Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
759
fxus61 kcle 052342
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
642 pm est fri dec 5 2025

.synopsis...
a cold front moves in from the northwest tonight and stalls
over lake erie on saturday. a weak low moves along the front on
sunday, bringing that cold front eastward across the area. high
pressure builds in on monday before departing to the east coast
on tuesday.

&&

.near term /through saturday night/...
high pressure at the surface and aloft exits slowly e`ward
through tonight as a cold front approaches from the upper
midwest and eventually the western great lakes. odds favor dry
weather through daybreak saturday as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the departing ridge. lows should reach mainly the
15f to 25f range around midnight tonight. readings should then
moderate slightly by daybreak as a tightening mslp gradient
between the surface ridge departing slowly and approaching
front`s surface trough allow s`erly to sw`erly surface winds and
associated low-level waa to increase somewhat in our cwa.

on saturday, a shortwave trough should move from the upper
midwest and western great lakes to the eastern great lakes. at
the surface, the cold front should sweep se`ward across lake erie
and nw oh during the afternoon and essentially stall in the same
area by sunset as the attendant trough overspreads our area from the
north and west. low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold
front, moist-isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis,
weak lake-induced cape (licape) amidst lake surface to 850 mb t
differences near 10c over ~4c lake erie, and the seeder-feeder
process should allow lake-enhanced precip, mainly in the form of
snow and graupel, steady at times per model sounding data, to
develop and stream generally ne`ward over/downwind of lake erie into
portions of western ny saturday morning into early afternoon. during
the late afternoon and early evening, the lake-enhanced precip,
mainly in the form of snow/graupel and steady at times, should shift
s`ward into the primary snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa and vicinity as the
mean low- level flow veers from sw`erly to w`erly and the low/mid-
level thermodynamic environment remains favorable. in addition,
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis may
trigger isolated showers in the form of snow and graupel across ne
oh and nw pa saturday morning through afternoon. daytime snow
accumulations of 1" or less are expected. odds favor dry weather
elsewhere. low-level waa ahead of the cold front should contribute
to afternoon highs reaching the lower to mid 30`s in our cwa.

saturday night: aloft, a very subtle shortwave ridge should build
and then crest e`ward over our region as the first shortwave trough
exits e`ward, a second shortwave trough moves se`ward from the mid
mo valley toward the lower mo valley and vicinity, and a third
shortwave trough moves se`ward from the eastern canadian prairies
toward the northwestern great lakes and vicinity. at the surface,
the aforementioned front should remain essentially stalled in
vicinity of lake erie and nw oh as a low attendant to the second
shortwave trough moves from ne to the lower mo valley and weakens
slightly, while a low attendant to the third shortwave trough
develops and deepens slightly over the northern great lakes.
primarily dry weather is expected in our cwa as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the shortwave ridge. however, a sufficiently-
moist mean low-level flow amidst lake surface to 850 mb t
differences near 13c over ~4c lake erie and weak licape should allow
lake-effect precip, mainly in the form of snow and graupel and
steady at times per model sounding data, to stream generally e`ward
and then ene`ward across the primary snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa and
vicinity as mean low-level flow backs from w`erly to wsw`erly ahead
of the aforementioned second and third shortwave trough axes.
nighttime snow accumulations should be 1" or less. overnight lows
should reach the 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak sunday.

&&

.short term /sunday through sunday night/...
on sunday the shortwave trough farther north should move from
the northwestern great lakes and upper ms valley to the
north-central and southwestern great lakes. the attendant
surface low should deepen further, albeit slightly, as it moves
e`ward from the northern great lakes toward far-northern ny.
also at the surface, the front should remain essentially stalled
in vicinity of lake erie and nw oh through roughly midday. the
front should then sweep se`ward and cross the rest of our
region by early evening. this front will usher-in a colder air
mass. daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 30`s prior to
the arrival of colder air behind the front.

