Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
711
fxus61 kcle 041804
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
204 pm edt sat apr 4 2026

.what has changed...
severe weather and flooding remain possible this afternoon and
evening with storms ahead of a cold front. a colder pattern shift
early next week will allow for periodic precipitation and the
potential for some accumulating snowfall in ne oh and nw pa on
monday night.

&&

.key messages...
1) severe weather and flooding remain possible this afternoon and
evening with storms ahead of a cold front. the main window for
strong to severe storms remains from 3 to 10 pm. flooding remains a
concern in north central ohio, where area rivers and creeks still
have high flows. additional rain this afternoon and evening may
allow for flooding to linger into sunday.

2) a pattern shift begins on sunday and will carry through tuesday
with cooler than normal temperatures and scattered rain/snow
chances, especially in lake effect/upslope areas of ne oh and nw pa.
some light snow accumulations are possible in the snow belt area on
monday night.

3) the pattern will shift again starting in the middle of the week
with temperatures returning to normal and at least one day of dry
weather on wednesday. rain chances may return late in the week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
overall, the severe weather setup continues as advertised
across the area. the warm front wraps around the southern shore
of lake erie this afternoon. the toledo metro started cool this
morning but the front has surged north to at least the state
line. over in nw pa, the front is struggling to get to the city
of erie with cold northeast flow off the lake, but the front may
still have some time to get there. otherwise, temperatures are
doing well in the warm sector with widespread 70s and some
record high temperatures have already been achieved. winds are
mixing down fairly well in the warm sector with 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts throughout central ohio and spreading north.

there are two areas to look for severe weather this afternoon. the
first concerning area will be from north central ohio and east. a
cumulus field has filled in across the area this afternoon. more
robust cumulus is seen extending from the lake erie islands south
through columbus into southern ohio. these clouds have the ability
to develop this afternoon and may turn into scattered showers and
storms that will move through the eastern half of the area. there is
a fair amount of low level instability that will build ahead of this
future area of convection that will not have anything working over
the atmosphere ahead it. however, the one limiting factor is a
slight cap from 500-650 mb that really weakens the mid-level lapse
rates and could prevent convection from forming ahead of the main
cold front. the other concerning area will be with the ongoing
convection ahead of the cold front that is crossing the in/oh state
line. this line has already produced some just sub-severe wind gusts
in indiana and will enter an environment that will become
increasingly favorable for severe wind gusts this afternoon with
better dcape and low level lapse rates. the limiting factor for this
line will be any convection that develops ahead of it that could
work over the atmosphere and diminish the wind threat.

for the flooding threat through tonight, storms will be progressive
across the area with at best two rounds of precipitation expected.
overall, the qpf forecast remains limited with one inch of rain or
less expected with the rain ahead of the cold front. there is
ongoing flooding of note in north central ohio, mainly in the
mohican river basins, and flooding here may be slower to recede with
this next round of rain. flooding outside of this region would be
limited to localized urban issues where ffg values have lowered over
the past week.

key message 2...
tonight`s cold front will be the start of a significant pattern
change across the region. sunday`s high temperatures are likely
to be early in the morning before the main cold front rolls
through the region. cold advection will persist across the area
on sunday as the main upper trough axis moves through the great
lakes region. this trough could allow for some modest lift to
allow for some light rain showers on sunday, especially downwind
of lake erie where there could be some upslope in the higher
hills of ne oh and nw pa. for monday into monday night, a
secondary push of energy will move aloft through the region and
provide more lift for precipitation. with 850 mb temperatures in
the -6 to -8c range, there will be the opportunity for some
lake enhanced precipitation with some upslope enhancement as
well and have increased pops for this period. on monday night, a
more firm changeover to snow is likely and snow accumulations
are possible in the hills of ne oh/nw pa. it would not be
unreasonable to see 1-3" of snow by tuesday morning where
scattered snow showers persist.


key message 3...
the cooler high pressure system from earlier in the week will
shift east and allow for warmer, return flow into the region.
temperatures will return back to normal on wednesday with upper
50s and dry conditions. there is still some uncertainty on the
timing of the late week system and cold front with some guidance
suggesting rain ahead of this feature entering on thursday and
other guidance suggesting that rain hold off until friday.
temperatures may get a bit warmer into the 60s ahead of this
front but not near the 70s and 80s from this afternoon.
therefore, any storm potential seems low at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
vfr conditions at the onset of the period will give way to mvfr
conditions in shra and possible tsra at the terminals as a strong
cold front pushes east during the first half of the period. there
will generally be a 2-3 hour window for the best tsra potential at
the terminals ahead of the front, followed by more widespread shra
and lowered ceilings with the frontal passage. rain ends from west
to east in the 04-08z timeframe across the area with lingering mvfr
ceilings possible. gusty southwest winds ahead of the cold front
this afternoon may reach 30-35 kts at terminals, especially west,
before winds veer more westerly behind the front for the second half
of the period. lingering gusts in the 20-25 kt range possible behind
the front.

outlook...non-vfr with low ceilings may linger through sunday.
non- vfr may return monday and monday night in rain and/or snow
showers.

