Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
478
fxus61 kcle 131734
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1234 pm est sat dec 13 2025

.synopsis...
a strong cold front sweeps southeastward across our region
this morning. behind the front, a trough lingers over and near
lake erie through sunday as a ridge builds from the north-
central united states to the ohio valley. the ridge then builds
eastward across our entire region sunday night into monday
before departing to the east coast midweek

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
- lake-effect snow (les) warning remains in effect for nw pa
from 7 am today to 7 am est this monday
- les warning now in effect for the primary snowbelt of ne oh
and cuyahoga county from 10 am today to 7 am this monday
- winter wx advisory remains in effect for the secondary
snowbelt of ne oh from 1 pm today to 7 am this monday
- winter wx advisory remains in effect for stark and mahoning
counties from 1 pm today to 7 pm sunday
- remainder of winter wx advisory in northern oh remains in
effect from 1 pm today to 7 am sunday

in the mid/upper-levels, cyclonic w`erly flow aloft persists
over the lake erie region and upper oh valley through tonight as
embedded shortwave troughs affect our region and a primary
shortwave trough axis approaches from mb, canada and eventually
the western great lakes. closer to the surface, a shortwave
trough axis in roughly the 925 to 700 mb layer will move from
the northern great plains this morning toward new england and
the mid-atlantic region by daybreak sunday. at the surface, a
strong cold front will sweep generally se`ward across our region
between roughly daybreak and late this afternoon as the
preceding ridge continues to exit toward new england. behind the
front, a thermal trough develops over relatively-warm lake erie
while an arctic ridge builds from the north-central united
states to the oh valley and vicinity. today`s daytime highs will
reach the mid 20`s to lower 30`s ahead of the cold front. the
"warmest" highs are expected farther to the east and southeast
in our cwa, where a later cold front passage will occur. strong
post-front low-level caa will contribute to lows reaching mainly
the 5f to 15f range around daybreak sunday.

early this morning, les is organizing/strengthening gradually
over lake erie and over portions of western ny amidst a
cyclonic wsw`erly to sw`erly mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of the ~3c lake, weak
lake-induced cape (licape), and low/mid-level moisture
advection ahead of the front and aforementioned 925-700 mb
shortwave trough axis. isolated to scattered snow showers
should accompany the front`s passage as convergence/ascent
along the front release weak potential instability located in
the lowest 1 km agl. low-level convergence/ascent along the
front will also enhance the lake erie les. the les will settle
s`ward into our primary snowbelt counties during the mid-
morning through late afternoon hours of today as the cold
front`s passage causes mean low-level flow to veer from sw`erly
to w`erly. the les will be steady to heavy at times per model
soundings, which continue to indicate low-level convergence
along the major axis or axes of les banding will result in a
crosshair signature (i.e. moderate to strong and maximized
ascent will be collocated with a cloudy dgz at least 0.5 to 1
km deep). during this evening through daybreak sunday, the les
will settle over the snowbelt and vicinity in ne oh/nw pa as the
mean low- level flow of progressively colder/sufficiently-moist
air veers from w`erly to nw`erly and licape grows to moderate
magnitudes, due in part to the development of upstream moisture
connections to lakes huron and st. clair. the les will be steady
to heavy at times, with snowfall rates as high as 1-2" per
hour, due in part to a crosshair signature. in addition to the
les, widespread snow will overspread our region from west to
east this afternoon through very early early evening. this snow
will be associated with moist isentropic ascent and
frontogenetical convergence ahead of the aforementioned 925 to
700 mb shortwave trough axis. the frontogenetical convergence
will result from flow in that aforementioned layer backing
slightly from w`erly to wsw`erly ahead of the shortwave`s axis.
this backing of the 925 to 700 mb mean flow is still expected to
be most-pronounced farther south in our cwa. the widespread
snow should be steady to heavy at times, especially roughly
along and south of u.s. route 30, where the fgen aloft and moist
isentropic ascent should allow moderate to strong and maximized
ascent to be collocated with a cloudy dgz about 1 to 2 km deep,
which should yield periodic snowfall rates up to 1" per hour.
note: as the widespread snow overspreads lake erie and vicinity,
the seeder-feeder process and continued presence of at least
weak licape over the lake should enhance the aforementioned les
further for a time this afternoon and evening. the widespread
snow will then exit our entire region from west to east between
~6 pm and midnight tonight as much drier air, especially in the
850 to 700 mb layer, overspreads our area behind the shortwave
trough axis.

by daybreak sunday, fresh snow accumulations are expected to
reach 1-5" outside the snowbelt. the greatest of these
accumulations should be focused roughly along and south of u.s.
route 30, where the winter wx advisory remains in effect. within
the snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa, fresh snow accumulations should
reach 3-7" by daybreak sunday. the greatest of these accumulations
are expected in the higher terrain just east of cleveland and
in the higher terrain of southern erie county, pa, where upslope
enhancement of snow will also be a factor.

