Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
676
fxus61 kcle 152001
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
401 pm edt wed apr 15 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains largely unchanged. there will be severe weather
potential across the area this afternoon/evening with all hazards
possible. additional rounds of severe weather possible thursday and
saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) severe weather potential across the region continues this
afternoon/evening with additional rounds possible thursday and
saturday.

2) multiple rounds of precipitation through thursday night will
bring flooding potential to the region. a flood watch remains in
effect for northwestern ohio.

3) temperatures remain above average through saturday evening with
cooler temperatures for sunday and monday. highest potential for
frost/freeze will be sunday night into monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
severe weather potential continues this afternoon into the evening
with additional rounds possible thursday and saturday as a boundary
wavers through the central great lakes through the early weekend.
see below for a breakdown for each day:

today: northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania continues to
destabilize this afternoon as ample moisture advects in from the
southwest. as this occurs, mlcape values will rise to 1000-1500 j/kg
this afternoon with low and mid-level lapse rates between 6.0-7.0
c/km. lapse rates of those values could inhibit some thunderstorm
potential. additionally, given the southwestern surface flow, there
will be decent low level and deep layer shear, especially across
northern ohio into pennsylvania, that will support organized
convection with all hazards possible to include damaging winds,
hail, and possibly a tornado or two. thunderstorms are currently
getting started across eastern indiana and western ohio early
afternoon along a boundary across that area. as this moves eastward
more into ohio, should expect to see a increase in coverage and
intensity. timing wise, the thunderstorms should enter in the
western portion of the cwa by 2-3pm and traverse across exiting into
pennsylvania by 8-9pm. another round of thunderstorms are possible
late tonight after midnight with support from a shortwave moving
through the region. though, severe potential associated with those
should be limited given the much lower instability and lapse rates.

thursday: another round of severe weather is possible on thursday as
an upper level low moves through the great lakes during the
afternoon. showers and thunderstorms will be in the area for the
majority of the day with scattered severe potential given the
continued southwesterly flow. the main threat will be in the evening
with damaging wind potential as a cold front sweeps through the
region. can`t rule out the possibility of a brief tornado or two
along and ahead of the line, though shear values will be better
during the morning to early afternoon out ahead of the best
instability. the severe weather potential should begin to diminish
around sunset and move out to the east.

saturday: the next round of severe potential will be during the
afternoon on saturday as a low pressure system moves across the
great lakes. a warm front will lift northward through the region
saturday morning with a cold front later in the evening. all modes
of severe weather are possible, though the main threat will be
damaging winds along the cold front as it moves through given the
strong low to mid level winds.

key message 2...
with plenty of moisture advection across the region through thursday
night, there will be potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with
the potential for flooding. precipitable water values will be around
1.0-2.0 inches that will support rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour in thunderstorms. with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to continue from late this evening through thursday
night, flow will become more parallel to the boundary situated north
of the area and support the potential for training storms. generally
expecting this to stay north of us route 30. through thursday night,
rainfall totals will be around 1-2 inches with the higher end
amounts closer to the lake shore. higher amounts will be possible in
thunderstorms as well. latest guidance has trended northeastern ohio
and northwestern pennsylvania to receive more rainfall, though this
will be dependent on where thunderstorms set up over the region so
confidence is lower in this.

key message 3...
temperatures through saturday evening will continue to be above
average. highs will be in the mid to upper 70s as we continue to see
southwesterly flow across the region. low pressure will move through
the great lakes on saturday sweeping a cold front through that will
usher in a much cooler air mass. temperatures will drop down to 5-10
degrees below average with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
overnight lows for sunday night into monday will be the coldest of
this stretch, dropping down into the lower 30s with some locations
possibly seeing upper 20s. given the growing season as begun across
ohio, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed sunday night with
a lower potential for monday night. temperatures will begin to
moderate on tuesday rising to around seasonally average.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
aloft, sw`erly to w`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
our region as a stronger disturbance moves e`ward and nears
lake michigan and vicinity by 18z/thurs. at the surface, our
region remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure
ridge. our regional surface winds should trend s`erly to sw`erly
around 10 to 15 knots through the taf period. these winds should
gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times, especially before 23z/wed
and after 14z/thurs. scattered to widespread low clouds are
expected through the taf period and any resulting ceilings
should be in the 2kft to 6kft agl range.