&&

.marine...
winds across lake erie are currently 10-15 knots out of the east to
northeast and will shift to be out of the south by this afternoon
with the western basin increasing to around 15-20 knots. a strong
cold front will move across the region this evening quickly shifting
winds to out of the west by late tonight. stronger winds may be
possible within showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves
through winds will stay elevated through sunday with sustained
winds of 15-20 knots and waves increasing to 3-5 feet. a small craft
advisory will be needed for early sunday morning through monday
morning when winds and waves begin to subside. winds will increase
again tuesday with a cold front passing through the region and will
likely warrant another small craft advisory. high pressure will
begin to build into the region on wednesday and quieter marine
conditions are expected.

&&

.climate...
new high temperature records are occurring at area climate sites
this afternoon. here are the current record high temperatures
for all six of our climate sites for april 4:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
04-04 78(1882) 79(1921) 77(1882) 77(1921) 76(1981) 77(1928)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...03
marine...10/23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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847
fxus63 kiwx 041803
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
203 pm edt sat apr 4 2026

.key messages...

- rain and storms are expected across the area today with a cold
front pushing eastward which will allow for a decrease in
precipitation to occur from the west to the east through the
rest of today. heavy to moderate rain is still possible west
of i-69 where a flood watch remains in effect.

- severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds are
possible east of i-69 later this afternoon and into the early
evening.

- cooler and drier weather returns sunday-wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1222 pm edt sat apr 4 2026

with the warm front (quasi-stationary boundary) slowly pushing
northward into central mi and northern oh/lake erie we have
seen some clearing taking place mainly south and east of i-69
where temperatures have been allowed to shoot up into the 70s
meanwhile back within the cloud shield associated with the
previously mentioned boundary and a cold front associated with
an occluding surface low pressure system currently centered over
central mn and moving slowly eastward have been cooler. the
western and northern portions of the area with the cloud cover
have only seen temperatures getting into the lower 60s this
afternoon. mesoscale guidance also puts the better instability
and shear values east of i-69 and the higher values to our
northeast. ml cape expected to be 1000 j/kg or less and the
surface bulk shear values around 40 to 50 kts. the fairly uni-
directional shear values aloft hint at the main threat being
strong straight line winds. of course there is some weak
helicity especially to our northeast and closer to the
warm/stationary boundary where a few quick tornado spin ups
would be possible. the best timing still looks to be after 1 pm
through around 7 pm edt and most of the activity looks to move
eastward out of the cwa after that period.

with the cold front pushing through the area tonight we will see
a cooler and drier airmass push in for the easter sunday and
into the middle of the week. highs for easter and through
wednesday will be much cooler only getting into the mid 40s to
lower 50s for sunday and monday and a touch cooler on tuesday
with highs only in the 40s across the area. a few weak
disturbances will ripple through the region within the northwest
flow aloft with a slight chance of showers returning on late
sunday night into monday morning with the best chances north of
us-30. a few snow showers could mix in with the rain for our far
northern portions of the cwa in southern mi but impacts not
expected at this time. low temperatures on monday morning will
range from the lower 30s to our northeastern locations and in
the upper 30s for the southwestern parts of the cwa. we will be
watching carefully the cold low temperatures on tuesday morning
with clearing skies allowing for better radiational cooling lows
on tuesday morning will get down into the low to upper 20s with
again the colder temperatures in our north and east. would not
be a bad idea to cover any frost susceptible plants with the dip
in temperatures.

wednesday we start to see ridging over the middle of the conus
push eastward into the region and bring a warming trend into the
weekend with highs by wednesday returning into the 60s and by
thursday through saturday getting warmer into the mid 60s to low
70s into the weekend. there is the expectation that we may see
periods of showers and even a few thunderstorms through the
remainder of the period with a trough settling in just to the
north of the area. thinking the afternoon periods would be when
the chances of the showers/t-storms would be higher. will have
to see how the synoptic pattern plays out here in the coming
days.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 135 pm edt sat apr 4 2026

mvfr to ifr conditions expected through the majority of this
forecast period. with a cold front moving eastward through the
area will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and a few
thunderstorms especially for kfwa from 18z to 23z sat with the
vsbys dropping down to around 2sm with the heavier downpours.
conditions expected to improve in the wake of the cold front
with cigs increasing, however there is some uncertainty with the
very moist surfaces with the abundance of rain recently that
some scattered lower mvfr clouds may hang on through the end of
this taf period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 5 pm edt /4 pm cdt/ this afternoon for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz078>080-177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
786
fxus63 kdtx 041939
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
339 pm edt sat apr 4 2026

.key messages...

- a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for monroe county.
damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and a brief spin up tornado are
possible.

- a flood watch is in effect for the majority of southeast michigan
as additional rainfall falls on top of ongoing minor flooding and
rising rivers.

