Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
195
fxus61 kcle 061213
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
713 am est fri nov 6 2026

.what has changed...
overall forecast expectations are unchanged for this issuance.

&&

.key messages...
1) another cold front will move through this morning with
scattered rain showers today through saturday night, and
turning much cooler this weekend.

2) milder and nice weather will return early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the main weather message today into this weekend will be much
cooler temperatures with scattered lake effect rain showers
through saturday night. a stronger cold front will sweep across
the area this morning. winds will become blustery from the
northwest today through saturday night. lake effect cloudiness
and lake effect rain showers will be likely downwind of the
great lakes today into saturday. high temperatures today and
this weekend will be in the 40s and 50s. overnight lows will be
in the 30s.


key message 2...
nicer weather and a return of milder temperatures will start
sunday into early next week with high pressure building in
across the ohio valley and lower great lakes region. high
temperatures will climb from the 50s into the 60s early and
middle of next week. mainly fair weather conditions are expected
for the first half next week. an unsettled and colder weather
pattern may develop over the great lakes region by late next
week.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
a cold front currently extends from southern and eastern lake
erie southwest across north central oh as of 12z. a period of
lower ceilings to low mvfr or ifr is accompanying the front,
along with some mist and showers. the front will clear the area
to the southeast through the rest of the morning. mvfr largely
prevails behind the front, though ceilings will gradually climb
to low vfr/higher mvfr through the afternoon. once the front
moves through the focus for any shower activity will become lake
effect rain amid west-northwest flow. this activity should begin
to become more organized/intense this afternoon and evening.
lake effect will primarily impact cle and eri, but will also
push towards yng overnight tonight into early saturday and may
briefly try impacting cak. ceilings are expected to dip back to
mvfr tonight even outside of the lake effect showers, with some
lake effect showers likely to bring some vsby restrictions.

southwest winds at 5-10kt ahead of the front will shift west-
northwest behind it. included some wind gusts across northwest
oh and at cle this afternoon.

outlook...mainly vfr returns this weekend outside of some non-
vfr in lake effect rain showers across far northeast oh and
northwest pa.

&&

.marine...
turbulent forecast for lake erie today into this weekend.
winds are turning northwest and increasing to 15-20kt this
morning behind a cold front. winds turn more northwest tonight
and increase to 20-25kt. winds remain in the 15-25kt range but
shift more southwest saturday night into sunday. a cold front
will cross late sunday or sunday night, shifting winds back to
the west-northwest and briefly pushing winds to 20-30kt. winds
finally ease early next week as high pressure builds in. waves
will largely be in the 2-4 foot range for most of today, but
will increase to 5-8 feet tonight, especially east of the
islands. issued a small craft advisory for all of our nearshore
waters, with the advisories continuing through the weekend
across the central and eastern basins.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez145>148.
small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
monday for lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...77/sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
889
fxus63 kiwx 061140
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am est fri nov 6 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers today into
tonight, mainly for areas west of interstate 69 in northern in
and southwest mi.

- cool and breezy today into saturday with highs near 50 degrees.

- dry and warmer than average weather returns early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 316 am est fri nov 6 2026

areas of light rain and drizzle associated with a positively
tilted upper trough and cold front should exit eastern zones by
12z. today into tonight then features a transition to lake
enhanced/effect rain showers thanks to ongoing cold advection
within deepening north-northwest flow. this occurs on the
backside of a potent vort lobe dropping southeast through the
central/eastern great lakes. more intense banding may set up for
a time in sw mi and nc in later this morning through this
evening as the prevailing flow becomes parallel to the long axis
of lake mi resulting in stronger frictional/thermal convergence
over eastern lake mi. localized rainfall amounts may exceed a
half inch in spots, best chances berrien mi down into
laporte/south bend/plymouth. drying and subsidence eventually
takes its toll on inversion heights by later tonight and
saturday bringing an end to more organized le rain. cooler and
somewhat breezy early november wx otherwise today into saturday.

flow regime flattens out sunday into early next week with more
active westerlies shifting off to the north-northeast. return west-
southwest flow will usher in a milder pacific air mass with
sunshine and warm advection resulting in a return to above
normal temps. some degree of upper troughing and caa then
settles back in for the second half of next week with near
normal temps and non-zero rain shower chances.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 632 am est fri nov 6 2026

a northerly flow producing light lake effect rain showers to
areas adjacent to southern lake michigan. did keep mvfr cigs
through the remainder of the period for ksbn. this is due to
the lake effect clouds and -ra/-shra and vcsh mentioned for
ksbn through 18z fri. with the lake effect showers remaining
west of kfwa did keep the forecast dry with vfr conditions until
after 02z sat with a return to mvfr cigs. northerly winds will
veer to more northwesterly late in the period with gusts around
20 kts possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen/steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
444
fxus63 kdtx 061125
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
625 am est fri nov 6 2026

.key messages...

