Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
722 am edt fri may 1 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes were needed with this forecast update.

&&

.key messages...
1) the cold has arrived and will stick around through saturday
night. multiple periods of frost/freeze are likely.

2) light showers will push east across the area today, bringing
another day of dreary conditions. a few wet flakes are possible, but
not expected to stick.

3) near normal temperatures return next week with an active pattern
bringing the chance of multiple rounds of showers and storms to the
area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
temperatures this morning have dropping into the mid to upper 30s
across far neoh and nwpa with low to mid 40s being observed
elsewhere. unfortunately, overnight lows tonight and saturday night
are expected to be even colder with lows dropping into the low to
mid 30s areawide. some areas, especially in valleys, may even fall
into the upper 20s. these temperatures will likely pose a risk of
frost/freeze areawide both nights. there is a bit of uncertainty is
how cold temperatures get given the expected cloud cover and
possible impacts to radiational cooling, especially tonight.
expected temperatures to be the coldest in areas where there are
observed breaks in the clouds. saturday night is forecast to be less
cloudy as high pressure become dominant across the area, so expect
the coldest temperatures that night. additional frost/freeze
headlines will be issued in the coming shifts given the fact that
there is currently a frost advisory for nwpa this morning.

key message 2...
a very weak low pressure system has begun to traverse the area this
morning, allowing for light rain showers to begin across far nwoh.
these showers are expected to continue to push east through the
afternoon, resulting in another dreary day. overall rainfall totals
should remain less than 0.25" keeping any impacts to a minimum.
given the well below normal temperatures this morning, would not be
shocked to see a few wet flakes mix in with the rain showers, but
these are not expected to be widespread or accumulate at all. given
the weak support and little to no instability today, have opted to
remove the mention of thunder from the forecast. as the low departs
east this evening, showers should taper west to east.

key message 3...
on sunday, temperatures will slowly begin to rebound with highs
climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. late sunday, a warm front is
expected to push north across the area as a surface low deepens over
southern ontario. behind this boundary, a transition back towards
spring-like weather will occur with mild overnight temperatures
sunday night and near normal highs expected monday through midweek.
late monday into tuesday, an amplified ridge to the south will merge
with a trough to the north, amplifying synoptic features including a
vort max and upper level jet across the ohio river valley. this
robust system will aid in supporting multiple rounds of showers and
storms through mid-week. the initial round expected will be monday
into tuesday as a cold front pushes east in conjunction with a
shortwave. another shortwave traverses the area late tuesday into
wednesday, bringing another cold front east. both rounds of weather
have the potential to have thunder associated with them, however
will have to keep an eye on any severe potential as the current
timing seems to occur during a diurnally unfavorable time. the
aforementioned upper level trough may have additional embedded
shortwaves move along it and impact the area later in the week,
however divergence in timing and location amongst models this far
out leaves little to no confidence in those additional chances.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
mixed-bag of vfr, mvfr, and pockets of ifr across the taf sites this
morning, associated with approaching rain and lower ceilings.
further deterioration to widespread mvfr and ifr conditions is
expected through this morning and into the afternoon from west
to east across the area. brief lifr conditions cannot be ruled
out at mfd/cle/eri following the rain this afternoon with
pockets of mist/fog possible. conditions should improve to low-
end vfr by late afternoon and evening. another area of low
ceilings and vsbys with rain showers is possible overnight,
mainly impacting cle/mfd/cak.

winds are generally light with varying directions this morning,
5 knots or less. winds will gradually favor a north to northwest
direction by late morning and afternoon, increasing to 8 to 10
knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms late monday through tuesday.

&&

.marine...
generally quiet marine conditions are favored through the
weekend with no headlines expected. slightly stronger offshore,
southwest flow of 15 to 20 knots will arrive on monday into
tuesday ahead of a cold front. a small craft advisory could be
possible if winds trend stronger. otherwise, generally light
onshore flow of 10 knots or less is favored through saturday,
increasing slightly in the 10 to 15 knot range and becoming
southwest by late sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for paz002-003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...04
aviation...kahn
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
544 am edt fri may 1 2026

.key messages...

- rain showers taper off this morning, though a few isolated showers
may redevelop this afternoon.

- a freeze watch is now in effect for early saturday morning.

- additional frost/freeze conditions possible early sunday as well
before warmer temperatures arrive sunday into monday.

- opportunities for showers and storms return early next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 312 am edt fri may 1 2026

forecast generally on track this morning with minor adjustments to
hourly pops/qpf/temps as a small scale, yet potent shortwave, and
corridor of low-mid level fgen swings through with rain tapering off
from west to east through midday. some renewed, more isolated,
shower activity remains possible this afternoon along and east of
the interstate 69 corridor in the vicinity of a lingering inverted
trough. cool otherwise to start the month of may with highs
generally near 50 degrees.

attention tonight into early saturday will turn to frost/freeze
concerns as low level ridging builds in under elongated troughing
aloft. winds diminish and skies likely do as well with the lake
shadow working well inland. some concern on the edges of this for
stratocu to linger in west-central in and northwest oh which could
limit the frost/freeze potential. this could make for a lower end
frost/freeze event here, with better prospects for 28-32f temps
early saturday into much of northern in and southern lower mi.

another opportunity for frost saturday night will be followed by a
welcomed warming trend into sunday-sunday night as heights relax and
warm advection ensues in return low level southwest flow. a low
amplitude impulse in this waa regime may allow for showers to clip
northern zones later sunday into sunday night where a low pop (20-
30%) was retained.

