected to
develop along the trough axis as it crosses the lake this evening,
pushing onshore in northwest pa starting around 6-7 pm and in the
cleveland area towards 8-9 pm. this band of enhanced precip may
briefly be moderate to heavy, owing to lake-induced el heights
climbing to 8-10k feet and strong convergence along the trough axis.
it`s worth noting that surface temperatures near the lake will be near
freezing early this evening, with the bulk of the lift and instability
still lying below the dendritic growth zone, keeping snow to liquid
ratios modest with the band along the trough. still, this burst of
snow taking place after sunset with temperatures falling into the 20s
could lead to untreated paved surfaces turning slick/icy. the
synoptic lift/moisture and lake-induced instability will be greater
farther east this evening, so the burst of snow will be lighter
towards cleveland and more impactful farther east. behind the band of
snow ridging begins building in quickly, leading to inversion heights
starting to decrease as synoptic moisture also begins stripping away.
that said, some lake effect will briefly develop in northwest flow
behind the trough this evening as 850mb temperatures plunge to -12c by
early monday. this lake effect will last longest and be most
organized and intense downwind of lake huron into parts of northwest
pa, though even here it should quickly wind down into monday. the
snowfall forecast has <1" in the cleveland area, 0.5-2" of across the
northeast oh snowbelt, highest in the higher terrain of geauga and
ashtabula, and 2-4" across the higher terrain of inland erie/northern
crawford pa. amounts will be lighter near the lake in pa (likely an
inch or two), with locally 4 or 5" possible in the higher terrain of
erie county where the lake huron connection develops overnight. while
forecast snow has been lowered slightly tonight in the snowbelt,
overall impacts remain similar and a marginal winter wx advisory
remains in effect from 6 pm to 7 am for inland erie county pa.

monday will feature some morning sunshine that gives way to increasing
clouds through the afternoon. once any lake effect ends early, a dry
day is expected. after lows ranging from the upper 10s to mid 20s
tonight, highs in the low to mid 30s are expected monday.

&&

.short term /monday night through tuesday night/...
-widespread light to moderate synoptic snow is expected monday night
into early tuesday, with increasing confidence in impacts to the
tuesday morning commute.

a trough is expected to swing out of the central u.s. across the mid-
mississippi valley and into the southern great lakes monday night
into tuesday morning. as this happens, the trough will gradually
amplify and take on a negative tilt while attempting to phase/
interact with energy in the sub-tropical jet over the south. weak low
pressure is expected to develop over the southeast us monday night
into early tuesday while extending an inverted trough north into the
upper ohio valley. low pressure deepens and moves northeast up the
east coast on tuesday as the ohio valley inverted trough weakens,
with high pressure quickly building in by tuesday night. snow is
expected monday night into early tuesday across the local area as a
favorable zone of large-scale ascent ahead of the amplifying shortwave
interacts with deeper moisture attempting to get pulled north.

yesterday, discussed that a robust solution like the nam had more
phasing and quicker trough amplification than nearly all other
guidance and was an outlier, while a model like the ecmwf with
consistently more bearish snowfall output was on the more progressive/
less amplified side of guidance...leading to a decent spread in
potential snow amounts and forecast uncertainty. since then, the nam
has trended slightly more progressive while most other guidance, in
particular the ecmwf and many of its ensemble members, has trended a
little bit more amplified with more phasing/interaction with the
subtropical jet. a convergence of solutions. while the nam is still
on the most robust side of guidance with its snowfall output over the
90th percentile of the current nbm ensemble, the overall trend has
been for a bit more snow as other guidance trends slightly more
amplified and moist. the official forecast reflects this, with snow
amounts of 1-3" in the toledo area increasing to 3-5" elsewhere, with
a small boost of lake enhancement behind the system in the cleveland
area and snowbelt on tuesday. per developmental nbmv5.0 guidance, the
odds of over 2" of snow range from 30-50% across northwest oh to 80%+
across our southeast, including millersburg, akron/canton and the
youngstown/warren area. odds of over 6", which seems like a realistic
high end amount locally given the quick-hitting nature of the system,
range from less than 5% in northwest oh to 10-20% in a similar
corridor from mt vernon - akron - erie points east/southeast.

