Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
415
fxus61 kcle 061145
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
745 am edt wed may 6 2026

.what has changed...
confidence is slowly increasing for patchy to areas of frost
west of the i-71 corridor tonight. otherwise, no significant
changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain will exit east of the area this morning.
chilly nights are expected tonight and thursday night with some
frost possible.

2) rain chances will return towards the end of the week and into
the weekend followed by another chilly airmass early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

post-frontal widespread rain will gradually exit east of the
area later this morning, with an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches
of rain expected, mainly east of the i-71 corridor. starting to
see some minor river rises, but nothing too significant thus
far. a cooler air mass will arrive into the region later today,
characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 to -2c,
which will drop overnight lows into the mid to upper 30s. at
this time, the highest confidence for frost to develop tonight will
generally be west of the i-71 corridor where cloud cover should
diminish more quickly vs further east. another chance for frost
conditions is possible thursday night, though a weak low
pressure system moving through the area could introduce cloud
and/or rain chances and limit the overall potential.

key message 2...

more widespread rain chances will return friday night into
saturday as a low pressure system moves east through the lower
great lakes region. there exists some uncertainty on the axis of
heavier rainfall and the overall evolution of the system,
though the areas where rain occurs can generally expect total
amounts between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. a stronger low pressure
system and associated cold front will move east through the
region on sunday, bringing widespread rain and perhaps some
embedded thunderstorms across the area. total rainfall amounts
with this system, have the potential to be slightly higher than
the friday system given the more convective elements involved.

another cool air mass will arrive behind the cold front early
next week, with low temperatures falling into the 40s or upper
30s, especially monday night into early tuesday morning. the
active pattern is favored to continue towards mid-week as a
third low pressure system appears to impact the lower great
lakes region on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
the last of the rain will end at kyng and keri over the next 1
to 2 hours, with ifr/lifr cigs there improving to mvfr.
otherwise, all terminals will be prevailing vfr by mid morning
as drier air works into the region. vfr is then expected
through tonight as high pressure builds over the great lakes.

nw winds will average 5-10 knots later this morning into this
afternoon, backing to more wnw by this evening and tonight.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected friday through sunday.

&&

.marine...
mainly quiet conditions will continue on lake erie through the
weekend as pressure gradients will be overall weak, supporting
light winds most of the time. light and variable winds early
this morning will become nw to wnw at 5-15 knots this afternoon
through tonight before backing to w at 5-15 knots thursday. sw
winds will average 10-15 knots thursday night and friday, with
sw winds expected to dominate through saturday with speeds
ranging from 5 to 15 knots. winds should finally turn n behind a
cold front sunday and decrease to 5-10 knots. no marine headlines
are expected through the next 5 days.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...garuckas
marine...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

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818
fxus63 kiwx 061028
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
628 am edt wed may 6 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably cool temperatures will be accompanied by frost
tonight.

- a short period of rain is ahead friday and friday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 317 am edt wed may 6 2026

anomalously chilly air will prevail over the region through
friday as an upper low lingers over hudson bay. this low brought
showers and chilly air to the region yesterday behind a cold
front. the cold air will bring the likelihood of frost formation
tonight especially north of highway 30 as temperatures drop
into the 30s. highs both today and thursday will only be in the
50s. pondered headlines for this upcoming night with surrounding
offices - the consensus was to defer any headlines to the
dayshift. the possibility, extent and amount of cloud formation
tonight under the high-based subsidence inversion will make low
temperature forecasts challenging.

a milder and more unsettled pattern is farther ahead into early
next week as the upper level trof over the great lakes region
shifts east and as the upstream flow becomes more zonal. ample
upper level disturbances will travel east in the upper flow and
bring chances for showers. at this time, severe weather chances
appear low.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 625 am edt wed may 6 2026

a low level trough axis shifting across the southern great
lakes has resulted in better low level fgen forcing slipping
south of the terminals with an increase in low level dry air
advection. the potential of measurable rain has come to an end
at the terminals this morning. after some brief clearing or
partial clearing this morning, additional mid level cloud cover
is expected today as a series of sheared short waves approach in
westerly flow regime associated with upstream positively tilted
upper trough. in addition the mid clouds, some sct-bkn vfr low
clouds are possible this afternoon. a weak westerly gradient
will be maintained today allowing some northwest winds around 10
knots, eventually becoming light and variable early this
evening with loss of daytime mixing and the approach of low
level ridge axis from the mid ms rvr valley.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
326
fxus63 kdtx 061006
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
606 am edt wed may 6 2026

.key messages...

