Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
644 pm edt sat sep 26 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) primarily dry, seasonal weather continues through tuesday as
high pressure remains situated across the great lakes.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to be situated across the northern great
lakes through early next week bringing dry and seasonal weather to
the region. there`s a strong low pressure currently off the east
coast that will stall over the next couple of days and slowly drift
to the west. this will briefly increase pop chances across nw pa lat
sunday evening into early monday morning when the low will weaken
and move off to the northeast. the next chance for widespread
precipitation will be mid to late week. there`s still plenty of
spread within the models with timing, so it`s difficult to pin point
when the onset will be. until then, pleasant seasonal weather will
be across the region with highs in the mid 60 to low 70s and
overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through thursday/...
vfr conditions are expected at most locations through the taf
period, although there may be a brief period of non-vfr
conditions in patchy fog and lower stratus across interior
north-central oh early sunday morning. kmfd has the best chance
of this occurring, but can`t rule out a brief period of non-vfr
conditions as far west as kfdy. mid to high-level clouds will
likely move into eastern terminals by sunday evening, although
any showers should stay to the east of the local taf sites.

winds will be out of the north at 10 knots or less tonight
before increasing to 6 to 12 knots during the day sunday.
periodic gusts to 20 knots are possible during peak mixing
sunday afternoon.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog are possible. non-vfr possible in
scattered showers on thursday.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie today will have northeast winds at 10-15
knots with waves 1-3 feet across the near shore. winds will increase
to 10-20 knots out of the northeast sunday into monday as low
pressure drifts westward from the east coast. waves will build to 2-
4 as well during this time period. winds and waves will subside to
less than 10 knots and less than 2 feet as high pressure takes back
control across the region on monday. winds will shift to be out of
the south late tuesday into wednesday and increase to around 10
knots. waves will build to 1-3 feet in the open waters with lower
waves expected in the near shore through the middle of the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
729 pm edt sat sep 26 2026

.key messages...

- cool and dry conditions persist through tuesday.

- rain chances return wednesday through friday.

- thunderstorms capable of heavy rain may be possible late next
week but confidence is low.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1147 am edt sat sep 26 2026

mid/upper level ridge holds firm over the upper great lakes for
several more days given blocking/deep upper lows over new england
and the southwest conus. associated surface high brings cool/dry
northerly flow that persists through monday. high temps remain in
the low/mid 70s with cool morning lows in the mid 40s. high clouds
possible at times (especially by tuesday) but overall skies remain
mostly sunny. some patchy fog remains possible tonight given mostly
clear skies and light winds. however, low level flow is backed a bit
more northerly tonight which will limit lake erie contribution that
supported fog/stratus in our se this morning. the same is true for
monday morning as well. will hold off on mentioning fog for now but
a patchy mention may need to be added.

pattern finally shifts by late tue as strong pacific upper jet moves
across canada and forces some progression in the aformentioned
features. new england upper low finally lifts, replaced by our
present ridge. this yields increasing sw flow/theta-e advection into
the upper midwest ahead of a positively-tilted midlevel trough and
(increasingly orphaned) surface front. this front brings our first
chance of rain by wed, though chances are not high given rapid loss
of midlevel support. this front stalls over our region as attention
turns to cutoff low that slowly meanders over the southwest conus
and eventually ejects into the southern plains. models continue to
struggle with how this overall pattern evolves and this leads to
considerable uncertainty regarding timing and location of any
rain/storms along the downstream warm front. therefore, no changes
to concensus initialization which has 30-60 pop`s for the entire
second half of the week. pattern recognition suggests some heavy
rain potential somewhere in the region but confidence is low
regarding whether or not it will be in our cwa.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 727 pm edt sat sep 26 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals through the period as
high pressure settles overhead. light and variable flow persists
overnight, then strengthening out of the north again sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
708 pm edt sat sep 26 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into tuesday.

- there is a chance of fog tonight and monday morning.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of next week.

&&

.aviation...

enhancement and deepening of subsidence along the periphery of the
northeast us closed low pressure will keep stable conditions over
southeast michigan throughout the period. center of surface high
pressure will be in place over portions of wisconsin and northern
lower michigan. this will keep enough of a northeasterly gradient to
allow for some surface based lake huron moisture to advect and pool
over the northern forecast area. surface condensation pressure
deficits suggests a fog potential sunday morning outside of the urban
heat island. mos guidance is now more supportive of low visibilities
at fnt overnight. maintained the lighter br in the tafs for the
northern sites. any fog looks to burn off late sunday morning with a
very dry sub 5.0 kft agl layer in place across the region.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the
forecast period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 pm edt sat sep 26 2026

discussion...

the persistence of deep layer subsidence will hold across lower mi
into tuesday under a blocked long wave pattern across eastern north
america. while some retrogression of the upper low over the mid
atlantic will drive a few high clouds toward eastern mi from time to
time, ample sunshine will prevail. forecast mixing depths on model
soundings and probabilistic guidance supports daytime highs generally
ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s sunday through at least
tuesday. there will be slight increase in the north-northeasterly
gradient flow across lake huron tonight into sunday as the mid
atlantic system tightens the gradient over the lower great lakes.
this will advect a little higher lake huron moisture into the
boundary layer, raising the prospects for fog development both
tonight and sunday night. recent hrrr runs are quite bullish in
suggesting fog development over a large portions of the northern
forecast area. modified richardson numbers do suggest some weak
boundary layer stability despite increasing low level winds, enough
to warrant a mention of fog in the north both tonight and sun night.

the blocking pattern is forecast to break down tues into wed
allowing a northern stream trough to slide across the northern great
lakes. model variability in the amplitude of this wave and the
degree to which it breaks down the ridging across the eastern lakes
on wednesday raises a good deal of uncertainty as to the efficiency
with which it drives moisture into se mi. this uncertainty warrants just
chance type pops the middle of next week. it does appear the
eventual breakdown of the ridge will allow a west to east oriented
low to mid level baroclinic zone to settle across the great lakes
and/or ohio valley. there is good agreement within the model prob
space in phasing the remnant tropical system from the pacific and a
southern stream wave, which drive a tropical moisture plume into the
southern and central plains by wednesday. although deterministic
model solutions indicate a weakening of this southern stream wave as
it lifts into the upper midwest/great lakes toward the end of the
forecast period, the tropical moisture plume intersecting the
aforementioned frontal boundary draped across the great lakes suggest
the potential for ample rainfall to parts of the region, warranting
a chance of rain during the end of the work week.

marine...

high pressure now situated over the great lakes will hold through
tuesday. some periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be
possible across southern lake huron today and tomorrow, but
otherwise, wind gust potential to or below 15 knots is expected for
most locations. wind direction will mainly hold from the north to
northeast with high pressure in place.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sc
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.