with this system primarily occurring the nighttime and early morning
hours and temperatures expected to be below freezing, snow
accumulations on roadways and impacts to the tuesday morning commute
are becoming increasingly likely. the degree of impact will be
determined by total accumulations and what type of snow rates are
realized...there are hints at mid-level frontogenesis developing
across parts of the area late monday night or pre-dawn tuesday as
mid-level thermal gradients tighten ahead of the incoming upper
trough, which could lead to embedded pockets of moderate to heavy
snow. the impression is that winter weather advisories are becoming an
increasingly likely proposition for parts of the area, particularly
farther south and east where the probabilities for a few inches of
snow are relatively higher. snow will largely end early in the day
tuesday, though winds swinging north-northwest off of lake erie as
some synoptic moisture lingers may lead to modest lake enhancement
from the cleveland metro points east-southeast on tuesday, adding
perhaps another inch or two of snow where the enhancement favors.

lows monday night will largely be in the mid to upper 20s, with highs
on tuesday only warming slightly into the low to perhaps mid 30s. lows
tuesday night will range from the upper 10s to mid 20s.

&&

.long term /wednesday through sunday/...
-strong cold front brings potential for a few snow showers wednesday
night into thursday, with lingering lake effect on thursday.
-coldest night of the young season thursday night into friday morning.
-precip chances (mainly snow) return to the forecast for the weekend,
but confidence in any details or potential impacts is low.

cold, active early winter weather continues through the long term as a
lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex settles into the vicinity of
hudson bay. a cold front will cross wednesday night or early thursday.
this will be a moisture-starved system and the bulk of the forcing
aloft will pass to our north/northeast. still, a few snow showers may
accompany the front with a brief window lake effect snow into thursday
as 850mb temperatures briefly bottom out at -13 to -16c. overall,
guidance has trended towards a bit more of a glancing blow with this
cold airmass, leading to lower confidence in impactful lake effect.

high pressure brings brief quiet weather for thursday night and early
friday. all models have various shortwaves riding out of the plains
and across the ohio valley/southern great lakes between later friday
and sunday, though details such as the timing/track/intensity of each
are very uncertain at this time range in what looks to be a fast-
moving weather pattern. generally colder weather will continue, with
potential for measurable snow or mixed precip at some point but low
confidence in the when, where, or how much at this point.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
a mixed bag of conditions with vfr and patchy mvfr ceilings
across western terminals to mvfr with patchy ifr visibilities
and ceilings in a heavy lake effect snow band pushing south
across eastern terminals. behind the band expect for improving
conditions areawide back to vfr by monday morning. terminals
will see a window of vfr conditions through much of the day
today before the next system begins to enter from the west
tonight. have begun introducing mvfr cig/vis for snow showers
with this system from west to east after 03z/tue.

generally westerly to northwesterly surface winds 8-12 knots
with gusts 20-25 knots will diminish through the overnight
hours. winds turn light and variable tonight as the
aforementioned ridge builds overhead.

outlook...non-vfr with periods of snow are expected tonight
through this friday.

&&

.marine...
gale warning in effect for u.s. waters:
- until 7 pm est this evening from reno beach to willowick
- until 1 am monday from willowick to buffalo

low water advisory in effect for u.s. waters for ongoing seiche:
- until 10 pm this evening from maumee bay to vermilion

small craft advisory in effect for nearshore u.s. waters:
- until 1 am monday from maumee bay to reno beach

a potent low wobbles ne`ward from near georgian bay late this
afternoon to near the mouth of the st. lawrence river by daybreak
monday and weakens slowly. behind the low, a trailing trough axis
sweeps se`ward across lake erie this evening. in response, sw`erly
winds around 25 to 40 knots persist this afternoon. sw`erly winds
then ease to around 20 to 35 knots this evening before shifting to
nw`erly and easing further to 10 to 30 knots by midnight tonight in
response to the trough axis passage. during the wee hours of monday
morning, nw`erly winds ease further to 5 to 15 knots by daybreak as
a ridge builds from the north-central u.s. waves as large as 10 to
16 feet late this afternoon are forecast to subside to 4 feet or
less by daybreak monday.

on monday, the ridge will move e`ward across lake erie. accordingly,
winds trend 5 to 10 knots and variable in direction. any lingering 4
footers will subside to 2 feet or less by late morning. during
monday night through tuesday, a low should deepen as it wobbles
ne`ward from the northwestern gulf to atlantic waters east of the
delmarva peninsula and extends a trough over lake erie. winds around
5 to 15 knots should vary between mainly s`erly and nw`erly over
lake erie. waves of 3 feet or less are expected.

on tuesday night through wednesday, another ridge should build from
the lower oh valley and vicinity as a cold front approaches lake
erie from the northwest. the interaction between the building ridge
and frontal trough should allow mainly nw`erly winds to back to
sw`erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots tuesday night as waves
build to as large as 3 to 5 feet (largest waves expected in open
waters of the central and eastern basins). on wednesday, the same
interaction should allow sw`erly winds to freshen further to around
20 to 30 knots. waves as large as 5 to 10 feet are expected and a
small craft advisory will likely be needed.

