Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
196
fxus61 kcle 021746
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
146 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast with elevated heat risk and severe
weather the main impacts today and thursday.

&&

.key messages...
1) elevated heat risk conditions continue today for ohio as heat
indices will be in the upper 90s to low 100s.

2) there will be severe weather potential across northeastern ohio
and northwestern pennsylvania this morning through overnight
tonight.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
well above normal temperatures will continue today along with
increased dew points keeping heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s. the upper level ridge continues to be in place across the
southern conus allowing for persistent west to southwesterly flow
across the region to continue today into the overnight. this will
push highs today a touch warmer into the low 90s with dew points
climbing into the low to mid 70s again. heat indices as a result
will rise up into the upper 90s to low 100s. portions of western
ohio will be warmer than to the east as there should be limited
precipitation and cloud cover for much of the day. for cleveland
eastward, precipitation is expected this morning and again in the
evening, but there should be a long enough break in between to allow
for temperatures to climb quickly. for the northwestern pennsylvania
areas, they will be far enough east to were temperatures shouldn`t
climb up into the 90s, therefore heat indices will be below advisory
criteria. with that being said, it still will feel hot with heat
indices in the mid 90s, and precautions should be taken as needed.
overnight lows wednesday into thursday will still be elevated as
well into the low to mid 70s offering little relief. heat risk will
stay elevated at a level 3 out of 4 for the entire cwa due to this.

thursday will start to bring some relief to the region as a cold
front approaches from the north and more widespread precipitation is
expected at some point during the day. western and central ohio will
still have elevated heat indices and heat risk though, as
precipitation will not have reached before peak heating. there is
some uncertainty in this as morning convection may be moving across
the area that would limit the high temperatures for the day. if the
convection does not pan out, then thinking is that an area from
roughly wayne/holmes northwest to lucas will need an extension in
the advisory. the remainder of the eastern portions of the cwa
should have enough precipitation and cloud cover to keep
temperatures and heat indices down in the upper 80s and low to mid
90s respectively.

temperatures will begin to regulate friday into the weekend to more
seasonal as canadian high pressure builds south into the region.
highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend.

key message 2...
more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning
through the overnight hours. for this morning, there is a shortwave
trough located over southern ontario that will push southeastward
into new york through the mid-morning. this will help support
scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning across northeastern
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. there will be some instability
in place along with around 40 knots of bulk shear that, if storms
organize, could support damaging wind gusts. will monitor upstream
in southern ontario and eastern michigan for storm formation, but
currently storms across western michigan have started to weaken and
the environment may not be suitable for thunderstorm development.

there will be a break in the showers and precipitation once the
shortwave moves eastward and the next shortwave enters the region
later this afternoon/evening. this will allow for instability to
build back to around 2000 j/kg and lapse rates of 7-7.5 c/km across
eastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. bulk shear will also in
the neighborhood of 30-40 knots in that same region. thunderstorm
development is possible ahead of the shortwave with a more linear
mode expected with the shortwave later in the evening. the western
extent of this feature is still uncertain and could reach as far
west as cleveland. the highest confidence in thunderstorms currently
for this evening is across far northeastern ohio and in northwestern
pennsylvania. this is shown in spc`s day 1 severe weather outlook as
there is a slight risk (level 3 of 5) from a line from toledo
southeast to canton and eastward with higher probabilities for
severe winds in northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.
damaging winds will be the main threat with todays storms, though
large hail will also be a factor with the increased lapse rates and
instability. a quick spin up tornado is also possible though 0-1 km
bulk shear is minimal, so the threat is on the low end.
thunderstorms should exit to the southeast around midnight.
given the warm, moist environment over the region, pwat values
will be around 1.5-2.00" across the region. the will bring the
threat for heavy rain with any thunderstorms and could cause
isolated flooding issues if there are persistent rainfall over
and area.

additional thunderstorms are possible early thursday morning as well
though there is still a lot of uncertainty in where and the severity
of these as it will be dependent on the storms from wednesday
evening. a cold front will approach from the north throughout the
day on thursday that will bring more widespread precipitation to the
region. the severe weather threat will be more focused on central
ohio with the better instability and lapse rates, though can`t rule
out any storms to become severe across the region ahead of the
front. the front will be slow to move to the south and should exit
by late thursday night.

lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible friday as another
shortwave moves through the region, though the severe threat should
be lower than previous days. high pressure builds into the region
from the north and should persist through the weekend with dry
weather expected.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
the airspace is starting with vfr conditions with some variable
cloudiness behind a round of storms in ne oh/nw pa this morning
and ahead of a developing line of storms in se mi into lower
ontario. the line of storms to the northwest will fill in over
the next couple of hours as they move east-southeast across lake
erie into the airspace. the most likely impacts are going to be
at keri, kyng, and kcle, although some convective activity could
reach kcak, kmfd, and ktol. another line of convective activity
stradles further north across lower michigan and will follow
east-southeast into the airspace later tonight, likely causing
some issues at similar terminals. there is lower confidence on
this round, as it will largely depend upon the first round
during the afternoon and evening hours.

there should be a reprieve in shower and storm activity during
the first part of the overnight hours, but additional shower and
storm activity is possible late tonight and again on thursday.
again, these are conditional on prior convective rounds. any
thunderstorms over a terminal will have ifr potential.

outlook... non-vfr possible in shower and storm activity through
thursday night.

