Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 061940
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
340 pm edt mon apr 6 2026

.what has changed...
a late season lake-effect snow event is still expected tonight
over the snowbelt of ne ohio and nw pa. snow amounts remain
consistent, with a coating to up to 0.5 inches across much of
the primary and secondary snowbelts, but 1-2 inches are likely
across the highest elevations of northern geauga county, and 2-3
inches are likely in southern and eastern erie county, pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) unseasonably cold through tuesday night, with lake-effect
snow showers tonight through tuesday morning. this will lead to
light accumulations in the snowbelts of ne ohio and nw pa, with
the greatest amounts in the highest elevations inland from the
lakeshore. this could cause localized slippery roads.

2) dry conditions and warming temperatures midweek, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms returning friday.

3) periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the
weekend through early next week as temps warm well above normal.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the weather pattern over the next day and a half will be more
typical of mid winter, characterized by a broad mid/upper trough
across the central and eastern conus downstream of broad western
conus mid/upper ridging. this will bring a late season surge of
arctic air across the great lakes region, and given the broad,
cyclonic nw flow pattern, this spells the typical lake-effect
snow showers.

diurnally driven rain showers are ongoing this afternoon as a
result of the strong april sunshine that has steepened the low-
level lapse rates beneath the cold pool aloft. this activity
will not be very impactful through early evening, with just
occasional light rain mixed with some graupel at times. the
attention this evening will turn to a potent mid-level shortwave
and associated surface low that is expected to cross the central
great lakes before passing over lake ontario late tonight. this
feature can be seen on water vapor loops over northern lower
michigan this afternoon. as the associated surface trough
approaches lake erie this evening, the combination of increasing
synoptic moisture, low-level convergence, and deepening cold air
will allow lake enhanced rain and snow showers to blossom in
coverage. most href members, the rap, and rgem have widespread
rain/snow moving into far ne ohio and nw pa after 23z where the
combination of synoptic moisture and forcing will be best, and
this will transition to pure snow after sunset due to both wet
bulbing and the cold air deepening. this should lead to a quick
coating to few tenths of an inch of snow in the highest terrain
of southern and eastern erie county, pa.

behind the trough overnight, well aligned nw boundary layer flow
and 850 mb temps dropping to -13 to -15 c will set up a multi-
banded lake-effect snow/upslope regime. boosted pops overnight
across both the primary and secondary snowbelts given pattern
recognition and the fact that lake induced instability will be
moderate to strong (several hundred joules) now that lake temps
have warmed to an average of over 7 c. the one thing that will
help to keep accumulations in-check is that the widow of
greatest boundary layer moisture only goes through about 09z
before drier air starts to work in thanks to canadian high
pressure building down from the upper midwest. with this all
being said, most of the primary and secondary snowbelts inland
from the lakeshore should see a coating to as much as 0.5
inches, with up to 2 inches over the chardon/hambden/thompson
areas of northern geauga county. a favorable fetch off lake
huron when combined with the snow from the shortwave this
evening should boost totals in southern and eastern erie county,
pa, so kept some 2-3 inch amounts there.

snow showers will quickly end by 15z tuesday morning as the high
builds overhead, and this should lead to plenty of sunshine for
the afternoon. however, the impressive airmass will keep
temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal. expect highs only to
reach the mid 30s in most areas, with low 40s in far nw ohio.
lows tuesday night will be very cold under strong radiational
cooling, with widespread low to mid 20s. some teens are likely
in sheltered valley areas of eastern ohio and interior nw pa

key message 2...
after the cold snap, a welcomed warming trend will take place
wednesday through thursday as the surface high departs across
new england and mid/upper heights rise ahead of another shortwave
trough tracking from the northern plains into northern ontario.
this shortwave and attendant surface low will slowly push a cold
front into the region from the nw thursday night and friday,
bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. we may
need to watch for pockets of heavy rainfall with repeated rounds
of convection as this front looks to become quasi-stationary
near the region through friday in response to another possible
wave tracking along the boundary.

