Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
767
fxus61 kcle 022324
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
724 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

..00z taf aviation forecast update...

.what has changed...
the threat of severe storms has trended up for northwest pennsylvania
with an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for erie county pa. this
includes a threat of damaging winds and potential for a tornado.

&&

.key messages...
1) several rounds of thunderstorms are possible through midday on
friday. thunderstorms may be strong to severe at times, including a
threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.

2) hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue on
thursday. heat index values are forecast to be in the upper 90s
for another day in northwest ohio with upper 80s to lower 90s
forecast in northeast ohio.

3) cooler and drier weather is expected for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1... a broad ridge remains in place across the mid-
mississippi and ohio valley regions. hot and unstable conditions
remain in place with dewpoints in the low 70s and ml cape values of
2500-3000 j/kg. temperatures of 10c at 700mb can be a good indicator
of a capped environment and this threshold extends to just north of
mansfield in the west but south of youngstown in the east. so far a
lack of forcing has been a limiting factor for thunderstorms this
afternoon but that could change this evening.

the active storm track extends around the periphery of the ridge
from iowa across central lower michigan to new york. we are seeing
some cu trying to build across the snowbelt region with isolated to
scattered storms possible in this area between 4-8 pm. the first
couple showers that have developed have struggled to grow
vertically. we will have to see if this initial activity has
strong enough updrafts to be severe. later this evening, the
shortwave crossing lower michigan will move towards new york and
expect the potential for scattered strong to severe storms to
move south into northwest pennsylvania, likely extending
westward into ohio. effective shear values will increase to 40+
knots this evening coupled with backed flow in the low levels
downwind of lake erie. the spc has raised the severe weather
outlook across new york and extending into erie county pa to an
enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) while a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
remains from nearly toledo to youngstown. main time frame for
organized severe storms looks to be in the 7 pm - 11 pm window,
then settling south across northeast ohio overnight. a few of
the cams show another push of stronger storms late tonight
moving southeast along the boundary but confidence is low in
that occurrence.

the overnight activity will set the stage for thursday as the ridge
axis shifts slightly westward with northwest flow aloft. instability
will be very high again and expect to see scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop with daytime heating during the afternoon.
this could initially be focused from northwest to southeast across
the eastern counties of ohio but think we will see an expansion of
storms across much of northern ohio during the evening. still many
options for how this will evolve but the potential for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue. pw values of around
2 inches will support heavy rainfall. good coverage of
thunderstorms are likely to persist thursday night as a stronger
shortwave trough finally crosses northern ohio. showers with
scattered thunderstorms may linger into friday but will become
focused across northwest ohio by saturday as the overall
longwave pattern transitions to northwest flow with a trough
over new england.

key message 2...

temperatures will trend slightly cooler on thursday as the boundary
settles south into the area. the hottest area will be along the i-75
corridor where highs will still be near 90 and heat index values
will reach the upper 90s. given the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms along with partly cloudy skies, a heat advisory is
not planned for thursday. this could change overnight if chances of
precipitation trend lower in the west or if more sun is expected.
will see how the convection plays out first before deciding if
we need to an advisory for a few more counties.

key message 3... high pressure will build south out of canada on
saturday and bring cooler and drier conditions through the holiday
weekend. high temperatures will return to near normal values in the
upper 70s to near 80. dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will
bring lower humidity. a lower chance of precipitation will continue
along the i-75 corridor on saturday with dry conditions in the
forecast sunday through tuesday.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
a broken line of storms over the central and eastern basin of
lake erie is expected to track southeast mainly affecting keri
from 00z to 02z. will maintain a tempo group tsra with gust up
to 28 knots. mesoscale models continua to show another round of
storms tracking across ne ohio and nw pennsylvania 07z to
11z...affecting keri, kcle, kcak and kyng. will insert a tempo
group at keri and vcts for kcle, kcak, and kyng due to less
confidence with convection developing farther west overnight.
thus no vcts for ktol, kfdy, and kmfd overnight. ifr conditions
will occur at taf sites with storms. otherwise, vfr conditions
are expected through 00z friday.

outlook... non-vfr possible in shower and storm activity
through thursday night.


outlook... non-vfr possible in shower and storm activity through
thursday night.

