Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
648 am est fri dec 12 2025

.synopsis...
a weak ridge moves eastward across our region today before a cold
front sweeps generally southeastward across the area on
saturday. behind the cold front, a trough lingers over the great
lakes through sunday as a ridge builds from the north-central
united states to the ohio valley. the ridge will build eastward
across our entire region sunday night and exit to the east on
monday.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
primarily dry weather and periodic cloud breaks are expected
through sunset this evening as a ridge at the surface and aloft
moves e`ward across our region and is accompanied by stabilizing
subsidence. lingering and light lake-effect snow (les) streaming
generally se`ward amidst a sufficiently-cold/moist wnw`erly to
nw`erly mean low-level flow over/downwind of ~3c lake erie
should end by 7 am est or so this morning, as weak lake-induced
cape (licape) wanes via synoptic low-level dry air advection and
a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the building
ridge. additional snow accumulations should be less than one
inch. thus, the winter storm warning and winter wx advisory for
portions of the ne oh/nw pa snowbelt has been cancelled. late
afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 20`s to lower
30`s as an abnormally-cold air mass remains over northern oh and
nw pa.

tonight, the ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward and
gives way to cyclonic w`erly flow aloft as a shortwave trough
aloft approaches from the upper midwest. the attendant cold
front will approach from the western great lakes as associated
surface troughing overspreads our cwa generally from the west.
moistening isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching cold front
and shortwave trough axis may allow isolated snow showers to
blossom over ne oh and nw pa after roughly 2 am saturday
morning. in addition, 850 mb temperatures near -10c
over/downwind of ~3c lake erie, low/mid-level moisture advection
ahead of the cold front and shortwave trough axis, and weak
lake-induced cape (licape) will allow les to blossom this
evening and especially after midnight tonight. a sw`erly to
wsw`erly mean low-level flow will allow the bulk of les to
impact portions of western ny. however, after midnight and
especially toward daybreak, the les should brush the lakeshore
from northeastern cuyahoga county to erie county, pa as mean
low-level flow begins to veer toward w`erly. the les should be
steady to heavy at times per model soundings, which suggest low-
level convergence along the major axis or axes of les banding
will result in a crosshair signature (i.e. allow moderate to
strong ascent to be maximized in a cloudy dgz at least 0.5 to 1
km deep). any nighttime snow accumulations should be one inch or
less. overnight lows should reach mainly the 15f to 25f range.

&&

.short term /saturday through monday night/...
- winter storm watch in effect for the primary snowbelt of ne
oh/nw pa and cuyahoga county from 7 am saturday to 1 am est
this monday

on saturday, the surface cold front should sweep se`ward across
our region between about daybreak and late afternoon, while the
passage of the aforementioned shortwave trough axis should lag
the surface front`s passage by several hours. isolated and
primarily light snow showers should accompany the front`s
passage. however, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the
front should enhance the ongoing les for a time. in addition,
the les should settle s`ward into our primary snowbelt counties
and vicinity as the front`s passage causes mean low-level flow
to veer to w`erly and then wnw`erly, licape remains weak, and
850 mb temps near -10c ahead of the cold front plummet to near
15c below zero behind the front. the les will be steady to
heavy at times due, in part to a crosshair signature. in
addition, another and strengthening shortwave trough should
approach our region from the upper midwest and vicinity as
saturday elapses. the approach of the latter shortwave trough
should allow cyclonic flow aloft to back from w`erly to wsw`erly
over portions of our region and allow frontogenetical
convergence aloft to develop, which combined with moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis, should
allow widespread snow to overspread our region generally from
west to east from about midday through late saturday afternoon.
this widespread snow should be steady to heavy at times,
especially roughly along and south of u.s. route 30, where the
fgen aloft and moist isentropic ascent should allow moderate to
strong ascent to be maximized in a cloudy dgz at least 1 to 2 km
deep, which is a concerning crosshair signature. will let the
day shift reevaluate trends in nwp model guidance, but we may
need to issue a winter wx advisory for the widespread
accumulating snow, especially for our snowbelt counties outside
the current winter storm watch and for our counties roughly
along and south of u.s. route 30. note: the seeder-feeder
process and continued presence of weak licape over lake erie
should enhance the aforementioned les further during the
afternoon hours through sunset. saturday`s daytime highs should
reach the lower 20`s to lower 30`s and be "warmest" farther
east, where a later cold front passage will occur.

