Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
108
fxus61 kcle 151136
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
636 am est sun nov 15 2026

.what has changed...
extended rain chances across ne oh through tonight/very early
monday morning, but otherwise no major changes needed with this
update.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect snow showers are expected to continue through
today before tapering off tonight.

2) high pressure will build in for much of next week with
drier, seasonable weather expected. temperatures will likely
rise above normal by late next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper trough will linger over the eastern great lakes today
before pushing east tonight into early monday. this will result
in continued lake effect showers in ne oh/nw pa with periods of
wet snow mixing in with the rain early this morning. surface
temperatures will remain just above freezing so snow
accumulations are not expected. generally expect a downward
trend in shower coverage as the trough shifts east during the
today with only a slight chance (around 20%) of showers across
portions of ne oh into tonight. any lingering showers will taper
off by early monday morning as 850mb temperatures increase and
moisture decreases.

key message 2...
high pressure will build east across the region monday and
maintain influence over the local area as it slowly shifts east
throughout the workweek. this will result in dry weather through
at least friday. temperatures will be just a couple of degrees
below normal monday with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s
expected, however temperatures will gradually improve throughout
the week as warm air advection develops on the back side of the
high. by thursday and friday, highs will be in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, which is several degrees above normal for this time
of year. showers may return to the area as early as late
saturday as the next cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
overcast conditions with mvfr ceilings persist areawide through
today. lake effect rain showers continue across parts of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania today. periodic ifr
ceilings may be possible at kyng, kcak, and kmfd.

by tonight, clouds begin scattering out to the west, bringing
vfr conditions. lake effect showers continue but gradually
dissipate tonight, becoming light and isolated.

northwest winds around 6-9 knots become light and variable
tonight.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through monday in low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
north/northwest winds around 20 knots will continue in the
central basin of lake erie through early this morning before
flow over the lake diminishes to roughly 10 to 15 knots after
sunrise. small craft advisories will remain for the nearshore
waters of the central basin through late morning. from there,
much calmer marine conditions are anticipated as high pressure
builds over the lake. by monday morning, northwest winds will be
10 knots or less with surface winds becoming more southwesterly
by monday evening. winds in the open waters will likely increase
to 10 to 15 knots for a period on tuesday and tuesday night.
south/southwest winds will develop as the high drifts east on
thursday and the lake with deepening warm air advection causing
winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots. the highest winds/waves
will likely remain in the open waters during this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
lez145>148.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...saunders
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
122
fxus63 kiwx 151115
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 am est sun nov 15 2026

.key messages...

- some low clouds linger today with continued slightly below
normal high temperatures from 45 to 50.

- a moderating temperature trend expecting this week with a
return of above normal temperatures. the warmest days appear
to be thursday through saturday with many locations
experiencing highs in the low to mid 60s.

- mainly dry conditions are expected this week with some rain
chances returning by next weekend.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 am est sun nov 15 2026

another upper level vort max continues to drop south across the
great lakes region early this morning. moisture profiles have become
quite shallow over the past 24 hours with successive periods of mid
level dry air advection in the active short wave pattern. mainly dry
conditions are expected today, although cannot rule out some patchy
light drizzle accompanying passage of this vort max through daybreak
given the shallow moisture profiles in place and weak lingering low
level lift. continued northerly low level flow today and maintenance
of thin layer of higher rh beneath weak 5k ft based inversion will
likely keep good deal of low clouds around although pockets of
stronger mid level subsidence will allow for some sun in spots.
an expansive 1030mb anticyclone will continue to build in from
the mid ms river valley today which will weaken the low level
flow this afternoon resulting in poor mixing. poor mixing
combined with more of a neutral thermal advection pattern will
result in similar high temperatures today as observed yesterday
(perhaps just a little warmer).

backing and weakening of the low level flow tonight should
result in better opportunity for scattering low clouds, although
would not be surprised if spots, especially east of i-69 into
nw ohio maintain some low cloud cover as guidance continues to
hint at another weak mid/upper level perturbation backdooring
across the eastern great lakes. min temperatures are of lower
confidence tonight given this cloud cover dependency and just
hedged slightly cooler than model blended guidance.

monday should finally feature more aggressive positive mid
level height tendencies as upper midwest mid level ridge shifts
eastward. an associated weak low level westerly flow regime will
set up, but thermal gradients in this pattern are quite weak
with only modest low level warm advection developing. however,
monday will start a moderating trend that will continue into
the weekend.

