Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
849
fxus61 kcle 101956
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
356 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

.what has changed...
winds have further trended up along the lakeshore from cuyahoga
to erie county, pa tonight and sunday morning. wind gusts of 35
to 45 mph are likely at times. rainfall amounts have slightly
decreased tonight and sunday.

&&

.key messages...
1) periods of rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight
through sunday associated with the remnants of isaias. winds
will be highest along the lakeshore from cuyahoga to erie
county, pa, where gusts of 35-45 mph are possible.

2) unseasonable warmth monday and tuesday before a cold front
moves in late tuesday, bringing some showers and thunderstorms.

3) cooler and unsettled the rest of the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
quiet and pleasantly mild conditions will continue for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening as surface high pressure
over new england gradually departs east. this will start to
strengthen the southeasterly pressure gradient between the high
and the remnant low of isaias, so some gusts up to 20 or 25 mph
are possible by mid evening, especially where downsloping is
favored in a se low-level flow set up from northern cuyahoga
county to northern erie county, pa. otherwise, clouds will just
continue to increase.

the main impacts from isaias will occur tonight and sunday as a
strong mid/upper trough progressing into the west coast deepens
mid-level southwesterly flow across the central conus. this
mid-level jet will start to eject the remnants of isaias ene at
a pretty good clip. the remnant low is currently moving into
middle tennessee and will lift across west virgina sunday
afternoon before exiting the mid atlantic coast sunday night. in
terms of winds, breezy conditions are still expected as the
pressure gradient tightens and an area of 35-40 knot 850-925 mb
winds moves overhead late tonight and sunday morning. however,
rap forecast soundings show conditions becoming fairly saturated
rapidly after 06z, and this combined with a slowly weakening
wind field will limit most gusts to around 30 mph. the exception
will be where the se low-level flow set up leads to downsloping
from northern cuyahoga county to northern erie county, pa. this
will locally increase wind gusts, so gusts to 35-45 mph are
possible there. winds will increase after 06z, with peak gusts
in the 08 to 18z sunday window. winds will turn n to ne behind
the departing low late sunday afternoon and rapidly diminish. in
terms of rain, the shield of steady rain is still expected to
lift across the region tonight and sunday morning, with
additional showers wrapping around the back side sunday
afternoon. however, qpf is trending lower due to a slightly
farther se track of the low and mid-level dry air wrapping
farther north. some locally heavy convective banding is still
possible, especially along a kcak to kyng line, but most of the
rain will be light to moderate stratiform. there remains an
unusually high amount of qpf variability in href and rrfs
guidance and individual members, including run to run flips, so
confidence in exact rainfall amounts is lower than normal. the
overall trend has been lower, so used a blend of nbm and wpc for
the final qpf forecast which is a close compromise of href and
rrfs ensemble qpf. this gives a few tenths to 0.25 inch in nw
ohio, 0.50 to 0.75 inch in north central ohio, and 0.75 to 1
inch in ne ohio (east of i-77) and nw pa. probabilities for
locally higher amounts are greatest near that kcak to kyng line.
these rainfall amounts and low stream flows combined with drying
ground should prevent any flooding except for areas that may
have blocked drains or culverts. the showers will start to move
in from south to north after 03z, with the steadiest rain in the
06z to 15z sunday window. the rain will be more intermittent
sunday afternoon as the low pulls away.

after drying out sunday evening, it is possible to see some
additional scattered, light showers sunday night as an inverted
surface trough and some low-level moisture hangs back across the
area. this is shown by a few href members, so added low pops
sunday night. another showers will quickly end by monday
morning.

key message 2...
broad mid/upper ridging will briefly flex over the eastern conus
monday and tuesday as the aforementioned western conus trough
evolves into a cut off low. this combined with surface high
pressure settling over the mid atlantic region will support deep
southerly flow and well above normal temperatures. look for
highs to reach the 75 to 80 degree range in nw ohio monday and
upper 60s to low 70s in ne ohio and nw pa. most of the cwa will
see mid 70s to low 80s tuesday. a shortwave dropping through the
central/eastern great lakes late tuesday into wednesday will
push a cold front into the region. this front is trending slower
as the cut off low over the west keeps mid/upper ridging in
place across the tennessee valley and southeast conus. the front
should still manage to push through late tuesday or tuesday
night before stalling near the ohio valley, so showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. there will be
some instability ahead of the front to support thunder given the
warmth, but a later trend should limit any strong/severe
potential. will need to watch for gusty winds though given
favorable shear.

