Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
563
fxus61 kcle 021823
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
123 pm est mon mar 2 2026

.what has changed...
overall, the forecast remains on track and significant changes were
needed with this update. there is still potential for a brief period
of freezing rain across nw pa and possibly ne oh early tuesday
morning, but confidence remains low.

&&

.key messages...
1) a brief period of freezing rain is possible across the
northeastern part of the area early tuesday morning, however
confidence and impacts remain low at this point.

2) a warmer and wet weather pattern is expected tuesday through the
weekend. nuisance flooding is possible in typical problem spots.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a warm front will begin to lift north from the ohio valley tonight
into tuesday and a shortwave will eject into the area early tuesday
morning. this will likely result in scattered light precipitation
lifting northeast towards the area late tonight into early tuesday.
a brief period of mixed precipitation or freezing rain remains
possible at the onset, although confidence in overall
precipitation chances and the resulting impacts remains low.
the precipitation will likely combat lingering low-level dry air
as it moves into the area, which could result in drier weather,
virga, and/or very light precipitation with more widespread
precipitation beginning after temperatures warm above freezing
after sunrise. the freezing rain potential will be higher if
precip starts earlier than currently forecast. surface
temperatures will also be quite marginal and will dictate
precipitation type; colder temperatures will result in a higher
likelihood of freezing rain. either way, the greatest likelihood
of freezing rain is across portions of interior nw pa
(primarily crawford county) and possibly portions of far
northeastern ohio. ice accumulations should be light (a trace to
maybe a few hundredths of an inch) and any resulting impacts
should improve as temperatures warm above freezing during the
day thursday. will need to keep an eye cams and
forecast/observed soundings; an sps or even a short-fused winter
weather advisory may be needed if the forecast trends more
pessimistic.

key message 2...
a warmer and wet weather pattern is expected tuesday through the
end of the week as a frontal boundary wavers across the region
and a series of disturbances track along the front. pops are
highest between tuesday and thursday with a period of lower pops
on friday before a cold front moves across the region at some
point during the weekend. the highest rain amounts will likely
occur across the southern portion of the area (generally south
of u.s. route 30) where total rainfall between tuesday and
thursday night could add up to 1.5 to locally 2+ inches.
elsewhere, most locations should receive up to 1 to 1.5 inches
of rain in the span of three days. in general, the flooding risk
remains relatively low, but can`t rule out minor flooding on
the more responsive creeks and streams primarily in the southern
part of the cwa and in poor drainage/urban areas. there may be
sufficient instability for thunderstorms later wednesday into
thursday and with the cold front over the weekend.

temperatures will trend warmer throughout the week. highs in
the 40s and lower 50s tuesday will give way to highs in the 60s
and possibly 70s friday into saturday. after tonight, low
temperatures will likely remain above freezing for several days.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the first half or so of
tonight. a warm front will lift into the ohio valley tonight and
tuesday, with lower ceilings and some rain spreading in across
most taf sites ahead of that front beginning early tuesday
morning. have mvfr ceilings spreading in to all taf sites early
tuesday morning, with ifr at mfd/cak/yng. guidance indicates
that ifr is possible farther north (particularly at fdy/cle/eri)
though with drier low-levels farther north, confidence is not as
high...this will be monitored. some mvfr vsby restrictions may
also accompany any rain, especially at mfd/cak/yng. have a
prob30 for -fzra at most locations through early tuesday, as air
temperatures will be around or just below freezing until
warming further tuesday morning. confidence in freezing rain is
not currently high enough for prevailing, as temperatures will
be marginal and initial rain will be light and may struggle to
reach the ground with dry antecedent conditions.

generally east-northeast winds at <10kt through early tuesday
will gradually shift more southeasterly tuesday morning.

outlook...non-vfr likely continues into tuesday night with rain.
occasional periods of rain late wednesday through saturday will
likely bring additional non-vfr conditions.

&&

.marine...
primarily light (15kt or less) east to northeast winds are
expected through wednesday evening across the lake. ice will
continue to want to drift west through wednesday evening. winds
gradually shift more east and then south wednesday night and
thursday as a warm front lifts towards and across lake erie.
winds then shift more south-southwest friday into the weekend. a
period of stronger southwesterly winds (to 20kt or so) is
possible friday or saturday. the wind shift will cause ice to
drift more north-northeasterly late week through the weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
824
fxus63 kiwx 021858
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
158 pm est mon mar 2 2026

.key messages...

- becoming unseasonably mild thursday through saturday with highs in
the 60s to around 70 degrees.

- an extended very wet period will start tuesday with periods of
rain and isolated thunderstorms.

- rises on rivers are expected. some rivers may eventually reach
action or flood stage late this week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 150 pm est mon mar 2 2026

the upper level pattern will become somewhat zonal into wednesday
morning, resulting in little change in sfc temperatures into tuesday
night with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s (coldest
tonight). a warm front will attempt to work north across indiana and
ohio over the next 24 to 48 hours, but will face a fair amount of
resistance with a lack of any deeper waves to help move it along.
models trends overall have been confining the better chances for
measurable rainfall to central/southern in and oh starting late
tonight and persisting into wednesday. that being said, we will
still reside on the northern fringe of the overrunning moisture
which may spell a period of lighter rainfall for areas mainly along
and south of us-30. uncertainty remains as to how fast the
lighter precip advances north while temperatures north of us-30
are near/below freezing late tonight into first thing tuesday
morning. as a result, wx grids still reflect a mention of
freezing rain and/or snow for a few hours in these area, but
impacts if any would be brief.

