Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
737 am edt sun aug 2 2026

.what has changed...
confidence continues to increase across the region for heavy rain
and potential flash flooding today, and a flood watch has been
issued for the entire forecast area. a limited strong to severe
storm risk remains across the eastern half of the area today with
strong to damaging wind gusts or a tornado possible.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and storms will continue across the area today. rain will
bring efficient, heavy rainfall at times, posing a flash flooding
threat to the entire area. isolated strong to severe storms are
possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania.

2) monday and tuesday have trended drier, but scattered shower and
storm chances will return for wednesday through the end of the week.
temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a low pressure system over central indiana will continue to
slowly move east through the ohio valley today. rain continues
to move north across the forecast area on the northeast side of
this system. meanwhile, some persistent rain showers are present
in southern michigan and northern indiana in a deformation zone
with this low, immediately with the upper trough axis. this
band of precipitation will be the first concern of the day as it
pivots toward the toledo metro area. aloft, a coupled jet
situation will develop with a left exit region of the southerly
jet and the right entrance region of the northerly jet align
over northern ohio later today. this will enhance the lift
across the region and allow for this band of rain to become
heavier with more efficient precipitation rates. portions of
northwest ohio will get 1 to 2 inches of rainfall by this
afternoon and some areas could receive higher amounts where rain
persists. elsewhere, a band of moderate to heavy rain continues
moving northeast through northern ohio early this morning. this
band is progressing well and a dry slot is developing over
central ohio and moving into the forecast area. this will allow
for some recovery before new showers and storms develop later
this morning into the afternoon. rainfall in ne oh and nw pa
will be around an inch with locally higher amounts possible,
especially in convective cores that develop this afternoon. with
heavy rain potential for several portions of the forecast area,
have gone ahead and issued a flood watch for the entire area.
the flood watch for northwest ohio will start now and go through
5 pm this afternoon. for the rest of the area, the flood watch
will start at 10 am this morning and go through midnight
tonight.

the other forecast concern for today will be the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms. this will mainly be an issue for the
eastern half of the forecast area, as the western half will likely
continue to be worked over by heavy rain this morning. as the
surface low moves across northern ohio today and the coupled jet
aloft provides ample lift, new showers and storms should develop
during the late morning and early afternoon hours. a break in
convective activity over the eastern half of the forecast area
should allow for some instability to build, especially if we can get
a couple breaks in the clouds and get temperatures in the lower 80s.
the most likely severe weather threat would be strong to damaging
wind gusts in some wet microbursts. however, given the shear in the
region from the surface low and upper trough moving through and some
slightly backed flow ahead of the low, there is a non-zero tornado
threat this afternoon.

key message 2...
the upper trough from the system moving through the region
today will amplify and form a cut off upper low. the trends in
this upper low are much further south over the past couple of
forecast cycles. this then depicts some upper ridging over the
local area as surface high pressure enters the region from the
north. the result is a drier forecast for the area on monday and
tuesday with generally seasonable temperatures. on wednesday,
the upper low will get absorbed into an upper trough moving
through the great lakes region. this will mean rain chances will
return on wednesday, especially areas south and east. the upper
trough pattern will remain over the region through the end of
the week and provide support for daily, scattered rain chances.
temperatures will remain near normal.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
ifr to mvfr ceilings have begun to push into the area,
primarily impacted terminals west of i71 this morning but these
are expected to continue to expand east. much of the area is
seeing a break in precipitation this morning, however additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the
evening. with this second round of precipitation, expect
additional diminished visibilities less than 4sm. very heavy and
efficient rainfall is expected so in the most well developed
storms, these visibilities could be reduced to ifr or even lifr.
given some uncertainty in overall timing of showers throughout
the day opted to handle much of the diminished conditions
associated with showers and storms using tempo/prob30. after
sunset tonight, conditions should gradually begin to improve
across the area with showers pushing east and ceilings slowly
beginning to rise.

winds ahead of the surface low will be from the south-southeast
at 5-10 knots with winds behind the low from the northeast at
5-12 knots. gusty winds up to 20 knots are possible behind the
low, likely impacting the far western terminals through sunset.