&&

.short term /sunday through monday night/...
up in the mid/upper-levels, the prominent shortwave trough axis
should sweep se`ward across our cwa between daybreak and early
afternoon on sunday. behind that shortwave trough axis, high
pressure at the surface and aloft will build generally from the
west through monday night and as mentioned in the near-term
section, the surface ridge will be associated with a rather cold
air mass. however, on monday, another shortwave trough should
move se`ward across our region and temporarily weaken the ridge
at the surface and aloft. daytime highs should reach only the
15f to 25f range on sunday and the upper teens to upper 20`s on
monday. overnight lows should reach mainly the 5f to 15f range
around daybreak monday and 10f to the upper teens around
daybreak tuesday. the coldest wind chills of the seven-day
forecast period are expected on sunday and monday. wind chills
as cold as 0f to -10f are expected around daybreak sunday and
as cold as the single digits above 0f to nearly -10f around
daybreak monday.

dry weather is expected across most of our region during the
short-term period, due in part to stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge. however, periods of les will impact the
snowbelt of ne oh/nw pa and vicinity on sunday amidst nw`erly
mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air, weak to
moderate licape over lake erie, and upstream moisture
connections to lakes st. clair and huron. thus, the les will
likely be steady to heavy at times. during sunday night, the les
is still expected to shift n`ward to our primary snowbelt
counties and vicinity as the mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air backs gradually to w`erly. the les
should weaken due to synoptic low-level dry air advection and a
lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the building ridge,
which will weaken licape. between daybreak sunday and daybreak
monday, additional les accumulations are expected to be highly
variable and range from a coating to 7". the greatest of these
accumulations should be focused in the higher terrain of
southern erie and northern crawford counties in nw pa, due to a
combination of upslope enhancement and a fairly prolonged
upstream moisture connection to lake huron.

les is expected to persist over and downwind of lake erie on
monday through most of monday night amidst at least weak licape
and a sufficiently-cold/moist mean low-level flow that should
vary between sw`erly and w`erly. thus, the les should be
transient. ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough axis,
moist isentropic ascent may allow scattered snow showers to
occur outside the les, especially in ne oh and nw pa. in
addition, the seeder-feeder process should occur ahead of the
shortwave trough axis and enhance the les for a time. additional
snow accumulations of a coating to several inches are possible.
the les should weaken monday night and end by daybreak tuesday
amidst weakening licape due in part to a lowering subsidence
inversion behind the shortwave trough axis.

&&

.long term /tuesday through friday/...
current odds favor dry weather this tuesday through wednesday
as the above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft continues
to exit e`ward. in addition, net low-level waa along the
backside of the ridge should be accompanied by highs in the
upper 20`s to mid 30`s tuesday afternoon and the upper 30`s to
lower 40`s wednesday afternoon. lows should reach mainly the
20`s around midnight tuesday night and begin to moderate during
the predawn hours of wednesday morning as the aforementioned
low-level waa strengthens.

a trough at the surface and aloft should overspread our region
from the west on wednesday night through thursday. in addition,
a cold front should approach our region from the upper midwest
and vicinity on thursday as net low-level waa persists in
northern oh and nw pa. lows should reach the upper 20`s to mid
30`s wednesday evening and be followed by moderating readings by
the predawn hours of thursday morning. highs should then reach
the lower 40`s to 50f on thursday as low-level waa continues to
strengthen due to deepening of the trough at the surface and
aloft. a low-level return flow of warm and moist air from the
gulf should undergo isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the front
and primary trough axis aloft, and allow periods of precip to
affect our region wednesday night through thursday. a mix of
snow and rain is in our official forecast wednesday night before
changing to just rain on thursday as temperatures and wet-bulb
temperatures moderate via waa at the surface and aloft. will
have to monitor this portion of the forecast closely, including
how exactly the vertical profiles of temperature and wet-bulb
temperature are projected to evolve.

