Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
345 am est thu nov 5 2026

.what has changed...
there are no significant or impactful forecast changes with this
update.

&&

.key messages...
1) turning seasonably cooler and breezy today through this
weekend with lake effect cloudiness and scattered rain showers
lingering through saturday night.

2) milder than average temperatures and fair weather conditions
will return sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the overall weather pattern today through the weekend will be
driven by a sharp upper level trough digging across the great
lakes region. the first of two cold fronts is currently moving
through the area this morning with not much fanfare in our
weather. there is a broken line of rain showers along this front
that will continue to track eastward through sunrise this
morning. our recent very mild temperatures will be knocked down
closer to average today into friday. the second and stronger
cold front will sweep southward across the region friday,
bringing a quick shot of colder weather for the weekend. with
the colder air moving over the very mild great lakes will also
bring lake effect cloudiness and scattered lake effect rain
showers friday through saturday night. it will be a reality
check from our recent stretch of very mild and quiet weather
that we have enjoyed since early october.

we have likely already reached our max temperatures for this 24
hour day before this cold frontal passage. temperatures will
generally hold steady or a slow fall later today staying in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. winds will remain breezy from
the south to southwest today 10 to 20 mph. cooler temperatures
move back in overnight falling into the 40s with cloudy skies.
mainly dry weather for most of the overnight but pops increase
towards the predawn hours as the secondary and stronger cold
front starts to move into the region. that cold front will sweep
across the area quickly friday morning followed by a colder
shot of air friday through this weekend. the sharp upper level
trough will dig over the great lakes friday into saturday which
will bring a more typical fall weather setup that we associate
with lake effect clouds as well as scattered rain showers
downwind of the lakes. one note worthy weather stat to mention
is the current lake erie water temperature is in the low 60s.
that current water temp is running about 8 to 10 degrees above
normal for early november. high temps will generally be in the
50s friday afternoon and this weekend. some locations in the
snowbelt region may struggle to get out of the 40s on saturday.
it will also be blustery friday through saturday night which
will also make it feel colder adding a bit of a wind chill
factor. overall, rainfall amounts from the cold front friday and
scattered lake effect rain showers through saturday night will
be on the light side, around a tenth to maybe a couple tenths in
the snowbelt of neoh and nwpa.

key message 2...
there is some better weather retuning in the forecast sunday
through early or middle of next week. high pressure will build
back across the ohio valley starting sunday and continue to
dominate our weather pattern through maybe wednesday. more
seasonable and fair weather conditions will return for our area
to end the weekend and early next week. temperatures will slowly
climb back above average early next week, starting out with 50s
for afternoon highs sunday but 60s come back in the forecast by
early next week. some bigger weather changes may be on the far
horizon or just beyond our 7 day forecast period. model
guidance is starting to indicate that stronger weather system
may develop over the great lakes region by the end of next week
with a bigger push of colder weather and lake effect precip.
stay tuned!

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
the main message for aviation weather impacts with this taf
update across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania will be
mvfr to vfr ceilings during the next 24 hours. there is a weak
cold front that is moving from west to east across the area this
morning. there is a broken band of showers with this front
which could bring a brief period of lower mvfr visibility in
any steadier precip through 10z this morning, mainly for taf
sites in far neoh and nwpa. otherwise ceilings will be broken to
overcast between 2500 and 3500 or higher for most of this taf
period. winds will be breezy 8 to 15 from the south and
southwest this morning through late this afternoon. the winds
will be higher between 12 and 15 knots between 15z and 00z later
today. occasional gusts between 20 and 25 knots will be
expected late this morning through early evening. winds will
relax after sunset this morning, less than 10 knots.


outlook...non-vfr likely with a cold front followed by
scattered lake effect clouds and rain showers friday through
saturday night.

&&

.marine...
southwesterly flow over lake erie will increase later this
morning through the early evening 15 to 25 knots and waves away
from the immediate lakeshore 2 to 5 feet. small craft advisories
will go into effect later this morning through the early
evening. winds will decrease 10 to 15 knots from the west-
southwest tonight. a stronger cold front will sweep across the
lake friday morning followed by northwest flow 20 to 25 knots
and higher waves friday through saturday evening. additional
headlines will be needed for friday through saturday evening.

winds will gradually decrease saturday night and sunday with
high pressure building back into region. there may be a brief
uptick in westerly winds sunday night into monday with a low
pressure system passing by north of the great lakes. a more
active and typical late fall weather pattern may develop later
next week with rough conditions on the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm est this
afternoon for lez142>145.
small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
204 am est thu nov 5 2026

.key messages...

- patchy drizzle and showers at times, especially this
afternoon. not as warm with highs only in the 50s.

- lake effect rain tonight through friday, tapering off
saturday morning.