the cold front should sweep se`ward across lake erie wednesday
night. sw`erly winds around 20 to 30 knots and waves as large as 5
to 10 feet are expected ahead of the front. behind the front, w`erly
to nw`erly winds should ease to around 15 to 25 knots overnight
wednesday night through thursday as a ridge builds from the upper
midwest. this slight easing of winds should contribute to waves
subsiding to 7 feet or less by sunset thursday evening.

the aforementioned ridge should crest e`ward over lake erie thursday
night and begin to exit slowly toward the northeast u.s. and
vicinity on friday. accordingly, w`erly to nw`erly winds should back
gradually to s`erly to sw`erly. wind speeds should be mainly 10 to
20 knots, but may flirt with 25 knots at times as the ridge
interacts with yet another cold front and associated trough axis
forecast to approach lake erie from the northwest. waves should
subside to 4 feet or less by daybreak friday. on friday, waves as
large as 3 to 6 feet are expected. largest waves are expected in the
open waters of the central and eastern basins based on forecast
fetch.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 am est monday for paz002.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lez142>145.
small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez146>148.
gale warning until 1 am est monday for lez149-169.

&&

$$

synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...13
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 010626
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 am est mon dec 1 2025

.key messages...

- lake effect snow will continue to slowly taper off through the
evening.

- a round of accumulating snow (1-4") may create hazardous
travel conditions monday night into early tuesday morning.

- remaining cold through this week.

&&

.update...
issued at 620 pm est sun nov 30 2025

final burst of lake effect snow within an embedded mesovort is
now shifting south and rapidly weakening. radar mosaic shows
another modest cellular band upstream but this should rapidly
weaken in the next 1-3 hours as high pressure/subsidence build
into the area. while sct snow showers may linger for a few hours
after 00z, the threat of heavy snow is ending and will
therefore allow the warning to expire as planned.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 109 pm est sun nov 30 2025

low level lake aggregate trough will remain active for far northern
in and southwest mi into early this evening. lake parameters are
good with 700mb/lake temp differentials into the mid 20s and a
decently moist dgz on the backside of last night`s low pressure
system. bouts of moderate to heavy lake effect snow with gusty winds
are expected given the convergence and favorable thermodynamic
profile, though any banding should be transient with embedded
mesovorts possible. have opted to retain the winter storm warning
through 00z to account for the reductions in visbys and heavier
1"/hr snow rates within any banded elements. counties bordering the
warning to the south and east could also see some brief impacts with
snow showers this afternoon/evening with accumulations generally
less than an inch. deeper qg subsidence and backing/diminishing low
level winds arrive tonight which should bring a quick end to
any measurable lake effect snow.

pattern remains active as a positively tilted upper level trough
tracks east through the region late monday into monday night with
another round of snow. a lighter snow this time as better moisture
return is delayed off to the southeast. however, favorable upper
level divergence looks to support a relatively strong mid level fgen
signal over the area, along with a relatively deep and saturated
dgz. a model consensus favors a couple of inches of snow for most
monday night, though mesobanding could support localized higher
amounts up to 4 inches with reduced stability noted above the fgen
circulation in model xsections.

broad troughing looks to linger mid week through next weekend with
below normal temps and periodic precip (mainly snow) chances as
numerous upper level waves take aim on the region. a moisture
starved northern stream shortwave does drop a cold front through
later wednesday into thursday morning with its main impact being a
renewed shot of cold air. additional waves ejecting from the
intermountain west may have more moisture to work with for
precipitation sometime in the late friday-next weekend period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 108 am est mon dec 1 2025

fog was forming over much of northeast indiana. the visibility
at smd had just dropped to a quarter of a mile at 0615z. some
patches of clouds were moving over the area, but expect partly
cloudy skies for the most part the rest of the night. went with
a tempo 1sm br at fwa for now. temperatures were really radiating
out and may cause fog to form very rapidly. otherwise, the fog
will lift by late morning before snow spreads over northern
indiana including both terminals.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am est this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

update...agd
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...agd/skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
114 am est mon dec 1 2025

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures continue through the week. highs in the
20s and overnight lows in the teens will be prevalent from monday
onward.

- light accumulating snow tonight, with 1 to 2 inches expected for
metro detroit and areas south.

