Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
045
fxus61 kcle 181815
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
215 pm edt fri sep 18 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes with this update. rainfall amounts late
saturday into sunday remain similar to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) rain showers will slowly increase saturday, with periods of
heavy rain possible saturday night into sunday morning. the
heaviest rain is expected over the lakeshore counties and also
in nw ohio where localized flooding is possible.

2) cool and unsettled weather is expected next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
canadian high pressure over the northern and central great lakes
this afternoon through early tonight will briefly keep the
active frontal boundary to our south near the ohio river.
however, the current showers and thunderstorms over illinois and
wisconsin are a sign of what`s to come for the weekend. this
activity is tied to the first in a series of mid/upper shortwave
troughs that will progress across the southern great lakes
tonight through sunday. increasing isentropic ascent and right
entrance forcing beneath a subtle upper jet streak will generate
showers near lake erie and nw ohio by saturday morning, but
abundant low-level dry air will likely cause much of this
initial activity to fall apart. kept chance to slight chance
pops in the morning and afternoon for low impact, scattered
showers.

better potential for more of a widespread, heavier rain will
start to arrive saturday evening and especially saturday night
through sunday morning as the next and much stronger mid/upper
shortwave crosses the southern great lakes region. an 80+ knot
upper jet streak rounding the base of the shortwave trough and
upper diffluence will aid in a slightly deepening surface low
tracking from ne iowa saturday afternoon through southern
ontario saturday night/early sunday. the frontal boundary will
lift back north into the region ahead of this low saturday
afternoon and saturday night, likely becoming quasi-stationary
near the south shore of lake erie. this will bring the rich
low-level moisture characterized by 70+ f dew points back into
the area. the combination of strong warm/moist advection and
isentropic ascent north of the lifting frontal boundary, upper
diffluence and right entrance forcing south of the
aforementioned jet streak tracking over lower michigan, and the
moisture rich airmass will lead to a band of steady rain. there
will be a "sweet spot" where the strongest jet dynamics align to
tighten mid-level frontogenesis, and that is where an embedded
narrower strip of heavier convection is expected to line up.
most of the region will see 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain late
saturday through midday sunday, but where the embedded band of
heavier convection sets up could see 1-2 inches (locally
higher). pwats of 1.75 to 2 inches will be in the 90th to 99.5th
percentile of daily climatology, and this combined with deep
warm cloud layers supports efficient rainfall rates. the frontal
boundary will be aligned fairly parallel to the mid/upper flow,
so will need to watch for training convection where this narrow
band sets up. this could lead to rises on area rivers, creeks,
and streams as well as flooding of typical flood prone area. the
wpc slight risk for excessive rainfall still looks good for
both saturday and sunday (level 2 of 4) in nw ohio since
consensus among rrfs and href cams are showing greatest
consistency over that area, but this heavy rain swath could also
extend across the lakeshore counties of ne ohio and erie
county, pa. held off on a flood watch because there is still
plenty of time to see future cams pinpoint the exact location of
the convective band, but a watch could be considered in the
next couple of forecast cycles.

the area will dry out from north to south sunday afternoon and
sunday night as a strong cold front pushes south of the region
behind the exiting surface low and canadian high pressure tries
to build in from the northern great lakes.

key message 2...
the first true stretch of fall weather will arrive monday and
persist through next week as a broad mid/upper trough across
the great lakes becomes blocked to the south of an anomalous
mid/upper ridge building over most of canada. this will result
in a closed (cut off) low eventually developing and pinwheeling
between the ohio valley and mid atlantic regions mid to late
week to the south of a strong canadian high over eastern canada.
this pattern will result in cool ne low-level flow and breezy
conditions, along with periods of rain showers. details for each
day are very uncertain at this time, but the main message is
cool with periods of showers all week. highs will generally be
in the low/upper 60s with lows in the 50s.


&&

.aviation /18z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions expected this afternoon and evening with mostly
sunny skies due to high pressure over the great lakes region.
winds will be out of the north around 8-10 knots this afternoon.