at this juncture, it appears the cold front and primary trough
axis aloft will sweep e`ward through our region thursday night
and be followed by a ridge at the surface and aloft building
from the west through friday. lows should reach the upper teens
to mid 20`s around daybreak friday. highs should reach the upper
20`s to mid 30`s friday afternoon. additional periods of precip
are expected thursday night due to convergence/moist ascent
along the cold front and moist isentropic ascent ahead of the
trough axis aloft. behind the surface cold front, rain should
change to snow via the wet-bulb effect and caa at the surface
and aloft before widespread precip ends behind the trough axis
aloft. will monitor trends in nwp model guidance for accumulating
snow potential. overnight thursday night into friday, the
environment should become cold and moist enough to support les
over/downwind of lake erie, but all of the following remain very
uncertain at this time: mean low-level flow direction; licape
magnitude; placement, intensity, and amounts of les.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
mvfr conditions continue across the region with ceilings around
1.5kft and will continue through the majority of the taf period for
most sites. widespread snow showers will begin to move in from the
west this afternoon bringing down visibility to less than a mile a
times. this system will be quick to exit with conditions improving
by 05-08z tomorrow morning. lake effect snow showers are expected
behind the widespread snow impacting the snow belts and further
inland at times. the western extent of the lake effect snow toward
kcle is still uncertain given the wind direction, though for areas
eastward, expect impacts through the remainder of the taf period.
lake effect snow bands could reach as far south as kcak and kyng by
mid morning tomorrow. there is potential for a lake effect band to
come off of lake michigan overnight tonight impacting ktol and kfdy,
though confidence is lower in this.

winds during the taf period will be fairly consistent out of the
west at around 10 knots gusting up to 20-25 knots during the
afternoon today and during the day tomorrow. at location along the
lake shore from kcle to keri, winds will begin to veer to be more
northwesterly.

outlook...non-vfr conditions are possible with lake effect snow
showers in northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania
through monday night.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds currently around 10-20 knots will strengthen this
morning, shifting to westerlies and peaking around 30 knots late
this morning into the early afternoon. a small craft advisory is in
effect for the entire nearshore waters of lake erie to account for
this. toledo water level is forecast to drop to around the low water
datum later this morning into the early afternoon, which is 8 inches
above the critical mark for safe navigation. at this time, a low
water advisory is not expected for the western basin of lake erie.

winds become northwest saturday night through sunday night and will
generally be in the 15 to 25 knot range, though could approach 30
knots at times late sunday morning into early sunday afternoon,
especially in the central basin where wave heights up to 6-9 feet
may be possible. the small craft advisory continues through sunday
night and monday morning to account for this.

southwest flow develops again on monday and persists through the
rest of the week. wind speeds will oscillate with periods of wind
speeds in the 20-30 knot range. additional small craft advisories
are expected. there is increasing chance of gale force winds
thursday into friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 am est monday for ohz010-
020>023.
lake effect snow warning until 7 am est monday for ohz011>014-
089.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est sunday for ohz029>031-
036>038-047.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est sunday for ohz032-033.
pa...lake effect snow warning until 7 am est monday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est monday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory until 7 am est monday for lez144>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...23
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 131749
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1249 pm est sat dec 13 2025

.key messages...

- period of light snow arrives by late morning south of us-24
and briefly expands north this afternoon across most areas.
quick 1 to 3 inches of accumulation (highest south).

- lake effect snowshowers expected this evening into sunday
morning, mainly in the counties of berrien, la porte, cass and
st. joseph in. 1 to locally as much as 3 inches is expected,
along with some blowing and drifting snow.

- below zero wind chills tonight and sunday night, with values
of -15 to -20 south of us-30 tonight.

