Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
219
fxus61 kcle 301108
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
708 am edt tue jun 30 2026

.what has changed...
added all ohio counties to extreme heat warning based largely on
cumulative multi-day effects of heat with little relief at
night.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat and humidity have arrived through at least thursday and
possibly into friday as well.

2) as the upper ridge breaks down and retreats back to the southeast
coast, expecting chances for convective activity to increase friday
through the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
due to longevity of the heat, high dewpoints, and little recovery in
the temperatures at night, have upgraded the ohio counties of our
cwa to an extreme heat warning. the main setup for the heat remains
the same. a 597dkm upper level high pressure system is building over
the ohio valley and will persist through the end of the week. this
is a dry system with little to no rain chances through thursday.
where the variability in the forecast comes into play is with the
850mb temperatures. the nam is the most aggressive with how high
these temperatures will get with 24-26c for the region, while other
operational models are more in the 22c range. this will ultimately
be the difference between near 100f and closer to the mid 90s,
respectively. also playing a factor is that the ground has had a few
days to dry out, which will foster heat, but on the other hand, 10-
15mph of southwesterly winds in the western zones could account for
keeping the temperatures down a degree or two. in the end, these are
fine-tuning features for the temperatures, but the story remains the
same with impactful heat and dewpoints for the rest of the week.

key message 2...
the upper level ridge will finally break down and retreat to the
southeast, putting the cwa back into a more zonal flow aloft for
friday into the weekend. the result of this will be the return of
convective chances for the region, although will need to assess
instability, shear, and any lingering capping issues as this time
frame nears. but the thought is this could be a more active part of
the forecast and will be watching for trends towards any severe
potential.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period with
south to southwest flow across the region. the theme for the
daytime hours will be an intermittent cumulus field between 3
and 5 kft that is being supported by warm air advection across
the region. some vfr ceilings will be in and out of the region
with the cu field but should become more few/sct with afternoon
mixing. southwest winds may pick up a bit this afternoon,
especially in nw oh, where some 20 kt gusts are possible.
otherwise, the cumulus field should decay this evening and leave
vfr with high clouds overnight.

outlook...vfr through most of thursday. low risk for an isolated
shower or storm thursday afternoon. greater potential for
scattered showers and storms friday and saturday afternoons.

&&

.marine...
a warm front will move across the lake early this morning and
usher in southwest flow to the basin. this flow averaging 10 kts
should remain through the forecast period and into the weekend.
there could be a lake breeze that develops east of cleveland to
allow for minor shifts in wind direction but they would be
short-lived. shower and thunderstorm activity will return
starting on thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.climate...
hotter and more humid weather is expected through friday.
record warm high temperatures may be challenged. here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until noon edt today for ohz003-006-017.
extreme heat warning from noon today to 8 pm edt thursday for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt thursday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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025
fxus63 kiwx 301025
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
625 am edt tue jun 30 2026

.key messages...

- extreme heat warning is in effect through thursday evening.
daily highs in the 90s and heat indices greater than 100
degrees. lows in the mid-70s provide minimal relief.

- remaining hot on friday with increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 228 am edt tue jun 30 2026

water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a towering ridge over
the eastern-half of the conus, with a 1019mb surface high analyzed
over alabama. convection over the upper great lakes may allow some
debris clouds overhead this morning, but this will have limited
impacts to today`s heat and humidity.

our upper-level ridge amplifies somewhat today and shifts a touch
north as well. this, along with early-morning temperatures will into
the 70s this hour, will propel temperatures a few degrees warmer
than monday. heat index values of 100-108 were realized monday and
we expect more of the same this afternoon. the extreme heat warning
carries on through thursday, and neighboring offices have upgraded
headlines to join the warning.

model guidance continues to show hints that this ridge will ease
somewhat on friday as the 500-mb pattern in the west flattens,
allowing downstream flow to flatten atop the now-displaced ridge.
this change permits showers and thunderstorms to enter the late-week
forecast, but specifics are sparse in what will be a day-to-day
convective environment. looking seasonably warm early next week,
with highs well into the 80s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 620 am edt tue jun 30 2026

a unique feature on water vapor and satellite imagery has
resulted in a narrow area of stratus over northern indiana. an
outflow boundary (or other convective feature) appears to have
spilled inland from a decaying complex of storms east of
toronto, on. a further marine-layer influence off huron and erie
could be at play as well. anyway, with daytime mixing underway
shortly, this stratus ought to be short lived. i`ll maintain a
vfr taf at ksbn as they appear to be further removed from the
westward extend of this interesting feature. higher confidence
at kfwa yields a tempo.

otherwise, diurnal trend with sw wind today, including a few
gusts near 20 knots.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...extreme heat warning until 8 pm edt thursday for miz078>081-
177-277.
air quality alert until midnight edt tonight for miz177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 301005
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
605 am edt tue jun 30 2026

.key messages...

