Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
133 pm est wed dec 24 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure over the area today will shift east tonight as a weak
low pressure system moves across the ohio valley tonight. high
pressure will clip the area on thursday before another low pressure
system impacts the area late thursday through friday. a brief high
pressure will return on saturday before a more potent low pressure
moves into the region on sunday.

&&

.near term /through thursday night/...
a weak shortwave trough will move over the ohio valley tonight,
supporting a surface low and marking the return of precipitation.
with this update, the surface low appears to have shifted a bit
south compared to prior, allowing for the heaviest precipitation to
occur along and south of us-30. there is expected to be plenty of
lift and moisture with this system that there may be locally heavy
showers and nuisance flooding briefly. in addition, there is a non-
zero potential for isolated thunder as models suggest marginal
elevated instability, however confidence is too low to include in
the forecast at this point. this system will be quick moving with
all showers ending by 12z thursday as a brief ridge builds in. this
ridge will allow for a dry christmas day, although cloudy skies are
still anticipated.

high temperatures on christmas will climb into the low to mid 40s
with the coolest temperatures across the northern counties,
gradually warming as one moves south. overnight lows tonight and
thursday night will be in the low to mid 30s. see the short term
discussion for details on the upcoming winter mix.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
an impactful mixed precipitation event is likely across
northwest pennsylvania with additional impacts possible across
northern ohio. in northwest pennsylvania, the biggest concern is
accumulating ice due to moderate freezing rain with 0.1 to 0.3
inches of ice possible. accumulations of less than 0.1 inch of
ice is expected elsewhere. to account for this, a winter storm
watch has been issued for inland erie and crawford counties in
pa. additional headlines may be needed elsewhere, but would be
issued when confidence increases.

now looking at more of the intricacies of this tricky forecast... on
thursday night, temperatures will hover in the upper 20s to low 30s
ahead of an approaching warm front and low pressure system expected
to move through the ohio valley. this system is expected to bring
widespread precipitation across the entire area, the tricky part is
in what form that precipitation will fall. models continue to
suggest that elevated warm air will push through the mid layers late
thursday into friday morning which will allow for a layer of above
freezing temperatures, lending to melting precipitation. the tricky
part is how quickly the waa kicks in at the surface to help bring
the temperatures above freezing there as well. many models maintain
surfaces winds with a easterly component into friday, allowing for a
very gradually warming at the surface. this will result in a period
of freezing rain near the leading edge of precipitation. confidence
continues to increase that the swatch of heaviest qpf with this
system will extend from michigan to the southeast across lake erie
and into northwest pa. confidence in accumulating ice continues to
increase across the entire area with the highest confidence across
nwpa where higher qpf and prolonged cooler temperatures may lead to
ice accumulations of 0.1-0.3 inches. total accumulations will be
highly dependent on temperatures and the magnitude of precipitation.
as waa gradually increases surface temperatures and winds gain a
more southerly component, additional rainfall will not freeze to
surfaces. the current forecast has this occurring from west to east
beginning mid-morning into the afternoon hours on friday.

as with any forecast related to winter weather and precipitation
types, there is some uncertainty and any minor changes have the
potential to dramatically shift the forecast. the biggest
uncertainty at this point is across nwoh as there remains some
divergence in the track of the parent low with the latest guidance.
with this update, there appears to be a slight trend in that low
pressure shifting south a bit, which may pose an increased threat of
freezing rain across nwoh, including the toledo metro. will need to
keep a close eye on this as additional winter headlines may be
needed outside of nwpa.

by late friday, all precipitation should shift east of the area as
another area of high pressure nudges in. this will allow for dry
conditions to persist through saturday with some scattered pops
possible late saturday into sunday ahead of the next system.

on friday, temperatures will gradually warm into the mid 30s across
northern counties to the upper 40s across southern counties.
overnight lows will remain mild friday night, falling into the low
to mid 30s. saturday will be relatively pleasant across the area as
temperatures climb into the 40s before cooling into the low to mid
30s saturday night.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
on sunday, a deepening trough across the central conus will support
the intensification of a surface low over the northern plains. this
low pressure is expected to track into the great lakes region,
moving a robust cold front east and ultimately marking the return of
winter the area. much of the synoptic precipitation on sunday will
remain as widespread rain showers with qpf totals of 0.25 to 0.7
inches of liquid precipitation. these showers will gradually
transition to a rain/snow mix overnight sunday as a northwest flow
develops across the area. this will become all snow as lake effect
snow showers begin to develop on monday. as this system moves
through the area, gusty winds are also expected.

a prolonged period of -14 to - 16c moving across lake erie which
remains above 0c will result in moderate lake induced instability
and the potential for lake effect snow showers to persist through
midweek. there is not much confidence in the magnitude, extent, or
exact placement of snowfall, but there is high confidence in lake
effect occurring.

