Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
607
fxus61 kcle 210812
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
412 am edt tue jul 21 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is increasing for a line of showers and thunderstorms
to develop and move east across the area late this morning and
early afternoon. if storms become severe, damaging wind gusts
are the most likely hazard. concern is also increasing for a few
rotating storms to develop later this afternoon and evening
across ne oh/nw pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and storms will develop and move east across the area
late this morning and early afternoon. the most likely window
for severe weather is between 11 am and 2 pm along and east of
the i-71 corridor with damaging wind gusts being the primary
hazard.

2) anomalously-cool air mass arrives on wednesday with lake-
enhanced showers possible.

3) temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest water vapor imagery (~3 am et) depicts a potent
shortwave across southern wisconsin/lake michigan early this
morning, with scattered showers and storms beginning to develop
across northern illinois. this area of showers and storms will
be the main area to watch this morning and early afternoon as
the shortwave continues to quickly move east through the lower
great lakes, providing plenty in the way of environmental shear
to support organized convection. there remains some uncertainty
on the amount of destabilization ahead of the line, mainly west
of the i-71 corridor, where probabilities of >1000 j/kg of cape
are lower. further east, along and east of the i-71 corridor,
severe weather chances appear to be increasing with a longer
period of daytime heating ahead of the line. given the
anticipated line storm mode, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph
are the primary concern with a most likely time window between
11 am and 2 pm, particularly along and east of the i-71
corridor.

attention then turns to later this afternoon and evening across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania where a
second area of pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms may
develop. concern is increasing for a few rotating storms with
this round as the low-level hodograph profile becomes more
favorable, potentially resulting in a localized tornado risk,
evident by the slight westward expansion of the 5% tornado
probabilities in the latest spc swody1 outlook. these storms
appear to be driven by mesoscale processes mainly below 700 mb,
evident by an abundance of dry air aloft, and thus, anticipating
this second round of convection to be fairly shallow, similar
to the type of storms seen across wisconsin yesterday (7/20).
confidence on this second round remains on the lower side,
especially with regards to intensity and coverage.

key message 2...
a strong cold front will move across the area tonight, ushering
in a chilly air mass into the region, characterized by 850 mb
temperatures falling as low as 6c on wednesday. lake-enhanced
rain showers will be possible throughout wednesday across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania in
addition to ample cloud cover, especially wednesday morning and
early afternoon. as a result, high temperatures may struggle to
get out of the 60s in some spots.

key message 3...
a large upper-level ridge across the western and central conus
will gradually expand further east into the great lakes by
friday into the weekend, resulting in temperatures to return
near or slightly above normal in the 80s. however, a series of
upper-level troughs across hudson bay appear poised to block the
eastward progression of the ridge. this pattern would appear to
favor increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the area
by early next week if trends continue.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions are expected through tonight. the aviation
forecast becomes tricky by about 12z this morning as a cluster
of thunderstorms moves east into the local area and multiple
rounds of showers/storms continue into this afternoon and
possibly as late as this evening. as of now, it looks like the
initial round of storms will be within the vicinity of ktol/kfdy
between 12 and 16z and east/southeastern by late morning/early
afternoon. there`s still some uncertainty in timing since storms
haven`t developed yet so amendments will likely be needed
throughout the overnight hours and into the morning. another
round of showers/storms is possible later this afternoon into
this evening, although confidence in coverage is a bit low at
this point. periods of non-vfr conditions are possible in storms
throughout the day today with non-vfr ceilings possible across
ne oh/nw pa as lake effect clouds/showers developing close to
the end of the taf period.

winds will be out of the south/southwest at 6 to 12 knots
tonight with southwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with
gusts to 20 to 25 knots near daybreak this morning. winds will
shift to the northwest and diminish to about 10 knots with
periodic gusts to 20 knots behind a cold front tonight.