- an extreme heat warning is in effect tuesday afternoon through
thursday for high temperatures reaching the mid 90s to 100 degrees
and heat indices in excess of 105 degrees each day.

- there will be little nighttime relief as lows only cool into the
mid 70s with heat index around 80 each night.

- wednesday and thursday are the hottest days, however hot and humid
conditions also extend into friday and the holiday weekend along
with increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

strong influence of a large high pressure system centered over the
ohio valley will maintain a high degree of stability across the
region through tonight. this ensures widespread vfr conditions, with
a limited coverage of high based cumulus expected. a period of
thicker mid level cloud will be possible at times, particularly at
mbs, as convection lifts out of the upper miss valley and toward
northern lower. prevailing winds from the southwest, turning
modestly gusty during the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are forecast for the d21
airspace through tuesday night.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 250 am edt tue jun 30 2026

discussion...

southeast michigan now resides securely on the northern periphery of
a sizable heat dome, as the large-scale pattern remains governed by
a sprawling 594 to 596 dam subtropical ridge centered over the ohio
valley region. increasing depth and magnitude to southwest flow
around the western flank of the ridge axis effectively encasing the
region within a high magnitude thermal and moisture profile, as
evident by a projected 850 mb temperature of 23-25c and a dewpoint
encroaching on mid 70s at times. net result remains a prolonged
extreme heat event featuring near-record temperatures that gets
underway today and persists through at least thursday. an extreme
heat warning is now active across the region for this window.
ambient afternoon highs will consistently surge into the mid-to-
upper 90s, with a few locations testing the 100f mark. combined with
the elevated dewpoint, peak heat index values are forecast to range
between 105 and 110f. virtually no overnight relief anticipated
within this environment as minimum temperatures struggle to drop
below the mid-to-upper 70s. risk for organized convective
development remains very low across this period, given the highly
capped environment and unfavorable positioning to witness convection
growing upscale out of the dakotas and upper ms valley and across
the ridge periphery. a limited opportunity could emerge wednesday
across the saginaw valley and thumb, with a subset of the model
solution space initiating convection across northern lower during
this time.

by friday into the weekend, medium-range deterministic and ensemble
guidance continue to suggest the long wave pattern will undergo a
more notable shift. as the steering flow becomes more zonal along
the international border, successive shortwaves rounding the
northern periphery will gradually, yet effectively dampen, broaden
and suppress the ridge axis into the ohio valley. potential for heat
and humidity to remain elevated at least into friday with the
resident airmass slow to dislodge, before the downgrade in upper
heights combined with increased convective potential likely yields
more typical warmth and humidity for the holiday weekend. a more
receptive underlying environment will exist now for convective
development, but with the usual uncertainty at this time range
regarding potential timing and scale with strong dependence on the
mesoscale evolution upstream. further refinement of precipitation
chances are likely.

marine...

wind gradually veers to southwest today, allowing a warm front to
advance across lake huron today. as the hot and humid air mass
builds in, the gradient will maintain sw wind of 10 to 15 kt today
through thursday, with gusts generally capped around 20 kt due to
increased stability over the relatively cooler water. there will be
a chance for thunderstorms over lake huron today as the front lifts
through, but confidence is low on timing. areas of fog may develop
over the cooler open waters as well. additional storms wednesday and
thursday will be most likely to occur near northern lake huron where
the prevailing storm track will set up along the edge of the more
stable air to the south.

climate...

daily records for the upcoming week...

detroit
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 96 (1931) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 98 (1931) 80 (1931)
thu july 2 99 (2011) 76 (2018)
fri july 3 100 (1911) 78 (1911)
sat july 4 102 (2012) 79 (1921)

flint
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 98 (1933) 76 (2018)
wed july 1 102 (1931) 72 (2018)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1921) 73 (1983)
sat july 4 102 (1921) 76 (1999)

saginaw
record high record warm minimum
tue june 30 99 (1964) 77 (2018)
wed july 1 103 (1931) 78 (1931)
thu july 2 100 (1931) 73 (2002)
fri july 3 99 (1966) 76 (1974)
sat july 4 97 (2012) 75 (2012)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...extreme heat warning from noon today to 8 pm edt thursday for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mr
marine.......tf
climate......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.