Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
621 am est mon feb 2 2026

.what has changed...
widespread minor snow accumulations with minimal impacts are
expected today. thus, increased pop`s to 60%. the rest of the
forecast remains largely unchanged. additional widespread
accumulating snow is still forecast this thursday night through
friday, but exact accumulations and related impacts remain
uncertain.

&&

.key messages...
1) below-normal temperatures are expected to persist through
this upcoming weekend.

2) periods of accumulating snow are expected today through
tuesday and again this friday through weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
net troughing aloft, associated with an abnormally-cold air
mass, remains entrenched over eastern canada and will impact at
least most of the eastern united states through this upcoming
week, including northern oh and nw pa. accordingly, below-normal
temperatures are expected to persist in our cwa. for context,
our normal highs are near 35f and normal lows are near 20f this
time of year. at the surface, a ridge exits slowly from our
region and toward the northeast united states through tonight
before a weak cold front sweeps e`ward through our region on
tuesday. behind the front, another ridge builds from the north-
central united states and vicinity through wednesday night. net
low-level waa ahead of the front will contribute to daytime
highs reaching the 20`s today and tomorrow, respectively.
wednesday`s daytime highs should reach the upper teens to lower
20`s in the net low-level caa regime behind the cold front.
overnight lows should be near 15f to 20f around daybreak tuesday
and reach mainly the single digits above 0f around daybreak
wednesday and thursday, respectively. the ridge should exit
slowly e`ward thursday through thursday night before an arctic
front sweeps se`ward through our region on friday. low-level
waa on the backside of the ridge and ahead of the front should
contribute to daytime highs reaching the 20`s on thursday and
overnight lows near 10f to 15f thursday night. friday should be
the "warmest" day of the week with highs reaching the upper 20`s
to lower 30`s before the arctic front passage. behind the
front, an arctic ridge should affect our region through sunday
as the core of the ridge moves from the north-central states
toward the northeast united states. for example, widespread sub-
zero minimum wind chills should occur this saturday and sunday.

key message 2...
widespread light snow, associated with weak, moist isentropic
ascent preceding the axis of a shortwave trough aloft, is
expected to traverse our region from west to east today,
between about mid-morning and late evening. this snow should
last for several hours at a given location and total one inch or
less. behind the widespread snow, a sufficiently-cold/moist
low-level air mass may allow limited lake-effect snow (les) to
develop over mainly ice-covered lake erie and stream generally
e`ward across far-ne oh and nw pa this evening through daybreak
tuesday amidst w`erly mean low-level flow. additional accumulations
from this les should be one inch or less. during the day on
tuesday, additional periods of light snow are expected due, in
part to the following: the release of weak potential instability
in the lowest ~1 km agl via convergence/moist ascent along the
above-mentioned surface cold front; moist isentropic ascent
ahead of the axis of another e`ward-moving shortwave trough
aloft. additional snow accumulations from this activity should
be one inch or less.

current odds favor dry weather tuesday night through thursday
based on the aforementioned projected weather pattern evolution
at the surface and aloft. during thursday night through friday,
additional widespread snow is expected due to the following:
moist isentropic ascent ahead of a se`ward-moving shortwave
trough axis aloft; the release of weak/shallow surface-based
potential instability via convergence/moist ascent along the
arctic front. exact accumulations from this round of snow remain
uncertain. however, latest nbm probabilities for at least one
inch of snow are 70% or greater across nw pa, ne oh, and much of
north-central oh, while probabilities are lower farther west.
the largest probabilities for at least 4" of snow in our cwa
are around 30% to 40% in ne oh and nw pa. we will continue to
monitor trends in nwp model guidance in the coming days.

during friday night through this upcoming weekend, periodic and
scattered les showers should target our cwa amidst a mainly
nw`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air
over/downwind of the primarily ice-free waters of lake michigan
and any ice-free waters of lakes huron and erie. given the
expectation of extensive ice cover on lakes erie and huron, les
intensity and amounts should be limited.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
areawide vfr conditions will gradually deteriorate as
widespread light snow showers and low-level cloud cover move
overhead from the west. expect vfr ceilings to drop to mvfr
across terminals late this morning into this afternoon from west
to east. widespread light snow showers may occasionally drop
visibilities to the mvfr/ifr range. can`t rule out ifr ceilings
persisting late tonight across southern terminals
(kmfd/kcak/kyng). southerly to southwesterly winds will remain
in the 5-10 knot range through the taf period.

