Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
446
fxus61 kcle 291729
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
129 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

.what has changed...
precipitation forecast is trending drier sunday into monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from scattered
rain showers tonight, will continue into sunday.

2) better chance for rainfall will come early to mid-week next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the new england coast
will exit the region today as a cold front approaches from the upper
great lakes region. ahead of the cold front, southerly flow
will warm high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, roughly
10-15 degrees above normal for late october. a few sites have
the potential to approach or reach record warm high
temperatures for today. the cold front will arrive in northwest
ohio this afternoon and gradually slide southeast across the
forecast area through late tonight. scattered showers will be
possible along the front with precipitation chances remaining
between 40-50% with locally higher chances (50-70%) across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania where
better upper level support is present. cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder across northwest ohio late afternoon/early evening as
mlcape values of 200-400 j/kg are forecast.

dry weather returns friday and saturday as another area of high
pressure builds across the region. slightly cooler, albeit
still above normal, with highs in the 60s friday and saturday
behind the cold front. chilly overnight lows friday night in the
40s for most and the low to mid 30s in the higher terrain of
northwest pennsylvania.

key message 2...
there remains some discrepancy between medium/long range models
regarding rain chances sunday night into monday. overall, the
forecast is trending drier for that time frame as the aforementioned
surface high centered over the region may inhibit rainfall. the high
pushes to the east early next week as a broad upper trough digs into
the central and eastern conus. models seem to be in a bit better
agreement with this system bringing appreciable rainfall to the
region sometime middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this afternoon with isolated non-vfr
conditions possible along and behind a cold front tonight into
friday morning, mainly at cle/yng/eri with rain showers/low
ceilings. some isolated thunder is possible this evening along
the front, particularly at tol/cle/eri, though low confidence in
coverage precludes mention.

winds are gusty out of the southwest this afternoon, 10 to 12
knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22 knots. winds will shift
towards the west and northwest, then north behind the cold front
late tonight into friday, 7 to 9 knots.

outlook...apart from low rain chances monday into tuesday,
mainly vfr expected through tuesday.


&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 10-20 knots this
morning ahead of a cold front before shifting northwesterly 10-15
knots behind the front. choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet
in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage
through early friday morning. northerly winds diminish to 10-15
knots as high pressure returns on friday before the high exits
to the east on saturday and winds 10 knots or less shift
easterly. offshore flow 10 knots or less will continue into the
early part of next week.

&&

.climate...
we are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth
today. here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on october 29th:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...kahn
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
718
fxus63 kiwx 291815
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
215 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

.key messages...

- 30% to 65% chance of scattered showers this afternoon then
will diminish as the cold front continues to move southeast
through the area.

- cooler this weekend but still above-normal temperatures to
closeout the month of october.

- 20 to 40% chance of showers on halloween, mainly west of the
i-69 corridor.

- active weather still looks likely later for the second half
of the workweek next week.

&&


.discussion...
issued at 153 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

cold frontal boundary currently draped from southwest to
northeast across the northwestern portions of the cwa. current
radar imagery, 2pm edt, does show some scattered rain showers
along it`s spine and look for some increase in activity as the
afternoon goes on and the front moves southeastward. by this
evening the rain showers should become less likely as the
diurnal surface heating decreases. not much in the form of
rainfall amounts is expected but a quick trace to a hundredth
or so will be the most likely outcome where the showers do
occur.

friday will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and cooler with a
more northerly surface flow in place behind the front and weak
synoptic ridging pushing through before a weak trough skirts the
western portions of the cwa on saturday which may bring a few
rain showers to the area. still thinking that any showers will
be light and should not really make a big impact on the
halloween activities. a few showers look to linger into sunday
but again amounts look very light especially with these
disturbances needing to moisten up the surface layer before any
precip can be realized at the surface.

the more impactful weather looks to occur next week, there is
still quite a bit of disagreement in the exact evolution and the
synoptic pattern will be fairly complicated with a split stream
with a southern and northern circulation. it does still appear
that both systems will phase late wednesday through thursday and
this looks to combine and develop a fairly deep trough
circulation over the great lakes region bringing much cooler air
associated with a strong cold front that looks to increase
chances of convection with possibly a strong to severe outcome.
this far out though and with the guidance still at odds this is
not a sure outcome but certainly something to watch in the
coming days when more details can be sorted out.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1259 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

cold frontal passage with accompanying scattered light rain
showers and mvfr cigs moving from northwest to southeast through
this evening. cigs look to improve to vfr after 09z friday for
ksbn and 12z for kfwa. northwesterly winds will veer more
northerly late tonight behind the frontal passage.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
638
fxus63 kdtx 291819
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
219 pm edt thu oct 29 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. no severe weather is anticipated.

