Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
764
fxus61 kcle 091756
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
156 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

.what has changed...
decreased qpf through wednesday morning as coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be fairly isolated to
scattered.

&&

.key messages...
1) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into the
weekend. highest chances for precipitation will be this afternoon
and evening and thursday afternoon and evening.

2) summertime heat and humidity enter the region with peak heat
index values approaching 100 degrees by mid-week. slightly cooler
behind a cold front friday into the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a shortwave aloft coupled with a surface warm front will lift
east across the upper ohio valley today. showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move through the region through the day today.
coverage of showers/storms will remain isolated to scattered
with pops generally in the 40-60% range through tonight. near
record high pwat values in a moisture rich airmass will provide
a favorable environment for any shower/storm that develops to be
capable of producing heavy rainfall. given remaining
uncertainty with timing and coverage of showers/storms, any
flooding potential will be very localized or confined to areas
where training showers/storms occur.

any storms that occur this afternoon and evening should remain below
severe limits, but can`t rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm
given moderate instability (800-1200 j/kg sbcape) and deep-layer
shear of 20-25 knots. as for wednesday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening hours
given the moist and unstable airmass. the 00z href shows increased
instability (2000-2500 j/kg sbcape) and deep-layer shear increasing
to 25-30 knots. a few severe storms may be possible with primary
hazards of damaging wind gusts and large hail. spc has highlighted
our cwa in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on
wednesday.

a cold front will push towards the region during the day on thursday
with another period of afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected
to develop ahead of the front. spc has included the entire forecast
in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on thursday.

key message 2...
anticipate a period of above normal temperatures with hot and humid
conditions through the end of the week. summertime temperatures with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be coupled with
dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. heat indices will also be
on the rise through the week with peak heat index values approaching
100f wednesday and thursday. limited overnight relief as overnight
lows will settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s. early season heat is
oftentimes more dangerous and can pose a greater risk for heat-
related illness. stay hydrated and take frequent breaks out of the
sun and in cooled locations! temperatures will fall behind cold
front on friday with cooler highs in the mid 80s expected through
the weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
mixed-bag of vfr and mvfr across the taf sites this afternoon,
associated with pockets of lower ceilings. highest confidence
for non-vfr vsbys over the next several hours is at tol/fdy/eri
as there remain two areas of concern for shower and
thunderstorm development. anticipate vsbys to briefly fall to
ifr with the passing showers and thunderstorms, and have these
reflected as tempos in the latest update. another wave of energy
will move east through the area later this evening and
overnight, though confidence in direct taf impacts remains low.
an area of low ceilings may also develop late overnight into
wednesday morning, particularly along and east of the i-71
corridor. although mvfr ceilings are reflected in the latest
update, it is possible for ceilings to trend lower towards ifr
in future packages.

winds are generally out of the south this afternoon, 10 to 15
knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. winds will
gradually shift towards the southwest overnight, then favor a
west to southwest direction by early wednesday afternoon, around
10 knots.

outlook...periods of non-vfr likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms through friday. another period of non-vfr
conditions is possible in showers and thunderstorms sunday
afternoon.

&&

.marine...
offshore winds today increase to 15kts with wave heights increasing
to 1-2ft away from shore in the nearshore zones. beginning tonight,
these winds will become southwesterly 10-15kts through friday. wave
heights in the western and central basins, where southwesterly winds
are more offshore in nature, will be less than a foot adjacent to
the shore and will increase to 1-2ft away from shore in the
nearshore zones. cleveland eastward, wave heights will be 1-2ft for
the entire nearshore zone with winds parallel to the shoreline.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...kahn
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
736
fxus63 kiwx 091931
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
331 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity on the increase through thursday, with highs
in the mid-upper 80s and low 90s. heat indices on wednesday
and thursday will be around 100 degrees. lows will be in the
60s, low- mid 70s.

- daily chances (generally 40-80 percent) for showers and storms
this week. severe weather potential exists for both wednesday
and thursday during the late afternoon-evening and overnight
hours. there is higher confidence in the threat materializing
thursday evening into the overnight hours, especially west of
interstate 69. damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats. a tornado or two may be possible, especially thursday
evening/night.

