Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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536
fxus61 kcle 011907
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
207 pm est sun feb 1 2026

.what has changed...
overall, very little has changed with the forecast. there`s
still relatively high confidence in accumulating snowfall
towards the end of the week, but confidence in snow
accumulations and the resulting impacts is still low.

&&

.key messages...
1) cold temperatures are expected tonight with minimum
temperatures near or below zero degrees and wind chills to 10
degrees below zero or colder expected.

2) light snow chances return on monday, which could produce
marginal travel impacts.

3) there is increasing potential widespread accumulating
snowfall late in the week. travel impacts are possible, but
confidence in snow accumulations and the resulting impacts remains
low at this time.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
tonight will be the last night of frigid temperatures (for a few
days, at least) as arctic high pressure slowly drifts away from
the region. temperatures will generally be coldest at typical
cold/rural spots in eastern and southern portions of the cwa;
lows will likely dip several degrees below zero and will chills
will likely be as cold as 10 to 15 degrees below zero,
especially if skies end up being completely clear. elsewhere,
lows will be in the single digits to near zero degrees with
subzero wind chills. opted against a cold weather advisory given
the potential for lingering cloud cover and an upper ridge axis
building into the region, but it may get close in a few spots.
will keep an eye on satellite/sky cover trends through tonight.
either way, the continued cold will likely produce impacts on
infrastructure (i.e., frozen pipes) and pose a risk for
frostbite and hypothermia if necessary precautions are not
taken.

temperatures will finally "warm" (speaking very relatively here)
on monday as warm air advection develops behind the ridge axis.
highs will be in the 20s for at least the first half of the week
with overnight lows in the teens expected tuesday. single digit
lows will likely return for the middle of the week.

key message 2...
chances of light snow showers will return to the region as a
shortwave and weak warm front move east across the local area
monday. have widespread slight chance to low end chance (20 to
about 30 percent) pops across the entire local area, although
coverage may be quite scattered. any snow accumulations will be
minor (below an inch), but similar to recent light snow
scenarios, snow will likely accumulate on sub-freezing paved
surfaces. the snow could produce minor travel impacts including
slippery travel and pockets of reduced visibility.

key message 3...
confidence continues to increase for widespread snowfall as low
pressure moves southeast from the great lakes friday, although
there`s still uncertainty in the timing/placement of the
surface low`s associated upper trough which has an impact on qpf
and the resulting snow accumulations/impacts. at this point, it
appears that the highest snow accumulations could occur across
the snowbelt region of ne oh and nw pa thanks to the added
moisture from the upstream great lakes. longer range ensemble
probabilities suggest that there is potential for at least 4
inches of snowfall between the low on friday and possible lake
effect snow as colder air (once again) moves over the region
into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
across the region, airfields are currently vfr and will continue
through the first part of the taf period. along the lakeshore, there
are a few sites with mvfr ceilings due to some mvfr lake effect
clouds. those should dissipate in the next few hours as drier air
moves in. there is potential for ifr ceilings after 06z tonight with
a low-level inversion in place across much of the region, though
confidence is low in how widespread the ceilings will be so opted
for tempo group to account for this. afterwards, a weak cold front
will approach the region from the west and keep ceilings at non-vfr
through the end of the taf period. in addition, there is potential
for snow showers and non-vfr visibilities. this will mainly be
across western taf sites as the showers will be still crossing
the area by the end of the period.

winds will continue to light at less than 10 knots through the end
of the taf period. currently, winds are out of the northwest and
will start to back to be more southwesterly this evening. winds will
be variable overnight though mainly out of the west to southwest,
then will back to be more southerly by tomorrow morning ahead of the
approaching cold front.

outlook...periodic non-vfr due to low clouds and/or snow expected
through this thursday. non-vfr likely thursday night into friday
with a cold front moving through the region.

&&

.marine...
wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this
thursday. primarily n`erly to w`erly winds are forecast on lake erie
today as a ridge builds from the western great lakes. the ridge
begins to exit e`ward tonight through monday, which will cause
w`erly winds to shift to sw`erly. the sw`erly winds veer to w`erly
to nw`erly monday night through tuesday as a weak cold front drifts
e`ward across lake erie. behind the front, mainly w`erly to nw`erly
winds are expected through wednesday night as another ridge builds
from the north-central united states and vicinity. on thursday,
w`erly winds should back to sw`erly as the ridge begins to exit
toward the northeast united states. the continued presence of a cold
air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice
cover on lake erie to expand and thicken further through
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...23
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 011836
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
136 pm est sun feb 1 2026

.key messages...

- light snow arriving monday morning could impact the morning
commute, especially around the greater south bend area.

- snow moves from west to east monday bringing accumulations of
less than 1 inch.

