Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
615 am est tue jan 13 2026

.what has changed...
there will be a focused window of 0.5-1.5" of snow on wednesday
afternoon and evening with a cold frontal passage. any
meaningful snow behind the front for wednesday night into
thursday will be lake effect for the ne oh and nw pa snow belt
and there remains potential for winter weather advisories. the
weekend system into next week continues to trend slightly colder
with several nights of below zero wind chills.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and breezy conditions are expected
today with some rain showers possible in ne oh and nw pa.

2) rain early wednesday will abruptly transition to snow by
early afternoon, allowing for a potentially messy wednesday
evening commute.

3) temperatures in the teens with below zero wind chills
wednesday night into thursday will pose a minor cold exposure
risk. this cold air mass will also support lake effect snow in
ne oh and nw pa, and hazardous winter travel conditions are
possible through thursday.

4) colder air with below zero wind chills is becoming
increasingly likely this weekend into early next week and more
light snow accumulations are possible.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will enter the region today and reach lake erie. in
the warm sector of this front, temperatures will reach the 40s.
the warm advection regime will allow for some portion of the 40
to 50 kt low level jet to mix to the surface, and southwest
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected this afternoon. a system
passing to the north could allow for some showers along and
north of the warm front this afternoon and evening. any rain
would be limited to near and over lake erie into far ne oh and
nw pa.

key message 2...
a wave of an upper trough will quickly move south from the
northwest territories of canada this morning to the western
great lakes by wednesday morning. this wave will consolidate
into a potent upper trough that will then turn into a closed
upper low by wednesday evening. this feature will support a cold
front across the forecast area on wednesday afternoon, allowing
for rain to quickly change to snow in rapidly falling
temperatures. there are still concerns about a messy commute on
wednesday evening with the combination of the sudden change to
snow with the potential for half inch to one inch snowfall
rates, temperatures plunging from the upper 30s/lower 40s to
upper 20s, and surface/pavement temperatures likely starting
above freezing to quickly falling below freezing. these factors
could allow for hazardous travel conditions across the region.
overall, the snow totals will be a modest 0.5-1.5" across the
area but it may fall in an hour or two, which may be the main
problem. depending on the evolution, it is not hard to see
special weather statements or snow squall warnings be issued.
conditions for snow outside the snow belt will be limited to
just this frontal passage timing, as northwest flow will be
quick to enter the region.

key message 3...
behind the main front on wednesday, the main upper level pattern
stalls out over the area for about 24 hours with a closed upper
low swirling over the lake ontario region. this will allow for
cold, northwest flow to pour into the region and low
temperatures will drop into the teens with some potential for
single digits on wednesday night/thursday morning. winds in the
region will still be elevated with northwest wind gusts of 20 to
30 mph. this would result in wind chills for the thursday
morning commute to be in the -5 to 5 f range, allowing for minor
cold exposure impacts, but a cold weather advisory looks
unlikely at this time.

this cold air mass will also support lake enhanced snow into the
region through thursday, as -18 to -20 c 850 mb temperatures
settle over lake erie by daybreak on thursday. while the lake
induced instability should be good, even with the lake in the
30s, there are concerns about residual moisture in the region to
allow for efficient lake effect snow. it may take upstream lake
connections to lake huron and other lakes to allow for better
snow growth and snow accumulations. therefore, will have a
forecast of generally 2 to 4 inches for the ne oh and nw pa snow
belt from the cold front on wednesday through the lake effect on
thursday. some higher totals are likely in nw pa, as this will
be where the lake huron connection would favor with the
northwest flow. a winter weather advisory may be needed for
wednesday into thursday for at least portions of the snow belt.

key message 4...
for the weekend into next week, another system with cold origins
over northern canada will dive into the great lakes region as a
strong upper trough. this will support a low pressure system
through the area that will bring some light snow accumulations
on saturday and could flare up some lake effect across all
lakes. the most important part of this system appears to be the
even colder air that will settle in. high temperatures will fall
into the teens or lower 20s starting on sunday and low
temperatures will be in the single digits as early as saturday
night. synoptic winds will remain with 10 to 20 mph of flow and
wind chills overnight will start near zero on saturday night and
trend to below zero for the monday and tuesday morning commutes.
there are signals that this colder air mass may trend colder and
that could prompt cold weather advisories next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
widespread vfr conditions today are expected as a warm front
lifts north of the area. there is a slight chance for some light
showers to impact the far northern terminals, although the
highest confidence in these impacting terminals is at keri, but
even then not expecting anything below vfr. these conditions
should persist through much of the period before a cold front
approaches and begins to spread lower ceilings and precipitation
across the area around 09z wednesday. as this happens, terminals
will begin to have diminished mvfr conditions which will persist
into tomorrow. ended all tafs with vcsh given the uncertainty of
extent of precipitation by 12z wed, but will continue to monitor
with newer hi-res guidance.

