Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
737 am edt sun aug 23 2026

...12z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
no major changes to the upcoming forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers
across parts of northeast oh and northwest pa into early this
week. locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly this evening.
elsewhere, scattered showers are possible this afternoon and
evening before a prolonged period of drier weather arrives.

2 scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
wednesday night through thursday night. currently, the potential
for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall appears minimal.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface low pressure across southern ontario and an upper-level
trough over the great lakes are expected to become closed off
and more vertically stacked while drifting east through
tonight. the system will begin to gradually weaken starting on
monday while only slowly exiting through southeast canada and
new england. high pressure will gradually build into the ohio
valley and eventually across the local area early this week,
though lingering influence from the departing closed low won`t
totally exit our northeastern counties until tuesday.

the primary weather impact from the departing system will be
lake effect/enhanced rain showers occasionally streaming off of
lake erie into parts of northeast oh and northwest pa. lake
water temperatures are near 25c on average, so as 850mb
temperatures bottom out at 6-8c late today and tonight, with
700mb temperatures dipping to just below 0c and 500mb
temperatures bottoming out around -20c, impressive and deep
instability will be in place over the late summer lake waters.
flow will generally waiver between the west and northwest
through early tuesday before shifting more firmly offshore.

we are seeing a flareup of lake effect showers and a few storms
during the pre-dawn hours this sunday morning as an initial vort
max and surface trough axis works across the region. there will
likely be a lull for several hours later this morning into this
afternoon, before another impressive vort max and surface trough
cross the lake the first half of tonight. this is expected to
bring another, likely more widespread, flareup of lake effect
showers and thunderstorms. lake effect activity is possible as
far west as the islands and sandusky through early tonight.
thereafter, activity will continue mainly from near the
cleveland metro points east-northeast (and will be most
organized across northwest pa) monday into early tuesday, though
will likely shut-off farther west of cleveland as high pressure
gradually builds from the west-southwest. lake effect is not
expected to be as intense/organized (and will have decreasing
thunder potential) starting late tonight, and may completely
stop at times. however, coverage/intensity may briefly increase
monday morning, monday evening, and perhaps early tuesday as
additional spokes of mid-level energy and surface troughs
rotate around the backside of our departing closed low.

after this morning`s flareup, the main concern for organized
activity that could produce locally heavy rain downwind of lake
erie in short order is the first half of tonight. rain amounts
will need to be monitored for localized flooding potential if
any more stationary bands of lake effect play out, especially
over areas that saw heavy rain on saturday. lower overall
confidence in impactful flooding and a likely limited potential
areal scope of any flooding that occurs precludes a flood watch
at this time. some storms coming off the lake may produce small
hail through early tonight, with the potential for gusty winds
with any storms coming off the lake this evening as well. qpf
amounts from the eastern cleveland suburbs and across the core
"snowbelt" of far northeast oh and northwest pa generally range
from 0.50-2.00", which is manageable on its own, though given
the very convective nature amounts will vary more than shown in
the forecast and can locally end up in the 2-4" range. that
would be where an isolated flooding concern can develop.

across the rest of the area a good scattered of showers is
likely late this afternoon and evening as the vort max and
surface trough work through. otherwise, a drying trend is
favored into the first half of the week as high pressure builds.

highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s today and monday,
coolest across northeast oh and northwest pa (the hills of pa
may be stuck in the low-mid 60s most of monday), with overnight
lows largely in the 50s the next few nights. a few outlying
areas may get into the 40s monday night where skies clear. a
gradual warming trend begins on tuesday.