- dry this weekend with temperatures some 7 to 12 degrees above
normal.

- warm conditions with humidity will be possible early to middle next
week.

&&

.aviation...

a cold front continues across lower michigan this afternoon, with a
few showers ahead of and along it. some lightning has materialized
with one of the cells, currently tracking east along i-94.
confidence in sustaining this lightning activity is low given the
somewhat unfavorable underlying atmospheric conditions for
instability. however, given the track of this cell, will continue to
monitor as it progresses toward the southern terminals, and make
amendments as-needed. for the remaining terminals (ptk north), a few
isolated showers are still possible through this evening until the
front clears out. thunder potential is even lower across the north.
winds trend higher and veer wnw as the front passes through, along
with a slight uptick in gustiness. upstream observations do favor a
period of mvfr ceilings this evening before skies clear out
aggressively early tonight, followed by a period of skc. some lower
clouds could develop early friday morning for brief mvfr from lake
modification, but dewpoint depressions and gradient winds should
keep fog at-bay.

d21/dtw convection...there is a chance for inbound showers to
produce a few lighting strikes early this evening as a cold front
moves through.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening and low
friday morning.

* low for thunderstorms this evening (mainly 20-22z).

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 316 am edt thu oct 29 2026

discussion...

a cold front will sweep across lower mi today between about 18z and
00z bringing with it a scattered showers and gusty southwesterly
winds. the front was meridional passing through mn and wi today with
strong fgen and a strong low level jet feeding the front. as the
surface low tracks from lake superior tonight up to western quebec by
this afternoon, it will drag the front through the area which will
become increasingly more positively tilted. the fgen weakens and
becomes disorganized and the low level jet lifts northeastward away
from lower mi. a weak mid level wave will move into the area as the
front passes this afternoon which will help daytime heating to bring
very weak instability over the area with mucape up to a couple
hundred j/kg. lapse rates are still in the 6-7 c/km range for the
most part in the narrow moist layer ahead of the front. expectations
are for scattered showers to move into saginaw valley this morning
before spreading south and east across the area with the front
through the afternoon. a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms may
accompany the showers, especially later this afternoon around the
detroit area as the front tries to re-intensify before exiting to
the southeast.

high temperatures will rise into the 70s once more today with the
later frontal passage. the next ridge building in behind the front
out of canada will bring a cooler airmass with 850mb temps down to
around 5c. lows tonight will respond dropping into the mid to upper
30s for most locations away from the detroit heat island. highs
friday will then struggle to hit 60s, which is actually still above
normal for late october. mostly clear skies to start friday night
will allow for a quick drop in temps once again down to around
freezing in the thumb. clouds will start filling back in across the
south so will limit the cooling potential closer to the ohio border
so lows may struggle to drop below 40.

the aforementioned clouds are associated with a southern stream
front lifting into the ohio valley. elevated portions will extend
toward southern mi but strong surface high and overall upper level
height rises will result in strong stability and prevent precip from
making it into southeast mi. this ridging will hold into the new
week keeping temperatures running above normal through this
time. the next system slated to enter the region tuesday.

marine...

strong southwest low level jet tracking through the central great
lakes early this morning. however, the warm advection pattern is
helping to limit mixing depths and stronger winds from reaching the
surface. nonetheless, still expecting gusts at or above 25
knots, most prevalent over central lake huron extending back into
saginaw bay. a small craft advisory remains in early this
afternoon for these wind gusts. offshore flow, however, should keep
waves mostly in the 2 to 4 foot range however.

behind the cold front, wind speeds look to be maximized over
northern lake huron where cold advection is most robust. 850 mb
temps progged to fall below zero thursday night, promoting deeper
mixing and northwest gusts of 25 to 30 knots. confidence is high in
a period of 25 to 30 knot gusts over northern lake huron. high
pressure quickly builds into the central great lakes friday
afternoon, setting up lighter winds and dry conditions over the
weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...drk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.