Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
644
fxus61 kcle 201950
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
350 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

.what has changed...
the forecast has trended rainier for tonight into the first half of
monday. there is potential for localized flooding during this time,
best chance in the southern reaches of the cwa.

&&

.key messages...
1) additional rain is likely tonight into early monday. rain may be
heavy at times and could lead to localized flooding, particularly in
the southern part of the area.

2) a first taste of fall arrives this week with cooler
temperatures periodic rain chances, especially on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
after a brief break in showers his afternoon, another round of
rain will move into the area this evening through tonight as a
shortwave moves east along a slow-moving frontal boundary. by
the time rain moves into the area, the boundary will likely be
hugging the cwa border or be just to the south, which will make
the rainfall forecast somewhat tricky. the heaviest rainfall
will likely occur to the south/southwest of the local area,
although there is potential that heavy rain clips the southern
fringe of the cwa (mainly south of the us-30 corridor).
additional rain accumulation of around an inch (maybe locally
higher amounts) is possible in southern zones if the frontal
boundary ends up being a bit farther north than currently
expected. if heavy rainfall materializes in the local area,
there may be localized flooding in low-lying and poor drainage
areas, especially in locations that see prolonged periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. will need to keep an eye on radar
and hi-res guidance trends and make adjustments to the forecast
is needed. opted to hold off on a flood watch due to low
confidence in the placement of the heaviest rainfall and the
greatest risk of flooding.

rain chances will remain relatively higher through monday
morning with shower activity becoming more isolated monday
afternoon and evening.

key message 2...
by tuesday, canadian high pressure will shift into the region,
allowing temperatures to decrease for the majority of the week.
highs will be in the 60s monday through friday with overnight
lows in the 50s expected. friday will likely be in the chilliest
night of the week with forecast lows in the 40s at inland
locations. while periodic and scattered showers are possible
through thursday, pops will peak on wednesday as an upper trough
pushes east across the midwest. dry weather will return by
friday and continue into next weekend.

it will be quite breezy on monday and tuesday due to a tight
pressure gradient over the region as high pressure builds in
from the north and low pressure passes across the ohio valley.
northeast wind gusts of around 30 mph are expected across nw oh
with locally higher gusts to 35 mph possible along the lakeshore
of nw oh.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
low ceilings will be the main aviation challenge the rest of
today into monday, along with periods of light to moderate rain
showers. current cigs range from mvfr to ifr across the region,
with some mvfr visibilities where rain is falling at kcle,
kcak, and kyng. expect the steadiest rain to exit ne ohio and
nw pa by 22z, with mainly just scattered showers, mist, and mvfr
cigs late this afternoon and early evening. the next round of
steadier rain will start to move into nw ohio impacting ktol and
kfdy after 22z with continued mvfr to ifr conditions, but
expect this round to slide more to the south, so have steadier
rain moving into kcle, kmfd, kcak, and kyng later this evening
into the overnight, with keri staying drier. visibilities will
drop to at least mvfr in the steadiest rain in addition to the
low cigs. once this batch of rain departs, scattered showers
and continued low cigs will continue monday morning, especially
along a kfdy to kyng line.

n to ne winds will gradually increase to 5-10 knots this
afternoon and evening, then further increase to 10-20 knots
overnight. gusts of 20-25 knots are expected late tonight and
monday morning, especially near lake erie.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through thursday.

&&

.marine...
hazardous conditions are expected on lake erie through the first
half of the week. northeast winds will increase throughout this
evening as a cold front pushes south of lake erie and canadian
high pressure begins to build in from the north. small craft
advisories and beach hazards statements begin in the western
basin at 00z/8 pm with headlines spreading east across the lake
overnight and into monday morning. expect winds to peak at
around 25 knots monday morning through late tuesday night
possibly through as late as wednesday morning. winds may
periodically approach 30 knots, primarily in the open waters.
winds will slowly diminish wednesday night into thursday,
although persistent easterly flow 15 to 20 knots may require an
extension of headlines in the western nearshore zones into
thursday. east winds should diminish below 15 knots by late
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 8 pm edt this evening through
wednesday evening for ohz003-007-009>011.
beach hazards statement from 2 am edt monday through wednesday
evening for ohz012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from monday morning through wednesday
evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 pm edt
wednesday for lez142>146.
small craft advisory from 2 am monday to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez147-148.
small craft advisory from 8 am monday to 8 pm edt tuesday for
lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...garuckas
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
006
fxus63 kiwx 202010
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
410 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

.key messages...

- a flash flood watch is in effect from portions of northern
indiana and northwest ohio through late tonight. 1-2 inches of
rain is possible along and south of us-30. areas further south
that received excessive rainfall this past week could see an
exacerbation to any lingering flooding. isolated thunderstorms
are possible.

