Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
027
fxus61 kcle 170834
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
434 am edt tue mar 17 2026

.what has changed...
the lake effect snow has trended slightly lower today due to
fluctuating placement and intensity of snow bands this morning,
but periods of moderate to briefly heavy snow along with wind
gusts over 40 mph will still create periodic whiteout
conditions. rapid changes to road and visibility conditions are
still expected today, and the greatest impacts are still
expected to be this morning across the primary snowbelt east of
cleveland and in nw pa.

&&

.key messages...
1) the strongest winds will gradually subside this morning, but
continued gusts in the 25-30 knot range through the afternoon
will cause periods of blowing snow and rapidly changing
visibilities within any lake-effect snow showers.

2) lake effect snow will continue today before ending tonight.
the most impactful snow will occur across the primary snowbelt
east of cleveland and in nw pa through this morning.

3) unseasonably cold conditions through tonight.

4) limited and low-impact precipitation chances with milder
overall temperatures wednesday through monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1...
the pressure gradient remains tight this morning amidst strong
cold air advection, and this is causing strong, gusty w to wnw
winds to continue. current observations at 07z still have many
wind gusts in the 30-40 knot range across north central and ne
ohio and nw pa, but the winds are beginning to subside in nw
ohio, with most asos and awos sites recording gusts of 20-25
knots out there. the diminishing trend noted in nw ohio will
gradually progress east this morning as the pressure gradient
relaxes in response to the deep low exiting toward the canadian
maritimes. with this in mind, will keep the wind advisory for
the eastern lakeshore counties going through 12z this morning
(lake, northern ashtabula, northern erie) since gusts over 40
knots will continue there at times over the next few hours, but
the diminishing trend will occur there as well after sunrise.

despite the strongest and most impactful winds coming to an end
this morning, wnw winds continuing to gust to 25-30 knots at
times through the afternoon will still create issues within any
snow showers/squalls. the primary snowbelt east of cleveland and
in nw pa will see the most frequent fluctuations in visibility
and whiteout conditions where lake effect snow is expected
through the day, but scattered snow showers outside of the
snowbelt across the rest of northern ohio when combined with the
wind will also create brief reductions in visibility.

key message #2...
an unseasonably deep trough across the eastern conus in the wake
of the strong storm system will maintain broad cyclonic flow and
strong cold air advection across the great lakes today, with a
pool of -18 c 850 mb air advecting across lake erie this
morning. this along with lake temperatures averaging 2 to 3 c
supports moderate lake induced instability through the day and
lake induced equilibrium levels of 10-11 thousand feet. these
are impressive thermodynamics for mid march and certainly
supportive of strong updrafts and organized, heavy snow bands,
especially since bufkit forecast soundings continue to show
limited shear and periods of decent omega within the dgz amidst
a long, westerly fetch. however, this continues to be a very
challenging forecast with a high boom or bust potential due to
some continued negative factors described below.

first, rap bufkit forecast soundings still show quite a bit of
dry air in the lowest levels through the day. that may limit the
duration of heavier, more organized banding to times when a weak
shortwave/surface trough crosses the lake. we are already seeing
the effects of this over the past few hours, with a lull in the
organized snow bands and only light to moderate snow showers at
the moment. second, strong boundary layer flow of 40-50 knots
early this morning will tear apart bands at times and cause them
to be more ragged and farther inland, which will also work to
shorten the duration of the heaviest, most organized banding.
finally, once we get past 15z, the strong mid march sun angle
will cause diurnally driven snow showers to blossom areawide,
which will disrupt the most organized lake effect bands for the
afternoon.

