Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
824
fxus61 kcle 072031
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
331 pm est sat mar 7 2026

.what has changed...
the tornado watch has been canceled and severe thunderstorms are
no longer expected for the rest of the day.

&&

.key messages...
1) the next period of unsettled weather is expected tuesday
night through wednesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy
rain and perhaps a few stronger thunderstorms. light snow is
also possible with this system wednesday night.

2) a clipper system will move east through the upper great
lakes on friday which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local
area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a digging upper-level trough and intensifying jet streak are
expected on wednesday, favoring a deepening low pressure as it
tracks from the mid-mississippi valley towards southern ontario.
periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected with the warm
front initially as it lifts northward across the area tuesday
night. there could be a few stronger storms with the warm front
depending on the timing (afternoon/evening = better shot at
strong storms....if it`s late at night, strong storms unlikely).

most model guidance have our entire forecast area well within
the warm sector on wednesday, with breezy southwest flow (50-60%
chance of gusts > 30 kts) and very warm conditions (highs in the
low 70s; could be close to record highs). strong forcing will
lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms, with a
very favorable wind field for organized, severe convection.
severe thunderstorms are tough to forecast, so while synoptic
conditions are favorable with the current suite of model
guidance, it will likely come to smaller-scale details, which
will be ironed out as we get closer.

a very strong cold front will swing through sometime wednesday
evening, with an impressive temperature drop forecast as highs
in the low 70s wednesday afternoon drop to lows around 30
wednesday night. some residual moisture will allow for some snow
showers wednesday night with light snow accumulations not out of
the question. the latest nbm has a 30-50% chance of >1" of snow
in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania (15-30% chance
elsewhere).

key message 2...
low pressure is expected to swing through the northern great
lakes friday into saturday. some light rain (maybe some snow
early) is possible with a warm front on friday. breezy
conditions (40-70% chance > 30 kts, highest in northwest ohio)
and above normal temperatures (mid 50s friday afternoon) are
expected behind the warm front on friday, before a rain to snow
transition of precipitation is expected with a cold front on
saturday.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
a broken line of storms across parts of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania (mainly east of i-71) will continue for
the next few hours, exiting the area by 20-21z. an area of
trailing stratiform rain will follow for a few more hours.
brief, isolated gusts up to 30-40 knots and ifr visibilities
are possible

a short break in precipitation is expected before light rain
develops along a southeastward moving cold front late this
evening into early tonight. areawide mvfr ceilings are expected
immediately behind the front and likely lasting through the
night. a few patches of ifr will be possible. cloud cover clears
up by mid-morning sunday, giving way to clear skies.

winds will be southerly southwesterly today 12 to 20 knots with
gusts up to 25 to 30 ahead of the cold front this afternoon.
winds will shift from the west tonight 8 to 12 knots tonight and
the gusts will gradually relax by late evening.

outlook...non-vfr is likely with showers and thunderstorms
tuesday night into wednesday followed by a rain/snow mix
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds around 20 knots or so continue through this
evening before a cold front swings and winds weaken to around 10
knots tonight as high pressure briefly builds in. high pressure
moves off to the east, with southwest flow around 10-15 knots
continuing through tuesday. a deepening low pressure system is
expected to move just north of the lake on wednesday, with
south to southwest flow increasing to around 20 to 25 knots on
the lake. warm and breezy conditions through this period is
likely to accelerate ice decay. a strong cold front will follow
with northwest winds of 20-30 knots likely wednesday night into
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
726
fxus63 kiwx 071815
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
115 pm est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers with a few wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are
expected this afternoon.

- more rain and thunderstorms are expected tuesday night into
wednesday. there is potential for heavy rain and severe storms
with this system but confidence in details is very low this
far out.

- cooler temperatures briefly return behind today`s cold front
but warm back to near 70 degrees for monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 pm est sat mar 7 2026

primary surface cold front associated with approaching positively-
tiled midlevel trough is currently entering our cwa. mesoanalysis
shows very limited instability ahead of this front with only a few
hundred j/kg of mlcape. hi-res forecast soundings further show a
sharp warm nose around 750mb, likely due to passage of morning
convection. some minor surface-based destabilization remains
possible into this afternoon but that inversion will be difficult to
overcome and not currently expecting any severe storms to develop.
however, winds in the top of the boundary layer are around 45 knots
so expect there will be a few 40-45mph gusts as this front passes.
given the short window at any one location, will plan to handle with
sps`s along the line as needed vs. a widespread wind advisory. this
cold front will exit our se zones around 00z with dry weather then
expected until late tuesday. lows tonight drop into the 30s but
temps rebound quickly on sun as mid/upper flow becomes highly zonal
and waa slowly ramps up in strong wsw flow. highs will be near 70f on
mon and well into the 70s on tue ahead of the next trough.

tue night/wed bears watching as an upper level low currently
developing off baja california phases with a northern stream pacific
jet/trough. the net result is what becomes a very strong, negatively
tilted trough with near 988mb surface low lifting into quebec. ahead
of this trough, ample moisture will lift north into the warm front
tue night. heavy rain is likely somewhere from our cwa into central
mi. will also have to keep an eye on severe weather potential with
ample shear/helicity along the warm front. instability is much more
questionable, especially if the best ascent does not arrive until
06z or later as currently suggested. will also have to watch the
cold frontal passage during the day wed. hard to nail down mesoscale
details this far out but tue night through wed is certainly worth
watching. colder air returns quickly late wed and precip may even
end as some brief snow showers. another system is then possible on
fri but guidance still shows a lot of variability with this system
so confidence is low.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1225 pm est sat mar 7 2026

a prefrontal trough had the initial showers and storms mainly south
and east of the terminals this morning. a cold front is expected to
swing through behind, but instability appears to be the main
limiting factor for thunderstorms. will continue to keep mvfr
prevailing at sbn but cannot rule out ifr early in the taf period
and then again overnight. early vfr at fwa trends down into mvfr
late this afternoon and continues into sunday am. the combination of
moisture and cooler temperatures helps this out. a return to vfr
looks more likely mid to late morning on sunday.

wind-wise, gusts 25 to 35 kts will be possible especially along the
front, but wouldn`t be surprised to see sporadic gusts approaching
that magnitude out ahead of the front as well with showers moving
through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
954
fxus63 kdtx 072044
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
344 pm est sat mar 7 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder return this evening
as a cold front works through southeast michigan.

