Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
517
fxus61 kcle 110000
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
800 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track currently. there is still uncertainty
on the location of the showers and thunderstorms overnight
tonight and tomorrow. severe weather and heavy rain still remain
a threat through tomorrow evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through wednesday
night. there will potential for heavy rainfall with each round of
precipitation which could lead to localized flash flooding. severe
weather is also possible with each round with the main threat being
damaging winds.

2) brief dry period on thursday through early saturday as high
pressure builds into the region.

3)unsettled weather returns late saturday through the remainder of
the weekend as low pressure moves through the great lakes
region.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
over the next few days, a series of shortwaves are expected to move
through the region bringing the chance for heavy rain and severe
weather. the shortwave that brought the severe weather to northern
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania has moved off to the east and
there will be a brief period of dry weather until after midnight
tonight. there is low probability of showers and thunderstorms
developing across the southern tier of counties in the cwa, but
confidence is low due to the thunderstorms this morning across
central ohio working over the atmosphere. another shortwave will
enter the region late tonight and move through by tomorrow morning.
current expectation is that the showers and thunderstorms will be in
the western and southern portion of the cwa. there will be potential
for heavy rain to bring localized flash flooding to the areas that
get precipitation, but the limiting factor is that that area has not
received much precipitation over the past couple of days. will need
to monitor the development of the precipitation and adjust as
needed. additionally, there will be a threat of damaging winds with
these storms as they moved through. instability will be lacking
given the storms will be moving through overnight, but there will be
around 40 knots of bulk shear across the region that could support
strong to severe winds. as the shortwave moves out of the area to
the east, precipitation should end by mid morning and dry weather
is expected through midday.

another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening as another stronger shortwave
moves into the region from the northwest. current model guidance
suggests an mcs will be moving through northern illinois through
indiana and into central ohio. there will be ample instability
ahead of this feature along with decent lapse rates and bulk shear
that suggests that it will continue into ohio. the main question
with this would be where it will set up and if it reaches further
north than a line from bowling green down through canton, oh.
regardless, strong to damaging wind gusts will be plausible along
this feature from the afternoon into the early evening as it exits
to the southeast. heavy rain and flooding could be a threat as well
given the previous days precipitation, though confidence is low in
flooding occurring given the reasons stated for the previous night.
severe weather threat should end by late tuesday evening and
primarily dry weather is expected overnight.

wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, another shortwave
and surface low will move through the region with another round of
showers and thunderstorms. there`s still some uncertainty on how
this system will play out, but with the current run of models, it
does not appear to be as impactful as far as severe weather goes.
generally, instability will be lower across the region, but with
decent shear could support some stronger wind gusts. precipitation
will end late wednesday night as the surface low moves off to the
southeast and high pressure builds in.

key message 2...
high pressure will begin to build into the region from the northwest
thursday afternoon. there is a low probability for showers across
the southern portion of the cwa into central ohio on thursday
evening and how far north these get will be dependent on how far
south the high has built in at that time. generally, the majority of
the area will be dry with everyone being dry through saturday as the
high builds overhead and moves eastward.

key message 3...
unsettled weather returns to the region late saturday evening
through the remainder of the weekend. the upper level ridge will
breakdown and northwesterly zonal flow is likely across the region
and a few shortwaves are expected to move through the weekend. given
the event is several days away details are still uncertain on if
there will be a severe or flooding threat.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the taf period. the first round will move into the
area this evening into tonight with additional rainfall likely
into tuesday morning. while confidence in all terminals getting
showers/storms at some point late tonight into tuesday morning
is high, there is some uncertainty in the
placement/coverage/exact timing, especially as storms get as
far east as kcle/kcak where there is less instability. some
showers/storms may be around tuesday morning into the afternoon,
but the next chance of widespread showers and storms will
arrive with yet another complex of thunderstorms tuesday
afternoon into the evening. amendments will likely be needed
throughout the taf period as rounds of storms develop and
confidence increases.

any showers/storms could produce non-vfr conditions in lower
ceilings and reduced visibilities. generally expect vfr outside
of showers/storms, although mvfr conditions in lower ceilings
and patchy mist/fog are likely tuesday morning and possibly
into tuesday afternoon, especially across ne oh/nw pa. stronger
storms could produce erratic, strong wind gusts, but otherwise
winds will largely be out of the south/southwest at 10 knots or
less.

outlook...periods of non-vfr conditions are expected in multiple
rounds of convective activity through thursday. low ceilings
possible outside of storms at times as well.