southwest winds will ramp up through the afternoon to be sustain
at 12-17 knots, gusting up to 30 knots at many terminals.
isolated gusts up to 35 knots are possible along and west of
i71. these winds will weaken to be sustained at 10-13 knots with
gusts periodically up to 20 knots through 06z. after that, winds
should weaken to be sustained at 5-10 knots as winds begin to back
with the frontal boundary approaching.

outlook...non-vfr expected to continue into thursday as rain
transitions to snow showers wednesday, most numerous east of
the i-71 corridor. non-vfr may return in snow showers on friday,
and again on saturday.

&&

.marine...
south-southwest winds will increase to 20-25 knots this morning
as a warm front lifts north across the area. although waves
along the lakeshore will remain 3 feet or less, given the gusty
winds expected, a small craft advisory has been issued for all
nearshore zones. tonight, a cold front pushes east before a
secondary cold front pushes east on wednesday. winds will
gradually back to become northwesterly at 20-25 knots behind the
front. this shift to onshore flow will allow waves to build to
4-6 feet, possible approaching 8 feet in the central basin.
there is a possibility of a brief lull in hazardous marine
conditions early wednesday morning as winds gradually shift,
however given the very short duration opted to have the small
craft advisory extend all the way to thursday afternoon. the
exception is the western basin where there should be a more
notable lull in winds tonight into wednesday morning. conditions
should gradually improve on lake erie on thursday as a ridge
builds in, but this will be short lived as another potent low
impacts the region friday. big takeaway with all of this is that
hazardous marine conditions are expected across lake erie for
much of this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 1 pm est thursday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
622 am est tue jan 13 2026

.key messages...
- low chances for rain or sprinkles today into late this
evening, mainly along and north of the toll road. it will be
breezy with highs in the 40s. light rain and/or snow late
tonight will drop southward through wednesday morning, with
snow more likely along and north of us 24 by early wednesday
morning.

- a winter storm watch is in effect for portions of the area
wednesday morning into thursday afternoon. widespread system
snow persists wednesday, gradually becoming more of a lake
effect event as cold air filters in behind the system. lake
effect persists through thursday afternoon before diminishing.
by thursday afternoon, areas along/east of i 69 will have
seen around 1-2" of snow. near lake michigan, snow totals from
4 to 9 inches are possible, highest west of us 31. blustery
northwest winds will cause blowing and drifting on east-west
roads, especially near lake michigan.

- active weather persists through early next week, with
potential for several system and lake effect snow events.
temperatures become much colder this weekend into early next
week, with low temperatures bottoming out in the single digits
starting saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 603 am est tue jan 13 2026

an active weather week is ahead, with several upper level lows
dropping through, bringing several chances for system and lake
effect snow through early next week. however, the main focus for
this discussion is wednesday into thursday afternoon.

we have a winters storm watch in effect from 7 am est wednesday
through 1 pm est thursday for st. joseph, laporte, starke, and
marshall counties in indiana; and berrien county in michigan. this
is primarily for lake effect snow, however there will be some light
system snow to kick of the event starting wed am. counties in the
watch area could see as much as 4 to 9 inches of snow (locally
higher amounts possible depending on snow band movement/intensity),
with areas just outside of the watch area (along/west of in sr-15)
more in the 2-5 inch range. have high confidence in the system/lake
effect snow occurring overall in this time frame-however confidence
is a little lower for exactly where the band (or bands) sets up, how
far inland they reach, and if it`s more stationary or moves around
enough to distribute the snowfall through a broader area. had the
greatest confidence for warning level snow totals and impacts in the
watch area, and less so outside of that. suspect we`ll need to add
advisories outside the watch area-but it will depend on how the
above mentioned factors evolve in future model runs. for example,
have around 5-6" forecast for pulaski/fulton (in)...but left them
out of the watch given uncertainties in how the bands orient/extend
inland.