key message 3...
as mentioned above, the front will become quasi-stationary near
the ohio valley by wednesday and linger through the end of the
week as it runs into lingering mid/upper ridging. high pressure
over the northern great lakes will bring seasonably cooler and
drier overall air, but occasional showers are still possible
given the boundary nearby. the next more significant system may
come friday as a stronger northern stream mid/upper trough
captures the old western conus cut off low and potentially leads
to a strong frontal passage across the great lakes. this would
bring better chances for rain, gusty winds, and potentially the
coolest air of the season so far late friday into saturday if
it materializes.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
a shield of rain and lower ceilings will overspread the area
overnight tonight into sunday as the remnant low pressure from
isaias lifts towards the ohio valley. vfr conditions will
continue through this evening and the first half of tonight.
there will be some mvfr vis restrictions with more intense
showers late tonight into sunday, with potential for brief ifr
vis with heavier showers and/or with a steadier period of rain,
especially towards mfd, cak, and yng. ceilings will fall to mvfr
as showers become widespread early sunday, with most sites
likely to drop to ifr at some point during the day sunday.
timing of the drop to ifr ceilings is less confident at cle,
eri, and yng due to downsloping winds, and have a slower ceiling
drop at those sites compared to the rest. kept cle low mvfr
until 18z when winds begin shifting more e-ne with this update.

winds will generally remain southeast through the taf period,
before beginning to shift more east-northeast later sunday into
sunday night. speeds will generally be 5-10kt through the first
half of tonight, increasing slightly late tonight into sunday.
due to downsloping, some 25-30kt wind gusts can occur at eri
overnight tonight and sunday morning.

outlook...showers and low ceilings with potential for widespread
ifr continue late sunday and sunday night, with gradual
improvement from west to east late sunday night into monday.
non-vfr possible tuesday with scattered showers/storms.

&&

.marine...
southeasterly winds will increase on lake erie tonight and
sunday morning as the remnants of isaias pass to the south.
winds in the 15-20 knot range are mostly expected, with periods
of 20-25 knots possible from avon point to ripley. issued
marginal small craft advisories tonight from avon point to
ripley, with the best potential for criteria to be reach at
times between about 02 and 10z. winds will rapidly decrease
sunday morning, becoming ne at 5-10 knots by late afternoon then
nw at 5-10 knots sunday night.

light winds are expected monday as high pressure builds in
before ssw winds increase to 15-25 knots monday night and
tuesday ahead of a cold front. winds will turn nw behind the
front tuesday night and decrease before a period of possibly
stronger ne winds by late wednesday and thursday as high
pressure tries to build from the north.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...sullivan
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
597
fxus63 kiwx 102217
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
617 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

.key messages...

- periods of light rain expected for areas mainly along and east of
interstate 69 late this evening into sunday morning.

- warm on monday and tuesday with highs generally in the 80s.

- low chances (10-30%) for a few showers and storms late monday
night into tuesday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 135 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

weakening deformation rain shield remains on track to clip areas
mainly along and east of the interstate 69 corridor later this
evening into sunday morning. this light rain, possibly into the
quarter to half inch range in northwest oh, will be associated with
the remnants of isaias making the more easterly turn into eastern
ky. chances for measurable rain fall off into northwest in and
southwest mi as there will likely be a rather sharp cut-off to the
precip shield. forcing and the primary moisture axis exit off to the
east by later sunday morning-afternoon. some afternoon sunshine may
allow highs to get well into the 70s in our western zones, while
clouds linger through much of the day in the east with highs
struggling to get out of the 60s.

ridging through the column settles in for sunday night with clearing
and diminishing winds potentially supporting fog development early
monday. strong warm advection within increasing low level southwest
flow then develops on monday, likely pushing afternoon highs into
the 80s.

a low amplitude shortwave will track east through the
central/northern great lakes, dropping a slowing cool front into the
local area on tuesday. this will bring slightly cooler air into at
least the northern half of the area. overall moisture quality and
forcing are not overly impressive resulting in relatively low (20-
30%) chances for a few showers/storms, best chances monday night
into tuesday morning.

for the second half of the week, there remains model spread on
whether a stronger phased system comes together over the northern
great lakes, or just a weaker northern stream shortwave tracking
southeast through the great lakes and the northeast. there should be
cold frontal passage regardless later thursday or friday with
chances for rain, and a trend toward cooler temperatures in time for
next weekend.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 615 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

post-tropical cyclone isaias will continue to lift north into
the ohio river valley tonight. skies have been overcast for much
of the day as clouds lift in from the south. scattered rain
showers can be seen on radar in central indiana and central
ohio; these showers will move north and east tonight. areas
along and east of i-69 will likely see light rain showers
overnight into early sunday. ksbn should stay completely dry
while intermittent showers are expected from 06-15z at kfwa.
rain will be scattered and light through sunday morning,
tapering off by midday. vfr ceilings tonight at kfwa will
quickly drop to mvfr (and potentially some pockets of ifr) by
early sunday morning. winds will shift from the southeast this
evening to east by sunday morning to northeast by sunday
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
887
fxus63 kdtx 102238
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
638 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

.key messages...

