Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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855
fxus61 kcle 200811
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
311 am est tue jan 20 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast package. a
prolonged stretch of sub-zero wind chills appears likely beginning
this friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) in addition to the dangerously-cold wind chills this morning,
a prolonged period of sub- zero wind chills appears likely beginning
this friday.

2) a widespread snow will return across the area on wednesday.
for the most part, generally light amounts are expected, though
totals may near advisory levels across northwest pennsylvania.

3) we are continuing to monitor potential impacts across our
area from a developing system across the southern conus this
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

an arctic air mass is currently in place across the region this
morning, with recent observations revealing widespread wind
chills of -15 to -20 degrees f and ambient temperatures near
zero. although temperatures will improve slightly this afternoon,
a persistent southwest wind of 10 to 15 mph will result in
near-zero to slightly sub-zero wind chills into tonight as the
arctic air mass largely remains in place. a brief relief to the
cold will arrive on wednesday as a clipper system moves east
through the great lakes, ushering in temperatures near or even
slightly above freezing wednesday afternoon.

looking ahead, a prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills
appears likely towards the end of the week into early next week
as a strong cold front moves through the area on friday. at this
point, the coldest wind chills appear to be late friday into
saturday, with medium to medium-high confidence (50 to 70%) for
values to drop below -15 degrees f. sub-zero wind chills still
appear likely into early next week, though the degree of cold
begins to become a little more uncertain given the developing
system across the southern conus.

key message 2...

the next system to watch will be another clipper on wednesday
into thursday, bringing another period of widespread snow from
west to east across the area. generally light totals of 1 to 2
inches are expected as temperatures quickly warm into the low
to mid-30s by wednesday afternoon. will continue to monitor
trends across northwest pennsylvania where more persistent
colder air will be in place as snow totals may reach advisory
levels (around 4 inches).

key message 3...

finally, we are keeping an eye on a developing system across the
southern conus this weekend and its potential impacts to our
area. as of now, confidence for at least 2 inches of snow
remains low (20% or less), though probabilities over the past
few model cycles have trended slightly upwards. at this point,
these highest probabilities are generally located east of the
i-71 corridor.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
mostly clear skies are observed areawide as high pressure has
built in. mvfr lingers across the lakeshore of northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania as a primary snow band continues
over lake erie. light snow may start to impact parts of the
region late tuesday night. west-southwest winds of 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20-25 knots decrease by tuesday night.

outlook...areawide light snow is expected on wednesday,
followed by lake effect snow impacting northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania wednesday night through friday. areawide
light snow may occur on saturday.

&&

.marine...
the main marine weather concerns now through the end of the week
will be rough conditions expected to continue in the open
waters of lake erie where it is ice free with elevated winds and
waves. we have allowed the gale warning to expire but winds
will continue to be from the west-southwest 15 to 25 knots today
into tonight. there is a heavy freezing spray warning for most
of today for the central and eastern basin of lake erie. we are
temporarily not going to issue small craft advisories for the
time being due to widespread ice coverage in our nearshore
water. another low pressure system will track across the great
lakes region wednesday into thursday with winds increasing from
the southwest 20 to 30 knots. winds will approach gales for a
brief time late wednesday. an arctic high pressure system will
build over the great lakes by this weekend with more
northwesterly winds late week and also decreasing later this
weekend. periods of freezing spray will continue with
considerable ice growth expected on the lake through the
weekend. with the very cold temperatures now through this
weekend, ice growth and expansion on lake erie is expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until noon est today for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...cold weather advisory until noon est today for paz001>003.
marine...heavy freezing spray warning until 4 pm est this afternoon
for lez146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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851
fxus63 kiwx 200807
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
307 am est tue jan 20 2026

.key messages...
- cold wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero warm this morning. our
next chance for cold wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero is
friday.

- lake effect snow showers linger this morning north of the toll
road. winds relax this morning to 20 to 25 mph, but blowing
and drifting of snow is still possible on north-south roads.

- another system will bring light snow accumulations late
tuesday night into wednesday morning. 3 to 6 inches of snow
accumulation are possible in berrien, cass, and st joseph
counties, michigan.

