Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 291416
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
916 am est mon dec 29 2025

.synopsis...
strong low pressure lifts north through the great lakes this morning
while dragging a cold front across the area. a trough sets up over
the great lakes behind the front this afternoon and will persist
through the middle of the week. another low pressure system moves
across the great lakes wednesday and will move a cold front across
the local area. high pressure builds overhead friday and lasts
into the weekend.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
930 am update...
confidence continues to increase for impactful lake effect snow
associated with the trough over the area. this morning, opted to
extend the lake effect snow warning to include geauga county in
ohio which could see 6-8 inches. in addition, widespread impacts
are possible with a chance of snow squalls, blowing snow,
reduced visibilities, and falling temperatures. these
deteriorated conditions are also expected to impact this
evenings rush hour, further enhancing impacts. overall snowfall
totals may be marginal in regards to warning criteria, but the
impacts will be there. will continue to monitor incoming 12z
data to determine any additional upgrades or expansions of
winter headlines this afternoon.

previous discussion...
active near term in store behind a strong low pressure system and
strong cold front. multiple hazards including plummeting
temperatures, strong winds and gusts, the potential for snow
squalls, and accumulating lake enhanced snow are possible through
the near term.

cold front will continue tracking east across the local area through
daybreak this morning. scattered rain showers ahead of the front
will exit to the east over the next few hours. behind the cold
front, strong cold air advection will bring much cooler air to the
region. regional temperatures recorded in the 50s to 60s around
midnight will continue to plummet into the 20s near daybreak today.
remaining chilly on tuesday with highs in the 20s. there will likely
be a brief lull in precipitation behind the passing cold front early
this morning and before the strong surface trough moves into the
great lakes.

surface westerly winds and wind gusts will continue to quickly ramp
up through the early morning hours today behind the cold front. wind
advisories and high wind warnings remain in effect across the entire
forecast area through tonight as wind gusts reach between 50 and 60
mph. winds will decrease tonight but breezy conditions and
northwesterly wind gusts 25-35 mph are expected to linger through
tuesday.

the aforementioned surface trough will introduce a window of lake
enhanced snow showers coming off both lake michigan and lake erie
impacting the region into tonight. strong winds will lead to blowing
snow and the potential for snow squalls to develop. latest href
guidance hints at a window late this afternoon/early evening in the
snowbelt where snowfall rates may reach or exceed 1"/hour. whiteout
conditions and difficult travel are possible across the warning area,
especially monday evening when winds will still be gusting between
45 and 50 mph. there remains the potential for inland portions of
geauga/ashtabula county to reach or exceed 6" of snow, though opted
to maintain the winter weather advisory as there is a high likelihood
that total snow accumulations may be negatively impacted by strong
winds and blowing snow.

lake enhanced snow will transition to pure lake effect snow late
tonight and persist through tuesday. current suite of lake effect
snow/winter weather advisory headlines remain in effect through
tuesday afternoon. flow backs southwesterly late tuesday pushing
lake effect into western ny allowing for a brief reprieve ahead of
the next system.

&&

.short term /tuesday/...
a clipper will move into the great lakes on tuesday night into
wednesday while dragging a cold front across the local area.
accumulating lake effect snow returns with the cold front where
portions of northwest pennsylvania could receive another 8-10 inches
of snow through thursday morning. elsewhere, expect at least 0.5" to
1 inch of snowfall with the clipper. highs in the upper 20s
wednesday fall to the upper teens to lower 20s by thursday.
overnight lows in the tens wednesday with wind chill values in the
single digits thursday morning. coldest temperatures will be late
thursday night into friday morning with the potential for wind
chills in the low single digits to near zero.

