Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
137
fxus61 kcle 090538
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
138 am edt thu apr 9 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) warmer temperatures through friday with some low impact
showers and thunderstorms late thursday and especially friday.

2) temperatures warm well above normal sunday through midweek with
gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the surface high has drifted into the eastern great lakes this
afternoon, with mostly sunny skies and s to se low-level winds
allowing for slow warming. satellite and water vapor loops show
the next mid/upper shortwave and associated surface low crossing
the northern plains. as the surface low lifts north of lake
superior tonight, a warm front will lift across the region
ushering in much warmer air. this will set up a much milder
night tonight followed by temperatures returning to slightly
above normal levels thursday in the warm air advection regime.

in terms of precipitation with this system, the strongest
synoptic support at the base of the mid/upper shortwave trough
will pass north of the region thursday as the surface low lifts
into northern ontario. the weak upper support will coordinate to
a weaker low-level jet and associated moisture advection into
northern ohio and nw pa. with this being said, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trailing cold front
as it slowly sinks southeastward into the region thursday
afternoon and evening, but expect these to be low-impact with
just some brief heavy downpours. the best chance to see a shower
or thunderstorm will be in nw ohio and near the lakeshore. the
latest swody2 maintains general thunder in nw ohio.

coverage of rain and a few thunderstorms will increase friday as
the frontal boundary becomes quasi-stationary across the region
in response to a secondary mid/upper shortwave progressing
through the central and southern great lakes and inducing a weak
surface wave that traverses the boundary. moisture advection
still does not look very strong, but we will be in closer
proximity to the right entrance region of a 90-100 knot upper
jet streak, so this will help to make it rain in most of the
cwa. severe weather is not expected, but slightly better wind
fields and associated shear with the wave could generate some
stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds. rainfall amounts on
friday should generally be 0.20 to 0.50 inches, so do not expect
any of the flooding to be re-aggravated. overall, friday will
be a wetter day, but impacts should be low. temperatures will
remain seasonably mild.

key message 2...
the front will briefly settle into the ohio river valley
saturday as canadian high pressure at the surface builds down
across the great lakes. this will lead to a much cooler but
mostly sunny day, especially near the lakeshore with the ne
flow.

a big change in the weather pattern will start sunday as a large
mid/upper closed low progresses into the california/oregon
coasts. this will eventually evolve into a deep mid/upper
trough over the west that will gradually swing into the central
plains by the middle of next week. in response, mid/upper
ridging will amplify over the eastern conus from sunday onward,
with the frontal boundary quickly returning north as a warm
front sunday. this pattern will set up deep sw flow and
associated warm air advection through the middle of next week,
allowing for temperatures to warm well into the 70s sunday and
monday and perhaps touching 80 by tuesday. dew points will also
be on the rise making it feel humid by tuesday and wednesday.

besides the warmth, this pattern will also bring several
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as weak pieces of
shortwave energy eject out of the big upstream trough and
interact with an open gulf. the frontal boundary will be well nw
of the region until tuesday, so this should keep coverage
widely scattered until then, but expect coverage to increase
tuesday into wednesday as the main trough and associated cold
front slowly approach. depending on the timing of the front and
upper level energy, severe weather and heavy rainfall are
possible tuesday or wednesday. this will be monitored, but the
system has been trending slower over the past couple of model
runs.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr is anticipated through at least mid to late afternoon
thursday. by that point, a cold front will bring scattered
showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms into northern
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania, which will be capable of
producing non-vfr conditions. the forecast is trending more
optimistic for kfdy/kmfd/kcak and have opted for a prob30 or dry
forecast for these terminals since latest guidance favors the
vast majority of precipitation remaining to the north of these
terminals. can`t rule out some gusty winds to 30+ knots in any
stronger storms that develop. showers will likely lift north
towards the end of the taf period. vfr is expected outside of
precipitation.

winds will be out of the south/southwest at 10 to 15 knots with
locally higher winds likely at kfdy/kcle/keri. most terminals
will not experience gusts tonight, although downsloping at keri
will likely allow gusts to 25 to 35 knots to mix to the surface
through tonight. the lack of mixing will result in llws as a 40
to 50 knot llj expands over the area tonight into thursday
morning. the llws will diminish as diurnal mixing allows gusts
to 20 to 30 knots to mix to the surface by mid-morning. winds
will diminish to 10 knots or less by no later than 00z friday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms late thursday night through friday evening and
again sunday night through monday.

