Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
845
fxus61 kcle 022331
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly seasonable and dry weather is expected through next
week. frost headlines are possible monday night.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a surface cold
front that has exited south of the area this afternoon, with
residual cloud cover lingering across the region. cloud cover is
expected to quickly erode by this evening as an area of high
pressure briefly builds south into the great lakes.

another cold front will move east through the area on sunday, though
precipitation chances should be limited or negligible with a large
area of mid-level dry air in place. behind this front, a stronger
area of canadian high pressure will build south into the region,
ushering in cooler and drier air. the highest confidence for the
most widespread frost threat appears to be monday night into tuesday
morning when the high is directly overhead, resulting in efficient
radiative cooling. the frost potential will continue tuesday night
into wednesday morning, though the area may become more limited and
confined to sheltered areas/inland northwest pennsylvania as warm
air advection gradually increases from the west.

another weak cold front may cross the area by the end of the week,
though the latest guidance suggests this may be another mainly dry
frontal passage with ample mid-level dry air in place.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr through the period. cirrus the main player, but no ceilings
into saturday. winds northerly 5-10kts become northeasterly
10kts saturday.

outlook...overall vfr conditions expected this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.marine...
choppy to rough marine conditions will return across the central and
eastern basin of lake erie this evening and overnight as north winds
increase to near 20 knots. conditions will gradually improve on
saturday into sunday, though remain choppy with north to northeast
winds of 10 to 15 knots. another cold front will cross the lake
sunday night into monday, ushering in north to northwest winds of 15
to 20 knots, and another round of small craft advisories will likely
be needed. winds will become light and variable on tuesday with
high pressure overhead.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lez146>148.

&&

$$

discussion...kahn
aviation...26
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
070
fxus63 kiwx 022324
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
724 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

.key messages...

- primarily dry conditions expected for the coming week.

- cool on saturday with highs in the 60s. trending slightly
warmer sunday.

- very crisp tuesday morning with lows in the 30s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

a cold front continues to slowly slide east this afternoon, with
plenty of its cloud cover lingering at this time. sharp clearing is
noted across northern il which should set the stage for
clearing skies this evening through the night. this loss of
insulation will sent temperatures into the low-to-mid 40s
tonight. despite the clear skies and recent rainfall, a
northeast wind near 5 knots may be just enough to prevent
widespread fog from developing. yet patchy ground fog is
certainly plausible, as is common for october.

high pressure shifts east through the weekend and a low races
through interior ontario as sunday progresses. a trailing (and dry)
cold front drops through sunday afternoon, resulting in a late-day
cooling trend into the 60s downwind of lake michigan. any rain
showers appear confined to central michigan and points north. in the
wake of this front, a reinforcing dose of cold, canadian high
pressure descends over the midwest. centered overhead tuesday
morning, morning lows are on track to be in the mid-to-upper 30s.

this episode of cold air is shortlived as upper-level flow remains
progressive and ridging resumes late-week pushing afternoon highs
into the low-70s.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 724 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

no flight concerns for the next 24 hours and beyond as high
pressure brings drier air and light winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
705
fxus63 kdtx 030013
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
813 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

.key messages...

- cool tonight with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

- a pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s on saturday
and around 70 degrees on sunday. a low chance of showers late
saturday night into sunday morning.

- dry weather continues early next week, with some frost potential
early tuesday morning.

&&

.aviation...

lingering cu field supported by the northwest wind and cooler
airmass should gradually decrease post sunset as high pressure moves
into lower michigan. not anticipating any fog tonight as there is
very little support for it in the models as a dry airmass is in
place. the persistent flow off the lake make allow for pockets of
stratocu during the overnight hours. conditions expected to remain
vfr. winds become northeast after sunrise and eventually east to
southeast tomorrow afternoon with the progression of the high
pressure with prevailing vfr skies.

d21/dtw convection... thunderstorms are not forecast tonight or
saturday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less saturday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 pm edt fri oct 2 2026

discussion...

cool post-frontal northwest flow has rapidly steepened lapse rates
through 850mb which with saturated surface conditions have resulted
in healthy strato-cu development early this afternoon that has
extended in through the tri-cities and thumb. loss of diurnal heating
and anemic moisture in the mid-levels will continue to erode cloud
cover through the evening. this will lead to clear skies overnight
and will allow temperatures to quickly drop into the upper 30s for
portions of the northern tri- cities and interior of the thumb, and
low to mid 40s elsewhere. additionally, north to north-east flow
brings a low chance for stratus development by the mid-morning hours
given this lake influence, most favorable across the thumb.

surface high pressure will be centered over southern michigan
tomorrow morning and will depart into the continental northeast by
tomorrow evening. this will bring dry weather with some afternoon cu
development along with slightly below normal temperatures to near
normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 60s. generally
benign conditions exist for the remainder of the forecast window.
there will be some lower-end rain chances centered sunday morning as
a mid-level wave travels from the northern plains into the great
lakes. this will bring the chance for brief and light rain showers
most favorable north of i-94. high pressure to then fill in behind
the wave on monday and tuesday, bringing dry conditions under mostly
sunny skies. outside of a very weak signal for a second chance for
brief light rain showers late wednesday into early thursday morning
with the arrival of a second glancing mid-level wave, very limited
forcing provides very little chances for any meaningful
precipitation chances at least through the middle of next week.

marine...

gusty northwest winds between 15 and 25 kt continue into this
evening, then diminish quickly overnight as high pressure builds in.
a small craft advisory remains in effect for parts of the southern
lake huron nearshore waters into tonight as the heightened wave
field gradually dissipates. light winds then carry through saturday
and saturday night as the high passes over lake huron. the next low
pressure system is slated to track across northern ontario on
sunday. this brings increasing southerly wind during the morning
which then veers to northwest by late in the day in the wake of the
cold front. some light showers may accompany the front, but the main
marine concern will be increasing gustiness to the post-frontal
flow, with potential for gusts to or above 30 kt. current model
guidance advertises less than a 20% probability for gales across
northern lake huron sunday night. gusty northwest flow persists
through monday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lhz441-442.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...am
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.