key message 3...
another canadian high will push the front south to the ohio
river valley saturday allowing for dry and cooler conditions,
but the front will quickly return north as a warm front sunday
in response to a series of shortwaves ejecting out of a
trough/closed low moving into the western conus. this will set
up a very warm and potentially active pattern through early
next week depending on where the front eventually stalls out.
confidence is high that temperatures will warm to much above
normal levels through early next week, but confidence on the
timing and placement of convection is low given the uncertainty
on the placement of the boundary.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
predominately vfr conditions are expected through this period
with the exception of periodic mvfr ceilings associated with
lower lake enhanced clouds downstream of lake erie. at these
terminals, ceilings gradually range from 2-3kft. as a secondary
cold front pushes south across the area this evening, colder
temperatures will result in the potential for lake enhanced
rain/snow showers, primarily impacting keri. there may be other
impacts to kcle and kyng, although confidence is lower there.
visibilities within snow showers may drop to 4sm at times, but
overall impact should remain minimal. by 15z tuesday, high
pressure should limit moisture available for snow showers and
conditions across all terminals should improve to vfr.

west-northwest of 10-15 knots will persist through this
afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 knots. the strongest winds are
expected near the lakeshore and across western terminals. these
winds will quickly weaken on tuesday as high pressure pushes in
and allows winds to gain a more northerly component at 5-10
knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely monday night into tuesday morning in
rain and/or snow showers, particularly across the snowbelt.
non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers thursday night into
friday.

&&

.marine...
as a secondary cold front pushes south across lake erie today,
west-northwest winds will increase to 15-25 knots allowing waves
to build to 4-6 feet. these winds will persist into mid tuesday
morning. a small craft advisory is in effect for the islands
to the east into tuesday morning. on tuesday, high pressure will
become dominant across the region, allowing for northerly winds
to weaken to 55-12 knots, gradually veering throughout the day
to become southeasterly by wednesday morning. on thursday, a
warm front will shift north of the area, shifting winds to
south-southwesterly and once again increasing them to 15-20
knots. will have to monitor conditions thursday for any need for
a small craft, but given off shore flow, it should be really
marginal. the associated cold front will push east on friday,
shifting winds to northwesterly at 5-10 knots which will persist
into saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am edt
tuesday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 061825
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
225 pm edt mon apr 6 2026

.key messages...

- few light showers this afternoon/evening, otherwise dry for
the next several days.

- a widespread hard freeze is expected tonight, followed by
below normal highs on tuesday.

- warmer weather returns later this week, with rain chances
ramping up thursday into friday.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 138 pm edt mon apr 6 2026

isolated (10-20%) rain showers associated with a cold front
will move south across the forecast area this afternoon and
evening. this will usher in even colder temperatures tonight
with the entire forecast area falling into the 20s. if you`ve
started growing sensitive plants, you may want to make sure
they`re protected overnight. otherwise, our area will have a
much needed opportunity to dry out over the next several days as
high pressure builds over the northern plains. in fact,
forecast soundings suggest possibly record low pwats for
tomorrow morning of less than 0.10 inches (according to the
wilmington oh upper air sounding climatology).

after highs max out in the 40s tomorrow, warm air advection
overspreads the region with temperatures climbing up into the
low 70s by thursday afternoon. the suite of model guidance,
including ai models and their ensembles, are in good agreement
of the existence of a cold front draped across the area
sometime friday which will produce additional unsettled weather.
while precip through the weekend will not be extravagant with
generally 1/4 inch or less expected, although probabilistic
guidance does give a ~20% chance of exceeding 1 inch of in sw
michigan and nw indiana, tapering off to about a 10% chance near
fort wayne. temperatures will likely stay mild through saturday
thanks to the precip and cloud cover, before warming back up to
near 80s degrees by sunday and monday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1236 pm edt mon apr 6 2026

lake breeze is pushing inland amid stiff northwest flow.
upstream of this, diurnally enhanced showers are underway
across wi associated with an upper-level trough nosing in. can`t
completely rule out a brief shower at either terminal prior to
sunset but the overall chance is minimal. wind gusts diminish
tonight and wind becomes northerly overnight. ceilings are a
little uncertain beyond 00z with a surge of 925mb moisture
behind the shortwave. guidance is rather split on how this
evolves and so have continued vfr ceilings for the time being.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...norman
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 061905
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
305 pm edt mon apr 6 2026

.key messages...

- stretch of colder conditions will exist through tuesday with
temperatures remaining below normal during this time. milder air
returns for the mid to late week.

- showers producing a mix of rain and graupel/snow pellets continue
this afternoon into the evening. snow begins to mix in and becomes
the predominant precipitation type later this evening into tonight.

- brief higher intensity bursts of snow showers will be possible
tonight, with a dusting to half inch of accumulation on grassy
surfaces in isolated areas. northeastern thumb has the potential to
get clipped by lake effect bands off huron and see an inch or two of
accumulation by sunrise tuesday.

