Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
883
fxus61 kcle 080000
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
800 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

.what has changed...
there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. the main severe weather
threat will be damaging wind gusts.

&&

.key messages...
1) warm and unsettled with periodic chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms through saturday afternoon.

2) strong to severe thunderstorms are possible monday. heavy
rainfall is also possible early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a quasi-stationary front is currently located across the
region. there is a warm and very humid airmass also across the
region. widely scattered showers and storms are redeveloping
this afternoon with some help from a weak lake breeze and old
outflow boundaries too. a broad upper level trough has setup
over the great lakes region. around the base of this upper level
trough will bring weak disturbances to aid in the development
of scattered showers and storms. a round of scattered convection
is expected to develop this afternoon for areas of neoh and
nwpa. this round will move eastward through the evening. another
round of scattered convection will develop over nwoh later this
evening and track eastward across northern ohio into nwpa
overnight. a couple strong to severe storms may be possible with
damaging wind gusts as the main threat. there is a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) highlighted from spc for the rest of today.

we will start off the day saturday fairly quiet. but the quasi-
stationary front will push through as as weak cold front during
the afternoon with additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. weak high pressure will build into the
area saturday night and sunday with a drier forecast. high
temperatures will be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

key message 2...
the weather pattern becomes more unsettled for the early part of
next week. a broad upper level trough will continue to be over
the great lakes region for early next week. another cold front
will drop down through the great lakes on monday and slow down
as it moves into our area. multiple rounds of convection will be
possible along this slow moving or quasi-stationary boundary
monday through wednesday. spc has highlighted the area in a day
4 severe weather outlook on monday. the main severe weather
threat will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. heavy
rainfall will also be a concern for monday into tuesday. wpc has
the area highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall
both monday and tuesday. timing of these multiple rounds of
convection is a little uncertain at this time. widespread
several inches of rainfall is very possible monday through
wednesday. the quasi-stationary front may finally push south of
the area by thursday into friday with lower rain chances and
slightly cool, less humid air.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon, with pockets of non-
vfr in thunderstorms and/or lower ceilings becoming more likely
overnight from southwest to northeast across the region. highest
confidence for direct taf impacts resides across the interior at
fdy/mfd/cak/yng where tempos have been introduced, though some
potential still exists at cle where prob30 has been retained.
otherwise, the next potential for non-vfr conditions will be
saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves east
through the area, though confidence on coverage and direct taf
impacts remains low.

winds are generally light and favoring a southerly direction
this evening, 5 knots or less. winds will gradually become out
of the southwest late saturday morning and early afternoon,
increasing to 8 to 12 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms along a cold front saturday evening. non-vfr
becoming more likely in showers and thunderstorms sunday night
through tuesday. some storms could be strong to severe during
this timeframe, especially on monday.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly flow 5-15 knots continues through
tonight before low pressure gliding east through the great
lakes drags a cold front across lake erie on saturday. winds
will turn onshore behind the front saturday night, remaining
between 10-15 knots. waves are expected to remain 2 feet or less
through the weekend. an area of high pressure will move
overhead on sunday leading light winds through sunday evening.
winds eventually favor southwesterly and return to 10-15 knots
sunday night through midweek. marine headlines are not
anticipated given largely offshore flow through the weekend and
beginning of next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...kahn
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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260
fxus63 kiwx 072333
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
733 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

.key messages...

- isolated to scattered storm chances (20-50%) this afternoon into
this evening, mainly along and south of the us 24 corridor.

- there is a slight chance (20%) for a brief shower or storm on
saturday.

- an active pattern brings periodic chances (50-70%) for
thunderstorms later sunday into early next week. heavy rain
and chances for strong to severe storms possible with this
activity, best chances monday afternoon into monday night.

- seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

a subtle shortwave will lift into southern and eastern portions of
the forecast area this afternoon into this evening with enough
ascent and instability for isolated to scattered showers/storms,
best chances (30-50%) along and south of the us 24 corridor. lower
chances (20%) to the northwest along any outflow/differential
heating boundaries. flow and lift through the column remain weak
with locally heavy rainfall and a few lightning strikes potential
hazards.