lingering les should stream generally ne`ward and then nne`ward
from lake erie sunday morning through early afternoon as mean
low-level flow backs to sw`erly and then to ssw`erly ahead of
the shortwave trough axis. low/mid-level moisture advection well
ahead of the shortwave trough axis should allow convergence and
associated ascent along the surface and upper-reaches of the
front to trigger scattered and primarily light snow showers
across our entire cwa. in addition, the seeder-feeder process
and release of weak licape via low-level convergence and ascent
along the front should result in a brief burst of steadier lake-
enhanced snow over lake erie and in/near the counties along the
central and eastern portions of the lake. by early evening,
prior to sunset, a nw`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-
cold/moist air over/downwind of lake erie and weak licape should
allow primarily light lake-effect snow (les) to stream generally
se`ward from central and eastern portions of the lake. daytime
snow accumulations should total 1" or less, but localized totals
up to 2" are possible in the higher terrain of erie county, pa.

during sunday night, the shortwave trough axis should move
e`ward to lake ontario and central pa as a shortwave ridge
builds from the north-central u.s. at the surface, the low
should move from far-northern ny to the gulf of maine and be
followed by a surface ridge building from the upper midwest and
vicinity. primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. as mean low-level flow veers
from nw`erly to nne`erly amidst weak licape, lingering and
light les should stream generally se`ward, then s`ward, and
eventually ssw`ward before dissipating by daybreak as licape
wanes via a lowering subsidence inversion and synoptic low-level
dry air advection. additional snow accumulations are forecast to
be 1" or less. low-level caa behind the front should contribute
to lows reaching mainly the 10f to lower 20`s range by daybreak
monday.

&&

.long term /monday through friday/...
on monday through monday night, current odds favor dry weather
since the above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should
continue to build from the west on monday and then crest e`ward
over our cwa and vicinity monday night. along the backside of
the ridge, a moisture-starved warm front should sweep ne`ward
through our region monday night. continued caa at the surface
and aloft on monday will contribute to afternoon highs reaching
only the 20`s to 30f. monday evening, lows are expected to reach
mainly the 5f to 15f range. readings should begin to moderate
by the predawn hours of tuesday morning given the development of
waa at the surface and aloft ahead of and behind the warm front.

large discrepancies in nwp model guidance exist tuesday through
friday of the upcoming week, leading to low confidence in the
official forecast. in general, cyclonic and primarily w`erly to
nw`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
affect our region. at the surface, net troughing should impact
northern oh and nw pa. we should remain in the relatively-warm
sector through tuesday night before a cold front sweeps
generally e`ward through our region on wednesday through
wednesday night. northern oh and nw pa should then remain in the
cold sector through friday. daytime highs should reach mainly
the mid to upper 30`s on tuesday and the mid 30`s to lower 40`s
on wednesday, prior to the cold front passage. in between,
overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s to lower 30`s
around daybreak wednesday. later in the week, overnight lows
should reach the 20`s around daybreak thursday and be followed
by afternoon highs in the lower to mid 30`s. lows around 15f to
25f around daybreak friday should be followed by afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 20`s amidst caa at the surface and aloft,
behind the cold front.

periods of primarily snow are expected due to the following:
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes;
convergence and moist ascent along surface trough axes and the
cold front. snow accumulations are possible, but uncertain at
this juncture. moderation of the tropospheric column at/near the
surface should allow snow to mix with or change to rain at times
on tuesday through wednesday evening. in addition, behind the
cold front, the environment should support les occurrence overnight
wednesday night through friday, but all of the following remain
very uncertain: mean low-level flow direction; les placement,
intensity, and amounts.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions are observed areawide. a stratus deck with non-
vfr ceilings reside just to our southeast in southeast ohio,
northern west virginia and much of pennsylvania. latest model
forecasts have this stratus deck getting pretty close to the
forecast area, including our southeast taf sites such as kyng
and kcak. currently keeping it out of the taf, but will keep an
eye on its progression.

a cold front approaches from the northwest and settles over lake
erie on saturday. ahead of the front, should see conditions
become overcast with initially vfr ceilings before dropping
towards mvfr late saturday morning into the early afternoon
hours. ifr is likely across much of the area during the
afternoon/evening hours, especially across our southern taf
sites at kmfd, kcak, and kyng. snow is most likely along the
eastern shoreline of lake erie, especially east of willowick and
near erie, pa where 1-2 sm snow is expected after ~21z. some
models have a few light snow showers with the front elsewhere
but kept them out of the taf for now.

