Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
223 pm est sun nov 1 2026

.what has changed...
made a few adjustments to pops through monday based on latest
high resolution guidance, but otherwise no changes needed with
this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue to drift east through tuesday with
gradually warming temperatures expected. light, scattered rain
showers are possible in portions of the area late tonight into
monday.


2) confidence is increasing that a low pressure will impact the
region midweek, resulting in widespread rain showers wednesday
and thursday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will continue to drift east of the area over the
next couple of days, resulting in increasing moisture and
gradually increasing temperatures through tuesday. similar to
yesterday, there will likely be virga through this evening with
rain chances increasing slightly as shortwave energy aloft moves
into the region tonight through monday. the best chance of
showers will be across western zones where there will be better
low to mid-level moisture. upper level ridging will briefly
build into the area late monday night/early tuesday which will
nudge any showers out of the local area by tuesday morning. warm
air advection will provide above normal temperatures through at
least tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s monday giving
way to high temps in the low to mid 70s tuesday afternoon. a few
spots east of i-71 will likely reach the upper 70s on tuesday.

key message 2...
the pattern will start to shift late tuesday into wednesday as a
deep upper trough approaches from the west. a cold front
will approach the local area wednesday and cross the cwa on
thursday. this will result in a high probability of showers
throughout the day wednesday with rain chances continuing into
thursday. as of now, it appears that impacts from the mid to
late week system will be minimal. there may be some moderate to
heavy rain, but recent dry weather will mitigate any flooding
issues. there`s also some potential for thunder on wednesday,
although instability will likely be marginal and severe weather
is not anticipated. it appears that lake-enhanced rain chances
will linger through friday and possibly into next weekend as an
unsettled pattern aloft pushes a series of upper troughs across
the local area. temperatures will remain above normal through
the middle of the week before moderating late week and into the
weekend. by saturday, highs are forecast to be in the cooler but
more seasonable 50s.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
mainly vfr conditions will continue through this taf period with
broken to overcast high level cloudiness. winds will be light 5
to 10 knots from the south or southeast.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain on wednesday and thursday.

&&

.marine...
south/southwest flow around 10 knots or less will persist over
lake erie through monday as high pressure shifts east of the
local area. by monday night, offshore flow will likely deepen to
10 to 15 knots before increasing to 15 to 20 knots as a cold
front approaches from the west tuesday night through wednesday.
small craft advisories may be needed if winds trend several
knots higher, but at this point any waves over 4 feet will be
focused into the open waters. winds will shift to the southwest
and diminish to 10 to 15 knots behind the cold front thursday
before flow becomes more northwesterly during the day friday. as
of now, winds are forecast to remain below 20 knots friday, but
may need small craft advisories if wind speeds trend closer to
20 knots in future updates.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...77
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
245 pm est sun nov 1 2026

.key messages...

- some light showers or patchy drizzle and sprinkles will likely linger
at times tonight with low chances of rain (20-30%) continuing
into monday. any rainfall amounts are expected to be light.

- very warm on tuesday and breezy followed by increasing rain
chances through wednesday (60-80% chance).

- rain showers may linger at times into thursday and friday,
with highs cooling back to the mid-upper 50s by friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm est sun nov 1 2026

broad isentropic ascent is ongoing this afternoon with a few pockets
of light rain/sprinkles across northwest/central indiana with the
more notable area of isentropic forcing working north from central
indiana. as was the case yesterday subcloud layer remains relatively
dry with stronger moisture transport over the past 24 hours
displaced well to the west. will likely maintain some slight chance
pops as this area of stronger advective forcing lifts northward into
this evening. this light precip may also be aided by a weak,
slow moving mid/upper level short wave trough evident on water
vapor imagery this afternoon across eastern iowa/northwest
illinois. this initial short wave is expected to exit northwest
ohio toward midday monday which should allow for slight veering
of flow and some weak speed convergence at nose of stronger low
level flow monday into monday evening. this should provide more
favorable low level flow trajectories for better low level
moisture transport across mid ms rvr valley to shift east. a few
uncertainties remain regarding precip chances for monday
including the strength of secondary upstream wave emanating from
larger scale western conus negative upper height anomaly, and
also mid level moisture profiles may be scoured out a bit late
tonight into early monday with the passage of the initial wave
with possibility of a drizzly precip type late tonight into
monday am. with uncertainty into how moisture depths will play
into afternoon/evening rain chances, will cap higher model
blended pops at 20-30% for now. highs in mid 60s monday may be a
bit optimistic for some areas given expected shallow mixing
heights/cloud cover.

for monday night into tuesday will be monitoring evolution of larger
scale upper trough across the four corners region. all indications
still suggest most of cyclogenesis occuring in lee of rockies before
system becomes more vertically stacked late tuesday afternoon.
likely/categorical pops have been maintained for tuesday night as
primary low jet/low level moisture convergence axes shift eastward
downstream of central plains upper low. otherwise, large scale upper
dynamics are not overly impressive with this rapidly occluding
system with larger scale low level height falls induced by upper
forcing largely remaining southwest of the local area. this
evolution and fairly rapid eastward spread of low level jet
axis/mid level dry slot should keep rainfall amounts on the
lighter side locally (quarter of an inch or less) for tuesday
night into wednesday am. strengthening low level height gradient
should provide breezy/windy conditions with this system,
although core of low level jet axis not arriving until tuesday
night may mitigate these winds somewhat. the main story with
this system will be the much above normal temperatures and a
potential of some locations approaching record highs for tuesday
and record warm low temps for the date.