as of 17:30z/wed, lines and clusters of showers and thunderstorms
had developed just west of our region in northern in and far-nw oh.
these scattered showers/storms are expected to persist generally
e`ward through our region through ~02z/thurs and produce the
following: brief mvfr to ifr; brief and erratic surface wind gusts
up to 40 to 55 knots. some storms may also produce damaging hail.
behind these initial showers/storms, additional isolated showers and
storms with brief mvfr to lifr are possible the rest of this evening
into thurs morning amidst low-level moist isentropic ascent aloft,
but confidence remains very low that this additional convection will
occur. after ~14z/thurs, additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms may outpace the aforementioned stronger disturbance
aloft and impact locations as far east as roughly the longitude of
kcle by 18z/thurs. these storms should produce brief/erratic surface
wind gusts up to 40 knots and brief mvfr to lifr.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected thursday afternoon through thursday night and again on
saturday. additional periods of rain with non-vfr are expected
saturday night through sunday evening. this rain may mix with
or change to wet snow at times sunday morning and again sunday
evening.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains along the northwestern flank of a high
pressure ridge before a cold front sweeps se`ward across the
lake thursday night. behind the front, another ridge builds
from the northern great lakes through friday. ahead of the
cold front, winds trend s`erly to sw`erly around 5 to 15 knots
with waves of 3 feet or less. behind the front, winds veer to
w`erly to n`erly and ease to around 5 knots. accordingly, waves
subside to 1 foot or less by daybreak friday. on friday,
variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less
are expected. these winds should trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening due to lake breeze development.

during friday night through saturday morning, the ridge should
exit e`ward and allow a warm front to sweep n`ward across lake
erie. mainly e`erly to se`erly winds of about 5 to 15 knots
ahead of the warm front veer to s`erly and freshen to around 10
to 20 knots behind the front. waves of mainly 3 feet or less are
expected, but occasional 4 footers should occur in open u.s.
waters of the central basin based on forecast fetch. a strong
cold front should sweep e`ward across lake erie saturday evening
through saturday night and allow sw`erly winds around 10 to 20
knots to veer to w`erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots.
waves should build to as large as 3 to 7 feet and a small craft
advisory will likely be needed, especially east of the islands.

behind the cold front, a trough should linger over lake erie
through sunday night and be accompanied by w`erly to nw`erly
winds around 15 to 25 knots. waves as large as 3 to 7 feet
should persist. on monday, a ridge should build from the west
and be accompanied by winds becoming variable and easing to
around 5 to 10 knots. waves are forecast to subside to 2 feet or
less by sunset monday evening.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch through thursday morning for ohz003-006>009-018-
019.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
581
fxus63 kiwx 151800
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
200 pm edt wed apr 15 2026

.key messages...

- multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through thursday. strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon into tonight.

- a flood watch is in effect for the entire area through tonight
as additional rainfall may cause renewed flooding in some
areas.

- a brief break is expected thursday night into friday before a
stronger front arrives with more showers and thunderstorms.

- overall temperatures will remain above normal, with a dip to
near or slightly below normal sunday behind the cold front.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm edt wed apr 15 2026

while the overall severe threat is less for the next day or 2, the
potential for strong to possibly severe storms as well as heavy rain
will persist into thursday as the region remains on the warm side of
a persistent trough to the west. the discussion will focus mainly
through saturday before the pattern breaks for at least a short
time. a series of mcv`s and other weaker disturbances, remnant
outflow boundaries and a decent upper level trough, will all
aid in the development of multiple rounds of showers and storms
into thursday. greatest severe threat today appears to exist
where it has the past couple of days from ia/il area southwest
into ok and tx, but our area lies in a slight risk (2 out of 5)
for large hail and damaging winds. cloud cover and multiple
rounds of precip will likely limit more substantial instability,
but enough shear and cape will exist to bring a threat for stg-
svr storms.

