Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
705 pm est thu dec 25 2025

.synopsis...
a low pressure system will move across the area friday morning
through friday night, with high pressure briefly building in on
saturday. a strong low pressure system moves across the great
lakes region on sunday and sunday night, with a surface trough
lingering across the area through tuesday.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
the forecast area will remain under the influence of high pressure
well off north in canada through the first part of tonight. this
feature will keep dry conditions with increasing clouds and allow
for temperatures to cool into the 20s for most of the area.

the main concern will be the incoming low pressure system that will
impact the area from late tonight through friday. for this
afternoon`s forecast package, there is increasing consensus on a low
pressure system tracking through the forecast area on friday. with
this system, there will be precipitation that will outpace the
system. unfortunately, with temperatures tonight starting in the 20s,
there will be the threat for freezing rain across the forecast area
until the warm front sweeps through most of the area. where the warm
front gets hung up in nw oh and ne oh/nw pa, there will be a longer
threat of freezing rain and in turn, ice accumulations with the
potential for travel impacts are expected. therefore, have issued a
suite of winter weather headlines with this package. for northwest
ohio, have a winter weather advisory for freezing rain from 5 am to
noon friday . for northeast ohio, have a winter weather advisory for
freezing rain from 8 am to 3 pm friday. for northwest pennsylvania,
have winter headlines from 10 am friday to 1 am saturday with an ice
storm warning replacing the winter storm watch in southern erie and
crawford counties and a winter weather advisory for northern erie.
areas not in any winter weather headlines may have a brief period of
freezing precipitation, but precipitation types should be quick to
change to rain and impacts should be minimal. it is possible that a
special weather statement may be issued to handle the brief window
of freezing drizzle/rain, but do not expect many, if any, impacts.

from previous forecast packages, there is more consistency in
precipitation arriving in northwest ohio before temperatures warm
above freezing. cold east flow off lake erie will help stave off the
advancement of warmer temperatures for a couple of hours and it may
be until late morning before temperatures in the toledo metro get
above 32f. given about 6 hours of frozen precipitation, expect ice
accumulations of a light glaze to one tenth of an inch of ice,
highest near the ohio/michigan border through noon on friday. as the
low arrives on friday afternoon, temperatures will reach their
maximum in the upper 30s and should allow a window of rain to help
alleviate any ice impacts.

for northeast ohio and northwest pa, there are increasing trends
across the board in the total qpf in the region, including the 12z
href over 0.50" qpf by 00z saturday. this increase in precipitation
also includes a fair bit more qpf before temperatures rise above
freezing. therefore, have increased ice totals across the entire
area with more appreciable accumulations in ne oh. given a touch
more certainty in 0.25" of ice in nw pa, have opted for the ice
storm warning. the trend in snow across the region is down before
changing over to ice. the system is delayed enough with the warm
nose entering that the initial precipitation type should be right to
freezing drizzle/rain and would rather message the ice threat
directly with the ice storm warning rather than a more muddled
message with a winter storm warning. with the increased ice totals
in ne oh, felt more confident in a winter weather advisory for ne
oh, especially the higher elevation areas that may stave off the
warm front longer.

