Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

...00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
shower onset on saturday has delayed a bit, especially across
eastern counties. chance of thunder remains, but given the
timing widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.
heavy rain remains the primary concern.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms become more widespread late
saturday through sunday. heavy rain is the primary concern with
a few stronger storms possible sunday afternoon and evening.

2) high pressure should provide some relief from precipitation
for the start of next week before rain chances return midweek.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the nearly stationary boundary that has lingered across the ohio
valley will finally begin to move on saturday, lifting north as
a warm front. this boundary couple with a midlevel shortwave
will result in widespread showers pushing across the area
beginning saturday afternoon into the evening. there is a narrow
corridor roughly from findlay to marion where some strong to
severe storms may occur with strong winds the primary threat,
but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. this corridor is the
most likely to see these as daytime instability increases
concurrent with the synoptic forcing. as the storms slowly
spread east, areas will gradually begin to lose that daytime
instability keeping the severe potential to a minimum. by late
tomorrow evening, the entire area should see some showers. to
highlight the scattered severe potential, spc has kept the
corridor from marion to findlay in a day 2 slight with a
marginal extending further east to a line extending roughly from
sandusky to canton.

the bigger concern with these widespread showers is the very
heavy and efficient rainfall that is expected to be associated
with them. deepening warm cloud layers combined with pwat values
in excess of 2" falling on already saturate surfaces could
result in localized flooding. at times, storm motion may also
becoming parallel to mean flow, suggesting the potential for
isolated training storms to develop which would only enhance the
flood potential. to highlight this concern, wpc has put the
entire area (except far neoh and nwpa) in a day 2 slight risk
ero.


key message 2...
after this shortwave and associated surface low move a cold
front east on sunday, high pressure is expected to build east
over the area and allow for a brief reprieve from precipitation
across the area for the start of next week. chances of
precipitation look to increase wednesday into thursday as a low
pressure system moves into the region from the central us.
models have this midweek system developing into a more robust
synoptic trough with more support aloft. model timing and
positioning of this low still diverge quite a bit, but this may
be another period to keep an eye on for heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe weather.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
mainly vfr ceilings and conditions are expected for this taf
time window tonight through saturday evening. there may be some
light fog 3sm to 5sm tonight for taf sites away from the
lakeshore. there is the potential for some low stratus ceilings
developing at fdy between 09z through 14z saturday morning.
otherwise, there could be some mvfr ceilings at fdy for several
hours saturday morning. vfr ceilings are expected elsewhere.
wins will be light and variable 5 knots of less becoming a light
south or southeasterly wind 5 knots towards the end of the taf
period. cle and eri will have a lake breeze between 5 and 10
knots during this taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms return
saturday night through sunday evening. high pressure will build
behind a cold front monday afternoon and continue into wednesday
morning.

&&

.marine...
as high pressure exits the upper great lakes, low pressure and
its associated frontal system will move eastward across the
upper great lakes. a warm front will cross lake erie saturday
night into sunday morning, followed by a cold front sunday
evening into sunday night. offshore flow, meeting or exceeding
20 knots, is possible saturday. chances for winds >20 knots and
waves >4 ft increase sunday into sunday night, as winds shift
out of the west to northwest. a small craft advisory and beach
hazard statement may be needed this forecast period.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...77
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
952 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight risk for severe weather on saturday with two rounds
of storms possible. one round of storms between 5-10 am edt
and another from 2-11 pm edt. damaging winds will be the main
threat.

- heavy rain and scattered flooding continue to pose threats
through the weekend. a flood watch is in effect for much of
the area south of us route 30 from late tonight through
saturday evening.

- dry conditions return monday and tuesday.

