Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
467
fxus61 kcle 041152
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
752 am edt sat jul 4 2026

.what has changed...
a heat advisory has been issued for all of northern ohio through
saturday evening.

&&

.key messages...
1) heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot sunday into next week.


2) scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms expected
this weekend through early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the "heat dome" or upper level ridge of high pressure that has
brought so much heat and humidity this past week is almost done
impacting our weather across the region. we will still have some
lingering heat and humidity to contend with today with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. our heat index values will be around
100 degrees, especially across northern ohio. we have extended
heat headlines with a heat advisory for today into this
evening for all of northern ohio. high temperatures will be
closer to seasonable warm levels for early july starting sunday
through early next week in the lower to middle 80s. high
temperatures may creep back up into the middle to upper 80s
later next week. overnight low temperatures will be slightly
more comfortable next week in the lower to middle 60s away from
the immediate lakeshore.

key message 2...
the active storm track has shifted southward back into the
lower great lakes and upper ohio valley region thanks to the
"heat dome" sliding away from our area. this means that we will
see several days of unsettled and stormy weather this weekend
into early next week. there is a weak mid level disturbance
riding over the top of the ridge into northwest ohio this
morning with some scattered convection. the expectation is for
this area of general convection to move eastward through the
morning hours and weaken. it will leave out some outflow
boundaries which new convection will develop around this
afternoon and evening. given the deep layer shear and some
healthy downward cape values, there is a marginal risk for a few
strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts later today.

a weak mid level short wave trough will approach the area from
the west sunday and monday. this trough will keep a higher chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
monday. given the very moist airmass in place with pwats of 1.5
to 2 inches any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall. there is a marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall both today and sunday.

high pressure will build into the ohio valley and lower great
lakes region tuesday and wednesday with lower rain chances. a
broad upper level trough pattern may develop towards the end of
next week over the great lakes region with a weak cold front
moving through late thursday. some higher pops will return back
in the forecast by then.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
the main aviation concern remains potential for convection.
overnight convection has largely dissipated, leaving a clean
slate to start the day. there is increasing confidence in
scattered to numerous thunderstorms firing from interior eastern
oh into interior northwestern pa after 19 or 20z this
afternoon, with impacts most likely at cak and yng (included
tempo groups for tsra) and possible at mfd (prob30) before
storms drift east out of the area this evening. more isolated
activity is possible farther west this afternoon and evening,
but confidence is lower so maintained a prob30 group for tol and
fdy. potential for ts impacts to cle and eri is non-zero this
afternoon but is below 30%, precluding a taf mention at this
time. did include vcsh at cle to hedge a bit, as it`s possible
any afternoon thunderstorm development isn`t too far south/east
of the field. additional showers and perhaps some thunder will
try spreading in from the west overnight...for now, have a
rather benign -shra mention at tol, fdy, mfd and cle late
tonight into early sunday. some non-vfr mist may develop late
tonight, but confidence in a period of clearer/calmer conditions
is currently too low to include in tafs outside of yng and cak.

winds will start south-southwest today, but will shift more
westerly through the afternoon and even gain a northerly
component closer to lake erie. winds will increase to 6-12kt
during the day. some stronger thunderstorms can produce brief
and sporadic wind gusts over 40kt this afternoon and evening.

outlook...weak low pressure and a cold front move across the
region sunday and monday, bringing occasional showers and
thunderstorms. non-vfr ceilings and visibility also possible
sunday night into monday.

&&

.marine...
west-southwest winds of 5-10kt this morning shift a bit more
west-northwest this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front
crosses the lake. winds gradually turn east-northeast tonight
into sunday, and increase to around 15kt sunday afternoon and
evening as weak low pressure approaches from the west. winds
then persist out of the northeast early this week as low
pressure slowly tracks through the upper ohio valley. high
pressure builds in towards midweek. the current forecast keeps
winds in the 10-15kt range and waves in the 1-3 foot range
sunday night through monday night. some guidance suggests a
period of winds to around 20kt is possible sunday night into
monday as low pressure makes its closest pass. if these trends
continue we will need to nudge the wind and wave forecast up,
and may get close to needing small craft/beach hazards headlines
between the islands and willowick for a period of time. any
thunderstorms over the lake over the next few days can bring
briefly higher winds and waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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981
fxus63 kiwx 041042
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am edt sat jul 4 2026

.key messages...

- heat advisory remains in effect through early this evening for
much of northeast indiana and northwest ohio. heat indices
are expected top out from the upper 90s to around 100 today.

