Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
242
fxus61 kcle 142332
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
732 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

.what has changed...
the next round of wind headlines has been issued for sunday
afternoon through early monday, for strong southerly wind gusts
ahead of an approaching cold front. southwesterly winds will remain
gusty behind the cold front on monday, and portions of the area may
need a wind advisory to continue through the day monday. continued
to refine snow chances and amounts monday night into tuesday, and
increased accumulations slightly across portions of the snowbelt.

&&

.key messages...
1) southerly wind gusts ramp up sunday afternoon through sunday
night, shifting southwest and remaining gusty behind a cold front on
monday. there is also a low potential for severe thunderstorms along
the cold front late sunday night into early monday morning.

2) wintry weather returns late monday and tuesday. wind chills are
expected to bottom out in the single digits monday night into early
tuesday. accumulating snow is likely in the primary snowbelt region
monday night into tuesday, with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

3) limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend
expected for the second half of the upcoming work-week.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
two potent shortwaves will phase over the plains on sunday, allowing
a full-latitude trough to deepen, take on a negative tilt, and
quickly close off while swinging into the great lakes sunday night
into monday. the upper-level evolution will guide a deepening
surface low pressure from the central plains into the northern great
lakes sunday night into monday. locally, a strong warm front will
lift through ahead of the deepening low early sunday, followed by a
strong cold front late sunday night or early monday morning. the main
local impact from this system will be another round of wind.

synoptic wind gust potential:

a very strong (60-70kt+ at 850mb, 40-50kt+ at 925mb) southerly low-
level jet will overspread the area quickly from the west sunday
afternoon and evening, remaining overhead sunday night until the
cold front moves through. it is always tricky to determine how much
these very strong, warm advecting low-level jets will mix to the
surface. warm air advection is natural upglide, and the strongest
jet moves overhead at night when mixing is also typically at a
minimum. still, will likely see a period of stronger gusty winds
particularly west of the i-71 corridor sunday afternoon and early
evening as daytime heating supports a period of deeper mixing into
the strengthening low-level jet. wind gusts may back off at times
after sunset, though as the low-level jet intensifies into sunday
night and the cold front approaches can`t rule out occasionally
stronger gusts continuing to make it down. the other area of concern
is downsloping along the eastern lakeshore, particularly in erie
county, pa. feel the potential for advisory-level gusts of over 40
knots or 46 mph is high enough across our western cwa beginning
sunday afternoon, and in downsloping areas closer to the eastern
lakeshore, to justify a wind advisory kicking in at 2 pm/18z sunday.
given the magnitude of the low-level jet and greater downslope
enhancement across erie county, pa, went with a high wind watch for
that county, where peak gusts in the downsloping sunday night may
exceed warning criteria of 50 knots or 58 mph. ran the advisory and
watch through 12z/8 am monday across the board for now. southeastern
portions of our area generally do not see as much wind in these types
of setups, so while the forecast calls for peak gusts into the 40 mph
range in our southeast sunday evening and night, left them out of the
advisory at the moment.

winds shift southwesterly behind the cold front monday morning, and
will remain quite brisk through the day monday and even into monday
night along the eastern lakeshore. winds aloft behind the cold front
will not be nearly as strong as ahead of it...generally in the
35-45kt range at 850mb and 30-40kt range at 925mb. still, steepening
low-level lapse rates behind the cold front, natural downglide in
the cold advection, and a fairly tight pressure gradient and quick
pressure rises through the day monday will support much more
efficient momentum transfer to the surface behind the cold front. the
current forecast flirts with advisory-criteria gusts behind the cold
front on monday, especially across northwest oh and near the
lakeshore farther east, with a general 35-45 mph forecast across most
of the area and up to 50 mph possible in some spots. wind gusts will
very gradually ease monday night into tuesday as deep low pressure
gradually fills and exits.

future headline considerations are...1) whether we need a high- end
advisory or warning for erie county, pa for the downsloping winds
sunday night...2) whether or not portions of the current wind
headlines need extended through the day monday...and 3) whether or
not southeastern portions of the area will need a wind advisory at
any point during this event, with the main window of concern in that
area being overnight sunday night into pre-dawn monday.

