Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 150654
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
154 am est sun nov 15 2026

.what has changed...
extended rain chances across ne oh through tonight/very early
monday morning, but otherwise no major changes needed with this
update.

&&

.key messages...
1) lake effect snow showers are expected to continue through
today before tapering off tonight.

2) high pressure will build in for much of next week with
drier, seasonable weather expected. temperatures will likely
rise above normal by late next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
an upper trough will linger over the eastern great lakes today
before pushing east tonight into early monday. this will result
in continued lake effect showers in ne oh/nw pa with periods of
wet snow mixing in with the rain early this morning. surface
temperatures will remain just above freezing so snow
accumulations are not expected. generally expect a downward
trend in shower coverage as the trough shifts east during the
today with only a slight chance (around 20%) of showers across
portions of ne oh into tonight. any lingering showers will taper
off by early monday morning as 850mb temperatures increase and
moisture decreases.

key message 2...
high pressure will build east across the region monday and
maintain influence over the local area as it slowly shifts east
throughout the workweek. this will result in dry weather through
at least friday. temperatures will be just a couple of degrees
below normal monday with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s
expected, however temperatures will gradually improve throughout
the week as warm air advection develops on the back side of the
high. by thursday and friday, highs will be in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, which is several degrees above normal for this time
of year. showers may return to the area as early as late
saturday as the next cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
mvfr conditions across the taf sites this evening with mainly
mvfr to persist through the taf period, associated with low
ceilings. radar reveals some light returns across the snowbelt
this evening associated with mainly rain, though some snow is
mixing in at times. this activity should not result in any non-
vfr vsbys. conditions may gradually improve to low- end vfr
towards the end of the taf period from west to east.

winds are generally out of the west to northwest this evening,
7 to 12 knots. winds will remain out of the west to northwest
through the taf period, 7 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr will linger across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania through monday in low ceilings.

&&

.marine...
north/northwest winds around 20 knots will continue in the
central basin of lake erie through early this morning before
flow over the lake diminishes to roughly 10 to 15 knots after
sunrise. small craft advisories will remain for the nearshore
waters of the central basin through late morning. from there,
much calmer marine conditions are anticipated as high pressure
builds over the lake. by monday morning, northwest winds will be
10 knots or less with surface winds becoming more southwesterly
by monday evening. winds in the open waters will likely increase
to 10 to 15 knots for a period on tuesday and tuesday night.
south/southwest winds will develop as the high drifts east on
thursday and the lake with deepening warm air advection causing
winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots. the highest winds/waves
will likely remain in the open waters during this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
lez144>148.
small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
lez149.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...kahn
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 150730
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
230 am est sun nov 15 2026

.key messages...

- some low clouds linger today with continued slightly below
normal high temperatures from 45 to 50.

- a moderating temperature trend expecting this week with a
return of above normal temperatures. the warmest days appear
to be thursday through saturday with many locations
experiencing highs in the low to mid 60s.

- mainly dry conditions are expected this week with some rain
chances returning by next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 am est sun nov 15 2026

another upper level vort max continues to drop south across the
great lakes region early this morning. moisture profiles have become
quite shallow over the past 24 hours with successive periods of mid
level dry air advection in the active short wave pattern. mainly dry
conditions are expected today, although cannot rule out some patchy
light drizzle accompanying passage of this vort max through daybreak
given the shallow moisture profiles in place and weak lingering low
level lift. continued northerly low level flow today and maintenance
of thin layer of higher rh beneath weak 5k ft based inversion will
likely keep good deal of low clouds around although pockets of
stronger mid level subsidence will allow for some sun in spots.
an expansive 1030mb anticyclone will continue to build in from
the mid ms river valley today which will weaken the low level
flow this afternoon resulting in poor mixing. poor mixing
combined with more of a neutral thermal advection pattern will
result in similar high temperatures today as observed yesterday
(perhaps just a little warmer).

backing and weakening of the low level flow tonight should
result in better opportunity for scattering low clouds, although
would not be surprised if spots, especially east of i-69 into
nw ohio maintain some low cloud cover as guidance continues to
hint at another weak mid/upper level perturbation backdooring
across the eastern great lakes. min temperatures are of lower
confidence tonight given this cloud cover dependency and just
hedged slightly cooler than model blended guidance.

monday should finally feature more aggressive positive mid
level height tendencies as upper midwest mid level ridge shifts
eastward. an associated weak low level westerly flow regime will
set up, but thermal gradients in this pattern are quite weak
with only modest low level warm advection developing. however,
monday will start a moderating trend that will continue into
the weekend.

