Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
313
fxus61 kcle 051915
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
315 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing confidence for accumulating snowfall in
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania on monday night with
increasing potential for a couple inches of snow in the higher
elevations of erie county, pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) a cold pattern will continue across the region through tuesday
with scattered precipitation chances and below normal temperatures.
some snow is possible tonight, but a more clear transition to snow
is expected on monday evening with light snowfall accumulation
expected in ne oh and nw pa.

2) the pattern will shift in the middle of the week with
temperatures returning to normal. dry weather is expected on
wednesday and most of thursday. rain chances may return late in the
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
overall, conditions will be overcast and cool through this
evening with a couple isolated showers that may ripple through
with a surface trough near the area. high pressure will build
from the southwest tonight and allow for a window of dry
weather. temperatures will fall into the 30s with some cold air
advection on the northeast side of the surface high and elevated
winds will have wind chills in the 20s. for monday, an upper
trough will move through the region with a weak surface low and
cold front moving southeast through the forecast area. some rain
showers will be possible, especially in the eastern half of the
forecast area. with broader lift aloft, cold advection over a
warming lake erie, and upslope components in the hills of ne oh
and pa, expecting rain to persist, eventually transitioning to
snow in this region. have continued to maintain pops higher than
the nbm with a broad area of 50%+. not unreasonable to see a
couple tenths of qpf in this region and having accumulating
snowfall. continuing a general theme of 1-3" but some locations
in erie county, pa may try to overachieve if snow showers can
persist. given recent warmth and decreasing nighttime hours,
surface/pavement temperatures will need to fall before
accumulations start becoming impactful and the first half inch
to inch of snow may melt off. lows on monday night will be in
the 20s with wind chills in the teens.


key message 2...
a cold high pressure system enters on tuesday, drying out the
region. this system will shift east for wednesday, keeping dry
conditions in place but allowing temperatures to recover into
the 50s. the next system continues a slowing trend and thursday
is starting to look like a dry day with temperatures above
normal in the mid-to-upper 60s. the next system will enter for
friday and saturday, bringing the next areawide chance of rain.
there could be some potential for storms at the end of the week,
but there is still time to sort out some of those details.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
mainly vfr across the taf sites this afternoon as ceilings
remain just above mvfr (~3.5kft). ceilings will briefly scatter
out later this evening, followed by another round of mvfr
ceilings and rain showers approaching from the west overnight
into monday morning. some snow may mix in at yng/eri where vsbys
are expected to fall as low as ifr at eri monday morning.
elsewhere, rain showers are expected with primarily vfr vsbys.
redevelopment of rain showers is expected towards the end of the
taf period monday afternoon.

winds are generally out of the west this afternoon, 12 to 18
knots with periodic gusts of 25 to 30 knots. winds will diminish
to 10 knots or less overnight, gradually shifting towards the
southwest, before increasing out of the west late monday
morning, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely monday night into tuesday morning in
rain and/or snow showers, particularly across the snowbelt.
non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers thursday night into
friday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions will persist across lake erie into this
evening with west winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 6 feet.
conditions will briefly improve tonight into monday as winds
diminish, though rough conditions may return again monday night into
tuesday as northwest flow of 20 knots arrives across the lake.
another small craft advisory will be needed during this timeframe. a
longer stretch of quieter marine conditions will arrive on wednesday
as high pressure builds across the region. offshore flow will return
across lake erie on thursday into friday, 15 to 25 knots, though
odds of a small craft advisory are low at this time with the highest
winds located in the open waters.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
849
fxus63 kiwx 051811
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
211 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

.key messages...

- notably colder to begin the week. tuesday morning will see
morning lows in the 20s with highs only in the 40s.

- there is a 20-30% chance of light rain showers late tonight
through the monday morning commute.

- becoming warm and spring-like wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 211 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

clouds are gradually clearing from west to east as yesterday`s cold
front tracks east. increasing clouds tonight as a shortwave
drops in from minnesota. while dew points are only in the
upper-20s, temperatures falling tonight into the 30s will help
narrow the gap, while pacific moisture advection and ample
forcing aides in a quick moistening of the profile. a cold
column could bring a couple of snow flakes. otherwise, a quick
dose of rain late tonight through the morning commute from west
to east is expected.

for the remainder of monday, the main vorticity maximum lies across
central michigan, likely keeping any lingering precipitation
north of our forecast area. cold high pressure sets up over the
great lakes monday night when lows will tumble well into the
20s; our coldest night of the week. the michigan state extension
office indicates a few fruit varieties could be susceptible to
these lows in the mid- 20s. back to 1990, our median last
28 degree hard freeze is april 11- 20. so, through that lens,
this cold is still within the bounds of climatology.