outlook...residual non-vfr possible on wednesday in lake effect
rain showers and clouds across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this morning,
resulting in waves of 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore zones from
roughly vermilion to ripley ny. winds may briefly diminish as a
cold front crosses the area this afternoon/evening, but strong
cold air advection will cause winds to shift to the northwest
and increase to about 20 knots overnight, which will produce
continued elevated waves into wednesday. the small craft advisory
from maumee bay to the islands has been adjusted to start early
this morning and end at 4 am wednesday morning to account for
the enhanced northwest flow behind the cold front. meanwhile,
the small craft advisory remains in effect from the islands to
ripley ny from 8 am this morning until 10 pm wednesday evening.
thunderstorms are likely this morning and afternoon which will
result in higher winds/waves.

winds will diminish below 10 knots by early thursday morning and
expect light (10 knots or less) and variable flow through at
least the first half of the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
wednesday evening for ohz010>012-089.
pa...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
wednesday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt wednesday for
lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 10 pm
edt wednesday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
332
fxus63 kiwx 210724
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
324 am edt tue jul 21 2026

.key messages...

- there is a general 30-50% chance of showers with a few
thunderstorms today especially south of us-30 and east of i-69.
confidence in severe weather occurring is low, but cannot
completely rule out instances of isolated damaging wind gusts
or heavy rain.

- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake
michigan beaches on tuesday through thursday morning. stay
dry when waves are high.

- dry, cooler and less humid conditions arrive later today and
persist into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue jul 21 2026

convection did not survive into our area last night and the main
energy slipped south from eastern ia into south-central il. as
of current radar imagery our area remains precipitation free.
there is an area of scattered showers moving eastward across
northern il which may slip in here along the cold front later
this morning but any strong convection looks fairly unlikely
across our area today due to the poor diurnal timing of the
boundary passage. still think an isolated strong to severe
storm or two may still be possible for our far southeastern
parts of the cwa (i.e. lima, oh area) but again with the poor
timing the surface instability will be low to non-existent when
the boundary pushes through those areas. effective bulk shear
values along the boundary will run from 40-50 kts which if
convection can initiate some organization could be achieved.
spc does have a small portion of our cwa under a slight risk for
severe storms and a bit larger area of marginal today. the
biggest threat from these storms would be damaging gusts and
heavy downpours. hazardous marine conditions for the near shore
and lake michigan beaches today through thursday morning with
the more gusty northerly flow.

also in the wake of the cold front we actually may see some
lake effect clouds and showers develop off of southern lake
michigan late tonight and into wednesday with the cooler air
aloft and warmer lake temperatures in place. lows on wednesday
morning will be in the 50s while parts of lake michigan surface
water temperatures are currently in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
not expecting much of accumulation from any of the showers but
will be enough to keep areas near the lake damp on wednesday.
high temperatures on wednesday through friday will mainly be in
the 70s with a northwesterly flow aloft in place. this may also
keep some smoke in the air with that trajectory. slightly warmer
this weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s as ridging over
the central conus starts to push a bit eastward into the region.
dry conditions also otherwise for the area at least through
saturday night. a weak shortwave could allow for some
showers/storms by sunday afternoon but moisture may be hard to
come by with the ridging pushing eastward and blocking any
southern moisture. will keep our eyes on that.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 212 am edt tue jul 21 2026

confidence still remains low on possible convective impacts
this morning mainly at kfwa as the front slowly continues to
push southeastward. around the boundary, weak showers and
an isolated storm or two are possible. with the low confidence
have as a result, have kept any thunder mention from the tafs
and went with prob30 for showers. will continue to monitor and
if trends begin to point towards an increase in thunder
potential, will adjust. gusty southwesterly winds will become
more northerly in wake of cold front later today.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from this evening through thursday
morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late wednesday night for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
447
fxus63 kdtx 210735
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
335 am edt tue jul 21 2026

.key messages...

- there is an isolated risk for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms this morning and again early this afternoon with the
arrival of a cold front.

- mostly dry conditions with temperatures dipping below average
during the mid to late week period.

