Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
602
fxus61 kcle 241958
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
258 pm est mon nov 24 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure exits east tonight as low pressure pushes into the
region and impacts the area on tuesday. a stronger low will drag a
cold front east across the region on wednesday as it moves east
across the great lakes region. a trough will linger across the
great lakes through friday with high pressure returning on
saturday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday night/...
dry conditions will come to an end tonight as high pressure exits to
the east ahead of an approaching low pressure system. overnight lows
will settle in the mid 30s to low 40s tonight. the low pressure
system and its associated upper level shortwave will bring rain
showers to the region overnight tonight. showers will increase in
coverage during the day on tuesday with rainfall amounts generally
ranging between 0.25-0.50 inches, locally higher amounts of 0.50-
0.75 inches possible south of us-30. it will remain warm on tuesday
with highs in the low to mid 50s and overnight lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s on tuesday night.

&&

.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
the short term period will be driven by a potent and deepening low
pressure system traversing across the great lakes region. at the
surface, low pressure will drag a strong cold front east across the
forecast area through the day on wednesday with lingering troughing
persisting behind the system through the end of the short term and
into the long term. multiple hazards at play with this system
including synoptic rain transitioning to snow, lake effect
snowfall, and gusty winds.

synoptic rain/snow:

precipitation will remain as rain early in the day before
transitioning to a rain/snow mix wednesday afternoon and eventually
all snow by wednesday evening. overall snowfall amounts through
wednesday night of an inch or less will remain focused to the
primary snowbelt. temperatures are expected to rapidly drop behind
the cold front which may lead to icy conditions on roadways.

lake effect snow:

snowfall will transition to lake effect snow wednesday evening into
thursday as 850mb temperatures fall into the -8 to -10c range. mean
layer flow will begin as primarily southwesterly to westerly across
lake erie which should keep lake effect snow primarily offshore but
may begin impacting extreme northern erie county pa. flow will then
turn more westerly to northwesterly by thursday morning as the upper
trough axis pushes east which will allow for lake effect snow to
shift inland across the primary snowbelt. given increasing
confidence in 6 inches or more so snow have hoisted a winter storm
watch for erie and crawford counties in pennsylvania from late
wednesday night through friday evening. will continue to monitor
trends across northeast ohio for future headline issuance. current
thinking is that heaviest snowfall will likely occur thursday
afternoon and early evening with snowfall rates up to an inch per
hour. travel could be very difficult. the hazardous conditions may
impact busy thanksgiving holiday travel.

gusty winds:

by wednesday morning and afternoon southwesterly winds and gusts
will increase areawide behind the cold front in the caa regime.
highest wind gusts to 40-45 mph will remain confined along the i-75
corridor wednesday morning and early afternoon before elevated winds
and gusts spread east across the entire forecast area by wednesday
evening. locally higher wind gusts nearing 50 mph will be confined
to the lakeshore wednesday night and continue on thursday. will keep
monitoring forecast trends as wind gusts will near wind advisory
criteria along the lakeshore. gusty winds may cause blowing and
drifting snow adding to the hazardous travel conditions during the
thanksgiving holiday.

temperatures:

behind the cold front overnight lows wednesday night and thursday
night will drop to the mid 20s. elevated wind speeds will also lead
to minimum wind chill values to bottom out in the 10s thursday
morning. colder during the day on thursday with highs in the low to
mid 30s areawide.

&&

.long term /friday through monday/...
surface troughing will linger across the eastern great lakes on
friday which will keep some lake effect snow in place through friday
evening. drier air and high pressure will enter from the west friday
night allowing for remaining lake effect snow to gradually diminish
and bring a brief window of dry conditions to the region. dry weather
will be short lived as another low pressure system approaches the
ohio valley from the west saturday into sunday. there remains some
differences in long range model guidance in the arrival timing of
this system, but for now have chance pops in the forecast to end the
long term period. highs remain in the low to mid 30s friday and
saturday before returning into the low to mid 40s by sunday and
monday.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
vfr conditions with upper-level cirrus are observed areawide and
should continue through at least least the first half of
tonight. should see clouds thicken/lower and rain overspread the
area as conditions deteriorate early tuesday morning and
through the day. ceilings and visibilities lower to mvfr from
south to north quickly followed by ifr conditions through
mainly the daylight hours. light south winds of 10 knots or less
are generally expected, though stronger winds with downsloping
are expected near keri as gusts up to 20 knots occur tuesday
afternoon.

outlook...rain and low ceilings/visibilities will persist
areawide through wednesday. lake effect snow wednesday evening
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania, persisting
through friday evening. wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots will be
possible wednesday, with wind gusts up to 40 knots near the lake
erie shoreline wednesday through thursday night.