- much warmer today with temperatures in the upper 70s.

- next chance of rain arrives sunday, focused over the
southeasternmost areas, tied to the remnants of isaias.

- very mild, dry again monday with highs in the upper 70s to 80.

- scattered shower chances monday night-tuesday tied to a passing
cold front. this front brings a return to a more typical fall
pattern for the mid to late week period.

&&

.aviation...

remnants from hurricane isaias will lift across the southern and
central appalachians tonight and sunday. the northwestern edge of
the rain shield is forecast to extend partially into se mi on
sunday. the combination of low level moisture influx and
sub scloud layer cooling will result in high probabilities for ifr
and mvfr ceilings during much of the day sunday, with the exception
of mbs which will remain more entrenched in the drier air. model
soundings and lamp guidance suggest a rapid drop in ceilings to ifr
between 09z and 12z. in light of the low level airmass now residing
across se mi and recent observational trends across the upper ohio
valley, the taf forecast will showcase a slightly later arrival of
ifr ceilings in the metro detroit terminals, closer to 13z.
observational trends will continue to be monitored for a potential
adjustments in the 06z taf set.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast during the period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm edt sat oct 10 2026

discussion...

main weather story of today is the landfall of isaias last evening
and its ongoing extratropical transition. while se michigan is
spared of the bulk of this system, the shield of high cloud outside
represents its northern edge. while moisture quality is expected to
degrade as the gulf moisture stream cuts off, models are still
generating light rain potential sunday with a thickening cloud deck
aloft. diabatic cooling leads to a cooler day sunday with
temperatures in the cloud shield holding below 70 degrees. slightly
warmer temperatures expected further inland as the remnants of isais
pivot east into the mid-atlantic by sunday afternoon. much drier air
then fills into the great lakes sunday night-monday, which currently
stretches from the southern plains to the upper midwest. strong
subsidence signature observed in 12z soundings (e.g. top/lmn/oun)
should be the airmass that advects into se michigan sunday night,
which combined with a moistened boundary layer/longer mid-october
nights could result in fog development monday morning.

drier day than expected monday as brief ridging slides overhead.
winds shift to the southwest with the passage of the ridge axis,
quickly leading to warm advection into se michigan monday. highs
thus warm into the upper 70s with highs possibly breaking 80 degrees
tuesday. the catch to this is another opportunity for rain beginning
late monday night and lingering through mid-week. this comes as
moisture pools along the deformation axis to our north, while return
flow sets up to the south. increasing llj winds monday night bring
in the initial wave of mid-level moisture, followed by increasing
synoptic support through the day tuesday as the llj, surface
low/cold front, and finally a strong ~110 knot upper level jet work
into se michigan. while moisture depth is not overly impressive on
its own, multiple lift mechanisms through the day will compensate
for this at least partially to keep rain chances going.
thermodynamic profiles show a strong elevated mixed layer (mid level
lapse rates ~7.0 c/km), so cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder
particularly as the front comes through during peak heating. swody3
has designated general thunder for most of the state.

passage of the cold front establishes strong cold advection across
the region between 00z wed thru 00z thu. for reference the 10.06z
ecmwf has h8 temps dropping from 15 c to 7 c. this brings surface
temps back toward normal values for mid-october by mid-week (mid-60s
highs and mid 40s temps). this cooler airmass is likely to keeping
cloud cover and possibly lake induced showers around through
wednesday given still warm lake temperatures in the teens and n/nw
flow. high pressure will eventually erode moisture ahead of a strong
low that draws even cooler temperatures into se michigan by next
weekend.

marine...

remnants from hurricane isaias has strengthened the pressure
gradient across the great lakes, resulting in breezy southeast flow
that will continue into tonight. gusts 20 to 25 knots are expected
through south and central lake huron, sporadically peaking around 30
knots over north-central lake huron where the fetch is more
favorable. small craft advisories remain in effect from port austin
to port sanilac with the elevated wave heights in effect. sporadic
gust to gales will be possible across north-central lake huron,
however, confidence in achieving gales remains very low noting high
stability over the lakes which will greatly hamper or nullify any
mixing of stronger winds aloft.

breezy conditions will subside through tomorrow as a ridge of high
pressure fills in. remnant moisture from the tropical system will
also bring the chance for rain showers overnight. on and off rain
showers and some low-end storm chances will be possible through next
week as a couple of systems moves through.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mv
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.