the first shot of more meaningful moisture and associated increase
in rain chances arrives wednesday night into thursday as a trough,
currently located in northern ca, works east to nebraska by 12z wed.
a modest increase in heights will allow the frontal boundary and
associated overrunning precipitation to work further north.
highest pops will reside in this period for the area with
rainfall tapering off by thursday evening.

the active pattern will continue as a deep upper low stalls out over
the sw u.s. an even stronger surge of warm and moist air will
commence with the warm front eventually working well north into the
area. a weaker northern stream wave will arrive, accompanied by a
cool front (more expecting a drop in dewpoints vs temperatures as it
passes). better chances for showers and even some thunderstorms
exists in this period with uncertainty on the best timing and
overall amounts of precip. as a result, expected precip chances in
this period to vary quite a bit in the coming days until models can
hopefully hone in on a better solution.

few if any hydro concerns are expected given the lower flow of the
rivers, low levels in lakes and dry ground waiting to soak up the
light to moderate rain rainfall. as we get later in the week and
beyond we will need to more closely monitor the situation as
repeated round of rainfall could cause issues (moreso with respect
to rivers and maybe some low areas vs more significant flooding).


&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1150 am est mon mar 2 2026

dry conditions and vfr ceilings prevail through early overnight,
but big changes are ahead for tuesday. clouds increase from
south to north and ceilings drop rapidly early tuesday morning.
by daybreak, expect mvfr to even ifr ceilings (especially at
kfwa) ahead of a warm front. scattered rain showers will be
possible as early as 12z, but with dry air aloft to overcome,
widespread rain holds off until just beyond the taf forecast
period. best chances for light to moderate rain on tuesday will
be at kfwa and south of us 30. in any showers, expect mvfr
visibilities and ifr ceilings.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...johnson

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
164
fxus63 kdtx 021719
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1219 pm est mon mar 2 2026

.key messages...

- potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the
forecast.

- there is a slight chance for a couple periods of freezing rain
tuesday morning and tuesday night.

- warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on tuesday
and wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.aviation...

region remains under the western edge of high pressure through today
and tonight maintaining vfr skies (either clear or cirrus) and light
east/southeast winds. lower level moisture increases early tuesday
as a frontal boundary stalls over the northern ohio valley offering
lowering ceilings through the day and a slight chance for patchy
drizzle mainly in the afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet tuesday morning,
medium to high by tuesday afternoon.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 am est mon mar 2 2026

discussion...

strong surface ridge sliding through the area overnight has resulted
in nearly clear skies with the exception of some mid/high cloud
streaming across the mi/oh border associated with a low pressure
system passing through. combined with a thermal trough aloft with
850mb temps around -15c has resulted in another night with favorable
radiational cooling. low has dropped to the low teens into the
single digits leading to a chilly start to the new week.

as the high passes to the east, we`ll begin to turn winds to the
southeast allow some warm air advection into the region aided by
increasing heights aloft as flow pivoting to zonal allows higher
heights into the region. with another day of unimpeded march sun on
top of that, we should be able to warm back into the mid 30s across
the area.

next period of potential weather arrives tuesday morning as weak
southern stream energy begins to reach the region within the zonal
flow aloft. surface front stalled to the south of the state will try
to lift northward into our southern counties but the elevated
portions of the front will be right overhead. models have been
consistent on keeping the bulk of the rain focused south of the
state tied more on the surface boundary but acknowledging the fact
ribbons of forcing aloft could produce some rain/drizzle further
north. easterly flow into se mi keeps a feed of dry air into the
region helping evaporate any attempt for elevated portions of the
front from activating. model soundings have offered little in the
way of saturation in the bl with deep layer of dry air above it
reducing the chance of saturating from top down. this is notable as
the day will start off sub freezing with dewpoints in the upper 20s
so any precip could be freezing rain/drizzle for a few hours before
temps warm up heading toward highs in the low 40s. local probs have
been falling for the last 24 hours in terms of chances of precip
occuring and chances of freezing rain/drizzle. will still advertise
for now centered around the morning commute. bettern chances for
rain come in the afternoon as we get the lead edge of broad mid
level wave racing through the area. could lead to enough mid level
saturation to survive through the 6-7kft of dry air below it. as the
rain chances come to an end wednesday morning, temps cool again down
to around freezing which could bring freezing drizle back into the
picture for a couple hours.

weak southern stream remain active through the rest of the week with
a possible lull in activity locally wednesday before the next
stronger compact wave ejects out of the west and track across
southern mi wednesday night into thursday. additional energy looks
to target the region this weekend. could all lead to a few days in a
row of periods of rain. the nature of zonal flow wavering about from
run to run leads to low confidence at this point but chances are for
a wet end of the week. the flow will also lead to a warming trend
with 50s and 60s in the forecast from thursday through the weekend.

marine...

strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the great
lakes region today as strong high pressure moves off the east coast
late in the day. with the increase in low level stability, it
appears winds will top out just around 25 knots over lake huron. a
weak low tracking through the northern ohio valley brings mostly
rain over lake st. clair and lake erie, with dry weather and light
winds returning wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns.
another warm low producing rain looks to be arriving on thursday.
easterly winds ahead of this low over the northern half of lake
huron look to be at least moderate (potential gusts to 25 knots),
but the increasing low stability should keep winds from getting much
stronger.

little if any cold advection behind the low thursday night will
result in light winds, with enough lingering low level moisture
around to potentially support low clouds and drizzle.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kdk
discussion...drk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.