Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
220
fxus61 kcle 061206
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
706 am est sat dec 6 2025

.synopsis...
a weak cold front will move in from the northwest and stall
over lake erie today. a weak clipper system will move along the
stalled boundary on sunday followed by a stronger cold frontal
passage. high pressure will build in monday before departing to
the east coast on tuesday.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
the main message for this forecast update will be the colder
than average temperatures expected and a somewhat active weather
pattern for wintry weather. the overall weather pattern
continues to be favor a large, broad upper level trough across
the great lakes and ohio valley region.

a weak cold front is currently moving through the great lakes
this morning and will eventually stall out over the eastern
great lakes by this evening. moisture levels are rather limited
with some mid level dry air. regional radar composite indicates
precip falling from higher level clouds but most of it not
reaching the ground at this time. as the weak cold front and
surface convergence interacts with the added moisture of lake
erie later today, a band of lake effect or lake enhanced light
snow will develop over the lake and move towards the lakeshore
late this morning through the afternoon. ahead of this
approaching cold front, southwesterly winds will also try to
bring in some shallow low level moisture which some of the high-
res forecast models indicate some spotty graupel type flurries
or maybe some slight chance of freezing drizzle possibly for a
brief period of time later this morning into the afternoon.

the better chance of light snow or wintry weather will be
closer to the weak front and lake enhanced band that forms later
today into this evening, mainly impacting the lakeshore areas
of far neoh and nwpa. snowfall will be light up to an inch or
two for parts of erie county pa over towards northern ashtabula
county oh. high temperatures will be in the lower and middle 30s
today. overnight low temperatures tonight will be back down in
the lower to middle 20s.

the next weather system will arrive tomorrow in the form of a
weak clipper system that will track across the upper midwest
and through the lower great lakes on sunday. moisture will also
be limited with the system on sunday. but all of northern ohio
and northwest pennsylvania has a chance of light snow on sunday
as this system moves across the area from west to east. a
slightly stronger cold front will move through sunday afternoon
as this system moves across. all of the area has the potential
of seeing up to 1 inch of light snowfall on sunday. behind the
cold front, northwesterly winds will push in colder air aloft
and help generate some lake effect or lake enhancement snow
showers late sunday afternoon into the overnight for the
snowbelt. light snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may be
possible for the snowbelt sunday into sunday night. high
temperatures on sunday will occur before the cold front in the
lower to middle 30s. low temperatures sunday night will be
colder back down in the teens.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
high pressure will build over the great lakes region on monday.
despite some sunshine monday, afternoon high temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 20s. high pressure will move off
towards the new england coast late monday night into tuesday.
another shortwave trough and associated clipper system will
dive through the great lakes region on tuesday. the track of
this low pressure and clipper system will mainly be north of our
area but will squirt our northern counties of neoh and nwpa
with a round of light snow late on tuesday. southwesterly winds
will increase on tuesday 15 to 25 mph as the low pressure system
tracks north of lake erie.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
model guidance continues to indicate a cold and active wintry
weather pattern through the end of next week. forecast guidance
continues to show a stronger clipper system tracking across the
great lakes region on wednesday. southerly to southwesterly
winds will increase 20 to 30 mph on wednesday ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. there will widespread precip
starting out as light snow but changing over to light rain as
temperatures briefly warm up above freezing on wednesday into
upper 30s to around 40 degrees. a stronger cold front will move
through as the clipper system tracks through the region late
wednesday. colder air will push back in wednesday night through
the end of next week with the potential for another clipper
system to track across the area later in the week. the general
message for the middle and end of next week looks colder with
several rounds of light snow from clippers followed by some
decent lake effect snow potentially.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
conditions across the airspace are generally vfr ahead of a cold
front. however, some mvfr ceilings and visibility has encroached
on southeast portions of the forecast area, particularly kcak,
and will maintain for much of the day. with the cold front
sweeping through today and some increased low level moisture,
expecting some snow showers to flare up to the lee of lake erie,
mainly impacting keri this afternoon. elsewhere, the increased
moisture will mainly just result in dropping ceilings down to
mvfr and perhaps some limited ifr. while not mentioned in the
tafs, there is potential for some flurries or even some freezing
drizzle to fall out of these lower ceilings this afternoon.
however, confidence in coverage is low and confidence in impact
at a terminal is even lower. winds with the front will generally
be southwest with some veering to the west this afternoon and
evening.

brief high pressure will build in behind the front and winds
will back to the south tonight with snow getting pushed back
north over lake erie. a clipper system will enter for sunday and
bring snow to the region. any impacts will be after 12z so only
have snow mentioned in the kcle taf with some ifr expected.

