Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
154
fxus61 kcle 042020
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
320 pm est thu dec 4 2025

.synopsis...
an arctic cold front will sweep through the area early this
morning. high pressure will build in later today into friday.
another cold front will through the area on sunday. high
pressure will build in late sunday into monday.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
the cold front from this morning has cleared the area to the east
and high pressure will begin to build in from the west. ahead of the
high, winds will stay gusty, around 20-25 mph, but will start to
taper off as the high builds in. additionally, cloud cover will
start to clear for the majority of the region with the influx of
drier low level moisture. there are a few spots along and downwind
of the snowbelt that may have some prolonged cloud coverage due to
northwesterly flow across the lake and, for areas in pennsylvania
primarily, a connection from lake huron. with high pressure moving
in, it will bring in much colder temperatures this evening and
overnight tonight. locations across the cwa have struggled to warm
even after clearing and have been around 20-25f throughout the day
with wind chills in the low teens to single digits. temperatures
will continue to drop as the high pressure moves overhead overnight
tonight with efficient radiational cooling. overnight lows tonight
will be down into the single digits for much of the region with
locations near the lakeshore staying around 10f. winds will be light
with the high overhead, but with any light wind, wind chills will
drop down below 5f with locations in the i-75 corridor and higher
elevations being near zero or just below. there is potential that
some locations may reach record low temperatures tonight.

high pressure will drift off to the east by friday morning and there
will be some southerly flow across the region that will warm
temperatures up into upper 20s to low 30s for daytime highs with
mostly sunny skies. friday night lows will be warmer than the
previous night, but still chilly with lows down into the upper teens
to low 20s.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
a shortwave will be moving through the region on saturday that
could bring a chance for scattered snow showers across the
region along a surface cold front. precipitation chances will be
on the low end for the majority of the cwa, though there will
be potential for lake effect snow showers throughout the day and
into early sunday. accumulation will be minimal across the
snowbelt with totals around an inch or less. ahead of the cold
front, temperatures will be able to warm up into the mid 30s,
which will bring a chance for a rain/snow mix during the
afternoon into the early evening. colder air will arrive after
frontal passage and any precipitation that falls will be in the
form of snow. on sunday, there will be a stronger shortwave
moving through the region that will have a better shot at
widespread snow showers across the region, though areas within
the primary and secondary snowbelts will have the better chance
of some light accumulations. there will be some northwesterly
flow behind this feature that could bring scattered lake effect
snow showers to northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania
through late sunday night. overnight lows for sunday night will
be back down into the mid to low teens with some isolated spots
of single digits.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
a similar pattern will continue through the long term as the upper
level ridge across the southwestern conus and upper level
troughing over the hudson bay persists. high pressure will
build in briefly on monday behind the cold front from the
weekend with dry weather expected to start the week. models have
shown a series of shortwaves moving through the region starting
tuesday through the middle of the week. there is less agreement
for the system on tuesday, but a majority of the long range
models have a stronger clipper system moving through on
wednesday that could bring a shot for light snow accumulation
across the region. temperatures in the long term will continue
to be below average with the current pattern in place.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
w`erly flow aloft and very subtle, embedded disturbances affect
northern oh and nw pa through 18z/fri. at the surface, a ridge
continues to impact our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from the upper ms valley to atlantic waters near
cape cod. nw`erly to n`erly surface winds around 5 to 10 knots
are expected to become light and variable or calm during the
22z/thurs hour. however, a s`erly land breeze around 5 to 10
knots is expected to develop along and within several miles of
lake erie, including kcle and keri, after ~01z/fri. after
~14z/fri, surface winds become s`erly to sw`erly around 5 to 15
knots region-wide.

vfr visibility and primarily dry weather are expected through
18z/fri. isolated lake-effect snow flurries streaming se`ward
from lake erie across ne oh and nw pa should dissipate by
21z/thurs. scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli with
bases near 3kft to 4kft agl will dissipate from west to east
over northern oh and nw pa this evening through the first couple
hours of fri morning as the ridge at/near the surface builds
e`ward, which will cause mean low-level flow over/downwind of
lake erie to veer gradually from nw`erly to s`erly. in addition,
scattered cumuli are expected through ~21z/thurs and after
~15z/fri.

outlook...periodic snow and/or rain showers with non-vfr are
expected this saturday through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory in effect for u.s. nearshore waters:
- until 5 pm est today from avon point, oh to geneva-on-the-lake, oh
- until 7 pm today from geneva-on-the-lake to ripley, ny

a high pressure ridge affects lake erie through friday night as the
embedded high pressure center moves from near the upper ms valley to
atlantic waters near nova scotia. nw`erly winds around 10 to 20
knots this afternoon become variable in direction and ease to around
5 to 10 knots this evening. accordingly, waves as large as 3 to 6
feet this afternoon subside to 3 feet or less by 7 pm est this
evening and to 2 feet or less by midnight tonight. during the
predawn hours of friday morning through daybreak saturday, winds are
expected to become primarily s`erly to sw`erly and freshen gradually
to around 15 to 25 knots as the aforementioned ridge exits slowly
e`ward and interacts with a trough along a cold front that will
approach from the north-central u.s. and eventually the western
great lakes. the s`erly to sw`erly winds should trend strongest over
the open u.s. waters. waves should build gradually to as large as 3
to 7 feet and trend largest in open u.s. waters given forecast
fetch. a small craft advisory may be needed.