high temperatures on sunday will likely occur early in the day
before the boundary moves across the area, climbing into the 50s for
much of the area. these temperatures will quickly cool into the low
to mid 20s for sunday night. after sunday, highs will remain in the
20s with overnight lows falling into the teens. periods of single
digit wind chills are also possible in the long term period.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with deterioration to
mvfr and perhaps brief pockets of ifr late tonight into thursday
morning in rain showers and low ceilings. rain showers will move
west to east through the area late tonight into early thursday
morning, with the heaviest rain most likely to impact sites near
the us-30 corridor (fdy/mfd/cak). can`t rule out some thunder as
well, though confidence is higher further south, closer to
central oh. low-end mvfr and/or ifr ceilings will likely filter
in behind the rain showers thursday morning, before
dissipating with the arrival of a cold front from the north
late thursday morning and afternoon. also can`t rule out some
lower vsbys from mist/drizzle thursday morning, though
confidence was too low for inclusion.

winds are generally favoring a light easterly direction this
afternoon, around 5 knots. winds will shift towards the south
overnight, 5 to 8 knots, before abruptly shifting towards the
north late thursday morning and afternoon with a cold front,
around 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in periods of rain and mixed-
precipitation, including freezing rain, late thursday night into
friday afternoon. low ceilings may linger through saturday.
non-vfr is likely to return on sunday in widespread rain,
transitioning to snow with a strong cold front sunday night into
monday. gusty westerly winds of 30 to 35 knots and occasional
snow showers are likely on monday.

&&

.marine...
changing wind directions through thursday as high pressure moves
across lake erie west to east, followed by a warm front in the
vicinity of the lake for friday and low pressure passing just south
of the lake friday night. this will translate to wave heights less
than 2 feet through early thursday, but increasing to 2-4ft thursday
night into friday as waves become northerly around 10-20kts, and
then easterly 10-20kts. winds variable less than 10kts friday night
through saturday night and wave heights less than 2ft, followed by
strong offshore flow early sunday increasing to 20-25kts. strong
cold front brings northwest winds 30-35kts late sunday through early
monday and wave heights likely in the 6-10ft range.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter storm watch from late thursday night through friday
evening for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...04
near term...04
short term...04
long term...04
aviation...kahn
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
145 pm est wed dec 24 2025

.key messages...

- rain and fog developing overnight. drying out thursday but
remaining cloudy.

- a period of freezing rain is expected friday morning near the
indiana-ohio-michigan state lines. warm enough elsewhere for
"plain" rain.

- remaining mild through the rest of this week. sharply colder
starting monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 144 pm est wed dec 24 2025

abundant cloud cover this afternoon ahead of a warm front currently
across far southern il and in. this warm front slowly lifts north
this evening and, amid modest isentropic ascent (295k) and ample low-
level moisture, a brief period of rain is expected overnight
along with at least patchy fog. temperatures tonight will be in
the mid-30s to near 40, with the exception of hillsdale and
branch counties where temperatures may hold at 32. given the
anticipated rain duration of less then 3 hours, marginal
temperature profiles and a southern push of dry air overnight,
freezing rain concerns are minimal. low level moisture may
become pooled along the warm front tonight, further trapped by a
developing inversion resulting in fog primarily south of us 30.
medium confidence on fog duration given the incoming dry air.
fog may be most prolonged toward central in.

attention then turns to the freezing rain risk for a portion of
our area friday morning. the warm front advances northward yet
again with stout warm air and moisture advection. this is at
odds with slowly-retreating surface high pressure along the
ontario-quebec border. cool easterly flow provides reinforcing
cold air to the low-levels in contrast to a well developed
warm- nose aloft. compared to yesterday, guidance did come in
slightly warmer than 24 hours ago, but not enough to completely
discount a fzra risk. thus, we continue to mention the risk of
fzra for those near the mi-oh-in lines. duration of up to 6
hours could certainly cause areas of slippery travel. additional
model runs will allow us to fine tune the forecast further over
the next 24 hours.

an upper-level ridge centered over the gulf coast will continue to
provide generally mild conditions through the end of the week. south
of us 24, highs will generally reach 50, with those in southern
michigan in the 40s. winter snaps back next week as a deep low
races across the upper great lakes. this sends a cold front
through our area sunday night resulting in windy conditions and
period of rain changing to lake effect snow. highs on monday
will be near 20. preceding this, inherited high temperatures
sunday were again the warmest among other members, requiring a
reduction into the 50s.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1129 am est wed dec 24 2025

dry and primarily vfr conditions will prevail this afternoon
into early this evening in advance of a quick moving frontal
wave moving through tonight. light rain showers and a period of
ifr to low mvfr conditions will accompany this wave with
improvement back to vfr anticipated toward midday thursday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1226 pm est wed dec 24 2025

.key messages...

- cooler today but still slightly above average.

- light rain showers/drizzle will be possible tonight mainly south
of m-59. some freezing drizzle possible in the higher terrain of
oakland, washtenaw, and lenawee. little to no ice accumulation.

- wintry mix likely friday with increasing potential for widespread
freezing rain over much of se mi. ice accumulations of a tenth or
two favored though some locales could approach a quarter inch. an
inch of two of snow possible in the northernmost portions of the
thumb/saginaw valley.

