Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
154
fxus61 kcle 051900
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
200 pm est thu mar 5 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains largely on track through the 7 day period.

&&

.key messages...
1) more fog possible again tonight with rain chances becoming
more isolated to scattered, followed by a drier period friday
and temperatures increasing as a warm front moves through.

2) thunderstorm chances on the increase saturday in the warm
sector with increasing low level winds, dewpoints, and an
approaching cold front.

3) drier sunday and monday, continued above average
temperatures, and another frontal system midweek.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
as rain lifts northeastward with a warm front that is ever so
slowly creeping in the same direction, precipitation will become
more isolated to scattered this evening and into the overnight
time frame. so there is a drying trend overall to the forecast
in the next 24 hours, but without the ability to scour out the
saturated near-surface layer of the atmosphere and a stubborn
inversion in place, fog and low stratus will likely be an issue
once again heading into tonight and could need another dense fog
advisory for a third night in a row. a warm front finally makes
better headway through the cwa friday, and temperatures will
finally see the increases into the 60s with some low 70s
possible in the southern tier.

key message 2...
the first real threat for severe weather this year arrives on
saturday as the spc has a portion of the eastern cwa outlooked
for a slight risk. low level winds will be on the increase in
the warm sector ahead of an evening cold front. meanwhile,
dewpoints will be decidedly spring-like with upper 50s and
lower 60s expected. this will help with developing instability
into the afternoon hours as the aforementioned low level jet
strengthens to the 40-50kt range, making winds the primary
threat in this case. with 0-6km shear around 50kts, expecting
line segments to form ahead of the cold front in the potential
severe weather day.

key message 3...
cold front late saturday clears the airmass, and knocks
temperatures down 15 degrees or so for sunday, climbing again
monday. significant warm-up through tuesday/wednesday ahead of
another potent cold front expected midweek. out in the forecast
quite a ways, but this synoptic setup suggest another convective
potential.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
as a near stationary boundary lingers across northern ohio
through much of this period, conditions are expected to remain
ifr/lifr at all terminals. through this evening, light rain
showers across the area will continue with visibilities being
reduced to generally 2-4sm with locally worse conditions in the
heaviest showers. ceilings are widespread between 300-800 ft and
will persist. tonight, showers should diminish from west to
east, but with that boundary lingering, plenty of moisture and
warmer temperatures will once again result in widespread fog
developing. by 06z, all terminals should be socked in with fog
with persistent visibilities below 1sm. the exception may be
terminals immediately along the lakeshore that may remain north
of the boundary, but either way ifr/lifr ceilings will still
reduce conditions. on friday, that aforementioned boundary will
begin to lift north as a warm front, gradually improving
conditions. most terminals will not see non-ifr conditions until
after this period, unless the boundary speeds up.

winds will generally be light and variable through this period,
becoming southwest at 5-10 knots friday afternoon.

outlook...occasional periods of rain through saturday will
bring additional non-vfr conditions.

&&

.marine...
northeast winds of 10-15 knots across lake erie today will
persist through much of friday before a warm front lifts north
late friday into saturday. behind the warm front, winds will
veer to become southwesterly, increasing to 15-20 knots through
saturday evening. as a surface ridge builds over the area
late saturday, winds will weaken to 5-10 knots before ramping
back up sunday night to 15-20 knots. the active pattern will
continue to bring elevated wind speeds periodically across lake
erie this week. although the lake remains mostly ice covered,
where there are breaks in ice, waves will periodically increase
to 2-4 feet. these breaks are primarily observed in the western
basin. as temperatures remain above average the next couple of
days, the ice thickness and coverage will continue to slowly
decrease.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
978
fxus63 kiwx 051831
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
131 pm est thu mar 5 2026

.key messages...

- lingering showers and drizzle taper off by early this evening.

- areas of fog, locally dense, expected again tonight into friday
morning.

- there is a 20-40% chance for scattered showers and storms on
friday. small hail and brief downpours possible.

