Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
248
fxus61 kcle 201051
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
651 am edt thu aug 20 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
the end time of shower chances has trended a little bit later
for today. confidence in showers/storms is increasing for the
weekend, especially on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning.
locally heavy rainfall is possible along the southern fringe of
the area this morning.

2) an unsettled weather pattern is expected this weekend with periods
of showers and thunderstorms likely, especially on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will continue to slowly push south across the
region early this morning, resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily across the southern part of the local
area. a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is likely through
about 12z/8 am and possibly through as late as 15z/11 am as the
main precip shield shifts east of the local area. soils are
saturated in the area of concern, which would produce a
favorable environment for localized flooding, although as of now
it looks like the heaviest rainfall will largely remain just to
the south of the area. shower and thunderstorm chances will
likely creep north later this morning and into this afternoon,
although activity will be relatively isolated as the frontal
boundary will be in the far southern portion of the cwa. shower
and thunderstorm chances will diminish as the front finally
pushes south this evening and high pressure builds into the
region. dry weather is expected on friday.

key message 2...
after a brief break in showers/thunderstorms friday, unsettled
weather will return to the area over the weekend as a series of
upper troughs/cold fronts cross the region and low pressure
moves east across the upper great lakes/ontario. the most
widespread showers and storms are expected on saturday
afternoon before precip becomes more lake-enhanced saturday
evening through sunday. saturday afternoon will be the primary
timeframe to monitor for organized storms and heavy rainfall,
although there are multiple areas of uncertainty including the
timing of the best forcing/resulting rain chances and the amount
of instability across the area as the best forcing comes into
the cwa. at the moment, it looks like the better forcing/shear
will be out of phase with the higher instability. will need to
keep an eye on how guidance trends over the next couple of days.
by sunday, any showers/storms will be confined to the typical
snowbelt areas of ne oh/nw pa with conditions gradually drying
out sunday night into monday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
the main message for aviation weather for this set of tafs will
be mainly vfr conditions are expected. there are some scattered
rain showers down by mfd, cak, and yng this morning but should
have very little to no impact. there could be some brief mvfr
5sm -shra at cak and yng between 12z and 14z. the rest of the
time period should be vfr ceilings and conditions. winds will
become northeasterly to easterly this morning through the end
of the taf period 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on
saturday and may bring some non-vfr conditions. showers and
storms with non-vfr may continue into saturday night and
sunday, mainly in northeast ohio and northwest pa.

&&

.marine...
there is a land breeze that has developed over the central basin
of lake erie this morning. isolated waterspouts may be possible
with the land breeze through this morning. winds will become
east-northeast later this morning 5 to 15 knots with waves of 1
to 3 feet today into tonight. high pressure will continue to
build in over the lake the next couple of days. winds will be
controlled by local land breeze and lake breeze interactions on
friday starting out from the south/southeast early friday
becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots with waves of 1 to 2 feet. a
low pressure system will track across the great lakes region on
saturday. showers and thunderstorms will be likely on saturday
into evening. southwest winds 10-15 knots on saturday will shift
from the northwest 10 to 20 knots by sunday behind a passing
cold front. wave heights may build to 2-4 feet saturday night
into sunday. we may need some headlines for the nearshore waters
and beach hazards statements for the higher waves and possible
rips saturday night into sunday. high pressure will build in by
monday with lighter winds and waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
265
fxus63 kiwx 201146
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
746 am edt thu aug 20 2026

.key messages...

- mostly dry today with only a slight chance (20 percent) for
isolated showers and storms in the late afternoon and early
evening. severe weather is not expected. highs around 80
degrees.

- the next chance for showers and storms will be late friday
afternoon into sunday morning. the best chances (50-75
percent) will be saturday afternoon east of interstate 69.
elsewhere, expect closer to 30-50 percent chance. severe
weather is not expected.

