Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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066
fxus61 kcle 071143
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
643 am est sat feb 7 2026

.what has changed...
winter weather advisories have expired, though localized lake
effect snow and patchy blowing snow will linger today. quiet
weather is then expected to end the weekend and for the early
portions of the upcoming work week.

&&

.key messages...
1) it remains frigid this weekend, with cold weather advisories
and extreme cold warnings remaining in effect until 12:00 pm
today. additional advisories may be needed for tonight.

2) lingering lake effect snow may produce localized, light
accumulations today. patchy blowing snow also continues.

3) outside of a small snow chance in western ohio early sunday,
primarily dry weather is favored for the end of the weekend and
start of the upcoming work week.

4) multiple systems are expected to move west to east across the
eastern u.s. mid to late week. it is uncertain if any of these
systems will track far enough north to bring measurable
precipitation to the area, leading to a low confidence forecast
in terms of precip types, chances, and amounts.

5) after a surge of above-average temperatures on tuesday,
temperatures should be near normal the rest of the week.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
no changes to the cold weather headlines for this morning, with
a cold weather advisory in effect for all of northern ohio and
an extreme cold warning for our pa counties until noon today.
minimum wind chills this morning of generally 10 to 20 below are
expected across ohio, closer to 20 to 30 below in northwest pa.

high temperatures today will range from the single numbers
across the higher terrain of northeast oh and northwest pa to
the mid to upper 10s across northwest oh, with wind chills
warming above 0 across northwest oh this afternoon and to a 0 to
10 below range elsewhere. the low temperature and wind chill
forecast tonight is tricky. high pressure will be nearly
overhead, supporting light to nearly calm winds but also strong
radiational cooling...if we stay clear. some lake effect clouds
may continue into northwest pa, with some mid-high level clouds
likely to spread in from the west overnight. the current
forecast stuck close to the nbm given the various sources of
uncertainty, calling for lows in the single digits above to the
west and in the single digits below to the east. as it is,
forecast temperatures and winds bring wind chills to -10 to -15
across far northeast oh and northwest pa tonight. for now, am
not hoisting any cold headlines for tonight into early sunday,
though advisories may be needed. ambient air temperatures do
have some potential to get colder than the current forecast
(potentially below -10f in typical cold spots) if a prolonged
period of clear skies plays out tonight.

sunday will still be frigid but slightly less so, with high
temperatures expected to get well into the 10s to perhaps low
20s, "warmest" west and coldest across pa where the hills may
still stay in the single digits. wind chills will climb above 0
on sunday outside of the higher terrain of northwest pa. lows
sunday night will again have quite a bit of spread with high
pressure over the eastern portion of the area and potential to
get quite cold where skies remain clear. the current forecast
lows are similar to saturday night, either side of 0 and warmer
west/colder east, with some potential for typical cold spots in
northeast oh and northwest pa to get to -10f or colder if a
period of clearer skies play out. light to calm winds sunday
night should preclude cold headlines.


.key message 2...
a dry arctic airmass, low inversion heights of 4-5k feet, and
mainly frozen lake erie is leading to limited lake effect snow
early this morning. the primary focus is a band connected to
lake huron, bringing snow to far northeast oh and northwest pa
early this morning. there are a few flurries or light snow
showers as far west as eastern erie/huron counties where some
limited moisture is being picked up off of lake erie. any snow
accumulations should be confined to the band off of lake huron,
with this band expected to persist over far northeast oh early
this morning before drifting east into pa during the day today.
this band may linger near the ny/pa border tonight into sunday.
additional accumulations of an inch or so may occur on a
localized basis under this band through today, and with the very
cold temperatures this will accumulate on roads and make them
snow-covered or slick on a localized basis. by tonight and
sunday, even if this band persists across parts of northwest pa
it is expected to be too light to add additional accumulations.

otherwise, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph out of the northwest will
continue today, especially east of the i-77 corridor as high
pressure builds from the west. some patchy blowing snow can
continue in more open areas until wind gusts subside further
late this afternoon into this evening.

let all winter weather advisories drop as scheduled, though
folks should be prepared for at least locally less than ideal
conditions where blowing snow or lake effect snow linger today.


.key message 3...
a narrow swath of light snow may brush our far western counties
early sunday, as a shortwave dives from the upper midwest into
the ohio valley. this system has trended a bit weaker and
farther west in recent guidance. overall, much of the area
should remain dry early sunday, though will monitor for a bit of
light snow to try to get into far northwest oh. dry weather is
otherwise favored to end the weekend and start the week. a weak
cold front crosses late tuesday or tuesday night, though most
models and ensemble members have a dry frontal passage.