outlook...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
potential for non-vfr continue monday through wednesday,
primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.marine...
a low pressure system will continue to move east today across
the ohio valley, staying just south of lake erie. the
positioning of this system will keep northeast winds of 15-20
knots across the lake, gradually becoming more northerly by
tonight. winds in the latest forecast guidance have increased a
bit which is support by current observations near toledo. due to
this and the likelihood of waves building to 3-5 feet, a small
craft advisory and beach hazards statement have been issued from
now into this evening for the western basin. as those winds gain
a more northerly component, expect waves to begin building
across the central basin as well. have opted to issued a small
craft and beach hazards for the central basin as well beginning
this afternoon and going into monday morning. as high pressure
builds in tomorrow, north-northeast winds will gradually weaken
to 5-10 knots and waves will diminish to 2 feet or less. these
conditions will persist through mid-week before another low
pressure system looks to impact the area on thursday into
friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through late tonight for ohz003-007.
flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for ohz003-006>009-
017>019-027-028.
beach hazards statement from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
monday morning for ohz009>012-089.
flood watch through this evening for ohz010>014-020>023-
029>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...flood watch through this evening for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt monday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt
monday for lez144>148.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 021158
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
758 am edt sun aug 2 2026

.key messages...

- a flood watch remains in effect for portions of northern
indiana and northwest ohio until 5 pm edt this evening.
moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms could be slow
moving or repeatedly form over the same area today,
potentially causing flooding. the best chances for rain (60-90
percent) will be along and south of us 24 as we head into the
afternoon hours.

- dangerous swimming conditions are expected at
lake michigan beaches along the la porte county, in and
berrien county, mi shoreline today and tonight. life-
threatening waves and currents are expected, especially this
afternoon and tonight. a beach hazards statement is in effect.
for details, visit www.weather.gov/greatlakes/beachhazards

- mostly dry conditions tonight into wednesday. highs will be in
the upper 70s and low to mid 80s, warmest wednesday. chances
for showers and storms return wednesday night and persist into
the weekend. the best potential (30-60 percent) will be
wednesday night into thursday, then lower chances (20 to 40
percent) persist into the weekend. highs will be in the 80s
thursday into the weekend, warmest sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 301 am edt sun aug 2 2026

cancelled the flood watch early for portions of northern in as most
of the high-res guidance has backed off on the higher rainfall
totals in those areas. otherwise, the deformation zone associated
with the upper low/trough (which are presently occurring where we
didn`t get as much precipitation earlier today) moves through. a
shortwave will drop south across lake mi/lower mi around 18-00z
before the upper ridge moves in and puts an end to precip chances.
surface winds shift from more northeast to n-nw behind this feature
near the lake, with an area of convergence developing. have pops
persisting through the day, with around 20-50 percent northwest and
then 60-90 percent along/south of us 24. the environment supports
efficient rain-producing cells, so if there are storms that end up
redeveloping/training over the same area or there are cells that
remain fairly stationary for longer periods of time as the broader
surface low/trough meanders e-ne, we could end up with some
localized flooding. high-res guidance focuses the best potential in
nw oh and portions of northern indiana. kept the watch going for the
in counties, and then expanded the watch into nw ohio in
collaboration with nws cle/dtx. around an inch or so of
precipitation has fallen in many areas within the watch, and an
additional 1 to 2 inches is expected through the day (of course,
locally higher amounts possible).

with the trough sinking down this afternoon, present nne flow shift
more n-nw for a period on lake michigan. waves are presently at
around 2-4 feet, lowest up near south haven, mi where wave periods
are about 4 seconds. further south near michigan city, waves are
greatest with longer periods of around 6 seconds. yesterday
afternoon/evening, waves at michigan city got up to around 5 feet,
and around 4 feet near warren dunes, mi. northern berrien (including
silver beach in st. joseph, mi) and the south haven area (buoy
45168) lingered around 2 feet. we are in the `lull-period` where
waves may briefly drop early this morning into the first part of the
day, but expect them to reach heights of 4 to 7 feet as the flow
becomes more onshore (vs somewhat shore parallel). wave periods
begin to lengthen to more like 6-8 seconds by late afternoon and
early evening, especially further south. will persist with the
current marine headlines where southern berrien county, mi and la
porte county, in are in a beach hazards statement all day today and
continuing into monday morning. northern berrien county, mi
(including silver beach in st. joseph, mi) will be mostly moderate
swim risk conditions until 5 pm edt, when winds and waves pick up.
have the beach hazards statement starting at that time and
persisting through monday morning. the small craft advisory for the
marine zones remains the same as well, with winds/waves dropping
below criteria around 5 am edt.

