Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
184
fxus61 kcle 292314
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
714 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

.what has changed...
a chance for some showers has been introduced to the forecast
for wednesday evening/night with a warm frontal passage.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry and pleasant weather continues through wednesday.

2) some showers possible wednesday night, followed by greater
potential for widespread rain late thursday into friday.

3) cooler weather this weekend into early next week. this
period will be mainly dry with a couple of minor rain chances.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
fantastic early fall weather continues midweek as we get into
weak return flow behind departing high pressure. any fog
development tonight should be rather limited as a bit more of a
gradient will likely allow most locations to hang onto a light
breeze, though some valleys may still decouple and see patchy
fog. wednesday will feature an increase in clouds but should
remain dry until the evening hours. lows will generally dip into
the 50s tonight, with the light south-southwest breeze keeping
us a little milder than last night. the modest return flow will
support slightly warmer highs in the mid-upper 70s on wednesday.

key message 2...
a closed low (partially comprised of the remnants of east
pacific hurricane polo) will eject out of the southwest and into
the plains wednesday into thursday, before shearing out/
weakening as it lifts towards the ohio valley on friday. at the
same time, ridging over the eastern u.s. will flatten as a
shortwave moves through the northern great lakes and into new
england, pushing a cold front southeast across the local area
thursday night into friday.

a loosely defined warm front is expect to lift across the area
late wednesday into wednesday night. increasing mid-level
moisture and some isentropic lift along/ahead of the warm front
may support some rain showers late wednesday through early
thursday, particularly across northern portions of the area.
more models are indicating this potential than prior cycles, so
have added some 20-40% type rain chances to the forecast. rain
amounts late wednesday into early thursday will generally be
near or under 0.10", with locally up to 0.10-0.25" possible.

much of the day thursday will be dry in the open warm sector,
with rain lingering early towards northwest pa closer to the
warm front and approaching from the northwest late in the day
ahead of the cold front. the greatest window for rain will be
from northwest to southeast thursday night into friday. there is
some disagreement over how progressive the front will be, which
will influence how rainy we are through the day friday and
overall qpf amounts. the current forecast leans a soggier
direction for friday, especially through the early afternoon,
with some potential for northern portions of our area to dry out
through the afternoon. much of the area is expected to see
0.40-0.80" of rain thursday night through friday, with the
greatest amounts expected across northwest ohio. somewhat
unintuitively, a slower front could lead to less overall qpf
per ensemble members, as the overall system will be weakening
with time. regardless, ensembles suggest that a drier system
producing as little as 0.20-0.50" overall is possible, with a
more robust solution potentially dropping 1.00-1.50" in the
toledo area. overall, this rain will be beneficial and should
not pose a risk for impactful flooding falling on dry grounds.

highs will push towards 80 on thursday, our last day with such
values for a while. highs on friday are forecast to range from
the mid 60s to near 70, though that may be slightly misleading
as highs will be early in the day ahead of the front, with
temperatures holding steady or falling behind the front.

key message 3...
high pressure builds into the lower great lakes friday night
into saturday behind the departing front, bringing a period of
drier and somewhat cooler weather. another potent shortwave is
expected to dive through the great lakes and into new england
sunday and monday, carving out a deeper trough over the
northeast. this will likely bring a re-enforcing/stronger cold
front late sunday or monday that may be accompanied by a chance
of showers, followed by an even cooler airmass the first half
of next week. the overall airmass and high pressure strength
may support a frost potential monday night/early tuesday,
assuming favorable high placement for radiational cooling.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
vfr is expected through the taf period with high
clouds increasing in coverage throughout the day wednesday.
winds will be light and variable at most terminals through this
evening before becoming more southerly overnight. expect winds
to become more southwesterly and increase to 5 to 10 knots
during the day wednesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible with rain showers thursday night
through the weekend.