one note for the ice and temperature forecasts across the region,
have gone substantially lower than the nbm for temperatures from
tonight into friday, as the nbm is not going to handle temperatures
appropriately, as sub-freezing temperatures will stick around longer
in this setup with wet-bulbing expected. hi-resolution guidance
members are suggesting that temperatures in nw pa may actually stay
below freezing through the entire near term period and would allow
for icy conditions to linger into saturday. this also means that the
official ice forecast will bias higher than the 50th percentile from
the nbm and some other ensemble members. high temperatures for the
region will go from the 30s north to 50s south, so it will be quite
the gradient across just the local area.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
an upper ridge axis will be over the region on saturday with surface
high pressure building back from eastern canada into the eastern
great lakes. this should allow for some of the warmer air to retain
across the region with dry conditions for saturday. for areas
impacted by the freezing rain on friday and friday night,
temperatures will push above freezing and should help thaw out some
of the ice in nw pa/ne oh. temperatures will range from the mid-to-
upper 30s north to mid 40s south. for sunday, another low pressure
system will develop over the central conus and lift northeast into
the great lakes region. the local area will be on the warm side of
this system and rain will enter on sunday with a warm front and
temperatures should surge into the 50s across the area. there could
even be a chance at some lower 60s in the south, depending on the
final low track and how aggressive the warm air advection may be with
the rain on sunday.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
for monday and through the rest of 2025, the pattern will return to
a more traditional late december pattern with a low pressure system
clearing the region to the east as an upper trough digs into the
great lakes region. this will allow for temperatures to return back
toward normal, if not back colder into the 20s for highs and teens
for lows. the main concern for the period will be the return of snow
to the local area. monday would feature light amounts of snow
everywhere with some lake enhancement into ne oh/nw pa. for monday
night into tuesday, the main question will be lake effect snow and
what impacts are possible for ne oh/nw pa. if 850 mb temperatures
can get fairly cold into the -14 to -16c range and if the fetch can
favor oh/pa with northwest flow, then some meaningful snow
accumulations are possible locally. will maintain some higher pops
for ne oh/nw pa for lake effect snow. have less certainty on the
pattern evolution for new year`s eve and day, as there is potential
for a colder shot of air from the north or for that to miss the area
to the east and temperatures would moderate slightly to ramp down
the lake effect snow machine.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is observed areawide and expected to continue through most
of the overnight period. low pressure is expected to move across
the region on friday, bringing a wide range of conditions.
precipitation moves eastward across the area, with an initial
period of freezing rain possible long the leading edge, with the
greatest chance of freezing rain in northwest ohio near toledo,
and across parts of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
where freezing rain occurs, it shouldn`t last no more than a few
hours before transitioning to rain. a messier mix of
precipitation, including sleet and snow, may be possible at
keri, though uncertainty in the precipitation type forecast
there is very high right now.

ceilings and visibilities should deteriorate to mvfr within a
couple hours of the onset of precipitation, followed by ifr
within a few hours of the onset of mvfr conditions. the worst
conditions are expected during the afternoon/evening hours when
ceilings as low as 200-400 ft may be possible.

precipitation should begin to end from northwest to southeast
later this evening, though it`s uncertain at this point how
quickly ceilings improve.

east winds gradually become southeast by daybreak friday
morning. broad cyclonic flow will then develop this evening as
low pressure moves east-southeast directly across the forecast
area, becoming more persistently northwest this evening and
tonight as the low pulls away from the area.

outlook...low ceilings will persist through saturday. non-vfr
is likely to return on sunday in widespread rain, transitioning
to snow with a strong cold front sunday night into monday.
westerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots and occasional snow
showers are likely sunday night into monday. snow showers and
occasional low ceilings may persist across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania on tuesday.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet marine conditions are expected into sunday with
varying wind directions and generally weak to modest flow. one
period that may need monitoring is tonight into friday when
easterly flow of 15 to 20 knots develops. however, flow is
expected to gradually favor a slight southeast direction by
friday afternoon which will limit the potential for headlines.

otherwise, attention turns towards late sunday night through
monday as a strong cold front moves east through the area,
ushering in westerly winds of 30 to 35 knots. the potential for
even higher winds of near 40 knots is becoming more likely,
particularly across the central and eastern basin of lake erie
on monday. a gale watch will likely be needed in the next couple
of forecast iterations if trends persist. in addition, water
levels may also drop below the critical mark for safe navigation
on monday given the elevated westerly flow.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 5 am to noon est friday for
ohz003-006>009.
winter weather advisory from 8 am to 3 pm est friday for
ohz013-014-022-023-033.
pa...winter weather advisory from 10 am friday to 1 am est saturday
for paz001.
ice storm warning from 10 am friday to 1 am est saturday for
paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...saunders/sefcovic
near term...sefcovic
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic
aviation...saunders
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
829 pm est thu dec 25 2025

.key messages...
- freezing rain is possible late tonight through early friday
morning with minor travel disruptions possible across much of
the area. the best chance (>50%) of greater than 0.05 inch of
ice accumulation will be near the in/mi state line into
northwest oh, and points to the north, where winter weather
advisories are in effect.

- after a mild weekend ahead, a strong cold front will arrive on
sunday with widespread rain and possible thunderstorms
transitioning to lake effect snow and sharply colder
temperatures from sunday night through monday.

