Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1218 pm est tue dec 2 2025

.synopsis...
weak pressure of west virginia this morning will merge with stronger
low pressure moving up the east coast by midday. a ridge will expand
across the area tonight then shift southeast on wednesday. low
pressure near hudson bay will drag a cold front southeast across
the area early thursday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
10:55 am update:
just a bit of light synoptic snow lingering across far northeast
oh and northwest pa late this morning, with snow ended across
the rest of the area. with road conditions improving
significantly, even where some snow is still ongoing, have
dropped or expired a majority of our winter weather advisory.

advisories remain in effect until 1 pm for lorain county and
until 7 pm for cuyahoga, medina, lake, geauga, portage,
ashtabula, trumbull, erie pa and crawford pa. these areas are
also seeing improving conditions, though as a trough pushes off
of lake erie into the early-mid afternoon some lake effect snow
showers will accompany it. as mentioned below, the instability
and moisture depth are not great, so the snow will not be
particularly efficient and may mix with graupel with most areas
probably not seeing more than another inch. however, with 30dbz
radar returns showing up with the lake effect just offshore of
cleveland some of the lake effect may be intense enough to bring
quick visibility drops and accumulations on roadways as it comes
in. while impacts may be relatively mild and localized, would
like to give the lake effect a little more opportunity to play
out before dropping any more of the advisories...so we will be
monitoring conditions into the afternoon.

previous discussion:
winter weather event is ongoing across the area with light to
moderate snow continuing to fall area wide. an upper level trough
seen on water vapor imagery over the mid-mississippi valley will
lift northeast across ohio through sunrise as a jet streak
races by aloft. entrance region jet dynamics will support
increasing large scale ascent through about 9 am on the
northwest flank of an inverted surface trough extending up the
ohio/pennsylvania border. snowfall rates are expected to
increase along and south of a line from findlay to cleveland
with visibilities occasionally dropping below a mile in moderate
snow. snowfall rates of a half to three quarters of an inch are
possible across mainly north central and ne ohio/nw
pennsylvania. at this time the axis of heaviest precipitation
looks to be setting up from about columbus towards youngstown
and expect the highest rates of perhaps an inch per hour in this
swath. snowfall totals still look to be 2 to 4 inches across
most areas through sunrise, with slightly lower values in
northwest ohio and slightly higher values in our southern tier
of counties.

the dry-slot aloft will be near central ohio by 7am and into western
new york by 10 am. the arrival of the dry slot will result in snow
quickly diminishing or coming to an end, before lake effect snows
return across the snowbelt this afternoon. moisture lags at 700mb
across lake erie through about 2 pm before really starting to dry.
several high resolution models are showing snow showers forming over
lake erie in a region of convergence before the 700mb trough passes
overhead and snow showers move onshore. several models are showing
some contribution from lake huron with northerly flow focusing the
greater concentration of snow showers towards the cleveland
metro area. model soundings show low level lapse rates of 7-8c
off lake erie this afternoon and will likely see several good
bursts of snow continuing through the afternoon. limiting
factors are that the best lift is below the dendritic growth
zone and moisture depth will decrease through the afternoon so
this may be a mix of snow and graupel.