low pressure approaches from the southwest, with a series of mid-
level impulses impacting the region starting saturday. showers and
thunderstorms are most likely to impact northwest ohio saturday
morning, with showers and storms potentially getting into north-
central and northeast ohio later saturday afternoon/evening. non-vfr
visibilities are likely within heavier showers/thunderstorms.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
as high pressure builds south across lake erie today, a brief period
of elevated northeasterly winds of 10-15 knots will impact portions
of the western and central basins. given the onshore flow, wave of 1-
3 feet along the lakeshore is expected with up to 4 feet possible at
times. as a result, there is a moderate risk for rip currents
through late morning. as the high pressure becomes dominant this
afternoon, northeast flow will weaken to 5-10 knots and allow for
waves to diminish to 1-2 feet. these conditions will persist into
saturday morning before winds shift and become easterly at 10-15
knots ahead of an approaching low pressure system. as this system
approaches the southern lakeshore sunday morning, increased winds
from the northeast to 15-20 knots will gradually build waves to 3-5
feet. given a deepening gradient, these winds are expected to
increase into monday, possibly approaching gales by monday
afternoon. these strong winds will be highly dependent on the exact
placement of the low pressure system, but either way at minimum a
small craft advisory and beach hazards statement will be needed for
much of lake erie from sunday through at least tuesday. by midweek,
model guidance begins to disagree quite a bit resulting in less
confidence.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...saunders
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
871
fxus63 kiwx 181809
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
209 pm edt fri sep 18 2026

.key messages...

- briefly dry and less humid today into this evening.

- several rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms expected
this weekend, possibly lingering into monday. localized
flooding will be possible where the heaviest rain sets up.

- cooler and trending drier tuesday through thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 303 am edt fri sep 18 2026

a low level anticyclone tracking east through ontario and the
northern great lakes will funnel drier, less humid air into the area
today into this evening. active pattern with several rounds of rain
and embedded storms then return later tonight through the weekend
as another baroclinic zone and unseasonably moist 2 inch pwat axis
set up over the area. a parade of convectively enhanced shortwaves
and broad waa/isentropic upglide into the frontal zone will no doubt
aid in the expansion of training elevated convective episodes and
torrential rainfall.

a model consensus favors saturday morning into early saturday
afternoon for the first round of elevated convection on the nose of
a ~30 knot low level jet. higher qpf/pops are favored west of i-69
and north of us 24 with this first round as activity may tend to
outrun more focused low level convergence with southeastward
progression.

a brief lull remains possible in between mid level impulses saturday
afternoon-early evening before additional bouts of more organized
rain/thunder settle in saturday night into sunday. this occurs as a
weak sfc frontal wave aids in enhancing the fgen response. heavier,
training convective elements remain a concern for localized flooding
given the frontal forcing and moisture rich air mass. a flood watch
may be needed for portions of the area at some point, but held off
for now per collaboration and lingering model spread on timing and
location. prospects for any isolated severe storms are on the low
side south of us 30 otherwise later saturday afternoon-evening as
the sfc boundary and potential for any surface based convection
struggles to reach this far north.

cooler weather remains in store for next week as the primary western
conus upper trough releases east, potentially closing off over the
great lakes by midweek. continued moist isentropic upglide over
the southward sinking frontal zone keep chances for showers through
at least monday, with a trend toward drier weather thereafter as the
leading moisture channel shifts off to the southeast.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 200 pm edt fri sep 18 2026

a ridge of high pressure across the great lakes will provide
easterly flow through this period. this flow regime has allowed
some drier low level air to infiltrate into northern indiana
with some scattering of vfr cloud deck. scattered showers have
storms have formed across portions of north central il along an
instability gradient that has shifted westward this morning. a
small scale convectively enhanced short wave appears to be
interacting with this instability gradient for scattered
convection across northern illinois. while some advective
forcing appears to be shift eastward with this boundary through
late afternoon, confidence is on the low side whether these
showers can survive into northwest indiana. have opted to keep
tafs dry at this point but may need to monitor ksbn for
potential brief shower potential. during the overnight hours, a
zone of stronger isentropic ascent currently residing across
ia/mn should shift to the western great lakes by daybreak. this
increase forcing should allow plume of higher mucapes to lift
northeast into northern indiana. did include shra at terminals
toward end of this period and may eventually need to include ts
mention once forecast confidence increases. primarily vfr
conditions are expected this period, but should trend to mvfr
toward end of this period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
790
fxus63 kdtx 181610
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1210 pm edt fri sep 18 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather today with increasing clouds late in the day.

- several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely
saturday, saturday night, and sunday.

- a cool and cloudy pattern is expected through early next week.

&&

.aviation...

dry mid-levels and subsidence are in place over southeast michigan.
northeast winds off lake huron are helping to moisten the low levels
just enough to produce scattered low clouds (2500-5000 feet) early
this afternoon. low clouds are expected to mix out by early evening,
with increasing mid to high clouds this evening and tonight. higher
based light showers/sprinkles are possible at mbs/fnt overnight, but
dry low level easterly winds will attempt to dissipate activity. a
much better surge of moisture and showers is expected on saturday,
spreading from southwest to northeast. as showers become numerous to
widespread saturday afternoon, cigs/visibilities will settle into
mvfr. although, with easterly flow trending southeast off lake erie,
it`s possible an mvfr deck of clouds tracks through the southern
tafs during the morning hours.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft saturday morning, high for
saturday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 421 am edt fri sep 18 2026

discussion...