- light rain chances continue through monday afternoon,
dwindling towards the evening. cooler and trending drier
through the week, with highs in the 60s, low 70s and lows in
the upper 40s and low-mid 50s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 409 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

opted to extend the flash flood watch until 2 am edt for areas
further south and east given expected rainfall through late tonight-
which is where most of the rain has fallen over the past week and
impacts linger. additional totals of 1-2" are possible through
monday morning as a shortwave or two move through, which could
exacerbate any flooding in these areas. much of the high res
develops heavier rainfall within some more convective elements this
evening, however as of this writing we are pretty meager in terms of
heavy rain. expect a period of isentropic ascent to continue through
at least the evening as a low pressure system develops along the
stationary front with this first shortwave. still have decent warm
cloud depth, pwats around 2" and a llj of around 25-30 knots, so
heavy rain is still a possibility. thunderstorms are also possible.

otherwise, expect a drying trend late monday into the rest of the
week, with mainly intermittent low chances (20-30%) as we sit on the
periphery of upper level ridge/upper low, with surface high pressure
below (particularly thursday into the weekend). it will be more fall
like, with highs in the 60s, low 70s and then lows falling into the
upper 40s, 50s. by the weekend, we warm up into the low-mid 70s
(warmest sun).

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 137 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

a low level confluence zone in advance of a southward sinking
boundary aided in showers/storms this morning across northern
indiana. a lull in greater rain shower developed late
morning/early afternoon but an advancing convectively enhanced
short wave from northern illinois is associated with another
area of rain that will overspread terminals this afternoon. the
instability gradient remains parked roughly along the us route
30 corridor, so cannot completely discount some scattered
convection and some thunder potential at kfwa for a time in the
20z-23z timeframe, but confidence in this scenario is somewhat
low. ifr cigs are expected at terminals through this evening
with eventual north to south improvement late evening into
monday morning as baroclinic zone sinks southward and low level
dry air advection overspreads southern great lakes. mvfr cigs
will likely persist into monday morning at kfwa however.
deepening northeast flow and some increase in mixed layer with
cold advection will support northeast gusts to around 20 knots
at times.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 2 am edt monday for inz017-018-023>027-
032>034.
oh...flood watch until 2 am edt monday for ohz015-024.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
461
fxus63 kdtx 202000
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
400 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

.key messages...

- periods of rain this morning, with lingering rain chances then
focused mainly south of i-96 this afternoon.

- seasonably cool conditions will persist into the middle of week.

- areas of showers are possible again tuesday night into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

showers continue to dissipate as expected from north to south as
drier air filters into the low levels. this process is the result of
split flow moving in aloft and 1028 mb surface high pressure
building out of central ontario. a wind shift/cold front is being
driven south by the strengthening anticyclone, and will eventually
steer gradient flow northeasterly. despite the influx of a drier
canadian air mass, stratocumulus clouds are expected to linger
overnight given the cold advection over lake huron. cooler again
tonight, with temperatures dipping into the 40s for some locations
further north.

readings hold below seasonal averages through the first half of the
week, with mainly dry conditions prevailing as the ridge influence
takes command. the exception will be closer to the ohio border where
a shortwave moves from the plains into the ohio valley, before
closing off and stalling. expect vicinity showers at times monday
though tuesday, although the rest of southeast michigan ought to
stay dry and breezy, particularly during the afternoon hours as the
ridge/subsidence wins out. thermal troughing maximizes across across
the midwest by wednesday with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the
mid (perhaps low) single digits (celsius). the nam shows that the
coldest air should filter across lake erie, setting up a north to
south thermal gradient over southeast lower, with portions of metro
detroit possibly seeing highs capped aob 60f.

the synoptic pattern should lock-up midweek as the closed mid/upper
low orients in rex block formation, immediately south of the ontario
anticyclonic wave. a southern stream wave will fold into the ohio
valley, and break the stationary waves late wednesday into thursday,
offering some potential for showers, more so for the southern half
of the forecast area. it will take some time before temperatures
begin to recover, as easterly lower column flow hangs on toward the
end of the workweek.

&&

.marine...

the central great lakes reside on the southern fringe of broad
northern ontario high pressure through the first half of this week.
the combination with a lingering stalled frontal boundary over the
ohio valley results in a respectable gradient across the region
maintaining moderate northeasterly winds through tuesday (gusting 20-
25kts with 30kts possible in the saginaw bay). waves rippling along
the frontal boundary could offer some sporadic shower chances over
the southern great lakes though influence of high pressure is
expected to keep most of the area dry. westward drift of high
pressure leads to a shift toward more easterly flow wednesday though
with little to no reduction in wind speeds. gales remain unlikely
though onshore flow warrants long duration small craft advisories
for all nearshore waters.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 151 pm edt sun sep 20 2026

aviation...

terminals reside in a very moist airmass with an approaching cold
front to the north and stationary boundary to the south. this is
bringing a mix of ceilings predominately in the mvfr to low vfr as a
area of ran showers continues to traverse lower michigan. activity
will hold south of fnt to start the taf period and gradually come to
an end across the south towards 22z, though showers chances likely to
remain very close to the southern metro terminals into the evening.
dry northeast wind will gradually help lift ceilings to mostly vfr
into the evening, though scattered lower clouds may stick around with
flow off the lake huron. winds remain northeasterly tomorrow morning
with increasing gustiness.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not anticipated through the
forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon, then low
tonight.

* low for ceilings to fall below 200 ft prior to 13z.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.