Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
839
fxus61 kcle 071849
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
149 pm est sat feb 7 2026

.what has changed...
a cold weather advisory is now in effect across northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania 10 pm tonight through 10 am sunday. increased
precipitation chances across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through tonight where localized lake enhanced
snowfall continues.

&&

.key messages...
1) remaining frigid with sub-zero wind chills expected both
sunday and monday morning.

2) moderating temperatures with multiple systems moving in the
vicinity of the forecast area next week.

&&

.discussion...
.key message 1...
arctic high pressure, characterized by 850mb temperatures as low
as -20c, remains overhead. this will lead to continued light
winds and strong radiational cooling in areas with limited cloud
cover. slightly warmer but remaining frigid tonight with
overnight lows ranging between 0f to -5f in eastern zones and as
warm as 0 to +10f in western zones. wind chills tonight across
eastern zones will fall as low as -10 to -20f. a cold weather
advisory is now in effect across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania from 10 pm this evening through 10 am sunday
morning.

high temperatures on sunday are expected to range between 10 and
20f with overnight lows falling anywhere between +5 to -10f. wind
chills are expected to fall as low as -10f along and east of
i-77 sunday night into monday morning, but calm winds should
prevent the issuance of any additional cold headlines.

.key message 2...
the general trend through next week is primarily dry weather
with moderating temperatures. the warmest day of the week will
be tuesday as highs are expected to rise into the upper 30s to
lower 40s. high temperatures generally remain in the upper 20s
to lower 30s the rest of next week. will still need to monitor
mainly frozen over rivers for any ice jam development. however,
given the very brief warm period accompanied with little to no
precipitation, not anticipating many issues to arise.

a number of upper level disturbances will cross in the vicinity
of the forecast area mid-to-late next week. however, a
persistent ridge of high pressure across the region will likely
keep precipitation chances out of the forecast area through the
bulk of next week. will continue to monitor the placement of the
eastern conus ridge as any adjustments in its location may allow
for precipitation chances to change.

&&

.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
generally expect vfr across the region through the taf period,
although a narrow band of lake effect snow showers is producing
mvfr cigs/vsbys. expect these snow showers to diminish as high
pressure continues to build into the region this afternoon into
this evening, although light snow may briefly clip keri and
produce a period of mvfr conditions before 00z. winds will be
out of the northwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
(and possibly brief gusts to 30 knots this afternoon) before
becoming light and variable at most locations tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain/snow showers tuesday night
into wednesday.

&&

.marine...
lake erie remains mostly ice-covered. northwest winds 10 to 20
knots will continue through this afternoon before diminishing to
10 knots or less by late tonight and becoming more variable on
sunday. southeast winds around 10 knots or less are expected on
monday with southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots developing on
tuesday. winds will shift to the northwest wednesday through
thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
sunday for ohz012>014-022-023-032-033-089.
pa...cold weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
sunday for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...15
marine...15

Fulton and Henry Counties

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013
fxus63 kiwx 071950
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
250 pm est sat feb 7 2026

.key messages...

- weak clipper system will bring an inch or less of snow late
tonight into sunday morning.

- cold overnight lows, single digits to mid teens for, sunday
and monday morning. weak winds will limit the impacts from the
cold.

- warming trend with near to above normal temperatures beginning
monday through the remainder of the week. highs on tuesday
will warm to around 40 degrees.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 222 pm est sat feb 7 2026

weak clipper system will move through tonight into early sunday
morning bringing another shot of light snow. a more of a f-gen
band set up will bring a fairly narrow band of snow over the
area, some uncertainty to exactly where the band sets up but
either west or east of the band will see minimal amounts if any
snowfall. current thinking is that mainly the western half of
the cwa would be in line for the higher accumulations which will
top at at around an inch to inch and a half. colder air behind
this system will bring cold overnight lows with single digits
for the eastern half of the cwa where better chances for some
clearing of the skies. temps will only drop to right around the
mid teens for the western half with more cloud cover and the warmer
plume from the lake modified airmass. highs on sunday only in
the low to mid 20s within the northwesterly flow behind the
system. similar low temperatures to sunday morning will also be
in place on monday morning.

