Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 061139
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
739 am edt mon apr 6 2026

.what has changed...
accumulating snowfall in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania is likely late tonight into tuesday morning, with a
few inches possible across higher elevations of erie county in
pennsylvania.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures through tuesday, with periodic
precipitation chances today through tuesday morning. transition
to snow expected tonight, with potential for accumulating snow
in the higher elevations of the primary snow belt.

2) dry conditions and warming temperatures midweek, with
precipitation chances returning late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
main weather feature of concern early in the forecast period is
embedded shortwaves/attendant surface low rotating east
southeast through the great lakes in broad mid/upper troughing
over the region. first shortwave will cross the lower great
lakes this morning, ushering in shower activity from west to
east across the area, as currently noted upstream on radar near
southern lake michigan. these showers could contain some frozen
hydrometeors (graupel, etc.) as freezing levels remain near
2.5kft.

a stronger wave and surface reflection will move southeast
through the great lakes this afternoon and evening, which will
shunt a majority of the shower activity and synoptic moisture
off to the east this evening into tonight, as a cold front
pushes south across the area. thermal profiles will support a
transition to snow this evening and tonight, with some lake
enhancement/effect and upslope across the higher terrain of the
snow belt possible, especially late tonight into early tuesday
morning. most areas will see under an inch if any accumulation,
but some of the higher terrain, especially in far eastern erie
county, could see a couple of inches of accumulation, mainly on
grassy and elevated surfaces. snow will quickly end tuesday
morning as ridging builds east across the lake.

key message 2...
a quieter pattern influenced by strong high pressure building
across the region tuesday night through thursday will help usher
in a quick moderation of temperatures back to above normal
wednesday and thursday. a cold front will sink south towards the
region late thursday and friday which brings our next chance for
showers and some storms across the area.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
showers have been moving through early this morning bringing
isolated mvfr, though the majority of terminals have been
staying vfr. for kyng and keri, there will likely be a rain/snow
mix with the showers this morning and could bring down
ceilings/visibilities into mvfr. there will be a break in the
precipitation for a few hours, but non-vfr ceilings are expected
to continue across most of the eastern terminals. precipitation
will return for sites east of ktol and kfdy between 15-18z,
though will be scattered. opted to continue the vcsh wording for
the remaining terminals. keri will see more consistent snow
showers this evening dropping down conditions to mvfr. outside
of keri, vcsh should begin to taper off by 01-03z and dry
weather is expected through the end of the taf period.

winds across the region currently are out of the west to
southwest around 5-10 knots. by mid day, winds will all be out
of the west and increase to 10-15 knots with gusts around 20-25
knots. they will continue to stay elevated and shift out of the
north-northwest after 04-06z. wind gusts will begin to subside
near the end of the taf period from west to east.

outlook...non-vfr likely monday night into tuesday morning in
rain and/or snow showers, particularly across the snowbelt.
non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers thursday night into
friday.

&&

.marine...
there will be brief, quiet conditions across lake erie today
with winds out of the west at 5-15 knots and waves less than 3
feet. rough conditions return this evening as low pressure moves
off to the east of the region and winds shift to be out of the
north and increase to 15-25 knots. waves will build as a
response to 3-6 feet across the central and eastern basins. a
small craft advisory has been issued from 10pm tonight through
10am tuesday for those areas. quieter conditions return on
tuesday afternoon with winds less than 10 knots out of the north
then shifting to the southeast. by thursday, winds will increase
out of the south to 15-25 knots, though with the offshore flow,
the open waters will see the roughest conditions and a small
craft advisory for the near shore remains a low probability.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt
tuesday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...03
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 061109
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
709 am edt mon apr 6 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry conditions persist through early thursday.

- cooler temperatures are expected tonight into tuesday with
lows in the 20s and highs around 40.

- warmer weather returns later this week, along with our next
chance for rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 153 am edt mon apr 6 2026

midlevel jet and attendant vort max on the cyclonically sheared side
currently pushing through our cwa and generating some light rain.
this activity will exit by 12z but an additional vort max will
arrive later today and maintain general cyclonic low/midlevel flow
over michigan. can`t rule out a few sprinkles in our far n/ne zones
during the day (aided by some marginal lake instability) but expect
any rain to be very light and isolated so will hold with silent 10
pop. the passage of this secondary shortwave tonight will mark the
arrival of some much colder air. 850mb temps drop to nearly -12c by
early tue morning (coldest in our ne). latest concensus guidance
came in a degree or two warmer but still well into the 20s for the
entire cwa. the growing season has not officially begun for our area
yet so no headlines planned. highs tue struggle to get out of the
low 40s despite full afternoon sun.

