Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 am edt wed oct 14 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast for this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected early this
morning with the passage of a cold front.

2) strong low pressure expected friday bringing widespread rain,
strong winds, and the coldest air of the season so far. frost/freeze
headlines possible friday night and likely saturday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a weak low pressure system has moved off to the northeast this
morning with the associated cold front moving across northern ohio
currently. along this front, showers and thunderstorms have moved
eastward into northern ohio and should continue east-southeast
through the morning hours. temperatures and dewpoints across the
region are in the mid to upper 60s and upper 50s to low 60
respectively. current mesoanalysis has mucape of around 500 j/kg or
less across the region and 0-6km bulk shear of 45-55 knots where the
thunderstorms are located. there`s ample dcape out ahead of the
front of around 1000, including a plume over the central basin of
lake erie. with the lake being fairly warm still, around 18c, this
may assist in some thunderstorms over the lake becoming more
organized in the coming hours. with that being said, severe chances
are fairly low for this event and if a storm or two does become more
organized then strong winds will be the main impact.

the cold front will sag southward over the next several hours before
settling across the ohio valley by midday today. there will be
potential of moderate to heavy rain with it as it does push south,
though should be isolated. as the front settles, areas south of the
us30 corridor may see periodic showers through this evening.
overall, not expecting much in terms of rain accumulation for the
region, with most areas staying around a few tenths to 0.25 inch.
exception would be the areas south of the us30 corridor which could
see up to 0.50 inch. rain will trend further south throughout the
day as high pressure begins to build in from the north. brief period
of dry weather is expected until thursday afternoon.

key message 2...
an upper level trough will begin to deepen across the canadian
prairies thursday night into friday and push eastward into the great
lakes region by friday afternoon. the associated surface low
pressure system will develop across the mid-mississippi valley
thursday evening morning northeast towards the great lakes. the cold
front that settled across the ohio valley today will lift north as a
warm front thursday evening into friday night. showers and
thunderstorms will develop along this warm front and move into
western ohio by thursday evening, moving eastward into friday. given
the timeframe the warm front lifts north, there will be little
instability across the region and a low level inversion setting up
with weak lapse rates. though, low level winds will be fairly strong
behind the front as the surface low begins to rapidly deepen. low
level winds will be 40-50 knots with 0-6km bulk shear around 50-60
knots. with this, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible into early friday morning.

the surface low pressure will continue to deepen throughout the day
friday as it moves eastward through the great lakes. the associated
cold front will pass west to east across the region during the day
friday as well and should be clear of the cwa by friday evening.
severe weather is not expected with the cold front as it moves
through. there may be some lingering lake effect rain across
northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania into early saturday
morning with the northerly flow. some snowflakes could be mixed in
as well depending on how quickly the precipitation moves out.
though, given the rapidly deepening low pressure system, the
pressure gradient will increase behind and winds increase as well.
winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts over 40 mph from midday friday
through the early overnight hours behind the cold front. caa across
the region will help in mix down the strong low level winds. winds
may reach advisory criteria briefly friday evening, main areas will
be along the lakeshore from lorain county eastward and in
northwestern ohio. will need to assess the need for an advisory in
in the coming days.

with the strong caa behind the cold front and low pressure system,
it will bring in the coldest air of the season so far. overnight
lows friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s across much of the
region. areas across far northeastern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania may reach freezing temperatures. widespread frost
advisories and targeted freeze warnings will likely be needed for
that night. winds may be the a factor keeping frost from occurring
widespread as they will still be elevated 10-15 mph for most of the
overnight period. saturday night will bring more widespread
temperatures of near or below freezing. highest probabilities of
temperatures at 32 degrees or below will be east of the i-71
corridor and away from the lakeshore. winds will have calmed more at
this point, and with high pressure building in with clearing skies,
confidence is higher in widespread frost/freeze headlines for this
period.

with the high pressure building into the region on sunday,
temperatures will begin to moderate back to a more seasonal level to
start next week. dry weather is also expected from sunday through
early next week.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
a cold front currently resides across far northern ohio with
showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. as the cold
front sags southward, precipitation chances will as well, with
low ceilings (700-1,500 ft) filling in north of the front. after
this morning`s precipitation departs, there will be a few hours
of dry weather before isolated to scattered rain showers return
near and south of the front this afternoon, mainly along and
south of us-30. a brief period of ceilings below 500 ft and
visibilities below 2 sm is possible just behind the cold frontal
passage, especially at kmfd and kcak. ceilings should primarily
becoming a mix of mvfr and vfr by late afternoon, through the
rest of the taf period.

