Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 280719
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
319 am edt mon sep 28 2026

.what has changed...
rain no longer expected on thursday, with pops trending higher
late thursday night into friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather continues with temperatures rising to to upper
70s and low 80s wednesday and thursday.

2) rain showers return thursday night into friday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to build into the area, becoming
centered over the lower great lakes region on tuesday. dry and
seasonable weather is expected to continue.

southwest flow develops on the backside of the departing high on
wednesday, with above normal temperatures expected on wednesday
and thursday as highs rise to the upper 70s wednesday afternoon
and around 80 thursday afternoon.

key message 2...
a weakening southern-stream disturbance over the southwest will
become increasingly sheared through midweek, with associated
moisture spreading northeastward within strengthening
southwesterly flow. a northern-stream trough crossing ontario
thursday into friday will drive a cold front across the region.
the combination of increasing moisture and frontal forcing
should result in increasing shower changes thursday night into
friday.

model guidance continues to trend towards a slower system with a
lower qpf solution. thursday is now expected to be dry with rain
showers with most of the mainstream global nwp starting to bring
rain showers into the northern and western parts of the forecast
area thursday night. the ai models, including the ecwmf aifs and
aigfs have slower solutions and have tended to outperform their
physically derived counterparts (gfs/ecmwf), so would expect
the forecast to continue trending drier thursday night with a
better chance of rain showers on friday instead. overall qpf is
likely to be light (most model guidance at or less than 0.5"
qpf) and thunderstorms are very unlikely due to the lack of
instability expected.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
vfr will continue across most of the region today and tonight as
high pressure remains anchored across the great lakes. however,
a mid-level cloud deck will move in from the east and lower
across far eastern ohio and western pa this morning into the
afternoon. this will bring mvfr to kcak, kyng, and keri. there
are some hints at some ifr cigs, especially at keri later this
morning, but confidence is not high enough to put in the taf, so
kept things mvfr at this time. this cloud deck should exit this
evening, with all sites returning to vfr.

otherwise, brief periods of fog and mist could bring ifr to lifr
conditions to kmfd and kyng early this morning, but it should
not be as widespread as yesterday morning given the increasing
clouds. n winds will average 5-10 knots today and tonight.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. non-
vfr possible in scattered showers on thursday and friday.

&&

.marine...
as north winds diminish, 2-3 ft waves this morning will improve
to nearly calm conditions by late this afternoon. these
conditions will continue through at least tuesday evening as
high pressure remains overhead.

southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots develops tuesday night as
high pressure departs to the east, continuing through wednesday
night. flow strengthens to 15 to to 20 knots and becomes
southwesterly on thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...garuckas
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 281014
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
614 am edt mon sep 28 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions persist through at least tuesday, and quite
possibly wednesday, with slowly moderating temperatures.

- the next chance (50-70%) of rain arrives on thursday.
thunderstorms are possible but severe weather and heavy rain
are not expected.

- confidence in the forecast beyond thursday is low but it does
appear to trend toward cooler and drier weather returning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 122 am edt mon sep 28 2026

the area is bookended by two areas of vorticity to start this
monday, but the stalled pattern shears out the vorticity to our west
and the nor`easter over the northeast pushes out to sea during the
day today. this leaves the area under surface high pressure and mid
level ridging suppressing activity and keeping the area dry today.
this continues a 3 day streak of seeing minrh values reach 30
percent overhead indicating how dry it has gotten each day. we
securely reached into the 70s for highs on sunday and much of our
southwest zones and portions of nw oh saw 75f highs. this
combination of dry air and seasonable highs is expected to continue
for today with another day of low to mid 70s for highs (some areas
may stretch into the upper 70s) and dew points in the 50s that
may attempt to mix back into the 40s during peak heating. the
one thing that could stop mixing today is some high clouds
overhead.

at the same time, a trough moves into the western us and pushes
eastward. the northern stream trough shears out from the southern
stream and a cutoff low forms across the southwest. this causes the
stronger vorticity to pass by north of the area where the better jet
dynamics reside. this allows another dry day for tuesday and helps
trend wednesday away from being wet to more of a dry day. nam bufkit
soundings at beh indicate a very dry layer below 850 mb through all
of wednesday.

for thursday into friday, the upper low in central canada pushes a
trough southeastward and this helps push the sheared out vorticity
into the area. this also pushes better moisture content into the
area and so confidence is higher on finally getting a return to
rain. even still, surface moisture doesn`t appear as hydrated as it
could be, instability is very low, and the trough is rather
progressive through the day thursday indicating rain that doesn`t
appear all that heavy.

now that that trough is through the area by day`s end friday, the
cutoff low down in the southwest doesn`t have the necessary kick to
get it up to the area and so it continues to remain down in the
southwest. there is uncertainty between the gfs and ecmwf on whether
to bring the energy/moisture from this low northward this weekend.
even the aigfs is between the two in a camp closer to the cmc, which
brings it into the area early, but keeps it south of the storm track
of the ecmwf.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 612 am edt mon sep 28 2026

mid level ridging and surface high pressure keeps the area dry
and in vfr through the taf period. given the placement of the
surface high, trajectories will be out of the north for most of
the forecast period and will stay less than 10 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt /9 am cdt/ this morning for
inz012-013-020-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 281000
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
600 am edt mon sep 28 2026

.key messages...

- dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into wednesday.

- areas of dense fog expected this morning and tuesday morning.

- rain chances increase during the latter half of the week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.aviation...

fog and low stratus concerns repeat this morning after clear night
skies and weak northerly flow ducting lake huron moisture into the
nocturnal boundary-layer. the ongoing plume should become more
diffuse with time as it broadens upon reaching the southern
terminals. ceilings/visibilities have been observed at/below 200 ft
/ 1/2 sm already, but goes imagery already shows some improvement in
conditions. opted for ifr conditions outside of mbs until 13z, while
tempo-ing in lifr conditions for fnt/ptk. conditions should improve
rapidly mid-morning with prevailing vfr the rest of the day light
hours, and only a bit of boundar-layer cloud through the diurnal
cycle, beneath transient high cirrus. flow should largely remain aob
10 knots today from the north. another round of early morning fog is
possible early tuesday under a similar setup.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling/visibility at/below 200 ft / 1/2 sm. this
morning, and again early tuesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 am edt mon sep 28 2026

discussion...

fog development is following a similar temporal cadence to yesterday
as noted via nighttime microphysics rgb. the geographic footprint of
the fog plume, however, is taking on a more southerly drift given
the backed wind direction in comparison to yesterday while also
showing signs of mechanical turbulence. nonetheless, likely to see
another localized area of dense fog for the thumb areas and
northeast suburbs as winds go calmer toward daybreak. mos guidance
is also still on track for another round of fog tuesday morning, and
more bullish than the past few days as remnant moisture from the
deformation axis wraps around the high pressure center. this
coincides with the high pressure center moving overhead which will
minimize gradient flow for optimized radiative cooling/fog
potential. fog lifts and mixes out by mid-morning both today and
tuesday, extending the stretch of dry and seasonable fall weather
for se michigan. daytime highs both days expected to peak in the low-
mid 70s under plenty of sunshine.

a pattern shift begins tuesday on the western flank of the high
noted by a wind shift to the southwest. this leads to modest thermal
advection that peaks tuesday night, boosting h8 temperatures from 10
c to 15 c by wednesday morning. the first round of mid-level height
falls approaches early wednesday to bring thickening mid-level cloud
to the region. by this point the east coast system will be dislodged
and the low levels will be characterized by the western flank of
broad eastern conus high pressure. this will be quite effective in
stalling low level moisture transport to our west through much of
the day wednesday, keeping the majority of se michigan dry but
cloudy with virga. the trend toward a drier forecast wednesday also
boosts the temperature forecast for wednesday, with highs expected
to climb into the mid-upper 70s.

rain chances then increase wednesday night and persist through at
least thursday as northern stream troughing phases with the broad
deformation/trough axis over central conus. the low level height
field tightens quickly wednesday night as the trough approaches,
leading to strengthening llj winds to about 50 knots by thursday
morning. on its own this causes breezy sw flow across se michigan
thursday where gusts to 25 mph are possible. the enhanced sw flow
will also enhanced moisture transport into lower michigan, which
will be engaged by the deformation and approaching frontal forcing
to bring rain to the region thursday. forcing will be defined
primarily by deformation and waa while lapse rates stay moist
adiabatic, so expecting a light-moderate stratiform nature to
thursday`s rain chances. that said, the impressive moisture axis
(pwat nearly 2.0") will take most of the day to sink south across
lower michigan which could grind out 0.50-0.75" when all is said and
done. that said, preceding dry weather and long duration rainfall
limits flooding concerns with this rain.

a meaningful cool down is then expected friday into the weekend post-
front, with showers tapering off friday. there is still some
uncertainty as to how aggressively high pressure pushes in behind
the fropa, which keeps low rain chances going through friday.
temperature prospects for the weekend carry higher confidence, with
highs only reaching the mid 60s and lows back into the 40s to start
october.

marine...

high pressure to hold over the great lakes through tomorrow. this
will cap wind gusts to or below 15 knots for most locations. wind
direction will mainly hold from the north to northwest today but
will back to the south to southwest tomorrow after the passage of a
warm front. the next chance for rain and possible some thunderstorms
will return wednesday and thursday ahead of and along a cold front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...mv
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.