Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
748
fxus61 kcle 240716
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
316 am edt fri jul 24 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.key messages...
1) mainly dry conditions will continue through saturday.

2) shower and thunderstorm chances return sunday through
tuesday. strong to severe storms are possible, mainly on
monday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure continues to influence the region through saturday
with seasonable temperatures expected. a shortwave aloft will swing
east across the upper ohio valley during the afternoon and evening
hours today. the majority of the area should remain dry but have
introduced low-end rain chances along and south of us-30 later today
for any isolated showers that may develop. isolated showers and
storms are expected along and east of i-77 saturday morning and
afternoon as mid-level moisture increases.

high temperatures will rise into the low 80s today and saturday.
overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight with warmer
lows in the mid 60s saturday night.

key message 2...
active weather is expected to return early next week as a ridge over
the western united states builds and allows for a trough to dig
south across the the great lakes region. surface low pressure will
usher in a strong llj over a moist airmass with dew points in the
upper 60s. this will increase the potential for clusters of
thunderstorms. strong to severe storms remain possible, particularly
on monday, as highlighted by the spc severe risk area. shower and
thunderstorm chances linger into mid-week as the aforementioned low
pushes east across the lower great lakes. a fair amount of
uncertainty remains in timing, coverage, and intensity of storms
given the conditional nature of this setup.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
vfr. winds ene today 10kts or less at the surface. robust
cumulus field expected with bkn ceiling fl045 inland including
cle. eri likely clear or cirrus only. cumulus field dissipates
with evening/sunset.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms sunday through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
northeasterly wind speed increases expected again in the
central basin of lake erie today, kicking up wave heights to
1-2ft in this area, and around a foot for the rest of the
lake. calmer conditions expected saturday with a weaker
pressure gradient, and although slightly offshore fetch is
expected, winds will be less than 10kts and waves around a foot
are expected again. southwesterlies kick in sunday through
monday around 10kts, increasing to 15-20kts ahead of a cold
front tuesday morning when onshore northwesterly winds are
expected through tuesday 10-20kts.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...26
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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811
fxus63 kiwx 240539
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
139 am edt fri jul 24 2026

.key messages...

- gradually warmer over the next several days. hot and humid with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by sunday and monday.

- primarily dry this weekend but there are 20-30% chances for rain
and storms sunday evening into sunday night.

- several rounds of rain and storms possible late sunday through
early tuesday. severe weather is possible but low confidence
at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 137 am edt fri jul 24 2026

satellite imagery and recent surface observations show high clouds
drifting in from the west as high pressure remains overhead. it is
not out the question that sprinkles could occur today (mainly this
morning and afternoon) as more clouds advect in, but the overall
trend continues to be dry and gradually warmer through at least the
first half of the weekend as the airmass overhead moderates. highs
will be in the upper 70s area-wide today with low humidity. winds
shift to become southwesterly on saturday with waa starting to ramp
up. saturday will be slightly warmer and a bit humid with highs in
the low to mid 80s and dewpoints around 60 degrees.

hot and humid by sunday and monday with increasing chances for rain
and storms. dewpoints continue to climb sunday and monday into the
low to mid 70s with west/southwest flow at the surface. increased
evapotranspiration from crops may also aid in locally higher
dewpoints. high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s
both days with continued waa ahead of a cold front that comes
through late monday/early tuesday. our forecast area will be on the
fringes of a large upper level ridge over the central conus. this is
a favorable summertime set up for a potentially active pattern into
early next week with northwest flow aloft. guidance is trending
towards our forecast area being in the `ring of fire` with the large
upper level ridge centered over the central conus and repeated
complexes of storms (mcss) that ride the periphery of the ridge.
considerable uncertainty remains this far out on timing, track, and
intensity of storms, so confidence is low. a pattern like this is
very difficult to forecast for more than 24 hours out, as it takes
knowing when and where an mcs will develop to understand how it may
evolve and where it will track. several rounds of thunderstorms may
occur sunday evening through monday, but exact details are sparse
and subject to change. sunday is trending mainly dry at this time,
with 20-30% chances for storms late in the evening. the better
chances arrive monday afternoon and evening ahead of and along the
approaching cold front. i can`t rule out isolated strong to severe
storms sunday evening, but the better chances and more favorable
environment for severe weather appears to be monday.

our entire forecast area is included in the 15% severe
risk by spc on monday, july 27th. the gfs and ecmwf are in alignment
on a favorable synoptic setup with northwest flow aloft and an
increasing llj on monday. a series of 500 mb shortwaves will
move through monday, providing sufficient lift for storm
development in conjunction with the cold front. shear and
instability remain the key ingredients i have the least
confidence in this far out; with how hot and humid it will be, i
would not be surprised if instability reaches 3000-4000 j/kg
sbcape on sunday and monday. bulk shear appears to be decent
too on monday at around 30 to 40 kts. uncertainty remains in
exact timing, coverage, and intensity of storms. given the
highly conditional setup, confidence remains low overall.