key message 2..
the next upper trough digs into the great lakes wednesday and
thursday, with weak low pressure tracking well to our north and
pulling a cold front through the local area likely on thursday.
this does not look like a very dynamic system, but will bring
the next potential for scattered showers and storms. the
greatest potential for rain appears to be late wednesday night
into thursday. given weaker dynamics and amounts of instability
and moisture that appear modest, the risk for severe weather
and/or heavy rain with this system is currently minimal.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
the main weather message for aviation over the next 24 hours
will be impacts from lake effect clouds and lake enhanced
rain showers with isolated thunder possible for taf sites in neoh
and nwpa closer to the lakeshore. clouds will increase with
mostly broken to overcast ceilings between 3500 and 5000 feet
downwind of lake erie. the variable low end vfr to mvfr
conditions will impact sites like cle, yng, cak, and eri today
through early monday morning. scattered rain showers with
isolated thunder possible will also impact those favored lake
effect taf sites today through tonight. we tried to highlight
the time periods when mvfr ceilings and visibility reductions
3sm to 5sm from passing showers/storm may impact those specific
airports later today and this evening. otherwise across nwoh and
central ohio will stay mostly with vfr ceilings and conditions
today through 12z monday. winds will be westerly to
northwesterly increasing 10 to 15 knots later this morning
through the evening. gusts up to 25 knots possible today,
especially closer to the lakeshore. the gusty winds will relax
to 10 knots or less by during the overnight before winds
becoming gusty again after 12z monday.

outlook...non-vfr conditions will be likely through monday
afternoon with lake effect clouds and lake enhanced rain showers
with isolated thunder possible for neoh and nwpa. vfr
conditions will return tuesday and wednesday as high pressure
builds across the region.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions are expected on lake erie today through
monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as
the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. west to
northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots today through monday afternoon. waves will increase
3 to 8 feet today through monday. waterspouts will be very
possible on lake erie today through monday as well. small craft
advisories and beach hazard statements for rip currents have
been issued through monday afternoon and evening. high pressure
will slowly build in monday night into tuesday with conditions
on lake erie improving. by tuesday, winds will be westerly to
southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet.
the southerly winds will linger into wednesday 5 to 12 knots
and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. the next weather system to
possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving
through the great lakes region by thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement through monday afternoon for ohz009-
010.
beach hazards statement through monday evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through monday evening for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 pm edt monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until midnight edt monday night for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
307 am edt sun aug 23 2026

.key messages...

- hazardous swimming conditions are expected on lake mi beaches
along berrien co, mi and la porte county, in today. dangerous
waves and currents are expected. monitor the beach forecast
for updates.

- chances (20-30%) for rain showers today, with partly cloudy
skies and gusty northwest winds. highs in the low-mid 70s.

- dry tonight into wednesday morning. chances for showers and
thunderstorms (30-60%) return wednesday afternoon and persist
into thursday. highs in the 70s, low 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 306 am edt sun aug 23 2026

the 500mb low hovering over northern ontario will deepen and shift
southward into the lake huron/southern ontario/quebec area by late
tonight, then lift slowly northeastward through wednesday along with
the corresponding surface low. our area lingers under cyclonic flow
aloft/at the surface through later tonight when surface high
pressure builds in beneath an expanding ridge to our west. the upper
level ridge builds in more broadly on tuesday. a shortwave
pinwheeling around the closed low moves through this afternoon/eve
along with a surface trough, which will re-invigorate the stronger
northwest wind gusts and wave activity on lake mi (thus beach
hazards statement/small craft remain in place until this evening
despite the lull overnight/early am). it will also bring us the
potential for rain showers where deeper moisture remains and we get
some afternoon instability (perhaps a little enhancement from cooler
air over lake mi). have chances around 20-30 percent. with cooler
850mb temps (7-10c) high temps this afternoon will primarily be in
the low to mid 70s, warmest east of i 69. lows tonight will be in
the low to mid 50s.

dry conditions persist from tonight into wednesday morning as a
dampening upper level ridge moves in over the great lakes. highs
will be in the 70s, low 80s. lows will be in the 50s.