- warmer temperatures return starting tuesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 446 am est sat dec 13 2025

the leading edge of the initial shot of caa is moving across ne
il. highs today will reached near or shortly after sunrise with
temperatures falling into the teens by early afternoon. a fast
moving, strengthening wave will sweep through central il this
morning and central in this afternoon with a swath of snow
expected to accompany it. while confidence is high on many areas
seeing at least a period of light snow, mainly focused on this
afternoon, overall amounts by early evening are still somewhat
in question given the greatest forcing and possible mesobanding
remains along and south of us-24, with qpf and subsequent snow
amounts rapidly tapering with northern extent. accumulations
along and north of us-6 are expected to be an inch or less,
increasing to an average of 2 to 3 inches as you drop south of
us-30. increasing winds, falling temperatures and reduced
visibilities will cause some minor travel issues as snow
removal operations become less effective in the colder
temperatures. opted to go with a winter weather advisory for the
southern tier of our indiana counties where the highest amounts
are expected. regardless of whether you are in a headline or
not, if you are traveling today, make sure to have a winter
preparedness kit in your vehicle and dress appropriately.

the system snow will quickly end by evening with the focus then
shifting to lake effect snow showers as well sub zero wind
chills into sunday morning. models have been showing a somewhat
slower trend on uptick in lake effect snow showers until after
3z sun as the main shot of caa arrives (850 mb temps aob -20 c).
despite very favorable lake parameters (lk-850 mb delta ts in
the mid to upper 20s and plenty of lift), the dgz will reside
rather low and a good deal of dry air will be advected across
the lake from wisconsin (sfc dewpoints in the negative teens) to
lead towards smaller flake size. some travel impacts are still
possible, especially closer to lk mi where average snow amounts
of 1 to as high as 3 inches are expected. gusty nw winds will
also bring some blowing and drifting snow with snow covered
roads likely to pose challenges overnight. collaboration took
place with grr on a possible advisory, but with the main impacts
delayed till mid evening at the earliest it was decided to
defer any headline to the day shift to monitor trends and latest
guidance. the lake effect snow showers may make it well inland
briefly late tonight into sunday morning before quickly tapering
off by afternoon.

with regards to temperatures and specifically wind chills, sub
zero wind chills will commence this afternoon in the west and
expand east. as skies clear outside the main lake effect plume
and winds remain on the stronger side, wind chills will drop
into the -15 to -20 range, mainly south of us-30. as a result, a
cold weather advisory has been issued for these areas. if any
areas of clearing occur further ne or cloud cover isn`t as
extensive inland, a larger area could see these colder values.
the cold temperatures persist into monday with highs in the mid
teens to lower 20s and lows in the single digits. wind chills
will "warm" to +5 to -5 f each afternoon, but then fall again
sunday night as clear skies allow for overnight lows from 5
above to 5 below zero. although winds will be somewhat weaker,
the colder temperatures will still result in many areas seeing
wind chills of 10 to 15 below zero. there could be a need for
additional headlines sunday night, but for now focus remains
with the period of greatest confidence.

no changes beyond monday as a moderating pattern commences with
highs heading back above freezing tuesday and persisting the
remainder of the week. some additional precip chances will exist
with ptypes depending on the time of day it occurs.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1245 pm est sat dec 13 2025

snow has overspread much of northern indiana this afternoon,
largely in response to the activation of a mid/upper level
frontal zone by an upstream short wave. latest observational and
short range guidance trends guidance to support kfwa and points
southward for best snowfall accumulations (generally in the 1
to 3 inch range at kfwa). elevated lift and top-down saturation
appears to have favored some seeder-feeder processes at ksbn
with brief redevelopment of lake enhanced snow showers
downstream of the main synoptic system. however, it still
appears ksbn will be on the northern periphery of system snow,
with low confidence in any notable duration periods with
anything lower than mvfr vsbys. system snow will depart to the
east this evening which will be followed by quick transition
late evening/overnight to lake effect snow showers. ksbn should
see some periods of vsby restrictions tonight into early sunday.
cold temperatures in boundary layer and very shallow based dgz
should allow for small flake size that could be more efficient
vsby reducers. some lake effect snow showers are possible at
kfwa overnight for a time, but confidence is too low to include
at this time. inversion heights should sharply drop mid morning
sunday with lake effect snow showers expected to taper quickly.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from midnight tonight to 1 pm est sunday
for inz013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for inz020-
022-023-032>034.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est sunday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
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fxus63 kdtx 131725
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1225 pm est sat dec 13 2025

.key messages...

- bitter cold temperatures for the weekend into monday. the coldest
period will be tonight and sunday morning when actual air
temperatures bottom out at zero to 5f above. expect wind chills to
range between -15f to -10f by sunday morning.