tuesday`s weather is uncertain, as it will depend on what happens
late sunday and monday. ensemble guidance favors dry and seasonable
conditions with high pressure building once again over the great
lakes. for now, will stick with dry conditions and highs in the mid
80s.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1248 am edt fri jul 24 2026

high pressure overhead continues to keep conditions dry.
satellite imagery and observations show high level clouds moving
in. skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today, but vfr
ceilings are expected to prevail. winds will be light and
variable through this afternoon and evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 240733
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
333 am edt fri jul 24 2026

.key messages...

- dry conditions with near normal temperatures are expected through
saturday.

- heat and humidity build back into the region sunday-monday with
highs around 90 degrees and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

- isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible sunday, with a
more organized strong to severe weather threat looking to arrive
monday.

&&

.discussion...

longwave troughing pattern holds in place this morning over eastern
conus, with an embedded shortwave racing across the central plains.
high based cirrus associated with this wave and convective cloud
debris clip the southern great lakes, but otherwise surface high
pressure successfully keeps moisture well to our south to support
plenty of sunshine and dry weather. the complementary thermal trough
keeps highs a few degrees cooler than normal today--in the low 80s,
with a couple degree boost into the mid-80s saturday.

dry conditions persist saturday, but with a pattern shift on its way
as winds organize out of the southwest during the day. aloft, mid-
level heights rise modestly in response to ridge amplification over
western conus and the southern push of a strengthening hudson bay
low. this draws the theta-e gradient east, folding instability into
the saginaw valley and thumb region early sunday morning which
expands south and east through the day. multiple waves ripple around
the ridge sunday, attempting to engage the destabilizing airmass and
generate showers and thunderstorms. timing of these waves is still
uncertain, although the latest 00z/06z guidance favors a round of
morning convection and a second round of convection around peak
heating. opted for more bullish pops across the saginaw valley/thumb
sunday morning given the strong synoptic support as the left exit
region of an ~85 knot jet clips atop the building instability.
mucape will still be ramping up though, so only advertising a slight
chance of thunder with this activity. lingering dry air and/or
subsidence from prior convection will then be hurdles to overcome
sunday afternoon, both of which could stall the eastward progress of
moisture and instability. that said, if deep convection can develop
in this environment, storms may become organized given the strong
shear profiles (35-40 knots 0-6 km bulk shear). this is supported by
the latest swody3 marginal risk and csu machine learning
probabilities.

thunderstorm chances continue sunday night through early next week
as se michigan remains on the edge of the instability gradient under
an active northwesterly jet and wave train. best opportunity for
organized severe weather comes sometime early next week as the low
currently off the coast of the pacific northwest releases east
around the ridge and induces cyclogenesis. majority of deterministic
models and ensemble members bring this wave to the great lakes
region monday night, although a smaller subset delays that until
tuesday. the strong synoptic signal in the guidance leans toward
organized severe weather potential.

outside of thunderstorm chances, the upstream ridge sends heat and
humidity into se michigan beginning sunday and lasting until the
synoptic cold front comes through mid-week. forecast highs in the
upper 80s-low 90s carry low confidence given the thunderstorm
potential and cloud debris. heat indices in the mid-90s will be
attainable if a drier outcome materializes.

&&

.marine...

winds will be light southerly today as high pressure residing over
the mid atlantic states stills exerts it influence. a surface trough
slowly passing through during the weekend will bring a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms, though winds are expected to
remain light.

the next notable storm system arrives on monday, as low pressure
tracks across the northern great lakes. strong thunderstorms are
possible as the cold front works through the central great lakes
during the evening hours. northerly winds behind this system late
monday night into tuesday have the potential to reach 25 knots over
southern lake huron.

&&

.hydrology...

several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible sunday into
early next week. an increasingly humid and unstable airmass will
lead to rainfall rates over an inch per hour in some thunderstorms.
recent dry weather and low soil saturation will help mitigate
widespread flooding concerns, although localized flash flooding of
low-lying, urban, and other flood-prone areas remains possible if
thunderstorms repeatedly impact the same locations.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1157 pm edt thu jul 23 2026

aviation...

vfr under streamers of cirrus with light and variable wind are
provided for se mi by an expanse of high pressure covering the
southern great lakes. these conditions last through the morning
followed by scattered fair weather cumulus and more of an broken
opaque cirrus in the afternoon. light and variable wind becomes more
consistently se into friday evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms forecast.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...mv
marine.......sf
hydrology....mv
aviation.....bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.