&&

.marine...
the main marine concern over the next 36 hours will be several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the lake with the
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. for
broader conditions outside of the storms, the lake is ahead of a
cold front this afternoon and will have southerly flow until the
cold front passes on thursday evening. some ridging will build
from the north for friday and into the weekend and allow for
some elevated north to northeast flow. this flow could allow for
waves in the 2 to 3 ft range over the weekend, which would be a
problem for some moderate swimming risk for the western and
central basin beaches.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...fz
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
986
fxus63 kiwx 022213
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
613 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

.key messages...

- heat and humidity continue through thursday with peak heat indices
around 100 degrees, especially along and south of us 30.

- 20-30% chances of thunderstorms thursday, beginning prior to
daybreak mainly north of i-80/i-90 then expanding area-wide
by the afternoon and evening. storms may produce damaging
winds. low confidence at this time.

- 30-60% chances for showers and storms area-wide late thursday
evening into friday morning.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 110 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

heat and humidity persist today with high temperatures expected to
be in the upper 80s to low 90s. the upper level ridge is directly
over the great lakes with a large area of surface high pressure
anchored over the southeastern conus. ample waa will continue to
boost temperatures well above average for early september. increased
moisture return stemming from the gulf will also allow for dewpoints
in the mid 70s to continue. the heat advisory continues for the
entire forecast area until 8 pm edt; it has been extended to last
until 8 pm edt thursday for counties along and south of us 30 in
indiana and ohio. confidence is growing that heat indices will be at
or slightly above 100 degrees tomorrow in the vicinity of the us 30
corridor, where there are lower chances for convection and/or
clouds. we should stay mainly dry today; originally there was a low
chance for a stray storm but given that an outflow morning from
remnant morning upstream convection is already coming through and
there is a downward trend on visible satellite imagery for cloud
cover, have opted to keep the area dry today and tonight.

as the upper level ridge begins to flatten, our lower michigan
counties may be on the periphery. have maintained 15-20% chances for
isolated convection between 06-18z mainly north of i-80/i-90, with
broader 15-20% expanding into the entire area after 18z thursday
in line with the 12z suite of cams. thursday`s pops are highly
conditional depending on where/if any outflows or shortwaves
setup. depending on how much the ridge flattens and where the
best convective environment sets up, our area may see an active
pattern to end the week into the weekend ahead. hi- res and
medium range guidance suggests one or multiple mcss could move
through the area late thursday night through saturday. model
guidance continues to be all over the place in regards to timing
and exact location of storms thursday through the weekend,
however, in general, our hot and humid environment overhead will
be supportive for convection. we should have ample instability
and moisture to work with but other elements such as shear
remain in question due to considerable uncertainty on how the
larger synoptic evolution.

as mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a large spread on
the long range temperatures and evolution of the upper level ridge.
while the nbm has highs near 80 by late in the weekend into early
next week, there is still about a 10 degree spread in guidance
ranging from 75-85 degrees for highs. with troughing expected to
setup over the western conus, the upper level ridge may briefly
diminish over the weekend and then build back into the area early
into the middle of next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 612 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

vfr conditions and southwest winds generally in the 5-10 kt
range will generally persist through the taf cycle. will have
monitor convective trends later tonight into tomorrow as some
elevated convection could briefly sneak into northern in.
however, point chances remain too low (5-20%) for a mention in
the taf at this time.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-103-104-203-204.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ thursday for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt thursday for ohz015-016-024-025.
mi...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
403
fxus63 kdtx 022352
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
752 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

.key messages...

- a slight risk for severe storms continues this evening. damaging
winds to 70 mph, hail to 1.5 inch, and an isolated tornado threat
are all possible.

- additional shower and thunderstorm chances thursday and friday.
heavy rainfall is possible.

&&

.aviation...

afternoon thunderstorms focused along the front stalled across
central lower mi with additional development along the subsequent
outflow from m-46 toward i-69. concern for storms toward dtw was
tied to deeper cumulus development which has failed to break through
the cap edge and have been decreasing in satellite observations
leading up to forecast issuance. hot and humid air extends the
effect of peak heating by a few hours this evening, leading to a few
more storms from ptk into the thumb again, but a general diminishing
trend is expected overhead while monitoring additional storms
farther west that have chance to move in later tonight and thursday
morning. evening observations will be used to add timing and location
refinements in later updates.

d21/dtw convection... there is a chance for another round of
thunderstorms late tonight and thursday morning, then again
thursday afternoon and evening. the best chance for storms is north
of dtw toward the northern fringe of d21.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and thursday.