ridging in place over the western conus will begin to move
eastward and will begin to see synoptic warming arrive which
will allow for a warming trend for the first half of the week.
highs on tuesday will approach the low 40s. of course, some of
the warming will be offset with the snowpack still in place. a
more zonal flow sets up aloft over the region by wednesday into
the end of the week which will allow near to above normal
temperatures remain in place through the work week with highs
mainly in the low to mid 30s. a weak disturbance move through
the region late tuesday into wednesday and could bring a
rain/snow mix as most of the energy skirts to the north of the
area. otherwise, a couple of weak disturbances rippling through
the northern periphery of the zonal flow could bring some light
snow showers for the second half of the week. a few drops of
rain may mix in especially during the daytime but kept just the
mention of snow showers at this time. will evaluate as we get
closer.

another clipper system looks to move through on friday and again
bring another shot of light snowfall.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 1236 pm est sat feb 7 2026

vfr conditions to dominate through at least the first half or so
of the period as nw flow slow weakens and becomes light and
variable in advance of another fast moving wave set to arrive
late tonight. moisture quite limited with this feature, but
enough forcing to warrant at least some mvfr vsbys with lighter
snowshowers. as mentioned in the previous discussion, if flake
size is smaller a great vsby impact could occur than presently
forecasted. the period of light snow appears to be confined to a
3 to 5 hour window with a se wind then dominating thereafter.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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047
fxus63 kdtx 071941
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
241 pm est sat feb 7 2026

.key messages...

- temperatures remain well below average through the remainder of
the weekend. minimum wind chill sunday and monday mornings ranging
between -5 and 5 degrees.

- warming trend expected early next week, with temperatures climbing
above average tuesday.

&&

.discussion...

another bout of high magnitude cold entrenched locally will continue
to mark conditions thru the rest of the weekend. broad area of high
pressure will govern conditions tonight, as a weak mid level wave
embedded within prevailing mid level northwest flow tracks by to the
southwest. favorable underlying environment for radiational cooling
with a weak gradient capitalizing on some periods of open sky. low
temperatures projected to dip into the single digits once again,
netting sub-zero wind chill in the coldest areas. a deep layer of
dry air within general subsidence ensures dry conditions hold to
finish the weekend. modest diurnal temperature recovery expected
sunday as upper heights build, but with low level easterly flow
capping the response. highs again mid teens to lower 20s. one final
night for lows of single digits by monday morning with surface
ridging maintaining influence, assuming coverage of cloud cover
remains low.

a transition in the large scale pattern toward more zonal flow of
pacific origin will effectively dislodge the arctic profile early
next week. initial stages of a more meaningful warming trend will
commence monday, although still capped by a slightly backed, south-
southeast gradient and prospects for higher cloud coverage as the
mid level warm frontal zone works through. highs back into the mid-
upper 20s. weak shortwave energy rolling across the inbound elevated
warm frontal zone may offer a very low probability for light snow
shower/flurry production monday or monday night, but limited
moisture depth or tangible upward vertical motion outside of the
advective process precludes any defined mention at this stage. a
more pronounced window for warm air advection as southwest flow
increases depth occurs monday night into tuesday. this will bring
temperatures to above average levels, with readings peaking in the
35 to 40 degree range.

weak moisture starved cold front arrives late tuesday, effectively
edging temperatures back closer to normal for the latter half of the
week. extended model guidance suggests southeast michigan will
remain north of an active upper jet stream originating out of
southern pacific. this will leave the region void of meaningful
system dynamics with a storm track across the southern conus
favored. as a result, outgoing forecast carries generally dry
conditions through the end of the forecast period, with temperatures
edged slightly on the colder side of mid february norms.

&&

.marine...

high pressure settles into the ohio valley for the weekend.
northwest flow relaxes today as the gradient weakens, with a gradual
shift to southeast flow by sunday evening. winds and waves remain
comfortably below headline thresholds through tuesday until the next
low tracks across ontario tuesday night into wednesday. another
strong arctic front settles across lower michigan during this
timeframe, increasing winds and gust potential to 30 knots or
greater. otherwise, periods of snow will be possible monday through
wednesday especially across northern portions of lake huron.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 101 pm est sat feb 7 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions across the region as high pressure continues to push
eastward into the state. the northwesterly flow has been gusting to
around 20 knots but should decrease through the afternoon as the
pressure gradient relaxes. the high will pass overhead tonight into
sunday leading to light and variable winds. dry air feeding into the
region has lead to a reduced footprint of lake effect clouds today
with few-sct around 3500ft with any thicker clouds hold to the west.
system will dive south and west of the area tonight which will
spread high clouds back over the area which will persist into
sunday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through the forecast.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......mv
aviation.....drk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.