Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
670
fxus61 kcle 190733
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
333 am edt wed aug 19 2026

.what has changed...
pops and qpf have trended further north for tonight, resulting
in an increased risk of heavy rainfall in the southern half of
the area. shower/thunderstorm chances are also increasing for
saturday.

&&

.key messages...
1) scattered showers and thunderstorms likely today and tonight.
heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible in the southern
half of the area tonight.

2) an unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold front will meander south/southeast towards the area
today, resulting in chances of scattered showers and storms
across the area during the day today. at this point, instability
will likely be too low for severe weather concerns. more
widespread rain will arrive overnight the front pushes south
and better moisture moves into the area, but there is still some
uncertainty in how far north the showers will be and where the
heaviest rain will occur. recent cams have shifted significantly
farther north with the highest qpf axis, and moderate to heavy
rainfall is possible generally south of us-30 this evening into
early thursday morning as pwats increase to nearly 2 inches.
there are also concerns for training as showers/storms move west
to east parallel to the frontal boundary. soils are saturated
in the southern part of the area after recent heavy rainfall so
it won`t take much to flood if heavy rainfall does materialize
in the local area. will need to keep an eye on guidance trends
over the next forecast cycle. wpc has introduced a slight ero
(level 2 of 4) to the southern half of the area to account for
the northward shift in heavy rainfall potential.

the pace of the front has slowed considerably and scattered
showers remain possible in the southeastern half of the area
through late thursday morning and possibly as late as thursday
afternoon.

key message 2...
dry weather is expected as high pressure builds into the region
thursday night through friday, but unsettled weather will return
to the region over the weekend as a series of upper troughs push
across the great lakes. the most widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely occur saturday afternoon into saturday
evening as the first upper trough moves east across the area.
the region will be in the warm sector so there will be plenty of
moisture and likely sufficient instability to warrant at least
an isolated severe weather threat, but confidence in the exact
timing and placement of storms remains relatively low this far
out. will need to continue to monitor the severe weather
potential in the coming days. additional showers and storms are
likely across ne oh and nw pa as the secondary trough pushes
across the region sunday, although it`s likely that precip
associated with this feature will be lake-enhanced.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
a cold front will bring light, scattered rain showers this
morning, with largely vfr conditions expected. brief periods of
mvfr ceilings will be possible, with and for a couple hours
behind the departing showers later this morning into the early
afternoon.

the cold front stalls over the area, and additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight mainly
along and south of us-30, though it`s possible they could extend
farther north (there`s some uncertainty in this regard). for
now, highest confidence is along our southern taf sites
(including kfdy, kmfd, kcak, and kyng). non-vfr will mainly
occur with lower visibility in heavier showers/storms.

outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
areawide on saturday, before becoming more focused along the
lakeshore areas of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
saturday night. additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible east of i-77 on sunday.

&&

.marine...
conditions across lake erie will remain fairly quiet as winds
with be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots this
evening, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight into
wednesday morning. waves will be choppy, though the highest
waves 2 to 4 feet will stay in the open waters with the near
shore seeing 2 feet or less. winds will shift to be
northerly behind a cold front on wednesday and diminish to 5 to
10 knots and persist through thursday night. waves will be 1 to
3 feet and possibly around 4 feet in the near shore with the
front and right after, then will diminish. friday, winds will
shift to be southerly at 5 to 10 knots, then shift to be
northwesterly late saturday night behind a cold front,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

there will be potential for showers and thunderstorms across
lake erie wednesday and saturday that could bring higher winds
and waves within the storms. there is higher confidence in
thunderstorms impacting the lake on saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...saunders
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
612
fxus63 kiwx 190550
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
150 am edt wed aug 19 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers will continue to diminish through the remainder
of the overnight hours.

- scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon,
especially south of us route 30. widespread severe weather is
not expected, but some storms may produce brief heavy rain and
wind gusts to 40 mph.

- after pleasant conditions thursday and friday, more light rain
is expected on saturday.

&&

.update...
issued at 830 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

broad pre-frontal confluence and low-mid level theta-e advection
have allowed a band of showers and storms to form along a modest
mlcape axis. this instability axis from eastern iowa into
southeast wisconsin should build southeast into sw lower
mi/northwest indiana through 04z. instability may become
slightly elevated through time progressing through late evening.
this leads to some question as to maintenance of stronger 50-60
mph gusts currently being observed with this line across se
wisconsin. a 50-60 knot speed max at 500 mb is progressing
through a low amplitude upper trough across the southern great
lakes tonight with plenty of low level and deep layer shear to
sustain this convection through at least lower michigan/far
northern indiana, at least partially compensating for more
marginal instability. there also could be some mcv-type feature
forming on northern periphery of this convection across se
wisconsin that could help sustain storms through 05z-06z. based
on current trends, did increase pops to categorical across the
northwest with expectation that some temporal window exists late
evening/early overnight for 40-50 mph gusts across sw lower
michigan/northwest indiana, with a gradual weakening with
east/southeast extent overnight as some boundary layer
stabilization occurs and better mlcape axis gets pinched off
to the west. in addition to the potential of gusty winds, some
brief heavy rainfall is expected that could lead to some
localized ponding. however, overall progressive should keep
rainfall amounts in check most locations. it is possible some
localized 1+" inch amounts could be realized across far nw
indiana/sw lower michigan.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 206 pm edt tue aug 18 2026

not a lot of wholesale changes to this forecast period. cool
front currently sitting over southcentral mi and orientated to
the southwest into central il still on schedule to begin pushing
southeastward into the area this evening. looks like after 6 pm
edt chances for some light showers increase out ahead of the
incoming frontal boundary for our far northwestern parts of the
cwa before some scattered thunderstorms along the front push in
shortly afterwards and continues to move southeastward through
the area overnight into wednesday. forecasted instability,
mainly elevated, with values less than 1000 j/kg coupled with
decent shear values ahead of and along the front with values
around 70-80 kts, and surface dew points currently in the 60s
across the area. expectation in this environment with the later
diurnal timing that some of the storms may become strong but
would trend weaker through the evening as the front
southeastward.

