Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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021
fxus61 kcle 221943
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
343 pm edt wed jul 22 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast remains generally on track with no significant
changes.

&&

.key messages...
1) below normal temperatures and dry conditions will trend towards
seasonal values by saturday.

2) chances of showers and thunderstorms return sunday into the early
part of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
upper level trough responsible for the cooler airmass over the
region will pivot east into new england on thursday. meanwhile
high pressure will expand at the surface across the central
great lakes maintaining cool and dry conditions to end the week.
overnight lows through thursday night will be in the low 50s
and high temperatures will gradually warm 3-5 degrees each day
through saturday. a healthy cumulus deck of clouds is expected
inland again on thursday but will tend to clear late afternoon.
mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions continue through
saturday.

key message 2...
active weather will return sunday into monday as the upper
level ridge expands eastward into the central great lakes
accompanied by the moisture and instability axis. dewpoints
return to the mid 60s with ml cape values of 1000-2000 j/kg on
sunday. a shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will
likely provide a focus for scattered thunderstorms and
sufficient shear is expected for some storms to be strong. by
monday a warm front will be in the vicinity and likely act as a
focus for additional thunderstorm activity. given uncertainty in
placement and coverage will keep most areas at scattered
coverage for now but could trend up once we gain confidence in
timing. temperatures will trend back to more summer like
conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s and increasing
humidity to start the week.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period as high pressure
builds into the great lakes region. there are a few pockets of 2-
3kft foot ceilings due to the lake effect clouds, but have been
intermittent. ceilings should dissipate later this evening, and
expect a scattered deck around 5kft overnight into tomorrow morning.
there`s low potential in patchy fog developing from kcak to kyng,
though confidence is low in impacts to the terminals.

winds will be 5-10 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots across
the region through 00z tonight. overnight, winds will be light and
variable with the high pressure building in. by 13-14z tomorrow
morning, winds will become predominately out of the north at around
5 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms on
sunday into monday.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie have improved over the course of the day
and the small craft advisory and beach hazard statement have been
cancelled. high pressure builds into the region this evening with
winds subsiding to less than 10 knots out of the north overnight
with waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. winds will become less than 5
knots and variable thursday morning through much of friday. the high
pressure will drift off to the east by early saturday and winds will
shift to be out of the south to southwest at around 5 knots. late
saturday into sunday, a tough will move through the great lakes with
winds shifting to be out of the west at around 10 knots into
monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 221744
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
144 pm edt wed jul 22 2026

.key messages...

- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake michigan
beaches today through tonight. stay out of the water and off
of piers!

- dry, cooler, and less humid conditions expected into the
weekend.

- warmth and humidity returns sunday and monday, which also
happens to be when the next chance for storms (20-40%).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 142 pm edt wed jul 22 2026

behind yesterday`s cold front, surface high pressure noses into the
area and continues affecting us with drier conditions and below
normal temperatures until saturday. looking at naefs climatology
between mid july and early august on the ensemble sit table, 850 mb
temperatures cooler than 8c happens about once in every 10 yrs or so
in parts of n in and nw oh midday today. the coolest night in this
period is tonight and then we slowly warm with lows back above 60
degrees again saturday night.

a strong theta-e plume pushes back through the area midday saturday
with 70 degree dew points returning overnight and 850 mb
temperatures achieving 18+c again by sunday morning. at this point,
we have a ridge over the western us and a trough over the eastern
us, putting our area in a northwest flow regime, which would seem to
indicate the possibility of mcss or ridge riders. sunday morning has
what appears to be an outflow boundary or at least some sort of
temperature gradient entering the area. then there appears to be a
more concrete upper pv anomaly associated with upper divergence and
sfc convergence on the gfs (with some model confluence from the
ecmwf with having a similar pv anomaly moving through sunday
morning) that usually occurs in the vicinity of mcss perhaps
indicating the potential for such an occurrence sunday afternoon
depending on the state of the area after the morning outflow
boundary. we actually have some effective shear around on saturday
into saturday night, but instability appears rather weak at less
than 1000 j/kg. shear is gone by the time we get into sunday though.
perhaps another opportunity for stronger storms is some time on
monday. the gfs has better shear in the morning with thermal
boundaries around as well as instability. the wxnext ai model
indicates the best chance for severe weather is that monday time
frame.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 137 pm edt wed jul 22 2026

