Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
715 am edt tue aug 18 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes needed with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on wednesday.

2) after a dry period late week, unsettled weather returns to the
region over the weekend with periodic showers and thunderstorms
likely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure will produce dry weather and low humidity today. rain
chances will begin to increase late tonight and especially early
wednesday morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
there`s still some uncertainty with how fast the front moves across
the area and how much moisture is in place across the area during
that time, but there is a decent chance of all locations seeing at
least a brief period of rain at some point on wednesday. there
will likely be some destabilization during the day wednesday,
although the magnitude is uncertain given the early-morning
arrival of rain and clouds and the potential for lower
shower/storm coverage by afternoon. the severe weather threat is
low at this point since the best upper level support may not
arrive until later wednesday.

lingering showers are possible along/south of us-30 into
wednesday night with conditions drying out on thursday.


key message 2...
high pressure will return to the area thursday and friday and
dry weather is expected for the end of the workweek, but the
forecast for the weekend is trending wetter due to an upper
trough pivoting across the great lakes saturday/sunday. periodic
showers and storms are likely over the weekend with the most
widespread showers/storms currently forecast for late saturday
afternoon into saturday evening, although there is still
uncertainty in the coverage/timing due to somewhat low
confidence in the speed/magnitude of the upper trough. based on
latest guidance, it looks the most widespread showers and storms
will be on saturday afternoon/evening with precip possibly
becoming more lake-enhanced on sunday as the trough axis pushes
east across the region. severe weather and heavy rain can`t be
ruled out over the weekend, but confidence is too low to dig
into the potential hazards and timing this early in the forecast
cycle.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions expected through the taf period with scattered to
broken upper-level cirrus. patchy br/fg is through 13z away
from the lake, and is most likely at kmfd and kyng. a line of
showers moves southeast across much of the area after 06z,
though will likely slow down or dwindle before reaching
kcak/kyng. winds will be light from the north or northwest 5 to
8 knots, becoming southwest tonight into tomorrow morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible on wednesday and saturday with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
light and variable conditions are replaced by southwest winds as
high pressure departs to the south. as a cold front approaches
from the northwest, should see southwest winds strengthen to
around 15 knots, with some low potential to briefly reach 20
knots at times, especially tonight and into wednesday morning.
waves build to a peak of 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters of the
central and eastern basin of lake erie wednesday morning. if we
can get 20 knots, there is some potential for 4 ft waves despite
the wind direction being near parallel to the shoreline. will
have to monitor this period for small craft advisory and beach
hazard statements.

additionally, showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tonight into parts of the day wednesday. overall risk is low but
can`t rule out a few stronger wind gust in the 30-40 mph range.

the cold front cross lake erie wednesday evening with winds
quickly becoming northeast wednesday night. high pressure builds
in overhead on thursday and friday, with quiet weather
conditions on lake erie.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
630 am edt tue aug 18 2026

.key messages...

- the next chance of rain arrives tonight and persists through
wednesday.

- severe weather is not expected but a few strong storms may be
possible in far nw in/sw mi late this evening. heavy rain is
also not expected.

- after pleasant conditions thursday and friday, more light rain
is expected on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 115 am edt tue aug 18 2026

overall a pleasant day today as high pressure and theta-e trough
remain over indiana. after a cool start, highs top out around 80f
with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. attention then turns to an upper
low across northern ontario with embedded vort max crossing the
northern great lakes that will send a cold front through the area
late tonight into wed. ahead of this front, a weak shortwave
currently seen on water vapor exiting the black hills will move into
our area this evening. a modest low level theta-e surge is noted as
westerly 850mb flow increases to 25-30 kts. best midlevel lapse
rates remain locked well to our west though and mucape values remain
meager this far east (only 1000-1500 j/kg in our far nw). 0-6km bulk
shear is of course impressive given 50+ kt midlevel jet at the base
of the canadian trough but both instability and forcing appear too
meager to support an organized severe weather threat this far east.
thunderstorms will no doubt enter our nw zones right around 00z and
may carry an isolated threat for gusty winds there in the 00-03z
window but severe weather chances appear very low in our area.
further, diurnally-driven stabilization expected after 03z and the
primary cold front becomes increasingly orphaned from parent trough
by wed morning. vast majority of 00z cam`s end all precip by 06-09z
and indicate only widely scattered redevelopment wed afternoon given
extremely limited instability and poor mid/upper level support. kept
some low chance pop`s going through wed morning but suffice it to
say not expecting any heavy rain or severe weather late tonight or
on wed.