&&

.marine...
marine conditions are expected to become breezy with offshore
winds increasing tonight into thursday ahead of an approaching
cold front. southeasterly winds this afternoon and evening will
be 10 to 15 knots. overnight southerly winds will increase 15
to 20 knots by early thursday morning and remain breezy into
thursday. we will watch the trends for a possible sca but it may
be a marginal situation. the frontal boundary will sag towards
lake erie by thursday evening but slow down as a wave of low
pressure tracks along the front thursday night into friday
morning. the cold front will eventually push across the lake
later on friday. winds will continue southwesterly friday 10 to
20 knots followed by a wind shift from the north 5 to 12 knots
friday night. high pressure will be near the lake this weekend
with a light northeasterly to easterly flow expected on
saturday. a return flow of southerly winds will be back by
sunday morning, increasing during the day 10 to 20 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...15
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
692
fxus63 kiwx 082227
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
627 pm edt wed apr 8 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures continue to moderate into thursday with a
frontal boundary providing some brief cooling for friday.
temperatures warm again late weekend into early next week with
highs mid 70s to around 80 sunday and monday.

- rain chances increase late tonight and persist through friday.
additional chances of showers and storms return for early
next week.

- overall rainfall amounts into this weekend are not expected to
cause significant additional hydrologic issues with highest
forecasted rain amounts around 0.50" across nw indiana/sw
lower michigan. as a result, water levels on many rivers,
streams and lakes should slowly fall over the next several
days.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 155 pm edt wed apr 8 2026

while there will be a few bumps in the road, overall a warmer period
is in store over the next 7 days or so. the initial bumps will occur
over the next 48 hours or so as a series of disturbances pass mainly
to our north, giving the area glancing blows of precipitation
chances. the first arrives tonight into early thursday as a closed
upper low translates east along the international border and
eventually north of lake superior by 12z thu. a weak front will pass
through the area with a modest increase in moisture sufficient
to allow at least a chance of showers with the greatest focus
residing across the nw half of the area before the front weakens
and outruns the better lift from the departing wave. overall
qpf still appears to be a tenth or less. the front will stall
out near/south of us- 24, awaiting the arrival of another
disturbance which will bring somewhat deeper moisture and lift
with it (pwats closer to 1" vs around a half inch with the first
system). the greatest chances for showers and possibly a few
storms will generally be focused between 6z fri and 00z sat.
although the moisture content will be higher, overall qpf
shouldn`t be enough to cause major issues with local rivers
(outside of maybe slowing the speed of the drop in levels). a
combination of limited caa and extensive cloud cover will cause
a larger gradient in highs on friday with temperatures closer to
50 near lake mi and into the 60s south of us-24. overnight lows
will dip into the mid 30s friday night, which may lead to some
patchy frost if skies clear sufficiently.

a change in the overall pattern will then commence over the weekend
into next week as a deep trough sets up across the western us,
allowing for an increasing sw flow into the region. by sunday, well
above normal temperatures are in store (into the 70s and maybe some
80s). while the main trough will remain to the west, a series of
systems will move northeast bringing higher moisture and chances for
showers and thunderstorms. at this point the axis of highest
rainfall and severe threat looks to remain to our west and south.
that being said, there are some chances for strong to severe storms
as well as heavy rain depending on the day to day event evolution
and track of each system.

area rivers, stream and lakes should continue to see a steady
lowering of levels with additional qpf not likely enough to cause
anything more than a slower downward trend in some river basins.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 619 pm edt wed apr 8 2026

quiet and dry weather continues through tonight and southerly
winds gusting as high as 25 kts. some low level wind shear will
be possible between 03z and 12z thu with up to 50 kts. breezy
conditions continue through a majority of this taf period.
scattered showers and perhaps a few embeded storms will approach
from the northwest after around 09z thu, the best chances for
rain and even a few thunderstorms with mvfr cigs and vsbys will
be between 09-15z at ksbn and after 12z at kfwa on thursday as
a cold front moves southward through the area.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
547
fxus63 kdtx 090401
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1201 am edt thu apr 9 2026

.key messages...

- a slow moving cold front brings and band of light rain showers
with broken coverage across the area thursday.

- another round of rain showers with wider coverage and greater
intensity develops late thursday night and friday morning.

- dry weather and cooler but still near normal temperatures follow
behind the front friday afternoon and saturday.

- warmer temperatures move in sunday and monday but also with an
active rainfall pattern early next week.

&&

.aviation...

a narrow axis of midlevel moisture transport will then push into
southeast michigan late tonight in response to compact low pressure
system passing through northwest ontario. model progs show
significant weakening of both 850- 700mb frontogenesis as the frontal
zone moves through the area 09- 15z. model soundings support very
poor midlevel lapse rates and a struggle to hold saturation below 6.0
kft agl. preference is for tempo mvfr conditions with light rain.
southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots anticipated thursday afternoon in
the wake of the precipitation.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft thursday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 pm edt wed apr 8 2026

discussion...

morning sun helped lift temperatures from frosty morning lows in the
20s before a brief mid level cloud increase from the west which has
since dissipated to just patchy coverage. extra sunshine is helping
lift temperatures more into the lower 50s at mid afternoon, although
se wind gusting in the 20 mph range feels cooler and the onshore
direction is limiting readings the to 40s near lake huron. the now
departing mid level clouds represent warm advection in progress
across the great lakes that continues tonight. evening temperatures
settle into or remain in the 40s and then rise into the lower 50s
after midnight as surface wind veers sw and the warm sector of
northern ontario low is drawn into the region.