&&

.update...
issued at 950 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

no major changes anticipated with the evening update. some
persistent rain showers have been noted across far northeast
indiana where diurnal instability was maximized today with some
contribution of low level convergence from enhanced easterly
flow from eastern great lakes. the primary focus for late
tonight into saturday am will be expectation of showers and
storms redeveloping across southern ia/northern mo/west central
il as a modest low level jet impinges on pronounced low level
boundary. as a mid level wave across the corn belt slowly
traverses eastward tonight, synoptic setup should favor some
northward retreat of this boundary. however, expected convection
could modulate the position of this boundary. latest higher res
guidance still supports heaviest rainfall with a potential of
greater than an inch generally covered by the pre-existing flood
watch. given moist antecedent conditions across portions of nw
ohio and possible mcv migrating into this area later saturday
afternoon/evening, did extend the flood watch to van wert/allen
co oh counties. some isolated wind potential is possible after
10 or 11z across the far south although some question persists
as to how far north modest mlcape axis can progress. previous
forecast remains on track and no major changes anticipated at
this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 125 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on
saturday, august 15th, although the forecast is still somewhat
uncertain due to potential for two separate rounds of storms. a
stationary front that has brought multiple rounds of rain and
storms over the past few days will lift northward saturday
morning as a warm front, bringing the warm and humid airmass
back overhead. synoptically, our northwest flow `ring of fire`
pattern continues with a building ridge over the south central
us. cams are in solid agreement that an mcs develops in iowa
tonight and that this will be the feature to watch into tomorrow
morning. this mcs should move east through northern illinois
and reach northwest indiana between 08-11z saturday morning.
despite the diurnally unfavorable timing, this system should
maintain its strength given adequate 0-6 km shear of 35-40 kts.
given a linear storm mode, damaging winds will be the main
threat from ~5 to 10 am edt saturday. this system should weaken
as it pushes east, so i`d expect the best potential for any
strong to severe storms to be mainly west of in-15 in northwest
and north central indiana. another round of strong to severe
storms is possible in the afternoon and evening, mainly between
2-11 pm edt along and east of i-69 in the slight risk area.
models vary widely on a solution but 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear,
100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 srh, and a narrow corridor of moderate
instability (up to 2000 j/kg sbcape) may develop. this would be
a favorable environment for damaging winds and an isolated,
brief tornado. the afternoon round is highly conditional
depending on what happens in the morning and if there is any
cloud debris leftover that prevents clearing. it`s possible that
the morning round may be the main show and that nothing
develops in the afternoon and evening if the atmosphere is
worked over.

additional showers and storms are possible sunday, although they are
expected to be sub-severe. wpc does have our entire forecast area in
a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on saturday and
areas south of us 24 in a marginal risk on sunday. given that the
ground is so saturated south of us 30, where 6-10"+ of rain has
fallen since this past tuesday, it won`t be hard to have scattered
occurrences of renewed flooding. far northern indiana, northwest
ohio, and far southern lower michigan have escaped the worst of the
rain recently but should repeated rounds of showers and storms track
over these areas saturday and again sunday, some concern for
flooding could develop. precipitable water values will once again be
at or above 2 inches, with the nam and rap even suggesting potential
for them to be as high as 2.5 inches! with such high moisture
content in the airmass overhead (99th percentile pwats), any storm
could be efficient rainfall producer with rain rates between 1-2"
per hour. turn around, don`t drown if you encounter a flooded
roadway! in addition, depending on where the heaviest rain falls,
some rivers in northeast and east-central indiana that are currently
in action or minor flood stage may stay steady or see rises this
weekend.

a welcome break from daily rain and storm chances is ahead! we
finally see a reprieve in the `ring of fire` pattern monday and
tuesday as high pressure briefly builds across the great lakes for
36-48 hours. this will allow for the area to dry out, floodwaters to
recede, and for river levels to fall. temperatures will be
seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

another chance for rain and storms comes wednesday with a cold
front, although it may be short lived. medium and long range
guidance hints at potential for another dry period by the end of the
week into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 745 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

a few showers have been attempting to develop past few hours
across extreme northeast indiana and south central lower
michigan where sfc temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s
yielding some sfc based instability. chances of showers at
terminals look more minimal this evening with attention shifting
upstream for likely convective initiation late this
evening/early overnight. these storms are expected to develop in
vicinity of a modest low level let impinging on low level
boundary across northern mo/west central il. while synoptic low
level flow will favor northeast movement of this boundary, some
possibility exists that convection could limit northward extent
of its progress into saturday morning. this could keep heaviest
showers/storms south of the terminals, but overall not
expecting much change with the 00z taf with showers
overspreading terminals after 11z. given possibility of a
southward trend in higher resolution models, thunder may be of a
bit lower confidence but will continue with prob30 mention at
kfwa. otherwise overnight, some patchy fog development is
possible given weak flow north of the boundary.

