Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
848
fxus61 kcle 201855
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
255 pm edt mon apr 20 2026

.what has changed...
a freeze warning remains in effect for most of our cwa from 8
pm this evening to 10 am tuesday morning, except for lucas,
ottawa, sandusky, wood, and hancock counties.

&&

.key messages...
1) one more unseasonably cold night tonight with below freezing
temperatures, especially in ne ohio and nw pa.

2) much warmer air will arrive tuesday and persist through early
next week, but the pattern will turn active with numerous
chances for rain starting this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
water vapor loops show an amplified mid/upper pattern that
remains in place this afternoon characterized by a deep trough
over the eastern conus, closed low offshore of the west coast,
and broad ridge in between across the intermountain west and
plains. the eastern trough continues to keep our region in a nw
flow pattern, with temperatures running a solid 25 degrees below
normal this afternoon. despite the cold, a large area of
surface high pressure sliding into the southern great lakes this
afternoon has allowed most of the lake-effect clouds to
dissipate, and this is supporting plenty of sunshine with
afternoon cumulus.

the cold airmass in place and influence of the surface high will
set up another cold night tonight. much of ne ohio and nw pa
should end up colder than last night given the mostly clear
skies and light winds, so expect widespread lows in the 25-30 f
range in ne ohio and nw pa, with some low 20s in interior nw pa.
however, as the high drifts into the appalachians tonight, low-
level southerly return flow will quickly begin in nw ohio. these
s winds should increase to 5-15 knots by 09z, and this combined
with increasing high level cirrus ahead of a warm front should
allow nw ohio to be quite a bit milder. lows will likely stay in
the low/mid 30s in much of nw ohio. kept lucas, ottawa,
sandusky, wood, and hancock counties out of the freeze warning,
and it is possible that the rest of nw ohio and parts of north
central ohio do not reach freezing either, but it will be close
either way. even if some of the nw and north central counties in
the freeze warning do not reach freezing, they will still have
patchy frost. temperatures will quickly warm after sunrise
tuesday morning in the developing warm air advection pattern.

key message 2...
much warmer, more pleasant temperatures remain on track to begin
tuesday as the surface high continues to drift into the mid
atlantic states allowing for southerly return flow and resultant
warm air advection. a warm front will lift across the region in
the late morning and early afternoon. the main impact should
only be some high and mid-level clouds given a significant
amount of low-level dry air, but the latest href hints at some
light showers or sprinkles possible in nw pa where isentropic
ascent is maximized in the early afternoon. nbm slight chance
pops look reasonable for this. otherwise, the better chance for
rain will hold off until tuesday night and early wednesday
morning as a cold front sags across the region in response to a
mid/upper shortwave dropping through the continued longwave
trough over the northeast conus. low-level moisture return will
be very limited ahead of the front, so this will keep
instability weak, but synoptic support from a modest 60-75 knot
upper jet streak nosing into the central great lakes will
generate an area of showers and a few rumbles of thunder that
will slowly sink southeastward across the region tuesday night
into wednesday morning. most rainfall should only be 0.25 inch
or less, with the greatest amounts likely in nw ohio. canadian
high pressure at the surface building into the central great
lakes behind the front will gradually dry out all areas
wednesday as the boundary slowly pushes south and washes out,
with dry and mild conditions through thursday. daily lake breeze
development will keep lakeshore areas cooler wednesday and
thursday.

a more active but also lower confidence pattern will start to
develop friday and persist through early next week. the closed
mid/upper low off the west coast will gradually move into the
northern plains by friday and evolve into a broader and larger
closed low while the old eastern conus mid/upper trough closes
off into a closed low offshore of new england. this will pinch
mid/upper ridging in between across the ohio valley thursday and
friday. the ridge will gradually shift as the northern plains
closed low tries to come farther east, and that will slowly draw
moisture into our region late friday and friday night ahead of a
cold front. however, like all blocking patterns, timing of this
front is uncertain, and it will likely remain near or just west
of our region through next weekend keeping unsettled conditions
in place. deeper moisture may arrive by monday as the block
attempts to weaken and draw in a stronger sw flow from the
mississippi valley, but evolution is very uncertain friday
through monday. chances for rain and occasional thunder are very
broad friday night through monday, and timing will be fine tuned
as we get closer since it certainly will not rain all the time.


