Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
387
fxus61 kcle 120811
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
411 am edt sat sep 12 2026

.what has changed...
there is increasing confidence in shower and storm activity
moving through the area today. there is also increasing
potential for scattered shower and storm activity on sunday
ahead of a cold front, but activity may end up favoring areas
southeast.

&&

.key messages...
1) shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today and again
on sunday. some storms may reach strong to severe limits and may
bring locally heavy rainfall.

2) warm, unsettled weather will return to the area on tuesday
night through thursday with additional showers and storms.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
convective activity is moving through the lower ohio valley
early this morning and will continue to lift north today with a
warm front and increasing moisture across the region.
temperatures will return to the 80s this afternoon with the
front and surface dew points will return to the lower 70s for
most of the area, giving a warm and humid feel. storms will move
through the area through the afternoon with this improved
environment in place. there could be a stronger storm possible,
especially with some modest mlcape across the region and perhaps
30 kts of wind shear with the mid-level shortwave moving through
the region. the main concern would be gusty winds. the slightly
larger concern could be heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values of 1.7-1.8" across the area that indicate that any
rainfall could be efficient.

for sunday, a cold front will approach the region from the
northwest. the main question will be how much has the atmosphere
recovered over the forecast area before the front arrives. with
the bulk of activity occurring this afternoon, there should be
about 18-24 hours for the atmosphere to recover and highs on
sunday should be back in the 80s with dew points back in the
lower 70s. therefore, the front should be able to generate some
activity over the forecast area before activity blossoms further
southeast. there could a bit more organization for strong or
even severe storms on sunday with a better upper trough digging
into the great lakes region and better right entrance jet
energy overhead. the limitation will just be real estate within
the forecast area based on the cold front timing and convective
initiation on sunday.

key message 2...
the next weather system will be a cold front that will approach
the area tuesday evening. this front will slow down as it
approaches the forecast area and eventually stall overhead on
wednesday. this front will allow for scattered shower and storm
chances for tuesday night through thursday with the nearby
boundary and the warm and humid air mass across the region.
too early to tell if any convective activity will have any
severe or flooding threats; however, an east-west oriented
boundary over the area with zonal west-east flow aloft may favor
repeated rounds of activity over the same areas - the question
will just be coverage of storms.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions early this morning will deteriorate through the
taf period as a system enters terminals from the southwest this
morning. rain showers will overspread taf sites from southwest
to northeast through the morning and into the late afternoon
hours today. confidence in thunder at taf sites remains limited
to southeastern terminals (kcak, kyng) but still can`t rule out
an isolated thunderstorm in showers at any taf site. both
ceilings and visibilities will fall to mvfr (and possibility
ifr) at times. timed out the best chance for non-vfr through
tempo groups across terminals with the exception of northernmost
taf sites (ktol, keri) where confidence in -shra is slightly
lower. as showers exit to the east this evening, widespread mvfr
to ifr ceilings are expected with areas of mvfr to ifr
visibilities in fog through early sunday morning. have added an
additional line at taf sites to highlight persistent non-vfr
conditions behind today`s showers and storms.

winds 10 knots or less through the taf window will shift between
southeast and southwest today into early sunday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers/storms sunday
afternoon and evening. non-vfr again possible in scattered
showers/storms tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
a warm front will cross the lake today and allow for modest
offshore flow over the basin. a cold front will cross the lake
on sunday and shift winds to the west then northwest. winds will
freshen to 15 to 20 kts with the cold air advection over the
basin and waves should build to 3 to 5 ft on sunday night.
suspect that there will need to be a small craft advisory and
beach hazards statement issued for much of the nearshore for
sunday night and lingering into monday. high pressure will move
over the lake on monday and decrease flow significantly, while
winds shift to the east then south. this high pressure system
will pass to the east for tuesday and offshore flow will return
once again. a cold front will approach the lake on tuesday
night, shifting winds to the southwest. this boundary should be
south of the lake for wednesday but may be washed out enough to
maintain offshore flow over the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...13
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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989
fxus63 kiwx 120814
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
414 am edt sat sep 12 2026

.key messages...