on saturday, the cold front will sweep generally se`ward across lake
erie. the front`s passage will cause s`erly to sw`erly winds around
15 to 25 knots to veer to w`erly to nw`erly and ease to around 5 to
15 knots as a ridge attempts to build from the north-central u.s.
waves as large as 3 to 7 feet ahead of the front will subside
gradually to 3 feet or less by midnight sunday morning, behind the
front. on sunday, the front should waver in a north-south manner in
the lake erie region as a low wobbles ene`ward from the east-central
great plains to the northeast u.s. and strengthens slightly.
primarily w`erly to n`erly winds should freshen gradually from
around 5 to 15 knots to as strong as 15 to 25 knots. however, winds
may shift to s`erly to sw`erly for a time over at least southern
portions of the lake, but this will depend on the progression of the
front. waves should be 3 feet or less through sunday afternoon and
then build to as large as 4 to 6 feet sunday evening, which would
prompt another small craft advisory.

on monday, a ridge should build from the upper ms valley through
about midday. in response, nw`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots
should veer to n`erly to ne`erly and ease gradually to 5 to 10
knots. this ridge should then exit generally e`ward during the rest
of monday and allow a warm front to sweep ne`ward across lake erie.
accordingly, n`erly to ne`erly winds will veer to s`erly to sw`erly
and freshen gradually to around 10 to 20 knots. based on the wind
and fetch forecast, waves as large as 4 to 6 feet monday morning,
should subside to 3 feet or less for monday afternoon and evening.

on tuesday, s`erly to sw`erly winds should freshen further to around
20 to 30 knots as the ridge continues to exit gradually e`ward, a
deepening low moves generally e`ward across the northern great lakes
and vicinity, the low`s trailing cold front approaches lake erie
from the northwest, and the ridge and low interact with one another.
waves should build to as large as 5 to 10 feet, with the largest
waves expected in open u.s. waters east of the islands. will
continue to monitor this part of the forecast for the need of a
small craft advisory.

&&

.climate...
near-record cold low temperatures are expected in portions of our
region tomorrow morning, especially farther inland from lake
erie. here are the record cold low temperatures for december
5th:

toledo: -2f (1976)
mansfield: 1f (1957)
cleveland: 2f (1871)
akron: 7f (1991)
youngstown: 9f (1991)
erie, pa: -2f (1886)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for lez146-
147.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez148-
149.

&&

$$

synopsis...23
near term...23
short term...23
long term...23
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka
climate...cle

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
891
fxus63 kiwx 042057
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
357 pm est thu dec 4 2025

.key messages...

- very cold low temperatures near zero overnight tonight with
wind chills of -5 to -15 degrees.

- patchy freezing fog possible mainly south and west of the
us-30 and us-31 intersection.

- light lake effect snow showers late friday through saturday
should total an inch or less accumulation accompanied by few
if any impacts. some freezing drizzle may once again mix in.

- periods of light snow is likely at times sunday through the
rest of this upcoming week. the snow may be mixed with rain.
some minor impacts are possible.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 235 pm est thu dec 4 2025

the main issue for the short term is the very cold air that will
continue to spill into the area tonight into tomorrow morning
with low temperatures dropping into the single digits to near
zero degrees. light winds will also create wind chills from -5
to -15 degrees. there also is the potential overnight for some
patchy freezing fog to develop for our southwestern portions of
the cwa mainly south and west of the us-30 and us-31
intersection. with the cold temperatures tonight take proper
precautions to keep your pets and livestock safe and wear warm
clothing that minimizes any exposed skin as frostbite would not
take long with the cold temperatures we will see.

temperatures do moderate fairly quickly tomorrow with a zonal
flow aloft and some slight synoptic warming. highs will still
only get into the mid 20s tomorrow. a weak shortwave moving
eastward through the westerly flow will bring a bit more warming
on saturday with highs flirting with the freezing mark. this
disturbance will also bring some snow showers mainly near lake
michigan with a bit of lake enhancement but accumulations/impacts
will be minor with snowfall less than 1 inch expected into
sunday afternoon. some freezing drizzle will possibly mix in
with the snow showers due to the warmer lake waters modifying
the boundary level. highs on sunday will be slightly cooler with
highs in the upper 20s. however, another reinforcing shot of
arctic air will spill in behind this disturbance and lows on
monday morning will again return to the single digits and fairly
light winds would bring wind chills around -5 degrees. monday
high temperatures will only get into the upper teens to around
the 20 degree mark. tuesday morning will also be cold with lows
slightly warmer than on monday with temperatures around 6 to 10
degrees above zero.

