Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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754
fxus61 kcle 301133
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
733 am edt sun aug 30 2026

.what has changed...
chances for showers and isolated storms increasing slightly
across far northwest ohio this morning. increasing confidence
in excessive heat impacts by midweek.

&&

.key messages...
1) excessive heat risk increases monday through wednesday, with
heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 possible.

2) active storm track on the periphery of the ridge could bring
shower/storm activity to portions of the area sunday night
through wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
building surface/upper ridge over much of the eastern conus will
bring increasing temperatures and humidity through midweek.
nbm probs of 95f/100f continue to increase across the area
tuesday into wednesday, with wednesday looking like the hottest
day of the week. with a lingering frontal boundary just north of
the area through the first half of the week, some uncertainty
remains with heat potential as upstream convection and cloud
cover could limit heating during this period. however,
confidence is increasing for heat headline needed for at least a
portion of the area midweek.

key message 2...
continuing to monitor convective potential through midweek with
active zonal jet pattern through the great lakes and the local
area on the periphery of the ridge with building instability.
models are hinting at a few windows of convective potential for
the local area. aside front isentropic ascent/low level jet
forced convection upstream across northern in/southwest lower mi
early this morning that could sneak into northwest oh, next
best chance of impactful shower/storm activity across the area
is late tonight. low level jet refocuses isentropic ascent just
north of the forecast area, with training convection possibly
sneaking into northwest pa late tonight into monday morning.
some higher pmm qpf signals in the href/refs are enough to
consider at least a small chance of heavy rainfall somewhere in
the northwest pa/western ny area, with wpc highlighting the area
in a day 1 marginal risk for excessive rainfall. this could
result in very isolated flash flooding somewhere in the region,
but confidence is too low on coverage and placement at the
moment to warrant headlines or amplified messaging.

difficult to pinpoint convective potential beyond the next 24
hours or so given the pattern, but with quasi-zonal/northwest
flow through the great lakes into midweek and building
instability, there could be some organized convective complexes
that impact the area in the monday night through tuesday night
timeframe. ridging becomes more prominent across the local area
wednesday so would expect this day to be the least active
convection-wise, but chances increase across the area late
wednesday/thursday as a cold front sinks into the area.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
light showers are entering nw oh, though current observations
keep conditions at vfr. outside of the showers, ceilings will be
around 10kft through much of the taf period. there`s low
confidence in showers impacting terminals this taf period with
ktol and kcle being the only locations in ohio with enough
confidence to include a prob30 for this afternoon. keri has
higher confidence later this evening to see predominant showers
after 00z. winds will be at 5-10 knots out of the south this
morning then shift to be more southwesterly for most of the day
before shifting back to be more southerly after 01z.

outlook...non-vfr possible into monday with showers and
thunderstorms primarily across ne oh and nw pa. non-vfr possible
in showers and thunderstorms wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
unsettled marine conditions return today as a warm front will lift
north across the lake later today. this will bring the potential for
showers and thunderstorms which could result in isolated higher
winds and waves. generally, winds will be out of the south to
southwest at 5-10 knots through monday evening. winds will increase
on tuesday to 10-15 knots out of the southwest with waves building
to 1-3 feet in the open waters. the nearshore will be 2 feet or less
with the southwesterly flow. winds and waves will subside to 5-10
knots and less than 2 feet by early wednesday and continue through
thursday. additionally, there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the lake throughout the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...03
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 301021
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
621 am edt sun aug 30 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers are expected today from northwest indiana
extending northeast into south central lower michigan.
isolated thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather is not
expected.

- heat and humidity will build early this week with peak
afternoon heat indices expected to reach around 100 for
tuesday and wednesday afternoons.

- slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms (20-40%)
arrive for the second half of the upcoming week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt sun aug 30 2026

scattered showers continue to develop this morning from northern
illinois extending east across southern lake michigan into much of
central lower michigan. this showers are developing along an axis of
strengthening low/mid level theta-e advection and coincident
with strengthening isentropic upglide. some respectable
elevated moisture advection should provide some 100-300 j/kg
mucapes in a relatively narrow axis from northern illinois into
central lower michigan this morning where moisture transport
appears to be maximized this morning. a subtle, weak mid level
short wave also appears to be kicking out of northeast
iowa/southeast minnesota which should further enhance isentropic
forcing closer to 12z this morning. will maintain an isolated
thunder mention and scattered rain shower pops across these
locations. outside of this narrow mucape axis, low level
moisture transport is somewhat more limited across the remainder
of the forecast area, so some question as to southeast extent
of isolated thunder potential and higher pops. otherwise, warm
advection today should promote warmer conditions with highs in
the lower to middle 80s. scattered showers/cloud cover do make
this a below normal confidence temperature forecast today for
northwest half of the area where showers should be more
numerous.

by later this afternoon into this evening guidance generally agrees
that stronger isentropic lift in the 310-315k layer should become
focused across northwest ohio and approaching the eastern great
lakes, with another zone of stronger advective forcing taking shape
from se mn into southwest wi as a low level jet refocuses. it is
possible some low pops will need to be extended through tonight
across northern locations, but given this weakening trend in
advective forcing will keep pops below mentionable levels for most
areas.

for late tonight into monday, mid level ridge axis will shift across
the southern great lakes allowing more pronounced mid level waa and
warm 700 mb temps of +10 to +14 deg c to overspread local area.
it is possible some isoalted showers/storms could develop at
the nose of this stronger mid level waa but confidence is low
given lack of deeper mid/upper level forcing. heat concerns
start to increase for monday due to the persistent low level
warm/moist advection with peak afternoon heat indices expected
to reach the mid 90s.

by late monday night into tuesday low level flow is expected to veer
more west-southwest as longwave upper ridging gets somewhat
dampened by larger scale upper low across us/canadian border.
this westerly flow regime will allow low level theta-e ridge to
the west to become more firmly entrenched locally and may
result in heat indices around 100 degrees both tuesday and
wednesday afternoons. an associated cold front with the southern
canadian negative height anomaly is expected to drop across the
southern great lakes late wed into thu. a conservative approach
to pops still seems in order for late wednesday given stronger
dynamic forcing should be located well to the north of the local
area and likely persistence of warm mid level thermal profiles
and possible moderate surface based cin.

medium range guidance still suggests a transition to more
amplification of longwave pattern late this work week into next
weekend with position of mean upper ridge axis across central
conus. this should prevent additional significant heat concerns
but would likely result in episodes of higher pops as some
northwest flow waves interact with a potential instability
gradient across the region.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 618 am edt sun aug 30 2026

a veering low level jet and accompanying strong elevated warm/moist
advection will continue to allow for scattered shower
development this morning. an upstream upper speed max and a
weak, subtle mid level short wave ejecting out of the corn belt
will allow for continued strengthening of isentropic lift
across northern illinois/southern great lakes over the next
several hours. this advective forcing should result in greatest
coverage of rain showers at ksbn from mid morning through mid
afternoon, with a period of rain showers also expected to affect
kfwa again this afternoon. stronger low level moisture
transport is expected to remain confined along an axis from
north central il into central lower mi today which should keep
most pronounced moisture axis and greatest potential of isolated
thunder just west to northwest of ksbn. it is possible some
thunder mention may be needed at ksbn given weak elevated cape
however. coverage of rain showers should diminish later this
afternoon but a refocusing of low level jet across northern
illinois this evening could allow for some more showers to spill
into northern indiana tonight. otherwise, westward displacement
of stronger low level moisture transport today should allow for
continuation of vfr conditions with primarily mid level cigs
through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 300833
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
433 am edt sun aug 30 2026

.key messages...

- widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning through tomorrow
morning. additional chances monday afternoon into tuesday.

