Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1150 am est mon nov 2 2026

...18z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
made a few adjustments to pops for today to keep the potential
for light showers across the area, especially across the
southwest counties, but no other changes were needed and the
remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) high pressure will continue to drift east off the mid-atlantic
coast through tomorrow with gradually warming temperatures expected.
light, scattered rain shower are possible throughout today.

2) widespread showers arrive on wednesday as a low pressure system
moves into the region. lingering showers are expected into thursday,
especially across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure that is slowly drifting east and off the mid-atlantic
coast will continue to influence the area through tuesday. a
dominant southerly flow has developed across the area as a result of
the positioning of the high, which has allowed for an increase in
both moisture and warm air advection into the area. temperatures
across the area this morning remain mild with most locations in the
mid to upper 50s with dewpoints in the 40s. these mild temperatures
will translate to highs today climbing into the mid to upper 60s.
with increasing moisture in the entire column, a push of mid-level
energy across the area today may be enough for light rain showers to
develop and to reach the surface instead of evaporating. overall
coverage will remain scattered with the highest confidence across
western counties. by tonight, the mid-level energy will shift east
and allow for widespread dry conditions to arrive for tuesday.
tuesday will see temperatures well above normal as a warm front
lifts north across the area and temperatures surge into the 70s.
some areas will flirt with record setting warmth on tuesday.

key message 2...
a notable shift in the weather pattern will occur on wednesday as a
deepening trough over the central us moves a surface low into the
region. this system will move a preliminary cold front east across
the area on wednesday, providing a focal point for widespread
showers to develop. given the persistent moisture advection into the
area, rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25-0.5 inches of
precipitation. given the prolonged dry period leading into this
system, basins should be able to handle this amount of precipitation
without problem, however in areas that see heavy rainfall there may
be locally increased runoff. in addition, given a strong llj of 40-
50 knots pushing into the area and decent upper level support from
the vort max and jet, there is a non-zero chance for thunder
wednesday afternoon but no severe weather is expected.

on thursday, showers will gradually taper from west to east before a
lake effect processes take over and keep shower chances across
portions of the snowbelt into friday. additional shower activity is
possible into the weekend as a series of upper level troughs pushes
east through the region. temperatures are expected to remain above
normal through the middle of the week before dipping closer to
normal by friday into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through friday/...
vfr to mvfr ceilings are expected for this taf period. taf
sites across neoh and nwpa are seeing vfr ceilings. taf sites
across nwoh are seeing mvfr ceilings. the mvfr ceilings for nwoh
will continue through the evening hours. some mvfr ceilings may
try to move into cle and cak during the evening hours. all sites
will return to vfr ceilings for tuesday morning. winds will be
southerly 5 to 12 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots
this afternoon and again midday on tuesday.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will continue to drift east off the mid-atlantic coast
through tuesday, allowing for a persistent south-southwesterly flow
through that time. winds today will be 5-12 knots before increasing
to 10-15 knots on tuesday. given the offshore flow, waves along the
southern lakeshore will remain 2 feet or less. on wednesday, a low
pressure system will move into the region, pushing a cold front east
late wednesday into thursday. winds on wednesday will be south-
southeasterly at 15-20 knots before shifting to southwesterly
wednesday night and weakening to 10-15 knots behind the front. a
brief small craft advisory may be needed wednesday given the
stronger winds, however given the marginal forecast at this point,
confidence in needing a headline is low. the southwest winds will
persist through thursday before a surface trough lingers on friday
and winds become northwesterly at 10-15 knots. this late week period
may need an additional small craft advisory if wind speeds trend
closer to 20 knots in future updates.

&&

.climate...
daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...77
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
556 am est mon nov 2 2026

.key messages...

- light rain showers continue at times through this evening
(20-30% chances).

- much better chances for rain (80-100%) arrive late tuesday
night into early wednesday.

- highs will be well into the 70s on tuesday with breezy
conditions but otherwise highs remain around 60 the rest of
the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 120 am est mon nov 2 2026

scattered, light rain showers/drizzle will persist through today as
broad 295-300k isentropic upglide continues. this isentropic ascent
is very gentle though and we are still battling some dry air
concerns so there will be plenty of rain-free areas as well and have
maintained just broad-brushed 20 pop`s through this evening. best
chances appear to be east of i-69 late this afternoon into the
evening as models indicate another weak shortwave rippling through
the area. this wave exits overnight and isentropic surfaces orient
more parallel to increasing southwest flow. therefore, expect dry
conditions to return late tonight through most of the day tue.
overcast skies today yield highs only in the low/mid 60s. tue high
temp forecast is tricky. strong sw flow/waa develops ahead of
approaching trough but cloud cover is still a question. some peaks
of sun are likely, especially in our se, and this could push highs
to near record territory (76). tempered nbm highs downward a bit as
they are likely biased by the last few weeks of very warm/sunny
conditions. if full sun materializes then it`s possible but expect
at least some clouds given degree of moisture streaming into
the region.

