Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 140857
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
357 am est sat feb 14 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes made to the previous forecast. the weather
pattern continues to look more active with multiple opportunities
for light rain from wednesday through friday.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures are expected across the local area
today and will persist through the week. the snowpack across the
region will melt during this time.

2) the weather pattern becomes more active during the second half of
the week with multiple rounds of light rain possible between
wednesday and friday. rises on area rivers could increase the
potential for localized ice jams to develop.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

heights rebound across the area today as a ridge builds east through
the ohio valley. weak warm advection continues with southerly
surface winds and a continued moderation of the airmass.
temperatures will tend to be in the mid to upper 40s over the
weekend with locally cooler conditions expected in pa. after the
passage of a shortwave on sunday night, a broad upper ridge
expands from the rocky mountains to near the east coast of the
united states. temperatures creep up above 50 degrees in
northern ohio for monday and tuesday with the warmest forecast
temperatures on wednesday as a warm front lifts north of lake
erie. the local area is expected to get into the warm sector
with breezy southwest winds and temperatures near 60 degrees
towards central ohio. the consensus indicates that the above
normal temperatures will persist through at least friday.

remaining snow across the region is expected to melt as temperatures
soar to well above normal values. dewpoints start to climb above
freezing on sunday and even surpass 40 degrees across much of the
area for tuesday and wednesday. the melting snow will contribute to
some run-off and generally minor rises on area rivers.

.key message 2...

an upper level trough lifts out of the plains from tuesday into
wednesday as a 150 knot upper level jet approaches from the
four corners region. surface low pressure fills while lifting
out of the plains towards the upper midwest. showers associated
with overrunning along a warm front will extend east from the
low towards northern ohio, lifting northeast through the day. a
gradient is expected in the coverage of precipitation across
the area with better coverage near lake erie and even more so
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. precipitation
totals are generally forecast to be a third of an inch or less
with locally up to a half inch possible in pennsylvania.

another system looks to follow on the heels of this one, with low
pressure tracking out of the plains towards the central great lakes
thursday night and friday. the exact track of the system will
influence the amount of precipitation to expect and this will be
something to watch for the end of the week. the combination of
thermal break up from the warm conditions and run-off from
snowmelt and rain could combine to break up ice on area rivers.
this could result in the development of localized ice jams and
conditions will be monitored closely this week.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
mid-level clouds continue across the region with a weak surface
trough moving east. these clouds will give way to clear
conditions by daybreak for much of the area. the exception still
seems to be keri where some mvfr clouds will persist off lake
erie. a low pressure system will enter tonight into sunday and
bring mid-level clouds into the region late in the taf period.
winds through the period will be light, starting southwest
before shifting more southerly.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie is still mostly ice covered. there`s a break in the ice
just east of the islands to about vermilion, oh that extends north
through the open water zones. more degradation in the ice coverage
is expected over the next several days with a light southwesterly
wind and temperatures staying near and above freezing. currently the
winds are sitting around 10 to 15 knots across the lake and will
diminish into the early morning hours becoming less than 5 knots and
variable through monday morning. stronger winds of around 15 to 25
knots are possible wednesday into thursday next week with a passing
low pressure system.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 140633
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
133 am est sat feb 14 2026

.key messages...

- chance (30-50%) for light rain tonight into sunday morning
along and south of the us 30 corridor.

- above normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

- an active pattern develops during the mid to late week periods
with periodic chances (30-60%) for rain and gusty winds.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 132 am est sat feb 14 2026

stretch of early spring-like wx and above normal temps remain the
story through the middle of the week under low amplitude split flow
aloft. weak elevated deformation and deeper moisture on the northern
fringes of a southern stream system clips areas mainly south of the
us 30 corridor tonight into sunday morning with a period of light
rain still possible (30-50%). dry otherwise through at least
tuesday.

a more active west-southwest flow regime emerges during the mid to
late week periods given a transition to western conus troughing and
southeast us ridging aloft. moisture advects into a developing
baroclinic zone from the central plains into the lower great lakes.
piecemeal ejections of sheared shortwave energy out of the western
conus longwave trough will aid in the development of precipitation
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary and any developing sfc
reflections. initial development comes tuesday night into wednesday
for showers and perhaps a few embedded storms, though a large
portion of the area could end up drier and warmer within the warm
sector. several more shortwaves and moisture surges take aim on the
region then into the second half of the week into next weekend with
additional chances for precipitation (mainly rain), and a trend
toward cooler temps with the main baroclinic zone eventually
forced farther south toward the oh river.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 101 am est sat feb 14 2026

