Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
935
fxus61 kcle 121140
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
640 am est thu feb 12 2026

.what has changed...
trended the snow forecast down slightly for today as high pressure
continues to build into ohio. flurries remain likely but coverage of
accumulating snow is lower. temperatures have continued to trend a
little cooler tonight where skies clear out with high pressure.

&&

.key messages...
1) a mix of light snow and flurries will persist across far
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania today with minimal
impacts.

2) most of the area will experience above normal temperatures
beginning this weekend and continuing through the middle of next
week, melting the snowpack across the region.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...

a surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure extending
from the western great lakes to the ohio valley and expanding east
across ohio. while light echos continue on radar, reports via asos
sites have been more indicative of flurries than snow. the exception
is in erie county pennsylvania where low level flow remains out
of the west and recent trends are pointing towards an uptick in
activity. have lowered pops slightly in ohio and raised
slightly across the higher terrain of eastern erie and crawford
counties in pennsylvania for today. accumulations in erie
county still look to be localized and on the order of 1-2 inches
while other portions of the snowbelt from geauga county east
into crawford county will see a spotty half inch or less. the
low level water vapor channel shows dry air continuing to expand
eastward which aligns pretty well with the rap moisture at
700mb. this is modeled to rotate slightly westward through 7 am
so could see the light snow pick up just a little in far ne
ohio this morning. otherwise moisture in the 850 to 700mb layer
will tend to decrease through the morning. high temperatures
today will trend a little cooler from yesterday, ranging from
the lower 30s in nw pa to near 30 degrees in nw ohio.

.key message 2...
following a brief cool down today, the upper level trough axis
shifts off the east coast of the united states on friday. ridging
aloft expands east through the ohio valley with 500mb heights of 555
dm on saturday. while an upper level trough closes off over the
lower ohio valley saturday into sunday, this system quickly moves
off to the east with ridging aloft returning monday through
wednesday. normal high temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s for
mid february and we should surpass that across most of the area on
saturday. look for temperatures through monday to favor the 40s
before surpassing 50 degrees for tuesday and wednesday. the snowpack
should melt rapidly during this stretch as dewpoints climb well
above freezing from tuesday and beyond. drains should be cleared
of snow and debris to allow water to drain through early next
week. most of the snowpack has an inch or less of liquid to
release with a few pockets close to two inches. runoff is likely
to lead to some gradual increase in rivers which have thick ice
coverage. the concern remains for ice jams but the warm
temperatures of the next week may help to gradually melt some of
the river ice. prefer the ice to start melting but some jams
could develop due to thermal break up. we are fortunate that
precipitation is limited over the next 7 days. there is a chance
of light rain on sunday as an upper level low closes off over
the lower mississippi valley and directs moisture northward. the
next chance of rain is next wednesday with overrunning along a
warm front.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
some very minor lake-enhanced snow will continue across parts
of northeast oh and northwest pa into today, with limited and
transient vsby restrictions. activity will generally decrease
through the day, though a few flurries may linger around eri and
yng through this evening. otherwise, ceilings will bounce
between mvfr and vfr across the area through the day, with more
vfr pushing in from the west-southwest through the day and into
tonight as high pressure and drier air build in. clouds/ceilings
will likely be somewhat in and out at tol, fdy, and perhaps mfd
today before clearing more definitively by this evening. it is
more uncertain how quickly cle, cak, yng and eri will clear
tonight, as flow will persist off the lake longer there.
ultimately, have cle and cak going sct this evening with yng and
eri hanging on to an mvfr ceiling through the taf period,
though some refinement is likely in future forecasts.

northwest winds in the 5-12kt range today become light and
variable tonight.

outlook...non-vfr is possible with rain on sunday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered. west-northwest winds persist
at 10-20 knots through this afternoon, subsiding to under 10 knots
this evening. winds then remain light through most of friday while
gradually backing to a more southwesterly direction. southwest winds
increase to 10-20kt (perhaps briefly 20-25kt in the open waters of
the central and eastern basins) friday night before decreasing into
saturday. mainly light winds are expected sunday into early next
week. any mobile ice will be pushed towards the east-southeast
through this evening. some ice movement to the northeast is possible
friday night, though it is not as confident if the brief period of
elevated southwest winds will be enough to push ice fastened to the
shoreline out into the lake (i.e. ice floes). still, something to
keep in mind. some slow deterioration of the ice is likely sunday
through at least the first half of next week due to a period of
milder temperatures, though with generally light winds and limited
precipitation through at least tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 121135
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
635 am est thu feb 12 2026

.key messages...
- patchy fog this morning along with increasing clouds today.

- there is a 20-30% chance of rain saturday night through
sunday, primarily south of us 30.