a trough will push eastward through the area beginning late
monday into tuesday bringing chances for light snow across the
area. at least a couple inches of snowfall would be possible
with this system. southerly flow ahead of the system will advect
some warmer temperatures into the area and highs on tuesday will
get into the lower 30s. another system will quickly move into
the area in the wake of tuesday`s disturbance and this system
will originate further south across the plains and further keep
temperatures around freezing to mid 30s. this will allow for
some rain to mix in with the snowfall.

thursday a colder airmass will again push into the region in the
wake of the trough passage. highs on thursday will be back into
the mid 20s and residual snow showers will be expected.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1128 am est thu dec 4 2025

lake clouds at ksbn may briefly settle into high mvfr for a time
this afternoon. vfr with light winds otherwise as high pressure
moves into the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 3 pm friday to 11 am est saturday
for lmz043.
small craft advisory from 3 pm friday to 4 am est saturday for
lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
945
fxus63 kdtx 042039
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
339 pm est thu dec 4 2025

.key messages...

- frigid wind chills tonight falling in the negative single
digits. low teens wind chills friday afternoon.

- below normal temperatures persist this weekend and into next week.

- the next chances for light snow will be friday night/saturday
morning and sunday. sunday holds a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.discussion...

a arctic airmass has settled over the great lakes with the expected
frigid temperatures this afternoon. temperatures in the teens to low
20s with single digit wind chills are expected to hold through the
remainder of the afternoon even under sunny skies. any isolated
lake clouds this afternoon will diminish as light winds back out of
the south tonight with mainly high clouds moving in across the north.
the mostly clear skies brings opportunity for overnight lows to
plummet down into the single digits with some spots towards the
southern border falling below zero degrees. the light wind brings
wind chills down into the negative single digits.

surface high pressure slides to the east tomorrow allowing a
southwest wind to draw in a slightly warmer airmass. still expect
daytime highs tomorrow to top out around the mid 20s with a 10 to 20
mph wind resulting in wind chills in the teens. height falls arrive
over the great lakes friday night bringing the next chance to see
snowfall. relatively weak lift will reach southeast michigan with
the better forcing to the north of the cwa and moisture depth will
be lacking with pwats to a quarter inch and specific humidity of 2.2
to 2.4 g/kg. a dusting up to around a half inch looks possible and
favored across locations north of i-69 through saturday morning.
model soundings and local probability guidance does point towards a
low potential for freezing drizzle towards sunrise saturday morning
as dry air strips any moisture from the dgz ahead of a cold front.
confidence remains low and will continue to monitor trends for any
impactful period of freezing drizzle.

temperatures may rebound to the low-mid 30s for daytime highs
saturday with drier conditions saturday evening. the passing cold
front will send temperatures back down into the 20s for highs on
sunday for bulk of the area. another wave tracking across the great
lakes on sunday bringing the next chance for accumulating snowfall.
the renewed colder airmass will bring high confidence in an all snow
p-type. trends have been increasing for snow accumulation with
latest probability guidance for achieving 1 inch over 12 hours up
toward 50 percent in parts of southeast michigan. overall totals for
this event should stay on the light side as moisture depth is still
limited. high pressure keeps conditions largely quiet during the
early week as below average temperatures persist. active weather
pattern holds into mid-week that brings more accumulating snowfall
potential.

&&

.marine...

high pressure building across the area this afternoon is leading to
rapidly improving conditions across the waters as northwesterly
winds weaken. there will be a lull in winds this evening into
tonight when winds drop to around 20 knots but this will be short
lived as there will be another round of increased southwesterly
winds starting late tonight into friday morning ahead of the next
system. this system will track through ontario and will pull a cold
front through early saturday. another round of small craft
advisories for saginaw bay have been issued as southwesterly winds
again increase to around 30 knots. could see a few gusts to 35 knot
gales over central lake huron friday, but should be isolated enough
to avoid mentioning gales in the forecast at this point. guidance
did pretty well with the winds the last two days which lends to
increased confidence with this next event.

&&

.climate...

the record low max temps for thursday, december 4th.

detroit: 23 degrees (set in 1895)
flint: 23 degrees (set in 1935)
saginaw: 22 degrees (set in 1991)

the record low min temps for friday, december 5th.

detroit: 6 degrees (set in 1974)
flint: 6 degrees (set in 1991)
saginaw: 6 degrees (set in 1991)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1225 pm est thu dec 4 2025

aviation...

northwesterly moisture transport off lake michigan has struggled to
reach se mi due to the magnitude of dry arctic air in place.
satellite obs have recently shown some better release of low vfr
stratocu over northern lower mi so flipped bkn tempo mention to
prevailing for mbs. otherwise, not expecting more than sct (at very
best) for the remainder taf sites this afternoon/evening. building
high pressure promotes diminishing winds through the rest of the day
as well as clearing low cloud by late evening; though some degree of
high cirrus likely persists.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

small craft advisory from 4 am friday to 4 am est saturday for
lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......drk
climate......tf
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.