&&

.marine...
severe storms have made their way across eastern lake erie and
into the coastal waters this morning, with several rounds of
storms likely across the lake today and tonight as a cold front
eventually drops south. wind gusts up to 40 knots are possible
in the strongest storms. outside of thunderstorms, southwest
winds with 1-3 foot waves are expected.

a gradual wind shift to the north will occur by thursday night
behind the cold front, with winds diminishing friday. northeast
flow over the weekend could result in some choppy conditions
with waves of 1-3 feet.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...sefcovic
marine...10/27

Fulton and Henry Counties

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722
fxus63 kiwx 021712
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
112 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity continue through thursday with peak heat indices
around 100 degrees, especially along and south of us 30.

- 20-30% chances of thunderstorms thursday, beginning prior to daybreak
mainly north of i-80/i-90 then expanding area-wide by the
afternoon and evening. storms may produce damaging winds. low
confidence at this time.

- 30-60% chances for showers and storms area-wide late thursday
evening into friday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

heat and humidity persist today with high temperatures expected to
be in the upper 80s to low 90s. the upper level ridge is directly
over the great lakes with a large area of surface high pressure
anchored over the southeastern conus. ample waa will continue to
boost temperatures well above average for early september. increased
moisture return stemming from the gulf will also allow for dewpoints
in the mid 70s to continue. the heat advisory continues for the
entire forecast area until 8 pm edt; it has been extended to last
until 8 pm edt friday for counties along and south of us 30 in
indiana and ohio. confidence is growing that heat indices will
be at or slightly above 100 degrees tomorrow in the vicinity of
the us 30 corridor, where there are lower chances for convection
and/or clouds. we should stay mainly dry today; originally
there was a low chance for a stray storm but given that an
outflow morning from remnant morning upstream convection is
already coming through and there is a downward trend on visible
satellite imagery for cloud cover, have opted to keep the area
dry today and tonight.

as the upper level ridge begins to flatten, our lower michigan
counties may be on the periphery. have maintained 15-20% chances for
isolated convection between 06-18z mainly north of i-80/i-90, with
broader 15-20% expanding into the entire area after 18z thursday
in line with the 12z suite of cams. thursday`s pops are highly
conditional depending on where/if any outflows or shortwaves
setup. depending on how much the ridge flattens and where the
best convective environment sets up, our area may see an active
pattern to end the week into the weekend ahead. hi- res and
medium range guidance suggests one or multiple mcss could move
through the area late thursday night through saturday. model
guidance continues to be all over the place in regards to timing
and exact location of storms thursday through the weekend,
however, in general, our hot and humid environment overhead will
be supportive for convection. we should have ample instability
and moisture to work with but other elements such as shear
remain in question due to considerable uncertainty on how the
larger synoptic evolution.

as mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a large spread on
the long range temperatures and evolution of the upper level ridge.
while the nbm has highs near 80 by late in the weekend into early
next week, there is still about a 10 degree spread in guidance
ranging from 75-85 degrees for highs. with troughing expected to
setup over the western conus, the upper level ridge may briefly
diminish over the weekend and then build back into the area early
into the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 105 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

a larger scale upper level trough continues to migrate eastward
this afternoon across eastern ontario/western quebec. another
smaller scale short wave across eastern north dakota will also
take an eastward track well north of the local area. with the
bulk of large scale forcing remaining north of the local area,
questions still remain as to extent of any convection as far
south as northern indiana through this period. another shot of
advective forcing is expected to overspread the southern great
lakes later tonight which could cause some elevated convection
to develop in vicinity of a slowly southward propagating
boundary across lower michigan. given the late timing and more
elevated nature to instability by this time, confidence remains
too low for shower/storm inclusion with the 12z tafs. may also
need to watch remnant outflow boundary across north central
indiana to southern lake huron vicinity for possible isolated
convection this afternoon due to moderate/strong instability.
current thinking is isolated convection along this boundary
would have greatest chances to the east and north of the
terminals. otherwise, vfr conditions expected this period with
low level gradient favoring continued south-southwest winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-103-104-203-204.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 021853
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
253 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

.key messages...

- a heat advisory remains in effect through the evening with heat
indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

- there is a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and
evening. damaging winds to 70 mph, hail to 1.5 inch, and an
isolated tornado threat are all possible.

