Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
286
fxus61 kcle 230540
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
140 am edt fri oct 23 2026

.what has changed...
as temperatures quickly cool again tonight, the chance for
patchy dense fog will return, especially west of i-71, into
friday morning.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry conditions will persist into next week with the potential
for widespread frost and possibly some areas of freeze saturday
morning.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a dominant upper level ridge and associated strong surface high
will continue to influence the weather across the area into
early next week. dry conditions with seasonable temperatures
will keep the weather pleasant across the area. there is a
chance for patchy dense fog late tonight into friday morning and
some lingering moisture gets trapped in an inversion. the fog
potential should be isolated to areas west of i-71. in addition,
friday and saturday nights will see a widespread drop in
temperatures into the 30s for much of the area, possibly
touching the upper 20s at times. this will likely result in
widespread frost potential both nights with isolated areas of
freeze potential. both nights may need a frost/freeze headline,
but will wait for tomorrow to ensure trends in models persist.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
primarily vfr conditions expected through the taf period outside
of any patchy fog/low stratus that develops early this morning.
the primary area of ifr/lifr will be terminals in northwest
ohio before conditions return to vfr later this morning. calm
winds through this morning will eventually become east/northeast
at 5-10 knots by mid afternoon.

outlook...periods of overnight patchy dense fog may impact taf
sites through the weekend. otherwise, primarily vfr is
expected.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue to push east into the area, allowing
for north-northeast flow of 5-10 knots to persist through
friday. as high pressure shifts on saturday, winds will become
southeasterly at 5-10 knots through at least sunday before
gaining a more westerly component by monday. waves through the
entire period should remain 2 feet or less. overall, quiet
marine conditions are expected to persist with no headlines
expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...13
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
776
fxus63 kiwx 230533
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
133 am edt fri oct 23 2026

.key messages...

- areas of fog are possible north of us-30 this morning. some
locally dense fog may be possible in far nw ohio and southern
michigan.

- warm, dry and pleasant weather will continue well into next week
with highs around 70 and lows in the 40s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 am edt fri oct 23 2026

fog is the main forecast concern again this morning. light nne flow
off lake huron supporting widespread dense fog over parts of se mi
and continuing to expand sw with time. models split on exactly how
far sw this fog gets but there is a decent chance our ne counties
could get clipped. a few hrrr and rap runs have also indicated
additional fog development possible around kfwa and points se. low
forecast confidence precludes any proactive headline decisions for
now but will continue to monitor satellite/surface obs closely
through the early morning and issue advisories or sps`s as
necessary. otherwise, incredibly high amplitude/short wavelength
ridge continues to build over the great lakes through the weekend
with strong ava/subsidence maintaining high pressure across the
lower great lakes/northeast conus. surface winds slowly veer to a
more se and eventually s/sw direction tonight through the weekend.
that coupled with some increasing high clouds from upstream
trough/front should limit the fog threat for sat am though some
patchy fog can`t be ruled out for our eastern zones. high temps
likely reach the low 70s again today given sunny skies (outside of
morning fog/stratus) and deep mixing. leaned on the warmer and drier
side of guidance for today which gives afternoon rh values around 35
percent. this is not low enough for a substantive fire wx concern
(especially given very light wind) but imagine finer fuels are
starting to get pretty dry. similar story over the weekend. sunday`s
highs will be a little warmer given increasing sw flow/light waa but
dewpoints also creep up a bit as well. strong ridge holds firm over
the ohio valley this weekend as upstream surface front stalls and
washes out well to our nw. our next chance of rain doesn`t arrive
until next thu and even that is highly questionable as numerous
solutions show this front stalling to our nw as well. real rainfall
chances don`t arrive until around halloween but that is far enough
out that many things could still change. main story is that warm,
dry and pleasant fall weather will continue well into next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 130 am edt fri oct 23 2026

amplification of flow has led to maintenance of expansive low
level ridge axis from the great lakes to the ohio valley.
surface anticyclone will maintain its dominance across the
region as a result with a continued weak easterly low level flow
profiles. this easterly flow has been conducive for fog
development particularly downwind of the eastern great lakes.
higher res guidance continues to suggest far nw ohio and se
lower michigan at greatest risk of dense fog overnight, but will
need to watch for possibility of some patchy fog developing in
kfwa vicinity in the 09z to 14z timeframe. confidence remains
somewhat low for kfwa and will limit mention to tempo mvfr vsbys
with the 06z tafs. otherwise, vfr conditions and light winds
will continue through this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
924
fxus63 kdtx 230350
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1150 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

.key messages...

- the potential exists for dense fog development each of the
daybreak periods friday through monday. any fog that will develop is
expected to dissipate or lift by 10 am.

- mild and dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

steady expansion of very low stratus will continue across southeast
michigan during the early morning hours, as light northeast low
level flow draws better moisutre off lake huron into the area. a
rapid decline into lifr will occur with cigs hovering in the 300 to
400 ft range based on latest observational trends. expectation for
some lowering of this cloud base closer to daybreak, offering a
greater potential for some degree of fog formation as well.
potential does exist for a period of dense fog to develop, with
visibility below 1/4 mile. a gradual improvement in conditions late
morning as daytime heating works to lift and clear any lingering low
stratus and fog. vfr conditions with a limited diurnal cu production
for the remainder of friday.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm late tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 244 pm edt thu oct 22 2026

discussion...

an anomalous upper level ridge advancing into central sections of
far northern canada will open the door to the rapid amplification of
an omega block over the central contiguous united states for the end
of the work week. upper level high pressure will then stall out and
impact the forecast area through monday of next week. quite the
structure with h3 heights reaching 588 dam over portions of the
lower peninsula this weekend and +13c 850mb temperatures advecting
well into hudson bay. ideal mid autumn conditions with high
temperatures reaching the middle to upper 60s, 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, and lows falling into the 40s.

the only weather of significance the next few days will be br and fog
chances during the daybreak periods. a better setup for fog will be
friday morning with onshore flow advecting a marine airmass inland.
the relatively warm lakes will offer higher dewpoints that combined
with weak flow will provide for saturation potential. surface
condensation pressure deficits support fog beginning in the tip of
the thumb tonight before expanding southeastward through all of the
area. the fog potential for saturday morning looks to be the
greatest near lake erie before expanding westward. could see a
scenario where the detroit urban heat islands remain just warm
enough to dissuade the fog formation. persistent light easterly wind
should bring more fog chances sunday morning. will likely add areas
of fog in the forecast for tonight/friday morning and maintain the
patchy mention this weekend.

models suggest the amplitude of the omega will shear off or flatten
by monday. indications are that a weak cold front could push
southward invof southeast michigan, however, current data suggests a
dominance of anticyclonic flow trajectories that will not favor
large scale synoptic ascent. preference is for a dry forecast through
next wednesday.

marine...

high pressure influence persists over the central great lakes today
as a surface ridge begins to build and center over quebec.
northerly winds veer easterly tonight with speeds generally aob 10
knots, becoming southeasterly by friday afternoon/evening. winds turn
southerly into the weekend with a slight uptick in speeds as the
stretch of tranquil and mainly dry conditions continue into next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...cb
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.