severe weather potential:

a strongly-forced quasi-linear-convective-system (qlcs) will likely
take shape to our west by sunday evening along the approaching cold
front. instability across our area will be minimal to none, though
very strong linear forcing with the front itself will attempt to
maintain some form of forced, low-topped convective line east into
our forecast area. a lack of a strong near-surface inversion and very
robust wind fields aloft could allow more organized line segments to
maintain a strong wind/low-end tornado risk into our forecast area
late sunday night into pre-dawn monday. overall confidence in the
severe weather threat is on the lower end given the expected lack of
instability and what should be a weakening trend in the convection
across our area, though is worth keeping in mind. the spc day 2
outlook does bring a slight risk (level 2/5) for damaging winds into
the i-75 corridor, with a marginal risk (level 1/5) to just west of
the cleveland-akron-canton corridor. if dew points end up pushing
into the mid 50s ahead of the front, it would increase the potential
for minimal (up to 100 j/kg) sbcape to maintain through the night,
which would increase confidence in severe potential. meanwhile, dew
points staying just slightly cooler in the upper 40s or lower 50s
would increase confidence in convection weakening and severe
potential diminishing across our local area. it is worth noting that
given the very minimal amount of instability, any severe weather
would likely occur in the absence of lightning.

precip timing & amounts:

a developing band of moist isentropic lift ahead of the approaching
warm front may bring a bit of light snow to our northern counties
tonight, with little to no accumulation. otherwise, mainly dry
weather is expected through sunday with a band of rain expected to
accompany the front late sunday night into early monday. overall qpf
appears modest, in the 0.30-0.60" range across the area, which
should keep any flooding concerns at bay.

key message #2:
a sizable chunk of mid-winter-like air will swing across the area
monday into tuesday, bringing a brief return to much colder and in
some areas snowy weather.

snow timing & potential amounts:
the back edge of the rain band with the cold front may briefly mix
with snow before exiting to the east on monday. otherwise, generally
moist cyclonic flow and steepening low-level lapse rates through the
day on monday should support disorganized flurries/snow showers
through the afternoon. a sharp low to mid-level trough axis swings
across the area late monday afternoon into monday night, which along
with moisture from lake michigan will likely bring greater potential
for scattered snow showers area-wide. by later monday night and
tuesday, cold west to west-northwest flow will align over lake erie,
allowing for a period of lake effect snow into the primary snowbelt
region of northeast ohio and northwest pa as some flurries/lighter
snow showers linger across the rest of the area. ridging builds later
tuesday into tuesday night, which should cause general flurries/snow
showers across the area to dissipate and cause lake effect in the
primary snowbelt to significantly slow and eventually end.

snow accumulations outside of the primary snowbelt will not be much,
generally under an inch. there could be some slick spots outside of
the snowbelt monday night as temperatures drop well below freezing if
any of the more general scattered snow showers are heavy enough to
drop a light accumulation. in the snowbelt, guidance is suggesting a
fairly brief window from overnight monday night into tuesday morning
where well-aligned flow, moderate lake-inducied instability, fairly
high equilibrium levels (near 10k feet) and respectably deep
moisture depth to 8-10k feet should combine to allow for a short-
lived window for fairly organized and efficient lake effect
snow...particularly as wind fields slacken and allow for residence
time and shoreline convergence to increase. increased snow amounts a
bit with this update in the favored west flow locales, particularly
the higher terrain slightly inland from the lakeshore. do feel that
an advisory may eventually be needed for the core snowbelt.

temperatures and wind chills:
while not especially hazardous, as we are now well into mid-march and
have some 70+ degree weather under our belt the colder temperatures
the first half of this week will be quite jarring. expect quickly
falling temperatures on monday through the day, with wind chills
quickly falling into the 10s late monday afternoon/evening. lows will
range from the mid 10s to lower 20s monday night/early tuesday, with
highs on tuesday stuck in the 20s. parts of the area will likely dip
into the 10s one more time tuesday night. in terms of wind chills,
the coldest values will be overnight monday night into tuesday
morning, bottoming out in the single digits above 0.

key message #3:
a gradual warming trend is expected to begin on wednesday, with more
seasonable to perhaps somewhat milder than average temperatures
likely by friday and saturday. a generally benign weather pattern is
expected wednesday through saturday, with minor precipitation chances
wednesday into wednesday night and again friday night into saturday.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
vfr. mid level clouds become a high level cloud deck overnight
as low level winds increase out of the southeast with strong low
pressure developing to the west. ceilings will lower through the
day sunday but remaining vfr within the time frame of the
forecast. as the pressure gradient increases with the
strengthening low pressure to the west, winds gusts could be in
the 35-45kt range by the end of the taf period. the challenging
part of the taf will be whether or not llws becomes an issue,
but will go with gusts instead for this set, and this will need
to looked at again for the 06z issuance.


outlook...non-vfr likely to return in showers and storms sunday
night. non-vfr will likely linger in scattered rain showers
changing to snow showers on monday with lake effect snow
possible monday night into tuesday across the snowbelt.

