Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
347 pm edt fri jun 5 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast to note.

&&

.key messages...
1.) periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and
along a cold front this evening through saturday night. some
storms may be severe saturday afternoon and evening.

2.) after a brief period of cooler weather this sunday,
temperatures are expected to rebound this monday through friday,
june 12th.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
aloft, a high pressure ridge exits e`ward tonight through
saturday night and gives way to cyclonic w`erly to nw`erly flow
and embedded shortwave disturbances over our region as a primary
trough axis moves from near western on and the north-central
united states to near new england and the delmarva peninsula by
daybreak sunday. at the surface, ridging exits generally
se`ward before a cold front sweeps se`ward through our region
late saturday afternoon through the predawn hours of sunday
morning. the front will be preceded by a low-level return flow
of warm, humid, and unstable air originating over the gulf.
behind the front, a surface ridge begins to build from northern
on and the upper great lakes through daybreak sunday. periodic
and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening, especially after sunset, through saturday night as weak
to moderate instability, including elevated cape, is released
by the following: low-level convergence/moist ascent along
surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave disturbances and
along the surface cold front; moist isentropic ascent ahead of
the shortwave trough axes and along the upper-reaches of the
cold front. note: a wsw`erly llj should develop over/near lake
erie this evening through about daybreak saturday and enhance
moist isentropic ascent and shower/thunderstorm potential,
respectively, over and near the lake. some thunderstorms may
become severe this saturday afternoon into the evening as the
warm/moist sector boundary layer destabilizes via peeks of
sunshine and daytime heating, and moderate to strong deep-layer
bulk shear resides in our region. damaging straight-line wind
gusts are expected to be the primary severe convective weather
hazard as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer yields
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate dcape saturday
afternoon into early evening. despite weak mid-level lapse
rates, sizable mucape in the hail growth zone and ambient
melting levels near 10kft agl should support a threat for
marginally-severe hail. periods of torrential rainfall amidst
unusually-high pwat`s in the warm/moist sector are expected.
however, the flash flood threat still appears to be minimal
since w`erly to wnw`erly mean mid-level flow should be fairly-
strong and exhibit a large component perpendicular to the front,
which should limit the potential for training convection. as
the front at the surface and aloft exits se`ward, showers and
thunderstorms should exit our region generally from wnw to ese
between about sunset saturday evening and daybreak sunday
morning.

tonight`s lows are expected to reach the 60`s to lower 70`s
around daybreak saturday. highs should reach the mid 70`s to mid
80`s late saturday afternoon. the coolest highs are expected
along and within several miles of ~59f lake erie, from
northeastern cuyahoga county, oh to erie county, pa, due to
lake breeze development during the late morning through early
evening. note: low-level convergence/moist ascent along the lake
breeze front should contribute to shower and thunderstorm
initiation saturday afternoon through early evening. weak and net
low-level caa behind the cold front should contribute to lows
reaching the mid 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak sunday.

key message 2...
a ridge is expected to affect the lake erie region and upper oh
valley on sunday through friday, june 12th. aloft, the mean
ridge axis should drift from near the western great lakes and
lower oh valley toward the eastern seaboard of the united
states. at the surface, the primary high pressure center should
wobble se`ward from northern on and the upper great lakes to
atlantic waters east of bermuda. this projected weather pattern
evolution at the surface and aloft will allow net low-level waa
to impact our cwa. in addition, a low-level moisture tap to the
southern gulf stream and/or gulf should develop this monday
through friday and allow humidity to increase noticeably,
especially on tuesday onward. moderating temperatures should
include late afternoon highs in the mid 70`s to mid 80`s on
sunday followed by late afternoon highs in the mid 80`s to mid
90`s this thursday and friday. note: sufficient daytime heating
of surface air over land surrounding ~59f lake erie and a
favorably-weak synoptic mslp gradient should allow a lake breeze
to develop and affect locations within several miles of the
entire lake during the late morning through early evening hours
of this sunday and monday, respectively. the coolest high
temperatures are expected within the lake breeze.

fair weather is expected on sunday through sunday night due, in
part to stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge. subtle
shortwave troughs should ripple generally eastward through the
ridge aloft this monday through friday. low-level convergence/moist
ascent along attendant surface trough axes may trigger isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon
through early evening, as a moistening boundary layer destabilizes
via daytime heating. latest trends in nwp model guidance do not
depict a strong signal for any storms to become severe. however,
the combination of appreciable boundary layer instability and
moderate deep-layer bulk shear may support a few strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and early evening hours of
wednesday and thursday.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions will persist through 00z with moistening of the
atmosphere and chances for showers and/or thunderstorms
returning tonight through saturday. chances of precipitation
will arrive near tol between 00-03z but not expected to impact
additional terminals for several hours as storm motion is to
the northeast. showers are expected to spread east and be near
cle and eri towards 08z. can not entirely rule out a
thunderstorm tonight but potential is low. chances of showers
will move south with time across the forecast area. more
uncertainty lies with where and when re-development will occur
on saturday afternoon. it looks as thought additional showers
and thunderstorms will fire across the area after 18z and will
need to be monitored for ifr visibilities in heavy rain a gusty
winds. timing will need to be refined as we get a better handle
on timing.

