Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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081
fxus61 kcle 092349
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
749 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

.what has changed...
a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the western half
of the forecast area through midnight tonight. primary hazard
will be damaging wind gusts, a tornado or two, and heavy
rainfall.

timing of thunderstorms into northwest ohio this evening has
trended faster and the slight risk for severe thunderstorms
(level 2 of 5) has been expanded east to around vermilion.
raised low temperatures slightly the next couple nights given
the warm and humid airmass. lowered pops on tuesday morning and
portions of the area tuesday afternoon given uncertainty in
timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. qpf has also
trended down across northeast portions of the forecast area
through wednesday.

&&

.key messages...
1) there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
in northwest ohio this evening and tonight. damaging wind gusts
of 50-60 mph are the primary hazard.

2) additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through wednesday
will lead to the potential for localized flooding and scattered
severe thunderstorms.

3) muggy conditions will make temperatures feel uncomfortable at
times through wednesday with cooler and drier air returning to end
the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
7:50 pm update...
an mcs is ongoing and moving roughly east-southeast across
northern indiana into northwest ohio this evening. the mcs has
maintained strength as moving east with spc issuing a severe
thunderstorm watch for the western half of the forecast area
through midnight tonight. primary hazard will be damaging wind
gusts and a tornado or two. can`t rule out instances of heavy
rainfall with isolated flash flooding, particularly in urban and
well-saturated areas.

previous discussion...
weak low pressure is located over nw illinois with a warm front
extending east across northern indiana into western ohio. the
warm front is identified primarily by a swath of dewpoints in
the lower 70s that is advecting northward today. an mcs is
ongoing across lake michigan this afternoon and a severe
thunderstorm watch extends as far east as williams county ohio
through 7 pm. the northern portion of the mcs is expected to
outpace the reservoir of unstable air and the associated
moisture advection. the southern portion of the mcs is more
likely to maintain strength into indiana but unclear at this
time the extent it can hold together into nw ohio. the
instability gradient is expected to lift north along the i-75
corridor and possibly to the central highlands but only make
slow progress to the northeast across lake erie tonight. cams
have struggled with the handling of this mcs but best timing
estimates are for a few thunderstorms to continue east along the
advancing warm front into the i-75 corridor and possibly
towards mansfield between 8-11 pm. a general weakening trend is
likely as we get past sunset and uncertainty remains regarding
the coverage of severe wind gusts into this evening. in general
the timing of thunderstorms has trended faster into nw ohio.

later tonight we expect to see a low level jet develop from chicago
into lower michigan. this feature combined with the next round of
shortwave energy moving through the quasi northwest flow aloft are
likely to result in a rejuvenation of thunderstorms upstream across
sw lower michigan. showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected
to spread east across lake erie after midnight tonight while perhaps
more robust convection still favors a southeast trajectory towards
central ohio. models over the last couple days have been
highlighting a swath of heavier rain setting up just southwest of
our forecast areas in indiana/west central ohio prior to 12z.

key message 2...
the local area remains on the downstream side of an
upper level ridge over the rocky mountains and plains states through
mid-week. this places the local area in a favorable region for
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front
stalls in the vicinity and multiple shortwaves move through the
flow aloft. timing of additional showers and thunderstorms is
challenging beyond tonight and will be impacted by storm
evolution, outflow boundaries, and placement of the stalled
front. we do expect a break during the late morning/early
afternoon on monday. moderate instability is expected to
develop through the afternoon, especially across southern
portions of the forecast area, with scattered thunderstorms
possible during the late afternoon. a more organized severe
weather threat could materialize during the evening ahead of a
more substantial shortwave trough sliding through the central
great lakes. good veering of the flow with height is expected
along with around 40 knots of shear. almost all of the forecast
area is in a slight risk(level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
on monday.

depending on storm evolution, a trailing rain threat could linger
into monday night, particularly closer to central ohio. with the
potential for a stronger round of storms on monday evening/night,
did lower pops to chance for most of the daytime on tuesday.
the airmass remains very moist with pw values rebounding to near
2 inches but confidence in placement of storms is low by this
time. the more active storm track could be just south of the
area on tuesday but will need to be monitored. coverage is
likely to increase again tuesday night. then one more
opportunity for thunderstorms is in the forecast on wednesday
afternoon ahead of the eventual cold front. storm total rainfall
amounts through wednesday are over 2 inches across southwest
portions of the forecast area but could see localized totals of
3 or more inches over several days. will need to monitor the
potential for flooding as the week progresses and areas become
saturated.