- becoming breezy and unseasonably mild friday afternoon into friday
night. near record highs up near 70 degrees possible.

- periods of showers and storms later friday night into
saturday. a few storms may be capable of producing marginally
severe hail along with localized wind gusts in excess of 40
mph.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm est thu mar 5 2026

more widespread rainfall over northeast portions of the forecast
area will shift out of the area by 21-22z. still could see
widely scattered showers through the remainder of the afternoon
elsewhere as the primary upper level vort max and steeper mid level
lapse rates swing through over a moist air mass. deep layer drying
and subsidence in wake of the wave will provide dry conditions
tonight. fog, potentially dense, will once again be a concern
tonight into friday morning however given light flow and an
abundance of moisture still trapped beneath a strong inversion.

a surface warm front, stuck over the ohio river valley all week,
will finally get a push northeast through the area late friday
morning into friday afternoon, with most of the forecast area in the
warm sector mid afternoon friday through much of friday night. this
will occur in response to an upper trough and developing sfc
reflection lifting northeast from the rockies/high plains friday to
the upper midwest and northern great lakes friday night into
saturday. there could be showers and even a few storms along
the warm front as it lifts through on friday given the moisture
advection and potential for a small scale, convectively augmented,
impulse to lift over it in deepening southwest flow. this activity
will likely be elevated with small hail and brief downpours
possible. a lull is then expected in its wake with breezy, mainly
dry and an unseasonably warm/moist air mass settling friday pm-night
(highs nearing the daily record, sfc dewpoints into the upper 50s to
near 60f).

the system pre-frontal trough and cold front remain on target to
move slowly through later friday night into saturday with a period
of showers and storms expected. there remains a low-end
(marginal svr risk) threat for a few strong to severe storms
(wind) given the strong background flow/shear and near 60f dewpoints
along and in advance of these features. also of low confidence is
whether there could be enough heating by saturday afternoon for
renewed convection over eastern portions of the area. drier air then
settles in post-frontal saturday night through monday with
temperatures remaining mild for early march.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1239 pm est thu mar 5 2026

lifr conditions lingering at both locations to start the period
with only improvement so far being vsbys into mvfr range. main
area of rain has moved away with some potential for a few light
showers or a bit of drizzle for a few hours. vsbys will drop
once again, especially tonight as the warm front remains to our
south. have played things somewhat conservative for now, but
dense fog could reappear, especially late evening/overnight. the
warm front does work rapidly north with kfwa entering the warm
sector close to the end of the period resulting in a shift to
ifr conditions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 7 am est friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
741
fxus63 kdtx 051930
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
230 pm est thu mar 5 2026

.key messages...

- heavy rain showers moving through the detroit metro area end by
early evening.

- low clouds and fog are expected tonight, with potential areas of
dense fog significantly reducing visibility.

- milder temperatures move into the area friday-saturday with
daytime highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees on saturday.

- a chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late friday
night through saturday afternoon. damaging winds and hail are the
primary concerns.

- even without storms, it will become windy saturday afternoon.
southwest winds are expected to gust between 40-45 mph.

- after a brief cool-down, well-above-normal temperatures in the 60s
are expected to return early next week.

&&

.discussion...

low pressure is tracking through northern ohio this afternoon,
passing east of the eastern great lakes this evening. heavy rain
showers with compact upper level wave/deformation will come to an
end before 00z with mid-level drying and upper-level ridging
building over the central great lakes tonight. however, a lack of
low level cold advection/drying and weak flow near the surface in
the wake of the low will likely produce low clouds and fog, as
surface dew pts remain elevated (above 32 degrees) over the frozen
ground. a dense fog advisory may be needed tonight for parts of the
cwa, as a light southeast component off lake erie/lake st.
clair/southern lake huron helps the cause. however, low clouds depths
may be sufficient to produce even some drizzle, so not sure fog will
end up being widespread 1/4sm or less, as winds attempt to increase
slowly around sunrise.