&&

.marine...
southwesterly winds are expected to dominate tonight through
thursday ahead of a cold front that will cross the lake thursday
night. these southwest winds will increase to the 10-15kt range
at times, including tonight/early wednesday and wednesday night
through thursday, building 1 to 3 footers in the open waters.
winds shift northerly on friday behind the front and remain
north-northeast through saturday. the current forecast has
15-20kt winds and 2-4/3-5 foot type waves friday through early
saturday, and as the prior discussion mentioned it`s not
uncommon for forecast winds to trend upwards behind good cold
fronts in the early fall. given that, there is elevated
potential for small craft advisories friday into early saturday.
a brief period of calmer conditions is likely late saturday
into sunday, with another push of stronger north-northwest winds
behind a cold front early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...15
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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033
fxus63 kiwx 292312
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
712 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

.key messages...

- increasing chances (40-80%) for showers wednesday along and
north of us 24 , best potential near lake mi in the mid-late
afternoon. highs will be in the upper 60s, low 70s for those
areas. south of us 24 expect highs in the mid-upper 70s with
increasing clouds.

- rain chances (40-90%) spread eastward through friday, with
isolated thunderstorm potential (non-severe). highs will be in
the 70s, low 80s on thursday and the 60s friday.

- dry conditions are expected this weekend into early next
week, with highs in the 60s, low 70s (warmest further south).
overnight lows will drop into the 40s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 451 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

main change to the forecast was to increase rain chances wednesday
afternoon-early evening for areas north of us 24, with the best
potential closer to lake mi. models have shifted southeastward with
the precipitation from previous runs, with a weak shortwave riding
the ridge stalled to our southeast. simultaneously, moisture return
ahead of polo remnants in the southwest and return flow around the
high coming off the gulf take aim right into our northwest late
tonight into wed, providing enough moisture/lift for precipitation.
instability is still limited at the surface, with weak mid-level
lapse rates, so kept any thunder mention out for this period. highs
north of us 24 will be in the 60s, low 70s. south of us 24, expect
mainly increasing clouds and highs in the mid-upper 70s/low 80s.

there could be a lull in precipitation after 8pm edt as the wave
exits (subsidence) and moisture transport slows before the llj kicks
in again. otherwise, we remain on the ridge/trough boundary and
continued moisture transport/warm air advection through friday
morning, when the frontal boundary and upper trough finally press
southeastward, leaving us with some breezy northwest winds and a
gradual drying trend into the afternoon. gradually, pops will expand
southeast thursday afternoon-with much of the area in 60-90% chances
into friday morning. highs on thursday look to be in the low-mid 70s
north of us 24, and the upper 70s, low 80s further south. behind the
front on friday, highs will be in the 60s.

a surface high builds in friday afternoon into sunday morning,
bringing a return to dry conditions. it will be cooler, with highs
in the 60s, low 70s. flow aloft is slightly cyclonic or more zonal
during this time, with another wave (and surface low) drifting
across northern lower and upper mi sunday morning, then drifting
into ontario/quebec by sunday night. most of the guidance keeps our
area dry for now, with the better forcing/precip chances further
north into mi. troughing lingers aloft until monday evening when
another upper ridge builds in with surface high pressure sprawling
across the gl through mid next week. high temperatures will remain
largely in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. it`s possible we see
widespread lows in the upper 30s, low 40s on monday night
(especially in mi counties).

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 712 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

top-down saturation expected late tonight through wednesday as
moisture increases ahead of a slowly approaching front. rain
showers and 4 kft ceilings expected at ksbn by the afternoon but
better moisture will take much longer to reach kfwa. some mvfr
possible at ksbn but chances appear low until later wednesday
night.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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179
fxus63 kdtx 300005
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
805 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance of light rain tomorrow.

- periods of rain is forecast thursday into friday. locally heavy
rain is possible.