- lower chances (20-30 percent) for showers and storms return
sunday afternoon into monday, with temps cooling into the low
to mid 80s with decreased humidity.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

very warm/moist airmass remains over the area and further
increase in humidity values with low to mid 70s today and
increasing into the mid to upper 70s by tomorrow. did opt to
address this heat/humidity (higher heat indices) for wednesday
with an issuance of a heat advisory from noon until 8 pm. heat
indices will generally be near 100 but values up to 103 will be
possible especially our eastern portions of the cwa. uncertainty
on if clouds may keep the heat indices a bit blunted but we
would certainly be splitting hairs as it will be muggy and very
uncomfortable and with this being the first bout of decent
heat/humidity this season will be a bit more taxing on everyones
system.

the unstable airmass has also allowed for any perturbations such
as this morning`s shortwave to fire off bouts of convection and
will continue to do so over the next several days. the nature
of this definitely has made for a difficult convective forecast
especially with the timing and coverage. guidance also seems to
be struggling with no real consensus had between convective
allowing models. for the short term the lack of available
shear/forcing mechanisms have led to more of the pulse variety
of storms with the main impacts in the form of heavy downpours
in the very tropical-esque environment along with a few strong
outflow gusts accompanying any collapsing cores. a weak
shortwave looks to move through later today and will see an
uptick in thunderstorm/shower activity overnight tonight with
less than ideal diurnal timing which should also mitigate storm
strength. another shortwave transversing through the area late
in the day tomorrow will bring another round of convection
however, the exact timing has been very difficult to nail down
and any morning convection could interfere with the afternoon
set up especially with increased clouds. as of right now the 6
pm through midnight edt time frame looks like the best bet for
timing. spc currently has our area under a marginal to slight
risk for severe thunderstorms with the better chances over the
northwestern parts of the cwa. main threats will be gusty winds
and hail. some of the convection looks to continue into thursday
morning.

still very difficult to lock down the exact timing but latest
guidance has a cool front approaching from the northwest by
thursday evening. 9pm until 3 am edt looks to be the best period
for this front to push through. the cool front will provide a
better forcing mechanism as well as provide better shear
profiles. some question as to if any convection earlier in the
day may affect the environment into the evening which could
mitigate the strength and coverage of storms along the frontal
boundary. but as of right now spc does have our area in a
marginal to enhanced risk for severe storms with the stronger
storms possible again over the northwestern portions of the
cwa. all threats look to be on the table with this event
including a few tornadoes being possible.

cooler and most importantly a drier airmass moves in behind the
front on friday and saturday. highs in the upper 70s to low/mid
80s expected with no precipitation forecast. however, another
cool front approaches the area by sunday morning bringing
another shot of cooler air while increasing chances for some
garden variety showers/thunderstorms on sunday into monday.
another trough drops southward into the central conus on
tuesday which will keep a slight threat of showers/thunderstorms
for the area in play.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1238 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

diurnal heating and mixing will likely allow mvfr cigs to mix up
into low vfr shortly after issuance with primarily vfr
conditions anticipated through the taf cycle. will have to
monitor widely scattered convection this afternoon into early
this evening in this moist airmass. brief flight reductions
possible if any storms track over the terminals. the only other
flight concern will be later tonight into early wednesday
morning at ksbn where low stratus/br could fill in near a subtle
frontal boundary (low confidence).

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for inz006>009-
015-017-018-022>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt wednesday for miz081.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
137
fxus63 kdtx 091705
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
105 pm edt tue jun 9 2026

.key messages...

- showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening will
pose a locally heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gust threat.

- heat and humidity builds in wednesday and thursday. afternoon
temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s with heat indices
potentially climbing into the upper 90s. a heat advisory may
eventually be needed.

- thunderstorms will be possible wednesday and thursday. the greater
severe thunderstorm threat will be late thursday/thursday night with
a slight risk in place for all of southeast michigan.

- not as warm and much less humid friday through the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

warm frontal boundary has largely lifted north of the terminal
corridor ushering in increasing low level moisture supporting mvfr
ceilings. scattered showers have thus far developed early this
afternoon however satellite obs show partial clearing over sw lower
mi which is advancing into se mi. increasing solar insolation is
still expected to allow for scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon lingering into the evening hours. overall setup carries
low predictability so have maintained inherited tempo-prob 30
framework to highlight the windows for potential storms with minor
tweaks to timing. soundings advertise an inversion developing
overnight as drier air filters in aloft which should result in a
persistent low vfr-high mvfr cloud layer going into wednesday
morning.

d21/dtw convection... scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through the evening (18-02z) with higher coverage favored
for the 18-21z window.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* moderate for thunderstorms between 18z and 02z this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 948 am edt tue jun 9 2026

update...

the 09.12z kdtx raob sampled a thermodynamic profile that contained
a fair amount of subsaturated air and residual static stability in
the lowest 10.0 kft agl. progs on isentropic surfaces suggests a
high amount of moisture exists immediately upstream tied to a pseudo
moisture transport axis arcing from the midlevel pv
maximum/convectively augmented low pressure circulation now lifting
through east central wisconsin. observationally this tracks with the
line of shower activity immediately at the doorstep aligning to this
moisture axis. precipitation chances will increase through the
midday period as this spoke pushes to the east or northeast through
the area. no severe weather is anticipated in the immediate now term.

