Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 132340
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 pm edt fri mar 13 2026

.what has changed...
the high wind warning remains in effect for most of our cwa
until 8 pm this evening and until 2 am edt saturday for
cuyahoga, geauga, lake, ashtabula counties in ne oh, and erie
and crawford counties in nw pa. a blowing dust-related special
weather statement has been issued for marion, crawford, huron,
and erie counties, oh and points west. this statement is in
effect until 6 pm today. recent significant drying of soil as
drought persists and the strong, gusty winds will result in
plumes of blowing dust through this early evening.

&&

.key messages...
1.) a potent clipper will continue to affect our region through
tonight. multiple impacts are expected, including strong and
gusty winds that will continue to result in tree and power line
damage through at least this early evening.

2.) another robust low pressure system will impact the region
on saturday night through monday, bringing widespread precip and
another round of strong winds.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:
aloft, a shortwave trough and embedded mid/upper-level low
wobble e`ward from near lake superior to southern qc through
daybreak saturday. at the surface, the potent low wobbles
ene`ward from northern lower mi to southern qc and weakens
slowly as it becomes vertically-stacked with the mid/upper-level
low. the trailing cold front will sweep e`ward from nw oh
through nw pa during this early afternoon through very early
evening and should exit our cwa around 5 pm this evening. low-
level convergence/moist ascent along the front will continue to
release weak boundary layer instability and trigger a line of
multicell showers amidst moderate to strong effective bulk
shear, including 925 mb flow near 50 to 60 knots. these showers
should be efficient at transporting stronger flow just aloft
down to the surface and contribute to damaging wind gusts that
have already impacted our region. behind the front, a ridge at
the surface and aloft builds from the north-central united
states through daybreak saturday. stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge will promote primarily dry weather behind
the front. strong low-level caa behind the front will contribute
to lows reaching the mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak
saturday.

winds:
diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into the
aforementioned strong flow just aloft through this early
evening, quick mslp rises immediately behind the front, and
steep low-level lapse rates and deep mechanical mixing of the
boundary layer amidst low-level winds/caa increasing with height
for several hours behind the front will allow sw`erly to w`erly
surface winds to gust up to 60 to 70 mph through this early
evening. sustained surface winds and gusts will then ease
gradually the rest of this evening through daybreak saturday as
925 mb flow eases in a generally southwest to northeast manner
and the horizontal pressure gradient at the surface and aloft
relaxes.

lake-enhanced/effect precip:
behind the cold front, a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level
atmospheric column, wsw`erly to wnw`erly mean low-level flow
over and downwind of ~3c lake erie, weak lake-induced cape
(licape), and the seeder-feeder process should permit periods of
lake-enhanced precip to impact the primary snowbelt as 850 mb
temperatures plummet to -5c or colder most of this evening. this
lake-enhanced precip should then transition to pure lake-effect
precip by early saturday morning as 850 mb temperatures drop
further to near -10c and mid-level moisture plummets, allowing
the seeder-feeder process to end. the lake-effect precip should
end by daybreak saturday as continued dry air advection at the
surface and aloft, and stabilizing subsidence accompanying the
building ridge, cause licape to wane. precip over and downwind
of lake erie should begin as a rain/snow mix early this evening
and then change quickly to snow due to the wet-bulb effect and
caa at the surface and aloft. hi-res model soundings indicate
the snow should be heavy at times this evening, when strong,
maximized ascent should become collocated with a cloudy dgz
about 1 km deep. snow accumulations of less than one inch are
expected in the ne oh portion of the primary snow belt. total
snow accumulations of a coating to 3" are expected in nw pa.
the greatest of these snow totals are forecast in the higher
terrain of southern erie and northern crawford counties.

key message #2:
saturday, night, a ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward
as a trough at the surface and aloft approaches from the
northern great plains and vicinity and the attendant surface
warm front approaches from the tn and oh valleys. moist
isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the front should
trigger a rain/snow mix, but mainly in the form of snow and
especially over/near lake erie, where tropospheric moisture
should be greater and deeper. snow accumulations should be less
than one inch and lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s to mid
30`s around midnight sunday before temperatures moderate toward
daybreak as low-level waa strengthens. on sunday, the trough
aloft should deepen as it approaches from the northern and
central great plains. the surface warm front will sweep n`ward
through our region and be followed by a weak surface ridge
nosing from the southeast and south as a surface low deepens and
wobbles from the mid-mo valley toward the southwestern great
lakes. current odds favor dry weather, but a few rain showers
may accompany low-level convergence/ascent along the surface
warm front. strong low- level waa and peaks of sunshine should
allow our highs to reach abnormally-warm values of the mid 50`s
to lower 70`s.