during saturday evening, the latter shortwave trough axis
should sweep generally e`ward across our region and be followed
by ridging at the surface and aloft building gradually from the
west through sunday night. the widespread snow preceding the
shortwave trough`s axis should exit our region generally from
west to east saturday evening. the snow should be steady to
heavy at times due to the above-mentioned crosshair signature.
the widespread snow should total 1-5" outside les and the
greatest of these accumulations should be realized roughly along
and south of u.s. route 30. once the widespread snow ends, odds
favor dry weather through sunday night, outside lingering les,
as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. the surface
ridge will be associated with a particularly-cold air mass.
accordingly, overnight lows should reach mainly the 5f to 15f
range saturday night and sunday night, respectively. daytime
highs should reach the 15f to 25f range on sunday. note:
wind chills as cold as 0f to -10f are forecast around daybreak
sunday and monday, respectively.

as for the les, it will be steady to heavy at times and persist
across the snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa and vicinity saturday night
through sunday as mean low-level flow varies between wnw`erly
and nnw`erly, weak to moderate licape exists amidst net low-
level caa and 850 mb temps plummeting further to near -20c,
upstream moisture connections to lakes st. clair and huron
develop and enhance licape over portions of lake erie, and a
periodic crosshair signature is likely realized. during sunday
night, the les should shift n`ward to the primary snowbelt and
vicinity in our cwa as mean low-level flow backs to w`erly. in
addition, the les should weaken due to synoptic low-level dry
air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying
the ridge, which will weaken licape. between daybreak saturday
and daybreak monday, fresh snow accumulations may reach 4-12"
in/near the snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa due to the combination
of localized les and the aforementioned widespread snow. again,
as mentioned above, would not be surprised if we end up having
to issue a winter wx advisory for the snowbelt counties outside
the current winter storm watch. figured the watch would be a
good starting point since the heaviest and most persistent snow
should occur in portions of the watch.

on monday through monday night, the ridge at the surface and
aloft should crest e`ward across our region and eventually begin
to exit toward new england. thus, dry weather is expected in
most of our cwa. however, a shortwave trough aloft should move
se`ward across our region on monday and temporarily weaken the
ridge at the surface and aloft. les is expected to persist over
and downwind of lake erie on monday through most of monday night
amidst at least weak licape and a sufficiently-cold/moist mean
low- level flow that should vary between sw`erly and w`erly.
thus, the les should be transient. ahead of the shortwave trough
axis, moist isentropic ascent may allow scattered snow showers
to occur outside the les, especially in ne oh and nw pa. in
addition, the seeder- feeder process may occur ahead of the
shortwave trough axis and enhance the les for a time. additional
snow accumulations of a coating to several inches are possible.
the les should weaken monday night and end by daybreak tuesday
amidst weakening licape due, in part, to a lowering subsidence
inversion behind the shortwave trough axis. highs should reach
the 20`s on monday. overnight lows should reach the 10f to 20f
range monday night.

&&

.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
current odds favor dry weather this tuesday through tuesday
night as the above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft
continues to exit e`ward. in addition, net and strengthening
low-level waa along the backside of the ridge should be
accompanied by daytime highs in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s on
tuesday and lows mainly in the 20`s tuesday evening before
temperatures begin to moderate after midnight.

a trough at the surface and aloft should overspread our region
from the west on wednesday through thursday. in addition, a cold
front should approach our region from the upper midwest and
vicinity on thursday as net low-level waa persists in northern
oh and nw pa. daytime highs should reach the upper 30`s to lower
40`s on wednesday and the lower 40`s to near 50f on thursday.
a low-level return flow of warm and moist air from the gulf
should undergo isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the front and
primary trough axis aloft, and allow periods of mainly rain to
affect our region wednesday afternoon through thursday. however,
enough nocturnal cooling may allow wet snow to mix with the
rain at times wednesday night, especially in interior nw pa.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
overcast skies remain with ceilings in the 3,000-4,000 ft range.
ceilings will likely continue to vary in that range, with tafs
indicating best chance for mvfr ceilings through this
afternoon/evening. a few snow flurries could linger across
northwest pennsylvania this morning but aviation impacts are
unlikely.

ceilings will gradually lower to 1,500 to 2,500 ft from
southwest to northeast tonight. a few snow showers may also be
possible as a cold front crosses the area. lake effect snow
develops over lake erie, which may move onshore to near keri right
around daybreak saturday morning.

winds will be light and variable, increasing out of the
southwest tonight. winds of around 12 knots with gusts to around
20 knots are expected by saturday morning.

outlook...non-vfr with areawide snow is expected saturday
afternoon into saturday night. lake effect snow will continue
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through monday
night.