later this afternoon, anticipated breaks in the clouds should allow
june insolation to steepen lapse rates considerably in the 1000-
850mb layer. forecast soundings suggest that while cape profiles
will remain skinny, equilibrium heights should have no problem
reaching 35.0 kft agl and sbcapes should reach 1250-1500 j/kg. with
any deep convection and pwats reaching near 2.0 inches the concern
will be water loading/wet microbursts from cell collapses. isolated
strong to possibly severe wind gusts may become possible during the
late afternoon and early evening. something to monitor.

prev discussion...
issued at 404 am edt tue jun 9 2026

discussion...

mid level low pressure circulation will move across the upper
peninsula today and drag a weak frontal zone across southeast
michigan this afternoon. a few showers/isolated thunderstorms are
preceding this front this morning with the lead vorticity and thetae
advection. the low level jet will help carry and an impressive
moisture rich environment into the area today. pwats from observed
soundings last evening at ilx and dvn came in at 2.01 inches and 1.91
inches respectively. this airmass is arriving locally this morning
along with the low 70s dewpoints being observed lifting into lower
michigan. the moisture and inbound front will support high pops
across the area that increase this morning and carry into early
evening. favorable diurnal timing will yield cape values around 1500-
2000 j/kg helping support stronger updrafts. limiting factors that
will preclude a mention of a greater severe weather threat will be
weak bulk shear at 20-25 knots and weak lapse rates. the warm cloud
depths and moist adiabatic lapse rates point do point towards a
greater heavy rainfall threat, which in turn brings potential for
strong gusty winds from precip loaded downburst. guidance continues
to point towards pockets of 1-2 inches or greater of qpf that will be
possible focused between 16z and 04z today. confidence is low as to
where these localized higher totals will possibly fall. southeast
michigan remains in general thunderstorms for the spc convective
outlook for today.

ridging will translate over the central great lakes wednesday into
thursday. increasing southwest flow will carry an even warmer
airmass into the region with 850mb temperatures climbing to around
20c. this leads to an increase in surface temperatures reaching the
low 90s. add in the persisting humid airmass with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s and heat indices should approach 100 degrees
and bring potential for heat headlines. the other concern for
wednesday will be the severe weather potential, which appears to be
towards the later part of the day as a shortwave arrives on the
heals of the passing ridge. additional forcing from the increasing
low level jet may be enough to trigger convection in the backdrop of
greater subsidence and capping with the upper ridging. tail end of
the href suggests some convection is able to develop which would
pose mainly a wind and hail threat. strong instability (2000-3000
j/kg of mlcape) and steeper mid level lapse rates will be available,
but shear remains lacking wednesday evening. a marginal risk for all
of southeast michigan is in place for wednesday.

a brief lull in precip looks possible thursday afternoon with
afternoon conditions remaining hot and humid with heat indices again
approaching 100 degree. the greater severe weather threat is also
slated for late thursday and thursday night. a strong wave will
cross the western great lakes into ontario and send a cold front
through the region. timing will be less favorable after peak
heating, but models do offer enough instability with strong wind
fields yielding good shear and more favorable lapse rates. this set
up points towards a cold pool driven mcs along the front that would
arrive locally pending the environment remains favorable. a slight
risk for all of southeast michigan is in place for thursday.

the cold front sweeping through will drive the hot and humid airmass
off to the east and bring more seasonable conditions for friday into
the weekend. lower confidence forecast over the weekend as troughing
holds over the midwest brings low end precip chances. afternoon
temperatures by sunday are forecast to be back down into the 70s and
low 80s.

marine...

weak low pressure tracks across lower mi today and reaches lake
huron late this evening. scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the area with wind predominantly
out of the southeast near 10 kt. isolated storms may produce winds
in excess of 34 kt. a warm and unstable air mass will take residence
wednesday and thursday, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. prevailing wind will be out of the west and southwest
with potential for gusts upwards of 20 kt at times, especially over
the shallower, warmer waters of saginaw bay, western lake erie, and
lake st. clair. a cold front passes through the region on friday and
brings a brief period of drier conditions.

hydrology...

a moisture rich environment will pose a locally heavy rainfall
threat today. while most ensemble members put qpf amounts generally
within 0.25" to 0.75", the environment will be supportive of pockets
of 1.00" to 2.00" rainfall amounts or greater. highly variable
amounts can be expected across southeast michigan. convective
rainfall rates will have potential to reach 1.00" or greater at
times, especially during the afternoon and early evening. low
confidence exists as to where these heavier pockets of rainfall
would fall, but the environment will certainly support isolated
flash flooding potential especially if it occurs over any urban
areas or flood prone areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
update.......cb
discussion...aa
marine.......tf
hydrology....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.