- showers and storms with a threat of localized minor flooding
will come to an end early this morning. additional
thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west this
afternoon into this evening. there is a threat of isolated
severe storms from mid afternoon through this evening across
northern indiana and northwest ohio, with the greatest threat
generally south of us route 30 late afternoon and evening.
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible again.

- scattered thunderstorm potential continues into sunday, a few
of these may produce gusty winds but severe storms are not
expected at this time. a trend to drier conditions is then
expected for early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 345 am edt sat jul 4 2026

the main forecast concerns will be on convective potential through
sunday and also lingering heat issues today.

a convective complex continues to track across northern indiana
and northwest ohio this morning. the overall trend has been a
weakening one as some weak mixed layer cin appears to be
developing. these storms have latched onto a fairly strong
gradient of mlcape across northern indiana, with the magnitude
of this instability axis gradually waning through time. storms
in this complex have exhibited both forward and upwind
propagation due to outflow helping to generate new cells into
the better mlcape axis. this dual propagation mode has been
efficient in training of storms with some localized very heavy
rainfall overnight across portions of southwest lower michigan
and into portions of marshall county, kosciusko county, and
southwest elkhart county in northern indiana. some localized
ponding issues could continue downstream with this decaying
complex over the next few hours along with a few instances of
40+ mph gusts and pea sized hail across southeast portions of
the area. trailing area of showers with a few embedded storms across
east central illinois may drift northeast into areas that
experienced the heavy rainfall overnight across northern
indiana, and this may necessitate some additional hydro
headlines this morning across these areas.

this morning`s activity should suppress composite outflow
boundary with some uncertainty this afternoon in terms of exact
positioning/movement of main outflow boundary. as was the case
yesterday will also need to monitor speed/strength of a likely
additional convectively enhanced short wave kicking out of
remnants of larger convective complex across ia/northern mo. the
approach of this short wave could allow the composite outflow
boundary to start to retreat northward a bit this afternoon.
cams offer a wide range of solutions again, but overall
consensus seems to be for a slightly suppressed mlcape gradient
in comparison to yesterday and of a bit less magnitude. shear
profiles should also be marginal again, although will need to
watch if any pockets of stronger shear emerge across central il
this afternoon from aforementioned upstream convection that
could spill into western in toward evening. swody1 keeps
northern indiana/northwest ohio in a wind day 1 marginal risk
for severe storms, with perhaps greatest isolated risk south of
us 30 which might represent best instability and potential
interaction of incoming smaller scale wave with some remnant
outflow boundary influence. localized damaging wind gusts appear
to be the primary threat once again from the mid afternoon into
evening time frame (perhaps greatest threat in the early
evening hours).

have not made any changes to the previous heat headlines at this
time. it does appear with decaying convection this morning, there
should be time for temps to recover enough that mid 90s to around
100 heat indices are possible again for the heat advisory area.

for sunday a weak upper jet streak is progged to dive southeast in
upper level diffluent flow across the northern plains and may
tend to phase with remnants of the saturday night short wave
trough. this feature will be slow to shift eastward into early
monday. convective evolution is of very low confidence for
sunday with a continued weak shear/moderate cape setup possible.
column moisture should still be quite impressive, but overall
weakly forced nature of this setup and weak kinematic profiles
should limit overall severe threat. cannot rule out a localized
heavy rain producer sunday given what should be fairly slow
storm motions if storms can develop, along with a very low
probability of a precip loaded gusty storm. whatever outflow
boundaries are leftover from saturday night and exactly where
sfc reflection of this mid/upper level troughing pattern sets up
are items of lower confidence that will influence convective
forecast for sunday.

the trend to a quieter pattern early next week still looks
intact as positive mid/upper level height tendencies build in
behind slowly eastward migrating negative upper height anomaly
across the ohio valley/southern great lakes. proximity of the
upper level trough could still provide some diurnally enhanced
scattered showers and storms on monday, particularly east of
i-69 corridor. this incoming ridge may be dampened by the late
wed/thu period as more active northern stream takes shape. some
leading return positive low level theta-e advection and some
additional frontal forcing could allow for renewed shower/storm
chances for middle and latter portions of the upcoming work
week.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 632 am edt sat jul 4 2026