in addition, southwest winds will be breezy today with gusts of
20-25 knots. winds gusts are expected to generally drop off
tonight as a 35 knot low level jet moves overhead. this will be
close to low level wind sheer criteria but generally just under.
winds will increase with height through 2k feet. surface wind
gusts will resume on saturday morning with gusts to 25 knots
possible.

outlook...limited non-vfr in a cluster of weakening showers and
thunderstorms tonight into early saturday. non-vfr possible
again saturday afternoon and evening as thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds on lake erie will increase to 15-25 knots tonight
ahead of a cold front, with the stronger winds focused towards the
east end of the lake on saturday. this will lead to elevated waves
in the open waters of 3-6 feet. the cold front pushes south of lake
erie late saturday afternoon/evening with winds decreasing quickly.
thunderstorms will also be possible tonight and saturday with a few
strong storms possible on the lake saturday afternoon.

high pressure builds in behind the front for sunday and monday with
a light onshore flow sunday and 15 knots or less on monday.
southerly flow resumes on tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...jaszka
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
154 pm edt fri jun 5 2026

.key messages...

- scattered showers and a few storms this afternoon and evening, potentially
becoming more numerous overnight. isolated severe weather is
possible, with greatest chances after 2 am edt saturday.
confidence is low.

- keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on
saturday! increasingly humid with 60-80% chances for showers
and thunderstorms saturday afternoon and evening. there is a
slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) with damaging
winds and large hail as the main threats. confidence is low.

- dry and warm early next week with continued highs in the mid
to upper 80s. first 90+ degree day of the year possible by
late next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 153 pm edt fri jun 5 2026

a decaying mcs will bring increasing chances for rain and a few
storms this afternoon and evening associated with a mid level
trough. highest chances of 60-80% will be across lower michigan.
despite the approaching line of showers and storms on radar this
afternoon, the environment is very lackluster for any severe
weather before 06z tonight outside of an isolated instance or
two for damaging wind. inverted v forecast soundings over the
forecast area depict very meager instability (<500 j/kg) and mid
level lapse rates (<6c/km). spc does have a marginal risk for
severe weather (level 1 of 5) along and north of us 24 today and
tonight, although confidence in severe weather occuring is low.
given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, 0-6km
shear will only be about 20 kts. with weaker shear, the favored
storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. moderate
dcape of around 500 j/kg and steep low level lapse rates of 8-9
c/km will support isolated instances of damaging winds. with
pwats around 1.5 to 2", even if storm clusters are not severe,
they will likely be efficient rainfall producers with rainfall
rates in excess of 1"/hr.

dewpoints will increase into the low to mid 60s tonight in response
to a strong llj ramping up this evening and into saturday. with
better moisture transport and increasing bulk shear up to 35 kts,
after 06z tonight, the environment becomes moderately favorable
for severe weather. low level lapse rates improve as well to
around 7- 8c/km. hi-res model guidance has a large spread of
solutions for what could happen ranging from nothing to a
sustained line of storms across northern indiana slowly moving
southward from 06-12z. i am not fully confident on what the
correct solution will be, but given the decently favorable
environment despite the loss of diurnal heating, i would lean
towards isolated strong to severe storms being possible
overnight within the marginal risk.

keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on saturday!
ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be
possible saturday afternoon and evening during peak heating hours.
our area will be well into the warm sector saturday with breezy
southwesterly winds and dewpoints soaring to around 70 degrees.
increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the low
to mid 80s) to support sbcape of up to 1000-1500 j/kg. how much
instability we get will be highly conditional on what occurs tonight
into early saturday morning. nevertheless, convective initiation
should occur after midday saturday with the best chances for
scattered strong to severe storms between 18z-03z. coverage and
intensity of storms, including severe potential, will be driven by
how much the atmosphere can recover from whatever happens overnight
into saturday morning. a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather is in place across northwest ohio, with a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for the rest of the forecast area. severe potential
is greatest in nw ohio because 1) this area may not be impacted by
overnight convection and 2) this area will have the longest time to
heat up and destabilize saturday as the cold front takes its time
moving in from northwest to southeast. confidence is medium in
severe weather occuring (given morning uncertainty) but the
environment will be more favorable than friday. steep low level
lapse rates of 9c/km and 0-6km shear of 35-40 kts will support
damaging winds and large hail as the main threats with any storms.

it will be dry again as high pressure builds in on sunday and monday
across the great lakes. as the upper level ridge builds across the
central conus, summer-like temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
persist throughout all of next week with the first 90+ degree day
possible for many locations by the end of the week. in addition,
there will be daily periodic chances for rain/storms by mid to late
in the week.