&&

.aviation...

thickening high based cloud through the late period, but with a dry
low level environment ensuring vfr conditions lasting into the early
evening hours. prevailing southeast wind becoming southerly by
evening. narrow moisture axis tied to low pressure lifting across
the ohio valley will offer a limited opportunity for light rain/
drizzle production /04z-08z/ tonight with a general decline in
ceiling heights into lower vfr. temperatures projected to remain
around freezing during this time, offer brief potential for this to
occur as freezing drizzle. confidence in occurrance too limited to
include attm. wind shift to northwesterly behind this wave
overnight, before veering to northerly heading into thursday morning
as strong high pressure to the north takes greater influence. this
transition brings increasing potential for lower stratus expansion
as cold air funnels in. forecast will introduce a period of ifr
ceilings for the morning period.

for dtw...brief chance for light rain/drizzle tonight /04z-08z/.
some patches of freezing drizzle plausible with temperature
hoverning near freezing.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less this morning. moderate late
tonight and tomorrow morning.

* very low for precip type as freezing drizzle tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 320 am est wed dec 24 2025

discussion...

a seasonable day in store for se mi today as highs top out a few
degrees above normal in the mid-upper 30s with high pressure passing
overhead. influence of said high wanes by evening as a weak
shortwave rotates out of the upper midwest into the sw great
lakes/ohio valley late evening-tonight. main accompanying moisture
plume and ascent occur southwest of the region, however areas mainly
south of m-59 see just enough saturation to support drizzle
development after roughly 8pm continuing through 3-5am. temperatures
during this window are forecast to range 31-36 with the potential 31-
32 temps holding over areas along/north of m-59 as well as along the
higher terrain of the glacial moraine from the irish hills up
through northern oakland. in these areas, a window of light freezing
drizzle is possible though given overall qpf very much on the lean
side (only a few hundreths at most) no measurable ice accums
expected.

cold advection follows to start christmas as high pressure sliding
over northern ontario sends a backdoor cold front across lake huron
into se mi. southern areas (south of m-59) stand the best chance to
see temps reach the lower 40s before falling below freezing in the
evening. northern areas are held in the lower to mid 30s given the
earlier frontal passage. this colder air however sets the stage for
more impactful weather with the next system arriving early friday.
developing low pressure over the midwest lifts a warm front toward
southern lower mi with the elevated portions of the frontal slope
arriving around 10-12z. there remains good agreement across the
model space that surface/near-surface temperatures will range from
mid 20s to around 30 fed by persistent east-southeast flow at the
base of the aforementioned northern ontario high. forecast soundings
advertise +2-7c warm layer from roughly 3-9kft over the vast
majority of se mi, save for the far northern cwa (roughly north of m-
46) who`s columns hold near or just below 0c. with the surface low
track holding south across northern in/oh and cool ese flow blunting
northward progression of the front, the trend has been for the
surface warm front to fail to push further north of i-94 if not
stalling over lenawee-monroe keeping temperatures for all areas
north around or below 32 all day. result is a very favorable setup
for prolonged freezing rain for most of the area.

areas of particular sensitivity and lower confidence in p-type at
this time are the northern thumb/saginaw valley who are looking to
reside on the fringe of the elevated warm frontal slope. if warm
advection is more robust (resulting from a more northerly frontal
advance), more wintry mix (freezing rain-sleet) are favored vs a
weaker push of elevated warm advection favoring more snow or snow-
sleet. in a similar vein, these scenarios would likely impact the p-
type over the southern third of the cwa with a stronger warm push
favoring a transition to (liquid) rain vs staying freezing rain.

anomalously moist airmass is drawn north by the low with the
cmce/gefs/eps all showing pw between 0.6-0.9", solidly above the
90th percentile for daily climo, with ensemble mean qpf ranging
between 0.25-0.4". currently, ice accumulations between 0.1-0.2" are
most favored over the majority of the cwa, however should the colder
trend hold (ie surface front fails to lift into se mi) there is
potential for some areas to exceed 0.25". potential snow
accumulations in the far northern portions of the cwa range 0.5-2"
in the current forecast scenario. given this forecast with sub-
warning totals and lower confidence in higher end amounts (at this
time), held off on any watch headlines with this forecast package.

precipitation winds down during the evening friday as low pressure
advances across the central appalachians. low amplitude mid-level
ridging fills in its place for saturday bringing drier weather and
modestly above average temperatures. active pattern looks to
continue to close out the weekend/start the new week as an energetic
northern stream jet allows pacific northwest shortwave(s) to track
into the central conus/great lakes.

marine...

a high pressure system will quickly move across the great lakes this
morning and afternoon before washing out across the western atlantic
tonight. influence of this high pressure will rapidly diminish wind
speeds and gust potential through the morning and will maintain
lighter winds through the day. a second high pressure system will
then progress across the central canadian provinces, arriving over
the james bay by tomorrow evening. wind direction will progress from
northeast to southeast with the arrival of high pressure which will
bring elevated wave heights along the lake huron shoreline. small
craft advisories may be needed through thursday and friday given
favorable fetch increasing wave heights within the nearshore areas.
the shift to east flow will also bring some stronger gusts with wind
gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots across lake huron.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.