key message 3...
this active stretch of weather will be characterized by warm
and muggy conditions. dewpoints return to the 70s on monday and
heat index values will be near 90 degrees across portions of
northwest and north central ohio. elevated humidity levels will
continue (at least in ohio) through wednesday. temperatures
will settle back into the 70s to end the week and bring some
relief from the higher humidity.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is knocking on the
doorstep of eastern terminals with the 00z taf issuance.
maintained tempo groups for tsra impacts at ktol/kfdy between
00z/mon and 03z/mon. confidence in the mcs maintaining its
strength as it moves east-southeast towards central ohio
terminals remains low, but kept prob30 groups in all of taf
sites excluding kyng/keri. there will likely be future amds
as tonight evolves. strong wind gusts to 35-40 knots will be
possible in strongest thunderstorms. any severe thunderstorm
that moves over a terminal will be capable of producing 50+ knot
wind gusts. highest confidence in severe wind gusts will be at
kfdy this evening.

beyond the next 6 hours or so, the forecast gets very uncertain.
guidance is continuing to suggest another area of showers and
thunderstorms moving across terminals monday morning, possibly
into later monday morning. however, exact details in timing and
location are hard to parse out at this time given ongoing
convection across the airspace. given low confidence, opted to
maintain prob30 groups for a few hours across all taf sites for
any ts impacts monday morning. conditions are expected to remain
vfr outside of any shra/tsra.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected through
thursday as several rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms move across the airspace. some storms could be
strong to severe during this timeframe.

&&

.marine...
a warm front will lift across lake erie tonight, waiver across the
southern great lakes through at least part of wednesday, and then
sag south late wednesday or wednesday night. winds will shift
southwest behind the front tonight and remain generally west-
southwest until the cold front sinks south later this week. winds
will be a bit elevated at 10-15kt late tonight through monday
evening, pushing waves to 1-3 feet in the central and eastern
basins. clusters of storms moving over or near the lake and their
mesoscale impacts to pressure and winds may cause a period or two of
more enhanced winds to 20kt or so over the lake, particularly late
tonight into monday morning. this could lead to a brief period of 3
to 5 footers across parts of the central or eastern basin. given the
convective influence on the pattern, confidence in a period of winds
closer to 20kt and/or waves of at least 4 feet is too low for any
headlines, though the potential for a brief period of small craft
advisory/beach hazard statements will continue to be evaluated.
winds may briefly turn more northerly early tuesday as the front
briefly pushes south before wavering back north. winds will be a
bit elevated (at least 10 to 15kt, and perhaps briefly up to 20kt)
out of a more northerly direction behind the front wednesday night
through friday, bringing a period of choppier conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10/13
aviation...13
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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412
fxus63 kiwx 092353
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
753 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

.key messages...

- there remains the potential for severe thunderstorms this
evening. damaging winds, flash flooding and an isolated
tornado possible.

- additional severe thunderstorms and flooding possible monday
afternoon into monday night.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1243 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

focus remains on convective evolution and intensity late this
afternoon into tonight. surface warm front is on schedule in
reaching to near the mi border during this time, allowing for a
muggy and unstable air mass to settle in for most locations under
perturbed west-northwest flow aloft.

there still appears to be two windows for convection, though
there might not be much of a break between them. the first
window is late this afternoon into early this evening as a small
scale bowing segment and mcv (currently near milwaukee)
continues east-southeast interacting with the warm front and
substantial mucape axis. new, scattered, sfc based cell growth
appears likely along its outflow in the vicinity of the mi state
line 20-01z. marginal deep layer shear profiles expected here
initially, along with forcing and colder temps aloft bypassing
north may allow weak capping to limit coverage and intensity
somewhat. that said, ~2000 j/kg of mlcape and the current
forward momentum of the cluster could support a damaging wind
and non-zero tornado threat into mainly southwest mi and far
northern in during this time.

the second window comes later this evening into the overnight hours
as the warm front becomes invigorated by an incoming small scale
impulse and deeper moisture advection on the nose of a ~40 kt
low level jet. there still may be a damaging wind threat with
any bowing segments given the lingering mucape and increasing
deep layer shear, with an isolated tornado still not out of the
question. the bigger concern by this time with be the flash
flood potential given the potential for training/backbuilding
and a deep warm cloud layer wherever the composite outflow
stalls. this placement will depend on how the late afternoon-
early evening activity evolves (strength of cold pool/outflow
uncertain). this will need to be closely monitored regardless
given the hybrid maddox/frontal flash flood look to this.

this periodically stormy pattern will likely continue into at least
monday and tuesday as several small scale perturbations track east-
southeast in the vicinity of the lingering frontal zone and
associated mucape axis. forecast specifics are very uncertain in
this kind of pattern (take it one day at a time) given the subtle
nature to the forcing mechanisms and the influence of previous
convective episodes on where exactly the frontal boundary sets up
for the next round. as for monday, expect a lull monday morning
before chances for severe storms increase during the afternoon hours
as strong diurnal boundary layer destabilization develops under 30-
40 kts of 0-6 km shear. damaging winds appear to the primary threat,
with another round of training storms and flash potential monday
night as the low level jet ramps back up.

trends in guidance continue to favor a trend toward drier/less
active conditions mid to late week as previous episodes of
convection hopefully force the effective boundary off to the
south.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 747 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions at the terminals this
period, with potential drops to ifr conditions in any heavier
showers or thunderstorms. the main squall line has passed
through kfwa and will continue eastward through the period.
additional showers and storms are possible after a lull late
this evening, with storms refiring with the llj and stalled
boundary extending across the area. model guidance is pretty
variable with this activity tonight, and it was tough to narrow
down exactly where and when things develop. for now have chances
for showers and storms redeveloping around 3-8z time frame,
with better potential initially at ksbn and later at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
732
fxus63 kdtx 092315
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
715 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

.key messages...