&&

.long term /tuesday night through sunday/...
quieter through the long term period as areas of high pressure build
into the region friday through the weekend. temperatures will
gradually warm through the long term with highs in the mid 20s
friday increasing to near freezing by monday.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
widespread mvfr conditions are seen across the region behind the
cold front that is departing out to the east. a trough will be
sweeping through the region today as the strong low pressure
system to the north moves to the northeast. this will bring
strong winds with snow across the area for the majority of the
taf period causing ifr conditions. snow can be seen entering
western ohio this morning with generally ifr visibilities,
though there are some pockets of heavier snowfall bringing
visibility down to lifr. this will continue across northern
ohio into pennsylvania impacting all taf sites. currently only
have a tempo group at keri for lifr visibilities, but it will
be possible across the region in the heavier pockets of snow and
snow squalls if they develop.

snowfall should start to taper off for much of the region by
this evening and conditions will start to improve to mvfr. some
locations in northwestern ohio could even see vfr conditions by
the the end of the period. prolonged snowfall will be possible
across the eastern half of taf sites due to being down wind of
the lake enhanced snow, but conditions should still improve
slightly. keri will see continued snowfall and ifr conditions
through the taf period.

winds during the majority of the period will be out of the west
and gusting up to 50 knots for sites along the lake shore and
up to 45 knots elsewhere. by around 00z, winds will begin to
subside, though it will be a slow progression and should expect
winds gusts of 30 knots and above through the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings and visibilities will continue into
monday night and tuesday. non-vfr conditions across northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania in lake effect snow showers
through at least thursday.

&&

.marine...
a strong cold front continues to quickly move eastward across the
region this morning and should clear lake erie by daybreak. the
accompanying low pressure system will move across the great lakes
today and push off to the northeast into eastern canada by this
evening. behind the front, winds have begun to increase out of the
west with sustained winds 25-30 knots gusting upwards of 35 knots.
winds will continue to increase throughout the day peaking around
midday at around 50 knots. the gale warning is in effect for the
entirety of the lake through 8 am this morning when the storm
warning goes into effect for the central basin and 10 am for the
eastern basin. the western basin will continue to be under a gale
warning as winds are not expected to reach storm criteria. waves
today will also build to 8 to 12 feet with occasional waves around
15 feet for the western basin and 15 to 20 feet with waves
occasionally around 26 feet for the central and eastern basins. as a
result of the strong, sustained westerly winds, water levels in the
western basin will fall well below the critical mark for safe
navigation today. currently, the water levels are 1.5 inches above
low water datum and are forecast to fall to around 4 feet below low
water datum. winds will continue to stay elevated through tuesday
and will need to additional marine headlines once the threshold for
the storm warning is no longer met after this evening. additionally,
with the strong influx of cold air and elevated winds, freezing
spray will be a concern across the central and eastern basins
through wednesday morning.

gales will begin to subside from west to east during the day tuesday
as the low pressure system continues to depart northeastward.
elevated winds of at least 20 to 30 knots are expected to continue
through wednesday night across much of the central and eastern
basins. waves will begin to slowly subside as well through the week
but will generally be 5 to 9 feet through wednesday night.
afterwards, quieter marine conditions are expected with high
pressure building into the region.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...high wind warning until 10 pm est this evening for ohz003-
006>009-017>019.
high wind warning until 1 am est tuesday for ohz010>014-089.
winter weather advisory until 1 pm est tuesday for ohz011-012-
014-021>023-089.
lake effect snow warning until 1 pm est tuesday for ohz013.
wind advisory until 1 am est tuesday for ohz020>023-030>033-
038.
wind advisory until 10 pm est this evening for ohz027>029-036-
037-047.
pa...high wind warning until 1 am est tuesday for paz001-002.
wind advisory until 1 am est tuesday for paz003.
winter weather advisory until 4 pm est tuesday for paz001.
lake effect snow warning until 4 pm est tuesday for paz002-003.
marine...gale warning until 7 am est tuesday for lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory until 1 am est tuesday for lez142>144-
162>164.
storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for lez145>147-
165>167.
gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lez148-149-168-
169.
storm warning until 9 pm est this evening for lez148-149-168-
169.