precip exits by wed evening and canadian high pressure returns to
the great lakes through fri. thu and fri will be very pleasant with
highs in the upper 70s, low humidity and mostly sunny skies. the
next midlevel trough and associated cold front then cross late fri
night into sat. healthy cva forcing will likely result in numerous
showers on sat but moisture and instability appear very limited and
severe wx/heavy rain is not expected. this will be followed by
strong northerly flow and even cooler air early next week resulting
in highs only in the mid 70s.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 630 am edt tue aug 18 2026

vfr conditions will persist through most of this period. a cold
front will approach the region tonight and could bring a few
thunderstorms to ksbn in the 02-05z window. confidence in the
coverage of storms is low due to limited moisture return, weak
forcing and poor diurnal timing. will therefore hold with prob30
for now. currently expect just showers at best for kfwa with an
even later arrival. mvfr ceilings are possible at both terminals
within and just after any precip but should be brief given
relatively dry low level conditions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
446 am edt tue aug 18 2026

.key messages...

- dry and seasonable conditions for much of today.

- a low chance of showers and thunderstorms starting late afternoon
across the saginaw valley and thumb, with a greater potential for
showers with isolated thunderstorms for all of southeast michigan
tonight.

- a few lingering showers possible early wednesday, then turning
drier again with temperatures slightly below normal for the end of
the week.

&&

.aviation...

very light winds and clear skies (outside of some high clouds) to
start the day will give way to sct-bkn vfr cu this afternoon and
westerly winds aoa 10 knots. an increasing chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms by early evening across mbs/fnt, with showers
then spreading southeast through the night. confidence in
thunderstorms is too low to include in tafs for now. enough low-
level convergence and moisture to support mvfr clouds developing
late tonight.

d21/dtw convection...very low chance of a thunderstorm tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this afternoon into the
evening, medium tonight, and high tomorrow morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 am edt tue aug 18 2026

discussion...

pleasant again today as the region starts the day under the
influence of departing high pressure. subtle change from yesterday
is the establishment of deep layer westerly flow into southern lower
mi with the departure of said high. this nudges temps up a couple
degrees with highs around the mid 80s as well as a modest increase in
humidity with dewpoints creeping back to the lower to mid 60s.
increasing afternoon cloud cover marks the arrival of a cold frontal
boundary dropping through the great lakes. high res models continue
to key on a prefrontal trough feature sliding over northern lower
mi/lake huron generating isolated to widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms. while the best potential stays north of the
area, the saginaw valley/thumb hold on its southern fringe offering
some late afternoon rain chances, particularly north of m-46. main
window for se mi as a whole however comes late evening-overnight as
the surface cold front reaches the straits/northwestern lake
michigan. frontal boundary expected to generate a healthy coverage of
convection over the western great lakes however local arrival in the
western cwa looking to be between 00-03z. late in the diurnal window
in addition to signal convection outpaces driving instability,
increases uncertainty to what degree thunderstorms can maintain
themselves while crossing the state. areas west of i-75/us- 23 stand
the best chance at thunder given the earlier timing supporting higher
residual cape. while an isolated stronger cell capable of gusty
winds can`t be ruled out due to marginally favorable kinematics
(unidirectional shear around 30kts), the thermodynamic setup (lapse
rates under 6.5 c/km & ~500 j/kg of elevated cape) is unfavorable for
severe storms.

scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunder work across the
area for the rest of the night before the cold front clears to our
south first part of wednesday morning. passage of a secondary cold
front daytime wednesday could generate a few afternoon showers,
though most of se mi stays dry. drier weather holds through the
remainder of the work week as surface high pressure slides directly
across lower mi. unsettled pattern eventually returns friday night
into the weekend as a mid-level shortwave dropping out of the
canadian prairie reaches the great lakes amplifying overhead upper
troughing.

marine...

southwest flow briefly becomes established this morning as high
pressure washes out across the eastern great lakes. winds remain
light for most locations through the afternoon, but localized
stronger gusts around 20 knots will be possible in the saginaw bay
given the more favorable fetch.

more active weather returns this afternoon and evening with the
passage of a cold front. showers and thunderstorms will be likely
with the front as winds veer from southwest to northwest in the wake
of the front. a slight uptick in winds are expected along and behind
the front as cooler conditions filter in. wind gust of 20 to 25
knots will be likely with the frontal passage. high pressure will
then fill back in on thursday, tempering wind speeds for the day.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.