- one or possibly two rounds of showers and thundestorms are
expected to track through southeast michigan this evening and
tonight. isolated storms will be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and flooding rainfall. locations near the
southern michigan border carry the highest risk.

- seasonable temperatures continue into mid week, with chances for
thunderstorms primarily focused near the southern michigan border
monday night and tuesday.

- dry weather is expected to end work week.

&&

.aviation...

with the warm front over northern in/oh stalled near the state line,
lower level moisture failed to sufficiently push into se mi this
evening. result has been rapid diminishment of the line of west mi
storms with terminals only seeing a light shower/drizzle this
evening. dry conditions hold through much of the night with skies
staying vfr. another disturbance rippling along the front offers a
chance for redeveloping showers/storms late tonight-early monday
morning over far southern mi. model guidance suggests only dtw/yip
having a noteworthy chance at seeing a storm so have adjusted the
prob30 groups to cover this window. for the rest of the terminals,
confidence is too low for precip mentions with said redevelopment. a
period of borderline mvfr ceilings follows for monday morning before
diurnal heating slowly scatters cloud cover.

d21/dtw convection... storms this evening remain along/south of the
state border. there is a chance for redeveloping showers/storms late
tonight-early monday morning over far southern mi with dtw looking
to reside on the northern fringe.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms tonight.

* moderate for ceilings aob 5000ft monday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 215 pm edt sun aug 9 2026

discussion...

a stable airmass in place over southeast michigan for now, as dew
pts started the day in the 50s. a mcs over the western great lakes
tracking across southern lake michigan will attempt to transport
moisture/instability across the border by early this evening.
surface dew pts are currently lowers 70s degrees over northern
indiana. sufficiently strong (40 knots) southwest low level jet
early this evening to transport instability/solid negative showalter
indices into the south half of the cwa. the stronger wind fields and
localized stronger 0-6 km bulk shear will support a chance of severe
storms, especially toward the southern michigan border this evening
where the sharp instability gradient will reside. machine learning
suggests all severe hazards are in play, including an isolated
tornado as 0-1 km bulk shear increases above 20 knots. despite mid
level lapse rates looking average, mlcapes aoa 1500 j/kg suggests
large hail threat, which is in addition to the main hazard, damaging
winds. however, if abrupt southeast development occurs with the
upstream mcs and it dives into northern indiana (a distinct
possibility), our severe threat will be diminished as the moisture
transport fails to materialize. regardless, the deep moisture plume
(pw up to 2 inches) looks to be fold over and descend south into the
ohio valley overnight as 850 mb winds veer more westerly. thus,
chances for training and significant flooding rainfall seems to be
low locally, with much higher chances over the northern ohio valley.

there is fairly good model agreement regarding subsidence and dry
conditions for most of monday, before some late-day attempt to
destabilize as a subtle shortwave rides along in the west-northwest
upper level flow established over the great lakes region. once
again, the corridor along and south of i-94 will have to be watched
for possible severe storms during monday evening/night.

the close proximity of the moisture axis and substantial instability
over the ohio valley on tuesday will also need to be watched closely
as the strength of upstream shortwave tracking through midwest is
assessed. nbm pops suggest sufficient moisture transport returning
into the southern part of the state will supports likely showers and
thunderstorms near the border, along with a low severe threat.

the jet stream/strong westerlies will remain across the northern
great lakes through bulk of the work week and will become enhanced
on thursday as upper-level ridge builds over the southeastern united
states to close out the work week. predominately confluent upper
level flow supports dry conditions and near-normal temperatures.

marine...

a slow moving, stalled frontal boundary will impact the region
through middle parts of the week, leaving varying wind directions at
times and winds generally less than 20 knots. multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are possible through mid-week, especially across lake
erie where chances are greater for severe weather and strong
thunderstorm winds. by mid to late week, a weakly organized area of
low pressure becomes develops across the northeast, followed by high
pressure of 30.1 inches gradually dropping southeast across the
central and eastern great lakes. this will favor an uptick in
northwest winds wednesday through friday.

hydrology...

one or possibly two round of showers and thundestorms are expected
to track through southeast michigan this evening and tonight. given
the progressive nature of this activity, and with the most intense
convection likely remaining south of the border, the chances for
significant flash flooding remains low (barring unforeseen training
of storms). nonetheless, a few strong thunderstorms will bring
rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour, which could still cause
minor flooding in urban and poor-drainage areas. the daytime hours
of monday look to be mainly dry before another low chance of heavy
rain producing storms develops near the southern michigan border.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sf
marine.......ja
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.