Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
700
fxus61 kcle 171135
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 am edt wed jun 17 2026

.what has changed...
the enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather for today has
been expanded east to include locations along and west of the
i-75 corridor. otherwise, the forecast largely remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across much of
the area this evening into tonight. all severe weather hazards
and heavy rainfall are possible.

3) gusty non-thunderstorm winds are likely this evening through
thursday.

4) below normal temperatures and periodic showers are possible
thursday through early next week. best chance of rain will be
sunday into monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an unseasonably deep 980mb low pressure system will move east
across the great lakes region today through early thursday. the
low will lift a warm front across the local area early this
evening, followed by a cold front tonight into early thursday
morning. showers and thunderstorms will likely develop due to
isentropic lift ahead of the warm front late this afternoon into
this evening with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms
moving east into the area later this evening and into the
overnight hours. there`s still some uncertainty with timing,
especially with the second round later this evening, but it
appears that the second round will move into the toledo area
after 8-9 pm and into the cleveland area after midnight.

while a few strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be completely
ruled out with the first round of convection, the better chance
of severe weather will arrive ahead of the cold front later
tonight. the environment will be conducive for severe
thunderstorms with an unseasonable 60 to 70 knot llj over the
local area and dew points climbing into the 60s. the impressive
wind field will result in ample wind shear as these storms move
into the area, although instability will be pretty limited at
this point. in an environment like this, however, it won`t take
much instability for organized convection to maintain itself.
guidance still supports a broken line of supercells congealing
into more of a qlcs at some point tonight, though there`s some
uncertainty in where/when that will happen. either way, storms
will likely weaken as they encounter slightly more stable air in
the eastern half of the area late tonight.

the best chance of severe weather will be across the western
half of the area. the enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been
expanded east to the i-75 corridor and now includes the western
part of the toledo metro area, bowling green, and findlay.
meanwhile, a slight risk (level 2 of 5) stretches east to just
east of i-77 with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) spanning from
just east of i-77 into far western pa. all severe weather
hazards will be on the table given the amount of shear in place,
however locations generally west of i-71 have the greatest
potential of seeing significant damaging wind gusts in addition
to tornadoes and large hail.

behind the warm front, pwat values will increase to 1.75 to 2
inches, which is right around the daily maximum. the unusually
high pwat values in combination with "tall, skinny cape" will
prime the atmosphere for heavy to torrential rainfall rates this
evening into tonight. flow may be nearly parallel to the
frontal boundary which may result in some training, however
storm motion will be quite fast which will help limit residence
time over one location. there`s quite a spread in the highest
axes of qpf amongst guidance members which results in
uncertainty in the locations of the greatest flooding risk.
while there will probably be localized flooding (and possibly
flash flooding) somewhere in the area, confidence in the
location is too low to warrant a flood watch at this time.

key message 2...
strong wind gusts are likely outside of thunderstorms tonight
through much of thursday. there will probably be a period of
wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph with the best llj ahead of the cold
front tonight. locally higher gusts are possible, but it`s
possible that these gusts are largely convective. forecast
soundings also suggest that the strong wind gusts could be
isolated at times due to inefficient vertical mixing. if these
strong gusts end up materializing outside of thunderstorms, a
wind advisory may be needed for tonight. additional gusty winds
are likely behind the front during the day thursday with
sustained westerly winds to 30 mph and gusts to 35 to 45 mph
likely areawide. this would be the second opportunity for a wind
advisory. as mentioned in the previous discussion, events like
this typically happen during a time of year when leaves are not
on trees. leafed out trees will be more vulnerable to strong
winds and sustain damage more easily, which could result in
more power outages in comparison to similar similar gusts during
the cold season.

key message 3...
cold air advection on the back side of the low will result in
scattered rain showers downwind from lake erie through
thursday. from there, dry weather is expected before rain
chances return sunday afternoon through monday. temperatures
will generally remain a little bit below normal over the next
several days with highs in the 70s expected. lows will drop into
the 50s thursday night through saturday night.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
widespread vfr conditions are expected to persist into this
evening before a deepening low pressure system moves into the
region and conditions across the area diminish. initially this
evening, a warm front will lift north across the area and may
result in isolated convection, although timing or extent of that
round looks to be minimal. the more widespread severe weather
potential will begin around 00z for western terminals and spread
east. with any storms that develop, strong winds and tornadoes will
be the primary concern although large hail is possible. in the
most well developed storms, conditions will likely deteriorate
to mvfr and possibly ifr visibilities. these conditions are not
expected to be persistent and the timing remains uncertain, so
opted to handle most of that ifr conditions in prob30 for the
western terminals.

