Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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988
fxus61 kcle 101126
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
726 am edt fri apr 10 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain with breezy conditions today.

2) slightly cooler saturday with above normal temperatures sunday
through next week. unsettled weather returns early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
rain showers will re-enter the forecast area this morning as a cold
front moves southeast across the ohio valley today. ahead of the
frontal passage, southwesterly winds may occasionally gust to 25-30
mph late this morning through early this afternoon. the band of
showers with some isolated embedded thunderstorms will exit the
forecast area by 9 pm this evening. overall, rainfall amounts
will be around 0.25 inches with locally higher amounts up to
0.50 are possible across northwest pennsylvania.

key message 2...
briefly cooler behind the aforementioned cold front tonight through
saturday night as high pressure builds overhead from the north. low
temperatures tonight and saturday night settle in the mid 30s to low
40s. highs on saturday will rise into the low 50s along the
lakeshore and mid to upper 50s south of the lake.

the high will push to the east on sunday allowing for broad
southwesterly flow to advect warm and moist air into the region.
this will usher in daily afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s sunday through late next week.

the pattern shift will also allow for a series of shortwaves to
push across the ohio valley region bringing periods of showers
and thunderstorms through next week. will need to keep an eye
on tuesday night into wednesday where organized convection may
develop. spc has clipped northwest ohio in their severe weather
outlook during that timeframe.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is expected through the first couple of hours of the taf
period before showers and non-vfr conditions arrive as a cold
front moves southeast across the local area after about 14z this
morning. guidance favors mvfr conditions in showers and lower
clouds across the majority of the area later this morning into
this evening, however visibilities and especially ceilings may
fall to ifr at times during the day today. rain will exit to the
southeast of the local area shortly after 00z saturday with
ceilings slowly beginning to recover from the northwest tonight.

south/southwest winds will increase to 10 to 16 knots with
gusts to 20 to 30 knots this morning before winds shift to the
northwest and diminish to about 10 knots behind the cold front
this evening. winds are expected to become more northerly and
become lighter later tonight. a brief period of llws is likely
as a llj to 40 to 50 knots persists over the area early this
morning, but any llws potential will diminish as gusts begin to
mix to the surface before 15z.

outlook...occasional non-vfr conditions are likely in periodic
showers and thunderstorms sunday night through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected this morning
into early this afternoon before becoming onshore and
diminishing to 10 knots or less behind a cold front this
evening. light and variable winds are anticipated saturday with
southeast winds increasing slightly during the day sunday. by
sunday night, winds will become southwest and increase to 15 to
20 knots with similar flow continuing through monday. small
craft advisories may be needed during this time, but conditions
are marginal at this point. periods of elevated southwest winds
are likely through tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
635 am edt fri apr 10 2026

.key messages...

- rain overspreads the area this morning with greatest rainfall
amounts generally along and north of us route 6 (between 0.25"
and 0.50").

- turning colder later this afternoon into tonight behind a cold
front, with some patchy frost expected tonight.

- trending warmer and generally drier for most of the weekend.
next organized rain chance arriving sunday night into early
monday.

- daily chances for showers and thunderstorms can be expected
next week as numerous disturbances pass through the area. an
occasional risk for strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out, particularly tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt fri apr 10 2026

widespread rain showers extend from central lower michigan into west
central il early this morning. a broad mid/upper trough working
across the upper ms valley and western great lakes is inducing
a broad frontogenesis response which is aiding in the coverage
of the rain this morning. these rain showers will overspread the
local area early this morning before departing from northwest
to southeast this afternoon. instability magnitudes are quite
limited this morning with weak mid level lapse rates in place.
some isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, but this should be of
very limited coverage. based on eastward translation of this
low level frontogenesis forcing into the eastern great lakes
later today, best rainfall amounts of one quarter to one half
inch still appear likely generally along and north of us route 6
corridor. the highest href probs (40-50%) for rainfall amounts
in excess of 0.50" through early afternoon remain generally
along and north of the toll road. these rainfall amounts should
be light enough to prevent a significant river response across
the st. joseph and maumee river basins, with overall forecast
trends still supporting continued falling river levels for
points across these basins experiencing ongoing minor river
flooding. temps today will follow non-typical diurnal
tendencies due to the influence of precipitation and cold
frontal progression. at least a brief period of better mixing
this morning could support some gusts back into the 25-30 mph
range across portions of nw ohio along and south of us 24 in
advance of the cold front.