composite outflow and proximity of sfc boundary dropping across
the southern great lakes has provided some ifr conditions to
ksbn. this ifr cigs appear to be short-lived with low
probabilities that they will last past 12z this morning.
otherwise, elevated showers with a few storms persist this
morning well north of an outflow boundary that has dropped
south across northern indiana. much like yesterday, will need to
watch the potential of another convectively enhanced short wave
coming out of decaying convection across n mo/ia with some
isentropic forcing possible downstream of this wave as it
potentially interacts with synoptic and/or outflow boundaries.
best chance of thunder redevelopment today appears to be after
19z at ksbn, and after 21 or 22z at kfwa. given influence of
this outflow boundary, instability fields will likely be a bit
less than yesterday and suppressed a bit to the south. given
dependence of mesoscale details once again, did not have enough
confidence to go more than prob30 tsra mention this afternoon.
some mvfr vsbys/cigs are possible late in this period as
synoptic boundary begins to drop south and due to influence of
likely outflow boundary passage/moist low levels.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 041041
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
641 am edt sat jul 4 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms today with an
isolated risk for strong to severe storms.

- additional chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms on sunday
as a low pressure system drifts south of the state. there is an even
lower chance for isolated strong to severe storms.

- heat and humidity remain to start the weekend but at more
manageable levels with highs in the mid 80s and heat indices in the
low to mid 90s today.

&&

.aviation...

humid airmass remains in place supporting areas of light
showers/drizzle for the first part of the morning. a weak surface
front sagging south out of northern lower mi reaches the saginaw
valley by this afternoon which is expected to spur the development
of scattered storms. this activity expands southward into the
evening so have included tempo groups from mbs to ptk, though some
timing refinements are likely. for the detroit terminals, flipped ts
mention back to prob30s as model trends favor areas north of ptk
seeing storms through the daylight hours today. these southern
terminals have another opportunity late tonight as a portion remnant
convection over the southwestern great lakes potentially works into
southern se mi, though confidence is only high enough for prob30
mentions.

d21/dtw convection... low chances for widely scattered storms this
afternoon-evening with greater potential on the northernmost
portions of the d21 airspace. second window for thunder late tonight
as remnant convection could clip the detroit airspace after roughly
07z.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon, medium late tonight.

* low for ceilings at or below 5kft today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 am edt sat jul 4 2026

discussion...

hot and humid conditions remain across the region on this
independence day as zonal flow pattern has positioned itself across
the great lakes locking in this airmass another day. there are
slight changes over the days past as the most unstable air has been
shunted south by the southward advancing outflow boundary resultant
of the multiple storm complexes over the last couple days. this
should provide focus once again today for stronger surface based
convection. a second boundary is setting up across mid mi as high
pressure builds over ontario, focusing the active mid level wave
train across that region. temps will once again rise into the 80s,
to near 90 close to the ohio border with dewpoints still around 70.
pwats have come down a bit but remain around 1.5 inches which is
plenty for storms to work with. primary forcing for convection will
be the passing mid level waves with the first exiting the area early
this morning. could see a several hour dry period before the next
wave drift down across the mid mi frontal boundary looking to fire
the next round of storms which would drift east and south through
the afternoon. cape is a bit lower around 1500-2000 j/kg with modest
shear around 20 knots and decent low level lapse rates but mid level
lapse rates are a bit underwhelming leading to tall skinny cape. all
in all, expecting another round of convection this afternoon into
evening with isolated strong to severe storms possible. damaging
winds will be the primary threat with hail and isolated flooding
risks still possible. spc has the region in general thunder with
marginal risk along the state line.

a stronger mid level trough drifting across the central plains will
deepen over the mid ms valley sunday with an associated surface low
in that general area. isentropic ascent ahead of the low will
increase the theta e over se mi with the deformation axis passing
over through the afternoon. this should lead to a longer duration
rain over far southern mi with showers and embedded thunderstorms,
with a sharp cutoff to drier conditions across the northern
counties. the passage of the cold front late saturday and the low to
the southwest will flip winds around to the northeast providing
additional level of relief from the warm humid airmass, with highs
around 80 and dewpoints falling to around 60.

the low will still be south of the area on monday providing some
chance for rain but continues dry air advection from the northeast
will lower probabilities. the mid level trough pulling away opens
the door for ridging to build back over the region through the start
of the week. slow warming trend through mid week with persistent
ridging opens the door for high temps to inch back up toward 90 for
wednesday and thursday.

marine...

ambient winds will remain light outside of any isolated or scattered
showers or thunderstorms that can bring some localized stronger
gusts this morning. a weak cold front does sweep through today which
will pivot wind direction from the northeast, with the frontal
boundary stalling around southern michigan. additional shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend given the
warm and humid airmass. some stronger storm development will again
be possible both today and tomorrow, favored across the southern
great lakes. any stronger thunderstorm will be capable of producing
wind gusts aoa 40 knots.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...drk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.