the first round of showers/storms was moving northeast across
nw parts of the area. a small area of storms has been
intensifying with strong indications of hail and possibly gusty
winds. this will continue ene and pose a threat for severe
weather. swomcd #446 was just sent by spc discussing the
concerns through the remainder of the afternoon. cams generally
suggest another round towards 00z and again overnight as the
sfc low passes to our nw. severe threat could return again
towards evening with all modes of severe possible again, but
impacts of current storms could limit the concerns. on the
hydro side, most areas dodged the heavy rainfall last night (far
south and far north mainly), but with several rounds expected
through tonight, opted to expand the flood watch to the entire
area and expire at 12z thu. do not expect widespread flood
issues, but there will be swaths of heavier rainfall that could
impact small creeks, streams and low areas as well as eventually
cause rising river levels.

showers may linger into the start of thursday, but model trends seem
to suggest that the severe threat may shift more towards the east as
the area is likely convectively overturned and main upper level
support is exiting. spc dy2 reflects this with a marginal risk
across se half or so of the area and could see this possibly being
trimmed further in future outlooks.

in the wake of the trough and increasing upper level heights we
should get a break in precip thursday night into friday evening
before a stronger trough (entering the pacific nw) dives into the
plains and eventually makes it to the great lakes into sat. shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase with this, but overall timing
of the cold front now favors a less than ideal situation (late fri
night into early sat). this is reflected with the main severe threat
fri to our west and then the 15% severe prob mainly east on sat.
time to sort that out. colder air then arrives behind this front
with a brief return to 40s and 50s sunday then moderation back into
the 60s and 60s for the work week. rain chances appear limited at
this point, but another strong trough will be to the west that most
likely will bring precip chances back.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 119 pm edt wed apr 15 2026

mvfr vsbys cigs in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for
both sites mainly through 21z and again after 02z tonight.
convective activity will diminish towards daybreak with vfr
conditions then expected into thursday afternoon. southwesterly
winds will be around 10-15 kts with stronger gusts in
thunderstorm outflows. breezy southwest winds continue on
thursday with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch through thursday morning for inz005>009-012>015-
017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch through thursday morning for ohz001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
mi...flood watch through thursday morning for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
328
fxus63 kdtx 151959
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
359 pm edt wed apr 15 2026

.key messages...

-a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9 pm for lenawee and
monroe counties.

-a flood watch remains in effect through thursday night with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms; some rivers are expected to
reach/exceed flood stage.

-a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists this
afternoon and evening, with another more isolated threat on
thursday.

-conditions dry out briefly on friday before a strong cold front
brings rain and possible thunderstorms on saturday.

-turning windier and much colder sunday, with temperatures plunging
into the 40s; a few snowflakes are possible.

&&

.discussion...

an active stretch of convection continues this afternoon and evening
as the next round of thunderstorms move through southeast michigan.
the primary stalled frontal boundary remains hung-up over northern
lower michigan with dewpoints in the 40s, while downstate values are
much higher, mostly in the 60s. this warm/moist airmass holds while
a secondary, more subtle, convergence axis has become the area of
greater concern for additional convective development, positioned
from northern indiana into the southern ontario peninsula. forecast
soundings have hinted at some low-level cin as weak capping in the 3-
5 kft layer tries to emerge, but ci over southern monroe county
proved that some surface-based parcels are still able to capitalize
on potential instability. extensive cloud cover limits deeper cape
density, but fresh updrafts have managed to emerge along the
boundary.

a remnant mcv moving across the tri-state area at press time follows
a similar trajectory as it brushes southern lower, and should
maintain integrity given ambient shear and thetae convergence. a
slight risk remains outlooked for much of southeast michigan by spc,
but the emphasis will be on locations south of i-94 where
instability is maximized. strong gusts and large hail are the
anticipated severe hazards, but a weak tornado threat remains given
100+ m2/s2 of 0-1 km srh, and persistent rotation from the inbound
mcv (and vicinity storms). further north, expect scattered coverage
with a lesser concern for severe. slightly higher risk for a few
additional strong storms exists over the tri-cities and thumb region
this evening with the arrival of higher mucape bubble. mild again
tonight with lows only in the 60s.