a cold night in store tonight as a low level anticyclone settles
across the great lakes region with good radiational cooling
conditions. given rainfall of today and radiational cooling, cannot
completely rule out some patchy fog development early saturday
morning but will hold off on mention at this time with possibility
this could play out more as a patchy frost scenario.

mid level heights start to recover across western great lakes on
saturday evening with some return warm/moist advection possibly
allowing some advectively forced showers to clip far north/northwest
areas. the more substantial surface warm frontal boundary should
lift north across the area on sunday setting up much above normal
high temps in the mid-upper 70s for sunday afternoon. some
indications persist in guidance of short wave emanating from upper
low off the ca coast racing eastward to the upper ms valley
sunday night with a potential of some showers/isolated storm
developing in pre-frontal zone. instability should be limited
with this feature so confidence in thunder is on the low side.
progressive nature of forcing late sunday should limit any
significant additional hydro concerns for that period.

while a low level cool front may migrate south toward southern great
lakes early monday with passage of this initial mid level trough,
expecting front to lift back northward as a warm front monday with
mild temperatures continuing. monday`s showers/storm potential
is not very clear at this forecast distance as a potential lull
in stronger mid level forcing could occur during this time along
with a potential of some capping due to some steeper mid level
lapse rates building into the region from the rockies. thus,
just some low chance pops were maintained during the day
monday.

early indications suggest best potential for some organized
convection would be in the tuesday-wednesday (possibly thursday?)
period. medium range guidance would suggest a zone of respectable
moisture transport setting up from east texas into the ohio
valley/southern great lakes region as a potential northern
stream short wave skirts along us/canadian border late monday
night into tuesday. great lakes frontal zone may tend to sag
southward into far n in/sw lower mi heading into tue night/early
wed with increased shower and storm chances, and then will need
to watch how the more potent southern stream upper level trough
evolves for the middle of the week. an overall trend to an
initially stronger upper level ridge across eastern conus and
some dampening of this upstream trough toward middle of next
week seems to support the slower idea past few guidance runs.
overall synoptic setup would support a decently sheared
environment and depending on timing/strength of the upstream
southern stream upper level trough, some strong/severe risk
could materialize tuesday-wednesday, predictability appears to
break down in deterministic/ensemble solutions post-wednesday in
regards to strength/progression of next pacific nw disturbance
for late next work week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 630 am edt fri apr 10 2026

a broad mid level trough will continue to shift east across the
great lakes region this morning. forcing with this feature is
not particularly strong but low level frontogenesis forcing has
been primary forcing mechanisms for widespread rain showers.
earlier this morning, a few thunderstorms were noted across
northern missouri, but this area of rain has entered a more
stable environment and expecting any thunder to be isolated and
likely confined south of the us route 24 corridor. rain will
taper from nw to se through the day as low level frontal zone
slips southeast. low clouds will also accompany southward
progression of this cold front and have maintained mvfr cigs,
with a potential period of ifr or even lifr cigs this morning at
ksbn. improvements are expected mid afternoon into early this
evening as a pocket of dry air currently positioned across
northern plains/upper midwest builds southeast. quiet aviation
weather expected tonight as low level anticyclone shifts across
the region providing mainly clear skies and light north winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 101052
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 am edt fri apr 10 2026

.key messages...

- rain this morning will give way to cool and damp conditions this
afternoon.

- dry and cool conditions will prevail saturday.

- warmer temperatures moving in sunday into mid-week come with an
active shower and thunderstorm pattern.