during sunday night through monday night, the deepening trough
aloft should overspread our region from the west. strengthening
divergence aloft and attendant mslp falls downstream of the
mid/upper-level trough axis should allow the surface low to
deepen further as it tracks ne`ward from the southwestern great
lakes to southern qc through early monday evening and then
deepen further as the low wobbles nne`ward toward northern qc
monday night. the trailing and strong cold front should sweep
e`ward through our cwa on monday and be followed by a strong
surface ridge building from the west. periods of rain and
scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold
front due to pre-front moist isentropic ascent and low- level
convergence/moist ascent along the front releasing at least weak
cape, including elevated cape. moderate to strong effective
bulk shear may allow some storms to be strong to severe (e.g.
see spc`s latest convective weather outlook). abnormally-warm
temperatures ahead of the cold front will tumble quickly behind
the front and be followed by lows potentially as cold as the mid
teens to mid 20`s around daybreak tuesday. thus, any lingering
rain associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front may
change to snow before the front-related precip ends. a sw`erly
to nw`erly mean low-level flow of very cold/sufficiently-moist
air may allow lake erie lake-effect snow, heavy at times, to
occur over/downwind of the ~3c lake later monday into tuesday.
something we will continue to monitor.

note: the deepening low pressure system is expected to be
accompanied by a potent and strengthening wind field at the
surface and aloft. advisory or warning-criteria regional surface
wind gusts should occur later sunday into monday due to diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger
flow aloft, quick mslp rises behind the strong cold front, and
deep mechanical mixing of the post-cold front boundary layer
amidst steep low-level lapse rates and low-level winds/caa
increasing with height.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
winds to gradually ease into the overnight, but high gusts
35-50kts still possible through around 03z saturday. outside of
the winds, tafs are vfr except for eri with the only cloud
bases lower than fl100 at cak, cle, and yng. for eri, mvfr
possible as snow showers develop later tonight. high pressure
moves in for saturday with more tranquil weather in place for
the last 9 hours of the taf, again, minus the light snow showers
early on for eri.

outlook...non-vfr likely to return in rain/snow showers
saturday night into sunday. non-vfr may linger in scattered
rain/snow showers on monday with lake effect snow possible
monday night into tuesday.

&&

.marine...
a strong low pressure system will exit the region and extend a cold
front across the lake. winds with this system are overperforming
with solid gales of 40 to 45 kts and storm force wind gusts of 50 to
60 kts. winds will diminish this evening with gale force winds
ending on saturday morning. there could be a need for a short
extension of the current gale warning before being replaced by a
small craft advisory tonight. low water conditions will persist over
western lake erie through tonight with the strong winds.

high pressure will briefly build into the region on saturday and
allow for a short period of light winds. a low pressure system
developing over the central united states will extend a warm front
toward the lake on saturday and increase easterly flow on saturday
night. the front will cross the lake on sunday and strong southerly
flow will overtake the lake, potentially to gale force winds by
sunday night. the low pressure system will cross the great lakes on
monday and extend a cold front across the lake on monday. winds will
shift to the west and increase further, allowing for a period of
higher confidence gales on monday. high pressure will be sluggish to
build in on tuesday and elevated westerly flow will continue through
tuesday night, likely continuing any headline need.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
high wind warning until 2 am edt saturday for ohz011>014-089.
pa...high wind warning until 2 am edt saturday for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lez142>149-162>169.
low water advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lez142>144-
162>164.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...26
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
751 pm edt fri mar 13 2026

.key messages...

- a strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms late
sunday into sunday night. severe weather is possible sunday
afternoon into sunday night.

- accumulating snow is expected monday into tuesday, mainly in
northwest in and southwest mi.