&&

.marine...
high pressure departs to the east today and tonight with southerly
flow to 10-15 knots on tuesday. a deepening low pressure moves into
the northern great lakes region, with a strong cold front quickly
moving east across lake erie wednesday morning. southwest to west
winds will rapidly increase to 30-40 knots with gusts up to 45 knots
on wednesday behind the frontal passage and persisting through
thursday night. waves as high as 8-12 feet may be possible
especially east of the islands. a broad gale watch will continue
for this period. low water is expected over the western basin at
times through this same time period. the critical mark is 5 inches
below the low water datum, and latest model projections have a 70%
chance of the water level at toledo reaching 24 inches below low
water datum.

wind speeds gradually diminish below gale-force winds thursday night
into friday morning as winds become northwesterly. wind speeds
continue to gradually diminish with conditions improving to less
than 15 knots and 4 feet by saturday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter storm watch from late wednesday night through friday
evening for paz001>003.
marine...gale watch from wednesday morning through late thursday night
for lez142>149-162>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...13
near term...13
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
440
fxus63 kiwx 241938
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
238 pm est mon nov 24 2025

.key messages...

- remaining seasonably mild into tuesday with a period of light
rain late tonight into tuesday morning.

- a period of showers is possible tuesday night along a strong
cold front. gusty winds are expected wednesday into thursday
behind the front.

- lake effect snow showers are expected, mainly north of us 6
wednesday afternoon into thursday evening. some light
accumulations are possible.

- chances for additional precipitation, most likely in the form
of snow, arrives saturday and may linger into sunday. it
remains to early for specific impacts or accumulations.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 238 pm est mon nov 24 2025

a lot of moving pieces exist for the forecast period, with the
greatest impacts expected to occur during the thanksgiving weekend
when travel is at its peak. we will do our best to summarize the
current thinking, but if you are travelling this weekend, remain
vigilant in monitoring current and forecast weather conditions.

through tuesday...

the well advertised active pattern will commence today as a
weakening upper level wave track from central ks to western il by
12z tue. as mentioned in the morning update, a combination of a
somewhat slower arrival and delay in stronger lift is expected which
will impact precip chances into tuesday morning. at least weak
isentropic lift will commence in sw areas between 0z and 6z tue to
warrant some low chc pops. as the llj and aformentioned wave
approach, models suggest a larger area of light rain expanding
across the area between 9z and 15z before limited subsidence works
in behind the wave. it is possible that prior to the main area of
rain and potentially during the rain event itself that we end up
with more drizzle than rain, but opted to keep it simple for now and
leave light rain. the other element to monitor prior to the deeper
moisture passage is a fog potential, as was noted across much of
southern/central il/in this morning. unsure on coverage and impacts
so introduced patchy fog for now 6z to 15z tue.

tuesday night into thursday night...

the area will see a brief lull in precip chances as we await the
arrival of a stronger northern stream wave that will usher in much
colder air which lingers into the upcoming holiday weekend.
cyclogenesis will take place tuesday over wi as the deepening system
works east across the up of mi into wednesday. a cold front will
extend from the low, entering western parts of the forecast area
after 6z wed and quickly exiting by 12z wed. a narrow band of
showers is likely to accompany the front, although current pops may
be overdone with maybe a few hour period of precip chances. the much
larger focus will be on the falling temperatures and strong winds.
strong caa quickly commences behind the front (850 mb temps at 9z
wed ranging from 0 to 4c falling to -7 to -11 c by 21z wed). strong
mixing of low level wind fields will result in sustained winds of at
least 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 35 mph. some potential for even
higher gusts during the afternoon and evening hours with soundings
indicating 35 to 40 kt (40 to 45 mph) gusts in some areas. highs
wednesday will occur early with temperatures falling to near
freezing by later afternoon and into the 20s overnight. limited
"warming" will take place on thanksgiving day with highs creeping
back just above freezing and wind chills in the teens to around 20.

a west to northwest flow will setup across southern lk mi in the
wake of the front with inversion heights climbing above 10,000 ft,
lake to 850 mb delta ts of around 20c, and negative 0-2 km lapse
rates. lake effect clouds and snow showers should quickly commence,
favoring our lower mi counties, especially wed afternoon into thur
morning. that being said, this does not appear to be a major event
as dgz will be located above the best lift and strong low level
winds around 35 kts will likely result in a more cellular setup. that
doesn`t mean there won`t be some reduced visibility potential in the
snow showers, but overall amounts should be on the lighter side.

friday through monday...

some lake effect is likely to linger into friday, possibly briefly
shifting into nw indiana for a period until the low level ridge axis
finally passes through friday night in response to the next area of
low pressure taking shape. while models remain in agreement on a
baroclinic zone establishing itself across the area over the
weekend, timing and ptype issues persist, leading to an uncertain
forecast for those likely travelling home from the holiday weekend.
ec/gem brings in precipitation during the day sat with temp profiles
cold enough for all snow through sat night before shifting east. gfs
delays precip till at least sunday and maybe not till monday, which
would suggest more of a mix to possibly all rain. the current
forecast leans towards the faster solution at this time with likely
pops sat/sat night. as would be expected this far out, confidence in
finer details is not overly high but worth watching.