- severe storms are not expected, but there is potential for a swath
of locally heavy rainfall focused across the thumb that may bring
localized flooding concerns this morning through monday morning.

- slight warmer temperatures and increased humidity during the early
to mid week with unsettled weather pattern remaining.

&&

.aviation...

an influx of moisture along the nose of a low level jet located
closer to lake michigan has elicited very healthy coverage of rain
showers across western michigan, which will work into southeast
michigan through the remaining morning hours. as a result, all
locations now have prevailing rain showers for this morning.
intensity of rain showers will be light to moderate given limited
instability in place, however, an isolated rumble of thunder cannot
be ruled out. some brief visibility restrictions to mvfr will be
possible under the stronger rain showers, but overall ceiling heights
are expected to remain vfr. shower and thunderstorm chances continue
through the afternoon and evening, with most favorable location for
any thunderstorms setting up across kmbs to kfnt, aligned with where
an elevated warm front intensifies.

d21/dtw convection...scattered to numerous rain showers likely
through the morning and early afternoon. there will be a low chance
for an isolated thunderstorm but overall confidence in thunderstorms
remains low.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms this morning and afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 am edt sun aug 30 2026

discussion...

brief period of increasing subsidence will mark this early morning
period as high based scattered shower activity from decaying mcs
continues to decrease in coverage. attention quickly turns to an
expanding area of precipitation this morning that will continue
through today. widespread/numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be forced along a warm frontal zone and theta-e
ridge with additional support from the low level jet, though
strongest llj winds hold to the west. the warm front sets up over
lower michigan this morning then lifts northward towards the i-69
corridor later today focusing the higher coverage of showers with
time across northern lower michigan and southeast through the thumb.
the overall airmass will be quite moist as dewpoints climb into the
60s and pwats values increase to 1.75 inches or greater across
southeast michigan while approaching 2 inches over the thumb.
overall severe threat will be very limited with the lack of surface
instability and mean mucape values generally around 500 j/kg or
less, peaking later this afternoon and evening. main concern will be
for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms that could bring
locally heavy rainfall. after a brief period of lower qpf potential
later this evening, an additional uptick in convective potential
occurs late this evening through monday morning as a cold front then
drops into northern lower michigan support a corridor of more focused
forcing. while shear will remain favorable, severe potential again
looks limited given the weaker instability. locally heavy rainfall
will continue to be the main concern.

model consensus puts the axis of heavier precipitation focused along
and north of a line from midland to port huron. average total
rainfall amounts to around an inch are forecast in this axis
starting this morning (12z) to early monday afternoon (18z).
a localized swath of 2 to near 4 inches of total rainfall will be
possible across parts of the thumb, which is highlighted well in the
href 24-hr qpf ensemble localized probability-matched mean. amounts
to half an inch are forecast down to roughly the m-59 corridor and a
quarter inch or less south of m-59 down to the southern border.

southeast michigan will reside on the northern end of a ridge during
the early to mid-week period. slight increase in heat and humidity
will arrive with the persistent west-southwest low to mid level
flow. embedded shortwaves within this flow around the ridge will
continue to offer chances of precipitation into mid-week. given the
pattern and potential for continued chances of rainfall and
increased cloud cover, current nbm forecast temperatures are
probably on the high side mid-week if that pans out. michigan will
remain in a corridor of higher pwats, which keep the potential for
localized heavy rainfall as a concern during this stretch and daily
organized convective chances will depend on the degree of
instability that is able to develop each day.

marine...

we continue the transition out of high pressure today with as a
developing low pressure system over the northern plains begins to
impact the area. the leading warm front has lifted into southern
michigan and will keep overcast skies and rain chances through the
day. in addition, a cold front will be drifting southward toward the
northern great lakes adding to the forcing which will drive
precipitation chances. winds will largely be from the south today
with max gusts around 20 knots. winds turn more southeasterly on
monday while remaining mostly below 20 knots before turning westerly
on tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...aa
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.