- additional shower and thunderstorm chances thursday and friday.
heavy rainfall is possible.

&&

.discussion...

hot and humid conditions continue through the evening, boosted by
low 70s dewpoints and highs in the low 90s. this has brought peak
heat indices across the detroit metro region into the low 100s which
will linger through early evening, which has also established a
robust pool of instability across all of se michigan. question
remains how strong the cap is, which has limited convection from
fully blossoming in an otherwise favorable thermodynamic
environment. observational cues show this cap eroding across the
saginaw valley region and other boundaries outside of the cwa, while
inbound moisture suggests further erosion this evening.

swody1 slight risk thus persists given the conditionally favorable
severe environment. bulk parameters are impressive, as spc
mesoanalysis reports sbcape up to 4000 j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
over 40 knots due to a mid-level jet impulse aloft (h5 winds of 50-
55 knots). this should be supportive of organized multicellular
and/or supercellular structures as shear vectors are oriented ~45
degrees to the initiating boundaries. low confidence however exists
in the initial development of storms and subsequent
coverage/evolution as there will be multiple weak forcing mechanisms
in play. thus, a wide spectrum of outcomes expected across se
michigan, with the most bullish scenarios producing damaging winds
to 70 mph and hail over 1.5". these solutions carry higher
confidence for the saginaw valley/thumb than the metro detroit
region. while low level curvature is not prevalent attm, lake
breezes/ storm outflow could locally augment hodographs to support
an isolated tornado threat as well. progressive storm motion
generally limits long duration rainfall concerns this evening,
although heavy downpours are likely.

episodes of showers and thunderstorms then continue overnight
through the end of the work week, with low predictability in timing
and coverage. the unsettled pattern will be supported by a
baroclinic axis that lingers over se michigan over the next several
days, keeping plenty of instability around within a seasonably
hot/humid airmass. highs thursday again approach 90 degrees with
heat indices pushing well into the 90s to near 100 degree readings
in urban areas, depending on cloud cover/convective coverage. much
of our shower/thunderstorm chances will be determined by upstream
mcs development and the propagation of these systems into se
michigan as ridging builds over central conus. most likely cadence
for these storms (based on pattern recognition) is a wave of
nocturnal/early morning convection followed by reinvigoration of
storms later in the day with the peak heating cycle that repeats
until the front fully clears south of the state line this weekend.

the building ridge causes mid-level winds to veer from west to
northwest by end of week, drawing in cooler air that alters both low
and mid-level thermal profiles. ultimately this causes the severe
threat to decrease friday-the weekend, despite shower and storm
chances remaining in the forecast. a cooler pattern is expected this
weekend, with highs falling into the upper 70s.

&&

.marine...

winds and waves remain below threshold criteria across the central
great lakes, aside from a few thunderstorms passing through a very
muggy air mass this afternoon and evening. gradient winds will shift
from southwest to northwest once a weak cold front drops
southeastward through region. convective chances decrease a bit
overnight within the wake of the slowing front, and winds could
briefly trend towards calm. a low confidence forecast persist
through the end of the week and early this weekend as a ridge over
central conus remains quasi-stationary. this offers several
additional opportunities for periods of showers and thunderstorms.
mws and smw headlines will continued to be used to address short-
term local watercraft concerns. no long-fused headline concerns
through the weekend, although areas of dense fog could become an
issue again late tonight into thursday morning for portions of the
waterways.

&&

.hydrology...

first round of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across the
saginaw valley and thumb regions, with chances continuing overnight.
the hot and humid airmass will support heavy downpours within most
thunderstorms, although progressive nature of storms limits
duration. any strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce
a quick 1-2 inches of rain, which can lead to localized minor
flooding of roads and poor-drainage areas. there are currently no
indications of training storms, though more extensive flooding would
become a concern if a mature mcs develops or storms repeatedly
impact the same area.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 104 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

aviation...

frontal boundary sagging into southern lower mi offers chances for
thunderstorm development late this afternoon (north) into the
evening (south). very low confidence forecast in potential
thunderstorm coverage particularly towards the southern terminals
where some degree of capping is in place. for these sites, have only
added prob30 mentions to highlight the window of `best` potential.
while there is higher confidence in the north for scattered
thunderstorms, whether these impact mbs/fnt or are focused more
towards the thumb is the main sticking point. as such, maintained
inherited prob30s and will amend as needed once storms coalesce.
while the humid airmass offers a shot at some spotty overnight
convection, high-res models have trended drier tonight.

d21/dtw convection...the best chance for thunderstorms is north of
dtw toward the northern fringe of d21 this afternoon, but
thunderstorm chances may develop this evening between 21-00z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon-evening.

* low for thunderstorms this evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz068>070-075-076-
082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......kgk
hydrology....mv
aviation.....kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.