will leave winter weather advisories in tact although suspect
we may be able to cancel areas outside the snowbelt a couple
hours early, depending on conditions. surface ridging will build
in from the southwest and flow off lake erie will back with
snow showers becoming focused closer to the lakeshore. the low
inversion heights and decreasing moisture depth should prevent
much additional accumulation into this evening. high pressure
settles to the southeast on wednesday and southwesterly winds
will increase ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.
southwesterly winds may gust between 20-25 mph wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
an upper trough originating over northern canada will swing across
the great lakes region wednesday night through thursday morning.
surface low pressure will reside over hudson bay, but an arctic
cold front extend across the great lakes and sweep southeast
across the area early thursday. most areas will see scattered
snow showers but some heavier snow bands and squalls are
possible off eastern lake erie. a quick 1 to 2 inches is
possible in the ohio snowbelt with 2 to locally 4 inches in nw
pennsylvania. temperatures fall to near 20 degrees by late
thursday afternoon with wind chills of 5-15 degrees and winds
gusting between 20-30 mph, highest in the east. skies clear out
on thursday night and high pressure will support good
radiational cooling. lows will range from zero to 12 degrees
with the highest near lake erie. fortunately the trough and
accompanying arctic air pulls away quickly and temperatures
start to recover on friday.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
below normal temperatures continue through the long term forecast
with a broad trough in place across the eastern two thirds of the
country. surface high pressure will be over the ohio valley on
saturday with a trough over the eastern great lakes. will need to
monitor flow for orientation of any lake effect snow showers.
beyond saturday models are in poor agreement in track and timing
of any impactful systems. it is possible the storm track is to
our south and only have some low chances of snow showers at this
time. highs will tend to be in the upper 20s to low 30s with
lows in the teens.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
a mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area this
afternoon as a trough pivots across the area. ahead of the trough
axis, light snow showers continue to impact terminals with generally
mvfr to high end ifr conditions being observed. there is local
enhancement of snow showers pivoting off of lake erie which have the
potential to reduce conditions at kcle to ifr/lifr as it drifts east
over the next few hours. as the trough axis departs east this
afternoon, a general northwest flow will develop and allow for
additional lake enhanced snow showers to impact portions of the
snowbelt. this may result in further reductions to visibilities at
kcle and keri, with possible impacts as far inland as kcak and kyng.
all snow showers should end by wednesday morning, allowing for
conditions to gradually improve from west to east to vfr by
wednesday afternoon.

light northwest winds under 8 knots will persist into tonight before
veering and becoming southwesterly by wednesday morning. these
southwest winds will increase to 5-10 knots, approaching 12 knots
across western terminals at the end of this period. periodic gusts
up to 20 knots will also be possible at these terminals.

outlook...non-vfr likely wednesday evening into thursday in snow along
a cold front. non-vfr may return in scattered snow showers on
friday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected through tonight as weak high
pressure persists over the lower great lakes region with winds less
than 15 knots. small craft advisories will be needed across lake
erie wednesday through thursday as southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots
arrive ahead of a cold front on wednesday, shifting towards the west
to northwest, 20 to 25 knots, behind the front on thursday. can`t
rule out the potential for a low water advisory across the western
basin of lake erie ahead of the front with the elevated southwest
winds, though confidence remains low to medium at this time. winds
will favor a southwest direction towards the end of the week, 15 to
20 knots, shifting towards the west on saturday behind a cold front,
around 20 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
ohz010.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
ohz011>014-020>023-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...10
near term...10/sullivan
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...04
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1223 pm est tue dec 2 2025

.key messages...

- snow diminishes early this morning from west to east. some
lake effect snow showers through early afternoon, but
additional snow accumulations should be generally less than an
inch.

- patchy fog is expected across northwest indiana this morning,
the fog may be locally dense.

- a strong cold front pushes across the area on wednesday and
will likely be accompanied by some light snow accumulations
of around an inch.

- much colder air moves in for middle of the week with lows near
0 by thursday night and wind chills as cold as 10 below. some
moderation in temperatures for the weekend, but still below
normal.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 352 am est tue dec 2 2025

bands of snow continue this morning as a positively tilted
upper level trough tracks across the area. the forcing with this
system is highly elevated in nature with 700-500 mb fgen
forcing a primary driver. since 06z, mesobanding became more
distinct, particularly across portions of central indiana into
far northeast indiana/northwest ohio along and south of us 24.
another localized band formed from rochester in to coldwater mi,
but forcing with this mesoband was likely highly elevated with
weaker uvms in the snow production layer. will be interesting to
see reports trickle in this morning and would suspect at least
a few 5+ inch reports across far south central/southeast
portions of the forecast area where brief isentropic forcing
last evening was followed by repeated mesobands. across the
remainder of the area, snow production efficiency was less than
optimal, with generally a 1 to 3 inch snowfall for most areas.
snow should continue to taper sharply through daybreak. the
winter weather advisory for nw indiana will likely be cancelled
around 09z, while the remainder of the winter weather advisory
headlines will likely be cancelled/expired in the 11z-12z
window.