- there are chances for rain showers (20-60 percent) and
thunderstorms (20-30 percent) today, mainly along and south of
us 24. severe weather is not expected.

- warmer and humid by midweek. chances for rain and storms
(20-40) sunday afternoon and evening, with better chances
(30-60%) late tuesday into wednesday. severe weather is not
expected.

- hazardous swimming conditions are expected for southeast lake
mi beaches sunday and then again on tuesday. breaking waves
and currents are expected. see the latest beach forecast for
details.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

surface high pressure overhead the great lakes region is making for
a beautiful end to the work week today with lower humidity,
seasonable temperatures, and some sunshine. high level clouds can be
seen advecting northward on visible satellite imagery but dry
conditions are expected to prevail today and tonight. light
southeasterly winds and waa will boost temperatures into the upper
70s to low 80s this afternoon.

a stationary front currently centered over the ohio river valley
will be the focus for 40-60% chances for rain and storms on
saturday. scattered showers are likely with potentially a
thunderstorm or two on saturday, mainly for the southeastern half of
our forecast area. this feature will lift north as a warm front on
saturday with an attendant 500mb shortwave. then, an upper level
trough and surface cold front will move through the great lakes
region later saturday evening. increased waa and moisture transport
alongside lift from the warm front will spark chances for showers
and storms, especially along and south of us 24 in indiana and
ohio. scattered showers are expected to begin before daybreak
between 06- 09z saturday and end around 18-21z). severe weather
is not expected at this time, however, an isolated storm or two
will be possible due to surface based instability of up to 1000
j/kg by midday saturday. shear and low/mid level lapse rates
will be too weak for any organized severe weather. northwest
indiana and southwest lower michigan will likely remain dry, as
the cold front likely passes through early saturday morning
prior to peak diurnal heating. high temperatures will be in the
low to mid 80s area-wide on saturday.

stay weather aware if you have plans to head to lake michigan on
sunday! behind the cold frontal passage on saturday, waves are
expected to increase for southeastern lake michigan beaches in
berrien and la porte counties. caa and northwesterly flow sunday
behind the front will yield onshore flow and waves of 2-3 ft,
meaning the swim risk will be moderate for both la porte and berrien
counties on sunday. breaking waves and currents are expected.

the rest of the weekend into early next week appears dry, with low
chances (20%) for rain/storms late sunday into monday morning with a
shortwave and associated upper level trough that passes through the
great lakes. with a potentially closed upper level low building
across the pacific northwest, this allows yet another upper level
ridge to amplify across the central and eastern conus early next
week. surface high pressure builds over the eastern us on tuesday
too, with return flow and moisture from the gulf ushering in warmer
than normal temperatures and humid conditions underneath the peak of
the upper level ridge over the great lakes. another frontal system
likely approaches late tuesday and wednesday, with additional
chances for rain and storms (30-60%). this system may be slow moving
or potentially even stall to our northwest (still mixed model
guidance results on if it actually comes through our area or not),
depending on how strong the upper level ridge is. there are no clear
signs of fall in any of the long range guidance as our forecast area
looks to remain sandwiched between hot and humid air to our south
and cooler, drier air to our north for the foreseeable future.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 157 am edt sat sep 12 2026

predominantly vfr conditions at the terminals through the
period. mvfr conditions are possible this morning mainly at kfwa
as moisture transport/warm air advection from the south
increases ahead of an approaching upper level trough from the
west. a warm front will arrive just south of kfwa around 12z,
then lift northeast into ontario/lake erie by around 18z. have a
tempo for -shra/br with mvfr vis (4sm) and ceilings (2500 ft)
between 11-15z. much of the guidance develops light rain showers
in this period at/around kfwa, but they are pretty isolated and
are very focused towards locations further south and east. it`s
possible we see br outside of rain showers this morning at kfwa
as well given light/variable winds and increasing low level
moisture. beyond 15z is a little more questionable, as we deal
with forcing from the mid-level shortwave and surface cold front
approaching from the west (over lake mi by 18z). the cold
front/shortwave move eastward into the overnight hours. in
combination with increased moisture for areas along/south of us
24, there is enough instability generated for scattered showers
and maybe even a few thunderstorms through about 23z. confidence
re: ceilings/visibility and whether a storm hits kfwa or not are
less clear. added a prob 30 from 17-22z with mvfr potential to
account for this potential. ksbn looks to remain dry this
period thanks to limited moisture/dry air incoming from nw. some
of the guidance brings in mvfr ceilings and vis (br) early this
morning, but it appears to be limited in duration. kept out of
the taf for now. winds will become more south-southwesterly
through the morning, then shift west-northwest into the evening
as they weaken.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 120656
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
256 am edt sat sep 12 2026

.key messages...

