Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
954
fxus61 kcle 042358
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
758 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

.what has changed...
lowered relative humidity for this afternoon and low temperatures
for tonight. tried to indicate two rounds of precipitation
during the friday night/saturday time frame with the first being
after midnight friday night, then showers and thunderstorms
expanding again during the afternoon on saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1.) friday will trend warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

2.) rain chances return friday night then again saturday afternoon
with the potential for scattered severe thunderstorms and locally
heavy rain. the primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.

3.) above normal temperatures return for the middle of next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a high amplitude ridge extends north to the great lakes region.
this ridge will gradually build east through friday with
southwesterly flow increasing. above normal temperatures will
expand eastward across the area with high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s. a lake breeze still looks possible along the
northeast lakeshore and towards erie so temperatures will max
out a few degrees lower in that area. otherwise dewpoints will
gradually start to trend upwards into the mid and upper 50s.

key message 2...
as the ridge axis shifts to the east on friday, active weather
returns with multiple shortwaves and a trough pushing a cold
front south out of canada. the first good push of moisture in
the 850-700mb layer arrives friday evening as a shortwave moves
out of the plains and helps to flatten the ridge aloft. a low
level jet will provide the lift for showers to expand east
across lake erie friday night with a few thunderstorms possible.
this more focused lift shifts east of the area by saturday
morning leaving cloudy skies and decreasing coverage of showers.
however the potential remains for at least a few showers to
continue as a deep moisture axis with pw values of 1.75" will be
located overhead.

the question on saturday will be how well we recover with some
breaks in the clouds and a cold front settling south saturday
afternoon and evening. it looks as if the more favorable axis for
airmass recovery could arrive from the west with 1200-1500 j/kg of
cape returning. the nam shows an area of 2500+ cape but this seems
to be due to the simulated dewpoints of 70 degrees in the model
which are likely too high. it seems the potential for greatest
coverage of storms will be where the instability interacts with
the approaching front which may be across the southern half of
the forecast area. some training of storms may even occur with
nearly unidirectional flow aloft but have at least 50-60 pops
everywhere for saturday afternoon and evening. a 50 knot jet at
500mb ahead of the upper trough swinging through the eastern
great lakes will create a concern for scattered strong to severe
storms and the storm prediction center has the area included in
a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for saturday, generally
between 2-8 pm. damaging winds will be the primary concern along
with locally heavy rain and some potential for training.

key message 3...
temperatures behind this trough will trend cooler
for sunday before a warming trend returns for next week. the trend
will be for ridge to build aloft again although with the
potential for it to be delayed by a trough lifting out of the
plains. it looks like we will be dealing with more summer-like
heat for the middle of next week with temperatures approaching
90 degrees or higher for portions of the area.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr will continue through most of the taf period. there may be
few-sct high-based (above 5k feet) cumulus friday afternoon. a
weakening batch of convection will spread in from the west-
northwest late friday evening/friday night, largely after the
end of the taf period though did include some vcsh at the end of
cle`s 30-hour taf.

a lingering lake breeze along the eastern lake erie shoreline
early this evening will quickly dissipate, allowing light (<7kt)
south- southwest winds to take hold overnight into friday. winds
shift more southwesterly at 10-17kt with gusts to around 25kt
friday afternoon. a lake breeze will likely turn winds more
west-northwest at eri friday afternoon. with more of a gradient
than today, it`s unlikely the lake breeze reaches cle.

outlook...a weakening batch of showers and possibly some
thunderstorms with limited non-vfr moves east-southeast across
the region friday night into early saturday. thunderstorms with
non-vfr likely re-develop saturday afternoon and evening along
and ahead of a cold front. vfr favored sunday and monday. shower
and thunder chances with non-vfr potential return tuesday.

&&

.marine...
a high pressure ridge exits slowly se`ward before a cold front
sweeps se`ward across lake erie this saturday evening through
saturday night. behind the front, another ridge affects lake erie
through tuesday as the embedded high pressure center moves from near
the northern great lakes to near the mid-atlantic states. waves are
expected to be mainly 3 feet or less through the forecast period.

light and variable winds associated with a lake breeze give way to
primarily s`erly to sw`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots this evening
through saturday, ahead of the front. these winds should flirt with
20 knots at times friday afternoon through saturday afternoon. as a
result, occasional 4 to 5 footers are possible friday afternoon
through early saturday evening, especially in open u.s. waters and
on waters of the central and eastern basins. the cold front passage
and subsequent building ridge will cause winds to veer to nw`erly to
n`erly and ease to around 5 to 10 knots saturday evening through
saturday night. on sunday through tuesday, winds around 5 to 15
knots should veer gradually from n`erly to se`erly. however, these
winds should trend onshore each late morning through early evening
due to daily lake breeze development.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...sullivan
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
119
fxus63 kiwx 042322
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
722 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

.key messages...