&&

.marine...
the small craft advisory has been allowed to expire as conditions
improve on lake erie. should continue to see relatively calm
conditions on lake erie through the day friday as high pressure
briefly builds in.

southwest winds will develop late tonight, with the strongest wind
speeds of 25-30 knots expected saturday morning as a cold front
crosses the area. these strong southwest winds could result in low
water in the western basin of lake erie, with water levels at toledo
approaching the critical mark for safe navigation saturday morning.

following the frontal passage, winds become westerly, and then
northwesterly by saturday night. winds with northwest flow will
generally be in the 15 to 25 knot range, though could approach 30
knots at times sunday afternoon/evening, especially in the central
basin where wave heights up to 6-9 feet may be possible. an extended
small craft advisory for much, if not all, of lake erie is likely
needed starting early saturday morning for the southwest flow and
through at least sunday night to capture the west and northwest flow.

southwest flow of around 20 to 30 knots is expected again on monday
and monday night when small craft advisories will be needed once
again and low water may be possible in the western basin.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter storm watch from saturday morning through late sunday
night for ohz011>014-089.
pa...winter storm watch from saturday morning through late sunday
night for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 am est fri dec 12 2025

.key messages...

- dry for most areas into early saturday. some lake enhanced
snow showers are possible along the shores of lk mi with
generally an inch or less accumulation.

- period of light snow saturday afternoon (accumulations 1 to
maybe 3 inches), transitioning to mainly lake effect snow
showers saturday night into sunday (additional 1 to 3 inches
nw).

- much colder air arrives saturday, lingering into monday. wind
chills of -15 degrees f or lower are likely sunday morning
southwest of route 30.

- above freezing temperatures return tuesday through thursday
with chances for rain.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 314 am est fri dec 12 2025

back edge of light snow, associated with the first of several
clippers was moving across eastern il. far sw parts of the area
(mainly portions of white and cass county) did see some snow and
based on indot cameras probably received at least a few tenths of
new snow. dry conditions will dominate most areas through saturday
morning as the main energy with the active northern stream trough
passes mainly to the north of the area. a brief window of w to wnw
flow will setup, with marginal delta ts and limited
moisture/inversion heights resulting in a period of light snow
tonight into early saturday for portions of laporte, berrien and
maybe cass counties. accumulations, if any, should be an inch or
less.

stronger clipper system and associated punch of arctic air, will
take aim on the area late sat morning into the afternoon hours with
a burst of light synoptic snowfall. overall accumulations look to be
on the order of 1 to 2 inches (maybe a bit higher south of us-24).
as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 c or lower saturday night through
sunday night, a more pronounced lake response should commence with
moderate lake induced instability and inversion heights 8-10 kft.
currently leaning towards potential accumulations of at least 1 to 3
and some potential for higher amounts depending on the final fetch.
headlines may be needed in this time frame, but confidence not high
enough to hoist anything this far out.

lows in the single digits (above and below zero) are expected
saturday night, with the coldest temperatures across sw areas away
from the lake effect clouds and precip. sub zero wind chills are
still in store for the entire area with -5 to -10 f under the cloud
cover and a sharp gradient of -15 to -20 f where skies are clear. a
wind chill advisory will likely be needed for these areas in the
next issuance or 2. skies begin to clear out across a larger area
sunday night into early monday with overnight lows -5 to +5 f and
wind chills roughly -10 to -15 f.

a more pronounced shift in the patter will commence monday
night and persist through the end of the period with highs
climbing above freezing during the day to allow for melting of
the snowpack across the area. aiding in the process with be a
few chances for rain.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 618 am est fri dec 12 2025

brief mvfr is possible during the next two hours but a period
of vfr is anticipated by late morning through early afternoon as
we reside in between systems. another shortwave then arrives
overnight with more mvfr (fuel alternate) stratus likely. some
lake-enhanced snow is also possible at ksbn tonight but
westerly flow and northward displacement of better forcing will
likely keep snow confined to michigan. gusty northwest winds are
anticipated by early sat morning behind the cold front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
556 am est fri dec 12 2025

.key messages...

- bitter cold temperatures for the weekend into monday.

- the coldest period looks to be saturday night and sunday morning,
when wind chill readings are forecast to drop to 5 to 15 degrees
below zero.

- a couple opportunities to get a little light snow, particularly
this evening/tonight and on monday. otherwise, localized snow along
the southern michigan border saturday afternoon, and along the
eastern thumb shoreline sunday.

- a dramatic warmup is then forecasted tuesday-thursday next week,
as temps likely push aoa 40 degrees, setting the stage for potential
rain.