- cooler and drier air is forecast saturday.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through tonight as exiting high pressure
pressure maintains a dry/stable environment. high clouds will
thicken through the night as southerly winds hold around 5-10
knots, which is expected to prevent any fog development. greater mid
level moisture will stream into the region late tonight and set the
stage for lowering ceilings throughout the day starting across mbs
and working down towards the metro terminals towards tomorrow
afternoon. increasing rain chances will accompany the inbound
moisture as well with morning showers across mbs that also reach
southern metro terminals toward the early afternoon. thunderstorm
chances look low tomorrow.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet by late tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 320 pm edt tue sep 29 2026

discussion...

mid level short wave ridging overhead will depart eastward across
the lower great lakes tonight. residual mid level subsidence will
support mostly clear skies through the evening. with the eastward
departure of sfc high pressure, an increase in the ssw gradient
tonight will limit radiational cooling, warranting milder nighttime
temps compared to the last few nights; forecast lows in mid 50s to
low 60s.

an axis of deep layer moisture now extending across the central
plains into northern ontario will experience renewed tropical
moisture transport due to the remnants of hurricane polo and a
continued influx off the western gulf. a progressive northern stream
trough axis and mid level height falls across northern ontario into
the northern great lakes tonight will drive this moist axis along
with a mid level tropospheric front across southern michigan on
wednesday. mid level short wave impulses within the mid level theta
e advection will support moderate to high chances for rain through
the day wed. lingering low level dry air will keep the rain light
and relatively high based. strengthening upper jet dynamics and an
increase in the low level inflow will tighten the frontal feature
overhead wed night into thursday and will likely drive some
semblance of a surface warm front toward se mi. this will support
continued rain chances and may allow temps near the ohio border to
push 80 degrees thursday.

although an upper wave over the southern plains is forecast to
rapidly weaken as it lifts northeast thursday into fri, model pv
surfaces indicate phasing between northern and southern stream jet
streaks to the north and northeast of the great lakes. this will
result in intensification of mid level deformation across srn lower
mi thurs afternoon into early fri. model solutions indicate a
corridor of very high moisture feeding into the elevated frontal
system. precipitable water values across se mi are forecast to range
from 1.6 to 2.0 inches thurs/fri, within the 99th percentile for
early october pwats if not pushing record territory. while weak
elevated instability may support some convective elements within the
rain, the kinematics will be supportive of a band of moderate to
possibly heavy rainfall. at this stage in the forecast there is
still uncertainty as to the precise location of the more persistent
forcing within the dtx forecast area. probabilistic guidance
indicates moderate to high chances for total rainfall between 0.5
and 1.5 inches thurs into fri, with low probabilities for rainfall
totals of 2 or more inches. a northern stream trough is forecast to
drive the deep layer moist axis south of the area during the day
friday, with much cooler and drier air advection following the
passage of the associated surface front. broad high pressure will
expand across the area saturday, leading to a cool and dry start to
the weekend.

marine...

south to southwest winds will slowly increase ahead of the next
cold front, which arrives and stalls over southern lower michigan on
thursday. with warm advection leading to more stable profiles
and showers moving through during this timeframe, wind gusts are
expected to top out only around 25 knots. with the front hung up
into thursday night, the post frontal cold advection now looks
slower; thus, the potential for northwest wind gusts reaching or
exceeding 25 knots looks to be late in the day on friday as 850
mb temps lower into the mid single digits by friday.

another large area of high pressure building in on friday night and
saturday will promote light winds for the first half of the weekend.
a stronger low tracking through the northern great lakes for the
second half of the weekend brings another opportunity for winds to
reach or exceed 25 knots over lake huron.

hydrology...

the transport of tropical moisture into southern michigan and an
approaching cold front will lead to widespread rain wednesday into
friday. the heaviest rain is forecast to occur between thursday
afternoon and friday morning. there is high probability for total
rainfall between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. a band of more persistent
rainfall is likely to become established across the area. the
precise location of this carries some degree of uncertainty at this
time. within the model probability space, there is a chance for
rainfall to exceed 2 inches in areas which experience the more
persistent rainfall, suggesting at least a chance of minor flooding.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...sc
marine.......sf
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.