&&

.marine...
west southwesterly winds 10kts will persist through midweek that
will become variable as low pressure passes west to east across
lake erie. wave heights decrease tonight and should be 2ft or
less through wednesday night before winds become northwesterly
for the end of the week in the wake of a cold front. wave
heights will then increase to 1-3ft during this time.

expect the potential for periodic showers and storms, with
breaks, through at least midweek.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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415
fxus63 kiwx 110031
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
831 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

.key messages...

- several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
into tuesday. damaging winds and large hail are the main
concerns, but an isolated tornado or 2 is possible.

- flooding concerns may increase depending on rainfall amounts
across the area with each round of storms.

- seasonable temperatures are expected to persist.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 243 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

difficult forecast continues in regards to convection coverage
and timing over the next couple of days. will focus on the next
24 hours or so as guidance seems to be flummoxed with this ring
of fire pattern that is currently sitting over our forecast
area. a stationary boundary continues to sit form west to east
over central ia, northern il, and into northern in/southern mi.
convection has been firing along this boundary over the last day
or so and looks to continue to do so. with pretty much a lack
of any agreement in the different cams models uncertainty
remains pretty high on the exact timing and coverage of any
developing convection. currently a couple of thunderstorms have
continued to form over northern il and a couple of cells have
also popped up just to the southeast of our cwa. watching for
possible backbuilding northwest from the cells to our southeast
and also further storm development eastward from the storms
over northern il. a very moist airmass is in place with surface
dew points in the mid to upper 70s, pwats also remain elevated
around 1.75". instability is also abundant with sbcape values of
5000 to 6000 j/kg present this afternoon into the evening.
effective bulk shear values around 40 kts will also be
available. the stationary boundary will most likely be the focal
point for initial storm development but with the amount of
instability present and this is what makes this forecast so
difficult is that any outflow boundary or weak disturbance is
enough to initiate further storm development out away from the
boundary. pinning down where storms will and when will
ultimately develop continues to be the main quandry. however,
any thunderstorms that develop will have all threats available
especially wind, hail, and heavy rainfall but with sr helicity
values around 100 m2/s2 and the close proximity of the boundary
will also allow for tornado spin ups. spc still has our area
under a slight risk for severe weather tonight.

overnight tonight there will continue to be periods of
thunderstorms pushing through the area in a more scattered
nature but a few lingering stronger cells that develop this
evening may continue to impact the area into the overnight
period and even continue into the morning period on tuesday.
some indications do having a brisk southward push of the
boundary by tuesday afternoon and this will increase the forcing
available and would help to move the activity into central
indiana, but again with models struggling in the near term
really do not have high confidence on any solution. spc
currently has the southwest half of our cwa in an enhanced risk
of severe storms tomorrow. this does make sense with the better
forcing and some models hint at a linear convective band pushing
from the northwest parts of the cwa southward into the southern
half of the cwa. again, all threats look to be possible but the
main threats will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall on
tuesday.

with the southward shift to the boundary the spc is calling for
a marginal severe risk for our southwestern portions of the cwa
on wednesday. with the still quasi zonal flow remaining in place
on the northern side of ridging over the southeast conus
temperatures look to remain seasonable through the weekend.
still taking the longer term with a grain of salt as the near
term evolution will lead to the longer term outcome.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 818 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions expected at the terminals
outside of any heavier shower/t-storm activity where ifr
conditions are most likely. through about 4-5z is when we have
the best shot at seeing thunderstorm activity, though it appears
most of the development as of this writin gis south of ksbn.
stil have potential through the evening so left tempo for now.
additional activity is possible late tonight into the morning,
but i suspect there will be a break where more mvfr ceilings
take hold, including some br in areas where we see lighter
winds/recent rains from storms.

tomorrow afternoon/evening we have the potential for an mcs
moving through, which could pack a punch in terms of damaging
winds. for now have between 18-22z at ksbn/19-23z at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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011
fxus63 kdtx 102332
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
732 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

.key messages...