&&

.marine...
marine weather conditions will become very rough again on lake erie
starting sunday and continuing through tuesday evening. the lake has
calmed down today with a fair weather and lighter winds/waves. winds
for this rest of the afternoon will become variable by this evening
and then shift from the southeast overnight 10 to 20 knots by dawn
sunday. a developing low pressure system will track into the central
great lakes region late sunday through monday. this surface low will
rapidly deepen to around 980 mb or a little lower by monday morning.
winds will increase from the south 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to
40 knots sunday through sunday night over the lake. a small craft
advisory has been issued sunday morning through late sunday night.
by monday morning, winds will further increase and shift from the
southwest to west 35 knots with the passage of a strong cold front
late sunday night. a gale watch has been issued for all of lake erie
monday morning through tuesday morning. gales are likely. waves will
increase sunday and further build in height monday and tuesday.
waves will be 8 to 15 in the open waters and extremely rough. the
storm system will pull away by tuesday with a gradual decrease in
winds and waves but still remaining rough through at least tuesday
evening. after the likely gales, there will likely need addition sca
tuesday into tuesday night. another clipper system will shift the
winds back from the south 10 to 20 knots mid-week.

as the strong winds shift southwesterly to westerly behind the
strong cold front late sunday night into monday morning, water
levels will likely drop in the western basin of lake erie. it is
likely that a low water advisory will be needed monday into tuesday
as levels drop below the critical mark for safe marine navigation.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 2 pm sunday to 8 am edt monday for ohz003-
006>014-017>020-027>031-036-037-047-089.
pa...wind advisory from 2 pm sunday to 8 am edt monday for paz003.
high wind watch from sunday afternoon through monday morning
for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am sunday to 8 am edt monday for
lez142>149.
gale watch from monday morning through tuesday morning for
lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...26
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
190
fxus63 kiwx 142323
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
723 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

.key messages...

- wind advisory now in effect late sunday morning through
sunday evening for 45-55 mph southerly gusts.

- a line of showers and thunderstorms moves through sunday evening.
damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

- windy and turning sharply colder late sunday night into monday
with snow showers likely, especially in southwest michigan and
around the greater south bend area where accumulations and
travel impacts are expected through tuesday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 117 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

a strong ~170 kt upper jet streak will dive into the central us
carving out an unseasonably strong 500 hpa height minimum that will
send a deepening sfc cyclone northeast from ia sunday to the
northern great lakes monday. this will be a classic early
spring storm system for the midwest with headline level winds,
thunderstorm chances, impressive temperatures swings and
cold/snow.

the warm advection wing associated with a developing 60-70 kt low
level jet will bring the system warm front though later tonight into
sunday morning. the region of moist isentropic ascent in advance of
this warm front looks to primarily pass north of the area late
today into tonight with virga and mid level clouds locally,
save for along and north of the mi stateline where a low chance
pop (20-30%) was retained for light measurable precip.

a very windy warm sector then builds in during the day on sunday as
temperatures make a run a 70f. forecast soundings and href/nbm probs
are highly supportive of frequent 45-55 mph gusts late sunday
morning into the afternoon/evening, with a few gusts up to 60
mph not out the question. hopefully not the intensity of yesterday`s
wind event with a wind advisory issued this go around given more
limited mixing depths.

a very narrow ribbon on low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints low-mid
50s) likely accompanies the system cold front advancing east through
the area sunday evening. this luckily won`t be enough to generate
much in the way of instability, but with such a strong wind field
and frontal forcing can not rule out damaging winds if a low topped
squall line (thin, potentially devoid of lightning) tracks through.
this has been a pretty consistent signal in cams with no changes to
spc`s slight risk (2 out 5) primarily for damaging winds.