expect a strong longshore current moving from n to s along the
shore, with strong structural currents expected (particularly on the
north sides of piers and breakwalls). rip currents are expected
given increasing wave heights and lengthening wave periods,
especially this afternoon when winds/waves become more directly
onshore (vs more oblique or shore-parallel as they are this
morning). wave heights diminish late tonight/early mon am towards
around 2-3 feet, but wave periods remain around 6-7 seconds through
early monday afternoon. kept the bh.s end time at 8 am mon, with a
moderate swim risk forecast for all but northern berrien county, mi
during the day on monday. by the afternoon, waves should be only
around 1-2 feet.

mostly dry conditions tonight into wednesday with an upper
ridge/surface high in place. highs will be in the upper 70s and low
to mid 80s, warmest wednesday. chances for showers and storms return
wednesday night and persist into the weekend as a broad upper level
low moves across the canadian prairie and into hudson bay. this will
bring a trough and cold front into the cwa by wed night-sinking
southeastward and stalling somewhere across our cwa into thursday.
guidance is all over the place for friday into the weekend, with
some shifting the boundary southeast out of our area and others
bringing in a secondary trough axis that keeps potential for
precipitation going into the weekend. the best potential for
showers/storms (30-60 percent) will be wednesday night into
thursday, then lower chances (20 to 40 percent) persist into the
weekend given model discrepancies. highs will be in the 80s thursday
into the weekend, warmest sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 747 am edt sun aug 2 2026

predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions at ksbn through the period,
and ifr/mvfr at kfwa. deformation zone associated with the upper
level low/trough and the nearby occluding surface low will
persist through the afternoon, eventually shifting southeastward
and tapering off by the evening. current band of precipitation
stretches from karb down through kadg/kfwa/kmzz as of this
writing, with moderate to heavy rain reported at kfwa (dropped
to 600 ft ceilings/2sm vis). think it will linger closer to
1kft and 4sm through the morning, but kept a tempo with
bkn006/2sm to cover any additional heavier showers through the
morning. there could be a few storms around this afternoon near
kfwa as we get some daytime heating, but confidence was too low
to keep in taf. improvement to vfr is likely late this afternoon
and evening, then with clearing skies and lingering low level
moisture, we`ll see potential for some br after 7z.

ksbn should remain mostly dry and trend towards vfr, though
there is potential for a stray shower this afternoon (left out
for now given lower confidence). no signals of br development
later tonight like at kfwa, likely due to less rainfall and
lingering low level moisture near the terminal.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for inz007>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034.
beach hazards statement through monday morning for inz103.
oh...flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...beach hazards statement through monday morning for miz277.
beach hazards statement from 5 pm edt this afternoon through
monday morning for miz177.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 020952
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
552 am edt sun aug 2 2026

.key messages...

- a flood watch is in effect today for the area generally along and
east of a line from port huron to pontiac to adrian.

- a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms becomes focused over
the watch area this morning. it brings potential for heavy rainfall
and flooding until diminishing mid to late afternoon.

- dry weather returns monday through tuesday with temperatures
around normal for early august.

- the next chance of rain arrives with a front on wednesday. this
front lingers around the region during the late week period.