- seasonably cold this weekend with highs in the 50s. cold
sunday morning with lows near freezing.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 203 am est thu nov 5 2026

a 996mb low swirls over the up this morning (bringing much needed
rain to a drought-striken area), with a secondary shortwave trough
aloft digging into extreme eastern iowa. this has spawned a fairly
widespread area of rain and drizzle upstream. this feature is
still digging south-southeast this hour but is expected to lift
northeast this afternoon. as it does so, scattered showers will
move through for the afternoon. remaining somewhat breezy once
more with a modest pressure gradient still in play. temperatures
only in the 50s today with only modest cold air advection noted
aloft due to boundary- parallel flow. however, a strong push of
caa rushes in this evening/tonight as the primary trough axis
(digging in through minnesota this morning) sweeps through. this
caa and lift promotes widespread showers followed by lake
effect rain showers. if you`re a snow lover, this is truly a
waste of what would otherwise be an impressive lake effect snow
set up. high resolution cams suggest qpf through the event
of 0.30-0.50". equilibrium levels crest at nearly 9,000 ft,
indicative of excellent lake induced lift. a single band of
rain is anticipated late thursday night through friday night
that follows the eastern shore and wavers over la porte and
western st. joseph (in) counties. lake effect comes to and end
saturday morning as equilibrium levels fall in response to
rising heights aloft with the parent trough moving off.

compared to recent temperatures, very cold early sunday morning in
the wake of this system as skies clear and high pressure descends
over the great lakes. lows will be near freezing which is just shy
of normal: 35 degrees. over the course of next week, a classic sine
wave pattern takes shape at 500mb with a towering central us
ridge bookended by troughs. we`ll be on the edge of seasonably
cool northwest flow. if northwest flow wins out, we could see
episodes of light rain (though pacific moisture transport is
poor). alternatively, mild and dry conditions could prevail if
the ridge to our west shifts east late in the week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1228 am est thu nov 5 2026

in the wake of the cold front passage yesterday we will continue
to see mainly mvfr cigs with a few lower clouds and
sprinkles/drizzle at times through the overnight hours. some
drier air does begin to push into the region by late morning
and early afternoon which will allow for some improvement to
cigs but look to remain mvfr ahead of the next disturbance that
moves through from the northwest and spread southeast later
tonight after 20z thu. westerly winds will back to more
northerly through the taf period with gusts around 20kts
expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
330 am est thu nov 5 2026

.key messages...

- briefly drier to start today before scattered showers return late
today and persist into friday.

- temperatures will feel much cooler as highs return to average for
early november.

- drier weather and above normal temperatures favored for the first
part of next week.

&&

.discussion...

se mi resides under the dry slot of northern great lakes low
pressure to start the day limiting any precip to isolated pockets of
drizzle. this gradually begins to change through the latter half of
the morning mainly towards the saginaw valley/thumb as southwesterly
winds draw in moisture off lake michigan supporting widely scattered
light showers. chances expand over the southern portions of the cwa
late this afternoon as a lobe of vorticity rounds the trough over
the area providing a bit more lift to squeeze out scattered light
showers which then persist into early tonight. system`s secondary
cold front sweeps across the region early friday morning offering a
window for better coverage before ushering in a true late fall
airmass to close the week out.

850mb temps fall sub 0c behind the front as troughing sinks over the
central great lakes capping highs slightly below average in the 40s
to 50 friday. the now closed low likewise sinks southeast over lower
mi friday generating a generally unsettled day with periodic showers
and breezy northwesterly winds making it feel even cooler than the
highs would suggest. greatest shower coverage/intensity likely
focused over the thumb as the low center tracks nearby wrapping in
additional lake moisture. rain chances gradually winds down over the
course of friday night as troughing shifts towards the eastern great
lakes.

temperatures remain around early november averages saturday though
will feel cool given the fall thus far. cloud cover slowly erodes
through the day as surface high pressure/drier air slowly expands
over the region. ridging then expected to govern conditions through
the first half of the new week promoting another drier stretch and
moderation back above normal temperature-wise.

&&

.marine...

the occluded low pressure system continues to stretch and drift
northeast into ontario and quebec this morning. the initial cold
front has pulled through the region but the lingering stacked upper
level and surface troughs will remain draped across the region
today. this will keep a southwesterly gradient across the area and
continued gusty winds. deeper mixing in the wake of the cold front
brings southwest wind gusts to around 25 kt across saginaw bay
thursday so a small craft advisory is in effect through this
evening. a stronger cold front then tracks southward across the
region on friday. this brings gusty north and northeast wind that
shifts northwest and weakens by saturday. additional light rain will
accompany this frontal passage.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1156 pm est wed nov 4 2026

aviation...

upper level trough of low pressure will now be in place over
southeast michigan throughout the period. deepening of the cold air
with time in the lower troposphere will lift ceilings heights to
vfr. strong midlevel subsidence between 5.0 and 15.0 kft agl will
end widespread precipitation wrap around moisture advection with
daytime heating is expected to result in diurnal shower development
thursday afternoon. most organized of synoptic moisture appears to
pivot into the area thursday evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and thursday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......drk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.