in the wake of the snow, some concern that patchy fog development
may be supported again across northwest indiana, but uncertainty
exists regarding how extensive this threat would be. cannot
rule out some localized patchy dense fog this morning generally
west of us 31. the other thing to watch this morning in wake of
system snow is the eastward migration of what has been a mid-
lake snow band over lake michigan. this band is now shifting
east along with the associated sfc trough. over next several
hours, lake effect parameters become much more marginal across
the local area as subsidence behind the departing mid level wave
supports continued lowering inversion heights and drying of
dgz. would expect any lake effect accums this morning across the
area to be less than an inch and likely not a factor in any
advisory headline extension this morning.

for tonight center of low level anticyclone will track of the area
with return southerly flow developing overnight. some hires guidance
is picking up on a fog potential in this setup with return flow over
fresh snowpack. if low clouds can scatter this evening,
radiative processes may help fog form initially also. however,
some potential with strong lingering low level inversion that
low clouds could linger or re-form. this appears to be a muddled
combination of radiative/advective processes over time tonight,
but have included mention of some patchy fog across most areas
this evening/overnight.

after brief warm advection shot late tonight into early wednesday, a
strong cold front will make its way across the area on wednesday as
broad upper pv anomaly shifts across hudson bay/ontario. strongest
upper forcing should migrate north/northeast of local area, but
glancing blow of forcing with this upper trough and modest low level
fgen forcing should support a band of snow filling in along low
level front. moisture and duration of deep moisture will be
a limiting factor with just a narrow axis of 3 g/kg 850 mb
mixing ratios in vicinity of the front. a band of light snow
with a potential of one inch accumulations is expected across sw
lower mi/nw in, with expectation that frontal forcing will
become a little more washed out with southeast extent as the
upper pv anomaly shifts across southeast canada. some lake
response possible late wednesday night into early thursday but
depth of lake induced instability appears limited once again.

an expansive low level anticyclone shifts across the region wed
night into thu night with coldest mins of the season expected
thursday night. temps should rapidly drop off early thursday evening
before likely becoming more steady late in the night. lows around
zero look like a good chance for many areas, and potentially sub-
zero for areas with fresh snowpack from the wednesday system.
subtle increase in southerly winds toward daybreak friday should
allow for some 5 to 10 degree below wind chills. some
moderation temperatures is expected for the weekend but
remaining below normal for early december. the large scale
synoptic pattern of west coast ridging and se canadian troughing
could provide favorable low level baroclinicity for potential
additional systems to track across the mid ms valley/great lakes
next weekend and have maintained broadbrush chance snow pops
next weekend into early next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1223 pm est tue dec 2 2025

patchy fog may continue to impact areas near ksbn over the next few
hours, but low ceilings are expected to persist with mvfr/ifr
conditions expected to prevail through much of the taf period. at
ksbn, ceilings initially near 3k feet agl are expected to lower to
near 1k feet agl after 21z, persisting through around 06z before
slowly lifting. mvfr ceilings around 1500 feet agl will prevail at
kfwa through tonight. winds at both terminals will remain light.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 1 am wednesday to 7 pm est thursday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...hammer

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
832 am est tue dec 2 2025

.key messages...

- temperatures will remain well below normal throughout the week.
the coldest conditions arrive thursday and friday with wind chill
values bottoming out at or below zero.

- arctic front will bring the potential for snow showers late
wednesday, with some minor accumulation possible.

&&

.update...

lingering synoptic snowfall has largely ended across se mi. there
continues to be some fog across the saginaw valley and northern thumb
region. weak flow and a low december sun angle with snow cover
supports the current forecast in maintaining fog across the northern
sections of the forecast area through the rest of the morning.
developing westerly flow this afternoon and a lowering subsidence
inversion suggests the upstream cloud cover will slowly filter back
into se mi during the afternoon and evening. there will be still be
peaks of sun within an overall variably cloud day.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 600 am est tue dec 2 2025

aviation...