the question for late this period will be on evolution of
potential mcv leftover from the overnight convection in terms of
its strength, timing, and track. some moderate instability is
possible across northeast indiana during the afternoon with a
possibility that kfwa will at least be located on northern
periphery of forcing with this feature. best chance of thunder
toward end of this period should be at kfwa, but will hold off
on mention at this forecast distance given uncertainties.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 4 am edt /3 am cdt/ saturday through saturday
evening for inz012-013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
oh...flood watch from saturday morning through saturday evening for
ohz024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1106 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

.key messages...

- increasing chances for showers and possibly some thunderstorms
tomorrow. heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding is possible,
particularly along and south of the i-94 corridor.

- showers and thunderstorms chances continue through sunday.

&&

.aviation...

mid clouds continue to spread east across southern michigan.
ceilings are expected to remain vfr as these mid clouds arrive and
slow nocturnal cooling through the early morning hours. these clouds
should help limit fog development early saturday morning. skies up
near mbs may remain clear most of the night, right along the edge of
the cloud cover moving in from the west. thus, will need to keep an
eye on trends up that way for any br development up that way.

light winds prevail tonight, veering southeast tomorrow. up near
mbs, another lake breeze boundary is expect to push inland off of
the saginaw bay area. thus, locally expect winds to flip from the
east to northeast saturday afternoon/evening and increase in speed a
bit. not overly excited about precipitation chances for saturday.
models continue to delay the arrival of precipitation, now closer to
saturday night if it sneaks into our area. so have opted to keep
mentions of showers or thunderstorms out of the tafs for now, but
have introduced mvfr ceilings at most terminals.

d21/dtw convection...currently do not have thunderstorms mentioned
in the tafs. better chances for thunderstorm activity on saturday
looks to remain south of the d21 airspace.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less into early saturday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 342 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

discussion...

outside of a very low chance for a stray shower along a convergent
lake boundary derived from lake st. clair/lake erie, dry conditions
continue under the influence of a high pressure system that will
progress across ontario. attention will turn back to active
conditions across the upper mid-west/plains surrounding organization
and progression of an mcs/mcv. progression of this system into the
southern great lakes/ohio river valley is expected through the day
tomorrow, into the evening hours. specifically for the southern
great lakes, the thermodynamic environment remains unfavorable for
organized strong convection. pre-storm environment highlights
essentially absent surface-based instability with mucape building to
a few hundred j/kg towards i-94 through the day. the more meaningful
instability gradient is expected to develop and hold across central
indiana through southern ohio, which is where the bulk of convective
activity is expected to reside. if any developing mcv takes a
slightly more northern trajectory relative to modeled guidance, this
could locally augment ascent and modify the kinematic/thermodynamic
environment and bring stronger storm potential, but current guidance
offers little indication that these meso processes would be
sufficient to over the broad scale deficiencies. this scenario is
highlighted in the latest swody2 where a marginal risk for severe
weather holds along/south of i-94.

much more plausible will be increasing rain shower chances as deep
moisture increases ahead of the system. pw values rise aoa 2 inches,
near the 99.5th percentile w.r.t august climatology. aforementioned
weak instability with poor mid-level lapse rates should limit
convective potential, though some isolated embedded thunder and
locally heavy rainfall remains possibly given the nature of the
subtropical airmass. rain and thunderstorm chances to continue
through sunday with better instability in place. passage of this
system with convectively enhanced low pressure will help to push a
weak cold front across the region. rain chances end after passage of
the front late sunday night to monday morning. drier conditions are
favored through the early week period with highs holding in the low
80s.

&

marine...

high pressure now centered over northern lake superior on its way to
the eastern lakes by saturday morning. winds are mostly under 10
knots across the waters but northeasterly flow could lead to some
locally higher gusts in saginaw bay and southern lake huron this
afternoon and evening. winds then turn southerly late saturday and
increase to around 20 knots ahead of a cold front that will sweep
through saturday night. this front will bring the next chance of
thunderstorms to the region as well. winds then shift to the
northwest on sunday behind the front.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....ja
discussion...am
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.