as for an overall timeline, light rain or sprinkles are possible
this afternoon into this evening with warm air advection-mainly
along and north of the toll road, but most of the guidance keeps it
north of our area. highs will warm into the mid-upper 40s for some
locations (further south and west). tonight, a broad upper level
trough builds in over the area, with a surface low crossing from
northern ontario into quebec. this will bring an initial cold front
through our cwa this evening (light rain/sprinkle potential) and
another one that passes through from northwest to southeast late
tonight into wednesday as the base of the upper trough/vort max
develops overhead. temperatures overnight will drop into the low-mid
30s north of us 24 by early wed am, and the mid-upper 40s further
south. they will fall through the early morning, with temps diving
into the 20s and low 30s by around 11 am-12 pm et (coldest
north/west). there will likely be a rain/snow mix to start late
tonight in the northwest and into late wednesday morning for areas
south and east. however, snow changes over fairly quickly for the
northwest as temperatures fall. by the end of the day wednesday
areas along/east of i 69 could see around 1-2 inches (lowest
east where rain and/or snow mix will last the longest).

the upper level trough gradually moves east through wednesday,
eventually reaching lake erie sometime thursday evening as it
develops into a closed low. this low continues eastward through
thursday, with a sharp ridge building in behind it (into our cwa).
as this occurs, we`ll see a transition wed afternoon to more of a
lake effect focus that intensifies wednesday night into thursday
morning especially (dissipating/weakening late thursday am/early
thursday afternoon). delta t`s end up around 18 degrees as 850mb
temps drop to around -16 to -17c with 0-1km delta theta-e values
between -3 and -6 k/km. most of the guidance depicts strong north-
northwest flow (some more north than others) through late thu am
before it shifts west-southwest thursday afternoon with the incoming
ridge/surface high pressure. with the flow being more unidirectional
through the atmosphere, expect more of a single dominant band focus
(maybe 2 in some cases...depending on the model run)...with a decent
inland extent given the trough axis is also moving through for the
first portion of the event. there are hints at a lake superior
connection (particularly for the more n-nnw oriented band
solutions), and most of the lift is within a very saturated dgz. i
suspect we`ll see decent snow ratios with this (20:1 probably a good
starting point but wouldn`t be surprised to see higher
values)-though there could be some fracturing to dendrites with
the strong surface winds (gusts of 30-40 mph possible wed into
late wed night/thu am, especially near lake mi). inversion
heights linger around 8kft through most of the event, dwindling
down to around 3-4kft once the incoming ridge builds in for the
afternoon thursday. at this time, have the peak event intensity
wednesday night into thu (with the most snowfall occurring in
that time). some of the high res models suggest once the peak
winds inland die down and the trough axis shifts further south
and east-we could see enhanced convergence from a land breeze-
which could shift the band as far west as porter county,
in...but it`s too early to determine at this point.

with the dropping temperatures wednesday and gusty n-nw winds, we`ll
see wind chills in the single digits and teens above zero. it`s
possible we see wind chills below zero wednesday night into thursday
morning as temperatures drop into the teens.

another upper low or trough moves into the area friday into the
weekend, which will bring us additional snow potential and colder
temperatures.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 622 am est tue jan 13 2026

elevated waa will bring increasing midlevel clouds this morning
but low levels remain dry and vfr will persist through the early
evening. mixing out llj will yield gusts of 25-30 kts from late
morning through early afternoon. caa returns overnight and will
bring the return of mvfr stratus. a much stronger upper low
arrives early wed morning and will bring increasing snow
chances, especially for ksbn. however, any snow looks to arrive
just outside this forecast window.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm watch from wednesday morning through thursday
afternoon for inz012-014-103-104-203-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter storm watch from wednesday morning through thursday
afternoon for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est wednesday for lmz043-046.
gale warning from 4 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
604 am est tue jan 13 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and mild today with a slight chance of wintry mix in the
morning followed by scattered light rain showers.

- snow showers wednesday and wednesday night as arctic air moves into
the region. accumulations between a dusting and 1 inch for most
locations, with 3 to 4 inches possible along the lake huron
shoreline of huron county.

- much colder late this week and into next weekend. thursday and
friday morning wind chill around zero degrees.