&&

.aviation...

center of low pressure migrates toward western lake erie this
morning before drifting farther eastward later today. moisture
convergence along a relatively narrow axis north of the low is
driving a band of slow-moving showers that will affect far se mi the
rest of the morning, including the metro detroit taf sites. these
showers will be heavy at times, and low probability exists for
embedded thunderstorms. flight category will experience fluctuations
through the morning, but in general expect prevailing mvfr to settle
in with potential for intervals of ifr mainly near the rain band.
northeast wind becomes gusty to around 20 to 25 kt this afternoon as
the system begins to depart. drier air works in from northwest to
southeast, promoting a gradual trend back to vfr conditions as
showers depart. mvfr or lower vfr ceilings may persist in the
detroit vicinity until wind direction backs more northerly late this
evening.

d21/dtw convection... there is a low chance of thunderstorms this
morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today.

* low for thunderstorms through 16z.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 am edt sun aug 2 2026

discussion...

the ohio valley/southern great lakes low pressure system remains the
forecast focus as it still presents a heavy rain threat today. a
positive development is that evolution of the system helps confine
heavy rain potential to about the southeast half of se mi, more so
the counties along/near the canadian border. the area is narrowed
down by the northern stream mid/upper level trough digging from
northern ontario into the central great lakes while forcing strong
contraction of the ohio valley trough. this results in very good
model agreement on a much sharper deformation zone overhead that is
capable of heavy rainfall during the morning. the larger scale
environment supports several hours of strong dynamic forcing within
an unstable thermal profile, weak but still unstable, with a deep
moisture supply. bulk parameters for elevated instability are weak
but favorable, such as 850 mb li slightly negative in a moist
adiabatic profile. dewpoint at 700 mb in the 5-7 c range is also
impressive and reflects the warm rain efficiency suggested by pw
hovering around 1.8 inches through the morning. the deformation band
solidifies through sunrise and is slow to move off a sw to ne axis
over far se mi presenting a lengthy period of time for heavy rain
and potential flooding. consensus of regional and global models has
event total qpf in the 1-3 inch range while href 3-6 hr pmm mean qpf
exceeds 3 inches. refs pmm mean is less bullish and farther east to
remind us there is still some uncertainty on the final band
location. hi-res versions of the nam offer much higher qpf to also
remind us there is some uncertainty on magnitude as well. bottom
line here is that small changes in the band location can result in
big changes to the rainfall outcome. please see the earlier issued
flood watch and the hydro section below.

the rain band exits eastward by late afternoon as the mid/upper
level trough and surface low shift to over lake erie/ontario.
moderate northerly wind trails the system across the central great
lakes which brings cooler and less humid air into se mi tonight and
monday. guidance low temperatures drop into the mid 50s outside of
metro detroit and return to around 80 monday afternoon, right around
normal for early august.

a large area of high pressure is shown to set up and dominate
conditions across the great lakes for the early week period. dry
weather holds through tuesday until the next low pressure system
approaches from the plains and central canada. it brings a cold
front that stays in the picture from wednesday through late week.

marine...

northeast flow picks up across the central great lakes today as a
low pressure system lifts across the ohio valley. the strongest flow
will channel across saginaw bay leading to small craft advisory
conditions, with elevated winds and waves expected for the rest of
the lake huron nearshore. the small craft advisory was expanded to
account for the remaining southern lake huron zones, slightly later
in time. the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms
persists until this evening. an isolated storm or two could produce
locally strong winds and elevated waves, more so along the southern
waterways. high pressure influence then builds into the region
tonight and into monday offering drier weather and weaker winds. no
significant weather is expected the the mid-week time-frame.

hydrology...

a flood watch is in effect today for the area generally along and
east of a line from port huron to pontiac to adrian. a slow moving
band of showers and embedded thunderstorms solidifies from southwest
to northeast over far se michigan during the early morning. rain
will be heavy at times and be capable of producing high rainfall
totals in a short period of time. flood watch area rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches in 2 to 3 hours are likely, with a chance for
locally higher amounts. rainfall totals could reach or exceed 3
inches within the watch area from 6 am to noon. flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas. there is a chance for extensive
road flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. a
diminishing trend begins after 2 pm this afternoon.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement through this evening for miz049.

flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz063-069-070-075-
076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory from noon today to 4 am edt monday for
lhz441>443.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from noon today to 4 am edt monday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...bt
marine.......kgk
hydrology....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.