Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
386
fxus61 kcle 250551
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
151 am edt thu jun 25 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tonight through friday night with a chance for a few strong storms
east of i-71 thursday 1 - 8 pm.

2) heat and humidity returns next week with heat indices possibly
exceeding 100 degrees, especially in northwest ohio.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure moves into the great lakes region
tonight with residual convection moving in from the northwest late
tonight through thursday morning. this will mainly be rain showers
with a few embedded storms.

additional convection will develop thursday afternoon, mainly east
of i-71. sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will be present
for marginally organized convection during the afternoon with a few
strong to severe storms. severity will likely depend on prevalence
of morning convection.

another low moves up from the southwest, with an additional round of
showers and thunderstorms friday through saturday morning. model
guidance has trended later with precipitation onset on friday, and
there is a chance that most of friday is dry. precipitation is most
likely for southern counties.

key message 2...
an upper-level ridge builds into the eastern conus, with heat
and humidity building into the local region next week. the
latest nbm has tuesday and wednesday as the hottest days of the
week with >50% probability of 90 degrees and heat indices > 100
degrees. there are very low probabilities of thunderstorms each
day (around 10- 30%), greater towards the east and best chance
is on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
shower activity will approach from the west early this morning
and continue to spread east during the overnight hours. overall,
rain is mostly vfr in indiana and nw oh with just some minor
pockets of mvfr in the most potent showers. with low confidence
in mvfr, have just vfr with the first wave of rain into thursday
daytime hours. the main concern for today will be the
development of thunderstorm clusters this afternoon over ne oh
and nw pa. the biggest factor in new activity this afternoon
will be how worked over will the region be after this morning`s
rain and clouds and can any new activity form over the airspace
before the front moves through. areas out west, including ktol
and kfdy, appear to be in the clear with poor timing for new
development. whereas, areas further east, including kcak and
kyng, are trending more concerning for getting afternoon
thunderstorms. therefore, will have prob30s for thunderstorms at
kmfd and kcle and will up the concern for kcak, kyng, and even
keri to tempo for thunderstorms with the potential for ifr this
afternoon. behind the front, rain will clear out and conditions
will return to vfr with light westerly winds.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms friday
afternoon through friday night with some lingering activity
potentially continuing into saturday.

&&

.marine...
with the exception of some stronger wind gusts associated with
thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening, particularly across
the eastern basin of lake erie, generally quiet marine conditions
are expected through the weekend. winds will shift towards the south
to southwest on thursday, 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to
northeast behind a cold front on friday into saturday, 10 to 15
knots. onshore, northeast flow will then continue through sunday,
around 10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...sefcovic
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
480
fxus63 kiwx 250612
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
212 am edt thu jun 25 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers ending early this morning.

- 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon.

- rain, heavy at times, arrives from southwest to northeast on
friday.

- becoming hot and humid next week with highs in the 90s and
heat indicies near 100 as early as monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 210 am edt thu jun 25 2026

a narrow warm sector has continued to permit showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist early this morning. this activity will taper
off over the next couple of hours and in its wake, stratus and
patchy fog will take shape. upstream observations have pockets of
1/4 mile visibility, but with surface wind forecast to be near 5
knots, low clouds should be the primary sky cover early this
morning.

surface low over southern wisconsin slides ese with its trailing
cold front becoming draped over the area today, serving as the focus
for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. aloft, we`re
beneath the right exit region of a 60-knot 500-mb jet which is not
the ideal placement for upper-level support. forecast soundings are
rather dry as well, helping to limit the overall coverage of storms.
steep low-level lapse rates (nearly 9c/km) do present an isolated
downburst risk from any feisty storms in what is otherwise a weakly
sheared environment.

turning to friday, the aformentioned front creeps north as low
pressure emerges from the central plains and sends an area of rain
through central indiana after daybreak. the greatest rainfall totals
are shaping up to be along the south of us 30, a slight northward
shift than previously thought as steering high pressure off the
southeast us appears somewhat stronger, and incoming canadian high
pressure less of a factor. rain totals could exceed 1" before
tapering off from west to east after sunset.

looking primarily dry for the weekend as high pressure briefly takes
hold over the eastern great lakes. cannot completely rule out a
period of showers and thunderstorms sunday morning, but forcing is
murky with a building ridge.

the primary story in the long-term is the increasing heat and
humidity as a strong ridge becomes centered over the southern
mississippi valley. spurious pops will need to be addressed at times
from the in-house blend, but there will be increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms (ridge-running mcs` perhaps) should the
ridge break down late-week. until then, highs in the 90s with a heat
index near 100.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 1238 am edt thu jun 25 2026

showers and isolated thunderstorms are departing ksbn but
continue at kfwa. lightning is on the decline for a small
segment of storms ssw of kasw, but is otherwise destined for
kfwa. behind this activity, stratus and perhaps br is forecast
to develop as northwest flow and subsidence take shape.
confidence is higher at ksbn for ifr stratus, while confidence
is lower at kfwa due to a later departure time of -shra this
morning.

decreasing clouds after daybreak and westerly wind increasing.
isolated thunderstorms toward kfwa in the afternoon, but
coverage appears to be sparse and the onset location uncertain.
will continue to monitor trends in high resolution guidance and
provide an update at 12z. high confidence is dry conditions this
afternoon at ksbn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
969
fxus63 kdtx 250759
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
359 am edt thu jun 25 2026

.key messages...