- periodic chances for snow will exist friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

a clipper system tracks across ontario today, drawing moisture into
the airspace that equates to a blanket of mid cloud and scattered
shower activity between roughly 18-22z this afternoon. prob30 groups
were added to all terminals to account for these showers, although
restrictions look to be minimal. the tighter pressure gradient
around the low establishes gusty southwest flow, with potential for
gusts to reach 30 knots this afternoon. eastward progression of the
low then supports a veering trend to the wind field tonight as winds
become westerly. more impactful conditions arrive early wednesday
morning and carry beyond the taf period as a strong cold front dives
south across the airspace. a sharp wind shift to the northwest,
gusty winds, and snow showers all accompany this fropa wednesday
morning. drier nature of this arctic front leaves questions about
snow shower coverage and intensity to be worked out in later
updates, but did include general fropa timing with this update.

for dtw... a strong cold front reaches dtw between 10z-13z wednesday
morning, marked by snow shower activity and an abrupt shift to
northwest flow. snow will be greatest in intensity and coverage
along the front, although light snow showers may continue through
the morning. breezy northwest winds develop behind the front, with
gusts generally holding below 30 knots to limit crosswind concerns
at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 feet today, medium tonight.

* high for precipitation type of rain this afternoon. high for snow
after 06z wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 am est tue jan 13 2026

discussion...

firm southwest low level gradient evident immediately downstream of
an inbound clipper system will remain the catalyst for ongoing warm
air advection this morning. the inbound thermal ridge /+4c 850 mb
temps/ will mark the warmest conditions noted this entire forecast
period, effectively leading to a daylight peak in temperatures of
around 40 degrees many locations. narrow wing of heightened moist
isentropic ascent flanking an initial weak period of height falls
will maintain a chance of light precipitation production today.
marginal wet bulb temps may initially afford a few melting
snowflakes with any activity across the north this morning, but
otherwise ptype remains rain with a higher probability existing with
northward extent. shallow mixed layer within this environment, but
sufficient to engage the elevated wind field just off the surface
and support some gustiness into the 30 to 35 mph range. some spotty
shower activity plausible early tonight, as moisture depth improves
within an initial period of weak cold air advection tied the
eastward ejecting clipper.

focus shifts to the inbound arctic front set to track across the
area between 09z and 15z wednesday morning. increasing snow shower
potential from north to south during this time, with a peak in
forcing along the advancing convergence axis drawing upon steepening
lapse rates and supportive moisture depth. secondary window for snow
shower development wednesday afternoon tied to the southward
ejecting mid level circulation. moisture quality lacks overall given
the arctic origin, but favorable microphysics will exist for a time
as the moist layer takes residence at a deeper layer within the dgz
and the magnitude of the advective process removes stability
concerns. forecast maintains general accumulation potential from a
dusting to around an inch most locations through the afternoon.
steady column drying as the arctic plume takes greater influence
will favor drier conditions by evening. eastern thumb the exception,
as cold north-northwest flow over the long lake huron fetch elicits
a lake response with a concerted focus along the lake aggregate
trough. the overall scale, vigor and longevity of activity carries
greater uncertainty owing to sensitivity to proper projection of
wind trajectory and influence of the drying arctic profile with
time. eastern huron county most susceptible to persistent,
potentially higher intensity lake bands, yielding a smaller
footprint of variable accumulation amounts perhaps in excess of 3
inches near the shoreline by early thursday morning. the downward
spiral in temperatures means sub-zero wind chill most locations by
thursday morning.

arctic cold with dry conditions in deep northwest flow thursday.
temperatures briefly moderate friday as the first in series of
clipper systems lifts through the region. combination of warm air
advection and dcva with the passing wave brings a high likelihood of
snow with some accumulation throughout the friday period. trailing
shortwave energy will work to carve out a broader mid level trough
for the upcoming weekend. this pattern will remain conducive to
periodic snowfall chances. another intrusion of arctic air fortifies
a longer stretch of well below average temperatures lasting into
early next week.

marine...

south-southwesterly gradient winds increase again today with the
approach of the next low pressure system into ontario. a new set of
small craft advisories were issued though the evening hours. 35-50
knot flow moves into the lowest 3 kft, but gusts should be held in-
check by marginally sufficient lower column stability. still, cannot
rule out a few isolated gale-force gusts this afternoon, mainly over
the southern half of lake huron. the low ejects into quebec by
wednesday morning which forces a rather potent cold front across the
central great lakes. potential exists for brief marginal post-
frontal gales on wednesday with the ensuing cold advection, but
since the low-level wind field should be weakened and displaced
further south, no gale watch was issued. extensions and/or
additional small craft advisories will likely be required wednesday.
winds speeds steadily decrease thursday with a passing surface ridge
axis, then flip southerly by friday ahead of the next clipper
system.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lhz442-443.

small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am est wednesday
for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...mr
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.