light snow near detroit comes to an end over the next 1 to 2 hours
as ohio valley low pressure passes east and high pressure begins to
ease in from the west. the pressure gradient will remain weak this
morning, keeping abundant low level moisture in place. an area of
lifr fog/stratus is likely to linger across the saginaw valley while
mvfr visibility in mist lingers elsewhere. weak flow then begins to
organize out of the west to southwest this afternoon, allowing any
visibility restrictions to mix out. ceilings will be variable and
carry a high amount of uncertainty today, but overall mvfr stratus
is the dominant signal in model guidance. may see some periods of
vfr at times this morning and afternoon. predominant mvfr is favored
overnight.

for dtw...snow exits east early in the forecast with mvfr conditions
likely through mid morning. low confidence on timing of any periods
of vfr today.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through the forecast.

* high for precipitation type as snow this morning.

prev discussion...
issued at 300 am est tue dec 2 2025

discussion...

area of light accumulating snow impacting mainly areas from m-59
southward early this morning on pace to vacate from west to east
over the next 2-4 hours. trailing lower amplitude mid level trough
will track through during the morning period. satellite trends
confirm recent sounding data in maintaining a higher degree of low
level saturation anchored to this feature beneath a strengthening
inversion. shallow convective depth with neutral thermal advection
suggests limited potential for additional snow shower or flurry
activity going forward today. given no meaningful adjustment in the
resident thermal profile, expectation remains for highs to arrive
around 30 degrees again today. forecast will remain pessimistic on
cloud cover into tonight, noting greater likelihood for emerging
westerly flow to draw the residual lake michigan moist plume back
into the area. a few inconsequential flurries around as moisture
depth improves. magnitude of this cold airmass will again support
lows in the teens many locations despite a lower probability of
witnessing open sky.

polar low anchored over hudson bay will remain influential in local
conditions through the latter half of the week. stronger vorticity
lobe pivoting through the cyclonic periphery will dig southeast and
across the great lakes wednesday night. brisk conditions develop
wednesday as the southwest gradient strengthens ahead of the inbound
attendant arctic front. gust potential muted by low inversion
heights as modest warming commences atop the shallow mixed layer.
probability of snow showers will increase from northwest to
southeast from late afternoon into the evening hours, focused
primarily along the advancing convergence axis. accumulation
potential from a dusting to half inch. greater signal for snow
squall potential remains to the north and across lake huron based on
projection of low level cape and fgen collocated with the stronger
frontal convergence. with that, a few bursts of higher intensity
snow showers will remain possible through this time.

high magnitude cold defined by temperature readings near 20 degrees
below average will mark the thursday and friday periods as the
arctic airmass takes firm residence. this will translate into single
digit wind chill during the daylight hours, with a minimum in wind
chill sub-zero for many locations both thursday and friday mornings.
little change in the overall pattern ensures well below average cold
sticks around this weekend and likely well into the following week.
a series of shortwaves cascading over the prevalent central pacific
ridge will dive into the mean trough. pattern still subject to
higher degrees of uncertainty in time and space for defining
additional snowfall chances as these waves migrate downstream from
friday night onward. assessment of recent ensemble guidance points
to lower end but equal chances for meaningful forcing to enter the
area anytime within the friday night through monday window. synoptic
scale moisture quality will remain on the lean side given the
pacific origin within a predominant mid level west-northwest flow.
forecast will continue to simply highlight a broader, low chance
with further refinement likely as greater consensus on track and
magnitude materialize with time.

marine...

high pressure will continue to push off towards the new england
region with lighter winds prevailing over southern portions of the
great lakes. over the northern great lakes, persistent southwest
flow will continue as a broad low pressure system continues to
reside over the hudson bay region. next significant system arrives
wednesday as a strong arctic cold front drops out of northern
ontario resulting in both strong preceding southwest winds and
trailing northwesterly winds as the coldest air of the season thus
far moves over the great lakes. limited potential for a brief period
of gales within the southwest flow wednesday precludes a gale watch
at this time. increasing wave action will bring an extended period
of small craft conditions across saginaw bay and the nearshore
waters of lake huron

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 4 pm est thursday
for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....tf
discussion...mr
marine.......ss


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.