- near normal temperatures (highs in the 20s and 30s) next week
with several chances for lake effect snow.

&&

.update...
issued at 825 pm est thu dec 25 2025

no immediate plans for any headline changes at this time, with
previous forecast appearing to be largely on track. sfc pressure
falls continue to strengthen this evening from eastern iowa into
southern wisconsin which has aided in notable uptick in sfc
easterly wind gusts this evening. this initial easterly sfc
flow will help to lock in some drier low level air through the
night, particularly across far northeast portions of the
forecast area. some better 850-700 mb moisture return will work
from west to east across the area overnight in association with
elevated warm front lifting north and a moderately strong
southwesterly 850 mb jet. this low/mid level flow increase
should be accompanied by some increase in low/mid level fgen
along with weak moisture convergence given some subtle speed
convergence at the nose of this jet across southern lower
michigan/far northern indiana. this forcing combined with some
respectable mid level lapse rates/weak elevated instability
should support increasing rain shower coverage late tonight into
friday morning.

the big question still remains the extent of any freezing rain
ptypes across the northeast given longer residence time of
drier/colder low level air. short term hi-res guidance trends
still support previous forecast idea of best freezing rain
potential across the winter weather advisory area roughly in the
09z-16z window late tonight/friday morning. some uncertainty
still remains with impacts given what could be marginal pavement
temps and possibility of some convective nature of precip
possibly not being as efficient with ice accretion. however, as
mentioned in previous discussion, it does not take much freezing
rain to cause travel impacts and current winter weather
advisory area still appears to have main threat area covered
well. outside of the winter weather advisory, some consideration
may be given for an sps for adjacent counties for a more brief
period of freezing rain late tonight/early friday morning before
near sfc wet bulbs support liquid. however, given the
uncertainties discussed above, confidence is not high in notable
impacts outside of the winter weather advisory area.

otherwise, did add some fog mention in the 11z-16z period given
upstream trends, with best potential along and north of sfc
warm frontal feature friday morning. some localized dense fog is
possible, but transitory nature of frontal feature should limit
duration of any dense fog.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm est thu dec 25 2025

merry christmas from all of us at nws iwx! the primary forecast
concern/highlight over the next 12-24 hours continues to be the
potential for post-christmas travel impacts overnight into early
friday morning with areas of freezing rain likely to lead to some
minor ice accumulations. strong low-level warm air advection will
occur overnight with h85 temperatures rising to near +10 deg c by
12z friday. href ensemble soundings across branch/hillsdale county
show very little spread indicating strong agreement with a very
sharp warm nose/frontal inversion with sub-freezing air remaining
near the surface. href probabilities of greater than 0.05 inch of
ice accumulation (fram) are greater than 50% across the previously
mentioned areas, but taper off quickly to the southwest. even so,
still seeing 40-50% probabilities of 0.02" or greater per the href
suite as far south as fort wayne, so at least minor impacts could
become even more widespread than currently expected. do believe
impacts further south and west will be more limited as rising
temperatures should contribute to an earlier change-over to rain
with any resulting road hazards diminishing in time for the am
commute. greatest uncertainty, still, is the anticipated relatively
marginal surface temperatures (30-32 degrees at the onset) which
could lead to an early end to -zr once latent heat release takes
over. even so, it does not take much and even just a couple
hundredths of an inch could be problematic for post-holiday
travelers. as such, preferred to err on the side of caution
here and join in on a winter weather advisory per coordination
with neighboring wfos. this is valid from 08z-17z friday.

after a mild weekend, a strong cold front will arrive on sunday
night w/ widespread showers (and perhaps some thunderstorms) ahead
of the front on sunday afternoon, changing to lake effect snow
sunday night through monday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 645 pm est thu dec 25 2025

a series of embedded mid/upper level short waves across upper ms
valley/corn belt will rapidly shift across the southern great
lakes into friday morning. this will allow sfc warm frontal
boundary to lift northward across northern indiana by friday
morning. elevated warm/moist advection preceding this near sfc
warm front and some instability aloft will set the stage for
increasing rain shower coverage late evening and especially
overnight. initial easterly near sfc flow component may allow
for a brief period of freezing rain at kfwa closer to precip
onset overnight, but greater potential of freezing rain should
remain east/northeast of the terminals across extreme ne
indiana/south central lower michigan. east winds should become
gusty for a time tonight to 20 to 25 knots before slackening
toward morning as gradient relaxes with approach of sfc low
pressure. cigs/vsbys should deteriorate to ifr and possibly lifr
friday am with warm frontal progression, with improvements to
be slow in nature heading toward end of this period. the
approach of the warm front could also introduce a brief period
of llws criteria being met friday morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon est friday for
inz006-007.
oh...winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon est friday for
ohz001-002.
mi...winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon est friday for
miz079>081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...hammer
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
950 pm est thu dec 25 2025

.key messages...