&&

.aviation...

a front is draped west to east across far southern mi, just south of
the detroit taf sites this morning. a weak low will ripple along the
front through the first few hours of the forecast bringing a period
of rain to the region. overall intensity looks weaker than previous
though, so chances of heavy rain or thunder looks to be very low.
ifr cigs are filling in across the north which will continue through
about 15z, with mvfr then carrying into the afternoon with the wrap
around moisture northwest of the low. adding to clouds this evening
will be a secondary low tracking through northern mi which could
impact mbs and or fnt. could see some light showers but will not
add to the tafs at this time. high pressure building in tonight
should clear skies rapidly for the rest of the night.

for dtw...rain chances through about 15z this morning. very low
chance, and decreasing, for thunder so not including in the tafs.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 ft today. low tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 am edt fri apr 10 2026

discussion...

an axis of rain is extending across nrn illinois into cntl lower mi
along a region of enhanced mid level frontogenesis. ample moisture
transport along a 50 knot low level jet is resulting in excellent
theta e convergence along the elevated portion of the front. this
will translate across se mi during the 09z to 15z time frame as the
stronger low level inflow translates across se mi. elevated
instability is forecast to be fairly weak during the morning,
limiting the thunder potential. rainfall amounts will be a little
higher across the saginaw valley and thumb regions (half to one
inch) where the mid level fgen will be more persistent. veering of
the low level inflow and a progressive mid level short wave will
result in a brief duration of the stronger fgen forcing across the
south, likely keeping rain totals under a half inch. the associated
surface low rippling along the front is forecast to track along or
just south of the i-94 corridor this morning. warm moist air in the
warm sector will hold temps in the 50s, while locations to the north
see temps largely in the 40s under weak post frontal cold air
advection. several hi res solutions indicate additional scattered
shower development across the saginaw valley/thumb region late this
afternoon/evening as a secondary short wave moves across cntl lower
mi.

mid level confluence will then expand across the region tonight into
saturday allowing surface high pressure and dry air to dominate. the
degree of dry air and anticyclonic flow will result in a clearing
trend tonight and allow a good deal of sun during the first half of
the day saturday. ensemble guidance supports highs in the 50s
saturday, with cooler readings along the lakes.

expansion of the long wave ridge toward the eastern seaboard during
the latter half of the weekend will establish deep layer southwest
flow across the great lakes, leading to a significant warming trend.
the initial influx of warm moist air saturday night into sunday will
provide the next chance for showers. the passage of the associated
surface warm front will drive the warm sector into se mi sunday.
ensemble members strongly suggest sunday highs well into the 70s,
with the possible exception of the thumb region. warm sector mixing
will also lead to a windy day sunday. a few ecmwf ensemble members
indicate peak wind gusts over 40 mph. this will all be dependent
upon how quickly the warm sector expands into se mi. seasonally warm
and moist air is forecast to prevail through much of next week.
while this is still a bit far out in the forecast, the projected
instability parameters combined with the strong wind fields raise
concerns for episodes of severe weather next week.

marine...

additional opportunities for showers this morning, including a few
rumbles of thunder further south, while some light snowfall is
possible for the north/central huron basin. the responsible upper
level wave moves across the northern great lakes throughout the day
with rather weak northwesterly gradient winds (prevailing below 15
knots). high pressure then builds in from the west to start the
weekend with drier and weaker flow flipping south-southeasterly.
active weather will be possible again sunday through wednesday due
to several passing disturbances. potential exists for gusts to
gales, mainly late sunday into monday, for portions of lake huron.

hydrology...

widespread rain will affect the area this morning. the more
persistent rain will occur across the saginaw, tittabawassee and cass
river basins. there is high probabilities for a half inch to three
quarters of an inch in this area, with low probabilities to exceed
an inch. these amounts are not expected to result in notable rises
on area rivers. the metro detroit and ann arbor regions will see a
shorter duration of rain, with lower probabilities for amounts to
exceed a half inch.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....drk
discussion...sc
marine.......kgk
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.