light southwest winds over the next few hours will increase to
around 8-12 knots tonight before diminishing to 5 knots or less
after sunset on saturday.

outlook...periods of ifr is expected areawide with widespread
light snow on sunday. non-vfr possible again with snow on
tuesday and a rain/snow mix on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds increase 15-25kts ahead of a saturday cold front,
becoming westerly after 15z saturday and wave heights cleveland and
east becoming 3-5ft. winds ease briefly saturday night, then sunday
back to around 10-20kts out of the northwest and wave heights 3-5ft
once again. winds/wave heights variable through monday night
becoming southwesterly tuesday increasing to 20-30kts, keeping them
just sub-gale for now as a deepening area of low pressure
approaches.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am to 10 pm est saturday for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...saunders
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...saunders
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
913
fxus63 kiwx 052222
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
522 pm est fri dec 5 2025

.key messages...

- light lake effect snow and patchy freezing drizzle is possible
late tonight into saturday morning mainly for locations near
lake michigan. little to no accumulation is expected.

- continued cold through the weekend, then even colder monday
with highs around 20 and lows in the single digits with wind
chills dropping to -5 to -10 at times.

- light snow saturday night into sunday, snow amounts 1 to 3
inches possible. impacts appear that they will be relatively
limited.

- a couple more disturbances move through by midweek again
bringing chances for snowfall and even some rain/freezing
drizzle at times with moderating temperatures.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 248 pm est fri dec 5 2025

a weak disturbance rippling through the quasi-zonal flow aloft
below the arctic low circulation centered over the hudson bay
canada. this will bring some lake effect showers to areas near
lake michigan this evening. some freezing drizzle may mix in
with the warmer air from over the warmer lake waters this
evening before switching over to mostly snow showers overnight
tonight. accumulations expected will be less than an inch and
impacts will be minor.

slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow with highs in the lower
30s ahead of a trough axis and associated frontal band that
will move through beginning saturday evening which will bring
chances across the area for snowfall, there may be a short
period with the onset that some freezing drizzle mixes in before
becoming all snow. with this system we are looking at
accumulations from less than an inch to around 3 inches. the
heavier amounts will be the northwestern portions of the cwa and
on the areas near lake michigan.

another arctic intrusion pushes in on the backside of the
frontal passage and brings very cold temperatures back to the
area with single digit lows expected on both monday and tuesday
mornings. wind chills will also range from the -5 to -10 degree
range with luckily relatively light winds forecasted.

we then have a more northwesterly flow aloft across the area
beginning monday into the middle of the week which we will see a
parade of clipper type systems that will traverse the region.
this will bring periods of snowfall with even a mix of rainfall
with the slightly warmer (thicker) synoptic heights that will
also bring some warmer conditions with highs right around
freezing to the mid 30s. however, another trough will drop
southward into the region bringing another reinforcing shot of
cold air to the area by thursday into next weekend with highs
once again in the 20s and lows in the low teens to single digits
by next saturday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 522 pm est fri dec 5 2025

a mid level shortwave over the upper midwest will dampen east-
southeast through the area later tonight into saturday morning.
this system may bring some patchy freezing drizzle or snow
flurries to mainly south bend during this time, though
confidence is low with a prob30 maintained. a trend toward
primarily mvfr cigs the main impact otherwise later tonight
into saturday, with a period of ifr not out of the question
saturday morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 pm est saturday for lmz043.
small craft advisory until 1 am est saturday for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
588
fxus63 kdtx 052318
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
618 pm est fri dec 5 2025

.key messages...

- wind chills tonight fall into the lower teens to upper single
digits. sub zero wind chills possible again sunday night.

- below normal temperatures persist this weekend and into next week.

- chance for light snow late tonight into saturday morning. some
light freezing drizzle possible mainly south of i-69 saturday
morning. little to no snow/ice accumulations.

