Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 060115
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
747 pm edt tue may 5 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes. still looking at a good 0.75-1.30" of rain across
central and eastern portions of our area through early wednesday with
low-end flooding potential.

&&

.key messages...
1) widespread rain is expected through early wednesday, with a few
isolated thunderstorms also possible through this evening. some
minor/nuisance flooding is possible in prone locations.

2) quieter and cooler weather with limited frost potential returns
for the second half of the week.

3) a more unsettled pattern with occasional rain chances returns late
friday through the beginning of next week, but with generally low
potential for any hazardous weather.

&&

.discussion...
key message #1:

a cold front is progressing southeast across the area this
afternoon. can not rule out some weak convection firing along the
cold front from the youngstown area into inland northwest pa late
this afternoon, though otherwise the bulk of the rain is post-frontal
and beginning to spread in from the west as of this writing. this
cold front is initially shallow and sloped, so even though the
surface front will clear our area to the southeast this evening it
will take until early wednesday morning for the mid-level front to
clear the area. the combination of the upper-reaches of the front and
a couple of shortwaves moving east-northeast across the region will
lead to continued lift and a fairly widespread/persistent rain
tonight, with rain exiting to the east very late tonight into
wednesday morning. by later this evening any elevated instability
should be used up, so most of the rain will be more stratiform in
nature outside of limited convection potential over the next several
hours, which is confined our south and southeast.

rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.30" remain in the forecast across central
and eastern portions of our area through early wednesday, with more
along the lines of 0.30-0.75" across the toledo area. locally higher
rainfall amounts may still play out if a corridor of organized
convection can evolve late this afternoon or evening, though that
overall concern has decreased a bit. overall, the idea of some
nuisance water issues with perhaps some minor river flooding at a
prone location (such as killbuck or phalanx station) should handle
it given the marginal/spread out duration of the rain.

lows will drop well into the 40s tonight as cooler weather returns,
with highs on wednesday in the mid to upper 50s. wednesday will not
feature much sun but will generally be once rain exits early. a few
sprinkles/showers may linger through midday across parts of northeast
oh and northwest pa...and a shortwave may bring a few sprinkles or
light showers from southwest to northeast across the area during the
afternoon and early evening, though weak lift and a drying column
decrease confidence in measurable rain occurring with this feature.

key message #2:

mainly quiet and cool weather is expected through the end of the
week. beneath cold air aloft, a shortwave and subtle surface trough
may be enough to spark a few showers across northeast oh or northwest
pa thursday afternoon, though much of the area should stay dry. a few
showers are possible on friday as a warm front lifts across the area,
though overall coverage looks low with any rain amounts light.

highs will remain in the 50s for thursday before recovering into the
60s (outside of the higher terrain of northwest pa) for friday. the
cooler airmass does bring some frost potential wednesday and thursday
nights, though neither is an ideal setup for it. a weak lingering
pressure gradient is expected wednesday night with some lingering
clouds possible across northeast oh/northwest pa, with increasing
clouds and a tightening pressure gradient expected for thursday night
as high pressure departs to the southeast and a warm front
approaches. still, some patchier frost may occur either or both
nights in typically colder inland locales.

key message #3:

a more active pattern is expected to return friday night through
early next week, on the southwestern periphery of deeper troughing
over southeast canada. systems are expected to move through friday
night and again sunday into monday, each bringing a window of
elevated rainfall chances. despite the unsettled pattern, neither
system currently appears to bring a notable severe weather or heavy
rain concern. temperatures will generally be near normal this
weekend, trending a bit cooler early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
cyclonic sw`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our
region through 00z/thurs. at the surface, a cold front extended
generally wsw`ward from just north and west of beaver falls, pa
to just east and south of millersburg, oh to near mount vernon,
oh and then to between sidney and dayton, oh at 23:35z/tues.
this front will continue moving generally se`ward and should
exit the rest of our region by 01z/wed. behind the front, a
surface ridge builds slowly from northern and eventually central
portions of the great plains through 00z/thurs. s`erly to
sw`erly surface winds of about 5 to 10 knots are expected ahead
of the cold front. behind the surface front, surface winds vary
between w`erly and ne`erly and remain around 5 to 10 knots
through 00z/thurs.

