Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
832
fxus61 kcle 291728
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
128 pm edt wed jul 29 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes. added patchy fog to the forecast for
parts of the area thursday night into early friday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) tranquil and pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

2) chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure slides across the ohio valley through friday as
upper troughing gradually departs to the northeast. dry and
slightly cooler than average conditions will continue through
the end of the week. patchy fog is possible in typical locations
thursday night into early friday with radiational cooling.

key message 2...
an upper level trough and associated weak surface low will dive
through the western great lakes and northern ohio valley this
weekend, bringing a return to increased humidity and unsettled
weather to the region. potential for showers and thunder ramps
up slowly from west to east friday night and saturday, with dry
east winds fighting the potential for rain from eastern oh into
pa through a good portion of saturday. there is disagreement
among the models and ensemble members regarding the finer
details that will determine the eventual timing, coverage, and
amount of rain across the area, though the general consensus is
that rain chances will maximize late saturday into early sunday.
a gradual drying trend is then favored from northwest to
southeast sunday into sunday night. we are not looking at a
multi-day washout this weekend, more like a 1-2 day period with
occasional shower and storm chances but also intermittent drier
periods. precipitable water values climb to 1.75-2.00" late
saturday into sunday, so efficient rain-rates and locally heavy
rainfall may become concerns. however, the general setup appears
unfavorable for severe thunderstorms with only modest amounts
of instability and wind shear expected.

high pressure pressing in from the north should lead to a
general drying trend for monday and tuesday. there is some
disagreement regarding if enough warmth/humidity will persist
for lower chances of pop-up showers/storms monday or tuesday
afternoon...mainly farther south across the area. a somewhat
more active pattern may return for the second half of next week.
temperatures will generally be near to a bit warmer than normal
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
widespread vfr conditions are expected to continue for this taf
update. scattered to broken ceilings around 3500 to 5000 feet
will be around this afternoon giving way to mostly clear skies
tonight into thursday morning. winds will be gusty from the
north this afternoon 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots.
winds will relax this evening and overnight from the north
around 5 to 7 knots.

outlook...non-vfr conditions in scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected saturday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.marine...
winds will remain elevated from the north 15-20 knots through
tonight. wave heights in the central and eastern basins of 4-7
feet will continue into this evening. small craft advisory and
beach hazard statement remain in effect through late tonight.
conditions will be hazardous for small craft in addition to the
high risk of rip currents. swimming is discouraged! high
pressure will build in thursday and friday. on thursday, winds
will be from the northwest 5 to 15 knots on thursday and waves 1
to 3 feet. by friday, winds will be from the southwest 5 to 10
knots and waves 1 to 2 feet. winds turn easterly by saturday and
sunday as low pressure passes south of lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through late tonight for ohz009>012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt thursday for lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 291900
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
300 pm edt wed jul 29 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable weather continues with low humidity into
friday.

- chances for rain and storms increase to 40-70% late friday into
saturday. severe weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt wed jul 29 2026

an upper speed max is progressing across the lower ohio valley
and eventually the mid atlantic region into this evening. a
mid/upper level ridge building into the region behind this
feature will allow low level cold air advection to continue
across the area tonight. the combination of mostly clear skies
and residual near sfc moisture could allow for another morning
of patchy shallow fog early thursday am, but currently not
expecting this to be a major concern. good radiational cooling
conditions will result in below normal low temps tonight from
mid 50s to lower 60s.

the mid/upper level wave pattern will become somewhat stagnant
tomorrow and thursday with little movement in mid/upper level ridge
axis across the region and persistence of a low level anticyclone.
this will result in light northwest winds for thursday, eventually
become light southwest on friday as the ridge axis begins to shift
off to the east.

water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts next notable upper
level short wave shifting across central ca/nv this afternoon.
this feature will slowly ride the longwave ridge across western
conus. a plains low level jet ahead of this system will result
in strong low moisture convergence across the northern plains
late thursday. guidance continues to indicate enhancement of
this ridge topping short wave from convection, with a large part
of negative low level height tendencies and eastward
progression of associated low level cyclonic flow tied to this
induced low/mid level diabatic pv anomaly. some southeast flow
on eastern periphery of this low level circulation may slow
transport of best low level moisture axis into the area on
friday, with best chances of showers/isolated storms on friday
afternoon south of us route 30 across northwest into portions of
north central indiana.