.key message 4...
the weather pattern for mid to late week is expected to feature
a trough over the southwest us, a muted ridge over the central
u.s., and blocking/ridging over central and eastern canada,
pinning a persistent trough off the new england coast. behind
this trough, generally west-northwest flow is expected from the
midwest into the great lakes. this pattern will support
shortwaves ejecting east out of the southwest, though the
blocking over eastern canada and persistent trough to our east-
northeast may keep the storm track to our south. still, between
potential for a shortwave or two to drop out of the upper
midwest and into the region...and potential for systems
tracking across the southern u.s. to try to track farther north
in the vicinity of thursday or friday if something stronger/more
organized can take shape...the forecast has various chances for
precip wednesday through friday. precip type is not confident,
though after midweek the pattern is not warm, and would lean
towards a more wintry scenario if we see precip later this week.
overall there`s lower confidence in the forecast wednesday
through friday and some wintry precip is possible, though
nothing currently stands out as a potentially significant storm.


.key message 5...
a brief period of above-average temperatures is expected on
tuesday, with highs likely to get into the 40s for much of the
area! unfortunately, the week as a whole doesn`t look all that
warm, with a cooler trend back towards normal (but not nearly as
frigid as what we`re seeing now) by thursday and friday. we will
need to watch our mainly frozen over rivers for ice jam concerns
as we warm, though the impression is the brief early-week mild
spell, accompanied by no precip, should not cause many issues.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr except where current snow showers persist, mainly over yng
for a few more hours today. winds easing, but still have gusts
15-25kts for the eastern terminals through the afternoon hours,
and not as strong for the western terminals at fdy/tol. high
pressure settles into the region for the weekend with northwest
winds less than 10kts by sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain/snow showers tuesday night
into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains nearly completely ice-covered. gale force
northwesterly winds ease to 15-25kts this afternoon, and then become
variable under 10kts through late sunday with high pressure over
the southern great lakes. winds southerly at 10kts through monday
night, then southwesterly 10-20kts through early tuesday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until noon est today for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...extreme cold warning until noon est today for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 7 am est this morning for lez142>148-
162>168.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
027
fxus63 kiwx 071025
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
525 am est sat feb 7 2026

.key messages...
- lake effect snow will slowly taper off this morning with only
a few tenths of additional accumulation expected.

- another clipper system will bring an inch or less of snow late
tonight into sunday morning.

- after highs around 20 today, we will slowly warm up next week
with highs around 40 by tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 200 am est sat feb 7 2026

les ongoing across our northwest cwa this morning in favorable nnw
fetch. accumulations have been severely limited though due to
upstream dry air entrainment (source is northern wi/western u.p.
where surface dewpoints are below zero) and inversion heights only
around 5 kft. this is enough to support some light snow but
intensity will continue to wane through the day as winds slowly
back, inversion heights drop, and dry air takes an increasing toll.
any additional accumulation will only be a few tenths and should
taper off to flurries by late morning, dry by afternoon. continued
light caa today will keep highs around 20f but should see some some
sun between decaying lake effect clouds.

yet another shortwave arrives overnight but this one is decidedly
weaker than yesterday. the associated upper level jet streak is far
less impressive as is the corresponding low level theta-e advection
and stability profile. still a brief window with sufficient
ascent/fgen and moisture to generate some light snow roughly 09-15z
though and bumped up pops as a result. models have been bouncing
around with the exact placement of the fgen band but latest guidance
seems to settle roughly along and just south of us-30. here,
localized amounts up to an inch are possible but areas ne and sw of
this band could easily remain dry. lows tonight may touch single
digits but winds will be light and no cold weather headlines will be
needed.

upper level pattern finally shifts early next week as large ridge
over the western conus finally breaks east. waa begins late sun
(pushing highs into the mid/upper 20s) and really increases late mon
into tue when 850mb temps exceed 10c. obviously our deep, cold
snowpack will limit highs but some 40s possible on tue, especially
in the southwest where snowpack is much thinner. ensemble-heavy nbm
still gives some low chance pop`s tue night/wed am but these will
likely be removed if trends continue. better chances for precip
later in the week but models are showing a huge amount of spread
during this time and confidence in any particular scenario is very
low. this impacts both pop`s and temps.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 525 am est sat feb 7 2026

lake effect snow showers persist on radar but are still only
virga due to large dew point depressions. this was overcome at
nearby kbeh, thus, the mention continues in the taf but is now
only 6sm. the band has shifted notably to the east in response
to incoming high pressure. high confidence in this band
dissipating in the window of 15z.

otherwise today, at both taf sites, an uncertain cloud cover
forecast with broken mvfr stratus spilling in from michigan.
guidance appears to too pessimistic vs current observations
which decreases forecast confidence. cloud cover increases
further tonight ahead of a clipper system arriving near 09z.
upstream visibility observations will need to be monitored, but
for now, low-end mvfr with snow appears most likely. cannot
rule out a period of ifr visibility depending on snowflake size.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for miz081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
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fxus63 kdtx 071039
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
539 am est sat feb 7 2026

.key messages...