&&

$$

synopsis...03
near term...04/03
short term...garuckas
long term...garuckas
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 291148
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
648 am est mon dec 29 2025

.key messages...
- strong west to northwest winds today will gust to 55 mph. an
occasional gust to 60 mph is possible near lake michigan.

- lake effect snow and blowing snow is likely near and north of
the toll road over indiana and far southern lower michigan.

- cold this week to end 2025 and start the new year. highs will
be mostly in the 20s with wind chills frequently dipping to
near zero.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 359 am est mon dec 29 2025

the fast moving cold front has cleared northwest ohio as of 4
am est. very strong winds behind the front have been buffeting
the entire forecast area. the strong pressure gradient will
remain over the area through today allowing the strong winds to
continue. west to northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to
55 mph have been occuring overnight. these strong winds are
expected to continue today. have continued the wind advisory for
the entire area. a few gust to 60 mph are likely along berrien
county shoreline of lake michigan. the surface low was over the
georgian bay with a center pressure below 984 mb. the flash
freeze has been occuring overnight with areas of water on
pavement rapidly freezing and producing icy spots.

light snow has been falling associated with the low pressure
system. the snow was beginning to be enhanced downstream of lake
michigan where the heavier snow amounts are expected. lake
effect snow amounts generally between 3 and 5 inches are
expected; however, locally bands will likely be capable of
producing 6" or more. snow ratios should be quite high later
today with values rising to between 15:1 and 20:1. temperatures
this upcoming week will not be able to recover much with highs
mainly in the 20s with lows in the teens. wind chill values
should dip frequently to zero. at this time, do not plan to
issue a cold weather advisory, but plan to mention these cold
temperatures in the hazardous weather outlook product and also
social media products. otherwise, a second surge of arctic air
will help keep highs below freezing to end 2025 and begin the
new year.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 648 am est mon dec 29 2025

a strong area of vorticity pushes through the area in the first part
of this taf period behind the overnight fropa. strong wnw winds are
at their strongest this morning (35 to 45 kts gusts) before tapering
overnight afternoon and evening. the vort max also sets off some
snow with the strongest (>1"/hr rates per the href) looking to move
into the area between 14 and 18z. with all of this mind, will
continue with mvfr cigs through the bulk of the period, but ifr/lifr
vis will be possible under the heavier snow bands.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est /midnight cst/ tuesday
for inz005-103-104-204.
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est tuesday for miz078-079-
177-277.
marine...storm warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 291026
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
526 am est mon dec 29 2025

.key messages...

- wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are forecast today; a few gusts to 60
mph remain possible. a high wind warning remains in effect until 9
pm.

- widespread snow showers will occur today, with some snow squalls
possible. snow and blowing snow will reduce visibilities.

- cold air with the winds will hold wind chill readings in the
single digits and teens today.

- seasonally cold conditions will prevail through the end of the
week.

&&

.aviation...

windy conditions in the wake of a cold front will remain prominent
through the day as wind direction continues to veer from 240-260
degrees to 280 to 300 degrees. sustained winds between 20 to 30
knots are expected with gusts ranging from 35 to 45 knots. an
isolated gust up to 50 knots cannot be ruled out. the push of colder
arctic air will also activate widespread lake effect snow with
embedded heavy snow showers/snow squalls. the heavier snow showers
are expected from the morning into the early afternoon and will be
capable of producing lifr visibility restrictions. mvfr ceiling
develops some breaks late in the day and snow showers decrease in
coverage and intensity towards the evening. wind gusts intensity
also to drop off late tonight but gusts to 30-35 knots remain
possible overnight.

for dtw... very windy conditions continue to ramp up through the
morning and afternoon hours with gusts peaking around 45 knots. an
isolated gust up towards 50 knots cannot be ruled out. light snow
expected through the day with some embedded snow squalls possible
between 14z-19z. squalls will be capable of producing a quick 1-2
inch of snow accumulation.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling below 5000 feet today.

* high for crosswind threshold exceedence through the evening.

