Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
129
fxus61 kcle 312320
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
720 pm edt sun may 31 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes with this update as tranquil weather
continues through most of this upcoming week.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather with pleasant temperatures much of the week. a
gradual warming trend begins on wednesday.

2) potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms returns as
early as late friday and peaks over the weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure overhead today weakens slightly into monday with
re-enforcing high pressure building into the great lakes and mid
atlantic tuesday and wednesday, before sliding southeast for
thursday and friday. dry/tranquil and pleasant weather continues
through thursday, with temperatures beginning a gradual warming
trend wednesday and thursday as we get into light return flow
on the backside of the surface high and as heights aloft begin
to rise over the eastern us. the weak gradient will likely
allow for lake breezes most afternoons over the next several
days, keeping locations close to the lake a bit cooler.

key message 2...
building warmth and increasing humidity, along with a frontal
boundary sagging into the great lakes, will allow for some
shower and thunderstorm potential to return as early as friday
and into the weekend. friday should mainly be dry, though as a
weak shortwave moves through the northern great lakes and
provides some minimal forcing it`s possible there`s just enough
moisture and instability for a few late day showers and storms.
heading into the weekend, the front is expected to be close by
just to the north on saturday but with rather minimal jet
support, likely allowing for disorganized/scattered activity.
while some model runs and ensembles build high pressure into the
northeast and push the front south for sunday, others move the
next shortwave in from the west quicker. that would keep the
front farther north for the second half of the weekend...
leading to increased uncertainty by sunday. temperatures will
warm to above normal for friday and saturday as dew points also
climb into the 60s. sunday`s forecast will depend on the front`s
placement, with a warm and humid airmass and shower/storm
chances south of the front and milder, drier conditions north.

overall, there are low rain chances on friday but some limited
activity can`t be ruled out late in the day. saturday is the
highest confidence day for at least some scattered/disorganized
shower and thunderstorm potential, with a 40-60% chance in the
forecast across the area. similar chances (40-60%) are currently
in the forecast for sunday, though do note the uncertainty
regarding the placement of the front. the overall risk for
severe weather and flooding next weekend appears low, given
rather modest amounts of forcing and shear. it is worth noting
that with precipitable water values climbing above average and a
more humid airmass that at least some localized downpours and
heavy rain may still become something to monitor.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions persist through the taf period under high
pressure that remains across the great lakes region. light and
variable flow expected through monday afternoon. northerly to
northeasterly winds increase to 5-8 knots with locally higher
winds 8-12 knots expected in a lake breeze at kcle and keri
monday afternoon.

outlook...vfr expected through friday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure will persist over the great lakes and keep quiet
marine conditions around through at least friday of this week.
a northeasterly flow of 5 to 10 knots expected through tonight.
the northeasterly flow will increase slightly to 10 to 15 knots
during the day monday and tuesday, especially over the central
and western basin of lake erie. with that uptick of ne winds,
waves may briefly climb up to 2 to 3 feet with those daily
afternoon lake breezes. a southerly or southwesterly wind
around to 10 to 15 knots may return by the end of the week and
weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...13
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
274
fxus63 kiwx 312333
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
733 pm edt sun may 31 2026

.key messages...

- dry with low humidity and highs 75-80 through wednesday.

- trending warmer and more humid thursday through the weekend with
highs well into the 80s.

- periodic chances (30-50%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms
friday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 152 pm edt sun may 31 2026

stable and dry low levels on the southern fringe of high pressure
will allow seasonable temperatures, low humidity and rain-free
conditions to persist through the middle of the week. a west to east
oriented mid level trough axis drops south through the great lakes
and ohio valley monday into monday night with nothing more than an
increase in mid-high level clouds. ridging through the column then
settles in behind for the middle of the week with plentiful sunshine
and warming temps (high low-mid 80s by thursday).

a transition to flatter zonal flow aloft will bring periodic chances
for scattered showers and storms into the forecast friday afternoon
through next weekend as several subtle convectively augmented
impulses track east along a developing frontal zone. a warmer, more
moist, air mass will also advect in during this time supporting
these periodic 30-50% pops.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 731 pm edt sun may 31 2026

high pressure slides southeastward off the mid atlantic seaboard and
a vort max comes in from the west as a trough in the west pushes it
towards the area and the stalled upper low in the eastern conus
sends a spoke of vorticity that interacts with it. this sends a
theta-e plume of moisture towards the area tonight into monday.