- temperatures mid 60s to near 70 on sunday will crash into the
20s by monday. tuesday morning wind chills near zero.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 126 pm edt fri mar 13 2026

the 990 mb low pressure system traversing across the great lakes
today departs tonight taking the strong 60-65 kt low level jet with
it. given the strong pressure gradient and mixing up to around 850-
800 mb, at least wind advisory winds of around 45 mph or greater
lasts until at least 00z and quite possibly for 1 to 4 more hours in
nw oh.

this transitions to a dry day for saturday as mid level heights rise
and surface high pressure passes through the area. with the cold
front that went through this morning, expect high temperatures to be
around 5 degrees cooler for saturday with 40s across most of the
board.

as we head towards sunday, a pacific wave deepens over the rockies
and a phased upper jet and pv hook look continues to help deepen the
low pressure system as it moves through the area quickly sunday
evening/night. the theta-e plume arrives around 12z sunday with
around 50 degree dew points at the surface. given the arrival of the
plume, there could be some clouds around and so we`ll have to see
what state instability is in for a severe weather chance during the
afternoon and evening. a strong eml gets in here during the late
night to early morning hours with around 8c/km mid level lapse
rates. there appears to be some weakening of it by the time we get
to the afternoon with more like 6.5 to 7.5 c/km mid level lapse
rates, but that`s adequate enough to still causing severe hail as a
severe outcome if any isolated cells are able to form out in front
of the cold front. isolated cells are not a given, though, because
it appears that the warm sector is rather dry and could be capped
until the cold front arrives. if we are able to remain dry and mixed
in the warm sector, we could see 35 to 45 mph gusts there as well.
effective shear appears rather borderline with pockets of 30 kts
around the area, but the effective helicity is also one that could
contribute to embedded vorticies in what appears to be a squall
line or qlcs type of event. this would allow damaging winds and
a tornado to also be a threat along that line. storm motion
will probably factor into the damaging wind potential given that
we`ll start with 40 to 50 kt motions and this ramps up to 60 to
90 motions (using bunkers motions) by the end of the event.
given the uncertainty about if isolated cells can form in front
of the line the onset time is in question. at this point, the
cold front moves through the area by around 9z.

cold air is able to come in on the back side of this vigorous low
pressure system to the tune of -15 to -20c at 850 mb. wind
chills fall to the single digits monday night and early tuesday.
there could be some light snow associated with the upper low or
on the backside of the front if the cold air arrives quickly
enough, but it`s more the lake effect snow aspect that will
likely bring accumulating snow to the area. with the lake
temperature being around 40f or so, this should allow 20 to 25
degree delta t values starting around 12z monday and continuing
through 00z tuesday evening. inversion heights may only be
around 3 kft high monday morning, but with the arrival of the
cold air, will rise to between 6 to 8 kft by around midday
monday, which indicates high end snowfall. these inversion
heights begin to come back down midday tuesday and tuesday
afternoon. the initial environment has the cloud layer rising
into the dgz which is good for stronger slrs. however, we begin
to lose low level moisture monday afternoon and we get very cold
monday night so that will make slrs weaker for snow. still some
time for changes in the major pieces here, but the ecmwf, gfs,
and nbm all indicate that at least advisory snowfall is possible
during this period. for our grid population period through 00z
mon evening, i have 2 to 5 inches of snow, highest closer to the
lake. both monday and tuesday appear to have gusty winds as
well.

warm advection is quick to return tuesday night and there could be
some combination of rain and snow with this. often times this kind
of set up leads to an onset snow to rain transition. temperatures
continue to trend warmer and allow more 50 degree highs to return by
the end of the week. models also try to bring another trough in by
the of the work week, but they vary on how deep or transient the
trough is meaning the system could also pass by to our north.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 746 pm edt fri mar 13 2026

synoptic northwesterly winds have been gradually weakening over
the last several hours and will continue to do so this evening.
a few remaining gusts up to 35 to 45 mph will be possible
through 04z for both taf sites. otherwise, vfr conditions will
prevail through the remainder of this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1138 pm edt fri mar 13 2026

.key messages...

- another round of light accumulating snowfall arrives saturday
night (mainly north of m-59), changing over to rain showers sunday
morning with a brief period of sleet or light icing possible during
the transition.

- embedded strong thunderstorms possible sunday evening/night.

- windy and turning colder on monday with wind gusts of 45+ mph
possible.