after weighing all of the positive and negative factors, decided
to lower snowfall forecasts slightly while maintaining very
similar impacts and messaging from periods of heavier snow and
blowing snow, so therefore, kept all headlines unchanged. after
the current lull described above, there should be an uptick in
organization in the 12-15z timeframe as a defined surface trough
slowly crosses the lake. briefly improved low-level moisture and
a boost of low-level convergence and resultant omega immediately
ahead of the trough should get another heavier, west to east
band established across eastern cuyahoga, far southern lake,
geauga, southern ashtabula, and northern trumbull counties
either during or just after the morning commute. the other band
over southern erie and crawford counties will reorganize ahead
of the trough too. this period will be the wild card to boom or
bust on the current snowfall forecast. boundary layer winds will
be decreasing and should improve residence time over the water,
so if the band can get cranking and sit fairly stationary in
this area for 3 or 4 hours, then snowfall amounts will be higher
than forecast. if this band struggles to get organized, then
the snowfall will end up quite a bit less than forecasted since
once we get to the afternoon hours, the sun angle will weaken
banding.

outside of the lake effect area, general, diurnally driven snow
showers are expected everywhere this afternoon along with some
snow showers off lake michigan impacting nw ohio and the
central highlands at times all day. this activity could amount
to a quick coating to up to 2 inches of snow. all snow showers,
including the lake snow east of cleveland, will diminish tonight
as high pressure builds in from the ohio valley leading to
backing boundary layer flow and subsidence.

key message #3...
arctic air will lead to temperatures a solid 20 degrees below
normal today and tonight. air temperatures in the teens and low
20s this morning combined with the wind will produce single
digit wind chills, and wind chills will only improve to the
teens this afternoon and tonight. this will lead to exposure
risks for holiday activities and will at least be a shock to the
system after the mild conditions of late.

key message #4...
no changes to the forecast from wednesday onward. a warm front
will lift across the region wednesday ahead of a weak low
lifting through the northern great lakes, but dry air will limit
any precip. better chance for some light, low impact showers
thursday as the cold front associated with the low crosses the
region. afterwards, the southern great lakes will be wedged
between a broad mid/upper ridge over the western conus and
plains and lingering mid/upper trough over the ne conus. this
will support weak disturbances and occasional light rain
showers, especially in ne ohio and nw pa, but the overall theme
will be warming temperatures late this week through the weekend
and low impact precip chances until a stronger cold front
approaches late sunday into monday.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
a mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area this
morning as a surface trough lingers across the region. this
trough is ushering in much colder air, resulting in widespread
lake effect snow showers off of all of the great lakes. these
snow showers will continue to have visibilities reduced to
mvfr/ifr with some heavier bands possibly lowering conditions to
lifr, especially at kcle and keri. ceiling heights should remain
generally between 1-3kft in areas where the lake effect is and
slightly higher in areas not impacted. tried to handle the
heaviest snow potential in tempos and prob30s, but will have to
continue to monitor for any shift in those conditions becoming
prevailing. near the end of this taf period, around 00z
wednesday, high pressure will nudge northeast over the area and
should allow all terminals to improve to vfr conditions.

west to northwest winds of 12-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
remains likely into this afternoon before the gradient decreases
across the area and winds shift to southwesterly and weaken to
5-10 knots.

outlook...lake effect snow showers continue on tuesday with
non-vfr. non-vfr returns late tuesday night into wednesday
night with the next warm front.

&&

.marine...
a strong low pressure system will continue to drift northeast
towards newfoundland and labrador today, keeping a surface trough
lingering over much of the region. this morning, the gradient across
lake erie will remain tight enough for gales to persist until near
day break. after this, the gradient will gradually weaken as a high
pressure system begins to nudge north into the area later today with
west-northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots possible through the evening.
these strong winds will result in waves building to 7 to 10 feet
across much of the nearshore waters. given these prolonged hazardous
marine conditions, after the gale warning expires at 8am, a small
craft advisory will likely be needed through this evening. given the
winds shifting to become more northwesterly this morning, the low
water advisory is also expected to expire at 8am.