more showers and thunderstorms develop overnight as the southern
stream jet positions atop the great lakes with several perturbations
rippling through. healthy 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 knots will be
available tonight, with some linearity in convective mode arising at
times. mixed signals exist regarding the prevalence of surface
mixing potential, or if a weak nocturnal inversion can hold to keep
convection more elevated. very minimal change noted in mid-level
temperature profiles tonight, but layer dewpoints/pwats should rise
supporting heavy rainfall rates, given increasing background
tendency for synoptic ascent. mid-level lapse rates remain below 6.5
c/km.

latest cams offer little clarity in timing a reprieve from
convection on thursday, therefore, early morning, late morning, and
afternoon convective potential exists. shortwave trough feature
embedded within the mean flow slides through aloft between 15z and
21z. this provides a boost in cva, leading to low-end severe
potential, limited by instability. shortwave ridging then slides in
friday with high confidence in a mainly dry day. amplified longwave
trough of eastern pacific origin reaches lower michigan friday
night, favoring anomalous warmth, convection, and breezy conditions.
the system forces a stark cold front through saturday sending 850 mb
temperatures crashing into the minus teens (celsius). a transition
to light snow showers is possible sunday morning with post-frontal
northwest flow and ensuing cold advection to close out the weekend.

&&

.marine...

active pattern remains firmly in place as additional scattered
areas of showers cross the region this evening. thunderstorm
potential is highest across the southern half of the area,
particularly over the southern great lakes where a few strong to
severe storms are possible (wind gusts in excess of 34kts being the
primary hazard though some large hail or an isolated waterspout are
possible). trough moves into the area by thursday maintaining
periodic rounds of showers/storms. system peels away from the region
by thursday night ushering in a brief period of high pressure friday
bringing lighter winds and dry conditions. broad low pressure
tracking through northern ontario will then drag a respectable cold
front through the great lakes daytime saturday generating yet
another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have the
potential to be severe. moderate to strong cold advection follows
for sunday with northwest winds peaking in the lower 30s. while a
couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential is lower
(<30%) at this time.

&&

.hydrology...

given antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet
spring, the flood watch remains in effect for all of southeast
michigan through thursday night. significant rises are expected on
regional waterways, with the tittabawassee, saginaw, cass, and
shiawassee rivers forecast reach/exceed flood stage.

multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through thursday evening. while broad-scale forecasted rainfall
totals today through thursday are generally around 1 inch, any
focused areas of convection could significantly over-perform. the
primary concern is for thunderstorms to train, leading to much higher
rainfall totals and a heightened risk for worse flooding. confidence
in the exact timing and placement of these heavier corridors remains
low tonight and thursday, but the overall environment remains highly
conducive to efficient rainfall rates. afternoon rainfall rates have
ranged between approximately 1 and 2 inches.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 108 pm edt wed apr 15 2026

aviation...

mild and moist conditions will maintain a supportive environment for
periodic bouts of showers and thunderstorms through thursday.
initial attention focused on an area of convection lifting northeast
across northern in. potential exists for thunderstorms to expand
across the region between 19z and 21z. mvfr to ifr conditions where
heavier rainfall materialize. while a lower coverage of convection
may yet emerge elsewhere into the evening, a more targeted period
for showers and thunderstorms appears focused between 02z and 08z.
forecast will maintain a conservative outlook given a mixed signal
on potential and possible coverage. prevailing vfr conditions
tonight outside of any periods of heavier convective activity.

dtw/d21 convection...potential for thunderstorms to lift through
between 19z and 22z. a secondary period may development within the
03z and 08z window, but confidence in occurrence remains much lower.


dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5000 ft through tonight.

* medium for thunderstorms this afternoon. low tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch through late thursday night for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
hydrology....kgk/sf
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.