lake enhanced and diurnally enhanced vfr low clouds continue at
terminals this afternoon with skies expected to become mostly
clear this evening. some brief gusts into the 15 to 20 knot
range are possible through 22z, but decoupling should occur
quickly this evening as a ridge of high pressure approaches from
the west. this will result in light and variable or calm winds
tonight, with light winds expected to persist through this
period. some additional vfr cu is expected to develop again
thursday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through thursday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 1 am edt thursday for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 221954
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
354 pm edt wed jul 22 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected through the
rest of the workweek.

- next chance for showers/storms arrives late saturday night into
sunday while temperatures climb into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.discussion...

dissipating right jet exit region over southern lower michigan is
still facilitating upper level convergence, leading to a weak
subsidence tendency. this occurs as longwave troughing remains
entrenched across most of the great lakes region for the next 24
hours, with a vortmax sweeping across northeast lower and northern
lake huron. forecast soundings indicate a seasonably dry column with
the 22.18z kdtx raob measuring a pwat near 0.55 inches, below the
climatological 10th percentile. diurnal cumulus positioned just
below a 5 kft inversion layer wanes this evening, after the boundary
layer decouples. expect mostly clear skies overnight as surface high
pressure builds southeastward. winds trend toward calm after
midnight as the gradient relaxes.

the surface ridge centers over chicago on thursday with the longwave
axis departing east. this results in mid level flow turning zonal
amidst geopotential height rises. 850 mb temperatures are forecast
to moderate, given the anticyclonic orientation to the lower column
flow. warm advection setup lifts values to around 11c by thursday
afternoon, marking a steady warming trend that should progress
through the weekend. favorable insolation conditions arise given a
low cloud fraction and weak winds, lifting highs into the upper 70s.

the current stretch of dry weather persists friday as the center of
the anticyclone drifts east, settling over the ohio valley. this
causes surface flow to back toward the south-southeast, initiating
the gradual rise in dewpoints over the weekend. winds aloft begin to
strengthen friday night and into saturday as the synoptic pattern
becomes more active. a large ridge over the western half of conus
amplifies with stronger embedded flow rounding the apex. this
interfaces with a deep upper low over hudson bay. expect the
resident dry air to delay saturation until late saturday or early
sunday, ahead of an ejecting ridge-running shortwave targeting
southeast michigan. showers and storms are possible with this wave
as moisture/instability increase. sunday or monday appears to be the
warmest day of the forecast period, with highs briefly breaking
above normal, into the upper 80s.

&&

.marine...

northwest winds peaked late this afternoon in the 20 to 30 knot
range as low-level cold advection has largely exhausted itself.
however, elevated waves over the southern lake huron basin will take
time to subside below 4 feet; small craft advisories remain in
effect into the evening hours.

850 mb temperatures, currently at or slightly below 7 c, will
gradually warm over the next couple of days, reaching around 12 c on
friday. with the center of the surface ridge over the southern great
lakes thursday into friday, the lightest winds will be over lake st.
clair and lake erie. even over lake huron, wind speeds should remain
predominately under 20 knots. a surface trough slowly passing
through during the weekend will bring a good chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms, though winds are expected to remain light.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt wed jul 22 2026

aviation...

breezy northwest winds gradually decrease through the afternoon-
evening as surface high pressure becomes more established over se
mi. healthy vfr diurnal cu field has developed within this cooler
flow and persists through the daylight hours before dissipating
overnight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through the taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-
441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......sf
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.