outlook...periods of non-vfr expected in low-level clouds and/or
snow showers through thursday. non-vfr likely thursday night
into friday as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.marine...
extensive ice cover on lake erie (~95%) will continue to thicken
through the week as persistent cold temperatures remain in place.
winds will generally remain southwesterly at 8-12 knots today and
tonight before turning northwesterly on tuesday as a cold front
pushes east across the lake. high pressure builds across the region
allowing for northwesterly winds 5-10 knots to continue tuesday
through wednesday afternoon. winds remain light at 5-10 knots out of
the west wednesday afternoon through early thursday. westerly winds
increase to 15-20 knots by thursday evening ahead of a deepening low
pressure system tracking through the great lakes region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
648 am est mon feb 2 2026

.key messages...
- a system moves through providing less than 1 inch of new snow
to the area. some freezing drizzle may mix in spots with a
light glaze possible.

- a system may bring light snow to areas south of us-30 tonight
into tuesday.

- not quite as cold this week with highs in the 20s and lows in
the teens to single-digits.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 258 am est mon feb 2 2026

an 850 mb theta-e plume paired with an area of waa traverses the
area today as a low pressure forms to the north of the great lakes
and pushes an occluded front through. initial reports out of il
indicate areas of freezing drizzle mixing in with snow and the
models bear this out as dgz saturation appears to struggle,
especially on the back end of the frontal passage. the main area of
omega pushes through between 9 and 18z and most of that appears to
reside within the dgz, which is saturated, at least the bottom part
of it is and that may lower slr. dgz saturation already appears to
drop off around 12z in western areas as the backside of the moisture
plume begins to move through from west to east. a thin area of low
level moisture remains in the low levels resembling stratus and it
is questionable if there`s enough lift to force freezing drizzle,
halting precipitation instead. however, the backside of the front
appears to be the best chance for the freezing drizzle, if it
occurs at all.

behind this front, the vort max causing the sfc low over the
northern great lakes dives southeast and brings a shortwave eastward
along its southwestern periphery. the nam, during this time, has a
boundary moving southward through mi from 12z to 21z tuesday.
inversion heights from lake enhancement appear to be marginal at
only 3 to 4 kft and delta ts are only 10c. meanwhile, theta-e
instability is also marginal and the moisture column leaves a lot
to be desired.

away from lake mi, the aforementioned shortwave along the upper
low`s periphery forces a low pressure system that, by tuesday,
phased low pressure in the tennessee river valley creates a precip
shield that could graze our southern tier of counties. model
certainty has about a 20 percent chance at 0.5 inch or greater
snowfall and there is not one model that is completely devoid of
snow across the area (many have 0.1 inch of snow). the nam is
producing the most snow at 1 to 3 inches across our southern tier of
counties (white to jay). the northern periphery of the precip shield
is known to run into saturation problems, but that`s usually when
the surface high is just to the north of the low. this time the
surface high is trailing the low, back in the northern plains.

it is interesting seeing a good amount of models creating what
appears to be lake effect snow tuesday night into wednesday, but
there`s quite a bit of typical ingredients for les that are missing.
trajectories appear to be more northeasterly with much more of the
low level moisture just west of the area in lot`s area, which is
also where the better theta-e instability resides. that is until we
get to after 9z wednesday as trajectories take a more northwesterly
direction. still the theta-e instability is not all that great as it
moves onshore during the day wednesday. delta ts appear to be around
10 to 15c and inversion heights are around 4 kft during this time.
will continue the slight chance mention, but it does appear to be
light snow if it does happen.

dry weather follows for thursday with some mid level ridging evident
and surface pressure passing through.

we`ll, then, have to watch the thursday night into friday period as
another clipper system dives down through the great lakes region.
the cold airmass that moves through in conjunction with that system
is much colder on the gfs and is closer in lined with what we just
got out of with 850 mb temperatures around -20c. the airmass behind
the clipper is warmer and much more transient on the ecmwf so that
by sunday, we`re back into the above freezing air at 850 mb (not so
on the gfs). it does look possible to see a period of les take over
later friday into saturday. we also approach cold weather advisory
wind chills saturday morning and so that will have to watched.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 638 am est mon feb 2 2026

mvfr/ifr in cigs/vsbys through 01z tue for ksbn and through 08z
tue for kfwa with a disturbance moving through the area followed
by lowered cigs. did make mention of some light freezing drizzle
mixing in behind these initial snow showers for both sites,
mainly between 12z and 16z for ksbn and 14z and 17z for kfwa.
vfr conditions look to return to ksbn after 01z tue and after
08z tue for kfwa. winds out of the s-sw veering towards the
w-sw through the taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
443 am est mon feb 2 2026

.key messages...

