Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
682
fxus61 kcle 082012
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
312 pm est thu jan 8 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes but added a wind advisory for the downsloping
areas of erie county pa. temperatures are non-diurnal for friday
and highs occur earlier in the day prior to frontal passage.

&&

.key messages...
1) winds picking up tonight into friday as rain moves in with a low
pressure system moving into the region. unseasonably warm
friday.

2) a late saturday/early saturday night cold front brings rain changing
over to lake effect snow sunday and significantly colder air into
the region after the friday warm up.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

an area of low pressure will track from the southern plains region
into the central great lakes tonight into friday. a leading edge
warm front will move into the western zones of the cwa this evening
with weak isentropic ascent producing scattered light rain. low
level/surface warm air advection will dominate the overnight period
with temperatures warming up through the morning hours friday, and
then a non-diurnal trend continuing through friday with the midday
passage of the cold front. temperatures will top out in the upper
50s to near 60f before dropping through the remainder of friday into
the evening. as per typical with these cold season low pressure
systems, low level flows will be on the increase, and in the warm
sector, a low level jet pushing 75kts is expected. a pressure
gradient increase will provide strengthening winds for the area, but
a relatively stable boundary layer should keep those higher low
level velocities off the surface. a line of convection should be
expected ahead of the cold front late tonight into early friday.
while there is not a severe threat, and lightning will probably be
on the scarce side with a pronounced lack of instability, this could
be a mechanism to bring stronger gusts to the surface. that and the
now descending cold air advection in the wake of the cold front will
be the primary producers of the wind issues for this part of the
forecast. that said, the synoptic scale wind gusts are a touch below
40kts for the area, so no wind advisory for now. for the erie county
pa region, southerly downsloping in the warm sector is expected, so
this added aspect to the wind should get the gusts to 40-45kts for a
few hours, and will go with a wind advisory for the lakeshore zone
of the county.

key message 2...

low pressure develops over the lower great lakes in response to a
digging/closing upper level low dropping into the western great
lakes from the canadian prairies. this cold front moving through as
a result late saturday will knock temperatures back down below
freezing once again as we head into the latter half of the weekend.
rain changes to light snow saturday night in minimal to no
accumulations, but then a brief lake effect setup commences for
sunday into early sunday night as a surface trough lingers and the
axis of an upper trough swings through. this is a low end event, and
only expecting 1-4 inches for now in the snow belt areas before
winds turn southwesterly on monday.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
at the surface, a ridge exits e`ward from our region through
18z/fri. simultaneously, a potent low wobbles ne`ward from the
central great plains to near georgian bay. accordingly, a warm
front should sweep ne`ward through our region between about
03z/fri and 12z/fri, while the low`s trailing cold front will
sweep e`ward and should near ktol and kfdy by 18z/fri. our
regional surface winds will be around 10 to 20 knots during the
taf period and veer from sse`erly to s`erly to sw`erly with the
warm front passage. winds will gust up to 20 to 35 knots at
times, especially after 00z/fri. note: a s`erly to sw`erly low-
level jet of about 40 to 60 knots at/near 925 mb will result in
low-level wind shear after 00z/fri. this jet and associated low-
level wind shear should exit e`ward from ktol, kfdy, and
vicinity after about 15z/fri.

widespread dry weather and vfr persist for the time being.
scattered to widespread rain showers and accompanying mvfr
ceilings associated with the low pressure system should
overspread our region generally from west to east between about
03z/fri and about 12z/fri. these showers and widespread
ceilings should persist through 18z/fri and yield vfr to mvfr
visibility.

outlook...non-vfr expected with periods of rain and/or snow
friday afternoon through this tuesday.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory is in effect for all or our nearshore waters,
takes effect at 10 pm est today, and is in effect until:

- 4 pm friday for maumee bay to avon point
- 10 pm friday for avon point to geneva-on-the-lake
- 1 am saturday from geneva-on-the-lake to ripley

marine conditions remain fairly quiet for the time being as a ridge
exits e`ward. tonight through friday evening, a potent low should
wobble ne`ward from the upper ms valley to southern qc and weaken
slowly. accordingly, a warm front should sweep ne`ward across lake
erie tonight and cause se`erly winds to veer to s`erly as wind
speeds freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. waves should build to as
large as 4 to 8 feet in ice-free waters. a cold front should
sweep se`ward across lake erie friday afternoon through evening
and be followed by a ridge building from the northern great
lakes and vicinity through daybreak saturday. the cold front
passage will cause s`erly to sw`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots
to veer to nw`erly and ease to around 10 to 20 knots. winds
will then veer to ene`erly and ease further to around 5 to 10
knots by daybreak saturday, in response to the building ridge.
waves as large as 4 to 8 feet ahead of the cold front subside
gradually behind the front and should be 2 feet or less by
daybreak saturday.

on saturday through saturday night, a low should wobble ne`ward from
near the lower oh valley to near georgian bay and deepen. a warm
front should sweep ne`ward across lake erie on saturday afternoon
through early evening, which should allow ne`erly to e`erly winds to
veer to sw`erly while wind speeds freshen to around 15 to 20 knots.
waves should build to as large as 4 feet. during saturday night, the
deepening low`s trailing cold front should sweep e`ward across lake
erie and cause sw`erly winds to veer to wsw`erly as wind speeds
freshen to around 20 to nearly 30 knots. wind speeds may reach gale-
force at times and abnormally low water levels may materialize in
the western basin. waves should build to as large as 5 to 10 feet.
on sunday, a trough should linger over the lake erie region. wsw`erly
to nw`erly winds should ease slowly from around 20 to 30 knots
to around 15 to 25 knots by nightfall. waves should remain as
large as 5 to 10 feet. during sunday night through tuesday, a
ridge should overspread lake erie generally from the west, but
relatively strong winds and large waves should persist.