sharply colder air wraps in through the backside of the deep low
lifting into northern michigan late sunday night into monday with an
unpleasant visit from winter. 700 mb delta t`s drop to near 30c with
favorable synoptic support/moisture for les snow/blowing snow within
the pivoting deformation axis monday, transitioning to pure le
monday night into tuesday morning. advisory level amounts/impacts
appear probable in our favored wnw flow les belts, including
the south bend area into southwest mi, but will hold off on
issuing for now given this is still 4-5 periods out. some gusty
snow showers likely make it well inland as well monday into
monday evening with minor accums possible. wind chills likely
fall to near zero monday night into tuesday morning otherwise,
with a clipper system to follow through around tue night-wed am
with a chance (40- 60%) for light system snow. the second half
of the week then features a warming warming trend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 721 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

a warm front lifts northeastward tonight as a low pressure system
approaches from the southwest. dry air at the low levels keep flight
conditions in vfr through the period. the main issue will be the
strong gusty winds that have the potential to reach between 45 and
55 mph after 15z sunday. a cold front arrives between 20 and 00z,
probably closer to 00z, bringing the chance for showers and
potentially some thunderstorms should we get enough instability. the
main threat with the cold front will be for strong to damaging
winds. winds relax below wind advisory threshold a couple hours
after sunset and a couple hours after frontal passage sunday
night, but probably maintain 25 to 40 kt gusts.

with the passage of the warm front tonight, will include some llws
that continues into late morning sunday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ sunday to midnight
edt /11 pm cdt/ sunday night for inz005>009-012>015-017-
018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory from 11 am sunday to midnight edt sunday night
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory from 11 am sunday to midnight edt sunday night
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...gale watch from sunday morning through sunday evening for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
098
fxus63 kdtx 150339
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1139 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

.key messages...

- accumulating snowfall arrives tonight (mainly north of m-59), but
areas north of m-46 could see snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches.
a winter weather advisory begins at midnight for the tri cities and
northern thumb.

- snow changes over to rain showers sunday morning with a period of
sleet or snow pellets and freezing rain during the transition,
mainly along/north of i-69. the winter weather advisory for the tri
cities and northern thumb expires at 11 am.

- another round of high wind develops sunday afternoon. a wind
advisory begins at 11 am for the area along and south of i-69,
including metro detroit to the ohio border.

- a line of showers and thunderstorms moves through lower mi sunday
night, with some strong to severe storms possible.

- windy monday with gusts to 45 mph possible, and also turning much
colder with snow showers as temperatures fall from the 50s into the
20s by monday evening.

- wind chills minimize around zero tuesday morning with highs only
in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.aviation...

mid level frontal forcing will continue to increase during the night
as it slowly shifts northward. while low level dry air has maintain
just virga over most of se mi, ongoing strengthening of the elevated
front and subsequent low level moistening will allow snow to reach
the sfc by the start of the 06z taf issuance, from ptk northward.
the increased strengthening of the front as it shifts northward will
result in a more prolonged period of snow at mbs overnight. in fact,
the intensifying southerly flow atop the shallow stable layer will
drive a plume of warm air aloft late tonight/early sun morning. this
will result in a period of freezing rain and sleet at mbs, with a
lower chance at fnt. growth of the daytime mixed layer within the
warm sector across se mi sunday afternoon will support strong
southerly winds, with gusts over 30 knots at time.

for dtw...recent guidance is now indicating the better chances for
snow has shifted north of dtw.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft at times tonight and
sunday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 838 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

update...

the going forecast remains valid with no need for any forecast
adjustments this evening. the 00z dtx sounding did have quite a bit
of dry air below 700mb. the regional radar does however support
increasing frontogenetical forcing ongoing across srn lower mi. while
there is still a considerable amount of virga, sfc obs indicate light
snow is reaching the ground in far sw lower mi. the 18z hi res suite
also remain supportive of current snow and ice totals, including in
the advisory area across the north.

prev discussion...
issued at 403 pm edt sat mar 14 2026

discussion...

fleeting influence of high pressure produced a pleasant day by
recent standards; highlighted by dry weather, slowly increasing high
clouds, and much reduced wind speed. highs in the mid 30s to around
40 are still a few degrees below normal for mid march.