&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
high pressure overhead will gradually move east through this
evening. remaining lake enhanced cloud cover will continue to
fade over the next few hours giving way to widespread clear
conditions. a warm front will lift across terminals bringing
some high level cloud cover tuesday morning and afternoon.
northerly to northwesterly winds have occasionally gusted to
15-20 knots this afternoon. gusts will diminish this evening
with light and variable winds returning tonight. winds favor a
southerly component by tuesday morning with afternoon gusts
20-25 knots possible.

outlook...non-vfr possible tuesday night and wednesday in rain
showers, some isolated thunderstorms are also possible. non-vfr
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms friday and
saturday.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet conditions with light northwest flow continue
across the lake under high pressure. the high will move east as
a warm front lifts across the lake on tuesday which will
increase offshore southerly to southwesterly winds to 12-18
knots tuesday afternoon. a cold front will cross south overnight
tuesday into wednesday morning bringing a brief period of
onshore northwesterly flow. high pressure re-enters behind the
cold front bringing a window of light easterly flow. a system
will enter the region towards the end of the week bringing
increased southerly flow on friday. low pressure is expected to
move across the lake on saturday. no marine headlines are
expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt tuesday for
ohz009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze warning from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt tuesday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 201704
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
104 pm edt mon apr 20 2026

.key messages...

- a return to well above normal temperatures starts tuesday.

- there is a 30% to 40% chance of showers, and perhaps a
thunderstorms, tuesday night. better chances (70-90%) of
showers and storms friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 104 pm edt mon apr 20 2026

after a cold start to the day, temps have rebounded somewhat into
the 40s and eventually some 50s as the caa wanes and shifts east. a
rapid return of warmer air commences tonight and through the
remainder of the week with the only hiccup being a weak disturbance
and associated sfc cold front that pushes through tuesday night with
scattered showers (isolated storm?) as steeping lapse rates and a
bit of an eml settle in with some upper level support. no severe
weather is expected and overall rain amounts should not be
significant.

wednesday into most of thursday night will feature dry and much
warmer conditions as a closed low moves along the international
border towards the area. a few showers or storms could arrive late
thursday night in the west, but better chances look to occur on
friday with likely to cat pops warranted ahead of this feature.
pwats over 1" may signal some locally heavy rain concerns, but the
system appears to be rather progressive so hopefully this doesn`t
become an issue.

temperatures will then drop back to more seasonable levels for this
weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1256 pm edt mon apr 20 2026

a departing ridge of high pressure will result in light south
winds developing this evening. low level gradient will
strengthen overnight as the ridge shifts eastward and sfc
troughing reaches the eastern dakotas into south central
ontario. low level moisture advection will increase from this
pattern as better low level moisture takes circuitous route from
north texas to the corn belt into the southern great lakes.
greater chances of rain will remain northwest of the terminals
through this period but advection of the low level moisture
axis, steeper lapse rates moving in, and pre-frontal forcing
will lead to increased chances of showers/isolated storms
heading toward 00z tuesday evening. it will become windy again
on tuesday with southwest gusts to 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
248 pm edt mon apr 20 2026

.key messages...

- low temperatures dip back into the low to mid 30s tonight, but
increasing surface winds and clouds overnight helping to limit
widespread frost development.

- a slight chance of thunderstorms late tuesday/tuesday evening
south of m-59. no severe weather is anticipated.

- temperatures climb above seasonal normals on tuesday (forecasted
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s), with even warmer air expected
for the end of the workweek.

