Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1225 am edt mon oct 5 2026

...06z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly seasonable and dry weather is expected through this week.
patchy frost is possible monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will move east through the area later today which
may bring a brief window for rain chances this evening and
overnight, mainly across far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. total rainfall amounts are expected to be light
with only up to a few hundredths possible. behind this front, an
area of high pressure will build south into the region,
ushering in cooler and drier air. will continue to monitor
temperature trends for frost potential monday night into tuesday
with high pressure directly overhead. however, guidance has
remained fairly consistent with low temperature magnitude (upper
30s) which, in conjunction with scattered cloud cover, could
limit the overall frost threat. meanwhile, the frost potential
continues to decrease for tuesday night into wednesday morning
as guidance is favoring a faster onset of warm air advection
from the west.

another weak cold front may cross the area by the end of the week,
though the latest guidance suggests a mainly dry frontal passage
with ample mid-level dry air in place. gusty southwest winds of 20
to 25 mph are possible ahead of the front wednesday afternoon.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions will continue for the rest of this overnight
through monday evening. winds will become westerly to
northwesterly 5 to 12 knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots for
cle, cak, yng and eri during the late morning and afternoon
hours. winds will relax to 6 knots or less by this evening.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected most of this week.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will return across the central and eastern
basins of lake erie tonight into monday as a cold front ushers in
north to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots. marine conditions will
improve on tuesday as winds become light and variable with high
pressure overhead. a period of stronger offshore south to southwest
flow will develop ahead of another cold front on wednesday, 15 to 25
knots. a small craft advisory is possible, though the higher winds
and waves are favored in the open waters. winds will shift to the
west behind the front on thursday, 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez144-
145.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...77
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
202 am edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- primarily dry conditions are expected through this work week.

- after starting out with slightly below normal high temps,
highs slightly above normal take over for the end of the work
week.

- cold tuesday morning with lows dipping down to the 30s for
some areas north of us-6.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 128 pm edt sun oct 4 2026

behind this morning`s cold front, a reinforcing shot of cool air
moves in. that allows today`s highs in the 70s, generally south of
us-6, to drop back into the 60s everywhere for monday. when we get
the better frost scenarios, it`s usually on the heels of a
temperature upswing like happens as we head into midweek this week.
i usually like to see at least 3 hours of 36 to 38f temperatures
with light to calm winds and minimal cloud cover to get a good setup
for frost. however, it appears that warm advection moves in monday
night and this sets up the chance for mid to upper cloudiness at
least in areas west of in-15 (if you continued it into mi) and north
of us-6. nam bufkit soundings appear to indicate some decoupling,
but those mid to upper 30s for a few hours may still be hard to come
by. the nasa sport lis actually shows less than 30 percent 0-100 cm
soil moisture percentile up in st joseph to hillsdale and lagrange
to fulton oh counties, but we`ve added rain to that area in the last
week or so and this may make radiational cooling not entirely as
efficient as may be needed. this combination of factors would still
point to areas north of the toll road having the best chance for
frost, but think more patchy frost as opposed to widespread and this
may be relegated to outlying areas. high temperatures stay in the
upper 60s to upper 70s the rest of the forecast period.

aside from that, dry weather continues. a dry cold front washes out
and stalls nearby wednesday into thursday time period before pushing
back northeastward friday into saturday. the ecmwf has rain in the
vicinity of our area thursday night, but its moisture column
looks rather dry overhead. the next chance for rain could come
as early as saturday night, but may wait until sunday/sunday
night. this is as a deep cutoff low makes its way northward from
the south/southwest bringing moisture with it. it has times of
large scale ascent that may be able to squeeze moisture out, but
little instability.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 201 am edt mon oct 5 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1236 am edt mon oct 5 2026

.key messages...

- below normal temperatures arrive monday with highs only near 60
and lows falling into the 30s. chance for frost is possible monday
night particularly over the saginaw valley/thumb.

- more seasonably average temperatures return for the midweek period
with little to no rain chances.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through this taf period. the post
frontal cooler northwest flow has brought mostly clear skies tonight
with only few clouds streaming across michigan through the early
morning hours. continued northwest flow will supply lake moisture
that may support some scattered vfr clouds again by this afternoon.
the cooler airmass will also support some afternoon gusts up to 20
knots by the early afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 251 pm edt sun oct 4 2026

discussion...

surface cold front finishes crossing lower mi this evening with only
a low chance for an isolated brief shower as primary moisture axis
has shifted over the eastern great lakes. post-frontal cold
advection in place through the night into monday as upper troughing
settles over the eastern half of the great lakes. core of the
coolest air arrives monday keeping tonight`s lows in the upper 30-
lower 40 range precluding a risk of frost. local 850mb temps fall
towards 0c by midday monday capping high temps around 60 despite
building high pressure promoting mostly sunny skies. said high
drifts directly overhead by monday night leading to calm or near
calm winds under clear skies allowing temperatures outside of the
urban centers to fall into the 30s. coldest temps expected across
the saginaw valley and thumb where mid 30s are likely offering
potential for areas of frost to develop by tuesday morning.

high pressure departs for the mid-atlantic daytime tuesday as broad
low pressure dives southeast across northern ontario setting up
south-southwest return flow across southern lower mi. low pressure
looks to track far enough north that se mi stays dry save for
perhaps a stray shower towards the tip of the thumb tuesday night.
with the area currently favored to reside on the southernmost fringe
of the james bay upper low, temperatures throughout the midweek
period would hold around the seasonal average, in the mid-upper 60s,
with wednesday making a run towards 70.

marine...

surface flow will turn to northwest this evening in the wake of a
weak cold front. across lake superior, gusts have increased to
occasional low-end gales at the end of fetch. given the parent
storm system track is well to the north, the best forcing of lengthy
low gale potential will be across lake superior, with lower chances
across the north arm of lake huron. as the cooler air deepens
through the straits out onto the main body of northern lake huron,
wind gusts will increase and approach entry level gales - with the
greatest potential tied to the more aggressive cloud growth
formations. current forecast package will continue with the gale
watch, offering some opportunity for stronger gusts to present
themselves upstream.

high pressure builds into the region on monday into tuesday -
flattening out the wind field for a day or so. southwest winds will
increase later tuesday with the approach of the next system across
the northern lakes region. small craft conditions are likely across
saginaw bay and possible down the southern huron shoreline.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......mann


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.