better elevated moisture advection with this feature still looks to
work into the area friday night into saturday morning. low level
reflection of this system still looks likely to track south of the
local area which may set up a period of deformation forcing into
saturday afternoon/early evening. slow moving nature of this forcing
could allow for some localized decent rainfall amounts, but trend in
medium range guidance has been to slightly more progression which
should prevent significant hydro issues. severe weather is
currently not expected as better axis of weak/moderate
instability appears to be favored well south of the local area.

passage of friday/saturday system will leave a broad low level
thermal trough in its wake and slightly below normal temperatures
for the remainder of the weekend into monday. mid/upper level flow
will gradually deamplify next week which will eventually allow
eastward migration of warmer central conus low level temps. this
deamplified pattern will also result in some increased chances of
showers/storms toward the end of the period, although confidence in
timing of increased chances is low at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 121 pm edt wed jul 29 2026

dry air continues to remain around the area with high pressure
overhead. this allows for light (10 kts sustained or below)
northerly winds and vfr conditions through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 291855
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
255 pm edt wed jul 29 2026

.key messages...

- warmer tomorrow and friday with highs rising into the to mid-upper
80s.

- scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected
friday evening through saturday.

- dry weather returns early next week with warming temperatures
approaching 90 degrees by mid week.

&&

.discussion...

a dry airmass remains in place this afternoon, as indicated by
surface dew pts mainly in the upper 40s to to mid-50s. scattered-
broken flat cu field over the southern half of the cwa should
quickly fade early this evening. sprawling high pressure over the
western great lakes will slowly slide through the central great
lakes tonight and tomorrow as an upper-level ridge axis moves
overhead thursday night. modest return flow late in the day will
allow temperatures and dew points to be 2-5 degrees higher compared
than today.

there is a bit more clarity for friday and the weekend, as model
trends and ensemble members have converged toward deeper and faster
amplification. thus, a deepening 500 mb trough/low developing over
iowa on friday dives southeast friday night. even so, there is a
separate 850-700 mb theta-e ridge in place over lower michigan on
friday with enough mid/upper level troughing/height falls arriving
friday evening/night to support showers. nbm pops have subsequently
increased into the likely category for friday night and saturday.
total qpf remains uncertain, as the amount of weak instability still
needs to be sorted out. euro ensembles suggest the probability of
0.5 inch or more in a 24 hour period is still under 50 percent. the
second half of the weekend looks drier now, based on the northern
stream trough and next round of height falls mainly tracking through
lake huron, with main push of cold advection directed into the
eastern great lakes. none-the-less, with a weak frontal
boundary/inverted surface trough lingering through the day over
southeast michigan, slight chance pops for showers/thunderstorms
seems warranted, though instability looks to be low with weak mid
level lapse rates indicated.

a pronounced upper-level ridge returns for early next week,
supporting dry weather and warming temperatures that could
potentially reach 90 degrees by mid week, depending on timing of a
cold front as the upper-level flow over the northern conus trends
pseudo-zonal.

&&

.marine...

north flow weakens through into this evening as high pressure drops
south across the area. will allow small craft headlines to expire
later this evening, as winds and waves will gradually relax as we
head towards dusk. winds tomorrow become easterly during the day
tomorrow and then southerly by tomorrow night. overall, winds are
expected to remain below 15 knots tomorrow and through the end of
the week. there remains a chance for scattered showers and storms
late friday and saturday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1228 pm edt wed jul 29 2026

aviation...

high pressure continues to move into southern lower mi with dry air
at nearly all levels. there is just enough boundary layer moisture
to support few/sct high base cumulus clouds this afternoon and
expect similar conditions on thursday. north winds of 10-15 kts with
gusts around 20 kts will continue this afternoon. these winds will
decrease this evening and overnight. light winds expected on
thursday as the high pressure settles over the area.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and
thursday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz049-055-
063.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......ja
aviation.....rbp


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.