a low level ridge axis from mid atlantic to the great lakes will
continue to provide weak gradient winds this morning. with ridge
axis positioned a bit farther east tonight, just enough low
level flow may exist to prevent patchy fog formation at the
terminals. an upper level trough across the central conus will
shift across the mid/lower ms valley tonight. the main sfc
reflection with this system will remain well to the south across
the lower ms valley. weak southerly flow is expected to persist
through the period across northern indiana as low level height
gradient remains quite weak across the southern great lakes
region. an increase an high clouds is expected today, eventually
lowering to a mid cloud deck this evening. an elevated warm
front associated with this system should make it into central
indiana tonight, with best chances of rainfall possibly clipping
kfwa vicinity just after this forecast valid period into early
sunday morning. confidence does remain on the lower side whether
measurable rain will make it as far north as kfwa given a sharp
northern cut-off expected due to a sharp low level moisture
gradient.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 140850
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
350 am est sat feb 14 2026

.key messages...

- no precipitation expected through the weekend.

- chance for some freezing fog development overnight.

- above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

&&

.discussion...

a diffuse area of high pressure has settled across the great lakes
which has brought about clear conditions this morning and will lead
to another round of dry weather through the day. for the afternoon,
the temperature high forecast is nuanced and will be predicated on
the degree of inland advancement of the stratus deck now over lake
huron and northern lower michigan. low level flow will veer through
the morning which will accelerate the expansion of the status towards
the tri- cities and northern thumb where it will likely stall out
and eventually scour and deflect back into lake huron as flow begins
to back southwest through the afternoon. influence of both the
northerly flow and overcast conditions for part of the peak diurnal
cycle will have the ability to cap highs in the 30s. for locations
south of the stratus deck, especially closer to the mi/oh border and
metro region, the stronger insolation through a building translucent
cirrus deck and mixing out of the nocturnal inversion with inversion
heights peaking around 7c will push temperatures highs in the 40s,
with highs in the mid to upper 40s not out of the question.

overnight, calm to light winds at the surface and clear skies will
bring the chance for fog development overnight. with temperatures
dropping below the freezing mark, some periodic freezing fog will be
possible. statistical mos guidance lends support for fog development
overnight, possibly dense at times, however, confidence on coverage
is low at this time. will introduce patchy freezing fog to this
forecast package noting the conducive environment for potential
development.

the trend of above normal temperatures and quieter weather will
continue through the early week period. the next probable window for
precipitation will enter between late tuesday night to wednesday as
a pacific wave arrives onshore, inducing low pressure as it traverse
across the rockies, with the low pressure system forecasted to enter
the midwest. ensemble qpf means between the cmce/gefs/eps ensemble
set and respective deterministic output brings high confidence that
the great lakes region will see precipitation, owing to the large
footprint of isentropic ascent along the elongated baroclinic zone.

the higher uncertainty will surround around precipitation type as
cluster phase space analysis continues to highlight the degree of
troughing across the plains as the main point of uncertainty. this
will have impacts on the final track of the low pressure system and
thus degree of warm sector influence across se mi. latest trends
highly a less progressive and thus warmer environment for se mi,
favoring rain as the p-type for a greater portion of the cwa. this
can be seen in the warmer temperatures and shrinking of
interquartile spread within the eps through the metro region, but
overall would need better sampling of the wave to increase
confidence on these early trends. any progressive/cooler solutions
will favor chances for rain/snow or freezing rain. there will be
additional chances for precipitation including some wintry weather
thursday into friday as a secondary wave and low pressure system
moves in through the midwest/great lakes.

&&

.marine...

a weak pressure pattern holds across the region this weekend into
early next week as the dominant storm tracks remain directed to the
north and south. this maintains overall benign and mild conditions.
a weak clipper/trough moves into the northern great lakes on sunday
with a slight uptick in s to ssw wind to around 10 to 15 kt. a
similar weak system moves through on monday as well. a period of
more active weather is then likely by the middle of next week with
multiple low pressure systems tracking through the region.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1154 pm est fri feb 13 2026

aviation...

a dry and stable low level environment maintained within departing
high pressure will support vfr through the overnight period.
veering wind from southwest to west as low pressure tracks by to the
north. weak frontal passage associated with this system will draw
slightly cooler air into the region late tonight and early saturday.
mixed signal on degree of possible lower cloud expansion into
portions of southeast michigan but enough confidence to highlight a
window for lower stratus development at mainly mbs saturday morning.
fnt likely within a radius for possible/brief development. light
southeast flow saturday afternoon with vfr favored as daytime
heating effectively lifts/mixes out any prospective pockets of lower
cloud. a more favorable environment for fog and/or very low stratus
may materialize saturday night as easterly flow draws lingering
moisture back into the region.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into saturday
morning.

* low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200ft and/or 1/2sm late saturday
night.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......tf
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.