- high-end to likely chances (50-60%) for snow showers this morning
to early afternoon. snow accumulations hold under an inch, likely
a dusting to a half-inch.

- below normal temperatures persist through most of the week.

- next likely chance for accumulating snow arrives thursday night
through friday.

&&

.aviation...

upstream obs and radar supports very light snow arriving 11z-14z.
all sites should experience a period of mvfr/possible brief ifr snow
mid-late morning, with a dusting to perhaps half an inch of
accumulation by the time the snow tapers off early afternoon. light
southwest winds becoming westerly this evening and lingering low
level moisture within a surface trough will sustain low clouds
(mvfr/low vfr) and possible scattered flurries/light snow showers
into tonight, particularly over the northern sites of mbs/fnt.

for dtw...very light snow on track to arrive close to 13z, with
cigs/visibilities then quickly lowering into mvfr. the light
accumulating snow tapers off by early afternoon, with perhaps a
flurry or two the rest of the day into tonight. would not rule
enough enough dry air working in this evening and tonight to allow
for periods of ceiling free/scattered clouds. better chance of mvfr
cigs and flurries tuesday morning as a secondary surface trough/weak
low level convergence passes through.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 feet today, medium tonight.

* high for ptype as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 329 am est mon feb 2 2026

discussion...

a weak shortwave and extended pv filament is moving across western
great lakes into the central great lakes this morning. increasing
cloud cover will arrive first with a period of light snowfall to
follow. snowfall will move across southeast michigan from west to
east between 7 am this morning to about 1-2 pm this afternoon. the
resident dry airmass and overall weak forcing with this trough will
limit total snowfall accumulations through this afternoon. meager qpf
on the order of trace amounts to a couple hundredths should keep
accumulations below an inch with most areas seeing a dusting to a
half inch snow accumulation.

veering low level flow turns out of the west with the passing of the
trough opening the door for lake effect off of lake michigan into
the evening. instability/low level lapse rates are not conducive to a
strong lake enhanced response, but mid-level subsidence should
support flurries during the late afternoon and evening. confidence
is pretty low to see much in the way of accumulation.

a secondary shortwave trough swinging into the central/northern
great lakes early tomorrow will offer another shot at flurry/light snow
activity along a southward sagging weak cold front. frontal boundary
becomes more diffuse as it progresses south of i-69, so best chance
for light snow shower will be north of i-69 prior to 7 am with a
chance of flurries for most of southeast michigan through the
remainder of tuesday morning into the early afternoon. continued lack
of moisture precludes mention of any snowfall accumulation at this
time.

surface high pressure builds into the region mid-week while the
region remains under the influence of the cold thermal trough.
little change in the airmass wednesday and thursday will keep
daytime high temperatures in the 20s, similar to today/tuesday.
persistent low level flow out of the northwest will bring at least
some potential to see occasional insignificant flurries.

a deeper trough will emerge out of hudson bay with a weak clipper
system out ahead of it thursday night into friday. this will bring
the next chance for a widespread light snow accumulation.
accumulations still depend on the exact placement and strength of
the associated low, which still has some variation in the ensemble
space. latest nbm guidance maintains a general 50-70% chance to
achieve 1 inch of snowfall for much of southeast michigan over the
course of friday. an arctic cold front will then come crashing
through the great lakes with 850 mb temperatures plummeting to -20c
and below by 00z saturday. this will again lead to lake effect snow
shower activity friday night into the weekend. the airmass will
support low temperatures down to around zero degrees saturday morning
with wind chills currently forecast to -10 degrees and below.
temperatures will only rise into the teens for saturday afternoon
with a similar story for sunday morning and afternoon.

marine...

winds organize from the southwest and strengthen through the morning
towards 15-20kts as a weak clipper arrives over the great lakes. low
slides over the central great lakes latter half of the day bringing
scattered light snow showers. winds back to the northwest late this
evening with the departure of the low with most waters seeing gusts
remaining in the 15-20kt range, though some lower 20kt gusts are
possible over northern lake huron given the favorable fetch. high
pressure dropping out of canada then expands over the region through
midweek promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.