- rain showers likely by friday evening with possible thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...

near-record cold was observed across southeast michigan this
morning. the 12z kdtx sounding sampled a very chilly air mass with
-10c at the 850 mb level. under the influence of a sprawling high
pressure system, clear skies and calm winds provided ideal
radiational cooling conditions, allowing minimum temperatures to
bottom out in the mid-to-upper 20s. these values were only a couple
of degrees shy of the daily record lows at both mbs and fnt. full
april insolation has since allowed for a respectable recovery, with
temperatures reaching into the 40s late this afternoon.

the synoptic pattern shifts tonight as surface high pressure slides
toward the atlantic coast. while low temperatures will dip into the
low-to-mid 30s, increasing southerly winds and thickening cloud
cover should mitigate widespread frost development. the exception
may be the thumb region, where calmer winds persist longer; however,
with the growing season not yet officially underway for those
northern counties, no frost/freeze headlines are planned.

a much warmer air mass is progged to surge into the region for
tuesday and wednesday. as an elevated warm front lifts through late
tonight and toward sunrise tuesday, a strengthening low-level jet
(llj) of 35-45 knots will drive a corridor of solid moisture
advection, as 850-700 mb specific humidity reaches near 5 g/kg. high-
resolution guidance (including the 3km nam) suggests this forcing
will be sufficient to trigger isolated to scattered sprinkles/light
showers, primarily between 09z and 14z.

by tuesday afternoon, the region will be firmly within the thermal
ridge, with 850 mb temperatures approaching 10c. this supports
widespread highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s toward the ohio
border. we will be monitoring for modest instability to develop along
the southern michigan border by late afternoon as a narrow theta-e
plume advects into the region. model soundings show mucape values of
200 to 500 j/kg, which should be enough to support a chance of
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms for the southern tier of
counties through tuesday evening as a subtle shortwave trough tracks
through the western ohio valley.

the thermal ridge holds firm through mid-week, though a shallow cold
front may attempt to sag south from lake huron, keeping the thumb
several degrees cooler than the rest of the region. high confidence
remains for a more significant warm-up toward the end of the
workweek as the upper-level ridge axis amplifies. eps members
indicate highs potentially reaching the upper 70s by friday, though
timing of a significant cold front and associated shortwave likely
bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast by friday
evening.

&&

.marine...

high pressure maintains light wind and waves across the central
great lakes this afternoon and evening. as the high moves east
overnight, southerly return flow will set up and increase in
magnitude through the morning tuesday. low-level stability is
forecast to cap wind gusts at 20 to 30 kt, highest over central lake
huron. small craft advisories have been issued for the lake huron
nearshore waters where confidence is highest in periods of 25+ kt
wind gusts between 2am and 2pm. a cold front then settles southward
across the region tuesday night, bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the south. lighter wind follows on wednesday
as weaker high pressure settles in. the next low begins to take
shape over the upper midwest midweek, eventually sending a warm
front into the great lakes late thursday into friday. this brings
moderate southeast flow and the next chance for showers and storms.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1257 pm edt mon apr 20 2026

aviation...

with ample daytime heating and mixing ongoing this afternoon, still
expect a few northwest wind gusts this afternoon upwards of 15-20kt.
otherwise, northwest winds relax later this afternoon and back
westerly and then south-southeastly through this evening as high
pressure drops through the region.

scattered to broken mid to high clouds move in overnight from the
northern great lakes region. these clouds are associated with the
next wave of energy progged to track south across the area tuesday
into wednesday. could be a few sprinkles or very light rain showers
around tuesday morning, but confidence was not high enough to
include mentions in the forecast at this time. south winds increase
around daybreak tuesday, then veer more southwesterly with gusts
upwards of 20-25 knots ahead of a weak front sagging south across the
area. tuesday evening there is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms, mainly for areas near and south of kdtw/kyip/kdet.
have no mentions of storms in the tafs at this point, but those
details may need to be added in subsequent forecast updates.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms between 2100z tuesday and 0600z wednesday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt tuesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......tf
aviation.....ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.