Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
882
fxus61 kcle 141933
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
333 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

.what has changed...
shower onset on saturday has delayed a bit, especially across
eastern counties. chance of thunder remains, but given the
timing widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.
heavy rain remains the primary concern.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms become more widespread late
saturday through sunday. heavy rain is the primary concern with
a few stronger storms possible sunday afternoon and evening.

2) high pressure should provide some relief from precipitation
for the start of next week before rain chances return midweek.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the nearly stationary boundary that has lingered across the ohio
valley will finally begin to move on saturday, lifting north as
a warm front. this boundary couple with a midlevel shortwave
will result in widespread showers pushing across the area
beginning saturday afternoon into the evening. there is a narrow
corridor roughly from findlay to marion where some strong to
severe storms may occur with strong winds the primary threat,
but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. this corridor is the
most likely to see these as daytime instability increases
concurrent with the synoptic forcing. as the storms slowly
spread east, areas will gradually begin to lose that daytime
instability keeping the severe potential to a minimum. by late
tomorrow evening, the entire area should see some showers. to
highlight the scattered severe potential, spc has kept the
corridor from marion to findlay in a day 2 slight with a
marginal extending further east to a line extending roughly from
sandusky to canton.

the bigger concern with these widespread showers is the very
heavy and efficient rainfall that is expected to be associated
with them. deepening warm cloud layers combined with pwat values
in excess of 2" falling on already saturate surfaces could
result in localized flooding. at times, storm motion may also
becoming parallel to mean flow, suggesting the potential for
isolated training storms to develop which would only enhance the
flood potential. to highlight this concern, wpc has put the
entire area (except far neoh and nwpa) in a day 2 slight risk
ero.


key message 2...
after this shortwave and associated surface low move a cold
front east on sunday, high pressure is expected to build east
over the area and allow for a brief reprieve from precipitation
across the area for the start of next week. chances of
precipitation look to increase wednesday into thursday as a low
pressure system moves into the region from the central us.
models have this midweek system developing into a more robust
synoptic trough with more support aloft. model timing and
positioning of this low still diverge quite a bit, but this may
be another period to keep an eye on for heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe weather.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
rain has largely ended across the area this afternoon, with a
few scattered showers around wooster and canton. showers and
mvfr ceilings will diminish after 21z for most terminals, with
a high vfr ceiling and light/variable winds persisting into the
evening. this will favor development of ifr fog across the
southern portion of the region overnight, along and south of a
line from fdy to yng. pockets of dense fog are likely in this
area, especially around cak/akr. conditions will improve to vfr
after 15z tomorrow, with winds becoming south-southeasterly at
5-10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms return
saturday night through sunday evening. high pressure will build
behind a cold front monday afternoon and continue into wednesday
morning.

&&

.marine...
as high pressure exits the upper great lakes, low pressure and
its associated frontal system will move eastward across the
upper great lakes. a warm front will cross lake erie saturday
night into sunday morning, followed by a cold front sunday
evening into sunday night. offshore flow, meeting or exceeding
20 knots, is possible saturday. chances for winds >20 knots and
waves >4 ft increase sunday into sunday night, as winds shift
out of the west to northwest. a small craft advisory and beach
hazard statement may be needed this forecast period.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...27
marine...27

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
050
fxus63 kiwx 141726
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

.key messages...

- there is a slight risk for severe weather on saturday with two rounds
of storms possible. one round of storms between 5-10 am edt
and another from 2-11 pm edt. damaging winds will be the main
threat.

- heavy rain and scattered flooding continue to pose threats through
the weekend.

- dry conditions return monday and tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 125 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on
saturday, august 15th, although the forecast is still somewhat
uncertain due to potential for two separate rounds of storms. a
stationary front that has brought multiple rounds of rain and
storms over the past few days will lift northward saturday
morning as a warm front, bringing the warm and humid airmass
back overhead. synoptically, our northwest flow `ring of fire`
pattern continues with a building ridge over the south central
us. cams are in solid agreement that an mcs develops in iowa
tonight and that this will be the feature to watch into tomorrow
morning. this mcs should move east through northern illinois
and reach northwest indiana between 08-11z saturday morning.
despite the diurnally unfavorable timing, this system should
maintain its strength given adequate 0-6 km shear of 35-40 kts.
given a linear storm mode, damaging winds will be the main
threat from ~5 to 10 am edt saturday. this system should weaken
as it pushes east, so i`d expect the best potential for any
strong to severe storms to be mainly west of in-15 in northwest
and north central indiana. another round of strong to severe
storms is possible in the afternoon and evening, mainly between
2-11 pm edt along and east of i-69 in the slight risk area.
models vary widely on a solution but 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear,
100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 srh, and a narrow corridor of moderate
instability (up to 2000 j/kg sbcape) may develop. this would be
a favorable environment for damaging winds and an isolated,
brief tornado. the afternoon round is highly conditional
depending on what happens in the morning and if there is any
cloud debris leftover that prevents clearing. it`s possible that
the morning round may be the main show and that nothing
develops in the afternoon and evening if the atmosphere is
worked over.