- dusting of snowfall or light snow accumulation will be possible
late wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.aviation...

nw low-level flow (2-6 kft agl) backs w overnight which supports
decreased lake stratocumulus. in the absence of cloud aloft, a
period of skc will occupy portions of the airspace into monday
morning as lower column ridging moves in. vfr conditions extend
through most of monday while high cloud streams in and descends
throughout the daylight hours. this saturation process occurs in
response to an approaching upper level wave tracking south of the
state. light winds organize out of the se ahead of inbound
precipitation. expect another round of snowfall monday night into
tuesday with lower visibilities and longer duration for the southern
terminals. very light winds could back easterly as snowfall gets
underway. ifr ceilings and visibilities are likely to the south with
mvfr over ptk, and possibly fnt. mvfr ceilings/visibilities are most
uncertain for mbs, at least through 06z.

for dtw...clearer skies overnight and a decrease in winds,
eventually backing southerly. weak low pressure system approaches
monday evening bringing snowfall and ceiling/visibility impacts
amidst light ese winds.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft monday evening and overnight.

* high for precipitation type as snow monday evening and overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 pm est sun nov 30 2025

discussion...

radar returns have been diminishing with the snow/trough rotating
through saginaw bay and now advancing through the northern thumb
region with a little light snow (dusting to 1 inch). subsidence,
drying, and clearing follows for tonight under northwest winds, but
some transient clouds downwind off lake michigan and even flurries
can`t be rule out with this cold airmass (negative low to mid teens
at 850 mb). otherwise, with the fresh snow cover and winds going
calm, mins in the teens look to be an easy call (assuming skies go
mostly clear), with single numbers likely across the normally
colder/better radiating locations. see mav guidance and regional gem
2 m temps.

the deep and large upper level low over hudson bay will continue to
support a progressive pattern this week, directing a series of waves
coming out of the gulf of alaska and diving southeast into the
rockies. the current upper level energy over the rockies/500 mb
trough will be arriving late monday. the issue is there is two
distinct upper level waves embedded in the large scale trough, with
the southern wave and surface low tracking through
tennessee/kentucky taking with it the bulk of the moisture. specific
humidity in the 850-700 mb layer struggles to get to 1.75 g/kg along
the southern michigan border. none-the-less, the mid level jet does
look to clip southern lower michigan, providing sufficient elevated
forcing with saturation with respect to ice. do think we can grind
out a half an inch to 2 inches in the monday evening/night time
frame, supported by our local probabilistic guidance, with the i-94
corridor and points south seeing the highest totals.

shortwave ridging on tuesday with the next cold front on track to
move through late wednesday. little in the way of height falls and
moisture argues for just a chance of snow showers/dusting of snow.
good cold advection behind the front, with 850 mb temps forecasted
to drop into the negative mid teens on thursday, per 12z euro. this
will set the stage for highs only in the 20s and mins friday morning
in the single numbers. strengthening southwest flow to end the work
week will allow for moderation, but temps still below normal into
the weekend. will have to watch a gulf coast system passing to our
south on friday as it heads into the mid atlantic states friday
night. phasing with the northern stream appears to be too late at
this point.

marine...

secondary cold front is pushing south of lake huron around time of
discussion before eventually clearing the southern great lakes this
evening. strong northwest flow follows in the immediate wake of the
front supporting a 4-6hr period of 35-40kts across the central and
southern portions of lake huron. outside of the gale warned zones,
some brief gales are likely over the saginaw bay (with sag bay light
already reporting some) as well as over western lake erie in
preceding sw/wsw flow. for erie however, window direction favors the
bulk of gales occuring over the open waters. small craft advisories
are in effect for through late evening for the remaining
nearshore waters due to potential gusts to 30ks.

sprawling ridge of high pressure aggressively builds in tonight
supporting a fairly rapid diminishing trend in winds across the
region. high center is set to swing across the ohio valley monday
maintaining light flow for the southern half of the central lakes.
as for the northern, broad low pressure over the hudson bay
compresses the gradient across the northern great lakes preventing a
true relaxation of the wind field resulting in persistent southwest
gusts up near 20kts monday/monday night. a system trailing the high
crosses the ohio valley late monday-tuesday offering light snow
chances but otherwise brings minimal local marine impacts. next
significant system arrives wednesday as a strong arctic cold front
drops out of northern ontario resulting in both strong preceding
southwest winds and trailing northwesterly winds as the coldest air
of the season thus far moves over the great lakes. currently,
greatest chances (~50%) at seeing gusts to gales occur during the
preceding southwest aided by longer fetch over the central portions
huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...sf
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.