- winter weather advisory in effect friday for all of southeast
michigan. widespread freezing rain and impacts to travel are
anticipated. ice accumulations between a tenth and two tenths
favored with locally higher amounts possible. around an inch of
snow and sleet mix possible in the northernmost portions of the
thumb.

- the potential exists for heavy rainfall sunday as a strong winter
system wraps up over the great lakes. strong northwest winds appear
likely late sunday night and monday behind an arctic front.

- below normal temperatures for the middle of next week.

&&

.update...

the evening forecast update focuses on the freezing rain event that
is on schedule to begin right around sunrise and peak mid to late
morning. strong consideration is being given to a short fused ice
storm warning upgrade for the m-59 to i-69 corridors following
further evaluation of the 00z models in the upcoming forecast cycle.

18z to 00z runs of the rap and hrrr, and an early look at the new
00z model cycle, continue to offer high qpf blossoming overhead
across the area during the morning into early friday afternoon. the
m-59 to i-69 corridors are targeted as the area where icing will be
most efficient considering the stream of cold and dry boundary layer
air set to move in from southern ontario. t/td in the teens there
suggest greater potential to maintain surface tw in the mid to upper
20s in se mi north of m-59 during the bulk of the morning event. an
attempt to distill the scenario down to characteristics of the
vertical temperature profile and boundary layer tw, point to a
deeper and higher magnitude warm nose aloft and shallower but well
mixed surface based cold layer that reduces sleet potential. this
results in more of a pure freezing rain scenario during peak
intensity of the event and raises capability to exceed 0.25 inch of
flat icing to counter the extent of warm air aloft and the
relatively short duration of the event.

for now, the advisory remains in effect with emphasis on locally
higher icing along the i-69 to m-59 corridors. farther north across
the tri cities and northern thumb a shallower warm nose aloft and
deeper surface based cold layer point to greater potential for
sleet. the advisory also continues farther south toward metro
detroit where warmer air potentially leaks northward from lake erie,
as mentioned in the afternoon discussion, and also as the surface
low center tracks very near the ohio border.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 705 pm est thu dec 25 2025

aviation...

dry and colder air in the low levels off northern ontario high
pressure has effectively displaced mvfr clouds from se mi this
evening. earlier ne wind in the 10 to 20 kt range did most of the
work and remains steady around 10 knots tonight to further reinforce
cold and dry air across the region. this sets the stage for freezing
rain arrival shortly after sunrise with similar onset timing along
the terminal corridor. a rapid drop from vfr into low end mvfr
ceiling and visibility occur as precipitation intensity increases
during the morning. a mix of freezing rain and sleet is more likely
toward mbs, greater intensity freezing rain from fnt to ptk, and a
lighter intensity toward dtw. all areas see icing of at least 0.1"
with higher totals to around 0.2" beginning to show focus from ptk
to fnt until the pattern exits around mid friday afternoon.

for dtw... confidence remains high in freezing rain friday morning
to early afternoon. freezing rain is expected to begin around 12-13z
and continue through 18z before tapering off through the mid-
afternoon. ice accumulations between 0.1" to 0.2" are possible, but
with potential for temperatures to climb slightly above 32 degrees
by late morning which could reduce these amounts.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less friday.