outlook...periods of ifr is expected areawide with widespread
light snow on sunday. non-vfr is expected again with snow on
tuesday and a rain/snow mix on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds on the lake will increase today to 15 to 20 kts
with a cold front pushing across the area. waves will build to 2
to 5 ft with the elevated winds and the small craft advisory for
the eastern half of the lake remains valid. winds will become
briefly westerly tonight behind the front. for sunday, a clipper
system will move through the region and this low will offer
some brief elevated winds with southwest winds to start on
sunday and northwest to north winds behind the low by sunday
night. winds with this low will be in the 15 to 20 kt range
again and once the flow becomes onshore, waves will exceed 4 ft
and another small craft advisory will be needed. high pressure
will build into the region for monday and winds will decrease
over the lake and eventually become offshore again, ending the
need for a marine headline for a day or two.

for tuesday and wednesday, there will be a sequence of low
pressure systems that will move through the great lakes region.
the first, weaker low will enhance southwest flow on the lake on
tuesday, as quickly passes to the north of the lake. suspect
that winds will be near 30 kts by tuesday afternoon for most of
the lake and marine headlines will be needed. for wednesday, a
stronger low will pass closer to the lake and the potential for
gale force winds is increasing. with strong southwest flow being
favored, water levels for the western basin of lake erie will
need to be monitored but low water advisories are possible,
especially if winds reach 30 kts next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...77
near term...77
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
869
fxus63 kiwx 061400
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
900 am est sat dec 6 2025

.key messages...

- highs in the 30s through wednesday except briefly colder
monday and again next friday and saturday with highs only in
the lower 20s. morning lows on monday, tuesday, and next
saturday will again dip down into the single digits.

- snow accumulations of 1-3 inches tonight into sunday afternoon,
highest totals near lake michigan. limited impacts expected.

- snow mixed with rain at times through this upcoming week.
impacts should be limited.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 402 am est sat dec 6 2025

southwest flow at the surface was ahead of a cold front that
extended from pia to ord overnight. kept a slight chance for light
snow and light freezing drizzle into this morning. bufkit soundings
support more of a freezing drizzle sounding given a relative warm
cold layer (-5c). surface reports and radar imagery show
precipitation and returns mainly north of highway 30. weak cold air
advection in the cloud layer with subsidence above will help
continue to support a a building subsidence inversion.

two more reinforcing surges of cold air will bring returns of arctic
air this weekend. inversion heights should be limited for lake
effect snow. however, system snow should reach the forecast area
late saturday night and taper to lake flurries sunday afternoon.
bufkit sounding favor 2-3" of snow mainly north of highway 30
this weekend with less than an inch at lima. the second surge of
arctic air should arrive late sunday. wind chill temperatures
are likely to fall below zero sunday night and monday night.
current thinking that these 2 nights will not need headlines,
but can be handled with special weather statements.

temperatures will try to make it close to normal wednesday, but then
fall again late this upcoming week with the next arctic surge. highs
by saturday may not make it to 20 degrees. dynamic ensemble data appears
to be too weak with the system snow this weekend, but indicates
about 3" of snow is expected late this upcoming week with the
next system. wpc winter weather forecast does show a 10-30%
chance of melted snow >=0.25 (water equivalent).

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 648 am est sat dec 6 2025

predominantly mvfr conditions expected at the terminals today
into tonight, with ifr possible at mainly ksbn towards the end
of the period. ceilings between 1500-2500 have overspread
northern indiana this morning and will persist through the
remainder of the period. there could be a few brief pockets of
vfr (as seen over kgyy/kigq as of this writing). it`s possible
we see a drop in visibility with some br this morning as the
cold front moves through (some of guidance had an hour of 4-5sm)
however left out of the taf for now given lower confidence.
otherwise, another system approaches tonight from west to east,
which will bring light snow to mainly ksbn (kfwa towards 12z).
some of the guidance does bring ksbn down to 2sm for
visibilities, but most of the guidance has around 4sm so went
conservative for now.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for lmz043.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
960
fxus63 kdtx 061144
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
644 am est sat dec 6 2025

.key messages...

- chance (20%) for light snow showers through the morning with very
low end chance for spotty freezing drizzle. little to no snow/ice
accumulation expected.

- widespread light snow expected sunday morning into early afternoon.
snow accumulations to range between a half-inch to two inches for
most locations.

- below normal temperatures continue this week, the coldest of which
arrive monday and tuesday. wind chill temperatures drop to or below
zero monday morning.

- active weather pattern continues into the midweek period where
additional snow chances will be possible.