on wednesday, depending on the exact position of the frontal
boundary, which at this time will most likely be over our far
south/southeastern parts of the cwa. which if this does pan out
then there will be afternoon slight chances of showers and
storms mainly for the southern half of the cwa with the close
proximity of the frontal boundary to provide a bit of lift.
however, severe storms are not expected with most of the area to
the north of the boundary with a less than ideal environment
especially with a drier airmass pushing in from the north in the
wake of the front by wednesday afternoon and evening. zonal flow
aloft across the region will bring slightly cooler temperatures
across the area into friday with highs in the upper 70s
expected. fairly nice weather with comfortable conditions will
be in place for thursday and friday before another cool front
associated with a trough dropping southeastward into the great
lakes arrives late friday and into saturday increasing chances
once again for showers and storms and before pushing quickly
eastward.

by sunday, ridging over the central conus then begins to
build northward into the region bringing another period of dry
weather and a slight warming trend into next week with highs
back into the low 80s.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 145 am edt wed aug 19 2026

convective complex which moved into the area from southeast
wisconsin continues to diminish in intensity as weak mlcin has
developed locally with approach of the weakening mlcape axis.
an upper speed max and increased deep layer shear has provided
some longevity to the organization of this convection despite
the waning instability, and a period of showers is still
possible at kfwa in the 07z-09z before the line dissipates.
a lagging frontal boundary will drop across the southern great
lakes overnight, and with plenty of residual low level moisture,
some lower end mvfr or ifr cigs are possible before improving
mid morning.

for today, stronger mid/upper level short wave will bypass the
area across the northern great lakes, but low level trough axis
will be sagging into northern indiana coupled with some
additional sheared vorticity maxima progressing through broad
cyclonic upper flow. this should give rise to some scattered
afternoon showers, particularly across kfwa and points
southward where better sfc based instability axis is expected to
reside. instability magnitudes do appear to be somewhat limited
as far north as kfwa, and with weak mid level lapse rates,
greater confidence in thunder at this time is south of kfwa this
afternoon. will include prob30 group at kfwa to cover this
potential, but some thunder may need to be added in later
forecasts if sufficient destablization can be realized.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...marsili
discussion...andersen
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
895
fxus63 kdtx 190724
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
324 am edt wed aug 19 2026

.key messages...

- low chance of a shower or thunderstorm today near the ohio border;
dry conditions prevail elsewhere today and thursday.

- showers and thunderstorms return friday night, with the highest
coverage and best chances on saturday.

- temperatures remain near normal through the period.

&&

.discussion...

a large and seasonably strong upper level low (544 dam at 500 mb) is
centered over james bay early this morning and looks to exert its
influence through the rest of the workweek. respectable height falls
this morning supported light showers with the slowly advancing cold
front, although thunderstorms were hard pressed to materialize, as
expected with the limited instability. the front looks to wash out
close to the southern michigan border as a weak pv filament breaks
off from trailing shortwave over the midwest and tracks through
southern lower michigan late today. a secondary 850-750 mb theta-e
ridge is expected to track south of eight mile road this afternoon,
bringing enough instability near the southern michigan border to
offer up a low chance of shower or thunderstorm.

otherwise, upper level confluent flow sets in, strong subsidence/mid
level drying will allow for dry conditions tonight and thursday as
high pressure (1018 mb) translates east through the central great
lakes. a series of shortwaves is then on track to reinforce
troughing over the great lakes region. the first one arrives friday
evening/night, with a second, stronger shortwave arriving saturday
that has the potential to cut off over the central/eastern great
lakes saturday night into sunday. numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are likely on saturday. a lower chance of showers
continues into sunday under cool cyclonic flow around as 850 mb
temps drop below 10 c.

temperatures look to remain near normal through the forecast period.
high temperatures will generally hover within a few degrees of 80
degrees depending on the day, with overnight lows dropping into the
50s most nights.

&&

.marine...

northwest flow takes hold this morning in the wake of a departing
cold front. high pressure will fill in through the day which will
promote light winds and dry weather, and will bring some more
variable wind direction by the afternoon before veering winds east
for portions of the southern great lakes. high pressure holds
through friday morning before departing east across the continental
northeast. active weather returns friday afternoon and into the
weekend as a cold front moves through the region. rain showers and
thunderstorms will become increasingly likely ahead of and along the
cold front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1201 am edt wed aug 19 2026

aviation...

a weak frontal boundary moving across the region is leading to
increasing coverage of showers through the early morning hours.
isolated thunderstorm chances exist, but low probability will
continue to preclude mention at this time as observations have also
shown decreasing lightning potential as activity moves through. there
will be a chance for lower stratus in the immediate wake of the
frontal passage which may bring intervals of mvfr ceilings roughly
between 08-13z. ceilings currently expected to lift into vfr by late
tomorrow morning or early afternoon with post frontal northwesterly
winds that will eventually turn out of the n-ne in the evening.

d21/dtw convection...very limited chance of an isolated thunderstorm
through 10z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight, and high
later this morning.

* very low for thunderstorms through the early morning hours.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......am
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.