- not quite as cold this week with highs in the 20s and lows in
the teens to single-digits.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 136 pm est sun feb 1 2026

a narrow upper-level trough is dropping south through minnesota and
iowa this afternoon with an area of snow encountering a very
dry air mass, characterized by 15f dew point depressions. as a
result, very few observing stations are reporting snow beneath
radar returns. the area of snow is forecast to fade this
afternoon, yet additional returns further northwest are forecast
to survive into our area late tonight and through monday as the
trough drops south. dew points here have already recovered into
the teens at some stations with 805-mb warm air advection
underway.

light snow for the monday morning commute, primarily in northwest in
and southwest mi, could result in instances of slippery travel.
limitations to this system include an elevated and poorly saturated
dendritic growth zone, along with lackluster moisture and forcing.
snow totals will certainly be less than 1 inch, with the greatest
opportunity for accumulation along and north of us 6 as previously
mentioned in this space. this system now looks to have exited the
fort wayne area before the evening commute. lackluster
inversion heights (less then 5kft) look to limit any lake effect
snow chances behind this disturbance.

upper-level heights quickly rebound and warm air advection takes
shape tuesday. developing low pressure over the tennessee valley
wednesday permits canadian high pressure to move into the midwest,
knocking down temperatures for a day. the next clipper arrives
friday with arctic high pressure returning for the weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1155 am est sun feb 1 2026

quiet, dry weather continues today as high pressure is over the
great lakes. changes are coming though for monday as a clipper
system drops in from the northwest. southerly winds should pick
up this afternoon to around 10kts. clouds advect in this evening
and ceilings will rapidly drop overnight. expect vfr ceilings
until about 03z-06z monday, then ifr ceilings and visibilities
will prevail after 06z-09z monday as light snow begins. as
monday morning progresses, ceilings will likely drop even
further to between 500-1000 ft. snow exits the area around the
end of the taf forecast period, although low ceilings will
remain through at least the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 011719
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1219 pm est sun feb 1 2026

.key messages...

- mostly sunny today with afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 20s
with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

- chance for snow showers monday with expected snow accumulations
under an inch. better accumulation for an inch or greater at the end
of the week.

&&

.aviation...

stretch of generally dry and stable conditions will persist through
tonight. passage of a surface ridge will result in a wind shift from
northwest to southwest during the latter half of the day. this may
draw a lingering area of mvfr cloud cover off lake michigan into
mainly mbs at times through tonight. otherwise, mainly clear skies
favored until high based cloud arrives late tonight associated with
an inbound mid level disturbance. this system will bring a chance of
light snow starting during the latter half of monday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft late tonight. high monday.

* high for ptype as snow monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 am est sun feb 1 2026

discussion...

dry air has allowed for great radiational cooling conditions this
morning resulting in a very cold start to the day. observations have
all of the area down into the single digit low temperatures with
several locations outside of the detroit metro region below zero.
the lighter winds are bringing wind chills in the -5 to -15 degree
range with some localized spots dropping below -15 degrees at times.
a ridge will then cross over the great lakes throughout the day
centering over michigan this afternoon. high pressure with the dry
air will bring mostly clear skies today for most of southeast
michigan. the exception will be along the lake huron shoreline where
north- northwest flow will maintain some lower level moisture for
scattered clouds. the sunny skies and a boost of a few degrees at
850mb temperatures with the ridge should help increase afternoon high
temperatures today into the low-mid 20s. another chilly night is
expected tonight into monday morning, though increasing clouds late
will keep temperatures from falling further. lows tonight should
reach the single digits with minimum winds chills few degrees below
zero.

the increasing clouds will be associated with the arrival of a weak
shortwave trough that will swing through the great lakes monday.
light snowfall will spread west to east from about 6 am and into the
afternoon. forcing with this trough will be weak. add in the lack of
strong moisture advection (specific humidity less than 2 g/kg and
qpf of maybe a hundredth or two) with the dry resident airmass and
overall accumulation potential should be pretty limited. most of the
area will have potential to see a dusting to a tenth or two of
accumulation with a low probability to achieve accumulation of a half
inch by the evening. the passing of the trough will bring a west to
northwest lower level wind shift monday evening into early tuesday
morning offers a period of light lake effects showers/flurries. a
shortwave clips the great lakes on tuesday offering another chance at
lake effect. forecast soundings do point toward saturation with
respect to ice in the lower part of the dgz within the cloud bearing
layer, which would allow for at least flurry potential. will keep
mention out of the forecast for now given the lower confidence as dry
air in the region will persist. daytime highs through the early to
mid week holding mostly in the low to mid 20s with some spots maybe
hitting the upper 20s.

a deeper trough will move in late thursday into friday presenting the
better accumulating snowfall potential for this upcoming week. some
differences in placement of the low pressure exists, which will
ultimately impact the snowfall totals. westerly winds kick in on
thursday afternoon which will bring some potential for lake effect
snow showers into parts of southeast michigan before the better
forcing with pacific moisture arrives thursday evening into friday.
nbm probability to achieve 1 inch or more has trended higher with the
latest run to 70% or greater for much of southeast michigan. another
arctic airmass will follow this system and likely bring another
stretch of lake effect snow later in the day friday and into the
weekend as 850 mb temperatures plunge to -20c or below. this would
bring daytime high temperatures over the weekend in the high single
digits to the teens with wind chills to -10 degrees or below.

marine...

influence of high pressure maintains light (<15kt) winds to close
out the weekend. a weak clipper arrives late day monday but aside
for scattered light snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts with
accompanying winds holding at or below 20kts. another high dropping
out of the upper midwest then follows for midweek bringing quiet
marine weather.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.