- hazardous swimming conditions are possible for lake mi
beaches along berrien co, mi and la porte county, in this
weekend. dangerous waves and currents are possible. monitor
the beach forecast for updates.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 518 am edt thu aug 20 2026

morning rain showers south of us 30 continue to develop close to the
exiting cold front/low pressure system, with light northeast winds
east of i 69 in mi/toledo/findlay and a more northerly direction
west of there. near fort wayne/warsaw/defiance winds are calm. the
heaviest rain showers/storms that drove the flood watch remained
mostly south of our area overnight, so even if we get a few
heavier/lingering showers this morning i don`t anticipate much in
the way of flooding. cancelled the flood watch early (prev.
expiration at 12z). as of right now, showers extend along a line
from wabash county, in through huntington/wells/adams, and then
into lima, oh (and its diminishing with time). the heavier axis
remains just south of van wert/lima, oh (into iln/cle area),
where the showers have been training since about 3 am edt.

i suspect today will end up mostly dry overall, with chances
for rain focused this morning and possibly again later this
afternoon/evening. the overall trend in the mid-upper levels is
drying through the day, especially behind the initial wave this
morning when subsidence takes over. it appears we still retain
our low level moisture through the evening. flow aloft becomes
fairly zonal, and some of the models kick a weak shortwave
through around 00z. additionally, with the lighter flow at the
surface and daytime heating developing, lake breezes may develop
during the afternoon and move inland. winds out of the east-
northeast over lake erie this afternoon strengthen as the low
exits the area and moves into ny/pa. flow off lake mi does
strengthen and an inverted trough-like feature forms near i 69
east--which could provide adequate moisture convergence for
shower development around 21-03z. depending on how the cloud
cover evolves this morning into the afternoon, we could end up
seeing an isolated storm or two. ml cape by this afternoon could
range from 500-900 j/kg (sfc based 1500 j/kg) if we can get
enough heating. for now, maintained a 20 percent chance for
showers and storms starting around 21z and continuing through
3z, mainly east of in 15. with weak flow overall, there is
little to no shear to work with so do not anticipate any severe
weather. there is a lot of model spread this afternoon/evening
regarding this scenario--it could be that we remain completely
dry through friday afternoon. the models that key in on the
convergence and develop showers/storms keep them fairly isolated
(not widespread).

mostly dry conditions persist through much of friday, then in the
late afternoon/evening hours a deepening 500mb trough builds in
aloft, and a broad surface low over northern ontario drifts towards
james bay. this will bring a cold front through into saturday. the
sfc low deepens and drops south as the trough base builds in from
the west, consolidating over southern ontario/lower great lakes by
06z sunday. expect we`ll have chances (20-50 percent) for rain
showers and a few storms with the cold front friday night into early
saturday for areas generally west of i 69, then as the front moves
east and upper level forcing strengthens during daytime heating
saturday afternoon, chances increase to more like 50-75 percent
(especially in nw oh). the system then moves eastward from there,
leaving our area on the back side of the upper level trough with
decent northwest flow through sunday. some of the guidance generates
showers from lake mi inland as a shortwave pinwheels around the low
saturday night into sunday, but guidance is conflicted on that. left
sunday dry for now. with decent north-northwest flow (15-25 mph
winds) on lake mi saturday into sunday, waves are likely to build up
to 3-5 feet. we`ll at least need a moderate swim risk during these
two days for beaches along both the berrien co, mi/la porte co, in
shoreline. i think we`ll probably see high swim risk conditions
develop both days, especially during the afternoon/evening. a beach
hazards statement will likely be needed depending on how the wind
forecast evolves in the next couple days.

monday into tuesday night our cwa rests on the border between the
exiting upper level low (moved off to quebec/ne conus) and a broad
high pressure ridge extending from the desert southwest. we`ll be on
the northeastern periphery, which should keep us mostly dry. there
are a few weak shortwaves that move through on the edge of this
ridge, but confidence wasn`t high enough to include any precip
chances at this time (most of the guidance remains dry).