in addition to the possible strong storms, strong non-
thunderstorm winds are expected to ramp up tonight and persist
through thursday. winds for much of today will be southwesterly
at 5-12 knots before quickly increasing from the south-southwest
this evening to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. these
strong winds will spread east overnight as a llj jet of 60-70
knots pushes across the area. winds will gradually back to
become west-southwesterly by thursday morning, but remain
elevated at 15-20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr will
continue through friday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure lingering over the area into this afternoon will keep
fairly pleasant marine conditions present across lake erie with
southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots. given offshore flow, waves will
remain 1-2 feet into the evening.

very hazardous marine conditions arrive late this evening and will
stick around through thursday as a deepening low pressure system
moves into the region. associated with this low, a strong cold front
is expected to push east across lake erie beginning near 00z
thursday, bringing strong winds across the basin. initial winds
ahead of the cold front will be 20 to 25 knots from the south-
southeast before backing to become more westerly by thursday
morning. some winds may be as high as 30 knots at times, with
locally higher still possible in any convection that develops. as
the winds gain a more westerly component, wave heights will quickly
increase to 4 to 6 feet in the western basin lakeshore and 6 to 8
feet across the central and eastern lakeshore. locally higher waves
up to 10 feet are possible at times, especially in the open waters.
these conditions will be dangerous to small crafts and will also
result in a high risk of rip currents. swimming and boating will be
dangerous on thursday. in addition to the hazardous conditions,
strong southwest winds, there is also a potential for water levels
in the western basin to fall below the critical mark for safe
navigation tonight into thursday. to highlight these concerns, both
a small craft advisory and beach hazards statement have been issued
and we will continue to monitor water levels in coming forecasts.
conditions will improve across lake erie on friday with northwest
winds of 10 to 20 knots expected, but wave heights only climbing to
1 to 4 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from this evening through thursday
evening for ohz003-007-009>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from this evening through thursday
evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
thursday for lez142>149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
574
fxus63 kiwx 171040
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt wed jun 17 2026

.key messages...

- two rounds of storms are expected today (1-5pm edt and
5pm-12am edt). there is a low chance of severe weather with
the first round and a much higher chance with the second
round.

- all hazards will be possible across the entire area with round
2 including strong tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and
flooding. a flood watch is in effect for areas along and north
of us-24.

- quiet weather is expected thursday through saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 308 am edt wed jun 17 2026

all focus is on potential severe weather/flooding threat later
today. the stage is set for widespread and/or significant severe
weather but unfortunately there are a few possible failure points
that reduce confidence. a seasonably strong 130+ kt upper jet will
move into the southern great lakes later today, carving out an
impressive pv anomaly (by june standards) over michigan.
corresponding tightening of the low-mid level gradient occurs as
well with winds speeds all the way from 850 to 500mb solidly at or
above 75 kts. a strong surge of warm/moist air advection arrives by
midday and this will bring the first round of storms roughly 16-21z.
there will be a severe risk for this first round but it will depend
on exact timing. some cam`s show an earlier arrival (16-18z) with
convection outpacing the better forcing for ascent and limiting
diurnal instability but some cam`s suggest an arrival closer to 19-
21z which would feature better moisture convergence/instability and
mid/upper level support. damaging winds would be the main concern
but isolated hail and tornadoes can`t be ruled out with this round
either.

main severe weather focus remains on round 2 this evening as surface
low/cold front cross the area. hard to remember a time with a more
favorable hodograph for significant tornadoes in this area with
backed surface wind and nearly 70 kt flow a mere 1 km up. 0-1km
helicity values could easily exceed 500 m2/s2. further, lcl`s may be
as low as 500m per most forecast soundings. instability,
particularly in the low levels, will be the key feature to monitor
and will dictate the location and severity of storms. this aspect of
the forecast is lower confidence, especially in light of 00z
guidance. the better midlevel lapse rates now look to bypass us to
the south (and still only 7 c/km at best). impressive low level
moisture surge compensates for lackluster midlevel lapse rates but
some forecast soundings are looking awfully stable, particularly in
the lowest 1-3km, which would limit the severe threat. however, as
we know around here, it doesn`t take much instability at all to
generate tornadoes given impressive kinematics, low lcl`s, strong
synoptic support, and a boundary in the vicinity. this will be a day
of closely monitoring the mesoscale environment and much will depend
on the exact timing and evolution of round 1. while some failure
points exist, it is important to remain vigilant given the potential
for strong tornadoes. also, while the highest tornado probabilities
remain south of us-30 and west of i-69 where better instability
resides, the warm front location near the michigan border (and
perhaps even further north) will need to be watched very closely as
better helicity exists there and the tornado threat could be just as
high or higher if any minor instability develops there. timing
appears to be roughly 21-04z. in addition to the tornado threat,
will also have to watch potential for wake low development
which could bring damaging winds behind the line of storms into
the late evening. regardless of wake low development, it will be
breezy into the overnight and on thursday. hail threat is a bit
lower given poor lapse rates but any organized supercell will
still be capable of generating some large hail.