- 40-60% chances for showers and thunderstorms friday afternoon
and evening. isolated severe weather possible with damaging
wind and large hail as the main threats. low confidence.

- keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on
saturday! increasingly humid with 60-80% chances for showers
and thunderstorms saturday afternoon and evening. there is a
slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) with damaging
winds and large hail as the main threats. medium confidence.

- dry and warm early next week with continued highs in the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

quiet, dry weather persists today. with high pressure having drifted
from being overhead yesterday to now over the mid atlantic today,
high clouds are drifting in from the west and winds have turned
southerly ahead of a big pattern shift in the coming days. southerly
surface flow is aiding in increased waa, with highs expected to be
in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. a tightening pressure
gradient will allow for gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon.

a mid level trough will ride the edge of the upper level ridge
centered over the central conus on friday, bringing our first of
several opportunities for rain in at least 7-10 days. as this trough
moves through on friday afternoon and evening, chances for rain and
storms increase to 40-60%. some models have storms clipping the
indiana-michigan state line as early as 15-18z tomorrow, while
others hold off in favor of a 21-00z start time. with better
moisture not arriving into our area until later in the day
(dewpoints 55-60), i lean more in the favor of the later timeframe
but we will also have to monitor and see what develops in illinois
friday morning and if it clips our northern counties in the early
afternoon. spc does have a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1
of 5) along and north of us 30 on friday, although confidence in
severe weather occuring is low. given a fairly unidirectional
vertical wind profile, 0-6km shear will only be about 20 kts. with
weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or
line segments. moderate dcape of around 500-700 j/kg and steep low
level lapse rates of 8-9 c/km will support isolated instances of
damaging winds and hail. with pwats around 1.5 to 2", even if storm
clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient rainfall
producers with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr.

keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on saturday!
ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be
possible saturday afternoon and evening. our area will be well into
the warm sector saturday with breezy southwesterly winds; dewpoints
will increase to the upper 60s and maybe even low 70s in response to
a strong southwest llj ramping up friday evening and into saturday.
increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the low
to mid 80s) to support sbcape of up to 2500 j/kg. how much
instability we get will be highly conditional on the amount of
clearing that occurs saturday morning and early afternoon. some
models keep lingering rain/storms/clouds across our area saturday
morning, which would limit how unstable the environment can become.
nevertheless, some amount of destabilization should occur saturday
afternoon afternoon after 18z, with chances for strong to severe
storms highest between 18z-03z. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather is in place across northwest ohio, with a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the forecast area. severe
potential is greatest in nw ohio because this area will have the
longest time to heat up and destabilize saturday as the cold front
takes its time moving in from northwest to southeast. confidence is
medium in severe weather occuring (given morning uncertainty) but
the environment will be more favorable than friday. steep low level
lapse rates of 9c/km and 0-6km shear of 35-40 kts will support
damaging winds and large hail as the main threats.

it will be dry again as high pressure builds in on sunday and monday
across the great lakes. summer-like temperatures in the mid to upper
80s persist throughout all of next week with additional daily
periodic chances for rain/storms by midweek.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 721 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

with surface high pressure to the south of the area and mid level
ridging breaking down, our dryness gives way to unsettled weather by
the end of the taf period. vfr conditions do look to maintain
themselves into the midday time frame, but confidence in vfr
conditions maintaining themselves later tomorrow afternoon comes
with lower confidence as showers and thunderstorms enter the nw and
slide southeastward reaching fwa just after taf end time.

winds lighten up this evening, but become excited again on friday
with 20 to 30 kt gusts once again possible.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 pm to 8 pm edt friday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
449
fxus63 kdtx 042303
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

.key messages...

- scattered to numerous rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
friday afternoon into friday night.