outlook...intermittent non-vfr is likely thursday afternoon
through friday night with wind gusts exceeding 30 knots on
friday.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are currently out of the north at 10-15 knots
after a cold front passed north to south early this morning. winds
will increase throughout the day to 10-20 knots and veer to be more
out of the northeast. waves will briefly build as well to around 3
feet west of the island to lake county. by thursday morning, winds
will have shifted to be out of the east at 10-15 knots, then shift
out of the south late thursday evening as a warm front moves north
over the lake. a strong low pressure system is expected to move
north of lake erie early friday morning dragging a cold front across
the lake through friday afternoon. winds will shift to be out of the
northwest behind the cold front and increase as the low pressure
system deepens rapidly to the northeast. winds will be 25-30 knots
across the lake beginning friday midday through saturday morning.
gale force winds will be possible from the islands eastward through
conneaut, oh late friday afternoon through early saturday morning. a
combination of small craft and gale warning headlines will be needed
beginning early friday morning through saturday afternoon.

high pressure will build in saturday afternoon with winds and waves
beginning to diminish. there will still be a moderate pressure
gradient across the lake into early next week, so winds will stay
between 10-20 knots out of the southwest through monday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
614 am edt wed oct 14 2026

.key messages...

- a cold front will continue sliding southeastward today with
some showers possible as it does so.

- a lull in greater rain chances is expected later this
afternoon into tonight, but another round of showers and
storms is expected thursday and thursday night.

- there is a marginal risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along
and south of us route 24 for thursday evening. confidence in
severe weather is low.

- turning much cooler and windy for friday with some lake effect
rain showers.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 326 am edt wed oct 14 2026

with a ridge across se tx and surface high pressure in the se conus,
waves are forecast to ride atop the ridge and then work to break
down the ridge during this mid to late week period. as such, the
shortwave that helped to force the overnight showers and storms
moves quickly eastward toward the northeast, which allows a cold
front to slide southeastward into the ohio river valley pushing
showers southeastward out of the area early this morning. the
subsidence behind this wave is expected to suppress any
substantial development behind it for the rest of the day,
today. however, some isolated to scattered light rain cannot be
ruled out, especially south of us-24. meanwhile, an area of low
pressure rides northward along the stalled front stretched down
into the southern plains and allows the portion of the front
stalled to our southwest to ride northeastward as a warm front
as early as late tonight into early thursday. so, while dew
points fall below 60f across the whole area tonight, they are
expected to moisten back above 60f again thursday afternoon and
night. it is interesting to see a stronger wave on the ecmwf
bring an inch of rain accums over 6hrs right up to our doorstep
thursday morning and this appears to be from some stronger large
scale ascent. this large scale ascent continues through the
area during the afternoon. this is different on the gfs as it
splits the stronger area of large scale ascent into two separate
smaller areas to the north and south and then the large scale
ascent during the afternoon is more diffuse or non- existent.
this provides some uncertainty on our marginal chances for
severe weather thursday afternoon/evening, especially on its
location. instability appears to get into areas south of us-24
on both the ecmwf and the nam (500 j/kg or less), but not the
gfs. instability is elevated and the column looks very moist so
this would likely be a heavy rain scenario with some potential
for gusty to damaging wind if it is able to get through the
inversion. models handle the forcing during this period
differently so placement of rain bulls-eyes and intensity of
them are all over the place across the area. the gfs has nearly
rain during the 00-06z timeframe thursday night, whereas the
ecmwf has a bulls-eye over 0.5" nearby.

now, at the same time as an upper low washes out as it moves
northeastward towards the area thursday, a deep mid level trough
dives southward and pushes the remnant energy northeastward quickly
and swings through later friday through friday night. this is
followed by a strong 1040 mb surface high diving into the
southeastern us. so we quickly have rain (with minimal convective
component by this point) overtaken by lake enhanced rain during the
day friday. nam bufkit soundings indicate delta-ts as much as 20 to
30f degrees using lake temps around 62 degrees. lake induced
inversions rise up to 700 mb on these forecast soundings, which
fairly incredible. deeper moisture profiles arrive thursday night
and continue into early friday morning before drier surface air
begins to work in and cut off better rain formation. given the
strength of the surface high, much cooler air is able to enter the
area and low temps friday night and saturday night will fall into
the 30s. this turns the mind to frost possibilities, but friday
night looks like there will still be a bit of gradient around and
probably the wind is still slackening at this point. plus, we`ll
still have lake clouds dissipating. a slightly better chance for
frost occurs saturday night, but we`ll have to see if winds are able
to slacken enough at that point.

from saturday night, flow across the conus appears to slacken and
there is a period where nearly zonal flow is established until early
the following weak as another deep trough enters the western conus.
because return flow becomes reestablished, expect a warming trend
with a return to seasonable highs at least by sunday, if not by
monday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 600 am edt wed oct 14 2026

showers and storms have cleared both locations. some pockets of
stratus and fog have developed at ksbn and could materialize at
kfwa. beyond the first few hours confidence on mvfr cigs is
somewhat low as upstream obs not showing a whole lot of impacts.
will keep with higher end mvfr for the time being.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
712 am edt wed oct 14 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures closer to normal and drier today, followed by
additional rainfall late thursday afternoon into early friday
morning.