- a winter weather advisory is in effect for huron county early this
morning due to lake effect snow showers. an additional 1-2" possible
before bands shift offshore around the morning commute timeframe.

- a cold weather advisory is in effect for all of southeastern
michigan this morning as wind chills fall to 10 to 15 degrees below
zero.

- above normal temperatures are increasingly possible tuesday and
wednesday of next week.

&&

.aviation...

ongoing arctic air advecting into the region amidst north-northwest
winds has lead to areas of vfr based lake clouds streaming across se
mi. some residual moisture may support scattered vfr based clouds
through the day aided by some diurnal mixing. the degree of dry air
advection will likely limit daytime cloud coverage to scattered.
some nocturnal cooling will lead to a drop in wind speeds/gusts
around and shortly after daybreak. there will some slight uptick in
winds later in the morning with the onset of daytime mixing. wind
speeds will then decrease during the afternoon and evening as high
pressure expands into the region from the west.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 306 am est sat feb 7 2026

discussion...

impressive lake effect response tonight focused into huron county as
-20c 850mb temps and 35-45kt low level flow has allowed short fetch
over far eastern superior to support bands reaching down across most
of huron county. north-northwest winds within the lake aggregate
trough over lake huron also allowed surface convergence over the
limited open waters in the central lake to bend bands into the
county`s eastern lakeshore further fed by the lake superior moisture
plume. based on radar presentation on caset as well as satellite
trends, a short-fused winter weather advisory was opted for. by time
of current discussion, winds expected to shortly begin shifting to
more pure northwesterly flow shunting primary lake effect bands
offshore. still, an additional 1-2 inches of new snow are possible
between now and then. associated lake cloud has helped to blunt
radiative cooling tonight over the northern half of the cwa,
particularly the saginaw valley and thumb with these areas holding
some 5-8 degrees warmer than they`d otherwise be. while this does
temper morning wind chills, se mi will still see values between 10
to 15 below zero. cold weather advisory remains in effect this
morning.

temperatures only reach into the mid to upper teens today as
canadian high pressure maintains cold northwesterly flow through the
day. surface high shifts over lake huron by late tonight as a
shearing shortwave riding overtop the central conus mid-upper ridge
reaches the western great lakes. models have converged on this wave
diving southeast across southern lake michigan/far southwestern mi
sunday morning. influence of the high across the central great lakes
however acts to greatly inhibit snow shower potential this far east.
forecast soundings struggle to reach saturation with areas west of i-
75/us-23 being the only areas that seem to have a shot to marginally
saturate enough for a light snow shower rather than just flurries.

shortwave drops into the ohio valley by early sunday afternoon as
the aforementioned central conus ridging expands over the state.
this deamplifying ridge holds across the central great lakes into
midweek supporting a steady warming trend early week. passing
clipper over the far northern great lakes late monday-tuesday
strengthens lower level southwesterly flow into southern lower mi
with latest model solutions trending warmer (850mb temps potentially
reaching the positive mid single digits). this offers an increasing
chance for se mi to see high temps tuesday in the upper 30s to low
40s. following the passage of the weak cold front late tuesday
evening, quasi-zonal upper flow looking favored to develop across
the central conus keeping lower mi closer to average mid-february
temperatures.

marine...

gale and heavy freezing spray warnings come to an end this morning
as high pressure fills into the area and the pressure gradient
begins to relax. northwest flow remains in tact through the
remainder of the day until the high pressure center slides across
the ohio valley and wind direction takes on a south-southeast
direction. the directional shift occurs just prior to a weak
disturbance tracking across lower michigan early sunday morning,
bringing light snow chances to saginaw bay and points south.
otherwise, wind and wave concerns remain limited through the early
half of next week, particularly as additional ice cover develops
amidst the arctic airmass.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...cold weather advisory until noon est today for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 7 am est this morning for lhz362-363-421-441>443-
462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kdk
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.