dry weather holds for much of tonight as the milder air moves into
lower mi, and until a band of rain showers reaches the tri cities
toward sunrise. this occurs within the moisture axis also drawn
northward by sw flow ahead of the cold front trailing the ontario
surface low. model depictions of the lower to mid level theta-e
ridge still indicate a narrow and sharp structure within a 50 kt low
level jet across the upper midwest and western great lakes this
evening. this is where moisture transport, daytime instability, and
short wave/frontal forcing all align to produce a more solid and
more intense band of showers and scattered thunderstorms. all of
this changes as the band reaches central lower mi and the tri cities
toward sunrise. the moisture advection is over, timing is at the
nocturnal instability minimum, and the boundary is trending
frontolytic on the south flank of the mid level wave. loss of this
larger scale organization supports the diminishing trend in rainfall
rate shown in hi-res and regional deterministic models as the front
settles through se mi during thursday.

model projections in today`s 12z cycle maintain solutions that show
the front stalling across in/oh thursday night as the next 500 mb
short wave arrives in the midwest. this wave reactivates a larger
band of rain showers at mid levels of the frontal zone that is timed
to move into central and se mi mainly after midnight which then
lasts through friday morning. nocturnal timing in this case is
favorable for low level jet intensification downstream and along the
850-700 mb frontal zone leading to a flare-up of elevated
convection. the general forecast trend shows a slight northward
shift in the rain/snow line and in the position of the consensus qpf
axis, both associated with a similar northward shift on the track of
the mid level wave and pressure reflection along the surface frontal
zone. rainfall amounts still range widely among deterministic
solutions for the 6 hour period ending 12z friday and are generally
less than 1 inch for the entire 12 hour event ending 18z friday,
including a tendency to shift new elevated convection toward the
surface front friday morning. localized 1 inch totals are mentioned
in the hydrology section as high end amounts with low predictability
depending on occurrence and location of isolated thunderstorm
clusters. overall event rainfall totals are less than 0.5 inch in ai
solutions and ecmwf/gfs ensemble means, which suggests leaning the
forecast toward lower values of nbm qpf in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range
before the system exits friday afternoon.

eastward passage of the progressive 500 mb wave and larger scale
trough axis drives the front much farther south into the ohio valley
by friday evening. nw confluent flow and a surge of surface high
pressure follows to maintain dry weather friday night and saturday.
the inbound high pressure air mass is projected to be just slightly
cooler in temperature guidance that carry highs in the 50s for
saturday, right around normal for early to mid april. another round
of warm advection is well underway across the great lakes by early
sunday as the next low pressure system organizes in the plains
states. this system is associated with a southern stream 500 mb
trough over the rockies that generates deep sw flow of gulf moisture
into the great lakes meaning warm temperatures but also an active
rainfall pattern for early next week.

marine...

southerly flow strengthens tonight across the central great lakes as
surface low pressure progresses across ontario, causing gradient
winds to increase above 20 knots for much of lake huron. a 60 knot
low level jet associated with the system also moves in overhead, but
low-level stability should limit strong gusts from mixing down to
the surface. gusts should generally be capped below 35 knots, with
elevated wave heights being the main marine concern. the wave
response will be sufficient to exceed small craft advisory criteria
for the southern huron nearshore zones, therefore an advisory
remains in effect. also, a few gusts to gales cannot be ruled out,
especially over the northern huron waterways, but infrequency should
still preclude any gale headlines. the low eventually draws a cold
front across the region late tonight into thursday resulting in
several rounds of showers, with low potential for a couple embedded
thunderstorms.

a wave lifting out of the plains leads to additional opportunities
for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm thursday night and friday,
with some light snowfall more likely for the north/central huron
basin. high pressure then builds out of the upper midwest to start
the weekend with drier and weaker northwest flow. active weather
will be possible again sunday through tuesday due to several passing
disturbances. potential exists for gusts to gales late sunday into
monday.

hydrology...

a cold front brings a band of rain showers first into the tri cities
area early in the morning which then moves to the south and east
across the rest of se michigan during the day. broken coverage of
showers produces rainfall totals generally less than 0.2 inch as the
band weakens while moving through the region and then exits by late
afternoon. a second round of showers develops mainly after midnight
thursday night and lasts through friday morning. this system brings
higher rainfall amounts over a wider area averaging about 0.5 inch
in a 6 to 12 hour time window. there is a chance for localized
totals near 1 inch where embedded thunderstorms occur before this
pattern also exits southward and eastward friday afternoon. flooding
potential remains low with this event, although the new rainfall
could slightly delay drainage from river and stream systems after
the heavy rain that occurred last weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.