as previously mentioned, a high pressure system will nudge north
tonight, allowing for winds to become southwesterly at 10 to 15
knots tonight into early wednesday. winds will briefly increase to
15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours, but again weaken to 5 to
10 knots wednesday night into thursday. the aforementioned high
pressure will continue to influence the area for much of the
remainder of the week, allowing for relatively calm marine
conditions to persist. a low pressure system may move into the
region for this weekend, which could elevate the winds once again to
20 to 30 knots and increase waves above 4 feet. will continue to
monitor this late week system for any additional marine headline
needs.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
ohz011>014-023-089.
wind advisory until 8 am edt this morning for ohz012-089.
winter weather advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
ohz033.
pa...wind advisory until 8 am edt this morning for paz001.
winter weather advisory until 5 am edt wednesday for paz001-
003.
winter storm warning until 5 am edt wednesday for paz002.
marine...gale warning until 8 am edt this morning for lez142>149-
162>169.
low water advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lez142>144-
162>164.

&&

$$

discussion...garuckas
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
727
fxus63 kiwx 171045
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
645 am edt tue mar 17 2026

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers will impact the morning commute. snow
covered roads and areas of reduced visiblilty are expected.

- lake effect snow showers diminish late this afternoon.

- remaining cold through wednesday morning with lows in the
teens.

- clipper systems race through on wednesday and thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 218 am edt tue mar 17 2026

lake effect snow continues early this morning with three dominant
bands, attempting to become multicellular; one near holland mi and
the other slicing through berrien county. a third band, driven by
convergence, extends from wi through to far northern huntington
county. driving through these bands enroute to the office presented
near white-out conditions for brief stretches, and area asos/awos
are recording periods of 1/2 or even 0 mi visibility.

the upper-level low responsible for northwest flow and subsequent
les continues to lift northeast through michigan while the surface
low is now over interior quebec. favorable les parameters, including
almost 9k ft cloud tops, a saturated dgz, and of course a delta-t of
20c, become less favorable this afternoon as high pressure over the
northern plains edges in. this results in decreased inversion heights
and disrupts northwesterly fetch as well. the ongoing winter weather
advisory remains on track to end near 15z. look for an additional 1
to 2 inches, primarily before sunrise.

with the last of the upper-level vorticity maximum rotating through
this afternoon, we could see numerous snow showers develop similar
to monday. confidence is medium at best with forecast soundings
displaying a rather dry airmass.

cold once again tonight with lows wednesday morning near 20.
increasing clouds from a shortwave streaking through the northern
plains and into the midwest keep overnight lows from getting too out
of hand, especially over fresh snowpack. soundings depict a period
of snow moving from west to east early wednesday morning. preceding
dry air and eventually, disjointed forcing vs and elevated dgz point
to a clipper of minimal consequence with now accumulations of less
than 1 inch. afternoon temperatures will warm well into the 30s,
approaching 40.

active northwest flow persists into thursday when another clipper
races through. upper-level heights will have amplified further
resulting in rain. a 500-mb ridge over the four corners continues to
amplify through the week resulting in warming trend locally. the
next system looks to degrade this ridge a bit by sunday, a day that
may feature a sharp north-south temperature gradient. highs in the
50s and even 60s late this week will be welcome relief from the
current return of winter.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 645 am edt tue mar 17 2026

lake effect snow showers continue to gradually wind down this
morning as midlevel trough exits and inversion heights lower.
however, expect snow showers to continue for several more hours
with periodic mvfr conditions. plan to tempo -sn until 16z but
it is possible that snow showers may last a few hours longer.
dry/vfr conditions assured by 21z and will persist into the
early overnight. a clipper system will bring light snow early
wed morning with the best chances for impacts at ksbn roughly
09-15z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this
morning for inz005-006-103-104-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 11 am edt this morning for
miz078-079-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
948
fxus63 kdtx 171001
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
601 am edt tue mar 17 2026

.key messages...

- arctic airmass keeps conditions cold today with wind chills to
around 0 degrees this morning for most the area.