this evening the radar is picking up scattered, what appear to be
showers, the rap point soundings appear to indicate that there`s
plenty of dry air below 700 mb. this could allow virga and spotty
sprinkles, but this is not hazardous enough to include in tafs at
this time.

given the transition from sfc high pressure to incoming theta-e
plume, this would indicate a chance to see increased gusty winds
most likely during the last 3 to 5 hours of the taf period. there is
some uncertainty with that though so will allow the next issuance to
add it in.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
360
fxus63 kdtx 312342
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
742 pm edt sun may 31 2026

.key messages...

- dry weather with plentiful sunshine continues through mid week.

- near normal temperatures early week become warmer and more humid
thursday and friday.

- the next chance of rain develops friday into next weekend.

&&

.aviation...

weak lake breeze from lake erie has washed into the dtw airspace
early this evening - along with some influence from lake st clair at
det. the modest southerly (dtw) or easterly (det) flow will quickly
relax to light and variable around sunset. elsewhere, the surface
layer will decouple quickly early this evening - allowing the
surface winds to nearly vanish. the only clouds are a thicker cirrus
filament along the edge of the high cloud shield lingering over the
southern terminals, which will remain so through most of the night.

main story for monday will be the boost the surface high gets from
the big cold water of the great lakes. a rather aggressive
northeast flow release is expected off of lake huron, starting
midday downstream of saginaw bay and by mid-afternoon farther inland
at fnt and ptk, then eventually det as the release works south into
the st clair basin. gusts will be prominent - approaching 25kts at
mbs and a little tamer farther away from lake huron. the lake erie
influence will not be as pronounced - however, still expecting a
late afternoon release affecting dtw/yip - but not with the vigor
seen farther north. the lake erie boundary may also excite some
high based cumulus for a few hours, but will remain above 5kft.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through monday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 338 pm edt sun may 31 2026

discussion...

except for a fringe of cirrus, another cloudless day is unfolding
across lower mi with low humidity and temperatures right around
normal to finish off the weekend and the month of may. temperatures
rising into the mid 70s, combined with broad and flat surface high
pressure, is promoting a typical lake breeze pattern to keep
readings cooler near the shorelines.

afternoon satellite observations indicate an energetic mid level
short wave still moving down from the james bay region on a
meridional track over the eastern great lakes tonight and early
monday. this system carves some height falls into the eastern flank
of the larger scale blocking ridge while pulling a weak surface
trough/backdoor front through southern ontario. the pressure feature
washes out quickly but is effective at reinforcing the dry air mass
without much change expected to high temperatures during the early
week period.

consensus of 12z deterministic models shows the 500 mb ridge
rebuilding over the western great lakes by wednesday and maintains
good timing consistency from over the last few model cycles. this is
the first stage of omega block unraveling as the upper jet picks up
strength across both the north pacific and north atlantic. there can
often be some predictability issues during the transition, however
the timing and shape of the 500 mb structure look good compared to
ensemble means over the last few forecast cycles. a warming trend is
the associated weather highlight in the great lakes tied to the
increasing height field while humidity remains in check through
thursday.

the current rockies closed low component of the blocking pattern
becomes the focus of rain potential returning by friday. the
circulation is kicked eastward during the larger scale zonal flow
transition while interacting with broad lee side surface troughing
across the plains. increasing pops in blended guidance looks
reasonable across the great lakes as pent up gulf moisture returns
northward into the region ahead of the low pressure system.

marine...

light and variable winds observed this afternoon across the great
lakes as high pressure weakens overhead. a weak backdoor cold front
drops through the area tonight, causing winds to flip to the
northeast as high pressure expands in from ontario. northeast flow
along saginaw bay leads to breezy conditions monday afternoon,
prompting the issuance of a small craft advisory for inner saginaw
bay. elsewhere, gusts are capped below 20 knots. extended stretch of
dry and overall favorable marine weather persists through much of
the work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from noon to 10 pm edt monday for lhz422.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...bt
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.