Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
089
fxus61 kcle 290645
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
245 am edt thu oct 29 2026

.what has changed...
precipitation forecast is trending drier sunday into monday.

&&

.key messages...
1) above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from scattered
rain showers tonight, will continue into sunday.

2) better chance for rainfall will come early to mid-week next
week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the new england coast
will exit the region today as a cold front approaches from the upper
great lakes region. ahead of the cold front, southerly flow
will warm high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, roughly
10-15 degrees above normal for late october. a few sites have
the potential to approach or reach record warm high
temperatures for today. the cold front will arrive in northwest
ohio this afternoon and gradually slide southeast across the
forecast area through late tonight. scattered showers will be
possible along the front with precipitation chances remaining
between 40-50% with locally higher chances (50-70%) across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania where
better upper level support is present. cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder across northwest ohio late afternoon/early evening as
mlcape values of 200-400 j/kg are forecast.

dry weather returns friday and saturday as another area of high
pressure builds across the region. slightly cooler, albeit
still above normal, with highs in the 60s friday and saturday
behind the cold front. chilly overnight lows friday night in the
40s for most and the low to mid 30s in the higher terrain of
northwest pennsylvania.

key message 2...
there remains some discrepancy between medium/long range models
regarding rain chances sunday night into monday. overall, the
forecast is trending drier for that time frame as the aforementioned
surface high centered over the region may inhibit rainfall. the high
pushes to the east early next week as a broad upper trough digs into
the central and eastern conus. models seem to be in a bit better
agreement with this system bringing appreciable rainfall to the
region sometime middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr conditions are expected to continue at local terminals
through mid afternoon. a weak cold front will approach from the
northwest after 20z and will be accompanied by scattered showers
with a very low potential for a thunderstorm. included a tempo
for showers at tol 21-23z, cle 23-01z, and eri 23-03z. showers
will likely reach fdy as well but expect to see a general
decreasing trend as the front pushes south through the evening
so only included showers in the vicinity at mfd/cak/yng. brief
mvfr ceilings and visibilities will be possible with showers.
otherwise several terminals will experience breezy southwest
winds gusting to around 20 knots ahead of the front, shifting to
the west/northwest behind the frontal passage between 00-06z. a
few higher wind gusts to 30 knots are possible with showers.

outlook...mainly vfr. low confidence in non-vfr with rain
sunday night or monday.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 10-20 knots this
morning ahead of a cold front before shifting northwesterly 10-15
knots behind the front. choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet
in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage
through early friday morning. northerly winds diminish to 10-15
knots as high pressure returns on friday before the high exits
to the east on saturday and winds 10 knots or less shift
easterly. offshore flow 10 knots or less will continue into the
early part of next week.

&&

.climate...
we are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth
today. here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on october 29th:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...10
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
821
fxus63 kiwx 291010
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
610 am edt thu oct 29 2026

.key messages...

- 20% to 40% chance of isolated showers this afternoon as a cold
front moves through. remaining very warm ahead of the front.

- not quite as warm this weekend but still above-normal to end
october.

- 20 to 40% chance of showers on halloween, mainly west of i-
69.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 212 am edt thu oct 29 2026

high pressure continues to flex its muscle over the eastern conus
early this morning. water vapor shows fleeting pacific moisture
return to a cold front working its way through the midwest, but
battling the aformentioned high. satellite and radar show a broken
line of showers from central wi (whose population is basking in a
world series championship) through eastern iowa, while a better
organized area of rain occurs north-northeast of there. back at
home, preexisting dry air keeps a majority of the day dry. however,
there is growing concensus that modest saturation below 16,000 ft
and adequate upper-level forcing from the right entrance region of a
departing 500-mb jet will be enough for at least isoalted showers
along the cold front from west to east after 12pm edt. cannot
completely rule out an isoalted thunderstorm as a thin ribbon of
instability accompanies the front, per high resolution ensembles.
skies quickly clear out behind the front and lows will tumble to
near 40 by friday morning.

the rest of the forecast period is characterized by cooler, but
still above-noraml temperatures, and increasing chances for rain. we
continue to monitor the 20-40% chance of showers saturday west of i-
69 as a weak shortwave lifts in from the southern plains. preceding
high pressure, will be fighting to keep halloween dry, yet the rain
chance must continue at this time. the better surge of moisture
arrives in the sunday-monday time frame as high pressure centers
over the appalachians steering gulf moisture poleward. this area of
rain would be followed by a mid-latitude cyclone in the tuesday-
wednesday period, bringing mild and breezy conditions ahead of it,
rain, and then a dose of cooler air. the magnitude of these details
remain murky owing to the uncertain degree of phasing between a
subtropical jet moving over the baja, and a great basin trough
poised to move onshore this weekend.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 607 am edt thu oct 29 2026

existing tafs remain on track at this time. a narrow area of
mvfr ceilings upstream warrants the continued mvfr mention at
ksbn. otherwise, opted to improve visiblilty associated with
-shra given the shallow moisture source. isoalted afternoon
showers give way to veering surface wind, becoming calm near
daybreak with decreasing clouds behind the front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
907
fxus63 kdtx 290716
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
316 am edt thu oct 29 2026

.key messages...

