Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
081
fxus61 kcle 242318
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
718 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.key messages...
1) a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tonight through friday night with a chance for a few strong storms
east of i-71 thursday 1 - 8 pm.

2) heat and humidity returns next week with heat indices possibly
exceeding 100 degrees, especially in northwest ohio.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure moves into the great lakes region
tonight with residual convection moving in from the northwest late
tonight through thursday morning. this will mainly be rain showers
with a few embedded storms.

additional convection will develop thursday afternoon, mainly east
of i-71. sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will be present
for marginally organized convection during the afternoon with a few
strong to severe storms. severity will likely depend on prevalence
of morning convection.

another low moves up from the southwest, with an additional round of
showers and thunderstorms friday through saturday morning. model
guidance has trended later with precipitation onset on friday, and
there is a chance that most of friday is dry. precipitation is most
likely for southern counties.

key message 2...
an upper-level ridge builds into the eastern conus, with heat
and humidity building into the local region next week. the
latest nbm has tuesday and wednesday as the hottest days of the
week with >50% probability of 90 degrees and heat indices > 100
degrees. there are very low probabilities of thunderstorms each
day (around 10- 30%), greater towards the east and best chance
is on wednesday.

&&

.aviation /00z thursday through monday/...
multiple rounds of showers are likely across the area through
the taf period. light rain will move east across the area late
tonight into early thursday morning, although it appears that
the best opportunity for non-vfr (most likely mvfr) conditions
will be at ktol between roughly 03z and 07z. most of the showers
will exit to the east by late morning thursday, although
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop
near kcle/kmfd during the afternoon and move east into early
evening. confidence in the placement/coverage/timing of
showers/storms is low for thursday afternoon so opted for vcsh
with prob30 groups and will make adjustments as confidence
increases in subsequent updates. any storms thursday could
produce non-vfr conditions and gusty winds, best chance from
kcak to kyng and locations southeast.

light winds are expected tonight with south/southwest winds to 6
to 12 knots and gusts up to 20 knots expected during the day
thursday. winds at western terminals will likely become a bit
more westerly by late afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in lingering showers early thursday
night, mainly at kcak/kyng. non-vfr possible again in showers
and thunderstorms friday afternoon and evening, mainly south of
the i-90 corridor.

&&

.marine...
with the exception of some stronger wind gusts associated with
thunderstorms thursday afternoon and evening, particularly across
the eastern basin of lake erie, generally quiet marine conditions
are expected through the weekend. winds will shift towards the south
to southwest on thursday, 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to
northeast behind a cold front on friday into saturday, 10 to 15
knots. onshore, northeast flow will then continue through sunday,
around 10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...saunders
aviation...15
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
307
fxus63 kiwx 242331
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
731 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

.key messages...

- there are chances (60-80 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight. a few strong-severe storms
are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly
along/west of in-15. large hail and damaging winds would be
the primary threat with these storms. a tornado cannot be
ruled out. confidence is low.

- rain and isolated t-storm chances persist on and off through
mid-late week, especially along and south of us 30 thu pm
into sat am. highs will be in the 70s and low 80s.

- high temperatures will climb into the mid-upper 80s sunday and
low-mid 90s monday into wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

a weak shortwave out ahead of a broad upper level trough led to
showers in the far northwest this morning into the early-mid
afternoon. the upper level trough swings through later this
afternoon into the overnight hours, bringing better potential for
showers and isolated storms (especially this evening). spc clips our
western forecast area in a marginal risk for strong-severe storms
along/ahead of the cold front (slight risk near la porte/starke,
counties, in). in this area we will have some available sfc
instability (500-1500 j/kg) and around 30-40kts of bulk effective
shear. the mid level lapse rates are fairly paltry--so i suspect
this may keep our storms limited (around 5.5-6 c/km). cloud cover
and rain showers may also limit our ability to heat up in the north
and west, so we`ll see how much we can recover in terms of surface
instability later.

if we do get strong-severe storms it will be towards the late
afternoon/evening hours, probably 6-11 pm edt. storms should weaken
as they move eastward and we lose our daytime heating instability.
if any storms do become severe, damaging winds and large hail are
the primary threats. if storms can become more supercellular further
west and move into our area, we do have a 2% tornado risk (15-20kts
of 0-1km shear)...but confidence in this is pretty low. otherwise,
expect rain showers and variable cloud cover into tonight with lows
in the upper 50s, low 60s.

chances (20-30 percent) for showers and isolated storms continue
into thursday, mainly along and south of us 30 in the
afternoon/early evening hours. severe weather is not expected at
this time. highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.

another trough and surface low pressure system cross the area on
late thu pm into saturday am, with the best chances for
precipitation and thunderstorms along/south of us 30 (60-80
percent). elsewhere, expect around 20-50 percent chances. highs will
be in the mid-upper 70s, low 80s.