&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1249 pm edt fri jun 5 2026

a broken line of showers has a history of producing lifr
visibility, despite their meager appearance on radar. ksbn will
see a brief break in the rain before more showers arrive from
northeast illinois. beyond 00z, the forecast is uncertain but
trends suggest an east-west oriented area of showers and storms
develop perhaps just south of sbn, but near or just north of
kfwa. this line then drifts sse through daybreak saturday. i`ve
opted to continue a prob30 at ksbn to account for this -tsra,
while opting for a higher confidence tempo at kfwa.

a drying trend is anticipated after 12z, especially at ksbn.
additional -tsra is possible near 18z or beyond at kfwa,
depending on previous evolution of -tsra.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
614 pm edt fri jun 5 2026

.key messages...

- periods of showers with potential for a few embedded thunderstorms
until late tonight.

- additional showers and storms possible saturday with isolated
strong to severe storms possible, capable of producing
marginally damaging wind and large hail.

- heat builds next week with reoccurring periods of thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation...

a cluster of showers will traverse the se mi terminals this evening,
associated with an upper level short wave. limited instability has
largely kept upstream thunderstorm activity to a minimum. while some
isolated thunderstorms are possible in some of the heavier showers,
the chances for more organized thunderstorms to impact the terminals
this evening are too low to include in the tafs. in addition to the
short wave, a surge of low to mid level moisture advection has aided
shower development. the strongest push of low level moisture has
been directed toward the saginaw valley, where mvfr based clouds
have developed. additional moisture advection during the night is
forecast to cause a southward expansion of the low cloud deck
farther south during the night, possibly reaching the detroit
terminals toward daybreak.

d21/dtw convection...a cluster of light to moderate showers will
track across the airaspace this evening. only an isolated
thunderstorm looks possible given weak instability. another upper
level short wave will track across metro detroit on saturday,
coinciding with peak daytime instability. this will warrant a chance
of thunderstorms during the early to mid afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms tonight.

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and saturday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm edt fri jun 5 2026

discussion...

after an 8+ day stretch of rain-free weather, showers are lifting
across southeast michigan. confluent low-level winds have
transported gulf moisture up through the plains and into lower
michigan, while thetae advection has been even more aggressive
within the mid-levels. this has raised pwats from less than 0.50
inches this morning to over an inch, and pwats should exceed 1.50
inches by this evening. expectation for convective evolution is that
showers should largely be void of thunder through the rest of today
given lackluster instability. latest spc mesoanalysis viewer shows
an axis of +500 j/kg sbcape extending across central lower, but the
ongoing convective showers are rooted eastward, along the gradient.
some uncertainty remains as to how quickly this activity moves east
through the rest of the forecast area this evening, before losing a
surface-based mixing connection. should evening convection deepen to
produce thunder, the severe threat would be low. inverted-v
soundings with dcape in excess of 750 j/kg support an isolated gusty
wind threat along the unmodified lead edge, limited by displacement
from the instability reservoir. weak mid-level cooling after dark
should offer a bit of elevated nocturnal instability for a few
rumbles of thunder prior to midnight. rising dewpoints lead to a
warmer night, with lows only cooling into the mid-upper 60s.

showers should generally be dissipating early saturday morning as
the lead shortwave moves east of the area, but the lull gives way to
another opportunity for convection late saturday morning and midday.
coverage of thunder carries a high degree of uncertainty, even as
the track of a secondary mid-level trough digs cleanly through lower
michigan. distinct increase in instability is probable saturday as
dewpoints rise into the upper 60s with positive buoyancy lifting
above 1000 j/kg, paired with ebs of 25-35 knots. ascent will be
boosted by an inbound could front draped across the great lakes.
main convective threats should be water-loaded microbursts/winds and
possibly some stray larger hailstones. convection dissipates quickly
in the wake of the front saturday evening as stabilization settles
in. surface high pressure over the northern great lakes leads to
veering northerly flow and minor surface-layer cooling/drying on
sunday. geopotential heights rise overhead sunday while a cut-off
low lifts northward from the eastern plains, into the upper midwest.
precipitation with this wave should remain just west of the region,
ensuring a dry sunday forecast, locally.

the main two concerns for next week week will be tuesday convection
and then heat the rest of the week. a pacific longwave trough nudges
the orphaned cyclonic wave into lower michigan while anomalous
moisture transport spills in from the southwest. this supports a
high-cape low-shear convective environment. with dewpoints
approaching 70f, strong to severe storms may arise tuesday. by mid-
week, a 590+ dam 500 mb ridge will extend from baja california to
ontario which would allow for highs in the 90s. given persistent
humidity, potential exists for heat indices to approach 100f, which
would raise concern for heat headlines.

marine...

warm southerly winds topping out around 20 knots this afternoon are
advecting moisture, with showers moving through the central great
lakes. a surface low tracking through the central great lakes this
evening will bring a renewed round of numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region, persisting into the night. light,
mostly westerly winds on saturday. a weak cold front will sink
southward late in the day, serving as the focal point for scattered,
potentially marginally severe thunderstorms, with the highest
probability over lake st. clair and lake erie. very light northeast
flow and dry conditions will follow for saturday night and sunday.
warm and humid weather returns early next week, bringing showers and
thunderstorms on tuesday. an upper level ridge will become
reestablished for the mid week period, resulting in mainly light
winds and and hot temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.