- trending warmer this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 143 am est thu feb 12 2026

high pressure centered over illinois will provide tranquil
conditions today. the primary near-term forecast challenges are
patchy fog early this morning and forecast highs this afternoon.
so far fog has been confined to the far northwest forecast
zones where northwest flow off the lake may be enhancing low-
level moisture profiles. sites further inland have had instances
of similarly small dew point depressions (2f) but no fog
reports so far. forecast soundings do depict a subsidence
inversion which will trap any low-level moisture flux. overall,
do not expect widespread fog this morning as it will be confined
to areas such as la porte, south bend, and even plymouth, in.

high clouds slowly stream in today as low pressure moves over
the great basin. 850mb temperatures (and 500mb heights) will be
slightly warmer (higher) than yesterday while morning lows are
certainly colder. model guidance has struggled these past couple
of days with the pattern change, thus, have increased
temperatures today to nearly match those of wednesday.

no sensible weather concerns until saturday night where southern
portions of the forecast area have a 20-30% chance of rain that
lingers into sunday. the trough responsible for the anticipated
surface low will continue to work its way inland today, while
also within the time frame of medium-range guidance bolstering
forecast confidence. the in- house blend jives well with
available deterministic and ensemble guidance in its southern-
cwa solution, offering about a 40% chance of measurable (>=0.01")
rainfall. given recent/ongoing snow melt and heavy rain
elsewhere in the state, the local flood concern appears minimal
at this time.

notably warmer friday and into next week as upper-level ridging
takes shape. high temperatures in the 50s to near 60 remain on
the table and are among the 25th percentile of model guidance
(e.g., 75% chance that high temperature may be warmer than
currently advertised). an active northern stream jet presents an
increasing chance for rain by the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 630 am est thu feb 12 2026

strong radiational cooling conditions have allowed some patchy
shallow fog to form across portions of northwest/north central
indiana early this morning. proximity of ridge axis will
continue to make this potential greater at ksbn in comparison to
kfwa over next few hours. some brief ifr vsbys are possible at
ksbn, but are of lower confidence than mvfr vsbys through around
14z this morning. otherwise, an expansive mvfr deck has formed
across south central lower michigan this morning, likely in
response to some enhanced low level fgen forcing resulting from
southeast track of sheared vort max across the northern great
lakes. with gradual weakening of this fgen forcing this morning
and little movement to baroclinic zone, confidence remains low
in mvfr cigs affecting ksbn/kfwa, but this potential will need
to be watched for potential brief occurrence mid morning into
early afternoon given relatively low dew point depressions in
the lowest 1-2k feet. winds will remain quite light through the
period due to the low level anticyclone slowly tracking eastward
across the region into friday morning. this setup could yield
some additional patchy fog development tonight, but confidence
is too low to include at this longer forecast distance.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 121044
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
544 am est thu feb 12 2026

.key messages...

- near average temperatures today with a bit more sun.

- gradual but steady warm-up commences friday and persists into the
first half of next week. much above normal high possible by mid next
week.

&&

.aviation...

the lake michigan moist plume continues to provide intervals of
strato cu across se mi. marginal cold air over the central portion
of the lake has led to intervals of clearing. however, the
persistence of a deep low level inversion continues to hold some low
level moisture in place. recent satellite trends and latest model
soundings are indicating some re expansion of the clouds this
morning. given the persistence of the inversion today, a prevailing
ceiling will be carried this afternoon. observations and latest
model guidance indicate ceilings likely hovering around the 3000
foot mvfr/vfr threshold. high pressure expanding into the region
from the west this afternoon/evening and warm air advection over
lake mi will reduce the chances for low clouds to persist into
tonight.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. low tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am est thu feb 12 2026

discussion...

southern lower mi remains under the western edge of lingering upper
troughing as surface high pressure builds in through the day. this
high lightens northwesterly winds reducing lake moisture transport
as well as increasing subsidence, the combination of which promotes
more of a mix of sun and clouds today (rather than mostly cloudy
like yesterday). while the overall airmass is unchanged from
yesterday, better shot at more sun today does offer an extra degree
or two of warming with highs forecast to be near the freezing mark
for all but thumb.

surface ridge axis shifts to our east by friday morning setting up
weak waa as s-sw return flow develops. this pattern holds through
the weekend as spilt upper level flow maintains low amplitude
ridging across the upper midwest/great lakes. subsequent high temps
steadily warm each day from upper 30s friday to mid 40s by sunday.
spilt pattern still expected to keep the then developing southern
stream low well south towards the tennessee valley with the northern
edge of the precip shield only reaching the ohio valley at max
extent. a weak passing shortwave over the northern great lakes late
sunday likewise looks to miss the area to the north supporting dry
conditions into the new week.

long range models continue to advertise a respectable low passing
over northern ontario/james bay monday strengthening warm southerly
flow into se mi. this advection persists through the first half of
the week as central conus upper ridging expands over the great
lakes. highs for the early to midweek period favored to be above to
much above average with 50s possible by wednesday, if not tuesday
for some areas.

marine...

moderate northwest flow across the central great lakes will ease
slightly this morning as high pressure tracks into the western great
lakes. this high will spread southeast, situating into the ohio
valley tonight into friday morning. wind will shift from the
southwest and increase on friday as a clipper system tracks across
the northern lakes. gusts to 20 to 25 kt are forecast for a brief
period during the afternoon. high pressure then passes over the
region saturday and sunday with lighter winds. a weak cold front may
pass through late sunday, but mainly dry conditions and light
winds are favored into early next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kdk
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.