temps trend cooler wed into thu behind the occluded front with some
scattered showers possible thursday as moisture depths due to
some wrap around moisture. even as low level thermal trough
settles firmly across the area by friday, highs should still be
near normal for the date (highs in mid 50s). medium range
guidance spread in deterministic/ensemble solutions increases
by this weekend with overall consensus in eastern pacific jet
causing flow amplification once again with another development
of an upper low expected. large scale baroclinicity should be
weak, so this pattern should favor quick transition to occluded
systems with no significant precip chances evident at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1139 am est sun nov 1 2026

sprinkles and scattered light rain showers are expected to
persist this afternoon and evening. winds are light and variable
this afternoon and should gradually increase overnight to about
10 kts out of the southeast as waa ramps up. vfr ceilings and
visibilities will prevail with ceilings between 8-10 kft
overnight. there may be a brief lull overnight but another round
of showers should arrive tomorrow morning. ceilings will likely
quickly drop between 06-12z. expect mvfr ceilings and light
rain showers along and south of us 30 by daybreak.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
347 pm est sun nov 1 2026

.key messages...

- mild and mostly cloudy through the early week.

- near record warmth and breezy on tuesday.

- increasing likelihood for light rainfall on wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

a background of rising geopotential heights dominates the forecast
over the next 24 hours as a longwave ridge builds in downstream of
an amplified pacific wave tracking over the rockies. a weak
disturbance embedded within the ridge is noted in wv imagery across
the western great lakes this afternoon. apart from a few light
showers that will be possible near the ohio border, this wave will
pass overhead with little fanfare tonight given continued dry
advection within light low-level southerly flow. mid-level cloud
cover will remain prevalent, keeping temps mild in the mid 40s and
lower 50s for an overnight low.

low pressure takes shape over the central/northern plains on monday
while se mi remains under the stable influence of deep layer
ridging. there is a brief window for mostly sunny skies in the
morning, then a mid-level shortwave emanating from the low helps
usher in a ridge of sfc-700mb theta-e with increasing low cloud
cover in the afternoon. ascent within the saturated layer is weak
but enough confidence exists to warrant a 15 to 30% chance of light
showers or drizzle monday evening and overnight.

another period of height rises ensues daytime tuesday as the mid-
level wave closes off over the upper midwest. this favors dry,
breezy, and very warm conditions on tuesday as the upstream system
ushers in 850mb temps of 12 to 13c, which model soundings indicate
may be briefly mixed to. this sends highs into the mid 70s, some 15
degrees above normal and near daily max temp records. latest nbm
advertises a 40% chance to exceed 75 degrees for much of se mi.

the mature system`s warm conveyor belt inches in from the west early
wednesday with models in agreement on light rainfall arriving by
late morning or early afternoon. 70 to 90% pop looks good with
guidance in line with qpf on the order of 0.25". a narrow corridor
of weak instability will exist just ahead of the cold front
wednesday evening, supportive of an isolated rumble of thunder. with
the later frontal passage, high temps wednesday will again be very
mild in the lower 70s. by thursday and friday, progressively cooler
conditions settle in amidst scattered light showers as the occluded
low meanders over the region.

&&

.marine...

low pressure coming out of the four corners region will lift
northeast into the western great lakes late tuesday. this will lead
to increasing southerly winds over the central great lakes, with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected over the open waters of lake huron
tuesday and wednesday. warm air (lower teens at 850 mb) should keep
mixing depths in check, but brief isolated gusts above 30 knots cab
not be ruled. enough moisture is expected to advect into the great
lakes region to support widespread showers on wednesday. additional
scattered showers are possible on thursday as cold cyclonic flow
behind the cold front kicks in. the low pressure looks to weaken as
it tracks across lake superior and the upper peninsula on thursday.
this should result in northwest to north winds staying under 25
knots thursday night onto friday. however, with the long northerly
fetch and cold air, waves building to 4 feet or greater over the
southern lake huron basin are likely.

&&

.climate...

record high max temperatures for november 3rd:

detroit: 76 degrees (set in 2015)
flint: 79 degrees (set in 2015)
saginaw: 74 degrees (set in 2015)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1125 am est sun nov 1 2026

aviation...

the 12z dtx sounding showed very dry air in the low levels, courtesy
of the strong high pressure system centered over the mid atlantic.
the region of low level dry air will persist across se mi through
daybreak monday. meanwhile, west-southwest flow aloft will sustain
an influx of higher based clouds through the taf period. the
gradient flow will support continued light south-southeast winds
into monday morning.

for dtw...available guidance and regional observations indicate high
probabilities that ceiling heights will remain above 5000 feet today
and tonight. sub 5000 ft cloud based courtesy of low level moisture
advection will arrive late monday morning morning as a more
southerly flow drives the low level moisture now residing across the
lower ohio valley into se mi.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 ft late monday morning and afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...tf
marine.......sf
climate......tf
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.