Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 071123
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
723 am edt sun jun 7 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) next chances for showers/storms come from an upper level trough
centered around the tuesday time frame.

2.) heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the great lakes.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
cold front should be south of the cwa by mid morning today with high
pressure building on for today through monday as it moves from the
northern great lakes towards long island. slightly cooler today as a
result. tuesday will see a brief return to upper level troughing
combined with a warm front that will move through the cwa. pops on
the increase as a result for showers and storms, but for now, the
focus of this activity will be the potential for heavy rain. the
convection itself should be scattered overall, but a subtle low
level jet with a significant influx of low level moisture will
appear, and pwat values could climb above 2 inches. dewpoints will
climb above 70f and vertical profiles indicate that high
precipitation efficiency is likely, so downpours could be an issue,
especially in a convective training or backbuilding situation. still
have time for these details to continue to unfold.

key message 2...
for the rest of the week, another upper level ridge builds into the
great lakes, and temperatures will remain on the higher side with
dewpoints also elevated as well in the lower 70s. will need to watch
for apparent t values to eclipse the 100f mark with temperatures
that could reach the lower 90s. isolated to scattered convection can
be expected during daytime heating hours for the end of thee week,
and then more organized threats friday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
primarily vfr conditions under high pressure through the taf
window outside of lingering patchy fog this morning. expect for
any remaining ifr visibilities in br to dissipate within the
next hour or so. winds become northerly to northeasterly at
5-10 knots this morning.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early tuesday through thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue to build over the lake today giving
way to light onshore flow. winds turn easterly while increasing
to 5-15 knots on monday. a warm front approaches the lake on
tuesday allowing for winds to shift southerly while remaining
between 10-15 knots. southerly to southwesterly flow will
continue through the remainder of the week. not anticipating any
marine headlines.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 071101
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
701 am edt sun jun 7 2026

.key messages...

- there is a 20-60 percent chance for showers and storms
southwest of a line from north judson, in to portland, in. the
highest chances will be over white county, in. highs today
will range from 83-88 degrees. lows tonight will range from 59
to 69 degrees.

- nearly daily chances (20-50 percent)for showers and storms
through next weekend, especially monday into tuesday night
(50-90 percent). chances will be highest west of i 69 on
monday, especially near lake mi. on tuesday, the best chances
are east of us 31. highs will be in the mid-upper 80s, nearing
90 deg monday. heat indices will range from 88-96 degrees
during peak heating.

- hot and humid, especially from wednesday into friday. heat
indices will be at or slightly above 100 degrees at times.
highs will be in the upper 80s, low-mid 90s. lows in the 60s,
low-mid 70s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 438 am edt sun jun 7 2026

as of this writing, there were scattered rain showers developing
from north judson, in southeastward into grant county, in. isolated
showers are also near lima, oh and berne, in. this activity
will likely persist on and off through the afternoon and
overnight ahead of the stalled cold front (eventually drops
southeast through this afternoon). thunderstorms are possible,
though severe weather is not expected. have pops generally at
20-60 percent today for this location (greatest chances in white
county, in).

otherwise, observations suggest transient patchy fog, with a few
sites dropping to 1/2 to 1sm briefly. kfwa just dropped to 4-5sm for
an hour, then returned to 10 miles. other sites reporting vis
reductions are in the 2-5 mile range. it`s possible as we continue
to radiate (where high/mid level clouds are less opaque) that more
sites drop down through early morning, with recent rainfall and
light/variable winds. held off on any headlines given it seems
pretty patchy and short-lived.

highs today climb to around 82-88 degrees, with lows tonight in the
upper 50s and 60s.

monday we`ll see a sharp trough move through, with the highest pops
(30-75 percent) limited to areas mainly west of i 69 (especially
near lake mi) in the afternoon. thunderstorms are possible. warm air
advection forces our boundary north monday evening into tuesday,
which heads eastward into ohio tue pm into wed am. this takes our
pops/storms to areas mainly along/east of us 31, highest chances
further east. highs monday and tuesday will be 84-90 degrees,
with heat indices ranging from 88 to 96 degrees at peak heating.


after that wave exits, our area rests at the periphery of a surface
high broadly parked over the se conus. return flow around this high
moves gulf moisture northward, particularly as a low pressure trough
(and sfc cold front) associated with low pressure moving east
through ontario approaches from the west (by friday morning). high
temperatures wed/thu range from 88 to 92 degrees, with heat indices
between 95-102 degrees. additional shortwaves ripple through the
flow on the periphery of the upper level ridge, which brings us
20- 40 percent chances for showers/storms wed and 30-54 percent
on thursday. lows will drop into the upper 60s, low to mid 70s.
headlines for extreme heat may be needed on wed/thu.