- morning showers with isolated thunderstorms dissipate, then
thunderstorm chances rises again this afternoon; potential exists
for isolated damaging wind gusts.

- mostly dry friday with a chance for a few evening showers near the
ohio border.

- warmer and dry this weekend.

- very hot and humid conditions are likely through the first half of
the next week as heat indices could exceed 100f; some opportunities
exist for thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...

updrafts within nocturnal convective showers positioned along the
elevated instability gradient have largely failed to intensify early
this morning. this has led to very limited lightning activity with
both the initial and secondary loosely organized shower lines. low-
end potential still exists for a few more rumbles of thunder through
the first half of the morning given antecedent conditions.

for the daylight hours, a mature surface low reorganizes as it comes
ashore over eastern lake michigan, tracking across central lower
michigan throughout the day. meanwhile, sustained moisture transport
leads to rising instability as the day progresses, at least for
portions of the forecast area. weak residual capping should erode
between 17z and 19z, and once it does, equilibrium levels could
extend all the way to the tropopause. latest href, rrfs, and local
probabilistic data support instability metrics nearing 1 kj/kg
during the diurnal maximum this afternoon, although moisture quality
issues may develop along/south of i-94. highest 0-6 km bulk shear
located south of m-59 still appears displaced from the better
instability to the north. regardless, expect a better convective
response from the tri-cities, across the thumb, and southward toward
metro detroit. overall coverage with this marginal event will be
isolated to scattered, but some organized storms still pose a low-
end isolated severe wind threat. latest spc convective outlook did
include a small marginal risk area tied to the potential for a few
discrete stronger cells, but the bulk of southeast michigan that
sees storms later today should be sub-severe. high temperatures will
vary from north to south, with better chances to end a 12-day streak
of sub-80f maxts across the southern portion of the area. this
occurs, in part, due to lower cloud cover and increasingly sparse
convective coverage. the system`s cold front should be departing
between 21z and 00z, so subsidence should take over and quickly
suppress late evening activity after the boundary-layer decouples.
upper midwest high pressure builds in behind the low overnight with
mainly dry conditions expected.

damping shortwave ridge works over the great lakes on friday while a
low amplitude embedded trough originating from the four corners
lifts into the ohio valley. most guidance now keeps all of southeast
michigan dry as the cyclonic wave`s rain shield approaches the
michigan/ohio border, attributed to extensive column dryness and
weak ene flow in the lowest 3 kft. cannot fully rule out parts of
lenawee and monroe counties getting clipped by some brief showers
(or perhaps just virga) friday evening (see nam 3 km and 12 km). dry
across the rest of the forecast area with temperatures slightly
below normal with lake huron modification.

high pressure influence persists over the weekend with mainly dry
conditions and thermal moderation as height rises commence within
the backdrop of major longwave pattern changes for central and
eastern conus. continental ridge amplification becomes much more
pronounced by early next week as the 500 mb geopotential height
center spikes above 597 dam near the confluence of the mississippi
and ohio rivers. the composite ridge axis will drift slightly
eastward mid-week making tuesday and wednesday the hottest days of
next week. air temperatures should have no trouble reaching 90+
degrees, and with a positively tilted progressive pacific northwest
wave getting steered back into southwestern canada, a confluent low-
level jet tracing back to the gulf will usher 70f dewpoints into
southern lower michigan. expect heat indices to easily break 100f if
current trends hold as expected; therefore, heat-related headlines
will probably be needed. convective potential persists in both the
possibility for mcs longevity and perhaps surface-based free-
convection.

&&

.marine...

a weak low pressure system will continue it`s slow trek across
central lower michigan through this afternoon. this brings the
potential for some rain showers, potentially even some
thunderstorms, throughout this period. winds are expected to be
relatively calm due to the overall weak pressure gradient of this
low pressure system. if any thunderstorms were to develop during
this time period they would be capable of locally higher wind gusts.
after this system departs to the east, a high pressure system is
expected to develop over our region throughout the weekend, bringing
warmer and calmer weather along with it.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1148 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

aviation...

remnant convection will be working across the local airspace for the
start of the new forecast period. this is expected to clear the
terminal corridor within the first hour or two of the new period
with a lull in rain as a dry slot works overhead. arrival of the
parent low over central lower mi early morning allows richer lower
level moisture to expand into the region supporting ceilings lowering
toward mvfr in the south and ifr possible in the north. some
scattered showers (perhaps an isolated thunderstorm) still looking
to develop on the nose of this moisture around sunrise, though
there`s a high degree of uncertainty if it occurs around or just
east of the terminals. for now have only maintained prob30 for det
while keeping precip mention out of the rest of the sites. clouds
begin to scatter south to north this afternoon as drier air fills
in.

d21/dtw convection... low chance (below 30%) for a thunderstorm
between roughly 06-08z before activity pushes east.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through this morning, low
by afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms between roughly 06z and 08z tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......zb/drk
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.