pattern continues to look periodically active and milder into the
fist half of next week as an upper level trough digs into the north-
central us monday, eventually releasing east through the great lakes
and ohio valley into tuesday-wednesday per a model consensus. enough
gulf and pacific moisture likely proceeds an associated frontal
boundary later monday into monday night with the best opportunity
for convection, potentially strong-to-severe if enough pre-frontal
heating and forcing is realized. additional rain chances then
follow through mid week as frontal sfc waves take aim on the
area.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 544 am edt fri may 1 2026

potent upper level impulse and associated low level reflection
will continue to generate periods of rain and ifr to low mvfr
cigs at kfwa through much of the morning, while improvement to
high mvfr to low vfr conditions already being seen at ksbn.
improvement back into vfr and mainly dry conditions at both
sites by this afternoon with diurnally driven showers possible
near a leftover inverted trough. point chances (20%) remain too
low for a shower mention however. northwest winds possibly gust
15-20 knots at times this afternoon, becoming light/variable
tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...freeze watch from late tonight through saturday morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...freeze watch from late tonight through saturday morning for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...freeze watch from late tonight through saturday morning for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
628 am edt fri may 1 2026

.key messages...

- light rain south of i-96/i-696 tapers off later this morning.

- a frost advisory for part of southeast michigan expires at 8 am.

- scattered rain showers are possible this afternoon.

- a freeze watch remains in effect for all of southeast michigan
tonight.

- drier conditions expected saturday and early sunday before rain
and thunderstorm chances rise early next week.

&&

.aviation...

a weak mid level short wave and associated area of surface low
pressure will move across northern ohio this morning. the northern
edge of the rain will generally exit southeast of metro detroit
around 12z. remnant low level moisture may support some residual
mvfr based clouds around detroit, especially as diurnal heating gets
underway. the low levels will remain a little drier from ptk north
and thus the mvfr probabilities are low. model soundings do indicate
that the seasonally cold air aloft and diurnal heating will
contribute to an expansive vfr based diurnal cu this afternoon and
evening. convective cloud depths will be enough to support scattered
showers, mainly late this afternoon and evening.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through this taf
period.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today, moderate tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 321 am edt fri may 1 2026

discussion...

the merger of the northern and southern stream waves has supported
an expansive jet streak, occupying a significant portion of eastern
conus. southeast michigan resides along the northern fringe of the
longwave feature as a mid-/upper-level low slows over central
ontario, deflecting against northward progress of the composite
wave. however, perturbed flow aloft sustains a series of shortwave
ejections over the great lakes during the next 48 hours. the initial
trough is currently transiting northern indiana/ohio, shoving its
surface reflection eastward toward the southern lake erie shoreline.
early morning radar and surface observations reveal a weak
precipitation response from the vicinity disturbance, largely
inhibited by a lack of deep-layer moisture as evidenced by the
01.00z kdtx raob. showers should continue for several more hours,
predominantly south of the i-96/i-696 corridor, until about 15z. for
the rest of today, a lobe of vorticity extending from the resident
closed low offers a boost to ascent, and an opportunity for
scattered narrow-diameter showers. forecast soundings identify
surface-based mixing depths maximizing some 8-10 kft agl this
afternoon, extending into the dgz. hydrometeor paths face warm and
dry air within the final third of descent. this suggests melting and
evaporation concerns, which should limit qpf and afford areas of
virga. showers wane in the absence of a diurnal boundary-layer.

the current configuration reinforces lower column nnw flow with
thermal troughing sending 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -3c
to -7c range tonight. regarding the freeze watch, uncertainty
regarding cloud trends precludes any upgrades to the inherited
watch. the latest model data indicates areas to the north/west face
a higher likelihood to experience sufficient clearing and subsequent
longwave cooling. additionally, gradient winds appear to trend
toward calm soon for western locations given the emergence of
surface ridging from the upper midwest.

whether or not freeze criteria is reached, saturday will get off to
a chilly start, by early may standards. temperatures at sunrise will
be in the 30s for most locations, or 10f to 15f below normal. a
mostly dry day is forecast as the next round of cva moves overhead
with limited fanfare. pwats decrease, dropping below 0.30 inches,
with just a 2-4 kft saturated layer, centered near 7 kft agl. a few
isolated showers/sprinkles are possible during peak heating, but
profiles look too lean (excluding the operational gfs) to include
even slight chance pop adjustments. high pressure builds across lake
michigan during the day, followed by height rises aloft.
temperatures recover into the low 50s, boosted by a rising sun angle
while rather light gradient flow holds from the northwest.

mid-level winds back zonally on sunday with an uptick in thetae
while surface winds flip southwesterly. surface ridging centers much
further south, well into the southeast as a more active period gets
underway across michigan. confluent low-level flow leads to breezy
and possibly some showery conditions. a progressive alaskan wave
descends on the region monday producing a deepening surface low, to
982 mb. an elongated cold front extends from central ontario into
the southern plains which will focus a large swath of showers and
thunderstorms monday night into tuesday. pre-frontal warm sector
brings a brief reprieve from seasonably cooler weather. timing of
the evolution of these features leaves many questions as to how
active the mid-week time-frame will become.

marine...

a slow moving upper-level low pressure system will continue to
impact the great lakes through the end of the week. this will bring
periodic rain shower along with lighter winds given the diffuse
pressure gradient. wind direction holds from the north to northwest
through the end of the week with localized higher winds speeds found
along northern lake huron, with gust potential up to around 20 knots.
wind direction back to the southwest sunday and holds through early
next week as a warm front passes through the great lakes. things
brings additional chances for rain showers and a low chance for an
embedded thunderstorm.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for miz047>049-053>055-
061>063-069-070.

freeze watch from late tonight through saturday morning for
miz047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...kgk
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.