&&

.aviation...

moisture remains trapped below an inversion based at approximately
4.0 kft agl for the detroit taf sites this morning. mid to upper
level high pressure will pass eastward through portions of the
northern lake huron basin today. vfr conditions today and this
evening with strengthening and lowering subsidence between 2.5 and
14.0 kft agl. strong static stability will then be slow to erode
tonight as moisture in advance of an arctic front advects across the
region. seeding of ice crystals aloft will fall into an airmass in
the lowest 5.0 kft agl that will be supersaturated with respect to
ice. not a significant amount of lift but enough saturation and
microphysics to help generate some snowflakes in the 3 to 11z time
window north to south.

for dtw...mainly vfr ceilings today and this evening. a potential
for brief mvfr light snow saturday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this morning with lower
confidence in scattering of clouds today. high tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 248 am est fri dec 12 2025

discussion...

a shortwave tracking through far southern lake michigan has helped
sustain clouds over much of southern lower michigan, holding temps
in the low to mid 20s at press time. areas which cleared out,
northern thumb region, tanked into the single numbers. inversion
heights are forecasted to lower slightly, thus still opportunity for
low clouds to scour out and temps to dip, but there is also some
high clouds noted across the area.

strong pv anomaly over the central canada with additional upper
level energy coming out of the gulf of alaska on track to move
through the central great lakes saturday and saturday night. bitter
cold arctic airmass will overspread lower michigan, with -30 to -32
c advertised at 700 mb, with lake michigan modified 850 mb temps of
-20 c or slightly colder for second half of the weekend. meanwhile,
aggressive height falls tracking through the northern great lakes
this evening, tapering off toward the southern michigan border. none-
the-less, with west-southwest flow coming off lake michigan and the
low level convergence/fgen of the arctic front moving through, a
period of scattered-numerous snow showers looks likely as 1.75-2.0
g/kg of 850 mb specific humidity tracks through saturday evening-
night. with short lived forcing at any given location (<3 hrs),
would expect accumulations of a dusting to less than an inch.
excellent drying and subsidence to follow frontal passage, with mean
850-700 mb dew pts depressions of 25 c taking hold over the bulk of
southeast michigan. this will be key, as very strong jet streak (90-
100 knots at 500 mb) and another impressive 500 mb height fall
center tracks through the northern ohio valley during
saturday/saturday evening. locations along and especially south of i-
94 could get clipped with the northern fringe of the snow shield,
but the forcing/airmass is colder than the dgz, and snowflakes
should be fine, and thus would only expected another dusting to
perhaps an inch right along the border.

as usual with the very dry arctic airmass, tough to gauge how much
lake clouds/light snow showers/flurries make it eastward saturday
night, as surface dew pts of -15 to -20 f spread into wisconsin.
even if skies do in fact clear out, looks like surface winds will
not be able to fully decouple, with light surface winds preventing
temps from cratering much below zero. euro ensembles indicating 40-
50 percent chance of 2m temps dropping at or below zero over central
sections of the cwa at 12z sunday. none-the-less, that will place
wind chills in the 10 to 15 below zero range. will have to keep a
close eye on the eastern thumb shoreline on sunday as winds do look
to veer around to the north-northwest as the mid level cold
pool/wave exits the central great lakes.

shortwave coming over the top of the upper level ridge over the
rockies swings through lake huron on monday. pretty good isentropic
ascent progged with just enough moisture to support light snow
showers, epsecially as one heads north. right now, 00z canadian
looks to be one of the more aggressive solutions, with 5 hundreths
to a tenth of an inch of qpf. nbm pops have at least increased to
more solid chance pops.

warm air breaking off from the upper level ridge off the west coast
next week as the upper level flow transitions to the zonal over the
northern conus by mid week. nbm temps indicating low to mid 40s by
thursday with a good chance of rain as next deepening low pressure
system enters the picture.

marine...

elongated area of high pressure remains centered over the region
today before sliding southward into the ohio valley this evening
into tonight. this will provide a brief period of lower winds and
wave heights today which ramp back up tonight in advance of the next
low pressure system. this low will track across ontario friday night
while pulling an arctic front across the region. this very cold
airmass will again bring increased westerly winds across the area
with wide spread gusts to 30 knots across much of lake huron and
sporadic gusts to gales possible during the weekend as 850 mb temps
plummet to -20 c. at a minimum, another round of small craft
advisories will need to be issued at some point for tonight through
much of the weekend as the arctic air holds over the region. this
cold airmass and elevated winds will also lead to potential snow
squalls and freezing spray as well.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am est monday for
lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est saturday
for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sf
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.