Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
960
fxus61 kcle 182355
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
755 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) lingering showers and gusty winds expected through tonight.
a wind advisory remains in effect through 6 pm this evening.

2) mainly dry with isolated showers possible on friday. widespread
rain chances sunday and monday. below average temperatures are
expected to stick around.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure system will continue to exit to the northeast while the
upper level trough glides east across the region this evening.
winds aloft remain between 35-45 knots this afternoon which will
maintain breezy to gusty conditions, particularly along the
lake erie lakeshore in northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. area sustained winds remain generally westerly at
20-30 mph with occasional gusts of 35-40 mph. have maintained
the wind advisory for portions of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through 6 pm this evening. winds will decrease
through tonight as high pressure enters from the west.

aside from the gusty conditions, a surface cold front will
continue to exit to the east this afternoon. some isolated
showers will remain possible along and east of the i-71 corridor
through this evening.

key message 2...
any lingering showers will diminish later this evening as high
pressure begins to build across the region from the west. expect for
friday and saturday to remain primarily dry. however, some isolated
afternoon showers may develop across inland portions of the forecast
area on friday.

more widespread rain showers will come sunday night into monday as
another low pressure system moves through the upper ohio valley on
monday. latest nbm probabilities for 1.50+ inches rainfall sunday
night into monday generally range between 50-60% for the majority of
the forecast area. with that, wpc has included the western two-
thirds of our forecast area in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall during that timeframe.

cooler conditions expected this weekend into early next week behind
today`s cold front. highs will generally rise into the mid to upper
70s each afternoon with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions are expected through the taf period. clouds in
the 4 to 5 kft range will continue to filter through the region
during the evening hours in the cold advection regime. with
nighttime building, clouds and winds will diminish to clear
skies and light west winds. for friday, a trough over the
region, northeast of high pressure, will allow for clouds return
with daytime heating, again in the 4 to 5 kft range. some very
isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible friday
afternoon/early evening, but confidence in anything occurring at
or near a terminal is very low at this time to include in a
taf. west to northwest winds will pick up during the afternoon
hours and gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be possible at the
terminals.

outlook...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible saturday afternoon/early evening. non-vfr would be
limited to just the strongest showers/storms. additional
showers and storms are possible sunday afternoon through tuesday
morning with the potential for more non-vfr coverage.

&&

.marine...
the low water advisory has been cancelled and the gale warning will
be allowed to expire at 6 pm edt this evening. will continue to
reevaluate the small craft advisory and beach hazards statement
already in effect based on trends in observations and our official
forecast. a trough lingers over lake erie through friday as its
parent and potent low wobbles ene`ward from southern qc to nb.
wsw`erly to wnw`erly winds initially around 20 to 30 knots ease to
around 10 to 15 knots by midnight tonight. waves initially as large
as 5 to 10 feet with occasional 12 footers should subside to 4 feet
or less by midnight tonight and then to 3 feet or less by daybreak
friday. on friday, wsw`erly to wnw`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots,
flirting with 20 knots at times are expected. waves of mainly 3 feet
or less with occasional 4 footers are forecast.

during friday night through saturday night, a high pressure ridge
overspreads lake erie slowly and from the west. this ridge should be
accompanied by primarily w`erly to nw`erly winds around 10 to 15
knots. waves of 3 feet or less are expected. on sunday, the ridge
will crest e`ward across lake erie and be accompanied by variable
winds around 5 to 10 knots. these winds are expected to trend
onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake
breeze development. waves should be 2 feet or less.

during sunday night through monday, a trough should affect lake erie
as a deepening low wobbles ene`ward from the mid ms valley toward
central ny. winds should become se`erly to e`erly and freshen to
around 15 to 25 knots sunday night before backing toward n`erly and
easing slightly to around 10 to 20 knots on monday. waves as large
as 3 to 5 feet are expected. a small craft advisory will likely be
needed. n`erly to w`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should impact
lake erie monday night through tuesday as a ridge builds from the
north-central united states and vicinity. waves of mainly 3 feet or
less are forecast, but occasional 4 footers are expected monday
night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
007-009.
beach hazards statement until 2 am edt friday for ohz010>012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement until 2 am edt friday for paz001.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez142>144.
small craft advisory until 2 am edt friday for lez145>149.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
477
fxus63 kiwx 182317
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
717 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

.key messages...

- continued seasonably cool into next week.