also of concern is the possibility of heavy rain/flooding given the
potential for multiple rounds of convection training east-west
across the area today. pw values reach or exceed 2 inches with a
very moist profile throughout the column. warm cloud layers and mbe
velocities are on the marginal side for a significant flooding
threat and storm motions will be fast. however, still see potential
for a quick 2-3 inches in some locations (particularly in our nw)
and this will be capable of at least isolated pockets of flooding
and impacts. have therefore issued a flood watch for areas along and
north of us-24. (flood risk appears a bit lower south of 24).

outside of some gusty winds tomorrow, no weather concerns for
thursday-saturday. another system appears possible on sunday but
focus remained on today`s hazards.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 640 am edt wed jun 17 2026

strong warm/moist air advection ahead of approaching trough will
bring widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. the best chances still appear with the
cold front during the evening hours but thunder chances are
increasing for the first round and a tempo may be necessary
(holding prob30 for now). strong winds and brief ifr conditions
are likely with these storms. return to vfr expected overnight
but breezy conditions will persist.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 2 pm edt /1 pm cdt/ this afternoon through
late tonight for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>025-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight
for ohz001-002-004-005-015.
mi...flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
283
fxus63 kdtx 171608
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1208 pm edt wed jun 17 2026

.key messages...

- widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected this evening. heavy
rainfall is likely which may lead to localized flooding, especially
in urban areas. a flood watch is in effect for areas south of m-59.
the potential also exists for severe weather in the same area
tonight, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes possible.

- breezy on thursday with westerly wind gusts of up to 35 mph.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the week
and this weekend.

&&

.update...

sent a quick update of grids and text products to cover the evolution
this afternoon with the northern part of the il mcs. not many
changes for the afternoon with clouds, a shrinking rain shield moving
into the southwest half of the forecast area, and the resulting cap
on afternoon temperature progression. most temps will hold steady or
fall as the thicker clouds and rain moves into the forecast area
later this afternoon.

early look at the 12z models all had a reasonably good representation
of this mcs and its influence on the afternoon and evening convection
over the great lakes and ohio/mid ms river valleys. there is an
overall agreement in more of a conditional threat to any severe over
se mi this evening, along with a lessening of the threat from heavy
rain as the potential heavy rain axis is likely to shift a little
north. there won`t be any changes to the evening forecast or the
flood watch area with this update, but that is possible later this
afternoon after a full diagnosis of the 12z suite.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 712 am edt wed jun 17 2026

aviation...

shortwave ridging over the central great lakes, a persistent mixed
southwesterly wind, and a short nighttime seemingly was adequate in
preventing lower stratus across southeast michigan this morning. vfr
conditions are in place at all sites. dynamic upper level low
pressure system will bring volatile atmospheric conditions to
southeast michigan this evening. strong, compact low pressure system
is set to lift across southeast michigan between 23-05z. very strong
lift with deep moisture will result in torrential rainfall rates
with any thunderstorm activity. the potential exists for severe
weather as well this evening. did include +tsra in tempo groups. low
level moisture in the wake of the low should lead to mvfr stratus.
mixed west wind of 15 to 25 knots thursday.

d21/dtw convection...widespread rainfall moves in by the late
afternoon to evening. widespread thunderstorms expected between 01
to 05z with severe weather possible.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5kft today. high tonight.

* high for thunderstorms this evening.

prev discussion...
issued at 350 am edt wed jun 17 2026

discussion...

a seasonably strong shortwave will ride into the great lakes today
at the nose of a 130+ kt upper jet streak. remarkable deep layer
ascent will spread in ahead of this wave, producing a deep surface
low that swings across the midwest this afternoon and lower mi
tonight. model progs continue to advertise a sub-990mb low which is
4 to 5 standard deviations below normal for mid june, and if it
verifies will challenge low mslp records for the month. ahead of
this system a powerful 60+ kt llj will spread east across the
southern great lakes, rapidly advecting in deep moisture and strong
isentropic ascent into the elevated warm frontal boundary taking
shape through the day. the result will be widespread rain from late
this afternoon into the late evening hours, with a threat for flash
flooding and severe weather.