- a chance of thunderstorms will exist this evening into tuesday and
again on wednesday, with greater potential near the ohio border.
isolated storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

- dry weather is expected to end the workweek.

- renewed chance of storms and heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr skies in place this evening with pockets of sub 5kft ceilings
around se mi. stalled frontal boundary remains between detroit of
the state border where scattered thunderstorm development is
expected through late evening. given the frontal orientation,
chances that a storm fires north enough to clip yip/dtw is low
enough to allow the removal of the prob30 thunder mention. vfr
conditions hold in place for tuesday with another complex pf
thunderstorms forecast to drop out of the upper midwest into the
southern great lakes late afternoon-evening. high-res models still
vary on the exact southward drift of this line so have introduced
prob30 groups to all terminals though the detroit terminals stand
the best potential at seeing showers/storms.

d21/dtw convection... scattered thunderstorms are possible near the
state border this evening though chances are low for storms north
enough to reach dtw. another window for convection comes late
tuesday afternoon-evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this evening, low to moderate late tuesday
afternoon.

* moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less through tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 257 pm edt mon aug 10 2026

discussion...

subsidence behind the shortwave this morning dried out the mid
levels and the cap has held strong thus far. acars data out of dtw
shows waning cin however, now around 25 j/kg. although the
low level wind fields are weak, any localized convergence boundaries
(lake breeze) could serve as a focal point to support isolated
thunderstorms. banking on dry mid levels and lag of well defined
trigger to keep coverage limited, as hi res solutions are also
muted. of course, an outflow boundary(s) could trigger
renewed activity. in any event, it appears there is a better chance
tonight toward the southern michigan border.

fast northwest upper level flow over the great lakes region through
thursday, with embedded impulses/upper level pv filaments tracking
out of the northern plains potentially triggering convection. the
main moisture/instability axis is located over the northern ohio,
which favors the bulk of the storms in that area. however, if upper
level waves are sufficiently strong, the southwest low level
jet will be able to displace activity farther north into southern
lower michigan. there are a few models suggesting the i-94 corridor
to the southern michigan border will see some shower/thunderstorm
activity tonight as k indices peak out around 40 c as 850
mb winds increase aoa 30 knots, but remain mostly westerly. the
subtle direction shift from due west and exact location of the jet
core will make all the difference on location of activity.
otherwise, with at least moderate instability/capes (mlcapes
2000 j/kg) to tap into along with decent mid level lapse rates,
a marginal risk of severe seems reasonable.

an even stronger upper level wave is progged to come out of the
midwest on tuesday, supporting higher pops and farther northward
placement by tuesday afternoon. still, if the system goes upscale
faster around chicago, another dive to the southeast remains
a good possibility, focusing the chances for severe storms and heavy
rain south of border. thus, the ohio valley has been put into
enhanced risk in the day 2 spc outlook.

gradually building 500 mb heights to close our the workweek as
an upper level ridge axis arrives friday night (aoa 588 dam per
euro ensembles). there ridge is still not strong enough to cap
activity, as another strong shortwave and surface reflection
are progged to move into the western great lakes by saturday. a risk
of strong storms and heavy rainfall exists over the weekend. timing,
duration, and axis of heavy rainfall remain, however, as ukmet,
canadian, and euro models depict significant differences.

marine...

a stalled front near the southern michigan border will continue to
be a focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the next couple
days. this will mostly affect lake erie and lake st clair but there
is a chance later this afternoon that storms could affect areas
farther north into southern lake huron as well. outside of any
convection, high pressure to the north of the front will provide
generally light and variable winds through mid week at 10 knots or
less. later in the week, a weakly organized area of low pressure
becomes develops across the northeast, followed by high pressure of
30.1 inches gradually dropping southeast across the central and
eastern great lakes. this will favor an uptick in northwest winds
thursday and friday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...sf
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.