- the next chances for rain arrive thursday and likely persist
through much of friday.

&&

.discussion...

mid-upper troughing continues to govern conditions locally allowing
a couple of sheared shortwaves to track into the region. the second
of these is beginning to arrive over lower mi this afternoon
spurring the development scattered showers. given wet bulb zero
heights only sitting around 2kft and diurnal heating supporting
sharp mid-level lapse rates, graupel is likely (and could be the
predominant p-type) within the more robust convective cells. a few
rumbles of thunder also possible with these cells given the weak
instability and availability of ice within the cloud. greatest
shower coverage arrives this evening as a respectable cold front
sweeps across the state. forecast soundings advertise wet bulb zero
heights further falling aob 1kft as cold advection ramps up which
would allow some snow to mix in, particularly in the thumb where
columns are coolest. a good pop of nw wind is expected to occur
along the cold front with 35-40mph gusts possible.

stronger cold advection follows through tonight keeping winds breezy
gusting 25-30mph as 850mb temps fall to -12 to -14c. resultant wind
chills reach lower teens to single digits f as overnight lows drop
to the lower 20s. magnitude of cold airmass is supportive of
scattered lake effect flurries/light snow showers overnight into
tuesday morning. most areas see little to no accumulation though
isolated areas could pick up a dusting to half inch on
grassy/evaluated surfaces. one exception is the northeastern thumb
who, seeing an early changeover to snow this evening and potential
for lake huron lake effect bands to clip shore, could pick up an
inch or two by sunrise tuesday. thermal troughing holds for the day
tuesday keeping temperatures much below average in the mid to upper
30s for most of the cwa- southern areas especially toward the ohio
border stand the best chance to reach 40.

high pressure shifts to our east tuesday night ushering in milder
southwesterly flow for the mid to late week period as 850mb temps
return to the positive upper single digits c. rain shower chances
return by daytime thursday as a broad northern ontario low drags a
cold front into lower mi. mid-range model solutions continue to
suggest this front slowing, potentially stalling, over southern
lower mi late thursday as parent troughing rapidly lifts into
northern quebec turning the frontal slope parallel to mean flow. a
secondary trailing shortwave arrives over the great lakes thursday
night-friday reinvigorating the remnant baroclinic zone and offering
another period of widespread showers before the front finally clears
southeast friday night. with the recent heavier rain/flooding,
especially over the northern half of the area, this potential for
longer duration rainfall will be something to monitor. further
adjustments/refinements to the exact positioning of the frontal
boundary and axis of heaviest rainfall to come in further forecast
cycles.

&&

.marine...

low pressure carves across lake huron this evening, dragging a cold
front across the region and shifting winds to the northwest. a brief
pop in wind gusts up to 35 knots will be possible late this evening
immediately behind the front. small craft advisories remain in
effect as northwest gradient flow increases wave heights into
tuesday morning. high pressure fills in briefly tuesday ahead of the
next impactful low, which tracks across ontario late in the week.
this system brings a 60-70 knot low level jet into the great lakes
region wednesday night-thursday morning, although forecast soundings
depict a very stable boundary layer that prevents this magnitude of
gusts from reaching the surface over the open waters. nocturnal
timing of the jet should also prevent overachievement of gusts along
the land-lake interface. expectation with this system is thus
sustained southerly flow of 25 to 30 knots, and gusts in the 30 to
35 knot range. this system will also be responsible for numerous
rounds of rain and possible thunderstorms late in the week as it
draws a slow-moving cold front across the region.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1257 pm edt mon apr 6 2026

aviation...

northern great lakes low pressure slides into ontario while pulling
a cold front through lower mi this afternoon. early april sun angle
has already produced a stratocu response in the mvfr range and
scattered showers as boundary layer instability builds in advance of
the front. thermal profiles in model soundings are on the warm side
for snow, however there is a good chance for snow pellets or graupel
in the strongest pockets of convection mainly toward fnt and mbs. a
rumble of thunder is also in reach but with low predictability at
any one of the terminal sites. more common will be wind gusts in the
30-40 mph range in showers having any greater intensity, and
especially along the front as it moves across se mi. wind then
remains elevated post front this evening while ceiling quickly
builds up into low end vfr and then scatters out late tonight. wind
direction shifting toward the north is favorable for the clearing
trend followed by a new round of daytime clouds by late tuesday
morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and
evening. low tonight and tuesday morning.

* moderate for rain/pellet mix this afternoon and evening.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt tuesday for lhz421.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt tuesday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......mv
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.