broad upper trough axis will swing east through the great lakes
later tonight into saturday. this will force an upstream cold front
southeast through the area later saturday morning into saturday
afternoon. overall moisture quality and frontal forcing appears weak
with only a low chance pop (20%) for a brief shower/storm with the
frontal passage and/or a leading pre-frontal feature. drier air does
briefly make inroads then into saturday night and sunday morning
post-frontal with sfc dewpoints falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

a more active period of monitoring convective complexes riding west-
northwest flow aloft remains in play later sunday through the middle
of next week. the initial theta-e surge in advance of a returning
warm front sunday afternoon into sunday night brings decent chances
for convection, though capping and uncertainty on if a mcs dropping
southeast through il/mo delays the moisture return with pops limited
in the chance to likely category (40-70%) for now. a quasi-zonal
frontal boundary then lingers in the general vicinity monday through
wednesday on the northern fringes of a southern conus subtropical
ridge with several rounds of rain and storms possible. this pattern
has the potential to yield some hydro issues, along with a threat
for strong to severe storms, particularly monday afternoon into
monday night.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 733 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

with the area in a sort of bermuda high pattern, a trough across the
northern tier of the conus brings a mid level vort max through the
area overnight. this is enough to keep the chance for showers in the
vicinity of fwa tonight, but probably stays just far enough south to
avoid a prevailing group in fwa. we ended up with fog this morning
and, especially if fwa ends up with rain overnight, could see some
fog developing there. it may be that sbn ends up with more stratus
than fog. also cannot rule out some stratus with this. a cold front
swings through saturday morning and brings a chance for showers that
could affect fwa during the midday time period. given only 20 pops
at this time, will leave it out of tafs. there could be a period of
mvfr conditions with it as it passes, but again, confidence is not
high enough. otherwise, sustained winds reaching 10 kts could occur
as early as around 18z saturday, but will leave timing this out to
the next issuance of these tafs. southwest winds slowly veer
westerly through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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107
fxus63 kdtx 080342
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1142 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

.key messages...

- isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms today
through the weekend. better coverage of showers and storms possible
monday.

- temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend, with highs
mainly in the 80s.

&&

.aviation...

prefrontal trough crossing the region saturday morning looks to
support lowering ceilings, though still vfr, and perhaps a few
isolated showers. confidence is too low for coverage too include in
current forecast however. main cold front crosses late morning-
afternoon offering better potential for scattered showers. late
morning arrival over the northern terminals favors mainly showers,
though the afternoon arrival for the detroit sites does offer a
chance for some thunder development. breezy west-northwest winds
follow the cold front with peak gusts between 20-25kts. clouds clear
with light winds returning as high pressure builds in post-front
saturday night.

d21/dtw convection... low potential for a thunderstorm saturday
afternoon between 17z and 21z as a cold front tracks across the
airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling aob 5000 ft tonight. moderate saturday
morning/afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms saturday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 341 pm edt fri aug 7 2026

discussion...

we currently reside under a broad upper level trough downstream of
the primary trough axis located over mn. we are in a relative lull
in the pattern with thunderstorms along the main trough axis well to
the west and also to our east with the shortwave that passed through
overnight. locally, a narrow axis of mid level forcing seen on water
vapor imagery passing over the state this afternoon is expected to
help touch off isolated showers and storms utilizing the 1000-2000
j/kg of cape building up. shear remains weak, topping out around 20
knots currently so not expecting much in the way of stronger storms
organizing. wealth of dry air in the mid levels should also help
keep storms from getting too strong. spc meso analysis does have
dcape up around 1100 j/kg so any stronger storm will have
capabilities to produce a microburst. additional isolated storms
will be possible overnight as models indicate some strengthening in
the mid level vorticity band over far southern mi. loss of daytime
heating should help minimize coverage during this time.

saturday again poses a risk of isolated showers and storms although
latest guidance has trended down with expected coverage. as the main
trough axis arrives, a weak cold front will be tracking across
souther mi. the system looks to be disjointed with strong mid level
support arriving prior to 12z, weak low level jet arriving after 12z
coincident with a potential prefrontal trough which will push the
bulk of the instability east of the region, before the front sweeps
through in the early evening. there are enough pieces that could
briefly overlap with model estimates of around 1000-1500 j/kg of
cape building early in the day. spc day 2 outlook is for general
thunderstorms.

sunday looks mostly dry as ridging to the south folds over through
southern mi. we will be watching to the west as the next strong
shortwave starts advancing across the plains with surface low
pressure setting up around iowa and the warm front extending across
il and in. models are already indicating ridge running type mcs
activity with a complex possibly pushing across southern mi sunday
night into monday morning. for this setup along the warm front, spc
has already put locations south of a line from grand rapids to
detroit in a slight risk for severe weather.

general troughing and northwesterly flow across the region should
lead to cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week, with
highs back down in the upper 70s. this setup will also lead to
periodic rain chances.

marine...

most marine areas will remain relatively dry for the remainder of
the day. there is a chance for isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity overnight and into saturday as a cold front pushes across
the region. winds will generally remain on the lighter side outside
of any thunderstorm activity that does occur. southerly flow will
turn northwest going through the day on saturday behind the
departing cold front and may briefly top at or above 20 knots over
northern lake huron. high pressure then builds back in late saturday
into sunday before switching back to the south ahead of another
system set to impact the region monday. rain and thunderstorm
activity will remain low through the weekend, with better chances
for unsettled weather coming in at the start of next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...drk
marine.......ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.