- scattered light lake effect snow showers and flurries continue
today.

- warming trend mid to late week with a couple of chances for light
precipitation.

&&

.aviation...

modest gusts persist today, but continue a declining trend into the
20-25 knot range. drier conditions expected at the terminals through
the morning hours until another round of scattered lake effect snow
showers develop off lake michigan. moisture depths are rather
shallow, but meager instability will support ascent for convective
structure. intersection with the taf sites carries low confidence
until stabilization arrives this evening. another round of light
snow with a clipper system should hold off overnight, keeping
conditions dry until wednesday morning. mvfr visibilities favored
with light snowfall wednesday morning. nocturnal winds decrease
further, backing from west to south.

for dtw...westerly gusts hold below 25 knots for most of the day and
gradually decrease. recovery below crosswind exceedence expected. a
few light lake effect snow showers are possible this afternoon. low
probability for mvfr or ifr visibility reductions. a clipper brings
another round of light mvfr to briefly ifr snowfall wednesday
morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon and
wednesday morning.

* high in precip type as snow today and wednesday.

* low in crosswind exceedence this morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 411 am edt tue mar 17 2026

discussion...

the arctic airmass has settled across southeast michigan. the winds
remain elevated, but have finally come down compared to last evening
as the stronger lower level jet winds will continue to move east
east through the morning. this combo is resulting in a very chilly
start to the morning. wind chills down to around 0 degrees for most
of the area with areas across the thumb reaching towards -10f wind
chills at times. any residual moisture from snow showers last
evening quickly froze on untreated surfaces. drivers should be
cautious of variable driving conditions during the morning commute
with patchy slick spots likely still lingering on roadways this
morning on any untreated surfaces.

trough axis will progress across the central great lakes today.
surface winds holding out of the w-nw with daytime highs in the 20s
will keep the lake effect regime intact through this afternoon. a
few flurries will be possible through the morning in the wake of the
more robust lake effect streamers from earlier this morning and last
evening. models have weak surface instability with steep low level
lapse rates this afternoon. this should bring a slight uptick in
scattered lake effect showers. limited accumulation potential
expected across southeast michigan with this activity. a tenth or
two of snowfall accumulation at most will be possible in isolated
spots. shortwave ridge and rising heights will put an end to larger
lake effect response by this evening.

temperatures will begin to moderate middle to late week as warmer
temperatures associated with the southwest conus mid-upper ridge are
drawn into parts of the western/central great lakes. a couple of
relatively weak systems will ride the northwest flow around this
ridge offering a couple chances at light precipitation. wednesday
will see daytime highs reach into the 30s with thermal profiles cool
enough for snow as the first system moves through bringing weak
isentropic ascent. accumulation potential looks like it should stay
under and inch. temperatures warm into the 40s and 50s for thursday
and friday with the second system bringing light rain chances for
thursday given the warmer temperatures brining predominately rain
with a brief period of time for some snow to mix in across the
north. lower predictability into the weekend in regards to rainfall
and associated temperatures given the model variability at this
time.

marine...

the northwest gales early this morning will come to an end later
this morning as the thermal trough axis continues to exit east and
the pressure gradient weakens. the bitter cold airmass will be
conducive to heavy freezing spray into tuesday before winds diminish
sufficiently and airmass begins to modify.

high pressure to slide through the ohio valley tomorrow, with the
pronounced surface ridging extending north by evening. this is
provide a lull in winds, under 20 knots. however, moderate southwest
winds to return on wednesday as return flow around the high kicks
in, and low pressure tracks through northern ontario wednesday
night.

light winds return thursday-friday as a weak frontal boundary washes
out on thursday. a warm front will then arrive on friday, bringing a
better chance of precipitation.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 11 am edt this morning for lhz361>363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
lhz361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning until 11 am edt this morning for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 11 am edt this morning for lez444.

low water advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...aa
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.