high pressure drifts east tue night/wed and return flow/waa pushes
highs back to around 60f by wed afternoon and around 70f by thu. in
similar fashion to previous events, a closed low then crosses
ontario and sends a weak, increasingly orphaned, front through our
area thu night/fri. the forecast thereafter becomes challenging as
this orphaned front stalls somewhere over the region and eventually
lifts back north as deep troughing redevelops over the western conus
and downstream southwest flow returns to the great lakes. this could
lead to a wet period over the weekend into next week but there is
still a lot of spread in the guidance with some solutions keeping
the main zone of precip just north of our area. water levels will
have a chance to recede during the next several days but will
continue to watch the weekend into next week closely for additional
rainfall chances.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 707 am edt mon apr 6 2026

vfr to mvfr conditions expected at the terminals through the period.
there are a few scattered/broken cloud decks around 3500-7000ft-but
otherwise there is a clearing before the next batch of mvfr ceilings
moves into ksbn this afternoon. models suggest that the mvfr
ceilings stay north of kfwa, as the lower clouds late this
morning/afternoon are influenced by lake mi and another incoming
trough. there are a few scattered clouds around 2500-3500ft near
kfwa as of this writing-don`t anticipate mvfr but it`s possible it
drops briefly before the lower clouds exit with the front. gusty w-
nw winds shift north by later tonight, diminishing in intensity.
gusts up to 25 to 30 knots are possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 am edt
tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 060920
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
520 am edt mon apr 6 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of colder conditions will exist through tuesday with
temperatures remaining below normal during this time.

- potential for a mix of rain and snow exists this afternoon into
tonight. brief higher intensity bursts of snow showers will be
possible, with a dusting of accumulation on grassy surfaces in some
areas.

- the next good chance for rain will be thursday into friday.

&&

.aviation...

cold air advection paired with daytime heating will reinforce low-
level stratus through the afternoon, with cigs likely remaining low-
end vfr. an upper-level wave paired with very steep low- level lapse
rates brings the likely chance to see scattered to numerous
rain/snow showers with some embedded pea-size hail under the
strongest showers. some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out but
confidence is too low in this setup to highlight a favorable window
for any isolated thunderstorms. some periodic mvfr cannot be ruled
out under any afternoon precipitation. coverage of precipitation
wanes in the late evening hours.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft today.

* moderate for ptype to be rain/snow mix this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 312 am edt mon apr 6 2026

discussion...

general mid level troughing to remain a fixture throughout the early
week period. latest water vapor analysis highlights two distinct,
minor perturbations propagating east-southeast into the broader
lower height anomaly. the first feature on pace to translate across
the local area this morning. latest observational and radar trends
solidify current expectation for a focused, weak area of ascent to
provide a supportive environment for some pockets of very light
precipitation production thru mid morning. subtle window here for
brief, modest warm air advection before another meaningful period of
cold air advection emerges this afternoon and evening as a
secondary, more potent shortwave shears through. daytime heating
beneath a cold mid-level core at 500-700 mb will yield very steep
lapse rates across a deep layer. this environment will support a
scattered to numerous coverage of showers. given lower wet-bulb zero
heights and weak low level instability, some heavier convective
bursts are plausible leading to brief instances of graupel or higher
intensity snow showers, even as temps peak in the 40s. late day
gustiness to northwest wind into the 30 mph range.

strongest period of cold air advection occurs tonight. this process
likely fuels additional light snow shower production, with
enhancement offered by some degree of convergence with the cold
frontal passage and a trailing surface trough migrating off lake
huron. highest probability will exist across the thumb. minor
localized grassy accumulation at less than half an inch expected
given limitation in duration. higher magnitude thermal advection will
lead to 850 mb temps below -12c by tuesday morning. lows in the low
to mid 20s. coldest conditions of the week then noted throughout
tuesday with the low level thermal trough in residence. some
lingering stratus and possible flurries early in the day, before
increasing influence of encroaching high pressure offers greater deep
layer drying and stability. highs tuesday mainly in the 30s.

notable shift in the larger scale pattern for the latter half of the
week, as the mean flow reverts back to pacific origin. modest height
rises will initiate a respectable warming trend starting wednesday,
moderating temperatures back to near normal. warm frontal boundary
will lift through sometime late wednesday with little fanfare given
limited moisture quality, effectively establishing a meaningful
window for deeper warm air advection wednesday night into thursday.
this occurs as a dynamic mid level wave ejecting across the
us/canadian border drags a slow-moving cold front into lower
michigan. backed by a greater influx of moisture under deeper pre-
frontal southwest flow, this will lead to a good chance of rain.
eastward pace of the frontal boundary remains in question at this
stage as the boundary becomes increasingly parallel to the mean
flow. outgoing forecast maintains a broader, more prolonged
opportunity for rain lasting into friday. further forecast revision
likely this period.

marine...

a weakening of the pressure gradient occurs this morning as a
clipper system tracks across the region. this system will excite
another period of cold advection late today through tonight and into
early tuesday, with north to northwest wind increasing to the 15 to
25 kt range with brief gusts to 30 kt over lake huron. small craft
advisories are in effect for the lake huron nearshore waters where
waves will build over 4 feet across the southern basin. high
pressure builds in briefly on tuesday causing wind and waves to
subside. flow then strengthens out of the south on wednesday as the
next low pressure system tracks into the upper midwest. this system
will send a slow-moving cold front across the great lakes thursday
and friday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt tuesday
for lhz421.

small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt tuesday
for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...mr
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.