guidance has been fairly consistent in a progressive eastern pacific
wave pattern, with the first of these more pronounced waves in
the late wednesday to thursday timeframe. moisture return of any
significance looks hard to come by at this time due to stubborn
se conus low/mid level ridging with better moisture transport
downstream of this short wave likely getting pinched off across
the southern and central plains. some elevated moisture return
is likely into the great lakes region late wednesday into
thursday but with bulk of forcing staying north of local area
this would probably be just a very light rain/sprinkle event if
anything, and confined to nw in/sw lower mi. this short wave
will not have a deep latitudinal connection and mid/upper
ridging should aggressively build back in for friday in advance
a more robust upper level short wave depicted in medium range
guidance. this should result in friday/saturday being the
warmest days of the period as broad warm sector develops from
ohio valley to the southern great lakes. highs these days should
reach low-mid 60s and possibly into upper 60s saturday
depending on timing of increasing cloud cover.

while medium range guidance is in good agreement with this wave
across western conus, a good deal of uncertainty arises for next
weekend regarding potential phasing with southern canadian branch of
westerlies. this will impact how far south better dynamics can reach
and the magnitude of northward extent of better low level moisture
transport. given at least large scale signal consensus in
medium range guidance, low to mid range chance shower pops have
been maintained for next weekend with potentially a cool down
back to near seasonable levels (briefly?) for early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 611 am est sun nov 15 2026

vfr conditions at the terminals for the most part, outside of
mvfr ceilings this morning at ksbn. kfwa sat on the very edge of
a bkn015-bkn025 cloud deck all night, which is shifting further
eastward as of this writing (ksmd has been around 1500 ft all
night). model guidance now appears to keep this cloud deck east
through the day, so shifted to a more optimistic forecast. it`s
possible ksbn could maintain bkn025-bkn030 for longer than
current forecast, but most of guidance improves ceilings to
3500-5000ft by late morning/early afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
879
fxus63 kdtx 151055
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
555 am est sun nov 15 2026

.key messages...

- cloudy skies today will clear tonight.

- dry weather expected area-wide monday through thursday with a
steady warming trend.

&&

.aviation...

a seasonably cool airmass in the wake of departing upper level low
pressure maintains lake effect clouds and lower ceilings for most of
today. low mvfr eventually lifts above 2 kft mid morning, but
ceilings persist until the afternoon or evening hours. surface high
pressure works southeastward into the ohio valley leading to
decreasing nnw gradient winds with time. vfr conditions emerge by
this evening as drier air descends into the cloud layer, and lake
moisture struggles to advect inland with backing/weakening low level
flow. periods of skc could emerge late tonight into monday morning,
but transient high cirrus may eventually disrupt such conditions.
surface winds are expected to back wsw late tonight into monday
morning as the surface high tracks through the ohio valley.

for dtw... persistent low level nnw flow maintains mvfr ceiling
until this evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet until this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 554 am est sun nov 15 2026

discussion...

cold troughing will fade today as one final lobe of 500mb absolute
vorticity pivots out of southeast michigan this morning and 1000-
500mb geopotential heights rise. both the plan view perspective of
moisture on isentropic surfaces and forecast soundings support
stratus/stratocumulus staying in place over the forecast area for
the daylight hours today with saturation at the base of the midlevel
subsidence inversion. classic representation of stratocumulus
downwind of the lake aggregate here in lower michigan. the cloud
will limit highs today in the middle 40s, some 5 degrees or so below
normal.

midlevel shortwave ridge feature is forecasted to build through the
state tonight before a much larger omega block then expands in
wavelength through eastern north america for much of the week.
center of mid to upper level high pressure tracks through southeast
michigan tonight setting the stage for a long duration of southwest
flow and subsequent warming. forecast soundings support dry weather
this week with a sub saturated air mass in the lowest 20.0 kft agl.
high temperatures this week are expected to top out in the middle
50s by tuesday (5-8 degrees above normal) and lower 60s by friday
and saturday (10-15 degrees above normal). southwest winds will
remain seasonally modest throughout much of the week with gradient
possibly supporting 20 to 30 mph by the end of the week.

marine...

cool northwesterly flow will persist tonight which maintains the
breezy conditions across lake huron. gusts ranging between 20 to 30
knots will be likely through midnight. lingering rain showers will
also be possible across the southern lake huron basin. high pressure
will then begin spreading across the great lakes tomorrow morning,
which will result in rapidly decreasing wind speeds in the morning
hours. by the late afternoon and evening hours, light winds will
have settled in as high pressure situates over the great lakes.
southwest flow will become established by monday once this high
pressure progresses east. this will bring some localized stronger
winds through the saginaw bay into central lake huron, but overall
dry weather and lighter wind speeds are expected into the midweek
period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...cb
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.