Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
268
fxus61 kcle 311131
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 am edt sat oct 31 2026

.what has changed...
there were no changes needed with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue to influence the area into the start
of next week allowing for quiet weather and gradually warming
temperatures.

2) periodic showers are possible early next week before becoming
more widespread mid to late week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure has settled over the region and will continue to
influence the are into early next week as it slowly drift east.
temperatures through the period will start in the low to mid
60s today before gradually climbing into the 70s by tuesday.
overnight lows will follow a similar trend with lows tonight
falling into the mid 40s to low 50s before becoming more mild by
tuesday night in the mid to upper 50s. as this high drifts east
on monday and winds become more southerly, the increase in waa
couples with additional moisture nudging north will present the
potential for isolated, light showers monday and tuesday but not
expecting anything widespread. as a result, the majority of the
area will continue to remain dry through tuesday.

key message 2...
the dominant ridge that has influenced the area for the past
couple weeks will finally begin to breakdown as a deepening
upper level trough pushes south across the central us. this
trough will progress eastward, ultimately moving an associated
low pressure system into the region on wednesday and thursday.
this system will likely bring widespread precipitation and end
the prolonged period of no rainfall throughout the month of
october. there remains low confidence in the exact timing as it
diverges amongst models and model runs, but given the agreed
upon robustness of the system, confidence is increasing that
much of the area will see rainfall midweek. temperatures through
the end of the week will remain above normal.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
no major changes to the tafs with the 12z package. mid-level
ceilings continue to enter from the west and will spread over
all of the terminals by this afternoon. winds will be generally
light and out of the east to southeast. winds at keri may be
more northerly this afternoon with high pressure moving through
nw pa.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain on tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the area will allow for calm marine
conditions through monday. east/southeast winds around 10 knots
will allow for waves of 2 feet or less along the southern
lakeshore through monday. as the high pressure system shifts
east towards the mid-atlantic coast on tuesday, winds will gain
a more south-southwesterly flow and increase to 10-15 knots. by
midweek, a robust low pressure system is expected to push into
the area, ultimately bringing a cold front east across lake erie
on wednesday or thursday. confidence in timing remains low, but
given the increased gradient across the area with its passage,
winds will likely increase initially from the south to 15-25
knots before shifting to west-northwesterly behind the boundary.
there may be a marine headline needed for this system, but given
the lack of model consistency there is low confidence on when
that would be needed.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 311017
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
617 am edt sat oct 31 2026

.key messages...

- light rain showers this morning gradually move out by the mid
afternoon.

- very warm on tuesday followed by increasing rain chances
through wednesday (60% chance).

&&

.discussion...
issued at 337 am edt sat oct 31 2026

an area of showers is underway spanning from central ia through
extreme western indiana. mesoanalysis shows warm air advection aloft
along with subtle near-surface convergence, and even modest elevated
instability (through central il, fading well before the in line).
this waa and surface convergence lift north-northeast through early
this afternoon. despite an 8,000 foot dry layer and a 10-degree dew
point depression, light rain is underway at monticello, in. trends
lead me to believe these showers will persist through at least the
morning hours. the centroid of high pressure is analyzed over the
greater lansing area, suggesting the far northeast reaches of these
showers will be limited, battling additional dry air and subsidence.
will carry on with the continued halloween message of isoalted
showers, especially in the morning. it does appear showers will
move out in time for trick-or- treat hours. cloudy and somewhat
cool with highs just beyond 60 degrees.

murky, spotty, and weakly forced shower chances linger through at
least monday as high pressure gradually gives way to ridging ahead
of deepening low over the central us. this results in periods of low-
confidence 20-30% pops. a weak shortwave moving through the oh river
valley presents a 20% chance of showers for far southern reaches of
the forecast area sunday afternoon, with perhaps a better moisture
stream arriving overnight.

the primary item of interest in the extended forecast is the mid-
latitude cyclone moving through midweek. very warm on tuesday (near-
record highs) ahead of this low as the jet stream becomes highly
amplified over the midwest. breezy with southerly wind gusts of 20-
25 mph. the occluding low over far northern lower michigan looks to
delay our best rain chance until late tuesday night and wednesday.
how cyclogenesis evolves over the mid-mississippi thereafter
dictates how much our rain will see, or whether the cold/occluded
frontal passage is our only chance for rain. behind the low, still
mild for early november with highs in the 60s and lows in the
40s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 612 am edt sat oct 31 2026

latest tafs account for an area of warm advection rain that has
persisted all morning. upstream observations strongly support
this activity is vfr in nature. the end time offers medium
confidence as model guidance is gradually acknowledging these
showers. cannot completely rule out more showers early sunday
morning with a shortwave passing through the ohio valley.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 311022
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
622 am edt sat oct 31 2026

.key messages...

- cool but still slightly above normal temperatures again today.

- low chance for a isolated light showers late today towards central
mi.

- mild early to middle next week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr conditions through the period as a thick canopy of mid level
cloud based between 7 and 10k ft maintains residence. a light
variable early day wind will emerge from the southeast this
afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorms are not forecast through the taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 335 am edt sat oct 31 2026

discussion...

center of high pressure shifts into the eastern great
lakes/appalachians today allowing light southeasterly winds to
develop locally. while this doesn`t draw in much warm advection, it
does shunt the coolest air out of the region supporting more uniform
upper 50-lower 60 highs across se mi. cloudier skies today are the
result of a warm front lifting out of the mississippi valley into
great lakes/upper midwest. primary theta-e axis is directed west of
lake michigan leading to the majority of associated showers holding
well to our west. that said, lower mi holds on the periphery of
elevated moisture transport this afternoon into tonight allowing
isolated to scattered light showers to work across the state. these
will struggle to survive into our cwa owing to the dry resident
airmass with main chances (and low end at that) confined towards the
central portion of the state and near the ohio border. any shower
that does get into the area will be brief and light.

broad pacific northwest trough slowly traverses the central conus
next week eventually bringing a return to active weather locally.
timing details remain nebulous given a good spread in the speed of
the longwave and if a northern stream canadian shortwave can phase
with the trough. while rain could reach the southern lower mi as
early as monday, the mid week period remains the favored window for
wider spread showers with milder/humid air (by fall standards) in
place. the attendant cold front eventually crosses latter half of
the week bringing at least a brief return towards more average late
fall temperatures though still likely several degrees above normal.

marine...

high pressure builds in this morning which will maintain light winds
through the weekend. high pressure exits into new england late
tonight, reinforcing south flow into early next week. mostly dry
conditions are expected, outside of isolated spotty showers. more
active conditions then enter late monday and through the midweek
period as low pressure develops over the plains. southerly winds
increase tuesday and wednesday as low pressure tracks towards the
northern great lakes. rain showers and a low chance for a
thunderstorm also become more likely as the low approaches.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...kdk
marine.......am

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.