* high for precipitation type as snow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 300 am est mon dec 29 2025

discussion...

regional satellite loop shows a dual upper low; a weakening and
shearing low over mo/il and a rapidly deepening compact upper low
racing across nrn lower mi. the increasing mid level height falls
associated with this upper low over the nrn great lakes is driving
rapid deepening of the associated surface low, now located over nrn
lake huron and projected to move into georgian bay by daybreak. the
central pressure is expected to drop to around 978 mb by 12z, roughly
a 22 mb drop within 24 hours. this low, already occluded, will lift
northeast into quebec this afternoon as the compact mid level low
remains fairly progressive.

the deepening and compact nature of this system is resulting in
strengthening wind fields across the great lakes. post cold frontal
subsidence allowed brief gusts above 40 mph last evening. more
aggressive ongoing low level cold air advection concurrent with the
increasing wind fields will increase the probabilities for gusts
above 45 mph this morning, with 45 to 50 knots expected within the
deepening mixed layer. a sfc trough axis is forecast to move across
se mi from northwest of southeast between 12z and 18z. there will be
a veering of the winds from sw to wnw in the wake of this trough.
steepening of the low level lapse in the wake of this feature will
sustain decent mixing and strong winds into the evening. there has
been a bit of a downward trend in wind gusts potential with the 00z
model suite. guidance is still supportive of a long duration of 45-
55 mph wind gusts. this and to account for a potential for some
slight overachievement on mixing will support maintaining the current
high wind warning.

deep layer wrap around moisture is forecast to pivot across se mi
from roughly daybreak through early-mid afternoon within a region of
weakening mid level deformation. the better larger scale ascent is
forecast between 15z and 18z, warranting high snow probabilities
during this time period. increased boundary layer convergence along
the aforementioned sfc trough and some lake mi enhancement will
occur within a favorable thermo dynamic profile to produce some
intervals of higher intensity snow showers. based on the timing of
the ascent, this will mainly be focused between 12z and 18z today.
convective snow probabilities are quite high for an inch or two of
accumulation. there is a low chance for three inches from the
northern detroit suburbs up through the i-69 corridor and thumb.
given the winds, precise snowfall measurements may prove futile. the
combination of gusty winds, sub freezing temperatures and brief heavy
snow showers will likely pose some hazardous travel conditions. the
transition to northwest flow this afternoon and evening will limit
remnant lake effect into se mi.

through the remainder of the week, an eastern canadian upper low
will sustain seasonally cold air across the great lakes. a
progressive weak short wave/clipper will provide a high probability
for light snow late tues/tues night, with limited accumulation
(under two inches). a little stronger short wave forecast to pivot
around the base of the upper low is forecast to deliver a
reinforcing short of arctic air wednesday into new years.

marine...

a powerful low pressure is system passing over northern lake huron
near peak intensity this morning. strong sw to wsw wind will persist
to its south this morning with strong gales expected and even some
gusts to storm force possible. these strong winds will cause water
levels to drop below low water datum at saginaw bay and western lake
erie where low water advisories are in effect. as the low departs
east this morning, a surface trough will shift wind direction to nw
and allow a surge of arctic air to spill across the area. frequent
strong gales continue through the afternoon and evening with gusts
to storm force at times. storm warnings remain in effect for all of
lake huron while gale warnings are in effect for lake st. clair and
western lake erie. snow squalls increase in coverage through the
day, and heavy freezing spray will impact lake huron as well.
potential for storm force gusts dwindles this evening with gales
likely to continue overnight into tuesday morning before tapering
off. a northwest flow pattern persists through much of the week,
offering additional snow showers and occasional freezing spray. the
next clipper arrives late tuesday which brings an uptick in nw wind
wednesday but this looks to stay below gale force at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...high wind warning until 9 pm est this evening for miz047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...storm warning until 11 am est tuesday for lhz361>363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning until 11 am est tuesday for lhz361>363.

low water advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz422.

lake st clair...gale warning until 7 am est tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 7 am est tuesday for lez444.

low water advisory until 1 am est tuesday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...sc
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.