Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
064
fxus61 kcle 051746
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1246 pm est fri dec 5 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will dominate over the region today. a clipper
system and cold front will move through the area on sunday.
high pressure will build in late sunday night into monday.

&&

.near term /through saturday/...
the main message for this forecast update will be quiet weather
today with high pressure around. another quick moving clipper
system will move through this weekend with a round of light
snow and another push of colder air.

an arctic high pressure system is over the region this morning
with most locations away from the lakeshore in the single
digits. interesting note to share looking at the nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery this morning, it appears that
some ice has formed on lake erie near toledo in the maumee bay
and sandusky bay. the center of the high pressure will move
towards new england today. there will be a return of a light
southerly flow. there will be a mixture of sun and clouds today
with temperatures struggling to reach freezing, in the upper 20s
to lower 30s.

the overall weather pattern will continue to be a large and
broad upper level trough over the great lakes region and much of
the eastern conus heading into this weekend. it will not be as
cold tonight with overnight temperatures in the teens to lower
20s. on saturday, a cold front will move through the upper great
lakes region trailing down into the eastern great lakes. ahead
of this front, there will be a slight increase in southwesterly
flow on saturday. some light precip in the form of light snow
will develop along and ahead of that trailing cold front across
the eastern great lakes on saturday. the best chance for some
light snow on saturday will be north and east of cleveland into
the primary snowbelt and into nwpa. any snowfall will be light
from a dusting to maybe 1 inch. temperatures will moderate on
saturday into the lower and middle 30s.

&&

.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
the next weather system to impact our region will arrive on
sunday. a fast moving clipper system and cold front will dive
through the midwest saturday night and track into the upper ohio
valley on sunday. a round of light snow will be expect for all
of northern ohio and northwest pennyslvania with 1 to 2 inches
of snowfall possible sunday. a push of colder air will arrive
behind this clipper system sunday evening and overnight. there
could be a brief period sunday evening and night of a little
lake enhancement or lake effect snow for the snowbelt with an
additional 1 to 2 inches possible. high temperatures on sunday
will be in the lower to middle 30s with temps slowly falling
later in the day. another cold high pressure system will build
into the region late sunday night through monday night. high
temperatures on monday will be in the middle to upper 20s.
overnight lows will be in the teens and single digits once
again.

&&

.long term /tuesday through friday/...
a colder than average and active weather pattern will continue
through next week. temperatures may rebound slightly tuesday and
wednesday in the 30s to around 40 degrees. a stronger shortwave
trough will dive through the northern u.s. and upper midwest
tuesday night. this clipper system looks to be stronger as it
moves across the great lakes region on wednesday. higher pops
will return areawide for light to moderate precip in the form or
light snow to a rain/snow mix and then back to snow during the
middle of next week. too early to mention potential amounts at
this time but it looks very active and wintry for the middle and
end of next week.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
a patch of mvfr stratus lingers from mfd/cak to cle until around
22z or so before dissolving out. vfr ceilings in cirrus ahead of
a low pressure system over the upper mississippi valley. clouds
increase and lower through the period, back to mvfr/ifr late in
the taf with the arrival of a cold front and isolated to
scattered snow showers. no mention for the snow showers as the
best chances will lie just beyond the taf period for now, and
will likely be introduced for the upcoming 00z set of tafs.
winds generally southwest 10-15kts through the period with
possible gusts to 20kts at cle/fdy.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered light snow showers on
saturday afternoon. non-vfr more likely in widespread light
snow on sunday. non-vfr possible again in snow showers on
tuesday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds will gradually increase through today, reaching near
20 knots by late tonight into saturday morning, though given the
marginal winds and offshore flow, have opted against a small craft
advisory at this time. the small craft potential becomes more likely
saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front shifts winds towards
the west, 20 to 22 knots. a brief lull in winds is expected for the
first half of sunday, with small craft conditions potentially
returning late sunday into monday morning as a secondary cold front
or trough ushers in northwest to north flow of around 20 knots. a
stronger system is expected to impact the region by tuesday into
wednesday with southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots. there is also a low
likelihood for winds to reach near-gale at times with this system.

outside of marine headlines, the latest nighttime microphysics
satellite product suggests that some initial thin ice appears to be
forming along the western basin of lake erie near toledo, as well as
sandusky bay with the cold air mass overhead.

&&

.climate...
near-record cold low temperatures are expected in portions of our
region this morning, especially farther inland from lake erie.
here are the record cold low temperatures for december 5th:

toledo: -2f (1976)
mansfield: 1f (1957)
cleveland: 2f (1871)
akron: 7f (1991)
youngstown: 9f (1991)
erie, pa: -2f (1886)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...77
near term...77
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...26
marine...kahn
climate...

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
706
fxus63 kiwx 051759
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1259 pm est fri dec 5 2025

.key messages...

- patchy freezing fog possible early today. light snow and
patchy freezing drizzle is possible tonight into saturday
morning. little to no accumulation is expected.

- continued cold through the weekend, then even colder monday
with highs around 20. winds chill dropping to -10 at times.