- cooler today with pockets of light rain and drizzle, especially
across the thumb. a northwest breeze keeps wind chill around 40
degrees.

- dry weather helps temperatures rise a few degrees above normal
again during the weekend and early next week.

&&

.aviation...

a strong and compact upper level wave will impact all of lower
michigan today, with its current position near the mackinac straits.
this low will quicky surge south, establishing strong cold advection
across lake superior-lake michigan that sets up a long fetch for
moisture flux. the main result of this locally will be a blanket of
mvfr stratus today and tonight, aided by a strong mid-level dry slot
aloft. a few showers noted on radar over northern mi may survive to
mbs, although cloud cover/showers will tend to break up away from
their moisture source. with that in mind, opted to include a tempo
for occasional vfr conditions to mix in for dtw and nearby terminals
this morning before daytime mixing establishes a healthy stratocu
deck across the airspace. there still may be a few breaks in cloud
cover this afternoon-evening as seen in some model guidance, but on
too small of a scale to include in the taf at this time. otherwise,
northwest flow becomes breezy this afternoon with gusts up to 20-25
knots that may linger overnight depending on the track of the
system`s surface low. models have trended east with the low
trajectory, but if it does shift back west at all this would mean
increased shower potential and reinforcement of gusty winds.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 415 am est fri nov 6 2026

discussion...

a deep upper low is advancing across lower mi this morning with an
impressive presentation to the closed circulation noted in satellite
wv imagery. fgen associated with the aggressive height falls and pva
exits to the east over the next hour with a surge of dry air aloft
quickly working in from the northwest. this brings an end to the
light to moderate rainfall, with a lull in precip until mid morning
when deeper moisture sweeps back across the area. cool northwest
wind with pockets of lake enhanced light rain and/or drizzle bring a
raw, grungy day with temperatures to struggling to reach 50 degrees
this afternoon.

as the deep cyclonic circulation passes overhead, a surface mesolow
is forecast to drop across lake huron this afternoon and evening.
this brings a strongly forced mesoscale band of rain within the
trowal/deformation axis into the vicinity of the eastern thumb.
given the scale of forcing, placement of the heaviest rain carries
uncertainty but confidence has increased for rainfall totals in
excess of 0.50" from port austin to port hope and harbor beach. a
small handful of hi-res solutions and individual members of ens and
geps ensembles indicate potential for localized areas to receive
over 1 inch in the event the mesolow is slower to pass into the
ontario peninsula tonight. surface temps in the 40s and wet bulb
zero heights as low as 2000 ft offer high confidence in rain as the
ptype.

light rain may linger into saturday morning along the thumb
shoreline, otherwise negative vorticity advection ensues in the wake
of the departing upper low to cease precip chances. moist cyclonic
flow below 800mb keeps a good amount of clouds around saturday and
thermal troughing helps hold high temps in the lower 50s. shortwave
ridging crests over the area saturday night before the next trough
arrives from the northwest on sunday. this wave is also deep but
more progressive, targeting lake huron with its main height fall
corridor. light rain may brush the thumb, but the main impact
locally will be a breezy westerly wind as the system passes to the
north. milder conditions develop sunday into tuesday as positive
upper height anomalies prevail over the upper midwest and great
lakes. this period is generally devoid of organized forcing,
favoring dry conditions.

marine...

trough of low pressure remains stretched from quebec southwestward
through the central great lakes early this morning. an upper low
drifting south overnight is causing the surface trough to close into
a low over central lake huron this morning before the whole system
drifts off to the south for the weekend. a trailing trough axis will
get pulled through the area later today as well. winds will be
variable from lake to lake today with the circulation right over
huron. lakes erie and st clair will remain in the northwesterly flow
through the day with the track of the low, while northern huron get
into gusty northeasterly winds north of the low. the cold air
advection is helping to increase mixing depths over the water and
will help keep the winds speeds and waves elevated through this time
across lake huron. this will all lead to an extended period of small
craft advisories across much of the waters now through saturday
morning. will need to watch western lake erie tonight into saturday
morning for brief period of winds gusts to around 25 knots.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lhz422.

small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est saturday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...tf
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.