- cool today and thursday with daytime highs in the 50s and
overnight lows in the 30s; some morning frost is possible on
thursday.

- mainly dry today and thursday, but isolated late afternoon and/or
evening showers are possible.

- temperatures recover over the weekend with additional rain
chances; potential exists for thunderstorms sunday.

&&

.aviation...

a suble moisture flux off saginaw bay has led to an area of mvfr
based clouds at mbs. diuranl heating will quickly erode these clouds
this morning. otherwise, high based clouds will exit to the east
this morning. this will allow some intervals of clearing before a
scattered to broken high based diurnal cloud deck develops in the
afternoon. ample low level dry air will sustain vfr conditions
today. light north-notheast winds around 12z will trend west-
northwest around 10 to 12 knots this afternoon as diurnal heating
commences.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 358 am edt wed may 6 2026

discussion...

the final round of light showers is finally winding down along the
michigan/ohio border as persistent 800-750 mb system-relative ascent
and axis of thetae advection drift eastward and exit. several
continental wave mergers are underway early this morning, but the
most significant is occurring with the northern and southern stream
longwave troughs over the mississippi valley. as the day progresses,
the resultant unified jet axis will extend an impressive distance,
some 3,000 miles between the baja peninsula and labrador sea.
southeast michigan will be situated adjacent to the western edge of
the jet streak, and between associated lobes of vorticity. governing
barotropic low slowly retrogrades over hudson bay today which helps
direct colder air aloft into the great lakes region. benign
conditions are favored with this configuration at least through the
midday hours. a packet of mid-level height falls along a shortwave
trough positioned within the mean flow is directed into lower
michigan. no meaningful precipitation response is expected with this
feature as a more zonal orientation to tropospheric flow ushers in
drier canadian air throughout the day. diurnal mixed-layer will be
fairly developed, extending to the 7-9 kft agl layer, but capping
above ensures nil instability. at most, could see some virga in some
vertically mature cumuliform clouds. nocturnal cloud fraction aloft
will dictate frost potential late tonight into thursday morning.

anticyclonically curved surface pressure gradient extends into
southern lower on thursday while the next embedded shortwave trough
takes aim at the tri-state area. non-zero chance for some pop-up
diurnal showers as a ribbon of 850-700 mb moisture spills into the
lower peninsula during the afternoon heating cycle. both coarse and
high resolution 06.00z solutions include isolated to scattered
showers/qpf. thursday is also shaping up to be the coolest day of
the week marked by 850 mb temperatures of -3c to -6c. highs should
struggle to break out of the mid 50s. late-day gustiness arises as
lower column flow increases amidst favorable mixing profiles, but
nocturnal cooling should outpace advective cooling after low veers
northwesterly, ending 20-25 knot gusts by late evening.

the unified jet axis orients equatorially through the tennessee
valley on friday, modified by the next shortwave digging into the
mid-mississippi valley. weak surface reflection is noted in nwp with
precipitation shield clipping the southern forecast area friday, and
into the overnight hours. thermal moderation with upward trend in
pwats aligns with nbm guidance of chance pops at this juncture.
warmer saturday with southwest flow ahead of a late weekend cold
front. a period of showers and thunderstorms is probable in relation
to the frontal passage.

marine...

winds are expected to stay on the light side (under 20 knots) for
the rest of the work week as a weak pressure gradient lingers. this
is despite a cooler airmass in place, with sub zero 850 mb temps.

a pattern of weak clipper systems brings periodic chances for
showers which will continue into the weekend as milder air and
higher moisture levels arrive. as it stands now, this leads to
saturday night being the primary window for showers and isolated
thunderstorms as a cold front slowly moves through the region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.