very few changes regarding tue night`s frontal passage. upper trough
and low level cyclone will be rapidly lifting and occluding over the
upper midwest late tue. this combined with surface low track toward
lake superior will support a healthy midlevel dry slot moving into
the area wed morning and bringing a quick end to rain. maintained
categorical pop`s out of respect for the moisture advection but
westward displacement of better mid/upper level dynamics and
southward displacement of any meaningful instability will likely
leave our area with just some brief, light rain showers late tue
night into wed morning. rainfall amounts around 0.25" with no
thunder anticipated. while steady/moderate rain ends wed afternoon,
a prolonged period of general cyclonic flow is expected to develop
wed night into next week as several upper lows pinwheel through the
great lakes. this supports periodic low chances for light rain,
particularly downwind of still warm lake michigan. the only
exception looks to be a brief break in between systems on sat.
temps return to more seasonable values to end the week but still
trending slightly above normal with highs around 60 and lows
around 40.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 556 am est mon nov 2 2026

satellite and observing stations indicate mvfr ceilings are
steadily spreading north this morning; quickly closing in on
ksbn. observations in central in and central il show ifr
ceilings in place; perhaps not completely out of the realm of
possibility for our local area for at least a brief time. weak
ascent through an increasingly saturated atmosphere still lends
the opportunity for passing light showers or sprinkles today.
the low level jet strengthens tonight ahead of a mid-latitude
cyclone moving into the midwest. llws may be a concern through
most of tuesday morning before the llj eases in the afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
451 am est mon nov 2 2026

.key messages...

- mostly cloudy and mild today and tuesday. near record
high temperatures tuesday.

- mild conditions continue wednesday with increasing potential for
light rain.

&&

.aviation...

southerly warm advection develops this morning as low pressure lifts
into northern minnesota. increasing moisture within this flow
results current mid-cloud steadily lowering late morning-afternoon
towards low vfr and eventually mvfr ceilings by evening. current of
low level moisture is directed into central michigan late this
evening with the northern taf sites residing along its periphery. as
such, a period of ifr remains possible so maintained inherited
tempos. some pockets of drizzle/light rain are possible mainly late
evening/tonight however coverage and intensities currently don`t
warrant mention in tafs. developing warm sector expands over se mi
by tuesday am supporting breezier conditions but increased mixing
which should allow for a return toward vfr skies.

for dtw...ceilings will drop below 5000 feet early afternoon as
elevated portions of a warm front lift into se michigan. ceilings
will then continue to lower to mvfr by evening. lower potential to
reach ifr given drier resident air and main moisture directed
further north. drizzle/light rain will also be plausible, but is not
expected to cause any restrictions. ceiling improvements expected by
tuesday morning.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 ft early afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 303 am est mon nov 2 2026

discussion...

initial stages of a more significant period of increasing upper
heights expected over the next 48 hours will occur today, as
shortwave energy overhead this morning vacates the region. some
pockets of very light showers or virga evident on radar associated
with this wave and accompanying deeper mid level moisture will also
end. organizing low pressure system as substantial height falls
occur across the plains will then draw a warm frontal boundary
across the region late today into tonight. overall, moisture quality
remains quite limited despite some increase across the lower levels,
suggesting simply a lower end potential again for some spotty light
showers/sprinkles as broader ascent occurs along the advancing
frontal slope. otherwise, main story early this week remains the
perpetuation of very mild conditions held under this pattern. the
elevated mean thickness field combined with a strengthening pattern
of warm air advection maintains above average temperatures thru at
least wednesday. warmest conditions expected tuesday, with a peak in
the advective process within deepening southwest flow ensuring 850
mb temperatures push into the lower teens. this will bring afternoon
temperature to near record levels, with highs solidly in the mid
70s. potential for minimum temperature tuesday night to hold in the
60s.

closed upper level circulation will gradually lift into the upper
missisippi valley midweek. this will draw an attendant lead cold
front through lower michigan wednesday evening. period of stronger
moisture transport as greater height falls edge into the region
ahead of the front, along with possible shortwave energy embedded
within the flow, will bring increasing potential for light shower
production during the daylight period. frontal passage will provide
a secondary focus by late in the day. outgoing forecast maintains a
high likelihood for light rain, but with rainfall totals generally
under quarter of an inch as the best forcing holds to the northwest
while more meaningful instability holds across the ohio valley.

occluding low pressure system centered over lake superior at 12z
thur morning will continue to weaken as the entire circulation
pivots across the region through friday. generally milder conditions
remain within the immediate post-frontal environment thursday,
before the cooling trend brings a more seasonable thermal profile by
friday and next weekend. general increasing in upward vertical
motion as the upper trough pivots through will maintain at least
lower chances for light rain development during this time.

marine...

low pressure coming out of the four corners region will lift
northeast into the western great lakes late tuesday. this will lead
to increasing southerly winds over the central great lakes, with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected over the open waters of lake huron
tuesday and wednesday. warm air (lower teens at 850 mb) should keep
mixing depths in check, but brief isolated gusts above 30 knots cab
not be ruled. enough moisture is expected to advect into the great
lakes region to support widespread showers on wednesday. additional
scattered showers are possible on thursday as cold cyclonic flow
behind the cold front kicks in. the low pressure looks to weaken as
it tracks across lake superior and the upper peninsula on thursday.
this should result in northwest to north winds staying under 25
knots thursday night onto friday. however, with the long northerly
fetch and cold air, waves building to 4 feet or greater over the
southern lake huron basin are likely.

climate...

record high max temperatures for november 3rd:

detroit: 76 degrees (set in 2015)
flint: 79 degrees (set in 2015)
saginaw: 74 degrees (set in 2015)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...mr
marine.......sf
climate......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.