Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
796
fxus61 kcle 050705
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
305 am edt fri jun 5 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1.) one last dry day and continued warming.

2.) showers and storm chances return friday night through early saturday
night.

3.) upper level ridge builds in through the middle of next week with
more summer-like warmth.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a bit more warming today with return flow into the region and 850mb
temperatures climbing into the upper teens. with sun and a dry
ground, this will translate to widespread upper 80s across the
region ahead of a cold front that will be approaching from the west
for the first rain chances in several days beginning friday
night.

key message 2...
flow aloft will become cyclonic tonight with a surface prefrontal
trough moving through, sparking the first chances for showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms in several days. during the overnight
period, instability will be hard to come by, and elevated, making
thunderstorms not expected on a scale more than isolated despite an
increase in the low level flow. different story into saturday with
some daytime heating aiding in the development of instability that
will end up closer to the surface. some risk for severe
thunderstorms here with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kts to go with
around 1000j/kg cape and increases in surface/low level dewpoints.
in the end, damaging winds will be the greatest threat for saturday
with the cold front coming through late saturday into saturday
night, taking the pops with it by sunday morning.

key message 3...
quick return to upper level ridging early next week with
temperatures on the rise again and a two day dry period before
getting back into pops midweek with another trough aloft. heat will
begin to build with another upper level ridge into the end of next
week with what may be considered the first hot and humid weather of
the season as dewpoints could eclipse the 70f mark.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
vfr is expected to persist through the bulk of the taf period. a
weakening cluster of convection will push east towards
terminals late friday night into early saturday morning, though
anticipate much of the convection to remain near the lakeshore.
for now, have included prob30 lines for ktol and kcle to time
out any tsra impacts roughly between 04z/sat and 12z/sat.

light southwesterly winds 5-8 knots tonight will increase to
12-15 knots by friday afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots
possible. a lake breeze will likely shift winds west-northwest
at keri friday afternoon.

outlook...limited non-vfr in a cluster of weakening showers and
thunderstorms friday night into early saturday. non-vfr possible
again saturday afternoon and evening as thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.marine...
southwesterly winds generally remain between 5-15 knots through
this evening before increasing to the 15-20 tonight range
tonight through saturday morning. a cold front will move across
the lake on saturday evening allowing for winds to turn
northerly while decreasing to 10 knots or less by sunday
morning as high pressure builds overhead. light and variable
flow is expected as the high remains in control on sunday. winds
will favor an easterly component monday while remaining in the
5-15 knots range ahead of an approaching low pressure system
that will enter the upper ohio valley by mid-week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...13
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
575
fxus63 kiwx 050605
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
205 am edt fri jun 5 2026

.key messages...

- 40-60% chances for showers and thunderstorms friday afternoon
and evening. isolated severe weather possible with damaging
wind and large hail as the main threats. low confidence.

- keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on
saturday! increasingly humid with 60-80% chances for showers
and thunderstorms saturday afternoon and evening. there is a
slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) with damaging
winds and large hail as the main threats. medium confidence.

- dry and warm early next week with continued highs in the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

quiet, dry weather persists today. with high pressure having drifted
from being overhead yesterday to now over the mid atlantic today,
high clouds are drifting in from the west and winds have turned
southerly ahead of a big pattern shift in the coming days. southerly
surface flow is aiding in increased waa, with highs expected to be
in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. a tightening pressure
gradient will allow for gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon.

a mid level trough will ride the edge of the upper level ridge
centered over the central conus on friday, bringing our first of
several opportunities for rain in at least 7-10 days. as this trough
moves through on friday afternoon and evening, chances for rain and
storms increase to 40-60%. some models have storms clipping the
indiana-michigan state line as early as 15-18z tomorrow, while
others hold off in favor of a 21-00z start time. with better
moisture not arriving into our area until later in the day
(dewpoints 55-60), i lean more in the favor of the later timeframe
but we will also have to monitor and see what develops in illinois
friday morning and if it clips our northern counties in the early
afternoon. spc does have a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1
of 5) along and north of us 30 on friday, although confidence in
severe weather occuring is low. given a fairly unidirectional
vertical wind profile, 0-6km shear will only be about 20 kts. with
weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or
line segments. moderate dcape of around 500-700 j/kg and steep low
level lapse rates of 8-9 c/km will support isolated instances of
damaging winds and hail. with pwats around 1.5 to 2", even if storm
clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient rainfall
producers with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr.

keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on saturday!
ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be
possible saturday afternoon and evening. our area will be well into
the warm sector saturday with breezy southwesterly winds; dewpoints
will increase to the upper 60s and maybe even low 70s in response to
a strong southwest llj ramping up friday evening and into saturday.
increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the low
to mid 80s) to support sbcape of up to 2500 j/kg. how much
instability we get will be highly conditional on the amount of
clearing that occurs saturday morning and early afternoon. some
models keep lingering rain/storms/clouds across our area saturday
morning, which would limit how unstable the environment can become.
nevertheless, some amount of destabilization should occur saturday
afternoon afternoon after 18z, with chances for strong to severe
storms highest between 18z-03z. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather is in place across northwest ohio, with a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the forecast area. severe
potential is greatest in nw ohio because this area will have the
longest time to heat up and destabilize saturday as the cold front
takes its time moving in from northwest to southeast. confidence is
medium in severe weather occuring (given morning uncertainty) but
the environment will be more favorable than friday. steep low level
lapse rates of 9c/km and 0-6km shear of 35-40 kts will support
damaging winds and large hail as the main threats.

it will be dry again as high pressure builds in on sunday and monday
across the great lakes. summer-like temperatures in the mid to upper
80s persist throughout all of next week with additional daily
periodic chances for rain/storms by midweek.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 155 am edt fri jun 5 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals this period
outside of thunderstorm activity where we could see brief drops
to mvfr/ifr. upstream observations indicate sct/bkn cloud decks
around 5-6kft as of this writing, in addition to clouds around
25-30kft. high pressure continues to sink southeastward through
the period, with a trough approaching from the west. tightening
pressure gradient and decent mixing this afternoon should give
us sw winds gusting to around 25-30kts at times. otherwise, as
the trough moves through this afternoon into the overnight,
we`ll see isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. within
thunderstorms, mvfr/ifr conditions are possible. it`s possible
we see scattered showers ahead of the main trough (15z-18z) at
ksbn with waa ongoing and strengthening moisture advection, so
added vcsh for that time. more impactful showers and any t-storm
activity looks to hold off until at least 18z, more likely 20z
(models are quite variable). intermittent activity occurs then
through the overnight. handled with prob30s for t-storm activity
given lower confidence. even less certainty at kfwa as models
suggest the precipitation/storm activity looks to struggle with
eastward progression from ksbn. have vcsh starting around 21z,
but it looks like more impactful weather and storm development
is more likely after 00z (models suggest development nearly
overhead around 1z). have vcts starting at 00z with prob 30s to
handle any storms.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
531
fxus63 kdtx 050748
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
348 am edt fri jun 5 2026

.key messages...

- periods of scattered to numerous rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.

- additional showers and storms possible early saturday afternoon.
isolated storms may be strong to severe, capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- a hot and stormy pattern is becoming increasingly likely during the
middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

quiet start to early june comes to an end today as a series of
shortwaves begin to break down the existing ridge. a more active
pattern is already observed upstream where clusters of convection
are ongoing: one cluster from southern iowa to northeast kansas and
another over south dakota. the leading wave is associated with a low
level trough and strong low level jet that will draw moisture
initially into the saginaw valley early this afternoon and the rest
of se michigan this evening. daytime impact will be an increase in
cloud cover with highs near 80 degrees for the saginaw valley versus
mid-upper 80s in the detroit metro area where sunshine is expected
for most of the day.