&&

.climate...
unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on friday with
record high temperatures possible. here are the record high
temperatures for area climate sites on january 9th:

daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-09 59(1880) 61(1946) 66(1937) 63(1946) 66(1937) 64(1937)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am est friday for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
friday for lez142>145.
small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
friday for lez146-147.
small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 am est
saturday for lez148-149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
000
fxus63 kiwx 081828
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
128 pm est thu jan 8 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and mild with periods of rain tonight. a few showers linger
into friday morning. rainfall totals generally 0.25-0.75".

- isolated storms possible 10 pm to 4 am est tonight along and west
of i-60. gusty winds in excess of 40 mph possible.

- chances (50-70%) for light rain return for saturday.

- colder with periods of snow showers saturday night into
sunday. light snow accums possible, mainly near lake mi.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 128 pm est thu jan 8 2026

active pattern expected through this weekend as several storm
systems take aim on the midwest. the first shortwave and associated
sfc reflection over the central plains will race northeast into the
western/northern great lakes tonight. this will allow a rather
anomalous theta-e ridge in southerly flow to build in tonight with
increasing rain/thunder chances. an impressive pre-frontal 60-75
knot low level jet core will allow temps to peak into the mid 50s to
near 60 degrees overnight, with sfc dewpoints also well into the
50s. this in conjunction with some slight cooling aloft may support
a few hundred j/kg of mucape into areas mainly west of interstate 69
in the 03-09z window tonight. that`s not a whole lot to work with,
but cannot completely rule out some higher wind gusts (40-50 mph) in
any low topped convection in what should be a strongly
sheared/dynamic cold season environment. as for timing of higher
pops, an initial arcing band of lighter rain within the leading
elevated theta-e gradient likely clips at least western/northern
portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into early this
evening. a brief lull follows before lines and clusters of more
robust showers and potentially some embedded thunder track east
through the area mid evening through early friday morning with
rainfall totals expected to generally range between 0.25" and 0.75",
heaviest west of interstate 69. windy with scattered showers and
drizzle possible then into friday morning along the system cool
front, with dry/cool advection allowing temperatures to fall back
into the 40s friday afternoon.

the next shortwave and resulting round of cyclogenesis will eject
out of the four corners northeast into the ohio valley and great
lakes on saturday with renewed chances for rain. rainfall locally
should be rather light as deeper moisture gets shunted off well to
the east-southeast. the low also doesn`t really deepen and partially
phase with an incoming northern stream upper low until it reaches
the central great lakes. still do expected colder air and scattered
periodic snow shower chances (highest near lake mi) to wrap in on
the southern fringes of the larger circulation saturday night into
sunday. tranquil wx then follows into monday and most of tuesday
before an low-mid level trough drops southeast with chances for
light rain and snow later tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1241 pm est thu jan 8 2026

a deep surface low was over eastern ks and was moving
north/northeast. to the east of the low, areas of showers were
moving northeast across mo and il. this activity will reach
northern indiana and bring rain to both terminals. made small
adjustments in the ongoing timing of the activity in the tafs.
otherwise, mvfr and some ifr conditions are likely to persist.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
738
fxus63 kdtx 082009
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
309 pm est thu jan 8 2026

.key messages...

- mild tonight and friday. widespread rain showers tonight.

- windy friday, gusts 35 to 45 mph possible.

- rain and wet snow saturday transitions to snow showers saturday
night and sunday. snow squalls are possible sunday.

&&

.discussion...

the mid level short wave feature now over the central us will lift
across the northern great lakes friday, while the associated sfc low
tracks across the straits region early fri morning. there will be an
impressive wind field through a deep layer in advance of this wave,
with a 60-70 knot 925mb low level wind maximum forecast to lift
across se mi overnight. this will make for efficient moisture
transport into lower mi ahead of the associated sfc cold front.
ongoing gulf moisture influx is already underway across the southern
and mid mississippi valley, with the 12z model suite in good general
agreement of precipitable water values rising to 1.1 to 1.3 inches
across se mi overnight. the initial surge in mid level theta e
advection will occur this evening, resulting in a region of light
rain progressing northward across the area. persistent isentropic
ascent and weak elevated instability within the moist axis will
sustain occasional showers through the night, with some isolated
thunderstorms possible. a line of shallow convection is also
forecast to accompany the sfc cold front across se mi in the 15z to
18z time frame friday.