a highly amplified upper level pattern continues, with summer-like
upper level ridge off the east and an upper level trough extending
along and west of the rockies. a strong upper level wave will eject
out of the four corners region on friday. an extreme low level jet
traversing through lower michigan friday night - saturday as an
aggressive height fall center and associated surface low tracks
through eastern lake superior or close to the straights. 12z nam
suggests surface dew pts rising to 60 degrees, supportive of 1000-
850 mb capes in the 500-1000 j/kg range. favorable late afternoon
timing of the cold front draws concerns for damaging winds with any
stronger convection, due to the strong left over jet- at least 50
knots at 850 mb. mid-level lapses rates are decent, and with
favorable wet bulb zero heights around 10000 feet, hail is also
possible. no issues with the marginal risk issued by spc for day 3.
even without any thunderstorm development, gradient winds/boundary
layer mixing will likely approach wind advisory criteria/40-45 mph
per local probabilistic guidance, as there looks to be 45+ knot of
flow at 925 mb level. 925 mb temps at or slightly above 14 c
supports highs around 70 degrees, but will be dependent on
the coverage and duration of the showers.

short lived cold shot shot (850 mb temps slightly negative) saturday
night with rebounding heights and warming to finish the weekend into
early next week. temperatures once again well into the 60s for
monday and tuesday, with even 70 degrees possible on tuesday (per
about half euro ensemble members). this is dependent on elevated
warm front lifting through, which could lead to showers and cooler
temps.

&&

.marine...

weak area of low pressure continues to slide along the length of
lake erie this evening bringing showers to the southern half of the
region. departure of the low overnight brings a period of drier
weather as well as lighter winds shifting to the southeast. a
stronger low then lifts out of the plains and into the northern
great lakes saturday. in advance, the attendant warm front lifts
through the central great lakes late friday supporting another round
of showers and a shot at a few thunderstorms with southwesterly
winds developing post-front friday night. while strengthening warm
advection results in 50-55kt flow only a couple thousand feet off
the surface, magnitude of the airmass maintains strong thermal
stability over the lakes keeping winds at or below 30kts. system`s
cold front crosses the region second half of the day saturday
generating wider spread showers and scattered thunderstorms,
particularly towards the southern great lakes. an isolated strong to
severe storm is possible over these southern waters. there remains a
couple hour window along/immediately following the front where
west/west-northwest gusts could near entry-level gales. that said,
while the gradient is supportive of stronger gusts, trailing airmass
is not particularly cold relative to the current lake temps
resulting in only slightly unstable to neutral thermal profiles
acting as an inhibiting factor in peak wind speed potential.
confidence at this time is not high enough to warrant a gale watch.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1228 pm est thu mar 5 2026

aviation...

a range of flight conditions cover southern lower mi this afternoon
driven by proximity to the front stalled across in/oh. lifr/ifr in
fog and stratus is widespread up to ptk transitioning to borderline
ifr/mvfr farther north from fnt to mbs. this general setup holds
this afternoon as rain showers spread across the area, especially
south of fnt, as a ripple of low pressure runs along the frontal
zone. that system exits eastward this evening, however the in/oh
front remains stalled there through tonight in a favorable position
to maintain or redevelop ifr/lifr across the region. cool easterly
wind off the eastern great lakes into lower mi helps maintain
saturated boundary layer conditions already supported by the stalled
frontal zone, also enhanced by gradual nocturnal cooling into friday
morning. the next low pressure system draws the front northward into
lower mi while maintaining lifr in typical warm frontal fashion
through friday morning.

for dtw... lifr/ifr conditions persist this afternoon in a mix of
fog and stratus, enhanced by cool easterly wind and rain showers
increasing across the region. the rain exits eastward this evening
while lifr/ifr ceiling and fog continue tonight through sunrise
friday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon through friday
morning.

* moderate for ceiling and visibility below 200 ft and/or 1/2sm
tonight into friday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......kdk
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.