moisture transport peaks between approximately 21z-06z tonight (5pm-
2am), tied to the passage of a convective vort max and a lagging
trough axis. remnants of the midwest convection reach the saginaw
valley mid to late afternoon, but ultimately outpace the theta-e
axis and lose convective vigor given only a few hundred j/kg of
mucape available. coverage then increases this evening, especially
north of i-69, as the trough approaches. poor lapse rates limit
updraft strength, while models pull the two waves out of phase to
limit organized convective potential this evening and overnight.
that said, mechanical mixing of the strong low level jet winds could
result in gusty showers/thunderstorms (40+ mph). other factor to
consider is heavy rainfall potential, which will be focused again
over the saginaw valley/thumb as the trough passes overhead.
consistent hi-res signal for over an inch of rain north of i-69
before expanding across the rest of se michigan late in the evening.
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across the north.

much lower predictability exists heading into the overnight hours
and saturday, mainly in terms of thunderstorm initiation and coverage.
first feature in question is the south dakota convective wave, and
how that may interfere with otherwise expected subsidence/drying
aloft. there is also plenty of nocturnal convective activity being
triggered in the hi-res guidance, which is often not handled well by
models. uncertainty compounds saturday morning with the arrival of a
deep synoptic wave, which quickly steepens lapse rates to 6.5-7.0
c/km and spreads a broad region of ascent over se michigan. most
solutions project the wave to reach the detroit metro region around
peak heating (early-mid afternoon), which will be the favored
time/location for any convective redevelopment. the wave also
supplies plenty of deep layer shear, supporting organized convection
potential if enough instability stays in tact to sustain strong
updrafts. latest trends have pushed the greatest thunderstorm coverage
south of the ohio border, although the conditionality of this setup
keeps se michigan within a marginal risk for severe weather saturday.
large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

heights then begin to rise rapidly saturday night as longwave
ridging re-establishes itself. dry weather thus returns for sunday-
monday while the ridge axis builds overhead. h5 heights push into
the climatological 90th percentile and remain there throughout the
week, leading to well above normal temperatures. ensemble
interquartile max t values range from upper 80s to low 90s by late
next week alongside unobstructed gulf return flow. thunderstorm
chances thus accompany increasingly warm and muggy conditions for
much of the work week, with heavy rainfall potential already
highlighted in the day 5 excessive rainfall outlook.

&&

.marine...

warm southerly flow will keep wind speeds in check (mainly up around
20 knots) today due to the increased low level stability. a surface
low tracking through the central great lakes this evening will bring
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. expected
light, mostly westerly winds on saturday. a weak cold front will
sink southward late in the day, serving as the focal point for
scattered, potentially marginally severe thunderstorms, with the
highest probability over lake st. clair and lake erie. very light
northeast flow and dry conditions will follow for saturday night and
sunday. warm weather returns early next week, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms on tuesday.

&&

.hydrology...

clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to track west to
east across southeast mi this afternoon through tonight. another
round of showers and storms is possible early saturday afternoon.
most areas will receive a quarter inch of rainfall or less, but
there will be the potential for localized areas (mainly north of i-
69) to see up to 1.50 inches. the extended period of dry conditions
recently suggests the potential for flooding is low, but isolated
flooding will be possible if any of the higher amounts affect the
typical flood prone locations in urban areas.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1148 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

aviation...

se mi is between mid atlantic high pressure and plains low pressure
that sets up increasing low to mid level moisture transport into the
area late tonight and friday. vfr under scattered to broken cirrus
and light south wind persist until clouds thicken and lower after
sunrise as the first sign of the inbound moisture. this is followed
by showers initially toward mbs which spread slowly southward and
eastward during the afternoon into friday evening. the best time
window for thunderstorms is mid afternoon from mbs to fnt while the
strongest activity takes until closer to 00z friday evening to reach
dtw. mvfr ceiling is likely friday night in the rain-cooled but humid
air trailing the shower/storm pattern.

d21/dtw convection... showers are likely with a chance of embedded
thunderstorms friday evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms friday evening.

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less friday afternoon and night.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......sf
hydrology....mv/tf
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.