- much above normal temperatures continue today with highs again
into the 70s. these high temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

- there is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.

- dry and continued mild this weekend.

&&

.discussion...

a cold front will sweep across lower mi today between about 18z and
00z bringing with it a scattered showers and gusty southwesterly
winds. the front was meridional passing through mn and wi today with
strong fgen and a strong low level jet feeding the front. as the
surface low tracks from lake superior tonight up to western quebec by
this afternoon, it will drag the front through the area which will
become increasingly more positively tilted. the fgen weakens and
becomes disorganized and the low level jet lifts northeastward away
from lower mi. a weak mid level wave will move into the area as the
front passes this afternoon which will help daytime heating to bring
very weak instability over the area with mucape up to a couple
hundred j/kg. lapse rates are still in the 6-7 c/km range for the
most part in the narrow moist layer ahead of the front. expectations
are for scattered showers to move into saginaw valley this morning
before spreading south and east across the area with the front
through the afternoon. a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms may
accompany the showers, especially later this afternoon around the
detroit area as the front tries to re-intensify before exiting to
the southeast.

high temperatures will rise into the 70s once more today with the
later frontal passage. the next ridge building in behind the front
out of canada will bring a cooler airmass with 850mb temps down to
around 5c. lows tonight will respond dropping into the mid to upper
30s for most locations away from the detroit heat island. highs
friday will then struggle to hit 60s, which is actually still above
normal for late october. mostly clear skies to start friday night
will allow for a quick drop in temps once again down to around
freezing in the thumb. clouds will start filling back in across the
south so will limit the cooling potential closer to the ohio border
so lows may struggle to drop below 40.

the aforementioned clouds are associated with a southern stream
front lifting into the ohio valley. elevated portions will extend
toward southern mi but strong surface high and overall upper level
height rises will result in strong stability and prevent precip from
making it into southeast mi. this ridging will hold into the new
week keeping temperatures running above normal through this
time. the next system slated to enter the region tuesday.

&&

.marine...

strong southwest low level jet tracking through the central great
lakes early this morning. however, the warm advection pattern is
helping to limit mixing depths and stronger winds from reaching the
surface. nonetheless, still expecting gusts at or above 25
knots, most prevalent over central lake huron extending back into
saginaw bay. a small craft advisory remains in early this
afternoon for these wind gusts. offshore flow, however, should keep
waves mostly in the 2 to 4 foot range however.

behind the cold front, wind speeds look to be maximized over
northern lake huron where cold advection is most robust. 850 mb
temps progged to fall below zero thursday night, promoting deeper
mixing and northwest gusts of 25 to 30 knots. confidence is high in
a period of 25 to 30 knot gusts over northern lake huron. high
pressure quickly builds into the central great lakes friday
afternoon, setting up lighter winds and dry conditions over the
weekend.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1144 pm edt wed oct 28 2026

aviation...

cloud cover increases late tonight into thursday morning as a cold
front pushes east from wisconsin into lower michigan. while moisture
quality associated with the front wanes as it encounters a drier
airmass and decreasing low level jet influence, remnant moisture
will be capable of producing showers initially at mbs as early as
~10z. this decaying band of showers will mark the lead edge of
lowering vfr ceilings, which may briefly dip below 3.0 kft right
along the frontal passage. broken shower activity is also expected
invof the front, with a low chance of a thunderstorm as lapse rates
approach 6.5 c/km. wind direction will gradually veer from its
current southerly direction to southwest thursday morning before
veering more aggressively to the northwest in the afternoon-evening
with the frontal passage. clearing skies and calmer northwest flow
emerge late thursday evening in the post-front environment, although
the cooler nw flow will activate moisture flux off the lakes that
may result in expansion of low stratus toward the airspace at the
end of the taf period.

d21/dtw convection...marginal instability will accompany a cold
front passage thursday afternoon-evening. there is a low chance a
few thunderstorms may develop along the front.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet thursday afternoon and
evening.

* low for thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening (mainly 20z
to 00z).


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422-
441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...drk
marine.......sf
aviation.....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.