* high for freezing rain friday morning through mid-afternoon.

prev discussion...
issued at 403 pm est thu dec 25 2025

discussion...

surface ridge axis extending south of the james bay region will work
across southeast michigan this afternoon and tonight. northeast
surface trajectories areawide and dewpoints ranging in the 20s point
to the influence of the anticyclone and ridge axis. both sun and
clouds across the forecast area earlier today with a blanket of
stratocumulus downwind of lake huron and increasing high cloud in
advance of fridays system. very quiet weather for outdoor interests
the remainder of this afternoon and evening; temperatures dropping
into the 20s.

the biggest model trend/tendency of the 25.12z model suite was
toward solution convergence regarding qpf. in fact, saw many hires
cams arrive wetter with qpf amounts and with a shift of the qpf
swaths northeast, much more in line with the consensus of the global
determnistics of the past few days. high confidence exists in a
widespread freezing rain event for southeast michigan friday
beginning after 10z and persisting until mid friday afternoon. the
potential does exist for sleet to mix in with the freezing rain and
cut back on the icing amounts. widespread impacts to the morning
commute and holiday travel are anticipated and the decision was made
to issue a winter weather advisory hazardous road conditions.

a high amount of uncertainty remains with this friday system,
particularly with the overall potential for higher end qpf and its
exact placement/positioning (i.e. potential impacts). a rather robust
consensus exists out of the 25.12z deterministics for a swath of
0.50 to 1.00 inch qpf varying in north to south extent from i 94
corridor to the i 69 corridor. more comprehensive datasets do not
necessarily agree with the aigfs/ec-aifs offering qpf of 0.30-0.40
inch, 75th percentile of the eps ranging .40 to .60 inch. want to
communicate that heavy precipitation rates will be possible owing to
the strength of the 925-850mb low pressure circulation that forces
the wave of substantial warm advection. the first wave of 600mb
thetae advection after 10z opens the door for precipitation to reach
the ground, but it is the secondary midlevel moisture surge between
15-18z that will be a key player. plan view of moisture and
isentropic surfaces suggests a thetae gradient lifting northward and
potentially stalling into the higher elevation areas of northern
metro detroit eastward to eastern st clair county. plenty of
discussion here regarding what the efficiently of accretion will be
if the higher/convective precipitation rates occur. uncertain that
water from heavier and shorter duration rates will be able to
freeze highly efficiently, instead running off objects given a
modest southeast wind. in addition, will be looking at a modified
air mass of sorts with wind trajectories off the lake aggregate of
lake erie and lake st. clair with many datasets climbing towards
30-32f mark. the one exception could be portions of st clair county
between port huron and harsens island westward through northern
macomb to northern oakland counties where wind trajectories could
work around the southern end of lake huron and hold a better wet
bulbing potential. if this type of environment were to align with a
stalling of the thermal gradient and the horizontal/uvv circulations
collapse in scale then could see a scenario where power outages
would be a much bigger issue. will need to continue monitoring
model/data trends heading into the event tomorrow for any potential
headline changes.

high amplitude, record breaking upper level ridge pushes across
southeast michigan on saturday and sunday. anomalously strong
inversion is anticipated with 850mb temperatures of +9-10c at 850mb.
the next dynamic system is set for sunday with a very sharp cold
front. a few main points with the sunday system. magnitude of warmth
and pwats will support heavy rainfall potential with some data
suggesting amounts of an inch or more in vicinity of southeast
michigan. projected absolute vorticity advection and projected
thermal gradient along the cold front suggests thunderstorms could
be possible sunday evening. lastly, the potential still appears
likely for strong synoptic wind potential late sunday and monday.
much colder air to follow tuesday and wednesday.

marine...

high pressure passing to the north of the great lakes veers wind
direction from northeast this afternoon, to east this evening, to
east-southeast friday morning. magnitude will be 15 to 20 kt tonight
before increasing to 20 to 25 kt on friday as a compact low pressure
system tracks across the southern lakes. gusts increase to around 30
kt on lake huron before weakening friday evening as the system
departs. the onshore flow will maintain a heightened wave field
across southern lake huron and a small craft advisory remains in
effect for the nearshore waters from outer saginaw bay to port huron
through friday night. the system will also produce widespread wintry
precip including snow, sleet, and freezing rain. a ridge of high
pressure extending from southern quebec will dominate on saturday
with lighter east to southeast wind. a stronger low pressure system
then tracks through the region sunday night, bringing another round
of widespread precipitation and gusty northwest wind on monday as
colder air moves back in. a period of gales is becoming increasingly
likely monday morning and afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...winter weather advisory from 5 am to 4 pm est friday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est friday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

update.......bt
aviation.....bt
discussion...cb
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.