the suite of ensemble members indicate some variance on potential
surface gusts tonight into friday morning, which results in the
difference between advisory criteria gusts (45m ph) or sub advisory
winds. this uncertainty is related to boundary layer stability
concerns. southerly flow will drive temperatures well into the 50s
tonight. given current temps across the ohio vally, the potential
for a few locals to break 60 fri morning prior to fropa can not be
ruled out. even with this degree of warming in the boundary layer,
mixing depths within the prefrontal warm sector will be quite
limited, supportive of holding wind gusts below 45 mph. there will
be shallow frontogenetical forcing along the sfc front friday, which
leads to an increased risk of a second period of stronger gusts
within the immediate post frontal subsidence region as low level
lapse quickly steepening with the onset of cold air advection. this
is the period of concern for potential advisory level wind gusts.
the potential brevity of the ideal mixing profile corresponding with
the axis of strong winds argues holding off on the issuance of a
wind advisory for friday this forecast cycle.

amplification of an upper wave in the lee of the canadian rockies
friday is forecast to evolved into a deep closed upper low over the
western great lakes saturday. associated surface cyclogenesis is
forecast across the eastern great lakes. a deep layer moist plume
continues to be shown by model solutions to be shunted east of the
region, with a continued trend toward non phasing with a southern
stream wave. an initial influx of positive mid level vorticity
advection across se mi saturday will support a good chance for
precipitation. the thermal profile across the forecast area gives
higher chances for rain across the eastern half of the forecast
area, with wet snow favored across the west. the upper low will move
across lower mi and lake huron saturday night and sunday. the
combination of wrap around moisture, a mid level cold pool and lake
enhancement will set the stage for occasional snow showers, some of
which may be briefly intense.

&&

.marine...

a strong low pressure system remains on track to traverse from the
central plains into the northern great lakes through tomorrow
morning. the pressure gradient will quickly strengthen with the
arrival of the low, which will result in sustained wind speeds of 20
to 30 knots late tonight through tomorrow morning. despite the very
stable low level profiles, the strength of the pressure gradient
will likely afford a window for some low-end gales favored across
southern and central lake huron, where gale warnings remain in
place.

a strong cold front will then move across the great lakes as
the low pressure system departs, which will veer wind direction from
south to northwest. cold air behind the front will rapidly decrease
over lake stability and will boost mixing depths, bringing higher
confidence for gust to gales leading into the evening hours.
immediately along and behind the front, a quick pop of an isolated
gust to high-end gales around 45 knots will be likely in the
afternoon across lake huron. a change to note for this afternoon
forecast is the addition of a gale warning for northern lake huron
as confidence regarding gust to gales has increased behind the cold
front.

small craft advisories remain in place for all ice free nearshore
zones, where gusts around 30 knots will be likely through tomorrow.
the exception will be along and immediately behind the
aforementioned cold front, where a quick pop to gust to gales wil be
likely. last, widespread rain will accompany the low pressure system
tonight and tomorrow. high pressure rapidly builds in behind the
cold front, diminishing stronger winds leading into saturday.

&&

.hydrology...

occasional rain showers will affect the entire region tonight into
friday morning. there is moderate to high probabilities for a
quarter inch of rain, with lower probabilities for a half inch to
inch. the saginaw valley region has a little higher total qpf
probabilities, with low chances for total rain to exceed one inch.
the rainfall amounts are not expected to be enough to produce
flooding.

&&

.climate...

the record high temps for friday, january 9th.

detroit: 55 degrees (set in 1949)
flint: 54 degrees (set in 1939)
saginaw: 54 degrees (set in 1939)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1232 pm est thu jan 8 2026

aviation...

strong warm advection precedes the arrival of low pressure tracking
into the western great lakes late this evening, with a powerful low-
level wind field passing through tonight into friday. a degree of
stability will be maintained below the low-level inversion at 2 to 3
kft, keeping the higher magnitude of wind aloft. however, southerly
wind atop this layer increases from 40-45 kt this afternoon to 50-60
kt overnight. despite some gustiness reaching the boundary layer,
elected to include llws mention in the taf overnight. showers
associated with the low arrive from the sw late this evening and
overnight ahead of the cold front. there will be a chance for
thunder with the initial showers around midnight but left ts out of
taf for now. mvfr conditions will gradually spread eastward during
this period with some pockets of ifr possible overnight. the cold
front then passes through the region midday friday, accompanied by a
line of showers and a wind shift from s to sw to nw. gusts are
likely to near or exceed 30 kt through the early afternoon,
especially along the front.

for dtw... arrival of rain showers is anticipated between 03z and
05z tonight with mvfr working in during the early morning hours.
relatively low confidence exists for ifr friday morning. core of 50+
kt wind aloft will be centered between 03z and 12z friday. shift to
sw (220 deg) wind direction around 15z then w (260 deg) around 18z
brings potential to exceed crosswind thresholds.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet after 03z tonight.

* low for thunderstorms late this evening.

* moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold between 15z and 20z
friday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from noon to 7 pm est friday for lhz361.

gale warning from midnight tonight to 7 pm est friday for lhz362-
363-462-463.

small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...sc
marine.......am
hydrology....sc
climate......sc
aviation.....tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.