thursday night into friday we cool down somewhat with highs 82-88
degrees and heat indices only in the 85-92 degree range. lows will
be in the 60s. the cold front and a mid-level trough attempts to
break down the ridge exiting to the east, and a surface trough/cold
front moves through our area during this period. chances on thursday
night range from 50-70 percent, and 20 to 50 percent on friday.
thunderstorms are possible once again. lows fri night will fall into
the low to mid 60s.

next weekend will be cooler, with highs 80 to 85 deg on saturday and
77 to 82 degrees on sunday. there are daily chances (20-30 percent)
for showers and isolated storms, though it`s possible saturday ends
up completely dry and the better potential moves in to the west half
sunday afternoon.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 658 am edt sun jun 7 2026

vfr conditions expected at the terminals with variable mid/high
level clouds for a majority of the period. ceilings of around
5kft may impact kfwa through the morning, then sct/bkn 25k is
most likely beyond that. light and/or variable flow this morning
will gradually become more east-southeasterly through the
period at about 5-10 knots.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 070948
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
548 am edt sun jun 7 2026

.key messages...

- dry today into tomorrow.

- next chance for thunderstorms late tomorrow into tuesday. tuesday
carries a heavy rainfall threat.

- hot and humid wednesday and thursday along with additional
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure builds over ontario today, with its southern flank
expanding into lower michigan. light northeast flow veers gradually
to the east by this evening, aided by lake breezes off of saginaw
bay and lake st clair/lake erie. lack of column moisture ensures vfr
conditions through the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms will impact the airspace
through the taf period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 am edt sun jun 7 2026

discussion...

post frontal anticylonic flow has developed in the wake of the
frontal passage pushing instability out of the area and bringing
broad subsidence. the upper ridging and surface high drifting across
the great lakes will maintain the dry and stable conditions today
with mostly clear skies aside from a few possible lake clouds around
the thumb. northerly winds today will make for a more noticeable
temperature change compared to yesterday across the thumb lakeshore
areas where afternoon lake influenced highs will be in the 70s. low
to mid 80s can be expected for inland areas under full insolation.

dry weather will continue through at least the first half of
tomorrow as the ridge slides east. a southern stream shortwave will
lift northward into the midwest quickly following the passing of the
ridge. a sharp moisture gradient that had been suppressed to the
west will be released across southeast michigan late tomorrow into
tuesday. precipitation chances creep into central michigan with lower
end chances reaching western portions of the cwa towards the late
afternoon, but will more than likely hold off until tomorrow night
into tuesday.

the southern stream wave and deep southerly flow will draw even
better gulf moisture into southeast michigan on tuesday bringing the
next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. the
moisture rich environment will result in a heavy rainfall threat
supported by pwats approaching or achieving 2.00 inches, surface
dewpoints in the low 70s, tall skinny cape profiles, and weak cloud
layer winds. the overall severe weather threat looks low given the
weak shear and lack of instability/moist adiabatic lapse rates, but
water loaded downdrafts could still generate some gusty downburst
winds. the limited severe threat leans toward a heavy rainfall
threat that is more isolated and location dependent within the urban
areas. most ensembles put qpf amounts at 0.25" to 0.75". a few
ensemble members along with local probabilistic guidance point to
amounts that could reach 1.00" to 1.50" or greater during the day
tuesday.

return flow becomes established wednesday downstream of troughing
extending across the northern us rockies into the upper midwest.
this will bring a chance for warmer temperatures mid to late week
into the lower 90s as 850 mb temperatures reach around 20c.
unsettled flow will persist with chances for showers and
thunderstorms both wednesday and thursday, so being able to reach the
90s will be dependent on what the cloud cover and coverage of
convection ends up verifying. higher coverage of precipitation and
clouds likely brings these highs back into the 80s, while a drier
outcome makes low 90s more achievable then in turn would also push
heat indices towards 100 degrees and the potential heat headlines.
will continue to monitor the heat potential.

marine...

high pressure will fill in across the eastern great lakes today
which will continue to decrease winds across lake huron this
morning. winds will veer north to northeast today and will then
continue to veer east-southeast by tomorrow morning. low pressure
enters tuesday into wednesday which will bring some unsettled
weather including periodic rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
winds still generally remain light through this time frame as gusts
hold aob 20 knots, outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...aa
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.