Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
818
fxus61 kcle 121050
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
650 am edt sun jul 12 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) extended period of dry weather and above average temperatures
expected through thursday.

2) precipitation chances increase friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the stationary boundary over the ohio valley will slowly exit to the
east throughout the day on sunday as high pressure builds into the
great lakes region. there may be an isolated shower or two, primarily
across eastern ohio as a surface trough lingers across the region,
but the majority of the area will remain dry. a strong upper level
ridge will build across the central plains that will support the
aforementioned high pressure. this high will settle across the
western portion of the great lakes early in the week and slowly
build east throughout the week. temperatures will increase as a
result, with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s by the middle of
the week. though, given the west to northwesterly flow over the
region, temperatures may stay a few degrees cooler with greater
confidence in this across the eastern portion of the cwa. dew points
will be in the mid to upper 60s with heat indices rising into the
mid to upper 90s with some elevated heat risk across the region from
tuesday through thursday. friday has lower confidence in heat risk
as the upper level trough across eastern canada pushes further south
into eastern conus. will continue to monitor trends and impacts to
any heat related risks.

key message 2...
an upper level trough across eastern canada will begin to move south
into eastern conus on friday bringing possible unsettled weather
back to the region. there`s still quite a bit of spread on the
global models with timing and amplitude of this trough, so
confidence is fairly low in any details currently. though, the
overall pattern suggests precipitation chances increasing into the
weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the taf period. afternoon
cumulus clouds are expected today with isolated rain showers
18-23z near kmfd, kcak, and kyng.

winds around 5 knots early this morning increase to 8 to 12
knots this afternoon with a few gusts to 20 knots. light and
variable winds expected tonight.

outlook...vfr expected.

&&

.marine...
a beach hazard statement has been issued for the erie, lorain,
and cuyahoga counties from 2 pm to 9 pm today. a small craft
advisory has also been issued for the associated lake erie
waters. northeast winds around 15 to 20 knots will produce waves
of 3 to 5 ft, producing hazardous conditions for small craft,
and dangerous conditions for swimmers. swimmers should remain
out of the water.

high pressure over the great lakes region today will gradually
drift southward to the ohio valley by tuesday, where it will
remain as it slowly dissipates through wednesday. quiet weather
conditions are expected on lake erie as southwest winds persist
through at least tuesday before turning westerly tuesday night
into wednesday. waves will be 1 foot or less, with 2 ft waves
possible tuesday night into wednesday when winds turn westerly.

a cold front crosses the lake wednesday evening, followed by
northerly flow developing behind the front wednesday night.
right now, waves are forecast to be less than 2 ft, but this
period is worth monitoring due to the onshore flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
this evening for ohz009>011.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 9 pm edt this
evening for lez144>146.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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031
fxus63 kiwx 121004
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
604 am edt sun jul 12 2026

.key messages...

- dry and trending warmer through the middle of the week.

- highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s by tuesday and wednesday,
with peak afternoon heat indices up near 100 degrees.

- low chances (20-30%) for showers and storms return late this
week into next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 am edt sun jul 12 2026

building heat and humidity the story through midweek as an expansive
595-600 dam 5h ridge over the intermountain west and high plains
folds east into the great lakes by tuesday and wednesday. this will
continue to force the oh valley frontal zone south with sfc high
pressure generally in control with plentiful sunshine and dry
conditions.

the peak of this next shot of mid summer heat looks to be tuesday
into wednesday as the upper level ridge folds in. the positioning of
this feature should generally keep deeper gulf moisture off to the
west which could allow for pm sfc dewpoints to mixout more into mid-
upper 60s, keeping peak pm heat indices just below advisory criteria
(100f). this may be offset however with higher 70f plus dewpoints
possible given the climatological peak of evapotranspiration and the
potential for more limited mixing depths under the ridge axis.
regardless of how exactly this plays out it will be hot/humid with
peak pm heat indices somewhere in the mid 90s to near 100f.

a model consensus continues to favor a trend toward a more active
northwest flow regime thursday through next weekend. this
eventually puts the local area in a favored corridor for convective
complexes as an oscillating theta-e gradient lays out from the upper
midwest into the western/southern great lakes with at least
low daily chances (20-30%) for a round or two of convection.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 604 am edt sun jul 12 2026

vfr/dry through the period with northeasterly winds generally
5-10 knots as ridging continues to build in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 121008
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
608 am edt sun jul 12 2026

.key messages...

- dry and near-normal temperatures today.

- above normal temperatures (90+) starting tomorrow.

- shower and thunderstorm chances increase thursday onwards.

&&

.aviation...

there is some patchy shallow ground fog evident at a few observation
sites across southeast michigan this morning. so far no terminals
have been impacted and now that the sun has started to rise, the
risk of additional develop is very low. thus, vfr conditions are
expected to prevail over the next 24+ hours. east-northeast flow
will also prevail again today, then winds becomes more variable
tonight as high pressure drifts south across the area. through
monday, winds will gradually take on more of a component from the
west.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 248 am edt sun jul 12 2026

discussion...

the early to mid-week period will feature an extended period of dry
weather along with increasing temperature trends that will yield
well above normal readings.

for today, a strong region of surface high pressure will hold across
michigan, producing mostly sunny skies with temperatures peaking in
the mid 80s. the strong heat dome anchored over the intermountain
west and rockies will fold into the midwest and great lakes tomorrow
into tuesday as a series of mid-level waves traverses the central
and southern canadian provinces. this will greatly enhance
subsidence as an anomalously warm thermal ridge builds overhead.
highs at or above 90 become likely as early as tomorrow, initially
favoring the interior of northern michigan and south into the tri-
cities where the core of the low-level warmth initially arrives.
tuesday looks to be the peak of the heat with 850 mb temperatures
approaching 24c over central lower michigan by 18z, around the
99.5th percentile of climatology, and closer to 22c over metro
detroit. guidance continues to highlight the hottest potential in
the saginaw valley due to the lower terrain coupled with the weak
downsloping southwest flow. latest nbm guidance paints the potential
for some isolated 100 degree readings in this corridor (along with
the urban metro corridor). while triple digit heat remains a
climatologically rare outcome for se mi and confidence in this
specific number is low, the overall signal supports widespread mid
to upper 90s across the cwa. warm overnight lows holding in the upper
60s to lower 70s are also expected tuesday and wednesday morning.

a very modest step down follows wednesday as the thermal ridge
pivots slightly south with 850 mb temperatures of 18-20c holding
from port huron to mi/oh border, and slightly lowered values holding
north. this will still bring the potential for temperatures aoa 90
degrees for a high, most favorable outside of the thumb region.
heights will slowly erode thursday into friday as the flow aloft
takes on a more northwest to southeast orientation, increasing
potential for upstream convection and/or associated cloud debris to
progress into se mi late thursday through friday. this will likely
temper temperatures, especially with any precipitation. lower end
chances for unsettled weather continue into the weekend.

marine...

broad area of high pressure will continue to allow for quiet marine
conditions through the weekend. this high pressure will gradually
strengthen going through sunday. lighter northeast winds will
continue to variable as the high passes overhead.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....ja
discussion...am
marine.......ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.