tuesday night into thursday, another trough/upper low begins to
break down the ridge, and a surface cold front moves through.
guidance on the upper level pattern is conflicted at this point, so
key surface features like the front may be misplaced-but i
maintained the broadbrush 20-30 percent chances for showers/storms
on these days.

temperatures through next thursday will largely be in the mid-upper
70s, low 80s. the exception would be sun/mon when we do see several
locations in the low-mid 70s. lows will be in the mid-upper 50s-
low 60s, except for sunday night where we see values in the low
50s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 741 am edt thu aug 20 2026

predominantly vfr at ksbn through the period. at kfwa,
predominantly mvfr/ifr conditions through the first portion of
the day, becoming vfr later this afternoon. right now we have
some br (3-4sm) at the terminal and surrounding sites, with
ceilings bouncing between 1500-2500 feet. expect this to
continue on and off through the morning. still potential for
isolated showers and maybe a t-storm late this afternoon/evening
at kfwa, but confidence is low. left as a prob30 group for now.
otherwise, br development late tonight, possible at ksbn but
most likely at kfwa. for now went mvfr with visibilities, though
guidance suggests we could see values around 1-2sm at times.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
939
fxus63 kdtx 201038
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
638 am edt thu aug 20 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms spread across southeast
michigan friday night into saturday, bringing widespread rainfall.
severe weather is not expected.

- cooler and breezy conditions arrive sunday with lingering shower
chances and gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.aviation...

lingering stalled frontal boundary over northern ohio leads to a
mixture of mid/high cloud over se mi today. any associated showers
remain near or south of the state line with terminals seeing dry,
vfr conditions as high pressure holds through tonight.

d21/dtw convection... no convection is forecast for the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 255 am edt thu aug 20 2026

discussion...

an amplified upper level pattern is setting up over the conus as we
head into the weekend, with a ridge over the rockies and trough east
of the mississippi river valley.

a couple of showers survived into southwest lenawee county last
evening. a continued southward drift of the moisture gradient will
occur today, but an isolated shower south of i-94 corridor today
still can not be ruled out, as low level easterly flow off the warm
waters of lake erie may provide just the moisture/convergence boost
needed. still, li`s should hold aoa zero, thus thunderstorms are not
expected.

the next shortwave and associated surface low moves into the western
great lakes tonight, with a second shortwave and round of height
falls quickly catching up and merging over the central great lakes
friday night into saturday. good low level convergence along the
cold front will support blossoming showers and scattered
thunderstorms on saturday. sbcape under 1500 j/kg and weak mid level
lapse rates should keep activity sub-severe, as 0-6 km bulk shear is
also on the lower side (under 30 knots). euro ensembles indicate a
90+ percent for a tenth of an inch or greater of qpf, with a 20 to
40 percent chance of a half an inch or greater over the north half
of the cwa.

cool cyclonic flow for the second half of the weekend will keep a
chance of showers going, especially if the 00z canadian verifies
with the timing and position of the next strong spoke of energy
rotating through. it look to be a bit breezy as well, with gusts in
the 25-30 mph expected with cold advection and deeper mixing.

closed 500 mb low just north of georgian bay sunday evening will
maintain cooler weather to start next week. a short lived warming
trend then kicks in tuesday into wednesday, but an even deeper
trough and cold shot is forecasted for thursday and friday, as the
euro indicates 850 mb temps reaching 6-7 c.

marine...

high pressure over northern lake huron will provide light northeast
winds today, turning southeast tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. this front over the western great lakes will be slow to
advance east. south-southeast winds on friday will have the
potential to reach 20 to 25 knots over northern lake huron. showers
and scattered thunderstorms will then move through friday night and
saturday as the cold front finally tracks through the central great
lakes. strong northwest winds will follow for saturday night and
especially sunday, with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected
over lake huron as colder air filters in. gradually decreasing winds
sunday night into monday as a large area of high pressure returns
monday night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sf
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.