- wind chills down around zero tuesday morning with highs only
reaching into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.aviation...

the departure of the compact surface low to the east overnight will
lead to a steady drop in wind speeds/gusts heading into the early
hours saturday. low level cyclonic flow will relax during the
overnight while continued dry air filters into the area from the
west. these factors support a light night clearing trend. high
pressure will track across lower mi on saturday, leading to clear
skies and light winds from late morning into the afternoon.

for dtw...westerly wind speeds/gusts will undergo a decreasing trend
during the first two to hour hours of the taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in crosswind thresholds being exceeded overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 830 pm edt fri mar 13 2026

update...

the 00z dtx sounding has indicated that a little bit of low level
drying has boosted mixing depths and increased the sub cloud layer
lapse rates. the result has been a secondary uptick in wind gusts
this evening. this includes the northern portions of the forecast
area, where gusts over the last hour have been higher than they have
all day. it is also noted that convective downbursts from some of the
showers have resulted in localized strong wind gusts (66 mph at
lansing at the 8 pm ob). mixing depth and low level wind fields will
drop during the night. in light of the 00z dtx sounding and current
observations, the high wind warning has been extended to midnight.

prev discussion...
issued at 323 pm edt fri mar 13 2026

discussion...

strong showers along the cold front passage earlier in the day
allowed winds to gust 60-70 mph across washtenaw/wayne/lenawee/monroe
counties, as temps reached into the upper 40s to lower 50s, allowing
for better mixing. tight pressure gradient and solid low level cold
advection will keep strong westerly winds going into the evening
hours, and no changes to ongoing high wind warning. atlhough, the
northern third of the cwa may come up short for wind gust criteria.
closer proximity to the low and enough cold air moving back in this
evening to support snow showers across the thumb region before
ending. accumulations around 1 inch seem reasonable, otherwise
minor/if any accumulations elsewhere.

shortwave ridging aloft and at the surface in place for saturday
will allow for a much quieter weather day. the center of the high
(1028-1030 mb) will quickly be moving east saturday evening,
reaching southern new york around midnight. thus, the marginal cold
airmass in place over southern lower michigan will not be able to
hold for an extended period. strong pacific shortwave/jet diving
southeast through the rockies and reaching the southern plains
sunday morning, as northern stream trough over central canada begins
to phase. stout warm advection pattern and 700 mb fgen sunday night
looks to support a period of snow, with the main focus along and
north of i-69. bulk of current euro ensembles suggest 1-4 inch type
snowfall before sufficient warming and the forcing lifts north.

further warming and moisture advection (pw values aoa 1 inch)
progged to stream through the plains and move into lower michigan on
sunday. much of the cwa should be able to get into the dry warm
sector. the issue for sunday night - monday is the low pressure
system is undergoing rapid intensification, and may hover over the
western great lakes, delaying the rain shield and possible
convection with the cold front. exact timing and positioning will be
critical, as we do get some modest instability developing with
strong wind fields/low level jet (50-60 knots). still, right now the
favored time looks to be late sunday night, which minimizes the
severe threat. post frontal cold advection and steepening low level
lapse rates on monday will once again support windy conditions,
but bulk of euro ensembles only indicated low end wind advisory as
this point. good late march arctic shot of cold behind this low will
likely hold maxes in the mid to upper 20s on tuesday as 850 mb temps
reside in the negative mid to upper teens. warm advection pattern
quickly kicks back in for the mid week period however.

marine...

a unseasonably strong low pressure system now over northern lower
michigan will continue to progress into central michigan tonight
before exiting into southern quebec early tomorrow morning. the
strongest gusts of this event has been and will continue to be south
of the lie, tied to where a strong low-level jet resides in
conjunction with periodic rain showers which have brought some of
these stronger wind gusts to high-end gales. high-end gales with an
isolated gust to storm force will remain possible across lake erie
and lake st. clair through tonight until low pressure departs. will
hold off on any upgrade to a storm warning for these locations given
the brevity of the storm force gales, however, will continue to
monitor surface observations for any potential regarding a short-
fused upgrade. a lull in gales is expected directly underneath the
center of the low across central lake huron, before gales fill back
in as cold air advection increases in the wake of the low. a gale
warning remains in effect for all locations until tomorrow morning.

a ridge of high pressure fills in over the great lakes saturday,
reducing wind speeds and maintaining a brief period of lighter
winds. this will be short-lived as a second anomalously strong low
pressure system moves from the southern great lakes into lake huron
sunday into monday. this initially brings a surge of warm air on
sunday which will produce stable over-lake conditions, which will
act to help keep wind gusts below gales at least for the southern
great lakes. as this low departs, arctic air fills in, which will
mix out the marine layer, likely producing gust to to gales.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...high wind warning until midnight edt tonight for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

low water advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
update.......sc
discussion...sf
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.