* low for thunderstorms late tonight and thursday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 253 pm edt wed sep 2 2026

discussion...

hot and humid conditions continue through the evening, boosted by
low 70s dewpoints and highs in the low 90s. this has brought peak
heat indices across the detroit metro region into the low 100s which
will linger through early evening, which has also established a
robust pool of instability across all of se michigan. question
remains how strong the cap is, which has limited convection from
fully blossoming in an otherwise favorable thermodynamic
environment. observational cues show this cap eroding across the
saginaw valley region and other boundaries outside of the cwa, while
inbound moisture suggests further erosion this evening.

swody1 slight risk thus persists given the conditionally favorable
severe environment. bulk parameters are impressive, as spc
mesoanalysis reports sbcape up to 4000 j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
over 40 knots due to a mid-level jet impulse aloft (h5 winds of 50-
55 knots). this should be supportive of organized multicellular
and/or supercellular structures as shear vectors are oriented ~45
degrees to the initiating boundaries. low confidence however exists
in the initial development of storms and subsequent
coverage/evolution as there will be multiple weak forcing mechanisms
in play. thus, a wide spectrum of outcomes expected across se
michigan, with the most bullish scenarios producing damaging winds
to 70 mph and hail over 1.5". these solutions carry higher
confidence for the saginaw valley/thumb than the metro detroit
region. while low level curvature is not prevalent attm, lake
breezes/ storm outflow could locally augment hodographs to support
an isolated tornado threat as well. progressive storm motion
generally limits long duration rainfall concerns this evening,
although heavy downpours are likely.

episodes of showers and thunderstorms then continue overnight
through the end of the work week, with low predictability in timing
and coverage. the unsettled pattern will be supported by a
baroclinic axis that lingers over se michigan over the next several
days, keeping plenty of instability around within a seasonably
hot/humid airmass. highs thursday again approach 90 degrees with
heat indices pushing well into the 90s to near 100 degree readings
in urban areas, depending on cloud cover/convective coverage. much
of our shower/thunderstorm chances will be determined by upstream
mcs development and the propagation of these systems into se
michigan as ridging builds over central conus. most likely cadence
for these storms (based on pattern recognition) is a wave of
nocturnal/early morning convection followed by reinvigoration of
storms later in the day with the peak heating cycle that repeats
until the front fully clears south of the state line this weekend.

the building ridge causes mid-level winds to veer from west to
northwest by end of week, drawing in cooler air that alters both low
and mid-level thermal profiles. ultimately this causes the severe
threat to decrease friday-the weekend, despite shower and storm
chances remaining in the forecast. a cooler pattern is expected this
weekend, with highs falling into the upper 70s.

marine...

winds and waves remain below threshold criteria across the central
great lakes, aside from a few thunderstorms passing through a very
muggy air mass this afternoon and evening. gradient winds will shift
from southwest to northwest once a weak cold front drops
southeastward through region. convective chances decrease a bit
overnight within the wake of the slowing front, and winds could
briefly trend towards calm. a low confidence forecast persist
through the end of the week and early this weekend as a ridge over
central conus remains quasi-stationary. this offers several
additional opportunities for periods of showers and thunderstorms.
mws and smw headlines will continued to be used to address short-
term local watercraft concerns. no long-fused headline concerns
through the weekend, although areas of dense fog could become an
issue again late tonight into thursday morning for portions of the
waterways.

hydrology...

first round of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across the
saginaw valley and thumb regions, with chances continuing overnight.
the hot and humid airmass will support heavy downpours within most
thunderstorms, although progressive nature of storms limits
duration. any strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce
a quick 1-2 inches of rain, which can lead to localized minor
flooding of roads and poor-drainage areas. there are currently no
indications of training storms, though more extensive flooding would
become a concern if a mature mcs develops or storms repeatedly
impact the same area.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

aviation.....bt
discussion...mv
marine.......kgk
hydrology....mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.