- light snow saturday night into sunday, snow amounts 1 to 3
inches. impacts appear that they will be relatively limited.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 400 am est fri dec 5 2025

clear skies in an arctic airmass, light winds and snow cover
were allowing extremely cold temperatures to prevail early this
morning. as of 3 am edt, ft wayne and south bend were just a
few degrees from their record lows for the date near zero.
inversion heights were too low and the airmass too dry to
support lake effect snow.

temperatures should moderate some into the weekend as the
extremely cold airmass modifies and moves east. an upper level
system will approach and bring another round of light snow. the
overall dynamics with this system are weak, saturation is
partial and shallow and the fast movement will limit snowfall
time. the latest gfs snow amount analysis favors around 1"
through sunday (>70% chance).

just starting day 9 of the anomalously very cold pattern where at
fwa the temperature over the past 8 days has averaged 12.5 degrees
below normal. the temperature was already near zero at midnight and
just a few degrees from the 130 year old record of -2. this
temperature ties for the coldest this early in the winter and is a
reflection of the cold pattern. the latest gfs and ensembles
continue to support a cold pattern next week, although a brief
moderation saturday should allow temps to reach close to freezing
before the next arctic intrusion arrives.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1247 pm est fri dec 5 2025

main challenge focuses on a weak system passing through tonight
which could bring a period of mvfr cigs and maybe some light
snow or even freezing drizzle. upstream obs in southern mn lean
mainly towards -sn, but there are some pockets of up or even
"rain" that suggests maybe some mix could occur. while lowering
could be a bit premature, models seems to lean towards
decreasing precip trends as it reaches the area tonight. opted
to drop ksbn to a prob30 for the fzdz and sn for now. if
anything occurs it should be fairly brief, but could cause a few
minor issues at ksbn for runways. kfwa should remain south of
the better moisture and lift.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 pm est saturday for lmz043.
small craft advisory until 1 am est saturday for lmz046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
506
fxus63 kdtx 051801
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
101 pm est fri dec 5 2025

.key messages...

- frigid wind chills tonight falling in the negative single
digits. low teens wind chills friday afternoon.

- below normal temperatures persist this weekend and into next week.

- the next chances for light snow will be friday night and sunday.
sunday holds a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.aviation...

ceilings in the 4-5kft range are encroaching on southeast michigan
this afternoon with expectation for similar ceilings to reach the
southern metro terminals later this afternoon and tonight.
conditions should remain vfr through the remainder today with trends
towards mvfr arriving tonight ahead of a cold front. scattered gusts
towards 20 knots will remain possible this afternoon with a
sustained wind of around 10 knots holding through tonight. a few
flurries and possibly some mixed wintry precipitation will be
possible mainly across fnt and mbs tonight and tomorrow morning.
precipitation expected to be very light and will maintain tempo
groups for snow showers around the more likely time to see this
precipitation. winds veer more westerly to around 10 knots towards
the early afternoon tomorrow.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. high
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 351 am est fri dec 5 2025

discussion...

the 00z dtx raob recorded a pw value of .10", a daily record, which
has maintained virtually clear skies overnight under calm to very
light winds. this idealistic setup for efficient radiational cooling
under snow covered grounds have lead to an anomalously cold start to
the morning with temperatures ranging in the single digits across se
mi. very modest warm air advection this afternoon under southerly
flow will have temperatures only warming up into the mid 20s. winds
gusting around 15 mph will maintain wind chills in the teens through
the daylight hours. the advent of upper-level clouds will hold
overnight temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s overnight.

a weak prefrontal trough and passage of a cold front does bring the
chance for some wintry precipitation overnight through saturday
morning, but the weaker forcing within the dry environment precludes
any meaningful accumulation. a dusting of snow accumulation will be
possible across se mi, most favorable over the northern third of the
cwa (north of m59) where slightly better moisture resides. given
moisture quality issues, the shallow moisture depths will likely
reside just shy of the dgz, nearing - 10c. while ice nucleation is
still likely with these cooler temperatures, there will be low chance
for some periodic freezing drizzle. forcing along the cold front,
projected to move through in the mid morning hours into the early
afternoon, can briefly elevate moisture heights back into the dgz and
will be capable of producing a quick dusting of snow.

dry air filters in the wake of the front as the brunt of the polar
airmass holds north of the state, allowing temperatures to rise into
the low 30s for a high saturday. attention will then turn to the
next potential accumulating snow event which will derive from a
clipper system which is projected to arrive across the plains into
the midwest late saturday night before spreading across the great
lakes region by sunday morning. system relative isentropic ascent
will be maximized through the mid-levels between 700 to 500 mb which
will allow for light snow development to overspread across the ohio
valley into michigan. a dusting, up to two inches of new
accumulation will be possible pending how well the system sustains
intensity as it travels into the region.

one possible scenario leading to lesser snow amounts will be the
speed at which an arctic high pressure drops down from the plains
which will have the ability to hold the better moisture south of the
state line as dry air filters in. the latest eps solution favors this
scenario, bringing probabilities to see an inch of snowfall to 15%
or less. nbm probabilities which encapsulates a larger set of
ensembles holds chances around 30%, a decreasing trend from 12 hours
ago. outside of the northern thumb which will hold onto lake effect
snow chances in the wake of the low pressure, the arctic high will
set up over the great lakes bringing dry conditions late sunday into
monday. this also brings well below normal temperatures to start the
next week with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits to
lower teens.

marine...

pressure gradient is beginning to tighten early this morning as the
next low pressure system starts moving into ontario with a cold
front draped through the midwest. the cold front will not sweep
through until early saturday which will lead to another round of
increased southwesterly winds early this morning through early
saturday. another round of small craft advisories for saginaw bay
have been issued as southwesterly winds again increase to around 30
knots. could see a few gusts to 35 knot gales over central lake
huron friday, but should be isolated enough to avoid mentioning
gales in the forecast at this point. guidance did pretty well with
the winds the last couple days with both southwest and northwest
flow, which lends to increased confidence with this next event.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est saturday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...am
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.