&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1249 pm est mon nov 24 2025

an area of low pressure over the central plains this aftn will
shift east into the ohio valley by the end of the fcst period.
lowering cigs is expected through the forecast period with
chances for light rain/showers beginning overnight after 02z
for ksbn and 04z for kfwa. mvfr cigs during predominant periods
of light rain expected by 10z 06z tue will lower to ifr around
12z. sse winds 10 knots or less are expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale watch from late tuesday night through thursday evening
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...frazier

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
985
fxus63 kdtx 241627
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1127 am est mon nov 24 2025

.key messages...

- above normal temperatures highlight the early week period along
with rain showers that move in early tuesday and continue through
tuesday night.

- passage of a strong cold front is on schedule for wednesday
morning. westerly wind gusts could reach 45 mph in the afternoon.

- lake effect snow showers ramp up wednesday night through
thanksgiving day and linger into friday.

&&

.aviation...

south flow is developing in the wake of departing high pressure. the
gradient flow and limiting mixing depths will keep sustained winds
around 10 knots. ample low level dry air in place will keep skies
clear below 12k feet through the afternoon. deep layer moisture
advection will commence tonight, resulting in lowering cloud bases
during the overnight. there is reasonable model agreement in showing
a surge in low level moisture in the 12z to 15z time frame, resulting
in a rapid drop in ceilings to ifr (with some lifr) in light rain.

for dtw...a rapid drop in ceilings is forecast between 12z and 14z
tues morning as light rain overspreads the airspace.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tuesday morning and
afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 410 am est mon nov 24 2025

discussion...

se mi is between northern ontario low pressure and mid atlantic high
pressure today, a setup that maintains dry and mild weather through
this evening. steady south wind between these systems is directed
into the great lakes which combines with full morning sun to support
another round of above normal temperatures. guidance highs in the
lower to mid 50s are easily reachable with the chance for a few
upper 50s limited by thickening high clouds this afternoon.

the afternoon high clouds are a precursor to the next precipitation
event that the resident warm air mass ensures will be all rain.
onset timing is nudged a few hours later into tuesday morning as
model trends show less aggressive northward moisture transport ahead
of the southern plains system as it moves into the ohio valley.
there is agreement across the new 00z deterministic models on a
solution that kicks the southern plains system more quickly eastward
resulting in a qpf maximum farther south along the ohio valley
compared to the last few forecast cycles. the northern flank of the
pattern still brings generous coverage of showers into se mi but
with rainfall amounts less than 0.25 inch through the day.

the faster eastward pace of the southern plains to ohio valley wave
leads to lower coverage of showers or just patchy drizzle tuesday
night as mild air remains in place between systems. the focus then
quickly shifts to the northern stream low pressure system that is on
schedule to strengthen considerably in the upper midwest and
northern great lakes by wednesday morning. deterministic model
dprog/dt and ensemble mean/spread continue to offer solid confidence
in predictability of the system. there is perhaps just a minor
southward position adjustment on the surface low center while the
timing of the cold front remains nearly through se mi by 12z
wednesday. after a broken line of showers along the front, the
system produces a textbook dry slot and low level thermal trough
across lower mi that keeps advisory level wind gusts the primary
concern during wednesday. strong downward momentum transport is set
to occur within the increasing wind field as the system deepens
during the day, highlighted by sref mean model soundings that show
mid 40 knot wind available within the mixed layer wednesday
afternoon.

despite the strong westerly wind, temperatures are projected to take
until closer to sunset wednesday evening to drop enough for an all
snow sounding. lake effect then continues to ramp up wednesday night
with potential to affect thanksgiving day travel as the wind field
remains easily strong enough for snow showers to make in from the
west and north. the usual bulk parameters governing moisture,
convective depth, and low level convergence will continue to be
monitored for favored se mi coverage areas in upcoming forecasts.

marine...

light to moderate southerly return flow today, allowing for milder
air to move into the region. wind gusts of 25 knots likely over
central lake huron.

good surge of moisture and low pressure tracking through on tuesday
will support light winds and rain as the weak low tracks in between
the central and eastern great lakes.

a vigorous low pressure system deepening over lake superior tuesday
night into wednesday will drag in the coldest air of the season thus
far for the mid week period. snow squalls and high end northwest
gales appear likely in wednesday-thursday in the time period. bulk
of euro ensembles indicating wind gust speeds of 40-45 knots, thus
confidence is high for a gale watch. the peak of the winds looks to
be wednesday evening, but this will be a long duration of gales over
lake huron. winds look to begin to slowly diminish on friday as the
pressure gradient relaxes, but the cold air (850 mb temps of
negative teens) will continues to support lake effect snow showers.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from wednesday morning through friday morning for lhz361-
362.

gale watch from wednesday morning through friday morning for lhz363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...gale watch from wednesday morning through late thursday night for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale watch from wednesday morning through late thursday night for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.