high pressure is overhead tuesday resulting in the coldest high
temperatures of the week; low-to-mid 40s. this shifts east by
wednesday in response to strong low pressure developing over the
canadian rockies. warm air advection quickly ramps up and we`ll be
in the 60s and 70s midweek.

we`ll keep a close eye on what could be a wet pattern late week. the
aformentioned low pressure sends a cold front through the midwest
that stalls against a strong southeast us ridge. the combination of
gulf moisture advection and the stalled front could spawn additional
heavy rain. the magnitude of the high pressure will be critical in
potentially steering this rain farther north out of the forecast
area.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1249 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

stratus behind yesterday`s cold front is exiting northwest
indiana. a brief period of mainly clear skies occurs for the
remainder of the daytime hours before clouds increase once more.
an upper-level wave is noted on water vapor across minnesota
racing southeast. time height cross sections show a quick
moistening of the column with strong ascent noted resulting in a
period of rain showers prior to 12z. in its wake, lake induced
cloudiness lingers but should improve to vfr ceilings.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
495
fxus63 kdtx 051921
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
321 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of colder conditions will exist tonight through tuesday
with temperatures remaining below normal during this time.

- potential for a mix of light rain and snow exists late tonight and
again monday afternoon into monday night. a dusting of accumulation
on grassy surfaces will be possible.

- the next good chance for rain will be thursday into friday.

&&

.discussion...

a brief interval of below to well below normal temperatures can be
expected the next couple days as the great lakes region resides
along the southern edge of the broad upper level trough under deep
layer northwest flow. brief mid level subsidence/negative
differential vorticity advection will sustain dry conditions through
the first half of the night and will allow some partial clearing
this evening. a mid level short wave impulse now over nrn mn will
quickly move across se mi overnight. the resulting large scale scale
ascent and deep layer moisture will support a chance of showers.
steep mid level lapses rates will result in a convective component
to the showers. a subtle low level warm layer will advect into the
southern portions of the area overnight, supporting a rain or
rain/snow mix in the south. the thermal profile will be cold enough
to support wet/melting snow in the north.

the passage of this wave will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold
air monday into tuesday. steepening low level lapse rates as a
result of cold air advection and daytime heating monday will result
in expanding diurnal cu and showers mon afternoon. while temps are
expected to rebound into the 40s across most of the area, low wet
bulb zero heights will support some snow in the heavier convective
showers, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
given forecast weak surface based instability, some of these showers
may produce brief intense snowfall rates. there is some indication
in a few hi res solutions of an expanding region of low level
convergence developing along a surface cold front/trough axis
sliding south monday evening/night, warranting a lingering chance of
snow showers. the push of cold air behind this is quite impressive
for early april as 850mb temps drop into the negative teens. this
will drive mon night lows into the 20s and will warrant tuesday
highs only in the 30s to near 40. strong high pressure expanding
across the region will at least support dry conditions on tuesday.

a warming trend will then ensue wednesday into thursday within the
return flow of the departing sfc high and in advance of a closed mid
level wave forecast to move along the cntl us/canadian border
region. as this wave lifts north of the region, it is forecast to
drag an associated cold front into lower mi, paralleling the mid
level flow. the broad array of ensemble guidance generally suggests
high chances for rain late in the week due to the projected slow
movement of this front.

&&

.marine...

the pressure gradient and cold advection weaken tonight, allowing
wnw wind to subside and current headlines to expire. a clipper
system passes through on monday bringing snow showers and an uptick
in north to northwest winds monday night in its wake. gusts monday
night are forecast to peak between 25 and 30 kt before weakening
tuesday morning. high pressure builds in briefly on tuesday, then
flow strengthens out of the south on wednesday as the next low
pressure system tracks into the upper midwest. this system will send
a slow-moving cold front across the great lakes thursday and friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 220 pm edt sun apr 5 2026

aviation...

low pressure now over quebec has left broad cyclonic flow in place
across the great lakes. low vfr ceilings and breezy west flow (gusts
to 30 knots) will persist through the remainder of the afternoon
before conditions improve tonight as winds subside and skies clear.
any clearing will be brief tonight before a quick-hitting clipper
arrives early monday morning. this system lacks deep moisture, but
should have enough instability and lake enhancement to produce a
window of rain and/or snow showers between roughly 08z and 14z. the
instability component of this system results in variable
precipitation rates and p-types, so expect cig/vsby restrictions to
be variable throughout the morning as well. additional scattered
rain-snow showers remain possible in the afternoon as boundary layer
instability stays in tact.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through this afternoon. low
this evening. medium monday.

* moderate for ptype to be rain/snow mix monday morning and monday
afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz361-362.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......tf
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.