another upper level trough moves through the great lakes wednesday
afternoon into thursday night, bringing a surface low through
northern ontario into hudson/james bay. a cold front will move west
to east across our cwa wed afternoon into thu, bringing us chances
(30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms. beyond that period, the
upper low lingers over hudson bay into saturday, eventually moving
northeast through the weekend. flow over our area becomes more zonal
in this time, with potential precipitation chances with each
shortwave rippling through. confidence wasn`t high enough to have
any pops for friday/saturday, but on sunday we see a stronger wave
move in so have 20-30 percent chances added in. temperatures remain
in the mid-upper 70s, low 80s through the period.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 151 am edt sun aug 23 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period, with
mvfr ceilings/vis possible during shower activity this morning
(ksbn) and possibly this afternoon (kfwa). some of guidance
hinting at some br development at kfwa early but left out for
now given winds are slightly stronger than models depict.
stronger w-nw winds return this afternoon, with gusts up to
around 20-25 knots possible. confidence in shower activity
impact either terminal is fairly is low-a lot of the guidance is
pretty widely scattered in terms of areal coverage. however,
felt confident to at least put a mention for ksbn given upstream
showers over lake mi with incoming trough. added a prob30 to
kfwa for later this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through this evening for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through this evening for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
548 am edt sun aug 23 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers
through tonight.

- dry weather monday into tuesday with a warming trend. the next
chance of showers and storms is possible late wednesday and
thursday.

&&

.aviation...

low pressure strengthening on the ontario/quebec border fuels
moderate nw wind across the western great lakes today. the wind
carries a cooler air mass into the region but one that still has a
usable amount of moisture as shown by surface td holding in the 50s.
the boundary layer thermal/moisture profile supports increasing
coverage of borderline mvfr/vfr stratocu once the sun applies some
surface heating during the morning. these clouds build into a deeper
cumulus field and then into scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening.

the ontario/quebec low pressure system is nearly stationary tonight
which keeps the associated cloud field overhead or nearby to the
east of the terminal corridor. consensus of model guidance favors
low end vfr ceiling late tonight and monday morning.

d21/dtw convection... low potential for an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon and evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate to high for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and tonight.

* low for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 318 am edt sun aug 23 2026

discussion...

a series of embedded shortwave maxima will dig directly into the
central great lakes bolstering a closed 560 dam h5 trough through
monday night. progs show 850mb temperatures bottoming out at +7c
which will largely support high temperatures in the lower to upper
70s range the next couple of days, some 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
beefiest of the absolute vorticity maxima will arrive this afternoon
with a direct path into the cwa while turning to a negative tilt.
forecast environmental profile shows main limiting factor for today
will be very modest midlevel lapse rate structure at 5.5 c/km
preceding the absolute vorticity. nwp supports upward vertical
motion beginning to deepen after 18z with height falls rapidly
pushing to the southeast of southeast michigan. will require a good
amount of lift to fight off the subsidence and all signs suggest
shower and possible thunderstorm activity being relegated to the
far southeast cwa mainly between 21-00z. guidance looks again
underdone. again, modest lapse rates do not suggest much cape
density this afternoon and no severe weather is expected.

closed low pushes eastward leading to 1000-500mb geopotential height
rises and surface high pressure monday. only real item of note will
be the potential for early to mid morning rain showers possible for
the northern thumb region/huron county as good model signal exists
for highly cyclonic flow and confluence downwind of saginaw bay and
lake huron.

great day tuesday for outdoor interests with high around 80 and
surface dewpoints in the 50s. high confidence in very favorable
weather with upper level confluent flow supporting strong surface
ridging.

broad upper level jet streak and associated absolute vorticity wave
packet is forecasted to push into the great lakes region wednesday
and thursday. uncertainty exists on most likely time window for
precipitation onset as there will be a dry column preceding the
wave. temperatures are expected to be near late august averages
thursday and friday.

marine...

breezy post-frontal northwest flow to persist today and into the
better part of tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the great
lakes. sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
are expected, the strongest of which will be found across north-
central and central lake huron where the fetch is more favorable.
some isolated gust potential to low-end gales cannot be ruled out
for lake huron, but will preclude any gale headlines given very low
confidence to achieve any prolonged period of gales. otherwise, rain
showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today along
with a very low chance for a waterspout, most favorable across lake
huron. high pressure will start to build into the region late
tomorrow and will settle over the great lakes by tuesday. process of
this high pressure moving in will start to relax wind speeds and
gusts, leading to light winds by tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...beach hazards statement through monday afternoon for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt monday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.

michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...cb
marine.......cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.