elevated showers and storms will move in late afternoon with heavier
activity culminating during the late evening as the strongest ascent
drives a line of convection through ahead of the cold front. model
soundings continue to showcase deep saturation and warm cloud layer
with pwat rising to the 1.50 to 1.75 range during the evening. this
will allow for efficient, heavy rainfall processes in any convection
and instantaneous rates within the strongest cores will likely
exceed 1"/hr. the bulk of the rainfall is expected in a relatively
brief window between 8pm and 2am and brings a heightened threat for
flash flooding especially across urban areas including metro
detroit. bulk of ensemble qpf output supports widespread 1 to 2 inch
amounts, and 30 to 40% probability for 2+ inches exists in the
latest href, refs, and nbm ensemble suites. placement of the axis of
highest qpf continues to carry uncertainty, but signal appears to be
most focused along the eventual track of convection near the triple
point. confidence is high enough to issue a flood watch for areas
along and south of m-59. will note there is a subset of hi-res
guidance that bifurcates the convection and actually places the
higher qpf north of the current watch. this remains a possible
outcome but carries less probability than the farther southern
solution.

the late evening period also brings concern for severe weather as we
sit near an upstream environment supportive of supercells and bowing
structures given high amounts of low-level shear and srh.
instability remains the limiting factor locally as we sit north of
the cape gradient until a brief window during the late evening where
the occlusion/surface warm sector attempts to nudge in from the
south as the low begins to pivot off to the north. afternoon/evening
convection is likely to ride ese along the cape gradient from
northern in into oh which should prevent the higher surface based
instability from advancing north, but trends show the dynamic system
still capable of advecting in a narrow axis of marginal instability
just as the llj begins to depart during the late evening. hi-res
reflectivity hints at potential for bowing and/or supercellular
structures to survive into the local area with perturbed mslp fields
indicating capability to produce severe wind gusts even if tenuous
amounts of cin otherwise suggest instability remains elevated. the
environment also support a qlcs tornado threat. the cold front
quickly passes through shortly after midnight which brings an end to
the severe threat. spc expanded the slight risk farther north to
include metro detroit to account for the trend in guidance.

low-level wind veers around to westerly thursday morning as the
system departs, with a secondary llj keeping windy conditions in
place through the morning as the system departs. gusts of 30 to 35
mph will be common early with wind gradually subsiding through the
afternoon. lighter and more scattered showers will continue behind
the cold front early thursday morning and lead into a slight
increase in coverage mid thursday morning as a weak secondary cold
front tracks through. seasonably cool conditions continue thursday
and friday with just a 15% chance of showers on friday as cool,
cyclonic flow aloft maintains weak diurnal instability.

the jet stream lifts northward and introduces some upper confluence
on saturday, though additional pva may still support a diurnal flare-
up of weak convection. the next notable wave in the flow arrives
from the midwest sunday evening with another relatively deep low for
june standards somewhere in the vicinity of the great lakes. local
impacts are uncertain as there are still many moving parts, but
something to monitor through the late week.

marine...

a brief break in convective activity is underway this morning as
ridging aloft quickly passes through. a strong low pressure system
follows in quick succession leading to evening and overnight
thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, and to a lesser extent,
waterspouts. prevailing southeasterly gradient flow accompanying the
low climbs above 25 knots across the southern waterways, after the
center approaches lake huron tonight. gusts to gales remain
possible, mainly for lake st. clair and western lake erie, as the
strongest llj winds of 40-50 knots pass through the lowest 3 kft.
shallow mixing profiles appear to exhibit only meager growth,
maintaining uncertainty with the potential/duration of gales. opted
out of gale headlines for lake st. clair and western erie given the
anticipated sporadic nature of the gale-force gusts. a small craft
advisory was issued for all nearshore zones with high confidence in
wind and wave criteria being met. post-frontal winds decline a bit
and organize out of the west-northwest on thursday, remaining so
through at least saturday. additional chances exist for periods of
showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the workweek and over
the weekend.

hydrology...

a strong low pressure system will arrive this evening, producing
widespread rainfall with numerous heavy thunderstorms through late
tonight. rainfall totals ranging between 1 and 2 inches are likely
for much of se mi, and isolated areas may receive over 3 inches.
most of this rainfall is expected to occur in 4 hours or less,
currently centered between 8pm and 2am, and rainfall rates will
likely exceed 1"/hr at times. this rainfall may pose a flash
flooding threat, mainly in urban areas, and rises on rivers and
streams can be expected. a flood watch is in effect for areas along
and south of m-59. additional scattered showers are possible
overnight and into thursday, but these will be much lighter.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch from 4 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight for
miz068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt thursday
for lhz421-422-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt thursday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt thursday
for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......rbp
aviation.....cb
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.