a stalled frontal boundary remains active with convection across the
ohio valley this morning but se mi will see increasing drying
influence from high pressure passing through northern ontario today.
northeast flow allows remaining stratus to push south of the
stateline with a good amount of sunshine for the area through
midday. subtle negative thickness advection within the southern
extent of thermal troughing allows high temps to arrive right around
seasonal average in the lower 70s and upper 60s (downwind of lake
huron).

low pressure emerges out of the high plains today in response to a
shortwave and upper jet entrance region running the ridge axis in
place, bolstered by a feed of monsoonal moisture from the four
corners region. will see the first signs of this system locally
later this afternoon as high cloud begins to spill in from the west.
dry weather is most likely to prevail overnight as persistent
easterly flow maintains a dry pocket within the lowest 8 kft or so.
upstream, organized moisture transport into the developing warm
frontal slope will produce a corridor of steady and at times heavy
rainfall. the llj driving this rain is shown to veer overnight
before beginning to target parts of lower mi saturday morning. there
are still some discrepancies noted in the strength and northeastward
extent of this feature among 00z guidance, which appears to govern
how far north and east the swath of rain reaches into the local area
on saturday.

model cross sections show a sharp 850-700mb frontal structure and
attendant fgen within deep layer saturation, suggestive of banded
precip with inherent uncertainty as to where the frontal slope will
activate and for how long at any given location. this is evidenced
by a 1+" spread between the 25th and 75th percentile qpf in lref
grand ensemble membership. qpf output in coarser global model
solutions is likely overdone spatially and prefer the look of hi-res
solutions that can better account for the initial dry easterly flow
and some of the mesoscale processes involved. overall flavor of
these solutions shows the heaviest rain sinking southeast across
lake michigan and chicagoland into western lower mi and northern in
saturday morning before the llj weakens and rates/coverage begin to
taper off midday. what`s left for se mi is a cool, cloudy, and
showery pattern with amounts most probable to hold below a half inch
through 00z sun. rates could become moderate at times as pwat rises
above 1.50", but the threat for widespread heavier rain is low. weak
lapse rates and marginal elevated instability offer low potential
for an embedded thunderstorm or two in the south. conversely,
portions of the area north of i-69 may see little to no rain given
the farther proximity from the feed of moisture and lift.

additional showers are likely, especially south of m-59, saturday
night into sunday. the stalled frontal slope remains overhead while
additional moisture continues to feed along it. as the nocturnal llj
becomes active again over the northern ohio valley, this will be a
window for training showers that have potential to produce locally
over 1 inch of rain. placement of the axis of heaviest rain still
carries high uncertainty and may yet be displaced south of the state
line. additional clarity should come into focus today and tonight as
additional hi-res runs begin to include this period.

high pressure builds back into northern ontario on sunday, offering
another period of dry northeast flow that should shunt any lingering
showers southward by late in the day. a tightening gradient brings
breezy conditions with temperatures capped in the mid 60s. cool and
mostly cloudy conditions carry into the early week as the stalled
front remains active over the ohio valley. showers will be possible
at times, especially in the south. an upper low looks to develop
overhead midweek which brings higher likelihood for showers
wednesday and thursday.

marine...

a secondary cold front finishes clearing the region this morning
resulting in a modest uptick in northeasterly winds (toward 20-
25kts) over the southern half of lake huron. small craft advisories
are in effect along the thumb due to the moderate onshore flow. this
front stalls over northern ohio before attempting to lift back north
saturday as plains low pressure arrives. front looks to reach the
southern great lakes before the system tracks over lower mi
resulting in predominant east-southeast turning northeasterly winds
this weekend. widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are
possible, mainly focused over the southern half of the region. a
moderate gradient, supporting ne/e gusts 20-30kts, lingers behind
the low sunday into the new work week as the area holds between the
stalled boundary over the ohio valley and high pressure over
northern ontario.

hydrology...

a low pressure system approaching from the plains with increasing
deep moisture will bring showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms
to the area this weekend. forecast rainfall totals have decreased
with the latest guidance, but relatively high confidence still
exists for total rainfall ranging between a half inch and 1.5
inches. the highest amounts are likely to occur mainly south of a
line from lansing to detroit. a period of moderate rainfall rates
and potential for training/repeated showers is most favored to occur
from saturday night into sunday morning, especially for areas south
of m-59. the longer duration rainfall event will mitigate widespread
flooding concerns, but ponding will be possible where any repeated
rounds of showers lead to localized totals in excess of 1 inch.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz442-443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...tf
marine.......kdk
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.