the increasing high clouds are signs of the next low pressure system
and associated round of precipitation already on our doorstep. mid
afternoon satellite, radar, and surface obs show an impressive
pattern of virga just south of the in/oh border that steadily
migrates into lower mi this evening. one of the forecast challenges
is evaluating onset timing as low level saturation occurs while the
band continues to move steadily northward. consensus of 12z
deterministic model runs and href mean agree well on a scenario that
just grazes metro detroit with a dusting of snow this evening then
increases considerably with northward extent during the late evening
and overnight. forcing evolves from elevated moisture transport into
a strong ageostrophic circulation to more of a purely low level jet
driven scenario as the low pressure system approaches after
midnight. gradually decreasing stability leads to a burst of higher
snowfall rate north of i-69 and eventually a cellular/showery wintry
mix as the 50 kt low level drives the warm nose northward. snow and
wintry mix are too brief for a headline along the i-69 corridor.
farther north, the winter weather advisory is in effect for the tri
cities and northern thumb where a quick accumulation up to 3 inches
occurs with the mix of sleet/pellets and freezing rain toward
sunrise. the advisory is in effect through the morning until surface
temperatures rise above freezing.

precipitation exits northward by noon as the system warm sector
builds into lower mi and exchanges winter weather for wind gust
hazards. the key here is development of a ssw wind direction that
neutralizes the great lakes stabilizing influence on the boundary
layer. a morning to early afternoon time window is available for
daytime heating, and this reflected in the development of lower
clouds/cumulus in cam output. model soundings show this developing
as a result of well mixed boundary layer conditions gaining access
to the 50+ kt sw low level jet. surface wind gusts easily reach the
45 mph wind advisory threshold, especially by mid afternoon into
early evening. there is some uncertainty on how far north of the i-
69 corridor that the full warm sector is able to reach, however it
is likely that the wind advisory will be expanded in area and
extended in time sunday night and monday as the deepening low
pressure system sweeps a strong cold front across the region.

prior to the cold front, the warm sector of this system will be
firmly rooted across se mi. the advisory worthy ssw wind is
projected to help lift high temperatures toward 70 degrees sunday
afternoon from the ohio border up to the northern suburbs of
detroit. href mean produces accompanying surface td in the mid 50s
by sunday evening to set the stage for thunderstorm concerns sunday
night into monday morning. the marginal to slight risk is maintained
in the day 2 convective outlook for lower mi out of respect for the
strong wind profile up against lower instability prospects. the
system struggles to maintain both surface based and mucape after
sunset, and especially after midnight as surface wind projections
indicate a tendency to pinch off the low level moisture axis ahead
of the cold front. even so, any surface based convection will have
damaging wind potential in the strongly forced environment until the
front sweeps eastward monday morning.

morning high temperatures near 50 fall rapidly to below freezing
monday afternoon in a return to mid march winter conditions in the
great lakes. the inbound cold air and strong low pressure forcing
set up a lake effect snow shower/squall scenario for the afternoon
into monday evening. wind advisory worthy wind gusts continuing
through the day enhance the squall potential when combined with mid
march daytime instability. the cold air surge then takes
temperatures down into the teens and wind chill to near to below
zero for the mid week period.

marine...

high pressure has brought about a brief period of lighter winds,
with wind speeds and gusts rapidly ramping up through tomorrow
morning and afternoon as an anomalously strong low pressure system
travels across the great lakes. low pressure will travel from
southern lake michigan late tomorrow evening, strengthening as it
moves in across northern lower michigan by monday morning and
afternoon. this initially brings a surge of warm air on sunday which
will produce stable over-lake conditions. higher stability will
reside across the southern great lakes where the warmest air enters,
which will work to keep gusts just below gales as as strong low
level jet enters. farther north, more neutral low-level profiles
will provide better chances for gales starting early sunday morning.
as the low continues to strengthen over the great lakes, the
pressure gradient will rapidly intensify with cold arctic air then
wrapping around the low and into the great lakes late monday into
tuesday. this will then bring the likely chance for gales including
some high end gales through tuesday morning. gale warnings are in
effect for all of the great lakes.

additionally, prolonged winter weather will be likely with this
system. snow initial moves from south to north across the great
lakes tomorrow morning, with sleet/freezing rain setting up over
north lake huron late in the day sunday, rain to the south. snow
showers, including some embedded snow squalls, are then likely
monday as the arctic air enters.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 11 am edt sunday for miz047>049-
053>055.

wind advisory from 11 am sunday to midnight edt sunday night for
miz060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning from 8 am sunday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz361-362.

gale warning from 8 pm sunday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz363-
441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory from 11 am sunday to 8 am edt monday for
lhz421-422.

gale warning from 8 am monday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz421-422.

small craft advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt sunday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 11 am sunday to 5 am edt monday for
lcz460.

gale warning from 5 am monday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 11 am sunday to 5 am edt monday for
lez444.

gale warning from 5 am monday to 4 pm edt tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
update.......sc
discussion...bt
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.