- next chance at precipitation over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...

a cluster of thunderstorms will continue to sweep across
north/central lower michigan along the lead edge of an instability
gradient and warm front early this morning. there is a respectable
warm layer aloft over southeast michigan per 00z dtx raob last
evening with mesoanalysis showing very limited surface instability.
this should help limit overall convective potential as the cluster of
thunderstorms move through. mid-level lapse rates with 20-30 knots
of effective bulk shear will still allow for any stronger updrafts to
pose an isolated damaging wind threat as this lead wave works
through the saginaw valley and thumb. the arrival of deeper moisture
will also support brief heavy downpours.

evening suite of hi-res models are struggling to capture the lack of
convection with southern extent as several have much higher coverage
that reaches southern areas of southeast michigan. thus, the
isolated severe threat looks confined along and north of i-69
through the remainder of the early morning hours. there is a
secondary weak wave that may move out of northern il that may lead to
an expansion of showers across southern portions of the cwa towards
12z, but confidence is low with how this plays out. focus then turns
to the trailing shortwave moving out of minnesota and through
wisconsin throughout the morning. this wave and associated cold front
should lead to better erosion of this mid level warm layer and
provide an opportunity for an uptick in convection behind morning
convection as it arrives towards the early afternoon. increasing
instability profiles with more favorable diurnal timing and better
cape depth with bulk shear of 20+ knots allows for a chance at
isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm development. activity
will pose mainly a damaging wind threat with a chance for small hail
as well. favored areas will include areas east of the i-75 corridor,
mainly during the early to mid afternoon period. aside from
thunderstorm potential, expect westerly winds to increase throughout
the morning with breezy northwest winds behind the front later today
as cold and dry air advection commences.

temperatures fall to well below average for july standards as 850 mb
temperatures dip into the single digits c bringing daytime highs for
wednesday in the low to mid 70s. comfortable humidity also expected
with dewpoints to to around 50 degrees. these dry and cool
conditions will carry over into thursday. high pressure continues to
limit convective potential into friday, but southerly flow will
begin to kick in to close out the work week. this will a slight
moderation in the cooler airmass and help lift daytime highs up to
around 80 degrees. next prospects for precipitation look to be
during the later half of the weekend when a wave moves out of the
northern plains along the northern periphery of the sw conus ridge.

&&

.marine...

a cold front swept across the great lakes overnight, with lingering
thunderstorms exiting east of the local waters this morning. breezy
westerly flow has emerged post-front with small craft advisories in
effect for both wind and wave concerns through wednesday. active
pattern continues as an upper level disturbance glances overhead
this afternoon, leading to additional thunderstorm chances which
could produce a strong to severe storm over the waters. a second
front then sweeps across the area this evening-overnight, shifting
winds further to the northwest and ramping up wind gusts toward gale
force for a brief period this evening (centered around 00z/8pm
local). gusts should quickly diminish with the frontal passage, thus
precluding gale headlines at this time. strong cold advection fills
in behind the front which keeps breezy conditions in place through
wednesday, although drier with the arrival of high pressure that
persists through late this week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at

aviation...

mid level capping has been holding convection across srn lower mi at
bay late this evening as the stronger large scale forcing has been
limited to northern michigan. a mid level short wave forecast to
advance across lower mi late tonight in combination with the
advection of higher mid level instability into se mi will continue
to warrant a chance of thunderstorms late tonight into early tuesday
morning. a frontal passage tues afternoon will lead to a veering of
the winds toward the wnw with gusts at or above 25 knots expected
given forecast mixing depths.

d21/dtw convection...the influx of elevated instability during the
09z to 12z time frame will warrant the risk of convection across the
metro airspace. although there is a chance for additional convective
redevelopment late tues morning and early afternoon, the chances are
quite low (less than 30 percent) at this time.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms overnight and tuesday morning.

* low for westerly crosswinds tuesday afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
wednesday evening for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt wednesday for lhz422.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...aa
marine.......mv
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.