additional showers and storms are possible sunday, although they are
expected to be sub-severe. wpc does have our entire forecast area in
a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on saturday and
areas south of us 24 in a marginal risk on sunday. given that the
ground is so saturated south of us 30, where 6-10"+ of rain has
fallen since this past tuesday, it won`t be hard to have scattered
occurrences of renewed flooding. far northern indiana, northwest
ohio, and far southern lower michigan have escaped the worst of the
rain recently but should repeated rounds of showers and storms track
over these areas saturday and again sunday, some concern for
flooding could develop. precipitable water values will once again be
at or above 2 inches, with the nam and rap even suggesting potential
for them to be as high as 2.5 inches! with such high moisture
content in the airmass overhead (99th percentile pwats), any storm
could be efficient rainfall producer with rain rates between 1-2"
per hour. turn around, don`t drown if you encounter a flooded
roadway! in addition, depending on where the heaviest rain falls,
some rivers in northeast and east-central indiana that are currently
in action or minor flood stage may stay steady or see rises this
weekend.

a welcome break from daily rain and storm chances is ahead! we
finally see a reprieve in the `ring of fire` pattern monday and
tuesday as high pressure briefly builds across the great lakes for
36-48 hours. this will allow for the area to dry out, floodwaters to
recede, and for river levels to fall. temperatures will be
seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

another chance for rain and storms comes wednesday with a cold
front, although it may be short lived. medium and long range
guidance hints at potential for another dry period by the end of the
week into next weekend.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 112 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

showers and thunderstorms are developing over northwest indiana,
drifting southeast. it appears the northern edge of this
development will be south of ksbn, but trends be monitored.
meanwhile, some of this activity appears on track to drift over
kfwa, or at least mvfr ceilings will.

the forecast is murky during the overnight hours with some
indication that showers and isolated thunderstorms may fester
through the the night. in contrast, there is much better
agreement in model guidance that a line of showers and
thunderstorms approaches from the west around 12z. the trailing
stratiform rain shield looks to linger through the remainder of
the period, perhaps paired with ifr conditions.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
208
fxus63 kdtx 141942
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
342 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

.key messages...

- increasing chances for showers and possibly some thunderstorms
tomorrow. heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding is possible,
particularly along and south of the i-94 corridor.

- showers and thunderstorms chances continue through sunday.

&&

.discussion...

outside of a very low chance for a stray shower along a convergent
lake boundary derived from lake st. clair/lake erie, dry conditions
continue under the influence of a high pressure system that will
progress across ontario. attention will turn back to active
conditions across the upper mid-west/plains surrounding organization
and progression of an mcs/mcv. progression of this system into the
southern great lakes/ohio river valley is expected through the day
tomorrow, into the evening hours. specifically for the southern
great lakes, the thermodynamic environment remains unfavorable for
organized strong convection. pre-storm environment highlights
essentially absent surface-based instability with mucape building to
a few hundred j/kg towards i-94 through the day. the more meaningful
instability gradient is expected to develop and hold across central
indiana through southern ohio, which is where the bulk of convective
activity is expected to reside. if any developing mcv takes a
slightly more northern trajectory relative to modeled guidance, this
could locally augment ascent and modify the kinematic/thermodynamic
environment and bring stronger storm potential, but current guidance
offers little indication that these meso processes would be
sufficient to over the broad scale deficiencies. this scenario is
highlighted in the latest swody2 where a marginal risk for severe
weather holds along/south of i-94.

much more plausible will be increasing rain shower chances as deep
moisture increases ahead of the system. pw values rise aoa 2 inches,
near the 99.5th percentile w.r.t august climatology. aforementioned
weak instability with poor mid-level lapse rates should limit
convective potential, though some isolated embedded thunder and
locally heavy rainfall remains possibly given the nature of the
subtropical airmass. rain and thunderstorm chances to continue
through sunday with better instability in place. passage of this
system with convectively enhanced low pressure will help to push a
weak cold front across the region. rain chances end after passage of
the front late sunday night to monday morning. drier conditions are
favored through the early week period with highs holding in the low
80s.

&

&&

.marine...

high pressure now centered over northern lake superior on its way to
the eastern lakes by saturday morning. winds are mostly under 10
knots across the waters but northeasterly flow could lead to some
locally higher gusts in saginaw bay and southern lake huron this
afternoon and evening. winds then turn southerly late saturday and
increase to around 20 knots ahead of a cold front that will sweep
through saturday night. this front will bring the next chance of
thunderstorms to the region as well. winds then shift to the
northwest on sunday behind the front.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 148 pm edt fri aug 14 2026

aviation...

predominately vfr conditions expected to prevail through this taf
period. high coverage of lower diurnal cumulus have developed over
bulk of taf sides, excluding mbs. isolated pop up showers are being
supported within a weakly forced environment. coverage of showers
should remain isolated enough to keep mention out of taf sites for
now. high pressure has lead to some variability to the winds across
the southern metro terminals, but a light e/ne wind will become more
dominate into the late afternoon and tonight.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms anticipated during the taf
forecast period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less through this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......drk
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.