an upper level ridge builds in for saturday into early next week,
bringing high temps into the mid-upper 80s, low-mid 90s (esp.
tue/wed). there are some low-end chances for showers and storms in
this period (20-30 percent)-especially late sat pm-sun am.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 730 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

as a low pressure system swings into lower mi over night, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be possible. this evening an area
of strong to severe weather exists over southern wi, however, light
to moderate rain across the area this evening could be enough to
keep instability at bay and restrict chances for severe weather. the
nam appears to keep the better instability south of sbn this
evening, but there is some chance of between 250 to 750 j/kg of
instability around the area during the overnight to keep
thunderstorm chances in the forecast. with that in mind, will allow
for mvfr conditions with the arrival of those showers and storms.
fwa will probably have a harder time of coming by some stronger
storms, but at least general thunderstorms will still be possible at
fwa by midnight at the earliest. additionally, stratus begins to
take shape as a cold front arrives, providing low mvfr and
potentially ifr conditions after 5z tonight mainly at sbn.

otherwise, southeast winds veering westerly during the overnight and
into thursday. gusts reaching 15-20 kts will be possible midday into
the afternoon hours at both sites, but fwa has the greater chance
with earlier mixing times and the low level jet being closer.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown/mcd
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
921
fxus63 kdtx 242324
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
724 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

.key messages...

- showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight.

- thunderstorms potential again tomorrow afternoon, with a low-end
chance for isolated damaging wind gusts.

- mostly dry friday with low chance for showers south of the i-94
corridor.

- warming temperatures this weekend, followed by much warmer and
more humid conditions early through mid next week with periods of
storms.

&&

.aviation...

early evening showers have largely fizzled out with only pockets of
drizzle/light rain lingering around the detroit terminals to start
the new forecast period. additional shower chances late
evening/early tonight are tied to ongoing convection over wi however
the overnight timing limits available instability and will lead to a
weakening trend as they cross southern lower mi. best potential for
modest showers (mvfr vsbys) are favored from ptk south with spottier
coverage to the north.

parent low reaches central lower mi early thursday morning drawing
in richer lower level moisture supporting to lowering ceilings into
mvfr in the south and ifr in the north by daybreak. some scattered
showers (perhaps an isolated thunderstorm) look to develop on the
nose of this moisture after sunrise, however positioning by that
time is just east of the terminal corridor so have only included a
prob30 rain mention for det. clouds begin to scatter south to north
thursday afternoon as drier air fills in.

d21/dtw convection...thunderstorm activity currently over wisconsin
is set to reach dtw around/after 03z tonight looks to be the best
opportunity for thunder chances, although still low (about 30%).

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft late this evening, high
tonight into thursday morning.

* low for thunderstorms between roughly 03z and 07z tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 346 pm edt wed jun 24 2026

discussion...

a low pressure system is moving across the western great lakes
states this afternoon. ahead of the low is a thetae ridge with gulf
moisture supporting an area of precipitation moving into southeast
michigan at press time. local environment remains limited in regards
to instability and steeper lapse rates, which keeps thunderstorm
potential low this afternoon. rain and thunderstorm chances continue
into tonight as the surface low moves through with associated frontal
zone. expectation is for coverage to be more focused along the warm
frontal boundary as it lifts across southeast michigan throughout the
tonight period. the greater coverage potentially focused more south
of m-59 early this evening then becoming more focused north of m-59
late tonight. slightly greater instability is drawn into the area
overnight tonight as well, which will continue to support the general
thunderstorm potential. the better severe weather potential looks to
stay to the west across southwest lower michigan and north/northwest
indiana. while pwats are expected to climb above 1.00 inches this
afternoon, overall forcing remains weak enough to keep any heavy
rainfall potential pretty limited. this in turn should tame the
hourly and 3 hourly qpf rates.

the weak low pressure system lingers over michigan tomorrow along
with moderate instability and cape depth available. tall/skinny cape
profiles with better shear available will support a low end
potential for marginally severe winds with any of the stronger
updrafts that are able to develop tomorrow afternoon. the sustained
west-southwest flow will usher in a warmer airmass into the region
tomorrow as well. depending on how quickly clouds an clear across
lower michigan, parts of detroit metro and points south may be able
to make a run at 80 degrees. high pressure begins to gain greater
influence locally towards the evening bringing an end to
precipitation chances.

surface high pressure across the north central great lakes and nne
flow trajectories will limit the northward leak of convection with a
system moving across the ohio river valley on friday, though low end
pops (~30%) remain warranted south of the i-94 corridor. the rest of
the area will remain dry with cooler flow decreasing afternoon highs
for friday by a few degrees down to the mid 70s. there will be a
warming trend through the weekend as high amplitude ridge develops
across the central conus into early next week. the easterly winds on
sunday will mitigate the warming to some degree with temperatures
expected to climb solidly into the low-mid 80s for most of
southeast michigan for sunday.

long range models and ensembles offering at least moderate potential
for extreme heat, especially during the mid-week period which would
include several days with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints into
the 70s. ensemble and ai solutions point towards mid 90s becoming
achievable tues/wed translating to heat indices to 100 degrees or
greater. timing and duration of any convection riding around the
ridge will need to be monitored during this time which would impact
daily highs as is typical in these set ups.

marine...

a weak low pressure system will slowly trek across central lower
michigan this evening and tomorrow. this brings the potential for
some rain showers, potentially even some thunderstorms, throughout
this period. winds are expected to be relatively calm throughout
this period due to the overall weak pressure gradient of this low
pressure system. if any thunderstorms were to develop during this
time period they would be capable of locally higher wind gusts.
after this system departs our area a high pressure system is
expected to develop over our region throughout the weekend, bringing
warmer and calmer weather along with it.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...aa
marine.......zb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.