&&

.aviation...

pre-frontal mvfr stratocumulus has settled over the terminals this
morning. a low-end chance remains for some inconsequential light
flurries or perhaps even a touch of freezing drizzle (for the
southern sites) through the morning hours. a cold front is expected
to traverse lower michigan today by which the drier post-frontal
airmass could lead to a brief recovery in ceilings, for the evening
hours. winds generally hold around 10 knots during the day, then
decrease overnight. ceilings lower to mvfr and possibly down to ifr
tonight as the next system approaches the great lakes. expect
accumulating snowfall to begin early sunday morning with a
progression to mvfr visibilities. ifr visibilities are possible, but
will depend heavily on the onset timing of snowfall, and when the
peak of the event (higher rates) ensue.

for dtw...mvfr ceilings for most of the day with west winds. still
can`t rule out a flurry or a few drops of freezing drizzle through
this morning. snow begins early sunday morning bringing ceiling and
visibility reductions, likely ifr during the peak, and prior to 16z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today and tonight.

* low in precipitation type as freezing rain through 15z today, then
high as snow sunday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 402 am est sat dec 6 2025

discussion...

a slow moving cold front will progress across se mi through the
morning hours which will bring the chance for some isolated to
scattered snow showers. forcing is relatively weak along the frontal
boundary so snowfall amounts will be generally confined to trace
amounts, up to a dusting. dry air subsidence will work its way down
along and within the wake of the front which will subtly diminish
the integrity of moisture within the dgz, bringing very low-end
chances for spotty freezing drizzle through the morning. dry air
advection and enhanced subsidence in the wake of the front will then bring
dry weather for the remainder of the day with temperatures
increasing to around the freezing mark for afternoon highs. wind
chill temperatures will stay in the 20s given wind gusts peaking
around 15 mph this afternoon.

attention will then turn to a clipper system set to travel through
the southern great lakes and northern ohio river valley tomorrow
morning, bringing widespread light snow. initially, weak system
relative isentropic ascent will commence in the mid- levels early
sunday morning in anticipation of the approaching system which will
bring the chance for flurries or very light snow for portions of the
cwa. moist isentropic ascent is then fortified through the southern
half of the cwa favored from 700mb through 500mb which will expand
accumulation snowfall chances from south to north while concurrently
pva increases through the northern-third of the forecast area,
filling in snow chances through the north. this combination will
bring widespread light snow across se mi with snowfall accumulations
ranging between a half- inch to two inches by the afternoon. two
caveats for higher end snowfall totals will revolve around any
mesoscale convergent signatures and/or lake enhancement from lake
huron.

a subset of hi-res modeling picks up on a brief period of
frontogenetic forcing favored in the late morning to early afternoon
hours that can bring some highly localized enhanced snowfall rates
which would be capable of producing a narrow band with totals
approaching 3 inches. predictability of this materializing and
potential location of event is low at this time but the greater
potential will be aligned with the better moisture convergence from
i-94 south. lake convergence over lake huron also brings some low end
chances for totals of 2-3" within the northern thumb, particularly
huron county. lake convergent bands are expected to stay offshore,
but some solutions do briefly clip the northern thumb.

a polar high pressure will then fill in late sunday into monday.
clearing skies, light winds, and snow cover will bring about efficient
radiational cooling monday morning, dropping lows into the single
digits and wind chills to or below zero. little relief on monday as
highs stay capped in the 20s and wind chills returning to the single
digits tuesday morning. the middle of the week will remain active as
a series of clipper systems again target se mi. the first will arrive
tuesday morning, bringing renewed chances for light snow
accumulation. the second clipper system quickly follows up late
tuesday into wednesday morning. ensembles highlight pretty strong
convergence regarding track and intensity of this second clipper
system, with the track moving over michigan with a strong and quick
upper-level wave accompanying the system. this will bring the likely
chance for widespread wintry precipitation, but favored p-type will
subject the degree or warm air advection downstream of the low. a
wintry mix of rain/snow is favored at this time given modeled thermal
profiles.

marine...

winds will slowly decrease today and veer to the west-northwest as a
cold front washes out over the region. this will lead to light winds
tonight, 15 knots or less. yet another cold front and surge of cold
air to move in during sunday, as low pressure tracks through the
northern ohio valley. widespread light snow around sunday morning
trending toward more localized snow squalls late sunday as 850 mb
temps lower into the negative mid teens. northwest winds gusting
between 25-30 knots appear likely late in the day. however, winds
then look to veer to the north-northeast fairly quickly and weaken
sunday night as high pressure quickly builds in for monday morning.
none-the-less, large waves of 6+ feet will build over the southern
lake huron. some of these larger waves look to clip the nearshore
waters of lake huron as winds veer around, and expect another round
of small craft advisories to be issued.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...am
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.