- light rain chances return on saturday. more widespread
moderate rain is expected on sunday into monday. a few
thunderstorms will be possible.

- periodic rainfall chances into the middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1254 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

below normal temperatures with periodic chances of
showers/t-storms will be the theme into next week with a low
pressure system centered over central canada providing cyclonic
flow into the great lakes region. this will continue to allow
for the synoptic cooling and weak disturbances to push eastward
into the area along with surface dew points remaining mainly in
the mid 50s to low 60s, which will keep low temperatures in the
same range over the next several days. a few remaining
sprinkles possible this evening with low clouds in place in the
wake of yesterday`s system but will start to give away to some
clearing with drier mid level flow from the north.

the next chances of showers arrives on saturday with a weak
shortwave but the better chances for a more widespread and
hearty rainfall will begin on sunday and continue into monday
as a stronger shortwave pushes eastward through the cyclonic
flow aloft. a few rumbles of thunder will be possible mainly for
the southern half of the cwa with a bit better instability
further south and pwats around 1.7 inches making for any
convective showers/storms fairly efficient. wpc currently has
precipitation amounts of 1 to 2 inches over our cwa for sunday
into monday. a break in precipitation will return tuesday but
looks like another disturbance pushes into the region on
wednesday with another shot of showers/storms.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 714 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

generally tranquil conditions during this taf period. wind
speed and gusts will follow a diurnal trend with gusts near 20
kts friday afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
833
fxus63 kdtx 190357
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1157 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

.key messages...

- dry friday with scattered showers and isolated general
thunderstorms on saturday.

- additional rainfall chances focused across lower michigan sunday
evening into monday.

- slightly below normal temperatures are expected into the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

there remains some potential for additional pockets of vfr cloud to
funnel through at times overnight as a minor mid level wave lifts
through. daytime heating will again offer a supportive environment
for a scattered to broken coverage of vfr cumulus for the afternoon
hours friday. this will occur within gusty westerly conditions, as
deeper mixing again yields gust potential into the 25 knot range for
the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5 kft this evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 346 pm edt thu jun 18 2026

discussion...

cooler cyclonic flow over the area today with an 115+ knot upper
level jet extending out of the pacnw through the eastern great lakes.
this has supported a high coverage of clouds across the area this
afternoon. steepened lower level lapse rates have also supported
gusty winds to around 35 to 40 mph. gusty conditions should ease this
evening as stable conditions develop with the inbound surface high
pressure and the stronger lower level jet winds move off to the east.
while the environment is lacking deeper moisture, the northwest flow
and weak caa presents low end pops for possible isolated shower
activity through remainder of the afternoon. a cloud clearing trend
is expected tonight bring mostly clear skies and lows down into the
low/mid 50s.

surface high pressure with low amplitude low level ridge will lead
to dry conditions for tomorrow. less cloud cover and slightly warmer
850 mb temperatures should lead afternoon high temperatures
generally around the mid 70s. a weak shortwave is progged to pass
within the northwest flow of the broader trough and arrive locally
on saturday. slight improvement in moisture with marginally improved
instability and lapse rates should be enough to support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. the better environment for
thunderstorms looks focused north of i-69.

stable conditions will mark the start of sunday as a convective
system organizes upstream around the mid-mississippi river forced by
a mid-level wave passing through the central plains, strong low
level jet, and moisture convergence. the northern periphery of this
mcs looks to clip lower michigan sunday evening into monday.
forecast shows weak lapse rates and little to no instability, so a
severe weather threat should be limited with heavy rainfall being
the main focus. there is still room for a shift in the rainfall
axis, but heaviest rainfall is currently forecast to set up across
in and oh. temperature forecast over the weekend into next week
looks somewhat steady with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in
the 50s.

marine...

breezy west flow persists for the remaining daylight hours in the
wake of a departing low pressure system. wind gusts ranging between
20-30 knots will be likely and small craft advisories remain in
place through tonight. a ridge of high pressure will build in late
tonight through tomorrow morning which will relax the pressure
gradient and will reduce wind speeds and gust potential. an upper-
level disturbance quickly passes through in the morning and early
afternoon which will bring chances for rain showers and a low chance
for an embedded thunderstorm. a weak area of high pressure will then
hold through the weekend before low pressure arrives over the ohio
valley early monday morning, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances
along with elevated wind gusts, particularly across the southern
great lakes through lake erie and lake st. clair.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.