- late afternoon gusts peak near 40 mph.

- warm and breezy again sunday and monday, but drier.

- widespread precipitation likely late tuesday through wednesday with
showers, thunderstorms, and snow possible.

&&

.discussion...

warm sector, marked by temperatures in the mid 60s (dewpoints in the
upper 50s), is becoming less favorable for late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. midday cape (250-500 j/kg) has already
peaked, and will continue to trend lower as a cold front and its
associated frontal circulations pass through. based on the location
of a lower michigan surface obs wind shift, the boundary is now
approaching the western cwa border with weak shower activity noted
in kdtx/kgrr reflectivity data. drier air has already filled into
the mid-levels while slight warming of the 800-700 mb layer has led
to weak stabilization and capping. additional scattered showers with
a few rumbles of thunder are still possible this evening, but
convective intensity has trended lower suggesting minimal severe
risk. late morning spc swody1 update removed the marginal risk
overlap for southeast michigan, and even the mention of general
thunder. flow turns zonal in the wake of the front tonight with high
confidence in dry conditions tonight, after 03z. 850 mb temperatures
crash below 0c late overnight with the airmass transition, capable
of producing lows in the 30s.

the active pattern persists sunday with 980 mb low pressure crossing
central ontario. prognostics indicate constriction of the pressure
gradient on sunday as winds back southwesterly. prevailing speeds
should broadly rise in the 20 mph range by midday as low-level winds
increase further. mixing depths will remain fairly shallow, even
during the diurnal maximum. 40-50 knot flow should stay trapped
above 875 mb (3 kft agl), but 35 knot flow could mix down and
produce a period of gusts ranging from 30-40 mph. the nocturnal
inversion settles in quickly sunday evening ending the higher-end
gusts. seasonably mild conditions extend into sunday as the latest
forecast indicates highs in the upper 50s. suppressing high pressure
over the southeast washes out as a split-flow configuration begins
to emerge within the broader vicinity of the great lakes region. no
precipitation concerns monday with temperatures being the main
story. warm and breezy southwest flow helps lift 850 mb temperatures
into positive double digit (celsius) territory supporting daytime
highs in the upper 60s.

an amplified pattern evolves upstream mid-week as a cut-off upper
low over the four corners region dislodges, quickly phasing with the
northern stream jet. rapid deepening of an embedded shortwave
feature leads to aggressive height falls across the midwest and a
sharp uptick in confluent southwest flow. this leads to an influx of
low-level thetae convergence and elevated nocturnal stability, late
tuesday into wednesday. potential exists for thunderstorms during
this time, but lapse rates are unimpressive and timing of low-level
saturation is in question. wrap-around moisture and a much colder
airmass fills in as the surface low exits into southern ontario
wednesday evening, which favors some post-frontal snowfall into
thursday. if current 2m temperature trends hold, accumulations will
be possible once ground temperatures drop.

&&

.marine...

cold frontal passage this evening clears out persistent fog as
moderate, cooler west-northwest flow develops in its wake. as is
typical in this wind direction, strongest winds occur over the
northern third of lake huron where gusts peak around 30kts.
potential to reach 34kts over these waters continues to be too low
to warrant any headlines. winds over the remainder of the region
instead hold at or below 25kts. departing low pressure allows winds
to weaken overnight before another stronger low tracks over northern
ontario sunday. locally, the passage of this ontario low shifts
winds back to the southwest sunday morning as 50-60kt flow develops
aloft. thermal profiles however hold on the neutral to slightly
stable side inhibiting the degree momentum is able to mix down to
the surface. while a couple gusts to entry-level gales are possible
over the central waters of lake huron (including the saginaw bay),
confidence is low given the thermal profile. instead, peak gusts
around 30kts are most likely. a diffuse pressure gradient sets up
across the central great lakes by late monday as the ontario low
reaches northern quebec allowing winds to turn lighter through
tuesday. active pattern and stronger flow return by midweek as
deepening plains low pressure tracks over the central/southern great
lakes.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1238 pm est sat mar 7 2026

aviation...

mild and moist pre-frontal environment entrenched this afternoon,
leading to a higher coverage of mvfr stratus within a gusty
southwest wind. a period of deeper mixing remains possible
immediately ahead of the inbound cold front, affording a window of
gustiness upwards of 30 knots from the southwest. cold frontal
passage maintains a limited opportunity for convective shower
production between 21z and 23z. probability for thunderstorm
development remains very low given the meager instability held
within this cloudy environment. winds shift to westerly with a
gradual decline in gust magnitude and frequency in the wake of the
front late this evening. extensive mvfr stratus likely to hold
through much of the night, before greater clearing potential
materializes toward daybreak. vfr with mostly clear skies and
renewed gustiness to southwest wind sunday.

for dtw...very low probability for a thunderstorm will the cold
frontal passage 21z-23z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight. low sunday
morning.

* very low for thunderstorms early this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz361>363-421-
422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kgk
marine.......kdk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.