- a strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier
conditions friday, with a few showers in spots.

- turning drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by
sunday.

&&

.aviation...

cold front has settled just south of michigan to start this taf
period with just higher coverage of shower activity along the state
line now pushing east. expecting a mix of mvfr and low vfr clouds
this morning with a lifting to predominately sct/bkn low vfr for the
remainder of the day. light nnw winds veer to the n-ne by this
evening with a high pressure building across the northern great
lakes, which will also supply the drier air to help improve the
ceilings this afternoon. it appears northeasterly winds for tonight
will help bring a return to greater coverage of lake huron stratus
that brings a return to sct to bkn mvfr ceilings.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms today or tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this morning. medium for
this afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 307 am edt wed oct 14 2026

discussion...

remnants of overnight showers/storms vacate the area early this
morning as upper midwestern high pressure builds in the from north.
elevated portions of the weak cold front in northern ohio are slowly
pushed south over the course of the morning which could still allow
a spotty light shower/drizzle through mid-morning along the state
border. otherwise dry conditions are established across se mi today
with cool northerly flow bringing temperatures back closer to
averages, albeit still some 5 degrees warmer than mid-october
normals.

influence of high pressure wanes over the course of thursday morning
as it tracks towards quebec. while this occurs, a southern stream
mid-upper trough ejects at out the 4-corners region over the central
plains phasing with a northern stream trough digging out of
manitoba. timing of lead rain has come into better focus with this
cycle of runs with showers expected to expand southwest to northeast
over the course of the late afternoon-evening (~20-00z) as the
elevated warm frontal slope lifts into se mi. a few rumbles of
thunder possible by late evening towards the ohio border area as the
surface warm front lifts north towards m-59 allowing at least a few
hundred j/kg of elevated instability to build over the state line.
surface low progged to slide directly over the area thursday night
coinciding the bulk of rain coverage/qpf with rainfall totals
generally falling in the 0.25-0.5" range.

synoptic rain tapers off friday morning as the low pushes deeper
into southern ontario. that said, parent upper trough swings across
the west/central great lakes during the day ushering in significant
cold air aloft (500mb temps fall in the -20`s c) steepening lapse
rates, which in combination with passing upper divergence, offers
scattered convective shower chances. increasing mixing depths within
post-frontal cold advection looking capable to partially, if not
fully, tap into 30-35kt flow aloft supporting wind gusts of 30-35mph
with potential to peak in the 35-40mph range. core of this colder
airmass reaches the area overnight, marked by 850mb temps falling to
around -3c. the edge of plains surface high pressure attempts to
nose into southern mi friday night as well promoting clearing skies
and diminishing winds going into early saturday morning. as such,
setup is favorable for the first freeze for a portion of se mi as
lows bottom in the lower 30s, especially north of m-59 where sub-
freezing temperatures are most likely. below normal temperatures are
short-lived however as central conus upper ridging expands overhead
sunday returning temps near to above normal for the first half of
the new week.

marine...

northwest flow takes hold today in the wake of a cold
front which will bring localized stronger winds and gusts across
lake huron where fetch is more favorable. wind gusts ranging between
20 to 25 knots are expected across north and central lake huron
through the early evening hours. a high pressure system will then
fill in across the northern great lakes starting tonight, which will
diminish wind speeds leading into tomorrow morning. lighter winds
hold through thursday as winds veer from east to southwest as high
pressure departs.

attention will then turn to the passage of a low pressure system and
subsequent strong cold front, slated to move over the great lakes
friday. the initial passage of the low pressure system will likely
bring numerous to widespread rain showers in the morning. passage of
the low will usher in a strong cold front that will usher in cooler
canadian air. the strong increase in instability as cooler air
filters in over the warmer lake waters coupled with prolonged
northwest fetch brings high confidence to see gust to gales across
lake huron and the saginaw bay, and likely south into lake st. clair
and lake erie. gale watches have been issued for lake huron this
forecast package with the potential said watches are expanded over
lakes st clair and erie in future updates.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from friday morning through late friday night for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...kdk
marine.......am/kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.