- additional showers and storms are likely saturday afternoon.
isolated to scattered storms may be strong to severe, capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- a hot and stormy pattern is becoming increasingly likely during the
middle of next week.

&&

.aviation...

vfr under scattered to broken cirrus and south wind, minus the gust
component, persist tonight across lower mi. the region is between
mid atlantic high pressure and plains low pressure that set up
increasing low to mid level moisture transport into the great lakes
late tonight and friday. mid/high clouds thicken and lower after
sunrise while remaining vfr as the first sign of the inbound
moisture. this is followed by showers initially toward mbs which
spread slowly southward/eastward during the afternoon into friday
evening. the best time window for thunderstorms is early to mid
afternoon from mbs to fnt while the strongest activity takes until
closer to 00z friday evening to reach dtw. mvfr ceiling is likely
friday night in the rain-cooled but humid air trailing the
shower/storm pattern.

d21/dtw convection... showers are likely with a chance of embedded
thunderstorm structures toward 00z saturday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for thunderstorms friday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 330 pm edt thu jun 4 2026

discussion...

warm and dry conditions persist through this evening as the
prolonged ridge setup maintains control for one more night. the
remaining influence of the ridge shrinks off to the southeast friday
morning with deep layer southwest flow ensuing the rest of the day.
remnant capping maintains dry conditions across the whole area
initially, then a shortwave works into mid mi by the early afternoon
which helps erode the cap and ushers in a low-level theta-e ridge. a
cluster of showers is likely to spread into mid mi at the nose of
the llj, then work across the thumb. mid-level lapse rates during
this period are forecast to be weak to mitigate the threat for
severe weather, but as higher boundary layer dew points advect in,
enough instability will allow for scattered embedded thunderstorms.
farther south toward the metro detroit vicinity, the cap holds on
through much of the day and allows temps to climb into the upper 80s
and near 90 with relatively lower rain chances.

higher instability builds in friday evening and overnight ahead of a
surface trough, providing fuel and forcing for additional showers
and thunderstorms to spread across all of se mi. severe chances
during this window remain low given weak lapse rates and weakening
wind shear, but coverage of convection looks to be at its highest
and can`t totally rule out a stronger cell capable of marginal
severe weather. a lull in shower/storm coverage is then likely
saturday morning as a subsidence bubble follows passage of the
surface trough, allowing an inversion to strengthen and provide
higher stability. as daytime heating erodes this cap, steeper low
level lapse rates develop and allow sbcape to push 1000+ j/kg by
early saturday afternoon. a weakly forced cold front will sink
southward across the area and provide the next potential trigger for
convection, some of which may become strong to severe. tall skinny
cape and unidirectional shear point to water-loaded downbursts as
the primary threat, but can`t rule out large hail in any stronger
cores. cooler and more stable air works in saturday evening to bring
an end to rain chances.

sharply rising mid-level geopotential heights provide highly stable
conditions on sunday, offering dry and seasonable summer weather
that extends into monday as well. ensemble guidance is in strong
agreement for an anomalous upper ridge to develop near hudson bay
early next week. our position just upstream of the ridge axis favors
placement within an area of hot and unstable conditions. daily
temperatures will be subject to timing of convection, which carries
high uncertainty at this stage. magnitude of 850mb air mass at
around 15 to 18c will be supportive of highs in the mid to upper
80s, and lower 90s look increasingly likely by late week.

marine...

warm southerly flow will keep wind speeds in check (mainly under 20
knots) due to the increased low level stability through tomorrow. a
surface low tracking through the central great lakes tomorrow
evening with bring numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to the
region. expected light, mostly westerly winds on saturday. a weak
cold front will sink southward late in the day, serving as the focal
point for scattered, potentially marginally severe thunderstorms,
with the highest probability over lake st. clair and lake erie. very
light northeast flow and dry conditions will follow for saturday
night and sunday. warm weather returns early next week, bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms on tuesday.

hydrology...

clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to track west to
east across southeast mi friday afternoon through friday night.
another round of showers and storms is likely saturday afternoon.
most areas will receive a quarter inch of rainfall or less, but
there will be the potential for localized areas to see up to 1.50
inches. the extended period of dry conditions recently suggests the
potential for flooding is low, but isolated flooding will be
possible if any of the higher amounts affect the typical flood prone
locations in urban areas.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...tf
marine.......sf
hydrology....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.