- another chance of light snow daytime sunday. most areas forecast
to see 1-1.5" of new snow accumulation.

&&

.aviation...

a weak 850-700mb frontal boundary and isentropic ascent has led to
prevailing stratus at 4.0-6.0 kft agl across much of southeast
michigan. weak and disorganized shortwave energy pushing across the
state is expected to maintain cloud throughout the night. a trailing
cold front will eventually push into southeast michigan late
saturday morning. moisture advection in advance of this cold front
is expected to result in moistening and saturation eventually in the
1.5 to 4.0 kft agl layer, from north to south. there is a potential
for light precipitation including light freezing drizzle or mist
south of i 69 sometime between 12-16z saturday. confidence is too
low that it will occur to include in the tafs. mvfr ceilings are
expected saturday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 pm est fri dec 5 2025

discussion...

only a modest temperature recovery today after the record setting
cold start to the morning (for most of se mi) with highs topping out
in the mid 20s, some 15 degrees below normal. increasing cloud cover
this afternoon marks the arrival of the prefrontal trough and weak
lead moisture transport into southern mi. this only results in
partial column saturation however as the lowest levels remain
unsaturated due to the resident dry near-surface arctic airmass
precluding any precip chances through the daylight hours. frontal
boundary is then set to slowly advance across lower mi late tonight
into saturday morning. forcing is weak though forecast soundings
suggest its sufficient to support slightly deeper column saturation,
though still either only grazing or just shy of the dgz. result is
the chance for scattered light snow showers focused mostly north of
m-59 through mid saturday morning where moisture depths are
greatest. for the southern areas, lesser moisture lends to higher
probabilities for insufficient nuclei and favoring light patchy
freezing drizzle instead of snow p-type. accumulations of either
snow or freezing drizzle will be very light at only a dusting or
trace, respectively.

next chances for snow arrive sunday morning as a compact southern
stream shortwave ejecting from the central rockies quickly slides
into the southern great lakes/ohio valley. lead edge of isentropic
ascent overspreads the cwa between 6-11am with the peak rates
arriving 1-3hrs afterwards. a northern stream trough digging over
the northern great lakes looks to cause an orphaning of the original
surface circulation over the ohio valley with a reorganization in a
new circulation over the eastern great lakes by late sunday
afternoon. locally this favors rapidly diminishing of synoptic
snowfall over the course of the afternoon with a total end by 5-6pm.
accumulations are held in check by the speed of the system with most
areas seeing around 1-1.5" of new snow though a few locales could
pick up near 2". low level winds set up out of the northwest to
north-northwest post-fropa sunday night offering the shot at some
scattered lake effect snow showers primarily in the eastern thumb,
though this is highly dependent on getting nnw over more nw. should
nnw winds manifest, areas in the thumb will be able to see snow
showers for a good chunk of sunday night offering an additional 0.5-
1" of accumulation potential.

arctic high pressure briefly follows for monday before a series of
clippers drop across the northern plains and into the great lakes
through most of next week. se mi still looks to reside under the
baroclinic zone favoring tracks near or directly over the region.
this also offers a more complicated p-type forecast as the freezing
line likely hangs over the cwa.

marine...

moderate to strong southwest flow ahead of a cold front through
tonight. the airmass remains cold and unstable near the lake
surface, thus gusts around 30 knots are expected to persist, with
even a few isolated/short lived gusts to gales over central sections
of lake huron. the cold front, which likely produces some light snow
showers, looks to wash out tomorrow as it moves through. this should
lead to light winds saturday night, 15 knots or less. yet another
cold front and surge of cold air to move in during sunday, as 850 mb
temps lower in the negative mid teens. northwest winds gusting
between 25-30 knots appear likely late in the day. however, winds
then look to veer to the north-northeast fairly quickly and weaken
sunday night as high pressure quickly builds in for monday morning.
none-the-less, large waves of 6+ feet will build over the southern
lake huron. some of these larger waves look to clip the nearshore
waters of lake huron as winds veer around, and expect another round
of small craft advisories to be issued.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est saturday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kdk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
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