- weekend shower potential: isolated showers possible today, with
scattered showers developing sunday afternoon primarily north of i-
69.

- cool sunday night: low temperatures fall into the 40s sunday night
as high pressure and cooler air settles over the area.

- unsettled midweek: warmer and humid conditions return early next
week, bringing multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms tuesday
through thursday.

&&

.discussion...

a well-defined shortwave tracking into western kentucky/tennessee
will be opening up and absorbed by the northern stream trough
tracking through the western great lakes. just enough moisture
advection and weak forcing will track into the southeastern half of
the cwa today, along with enough destabilization (slightly negative
li`s and sbcapes of 500-750 j/kg) to support the potential for
isolated showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm. a secondary
moisture axis out ahead of a cold front will also track in from the
western great lakes late in the day, passing through during the
evening or washing out altogether. this will provide a secondary
focus for showers, but mostly over lake huron.

a deep 500 mb low over hudson bay on sunday will direct a strong
shortwave through the straights. timing is now in sync in with the
peak heating of the day, and scattered showers seem likely north of
i-69, closest to the mid level cold pool and moisture enhancement
from saginaw bay. 850 mb temps dropping into the mid single numbers
sunday night will bring mins in the 40s as high pressure builds over
the region. low level flow looks to be mostly offshore sunday night
into monday, but airmass is cold enough to potentially generate some
lake effect showers which could graze the far eastern huron and
sanilac counties before the tail of the upper level pv exits east and
good subsidence kicks in.

a strong storm system will track through the northern plains on
monday and into northwest ontario monday night. the active warm
front is expected to reside over western great lakes. warm and moist
air will eject out of the southern plains and fold over into lower
michigan on tuesday, as pw value reach around 2 inches. with showers
and embedded thunderstorms likely developing during the day, max
temperatures will likely be hindered and capped in the lower 80s.
there is still some potential for the timing of fropa to change
slightly, however.

medium range models continue to hang the front near the southern
michigan border before returning as a warm front wednesday night and
thursday. euro ensembles offer up a 40-50 percent chance for 24 hour
qpf to reach or exceed half an inch.

&&

.marine...

high pressure will continue to bring benign marine conditions to the
region through saturday before unsettled weather comes back in to
finish out the weekend. an active pattern returns late saturday into
sunday as a low pressure lifts thought northern ontario, dragging a
cold front across the area in the morning. overnight/early day
arrival and detachment from the parent low greatly limit any shower
and storm chances. moderate trailing northwest flow develops over
northern lake huron during the daytime on sunday with peak gusts
between 25-30kts. this front looks to stall somewhere near southern
lake huron offering an isolated shower chance into monday. a more
dynamic system then lifts out of the plains and over the northern
great lakes monday night into tuesday. preceding warm, humid airmass
will fuel better scattered storm chances during this time.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1056 pm edt fri sep 11 2026

aviation...

dry and stable conditions hold early this morning within light
southeast flow, ensuring continued vfr conditions with limited
overall cloud coverage. winds veer to southerly during the morning
period as a low pressure system tracks through the ohio valley. this
will offer a window for deeper moisture to arrive locally north of
this system, resulting in some increase in lower vfr cloud during
the morning. daytime heating will work to scatter out this cloud
field heading into the afternoon hours. prevailing winds from the
south-southwest, with modest afternoon gustiness possible
particularly from ptk northward. some increase in lower vfr cloud
will occur again as a cold front moves through saturday night.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the taf
period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and saturday
morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......ss/kdk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.