- temperatures warm briefly into low to mid 30s for wednesday
but an arctic airmass and much below normal temperatures
return for later work week into the weekend.

- there are additional periodic chances of lake effect snow
showers wednesday night through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 248 am est tue jan 20 2026

cold air to the tune of -20c at 850 mb still remains across the area
this morning. while the main jet max has already pushed east, 25 to
35 kts still resides up at 850 mb allowing for a 20 to 25 mph
gust. these temps and breezy winds, at times, will allow for
still cold wind chills this morning in the negative low to mid
teens. be sure to bundle up if outside today.

lake effect snow continues with negative theta-e lapse rates still
holding strong into this morning until southerly wind
trajectories finally make their presence felt in the area and
push the sheared out area of vorticity north of the area. this
warm air advection comes in in earnest this afternoon allowing
areas southwest of us-30 to achieve upper teens and low 20s for
highs before sunset.

height rises and mid level ridging allow for suppression of
widespread precipitation even for the lake belt from later today
into tonight. however, a clipper system already introduces snow
chances to the area later tuesday night and that continues
wednesday. this is when the better moisture plume arrives, and
this one has a connection to the gulf. as such, it looks like 3
to 6 inches of snow is most possible north of the toll road late
tuesday night into wednesday. energetic lapse rates and a
departing low pressure system allow for a chance for gusty winds
30 to 40 mph especially in the i-69 corridor in the morning.

what may be a brief break in the weather wednesday afternoon
and evening quickly reverts back to precipitation as a little
drier clipper pushes through wednesday night. this one shows
signs of a moisture plume, but it doesn`t appear to have a gulf
connection like the previous one does. the nam appears to have
some sbcape and excited snow squall parameter including some
energetic low level lapse rates that continue into the overnight
hours.

the sheared area of vorticity behind the aforementioned clipper
system remains near the tear drop of lake mi with times of caa
through the area allowing for times of lake enhancement between
wednesday evening and thursday evening. on the whole, these chances
look to be weak and light, but the the thursday night and
friday lake enhanced profiles appear more respectable.

for thursday night, a vort max rounds the base of the trough and
pushes another dry clipper system through the area. this looks to
affect trajectories across lake mi and likely keeps the lake
enhancement going into the weekend. the other story is the much
colder air arriving friday morning with -25 to -30c 850 mb
temps moving across the area. the good thing this time is that
with the arrival of the strong 1050 mb high pressure system, the
air will be cold, but the winds will be more relaxed than our
recent cold airmass departing. highs friday and saturday
struggle to get into the teens and lows friday night through
sunday night are in the single digits above and below zero. this
would make cold wind advisory threshold wind chills possible
again overnight.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1220 am est tue jan 20 2026

lake effect snow/stratus will continue at ksbn through the
early morning but conditions will steadily improve as inversion
heights lower, winds back slightly, and dry air advection
increases. confidence in the exact timing of the transition to
vfr is low but should occur no later than 13z. vfr then expected
for the rest of the period given shortwave ridging. the next
trough moves into the great lakes early wed morning and may
bring some more light snow/mvfr ceilings to ksbn but that
appears to be just outside this forecast window.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory until 9 am est /8 am cst/ this morning
for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
oh...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...cold weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for miz080-
081.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for miz078-
177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.
heavy freezing spray warning until 10 am est this morning for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 200847
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
347 am est tue jan 20 2026

.key messages...

- winter weather advisory remains in effect through 10am to account
for dangerously cold wind chills of -5 to -15f.

- another round of accumulating snow will impact the area late
tonight through wednesday early afternoon, impacting the am commute.

- arctic air returns friday and remains across the area through the
weekend. potential for minimum wind chill to fall below -15f
saturday and sunday mornings.