guidance has been fairly consistent in a progressive eastern pacific
wave pattern, with the first of these more pronounced waves in
the late wednesday to thursday timeframe. moisture return of any
significance looks hard to come by at this time due to stubborn
se conus low/mid level ridging with better moisture transport
downstream of this short wave likely getting pinched off across
the southern and central plains. some elevated moisture return
is likely into the great lakes region late wednesday into
thursday but with bulk of forcing staying north of local area
this would probably be just a very light rain/sprinkle event if
anything, and confined to nw in/sw lower mi. this short wave
will not have a deep latitudinal connection and mid/upper
ridging should aggressively build back in for friday in advance
a more robust upper level short wave depicted in medium range
guidance. this should result in friday/saturday being the
warmest days of the period as broad warm sector develops from
ohio valley to the southern great lakes. highs these days should
reach low-mid 60s and possibly into upper 60s saturday
depending on timing of increasing cloud cover.

while medium range guidance is in good agreement with this wave
across western conus, a good deal of uncertainty arises for next
weekend regarding potential phasing with southern canadian branch of
westerlies. this will impact how far south better dynamics can reach
and the magnitude of northward extent of better low level moisture
transport. given at least large scale signal consensus in
medium range guidance, low to mid range chance shower pops have
been maintained for next weekend with potentially a cool down
back to near seasonable levels (briefly?) for early next week.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1246 am est sun nov 15 2026

mvfr to vfr conditions persist at the terminals, with lingering
low level clouds around 2500-3000 ft from both lake instability
closer to ksbn and a low pressure trough closer to kfwa. expect
continued fluctuations around the 2500-3500 ft range through the
early afternoon tomorrow, with dry air attempting to work its
way in. most of the guidance clears both sites to persistent vfr
by late tomorrow afternoon/evening. light winds expected.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 150825
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
325 am est sun nov 15 2026

.key messages...

- cloudy skies today will clear tonight.

- dry weather expected area-wide monday through thursday with a
steady warming trend.

&&

.aviation...

cold nw flow and a subsidence inversion will support at high degree
of lake clouds holding through tonight with mvfr ceilings expected
to prevail. inbound high pressure will try to break up high clouds
sunday afternoon, but diurnal heating will again work to maintain
higher degree of coverage throughout much of the afternoon.
improvement to vfr looks like it will arrive around 00z sunday
evening.

for dtw... persistent nw wind will maintain mvfr ceiling with some
variability in bkn to ovc into tonight and through tomorrow.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet through tonight and
tomorrow morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm est sat nov 14 2026

discussion...

broad mid-upper trough centered over the eastern great lakes remains
the primary driver of local sensible weather through tonight. ample
lake moisture flux within northwesterly flow maintains robust
coverage of low cloud this evening through tonight. while embedded
ripples of vorticity rounding the trough could squeeze low level
moisture fields just enough for a couple light showers/drizzle this
evening, vast majority stay dry for the rest of the day. these
localized vort maxes are expected to reinvigorate ongoing lake
effect showers along the southern basin of lake huron late evening-
tonight however. while initially (through this evening) the eastern
thumb would reside along their westernmost fringe, there is a window
overnight into early sunday morning where lower level winds develop
a more northerly component, tied to reorganization of the upper
trough over the st lawrence seaway, allowing activity to push deeper
into the thumb. precip remains all rain for the lakeshore areas
given the relatively mild lake huron. in the event showers shift
further inland tonight, even these areas are favored to stay mostly
or all rain as column saturation is confined sub 6kft well below the
dgz hampering ice nuclei formation.

sunday is the transition day between departing eastern conus
troughing and approaching central conus ridging. lingering lake
effect showers along southern lake huron gradually wind down over
the course of the day as increasing subsidence and weak warm
advection from midwestern surface high pressure work into se mi.
weakening winds slow the pace lingering low level moisture is
scoured out though, resulting in persistent cloudier skies and highs
still capped in the 40s.

first half of the new work week is governed by ridging which is
firmly in place across the great lakes by this point. steady
moderation in temperatures each day can be expected as above normal
highs in the 50s return. influence of high pressure also leads to
mostly sunny skies and modest southwesterly winds setting up a
pleasant stretch of weather. next chances for rain don`t arrive
until late week as a desert southwest shortwave eventually reaches
the northern great lakes. that said, how much if any rain se mi
could see is tied to how far north the wave tracks.

marine...

cool northwesterly flow will persist tonight which maintains the
breezy conditions across lake huron. gusts ranging between 20 to 30
knots will be likely through midnight. lingering rain showers will
also be possible across the southern lake huron basin. high pressure
will then begin spreading across the great lakes tomorrow morning,
which will result in rapidly decreasing wind speeds in the morning
hours. by the late afternoon and evening hours, light winds will
have settled in as high pressure situates over the great lakes.
southwest flow will become established by monday once this high
pressure progresses east. this will bring some localized stronger
winds through the saginaw bay into central lake huron, but overall
dry weather and lighter wind speeds are expected into the midweek
period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...kdk
marine.......am


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