- below normal temperatures sunday through early next week.

&&

.discussion...

a couple of near-term items to note, including the issuance of the
severe thunderstorm watch and the flood watch. for the severe
watch... still looking at a small geographic footprint for severe
weather as the northern edge of a line of storms reaches extreme
southeastern michigan. surface instability is still not convincing
compared to counties just a row south, but the main concern is how
the inbound cells will interact with the boundary layer and the
strength of the cold pool that has developed. storm mode and slight
bowing look to the incoming cell lends to a damaging wind threat if
these storms are still surface based. highly convergent, backed flow
at the cusp of the marine layer is also a concern for a brief spin
up tornado, which is being monitored closely. there has been brief
rotation observed with these cells. the severe weather threat is
mainly confined to monroe county with storms elsewhere remaining
elevated (confirmed by backed wind profiles and temperatures still in
the 50s). the severe threat ends as this line moves into ontario,
likely by 5pm. flood watch issuance will be discussed in the
hydrology section.

post-frontal cold advection drops h8 temperatures into the negative
single digits tonight, allowing lows to fall into the mid to upper
30s sunday morning. multiple shortwave perturbations carve through
the mean flow to reinforce longwave troughing across eastern conus
through mid-week, leading to a stretch of below normal temperatures
across the great lakes. one such perturbation glances across the
area mid-day sunday, engaging remnant boundary layer moisture and
instability to generate scattered showers, possibly mixed with
melting snowflakes as highs only reach the low to mid 40s. breezy
west winds (gusts of 30-35 mph) are also expected tonight-sunday as
the parent low peels away, only gradually drawing its gradient wind
field with it.

unsettled weather persists into the early week period as broad
troughing holds steady overhead. this sends a series of progressive
shortwaves into the great lakes between late sunday night and
tuesday morning. there is a glancing shot for a rain-snow mix early
monday morning as the first of these waves arrives, although with
minimal impacts as morning lows only briefly touch freezing. better
opportunity for snowflakes to mix in exists with a second wave
monday night, but this time with strong cold advection surging in
behind it. could even see a dusting of accumulation over the thumb
while temperatures plummet into the low 20s across the state by
tuesday morning. both of these waves have only modest
forcing/moisture prospects, but steep mid level lapse rates (nearly
7.0 c/km) could briefly enhance rates at times or result in ice
pellets/graupel development.

high pressure then returns for tuesday into the mid-week period
while return flow re-establishes the gulf connection for the latter
half of the week.

&&

.marine...

broad low pressure passes northeast across the central great lakes
this evening. widespread showers will continue with embedded
thunderstorms focused mainly across western lake erie, lake st.
clair, and southern lake huron. isolated storms may be strong to
severe through this evening. southeast wind veers around to
southwest tonight, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt as
cold advection ensues. wind direction continues veering to westerly
on sunday, with an uptick in magnitude expected. a gale watch has
been issued for northern lake huron with gusts to 35 kt increasingly
likely there. elsewhere, gusts of 20 to 30 kt will be more likely
before wind diminishes and veers to northwest sunday night. small
craft advisories are in effect for the lake huron nearshore waters
through this period. a clipper system passes through on monday with
an uptick in northwest winds expected monday night in its wake.
cooler northwest flow persists into tuesday.

&&

.hydrology...

rainfall this morning led to widespread rain totals of 1 to 3
inches, with additional rain moving in this afternoon and early
evening. reports of areal flooding and rises on area rivers will be
exacerbated by this additional rainfall, which may exceed one inch in
some locations especially in any thunderstorms. a flood watch has
been issued to account for the worsening of ongoing flooding issues
with this next round of rain. several river flood warnings are in
effect at issuance. the heavy rainfall threat ends this evening with
drier conditions forecast sunday through middle of next week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 146 pm edt sat apr 4 2026

aviation...

while a pocket of vfr skies have developed across the southern metro
terminals, these will quickly fill back into ifr to mvfr as a line
of showers and thunderstorms marches through southeast michigan this
afternoon. ongoing showers along the line currently across mbs and
fnt will eventually move eastward and pick up intensity during the
19z to 22z period. greatest thunderstorms threat will be across the
south near the better instability, but will maintain a window for
thunderstorms across the north for elevated thunder. the overnight
period carries some uncertainty with cloud trends, but will maintain
a lower ifr/mvfr cloud deck into the overnight. west winds will be
gusty to 20-25 knots behind the front this evening.

for dtw...line of showers and potential for strong thunderstorms to
develop between 19z and 22z today. surface instability will struggle
to lift towards the metro terminals, but elevated thunderstorms with
gusty thunderstorms winds will be possible in this time frame.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through this afternoon. low
tonight.

* moderate for thunderstorms between 19z and 22z this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch until midnight edt tonight for miz047-048-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076.

lake huron...gale watch from sunday morning through sunday afternoon for lhz361-
362.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt sunday for lhz421-441>443.

small craft advisory until 10 pm edt sunday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......tf
hydrology....mv
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.