along and ahead of the surface cold front, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected. vfr are expected outside
these showers and storms, while conditions will vary between
mvfr and lifr in these showers and storms. these showers and
storms may produce brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 35
knots. behind the surface cold front passage, widespread mvfr
to lifr ceilings and periods of rain, steady to heavy at times,
will accompany moist ascent along the upper-reaches of the
front. this widespread rain will be accompanied by mist and
primarily mvfr to ifr visibility. however, areas of fog may
form for several hours in nw pa around daybreak wed, including
at/near keri. as the aforementioned surface ridge builds slowly into
our region, rain will end generally from west to east and a gradual
return to widespread vfr is expected between ~09z/wed and ~17z/wed.
however, scattered to broken cumuli with bases near 3.5kft to 5kft
agl are expected late wed morning through 00z/thurs.

outlook...current odds favor dry weather and widespread vfr
wednesday night through thursday night. periodic showers and
thunderstorms with non-vfr are expected this friday through
sunday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will move southeast of the lake this evening and
expect winds to shift to the north/northwest and diminish to 10
knots or less tonight through wednesday. from there, winds will
generally be out of the west/northwest at 10 knots or less with
periods of winds to 15 knots possible late wednesday night and
thursday night. southwest winds will develop late week and into
the weekend with winds and waves likely remaining below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sullivan
aviation...jaszka
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 052307
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
707 pm edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- rain with a few non-severe thunderstorms through late this
evening, mainly along and south of us 24. rain tapers off from
northwest to southeast later tonight. cloudy cover will become
more scattered overnight into wednesday morning. lows around
40 degrees.

- cool and dry wednesday and thursday, with highs in the mid-
upper 50s. low temperatures wednesday night into thursday
morning will be in the mid-upper 30s. areas of frost are
possible, especially in michigan and for areas along and north
of us 30 in indiana and ohio. warmer thursday night.

- warmer starting friday and continuing into the weekend, with
highs in the 60s and low 70s. there are chances for rain each
day, with the best potential friday afternoon and sunday.
thunderstorms are possible, especially friday afternoon.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 210 pm edt tue may 5 2026

a stalled cold front lingers just southeast of our cwa, with a sfc
trough over lake michigan that will shift eastward through the
afternoon and evening. aloft, fairly zonal flow today, with a
broader trough extending from a closed low over james bay into the
northern plains. at 300mb, a 120kt jet streak from south dakota to
quebec will couple with a 130kt jet streak extending from the desert
sw into our area. this will provide upper level support this
afternoon into later this evening for continued precipitation-
especially along and south of us 24. a surface low-type feature
lifts northeastward along our frontal boundary with time, with
moisture transport focused along/ahead of it (best transport to us
late this afternoon/early evening). upstream t-storm activity has
been sparse thus far, but with better forcing arriving along the
surface front late this afternoon/evening (peak heating), we could
see scattered development for a brief time. severe weather is not
expected. otherwise, in the far nw where precipitation chances are
lowest-expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

for areas north of us 24, expect cloud cover to become more
scattered overnight. rain chances taper off for areas along/south of
us 24, ending by morning. lows will fall to around 40 degrees.

expecting dry conditions on wednesday-thursday, with a surface high
building into the great lakes. an upper level trough associated with
the aforementioned 500mb low over james bay/hudson lake will bring a
couple of shortwaves through during this time, but dry air is likely
to preclude any precipitation until late thu pm/friday. highs will
be in the mid-upper 50s.

low temperatures wednesday night into thursday morning will be in
the mid-upper 30s. areas of frost are possible, especially in
michigan and for areas along and north of us 30 in indiana and ohio.
warmer thursday night. any sensitive vegetation could be damaged
with frost.

warm air advection friday will bring highs into the low to mid 60s
during the day, with a cold front passing through from nw to se late
in the afternoon/evening, reaching southeast of our area by 7am et
saturday. there are chances for showers and thunderstorms
along/ahead of the front. after a lull saturday morning, additional
chances for precipitation return in the late afternoon and overnight
as an upper level trough moves in. a surface low takes shape by
sunday morning right over il/in, and continues eastward through late
sunday evening. for now have higher-end precipitation chances during
this period, with low chances for thunder. highs saturday will be in
the upper 60s, low-mid 70s, then drop into the 60s, low 70s by
sunday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 704 pm edt tue may 5 2026

showers persist this evening on the backside of a cold front
that passed through the area earlier today; i can`t rule out a
few passing showers north of us 24 but showers are expected to
be most widespread along and south of the us 24 corridor. light
rain and mist will continue at kfwa until about 06z, with mvfr
to possibly even as low as ifr ceilings at times. ksbn is
expected to be dry. vfr ceilings are expected to prevail by
06-09z as clouds clear from northwest to southeast overnight.
winds become light and variable this evening and overnight,
increasing to around 10 kts out of the northwest by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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037
fxus63 kdtx 052303
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
703 pm edt tue may 5 2026

.key messages...