-light snow activity along the southern michigan border this
afternoon, and snow showers along the eastern thumb shoreline
sunday.

- a dramatic warmup is then forecasted tuesday-thursday next week,
as temps likely push aoa 40 degrees, setting the stage for rain
thursday.

&&

.aviation...

cold air advection with west flow will continue to maintain a
bkn/ovc ceiling with cig heights holding at mvfr between 2.2kft to 3
kft. advection of lake moisture will sustain flurries during the
daylight hours. the only possible window for light accumulation will
be across the metro terminals as an upper-level disturbance
continues to round through the ohio valley, which may clip into
southern michigan. if the northern edge of the precipitation shield
makes it into michigan, a dusting of snowfall accumulation will be
possible. otherwise, west flow of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots is expected through the day.

for dtw...flurries will remain likely through daylight hours. there
will be a window between 19-23z where snow rates may pick up as the
snow activity now across the ohio valley attempts to lift north. the
latest data shows around a 30% chance that this activity will lift
into the metro terminal. will maintain the ongoing tempo group to
highlight this potential window of snow.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight, moderate overnight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 245 am est sat dec 13 2025

discussion...

light snow showers moving through early this morning with an arctic
front passing through, clearing southeast michigan around 12z
saturday. jet streak/wave tracking through the ohio valley this
afternoon, and model consensus is for the snow shield to mostly pass
to our south. however, locations south of i-94 to the southern
michigan border will likely get glanced by some higher based
forcing/fgen/modest moisture advection or a low level streamer
coming off lake michigan, and would expected a dusting to an inch of
accumulation right along the border. otherwise, arctic air streaming
into the great lakes region through tonight will be the big weather
story. 00z international falls raob indicated an 850 mb temp of -25
c, while pickle lake ontario came in with -26 c. some modification
expected as the airmass crosses lake superior/lake michigan, but 850
mb temps of -20 to -22 c (per 00z nam/regional gem) over southern
lower michigan seems reasonable tonight. with unfavorable northwest
flow for lake effect, should see at least partial clearing, but
passing flurries are possible from time to time. still counting on
surface winds to not fully decouple to keep mins in the zero to 5
degree range for most locations. however, with winds around 10 mph,
that will allow wind chills to reach 10 to 15 degrees below zero.
still marginal for cold weather advisory. did take a look at the
record lows for december 14th, and flint`s daily record low of zero
(1944) seems to be in jeopardy, as the euro ensembles are clustered
around that mark.

still have concerns for lake effect snow showers to impact eastern
thumb shoreline on sunday as winds veer around to the north-
northwest with pronounced surface trough dropping south through lake
huron. bulk of the hi-res solutions still keep the multi-bands
mostly offshore, but it will bear watching. a quick inch or two
along the shoreline is possible at the very least.

shortwave coming over the top of the upper level ridge over the
rockies swings through lake huron on monday. model trends suggest
best forcing tracking through northern lower michigan/lake huron,
and will continue with just low chance pops back across southeast
michigan.

big warm advection pattern develops early next week with 500 mb
heights rising to at least 558 dam with increasing low level
southwest flow, sending temps well above freezing and likely in the
40s on thursday. rain appears likely on thursday as well ahead of a
strong cold front, with post frontal wind gusts likely reaching at
least 30-40 mph.

marine...

the arctic front will finish pushing through the region during the
early morning hours with winds turning westerly in its wake. there
will also be an increase to wind speed due to a tighter gradient and
cold air advection into the region with gusts of 25 to 30 knots
possible across parts of central and southern lake huron. winds will
remain elevated in the upper 20 knot range through the day with the
coldest of the arctic air arriving late this evening and overnight
which will cause a boost to the winds to around 30 knots across the
southern basin. at this time, guidance suggests we`ll stay below 35
knot gales but that will be something to watch in the upstream
observations. a long duration small craft advisory is in effect
through monday morning to account for this cold unstable airmass and
period of wind and waves. the cold airmass and elevated winds will
also lead to potential snow squalls and freezing spray as well.

climate...

the record low min temps for sunday, december 14th.

detroit: -1 degrees (set in 1914)
flint: 0 degrees (set in 1944)
saginaw: -7 degrees (set in 1917)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory from 7 am sunday to 4 am est monday for lhz442-
443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
discussion...sf
marine.......drk
climate......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.