&&

.discussion...

the winter weather advisory will continue as scheduled through 10am
this morning to account for the wind chills that have fallen to -10
to -15f across most of the region. there will be some improvement
through the day but 850mb thermal trough remains overhead and only
improves slightly to the negative upper teens so highs will remain
in the mid teens above zero with wind chills rising only to around
0f this afternoon. the corridor of lake effect snow showers has held
fairly firm around m59 over night but will drift northward this
morning as height rises to the south build northward in between a
couple long wave troughs. rh fields show the moisture plume from
lake mi continuing to advect under the strengthening subsidence
inversion so expect clouds to flair back up today and can`t rule out
some flurries with saturation in the 2-4kft layer.

next chance of accumulating snow arrives tonight and persists
through wednesday morning. a low pressure system will reach southern
lake mi around 12z wednesday before curling up to northern lake
huron by the afternoon. the leading arc of isentropic ascent starts
nosing into se mi after 06z tonight with best forcing between 09-15z
as a stout low level jet crosses the height field nearly
perpendicular before the cold front surges through pushing the lift
north and east out of the area. local probabilistic guidance shows a
fairly uniform qpf field across the area, with lower amounts through
the saginaw valley (due to shorter duration) and near the ohio
border (which catches the first few hours before bulk of forcing
lifts north). higher amounts target 0.1 inch of qpf. national
guidance and nbm supports this but does lean a little higher toward
0.15 inches, especially between i94 and i69 with the longest
duration of forcing. this all leads to a general 1-3 inch snowfall
with higher confidence in 2-3 inches occuring in the aforementioned
corridor. isolated 4 inch totals are not out of the question but at
this point don`t have alot of support. one thing to watch will be a
northern shift which would drop our southern counties totals to
possibly under an inch. some lingering light snow may go on into the
evening but little to no accumulation is expected. the cold front
will increase mixing depths in its wake and although the strongest
jet core will get pushed east, there will still be 35 knots aloft
which could get mixed down leading to a period of stronger winds
gusts into the 30-40 knot range. weak shortwave ridge will slide
through wednesday evening into the overnight which should make for a
quiet night and abundant cloud cover will keep min temps elevated in
the teens thus will give a reprieve from the single digit or
negative wind chills.

train of shortwaves will continue through the trough thursday and
friday but better forcing gets pushed north so as of now models are
lean on any precip/snow thursday morning but wouldn`t be surprised
to get some minor accumulations. thursday will also be the last day
before the next arctic outbreak. highs will reach into the 20s but a
an arctic front dropping through overnight will usher in the coldest
airmass of the season where 850mb temps fall to around -30c vs the -
22 to -24c we experienced with the last airmass. highs will only
reach the single digits friday and saturday with lows currently
forecast to be -5 to -10f friday night and around -5f again
saturday. this would result in wind chill values of -10 to -20f
friday night and around -10f saturday night. temperatures then
slowly moderate heading into next week but remain below average.

&&

.marine...

the region remains locked into a large-scale troughing pattern
throughout the week maintaining very cold conditions, elevated
winds/waves, freezing spray, and periods of snowfall. the heavy
freezing spray warning across the open waters of lake huron was
extended until 4 pm given the resident arctic airmass and prevailing
winds holding near 25 knots with favorable air/water temperatures.
lake effect snow showers wind down later today as broad high pressure
builds out of the tennessee valley. the next low pressure system
swings in on wednesday followed by a period of possible gales on
thursday. this results from another arctic airmass, which will also
require some combination of small craft advisories for portions of
the nearshore waters and potential heavy freezing spray warnings for
lake huron.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1132 pm est mon jan 19 2026

aviation...

differential anticyclonic vorticity advection the latter half of
tonight will support an increasing ridging influence at the surface.
this should dissuade larger scale convergence and inland lake effect
activity over southeast michigan. active subsidence in the 4.5 to
9.0 kft agl layer will result in strong static stability in the
midlevels. preference is for the clearing to continue that is in
place for many areas. daytime heating is expected to result in vfr
stratocumulus during the daytime tuesday.

for dtw...preference is for vfr conditions the remainder of tonight
with the clearing that is in place. just a very low chance for any
lake effect to move back into the airfield.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through tomorrow.

* high for precip type being snow.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...heavy freezing spray warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lhz361>363-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......kgk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.