- much cooler temperatures and periodic shower chances rest of today
through friday.

- temperatures drop into the mid-30s thursday morning, possibly
leading to frost development.

- warmer this weekend with continued rain chances.

&&

.aviation...

maintenance of dry low level conditions ensures vfr through the taf
period. expansive area of mid level cloud will persist north of a
frontal boundary tonight. radar trends support latest model guidance
in maintain a higher probability of rainfall south of the region.
forecast will continue to highlight a period of clearing wednesday
morning. high based diurnal cu development and expansion for the
afternoon and early evening period. prevailing winds from the west
to northwest.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through thursday.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 328 pm edt tue may 5 2026

discussion...

broad longwave troughing governs the forecast over the next 7 days,
supporting a showery pattern and below normal temperatures through
the end of the work week. first instance of this is ongoing as the
elevated remnants of a frontal zone slowly exit se michigan. quicker
pace of the front has displaced the highest rain chances to our south
and east compared to previous forecasts, although a second wave of
moisture over western illinois may clip southern portions of the
forecast area later this evening. this keeps rain chances going
through late tonight for locations south of i-96. cloud cover
diminishes toward northern lower michigan away from the frontal zone,
with the saginaw valley/thumb on the northern fringe of the cloud
shield. this has implications for radiative cooling overnight, as
lows drop into the upper 30s to low 40s under a blanket of high
cloud. if cloud cover can clear entirely, some areas may see patchy
frost development (most likely for northern portions of midland/bay),
but confidence is low in this outcome.

thermal trough settles into the great lakes region wednesday-friday,
drawing a pool of -5 to -10 c 850mb temperatures overhead. this
leads to a period of below normal temperatures with daytime highs
only reaching the upper 50s. coldest temperatures are forecast to be
thursday morning (mid-30s) as the base of the trough coincides with
the diurnal minimum and clearing skies. frost/freeze headlines will
be considered in subsequent forecast updates. this period will also
be characterized by multiple embedded shortwaves pivoting around the
hudson bay upper low. diffluent northwest flow initially keeps
conditions dry wednesday, even amidst synoptic ascent as one such
wave glances across northern lower michigan and the left exit of a
155 knot jet streak surges in from the south. a stray shower cannot
entirely be ruled out invof the vort max, but overall 5.0-18.0 kft
agl dry layer should be sufficient in preventing widespread shower
development. combination of cold advection and the next embedded wave
thursday lead to steepening low level lapse rates (sfc-3km lapse
rates exceed 7.0 c/km) and moistening mid levels to increase
convective shower chances thursday afternoon-evening. this wave train
pattern continues friday into the weekend, carrying periodic rain
chances through the remainder of the forecast period.

the overall precipitation pattern offers low predictability given
weak/transient forcing, disjointed moisture quality, and synoptic
scale wave interactions. there is model signal for a cold front to
track across the area sometime saturday-saturday night, which would
provide a more focused opportunity for shower and thunderstorm
chances. depending on the timing of this front, temperatures could
warm well into the 60s saturday in the presence of warm and breezy
warm sector flow. ensemble members however still exhibit quite a bit
of variance in both timing/placement of the forcing this weekend
with a lot of details to work out before then.

marine...

a cold front is clearing the central great lakes this evening, with
cold air advection gradually filtering through over the next couple
of days. because the main low and tightest pressure gradient will
reside near or over hudson bay, winds are expected to stay mostly on
the light side (under 20 knots) for the rest of the work week. this
pattern of clipper systems bringing periodic chances for showers
will continue into the weekend as milder air and higher moisture
levels arrive. as it stands now, this leads to saturday night being
the primary window for showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold
front slowly moves through the region.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......sf

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.